TD223 , ^_
TD223A37
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT
OF
WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLANS
JANUARY 1977
U. S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20460
Environmental Protection
Region V, Library
23^' ^ov.ch Daarbom Street
Chicago, Illinois 6060'4
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NOTE
This document is not a replacement to the Act, the Regulations,
or official EPA policy statements. It is a supplement to these docu-
ments, to assist State and areawide agencies in responding to water
quality management program requirements. The guidance in this Handbook
does not constitute a uniform National EPA standard of acceptability.
Any clarification and specific conditions applicable to a State or
designated area should be discussed with the EPA Regional Offices.
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UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
DATE:FEB 8 B77
SUBJECT: Handbook on Environmental"Assessment of Water Quality Management Plans
.dmund Notzon, Acririg director
Water Planning QiyjAion (WH-554)
T0: All Regional Water Division Directors
ATTN: Regional 208 Coordinators
TECHNICAL GUIDANCE MEMORANDUM: TECH-28
Purpose
This memorandum transmits the recently completed report, "Environmental
Assessment of Water Quality Management Plans." It replaces the Draft
Handbook on Environmental Assessment of Water Quality Management Plans
which was issued in October 1976. This final report incorporates comments
received on the draft handbook and is intended for use by State and
Areawide agencies in the development of their water quality management
programs.
Background
The preparation of an environmental assessment for a water quality manage-
ment plan is a requirement under Section 208 of the Federal Water Pollution
Control Act Amendments of 1972. This handbook is designed to assist
managers and staff of planning agencies in assessing the natural and man-
made environmental impacts of alternative water quality management (WQM)
plan elements. The intent of this guidance is to emphasize the inter-
related nature of assessment and planning processes and to promote the use
of the assessment in judging alternatives as they are developed.
Most of the chapters in this handbook present information on assessment
methodologies, some of which provide very detailed outputs and require
fairly extensive inputs of time and money. It is not expected that each
WQM agency will need to use these sophisticated methodologies. The choice
of appropriate methodologies will depend in large part on the expected
impacts of the WQM plans. For example, if the implementation of the plan
may result in significant adverse air quality impacts, then it may be
necessary to use sophisticated air quality models to identify and assess
those impacts. Most of the chapters discuss various methodologies which
may be used so that an agency in conjunction with the regional office can
choose the methodologies most applicable to its program.
If you would like further information on the handbook, please contact
Bill Lienesch of the Program Development Branch (426-2522). Additional
copies are available from the Water Planning Division Library (755-6993).
Enclosure
EPA Form 1320-6 (Rev 3-76)
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PREFACE
The preparation of an environmental assessment for a water
quality management plan is a requirement under Section 208 of the
Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972. This Handbook
prepared by Centaur Management Consultants, Inc. under EPA Contract
Number 68-01-3195, provides guidance on integrating the major environ-
mental assessment questions with the planning process itself. The
environmental assessment process can cover an almost limitless number
of areas within the physical, social and economic environment.
However, to construct a general reference document for the most impor-
tant aspects of a water quality management plan, this Handbook focuses on
key assessment questions in the areas of: water quality, water quantity,
air quality, land use, regional economy, visual quality, ecology,
and other social impacts.
This Handbook was prepared by the Centaur staff including
Cheryl Dinneen, Jane Nowak, Paul Kolp, Marilyn Schule and Isabel
Reiff. Outside writing assistance was provided by Professors Leonard
Ortolano of Stanford University and Carl Carlozzi of the University
of Massachusetts. Many persons within EPA and 208 planning agencies
helped review drafts of this Handbook. David Aggerholm and William
Lienesch of the EPA Water Planning Division in Washington, D.C.
were very instrumental in guiding the document's overall design.
Michael L. Frankel
CENTAUR MANAGEMENT CONSULTANTS, INC.
11
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
PREFACE ii
INTRODUCTION , 1-1
WATER QUALITY AND QUANTITY IMPACT ASSESSMENT 2-1
LAND USE IMPACT ASSESSMENT 3-1
k
AIR QUALITY IMPACT ASSESSMENT « 4-1
ECOLOGICAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT 5-1
ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT 6-1
VISUAL QUALITY IMPACT ASSESSMENT 7-1
OTHER SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENTS 8-1
ill
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if
INTRODUCTION
The regulations guiding water quality management planning
under Section 208 of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments
of 1972 require the preparation of an environmental assessment as
part of the planning process. This Handbook is designed to assist managers
and staff of planning agencies in assessing the natural and man-made environ-
mental impacts of their recommendations for alternative water quality
management (WQM) plan elements. The intent of this guidance is to
emphasize the interrelated nature of assessment and planning processes
and to promote the use of the assessment in judging alternatives
as they are developed.
The environmental assessment is not a separate report
prepared after the WQM plan is completed. It is a process
integrated with the WQM planning process itself.
The final form of the environmental assessment should be determined
by the WQM planning agency in consultation with the EPA Regional
Office.
The managers of WQM planning programs are the primary intended
audience for this document. That is, the technical depth of the
material presented is designed to acquaint the manager with the issues
surrounding an environmental assessment*, the key questions to be
answered in terms of the WQM plan, and some of the techniques available
to conduct the assessment. It is assumed that the actual work of
conducting an environmental assessment will be undertaken by in-house
staff or outside support in the form of private contracts, agreements
with other public agencies, or contracts with academic institutions.
In any case, this Handbook should help the manager select the resources,
types of personnel, and levels of analysis appropriate for his area.
In addition, the Handbook will also be useful to those who are actually
conducting the assessment.
It is important to emphasize from the outset that the primary
function of a WQM plan is to improve the physical environment in accor-
dance with minimum levels of waste treatment technology mentioned by
PL 92-500. The major thrust of the assessment effort therefore must
begin with water related concerns as the focus. Trade-offs between en-
vironmental protection and economic development, for example, can occur
only after rather high levels of waste control technology have been applied.
In the context of this Handbook, the "environment" refers to the physical
environment (e.g., air, water, wildlife habitat), the social environment
(e.g., housing, culture), and the economic environment (e.g., per capita
income, employment). , ,
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Although the required content of an environmental assessment
is outlined in the regulations (40 CFR Parts 6, 130 and 131), the relative
emphasis placed on different elements of the assessment will vary
from place to place depending on the major issues in the area.
Because the needs of communities vary, this document has been divided
into chapters, each dealing with separate elements of the environment
(e.g., air, water, economy, etc.). The combination of these elements
into an overall assessment is left to the judgment of individual
planning agencies. In conducting this assessment, it is particularly
important that the public be involved both in identifying impacts
and their relative value to society. The public can help the planners
focus the investigations by identifying effects which are of particular
concern and warrant examination in detail. The public can also assist
in determining what tradeoffs should be made when evaluating the altern-
atives; that is, by prioritizing their objectives the public can help
the planner select the preferred plan. The role of publ'ic involvement
is discussed in greater detail in a separate EPA document entitled
Public Participation Handbook for Water Quality Management (dated
June, 1976).
Neither the level of detail nor the specific topics
covered in this Handbook are meant to suggest uniform re-
quirements for an environmental assessment. Each WQM
planning agency will have to determine what issues are
important in its area and develop an assessment process
(in consultation with the EPA Regional Office) applicable
to those issues.
It is unreasonable to expect that any single hand-
book or guideline can counsel a WQM planning agency on the
level of detail for its environmental assessment. Each area
and each community presents unique situations. The level
of detail to meet the environmental assessment requirements
of the 208 planning grant will have to be negotiated between
the planning agency and the EPA Regional Office.
Many areas of the environment have not been presented in
this Handbook (e.g., noise pollution). The exclusion of these areas
does not mean that they are not important in special cases. However,
the implementation of the WQM plan is not expected to produce major
impacts in these areas. If it does produce major impacts, the
environmental assessment must take these areas into consideration.
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REGULATIONS AND GUIDELINES
Section 208(b) (2) (E) of the Federal Water Pollution Control
Act Amendments of 1972 (FWPCAA) states that any plan prepared under
this section must include "the identification of ... the economic,
social and environmental impact of carrying out the plan . . . ." This
requirement is repeated in Section 40CFR Part 131.11 Regulations
for Preparation of Water Quality Management Plans.
EPA has published regulations establishing agency "policy and
procedure for the identification and analysis of environmental impacts
of EPA non-regulatory actions ...", 40CFR Part 6 Preparation of Environ-
mental Impact Statements. These regulations apply to water quality manage-
ment plans. Under these regulations, an "environmental assessment" must
be submitted to EPA by its grantee the designated planning agency or
State describing the environmental impact of a proposed action, (in this
case the action would be the implementation of a water quality management plan)
The EPA Regional Administrator then reviews the environmental assessment
to determine whether an EIS is required. If a significant adverse environ-
mental impact is likely to occur, a draft EIS is prepared by EPA and
distributed to interested or affected groups. After the recipients of the
draft have had time to comment, a final EIS is prepared incorporating their
comments. If an EIS is not necessary, a negative declaration is made accom-
panied by an environmental appraisal which describes the reasons for con-
cluding there will be no significant impact. The environmental appraisal
is essentially a brief form of the EIS. When an EIS is prepared, no admini-
strative action can be taken for at least 9^ days after the distribution
of the draft EIS. For a negative declaration, the time is 15 working days.
The information on which an EIS is based is supplied by the WQM"
planning agency in its environmental assessment, Subpart E of EPA's EIS
regulations deals specifically with the construction grants program and
the Section 208 water quality management program. This subpart contains
a detailed description of what should be included in an environmental
assessment:
Description of the existing environment without the
implementation of the WQM plan alternatives
Description of the future environment without the
implementation of the WQM plan alternatives
Sources of information used in the assessment
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Evaluation of alternative elements of the plan
Environmental impacts of the proposed implementation
of the WQM plan
Steps to minimize any adverse effects
Although an EIS will not be prepared for all WQM plans, an
environmental assessment addressing the above points will be required.
Other environmental laws, although not specifically directed
at the WQM plan's environmental assessment process, should be considered
in the WQM planning process. These include, but are not limited
to:
Safe Drinking Water Act (P.L. 93-523)
National Flood Insurance Act of 1968
Flood Disaster Protection Act 1973
Water Resource Planning Act of 1965
Wild and Scenic Rivers Act of 1968
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970
Solid Waste Disposal Act of 1972
The Endangered Species Act of 1973
Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972
National Environmental Policy Act of 1969
National Historic Preservation Act of 1966
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976
EPA has published four documents which provide a general review
of the environmental assessment process. They are:
Guidelines for State and Areawide Water Quality
Management Program Development*, Washington, D.C.
November, 1976.
Manual for Preparation of Environmental Impact Statements
for Wastewater Treatment Works, Facilities Plans, and 208
Areawide Waste Treatment Management Plans, Washington,
D.C., July, 1974.
A Review of Environmental Impact Assessment Methodologies,
Washington, D.C., April, 1974, (EPA 600/5-74-002),
Areawide Assessment Procedures Manual, Municipal Research
Laboratory,Office of Research and Development; Cincinnati,
Ohio, July, 1976, (EPA-600/9-76-014).
Hereafter referred to as "the Guidelines".
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The Guidelines identify the types of alternatives that
should be considered in the WQM plan for point and nonpoint controls.
These alternatives include the possibility of no substantial action
which should also be addressed. The planner must project over a 20
year period the possible effects of each alternative on the environ-
ment. Where possible these effects should be quantified but only
when the quantification represents an objective measurement and
can be related back to the goals of the community or nationally accepted
standards. Assigning numbers to essentially subjective judgments
is misleading and should be avoided. Also, unnecessarily detailed
numbers representing such things as wildlife counts should be avoided
unless they can be related directly to community goals. The margins
for error should be clearly indicated on all projections. In each
of the following chapters, a differentiation is made between clearly
identifiable and recognized standards, like National Ambient Air
Quality Standards, and more subjective measures such as the priorities
placed by a community on air quality. The community does not have
the option of selecting an alternative which causes a violation of
the NAAQS. However, once it is clear that the standards are not
violated, the community can decide how much deterioration will be
allowed (except in non-significant deterioration areas) .
The assessment process is iterative; that is, it entails
continual review and refinement. Adverse environmental effects identi-
fied by the assessment may be eliminated or reduced by changes in
components of the plan. It is therefore important, where possible, to
present findings in clear cause and effect terms, so as to assist
in the design of alternatives. The assessment should produce
some comparison of the various alternatives so that decision makers
can clearly see the advantages and drawbacks of each. These com-
parisons must also include the cumulative effects of plans across
all elements of the WQM plan. Chapter 14 of the Guidelines provides
one technique for an overall comparison of the alternatives. Additional
charts or other displays such as maps or matrices can be used to
illustrate the environmental effects of the plans.
Guidance in the National Environmental Policy Act calls for
identification of impacts under several evaluative titles: adverse,-
short term resource vs. long term productivity; unavoidable adverse
impacts; and irretrievable commitments of resources. Both the
direct and indirect impacts of alternative actions must be identified
and interpreted.
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Direct impact assessment is by far the simplest because direct
impacts usually occur at specific sites or to a specific segment of the
population. These impacts typically have such measurable characteristics
as the amount of landscape changed, particular physical or chemical alter-
ations to air or water, job losses or per capita income changes.
Indirect or secondary effects are considerably harder to estimate
with accuracy.* Indirect impacts are those which usually occur offsite,
or are expressed at a later time. In many instances indirect effects are
induced as part of desirable project or program outcomes. For instance,
the WQM plan may forecast a large improvement in the quality of surface
waters allowing for greater domestic, industrial, or recreational use of
water. Accomplishing this aim may result in further expansion of industrial
sites, residential and commercial areas, or the creation of new recreational
units in the area which may in turn cause increases in nonpoint source run-
off pollution, partially offsetting water quality gains from the project's
point source management. Likewise, increased attractiveness of water bodies
may induce more waterfront recreational use or create new uses, placing
greater stress on the shoreline and aquatic plants and animals.
Much of the detail in both direct and indirect impacts of WQM plan
alternatives will be investigated as a result of specific project recommenda-
tions such as wastewater treatment plants. The environmental assessment
of these plants is covered in separate guidance on Section 201 of the Act
including an EPA report entitled Guidance for Preparing a Facility Plan:
Municipal Wastewater Treatment Works_Construction Grants Program, May, 1975.
The environmental assessment process for a WQM plan, however, goes
beyond the examination of isolated plan elements. It provides a unique
opportunity to assess the cumulative effects of the combination of measures
proposed both throughout the designated area and outside the designated
area. The latter is particularly important in the case of neighboring WQM
areas where major activities proposed in one district may significantly effect
the other district. In such situations, coordination between WQM agencies
would be most advantageous.
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND THE PLANNING PROCESS
As previously discussed, the purpose of this Handbook is
to assist managers, staff and local planning officials in working
Manual for Estimating Selected Socioeconomic Impacts and Secondary Environ-
mental Impacts of Sewage Treatment Plant Construction and Operation. Dr.
Rae Zimmerman, U.S. EPA, Region II. New York, N.Y^, September, 1974.
Copies available from the Environmental Program Division, Region II, EPA
26 Federal Plaza, New York, N.Y. 10007.
1-6
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with the public to select the preferred elements of a WQM plan.
The environmental assessment should provide information on the po-
tential effects of plan alternatives on community goals and objectives.
The WQM plan is designed to achieve primarily one objective achieve-
ment and maintenance of water quality standards. However, the community
has other objectives it wishes to and must achieve at the same time (e.g.,
flood control, historic preservation, air quality). When one objective
can be reached only at the expense of another, decisions must be made con-
cerning relative priorities. The environmental assessment can assist
this decision-making process by clarifying the choices to be made. It is
therefore essential to include the public throughout the assessment process.
Table 1-1 illustrates the basic steps of the planning process
as described in Chapter 1 of the Guidelines. It also shows how the
environmental assessment process is inexorably related to the planning
process.
The first step in the planning process is to define the problem
or objective of the plan. For WQM plans, the main objective is achieve-
ment of water quality consistent with the 1983 goals of the Act.
Water quality is related to community objectives through water quality
standards which are defined in terms of beneficial uses. Sufficiently
high water quality must be maintained for each stream to meet water
quality standards and protect instream uses. The pollution problems
which prevent the achievement of this objective are then identified in
terms of their relative impact on water quality.
Before possible solutions can be formulated the constraints
on meeting water quality goals should be identified and the priorities
for solving water quality problems should be established (Step 2).
Constraints include, for example, technical limitations which can
make some of the goals unattainable for certain areas, or financial
constraints which make some solutions too costly. Community goals
and objectives also act as constraints in the sense that goals may
be conflicting. If one community goal is the development of a growing,
stable economic base, water pollution controls could be perceived
as adding unjustifiable burden on industry. If another goal is maintaining
a balanced budget while avoiding skyrocketing taxes, a capital intensive
waste treatment program may be viewed as unacceptable.
Presumably the desire to restore and preserve the natural
environment and minimize pollution is the objective of the WQM plan.
However, this same objective can act as a constraint, since elements
of the plan itself can have other adverse environmental effects.
The planner must have an understanding of the community's overall
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TABLE 1-1 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND
THE PLANNING PROCESS
PLANNING PROCESS
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT
Step 1 Identify problems in meeting
water quality goals of
Section 101 (a) (2) of the Act
Step 2 Identify constraints and
priorities
Identification of community
goals and objectives
related to environmental
considerations
Step 3 Identify possible solutions
Preliminary assessment of
possible environmental
effects
Collection of data
Step 4 Develop alternative plans
Detailed environmental
assessment
Step 5 Assess alternative plans
Development of possible mitigation
measures
Public involvement to determine
significance of environmental
effects in relation to community
goals and objectives
Decisions on environmental impact
Step 6 Selection of an areawide
plan
Documentation of the assessment
1-8
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objectives as plan alternatives are developed. Other existing plans,
such as comprehensive land use plans, existing environmental standards,
and existing laws, can be utilized as measures of the community's
goals. Through a public involvement program, more specific informa-
tion can be obtained from those concerned or affected by the proposed
plan.
Given these general constraints within which the plan is developed,
Step 3 is to identify all reasonable structural, regulatory, and manage-
ment control methods as possible alternative actions. As these al-
ternatives are developed, the planner should make a preliminary deter-
mination of what types of environmental problems can result from
the implementation of the alternatives being considered. This should
not be a detailed assessment, but a "first cut" to eliminate proposals
which are completely unacceptable and to identify the kinds of environ-
mental effects that may occur.
For this preliminary assessment,, a checklist can be useful
as a means of considering all possible areas of impact and noting
which are most likely. Several checklists have been developed including
one which appears in Chapter 13 of the Guidelines. The use of
checklists and other display and comparison techniques is discussed
in detail in A Review of Environmental Impact Assessment Methodologies,
EPA-600/5-74-002, April 1974.
This type of early preliminary assessment, besides filtering
out unacceptable alternatives, also focuses the task of data collection.
Instead of initially collecting data on every possible area of impact,
the planner can concentrate effort on those areas where the impact
is potentially more significant. It is important that the study
director coordinate exchange of information both within and among
impact study areas so that the full range of impact possibilities
may be understood. For clarity purposes, the Handbook deals with
each impact area separately. However, it is essential that the
interrelationship of impacts be understood. For example, the Land
Use Chapter only treats runoff in terms of soil loss; the Water
Quality chapter will have to translate this information into levels
of suspended solids in the water.
With alternative solutions identified and preliminary environ-
mental assessments performed, the planning agency should turn to
the development of alternative WQM plans (Step 4) incorporating the
solutions of Step 3. The detailed environmental assessment of these
alternative WQM plans will provide the basis for comparing alternatives
and selecting the final WQM plan. A careful examination of possible
structural and nonstructural measures which might mitigate or eliminate
significant adverse effects (e.g., developing and enforcing land use
regulations) should be presented to help in the selection of plan
alternatives.
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Following the development of alternative WQM plans, the planners
must assess the alternatives and their environmental implications (Step
5). This assessment must include a high level of public involvement
especially in the identification and discussion of mitigation measures and
unavoidable adverse impacts. In accordance with Section 208 of the Act,
the WQM planning agency is required to involve the public, including interest
groups, elected officials and other interested persons. The planning agency
will want to involve advisory groups in both formal (workshops and public
meetings) and informal (liaison, correspondence) ways. In many areas it
will be necessary for the planning agency to present plan alternatives and
environmental assessments as part of an education and information program,
and to obtain citizen participation in local policy development and decision-
making. Outputs of the planning agency, including their methodology, should
also be described at public meetings and made available in depositories.
It is the planner's responsibility to make the data comprehensible
to the public. Pie-charts, bar graphs and other graphic displays are often
useful ways of presenting aggregated data in publications and at public
meetings. It may also be useful to array the results of the environmental
assessment for each plan alternative by impacts in the social, technical,
political and legal/institutional areas. It will often be necessary to inter-
pret the numbers involved and restate them in terms more familiar (or relevant)
to the audience. Examples would include expressing financial expenses in
per capita terms, or explaining what the effect will be on the tax rate and
on the average tax bill. Expenditures for areawide purposes can be compared
to other public expenditures such as a new school or library if it is a
capital expense; or to policemen's salaries or the cost of trash collection if
it is an operating expense. This way of presenting data will also assist
the public in thinking about water quality management as a tradeoff issue.
The final step is the actual plan selection. The environmental
assessment at this point is a documented reference of the various environ-
mental impacts analyzed throughout the planning process.
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ADDITIONAL REFERENCES
Each of the following chapters provides references to further
reading on specific aspects of the environmental assessment process.
The list of references provided below is of a more general nature.
An Approach to Evaluating Environmental Social and Economic Factors
in Water Resources Planning. Water Resources Bulletin Vol. 8
No. 4 page 724. Aug. '72. Back issues available at $4.00 per
copy fron Dana Rhoads, American Water Resources Association,
St. Anthony Falls, Hydraulic Lab, Mississippi River at 3rd Ave.,
S.E., Minneapolis, Minn. 55414.
Direct Environmental Factors at Municipal Wastewater Treatment Works.
Ernest Leffel. U.S. EPA, Washington, D.C.
Intermedia Aspects of Air and Water Pollution Control. Report No.
EPA 600/5-73-003.U.S. EPA, Washington, D.C., August 1973.
Physical Impacts: A Guidance Manual for the Assessment of Physical
Impacts due to Highway Facility Improvements. U.S. Department
of Transportation. Washington, D.C., 1975.
Preparation of Environmental Impact Statements: Final Regulations.
U.S. EPA, 40 CFR Part 6. Federal Register, Volume 40, Number
72, Part III, April 14, 1975.
Preparation of Environmental Impact Statements; Guidelines, CEQ.
40 CFR Part 1500. Federal Register, Volume 38, Number 147,
Part II, August 1, 1973.
Secondary Impact of Regional Sewerage Systems, Volume I. Department
of Community Affairs, State of New Jersey. Trenton N.J.,
June 1975. Copies available from Division of State and
Regional Planning, 363 West State Street, Post Office Box
2768, Trenton, N.J. 08625.
Environmental Impact - Proceedings of the ASCE Urban Transportation
Division, May 21 - 23, 1973. American Society of Civil Engineers,
345 East 47th Street, New York, New York 10017.
Secondary Impacts of Transportation and Wastewater Investments:
Research Results. Report No. EPA 600/5-75-013. U.S. EPA,
Washington, D.C. July 1975. NTIS PB-246-085.
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Secondary Impacts of Transportation and Wastewater Investments;
Review and Bibliography. Report No. EPA 600/5-75-002. U.S.
EPA, Washington, D.C. January 1975. NTIS PB-246-084.
Environmental Planning and Assessments of Water Quality Management
Plans and Projects« EPA Region I Boston, Massachusetts 02203.
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WATER QUALITY AND QUANTITY IMPACT ASSESSMENT
Many of the elements of a WQM plan will have direct impacts on
both water quality and water quantity. That changes in water quality will
occur requires no elaboration, since, for the most part, WOM plan elements
are designed to improve water quality. Changes in water quality will
occur, for example, by the use of land to dispose of municipal wastewaters
formerly discharged to a stream. This could significantly change the rate
of streamflow if the wastewater represented a significant fraction of
the streamflow prior to the use of land disposal. Similarly, there may
be circumstances in which the collection and detention of urban runoff
could significantly influence the pattern of flood flows in a stream.
Table 2-1 lists some of the ways in which alternative WOM plan elements
may impact water quality and quantity.
This chapter presents guidance on the key questions and methods to
perform an assessment of the water quality and quantity impacts resulting
from the implementation of a water quality management plan.
Key Questions
How will the quality of streams or lakes be affected
by the implementation of the WQM plan in relation to the
goals?
How will groundwater be affected by the implementation
of the WQM plan?
2-1
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To what extent will high quality water be
preserved and protected from degradation?
To what extent will environmentally sensitive areas,
such as wetlands, be protected?
Have the effects of projected population and land
use changes been incorporated in the future estimates of
water quality?
Have the Federal and State water quality standards been
used as an environmental goal?
What present or projected water uses will be affected
by the implementation of the WQM plan?
Guidance in answering these questions is found not only within
this chapter but also in the following chapters on land use and ecology.
In addition, EPA has published the Areawide Assessment Procedures Manual
which also provides guidance in answering these questions. The assessment
process is highly interrelated with complex causes and effects that cannot
be dealt with one media or one issue at a time.
Many techniques discussed below in the context of water quality
and quantity impact assessment will be among the same techniques used to
form alternative plan elements. This is to be expected inasmuch as alter-
native plans are designed to cause water quality changes (or to preserve
high water quality) and these changes cannot be planned for without an
assessment of both water quality and quantity. Planning for water quality
changes, as a function of waste loads, requires an assessment of existing
and projected water quality and quantity that is similar to the assessment
of the impact of plan elements. Thus, much of the effort required in
conducting an assessment of water quality and quantity impacts may actually
be carried out in the course of formulating and designing the alternative
WQM plan elements. Also, much of the data collected and processed during
plan formulation will be useful in the assessment process and for the
public presentation of water quality and quantity impacts.
WATER QUALITY AND QUANTITY PARAMETERS
The Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972 provide
a goal for evaluating the impacts of WQM plan elements on water quality.
As elaborated in the EPA Guidelines for State and Areawide Water Quality
Management Program Development (Chapter 3), plans should be designed to meet
the national 1983 water quality goals for swimmable and fishable where attain-
able. This requirement for meeting the national goals has been (or will be)
Areawide Assessment Procedures Manual, EPA-600/9-76-014, July, 1976, Mun-
cipal Environmental Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Develop-
ment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, Ohio 45768.
2-3
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translated by each State into more specific physical, chemical or biological
requirements given in terms of the water quality standards (e.g., turbidity,
dissolved oxygen, fecal coliform). Thus, the assessment of the effects of
WQM plan elements on water quality must reflect the water quality parameters
(e.g., permissible levels of suspended solids) used in specific State standards.
In evaluating elements of the plan, the assessment should indicate the extent
to which the State standards (and national water quality goals) would be met
or progress made toward meeting standards if the plan were implemented. It
should also evaluate the associated ecological impacts of doing so.
The conceptual basis for evaluating changes in water quantity and
changes in water quality for which standards do not exist, (e.g., ground-
water quality) is less straightforward. In these instances the parameters
that should be used in conducting the impact assessment are those that
indicate the extent to which current and projected water uses will be
attained (e.g., drinking water supplies). It is not sufficient to report
the results of such impact assessments in terms of changes in various
physical, chemical and biological indicators. In order that the impact
assessment be useful in decision-making, it is necessary that these para-
meter changes be reported in terms of how they will influence the amount
of water available for various uses.
A report entitled Quality Criteria for Water and issued by the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency (July, 1976) includes information on various
physical, chemical and biological indicators and their relationship to various
categories of water use.
CONDITIONS FOR WATER QUALITY ANALYSIS
"Design Conditions" are of critical importance in conducting an
impact assessment of future water quality levels. Most State water quality
standards specify a particular low streamflow condition to be used as
the basis for designing point source controls and for reporting estimates
of future water quality. In contrast, design conditions relevant to
nonpoint sources have generally not been specified. Moreover, because the
nonpoint sources often exert their principal effects during wet weather
conditions, the appropriate design conditions for nonpoint sources might
well be different from the design conditions for point sources. It is
necessary that the design conditions used in making estimates of future
water quality be clearly indicated when they are used.
The EPA Guidelines emphasize the design conditions likely to pre-
sent the greatest stress to fish, shellfish and aquatic wildlife in the
study area. In choosing the critical design conditions, traditional
stream analysis often makes use of a low flow/high temperature design
condition (e.g., the once in 10-year, 7-day low flow). This flow condi-
tion may be appropriate for a steady-state stream analysis involving
constant rates of point source pollutant discharge. However, choice of design
2-4
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flow conditions may also take account of such factors as ice cover and
seasonal point source discharge which may cause more severe stress on
life in the stream than occurs at low flow.
Wet weather or high flow conditions may be appropriate for analy-
sis of nonpoint discharges and such intermittent point source discharges as
storm sewers. Such factors as intensity and duration of rainfall, time since
previous rainfall, pollutant accumulation rates (including effect of
cumulative build-up of pollutants on bottom life in streams), and stream
flow previous to rainfall are factors which affect pollutant loading and
resulting water quality. There are no commonly accepted procedures for
choosing design conditions based on these factors. Water quality pro-
blems which accumulate over time, such as those caused by sediment or
nutrients, should be considered by addressing the total mass loads over
an extended period of time rather than analyzing the design condition.
Therefore, a range of flow, meterological and seasonal conditions
should be considered in choosing design conditions. In general, for
point sources, continuous discharges present the worst pollution under
low stream flow conditions; for nonpoint sources, critical conditions
will be rainfall-related, but may occur under a variety of flow conditions.
WATER QUANTITY AND QUALITY ASSESSMENT METHODS
The assessment of water quality and quantity is usually associated
with some technique that involves the use of a model. The word "model"
as it is used here has a very general definition. It refers to simple
numerical formulas, the utilization of which requires nothing more than
pencil and paper, as well as to highly developed packages of complex
mathematical expressions requiring the use of a digital computer.
Most of the techniques discussed in the sections on estimating
changes in water quality and quantity involve the use of mathematical models
to forecast changes. As a matter of convenience, some of the terms commonly
employed in describing such models are introduced below. Mathematical
models used in water quality and quantity impact assessment consist of
equations based on principles used in physics, chemistry and other sciences
and on the analysis of much empirical data. A modeling exercise involves
the specification of "inputs" and the use of the model to generate "outputs".
For example, the inputs for a model commonly used to forecast stream dissolved
oxygen (DO) levels consist of information characterizing the stream and
the waste loads entering the stream. The model consists of an equation
that transforms the inputs into outputs, i.e., the dissolved oxygen levels
downstream of the waste loads.
Before a model to forecast dissolved oxygen can actually be used with
Evaluation of Water Quality Models: A Management Guide for Planners, EPA
Report Number (600/5-76-004)
2-5
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confidence it must be "calibrated". This generally involves using inputs
and outputs corresponding to an observed (or historical) condition to
refine model components (or, jpore typically, to estimate some of the inputs)
so that the model outputs match "reasonably well" with the relevant observed
output conditions. A portion of the historical record not used for cali-
bration purposes is sometimes used for "verification" (or validation")
purposes; this involves use of a calibrated model to yield outputs which
are then compared with relevant -observed outputs. The extent to which the
forecasts agree with the observed data provides an indication of the
models' validity.
As a practical matter, the importance of model calibration and
verification cannot be overestimated. It requires that data representing
model inputs and outputs over some historic period of record be available.
Indeed, much of the effort required in using well established models that
are widely available in the form of computer programs relates to these
calibration and verification steps. When no data are available, the use
of these models may still be possible. Under these cricumstances, the re-
quisite input data for the model can be based on professional judgement,
the use of handbook-type information and a limited program of field sampling.
Clearly the result of such a modeling exercise may represent little more
than an educated guess of future water quality or quantity conditions.
In using a mathematical model for prediction purposes, the inputs
are representative of some future expected condition (e.g., point sources
after wastewater treatment plants are implemented) and it is assumed
that the model provides an appropriate description of how inputs are trans-
formed into outputs under these future conditions. The level of confidence
placed in the predictions depends on the extent to which the model has
a history of yielding outputs that correspond closely to those actually
observed.* The water quality and quantity models relevant to water quality
management planning vary greatly in terms of their extent of verification.
Some such models have been used for generations, and their outputs are
accepted with some confidence. Others are in the "research and development"
stage and have not been subject to verification under a wide variety of
circumstances. For the most part, the various models are generally applied
by hydrologists (water quantity models), and sanitary engineers (water
quality models). The discussion that follows indicates how various water
quantity and quality models might play a role in both the development of
WQM plan alternatives and in the assessment of the plan and where more
detailed information on the use of various modeling techniques can be
obtained. The discussion opens with quantity models since the outputs
of these models are a necessary input to the quality models. In some
cases, the models incorporate both quality and quantity components.
I
BASELINE DEVELOPMENT
Before describing the methods available for estimating changes
in water quantity and quality as a result of alternative WQM plan elements,
*It is important to note that "good" models in unskilled hands can yield
bad results and relatively untried models with sound professional judgment
can yield good results.
2-6
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it is important to establish a baseline of water quantity and quality
conditions. The baseline can be used as a comparison against the
impacts of alternative elements in the WQM plan. There are several sources
of data available from which to construct baseline conditions. These include:
River Basin Plans produced by the States under the
requirements of Section 303 (e) of the FWPCA Amendments
of 1972.
A description of water quality produced annually by the
States under the requirements of Section 305(b) of the
FWPCA Amendments of 1972.
National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES)
information prepared by dischargers and available through
the State or EPA under the requirements of Section 402 of
the FWPCA Amendments of 1972.
Ongoing waste treatment facilities plans prepared locally
under the construction grant requirements of Section 201
of the FWPCA Amendments of 1972.
Previous waste treatment facility plans prepared locally
under 18CFR and Section 3(c) of the Water Quality Act of
1965.
Surface water records prepared annually for each state by the
U.S. Geological Survey includes extensive water quantity data
and some water quality data as well.
Urban Studies programs prepared by the U.S. Army Corps
of Engineers.
Flood Plain information prepared by the U.S. Geological
Survey, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and HUD's
Federal Insurance Administration.
Water pollution and quality data information, Storage and
Retrieval (STORET) system maintained by the Environmental
Protection Agency.
State and local water supply studies and wastewater
management studies.
These and other related sources of information can provide a baseline
inventory of pollution sources and water quantity and quality conditions.
Many of these sources contain projections of these conditions which will
provide a baseline projection without the implementation of the WQM plan
alternatives. For the information sources that contain no such projections.
the methods described in the following sections on estimating changes in
2-7
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water quality can be used to project conditions without the implementation
of the WOM plan alternatives.
WATER QUANTITY IMPACT ASSESSMENT
The "hydrologic cycle" is the term used to describe the movement
of water: from the atmosphere to the earth (precipitation); along and
beneath the earth's surface; and from the earth to the atmosphere (evap-
oration and transpiration). Elements of a WQM plan involving point source
controls can significantly affect the hydrologic cycle by, for example,
relocating points of discharge of wastewater flows and modifying large
areas of land (e.g., when land disposal of wastewater is employed). The effects
of nonpoint source controls on the hydrologic cycle may be even more sig-
nificant. For example, to the extent that land use controls and land
management techniques are employed, the possibilities for bringing about
significant changes in land surface characteristics are major. Another
example relates to the collection and detention of storm runoff. Here
also, the changes in the hydrologic cycle can be quite dramatic.
The assessment of how particular WQM plan elements affect the
hydrologic cycle may require that the effects of plans on the relation-
ship between precipitation (typically rainfall) and runoff be analyzed.
It also may require that the effects of plans on the existing natural
and man-made drainage patterns be examined. Both types of effects may
need to be examined in an integrated way, and this type of examination
can be made using computerized watershed simulation models. By way,?
of introduction to such models, the discussion below provides back-
ground information and indicates the portions of such models that are
likely to play a critical role in assessing the changes associated
with the implementation of WQM plans. In choosing a model it is generally
recognized that the simplest procedures which can produce acceptable
results should be used. Simple procedures are often used at the out-
set to produce an understanding of the general behavior of the system
and more sophisticated techniques are then used to produce more detailed
information where necessary.
Rainfall-Runoff Relations
A water particle reaching the ground during precipitation may
find its way to a watercourse by any one of three principal routes: sur-
face runoff (overland flow), interflow (lateral movement in soil) and
groundwater flow. In describing the flow contributing to a watercourse,
a two-part division is often used, namely, groundwater (or base) flow
and storm runoff. The latter consist of both interflow and surface runoff.
The measure used to describe water quantity is the rate of flow
at a given location and over a given time period. The rate of flow (re-
ferred to as "discharge" or "flowrate") is generally expressed in units
2-8
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of cubic feet per second (cfs). The time period involved depends on
the purpose of the analysis; for some purposes it may be sufficient to
estimate changes in average annual or monthly flowrates, whereas for
others, the peak flowrate over a short time period (e.g., hours) may be
called for.
Elements of a WQM plan that significantly affect the land surface
can alter the distribution of precipitation between surface runoff, inter-
flow and groundwater. Two of the key variables that influence this dis-
tribution are: infiltration, the passage of water through the soil surface
into the soil; and depression storage, the water retained in puddles,
ditches and other depressions in the soil surface.
Perhaps the least sophisticated approach to estimating the effects of
land surface changes on surface runoff involves the use of the so-called
"rational formula". This formula uses a direct relationship between flow rate
in cfs and the rainfall intensity in inches per hour and the drainage area in
acres. The coefficient in this direct relationship is the runoff coefficient
expressing the ratio of the rate of runoff to the rate of rainfall. Details
regarding the application of the rational formula, including circumstances
under which it is appropriate, are given in textbooks on hydrology. Although
the rational formula has been shown to be deficient in all but the most uncom-
plicated cases involving very small watersheds, it continues to be widely used
because of its simplicity and because it utilizes input data that is often
easily obtainable.
More sophisticated analyses of the effects of land surface changes
on the relationship between rainfall and runoff involve the concept of
a hydrograph, a plot of water flowrate versus time at a particular location.
Such analyses, which account for changes in land surfaces on infiltration
and depression storage, are embodied in the computer simulation models
discussed in a latter section.
Land surface modifications resulting from alternative elements of
a WQM plan can have a significant effect on the characteristics of surface
runoff. The increase of impervious area, a common result of urbanization,
increases the peak flow and decreases the time during which peak flow occurs.
In addition to increasing surface runoff, increases in the extent of impervious
area may also affect groundwater recharge and the extent to which ground-
water can be expected to contribute to streamflow during low flow periods.
Groundwater recharge rates may also be affected by modification to existing
drainage networks caused by alternative WQM plan elements.
Routing of Flows to Stream Channels
Elements of a WQM plan may influence water quantity by affecting
the rate at which water is transmitted across the land to stream channels.
2-9
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This may be especially significant where plan elements involve the instal-
lation of sewer systems, major changes in natural drainage patterns by
means of land use changes, or both.
There are a wide variety of methods that can be used to examine
the effects of changing the existing drainage pattern on flowrates, or
more precisely, on the hydrographs resulting from a given precipitation
event. These methods, typically referred to as flood routing procedures,
estimate various characteristics of runoff as it passes over the land
surface and through natural and man-made drainage networks. The methods
generally take, as given, a hydrograph representing inflow to an area
and compute the hydrograph representing the associated outflow from the
area.
All flood routing techniques rest on one form or another of the
so-called "equation of continuity", i.e., inflow to a given area minus
the outflow from the area equals the change in storage within the area.
The continuity equation is generally solved simultaneously with a second
equation. The various forms 1 hat are used for this second equation are
what distinguishes the many available flood routing techniques.
A widely used technique, the Muskingum method, employs the equation
of continuity together with a direct relationship between storage within
a reach (or area) and the inflow and outflow to and from a reach (or area).
The coefficients in this relationship are a storage time constant and
a weighting factor. The values of the coefficients are computed using
observed inflow and outflow hydrographs. The values are then used to
transform an expected future inflow hydrograph to its associated outflow
hydrograph.
More sophisticated approaches to the flood routing problem involve
solving the equation of continuity together with the so-called "equation
of motion" (i.e., an expression for the law of conservation of momentum).
These approaches can be used to route flows in a wide variety of physical
systems; however, they generally require the use of a digital computer
to solve the equations of motion and continuity.
Descriptions of the more commonly used routing procedures are
given in textbooks on hydrology. One or another of the various routing
procedures is typically employed as a component of the watershed simulation
models discussed in a later section.
Groundwater Flows
Changes in surface water flows can influence the levels of ground-
water tables. Increases in the extent of impervious area can reduce ground-
2-10
-------
water recharge by reducing direct infiltration of precipitation. Ground-
water recharge also may be decreased by drainage works which divert stream
flows from recharge areas and/or reduce natural stream-bed recharge.
The latter can occur when drainage works include the lining of natural
stream channels and/or the use of storm sewers. In addition, groundwater
recharge may be decreased if the time period during which flooding occurs
decreases as a consequence of changes in drainage networks and changes
in the extent of impermeability. For aquifers underlying flood plain
lands, flood flows can be an important source of recharge water.
Changes in the quantity of surface water available for recharge
can be estimated using the above mentioned techniques for estimating changes
in surface water flows. Given the estimated changes in flows available
for recharge, it may then be possible to estimate changes in groundwater
flows. This typically involves the application of the law of conservation
of mass and Darcy's law, a relationship between the movement of ground-
water and various aquifer characteristics (e.g., the coefficient of per-
meability, and the slope of the groundwater table). Details regarding
the use of mathematical models to analyze groundwater flows are given
in textbooks on groundwater hydrology.
Although highly sophisticated models for estimating the changes
in groundwater flow exist, they may be difficult to apply. Aside from
the cost of conducting a mathematical modeling study effort, the data required
to characterize groundwater aquifers (e.g., to estimate the coefficient
of permeability) may not be available for the aquifer in question. Because
a data-gathering program can be expensive to carry out, it may not be
feasible to obtain the requisite data within the time frame of WQM plan
preparation.
Computerized Watershed Simulation Models
In instances where the effects of a WQM plan on water flow rates
are expected to be significant, it may be appropriate to employ one of
the many existing computerized watershed simulation models. Many of these
models allow for the integrated analysis of changes in rainfall-runoff
relations and modifications in drainage networks. At least one such model,
the Hydrocomp Simulation Program (HSP), also allows for an analysis of the
effects of WQM plan elements on groundwater recharge. Such computerized
watershed simulation models provide the basis for an evaluation of the
effects of implementing the WQM plan elements on water quantity.
Computerized watershed simulation models have been formulated
on the supposition that some elements of the hydrologic cycle are sufficiently
well understood to provide the basis for a general representation of the
2-11
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movement of water within a watershed.
Computerized watershed simulation models, must be calibrated to
fit the circumstances of the particular watershed under study. This is
done using data gathered in connection with past hydrological events (e.g.,
inflow and outflow hydrographs associated with past floods) and the par-
ticular physical characteristics of the watershed (e.g., soils, topography).
The calibration should, in principle at least, be followed by a verification
exercise in which the model's predictive abilities are formally tested.
Often, however, there is a paucity of data, and the data that does exist
is used entirely for model calibration. Model validity is often assumed
on the basis of experiences in using the model for forecasting under other,
similar circumstances.
There are literally dozens of different watershed simulation models
that have been programmed for solution on digital computers. Consequently,
a complete overview of available models is beyond the scope of these guide-
lines. Wide ranging "user-oriented" overviews of available models have
been prepared.* These reports contain summary information on the following
aspects of computer models relevant to forecasting changes in water flows
that may result from WQM plan elements: computer language and hardware
requirements, availability, previous applications, strengths, weaknesses,
limitations of use, input data requirements, outputs provided and sources
of additional information.
Table 2-2, which contains only a small fraction of the information
summarized by Brown, makes note of four of the more widely used computerized
watershed simulation models that may be useful for assessing the impacts
of WQM plans. Two of these, the MIT Catchment Model and the Hydrocomp
Simulation Program, are available from private consulting firms; the other
two are available from government agencies. The Table provides a brief
indication of how these models can be used and contains sources of additional
information.
Hydrocomp, Inc., 1975 Hydrocomp Simulation Program Operations Manual,
4th Edition, Palo Alto, CA.
Brandstetter, Albin, August, 1974, Comparative Analysis of Urban
Stormwater Models, Battelle Memorial Institute, presented at the
Short Course Applications of Storm Water Management Models, Univer-
sity of Massachusetts, August, 1974.
Brown, J.W. ejt al^. , 1974, Models and Methods Applicable to Corps of
Engineers Urban Studies, Miscellaneous Paper - 74-8, U.S. Army Engi-
neers Waterways Experiment Station, Hydraulics Laboratory, Vicksburg,
MS.
2-12
-------
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The models mentioned in Table 2-2 give some indication of the
enormous range of watershed simulation models currently available. Of the
computer-based models noted, the Hydrocomp Simulation Program is perhaps
the most ambitious in terms of the range of issues that can be analyzed, the
length of continuous simulation that can be provided, and the extent of data
resources required. The Urban Runoff Model is perhaps the least sophisticated
of the four. With the exception of MITCAT which is being improved at this
time, each of the models noted in the table is capable of forecasting the
quality of surface runoff; this aspect of the models is taken up in the
section below on water quality impacts. Further details on computerized
watershed models can be obtained by consulting the references cited in
Table 2-2, and more generally, by consulting recent textbooks on hydrology.
WATER QUALITY IMPACT ASSESSMENT
Elements of a WQM plan related to point and nonpoint source are
designed to effect changes in water quality. The specific parameters
used in assessing effects on water quality should include parameters con-
tained in the relevant State water quality standards. Although standards
differ between States, there are a number of parameters commonly used
in assessing water quality.
For point sources involving municipal wastewaters, the water quality
parameters commonly used to characterize effluents are: biochemical oxygen
demand (BOD), total dissolved solids (TDS), suspended solids (SS), pH, coliform
bacteria, residual chlorine, and compounds of nitrogen and phosphorous.
Detailed discussions of these parameters are available in EPA's Quality
Criteria for Water, July 26, 1976 and standard textbooks on sanitary
engineering. The parameters used in characterizing industrial processes
are generally determined by the nature of the industrial process involved.
Details are given in specialized textbooks on industiral wastewater treat-
ment methods.
Water quality parameters relevant to nonpoint sources have been
described in the following categories of nonpoint sources: urban storm
runoff, agriculture, silviculture, mining and construction. Table 2-3
Methods for Identifying and Evaluating the Nature and Extent of_jSIonpoint
Sources of Pollutants, EPA Report Number 430/9-73-014.
Sartor, J.D. and Boyd, G.B., 1972, Water Pollution Aspects of Street
Surface Contaminants, EPA Report No. R2-72-081
Sartor, J.D. and Boyd, G.B., 1975, Water Quality Improvement Through
Control of Road Surface Run-off, Water Pollution Control in Low
Density Areas; Proceedings of a Rural Environmental Engineering Confer-
r_ence, University Press of New England, Hanover, N.H., pp. 301-316.
Urban Stormwater Management and Technology: An Assessment, EPA Report
Number 670/2-74-040.
Methodology for the Study of Urban Storm Generated Pollution and Control,
EPA Report Number 600/2-76-145.
2-14
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Table 2-3 - Principle Water Quality Parameters Affected by
Nonpoint Sources*
WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS
CATEGORIES OF NONPOINT SOURCES
Solids (total and suspended)
and sediment loads
Agriculture (especially cropland),
construction, surface mining,
silviculture, urban land, landfill/land
disposal activities
Biochemical oxygen demand j
Salinity (total dissolved
solids)
Crop debris, livestock wastes,
forest litter, petroleum wastes
used in construction, urban land, land-
fill/land disposal activities
Irrigation return flows, neutralized
acid mine drainage
Acidity
Heavy metals (e.g. , lead,
mercury, zinc, arsenic)
Coliform bacteria
Nutrients (compounds of
nitrogen and phosphorous)
Pesticides
Acid mine drainage (especially coal
mines)
Mining operations, hard rock mine
drainage
Livestock wastes, landfill /land disposal
activities
Fertilizers, livestock wastes,
urban land, landfill/land disposal
activities
Agriculture, silviculture, construction
Based largely on information presented by EPA in Methods for
Identifying and Evaluating the Nature and Extent of Nonpoint
Sources of Pollutants (EPA-430/9-73-014).
2-15
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provides general information on parameters commonly used to characterize
water quality impacts from nonpoint sources.
A fundamental issue in assessing water quality impacts concerns
how the concentration of a given pollutant (in both time and space) is
affected by elements of a proposed WQM plan. The state-of-the-art in
making quantitative forecasts of such effects varies greatly for the dif-
ferent water quality parameters. The distribution of some parameters,
notably sediments, TDS, BOD, dissolved oxygen (DO) and coliform bacteria,
has been studied for several decades and can be estimated using well esta-
blished quantitative methods. The distribution of other parameters, parti-
cularly the compounds of nitrogen and phosphorous, has been extensively
studied in the past decade. There are a number of ongoing research efforts
aimed at developing mathematical models to forecast the behavior of compounds
of nitrogen and phosphorous in water courses, and to forecast the effects
of such behavior on aquatic ecosystem variables like algae and zooplankton.
Finally, the distribution of some water quality parameters, e.g., heavy
metals and pesticides, is so complex that mathematical models that yield
reliable forecasts do not yet exist.
Another important characteristic of the state-of-the-art of water
quality forecasting concerns the notion of time. The simplest and most widely
used forecasting techniques are those which deal with point sources dis-
charging into natural watercourses under steady state conditions (i.e.,
waste loads and receiving water characteristics are assumed to be constant
over time). More sophisticated techniques have been developed over the
past decade for dealing with non-steady state conditions, e.g., waste
loads that exhibit cyclic variations and discharge into receiving waters
with time-varying characteristics. This aspect of nonpoint sources, together
with the fact that nonpoint sources have only been subject to intensive
study for about a decade, significantly complicates the task of assessing
changes in water quality associated with nonpoint source controls.
A final characteristic of the state-of-the-art of water quality
forecasting relates to the type of receiving water involved. The most
highly developed techniques involved forecasting the effects of a change
in waste input discharged directly to a natural water course; the least
highly developed techniques involve the water quality of surface runoff
passing over nonpoint sources. Even within the highly developed techniques
treating the effects of point sources discharging to water courses, there
are striking differences in the ability to forecast. The simplest, and
most well understood water courses are streams; in these instances the
transport of pollutants can reasonably be assumed to be dominated by the
average flow of the stream, and not by dispersion effects. Where dispersion
effects are significant, as in the case of estuaries and lakes, the modeling
2-16
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task requires increased sophistication. For complex estuary and lake
systems, the forecasting of water quality changes may not be possible
without a major effort. In this case the assessment of alterna-
tive elements of the WQM plan may have to rely on professional judgment
rather than a modeling analysis.
Quality of Storm Runoff
A thorough review of available techniques for forecasting the
quality of storm runoff and urban runoff has been prepared by EPA, and
others (see citation on p. 2-14). These documents provide background
materials that are essential to forecasting water quality changes associ-
ated with storm runoff. One of the central themes in these reports is
that sediment plays a principal role in estimating the quality of storm
runoff. This is especially true when the followinging nonpoint sources
are involved: agriculture, silviculture, construction and urban land.
Sediment represents a pollutant itself (suspended solids) and plays a
pivotal role in the transport of other forms of pollution (e.g., BOD).
There are virtually dozens of quantitative models that have been
developed to forecast sediment yield, especially the sediments from agri-
cultural lands. For the most part, these methods estimate sediment yield
from a given area over a fairly long time period (e.g., a month or year)
and do not correlate the sediment yield from a given area with water quality
in natural water courses. An illustration of the techniques available
is provided by the "Universal Soil Loss Equation" (USLE), which is widely
used in estimating soil erosion from pervious areas. The USLE provides
an estimate of the annual soil loss per unit area as a function of several
factors describing soil type, slope, etc. It's usefulness is
limited however by factors such as lack of data and inability to predict
water quality.
Three of the four models listed in Table 2-2 can be used to estimate
various water quality parameters for storm runoff. (The one exception,
the MIT Catchment Model, is currently being extended to include water quality.)
The water quality output from these models takes the form of "pollutographs",
i.e., plots of water quality parameter levels versus time at a given location.
One of the major difficulties in using these models, aside from the fact that
they have not been widely verified, is that the data required in "calibrating"
for a given watershed is often unavailable; such data must include both
quantity and quality information for individual short term storm events.
The paucity of such data has long been recognized as a key factor limiting
the development of models to forecast the quality of storm runoff.
Quality of Streams
In sharp contrast to the task of forecasting the quality of storm
2-17
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runoff, the task of forecasting changes in steady state stream quality
caused by changes in some types of waste inputs is relatively straight-
forward. This is the case for pollutants that do not decay, or for pol-
lutants like BOD that can be assumed to decay in accordance with a simple
"first order" reaction, i.e., a reaction in which the rate of decay is
considered to be proportional to the concentration of the substance.
Of the various situations involving the estimation of stream quality
changes, the simplest is the case of a constant source of "conservative",
i.e., non-decaying waste (e.g., total dissolved solids in irrigation
return flows) entering a stream flowing with a constant rate of discharge.
In this instance, as in all assessments of water quality in natural water-
ways, the law of the conservation of mass plays a central role. The mass
balance equation for this case indicates that the mass of substance entering
a given stream segment equals the mass of substance leaving the segment.
The principal result is an equation giving the downstream concentration
of the conservative substance in terms of the flows and concentrations
of the waste source and the stream flow entering the segment.
The next most sophisticated case is a steady state situation invol-
ving a single point source emitting a pollutant that can reasonably be
assumed to decay in accordance with a first order reaction (e.g., BOD,
coliform bacteria). In this instance, the equation for the law of conser-
vation of mass can be solved to give a relationship that indicates how
the concentration of water pollutant in the stream varies with changes
in the waste input, stream velocity and distance downstream from the point
of waste discharge.
The next level of sophistication in the assessment of changes
in stream quality involves water quality parameters that can only be esti-
mated by solving a coupled set of equations. The most common example
involves the estimation of dissolved oxygen and requires the simultaneous
solution of two mass balance expressions, one for DO and one for BOD.
For the case in which steady state conditions prevail and the
only significant oxygen sources and sinks are atmospheric reaeration and
BOD, respectively, the solution is the widely used "Streeter-Phelps" equation.
This type of analysis of BOD and DO has been extended to deal with far
more complex situations in which the following have an influence on DO:
scouring and sedimentation of organic materials, benthal deposits of
oxygen demanding materials, and the respiration and photosynthesis of
plant life.
2-18
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The use of the "Streeter-Phelps" equation has become so widely
accepted, that a manual* has been prepared providing basic data and graphical
solution procedures. This manual permits the rapid computation of estimates
of pollutant concentrations for conservative substances and for water quality
parameters like DO, BOD and coliform bacteria under steady state conditions.
For situations that require the estimation of changes in the afore-
mentioned water quality parameters in complex settings (e.g., nonsteady
state conditions), it is common to employ computer models that consist
of general solutions to the relevant mass balance equations. An example
is provided by QUAL-1, a very general model. To apply QUAL-1 to any
particular stream system it is necessary to calibrate the model and to
provide the relevant input parameters characterizing expected future con-
ditions of stream geometry, waste inputs, decay rates, etc. The outputs
from QUAL-1 consist of temporal and spatial description of one or more
of the following: conservative substances, BOD, DO and temperature.
Quality of Estuaries
Concern for estuaries and their water quality is heightened by
the great biologic fertility of the waters, where sweeps of the tides
mix salt water with fresh water twice a day. In analyzing the water quality
impacts of a WQM plan that encompasses an estuary, the assessment should
concentrate on the biological parameters that are important in characteri-
zing breeding areas. This assessment is made more complicated than fresh
water bodies by the impact of salt water and the complex motion of the
estuarine waters.
The analysis of the quality changes in estuaries resulting from
changes in waste inputs is very similar in concept to the analysis of
quality changes in streams. In both streams and estuaries mass balance
equations play the central role. The analysis of estuaries is more complex
because the mass balance equations must account for the existence of two
significant mechanisms of pollutant transport. One of these is transport
via the average motion of the water flow, also know as "advection". It
Hydroscience, Inc., 1971 Simplified Mathematical Model of Water Quality,
prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.
Texas Water Development Board, 1971 Simulation of Water Quality in Streams
and Canals; Theory and Description of the QUAL-1 Math Modeling System, Austin,
Texas
2-19
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is generally considered the only significant transport mechanism in the
analysis of stream quality. The second is "dispersion"; i.e., the spread
of pollutants caused by turbulent diffusion, velocity gradients, tidal
effects and density differences.
As in the case of the analysis of quality in streams, the analysis
of quality in estuaries is commonly carried out for conservative substances,
pollutants that decay in accordance with a first order reaction, and DO;
the latter involves coupled mass balance equations for BOD and DO. More
complex pollutants (e.g., various forms of nitrogen) are amenable to quan-
titative forecasting procedures but, as in the case of streams, this may
require a more extensive, research type study effort. The previously sited
manual, Simplified Mathematical Modeling of Water Quality, provides detailed
procedures and graphical aids for dealing with conservative
substances that decay according to first order reactions and
DO. These procedures are restricted to steady state conditions for
"one dimensional models"; i.e., models for which advection and longitudinal
dispersion are the only signifcant pollutant transport mechanisms.
As in the case of stream quality analysis, computer models exist
to aid in the analysis of more complex situations (e.g., non-steady state
conditions and cases where dispersion in more than one direction must
be accounted for). An example is provided by the FWQA Dynamic Estuary
Model (DEM), where it is necessary to divide the estuary into segments,
calibrate the model, and provide the requisite input data characterizing
future conditions for estuary geometry, dispersion, reaction rates, etc.
The outputs from DEM consist of temporal and spatial distributions of
one or more of the following: conservative substances, substances that
decay in accordance with first order reactions and DO.
Quality of Other Receiving Waters
Because streams and estuaries are the principal aquatic environments
serving as receptors of point and nonpoint sources of waste to be controlled
by elements of a WQM plan they have received emphasis in this discussion.
Clearly, however, they are not the only receiving'environments subject
to waste inputs. The discussion below touches briefly on the kinds of
forecasting methods used in analyzing the effects of waste inputs on the
quality of. other types of receiving waters.
Feigner, K.D. and Harris, H.S,, 1970, Documentation Report - FWQA Dynamic
Estuary Model,Federal Water Quality Administration, U.S. Department of the
Interior, Washington, D.C,
2-20
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Coastal Water Quality
Communities near the coast commonly discharge their wastes into
estuarine waters or directly into the ocean. A well developed class
of models exists for estimating the concentration of pollutants (e.g.,
coliform bacteria) in the "sewage plume" caused by direct discharges to
the near shore ocean environment.*
Lakes and Reservoir Quality
There are relatively few simple mathematical procedures that can
be used to analyze the response of lakes and reservoirs to changes in
waste inputs. Such simple analyses might involve, for example, the use
of mass balance concepts to analyze conservative substances entering
a completely mixed lake. Simple situations like this one are, however,
not commonly encountered in practice.
Typically, the analysis of water quality in lakes and reservoirs**
is made exceedingly complex by a number of factors. One is the circulation
of flow generally follows a three-dimensional pattern. Three-dimensional
hydrodynamic models that can be used to analyze the circulation patterns
in lakes and reservoirs exist, but they cannot be applied without conducting
a major study effort. The same comment applies to water quality; in this
instance, the complications result because of factors like thermal layering
and complex mixing.
In the context of WQM planning, the only kinds of analyses of lakes
and reservoirs that appear feasible are those which rest on major simplifying
assumptions and the professional judgments of specialists in sanitary engineer-
ing and limnology. It may be possible to use data on thermal layering to
segment the lake, so that it may then be subject to a careful mathematical
modeling effort. More than likely, however, expert professional judgment,
supplemented by mathematical procedures, will provide the basis for assessing
water quality impacts.
Algae assay procedures can play a useful role in analyzing lakes
and reservoirs. Information from the EPA National Eutrophication Survey
may also prove useful in assessing water quality impacts in lakes.
*
Ortolano, L. and Brown, P.S., 1970, The Movement and Quality of Coastal
Waters: A Review of Models Relevant to Long Island, New York, Report #
CEM 4047-411, Center for the Environment and Man, Inc., Hartford, CT.
**
Elder, R.A., Krenkel, P.A. and Thackston, E.L. (eds.), 1868, Proceedings
of the Specialty Conference on Current Research into the Effects of
Reservoirs on Water Quality, Tech. Report No. 17, Dept. of Environmental
and Water Resources Engineering, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tenn.
2-21
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Groundwater Quality
As in the case of lakes and reservoirs, the assessment of water
quality changes in groundwater systems will likely rest on the professional
judgments of experts, in this case experts in geochemistry. Groundwater
quality prediction models are generally much more crudely developed than
surface water models. Highly sophisticated mathematical hydraulic models
are available, but these lack the ability to predict mass transport of
absorbed or partially soluble compounds because of the difficult chemistry
involved. Additionally, surveys of groundwater conditions are expensive
because of the great number of observation wells required to establish flow
direction and existing water quality.
An overview of the types of approaches followed by groundwater
specialists in assessing the impacts of changes in waste- inputs is pro-
vided by Walton.
EPA is currently sponsoring a project by the U.N. Scientific Com-
mittee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) to evaluate existing ground-
water models. This study will be completed in 1977. For more information
contact the U.S. EPA Robert S. Kerr Environmental Research Laboratory, P.O.
Box 1198, Ada, Oklahoma 74820.
Walton, W.C., 1970, Groundwater Resource Evaluation, McGraw-Hill, N.Y,
2-22
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LAND USE IMPACT ASSESSMENT
The impact of water quality management plan alternatives on land
use activities may be significant for at least two reasons. First, by
influencing the spatial distribution, time phasing, size or form of land
use activities, the WQM plan will affect the way a community may achieve
its non-water quality related goals such as housing or transportation.
Second, the manner in which land use activities are developed, located
and operated will affect the generation and discharge of pollutants.
Therefore the land use impact assessment of alternative elements of a
WQM plan must accomplish two objectives. The agency should assess impacts
of the plan on new development in a community: the amount, location,
cost, function, population served, sequence in which development will
occur, implications for the continued operation of existing activities.
In some instances changes in land use activities resulting from water
quality management plans result in impacts in other media (e.g., air
quality impacts from altered transportation patterns). The land use
assessment must provide the basis for the environmental assessment of
air, water, vegetation, wildlife, and visual quality. These impacts
are discussed elsewhere in this' handbook. This chapter discusses im-
pacts to land use activities which affect their ability to meet the
non-environmental goals (e.g., housing and transportation) of the area.
In some communities where there is an adopted (and implemented) commun-
ity land use plan (or policy) the WQM planner may be able to use the
plan as the basis against which impacts are measured. In addition,
some limited guidance is provided regarding information which may be
useful in assessing the environmental effects of land use changes.
In this chapter the term "land use" describes those physical
structures and activities which are built or operate on the land
(residences, stores, industries, farms). For the purpose of the assess-
ment the "physical boundaries" of the activity will often extend beyond
the actual physical structure (e.g., a building) and include the associ-
ated roads, site development and construction activities.
3-1
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The characteristics of the land itself will affect both the range
of activities which may occur on it as well as the impact on the environ-
ment from those activities. Implementation of measures to protect critical
environmental areas (e.g. wetlands) may affect the recreation options avail-
able to a community and/or influence the cost of housing which is developed.
However, land does not have to be "critical" in order to affect
the environmental impact of land use activities. For example, soils vary
in their drainage characteristics influencing the amount and quality of
water which passes through it. The relationship of these physical char-
acteristics to water quality are discussed in the Water Quality chapter.
They are also summarized in the Parameters section of this chapter be-
cause they can influence the development potential of particular land areas.
Key Questions
What changes will occur in the manner in which land use
activities are constructed, operated or managed over time?
How will the amount, form, function, location, density,
cost, timing, of the development of new activities be
affected by the WQM plan?
Will existing development be affected by the water quality
management plan?
How may the WQM plan affect the development potential of
different areas; including critical environmental areas?
Which segments of the population would most likely be affected
by these impacts?
LAND USE ASSESSMENT PARAMETERS
Because land use is not only related to environmental assessment
but also to achievement of other community goals, there are an undeter-
mined number of parameters which could be considered depending upon local
priorities. Each community will have to study its own priorities and make
sure that they are reflected in the land use assessment. In this section
the parameters are described. How they are to be used is discussed in
subsequent sections.
3-2
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The parameters which will be important to measure include:
"critical" land areas, existing land use activities, form, function,
location and timing of new land development, and the manner in which
these activities will be developed, operated and managed. Communities
may further define these parameters depending upon local priorities.
A community which was interested in developing a water based tourism and
recreation economy might add, "amount of developable waterfront land" as
a parameter; a community which had an agricultural based economy may want
to identify "prime" agricultural lands; a community with a large senior
citizen population wanting to enhance opportunities for mass transit
may choose to emphasize "residential density"; a central city may choose
to identify land use changes which indicate increased or decreased housing
opportunities.
Several of the land use parameters are not entirely exclusive
of each other. For example, in a selected community a particular land
use activity (e.g., single family residential) may always be developed
the same way (e.g., five acre minimum lot size with septic tanks). The
activity and the manner in which it is developed are presented separately
here to emphasize the importance of not only considering the activity,
but, also how it is developed and managed. Further, not all of the para-
meters represent a single identifiable number which can be easily measured.
In many cases it will be trends that are important. A decrease over a
ten year period of new housing starts from 70% to 20% single family, may
be more significant than the absolute number of new housing starts.
Because physical land characteristics are so closely related to
the suitability of the land for different activities (e.g. , waste treat-
ment, agriculture), some of these characteristics are summarized in Table
3-1. Except in those communities where these are expected to be large
scale development changes, detailed analysis of these characteristics
will be confined to the Water Quality chapter. References to sources of
more detailed information are footnoted in this chapter and located at
the end of this chapter.
Physical land characteristics are significant because they help
to determine:
The ability and speed with which the soil transmits or
holds water and nutrients affecting both the quantity and
quality of ground and surface water;
The susceptibility of the soil to movement (e.g., erosion,
landslides, or subsidence, etc.) and thereby its suitability
for development and changes in sediment loadings in streams.
3-3
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The type of vegetation which could be supported affecting
erosion potential and wildlife habitats.
The desirability and feasibility of the soil as building
foundation or environment for subsurface structures (e.g.,
sewers).
These characteristics* include: texture, structure, internal
drainage, infiltration, absorption capacity, permeability, and acidity-
alkalinity. There are many other soil characteristics which are signifi-
cant depending upon the purpose of the analysis. They include depth to
water table, slope, flooding, plasticity, shrink-swell potential, etc.
However, for the purpose of the WQM plan assessment, the following para-
meters are most significant either as a factor in land use suitability,
in wastewater treatment, in ground and surface water quality, or in
providing a habitat for vegetation and wildlife.
Critical Land Areas
The definition of critical land areas varies according to the
purpose for which the determination is made. Definitions include: rarity,
significance as a wildlife habitat, importance to the quality and supply
of drinking water, and public safety as in the case of flood plains and
seismically sensitive areas. Certain types of areas commonly accepted as
critical have been the subject of more specialized study, as well as of
specialized development requlations.** Examples of such areas include:
Environmental Geology: Conservation, Land Use Planning and Resource
Management, by Peter T. Flawn, Harper and Row, N.Y., 1970, p.67.
For an excellent discussion of soils and their role in wastewater
treatment, see, Wastewater Treatment Systems for Rural Communities,
by Steven N. Goldstein and Walter J. Moberg, Jr., Commission on Rural
Water, Washington, D.C., 1973.
**
Performance Controls for Sensitive Lands: A Practical Guide for Local
Administrators, prepared by the American Society of Planning Officials
for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D. C., March
1975, EPA-600/5-75-005.
3-4
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Table 3-1
PHYSICAL LAND CHARACTERISTICS
Texture: the size of the soil particles and the percent of sand,
silt and clay in the soil. This will affect the ability of the soils to
hold air and water, the likelihood of expansion with increased moisture,
chemical reactions, the way nutrients are held and recycled and the rate
with which water will move through it.
Soil Structure: the natural grouping of soil particles (also called
aggregation). This is a significant parameter in determining the in-
filtration of water into the soil, and the movement of water through the
soil (permeability).
Infiltration: the entry of water into the soil; a function of texture,
structure, ground cover, mineral and moisture content.
Absorption Capacity: the amount of liquid the soil can hold. The soil
structure is a key parameter in this determination. The size of the soil
particles and pores, as well as the relationship between the pores, will
determine the amount of surface tension and in turn the water retention
capacity and permeability of the soil. Porosity is the name given to the
total volume of pore space present in a given volume of rock or soil.
Permeability: a measure of the ease with which water may move (percolate)
through soil. The open spaces within the soil are the key factor in deter-
mining the permeability. Permeability is expressed as a rate of water move-
ment (e.g. , feet per second). Permeability is significant in terms of
evaluating the drainage capacity of the soil and is an important parameter
if effluent is going to be discharged to the ground. Because effluent is
treated as it passes through the soil, the amount of time it takes to
reach ground or surface water will affect the degree of treatment it
receives.
Acidity-Alkalinity: the acidity and alkalinity of the soil measured by
the pH. The degree to which a soil is acidic or alkaline is important in
determining the type of plants it can support and also the chemical effects
on subsurface structures such as pipelines.
Erosion Rate: the rate at which soil erodes, a function of the rate of
precipitation, che length and steepness of the slope, the infiltration
capacity of the soil and the resistance of the surface. The presence of
ground cover will be significant in determining erosion. Erosion is im-
portant in water quality because of the potential for sediment to contain
pollutants (e.g., oil, pesticides), as well as the implications for slope
stability.
3-5
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Wetlands Hillsides
Woodlands Coastal areas
Aquifers Flood plains
In order to be able to assess alternative WQM plan elements it will
be important to first map "critical" areas and to identify the implications
of such areas for development (e.g., structural controls for flood plain
development, landscaping requirements for hillsides, limitations on im-
pervious surfaces in wetlands areas).
Location, Timing and Changes in Land Use Activities
The activities for which land will be developed (either because of
or in spite of a WQM plan) will be significant, in part, because of their
direct pollution generating potential. Often categories of land use
activities are related to estimations of "waste loadings", "water consump-
tion", etc.
Knowledge of the activities is also important because of other
community goals. Development of new industry will have implications for
the in-migration of new workers and their families, for transportation
services, for new housing and the price of existing housing, etc. The
proximity to central city areas of land under development for residential
uses will affect transportation demand, the cost of the housing and the
segments of the population likely to be served by it. If that same land
was developed for another activity (e.g., recreation) it would have an
entirely different effect.
The relationship between different activities (e.g., density of
housing, industrial parks, multiple use developments) will have implications
for energy use, accessibility, transportation demand, etc.
Knowledge of which activities are being replaced due to plan im-
plementation is also significant. If agricultural land is gradually being
replaced by development, the economy of the area, the types of pollutants
generated, the fiscal balance etc. will change. If inner city areas are
changed from low to high density residential use, the cost of housing, the
demand for goods, and services, and the demographic mix of the area will
also be affected.
3-6
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Development Activities
It is not sufficient to merely categorize land use by function.
There are other characteristics of activities which will be important.
These include: the manner in which development actually occurs (e.g.,
construction practices); physical characteristics of development (e.g.,
lot size, percent of lot covered, landscaping); and waste management
characteristics (e.g., septic tanks, landfills). These characteristics
are important because they influence the amount of permeable surface
(affecting runoff), the amount of open space for dispersion of pollutants
and separation of incompatible uses, the transportation requirements
(affecting air quality and runoff quality) etc.
The form of waste treatment will also be an important determinant
of land use. Clearly sewer systems connected to municipal or regional
waste treatment systems will tolerate a higher density of development
than will septic systems. Finally, the activities associated with develop-
ment (construction, site preparation) may influence the cost of development
or the ease with which particular sites are developed.
LAND USE ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES
There is an enormous variety in the range of methodologies which
are available to assess land use changes and the suitability of different
land areas to development. There are detailed engineering studies and
procedures to measure the various soil parameters, and complex models
to determine the spatial allocation of land use. Some of these techniques
may have been used as part of the WQM planning process.
The use of such complex and detailed methodologies for the purposes
of most of the WQM plan assessments is unnecessary. Rather, the WQM planner
will have to develop an understanding of the forces shaping development
trends and patterns in the area and will have to interpret this understand-
ing in the framework of strategies which are developed through the WQM
planning process. There is generally a large amount of data locally
available which, if carefully interpreted, can indicate land use trends.
3-7
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This section concentrates on those sources of information generally
available at the local level. Additional references to more detailed
and sophisticated methods are provided throughout and at the end of this
chapter, and planners can refer to these depending upon the particlar
priorities and problems within their area.*
There are a large number of classification schemes for soils.**
These classification schemes are documented in numerous geology and engineer-
ing reference books. Because each system was developed for a different pur--
pose they tend to weigh soil properties according to varied criteria (e.g.,
as a foundation for a highway, suitability for certain crops, etc.). Before
using a specific scale for the WQM assessment, the planner should briefly
investigate the original purpose behind its development.
The Soil Conservation Service is a good source of information
regarding local soil characteristics.*** Soil surveys, prepared by the
SCS (often in cooperation with State agricultural experiment stations and
other government jurisdictions), generally describe the local soils and
their limitations for different purposes. Soil surveys and maps will
generally be adequate for planning and WQM assessment purposes. However,
for determining the suitability of a particular site for a designated use,
more detailed engineering analysis would be required.
Areawide Assessment Procedures Manual, Volume n, Appendix C, Land Use
Data Collection and Analysis, EPA-600/9-76-014, July 1976, Municipal
Environmental Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, Ohio 45768. Includes
a description of land use data requirements and sources. Land Use Infor-
mation for Water Quality Management Planning, Water Planning Division,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., 20460, August 1976
*
American Association of State Highway Officials Soil Classification, the
Unified Soil Classification (Casaarande Classification, Bureau of Reclama-
tion, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers), and the U.S. Department of Agricul-
tural Textural Classification.
**
Guide for Interpreting Engineering Uses of Soils, USDA, Soil Conservation
Service, November 1971, available from Supt. Documents, U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, as cited in Goldstein and
Moberg, op. cit.
3-f
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Soil color is also a useful indicator of both soil drainage and
the presence of organic materials. There are numerous field and labora-
tory engineering procedures which exist for analyzing specific soil
samples, including mechanical analysis in the laboratory to determine
particle size, and percolation tests to measure absorption properties for
septic system location. In addition, there are many equations available
to measure erosion, rate of infiltration, evapotranspiration, etc. For
most of this analysis, data concerning precipitation (available from the
Weather Bureau), ground cover (see chapter on Ecology), soil characteristics
(SCS) and slope (USGS) are necessary. It will often be possible however,
to rely on previous local experience and soil surveys, unless the assess-
ment was looking at the use of a specific site for a particular purpose
(e.g., land disposal of effluent). Most of this information will be pri-
marily applicable to the Water Quality and Ecology chapters.
Critical Land Areas; Information concerning the location and
description of critical land areas is often available from the State or
from local universities and organizations. If slope is the significant
factor in determining that an area is critical, the USGS is a source of
topographical information. For areas which are located in either the
coastal zone or flood plain, data and plans prepared through the Coastal
Zone Management Program or the National Flood Insurance Program may be of
use.
In determining critical land areas, the planner will have to be
careful to note that although the boundaries of the actual area may be
clearly defined, there is often a surrounding "buffer" zone which can be
significant. Although the zone may not be critical itself, activities
located there may impact the "critical" area.
Development Patterns; Although there are numerous models* to
describe future development patterns and locate key activities, they are
generally costly and time consuming. For most communities which are under-
going growth in an incremental manner the use of such models will be un-
necessary. Rather an understanding of the forces at work (e.g., public
investments, tax policy, zoning changes) at the local level which influence
development trends will suffice. In those areas (e.g., energy development
areas) where there may be significant variations from past development
trends and patterns, more sophisticated methods may be appropriate.
An Introduction to Urban Development Models and Guidelines for Their Use
in Urban Transportation Planning; U.S, Department of Transportation,
Federal Highway Administration, October, 1975.
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The WQM planner will need to identify patterns of land use changes
(e.g., agricultural to residential), and areas which are likely to be
developed first (e.g., urban fringe or leapfrog development). There are
a number of plans, policies and programs which are developed locally
and are significant in determining these growth patterns. These include
police power regulations (zoning), capital improvements programs and tax
policies.** Often these mechanisms do not operate strictly as they were
designed. A good example of this is zoning. Although a zoning map may
describe the current allowable development potential for an area, local
policies regarding rezoning can mean that there will be significant
differences between what will happen in an area and the way it is currently
zoned. However, by looking critically at the zoning of an area, and per-
haps more importantly to the way in which it is modified it will be pos-
sible to learn something about development trends.
A determinant of land use development patterns is the capital
improvements program of a community. The presence of roads and waste
disposal and treatment capacity is often a key factor in not only the
amount of development which will take place, but its location.
The development of very large facilities (public and private) is
also a factor to note. Large energy facilities (e.g., electric power
generating plants, coal mines), government facilities (e.g., military
installations) and private industrial or commerical development all will
influence population growth and thereby land use trends. It is not always
possible to get this kind of information early in the development process,
but there are several ways to begin to identify such possibilities. Know-
ledge of significant energy resources, the presence of large parcels of
undeveloped land in single ownership, local tax advantages for industrial
development, programs by a Chamber of Commerce or Development Authority
all will be an indication of potential land use change.
Tax policy (Federal, State and local) also is a force in directing
land use. Federal capital gains and estate tax provisions can influence the
conversion of rural farm land to developed use. Similarly, State and local
property tax policies will affect land conversion trends. Many States
have special programs to protect farmlands.
**
For a summary of some of the issues and reports dealing with the role of
capital investments and land use see the Fifth Annual Report of the Council
on Environmental Quality, 1974.
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Most communities have codes and ordinances which detail the way
development will occur on a particular site. The zoning ordinance contains
specifications for the amount of lot area which can be developed, the
number of parking spaces per unit, the height of buildings etc. Sub-
division ordinances, and in some communities regulations allowing for planned
unit or cluster developments, can provide information regarding the amount
of open space and services which may be required as a conditidn of develop-
ment. Building codes also play a part in determining building materials
and, in some instances, energy demand. Tax policy will affect the intensity
of development on a particular site. Once the types of land use development
can be classified, it will be possible to estimate waste load generation
and to a certain extent, economic and social impacts (e.g., diversity and
cost of housing types). Making waste load projections is discussed in the
chapter on Water Quality.
There is a large range of methodologies available for assessing the
quality of waste disposal techniques as well as travel demand associated
with different development patterns. These methodologies include transpor-
tation models and engineering studies. In general these models will not be
utilized by the WQM planner. Where a local transportation agency may be
utilizing such a model, the WQM planner may chose to coordinate with the
transportation agency.
BASELINE DEVELOPMENT
The purpose of developing a baseline of land use is to describe
what is going to happen in the absence of the plan.
The components of the land use baseline are: land use policies
and ordinances which guide development trends, critical environmental areas
for which special development practices may be needed, the capacity of
infrastructure which is already in place (e.g., roads and sewers), infor-
mation regarding planned public investments, large undeveloped areas or
areas developed at a "low" intensity (e.g., agriculture) and trends towards
conversion of such land to development.
The existing land use plan and development ordinances (e.g., zoning,
building codes, performance standards, subdivision ordinances, construction
codes, etc.), will be primary factors in defining development patterns. This
will include the allocation of uses (e.g., commercial, residential, etc.)
within the area, as well as current policies regarding site development
(grading, lot coverage, landscaping, irrigation practices, etc.). In addi-
tion some effort should be made to identify key population groups within
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the WQM area (e.g., the elderly, low-income groups, tourists, workers) who
may be of particular importance to the local jurisdictions. Identification
of these groups will allow both the baseline and impact assessment to focus
in on more specific land use concerns.
Identification of critical environmental areas for which special
attention may be required should include both the specific area as well
as any buffer zones needed for its protection. The baseline should
describe the development implications for these areas - can they tolerate
limited development, if so, have they reached their limit, are there programs
and standards for their protection, etc.? Where there is a survey, areas
which may have certain use limitations may be identified to allow more
detailed analysis of alternative WQM plan outputs which, affect either those
areas or uses.
Information regarding planned and in place infrastructure, as well
as large undeveloped parcels will help to indicate where future developemnt
is likely to occur. The projection of future development is a very complex
(and fairly uncertain) process. At a minimum such factors as roads and
sewers; land availability; Federal tax policy, the economy, and interest
rates, (creating incentives for new housing starts and rural to urban land
conversion); as well as local development policies will play a role. Roads,
sewers and land availability are only suggested as starting points for
identifying broad development patterns. This information must be coupled
with the knowledge the local planner will have of past trends within the
region, of policies in neighboring jurisdictions and of significant events
(e.g., large scale resource development) which may be unique to their
region. In this way the baseline will present a picture of existing land
use, of those factors which govern land use form and trends, of critical
land areas, and of locations for which significant change may be most reason-
ably expected.
IMPACT ASSESSMENT
The assessment* of land use impacts of the alternative WQM plan
elements will focus upon how land use trends will be affected through the
implementation of the plan. There are individual pollutant sources which
will be significant on a site specific basis. However, the environmental
impact of land use will be most visible when the cumulative effects of
development over a large area are examined. This would include changes in
the amount of permeable surface area, impacts of construction practices,
changes in the volume and constituents of runoff, etc.
Planning Methodologies for Analysis of Land Use/Water Quality Relation-
ships prepared by Betz Environmental Engineers, Inc. for the U.S. En-
vironmental Protection Agency, October, 1976, Contract No. 68-01-3551.
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Changes in density will become significant if they allow for different
waste treatment and disposal processes. Therefore, for the purpose of
environmental impact, the assessment should focus on the impact of the WQM
plan on significant activities, critical environmental areas, and the
cumulative impact of land use activities over a large area as evidenced by
land conversion patterns and development trends.
There are a variety of ways in which land use activities may be
affected by the outputs of the WQM plan. Areas in which erosion and
sedimentation problems affect the water supply may require implementation
of measures which control construction activities. This may influence both
the ease as well as the cost of construction. Protection of hillsides may
require implementation of grading and erosion controls, which limit the
developable area of the slope. This will affect the cost, as well as the
type of activities for which the site is developed. Changing the zoned
use of a site (e.g., from residential to industrial) may be significant in
terms of additional development which is attracted. The cumulative impacts
of such decisions are significant from an economic as well as an environ-
mental perspective.
The adoption of regulations which control the use and development
of septic tanks will influence the size of lots which are developed, in
turn affecting open space, the cost of housing and the population groups
for whom it is available. Finally the location of interceptors* and the
capacity of regional waste treatment facilities will affect the location,
amount, and timing of development. Although decisions concerning waste
treatment location and capacity should reflect rather than drive community
land use decisions, often it is difficult to define the specific causal
factor. It is therefore useful to review the land use implications of such
decisions if they have not been comprehensively analyzed through the
planning process. To the extent that interceptor lines are consistent
with local land use plans and development policies (e.g., transportation
planning), the impact attributable to the plan may be minimal. If such a
route goes through farmland for which the community has not contemplated
development, the impact will be significant. To the extent that a community
is trying to develop a transportation strategy to minimize commuting, it will
Interceptor Sewers and Suburban Sprawl, prepared by Urban Systems Research
and Engineering, Inc., for the Council on Environmental Quality, September
1974.
Secondary Impact of Transportation and Wastewater Investments: Review and
Bibliography, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Pro-
tection Agency, Washington, D.C., EPA-600/5-75-002, January 1975.
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be useful to see whether incentives for industrial location are consistent
with transportation planning efforts.
Administrative review procedures (e.g., construction permit review
processes) which are adopted as part of the WQM plan will primarily provide
an opportunity for indepth consideration of special problems which may be
associated with either a particular use or site. Unless there is a pre-
designated list of conditions (e.g., planting requirements) which may be
attached to projects, it is difficult to assess the implications for such
procedures on land use. However, there are two main ways they can be in-
fluential. First, if they increase the uncertainty associated with develop-
ment and lengthen the approval process, they will influence costs. Second,
by the way they define which projects are included in the procedure they
might create an incentive for certain types of development.
In order to assess these impacts the WQM planner will have to rely
on the data sources previously described.
Some of the factors to note include: the discrepancy between the
developed uses and the zoned potential of an area (e.g.,, a single family
residential neighborhood zoned for high rise development); policies regarding
rezoning - how often they are granted, if they are given primarily in cer-
tain areas, and trends in the kinds of development which are being allowed;
individual zoning decisions (e.g., rezoning, special exceptions, and
variances) are important to look at because it may indicate incremental
development changes which, when viewed as a pattern, are significant. In
addition, building permits (the rate at which they are issued, the areas
receiving the most applications, etc.) and the number of starts which
result can be an indicator of land use trends.
The location and size of interceptor lines, as well as the treatment
capacity are significant. Planners should note the population projections
which are used in the design of such facilities. Transportation facilities
(either in the form of highways or mass transit) are also important for
the same reasons. Simply reviewing a capital improvements programs is
not sufficient. The WQM planner should look at the capital budget and
determine which investments will be made first. As in the case of zoning,
it is necessary to look at both the planning documents as well as at the pro-
grams and policies which implement the plans. Knowledge of tax programs
balanced with an understanding of strong local development incentives, will
help assess the potential for development of open space. Alternatively,
fiscal policies may contain deficiences that the WQM planner will identify
and may attempt to remedy. Finally, events in neighboring communities are
significant. A sewer or building moritorium in a neighboring jurisdiction
will affect land development in those areas which already have required
facilities. The impact of alternative WQM plan elements may be intensified
or tempered by actions nearby. Therefore, the WQM planner should be aware of
all these factors in assessing land use impacts.
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ADDITIONAL REFERENCES
Millar, Turk and Foth, Fundamentals of Soil Science, John Wiley and
Sons, N.Y.
A Selected Annotated Bibliography on Land Resource Inventory and
Analysis for Planning by E. Bruce MacDougall and Charles E.
Brandes for Department of Environmental Resources, Commonwealth
of Pennsylvania, Harrisburgh, Pa., Feburary 1974.
Land Use-Water Quality Relationship prepared by Meta Systems, Inc.,
for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, March 1976, WPD
3-76-02.
Water Resources as a Basis for Comprehensive Planning and Development
in the Christina River Basin, by Joachem Tourbier, prepared
for the U.S. Department of the Interior, Office of Water Re-
sources Research, April 1973.
Regulation for Flood Plains, Report No. 277, Planning Advisory Service,
February 1972, American Society of Planning Officials.
State Programs for the Differential Assessment of Farm and Open
Space Land, Agricultural Economic Report No. 256, Economic Research
Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D. C., 1974.
Coastal Ecosystems, Ecological Considerations for Management of
the Coastal Zone, by John Clark, The Conservation Foundation,
Washington, D. C., March 1074.
The Costs of Sprawl, Literature Review and Detailed Cost Analysis
prepared by Real Estate Research Corporation for the Council
on Environmental Quality, Department of Housing and Urban Devel-
opment and the Environmental Protection Agency, April 1974.
Employment Growth in Rural Areas prepared by Urban Systems Research
and Engineering, Inc., for the Office of Economic Opportunity,
Washington, D.C., September 1973.
Managing the Social and Economic Impacts of Energy Development, pre-
pared for the Energy Research and Development Administration by
Centaur Management Consultants, Inc.f July 1976.
For references to solid waste literature, see EPA Bibliography,
Available Information Materials (SW-58-25) Solid Waste Manage-
ment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, November 1975.
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Wastewater Engineering: Collection, Treatment and Disposal, Metcalf
and Eddy, Inc., Mcgraw - Hill, Inc., 1972
Water Supply and Pollution Control, Second edition, John W. Clark,
Warren Vessman, Jr. and Mark J. Hammer, International Textbook
Company, 1971.
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AIR QUALITY IMPACT ASSESSMENT
Elements of a water quality management plan designed to achieve
water quality goals may also have significant effects on a region's
air quality0 For examples, the disposal of sludge from a sewage treatment
plant by incineration has a direct impact on air pollution emissions,
while changes in sewer service areas may induce changes in transportation
patterns and residential or commerical development and, as a result, affect
air quality. Inter-media impacts of water pollution control measures
are clearly recognized in Section 208 of the FWPCA Amendments of 1972,
the WQM Guidelines published by EPA and in guidance on coordinating
WQM planning and regional air quality standards attainment and maintenance
planning. For example, the Guidelines state that "The State should make
sure that population projections and control strategies developed under
the State Implementation Plan (SIP) are consistent with those in the State
WQM plan."
This chapter presents guidance on how to perform an assessment
of air quality impacts resulting from the development water quality manage-
ment plan alternativeso There are several key questions to be answered
in an air quality assessment.
Key Questions
Have consistent land use and population projections
from local and state planning agencies been incorporated
into estimates of both air and water quality?
A general reference on estimating the impact of land use on air quality
is Land Development and the Natural Environment: Estimating Impacts, Dale
L. Keyes, The Urban Institute, April 1976.
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What changes in air pollutant emissions and resultant
air quality concentrations will be caused directly or
indirectly from the implementation of the WQM plan?
Will the implementation of the plan cause air quality to
deteriorate significantly below present conditions in areas
where the air quality is better than Federal or state standards?
Will the implementation of the plan cause air quality
to violate the national ambient air quality standards or
State standards?
What measures could be taken to minimize adverse air quality
impacts?
In answering these and related air quality impacts questions, the WQM
planning agencies are urged to involve local and State air quality planning
and maintenance agencies in the area. This point is covered in more
detail later in this chapter.
With the exception of air pollution emissions generated directly
by a waste treatment sludge disposal process, most impacts on the atmosphere
from elements of a WQM plan are indirectly the result of land uses.
Many measures which may be adopted as part of a WQM plan will affect
the nature of land use and the timing of land use development. The WQM
plans are expected to consider such controls as zoning, subdivision regu-
lations, conservation easements, building codes, development permits,
hillside regulations, discharge permits, sewer hookup regulations, septic
tank ordinances, and so forth. These controls will in turn affect the
rate and direction of land development and therefore the air pollution
resulting from various land uses. In assessing the air quality impacts
of land use changes, the following use categories should be analyzed:
commercial and residential uses which generate air pollution primarily
as a result of space heating; industrial uses which generate air pollution
as a result of both space heating and industrial processes; transporation
facilities which may serve industrial, commerical or residential land
uses and which generate air pollution as a result of automotive, truck
and bus travel; and energy resource development and energy production
necessary to serve all land uses.
The resulting air pollution from these land uses can be analyzed
in terms of the resultant ambient air quality concentrations, that is
the level of pollution in the surrounding air (e.g., parts per million
4-2
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or micrograms per cubic meter) or in terms of pollutant emissions (e.g.,
tons per unit area per year or pounds per hour from a smokestack). It
should be recognized that ambient air quality is the sought after measure-
ment because known adverse affects are based on ambient concentrations.
Pollutant emissions may be estimated based on pollutant generating acti-
vities. It is also possible to convert emissions to ambient concentrations
through dispersion models which are discussed later in this chapter.
The criteria against which air quality impact should be measured are
meeting or bettering air quality standards. These standards have been
set by the Federal government (and in some instances made more stringent
by State governments) to protect public health and to improve public
welfare.
AIR QUALITY ASSESSMENT PARAMETERS
The Clean Air Act, as amended, requires States to develop plans
to implement national ambient air quality standards established by EPA.
Individual States have the opportunity to establish more stringent standards.
The national or State standards provide a basis for evaluating the impact
of alternative elements of a WQM plan on air quality. The national standards
(listed in Table 4-1) are based on measures of the following six pollutants,
commonly used as indicators of air quality. The state-of-the-art regarding
the sources and effects of these pollutants are contained in various EPA
publications including the "Air Quality Criteria"* documents for each pol-
lutant.
Hydrocarbons (HC) are substances whose molecules contain
only hydrogen and carbon atoms. The significance of hydro-
carbon emissions relates principally to their role in the
production of photochemical smog. They are emitted mainly
as a result of the partial combustion of fossil fuels.
Transportation activities, industrial processes, power
plants, and space heating are major sources of hydrocarbons.
Carbon Monoxide (CO) constitutes the single greatest pol-
lutant, by weight, in the urban atmosphere. It is a color-
less, odorless, tasteless gas which can cause dizziness,
unconsciousness, or even death, by lessening the ability
of blood to carry oxygen. It results from the incomplete
combustion of hydrocarbons and its main source is the auto-
mobile (internal combustion engine).
Several of the "criteria" documents were published by the National Air Pol-
lution Control Administration, a predessor agency to EPA. An EPA example
of these documents is Air Quality Criteria for Nitrogen Oxides, EPA Report
AP-84, January 1971.
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Nitrogen Oxides (NOV), mainly nitric oxide (NO) another
''"" '" " '- "" A,
contributor to the formation of photochemical smog, and
nitrogen dioxide (N02), are formed when nitrogen and
oxygen from the air are combined under high temperature.
Thus, they are characteristic of any high temperature
combustion process such as occurs in an automobile engine
or a fossil-fueled electric power plant.
Sulfur Oxides (SOX), mostly sulfur dioxide (S02) with some
sulfur trioxide (SOg), are emitted when fossil fuels, such
as coal and oil, containing sulfur impurities are burned.
Suspended Particulates is a loose category which includes
a wide range of solid or liquid particles which are typi-
cally emitted during combustion or from the processing of
materials. Some of the deleterious properties of particulates
are caused by their chemical composition, while others are
merely a result of their existence and their size.
These five are commonly referred to as "primary pollutants" to
distinguish them from the so-called "secondary pollutants" associated
with photochemical smog. In particular, when nitric oxides and hydrocarbons
are together in the presence of sunlight, a partially understood complex
series of reactions takes place which results in various harmful secondary
pollutants, including nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O^), and peroxyacetyl
nitrate ("PAN", 013 003 NO2). Ozone and PAN are usually referred to
as photochemical oxidants .
In addition to these six criteria pollutants, the concentration of
a number of other pollutants is restricted because of their correlations with
extreme health hazards. Among the "hazardous" air pollutants are berylium,
mercury, vinyl chloride, and asbestos fibers from a number of sources, such
as brake linings, asbestos-asphalt roadways, building insulation materials, etc.
Hazardous air pollutants are subject to control through National Emission
Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants. Other pollutants, less hazardous, but
with significant effects can be controlled through Standards of Performance
for New Stationary Sources.
COOPJ3INATION BETWEEN WQM PLANNING AND AQM PLANNING
The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 required States to develop
State Implementation Plans (SIPs) designed to meet the national ambient
air quality standards. As part of SIP development the States must identify
areas that may, as a consequence of current or projected growth rates,
have the potential for exceeding the national standards in the future.
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Table 4-1 - Summary of National Ambient Air Quality Standards
POLLUTANT
Participate
matter
Sulfur oxides
Carbon
monoxide
Nitrogen
dioxide
Photochemical
oxidants
Hydrocarbons
(nonmethane)
AVERAGING
TIME
Annual (Geometric
mean)
24-hour2
Annual (Arith-
metic mean)
24-^.our2
3 -hour2
8-hour2
1-hour
Annual (Arith-
metic mean)
1-hour2
3-hour
(6 to 9 a.m.)
PRIMARY
STANDARDS
75 ug/m3
260 |ag/m3
80 ug/m3
(0.03 ppm)
365 ug/m3
(0.14 ppm)
10 mg/m3
( 9 ppm)
40 mg/m3
(35 ppm)
100 ug/m3
(0.05 ppm)
160 ug/m3
(0.08 ppm)
160 ug/m3
(0.24 pnm)
SECONDARY
STANDARDS
60 ug/ra3
150 ,ig/m3
1300 ug/m3
(0.5 ppm)
(Same as
primary)
(Same as
primary)
(Same as
primary)
(Same as
primary)
1 The air quality standards and a description of the reference methods were
published on April 30, 1971 in 42 CFR 410, recodified to 40 CFR 50 on
November 25, 1972.
2 Not to be exceeded more than once per year.
3 ug/m = micrograms per cubic meter
mg/m = milligrams per cubic meter
ppm = parts per million
4-5
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For these potential problem areas, the States must develop air quality
maintenance plans which are similar to water quality management plans.
Water quality planning and air quality planning are so closely
interrelated that EPA has published guidelines on procedures for coor-
dination between air quality maintenance planning and the state and
areawide water quality management program.* The air and water
plans are interrelated both in terms of their impact on one another and
in terms of their comparable planning approaches. While the goal of each
planning and implementation program is to improve the quality of the
environment, the focus on a single medium may result in conflict with
attaining standards in the other medium. If care is taken to coordinate
the development of these two programs, the environmental plans produced
can be mutually supportive.
The degree of coordination between air and water planning is one
measure of the WQM planning agency's efforts towards developing an air
quality impact assessment. In many instances the designated WQM planning
agency will rely on a parallel State or local air quality planning agency
to determine the impact of water quality planning on air quality. The
respective planning agencies should consult early in the WQM plan devel-
opment to determine what part of the air quality assessment the air quality
agencies can provide, and what resources and funds will be made available
to them by the WQM planning agency to assist in this task. It should
be kept in mind that most air quality planning agencies have limited funding
and to have an adequate analysis, the WQM planning agency should expect
to provide some additional resources.
Coordination of the planning programs is also necessary to assure
a proper evaluation of air quality conditions. Such planning coordina-
tion should include:
Joint reviews of the WQM planning process and the air
quality planning process;
Periodic reporting and reviews of plan outputs;
Joint participation in advisory committee roles;
Coordinated search of baseline data and data formats
for economic, demographic, land use and other areawide
information;
Procedures for Coordination between Air Quality Maintenance Planning and
the State and Areawide Water Quality Management Program, EPA, Program
Guidance Memorandum SAM-8.
4-6
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Coordinated projections of economic, population and land
use information.
The following three categories of state and local agencies have
completed or are in the process of completing long-term forecasts of air
quality:
State and local air quality agencies responsible for
development and implementation of SIPs.
Other State and local agencies designated by governors
pursuant to 40 CFR 51.58 to do air quality maintenance
plans.
Metropolitan planning organizations responsible for assessing
consistency between areawide transportaion plans and programs
and SIPs.
Additional guidance on coordinating other planning efforts with air quality
plans can be found in guidelines prepared jointly by EPA and the Federal
Highway Administration.
AIR QUALITY ASSESSMENT METHODS
There are basically three broad approaches for analyzing the
WQM plan impacts on air quality. The first method is restricted to an
analysis of pollutant emission changes (e.g., the change in tons of sulfur
dioxide emitted per year in the area) . This technique allows for a rapid
comparison of plan alternatives without actually calculating the ambient
air quality that would result from those emission changes. However,
if air quality standards are being met or are projected to be met in the
future, then the relative comparison between emission levels for alternative
WQM plan elements would provide an indicator of air quality impacts.
The second approach is an analysis of air quality by use of an
atmospheric simulation or dispersion model. It is doubtful that a water
quality management planning agency can undertake such an analysis on its
own; but it is quite possible that through an agreement with an air planning
organization, it could conduct an air quality impact assessment via an
Guidelines for Analysis of Consistency Between Transportation and Air
Quality Plans and Programs, EPA and FHA, April, 1975.
4-7
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atmospheric dispersion model. Such models consist of mathematical equations
which are based on scientific principles used in physics (diffusion, dis-
persion) , meteorology (wind patterns, mixing depth) and other principles,
such as those governing chemical reactions of sunlight with hydrocarbons
and nitrogen oxides to form photochemical oxidants. The inputs for the
models are atmospheric conditions and emission inventories of stationary
point sources (smokestacks), area sources (home heating emissions uniformly
distributed over an area), and line sources (automobiles in a transportation
corridor). The outputs are usually ground level concentrations at various
points in the area and at various times. As in the case of water models,
the atmospheric models must be calibrated for unique atmospheric conditions
in the area and for the influence of the area's terrain. Following
calibration, the model must be verified by attempting to duplicate measured
air quality for a given set of input conditions. There are a range of
models available of varying complexity. Many of these are described
in an EPA publication on air quality maintenance planning.*
The third method uses both of the first two methods and is de-
pendent upon the development of emission quotas for the planning area.**
Emission quotas can take the form of emission allocation planning, district
emission quotas, floating zone emission quotas and emission density zoning.
All of these strategies provide a link between the control emissions at
the source and the attainment and maintenance of the air quality standards
at the regional level. The emission quota strategy (although not strictly
an assessment process) designates the miximum amount of pollution allowable
in any one area of the region based on an analysis of present air quality
and the assimilative capacity of the air to absorb additional pollutants
without violating air quality standards. Basic to the analysis and imple-
mentation of emission quotas are the translation of land uses into pollutant
emissions, the conversion of emissions to ambient air quality measures
(through atmospheric dispersion models), and the establishment of develop-
ment constraints to keep within the emission limits. Since the establish-
ment of emission quotas is a complex technique, this method can only be
used where such quotas have already been established as an air pollution
control strategy. In most areas, either the first or second methods,
or a combination of them should be used.
* Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis Volume 12:
Applying Atmospheric Simulation Models to Air Quality Maintenance Areas,
EPA Report Number (450/4/74-013).
**
Emission Density and Allocation Procedures for Maintaining Air Quality ,
EPA - 450/3-75-079, June 1975.
4-8
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BASELINE DEVELOPMENT
As a first step in conducting an assessment of the WQM plan's
impact on air quality, it is important to establish a baseline of air
quality conditions. This baseline can then be used as a comparison against
the impacts of alternative elements in a water quality management plan.
There are usually two readily available sources of data from which to
construct a baseline. One source is the emission inventory of major sta-
tionary area, and line sources of air pollutants, (e.g., smokestacks,
commercial areas, and highways respectively). The second is some form
of continuous or intermittent measurements of ambient air quality. For
most metropolitan areas in the country, EPA maintains information on both
emissions and air quality.* In addition, States may have their own emission
inventory systems and air quality data systems.
These data have been collected for several years and should pro-
vide a reasonable reference for use in baseline comparisons with and
without the impacts of the WQM plan. However, those responsible for
developing the environmental assessment should check with the State or local
air pollution control agency to determine when the NEDS data was last
updated and to find out if the State maintains an emission inventory
separate from NEDS. Unfortunately, these information sources are for
historical data and do not project changes in emissions or air quality.
Such projections will have to be made by the WQM planning staff or asso-
ciated air planning staff, based on the projected change of air pollutant
sources in the absence of the WQM plan. For example, population estimates
can be used to scale up (or down) the emissions from home heating or use
of automobile. Similarly industrial growth (or decline) can be used to
vary stationary industrial source emissions with time. Many areas have
or are developing long-term projections of emissions as part of attain-
ment/maintenance planning for air quality. The WQM planning staff should
check with the State or local air pollution control agency for these
data.
IMPACT ASSESSMENT
As mentioned in the previous section, to analyze the impact of
alternative WQM plan elements on air quality, changes in emissions can
National Emissions Data System (NEDSj^, 1975,EPA Research Triangle Park,
North Carolina, and Monitoring and Air Quality Trends Report, 1973 EPA
Office of Air Quality Planning, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.
**
Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis Volume 7:
Projecting County Emissions, Second Edition, EPA-450/4-74-008, January,
1975 (OAQPS No. 1.2-026). See also Volume 13 of the same series, Allocating
Projected Emissions to Sub-County Areas, EPA-450/4-74-014, November, 1974
(OAQPS No. 1.2-032) .
4-9
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be used as a surrogate for ambient air quality. The method involved
is very straightforward. The WQM planning agency must obtain an up-to-
date emission inventory for the area and a set of emission factors appli-
cable to the types of air pollution sources in the area. If no emission
inventory has been prepared by a local or State air quality planning organi-
zation, then the National Emission Data System (NEDS) can provide a basic
inventory for most metropolitan areas in the country. In non-metropolitan
areas and where no emission inventory exists, an emission inventory can
be developed from emission factors and units of production activity.*
Using the baseline emission inventory developed for the area, and the
applicable emission factors, changes in industrial, transportation and
residential development caused by the alternative WQM plan elements can
be converted to changes in pollutant emissions. For example, in the case
of domestic and industrial space heating with natural gas, the emission
factor for particulates is "x" pounds of particulates per 1,000 cubic
feet of natural gas burned. Therefore, a change in residential development
where natural gas is used can be estimated on the basis of average usage
of natural gas. Similar relationships exist for transportation and indus-
trial air pollutant emissions as a function of their activity (e.g., pounds
of sulfur dioxide emissions per ton of steel production). Based on the
estimated changes in industrial capacity due to the WQM plan, a projected
emission inventory for industrial outputs can be made to compare the emis-
sions impact of alternative elements of the WQM plan.**
These types of comparisons deal with emissions rather than air
quality. Air quality levels are not necessarily directly related to pol-
lutant emissions. However, it may be necessary to limit the air quality
impact assessment to the emission inventory analysis due to the short
planning period and limited planning resources. If this is necessary,
the professional judgment of the air quality planning agency may be suf-
ficient to determine the qualitative relationships between emission and
ambient air quality. If there is a severe air quality problem, however,
an emission analysis may be insufficient and an ambient air quality analysis
may be required.
The use of emission inventory changes is also the basis for an
emission quota analysis. However, in this type of analysis a prior calculation
* Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, #AP-42, 2nd Edition, EPA
April 1973.
**
Guidelines for Air Quality Mainenance Planning and Analysis and Volume 7;
Projecting County Emissions, EPA Report Number (450/4-74-013)..
4-10
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is assumed which relates maximum allowable emissions to ambient air quality
and the national air quality standards. These maximum allowable emissions
are assigned to each geographic subarea and provide a reference in terms
of the emission inventory. This allows for a direct comparison between
changes in the emission inventory resulting from the alternative elements
of the WQM plan and the maximum emissions allowable under the national
or State standards. The calculation of changes in emission inventory
are the same as in the previous example. The professional judgment which
was absolutely necessary to make the leap from emissions to ambient air
quality is supported in this method by the atmospheric simulations that
were made to determine maximum allowable emissions.
If an ambient air quality analysis is necessary, an atmospheric
simulation model should be use. Atmospheric simulation models can be
categorized into three general groups: 1) models dealing with areawide or
aggregated emissions only; 2) models requiring specific information about
point, line and area sources such as smokestacks, highways and buildings;
and 3) models requiring area source emissions allocated on a subcounty
basis. This report also provides specific references on each of modeling
techniques mentioned below. The following discussion is presented to acquaint
the WQM agency with the methodologies available to assist them in dealing
with air quality maintenance planning agencies or State agencies. It
is not expected that the WQM planning agency undertake such methods on
its own. It is also important to note that air quality maintenance planning
may have been established in the area to deal with a specific pollutant,
while the WQM plan may affect other or all pollutants. Professional
judgment will be required to seek the appropriate level of analysis.
The air quality planning agencies at the State, local or regional level
can assist in making this determination and should be consulted.
The first category encompasses models which are limited to con-
sideration of only areawide air pollutant emissions. There is no identi-
fication of individual point sources or specific area sources. The meteoro-
logical input is in terms of very general parameters, such as average
wind speed and average mixing height (up to the inversion layer). Air
pollution concentrations estimated with such models are either averages
for the whole area or are site specific and apply only where there are
air quality data. These models include the Rollback Model, the Appendix
J HC-OX Relationship and the Miller-Holzworth Model. These models have
limited usefulness for evaluating specific air quality impacts. They
For a more detailed discussion, see EPA's Guidelines for Air Quality Main-
tenance Planning and Analysis, Volume 12, applying Atmospheric Simulation
Models to Air Quality Maintenance Areas.
4-11
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can only determine the impact of total pollutant emissions on air quality.
They cannot consider in any way how these emissions or the resulting
air quality levels are spatially distributed across an area.
The second class of models is that which considers, in detail,
point source, line source, and area source emissions of pollutants.
These models have detailed requirements for meteorological inputs and
consider complex atmospheric mechanisms for estimating the downwind trans-
port, dispersion and chemical transformation of pollutants. These models
can be used to estimate concentrations at any specific site in an area
for which estimates are desired. This type of model includes the Air
Quality Display Model and the Sampled Chronological Input Model. For
cases where there is a lack of detailed point and line source data, the
input to these models can be limited to area source emissions, wherein
all point and line source emissions are summed in the area sources.
It should be noted that such a summation, should it be necessary, will
detract considerably from the reliability of the models.
The last class of models is that which addresses only specific
area source emissions. This includes the SAI Photochemical Simulation
Model and the Hanna-Gifford Model. The SAI model is a sophisticated
photochemical dispersion model which does not specifically consider point
sources. The Hanna-Gifford model is a simplified area source model for
stable pollutants (i.e., pollutants that do not enter into chemical and
photochemical reactions). While this model does not consider point and
line sources, the impact of point or line sources can be individually
determined by the application of a point source model or a line source
model such as HIWAY. Both the SAI and the Hanna-Gifford models allow con-
centrations to be estimated for any pf the designated areas.
For those areas with very poor information on the spatial dis-
tribution of pollutant emissions, the application of the first type
of simulation model (e.g., Rollback, Appendix J Miller-Holzworth) is suggested.
Where possible the Miller-Holzworth model is preferred for estimating
areawide concentrations of SC>2 and suspended particulate matter. Where
oxidant concentrations must be estimated, either the Appendix J or Rollback
approach may be necessary.
In those areas where there is detailed information on pollutant
emissions (current emissions and projected emissions to 1985), and where
it is expected that air quality impacts would be significant, the AQDM,
SCIM, APRAC-1A or SAI models may be used, depending on the averaging
times and the pollutants to be considered. In those cases where the
pollutant emissions projected to 1985 can only be known on an area-source
basis, it is recommeded that either the Hanna-Gifford or the AQDM be used.
4-12
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The data requirements, model outputs and general performance of
these various models are summarized in Table 5-2. The summary is structured
from the most elementary to the most sophisticated models. In the table,
"1's" indicate factors which are the most general or the easiest with
which to work increasing numbers indicate factors which are more detailed
or difficult. The EPA guidelines on "Applying Atmospheric Simulation
Models to Air Quality Maintenance Areas" examines the models listed in
Table 5-2 in greater detail, discusses the emissions and meteorological
requirements to operate these models, and identifies the availability
and reliability of these models.
The models discussed here are not the only ones for relating
emissions to air quality. Other models which have been summarized in
the EPA report are available from private consultants and other governmental
agencies. The models discussed in Table 5-2 are those most readily available
to air pollution control agencies and representative of the state-of-the-
art for atmospheric simulation models.
4-13
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Table 5-2 - Summary of Simulation Model Characteristics
Averaging
Pollutant Time
Model Speclfl- Spcclfl- Emission
Name cation cation Data
Rollback
Appendix J
Miller-
Holzworth
Hanna-
Gifford
Hanna-
Gifford
1
2
2
2
2
1
3
2
2
3
1
1
1
1
2
Meteor-
ological
Data
1
1
3
2
5
Concen-
tration
Estimates
3
3
3
3
2
Ease of
Use
1
1
1
1
2
Avail-
ability
1
1
1
1
1
Rel1-
abi 1 1 ty
3
3
1
1
1
Applicability
to AQM
3
?
3
3
2
w. Point Source
model
w. HI WAY
AQDM
SCIM
APRAC-1A
SAI
2
2
2
2
2
1
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
5
5
4
5
5
5
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
3
2
3
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
Key to Table 5-2
E.
A. Pollutant Specification
1. Any Pollutant
2. Specific Pollutants
B. Averaging-tine Specification
1. Any Averaging-time F
2. Long-term Average
3. Short-term Peak
C. Emission Data
1. Area-wide Emissions Total p
2. Total emission distributed as finite area sources
3. Detailed point, line and area sources
D. Meteorological Data
1. None H
?. Average wind speed
3. Average wind speed and mixing height
4. Frequency distribution of wind direction, wind speed,
stability and mixing height
5. Hourly variations of wind direction, wind speed, stability'
and mixing height
Source: EPA report number (450/4-74-013),
Planning and Analysis Volume 12: Applying
Concentration Estimates
1. Estimates at any specified point
2. One estimate for each area source grid
3. One estimate applicable to entire AQMA
Ease of Use
1. Slide-rule
2. Small computer effort
3. Major computer effort
Availability
1. Open literature
2. National Technical Information Service
3. EPA, upon request
Reliability
1. Can be verified and calibrated
2. Verification Is incomplete, possibility of calibration
is uncertain
3. Questionable, acceptable for crude estimates only
Applicability to AQM
1. Can distinguish between specific source and land use typi
2. Can distinguish between land use types only
3. Considers no distinction betv/een sources or land user.
Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance
Atmospheric Simulation Models to Air
Quality Maintenance Areas.
4-14
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ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
Biology, the study of living things, and ecology, the study
of the relationship between living things and their environment, clearly
encompass concerns covered in other parts of this handbook (land,
air, water, etc.). This chapter discusses the ways in which ecological
impacts likely to occur from the implementation of WQM plans may be
assessed. In a sense, the abundance, quality and diversity of wildlife
and vegetation can be used as indicators of the "health" of ecological
systems, and will be the major focus of this chapter.
It is difficult, if not impossible, to separate wildlife and
vegetation from the physical places in which they exist (habitats)
and from their functional role within the ecosystem (ecological niche).
The number and distribution of animals is, in part, a function of
the plants, soils and climate of an area. In order to understand
what is happening (or more importantly what will happen) because of
the implementation of a WQM plan it would be useful to identify the
major ecosystems present within the planning area and the interrelationships
between the component parts, i.e., food producers (green plants),
consumers (plant and animal eaters, parasites, decomposer organisms,
scavengers) and nonliving components. Once these components are identified,
it is then possible to describe how the system functions. The number
of species, distribution and abundance of plants and animals; the
physical and chemical limiting factors (e.g., weather, toxics); the
amount and rate of production of living matter (productivity); and
the way in which the system is changing over time describe the "status"
of the ecosystem, determine its stability and the way in which impacts
to it will be felt. Although a detailed ecological investigation
of an area would require analysis of all these factors, for the purpose
of most WQM plan assessments it will usually be sufficient to look
at major plants and animal populations, food chains, and limiting
factors in the environment.
5-1
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Although certain ecosystems may be commonly recognized as significant
because of their "uniqueness", fragility or the presence of rare and/or
endangered species, significance can also be defined by the function
which the ecosystem provides to man. Wetlands may protect against
flooding and help replenish the water supply; woodlands may buffer
noise, filter air pollutants, provide a marketable product and a
recreational resource; hillsides provide visual amenities (views, variety
and recreational resources) and, their disturbance may have undesirable
effects (erosion, landslides); even large open spaces may provide
a habitat for wildlife and vegetation which may have an educational
or aesthetic value because of the relief from development. Landscaping
and house-siting considerations associated with new development can
contribute to or hinder the diversity of vegetation and wildlife in the
commupity by creating -a space in which they may flourish.*
Actions prescribed by water quality management plans have the
potential of impacting plant and animal life and the ecosystems in
which they exist. For example, the construction of a sewage treatment
facility or the development of temporary water storage areas may result
directly in the elimination of vegetation or wildlife. Decreasing the
flow of a stream may lower the rate of fish production which can have
ecological, recreational, economic or scientifically important implications.
Still more devastating are wide reaching changes in whole communities
of plants and animals which can occur when key environmental changes
occur.
There are several key questions to be asked in conducting an
assessment of the vegetation and wildlife impacts resulting from imple-
mentation of water quality management plan.
Key Questions
What are the major ecosystems within the water quality
management planning area? What are the major forms of
vegetation and wildlife?
What biological significance (e.g., essential link in
food chain, rare or endangered species) or relation to
community goals (e.g., unique scenic value, recreational
or economic resource, air or water quality, public safety.
State definitions of "critical environmental areas", etc.)
do the ecosystems exhibit?
How will the elements of the WQM plan affect the natural
succession of ecosystems, productivity of primary pro-
ducers and secondary consumers, abundance of populations,
and diversity of organisms at the community level?
Performance Controls for Sensitive Lands: A Practical Guide for Local
Administrators. EPA 600/5 - 15 - 005, Office of Research and
Development.
5-2
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Unlike environmental considerations of air and water quality
where law and long standing custom dictate standards, biological con-
siderations are rarely guided by an established set of criteria.
The National Environmental Policy Act speaks in terms of impact charac-
teristics such as short vs. long term effects and irreversible losses.
The Endangered Species Act of 1973 (P. L. 92-205) provides for the
conservation of endangered fish, wildlife and plants, while the Migra-
tory Bird Treaty Act (16 U. S. C. 701-711) and similar State laws
protect the breeding and resting places of migratory birds. In some
cases, management objectives as stated by environmental resource agencies
(e. g., protection of "critical environmental areas") may be used
as surrogate standards for estimating the importance of changes in
biological systems or particular species. However, with the exception
of endangered species lists, assessments often must rely upon the
best professional judgment of biologists and ecologists coupled
with input from local citizens.
ECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT PARAMETERS
In assessing ecological impacts it is important to emphasize
that ecosystems constantly change. All man caused impacts must be
identified and interpreted within the context of natural changes
which cause ecosystems to change and adjust until they reach a state
of dynamic equilibrium. An important ecological concept in under-
standing changes in ecosystems is succession.
Succession is the name given to the process by which natural
systems increasingly accumulate and regulate a dependable cycle of
nutrients and flow of energy through the system from primary producers
(plants) to animal consumers to microbiological recycling groups. In
its classic forms, succession may begin on a land base in which the
processes of soil formation and the gradual elaboration of plant and
animal communities occur as an interrelated process. Succession also
occurs in aquatic settings. For example, water bodies (e.g., lakes)
will gradually become enriched through the accumulation of nutrients
and sediments deposited from the erosion of their surrounding watershed
and the accumulation of organic material from successive generations
of plant and animal growth. This natural process of increasing nutrients
and plant growth is known as eutrophication. The process of eutro-
phication raises an interesting question because, although it represents
a "natural" process (albeit often accelerated due to human intervention)
the end point is often perceived as undesirable by the local populace.
Given the concept of a dynamic ecosystem and the relationship between
the component parts described above, the following parameters should
be considered in conducting the assessment:
5-3
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Major^ Forms of Vegetation and Wildlife
Information concerning species of plants and animals and their
proportional and geographical distribution in the ecosystem provides
a basis for interpreting the stage of succession and whether or not
particular biologic communities are representative of regional
ecological conditions. In addition, the ability of a particular
species with the development patterns which may be associated
with a WQM plan should be identified. (The investigator
should be sensitive to seasonal fluctuations in conducting
ecosystem analyses.)
Density is the number of individuals per unit of
area (e.g., extent of coverage, number of deer or
mature trees/acre). Density is most meaningful
when the area is defined in terms of "habitable"
space.
Diversity is the number of different species present.
It is a significant parameter because of the positive
correlations between diversity and ecological
stability.*
Biological Productivity is usually a measure of
the rate at which primary producers (green plants)
create food (carbohydrates, fats and proteins) that
is required for themselves and all secondary consumers
in the ecosystem. In, some instances, productivity may
refer to the rate at which all species or particular
species in a community accumulate organic matter.
The measurements of productivity are given in total
weight or volume (biomass) per unit area per time
(e. g., 100 bushels of corn per acre per year) or
energy equivalents (e. g., calories per sq. meter
per day).
In discussing diversity, it is important to note both the number of
different species and the abundance or number of individuals within
each species.
5-4
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Food Chains and Food Webs
Food chains classically measure the interrelationship
between primary producers (green plants) and the several
levels of animal consumers. Most contemporary descriptions
carry the process from plants and consumer groups to the
bacteria and fungi that finally break down ecosystem
wastes into basic mineral constituents for recycling
back to primary producers. Because in any one ecosystem
there are often several food chains, the relationship
between and combination of all the food chains is referred
to as the food web. Although it is not necessary to
describe the entire food web for all the systems within
the WQM planning area, information describing the food
chains for animal and plant populations which have
commerical, biological (e.g., endangered species, unique),
or recreational (e.g., sports fishing) significance would
be useful. The important thing to remember is the inter-
dependencies between components of the food web and the
potential of "indirectly" affecting an organism determined
to be significant by affecting a component of its food
chain.
Interrelationships with Non-Living Matter
Plants, animals and microbes influence the chemical
composition of air, water and soil and moderate the
physical forces of nature on the earth's surface. The
chemical equilibrium of gaseous elements is affected
by organisms in the air, land and water. By-products
of plant and animal activity also change the nutrient
quality of soil and water by removing or adding such
substances as nitrogen, phosphorus, calcium, iron, and
sulphur. Furthermore, the physical presence of plants
can reduce erosion, dampen the force of waves and currents,
slow winds and alter the temperature of the air. Outputs
of the air, water, and land impact assessments are also
inputs to the assessment of vegetation, wildlife, and habitat
impacts. To the extent that the outputs of alternative elements
of a WQM plan affect the range and quality of habitats, they will
affect the vegetation and wildlife present. Species tend to spread
out with the availability of suitable habitat; however, this
tendency is checked by a number of factors. "Barriers" and "high-
ways" (natural and man-made) which inhibit the spread are para-
meters to note as part of the assessment.
5-5
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ASSESSMENT METHODS
The major decision facing the planner regarding methodology
is the amount of information necessary in order to develop a reasonable
understanding of the character of natural occurrences and the influence
which human action will place on that character. Professional judgement
and a thorough awareness of community interests are the yardsticks
with which to measure the required level-of-effort on information
gathering. Two basic sources for ecological data: existing sources
or original field study can be used.
Before embarking upon an original field study effort, the
planner should first take advantage of any existing data or studies.
This may include efforts to map critical environmental areas, perhaps
undertaken for another purpose (e. g., flood plain management, an
environmental impact statement), in depth studies of a particular
species or site, as part of a university effort, or an inventory of
significant plants and animals as part of a federal or State fish
and wildlife program or a local planning effort. In any event, in
order for this data to be useful, the planner should already have
a series of questions or data needs against which the data can be
compared. This is important to avoid the situation of over-emphasizing
an area merely because there is a data base on it. Existing data
sources typically include the scientific literature (abstracts, journals
and books), public and private professionals, universities, knowledgeable
local individuals and groups .
Good baseline data is available through many public agencies and
institutions. The Soil Conservation Service generally can supply maps
and in some cases baseline information for local areas related to soils
and their productivity, origin and use. Topographic maps can be obtained
from the U. S. Geological Survey for selected areas. Standard black and
white aerial photos can be obtained through Agricultural Stabilization and
Conservation Service. Indices of forest growth can be obtained from the
U. S. Forest Service. State and Federal Fish and Wildlife Agencies also
have many ecological research reports. It is likely that most WQM plan-
ning areas contain Federally sponsored projects that have NEPA impact
assessments and assembled data. There may also be equivalent impact
studies done for State projects in those States having environmental
statutes similar to NEPA.
Some Federal agencies have specialized research institutions that
offer reports on natural systems or physical features of the environment.
Some of the most applicable are:
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U. S. Army Corps of Engineering, Waterways Experiment
Station
U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Office of Biological
Services
U. S. Geological Survey
U. S. Coast and Geodetic Survey
U. S. Forest Service, specialized regional research units
U. S. Park Service, regional research units
Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service,
Cooperative States Research Service, Agricultural Experi-
ment Stations at each Land Grant University
Smithsonian Institute, Science Information Exchange
As part of the literature search,it is useful to review the indices
and compile a bibliography for further investigation. These indices are
published annually with the first year of publication in parenthesis
followed by a brief abstract of the topics covered, and a statement on
how the material is indexed. Five of the most common indices are as
follows:
Bibliographic Index (1937): A cumulative bibliography
of bibliographies. Included are bibliographies published
separately or as parts of books and pamphlets; also, biblio-
graphic material from about 1900 periodicals. Indexed by
subject.
e Biological Abstracts (1927): Consists of abstracts and
indices to biological research literature from approximately
7600 journals throughout the world; affording optimum
retrieval of pertinent references within all areas of
biology. Indexed annually by author, subject, biosystematic
and cross indices with detailed instruction on how to use them.
Biosis; List of periodicals indexed for Biological Abstracts.
Biological & Agricultural Index (1916): Subject index to
periodicals related to biology and agriculture; also indexed
by title of article, author, and journal.
Dissertation Abstracts (1938): A monthly compilation of
abstracts of doctoral dissertations submitted by institutions
from U. S., Canada, and Europe. Cumulative key word and
author index.
5-7
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Although in many instances research findings will be published
in scientific journals or by local institutions, often study results
can be obtained only from the individuals who have performed the work.
Researchers are often reluctant to simply pass on information to impact
assessors. Therefore, when individual scientists have long experience
in the area, it may be advisable to employ them as specialized consultants
for parts of the impact assessment.
Data collection may range from simple gathering of existing data
(species lists, soils surveys, topographic maps, etc.), to complex
statistical designs used to organize field data collection. Regardless
of the strategy used for the collection of baseline data, it is important
that a methodology, however simple, be formulated to outline the problem
and set forth objectives for the assessment. The methodology should lead
to the determination of significant impacted ecosystems in the affected
region.
It is common that specialists in the life sciences must rely on
knowledge about the physical and chemical qualities of the environment
to understand the behavior of the biological part of the ecosystem.
Therefore, the work of the physical scientists or engineers must be co-
ordinated to the needs of the life scientists. For instance, engineers
working with water quality and hydrologic models can usually present
information to aquatic ecologists necessary for understanding baseline
conditions or forecasting changes in the biota from anticipated water
quality improvements. Engineers, however, do not usually use all the
same parameters for their studies as do aquatic ecologists. Adapting
water quality models to include data needed by both aquatic biologists
and engineers can eliminate redundant research efforts and provide
greater congruity of data throughout program planning.
It is important to guarantee that information developed by the
ecological team can be expressed in public interest or economic terms
which can be understood in the political process. Careful attention
to environmental issues as they are expressed by regional agencies or
interest groups is necessary in order that the ecological impact team
can know in advance what issues are critical. Without such knowledge
of the issues, valuable research efforts can be lost as peripheral or
unnecessary studies are carried out.
Besides availability and format of data, other problems inherent
in using published and unpublished materials include incongruity in
terms of the time sequencing of data, and the great variability in
where and how data has been collected. In some cases, incongruities
make any valid picture of the regional ecosystem almost scientifically
impossible. One way of dealing with this data problem is to carry
out sufficient investigations to validate earlier research reports
by replicating field study experiments. This involves the second
source of data original study.
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Original study usually includes a field effort where the in-
vestigator studies the area and describes ecosystems with respect
to the parameters discussed earlier. While field study provides
information directly related to the impact study area, it is often
costly and time-consuming. In order to understand or adequately
describe many natural processes, the study should span the annual
seasonal changes within which plants and animals carry out their
life cycles. However the variance in natural processes from place
to place and from year to year means it is not possible to accurately
describe general (or average) conditions within an area on the basis
of only one year or even several years study. It is therefore usually
advisable to avoid original studies that require lengthy fieldwork
unless there is a clear expectation that the WQM plan will impact a
significant ecological resource whose life requirements are poorly
understood and must be fully studied within the time and cost constraints
of the impact study.
There are a number of things which can be done to shorten the
survey effort and in most cases would be appropriate for the purposes
of the ecosystem assessment. Time requirements can be shortened by
concentrating on those elements of the ecosystem which tend to accumulate
their history on the site. For example, terrestrial productivity can
be measured by examining the growth rate of older trees which can yield
as much as hundreds of years of productivity analyses. In the case
of aquatic environments, it may be possible to analyze the stratified
sediments of lakes or streams to gain data on chemical or biological
events that have occurred over many years.
Aquatic study is somewhat more complicated because of the
difficulty in locating and seeing aquatic organisms. In flowing
water or in coastal environments, natural conditions may create physical
forces that rapidly shift plant and animal populations and induce wide
daily, seasonal or yearly fluctuations in species, population size,
productivity, water chemistry and substrate quality. Because of this
great variability in the physical environment, field studies must be
carried out more often for any given place in the aquatic system than
on land. Where one trip to a sample plot in a terrestrial setting
may yield all the necessary data, an equivalent aquatic sample area
may require weekly or monthly sampling to adequately generalize ecosystem
conditions. Again, the rationale for undertaking any study should
be reviewed before commitments are made for expensive and time-consuming
studies.
Another way of reducing study time is to concentrate on interpreting
habitat groupings rather than studying particular species. This is
especially true in the case of animals whose wide variation of occurrence,
mobility and secretive habits make them difficult to observe. An
analysis of habitats can provide a reasonable estimation of the likely
occurrence of particular animal species because of their association
with particular habitats.
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Vegetation, and significant components of habitats can be assessed
in a number of ways, ranging from the very simple to the complex.
The potential for vegetation can be determined in part from the
amount of open space within the area. The type of vegetation present
can be determined by actual survey, from aerial photos or other
existing studies.
In both terrestrial and aquatic cases, it is often advantageous
to use remote sensing techniques* to further reduce the field activity.
Conventional black and white, infra-red and high altitude (aerial or
satellite) photos and scans can provide regional and site specific
data on soils, water, land forms, ecosystem types, productivity and,
where time series photos are available, successional changes and
trends. Aerial photos are also helpful for reducing preliminary
field reconnaissance requirements for sampling designs. The infra-
red photographs are also useful to indicate the "health" of the
vegetation. Once the amount of vegetation and significant species
are determined, diversity and abundance can be assessed- by measuring
the number of different species present and the number of members
of each species per habitable area (density). There are a range of
quantitative techniques available for collecting and assessing the
vegetation, its quality, diversity and abundance, and for organizing
it into meaningful categories by geographic (quadrants) and bio-
logical (e. g., trees, shrubs) units.**
Much of the vegetation analysis may be utilized to assess the
quality of wildlife habitats. "Highways" (trails, level ground), open
space, food and water, a suitable climate as well as the absence of
"barriers" to wildlife movement will contribute to a favorable habitat.
In addition, it will be necessary to study the quality of the water to
determine the suitability for aquatic life.
If habitat analysis, preliminary field survey or
previous study indicate the presence of significant wildlife,
it may be desirable to assess its density. Most techniques for
measuring density involve sampling or limited controlled experiments.
Examples include measuring the number of insects caught or birds
seen in an hour, capturing and tagging a predetermined number of
animals and releasing them, and, on a subsequent day, capturing the
same number and determining the proportion with tags. In addition,
nests and other signs of wjIdlife can be used as surrogates.
Wildlife can be evaluated according to density and diversity, as
with vegetation. Daily and seasonal variation will require attention
Once again, biology and ecology textbooks as well as Land Develop-
ment and the Natural Environment contain discussion of and
references to specific techniques.
Areawide Assessment Procedures Manual, Volume II, Land Use Data Col-
lection and Analysis, EPA-600/9-76-014, July 1976, Municipal Environ-
mental Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S.
EPA, Cincinnati, Ohio 45768.
k
Land Development and the Natural Environment: Estimating Impacts, Dale
L. Keyes, The Urban Institute, April 1976.
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BASELINE DEVELOPMENT
Information derived from existing sources and field studies
should be organized into a clear baseline description of existing
and projected conditions. These conditions would include significant
environmental areas (such as wetlands, woodlands, sand beaches,
aquifers, etc.), significant vegetation, major forms of wildlife,
and areas which may be important to community values such as large
open spaces. Sound professional judgment should be used in determining
the level of detail and extent of information gathering. Emphasis should
be placed on areas where positive or negative impacts are likely.
Lists by themselves are not particularly useful for sub-
sequent impact assessment. In order to be meaningful, the information
should be categorized (e. g. , rare and endangered species, unique
areas) according to criteria which will provide an indication of
ecosystem health and therefore of future trends such as density,
diversity and abundance. The reproductive characteristics (e. g.,
birth and death rates) of primary wildlife can be noted and related
to the growth curve to identify trends. As previously discussed,
much of this information will be available through existing sources.
In some instances where States have developed programs for the pro-
tection of "critical environmental areas", there may be a data base
already prepared on areas within the WQM planning area.
Since ecosystems are dynamic, the baseline should emphasize
changes and trends rather than static inventory type descriptions.
It is important to describe the dynamics of the habitats of
significant species. Baselines should portray the geographical
distribution of ecosystem types and provide an understanding of
how biological and chemical matter flows between the types.
Relative differences in productivity among described ecosystems
should also be identified. Major elements of the food web (sources
of food and predators), migration patterns (highways) and habitats
for significant wildlife should be noted.
Information concerning diversity, the food chain, and growth
characteristics will indicate the likelihood for the continuation
of current trends. Knowledge of proposed land use changes will
help determine loss of any key habitats, disruption of highways
and creation of barriers. Similarly expected trends in air and
water quality, noise levels, the introduction of new species
through additional landscaping, and agricultural practices (e. g. ,
herbicides and pesticides), all will contribute to the continuation
or disruption of existing trends.
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It is especially important to recognize that there is much un-
certainty in the baseline analysis. Care should be taken to identify
uncertainty so as to avoid the impression that precise information
is being given about complex environmental features which are in
no sense fully comprehended by science in any of its forms.
Aids for organizing baseline data and projections and illustrating
relationships have been critically reviewed by EPA.*Since there "is
no one best technique, it is important that the WQM plan administrator
and the impact assessment staff review and select the most appropriate
presentation method prior to the start of actual work. Anticipating
the way the final assessment product will appear should influence
the design of research.
IMPACT ASSESSMENT
The process of assessing impacts should focus on evaluating
the changes in the ecosystem that were described in the baseline
projections.
Assessment of impacts from alternative elements of the WQM
plan resulting in specific project sites related to construction or
operation activities such as replacements of existing ecosystems by
structures is fairly straightforward. These impacts typically have
such measurable characteristics as the amount of landscape changed or
particular physical or chemical alterations which are qualities of the
project itself (e. g., construction of a pier, dredging, heated
effluent, etc.).
Assessment of impacts from general development plans or policies
are considerably harder to measure with accuracy. For instance,
the WQM plan may forecast a large improvement in the quality of surface
waters allowing for greater domestic, industrial, or recreational
use of water. Accomplishing this aim may result in further expansion
of industrial sites, residential and commercial areas, or the creation
of new recreational units in the region. Each of these activities
will in turn generate changes within the ecology of the region.
For example, urban expansion may cause increases in nonpoint source
runoff, perhaps off-setting water quality gains from improved point
source management. Likewise increased attractiveness of waterbodies
may induce more waterfront recreational demand placing greater stress
on the shoreline and aquatic plants and animals. In addition, some
consideration will have to be given to activities in adjacent areas
because of their influence on water quality, land use and habitats.
Identification of ecological changes and their assessment as
adverse or beneficial rests on two different approaches: ecological
and resource evaluation. Any changes in the system that cause one or
more of the following to occur could be considered detrimental:
A Review of Environmental Impact Assessment Methodologies, Report
No. 600/5-74-002, Office of Research and Development, 1974.
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reduction in the number of species or in specific species
designated as rare or endangered,
alteration in the biomass or number of species in each of
the major trophic categories,
acceleration of the rate of biological productivity over
the rate of energy use and nutrient recycling in the system
(depending on the season),
decrease in beneficial use of water (as defined by water
quality standards).
As previously discussed, the methods for ecosystem assessment are
less well defined than air and water quality models for example. There-
fore, the assessment (especially in the areas of productivity, energy
use and nutrient recycling) will have to rely upon professional judgement,
an understanding of the critical ecosystems and major forms of wildlife
and vegetation, as well as of proposed patterns of land use and pollution
discharge. For most areas, ecosystem impacts will result from changes in
land use development or water quality.
The planner will have to assess how the alternative elements of a
WQM plan will affect the conditions identified in the baseline: amount of
land classified as "critical", presence of major wildlife and vegetation
(determined by looking at changes in open space, in number of mature trees,
new landscaping, changes in air or water quality and noise level, intro-
duction of new predators through domestic pets, etc.), and changes in the
abundance, diversity or reproductive characteristics of wildlife (deter-
mined, in part, by looking at changes in "habitable" areas, food sources,
barriers to movement, etc.). In addition, nonpoint source best management
practices (e. g., percent of lot coverage, agricultural practices, street
sweeping, etc.) should not be overlooked in terms of their impacts.
Changes in land use and water quality can be directly related to the
specific parameters which have been determined, through the baseline
development, to be significant. There have been a number of studies
which have attempted to monitor ecological changes which have resulted
from urbanization.
Once all of the key changes have been identified, it will be
necessary to assess their importance. Clearly, impacts to areas
designated as "critical" by the State or local governments for pur-
poses of flood management, water supply, or vegetation and wildlife
classified as rare or endangered can be assessed in a rather straight-
forward manner. Other impacts however are less obvious.
According to the resource evaluation approach, benefits or losses
in ecosystem quality are understood in reference to the production of
resources having social-economic meaning. Since the values society
attributes to resources vary so greatly among individuals and interest
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groups, it is impossible to assign an absolute value to resource impacts.
For instance, a shift in water temperature may change the aquatic community
from a cold, to a warmer water system. Sport fish species may change from
trout to bass. From the point of view of trout fishermen, the water quality
change produced an adverse effect; not so with the bass fishermen.
The best that the planner can do is to recognize that ecosystems
can function in several modes and produce a wide range of socially defined
resources. It is necessary, therefore, to identify as fully as possible,
the variety of social values in the impact area and to evaluate adverse
or beneficial changes according persons beneficially or adversely effected
by ecosystem alterations.
Public participation is required to develop a judgement on the kind
and relative importance of community values. Certainly the- ecologists
should take part in the public participation activities to help explain
the significance of their studies and findings, and to discover public
issues that may require further development of ecological impact assess-
ments in social value terms.
Changes in the use of water and land may substitute human activities
for existing productive ecosystems. Such a substitution may meet present
social needs, but can be interpreted as a trade-off between present need
and long term resource production. In other cases, there may be a shift
in ecosystem production resulting from changed land use that will, over
a time, produce new resources that can be viewed in terms of their long
term potential. The trout vs. bass example given earlier is typical in
this respect.
The evaluation of irreversible losses is a key problem. Are the
ecosystems lost common or rare? Are they important in the region's
economy? Are they low or high in the production of resources? Are they
critical to the health or productivity of other ecosystems? These and
other evaluation questions should be addressed in order that a common
sense interpretation of lost environmental values can be presented.
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ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT
The economic impacts resulting from alternative elements in a
water quality management plan generally fall into three major categories.
First, those economic impacts felt by the private sector such as the
benefits of clean water for industrial processes, or the costs of waste
treatment user fees or the costs of providing pretreatment to industrial
effluent; second, those economic impacts felt by various units of local
government such as the public cost of street sweeping or the local share
of treatment plant construction costs; and finally, those indirect economic
impacts that are felt by the public and private sectors of the area as
a result of the direct impacts such as a change in local tax revenues
(e.g., from property or sales taxes) due to increases or decreases in
employment of impacted industries and linked economic activities.
There are several key questions that usually need to be answered
in an economic impact assessment of alternative elements of a WQM plan.
Key Questions
What is the expected direct employment and other
impacts of a proposed policy or other action?
What other employment and economic activity changes
are generated as a result of the direct impact?
Other related impacts (discussed later in this section) could include
changes in population, income, per capita income, public finances, or
other impact categories.
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How are the employment, personal income and population
effects likely to be distributed geographically in the
impacted area?
How are these impacts likely to be distributed among various
economic classes or social groups?
What are the fiscal management impacts on local units
of government; that is, how are future local and public
revenues and costs likely to change?
What changes in personal income (primarily wages and salaries)
are expected to occur as a result of the total employment or
population impact?
What population changes are expected to occur as a result
of this employment impact?
What is the result of population age-sex ratios, fertility
rates and death rates on demographic characteristics?
How will these demographic characteristics change the longer
term population trends of the area?
The WQM plan will result in an environmental management process
which may include some or all of the following elements:
Municipal and industrial water treatment (e.g., sewers,
treatment plants)
Urban storm water control (e.g., street sweeping, sewer
separation)
Application of industrial pretreatment requirements
Land use controls (implemented, for example, through zoning)
Nonstructural urban nonpoint source controls (implemented,
for example, through permits and ordinances)
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Management practices to control agricultural, mining
and silvicultural sources
User charges
Residual waste management (e.g., sludge disposal)
Cost recovery regulations (for capital and operation
and maintenance costs of municipal treatment)
Pollution control enforcement activities
Water quality and effluent monitoring activities
For each of these elements (taken either singly or in combination)
there may be economic impacts on a project basis (e.g., capital, operating
and maintenance costs of treatment plants) and/or more global impacts
on the area's economy (e.g., changes in per capita income resulting
from industrial pollution control investments, or changes in the tax
base resulting from land use controls). These economic effects should
generally be assessed (over time) in terms of 1) required capital and
operating or maintenance outlays (and in some cases, user charges) by public
and private entities; 2) direct production, employment and/or personal
income impacts on private firms and public agencies being affected by the WQM
plan; 3) the indirect employment and income impacts resulting from the pur-
chases of products and services by these firms and agencies from other in-
dustrial sectors; 4) the induced employment and income impact resulting
from the purchase of goods and services by those directly and indirectly
receiving income from the affected entities; and 5) the overall effect of
the plan on public revenues and costs. The total (i.e., direct plus multiplier-
including indirect and induced effects) employment and income effects have
ramifications on the characteristics of an area (i.e., population, land use,
public costs and revenues, and so on).
There is a relationship between each element of the WQM plan
and the region's economy. Rather than explore each of these relationships,
two examples have been developed which encompass both a direct impact
on industry and range of impacts on land use. These examples highlight
the potential economic impacts associated with implementing particular
elements of a WQM plan. In both examples the emphasis is on the side
of negative impacts. Actual WQM plan elements may, of course, have
positive economic impacts. The examples are not intended to illustrate
the expected direction of impact, but rather the complex interrelation-
ships involved in assessing the impacts on both industry and land de-
velopment.
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Application of Industrial Pretreatment Requirements
Some industrial pretreatment requirements will be established
through Federal standards. However, areawide olans can
include industrial pretreatment as an option in their
plans (i.e., tighter standards or local standards in anti-
cipation of Federal standards). In either case, industrial
pretreatment offers a good opportunity to investigate local
economic impact.
The instituting of industrial pretreatment requirements
would usually impact directly upon industrial water
polluters of an area. These could be manufacturing firms
with substantial effluent that cannot be satisfactorily
handled at the municipal treatment facility due to the
chemical effect on the treatment process. Examples might be
certain types of firms involved in textile and leather production,
metals processing, chemical production, etc.
Industrial pretreatment may require such firms to increase
investments in waste treatment and to perform additional
operational and administrative activities to improve
effluent quality. Such functions entail both initial
capital costs and annual operating and maintenance costs.
These firms should also have to pay fees for the use
of municipal treatment facilities receiving pretreatment
effluent.
Some firms may be financially unable to meet the burden
of these various added costs. A corporation with
several plants producting the same commodity may shift
production to a plant in another area where the pretreatment
costs would not need to be incurred. Other firms may
decide not to locate in this area, or may not expand pro-
duction of plants already in the area, because of the
pretreatment costs. The costs may be different in other
parts of the country due to varying local controls.
Such decisions would result in fewer area jobs (i.e., workers)
than otherwise expected in the future. The loss of em-
ployment and production would likely lead to further
employment impacts as a result of lower area consumer
purchasing power (i.e., the income of workers used to
purchase area goods and services) and diminished pur-
chases of area goods and services by manufacturing
plants impacted by the pretreatment costs. Each of
these reactions would then lead to further rounds of
impact on employment and total personal income in the
area.
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Consequently, a plan requiring industrial pretreatment
may result in changes in employment and payroll among
firms directly impacted by the regulations. These direct
impacts would generate additional employment and personal
income impacts (i.e., multiplier effects) in the area. The
result would be lower consumer expenditures, less savings,
and lower public revenues. In addition, because there would
probably be diminished jobs, population might also be lower
in comparison to expected future levels due to out-migration
or less in-migration than otherwise expected in the future.
Water consumption and sewage effluent would be less than
otherwise expected in the future because of declines in
both population and industrial output. On the other hand,
fewer persons could result in lower future total public
investment and operating costs than what would be projected
without the added cost of industrial pretreatment. Also,
industrial pretreatment reduces municipal treatment costs
regardless of population changes and decrea'ses the likelihood
of treatment plant impacts and/or the release of toxic substances
to the environment.
The scenario depicted by the pretreatment example, especially
the potential for negative impacts, is more realistic in the
case of marginal plants than with healthy plants. In the case
of healthy plants, the increased expenditures on pollution
control equipment may in fact create a positive economic
impact. However, the example is presented to point out the
potential consequences of a control measure directed at in-
dustry.
Development Controls
Another type of WQM plan element would be the instituting
of various development controls. These could include land
use controls (for example zoning), sewer moratoria, sewer
permit regulations, or other development controls and incentives.
Where these controls tend to be used primarily to regulate
residential and transportation developments, the types of impact
are often similar to those previously discussed. For example,
controls on the area's residential development could tend to
constrain the size of the total labor pool in an area due to
the limitation of available housing. Commercial/industrial
growth may continue for some period following the residential
controls until the squeeze on labor supply is apparent
to firms bidding in the labor market. The immediate effect
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may be increased wages and salaries. The longer-term effect
is likely to be a steady state industrial/commerical employment
base and no population change. The impacts would be, as in
the previous example, lower gross levels (than expected in the
absence of controls) of employment, population, total personal
income, consumer expenditures and public revenues (but also
perhaps lower public costs). Alternatives to these (or per-
haps additional) effects may be longer distance commuting
by workers residing outside the area impacted by development
controls, or increased population and housing densities
(where controls would not totally constrain such growth)
in existing residential areas. In the latter case the mar-
ket price of housing would usually be bid up. Similarly,
property values would probably rise and this could result
in increased revenues from property taxes (alternatively,
tax rates may fall and property revenues remain constant).
However, a number of families are likely to be "priced-out",
leading to attempts to find satisfactory housing outside the
controlled area. Again the result could be "leap-frogging"
and longer distance commuting. The total impact may again
be gross declines (i.e., compared to what might be expected
without such controls) in area employment, population, per-
sonal income, and so on.
This development control example is presented to illustrate
the complex nature of related impacts rather than the
specific direction of impacts. For example the growth of
certain industries may be dependent on low density housing and
strict controls on residential land uses.
From these two examples it is apparent that there may be important
linkages between elements of a WQM plan and economic, demographic, land
use and other characteristics of an area. Many examples could be stated
and economic impacts may, on-balance, be positive or negative. For example,
though not discussed in the above examples, improvements in water quality
could lead to economic benefits resulting from an expansion in tourism
or retirement communities, or the attraction of less polluting and higher
paying industries (including professional service firms) seeking a cleaner
environment for management and workers. Property values, particularly
along waterways with lowered pollution levels, may also be "bid up," re-
sulting in greater accumulation of local wealth. Other types of local or
national benefits could include improvements (as a result of lowered water
pollution) that occur in commercial and recreational fishing, other recrea-
tional activities, or potable water supplies.
Those reviewing alternatives for a WQM plan should also i>
of the general likely impact of such policies on the local economy and
their ultimate impact on the revenues and expenditures of communities
in the area. Also, an assessment should be made of who bears the costs
or accumulates the benefits of improved water quality. Certain economic
clashes or minority groups may, for example, bear the largest protion
of costs (e.g., lost jobs and income, or higher taxes) and this should
be evaluated.
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ECONOMIC IMPACT CATEGORIES
For water quality management purposes, several of the more
important economic impact categories are the following:
Employment. This would usually be measured in terms of
annual person-years of employment in the area. This measure
compensates for part-time and short-term jobs. Sometimes,
though, employment statistics are only available at a particular
time or on a specific date during the year.
Population. Numbers of persons residing in an area in a particular
year.Again, these estimates may only be available on a specific
date during the year. (Population and employment are highly
correlated and one parameter may be calculated from the other as
discussed in subsequent sections of this chapter.)
Income. Generally measured in terms of area annual personal
income (defined as wages and salaries, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income, dividends, interest and
government and business transfer payments). Annual earnings
(defined as wages and salaries, other labor income plus proprietors'
income) may also be used as an indicator of area personal income,
especially since there is usually a relatively stable relationship
between earnings and personal income.
Per capita income. Determined from annual estimates of total in-
come and population measurements.
Economic activity by sector. This may be measured in terms
of annual output (i.e., production value or value added),
earnings or employment by appropriate sector (e.g., agricul-
ture, silviculture, mining, manufacturing, services).
Public revenues. Annual public revenues generated in the
area.
Public expenditures. Annual public capital and operating
and maintenance costs in the area.
Other economic impact categories may be total annual area output (i.e.,
production value), annual consumer expenditures or retail sales in
the area (this provides an indication of local business activity and the
frequency with which local revenues are raised via taxes on retail sales),
or annual average bank deposits. However, the priraary indicators of impact
are generally those listed above.
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The following sections provide descriptions of approaches and
procedures that can be used in providing estimates or measurements of
these impact categories as a part of assessing alternative water quality
management plan elements. The assumption used in preparing these estimates
is that a relationship exists over time (i.e., a trend is established)
among many of these factors; for example, between the following kinds
of statistics:
employment and population,
employment and earnings, or earnings per job by
industrial sector,
earnings and personal income,
personal income and retail sales,
population with personal income and public
revenues, and
population and public costs.
ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK
The WQM plan should assess the impacts of expected
alternative plan elements on employment, population, earnings and/or
personal income, per capita personal income, industrial activity,
perhaps retail sales, and public revenues and costs. In performing
these economic impact analyses, it is necessary to analyze the expected
impacts both "with" and "without" implementation of the proposed elements
of a WQM plan. This type of assessment is essential to estimating the
marginal impacts associated with alternative plan elements (singly
and in combination). Consequently, it is important at the outset to
establish "baseline" projections of primary areawide economic and demo-
graphic characteristics. These baseline projections establish the
"without" case; that is, what is expected to occur in the areawide
economy assuming a continuation of current trends / and conditions excluding
(i.e., without) implementation of the WQM plan. The "without" case,
or baseline projections, also assumes continuation (as appropriate)
of existing public policies in the environmental (i.e., non-208 actions,
such as Federal treatment standards) and other fields that may impact
upon the local economy.
To determine what is likely to occur as a result of implementing
any proposed water quality management plan alternatives, it is necessary
to determine the expected impacts of alternative (single and/or in com-
bination) actions, and then to add these calculations to the baseline pro-
jection to provide a "new" total estimate (i.e., "with" the proposed
6-8
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action) of future area conditions. In performing this assessment of alter-
native policy impacts, of critical and immediate importance is to be able to
provide good estimates of the expected direct economic impacts of such
actions. For example, some plant shut-downs, or plant relocations in or out of
the area, might occur sometime in the future (say in one, two, five, or
10 years) as the direct result of a present action. Being able to trace
the direct impacts such as thase of any proposed action is the basis of the
impact assessment. In addition, these direct impacts are likely to result
in "indirect" and "induced" (i.e., multiplier) effects stemming from changes
in industry product and service purchases and changes in worker earnings.
Consequently, these multiplier effects, resulting from the direct impacts,
must also be assessed.
The following sections outline procedures or approaches that may
be used in 1) developing baseline projections for an area economy and
2) determining the direct and overall impacts in a WQM area of proposed
alternative water quality management actions.
BASELINE DEVELOPMENT
Where possible, 20 year baseline projections (in 5-year in-
crements) should be performed for each of the areawide economic impact
categories (i.e., employment, population, earnings and/or personal income,
per capita personal income, industrial activity, retail sales, and public
revenues and costs). Because of time and financial resource constraints,
baseline projections would generally emphasize factors such as employment,
population, personal income, and employment (or earnings) by major indus-
trial sector.
Preparation of the baseline projections should start where possible
by making use of existing employment and population analyses. In general,
population projections are linked to employment projects, which are a func-
tion of the local economic structure and activity. Of particular importance
are those projections already being used by other local planners in the area
(e.g., HUD 701, transportation, air quality, etc.). Often a State planning
agency would provide the needed local area employment and population projections,
and/or there may be local disaggregations of statewide projections based on
independent analyses or on assessments performed by these sources or agencies.
For example, OBERS* provides historical data and projections to the
year 2020 of population, total employment, total personal income, per
capita personal income, total earnings, and earnings by industrial
sector. These data are available for the nation, each State (and the
District of Columbia), 173 BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis of the
U.S. Department of Commerce) economic areas blanketing the nation, the
20 water resources regions and 205 sub-areas of the nation delineated
by the Water Resources Council, the 253 SMSA's, the 173 non-SMSA portions
of BEA economic areas, and the 205 non-SMSA portions of water sub-areas.
U.S. Water Resources Council --
in the U.S. (Based on the Series E Projected National Population) , Vol.
I-VII, Washington, D.C., April 1974.
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These historical data are also generally available from BEA.
BEA (Regional Economic Analysis Division) will also contract with local
areas to develop or disaggregate these projections for single or multi-
county areas. These projections were made in 1970/1971 and care must
be used in working with these data. However, this work provides one
of the very few examples of a national projection with a series of
consistent local projections. These projections are now being revised
and should be available in 1977 or 1978.
In some cases, the WQM planning agency may disagree with employment
and population projections provided by the State or other sources,
or in use by other local planning agencies. In some areas the State
may take a very active role in coordinating projections to be used by
local agencies, thus minimizing disagreements. But in other States,
the agencies may have flexibility in selecting the projections. When
the WQM planning agency has some flexibility, it should select projections
which have the support of its advisory committees and local political
units; which are reasonable and can be defended on technical grounds;
and which, to the extent feasible, are compatible with other projections
used or prepared locally.
The WQM planning agency should use caution in extrapolating
historical employment and population trends to make population projections
Since some parts of the country are experiencing rapid changes in population
levels and distribution, certain historical trends occasionally may not
be adequate for projecting future conditions. Recent economic and social
factors, for example,a rapidly declining birth rate and high unemployment
levels, should be included in projections of local activity. Such
data for counties and other local areas are kept relatively current
by appropriate State agencies (e.g., employment service and health
departments).
If personal income projections (in constant dollars) for an area
do not exist (from the State or other sources) these could be estimated
directly from the employment projections. Historical county data
are available from the Regional Economic Measurement Division, Bureau
of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce on total earnings
and earnings per job, and on the ratio of personal income to earnings.
Also, projections of these data have been made by OBERS and the Bureau
of Economic Analysis for the nation, each State, and many local areas.
Consequently, historical data for an area can be compared with other
similar areas (or in some cases, as in metropolitan areas, these projections
will already exist) and projected approximations can be made of total
personal income for an area (i.e., personal income equals employment
times earnings per job, times the ratio of personal income to earnings),
assuming a continued similarity or relationship between earnings per
worker and the ratio of personal income to earnings.
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Likewise, BEA and OBERS provide historical data and projections
of earnings by industrial sector for a variety of areas. These industrial
sectors include the following nine major categories: agriculture, forestry
and fisheries; mining; contract construction; manufacturing; transportation,
communications and utilities; trade; finance, insurance and real estate;
services; and government. In addition, these nine major categories
are divided into a number of subcategories. Also, State employment
service agencies generally have historical employment data by major
industrial sector. Where appropriate, these might be used directly
as measures of sector activity (i.e., variations over time of employment
and/or earnings by industrial sector), or various procedures, similar
to those discussed for estimating and projecting earnings or personal
income in an area (e.g., applying ratios such as earnings or output per
job to time-series employment data for individual sectors) would be
applied.
The resources necessary to accomplish the baseline projections
will depend upon the availability and type of any existing projections
for a particular area, the availability of technical assistance from
the State or other local agencies to work with the WQM planning agency
to modify (as needed) any existing projections, or the availability
of other pertinent studies (government, university, or private) which
may be useful in preparing the needed projections. If no projections
exist for a particular area, and only historical data and statewide
projections are available from OBERS or a State planning agency, it
should still be possible for a single experienced economist with the
assistance of another person, to prepare the needed projections within
a period of one to two months. These might be prepared by planning agency
staff members, a local university, a State agency, consultants, or
the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the Department of Commerce. However,
some of these may require substantial lead time to develop the projections.
BEA, for example, may be overwhelmed with requests for this type of
assistance. General sources of data, other than those already noted,
would include various publications of the U.S. Bureau of the Census
(U.S. Department of Commerce). County Business Patterns provides mid-
March estimates of "covered" employment and related first quarter payroll
by industrial sector (i.e., for those "covered" by this reporting system)
for each county in the U.S. The Census of Population provides detailed
employment and income data for a variety of areas, but it is available
only in 10-year intervals. In addition, there are various industrial
censuses (agriculture, manufacturers, trade, services, etc.) which are
performed in about 5 to 10-year intervals, depending on the sector.
Data on births and deaths are available from Vital Statistics of the
United States, Volume I "Nativity" and Volume II "Mortality" (U.S.
Department of Health, Education and Welfare).
IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLANS
The baseline projections of at least total employment, population,
personal income, and industrial sector activity provide the foundation
needed to assess the economic impact of proposed alternative environmental
actions.
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The initial task would, in most cases, be to determine the expected
variation in employment in the area due to proposed alternative actions.
The direct employment impacts would first be assessed. (Where sector-
by-sector earnings projections exist for an area, the preferred approach
may be to begin with this data base rather than the employment projections.
Such earnings projections are available for many areas, as indicated
earlier, from OBERS and the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the U.S.
Department of Commerce).* This would require an understanding of the
numbers of firms or agencies (or other employing entities) that would
be directly affected by a particular WQM plan element, and the degree
(e.g., change in production employment, and/or payroll) to which each
firm would be impacted. This analysis may be performed on a plant-by-
plant basis, or for an entire industrial sector (e.g., mining) or a
segment of such a sector (e.g., coal mining, or textile manufacturing)
in each area. This analysis should result in an understanding of the
direct employment impacts of WQM plan elements on particular industrial
sectors in the area economy.
Frequently, it may be necessary to assess these proposed WQM
plan impacts on a plant-by-plant basis. This becomes particularly
obvious using the "industrial pretreatment requirement" example. In
this case it is especially important to estimate 1) the costs of compliance
for all firms requiring industrial pretreatment; 2) the likelihood
that these costs will be wholly or partly passed on to consumers (through
an increase in product price), or absorbed by the producing firm (this
would be based on analyses of the market structure of industrial segments
in which these firms participate, of the potential use of substitute
products, and of other economic factors); and 3) the impact of these
costs and possible price increases on the profitability and general
financial viability of these firms. One method of obtaining this in-
formation would be to go directly to the individual firms and ask for
this information. It is likely that these estimates may be understated
or overstated by individual firms. Another procedure would be to
ask each firm to list specifically how it intends to comply with the
proposed pretreatment requirement. This would include an itemized list
of expected equipment purchases or other plant actions and a related cost
estimate. The results could be checked with equipment suppliers and other
sources, and also checked by a competent professional. Most importantlyf
the results could also be checked and compared with the economic impact
studies published by EPA for each industry where effluent limitation
guidelines have been promulgated, and similar economic impact studies
funded by the National Commission on Water Quality (NCWQ). These studies
generally assess the expected impacts on industrial segments by size
of firm (e.g., small, medium and large). Consequently, the results
Regional Economic Plan for the Old West Regional Commission,
March, 1976. Prepared by Centaur Management Consultants, Inc.
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of the local area assessment of individual firms could usually be reviewed
and compared with results from the studies funded by EPA and NCWQ to
determine potential local economic impacts. Finally, one of the best
methods to assess local economic impact might be to have a very specialized
and knowledgeable consultant in industrial effluent standards compliance
talk with plant personnel (either by telephone or preferably during
a quick walking tour of each plant) and make estimates of the costs
of compliance and other economic impacts.
These expected changes in direct employment or other economic
activity will have both indirect (i.e., resulting from the changes in
purchases of products and services from other firms or agencies which
are used or consumed in production) and induced (i.e., resulting from
changes in the purchases of goods and services by those workers directly
and indirectly impacted who receive income from the affected firms
or agencies) employment impacts on the area economy. These multiplier
effects must be taken into account. Such effects may be assessed using
a variety of approaches including economic base type multipliers,
input-output analysis, or other ad hoc analyses which -attempt to derive
area multipliers for assessing the total impact of changes in direct
employment or earnings. Following are brief discussions of each of
these approaches. Neither the approaches or the discussion receive ex-
haustive treatment, nor is any endorsement of a particular approach in-
tended. Any of the approaches can be utilized as long as they provide
reasonable estimates of the expected multiplier effects. There are no
definitive statements comparing the accuracies of these models or comparing
the confidence levels of model outputs with the resources necessary to con-
struct and operate these models . The planning agency will have to rely on
professional judgement in selecting the appropriate technique.
Economic base multipliers derive from the theory that external
economic forces constitute the cause of local (or regional) changes,
and the internal portion of the local economy (i.e., local consumption
of local goods and services) is considered to have a predictable rela-
tionship to total economic activity. While economic base type multipliers
sometimes rely upon a crude estimating procedure, they offer an inexpensive
means for estimating indirect and induced impact's. Data for employment (or
income) multipliers for an area may generally be obtained from the area's
baseline data (see the foregoing section) on industrial sector activities
or from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census of Population, County
Business Patterns, or State Employment Security Offices.
In determining economic base multipliers, the usual procedure
is to separate the industrial sectors of the local economy as to whether
they provide products of export (e.g., these generally include manufactu-
ring, mining, agriculture, Federal Government) or of local service
(e.g., these generally include trade; finance, insurance and real estate/-
transportation, communication and utilities; local government; services;
and contract construction). There may also be some specialized services
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in an area that could be termed export. Examples include tourism,
power generation for export (i.e., export utilities), financial or
insurance centers serving a larger region or the nation, or similar
national or regional educational or health centers. The portion of
employment (or income) which is associated with the export activities
is said to be "basic", and the remaining portion (i.e., "non-basic")
is said to be generated by the basic or export activity. Where changes
in employment are expected to result from proposed WQM actions, if
such job gains or losses occur in an export or basic activity, the
economic base approach allows calculation (by using the historical
relationship developed between basic and non-basic employment) of the
concomitant gains or losses that can be expected in the non-basic or
local service sectors of an area. On the other hand, if such employment
changes (i.e., job losses) appear to occur in a non-basic (or local
service) sector, the economic base approach suggests that the impacted
economic activity (and related employment and income) was supporting
the area's export or basic segment. Therefore, little additional multiplier
impacts can be expected. Also, there is a high probability that the
activity would be reestablished elsewhere in the area or near the area,
creating little additional if any impact, in order to support the existing
economic (i.e., export) base.
An input-output (1-0) analysis is a means of relating interindustry
purchases in a single model, showing the consequences to all other indust-
rial sectors of a specified change in one. Such a model can be designed
for most any geographical area where satisfactory data can be collected.
Analyses performed with 1-0 models are of value in quantifying changes
in an area's industrialization pattern resulting from some specific
proposed change in industrial inputs and/or outputs. These occur as
a result of implementing a particular environmental action. The input-
output approach can be an excellent analytical to'ol because of the
thoroughness and detail involved in "the model. The approach offers
a relatively precise way of determining multiplier effects.
However, unless such a model (of relatively recent vintage)
already exists for a particular^ area, the input-out approach has severe
practical limitation. The mos-T crucial limitation for a planning agency
is the time and expense involved in collecting the enormous amount of data
for such a model. Such a model would also require updating (requiring another
large data collection effort) every few years since the coefficients are some-
times not predictable over time.
Ad hoc type models generally trace spending patterns, propensities
to consume, and related income generating effects. These models can
track the rounds of spending that occur in a local economy and determine
the total income and spending impacts related to a primary or direct
change in income (or expenditures). A theoretical weakness of the re-
sulting multipliers (i.e., total impacts associated with an increase or
decrease in personal income) is insufficient measurements of impacts on
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local consumption (i.e., induced effects). The requirement for thorough
data surveys of a local economy can, in this case, also be very time-
consuming and costly.
Applying, then, one of these types of approaches to the direct
employment impact determination, provides an estimate of the total (i.e.,
direct, indirect and induced) expected employment impacts associated
with a particular proposed alternative WQM plan action. When this is
added to the future employment estimate obtained from the earlier dis-
cussed baseline projection, a "new" total employment estimate (i.e.,
"with" the proposed action) results. Using the historical and projected
baseline relationships between employment and population for the area, it
should be possible to estimate the expected population change associated
with the variation in employment (i.e., population equals employment times
the ratio of population to employment, the latter determined from projected
historical trends) resulting from alternative actions. When added to the
baseline population projection, a "new" future population estimate results.
The assumption in this analysis, or procedure, is that employment oppor-
tunities drive population. That is, if employment opportunities are
generated in an area, this will result in less out-migration, since the
natural increase in population would be able to absorb some of these
opportunities, and/or increased in-migration would take advantage of these
opportunities. On the other hand, fewer job opportunities would result
in relatively more out-migration and less in-migration. The gross and net
effects depend upon the number of employment opportunities, the local
fertility rates and the labor market within and outside the area. Migra-
tion is a key factor in employment and population change, data on expected
family size of migrants (from U.S. Census or State agencies) will be
necessary t;o estimate expected population impacts. Other data needed to
characterize the labor force are age and sex compositions.*
There may, however, be contravening factors to the employment-
drives-population assumption (e.g., the area contains a large retirement
community unaffected by the employment base) which need to be considered.
Commuting patterns should also be taken into account. For example,
while the employment base within an area may change, many of the persons
holding such jobs may actually reside outside the area. Commuting patterns
are available from the 1970 U.S. Census, but estimates should also be
made of expected future commuting patterns. The availability, acces-
sibility, and attractiveness of land for residential purposes represent
For a further discussion, see Appendices F and H in the Regional Economic
Plan for the Old West Regional Commission and Appendix B and Chapter 4 in
Development Plan for the Four Corners Regional Commission, February, 1972,
U.S. Department of Commerce.
6-15
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factors to be considered when relating population to employment changes.
Similarly, any alternative WQM action may cause the relocation of current
or expected economic activities to localities outside of but near to
the existing area. However, the population associated with this employ-
ment may reside in the WQM area. Finally, the population to employment
relationships used in this analysis may need to take into account any
unique characteristics of migrants. Changes in the employment base,
as indicated above, are likely to generate population changes which
result in net in- or out-migration. The family size and other charac-
teristics of migrants may be substantially different from the general
population of the area. Data on the historic characteristics of migrants
are available from various U.S. Census publications.*
From expected changes in the employment and population levels
and characteristics of an area, estimates (see below) can be made of
related earnings and personal income changes. The Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BEA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce has historic data
available on the relationship between employment, earnings, and personal
income for each county in the nation. Similar historical and projected
(to the year 2020) data, as indicated earlier, are available from OBERS
for a variety of areas. Many planning areas may conform closely to
some of these OBERS areas, but just as important is the mix and type
of industrial activity. It should be possible from historical and
projected data to make approximate matches (e.g., on the basis of em-
ployment and/or earnings distribution among industrial sectors) between
planning areas and nearby or other economically similar areas contained
in the OBERS data base. Expected ratios of future earnings to employment
and personal income to earnings could then be determined from the OBERS
data base for these economically similar areas and applied to the estimated
employment impacts associated with alternative water quality management
actions. The analysis would also need to take into account any variations
that might result from estimating earnings and income by place of work
versus by place of residence. The matter is dependent on commuting
patterns, and is of primary concern to an area. Also, if particular
sectors in a local economy have very high or low earnings to employment
ratios, and these appear to be heavily impacted by the proposed water
quality management actions, then additional analysis and data corrections
may be desirable. Also, projected changes in population and personal
income (in constant dollars) could be combined in order to calculate
the impact on per capita personal income.
*
The foregoing projections can be used as the basis for generating
estimates of the impact of proposed alternative actions on economic
activity (i.e., production or output) by industrial sector, on retail
For example, see U.S. Bureau of the Census, Mobility for the States and
the Nation, 1970, Subject Report P6(2)-2B.
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sales, on public revenues and costs and on other factors that may be of
interest to the area. For example, from an understanding of those in-
dustrial sectors directly impacted (e.g., by a change in employment) by
a particular WQM policy, comparisons can be made with the baseline pro-
jections for these "basic" or "export" sectors to indicate expected employ-
ment variations due to implementation of a particular policy. Relative change
in production could be derived from expected change in employment. The
multiplier (i.e., indirect and induced) effects could be used to estimate
the effects on "non-basic" or service sectors. Again, relative change
in service sectors' activity (i.e., output) could be derived from the
estimated changes in employment as determined by the multiplier analysis.
Variations in retail sales could be determined from historical and projected
data on the relationships between personal income and retail sales for an
area (i.e., retail sales equal personal income times the trended historical
ratio of retail sales to personal income).
Historical annual retail sales data can be obtained from Sales
Management, Inc., Survey of Buying Power. Historical and projected
personal income data are available from OBERS, and BEA, or it can be
derived from total employment or expected changes in employment. Ratios
of retail sales to personal income can be derived from historical data
and applied to future projections of personal income and expected vari-
ations in this income due to proposed water quality management actions.
Expected variations in the sizes of retail sales, population,
economic activity by industrial sector, personal income and other factors
could be used to estimate expected changes in local area public revenues
and public costs. For example, local public revenues are frequently
generated by sales, income, or property taxes. Knowledge of expected
impacts on population, industrial sector activity, personal income
and retail sales will provide the basis for estimating impacts on these
revenues. External revenue sources (e.g., State and Federal) are not
likely to be impacted by local policies, except for the availability
of particular types of State and Federal funds for certain types
of water quality management programs (e.g., treatment plants, sewers,
and so on). Similarly, in estimating local area public costs, that
is, the need for public facilities and operation/maintenance expansions,
population size would be the most critical factor. This would be a
primary determinant of service and new facility needs, and from which
operating/maintenance expenses could be determined. In addition, par-
ticular water quality management policies may have capital cost and/or
operating/maintenance cost implications which also need to be taken
into account in estimating public cost impacts.
Again, the resources necessary to perform the economic impact
analysis will depend upon the number and complexity of each plan alternative
(singly or in combination) evaluated, the need for local data collection,
and the availability of State or local technical assistance. However,
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to competently analyze alternatives it might be expected that this
would require 2 to 4 professional economists (staff members, university
members, or consultants) from 1 to 6 months to complete this task.
It should be emphasized, though, that this merely represents a general
estimate, and in some instances water quality management alternatives
and area economic activity may be such that resource requirements may
be greater or lesser.
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ADDITIONAL REFERENCES
Isard, Walter. Methods of Regional Analysis.:_a^_ Ir^rod^ct_ionjbo_
Regional Science. Boston: The Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, 1960
Isard, W. , and Czamanski, S. "Techniques for Estimating Local and
Regional Multiplier Effects of Changes in the Level of
Major Governmental Programs," Peace_ Research Society Papers,
Volume III, 1965.
Lane, Theodore. "The Urban Base Multiplier: An Evaluation of the
Art," Land Economics, August, 1966.
Miernyk, William H. The Elements of Input-Output Analysis. New York:
Random House, 1965.
Miernyk, William H., et_ al. Simulating Regional^Egonpmic Development.
Lexington, Massachusetts: D.C. Health and Company, 1970.
Moody, Harold T., and Puffer, Prank W. "The Empirical Verification of
the Urban Base Multiplier: Traditional and Adjustment Process
Models," Land Economics, February, 1970.
Sasaki, K. The Review of Economics and Statistics, August, 1963.
The U.S. Water Resources Council, 1972__QB_ERS__P£oj^£tionsj__E_cp_npjni£
Activity in the U.S. (Based on the Series E Projected National
Population), Vol. I-VII, Washington, D.C., April 1974.
CONSAD Research Corporation, Evaluation of the Cost-jSfjge^ctiveness of
Nonstructural Pollution Controls;_ A Manual for Water Quality
Management Planning, April 30, 1976. EPA Contract No. 68-01-2699.
M.J. Wistisen, G.T. Nelson, Kaiparowits Socio-Economic Study, prepared
by the Center for Business and Economic Research, Brigham Young
University, for Bechtel Power Corporation, Provo, Utah, 1973.
State Employment Security Administration statistics,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census: U.S. Census of Popu-
lation: Population Estimates and Projections; County Business^
Patterns: County and City Data Book; Current Population Reports,
Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates;
United States Census of Population: Subject Reports, Mobjllity
for States and the Nation.
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U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis statistics.
U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Vital Statistics of
the United States: Mortality; Vital Statistics of the United.
States: Natality; Vital Statistics of the U.S.
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VISUAL QUALITY IMPACT ASSESSMENT
Elements of a water quality management plan may produce outputs
which alter the appearance of the community. Of the possible alternative
plan elements, some, such as stream channelization or sewage plant construction,
may change the physical appearance of the community and therefore the visual
quality. Additionally, the results of various plan elements, such as cleaner
water (e.g., bluer, clearer) will impact the visual quality as well. Since
alternative elements of the WQM plan are designed to address water pollution
problems, it is expected that some of the visual impacts will occur as changes
in the appearance, form, or composition of water bodies, shorelines or adjacent
land areas. Additional impacts can occur however, as a result of land use
or development controls which may result from the implementation of WOM plan
elements. These controls, for instance, may alter locations of industry,
patterns of residential development or use of particular building materials.
Visual appearance includes such identifiable features and community
characteristics as natural land forms (water bodies, shorelines), open spaces,
patterns of development (grid pattern, cul de sacs), landmarks (historical,
natural) and activity centers; essentially, all that is visually perceived
by the inhabitants and visitors. These factors contribute to the overall
character of a community. This character indicates whether it is old or new,
urban or rural. It describes where neighborhoods begin and end and what the
important places are. Similarly, the visual environment makes it easier
or more difficult to get around and to find local resources.
Persons who live, work or travel through an area use the visual
appearance to judge the suitability of a place for living, working or visiting.
To assess the impacts that alternative elements of the WQM plan will have
on the visual appearance of the community, the WQM planner can determine
how community character, as perceived by residents, workers and travelers,
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will be altered. The planner can make this assessment and present it to
the community by projecting the visual appearance with and without the proposed
plan alternatives. The community can then assess if the WQM plan alternatives
are impacting the visual appearance of the area in a way that coincides
with major interests and priorities. In making this assessment, it is important
to note that communities are not homogeneous in their values/ and choices
will have to be made.
There are several key questions to be asked in performing a visual
quality impact assessment.
Key Questions
What are the visual characteristics of the area which
are most important to the community?
How will the WQM plan outputs alter these visual charac-
teristics?
Are the visual alterations consistent with community
objectives?
Will the WQM plan add new visual elements that are not
valued positively?
Concern for the environment has traditionally emphasized natural
resource conservation. Impact assessments of water, air, land and biological
systems are well defined areas of traditional environmental concern and
are dealt with in other sections of this report. Unlike air and water quality
impacts, visual impacts have no national standards or controls. However,
the need for assessment of impacts on man's visual surroundings has resulted
in a variety of methodologies which attempt to standardize the approach to
visual quality impact assessment.
The approach used by many landscape architects, urban designers
and others to assess visual impacts includes describing a setting by categori-
zing it into visual components (e.g., landmarks, views, structures). In the
case of assessing the alternative elements of a WQM plan, the planner can
identify these visual components with pictures or sketches representing a
baseline condition and then project the changes which may occur as a result
of the plan alternatives. These changes to the visual appearance will result
from physical changes suggested in the plan alternatives (e.g., river chan-
The Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture has conducted extensive
work in the area of visual and aesthetic impact assessment. They are currently
preparing a series of practical handbooks on conducting land interpreting such
assessments. Several volumes of the National Forest Landscape Management
series are now available through the Forest Service.
7-2
-------
nelization, construction of sewage treatment plant) or from alterations in
land use patterns and biological conditions caused by the projected imple-
mentation of elements of the plan. Once a baseline is developed, many metho-
dologies in the field apply a set of criteria to these visual components
to determine how they impact the community or region. These criteria serve
as standards which enable the planner to measure the plan alternatives.
For instance, a common standard of judgment is the uniqueness of a visual
component. The plan alternatives may then be rated by the unique features
that they maintain. However, such judgments are difficult to make and many
of the criteria may be such that they can only be applied by highly trained
design specialists.
No attempt has been made in presenting guidance on visual impact
assessment as to whether the "leave it to the professionals" approach or
a "ask the community what they think is important" type of approach is pre-
ferred. Selection of an approach, especially in developing assessment criteria,
will have to be left to the judgment of the WQM planning agency and its
advisory bodies.
VISUAL QUALITY ASSESSMENT PARAMETERS
Since the visual appearance relates to the quality of life of indivi-
duals and the desirability and attractiveness of communities, the parameters
or criteria with which to assess impacts are perceived and prioritized different-
ly by different groups of individuals. For instance, some groups may feel
that extensive green space is the most important visual factor in an area.
Other groups stress the importance of landmarks, developed play space or con-
sistent building styles. The WQM planner will have the difficult task of using
professional judgment to incorporate these different priorities into a set of
criteria representative of community goals. It is the role of the planner to
determine criteria which represent the overall community objectives, not just
those of the most vocal groups in the area.
An obvious measure of community concerns about visual quality which
can be reviewed by the WQM planners, is the visual controls in use in a
community. These controls may be similar to zoning ordinances or possibly
a part of them. Examples of such controls are building height limitation
ordinances, specification of allowable building materials, setbacks, and
sign regulations. Somewhat less common, but possibly more indicative of
a community's concern over visual form, are the special visual controls which
have been developed in many areas. Examples of these are visual easement
programs, historic districts and landmark zones. A review of these controls
points out to the WQM planner the geographical and substantive visual quality
issues in which citizens have expressed special interest. These issues often
7-3
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hold particular interest and meaning to the community (e.g., historical dis-
tricts, landmarks, architect reviews). Awareness of the existence of these
controls will help guide the WQM*planner in developing assessment criteria.
For example, new sewer service which will result in further development into
an area prized for its landmarks will have to be carefully planned to protect
the visual quality of the area. Additional review can be made of local news-
papers to determine geographic areas where citizen groups have been involved
in preservation or improvement activities.
A direct means of determining community concerns about visual quality
is to ask "the community" for its opinions. The planner can hold public
meetings where citizens can express what visual components in an area are
important to them and how they are important. For instance, citizens may
express particular concern over enjoying open space at a waterfront, of
retaining the "blueness" of a water body, or of maintaining an open view
of a waterway from specific parts of the city. The planner can use this
information to develop the criteria by which WQM impacts are judged. Another
method of determining similar information is a citizen survey. However,
the development, distribution and tabulation of questionnaires is time consuming
and rather costly. Additionally, this method does not provide the opportunity
for interaction which occurs at community meetings. Surveys also do not
enable the WQM planner to contribute professional advice. However, surveys
can be designed to reach a very large number of citizens and make them a
part of the planning process. To overcome some of the disadvantages of
a survey the planner can contact representative organizations in the community
who can in turn call their members. Examples of these would be garden clubs,
historical societies, and neighborhood associations.
The reason for determining community concerns and priorities regarding
visual quality is so that they can be developed into a set of criteria which
can be applied to the plan alternatives. The criteria should reflect the
community concerns and the professional judgment of the WQM planner, landscape
architects, or urban designer. Once it is established that the community
is concerned with maintaining the waterfront as open space, for instance,
the planner might point out that open space can be active, such as in developed
park land, or passive as in undeveloped areas. For instance, the waterfront
may be developed with uses that have large open spaces, e.g., an extensive
buffer area can be maintained around a sewage treatment plant which leaves
the immediate waterfront visually open. The way the criterion is written
should specify the particular intent of the community so that alternative
plan elements can be compared on a similar basis of community concern. Ad-
ditionally, the clearer the criteria that are developed, the clearer the
impact will be defined.
VISUAL ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES
The following Table, 7-1, illustrates four visual assessment metho-
dologies. The methodologies were selected as illustrative of the type of
aesthetic studies which are being made in conjunction with general environmental
assessments. These methodologies are described in terms of baseline charac-
teristics enumerated, assessment methods used, the types of resources needed
to perform such assessments, and how they relate to water quality management
7-4
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planning. They are intended as suggestions for baseline and assessment
categories and to spark further thought on areas of aesthetic interest
and concern. Some of the methodologies might be applied in whole, in part
or in combination, but all should include community input particularly in
the assessment criteria used.
The methodologies are tools to identify visual features, forecast
change caused by alternative elements of the WQM 'plan and assess the change
in terms of selected criteria. These criteria, if not directly developed
by the community, should be understood and approved by it, keeping in mind
the diversity of views encompassed by the "community." Alterations in visual
appearance profoundly affect citizens and usually evoke vocal reactions.
A powerful source of support for the water quality management plan can evolve
from a community's acceptance and approval of the visual changes that this
plan will bring to its environs.
DEVELOPING A BASELINE
Baseline development will generally result from an inventory of
the WQM planning area. Visual features can be classified according to a
number of analytical methods discussed in Table 7-1. These methods each cate-
gorize natural and man made features which compose the visual environment.
These features are discussed separately, as well as together, as parts of
intergrated landscapes, e.g., mountains, flatlands, center city, or views
from specific locations. All the methods described in the current studies
depend on some field reconnaissance for the planner to identify the charac-
teristics relevant to the community. Additional sources for determining
important visual features are national, State and local park publications,
topographic maps, aerial photographs, and travel guidebooks. The planner
can use any or all of the factors discussed in these methods or may select
factors which meet the depth and detail determined to be appropriate for
the assessment study.
Once the baseline is established, it must be projected over the
twenty year period, similar to the horizon of the WQM plan, with the help
of land use projections. Since areas of projected land use change may alter
visual components, the projected baseline can be determined by comparing
the present visual appearance with projected area land use change and develop-
ment. The changes which will result due to alternative elements of the WQM
plan must then be compared with the baseline. This assumes that alternative
elements of the WQM plan are known in sufficient detail (e.g., retouched
photos, sketches, etc.) to present their visual impact on the baseline appear-
ance. The WQM planner can array the projected visual components in several
ways. The format can be in matrix form, landscape sketches, shaded or annotated
maps, photographs or models. The approaches to visual assessment suggest
7-5
-------
specific means to array the baseline of the community's visual appearance.
These means are directly related to the method for applying criteria. How
the criteria are applied will depend on the methodology selected. Additionally,
the level of community concern may influence how the baseline is presented.
Controversial visual quality issues may require more graphic representations.
The use of basic graphics (maps or charts) often help citizens to visualize
the baseline projections and impact areas.
IMPACT ON VISUAL QUALITY
Impacts on the community's visual appearance will be assessed by
applying the set of criteria to the projected changes in the baseline caused
by the WQM plan alternatives. Since each alternative element of the WQM
plan will generate a new projected baseline, the same set of criteria should
be applied to each projection so comparisons can be developed. The assessment
methodologies in Table 7-1 provide rating systems to compare visual components.
Any criteria that are developed by a community can be applied to the baseline
and simply rated. For instance, if uniqueness is a criterion, a channeled,
concrete shoreline can be rated -1 (or negative), an average mixed use shoreline
rated 0 (or neutral), and a wilderness shoreline rated +1 (or positive).
Even a simple rating system provides a means to clearly illustrate where
visual components will be impacted and what the tradeoffs are between plan
element alternatives. However, it should be pointed out that numerical rating
systems can have the effect of suppressing information. The WQM planner
may want to consider why a visual change is positive, neutral or negative
as well as the rating for these values.
7-6
-------
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OTHER SOCIAL IMPACTS
The foregoing chapters have discussed the assessments of major
direct and indirect impacts that are to be considered in the planning
for alternative elements of a WQM plan. In addition, there are other
social impacts that may result from a WQM plan. Generally, such impacts
are not expected to be so significant as to warrant a detailed assessment.
Nevertheless, they should be taken into consideration as part of a
complete environmental assessment process. Because the identification
and significance of social impacts depends upon local circumstances,
it will be the responsibility of the WQM "experts", with the advice
of EPA Regional Offices, to determine the significance of various
impacts and therefore their required emphasis in the assessment process.
Clearly such a determination will require substantial familiarity
with local concerns, and must build upon previous public participation
efforts.
The social impacts discussed briefly in this chapter are trans-
portation, housing, solid waste collection and disposal, water supply,
education, recreation, health care, and safety (police and fire) .
These social impacts may be either direct or indirect.
Social impacts may be a direct outcome from alternative
elements of the WQM plan or from the process of
preparing and implementing the plan. Public
involvement in water quality issues is a good
example of creating a constituency for continuing
water quality which may continue well after the
plan itself is complete. Increasing water based
recreation opportunities is another such example
of a specific and intentional "social" goal inte-
grated into a WQM plan.
Social impacts may be an indirect outcome of land
use or economic change. For example, changes in
employment levels may be viewed in monetary terms
as an economic impact (discussed in a previous
chapter) or as a social impact if altered life
styles are considered.
8-1
-------
These types of social impact are not intended
to be either all inclusive, or totally independent
of each other since a social impact may fall into
both categories. The purpose of the breakdown is
to assist the planning staff in determining what
may be considered relevant to a social impact
assessment.
It becomes very difficult to always differentiate between social
and physical impacts. In addition, any action may have both positive
and negative social impacts. Land use changes will alter housing
patterns and thereby influence transportation (and air quality).
Protection of critical areas (e. g., flood plains) will positively
affect public safety and water quality, but may increase housing
costs by removing developable land from the market.
Social impact assessment therefore requires a special sensitivity
on the part of the WQM planner. First, the planner must be able
to identify groups (e. g. , tourists, children, the poor) within
the community, who for some reason, have special needs which should
be considered throughout the assessments. Second, the planner,
while performing the physical environmental (e. g., air and water
quality) assessments, must be cognizant of how these environmental
areas will affect the community's non-environmental goals and objectives.
Finally, where there are particular impact areas (e. g., recreation,
housing) , the WQM planner must be prepared to assess them in some
detail and determine how WQM plan implementation will affect them.
The nature of social impacts makes it difficult to say that
any given impact is universally positive or universally negative.
The value associated with a social impact comes from the priorities
set for different local objectives. For example, a change in the
demographic composition of an area may in one instance be viewed
as a social benefit and in another as a social cost. Within a single
area, different sub-groups of the affected population may take different
positions on the value of any social impact. Some groups may bear
a "disproportionate share of the costs associated with a proposed
plan alternative while others may receive considerable benefits.
The planner should solicit public participation to obtain an indication
of the perception of different groups of the distribution of costs
and benefits of the WQM plan.
Many of the social impacts which may result from implementation
of alternative plan elements are not easily measured in standard
units. It is difficult to assign a number to the improved quality
of a neighborhood. Even if a number could be determined (for example,
using the number of people that perceive their neighborhood as a
good place to live), a standard value for that number which would
allow a comparison with a similar number derived from a change in
employment patterns would be difficult to determine and subject to
much dispute.
3-2
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The way to approach social impact assessment is no different
from that presented in the previous chapters. The process starts
with the establishment of key questions to be investigated in the
assessment based on community goals or concerns. Next certain parameters
are identified which can be used to measure and present the social
impacts (e. g., number and price of housing units, vehicle miles tra-
velled, waiting times at parks). Assessment methods in these areas
are usually not as amenable to quantitative techniques (e.g., atmos-
pheric modeling). In part, this is because although a service may
continue to function (e. g., transportation system), its quality (e.g.,
congestion) may decline. Therefore, expert professional judgement
and strong public involvement will be required to establish a credible
method. Baselines are established "with" and "without" the alternative
elements of the WQM plan. Finally, impacts are assessed in terms of
their implications for concerns of high social importance to the community.
As discussed at the outset of this chapter, the occurrence
of significant social impacts by implementation of alternative elements
of the WQM plan is generally not considered likely. Therefore,
only a list of key questions is provided to guide the WQM staff
in beginning an assessment of social impacts in their local areas.
These key questions are:
HOUSING AND SOCIAL CONDITIONS
1. What will be the change in number and percent of
housing units that are substandard, and the
number and percent of people living in such units?
2. What change will take place in the number and percent
of housing units by type (price or rent range, zoning
category, owner-occupied and rental, etc.) relative
to demand or to number of families in various income
classes in the community?
3. What number of residents or workers will be displaced
by development - and are they satisfied with having
to move?
4. What changes will take place in population distribution
by age, income, religion, social or ethnic group,
occupational class, and household type?
5. What change will occur in the number or percent of
people perceiving their neighborhoods as too crowded?
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What changes will occur in the number or percent
of people perceiving their community as a good
place to live?
TRANSPORTATION
RECREATION
1. How will vehicular travel times change between
selected origins and destinations?
2. Will there be a change in the duration or severity
of traffic congestion?
3. What change is likely in finding a satisfactory
parking space within a specified distance from home
or work place?
4. What change will take place in the numbers and percent
of residents with access to public transit within a
specified distance of their homes; and the number
and percent of employees who can get within a
specified distance of work location by public transit?
5. Will there be a change in the rate of traffic accidents?
6. Will there be a change in the number of stores and
services, by type, available within a specified
distance of people's homes or work place?
7. What changes will occur in the percent of people
generally satisfied with local shopping conditions
in terms of access, variety and crowdedness?
8. What overall changes will occur in the number of
car trips or car miles traveled per person?
9. What changes will take place in the automobile
ownership rate for the population? What provisions
will exist for non-drivers (e. g., the young, elderly,
poor, handicapped)?
What changes are expected in the current range of
recreational opportunities (public and private)
available to community residents?
What changes will occur in the levels of services
(e. g., congestion, waiting time, cost, etc.)?
Will there be changes in access in terms of
membership, cost, time of year?
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EDUCATION
4. What changes will occur in the perceived pleasantness
of the recreational experience?
5. What changes are expected in the usage of recreational
possibilities as a percent of capacity (e. g., number
of people turned away, space per resident, perceptions
of crowdedness)?
1. What changes will occur in the number of students
within a specified commute from schools, by schools?
2. What expected number of students will have to switch
schools or changing their busing/walking status?
3. What changes will occur in school crowdedness
indicated by added shifts, student-teacher ratios,
or perceived pleasantness of schools?
4. What changes will occur in special education needs?
HEALTH CARE
SAFETY
1. Will there be any change in the cost and ability
to pay for health care services?
2. Will development changes cause a change in demand
for special health care services (e. g., older
people, mothers, etc.)?
3. Will there be any changes in illness or death rates?
4. Will there be any changes in occupationally related
accidents?
5. Will there be any changes in the number or percentage
of people who are beyond some specified minutes of
travel time from a hospital emergency facility?
1. What changes will occur in the rates of crimes in
existing or new community development?
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2. What changes will occur in people's perception of
their security?
3. What changes will occur in fire incidence rates?
4. What changes will occur in the ratios of fire spread
and rescue hazards?
5. What changes will occur in the capacity of municipal
safety services (e. g., police, courts, fire)?
Specific guidance in any of these areas of social impact can be
found in the following list of references.
ADDITIONAL REFERENCES
"An Approach to Evaluating Environmental, Social, and Economic
Factors in Water Resources Planning", Water Resources Bulletin,
A. Bruce Bishop, August 1972.
Cost Benefit Analysis and Water Pollution Policy, H. M. Peskin
and E. P. Seskin, (Washington, D. C.: The Urban Institute), 1975.
The Costs of Sprawl, Real Estate Research Corporation for CEQ,
HUD, and EPA, April 1974.
A Guide to the Preparation of the Social Well-Being Account:
Social Assessment Manual, Abt Associates for the Bureau of
Reclamation, Department of the Interior, July 1975.
Lake Washington - Lake Union Social Impact Study, Human Resources
Planning Institute for National Commission on Water Quality,
(draft copy), June 1975.
The Social Impacts of Having Clean Water, Abt Associates for
National Commission on Water Quality, June 1975. (draft copy).
Water and Related Land Resources Establishment of Principles and
Standards for Planning, Water Resource Council, reported in
Federal Register, Vol. 38, No. 174, Part III, Monday, September
10, 1973.
Measuring Impacts of Land Development, An Initial Approach,
Philip S. Schoenman and Thomas Muller, The Urban Institute, 1974.
Interim Guide for Environmental Assessment, HUD Field Office
Edition, prepared for HUD by Alan M. Vorhees and Associates, Inc.,
June 1975.
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