-------
these two chemicals far exceed other chemicals in volume applied
in Region V. Following next are metolachlor and cyanazine, each
between 10 and 20 million pounds/year applied in the Region." The
chemicals "weighing in" next are trifluralin, basagran and
terbufos, with between 1 and 8 million pounds/year applied.
Chloramben appears to be a major volume chemical, with over 2
million pounds applied in the Region, but will apparently not be
reregist-tJit!o, cuiu untticiuj.*; t_njc^> iiot. 0.^^00.1." 111 L^ic c^r^lycic.
Perhaps the most widely used chemical in Region V is 2,4-D, which
is used in agriculture, turf treatment, industrial vegetation
control, and by homeowners, although, by volume, 2,4-D does not
equal the major agricultural herbicides.
/
Table 3 also lists several pesticides used in the lawn care,
turf, and golf course industries. The General Accounting Office,
using a 1988 U.S. EPA estimate of use of pesticides on lawns by
lawn care operators and homeowners, found that 67,000,000 pounds
of active ingredients are applied each year, across the U.S.
Although pest problems are not distributed evenly across the
U.S. , an approximation of the amount applied in Region V was made
using the proportion of the U.S. population found in Region V
(46,428,000/243,300,000), which is 19%. Using this
approximation, over 12 million pounds of active ingredients are
used annually on Region V lawns. Further discussion of this
topic will appear in the section on lawn care and turf uses of
pesticides. Finally, Table 3 also lists carbofuran and paraquat
dichloride which present unique ecological and toxicity effects,
respectively, although their usage in the Region is much less
than other pesticides.
TOXICITY ASSESSMENT
Each pesticide was examined for evidence of human toxicity,
cancer and non-cancer, and for ecological effects. For cancer
risk, both risks from food residues and to applicators were
evaluated according to the 1987 "Unfinished Business" Report.
For non-cancer risk from pesticide residues in food, data did not
permit a separate analysis. Where no carcinogen category has
been assigned, the Reference Dose for non-cancer health effects
was used to analyze risk for applicators, along with available
exposure assessments from U.S. EPA documents, such as Special
Review Position Documents, and Registration Standards (now called
Reregistration Documents).
Following is a partial list of pesticides used in Region V, with
toxicity factors. With over 600 active ingredients registered by
the U.S. EPA, it was not possible to analyze all for Region V.
Pesticides analyzed were those for which appropriate information
was available. The suspended and canceled pesticides found in
Great Lakes sediments and in Great Lakes fish will be discussed
briefly under the section on Agricultural Impacts on the Great
Lakes Basin.
190
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Partial List of Pesticides Used in Region V/Toxicity Factors
Chemical
active
inqred.
Reference Dose*
(mg/kg/day)
Oncogen Class.**
Ql*
atrazine
aiacmor
metolachlor
cyanazine
trifluralin
basagran
terbufos
chlorpyrifos
carbofuran
paraquat
butylate
triallate
2,4-D
propachlor
aldicarb
triclopyr
pendimethalin
MCPP
dicamba
isofenphos
0.005 Cq
u . u ± I;Z
0.15 C
0.002
0.003 Cq
0.0025
0.00013
0.003
0.005
0.0045 E
0.05
0.013
0.01 D
0.013
0.006
0.025(not verified)
0.04
0.001
0.03
not available from IRIS
2.2 X 10E(-1)
r\ r\ TT i r\ T~« / o \
pending
neg./l species
7.7 X 10E(-3)
insufficient
neg./2 species
neg./l species
neg./2 species
inconclusive
pending
undetermined
negative
not available
undetermined
undetermined
neg./l species
not available
Canceled and Suspended Pesticides Found in Region V in the
Great Lakes and in Tissues of Great Lakes Fish
chlordane
heptachlor
aldrin
dieldrin
mirex
0.00006
0.00001
0.00003
0.00005
0.000002
B2
B2
C
B2
*
**
3 X 10E(-6)
1 X 10E(-6)
2 X 10E(-8)
1 X 10E(-7)
p e n d i n/g ; p o s
species
/I
Integrated Risk Information System
List of Chemicals Evaluated for Carcinogenic Potential,
U.S. EPA Memorandum, Office of Pesticide Programs, Health
Effects Division, March 9, 1990.
191
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EXPOSURE ESTIMATES
Exposure to pesticides can occur through various routes,
including residues in food, during application-related tasks, and
after use of the pesticide, through drift, runoff, and other
modes of transport. In order to evaluate the risk from each
route of exposure, the first step is to calculate the population
exposeu.
Since 19% of the U.S. population is found in Region V, this is
the population assumed to be exposed to pesticide residues in
food. The level of exposure is minimal because most residues are
negligible in foods as consumed, after preparation (washing,
peeling, and cooking).
There are several populations exposed during mixing and loading
pesticides, when the pesticide is applied to the field using farm
equipment or aerial application methods, and later, when workers
enter the field to perform hand labor tasks. Applicator
populations will include certified applicators, which fall into
two categories: private applicators, which are primarily farmers,
and commercial applicators, which are categorized into pest
control groupings, such as agricultural, ornamental and turf,
structural, forest, and rights-of-way. Applicator numbers appear
in Table 4.
For more general exposure to widely used chemicals, such as
homeowner use of lawn chemicals, the population considered will
be the U.S. population in Region V (46,428,000), as an estimate
of the number of people exposed.
HUMAN HEALTH RISK CHARACTERIZATION
To analyze human health risk from consumption of pesticide
residues in food and from pesticide use in Region V, the highest
volume pesticides were examined for evidence of cancer and non-
cancer effects in animal testing, as described above./
Pesticide Residues in Food: Cancer Risk
The "Unfinished Business" Report (1987) looked at 7 oncogenic
pesticides and calculated the number of cancer cases in the U.S.
population making several assumptions. For the purposes of the
Region V analysis, a proportion of the calculated number of
cancers was made using the population in Region V compared to the
U.S. population. Region V houses approximately 19 percent of the
U.S. population. The Office of Pesticide Programs (OPP)
estimated that the total annual population risk from dietary
exposure to oncogenic pesticides was 6000 people/year. For
Region V there would be an estimated 1140 people/year. The
derivation of this value is outlined below.
192
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TABLE 4
SELECTED EXPOSURE POPUIATICNS/REGICN V
~--~* - f' - -= -*~~1 -: ^^.»-^v-o TTV1QQ
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Ohio
Wisconsin
Total
T>H^73't-P
40,918
22,529
11,649
35,606
18,665
25,193
154,560
Corroercia.1
8,068
8,551
4,942
7,236
7,654
8,518
44,969
CERTIFIED APPLICATORS IN REGION V
TOTALS FOR SELECTED CATEGORIES
Total Commercial Applicators
Ag/Plant
Forest
Ornamental & Turf
Aquatic
Right of Way
Industrial/Structural, Health
Other /Including Wood Pres.
Total Private Applicators
44,969
13,384
3,129
17,222
1,775
7,087
15 ,062
3,081
154,560
193
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OPP looked at 7 oncogenic pesticides and estimated the risk from
dietary exposure to these chemicals would be 100,000 people per
lifetime for each chemical. Calculations using tolerances, which
are the legal amount of a pesticide which can remain on or in a
food commodity, are a "worst case" estimate of how much residue
can be found in food. More realistic estimates are much lower
and the Dietary Risk Evaluation System (formerly the Tolerance
Assessment System) permits analysis using average exposure
numbers, which are as much as 50 fold lower than calculations
using LuxeiAiiv-c vo.i^o. Tcr thic rcaccn. no° rH^-Mori tn<=
lifetime estimate by 50 to derive a more realistic estimate of
2000 people per lifetime for each chemical. For a yearly
estimate, dividing by 70 years per lifetime, the value is 30
people per year per chemical. An estimate of the number of
pesti'cides which may be oncogenic, as determined by animal
testing and other data, was 200 of the 600 active ingredients,
based on the number of pesticides which have been reevaluated for
carcinogenic potential to date. The annual population risk from
dietary exposure to pesticides in food was therefore determined
to be 6000 people/year (30X200). For Region V, this number was
scaled down based on the U.S. population (1988 Census of the
U.S.) found in Region V (46,428,000/243,300,000 = 0.19). The
annual population risk from dietary exposure to pesticides in
Region V is therefore 1140 people/year, as determined by the
Comparative Risk Project Ranking Methodology (Revised 7/11/90,
p.l). (Interim Score: 1140 X 0.67= 764).
Pesticide Residues in Food: Non-Cancer Risk
Available data did not permit separate analysis of the non-cancer
risk from residues in food. The assessment in "Unfinished
Business" and that provided by OPPE on 7/26/90, analyzed dietary
risk using only pesticides with oncogenic risk numbers.
Risks to Pesticide Applicators: Cancer Risk
As stated above, the "Unfinished Business" Report used
extrapolation from long term animal studies to estimate human
risk on a nationwide basis. Since oncogenicity studies are based
on lifetime daily oral exposure, several adjustments were made,
as follows:
1. Yearly exposure is used for risk calculation and
average daily exposure is calculated by dividing yearly
exposure by 365.
2. Workers are exposed for 40 years of a lifetime of 70
years.
3. Dermal and inhalation absorption versus oral
absorption, if known, was factored in.
OPP estimated the average lifetime population risk to be 35
persons/lifetime/chemical. The yearly risk/chemical would then
be 0.5 person/year/chemical (35/70 years in a lifetime). Since
194
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about 200 pesticides were estimated to be oncogens, the yearly
risk was estimated to be 0.5 X 200 or 100 persons/year.
Based on 100 persons/year for the nation, an estimated number for
Region V applicator risk was calculated as follows, using the
total number of certified applicators in the region. There are
200,000 Region V certified applicators and 1,249,016 total
c er r. 111 eci jL & -L.U. Lnc nc.ti.icn, tnci"c^cr~c
(200,000/1,249,016) X 100= 16 persons/year. (Interim score 16 x
0.67 = 11)
Risks to Pesticide Applicators: Non-cancer risk
Early Analysis; During the preliminary evaluation, for
pesticides without quantitative cancer risk assessments, the
reference dose was used to calculate risk to applicators (see
page 5). As described in the problem statement, available EPA
documents, which included Special Review Position Documents, and
Reregistration Documents (formerly called Registration Standards)
were used to obtain .exposure assessments for chemicals used in
the Region. Exposure populations were estimated from numbers of
certified applicators in categories known to use particular
pesticides and other available information. Using methods
prescribed by the Comparative Risk Technical Steering Committee
for Region V, Final Risk evaluations were made. The majority of
pesticides analyzed were in the medium to low category, as
follows:
Chemical Final Risk Score
Terbufos Medium-High
Triallate Medium-Low
Cyanazine Medium-Low
Paraquat Dichloride Low
2,4-D Medium-Low
Other pesticides were not included in this portion of the
analysis because applicator exposure information was not
available. Most risks were medium-low using this method of
analysis. The analysis includes the same assumptions made during
previous assessments, for example, protective clothing is worn
and certified applicators exercise appropriate precautions when
applying pesticides.
Analysis Using QPPE Report (7/26/901: Analysis Using OPPE Report
(7/26/90): OPPE provided a summary of non-dietary risks from
pesticide use. Six pesticides were used to calculate non-cancer
risks to applicators and farm workers. The Temple, Barker, and
Sloane report was used to obtain rough estimates of the
195
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population of farm workers and applicators for Region V, as
follows:
Total farm workers: 2 million (Includes unpaid workers,
hired workers, farm operators and ground applicators;
migrant workers were not added.)
Total off-site workers: 540,000 (Includes all hired workers
and commercial ground applicators.)
Using this population range, the overall ranking was found to be
Medium- High.
Other Impacts on Human Health from Pesticides in Region V
Several other potential impacts on human health exist in Region
V, which include the use of pesticides in the lawn care, turf and
golf course industries, the use of insect repellents, such as
DEET, due to concern about Lyme Disease from spread within
Region V of the Deer tick, the impacts of having 4056 pesticide
producing and custom blending establishments in Region V, and
non-occupational exposure to pesticides. These analyses were
qualitative, and are described below.
Lawn Care/Turf/Golf Course Use of Pesticides
Use of pesticides in the lawn care and turf industries, has been
estimated by U.S. EPA to be 67 million pounds of active
ingredient per year. Using a population proportion, this amount
scales down to over 12 million pounds of active ingredient per
year applied to lawns by professional lawn care operators and
homeowners in Region V. There are 17,222 certified applicators
in the turf/ornamental category in Region V, which apply
pesticides for about 3-4 hours per day during the late Spring to
early Fall season. Estimates by industry technical
representatives indicate the solutions applied are rather dilute,
with less than 1 percent active ingredient with 6-7 percent
fertilizer. The major pesticides used in the industry are 2,4-D,
MCPP, pendimethalin, diazinon, chlorpyrifos, dicamba, and
isofenphos. One company indicated that no pesticides requiring
respirators were used in their operations. In addition, the
company requires protective clothing to be worn when hauling
concentrated material and when filling tanks. During
application, boots and clean uniforms are worn and gloves are
encouraged. Over the next few years, as the Agency looks into
the lawn care industry and evaluates the risks from this use of
pesticides, more information on exposure will become available
and this can be used to make a quantitative evaluation of risk.
Discussions with golf course superintendents indicate that most
courses have at least one certified applicator on staff. Little
quantitative usage information was available, however,
conversations revealed that private golf courses tend to treat
196
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fairways and greens, while public golf courses tend to treat only
greens. Golf courses range from 90 to 200 acres in the Region,
with an average of 150-160 acres for an 18 hole course. Starting
with the 1990 season, Wisconsin is requiring that all commercial
applicators keep records of all pesticides used, including
restricted use and general use pesticides. Most golf course
superintendents are interested in gathering information which
reiieccs me tiue ptacticea in -tKei*' i/uius-k*ry. In. the future,
more information will develop to use in the quantitative
evaluation of risks from the use of pesticides on golf courses.
Insect Repellents/DEET
Use of insect repellents has increased greatly over the last few
years. USA Today found that sales of "OFF" insect repellent had
increased by 50 percent during the summer of 1989 (USA Today,
9/1/89). It can be reasonably estimated that most of the Region
V population at one time or another has used insect repellents,
and people using State Parks would be a potentially high exposure
group. In Region V, over 150,000 people used State parks in
1987, as shown in Table 5, (Statistical Abstracts of the U.S.,
1989). The Centers for Disease Control have tabulated numbers
and average annual incidence rates of reported Lyme disease cases
per 100,000 population. For Region V States the incidence in
1987-1988 was as follows:
State Incidence (per 100,000)
(1987-1988)
Illinois 8
Indiana 3
Michigan 41
Minnesota 161
Ohio 10
Wisconsin 604
With increasing concern for Lyme disease and the spread of the
Deer tick in Region V (in 1980, 226 cases of Lyme disease were
reported from 14 States, and since 1982, 13,825 cases were
reported from 42 States- Minnesota and Wisconsin reporting the
most in the Region), it can be expected that use of repellents
will most likely continue to increase. DEET is currently under
reassessment, and when more information is known on the toxicity
and exposure associated with the use of DEET, the Agency will
provide this information to states and the general public in
order to reduce the risks even further. In the interim, the
Agency recommendation is to use products with no higher that 15
percent DEET for children and infants, and to apply such products
sparingly to the outside of clothing.
-------
TABLE 5
REGION V POPULATION VISITING STATE PARKS/1987
Illinois
Indiana
Olio
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Total
Aufis
263,000
54,000
193,000
253,000
3,441,000
119 ,000
4,323,000
T-*.__ IfT-* rtrtrt \
J-*Oj \ 4 i-t- W W /
34,711
8,279
65,568
17,575
5,267
9,927
141,327
Day &
Overnight
/Tri rvrvA >
35,190
9,885
68,164
22,845
6,001
11 ,275
153,360
State Pop
r-v-i nrvn \
11,615
5,556
10,855
9,240
4,307
4,855
46,428
198
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Pesticide Producing and Custom Blending Establishments in
Region V
There are 4056 pesticide producing and custom blending
establishments located in Region V. This represents 30% of the
total number of establishments in the United States (13,744). An
attempt was made to look at the activities associated with
syntnesis 01 pesLi<~iu<=s, olic v-wi.iLinG.Licr. cf active ir.~r?c!i'?ri'i:'r
with inert pesticide ingredients to make manufacturing use
products and the further dilution into pesticide products and the
risks associated with these activities. A FIFRA/TSCA Tracking
System report was obtained with pesticide producing
establishments and products made at each location. The Toxic
Release Inventory System was then accessed to look for use of
toxic chemicals at locations where pesticides are synthesized and
formulated. About 25-30 locations were found to have reported
threshold quantities of toxic chemicals and to be associated with
the production of agricultural chemicals, as determined by
Standard Industrial Codes. The search provided only a general
idea of this association and from this, no quantitative risk
assessment was possible. In the future, as reporting becomes
more sophisticated,^ such an assessment may become possible.
Non-Agricultural Pesticide Use
The Won-Occupational Pesticide Exposure Study (NOPES) looked at
32 household pesticides and exposure of specified populations to
these pesticides. The objective of the NOPES was to estimate the
levels of non-occupational exposure to selected household
pesticides, primarily through indoor air, but also looked at
drinking water, food, and dermal contact. The study was
conducted in two locations of the United States: Jacksonville,
Florida, and Springfield and Chicopee, Massachusetts in order to
look at areas of, respectively, high and low to moderate non-
agricultural pesticide use.
Results of the NOPES study showed five pesticides were detected
at least once in minute quantities in the majority of households
sampled: chlordane, chlorpyrifos, heptachlor, orthophenylphenol,
and propoxur.
Region V could be considered primarily similar to the low-
moderate non-agricultural pesticide use, with perhaps some high
use areas in the southern parts of Indiana, Ohio, and Illinois.
Other conclusions of the NOPES:
1. Airborne concentrations of pesticide residues were
higher indoors than outdoors.
2. There were seasonal variations in ambient residue
levels.
3. Short term variations in residue levels were influenced
by recent pesticide applications, indoor ventilation,
199
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and ambient temperatures.
4. Usage categories did not correlate with airborne
residue concentrations.
5. The study suggests levels could be reduced if labels
are read closely and followed, and with improved
guidance on how to safely dispose of unused pesticides.
The LfA COnC-lUSlOll was cu<±c tut; <~oiu_eiu lui lit-uucui nca.t.j. x-Lok
from exposure to pesticides found in the study is low to
negligible. The Indoor • Air Quality Health Risk Assessment
provides further analysis of this problem area.
Ecological Risk Assessment
The assessment of ecological risk from pesticides in Region V
will include examination of a pesticide with known toxicity,
carbofuran, discussion of the endangered species protection
program, an evaluation of the agricultural impacts on the Great
Lakes, and a brief look at wetlands in Region V. Many of these
topics are qualitative in nature, because there is no standard
agency method for such assessments.
V
Carbofuran and Avian Toxicity
Carbofuran presents a risk to non-target species, which include
many avian varieties. There are documented cases of bird
poisonings after use of the granular formulation of the
pesticide. Carbofuran is used on corn and soybeans and there
were over 800,000 pounds applied to fields in the Region in one
recent year. Documented cases of poisonings in Region V are
relatively few, however, it is reasonable to assume the potential
exists for further bird poisoning incidents and currently, the
registrant is working with the agency to design better
application methods.
Endangered Species in Region V
The headquarters assessment of current Region V needs for
endangered species found few species and assessed impacts from
pesticide use as "low". To project future needs for Region V,
Temple, Barker and Sloane used U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
(FWS) listings and The Nature Conservancy listings to determine
potential candidates for protection under the OPP endangered
species protection program. Each species will be evaluated for
pesticide impacts over the next few years (jeopardy opinion) and,
given the extent of pesticide use in Region V, it is likely
several impacts will be discovered as more species are mapped.
For currently mapped species, an assessment was made using the
guidance format. For each endangered species below, the
biological effect is death, the severity would be high, the
200
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reversibility is non-existent (death=extinction) , and the numbers
affected will be few, according to the Guidance from the
Comparative Risk Technical Steering Committee.
c.
For the Kirtland's Warbler in Michigan, the .ecosystem is
forest/coniferous, and the geographic area is Jack pine forest
areas of a certain tree height. The species migrates when trees
grow aoovy tut; ci xLi^aj. neA^ni,.
For Prairie Bush Clover in Minnesota, the ecosystem is grasslands
and agricultural fields, and the geographic area is sloping sides
of grassy fields, often bordering on agricultural fields or
pastureland. These areas present a high risk of exposure from
spray drift application of pesticides.
For the Iowa Pleistocene Snail in Illinois, the ecosystem is
aquatic/rivers or streams, and the geographic area is the shores
of bodies of water with changing shoreline. Aquatic pesticides
would be of particular concern to these species. In addition,
since areas mapped to date are found on public lands, management
of the lands by departments of natural resources could be of
concern if pesticides are in the management scheme, and if run-
off is to the mapped areas.
The endangered species protection program is determined to
provide and to disseminate the information to all responsible
parties so that endangered species can be protected in an
atmosphere of cooperation and agreement by State and federal
agencies.
Other species for which jeopardy from pesticides has been
declared by FWS, include the Minnesota Trout Lily in Minnesota
and the Fresh Water Mollusk in Indiana and Ohio.
The projected map review schedule provides for review of maps in
40 counties of Region V. There will be 14 maps to review in
Illinois, 2 in Indiana, 5 in Michigan, 4 in Minnesota, 4 in Ohio,
and 10 in Wisconsin. See Appendix 1 for the list of counties and
species to be reviewed in Region V.
As the endangered species program grows and develops, activities
in this area will increase in Region V. Activities will include,
distribution and review of maps, pilot program activities in
Illinois and Michigan, distribution of Species Fact Sheets and
Pamphlets, and the development of enforcement of misuse and
misbranding violations. The endangered species program is
expected to become final in the next few months and as data is
developed, gathered and organized on pesticide effects on
wildlife, it can be expected that more consultations will take
place with FWS and additional species will be taken into the
protection program.
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Agricultural Impacts on the Great Lakes Basin
Cropland in the Great Lakes Basin counties comprises 18.5 mil-lion
acres or 18 percent of the total area of the Great Lakes Basin
counties (101.7 million acres). According to a Draft Report from
the Great Lakes National Program Office (GLNPO), U.S.
Agricultural Tillage Practices in the Great Lakes Basin, 1988,
major crupj-cuiu a.j.^a.^ wl i_ii<= L.«.o:.;i arc fcur.f. in Rosier. V ir_
northwest Ohio, the Saginaw River and Bay area, and east-central
Wisconsin. Corn is the largest crop in the basin, followed by
soybeans and small grains. (It is not clear from the report
whether acreages reported were acres harvested, or simply acres
of cropland, regardless of current usage.) Looking at acreages
devoted to cropland, the Great Lakes Basin represents 26 percent
of harvested cropland in Region V states. Portions of the
cropland are similar, with corn representing the major Region V
and Great Lakes Basin crop and soybeans the second major crop for
each.
Acres in Major Crops in Great Lakes Basin/Region V States
^G.L. Basin Region V States
Total Cropland 18.5 million 107.2 million
(26% of Region V (72..2 million
cropland harvested) harvested)
Corn 7.8 million 26.7 million
(42%) (37%)
Soybeans 4.5 million 22.6 million
(24%) (31%)
Small grains 3.1 million 11.6 million
(17%) (16%)
Tillage practices in the Great Lakes Basin were examined in 1988
by GLNPO and the conservation Technology Information Center
(CTIC). Conventional tillage is used more extensively than
conservation tillage, which is used on 27 percent of the cropland
in the Basin. Conservation tillage is used for 38 percent of the
corn crop but only 25 percent of the soybean crop. It is
interesting to note that LaPorte and Porter counties in northwest
Indiana have 95.2 percent and 89 percent, respectively, of the
acres used for corn production in conservation tillage. The
counties showing the highest proportion of acres in cropland,
which are found in Ohio, also showed the lowest rates of
conservation tillage in the basin. The draft report indicates it
would be difficult to evaluate the effect of conservation tillage
on nutrient and agricultural chemical run-off on a regional or
lake-wide scale. Research done by the U.S. EPA in the Lake Erie
basin found no significant differences in runoff, tile flow, and
pesticide losses between conservation tillage and conventional
(Fall plowing) test plots (Logan et.al., 1989). However, the
report underscores the difficulty in gathering accurate
202
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information on soil type and tillage practices on each and on
run-off in the Great Lakes basin. More research and information
on tillage practices on all agricultural acres can be expected
over the next few years, as Best Management Practices improve and
become part of farm operations in the Region. To emphasize the
importance of developing methods to reduce erosion, it is useful
to look at information found in Basic Statistics, 1982, which
provides estimate^ ui L.UC a.vCj.a.y<= cu^^al crccicn. en ICC 2
cultivated cropland in tons/acre, as follows: Illinois: 7.1,
Indiana: 6.3, Michigan: 4.5, Minnesota: 6.9, Ohio: 4.2,
Wisconsin: 6.8.
Great Lakes. Great Legacy?. published by the Conservation
Foundation, 1990, discusses agriculture in the Great Lakes Basin
and the possible sources of non-point pollution in the area,
including runoff of pesticides and nutrients from agricultural
fields and nutrients from urban area.
Estimates of pesticide usage cited in the Conservation Foundation
report show about 16,900 tons of pesticides are applied annually
in the U.S. portion of the Great Lakes Basin. In addition, usage
of fertilizers is greatest on major crops in the Great Lakes
basin. The environmental fate of pesticides and nutrients is not
well known, according to the report. The environmental fate of
these substances depends on water solubility, whether the
chemicals adhere to soil particles, persistence in the
environment, volatility, formulation and precipitation. One
source estimates that 4-20 percent of the pesticides applied is
taken up by plants and perhaps less than 0.1 percent reaches the
target pest. The remainder may follow one or more routes,
including soil, air, and water (surface and groundwater).
(Waddell, T.E., Bower, B.T., Cox, K. , Managing Agricultural
Chemicals in the Environment: The Case for a Multimedia Approach,
Washington, B.C.: The Conservation Foundation, 1988, p. 42;
Younos, T.M. Weigmann, D.L., "Pesticides: A Continuing Dilemma",
Journal Water Pollution Control Federation, 60, No.7, (1988):!,
199) .
Although the fate of applied pesticides is not well known, two
phenomena have been well described in the scientific literature:
the bioaccumulation of pesticides in fish and the effects of
increased nutrient loadings on the balance of aquatic life forms.
Pesticides and nutrients can enter the Great Lakes ecosystem
through sediment transport produced by soil erosion from
agricultural activities. Once these substances reach the
sediments of the Great Lakes, they can leach into the water
gradually and enter the food chain or upset the balance of
aquatic life in the lake.
Region V States are concerned about the contamination of fish in
the Great Lakes and issue yearly health advisories to sport
fishers. Traditionally, these advisories are based on FDA action
203
-------
levels for suspended and canceled pesticides, including aldrin,
dieldrin, chlordane, heptachlor, DDT, and mi rex. Several studies
of fish consumption have been undertaken in Region V. • For
example, a recent study by the Michigan Department of Health
found that average fish consumption is 16.1 g/day for a sample of
2600 holders of sport fishing licenses. Of the 16.1 g/day
consumed, 56 percent or 9 g/day represents commercially purchased
tisn ana t^ peiceiiL ui / y/ua._y j-c^j-co-iatLo lc.cc.lly cc.Ug^it cpcrt
fish. The population eating sportfish in Michigan was estimated
to be about 2.5 million people. Other studies have been done by
the Wisconsin Department of Health, and by the health agency for
Ontario.
Over the next few years, the fish issue will continue to be
debated between the various agencies, State and federal, which
are responsible for public health, the environment and
agriculture. The accumulation of data on residues in fish will
continue along with studies on the effects of the residues on
human health and the environment. As better data are gathered
and as residues of pesticides in Great Lakes fish continue to
decrease over time, a consensus will eventually be reached on
this issue. ,.
Wetland Areas and Pesticides
The impacts of pesticides on wetlands are largely unknown.
Discussions with the Region V Wetlands Office (Ehorn) have
indicated the majority of agricultural impacts in the Region have
been due to drainage of wetlands to make farmland. This may have
reduced critical habitat and could potentially impact the
survival of critical species, if left unchecked. The primary
impacts on wetlands in the Region are from development
(urbanization) . A thorough assessment of wetlands appears in the
Wetlands Problem Area.
Region V Pesticide Enforcement Activities
Activities related to enforcement of the pesticide statutes in
Region V have shown that enforcement actions are proportional to
the level of agricultural activity. As shown in the following
table, the Region V percentage of agricultural follow-up
inspections, which constitute investigations of alleged misuse of
pesticides, were just over 21 percent, which is similar to the
percentage of pesticide use in the region, compared to nationwide
use.
The majority of enforcement actions under the Federal
Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA), are carried
out at the State level. All Region V states have entered into
cooperative enforcement agreements with the U.S. EPA to carry out
compliance inspections and follow-up investigations under FIFRA.
204
-------
In the 1990 fiscal year, new program areas have been added to the
traditional enforcement related activities -of the Regional
pesticide sections. States are now receiving program development
funding to develop outreach and, eventually, enforcement
capabilities in the areas of Ground Water, Endangered Species and
Worker Protection from the impacts of pesticides. These efforts
are expected to intensify over the next few years as rules and
programs due 1x110.0.x^cG. en. Llxc r^Ci.Licnc.1 level. In tvr1"1. «;•»-a+•<=<;
will then add enforcement activities under the new program areas
in addition to the ongoing enforcement activities. These new
program areas are particularly dependent upon regional and state
involvement for success.
An example of the new direction enforcement is taking is the
enhanced inspections in Southeast Chicago and Northwest Indiana.
The checklist for these inspections emphasizes environmental
aspects of the facility (ie.: storage/disposal practices, and
spill/cleanup procedures, etc.). This is an effort by Indiana
and Illinois to determine what the pesticide producers do with
their excess wastes and containers. Appendix 3 contains the
checklist for enhanced inspections.
Each year, Region V* conducts approximately 8-10 Good Laboratory
Practice audits of laboratories in the Region performing testing
required under FIFRA. The majority of testing labs are found in
the eastern half of the United States and three Regional Offices
(including Region V) have their own laboratory auditors to help
perform this function, whereas laboratory audits in the western
half of the United States are largely performed by the National
Enforcement Investigations Center, in Colorado.
Summary of Regional and National Pesticide Use Enforcement
Statistics: See Attached Summary.
205
-------
SUMMARY OF REGIONAL AND NATIONAL ENFORCEMENT STATISTICS
FY 87
Region 5 Nation
FY 88
Region 5 Nation
COOPERATIVE AGREEMENTS MISUSE INSPECTIONS
arrr-iniitiiral
Follow-up
Inspections
(FUI)
Non-Ag (FUI)
Total FUI
Total FIFRA
Inspections
Percent of
Total that
were FUI
453 2,492
706 3,590
1,159 6,082
4,843 46,486
23.9 13.1
601 1,989
665 2,766
1,266 4,755
5,007 31,173
25.3 15.3
FJ^FCRCEMENT ACTIONS FROM FOLLOW-UP INSPECTIONS
Civil/
criminal
actions
Warning
Letters
Issued
Cases
referred
to EPA
Fines
Assessed
Total Use
Follow-up
Inspections
Percent
Actionable
«
43 278
227 1,171
4 37
15 245
289 1,731
25.0 28.5
33 277
294 1,166
2 54
5 254
334 1,751
26.4 36.8
FY 89
Region 5 'Nation
556 2,863
587 4,426
1,143 7,289
5,462 55,825
21.0 13.1
17 276
220 1,469
9 53
59 306
305 2,104
26.7 28.9
TOTALS FOR LAST 3 YEARS
RESIGN 5 NATIONAL PERCENT OF NATIONAL
Agricultural FUT
Kfon-Agricultiiral
FUI
Total FIFRA
Inspections
1,610
1,958
15,312
7,344
10,782
133,484
21.9
18.2
11.5
206
-------
APPENDIX 1
207
-------
EPA'S ENDANGERED SPECIES PROTECTION PROGRAM
SUMMARY OF 1990 DRAFT MAP REV1EU PRODUCTION SCHEDULE
JUNE 21. 1990
PRODUCTION DATE
06/13/90
06/29/90
07/09/90
07/09/90
07/09/90
07/09/90
07/09/90
07/09/90
07/16/90
ui y io/ TV
07/23/90
07/23/90
07/23/90
07/30/90
07/30/90
08/06/90
08/06/90
06/06/90
08/13/90
08/13/90
08/13/90
08/13/90
08/13/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/27/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
NO
TM
VA
sc
GA
MO
MS
UV
NC
(n. •
NM
NV
UT
AL
HE
AR
KS
UI
WY
MI
MT
OR
SO
CO
MO
OK
TX
IA
II
IK
LA
MM
OH
AZ
NUMBER OF KAPS (COUNTIES)
22
U,
9
6
2
1
4
4
8
6
1
9
11
33
23
7
10
1
5
8
2
11
12
33
22
40
13
14
3
1
4
4
15
TOTAL
411
ASSUMPTIONS:
1.
2.
When 1990 interim pamphlets are approved, production of the 1990 review
for production of the paophlets.
Attached is a schedule arranged alphabetically by state that outlines the
out for review. The total NUMBER OF KAPS consists of the following:
will be delayed to allow
projected to be sent
a. Except for Arizona, only those states/counties with dates in the WOOUCTIO* DATE colum,
are counted. Other states/counties (i.e., California, Florida) My be added at a later
date.
b. Although the state and county are repeated for each species SMpped in the county, a county
is only counted once.
c. Counties that contain red-cockaded woodpecker and/or eastern indigo snake only are not
counted.
3. The PftOOUCTIOH DATE is a projected date. When Mps are being drafted by the contractor,
cfrcumtances nay delay the production of some naps. For exaofile, depending on the Quality of the
species distribution information furnished by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, it my take
additional tine to clarify area to be napped.
eos
-------
EPA'S ENDANGERED SPECIES PROTECTION PROGRAM
1990 MAP REVIEW PRODUCTION SCHEDULE
PRODUCTION
DATE
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
08/06/90
08/06/90
08/06/90
08/06/90
08/06/90
08/06/90
08/06/90
08/06/90
08/06/90
08/06/90
08/06/90
08/06/90
08/06/90
08/06/90
07/16/90
07/16/90
07/16/90
07/16/90
07/16/90
07/16/90
07/16/90
07/16/90
07/16/90
07/16/90
07/16/90
JUNE 21. 1990
fOOTMOTE REGION
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
05
OS
05
05
OS
OS
OS
OS
OS
OS
05
05 •
OS
OS
OS
05
OS
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
04
IK
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
COUNTY
SPECIES
IA
1A
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
R
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IN
IN
IN
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
Cf
KT
rr
rr
KT
KY
KY
KY
cr
KY
KY
CLINTON
CLINTON
DES KOINES
DUBUQUE
JACKSON
LOUISA
MUSCAT I NE
POTTAWATTAMIE
POTTAUATTAMIE
SCOTT
WINNESHIEK
UOODBURY
WOOD BURY
ADAMS
ALEXANDER
COOK
GAL LATIN
HANCOCK
HENDERSON
JO DAVIES
LEE
MASSAC
MERCER
PIKE
PULASKI
ROCK ISLAND
WHITE
DE KALB
GIBSON
POSEY
BARTON
BARTON
CLARK
CLARK
COMANCHE
CCMANCME
KEADE
MEADE
PHILLIPS
PHILLIPS
RICE
RICE
STAFFORD
STAFFORD
BARREN
BELL
BUTLER
BUTLER
BUTLER
BUTLER
EDNONSON
EDMONSON
EDMONSON
GREEN
GREEN
PEARLY MUSSEL, HIGGINS' EYE
SNAIL. IOWA PLEISTOCENE
PEARLY MUSSEL, HIGGINS' EYE
PEARLY MUSSEL, HIGGINS' EYE
PEARLY MUSSEL, HIGGINS' EYE
PEARLY MUSSEL, HIGGIHS' EYE
PEARLY MUSSEL. HJGGINS' EYE
PLOVER, P1P1NU
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
PEARLY MUSSEL, HIGGINS' EYE
BUSH-CLOVER, PRAIRIE
PLOVER, PIPING
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
POCKETBOOK, FAT
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
BUCK-CLOVER, PRAIRIE
POCKETBOOK, FAT
POCKETBOOK, FAT
PEARLY MUSSEL, HIGGINS* EYE
PEARLY MUSSEL, HIGGINS' EYE
BUSH-CLOVER, PRAIRIE
PEARLY MUSSEL. ORANGE-FOOTED
PEARLY MUSSEL, HIGGINS' EYE
POCKETBOOK, FAT "
PEARLY MUSSEL, ORANGE-FOOTED
PEARLY MUSSEL. HIGGINS' EYE
POCKETBOOK. FAT
PEARLY MUSSEL. WHITE CAT'S PAW
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
POCKETBOOK, FAT
PLOVER, PIPING
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
PLOVER, PIPING
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
PLOVER, PIPING
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
PLOVER, PIPING
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
PLOVER. PIPING
TERN. INTERIOR LEAST
PLOVER, PIPING
TERN. INTERIOR LEAST
PLOVER. PIPING
TERN. INTERIOR LEAST
SHRIMP. KENTUCKY CAVE
DACE. BLACKSIOE
PEARLY MUSSEL, ORANGE-FOOTED
PEARLY MUSSEL, PINK NUCKET
PIGTOE. ROUGH
POCKETaoOK, FAT
PIGTOE. ROUGH
POCKETBOOK, FAT
SHRIMP, KENTUCKY CAVE
PIGTOE, ROUGH
POCKETBOOK, FAT
209
-------
ERA'S ENDANGERED SPECIES PROTECTION PROGRAM
1990 HAP REVIEW PRODUCTION SCHEDULE
PRODUCTION
DATE
JUNE 2V, 1990
REG10H
COUNTY
SPECIES
07/09/90
08/13/90
08/13/90
08/13/90
08/13/90
08/13/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
-
.
-
-
-
-
.
-
-
•
—
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
•
-
-
-
•
-
.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
03
05
05
05
05
05
05
OS
05
05
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
07
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
MD
HI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MN
MN
MN
MN
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO -
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
RAPIDES
RED RIVER
ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA
TERREBONNE
UNION
VERNON
WASHING! UK
WEBSTER
WINN
HARFORD
ALGER
CHARLEVOIX
CHIPPEUA
EMMET
LUCE
HOUSTON
LAKE OF THE WOODS
WASHINGTON
WIHOMA
BENTON
BOLLINGER
BUTLER
BUTLER
CAMDEN
CEDAR
CEDAR
CLARK
COLE
DALLAS
DUNKLIN
FRANKLIN
GASCONADE
GREENE
GREENE
HICKORY
JASPER
JEFFERSON
LAWRENCE
LEWIS
MARION
MILLER
MILLER
MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID
NEWTON
OSAGE
OSAGE
PEMISCOT
PIKE
POLK
RALLS
RIPLET
RIPLET
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADED
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADED
WOODPECKER, REO-CCCKADEO
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADEO
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADEO
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADED
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADED
MJUUCCUkCK, KCil-UAAAUCU
WOODPECKER. RED-COCKADED
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADED
DARTER, MARYLAND
PLOVER, PIPING
PLOVER, PIPING
PLOVER, PIPING
PLOVER, PIPING
PLOVER, PIPING
PEARLY MUSSEL. HIGGINS' EYE
PLOVER, PIPING
PEARLY MUSSEL, HIGGINS' EYE
PEARLY MUSSEL, HIGGINS1 EYE
DARTER. NIANGUA
PEARLY MUSSEL, CURTIS'
PEARLY MUSSEL. CURTIS'
PEARLY MUSSEL, PINK MUCKET
DARTER. NIANGUA
DARTER, NIANGUA
PEARLY MUSSEL, PINK MUttET
POCKET800K, FAT
PEARLY MUSSEL. PINK MUCKET
DARTER, NIANGUA
POCKET800K, FAT
PEARLY MUSSEL, PINK MUCKET
PEARLY MUSSEL, PINK MUCKET
CAVEFISH, OZARK
DARTER, NIANGUA
DARTER, NIANGUA
CAVEFISH, OZARK
PEARLY MUSSEL, PINK MUCKET
CAVEFISH. OZARK
POCKETBOOK, FAT
PEARLY MUSSEL, HIGGINS' EYE
DARTER, NIANGUA
PEARLY MUSSEL, PINK MUCKET
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
CAVEFISH, OZARK
DARTER, NIANGUA
PEARLY MUSSEL, PINK MUCKET
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
POCKETBOOK, FAT
DARTER, NIANGUA
POCKETBOOK, FAT
PEARLY MUSSEL. CURTIS'
PEARLY MUSSEL, PINK MUCKET
210
-------
EPA'S ENDANGERED SPECIES PROTECTION PROGRAM
1990 HAP REVIEW PRODUCTION SCHEDULE
JUNE 21, 1990
PRODUCTION
DATE
07/23/90
07/23/90
09/05/90
09/05/90
UT/ W«*/ 7V
09/05/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
*
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/20/90
08/13/90
08/13/90
08/13/90
08/13/90
COUNTY
SPECIES
07/09/90
07/09/90
07/09/70
07/09/90
-
-
.
-
-
.
-
-
-
-
-
-
.
-
-
-
-
2
-
-
-
-
2
-
-
-
-
.
-
-
.
-
-
-
5
2
2
2
2
-
2
2
2
.
2
2
2
-
2
2
2
-
06
09
05
05
OS
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
• 06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
10
10
10
10
02
04
. 04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
MM
NV
OH
OH
nu
OH
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OR
OR
OR
OR
PR
sc
sc
sc
sc
sc
sc
sc
sc
sc
sc
sc
sc
sc
sc
sc
sc
sc
SCCORRO
CLARK
GALLIA
PICKAWAY
uicuTurrnN
WILLIAMS
ALFALFA
BEAVER
CLEVELAND
COTTON
ELLIS
HARMON
HARPER
HASKELL
JACKSON
KAY
LOGAN
NCCLAIN
MCCURTA1N
MUSKOGEE
NOBLE
OSAGE
PUSHMATAHA
ROGER MILLS
TEXAS
TEXAS
TILLMAN
TULSA
UAGONER
WOODS
WOODWARD
KLAMATH
KLAMATH
LAKE
LAKE
PUERTO RICO
ABBEVILLE
AIKEN
ALLENDALE
BARNWELL
BEAUFORT
BEAUFORT
BERKELEY
CALMOUN
CHARLESTON
CHARLESTON
CHESTERFIELD
CLARENDON
COLLETON
COLLETOM
DARLINGTON
DILLON
DORCHESTER
PENNYROYAL . TOOSEM'S
WOUNDF1N
PEARLY MUSSEL. PINK MUCKET
MAOTOM, SCIOTO
PEARLY MUSSEL. PINK MUCICET
PEARLY NUSStL. wniit CAI a r«.
TERN. INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, -INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKAOED
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
TERM. INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADED
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
PLOVER, PIPING
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
TERN, INTERIOR LEAST
SUCKER, LOST RIVER
SUCKER, SHORTNOSE
CHUB, MUTTON TUI
SUCKER, WARNER
TOAD, PUERTO RICAN CRESTED
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADED
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADED
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKAOED '
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADED
STORK, WOOD
WOODPECKER. RED-COCKAOED
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADED
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKAOED
STORK, WOOD
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADED
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADED
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADED
STORK, WOOD
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADED
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADEO
WOODPECKER, RED-COCKADED
STORK, WOOD
211
-------
EPA'S ENDANGERED SPECIES PROTECTION PROGRAM
1990 MAP REVIEW PRODUCTION SCHEDULE
JUNE 21, 1990
PRODUCTION
DATE FOOTNOTE REGION STATE COUNTY
07/09/90 - 03
07/09/90 - 03
07/09/90 - 03
07/09/90 • 03
07/09/90 - 03
07/09/90 - 03
«T tf*\ »rV% . O*
07/09/90 • 03
07/09/90 - 03
07/09/90 - 03
07/09/90 - 03
07/09/90 - 03
07/09/90 - 03
07/09/90 • 03
07/09/90 • 03
07/09/90 - 03
07/09/90 - 03
08/06/90 • 05
08/06/90 - OS
08/06/90 • OS
08/06/90 • OS
08/06/90 • 05
08/06/90 - OS
08/06/90 • OS
08/06/90 - 05
08/06/90 • 05
08/06/90 - OS
07/09/90 - 03
07/09/90 - 03
07/09/90 - 03
07/09/90 - 03
07/09/90 - 03
08/13/90 - 08
SPECIES
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
v*
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
WI
UI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
UV
wv
wv
wv
wv
RUSSELL
RUSSELL
SCOTT
SCOTT
SCOTT
SCOTT
-------
APPENDIX 2
213
-------
CO
D
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-5
V
B
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3
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z
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r
t
X
Q
•H
"S
O
4
C
•H
rS
^
43
Q
5
r-(
r-l
M
>
g
-H
ST
S
(S
CO
o\
s
p»
CO
cn
,-1
&
>.5«
ill
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APPENDIX 3
217
-------
Disposal questions apply to pesticides and pesticide related wastes,
storage questions apply to pesticides and pesticide containers.
l. Are disposal records maintained? yes no
2. Identify the types and amounts of wastes or containers held for
disposal, and the type of disposal practices
used?
3. Are containers triple rinsed before disposal?
What do you do with the rinsate?
_no,
4. Do you store any excess pesticides or containers on site?_
no
no Where?
Off site?
a. Is this a temporary or a permanent site?
b. Are there identification signs around the storage or
containment area? yes no
c. Is the storage or containment area they are stored in
secure and locked? yes no
d. Is the facility separated from any streams? yes
_no, areas of runoff? yes no, Flood plains?
_no
e. Is there diking around the storage area?
f. Are there any drains in the storage are?
_no
no
5. Do any of the pesticides you store carry the signal words danger,
poison or warning? yes no, Are any classified as a hazardous
waste? yes no
6. Do you keep records of any pesticide spills or inadvertent
releases into the environment? yes no, Have there been any
spills at or above 100 Ibs or 1000 gallons [which would necessitate
reporting under the Bnergency Planning and Comrainity Right to Know Act
(EPCRA)]? yes no
7. Is there an available floor plan of the storage area?
no, Is this provided to the fire department? yes
no, Is
the fire chief furnished with the home telephone number of the person
responsible for the pesticide storage facility? yes no, Is
this also provided to the Regional emergency response team, U.S. Coast
Guard, and the National Agricultural Chemicals Association (NACA)?
8. Do you have an established spill/cleanup procedure? yes
no, Are the telephone numbers of the area hospitals, public
health service, fire department available? yes no
9. Is there a fire extinguisher on the premises?
218
-------
10. Do you store or dispose any pesticides containing heavy metals,
including but not limited to arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, meicury,
manganese, zinc, chromium, tin, thallium and selenium? yes
no,
How are the containers and pesticides disposed of?
Are they encapsulated prior to disposal?
219
-------
References
Great Lakes
1. Pranckevicius, P.E., Schroer, K., Manne, B., Anscombe, F., Draft,
U.S. Agricultural Tillage Practices in the Great Lakes Basin, 1988;
U.S. EPA, Great Lakes National Program, Chicago, Illinois 60604.
2. Thomas E. Wadell and Blair T. Bower with Kathy Cox, Managing
Agricultural uienucais iu i_ue EliviiuiiiiKiiiL.; Tuc Coo<= lor a ILLltiruCcIia
Approach (Washington, D.C.: The Conservation Foundation, 1988), P. 42.
3. Tamim M. Younos and Diana L. Weigmann, "Pesticides and
Groundwater: A Guide for the Pesticide User" (Ithaca, N.Y.: U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Department of Agriculture,
1988).
4. International Joint Conmission, Great Lakes Water Quality Board,
1987 Report (Windsor, Ontario: International Joint Commission, 1987).
5. "Michigan Futures Team Plans Long-Range Agriculture Strategy",
Great Lakes Comnission Advisor 1, No. 9 (1988): 6.
6. Tamim M. Younos and Diana L. Weigmann, "Pesticides: A Continuing
Dilenma", Journal Water Pollution Control Federation, 60, No. 7
(1988): 1, 199.
7. Richard Frank and Peter Boyer, "State of Integrated Pest
Management Programs in the Great Lakes Basin and on a Global Basis",
prepared for the Science Advisory Board, International Joint
Contnission, April, 1988.
8. Great Lakes Great Legacy? The Conservation Foundation,
Washington, D.c., and The Institute for Research on Public Policy,
Ottawa, Ontario, 1990.
Pesticide Usage Data
9. Pike, D.R. , Knake, E.L. , Kuhlman, D.E. , McGlamery, M.D., Paj^ky,
N.R., Pesticide Use in Illinois: Results of a 1988 Survey of Major
Crops; University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of
Agriculture, Cooperative Extension Service, Circular 1301, January
1990.
10. Minnesota Agricultural Statistics 1985; Compiled and Issued by
the Minnesota Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Statistical Reporting Service Cooperating With the
Minnesota Department of Agriculture, July 1985, pp. 50-53.
11. Aim, A.A., Butler-Fasteland, M.; Herbicide Usage for Forest
Management in Minnesota, 1983-1987; Northern Journal of Applied
Forestry, Vol.6, No.2: June 1989; pp. 82-84.
220
-------
12. Acreage, Yield, and Production by Districts and Counties in
Minnesota, 1988-1989, for Corn, Dry Beans, Alfalfa Hay, All Hay, Oats,
Barley Rye, Soybeans, Sugar Beets, All Sunflowers, Oil Sunflowers,
Spring Wheat, Winter Wheat and All Wheat.
13. Restricted Use Pesticide Sales by County and by Product for 1988.
(Minnesota- Confidential Business Information) .
14. Wisconsin, 1985, Pesticide Use, Wisconsin Department of
Agriculture, iraae aria u^iisuitei ruuutx.i_.i.uii. 5
15. Michigan Agricultural Statistics 1989; Michigan Department of
Agriculture, MASS-89-01. 88 pages.
16. Telephone Coimiunication, Tom Jordan, Purdue University/ U.S.
Department of Agriculture, Cooperative Extension Service; 1988
Pesticide use Survey for Major Agronomic Crops in Indiana (In
Preparation) .
17. Waldron, Acie C. , and Carter, H. , Pesticide Use on Major Crops in
the Ohio River Basin of Ohio and Summary and State Usage, 1986. 267
pages.
18. Waldron, Acie C. , Curtner, R.L. , and Fingerhut, B.A. , Pesticide
Use on Fruit and Vegetable Crops in Ohio, 1983, Ohio State University/
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Cooperative Extension Service.
Pesticides and Fish
19. University of Wisconsin Sea Grant Institute, "The Fisheries of
the Great Lakes, 1984-1986 Biennial Report (Madison, Wisconsin, Sea
Grant Institute, 1986.
20. R. Norstrom, D. Hallett, and R. Sonstergard, "Coho Salmon
(Oncorhynchus kisutch) and Herring Gulls (Larus argenatus) as
Indicators of Organochlorine Contamination in Lake Ontario" , Journal
of the Fisheries Research Board of ranaria 35, No. 22 (1978): 1401-
1409.
j
21. Summary and Analysis of Existing Sportfish Consumption Advisory
Programs in the Great Lakes Basin, The Great Lakes Fish Consumption
Advisory Task Force, Henry A. Anderson, M.D. , and Lee Liebenstein, Co-
Chairs, State of Wisconsin, May 1990, Report prepared by John W.
Hesse, Michigan Department of Public Health.
Nonpoint Source Pollution
22. Michigan Department of Natural Resources, "Michigan's 1988
Nonpoint Pollution Assessment Report", Draft, Lansing, Michigan, 1988.
23. Ohio Environmental Protection Agency, Ohio Nonpoint Source
Assessment.
221
-------
Other
24. Unfinished Business: A Conparative Assessment of Environmental
Problems, Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, U.S. EEA,
February, 1987.
25. Dietary and Non-Dietary Risk from Pesticide Use/Analysis for
Regional Conparative Risk Project, Office of Policy, Planning and
Evaluation, U.S. EPA, July 26, 1990.
222
-------
DRAFT
14. SULFUR OXIDES MID NITROGEN OXIDES (INCLUDING ACID DEPOSITION)
PROBLEM AREA DEFINITION AND DESCRIPTION
Sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides cause a wide variety of primary and
secondary effects. Primary effects include health, visibility/ and
welfare impacts. A major secondary effect is acid deposition, which
results from chemical transformations of oxides of sulfur and nitrogen
to compounds sometimes referred to as acid aerosols. This process
results in the production of acid rain, snow, and fog, as well as dry
deposition. Acid deposition alters the chemistry of affected aquatic
and terrestrial ecosystems, damaging plant and animal life. Sources are
a wide variety of industrial, commercial, and residential fuel and
related combustion sources. This problem also includes visibility
effects resulting from the long range transport of sulfates.
HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT
TOXICITY ASSESSMENT
Primary National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) were established
to define levels of air quality which are necessary to protect public
health, with an adequate margin of safety. The NAAQS for sulfur dioxide
are 80 /ig/m3, annual arithmetic mean and 365 /xg/m3, maximum 24-hour
concentration not to be exceeded more than once per year. The NAAQS for
nitrogen dioxide is 0.053 parts per million (ppm), annual arithmetic
mean concentration.
Exposure to sulfur dioxide can significantly increase the incidence of
acute and chronic respiratory diseases as well as cause permanent damage
to lung tissue. Exposure to nitrogen dioxide is also associated with
respiratory illness and lung damage.
Acid aerosols irritate the lungs, causing constricted breathing. These
effects are of particular concern to asthmatics, who are especially
vulnerable. In addition, studies have shown that rising acid aerosol
levels correspond to increased hospital admissions for acute respiratory
illnesses. Exposure to acid aerosols has also been associated with
increased incidence of chronic cough and bronchitis, as well as
premature death.
EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT
Sulfur dioxide is emitted primarily in the combustion of fossil fuels,
particularly coal. The use of coal-fired power plants by the utility
industry accounts for approximately 63 percent of nationwide emissions
of sulfur dioxide. Other sulfur dioxide sources include industrial
processes such as petroleum refining, pulp and paper manufacturing, iron
and steel production, and industrial boilers.
223
-------
Region V emissions contribute more to the national total than any other
region, with 1,932 major facilities (greater than 100 tons per year)
emitting a total of 7,121,721 tons of sulfur dioxide per year. This
corresponds to 31 percent of total national emissions. In addition,
parts of 29 counties in Region V are classified in the Code of Federal
Regulations (CFR) as not attaining the primary or secondary National
Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for sulfur dioxide and 75 counties,
which are not listed in the CFR as nonattainment, have been issued State
Implementation Plan (SIP) calls to revise a deficient SIP. This
corresponds to approximately 5.5 million people and 7.8 people living in
these areas respectively. Further, review of 1987 through 1989
monitoring data indicates that 13 counties in Region V have recorded
/ values exceeding the National Ambient Air Quality Standard.
Nitrogen oxide emissions are also the result of fossil fuel combustion,
namely the combustion of coal, natural gas, oil, and gasoline. Major
emitters include the utility industry, industrial sources, and mobile
sources. There are no areas in Region V which are classified in the CFR
as nonattainment for nitrogen dioxide, no areas that have been issued
SIP calls, and no areas with a monitored violation of the NAAQS.
Sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides interact with sunlight and water
vapor to form acidic sulfate and nitrate particles, often referred to as
acid aerosols. These acid aerosols can fall to the earth as acid rain,
snow, or fog, as well as join with dust and other dry airborne particles
to fall as dry deposition. Given the limited data available, it is
estimated that approximately 23 million people in Region V live in areas
where sulfate levels exceed 7.0 /ig/m3 and approximately 9 million of
these people live in areas where sulfate levels exceed 10
HCMAN ra*T.TH RISK CHARACTERIZATION
To characterize health effects due to acid deposition, Region V is using
a method developed by RCG/Hagler, Baily Inc. under contract to EPA. In
this method, ambient sulfate levels are used in the following equations
to calculate the annual number of deaths, hospital emissions, children
with respiratory symptoms, and adults with respiratory symptoms
resulting from exposure to acid aerosols. In Region V, only sulfate
levels above 7.0 /ixg/m3 were used in the equations to calculate annual
deaths and annual hospital emissions. To calculate the number of
children and adults with respiratory systems, sulfate levels greater
than or equal to 10 jig/m3 were used.
Annual Deaths = (0.000037) (Sj - 10) (POPp
where, j = location of monitoring site
S. = Annual average sulfate level recorded at
monitoring site j (if > 7.0 Mg/m3)
= exposed population at monitoring site j
224
-------
Annual Hospital admissions = (0.000086) (S./9) (POP.)
where, j = location of monitoring site
S. = Annual average sulfate level recorded at
monitoring site j (if > 7.0 Mg/m3)
POP- = exposed population at monitoring site j
Children With Respiratory Symptoms = (0.035) (C)
where, C = the number of children in areas where the
annual average sulfate level is greater than
or equal to 10
Adults With Respiratory Symptoms = (0.05) (M) + (0.02) (W)
where, M = the number of men in areas where the annual
average sulfate level is greater than
or equal to 10 Mg/m3
W = the number of women in areas where the annual
average sulfate level is greater than
or equal to 10
Monitoring data (visually 1989 annual concentration) and 1980 census data
were used in the above equations to assess health impacts. It was
estimated that exposure to acid aerosols in Region V results in 485
annual deaths and over 2,000 annual hospital admissions. In addition,
it is estimated that nearly 109,000 children and 227,000 adults in
Region V experience respiratory symptoms.
It is highly certain that people in Region V are experiencing adverse
health effects due to acid aerosols. It should be noted, however, that
the quantitative estimates of health effects proposed in the method
presented above are based on epidemiological study results, which
demonstrate association, but not causation. There is, therefore, some
uncertainty regarding the magnitude and in some cases even the existence
of the presumed causal relationship presented between the pollutants and
human health. Also, although sulfate aerosols were the best indicator
for the data which was available, acidic sulfate aerosols' are actually a
more valid indicator. Finally, it is difficult to accurately determine
the number of people exposed. Problems associated with determining this
number include basing judgements on the limited monitoring data
available, estimating the area for which the monitor is representative,
and estimating the number of people in this area who are actually
exposed to the pollutant. This process leads to a moderate degree of
uncertainty.
225
-------
ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
TOXICTTY ASSESSMENT
Acid deposition can severely effect aquatic systems by lowering the pH
of surface waters. At pH levels of 5.6, there is a decrease in the
diversity of the invertebrate community. When waters have an acid
neutralizing capacity (ANC) less than zero and a pH less than 5, they
are considered to be acidic. At this level, most fish die or cannot
reproduce. In addition, many aquatic organisms cannot survive. Waters
which are sensitive to acid but are not yet acidified may also
experience episodic acidification during spring snow melt or heavy
/rainstorms. Generally, young fish and eggs will not survive these
episodes.
The degree to which waters will be affected depends both on the level of
acid deposition within the watershed and the ability of the soil and
bedrock to act as a buffer. The buffering capacity of an increasing
number of watersheds will be consumed if the current rate of acid
deposition persists, thus causing more waters to become acidified.
In addition to acidifying surface waters, acid rain can leach toxic
metals, including mercury, from the soil and deposit them in the
waterways. This problem is particularly evident in Region V states,
where biologists have found unsafe levels of mercury in fish in inland
lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
Studies have also indicated that the nitrogen compounds present in acid
rain may act as a fertilizes, causing excessive growth of algae. When
the algae die, the decaying algae depress oxygen levels, thus
contributing to eutrophication. This, in turn, can threaten fish
population.
Forests are also threatened by acid deposition. Exposure to highly
acidified rain or fog can injure leaves and needles. Further, tree
growth may be stunted by alteration in soil chemistry caused by leaching
of nutrients, such as magnesium and calcium, from the soi^ and by
contamination of the soil with heavy metals, such as aluminum, that are
released from soil particles. In addition, acid deposition can destroy
flora and kill nitrogen-fixing microorganisms that nourish plants.
EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT
In the states east of the Mississippi, rain is almost always acidic.
Contour maps of annual precipitation throughout the United States
indicate that rain in Region V ranges from a pH of approximately 5.3 in
Minnesota to a ph of 4.2 in eastern Ohio. On average, the majority of
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio experience rain with a pH of 4.4
to 4.6.
226
-------
ECOIOGICAL RISK CHaRaCTERIZATION
The effect of acid deposition on Region V lakes was evaluated using data
provided in the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program's
"Interim Assessment - The Causes and Effects of Acidic Deposition:
Volume IV." In this report, four areas of Region V were studied: North
East Minnesota, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, North Central
Wisconsin, and the Upper Great lakes. These areas are depicted in
Figure 14-1 and the results of the lake survey are presented in Table
14-1. Lakes less than 2000 hectares (approximately 494,000 acres) were
studied.
Figure 14-1. Areas Studied
•v— —
}
f
f
i
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' ^ v y
i
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i
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2A: North East Minnesota
2B: Upper Peninsula of Michigan
2C: North Central Wisconsin
2D: Upper Great
227
-------
Table 14-1. pH Levels of
in Region V
VttJ
pH
/
£
5.0
•v\lJ
pH
5.0
to
5.5
pH
<
5.5
Number of
Tnkas
Percent of
lake Area
Area in
Hectares
(Acres)
Number of
IrllCPS
Percent of
lake Area
Area in
Hectares
(Acres)
Number of
lakes
Percent of
lake Area
Area in
Hectares
(Acres)
North
East
Minnesota
0
0%
0
0
0%
0
0
0%1
0
Upper
Peninsula
of Michigan
95
2%
680
(1,680)
42
1%
340
(840)
137
3%
1200
(2,520)
North
Central
Wisconsin
30
0%1
0
133
2%
1,960
(4,843)
163
2%
1,960
(4,843)
Upper
Great
T alctag
0
0%
0
0
0%
0
0
0%
0
less than 0.5%
228
-------
WELFARE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
Research on the visibility problem over the past few years has yielded
considerable insight into the aerosols responsible for visibility
degradation and sources associated with those aerosols. Sulfates are
responsible for a major portion of the visibility problem, with organic
aerosols being the other significant contributor. The problem is most
severe in Ohio, Indiana, and the South Central portion of Illinois, with
a median summer visual range of 15 km. The median visual range for
Northern Michigan, Wisconsin, and minnesota is approximately twice this
distance, or about 30 km.
Tto be completed by contractor.
229
-------
References
United States Environmental Protection Agency. 1991 Framework for Grand
Allocations; Workbook for May Meeting; Draft. Prepared by Temple,
Barker & Sloane, Inc. for Office of Air and Radiation. 24 April 1990.
United States Environmental Protection Agency. Clean ATT- Farf-jg; Causes and
Impacts of Acid Rain. Issue No. 16. 2 February 1990.
NAPAP ^nterim Assessment: Volume IV (to be added)
United States Environmental Protection Agency. Unfinished Business: A
Comparative Assessment of Environmental Problems. Office of Policy
Analysis and Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation. February 1987.
United States Environmental Protection Agency, Region I. Unfinished Business
in New England; A Comparative Assessment of Environmental Problems.
December 1988.
United States Environmental Protection Agency, Region X. Comparative Risk
Project. June 1988.
230
-------
DRAFT
15. OZONE AND CARBON MONOXIDE
PROBLEM AREA DEFINITION AND DESCRIPTION
Ozone and Carbon Monoxide are major pollutants in many areas, arising
from both mobile and stationary sources. Damage to human health,
forests and crops can be severe. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are
critical precursors to ozone formation, but the direct effects of VOCs
are included in the Air Toxics problem area. To the extent that VOCs
result in ozone, those ozone effects are captured by this problem area.
HUMAN HBAT.Tff RISK ASSESSMENT
TOXICTTY ASSESSMENT
Primary National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) were established
to define levels of air quality which are necessary to protect public
health, with an adequate margin of safety. The NAAQS for ozone is 0.12
parts per million (ppm) . The standard is attained when the expected
number of days per calendar year with maximum hourly average
concentrations above 0.12 ppm is equal to or less than 1. The primary
NAAQS for carbon monoxide are 9 ppm for an 8-hour average concentration
and 35 ppm for a 1-hour average concentration, neither of which is to be
exceeded more than once per year.
Exposure to unacceptable levels of ozone can cause various health
effects. Studies indicate that healthy individuals exposed to ozone may
experience chest pain, coughing, wheezing, pulmonary and nasal
congestion, labored breathing, sore throat, nausea, increased
respiratory rate, and loss of lung function. Exposure to ozone has also
been associated with increased asthma attacks, reduced resistance to
infection and damage to lung tissue.
There is growing concern that long-term exposure to ozone at current
levels may lead to chronic effects. Preliminary data indicates that
these effects take the form of irreversible lung injury and/or lung
disease such as lesions in the lung. Children and outdoor workers are
considered to be most susceptible because, on average, they spend more
time outdoors. Further, children may be particularly sensitive because
their lungs are still developing.
Carbon monoxide can impair breathing, vision, alertness and mental
function, aggravate existing conditions such as angina, and, under acute
conditions, cause nausea, vomiting, dizziness, unconsciousness, and
death.
231
-------
EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT
Ozone is not emitted directly into the air, but rather is formed by a
series of chemical reactions involving precursor emissions of volatile
organic compounds (VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen. VOCs are emitted from
sources including automobiles, dry cleaners, bakeries, auto body paint
shops, household cleaning products, and any sources using solvents.
Oxides of nitrogen are emitted in the combustion of fossil fuels,
predominantly from motor vehicles.
There are 81 counties in Region V that are classified in the Code of
Federal Regulations (CFR) as not attaining the NAAQS for ozone, and 36
additional counties, which are not listed in the CFR as nonattainment,
that have been issued State Implementation Plan (SIP) calls for
violations of the NAAQS for ozone. This corresponds to approximately
25.8 million people and 3.3 million people, respectively, living in
these areas. Further, of the 93 Region V counties that were monitored
in 1988, 88 recorded values above 0.105 ppm and 63 recorded values above
0.125. This corresponds to over 28 million people in Region V who are
living in areas where ambient concentrations exceed 0.105 ppm, with over
25 million of these people living in areas where ambient concentrations
also exceed the NAAQS.
Due to growing concern that the current ozone standard may not provide
an adequate margin of safety to protect public health, Region V is using
0.10 ppm as a threshold for health impacts rather than the NAAQS of 0.12
ppm. This is a conservative approach and does not reflect EPA's current
official position.
Carbon monoxide is produced by incomplete combustion of carbon fuels.
The major source of carbon monoxide is motor vehicle exhaust,
particularly when engines are burning fuel inefficiently as they do when
vehicles are started, idling, or moving slowly, other sources include
incinerators and industrial processes
With respect to carbon monoxide, parts of 10 counties in Region V are
listed in the CFR as not attaining the NAAQS. In addition, there are 26
counties, which are not listed in the CFR as nonattainmenb, that have
been issued SIP calls for violations of the NAAQS for carbon monoxide.
Further, review of 1987 through 1989 monitoring data indicates that
portions of the population of 12 Region V cities are exposed to carbon
monoxide levels violating the NAAQS of 9 ppm C> 9.5 ppm), and portions
of the population in three of those cities are exposed to levels
exceeding 15 ppm (> 15.5 ppm). Using expert judgement, it was estimated
that approximately 1,460,000 people were exposed to levels exceeding 9.5
ppm and 117,000 of these people were exposed to levels exceeding 15.5
ppm.
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HUMAN TraAT.TH RISK CHARACTERIZATION
To characterize health effects resulting from exposure to ozone, Region
V is using a method developed by ROG/Hagler, Baily Inc. under contract
to EPA. This method uses the following equations to calculate the
annual number of asthma attacks and the annual number of people days of
respiratory restricted activity.
Annual Number of Asthma = (0.4) (POPp (EXDAY.) (0.00037)
Attacks at Location j
Annual Number of People Days
of Respiratory Restricted = (0.96) (POPj) (EXDAYj) (0.00116)
Activity at location j
where, j = location of monitoring site
POP- = exposed population at monitoring site j
EXDAY. = number of days where the ozone
concentration exceeded 0.10 ppm at
monitoring site j
Using 1988 monitoring data along with corresponding county populations,
5,806 annual asthma attacks and 436,861 annual people days of
respiratory restricted activity in Region V were estimated to result
from exposure to ozone.
Methods developed by ROG/Hagler, Baily Inc. under contract to EPA were
also used to characterize public health effects resulting from exposure
to carbon monoxide. It was estimated that at carbon monoxide
concentrations greater than 9 ppm but less than 15 ppm, 10 percent of
the exposed population are at moderate risk of increased angina pain and
90 percent of the exposed population are at low risk of mild symptoms.
At concentrations above 15 ppm, 10 percent of the population are at high
risk of increased angina pain and the remaining 90 percent of the
population are at moderate risk of mild symptoms. Results based on
review of 1987 through 1989 monitoring data indicate that 11,600 people
in Region V are estimated to be at high risk of experiencing increased
angina pain while 146,000 are at moderate risk. In addition, it is
estimated that 105,000 people in Region V are at moderate risk of
experiencing mild symptoms, while 1,314,000 are at low risk.
It is highly certain that people in Region V are experiencing adverse
health effects due to the significant ozone problem. It is also highly
certain that people in various areas in Region V are experiencing
adverse health effects due to exposure to carbon monoxide. However,
only a moderate degree of certainty can be associated with the exact
number of people experiencing the specific health effects which are
presented above. The greatest difficulty in determining exact figures
arises in assessing the number of people exposed. First, it is not
certain that all exceedances of the NAAQS were monitored. In
particular, we are confident that there are numerous areas in Region V,
which are not monitored, that have ambient ozone concentrations
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exceeding the cut-off of 0.10 ppm. Since only monitoring data was used,
the figures presented above are likely to underestimate the risk.
Second, the area for which the monitor is representative must be
determined. Finally, the number of people in this area who are actually
exposed to the pollutant must be determined. This process leads to a
moderate degree of uncertainty.
ECOIDGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
TOXTCTTY ASSESSMENT
Plant responses to ozone include biochemical and physiological
alterations, visible foliar injury, reduction in growth, losses in
yield, and alterations in reproductive capacity. The majority of the
evidence available focuses largely on reduction in growth and yield
resulting from long-term exposure to various ozone concentrations.
Although the actual amount of yield loss due to decreased aesthetic
value or appearance is important for crops such as tobacco, spinach, and
ornamentals, it is difficult to quantify. Consequently, ozone induced
yield loss is primarily quantified in terms of reduction in weight or
volume. It is noted, however, that plant appearance can be affected by
exposure to concentrations as low as 0.041 ppm for several weeks or 0.10
ppm for 2 hours.
Damage to white pine in the eastern United States and Canada has been
associated with repeated exposure to peak ozone concentrations of 0.08
ppm or greater. In addition, it is believed that ozone is a major
contributor the decline in growth rates of red spruce at numerous high-
elevation sites throughout the Appalachian Mountains.
The Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards produced a study
entitled "Interrelation of Experimental Exposure and Ambient Air Quality
Data for Comparison of Ozone Exposure Indices and Estimating
Agricultural Losses." In this study, crop yield data from 12 National
Crop loss Assessment Network (NdAN) studies were regressed against
various exposure indices. While no single exposure index provided the
best fit every time, a near optimal overall fit could be produced by
cumulating hourly concentrations over time and placing greater weight on
concentrations of 0.06 ppm or higher. The SUM06 index cumulates all
concentrations greater than 0.06 ppm for the three highest consecutive
months.
Mean SUM06 values were determined using 1982 through 1987 monitoring
data from agricultural or forest sites. Region V ranges from 0-10 parts
per billion (ppb) in Minnesota, the Northern Peninsula of Michigan and
part of Wisconsin, to greater than 35 ppb in southern Illinois and Ohio.
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ECOLOGICAL RISK CTARACTERIZATION
Data presented in a report from the staff at Corvallis, Oregon was used
to predict the impact of current ozone exposure on crop yield, for those
crops which are most susceptible to ozone, and which are grown in
significant quantities in Region V. Monitored ambient ozone
concentrations (SUM06) were combined with composite predicted relative
yield loss functions to estimate soybean and wheat loss at specific
geographic sites. Using these point estimates, crop losses were
projected for all areas where the crop is cultivated. Die area-weighted
yield loss was determined to be approximately 7 percent and 12 percent
for soybean and wheat, respectively. In 1989, the states of Region V
collectively planted 24.1 million acres of soybean and 7.6 million acres
of wheat. This corresponds to approximately 888,760 thousand bushels of
soybean and 365,414 thousand bushels of wheat. Applying the area-
weighted yield loss figures to 1989 agricultural data results in an
estimated loss of 66,900 thousand bushels and 49,830 thousand bushels of
soybean and wheat, respectively, in Region V.
WELFARE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
To be completed by contractor
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References
Hays, S.R., H.M. Richmond, A.S. Rosenbaum, T.S. Wallsten, R.G. Whitfield, and
R.L. Winkler. Chronic lung Irriury Risk Assessment for Ozone. June
1990.
Tingey, David T., Andrew A. Herstrom, William E. Hogsett, and E. Henry lee.
United States Environmental Protection Agency/ NSI Technology. Impact
of Current Levels of Ozone on Crop Production In Region 5. June 1990.
United States Department of Agriculture. Crop Production; 1989 Summary.
National Agricultural Statistics Service. January 1990.
United States Environmental Protection Agency. Unfinished Business: A
CemmaTative Ass^^sment of Environmental Problems. Office of Policy
Analysis and Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation. February 1987.
United States Environmental Protection Agency. Review of the National Ambient
AIT Qnality Standards for Ozone: Asspgpment of Scientific and Technical
Information: OAOPS Staff Paper. Air Management Division, Office of Air
Quality Planning and Standards. June 1989.
United States Environmental Protection Agency, Region X.
Project. June 1988.
Comparative Risk
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DRAFT
16. AIRBORNE LEAD
PROBLEM AREA DEFINITION AMD DESCRIPTION
Air emissions of lead result from many industrial and chemical
processes. This problem area includes direct exposure to airborne lead.
It does not include exposure to lead from drinking water delivery
systems, or lead found in homes and buildings from leaded paint.
HUMAN TreaT/m RISK ASSESSMENT
TOXEdTY ASSESSMENT
Primary -National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) were established
to define levels of air quality which are necessary to protect public
health, with an adequate margin of safety. The NAAQS for lead is 1.5
maximum arithmetic mean averaged over a calendar quarter.
Children six years old or younger are generally considered to be most
vulnerable to the adverse health effects of lead. Some types of
physical and behavioral effects have been observed at lower blood levels
in children than adults and the developing brain of a child appears to
be more susceptible. In addition, there is a greater opportunity for
children to be exposed to certain lead sources through normal play
activities and by putting foreign substances into their mouths. When a
child is exposed to lead, it is likely that more will be absorbed due to
a higher incidence of nutritional problems among children, which enhance
lead adsorption. Pregnant women are also considered to be at high risk,
primarily due to the potential for exposing the fetus.
The toxic effects of lead at high levels are firmly established, and
growing evidence suggests that lower levels also may pose serious risk
to human health. At severely elevated levels of lead in blood, children
have been found to experience life-threatening brain damage, persisting
mental retardation, severe anemia, kidney disorders, anorexia, abdominal
pain, and vomiting. At slightly lower levels significant nerve
dysfunctions in the body, an impaired ability to formulate concepts,
lower IQ, and altered behavior were found. Even at relatively low blood
lead levels interference in the manufacture of heme has been detected.
Heme is an important element in the energy metabolism of cells, the
liver enzymes that detoxify chemicals, and the formation of hemoglobin
(the major constituent of red blood cells which carry oxygen throughout
the body) . Adults with elevated blood lead levels may experience a wide
range of effects including increased blood pressure, headaches,
irritability, abdomina pain, functional changes in the peripheral
nervous system, frank anemia, coma, and severe brain damage. Adverse
health effects from elevated levels of lead in blood range from mental
retardation and permanent nerve damage to behavior disorders
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EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT
Lead gasoline additives, nonferrous smelters, and battery plants are the
most significant contributors to atmospheric lead emissions.
Transportation sources in 1988 contributed 34 percent of the annual
emissions. This contribution has decreased substantially from
approximately 83 percent in 1975, due to regulations issued in the early
1070s which required gradual reduction of the lead content in all
gasoline. The annual gasoline pool has changed dramatically since the
mid-1970s, when about 100 billion gallons of leaded gasoline contained
over 2 grams of lead per gallon. Today only about 10 billion gallons of
leaded gasoline contain 0.09 grams per gallon. In addition, the states
of Region V use a smaller percentage of leaded gasoline than many
states, particularly those in the western half of the country.
Due to the-diminishing leaded gasoline problem, point sources, primarily
nonferrous smelters, will be the focus of Region V's assessment.
Reviewing 1987 through 1990 data, four areas in Region V recorded
monitored violation of the NAAQS for lead.
HUMAN BFfrjfPH RISK CHARACTERIZATION
All of the four monitors registering violations of the lead standard in
Region V were located in cities. The city population was therefore
considered to be a reasonable representation of the number of people at
risk of experiencing adverse health effects due to exposure to airborne
lead. Using 1980 population data, the total number of people considered
to be at risk in Region V is 139,494.
It should be noted that the monitoring network for lead is somewhat
limited, and we are not confident that all violations of the NAAQS for
lead are being monitored. Therefore, although it is fairly certain that
at least 139,494 people in Region V are exposed to unhealthful levels of
lead, this number is likely to underestimate the risk.
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References
United States Environmental Protection Agency. National &JT Quality and
Emissions Trends Report. 1988. Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards. March 1990. EPA Publication No. EPA-450/4-90-022.
United States Environmental Protection Agency- Unfinished Business: A
Comparative Assessment of Environmental Problems. Office of Policy
Analysis and Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation. February 1987.
United States Environmental Protection Agency, Region X. Camparative Risk
Project. June 1988.
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DRAFT
17. PARTICULATE MATTER
PROBLEM AREA DEFINITION AND DESCRIPTION
Airborne particulate matter smaller than 10 microns (FM^) causes
adverse health, welfare, and ecological effects. Major sources include
a variety of industrial and commercial processes, motor vehicles, wind
blown dust, and residential heating.
HUMAN TTFTyrnff RISK ASSESSMENT
TOXICTTY ASSESSMENT
Primary National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) were established
to define levels of air quality which are necessary to protect public
health, with an adequate margin of safety. The NAAQS for EM,0 are 150
Mg/m3, 24-hour average concentration and 50 MQ/n3/ annual arithmetic
mean. The standard is violated if either expected value is greater than
one.
Particulate matter, especially the more respirable particles smaller
than 10 microns nominal diameter, causes a variety of respiratory
problems. These effects include increased incidence of respiratory
disease, especially in children; aggravation of existing respiratory
diseases, particularly bronchitis; reduced resistance to infection;
increased respiratory symptoms; and reductions in lung function. The
ultimate effect, according to epidemiological studies, is premature
mortality, particularly in elderly and ill persons. Particulate matter
also causes various lesser effects such as irritation of the eyes and
throat.
EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT
The following are significant sources of HLp in Region V: /Steel nulls, (-^
including coke batteries, blast furnaces, sinter plants, steel furnaces,
coke byproduct plants, and slag handling; industrial open dust sources,
including unpaved roads, paved roads, and storage piles; iron and
aluminum foundries; asphalt and asphaltic concrete plants; portland
cement plants; lime plants; construction materials plants, particularly
conveyors, quarrying, and other materials handling; construction and
demolition; grain terminals, including loading and unloading,
particularly ship loading and terminal loading; landfills; brick kilns;
boilers; and surface mining.
At the time the NAAQS for FM,0 were promulgated, the United States
Environmental Protection Agency made judgments of the likelihood that
the standards would be violated in each area of the country. Areas with
greater than 95 percent probability of violating the NAAQS were
generally classified as Group I. Areas with less than 95 percent but
greater than 20 percent probability of violating the NAAQS were
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generally classified as Group II. Areas with less than 20 percent
probability of violating the NAAQS were classified as Group III. Region
V has 8 areas classified as Group I and 40 areas classified as Group II.
Since the time the NAAQS were promulgated, substantially more PM,0
monitoring data have became available. These monitoring data formed the
basis of the FM,0 exposure assessment and human health risk
characterization.
In Region V, the areas with the highest PM,0 concentrations are also
among the most populated areas in the Region. In general, the highest
concentrations are found in heavy industrial areas, which are found in
highly urbanized areas. Therefore, particulate matter causes more
adverse human health impacts than other more evenly distributed (or more
rural oriented) environmental contaminants.
By associating monitored PM,0 concentrations with population, it is
estimated that 2.8 million people in Region V live in areas with PM,0
concentrations in excess of the NAAQS. It is also estimated that over
3.5 million people in Region V are exposed to annual average
concentrations in excess of 38
HUMAN HEALTH RISK CHARACTERIZATION
To characterize health effects resulting from exposure to PM^, Region V
is using a method developed by RCG/Hagler, Baily Inc. under contract to
EPA. This method uses the following equations to calculate the annual
number of premature deaths and the annual number of restricted activity
days.
365 J
Annual Deaths = Z S (1.6 X 10'8) (PM,^ - 150) (POPp
d=l j=l
where, d = day of the year
j = location of monitoring site
POP. = exposed population at monitoring site j
PM^j = measured particulate concentration (Aig/m3)
on day d at location j (provided it
exceeds 150)
Annual Restricted J
Activity Days = S (0.046) (PM,0j - 38) (POPj)
j=l
where, j = location of monitoring site
POPj - exposed population at monitoring site j
PM,0j. = measured annual average particulate
concentration 0/g/m3) at location j
(provided it exceeds 38)
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Reviewing 1987 through 1989 monitoring data along with 1980 census data
(usually township population), it was estimated that exposure to EM^ in
Region V results in 25 annual deaths and over 2.3 million annual
restricted activity days.
ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
Particulate matter has similar effects on animal populations as it does
on the human population. However, studies on wildlife cannot readily be
performed either through epidemiological or laboratory approaches.
Effects of particulate matter on plant life have also not been
adequately studied. Therefore, we were unable to characterize
ecological effects of particulate matter.
WELFARE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
To be completed by contractor
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References
United States Environmental Protection Agency. Unfinished Business: A
Comparative Ass^^sment of Enviioiimentq] Problems. Office of Policy
Analysis and Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation. February 1987.
United States Environmental Protection Agency, Region X. Comparative Risk
Project. June 1988.
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DRAFT
18. HAZARDOUS/TOXIC AIR POLLUTANTS
PROBLEM AREA DEFINITION AND DESCRIPTION
This problem area covers outdoor exposure to airborne hazardous air
pollutants from routine or continuous emissions from point and non-point
sources. Pollutants include asbestos, various toxic metals (e.g.,
chromium, beryllium), organic gases (benzene, chlorinated solvents),
polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs, such as benzo(a)pyrene,primarily
in particulate form), gasoline vapors, incomplete combustion products,
airborne pathogens, cooling towers, and a variety of other volatile
organic chemicals and toxics. This problem area also covers exposure
through both inhalation and air deposition of these pollutants to land
areas. Runoff of deposited pollutants to surface waters is addressed in
the Non-point Sources section. Major sources of these pollutants
include large industrial facilities, motor vehicles, chemical plants,
commercial solvent users, and combustion sources. This category
excludes, to the extent possible, risks from pesticides, airborne lead,
radioactive substances, chloroflourocarbons, emissions from waste
treatment, storage and disposal facilities, storage tanks, and indoor
air toxicants.
Data presented in the Office of Air Quality, Planning and Standards'
"Cancer Risk from Outdoor Exposure to Air Toxics" (September 1989) was
used in this report to determine cancer risk in Region V. The study was
also based on 'information contained in 10 area specific or national air
quality based risk-related reports on air toxics, 14 EPA source category
and pollutant specific studies, risk assessments performed for the
development of National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants,
and source specific risk data contained in the EPA Air Toxic Exposure
and Risk Information System data base. National data was apportioned to
the region by population using the following equation:
Region V Data = National Data
Population of Region V
Population of Nation
As will be discussed below, this assumption is considered to be
reasonable.
HUMAN ffKfiT-T'H RISK ASSESSMENT
TOXIdTY ASSESSMENT
The carcinogens selected for evaluation include acrylonitrile, arsenic,
asbestos, benzene, 1,3-butadiene, cadmium, carbon tetrachloride,
chloroform, chromium (hexavalent) , coke oven emissions, dioxin, ethylene
dibromide, ethylene dichloride, ethylene oxide, formaldehyde, gasoline
vapors, hemchlorobutadiene, hydrazine, methylene chloride,
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perchloroethylene, products of incomplete cxnibustion, trichloroethylene,
vinyl chloride and, vinylidene chloride.
The cancer rates presented in the studies used in the national report
were updated, as necessary, based on unit risk factors used by EPA.
Although the pollutants studied varied from proven human carcinogen to
probable human carcinogen to possible human carcinogen, all were treated
in the analyses as carcinogens.
Pollutants selected for evaluation of non-cancer effects include
acetaldehyde, acrolein, arsenic, benzene, beryllium, carbon disulfide,
carbon tetrachloride, chloroform, ethylene oxide, formaldehyde, hydrogen
sulfide, methyl ethyl ketone, methyl methacrylate, methyl isocyanate,
nitrobenzene, perchloroethylene, phenol, phthalic anhydride, styrene,
tetramethyl lead, toluene diisocyanate, and vinyl chloride.
Exposure to airborne pollutants can result in non-cancer health effects
ranging from subtle biochemical, physiological, or pathological effects
to death. Various organ systems may be affected including the
pulmonary, nervous, gastrointestinal, cardiovascular, and hematopoietic
systems. In addition, hepatic, renal, reproductive, and developmental
toxicity have been observed.
In the national study, cancer risk estimates were derived giving equal
consideration to measured and modeled data, provided that one estimate
was not clearly preferable. Cancer rates for a pollutant and source
category were extrapolated to nationwide estimates based on the
geographic scope of each study examined. Direct extrapolation to total
nationwide estimates was possible for most pollutants due to their
inclusion in at least one study of nationwide scope. In instances where
a pollutant was included only in a study of limited geographical scope,
the concentration of the pollutant/source category in the area studied
relative to the national concentration was considered. This information
was then utilized to extrapolate nationwide estimates.
It is specifically noted that Region V conducted a risk assessment in
Southeast Chicago for a variety of air toxicants. Those results were
not independently utilized, however, since they were incorporated in the
national study which was used as the basis to estimate population risks
for this problem area.
The national population utilized is 243,400,000. The population assumed
in this analysis for Region V is 46,150,000 or, approximately 19% of the
national population. Further, information from the Toxics Release
Inventory indicates that Region V emits about 556,000,000 pounds of air
toxics per year while approximately 2,427,570,100 pounds per year are
emitted nationally. This corresponds to a regional contribution of
approximately 23 percent. Therefore, while this comparison is
reasonably similar, the use of population will provide a more
conservative estimate.
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HUMAN HEALTH RISK CHARACTERIZATION
Cancer Risk
In the studies used in "Cancer Risk from Outdoor Exposure to Air
Toxics", aggregate maximum lifetime individual risks exceeding 10'4 were
reported in almost every case. Risks of 10"3 or greater from individual
pollutants were reported adjacent to various types of sources. Average
lifetime individual risks in urban areas from exposure to many
pollutants were generally between 10~4 and 10"5 but ranged form 10"3 and
10~6. These levels were the result of combined exposure to mobile and
stationary sources.
In the national study, estimates of annual cancer incidence were
initially derived by estimating the annual cancer cases per million
population for each pollutant source category combination reported in
the data sources. These estimates were then modified as necessary to
reflect updated unit risk and emission factors. Total nationwide annual
incidence were then estimated by summing across all pollutant/source
categories.
The procedure outlined above results in an estimate of 1,577 to 2,540
cancer cases per year, nationally, caused by exposure to the pollutants
listed previously. With Region V comprising approximately 19 percent of
the Nation's population, apportioning national data to the region by
population results in a projection of 299 to 482 cancer cases per year
in Region V. (It is noted that these national numbers are different
than those presented in the national report since the risks due to waste
treatment storage and disposal facilities, radionuclides, and radon have
been subtracted. This is consistent with the problem area definition
and description.)
With respect to uncertainty, it should be noted that cancer unit risk
values used in this study are based on many assumptions and are
therefore somewhat uncertain. Further, the fraction of the total risk
attributable to pollutants and source categories not covered in the
study is unknown. Nevertheless, the study is valuable as a reasonable
indication of the magnitude of potential cancer risk caused by this
specific group of pollutants and is therefore, in general, considered to
be moderately to highly certain.
Non-Cancer Risk
Non-cancer risks from exposure to toxic pollutants that are routinely
emitted to the air by industrial or commercial sources are being
evaluated by the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards in a Broad
Screening and Urban County Study. Based on analysis of the preliminary
data available from the study, it is reasonable to conclude that
environmental acute and chronic exposures to toxic air pollutants have
the potential to adversely impact public health, although the exact
magnitude of the increased risks identified in this project is unclear.
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It is expected that short-term intermittent releases may be expected to
effect greater numbers of individuals than long-term emissions.
Specifically, the preliminary results of the Broad Screening portion of
the study indicate that: 1) approximately 48 percent of the chemicals
studied exceeded the health reference levels for chronic exposures; 2)
long-term (annual) exposures were estimated above the Lowest Observed
Effect Level (LOEL) for 3-5 percent of the chemicals studied; 3) more
frequently, 58 percent of exposures exceeded health reference levels for
short term (24-hour) exposures; and 4) in hundreds of U.S. cities,
exposure to multiple pollutants was of concern, with concentrations in
260 cities exceeding the hazard index. The preliminary results of the
Urban County portion of the study indicate that: 1) using long-term
modeling of both average and maximum emissions, a substantial number of
facilities were estimated to cause exceedances of health levels, with 31
percent of the 131 facilities exceeding chronic health effect levels for
9 chemicals; 2) using short-term modeling, more pollutants and
facilities were associated with exceedances of IDELs with and without
uncertainty factors applied, with 75 percent of the 131 facilities
exceeding acute health effect levels for 42 chemicals; and 3) for
chemicals of concern, substantial numbers of facilities were associated
with exceedances of the health reference level, and a small percentage
of facilities emitted pollutants in quantities exceeding the IDELs.
It is acknowledged that there is some uncertainty associated with
characterizing non-cancer health risks at exposures greater than the
reference dose and less than the LOEL. Nevertheless, using the Broad
Screening portion of the study, it is estimated that 50 million people
and 38 million people nationally are exposed to levels of pollutants
which are greater than health reference levels for acute effects and
chronic effects respectively. Providing that regional characteristics
are similar to national characteristics, an estimate of Region V values
can be determined using population as an indicator. National data was
therefore apportioned to the region by population resulting in an
estimate of 9.5 million people and 7.2 million people in Region V
exposed to levels of pollutants which are greater than health reference
levels for acute effects and chronic effects respectively.
Regarding uncertainty, data was insufficient to predict ambient
concentrations of most air pollutants. In addition, data pertaining to
various non-cancer endpoints for many pollutants was minimal. Further,
inhalation studies are scarce. The degree of certainty associated with
this study is therefore considered to be low to moderate.
ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
Great Lakes ecosystem effects as a result of atmospheric emissions of
air toxicants are discussed in the "Non-point Source Discharges to
Oceans, Tate>g and Rivers" problem area. However, it is specifically
noted that atmospheric deposition is generally believed to be the major
pathway for many toxicants reaching the great lakes, particularly for
the upper lakes which are more isolated from centers of population and
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industry. Percentages of total inputs of chemical contaminants to Lake
Superior attributable to atmospheric deposition, for example, have been
estimated as follows: 90% of FCBs, 97% of EOT, 96% of BaP, and 97% of
lead. Observed effects in the ecosystem as a result of toxicants in the
lakes have included reproductive difficulties in birds, crossed bills
and club feet in birds, and tumors in fish and turtles.
DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
To be completed by contractor
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References
Arimoto Richard. Ihe Atmospheric Deposition of Chemical Contaminants to the
Great Lakes. 11 August 1987.
United States Environmental Protection Agency. Cancer Risk from Outdoor
Exposure to AIT- Toxics; External Review Draft. Office of AIT- Quality
Planning and Standards. September 1989.
United States Environmental Protection Agency. Toxic: Air Pollutants and
Noncancer Health Risks: Sunnrery of Screernncr Study: External Review
Draft. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. May 1989.
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DRAFT
19. INDOOR AIR POLLUTANTS OTHER THAN RADON
PROBLEM AREA DEFINITION AND DESCRIPTION
This category applies to exposure to accumulated indoor air pollutants,
except radon, primarily from sources inside buildings and homes. These
sources include gas ranges, foam insulation, pesticides, tobacco smoke,
cleaning solvents, and paints. The pollutants include tobacco smoke,
asbestos, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, pesticides, and numerous
volatile organic chemicals such as benzene and formaldehyde.
Occupational exposures are included, as is inhalation of contaminants
volatilized from drinking water.
Data obtained in national studies which were used in the Office of
Policy, Planning and Evaluation's "Unfinished Business: A Comparative
Assessment of Environmental Problems" and the Office of Air and
Radiation's "Report to Congress on Indoor Air Quality, Volume II:
Assessment and Control of Indoor Air Pollution" was primarily used in
this report to calculate risks in Region V. National data was
apportioned to the region by population using the following equation:
Region V Data = National Data
Population of Region V
Population of Nation
As will be discussed below, this assumption is considered to be
reasonable.
HUMAN TrafrT-T*T RISK ASSESSMENT
TOXEdTY ASSESSMENT
The carcinogens selected for evaluation include environmental tobacco
smoke; the following volatile organic chemicals: benzene, para-
dichlorobenzene, chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, tetrachloroethylene,
and trichloroethylene; formaldehyde; asbestos; and pesticides.
Considerable epidemiologic data is available which associates smoking
with cancers of the lung, larynx, oral cavity, esophagus, bladder,
pancreas, and kidney. In addition, epidemiologic studies have
established a clear link between exposure to environmental tobacco smoke
(passive smoking) and lung cancer. (This conclusion is supported by the
1986 Surgeon General's Report and a 1986 report of the National Academy
of Sciences.) These studies have also indicated increases in brain
tumors and hematopoietic cancers.
With respect to indoor exposures to volatile organic pollutants, L.A.
Wallace performed a study which estimated the risk to the national
population associated with exposure to six pollutants: benzene, para-
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dichlorobenzene, chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, tetrachloroethylene,
and trichloroethylene. Potency estimates used in this study were
developed by EPA's Carcinogen Assessment Group.
Formaldehyde was determined to cause cancer. The upper-bound unit risk
based on a lifetime exposure to 1.0 /ug/m3 is estimated by the Office of
Pesticides and Toxic Substances to be 1.3 x 10"5.
Asbestos is a known carcinogen. Exposure to asbestos, particularly at
the high levels experienced in occupational settings, has been
associated with increased cases of lung cancer, mesothelioroa, and
gastrointestinal cancer. In addition, cigarette smoking and exposure to
asbestos have a strong synergistic interaction in the development of
lung cancer. While exposure to ashpistns increases the lung cancer rate
in non-smokers by approximately a factor of 5, it increases the lung
cancer rate in smokers by roughly a factor of 50. Mthough asbestos is
also related to Asbestos is, a chronic (non-cancerous) disease involving
fibrosis of the lung and pleural tissues, these effects will not be
studied.
Pollutants selected for evaluation of non-cancer effects include
environmental tobacco smoke, pesticides, carbon monoxide, formaldehyde,
nitrogen dioxide, and volatile organic compounds. Non-cancer effects
from environmental tobacco smoke include cardiovascular effects,
increased susceptibility to infectious disftasps in children, chronic and
acute pulmonary effects in children, mucous membrane irritation, and
allergic response. Pesticides are known to affect the nervous system,
liver, and reproductive system as well as to produce an allergic
response. Carbon monoxide can impa-iy breathing, vision, alertness and
mental function, aggravate existing conditions such as angina, and,
under acute conditions, cause nausea, vomiting, dizziness,
unconsciousness, and death. Non-cancer health effects of the
formaldehyde, nitrogen dioxide and volatile organic conpounds are noted
in Table I.
RE
Typically, nearly 90 percent of a person's time is spent indoors. In
addition, indoor concentrations of many pollutants are significantly
higher than outdoor concentrations. Consequently, for most individuals,
indoor exposure to air pollutants is significantly greater than outdoor
exposure.
There are approximately 19 million housing units in Region V, with many
new housing units built each year. The Department of Energy estimates
that air exchange rates in new construction are typically 50 percent
lower than the national average. Given this trend in air exchange
rates, the concentration of indoor pollutants will double if emission
rates remain unchanged.
Sources of indoor pollutants vary. Exposure to environmental tobacco
smoke is a result of cigarettes, cigars, and pipes.
251
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Emissions of volatile organic cxatpounds from oven cleaners and hair
sprays, arts and crafts materials and home workshops, solvents from
cleaning and waxing agents, and paints and refinishing compounds, and
volatilization from drinking water may increase exposure to a variety of
air toxics. The Environmental Protection Agency's Total Exposure
Assessment Methodology study has found such carcinogens as benzene,
ethylbenzene, trichloroethane, trichloroethylene, tetrachloroethylene,
carbon tetrachloride, chloroform, and meta- and para-dichlorobenzenes to
be commonly present in indoor air.
Since extensive measurements do not exist for the wide range of
potential indoor carcinogens, modeling on the basis of limited
measurements is at present the only method for assessing the cancer risk
of many pollutants. As noted previously in this Problem Area section,
nationally developed procedures were utilized. Specifically, the
lifetime risk of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and volatile
organic chemicals were estimated from an equation which utilizes a dose-
response function for the pollutant, the amount of the pollutant
inhaled, and the exposure lifetime in years.
A study of environmental tobacco smoke was performed by J. L. Repace and
A. H. Icwrey which uses a phenomenological model to calculate the
potency estimate. This model predicts lung cancer deaths per person-
years per milligram of tobacco tar inhaled per day.
Urea-formaldehyde foam insulation, which came into widespread use in the
late 1970's, emits formaldehyde. Consequently, many individuals have
been exposed to significant indoor concentrations. The office of Air
and Radiation's "Report to Congress on Indoor Air Quality, Volume II:
Assessment and Control of Indoor Air Pollution" indicates that 9,000,000
mobile home residents nationally are exposed to concentrations ranging
from 0.03 to 8 ppm. Apportioning this data to the region by population
results in a projection of 1,706,450 mobile home residents in Region V
exposed to this concentration range.
Asbestos fibers are found primarily in thermal insulation and surfacing
materials such as those sprayed on or trolled on ceilings and
fireproof ing on structural members. Disturbance of these materials can
cause the asbestos fibers to become airborne. The fibers can then be
inhaled by the occupants of the building. In Region V, it is estimated
that there are 739,800 commercial and public buildings and schools, of
which approximately 151,200 contain friable asbestos-containing material
(FACM), 105,800 contain damaged FACM, and 66,400 contain significantly
damaged FACM.
Using a census-derived estimate of 30 occupants per commercial and
public building, it is estimated that 4,378,000 people occupy commercial
and public buildings containing FACM. Using QED's School Guide 1989-
1990, it was estimated that the average occupancy of a school building
is 440 people. This results in a projection of approximately 3,354,000
people occupying school buildings containing FACM. Thus the total
number of people in Region V occupying buildings containing FACM is
252
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approximately 7,732,000. Similar calculations result in a projection of
5,362,000 occupants in buildings with damaged FACM and 3,333,000
occupants in buildings with significantly damaged FACM.
Both carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide are emitted from combustion
appliances.
While national studies were utilized to estimate human health impacts of
indoor air pollutants, the studies were directly applied to Region V in
this problem area. Providing that Regional characteristics are similar
to national characteristics, a valid estimate of regional values can be
determined using population as an indicator. National data was
therefore apportioned to Region V based on population. While it is
believed that the population of Region V may spend slightly more time
indoors, on an annual basis, compared with the national average, the
effect of this was not considered in the following analysis. The
overall effect of this would suggest that the following risk estimates
for Region V would be slightly underestimated.
The population assumed in this analysis for Region V is 46,150,000. The
national population utilized is 243,400,000.
HEALTH RISK CHARACTERIZATION
Cancer Risk
The phenomenological model of Repace and Lowery concludes that domestic
exposure to environmental tobacco smoke is likely to increase the risk
of lung cancer by 26%. Nationally, based on 1988 population data, the
total number of lung cancer deaths due to domestic and work place
exposure was estimated by Repace and Lowery to be 6,724 per year.
Apportioning this data to the region by population results in a
projection of 1,275 lung cancer deaths per year in Region V. It is
noted that the Science Advisory Board is expected to be making
conclusions in the fall of 1990 regarding a report prepared by the
United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) with respect to
the effects of environmental tobacco smoke. Preliminary estimates
indicate a range of impacts which are approximately inclusive of the
lung cancer deaths per year noted above, with a low value of 1,800, a
high value of 6,100, and a single value of 3,800. Prorated to Region V,
a single value of 720 lung cancer deaths per year is estimated.
To estimate uncertainty, Repace and Lowery used an exposure-response
relation to compare their results with those of other studies. Repace
and Lowery calculated the expected risk ratio and risk rate for a 1981
American Cancer Society group studied by Garfinkel, the odds ratio in a
1985 case-control study by Garfinkel, and the risk ratio for domestic
passive smoking derived from the 13 epidemiological studies analyzed by
the National Research Council. In every case, the calculations agreed
with observational results to within 5 percent. Further, the estimates
currently being reviewed by the Science Advisory board are approximately
within the range of these studies. The findings of the impacts of
253
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environmental tobacco smoke referenced above are therefore considered to
be highly certain.
L.A. Wallace's study of six volatile organic pollutants (benzene, para-
dichlorobenzene, chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, tetrachloroethylene,
and trichloroethylene) was based on monitoring results from 600 homes in
four states. The study concluded that, nationally, 1,240 deaths per
year could be attributed to these pollutants. Apportioning this data to
the region by population results in a projection of 235 deaths per year
in Region V. Because the study only considers domestic exposure and not
the combination of domestic and workplace exposure, this number may be
underestimated.
The expected number of cancer cases per year due to formaldehyde was
estimated to be 326. This number was calculated assuming an average
concentration of 1030 Mg/m3 (approximately 0.8 ppm) and a 70 year
lifetime.
Insert assumptions used ty Esn in 40^07^1 ni ng nnm>var of fj^r^-p cases/ as
well as uncertainty discussion. It is estimated that, in Region V,
1,025 cancer cases annually result from exposure to airborne asbestos.
Risk due to pesticide exposure was estimated using the "Nonoccupational
Exposure Study." While application of many pesticides has been severely
restricted or canceled, one cancer case per year is estimated in Region
V due to pesticide exposure.
Non-Cancer Risk
A. J. Wells performed a study of adult mortality resulting from passive
smoking. In this stud, , he made preliminary estimates of the number of
fatalities due to heart disease and enphysema based on epidemiological
studies evaluating the relative risk resulting from exposure to
environmental tobacco smoke. Wells estimated that, nationally, 32,000
deaths and 170 deaths were due to heart HisAaso and emphysema
respectively. This corresponds to 6,067 deaths and 32 deaths due to
heart disease and emphysema respectively in Region V.
The numbers presented by Wells are believed to be reasonable. Among
approximately 33 million smokers, there were 120,000 active smoking-
attributable heart disease deaths in 1985. By comparison, Wells
estimates 32,000 passive smoking-attributable heart disease deaths in
roughly 72 million nonsmokers. This estimate does not seem excessive
considering that tobacco smoke is known to be one of three major risk
factors for heart disease death, as well as synergistic with the other
two factors, hypertension and elevated serum cholesterol, which are also
common in nonsmokers. In general, Wells1 estimate is considered to be
moderately certain.
With respect to carbon monoxide, using data provided by the Consumer
Products Safety Commission, 57 annual deaths due to carbon monoxide are
estimated to be the result of faulty consumer appliances in Region V.
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The !lNonoccupational Exposure Study" concluded that non-cancer risks due
to pesticide exposure were generally low. Finally, health effects and
estimates of population exposed to nitrogen dioxide, formaldehyde and
volatile organic compounds are presented in Table I.
ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
No analysis was conducted because ecosystem effects are not anticipated.
WELFARE DAMAGE
To be completed by contractor
255
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Table I. Non-Cancer Health Effects
Source/Chemical
Health Effects
Estimated No. Persons at Risk
Formaldehyde
Nitrogen
Dioxide
Volatile
Organic
Compounds
-Sensory irritation
-Pulmonary irritation
-Pulmonary edema
-Decreased pulmonary
function
-Increased infection
(children are
more susceptible)
-Possible increased
bronchial
reactivity
in asthmatics
-Sensory irritation
-Headaches
-Hepatotoxic effects
-Neurotoxic effects
-1,706,450 in mobile homes
-3,677,291-4,202,618 in energy
efficient residences
-workplace/public building
exposure during remodeling
or initial occupancy
unknown
-23,000,000 in homes with gas
cooking utilities
-1,846,000 asthmatics with
increased risk or severity
if exposed
-"tight buildings" including
an unknown percentage of
workplace/public buildings
and remodeled residences
(1/5 to 1/3 of buildings in
U.S. are estimated to have
areas where more that 20%
of employees suffer acute
discomfort
256
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References
United States Environmental Protection Agency. Unfinished Business: A
Comparative Assessment of Environmental Problems. Office of Policy
Analysis and Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation. February 1987.
EPA Study of
A Report to Congress.
United States Environmental Protection Agency.
Containing Materials in Public Buildings
February 1988.
United States Environmental Protection Agency. Indoor ATT Pollution: The
Magnitude and Anatomy of Problems and Solutions: A Scoping Study:
Draft Report. Prepared by GAMBIT Technologies Inc. and Versar Inc. for
Office of Program Development, Office of Air and Radiation Programs. 17
August 1987.
United States Environmental Protection Agency. Report to Congress on Indoor
AIT Quality. Volume II; Assessment and Con*"rol of Indoor AIT* Pollution.
Office of Air and Radiation. August 1989. EPA Publication No.
EPA/400/1-89/001C.
United States Environmental Protection Agency. Nonoccupational Pesticide
Exposure Study (NOPES). Atmospheric Research and Ejqjosure Assessment
Laboratory, Research Triangle Park. January 1990. EPA Publication No.
EPA/600/3-90/003.
United States Environmental Protection Agency, Region X. Comparative Risk
Project. June 1988.
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DRAFT
i
20. INDOOR RADON
PROBLEM AREA DEFINITION AND DESCRIPTION
Radon is a radioactive gas produced by the decay of radium, which
occurs naturally in almost all soil and rock. Health risks occur
when radon migrates into buildings through foundation cracks or
other openings such as sumps, utility ports, or uncovered crawl
spaces. Radon can also enter the atmosphere of a building when it
volatilizes from the drinking water supply.
As radon gas undergoes radioactive decay in a building's
atmosphere, it produces a series of short-lived radioactive decay
products. When inhaled, some of these decay products are
deposited in the air passages of the respiratory system and emit
alpha particles which can damage tissue of the bronchial
epithelium and lead to lung cancer.
Radon is a known human carcinogen to which the entire population
of the nation is exposed to some extent. This problem area will
evaluate the health impacts of exposure to indoor radon on the
population of the region.
HUMAN Traar/rtT RISK ASSESSMENT
TOXICTTY ASSESSMENT
Radon is classified as a Group A human carcinogen. Studies of
laboratory animals and human epidemiological studies have produced
well documented evidence that exposure to radon decay products
causes lung cancer. USEPA has relied heavily on the results of
epidemiological studies of underground miners in developing its
radon risk models. These epidemiological studies, despite widely
varying exposure conditions, have demonstrated remarkably
consistent dose-response relationships. Excess relative risk
calculation derived from five major studies of underground miners
show a range of 1.1 percent to 3.6 percent increase in lung
cancer per Working Level Month (WIM) of radon exposure.
USEPA employs a relative risk model to project the number of lung
cancer deaths associated with exposure to indoor radon. The
Agency's model is derived from, and essentially averages, the
results of the relative risk models developed by International
Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP 50) and the National
Academy of Sciences (BFTR IV) as modified by recommendations from
USEPA's Science Advisory Board.
USEPA's relative risk model assumes that the incidence of excess
lung cancer associated with exposure to indoor radon is
proportional to the baseline incidence of lung cancer in the
population as a whole. This implies that the health impact of
radon is mutiplicative with other risk factors which cause lung
cancer (e.g. smoking) and that the incidence of lung cancer due to
indoor radon will vary with other population characteristics such
258
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DRAFT
as age, sex. and occupation. USEPA's current central estimate of
the lifetime rate of lung cancer deaths due to radon is 360
deaths/million person - WIM.
Radon may also be responsible for cancer other than lung cancer.
A recent epidemiological study conducted by Hershaw et. al. showed
a significant correlation between indoor radon concentrations and
the incidence of myeloid leukemia, melanoma, cancer of kidney, and
certain childhood cancer. Ihe study suggests that 13-25 percent
of all myeloid leukemia cases may be attributable to radon
exposure.
EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT
USEPA estimates the average indoor radon exposure level in the
United States to be 0.25 WIM/year. This is equivalent to an
annual average indoor radon concentration of 1.3 pCi/L, assuming
75 percent residential occupancy time and a 50 percent equilibrium
factor between radon and its decay products. There is now
evidence available to suggest that average radon levels in Region
V exceed the national average value. USEPA, in conjunction with
the States of Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin,
has conducted random winter-time screening measurements of over
7000 homes. In addition, the State of Illinois Department of
Nuclear Safety had completed a random survey of radon screening
levels in over 2000 homes located in 47 Illinois counties. In
order to determine the average annual level of exposure in the
region, it is necessary to convert the basement or first floor
winter-time screening measurements obtained from the surveys to
housewide annual averages. This has been done using conversion
factors supplied by USEPA's Office of Radiation Programs that are
based on a population of more than 500 homes located in climate
zones similar to Region V's where both short term winter time
measurements and annual measurements were available. The ratios
of winter timpi screening measurements to annual averages used in
this analysis are 1.3 for homes without basements and 2.0 for
homes with basements. Applying these ratios to the results of the
random radon screening surveys for the six Region V States yields
the following annual average radon concentrations:
Annual Average
State Radon Concentration (pCi/L)
Illinois 2.4 pCi/L
Indiana 2.2
Michigan 1.1
Minnesota 2.5
Ohio 2.3
Wisconsin 1.7
Population weighted
Regionwide average 2.0 pCi/L
259
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L
DRAFT
(A discussion will be included here of the frequency distribution
of radon concentrations.)
HUMAN HFAT.TH RISK CHARACTERIZATION
CANCER RISK
An estimate of annual lung cancer deaths attributable to exposure
to indoor radon in Region V can be calculated by applying USEPA's
relative risk modeling approach to the exposure assessment
information presented above. The specific methodology employed
has been developed by USEPA's Office of Radiation Programs and
involves the application of the following equation:
! + _§_
X
Where: C^ is annual lung cancer deaths due to radon
Cf is the yearly State lung cancer deaths (all causes)
X is the State annual average radon level (in pCi/L)
Applying the equation yields the following results for each
Region V State and the Region as a whole.
Deaths
Illinois 1500
Indiana 630
Michigan 660
Minnesota 480
Ohio 1630
Wisconsin 520
Total Region 5420
(A discussion of confidence limits and uncertainty will be
added here as well as a frequency distribution of risks)
ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
No ecological risk assessment has been performed for indoor radon
because there are no documented ecological impacts.
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** •*
INDOOR AIR POLLUTANTS OTHER THAN RADON
DEFINITION AND DESCRIPTION
ASBESTOS IN COMMERCIAL AND PUBLIC BUILDINGS AND SCHOOLS
Asbestos may be defined as a group of naturally occurring minerals that
separate into fibers. There are six asbestos minerals that are used
commercially; Chrysotile, Amosite, Crocidolite, Anthophyllite Asbestos,
Tremolite Asbestos, and Actinolite Asbestos. Chrysotile and Amosite are the
most frequently found asbestos minerals in the asbestos-containing materials
found in commercial and public buildings and schools.
Several life-threatening diseases such as, lung cancer and mesothelioma and to
a lesser degree gastrointestinal cancer can be caused by exposure to airborne
asbestos fibers. Historically, these diseases have been experienced in
occupational settings of high levels of asbestos exposure. Since no safe
threshold level has ever been established for airborne asbestos fibers, the
effects of low level exposure to the occupants in commercial and public
buildings, as well as schools, can be estimated by extrapolation from
occupational exposure levels.
To analyze the degree of risk from asbestos exposure in public and commercial
buildings and schools we must understand not only the inherent health hazards
associated with asbestos, but also the likelihood that the public will be
exposed to asbestos in these buildings. This likelihood, in turn, depends on
the presence of airborne asbestos fibers and the tendency for asbestos fibers
to be released into the occupied areas.
Nationally there are approximately 3.7 million commercial and public buildings
and schools. Approximately 20% of these buildings contain friable asbestos-
containing material.
In Region V, using the number of commercial, public, and school buildings
along with the number of buildings which contain friable asbestos, it can be
estimated as to the number of building occupants who are at risk to the
exposure of airborne asbestos.
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HUMAN HEALTH RISK
TOXICITY ASSESSMENT
Asbestos is a known carcinogen. Exposure to the airborne asbestos fibers can
cause cancer diseases such as, lung cancer and mesothelioma which are the most
common cancers related to asbestos. Lung cancer has been associated with
exposure at occupational levels to all of the commercial asbestos types. It
is responsible for the greatest number of deaths from exposure to asbestos.
Mesothelioma, a rare cancer of the membrane that lines the chest and abdominal
cavities, has been strongly associated with exposure to asbestos (1). The
latency period for these cancer diseases, related to asbestos, can be from 20
to 40 years.
The data available on the incidence of these cancer diseases has been derived
from studies of high exposure levels experienced in occupational settings. A
study of 632 asbestos insulation workers, between 1943 and 1974, showed 200
cancer deaths as compared to 52.02 expected deaths based upon data provided by
the U.S. National Office of Vital Statistics (2). Such statistics are not yet
available for low level asbestos exposure in non-occupational settings such
as, commercial and public buildings and schools.
As is typically done for other carcinogens, health effects associated with low
level non-occupational exposure to airborne asbestos fibers in commercial and
public buildings and schools have been inferred by extrapolating data from
laboratory and occupational studies. However, we should be aware that the
validity of extrapolating from high level exposure to low level exposure has
never been demonstrated empirically. The fact remains, whether the exposure
level to asbestos fibers is high or low, the health risk is there.
Asbestos is also related to a non-cancerous disease known as Asbestosis.
Asbestosis is a chronic disease involving fibrosis of the lung and pleural
tissues. Asbestosis is mainly associated with high occupational exposure to
asbestos. Its cause is almost non-existent in non-occupational settings, such
as, commercial and public buildings and schools.
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EXPOSUR^ ASSESSMENT
The concern here is to focus on the asbestos fiber as an indoor air pollutant
in commercial and public buildings and schools. Since a safe threshold level
for exposure to airborne asbestos fibers has not been established, any level
of exposure is hazardous. It should be reiterated that the asbestos fiber is
hazardous only when it becomes airborne.
In the commercial and public buildings and schools, asbestos fibers are
present in several kinds of asbestos-containing materials (ACM) classified as:
1. Surfacing ACM material
2. Thermal system insulation (TSI)
3 Miscellaneous ACM usually non-friable
Materials in the first two categories are of particular interest in
determining the likelihood of exposure in commercial and public buildings and
schools since they tend to be friable and may release fibers more readily than
the non-friable ACM in category 3. The release of the asbestos fibers can be
caused by deterioration of ACM, air erosion, disturbance, such as drilling,
cutting, sanding and by just plain vandalism. When the asbestos fibers become
airborne, they are held in suspension for long periods of time due to their
aerodynamical configuration and microscopic size. Fibers can then be easily
inhaled or ingested by the building occupants.
In Region V, there are approximately 739,800 commercial and public buildings
and schools (3). Of this number of buildings, there are approximately 151,200
buildings with friable asbestos-containing material (FACM), 105,800 buildings
with damaged FACM, and 66,400 buildings with significantly damaged FACM.
Higher levels of exposure will be present in the buildings with significantly
damaged FACM,
There are approximately 7,115,600 occupants in commercial and public buildings
containing FACM (1) and approximately 3,354,000 occupants in school buildings
containing FACM. Combined, in Region V, there are approximately 10,469,600
occupants in commercial and public buildings and schools that contain FACM.
Further analysis has revealed there are approximately 7,224,000 occupants in
commercial and public buildings and schools with damaged FACM and
approximately 3,245,600 occupants in commercial and public buildings and
schools with significantly damaged FACM.
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HUMAN HEALTH CHARACTERIZATION
CANCER RISKS
In arriving at the cancer risk from asbestos in commercial and public
buildings and schools, there are variables and uncertainties in the available
data. In Region V, the numbers of commercial and public buildings and schools
and their respective populations have been established with some degree of
accuracy. However, one of the biggest obstacles is the inadequate data on
prevailing asbestos fiber levels to which these building occupants are
exposed. Also, the contributing risk factor of the building population such
as age, race, and sex are unknown. Therefore, it is necessary to make some
assumptions.
In our analysis, Region V used Nicholson's Risk Models (5). The Models'
results are directly in proportion to asbestos fiber concentrations so that
determination of the statistical cancer risks associated with higher or lower
levels can be calculated. The Risk Model used an arbiturary exposure level of
0.01 f/cc which is also the U.S. EPA suggested clearance level for asbestos
abatement projects. An exposure level of 0.005 f/cc has been applied to this
analysis which is lower than the suggested clearance level. This level is
approximately the mean average between 0.01 f/cc clearance level and the 0.002
f/cc level identified in school buildings with FACM in one school district
surveyed by the U.S. EPA. (1) "Arbitrarily selected levels of airborne
asbestos fibers are applied to illustrate the sensitivity of the Model." (1)
The assumption was also made that the occupants of commercial and public
buildings and schools have the age, race and sex distribution of the United
States occupational population. Also, it was assumed that the proportion of
occupants exposed to airborne asbestos is the same as the proportion of such
buildings that contain asbestos.
In presenting our findings, the building occupants were split into two
categories:NON-CUSTODIAL OCCUPANTS and CUSTODIAL OCCUPANTS. Studies have
shown that custodians of buildings potentially face a higher level of exposure
to fibers than do other occupants of the same buildings. This higher level of
exposure is based on the fact that much of the asbestos is located in areas
frequented by custodians, such as boiler rooms, and that custodians are
engaged in activities which can possibly disturb FACM. (1)
In Table 1, the estimated cancer cases and deaths of non-custodial occupants
of commercial and public buildings and schools was based on the fiber level of
0.005 f/cc. In Table 2, the estimated cancer cases and deaths of custodial
occupants of commercial and public buildings and schools was based on the OSHA
permissible exposure level of 0.2 f/cc, the OSHA action level of 0.01 f/cc and
the phase contrast microscopy detection limit of 0.01 f/cc. (1)
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Non-Cancer Risk
As mentioned earlier, the Asbestosis was only non-cancerous disease associated
with asbestos is exposure. Since Asbestosis is related to high occupational
exposure to asbestos fibers, it has not been identified as a health risk to
asbestos exposure in commercial and public buildings and schools.
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CONCLUSION
The known fact is that asbestos is a carcinogen. The unknown fact is whether
or not there is a safe level of exposure to airborne asbestos fibers. As
previously stated, we can only assume that any level of response is hazardous.
In Tables 1 and 2, Nicholson's Risk Models (5) were used in projecting the
cancer risk in Region V for of 10,469,600 occupants of commercial and public
buildings and schools containing FACM for the lifetime of the buildings based
on 50 years. In Table 1 for 10,365,300 non-custodial occupants, an exposure
level of .005 f/cc was used. In table 2 for 104,300 custodial occupants, the
risk results are shown at various exposure levels.
As previously mentioned, the cancer risk is directly proportional to the level
of exposure. (1) In Table 1, using Nicholson's Risk Models at an exposure
level of 0.005 f/cc the probable cancer cases would be 42,756. In Table 2,
the probable cancer cases would be 8,448, 4,229, and 433 at exposure levels of
0.2 f/cc, 0.1 f/cc, and 0.01 f/cc respectively. If the exposure level of
0.005 f/cc is increased to 0.01 f/cc, then the cancer cases would double to
85,512.
The level of exposure is the key to the risk. This exposure level can vary
substantially in buildings with significantly damaged FACM. This can also
vary with the disturbance of the FACM. This disturbance can be caused by
normal activities within the buildings or it could be caused by improper
asbestos abatement activities. These types of activities can be controlled or
regulated.
One very important area at risk that must be considered is the residential
area. It is estimated there are approximately 19 million housing units in
Region V. Many of the occupants of these housing units not only face possible
exposure to airborne asbestos fibers in the house but also possible exposure
in commercial and public buildings and schools. It follows that untold
numbers of men, women and children face possible exposure solely in the home
environment.
This situation also exists in the numerous auto repair shops where the
mechanics are exposed to high levels of asbestos fibers when replacing
asbestos laden brake shoes and pads. The necessary data is not available to
estimate the numbers of persons at risk in this environment.
This problem area, Asbestos as an Indoor Air Pollutant, does not affect the
Great Lakes.
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TABLE 1
NON-CUSTODIAL OCCUPANTS - REGION V
EXPOSURE LEVELS 0.005 f/cc
Cancer Cases
Cancer Deaths
Lung Cancer
G.I. Cancer
Mesothelioma
Total Deaths
Public and
Commercial Buildings
29,265
12,133
1,213
14,147
27,493
TABLE 2
Schools
(Students-Teachers-Staff) Total
13,491 42,
5,678 17,
568 1,
6,420 20,
12,666 40,
756
811
781
567
159
CUSTODIAL OCCUPANTS - REGION V
Cancer Cases
Cancer Deaths
Lung Cancer
G.I. Cancer
Mesothelioma
Total Deaths
INCLUDING SCHOOL
At Average of
0.2 f/cc
8,448
3,560
360
4,010
7,930
267
CUSTODIANS
At Average of At Average of
0.1 f/cc 0.01 f/cc
4,229 433
1,780 178
180 18
2,010 201
3,970 397
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RANKING - HUMAN HEALTH RISK
Cancer Risk
Using an arbitrary exposure level of 0.005 f/cc for non custodians and an
exposure level of 0.2 f/cc for custodians and assuming variables, such as age,
race and sex, distribution remains constant and also takes into consideration
the exposed population in the residential area, then:
Annual Cancer Cases x 1.0 for "A" carcinogen = Interim Score
1025 x 1.0 = 1025
Interim Score Score
1025 = 4
Note that the asbestos problem area was not ranked separately but included in the
indoor air pollutants other than radon problem area.
268
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REFERENCES
(1) "EPA Study of Asbestos-Containing Materials in Public Buildings',"
February 1988
(2) "Cancer Risks of Asbestos Exposure,"' I.J. Selikoff-1977
(3) Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc., "Framework for Assessing Regional OPTS
Program Implementation Needs," February 1990
(4) "QED'S School Guide 1989-1990"
(5) "U.S. EPA Airborne Asbestos Health Assessment Update," June 1986
(6) "Airborne Asbestos Levels in Schools," U.S. EPA June 1983
269
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PROBLEM AREA TITLE
TSCA Chemical Control
PROBLEM AREA DEFINITIGN AN) DESCRIPTION
The TSCA Chemical Control problem area includes all aspects of the comrercial manufacture,
processing, distribution, use and disposal of new and existing chemical sib stances (except
pesticides; tobacco and tcbacco predicts; any source material, or byproduct material as
defined in the Atomic Energy Act of 1954; any article the sale of which is sibject to the
tax imposed by section 4181 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1954; and any food, food
additive, drug, cosnetic or device as defined in section 201 of the Federal Food, Drug and
Cosmetic Act). This problem area is different from all of the other problem areas covered
in the Comparative Risk Project, e>cept for Pesticides, in that the approach toward
regulating chemicals that may present unreasonable risks to life'and to the environment
across all media relies heavily on a forward looking, pollution prevention perspective. The
goal is to prevent a problem from occurring rather than dealing with a problem after it has
occurred. At the same time, TSCA Chemical Control also has the ability to gather
information on production, exposures, health effects, emissions, use and disposal of
chemicals already in conmerce and to regulate existing chemicals that pose an unreasonable
risk to life and to the environment that can not be adequately regulated through other
regulatory mechanisns. The result is that TSCA Chemical Control overlaps many of the problem
areas in the Comparative Risk Project. A summary of the overlaps is shown in Table 1.
These overlaps all result from TSCA's ability to regulate existing chemicals already in
comrerce. The portion of the TSCA Chemical Control problem area that deals -nth regulation
of new chemical sib stances, with new uses of existing chemical substances and with
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information gathering about existing chanicals, is unique and does not overlap any of the
other problem areas.
New Chemical s
Section 5 of TSCA, which established the Premanufacture ratification (PMN) requirement for
manufacturers and importers of new chemical substances, provides the mechanist) for the
evaluation of a new chemical substance (a chemical not already listed in the TSCA Inventory
for conmercial use in this country) for its potential health and ecological effects before
the chemical is distributed in comnerce. Risks are evaluated using all existing information
about the chemical1 s toxicity, the projected use and distribution of the chemical, and its
structural similarity to chemical s whose toxicity is better understood.
The result of this PMN review process is either to take no action or to regulate. If the
decision is to regulate, then the Agency has several options. EPA can prohibit or limit the
manufacture, processing, distribution in conmerce, use, and disposal of a new chemical if
EPA decides that:
a. the chemical will present an unreasonable risk of injury to human health or the
environment, or
b. there will be significant exposure to the chemical, but there is insufficient
information of the health and environmental effects of the chemical to permit a
reasoned evaluation.
There have been 5 possible outcomes from the decision to regulate. These are:
a. The company may withdraw the PMN and not introduce the chemical into conmerce.
b. The company may develop toxicity information sufficient to permit a reasoned
evaluation of the health or environmental effects of the substance prior to the
conclusion of the PMN review period ("upfront" or "voluntary testing).
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c. The company may develop and provide to EPA other information on the potential
effects of the sib stance or its analogues, the potential exposures, or both, which
if accepted by the Agency, would negate the potential unreasonable risk
determination.
d. The company may, together with EPA, suspend the notice review period, and
negotiate and enter into a consent order. The consent order would permit limited
manufacture, processing, distribution in commerce, use, and disposal of the
substance pending the development of information. A consent order may contain a
requirement that toxicity data be submitted to ERA when a specified volume of
chemical has been prodxed. This production volume level is set where ERA
estimates that profits from the chemical will support the cost of testing.
e. The company may refuse to withdraw the PMN, negotiate a consent order with EPA,
and/or conduct upfront testing or develop other information. EPA would then
unilaterally develop an order to ban manufacture or import.
Since the PMN process was begun in 1979, 12,128 (as of mid 1989) new chemical submissions
have been reviewed. Of these submissions, the review process has lead to the decision to
regulate in 1,078 cases, or about 9 percent. This means that the risk assessment analysis
has shown that 1 new chemical in 11 poses an unreasonable risk to life or to the
environment. Of the 1,078 cases where unreasonable risks were predicted, the largest
subgroup consisted of 565 PMNs (roughly 1 in 22 PMN submissions) which were withdrawn in the
face of pending regulation. Although there is no guarantee that the PMN review process has
identified all of the new chemical substances that could ultimately become health or
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TABLE 1
Overlaps of the TSCA Chemical Cbntrol Problem Area
TSCA Chemical
Problem Area Control Overlap
1. Industrial Wastewater Di charges to Oceans, Lakes and Rivers Yes
2. Mumicipal Wastewater Discharges to Oceans, Lakes and Rivers Yes
3. Aggregated Puolic and Private Drinking Water Supplies Yes
4. Nan-point S>urce Discharges to Oceans, Lakes and Rivers Yes
5. Physical Degradation of Water and Watland Habitats N>
6. Aggregated Ground Water Oontami nation Yes
7. Storage Tanks ND
8. RCRA Hazardous Waste Yes
9. Hazardous Waste Sites — /bandoned/Superfund Sites Yes
10. Municipal Solid Waste Sites Yes
11. Industrial Solid Waste Sites Yes
12. Accidental Chemical Releases to the Environment Yes
13. Pesticides Yes
14. Sulfur Oxides and Nitrogen Oxides (including Acid Deposition) No
15. Ozone and Carbon Monoxide No
16. Airborne Lead No
17. Particul ate Matter No
18. Hazardous/Toxic Air Fbllutants Yes
19. Indoor Air Pollutants other than Radon Yes
20. Indoor Radon ND
21. Radiation other than Radon No
22. Physical Degradation of Terrestrial Ecosystems/Habitats No
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environmental problems, it has greatly redxed the chances that something like PCBs or vinyl
chloride will get into comnerce and be widely distributed only to have to be subsequently
controlled at great cost.
Evaluating chemical related risks and making regulatory decisions before a sib stance enters
the market place is the best pollution prevention strategy. Intervention prior to
permitting risks to occur is the basis of the New Chemicals Program. In reaching a decision
whether to permit a new chemical to enter the market place, EPA tries to encourage safer
chemicals to succeed in comnerce and replace their riskier counter parts which are already
available. Therefore, a "relative risk" policy has always been a component of the Naw
Chemicals Program. The "relative risk" policy allows EPA to minimize regulatory burdens on
new chemical substances that will substitute for nore toxic chemicals that are already in
wide-spread use. This policy is designed to reward and encourage industrial innovation if
it results in the development of safer new chemicals.
Information Gathering Regarding Existing Chemicals
Section 8 of TSCA provides the mechani sn for the Agency to request infor-fliation from anyone
who manufactures or processes or proposes to manufacture or process a chemical substance.
The Agency maintains the TSCA Chemical Substance Inventory (Inventory) which contains
information detailing the identity of all chemicals in commerce in this country, the
identity and location of facilities manufacturing chemical sib stances, and the quantity of
each chemical sub stance produced. The Inventory i s updated every time a new chemical enters
comnerce and is updated every 4 years with new information on production facilities and
production volimes. Any person who manufactures, processes, or distributes in comnerce any
chemical substance or mixture is required to maintain records of significant adverse
reactions to health or the environment alleged by anyone to have been caused by the chemical
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abstance or mixture. These allegations must be made available to the Agency upon request.
Similarly, anyone who conducts any health and safety when asked to do so must submit the
study to the Agency. These same people must promptly submit any information which
reasonably supports the conclusion that the chemical substance or mixture presents a
substantial risk of injury to health or the environment. Finally, under the Preliminary
Assessnent Information Rule (PAIR) and the Comprehensive Assessment Information Rule (CAIR),
information is gathered on manufacturing processes, exposures and emissions resulting from
the manufacture and processing of specific chemical substances or mixtures.
Information gathered under Section 8 has 2 main purposes. First, it is used to constrict
and maintain the TSCA Inventory which is essential to the functioning of the New Chemical
Program. Second, it is used to gather information about chemicals already in cormence that
are now of concern because of what has been learned about the potential risk to health or
environment. This information can be used for regulatory purposes.
Regional Responsibility
The Regional responsibility in the new chemical review and information gathering portions of
TSCA is enforcement. The Region constantly looks over the shoulder of the regulated
cormunity examining chemical prediction (manufacture and import), prediction processes,
distribution, and use. The objective of this examination is to assure that all of the
information that is supposed to be submitted is in fact being submitted. Emphasis is on
making certain that new chemicals do not enter conmerce without benefit of the PMN process.
Regional Compliance efforts are crucial for gathering accurate information which is used in
screening systems. Outreach, inspections, and enforcement (all are regional functions) are
essential to ensure the integrity of the data. EPA needs all the data, not just the data
that the manufacturer wants the Agency to have.
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Since the emphasis of this program is on collecting and analyzing information, and since
this process is only as valid as the information that the Agency receives, it is imperative
that a powerful enforcement program is established in every region to ensure the submission
of accurate and timely information. Without a powerful enforcement program, the Agency1 s
decision making process will be seriously impaired.
HufflN HEALTH RISK ASSES9COT
For the purposes of this comparative risk project, the ffew Chemicals Program in teadquarters
has assembled a wealth of risk assessment information on the potential risks posed by
thousands of chemicals. The information gathering provisions of TSCA have also assembled
considerable information regarding existing chemicals. All of this information resides at
Headquarters. Unfortunately, the vast majority of the information submitted in PMNs is
claimed to be Confidential Business Information (CBI). A good deal of the information
gathered on existing chemicals has also been claimed to be CBI. Since CBI information was
used in the risk assessnents performed in PMN review, it is impossible to present the
specifics of chemical identity, production site, production volume, worker exposure,
community exposure, and disposal. Not being able to use this critical information severely
restricts the preparation of a Regional - specific assessment of human health and
environmental risks.
TOoem ASSESSMENT
The inaccessibility of the chemical specific toxicity data, as explained above, makes it
very difficult to provide information in this section. It must also be remembered that
toxicity information does not usually exist for new chemicals and that the Agency relies
heavily on structure activity relationships to predict toxicity. Through experience gained
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in reviewing PMN chemicals, it has been possible to expect certain kinds of toxicity from
certain classes of chemicals, and the Agency has developed a List of Chemicals of Concern by
Category. Hunan health concerns are sumiarized in Table 2.
EXPOSURE ASSESSOR"
As with toxicity assessment, the inaccessibility of exposure information makes it impossible
to present quantitative data in this section. Since new chemicals are not in commercial
production at the time a PMN is submitted, all exposures are estimates. From the point of
view of worker exposure, respiratory and dermal exposures are the most important. Estimates
of exposures predicted to result from distribution of the new chemical in commerce, use and
disposal would depend on the chemical, its physical chemical properties, and the way it is
used. Dermal exposure would likely be reduced in importance from the workplace, and
inhalation and ingestion would likely be the significant exposure routes.
The exposed population for many proposed new chemicals is very grail and in some cases may
be limited to a snail ntnber of well trained professionals. In other cases, the proposed
use and production of the new chemical could be so large that, for all practical purposes,
HIWi \ftL~M RISK CHW/VCTEREKTION
Again, the inaccessibility of information prevents a quantitative presentation in this
section. However, some conclusions can be drawn from other information. As was pointed out
in problem area definition discussion, 565 PMNs for new chemicals have been withdrawn in the
face of control regulations (1). These 565 chemicals were expected to have caused effects
which were severe enough to have warranted control. Since the PMNs ware withdrawn, these
chemicals will not enter conmerce in this country and all the expected effects eliminated
before they could occur. This includes "some" PMN chemical s which would have been banned if
the PMN had not been withdrawn. The action taken with certain chemical classes is shown in
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TABLE 2
List of Chemicals of Concern to fiman tealth by Category (2)
Category
Azrylates
/fcrylate Polymers
Alkoxysllanes
Epoxldes
Hydrazines
Isocyanates
Peroxides
Vinyl Sulfones
Effects
Oncogenicity
Oncogenicity
Chronic Lung
Toxicity
Oncogenicity,
Reproductive
Toxicity
Oncogenicity,
Chronic Toxicity
Skin and .Lung
Sensitization,
Other Lung Effects
Oncogenicity
Mitagenicity
Oncogenicity
/\ction
Issue 5(e) order for worker
protection
Issue 5(e) order for worker protec-
tion if average molecular weight
< 1000 or if average molecular weight
> 1000 and at least 2% of species with
molecular weight < 500
Consent order with testing trigger if
inhalation exposures can be controlled
with respirators or else ban pending
upfront testing
Issue 5(e) order for,worker protection
and triggered testing
Ban pending upfront testing. If
result is acceptable, issue consent
order for worker protection
Concern is for molecular weight < 1000
Issue 5(e) order for worker protection
Ban pending upfront testing
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Table 2. The rrost comon action for these classes of chemical s is to issue a consent order.
In all, about 9 percent of all PMN reviews (1 in 11) result in the decision to regulate (1).
Even if the vast majority of these chemicals would only have been of concern in the
workplace, there are still some chemicals that would have caused effects so serious that
they would have been banned from comnerce if the PMN had not been withdrawn. Had these new
chemicals not been studied in the PMN process, major deleterious health effects probably
would have occurred.
It is difficult to estimate how mxh of the national risk posed by new chemicals would occur
in Region V. Data collected to create the Toxic Chemical Release Inventory under the
Emergency Planning and Gannunity Right-to-Know Act indicated that 25 percent of all of the
industries in the nation in standard industrial codes 20-39 (the manufacturing sector) were
in the 6 states in Region V (3). Although all industrial groups are not equally distributed
across the nation, Region V does have a sizable representation from those industries that
manufacture or import chemicals. It at least would be a reasonable ballpark estimate to
assure that, since Region V has 25 percent of the nation1 s manufacturing facilities, Region
V has roughly 25 percent of the chemical prediction (manufacture and import) facilities in
the nation. Extrapolating one more step, Region V then can be expected to have 25 percent
of the national risk resulting from new chemicals. With 25 percent of the national risk
being concentrated in just 6 states, control of new chemicals is a very important hunan
health problem in Region V.
ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
For the purposes of this comparative risk project, the Naw Chemicals Program in Headquarters
has assenbled a wealth of risk assessnent information on the potential risks posed by
thousands of chemicals. The information gathering provisions of TSCA have also assembled
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considerable information regarding existing chemicals. All of this information resides at
Headquarters. Unfortunately, the vast majority of the information submitted in PMNs is
claimed to be Confidential Business Information (CBI). A good deal of the information
gathered on existing chemicals has also been claimed to be CBI. Since CBI information was
used in the risk assessments performed in PMN review, it is impossible to
present the specifics of chemical identity, production site, production volune, aquatic
exposure, terrestrial exposure, and disposal, tot being able to use this critical
information severely restricts the preparation of a Region V specific assessment of
environmental risks.
TODdCITY ASSES9ENT
The inaccessibility of the chemical specific toxicity data, as explained above, makes it
very difficult to provide information in this section. It must also be remenbered that
toxicity information does not usually exist for new chemicals and that the Agency relies
heavily on structure activity relationships to predict toxicity. Through experience gained
in reviewing PMN chemicals, it has been possible to expect certain kinds of toxicity from
certain classes of chemicals, and the Agency has developed a "List of Chemicals of Concern
by Category. The list of chemicals and chemical categories of concern, because of
potential environmental impact, is shown in Table 3.
EXPOSURE ASSES9ENT
As with toxicity assessment, the inaccessibility of exposure information makes it impossible
to present quantitative data in this section. Since new chemicals are not in comnercial
production at the time a PMN is submitted, all exposures are estimates.
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Estimates of exposures predicted to result from distribution of the new chemical in
commerce, use, and disposal vould depend on the chemical, its physical chemical properties,
and the way it is used.
ECOLOGICAL RISK CHARACTERIZATION
Again, the inaccessibility of information prevents a quantitative presentation in this
section, hbwever, some conclusions can be drawn from other information. Chemicals listed
by category shown in Table 3 would be regulated as shown in the table. As was pointed out
in problem area definition discussion, 565 PMNs from new chemicals have been withdrawn in
the face of control regulations (1). These 565 chemical s were expected to have caused
control. Since the PMNs were withdrawn, these chemical s will not enter conmerce in this
country and all the expected effects eliminated before they could occur. This includes
"seme" PMN chemical s which would have been banned if the PMN had not been withdrawn. In
all, about 9 percent of all PMN reviews (1 in 11) result in the decision to regulate (1).
Some of those chemical s would have been banned from conmerce if the PMN had not been
withdrawn. Had these new chemicals not been studied in the PMN process, major ecological
effects likely would have occurred.
It is difficult to estimate how much of the national risk posed by new chemicals would occur
in Region V. Data collected to create the Toxic Chemical Release Inventory under the
Emergency Planning and Coimnity Right-to-Know Act indicated that 25 percent of all of the
industries in the nation in standard industrial codes 20-39 (the manufacturing sector) were
in the 6 states in ftegion V. Although all industrial groups are not equally distributed
across the nation, Region V does have a sizable representation from those industries that
manufacture or import chemicals (not limited to the traditional chemical manufacturers). It
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TABLE 3
Li st of Chemical s of Concern to the
Category Effect
Aliphatic Anines Aquatic Toxicity
Alkoxy si lanes
Chronic Lung
Toxicity
Environment by Category (2)
Action
Ban pending upfront testing
Upfront ecotoxicity testing
Anionic Surfactants
(Includes linear alkyl benzene
sulfonates; carboxylic acid
and phosphoris acid terminated
anionic surfactants; mono,di and
trial kyl anionic surfactants; and
di and polyacid terminated
anionic surfactants)
Cationic fyes
Dithiocarbamates
Hydrarines
(Includes hydrazides, semi-
carbazides, nydraaanes,
ssnicartazcmes, and
thiol analogues
Neutral Organics
Itmionic Surfactants
Ftolyanionic Fblymers
Ffclycationic Fblymers
Cationic (Quaternary
Anronium) Surfactants
(Includes mono,di, and
trial kyl surfactants.
16 carbon chain the rrost toxic)
Substituted Triazines
Aquatic Toxicity Ban pending upfront testing
Aquatic Toxicity
Aquatic Toxicity
fcotoxicity
Aquatic Toxicity
Aquatic Toxicity
Aquatic Tbxicity
Aquatic Toxicity
Aquatic Toxicity
Aquatic Tbxicity
Ban pending upfront testing
Ban pending upfront testing
Ban pending upfront testing
Ban pending upfront testing
Ban pending upfront testing
Ban pending upfront testing
Ban pending upfront testing
Ban pending upfront testing
Ban pending upfront testing.
Refer to OPP for terrestrial
exposure.
Soluble salts of Zinc
Aquatic Toxicity Ban pending upfront testing
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at least would be a reasonable ballpark estimate to asame that, since Ragion V has 25 per-
cent of the nation1 s manufacturing facilities, Region V has roughly 25 percent of the
chemical production (manufacture and import) facilities in the nation (3). Extrapolating
one more step, Region V then can be expected to have 25 percent of the national risk
resulting from new chemicals. With 25 percent of the national risk being concentrated in
just 6 states, control of new chemicals is a very important problem in Region V.
Note than this problem area was not ranked.
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1. Dwain Winters, vbhn felone, Charlie Auer and Larry Culleen, OTS Briefing for Linda
Fisher — ffew Chenicals/PMN Process, May 24, 1989.
2. List of Chemicals of Concern by Category, PMI Focus Meeting: Gfeneric tegulatory
Findings, Updated April 1990.
3. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Toxic Substances, The Toxics-Release
Inventory, A Nation Perspective, 1987, Pib. N). EPA 560/4-89-005, June 1989.
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WORKERS EXPOSURE TO PQI£HDQRINATED BIPHENYLS
PROBLEM AREA EEETNTEICN AND DESCRIPTION
PCBs are compounds which belong to a broad family of organic chemicals known
as chlorinated hydrocarbons. Its excellent chemical and thermal stability,
fire resistance, non-conductivity and low solubility in water have resulted in
widespread industrial use. PCB have been widely used as dielectric fluids in
transformers and capacitors, hydraulic fluids in hydraulic systems, and heat
transfer fluids in heat transfer systems.
It was not until the 1960's that indications of the toxicity of PCBs began to
emerge. As the evidence of PCBs toxicity accumulated in the late 1960's and
early 1970's, the United States Congress responded by including in the Toxic
Substances Control Act of 1976 (T5CA) a provision to prohibit the manufacture
of PCBs. The processing, distribution in commerce, and use of PCBs is
prohibited except in a totally enclosed manner. A large volume of PCBs have
been released to the environment over the years. This release occurred
primarily through spilling and discharging to surface waters, disposal onto
land and into landfills and through release to the air.
Since PCBs are very persistent chemicals and are widely distributed throughout
the environment, humans have been and will continue to be exposed to them.
Once released to the environment, PCBs do not readily decompose into new
chemical arrangements with reduced toxicity, instead they bioaccumulate in the
fatty tissues of the organisms that consume them. Fish are known to bio-
concentrate PCBs. Consumption of fish has been identified as the primary
route of human exposure to PCBs. The general population is also exposed to
PCB levels in the breathable air.
Occupational exposure is the other source of human exposure to PCBs and will
be the focus of this comparative risk study. PCBs are no longer manufactured,
however, the potential for occupational exposure still exists, since PCB-
containing transformers and capacitors remain in use. The useful lifetime of
many of these transformers can be 30 years or more. Large capacitors,
containing about 2-3 gallons of PCBs, have a service life of 15-20 years.
It is estimated that there are 37,480 Askarel transformers in Region 5 which
represents about 23% of all Askarel transformers in the U.S. (1). The
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates 3.3% of these transformers,
containing PCBs currently in use, will leak in any year (2). Occupational
exposure to PCBs used in transformers may occur during servicing,
transportation or as a result of leaks.
In addition, potential occupational exposures exist in the servicing of
appliances containing PCB capacitors and in the disposal of the used PCB
capacitors. Occupational exposures to PCBs can also occur in the use of
manufactured items containing PCBs, such as hydraulic systems, heat transfer
systems, air compressors and gas transmission turbines (3).
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Due to limited current information on human health exposure to PCBs, the
comparative risk study on workers' exposure covers only the occupational
exposure during the following activity:
.Routine maintenance of PCS and PCB-contaminated transformers
.Repair of bushings on KB and PCB-contaminated transformers
.Cleanup of spills involving PCB or PCB-contaminated transformers and PCB
capacitors
The other potential exposures mentioned above and contamination of ambient air
and water by PCBs, and consumption of PCB contaminated fish are not included
in this discussion.
HLMAN HEAL3H RISK ASSESSMENT
TCKICITr ASSESSMENT
PCBs are classified as B2, a probable human carcinogen as reported in the U.S.
EPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) data base (4). EPA recommends
that all commercial PCB mixtures be considered to have a similar carcinogenic
potential and are PCB mixtures in category B2. Hie National Institute for
Occupational Safety and Health (NIQSH) reccmnends that PCBs be regarded as
potential human carcinogens in the work place(5). The cancer potency factor
of 1.1 (mg/kg-bw/day)""1 taken from the U.S. EPA's IRIS data base is used in
the cancer risk assessment.
Human studies to date show that skin irritations such as acne-like lesions and
rashes can occur on PCB exposed workers (6). Other occupational exposure
studies suggest that PCBs might cause liver cancer (7). Reproductive and
developmental effects may also be related to occupational exposure to PCBs and
eating PCB contaminated fish (8,9). Although there are no conclusive data,
the suggestive evidence provides an additional basis for public health concern
about human exposure to PCBs.
NIOSH recommends 0.001 milligram of PCBs per cubic meter of air (mg/m3) as the
occupational permissable exposure limit (PEL) for all PCBs for a 10-hour
workday, 40-hr workweek.(10) On the other hand, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration (OSHA) recommends the PEL limits of 0.5 mg/m3
(chlorodiphenyl, 54% chlorine) and 1.0 icg/nr (chlorodiphyenl, 46% chlorine)
for an 8-hour workday.
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EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT
Inhalation and dermal exposure are the primary routes of occupational exposure
to PCBs. The exposed population used in this study was assumed to be wearing
protective clothing such as disposable suits and gloves. Only workers doing
repair and maintenance of PCB transformers were assumed to be wearing air
purifying respirators, reducing the PCB air concentration (21 ug/in3) by about
90%. Inhalation exposure to PCB was the only route of exposure used in the
calculation of the human health risk.
The population exposure was determined from the estimated time a worker spends
in a specific activity and from the total pieces of electrical equipment
containing PCBs still in use and would be subject to repair and maintenance
(12,13). Table 1 show the estimated population exposure for each activity.
Table 1. Estimated Population Exposure
Activity Number of Systems Number of Vtorkers (e)
In Use
Routine Maintenance(a) 37,480(Askarel transformer) 38
61,505 (mineral oil transformers >500ppm) 62
588,995 (mineral oil transformer 50-500 ppm) 589
Repair and Bushing(b) 687,980(d) 18,576
Replacement
Spill Cleanup(c) 687,980 341
723,606(capacitors) 358
a) It takes 2 hours to do routine maintenance of one transformers
b) Repair of leaking bushing requires a maximum of 3 people working
6hr/day/transformer/person; maximum of 3 days for completion of work.
c) Typical spill cleanup is a 2 person job. Maximum hours estimated from
initial cleanup to final decontamination (including post sampling) is 15
hrs per person.
d) Sum of all the PCB containing transformers in use.
e) Calculation based on time per activity per piece of electrical equipment,
total pieces of electrical equipment and working 40 hrs/wk for total of 50
weeks.
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PETATTT RT53C
CANCER RISK
The cancer risks developed in this comparative risk study are based on
inhalation exposure to PCBs. This occurs in the course of intimate contact
with electrical equipment either routinely maintained or repaired and serviced
which, in some cases, necessitates partial or complete disassembly. In
addition, cleanup personnel will also be intimately exposed to PCBs in the air
and volatilizing from surfaces resulting from spills and leaks from PCB and
PCB-contaminated electrical equipment. Hie estimates are based on
occupational exposure on limited tasks for which we have definitive
information. Case study analyses are not available from other sources.
Repair and replacement of leaking bushings, which require more personnel
working over a longer period per task and thus with a longer exposure to PCBs
when compared to work in the other tasks addressed, show the highest potential
for cancer incidents.
Table 2. Summary of Cancer Risk Assessment
Activity Estimated Population concentration Individual Lifetime Total
Exposure ug/nr Cancer Cases (c) Cancer
Cases
Routine Maintenance
Repair and Bushing
689 2.1(a)
18,576 2.1
3.7x10^
l.lxlO"3
0.3
20.0
Replacement
Spill Cleanup 699 0.3(b) l.lxlO"4 0.07
Average Risk = l.OxlO"3
a) PCB air concentration as determined in the maintenance area where PCB
contaminated equipment is handled (4).
b) 1982 study of PCB air concentration from personal breathing zone by job
task (15).
c) Calculation based on the assumed respiration rate of 15 m3/day with mild
exertion in an 8 hour day; working 30 years in his lifetime, adjusted to
actual time exposure (16).
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To rank this risk, an "Interim Score" must be developed which is the multiple
of the annual cancer cases (Table 2) and the cancer class factor (.67) for
PCBs, a Class B carcinogen:
Ann. Cancer
Cancer x Class = "Interim Score"
Cases Factor
20 .67 13
The risk category is based on a "Final Score" determined from the given
"Interim Score" range which in this case is 10-100. This range indicates that
repair and bushing replacement is in a medium-low risk category.
RTSK
Applying the same methodology as given in the Region 5 guidelines, the non-
cancer scoring indicates that even though there is more intimate contact and
exposure to PCBs in transformer repair and bushing replacement than in routine
maintenance and spill cleanup, this task is, also in a low health risk
category.
There may be some uncertainty in the risk categories developed since our data
was based on information from a very small segment of the utilities
interviewed.
If occupational exposure to PCBs during the use of hydraulic and heat transfer
systems, air compressors, and gas turbines had been considered, the risk
category may have been higher. However, these exposure routes were not
considered because available information was not definitive.
B008DDGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
The ecological risk was not considered since this comparative risk study
addressed only PCB exposure in the workplace.
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References
1) EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) "Askarel Transformer Analysis
Presentation to Environmental Agency." March 22, 1988.
2) Final Report for Task 1-04, "PCB Spill Cleanup Policy Evaluation, Prepared
by Westat, Inc. December 12, 1988.
3) Hesse, J.L., "Polychlorinated Biphenyl Usage and Sources of Loss to the
Environment in Michigan, in Proceedings of the National Conference on
Polychlorinated Biphenyls, November 19-21, 1975, Chicago EPA-560/675-004.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Toxic Substances, 1976, pp
127-33.
4) EPA (Environmental Protection Agency). 1988. IRIS (Integrated Risk
Information System), CRAVE (Carcinogen Risk Assessment Validation Endeavor)
for polychlorinated biphenyls. (Verification date 4/22/87). On-line:
input pending Cincinnati, Ohio: Office of Health and Environmental
Assessment, Environmental Criteria and Assessment Office.
5) NIQSH (National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health). 1986.
Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs): Potential Health Hazards from Electrical
Equipment Fires or Failures. Department of Health and Human Services.
NIOSH Publ. 86-111.
6) Fischbein 4, Wolff, M.S., Bernstein, Selikaff, IJ. "Dermatological Findings
in Capacitor Manufacturing Workers Exposed to Dielectric Fluids Containing
Polychlorinated biphenyls." Arch Environ Health 37:69-74.
7) Brown, D.P. 1987. "Mortality of Workers Exposed to Polychlorinated
Biphenyls — An Update." Arch. Environ. Health. 333-357.
8) Fein, G.G., Jacobson, J.C., Jacobson S.W., Schwartz, P.M, Dowler, J.K.
"Prenatal Exposure to Polychlorinated Biphenyls Effects on Birth Size and
Gestational age."1982 J. Pediatrics 105: 315-320.
9) Jacobson, J., Jacobson, S. and Humphrey, H, "Effects of in Utero Exposure
to Polychlorinated Biphenyls and Related Ctontaminants on Cognitive
Functioning in young children." 1990. The Journal of Pediatrics 79: 38-45.
10) Toxicological Profile for Selected PCBs (Aroclor-1260,-1254,-1242, 1232 -
1221, and 1016). Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry. U.S.
Public Health Service.
11) National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH). Criteria
for a Recommended Standard Occupational Exposure to Polychlorinated
Biphenyls (PCBs). September 1977
12) Information given by an electric servicing facility through telephone
inquiry.
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13) EPA (Eavironmental Protection Agency). "Framework for Assessing Regional
OPTS Program Implementation Needs" Prepared by Temple, Barker & Sloane,
Inc. for the Office of Pesticides and Toxic Substances, February 1990.
14) ENSR In-house - Air IVbnitoring data. 1989.
15) MDseley, C.L., Geraci, C. and Burg, J. "Polychlorinated Biphenyl Exposure
in Transformer Maintenance Operations." Am. Ind. Hyg. Assoc. J 43: 170-174
1982.
16) Clark, J. "Comparative Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis of Remedial
Alternatives for the OXC Site. "Canirunication to W. Sanders. December 7,
1987.
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22. PHYSICAL DEGRADATION OF TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS
When we first approached this environmental problem area, it
appeared almost overwelming. The physical degradation of
terrestrial ecosystems from their natural state could include
nearly every physical impact of humanity on the environment.
This approach did not appear to be a realistic or useful basis
for assessing the physical risk to the Region's ecosystems.
Meetings we held to establish a working definition, yielded a
spectrum of suggestions, if not conflicting, either too narrow
or too broad to be used as a foundation for further analysis.
We decided to develop a hypothesis about non-chemical
stressors to the environment and what their impacts mean for
the ecosystems in our Region. We conducted literature
searches and gathered data from a wide variety of sources to
determine whether we could identify the the most significant
stressors to the environment and the natural resources,
including ecosystems at risk.
PROBLEM AREA DEFINITION AND DESCRIPTION
The ecological risk posed by the physical degradation of
terrestrial ecosystems in Region 5 results from numerous and
often interrelated sources. The most prevalent degradatory
impacts include deforestation, erosion, loss of species
diversity and populations, and loss of rare indigenous
natural ecosystems. The U.S. EPA's statutory authority to
protect terrestrial natural resources through National
Environmental Policy Act, as amended, charges the Federal
Government with using all practicable means to "fulfill the
responsibilities of each generation as trustee of the
environment for succeeding generations." Given this
responsibility, this analysis attempts to identify the
physical threats to the health and integrity of the
terrestrial ecosystems within Region 5.
The majority of land in Region 5, heavily forested in its
pristine condition, has been extensively clear cut for
agricultural use. While converting land for agriculture is
no longer rapidly expanding, agricultural practices have
significant degradatory impacts on the Region's natural
resources, including wildlife habitat, species diversity and
soil fertility. Other significant impairment of terrestrial
resources result from forest management practices and
mining. All the terrestrial ecosystems in the Region,
forest, agricultural, urban, and grasslands, including dune
and prairie, are impacted by one or several physical
stressors.
HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT
There are no human health impacts of physical degradation of
terrestrial ecosystems.
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ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
Analytical Approach
This report analyzes both specific stressors and specific
impacted ecosystems. Agricultural practices, forest
management practices and mining are major stressors due to
their severity or geographic magnitude of their impacts.
The three specialized terrestrial ecosystem types that are
threatened in Region 5 include prairie, dune and old growth
forest.
STRESSORS
Agricultural Management Practices
Agricultural cropland is by far the largest terrestrial
ecosystem in Region 5, comprising 44.5 percent of the total
land area of the six states in Region 5 by 1987 estimates.
Some of the most productive soils in the world are in Region
5, particularly the mollisols, which are rich in organic
material, and benefit from ample precipitation from both
Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico weather systems. Total
cropland acreage remained fairly constant between 1982 and
1987 for the entire Region, with each State realizing an
incremental increase except Minnesota, which decreased
slightly. (See Problem Area Appendix 1.) The majority of
these increases are due to converted pastureland.
Agricultural land management practices, as a stressor to the
environment, are significant due to the magnitude of Region 5 land
affected. These degrading practices can be categorized into
several specific practices.
o Planting crops in patterns that do not conform to the
contours of landscape.
o Plowing harvested fields.
o Plowing stream banks adjacent to crop fields for weed
control, and left barren.
o Plowing along roads adjacent to crop fields for weed
control, and left barren.
o Planting crops of a single genetic strain or monoculture.
Non-conforming planting patterns, post-harvest, stream bank
and roadside plowing result in soil erosion from unimpeded
water runoff and loose topsoil susceptible to displacement by
wind. Erosion, both water and wind driven, becomes a serious
impact when the topsoil erosion rate exceeds the natural
topsoil generation process potentially leading to a longterm
loss in fertility with both food production and wildlife
impacts. Several recent studies indicate that current
agricultural practices result in a soil loss rate exceeding
the soil generation rate, which will result in a significant
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reduction in crop yields by the next century in corn and
soybean fields.
All plowing activities cause a loss in food and cover for
wildlife, especially severe during the non-growing season.
The reduction of populations of wildlife species, dependent on
harvested plants for food and winter cover, results in a
potentially permanent disturbance to the food web. Stream
bank plowing, while likely to cause severe erosion due to its
charateristic slope, also results in loss of habitat for a
richly diverse and abundant wildlife community.
Monoculture planting increases crop vulnerability to blight,
herbivores and weather conditions. As a result, single gene
pool planting requires more intensive fertilizer and pesticide
use to alleviate potential production fluctuations.
Forest Management Practices
The second largest terrestrial ecosystem is forest, accounting
for 26.5 percent of the total region according to U.S. Soil
Conservation Service estimates. (See Problem Area Appendix 1.)
Regionwide, 3,146,000 acres or 4.9 percent of forest lands
were lost between 1952 and 1987. During this period, the
three northern States in the Region had their forest lands
diminish, while the three southern States in the Region
realized net gains in forest. However, between 1982 to 1987
the amount of forest land has remained constant, increasing
only 0.5 percent or 275,300 acres. Each Region 5 State
realized an incremental gain.
Forest Management Practices, or silviculture, have a significant
impact on Region 5 forest ecosystems due to their long term effect.
Forty-two percent, or 27,526,400 acres, of forest land in the
Region is owned by the timber industry. The degrading silviculture
practices include the following.
o Short rotation management and monotypic reforestation, or
single species planting, for future timber supplies.
o Clear cutting forest for harvesting for the timber
industry.
o Logging support activities, including construction and
maintenance of roads for worker and timber
transportation, as well as clearing for and construction
of logging camps and temporary storage areas for cut
timber.
Monotypic reforestation is a common technique, including use
in short rotation management, for harvesting the greatest
amount of lumber over the least amount of time. Forests are
characterized as monotypic, diverse, i.e., ecologically
balanced) or old growth. Monotypic forests are established
for a particlular purpose such as pulp/paper or lumber
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production. While these forests satisfy specific societal
needs, they do not support extensive or balanced ecosystems of
animal and plant communities. A single type of tree, all of
one age, does not provide for the needs of varying wildlife
species. In addition, the lack of decay does not support the
growth of vegetation necessary for food and cover of many
wildlife species indigenous to forest ecosystems. In
addition, to assure the growth and profitability of the
monotypic forest, intensive pesticide use is necessary to
counteract its vulnerability to disease and insect infestation
resulting from its genetic uniformity. A monotopic forest is
more susceptible to decimation by a single disease or insect
type.
The unnatural forestation cycles from short rotation
management significantly reduce the life span of forests from
over 200 years to around 70 years. The sensitive soils of
forested ecosystems may not be able to withstand repetitive
harvesting of this nature, reducing soil fertility, and in
turn, may endanger the existence of future forests. Selective
cutting of proportionate numbers of trees across species and
leaving materials for decomposition can prevent irreversible
damage. Likewise, if reforestation takes into account tree
species, genetic variety and age differences, a more natural
and diverse ecosystem can be recreated and self-sustaining,
less vulnerable to stressors.
Clear cutting practices, even if only small strips of forest,
result in significant habitat impacts, eliminating numerous
species. Habitat fragmentation occurs from disturbing
wildlife paths, effectively restricting migration, feeding and
colonizing behaviors. The smaller undisturbed area supports
less species diversity and effects wildlife reproduction, if
not in the short term, after several generations. The more
severe, short-term effect is loss of population due to
insufficent numbers within the species for mating to occur.
Where mating has not been curtailed, the restricted gene pool
may increase the local species susceptibility to disease in
the long term.
Reduction of the biological diversity of the vegetation, and
unnatural alterations in animal species populations may occur
as a result of all silviculture practices. Logging activities
and the supporting road construction result in a loss of soil
fertility and generation, and broken canopy areas from
clearcutting, the former resulting in long term habitat
degradation and the latter resulting in habitat fragmentation.
As logging is further mechanized, the equipment used to haul
lumber leaves behind skid trails. Construction of trails,
landings, and haul roads results in soil compaction and soil
displacement, which adversely impacts the localized
productivity of the soil.
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Mining
Mining is a terrestrial ecosystem stressor that occurs
throughout the Region. Sand and gravel pits are the most
extensive, and exist in all of the Region's ecosystems. Other
natural resources mined in the Region include clay, peat,
lime, and coal. The clay mines occur in all Region 5 States
except Wisconsin. Michigan produces approximately 75 percent
of the Region's peat and with the remainder occurring in the
farm belts of the southern tier of States in Region 5
primarily in the southern half of the lower peninsula which is
largely agricultural. Minnesota has the most peat of 48
contiguous States, but production is relatively low, and
existing peat mines are in forested areas. Ohio produces just
over half of the Region's lime, followed by Michigan and
Wisconsin. Most of the lime mining occurs in agricultural
areas. Impacts on forested areas in the Region result from
iron strip mining in Minnesota and Michigan, and underground
and strip mining for coal and clay in southern Ohio, Indiana,
and Illinois. (See Problem Area Appendix 2.) Other mines with
less severe impacts on Region 5 forest land include peat,
copper, pigments, gold, silver, zinc, lead, flourspar, lime,
cement, tripoli, gypsum, and abrasives.
Impacts of mining on agricultural, forest and natural grasslands
ecosystems are severe and often irreversible. The following are
the practices associated with mining that have a degradatory impact
on each of the ecosystems.
o Strip mining, or surface extraction of natural
terrestrial resources.
o Auger and tunnel mining, or underground excavation of
mineral resources.
Strip mining results in the long term or permanent loss of
agricultural and forest ecosystems. Destruction of habitat
occurs through loss of vegetation, wildlife cover and food
sources as well as disruption due to noise and vibration from
blasting. Soil erosion occurs due to barren and sloped
surface soil. Soil compaction and displacement resulting in
the loss of fertility occur due to construction of roadways
and housing to service mines. In addition, there are
contaminated tailings build-up in disposal areas. The
combination of soil erosion, compaction and contamination
result in long term loss of soil fertility. Tailings runoff
potentially cause ground and/or surface water contamination to
be addressed by Point and Non-noint source, and Aggregated
Groundwater problem areas. Air quality impacts from fugitive
dust do not fall within this problem area. Auger and tunnel
mining result in localized loss of surrounding ecosystem land
at mine shaft openings. The other impacts are the same as
those associated with strip mining, except erosion.
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RARE INDIGENOUS ECOSYSTEMS
Prairie
There are currently 162,111 acres of prairie of different
types and qualities remaining in Region 5. Before extensive
settlement, prior to 1850, prairie accounted for 61% of
Illinois, 33% of Minnesota and 6% of Wisconsin, with very
small percentages in the other three Region 5 States. Table
1 displays past and present acreage data for prairie in the
three Region V States where prairie was most prevalent. The
remainder of prairie lands continue to diminish for other land
uses or become degraded or fragmented beyond their
susta inabi1ity.
Table 1 Prairie Acreage
State
Illinois
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Total
Presettlement
21,624,000
18,000,000
2,100,000
41,724,000
Current
10,000
150,000
2111
162,111
% Remaining
0.05
0.83
0.10
0.39
(The data in Table 1 also include wet prairies and wet mesic
prairies, about 25 percent of Wisconsin's acreage and unknown
for the other states, which constitute wetlands and are not
addressed within the terrestrial ecosystems.)
Table 2 Wisconsin Prairie
Prairie Type
Dry Prairie
Dry Mesic Prairie
Mesic Prairie
Total
Presettlement
105,000
630,000
840,000
1,575,000
Current % Remaining
1107
148
89
1344
1.05
0.02
0.01
0.09
Table 2 shows the presettlenient and current acreages of
Wisconsin prairie by terrestrial prairie type. No Regional
compilation of data was available. Each State program differs
in focus and data available.
ECOLOGICAL RISK CHARACTERIZATION
The loss or degradation of natural prairies can only be
assessed as an ecosystem or natural community composed of both
animal and plant species. Loss or degradation occurs not only
with changes in land use but also changes in the structure of
the natural community. The habitat structure is vulnerable to
changes in wildlife and plant populations as well as changes
297
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in the proportions in which they exist. The quality of
prairie is a measure of the health and sustainability of the
habitat.
Physical stressors to the prairie ecosystem include
agriculture, development activities and recreation. In
addition to the primary destruction that results from these
stressors, the unintentional introduction of exotic species of
plants and animals upset the habitat structure. Opportunistic
weeds are hardier than many prairie plant species and compete
effectively for nutrients and soil space. "Established exotic
species are often eradicable because most are opportunists
that reproduce and disperse rapidly and adapt to new
environmental challenges easily," according to Environmental
Quality. 1980. Likewise, exotic animal species upset the food
web by alterring the predator/prey balance.
The shrinking of the geographic areas of prairie exacerbate
declining habitat quality discussed above, as the community
becomes too small to buffer non-prairie species. The habitat
becomes unstable from physical degradation concurrently with
the decreasing reproduction opportunities that result from
reduced population size. For example, in Minnesota, there are
51 prairie reserves, the majority of which are less than 100
acres, which is too small to sustain as an ecosystem. There
is insufficient continuous prairie acres to enable the long-
term survival of species such as prairie chickens, other
prairie bird species, i.e., marbled godwits, badgers and bison
in these areas.
Only 500 acres of tallgrass prairie remain in Minnesota. Rare
prairie plant species include the chestnut-collared longspur,
Sprague's pipit, and the western prairie fringed orchid. These
remnants contain the last remaining tracts of northern
tallgrass prairie in the Midwest and Canada.
Pasture- and rangelands in the Region 5 have provided a refuge
for animals indigenous to prairie, and are sometimes referred
to as "substitute prairie." In 1987, there were 16,406,000
acres of pastureland decreasing by 8.7 percent over the five
year period before. Rangeland is a rarity in the Region, with
157,400 acres in Minnesota in 1987 which decreased 21 percent
over the same period. If this present rate of loss were
extrapolated into the future, rangeland in the Region would be
entirely diminished by the year 2010 further diminishing
habitat suitable for some of the already threatened prairie
animal species.
Dunes
Dunes result from wind and water deposits of lake bottom sand
traveling in counterclockwise currents around the Lakes. This
action of wind and water over a sustained period begins the
natural succession that constitutes the dune ecosystem. The
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dunes are initially stabilized by marram and other indigenous
grasses. The succession continues as the grasses are
supplanted by native wildflowers, which are eventually
replaced by shrubs. Forests end the succession in two phases,
first oak, and then maple and beech. Wildlife species
specific to dunes ecosystems colonize the respective niches
created by the succession of plant communities.
Tracts of dune land occur intermittently along Lake Michigan
shoreline from Manitowoc County in northern Wisconsin, around
the southern tip and up the Michigan coastline to the
northernmost area of the lower peninsula. The width of the
dunes vary according to their location. In Wisconsin, on the
leeward side of Lake Michigan, dunes occupy a relatively
narrow strip of land, 100 to 300 feet wide along the shore.
County acreages of dune land average less than 500 acres. Few
dunes exist along the Illinois shoreline. In Indiana, the the
dunes widen significantly. In the Indiana Dunes National
Lakeshore and Indiana Dunes State Park in Porter County, there
are 980 acres.
Michigan dune lands are by far the largest tracts of dune in
the Region. Located on the windward side of Lake Michigan,
large tracts inland of the lake are comprised of "blown out"
land from the windswept sands, making difficult the
delineation of the actual dunes. Ottawa County in
southwestern Michigan contains over 17,000 acres of dune and
blown out land.
ECOLOGICAL RISK CHARACTERIZATION
The sandy soil of the dunes is naturally unstable, and
continues to shift with the wind. As such, the dune lands are
a unique terrestrial ecosystem that are facing possible
extinction in their natural form due to human encroachment.
Both construction and recreation are stressors to the dune
ecosystem. For development purposes, these lands have been
"stabilized," fundamentally alterring the natural evolution of
the terrain. Unnatural stabilization is accomplished through
introduction of exotic plant species, and by primary physical
alterations including driving beams into the ground and
constructing wind breakers to enable development of homes and
industry. The impact is potentially reversible, but unlikely
because development is located here specifically for the
aesthetic amenities associated with lakeshore/dune property.
Recreation is a stressor to the dune ecosystem. The impacts
resulting from trampling is the displacement of sand and the
exposure of root systems. Recently, severe impacts have
resulted from off-road vehicle recreation leaving ruts and
scars on the dune tracts. The unnatural destabilization of
the plant cover, delays the natural succession through the
loss of vegetation, as well as increasing the area's
vulnerability to noxious weeds. While many exotic species
299
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cannot survive in the shifting sand, weed species, introduced
inadvertantly by recreationers, once established, threaten the
indigenous species. For example, in low lying areas, the
purple loosestrife has replaced the indigenous cattails.
Old Growth Forest
Only a small fraction of original old growth forest remains in
Region 5. The largest tract of old growth forest is in the
Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA) of Minnesota. Other smaller
tracts exist in National and State Parks, and are scattered on
private and public lands throughout the Region. The remaining
old growth is second growth forest that was intially logged
during settlement in the mid- to late-1800s.
ECOLOGICAL RISK CHARATBRIZATION
Physical degradation of old growth forest has impacts similar
to those discussed in relation to commercial forestry but the
ecosystem affected has greater wildlife and plant diversity
and populations. This diversity results in a more intricate
ecosystem structure which, in turn, is more fragile, yet more
stable than that of a new forest ecosystem. The fragile
wildlife-rich ecosystem is more severely impacted by habitat
fragmentation. Other forms of physical disruption including
trampling small plants and soil compaction significantly
impact this complex food web, as well.
Clearing results in localized and peripheral reductions of
plant and animal species. The loss of diversity in forest
ecosystems causes alterations in native animal species
populations. As pioneer tree and undergrowth populations
decline through the reduction of old growth forest, the local
gene pool declines as well, which potentially leaves an entire
species in a localized area more vulnerable to disease. Snags
and rotting logs, crucial life bearers in the old growth
ecosystem, are notably absent in young forests. Species of
concern include the Pileated Woodpecker and various vole
species.
References will be forthcoming.
300
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Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
Problem Area Definition and Description
Stratospheric ozone shields the earth's surface from dangerous ultraviolet
(UVB) radiation, in response to growing scientific evidence, a national and
international consensus has developed that unabated use of CFCs and halons
will result in depletion of stratospheric ozone. To the extent depletion
occurs penetration of UV-B radiation will increase resulting in potential
health and environmental harm, including increased incidence of certain skin
cancers and cataracts, suppression of the immune response system, damage to
crops and aquatic organisms, increased formation of ground-level ozone, and
increased weathering of outdoor plastics.
HUMAN HEAUH RISK ASSESSMENT
Toxicity Assessment
Under current atmospheric conditions the ozone layer blocks most of the
damaging ultraviolet radiation (UV-B) from penetrating the earth's surface.
The major consequences of ozone depletion would be an increase in harmful UV-B
radiation, particularly that in the more damaging region of the UV spectrum.
On the basis of both epidemiological studies that relate to the natural
variation in UV-B exposure to skin cancer incidence and laboratory studies in
which tumors have been induced and promoted by UV-B, researchers have
conclusively demonstrated that both basal and squamous skin cancers are
associated with cumulative exposure to UV-B (NAS, 1984). While infrequently
fatal (somewhat less than 1 percent of cases currently result in fatalities),
these are the two most common types of skin cancer, with approximately 500,000
cases per year (Scotto, 1986). A relatively good understanding exists of
these cancers, with a 1 percent ozone depletion projected to increase basal
skin cancer by 1 to 3 percent and squamous skin cancer by 2 to 5 percent (U.S.
EPA, 1986, based on data in Scotto, 1986).
Melanoma is a less common but far more deadly type of skin cancer. In
1985, there were abour 25,000 cases and 5,000 fatalities in the U.S. (Scotto,
1986). Recent studies of melanoma have tended to reinforce the hypothesis
that UV-B is one of the causes of melanoma, although the relationship appears
much more complex, and is perhaps related to peak and possibly youthful
exposure (EEA, 1985). Recent efforts to quantify this relationship have
produced the following dose-response relationship: a 1 percent ozone depletion
is projected to increase melanoma incidence by 1 to 2 percent and melanoma
fatalities by 0.3 -3 1.5 percent (EPA, 1986, based on data in Scotto, 1986).
Exposure Assessr.—-
Measurements taken over the past several decades of the chemical
ccmpcsiticn of the earth's atacsphere have demonstrated that human activities
are altering its makeup. In particular, the atmospheric concentrations of
CFCs and halons, which destroy stratospheric ozone, have been increasing. For
example, the atncspheric ccr.cantraticns of C7C-11 and 12 have been increasing
305
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at an annual rate of 5 percent during the past decade (WMO, 1986). other
gases which act to slow-or offset the destruction of ozone have also been
increasing. For example, carbon dioxide levels have increased by 25 percent
since the beginning of the industrial revolution (WMD, 1986) and methane
concentrations have increased at an annual rate of 017 parts per million
during the past decade (EPA 1987).
Future changes in atmospheric concentrations of these gases will determine
the net impact on the ozone layer. The scenario used in the 1987 EPA
regulatory iinpact analysis to characterize what would happen absent controls
assumed the following growth rates:
Table 1. - Projected Global Growth Rates for Ozone-Modifying Compounds
1986-1992 1992-2000 2000-2050 2050-2075
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-113
CFC-114
CFC-115
Halon 1211
Halon 1301
HCFC-22
Methyl Chloroform
Carbon Tetrachloride
Carbon dioxide
Nitrous oxide
Methane
4.34
5.32
7.03
4.95
3.20
9.77
3.46
4.37
4.70
4.90
rh
2.71
3.06
4.09
2.79
2.73
4.80
2.20
2.74
2.78
2.91
(z)
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.93
3.16
2.50
2.50
2.50
0.5%/yr
0.2%/yr
(2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
(21
1 Average annual rates in percent.
2 0.017 parts per million/year.
Measurements of changes in atmospheric concentrations of ozone modifying gases
provide only indirect evidence that human activities nay be altering The ozcne
layer. Another method for analyzing the risk cf ozone depletion is the use cf
atmospheric models to project future ozone trends based on assumed changes in
atmospheric levels of ozone modifying gases.
Using the parameterized 1-D model, EFA examined the potential impact of its
trace gases scenarios on ozone depletion. Table 2 shows the results of its
analysis. For the baseline scenario, depletion is projected to begin around
the turn of the century and increase sharply through the next century.
306
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Table 2 - Estimated Ozone Depletion for Baseline Scenario
Year- Percent depletion
2000 1.0
2025 4.6
2050 15.7 '
2075 50.0
For projections of future ozone depletion, the largest quantitative
uncertanties involve assumptions concerning future emissions of CFC's and
other trace gases with respect to modeling the atmospheric consequences of
trace gas growth."tnere exits the possiblity that sane overlooked factor or
oversimplified process has lead to over or under predictions of changes in
ozone.
Human Health Risks Characterization
B
Estimates of UV-45*effects on basal squamcus, and melanoma skin cancer using
race, age, and sex as variables have been presented in An Assessment of the
Risks of Stratospheric Modification. To reflect differences in cuir^fi^ UV
exposure, the assessment split the population into three geographic regions.
For each Region, the current and expected size and age distribution were
projected to the year 2000, based on estimates of migration and birth/death
rtes. After 2,000 these distribution;were held constant. In addition three
difference growth rates (emission scenarios) for ozcr.e modifying compounds
were analyzed.
307
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TABLE 3
Human Health Effects: Central Case
Additional Cumulative Cases and Deaths by Region V Population
(Region V Population Equal to 22 Percent of U.S. Population)
HEALTH EFFECTS
Non-MelancCTP Skin Tumors
Additional Basal Cases
Additional Squmaous
Additional Deaths
Melanon« sir-jn Tumors
Additional Cases
Additional Deaths
POPULATION
ALIVE TODAY*
140,000
85,000
3,600
2,700
900
NUMBERS
BORN 1985-2029"
1,100,000
800,000
30,000
24,000
7,000
NUMBERS
BORN 2030-2074°
3,900,000
2,500,000
30,000
95,000
25,000
a/ Analysis period for health effects: 1985-2074.
b/ Analysis period for health effects: 1985-2118.
c/ Analysis period for health effects: 2030-2164
SOURCE: U.S. EPA (1986), An Assessment of the Risks of Stratospheric
Modification, draft report. Washington, D.C.
308
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TABLE 4
Human Health Effects: Emission Scenarios
Additional Cumulative "cases and Deaths Over Lifetime of People in Region V
Alive Today and Born in the Next 88 Years
HEALTH
EMISSIONS SCENARIOS
Low Central High
Non— Melanoro-*
IVimors
Additional tta<=^i Cases
Additional Squamous Cases
Additional Deaths
350,000 5,100,000 18,000,000
180,000 3,500,000 16,000,000
7,800 140,000 650,000
Melanoma
Additional Cases
Additional Deaths
10,000 120,000 4,200,000
2,500 33,000 110,000
SOURCE: U.S. EPA (1986), An Assessment of the Risks of Stratospheric
Modification draft report. Washington, D.C.
For the Central case emission scenario the report predicts the following
additional cases and deaths per year for the next 88 years:
(1) For non-melanoma skin tumors - 58,000 additional basis cases per year,
39,000 additional squamous cases per year, and 1,600 additional deaths
per year.
(2) For melanoma skin tumors - 1,400 additional cases per year and 300
additional deaths per year.
309
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ECOLDGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
Toxicity Assessment
Plant life, including many commercially important crops, also appear
sensitive to increased UV-B radiation [Teramura, 1987]. Decreases in the
stratospheric ozone column have also been linked to tropospheric ozone
formation, an air pollutant that has well documented deleterious effects on
many crops, with important economic consequences [Heck et al., 1984; Adams,
Hamilton and McCarl, 1986]. These combined UV-B and tropospheric ozone
effects imply that continued stratospheric ozone depletion may impose economic
costs on the agricultural economy.
EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT
/
The six states that form Region V /• Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, 1
Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin contain 121 million Acres of the .nations most
productive farmland. More corn and soybeans are produced here/Than in any
other area in the nation. There are nearly 65 million acres p'f forests /dotted
with Aspen, Birch, VJalnut, Hemlock, Hickory, Maple, Oak, and Evergreens'. The
great lakes contain 94,000 square miles of water where salmon, trout,/walleye,
whitefish, and perch are found. /
ECOLOGICAL RISK CHARACTERIZATION
Plant science research suggests increases in UV-3 may substantially inpact
the yield of important commercial crops, but the evidence is still very
limited. More research has been conducted on the relationship between UV-B
and soybean yields than on the other crops [Teramura, 1987 ]. Over the course
of 5 growing seasons different soybean cultivars were exposed to two levels of
UV-B asserted to correspond to 16 and 23 percent stratospheric ozone
depletion. In some experiments, yield losses of up to 25 percent were
observed for both the 16 and 23 percent depletion levels. At 1987 production
levels this would mean a 6.5 million ton loss in soybean productions in Region
V States. However, there are limitations associated with using these data in
developing dose response relationships. These limitations include drought
effects in two of the five years. Further, some experiments suggest no
statistically significant impact of UV-B on yield, while other observations
suggest an initial increase in yields at the 16 percent level, followed by a
decline at higher depletions. In addition, there are uncertainties in how the
results elicited from specific cultivars should be translated to the mix of
cultivars grown under commercial conditions now and in the future.
Yield adjustments for corn are more limited than for soybeans. Only one
study has found statistically significant yield depressions due to increased
UV-B. Specifically, Eisenstark et al. [1985] report a 7 percent corn yield
reduction at a 23 percent ozone depletion. At 1987 production levels this
would mean a 6.5 million ton loss in corn production in Region V States.
310
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The effects of tropospheric ozone on crop yields are much better
understood. Extensive research by Heck and associates in the NCIAN program
and others have identified a large number of commercially important
agricultural crops that are sensitive to ambient levels of tropospheric ozone.
More work is needed to confirm and quantify the relationship between
stratospheric ozone depletion and tropospheric ozone formation. Additional
information is also needed to solidify the understanding of the relationship
of UV-B radiation of the productivity of forests.
The aquatic resources most effected by UV-B would be phytoplankton and
larvae of several fish species. Fhyoplankton spend much of their time near
the surface of the water (eutrophic zone) and are therefore, exposed to
ultraviolet radiation. A reduction in their productivities would be important
because these plants directly and indirectly provide the food for all fish.
311
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AND GLOBAL WARMING
PROBLEM AREA DEFINITION AND DESCRIPTION
Sinoe the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, human activities have
led to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases1 in the atmosphere.
Scientists have concluded that the increase in greenhouse gases will
eventually change global climate. In 1979, the National Academy of
Sciences estimated that doubling carbon dioxide (CQ^ concentrations
over preindustrial levels would lead to an increase of 1.5 to 4.5°C (2
to 8°F) in global air temperatures. In 1985, the World Meteorological
Organization, the United Nations Environment Programme, and the
International Council of Scientific Unions reaffirmed these estimates.
While the global climate is continuously changing as a result of natural
causes, current greenhouse warming is different from past climate
changes. Not only will temperatures be higher than they have been in
the last 125,000 years, but the rate of temperature change will be
unprecedented. Past climate changes of comparable magnitude have
generally occurred over tens of thousands of years. The change in
temperature resulting from the greenhouse effect, however, is estimated
to take less than a century.
Carbon dioxide, the most abundant greenhouse gas, is responsible for
approximately half of the total anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. Since
the industrial revolution, the concentration of OOj in the atmosphere
has increased 25 percent and continues to increase at a rate of 0.4
percent per year. Fossil-fuel combustion and deforestation are the
primary sources of this increase in atmospheric
Methane in the atmosphere has more than doubled in the past 300 years
and is currently responsible for about 18 percent of anthropogenic
greenhouse forcing. Currently, total methane emissions are increasing
at a rate of 1 percent per year. Agricultural sources, particularly
rice cultivation and livestock, seem to be the most significant
contributors to recent increases in methane concentrations. Other
important sources of methane emissions include landfills, coal seams,
melting permafrost, natural gas exploration and pipeline leakage, and
biomass burning associated with deforestation.
1Gases in the atmosphere allow sunlight (shortwave radiation) to pass
through the air and heat the Earth's surface. The Earth's surface absorbs the
sunlight and emits thermal radiation (longwave radiation) back to the
atmosphere. Several gases in the atmosphere, often referred to as greenhouse
gases, absorb some of the outgoing thermal radiation and heat the atmosphere.
The atmosphere emits thermal radiation, both upward to outer space and
downward to the Earth's surface, further warming the surface. This is known
as the "greenhouse effect".
312
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Chlorofluorocarbons (CPCs) currently acxxxint for about 14 percent of
anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. CPCs are used in refrigerants,
aerosol propellants, foam-blowing agents, and solvents. While efforts
like the "Montreal Protocol" will probably result in a reduction of CPCs
in the future, the total impact of CPCs on the greenhouse effect will
most likely increase for some time because of the long lifetime of these
gases.
Nitrous oxide has increased in concentration by 5 to 10 percent in the
past 200 years and is currently increasing at a rate of 0.25 percent per
year. The cause of this increase is uncertain, but nitrogen-based
fertilizers, land clearing, biomass burning, and fossil-fuel combustion
are all contributors. Oceans are a significant natural source of
nitrous oxide. Including both natural and anthropogenic sources,
nitrous oxide contributes about 6 percent to the enhanced greenhouse
effect.
The contribution of ozone to global wanning was not estimated. However,
it should be noted that both ozone increases in the troposphere and
lower stratosphere and ozone decreases in the upper stratosphere tend to
warm the Earth's surface.
It should also be noted that water vapor is an important natural
greenhouse gas. When the climate warms, more water will evaporate into
the atmosphere from the warmed surface and thus enhance the greenhouse
effect. This, in turn, will result in the production of still more
water vapor through evaporation.
The information presented in this section is primarily based on the
Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation's report entitled "The
Potential Effects of Global Climate Change On The United States". In
this study, regional outputs from three General Circulation Models
(GCMs) were used: the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS); the
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics laboratory (GFDL); and Oregon State
University (OSU). All of these models estimate climate change caused by
a doubling of OQ^ in the atmosphere. The regional estimates of doubled
00^ changes were combined with 1951-1980 climate observations to create
doubled CO^ scenarios. In addition, the GISS model was used to estimate
how climate may change between now and the middle of the next century.
In addition to the GCMs, weather observations from the 1930s were used
to parallel global warming, paleoclimatic warmings were used to provide
evidence of how species respond to climate change, and expert judgement
regarding potential effects was used to supplement the scenarios.
The following results are not predictions, but rather indications of the
impacts that could occur as a result of global warming. The analytic
approaches described above were used as tools to determine the potential
sensitivities and vulnerabilities of systems to climate change.
313
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HUMAN
RISK ASSESSMENT
Human illness (morbidity) and mortality are linked to weather patterns.
A variety of human illnesses show sensitivity to changes in temperature
and/or humidity which accompany changes in season. Stroke and heart
attacks, for example, increase with very cold or very warm weather and
allergic Hjeoaaog such as asthma and hay fever increase in spring and
summer when pollens are released. Mortality rates, particularly for the
elderly and very ill, are influenced by the frequency and severity of
extreme temperatures.
Indirectly, the incidence or severity of respiratory diseases such as
emphysema and asthma are likely to increase due to increases in air
pollution which are frequently associated with climate change.2
Also, the life cycles of disease-carrying insets, such as mosquitos and
ticks, are affected by changes in temperature and rainfall, as well as
by habitat (which is itself sensitive to climate) . If global climate
change results in conditions conducive to supporting larger disease-
carrying insect populations, the incidence of related diseasps may also
increase.
Overall regional increases in mortality and morbidity were not
estimated. A study was performed, however, which projected changes in
mortality certain cities, both with and without acclijnatization. While
these estimates should not be used as predictions of individual city
behavior, they are useful as illustrations of sensitivity. Estimates
for cities in Region V are therefore included as Figure 04-1.
Figure O4-1.
Estimated Future Mortality With and Without
Acclimatization
City
Chicago
Cincinnati
Detroit
Mii,.-teapolis
Number of Deaths Per Season
Summer
Current
173
42
118
46
Without
412
226
592
142
With
835
116
0
235
Winter
Current
46
14
16
5
Without
2
6
2
1
With
96
0
37
0
2Increases in ozone concentrations, in particular, are associated with
increasing temperature. Higher temperatures will speed reaction rates among
chemicals in the atmosphere, causing higher concentrations of ozone. Also,
longer summers will result in longer "ozone seasons" and thus a greater
potential for ozone problems.
314
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ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
TOXICXTY jtftfpypHfTrr
If current trends continue, the rate of climate change could be much
quicker than rates of natural migration and adaptation. Climate zones
may shift hundreds of miles northward, and animals and especially plants
may have difficulty migrating northward rapidly enough. The presence of
urban areas, agricultural lands, and roads would restrict habitats and
block many migratory pathways. Inhabited ranges and populations of many
species are likely to decrease, and in many cases become extinct. The
effects could last for centuries and would be virtually irreversible.
Climate change may significantly alter forest composition and reduce the
land area of healthy forests. Higher temperatures may lead to drier
soils in many parts of the United States. Consequently, trees that need
wetter soils may die, and their seedlings could also have difficulty
surviving these conditions. Studies of the potential effects of climate
change on forests predict northward shifts in ranges and significant
changes in composition, although specific results vary depending on
sites and scenarios used.
Higher temperatures may lead to more aquatic growth, such as algal
blooms, and decreased mixing of lakes (longer stratification). This
would deplete oxygen levels in shallow areas of the Great Tqy«a<; and make
them less habitable for fish. Fish in small lakes and streams may be
unable to escape temperatures beyond their tolerances, or their habitats
may simply disappear. Warmer temperatures could also exceed the thermal
tolerance of many marine fish and shellfish in some southern locations.
Higher global temperatures will expand ocean water, melt some mountain
glaciers, and may eventually cause polar ice sheets to discharge ice.
Sea level rise due to global warming is generally estimated to range
between 0.5 and 2.0 meters (1.5 to 7 feet) by 2100. Historically,
wetlands have kept pace with a slow rate of sea level rise. Some
marshes and swamps, however, will probably be unable to adjust to this
rate of sea level rise. While some wetlands will be able to survive by
migrating inland, it is estimated that for a 1-meter rise, 26 to 66
percent of wetlands would be lost, even if wetland migration were not
blocked.
In most regions of the country, climate change alone could reduce
dryland yields of corn, wheat, and soybeans with site-to-site losses
ranging from negligible amounts to 80 percent. These decreases would be
primarily the result of higher temperatures, which would shorten a
crop's life cycle. Even under the more extreme climate change
scenarios, the production capacity of U.S. agriculture was estimated to
be adequate to meet domestic needs. However, a decline in crop
production of this magnitude would reduce exports, which could
significantly impact food-importing nations.
315
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Higher temperatures will speed reaction rates among chemicals in the
atmosphere, causing higher concentrations of ozone in many urban areas.
In addition, the length of the summer season would be increased, which
implies an increase in the "ozone season". Although the inpacts of
higher temperatures on acid rain have not been analyzed, it is likely
that sulfur and nitrogen would oxidize more rapidly under higher
temperatures.
Due to the nature of global warming, the entire region and, in fact, the
entire Earth may be affected by climate change.
ECODDGICAL RISK CHMWCTERIZRIION
In "The potential Effects Of Global Climate Change On The United
States", the effects of global warming on various regions of the country
were studied. In the "Great Lakes" region, impacts on lakes and aquatic
ecosystems, forests, and agriculture (among other topics) were studied.
As indicated in Figure O4-2, the "Great Lakes" study area included all
of Region V. The results of this portion of the report will therefore
be used to characterize the impacts of global warming on Region V.
Figure 04-2. Great Lakes study area.
Cornwall
INDIANA j^- OM|0
PENNSYLVANIA
316
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All three GCMS that provide the basis for the clijnate change scenarios
show dramatic increases in temperature for the great lakes region. The
seasonal and annual temperature and precipitation patterns predicted by
the models are depicted in Figure 04-3. The combination of significant
increases in temperature and relatively small increases in precipitation
make GFDL the most severe scenario of the three. OSU is the mildest,
due to the smaller increases in temperature; GISS falls in the middle.
Figure O4-3.
Average change in temperature and
precipitation in GISS, GFDL, and OSU
ntriels.
A. Temperatur*
B. Precipitation
1L-- '
NC - No Cltangt
and Aquatic Ecosstems
Global climate change could affect the great lakes by lowering lake
levels, reducing ice cover, and degrading water quality in rivers and
shallow areas of the lakes. It is estimated that higher temperatures
may cause lake levels to fall by 0.5 to 2.5 meters (1.7 to 8.3 feet) .
(A 1 meter drop would result in average levels below historic lows. )
Even if precipitation increases, lake levels would continue to fall
because higher temperatures would reduce the snowpack and accelerate
evaporation. It should be noted that estimates of lake level drop are
sensitive to assumptions about evaporation and that under certain
limited conditions, lake levels could rise.
317
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Wanner winters are expected to reduce ice cover on the great lakes, with
ice formation generally limited to near-shore and shallow areas. In
addition, the duration of ice cover on the lakes would be reduced by 1
to 3 months. This reduction in ice cover could have negative impacts
because the ice protects sane aquatic life, such as whitefish, and
protects shorelines against the erosive inpact of high-energy waves.
Higher temperatures may lead to more aquatic growth, such as algal
blooms, and increase stratification. The reduced turnover of the lakes
could disrupt mixing of oxygen and nutrients, possibly affecting the
abundance of life in the lower and upper layers of the lakes. It is
likely that oxygen levels in shallow areas of the Great Takes would also
be depleted, thus make these areas less habitable for fish. In
addition, fish in small lakes and streams may be unable to escape
temperatures beyond their tolerances, or their habitats may simply
Forests
The composition and abundance of forests could change significantly.
Higher temperatures and lower soil moisture could reduce forest biomass
in dry sites in central Michigan by 77 to 99 percent. These mixed
hardwood and oak forests could become oak savannas or grasslands. In
northern areas like Minnesota, boreal and cedar bog forests could became
treeless bogs, and mixed northern hardwood and boreal forests in upland
areas could become all northern hardwoods. It is anticipated that
productivity may decrease on dry sites and bogland sites, but may
increase on some well-drained wet sites. Softwood species may be
eliminated and replaced by hardwoods, such as oak and maple. It is
uncertain whether forests in the southern part of the region will die
back leaving grasslands or whether new species will be able to migrate
or will be transplanted and flourish. In addition, the rate of forest
migration is likely to be slower than the climate change. Consequently,
the total range of many species would be reduced.
Agriculture
Studies indicate that temperature and precipitation changes could reduce
crop yields throughout the region, with the exception of the
northernmost latitudes where yields could increase depending on rainfall
availability. The reduction in yields in the southern portion of the
region would primarily result from the shortened growing season caused
by extreme summer heat. Production in the north would increase largely
due to a longer frost-free season which would result in increased
yields.
Corn yields throughout most of the region could decrease from 3 to 60
percent depending on climate and water regime (dryland or irrigated) .
It should be noted that yields in Duluth, for example, may increases as
much as 49 to 86 percent. While current corn yields are lower in Duluth
than in more southern sites, increases in yield of this magnitude could
318
-------
result in a dryland yield equal to other sites and an irrigated yield
exceeding other locations.
Dryland soybean yields are expected to decrease by 3 to 65 percent
throughout all but the northernmost part of the region. There dryland
yields are estimated to decrease by 6 percent under the GTOL scenario,
but increase by 109 percent under the wetter GISS scenario. Irrigated
yields in the north are estimated to increase by 96 to 135 percent.
Even with percent increases in yield of this magnitude for northern
areas, Duluth may still have yields lower than in areas to the south.
319
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References
United States Environmental Protection Agency. The Potential Effects of
cinhai climate Chancre On The United States. Office of Air Policy
Planning, and Evaluation. December 1989. EPA Publication No.
EPA-230-05-89-050.
320
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RADIATION CJIMKR TENS RADON
PROBLEM AREA DEFTNTTiaN AND DESCRIPTION
The evaluation of this problem area assesses some of the health risks
associated with exposure to ionizing and non-ionizing radiation. The
evaluation concentrates on sources of radiation exposure for which USEPA
currently has regulatory authority or could potentially have regulatory
authority. Sources of ionizing radiation treated here include consumer
products, building materials, and industrial and commercial air
emissions from sources such as power plants, process waste piles,
hospitals, and facilities which process and use nuclear materials.
Sources of non-ionizing radiation qualitatively evaluated as part of
this problem area include sources of radio frequency, microwave, and
electromagnetic radiation. This includes television and radio
transmitters, radar, electrical power lines, and radiation from home
appliances and wiring. The health impact of natural background
radiation and medical exposures (x-rays, radiation therapy) are
estimated as part of this problem area only for the purpose of comparing
with the sources of ionizing radiation discussed above. Radiation
resulting from nuclear accidents is included and the accidental releases
problem area and exposure to UV resulting from ozone depletion is
included in the stratospheric ozone problem area.
HUMAN TraaTfm RISK ASSESSMENT
Exposure to ionizing radiation other than radon and non-ionizing
radiation is ubiquitous in our technological society. Due to the
significant differences in the state of our knowledge regarding the
effects of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation the sources and impacts
of each are addressed separately.
IONIZING RADIATION
'IXJXXCXTY Ag
Ionizing radiation refers to radiation that strips electrons from atoms
in the medium through which it passes. The adverse effects of exposure
to ionizing radiation, and hence of radioactive materials, are
carcinogenicity, mutagenicity, and taratogenicity. From the perspective
of total societal risk, cancer induction and genetic mutations are the
most important effects. Both cancer induction and genetic mutations are
believed to be stochastic effects; i.e., the probability of these
effects (the risk of occurrence) increases with dose, but the severity
of the effect is independent of dose. Furthermore, there is no
convincing evidence of a threshold of exposure below which the risks are
zero.
Evidence of the deleterious effects of exposure to ionizing radiation
comes from both human epidemiology and animal studies. The human
epidemiologic data for cancer induction are extensive. Thus, as the EPA
noted in the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) supporting the recent
radionuclide NESHAES (National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air
Pollutants) rulemaking, "the risk can be estimated to within an order of
magnitude with a high degree of confidence. Perhaps for only one other
321
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carcinogen - tobacco smoke - is it possible to estimate risks more
reliably." (EPA89a)
The unit used in radiation dose assessment is the rad (radiation
absorbed dose). One rad is the dose corresponding to the absorption of
100 ergs per gram of tissue. Since not all forms of ionizing radiation
produce the same effect per rad, the rem is used as the unit of dose
equivalence. For materials taken into the body, the dose will be
delivered over the period that the material remains in the body. Thus,
the convention has been established to integrate the dose over the
entire period that the material will remain in the body and assign the
total dose to the year of exposure, resulting in the committed dose
equivalent (rem). Finally, since irradiation of the organs and tissues
of the body may not be uniform, the radiation protection community has
introduced the concept of the effective whole-body dose equivalent (rem
FJDE). The EDE is calculated by weighting the doses received by the
various organs by risk based factors and then summing the weighted organ
doses to derive the EDE. The collective population exposure is given in
person-rem EDE, and is derived by simply summing the exposures of the
individuals in the population. In this report, the doses are given in
rem or millirem (1/1,000th of a rem) EDE for individuals and person-rem
EDE for populations. The quantification of radiation exposures and
resulting cancer risks are based on the following estimates:
Lifetime exposure to 3 mrem/y EDE = IE-4 lifetime fatal cancer risk;
1E+6 perscn-rem/year EDE = 400 fatal cancers/year; and
Total Cancer Incidence/Fatal Cancer Incidence = 2, a 50 percent
mortality rate once a cancer has been expressed.
The risk factors used in this report are consistent with those used by
the EPA in the recent radionuclide NESHAPS rulemaking (EPA89a). They
are based on a linear extrapolation of the dose response exhibited by
the Japanese A-bomb survivors (and other human epidemiologic evidence),
using the relative risk projection model (primarily), and assuming that
there is no risk threshold. The EPA believes that the estimated fatal
cancer risk of 400 per 1E+6 person-rem EDE represents a best estimate,
and that the actual risk likely lies within the range of 120 to 1,200
fatal cancers per 1E+6 person-rem EDE. For radiation exposure of the
whole body the total incidence of cancer does not exceed the incidence
of fatal cancer by more than a factor of two. It should be noted the
risk coefficient has been extrapolated from high doses and high
dose rates. At the lower doses and dose rates associated with levels of
exposure in the environment, the possibility that the actual risk could
be zero cannot be ruled out on epidemiologic grounds due to the high
rate of cancer. The current consensus of scientific opinion is that no
threshold exists.
EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT AND HUMAN HEALTH RISK CHARACTERIZATION
Sources of ionizing radiation are grouped into four major
classifications: natural background; occupational exposures; medical
exposures; and roanmade and technologically enhanced sources. The
estimated exposures and risk associated with the specific components or
322
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facilities within each of these categories are summarized in Tables 1-4,
respectively. The basis for the estimates are discussed in the
following sub-sections.
Natural Background Radiation
The doses and potential risks associated with exposure to naturally
occurring background radiation and naturally occurring radionuclides
have been estimated in a number of national and international reports
(EPAB1, NCRP87, UNSCEAR82). These exposures are divided into three
components; external exposure to terrestrial radiation, external
exposure to cosmic radiation, and internal exposure to naturally
occurring radionuclides. Table 1 presents the individual and population
exposures, and the resulting cancer risks from these sources. Exposures
to radon and radon progeny are excluded as they are included in the
Indoor Radon Problem Area. Exposures and risks to technologically
enhanced sources of naturally occurring radiation are addressed in the
section on Manmade and Technologically Enhanced Sources.
The estimated external exposures include shielding correction factors
for the time spent indoors and take into consideration the additional
indoor exposures associated with construction materials that contain
elevated levels of naturally occurring radionuclides. The dose
contribution from construction materials is also included in the section
on Manmade and Technologically Enhanced Sources.
The internal doses are the effective whole body dose equivalent from
naturally occurring internal emitters, as reported in NCRP 93 (NCRP87).
The values do not include the lung dose from radon and radon progeny. A
constant value for internal dose is used, representing the national
average. It was not considered feasible to estimate differences in
internal dose among states. In addition, other than radon progeny,
which are not addressed in this report, the dominant contributor to the
internal dose from naturally occurring radionuclides is K-40, which is
under homeostatic control and, as a result, does not vary significantly
among individuals.
The population doses were estimated using published values of the
projected 1990 population (BC87), as the 1990 census data were not
available for this report.
323
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Tfble 1: Natural Backyard Radiation - Sumery of Individual and Population Exposures and Risks
Individuals
Population
State/Source
Illinois
Cosmic*
Terrestrialr
Internal
Totals4
Indiana
Cosmic
Terrestrial
Internal
Totals
Michigan
Cosmic
Terrestrial
Internal
Totals
Minnesota
Cosmic
Terrestrial
Internal
Totals
Ohio
Cosnric
Terrestrial
Internal
Totals
Wisconsin
Cosmic
Terrestrial
Internal
Totals
Region 5 Totals
Average
Lifetime Fatal
Cancer Risk
9E-4
9E-4
1E-3
3E-3
9E-4
1E-3
1E-3
3E-3
9E-4
1E-3
1E-3
3E-3
9E-4
8E-4
1E-3
3E-3
3E-3
9E-4
9E-4
1E-3
3E-3
9E-4
1E-3
1E-3
3E-3
3E-3
Average
Exposure
(mrem/y)
27.4
26.6
38
92.0
27.6
28.7
38
94.3
27.6
29.2
38
94.8
28.5
25.1
38
91.6
27.7
28.0
38
93.7
27.8
29.2
38
95.0
94.0
Population
at Risk1
11,612,000
11,612,000
11,612,000
11,612,000
5,550,000
5,550,000
5,550,000
5,550,000
9,293,000
9,293,000
9,293,000
9,293,000
4,324,000
4,324,000
4,324,000
4,324,000
10,791,000
10,791,000
10, 791, 000
10,791,000
4,808,000
4,803,000
4,803,000
4,808,000
46,378,000
Exposure
(person- rem/y)
3.2E+5
3.1E+5
4.4E+5
1.1E+6
1.5E+5
1.6E+5
2.1E+5
5.2E+5
2.6E+5
2.7E+5
3.5E+5
8.8E+5
1.2E+5
1.1E+5
1.6E+5
4.0E+5
3.0E+5
3.0E+5
4.1E+5
1.0r*6
1.3E+5
1.4E*5
1.8E+5
4.6E+5
4.4E+6
Fatal
Cancers
per Year
127
124
177
428
61
64
84
209
103
109
141
352
49
43
66
158
120
121
164
404
53
56
73
183
1744
Total
Cancers
per Year
255
247
353
855
123
127
169
419
205
217
283
7D5
99
87
131
317
239
242
328
809
107
112
146
365
3488
1 1990 population projections taken from "Table No. 27. State Population Projections: 1987-2010" in the 1
Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1988. 108th Edition. Washington. D.C.. 1987.
2 Fran Table 1 of EPA81. The cosmic ray and terrestrial doses include shielding.
3 From Table 2-4 of MCRP Report Ho. 93, "Ionizing Radiation Exposure of the Reputation of the united States," 1987. The internal
dose is the effective Uwle bod/ dose from naturally occurring internal emitters. However, it daes not include the lung dose
fran the irhalation of redan and its progeny. For the purpose of this analysis, it is assured that the internal dose does rot
vary significantly among locations. This is a reasonable assumption since the dose is predominantly due to K-40, Uiich is
under hcmeostatic control and does not vary significantly among individuals.
4 Totals may not add cue to independent rounding.
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The differences among states in rhe individual external
exposures reflect differences in the external dose rates due to (1) the
differences in the concentrations of naturally occurring radionuclides
in soils, and (2) the differences in cosmic radiation associated with
different elevations and latitudes. The differences among the states
within the region are relatively small primarily because the comparisons
are made on the basis of the average conditions within each state in the
region. However, the differences in terrestrial radiation, and, in some
cases cosmic radiation, among areas of a smaller scale within a state,
such as at the county level or smaller, can be substantial. Ihis occurs
because local differences in soil type and geology can be large and
significantly affect the terrestrial radiation fields. In addition, the
cosmic ray field atop a mountain is significantly different than in a
valley. Both types of differences tend to average out when looking at
state wide averages (population risks), but can be substantial on a
smaller (individual risk) scale. Further, when considering that people
spend different amounts of time indoors, and that the structural
material of a building can affect the indoor radiation fields, the
variability in external dose can be even greater, perhaps on the order
of 10 to 20 mrem/yr, depending on the structural material of the
building alone (UNSCEAR82).
Occupational Radiation Exposures
A wide variety of Federal and State agencies regulate occupational
exposure to ionizing radiation, with uniformity of worker protection
established by Federal Guidance developed by the EPA and issued by the
President. Current Federal Guidance (FR87) establishes a basic limit of
5 rem EDE per year for occupational exposure, and Federal agencies with
regulatory responsibility are in the process of conforming their
regulations to this recommended limit.
The major classes of occupational exposure include: Department of
Energy (DOE) weapons production of research facilities; nuclear fuel
cycle facilities; Department of Defense (DOD) facilities; non-fuel cycle
facilities licensed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) or
the Agreement States to use byproduct, source, and special nuclear
materials (this includes hospitals and other medical facilities); air
transportation; and mineral extraction and processing industries that
process materials with elevated concentrations of naturally occurring
uranium or thorium and their progeny.
In this report, estimates of the exposures and cancer risks to workers
at each of these types of facilities except the mineral processing
facilities are given. The lack of data for mineral extraction and
processing industries is not believed to present a significant
underestimate of the risks, as the primary exposure is to radon and its
progeny which are not included in this problem area.
Table 2 presents the estimated exposures and risks from occupational
exposure. For uranium fuel cycle and DOE facilities, the estimates are
presented by site, and represent exposures of individuals with
measurable exposures. The values given for nuclear power plants
represent averages of 5 years of exposure data. Such average data
provide a better estimate of collective risk as they capture the
325
-------
variations in exposure during different phases of operations, e.g., at
power, normal refueling, and special maintenance. For nuclear power
reactors it should also be noted that the doses are assigned to the unit
where the exposure was incurred. Due to the widespread use of temporary
workers during outages, the individuals receiving such exposures may or
may not reside in the region. For medical, DOD, and other NRC-licensed
facilities, and air transportation crews, the exposure data are only
available in terms of national totals. The exposures and resulting
risks were apportioned to the region on the basis of population. The
exposure estimates for each of these components, with the exception of
air transportation crews, are based on measured exposures.
Table 2: Occupational Radiation Exposure - Sunny of Irtfividal and Population Benares and Risks
Indstry/Site
Individuals
Average
Lifetime Fatal
Cancer Risk
Average
Exposure
(mrero'y)
Population
at Risk1
Peculation
Exposure
(person- reVy)
Fatal
Cancers
per Year
Total
Cancers
per Year
Nuclear fuel Cycle
Power Reactors
Big Rode Point fl
BraicUxd 1 & 2°
Byron'
D. C. Cook 1 & 2
Davis-Besse
Dresden-2 & 3
Fermi 2s
Keuau-ee 7
La Salle 1 & 27
Monticello
Palisades
Perry 18
Prairie Island 1 & 2
Pt. Beach 1 & 2
Quad Cities 1 & 2
Zicn 1 & 2
Reactor Totals4
Other Fuel Cycle
1E-2
8E-3
2E-3
7E-3
2E-3
2E-2
1E-2
5E-3
7E-3
1E-2
6E-3
1E-2
5E-3
1E-2
2E-2
1E-2
1E-1
Spent
Fuel Storage Inst. 2E-2
Fuel Cycle Totals
DCE Facilities
Monsanto Research
Mart Lab.
Argore Nat'l Lab.
Chicago Operations
Fermi Nat'l Lab.
Martin Marietta
Portsmouth
RMI Cotpeny
1E-2
3E-2
2E-3
4E-3
1E-3
1E-3
4E-3
580
470
100
430
90
940
660
290
420
890
390
660
310
. 660
1,160
780
590
1,060
594
1,720
120
260
60
60
230
390
2,140
1,081
1,766
1,444
2,723
1,336
516
1,498
1,015
1,624
1,336
824
1.119
1,686
1,510
22,008
132
22.140
616
128
1,087
470
195
2.3E+2
1.0E+3
1.1E+2
7.6E+2
1.3E+2
2.6E+3
8.8E+2
1.5E+2
6.3E+2
9.0E+2
6.2E+2
8.8E+2
2.6E+2
7.4E+2
2.0E+3
1.2E*3
1.3E+4
1.4E+2
1.5E+2
7.4E+1
3.3E+1
6.5E+1
2.8E+1
4.5E+1
0.05
0.2
0.02
0.2
0.03
0.5
0.2
0.03
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2'
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.2
2.6
0.03
2.6
0.03
0.02
0.007
0.01
0.006
0.009
0.09
0.4
0.04
0.3
0.05
1.0
0.4-
0.06
0.3
0.4
03
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.8
0.5
5.2
0.06
53
0.06
0.03
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.02
326
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Table 2 (cent): Occupational Radiation Exposure - Sunnary of Individual and Population Exposures and Risls
Individuals
Peculation
Average
Lifetime Fatal
IndLEtry/Site Cancer Risk
Feed Materials
Production Center
DOE Totals
DO) Facilities5
tRC-Licensed Facilities
Medical
Facilities5
Manufacturing &
Distribution
Other Users'
Industrial ,
Radiography^
MC Totals
Air Transport*
Region 5 Totals
5E-3
3E-3
2E-3
3E-3
5E-3
4E-3
8E-3
3E-3
1E-2
5E-3
Average
Exposure
(mnaVy)
310
182
90
150
270
210
450
175
630
315
Population
at Risk1
568
3.152
11,000
51,000
2,200
23,000
1,020
77,220
18,550
128,910
Exposure
(person- rem/y)
1.8E+2
5.85*2
9.9E+2
7.7E+3
5.9E+2
4.8E+3
4.6E+2
1.4E+4
1.2E*
4.1EH
Fatal
Cancers
per Year
0.04
0.12
0.2
1.5
0.1
1.0
0.09
2.7
23
8.1
Total
Cancers
per Year
0.07
0-24
0.4
3.0
0.2
2.0
0.2
5.4
4.6
16
1 Based on rurber of workers with measurable exposures.
2 Data represents a 5-year average, 1982-1966, of data presented in BR89.
3 No data available, estimates based on average* values for BURs.
4 Totals may rot add due to independent rounding.
5 Based on data in Table 4 of EPAS&a, estimates are for exposures in 1960.
6 Based on data in NCRP87.
7 Data referenced in HJREG 0713 but represents less than 5 operating years.
8 Mo data exists in MJREG 0713 therefore ft* and FVR 5-year average values were used (Brooks MJREG 0713).
For air crews, the exposures are estimated based on average exposure of
0.7 mrem/hr to enhanced cosmic radiation, and 900 hours/year exposure.
The value of 0.7 mrem/hr corresponds to the dose rate at 39,000 feet,
the typical cruising altitude of modern jets, and reflects the NCRP's
recent revision of the quality factor for neutrons. The value does not
take into account the increased dose rates associated with either solar
flares or polar latitudes. Solar flares, which range from 2 to 12 per
year and last from a few minutes to a week, can increase the dose rate
by several hundred times (BA89). Nine hundred hours/year exposure
represents the upper range of 620 - 900 air hours per year derived from
data presented in EAA90 for flight crews.
Two additional points needed to be made regarding the estimated risks.
The first is that the number of fatal cancers are estimated using 200
fatal cancers per 1E+6 person-rem. This approximate value, one-half the
value used for estimating risks to the general population, may be
327
-------
derived from Table V-26 in NAS80 and reflects two facts. One, that for
the continuous lifetime exposures on which the estimate of 400 fatal
cancers per 1E+6 person-rem is based, approximately 60 percent of the
risk is associated with exposures received in the first 19 years of life
(EPA89a). And two, virtually all occupationally exposed individuals
are 18 years of age or older.
The second point concerns the lack of estimates of maximum individual
risk. Unfortunately, the need to protect the confidentiality of the
workers makes it impossible to derive cumulative exposures for
individuals. An upper-bound for maximum individual risk can be obtained
by assuming 47 years of exposure at the 5 rem per year limit. Ihis
would result in a total exposure of 235 rem. Using a risk coefficient
one-half that used for members of the general population, this would
correspond to a maximum lifetime fatal cancer risk of roughly 8E-2.
Medical Radiation Exposures
Radiation is one of the principal tools of diagnostic medicine and of
cancer therapy. Thus, the exposure is deliberate and its benefits are
thought to outweigh the potential risks. The exposure data presented in
Table 3 for medical radiation are derived from NORP Report No. 93
(NCRP87). Since there are no documented statistical data or citations
in the literature which would allow for the calculation of medical
exposures by state or region, the collective exposures and cancer risks
have been apportioned simply on the basis of population. This is
believed to be reasonably accurate, since medical health care practices
do not differ greatly among different regions of the country.
Table 3: Medical Radiation Exposure - Sumery of Individual and Population Exposures and Risks
Indivicuals
Type of Exposure
Medical X-Rays
Average
Lifetime Fatal
Cancer Risk
4E-5
Radicpharrcaceuticals 2E-4
Region 5 Totals
Average
Exposure
(nran)
87
320
Population
at Risk
19,500,000
185,000
19,6ffi,000
Peculation
Exposure
(person- rem/y)
1.7t*
5.9E+4
1.8B6
Fatal
Cancers
per Year
679
24
702
Total
Cancers
per Year
1,357
47
1,405
1 Lifetime risk of a single average exposure, see text.
2 Totals may not add de to independent ranting.
Extreme caution should be exercised in interpreting the risk estimates
provided for medical exposures. The estimates of the lifetime
individual fatal cancer risk are based on a single average exposure, as
no data are available on cumulative individual exposures. In addition,
the lifetime fatal cancer risk and the estimates of excess cancers are
based on the risk coefficients for the general population. However, the
age distribution of those receiving medical exposures differs from that
of the general population, being highly skewed towards older
individuals. While older persons are generally believed to be more
radio-sensitive, actual cancer induction may actually be lower due to
328
-------
the long latency period of cancer induction. Thus, some of the
estimated excess cancers may never actually be expressed due to the
death of the individual from other causes.
Manmade and Technologically Enhanced Sources
Exposures to manmade and technologically enhanced sources includes
exposures of member of the general public who live in the vicinity of
the sources which were identified above as causing occupational
exposures and/or those members of the public who travel by airplane.
The EPA's Office of Radiation Programs has estimated the exposures to
both nearby individuals and the populations within 80-km of sources that
are felt to pose the greatest hazard of releasing radioactive materials
into the ambient air (EFA84b and EPA89b). The estimates of exposure and
risk that are presented in Table 4, with the exception of air travel and
construction materials, are derived from those estimates and only
include exposure to effluents released to air. Exposure to radioactive
materials via liquid pathways is not estimated, but is roughly
comparable to exposures to radioactive materials released to air from
industrial sources.
Table 4: Nanaade and Technologically Enhanced Radiation -
Sunery of Individual and Peculation Exposures and Risks
Individuals
Industry/Site
Range of
Lifetime Fatal
Cancer Risk
Maxinun
' Exposure
Peculation
Population
at Risk1
Exposure
(person-ran/y)
Fatal
Cancers
per Year
Total
Cancers
per Year
Nuclear Fuel Cycle
Uraniun Conversion Operations
Allied Chemical
Metropolis, IL < 1E-6 - 3E-5
Pouer Reactors
Byron 1*
Quad-Cities
< 1E-6 - 3E-6
.9E-1
9E-2
1 &2*
Dresden 2 & 3*
LaSalle 1 & 2*
Zien 1 & 2*
Donald C. Cock
1 & 2*
Big Rock Point*
Fermi 2*
Palisades*
Hsnticellc*
Prairie Island
1 S2*
Davis-Besse 1*
Perry 1*
Keuaunee*
La Crcsse*
< 1E-6 -
< 1E-6 -
< 1E-6 -
< 1E-6 -
< 1E-6 -
< 1E-6 -
< 1E-6 -
< 1E-6 -
< 1E-6 -
< 1E-6 -
< 1E-6 -
< 1E-6 -
< 1E-6 -
< 1E-6 -
1E-5
1E-5
1E-5
cE-6
6E-6
5E-6
5E-6
3E-6
SE-6
c€-6
3E-6
5E-6
3E-6
5E-6
4E-1
4E-1
4E-1
2E-1
2E-1
2E-1
2£-1
9E-2
2E-1
2E-1
9E-2
2E-1
9E-2
2E-1
500,000
2.0E+0
2.0E+0
6.0W
6.05+0
6.0E+0
4.C&K)
4.05+0
3.0E+0
3.0W
2.0E+0
3.0E«0
4.0E+C
2.0W
3.0E*Q
2.05*0
3.05+0
8E-4
7E-4
2E-3
2E-3
2E-3
1E-3
1E-3
1E-3
1E-3
7E-4
1E-3
1E-3
7E-4
1E-3
7E-4
1E-3
2E-3
1E-3
4E-3
4E-3
4E-3
2E-3
2E-3
2E-3
2E-3
1E-3
2E-3
2E-3
1E-3
2E-3
1E-3
2E-3
329
-------
Table 4 (cent): Naraade and Technologically Enhanced Radiation
Sunary of Individual and Population Erasures and Risks
Irdivi duals
Population
Range of
Lifetime Fatal
Industry/Site Cancer Risk
Point Beech
1 S2* <
BraioVeod 1 & 2* <
Reactor Totals3 <
Other Fuel Cycle -
Fuel Cycle Totals <
DCE Facilities1
Reactive Metals
Ashtabula, OH <
Feed Materials
Production Center
Femald, OH <
Hard Facility
Miamsburg, OH <
Portsmouth Gaseous
Diffusion Plant
Piketcn, OH
Argome National
Laboratory
Argome, IL
Battelle Memorial
Institute
Coluitxs, OH
Fermi National
1E-6 - 6E-6
1E-6 - 6E-6
1E-6 - 1E-5
Maximjn
EjQosure
(mraVy)
2E-1
2E-1
4E-1
Population Exposure
at Risk (person- ren/y)
40,800,000
4.0BO
4.0E+0
6.1E+1
Fatal
Cancers
per Year
1E-3
1E-3
2E-2
Total
Cancers
per Year
2E-3
2E-3
5E-2
None Assessed in Region 5
1E-6 - 3E-5
1E-6 - 4E-5
1E-6 - 3E-5
1E-6 - 1E-6
< 1E-6
-------
Table 4 (cent): Harnade and Technologically Enhanced Radiatim
Sunny of Individual and Pcculaticn Exposures and Risks
Indivicuals
Industry/Site
Range of
Lifetime Fatal
Career Risk
Haxinun
Exposire
(nreiVy)
Peculation
Pcculaticn Exposure
at Risk (person-rem/y)
Fatal Total
Cancers Cancers
per Year per Year
Uet Process
Fertilizer Plants* < 1E-6 - 3E-6
Air Transport
Construction
Materials
Region 5 Totals
not estimated
not estimated
< 1E-6 - > 4E-5
9E-2 1,400,000 2.0E+0 8E-4 2E-3
46,330,000 6J&4 26 52
46,380,000 1.6E+5 65 130
1E+0 46,380,000 2.3E+5 91 182
1 Population within 80-km
2 Risks are ***** on reference ft* and PUR in EPA85b. Pcculaticn at risk has been limited to the state population.
3 Totals may not add due to independent rounding.
* Model or reference facility.
The estimates for the exposure of the general population to industrial
sources are based on both site-specific assessments and extrapolations
from reference facilities. Where reference facilities provide the
basis, the site name is marked with an asterisk (*). For actual
facilities, the exposure of the maximally exposed individual reflects
either an actual off-site residence, or the fencepost exposure
reference facilities were Enhanced Radiation -
used, the maximum exposure is based on an individual assumed at a close-
in location (typically 150 m) in the predominant wind direction. Where
the original assessment used a reference facility, collective popula-
tions are estimated using the generic population distributions that were
assessed and the number of facilities in the region. If the projected
population obtained in this manner exceeded the regional population, the
population at risk was constrained to the regional population.
In assessing the exposures and risks due to air travel, only collective
exposures and risks are given. The collective risk is based on 0.7
mrem/hr, 1.5 hours/trip, and a total of 340 million trips/year (NCRP87).
The collective dose was then apportioned to the region on the basis of
population.
The projection of cancer and deaths resulting from construction
materials is based on the national average dose rate of 3.5 mrem/yr.
applied to the population of the region as a whole (NAS80).
331
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NON-IONIZING RADIATION
TQXrCITY ASSESSMENT, EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT, AND HDMAN HEALTH BISK
CHARACTERIZATION
The biological effects of non-ionizing radiation are not well
understood. At this time, the risks and impacts associated with manmade
non-ionizing radiation found in the environment cannot be accurately
assessed.
Non-ionizing radiation is part of the electromagnetic spectrum which
does not strip electrons from atoms creating ions. This non-ionizing
radiation consists of a broad range of electromagnetic phenomena
including long-wavelength ultra-violet light, visible light, infra-red
light, microwaves, radio-^waves, and the electric and magnetic fields
associated with electrical power and equipment (60 Hertz).
This type of radiation has long been known to have biological effects
through a so-called "thermal" mechanism. That is, a mechanism whereby
the radiation absorbed by a body results in a heating of the body's
tissue. Almost all present-day exposure standards for non-ionizing
radiation limit exposures to below "thermal" thresholds.
In addition to the thermal effects, scientists have observed phenomena
that are not explained by "thermal" mechanisms. These phenomena have
variously been called "athermal" or "nonthermal" bioeffects. Although
the scientific literature has published reports of nonthermal bioeffects
for some time, there has been an absence of "hard" scientific data
corroborating such effects. This has led to skepticism about
experiments displaying nonthermal effects.
Some scientists have suggested that nonthermal effects might possess
unique properties that make traditional concepts of radiation dose
inappropriate for describing some types of bioeffects of non-ionizing
radiation. For example, "windows" in frequency and field intensity have
been suggested to explain differences found in very similar scientific
experiments. It has been hypothesized that effects might occur within
these windows and not outside of them. If this is true, the traditional
assumption would not hold that more exposure to the field would cause a
more pronounced effect.
Bioeffects and Sources of Non-Ionizing Radiation
Until recently, the only nonthermal effect observed from non-ionizing
radiation were behavioral changes in animals exposed to very high
intensities at higher (radio and microwave) frequencies. However,
recent epidemic-logic studies at extremely low frequencies (60 Hertz)
have indicated potential cancer effects in children. Moreover, a
limited number of cellular level experiments have been performed that
indicate the carcinogenicity is a plausible but not confirmed result of
exposure to extremely low electromagnetic fields.
332
-------
Epidemiologic studies suggesting a correlation between power frequency
exposure and cancer include:
o elevated incidence of cancer in children exposed in
residences in proximity to electrical transmission and
distribution lines;
o elevated incidence of cancer in children whose father's were
occupationally exposed; and
o occupational exposure to electromagnetic fields.
The elevated risks associated with these types of exposure is not well
characterized. The reported evidence is statistically significant in
some case-controlled studies of cancer in children. This human
evidence, though, is observational in nature, and some have suggested
that these studies did not control potentially relevant factors which
might also lead to these statistical differences.
What is most striking about these epidemiologic studies is the type of
exposure which has been correlated with cancer. The focus of exposure
has been to power frequency (60 Hertz) magnetic fields at relatively low
levels (2-3 milliGauss or, equivalently, 0.2-0.3 microTesla). In
comparison, this level is well below the earth's static magnetic field
of about 600 milliGauss (60 microTesla). Also, an electrical wire
carrying 1 ampere of current produces 0.2-0.3 microTesla at a distance
of 3 feet from the wire.
Sources of this level of magnetic (and electric) fields at and near
power frequencies are ubiquitous. Sources include electric blankets,
fluorescent lamps, TV receivers, computer terminals, hair dryers,
electric razors, microwave ovens, stereo headphones, coffee makers,
subway cars and platforms, powerlines (at the edge of the right-of-way),
etc. Data on exposure of the general public to these power frequencies
are limited.
Cellular experiments with low frequency non-ionizing radiation have
neither confirmed nor refuted the results of the epidemiologic studies.
Although many studies have not linked non-ionizing radiation to
bioeffects, a few studies have noted changes in brain tissue calcium
efflux and some other effects after exposure to electric and crossed
electric/magnetic fields.
Major sources of population exposure to high frequency sources include
special radars used by the military and civilian sector for air traffic
control. Some radio transmitters may constitute sources of high level
population exposure. In addition, some foreign sources operating above
power levels allowed in the United States likely result in high levels
of exposure to populations living near the border.
•?•?'
W^J v
-------
Population Exposure
Almost all exposure to non-ionizing radiation cannot be physically
sensed. Most exposure can be inferred by knowing the characteristics of
electrical or electronic equipment that are the sources of such
radiation. Power lines and power transformers are examples of such
equipment. Special instruments are available to measure the electric
and magnetic field components of non-ionizing radiation.
Two notable studies have examined population exposure to power frequency
and radio frequency non-ionizing radiation. These are a study by Silva,
et al. (SI85) sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute which
compared human exposure during agricultural and recreational activities
near power lines to exposure during domestic activities in the home. An
EPA study (HA86) has also characterized population exposure to radio
frequency non-ionizing radiation.
Most types of population exposure are likely to be comparable in all
regions of the United States. Individual variability in the types of
electrical equipment used in the home is more likely than conmercial and
military sources to determine personal exposure levels. In some
instances, power transmission lines, power distribution lines, large
electrical generators and motors, radars and radio transmitters
constitute local "hot spots" of exposure. Actual population exposure
is, however, difficult to infer without detailed measurements.
At our current level of understanding, it is not possible to establish
direct links between population exposure to non-ionizing radiation and
cancer. In fact, we are even uncertain as to which parameters are
important to assessing exposure; i.e., magnetic field component,
electrical field component, level of intensity of the field, frequency
of the field, duration of exposure, etc.
EOODDGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
At the levels of environmental radioactivity of concern to this project,
radiation exposure has little or no adverse effects on organisms other
than man or on the environment.
The adverse effects associated with low-levels of radioactivity in the
environment are cancer, genetic effects, and birth defects. Such
effects, even if extremely rare or undetectable, are of concern to
humans. However, for organisms other than man, the concern is not with
individual organisms but on the viability of the species and the
function and structure of the ecosystem as a whole. The following
briefly summarizes the research and demonstrates that low-level
radiation is of concern only to humans and may be considered in-
consequential in terms of its potential ecological effects.
During the 1960s and 1970s a vast amount of radiobiological research was
performed to assess the impacts of radiation on plant and animal
communities. The research included a large number of comprehensive
laboratory and field studies motivated primarily by concern over fallout
from weapons tests. Excellent reviews of the literature are provided by
334
-------
Turner (TU) and Casaretti (CA68). A more recent review was prepared by
the Office of Radiation Programs in 1986 (EPA86).
In summary, it appears that at prolonged exposures of ecosystems below a
few rad per day there are no detectable adverse ecological impacts.
Turner concludes that, though the community interactions to prolonged
exposures to ionizing radiation are complex and difficult to predict,
doses on the order of several hundred rads per year would be needed to
cause extinction of a species. Such exposures can occur following a
major nuclear accident (e.g., Chernobyl), but are not associated with
the production and use of radioactive materials. Nor are they
associated with uncontrolled sites where previous activities have
resulted in the contamination of the site with radioactive materials.
WELFARE ASSESSMENT
The potential welfare effects associated with radiation exposure can be
divided into two broad categories:
o costs associated with effects on human health, and
o costs associated with commercial damage.
The costs associated with health effects include direct medical costs
and lost productivity due to the inability to conduct normal work
activities. The 1988 report Cancer Facts and Figures, published by the
American Cancer Society, estimates that for 1985 the total economic cost
of cancer was $71.5 billion. This includes direct medical costs and
indirect costs associated with lost productivity. The American Cancer
Society estimates that there were 985,000 new cases of cancer in the
United States in 1988. Since, over a 30 year period, the per capita age
adjusted cancer death rate has increased at a rate of less than one
percent per year, the estimate of 985,000 cancers can be used to
estimate the approximate cost per cancer. Escalating the 1985 cost by
7.5 percent per year inflation in health care services (BC87), and
assuming the cancer incidence remains virtually unchanged, results in an
economic cost of cancer in 1990 dollars of approximately $100,000 per
case. In Region 5, the total costs of radiogenic cancer would be on the
order of $500 million per year, or roughly 2.7 percent of the regional
cost of all cancers.
The costs associated with commercial damage caused directly by radiation
are negligible. Unlike many other categories of environmental
pollutants, radioactive contaminants and background radiation do not
cause direct ecological damage. However, the contamination of
facilities and sites where radioactive materials have been or are
produced and used, can result in considerable cleanup costs. For
commercial facilities, the costs of decontaminating and decommissioning
the facilities and the sites are reflected in the costs of the products
or services. For sites owned by government agencies, the costs will be
borne by the taxpayers. Restoration of the sites operated for the
Department of Energy has been initiated. Current estimates place these
restoration costs in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Whether or
not such costs will actually be incurred is uncertain at this time, and
no estimate is made of the costs on a regional basis.
335
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Other welfare effects associated with other classes of pollutants are
generally not applicable to ionizing radiation. Radioactive effluents
do not impair visibility, result in esthetic damage, or result in
recreational losses. Nor, do they, at the levels corresponding to
normal operations, result in commercial harvest loses or destruction of
property. Agricultural losses due to accidental releases are not
assessed.
336
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REFERENCES
BA89
BC87
BR89
CA68
EPA89a
EPA89b
EPA86
EPA84a
EPA84b
EPA81
FAA90
FR87
Barish, R. J., Understanding In-Flight Radiation - A Reference
Manual, published by In-Flight Radiation Protection
Services, New York, NY, 1989.
U.S. Bureau of Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States:
1988. 108th Edition, Washington, D.C., 1987.
Brooks, B.C., Occupational Radiation Exposure at Commercial
Nuclear Power Reactors - 1986. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory
Commission, NUREG-0713, Vol. 8, Washington, D.C., 1989.
Casaretti, A.P., Radiation Biology. Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewocd
Cliffs, NT, 1968.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental
State
ment - NESHAPS for Radionuclides: Background Information
Document - Volume I; Risk Assessment Methodology. EPA
520/1-89-005, Office of Radiation Programs, Washington,
D.C., September 1989.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental Impact State
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Document - Volume II; Risk Assessments. EPA 520/1-89-005,
Office of Radiation Programs, Washington, D.C., September
1989.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Effects of Radiation on
Aquatic Organisms and Radiobiological Methodologies for
Effects Assessment. EPA 520/1-85-016, Office of Radiation
Programs, Washington, D.C., February 1986.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Occupational Exposure to
Ionizing Radiation in the United States. EPA-520/1-84-005,
Office of Radiation Programs, Washington, D.C.,
September 1984.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Radionuclides; Background
Information for Final Rules - Volume II. EPA 520/1-84-022-2,
Office of Radiation Programs, Washington, D.C., October
1984.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Population exposure to
EPA/SEPD-80-12, Office of Radiation Programs, Washington,
D.C., April 1981.
Federal Aviation Administration, Radiation Exposure of Air Carrier
Crewmembers. Advisory Circular 120-52, March 5, 1990.
The Federal Register. Vol. 52, No. 17, January 27, 1987.
337
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HA86 Hankin, N.N. , The Radiofrequency Radiation Environment; Environ
mental Exposure Levels and RF Radiation Emitting Sources.
EPA 520/1-85-014, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency/
Office of Radiation Programs, Washington, D.C. , July 1986.
NAS80 National Academy of Sciences, The Effect on Populations of Expo
sures to low levels of Ionizing Radiation: 1980. Committee
on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations,
Washington, D.C. , 1980.
NCRP87 National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements,
Ionizing Radiation Exposure of the Population of the United
States. NCRP Report No. 93, Bethesda, MD, 1987.
SI85 Silva, J.M. , Hummon, N.P. , Huber, D.L. , Zaffanella, L.E., and
Deno, D.W. , AC Field Exposure Study; Hunan Exposure to 60—
Hz Electric Fields. EA-3993, Interim Report, prepared for
the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) under Research
Project 799-16, April 1985.
1U Turner, F.B. , Effects of Continuous Irradiation of Animal Popula
tions. work performed for the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission,
Division of Biomedical and Environmental Research, under
contract AT(04-1)GEN-12 with the University of California.
UNSCEAR82 United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic
Radiation, Ionizing Radiation; Sources and Biological
Effects. United Nations, New York, 1982.
Additional References Not Cited in the Report
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Evaluation of the Potential Carcinoge—
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ADDENDUM
OTHER THAN RADON
Response to state Comments
State Comment: Medical exposures should not be treated similarly to other
radiation exposures in that they involve risk/benefit consideration not
present in the other exposure situations.
Response: We agree with this comment. The health risk ranking of this
problem area was not based on medical exposure health risks. Risk
estimates were included in the report only for purposes of comparison.
State Comment: There is an apparent inconsistency in the exposure assumptions
that 60 percent of the risk is associated with exposures received in the
first 19 years of life when compared to the belief that older persons
are general more radio-sensitive.
Response: We believe that this apparent inconsistency is explained in the
report. As stated in the report: "While older persons are generally
believed to be more radio-sensitive, actual cancer induction may
actually be lower due to the long latency period of cancer induction.
Thus some of the estimated excess cancers may never actually be
expressed due to the death of the individual from other causes."
State Conment: Exposure to electromagnetic fields should be included in the
project.
Response: Exposure to electromagnetic fields is included in the discussion of
non-ionizing radiation. Unfortunately our state of knowledge concerning
this potential hazard has not progressed to the point where quantitative
risk estimates can be computed.
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