EIS801072DG
States
nental Protection
Region V
230 South Dearborn
Chicago, Illinois 60604
November, 1980
Water Division
Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources
Bureau of Environmental Impact
Box 7921, Madison, Wisconsin 53707
Environmental Draft
Impact Statement
Milwaukee Metropolitan
Sewerage District
Water Pollution
Abatement Program
Appendix IX
Secondary Growth
Impacts
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MILWAUKEE METROPOLITAN SEWERAGE DISTRICT
WATER POLLUTION ABATEMENT PROGRAM
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT
APPENDIX IX
SECONDARY GROWTH IMPACTS
'T
fc t" ; if-DOffl
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SECONDARY GROWTH IMPACTS APPENDIX
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter
Acknowledgements
I Introduction
II Summary of Findings
III Method of Analysis
IV Population Forecasts
V Background Assessment
VI Attitudes Toward Growth
and Development
VII No Action Alternative
VIII Private Plants
IX Indirect Fiscal Effects
X Secondary Natural Environmental
Impacts
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES
Table
Number
II-l Induced Growth, Mequon
II-2 Induced Growth, Germantown
II-3 Induced Growth, Underwood Creek
II-4 Induced Growth, New Berlin
II-5 Induced Growth, Muskego
II-6 Induced Growth, Franklin and
Franklin Northeast Interceptor
Area
11-7 Induced Growth, Oak Creek
Service Area
II-8 Net Fiscal Effect by Development
Alternative New Berlin, Germantown,
Northwest Side of the City of
Milwaukee: Annual Costs in the
Year 1990.
IV-1 Projected Regional Population in
the Year 2000 Using Various
Combinations of Fertility and
Migration Assumptions
IV-2 Projected Populations in the Year 2000
IV-3 Change in Milwaukee County Population
V-l Building Permits (starts) 1970-78
V-2 Shares of SMSA Permits (starts)
V-3 Septic Tank Permits and Single-Family/
Duplex Permits: Ozaukee, Washington
and Waukesha Counties, 1970-1978
V-4 Lot Costs
V-5 Lot Costs by Year
V-6 Septic Tank Permits as a Percent of
Single-Family/Duplex Permits, 1970-1978
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V-7 Single-Family/Duplex Permits
Issued 1970-1978
V-8 Milwaukee Public School Enrollment:
1970-1979
V-9 Percentage Change in Annual Single-
Family/Duplex Starts
VI-1 Community Growth Attitudes, Developing
Suburbs
VII-1 Development Effects, No Action
Alternative
IX-1 Induced Growth: Germantown
IX-2 Induced Growth: Northwest Side of
the City of Milwaukee
IX-3 Induced Growth: Menomonee Falls
IX-4 Number of Students Generated by
Alternative Development Alternatives:
Germantown
IX-5 1990 Annual School District Operating
Costs Attributable to New Residential
Development: Germantown
IX-6 Annual School District Capital
Expenditure by Development Alternative:
Germantown
IX-7 Number of Students by Development
Alternative: Northwest Side of
the City of Milwaukee
IX-8 Annual Municipal Operating Costs
by Development Alternative: Germantown
IX-9 1990 Annual Municipal Capital
Expenditures by Development Alternative:
Germantown
IX-10 Annual Additional Municipal Operating
and Capital Costs by Development
Alternative: Northwest Side of
Milwaukee
IX-11 1978 Property Tax Rates
IX-12 Property Tax Revenues From New
Residential Development
IX-13 Per Student and Per Capita Revenues
From Sources Other Than the Property
Tax: 1978
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IX-14 Revenues From Sources Other Than
the Property Tax by Development
Alternative
IX-15 Students Generated by Alternative
Development Pattern: Menomonee Falls
IX-16 Net Fiscal Effects by Development
Alternative
IX-17 Induced Growth: New Berlin
IX-18 Number of Additional Public School
Students by Development Alternative:
New Berlin
IX-19 Distribution of Additional Students
by Grade Level: New Berlin
IX-20 Annual School District Operating
Costs by Development Alternative:
New Berlin
IX-21 Operating Costs Attributable to New
Residential Development: New Berlin
IX-22 Capital Costs Attributable to New
Residential Development: New Berlin
IX-23 Revenues: City of New Berlin
IX-24 1978 Property Tax Rates: New Berlin
IX-25 Property Tax Revenues From New
Residential Development: New Berlin
IX-26 Per Student and Per Capita Revenues
From Sources Other Than the Property
Tax: New Berlin
IX-27 Revenue From Sources Other Than the
Property Tax, By Development Alternative:
New Berlin
IX-28 Net Fiscal Effect by Development
Alternative: New Berlin
IX-29 Growth Development Pattern: City of
Oak Creek/Oak Creek Interceptor
Sewer Area
IX-30 Net Fiscal Effect by Development
Alternative in 1990: New Berlin,
Germantown, and Northwest Side of
the City of Milwaukee
X-l Existing Air Quality
X-2 Forecasted Land Use
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure
Number
III-l Secondary Growth Impact Analysis
IV-1 SEWRPC Population Forecast and
Current DOA Estimate
Milwaukee SMSA
IV-2 SEWRPC Population Forecast and
Current DOA Estimate
Milwaukee County
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF MAPS
Map
Number
II-l MMSD Planning Area
II-2 Interceptor Service Area
V-l MMSD Planning Area
VI-1 Suburban Growth Attitudes
X-l Air Quality Nonattainment
Areas
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
SUPPLEMENTS
Number
V-l Housing Units Permitted 1970-
1978 by Year
V-2 Single-Family/Duplex Permits
Issued: 1970-1978
V-3 Housing Starts - Yearly Permits
Issued
V-4 Single-Family/Duplex Yearly Permits
Issued
V-5 Multi-Family Yearly Permits Issued
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ESEI staff responsible for the preparation of the Secondary
Growth Impacts Appendix include: Edward Powelson (Project
Manager); Mark Vannucci; and James Hock.
Under ESEI's direction, much of the research and analysis
performed for this appendix was conducted by Real Estate
Research Corporation (RERC) as a member of the EIS Study
Team. Real Estate Research Corporation staff responsible
for analyses includes: Stephen Friedman, AICP (Principal
Counselor); Margery al Chalabi; Valerie Kretchmer; and
Roberta Walker.
The analysis of private plants and natural environmental
secondary impacts was performed solely by ESEI.
In the course of this analysis, RERC staff conducted
telephone and personal interviews with government officials,
builders, developers, and others throughout the Milwaukee
area. These individuals were invariably generous with time
and information. Their cooperation and assistance was
essential to the analysis. Responsibility for the
judgements made rests with the authors.
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CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
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CHAPTER I
SECONDARY GROWTH IMPACTS: INTRODUCTION
Secondary impacts (unanticipated urban development that can
accompany sewer construction projects) are a concern of the
Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on the Milwaukee Water
Pollution Abatement Program (MWPAP). The existing sewer
system in Milwaukee County has capacity for future suburban
development. In addition, recently completed projects have
provided capacity to portions of Menomonee Falls and Hales
Corners. The City of Milwaukee and the Federal government
have invested in numerous urban revitalization efforts, and
the Southeastern Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission
(SEWRPC) has developed strategies for curbing urban sprawl.
To support urban revitalization efforts and to prevent unne-
cessary urban sprawl, with its associated consumption of
agricultural land and high public service cost, presently
sewered areas should be developed before providing large
new areas wilh sewer service. This goal of contiguous and
infill development is supported by SEWRPC.
During the 1970s, the general urban development trend of
the region has been one of stable numbers of households
within the City of Milwaukee, but substantial growth in
the numbers of households outside Milwaukee. The regional
population has been stable, due to increasing numbers of
households and decreasing household size (persons per house-
hold) . There has been steady growth on the Northwest Side
of Milwaukee, but this has largely replaced units lost to
demolition elsewhere in the City. The rate of regional
housing development in the mid 1970s relates to the increase
in numbers of households as the post-war baby boom generation
enters the housing market. This will continue to be a factor
in regional development through the 1980s.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency defines secondary
impacts as follows:
• Pressure to rezone or otherwise facilitate unplanned
(emphasis added) development.
• Pressure to accelerate growth for quick recovery of
the non-federal share of the interceptor investments.
• Effects on air quality and environmentally sensitive
areas by cultural changes. (Federal Register, Vol. 43,
No. 188, p. 44090)
1-1
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Secondary impact analysis is first concerned with determining
the effects that construction of new sewerage facilities
could have on urban development, and then with an evaluation
of whether the resulting urban development would proceed as
planned. Of concern is the short term (ten year) impact on
urban development, as well as the longer term result (20 year
planning period). These impacts are important because there
is an interrelationship between suburban and central city development,
The location of future sewered areas in the region should have
no effect on the total amount of development that will take place.
That is, the total amount of development is fixed; the location
of that development is not fixed. Greater than planned development
in suburban areas could result in less than planned development
elsewhere (e.g., in Milwaukee), if all other things are equal.
Where central city revitalization may be affected, this impact
is particularly important since the population trends beyond 1990
are highly uncertain (see Chapter IV, Population Forecasts).
The determination of secondary impacts uses the adopted SEWRPC
Regional (208) Plan as the basis. This plan details three main
concerns wilh future development:
1. The numbers of dwelling units, other land uses, and
population planned for 1985 and 2000.
2. The patterns of development (generally contiguous and
moderate density).
3. A reversal of population decline in the City of Milwaukee
by the mid-1980s, and revitalization of the City.
The development impacts projected by the EIS analysis were
evaluated against those criteria of the Regional Plan to
determine whether a secondary growth impact could occur.
This document contains the analyses of secondairy impacts of the
facilities proposed as part of the Milwaukee Metropolitan
Sewerage District Wastewater System Plan. It contains a back-
ground analysis of population, growth and institutional factors,
analyses of proposed interceptor sewers, and an analysis
of the indirect fiscal impacts expected to result from secondary
growth impacts, where they were significant. A summary of
Findings is included as the next section.
1-2
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Finally, the reader should be aware that an EIS analysis of
the impacts of interceptor sewer construction ultimately
considers a number of criteria. In making decisions related
to interceptor construction, the potential for secondary
impacts will be weighed against other environmental concerns;
for example, engineering feasibility, cost, construction
impacts (on traffic, noise levels, access to businesses), as
well as the possibility of continued water quality degradation
from treatment plant discharges into streams in the Milwaukee
area.
1-3
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CHAPTER II
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
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CHAPTER II
SECONDARY GROWTH IMPACTS: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
This summary is in three sections. First, background findings,
the methods used, major population and growth trends, and
other factors that conditioned the analysis are summarized.
Second, the key secondary impact findings are presented.
Third, the indirect fiscal impacts are summarized.
A. BACKGROUND FINDINGS
• Methods. This examination combined market analysis
techniques with institutional and regional growth
analyses. A planning area (see Map II-l) household
projection, consistent with recent Milwaukee area
demographic trends and within the framework of national
trends, was established. For the planning area, this
amounted to 4,000 dwelling units per year (average) for
the 1980s, with 1,200 required to occur in the City of
Milwaukee if it is to be revitalized. Each interceptor
service area was analyzed in terms of the market demand
for housing (and constraints on demand) to project
expected development with, and without, increased sewer
capacity until 1990. These figures were compared to
the SEWRPC forecasts; the development patterns and
location were compared to those aspects of the SEWRPC
plan; and the implications for other jurisdictions and
their attainment of planned development were analyzed.
• Population Trends and Forecasts. In the 1970s, pop-
ulation in the Milwaukee SMSA stabilized. There has
been slight net migration out of the region, reversing
historical trends. There has been a substantial in-
crease in the number of households, however. The
SEWRPC regional forecasts to the year 2000 were pre-
pared before these trends became clear. They continue
to forecast more in-migration and larger family sizes
than recent trends suggest. More new households were
established in the 1970s than SEWRPC projected, al-
though population is far below forecasts.
The EIS study team reviewed the trends (and national
literature on these issues) and concluded that the
assumptions made by SEWRPC may no longer be valid.
Therefore, there is a risk that the SEWRPC forcasts for
the 1990s are too high. The EIS estimates continued
reduction in average household size during the 1980s as
the post-war baby boom generation completes family
II-l
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LEGEND
COUNTY LINE
SECTION LINE
CORPORATE BOUNDARY
MMSO PLANNING AREA
I —~h"N%nTcn H »uKviLi-t i
AOOISON \ *] U ^u J1 P
I j s:: Vi —I & |
a WASHINGTON | OZAUKEE
MAP 11-1
MMSD PLANNING AREA
II-2
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formation. Beyond 1990, however, it is not clear
whether there could be continued growth in households
without a return to substantial net in-migation. The
competitive strength of other regional and sun-belt
areas suggests a low probability of this occurrence.
EIS research indicates there is a possibility that the
amount of development forecast by SEWRPC for the 1990s
will not be attained. Any sewerage facilities planned
principally to serve that forecast increment bear a
high risk of being underutilized. Further, if built
earlier than 1990, the sewerage facilities could also
help siphon development from other areas, such as the
City of Milwaukee's Northwest Side, Greenfield, Greendale,
and Hales Corners, and would reduce the opportunity to
fill-in areas already partly developed.
During the 1980s, the EIS study team projects the
increase in new dwelling units to average about 4,000
per year in the planning area. This figure serves as
the basis for the market analysis element of the
estimation of secondary impacts.
Growth Trends and Dynamics. The development impacts of
a major sewerage facility, or the lack of sewerage
facilities, depends on the dynamics of growth and
development of the areas involved. The EIS studied
recent trends, preferences, and other aspects of growth
dynamics.
1. Land Use Impacts of Not Building Facilities (No
Action).
The lack of the proposed facilities could have more
severe land use impacts than if sewer service were
provided. This would occur if development "leapfrogged"
outside the sewer service area to rural areas where
septic tanks could be used. Under No Action, much of
the development blocked from service areas could occur
in already sewered areas elsewhere in the planning
area. It is unlikely that much of this development
will use on-site systems due to relatively recent
improvements in septic tank regulation and enforcement.
Of particular importance was the recognition that
certain seasonally wet ("mottled") soils, common to the
region, were not suitable for septic tanks. This was
formally recognized by the State and soil testers in
the fall of 1976. Other sewered suburbs have moratoriums
and other limits as well, creating fewer options to
development within MMSD.
II-3
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While employment has decentralized in the Milwaukee
area in recent years, substantial concentrations are
within the MMSD planning area. Large proportions of
suburban employment growth have occurred in Oak Creek,
New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, and the City's Northwest
Side. If residential patterns follow as expected,
greater interest in near suburban and Northwest
Milwaukee locations can be anticipated. On balance,
the evidence suggests that "No Action" could lead to
infill development in already sewered areas, rather
than resulting in leapfrogging.
2. Impacts on Land Costs.
Suburban lot prices increased at a rate faster than the
national average during the years of the sewer mora-
torium. It is probable that restrictions on sewer
availability have in the past, and could continue, to
contribute to increasing lot costs. If the supply of
sewered suburban lots is restricted in the future, the
increase in the prices of these lots could help
encourage infill development in the City of Milwaukee.
3. Impacts on First-Time Homebuyers.
Although the sewer service restrictions may have resulted
in a shortage of sewered suburban lots and, consequently,
an increase in lot prices, there are still housing
opportunities in the region for first-time homebuyers.
Moderately-priced new houses are available in Oak
Creek and on the Northwest Side of Milwaukee.
Institutional Factors. Local government land use
controls are the primary institutional factors affect-
ing secondary impacts. There are, however, some
supplementary ones. Septic tank regulations were
mentioned above. Several changes in State and county
regulations may be discouraging this alternative to
public sewer systems in southeastern Wisconsin. In the
future, the State's control over sewer extensions
pursuant to S.144.04 and NR 110.08 (4), may be important.
Under these provisions, sewer extensions not in con-
formance with the approved 208 plan service area
boundaries will be prohibited by Wisconsin DNR. However,
the SEWRPC 208 plan service areas presently contain no
staging provisions. This tends to dimminish the
importance assigned to short-term (10 year) impacts.
The potential impact of this policy has been considered
in the analyses.
II-4
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The existing MMSD allocation system is a constraint in
the near term. In conducting the analysis, it was
assumed that it will expire as originally intended
(1982). Its continuation is a potential mitigating
measure for secondary impacts.
There is increasing activity and interest under the
Wisconsin Agricultural Land Preservation program.
It concentrates on the rural portions of Waukesha,
Washington and Ozaukee Counties. Its direct impact on
urban development in the planning area is slight,
although it serves as an additional impediment to rural
residential development.
II-5
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B. SECONDARY IMPACT FINDINGS
The secondary impacts of the alternatives considered in the
facilities plan are summarized below. The impacts of a
local or regional alternative are essentially the same for
an area. This is because the capacity provided, and the
timing of its provision, are the same whether a local plant,
a sub-regional plant serving two communities, or an in-
terceptor is proposed. In only one case, Oak Creek, is an
alternative considered with a smaller capacity. In other
cases, alternatives with smaller capacity or the later
provision of sewer service are prospective mitigating
measures to prevent the identified secondary impacts. The
findings of the analysis are summarized by area below,
proceeding from the northeast (Mequon), counterclockwise to
the southeast (Oak Creek). (See Map II-2).
Mequon Area
Two alternatives are proposed for serving this area. One is
a sub-regional plant serving both Mequon and Thiensville.
The other is the construction of an interceptor (the North-
east Side Relief System). The development effects are basically
the same in both cases.
Development Effects
Either alternative will permit additional development to
occur in Mequon. The municipalities in Milwaukee County
that will be served by this system are almost fully developed.
Thiensville is also developed and will be able to accommodate
only 30 more housing units. Thus, any induced growth will be
in Mequon.
Under either action, an additional 2,225 housing units are
likely to be built in Mequon between 1979 and 1990 (Table
II-l) Mequon is a very desirable location for development
due to its location along Lake Michigan and larger amount of
vacant land. However, the growth management system being
developed is likely to constrain Mequon's potential demand
to between 225 and 250 housing units per year. Without the
interceptor, only 200 units can be accommodated. This is a
difference of 2,005 units during the planning period.
Based on local household and population foreceists, either
Action alternative would increase Mequon's population by
9,625 people, while No Action would lead to an increase of
only 2,335 people. The population growth induced by the
interceptors is projected to be 7,290.
II-6
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MAP 11-2
INTERCEPTOR SERVICE AREAS
T) Norlhsast Sid*
2) MenomonM Falls -
S«rmantown
3) Underwood Cre«k
»™X
4J Root Rivsr
«^X
5) Hol«« Corners
>MX
F) Franklin - Musksgo
Franklin-Northsast
Oak Crssk
I f 8§) I IWHITtFUHV
W / ?7- V-—
c**ar •-ff r^.^...
II-7
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TABLE II-l
INDUCED GROWTH, MEQUON
Base-1979
Households
Population
Increment
1979-1985
Households
Population
1985
Households
Population
Increment
1985-1990
Households
Population
1990
Households
Population
2000
Households
Population
Sub- regional
Alternative
5,210
17,141
975
5,125
6,185
22,266
1,250
4,500
7,435
26,766
Northeast
Side Relief
System Alternative
5,210
17,141
975
5,125
6,185
22,266
1,250
4,500
7,435
26,766
No
Action
5,210
17,141
200
2,335
5,410
19,476
0
0
5,410
19,476
SEWRPC
Plan
NA
NA
NA
NA
7,268
26,800
1,285
4,000
8,553*
30,800*
11,120
38,800
* Interpolation from 1985 to 2000.
Note: Yearly dates as of January 1.
Source: RERC projections, SEWRPC Plan.
NA - Not Applicable. 1979 estimates are not availsible from SEWRPC.
II-8
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The development that is likely to occur if the interceptor
system is built would be mainly single-family houses on one
acre lots. Some multi-family housing along major thorough-
fares would probably occur. Although the development would
be low denisty, it is likely to occur adjacent to existing
development.
Without the interceptor, the limited development that can
take place would also be adjacent to developed areas and
would be on sewered lots. This development would be expected
to occur within the next year. After that, no further
development can be accommodated since soils in Mequon are
poor for septic systems.
Secondary Impacts
The level of development with either action is within the
SEWRPC forecast, though by 1990 Mequon probably will have
1,000 fewer housing units than forecast. This is due to
Mequon's proposed growth management program which will
restrict development to 225 to 250 units per year. If these
controls are not enacted, more than this level of development
is anticipated, but the level would be within the SEWRPC
forecast. The character of the development would be con-
sistent with the Regional Plan, though at a slightly lower
density. Mequon's urban service areas (beyond which no
urban services will be provided) conform to the SEWRPC year
2000 land use plan; its policy of encouraging infill and
contiguous development will ensure a pattern of development
that is consistent with the Regional Plan. No severe secondary
impacts would result from No Action, though the of development
would be far lower than forecast in the Regional Plan.
Effect of Population Shortfall
Mequon and Thiensville already are served extensively with
sewers. Part of the function of the proposed action is to
relieve wet weather bypassing. The need for this relief
system would not be affected by a regional population
shortfall.
II-9
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Germantown Area
Two alternatives were considered for this area. The first
was connection to MMSD through either a new interceptor, or
an existing 57" interceptor at 107th Street and the Milwaukee
County line. The second alternative was a local plant. All
alternatives would provide the same capacity at the same
time, so their effects would be similar.
Development Effects
Germantown has a number of features that make it attractive
for development. These include accessibility to jobs on the
Northwest Side of Milwaukee and Menomonee Falls, a large
amount of vacant land, and a range of single-family and
multi-family housing opportunities. The EIS analysis revealed
that Germantown, Menomonee Falls and the Northwest Side tend
to operate as one housing market. Germantown's development
was relatively rapid, in part because sewer capacity was
available there and not in Menomonee Falls. When development
in Germantown was constrained because of inadequate treatment
capacity at its plant, the Northwest Side's share of develop-
ment increased.
The EIS projects that the Metro Northwest Area (Menomonee
Falls, Germantown, Northwest Milwaukee) will account for 25%
of the planning area's annual housing demand between 1979
and 1990. This represents about 1000 of the 4000 "units
projected to occur annually.
Under an Action alternative, that 25%, (1000 units) would be
distributed among the three areas in the following way:
Menomonee Falls would receive 14% of the 1000 units, or 140
units, due to its limited growth policy. Germantown would
attract 36% (360 units) and the Northwest Side would capture
50% (500 units).
The EIS has determined that approximately 45% of the Germantown
housing market demand overlaps with the Northwest Side of
Milwaukee. This share of the housing market is similar in
character and price to the housing occurring on Milwaukee's
Northwest Side. Based on interviews with builders and public
officials, this 45% of the Germantown housing demand could
be built in already sewered areas within Milwaukee.
11-10
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Therefore, under a No Action alternative, Milwaukee could
absorb 45% of the 360 unit annual demand in Germantown, or
160 units. The Northwest Side could then develop at the
rate of 660 units (500 + 160} per year.
Some of the prospective market for Germantown is inherently
suburban in orientation (i.e., the other 55%) and constitutes
a demand for larger lots and other uniquely suburban char-
acteristics. This share (200 units per year, or 360 x .55)
would have to shift to other suburban locations under a No
Action alternative.
To summarize, under an Action alternative, the annual market
shares are estimated to be: Menomonee Falls, 14% (140 units);
Germantown, 36% (360 units); and Northwest Milwaukee, 50%
(500 units).
Under No Action, Menomonee Falls' share would remain the
same (14% or 140 units), and Germantown's share would
decrease to 0 because the local plant is at capacity. The
Northwest Side's share would increase to 66% (660 units).
Twenty percent (200 units) would have to shift to other
locations.
With any of the Action alternatives, Germantown is expected
to add 2,773 housing units between 1979 and 1990, while
under No Action, only 253 units are likely to be added.
This is an induced growth of 2,520 housing units. In
population terms, this alternative causes a difference of
7,560 people. No Action would lead to an addition of 759
people while Action would increase Germantown's population
by 8,319 people between 1979 and 1990. (See Table II-2).
In Menomonee Falls, under both Action and No Action, 1,540
additional housing units are likely to be built during the
planning period. This is an addition of 5,431 people in
Menomonee Falls between 1979 and 1990.
Under Action, the Northwest Side would experience development
of 6,687 units, while under No Action, the number would be
7,807 housing units. Thus, 1,120 fewer units would be built
in the Northwest Side with an Action alternative. In terms
of population, this amounts to 3,136 fewer people in the
Northwest Side. Under Action, an addition of 12,344 people
is likely, while under No Action, 15,480 people are forecast
for the Northwest Side between 1979 and 1990.
11-11
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The type of development that is likely to be built in
Germantown is single-family residences on sewered lots of
1/4 to 1/3 acre. There would be some multi-family projects
as well. In the Northwest Side, development is likely to be
a combination of single-family and multi-family development,
leading to medium and high density residential use. All of
the development would be served by sewers.
Secondary Impacts
The level of population and housing units projected under an
Action alternative is consistent with the Regional Plan.
However, it is in conflict with the City of Milwaukee's
forecasts for the Northwest Side. There is a difference of
20,000 people between the City of Milwaukee and SEWRPC
projections for the Northwest Side in the year 2000. This
number is about equal to the forecast increment for Germantown
by 2000. Thus, these alternatives would have the effect of
facilitating development in Germantown without allowing the
Northwest side of the City of Milwaukee to develop to its
full capacity.
Effects of Population Shortfall
The regional plan specifically identifies policies of revi-
talizing the Central City and maintaining the existing
population of the City. In the event of a population short-
fall, these alternatives could lead to a pattern of develop-
ment that is contraty to this policy. In addition, the
pattern of development would leave a great deal of undeveloped
land in the Northwest Side of Milwaukee while Germantown
becomes more developed. This is also contrary to the plan's
policies.
Mitigation Prospects
Other alternatives which would mitigate some of the sec-
ondary effects include a smaller local plant expansion, a
joint venture with Menomonee Falls, or a smaller connection
to the 57" interceptor. These may suffice through the
entire planning period for a lower population forecast, or
at least until the 1990s. Germantown could consider implement-
ing local growth controls which would reduce the overall
level of development. Other institutional measures which
could be considered include a more restrictive 208 plan
service area boundary for the year 2000, staged service area
boundaries for 1985, 1990, and 2000, and an MMSD-imposed
continuation of the allocation system applied to Germantown.
11-13
-------
Underwood Creek Interceptor Service Area
Development Effects
The only alternative considered was an interceptor sewer.
The Underwood Creek Interceptor is primarily a relief sewer
for all of Elm Grove, eastern Brookfield, and portions of
West Allis and Wauwautosa. Since there is little vacant
land left to develop, only 400 additional housing units can
be accommodated. Under No Action, the number of additional
housing units is expected to be similar; thus/ there will be
no induced growth. There is likely to be an increase in
population of 1,458 people under both Action and No Action.
(See Table II-3).
The development that is likely to occur would be primarily
single-family houses on sewered, 1/2 acre lots. Development
will be of an infill nature.
Secondary Impacts
The level and character of development that is likely to
occur is consistent with the Regional Plan. Therefore,
there will be no secondary impacts.
Effects of Population Shortfall
Since there is so little vacant land that can be developed
in this tributary area, a regional population shortfall
would not have an effect on development in the service area.
11-14
-------
TABLE II-3
INDUCED GROWTH, UNDERWOOD CREEK
Action
No Action
SEWRPC Plan
Base
1978
Households
Population
Increment
1979-1985
Households
Population
1985
Households
Population
Increment
1985-1990
Households
Population
1990
Households
Population
2000
6,976
25,428
400
1,458
7,376
26,886
0
0
7,376
26,886
6,976
25,428
400
1,458
7,376
26,886
0
0
7,376
26,886
Households
Population
NA
NA
NA
NA
6,546
24,522
567
2 ,137
7,113
26,659
7,113
26,659
Note: Yearly dates are as of January 1.
Source: RERC projection; SEWRPC Plan.
NA- Not Applicable. 1979 estimates are not available from
SEWRPC.
11-15
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New Berlin Area
The final alternatives considered for New Berlin (that
portion in the planning area) are a local plant in the
southeast corner of the City, or two additional interceptors
connecting the City to the MMSD. With the latter, the
northern part of the City would be served by the Root River
Interceptor. The southeastern part would be served by the
Hales Corners Interceptor. The development effects of both
final alternatives are similar. There are some differences
in service areas under the alternatives, with the interceptor
alternatives serving portions of Greenfield and West Allis.
Development Effects
The northern part of New Berlin (the Root River Interceptor
Service Area) is substantially developed, while development
in southeastern New Berlin has been limited by the avail-
ability of sewer capacity. If additional sewer capacity is
provided in southeastern New Berlin (Hales Corners Interceptor
area), it will attract a larger share of the suburban MMSD
planning area housing market than it has in the past. This
is because the area is physically attractive, is accessible
by major regional highways, has local employment oppor-
tunities, and has large parcels of vacant, developable land.
The EIS study team has estimated a range of development for
New Berlin. The low end is the share of regional develop-
ment it is likely to attract based on the filling-in of
easily developed land in Greenfield, West Allis and Hales
Corners. The higher level is the share based on the possi-
bility that New Berlin will attract development from other
areas, in addition to the outward movement from the suburbs
mentioned above.
Under an Action alternative (Local or Regional), between
3,974 and 5,216 residential units are likely to be built in
New Berlin between 1979 and 1990, increasing the population
by a range of 13,962 to 18,470. With a No Action alternative,
only 2,024 housing units could be constructed between 1979
and 1990, increasing the population by 6,883. Thus, the
growth induced by an Action alternative would range from
1,950 to 3,192 housing units between 1979 and 1990. This
represent an induced population increase between 7,079 and
11,587 people. (See Table II-4).
The development that could occur under the alternatives
would be primarily single-family houses on 1/4 and 1/3 acre
lots. There would be a limited amount of multi-family
construction as well. Most of this development would occur
in the southern half of New Berlin, which has a great deal
11-16
-------
TABLE 11-4
INDUCED GROWTH, NEW BERLIN
Base 1979
Households
Population
Action
(Local or Regional)
9,286
34,172
No Action
9,286
34,172
SEWRPC
Plan
9,286**
34,172**
Increment
1979-1985
Households
Population
1,649-2,136
5,522-7,290
1,224
3,979
1,519**
6,728**
1985
Households
Population
10,935-11,422
39,694-41,462
10,510
38,151
10,805
40,900
Increment
1985-1990
Households
Population
2,325-3,080
8,440-11,180
800
2,904
1,487
5,167
1990
Households
Population
13,260-14,502
48,134-52,642
11,310
41,055
12,292*
46,067*
2000
Households
Population
15,265
56,400
* Interpolation from 1985 to 2000.
** 1979 estimates are not available from SEWRPC; 1979
estimates used to determine increments, 1979-1985 and
1985-1990.
Note:
Yearly figures are as of January 1.
Source: RERC projections; SEWRPC Plan.
11-17
-------
of vacant land. The northern half of New Berlin, within the
Root River area, is developed more fully and has only a few
vacant parcels left. The development within the southern
half of New Berlin will proceed in a contiguous manner in
accordance with local policies, which require developers to
pay the full cost of sewers. This reduces the potential for
leapfrogging.
Under No Action, once the remaining capacity at the existing
Regal Manors Plant is used (612 more units can be accom-
modated) , the development that is permitted would be confined
to the Poplar Creek service area (outside the planning area)
and the Wildcat Creek area in eastern New Berlin. Wildcat
Creek now has capacity for more housing and the vacant land
there could develop if additional capacity is not provided
for southern New Berlin. Within the Poplar Creek and Wildcat
Creek areas, development would be in a contiguous pattern.
Secondary Impacts
The major secondary impact of an Action alternative is a
greater level of development, at a faster rate than forecast
in the Regional Plan. The EIS estimate shows a divergence
of between 968 and 2,210, housing units from the SEWRPC plan
by 1990. This excess development could occur in other
southwest suburbs, including Greenfield and Franklin. These
areas are presently served by sewers (or will probably be
served to handle existing problems) and have vacant land for
development.
Effects of Population Shortfall
If there is a regional population shortfall, there could
either be unused sewer capacity in New Berlin, or develop-
ment could occur at the expense of other areas. The unused
capacity in New Berlin would be at a. local plant, or in the
Hales Corners Interceptor (The Root River Interceptor is a
relief sewer and its service area is substantially develop-
ed) . If development in New Berlin were at the expense of
development elsewhere, there could then be excess capacity
elsewhere in the planning area.
Mitigation Prospects
Mitigation prospects are poor for an Action alternative
because capacity may be provided all at once rather than in
small increments. Though New Berlin controls the form and
character of development, it does not have any mechanism to
control the rate of development. Thus, since the market is
strong, it is likely that if greater capacity is provided, a
large number of housing units may be built. It would take
the cooperation of New Berlin, SEWRPC, and DNR to keep the
rate of development within that forecast by SEWRPC.
11-18
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Muskego Area
The three final alternatives analyzed for Muskego are
construction of the Franklin-Muskego Interceptor, upgrading
the existing plants in Muskego, or building a single plant
to serve the area. The secondary impacts on Muskego are
similar for all action alternatives. The Franklin-Muskego
Interceptor would also serve a small portion of Franklin.
The growth involved in Franklin is not included in the
tables for this section, but it was fully analyzed.
Development Effects
Muskego is likely to experience only a moderate amount of
development if additional capacity is provided through any
action alternative. Muskego has a slow growth attitude and
is attempting to limit its development to no more than 150-
200 units per year. The City has adhered to this limit in
the past and is likely to continue to follow this policy.
Between 1979 and 1990, 1,860 housing units are projected for
this area with the Action alternative. No Action would
result in the construction of 450 units, the vast majority
of which would be built on septic tanks in the northwest
corner of Muskego. Thus, the induced growth would amount to
1,410 housing units.
Based on an estimated population per household figure of
3.25, the Action alternative would lead to an increase in
population of 4,874 people, while No Action would increase
the population by 291, an induced growth of 4,583 people
(See Table II-5).
The development that would likely occur with the Action
alternative would be primarily single-family houses on
sewered lots of 1/2 acre. Some duplexes and small multi-
family projects are also likely. A small portion of the new
housing would be on unsewered lots of one acre or more.
Development would be concentrated in the northeast and
northwest sections of Muskego, with little development in
central Muskego. Under No Action, almost all development
would be single-family houses on large lots with septic
systems.
The Franklin-Muskego Interceptor would also serve part of
Franklin. While there is still some vacant land in this
area, most of the future development will be in Muskego.
11-19
-------
Base 1979
TABLE II-5
INDUCED GROWTH, MUSKEGO
Regional
Alter-
native
Two Plant
Alter-
native
One Plant
Alter-
native
No
Action
Note: Yearly dates are as of January 1.
This table includes the development in the Muskego portion of the
Franklin-Muskego Interceptor Area.
SEWRPC
Plan
Households
Population
Increment
1979-1985
Households
Population
1985
Households
Population
Increment
1985-1990
Households
Population
1990
Households
Population
2000
Households
Population
4,686
16,401
935
1,867
5,621
18,268
925
3,007
6,546
21,275
4,686
16,401
935
1,867
5,621
18,268
925
3,007
6,546
21,275
4,686
16,401
935
1,867
5,621
18,268
925
3,007
6,546
21,275
4,686 NA
16,401 NA
200 NA
(522)2 NA
4,886 4,423
15,8762 16,500
250 505
813 1,667
5,136 4,9265
16,692 18,1674
5,938
21,500
2 Muskego's population is projected to decline between 1979 and 1985
under No Action due to the projected decline in household size from
3.53 to 3.25.
3 Interpolation from 1985 to 2000.
Source: RERC Projections; SEWRPC Plan.
NA - Not Applicable. 1979 estimates are not available from SEWRPC.
11-20
-------
Secondary Impacts
The SEWRPC forecasts for 1985 for the service area have been
exceeded and, by 1990, the year 2000 levels are likely to be
reached. Although the level of development is likely to be
higher, the rate is expected to be similar to that in the
Regional Plan. Development is expected to occur at a steady
pace since Muskego has a policy to control its growth and
has followed this policy in recent years.
The No Action alternative could have the secondary impact of
scattering development on large unsewered lots. This is
inconsistent with the policies of the Regional Plan.
Effects of Population Shortfall
If there is less than the forecast level of population
growth, under an Action alternative the SEWRPC population
and housing unit forecasts for Muskego could still be met.
Growth to this point has been more rapid than the SEWRPC
plan forecast and the 1985 projections have been surpassed.
However, it would also mean that the development that does
occur will be even less concentrated within Muskego.
11-21
-------
Franklin (Franklin Northeast Interceptor Area)
There are two alternatives for providing sewer service to
this area. The first is to build an interceptor and the
second is to upgrade the existing system of lift stations.
The upgrading of the lift stations would provide less
capacity than the interceptor and will be incorporated into
the No Action Alternative since its growth effects will be
similar.
Development Effects
Franklin has experienced the highest growth rate in Milwaukee
County since 1970, and has a pro-development attitude. The
high degree of development is due to Franklin's attractiveness,
accessibility to major regional highways, and abundance of
vacant developable land in large parcels.
The level of development was examined for both the Action
and No Action alternatives. Under the Action alternative,
1,256 housing units are projected for the interceptor area
between 1978 and 1990. No Action would result in the con-
struction of 869 units. Thus, the induced growth would be
387 housing units. An increase of 3,435 people would result
for the Action alternative, while No Action would increase
the population by 2,294, and induced growth of 1,141 people.
The development that could occur under these alternatives
would be primarily single-family houses. There would be a
limited amount of multi-family construction concentrated on
the major thoroughfares. Under the Action alternative,
construction would be scattered throughout the interceptor
area; while under the No Action alternative, development
will be concentrated and would fill in the vacant parcels of
land.
Secondary Impacts
As Table II-6 shows, Franklin and the Franklin Northeast
Interceptor Area have exceeded the 1985 levels of housing
units forecast by SEWRPC. By 1985, the interceptor area
would probably have about 25% more housing units than fore-
cast by that year, and under the Action alternative, would
likely exceed the level forecast by SEWRPC for the year
2000. Under No Action, the interceptor area will have
several hundred fewer units than forecast in the year 2000.
In addition, the type of development resulting from the
construction of the interceptor could be inconsistent with
the Regional Plan. This inconsistency would evolve from the
insufficient development of vacant land (approximately 6.5
11-22
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square miles) in the existing gravity sewer basins, and the
scattered development that could take place along the inter-
ceptor's length, rather than in a sequential and contiguous
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Effects of Population Shortfall
If there is a regional population shortfall in the future,
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11-24
-------
Oak Creek
Two alternatives were considered by the EIS study team for
conveying sewage from northwest Oak Creek to MMSD treatment
facilities. One was an interceptor and the other was an
expansion of an existing lift station. In this case, the
expansion of the lift station would provide less capacity
than the interceptor and the remaining development would be
accommodated elsewhere in Oak Creek.
Development Effects
The City of Oak Creek has experienced a considerable amount
of residential and industrial growth over the past decade
with its population increasing by 15%. The City is encour-
aging development and has a large amount of vacant, develop-
able land within, and outside of, the service area. The
study team's analysis indicates that Oak Creek will continue
to attract the same approximate share of regional develop-
ment over the planning period.
The proposed facilities should have no effect on the overall
level of development for the City of Oak Creek. Oak Creek
is likely to experience development of 225 units per year
over the planning period, for a total of 2,475 new housing
units between 1979 and 1990. Within the Oak Creek service
area, the interceptor alternative would lead to an addition
of 390 housing units by 1990. By contrast, upgrading the
lift station will result in only 230 additional housing
units. The No Action alternative will result in 90 added
units. Population increments to 1990 would be 1,112 with an
interceptor, 657 if the lift station were upgraded, and 257
under No Action. (See Table II-7).
It is likely that medium density residential development
would occur in the interceptor service area, given con-
struction of the interceptor. The majority of units will be
single-family, though there will be some multi-family
development. The interceptor could open up the service area
to the south, while existing development is in the north.
The development is expected to be scattered under this
alternative. By contrast, either of the other alternatives
(upgrading the lift station or No Action) could result in
contiguous growth, adjacent to current development in the
area.
Secondary Impacts
Secondary impacts could be caused by construction of the
interceptor. Development is likely to be scattered through-
11-25
-------
TABLE II-7
INDUCED GROWTH, OAK CREEK SERVICE AREA
Base 1979
Households
Population
Increment
1979-1985
Households
Population
1985
1990
Households
Populat ion
2000
Households
Population
Action-
Interceptor
1, 173
3, 343
140
399
1, 563
4 , 455
Ac tion-
Upgrade
Lift Station
1 , 173
3, 343
140
399
1 , 403
3, 999
No
Ac tion
1,173
3, 343
90
257
1,263
3,600
SEWRPC Plan
NA
NA
NA
NA
Households
Population
Increment
1985-1990
Households
Population
1 , 313
3 , 742
250
713
1,313
3, 742
90
257
1,263
3,600
0
0
1,323
4, 090
679
1 ,888
2,002 *
5,978 *
3,359
9,754
* Interpolation from 1985 to 2000.
Note: Yearly dates are as of January 1.
Sources: RERC projections; SEWRPC Plan
NA - Not Applicable. 1979 estimates are not available from SEWRPC,
11-26
-------
out the City of Oak Creek. Since the interceptor is not
expected to induce additional development in the entire
City, development that could be accommodated in other
sewered parts of Oak Creek may shift to the interceptor
area. The result is a more scattered development pattern
that is inconsistent with the policies of the Regional Plan
and with Oak Creek's comprehensive plan. This would mean
that areas of Oak Creek that are already served with gravity
sewers may have excess capacity.
Expanding the lift station would have only minor secondary
impacts. The level of development would be within SEWRPC
forecasts for the interceptor area, though at a far lower
level. A small amount of development that could be accom-
modated in other sewered parts of Oak Creek could shift to
the interceptor area. However, this would amount to only
140 housing units to the year 2005. Since the development
is expected to occur adjacent to the urbanized part of the
interceptor area, the pattern of development would be contiguous
This conforms to the Regional Plan.
Effects of Population Shortfall
Under the interceptor alternative, if there is a regional
population shortfall, Oak Creek would be left with a great
deal of vacant, sewered land. Even if the forecast growth
for Oak Creek was attained, it could be accommodated without
the interceptor. Improvements to the existing lift station
could help solve some existing problems in the interceptor
area and could enable a small increment to be added.
11-27
-------
Conclusion
The secondary growth impacts of the Facility Plan Action
Alternatives are not significantly different on an overall
basis. However, there are areas where one or all of the
proposed alternatives have secondary growth impacts. These
impacts are defined as development that is different from
the Regional Plan in terms of numbers and rate of growth,
character of development, or impacts on other jurisdictions.
There are three areas where secondary growth impacts could
occur.
In the Germantown area, the growth that could result from
Action would accommodate development that might otherwise
occur on the City of Milwaukee's northwest side. This could
result in conflicts with SEWRPC land use policies of maintaining
the existing population of the City of Milwaukee and encouraging
development contiguous to existing development (infilling).
While the number of households that would be developed in
Germantown is within the SEWRPC forecast for 1990, there
exists a risk of unnecessary capacity in Germantown. Further,
if the population forecast for the 1990s does not occur, the
opportunity to develop the already sewered Northwest Side may
be reduced. To mitigate these impacts, a combination of
institutional measures and smaller capacity facilities could
be developed that reflects a lower population for Germantown
than originally forecast by SEWRPC. This population should
be consistent with the market interactions analyzed by the
EIS study team and the probability that a large portion of
the development slated for Germantown could, in fact, be
diverted to Milwaukee.
The southeastern portion of New Berlin presents a secondary
growth problem (this area is also identified as the Hales
Corners Interceptor Area). It is partly developed and
served by a plant at the Regal Manor subdivision. Any
alternative that provides the capacity proposed in the
facilities plan could have secondary growth impacts. In all
cases, development could occur more quickly, and attain a
greater total level, than called for in the SEWRPC fore-
casts. This would occur because of the attractiveness of
the area, open land available for development, nearby
employment opportunities, and the lack of significant growth
controls by New Berlin.
11-28
-------
The development that could otherwise occur in presently
sewered areas include northern New Berlin, Greenfield,
central Franklin, and parts of Muskego. In the event that
the population growth forecast for the 1990s does not occur,
there could be excess capacity in several portions of the
southwest portion of the planning area, due in part to the
effects of serving southeast New Berlin. To mitigate these
impacts, local growth management controls, contract provisions,
a smaller facility, or a delay of any facility could be
examined.
In Oak Creek, the secondary impact analysis revealed that
the growth forecast for the service area under the inter-
ceptor alternative could occur in a scattered fashion. In
addition, it was found that the development involved could
be accommodated elsewhere in Oak Creek. The alternative of
upgrading existing lift stations to handle basically
existing capacity was also analyzed, and was found to be
consistent with the Regional Plan policies of compact,
contiguous development.
11-29
-------
C. INDIRECT FISCAL IMPACTS
Three areas had potential for secondary growth impacts of
some significance. These are Menomonee Falls/Germantown
(and Milwaukee's Northwest Side); southeast New Berlin
(Hales Corner's Interceptor); and Oak Creek. Table II-8
summarizes the quantified net fiscal effect in 1990, (per
additional household and in total) for New Berlin, Germantown,
and the Northwest Side of the City of Milwaukee, by alternative.
The alternatives for serving New Berlin all create a net
fiscal burden on the City and school district. However, the
No Action alternative has the smallest annual fiscal burden.
This reflects the need to add school facilities to accommodate
the substantial growth expected under the Local and Regional
Alternatives.
Residential development under the Action and No Action
alternatives does not create a net fiscal burden on Germantown
and is a benefit on the Northwest Side of Milwaukee. Accord-
ingly to Regional Plan estimates, the excess of revenues
over costs is very small for Germantown under the Action
alternative, while net per household revenues increase
substantially under the No Action alternative.. These results
indicate the significant costs are associated with high
levels of residential development. No Action is most fiscally
advantageous to Germantown.
For the Northwest Side of the City of Milwaukee, revenues
exceed costs by a substantial margin almost $3,000 per
household, as a result of the present excess capacity
within the City and school district. This totals almost $20
million per year under Action and almost $23.5 million under
No Action.
Within Menomonee Falls, identical levels of growth are
projected under the Action and No Action alternatives.
Therefore, the net fiscal impact on the Village and school
district would be the same under either alternative.
From strictly an indirect fiscal impact perspective, the No
Action alternative for the Menomonee Falls-Germantown Interceptor
Sewer Area is the most advantageous. It results in a modest
positive cost/revenue balance in Germantown in. 1990 and a
substantial net positive addition to the financial position
of the City of Milwaukee — almost $23.5 million total and
$3.5 million greater than Action.
11-30
-------
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-------
Within Oak Creek, identical population and household in-
creases were projected under the two Action and the No
Action alternatives. The fiscal impact analysis was largely
qualitative and differences between alternatives would be
slight.
11-32
-------
CHAPTER III
METHOD OF ANALYSIS
-------
CHAPTER III
SECONDARY GROWTH IMPACTS: METHOD OF ANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION
This chapter presents an approach to analyzing the secondary
growth impacts of sewer interceptors (or an increase in
sewage capacity) proposed in the Milwaukee Water Pollution
Abatement Program (MWPAP). It includes both qualitative and
quantitative elements.
This approach addresses several issues. These include:
The relationship of secondary growth impact analysis
to regional planning and the SEWRPC land use plan.
• Analysis of statewide, and regional, institutional
factors which have undergone significant changes in
recent years.
Analysis of region-wide development trends.
• Analysis of individual interceptor areas, which in-
cludes qualitative factors and an alternative to
GEMLUP.*
The remaining steps in secondary growth impact analysis are
outlined at the end of this chapter.
SECONDARY IMPACT ANALYSIS AND THE SEWRPC REGIONAL PLAN
An EIS analysis of secondary growth impacts provides an
opportunity to identify the possible adverse effects of
interceptors or, at the very least, provides an opportunity
to openly reconcile conflicts between several issues of
concern to the EPA. These include:
*GEMLUP, meaning Growth Effects of Major Land Use Projects,
is a recently developed mathematical modeling technique for
estimating the future development of an area. An attempt
to calibrate GEMLUP yielded unsatisfactory results for the
metropolitan area; thus, it was dropped from further
consideration.
III-l
-------
Agricultural Land Preservation
Protection of Critical Environmental Areas
Protection of Open Space Lands, Historic and
Archaeological Sites, etc.
Preventing (or, at least, not encouraging) urban
sprawl.
Supporting central city revitalization.
The regional land use plan prepared by SEWRPC considered
these EPA concerns and other issues related to secondary
impacts. This land use plan became the basis for the SEWRPC
208 Plan (Regional Water Quality Management Plan), and
supplied the basic growth parameters for the MMSD Wastewater
System Plan (WSP).
The planned sewer system in Milwaukee is intended to support
the Regional Plan. As a result, the fundamental criterion
for evaluating secondary growth effects might be whether the
sewer system, as planned, supports the Regional Plan.
ISSUES
The SEWRPC Regional Plan has considered and resolved, in a
reasonble way, the issues of concern in secondary impact
analysis. The function of the EIS then becomes the identi-
fication and resolution of unexpected and unintended
consequences destructive to the Regional Plan. The EIS
analysis focuses on the possibility that serious divergencies
from the Regional Plan could be caused by additional sewer
capacity.
The issues on which the analysis focuses are as follows:
• The proposed interceptor may induce greater than
planned growth, or it may induce growth to occur
earlier than otherwise expected.
• If population forecasts or presumptions of changed
central city population trends do not materialize, the
proposed interceptors may not support the general
direction of the Regional Plan in terms of controlling
sprawl and encouraging central city growth.
III-2
-------
• The lack of the interceptor, or a different capacity
conveyance or treatment facility, could result in the
leapfrogging of growth to outside of the MMSD service
area and undermine the Regional Plan.
Two levels of analysis are required to examine these issues.
The first is a background review of issues that are common
to all of the interceptors in the Milwaukee EIS. The second
is a specific assessment of each interceptor area.
The following are issues common to the background analysis
of the region:
« The extent to which current development and sewer
controls in Wisconsin prevent secondary impact
problems. These include the effects of discharge
permits, changes in the last 10 years in septic tank
regulation, a new Wisconsin law on sewer extensions and
plans, Wisconsin's nonproliferation policy, and the
Wisconsin Farmland Preservation Act.
• The extent to which recent development trends support
or weaken the Regional Plan. Whether public attitudes
toward growth are consistent with the plan, shifting
toward it, or shifting away from it. Whether planned
revitalization of the central city could occur and,
given household formation rates and household size,
what the implication toward an interceptor's capacity
might be.
Three questions need to be addressed specifically for each
interceptor area:
If past relationships of urban development hold, what
could be expected to happen if the interceptor is
built?
• To what extent do changing local plans and attitudes
toward growth suggest that effective restraints will be
adopted (or sustained) to limit secondary effects from
each interceptor?
To what extent do current local market forces support
or conflict with the interceptor as planned?
Figure III-], outlines the steps to be taken to address
these issues.
III-3
-------
FIGURE HI-I
SECONDARY GROWTH IMPACT ANALYSIS
BACKGROUND ASSESSMENT \
n STATE/REGIONAL INSTITUTIONAL
u ENVIRONMENT
n REGIONAL GROWTH TRENDS
0 AND ATTITUDES
L
SEWRPC PLAN
INTERCEPTOR PLANS
O CAPACITY
O LOCATION
O SERVICE AREA
O TIMING
O ALTERNATIVE
INTERCEPTOR AREA ANALYSIS
O PLANNED GROWTH
O RECENT GROWTH
O EXISTING AND EXPECTED CONTROLS
O MARKET FORCES
-. GROWTH "EXPECTED" vs. PLANNED
u (REGIONAL AND LOCAL)
O EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVES
SUMMARY AND MITIGATION
n DIVERGENCE FROM REGIONAL PLAN
u (TIMING, CAPACITY, ETC.)
O EFFECTS ON CENTRAL CITY
O LEAPFROG EFFECTS
n ALTERNATIVES TO PREVENT OR TO
0 MITIGATE
O INSTITUTIONAL ACTIONS TO MITIGATE
III-4
-------
BACKGROUND ASSESSMENT
The background assessment includes two tasks.
1. Review the Impact of Recent Institutional Changes in
Wisconsin on Secondary Growth.
Governmental controls of development staging, permits to use
sewer capacity, or other measures can effectively prevent or
reduce many secondary growth impacts. Several recent
changes in public policy in Wisconsin may affect the degree
to which secondary growth effects can occur. These include
the new Wisconsin statute on sewer extensions and plans; the
effects of septic tank regulation; possible changes in the
nonproliferation policy; and the impact of the new agricultural
land preservation program on urban development patterns.
The evaluation of the relationship of these policies to
interceptor sewer impacts requires the collection and review
of relevant statutes, administrative rules, and informational
memoranda from state agencies, EPA, and SEWRPC. Interviews
must be conducted with personnel in local/state/federal
agencies to determine the current and expected institutional
constraints in Wisconsin and the region. These include
contacting, among others, the WDNR, SEWRPC, Wisconsin
Department of Health and Social Services, State Planning,
and environmental and developer lobbyists.
2. Evaluate Growth Trends and Changing Attitudes
There is a greater chance of secondary growth impacts if
development trends are not consistent with the pattern of
development forecast in the Regional Plan. These trends
could create pressure for greater (or lesser) suburban (or
central area) growth than planned. Both central city and
suburban growth trends and attitudes need to be examined
since the Regional Plan makes assumptions about their growth
in an interdependent way.
To examine the trends, recent development should be mapped
and compared to past development. The numbers and locations
of housing units are as important as crude population levels
and should be examined for both central city and suburban
areas. Special census, coupled with recent attitudinal
surveys conducted by Milwaukee, the urban observatory and/or
the Milwaukee Journal provide input. This can be supplemented
with the informed opinion of key residential lenders, com-
mercial and manufacturing building interests, the metropolitan
builders association, and others.
III-5
-------
The trends that emerge can then be reviewed to determine
whether they are relatively similar in direction and
magnitude to the forecasts included in the Regional Plan.
The implications, in terms of the sewer interceptor network
and capacities, can be noted if there are significant
differences.
INTERCEPTOR AREA ASSESSMENTS
The preceding analysis will provide insight on institutional
constraints and the direction of growth. The service (or
tributary) area of each interceptor requires analysis to
determine whether the market and institutional factors in
its area will permit unplanned or excessive growth to occur.
Both quantitative and qualitative techniques aide in this
investigation of future development.
The principal issue of concern is the impact of a sewer
interceptor on the near term growth rate in the area and, if
the institutional analysis does not suggest sufficient
limitations, the probability that capacity might be exceeded
at some future date within the planning period. To accomplish
this, the analysis moves through the following sequence of
steps:
1. Planned Growth
Planned growth by 10 year increments, according to the
Regional Plan, is mapped (numbers, type of units,
location). Plans of local units of government are
mapped to identify differences with the Regional Plan.
2. Recent Growth in Area
Recent growth in the area is mapped, denoting the
location, type of housing and population. Demolitions
must also be considered if a substantial number have
occurred.
3. Existing Land Use Controls
The effects of land use controls as they exist, or
appear likely to exist in the planning period, are
examined. Recent changes and proposed changes are
included for each area if they are likely to affect
development.
III-6
-------
4. Market Force Assessment
The vacancy rate and vacant developable land data are
gathered for each area. Also, the implications of the
metropolitan trends are noted. Local planner, realtor,
and builder assessments of expected growth in the area,
with and without a sewer, are obtained. Discussions on
whether the sewer capacity allocation policy has resulted
in slowed development (pent-up demand) in the area are
presented.
5. Growth Expected and Divergence from Regional Plans
Based on these four reviews, an estimate of short-term
(10 year) development in the area with the proposed
interceptor is compared to planned growth (.Regional
Plan) and the interceptor capacity. Also, the possible
impacts of alternatives are evaluated.
6. Summary of Impact and Mitigating Measures
The expected divergence from the Regional Plan is
summarized in terms of timing of development as well as
other factors. Effects on the central city are spelled
out. Alternatives that might prevent or mitigate these
effects are identified along with institutional actions
that could be taken to prevent secondary growth impacts.
III-7
-------
CHAPTER IV
POPULATION FORECASTS
-------
CHAPTER IV
SECONDARY GROWTH IMPACTS: POPULATION FORECASTS
This chapter summarizes the EIS analysis of the population
forecasts used by the MWPAP. It addresses the recent
population trends in the region, the forecasted population
trends, and the risks involved in utilizing the recommended
set of forecasts.
INTRODUCTION
The MWPAP recommended the use of population forecasts
prepared by SEWRPC for the 208 planning program. The fore-
casts are based on the year 2000 Regional Land Use Plan.
The plan advocates moderate population growth in the planning
area, and reflects policies to control urban sprawl and
support central city revitalization.
There are risks attendant on the use of the SEWRPC fore-
casts. These relate principally to the shortfall in the
SMSA and Milwaukee County populations in recent years when
compared to the forecast levels. In the 1970s, rather than
growing moderately as was forecast, population in the SMSA
has been stable. In the older areas of the SMSA, population
has been declining more rapidly than expected. Therefore,
it is possible that the use of SEWRPC forecasts could result
in excess interceptor sewer capacity and length in both the
design year (2005) and in intervening years. This could
create problems by disrupting the balance between population
forecast for Milwaukee and outlying suburbs. Providing more
suburban sewered land than is needed, at a lower price, may
furnish an incentive for suburban development at the expense
of central city development and neighborhood revitalization.
These risks could be addressed through two approaches.
First alternatives could be considered that are flexible
enough to reduce interceptor capacity and length if the
population does not grow as rapidly as expected at the time
construction begins (e.g., permit the staging of inter-
ceptors) . Second, in assessing the secondary effects of
interceptors, attention should be paid to the effects of the
interceptors on population distribution, in the event that
the forecasts are incorrect.
IV-1
-------
PROPOSED FORECASTS
The MWPAP proposed the use of SEWRPC population forecasts
for the planning area and the interceptor service areas. In
developing forecasts for the seven-county region, the four-
county SMSA, and Milwaukee County, SEWRPC considered a
number of potential projection assumptions (the regional
population assumptions are summarized in Table IV-1). The
selected projection reflects moderate assumptions regarding
both fertility and migration.
The SEWRPC forecasts do meet the requirements outlined in
the Federal Register of September 27, 1978 (p. 44088).
These EPA requirements state that if the forecasts of a
designated 208 Planning Agency are to be used, its projected
population for the region cannot exceed the state population
forecasts for the same area by more than 10 percent. SEWRPC's
seven-county regional forecast for the year 2000 of 2,219,300
varies only 2.4 percent from the State Department of
Administration's (DOA) forecast of 2,274,240 for the same
year. In addition, the DOA forecast for the State in the
year 2000 cannot vary from the U.S. Department of Commerce
(BEA) forecast for that year by more than 5 percent. The
year 2000 DOA forecast of 5,783,000 for the state exceeds
the 1977 BEA forecast of 5,553,000 for the state by 4.1
percent. Finally, for comparison's sake, the year 2000
SEWRPC SMSA forecast of 1,727,200 varies only 2.2 percent
from the DOA SMSA forecast of 1,766,240 for the same year.
These forecasts appear in Table IV-2.
Distribution of Population
The distribution of population shown in the SEWRPC population
forecast is a normative one, based on their Planning Report
No. 25, A Regional Land Use Plan and A Regional Transportation
Plan, Volume 2, Alternative and Recommended Plan, pp. 44 and
45. This plan is labeled "controlled centralization," and
assumes that sprawl will be controlled through land use
controls and other public policy actions. It assumes that,
due to "fundamental changes in (national) migration components,"
the central city and mature suburbs will stabilize in pop-
ulation and will, in fact, reverse trends around 1985 and
increase in population. The Report continues:
In the recent past, migration was largely characterized
by rural people moving into urban areas of the east,
north central, and midwest. This rural pool of
potential migration has effectively disappeared,
however, and migration is presently characterized by a
IV-2
-------
Projection
Mumber
11
12
13
14
15
Table IV-1
PROJECTED REGIONAL POPULATION IN THE
YEAR 2000 USING VARIOUS COMBINATIONS OF
FERTILITY AND MIGRATION ASSUMPTIONS
2000
Fertility and Migration Assumptions Population
Continuation of current3 fertility and mortality rates to
2000; migration rates at 1950-60 level. 3,756,400
Reduction in fertility to replacement level from 1975 to
2000; migration rates at 1950-60 level; current mortality. 3,532,000
Continuation of current fertility and mortality rates to
2000; migration rates at 1950-70 level 3,167,700
Reduction in fertility to replacement level from 1975 to
2000; migration rates at 1950-70 level; current mortality. 2,968,400
Continuation of current fertility and migration rates
through 1980, then replacement level fertility to 2000;
migration rates between the current and the 1950-70 level
to 2000; current mortality. 2,701,700
Continuation of current fertility, mortality, and migration
rates to 2000. 2,634,100
Continuation of current fertility rates to 1985, then replace-
ment level fertility to 2000; continuation of current
mortality and migration rates to 2000. 2,590,100
Continuation of current fertility rates to 1980, then replace-
ment level fertility to 2000; continuation of current
mortality and migration rates to 2000. 2,560,300
Reduction in fertility rates to replacement level from 1975
to 2000; continuation of current mortaility and migration
rates. 2,506,800
Reduction in fertility rates to below replacement level from
1975 to 1985, then replacement level fertility to 2000;
reversal of net out-migration of the 1960's to net in-migra-
tion from 1970 to 2000; current mortality. 2,427,000s
Continuation of current fertility and migration rates to 1985,
then replacement level fertility and no migration to 2000;
current mortality. 2,380,800
Continuation of current fertility and mortality rates to 2000;
no migration. 2,338,300
Reduction in fertility to below replacement level from 1975 to
1985, then replacement level fertility to 2000; slowdown in
the out-migration of the 1960's to a slight net in-migration
by 2000; current mortality. 2,219,300
Reduction in fertility rates to replacement level from 1975
to 2000; continuation of current mortality rates; no migra-
tion. 2,175,2000
Reduction in fertility to below replacement level from 1975 to
1985, then replacement fertility to 2000; continuation of d
current out-migration and current mortality. 1,971,300
Current refers to 1970 fertility and mortality rates and to 1960-70 migration rates.
b Selected by Commission staff and Advisory Committees as the probable upper limit of
regional population in 2000.
c Selected by Commission staff and Advisory Committees as the best forecast of regional
population in 2000.
d Selected by- Commission staff and Advisory Committees as the probable lower limit of
regional population in 2000.
Source: SEWRPC.
IV-3
-------
TABLE IV-2
PROJECTED POPULATIONS IN THE YEAR 2000
Wisconsin
SEWRPC
(7 County
Area)
SMSA
(4 County
Area)
1977
BEA (OBERS)
DOA
SEWRPC
5,553,000"
5,783,000'
DIFFERENCE
4.1
2,274,2402 2,219,3003 2.4
1,766,2402 1,727,2003 2.2
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Population, Personal Income
and Earnings by State; Projections to 2000, Dept. of
Commerce,1977.
>
"Department of Administration, Wisconsin Population Projections,
1975.
SEWRPC, Planning Report No. 25, A Regional Land Use Plan and a
Regional Transportation Plan for Southeastern Wisconsin —
2000.Table 18, p.50.
IV-4
-------
shift of population from the mature industrialized
areas of the east, north central, and midwest states to
the south and west in response to the newly developing
industrial economies there, with the attendant economic
and job opportunities. In time, that shift will diminish
as per-unit labor costs in the south and west approach
those existing in the east, north central, and midwest
states. This should eventually stabilize much of the
out-migration presently occurring from those states.
It is basically this premise that results in a net gain in
population within the MMSD planning area of about 100,000
people by the year 2000 (rather than a stable or declining
population within the planning area), with that population
increasingly located in suburban locations. SEWRPC Report
No. 25 indicates that Milwaukee County (the only county
entirely within the MMSD) would actually experience a small
absolute decline in population of 4,700 persons between 1970
and 2000. That is, the population decline from 1970 to 1980
would barely be offset by the expected increase from 1980 to
2000. In comparison, between 1970 and 2000, Washington and
Ozaukee Counties would increase in population by 124 percent
and 109 percent, respectively.
The detailed assumptions and the steps in making this normative
distribution of population are documented on pages 409-411 of
the SEWRPC plan (Report 25, Volume 2). The steps include a
determination of what land was available, serviced, and
developable in each U.S. Public Land Survey quarter section.
The projected population for the region was then allocated
throughout the region. Consideration was given to micro-
level trends of development. Overall, new residential
development was first allocated to land that was platted and
serviced but not yet developed, then to land within areas
planned for sanitary sewer service. Only 10 percent was
allocated to rural density residential development.
The implementation of the SEWRPC plan involves land use
control actions of local governments throughout the region
and the careful use of sewer system planning. Without
consistency throughout the region, urban development could
merely shift from one part to another without regard to the
plan. In addition, the state is in a position to be an
active partner in implementing the Regional Plan. It has
enacted legislation establishing consistency with approved
208 plans as a prerequisite for the approval of sewer
extensions (NR110.08).
IV-5
-------
RECENT TRENDS
The Wisconsin Department of Administration annually estimates
the population of each county and minor civil division for
use in distributing state aids. These estimates are based
on tax files, auto registrations and other indirect indicators
of population. State estimates have been subjected to
several court challenges and have been found to be reasonable
and accurate. However, the City of Milwaukee undertook a
special census in order to contest the estimates and found
slightly fewer inhabitants than estimated. These estimates
can be considered a good indication of recent population
trends.
The estimates, through 1978, reveal that the most recent
trends in population in the region and SMSA are not compatible
with the forecasts. The deviation from the forecasts is
reflected not only in the relative populations of the central
city, mature suburbs and newer suburbs (a deviation to be
expected since the plan has not yet been fully implemented),
but also in the overall level of population in Milwaukee
County and the SMSA. Figures IV-1 and IV-2 illustrate the
disparity between the forecast and estimated populations for
the Milwaukee SMSA and Milwaukee County. While the population
of the four-county SMSA has remained almost stable, recording
a slight drop of 4,000 from 1970 to 1978, the population of
Milwaukee County has dropped 9% since 1970, from 1.05 million
to about 960,000. Table IV-3 shows that, from 1976 to 1977,
the decline was 22,521; from 1977 to 1978, it was 20,625.
It is not known whether this slight reduction in the numerical
decline indicates that a "bottoming out" of the decline will
occur in the near future. Overall, population in the Milwaukee
SMSA has been continuing to decentralize in the 1970s, with
suburban county gains (+89,218) largely replacing Milwaukee
County losses (-3,256).
DISCUSSION
The pattern of population decline within Milwaukee County,
as a part of the stagnant regional growth, is not unique to
the Milwaukee SMSA. This is occurring, to some extent, in
most older, mature SMSAs. At the same time, reduced house-
hold sizes continue to result in increases in dwelling units
and greater dispersion of population. For purposes of
planning sewer interceptor construction this creates significant
problems, since the timing of growth in both population and
developed area has become extremely difficult to predict.
IV-6
-------
SEWRPC POPULATION FORECAST
AND CURRENT DOA ESTIMATE
Figure IV-1
1700
MILWAUKEE SMSA
id
w
fi
0
•H
A
a
o
1600
1500
1400 -«£
1300
Figure IV-2
1150
to
13
(0
01
3
|
0
•H
la
S,
0
1100
1050
1000
950
900
MILWAUKEE COUNTY
1,054,(100
1,015,COO
939,50=
1,05(
1,000
1970 1975 1980
1985 1990
Year
1995 2000
IV-7
KEY
SEWRPC Forecast
,DOA Estimate
Source: SEWRPC and Wis. DOA
-------
TABLE IV-3
CHANGE IN MILWAUKEE COUNTY POPULATION
YEAR
1970
1973*
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
POPULATION
1,054,249
1,042,434
1,032,713
1,012,536
1,004,139
981,618
960,993
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR
- 11,815
- 9,721
- 20,177
- 8,397
- 22,521
- 20,625
*First Year of DOA Estimates
Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration
Official Estimates of Population
IV-8
-------
Recent commentary on this problem essentially agrees with
the SEWRPC assessment of the underlying trends: a redis-
tribution and equalization of economic activity, per capita
income, and population across the country, rather than a
longterm, slow, absolute decline of the older metropolitan
areas. (This view is summarized in an article in the
Wall Street Journal of October 6, 1978 by James Hyatt,
titled "Rethinking the Sunbelt's Rise," and in a 1978 Urban
Land Institute report, titled "The Changing Economic Role of
Central Cities.") The EIS study team estimates that, within
the planning period, the Milwaukee SMSA will again grow in
population and that the central city and older suburbs'
decline will be stemmed and reversed. A number of specific
conditions support this view. First, the State of Wisconsin
is growing in population faster than originally forecast
after the 1970 census. This is reflected in increases in
BEA's forecasts for 1990. Their earlier forecast for
Wisconsin is 184,000 lower than their 1977 forecast. Second,
the City of Milwaukee is pursuing efforts to revitalize both
its neighborhoods and its industrial and central business
district areas. Further, Milwaukee has generally highly
regarded residential neighborhoods, schools, and public
services, and remains an attractive place to live. One of
the chief impediments to a turnaround in the central city
may be the high property tax rate (relative to the suburbs).
This rate has remained higher than in the suburbs despite
substantial state aid efforts. In general, Milwaukee may be
high on any list of central cities regarding its chances of
reversing the decline in population. As national factors
equalize over time, it is possible that a balance between
factors like migration, labor rates, and property tax may
also be reached within Wisconsin. Thus, it is possible that
the direction of population change may shift toward that
noted in the SEWRPC forecasts (within the planning period).
The SEWRPC forecast of population distribution within the
planning area is consistent with a number of other federal
policies. This includes the Administration's urban policy
which discourages sprawl, and policies that protect critical
environmental areas and prime agricultural lands. If the
proposed sewer facilities were to support the current trends,
rather than the forecast, all of these federal policies
could be negatively affected.
IV-9
-------
The forecasts, therefore, are compatible with EPA policy in
terms of both range and support of national urban policy,
agricultural protection, and critical areas protection.
There are, however, substantial risks attendant on using
them., They predict a level of population for the MMSD
service area that is significantly higher than would result
from a crude projection of recent trends. The forecasts
estimate a distribution of population that depends on land
use controls throughout the entire SMSA, and sewer system
planning in a way that is consistent with the forecast
rather than with the recent distributional trends. This
results in a substantial risk of providing excess sewer
interceptor capacity and length. These risks are present
for the design year and for each year after construction is
completed. The presence of excessive capacity could enhance
the competitive position of suburban areas. At the same
time, limitations in capacity could result in residential
development bypassing the planning area altogether, and
relocating to other areas within the seven-county region
where capacity can be provided.
The risks associated with the use of the SEWRPC forecasts
may be summarized as follows:
• If the turnaround in population level and distribution
occurs later than forecast, enough suburban growth
could have occurred so that it will be impossible to
create the desired (forecast) pattern.
• If interceptors are built too soon, overextended, or
constructed with significant excess capacity, they
could exacerbate out-migration from the central city
and accommodate urban sprawl.
It is possible that the SEWRPC Regional Plan and the
MMSD Wastewater System Plan (WSP) could not rebound, or
react quickly enough, to meet the mandates of the
courts, EPA, and DNR if population forecasts vary
dramatically from the real situation by the time
construction is to begin.
Alternatives
Three alternatives could be considered regarding population
forecasts. First, the SEWRPC forecasts could be used for
planning purposes without modification or qualification.
Second, the SEWRPC forecasts could be completely revised to
account for the most recent trends. Third, the SEWRPC fore-
casts could be used, but the WSP could be developed in a
manner that provides for contingent and interim plans if
there is a population shortfall or change in distribution.
IV-10
-------
Accepting the SEWRPC numbers without qualification would not
be advisable. Projections of total regional population are
generally expected to be more accurate in the short term
than the long term. The SEWRPC forecasts are not accurate
in the short term. The distributional pattern would not be
expected to be as forecast in the short term since it re-
quires supportive zoning and a supportive sewer system. To
proceed without contingencies, given the shortfall, could
lead to excess capacities and secondary growth impacts. In
turn, excess capacities could undermine the very plan of
controlled centralization of regional development that the
use of SEWRPC forecasts is intended to support.
IV-11
-------
CHAPTER V
BACKGROUND ASSESSMENT, GROWTH
AND DEVELOPMENT TRENDS
-------
CHAPTER V
SECONDARY GROWTH IMPACTS: BACKGROUND ASSESSMENT,
GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT TRENDS
PURPOSE
This chapter presents the EIS analysis of recent growth
trends and provides a basis for evaluating the growth
effects of the facilities planning alternatives. It
addresses the recent trends in the region in terms of
population, housing starts (numbers, locations, and propor-
tion with septic tanks), lot costs, sewer extensions and
connections, sewer moratoriums, allocations, and leapfrogging,
The main points of this chapter are as follows:
Although the Milwaukee SMSA population remained
relatively stable during the 1970s, the number
of households increased during the same period
CSee Chapter IV).
• The overall population forecasts for the region,
provided by the Southeastern Wisconsin Regional
Planning Commission (SEWRPC), appear to be high
given recent trends. However, no alternative exists
in which one could have any greater degree of confi-
dence (See Chapter IV).
• The policy reflected in the SEWRPC population fore-
casts for the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District
CMMSD) is one of "controlled centralization;" that
is, the containment of urban sprawl. The proposed
sewer interceptors should be used to reinforce this
policy (See Chapter IV).
Interceptor and treatment plant alternatives should
permit flexibility in the face of population growth
uncertainty, and should avoid providing excessive
interceptor capacity in the suburban parts of the
MMSD which could undermine the SEWRPC Regional
Plan CSee Chapter IV).
• The location of new development in the SMSA has
followed the trends which were established during
the 1960s. In the 1970s, single-family unit con-
struction occurred primarily in the suburban counties,
although a majority (70%) of the multi-family units
were built in Milwaukee County (See Table V-2).
V-l
-------
The allocation system, with, its generous treatment
of the City of Milwaukee, could have been a factor
in the increase in single-family/duplex starts in
the City; an increase from 4.8% of the SMSA in 1977
to 8.0% in 1978 CSee Table V-7I.
The proportion of single-family/duplex housing starts
using septic tanks has increased in the last few
years and may be linked to the various sewer moratoria.
For the three suburban counties, 43.7% of single-
'family/duplex units used septic tanks in 1975; in
1978, 56.9% used septic tanks (See Table V-6).
The reported cost of vacant lots for development
has risen steeply since the moratoria and allocations
were established. Land costs in the SMSA rose sub-
stantially from 1976 through 1977, surpassing the
national average (See Tables V-4 and V-5).
Recent decentralization trends suggest that there
is currently substantial demand for development
in the interceptor service areas.
Population in the planning area has not grown in the
last decade. The increase in number of households
has, therefore, decreased the average household size.
Future development in the planning area will primarily
be a result of continued reductions in household sizes,
However, should both the household formation rate and
the population stabilize, continued suburban growth
in the interceptor areas could replace households in
Milwaukee City and County.
Conclusion
Consideration of alternatives that recognize the
lack of recent population growth in the SMSA could
serve as a contingency in the event that the 1980
census confirms recent trends are likely to continue.
This could allow the incorporation of risk (population
shortfalls) into the planning process.
INTRODUCTION
Recent growth trends in housing and in the location of
development are important in the evaluation of secondary
impacts of the Wastewater System Plan (WSP). The proposed
sewer service area includes a substantial proportion of
the SMSA. According to SEWRPC forecasts, the service area
should account for 56% of the future population growth in
V-2
-------
the SMSA (.145,700 of 316,900 from 1975 to 2QQQ1. An
accurate forecast for the future distribution of population
is central to the WSP. The extent to which the forecast
distribution is met, and the probability that it will
be met, is crucial in evaluating the impacts of the inter-
ceptor alternatives in the WSP.
There has been virtually no change in population in the
SMSA since 1970. Households have increased in number
during the same period. The implications of the lack of
population growth are noted in Chapter IV. The shortfall
creates high-risk conditions for several of the interceptors
analyzed in this EIS; e.g., the Menomonee Falls-Germantown,
Hales Corners, and Franklin Northeast Interceptors. Excess
sewer capacity and stimulated suburban growth may occur
at the expense of the City and County of Milwaukee. The
implications of this trend for the interceptor plans, and
the possible reaction of local development to changes in
the plan (reduced service areas or capacities) should be
explored.
The Metropolitan Builders Association and SEWRPC are
concerned that recent restrictions on sewer capacity in
the form of moratoria and allocations, are resulting in
the leapfrogging of development, which could result in
disruption of the SMSA's development pattern and the
SEWRPC Regional Plan.
GENERAL TRENDS
The Milwaukee SMSA has not grown in population in the 1970s.
The 1979 population, estimated by the Wisconsin Department
of Administration (DOA) was 1,403,902. The 1970 U.S.
Census SMSM population was 1,403,884. For this review
of growth trends, however, housing units are more important,
since it is their current, planned, and likely locations
which determine the need for interceptors and the configu-
rations of the overall system plan. From 1970 to 1978,
building permits were issued for a net addition of about
67,000 housing units. This, however, assumes that almost
all demolitions were in the City of Milwaukee (See Table V-l)
Of these, 35,000 were multi-family and 32,000 were single-
family/duplex units. Despite the stable population, the
demographic trends of the 1970s produced significant growth
in housing units.
From 1970 to 1978, the distribution of these housing
units has followed the trends established earlier in the
SMSA. For the period, the MMSD planning area communities
(including parts of Ozaukee, Washington, and Waukesha coun-
ties) logged 65% of all new housing units in the SMSA,
V-3
-------
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including 79% of multi-family and 50% of single-family/
duplex units (See Map V-l and Table V-2I. This was a
reduction from 1979, however, when the planning area
recorded 70% of all starts C85% of multi-family and 54%
of single-family1. The planning area's share was lowest
for all categories in the moratorium year of 1977 Cthe
number of housing starts in planning area communities,
as a percentage of SMSA housing starts, had been declining
since 1970). The City of Milwaukee maintained about 27%
of all starts over the period, principally multi-family.
Its net addition to the housing stock was low, due to demo-
litions. Only 17% of the net addition to the SMSA housing
stock was in the City of Milwaukee from 1970 through 1978.
An increasing fraction of single-family development has
occurred outside the planning area over the period, while
multi-family development has remained predominantly within
the metro area. Development has continued to favor Waukesha
County, with 17,000 (42%) of the SMSA's single-family/
duplex starts for the period 1970 to 1978. During the same
period, 32% of the single-family/duplex starts were within
Milwaukee County.
Suburban growth has been primarily the result of the decen-
tralization from the City of Milwaukee and its older suburbs.
The greater proportion of this suburban growth continues
to concentrate in the west and northwest areas, although
the southern and southwestern areas' growth has accelerated
in recent years.
A 1977 Milwaukee Journal survey indicated that north and
southsiders tend to look to their respective suburbs when
considering a move. Only 10% of either group were consider-
ing the other side of town (Milwaukee Journal, 3/27/77) .
Table V-3 shows 1970-78 annual single-family (includes
duplexes) permits issued in the three suburban counties
in the Milwaukee SMSA. Septic tank yearly permits as a
percentage of single-family permits are also shown. Septic
tank permits accounted for 44% of single-family permits
for the three county region during the 1971-75 period.
However, this percentage increased to 52% during the 1976-78
period. An examination of septic tank permits does not
allow for any conclusions to be drawn regarding the effects
of the moratoria and allocations.
However, a plausible explanation for the recent increases
in the percentage of septic tank permits could be the impo-
sition of the various sewer moratoria and allocation systems.
There was probably less development than expected in the
suburban portions of the planning area because of the
V-5
-------
LEGEND
COUNTY LINE
SECTION LINE
CORPORATE BOUNDARY
MMSD PLANNING AREA
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V-8
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restricted supply of sewered lots and their associated in-
flated prices. It is possible that some percentage of
this demand "leapfrogged" to locations beyond the planning
area where lots are served by onsite septic systems.
Lot costs are estimated to have risen from $9,627 to
$17,368 from 1973 to 1977 in the SMSA, according to the
Wisconsin Department of Revenue CSee Tables V-4 and V-5).
This represents an increase of 62% from the SMSA. Most of
this increase C36%) occurred from 1976 to 1977. This compares
to a national estimate of land cost increases, in all
SMSAs, of 52% from 1973 to 1978, and a more modest increase
of 13% from 1976 to 1977.
Future development in the region and the planning area
is likely to result primarily from continued reductions
in household sizes. It appears that the number of households
in the planning area will continue to increase until 1990.
Greater construction levels in the 1990s, without changes
in population patterns, would likely be associated with
a proportionate abandonment of other housing units.
Household size in the planning area will probably continue
to decline. It was estimated at about 2.8 - 2.9 persons
per household in 1978, according to the estimated population
and recorded building permits. Based on discussions with
Milwaukee area demographers, this appears likely to decline
further to 2.5 - 2.6 persons per household by 1990.
This would result in construction of an average of 4,000
dwelling units per year (to 1990) in the planning area.
Given the apparent effects of the allocation system and
other actions, the central city's share of single-family
starts is expected to increase, while its share of multi-
family starts should remain constant. At the same time,
multi-family starts are likely to stabilize at a lower
proportion of all starts than in the early 1970s. Multi-
family starts are assumed to account for about 50% of
future yearly starts, or about 2,000 units in the planning
area. About one-half of these (1,000 units) are expected
to be built in the City of Milwaukee Con average). Approxi-
mately 10% of single-family duplex starts should occur
in the City. Of the 4,000 units expected in the planning
area, Milwaukee may account for almost 1,200 units per
year Con the average! until 1990. The distribution of
the remaining units will be affected by the market strength,
growth policies, land availability, and general attractiveness
of each interceptor area.
V-9
-------
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35,000—1
20,000-
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Milwaukee County
Milwaukee SMSA
Waukesha County
Ozaukee County
U.S. SMSA's
North Central Region
Washington County
5,000-
1973 1974 1975 1976
YEAR
1977
1978
TABLE Y-5
LOT COSTS BY YEAR
v-ii
-------
Flow Restriction CMoratorium and Allocation! Effect on Growth
Since 1976, Milwaukee has been subjected to a series of
administrative and court-imposed restrictions on sewer
extensions and connections. This resulted in a great
deal of controversy about growth trends and sewer extension
policy, with claims of leapfrogging Cdevelopment occurring
outside the service areal on one hand and predictions that
this will prove beneficial to the City of Milwaukee on the
other. In addition, it is possible that lot costs have
been driven up as a result of the restrictions. This
recent market behavior may be an indication of how future
development patterns in the Milwaukee area would be affected
by controls on sewer extensions.
The moratorium on sewer extensions and the allocation of
capacity were the results of a series of actions involving
the Wisconsin DNR, MMSD, and the Dane County Circuit Court.
(A Wisconsin Environmental Decade suit was a separate,
but related, action). The following chronology is based
on a review of documentation of the actions, discussions with
MMSD staff, and conversations with Linda Bochert, an attorney
with the Wisconsin Attorney General's Office. During
most of the period, Linda Bochert was with the Wisconsin
DNR and served as an attorney for the plaintiff. The
timing and effects of events have been summarized, not the
detailed legal actions.
2/76 to 5/76 DNR decides it must enforce its rule
(NR 110.05) barring approvals of sewer
extensions where treatment is inadequate.
No sewer extensions are approved by DNR,
although some variances are; granted.
Connections are permitted to previously
approved extensions.
5/76 DNR passes an emergency rule permitting
some extensions to be granted even where
treatment is inadequate.
8/76 DNR sues MMSD; no extensions are approved
and there should be no connections.
However, connections to existing sewers
continue.
5/77 A stipulation was entered in Dane County
Court requiring an allocation system.
There should not be further extensions,
but connections are made to existing
extensions.
V-12
-------
12/77 An allocation system is established by
MMSD.
The allocation formula is based on five equally-weighted
factors: number of housing units; industrial sewage
flow Croodified by strength!; housing growth, by minor
civil division; capital investment in metropolitan sewerage
facilities; and metropolitan sewer system operation and
maintenance (.O&M) costs. The allocations relate to flow,
BOD, and total suspended solids. Initially, flow is the
controlling factor, while in later years BOD and solids
levels are reduced and can further constrain the flows.
Allocations are established through 1982, at which time
it will be reviewed for continuance through 1986. It has
been indicated that the flow allocations are ample to accom-
modate all near-term growth. Under the system, the City
of Milwaukee receives about 50% of the waste load allocation
for the MMSD area.
During the first year of operation (1978), seven communities
used their entire allocation and borrowed up to 40% of the
1979 allocation (Brookfield, Brown Deer, Franklin, Oak Creek,
New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, and Mequon).
Interviews were conducted with building industry representa-
tives and public officials on this subject (Steve Woll
of Milwaukee Metropolitan Builders Association, John Vincent
of Siepmann Realty Corporation, James Simons of the MMSD,
and Linda Bochert and Charles Ledin of DNR). Based on these
discussions, the development market from February, 1976
to December, 1977, is probably best characterized as
confused.
The City and County of Milwaukee
The City of Milwaukee had significant declines in single-
family/duplex starts during the 1970s, from 24% of the
SMSA in 1970 to only 5% in 1977 (See Supplements V-l through
V-5) . In 1978, however, the City had 8% of the single-
family/duplex starts, the highest since 1972 (since 1974,
less than 2% of single-family/duplex starts were for
subsidized housing). The multi-family and total figures
show additional central city/central county growth (See
Table V-l). It is possible that time lags could result
in delayed leapfrogging. Over the first few years of the
allocation system, the stock of available lots may be
used. Limitations on the platting of new lots, due to
the allocation, could shift a greater proportion of platting
outside the MMSD Service area.
-l 3
-------
Septic Tanks
Table V-6 shows the proportion of each county's starts
of single-family/duplex units using septic tanks. In
all cases, the proportion using septic tanks increased
significantly in 1977 and 1978. The moratoria affecting
Brookfield and Waukesha may be a factor in the increasing
use of septic tanks.
Lot Costs
In addition to effects on the location of development, the
moratoria and allocations may have been driving up the
cost of developable lots. Table V-5 shows the changes
in lot costs for the Milwaukee SMSA as compared to all
U.S. SMSAs and North Central SMSAs through"1977. Costs
in the Milwaukee SMSA paralleled U.S. costs through 1976
and increased substantially in 1977. It should be noted,
however, that the issue of lot costs is different from the
issues of development effects. Price can be a useful
mechanism for reducing both lot sizes and low density
development, providing that the demand for housing will
react to lot increases.
School Desegregation
The desegregation order that was issued by Judge Reynolds
in January, 1976 may have an effect upon Milwaukee area
development trends. Table V-8 compares the recent decline
in white school enrollment in Milwaukee with the gain
in black public school enrollment. Some of this loss
reflects general demographic trends related to smaller
white families. Nonetheless, immediately following the
desegregation order, there was a dramatic loss of white
students. This began to moderate by 1977 to 1978. The
Milwaukee Journal reported (March 31, 1977) that, of those
City residents considering a move, 2% listed schools as
a reason before Judge Reynold's decision, while afterwards
6% listed schools. Both are relatively small percentages
compared to those planning to move for more general house
(28%) and neighborhood (26%) concerns. If that was reflected
in the school decline figures, it is possible that the loss
and any flight from the City related to desegregation
will diminish, and it may cease to be a serious factor
in metropolitan development trends.
V-14
-------
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V-15
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V-16
-------
TABLE V-8
MILWAUKEE PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT: 1970-79
Total
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976*
1977
1978
1979
132,349
132,686
129,014
123,301
118,298
114,180
109,122
101,926
96,587
95,708
-28%
(± )
White
93,023
89,318 (-3,705)
85,069 (-4,249)
78,987 (-6,082)
73,005 (-5,982)
68,671 (-4,334)
62,329 (-6,342)
54,091 (-8,238)
48,148 (-5,943)
46,799 (-1,349)
-50%
Black
34,355
36,930 (+2575)
38,130 (+1,200)
38,498 (+368)
39,111 (+613)
39,250 (+139)
40,127 (+877)
41,109 (+982)
41,312 (+203)
41,626 (+314)
+ 21%
Increase or Decrease from previous year
* Desegregation Order, 1976
Source: Milwaukee Public Schools
V-17
-------
Summary; Moratorium and Allocation Effects
The results of this analysis are that the MMSD sewer
moratorium of 1976 to 1977 probably increased the propor-
tion of development outside the MMSD area slightly CSee
Supplement V-ll.
In 1977, during the time of the MMSD sewer moratorium,
Milwaukee County, City, and the MMSD communities as a
group all recorded the smallest share of SMSA single-
family starts since 1970. However, the MMSD communities'
share of the SMSA single-family housing starts had been
declining gradually since 1970 (Table V-21. It is probable
that one of the factors contributing to the increased rate
of decline from 1975 (50%) to 1977 (46%) was the MMSD
sewer moratorium. Conceptually, it would be logical to
assume that the moratorium of 1976-77 did cause an increased
proportion of SMSA development outside the MMSD area.
However, the data does not necessarily support a casual
relationship, especially when viewed within the context
of the MMSD's decreasing share of single-family starts
throughout the 1970s.
In 1978, when the allocation system was in force, the
City of Milwaukee accounted for 8% of the SMSA single-
family housing starts. This percentage was not only
the highest since the 9.5% in 1972, but came on the heels
of the City's smallest share of starts ever (1977, with
only 4.8% of the single-family starts). In addition,
multi-family starts in Milwaukee jumped from 28% to 57%
in 1978. The allocation system's constricted allotment
for the MMSD suburbs and the relatively generous share
for the City (and County) may account for this resurgence.
This would suggest that when developers interested in MMSD
contract areas were constrained by allocation ceilings,
some developed in the City/County of Milwaukee, while others
pursued opportunities in adjacent counties (Table V-2) .
INSTITUTIONAL BACKGROUND
Two institutuional factors are important background for
the analysis of growth impacts of the facilities plan.
First, there is the climate for use of on-site systems.
Second, there is the recently established power to limit
sewer extensions to conform to the boundaries of an approved
208 plan service area.
Onsite sewage disposal system — septic tanks — have
been an alternative to sewer systems in the Milwaukee
area. While soil conditions are not suitable in all
areas, water has been readily available. The traditional
V-18
-------
network of farm to market roads, coupled with- available
groundwater, made it possible to build wherever soil condi-
tions permitted septic tanks. Over a period of years,
a number of efforts were made by the WDNR and Department
of Health and Social Services to improve enforcement and
standards in an attempt to prevent failures in subdivisions
and the consequent demand for sewers. In late 1976, the
soil science community and the state agencies reached the
conclusion that certain seasonally wet C"mottled") soils
were unsuitable for septic tanks unless more extensive tests
in wet conditions proved contrary. It was then required
that more extensive testing be done on such soils. Signifi-
cant areas of Waukesha County that were previously deemed
suitable for septic tanks are now either considered unsuit-
able or, at a minimum, require more extensive testing.
This regulation has apparently aided in braking unsewered
suburban development and is a major reason that the developers
have shown less interest in septic tanks to serve subdivisions
in recent years. Somewhat countering this effect is the
interest in, and experimentation with, the "mound" system
as a substitute for septic tanks.
The power to limit sewer extensions to conform to the
boundaries of an approved 208 Plan service area rests
with the Wisconsin DNR. The DNR's power is added to local
government desire to control development and constitutes
a potent force to prevent — or ameliorate — unintended
development impacts.
SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS
• Population and Households; The Milwaukee SMSA
has experienced a stable population level with
increasing numbers of households during the 1970s.
This will probably change somewhat in the 1980s
with the increases in households moderating. While
complete region-wide studies of household formation
have not been conducted, the City of Milwaukee
forecasts stable numbers of households in the future.
Suburban population growth and housing development
have been essentially linked to the formation of
new households, since population in the SMSA has
not increased.
• Location of Development; Trends in location of
development in the Milwaukee SMSA have largely been
a continuation of those of the 1960s. Single-family
construction has occurred principally in suburban
counties, with Waukesha County accounting for over
40% of the SMSA single-family starts. Nonetheless,
V-19
-------
over the 1970 to 1978 period, Milwaukee County accounted
for over 30% of the SMSA single-family starts. A
majority of multi-family units were built in the
MMSD planning area C79%}, with 69% in Milwaukee County.
Moratorium and Allocation Effects; The effects
of restrictions in sewer capacity on development
were analyzed through a review of the trends from
1976 to 1978. Although time lags are created by
the availability of lots previously approved for
development, and there are problems in enforcing an
absolute moratorium, the effects do not appear to
have been extreme. The nearly complete restrictions
of 1977 seemed to have depressed starts in Milwaukee
County and City (and the other parts of the MMSD
Planning Area], while increasing starts only slightly
in the communities that were not even partly in the
MMSD (See Table V-9). The allocation system, with
its generous treatment of the City of Milwaukee,
seems to be associated with a minor renaissance
of single-family/duplex starts, which were higher
in the City in 1977 than any year since 1972. In
Milwaukee County, the number of starts in 1977 exceeded
starts in 1975 and equalled those of 1976. Both
Waukesha and Brookfield have had frequent sewer
and development moratoria during this period.
Septic Tank Use; Septic tank use, as a proportion
of all single-family/duplex starts, has increased
in Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha Counties in
the last few years which could, in part, be the
result of various sewer moratoria. Overall, for these
three suburban counties, 44% of single-family/duplex
permits were for septic tanks in 1975. That share
increased to 57% in 1978. Given only slight increases
in starts outside the MMSD communities, this implies
that much septic tank development is occurring in
the non-MMSD portion of planning area communities.
Lot Costs: The reported cost of vacant lots for
development has risen steeply during the time that
the moratoria and allocations were in effect. Prior
to 1976, costs in the SMSA paralleled national costs.
Through 1977, the SMSA costs rose substantially.
Interceptor Area Implications; Specific market
factors must be examined when each interceptor
area is analyzed. In general, there is currently
substantial demand for development in the inter-
ceptor service areas. Unless there are significant
changes in population trends, there will not be
V-20
-------
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V-21
-------
enough new households in the SMSA Cand the MMSD area}
by the year 2Q05 to achieve planned households levels
in both the interceptor areas and the central city.
If the sewer capacity increases substantially in
suburban areas, the City of Milwaukee may suffer.
Milwaukee County and City Implications: Milwaukee
City and County both contain much vacant developable
land. The City of Milwaukee may have benefited from
the moderate restrictions in suburban sewer capacity
provided by the allocation system. Under the first
year of that system in 1978, the City attained the
highest proportion of single-family and duplex starts
in several years (Table V-2). If household
formation rates slow down, further growth in the
interceptor areas and the rest of the SMSA would be
accompanied by the loss of households in parts of
both the City of Milwaukee and Milwaukee County.
CONCLUSIONS
In Chapter IV, Population Forecasts, it is emphasized
that the overall forecasts for the region appear high.
It is indicated that interceptor and facilities plan alter-
natives should permit flexibility and avoid providing
excessive interceptor capacity in suburban areas. Further
analysis of growth trends and household formations, presented
in Chapter IV, underscores this problem. If the trends
observed in the 1970s continue, there is a high risk of
unused capacity or a risk of abandonment of some developed
areas.
There should be an evaluation of a systems level alternative
which assumes that there would be no population growth in
the region and porbably reduced household formation rates.
This alternative could focus on the relief of existing
pollution problems, and provision of only the additional
capacity and service area necessary to serve expected future
levels of households, assuming virtually no population
growth. This would still allow consistency with the policies
underlying the SEWRPC year 2000 plan.
As indicated in Chapter IV, it would be difficult to prepare
a significantly better alternative population forecast
until the 1980 census data become available. Nonetheless,
consideration of an alternative that reflects the lack
of population growth would serve as a contingency plan.
The following actions on planned interceptors would have
the cummulative effect of mitigating the results of a
planning area population shortfall:
V-2 2
-------
Construction of the Kales Corner Interceptor, accom-
panied by cooperation between New Berlin, DNR, and
SEWRPC to prevent the rate of development in New
Berlin from exceeding 208 Plan forecasts.
No construction of Franklin Northeast Interceptor.
Instead, the six existing pump stations would be
upgraded.
Construction of the Menomonee Falls - Germantown
Interceptor, but qualified by cooperation between
Germantown, DNR, and SEWRPC to limit development
to a level that would allow for contiguous develop-
ment on Milwaukee's Northwest Side.
• No construction of the Oak Creek Interceptor, but
instead, upgrade the Wildwood Creek pump station.
Action on all other interceptors would not affect
a shortfall situation [Northeast Side Relief System,
Underwood Creek, Root River, and Franklin-Muskego).
If the planning area population remains stable (i.e., a
shortfall) during the planning period, then the construction
of facilities designed to accommodate a population increase
(forecast) will result in unused capacity or further
decentralization of Milwaukee City and County.
Implementation of the above mitigating measures would
accommodate a shortfall in regional population by allowing
for contiguous, infill development and by not providing
over-capacity.
If, on the other hand, population trends change and the
SEWRPC forecasts are realized, there would be enough vacant,
sewered land (assuming implementation of mitigating measures)
to supply the planning period forecast development.
However, as infill lots are developed and the choice
of lots in certain areas diminishes, the possibility of
leapfrogging would increase.
The crucial issue involves providing sufficient sewer
capacity to prevent leapfrogging of development outside
the MMSD area, and yet not providing too much capacity
which would siphon development from Milwaukee City and
County.
V-23
-------
LIMITATIONS
This analysis of growth, trends is limited By the data
that had already been gathered or developed by SEWRPC,
MWPAP, or other agencies. Data were not civailable on
annual development for the portions of communities within
and outside the MMSD. Where muncipalities are partly in
and partly out of the MMSD, they have been treated as com-
pletely in the MMSD. Similarly, data were not available
on the locations of housing units constructed with septic
tanks other than on the county level.
V-24
-------
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V-31
-------
CHAPTER VI
ATTITUDES TOWARD
GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT
-------
CHAPTER VI
ATTITUDES TOWARD GROWTH AND DEVELOPjyiENT
This chapter presents a summary of the attitudes and
policies on growth held by each planning area community
that would be affected by the expansion of the MMSD Service
area. They are arranged geographically from southeast
(Oak Creek), clockwise around the suburban ring to the
northeast (Mequon). The City of Milwaukee is discussed
last. The general attitudes of the suburban areas toward
growth are characterized on Table VI-1 and shown on Map VI-1.
OAK CREEK
Oak Creek has a highly favorable attitude toward development
and encourages development of a balanced community of both
industry and residences. Thus far, in conformance with
its 1973 comprehensive plan, Oak Creek's development has
been largely concentrated in the northern, central, and
eastern portions. This is due to its proximity to other
developed areas and historic development. Development
of the southeastern section has been inhibited by a lack
of public water supply since the groundwater is poor in
quality. The comprehensive plan calls for moderate density
development for the City and for the Oak Creek Interceptor
Area. The City has a policy of refusing any additional
sewer lift stations and, instead, requires that all new
subdivisions use existing lift stations or be served with
gravity sewers.
Under the MMSD sewer allocation system, Oak Creek receives
the equivalent of 525 single-family units per year. Its
policy is to split them evenly between single-family/duplex
residences and multi-family/commercial/industrial development.
The City used all of its 1977 and 1978 allocations and
borrowed a very small amount from the following year's
allocation.
Oak Creek has high development standards. Residential
developments must include concrete streets, sidewalks,
curbs, gutters, trees, street lights, storm and sanitary *
sewers. Downspouts must be connected to the storm sewer
system. The expense associated with these improvements
make it more costly to develop in Oak Creek (one developer
estimated costs at 20% higher than in Milwaukee). The
City Engineer estimated that these requirements may account
for about a $4,000 difference in costs between comparably
sized lots in Oak Creek and Franklin.
VI-1
-------
FRANKLIN
Franklin has adopted a pro-development attitude and is
actively encouraging new development. Growth, began to
accelerate in 1970, and the City has had an aggressive
sewer program to accommodate the growth. The City's philo-
sophy is that sewer services should be self-supporting;
consequently, a cost formula was devised to separate
existing sewer users from future ones. Franklin requires
each subdivision to have both sanitary and storm sewers,
curbs, gutters, street trees, and street lighting.
Since the allocation system was enacted, Franklin has
been unable to accommodate developers' demand for lots
with sewer allocations. In 1978, Franklin exceeded its
allocation of 194 additional housing units and borrowed
almost the maximum permitted (40% of its 1979 allocation).
To deal with this situation, Franklin instituted a procedure
whereby a developer must apply for a sewer allocation at
the time a preliminary subdivision plat is filed with the
City. If the City views a certain area as high priority
for development, it may give a developer all of the requested
allocation. At the present time, the City is encouraging
the central portion for development and is using its
allocations accordingly.
MUSKEGO
Muskego has a slow growth attitude and is attempting to
limit development to no more than 150-200 units per year.
This figure was determined by Muskego to be the number
of units Muskego needs to keep the tax rate constant.
Additionally, since 1973, Muskego has experienced various
development moratoria due to insufficient capacity at its
treatment plants.
NEW BERLIN
New Berlin favors contiguous development and has not
placed strict control on new development. Since developers
pay nearly the full cost of sewers, this policy effectively
prevents leapfrogging into more undeveloped areas of the
City.
The City of New Berlin had been attracting approximately
300 new housing units per year, which is the level the City
feels it can adequately serve. The allocation system is
decreasing this number to 226 units per year, and alloca-
tions can only be granted to subdivisions already platted.
It does not appear that the City will have a problem using
VI-2
-------
up its allocation. While the City would like the level
of growth to continue at about 300 units per year after
the allocation expires, it has no explicit policies or
provisions to enforce this level.
HALES CORNERS
Hales Corners is largely developed, with only scattered
lots available for development at this time. There are
approximately 30 acres in the southwest corner of the
Village that will be ready for development after the
Hales Corners Interceptor is built.
For more than a year, there has been a local moratorium
on new development in the area served by the Village's
Pumping Station #1. After the interceptor is constructed,
development can continue in that area. This development
will be of an infill nature.
GREENFIELD
Greenfield is approximately 65% developed, but it has no
large tracts of land left for development. Developers in
Greenfield pay the full cost of sanitary and storm sewers,
water, curbs, and gutters for new subdivisons and the
initial cost of underground wiring. Its requirements are
less stringent than some of the other suburban municipalities,
since sidewalks, street trees, street lights, and dedication
of park land are not required.
There does not appear to be an explicit policy on growth
or on the location of new development within the City.
This is due, primarily, to the fact that Greenfield already
experienced its development boom and the pace of new construc-
tion is beginning to slow down.
WEST ALLIS
West Allis is nearly fully developed and is past its
development boom. The City did not use all of its 397
sewer allocations in 1978. New development is of an
infill nature with a preponderance of multi-family housing,
much of it federally subsidized. There has been scattered
new single-family housing throughout the City at a rate
of about 40-50 units per year.
BROOKFIELD
Brookfield would like to continue to grow with single-
family houses on lots of a minimum of 1/2 acre. The
VI-3
-------
City is encouraging quality development and can accommo-
date a considerable amount of growth, in the western part
(outside of the MMSD planning area}. The eastern third
of Brookfield is 95% developed and the remaining 200 acres
will probably develop, once sewer capacity is available.
In the recent years, Brookfield attracted between 200 and
250 housing units per year and had enough sewer allocations
in the last two years to accommodate all requests. However,
only 25% of the new units built in the City in the last
few years were in the MMSD service area.
ELM GROVE
Elm Grove is almost fully developed and will be able to
accommodate only a few new housing units. There have
been a few new condominium projects in the last few years,
but little additional development is likely. Last year,
according to the Village Assessor, there were only twelve
lot sales.
MENOMONEE FALLS
Menomonee Falls has had a much lower level of development
throughout the decade (especially in the last three years)
as compared to Germantown. This trend is due largely
to Menomonee Falls' policy on sewer extensions which
has limited the number and location of collector sewers
within the Village.
The Village has an interceptor sewer tax (which is collected
with real estate taxes) for the construction of future
sanitary sewers over eight inches. When established in
1967, the rate was 50£ per $1,000 of assessed value and
remains at the same rate today. The Village Engineer
indicated that, even after the MMSD connection, the inter-
ceptor tax will allow the addition of only 140 new housing
units/year which must be adjacent to already sewered areas.
The Village will not pay to extend sewers through agricultu-
ral or undeveloped land to serve a new subdivision, and will
not assess property owners for the cost of a sewer that
crosses their land. As a result, unless a tract of land
is adjacent to a sewer, the Village will not extend sewer
service to it. This-means that, in many cases, developers
may not be able to develop their land for a housing project
because the Village will not extend sewers to the property.
As long as this policy remains in effect Menomonee Falls
will limit the number of new housing units to approximately
140 units/year.
VI-4
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GERMANTOWN
The Village of German-town would like its growth, to be slow
and steady. The Village contracted with SEWRPC to prepare
a master plan for Germantown. Local planners are considering
new zoning, land planning, and agricultural land preservation
programs to attempt to shape Germantown's development.
Germantown is not under the MMSD allocation system; its own
treatment plant is almost at capacity. Germantown's subdi-
vision regulations are less strict than many other municipa-
lities. Subdivisions are only required to have sewer,
water, street trees, and yard lights, but not sidewalk
and curbs.
THIENSVILLE
Thiensville is almost completely developed. Approximately
40 new housing units can be constructed before Thiensville
will be fully developed. The additional units will be
delayed for several years due to a moratorium on the
Village's sewage treatment plant.
MEQUON
Mequon has much vacant land and will be able to accommodate
a substantial amount of new development. The City wants
to control its growth and is developing growth management
techniques to ensure slow, steady development of 225 to
250 housing units per year. The City is employing the
concept of urban service areas delineated by limit lines.
No sewers, water extensions, or other urban service would
be permitted beyond these limit lines. The City is also
trying to encourage contiguous development and infill
of vacant land within the urban service areas.
In addition, the City is in the process of forming a
municipal water utility to relieve problems associated
with low water tables in some areas of Mequon. Inadequate
water supply has retarded development in the areas east
of the Milwaukee River. In about two years, the utility
will be operating and should alleviate existing problems.
After Mequon's sewer and water problems are solved, its
growth management plans will be put to the test. The
potential for development is high.
MILWAUKEE
The City of Milwaukee would like to see additional develop-
ment within its borders. The decline in population in
VI-5
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Milwaukee is continuing, although, at a slower rate than
in the past. However, the number of households has stabil-
lized.
The Northwest Side of the City has the largest amount of
vacant land. This is the area that has experienced the
largest amount of new development in the past five years,
with a majority of the City's unsubsidized, single-family
housing starts. The City has taken a neutral position
as far as development of the Northwest Side is concerned.
It is not explicitly encouraging growth, though it is faci-
litating new development by extending the supply of municipal
services. However, most of the City's efforts have been
toward implementing central city revitalization, rather than
promoting the development of the Northwest Side.
The City is undertaking an industrial development program
on the Northwest Side. It is landbanking vacant industrial
land, and is offering a variety of incentives to companies
to locate there. Approximately 50 acres of industrial land
are absorbed per year in this area. This is an indication
that the private sector is responding to their efforts.
TABLE VI-1
COMMUNITY GROWTH ATTITUDES, DEVELOPING SUBURBS
Pro Growth. Few restrictions beyond zoning and subdivision
regulations. High willingness to extend services as
developers demand, although contiguity may still be required,
New Berlin
Germantown
Oak Creek (high subdivision standards limit market)
Franklin
Geographically Directed Growth. Explicit preference for
development in certain areas. Preference given to those
areas by use of sewer allocations, trunk extensions, and
other policies.
Franklin (Central) -
Germantown CSouth Central)
Mequon (Southeast)
Limited Growth. Explicit attempt to limit the number of
units each year by policies and actions other than the
allocation system.
Muskego
Menomonee Falls
Mequon
VI-6
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MAP Vl-i
SUBURBAN GROWTH ATTITUDES
GERMANTOWN
(JHIENSVILLE
MILWAUKEE CO. ( BAYSIOE
BROWNRIVER
D6ER
GLENOALE
Wt-MTEFlSH
BAY
MILWAUKEE
WEST
MILWAUKEE
ST. FRANCIS
NEW BERLIN
..»•
HALES CORNERS
GREENDALEl
SOUTH
MILWAUKEE
MUSKEGO
OAK CREEK
FRANKUN
Pro Growth
Geographically
Directed Growth
Li mired Growth
MMSD Planning Arec
RACINE CO.
VI-7
Source : RERC
-------
LOCAL OFFICIALS INTERVIEWED
Brookfield
James Brown, Assessor, February 1979.
Bill Muth, Director of Public Works, February 1979,
Clark Wangerin, Engineer, February 1979.
Elm Grove
Henry Yulga, Assessor, February 1979.
Franklin
John Bennett, Engineer, March 15, 1979.
Germantown
John MacKinnon, Engineer, May 15, 1979.
Joe Nigbor, Building Inspector, August 29, 1979.
Robert Packee, Village President, May 15, 1979.
Greenfield
Raymond Dwyer, Engineer, June 5, 1979.
Hales Corners
Jim Bacon, Village Commissioner, June 4, 1979.
Elmer Faehrman, Public Works Director, June 4, 1979,
Menomonee Falls
Bill Freisleben, Planning Engineer, May 15, 1979.
Fred Gottlieb, Village Manager, May 15, 1979.
Max Vogt, Director of Public Works, May 16, 1979.
Mequon
James Dollhausen, Planner, August 3, 1979
Mayor James Hanley, August 3, 1979.
Donal Roensch, Engineer, May 16, 1979.
-------
Milwaukee
Tom Miller, Senior Planner, Division of Comprehensive
Planning and Programming, Department of City Development,
August 10, 1979.
Jenann Olson, Director, Division of Comprehensive Planning
and Programming, Department of City Development,
August 10, 1979.
Jim Sherer, Division of Economic Development, Department
of City Development, August 28, 1979.
Mary Stott, Associate Planner, Division of Comprehensive
Planning and Programming, Department of City Development,
August 10, 1979.
Muskego
Mayor Jerome Gottfried, March 15, 1979.
Dan Nowak, Building Inspection Department, March 14, 1979
New Berlin
John Graber, Engineer, June 5, 1979.
Rick Kuckkahn, Planner, June 5, 1979.
Oak Creek
Thomas Martens, City Council President, March 29, 1979.
Paul Milewski, Director of Planning and Industrial
Development, March 29, 1979.
Frank Wellstein, Engineer, March 29, 1979.
Thiensville
Quinten Laabs, Village Administrator, September 19, 1979,
West Allis
John Schumacher, Engineer, June 4, 1979.
Elgar Williams, Planner, June 4, 1979.
-------
PRIVATE SECTOR INTERVIEWS
1. Marie Anderson, American INVSCO, August 29, 1979.
2. Mary Antonovich, Real Estate Associates, August 29, 1979.
3. Armbruster Builders, August 29, 1979.
4. Joe Bellin, Towne Realty, March 29, 1979.
5. Chip Bence, JBJ Construction, May 16, 1979.
6. Jerome Bence, Jerome Bence Realty, May 16, 1979.
7. Anton Benkowski, Unishelter, Inc., March 16, 1979.
8. Ken Berke, President, National Survey and Engineering,
June 4, 1979.
9. Bielinski Bros, (builders), August 29, 1979.
10. Philip DeHaas, Riordan and DeHaas Realty, June 4, 1979.
11. James Deshur-Dinkin Co. (builder/developer), March
29, 1979.
12. Excellency Homes, August 29, 1979.
13. Mel Goldin, Rech-Goldin-Siegel Properties, August 10, 1979.
14. Daniel Harrigan, R.J. Harrigan Co., February 15, 1979.
15. Dick Hochschild, Marshall and Ilsley Bank (Regal Manor
developer), June 6, 1979.
16. Dorothy Knapp, Thomson Realty (developer), June 4, 1979.
17. Jeff LaBonte, Rite Realty, March 16, 1979.
18. Don Mechelke, DM Builders, May 15, 1979.
19__. William Meilke, Ruekert and Meilke Inc., Consulting
Engineers, March 15, 1979.
20. Gayle Rzany, Towne Realty, August 29, 1979.
21. George Simons, Sidney Kohl Co., August 10, 1979.
22. Joel Starck, Math Starck and Sons (contractor/developer),
June 5, 1979.
23. John Vincent, Siepmann Realty Corporation, February 15, 1979
24. Jack Watson, Wauwatosa Realty, February 1979.
25. Widt Dittmar Real Estate, August 29, 1979.
26. Phyllis Wilson, Embassy Realty, August 29, 1979.
27. Mark Wimmer, Wimmer-Blatter (builder/developer),
March 15, 1979.
28. Steve Woll, Director, Metropolitan Builders Association,
February 15, 1979.
-------
CHAPTER VII
DEVELOPMENT EFFECTS:
NO ACTION ALTERNATIVE
-------
CHAPTER VII
DEVELOPMENT EFFECTS: NO ACTION ALTERNATIVE
The No Action Alternative is defined as no capital improve-
ments by any governmental or private entity, other than those
already funded. Current levels of operation and maintenance
are permitted, with some improvements allowed where current
operational practices are sub-standard. The urban develop-
ment impacts of No Action are of two types: first, No
Action will have an impact on the levels and character of
development in the areas proposed for expansion of service;
second, No Action will result in shifting some of the
forecast regional development to areas where sewer service
or other treatment methods are already available.
IMPACTS ON FUTURE SERVICE AREAS
Mequon
Under No Action, little development can occur in Mequon.
There are several development moratoria in effect due to
discharge problems, bypassing, and inadequate water supply
in some parts of the Village. Thus, only 200 new housing
units are likely to be permitted and these would be built
within the next year. These 200 units would be adjacent
to already developed areas and are expected to be on sewered
lots. This is the result of Mequon's growth management
policies in which urban service areas have been delineated.
There will not be any septic development since soils in
Mequon are poor for septic systems.
Germantown
There is little capacity remaining in the Germantown treat-
ment plant, and once that capacity is committed, no new deve-
lopment can be served. Between 1979 and 1990, only 253
units would be permitted (subdivisions already platted),
for an addition of 759 people in Germantown. The 253
additional housing units would be built in southern German-
town adjacent to the existing development. All of the deve-
lopment would be sewered, since the soils in Germantown
are not suitable for septic systems.
Brookfield/Elm Grove
Under No Action, the same number of housing units can be
developed as under the Action alternative CUnderwood
Creek Interceptor). There is very little land remaining
for development in the service area. The land that is
remaining can be developed with or without the interceptor,
VII-1
-------
since the interceptor's function is relief, not expansion.
A total of 400 units are expected to be built, which, would
lead to an increase in population of 1,458 persons. These
new units are likely to be single-family houses on 1/2-acre
lots. They would be adjacent to existing development
and would be served by sewers.
New Berlin
Under No Action, a limited amount of development could
occur in New Berlin. There is additional capacity at the
Regal Manor plant in southern New Berlin for 612 more housing
units. There is also capacity with existing sewers in
the Wildcat Creek service area in eastern New Berlin and
in the Poplar Creek service area in western New Berlin.
The latter will provide capacity for a limited amount
of development later on in the planning period. Between
1979 and 1990, it is likely that 2,024 housing units would
be built in New Berlin, which would result in a population
increase of 6,883. The development that is expected to
occur would be sewered since New Berlin's soils are not
suitable for septic systems.
Muskego
Under No Action, a small amount of development would be
possible in Muskego (450 units between 1979 and 1990).
Muskego's population would increase by only 291 because
of the projected decline in household size in Muskego over
the planning period. Almost all of this development would
be single-family houses on large lots with septic systems,
since Muskego's treatment plants are nearly at capacity.
These units would be scattered throughout the far northwest
corner of Muskego since this is the only area where soils
are suitable for septic systems. The scattered pattern
of development in Muskego under No Action would be inconsis-
tent with the policies of the Regional Plan.
Franklin (Within the Franklin-Muskego Interceptor Area)
Under No Action, continued development would occur in the
Franklin portion of the interceptor area. Sewage would
continue to be pumped through the St. Martin's lift station
to MMSD. During the planning period, an estimated 525
units would be built in the Franklin portion of the inter-
ceptor area. The northwest section of Franklin would
be developed almost fully by 1990. The development in
this part of Franklin is likely to be single-family houses
at medium density, with some multi-family development as
well. It is expected to be sewered and would be contiguous
VII-2
-------
to the existing development. Franklin's soils are generally
unsuitable for septic systems. This is only a small portion
of the development that is likely to occur in Franklin.
There is a large quantity of vacant land already served
with sewers in central Franklin, and the greatest proportion
of new development will occur there under any alternative.
Oak Creek
The No Action alternative would permit the same level of
development to occur in the City of Oak Creek, overall,
as permitted under the Action alternative. This is because
there is ample capacity throughout Oak Creek for the pro-
jected increases in population and housing. However, within
the Oak Creek Interceptor Area, there is very little capacity
left in the Wildwood lift station and only 90 new units
would be accommodated. This would be a population increase
of 257. The limited development would be medium density
residential and would be adjacent to the existing develop-
ment. No septic development is likely, due to poor soil
conditions and local regulations.
DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS
As a result of No Action, future housing growth that is
planned (SEWRPC 2000 Land Use Plan) in the proposed inter-
ceptor Service areas could not occur. By the year 1990,
6,300 new housing units that might have been accommodated
in the interceptor Service Areas would have to develop
elsewhere. This "displaced" development could shift to
areas within the existing Sewer Service Area, such as the
Northwest Side of Milwaukee, Menomonee Falls, the Wildcat
Creek Area of New Berlin, parts of Greenfield, Central
Franklin, and much of Oak Creek: SEWRPC forecasts a growth
of 13,000 units in these areas between the years 1990 and
2000, assuming no expansion of existing facilities.
Thus, these presently sewered areas could be developed,
between 1980 and 1990, to the year 2000 levels without
overtaxing the existing Sewerage facilities. The 6,300
units that could not occur in the proposed interceptor Ser-
vice areas between now and 1990 could be accomodated in
these above mentioned areas in addition to their planned
1990 development. Much of this growth would have to occur
on small, infill parcels of land. Between 1990 and 2000,
an additional 11,000 housing units would be "displaced"
from their planned locations. By this time, the housing
growth would have to shift out of the planning area.
Developers are looking for sewered lots and, in some cases,
may find them outside of the MMSD planning area in localities,
such as Cedarburg, Hartland, Grafton, Waukesha, Oconomowoc,
VII-3
-------
and Pewaukee. State regulations currently are discouraging
new septic tank development to such, a degree that No
Action would not precipitate significant leapfrog develop-
ment on septic tanks.
Under No Action, it is expected that lot prices may continue
to escalate in those suburbs where capacity is available,
since there will be a premium on sewered, suburban lots.
Selection of the No Action alternative for some areas and
not for others could reduce the potential for leapfrogging.
Facilities proposed in four areas are essentially relief
facilities, with some room for expansion (Northeast Side
Relief, Franklin-Muskego Interceptor, Underwood Creek
Interceptor, and Root River Interceptor). If those four
were constructed and No Action was chosen for the four
that are principally expansion facilities, ample area
would be available to absorb growth well into the 1990s.
If any significant shortfall materializes from SEWRPC
projections, as discussed elsewhere, it is likely that
this would provide ample capacity for the entire planning
period. See Table VII-1.
VII-4
-------
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VII-5
-------
CHAPTER VIII
PRIVATE PLANTS
-------
CHAPTER VIII
SECONDARY GROWTH IMPACTS: PRIVATE PLANTS
SUMMARY
Future Control of
Capacity Hook-up
Areas
Along
Connection
Muskego Rendering No
Sisters of Notre Dame No
St. Martin's
Truck Stop No
Chalet-on-the
Lake Restaurant No
Highway 100
Drive-in Theatre No
New Berlin
Memorial Hospital No
Cleveland Heights
Grade School No
Wisconsin Electric
Power Company No
CONCLUSION
Muskego
DNR (Mequon)
Franklin
Mequon
Franklin
New Berlin
New Berlin
Unsewered
Unsewered
Unsewered
Unsewered
Unsewered
Unsewered
Unsewered
DNR (WPDES permit) Unsewered
Based on the fact that: (1) the private plants do not have
any future capacity; (2) the hook-ups will be made to already
planned sewers with only 8-inch pipes; and (3) the hook-ups
are controlled by the local community, no secondary growth
impacts can be anticipated. A synopsis of the current
situation, the selected alternative, and the local level
considerations for each of the nine private plants follows.
MUSKEGO RENDERING COMPANY PLANT
Current Situation
The private wastewater treatment plant which serves the
Muskego Rendering Company is designed to provide treatment
for the process waters and operating personnel of the
company. It is located in a portion of the City of Muskego
which is not currently provided with centralized sanitary
sewer service.
VIII-1
-------
Selected Alternative
The alternative selected for Muskego Rendering would be a
connection to the existing MIS via a force main with one
lift station. Since the rendering waste has very high
BOD and suspended solids loading, some pretreatment would
be required. The pretreated waste could be pumped south
and east along Janesville Road, 9,600 feet to the Muskego
sanitary sewer system.
Local Level Considerations
The Rendering Company has no known plans for future expansion,
Alternatives are being investigated by the Muskego Rendering
Company to expand the treated effluent disposal capabilities
to match the treatment plant design capacity. The major
components of the existing plant are all in good to excellent
condition and are expected to remain in use through the
planning period. It is assumed that the treatment plant
is capable of providing a quality of effluent equivalent
to its existing effluent limitations.
Future Capacity: No
Hook-Up Control: Muskego (local community)
Areas Along Connection: Unsewered
SISTERS OF NOTRE DAME ACADEMY PLANT
Current Situation
The private wastewater treatment plant which serves the
Sisters of Notre Dame Academy is designed to provide waste-
water treatment for the school and convent which had a
1978 resident population of approximately 200 persons.
It is located in a portion of the City of Mequon which
does not have centralized sanitary sewer service.
Selected Alternative
Upgrading the operation and maintenance of the existing
treatment plant is the selected alternative for the Sisters
of Notre Dame. No additional land would be required, and
there would be no changes in the influent and effluent
locations. However, a solids handling unit is needed.
This could be accomplished by utilizing the existing sludge
holding tank and trucking the solids to a land application
site or to a dumping site in a sewer system.
VIII-2
-------
Local Level Considerations
The plant should have enough hydraulic capacity through
the end of the planning period. The plant is currently
meeting its effluent limitation, and the major structural
treatment components are all expected to last to the end
of the planning period. A chlorine contact chamber sized
to the capacity of the existing treatment plant is expected
to be in operation in the near future. However, a solids
handling program will need to be initiated in the future.
A sludge holding tank exists, but is not currently used.
If the holding tank is used, sludge hauling to a nearby
landfill site could provide a satisfactory solids handling
program.
Future Capacity: No
Hook-Up Control: DNR (Mequon)
ST. MARTIN'S TRUCK STOP
Current Situation
The private wastewater treatment plant which serves the
St. Martin's Truck Stop is designed to provide wastewater
treatment for the truck stop. The truck stop is located
in a portion of the City of Franklin currently not provided
with centralized sanitary sewer service.
The St. Martin's Truck Stop does not have a Wisconsin
Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (WPDES) Permit.
The truck stop has recently changed ownership. The new
owners have not obtained a discharge permit and no monitoring
data is available. The Department of Natural Resources
is taking legal action against the owners of the truck
stop in order to require a WPDES Permit.
Selected Alternative
The selected alternative for the St. Martin's Truck Stop
is connection to the Franklin local system. A gravity
lateral would convey the wastewater to the Franklin system.
A temporary storage tank is recommended until the connection
is complete.
Local Level Considerations
Available information from the Wisconsin DNR indicates
that this plant is in poor condition. The plant is not
VIII-3
-------
operating and little maintenance has been performed.
It is doubtful that this plant can be economically repaired
and put back into operation. The truck stop currently
discharges without the necessary WPDES permit issued by
the Wisconsin DNR for all wastewater discharges to surface
waters.
Future Capacity: No
Hook-Up Control: Franklin (local community)
Areas Along Connection: Unsewered
CHALET-ON-THE-LAKE RESTAURANT PLANT
Current Situation
The Chalet-on-the-Lake Restaurant is located in Ozaukee
County on a bluff above Lake Michigan. The restaurant
maintains a private treatment plant. The treatment plant,
which was constructed in 1956, consists of primary clarifi-
cation, anaerobic sludge digestion and effluent chlorination.
Effluent is discharged to Lake Michigan. No effluent monitor-
ing data is available. The restaurant is open for only
a few hours per day, causing an intermittent loading to
the treatment plant.
Selected Alternative
Connection to the Mequon local system is the selected
alternative for the Chalet-on-the-Lake Restaurant plant.
Conveyance would be provided through 4,300 feet of force
main and a small lift station. ,The route of the connection
will run west from the existing plant to Lake Shore Drive
and south to a local sewer.
Local Level Considerations
The Chalet-on-the-Lake Restaurant has been recommended for
connection to the local sewers at the earliest possible
date.
Future Capacity: No
Hook-Up Control: Mequon (local communtiy)
Areas Along Connection: Unsewered
VIII-4
-------
HIGHWAY 100 DRIVE-IN THEATER PLANT
Current Situation
The private wastewater treatment plant which serves the
Highway 100 Drive-in Theater is designed to provide waste-
water treatment for the theater. It is located in a portion
of the City of Franklin which is not provided with centralized
sanitary sewage service.
Selected Alternative
The selected alternative for the theater is a gravity
connection to the Franklin Local System. The connection
would run northeast from the drive-in's existing plant across
a field to a local sewer in South 84th Street.
Local Level Considerations
Available information indicates this plant is in poor
condition and receiving little, if any, maintenance.
Neither the septic tank, sand filter or absorption pond
are expected to remain useful treatment components.
No water quality or flow monitoring data is available.
Future Capacity: No
Hook-Up Control: Franklin (local community)
Areas Along Connection: Unsewered
NEW BERLIN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL PLANT
Current Situation
The private wastewater treatment plant which serves the
New Berlin Memorial Hospital is designed to provide waste-
water treatment for the patients and staff of the 132
bed hospital. It is located in a portion of the City
of New Berlin which is currently not provided with centra-
lized sanitary sewer service.
Selected Alternative
The selected alternative will be a gravity lateral connected
to a local sewer that is planned along National Avenue.
Future Capacity: No
Hook-Up Control: New Berlin (local community)
Areas Along Connection: Unsewered
VIII-5
-------
CLEVELAND HEIGHTS GRADE SCHOOL PLANT
Current Situation
The private wastewater treatment plant which serves the
Cleveland Heights Grade School is designed to provide
wastewater treatment for an enrollment of 428 students
and the faculty of the school. The school has no cooking
facilities, so the wastewater is primarily from showers
and domestic wastes. The school is located in that portion
of the City of New Berlin currently not provided with
centralized sanitary sewage services.
Selected Alternative
The selected alternative consists of a lift station and
2,000 feet of force main along Cleveland Avenue in order
to connect to the New Berlin Local System.
Future Capacity: No
Hook-Up Control: New Berlin (local community)
Areas Along Connection: Unsewered
WISCONSIN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY (WEPCO) - Oak Creek Plant
Current Situation
The private wastewater treatment plant which serves the
Wisconsin Electric Power Company - Oak Creek Power Plant
is designed to provide wastewater treatment for the approxi-
mately 450 operating personnel of the power plant. The
plant handles the domestic sanitary and shower facilities'
flows. The power plant is located in the City of Oak
Creek and operates three shifts with a maximum of 300
personnel on duty at any time.
Selected Alternative
Upgrading the operation and maintenance of the existing
plant is the selected alternative. There would be no
additional land required and no change in influent and
effluent locations. Waste activated sludge is stored and
land-applied in Germantown.
Local Level Considerations
The plant is capable of providing a secondary level of
wastewater treatment. An onsite investigation of the
VIII-6
-------
existing wastewater treatment plant found the treatment
process components and existing structures to be in gene-
rally good to excellent condition. Auxiliary power for
the treatment plant is supplied from the power plant.
Expansion of the power plant is not foreseen, and future
wastewater flows to the treatment plant are not expected
to increase.
Future Capacity: No
Hook-Up Control: DNR (WPDES permit)
VIII-7
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CHAPTER IX
INDIRECT FISCAL EFFECTS
-------
CHAPTER IX
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SECONDARY GROWTH IMPACTS: INDIRECT FISCAL EFFECTS
Methodology
Introduction
Analysis of Fiscal Effects
Menomonee Falls, Germantown, and Northwest Milwaukee
Introduction
Summary of Alternative Development Patterns
School Districts: Service and Costs
Municipal Services and Costs
Revenues
Menomonee Falls
Fiscal Effects of Secondary Growth Impacts
Summary
New Berlin
Introduction
Summary of Growth Development Patterns
School District Services and Costs
Municipal Services and Costs
Revenues
Fiscal Effects of Secondary Growth Impacts
Summary
Oak Creek
Introduction
Summary of Growth Development Patterns
Impact of New Residential Development
on the School District
Impact of New Residential Development
on City Services
Summary
Summary
IX-1
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CHAPTER IX
SECONDARY GROWTH IMPACTS: INDIRECT FISCAL EFFECTS
METHODOLOGY
The method used for estimating the indirect fiscal impacts
is designed to:
1. Specify Development Effects of Each Alternative
Development impacts were outlined, regarding the
location and pattern of growth, and the mix of housing.
2. Analyze Services and Capacities
Interviews were held with school district and
municipal officials to gather data on existing
capacities, the facilities' needs, and, to some
extent, costs.
3. Analyze and Estimate Costs
Using budget documents, interview data, public
agency and industry sources, both operating and
capital costs for school and municipal services
were estimated.
4. Estimate Revenues
Total revenues from the new development were cal-
culated, including property 'tax revenues, per pupil,
and per capita revenues.
5. Compare Costs and Revenues
Estimated future revenues minus estimated future costs
indicated net indirect fiscal impacts for the Action
and No Action alternatives.
Both municipal and public educational services are covered
by this analysis. Municipal services include general
administration, public safety, parks and recreation, and
other specific community services. Public education includes
primary and secondary eduction. Costs to other levels of
government to provide services were not included.
The reader should note that, in the discussions of net fiscal
effects, all net costs are enclosed in parenthesis. For
example, a line reading:
Net Revenues (costs): $56,387
indicates a revenue, whereas a line reading
Net Revenues (costs): ($64,142)
indicates a cost.
IX-2
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INTRODUCTION
An analysis of the proposed interceptor sewers, and alternative
means of increasing sewer service in the planning area,
identified three areas where secondary growth impacts were
possible. Indirect fiscal effects, the public service costs
and revenues associated with future development, were analyzed
for the three areas. Those areas are served by the Menomonee
Falls-Germantown Interceptor (Village of Germantown and the
Northwest Side of Milwaukee), the Hales Corners Interceptor
(City of New Berlin), and the Oak Creek Interceptor (City of
Oak Creek).
This section examines the public service costs and revenues
associated with the projected residential development occurring
under the Action and No Action alternatives. Different levels
and patterns of residential development will impact the pro-
vision of municipal and public school services in different
ways.
IX-3
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ANALYSIS OF FISCAL EFFECTS
MENOMONEE FALLS, GERMANTOWN, AND NORTHWEST MILWAUKEE
Introduction
Within both Germantown and the Northwest Side of Milwaukee,
the projected amount of additional residential development
varies by alternative. The Action Alternative is projected
to generate an additional 2,773 dwelling units in Germantown
between 1979 and 1990, and 6,687 units in Milwaukee. The No
Action Alternative is projected to produce an additional 253
units in Germantown in the same period, and 7,807 units in
Milwaukee. Under either alternative, Menomonee Falls will
see an increase of 1,540 dwelling units between 1979 and
1990. Therefore, Menomonee Falls is not directly affected
by the proposed project.
Summary of Alternative Development Patterns
The proposed Menomonee Falls-Germantown Interceptor would
provide service to the Village of Germantown and small
portions of Menomonee Falls and the Northwest Side of the
City of Milwaukee. These three areas constitute an interrelated
area from the standpoint of housing and other urban development.
Germantown has a number of features that make it attractive
for development. These include accessiblity to jobs on the
Northwest Side of Milwaukee and Menomonee Falls, a large
amount of vacant land, and a range of single-family and
multi-family housing opportunities. One of the reasons
Germantown's development occurred as rapidly as it did was
because sewer capacity was available there and not in
neighboring Menomonee Falls. When development in Germantown
was constrained because of inadequate treatment capacity at
its own plant, the Northwest Side's share of development
increased.
With the interceptor, Germantown is expected to add 2,773
housing units between 1979 and 1990, while under No Action,
only 253 units are likely to be added. This is an induced
growth of 2,520 housing units. In population terms, this
alternative causes a difference of 7,560 people. No Action
would lead to an addition of 759 people while Action would
increase Germantown"s population by 8,319 people between
1979 and 1990.
In Menomonee Falls, under both Action and No Action, 1,540
additional housing units are likely to be built during the
planning period. This is an addition of 5,431 people in in
Menomonee Falls between 1979 and 1990.
IX-4
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For the Northwest Side of Milwaukee, the EIS study team
determined that the high level of development likely in
Germantown, under Action, could cause a decline in develop-
ment in the Northwest Side. Under Action, the Northwest
Side would experience development of 6,687 units, while
under No Action, the number would be 7,807 housing units.
Thus, 1,120 fewer units would be built in the Northwest Side
if the interceptor is constructed. In terms of population,
there would be 3,136 fewer people in the Northwest Side if
the interceptor is built. Under Action, an addition of
12,344 people is likely, while under No Action, 15,480
people are forecast for the Northwest Side between 1979 and
1990. Tables IX-1, IX-2, and IX-3 summarize alternative
household and population projections and forecasts for
Germantown, the Northwest Side of Milwaukee, and Menomonee
Falls.
The single-family/multi-family distribution of projected
development and the average unit market values are used to
calculate estimated property tax revenues. Market information
is based on discussions with area builders, developers and
realtors, building permit data, land prices, and local plans
(although multi-family projects will be both rentals and
condominiums, a single average unit market value has been
employed in calculating estimated property tax revenues).
With Action or No Action, it is likely that single-family
residences (on 1/4 to 1/3-acre lots) and some multi-family
projects will be built in Germantown. Building permit data
for 1970 through 1978 indicates that 52% of the permits were
for single-family units and 43% for multi-family units. In
the report, A Plan for the Jefferson Park Neighborhood
(SEWRPC, 1978), the proposed residential distribution for
that neighborhood is 62% single-family (including duplexes).
For purposes of this analysis, the Jefferson Park neighborhood
plan estimate of new residential distribution has been con-
sidered representative of development in Germantown. Thus,
it is assumed that 60% of the new units will be single-
family residences with an average unit market value (including
land) of $95,000. The remaining 40% of the projected new
units will be multi-family, with an average unit market
value of $65,000.
Development on the Northwest Side of the City of Milwaukee
is expected to follow trends indicated by building permit
information for the years 1970 through 1978. Therefore,
25% of the new units are expected to be single-family re-
sidences with an average unit market value of $65,000. The
majority of the units, 75%, will be multi-family with an
average unit market value of $50,000.
-5
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TABLE IX-1
INDUCED GROWTH: GERMANTOWN
Base-1979
Households
Population
Increment
1979-1985
Households
Population
1985
Households
Population
Increment
1985-1990
Households
Population
1990
Households
Population
2000
Households
Population
Action
3,419
10,257
973
2,919
4,392
13,176
1,800
5,400
6,192
18,576
No SEWRPC
Action Plan
3,419 3,419**
10,257 10,257**
253 1,237**
759 7,143**
3,672 4,656
11,016 17,400
0 1,305
0 4,267
3,672 5,961*
11,016 21,667*
8,572
30,200
* Interpolation from 1985 to 2000.
** 1979 estimates are not available from SEWRPC: RERC estimates
have been employed to develop incremental figures for 1979-1985.
Note: Yearly dates as of January 1.
Source: RERC projections, SEWRPC Plan.
IX-6
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TABLE IX-2
INDUCED GROWTH: NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CITY OF MILWAUKEE
Action
No Action
SEWRPC
Plan
City of
Milwaukee
Forecasts
Base
1979
Households
Population
Increment
1979-1985
Households
Population
1985
Households
Population
Increment
1985-1990
Households
Population
1990
Households
Population
2000
Households
Population
23,900
73,300
4,187
8,152
28,087
81,452
2,500
4,192
30,587
85,644
23,900
73,300
4,507
9,080
28,407
82,380
3,300
6,400
31,707
88,780
NA
NA
NA
NA
24,483
71,002
2,960
5,914
27,433*
76,916*
33,363
88,745
23,900
73,300
4,998
10,488
28,898
83,788
4,165
8,737
33,063*
92,525*
41,400
110,000-
115,000
* Interpolation from 1985 to 2000.
Note: Because the Base 1979 estimates would signify
a decline in population between 1979 and 1985
when used in conjunction with the SEWRPC Plan
estimates, costs and revenues for these estimates
have not been calculated.
Source: RERC projections; SEWRPC Plan; City of Milwaukee
projection
NA - Not Applicable. 1979 estimates are not available.
IX-7
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TABLE IX-3
INDUCED GROWTH: MENOMONEE FALLS
Base-1979
Households
Population
Increment
1979-1985
Households
Population
1985
Households
Population
Increment
1985-1990
Households
Population
1990
Households
Population
2000
Households
Population
Action
8,911
33,238
700
2,590
10,451
38,669
No Action
8,911
33,238
840
2,841
9,751
36,079
840
2,841
9,751
36,079
700
2,590
10,451
38,669
SEWRPC Plan
8,911**
33,238**
2,761**
10,762**
11,672
44,000
1,665
5,733
13,337*
49,733*
16,662
61,200
* Interpolation from 1985 to 2000.
** 1979 Estimates not available from SEWRPC;
RERC estimates have been employed to develop
incremental figures for 1979-1985.
Note: Yearly dates are as of January 1.
Source: RERC projections; SEWRPC Plan
IX-8
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School Districts: Services and Costs
The additional costs of new residential development to the
school districts is a function of the number of new students
that would be enrolled and the capacity of the districts to
handle these pupils. This section analyzes the service
levels of the Germantown and Milwaukee school districts,
estimates number of students generated by the residential
development alternatives, and calculates operating and
capital costs to the school districts related to these
alternatives. The two school districts are discussed
separately.
Germantown; The Germantown School District provides public
education, through seven elementary schools (grades K-5),
with an additional one under construction^, one middle
school (grades 6-8), and one high school (grades 9-12).
There is an enrollment of 3,465 students from the five towns
within the district" two-thirds of the students are from
Germantown. Average enrollment for the elementary schools
is 190 students. The middle school has an enrollment of 700
students and the high school has 1,250 students. All schools
are operating at their designed capacity according to school
district officials.
For purposes of enrollment projections and planning, the
school district uses a rough measure of 1.4 students per
household. Approximately 22% of school-age children living
in the district attend private or parochial schools. Using
these estimates, the number of students generated by the
alternative residential development patterns are shown in
Table IX-4.
'The Amy Belle school is being reconstructed—the
original building expansion program was modified because of
a fire. Projected completion date of the new building is
early 1980.
IX-9
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TABLE IX-4
NUMBER OF STUDENTS GENERATED
BY ALTERNATIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES:
GERMANTOWN
Number of Number of
Number of Additional Additional
Additional School-Age Public School
Households- Children in Students in
Alternatives 1990 1990 1990
Action 2,773 3,882 3,028
No Action 253 354 276
Note: Calculations based on average of 1.4 school-age
children per household and 78% of school-age
children attending public schools.
Source: RERC
Table IX-5 gives annual operating costs for 1990 by development
alternative.
TABLE IX-5
1990 ANNUAL SCHOOL DISTRICT
OPERATING COSTS ATTRIBUTABLE TO
NEW RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT:
GERMANTOWN
Number of
Additional Public Annual Operating
Alternative School Students in 1990 Costs in 1990
Action 3,028 $ 6,249,792
No Action 276 $ 569,664
Note: Calculations based on a per student operating cost of
$2,064.
Source: RERC
Under 'the No Action Alternative, there would be a net addition
of 276 students by 1990. Absorbing an average of approximately
25 students a year is not likely to require complete new
school buildings if the students were distributed throughout
the Village of Germantown. Nonetheless, it is likely there
could be some capital costs for additions to existing
facilities.
IX-10
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Under the Action Alternative, the number of additional
students generated by new residential development almost
doubles the total enrollment of the school district. We
have, therefore, estimated the average per student cost of
constructing elementary, middle, and high schools Cincluding
the cost of interest on school bond issues} to arrive at an
annual capital cost. (Any state or federal aids related to
construction costs have not been factored into the calculations.)
The cost of new facilities is calculated based on local
policies and accepted standards and guidelines. According
to the Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction, the
average construction cost for new schools in the Milwaukee
metropolitan area is $42-$45 per square foot. Additions to
existing schools generally cost less. There are local
guidelines on school sites sizes in the district.
For grades K-5, the Germantown School District uses a site
size of 5 to 10 acres (similar to the national standard of
10 acres plus 1 acre per 100 students)- for middle schools,
40-50 acres" and, for high schools 50-plus acres. The
district trys to get the developer of a subdivision to
donate land, but there are no exact policies or formulas for
land dedication or fees in lieu of land.
The document Public Service Costs and Development (Wisconsin
State Planning Office, 1975) uses a standard of 90 square
feet of space per student for K-8 schools and 150 square
feet of space for high schools. These figures include
classroom and ancillary space, such as hallways, administrative
offices, and the like.
Converting these construction costs to an annual per student
capital expenditure requires further assumptions regarding
the financing of the facilities. It is assumed that the
construction of these facilities would be financed through
a bond issue. Current market rates for a Wisconsin school
district with an A credit rating would be about 7 1/4% for a
20-year term. Compounded semi-annually, the annual constant
would be .0955.
Using these guidelines, standards, and assumptions, the
annual capital expenditures can be calculated.
2
Source: Bond Department; First National Bank of Chicago
IX-11
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Elementary Schools (Grades K-51
Guidelines:
Land Costs:
Construction Costs
90 square feet of space per student
$42 per square foot construction cost
10 acres of land plus 1 acre per
100 students in design capacity
Average of 190 students
12 acres of land at $1,500 per
acre: $18,000
90 square feet x 190 students =
17,100 square feet
17,100 square feet x $42 per
square foot = $718,200
Total land and building: $736,200
Financing:
Annual capital
expenditure:
Annual per student
capital expenditure:
Annual constant = .0955
$70,307
$370
Middle School (Grades 6-8)
Guidelines:
Land Costs:
Construction Costs
90 square feet of space per student
$42 per square foot construction cost
40 acres of land
Average of 700 students
40 acres at $1,500 per acre =
$60,000
90 square feet x 700 students =
63,000 square feet
63,000 square feet x $42 per
square foot = $2,646,000
Total land and building: $2,706,000
Financing:
Annual capital
expenditure:
Annual per student
capital expenditure
Annual constant = .0955
$258,423
$369
IX-12
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High School CGrades 9-12}
Guidelines:
Land Costs:
Construction costs:
Financing:
Annual capital
expenditure:
Annual per student
capital expenditure:
150 square feet of space per student
$45 per square foot
50 acres of land plus 1 acre per 100
students in design capacity-
Average of 1,250 students
62 acres at $1,500 per acre = $93,000
150 square feet x 1,250 students =
187,500 square feet
187,500 square feet x $45 per square
foot = $8,437,500
Total land and building: $8,530,500
Annual constant = .0955
$814,663
$652
Assuming the distribution of additional students by grade level
is proportionately similar to the current distribution,
Table IX-6 shows the annual capital expenditure by development
alternative for 1990.
IX-13
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TABLE IX-6
ANNUAL SCHOOL DISTRICT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
BY DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVE:
GERMANTOWN
Alternative
Number of Students
By Grade Level in 1990
Annual Capital
Expenditures in 1990
Action
Grades K-5
Grades 6-8
Grades 9-12
Total
No Action
Grades K-5
Grades 6-8
Grades 9-12
Total
SEWRPC Plan
Grades K-5
Grades 6-8
Grades 9-12
Total
1,332
606
1,090
3,028
122
55
99
276
2,776
$ 492,840
223,614
710,680
$1,427,134
$ 45,140
20,295
64,548
$ 129,983
$ 451,770
204,795
652,000
$1,308,565
Note: Calculations based on current distribution of students
by grade level; annual per student capital expenditures
of $370 for grades K-5, $369 for grades 6-8, $652 for
grades 9-12.
Source: RERC
IX-14
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Milwaukee; The Milwaukee School District would provide
public school education to students living in the Northwest
Side of the City. The 1978-1979 Average Daily Student
Membership (ADM) in the District was 92,396 students.
Interviews were held with school district staff to assess
the extent to which existing facilities could absorb additional
students. No independent count of students and classrooms
was conducted. The school district indicated that they
currently have excess capacity in schools on the Northwest
Side. This excess covers both facilities and personnel,
with classrooms operating below class size limits. Within
the range of students involved, the school district believes
there will be no additional cost required to service the
additional students.
In 1978, there were an estimated 238,600 households in the
City of Milwaukee. Using this estimate in conjunction with
the ADM, there are approximately 0.4 public school students
per household. Table IX-7 shows the number of students
generated by development alternative between 1979 and 1990.
TABLE IX-7
NUMBER OF STUDENTS BY DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVE:
NORTHWEST SIDE OF MILWAUKEE
Additional Additional
Number of Number of
Alternative Households in 1990 Students in 1990
Action 6,687 2,675
No Action 7,807 3,123
Note: Calculations based on 0.4 students per household.
Source: RERC
Interviews with the Facilities Planning Department of the
Milwaukee School District indicate that there is ample
existing space in current facilities in the neighborhood to
handle an increase in student enrollment from the Northwest
Side. The district currently loses approximately 4,000
students a year, in large part due to the increasing number
of households without children. This annual decline is
greater than the total number of additional students generated
between 1979 and 1990. Primarily based on these facts, the
school district operating and capital costs attributable to
new residential development on the Northwest Side of Milwaukee
could be insignificant. Therefore, no additional school
district costs for the development alternatives have been
assigned.
IX-15
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Summary; The excess capacity within existing schools on the
Northwest Side of the City of Milwaukee results in no addi-
accommodate additional students under any of
the alternatives. In Germantown, development under the
Action Alternative, is projected to produce an increase in
the number of students in the district; capital expenditures
based on standard design criteria were calculated and the
cost was considered attributable to the new residential
development. By 1990, this is estimated to be $1,427,134
annually for Action, and $129,983 for No Action.
Municipal Services and Costs
The additional costs of new residential development to the
municipal governments is a function of the projected population
increase and the capacity of the municipality to provide
service to these new residents. This section analyzes
municipal service levels of Germantown and Milwaukee and
calculates municipal operating and capital costs attributable
to the development alternatives. Each municipality is
discussed separately.
Germantown: The Village of Germantown would like its growth
to be slow and steady, but local officials believe this may
be difficult to enforce. The Village contracted with SEWRPC
to prepare a master plan for Germantown. A neighborhood
plan for the Jefferson Park neighborhood in the southern
part of the Village already has been prepared by SEWRPC.
These plans consider new zoning, land planning, and agricultural
land preservation programs to help shape Germantown's
development.
Germantown's subdivision regulations are less strict than
those of many other municipalities. Subdivisions are only
required to have sewer, water, street trees, and yard lights,
but not sidewalks and curbs. Developers pay the cost of
sewers up to a 10-inch pipe. An additional $450/lot fee is
also imposed.
Municipal service expenditures in Germantown are classified
into seven categories: general government, public safety,
inspection services, health and social services, transportation,
sanitation, and leisure. Based on the budget for the fiscal
year ended December 31, 1978, the per capita (estimated
total population of 10,257) cost of providing these services
is $150 on an annual basis. The annual average per capita
operating cost could be expected to increase under the
Action Alternative because of the projected 80% increase in
population Cand more expensive urban service levels). However,
this figure has been used as a measure of operating costs
attributable to new development. The additional annual
municipal operating costs are shown in Table IX-8.
IX-16
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TABLE IX-8
ANNUAL MUNICIPAL OPERATING COSTS
BY DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVE:
GERMANTOWN
Additional Municipal
Additional Annual Operating Costs
Alternative Population in 1990 in 1990
Action 8,319 $ 1,247,850
No Action 759 $ 113,850
Note: Calculations based on annual per capita cost of $150.
Source: RERC
According to the Germantown engineer, facilities within the
Village are operating close to, or at, capacity. Additional
personnel and facilities will be needed if population continues
to expand as it has in the past. Police protection is
provided by the Village and some consideration is being given
to expanding existing facilities. Fire protection is provided
by a volunteer fire department; analysis of the need to
expand staff and facilities would likely be based on a
variety of factors; including land use, frequency of calls,
availability of volunteer personnel, and community satisfaction
with response times and firefighting skills. The Duerwachter
Memorial Library may need more room, and recreational programs
will be more in demand as population increases. Finally,
general administrative services will be impacted by rapid
population growth.
The population increase between 1979 and 1990 under the No
Action Alternative (an increase of 759 persons) is not
expected to place a burden on municipal facilities, and
would likely not be the primary cause of additional capital
expenditures for new facilities. Therefore, annual capital
costs for this alternative have been calculated based on
current capital outlay.
The population increase between 1979 and 1990 under the
Action Alternative is projected at 8,319 persons. Capital
expenditures for new facilities will be required.
A literature review was undertaken to aid in determining the
best method of calculating capital expenditures related to
the Action Alternative projections. Approaches examined
included standard methodological formulas, as described in
the Fiscal Impact Handbook, and relationships between com-
munity size and expenditures as given in the Wisconsin State
Planning Office's report, Public Service Costs and Development.
IX-17
-------
These methodologies yielded cost factors that were one and one-
half to three times as much as current capital expenditures.
Within the Village, new or additional facilities and equipment
will not be required for every department, but the capital
expenditures that are required will be higher than those in
the past. Based on this, and in the absence of detailed
local information on specific standards, the EIS analysis has
applied a per capita annual capital expenditure figure that
is twice the current rate for the Action Alternative projections.
The Germantown budget for the year ending December 31, 1978,
indicates a capital outlay of $996,887, plus a debt service
of $545,864. Although debt service costs fluctuate, it is
included to provide a rough measure of capital expenditures.
Based on a population of 10,257, the annual average per
capita municipal capital cost is $150. This amount is
applied to development under the No Action Alternative; it
was doubled to $300 for the Action Alternative. Table IX-9
summarizes annual capital expenditures attributable to new
residential developments.
TABLE IX-9
1990 ANNUAL MUNICIPAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES
BY DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVE:
GERMANTOWN
Annual Municipal
Additional Capital Expenditures
Alternative Population in 1990 in 1990
Action 8,319 $ 2,495,700*
No Action 759 $ 113,850**
* Calculations based on per capita expenditure of $300.
* Calculations based on per capita expenditure of $150.
Source: RERC
Milwaukee: The decline in population in Milwaukee is con-
tinuing, but at a slower rate than in the past. The Northwest
Side of the City has the largest amount of vacant developable
land. This is the area that has experienced the greatest
amount of new development in the past five years and the
vast majority of the City's new, unsubsidized, single-family
housing starts.
The Citizens' Governmental Research Bureau (CGRB) provides
1979 budgeted municipal expenditures by function on a per
capita basis. Operating services total $385 per capita, and
debt service and capital outlays are $74 on a per capita
basis.
IX-18
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City staff indicates that the foundation from which to serve
additional households on the Northwest Side of the City is
in place. Existing facilities for municipal services like
police and fire protection are adequate, and present personnel
staff levels would not have to be expanded. They also
indicate that the additional population could be accommodated
at no additional capital or operating cost.
The EIS study team estimates that there will be some added
costs due to increased levels of residential development.
For instance, the library has a ten-year capital improvements
program plan that calls for the construction of a branch on
the Northwest side of the City. Due to the population
growth expected in this area, the library will request, in
the 1981 budget, funds for preliminary work in construction
of this facility. Another potential cost may be the result
of traffic congestion, which is becoming a problem particularly
along 76th Street, and which may be aggravated by additional
residential development. This is true of other roads in the
area which have not been improved to levels associated with
full residential development.
The EIS study team estimates the capital cost of accommodating
additional population will not exceed 50% of the per capita
costs of the existing population. Table IX-10 calculates
annual municipal costs for Milwaukee for the year 1990.
TABLE IX-10
ANNUAL ADDITIONAL MUNICIPAL OPERATING AND
CAPITAL COSTS BY DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVE:
NORTHWEST SIDE OF MILWAUKEE
Additional Additional Annual Additional Annual
Population Operating Costs Capital Costs
Alternative in 1990 in 1990 in 1990
Action 12,344 $ 2,382,392 $ 456,728
No Action 15,480 $ 2,987,640 $ 572,760
Note: Calculations based on a per capita operating cost of $193
and per capita capital cost of $37.
Source: RERC
IX-19
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Summary; Based on a review of municipal services, operating
and capital costs associated with new residential development
were calculated for Germantown and the Northwest Side of the
City of Milwaukee. Existing capacities were reviewed and
future capital expenditure estimates were made that reflect
current excess or deficient capacities to provide service to
new residents. In Milwaukee, many of the services needed to
accommodate additional residential development are available.
In Germantown, most municipal services are operating at
capacity, which increases the capital cost assigned to new
residential development.
Revenues
Municipal and school district revenues are derived from a
variety of sources at the federal, state, and local level.
Sources include state revenue sharing, school aids, licenses
and permits, user charges, and property taxes. The revenues
from state and federal sources are based on formulas, including
such factors as property wealth and tax effort. These
formulas are subject to legislative change. Given the
interrelationships between revenues and the prospect of
legislative change, the EIS calculated the property tax
revenue generated by new residential development and assumed
that per capita revenues from all other sources would remain
roughly constant. This assumes that the amount of residen-
tial development under any of the alternatives will not
affect threshold levels of change in the funding formulas or
the balance of funds from various sources.
Using the 1978 property tax rates for Germantown and Milwaukee
(Table IX-11), and the assumptions regarding the type and
market value of new housing that is projected to be constructed,
property tax revenues from new residential development were
calculated (Table IX-12).-* Revenues from sources other than
the property tax are shown in Table IX-13 (1978), and have
been allocated to the development alternatives in Table IX-14.
Summary: Property tax revenues that would be generated by
new residential development have been calculated. Per
student and per capita revenues from other sotirces have been
applied to population and student generation figures to
calculate other revenues. The alternative in each city that
generates greater total revenues is the one with the projected
larger population and dwelling unit increase.
360% of the new housing units in Germantown will
be single-family with an average unit market value of $95,000,
and 40% will be multi-family with an average unit market value
of $65,000. In Milwaukee, 25% of the units will be single-
family with an average unit market value of $65,000, and 75%
will be multi-family with an average unit market value of
$50,000.
IX-20
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TABLE IX-11
1978 PROPERTY TAX RATES
Germantown
Taxes per $1,000
Assessed Value
County Tax
Village Tax
School District
Vocational School
Total
Less: Real Estate Tax
Relief Credit
Net Tax Levy
3,5434
5.4550
17.4339
1.7524
28.1847
3.6068
24.5779
Milwaukee
County Tax
City Tax
School District
MATC
Sewerage Commission
Total
Less: Real Estate Tax
Relief Credit
Net Tax Levy
5.10
12.00
16.68
1.54
0.73
36.05
6.60
29.45
Assessed Value is 73% of Market Value.
Assessed Value is 98.4% of Market Value.
IX-21
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TABLE IX-12
PROPERTY TAX REVENUES
FROM NEW RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
Germantown
Action
No Action
Northwest Side of the
City of Milwaukee
Action
No Action
Number of Additional Housing
Units in 1990
2,773
253
Property Tax
Revenues in 1990
$ 4,128,550
$ 376,774
6,687
7,807
$10,410,096
$12,153,656
Note: Calculations based on 1978 property tax rates.
Source: RERC
IX-22
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TABLE IX-13
PER STUDENT AND PER CAPITA REVENUES
FROM SOURCES OTHER THAN THE PROPERTY TAX:
1978
Germantown School District
1978 Total Revenues $ 11,380,803
Less 1978 Local Tax Revenues 4,639,417
Other Revenue Sources ?6,741,386
Student Enrollment 3,465
Per Student Revenues, Other Sources $ 1,946
Village of Germantown
Total Revenues $ 3,218,879
Less Property Taxes 1,419,305
Other Revenue Sources 5? 1,799,574
Estimated 1979 Population 10,527
Per Capita Revenues, Other Sources $ 175
Milwaukee School District
Total Revenues $277,000,000
Less Local Tax Revenues 150,000,000
Other Revenue Sources $127,000,000
Student Enrollment 92,396
Per Student Revenues, Other Sources $ 2,998
City of Milwaukee
Total Revenues $284,800,000
Less Property Taxes 65,500,000
Other Revenue Sources $219,300,000
Estimated Population 620,160
Per Capita Revenues, Other Sources $ 354
Source: Village of Germantown Budget for Fiscal Year
Ended 12/31/78
Germantown School District Budget 1978-79
Citizens' Government Research Bureau
RERC
IX-2 3
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TABLE IX-14
REVENUES FROM SOURCES OTHER THAN THE
PROPERTY TAX BY DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVE
Alternative
Additional
Students
in 1990
1990 Annual
Revenues
Additional
Population
in 1990
1990 Annual
Revenues
Germantown
Action
No Action
3,028
276
$5,892,488
$ 537,096
8,319
759
$1,455,825
$ 132,825
Northwest Side
Of the City Of
Milwaukee
Action 2,675
No Action 3,123
$8,019,650
$9,362,754
12,344
15,480
$4,369,776
$5,479,920
•*• Calculations based on per student revenues of $1,946 and per
capita revenues of $175.
2 Calculations based on per student revenues of $2,998 and per
capita revenues of $354.
IX-24
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Menomonee Falls
Menomonee Falls has had a much lower level of development
throughout the decade than Germantown. This is due, in part,
to Menomonee Falls' policy on sewer extensions, which has
limited the number and location of collector sewers within
the Village.
The Village Engineer indicated that, even after the MMSD
connection, the interceptor tax will allow the addition of
only 140 new housing units/year and these must be adjacent
to already sewered areas. The Village will not pay to
extend sewers through agricultural or undeveloped land to
serve a new subdivision and will not assess property owners
for the cost of a sewer that crosses their land.
Under either the Action or No Action Alternative, the same
number of housing units (1,540) are projected to be constructed
between 1979 and 1990. Building permit information for
Menomonee Falls shows that between 1970 and 1978, 44% of the
permits were for single-family units and 56% for multi-
family units. Given that there may be some resistance in Menomonee
Falls to multi-family rental projects, future development is
estimated at 50% single-family and 50% multi-family. The
effect this new residential development will have on the
school district4 and municipal services is discussed below.
School District; The Menomonee Falls School District provides
public education to residents in the eastern half of the
Village. It has an enrollment of 5,178 students and an
average daily student membership of 5,085 students. There
are four elementary (grades K-5) schools, two middle (grades
6-8) schools, and two high (grades 9-12) schools within the
district. The district has been experiencing declining
enrollment, and each of the schools is operating at a level
below design capacity. However, the district has been
successful in efforts to keep facilities and personnel in
line with the downward trend in enrollment; for instance, the
Oakwood School was sold two years ago and the district has
leased part of a high school to a technical school.
4There are two school districts within Menomonee Falls.
Because the Hamilton school district is outside the area affected
by the Menomonee Falls-Germantown Interceptor, it is not included
in this analysis.
12-25
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The district conducts an annual census to calculate the
number of children per household. The 1978 school census
showed an average of 1.0 school-age child per household;
further, 19% of the school-age children attend private or
parochial schools. Using these figures, the approximate
number of children generated by new residential development
is shown in Table IX-15.
TABLE IX-15
STUDENTS GENERATED BY ALTERNATIVE
DEVELOPMENT PATTERN:
MENOMONEE FALLS
Number of
Number of Additional Number of
Additional School-Age Additional
Households Children School-Students
Alternative in 1990 in 1990 in 1990
Action 1,540 1,540 1,247
No Action 1,540 1,540 1,247
Note: Calculation based on 1.0 school-age child per household;
81% of total would attend public school.
Source: RERC
Given that the school district has excess capacity with
current facilities, capital expenditures for additional
facilities to service these new students will not be re-
quired.
Similarly, the district has excess capacity with regard to
operating services (e.g., personnel).
The school district appears to be in a position to handle
students generated by new residential development.
Municipal Services: The additional residential development
projected for Menomonee Falls between 1979 arid 1990 may
generate demand for additional municipal services. The
Village anticipates that, if new residential development
attracts households with children, then demand for additional
parks and recreation facilities could increase beyond the
current ability to handle this demand. If the number of
dwelling units per acre is high, police and fire protection
services will have to be examined to determine if they need
to be expanded. If new residential development in Menomonee
Falls attracts households with few children, the Village
believes demand for public transportation may increase.
Thus, the type of household moving into Menomonee Falls, as
well as the kind of development (e.g., concentrated versus
dispersed) will dictate the demands placed upon municipal
services.
IX-26
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Summary: Because identical levels of growth, are projected
for Menomonee Falls under both, alternatives, the net fiscal
impact on the Village and school district will be the same
under either alternative.
Fiscal Effects of Secondary Growth. Impacts
The fiscal effects of each development alternative are
summarized in this section. All costs and revenues are
based on the assumptions, information, and calculations
present in the preceding sections. Dollar amounts Gin 1979
dollars) are for the year 1990, and represent an addition
to the costs and revenues associated with existing residents
of the community. The net fiscal effect is total revenues
less total costs.
Action Alternative; Under the Action Alternative, it is
projected that there will be an additional 2,773 dwelling
units in the Village of Germantown by 1990. This represents
a population increase of 8,319 persons and an additional
3,028 students in the school district. On the Northwest
Side of the City of Milwaukee, the Action Alternative could
generate an additional 6,687 housing units by 1990. The
population of the area would increase by 12,344 persons and
there would be an additional 2,675 students.
The fiscal effect on the Village and School District of
Germantown are shown first, followed by those for the Northwest
Side of the City of Milwaukee.
Germantown (Action Alternative)
Municipal Operating Costs: $ 1,247,850
Municipal Capital Costs: 2 ,495,700
Total Municipal Costs: $ 3,743,550
School District Operating Costs: 6,249,792
School District Capital Costs: 1,427,134
Total School District Costs: $ 7,676,926
Total Municipal and School District Costs: $11,420,476
Property Tax Revenues: $ 4,128,550
Other Municipal and School District Revenues: 7,348,313
Total Revenues: $11,476,863
2 7
-------
Net Fiscal Effect, Action Alternative: Germantown
Total Revenues: $11,476,863
Less Total Costs: 11,420,476
Net Revenues (Co'sts) : $ 56,387
Northwest Side of the City of Milwaukee (Action Alternative)
Municipal Operating Costs: $ 2,382,392
Municipal Capital Costs: 456,728
Total Municipal Costs: $ 2,839,120
Total School District Costs:*
Total Municipal and School District Costs: $ 2,839,120
Property Tax Revenues: $10,410,096
Other Municipal and School District Revenues: 12,389,426
Total Revenues: $22,799,522
Net Fiscal Effect, Action Alternative: Northwest Side of
the City of Milwaukee
Total Revenues: $22,799,522
Less Total Costs: 2,839,120
Net Revenues (Costs): $19,960,402
* School district operating and capital costs attributable
to new residential development are expected to be in-
significant.
No Action Alternative: Under the No Action Alternative, it
is projected that there will be an additional 253 dwelling
units in the Village of Germantown by 1990. This represents
a population increase of 759 persons and an additional 276
students in the school district. On the Northwest Side of
the City of Milwaukee, the No Action Alternative could
generate an additional 7,807 housing units by 1990. The
population of the area would increase by 15,480 persons and
there would be an additional 3,123 students.
IX-2 8
-------
The fiscal effect on the Village and School District of
Germantown are shown first, followed by those for the
Northwest Side of the City of Milwaukee.
Germantown CNo Action!
Municipal Operating Costs: $ 113,850
Municipal Capital Costs: 113,850
Total Municipal Costs: $ 227,700
School District Operating Costs: $ 569,664
School District Capital Costs: 129,983
Total School District Costs: $ 699,647
Total Municipal and School District Costs: $ 927,347
Property Tax Revenues: $ 376,744
Other Municipal and School District Revenues: 869,921
Total Revenues: $1,246,665
Net Fiscal Effect, No Action Alternative: Germantown
Total Revenues: $1,246,665
Less Total Costs: 927,347
Net Revenues (Costs): $ 319,318
Northwest Side of the City of Milwaukee (No Action)
Municipal Operating Costs: $ 2,987,640
Municipal Capital Costs: 572,760
Total Municipal Costs: $ 3,560,400
Total School District Costs:*
Total Municipal and School District Costs: $ 3,560,400
Property Tax Revenues: $ 12,153,656
Other Municipal and School District Revenues: 14,842,674
Total Revenues: $ 26,996,330
IX-29
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Net Fiscal Effect, No Action Alternative:
of the City of Milwaukee
Total Revenues:
Less Total Costs:
Net Revenues (Costs]:
Northwest Side
$ 26,996,330
3,560,400
$ 23,435,930
* School district operating and capital costs attributable
to new residential development are expected to be
insignificant.
Summary
Based on the assumptions used in this fiscal effect analysis,
residential development under the Action and No Action
Alternatives in the Village of Germantown and the Northwest
Side of the City of Milwaukee does not create a fiscal
burden (where costs would exceed revenues) on the municipalities
and school districts.
TABLE IX-16
NET FISCAL EFFECTS BY
DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVE
Alternative
Action
Germantown
NW Side of Milwaukee
No Action
Germantown
NW Side of Milwaukee
Source: RERC
Net Revenues
(Costs)
$ 56,387
$19,960,402
$ 319,318
$23,435,930
Per Added
Household
$ 20
$2,985
$1,262
$3,002
The excess of revenues over costs is small for Germantown
under the Action Alternative. Conversely, net revenues in
Germantown increase substantially under the No Action
Alternative. These results indicate the significant costs
associated with high levels of residential development in
Germantown, yielding No Action as the most fiscally ad-
vantageous .
IX-30
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High levels of residential development are also projected
for the Northwest Side of the City of Milwaukee with either
alternative. The fact that revenues exceed costs by such a
substantial margin is the result of the present excess
capacity within the City and school district.
In conclusion, it is apparent that the fiscal effect of new
residential development is directly related to present
service capacity (the ability of a municipality or school
district to handle additional population).
NEW BERLIN
Introduction
This section examines the public service costs and revenues
associated with the projected residential development occurring
under the Action and No Action Alternatives within the City
of New Berlin.
Within the City of New Berlin, the projected amount of
additional residential development varies by alternative.
An Action Alternative is projected to produce an additional
3,974 to 5,216 households between 1979 and 1990.
These various residential development levels will have
different impacts on the provision of city and public school
services. This analysis examines the impacts, in light of
existing facility and service capacities in New Berlin,
to estimate both costs and revenues of each alternative.
Specific information regarding public service costs and
revenues attributable to new residential development is
presented in the next five sections. A summary of the
residential growth projected for New Berlin under the three
alternatives and as forecast by SEWRPC is presented first.
The second section examines school district services and
associated costs related to new residential development.
Municipal services and costs are discussed in the third section
followed by information regarding municipal and school
district revenues. The final section quantitatively measures
the fiscal impact of the residential development alternatives.
Summary of Growth Development Patterns
The City of New Berlin is very attractive for residential
development. It is accessible by major highways, has local
employment opportunities, and has a great deal of vacant,
developable land. If additional sewer capacity is provided,
the City will attract a larger share of the suburban MMSD
planning area housing market than it has in the past.
IX-31
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The Local Alternative would be construction of a new treat-
ment facility referred to as the New Berlin Southeast plant.
The Regional Alternative would be construction of the Hales
Corners and Root River Interceptors. Both of these Action
Alternatives would serve all of New Berlin that lies within
the Lake Michigan drainage basin.
The EIS study team has estimated a range of development likely
to occur in New Berlin under an Action Alternative (.Local or
Regional). The lower end of the range represents the share of
the regional development New Berlin would attract based on
the filling in of developable land in Greenfield, West Allis
and Hales Corners. The higher level is the amount of growth
New Berlin would attract if it pulls development from the
suburbs mentioned above as well as from other areas.
Under an Action Alternative, between 3,974 and 5,216 residential
units are likely to be built between 1979 and. 1990, increasing
the population by a range of 13,962 to 18,470.
Under the No Action Alternative, 612 more units can be ac-
commodated by the Regal Manors Plant. In addition, the
Popular Creek service area in western New Berlin and Wildcat
Creek in the eastern portion together have capacity for about
1,400 more units. Therefore, No Action could allow for the
construction of 2,024 housing units in New Berlin between
1979 and 1990, increasing the population by 6,883.
The SEWRPC Plan provides forecasts for population and households
for 1985 and 2000. Using the same 1979 base estimates of
population and housing, and interpolating the 1985 to 2000
forecasts, SEWRPC Plan forecasts are shown for the 1979-1990
planning period. Table IX-17 on the following page summarizes
the development projections and SEWRPC forecaists.
The development that would occur under any of these alternatives
would be primarily single-family detached houses, with a
limited amount of multi-family construction. Building
permit data for the years 1970 through 1978 show that 77% of
all permits were for single-family units and 23% for multi-
family units. This distribution is not expected to change
significantly during the 1979 to 1990 planning period.
For the purposes of this analysis it has been assumed that
75% of all new dwelling units built under any alternative
will be single-family, detached houses. Based on current
prices, the average market value is assumed as $85,000.
One-half of the remaining dwelling units are assumed to be
multi-family condominiums; the average market price of
these units is $55,000. The remaining units (12.5% of total
units) are assumed to be multi-family rental,. For this
analysis, the New Berlin assessor has stated that an average
market value of $20,000 per unit would be a reasonable
estimate.
IX-32
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TABLE IX-17
INDUCED GROWTH, NEW BERLIN
Base 1979
Households
Population
Action
(Local or Regional)
9,286
34,172
No Action
9,286
34,172
SEWRPC
Plan
9,286**
34,172**
Increment
1979-1985
Households
Population
1,649-2,136
5,522-7,290
1,224
3,979
1,519**
6,728**
1985
Households
Population
10,935-11,422
39,694-41,462
10,510
38,151
10,805
40,900
Increment
1985-1990
Households
Population
2,325-3,080
8,440-11,180
800
2,904
1,487
5,167
1990
Households
Population
13,260-14,502
48,134-52,642
11,310
41,055
12,292*
46,067*
2000
Households
Population
15,265
56,400
* Interpolation from 1985 to 2000.
** 1979 estimates are not available from SEWRPC; 1979
estimates used to determine increments, 1979-1985 and
1985-1990.
Note: Yearly figures are as of January 1.
Source: RERC projections; SEWRPC Plan.
IX-3 T
-------
School District Services and Costs
The New Berlin School District provides public education for
students in all but three small sections of the City. The
northeast corner of the City is serviced by the Elmbrook
schools; a small section of the east central area attends
West Allis schools; and a small undeveloped section of the
City's southwest corner is within the Muskego School District.
There are six elementary (grades K-6} schools, two middle
schools (grades 7 and 8), and two high schools (grades 9
-12). Total enrollment in the district is almost 6,000
students; the average daily student membership (ADM) for the
1978-79 school year was 5,934 students.
The district has been experiencing declining enrollment over
the past few years. Because of this, one elementary school
was closed in 1979. School boundary lines have since been
redrawn so that most of the schools are operating at their
design capacity. The school district believes current
facilities are adequate for all levels of projected residential
development. This belief is based primarily on the fact
that virtually 100% of the students within the district ride
the bus to school, allowing the district to redraw school
service area boundaries as necessary. For purposes of this
analysis, it was assumed that current enrollment figures
will stabilize due to changing demographic characteristics,
and the additional students generated by new development
will represent a net increase in enrollment.
The school district does not have specific estimates on the
number of students generated by housing type. Based on a
current enrollment of 6,000 students and the 1979 estimate
of 9,286 households in the City, there is an average of .646
students per household (this average is exclusive of students
attending private and parochial schools). Using this average
figure, Table IX-18 shows the number of students that will be
generated by the development alternatives. Table IX-19 shows
the distribution of these additional students by elementary,
middle, and high schools in the New Berlin School District.
average of .646 students per household is a
conservative estimate. The City's developer requirements
contain an estimate of two students per single-family unit
constructed, two students per each 3-bedroom multi-family
unit, and one student per each 2-bedroom multi-family unit,
IX-34
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TABLE IX-18
NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL PUBLIC SCHOOL STUDENTS
BY DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVE: NEW BERLIN
Action
Alternative
No
Action
Base 1979
Number of Households
Nuber of Students
9,286
6,000
9,286
6,000
Increment 1979-1985
Number of Households
Number of Students
1,649-2,136
1,065-1,380
1,224
791
Increment 1985-1990
Number of Households
Number of Students
2,325-3,080
1,502-1,990
800
517
Note: Number of students is based on current average of .646 students
per household.
Source: RERC projections
IX-35
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TABLE IX-19
DISTRIBUTION OF ADDITIONAL STUDENTS BY GRADE LEVEL: NEW BERLIN
Current Distribution
Number of Pupils
Percent
Grades Grades Grades
K-6 7-8 9-12 Total
2,657 925 2,296 5,878
45% 16% 39% 100%
Action Alternative
Increment 1979-1985
Increment 1985-1990
Total
No Action Alternative
Increment 1979-1985
Increment 1985-1990
Total
479-621
676-895
1,155-1,516
356
233
589
170-221
240-318
410-539
127
83
210
416-538
586-777
1,002-1,315
308
1,065-1,380
1,502-1,990
2,567-3,370
791
517
509
1,308
Note: Distribution of students by grades based on September 28, 1979
figures from the New Berlin School District.
Source: New Berlin School District; RERC.
IX-36
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Despite the bulge of households with, young children expected
in the 1980s, continuation of the current age distribution
is considered reasonable due to the cost of housing in New
Berlin. Future residents are likely to be older and purchasing
their second house rather than first. Their children are
likely to be older, on the average, than those in the rest
of New Berlin.
Operating Costs: According to the Citizens' Governmental
Research Bureau (CGRB), the 1978-1979 annual per student
operating cost in the New Berlin School District was $2,015.
This figure is exclusive of transportation costs, which the
school district estimates at $77 per student annually.
Total annual operating costs per student are, therefore,
$2,092. In calculating the fiscal effect of new residential
development on the school district, these annual operating
costs have been employed in conjunction with the student
generation figures in Table IX-18. Table IX-20 shows the
1990 annual school operating costs by development alternative.
TABLE IX-20
ANNUAL SCHOOL DISTRICT OPERATING COSTS
BY DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVE: NEW BERLIN
Number of Students 1990 Annual
Alternative Generated in 1990 Operating Costs
Action Alternative 2,567-3,370 $7,050,040
No Action Alternative 1,308 $2,736,336
Note: Calculation based on an annual per student operating
cost of $2,092.
Source: RERC
Capital Costs: In calculating school district capital
expenditures related to the development alternatives, it was
assumed that the level of student enrollment from existing
housing will remain constant due to changing demographic
conditions. Therefore, the number of students generated by
the alternative development patterns represents a net increase
in the number of students in the district. Since the ten
schools in the district are operating at their design capacity,
according to district officials, the additional students
would create a demand for additional facilities. The annual
per student cost of these additional facilities represents
the capital costs attributable to new residential development.
The type and number of additional schools that would be
required, as well as associated costs, is discussed here.
IX-37
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There is currently an average of 425 students in each, of the
K-6 schools, an average of 450 students in each of the two
middle schools, and an average of 1,150 students in each of
the two high schools. An Action Alternative will generate
an additional 2,562 - 3,370 students by 1990; the No Action
Alternative, 1,308 students.
In estimating the additional facilities required, it is
assumed that the school district could re-open an elementary
school that was closed this past year, accommodating approxi-
mately 400-500 of the additional K-6 school students generated
by new development. Using this and the enrollment assumptions,
the average number of students per school cited above, and
allowing for some excess capacity within existing schools,
the following facilities would be required for new students,
given the distribution in Table IX-19.
Action Alternative: By 1990, there will be 1,155-1,516 additional
K-6 students — two additional K-6 schools needed; 410-539
additional 7-8 grade students — one middle school needed;
1,002-1,315 additional 9-12 grade students — one high
school needed.
No Action Alternative: By 1990, there will be 589 additional
K-6 students — no new school needed (but an existing closed
school could be re-opened); 210 additional 7-8 grade students —
additions to a middle school needed; 509 additional 9-12 grade
students — an addition to a high school needed.
The cost of these new facilities can be calculated based on
accepted standards and guidelines. According to the Wisconsin
Department of Public Instruction, the average construction
cost for new schools in the Milwaukee metropolitan area is
$42-$45 per square foot. Additions to existing schools
would generally cost less. The Department follows site size
guidelines established by the Council of Educational Facility
Planners International (CEFPI). For a high school, the
guidelines suggest 30 acres of land plus one acre per 100
students in design capacity; for grades K-8, the guidelines
suggest 10 acres of land plus one acre per 100 students in
design capacity.
Developer requirements within the City of New Berlin contain
a formula stipulating land dedication Cor fees in lieu of
land) for the school district. The requirements state that,
for every 50 students generated by a new subdivision, one
acre of land or its monetary equivalent are to be dedicated
to the school district. Because of this, it is assumed that
the capital expenditures attributable to new development
will be solely construction costs.
IX-38
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Public Service Costs and Development CWisconsin State
Planning Office, 19751 uses a standard of 90 square feet of
space per student for K-8 schools and 150 square feet of
space per student for high schools. These figures include
classrooms and ancillary space, such as hallways, administrative
offices and the like.
Converting the construction costs to an annual per student
capital expenditure required further assumptions regarding
the financing of the facilities. Additional facilities would
be financed through a bond issue. Current market rates for
a Wisconsin school district with an A credit rating would be
about 7 1/4% for a 20-year term. Compounded semi-annually,
the annual constant would be .0955.
Elementary and Middle Schools
Guidelines: 90 square feet of space per student
$42 per square foot, construction cost
$38 per square foot, addition cost
Average of 425 students per K-6 school
Average of 450 students per 7-8 school
Average of 225 students per addition to middle
school
High School
Guidelines: 150 square feet of space per student
$45 per square foot, construction cost
$40 per square foot, addition cost
Average of 1,150 students per high school
Average of 575 students per addition to high
school
Construction of an Elementary (grades K-6) School
Building costs: 90 square feet x 425 students = 38,250 square feet
38,250 square feet x $42 per square foot =
$1,606,500
Financing: Annual constant = .0955
Annual capital expenditure = $153,421
^Source: Bond Department; The First National Bank of Chicago
IX-3 9
-------
Construction of a Middle Cgrades 7-81 School
Building costs: 90 square feet x 450 pupils = 40,500 square feet
40,500 square feet x $42 per square foot =
$1,701,000
Financing: Annual constant = .0955
Annual capital expenditure = $162,445
Addition to a Middle School
Building costs: 90 square feet x 225 pupils = 20,250 square feet
20,250 square feet x $38 per square foot =
$769,500
Financing: Annual constant = .0955
Annual capital expenditure = $73,487
Construction of a High School
Building costs: 150 square feet x 1,150 pupils =
172,500 square feet
172,500 square feet x $45 per square foot =
$7,762,500
Financing: Annual constant = .0955
Annual capital expenditure = $741,319
Addition to a High School
Building Costs: 150 square feet x 575 pupils = 86,250 square feet
86,250 square feet x $40 per square foot =
$3,450,000
Financing: Annual constant = .0955
Annual capital expenditure = $329,475
Summary; Using the information presented in this section,
annual school operating and capital expenditures attributable
to new development can be calculated. Operating costs are
figured using the current annual per pupil operating cost
C$2,092) and the pupil generation figures by development
alternative. Annual capital expenditures are: the annual
costs related to the construction and addition to facilities
that would be required.
IX-4Q
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Municipal Services and Costs
Municipal services in New Berlin are classified into six
categories: general government; public safety; health, and
sanitation; public works; education Clibraryl; and parks and
recreational.7 Municipal operating costs for new residential
development are based on expenditures given in the 1979
Proposed Budget for the City of New Berlin and an estimated
1979 population of 34,172 persons. The City's developer
requirements are discussed prior to presenting cost information,
Development Requirements; While New Berlin prefers new
development to be compact and contiguous, it has not placed
numerical limits on development. The developer pays most of
the costs of new sewers. Subdivision development standards
vary Cdepending on the type of development) from rural with
open ditches to urban with curb, gutter, storm and sanitary
sewers required.
Developer requirements include a provision for land dedication
or fees-in-lieu-of-land to the school district and the
parks department. The formula is based on the assessed
value of an acre of land in the area being developed and
on estimates of the number of people generated by housing
types. Generally, for every 100 people in a new development,
one acre of land or its monetary equivalent must be dedicated
to the parks department. For every 50 school-age children
generated by new development, one acre of land or its monetary
equivalent must be dedicated to the school district.
Municipal Facilities; According to the New Berlin City
Planner, service areas for all municipal services have been
established and, with the exception of city hall, existing
facilities are said to be adequate to handle residential
growth.
The municipal office building is considered inadequate at
the present time, and a new building may be needed. The
decision to construct another office will not be based on
population increase alone, although the level of population
increases will be a factor.
'A seventh category, unclassified, is not a
but is included in cost calculations because it represents
a significant city budget expenditure. Unclassified includes
tax refunds, employees' welfare, general liabilities, contin-
gency fund, judgments and damages, and land purchases.
IX-41
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Municipal Operating and Capital Costs; New residential
development under any of the alternatives is not expected to
alter the current distribution of operating expenditures,
nor is it expected to create a demand for major capital
expenditures. It is, therefore, assumed that per capita
costs will be similar in the future.
Based on current annual per capita operating expenditures,
municipal operating costs related to new residential develop-
ment have been calculated Csee Table IX-211. These costs,
for the year 1990, represent the additional annual cost
generated by the development alternatives.
TABLE IX-21
OPERATING COSTS ATTRIBUTABLE TO NEW RESIDENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT: NEW BERLIN
Projected 1990 Annual Operating
Development Alternative Population Costs in 1990
Action Alternative 13,962-18,470 $1,960,272-2,604,735
No action Alternative 6,883 $ 966,514
Source: RERC
The 1979 proposed budget for New Berlin itemizes an expenditure
of $678,165 for payments on indebtedness, or an annual per
capita amount of $19.85. This current per capita cost has
been used in this analysis as a measure of capital costs
attributable to new residential development. Based on this,
Table IX-22 gives capital expenditures for the year 1990 by
development alternative.
TABLE IX-22
CAPITAL COSTS ATTRIBUTABLE TO NEW RESIDENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT: NEW BERLIN
Projected 1990 Annual Operating
Development Alternative Population Costs in 1990
Action Alternative 13,962-18,470 $277,146-366,630
No Action Alternative 6,883 $136,628
Note: Based on continued 1979 per capital expenditures of
$19.85.
Source: RERC
LX-42
-------
Summary; According to the New Berlin City Planner, the City
is equipped to handle additional residential development.
With the exception of a municipal office building, no major
capital expenditures are anticipated. Current per capita
municipal operating and capital costs appear likely to
continue in the future, with the expected development re-
sulting in neither significant economies of scale nor major
increased costs. Municipal operating and capital costs
related to new residential development were calculated
based on current annual per capita expenditures by the City.
Revenues
Municipal and school district revenues are derived from a
variety of sources. Property taxes account for 75% of the
school district's total revenue, with Wisconsin state school
aid funds covering most of the remaining 25%. For the City
of New Berlin, general property and state-shared taxes
account for the majority of all revenues. As shown in
Table IX-23, the proportion of municipal revenues generated
from the various sources has remained fairly constant over
the past few years.
The revenues from state and federal sources are based on
formulas including such factors as property wealth and tax
effort. Since the type of development forecast is similar
to the past development in New Berlin, and because its indus-
trial park is well-established, it does not appear likely
that such factors as the relative tax base per capita or
students per dollars of valuation will change significantly.
Using the New Berlin 1978 property tax rates (see Table
IX-24) and the assumptions regarding the type and market
value of new housing" that is projected to be constructed,
property tax revenues from new residential development were
calculated. The results are shown in Table IX-25. Property
tax revenues for the school district are included in these
calculations.
SAS discussed in Section II, 75% of the new units
are expected to be single-family detached houses with an
estimated market value of $85,000; 12.5% of the units will
be multi-family condominium, with an estimated average unit
value of $55,000; and 12.5% of the units will be multi-family
rental, with an estimated average unit value of $20,000.
IX-43
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TABLE IX-23
REVENUES: CITY OF NEW BERLIN
Actual 1977
Revenue Source Amount Percent
General Property
Taxes $1,869,072 34.6?
State-Shared
Taxes
Licenses &
Permits
Departmental
Earnings 1
All Other
Revenue
Industrial Park
Revenue
Appropriated from
Surplus
Transfers and
Trust Fund 2
Proceeds from
Premissary
Notes
TOTAL
2,060,596 38.1
116,286 2.2
228,919 4.2
152,410 2.8
33,197 0.6
275,000 5.1
673,827 12.4
$5,409,307 100.
Estimated Total
1978
Amount
Proposed Budget
1979
Percent Amount
Percen-
$2,005,006 34.8%
2,069,784 35.0
108,749 1,
273,379 4.6
156,508 2.7
47,572 0.8
325,000 5.5
523,722 8.9
350,000 5.9
$5,909,720 100.0%
$2,109,494 38.5%
2,192,941 40.1
100,000 1.8
243,500 4.5
150,000 2.7
200,000 3.6
480,606 8.8
$5,476,541 100.0%
Sale of Materials and Interest on Investments.
Includes: Transfer from Water Utility (payments on Water
Utility Indebtedness); Transfer from sinking funds; Transfer
from Revenue Sharing and Trust Fund.
Source: New Berlin Municipal Budget, 1978.
IX-44
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TABLE IX-24
1978 PROPERTY TAX RATES: NEW BERLIN
County Tax
City Tax
School District
Vocational School
TOTAL
Less: Real Estate Tax
Relief Credit
Net Tax Levy
Taxes Per $1,000 In
Assessed Value*
$6.86
9.07
45.19
3.97
$65.09
9.41
$55.68
* The assessed value equals 32% of full market value.
TABLE IX-25
PROPERTY TAX REVENUES FROM NEW RESIDENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT: NEW BERLIN
Alternative
Action Alternative
No Action Alternative
Number of Housing
Units in 1990
3,974-5,216
2,024
Property Tax
Revenues in 1990
$5,179,019-$6,795,959
$2,637,083
Note: Calculations based on New Berlin 1978 tax rate per $1,000
in assessed value; assumes 75% of the units are single-
family with an average unit market value of $85,000;
12.5% are multi-family condominium with an average
unit market value of $55,000; 12.5% are multi-family
rental with an average unit market value of $20,000.
Assessed value eauals 32% of market value.
IX-45
-------
Other revenues from new residential development are based
solely on current per student or per capita revenues. These
are shown in Table IX-26.
Revenues from sources other than the property tax for each
alternatives are shown in Table IX-27.
Summary: Property tax revenues that would be generated by
new residential development have been calculated, and per
student and per capita revenues from other sources have been
applied to population and student generation figures to
calculate other revenues. The Action Alternatives generate
greater total revenues due to the larger population and
dwelling unit increases projected under these alternatives.
Fiscal Effects of Secondary Growth Impacts
The fiscal effects of the development alternatives are
summarized in this section. All costs and revenues are
based on the assumptions, information, and calculations
presented in the preceding sections. Dollar amounts Gin
1979 dollars) are for the year 1990, and represent an addition
to the costs and revenues associated with current residents
of New Berlin. The net fiscal effect is total revenues less
total costs.
Action Alternative: Under an Action Alternative, it is
projected that 3,974-5,219 dwelling units will be constructed
by 1990. This represents a population increase of 13,962-
18,470 persons and an additional 2,567-3,370 students in the
school district. It was estimated that the development
occurring under an Action Alternative could generate the
need for two additional K-6 schools, one middle school, and
one high school. Residential development under this alternative
could create a more immediate need for a new municipal
office building.
Municipal Operating Costs $1,960,272 - $2,604,735
Municipal Capital Costs 277,146 - 366,630
Total Municipal Costs $2,237,418 - $2,971,365
School District Operating Costs $5,370,164 - $7,050,040
School District Capital Costs 1,210,606 - 1,210,606
Total School District Costs $6,580,770 - $8,260,646
Total Municipal and School
District Costs $8,818,188 -$11,232,011
Property Tax Revenues Generated $5,179,019 - $6,795,959
Other School District and
Municipal Revenues $2,645,202 - $3,486,570
Total Revenues $7,824,221 -$10,282,529
IX-4 6
-------
TABLE IX-26
PER STUDENT AND PER CAPITA REVENUES FROM
SOURCES OTHER THAN THE PROPERTY TAX:
NEW BERLIN
New Berlin School District
1978 Total Revenues $12,492,000
Less 1978 Local Tax Revenues 9,538,000
Other Revenue Sources $ 2,954,000
Student Enrollment 6,000
Per Student Revenues:
Other Sources $ 492
City of New Berlin
1978 Total Revenues $ 5,476,541
Less Property Taxes 2 ,109,454
Other Revenue Sources 3,367,087
Estimated 1979 Population 34,172
Per Capita Revenues:
Other Sources $ 99
Source: New Berlin School District; City of New Berlin; RERC.
Revenues from sources other than property tax for
each alternative are shown in Table IX-27
IX-47
-------
TABLE IX-27
REVENUES FROM SOURCES OTHER THAN THE PROPERTY TAX,
BY DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVE:
NEW BERLIN
Alternative
Action
Alternative
No Action
Alternative
Additional
Students in 1990
2,567-3,370
1,308
1990 Total
Annual
Re venue s-^
$1,262,964
1,658,040
$ 643,536
Additional
Population in 1990
13,962
18,470
6,883
1990 Total
Annual
Revenues
$1,382,238
1,828,530
$ 681,417
Based on per student revenues of $492
Based on per capita revenues of $99
Source: RERC.
IX-48
-------
Net Fiscal Effect: Action Alternative
Total Revenues $7,824,221 - $ 10,282,529
Less Total Costs 8,818,188 - 11,232,011
Net Revenue (.costs! C$993,6671- C $949,482)
No Action Alternative; Under the No Action Alternative,
it is projected that 2,024 dwelling units will be constructed
by 1990. This represents a population increase of 6,883
persons and an additional 1,308 students in the school
district. It was estimated that the development occurring
under the No Action Alternative would generate the need for
an addition to a middle school and an addition to a high
school.
Municipal Operating Costs $ 966,514
Municipal Capital Costs 136 ,628
Total Municipal Costs $1,103,142
School District Operating Costs $2,736,336
School District Capital Costs 402,962
Total School District Costs $3,139,298
Total Municipal and School
District Costs $4,242,440
Property Tax Revenues Generated $2,637,083
Other School District and Municipal
Revenues 1,324,953
Total Revenues $3,962,036
Net Fiscal Effect: No Action Alternative
Total Revenues $3,962,036
Less Total Costs 4,242,440
Net Revenue Costs C$ 280,404)
Summary
Based on the assumptions used in this fiscal impact analysis,
the residential development alternatives create a net fiscal
burden (costs exceed revenues! on the City and School District.
Table IX-28 presents a summary of the impacts.
IX-49
-------
TABLE IX-28
NET FISCAL EFFECT
BY DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVE:
NEW BERLIN
Alternative Net Revenues CCostsj Per Added Household
Action Alternative C$949,482) - C$993,967] C$243) - C$197)
No Action
Alternative C$280,404)
Source: RERC
The No Action Alternative creates the smallest annual fiscal
burden in terms of total dollars and per household costs.
The Action Alternative has a burden two to three times as
much as the No Action Alternative. This reflects the need
to add school facilities to accommodate growth, while under
No Action school capacity can be met by putting a recently
closed school back in service.
OAK CREEK
Introduction
This section examines the public service costs and revenues
associated with the residential development patterns occurring
under the No Action and two Action Alternatives within the
City of Oak Creek.
The methodology used to determine the fiscal impacts of the
three alternatives in Oak Creek is different from the others.
It is a qualitative assessment of the City's and school
district's relative ability to handle residential growth in
different areas, since the total level of development does
not change.
Summary of Growth Development Patterns
The Action and No Action Alternatives are projected to
produce the same total number of additional households
(approximately 2,500) in Oak Creek. The major difference is
where these additional dwelling units could be located.
IX-50
-------
The Oak Creek, interceptor area cannot develop further without
an interceptor because the existing lift station is almost
at capacity and cannot accept additional flows. Without
this interceptor (No Action!/ new residential development in
Oak Creek is expected to concentrate in the more developed
areas of the City. If the interceptor is built, however, a
more scattered development pattern throughout the entire
City could result (Action Alternative!. A third alternative
is to upgrade the existing lift station. This would allow a
limited amount of continued development in the interceptor
area and could limit, to a certain extent, the scattering of
development throughout the City. Table IX-29 shows population
and housing unit projections and forecasts for the City and
the interceptor area with each alternative.
Under any of the three alternatives, a total of approximately
2,500 dwelling units are projected to be constructed in Oak
Creek between 1979 and 1990. Within the interceptor area,
90 dwelling units could be constructed between now and 1985
under the No Action Alternative; and 1,260 units could be
constructed elsewhere in the City. After 1985, the 1,125
additional units could be constructed outside the interceptor
area. If the interceptor is not built, it is expected that
future development will follow the trends of past development;
it will move from the north to the south and will be concentrated
in established areas of the City, particularly the central
and eastern portions outside the interceptor area.
The Action Alternative (construction of the interceptor)
could produce the same total number of dwelling units in the
City. However, under this alternative, development may be
scattered throughout the City. Between 1979 and 1985, 140
units could be constructed in the interceptor area; between
1985 and 1990, an additional 250 units could be built there.
The remaining 2,085 units could be scattered throughout the
City.
The Action Alternative (Upgrade Existing Lift Station)
would allow a small amount of continued development in the
interceptor area after 1985 (90 units). This development is
expected to occur adjacent to the urbanized part of the
interceptor area.
-------
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The development under each, of the three alternatives for
both the City and the interceptor area is likely to be
medium-density residential. Residential development within
Oak Creek is predominantly single-family housing. Building
permit information for the years 197Q through. 1978 indicates
that 56% of the permits were for single-family units and 44%
were for multi-family units. The interceptor area attracted
most of the multi-family development. It is assumed that
these trends will continue to hold true for additional
development in Oak Creek. That is, of the 2,475 housing
units projected, 55% to 60% (1,361 to 1,485 units) would be
single-family and the remaining 990 to 1,114 units would be
multi-family developments.
The effect these different development patterns could have
on the school district is presented in the next section.
Following that is an assessment of their impact on City
services.
Impact of Residential Development on the School District
The Oak Creek-Franklin Joint City School District #1 provides
public education to school-age children living within the
City of Oak Creek and parts of Franklin. Eighty-five percent
of the school district's total enrollment is from Oak Creek.
The school district does not develop estimates on the number
of students generated by housing type. Due to changing
socioeconomic conditions, the district has concluded that
past trends do not provide reasonable estimates for enrollment
projections and facilities planning. In the absence of such
information, it is not possible to develop reasonable estimates
of the number of pupils that could be generated by new
development within Oak Creek.
The junior and senior high schools provide education for all
students from Oak Creek. Both schools are operating below
capacity. The school district foresees no problem in handling
junior and senior high school students resulting from new
development anywhere within the City over the next 10 years.
Elementary schools (grades K-6) serve specific districts
within the City of Oak Creek. Each of the six schools is
operating below capacity. The school district has closed
one school in an attempt to better utilize resources in the
face of declining enrollments.
IX-53
-------
Based on total enrollment figures, approximately 85% of all
students in the district ride the bus to school. Because
transportation is provided for such a large proportion of
students, elementary school district Boundaries will be
redrawn, if necessary, to accommodate additional students
from new residential development anywhere in the City. The
district does not calculate transportation expenditures on
a per student basis; thus, it is not possible to calculate
the additional cost of transporting the students. The
fact that the schools are operating below capacity is a
strong indication that no new schools would need to be
constructed to serve additional students, (whether the new
students were concentrated in one section of the community
or scattered throughout). At this time the school district
does not have plans to construct any additional schools.
Of the school district's total revenues, slightly more than
one-third (37%) are from state aid. Almost all of the
remainder (63%) is derived from local sources, such as the
property tax. Historically, this proportional distribution
of revenues generated locally and from the state has remained
fairly constant. Assuming the state aid formula is not
changed, the district anticipates that the 1/3 state, 2/3
local distribution will continue.
The district does not calculate transportation expenditures
on a per pupil basis; thus, it is not possible to calculate
the additional cost of transporting the students. Transpor-
tation is less costly when passengers are concentrated in a
specific area, and more costly when passengers are scattered.
The No Action alternative will result in new students being
concentrated in existing developed areas, possibly making it
easier and less expensive to transport these students than under
either of the two Action alternatives. The Action alternative
of building the interceptor is likely to produce scattered
residential development. It is possible that this could place
a slightly greater cost burden on transportation expenses.
Impacts of New Residential Development on City Services
City services are broadly classified into five categories:
general government; public safety; health and sanitation;
public works and education (library); and recreation. The
results of a citizens survey conducted in 1978 indicate that
residents are satisfied with the scope and level of services
provided by the City of Oak Creek (Thorn and Eberle, 1978) .
IX-54
-------
The City of Oak Creek has high, development standards. These
requirements, based on engineering estimates, include sanitary
and storm sewers, water mains, curb and gutter, concrete
streets, and lights. There are no school or park dedication
requirements.
General government services include the Mayor and Common.
Council, the City Clerk and Treasurer, City Planning and
several other administrative departments. These services
are not expected to be adversely affected by new development.
A small number of additional personnel may need to be hired
over the next 10 years to handle increased workloads, but
any of the alternatives would place the same demand on these
services.
The police and fire departments (public safety) are structured
and staffed to serve the City's area (28 square miles)
rather than population. This is primarily due to the fact
that both departments provide service to property as well as
people. Non-residential sectors place significant demand on
these services.
New residential developments are not expected to create a
substantial fiscal burden on fire department operations
unless service levels are raised.
Similarly, new residential development is not expected to
create a fiscal burden on the police department. The de-
partment is in the process of moving to a new facility one
block away from its present headquarters, and no additional
major capital expenditures are anticipated.
The City is responsible for maintaining 94 miles of streets
and roads within its jurisdiction. Due to recent capital
improvements, none of these roads are expected to be negatively
impacted by the additional traffic that would be generated
by new residential development.
The Oak Creek library has been built to handle more demand
than currently exists. New residential development is not
expected to have an adverse effect on this service.
The one service provided by the City that is considered by
current residents to be "somewhat" inadequate is parks and
recreation. Parks and recreation could face increasing
demands for facilities and services as Oak Creek's population
grows. The cost of serving additional population depends on
the amount of park acreage and type of parks and programs
desired.
IX-55
-------
Finally, user charges are levied for water service. Revenues
are said to meet cost; thus, problems are not anticipated in
serving additional households throughout the City.
Summary
Both the City of Oak Creek and the Oak Creek-Franklin Joint
City School District fl appear to be well-equipped to serve
additional residential development within Oak Creek.
Each of the three alternatives is expected to generate the
same total amount of revenues in Oak Creek. It is likely
that there could be a slight service cost differential among
the three alternatives. The scattering of development
throughout the City, under the Action Alternative of building
the interceptor might affect the cost of transporting students
to school.
The No Action Alternative is expected to have a lesser
impact on the City and school services than either of the
two Action Alternatives because development would be
concentrated in established residential areas and will
follow traditional development paths in the City.
SUMMARY
The development alternatives for the communities discussed
in this report produce varying fiscal impacts. Table IX-30
summarizes the quantified net fiscal effect in both 1990
per additional household costs and in total dollars for New
Berlin, Germantown, and the Northwest Side of the City of
Milwaukee.
The residential development alternatives in New Berlin
all create a net fiscal burden on the City and school district.
However, the No Action Alternative has the smallest annual
fiscal burden. This primarily reflects the need to add
school facilities to accommodate the substantial growth
expected under the Action Alternatives.
Residential development under the Action and No Action
Alternatives does not create a net fiscal burden on Germantown
and is a benefit on the Northwest Side of Milwaukee.
The excess of revenues over costs is small for Germantown
under the Action Alternative, while net per household revenues
increase substantially under the No Action Alternative.
These results indicate the significant costs associated with
higher levels of development. No Action is most fiscally
advantageous to Germantown.
IX-56
-------
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For the Northwest Side of the City of Milwaukee, revenues
exceed costs by a substantial margin—almost $3,QQQ per
household—as a result of the present excess capacity within
the City and school district. This totals almost $20 million
per year under Action and almost $23.5 million under No
Action.
Within Menomonee Falls, identical levels of growth are
projected under the Action and No Action Alternatives.
Therefore, the net fiscal impact on the Village and school
district would be the same under either alternative.
From an indirect fiscal impact perspective, the No Action
is most advantageous. It results in a modest positive
cost/revenue balance in Germantown in 1990 and a net positive
addition to the financial position of the City of Milwaukee—
almost $23.5 million total and $3.5 million greater than
Action.
Within Oak Creek, identical population and household in-
creases were projected under the two Action and the No
Action Alternatives. The fiscal impact analysis was largely
qualitative and differences between alternatives would be
slight.
Both the City of Oak Creek and the Oak Creek-Franklin Joint
City School District #1 appear to be well-equipped to serve
additional development in Oak Creek. The two Action Alterna-
tives (building the interceptor and upgrading the lift
station) could generate minor service cost differentials
compared to the No Action Alternative due to the broader
distribution of new residential development. Each of the
three alternatives is expected to generate the same total
amount of revenues.
IX-58
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INTERVIEWS CONDUCTED FOR
FISCAL EFFECTS OF SECONDARY GROWTH IMPACTS
Menomonee Falls-Germantown Interceptor Area;
1. Assessor's Office, City of Milwaukee.
2. Mr. Bates, Business Office, Milwaukee Public Library.
3. Mr. Richard Farrenkopf, Assistant to the Manager,
Village of Menomonee Falls.
4. Mr. John MacKinnon, Germantown Engineer.
5. Mr. Ed McMillan, Planning Department of the Milwaukee
Public Schools.
6. Mr. Tom Miller, Senior Planner, Division of Comprehensive
Planning and Programming, Milwaukee Department of City
Development.
7. Mr. Daniel Moberly, Assistant Administrator for Business
Matters, Germantown School District.
8. Mr. Frank Paul, Municipal Bond Department, The First
National Bank of Chicago.
9. Mr. Richard Phillipson, Business Manager, School
District of Menomonee Falls.
10. Mr. John Tinglen, Wisconsin State Department of Public
Instruction.
New Berlin, Wisconsin:
1. Mr. Gordon Hennum, Assistant Superintendent, New Berlin
Public Schools.
2. Mr. Jerry Hudy, New Berlin Tax Assessor's Office.
3. Mr. Rick Kuckkahn, City Planner, New Berlin.
4. Mr. Frank Paul, Municipal Bond Department, The First
National Bank of Chicago.
-------
New Berlin, Wisconsin (Continued)
5. Mr. John Tinglen, Wisconsin State Department of Public
Instruction.
6. Average housing market values in part determined in
interviews with area developers and realtors:
• Mr. Dick Hochschild, Marshall and Isley Bank
(Regal Manor developer)
• Ms. Dorothy Knapp, Thomson Realty (new developers)
• Mr. Joel Starck, Mark Starck and Sons
(contractor-developer)
Oak Creek, Wisconsin:
1. Mr. Paul Milewski, Oak Creek Director of Planning
and Industrial Development.
2. Mr. Arthur Olson, Business Manager, Oak Creek-Franklin
Joint City School District #1.
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CHAPTER X
SECONDARY NATURAL
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
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CHAPTER X
SECONDARY NATURAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
INTRODUCTION
Future development in Germantown, New Berlin, and Oak
Creek (attributed to increased sewer capacity) could have
indirect impacts to the natural environment. Agricultural
land, wildlife habitat, wetlands, or floodplains may
be converted to urban and suburban land; erosion from
construction sites could add silt to streams; and the
furnaces and cars used by the new households would add
to air pollution.
Improperly planned urban development can significantly
degrade sensitive environmental areas. The environmental
corridors delineated in the SEWRPC Regional Land Use
Plan are assumed to contain all of the sensitive environmental
areas: woodland, wetlands, and floodplains. SEWRPC has
also identified the prime agricultural land and parkland
in the region. Soil erosion occurs whenever the soil is
disturbed by tilling or by construction. Soil loss may
increase from a maximum of 45 tons per acre per year for
agricultural land to 24,500 tons per acre per year for
land under development (IJC, 1978) . This could result
in the filling of stream channels, increased turbidity
of water, and the loss of habitat for many aquatic biota.
GERMANTOWN
Present zoning ordinances in the Village of Germantown
protect more environmentally sensitive land than is recommended
by the SEWRPC Plan. If the ordinances remain in force,
none of this environmentally sensitive land will be lost
to future development. Sedimentation of the Menomonee
River is still a possibility. The river's slow flow and
numerous tributaries would facilitate the transportation
and deposition of sediments in the river. About 1,100 acres
of land could be developed from 1980 to 2000 (without
increased sewer capacity, no more land would be developed),
which could generate up to 850 tons of sediment each year.
By comparison, the Menomonee River at Germantown presently
carries about 200 tons of sediment each year (USGS, 1979).
NEW BERLIN
Future development in New Berlin could extend beyond the
SEWRPC Plan projected residential area and result in
X-l
-------
development throughout the southern part of the City.
The Hales Corners Interceptor could induce at least 1,000
more acres of land to be developed for residential use
than would be developed without the interceptor. Suburban
growth would occur in the areas designated as such in the
SEWRPC Plan, and there could be pressure (and sewer capacity)
to develop other vacant land zoned for residential use.
The expected development would be in a large tract of
abandoned farmland that has stands of small trees which
could be used as wildlife habitat. Other sensitive environ-
mental areas, such as small wetlands and the floodplain
of Tess Corners Creek, could also be encroached upon.
Sediments could be generated by the future development--
as much as 800 tons per year. Much of this would be expected
to be redeposited on the land surface, and only a small
percentage would reach Tess Corners Creek or Deer Creek,
due to the lack of an extensive drainage system. Nonetheless,
substantial erosion and sedimentation would be possible.
OAK CREEK
The city of Oak Creek's zoning plan differs from the SEWRPC
Land Use Plan in the southern end of the service area,
where the Oak Creek is joined by its North Branch. The pre-
sent land use is parkland, woodland, and wetland along the
creeks, and SEWRPC has recommended that the area be conserved
as an environmental corridor. The City of Oak Creek has
zoned the land for industrial and high-density residential
uses. If the Oak Creek interceptor is built, it may induce
development of the residentially zoned land, resulting
in the loss of a natural area. (It is possible that the
industrially zoned land could be developed with or without
the interceptor.)
Future development in the Oak Creek Interceptor service
area would consist of 500 more acres of new residential
development by the year 2000. Much of this development
would take place on land presently used for agriculture,
with some woodlands and wetlands (such as those in the
southern part of the service area) also being converted
to residential land. The construction of the interceptor
could reduce the extent of woodlands along the North Branch
of Oak Creek.
New residential developments may add as much as 400 tons
of sediment per year to the Oak Creek and the North Branch.
Drainage is relatively direct, and much of the sediment
would probably reach the streams. The sediments could
fill the channels and reduce the hydraulic capacity of
the streams, increasing the risk of upstream flooding.
X-2
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AIR QUALITY
The EPA has established national standards for ambient
air quality (primary standards to protect health; secondary
standards to protect the public welfare, specifically
property, vegetation, and aesthetics]. In April 1971,
EPA established standards for major air pollutants—sulfur
dioxide, particulate matter, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons,
nitrogen dioxide, and photochemical oxidants. Areas of the
nation which do not meet these standards have been designated
as "non-attainment areas". These national ambient air
quality standards (NAAQS) became the basis for the develop-
ment of State Implementation Plans (SIPs). Each state was
required to adopt and submit a SIP to the EPA which provided
for the attainment and maintenance of these national
ambient air quality standards within each air quality control
region, or portion thereof which was designated non-attainment.
The entire SEWRPC region exceeds the national standards
for ozone; portions of Milwuakee, Waukesha, Racine and
Kenosha counties exceed the total suspended particulate
matter standard; the carbon monoxide standard is exceeded
in portions of Milwaukee County; and the sulfur dioxide
standard has been exceeded in the City of Milwuakee.
See Map X-l.
The EPA also developed a new planning approach: the Air
Quality Maintenance Area planning program. The Southeastern
Wisconsin seven county region is an air quality maintenance
area (AQMA) which is aimed at long-range planning solutions
to air quality problems. The Southeastern Regional Planning
Commission (SEWRPC) is responsible for population and
economic growth projections and determinations of impacts
from growth on air quality in the AQMA. SEWRPC is currently
working on this report (Planning Report No. 28, A Regional
Air Quality Maintenance Plan).
EXISTING CONDITIONS
The interceptor study areas of Germantown, Oak Creek, and
New Berlin area are shown on Map X-l. Existing land use
and population have been discussed in detail in earlier
sections. Air quality in the study areas meets standards
except for the ozone standard. The entire seven county
Southeastern Wisconsin Region is designated as a non-attain-
ment area for ozone, and portions of Milwaukee County (Map X-l)
are designated non-attainment areas for carbon monoxide
and suspended particulates. No violations of nitrogen
dioxide standards have been recorded in the county. Esti-
mated existing air quality for the study areas is shown
below in Table X-l, based on available air quality monitoring
data and air quality simulation modeling by the DNR and SEWRPC.
X-3
-------
MAP X-l
AIR QUALITY
NONATTAINMENT AREAS
Total Suspended Particulatt
Primary Nonattainment
Aria Boundary
Total Suspended Particulate
Secondary Nonottainm«nt
Area Boundary
Carbon Monoxide
Nonattainment
Area Boundary
111 Study Areas
Menomonee Falls -
Germantown
2) Hales Corntrs
3) Oak Cr«ek
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X-4
-------
TABLE X-l
Sulfur Dioxide
Particulate Annual Annual Arithmetic Carbon Monoxide
Geometric Mean Mean in 8 hr. Annual Max-
in micrograms/m3 micrograms/m3 imum in ppm
Germantown 45-50
Oak Creek 45-50
New Berlin 45-50
EPA Standard
(Primary) 75
20-30
20-30
20-30
80
1-2
2-5
2-5
Major sources of air pollutants are automobile exhaust,
home heating, agricultural activities, industrial processes
and incineration or fuel use.
FUTURE CONDITIONS
Land use and land use changes in New Berlin, Germantown,
and Oak Creek are discussed in Chapter 5 of the EIS.
Significant uses of land related to air quality would
be agricultural, residential, and industrial. Air pollution
levels in the atmosphere are directly related to the inten-
sity of urbanization. As urbanization increases, less
agricultural land use and more residential and industrial
land use occurs, and air pollution problems may also be
expected to increase. The calculated percentage increase
in residential and industrial land use based on total
land use in the study area is shown in Table X-2. Much
of the land will come from presently used agricultural
land, some from open land or woodlands.
TABLE X-2
Total Acres
Germantown 5,732
Oak Creek 3,804
New Berlin 15,923
Source: SEWRPC
Residential
+19
+15
+ 8.7
Industrial
+0.6
+3.8
+0.9
Ambient air quality in the study areas forecast for the
year 2000 by SEWRPC (based on existing air quality, predicted
land use and the recommended transportation plan and
planned air pollution control measures) will be very similar
to the existing conditions. The increase in air pollutants
X-5
-------
due to increased urban activities, will be offset by emis-
sion reductions from automobiles, industries, and agricul-
tural activities. Therefore, no significant degradation
in air quality should occur as a result of land use changes
induced by the project.
X-6
-------
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
Burchell, Robert W. and Listokin, David. The Fiscal
Impact Handbook. New Brunswick, NJ: The Center
for Urban Policy Research, 1978.
Citizens' Governmental Research Bureau, Milwaukee, WI.
Volume 66, Number 13, December 16, 1978
Volume 67, Number 3, February 10, 1979
Volume 67, Number 5, March 24, 1979
Volume 67, Number 7, June 23, 1979.
Germantown, Village of. Financial Statements and
Supplementary Information, Years Ended December 31,
1977 and 1978; with Report of Certified Public
Accountants.
Germantown School District Board of Education. Annual
School Meeting Report: 1978-1979, Germantown School
District.
Milwaukee, City of, Department of City Development. A
Study of Public Attitudes Toward the Quality of Life
and the Effectiveness of Services in Milwaukee,
Wisconsin. May, 1978.
Menomonee Falls, Village of. 1978 Annual Report.
Menomonee Falls, School District of. Menomonee Falls
Public Schools: 1978 School Census.
Menomonee Falls, School District of. Budget - Tax Levy
Projections for the School District of Menomonee Falls,
January 22, 1979 (updated June 12, 1979).
New Berlin, City of. 1979 Proposed Budget.
New Berlin School District. Enrollment Report: New
Berlin Public Schools. October 31, 1979.
Oak Creek, City of. 1979 Proposed Budget. Prepared
November 20, 1978.
Oak Creek-Franklin Joint City School District Number One.
1979-1980 Budget.
-------
Total Pupil Enrollment 1979-1980. September
21, 1979.
Parks, James. 53% in City Want Out. Milwaukee Journal,
March 27, 1977.
Southeastern Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission.
Household Response to Motor Fuel Shortages and
Higher Prices in Southeastern Wisconsin. August, 1976,
. A Place for the Jefferson Park Neighborhood,
Village of Germantown, WI. 1978.
. A Survey of Public Opinion in Southeastern
Wisconsin. 1972.
Thorn, Connie J. and Eberle, Harry P. Oak Creek Citizen
Survey. Conducted July to August, 1978. August
25, 1978.
Wisconsin, State of, Department of Administration, State
Planning Office. Public Service Costs and Development.
1975.
Wisconsin, State of, Department of Revenue, Property
Assessment Office - Southeastern District. 1978
Assessment/Sales Ratio Analysis.
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