United States
                     Environmental Protection
                     Agency
Environmental Research
Laboratory
Athens GA 30613
                     Research and Development
EPA/600/S3-85/051   July 1987
&EPA           Project  Summary
                     Exposure Assessment
                     Modeling for  Aldicarb  in  Florida
                     J. D. Dean and D. F. Atwood
                      A modeling study was performed to
                     assess aldicarb concentrations in drink-
                     ing water wells in the vicinity of citrus
                     groves in Florida.  Areas in the citrus
                     growing region  were identified, with
                     respect to the unsaturated and  satu-
                     rated zones,  in which transport and
                     transformation of aldicarb was thought
                     to be different. In addition, an extensive
                     literature search  was conducted to
                     determine  degradation  rates  and
                     adsorption  coefficients for aldicarb.
                     These regional and chemical data were
                     used  to  define various  simulation
                     scenarios. The fate and migration of
                     aldicarb was  then simulated for the
                     unsaturated zone  using the Pesticide
                     Root Zone Model and for the saturated
                     zone using the Combined Fluid-Energy
                     Solute Transport Model.
                      Results of the  unsaturated  zone
                     modeling showed that there were three
                     statistically  distinct  scenarios  with
                     regard to pesticide leaching: "ridge"
                     soils  with thick unsaturated zones;
                     ' 'ridge"  soils with  thin unsaturated
                     zones; and  ' "flatwoods"  soils. The
                     highest loads  leached to ground water
                     were approximately 1 kg/ha, occurring
                     in areas  of  ' 'ridge" soils with thin
                     unsaturated zones.
                      Combined results of the unsaturated
                     and saturated zone modeling showed
                     that,  in general, drinking  water well
                     concentrations should be low but may
                     exceed 10 ppb for aldicarb.  The highest
                     simulated concentrations were in the
                     range of 12 to 20 ppb, or three to four
                     times the detection limit of the chem-
                     ical (5 to 6 ppb).  Highest simulated
                     concentrations  were  in the surficial
                     unconfined aquifer system, overlain
                     with  ''ridge"  soils having a  thin
                     unsaturated zone.
  The effects of well distance from the
source area also were investigated.  In
the surficial aquifer, with  hydrogeo-
logic properties most conducive  to
aldicarb  transport, a well at 300  m
(1000 ft) versus a well at 91  m (300
ft) should have from 2 to 100 times
less aldicarb, depending  on pesticide
decay characteristics.
  Because of the regional scope of the
study and  model  limitations,  ' 'cata-
strophic" situations such as the pres-
ence of sink holes or leaky wells that
would result in much higher  concen-
trations  were not simulated. These
situations  are not discussed in the
report.
  This Project Summary was devel-
oped by EPA's Environmental Re-
search  Laboratory. Athens.  GA.  to
announce key findings of the research
project that is fully documented in a
separate report of the same title (see
Project Report ordering information at
back).

Introduction
  The pesticide aldicarb is used exten-
sively in Florida  for the control  of
nematodes  and other pests in  citrus
orchards. A systemic insecticide, it is
highly mobile in soils and  very toxic.
Evidence of aldicarb contamination  in
ground water  in  Florida prompted a
March 1983 suspension of its use in  all
but three Florida counties. In September
1983, the  use of the compound was
reinstated with  the restrictions that it
would not be used within  90 m (300 ft)
of drinking  water wells and that appli-
cation would be at half the label rate.
  To provide an  assessment of the
migration and fate of aldicarb in typical
Florida citrus applications, a modeling

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study was conducted with emphasis on
the potential for leaching and ground-
water contamination. This information
can  be  used subsequently to perform
exposure and risk  assessments and  to
evaluate the effects of management
alternatives and current use restrictions
on the compound.
  The approach used was to collect and
analyze  information on compound- and
site-specific factors, and  then to use
models to provide the interactive linkages
that  would result in estimation of well-
water concentrations. From the chemical
information, values of constants used in
modeling (adsorption coefficients, decay
and transformation rate coefficients, etc.)
were determined. The site-specific infor-
mation was used to delineate a number
of scenarios that  represent  the  likely
conditions for use  of the chemical and
where the fate and transport behavior of
the  chemical can  vary significantly.
These scenarios may differ, for instance.
because of climatic, soils or  hydrogeo-
logic variables in addition to  chemical
application and agronomic practices. The
information also was used at later stages
to develop model parameter sets for each
scenario.
  Site-specific data were gathered on the
Florida  citrus  growing region. This
information collection effort was divided
into  two phases: characteristics of the
land surface and unsaturated zone; and
characteristics of the  saturated zone.
Factors  of particular  interest in the
unsaturated zone were rainfall depths
across region, soil hydraulic conductiv-
ities  and  pH, and  irrigation and other
management practices. In the saturated
zone, recharge  rates, aquifer hydraulic
conductivity, water table  gradients,
aquifer  configuration, ground-water
temperature and  pH  are  of primary
interest.
  This information was used to delineate
both  unsaturated  and  saturated zone
modeling scenarios. These delineations
were based on observed variations in the
important  factors that can  result  in
significantly different fate and transport
behavior.  The chemical properties  of
particular interest for aldicarb are trans-
formation rate coefficients for the parent
compound to aldicarb sulfoxide  and
aldicarb sulfone, and hydrolysis rates and
soil  partition  coefficients  for  each
species.
  The Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM)
and  the Combined  Fluid-Energy-Solute
Transport (CFEST) model were chosen to
represent the unsaturated and saturated
zones, respectively.  For  each unsatu-
rated zone scenario, PRZM was  run to
produce  a time series  and frequency
distribution of pesticide loadings. These
loadings were  subsequently  used by
CFEST to produce estimates of wellwater
concentrations.  Within each  saturated
zone scenario, sensitivity to factors such
as distance from source  area  to wells,
size of source area, pesticide loading and
decay rates was determined.

Unsaturated  Zone Results
  The annual pesticide loadings from 16
final unsaturated zone scenarios were
analyzed in several ways. First, geomet-
ric  mean loadings from all  scenarios
were subjected to  one way analysis of
variance (ANOVA) to determine whether
any  substantive differences  occurred
between  the mean  loadings of the
various  scenarios. These  analyses
showed that, of the means of the 16
scenarios simulated, the only significant
differences were among thick ridge soils
(i.e., entisols and  ultisols),  thin ridge
soils, and flatwood soils.  Visual inspec-
tion  of  the frequency  distribution of
annually leached  pesticide loads con-
firmed this. Thus, the outputs of  the 16
scenarios were  condensed  into  three
scenarios: "ridge"  areas with thick
unsaturated zones; "ridge" areas with
thin unsaturated zones; and "flatwoods"
areas.
  The lowest loadings were associated,
in general,  with  thick  entisols  and
ultisols. For this scenario, there  is only
a 10% probability that the pesticide load
leached to ground water will exceed 0.01
kg/ha. Loads from alfisols and spodosols
slightly  exceeded  those  for  the thick
entisols and ultisols. The highest load-
ings occurred in thin unsaturated zone
entisols  and  ultisols. There  is a  10%
chance  that loads  to ground water will
exceed 0.3 kg/ha.  The thickness of the
unsaturated zone in this scenario is 180
cm for ultisols and 270 cm for entisols
and  the  input load (application rate) is
5.6  kg/ha (5 Ib/acre).  Increasing or
decreasing the  load for any  of these
scenarios by a factor of "x" would result
in an increase  or  decrease in the load
by the same factor. For instance, if the
application rate were doubled from 5.6
kg/ha to 11.2 kg/ha, the  simulated load
at the  10%  exceedance  level in  thin
entisols and ultisols also would double,
from 0.3 kg/ha to 0.6 kg/ha.
  Also of interest  is  the  quantity  of
aldicarb and that of  its two toxic metab-
olites in the leached load.  Simulations
revealed that usually less than one
percent of the aldicarb parent is leached
to the saturated zone under any scenario.
Under the thin, unsaturated zone ultisols
and entisols, about 60% aldicarb sulfox-
ide and 40% aldicarb sulfone makes up
the leached load (a 1.5 to 1 ratio).  In the
thick,  unsaturated  zone entisols and
ultisols, the  ratio is  closer to 0.17 to 1,
sulfoxide to  sulfone. For spodosols and
alfisols, the  ratio  is roughly the same,
0.19 to 1.
  Obviously, because these transforma-
tions are kinetically  controlled, the
quantity of aldicarb  and its toxic metab-
olites appearing in the  leachate is a
function  of  the residence time  of the
chemical in the profile.  The sooner after
application the pesticide is leached to the
saturated zone, the more aldicarb and
aldicarb  sulfoxide   will  appear in the
leachate.

Saturated Zone  Results
  In  general, the surficial aquifer  cases
show the highest relative concentrations
followed by the worst cases for the
Floridan Aquifer and then the average
casesforthe Floridan andthetwo aquifer
cases.  The  surficial aquifer has  high
relative concentrations for two reasons.
The relatively thin aquifer has less water
for dilution of the pesticide load from the
unsaturated zone. Also, the well-induced
gradients and permeabilities are  high
enough to  significantly increase the
ground-water velocity to the well. This
allows less  time  for decay. The high
concentrations determined for the worst
case scenarios in the Floridan Aquifer are
primarily due to the high ground-water
velocities that leave little time for  decay
or dispersion. The two-aquifer scenarios
and the average Floridan scenarios have
slower ground-water velocities and
thicker  aquifers that dilute the  initial
pesticide concentrations.
  Concentrations are higher in wells 91
m away from the source area. Even in
cases with no decay, the relative con-
centrations at the 300 m well are smaller
because  there is  more dispersion. The
Floridan worst cases show only a differ-
ence of about 20% between the  91  m
and  the 300 m cases. For  the average
Floridan and surficial  worst cases,
relative concentrations are usually  at
least an  order of  magnitude smaller at
the 300 m  well than at the 91 m well.
Again,  the greater amount of time

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required to travel to the 300 m well
allows more time for decay to occur.

Conclusions
  This modeling study was intended to
provide estimates of aldicarb concentra-
tions for a human health risk assess-
ment. The judgment as to whether these
study  results represent  favorable  or
unfavorable situations in that respect
goes beyond the scope of this report.
Considering the worst-case simulation
scenarios and the potential uncertainties
in the technical approach, this study has
shown that the use of aldicarb on citrus
in Florida could potentially lead to well-
water concentrations exceeding 10 ppb
although  most  estimates  were  much
lower.
  The results are based on model repres-
entations of generalized, regional unsat-
urated  and saturated zone modeling
scenarios.  Such a study, of necessity,
overlooks specific "special  situations"
that may occur within these regions.  To
ameliorate the effects of such oversights,
the general approach was to attempt to
look at  "worst case" values of param-
eters that could  be selected to describe
these generalized scenarios and to adopt
other "average case" values when worst
cases values gave results indicative of
high contamination levels. This was not
done in all cases.
  The  highest concentration simulated
(in  the  surficial  aquifer) of 20.3 ppb is
within a factor of three  to four of the
detection limit for aldicarb and exceeds
the current drinking water standard. This
was for a scenario in which no pesticide
decay was simulated in the saturated
zone. The more realistic scenarios were
those that assumed decay using the best
available estimates for the degradation
coefficient. The  highest simulated con-
centration  among  the  decay scenarios
was 0.4 ppb.  This  concentration was
simulated in the Floridan aquifer with a
shallow well 91  m from the source and
in the surficial aquifer with  a  shallow
well 91 m from the source. In both cases,
the  overlying  soils were  thin  "ridge"
soils.
  Based on results of  the unsaturated
zone simulations, a  number  of recom-
mendations can  be made for practices
that will tend to  diminish loadings from
the unsaturated zone:

• Avoid the application  of  aldicarb  in
   ridge areas where  there  is  a  thin
   unsaturated zone (i.e., a high ground-
  water table).
 • Avoid the  application of irrigation
   water in the treated  soil bands' in
   quantities that  would cause  move-
   ment of water and pesticide past the
   crop root zone.

 • Avoid the  application of irrigation
   water for freeze protection after the
   application of aldicarb to a grove.

  Based  on the results from the satu-
rated zone  simulations,  a  number  of
recommendations can be made that will
tend  to  reduce expected well-water
concentrations:

 • Avoid application  of  pesticide up-
   gradient of  wells that  interest major
   solution cavities in areas where the
   aquifer is unconfined or where direct
   linkages exist. (This can sometimes be
   discovered from drilling logs.)

 • Avoid application near wells  in the
   surficial aquifer  that have high pump-
   ing rates and are closely surrounded
   by citrus groves.

 • Avoid using shallow wells where the
   localized induced  gradient  is  very
   large.

 • Use of  a well  tapping a confined
   aquifer will be safer than one in an
   unconfined aquifer.

 • Use of deep wells that draw water
   from a large section of the aquifer will
   result in lower  concentrations than
   similar wells that are shallower.

Overall Project
  The modeling study described  in this
summary is part of a  risk assessment
performed by EPA to evaluate the poten-
tial risk posed by aldicarb  contamination
of drinking water in Florida.  Other
components of the  study (reported
elsewhere) include a detailed monitoring
of drinking  water  supplies and  a risk
assessment for populations using public
and private water supply wells.

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     J. D. Dean and D. F. Atwood are with Anderson-Nichols & Co., Inc., Palo Alto,
       CA 94303.
     L. A. Mulkey is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
     The complete report, entitled "Exposure Assessment Modeling for Aldicarb in
       Florida." (Order No. PB 87-188 801/AS; Cost: $30.95) will be available only
       from:
            National Technical Information Service
            5285 Port Royal Road
            Springfield, VA 22161
            Telephone: 703-487-4650
     The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
            Environmental Research Laboratory
            U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
            Athens, GA 30613
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