United States
                   Environmental Protection
                   Agency     	
Air and Energy Engineering
Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park NC 2771
                   Research and Development
 EPA/600/S7-89/008  Dec. 1989
v>EPA        Project Summary
                  Reranking of Area Sources  in
                  Light of Seasonal/Regional
                  Emission  Factors  and
                  State/Local  Needs
                  Sharon L. Kersteter
                    The  Clean Air Act deadline for
                  attaining the national  ambient air
                  quality standard (NAAQS) for ozone
                  was the end of 1987. The failure of 68
                  U.S. metropolitan areas to attain the
                  ozone standard by December 31,1987
                  was one of the  major environmental
                  issues  of  1988. Ozone  is photo-
                  chemically  produced in the atmos-
                  phere  when volatile organic  com-
                  pounds (VOCs) are  mixed  with
                  nitrogen oxides  (NOX)  and carbon
                  monoxide (CO)  in the  presence of
                  sunlight To develop and  implement
                  an effective ozone control strategy,
                  information must be compiled and
                  reviewed on the sources of these
                  precursor pollutants.
                    Although substantial emission con-
                  trols have  been placed  on many
                  stationary point  and mobile  sources
                  and significant improvements  have
                  been made, the ozone standard has
                  not been attained in many metro-
                  politan  areas.  Many area sources
                  have not yet had any controls applied
                  even though they are known to be a
                  substantial source of VOC emissions.
                  To determine the area  source  cate-
                  gories  on which to place emission
                  controls, area sources must be evalu-
                  ated to identify those categories
                  where controls can be both effective
                  and feasible. Regional and seasonal
                  patterns of emissions should also be
                  investigated, as these characteristics
                  can influence the effectiveness of the
                  emission controls.
                    This project has been designed to
                  provide a better understanding of
area sources and their emissions, to
prioritize their importance  as  VOC
emitters, and to identify sources for
which better emission estimation
methodologies are  needed.  The
specific  goals of this task are  as
follows:
1.  prioritize area sources, identifying
   both seasonal and regional emis-
   sion dependencies;
2.  prioritize solvent categories for
   future  work,  seasonally  and
   regionally, using tonnages;
3.  identify factors affecting  the vari-
   ability of each  area source cate-
   gory; and
4.  document inventory assumptions
   and seasonal/regional factors and
   discuss  reliability, pointing out
   the weakest and most important
   assumptions.
  This Project Summary was devel-
oped by EPA's  Air and Energy Engi-
neering Research  Laboratory, Re-
search Triangle Park, NC, to announce
key findings of the research project
that is fully documented in a  separate
report of the same title (see Project
Report ordering information at back).

Introduction
  The goals listed above are designed to
build  upon one  another so that  an
improved procedure  and/or test case  for
estimating  emissions from a given area
source category can be developed. The
work outlined below (and discussed  in
greater detail in the full  report) leads  up
to that point.

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Area Source Prioritization
  Area sources are ranked from highest
emissions contributors to lowest for  EPA
Regions 1, 2, 6, and 9 on both an annual
and seasonal basis (summer,  or ozone
season, emissions). Two sets of seasonal
factors,  one  from the  National  Acid
Precipitation Assessment  Program
(NAPAP)  methodology and one from the
Regional  Oxidant  Modeling for Northeast
Transport  (ROMNET) process,  are used.
Rankings are compared within states and
between  states  and regions. Annual and
summer  emissions  for  Region  9   are
shown in  Figures 1 and 2, respectively.
  The National  Emissions Data  System
(NEDS)  Evaporative Loss—Solvents  Pur-
chased category (SCC  053)  is disaggre-
gated into the NAPAP solvent categories
078 through  101  and reported  by State
and Regional totals for EPA Regions  1, 2,
6, and 9. The solvent  categories   are
identified in Table  1. These categories are
ranked from high  to  low  with respect to
annual emissions and are reranked in  light
of seasonal variations using ROMNET and
NAPAP seasonal adjustment factors.  Data
for Region 9 are shown in Table 2 and in
Figures 3 and 4.
Table 1.   NAPAP Area Source  Solvent
          Categories

   SCC        Category Description

   078    Degreasing
   079    Dry Cleaning
   080    Graphic Arts/Printing
   081    Rubber and Plastics
           Manufacturing
   082    Architectural Coatings
   083    Auto Body Repair
   084    Motor Vehicle Manufacture
   085    Paper Coating
   086    Fabricated Metals
   087    Machinery Manufacturing
   088    Furniture Manufacturing
   089    Flat Wood Products
   090    Other Transportation
           Equipment Manufacturing
   091    Electrical Equipment
           Manufacturing
   092    Shipbuilding and Repair
   093    Miscellaneous Surface Coating
   095    Miscellaneous Solvent Use
Validity of Results
  NEDS/NAPAP-generated emission esti-
mates for  four  counties  in  Texas  are
compared  to  estimates generated in an
         Fuel Combustion-
         Pesidential-Wood (8.3%)
                                         Evaporative Loss-
                                         Solvents Purchased (49.7%)
 Figure 1.  Percent of nonmobile area source categories —Region 9.
emissions trends analysis for the same
four counties using EPA ozone precursor
methodologies. The  "top-down" proced-
ures used by  NEDS/NAPAP are com-
pared with the "bottom-up" EPA  ozone
precursor procedures for the categories
where the emissions estimates differed
significantly.
  Rankings  using  NAPAP seasonal
(summer)  adjustment factors are com-
pared to rankings using ROMNET sea-
sonal adjustment factors. ROMNET sea-
sonal adjustment factors  have  been
developed for  the following categories:
pleasure boating/ gasoline vessels (SCC
052); gasoline  service  stations  (SCC
054); trade paints/  architectural surface
coatings (SCC  082); pesticides  (SCC
094); bulk gas terminals (SCC 103); and
hazardous waste treatment, storage, and
disposal facilities  (SCC  109).  These
factors are substituted for  NAPAP sea-
sonal  adjustment factors  (where
appropriate)  and emissions  are  recal-
culated  for the area source categories
affected. The  solvent  categories  are
reranked using the  ROMNET factors to
identify their effects.
  The bases for the development of the
NAPAP  and ROMNET seasonal adjust-
ment  factors are reviewed  and  com-
pared. Several "bottom-up" methodolo-
gies, are discussed.

Evaluation of Three Area
Source Solvent Categories
  The identification and discussion of the
basis  for the NAPAP solvent allocation
methodology and emission estimates for
three  NAPAP solvent categories,  (SCC
082-Architectural Coatings, SCC 093-
Miscellaneous Surface  Coatings,  and
SCC 095—Miscellaneous Solvent  Use)
are outlined. The original algorithm used
in  the NAPAP methodology and  recent
updates  to the methodology are  dis-
cussed.

Conclusions and
Recommendations
•  Among  States and  Regions, the
   ranking  of  area  source  categories
   based on  annual emissions consis-(
   tently shows  the evaporative  loss
   categories (Solvents  Purchased and

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     .—^Fuel Combustion-Residential-Wood (1.2%)
          Evaporative Loss-
         Gasoline Marketed (12 8%)
Evaporative Loss-
Solvents Purchased (60.4%)
Figure  2.  Percent of summer emissions for top nonmobile area source categories—Region 9.
   Gasoline Marketed) and Residential
   Wood Combustion to be the top three
   categories. Adjustment for the ozone
   season results in a drop in the ranking
   of Residential Wood Combustion,
   however, the  evaporative loss  cate-
   gories still show the highest rankings
   overall.
   Further  breakdown  of the Solvents
   Purchased category shows that  Misc-
   ellaneous Solvent Use and Miscellan-
   eous Surface  Coatings rank  first and
   second, respectively, for most states
   and  regions  covered  in this study.
   These rankings remain the same for
   both annual  and ozone season  emis-
   sions. In fact, seasonal adjustments to
   the annual emissions result in almost
   no change in  the rankings of solvent
   categories for all states and regions.
   Comparisons  of different methodol-
   ogies used  to  estimate emissions
   from certain  area sources show that
   results of the  different methodologies
   can  vary  drastically.  In  general,  the
   use  of  local  data to estimate
   emissions through "bottom-up" meth-
odologies provides more accurate and
reliable data than  the use of State or
national data allocated  to the county
or local area ("top-down" methodol-
ogies). "Bottom-up"  methodologies,
however, often require greater re-
sources, both  in  terms of  time and
money, than  "top-down"  method-
ologies.
Use  of  seasonal  adjustment  factors
shows changes in ranking  from the
annual rankings of some categories.
While actual tonnages may differ, use
of two different groups of  seasonal
adjustment factors,  NAPAP  and
ROMNET, result in the same seasonal
rankings in almost  all cases.  The
availability  of additional  ROMNET
seasonal adjustment  factors  may
cause minor  differences in seasonal
rankings, compared  to the NAPAP
rankings.
A  review  ol NEDS/NAPAP  source
methodologies and comparison  with
bottom-up  methodologies could be
used  by state and local inventorying
agencies. These would  include identi-
fication and resolution of variations in
the emission estimates between these
two inventory  sources. Feasible  and
effective control  measures to reduce
emissions  can not be applied effec-
tively to the area source categories if
the estimated emissions from  the
categories  are misrepresented by
either overestimation or  underesti-
mation.
The Miscellaneous Solvent Use cate-
gory  (SCC 095),  especially  the
Commercial/Consumer Solvent  Use
portion of this  category,  requires fur-
ther disaggregation, with  emphasis on
how the solvents are apportioned to
the various subcategories and on what
can be done to improve  this process.
For maximum  value,  NAPAP meth-
odology for the 1990 NAPAP inven-
tory should be updated periodically.

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Table 2.   Top Area Source Categories-Region 9
                                            Arizona
California
oiaie 	 > -
Ranking
1

2

3

4

5

6

7


Total Area Source VOC
(Excluding Hwy. Mobile
Hwy. Mobile Sources
Total State Area Source


Ranking
1

2

3

4

5

6

7


Total Area Source VOC
(Excluding Hwy. Mobile
Hwy. Mobile Sources
Source Category %
(Tons')
Evap. Loss Solv. Purch.
50,901
Evap. Loss Gas Mkted
14,618
Fuel Comb. Res. Wood
14,486
Managed Burning
8,645
Gas Off Hwy. Veh.
6,058
Res. On-Site Incn.
5,329
Cutback Asphalt
5,280

123,934
Sources)
88,700
VOC 212,634
Nevada
Source Category %
(Tons')
Evap. Loss Solv. Purch.
13,741
Fuel Comb. Res. Wood
6,652
Evap Loss Gas Mkted
4,682
Railroad Locomotives
1,815
Gas Off Hwy. Veh.
1,748
Cutback Asphalt
1,606
Vessels — Gasoline
1,481

37,932
Sources)
32,808
Nonhwy
VOC
41.1

11.8

11.7

7.0

4.9

4.3

4.3

(85.0)
100.0

-
-

Nonhwy
VOC
36.2

17.5

12.3

4.8

4.6

4.2

3.9

(83.6)
100.0

-
Total State Area Source VOC 70,740 -
% Total Area
Source VOC
23.9

6.9

6.8

4.1

2.8

2.5

2.5

(49.5)
58.3

41.7
100.0

% Total Area
Source VOC
19.4

9.4

6.6

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.1

(44.8)
53.6

46.4
100.0
Source Category %
(Tons)
Evap. Loss Solv. Purch.
526,525
Evap. Loss Gas Mkted
107,951
Fuel Comb. Res. Wood
77,013
Res. On-Site Incn.
59,899
Gas Off Hwy. Veh.
54,905
Forest Wildfires
42,541
Vessels-Gasoline
26,934

1,026,855

666,314
1,693,169
Region
Source Category %
(Tons)
Evap. Loss Solv. Purch.
591,167
Evap. Loss Gas Mkted
127,251
Fuel Comb. Res. Wood
98,151
Res. On-Site Incn.
66,694
Gas Off Hwy. Veh.
62,710
Forest Wildfires
44,014
Vessels — Gasoline
32,750

1.188,722

787,823
1,976,545
Nonhwy
VOC
51.3

10.5

7.5

5.8

5.3

4.1

2.6

(87.2)
100.0

-
-
IX
Nonhwy
VOC
49.7

10.7

8.3

5.6

5.3

3.7

2.8

(86.0)
100.0

-
—
% Total Area
Source VOC
31.1

6.4

4.5

3.5

3.2

2.5

1.6

(52.9)
60.6

39.4
100.0

% Total Area
Source VOC
29.9

6.4

50

3.4

3.2

2.2

1.7

(51.7)
60.1

39.9
100.0
"1 ton = 0.907 tonne

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                                               Miscellaneous Solvent
                                               Use (36.2%)
          Degreasing (8 4%)
             Auto Body (9.5%)
                                            Miscellaneous Surface
                                            Coating (11.6%)
Architectural
Coatings (10.0%)
Figure 3.  Solvent category emissions—Region 9.

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         Flat Wood Products (0.3%)
 Motor Vehicle Manufacturing (0.3%)
  Electrical Equipment Mfg. (0.4%) •
Other Transportation Equipment (0.2%)
  Shipbuilding and Repair (0.1%)
Figure 4.   Solvent "others" category emissions—Region 9.
                                                                                          U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1989/748-012/

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 Sharon L Kersteter is with Alliance Technologies Corp., Chapel Hill, NC 27514.
 Michael Kosusko is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
 The  complete  report,  entitled  "Reranking  of Area Sources  in  Light of
   Seasonal/Regional Emission Factors and State/Local Needs," (Order No. PB 90-
   110 115/AS; Cost: $23.00, subject to change) will be available only from:
         National Technical Information Service
         5285 Port Royal Road
         Springfield, VA 22161
         Telephone: 703-487-4650
 The EPA  Project Officer can be contacted at:
         Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
         U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
         Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Center for Environmental Research
Information
Cincinnati OH 45268
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use $300

EPA/600/S7-89/008
                         pSSfBCTIOi

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