United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Air and Energy Engineering
Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park. NC 27711
Research and Development
EPA/600/S7-88/008 Sept. 1988
Project Summary
Historic Emissions of Volatile
Organic Compounds in the
United States from 1900 to 1985
Gerhard Gschwandtner and Janice K. Wagner
This report presents an estimate
of historic emissions of volatile
organic compounds (VOCs) for each
state (and the District of Columbia)
of the contiguous U.S. Annual
emissions were estimated on the
national level from 1900 to 1985. For
1940, 1950, and every fifth year from
1960 to 1985, the national estimates
of the U.S. EPA were used. For the
other years, national emissions were
estimated from national activity data
and estimated emission factors for
individual source categories. Major
source categories include transpor-
tation, external combustion, indus-
trial processes, solid waste disposal,
and miscellaneous others. State level
emissions were estimated by ap-
plying allocation factors to the
national emission estimates. The
emissions from all source categories
were aggregated to show the
emission trend by state and Federal
region and for the U.S. Seasonal
emissions were estimated for each
year. The uncertainty of the emission
estimates was calculated based on
the methodology developed previ-
ously by NAPAP. The data presented
in Appendix B are available In Lotus
123 format on floppy disks.
This Project Summary was
developed by EPA's Mr and Energy
Engineering Research Laboratory,
Research Triangle Park, NC, to
announce key findings of the
research project that Is fully
documented in a separate report of
the same title (see Project Report
ordering information at back).
Introduction
The National Acid Precipitation
Assessment Program's (NAPAP's) Task
Group on Emissions and Controls is
responsible for compiling historic emis-
sions estimates of acid deposition
precursors. While S02 and NOX have
long been considered primary precursors
of acid precipitation, research is showing
that volatile organic compounds (VOCs)
are also an important constituent in many
atmospheric chemical reactions The
historic trend of VOC emissions is
important to understanding the role of
VOCs and other pollutants in the
development of observed environmental
damage. The historic trend is considered
essential to putting current emissions in a
long term perspective and studying rates
of change.
This report presents annual
estimates of emissions of VOCs for each
of the contiguous 48 states and the
District of Columbia. Emissions were
estimated using a detailed methodology
for every fifth year from 1900 to 1985.
The total VOC emissions of all states are
identical to the national emissions
reported by the U.S. EPA for common
years in the period from 1940 to 1985.
Annual emissions were estimated by
apportioning the national estimates for
every fifth year according to yearly
activity indicators representing the major
source categories.
Major Sources
For each state, VOC emissions were
estimated for five major source
categories: transportation, external fuel
combustion, industrial processes, solid
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waste disposal, and miscellaneous
others. Emissions were calculated by
aggregating those estimated for smaller
categories comprising each major
category. These subcategories represent
sources for which emission factors and
activity indicators could be obtained
directly from the U.S. EPA national
trends estimates. Collectively, these
source categories are considered to
account for all anthropogenic emissions.
Conclusions
The trend in VOC emissions from
1900 to 1985 is presented in Figure 1. A
peak, evident around 1930, is due to the
occurrence of wildfires at that time.
Emissions grew until the early 1970s,
when emission controls were imple-
mented for automobiles and industrial
processes.
Figure 2 illustrates the shifting
contributions of source categories over
time. In early years, combustion sources
(primarily wood) contributed most of the
VOC emissions. Since about 1940, the
transportation sector has dominated
other VOC emission categories. Emis-
sions from industrial sources have also
risen considerably since 1940.
A seasonal analysis of the historic
VOC data indicates that emissions in the
early 1900s occurred primarily in the fall
and winter, due to fuel combustion for
home heating. The seasonal emissions in
recent years are more evenly distributed.
The application of the NAPAP
uncertainty methodology, in this exam-
ple, suggests an uncertainty of 28% for
1985, increasing to over 500% for 1900.
The increase is due to the generally
poorer quality of the activity and
emission factor data available for early
years.
State-level activity and emissions
data by source category are available in
Appendix B to the report and in Lotus
123 format on floppy disks.
so 85
Figure 1. Total VOC emissions trend for the U.S. from 1900 to 1985.
O
o
Miscellaneous
Other Sources
190O 1910
1970
1980
Figure 2. Overall trend in VOC emissions by source category.
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G. Gschwandiner and J.K. Wagner are with E.H. Pechan and Associates, Inc.,
Durham, NC 27707.
J. David Mobley is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
The complete report consists of paper copy and diskettes, entitled "Historic
Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds in the United States from 1900
to 1985,"
Paper copy (Order No. PB 88-208 7231 AS; Cost: $19.95)
Diskettes (Order No. PB 88-250-3111 AS; Cost $125.00)
(Cost of diskettes includes paper copy)
The above items will be available only from: (cost subject to change)
National Technical Information Service
5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, VA 22161
Telephone: 703-487-4650
The EPA Protect Officer can be contacted at:
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Center for Environmental Research
Information
Cincinnati OH 45268
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