United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Air and Energy Engineering
Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park NC 27711
Research and Development
EPA/600/S8-87/059 Mar. 1988
v>EPA Project Summary
Volatile Organic Compound
Emission Projection Model
User's Manual (Version 1.8)
Mark S. Jennings and Thomas E. Emmel
This report is a user's manual and
reference guide for the Volatile Organic
Compound Emission Projection Model
(VOCM), Version 1.8. It highlights the
model's major features, explains the
basic operations of the model and
defines terms, describes how to install
and operate the model, explains how
to enter the input data required for the
model's operation, and explains how to
run a projection with a sample set of
user-specified input data.
Manual appendices contain samples
of the model's eight data file sheets,
along with descriptions of the fields on
each sheet; present samples of the
model's output and describes the
information thereon; and list the limits
that the model imposes on certain
operational parameters.
This Project Summary was devel-
oped by EPA's Air and Energy Engi-
neering Research Laboratory, Research
Triangle Park, NC. to announce key
findings of the research project that is
fully documented in a separate report
of the same title (see Project Report
ordering information at back).
Introduction
The Volatile Organic Compound Emis-
sion Projection Model (VOCM) is a
program that can model the effects of
growth, retirements, and regulations on
future emissions of volatile organic
compounds (VOCs). It forecasts by pro-
jecting the emissions existing in a
baseline year into the future, then
reducing the projected emissions to
levels required by the applicable emis-
sion constraint. Data files for a 1980
baseline year are provided with Version
1.8 of the VOCM model. VOCM can also
estimate the cost of controlling emis-
sions to the required levels. The program
is designed to be used on the IBM-PC
family of computers (and 100% compat-
ible computers).
VOCM is an extremely powerful and
versatile program. It:
• Can project emisisons for up to 70
years in the future (i.e., beyond the
base year of the emissions).
• Can project emissions from as many
as 1,000 industrial categories in up
to 50 geographic regions.
• Can project emissions from sources
existing in the base year and from new
and replaced processes that are built
during the projection period.
• Allows the user to specify growth
rates that are specific to a particular
industry in a particular region. The
growth rates can change with time.
• Allows the user to apportion growth
(new emissions) between attainment
and non-attainment areas.
• Can model the effect of up to 500
regulatory and other emission con-
straints. Each constraint can apply to
any combination of regions and indus-
trial categories. Each constraint can
apply to existing, new, and/or
replaced emissions.
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• Can determine the costs of controlling
the projected emissions to meet
applicable constraints.
• Can perform projections for all regions
and industrial categories in the data
base, or for only certain specified
ones.
• Can run projections for more than 1
year at a time.
• Allows the user to import data from
other files.
• Allows the user to specify that pro-
jection results for certain industrial
categories be aggregated and reported
under common identifiers.
To run VOCM, the following computer
facilities are needed:
• An IBM-PC with two floppy disk drives,
or an IBM-PC XT or AT with a hard
disk. A machine with a hard disk is
needed to efficiently run VOCM for
complex problems using large input
files similar to those supplied with the
model. Another feature that is not
required, but will improve perform-
ance is a numerics co-processor.
VOCM does not need a numerics co-
processor to operate, but it will run
faster if the computer has one.
• The amount of memory required
depends on the complexity of the
projections to be run. For simple
projections (i.e., those involving rel-
atively few constraints, cost tables,
regions, and industrial categories),
320K will usually be enough. For more
complex projections, 512K will gener-
ally be adequate. Extremely complex
projections may require the maximum
amount of memory that can be
accessed by programs running under
PC-DOS (640K).
• PC-DOS (or MS-DOS) Version 2.0 or
higher operating system.
• Blank floppy disks to store the data
files for floppy disk systems or to back
up the data files for hard disk systems.
• A printer to print the results. The
printer must be able to print up to 131
columns. VOCM automatically toggles
IBM/Epson dot-matrix printers into
their compressed printing models,
enabling the narrow carriage models
to print 131 columns.
• The VOCM program and support files.
The manual gives an overview of the
model's operation and its main features.
Definition of terms that the model user
should be familiar with are also pre-
sented. It also describes in detail the
procedures to be used to install and
operate the VOCM model. Alternative
methods of entering data into the model
are also described. A sample of user-
specified input data is given. Using the
sample data inputs, a VOCM model run
is shown.
Entering Input Data
Complete flexibility in selection of
input data.is a feature of the VOCM model
that makes it adaptable by the user for
analysis of VOC emission control strate-
gies. Before a projection can be run, the
user must provide VOCM with the data
it needs to function. This can be done
in one of two ways: by typing the data
into the data files using VOCM's data-
entry system (called the "Sheet Editor")
or by importing the data from an existing
file.
VOCM's Data-Entry System
for Keyboard Entered Data:
The Sheet Editor
One way to provide VOCM with the
data it needs is to type it directly into
the data files using VOCM's data-entry
system, the Sheet Editor. The Sheet
Editor provides for easy entry and
manipulation of the input data. It is based
on the concept that each data file is
organized as a stack of sheets. Each
sheet contains blanks in which the user
types information. The Sheet Editor
allows the user to: (1) enter information
into the sheets, (2) change information
in the sheets, (3) move through the
sheets, (4) sort sheets, and (5) print
sheets.
Importing Data
VOCM's Sheet Editor offers a simple and
straightforward way to enter data into
VOCM's emissions and growth data files.
However, the user may prefer to use
VOCM's import feature to enter data into
the data files. With this method, the user
first types the data into the ASCII
(American Standard Code for Information
Interchange) text files using a text editor.
The user then has VOCM "import" (or
transfer) the data from the text files into
VOCM's data files.
The import method of entering input
data has a couple of advantages:
• The input data can be entered faster.
A user who is proficient with a text
editor can probably type the input data
into the ASCII text files faster than the
same data can be typed into the data
file sheets using the Sheet Editor.
• A text editor allows large blocks of
data to be added and deleted with
ease. Using VOCM's Sheet Editor, the
data would need to be added and
deleted a sheet at a time.
• The VOCM data file to which data are
imported does not need to be empty.
If it already contains data, the data that
is imported are added to the end of
the file. Thus, the user can import data
from several different files into the
same VOC data file.
Running a Projection
Once the user has provided the VOCM
with the necessary input data, a projec-
tion can be run, generally involving two
steps:
1. Entering projection specifications
into the GLOBAL.DAT file sheet.
2. Selecting "Run Projection" from
the main menu.
These steps are explained in greater
detail in the VOCM User's Manual.
Screen displays simplify the model's
operation since the user has only to
choose between the options offered. The
user's manual will familiarize the user
with the options available and provide
intitial configuration instructions for
running VOCM on a personal computer.
For example, after the model is
installed with data bases and started, the
main menu guides the user in preparing
the run specifications. VOCM then
prompts the user for three items:
• The projection year(s).
• The ID(s)of the region(s) to be included
in the projection.
• The ID(s) of the industrial category(ies)
to be included in the projection.
In response to the prompt for the
projection year(s), the user can enter any
year from the base year to 70 years
beyond the base year. For example, if
1985 is specified (on the GLOBAL.DAT
file sheet) as the base year, the user could
enter any year from 1985 through 2055.
After the user responds to the prompt
for the industrial category ID(s), VOCM
reads all data files, then begins a
projection. VOCM begins to print the
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requested output as soon as it finishes
a projection. If the user requests projec-
tions for more than 1 year, VOCM prints
the output for 1 year before it begins the
projection for the next year. If the user
indicates that the output be sent to a disk
file (by entering a DOS filename in the
"Printer Specification" field of the
GLOBAL.DAT file sheet), the output is not
printed on the printer.
Description of VOCM's Output
VOCM's output can be grouped into
three categories:
• Intermediate projection results—This
is detailed output, intended primarily
for troubleshooting.
• Summary of input data—This output
lists the contents of all the data files;
it is useful for confirming that the
correct input data are being used.
• Final projection results—This output
provides the results of the emission
projection; it is the output that the user
generally wants to have generated for
any projection.
Intermediate Projection
Results
Intermediate output is intended to be
used as a debugging aid, giving insight
into how the final projection results were
computed. Because this output is
detailed and lengthy, its generation can
be quite time-consuming. Therefore, it is
recommended that this output be gener-
ated only for projections involving a few
sectors.
Three types of intermediate projection
results output can be obtained:
• Year-by-Year Projected Emissions
Table.
• Emission Constraint List.
• Emissions Segment Tables.
Final Projection Results
The third category of output consists
of the final projection results. The three
different types of final projection results
are:
• Regional Emission Projection Details.
• Regional Emission Projection Results.
• Overall Emission Projection Results.
Each of these is listed on the GLO-
BAL.DAT file sheet and can be obtained
or suppressed by entering a Y or N (yes
or no) character in the corresponding
field.
The Regional Emission Projection
Details output provides detailed sum-
mary information about each sector's
projection. A separate table is generated
for each region in the projection. Among
the information included in each table
are the overall growth rates for both
attainment and non-attainment areas,
the number of applicable constraints.
whether a relative or absolute analysis
was performed, and notes that warn of
potential problems and/or omissions in
the input data.
The Regional Emission Project Results
output consists of an emission summary
table for every region in the projection.
Each table lists the base year and
projection year emissions for each
industrial category in the region as well
as the total emissions from all industrial
categories in the region.
If a cost analysis has been performed,
this output also includes a cost summary
table for every region in the projection.
Each cost summary table lists the base
year and projection year control costs,
emission reduction, and cost effective-
ness for each industrial category in the
region as well as the absolute and
percent change between the base year
and projection year control costs. The
table also lists the total control cost,
emission reduction, and cost effective-
ness for all industrial categories in the
region.
M. Jennings is with Digital Kinetics, Inc.. La Honda. CA 94020, and T. Emmet
is with Radian Corp., Research Triangle Park, NC 27709.
Larry G. Jones is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
The complete report of paper copy and diskettes, entitled "The Volatile Organic
Compound Emission Projection Model User's Manual (Version 1.8J,"
(Paper Copy Order No. PB 88-157 896/AS; Cost: $14.95)
(Diskettes Order No. PB 88-157 888/AS; Cost: $100.00, this cost includes
the paper copy as well)
The above items will be available only from: (costs subject to change)
National Technical Information Service
5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield. VA 22161
Telephone: 703-487-4650
The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC27711
Summary of Input Data
The second category of output consists
of tables containing the input data. The
contents of the cost data file are printed
only when a cost analysis rs performed;
the contents of the aggregation data file
are printed only when the projection
results are aggregated.
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United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Center for Environmental Research
Information
Cincinnati OH 45268
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use $300
EPA/600/S8-87/059
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