United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Air and Energy Engineering
Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park NC 27711
Research and Development
EPA/600/S8-88/007 Mar. 1988
Project Summary
Industrial Combustion
Emissions Model (Version 6.0)
User's Manual
Tim Hogan
The full report is a user's manual for
the Industrial Combustion Emissions
(ICE) Model developed by the Environ-
mental Protection Agency (EPA) for
use by the National Acid Precipitation
Assessment Program in preparing
future assessments of industrial boiler
emissions. The manual includes a
summary of user options and software
characteristics, a description of the
input data files, and a description of the
procedures for operation of the ICE
Model. Proper formatting of files and
creation of job control language are
discussed.
The ICE Model projects for each state
the sulfur dioxide, sulfates, and nitro-
gen oxides emissions from fossil fuel
combustion in industrial boilers. Pro-
jections of emissions and costs of boiler
generation, including emission control
costs, are projected for the years 1985,
199O, 1995. 2000, 2010, 2020, and
2030. In arriving at an emissions
forecast, the model endogenously
estimates the mix of coal, oil, and gas
used in industrial boilers in response to
projected fuel prices, emission stand-
ards, and other factors affecting future
costs of industrial boiler operation.
This Project Summary was devel-
oped by EPA's Air and Energy Engi-
neering Research Laboratory, Research
Triangle Park, NC, to announce key
findings of the research project that is
fully documented in a separate report
of the same title (see Project Report
ordering information at back).
Introduction
The ICE Model was developed by
Engergy and Environmental Analysis,
Inc. (EEA) to support EPA's analysis of
acid deposition control alternatives. The
ICE Model projects industrial fossil-fuel-
fired boiler:
• Fuel mix (natural gas, distillate and
residual fuel oil, and coal)
• Air emissions (sulfur oxides, sulfates,
and nitrogen oxides)
• Costs of boiler operation including
emission controls by state for 1985,
1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, 2020, and
2030.
Model Operation
The ICE Model is a disaggregated
process engineering model. Models of
this type simulate the effects of specific
policies on technical alternatives for new
and existing equipment. The ICE Model
is designed to assess the impact of
several factors on industrial boiler fuel
choice decisions and air emissions,
including local and Federal air emissions
regulations, fuel tenance (O&M) costs of
firing alternative fuels or retrofitting
pollution control equipment.
The base year in Version 6.0 of the
ICE Model is 1980. Industrial boilers
existing in 1 980 are identified by size,
annual capacity utilitzation rate, fuel
type. State, industry group, and average
air emission rates. The existing boilers
may add or modify pollution control
equipment or retrofit to burn another fuel
type in response to proposed revisions
in air emissions regulations or fuel price
forecasts. Existing boilers are also retired
over time.
Model Inputs
The input groups used by the ICE Model
are shown in Figure 1. One major group
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of inputs are the exogenously specified
fossil fuel (i.e., coal, oil, and natural gas)
prices for each of the years and states
included in the projections. Also spec-
ified are the total fossil fuel industrial
boiler engergy demands by year, state,
and industrial sector. New boiler fuel
demand is determined by subtracting
existing boiler fuel demand (net of retired
boilers) from total fossil fuel demand.
The expected new source performance
standards (NSPS) for new boilers,in
future years are a.lso inputted. These
NSPS need not be the same for each year
analyzed. The NSPS supplement a data
base within the ICE Model of state
environmental regulations. Each new
boiler projected by ICE is sited in a State
and Air Quality Control Region (AQCR),
and the model determines the most
restrictive standard applicable to each
boiler.
User's Manual
The purpose of the ICE Model user's
manual is to describe how the input data
bases to the model can be altered by the
user, how to properly implement emis-
sion control alternatives within the
model, and how to obtain output. Specific
formats for data inputs and creation of
job control language (JCL) are discussed.
A complete run of the ICE Model for all
years (i.e., 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000,
2010,2020, and 2030) requires 15 batch
jobs or the linking of 15 jobs to one
another in proper order for submission
under one JCL file. Procedures for
constructing the JCL file, and other
necessary preparations to operate the
model, are described.
c
Industrial Boiler Fuel
Demand Forecast
(Air Emission
Standards
ICE Model
Industrial Fuel
Price Forecast
• Fuel Mix
• Emissions
• Costs
Figure 1. ICE Model user options.
Tim Hogan is with Energy and Environmental Analysis. Inc., Arlington. VA
22209.
Larry G. Jones is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
The complete report consists of paper copy and computer tape, entitled—
"Industrial Combustion Emissions Model (Version 6.0) User's Manual," Paper
Copy; (Order No. PB 88-172 234/AS; Cost $14.95)
"Industrial Combustion Emissions Model (ICE Model)," Computer Tape; (Order
No. PB 88-172 226/AS; C'OSt: $1.100.00; cost includes paper copy)
The above items will be available only from: (costs subject to change)
National Technical Information Service
5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, v'A 22161
Telephone: 703-487-4650
The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Envit
Information*.
Cincinnati OH45268
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use $300
EPA/600/S8-88/007
0000329
$
PS
PR0TSCTIOH AGENCY
ir U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1988—548-013/8'
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