United States
                    Environmental Protection
                    Agency
 Air and Energy Engineering
 Research Laboratory
 Research Triangle Park NC 27711
                    Research and Development
 EPA/600/S8-88/009  Apr. 1988
x°/EPA         Project  Summary
                    Industrial  Combustion
                    Emissions Model  (Version  6.0)
                    Software  Description
                   Tim Hogan
                     The Industrial Combustion Emissions
                   (ICE) Model is one of four simulation
                   models developed by the Environmen-
                   tal Protection Agency (EPA) for the
                   National Acid  Precipitation Program
                   (NAPAP). These four models project
                   national and state level  emissions of
                   sulfur dioxide (SOz), nitrogen oxides
                   (NOx), and volatile organic compounds
                   (VOCs) from all industrial and electric
                   utility sources in the U.S. This partic-
                   ular model, the ICE Model, projects to
                   the year 2030, SO2,  sulfate, and NOX
                   emissions and the costs of their control
                   from  industrial boiler fossil-fuel
                   combustion.
                     Version 6.0  of the ICE Model is
                   maintained on the IBM 3090 computer
                   system at the EPA National Computer
                   Center in Research Triangle Park, NC.
                   Requests to use or obtain the ICE
                   Model program should be directed to
                   the National Technical  Information
                   Service (see ordering information at
                   back).
                     This Project Summary was devel-
                   oped by EPA's Air and Energy  Engi-
                   neering Research Laboratory. Research
                   Triangle Park, NC, to announce key
                   findings of the research project that is
                   fully documented in a separate report
                   of the same title (see Project Report
                   ordering information at back).
                   Introduction

                    The Industrial Combustion Emissions
                   (ICE) Model was developed by Energy and
                   Environmental Analysis, Inc. (EEA)  to
                   support EPA's analysis of acid deposition
                   control alternatives. The ICE Model is one
 of a group of National Acid Precipitation
 Assessment Program sectoral emissions
 models. The ICE Model projects industrial
 fossil-fuel-fired boiler:

 • Fuel mix (natural gas, distillate and
   residual fuel oil, coal)

 • Air emissions (SO2, sulfates, NOX)
 • Costs

 by state for  1985, 1990, 1995, 2000,
 2010, 2020, and 2030. The current base
 year in the ICE Model (Version 3) is 1980.
  All ICE Model computer programs have
 been written in FORTRAN77. The ICE
 Model was developed on the IBM 3090
 Model 200 computer system at EPA's
 National Computer Center in Research
 Triangle Park, NC. All programs have
 been compiled using the FORTVCL utility
 on EPA's IBM system.
  The full report describes the structure
 of the ICE Model, Version 6.0, computer
 programs, the ICE Model  input  and
 output data  files, and major  internal
 variables and constants used in the ICE
 Model. In addition, it illustrates the use
 of comment statements in the ICE Model
 source code for one of the subroutines.
  The necessary Job Control Language
 to run the ICE Model is presented  in a
 separate report.

 Computer Programs
  The ICE  Model (Version 6.0) consists
 of three major computer programs  that
 are run in batches: CREATE6, FLCH6,
 and TABLE6. CREATE6 and FLCH6 are
 each  run for every output year. Since
there are  seven output years (1985,
 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, 2020,  and
2030), CREATE6 and FLCH6 must be run

-------
seven times in the proper sequence (see
Figure 1). After these 14 jobs (seven
CREATES and seven FLCH6) have been
executed, TABLES is run. However, it is
possible to run a subset of the years (e.g.,
1985, 1990,  1995,  and 2000),  but
intermediate run years cannot be skipped
(e.g., not running 1985).

CREATES
  CREATES projects the distribution  of
the major industrial boiler characteris-
tics.  CREATES reduces fossil fuel con-
sumption in existing industrial boilers by
an amount determined from the  retire-
ment rate of units specified in the input
files.  Similarly, it  increases  fuel con-
sumption in new industrial boilers by an
amount determined from new capacity
growth contained in the  input files. For
new units, it  assigns the  boiler size,
expected annual capacity utilization rate,
SIP,  previous coal  experience assump-
tion  (yes or no) and random variables
which are  used in FLCH6.  There are
about 500  lines  of  source code  in
CREATES.

FLCH6
  The FLCH6 program calculates the fuel
type,  air emissions rate, and costs for
each  new and existing industrial boiler
record processed by the CREATES pro-
gram. There  are about  4,700 lines  of
source code in FLCH6.

TABLE6
  The TABLES program prints aggregate
ICE  Model projections  for industrial
fossil-fuel-fired  boilers by  year  (1980
base  year,  1985,  1990, 1995,  2000,
2010, 2020, 2030), including:

• S02 emissions by state
• NOx emissions by state
• Sulfate emissions by state
• Total annualized costs by state
• Fuel demand by fuel  type and state
   for all industrial boilers
• Fuel demand for new industrial boilers
   by fuel type and state

• National fuel demand for new  indus-
   trial boilers by size, annual capacity
   utilization rate, and fuel type
• National number of  new industrial
   boilers by size group, previous coal
   experience (with or without), and fuel
   type.

The  TABLES  program contains almost
500 lines of source code.
                           I                      I
                           Create Projected Population^
                              of Industrial Boilers
                                  CREATES
 I Aggregate
 I Projections of
 I Emissions and
 \ Costs by State
                             Determine Fuel Type,
                            Emissions and Costs for
                             AII Industrial Boilers.
                                   FLCH6

       I
      ESIM
                                                                 Run Next
                                                                 Model Year
Generate Output Tables.
    For AII Years.
       TABLES
                                 Output Tables
                                 For All Years.
Figure 1.   ICE model jobs.
  Tim Hogan is with Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., Arlington, VA
    22209.
  Larry G. Jones is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
  The complete report, entitled "Industrial Combustion Emissions Model (Version
    6.0) Software Description." (Order No.  PB 88-191  176/AS; Cost: $14.95,
    subject to change) will be available only from:
          National Technical Information Service
          5285 Port Royal Road
          Springfield, VA 22161
          Telephone: 703-487-4650
  The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
          Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
          U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
          Research Triangle Park, NC 27711

-------

-------
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
                                    Center for Environmental Research
                                    Information
                                    Cincinnati OH 45268
                                                                                                   U.S.OFFICIALMAII
                                                                                                                 .25:;
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use $300

EPA/600/S8-88/009
                                                                                                   62St)i09 1
        CHICAGO
                                                                                 lirU.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1988—548-013

-------