United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Air and Energy
Engineering Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Research and Development
EPA/600/S8-88/071 June 1989
Project Summary
Advanced Utility Simulation
Model
Larry G. Jones
The Advanced Utility Simulation
Model (AUSM) is one of four
stationary source emission and con-
trol cost forecasting models
developed by EPA for the National
Acid Precipitation Assessment Pro-
gram. The AUSM projects air pollu-
tion emissions (SO2 and NOX),
generating technology types and
costs of operation, and combinations
of fuels and emission control
technologies to simultaneously meet
electric demand and emission con-
straints on a least cost basis for each
year through 2010. Thirteen electric
demand regions are simulated, and
output is provided for each of the
contiguous 48 states.
This document summarizes the 11
reports in this series, describing the
initial development of the AUSM by
the Universities Research Group on
Energy (URGE) and its continued
development by the Science Applica-
tions International Corporation (SAIC)
research team. The initial version of
AUSM, designated Version 1.0, was
delivered by URGE in November 1984
and August 1985. Further develop-
ment of the AUSM by the SAIC
between 1985 and 1988 resulted in
the development of Versions 2.0 and
3.0. Reports describing these revi-
sions by SAIC to the initial Version
1.0 of AUSM and a magnetic tape of
Version 3.0 are also part of this
series.
This Project Summary was
developed by EPA's Air and Energy
Engineering Research Laboratory,
Research Triangle Park, NC, to
announce key findings of the research
project that Is fully documented in 11
separate volumes (see Project Report
ordering at back).
Introduction
The National Acid Precipitation
Assessment Program (NAPAP) has
developed emission forecast models for
all U.S. sources of the acid deposition
precursors, sulfur dioxides (S02),
nitrogen oxides (NOX), and volatile
organic compounds (VOC). One of these
models, the Advanced Utility Simulation
Model (AUSM), projects S02 and NOX
emissions from electric power generating
stations operated by private utility
companies and by state, federal, or local
governmental authorities.
The Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) commissioned the the
Universities Research Group on Energy
(URGE) to construct a new state-of-the-
art computer simulation model that would
rely on nonproprietary data bases and
methodology. This model would be
released to the user community for
evaluating public policy proposals for
control of SOX and NOX emissions from
the nation's largest stationary source
category of these emissions.
The URGE research team consisted
of researchers from the University of
Illinois (the lead office), Carnegie-Mellon
University, and Cornell University. The
URGE research team delivered to EPA
the major portion of the program code
and documentation they had developed
in November 1984. An additional module,
the coal supply module, was delivered in
August 1985. This initial version of the
AUSM model was designated Version
1.0.
The URGE design for AUSM divided
the model into two major sections: the
State Level Model and the National Loop.
The National Loop, as it is now
configured, is designed to iterate
between a utility module, the Multi-Period
-------
Multi-State (MPMS) module, and the Coal
Supply Module (CSM) until an
equilibrium has been reached between
coal supply and demand by coal sulfur
and calorific value categories for each of
13 power supply regions. The power
supply regions used in AUSM are
approximately the same as the Electric
Reliability Council's power pools. Coal
prices are determined as a function of
coal demand, mining costs, depletion
effects of coal reserves, and rail or water
transportation costs. Coal demands are
determined as a function of electric
demand, minimization of the net present
value of life cycle generating costs
including fuel and emission control costs,
emission standards, and choices among
generating technologies for new capacity
additions (e.g., nuclear units, conven-
tional coal-fired steam generators, and
gas-fired combined cycle units).
After the National Loop develops a
strategic plan of future utility operations
(including capacity additions) and has
simultaneously projected coal prices for a
region, the information is passed to the
State Level Model for a more detailed
simulation utilizing unit specific
parameters. The State Model can also be
run in a stand-alone mode if the
information that usually is passed to it
from the National Loop can be supplied
by the user from another source.
Upon receipt, EPA initiated testing of
Version 1.0. This testing showed that the
computer code needed additional de-
velopment to produce a fully integrated
model. A research team consisting of the
Science Applications International
Corporation (SAIC) (the lead research
group), E.H. Pechan & Associates, and
Energy and Resource Consultants was
chosen to undertake this task under the
guidance of EPA's Air and Energy
Engineering Research Laboratory at
Research Triangle Park, N.C. The SAIC
research team completed the National
Loop, revised significant por-tions of the
State Level Model, integrated the
National Loop with the State Level Model,
and conducted a series of calibration end
sensitivity test runs. Several data bases
were also revised. These modifications
produced an oper-ational AUSM capable
of producing forecasts of emissions,
costs of emissions control, and electricity
rate impacts. This revised AUSM,
designated Version 2.0 in August 1987,
was constructed to operate in the
exogenous demand mode (i.e., the user
supplies a forecast of future electric
demand). Work is continuing on testing
and debugging of other portions of the
model's code including the endogenously
generated forecast of future electric
demand determined as a function of
electric rate/demand elasticity factors.
Recent modifications to the State Level
Model Financial Module have produced
AUSM Version 3.0.
Upon completion of Version 2.0 of
AUSM, which had been tested and shown
to produce results comparable to other
models currently in use by the user
community, EPA decided to publish
documentation for the latest version of
AUSM available (i.e., Version 3.0) and
release it for use. The following series of
reports is intended to accomplish this
objective. The approach taken to
document Version 3.0 is to supplement
rather than duplicate the original
documentation developed by URGE for
Version 1.0. Additional reports by the
SAIC research team describe the revi-
sions made to the AUSM methodology,
computer code, and data bases and the
results of sensitivity and model com-
parison testing. Much of the documen-
tation of Version 1.0 by the URGE
research team remains applicable to
Version 3.0
Seven reports prepared by the
URGE research team, with minimal
editorial changes by EPA, and four
reports by the SAIC research team have
been produced. A magnetic tape was
also prepared to release the model for
use.
URGE Research Team Reports
EPA Report 600/8-88-071 a. The
Advanced Utility Simulation Model,
Analytical Documentation, State Level
Model (Version 1.0).
This report describes the operation
of the State Level Model and the data
bases it uses. An overview of its
operation is given in Chapter 1, and a
description of the seven primary modules
is given in Chapters 2 through 8. The
extensive unit-specific electric generating
capacity inventory of technical and cost
parameters is described in Appendix A.
Appendices B and C describe the coal
reserves data base and coal cleaning
methodology used in AUSM.
EPA Report 600/8-88-07lb. The
Advanced Utility Simulation Model,
Program Documentation, State Level
Model (Version 1.0).
This report documents the formatting
of the computer code and provides
variable descriptions for the parameters
used in the Fortran code. Flow logic
diagrams and a listing of default
parameters are described. This report is
essential to the user preparing a moc
run. The user should review the list
default inputs in the parameter files pri
to exercising AUSM to analyze
scenario. The report is also essential to
programmer who wishes to trace tl
execution steps in the model.
EPA Report EPA-600/8-88-071C. Tl
Advanced Utility Simulation Mod*
Documentation of System Deslg
State Level Model (Version 1.0).
This report provides an overview
the URGE design of the AUSM moc
structure. Particular attention is given
the format of input/output files ai
various data bases that support operatii
of the State Level Model modules.
EPA Report EPA-600/8-88-071d. Tl
Advanced Utility Simulation Modt
The Multi-Period Multi-State Modu
Design Documentation (Version 1.0).
This report describes the initi
design of the utility planning module
the National Loop. This module, tl
Multi-Period Multi-State (MPMS) modu
was substantially revised and enhano
between Version 1.0 documented in tt
report and Version 3.0 documented in t
Description of the National Loop (Versi<
3.0) report in this series.
EPA Report EPA-600/8-88-071e. Tl
Advanced Utility Simulation Modt
Model Operations (Version 1.0).
This report provides instructions 1
operating Version 1.0 of AUSM ai
sorting output. Several routines f
producing specific reports are describe
Parameter switches for executing a r
are also described. To operate Versi
3.0, the version being released by EF
review the updated instructions in t
Advanced Utility Simulation Model Use
Guide (Version 3.0) in this series.
EPA Report EPA-600/8-88-071f. Tl
Advanced Utility Simulation Modi
Data Base Maintenance (Version 1.0}
This report describes the permane
data base supporting the State Le*
Model modules that must be periodic
updated to keep AUSM current. T
material in this report is oriented tow;
programmers and others who will
asked to operate and update the moc
Each chapter in the report (coveri
demand, capacity planning, and finaru
and coal price data) provides informat
on the sources of primary data, crite
for updating the AUSM data base, £
explanations of how input files ;
generated from initial data sources.
-------
€PA Report EPA-600/8-88-071g. The
Advanced Utility Simulation Model,
Energy and Employment Impacts
Module (Version 1.0).
This report describes the method-
ology for computing the energy and
employment impacts directly and
indirectly attributable to electric utility
operations. The report also documents
the program code. Impacts are summed
for related support industries (e.g.,
mining, transportation, and construction)
as well as for electric utility operations.
SAIC Research Team Reports
EPA Report EPA-600/8-88-071h. The
Advanced Utility Simulation Model,
Description of the National Loop
(Version 3.0).
This report describes work by the
SAIC project team to complete and test
the National Loop of the AUSM. The
reformulation of the MPMS module is
described. Methodologies employed in
operating the National Loop and in
achieving convergence of the solution are
discussed. Relatively minor revisions to
the Coal Supply module are documented.
A new Coal Market Equilibrium module
and files constructed to pass information
from the National Loop to the State Level
Model are also described.
EPA Report EPA-600/8-88-07H. The
Advanced Utility Simulation Model,
Description of Modifications to the
State Level Model (Version 3.0).
This report describes work by the
SAIC project team in testing, evaluating,
and revising each State Level Model
module. Major changes were
implemented in the Dispatch and Finance
modules. Less significant, but important,
changes were made to the remaining
modules.
EPA Report EPA-600/a-88-071j. The
Advanced Utility Simulation Model
User's Guide (Version 3.0).
This report describes the procedures
for operating the revised AUSM model.
Directions for operating the fully
integrated AUSM model and the State
Level Model (in a stand-alone mode) are
provided. Detailed instructions on
preparation of the model for run
scenarios are given. Also included are
instructions on operating an improved
report writer and information on
alternative reports that can be generated.
EPA Report EPA-$00/8-88-071k. The
Advanced Utility Simulation Model,
Report of Sensitivity Testing,
Calibration, and Model Output
Comparisons (Version 3.0).
This report summarizes the tests
conducted with the fully integrated AUSM
model (i.e., the runs of the National Loop
and those of the State Level Model
utilizing information supplied by the
National Loop).
Extensive testing to determine both
appropriate calibration constraints and
the sensitivity of the model to alternative
input parameters, and to compare the
AUSM model's output with ICF, Inc.'s
Coal and Electric Utilities Model are
described. Special attention is given to
identifying model parameters that the
testing has shown to require attention by
the user for particular scenarios.
-------
Larry G. Jones is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
The complete report, consists of the following volumes: "Advanced Utility
Simulation Model, Analytical Documentation (Version 1.0)," Order No. PB
89-161 7721 AS; Cost: $49.95; "Program Documentation, State Level Model
(Version 1.0)," Order No. PB 89-166 631/AS; Cost: $55.95;
"Documentation of System Design, State Level Model (Version 1.0)" Order
No. PB 89-101 2081 AS; Cost: $19.95; "The Multi-period Multi-state Module
Design Documentation (Version 1.0), Order No. PB 89-204 268/AS; Cost:
$12.95; "Model Operations (Version 1.0)," Order No. PB 89-118 7491 AS;
Cost: $21.95; "Data Base Maintenance (Version 1.0)," Order No. PB 89-
204 2761 AS; Cost: $14.95; "Energy and Employment Impacts Module
(Version 1.0)," Order No. PB 89-126 569/AS; Cost: $13.95; "Description of
the National Loop (Version 3.0)," Order No. PB 89-151 468/AS; Cost:
$15.95; "Description of Modifications to the State Level Model (Version
3.0)," Order No. PB 89-161 780/AS; Cost: $15.95; "User's Guide (Version
3.0)," Order No. PB 89-126 5771 AS; Cost: $13.95; "Report of Sensitivity
Testing, Calibration, and Model Output Comparisons (Version 3.0)," Order
No. PB 89-166 649/AS; Cost: $21.95; "A Mathematical Model of Electric
Utility Company Operations, Version 3.0" Order No. PB 89-175 608/AS;
Cost for Magnetic Tape (including paper copy) $825.00; (all costs subject
to change) will be available only from:
National Technical Information Service
5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, VA 22161
Telephone: 703-487-4650
The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Center for Environmental Research
Information
Cincinnati OH 45268
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use $300
EPA/600/S8-88/071
CHICAGO
------- |