United States
 Environmental Protection
 Agency       	
Air and Energy
Engineering Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
 Research and Development
EPA/600/S8-88/071 June 1989
  Project  Summary
  Advanced  Utility Simulation
  Model
  Larry G. Jones
   The Advanced Utility Simulation
Model  (AUSM)  is  one  of  four
stationary source emission and con-
trol  cost  forecasting  models
developed by EPA for the National
Acid  Precipitation Assessment Pro-
gram. The AUSM projects  air pollu-
tion  emissions (SO2  and  NOX),
generating technology  types and
costs of operation, and combinations
of  fuels  and  emission control
technologies to simultaneously meet
electric demand and emission con-
straints on a least cost basis for each
year through 2010. Thirteen electric
demand regions are  simulated, and
output is provided for each  of the
contiguous 48 states.
   This document summarizes the 11
reports in this series, describing the
initial development of the  AUSM  by
the Universities Research Group  on
Energy  (URGE)  and  its continued
development by the Science Applica-
tions International Corporation (SAIC)
research team. The initial version of
AUSM, designated Version 1.0, was
delivered by URGE in  November 1984
and August  1985. Further develop-
ment of the AUSM by  the  SAIC
between  1985 and  1988  resulted  in
the development of Versions 2.0 and
3.0. Reports  describing  these  revi-
sions by SAIC to the initial Version
1.0 of AUSM and a magnetic tape of
Version 3.0  are also part of this
series.
    This  Project  Summary  was
developed by EPA's  Air and  Energy
Engineering Research Laboratory,
Research Triangle  Park,  NC,  to
announce key findings of the research
project that Is fully documented  in  11
separate volumes (see Project Report
ordering at back).
Introduction

    The National  Acid  Precipitation
Assessment  Program  (NAPAP)  has
developed emission forecast models for
all U.S. sources  of the  acid deposition
precursors,  sulfur dioxides (S02),
nitrogen oxides (NOX), and volatile
organic compounds (VOC). One of these
models, the Advanced Utility Simulation
Model (AUSM),  projects S02  and  NOX
emissions from electric power generating
stations operated  by  private  utility
companies and by state,  federal, or local
governmental authorities.
    The Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) commissioned the the
Universities Research Group on Energy
(URGE) to construct a new state-of-the-
art computer simulation model that would
rely on nonproprietary data bases  and
methodology.  This model would  be
released to  the  user  community for
evaluating public policy  proposals for
control of SOX and  NOX  emissions from
the nation's largest stationary source
category of these emissions.
    The URGE research  team  consisted
of researchers from the University of
Illinois (the lead office), Carnegie-Mellon
University, and Cornell University.  The
URGE research team delivered to EPA
the major portion of the  program code
and documentation  they  had  developed
in November 1984. An additional module,
the coal supply module, was delivered in
August 1985. This initial version  of the
AUSM model  was  designated Version
1.0.
    The URGE design for AUSM divided
the model into two major sections: the
State Level Model and the National Loop.
The  National Loop,  as it  is  now
configured,  is  designed  to iterate
between a utility module, the Multi-Period

-------
Multi-State (MPMS) module, and the Coal
Supply  Module  (CSM)  until  an
equilibrium  has been  reached  between
coal supply and  demand  by coal  sulfur
and calorific value categories for each of
13  power supply  regions.  The  power
supply  regions  used in  AUSM are
approximately the same as the Electric
Reliability Council's power  pools. Coal
prices are determined as a  function of
coal demand,  mining costs, depletion
effects of coal reserves, and rail or water
transportation  costs. Coal demands are
determined as a  function  of electric
demand,  minimization of the net present
value of life  cycle  generating costs
including fuel and emission control costs,
emission  standards, and choices among
generating technologies for new capacity
additions (e.g., nuclear  units,  conven-
tional coal-fired steam  generators, and
gas-fired combined  cycle units).
    After the  National Loop develops a
strategic  plan  of  future utility operations
(including capacity additions)  and has
simultaneously projected coal prices for a
region, the  information is  passed to the
State Level Model  for  a  more detailed
simulation  utilizing  unit  specific
parameters. The State Model can also be
run  in  a stand-alone  mode if the
information  that usually is passed to it
from the  National Loop can  be supplied
by the user from another source.
    Upon receipt, EPA initiated testing of
Version 1.0. This  testing showed that the
computer code needed additional de-
velopment to  produce a fully integrated
model. A research team consisting of the
Science Applications  International
Corporation (SAIC) (the lead  research
group), E.H. Pechan  & Associates, and
Energy and Resource Consultants was
chosen to undertake this task under the
guidance of   EPA's  Air and  Energy
Engineering  Research  Laboratory at
Research Triangle  Park, N.C. The SAIC
research  team completed the  National
Loop, revised  significant por-tions of the
State Level   Model,  integrated the
National Loop  with the State Level Model,
and conducted a series of calibration end
sensitivity test runs. Several  data bases
were also revised. These modifications
produced an oper-ational AUSM capable
of producing  forecasts of emissions,
costs of emissions control, and electricity
rate impacts.  This  revised  AUSM,
designated  Version 2.0 in August  1987,
was constructed  to  operate in the
exogenous  demand mode (i.e., the user
supplies a forecast  of future  electric
demand). Work is  continuing on testing
and  debugging of  other portions of the
model's code including the endogenously
generated forecast of future electric
demand  determined as  a function  of
electric  rate/demand elasticity factors.
Recent modifications to the State  Level
Model Financial Module  have produced
AUSM Version 3.0.
    Upon  completion of  Version  2.0  of
AUSM, which had been tested and shown
to produce results  comparable to  other
models  currently  in use  by the user
community,  EPA  decided to publish
documentation  for the latest version  of
AUSM available (i.e., Version 3.0) and
release it for use. The following series of
reports is intended  to accomplish this
objective. The approach taken  to
document Version  3.0  is to supplement
rather  than  duplicate  the  original
documentation  developed by URGE  for
Version  1.0.  Additional reports by the
SAIC research team describe the revi-
sions made to the  AUSM  methodology,
computer code, and data bases and the
results  of sensitivity and  model  com-
parison testing. Much  of  the documen-
tation of  Version  1.0 by the URGE
research team  remains  applicable to
Version 3.0
    Seven reports prepared by the
URGE  research team,   with  minimal
editorial  changes  by EPA,  and four
reports by the SAIC research team have
been produced. A  magnetic tape was
also  prepared to release the model  for
use.

URGE Research Team Reports

EPA  Report  600/8-88-071 a.  The
Advanced Utility  Simulation Model,
Analytical Documentation, State  Level
Model (Version 1.0).
    This  report describes  the operation
of the State Level  Model  and  the data
bases  it  uses. An overview of  its
operation is  given in Chapter 1,  and a
description of the seven primary modules
is given  in Chapters 2 through 8. The
extensive unit-specific electric generating
capacity inventory of technical  and cost
parameters is described  in  Appendix  A.
Appendices B  and  C describe the coal
reserves  data  base and  coal  cleaning
methodology used in AUSM.

EPA  Report  600/8-88-07lb.  The
Advanced Utility  Simulation Model,
Program  Documentation,  State  Level
Model (Version 1.0).
    This report documents the formatting
of the computer  code  and provides
variable  descriptions for  the parameters
used in the Fortran code.  Flow  logic
diagrams and a   listing of default
parameters are  described.  This report is
essential to the user preparing a moc
run.  The user should review  the list
default inputs in the parameter files pri
to exercising  AUSM  to analyze
scenario. The report is also essential to
programmer  who wishes  to  trace tl
execution steps in the model.

EPA Report EPA-600/8-88-071C.  Tl
Advanced Utility Simulation  Mod*
Documentation  of System Deslg
State Level Model (Version 1.0).
    This report provides an overview
the URGE design of the  AUSM moc
structure. Particular  attention is given
the format of  input/output  files  ai
various data bases that support operatii
of the State Level Model modules.

EPA Report EPA-600/8-88-071d.  Tl
Advanced Utility Simulation  Modt
The  Multi-Period Multi-State Modu
Design Documentation (Version 1.0).
    This report  describes the initi
design  of  the utility planning  module
the National  Loop.  This  module,  tl
Multi-Period Multi-State (MPMS)  modu
was  substantially  revised  and enhano
between Version 1.0 documented in tt
report and Version 3.0 documented in t
Description of the National  Loop (Versi<
3.0) report in this series.

EPA Report EPA-600/8-88-071e.  Tl
Advanced Utility Simulation  Modt
Model Operations (Version 1.0).
    This report provides instructions  1
operating  Version  1.0 of  AUSM  ai
sorting  output.   Several  routines f
producing specific reports are  describe
Parameter switches  for executing a r
are also described. To operate Versi
3.0, the version being released by  EF
review  the updated  instructions in t
Advanced Utility Simulation Model Use
Guide (Version 3.0) in this series.

EPA Report EPA-600/8-88-071f.  Tl
Advanced Utility Simulation  Modi
Data Base Maintenance (Version 1.0}
    This report describes the  permane
data base supporting the State Le*
Model modules that must be periodic
updated to  keep AUSM  current.  T
material in this report is oriented tow;
programmers  and  others  who will
asked to operate  and update  the moc
Each chapter in the report (coveri
demand, capacity planning, and finaru
and coal price data) provides  informat
on the sources of primary data, crite
for updating  the AUSM  data  base, £
explanations  of  how input files ;
generated from initial data sources.

-------
 €PA  Report  EPA-600/8-88-071g.  The
Advanced Utility  Simulation Model,
Energy  and  Employment  Impacts
Module (Version 1.0).

    This report describes  the  method-
ology  for computing  the  energy  and
employment  impacts  directly  and
indirectly  attributable to electric utility
operations. The report also documents
the program code.  Impacts are summed
for related support  industries (e.g.,
mining, transportation,  and construction)
as well as for electric utility operations.
SAIC Research Team Reports

EPA Report EPA-600/8-88-071h. The
Advanced  Utility  Simulation Model,
Description of  the National Loop
(Version 3.0).
    This report describes  work  by the
SAIC project team  to complete and test
the National Loop of the AUSM. The
reformulation of the  MPMS  module is
described.  Methodologies  employed in
operating  the National  Loop and in
achieving convergence of the solution are
discussed.  Relatively minor revisions to
the Coal Supply module are documented.
A new  Coal Market Equilibrium module
and files constructed to pass  information
from the National Loop to the  State Level
Model are also described.

EPA Report EPA-600/8-88-07H. The
Advanced  Utility  Simulation Model,
Description of Modifications to  the
State Level Model (Version 3.0).
    This report describes  work by the
SAIC project team  in testing, evaluating,
and revising each  State  Level  Model
module.   Major  changes   were
implemented in the  Dispatch and Finance
modules. Less  significant, but important,
changes were  made to  the  remaining
modules.

EPA Report EPA-600/a-88-071j. The
Advanced  Utility  Simulation  Model
User's Guide (Version 3.0).
    This report describes the procedures
for operating the revised AUSM model.
Directions  for  operating  the  fully
integrated  AUSM model  and the State
Level Model (in a stand-alone mode) are
provided.  Detailed instructions on
preparation of  the model for run
scenarios are given. Also  included are
instructions  on operating an improved
report writer  and  information  on
alternative reports that can be generated.
EPA Report EPA-$00/8-88-071k.  The
Advanced  Utility Simulation Model,
Report  of Sensitivity  Testing,
Calibration,  and Model  Output
Comparisons (Version 3.0).

    This  report summarizes  the tests
conducted with the fully integrated AUSM
model (i.e., the runs of the National Loop
and  those  of  the  State  Level Model
utilizing information  supplied by  the
National Loop).
    Extensive testing to determine both
appropriate  calibration constraints and
the sensitivity of the  model to alternative
input parameters,  and to  compare  the
AUSM  model's  output with  ICF,  Inc.'s
Coal and  Electric  Utilities  Model  are
described. Special attention  is  given to
identifying model  parameters  that  the
testing  has shown to require  attention  by
the user for particular scenarios.

-------
  Larry G. Jones  is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
  The  complete report,  consists  of  the  following volumes:  "Advanced Utility
        Simulation Model, Analytical Documentation (Version 1.0)," Order No. PB
        89-161  7721 AS; Cost: $49.95;  "Program Documentation, State Level Model
        (Version  1.0),"  Order   No.  PB  89-166 631/AS;  Cost:  $55.95;
        "Documentation of System Design, State Level Model (Version 1.0)" Order
        No. PB 89-101 2081 AS; Cost: $19.95; "The Multi-period Multi-state Module
        Design Documentation (Version 1.0), Order No. PB 89-204 268/AS; Cost:
        $12.95; "Model Operations (Version  1.0),"  Order No. PB 89-118 7491 AS;
        Cost: $21.95;  "Data Base Maintenance (Version  1.0),"  Order No. PB 89-
        204 2761 AS; Cost: $14.95; "Energy and  Employment  Impacts  Module
        (Version 1.0)," Order No. PB 89-126  569/AS; Cost: $13.95; "Description of
        the National Loop  (Version 3.0)," Order No. PB 89-151 468/AS; Cost:
        $15.95; "Description of Modifications to the State Level Model (Version
        3.0)," Order No. PB 89-161 780/AS;  Cost: $15.95;  "User's Guide (Version
        3.0)," Order No. PB 89-126 5771 AS; Cost: $13.95; "Report of Sensitivity
        Testing, Calibration, and Model Output Comparisons (Version 3.0)," Order
        No. PB 89-166 649/AS; Cost: $21.95; "A Mathematical Model of Electric
        Utility Company Operations, Version 3.0" Order No. PB 89-175 608/AS;
        Cost for Magnetic  Tape (including paper copy) $825.00; (all costs subject
        to change) will be available  only from:
           National Technical Information Service
           5285 Port Royal Road
           Springfield, VA 22161
           Telephone: 703-487-4650
  The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
           Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
           U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
           Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
                              Center for Environmental Research
                              Information
                              Cincinnati OH 45268
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use $300

EPA/600/S8-88/071
           CHICAGO

-------