United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Air and Energy Engineering
Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Research and Development
EPA/600/S8-88/077 July 1988
vvEPA Project Summary
Description of the Industrial
Combustion Emissions Model
(Version 6.0)
T. Hogan
The Industrial Combustion
Emissions (ICE) Model is one of a
number of National Acid Precipitation
Assessment Program emission
forecasting models. The ICE Model
projects air pollution emissions
(sulfur dioxide, sulfates.and nitrogen
oxides), costs,and fuel mix for
industrial fossil-fuel-fired (natural
gas, distillate and residual fuel
oil.and coal) boilers by state and
year (1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010,
2020, and 2030).
This document describes the
model methodology, key
assumptions, data sources, and user
options for Version B of the ICE
Model. Future ICE Model runs may
include model modifications
recommended by EPA.
This Project Summary was
developed by EPA's Air and Energy
Engineering Research Laboratory.
Research Triangle Park. NC. to
announce key findings of the
research project that is fully
documented in a separate report of
the same title (see Project Report
ordering information at back).
Introduction
The Industrial Combustion Emissions
(ICE) Model is a highly disaggregated
and detailed process engineering model
covering the consumption of fossil fuels
(coal, distillate and residual fuel oil, and
natural gas) in industrial boilers. It was
developed to help decision makers
assess a wide range of energy,
environmental, and cost impacts
resulting from policy alternatives.
The basic approach in the ICE Model
is to project the characteristics of the
industrial boiler population and to make a
fuel choice decision for each group of
boilers. The major industrial boiler
characteristics include:
• New or existing unit.
• Size (MW, 106 Btu/hr heat unit)
• Average annual capacity utilization
rate.*
• Local and Federal sulfur dioxide
(SOa), particulate matter (PM), and
nitrogen oxide (NOX) emissions
standards.
Key input assumptions include:
• Base year (currently 1980) boiler
population characteristics.
• Projected fuel prices and total
industrial boiler fossil fuel demand.
• Boiler and pollution control
equipment cost estimates.
• Local and Federal air emissions
regulations.
Major model outputs include:
• Projected emissions of SO2,
sulfates. and NOX
• Projected industrial boiler fossil fuel
demand by fuel type (coal, distillate
and residual fuel oil, and natural
gas).
• Projected total capital and annual
operating, maintenance, and fuel
expenses.
"Expected annual fuel consumption/(design firing
rate times 8,760 per year)
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Model outputs are available by State
(excluding Alaska and Hawaii) and year
(1980 baseline, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000,
2010, 2020, and 2030).
Approach
Inputs to the ICE Model are
determined from an analysis of
macroeconomic factors. Analysis of
overall economic activity identifies critical
trends in macroeconomic variables.
Macroeconomic models thus provide key
economic "drivers" of energy demand,
such as industrial production growth.
These drivers then serve as key inputs to
a model of the U,S. energy markets to
determine energy demand in the
energy"using sectors of the economy.
The energy markets essentially involve
the interplay of demand and supply for
alternative sources of energy (e.g., oil,
coal), resulting in the determination of
the price and level of use of various
energy forms.
In turn, the energy market trends
provide the costs of energy back to the
macroeconomic framework, through such
variables as the Consumer Price Index
and costs of energy inputs to the
industrial sectors. These energy cost
impacts can, in turn, alter macro-
economic trends. For example, world oil
price inflation (deflation) results in major
cost increases (decreases) which in turn
affect industrial production growth,
consumer behavior.and real income.
Industrial energy demand is an
important element of the energy market.
This effort focused separately on
industrial energy demand because:
• The ICE Model has not been used
as a portion of a "general equi-
librium" system which simul-
taneously reflects the interactions
between the economy and energy
markets.
• The ICE Model is not a complete
energy demand model.
Logically, an industrial demand model
addresses the following issues:
• The relationship between industrial
production and the overall level of
the energy inputs required to
perform various industrial process
operations.
• Energy demand in all industrial
uses (e.g., boilers, process heat,
feedstock),
• The mix of energy sources
selected to provide the full range of
energy services.
The major (exogenous) inputs to a
complete energy demand model are
industrial production growth trends and
the prices of various forms of energy.
The ICE Model covers only a portion
of industrial energy demand. Specifically,
it does not address in any detail:
• The relationship between overall
industrial production and energy
demand (e.g., conservation,
process efficiency trends).
• The demand for energy in non-
boiler industrial uses.
• The demand for energy forms
other than conventional fossil fuels
(fuel oil, natural gas, coal).
Projections of total fossil fuel demand
in industrial boilers by state and year and
forecasts of industrial fuel prices by
Federal region and year are key ICE
Model input parameters. The Energy and
Environmental Systems Division of
Argonne National Laboratory has
developed alternative ICE Model input
scenarios. These ICE Model input
assumptions are based on DOE National
Energy Policy Plan projections.
A predecessor model, the Industrial
Fuel Choice Analysis Model (IFCAM),
provided the initial framework for
development of the ICE Model. Key
improvements incorporated in the ICE
Model include the capability to:
• Update base year data to 1980.
• Generate projections by state
(excluding Alaska and Hawaii) out
to the year 2030.
• Provide pollution control retrofit
options for existing industrial coal-
fired boilers.
• Select fuel types in new industrial
boilers using statistical decision
criteria based on a sample of
recent sales data.
Many of the remaining key assumptions
in the ICE Model, which are presented in
this report, were developed by EPA for
IFCAM. IFCAM has been used by EPA to
project the environmental, cost, and
energy impacts of alternative New
Source Performance Standards (NSPS)
for industrial boilers.
Model Capabilities
The ICE Model is a process
engineering/simple accounting industrial
boiler fuel choice model. This modeling
technique simulates the effects of
specific policies on technical alternatives
by applying direct engineering
information at a disaggregated level.
The ICE Model structure had been
designed to evaluate alternative fuel
price projections, government energy
and environmental policy proposals, the
costs associated with firing alternat^
fuels, and other key model parameters
The fuel choice decision criterioi
includes a comparison of after-tax
discounted cash flows. Therefore,
variety of proposed tax credits am
changes in the tax treatment of capiU
that provide incentives to invest in coa
related equipment can be analyzed usin
the model.
Environmental regulatory policies ca
affect fuel choice by altering the relativ
costs of burning alternative fuels
Regulations relating to PM, S02, an
NOX emissions from fuel-burnin
sources include state and Iocs
regulations and Federal NSPS.
The ICE Model is capable of modelin
alternative industrial boiler NSPS. Th
ICE Model can simulate the use <
various types of flue gas desulfurizatic
(FGD) systems (some with combine
SOg/PM emissions control), various typ€
of post-combustion PM emissior
control, and two types of combustic
modifications to control NOX emissions.
Several types of alternative NSP
specifications of SOg emissions contr
for new industrial residual fuel oil <
coal-fired boilers can be analyzed. F
example, the regulation can vary t
boiler size and can be specified as:
* A ceiling emission rate (Ib
pollutant/106 Btu of fuel burned).
• A recommended percentac
removal (e.g., 90% removal
uncontrolled SOg emissions).
• A recommended percentac
removal and a "floor" emissio
rate (e.g., 90% removal but i
lower than 258 ng/J [0.6 lb/1
Btu]).
• A minimum percentage removal
be applied if the recommend
percentage removal results
controlled emission rates low
than the floor.
The ICE Model can simulate t
impact of alternative fuel pri
projections on industrial fuel m
Regional fuel priced for distillate a
residual fuel oil (four sulfur classe
natural gas, and coal (up to 11 types) i
considered in the model.
The fuel choice decision is sensitive
non-fuel costs of burning alternate fu«
While the best available cost data
used, the model can evaluate the imp
of any alternative cost estimates.
The ICE Model's fuel choice decisk
are a function of technical, economic, i
regulatory factors. The ICE Moi
evaluates fuel switching in exist
boilers and fuel type selection in n
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lilers. For existing boilers, fuel choice is
determined by comparing the after-tax
net present value of retrofit or fuel
conversion capital costs and O&M and
fuel expenses. For new units, fuel choice
is determined by comparing boiler and
pollution control capital, O&M, and fuel
costs, as well as other factors.
The ICE Model selects from a wide
range of fuel quality options (multiple
residual fuel oil and coal types) and
alternative pollution control strategies.
Table 1 lists alternative industrial boiler
pollution control technologies in the ICE
Model.
Table 1. Industrial Boiler Pollution
Control Equipment Options in
the ICE Model
Pollutant Technology
SOz Flue gas desulfurization
Dual alkali
Lime spray drying*
Sodium once-through
PM Single mechanical
collector
Dual mechanical collector
Side stream separator
Electrostatic precipitator
Fabric filter
NOX Combustion modification
Low excess air
Staged combustion air
"Combined SO^PM emissions control
system; includes a fabric filter.
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T. Hogan is with Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., Arlington, VA 22209.
Larry 6. Jones is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
The complete report, entitled "Description of the Industrial Combustion
Emissions Model (Version 6.0)," (Order No. PB 88-212 287''AS; Cost: $19.95,
subject to change) will be available only from:
National Technical Information Service
5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, VA 22161
Telephone: 703-487-4650
The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC27711
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Center for Environmental Research
Information
Cincinnati OH 45268
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use $300
EPA/600/S8-88/077
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