United States
                   Environmental Protection
                   Agency
Air and Energy Engineering
Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
                   Research and Development
EPA/600/S8-88/077  July 1988
vvEPA          Project  Summary
                    Description  of  the  Industrial
                    Combustion Emissions Model
                    (Version  6.0)
                    T. Hogan
                     The  Industrial Combustion
                   Emissions (ICE) Model is one of  a
                   number of National Acid Precipitation
                   Assessment  Program  emission
                   forecasting models.  The ICE Model
                   projects air pollution  emissions
                   (sulfur dioxide, sulfates.and nitrogen
                   oxides), costs,and fuel  mix for
                   industrial fossil-fuel-fired  (natural
                   gas,  distillate and residual fuel
                   oil.and  coal) boilers by state and
                   year  (1985, 1990, 1995,  2000, 2010,
                   2020, and 2030).
                     This  document describes the
                   model   methodology,   key
                   assumptions, data sources,  and user
                   options for  Version B  of  the ICE
                   Model.  Future ICE Model runs may
                   include  model  modifications
                   recommended by EPA.
                     This  Project Summary  was
                   developed by EPA's Air  and Energy
                   Engineering Research  Laboratory.
                   Research Triangle Park.  NC.  to
                   announce  key findings  of the
                   research project  that  is  fully
                   documented  in a separate  report of
                   the same title (see Project Report
                   ordering information at back).

                   Introduction
                     The Industrial Combustion  Emissions
                   (ICE)  Model is  a highly  disaggregated
                   and detailed process  engineering model
                   covering the consumption of fossil fuels
                   (coal, distillate and residual fuel oil, and
                   natural gas) in industrial boilers. It was
                   developed to help  decision makers
                   assess  a wide  range  of  energy,
                   environmental, and cost  impacts
                   resulting from  policy alternatives.
   The basic approach in the ICE Model
 is to project the  characteristics  of the
 industrial boiler population and to make a
 fuel choice decision for each group of
 boilers.   The  major industrial  boiler
 characteristics include:
   •  New or existing unit.
   •  Size (MW, 106 Btu/hr heat unit)
   •  Average annual  capacity utilization
     rate.*
   •  Local and Federal sulfur dioxide
     (SOa), particulate matter (PM), and
     nitrogen oxide  (NOX)  emissions
     standards.

 Key input assumptions include:
   •  Base year (currently 1980) boiler
     population characteristics.
   •  Projected fuel  prices and total
     industrial boiler fossil fuel demand.
   •  Boiler  and pollution control
     equipment cost estimates.
   •  Local and Federal air emissions
     regulations.

 Major model outputs include:
   •  Projected  emissions of SO2,
     sulfates. and NOX

   •  Projected industrial boiler fossil fuel
     demand by fuel type (coal, distillate
     and residual fuel oil,  and  natural
     gas).
   •  Projected total capital and  annual
     operating, maintenance, and  fuel
     expenses.
 "Expected annual fuel consumption/(design firing
 rate times 8,760 per year)

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Model  outputs are available  by State
(excluding Alaska and Hawaii) and year
(1980 baseline, 1985, 1990,  1995, 2000,
2010, 2020, and 2030).

Approach
   Inputs  to  the  ICE  Model  are
determined  from  an  analysis  of
macroeconomic  factors.  Analysis of
overall economic activity identifies critical
trends in  macroeconomic  variables.
Macroeconomic models thus provide key
economic  "drivers" of energy demand,
such as  industrial production  growth.
These drivers then serve as key inputs to
a model of the U,S.  energy markets to
determine energy  demand  in  the
energy"using  sectors of the economy.
The  energy markets  essentially  involve
the interplay of demand  and supply for
alternative sources of energy (e.g., oil,
coal), resulting in the determination of
the price  and  level of use of  various
energy forms.
   In turn, the energy  market  trends
provide the costs of energy back to the
macroeconomic framework, through such
variables  as the  Consumer  Price Index
and  costs of energy  inputs  to  the
industrial   sectors.  These energy cost
impacts  can, in  turn,  alter  macro-
economic  trends. For example, world oil
price inflation  (deflation) results in major
cost increases  (decreases) which in turn
affect  industrial  production growth,
consumer behavior.and real income.
   Industrial  energy demand   is an
important element of the  energy  market.
This  effort focused separately on
industrial  energy demand because:
   • The  ICE Model  has not been used
     as a portion  of a  "general equi-
     librium"  system  which  simul-
     taneously reflects the interactions
     between the economy and energy
     markets.
   • The  ICE  Model is not a complete
     energy demand model.

Logically,  an  industrial demand  model
addresses the following issues:
   • The  relationship between industrial
     production and  the overall  level of
     the  energy  inputs  required to
     perform  various industrial  process
     operations.
   • Energy  demand in all  industrial
     uses (e.g.,  boilers, process  heat,
     feedstock),
   • The  mix  of  energy  sources
     selected to provide the full range of
     energy services.
The major (exogenous)  inputs  to  a
complete energy  demand model are
industrial production growth trends  and
the prices of various forms of energy.
   The ICE Model covers only a portion
of industrial energy demand. Specifically,
it does not address in any detail:
   •  The  relationship  between  overall
     industrial production and  energy
     demand  (e.g.,  conservation,
     process efficiency trends).
   •  The  demand for energy in  non-
     boiler industrial uses.
   •  The  demand  for  energy forms
     other  than conventional fossil  fuels
     (fuel oil, natural gas, coal).

   Projections of total fossil fuel demand
in industrial boilers by state and year and
forecasts  of  industrial  fuel  prices  by
Federal  region and year are key  ICE
Model input parameters. The Energy and
Environmental Systems  Division of
Argonne  National Laboratory   has
developed  alternative  ICE Model input
scenarios. These  ICE  Model  input
assumptions are based on DOE National
Energy Policy Plan projections.
   A predecessor model, the  Industrial
Fuel  Choice  Analysis  Model  (IFCAM),
provided  the initial  framework   for
development of the  ICE Model.   Key
improvements incorporated in the  ICE
Model include the capability to:
   •  Update base year data to 1980.
   •  Generate projections  by  state
     (excluding Alaska and Hawaii)  out
     to the year 2030.
   •  Provide  pollution  control  retrofit
     options  for existing industrial  coal-
     fired boilers.
   •  Select fuel types in new industrial
     boilers  using  statistical decision
     criteria  based on  a sample of
     recent sales data.
Many of the remaining key assumptions
in the ICE Model, which are presented in
this report, were developed by EPA for
IFCAM.  IFCAM has been  used by EPA to
project  the environmental, cost,  and
energy  impacts  of  alternative  New
Source  Performance Standards  (NSPS)
for industrial boilers.

Model Capabilities
   The  ICE  Model  is  a  process
engineering/simple accounting industrial
boiler fuel choice model. This modeling
technique  simulates  the effects of
specific policies on technical alternatives
by applying direct   engineering
information at a disaggregated level.
   The  ICE Model structure  had been
designed  to  evaluate alternative  fuel
price  projections,  government  energy
and environmental  policy proposals,  the
costs  associated with firing  alternat^
fuels,  and other key  model parameters
The  fuel choice  decision  criterioi
includes  a  comparison  of  after-tax
discounted cash  flows.  Therefore,
variety  of proposed  tax  credits  am
changes  in the tax treatment of  capiU
that provide incentives to invest in coa
related equipment can be analyzed usin
the model.
   Environmental regulatory policies ca
affect  fuel choice by altering the relativ
costs  of burning  alternative  fuels
Regulations relating  to PM,  S02,  an
NOX  emissions  from fuel-burnin
sources  include  state  and  Iocs
regulations and Federal NSPS.
   The ICE Model is capable of  modelin
alternative industrial boiler NSPS.  Th
ICE Model can simulate the use  <
various types of flue  gas desulfurizatic
(FGD)  systems (some with  combine
SOg/PM emissions control), various typ€
of post-combustion  PM emissior
control,  and  two types  of combustic
modifications to control NOX emissions.
   Several types  of  alternative  NSP
specifications  of  SOg  emissions  contr
for new  industrial  residual fuel  oil  <
coal-fired boilers can  be analyzed.  F
example,  the  regulation can  vary  t
boiler size and can be specified  as:
   *  A  ceiling emission rate  (Ib
     pollutant/106 Btu of fuel burned).
   •  A  recommended  percentac
     removal  (e.g.,  90% removal
     uncontrolled SOg emissions).
   •  A  recommended  percentac
     removal  and  a  "floor"  emissio
     rate (e.g.,  90% removal but  i
     lower than 258 ng/J [0.6  lb/1
     Btu]).
   •  A minimum percentage  removal
     be  applied if the recommend
     percentage  removal results
     controlled emission  rates low
     than the floor.
   The  ICE  Model can  simulate  t
impact  of  alternative  fuel  pri
projections  on  industrial  fuel m
Regional fuel priced for distillate  a
residual  fuel  oil (four sulfur  classe
natural gas, and coal (up to 11 types) i
considered in the model.
   The fuel choice decision  is sensitive
non-fuel costs of burning alternate fu«
While the best available cost  data
used,  the model can evaluate the  imp
of any alternative cost estimates.
   The ICE Model's fuel choice  decisk
are a function of technical, economic, i
regulatory factors.  The  ICE  Moi
evaluates fuel switching  in  exist
boilers and fuel  type selection in  n

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  lilers. For existing boilers, fuel choice is
determined  by  comparing the after-tax
net present value  of retrofit  or fuel
conversion capital costs  and  O&M and
fuel expenses. For new units, fuel choice
is  determined by comparing boiler and
pollution control  capital,  O&M, and fuel
costs, as well as other factors.
    The  ICE Model  selects from  a wide
range  of  fuel quality options  (multiple
residual  fuel oil and coal  types) and
alternative pollution  control  strategies.
Table  1  lists alternative  industrial boiler
pollution control technologies in the ICE
Model.

  Table 1. Industrial  Boiler  Pollution
          Control Equipment  Options in
          the ICE Model

    Pollutant          Technology

      SOz     Flue gas desulfurization
                 Dual alkali
                 Lime spray drying*
                 Sodium once-through

      PM     Single mechanical
                 collector
              Dual mechanical collector
              Side stream separator
              Electrostatic precipitator
              Fabric filter

      NOX     Combustion modification
                 Low excess air
                 Staged combustion air

  "Combined SO^PM  emissions control
  system; includes a fabric filter.

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  T. Hogan is with Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., Arlington, VA 22209.
  Larry 6. Jones is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
  The  complete report,  entitled "Description of the Industrial  Combustion
    Emissions Model (Version 6.0)," (Order No. PB 88-212 287''AS; Cost: $19.95,
    subject to change) will be available only from:
       National Technical Information Service
       5285 Port Royal Road
       Springfield, VA 22161
       Telephone:  703-487-4650
  The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
       Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
       U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency
       Research Triangle Park, NC27711
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Center for Environmental Research
Information
Cincinnati OH 45268
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use $300

EPA/600/S8-88/077
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