United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Air and Energy Engineering
Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park NC 27711
Research and Development
EPA/600/S8-88/088 Nov. 1988
v°/EPA Project Summary
The Volatile Organic Compound
Model Quality Assurance and
Sensitivity Testing (Version 1.8)
Mark S. Jennings and Thomas E. Emmel
This report presents test runs of the
Volatile Organic Compound Model
(VOCM). VOCM predicts future emission
levels of volatile organic compounds
(VOCs) by pro|ecting uncontrolled base
year emissions into the future. These
projected emissions are then reduced by
constraints to predict future controlled
emissions of VOCs. VOCM also predicts
VOC emmission control costs. VOCM is
a program that runs on the IBM-PC series
of computers.
This Project Summary was developed
by EPA's Air and Energy Engineering
Research Laboratory, Research Triangle
Park, NC, to announce key findings of the
research project that is fully documented
In a spearate report of the same title (see
Project Report ordering information at
back).
Background
VOCM was developed in support of the
National Acid Precipitation Assessment
Program (NAPAP). NAPAP is developing a
number of models to assist in determining
the role of various pollutants and industrial
sectors in acid rain deposition and damage.
Radian Corporation has been retained by
the Environmental Protection Agency to
develop a model to predict future emission
levels of VOCs from the industrial sector.
VOCM is a result of this development effort.
VOCM predicts future VOC emissions by
applying emission growth factors to a base
year uncontrolled emissions data base. The
uncontrolled projected emissions are then
reduced by emission constraints. Con-
straints may be defined to be specific to
various subsets of emissions based on
region, industrial category, and the timing
of the constraint with respect to when new/
replaced emissions come on-line. VOCM
can also predict emission control costs us-
ing simple tables of efficiency (percent VOC
reduction) versus control costs ($/ton VOC
reduced) specific to individual industrial
categories.
VOCM can project emissions for up to
1000 industrial categories and 50 regions
for projection periods 70 years beyond the
base year emissions. Data bases provided
with VOCM include: 1) 1980 base year un-
controlled and controlled VOC emissions
for 101 industrial categories in 49 states; 2)
growth factors specific to individual in-
dustrial categories in individual states; 3)
industrial category retirement rates; 4) con-
straints modeling various national, regional,
and local regulatory programs; and 5) cost
tables for individual industrial categories.
VOCM includes a built-in data editing
system where these files can be modified
or entirely new files created.
Sensitivity Testing
A battery of sensitivity test cases encom-
passing 19 runs was selected to test
VOCM. Parameters were selected over a
range for which VOCM might reasonably
be applied. The test case scenarios
described in the report are:
Scenario
Run Numbers
1. Constant Growth Rate Test 1, 2, 3
2. Stepped Growth Rate Test 4
3. Single Constraint Run 5, 6, 7, 8
4. Multiple Constraint Run 9, 10
5. Offset Constraint Run 11
6. Rollback Run 12
7. Single Cost Table Run 13, 14, 15, 16
8. Multiple Cost Table Run 17
9. Aggregation Run 18
10. Default Run 19
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Objectives/Results
The test runs of VOCM in this report
were performed to satisfy two objectives:
• To verify that the calculations and opera-
tion of VOCM are in accordance with the
specifications and design of the model.
• To exercise the model with actual data
developed under the NAPAP program.
The results of the test runs show that the
model operates as designed. Test runs
with NAPAP data predict an overall annual
growth rate of VOC emissions for the U.S.
of approximately 1.6% per year for the pro-
jection horizon of 1980 to 2010. An overall
growth in VOC emission control costs of
approximately 4.1% is also predicted.
Mark S. Jennings (presently with Digital Kinetics, Inc., La Honda, CA 94020)
and Thomas E. Emmel are with Radian Corporation, Research Triangle Park,
NC 27709.
Larry G. Jones is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
The complete report, entitled "The Volatile Organic Compound Model Quality
Assurance and Sensitivity Testing/Version 1.8)," (Order No. PB 88-234 166/
AS; Cost: $25.95, subject to change) will be available only from:
National Technical Information Service
5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, VA22161
Telephone: 703-487-4650
The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Center for Environmental Research
Information
Cincinnati OH 45268
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Official Business
Penalty for Private Use S300
EPA/600/S8-88/088
0000329
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