United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Air and Energy Engineering
Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park. NC 27711
,*
Research and Development
EPA/600/S8-88/090 Nov. 1988
£EPA Project Summary
A Projection Methodology for
Future State Level Volatile
Organic Compound
Emissions from Stationary
Sources (Version 1.8)
Thomas E. Emmel
This report presents the model
framework used to estimate state
level and national future volatile
organic compound (VOC) emissions
and control costs for stationary
industrial and utility sources. The
framework involves a projection
approach using the 1980 NAPAP
inventory for VOC emissions
aggregated by 101 defined source
categories apportioned by ozone
attainment and nonattainment areas
for each state. The projection
approach involves applying expected
industry activity factors (growth/-
decline/replacement rates) and
emission constraint factors (en-
vironmental control reductions) to
the base year emission levels. Future
year uncontrolled and controlled
VOC emissions and annualized
control costs are estimated using
annualized control cost values (1980
dollars per ton) for each source
category.
The model was developed for use
on an IBM personal computer with
data input capabilities from
mainframe computers containing the
NAPAP inventory and industry
growth/decline rate data bases. The
model has five data files which
interact to provide uncon-
trolled/controlled VOC emission
projections and cost of controls for
any year from 1980 to 2030; 49
geographic regions (48 contiguous
states and the District of Columbia);
and 90 Industrial/utility point source
categories and 11 Industrial area
sources.
This Project Summary was
developed by EPA's Air and Energy
Engineering Research Laboratory,
Research Triangle Park, NC, to
announce key findings of the research
project that is fully documented In a
separate report of the same title (see
Project Report ordering Information at
back).
Introduction
This report documents the approach
taken for estimating national and state
level future volatile organic compound
(VOC) emissions and the cost of
controlling the emissions from industrial
and utility sources. This study was
sponsored by the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency in support of the
National Acid Precipitation Assessment
Program (NAPAP).
Emissions of VOC may indirectly
contribute to acid deposition through
participation in atmospheric reactions
with nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulfur oxides
(SOx), and other pollutants. The reaction
products may result in wet (precipitation)
or dry acid deposition. For example, it is
generally accepted that the presence of
ozone (a photochemical reaction product
of VOC and NOX) affects transformation
rates of SOX to sulfates. However, there
are indications that the hydrocarbons
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emitted from natural sources have less
impact on air quality than those from
anthropogenic sources. The evidence for
these atmospheric reactions is far from
conclusive, and the possible chemical
reaction mechanisms are not fully
understood. If a definite relationship
between VOC emissions and acid
deposition were established, a VOC
control strategy could be considered.
Development of a VOC policy would
obviously involve analysis of future year
VOC emissions and the cost of controls
associated with alternative regulatory
control strategies.
Under this study, a computer model
(VOC Model) was developed that takes
data from the 1980 NAPAP emission
inventory for utility and industrial point
and area source emissions and projects
future year emission levels by applying
expected future activity (growth/decline
and retirement/replacement rates) and
emission constraints due to ex-
isting/future environmental regulations.
Base year and future year levels of
emission reductions, due to
environmental controls, are then
multiplied by various control cost
effectiveness values to develop the
annual costs of emission controls. The
VOC Model analytical framework is
compatible with the other EPA pollutant
models on stationary and mobile sources
for integration into the overall acid
precipitation emission strategy
modelling.
Objectives
The program objectives were to
project future VOC emissions and
emission control costs by industry
category for each of the 48 U.S.
contiguous states and the District of
Columbia (49 regions). The specific
model objectives were to develop a
projection approach that would:
- have a simple and flexible
framework;
- operate on an IBM personal
computer with mainframe computer
data input capabilities;
- permit easy updating of data files;
- use a menu-driven structure;
- be consistent with other acid
precipitation models; and
- be compatible with NAPAP
emission inventory.
The model contains five primary data
files which interact as shown in Figure 1.
The base year emissions file contains
the NAPAP emissions inventory data
aggregated into 90 point source
categories and 11 area source categories
for the 49 regions. VOC emissions are
expressed on uncontrolled and controlled
bases. The model estimates future year
uncontrolled emissions by applying the
appropriate activity rates found in the
replacement rate file and the
growth/decline rate file. Replacement
rates account for the replacement of
existing industry capacity with new
capacity due to the retirement of existing
equipment. The growth/decline rates
account for changes in industrial
product/service capacity due to market
demand.
Future year controlled emissions are
calculated by imposing emission
constraints on the projected uncontrolled
emissions. These constraints are most
often due to environmental regulations,
and this file contains emission reduction
factors for the following types of
environmental regulations:
- New Source Performance
Standards (NSPS) - Best
Available Control Technology
(BACT);
- State Implementation Plans (SIP)
based on Control Technology
Guidelines (CTG) - Reasonably
Available Control Technology
(RACT);
- New source emissions in ozone
nonattainment areas - Lowest
Achievable Emission Reduction
(LAER) control technology;
- Prevention of Significant
Deterioration (PSD) - Best
Available Control Technology
(BACT) economically achievable
for new major sources;
- National Emission Standards for
Hazardous Air Pollutants
(NESHAP); and
- General state regulations
mandating 80 to 90% control of
reactive VOC emissions.
The model outputs the base year and
projection year (up to year 2030)
uncontrolled/controlled VOC emissions
by industry category and region.
Control costs are calculated by
applying the amount of controlled VOC
emissions (uncontrolled minus controlled
emissions) for each industry category
times a control cost value (dollars per ton
of controlled VOC). The control cost file
can contain up to 12 control cost values
for each industry category (control cost
versus control effectiveness). The model
outputs the VOC emission level of
control and annualized 1980 dollar cost
of controls for each industry category am
region.
The model can also model emissioi
offsets (additional emission reduction!
required for new facilities ii
nonattainment areas) and emissioi
rollbacks (arbitrary restrictions on futur<
emissions specified as a percentage o
current emissions). Input data for thesi
options are contained in an emissioi
offset/rollback file. However, no inpu
data for these options had beei
developed at the time of the writing c
this report, and this input data file is no
discussed further. However, the genere
model framework and implementation c
offsets and rollbacks are discussed.
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Uncontrolled/Controlled Emissions by Industrial Category
State Level Emissions by Attainment/Non-attainment Areas
Level of Control and Control Costs
Figure 1, VOC Model Framework.
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7". E. Emmel is with Radian Corporation. Research Triangle Park, NC 27709.
Larry G. Jones is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
The complete report, entitled "A Projection Methodology for Future State Level
Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from Stationary Sources (Version
1.8)," (Order No. PB 88-238 373/AS; Cost: $19.95, subject to change)
will be available only from:
National Technical Information Service
5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, VA 22161
Telephone: 703-487-4650
The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Center for Environmental Research
Information
Cincinnati OH 45268
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use $300
EPA/600/S8-88/090
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