United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Air and Energy Engineering
Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park NC 27711
Research and Development
EPA/600/S8-88/101 Jan. 1989
&EPA Project Summary
Description of the Process
Model Projection Technique
(PROMPT) (Version 3.0)
Tim Hogan
The Process Model Projection
Technique (PROMPT) is one of four
stationary source emission and
control cost forecasting models
developed by the U.S. EPA for the
National Acid Precipitation Assess-
ment Program (NAPAP). PROMPT
projects air pollution emissions (SO2,
sulfates, and NOX) and costs for
industrial combustion and industrial
processes (e.g., process heaters,
furnaces, dryers, kilns, engines,
turbines and wood-fired boilers).
PROMPT excludes emissions from
the combustion of natural gas,
distillate or residual fuel oil or coal in
industrial boilers. The outputs are
provided for 1980 (from baseline
data), and are forecasted for 1985,
1990,1995, 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030.
This document describes the
model logic and data sources for
PROMPT Version 3.0. The data
sources used to develop Version 3.0
predate the release of the final 1980
NAPAP Emissions Inventory.
Compilation errors identified and
corrected in these preliminary
inventory data have not also been
corrected in the baseline data for
Version 3.0. Instead, EPA has chosen
to update the baseline emissions
data in PROMPT using the more
extensively quality assured 1985
NAPAP Emissions Inventory data
base now nearing completion.
Although PROMPT Version 3.0 has
been tested to verify that its source
code and algorithms are functioning
as intended, the reader is cautioned
to remain aware that the results
obtained from this version of
PROMPT are expected to significantly
change when the next, updated
version of PROMPT using the more
accurate 1985 emission inventory
data in the model's baseline is
released.
This Project Summary was devel-
oped by EPA's Air and Energy
Engineering Research Laboratory,
Research Triangle Park, NC, to
announce key findings of the research
project that is fully documented in a
separate report of the same title (see
Project Report ordering information at
back).
Introduction
This report presents the logic, structure
and data used in the Process Model
Projection Technique (PROMPT).
PROMPT is a model developed for the
U.S. EPA in cooperation with the National
Acid Precipitation Assessment Program
(NAPAP). By design it is a simple, low-
cost model which will provide an initial
assessment of the role and magnitude of
industrial process emissions in the
control of acid deposition sulfur ox-
ides/nitrogen oxides (SOX/NOX) pre-
cursors.
PROMPT projects the emission of NOX
and SOX from industrial sources such as
process heaters, wood-fired boilers,
furnaces, dryers, kilns, engines, and
turbines through the year 2030.
Projections of emissions from
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combustion of natural gas, distillate or
residual fuel oil, or coal in industrial
boilers are developed through the
companion Industrial Combustion
Emissions (ICE) Model. In operating
PROMPT (Version 3.0), the user can
select one of four predetermined energy
and economic scenarios and one of
several alternative air pollution control
strategies. The model estimates the
emissions reduction and cost of the
selected strategy.
Why PROMPT Was Developed
The purpose in developing PROMPT
was to obtain a technique for assessing
the role of industrial processes in
contributing to acid deposition SOX/NOX
precursors. At EPA's request, design
goals for PROMPT included restrictions
that it be easy to use, inexpensive to
create and run, and readily transferable
to other computer systems. To meet
these goals, the model was developed
with substantial aggregation of industrial
emission sources and control cost
information drawing on existing data
bases.
What PROMPT Does
Industrial process emissions sources
are aggregated into eight emission
source groups for SOX analyses and
redistributed into seven other emission
source groups for NOX analyses. For
each group, an aggregate emission
factor has been assigned. Simple control
cost functions are used with each
emission source group to estimate
emission reductions and control costs.
Within some of the emission source
groups, actual control options will vary
substantially; for others, control methods
have not been commercially applied. By
necessity, the control cost functions are
based on limited data.
PROMPT is designed to perform three
functions-
I.For a selected fuel demand
projection, estimate NOX or SOX
baseline emissions (without acid
deposition control initiatives).
2. Compute emissions reduction and
control costs to meet a user-
specified NOX or SOX emission
control strategy.
3. Generate summary output tables of
emissions and control costs.
How PROMPT Operates
The model execution steps and the
required data inputs for PROMPT are
described below
1. NAPAP Energy/Economic Scenario:
The industrial fuel demand in
PROMPT is derived from alternative
NAPAP energy/economic scenarios
data sets consisting of regional
industrial production indices by SIC
code for 1980 through 2030, and
regional industrial energy prices
through the year 2045. Three sets of
driver data are utilized from
NAPAP's 1985 "reference," "low,"
and "high" cases. A fourth case was
prepared in 1986 with a "middle
range" oil price case and the NAPAP
1985 low economic growth rates.
2 ISTUM-2 Model Runs. PROMPT
uses industrial energy demand
projections generated by the
Industrial Sector Technology Use
Model (ISTUM-2) ISTUM-2 is a
process engineering model of the
industrial sector that allows for
technology competition at a detailed
process level. Driven by the
energy/economic scenarios, the
model provides a forecast of the mix
of fuels used by the industrial sector
on a regional basis.
3. Industrial Process Fuel Use Demand
Projections: The ISTUM-2 energy
demand projections for the four
cases are entered into PROMPT as
permanent input data files Excluded
are ISTUM-2 forecasts of natural
gas, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil
and coal demand in industrial
boilers Before the data are entered,
the Btus of fuel demand are
aggregated into the broad categories
defined as emission source groups.
Emission source groups exist
separately for NOX emissions versus
sources of SOX emissions Table 1
lists the NOX and SOX emission
source groups in PROMPT.
4. Energy Scenario and Pollutant
Selection: To initiate a model run,
the user specifies: (a) one of the four
fuel demand scenarios, and (b) the
pollutant to be forecasted (either
NOX or SOX). The model performs
only NOX or SOX emissions
calculations. To project both
pollutants, PROMPT must be run
twice.
5 A/0X or SOX Uncontrolled Emissions.
For each emission source group,
NOX or SOX emission factors are
applied to the Btus of fuel demand.
The emission factors generally vary
by fuel type except for emission
source groups that emit significant
amounts of process- rather tha
fuel-related emissions. Note thi
SOX emissions in two source group:
Smelters and Sulfur Processing, ar
not derived from energy deman
data. SOX emissions originating i
these two emission source group
are primarily non-fuel-relatec
These emissions data are a
exogenous input.
6./VOx and SOX Emission Factor.
Uncontrolled emission factors th,
vary by emission source group ar
fuel type have been estimated f<
use in PROMPT. Controlled emissic
factors have also been develops
where control options are considere
feasible The number of contn
levels in the model vanes with th
emission source group.
7 Air Pollution Control Scenari
Inputs: The model user can sele
from a set of air pollution contr
strategies to evaluate the potenti
NOX or SOX emission reductions ar
the resulting cost of pollution contrc
The strategic options include
uniform percent reduction for eac
emission source group, a unifor
emissions limit, an aggrega
percent or amount of reduction, ar
control to a specified level of co:
effectiveness (annualized co
increase per unit of emissic
reduction)
8 Air Pollution Control Stratec
Analysis: PROMPT computes U
potential emission reductions ar
control costs for the stratec
selected by the model user F
certain control strategies th
requires the iterative analysis of tl
most cost-effective control optioi
for several emission source group
If no control strategy is selected, tt
part of PROMPT is by-passed
9. Emission and Control Cost Outpu
NOX or SO2 emissions, plus ;
pollution control costs for a select
control strategy, are provided at
regional level, by emission sour
group and disaggregated to
State-level in a data file consists
with the input requirements
another NAPAP model. Pnma
sulfate emissions are also comput
by State and by region, assumi
that 2% of SO2 emissions are err
ted as sulfates The emission/cc
outputs are generated for 1980 (ba
year), 1985 (projected, not actu;
1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, 2020, a
2030.
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Table 1. PROMPT Emission Source Groups
Pollutant Group
SOX 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Emission Source
Smelters3
Coke ovens
Cement kilns
Pulp liquor recovery
Sulfur processing3
Petroleum cracking
Agglomeration
Group
Other fuel uses not covered aboveb
NOX 9 Process heaters with high temperature
recuperators
10 Process heaters with low temperature
recuperators
1 1 Glass melting
12 Cement kilns
13 Turbines and engines
14 Fluid bed combustorsc
15 Other fuel uses not covered above'-'
aBased on exogenous assumptions; not generated in PROMPT using fuel demand
dependent emission factors.
^Includes refinery heaters, steel reheat furnaces, soaking pits, drying operations, glass
manufacturing, and industrial turbines.
c Fluid heating, not steam generation
d Includes process heaters without preheat devices, such as brick furnaces, chemical
heaters, and low temperature dryers (e.g., food plants); coke ovens; pulp/paper recovery
burners; and secondary steel mills.
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Tim Hogan is with Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., Arlington, VA 22209.
Larry G. Jones is the EPA Project Officer (see below)..
The complete report, entitled "Description of the Process Model Projection
Technique (PROMPT) (Version 3.0)," (Order No. PB 89-127 468/AS Cost:
$13.95, subject to change) will be available only from:
National Technical Information Service
5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, VA 22161
Telephone: 703-487-4650
The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Center for Environmental Research
Information
Cincinnati OH 45268
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use $300
EPA/600/S8-88/101
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