United States Environmental Protection Agency Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory Research Triangle Park NC 27711 Research and Development EPA/600/S8-88/101 Jan. 1989 &EPA Project Summary Description of the Process Model Projection Technique (PROMPT) (Version 3.0) Tim Hogan The Process Model Projection Technique (PROMPT) is one of four stationary source emission and control cost forecasting models developed by the U.S. EPA for the National Acid Precipitation Assess- ment Program (NAPAP). PROMPT projects air pollution emissions (SO2, sulfates, and NOX) and costs for industrial combustion and industrial processes (e.g., process heaters, furnaces, dryers, kilns, engines, turbines and wood-fired boilers). PROMPT excludes emissions from the combustion of natural gas, distillate or residual fuel oil or coal in industrial boilers. The outputs are provided for 1980 (from baseline data), and are forecasted for 1985, 1990,1995, 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030. This document describes the model logic and data sources for PROMPT Version 3.0. The data sources used to develop Version 3.0 predate the release of the final 1980 NAPAP Emissions Inventory. Compilation errors identified and corrected in these preliminary inventory data have not also been corrected in the baseline data for Version 3.0. Instead, EPA has chosen to update the baseline emissions data in PROMPT using the more extensively quality assured 1985 NAPAP Emissions Inventory data base now nearing completion. Although PROMPT Version 3.0 has been tested to verify that its source code and algorithms are functioning as intended, the reader is cautioned to remain aware that the results obtained from this version of PROMPT are expected to significantly change when the next, updated version of PROMPT using the more accurate 1985 emission inventory data in the model's baseline is released. This Project Summary was devel- oped by EPA's Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC, to announce key findings of the research project that is fully documented in a separate report of the same title (see Project Report ordering information at back). Introduction This report presents the logic, structure and data used in the Process Model Projection Technique (PROMPT). PROMPT is a model developed for the U.S. EPA in cooperation with the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). By design it is a simple, low- cost model which will provide an initial assessment of the role and magnitude of industrial process emissions in the control of acid deposition sulfur ox- ides/nitrogen oxides (SOX/NOX) pre- cursors. PROMPT projects the emission of NOX and SOX from industrial sources such as process heaters, wood-fired boilers, furnaces, dryers, kilns, engines, and turbines through the year 2030. Projections of emissions from ------- combustion of natural gas, distillate or residual fuel oil, or coal in industrial boilers are developed through the companion Industrial Combustion Emissions (ICE) Model. In operating PROMPT (Version 3.0), the user can select one of four predetermined energy and economic scenarios and one of several alternative air pollution control strategies. The model estimates the emissions reduction and cost of the selected strategy. Why PROMPT Was Developed The purpose in developing PROMPT was to obtain a technique for assessing the role of industrial processes in contributing to acid deposition SOX/NOX precursors. At EPA's request, design goals for PROMPT included restrictions that it be easy to use, inexpensive to create and run, and readily transferable to other computer systems. To meet these goals, the model was developed with substantial aggregation of industrial emission sources and control cost information drawing on existing data bases. What PROMPT Does Industrial process emissions sources are aggregated into eight emission source groups for SOX analyses and redistributed into seven other emission source groups for NOX analyses. For each group, an aggregate emission factor has been assigned. Simple control cost functions are used with each emission source group to estimate emission reductions and control costs. Within some of the emission source groups, actual control options will vary substantially; for others, control methods have not been commercially applied. By necessity, the control cost functions are based on limited data. PROMPT is designed to perform three functions- I.For a selected fuel demand projection, estimate NOX or SOX baseline emissions (without acid deposition control initiatives). 2. Compute emissions reduction and control costs to meet a user- specified NOX or SOX emission control strategy. 3. Generate summary output tables of emissions and control costs. How PROMPT Operates The model execution steps and the required data inputs for PROMPT are described below 1. NAPAP Energy/Economic Scenario: The industrial fuel demand in PROMPT is derived from alternative NAPAP energy/economic scenarios data sets consisting of regional industrial production indices by SIC code for 1980 through 2030, and regional industrial energy prices through the year 2045. Three sets of driver data are utilized from NAPAP's 1985 "reference," "low," and "high" cases. A fourth case was prepared in 1986 with a "middle range" oil price case and the NAPAP 1985 low economic growth rates. 2 ISTUM-2 Model Runs. PROMPT uses industrial energy demand projections generated by the Industrial Sector Technology Use Model (ISTUM-2) ISTUM-2 is a process engineering model of the industrial sector that allows for technology competition at a detailed process level. Driven by the energy/economic scenarios, the model provides a forecast of the mix of fuels used by the industrial sector on a regional basis. 3. Industrial Process Fuel Use Demand Projections: The ISTUM-2 energy demand projections for the four cases are entered into PROMPT as permanent input data files Excluded are ISTUM-2 forecasts of natural gas, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil and coal demand in industrial boilers Before the data are entered, the Btus of fuel demand are aggregated into the broad categories defined as emission source groups. Emission source groups exist separately for NOX emissions versus sources of SOX emissions Table 1 lists the NOX and SOX emission source groups in PROMPT. 4. Energy Scenario and Pollutant Selection: To initiate a model run, the user specifies: (a) one of the four fuel demand scenarios, and (b) the pollutant to be forecasted (either NOX or SOX). The model performs only NOX or SOX emissions calculations. To project both pollutants, PROMPT must be run twice. 5 A/0X or SOX Uncontrolled Emissions. For each emission source group, NOX or SOX emission factors are applied to the Btus of fuel demand. The emission factors generally vary by fuel type except for emission source groups that emit significant amounts of process- rather tha fuel-related emissions. Note thi SOX emissions in two source group: Smelters and Sulfur Processing, ar not derived from energy deman data. SOX emissions originating i these two emission source group are primarily non-fuel-relatec These emissions data are a exogenous input. 6./VOx and SOX Emission Factor. Uncontrolled emission factors th, vary by emission source group ar fuel type have been estimated f< use in PROMPT. Controlled emissic factors have also been develops where control options are considere feasible The number of contn levels in the model vanes with th emission source group. 7 Air Pollution Control Scenari Inputs: The model user can sele from a set of air pollution contr strategies to evaluate the potenti NOX or SOX emission reductions ar the resulting cost of pollution contrc The strategic options include uniform percent reduction for eac emission source group, a unifor emissions limit, an aggrega percent or amount of reduction, ar control to a specified level of co: effectiveness (annualized co increase per unit of emissic reduction) 8 Air Pollution Control Stratec Analysis: PROMPT computes U potential emission reductions ar control costs for the stratec selected by the model user F certain control strategies th requires the iterative analysis of tl most cost-effective control optioi for several emission source group If no control strategy is selected, tt part of PROMPT is by-passed 9. Emission and Control Cost Outpu NOX or SO2 emissions, plus ; pollution control costs for a select control strategy, are provided at regional level, by emission sour group and disaggregated to State-level in a data file consists with the input requirements another NAPAP model. Pnma sulfate emissions are also comput by State and by region, assumi that 2% of SO2 emissions are err ted as sulfates The emission/cc outputs are generated for 1980 (ba year), 1985 (projected, not actu; 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, 2020, a 2030. ------- Table 1. PROMPT Emission Source Groups Pollutant Group SOX 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Emission Source Smelters3 Coke ovens Cement kilns Pulp liquor recovery Sulfur processing3 Petroleum cracking Agglomeration Group Other fuel uses not covered aboveb NOX 9 Process heaters with high temperature recuperators 10 Process heaters with low temperature recuperators 1 1 Glass melting 12 Cement kilns 13 Turbines and engines 14 Fluid bed combustorsc 15 Other fuel uses not covered above'-' aBased on exogenous assumptions; not generated in PROMPT using fuel demand dependent emission factors. ^Includes refinery heaters, steel reheat furnaces, soaking pits, drying operations, glass manufacturing, and industrial turbines. c Fluid heating, not steam generation d Includes process heaters without preheat devices, such as brick furnaces, chemical heaters, and low temperature dryers (e.g., food plants); coke ovens; pulp/paper recovery burners; and secondary steel mills. ------- Tim Hogan is with Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., Arlington, VA 22209. Larry G. Jones is the EPA Project Officer (see below).. The complete report, entitled "Description of the Process Model Projection Technique (PROMPT) (Version 3.0)," (Order No. PB 89-127 468/AS Cost: $13.95, subject to change) will be available only from: National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 Telephone: 703-487-4650 The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at: Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 United States Environmental Protection Agency Center for Environmental Research Information Cincinnati OH 45268 Official Business Penalty for Private Use $300 EPA/600/S8-88/101 ------- |