United States
                  Environmental Protection
                  Agency
Air and Energy Engineering
Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park NC 27711
                  Research and Development
EPA/600/S8-88/101  Jan. 1989
&EPA         Project  Summary
                   Description  of the  Process
                   Model  Projection  Technique
                   (PROMPT)  (Version  3.0)
                   Tim Hogan
                     The Process  Model  Projection
                  Technique (PROMPT) is one of four
                  stationary source  emission and
                  control cost forecasting  models
                  developed by the U.S. EPA  for  the
                  National Acid Precipitation  Assess-
                  ment Program (NAPAP). PROMPT
                  projects air pollution emissions (SO2,
                  sulfates, and NOX) and costs  for
                  industrial combustion and industrial
                  processes (e.g.,  process heaters,
                  furnaces, dryers, kilns,  engines,
                  turbines and wood-fired boilers).
                  PROMPT excludes emissions from
                  the  combustion  of natural gas,
                  distillate or residual fuel oil or coal in
                  industrial boilers. The outputs  are
                  provided for  1980 (from  baseline
                  data), and are forecasted  for 1985,
                  1990,1995, 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030.
                     This  document describes  the
                  model  logic  and  data sources  for
                  PROMPT  Version  3.0.  The data
                  sources used to develop Version 3.0
                  predate the release of the final 1980
                  NAPAP  Emissions  Inventory.
                  Compilation  errors  identified and
                  corrected in these  preliminary
                  inventory data have not also been
                  corrected  in  the baseline data  for
                  Version 3.0. Instead, EPA has chosen
                  to update the baseline emissions
                  data in PROMPT  using  the more
                  extensively  quality assured 1985
                  NAPAP  Emissions Inventory data
                  base now nearing completion.
                  Although PROMPT Version  3.0 has
                  been tested to verify that its source
                  code and algorithms are functioning
as intended, the reader is cautioned
to remain aware  that the results
obtained  from  this  version of
PROMPT are expected to significantly
change  when the  next,  updated
version of PROMPT  using the more
accurate 1985 emission inventory
data in  the model's  baseline is
released.
   This  Project Summary was devel-
oped by EPA's Air and  Energy
Engineering Research  Laboratory,
Research Triangle Park,  NC, to
announce key findings of the research
project that  is fully documented in a
separate report of the same title (see
Project Report ordering information at
back).

Introduction
  This report presents the logic, structure
and data used in  the Process Model
Projection Technique  (PROMPT).
PROMPT is a model developed for the
U.S. EPA in cooperation with the National
Acid  Precipitation Assessment Program
(NAPAP). By  design it is a simple, low-
cost model which will  provide  an initial
assessment of the role  and magnitude of
industrial process  emissions in  the
control of acid deposition  sulfur  ox-
ides/nitrogen  oxides  (SOX/NOX)  pre-
cursors.
  PROMPT projects the emission of NOX
and SOX from industrial sources such as
process  heaters, wood-fired boilers,
furnaces, dryers, kilns, engines,  and
turbines  through  the  year 2030.
Projections  of  emissions  from

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combustion of  natural  gas, distillate  or
residual  fuel oil, or coal in  industrial
boilers  are  developed through the
companion  Industrial Combustion
Emissions (ICE) Model.  In  operating
PROMPT  (Version  3.0), the  user can
select one of four predetermined energy
and  economic  scenarios and  one  of
several alternative air  pollution control
strategies. The model estimates the
emissions reduction  and cost of the
selected strategy.

Why PROMPT Was Developed
  The purpose in  developing PROMPT
was to obtain a technique for assessing
the  role  of industrial  processes  in
contributing to  acid deposition SOX/NOX
precursors. At  EPA's  request, design
goals for PROMPT included restrictions
that  it be  easy to  use,  inexpensive  to
create and run, and readily transferable
to other computer systems.  To  meet
these goals,  the  model was  developed
with  substantial aggregation of industrial
emission  sources and control  cost
information drawing on existing data
bases.

What PROMPT Does
  Industrial process emissions sources
are aggregated into  eight  emission
source groups for SOX analyses and
redistributed  into seven  other emission
source groups  for  NOX analyses. For
each  group, an aggregate  emission
factor has  been assigned. Simple control
cost  functions are used with  each
emission  source group to estimate
emission reductions and control costs.
Within some  of the  emission source
groups,  actual  control  options will vary
substantially; for others, control methods
have not been  commercially applied. By
necessity,  the control cost functions are
based on limited data.
  PROMPT is designed to perform three
functions-
  I.For  a selected  fuel  demand
    projection,  estimate NOX  or  SOX
    baseline emissions (without  acid
    deposition control initiatives).
  2. Compute emissions  reduction and
    control  costs to  meet  a  user-
    specified  NOX or  SOX  emission
    control strategy.
  3. Generate summary output tables of
    emissions and control costs.

How PROMPT Operates
  The model  execution  steps and  the
required data  inputs for PROMPT  are
described  below
1. NAPAP Energy/Economic  Scenario:
  The  industrial fuel  demand  in
  PROMPT is derived from alternative
  NAPAP energy/economic  scenarios
  data  sets consisting  of  regional
  industrial  production  indices  by SIC
  code for  1980 through 2030,  and
  regional  industrial  energy  prices
  through the year 2045. Three sets of
  driver  data  are  utilized  from
  NAPAP's  1985 "reference," "low,"
  and "high" cases. A fourth case was
  prepared  in  1986 with a  "middle
  range" oil price case and the NAPAP
  1985 low economic growth  rates.
2 ISTUM-2  Model Runs.  PROMPT
  uses industrial  energy  demand
  projections   generated  by  the
  Industrial  Sector Technology  Use
  Model  (ISTUM-2)  ISTUM-2  is  a
  process  engineering  model  of the
  industrial  sector  that  allows for
  technology competition at a detailed
  process  level.  Driven  by  the
  energy/economic scenarios,  the
  model provides a forecast of the mix
  of fuels used by the industrial sector
  on a regional basis.
3. Industrial Process Fuel Use Demand
  Projections:  The ISTUM-2  energy
  demand  projections  for  the  four
  cases are entered  into PROMPT as
  permanent input data files  Excluded
  are ISTUM-2 forecasts  of  natural
  gas, distillate fuel oil,  residual fuel oil
  and  coal demand  in  industrial
  boilers  Before the data are entered,
  the  Btus of  fuel  demand  are
  aggregated into the broad categories
  defined as emission  source groups.
  Emission source  groups  exist
  separately for NOX emissions versus
  sources of SOX emissions  Table  1
  lists  the  NOX and  SOX  emission
  source groups in PROMPT.
4. Energy  Scenario  and  Pollutant
  Selection:  To initiate a model  run,
  the user specifies: (a) one of the four
  fuel demand scenarios, and  (b) the
  pollutant  to  be forecasted  (either
  NOX  or SOX). The model performs
  only  NOX  or SOX  emissions
  calculations. To  project  both
  pollutants, PROMPT  must  be run
  twice.
5 A/0X or SOX Uncontrolled Emissions.
  For each  emission  source group,
  NOX  or  SOX  emission factors are
  applied to the Btus of fuel demand.
  The emission factors generally  vary
  by fuel  type except for  emission
  source  groups that  emit  significant
  amounts  of  process- rather tha
  fuel-related  emissions.  Note  thi
  SOX emissions in two source group:
  Smelters  and Sulfur Processing,  ar
  not  derived  from energy  deman
  data. SOX emissions  originating  i
  these  two emission  source group
  are  primarily  non-fuel-relatec
  These emissions  data  are  a
  exogenous input.
6./VOx and SOX  Emission  Factor.
  Uncontrolled  emission factors  th,
  vary by emission source group ar
  fuel  type have  been  estimated  f<
  use  in  PROMPT. Controlled  emissic
  factors  have also been  develops
  where  control options are considere
  feasible  The  number  of  contn
  levels  in  the model  vanes  with  th
  emission source group.
7 Air  Pollution   Control Scenari
  Inputs: The  model  user  can sele
  from a set of  air pollution contr
  strategies to evaluate  the  potenti
  NOX or SOX emission reductions ar
  the resulting  cost of pollution contrc
  The strategic  options  include
  uniform percent  reduction  for eac
  emission  source group,  a  unifor
  emissions   limit,  an  aggrega
  percent or amount of  reduction, ar
  control  to a  specified level  of co:
  effectiveness  (annualized  co
  increase  per  unit  of  emissic
  reduction)
8 Air  Pollution  Control Stratec
  Analysis:  PROMPT  computes U
  potential  emission  reductions  ar
  control  costs  for  the  stratec
  selected  by the model user  F
  certain  control strategies  th
  requires the  iterative analysis of  tl
  most cost-effective  control  optioi
  for several emission source group
  If no control strategy is selected, tt
  part of PROMPT is by-passed
9. Emission  and Control Cost Outpu
  NOX or  SO2 emissions,  plus  ;
  pollution control costs for a select
  control strategy,  are  provided at
  regional level,  by emission sour
  group  and  disaggregated  to
  State-level in a data  file consists
  with the  input  requirements
  another  NAPAP model.  Pnma
  sulfate  emissions are also comput
  by  State  and by region, assumi
  that 2% of SO2 emissions  are err
  ted  as sulfates  The emission/cc
  outputs are generated for 1980 (ba
  year),  1985  (projected, not actu;
  1990,  1995,  2000, 2010, 2020, a
  2030.

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Table 1.  PROMPT Emission Source Groups
Pollutant Group
SOX 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Emission Source
Smelters3
Coke ovens
Cement kilns
Pulp liquor recovery
Sulfur processing3
Petroleum cracking
Agglomeration
Group







Other fuel uses not covered aboveb
       NOX                9                Process heaters with high temperature
                                            recuperators

                          10                Process heaters with low temperature
                                            recuperators
                          1 1                Glass melting

                          12                Cement kilns
                          13                Turbines and engines
                          14                Fluid bed combustorsc
                          15                Other fuel uses not covered above'-'

aBased on exogenous assumptions; not generated in PROMPT using fuel demand
 dependent emission factors.
^Includes refinery heaters, steel reheat furnaces, soaking pits, drying operations, glass
 manufacturing, and industrial turbines.
c Fluid heating, not steam generation
d Includes process heaters without preheat devices, such as brick furnaces, chemical
 heaters, and low temperature dryers (e.g., food plants); coke ovens; pulp/paper recovery
 burners; and secondary steel mills.

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  Tim Hogan is with Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., Arlington, VA 22209.
  Larry G. Jones is the EPA Project Officer (see below)..
  The  complete report, entitled "Description of the Process  Model Projection
    Technique  (PROMPT) (Version 3.0),"  (Order  No.  PB  89-127 468/AS  Cost:
    $13.95, subject to change) will be available only from:
            National Technical Information Service
            5285 Port Royal Road
            Springfield, VA 22161
            Telephone:  703-487-4650
  The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
            Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
            U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
            Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Center for Environmental Research
Information
Cincinnati OH 45268
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use $300

EPA/600/S8-88/101

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