United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Air and Energy Engineering
Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park. NC 27711
Research and Development
EPA/600/S8-88/102 Feb. 1989
Project Summary
Baseline Emissions
Forecasts for Industrial
Non-Boiler Sources
Tim Hogan
The Process Model Projection
Technique (PROMPT), one of a
number of National Acid Precipitation
Assessment Program emission
forecasting models, projects the
emissions of nitrogen oxides and
sulfur oxides from industrial sources
such as process heaters, wood
boilers, furnaces, dryers, kilns,
engines, and turbines through the
year 2030. PROMPT excludes
emissions from the combustion of
natural gas, distillate or residual fuel
oil, or coal in industrial boilers.
This document presents regional
air emission forecasts from three
PROMPT runs. These estimates are
intended to illustrate a range of
possible future emissions.
This Project Summary was
developed by EPA's Air and Energy
Engineering Research Laboratory,
Research Triangle Park, NC, to
announce key findings of the
research project that Is fully
documented in a separate report of
the same title (see Project Report
ordering information at back).
Introduction
This report presents outputs from
the Process Model Projection Technique
(PROMPT), developed for EPA in
cooperation with the National Acid
Precipitation Assessment Program
(NAPAP). By design it is a simple, low-
cost model which will provide an initial
assessment of the role and magnitude of
industrial process emissions in the
control of acid deposition sulfur
oxides/nitrogen oxides (SOX/NOX)
precursors.
PROMPT projects the emissions of
NOX and SOX from industrial sources
such as process heaters (including
reactors, furnaces, dryers, and kilns),
wood boilers, engines and turbines.
Projections of emissions for industrial
boilers are developed through the
companion Industrial Combustion
Emissions (ICE) Model.
This report contains baseline
uncontrolled NOX and SOX emissions
forecasts based on projections of
industrial production growth rates and
energy prices from the three August
1985 NAPAP test energy/economic
scenarios. The PROMPT input
assumptions and projections do not
necessarily reflect EPA, DOE, or
Interagency Task Force on Acid
Precipitation policies or forecasts. The
PROMPT air pollution emission estimates
for industrial non-boilers are intended to
illustrate a range of possible future
uncontrolled emissions under specific
energy/economic scenarios.
Objectives and Approach
PROMPT has been developed to
forecast NOX and SOX emissions from
industrial process sources and to provide
a framework for evaluating the role and
magnitude of these emissions sources in
the control of acid deposition SOX/NOX
precursors.
The primary objectives of the
PROMPT are to:
• Forecast baseline uncontrolled NOX
and SOX emissions estimates, and
• Compute emission reductions and
control costs to meet a user-
specified NOX or SOX air pollution
control strategy
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The baseline NOX and SOX
emissions estimates are based on
industrial non-boiler fuel demand
projections generated by the Industrial
Sector Technology Use Model (tSTUM).
ISTUM is a process engineering model
of industrial sector energy use that
allows for technology competition at a
detailed process level. The model
provides a forecast of the mix of fuels
used by the industrial sector on a
regional basis.
The ISTUM non-boiler energy
demand projections (and resulting
PROMPT baseline air pollution emissions
forecasts) were developed using
energy/economic scenarios from
NAPAP's August 1985 test "reference,"
"low," and "high" cases. The three sets
of energy/economic driver data,
developed by Argonne National
Laboratory, provide regional forecasts of
industrial production growth rates and
fuel prices to run ISTUM.
Before the non-boiler energy
forecasts are entered in PROMPT, they
are aggregated into large categories of
fuel use called emission source groups.
The number of emissions source groups
has been kept small to simplify the
model framework for forecasting
emissions and control costs. Two
aggregations of non-boiler fuel demand
are contained in PROMPT. Emission
source groups exist separately for NOX
emissions versus sources of SOX
emissions, based on the similarity of
emissions among various energy uses.
For each emission source group,
NOX or SOX emission factors are applied
to the projected fuel demand. The
emission factors generally vary by fuel
type except for emission source groups
that emit significant amounts of
process-related rather than fuel-
related emissions. SOX emissions for
two source groups, smelters and sulfuric
acid/sulfur recovery plants, are not fuel-
related and thus are not derived from
energy demand data. Their emissions
are an exogenous input to the model.
A set of air pollution emission control
strategies is available to evaluate the
potential SOX or NOX emissions re-
ductions for industrial non-boilers and
the resulting aggregate costs of pollution
control. PROMPT computes the potential
emission reductions within each emission
source group for the control strategy
selected and the stringency specified by
the user.
NOX or SOX emissions, plus control
costs, are output at the Federal region
level by emission source group.
Aggregate emissions and cost
projections are also provided by State.
The emission and cost outputs are
generated at 5-year intervals for 1980-
2000, and every 10 years for 2000
through 2030.
User Options
The model allows the user to vary
the inputs for the:
• Non-boiler energy demand
projections, and
• NOX or SOX emissions control
strategy.
PROMPT presently contains the three
alternative energy demand forecasts
based on ISTUM runs using the three
August 1985 NAPAP test en-
ergy/economic scenarios. The user mus
select one of these cases to initiate e
PROMPT run.
An air pollution control strategy can b«
selected for either NOX or SOX emissions
to assess alternative methods of acic
deposition reduction. The following
strategies can be used:
1) Uniform percent reduction: Emission!
of each source group are reduced b>
the same percentage.
2) Emissions limits: The emissions o
each source group are limited, not t<
exceed a specified emission rate.
3) Cost-effectiveness limit: The cost c
control is limited, not to exceed spe
cified ratio.
4) Aggregate percent or amoun
reduction: Total emissions an
reduced by a specified percentage c
amount.
This report contains only baselin
uncontrolled emissions projections for th
three NAPAP test cases; it does nc
present results for potential emissio
control strategies.
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Tim Hogan is with Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., Arlington, VA 22209.
Larry G. Jones is the EPA Protect Officer (see below).
The complete report, entitled "Baseline Emissions Forecasts for Industrial
Non-Boiler Sources," (Order No. PB 89-118 723/AS; Cost: $21.95,
subject to change) will be available only from:
National Technical Information Service
5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, VA 22161
Telephone: 703-487-4650
The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
U.S. OFFICIAL MAIL"
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Center for Environmental Research
Information
Cincinnati OH 45268
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use $300
EPA/600/S8-88/102
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