v°/EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Exploratory
Research
Washington DC 20460
Research and Development
EPA-600/S9-82-010 August 1982
Project Summary
Mini-Assessment of
Environmental Trends and
Problems: Alternative
Feedstocks
G. M. Burck, B. J. Riordan, K. C. Hoffman, and R. W. Meehan, II
This report discusses the potential
for replacing oil and natural gas, the
major organic chemical feedstocks,
with alternative source materials and
the consequent potential for environ-
mental damage. Major emphasis is on
five basic chemicals, and others are
also considered in order to provide a
more complete view of the chemical
industry, particularly of those sectors
where alternative feedstocks may
have a significant impact. Using the
Reference Materials System, current
sources and uses of key chemicals are
traced and a projection is made to the
year 2OOO under assumptions reflect-
ing current market conditions. Three
scenarios then define the upper limits
for potential alternative feedstocks:
(1) coal-based synthesis gas, (2)
synfuel by-products, and (3) biomass.
Residuals and socio-economic impacts
are identified. Potential problems are
ranked speculatively in terms of
severity and then ranked in terms of
likelihood. Several areas of further
research are recommended. An exten-
sive bibliography lists sources on the
chemical industry and on fossil hydro-
carbon and biomass derived feed-
stocks.
This Project Summary was developed
by EPA's Office of Exploratory Research,
Washington, DC, to announce key
findings of the research project that is
fully documented in a separate report
of the same title (see Project Report
ordering information at back).
Introduction
The principal concern of this report is
the potential of alternative source
materials for replacing oil and natural
gas as feedstocks for basic organic
chemicals and the consequent potential
for environmental damage. The ultimate
objective is to assist in the planning and
development of the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) research and
development (R & D) programs. The
scenarios employed are not meant to be
forecasts; they are representations of
credible upper limits on movements into
alternative feedstocks and the specific
events or circumstances that could lead
to the scenario outcome.
The major emphasis is on five chemi-
cals — benzene, ethylene, cyclohexane,
ethylbenzene and styrene — selected by
the EPA as representative of all basic
organics. Synthesis gas and other large
volume basic chemicals, plus major
derivatives, are also considered in order
to provide a more complete view of the
chemical industry, particularly those
sectors where alternative feedstocks
may have a significant impact.
The Mini-Assessment approach em-
ployed here differs considerably from
more conventional technological impact
studies. In particular, as an attempt to
guide anticipatory research, the Mini-
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Assessment must include speculative
information in addition to the definitive.
It is necessary in such an assessment to
resort to judgmental or subjective
evaluation to address the "what if" type
of question involved in preparing for
future circumstances which may have
potentially large impacts, but whose
likelihood of occurring is highly uncertain.
The Mini-Assessment is also aimed as
much at detecting deficiencies in
information as at applying existing
information to particular problems.
Perhaps most important, the ultimate
objective of this Mini-Assessment is not
to direct EPA's attention to a particular
future forecast but to "raise the
consciousness" of the regulators with
regard to the important effects of
different futures and to point out the
events that might move industry in
alternative directions.
Technical Approach
The technical approach to the Mini-
Assessment incorporates three discrete
aspects:
• Derivation of alternative feedstock
scenarios for the year 2000;
• Characterization of chemical flows
from feedstocks to consumption
(trajectories) for each scenario
using the Reference Materials
System framework; and
• Identification of differential en-
vironmental impacts associated
with alternative feedstock scenarios.
In conjunction with a group of
technical consultants and ORD's Office
of Strategic Assessment and Special
Studies (OSASS) staff, three scenarios
involving use of alternative feedstocks
in 2000 were established. The scenarios
are characterized as:
Scenario A-1: Coal to Synthesis Gas
to Chemicals
Scenario A-2: Coal to Synthetic Fuels
with Chemical By-Products
Scenario A-3: Biomass to Chemicals.
The parameters of each scenario
were established judgmentally. This
approach provides a reasonable basis
for the assessment of potential environ-
mental problems that must be dealt with
in a research and development program.
Each scenario and its specific param-
eters is dependent upon a number of
assumptions that are detailed in the
text. The major overall assumptions are:
• Imports of chemical feedstocks
remain small;
• Total chemical product demand
grows at a 3.5 percent annual rate,
slightly more than the GNP and
similar to short-term industry
expectations, but below rates
prevailing during the fifties and
sixties; and
• The composition of demand remains
essentially invariant among the
year 2000 scenarios; thus the
scenario differences are driven by
supply considerations rather than
by demand.
Table 1 summarizes the key charac-
teristics of each scenario plus those of
the year 2000 baseline. In A-2, synfuel
by-products provide about 70 percent of
the feedstocks for a chemical industry
twice its current size of 40 million
metric tons. In A-1, synthesis gas
provides 40 percent of the feedstock
demand (the total feedstock demand is
20 percent greater than that of A-2 due
to the demand for methanol fuel). In A-
3, biomass provides 60 percent of the
demand which includes a 25 percent
increment for ethanol fuel.
Building on the general descriptions
of the scenarios, complete chemical
pathways involving the five key chemi-
cals, in addition to others, were derived
for each alternative feedstock scenario,
a year 2000 baseline case (R-2000), and
for the past year (R-1980). The method-
ological framework employed for this
purpose was the Reference Materials
System (RMS), a network description of
the flow of material resources, linking
alternative resources and feedstocks to
specific markets through processing
and conversion pathways. Detailed
RMS chemical networks were developed
for the 1980and 2000 baselines andfor
each alternative scenario, not as market
forecasts but to show where major
changes might occur in these limiting
cases.
Where possible, environmental effects
are calculated in detail, working from
the RMS chemical networks. Residual
coefficients are derived for each process
in each trajectory involving the specified
chemicals, and residual volumes are
summed for each scenario. Where
detailed information is not available,
potential impacts are estimated and
critical information gaps are identified.
To the extent possible, residuals plus
the other, less quantifiable, impacts are
associated with EPA geographical
regions and assessed in relation to
comparable data developed in Environ-
mental Outlook, 1980, (EPA-600/8-80-
003) an EPA compilation of projections
to the year 2000.
Severity/Likelihood
Assessment
Given the speculative nature of the
Mini-Assessment, environmental con-
sequences must be evaluated in terms
of the likelihood of occurrence as well as
in terms of the potential severity of
impact. Table 2 lists in declining order of
severity the ten most prominent envi-
ronmental effects identified in the
study.
Two judgments greatly affect this
assessment. First, since chemical
feedstocks are simply by-products of
synfuels generation, the environmental
impacts associated with synfuel devel-
opment are not allocated to chemicals
at all. That is, fuel must bear the full cost
burden, since without fuel uses there
would be no synfuel plants to make
chemical feedstocks.
Second, the size of the biomass
market envisioned in Scenario A-3, in
conjunction with an expanded pulp and
paper industry, could warrant the
establishment of intensively cultivated
tree farms (silviculture facilities).
Professional opinion is divided .on this
point. It is not clear what scale of
biomass production would trigger
intensive silvicultural methods as
opposed to a refinement of current, less
intensive methods, combined with
fuller utilization of growth not currently
suitable for paper manufacture.
Combined severity/likelihood ratings
reflect the assessment that syngas
development is quite likely; synthetic
fuels less so; and biomass development
relatively unlikely. Although Scenario
A-3 (Biomass) dominates the top of the
severity list, when likelihood factors are
also considered, only nutrient and
pesticide runoff retains its relative
importance. Two other problems appear
to be unambiguously more important:
socioeconomic impacts (Region VIII)
and total dissolved solids (Region III).
Regionally, the three scenarios shift
chemical processing capacity from EPA
Region VI to the Southeast where it is
currently concentrated, toward Region
III in the case of Scenarios A-1 and A-2,
and toward Region VI to the Southeast
in the case of Scenario A-3.
Overall, the greatest inducement
toward the synthesis gas scenario is
seen to be a significant increase in the
price of oil and gas with respect to coal.
Several other events would have
important effects — a Federal methanol
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Table 1. Key Characteristics of Alternative Futures
Principal
Feedstocks
Relation of Growth
to Energy Industry
R-2000
(Baseline)
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Dependent
A-1 (Syngas)
Coal (40%)
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Independent
A-2 (Syn fuels)
Synfuel by-
products (70%)
Petroleum
Dependent
A-3 (Biomass)
Biomass (60%)
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Partly
Dependent
Initiating Sector
Public Awareness
Location
Timing
Likelihood
Key to
Technical
Development
Greatest Chemical
Impact
Private
Moderate
Concentrated
High
Private
Low
Multi-center
1990
High
Catalysts for
New Uses
Ethylene
Public
Very Low
Concentrated
1990s
Moderate to
none
Location;
Control of
Feed-Rate
C,-C4
Mixed
High — Ethanol Fuel
Low — Other
Dispersed
2000s
Moderate — Ethanol Fuel
Low — Other
Lignin Conversion,
Avoiding Distillation,
Bioconversion, Process
Integration
Aromatics
Table 2. Ten Prominent Environmental Concerns
(listed in relative order of severity)
Problem Region Likely Affected
Scenario
1. Nutrient and pesticide
runoff
IV (Southeast)
A-3
2. BOD discharges
3. Socioeconomic impacts
4. Socioeconomic impacts
5. Hydrocarbon emissions
6. A/Ox emissions
7. Total dissolved solids
discharge
8. Land subsidence
9. Acid drainage
10. Disturbance of wildlife
habitats
IV
VIII (Mountain)
IV
VIII
VIII
III (Middle Atlantic)
III, IV and V (Great Lakes)
III
IV
A-3
A-2
A-3
A-1
A-1
A-1
A-1
A-1
A-3
program, successful scale-up of coal-to-
chemicals technologies, and more
permissive regulation of coal mining
and leasing of coal properties — but
lower overall impacts.
In the case of the biomass scenario,
price is again seen as a major initiating
factor. A more important initiating
factor, however, concerns the state of
ethanol production technology. A break-
through in fermentation technology
could intensify private sector investment
and/or government commitment to
ethanol development and stimulate
research and development in the area of
lignin technology. Ethanol production
would necessarily produce large amounts
of by-product lignin, which even if
unutilized could present significant
environmental problems.
In summary, while coal gasification is
primarily driven by economic forces,
wood chemicals would be affected by
both economic and technological devel-
opments.
Information Deficiencies
One of the objectives of a Mini-
Assessment is to point out pertinent
areas in which information deficiencies
occur. Ten of the most important areas
are shown in Table 3. It is not at all
surprising that the wood-to-chemicals
scenario dominates the list. This is
clearly the area about which the least is
known, from the basic chemistry
through to socio-economic impacts.
The one item that carries through the
three scenarios relates to the geo-
graphical and economic factors that
affect choice of location for chemical
processing and related activities. Since
it is clear that the environmental impacts
of alternative chemical feedstocks will be
almost entirely regional and local in
nature, it is extremely important to have
better information on the potential
locational patterns for each scenario.
The regional assignments developed for
this study are crude and should be
considered illustrative rather than
definitive.
US OOVBWMeHTPI»K™aofnce:1««-559-Ol7/0774
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A number of specific research recom-
mendations relating to the information
deficiencies identified may be drawn.
The most important are:
• Assess the geographical/economic
impacts of any industrial migration,
and particularly of chemical process
industries, to regions with low
population;
• Provide for monitoring of new
chemical and energy plants to
determine what trace elements
and toxic substances may be
emitted on the industrial scale and
what are their ecological pathways;
• Encourage silviculture research
programs to establish pesticide
requirements, runoff effects and
the ecological impacts of growing,
harvesting and using the biomass;
and
• Follow the research in lignin
chemistry and processing tech-
nology which will be prompted by
the ethanol program and encourage
attention to the environmental
impacts.
Table 3. Ten Important Areas of Information Deficiency
Scenario A-1
7. Geographical/economic factors affecting syngas locational decisions
2. Generation of trace elements and toxic substances in effluents
Scenario A-2
3. Geographical/economic factors affecting by-product chemical locational
decisions
Scenario A-3
4. Pesticide needs of silviculture
5. Geographical/economic factors affecting biomass chemical locational
decisions
6. Lignin chemistry and processing technology
7. Design factors for representative wood plantation/chemical processing plant
8. Competitive economics vis-a-vis other chemical feedstocks
9. Ecological effects of silviculture
10. Technological aspects of controlling silviculture runoff
G. M. Burck, B. J. Riordan, K. C. Hoffman, and R. W. Meehan. II are with
MATHTECH, Inc., Arlington. VA 22209.
David Bennett is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
The complete report, entitled "Mini-Assessment of Environmental Trends and
Problems: Alternative Feedstocks," (Order No. PB 82-227 810; Cost:
$ 19.50, subject to change) will be available only from:
National Technical Information Service
5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, VA 22161
Telephone: 703-487-4650
The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
Office of Exploratory Research
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington. DC 20460
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Center for Environmental Research
Information
Cincinnati OH 45268
Postage and
Fees Paid
Environmental
Protection
Agency
EPA 335
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use $300
PS oooo3a9
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