United States Environmental Protection Agency Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory Research Triangle Park NC 27711 Research and Development EPA/600/S7-84/091 Apr. 1985 <&ERr\ Project Summary Status Report on the Development of the NAPAP Emission Inventory for the 1980 Base Year and Summary of Preliminary Data Douglas A. Toothman, John C. Yates, and Edward J. Sabo The report documents the compilation of a 1980 emissions inventory for use in the National Acid Precipitation Assess- ment Program (NAPAP). The current inventory (Version 3.0) contains point source data for over 50,000 plants (with over 201,000 emission points) and area source data for the 3,069 counties in the 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia. Emissions of SO2, NOX, VOC, CO, and participates are included in the inventory, but the report focuses on SO2. NOx, and VOC which are of primary interest for acid deposition research. NAPAP Version 3.0 emissions of SO2. NO,, and VOC are 27.1, 23.7, and 23.3 million tons per year, respec- tively. Summaries of emissions by source category, geographic region, state, fuel type, season, and stack height range are presented along with emission density maps and fuel use summaries. Emissions in the NAPAP data base are in reasonable agreement with Work Group 3B and EPA/OAQPS emissions trends estimates. NAPAP fuel use data show reasonable agreement with fuel values in DOE's State Energy Data Report. Version 3.0 of NAPAP repre- sents a detailed inventory of emissions on a national scale; however, it should be noted that additional improvements are planned. The full report is an initial version of the 1980 NAPAP emissions inventory. While it describes the methods used to compile the 1980 NAPAP emissions inventory and gives preliminary results from applying those methods, several improvements to the methods and data used are currently in process. Other changes can be anticipated as the need or opportunity for changes is identified. Thus, it is important to emphasize the less-than-final nature of this report and the many numbers it contains. The report is being circulated to facilitate the critique process, not because it is a completed document suitable for un- critical use. Any use outside of these bounds should be considered with the utmost caution. This project was administered by the USEPA, with funding from NAPAP's Task Group B—Man-Made Sources. The report has been reviewed and approved for publication consistent with the above conditions by appropriate EPA and NAPAP personnel. This Project Summary was developed by EPA's Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC. to announce key findings of the research project that is fully docu- mented in a separate report of the same title (see Project Report ordering infor- mation at back). Introduction A detailed 1980 base year emission inventory has been developed by Task ------- Group B of the Interagency Task Force on Acid Precipitation to support the needs of the National Acid Precipitation Assess- ment Program (NAPAP). This report sum- marizes the current version (3.0) of the NAPAP inventory. Development History of Version 3.0 The NAPAP data were developed start- ing with information from EPA's National Emissions Data System (NEDS). These data have been improved by incorporating the latest available emission factors, substitution of data from the Northeast Corridor Regional Modeling Project and other more representative of 1980 NEDS data, cross-checking the electric utility data with DOE's data compiled by E. H. Pechan and Associates, cross-checking data with information from the U.S./ Canada Work Group 3B report, and adding county centroid latitude and longitude for sources with missing or incorrect Uni- versal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordi- nates. The NAPAP data are stored in the Emission Inventory System (EIS) format on EPA's IBM computer at Research Triangle Park, NC. The data consist of point source data for 50,200 establish- ments (with over 201,000 emission points) and area source data for each of 3,069 counties included in the 48 con- tiguous states of the U.S. and the District of Columbia. Currently, NAPAP reports emissions of S02, NO,, VOC, particulates, and CO. It is planned to add sulfates, ammonia, and other pollutants in the future. This report focuses on emissions of S02, NO*, and VOC which are of primary interest for acid deposition re- search. Emissions Summary and Comparison Tables 1-7 summarize national emis- sions of SO2, NOX, and VOC from Version 3.0 of NAPAP. Regional totals of emis- sions and state totals of point and area source emissions are also shown. More detailed emissions summary information is given in report Chapter 2, including emissions by state, emissions by season and stack height ranges, and emission density maps. The S02 emissions are dominated by electric utilities, primarily from coal-fired generating stations in the eastern U.S. Other significant source sectors include industrial combustion (again, mostly from coal), non-ferrous smelters (primarily copper smelters in the southwestern U.S.), and other industrial processes (largely petroleum refining, chemicals, cement plants, and pulp mills). For NO,, the largest sources are transportation (mostly highway vehicles), electric util- ities, and industrial combustion. Electric utility emissions result primarily from coal combustion, but a significant portion also results from natural gas combustion. For industrial sources, the largest portion of NO, emissions comes from natural gas combustion. For VOC, emissions result largely from transportation (again, primar- ily highway vehicles), other industrial processes, and miscellaneous sources. Principal industrial process sectors in- clude chemicals, petroleum refining, petroleum transportation and storage, and a wide variety of activities involving organic solvent consumption. Miscella- neous sources include additional organic solvent use not accounted for by point sources in NAPAP, retail gasoline service stations, and forest wildfires. The geographic breakdown of SOa emissions shows that EPA Regions 4 and 5 are the largest contributors, accounting for about 53% of the national total. Region 3 also has significant emissions, with a 14% contribution. The eastern 31 states account for over 82% of nationwide emissions. For NO,, RegionsA 5, and 6 are the highest emitters, with 60% of the national total. Region 3 is again next, with 10% of total emissions. Although not as great a contribution as for SOz, the eastern 31 states still account for about 64% of national emissions. Regions 4, 5, and 6 are also responsible for the greatest amount of VOC emissions, with 54% of the national total. The eastern 31 states account for 66% of the nation's emissions, which is about the same as for NO,. Thus, emissions of all three pollutants are concentrated in the east, especially those of SO2 Substantial variability in SO2 emissions exists between regions, with less difference for NO, and even less for VOC. The relative importance of point versus area source emissions varies for each of the three pollutants. Point sources con- tribute about 92% of national SOa emis- sions. For NO,, emissions are nearly evenly distributed, with area sources contributing 51%. Area sources, on the other hand, emit about 79% of total VOC emissions. Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Indi- ana have the greatest SOz emissions. Texas, California, and Ohio are the great- est NO, emitters, while Texas and California have the greatest VOC emis- sions. The relative contribution of point versus area sources varies from state to state. Seasonal variations were derived from operating data in the point source inven- tory and seasonal factors added to the area source file. Power plant operating data were updated based on monthly fuel use data reported on FPC Form 4. Sea- sonal variations are less than expected. For S02, the maximum variation is 3% (24 to 27%). Emissions are greatest in winter, lowest in spring, and differ by 11.9%. The maximum variation for NO, is only 2% (24 to 26%). Emissions are again greatest in winter and lowest in spring, with only a 6.3% difference. The maximum variation for VOC is the same as for NO, (24 to 26%), with an 8.0% difference between the highest season (summer) and the lowest (winter). Although effective plume height is of greatest interest to modelers, only stack height data are included in NAPAP. Thus, only emissions by stack height range Table 1. NAPAP Emissions by Source Category* (Preliminary Data) SO2 NO, VOC Electric Utilities Industrial Combustion Residential/ Commerical Combustion Non-ferrous Smelters Other Industrial Processes Transportation Miscellaneous Total "106 tons/year. 17.3 3.7 0.9 1.2 3.0 0.9 0.1 27.1 Table 2. NAPAP Emissions 81 4.5 0.7 Neg 1.0 9.1 0.3 23.7 0.1 1.0 0.1 Neg 45 8.0 9.6 233 by Region''" (Preliminary Data) SO, /VO* VOC EPA Region 1 EPA Region 2 EPA Region 3 EPA Region 4 EPA Region 5 EPA Region 6 EPA Region 7 EPA Region 8 EPA Region 9 EPA Region 10 31 Eastern States" Nation 0.7 1 2 3.8 65 7.9 23 2.0 08 1.5 0.4 223 27.1 0.6 1.2 2.3 4 1 48 5.3 1.8 1 2 1.7 0.7 151 23.7 12 1.8 2 1 4.0 45 4.0 1 4 0.9 2.4 1.0 15.3 23.3 "Includes Continental U.S. only. "10s tons/year. "Includes tier of states from Minnesota south to Louisiana and all states east. ------- Table 3. State AL AZ AR CA CO CT DE DC FL GA ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MO MA Ml MN MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA Rl SC SO TN TX UT VT VA WA WV Wl WY Totals National Summary of NAPAP Emissions by State' (Preliminary Data} SO2 /VOx Point 774 824 59 416 114 51 105 11 1.124 847 36 1.360 1,746 366 198 1,113 343 122 273 317 844 242 256 1.236 146 65 140 102 234 247 787 621 95 2,655 86 31 1.770 10 324 34 1.103 1.081 89 3 338 280 1.091 668 224 25,001 Area 76 20 30 118 20 18 22 6 78 30 20 99 134 24 33 45 158 12 23 45 34 21 50 61 22 12 7 5 69 11 77 32 19 50 16 25 82 4 18 7 31 260 27 7 48 46 13 20 25 2,110 Total 850 844 89 534 134 69 127 17 1.202 877 56 1.459 1.880 390 231 1.158 501 134 296 362 878 263 306 1,297 168 77 147 107 303 258 864 653 114 2,705 102 56 1,852 14 342 41 1,134 1,341 116 10 386 326 1,104 688 249 27,111 Point 273 141 65 455 137 41 36 5 246 279 9 655 536 167 302 373 568 21 114 88 378 229 99 349 28 92 76 30 160 224 321 302 103 665 177 53 595 6 154 22 336 1.543 80 1 160 131 352 205 184 1 1.566 Area 252 153 167 868 155 103 33 22 383 308 82 462 324 '182 290 231 253 43 164 184 368 227 196 258 102 118 47 30 274 83 427 268 65 554 285 175 487 30 148 55 237 1,943 95 43 251 219 121 221 115 12.101 Total 525 294 232 1.323 292 144 69 27 629 587 91 1.117 860 349 592 604 821 64 278 272 746 456 295 607 130 210 123 60 434 307 748 570 168 1.219 462 228 1,082 36 302 77 573 3.486 175 44 411 350 473 426 299 23.667 Point 73 13 14 417 21 44 26 1 23 28 6 208 117 31 81 125 322 20 76 108 238 63 52 177 12 46 4 20 155 52 143 108 2 165 72 40 240 13 228 3 157 940 11 4 105 48 14 76 20 4,962 VOC Area 351 228 230 1,691 300 259 48 43 725 495 205 768 472 241 241 280 299 73 270 444 730 360 234 429 203 119 73 69 562 109 988 465 46 914 297 279 802 84 259 88 353 1.710 134 36 358 373 124 372 74 18,307 Total 424 241 244 2.108 321 303 74 44 748 523 211 976 589 272 322 405 621 93 346 552 968 423 286 606 215 165 77 89 717 161 1,131 573 48 1.079 369 319 1.042 97 487 91 510 2.650 145 40 463 421 138 448 94 23.269 °/03 tons/year. ------- Table 4. NAPAP Emissions by Season" (Preliminary Data) SO2 /VO. VOC Winter 27 26 24 Spring 24 24 25 Summer 25 25 26 Fall . 24 25 25 Total (10* tons/year) 27.1 23.7 23.3 "Percent of total. Table 5. Range(ft) NAPAP Emissions by Stack Height Range* (Preliminary Data) SO2 /VO, VOC 0-120 121-240 241-480 >480 Total (10* tons/year) 20 15 22 43 25.0 34 1-7 20 29 116 94 5 1 0 5.0 "Percent of total. from stacks >480feet in height are about twice as much as from any other one range, demonstrating the dominance of power plants and smelters with respect to SC>2 emissions. NO, emissions are a little more evenly distributed: the lowest height range, <120 feet, has the greatest emis- sions, followed closely by the highest range. Thus, relatively small boilers and internal combustion engines probably emit slightly more NO, as a group than do power plants. Nearly all VOC emissions come from the lowest stack height range, indicating the predominance of evapo- rative point source categories. These data show that nearly all VOC emissions (both point and area) are emitted below 120 feet. Of total NO, emissions, 80% or more also are released below 120 feet. On the other hand, nearly 40% of all SO2 is emitted at heights above 480 feet. The county emission density summary was derived from data used to generate the density maps included in Chapter 2 of the report. The highest range shown on the maps, >100 tons/square mile, is Table 6, NAPAP County Emission Density Summary (Preliminary Data) SO, NO, VOC Density flange (tons/mi2) 0-10 10-30 30-100 100-1000 >1000 Counties in Range <%) 84 6 6 4 0 Emissions in Range (%) 10 11 25 51 3 Counties in Range (%> 78 12 7 3 0 Emissions in Range (%) 24 19 30 27 0 Counties in Range (%/ 78 14 6 2 0 Emissions in Range (%) 27 20 24 27 2 Table 7. Comparison of NAPAP, Trends, and Work Group 3B Emissions of SO2 and /V0,a (Preliminary Data) Electric Utilities Non-Utility Combustion Non-Ferrous Smelters Transportation Other Sources Total WG3B 173 3.5 1.3 0.9 3.3 26.3 SOz Trends 17.1 3.6 1.3 1.0 2 7 25.7 NAPAP 173 46 1 2 0.9 3.1 271 WG3B 6.2 4.6 0.0 9.3 1.1 21.2 /VO, Trends 7.1 4 1 0.0 105 1.1 228 NAPAP 8 1 52 00 9.1 1.3 23.7 "10s tons/year. could be summarized for this report. The stack height ranges were not selected based on any specific criteria; neverthe- less, they show how emissions vary with height. Emissions of S02 in the three lowest ranges are similar, but emissions divided into two ranges in the table for illustrative purposes. For SO2, the coun- ties in the two highest ranges shown in the table result from power plants m the east, primarily in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes areas. These counties repre- sent only 4% of those in the nation, but have 54% of the total emissions. The two counties with densities over 1,000 tons/ square mile are Gallia, Ohio, and Marshall, West Virginia. Both have two power plants that are in the top 25 emitters in the nation. Counties in the lowest density range represent 84% of all counties, but only 10% of the total emis- sions. For NO,, the counties in the two highest ranges shown in the table result from either power plants or highway vehicles. These counties represent only 3% of those in the nation, but contribute 27% of the total emissions. The only county with a density over 1,000 tons/ square mile is New York City-Manhattan. Counties in the lowest density range represent 78% of all counties, but only 24% of the total emissions. Due to the greater area source influence, NO, emis- sions are more evenly distributed among the ranges than are those for S02- For VOC, the counties in the two highest ranges shown in the table result from solvent use and highway vehicles These counties represent only 2% of all counties in the nation, but contribute 29% of the total emissions. The six counties with densities over 1,000 tons/square mile— Manhattan, Kings {New York), Baltimore, St. Louis, Denver, and San Francisco— are heavily urbanized, with relatively small geographic areas. Counties in the lowest density range represent 78% of all counties, but only 27% of the total emissions. Since area sources have a greater influence on VOC than on NOX, emissions of VOC are even more evenly distributed among the density ranges than are those for NOX. The comparison of NAPAP, Trends, and Work Group 3B emissions of SO2 and NO, shows reasonable agreement. NAPAP total S02 emissions are greater than Work Group 3B by 3%, and than Trends by 5.5%. NAPAP and Work Group SB/Trends emissions compare well for all categories except non-utility combustion. The dif- ference in this category is caused by differences' m fuel use, sulfur content, and control efficiency. NAPAP total NO, emissions are greater than Work Group 3B by 11.8%, and than Trends by 4%. The greatest difference between NAPAP and Work Group 3B occurs for electric utilities. Although some of this variation is caused by fuel differences, most is believed to be a result of different emission factors and control efficiencies. The differences be- tween NAPAP and Trends occur for electric utilities, non-utility combustion, and transportation. NAPAP emissions are higher for the first two categories and ------- lower for the last. As was the case for the Work Group 3B comparison, some of the variation is a result-of fuel differences, but most is likely to be caused by different emission factors and control efficiencies. The non-utility combustion variation oc- curs for the same reasons as the variation in utilities, except that non-utilities may be more affected by fuel differences. The transportation variation occurs because more detailed traffic data are used in developing the Trends estimate. Although these detailed traffic data are available on a national basis, very few areas in the nation maintain data with this detail. Thus, insufficient detailed data exist for use in NAPAP. Data Evaluation Version 3.0 of NAPAP represents a detailed inventory of emissions on a national scale; however, it should be noted that additional improvements are planned. Over 80% of the NAPAP emis- sions truly represent 1980. Over 90% are in the range from 1978 to 1981. Future efforts to improve NAPAP will focus on major point sources that currently do not have a 1980 year of record. Emissions of SC>2 and NOX tend to be dominated by relatively few very large sources. The 1,000 largest emitting plants account for about 84% of total S02 emissions. The 1,000 largest emitting plants account for about 42% of total NO, emissions (about 68% of the emissions from all stationary sources). Many of these large emitting facilities are electric utility plants and non-ferrous smelters for which extensive quality assurance efforts have already been performed. A review of the data for other large emitting plants would be desirable. To a limited extent, this activity can be completed using NAPAP resources. In addition, EPA is currently working with selected state agencies to review the top 50 or so largest emitting plants in each state. Results of this effort may also benefit NAPAP. A principal use of the NAPAP inventory will be to support atmospheric long range transport and acid deposition modeling. In addition to emissions estimates, these models need location coordinates and stack parameters for major point sources. Currently, about 80% of point source SO2 and NOX emissions occur at sources with complete stack data and valid UTM co- ordinates. About 2-5% of the sources account for most of the 20% of emissions associated with sources that are lacking some stack parameters or valid coordi- nates. An effort will be made to collect the missing data for these sources. Note that sources with invalid coordinates have at present a default value corresponding to the county centroid. Future Activities Most Task Group B emission inventory resources remaining in FY 84 and FY 85 will be used to try to improve NAPAP to meet the needs of Eulerian modeling activities. The Eulerian models under development require additional pollutants not now in NAPAP, speciation of VOC and NO, emissions, hourly temporal resolu- tion of emissions, and spatial resolution of data into small grid zones covering the entire U.S. (48 states and the District of Columbia). At projected resource levels and the requested time frame (September 1984 for a preliminary data set and September 1985 for the final inventory), the Eulerian modeling requirements for an emissions inventory will have to be met using existing computer software to the extent possible, and perhaps, a number of simplifying assumptions to achieve adequate temporal, spatial, and species resolution of the data. The quality of emissions estimates for additional pollutants to be included may be limited. Additional activities are planned for NAPAP that would support Eulerian modeling, but would be of interest for other purposes as well. These include incorporation of emissions data for Canada into NAPAP, coordination with TaskGroup A to include natural emissions sources into NAPAP, and a statistical evaluation of the uncertainty of NAPAP emissions estimates. Successful comple- tion of these activities depends on the availability of adequate future funding. D. A. Toothman, J. C. Yates, andE. J. Sabo are with Engineering-Science. Fairfax. VA 22030. Charles O. Mann andJ. David Mobley are the EPA Project Officers (see below). The complete report, entitled "Status Report on the Development of the NAPAP Emission Inventory for the 1980 Base Year and Summary of Preliminary Data," (Order No. PB 85-167 930/AS; Cost: $11.50, subject to change) will be available only from: National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield. VA 22161 Telephone: 703-487-4650 The EPA Project Officers can be contacted at: Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Research Triangle Park. NC 27711 AUSGPO: 1985 — 559-111/10812 ------- United States Environmental Protection Agency Official Business Penalty for Private Use $300 Center for Environmental Research Information Cincinnati OH 45268 OCOC329 CHICAGO ------- |