&EFA United States Environmental Protection Agency Robert S. Kerr Environmental Research Laboratory Ada OK 74820 Research and Development EPA-600/S2-82-077 Feb. 1983 Project Summary Optimizing Salinity Control Strategies for the Upper Colorado River Basin Robert G. Evans, Wynn R. Walker, and Gaylord V. Skogerboe Salinity is the most serious water quality problem in the Colorado River Basin. Its impact, felt largely in the Lower Basin, is acute because that basin is approaching conditions of full development and utilization of all available water resources. Current estimates indicate that each mg/l- increase in salinity concentration at Imperial .Dam results in $450,000 annual damages. To offset salinity caused by development of the basin's vast energy supplies, and to allow the seven Colorado River Basin states to fully utilize their allocation of Colorado River water, it is necessary to formu- late cost-effective salinity control strategies for the basin. A simple multi-level nonlinear opti- mization procedure was utilized to formulate the most cost-effective array of salinity control strategies for the Upper Colorado River Basin. The incremental cost-effectiveness meth- odology qualitatively indicates the location and type of alternatives to be implemented in a least-cost basin- wide salinity control program. The results also qualitatively indicate the anticipated salt load reduction and anticipated annual costs of each increment of salinity reduction for any preselected level of control. The analysis was limited to projects designated in PL 93-320 (Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act, June 24, 1974). Costs and salinity contri- butions associated with various alter- natives were generated using January. 1980 estimated conditions. Cost-effectiveness functions were developed for each of the major canals and laterals, the aggregate laterals under each canal, and an array of on- farm improvements for each agri- cultural project area. Similarfunctions also were developed for point sources such as Paradox Valley, Glenwood- Dotsero Springs and Crystal Geyser. Collection and desalination of agricul- tural return flows were also considered. Marginal cost analysis based on current damage estimates indicates that the optimal cost-effective salinity control program in the Upper Basin would cost about $30 million annually and remove about 1.2 million mega- grams of salt per year (one megagram is equal to one metric ton). In addition, it was concluded that maintenance of the 1972 salinity concentration levels at Imperial Dam cannot be cost- effectively achieved and perhaps should be allowed to rise over the 1972 figure by as much as 180 mg/l. Optimal salinity control programs are presented for the individual alter- natives, for individual areas or projects. for the states of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming, as well as for the Upper Colorado River Basin. Sensitivity analysis showed that very large errors in costs and component salt loading would have to be evident to change the optimal salinity control strategy. This Project Summary was devel- oped by EPA's Roberts. Kerr Environ- mental Research Laboratory, Ada. OK, to announce key findings of the research project that is fully docu- ------- mented in a separate report of the same title (see Project Report ordering information at back). Introduction The primary water quality problem in the Colorado River Basin is salinity. This problem tends to be so dominant that it overshadows most other water quality considerations. Fortunately, the salt pollution of the Colorado River by either man-made or natural depletions and/or discharges is not a general health hazard. Salinity is basically an economic problem in which a progressive build-up in concentration toward the lower reaches causes a reduction of the water's utility to urban and agricultural users. The annual total salt burden is about 10 million megagrams (Mgm). Concentrations of salinity in the Colorado River range from less than 50 mg/l in the high mountain head- waters to more than 850 mg/l at Imperial Dam. Further deterioration of Colorado River quality is expected as a result of both water and energy resource development. This deterioration will occur even if salinity reduction measures are instituted, although it would then occur at a slower rate. If no salinity control measures are developed, salinity increases at Imperial Dam will range from 1,150 mg/l to 1,340 mg/l by the year 2000. To date, all salinity control planning has been oriented toward reducing the salt load of the Colorado River; the economics of control have not been of overriding concern. Development of cost-effective programs, or design of construction projects with benefit-cost ratios greater than one, has not had a high priority; although control costs have been compared to estimated annual damages at Imperial Dam. The argument presented in favor of the non- economic approach is that Congress (PL 93-320) mandated certain projects (Figure 1) and that these projects would include specific construction items such as canal linings. However, since that legislation was passed, the results of numerous investigations have become available which permit the formulation of cost-effective salinity control projects. The purpose of Public Law 93-320 was to mitigate salinity increases caused by the individual Colorado River Basin states in developing their respec- tive allowances of water from the Colorado River. Title II of PL 93-320 (Section 207) specifically states that "nothing in this title shall be construed to alter, amend, repeal, modify, inter- pret, or be in conflict with the provi- sions of the Colorado River Compact (45 Stat., 1957), the Upper Colorado River Basin Compact (63 Stat., 31).. ./'orany other compact or agreement and/or any project which allocates the Colorado River as to quantity. PL 93-320, Title II directs the Secre- tary of the Interior to investigate, plan and implement a salinity control program in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The legislation specifically names several projects for construction and further study. The projects in the Upper Colorado River Basin are summarized in Table 1. According to a U.S. Government Accounting Office (GAO) Report in 1979, it is doubtful that the Salinity Control Program as defined in PL 93- 320 will reduce the salt in the Colorado River as much as predicted. Further- more, at least six of the seventeen projects are questionable economically. For example. Crystal Geyser and Las Vegas Wash, as formulated, have very * Authorized Water Development Projects1 A Authorized for Construction Water Quality Improvement Project, Title II A Water Quality Improvement Project \ {Wyoming Under Investigation, Title II i Water Quality Improvement Project, ' •"-^ Transmountain Diversions 'Does not include developments existing Prior to Authorization of Colorado River Storage Project PUEBLO. DENVER AURORA AND iRAOOSPGS IESTAKE RYINOPAN ARKANSAS I DEPENDENCE PASS Nevada SOUTMERI NEVADA WATE1 50 0 Scale 100 200 250 kilometers United States Mexico Figure 1. The Colorado River Basin and salinity control projects designated by PL 93-320. ------- high costs and will have a "minor impact in reducing the river's salinity..." However, the GAO analysis only exam- ined the projects in aggregate as formulated by the U.S. Department of the Interior, and did not address the fact that individual components of a salinity control project may indeed be very cost- effective while a total program may not be economically viable. They did not consider that perhaps only selected portions of various salinity control projects should be constructed, which research has shown to be the case. The primary questions left unan- swered by PL 93-320 are the extent of salinity control programs construction and the degree of effort to be expended in pursuit of the goals of this legislation. For example, without regard to benefits and costs, the Water and Power Re- sources Service (WPRS) presents data illustrated in Figure 2 that indicate the difficulty of maintaining the mandated 1972 salinity levels at Imperial Dam. Preliminary analyses have clearly shown that several of the projects noted in PL 93-320 have benefit-cost ratios much less than one, based on annual damages of $450,000 per mg/l in- crease at Imperial Dam. Aggregate Salinity Control Programs To date, analyses have not been made of salinity control projects in which the most cost-effective strategies and alternatives for implementation in an areawide or basin-wide program were identified. The preceding discussion illustrated the areawide approach, and the following discussion demonstrates the next optimized level of the analysis, which is a basin-wide cost-effective salinity control program. The most cost-effective salinity control program for the Upper Colorado River Basin is presented in Figures 3 and 4. Figure 3 lists the results of this basin-wide level of optimized salinity control by alternative, and Figure 4 indicates the individual state projects included in PL 93-320. Figure 3 shows, on-farm improvements and lateral lining constitute the largest portion of the program. The state of Colorado contains the largest and the most designated salinity control projects, as seen in Figure 4. If each state was required to control its own salinity increases, only Colorado and Utah could do so in a cost-effective manner. It is doubtful if Wyoming could reduce the salinity by, at most, another 25 mg/l from the Blacks Fork and other irrigated areas. Therefore, Wyoming would probably have to resort to large- scale desalination of the river and/or the point sources to achieve its goal. This would be extremely expensive with a downstream damage reduction/cost ratio much less than one. New Mexico is actually expected to overdraw its Colorado River water allocation by 1985. However, agricul- tural salinity control, or a large scale collector-desalination system, would be very costly to implement for widely dispersed areas with relatively low salinity contributions. Figure 5 presents the optimal cost- effective basin-wide salinity control alternatives plotted under the Water and Power Resources Service forecast Table 1. Summary of Salt Loading Attributed to the Various Sources and the Estimated Attainable Salinity Control Levels for Total Programs of Projects Designated by PL 93-320 in the Upper Colorado River Basin Estimated Salt Load mg/l Reduction Reduction Mgm at Imperial Dam Source Total Salt Load Contribution Mgm AGRICULTURAL CONTROL PROJECTS Grand Valley 630,000 Lower Gunnison 800,000 Uncompahgre Valley 350,000 Uintah Basin 395,000 Price -San Rafael Drainage 210,000 Dirty De vil River 52,000 McElmo Creek 85,000 Big Sandy River 125,000 POINT SOURCE CONTROL PROJECTS Paradox Valley 180,000 Glenwood-Dotsero Springs 400,000 Meeker Dome 29,500 Crystal Geyser 2,720 372,000 570,000 220,000' 182.000 50,000 24,000 50,000 81,000 163,000 214,300 29,500 2,720 43 65 25.3 21 7.3 2.8 6.0 9.3 18.7 25.0 3.4 0.3 202.90 'Canal and Lateral Lining Only (USDI, WPRS. 1980c). ^1300r | 120° Q •2 I//00 CQ X 7000 300 I 800- 700 Curve A ____ 1 9 72 Salinity Standard at Imperial Dam 43 Development Projects without Salinity Control Curve A + 4 Authorized Salinity Control Projects (Reduction of 575,300 Mgm) Curve B+13 Salinity Con- trol Projects under Study (Reduction of 1,710.000 Mgm) (Need Reduction of 2,570,000 Mgm) 1980 2000 2000+ Figure 2. 1990 Year Salinity increase at Imperial Dam projected by the Water and Power Resources Service (USDI, BR, 1979d). ------- curve of salinity increase at Imperial Dam. As can be seen, almost all of the salinity control projects except agricul- tural desalination should be imple- mented by 1985. Fortunately, the salinity increases have not followed this curve and are presently at a somewhat lower level than the 879 mg/l annual average which occurred-in 1972. This has been due partially to delayed construction of projects, delayed energy resources development, and some relatively high runoff years. The 1980 average annual value is estimated to be 802 mg/l. However, present indications are that the projected rapid increases have been offset at most by about 10 years, and that all of the cost-effective projects should be on-line at the latest by 1995. In other words, it is expected that the salinity concentration at Imperial Dam will again reach the 1972 levels by 1985. If the January, 1980 damage cost of $450,000/mg/l at Imperial Dam is accepted as a true cost, then it is possible to assess the damage costs of increased salinity concentrations due to delaying construction of the salinity control program. For example, using the 1985 salinity levels from Figure 5(210 mg/l increase) for comparison, and if only one-fourth of the necessary salinity control is constructed at that time, then the annual costs of the delay are about $71 million. Correspondingly, if only one-third is complete, the delay cost is about $63.3 million annually. This also assumes that the 1972 level of 879 mg/l should be maintained. Conclusions 1. The conceptual model, simple nonlinear optimization and the resulting array of cost-effective salinity control strategies for the Upper Basin represent and illus- trate the use of an easily used environmental quality planning tool. 2. Cost-effective salinity control strategies to compensate for new resource development or water transfers into or out of the basin which affect salinity can be easily developed and evaluated. 3. As new data become available or changes in political attitudes or directives may dictate, the opti- mal salinity control strategies can be easily and continually updated and re-evaluated. 4. The methodology and results indicate with a fair degree of O Q I 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30-i- 20 10 0 5 I I I c o 1 11 .5 ^J CO -J $45O.^pg/jrig/l_atJmperial D, \/ Glenwood Dotsero Springs Paradox By-Pass Canal Lining Sublette Flats, Wyoming-* Lateral Linings On-Farm Improvements 1200 1600 -t- 2000 2400 2800 Salt Load Reduction, Mgm x 10-3 Figure 3. Optimal Upper Colorado River Basin salinity control by alternatives. 110r 400 800 1200 1600 2000 Salt Load Reduction, Mgm x 10-3 2400 2800 Figure 4. Optimal Upper Colorado River Basin salinity control program delineated by state. 4 ------- 1200 I •2 I"00 I e/ooo Q 300 WPFtS Forecast Curve A \ Desalination Canal Linings • Glenwood Dotsero Springs Paradox By-Pass Lateral Linings ^•Sublette Flats. Wyoming On-Farm Improvements 879 mg/l 1972 1975 1980 1985 Year 1990 1995 2000 Figure 5. Cost-effective implementation strategy for optimal level of salinity control alternatives in the Upper Colorado River Basin. certainty the priority and magni- tude of control for each alter- native, for each area, and for the basin-wide PL 93-320 salinity control program. 5. Some degree of on-farm improve- ments and lateral linings are cost-effective in every agricul- tural area examined in the Upper Basin. However, this work must be accompanied by greatly in- creased technical assistance to the growers by the implementing agency and/or extension per- sonnel. These programs are the most cost-effective, and better information and/or data are not likely to affect their implemen- tation as a salinity control mea- sure. 6. All lining of the laterals and 58 percent of the on-farm improve- ments (cutback irrigation) in the Grand Valley should be construc- ted before lining any of the Government Highline Canal. In fact, some on-farm and lateral linings should be done in all agricultural areas before canal lining is initiated. 7. At current damage estimates of $450,0007mg/l at Imperial Dam, only about 57 percent of the canals in the Grand Valley should be lined. The Grand Valley has the most canals to be lined of any area at this level of damages. 8. Most of the on-farm, lateral lining, and the very small canal (actually smaller than many laterals) lining salinity control program should be constructed in the Lower Gunnison area before canal linings are initiated. 9. Programs in the Uintah Basin, Price-San Rafael Rivers, Muddy Creeks, and McElmo Creek will basically consist of on-farm and lateral linings with very little canal lining. 10. The use of canals for winter livestock water causes substan- tial salt loading from several areas in the basin and contri- butes numerous problems of local waterlogging and soil sali- nation. 11. The barrier well network and Sublette Flat evaporation area as proposed by the USDA, Soil Conservation Service, and mini- mal on-farm improvements are the most cost-effective salinity program for the Big Sandy area in Wyoming. The "buy-out" alter- native as proposed by some local landowners was evaluated and found not cost-effective. 12. Collection and reverse osmosis desalination of agricultural return flows should be included as a viable salinity control alternative in all irrigated areas. However, at current estimates of downstream damages, desalination would not be implemented. 13. The by-pass alternative for the Paradox Valley was evaluated and found to be more cost- effective than the proposed Radi- um evaporation pond alternative. This was primarily due to the greatly increased costs of evapo- ration ponds. 14. The proposed desalination of the Glenwood-Dotsero Springs in Colorado was evaluated in detail as part of this study. It was concluded that the most econom- ical alternative was a primary reverse osmosis plant followed by a much smaller secondary multi-stage flash distillation unit. However, at current average damage estimates, this project is marginally feasible. 15. The use of average costs per mg/l of treatment is misleading and should not be used in the delineation or phasing of salinity control projects. 16. At current average damage esti- mates, it is cost-effective to treat only about 48 to 50 percent of the total attainable salt load reduc- tion from the projects designated in PL 93-320. 17. All of this analysis points to the fact that the arbitrary target of maintaining 1972 salinity levels at Imperial Dam cannot be cost- effectively attained. In fact, these results indicate that the target level should be increased to about 1,030 or 1,040 mg/l or more. 18. Present trends indicate that all of the cost-effective salinity control programs should be on- line no later than 1995. The increased damage costs due to delayed construction of these projects can be substantial. 19. Sensitivity analysis of the data and the optimization procedure indicate that substantial error in costs and the respective salt load contributions of the individual alternatives would have to occur to change the optimal order of implementation of a basin-wide salinity control program. Recommendations 1. Desired levels of salinity control must be determined and imple- mented as soon as possible since they will dictate the type and extent of many of the alterna- tives. This is especially true for on-farm improvements. ------- 2. Because on-farm improvements and lateral linings are cost- effective in all of the irrigated areas examined in this analysis, the list of areas included in PL 93-320 should be expanded. These basic on-farm improve- ments should be implemented in all of the agricultural areas as the initial most cost-effective salinity control program. 3. The Soil Conservation Service, the Extension Service and the other technical agencies involved in salinity control should make a long-term commitment of ade- quate technical assistance to the growers. The on-going work in the Grand Valley clearly indi- cates the need for this type of program. Recruiting and training personnel for this type of activity will be necessary. 4. On-farm improvement and lateral lining programs consistent with selected levels of basin-wide salinity control should be started as soon as possible in all of the irrigated areas. 5. The Sublette Flats evaporation area and a network of barrier wells and a minimal on-farm improvement program should be initiated as the total salinity control program for the Big Sandy area in Wyoming. 6. The use of canals and laterals for winter livestock water should be eliminated, if dependable alter- native water supplies such as rural water districts or ground- water could be developed. 7. Design and construction of the by-pass alternative for the Para- dox Valley salt source should begin as soon as possible. In addition, it may be necessary to construct a series of small wells to intercept some of the ground- water inflow to the salt dome- brine interface. 8. A salinity damage function is presently being developed under contract to the Water and Power Resources Service. When this information becomes available, the feasibility of maintaining the 1972 salinity concentration levels at Imperial Dam should be re- evaluated. 9. Results of this analysis indicate the advisability of implementing the identified most cost-effective salinity control program regard- less of where or which state the salinity increases occurred. Colo- rado will contain the major programs, and these projects will serve to counterbalance salinity increases in other areas, Physi- cally, Wyoming would not be able to control its own salinity in- creases. 10. The scope of the LowerGunnison project should be expanded by the Water and Power Resources Service to include all of the irrigated lands in the area, and not be restricted to only the Uncompahgre Project lands. The canal and lateral lining program proposed by the WPRS is not cost-effective and should be re- evaluated. The possibilities for gravity-powered sprinkler sys- tems and closed conduit canal and lateral linings in the North Fork of the Gunnison River should be examined. 11. There is a definite need to obtain a better data base for several of the areas, especially McElmo Creek in southwestern Colorado. The groundwater base flows in the Lower Gunnison, McElmo Creek and the Uintah Basin require further effort. Seepage rate data for canals and laterals in project areas are lacking. These data should be collected to define the most cost-effective incremental canal and lateral lining programs for each area. 12. Studies should be initiated in the Price-San Rafael, Uintah, McElmo and Lower Gunnison areas to determine the relative magni- tude of the natural salt contri- bution for each irrigated area. This information would be nec- essary to delineate the more exact cost-effectiveness func- tions prior to undertaking a construction program. Robert G. Evans is with Washington State University, Prosser, WA 99350; Wynn R. Walker is with Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322; and Gaylord V. Skogerboe is with Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523. James P. Law, Jr., is the EPA Project Officer (see below). The complete report, entitled "Optimizing Salinity Control Strategies for the Upper Colorado River Basin," (Order No. PB 83-136 143; Cost: $19.00, subject to change) will be available only from: National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 Telephone: 703-487-4650 The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at: Robert S. Kerr Environmental Research Laboratory U.S. Environmental Protection Agency P.O. Box 1198 Ada, OK 74820 ------- United States Environmental Protection Agency Center for Environmental Research Information Cincinnati OH 45268 Postage and Fees Paid Environmental Protection Agency EPA 335 Official Business Penalty for Private Use $300 ------- |