United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Environmental Research
Laboratory
Athens G A 30613
Research and Development
EPA-6CX)/S3-82-031 Sept. 1983
Project Summary
Resource and Environmental
Impacts of Trends in U.S.
Agriculture
P. Crosson and S. Brubaker
Trends in demand for agricultural
production and agricultural technology
in the United States suggest increasing
pressure on the nation's land and
water resources over the next several
decades. The expected consequences
would be rising economic costs of
production and damages to the envi-
ronment. This study analyzes these
trends, assesses their economic and
environmental impacts, and discusses
policies for dealing with their impacts.
The quantities of land, water, and
other resources farmers use to increase
production depend basically on the
kinds of technologies they employ.
Two categories of technology are
distinguished — land-using technolo-
gies and land-saving technologies.
Farmers' choices from the spectrum
of technologies are conditioned by the
prices and productivities of the
alternatives. The present trend to
land-using technologies should con-
tinue if energy and fertilizer prices
increase as expected.
Analysis of trends indicates that an
additional 60 to 70 million acres will
be brought into production by 2010
and that erosion will emerge as the
most serious environmental problem
of agriculture. Erosion on the projected
scale would pose a significant threat
to national water quality as well as to
the productivity of the land. A slower
rise in inputs of fertilizer per acre is
expected and the total quantity of
insecticide applied to crops should
decline. Herbicide use is expected to
decrease markedly.
More effective programs to gain
farmer cooperation in controlling
erosion may be required along with
research to develop new technologies
that serve both the farmers' economic
interest and the social interest in
reducing environmental damages.
Development of improved land-saving
technologies, such as a higher yielding
variety of soybean, would reduce
pressure on the land.
This Project Summary was developed
by EPA's Environmental Research
Laboratory, Athens, GA, to announce
key findings of the research project
that is fully documented in a separate
report of the same title (see Project
Report ordering information at back).
Introduction
The future resource and environmen-
tal impacts of agricultural expansion in
the United States depend fundamentally
upon the growth of agricultural produc-
tion, the kinds of technologies farmers
employ, and the policies adopted in
response to resulting resource and
environmental problems. This study
deals with these three key components
of the emerging agricultural situation.
The period covered extends to 2010.
Projections of Agricultural
Production
The focus is on wheat, feedgrains,
soybeans and cotton. These crops
consistently account for 70 to 75
percent of the land harvested in the
United States and for high percentages
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of the fertilizers and pesticides applied.
Moreover, if the growth of agricultural
production in the United States puts
substantial pressure on the resource
base and environment, it will be
because of the growth of production of
these crops, particularly in response to
export demand. Production of all other
commodities will grow primarily in
response to United States population
growth, expected to be less than 1
percent annually over the next several
decades.
The projections are shown in Table 1.
Those for 2010 for grains and soybeans
were made in three steps: (1) project
growth in world trade in each commodity;
(2) project the United States percentage
of trade; and (3) project domestic use.
The projections for cotton were derived
separately from a study by the U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The projections of domestic demand
for feedgrains make no special allowance
for use of corn to produce ethanol for
combination with gasoline to make
gasohol. Gasohol is presently competi-
tive with gasoline only because it is
heavily subsidized by exemption from
federal and state gasoline taxes. The
climate for federal and state fiscal
policies suggests that these subsidies
may be reduced, if not eliminated. More
important over the long run, a number
of studies indicate that by the end of the
century, or even before, coal likely will
be a more economical source of liquid
fuel than ethanol from grain.
The projections to 2010 make no
explicit allowance for changes in prices.
However, the USDA projections to 1985
and 1990 incorporate increases in real
prices from 1979 levels. The trajectory
of these projections fits well with that of
the projections to 2010. We assume,
therefore, that the 2010 projections are
consistent with some increase in real
prices of commodities but we do not
specify the amount of increase.
Farmers' Choices Among
Technology
Two categories of technology are
distinguished: (1) land-saving (low ratio
of land to non-land inputs); and (2) land-
using (high ratio of land to non-land
inputs). We think of technologies as
lying along a spectrum from land-
saving at one end to land-using at the
other.
Farmers' choices from the spectrum
are determined fundamentally by the
relative prices and productivities of the
alternatives. From the end of World War
II until the early 1970s, low prices of
energy, fertilizer and irrigation water
combined with high productivity of
these inputs to favor land-saving
technologies. The quantities of these
inputs rose rapidly and the amount of
Table 1. U.S. Production. Export, and Domestic Use of Wheat, Feedgrains and Cotton. 1978/80 and Projections to 1985, 1990
and 2010 (millions metric tons)
RFF: 2010
U.S. Share
Wheat
Prod.
Export
Dom. Use
1978
48.3
32.5
22.8
1979
58.1
37.4
21.3
1980
64.5
41.5
22.9
Average
1978/80
57.0
37.1
22.3
USDA
1985
67.6
42.4
25.2
1990
77.1
50.4
26.7
Constant
(D
98
70
28
(2)
100
72
28
Reduced
(1)
84
56
28
(2)
85
57
28
Feedgrains*
Prod.
Export
Dom. Use
Soybeans
Prod.
Export\
Dom. Use
222.1
60.2
157.2
50.9
27.7
23.5
238.8
71.4
161.9
61.7
32.9
23.7
198.7
74.3
155.8
49.4
29.5
24.0
219.9
68.6
158.3
54.0
30.0
23.7
253.7
81.0
172.7
61.7
27.8
33.9
282.0
97.1
184.9
72.1
33.8
38.3
354
167
187
120
76
44
428
241
187
129
85
44
316
129
187
104
60
44
372
185
187
112
68
44
Cotton
Prod.
Export
Dom. Use
2.4
1.4
1.3
3.2
2.0
1.4
2.4
1.2
1.2
2.7
1.5
1.3
2.6
1.1
1.5
2.7
1.2
1.5
(share not calculated)
3.5-3.9
Sources: 1978-1980 from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). 1985 and 1990. USDA projections provided by Leroy Quance,
done in the summer of 1980. The projections are preliminary and not official.
The RFF projections to 2010 are by Pierre Crosson. Constant U.S. shares means that the U.S. maintains the same percentage of
world trade in the various commodities as in 1976/79; share reduced means a smaller percentage, as described in the text. The
columns (1) assume that the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Community remains unchanged. The columns (2) assume
that the policy is changed to permit more imports.
For 1978-80 the difference between production and the sum of exports and domestic use is the change in stocks. In the
projections, stock changes are assumed to be zero.
* Corn and sorghum for grain, oats and barley.
•\The USDA projections are beans only. The 1978-80 figures are RFF projections to 2010 are beans plus soybean meal and oil
exports converted to the bean equivalent.
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cropland declined. Both crop yields and
total productivity rose at unprecedented
rates.
Since the early 1970s, real prices of
energy and fertilizer have risen. The rise
in energy prices increased the cost of
pumping water for irrigation, and
increasing competition for water for
non-agricultural uses in the West
increased the opportunity cost of the
resource. Farmers shifted toward more
land-using technologies. The amount of
cropland increased over 50 million
acres from 1972 to 1980 and the ratio of
non-land inputs to land rose more
slowly than in the two previous decades.
The rate of increase of crop yields and
total productivity slowed dramatically.
Between 1980 and 2010, real prices
of energy and fertilizer are expected to
rise and rising pumping costs and
opportunity costs should make irrigation
water in the West more expensive.
There is considerable potential for
expanded irrigation in the Mississippi
Delta and, to a lesser extent in Georgia
and Florida. Nonetheless, rising real
costs of energy and fertilizer and of
western irrigation would favor more
land-using technologies in the future as
they have in the 1970s, unless new
land-saving technologies are developed
and adopted by farmers.
Trends in Productivity and
Crop Yields
The assertion that the trend of crop
yields and total productivity slowed in
the 1970s can be challenged. The
evidence shown in Table 2 strongly
supports the assertion. In every year
from 1973 to 1980, except productivity
in 1975, both yields and total productivity
fell short of the trend values established
in 1950 to 1972. In 1978 the weather
was highly favorable in major crop
producing regions, and in 1979 it was
even better. Crop yields set successive
records in those two years. Their failure
to match trend values of yields, there-
fore, is especially strong evidence that
the trend slowed after 1972.
Analysis of trends in yields of corn
and soybeans in the Corn Belt and of
wheat in the Plains States supports this
conclusion for corn and wheat but not
for soybeans. After adjustment for
effects of weather, soybean yields in the
Corn Belt continued to increase at the
trend rate set in 1950 to 1972. Weather,
however, does not explain slower
growth in corn and wheat yields. Two
other factors bearing on the trend of
yields of these crops were examined:
expansion of cropping to inferior land
and improvements in technology.
It was concluded that expansion of
the amount of land in wheat would have
slowed the increase of wheat yields, but
that this could not account for more
than 10 percent of the difference
between actual wheat yields and the
trend values of yields. The two principal
elements of technology examined were
fertilizer use per acre and irrigation. Per
acre application of fertilizer to wheat
land increased more slowly after 1972
and this would have slowed the increase
in yields. The percentage of wheat land
fertilized before and after 1972, however,
is not enough for this to have been very
important. Precise data are lacking, but
it is known that irrigation continued to
expand in major wheat growing areas
after 1972. So, irrigation does not
explain the slower growth of wheat
yields. No satisfactory explanation for
this behavior is known.
The expansion of the amount of land
in corn apparently explains a major part
of the shortfall in corn yields. Slower
growth in fertilizer application per acre
also played a role, but irrigation
evidently did not.
On balance, there is no conclusive
evidence that slower growth of yields
and total productivity after 1972 was
owed to declining productivity potential
of the technologies that farmers em-
ployed. There clearly is no evidence,
however, that this potential was increas-
ing. There is no reason, therefore, to
expect the productivity of present
technologies to rise fast enough to
offset the prospective higher prices of
energy, fertilizer and water. In this case,
the trends of productivity and crop
yields established in the 1970s are
better guides to future trends than the
trends established before the 1970s.
The implication is that to meet the
projected levels of crop production
farmers will have to bring in much
additional cropland.
The Demand for and Supply
of Cropland
The demand for cropland in the ten
USDA producing regions was projected
in two steps. First, regional shares of
production of wheat, feedgrains, soy-
beans and cotton were projected on the
basis of historical shares, with a few
exceptions. The share of Texas in cotton
production has been increasing for
some years at the expense of the
Southeast and the Mississippi Delta.
This reflects important economic ad-
vantages of Texas, particularly in pest
management, and is expected to con-
7able 2.
Indexes of Crop Yields and Total Agricultural Productivity in the U.S.
(1967=100)
Yields
Productivity
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
Actual
102
99
100
105
110
104
112
118
113
103
110
110
115
119
126
114
Trend*
99
101
103
1O6
108
110
112
114
117
119
121
123
126
128
130
132
Actual
Minus
Trend
3
-3
-3
-1
2
-6
0
4
-4
-16
-11
-13
-11
-9
-4
-18
Actual
1OO
97
100
1O2
103
102
110
110
111
105
115
115
114
116
119
115
Trend*
97
99
101
1O3
104
106
108
110
112
113
115
117
119
121
122
124
Actual
Minus
Trend
3
-2
-1
-1
-1
-4
2
0
-1
-8
0
-2
-5
-3
-3
-9
Average deviation from Trend
Average deviation from Trend
1950-1972: 2.9
1973-1980: 12.5
*Trend of actual data in 1950-1972.
1950-1972: 1.7
1973-1980: 5.5
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tinue. The potential for irrigation in
the Delta and Southeast is expected to
increase those region's shares of
soybean production at the expense of
the Corn Belt. Doublecropping of wheat
with soybeans also will increase their
shares of wheat land at the expense of
the Northern Plains.
The second step was to project crop
yields. This was done on the general
assumption that yield trends in the
1970s provide the best guide to future
yields, except for soybeans for which
the trends established since 1950 were
used.
Dividing the regional projections of
production by regional projections of
yields gave projections of the demand for
cropland by region. For the nation as a
whole, 477 million acres of cropland
would be demanded by 2010. In 1977
there were 413 million acres, according
to the National Resources Inventory
(NRI) published by the Soil Conservation
Service. The NRI showed that there
were 125 million acres of land in
pasture, forest and range with economic
potential for conversion to crops,
suggesting an ample supply to accom-
modate the projected increase in
demand. However, urban and other
non-agricultural uses will claim 25 to
30 million acres of cropland and
potential cropland between 1977 and
2010. The land now in pasture, forest
and range with potential for crops,
therefore, would have to accommodate
additional cropland and non-agricultural
demands of 90 to 95 million acres. We
expect this could not be done without a
significant increase in the real economic
cost of agricultural land.
The Demand for Fertilizer and
Pesticides
The continuing adoption by farmers
of land-using technologies implies that
per acre applications of fertilizers will
rise generally in the pattern established
in the 1970s, which was much slower
than in the 1950s and 1960s. By the
end of the 1970s most farmers showed
close to optimal per acre uses of
fertilizers. If fertilizer prices rise as
expected, farmers will have strong
incentive to use fertilizer more sparingly.
There are several ways to do this, e.g.,
improved knowledge of the amount of
naturally occurring nitrogen made
available by mineralization, split applica-
tions to time more closely the availability
of nutrients to the plants'need for them,
slow release fertilizer and nitrification
inhibitors to reduce nitrogen losses to
leaching and volatilization.
Since the late 1960s the amount of
organochlorine insecticides used has
declined sharply and the amount of
organophosphorous and carbamate
compounds increased. The organochlo-
rines generally are not highly toxic to
mammals but they persist for long
periods. The organophosphorous and
carbamate compounds generally are
acutely toxic but relatively non-persis-
tent. The switch from the organochlo-
rine began because of increasing
resistance of cotton insects to the
materials and was hastened by EPA
banning principal organochlorines,
beginning with DDT in 1972.
The future amounts of insecticides
used by farmers will depend heavily on
trends in use on cotton and corn. In
1976, 40 percent of all insecticides
used on crops were used on cotton and
another 20 percent were used on corn.
Two trends suggest that the amount
of insecticides used on cotton will
decline over the next several decades.
One is the continuing shift of cotton
production from the Southeast and
Mississippi Delta to Texas. In Texas,
integrated pest management (IPM)
based on a short season variety of
cotton and complementary insect
management practices makes it possible
to achieve satisfactory insect control
with a small per acre use of insecticides.
By comparison, per acre use in the
Southeast and Delta is several times
higher. The continuing shift of cotton
production to Texas will lower average
use of insecticides even if per acre
amounts used in all three regions
remain the same.
But IPM is spreading also in the Delta
and the Southeast, indicating that per
acre use of insecticides on cotton will
decline in those regions also. Growing
conditions in those regions are more
favorable to insects and yields are
higher. Both conditions suggest that per
acre use of insecticides will continue
higher than in Texas. Some decline is
likely, however.
IPM is less well developed to control
insects of corn, and may have less
potential. The principal insect pest of
corn is the rootworm which, being a soil
dwelling organism, is not so readily
controlled by IPM, at least as currently
practiced. Nonetheless, the use of
"scouts" to provide better information
about when and how much to spray to
control corn insects is spreading and
should lead to a decline in per acre
amounts of insecticides.
The prospective decline in per acre
amounts of insecticides applied to
cotton and corn implies a decline intotal
amount of insecticides used on crops,
unless amounts used on wheat and
soybeans increase dramatically. Neither
wheat nor soybeans presently are
seriously threatened by insects and
amounts of insecticides applied to these
crops are low. The prospective relative
shift of soybeans to the Mississippi
Delta and Southeast may result in a
doubling in the total amount of insecti-
cides used on soybeans, but this would
be far more than offset by the decreased
use on cotton and corn. On balance, a
significant decline is expected over the
next several decades.
The use of herbicides, however, is
expected to increase substantially, both
because of the expansion of cropland
and increasing per acre applications
associated with the spread of conserva-
tion tillage. Conservation tillage means
a variety of tillage technologies with
three characteristics in common: (1)
they use some implement other than
the moldboard plow to prepare the
seedbed, (2) they leave enough crop
residue on the land to significantly
reduce erosion, and (3) they rely more
on herbicides and less on cultivation
than conventional tillage to control
weeds.
Conservation tillage expanded rapidly
after the mid-1960s and in 1980 it was
used on about one-quarter of the
nation's cropland. With conservation
tillage non-land costs per acre are
roughly 5 to 10 percent less than with
conventional tillage. Thus, where yields
are comparable, conservation tillage
has an economic advantage over
conventional tillage. In general, yields
are comparable on reasonably well
drained soils where the growing season
is not too short and where weeds can be
adequately controlled with herbicides.
These conditions are widely enough
met that conservation tillage probably
would be economical on 50 to 60
percent of cropland even if there are no
technical breakthroughs, e.g., that
would make yrelds comparable to those
of conventional tillage on poorly drained
soils.
Environmental Impacts
The prospective increases in resources
used by farmers indicate that damages
to the environment may rise. Four types
of damage are considered: (1) effects of
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fertilizer on water quality, (2) effects of
pesticides on unintended targets, (3)
salinity resulting from irrigation, and (4)
erosion.
Data are inadequate for warranted
quantification of these damages. Instead,
we make judgments of whether the
damages are likely to increase from
present levels and, if so, whether the
increase likely would call for new
policies.
Fertilizer
The principal environmental damages
of fertilizers are to human and animal
health from nitrate-IM in ground and
surface water and from nitrogen and
phosphorus in accelerating eutrophica-
tion of lakes, reservoirs and other still
bodies of water.
Except occasionally in some streams
in the Midwest, nitrate-N concentrations
in surface waters are less than the 10
ppm standard set by the U.S. Public
Health Service. This is true also of
groundwater except for some "hot
spots" in California and Nebraska. The
projections of nitrogen fertilizer use,
taking account of improved practices
and materials in reducing losses,
suggest a nationwide increase of
perhaps 30 percent in nitrate-N entering
ground and surface waters. Given •
present nitrate-N concentrations in
these waters, this is not a seriously
threatening increase. In some regions,
however, particularly where irrigated
production on sandy soils is likely to
increase (parts of the Southeast and
Northern Plains), the projected increases
in nitrogen applied and consequent
losses may give cause for concern.
Phosphorus typically is the critical
nutrient accelerating eutrophication.
Municipal and industrial wastes provide
more phosphorus to surface waters
than agriculture. These wastes are
expected to decline more than enough
to offset any increase in agriculture's
contribution of phosphorus.
Pesticides
The projected decline in the quantity
of insecticides applied implies a lessen-
ing of the environmental damages from
these materials. The substitution of
synthetic pyrethroids for organophos-
phorous compounds also should ease
the problem. The pyrethroids are not
toxic to mammals. They may be highly
toxic to fish, but they are used in such
small quantity and are so quickly
dissipated that the probability of their
reaching water bodies in significant
amount is low.
Although the organophosphorous
and carbamate compounds are more
toxic than the organochlorines they are
replacing, the change may not imply
increased environmental damage. The
organophosphorous and carbamate
materials are much less persistent than
the organochlorines and do not accumu-
late in body tissue. These are strongly
positive factors. And the acute toxicity
of the organophosphates and carba-
mates may actually make it easier to
control damages from these materials.
Because the damages are immediate
and obvious, design of practices to
assure safe use and to fix responsibility
for misuse is facilitated.
Present evidence does not suggest
that the prospective large increase in
use of herbicides is cause for major
concern. Most herbicides are not toxic
to animals and studies of their effects
on soil microorganisms show no lasting
damage. Not all pathways by which
herbicides may impact on the-environ-
ment have been investigated, but based
on present knowledge the greater use of
herbicides is not so threatening as to
require measures to prevent it.
Salinity with irrigation
The buildup of salt on irrigated land
and in irrigation return flow already is
a problem in parts of the arid West,
particularly in the lower Colorado River
basin and in California. The problem is
endemic in arid areas where irrigation
is used. It can be contained, however.
One possibility is construction of
evaporation ponds or drains to remove
excessively salt-laden waters. There
also are various management practices
which reduce evaporation losses, thus
permitting achievement of given yields
with less water and less residual salt.
Development of more salt resistant crop
varieties also holds promise.
These various alternatives should
hold the salinity problem within accept-
able limits over the next several
decades.
Erosion
Erosion impairs water quality, pollutes
the air and damages the productivity of
the land. In 1977, sheet and rill erosion
(i.e. by water) from cropland was 1.9
million tons. Erosion by wind in the
Plains States was 900 million tons.
On a per acre basis, sheet and rill
erosion of cropland was 4.7 tons and
total erosion was 6.8 tons, 1.8 tons
more than the maximum consistent
with maintaining the productivity of the
land, according to the SCS.
There are no good estimates of either
the off-farm or on-farm (productivity)
damages of erosion. Whatever the
latter may have been, they were
masked by the strong advance of
technology in the 35 years following the
end of World War II.
The projections of production and
cropland indicate that sheet and rill
erosion would increase from 1.9 billion
tons in 1977 to 3.5 billion tons in 2010.
No attempt was made to project wind
erosion. Erosion per acre of cropland
would rise from 4.7 tons to 7.4 tons.
Sediment delivered from cropland to
the nation's surface waters would
about double.
It was believed that erosion on the
projected scale would be viewed as
significantly worse than at present and
as a problem of major national concern.
By comparison with it, the problems of
fertilizer and pesticide pollution and of
salinity would be judged of secondary
importance.
Policy Issues
The Federal Government has taken
three approaches to control environ-
mental impacts of agriculture. One, the
oldest, assigns responsibility to the
Department of Agriculture for programs
to control erosion. The prime objective
has been soil conservation to protect
the productivity of the land, so these
programs have not been concerned
with environmental quality, strictly
defined. However, soil conservation
often benefits water quality, and in any
case, in this discussion, environmental
quality incorporates the productivity
dimension.
The second approach has been
through Section 208 of the Federal
Water Pollution Control Act. The
purpose of Section 208 is to improve
water quality by controlling non-point
sources of pollution. The EPA has
principal responsibility for programs
under Section 208.
The third approach is for control of
pesticides under the Federal Insecticide,
Fungicide and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA)
as amended. This act gives the EPA
authority to suspend or ban pesticides
found to threaten environmental dam-
ages greater than the benefits of these
materials. The EPA's actions can be
challenged in the courts, but the record
shows that its authority under FIFRA is
substantial. It should be quite adequate
-------
to deal with future environmental
threats of pesticides.
Under Section 208 each state has
drawn up a plan (or plans) to deal with
non-point pollution. The EPA Adminis-
trator must approve the plans. So far the
plans have relied overwhelmingly upon
voluntary measures of the sort long
promoted by the USDA to secure farmer
cooperation in measures to reduce
erosion. Because the objective of these
measures was to protect productivity,
they are not always optimal for the
water quality objective specified in
Section 208.
To induce voluntary cooperation, the
USDA programs share the cost of
erosion control measures with the
farmer. The past performance of the
programs has been criticized for not
being targeted on the farmers causing
the most erosion and for funding
productivity improvements rather than
just protecting against erosion damage.
Whatever the limitations of these
programs in the past, they likely will
be much more limited in dealing with
future erosion if it emerges on the
projected level. If properly targeted, the
voluntary approach may give satisfactory
results at reasonable cost when com-
modity prices are low and farmers'
incentives for intensive use of the land
correspondingly weak. In the projected
scenario, however, commodity prices
are relatively high, giving strong incentive
to use the land intensively. In these
circumstances, cost-sharing programs
to induce farmers to adopt conservation
programs on the necessary scale may
be prohibitively expensive.
The voluntary approach likely will
appear inadequate in these circum-
stances. Section 208 authorizes the
EPA to take stronger measures to
achieve water quality objectives. Where
erosion is the main threat, regulations
limiting the amount of soil loss or a soil
loss tax are possibilities. Such measures
could leave the design of control
practices to the farmer, but they would
hold him responsible for compliance
under the threat of court action.
The EPA thus would apply the
"polluter pays" principle to farmers just
as it now does to industrial and
municipal polluters. Application of the
principle, however, would run against
the long tradition of how the Federal
Government deals with farmers to
control erosion. Although the principle
clearly applies to controlling off-farm
effects, its departure from tradition
likely would arouse strong opposition
from farmers. Its political and adminis-
trative costs likely would be high.
Moreover, the principle is not appro-
priate for dealing with productivity
effects of erosion. While control to
protect water quality often will benefit
productivity also, this is not necessarily
the case. Where productivity is threat-
ened and water quality is not, the legal
basis for non-voluntary approaches is
weak, if not non-existent.
It is likely that the voluntary and
regulatory approaches, taken singly or
in some combination, will prove in-
adequate to deal with both the water
quality and productivity damages of
erosion if these emerge on the projected
scale. Alternative approaches should be
considered. One is a research strategy
to develop technologies which will
simultaneously serve the farmers'
economic interest in meeting rising
demand and society's interest in limiting
erosion damages. Two lines of techno-
logical development satisfy these condi-
tions. One is to find inexpensive high
yielding substitutes for fossil fuels,
chemical fertilizers and irrigation water
since it is the rising cost of these inputs
which pushes farmers to adopt land-
using technologies. And the spread of
these technologies is the principal
cause of the large projected increase in
erosion. Research to improve photo-
synthetic efficiency in main crops and to
build nitrogen fixing capacity in corn
could eventually develop new, econom-
ically competitive land-saving techno-
logies.
The other line of research would aim
at extending the economic limits of
conservation tillage, making it possible
to contain the erosion costs of bringing
more fragile lands under crops. Devel-
opment of seed varieties that perform
well in poorly drained soil would help to
overcome present limits of conservation
tillage, as would new herbicides or
application techniques *to deal with
weeds now controlled only by deep
plowing and cultivation. And a short
season variety of corn would extend the
northern limits of conservation tillage.
A research strategy to develop tech-
nologies of the sort described would not
be a substitute for traditional voluntary
programs to control erosion or for
stringent regulatory approaches where
these are appropriate and feasible. Over
the long term, however — and the
erosion problem is long term — a
research strategy could be a valuable
supplement to other programs. Its great
strength is that it seeks to harmonize
the farmer's interest and society's
interest in the use of land, not by
payment of expensive subsidies or the
threat of legal sanctions, but through
the economic forces of the market
place. One need not have a philosophical
preference for market solutions to
recognize the market's advantages in
flexibility and speed of response com-
pared with management by government
intervention. But the market solution
* will be acceptable only if it serves
society's interest in erosion control as
well as the farmer's interest in produc-
tion. A carefully conceived and sustained
research program to develop economi-
cally attractive technologies along the
lines specified could be the socially
most efficient way to achieve this
coincidence of interest.
P. Crosson and S. Brubaker are with Resources for the Future, Washington, DC
20036.
G. W. Bailey is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
The complete report, entitled "Resource and Environmental Impacts of Trends in
U. S. Agriculture," (Order No. PB 83-200 634; Cost: $20.50, subject to change)
will be available only from:
National Technical Information Service
5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, VA 22161
Telephone: 703-487-4650
The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
Environmental Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
College Station Road
Athens, GA 30613
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