United States
 Environmental Protection
 Agency
Environmental Research
Laboratory
Athens GA 30613
 Research and Development
EPA-600/S3-82-046  Sept. 1982
 Project  Summary
 Executive Summary  for the
 Hydrological  Simulation
 Program  FORTRAN  (HSPF)

 G. P. Grimsrud, D. D. Franz, R. C. Johanson, and N. H. Crawford
  This executive summary introduces
water resource managers, engineers,
and programmers to the Hydrological
Simulation Program —FORTRAN
(HSPF)  and  provides them  with
information that can help them in
deciding whether HSPF would  be
useful and practical for them to use.
HSPF  uses  digital  computers  to
simulate hydrology and water quality
in natural and  man-made  systems.
Although data  requirements  are
extensive and  running costs are
significant, HSPF is thought to be the
most accurate and  appropriate
management tool presently available
for the continuous simulation  of
hydrology  and  water  quality  in
watersheds.
  The executive summary begins with
a general overview of the model, how
it  compares with other models, and
how it can be applied. For those more
interested in  technical details, the
executive summary presents detailed
information  on the model's  input
requirements, capabilities, innovative
features and design criteria. This latter
information should be  of particular
interest  to those acquainted with
simulation models, who can apprec-
iate  the advanced  programming
techniques used to develop HSPF.
  This Project Summary was devel-
oped by EPA's Environmental Re-
search Laboratory, Athens, GA,  to
announce key findings of the research
project that is fully documented in a
separate report of the same title (see
Project Report ordering information at
back).

Introduction
  The Hydrological Simulation
Program-FORTRAN  (HSPF)  is a
mathematical model designed for use
on  digital  computers to  simulate
hydrologic and water quality processes
in   natural  and  man-made  water
systems. It is an analytical tool that has
application in the planning, design, and
operation of water resources systems.
The model enables the use of probabil-
istic analysis in the fields of hydrology
and water  quality management.  To
simulate the processes that occur in a
watershed,   HSPF  uses  such
information  as the  time history of
rainfall,  temperature,  and solar
intensity and the parameters related to
land use patterns, soil characteristics,
and agricultural practices. The initial
result of an  HSPF simulation is a time
history of the  quantity and quality of
water transported through various soil
zones  down  to  the groundwater
aquifers.  Runoff flow rate, sediment
loads,  nutrients,   pesticides,  toxic
chemicals and other  quality  constit-
uent concentrations can be predicted.
The model then takes these results and
information  about the receiving water
channels  in  the watershed and
simulates the processes that occur in
these  channels  This part  of  the
simulation produces a time history of
water quantity and quality at any point
in the watershed.

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  HSPF  is  an  extension  and
improvement of  three previously
developed models: (1) The Agricultural
Runoff Management (ARM) Model, a
non-proprietary  program written  in
FORTRAN; (2) The  Non-Point Source
Runoff  (NFS) Model;  also  a non-
proprietary  program  written  in
FORTRAN; and  (3) The Hydrologic
Simulation Program (HSP, including
HSP Quality), a Hydrocomp proprietary
program   written in PL1.  The  EPA
recognized several  years  ago that the
continuous  simulation approach
contained in  these  models would be
valuable in solving many complex water
resource problems. Thus,  a fairly large
investment was devoted to developing a
highly flexible  non-proprietary
FORTRAN program  that contains  the
capabilities of these three models, plus
many  extensions.  The result of this
investment is HSPF. It is geared to the
serious user; one  who  understands
continuous simulation  modeling, and
can  make use of the flexibility that it
provides.

HSPF Philosophy
  Management   of  water  resources
involves  the commitment  of other
resources to  protect and  develop our
water.  This commitment may range
from construction of facilities  to the
non-use  of  undeveloped land.  Such
commitments  can   only  be justified
when  one  knows  the  benefits  or
effectiveness  of  the protection to be
achieved.  A fundamental question in
benefit  evaluation  is  whether  an
undesirable water quality event occurs
once a month, once a year, or once a
decade.
  Information on hydrologic or water
quality  events cannot  be  used
effectively for water resources planning
unless the probability of occurrence of
the events is known. The occurrence of
a  water  quality  event  is  strongly
conditioned by antecedent events. As
an example, the  current population of
phytoplankton in  a lake is a function of
the  phytoplankton,  zooplankton,  and
nutrient population yesterday. Likewise,
the  population  of  phytoplankton  five
days ago  has a small  but finite effect
upon  the  current  population  of
phytoplankton.
  Although it is reasonable to  assume
the physical,  chemical, and biological
laws that govern interactions in a body
of water are invariant, specific reaction
rates are determined by what is in the
water body a nd by the stresses i mposed
upon the water body by inflows. These
inflows can be man-caused flows such
as  wastewater  discharges  and
irrigation return flow, or natural flows
such as runoff from rainfall and snow-
melt. Natural flows are governed by the
climate,  soil type, vegetal cover, and
other  physical  features  of  the
watershed. Since vegetal cover (forests,
grassland) and human  activity (land
development, channelization,  and
reservoirs) can, and often do, change
rapidly over short periods of time, they
too must be considered variables  in
water resources planning.  Thus, the
only constants  in  water  resources
planning are the physical, chemical, and
biological laws of nature, and the soil
types  and  other  fixed  physical
characteristics of the  watershed.
  Planners need a method to determine
the frequency characteristics  of the
hydrology and water  quality  of  a
watershed under alternative plans for
future development. This need led  to
the  development  of  continuous
dynamic  simulation, the simulation  of
extended  time periods  with  various
flows and  meteorologic  conditions.
From five to  more than one hundred
years of  data may   be required  to
adequately determine the statistics for
streamflow  and   water quality
constituents.  Simulation of  "critical
period" cannot provide the information
necessary to determine the probability
of water quality events. In  fact,  the
critical period itself might change from
one wastewater management scheme
to the next. Hence,  HSPF simulation
deals with the total process, hydrologic
and  bio-chemical, as a  continuous
process  in time.
  Why  are  continuous  models  like
HSPF an  improvement over dynamic
event  models?  The  long-term
probabilistic character of hydrology and
water quality, as discussed earlier, is
only available from continuous models.
The   magnitudes and  recurrence
intervals of  certain  harmful  events
cannot  be   predicted  using  event
models.  One common mistake is that
rainfall  events  of given  recurrence
intervals are assumed to  result in
streamflow and flood conditions of the
same recurrence interval (i.e., the 25-
year rainfall event leads to  a 25 year
flood). This assumption is erroneous
due to factors such as snowmelt  and
soil  water storage,  that modify  the
statistics of rainfall as the water flows
on the land and river channels. The use
of this invalid assumption in using event
models commonly leads to inappropriate
planning conclusions.
   G.  P. Grimsrud, D. D.  Franz, R.  C. Johanson, and N. H. Crawford are with
    Hydrocomp, Inc., Mountain View, CA 94040.
   T. O. Barnwell is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
   The complete report, entitled "Executive Summary for the Hydrological Simula-
    tion Program FORTRAN (HSPF)," (Order No. PB 82-231 846; Cost: $10.50,
    subject to change) will be available only from:
          National Technical Information Service
          5285 Port Royal Road
          Springfield, VA 22161
          Telephone: 703-487-4650
   The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
          Environmental Research Laboratory
          U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
          College Station Road
          Athens, GA 30613
                                                                                  > US.OOVERNMENTPRINT1NOOfFICe:19tt-559-Ol7/08Z5

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Environmental Protection
Agency
Center for Environmental Research
Information
Cincinnati OH 45268
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Fees Paid
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Agency
EPA 335
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Penalty for Private Use $300

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