United States
 Environmental Protection
 Agency
 Environmental Research
 Laboratory
 Athens, GA30613
 Research and Development
 EPA-600/S3-82-069  May 1984
 Project  Summary
Trends  in  U.S.   Irrigation:
Three  Regional  Studies
 Kenneth D. Frederick, James  Hanson, James Pagano, Robert N. Shulstad,
 Ralph D. May, Billy E. Herrington, and Jon M. Erstine
  Three separate reports, each dealing
 with irrigation in a different region of
 the  United  States,  are  brought
 together in this volume. Although they
 are disparate in approach and level of
 effort,   combined  they provide a
 comprehensive view of the prospects
 for irrigated agriculture  in the United
 States over the next several decades.
 The three  studies  are "Western
 Irrigation:  Its  Past  and  Future
 Growth"  by  Kenneth D. Frederick,
 "Growth and Prospects  for Irrigation
 in  the  Eastern United  States"  by
 James Hanson  and James  Pagano,
 and "The  Economic Potential for the
 Expansion  of  Irrigation  in   the
 Mississipi Delta Region" by Robert N.
 Shulstad,  Ralph D.  May,  Billy  E.
 Herrington, and Jon M.  Erstine.
  This  Project Summary was dev-
 eloped  by   EPA's  Environmental
 Research Laboratory, Athens. GA, to
 announce key findings of the research
 project that is fully documented in a
 separate report of the same title (see
 Project Report ordering information at
 back).

 Western Irrigation

  This study is a systematic attempt to
assess both the current and the future
role of western irrigation  in producing
the  nation's  farm  output  and   the
resource and environmental pressures
affecting and stemming from western
irrigation.  Past trends, water supply
conditions,  water  institutions,
economic  forces,  and environmental
factors are examined for their impacts
on the course of western irrigation over
the next two to  three decades. The
influence  of  these  institutions and
economic  forces  on resource use
efficiency and environmental consid-
erations also are considered along with
the broad policy  implications  of the
analysis.

Past Trends
  The addition of about 25  million
irrigated acres in  the West was an
important  factor   in  the  ability of
American farmers to increase crop pro-
duction  by 70 percent from 1950 to
1977 without any net increase in total
harvested  acreage.  A  very   rough
estimate of the impact of irrigation of
four principal crops on agricultural land
use suggests that the higher average
yields obtained on these irrigated lands
reduced  the harvested land required to
produce  the 1977 national output of
corn, sorghum, wheat, and cotton by 7
million acres. Furthermore,  by making
high  productivity  farming possible in
arid areas, irrigation has expanded the
acreage  suitable  for  agriculture by
about 10 to 13 million acres.
  Analysis of four principal crops—corn,
sorghum, wheat, and cotton—suggests
that,  while  western irrigation  had  a
significant  impact,  it was not the
principal factor underlying the impress-
ive increases in national average crop
yields from   1950  to  1977.  The
combination of the improved yields on
irrigated  farms and the increase in the
relative acreage devoted to irrigation
accounted for 13 percent of the national
rise in  corn yields,  16 percent for

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sorghum, 7 percent for wheat, and 44
percent for cotton. Irrigation's contribu-
tion to production increases was even
greater;  28  percent  of  the national
increase in corn production over this
period  was  on  irrigated  lands,  20
percent for sorghum,  12 percent for
wheat, and 175 percent for cotton.
  Examination of changes  in the rate
and location  of the  growth of western
irrigated acreage indicates two broad
trends that are likely to continue in the
future. The rate of growth  of irrigated
acreage has declined steadily over the
last three decades, and the locus of the
growth has moved from the south to the
north. From 1945 to 1954,79 percent of
the growth of irrigated acreage was in a
southern belt extending from Texas and
Oklahoma to California. In subsequent
decades,  this region contributed 31
percent and then only 1 percent of the
overall growth of western irrigation. In
contrast, the central and northern  High
Plains contribution to the expansion of
western irrigation rose from about 10
percent from 1945 to 1954 to over 90
percent from 1964 to 1974.

Water Supplies

  Total surface water withdrawals for
irrigation have fluctuated around a level
trend  since   the   1950's,  and  the
combined  impact of several factors
suggests this situation may continue for
several more decades. First of all, total
water requirements  exceed average
year  streamflows within the West's
principal irrigated areas and there is
little  water available  for expansion in
most of the other areas. Where there is
water for expansion, the increases will
go  primarily to  nonagricultural users
who  can afford to pay  higher water
costs. The  comparative  stability  of
surface water use for irrigation in the
face  of  increasing  water   scarcity
reflects in  part the  insulation of most
surface water costs from both market
considerations and rising energy costs.
Undoubtedly, there  will be transfers of
water from  agricultural to other uses,
particularly  within  the  water-scarce
areas, as farmers are presented  with
increasing opportunities to sell their
water rights.  However, since  large
percentage  increases  in other water
uses can be accomodated  with  small
changes in irrigation water use, at least
over  the next  several  decades,  the
impacts of such transfers on irrigation
will be gradual and relatively minor from
the  perspective of the  entire West.
Moreover, transfers of water rights from
irrigation to other uses in the water-
scarce areas are likely to be offset in part
by modest increases in irrigation within
the regions where surface water is still
available  for   appropriation.  Federal
irrigation  projects,  which  are
encountering increasing  resistance to
their high investment costs and the high
opportunity  costs  of  diverting  more
scarce water to irrigation, will not make
any  further  significant contribution to
the expansion of western irrigation.
  For several decades, the growth  of
western irrigation has  been based on
groundwater withdrawals which rose
threefold  between  1950 and 1975.
Currently  groundwater  withdrawals,
which account for about 39 percent of
all western irrigation water,  result  in
the  mining of  more than  22 million
acre-feet  per  year   from   western
aquifers.  Even though  groundwater
stocks  are still large  in relation  to
current use and mining is not a threat to
exhaust physically the water  stored in
any  of the water resource regions  or
subregions in  the foreseeable future,
the combination of the overdrafts and
rising  energy  costs  threaten  the
economic supply of water for many
irrigators. In some regions, especially
the  High  Plains,  the combination  of
increasing pumping depths,  declining
well yields, and  rising  energy costs
already has started to curtail  pumping
and  irrigated acreage. In the absence of
sharp  increases in real crop  prices,
future expansion likely will be  limited to
areas  with  relatively low  pumping
depths  or access to energy supplies
under  relatively favorable terms. But
combining one or both of these condi-
tions with favorable growing conditions
will  become increasingly  rare.
  The  water available  for irrigation is
not likely to be augmented significantly
in the  next several  decades through
development  of  unconventional
sources  of  supply. Although  some
forms of weather modification, particu-
larly winter  cloud  seeding,  appear
technologically  and  economically
promising, institutional obstacles  are
apt 19  inhibit its widespread  adoption.
Cost factors associated  in  part with
their high energy intensity suggest that
water importation and desalinization of
seawater will not be profitable for use in
irrigation. And a combination of cost,
technical, and  institutional uncertain-
ties  make icebergs an unlikely source of
western  water  for the  foreseeable
future.

Institutional Factors

  Western water law and management
institutions  were   developed  when
water  was  plentiful  in  relation  to
demand. Important objectives of early
water  law  and policy  were to  give
investors clear and unambiguous title to
water  rights,  to  encourage   the
development of water resources, and to
minimize   uncertainty  and  conflict
among users.
  Today, the  West  faces a situation
where the water is scarce in relation to
demand  and the costs of developing
new supplies are high in relation to its
value in irrigation.  Urban,  industrial,
recreational, and  wildlife  needs   for
fresh water are becoming increasingly
competitive with  irrigation.  Yet, there
has  not  been  a  corresponding
adjustment in the laws and institutions
that control and manage the resource.
All  too often the laws and institutions
governing water use limit rather than
facilitate the transfer of water to higher-
valued  uses  and  stifle  rather than
encourage   conservation   measures.
Such deficiencies  are  common  with
most state water institutions, but they
are  especially severe  in  the case of
federal projects that provide irrigators
enormous  subsidies  but  little to  no
opportunity or incentive to benefit from
conservation.
  Groundwater users do not have the
security of long-term access to low cost
water enjoyed by the owners of senior
surface  water  rights.   Groundwater
supplies often are depletable resources
threatened by the addition of new wells,
and the  costs of pumping are closely
linked to  energy  costs.  Individually,
pumpers have improved the efficiency
of their water use; collectively they have
sought  government  help  in limiting
depletion  and  curbing  water  cost
increases.  Many states have enacted or
are  considering   legislation  to  limit
pumping in order to extend the life of the
aquifers. In terms of achieving a long-
term efficient use of the resource,  one
problem with the current groundwater
situation is that farmers'  costs do  not
include the loss to neighboring farmers
and future users of depleting an aquifer.
Theoretically, taxes on  pumping could
internalize these costs, but practically, it
would be  difficult  to approximate  the
ideal level for such a tax, and any tax
would be strongly resisted by pumpers.

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Economic Factors
  In general groundwater irrigators pay
the most for their water and are the most
susceptible to further cost  increases
stemming from both rising energy costs
and declining water levels. Groundwater
costs  vary widely depending  on the
pumping depth and the type and cost of
the fuel. For  a typical farmer pumping
from 200 ft. with electicity, water at the
wellhead  costs  about $24/acre-foot;
distributing this water through a center
pivot  system adds  another  $20  to
$30/acre-foot  to  irrigation costs
(assuming 1980 energy prices  and
deflating  all  costs  to 1977 constant
dollars). A doubling  of electricity prices
would add another $32 to the  costs of
irrigation  if no adjustments were made
to the higher energy costs.  Such cost
levels would  make it difficult to irrigate
profitably grains, cotton,  many other
crops  in  the absence of significant
increases  in crop   prices.  Farmers
confronted with  even higher pumping
depths and declining aquifers will be
even harder pressed to compete in the
absence of crop  price increases.
  Surface water costs also vary widely
depending on the distance and height
the water must be transported to arrive
at the farm, the availability of subsidies,
and the need for on-farm pumping to get
it  to  the field.  Surface  water costs,
however, tend to be considerably lower
than and not as subject  to change  as
groundwater costs. Farmers with senior
rights to  surface waters that  can be
distributed through  gravity  have the
lowest costs and are the least suscept-
ible to future changes. For these fortun-
ate farmers,  water  is  virtually a  free
resource,  and it  is probably treated as
such unless the  farmer has  an oppor-
tunity to sell  or put to alternative uses
any water saving. Another  fortunate
group of irrigators comprises the farmers
receiving  water from federal  water
projects. This highly subsidized water is
used on nearly 20 percent of the West's
irrigated acreage.
  Most irrigators have a wide range of
opportunities for responding to high
energy  and   water   costs  short of
abandoning irrigation.  Measures such
as improving  pump efficiency, tailwater
re-use   systems,   and  irrigation
scheduling already are profitable under
a  variety  of  conditions.  Future
innovations undoubtedly  will  provide
further opportunities for increasing the
yields per unit of irrigation water and
reducing the cost of water.  But since
technological developments will not be
limited  to  irrigated agriculture alone,
they are not likely to alter the adverse
impacts rising energy costs and water
scarcity are having on the profitability of
irrigated relative to dryland farming. On
the other hand, if real crop prices rise as
some analysts predict,  irrigators  with
their  higher than average yields will
tend  to benefit more than  dryland
farmers.

Environmental Factors

  There are a  variety of environmental
problems associated with irrigation but
the  only   ones  likely  to  have  any
significant  effect  on  the  role  of
irrigation  are  groundwater depletion,
low streamflows, and salinity.
  Current water requirements defined
to  include  mstream  uses  exceed
average  streamflows   in  the  most
favorable areas for irrigation. Analysis
undertaken by the  U.S  Department of
Agriculture suggests irrigated acreage
might have to be reduced  by about 20
percent to ensure sufficient water is left
in the streams for optimum fish, wildlife,
and other environmental values.
  An estimated 25 to 35 percent of the
West's  irrigated lands have  salinity
problems. But the lands where salinity
is likely to significantly curtail product-
ion comprise a  much smaller percentage.
The productivity of several mill ion acres,
primarily in the lower Colorado  River
Basin  and California's San  Joaqum
Valley,  are threatened by  high  salt
levels.  The  annual  damages to
agricultural  plus  municipal  and
industrial users of the salt-laden waters
already probably exceed $100 million,
and they undoubtedly will rise unless
preventive measures  are  taken.
Improved basin-wide and on-farm water
management  have  great potential for
reducing salinity levels  and mitigating
the damages  from high  salt levels.
However,   institutional  obstacles to
adopting  basin-wide  management
schemes and the high costs of some of
the structural  measures  that  might
achieve the same  result  suggest an
increasing  number  of farmers will be
confronted  with  serious salt problems
Nevertheless, although the impacts will
be serious within the affected areas, the
overall  impact   on  the   productive
potential of western irrigation is not
likely to exceed 2 to 3 percent over the
next several decades.
  Another environmental problem that
could affect the growth of irrigation over
the   next   several   decades   is
groundwater  pollution  from  the
infiltration  of agricultural  chemicals
The  most likely area to experience  a
significant expansion of irrigation is the
Nebraska Sandhills, where agricultural
chemicals,   especially   nitrogen,  are
readily leached into the groundwater
Good on-farm water management can
keep  nitrate  levels within tolerable
levels,  but   failure to  adopt  such
practices  could  lead  to  state
intervention  to  enforce  better
management  practices,  possibly
limiting the  growth of irrigation in the
area

Projections of Irrigated
Acreage

   Over  the  next  several  decades
changes in  total irrigated acreage will
depend in a  large part on what happens
to agricultural prices.  Although  irri-
gation in many areas of the West  is
constrained   by  physical   and
institutional limits on developing  new
water supplies, there  are  additional
lands with access to water for irrigation.
Within  these  areas,  the  important
constraints on irrigation are economic.
Significant increases in product prices
would offset the negative  impacts  of
high  energy  prices  and  increasing
pumping depths; the development  of
new   irrigated   lands  would  be
stimulated, and the decline in irrigated
farming  in  areas  with  significant
groundwater mining would be slowed.
  Even  in the  absence  of significant
change  in  crop  prices,  some  net
expansion of western irrigation seems
likely. Most  of the expansion will be in
the Northern Plains states,  and more
specifically within  the  Nebraska
Sandhills This area has considerable
potential for expansion, and based on
recent investments in wells and center
pivots, irrigation investment in the area
is profitable at current price  levels.
Modest increases  in  irrigation  within
the  Dakotas  is also  likely although
irrigation will remain relatively unimprt-
ant in these states. The increases within
the Northern Plains will be partly offset
by some reduction  in irrigation in the
Kansas and  Nebraska High  Plains.
  The impacts of high energy costs and
declining groundwater tables will force
a significant decline in irrigation by the
turn of the century within the High
Plains  of  Texas  and  Oklahoma.
Increases in irrigated  acreage  within
the eastern areas of these states will be

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modest in comparison to the declines in
the  western  areas.  Thus,  with  no
change in crop prices, a 2 million acre
decline in  irrigation is likely for  the
Southern Plains.
  The Mountain region will experience
little net change in irrigated acreage but
within  this large, heterogeneous area
comprising  eight  states,  significant
changes  in the location of irrigation are
likely. The southern areas and eastern
Colorado, where  current  levels   of
irrigation  are   dependent  on
nonrenewable  water  sources,  will
experience some decline  in  irrigated
acreage.  In the absence  of  high crop
prices,  these declines will be offset only
in part by some modest increases in
irrigation  within  the  rest  of  the
Mountain region.
  In the Pacific  region, a modest overall
expansion of irrigation is likely even
with  no  increase  in crop  prices.
California's irrigated acreage might rise
about 5  to 10  percent to roughly 10
million acres by 2000. While the Pacific
Northwest is the area least affected by
water shortages, the region's water is
becoming increasingly valuable  for
alternative  uses.  Furthermore,  very
inexpensive  electricity  is  no longer
available  for  expanding  pumping.
Consequently,  additions   to  irrigated
acreage in the Northwest over the next
several decades are  not likely to push
the totals for Washington  and Oregon
much beyond  5 million acres without
significant crop price increases.
  Overall, irrigated acreage in the West
will increase only about 6  to 7 percent
over the next two  to three decades or
from about 50.2 million in 1977 to 53.5
million in 2000 to  2010. A 25 percent
increase in real farm prices might  add
another 4.5 million irrigated acres in the
West, more than doubling the growth of
irrigated  acreage over  the next two to
three  decades. This  relatively  low
anticipated  sensitivity to  real  price
levels  is primarily a reflection of two
factors-the  fact that  no foreseeable
crop price  levels will  make  irrigation
competitive with most municipal  and
industrial  water  uses  and  the
importance of institutional and resource
factors  in  determining the level  of
irrigation.

Qualitative Changes in
Western Irrigation
  The nature as well as the rate of growth
of irrigation will be very different from
the  past when irrigated farming was
stimulated  by  the  availability  of
inexpensive  water and energy. Water
withdrawals  will  be  reduced as  it
becomes more profitable both to make
water saving investments and to reduce
the water delivered to the plant, even if
it means some reduction in crop yields.
While total irrigated acreage may not
peak until the first decade of the  next
century, total withdrawals for irrigation
probably  will  peak   much  sooner,
perhaps  within  the   next  decade.
Improved yields to water inputs  and
shifts to higher-value crops will enable
the value of production from irrigated
farms to rise even after the quantities of
land and water in irrigation have peaked
and started to decline. Thus, both water
withdrawals and acreage are  likely to
become increasingly poor indicators of
changes in the contribution of irrigated
output  to   national   agricultural
production.

Policy Implications and
Conclusions

  The policies, laws, and institutions
governing the use  of western waters
were developed largely during a period
when  water supplies  were abundant
relative  to   demand.   An  important
objective of  the 1902 Reclamation Act
was to stimulate settlement  of the arid
West,  and  the  subsidies  built  into
federal irrigation  projects undoubtedly
encouraged  western  rural settlement
during the first five or sixdecades of this
century. Moreover,   by   providing
assurances  of  continued   access  to
water, state water laws helped attract
investment to the West.
  Water is now a principal constraint on
further development, and the subsidies
and laws insulating many water users
from   the  increasing   value  of   the
resource have  become  a  deterrent
rather than a stimulant to development.
State laws and policies not only allow an
inefficient use  of western water,  they
ensure it by reducing or eliminating the
incentive and opportunities for trans-
ferring water to higher value uses.
   Improving the  efficiency of western
water use does not require forcing the
owners of water rights to pay for  what
has been legally given to them. Indeed,
any attempt to abrogate these rights
would   be   futile  and potentially
damaging to the region since  it would
threaten the entire legal and institution-
al structure that  has brought  order to
the allocation of western water. A more
acceptable alternative  for  providing
incentives to conserve water in areas
where it  is  scarce is to allow and
facilitate the  sale of water that is not
used by the owners of the water rights.
Then, even if a farmer does not  have to
pay for the water, there would be an
opportunity cost to putting the water to
any particular use.
  Since irrigation  is  a  relatively low-
value  user,  a  more market-oriented
allocation system  is likely to transfer
water  from  irrigation  to municipal,
industrial,  and other uses. However,
these  negative  impacts on irrigation
might be more than offset by the added
incentive  that  would  be provided to
increase the  returns to the water used
in  irrigation.  A   reduction   in  the
environmental damages from irrigation
practices would be a further benefit of
policies designed to make water costs
more nearly reflect the scarcity value of
the resource.
  If   the  transition  from   water
abundance  to  scarcity allows  for an
efficient use of the resources over time,
irrigation will contribute to agricultural
production and growth for many more
decades. Future potential lies primarily
in increasing the returns to water, not in
the development of new water supplies.
Realization  of  this potential requires
providing incentives to conserve water
and  encourage  the development of
more  effective  ways for farmers to
respond to  higher water and  energy
costs and salinity  levels.


Eastern Irrigation

  The  study  of   eastern  irrigation
represents a very  modest research
effort to describe  the past growth of
eastern irrigation  and to assess  the
prospects for  increased irrigation in two
farm  production  regions, the Lake
States and the Southeast.
  As  of  1939, the 559,000  acres of
irrigated  rice  in   the   Delta   region
accounted  for about  three-fourths of
acreage irrigated in the East; fruits and
vegetables in  Florida accounted  for
most  of the  remaining  irrigation. By
1950 the Eastern States still only had
about 1.5 million acres under irrigation
or 6 percent of the national total. From
1950  to  1974,   however,   eastern
irrigation grew at an annual rate of 4.6
percent, nearly three times the rate of
growth of western irrigation. By 1977,
17 percent of the nation's irrigation was
in the East.  Yet, irrigation still repre-

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sented only 3.5 percent of total eastern
cropland and pasture.
  Several factors played a major role in
the expansion of eastern irrigation in
recent  decades.   Improvements  in
irrigation  technology  have  made
irrigation cheaper  and more versatile.
The  modern  self-propelled  sprinkler
systems have drastically reduced the
labor cost of  irrigation,  they are less
capital-intensive than the hand-moved
systems, and center pivots can operate
on sandier, hillier terrain with slopes up
to 9 to 10 percent. Furthermore, the
complementary  inputs  to  irrigation
water—fertilizers,   pesticides,  herbi-
cides, machinery, and land itself-have
grown both more expensive and more
productive. This means that the "penalty"
paid in lower yields and unrecovered
costs of chemical inputs during drought
years  is  higher than  before  while,
conversely, the reward  for having the
right amount of water at the right time is
greater.
  Although  rainfall  in  the   East is
adequate in most years to provide good
yields to most crops, there are several
types of situations where irrigation is
likely  to  be   feasible.  Historically,
irrigation of rice varieties that require
flooding has been important in the Delta
region.  Although   the  statistics on
eastern irrigation  are no longer
dominated   by  rice,  this crop   still
accounted for  23  percent of eastern
irrigated  acreage   in   1969.   Since
irrigation reduces the risk of crop loss
during   dry   periods,   drought   has
provided an important impetus to the
expansion of irrigation. Indeed, this has
been the major factor for the growth of
irrigation in  the  Corn  Belt.  More
generally, however, irrigation of high-
value crops often  is justified because
the  difference  between  average
irrigated and dryland yields is sufficient
to cover the costs of irrigation. Thus, the
high-value  crops,  peanuts,  tobacco,
orchards, potatoes,  and vegetables,
accounted  for  32  percent of eastern
irrigation in 1969. And finally irrigation
may be profitable in areas of abundant
rainfall if the soils do not retain moisture
well. This factor explains the expansion
of irrigation of crops such as corn and
soybeans on sandy soils.
  The  areas with the greatest potential
for  expansion  of  irrigation  are the
Mississippi Delta,  the Southeast, and
the Lake States. The Delta region was
not considered in this analysis since it
was studied separately by a group at the
University of Arkansas. The prospects
 for expanded irrigation in the Northeast,
 Appalachian, and Corn Belt regions are
 considered to  be small.  In the sandy
 areas of the Southeast and Lake States,
 however, irrigation grew rapidly during
 the 1970's and further rapid growth is
 likely. Capital, not energy, costs are the
 major obstacle to profitable irrigation in
 the East. Energy costs are not as crucial
 as  in  the  West  primarily  because
 eastern farmers apply much less water.
 Double-cropping, switching to  high-
 value  crops,  and   use   of  portable
 irrigation systems that can be  used on
 several  fields  are common  ways of
 offsetting the high Investment costs of
 eastern irrigation.
  Corn and soybeans are likely to be the
major irrigated  crops  in the Southeast
and  Lake States. Irrigated wheat will
grow in importance, especially where it
can be double cropped with soybeans.
Cotton will not be a major irrigated crop
in the East because of pest problems.
  Several environmental problems will
be  associated  with  the expansion of
eastern irrigation. In some parts of the
Southeast  pumping  may bring some
long-term  decline   in  groundwater
levels resulting  in a reduction in surface
flows. Land  clearing to  accomodate
sprinkler systems is likely to aggravate
erosion.  The Southeast  and  several
areas in the Lake States already  have
water quality problems stemming from
agricultural runoff,  and deliveries of
sediment and agricultural chemicals to
water  bodies  may   rise  with   the
expansion of irrigation. In particular, the
spread of irrigation on sandy soils poses
a danger of excessive nitrate concentra-
tions in the groundwater.

Irrigation in  the Mississippi
Delta  Region

  This study employs  a  cost-benefit
analysis to determine the potential for
irrigation  in  the  Mississippi  Delta
region.  Cost-benefit   ratios  are
compared to determine the crop rotation
providing the highest rate of return on a
given  soil  group  under  alternative
situations.  These situations take into
account two different levels  of  crop
prices, nine soil groups, two levels of
crop  yields, three irrigation methods
(flood, furrow  with  gated  pipe,  and
center pivot)  using two different  fuels
(diesel  and  electric),   six  possible
rotations,  two  levels of  variable
production  costs, and  two levels  of
opportunity costs. The opportunity cost
of irrigated cropland is represented  by
the yearly net  returns from dryland
crop production that would be foregone.
The  study of  the  cost/benefit  ratio
analysis  entails  24 situations  in  all
which  are compared at a  10 percent
discount rate. The analysis is based on
and data have been gathered for a six-
county area, which  comprises a highly
representative  sample  of  the  Delta
region  in terms of  soil types, slopes,
drainage,  cropping  patterns,   farm
organization, and climate.
  A total of 17,641,546 acres within the
Mississippi Delta Region possess the
physical   characteristics  that  permit
irrigation. A total of 15,493,278 acres
can be irrigated through the use of any
of  the  three  techniques   examined,
furrow, flood, or center pivot irrigation.
An additional  2,148,268  acres  have
potential for center pivot irrigation only
due to excessive or  uneven slope.
  Furrow irrigation  is the  most econ-
omical alternative for all soils where the
technique is physically possible. Under
the assumptions examined, for 16 of the
24 situations it is economically feasible
to irrigate all of the potential 15,493,278
acres of cropland with furrow irrigation.
The feasibility for increasing irrigation
within  the Delta region is  decreased
only under the  most unfavorable situa-
tion  examined;  1985  baseline  crop
prices, 33 percent increase  in variable
production costs, and average yields. If
these   conditions  prevail,  it  is
economical to irrigate only 60 percent of
the potential furrow irrigated acres, or
9,428,190 acres.
  There  are 2,148,268 acres of Delta
cropland that  are either too steep or
undulating to permit furrow irrigation.
Center pivot irrigation is the only choice
for this acreage unless land forming is
used to  create the proper slope. The
potential  for  center pivot  irrigation
ranges from 2,148,268 acres, or 100
percent of the  potential center pivot
irrigated  acreage,  to 465,030  acres
across the various situations examined.
  The  estimated  potential   regional
increase  in   soybean  production
resulting from irrigation ranges from an
increase of 198,020,989 bushels, a 71
percent   increase, to  74,931,516
bushels,  a 26.8 percent increase. In 20
of the  24 situations  examined,  the
increase in regional soybean production
ranges between  35 and  55  percent.
Much of the difference in these figures
results from whether average or high
level management is assumed.
  In 22 of the 24 situations examined, at
least  90.5  percent of the  region's

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cropland could be profitably irrigated.
For  the  six-county sample area this
percentage  would  constitute
approximately  1,866,318 acres.
However, the Federal  census indicates
only  180,762  acres,  9.7  percent  of
sample area cropland, was irrigated in
1978.
  While   irrigation  is  expanding,
growth is limited in the  short run by
several factors. The first factor is the
availability  of capital.  This project has
assumed  that  adequate  capital   is
available  for  irrigation   expansion.
However, to install irrigation systems on
all profitable  soil groups in  the  Delta
region would require from 1.86 to 2.16
billion  dollars  at  present costs,
depending  on  fuel type used.  Also,
farmers would need capital to operate
the  systems  plus their  normal crop
production  capital requirements. This
amount of capital will become available
only over an extended period of time.
  Another  factor  may be   a lack  of
knowledge  among farmers concerning
irrigation investment  costs,  operating
costs, and  yield response.  Until very
recently,  little  research  tying  these
factors together had been done for the
Delta region.  Because of this lack  of
research, producers have not had a firm
foundation  upon which to assess the
profitability of irrigation.
  Insufficient  labor may also inhibit
irrigation growth.  Many  farmers may
have labor busy with other activities or
may have difficulty in securing  extra
labor on a short-term  basis.
  The study  did  not  consider the
following  aspects  of the   irrigation
expansion issues:  1) the availability  of
labor necessary  to furrow  irrigation
systems, 2) the tax  advantages that
serve to  decrease the  real cost  of
irrigation systems,  particularly capital
intensive center pivot systems,  3) the
possibility of  land forming those soils
that cannot be furrow irrigated now and
installing surface irrigation rather than
center pivot   irrigation,  and (4) the
quality and quantity of water available
for expanding irrigation.
  The  most  visible  environmental
effects due to irrigation are damages
from soil erosion and run-off water
containing  pesticides  and  fertilizers.
Excessive sediment loads due to erosion
could increase water treatment  costs
for  municipalities,  damage  domestic
and industrial water supplies and water
recreation,  damage wildlife  and fish
populations,  and lower   aesthetic
values.  Mechanical  removal   of
sediment from streams and lakes would
be costly.
  Erosion would also carry pesticides
and  fertilizers   with  the  sediment.
Irrigation of some crops might require
greater amounts of these materials than
would be used  in dryland agriculture.
Pesticides and  fertilizers carried from
the  fields  would  enter the  aquatic
environment and might disrupt fish and
other organisms crucial  in  the  food
chain.  The  greatest effects  of these
materials would be nitrate pollution of
groundwater,  decreased  supplies  of
dissolved oxygen in water and resultant
growth of aquatic plants, and increased
concentrations  of salt  in  the  water.
Proper management of irrigation could
reduce  all  these environmental
problems.
  Kenneth D. Frederick, James Hanson, James Pagano, Robert N. Shulstad, Ralph
    D. May, Billy E. Harrington,  and Jon M. Erstine are with Resources for the
    Future, Washington, DC 20036.
  G. W. Bailey is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
  The complete report, entitled "Trends in U.S. Irrigation: Three Regional Studies,"
    (Order No. PB 84-159 409; Cost: $35.50, subject to change) will be available
    only from:
          National Technical Information Service
          5285 Port Royal Road
          Springfield. VA 22161
          Telephone: 7O3-487-465O
  The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
          Environmental Research Laboratory
          U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
          College Station Road
          Athens, GA 30613
                                                                                 . S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1984/759-102/0936

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United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Center for Environmental Research
Information
Cincinnati OH 45268
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use $300
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