United States Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory Research Triangle Park NC 27711 Research and Development EPA/600/S4-85/046 Aug. 1985 Project Summary Application of the Microenvironment Monitoring Approach to Assess Human Exposure to Carbon Monoxide Naihua Duan, Harold Sauls, and David Holland Exposure estimates based on moni- toring carbon monoxide in microenvi- ronments are compared to exposure estimates based on personal monitor- ing with individual, portable monitors. Methods of calculation are reviewed and discussed, and results of calcula- tions are presented. These data indicate that population exposure estimates based on data from the Washington Microenvironment Study, combined with people's activity data from the Washington Urban Scale Study, are about 40 percent higher than estimates based on personal monitoring data from the Urban Scale Study. The former set of exposure estimates is found to be a good predictor of the latter. Neverthe- less, generalizations of these findings to other data bases are not valid at this time. This Project Summary was developed by EPA's Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC. to announce key findings of the research project that is fully docu- mented in a separate report of the same title (see Project Report ordering infor- mation at back). Introduction Due to high costs, equipment require- ments, and people-related difficulties associated with personal exposure moni- toring, it is highly desirable to develop methodology with which to estimate population exposure to air pollution with- out directly monitoring individuals sam- pled from the population. Knowledge of pollutant concentrations in microenviron- ment types (METs) plus information about the activities and mobility of a popu- lation under study can be used to obtain all the elements, presumably, needed to produce a valid estimate of overall popu- lation exposure. Variability of pollutants, concentrations, and time within METs are the principal limiting factors of reli- ability, given that reported activities match up well with the defined METs. This study applies the microenviron- ment monitoring (MEM) approach, called the indirect approach, to estimate human exposure to carbon monoxide (CO), using activity time data from the Washington Urban Scale Study and CO concentration data from the CO Microenvironment Study. The estimated exposures based on the MEM approach are then compared with estimated exposures based on the personal monitoring (PM) approach, called the direct approach. For the specific data used in this study, the MEM exposures are about 40 percent higher than the PM exposures. However, despite this discrepancy, the MEM expo- sure is found to be a powerful predictor forthe PM exposure. On the log scale, the MEM exposure has the correct span rela- tive to the PM exposure; the relationship between the two sets of exposure esti- mates is found to be a constant drift. Several factors offer some explanation of the observed difference between the MEM and the PM exposures. The two data collecting activities were not de- signed primarily for comparative analy- sis. Therefore, the microenvironments are imperfect matches with the reported ------- activities. The commuting routes of the CO M icroenvironment Study were select- ed as "heavily traveled" and sampled only during the rush hour periods. The PM study sampled travel in private cars at any time it occurred. Also, Wallace, Thom- as, and Mage noted that COHb levels estimated from breath measurements were higher than those estimated from PM observations. It is believed that read- ings decline as the monitor battery dis- charges. Monitors were used for much shorter periods with more frequent cali- brationsduringtheCOMicroenvironment Study than in the PM Study. Exposure Assessment Until recently, human exposure to air pollution could be assessed only with fixed-site ambient monitoring data. Typi- cally, people residing in the same neigh- borhood near a monitoring station were treated as homogeneous receptors fixed at the location of the monitoring station. Recent field studies with personal expo- sure monitors (PEMs) have found this approach inadequate for such pollutants as carbon monoxide, which are spatially variable or have nonambient sources or sinks. During the Washington M icroen- vironment Study commuters were ex- posed to 9-12 ppm CO averaged over the entire commute route, while at the same time of day fixed-site monitors in DC logged an average of about 3 ppm CO. A study by Nagda and Koontz observed CO concentrations generally between the MEM and PM values reported here for comparable microenvironments. Obvious- ly it is important to consider population activities and mobility when assessing exposure. Incorporation of population mobility and activities into the CO exposure assess- ment process became a more practical reality with the development of reliable, continuous CO personal exposure moni- tors (PEMs). There are two general approaches to exposure assessment us- ing PEMs. The first is the personal moni- toring (PM) approach in which human subjects are sampled from the target population and are equipped with PEMs for a certain time to measure their expo- sures directly. This approach was taken in the Washington Urban Scale Study. Ad- vantages are simplicity of design and freedom from modeling assumptions. The main disadvantage is cost, too high for large-scale investigations. An alternative approach to assess expo- sure is the microenvironment type (MET) approach in which pollutant concentra- tion data are combined with or enhanced by activity time data. The MET approach can be implemented either by the en- hanced personal monitoring (EPM) meth- od or by the microenvironment monitor- ing method. The latter approach was taken in the CO Microenvironment Study in Washington, DC, during the Winter of 1983. The MET method combines MET-speci- f ic pollutant concentration data and activ- ity time data to estimate exposures. This approach incorporates information about the mobility of the population under study. A relatively inexpensive way to imple- ment the MET approach is through micro- environment (ME) monitoring. Instead of MET concentration data from personal monitoring, a number of MEs may be sampled in each MET, with research staff or trained technicians sent to the sampled microenvironments to monitor those micro- environments directly. Methods for Estimating Expo- sure The MET concentration data and the MET time data can be combined in sev- eral ways to estimate exposure. If one is interested only in average exposure, one can use the average time-weighted sum- mation formula and estimate average exposure by person-days), and the exposure for each convoluted unit is estimated using a time- weighted summation formula similar to Equation (1). E = I k Ck x T, (D where E is the average exposure, Ck is the average MET concentration for the kth MET, and Tk is the average MET time for the kth MET. This method implicitly as- sumes that the MET concentrations and MET times are uncorrelated. The assump- tion basically rules out responses to air pollution episodes which might cause people to stay away from high concentra- tion METs during such days. For most purposes the mere estimation of average exposure is inadequate, and it is necessary to estimate exposure distri- bution or individual exposures. One way of doing this is to use a simulation model in which the concentration and activity data are summarized by probabilistic dis- tributions, human activity and concentra- tion data are simulated from those prob- abilistic distributions, and the simulated data are used to estimate exposures. This type of approach generally assumes that the concentration and time are inde- pendent. Another approach is the convo- lution method. Units (e.g., persons) from the activity data base are paired with units (e.g., days) from the concentration data base to form convoluted units (e.g.. Eim - (2) where E,m is the exposure combining the ith unit in the activity data base and the mth unit in the concentration data base, Cmk is the MET concentration for the mth unit in the concentration data base in the kth MET, and T,k is the MET time for the ith unit in the activity data base in the kth MET. To illustrate the application of Equation 2, consider a study that has 43 days of MEM data, combined with a sample of 705 persons, each providing one day of activity diary. If the ith person in the activ- ity sample spent the day according to T, and was exposed to concentrations Cm in the METs encountered during that day, he would receive exposure E,m. As inde- pendence is assumed between the MET concentrations and times, each of the 43 concentration vectors Cm is equally likely for each of the 705 participants. With the convolution method, the exposures Eim are derived for each of the 43 x 705 = 30,315 pairings of persons and days in the two data bases. Each such pairing forms one convoluted person-day. Another method can be viewed as a hybridization between the average time- weighted summation formula Eq. (1) and the convolution method Eq. (2). With this hybrid method, the average MET concen- tration in each MET is used to estimate the exposure for each unit (day or person- day) from the activity data base by E, = ICk x Tlk k (3) This method ignores the variability in exposures between microenvironments of the same MET. If all microenvironments belonging to the same MET have the same concentration, this method is pref- erable to the convolution method because of its simplicity. If the microenvironments belonging to the same MET vary substan- tially, this approach is likely to underes- timate the variability of the exposure distribution. Activity Time Data A population-based study of CO expo- sure was conducted during the winter of 1982-83 in the Washington, DC metro- politan area. An area probability sample of human subjects was enrolled for one day for each in this study. The partici- ------- pants filled out activity diaries giving the activities they were engaged in during each time period. The activities were entered in the diaries as activity seg- ments, where each activity segment was defined to be the time period between two reported changes in activities in the activ- ity diary. The participants' exposures to CO were measured using PEMs, which recorded the average concentration over each activity segment. The participants in the Washington Urban Scale Study were selected from a probability sample. To extrapolate from the sample to the target population, it is necessary to weight the individual obser- vations by the sampling weights based on sampling probabilities. In preliminary analysis, the summary statistics based on the weighted and the unweighted proce- dures were compared. The weighting did not have a major effect on the results. For example, the average time spent in car commuting differs by about 2 percent between the weighted and the unweight- ed estimates. Because the primary goal of the comparative study is to compare the estimated exposures based on the MEM and PM approaches for the observed sample, the extrapolation to the target population is not crucial. Therefore, to simplify the analysis, it was decided not to weight the individual observations. In the Washington Urban Scale Study each participant filled out activity diaries for one day. During this sampling day, whenever there was a new activity—e.g., the participant stopped reading a news- paper in the living room (end of an old activity) and went outside for a walk (beginning of a new activity)—the partic- ipant was required to record the start time of the new activity and describe it. The period between two entries in the activity diary is referred to as an activity segment. Each activity segment is regarded as one microenvironment. Based on information available, activity segments are grouped into seven METs: parking, public transportation, private car, pedestrian, shops, offices, and other. The rest of this section gives the heuristic definitions of these METs. The MET parking is restricted to indoor parking because only indoor parking con- centration data are available from the CO Microenvironment Study. The MET public transportation includes both bus and metrorail. Because both buses and met- rorails are monitored in the Microenvi- ronment Study, it is possible to consider them as distinct METs. However, in the evaluation of MET classification schemes, it was found unproductive to distinguish between these two METs; therefore, public transportation is considered as one MET without further refinement. The MET private car includes private cars, trucks, motorcycles, and vans. It is debatable whether this MET should be restricted to the narrow definition includ- ing private cars only. (Only private cars were monitored in the Microenvironment Study). The four modes of travel were grouped into one MET for two reasons. (1) The amount of time spent in trucks, motorcycles, and vans is very small com- pared with the amount of time spent in private cars. The total amount of time spent in the four modes of travel is 1.623 hours per person per day, out of which only 0.106 hours belong to the three modes other than private car, less than 7 percent of the total. (2) The MET concen- trations based on PEM for those four modes of travel are roughly similar. The difference between car and truck is small (about 1 ppm) and statistically insignifi- cant. The difference between car and van is not small (about 3 ppm) and is statisti- cally significant, but only seven people reported using a van in their travel. The MET pedestrian includes walking, biking, and jogging. It is again debatable whether jogging and biking should be grouped with walking into one MET. The amount of time spent jogging and biking is very small (less than 6 percent) com- pared with time spent walking. The dif- ference in concentrations between walk- ing and jogging is very small (less than 0.1 ppm) and statistically insignificant (t = 0.09). The difference between walking and biking is about 2 ppm and is statis- tically significant(t = 2.09). However, only five people reported biking during the sampling period. Therefore, they are combined into one MET. The MET shops consists of the activity segments reported as stores, shopping malls, and theaters in malls. The amount of time spent in the malls is small relative to the time spent in stores (less than 5 percent). The difference in concentration is very small (less than 0.5 ppm) and sta- tistically insignificant (t = 0.65). There- fore, they are combined into one MET. The MET offices consists of activity segments reported as offices. The MET other is a residual category for activity segments not considered above. The main component of activity segments in this MET is home. Because there are no microenvironment monitoring data cor- responding to these activity segments in the Microenvironment Study, this MET cannot be refined any further. CO Concentration Data The Washington CO Microenvironment Study was conducted in the metropolitan area during the winter of 1983. Primarily the study focused on the measurement of commuting microenvironments including parking garages, driving an automobile, riding a bus, riding a train, and walking. For automobile commutes, the study identified eight routes that "collectively extend 160 miles, about 8.6% of the total length (1,853 miles) of Washington's arterials and freeways." (In 1980, the Washington metropolitan area had 9,432 miles of streets and roads, including arte- rials, freeways, and locals). The routes selected were ones considered to be heavily traveled and predicted to have high CO exposures during rush hour periods. Although the routes were chosen to be representative of the arterials and free- ways, they might not be representative of all routes traveled by the general popula- tion. The empirical analysis found that for the commuting METs, the MET concen- trations from the CO Microenvironment Study are substantially higher than cor- responding MET concentrations based on personal monitoring from the Urban Scale Study. A Commuter Study Links Data Base was constructed from the commuting part of the Microenvironment Study. Each commuting route was divided into links ranging from one-half to three miles, each link being a physically distinct seg- ment of the route and regarded as an individual microenvironment. For quality assurance, several commuting trips used collocated monitors or insideX-outside pairs. In the paired situation, this study restricts attention to the primary monitor. The ME study included monitoring on some indoor microenvironments—shop- ping centers and offices. Additional moni- toring was conducted on walking micro- environments. The pedestrian data are combined with those from the commut- ing part of the study and analyzed as belonging to the same MET. One major exclusion in ME coverage was the home microenvironment. A residual MET, referred to as the MET other consists of all microenvironments not covered in the Microenvironment Study. For the exposure estimation, the microenvironment monitoring data are supplemented with personal monitoring data from the Urban Scale Study for those microenvironments not covered in the Microenvironment Study. ------- Observed MET Concentrations Concentrations Based on MEM For each MET except the MET other, the measurements from the Microenvi- ronment Study are aggregated into daily averages, which are used as the MET concentrations in further analysis. A total of 43 days were measured during the period from January 1 through March 18, 1983. As expected, the concentrations in parking garages are very high. The aver- age concentration exceeds the one-hour federal standard level of 35 ppm. The concentration in private cars is also fairly high. The average concentration exceeds the eight-hour federal standard level of 9 ppm. Public transportation, walking, and shops have moderate levels averaging about 5 ppm. Offices have low levels, averaging about 2 ppm. Concentrations Based on PM An alternative set of estimates of MET concentrations can be derived from the personal monitoring data in the Urban Scale Study. For each activity segment reported, the exposure for that activity segment is computed as the product of the duration of the activity segment and its average CO concentration. For each participant and for each MET, the expo- sures from the activity segments belong- ing to that MET are summed as the total exposure for that MET. The total exposure in the MET is divided by the total amount of time(hours) in the MET to getthe aver- age MET concentration. For certain activity segments, the CO concentrations are not available, possibly because of monitor failure. Those activity segments are not included in the calcula- tion of the MET concentrations. To assess the effect of those missing data, the amount of time belonging to such activity segments is calculated for each partici- pant and for each MET. For three METs— namely, shops, parking, and public trans- portation—none of the participants had any activity segments with missing CO concentration data. For the other three METs, some of the activity segments did not have CO concentrations. However, the amount of time for those activity seg- ments is very small. For the MET/wvVafe car, the average amount of time per par- ticipant for which CO concentration is missing is 0.004 hours. This is less than one-half of 1 percent of the average time of 1.623 hours spent in this MET. For the MET office, the average amount of time without CO concentration is 0.001 hours. again very small compared with the aver- age time of 0.269 hours in this MET. Missing concentration data is, therefore, of very little effect. Comparison of MET Concentrations The MET concentrations based on PM are substantially lower than the corres- ponding MET concentrations based on MEM, especially in the commuting METs. The most dramatic difference of all is the MET parking, in which there is a fourfold difference between PM and MEM. The average MET concentration for private cars based on MEM is more than twice the corresponding average concentration based on personal monitoring. It is sus- pected that incongruencies inherent in the matchups of activities to MEs, ME rush hour sampling, and monitor battery rundown contributed considerably to these differences. Comparison of Exposure Distribution Estimates The comparison between the two sets of summary statistics for the estimated exposures indicates that the two distribu- tions are substantially different. The average MEM exposure is about 40 per- cent higher than the average PM expo- sure. The difference is highly significant (t = 6.69 for the convolution method, t = 8.01 for the hybrid method). The compari- son between the summary statistics for the log estimated exposures also indi- cates major differences between the MEM and PM exposures. The average log MEM exposure is significantly higher than the average log PM exposure. For certain situations such as qualify- ing the health effects of air pollution, it is only necessary that the estimated expo- sure be a good predictor of actual expo- sure. In such instances the appropriate way to assess the validity of the estimated exposure is to examine the regression relationship between the actual and estimated exposures. The slope coeffi- cient in the regression relationship must be significant, indicating that the esti- mated exposure predicts the ranking of actual exposures, even though the mag- nitude might be off. Furthermore, the slope coefficient should be close to one, and the intercept coefficient close to zero, implying that the estimated exposures are approximately equal to the actual exposures. As usual the actual exposures are unknown, therefore one cannot adequate- ly define the relationship between the estimated exposures and the unobserved actual exposures. The PM exposure is used as the benchmark and the regres- sion relationship between the two esti- mated exposures is tested, regressing the PM exposure on the MEM exposure. On the original scale, the regression results show a very significant relation- ship between the PM and the MEM expo- sures. The convolution method gives a more significant slope coefficient than the hybrid method. This indicates that even though the MET concentrations from MEM and PM are substantially different, the MEM exposures are still useful for predicting the ranking of the PM expo- sures. In other words, given that a certain individual's MEM exposure is high, it is reasonable to expect that his PM expo- sure is also high. The R2 statistic for the convolution method is about 40 percent, indicating that the MEM exposure is not only a sig- nificant predictor for the PM exposure but is also an informative predictor, explain- ing an important fraction of the variability in the PM exposure. The hybrid method has a much smaller R2. With the convolu- tion method, the slope coefficient in this regression is about 0.5, substantially smaller than one, and the intercept coef- ficient is about 0.5 ppm, significantly larger than zero. For simplicity the esti- mated regression model may be approxi- mated as follows: PM exposure — 0.5 + 0.5 x MEM exposure. At low levels (less than 1 ppm), the MEM exposure underestimates the PM expo- sures. For example, for an individual with MEM exposure equal to zero, the regres- sion model predicts that his actual expo- sure is probably about 0.5 ppm. At higher levels (more than 1 ppm), the MEM expo- sure overestimates the PM exposure. For example, for an individual with MEM exposure equal to 10 ppm, the regression model predicts that his PM exposure is probably about 5.5 ppm, substantially lower than the MEM exposure. Because the average MEM exposure is about 2 ppm, for most people the MEM exposure overestimates the PM exposure accord- ing to the regression model. On the log scale, too, the regression results show a significant relationship between the MEM exposure and the PM exposure, indicating that the MEM expo- sures successfully predict the ranking of the PM exposures. The R2 statistic for the convolution method is about 60 percent, indicating that the log MEM exposure is 4 ------- fairly powerful in explaining an important fraction of the variability of the log PM exposure. Conclusions Methods for estimating population CO exposures using microenvironment mon- itoring (MEM) data, personal monitoring (PM) data, and activity data have been presented and results compared. The MEM/activity data exposures aver- aged about 40 percent higher than the exposures estimated by the PM method. The observed difference in the estimated distributions is probably specific to this data base and should not be generalized. Given the imperfect matches of micro- environments and problems associated with personal monitoring, it is impressive that the MEM exposure is such a success- ful predictor of PM exposure, especially on the log scale on which the MEM expo- sure derived by the convolution method has the correct span relative to the PM exposure and the drift is constant over the range. The convolution method is preferable to the hybrid method for this data set due to the high variability within the MET concentrations. Naihua Duan is with Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA 90406; the EPA authors Harold Sauls (also the EPA Project Officer, see below) and David Holland are with the Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory, Research Triangle Park. NC 27711. The complete report, entitled "Application of the Microenvironment Monitoring Approach to Assess Human Exposure to Carbon Monoxide," (Order No. PB 85-228 955/AS; Cost: $11.50, subject to change) will be available only from: National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 Telephone: 703-487-4650 The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at: Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING Of f ICE: 1985/559-111/20660 ------- United States Environmental Protection Agency Center for Environmental Research Information Cincinnati OH 45268 ^-r^x US.OFFiC.ALf.'JA; • ''C:-->E»ALT-! i'S JJOViliP* ' - • " "i'^t. i OH / p«IVATf ! ..;£ r.;o"' " r> n '? • • ' -; 5 C - :< Official Business Penalty for Private Use $300 EPA/600/S4-85/046 IL ------- |