OOOR86001
                   REPORT
                     TO
      GREAT LAKES NATIONAL PROGRAM OFFICE
 UNITED STATES  ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
  MODELING THE BEHAVIOR AND FATE OF NUTRIENTS
   AND TRACE CONTAMINANTS IN THE UPPER GREAT
           LAKES  CONNECTING CHANNELS
                NOVEMBER 1986

    INTERAGENCY AGREEMENT DW 13931213-01-0

                   BETWEEN

 GREAT LAKES  ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LABORATORY
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
             ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN
                     AND
      GREAT LAKES NATIONAL PROGRAM OFFICE
 UNITED STATES  ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
               CHICAGO, ILLINOIS

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                               TABLE OF CONTENTS

                                                                           Page

INTRODUCTION	 3

QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT

    J. A. Derecki - Unsteady Flow Model of Entire Lake St. Clair River 	 5

    J. A. Derecki - St. Clair and Detroit River Current Measurements	 6

    D. J. Schwab and P.C. Liu - Development of a Shallow Water
        Numerical Wave Model for Lake St. Clair 	 7
    A. H. elites, D. J. Schwab and T. D. Fontaine - Modeling Particle
        Transport in Lake St. Clair  	 8

    T. D. Fontaine, G. A. Lang and S. J. Hull - Generic Contaminant
        Model for Lake St. Clair  	 9

    T. F. Nalepa, W. S. Gardner and M. A. Quigley - Phosphorus
        Release from Sediments of Lake St. Clair	13

    P. F. Landrum and T. F. Nalepa - Toxicokinetics of Organic
        Xenobiotics in the Mayfly Larvae, Hexagenia	14

    J. A. Robbins - Transport and Fate of Particle-Associated Tracers
        in Lake St. Clair and the Connecting Channels	18

    N. Hawley and B. Lesht - Sediment Transport and Resuspension
        in Lake St. Clair	21

    T. D. Fontaine  - Risk and Uncertainty Analysis of Contaminant and
        Phosphorus Models for the Connecting Channels and lake St.
        Clair	23

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                                 INTRODUCTION

The Upper Great Lakes Connecting Channels Study (UGLCCS) is a multi-agency,
multi-national study of the St. Marys River, the St. Clair River, Lake St.
Clair, and the Detroit River.  The goals of the study include:

1.  Determining the present environmental status of the study area;

2.  Identifying and quantifying sources of ecosystem degradation in the study
    area;

3.  Assessing the adequacy of existing or planned control programs;

4.  Developing long-term monitoring programs for assessing the effectiveness of
    control programs;

5.  Facilitating the development of remedial action plans by the the Province of
    Ontario and the State of Michigan.

Towards accomplishing these goals, the Great Lakes Environmental Research
Laboratory (GLERL) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  (NOAA)
has designed modeling, field, and laboratory studies of the connecting channels
study area and processes therein.  Through the Activities Integration Committee
or other less formal avenues, GLERL's studies have been carefully coordinated
with proposed or ongoing studies of other agencies in order to maximize
scientific insights.  A cross reference showing the correspondence between
GLERL's studies and UGLCCS activity numbers is provided in Table 1.  In some
cases the GLERL studies are associated with more than one of the UGLCCS
activities.

As part of the NOAA - EPA interagency agreement, GLERL will provide the Great
Lakes National Program Office (GLNPO) with written quarterly reports describing
progress towards meeting the goals of the study, oral presentations summarizing
each year's work and a written report at the completion of the study.
Scientists at GLERL will also submit the results of their work to professional
scientific journals during the course of the study.  Summarized in this document
is research progress for the period September - November 1986.

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Table 1.  Correspondence of GLERL Activities with UGLCCS Activities.

GLERL Activity                                             UGLCCS Activity No.


Unsteady Flow Model of Entire St. Glair River 	    C. 5

St. Clair and Detroit River Current Measurements 	    C.4

Development of a Shallow Water Numerical Wave Model
for Lake St. Clair 	    C.4

The Currents of Lake St. Clair 	    C.4

Modeling Particle Transport in Lake St. Clair 	    C.2.C.4

Phosphorus Mass Balance Model for Lake St. Clair 	    C.I

Generic Contaminant Model for Lake St. Clair 	    C.1,C.2

Phosphorus Release from Sediments of Lake St. Clair 	    H.20

Toxicokinetics of Organic Xenobiotics in the Mayfly Larvae,
Hexagenia  	    H.16

Transport and Fate of Particle Associated Tracers in Lake St. Clair
and the Connecting Channels 	    G.1,G.2

Sediment Transport and Resuspension in Lake St.  Clair 	    G.3

Risk and Uncertainty Analysis of Contaminant and Phosphorus Models
for the Connecting Channels and Lake St. Clair 	    C. 3

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                  QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT - NOVEMBER 1986

1.  Title:  Unsteady Flow Model of Entire St. Glair River

2.  Principal Investigators:  Jan A. Derecki

3.  Organization:  Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory - NOAA-
                   2300 Washtenaw Ave.,  Ann Arbor, MI 48104

4.  Objectives:  To develop an unsteady flow model of the St. Clair River from
    Lake St. Clair to Lake Huron including tributary stream inputs capable of
    simulating flows on hourly and daily time scales.

5.  Progress Since Last Report:  Continued work on calibration of the model
    for the entire river (from Lake Huron to Lake St. Clair) by incorporating
    the separation of river flow through the main delta channels.

6.  Problems Encountered and Proposed Solutions:  Encountered some problems in
    the extension of model through the delta region, which may affect planned
    completion (December 1986) of the entire river model.

7.  Projected Activities for Next Quarter:  Complete work on model development
    for the river delta.

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                  QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT - NOVEMBER 1986

1.  Title:  St.  Clair and Detroit River Current Measurements

2.  Principal Investigators:   Jan A. Derecki

3.  Organization:  Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory - NOAA-
                   2300 Washtenaw Ave., Ann Arbor, Ml 48104

4.  Objectives:   (1)  To determine the winter flow variability and
    characteristics of the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers;  (2) To use the
    measured data to verify and/or recalibrate the existing St. Clair and
    Detroit River mathematical transient models.

5.  Progress Since Last Report:  Continued collection, analysis, and
    monitoring of current meter velocities in the Detroit and St. Clair
    Rivers.  All three EM current meters in operation during summer (two in
    St. Clair and one in Detroit Rivers) indicated large reductions in the
    velocity readings (up to 50%) due to weed effects; this type of meter is
    not suitable for prolonged continuous operation in these rivers during
    heavy weed season.  The acoustic profiler was deployed in the Detroit
    River on November 12, 1986, replacing one of the EM current meters.  At
    the same time (November 12-14), the three EM meters were checked and
    cleaned by divers for the winter season.

6.  Problems Encountered and Proposed Solutions:  The EM current meters
    require frequent cleaning by divers during heavy weed season and are not
    practical for continuous operations during such periods.

7.  Projected Activities for Next Quarter:  Continue data collection and
    analysis, with monitoring of current meter results.

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                  QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT - NOVEMBER 1986


1.  Title:  Development of a Shallow Water Numerical Wave Model for Lake St.
            Clair

2.  Principal Investigators:   D. J. Schwab and P. C. Liu

3.  Organization:  NOAA/GLERL

4.  Objectives:  (1) To modify the GLERL Wave Prediction Model to account for
    shallow bottom effects; (2) to relate the observed waves to sediment
    resuspension.

5.  Progress Since Last Report:  Wave energy spectra have been computed for
    all time series measured at the GLERL stations (hourly values for the
    months of September, October, and November 1985).  The GLERL Wave
    Prediction Model was modified to take account of shallow water effects
    according to the theory of Kitaigorodskii.  Tests of the model behavior
    for several ideal cases were compared to results from other shallow water
    ocean wave models in the literature.  Both the deep and shallow water
    versions of the model were then run with observed winds for September,
    October, and November 1985.  Even though observed wavelength to depth
    ratios are often as low as 0.2 - 0.3 in Lake St. Clair, the deep water
    model appears to perform quite acceptably.  The shallow water modification
    systematically underestimates the highest waves.

6.  Problems Encountered and Proposed Solutions:   None

7.  Projected Activities for Next Quarter:  Specific cases of wave generation,
    growth, propagation and dissipation will be examined in detail in
    conjunction with CCIW data to determine more precisely the limits of deep
    water theory.

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                  QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT - NOVEMBER 1986


1.  Title:  Modeling Particle Transport in Lake St. Clair

2.  Principal Investigators:  A. H. elites, D. J. Schwab, and T. D. Fontaine

3.  Organization:  NOAA/GLERL

4.  Objectives:  (1) To use the GLERL Numerical Circulations Models to
    identify particulate transport pathways in Lake St. Clair; (2) to provide
    information on the physical environment in Lake St. Clair in terms of
    current distribution patterns.

5.  Progress Since Last Report:  Circulation patterns in Lake St. Clair at
    three hour intervals have been calculated for the period May-November,
    1985, using winds observed at CCIW met buoys.  Currents derived from these
    circulation patterns are being used for two purposes, (1) to drive the
    TOXIWASP pollution model and (2) to estimate the effect of wind-driven
    current on the dispersion of particles entering the Lake from tributaries.
    Tracer particles are released at the mouth of each tributary at 6 hour
    intervals and tracked until they leave the lake.  Dispersion is estimated
    by plotting the position of all particles released from single tributary
    at a fixed time after release (one day after release, two days after
    release, etc.).  This plot gives an indication of the probability that the
    water at a certain point in the lake originated from a certain tributary a
    certain time ago.

6.  Problems Encountered and Proposed Solutions:  None

7.  Projected Activities for Next Quarter:  Synthesize results into a
    scientific report.

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                  QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT - NOVEMBER 1986


1.  Title:  Generic Contaminant Model for Lake St. Clair

2.  Principal Investigators:  T. D. Fontaine, G. A. Lang and S. J. Hull

3.  Organization:  Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory-NOAA
                   2300 Washtenaw Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI  48104

4.  Objectives:  (1) To develop a generic model that will aid in understanding
    contaminant transport, behavior, and fate in the study area; (2) to
    develop or obtain data which can be used to quantify the major inputs,
    losses and storages of contaminants in the connecting channels;  (3) to
    test models of contaminant transport, behavior, and fate with whatever
    data become available, if adequate.

5.  Progress Since Last Report:

    A.  One-Box Generic Contaminant Model.

        The EPA Chemical Transport and Fate Model, TOXIWASP, is being used to
        simulate contaminant residence time, concentration, fate, exposure and
        environmental effects in the Lake St. Clair system for a range of
        physicochemical contaminant properties and loading scenarios.  Loads
        are applied as variable duration, step input functions.  The lake is
        modeled as a completely mixed, one-box system using average physical
        lake data.   The results of these studies will be used to generate sets
        of graphs to aid in developing management strategies for an array of
        organic compounds. Initial investigations considered the effect of
        chemical partition coefficients, decay constants, diffusion
        coefficients and contaminant load duration and magnitude on the time
        to remove 90% of the added contaminant mass (Figure 1).  These studies
        indicate the following:

        1.  for a given duration of loading the magnitude of the load does not
            affect the time to remove 90% of the added mass due to the
            linearity of the transformation terms,
        2.  the time to remove 90% of the added mass increases with increasing
            chemical partition coefficient,
        3.  the time to remove 90% of the added mass decreases with increasing
            chemical decay rate,
        4.  the time to remove 90% of the added mass decreases with increasing
            sediment-water exchange rate for medium to high partition
            coefficients,
        5.  the sediment-water exchange rate has little effect on the time to
            remove 90% of the added mass for low partition coefficients; i.e.,
            the flux of chemical leaving the system via outflow dominates.

        Currently,  chemical concentration versus time plots are being
        generated for the water column and active sediment layer.  In addition
        to the parameters identified above, the initial water column and
        sediment layer concentrations and the load magnitude are also expected
        to impact the predicted concentration time-series.

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    B.   Multi-Segment Contaminant Model.

        Much effort during the past quarter has been directed towards amassing
        and formatting Lake St. Clair physical data for the 126 segments (42
        water column, 42 mixed layer, 42 deep layer).  These data included
        segment depths and volumes, interfacial areas and mixing lengths,  and
        suspended solids loading rates.  In addition, the wind induced flow
        fields generated by D. Schwab's hydrodynamic model had to be re-
        formatted to conform to the space- and time-scales of our model.

        Chloride was used as a conservative ion to verify the transport and
        diffusion components of the model.  The model was driven by chloride
        loads estimated from data collected by G. Bell during a cruise in
        July, 1974.  According to wind measurements made during the cruise, a
        northeasterly wind of 6 m/s was used to drive the flow field.
        Calculated concentrations from the model compare well with the depth-
        averaged, in-lake chloride data collected on the same cruise (Figure
        2).  Simulations generated using other wind speeds and directions were
        in less agreement with the observed values.

        The model was also used to simulate the water column and sediment
        distributions of 137-Cesium in Lake St. Clair.  Because Cesium
        partitions similarly to organic contaminants, it can be used to
        determine how well the model will predict temporal and spatial
        distributions of actual contaminants.  Data were collected from
        sediment cores taken by J. Robbins.  Two assumptions were made: 1) the
        solids flux into the active layer equals the solids flux out of the
        active layer, and 2) the chemical partition coefficient is represented
        as a function of the sediment type in the active layer.  Initial
        results indicate very good agreement between calculated and observed
        137-Cesium concentrations.

        Current efforts include determining the effects of stochastic flows
        vs. steady flows on the fate and transport of contaminants in Lake St.
        Clair.

6.   Problems Encountered and Proposed Solutions:  Lack of available water
    column data for all three organic contaminants, lack of loading data for
    HCB and DCS, and lack of agreement between time of PCB measurements and
    loading data.

7.   Projected Activities for Next Quarter:  Work will continue with the one-
    box model in an effort to generate concentration profiles over time for
    several chemical and loading conditions.  In addition, a simple biomass
    partitioning model will be incorporated to investigate bioaccumulation of
    contaminant by aquatic organisms.  Work will continue using the 126-box
    model to simulate the fate and transport of three organochlorines (PCB,
    DCS, and HCB).
                                      10

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ii
2
JJ
/v
/  D
= 10-7
= io-5

100    too    too
      LoadngTlnM (days)
           A.
                                                                    B.
                                                                       D = 10'
                                                                       D = 10
                                                                             ,-5
              Loading Time (days)
                    C.
                                                    W       100       *0
                                                       Loadng Tfcn* fdaya)

                                                            D.
            Figure 1.  The effect  of varying chemical partition coefficient  (KP),
            decay rate, and diffusion rate (D)  on the time to remove 90% of  the  added
            chemical mass.  Diffusion coefficient units are cm /sec.  a) KP  =  10
            L/kg, decay - 0.0 day  ..,  representative of benzo[a]pyrene, b) KP - 10
            L/kg, decay - 0.0 day   ,  representative of di-n-butyl-phthalate  c)  KP -
            10  L/kg, decay -^0.03 day"  ,  representative of DDE, d) KP = 10  L/kg,
            decay =0.03 day   ,  representative  of benzo[a]anthracene.
                                               11

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Figure 2.   a) Lake St. Clair depth-averaged chloride concentrations (mg/1)
observed during 15-24 July, 1974 cruise.   Dashed lines represent
approximate contours of data,  b) Model-calculated chloride concentrations
based on constant 6 m/s NE wind conditions.
                                  12

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                  QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT - NOVEMBER 1986


1.  Title:    Phosphorus Release from Sediments of Lake St. Clair

2.  Principal Investigators:  T. F. Nalepa and W. S. Gardner

3.  Organization:  Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, NOAA,
                   2300 Washtenaw Ave., Ann Arbor, MI  48104

4.  Objectives:  (1)  To quantify the release of phosphorus from sediments in
    Lake St. Clair.  (2)  To determine the importance of sediment phosphorus
    release relative to other sources.  (3)  To determine the role of benthic
    invertebrates in sediment phosphorus release.

5.  Progress Since Last Report:  Experiments to determine phosphorus excretion
    by the mussel Lampsilis radiata siliauodea were completed.  Excretion
    rates were measured on individuals from two sampling sites on six sampling
    dates.  Seasonal trends in excretion rates or consistent differences
    between the stations were not apparent (Table 1).

    A lake-wide quantitative survey of mussel populations in Lake St. Clair
    was conducted in September.  Divers collected a total of 285 mussels at 30
    stations.  This data will be used to assess abundance, composition,
    biomass, and production.

    Preliminary work was conducted to determine the feasibility of measuring
    particle size selection and filtration rates of mussels using the Coulter
    Counter.  The experiments were highly successful, and showed that mussels
    are capable of filtering 1,200 ml of water per hour and can select for
    particles less than 1 micron in size.  A more detailed study is planned
    for 1987.

6.  Problems Encountered and Proposed Solutions:  None

7.  Projected Activities for Next Quarter:  Analyze data and begin writing
    papers.


Table 1.  Mean  (+ S.E.) excretion rates of phosphorus (nmole pgmhr) by the
mussel Lampsilis radiata siliquodea in 1986.  The substrate at Station 1
consisted of sand, while the substrate at Station 24 was silt.  The number of
individual measurements on each date is given in parentheses.


Date                        Station 1                   Station 24
Apr
May
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
30
19
15
4
16
15
46
22
15
45
65
54
.2
.7
.7
.1
.4
.8
 13
+ 3
 3
 16
+ 27
 25
.9
.7
.7
.3
.3
.0
(6)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(5)
(5)
18

13
52
58
64
.3

.9
.0
.8
.4
 1.
-
 2.
 12
-I- 11
+ 13
8

7
.
.
.
(3)

(5)
2 (5)
9 (5)
5 (5)
                                      13

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                   QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT - NOVEMBER 1986
1-  Title:  Toxicokinetics of Organic Xenobiotics in the Mayfly Larvae,
            Hexagenia

2.  Principle Investigators:   P. F. Landrum and T. F. Nalepa

3.  Organization:  Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, NOAA, 2300
                   Washtenaw Ave. Ann Arbor, MI 48104.

4.  Objectives: (1) To assemble experimental systems for measurement of
    respiration and toxicokinetics.  2. To determine the toxicokinetics of
    selected PAH and PCB congeners in Hexagenia.

5.  Progress Since Last Report:  The monthly collections of Hexagenia have
    been completed for the field year.  The last two collections were made at
    the end of September and the middle of November.  The toxicokinetic
    experiments have been completed.  The data analysis continues and is
    expected to be complete within the next quarter (Table 1).   The uptake
    from water for Benzo(a)pyrene and hexachlorobiphenyl appear to be
    reasonably constant over the course of the season.  Phenanthrene shows
    considerable variability.   The reason for this variability is not clear.
    The depuration rate constants are highest in the late September collection
    for all compounds.  These changes appear to be related to both temperature
    and season.

    In addition to the experiments with field collected organisms, a
    cooperative study with Dr. Mary Henry at the U.  S. Fish and Wildlife
    Service is under way to examine the toxicokinetics of laboratory reared
    Hexagenia.  This will permit studies of organisms that are the same age.
    Furthermore, this study will permit the examination of organisms at
    several instar levels.   These data should help with the interpretation of
    the data from the field collected organisms.   The first of the experiments
    in this series has been completed and the data is summarized in Table 2.
    In addition to the toxicokinetics, the respiration of the organisms is
    also being determined.   This study will hopefully permit development of
    the relationship between the uptake from water and the rate of oxygen
    consumption.  The oxygen and size relationships will hopefully be useful
    for determining the main variables affecting the variability in the
    accumulation data.

    The data collected from these experiments revealed that uptake rate
    constants are inversely proportional to the mass of the organisms.  It is
    assumed that small animals hctve a large surface area to body ratio which
    accounts for the extremely large uptake observed.  Estimates of uptake
    rate constants were based on initial rates and will need to be
    recalculated with a non-linear two compartment model because depuration is
    significant within the  time frame of the experiments.  Estimates of the
    uptake rate constants will increase when the two compartment model is
    used.   Currently the uptake rate constants,  as calculated with the model
    using initial rate assumptions, are 5 and 14 times greater than those
                                      14

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    determined previously for phenanthrene and benzo(a)pyrene respectively.   A
    second experiment will be performed in late December.

6.   Problems Encountered and Proposed Solutions:   None

7.   Prelected Activities for Next Quarter:  The remainder  of the data from the
    kinetics studies will be analyzed and construction of  the predictive
    simulation model will be initiated.
                                     15

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May
                                    Table 1

                Seasonal Uptake and Elimination Rate Constants
                             for Hexaeenia limbata
          Rate
Month   Constant  Benzo(a)pyrene    Phenanthrene    Hexachlorobiphenyl  Temp.
Ku
68.5  11.2
131.1  46.8
47.5  23.9      10

June

July

Aug

Septd

Septd

Nov

Kdb
Ku
Kd
Ku
Kd
Ku
Kd
Ku
Kd
Ku
Kd
Ku
Kd
0.011  0.003
67.0  28.0
0.006  0.002
101.9  32.6
0.013  0.002
65.1  29.1
lost
NC
NC
76.3  41.0
0.028  0.001
40.9  30.6
0.010  0.001
0.032  0.004
43.3  12.0
0.0076  0.0016
57.5  5.0
0.029  0.002
11.9  4.0
lost
NC
NC
33.0  8.0
0.067  0.008
34.2  7.2
0.026  0.002
0.007  0.001
44.2  8.0
0.005  0.002
40.8  37.3
0.005  0.001
40.8  37.3
0.007  0.001
NC
NC
95.0  17.3
0.017  0.002
45.5  16.1
0.004  0.0006

15

15

20

20

20

10

  Ku has been corrected for sorption to dissolved organic carbon and has units
     f  T  -1 , -1
    of mL g   h
  Kd has units of h
  Temperature is in degrees centigrade.
  The first collection in September was made during the first week of the
  month while the second collection was made at the end of the month.
NC = not calculated.
                                      16

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                                    Table 2

                Summary of Toxicokinetics Study with Hexagenia
                           Reared in the Laboratory
                     using Benzo(a)pyrene and Phenanthrene
Parameter              Benzo(a)pyrene             Phenanthrene

Ku (ml g"1 h'1)        633.6  238.4              172.7  69.7

Kd (h"1)               0.027  0.008              0.094  0.012

log BCF (Ku * Kd"1)    4.37                       3.26
Half Life (h)          25.8                       7.3
Mean animal size - 2.48  1.35
Respiration - 0.51  0.075 pg 09 mg~  h"
                               -1  -1
0- clearance = 90.3  13.2 mL g   h
                                      17

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                    QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT - NOVEMBER 1986
1.   Title:  Transport and Fate of Particle-Associated Tracers in Lake St.
            Clair and the Connecting Channels.

2.   Principal Investigator:  J. A. Robbins

3.   Organization:  Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory-NOAA
                   2300 Washtenaw Ave., Ann Arbor, MI 48104.

4.   Objectives:  (1) To determine levels of selected stable and radioactive
    tracers in sediments;  (2) To determine patterns of accumulation and
    storage of tracers in the system;  (3) To determine the extent and
    intensity of local integration processes; (4) To determine system response
    times and "trapping efficiency"; (5) to reconstruct where possible the
    history of contamination of the system by study of dated cores; (6) To
    provide an experimental basis for modeling the role of sediments in the
    regulation of contaminant levels;  (7) to develop and apply mathematical
    models for the long-term transport and fate of tracers in the lake.

5.   Progress Since Last Report:   (1) All cores with the exception of the
    Johnson's Bay core (JB-85) have now been counted. All data are entered
    into computer files, (2) summary tables have been developed, (3)
    contouring programs have been developed and run to provide figures such as
    Fig. 1 which shows the activity of the radionuclide in surface sediments
    and the total storage, (4) two cores from Lake George have been collected
    and already analyzed for Cesium-137. Fig. 2. shows the distribution in
    core LG-86-1 along with the model  distribution which yields a.
    sedimentation rate of  about 0.7 cm/yr. (5) Work has begun on a journal
    article by myself and  Barry Oliver which will combine the results of
    radiometric measurements with the  chlorinated organic data.

6.   Problems Encountered and Proposed  Solutions:  Low activities of the radio
    nuclide require long counting times for adequate statistics. Analysis time
    is about 2 samples per day per counter. To facilitate turnaround, samples
    are counted on a second counter originally reserved for other research
    projects.

7.   Projected Activities for Next Quarter:  (1) I have received two additional
    sets of samples from Barry Oliver: sediment trap material from Lake St.
    Clair collected by Murray Charleton and surface sediment samples collected
    nine years earlier (1976) by CCIW from many of the same sites as the 1985
    study. I will begin analyzing these samples on a reduced priority basis
    starting in this quarter. (2) I will continue work on the journal article
    and prepare visual and graphical materials for presentation of results at
    the forthcoming IAGLR meeting and UGLCCS workshops.  (3) I will begin to
    coordinate the radionuclide and chlorinated organic data with the
    elemental analyses of R.  Rossmann.
                                      18

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                          orj Mdtntnto h MS.
Figure 1. Activity  of Cs '37 in surface sediments
and total accumulation of Cs-137.
                      19

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Figure 2. Vertical distribution of Cs-137 in a core
from Lake George. The high sedimentation rate and
excellent preservation of the fallout cesium record
make this an excellent site for reconstruction of
upstream contamination history.
                       20

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                   QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT - NOVEMBER 1986

1.  Title:  Sediment Transport and Resuspension in Lake St. Clair

2.  Principal Investigators:  N. Hawley and B. Lesht

3.  Organization:  Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory - NOAA
                   2300 Washtenaw Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI  48104

4.  Objectives:   (1) To make observations of bottom currents, wave action, and
    sediment concentration in Lake St.  Clair; (2) to experimentally determine
    erosion rates as a function of current velocity; (3) To use these data to
    determine sediment resuspension and transport in Lake St. Clair.

5.  Progress since Last Report:

    a)  The three tripods deployed July 10 were retrieved on August 7; all
    worked successfully.  The S4 current meters also provided data, but at
    this point we don't know how good it is.

    b)  The tripods were redeployed October 14; mine (stations 1 and 71) were
    retrieved October 29, Lesht's (station 75) on November 4.

    c)  Results of the preliminary analysis of the spring deployments will be
    reported in two papers to be presented at the fall American Geophysical
    Union meeting.

6.  Problems Encountered and Proposed Solutions:

    The seaflume was not deployed because a suitable vessel was not
    available.

7.  Projected Activities for Next Quarter:

    Analyze data and begin writing report.
                                      21

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          r. 1 Very approximate  locations  of previous
Cof"   sediment sampling  locations in Lake St.  Clair,

         A = CCIW  (1970,1974);! =MOE (1983)
                 = U. Windsor  (1984)
                             22

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                  QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT - NOVEMBER 1986


1.  Title:  Risk and Uncertainty Analysis of Contaminant and Phosphorus
            Models for the Connecting Channels and Lake St. Clair

2.  Principal Investigator:  T. D. Fontaine

3.  Organization:  Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory - NOAA-
                   2300 Washtenaw Ave., Ann Arbor, MI  48104

4.  Objectives:  (1) To use phosphorus models developed in other tasks for
    evaluating risks and uncertainties associated with phosphorus management
    strategies; (2) To use contaminant models developed in other tasks for
    evaluating risks and uncertainties associated with contaminant management
    strategies.

5.  Progress Since Last Report:  Work on this task will begin as soon as
    sufficient information can be gleaned from phosphorus and generic con-
    taminant modeling tasks.   Management alternatives that are generated as
   'part of the Upper Great Lakes Connecting Channels Study will be evaluated
    as part of this task.  Such alternatives might include changing the
    quantity, composition or timing of external pollutant inputs, altering ice
    breaking or shipping schedules, removal of in-place pollutant sources by
    dredging, or protection and enhancement of wetland areas.  Uncertainty
    analyses will be conducted using Monte Carlo or related techniques.  In
    the case of pollutant fate and transport models this would involve
    assigning probability distributions to loading rates, and then sampling
    repeatedly from this distribution over a large number of simulation runs
    to give a probable range of system behavior.  Conducting this type of
    analysis will allow prediction of the probability distributions of
    toxicant concentrations to which an organism might be exposed.  Combining
    this knowledge with information on the toxicity of a pollutant will allow
    calculations of risk to be made.  Having defined exposure probabilities
    and toxicities, first-cut predictions of toxic effects, bioaccumulation
    etc., could be made by comparing modeled exposures with the results of
    laboratory and in situ exposure-toxicity tests.

6.  Problems Encountered and Proposed Solutions:  None

7.  Projected Activities for Next Quarter:  To continue work on phosphorus and
    generic contaminant models so that sufficient information will be
    available for testing management alternatives.
                                      23

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