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United States Office of Research and EPA/600/R-01/041
Environmental Protection Development September 2001
Agency Washington, DC 20460 www.epa.gov/ncerqa
c/EPA Proceedings
2001 STAR Global Change
Progress Review for 1999
and 2000 Grant Recipients
September 20-21,2001
Washington, DC
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Region 5, Library (PL-12J)
77 West Jackson Boulevard, 12th Floor
Chicago. IL 60604-3590
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2001 STAR Global Change Progress Review for 1999 and 2000 Grant Recipients
Table of Contents
Introduction v
1999 Integrated Assessments of the Potential Consequences of Climate Change Grantees
Vulnerability Assessment of San Joaquin Basin Water Supply, Ecological Resources,
and Rural Economy Due to Climate Change and Variability 3
John Dracup, Richard Howitt, Leslie Grober
Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change on the South Florida Environment 5
Mark A. Harwell, Wendell P. Cropper, Jr., JeraldS. Ault, John H. Gentile,
David Letson, Diego Lirman, Jiangang Luo, John Wang, Jayantha Obeysekera,
Don DeAngelis
Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact in the Mackinaw River Watershed, Illinois 6
Edwin E. Herricks, J. W. Eheart, Kieran P. Donaghy, Brian Orland
An Integrated Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Rocky Mountain
National Park and Its Gateway Community 7
N. Thompson Hobbs, Dennis Ojima, JohnLoomis, Stephan Weiler, David M. Theobald,
Alan P. Covich, Jill S. Baron, Thomas J. Stohlgren, Michael B. Coughenour
Infrastructure Systems, Services and Climate Change: Integrated Impacts and Response
Strategies for the Boston Metropolitan Area 9
PaulH. Kirshen, Matthias Ruth
Impact of Climate on the Lower Yakima River Basin 11
Lance Vail, Mike Scott, Kristi Branch, Duane Nietzel, L. Ruby Leung, Mike Scott,
Mark Wigmosta, Claudio Stockle, Keith Saxton
2000 Assessing the Consequences of Human Activities and a Changing Climate Grantees
Close-Coupling of Ecosystem and Economic Models: Adaptation of Central U.S. Agriculture
to Climate Change 15
John M. Antle, Susan M. Capalbo, Sidn Mooney, William Hunt, Keith Paustian,
Edward T. Elliot
Implications of Climate Change for Regional Air Pollution, Health Effects and Energy
Consumption Behavior 16
J.H. Ellis, B.F. Hobbs, J.F. Patz, J. Samet, M. Schwab, F. Joutz
Modeling Heat and Air Quality Impacts of Changing Urban Land Uses and Climate 17
Patrick L. Kinney, William D. Soleki, Roni Avissar, S.T. Rao, Christopher Small
Climatic and Human Impacts on Fire Regimes in Forests and Grasslands
ofthe U.S. Southwest 18
Barbara J. Morehouse, Thomas W. Swetnam, Jonathan T. Overpeck,
Stephen R. Yool, Barron J. Orr, Gary L. Christopherson
Index 19
The Office of Research and Development's National Center for Environmental Research iii
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2001 STAR Global Change Progress Review for 1999 and 2000 Grant Recipients
Introduction
The mission of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is to protect public health
and to safeguard and improve the natural environment—air, water, and land upon which life depends.
Achievement of this mission requires the application of sound science to the assessment of environmental
problems and to the evaluation of possible solutions. The National Center for Environmental Research's
(NCER) Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Program at EPA is committed to providing the best products
in high-priority areas of scientific research through significant support for long-term research.
One high-priority research program identified in the Office of Research and Development's Strategic
Plan is Global Change. In support of the Global Change Program, the STAR program issued a Request for
Applications (RFA) in 1999 and 2000. The 1999 RFA solicited the development and demonstration of inte-
grated assessment methodologies that address the positive and negative consequences of climate change at
the regional or local scales. The 2000 RFA solicited the development and application of models that integrate
human dimensions with natural processes associated with human-induced and natural climate change and
variability.
Annual progress reviews such as this one will allow investigators to interact with one another and dis-
cuss progress and findings with EPA and other interested parties. If you have any questions regarding the
program, please contact the Acting Program Manager, Vivian Turner (turner.vivian@epa.gov).
The Office of Research and Development's National Center for Environmental Research
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1999 Integrated Assessments of the Potential
Consequences of Climate Change Grantees
-------
2001 STAR Global Change Progress Review for 1999 and 2000 Grant Recipients
Vulnerability Assessment of San Joaquin Basin
Water Supply, Ecological Resources, and Rural
Economy Due to Climate Change and Variability
John Dracup ', Richard Howitt2, and Leslie Grober 3
'University of California, Berkeley, CA; ^University of California, Davis, CA; ^Central Valley Regional Water
Qualify Control Board, Sacramento, CA
The two main objectives of this collaborative
research project are to: (1) assess the vulnerability of
water supply, water demand, water quality, ecosystem
health, and socioeconomic welfare within the San
Joaquin River Basin (SJRB) as a function of climate;
and (2) provide guidance in the formulation of effec-
tive management strategies to mitigate the range of
potential impacts due to climate change and variability.
This study updates and advances previous stud-
ies on climate change in California. Recent general cir-
culation model (GCM) climate projections of present-
day control climate and changing climate, due to a 1
percent annual increase in carbon dioxide from present
concentrations, are being used. Data from these projec-
tions, produced by the Hadley Centre using HadCM2,
are being used in a dynamic climate downscaling pro-
cedure, where the GCM data (i.e., precipitation and
temperature) provide boundary and initial conditions
for finer scale regional climate models (RCMs) that
produce basin-area average precipitation and tempera-
ture data for basin-scale hydrologic models. Output
from the hydrologic models drives subsequent impact
assessment modeling. Previous studies focused only on
the water resource impacts due to climate change/
variability. This study goes beyond the scope of pre-
vious studies by including a suite of resources in the
integrated analysis of the impacts of climate change/
variability in the SJRB. Finally, this study includes the
software packaging of the impact assessment model
system into a decision support system that will be
made available to state/federal resource trustees and
provide assistance to CALFED (a joint California State
and Federal program designed to resolve water issues
in Northern California) on water quality and ecosystem
management issues.
An integrated modeling and analysis approach is
being used to perform the vulnerability assessment.
The criteria used in selecting models for this study are:
(a) models are generally accepted by the user commun-
ity; (b) model data and scale are specific enough to
describe conditions in the SJRB; and (c) model codes
are available in the public domain.
The modeling and analysis approach includes six
linked components: (1) hydroclimate, (2) water allo-
cation, (3) agricultural production and management,
(4) water quality, (5) fish ecology, and (6) socioeco-
nomic impacts.
Hydroclimate: Based on the HadCM2-projected
climate with a 1 percent increase in greenhouse gas
concentrations and dynamical downscaling of the cli-
mate projection through RCMs to basin-scale hydro-
logic models, it appears that the SJRB would expe-
rience significant increases in Sierra Nevada reservoir
inflow. It should be noted that compared to other
available atmospheric-ocean GCMs based on an evalu-
ation of the simulated seasonal hydroclimate cycle,
HadCM2 appears to be among the wetter simulations.
Water Allocation: Based on water allocation and
reservoir operations simulations for the joint water
resource systems (i.e., Central Valley Project and State
Water Project) of California's Central Valley (where
the SJB is a subregion), it seems that increases in
Sierra Nevada reservoir inflow will lead to correspond-
ing increases in stored water. However, these storage
increases are limited during relatively normal to wet
seasons under climate change, where storage capacity
limitations in SJRB Sierra Nevada reservoirs could
present challenges in flood control, particularly in the
southern SJRB. Increased reservoir inflow coupled
with limited storage capacity leads to increased San
Francisco Bay-Delta outflow, which translates into
increased "interruptible" exportable water to south-of-
Delta users in the SJRB. Interruptible denotes that the
water would not be expected to be available during dry
years under climate change, only during normal to wet
years. This water might be used at the time of avail-
ability or in a long-term water management framework
involving either groundwater banking or off-stream
surface reservoir storage.
Water Quality (Preliminary): Based on water
allocation and reservoir operations simulations, there
are reduced requirements for releasing water necessary
to support San Joaquin River (SJR) and Delta salinity
management objectives. However, the release reduc-
tions are minimal to negligible during the late summer
season, even with the wet nature of the HadCM2
climate change projection. Additional water quality
results will be generated during the summer of 2001.
San Joaquin River Water Quality Modeling:
The California Department of Water Resources' "Delta
Simulation Model II" (DSM2), developed for the sim-
ulation of the hydrodynamics and water quality of the
Delta, was modified to reduce the modeled area to just
the SJR. This required modifications to the geometry
The Office of Research and Development's National Center for Environmental Research
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2001 STAR Global Change Progress Review for 1999 and 2000 Grant Recipients
of the model and extensive calibration runs to ensure
that the reduced model responded in a similar fashion
as the full Delta model. Simulations of river water
quality driven by water allocation and agriculture pro-
duction model results are being completed during the
summer of 2001.
Agriculture Production Modeling: U.S. Bu-
reau of Reclamation staff and University of Califor-
nia, Davis, researchers have developed an SJRB agri-
culture production model that simulates agriculture
crop-choice decisions, rural economy, and subsurface
hydrology (SWADE). Simulations of agriculture pro-
duction driven by water allocation model results are
being completed during the summer of 2001.
Model Linkage and Modeling Feedbacks: The
U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Object User Inter-
face (OUI), a map-based interface for managing mo-
dels and model data, is being used to link impact
assessment models (components 2 through 6) and to
organize model data into a central data management
system. Model linkage within the OUI environment is
being completed in the summer of 2001. Feedback
modeling between the impact assessment models will
occur in the fall of 2001. (As an example feedback,
consider that the water allocation model determines
water available for agriculture and tributary river flows
into the SIR. The agriculture production model uses
water allocation results to determine crop choices,
which determines irrigation drainage return flows. The
river water quality model then uses tributary river flow
and drainage return flow results to determine water
quality in the SIR. This creates a feedback: water
quality conditions in the SIR trigger water allocation
constraints in the water allocation model, which must
be resimulated with the updated conditions from the
river water quality model until output from the river
water quality model converges with input to the water
allocation model.)
Model System Software Development for
Resource Trustees: San Joaquin Valley managers and
planners will be provided with our fully integrated
decision support system (DSS). The DSS will be used
to conduct further evaluations of the impacts of climate
variability and extreme events and develop approaches
for the mitigation of potential impacts. A user-friendly
compact disk toolbox and user manual will be devel-
oped as part of this study. The DSS is being designed
with minimal time required for file manipulation to
formulate impact response scenarios. The DSS should
allow the analyst to assess the utility of interventions
such as modified reservoir operation, real-time water
quality management, and adaptive management of
fishery resources in mitigating some of the potential
impacts of global climatic change and variability,
hence reducing the vulnerability of the existing system
to permanent damage. Training of the resulting DSS
system will be provided to planners, operations anal-
ysts, and other users.
The Office of Research and Development's National Center for Environmental Research
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2001 STAR Global Change Progress Review for 1999 and 2000 Grant Recipients
Assessment of the Consequences
of Climate Change on the South Florida Environment
Mark A. Harwell', Wendell P. Cropper, Jr.', Jerald S. Ault', John H. Gentile', David Letson ',
Diego Lirman ', Jiangang Luo ', John Wang', Jayantha Obeysekera 2, and Don DeAngelis3
'University of Miami, Miami, FL; 2South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, FL;
3Biological Resources Division, U.S. Geological Survey, Miami, FL
In this project, scientists from the University of
Miami's Center for Marine and Environmental Anal-
yses (CMEA), the South Florida Water Management
District (SFWMD), and the USGS-Biological Resourc-
es Division (BRD) are exploring the potential effects of
climate change-induced alterations in precipitation on
important ecological and societal endpoints of Bis-
cayne Bay, a coastal lagoon adjacent to the city of
Miami, Florida. It is important to understand the effects
of climate change on South Florida because of the high
sensitivity of the regional ecosystems and society to
variability in the hydrological and climate regime. The
focus of the proposed study is to examine regional
ecological and economic effects that might result from
climate change, using the EPA ecological risk assess-
ment framework. During the past year, an important
portion of the research was completed that focused on
developing a seamless, integrated modeling framework
to enable exploration of various simulation scenarios
aimed at translating regional changes in precipitation
into changes in the health of important ecological
endpoints within Biscayne Bay and the Everglades.
In the present framework, changes in the amount,
timing, and spatial distribution of precipitation can be
entered into the South Florida Water Management
Model that simulates the hydrology of the region. The
output from this model, in the form of freshwater runoff
values from surface, groundwater, and canal sources is
utilized by CMEA's Biscayne Bay Hydrodynamics
Model to simulate salinity fields as well as circulation
patterns for this coastal bay. Changes in salinity and
circulation patterns are then used by our Seascape and
fisheries models to predict the impacts that different
precipitation scenarios may have on the health of sea-
grass and hard-bottom communities, as well as asso-
ciated fisheries resources. These freshwater outputs also
will drive the ATLSS Model to assess effects on
selected species in the Everglades.
Our initial simulations using historical weather
patterns as well as two water management scenarios
indicated that significant increases in precipitation can
have significant effects on the growth and survivorship
of seagrass species. Similarly, increases in precipitation
can have negative impacts on populations of marine
sponges within Biscayne Bay. Although precipitation
changes were shown to impact benthic communities,
the simulations indicated that water management
scenarios that control the timing and spatial distribution
of freshwater releases into Biscayne Bay also can be a
major driver in this system. Based on the pivotal role
that water management plays in controlling the hydrol-
ogy of South Florida, and the near-future implementa-
tion of the Everglades Restoration Project that will
modify the freshwater dynamics of the region, it was
decided that all future simulations of the potential
impacts of climate change should include explicitly the
two primary water management options for the South
Florida Ecosystem Restoration process (the restora-
tion's base condition, 95 BASE, and the preferred water
management alternative, D13R). Accordingly, results
from this research will have important implications for
restoration and sustainability of the regional environ-
ment as well as potential effects on the growth, devel-
opment, and economy of South Florida.
A second component of the project was accom-
plished during the past year. In February 2001, a cli-
mate scenario development workshop was convened at
the University of Miami to: (1) establish the appropriate
climate change scenarios to be used in the simulations
for South Florida, and (2) characterize these scenarios
in sufficient detail to conduct the risk assessment. The
participants of this workshop included the co-Principal
Investigators as well as atmospheric and climatology
scientists from the Rosenstiel School of Marine and
Atmospheric Science, the NOAA Atlantic Oceano-
graphic and Meteorological Laboratory, and the
SFWMD. At this meeting, it was concluded that the
simulation scenarios will include historical climate,
based on the 1965-1995 record for South Florida,
global climate change scenarios of ± 25 percent precipi-
tation allocated across the year, the wet season only, or
the dry season only, and a shift in the phase of the
Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) from nega-
tive to positive phase.
During the following year, the stressors caused by
the proposed scenarios will be characterized in terms
that are relevant and necessary for the effects assess-
ments. For example, the altered precipitation regimes
will be characterized as model inputs of daily/monthly
precipitation levels, spatially distributed across the
South Florida landscape for a 30-year period. Ultimate-
ly, results from the simulations will be used to answer
two important questions relative to the potential im-
pacts of climate change. First, will climate change
significantly alter the volumes, timing, and distribution
of water throughout the South Florida system? Second,
will those changes have a significant impact to
ecological and societal systems?
The Office of Research and Development's National Center for Environmental Research
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2001 STAR Global Change Progress Review for 1999 and 2000 Grant Recipients
Integrated Assessment of Climate Change
Impact in the Mackinaw River Watershed. Illinois
Edwin E. Herricks', J.W. Eheart', Kieran P. Donaghy2, and Brian Orland3
'Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; ~'Department of Urban and Regional Planning;
3 Department of Landscape Architecture, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL
The primary objective of the proposed research is
to complete an integrated assessment of multiple sector
impacts produced by predicted changes in climate. The
impact assessment will focus on locations in the Mack-
inaw River watershed in Illinois. The specific objectives
are to: (1) develop sector specific responses to climate
change; (2) identify relationships between, and among,
sectors at each site and among all sites; (3) apply the im-
pact analysis paradigm to identify and quantify local im-
pacts produced by climate change; (4) identify mechan-
isms that produce an adaptive response to climate change
while developing sector/system resilience to climate
change impact; and (5) integrate project results with a
Web-based decision support interface.
The initial stages of this research included Mack-
inaw River watershed stakeholder identification and in-
teraction. Stakeholders were interviewed individually and
participated in focus groups. Written notes, and digital
records of interviews and focus groups were analyzed.
Analysis has informed the development of scientific and
technical activities in the research, and digital records
have been used to identify specific stakeholder interests.
The interviews also have supported refinement of sector
identification and are supporting the targeting of research
support activities to stakeholder needs. For example, the
initial stakeholder involvement has provided a foundation
for selection of the approach to Decision Support System
(DSS) development and the information for adaptation of
research activities as the research plan has progressed.
A specific research focus has been the development
of model support for the DSS. The SWAT model is being
adapted to assess climate change effects on the agricul-
ture sector of the human system as well as hydrologic and
water quality sectors of natural resource systems. SWAT
2000 has been applied to the Mackinaw basin at Con-
gerville and has produced the information that can be
used to generate profit and stream-flow subceedance-
frequency histograms. Also, information has been gener-
ated for nitrate exceedance-frequency histograms, and
modeling has begun of BOD-DO for the basin. Develop-
ment has begun of the same information for the larger
Mackinaw basin, the streamgauge for which is the
Mackinaw River at Green Valley. This information is an
important component of the DSS interface that connects
agriculture and municipal infrastructure sectors. Other
modeling efforts have applied HECRAS to small water-
sheds to predict flooding consequence and drainage im-
pairment associated with changing hydrologic regimes.
A stream temperature model has been developed to assist
in fish population modeling and climate change effect
analysis. An input-output econometric model has been
developed to provide multiple sector analysis of econom-
ic issues. BASINS also has been adapted for use in the
DSS. The result is that modeling support is provided for
the following sectors: agriculture, insurance/finances,
transportation, industry, agriculture, terrestrial ecosys-
tems, aquatic ecosystems, land use/lanscape, water quan-
tity, and water quality. Interviews and focus group anal-
ysis support the analysis of the quality of life and human
health issues in the watershed.
The DSS has been structured, and an initial test of
the DSS will be conducted with stakeholders hi the
summer of 2001. Structuring the DSS has involved the
analysis of both model output and the requirements of
stakeholders in the decisionmaking process. The DSS is
structured to operate through a Web-based interface,
using look-up tables developed from modeling activity,
real-time use of models, and retrieval of Web-based in-
formation resources. The prototype DSS has been struc-
tured to support inquiries identified from interviews and
focus groups, as well as climate change impact areas
identified from the literature. Following initial testing of
the prototype DSS, an iterative DSS expansion and im-
provement activity will use stakeholder input and con-
tinuing model development.
The proposed research will provide an example of
advanced information technology applications to climate
change issues in a watershed. The research will identify
local impact of climate change on a typical watershed in
the Midwest that provides a diverse natural resource,
economic, and social setting for analysis of impacts due
to climate change. The systematic accounting for sector
responses, starting at the local level, will provide an es-
sential complement to existing downscaling of GCC
models. Further, the proposed horizontal and vertical in-
tegration, from an impact-type focus, will provide
important sector-specific information essential to the
future successful management of climate change effects.
This research also features an innovative use of in-
formation technology, the development of a decision
support interface, which will provide a valuable adjunct
to ongoing community-based management programs in
the Mackinaw River watershed.
The results of this research will be of importance to
local, state, and federal water resources planners and
legislators in deciding how best to cope with uncertain
anticipated climate changes in the Midwest, and will
inform local stakeholders about issues of importance,
supporting local management programs for natural
resource and municipal services.
The Office of Research and Development's National Center for Environmental Research
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2001 STAR Global Change Progress Review for 1999 and 2000 Grant Recipients
An Integrated Assessment
of the Effects of Climate Change on Rocky
Mountain National Park and Its Gateway Community
N. Thompson Hobbs', Dennis Ojima ', John Loomis2, Stephan Wetter3, DavidM. Theobald', Alan P. Covich 4,
JillS. Baron '-s, Thomas J. Stohlgren ''5, and Michael B. Coughenour'
'Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory; ^Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics;
Department of Economics; "Department of Fishery and Wildlife Biology, Colorado State University,
Fort Collins, CO; sU.S.Geological Survey, Department of Interior, Fort Collins, CO
Gateway communities are concentrations of hu-
man population and commerce in close proximity to
conservation areas. This project focuses on under-
standing how climate influences human and natural
systems in Rocky Mountain National Park and its
gateway community, Estes Park, Colorado. The project
objectives are to: (1) assess the potential consequences
of changing land-use and climate for landscape struc-
ture, aquatic biota, terrestrial wildlife, and native plant
communities; (2) extend these biotic effects to predict
likely changes in visitation and the implications of
those changes for the local economy; and (3) based on
the understanding gained above, help stakeholders
identify and evaluate potential ways to respond to a
changing landscape and climatic context. Using his-
toric data on biotic responses to weather patterns, the
effects of future climate change on park biota, particu-
larly wild-life populations, were assessed. Changes
were projected in landscape composition.
Scenarios based on Canadian Climate Centre and
Hadley models suggest that a warming climate will
offer opportunities for enhancing natural systems and
simultaneously will create challenges for avoiding sys-
tem degradation. These opposing effects include the
following: (1) The native greenback cutthroat trout has
been extirpated from most of its historic range as a
result of competition with normative trout. The green-
back now occupies cold headwaters and high elevation
lakes that are marginally appropriate, unproductive
habitats. Warming of these habitats is expected to in-
crease the length of the growing season, increase pro-
ductivity, and enhance the probability of success of
reestablishment of native trout in the park. (2) Warm-
ing is likely to cause a large increase in the abundance
of elk as a result of diminishing effects of winter
weather on calf recruitment and survival. This increase
would exacerbate existing stresses on the system
caused by overabundance of elk. (3) Ptarmigan popu-
lations exist in naturally fragmented habitats through-
out the park. Analysis of historic data on population
demography in relation to weather revealed negative
correlations between warm winter temperatures and
population growth rates, probably as a result of asyn-
chrony between accelerated breeding dates and food
availability. The ptarmigan population in the park is in
decline—it appears that warming could accelerate this
downward trend. (4) Long-term effects of warming in-
clude shifts in landscape composition reflecting in-
creases in shrublands and forest and declines in tundra.
The reduction in tundra could drive enduring effects
on the park's biological diversity. These changes in the
natural systems in the park are linked to the perfor-
mance of the human economy in Estes Park by the
behavior of its visitors (see Figure 1).
To examine the linkage between natural system
and visitation, a mail-back survey was designed to
assess how climate change would affect visitor behav-
ior directly through changes in weather patterns, and
indirectly through climate-induced changes in park
biota. The survey displays iconic representations of
weather scenarios (i.e., number of days with sun,
snow, and rain, see Figure 2) and changes in biota (i.e.,
number of elk, area of tundra, number of ptarmigan,
etc.), and asks visitors how they would alter the fre-
quency and duration of their visits in response to these
scenarios, hi addition, the survey assesses visitor ex-
penditures across a range of categories, including lodg-
ing, automobile-related costs, camping fees, food and
drink, and park entrance fees.
The survey was modified based on comprehen-
sive reviews by the stakeholder advisory committee
and the staff of Rocky Mountain National Park. In
addition, focus groups were conducted with park users,
and the survey was pretested on visitors in the park
during early May. The survey will be delivered to 300
park visitors this summer.
The results of the survey will be used to parame-
terize an input-output model of the local economy
(IMPLAN). This model will be used to project impacts
of climate change on a variety of indicators of eco-
nomic performance, including local output, additional
jobs, and earned income.
The Office of Research and Development's National Center for Environmental Research
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2001 STAR Global Change Progress Review for 1999 and 2000 Grant Recipients
Natural System in
Rocky Mountain
National Park
Figure 1. Changes in climate and land use may affect biotic states and processes within Rocky Mountain National Park. These changes are likely
to affect visitation, which will drive change in the economy of the gateway community of Estes Park.
Typical Day
Weather Pattern 1
Weather Pattern 2
Temperature
Number of days with
summer high
temperature above
80°F
3 days
15 days
20 days
Figure 2. Example iconic representations of weather scenarios.
The Office of Research and Development's National Center for Environmental Research
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2001 STAR Global Change Progress Review for 1999 and 2000 Grant Recipients
Infrastructure Systems, Services
and Climate Change: Integrated Impacts
and Response Strategies for the Boston Metropolitan Area
Paul H. Kirshen ' and Matthias Ruth 2
'Tufts University, Medford, MA; ' University of Maryland, College Park, MD
The services provided by infrastructure systems
include flood control; water supply; drainage; waste
water management; solid and hazardous waste manage-
ment; energy; transportation; providing constructed fa-
cilities for residential, commercial, and industrial activ-
ities; communication; and recreation. The socioeconom-
ic and environmental services they provide are essential;
without them, the U.S. economy could not function and
many human and environmental systems would col-
lapse. This is particularly the case in metropolitan areas.
The objectives of the CLIMB (Climate's Long-
Term Impacts on Metro Boston) project include: (1) doc-
umentation and analysis of the state of present infra-
structure systems as well as the socioeconomic and envi-
ronmental services provided by them in the Boston
Metropolitan Area (BMA, includes the major cities of
Boston and Cambridge and 99 other municipalities
within approximately 20 miles of Boston—land use
varies from urban to farms and open space) using var-
ious measures to indicate the contribution of these
infrastructure systems and services (ISS) to the quality
of life in the region; (2) determination of the integrated
direct and indirect impacts of climate change, socio-
economic, and technology scenarios on the evolution of
ISS and the regional quality of life over time; (3) identi-
fication and importance of policies and short- and long-
term research needs for the provision of ISS that will
meet stakeholder needs over time, given the uncertain-
ties of climate and other changes; and (4) collaboration
with the Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC),
our local partner, to ensure that stakeholders are in-
volved, their concerns are addressed, and the project
results are effectively communicated to them and the
public at large and to begin engaging stakeholders in the
process of preparing for potential climate change.
The approach includes: (1) work with stakeholders
and experts to understand the multiple driving forces
behind ISS in the BMA as well as the vertical and hori-
zontal interrelationships of ISS demands and impacts;
(2) build a dynamic analytical modeling tool that incor-
porates this understanding to organize data, model socio-
economic and environmental dynamics and interrelated
impacts of ISS, and aid in communication of project re-
sults. This requires quantitative analysis of the impacts
of climate change upon present infrastructure; (3) work
with stakeholders to execute the model with various cli-
mate change, socioeconomic, and technology scenarios
to achieve the research objectives; and (4) communicate
with the help of the MAPC to stakeholders and the gen-
eral public throughout the project.
The research will improve the risk management of
the impacts on infrastructure from future uncertain cli-
mate, socioeconomic, environmental, and technology
changes by showing possible impacts and driving forces
behind those impacts and their sensitivities, working
with stakeholders to develop short- and long-term resil-
ient policies and programs to mitigate and adapt to im-
pacts, and empowering stakeholders and the general
public with the results.
Over the past year, major progress has been made
in the CLIMB project's modeling of ISS. In addition,
there was significant outreach to stakeholders that ser-
ved the dual purposes of creating awareness of urban
climate change issues among infrastructure managers in
the Boston metro area as well as further informing the
CLIMB project on key issues. The modeling advances
included the following.
Modules are being built for the following sectors:
Energy, Communication, Transportation, Water Supply,
Water Quality, Flooding, and Public Health. These sec-
tors have been selected for integrated analysis because
they are sensitive to one or more climate features that
may change under global warming, they are important to
metro Boston in terms of quality of life and/or economic
activity, and there are project resources and data avail-
able for the analysis.
The Energy Module of the CLIMB model has been
developed on the basis of econometric analyses of rela-
tionships of fuel use by fuel type in each of the end use
sectors (i.e., households, commercial, industrial and ser-
vices) for each of the region's subareas. Fuel demand is
compared to regional supply; relationships are being
established to quantify supply as a function of regional
capacity, long-distance transmission, and supply disrup-
tion by downed power lines, iced roads, and brown-outs
when ambient air quality standards are surpassed. Costs
of energy supply shortages, and disruptions to individual
end use sectors and the regional economy are calculated
and will be compared to estimates of mitigation and
adaptation costs. The Communication Module has simi-
lar procedures to estimate disruption of communication
lines due to iced lines, failing towers, and so on.
A comprehensive modeling framework for anal-
yzing the impact of extreme weather events on surface
transportation systems in the Boston Metro region was
developed for the Transportation Module, in cooperation
with the Central Transportation Planning Staff (Boston's
MPO). The framework overlays spatial flood projections
with networks of transportation (road and rail) infra-
structure to identify those network links that will be
The Office of Research and Development's National Center for Environmental Research
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2001 STAR Global Change Progress Review for 1999 and 2000 Grant Recipients
impassable during extreme storm events as well as origin
and destination areas. A model of urban transportation
demand is then run to simulate climate impacts, includ-
ing time lost to delays on public and private transporta-
tion, days of work lost, retail sales lost, and production
lost due to disruptions in freight.
The Water Supply Module compares the demands
from the household, commercial, industrial, and service
sectors to the available yield of the sources in each sub-
area. Demands are based on population, socioeconomic,
and technological changes. Subarea shortages are met if
possible from the region source of the Massachusetts
Water Resources Authority. Impacts of shortages are
measured by a series of indicators.
Wastewater flows are used in the Water Quality
Module. Because less is known about the impacts of
climate change on the water quality of the CLIMB re-
gion, a detailed water quality model of a local river has
been built and is being run under a variety of climate
change scenarios to develop reduced form relationships
between climate change, impacts, and adaptation costs.
That module will be scaled up to inform water quality
changes on a larger regional scale.
The Flooding Module determines the flood losses
and disruption from riverine and coastal flooding. Also,
it includes land losses due to sea level rise. Riverine
losses are based on the 100- and 500-year FEMA flood
plain maps. Coastal flooding and sea level rise losses
were originally to be based upon actual expected flood
and sea level rise elevations. This has been hampered by
the lack of accurate elevation maps with contours less
than 10 meters. Alternatives are being developed.
The Public Health Module estimates mortality and
morbidity from asthma and heat stress. Regressions are
now being built between health outcomes, climate, and
socioeconomic variables.
Three internally consistent climate, policy, demo-
graphic, economic, and technological scenarios are be-
ing built to examine integrated impacts. They will ini-
tially use the Canadian Climate Center scenario as a
guide for climate changes. The scenarios are: "Ride It
Out," "Targeted Growth," and "Build Way Out." They
have been selected based on stakeholder response to cli-
mate change. In addition, a climate data generator has
been constructed that allows generation of time series of
weather events corresponding to different climates.
10
The Office of Research and Development's National Center for Environmental Research
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2001 STAR Global Change Progress Review for 1999 and 2000 Grant Recipients
Impact of Climate
on the Lower Yakima River Basin
Lance Vail', Mike Scott', Kristi Branch ', Duane Nietzel', L. Ruby Leung', Mike Scott', Mark Wigmosta',
Claudia Stockle2, and Keith Saxton 2
' Pacific Northwest Division, Battelle Memorial Institute, Richland, WA; Washington State University, Pullman, WA
The objective of this project is to develop and
demonstrate a framework to assess the localized impact
of climate change and climate variability on a diverse
set of interdependent interests, including agriculture,
water supply, water quality, air quality, fisheries, and
economics. The goal of this project is not to develop any
specific new process models, but to integrate existing
models to ensure that the linkages between the various
models are appropriately represented. Because any such
assessment is subject to considerable uncertainty, this
framework will explicitly consider the generation and
propagation of assessment uncertainty. The framework
also will evaluate the tradeoffs associated with adapta-
tion alternatives such as farm management practices and
reservoir operations. The framework will be demon-
strated on the Lower Yakima River Basin, WA. The
assessment results and adaptation tradeoffs will be made
available to the stakeholders via the Internet. The pro-
posed framework will: (1) focus on the horizontal inte-
gration, (2) express the impact of various adaptations as
tradeoffs between endpoints, and (3) quantify uncer-.
tainty.
A diverse team of experts has begun developing an
integrated assessment framework. The framework will
assess the efficacy and tradeoffs associated with adapta-
tion alternatives such as cropping schemes and reservoir
operations. The framework is being demonstrated on the
Lower Yakima River Basin in central Washington State.
The assessment results and tradeoffs will be made avail-
able to the stakeholders via public meetings and the
Internet.
The objectives of the project will be achieved in a
phased approach over 3 years. During the first year, a
vertical assessment of climate, surface water supply,
crop production, and economics were preformed. This
activity tested the highest priority modules, while simul-
taneously helping to define the required modifications
in the complete suite of modules required for the more
highly interdependent (horizontal) assessment. The ini-
tial software requirement specifications for the frame-
work were completed in the first year.
A public workshop attended by nearly 50 individ-
uals was held in Yakima, WA. Individuals from federal
and state agencies as well as nongovernmental organiza-
tions were in attendance, in addition to a number of in-
terested citizens. The workshop was cosponsored by this
project and a NOAA-funded project being conducted by
the University of Washington. Since this workshop in
November 2000, interest in climate has increased
dramatically in the Yakima Basin due to a serious
drought that is occurring throughout the Pacific North-
west. Irrigation districts with junior water rights are
currently expected to receive only 30 percent of their
water allocation. The Governor of Washington State has
declared a drought emergency. Combined with the
drought, the region is experiencing the largest return of
salmon in several decades and a serious power emer-
gency. These unique conditions provide an opportunity
to observe some efforts at adaptation to climate variabil-
ity. Instream flow targets have been relaxed, water
rights have been bought and traded,and hydropower-
generating reservoirs have been heavily drafted to adapt
to the drought conditions. The efficacy of these adapta-
tions will be seen throughout the summer and into the
next water year.
The need for an improved assessment framework
has been highlighted by unintended/unpredicted conse-
quences of certain adaptation strategies. For instance,
buying water rights from farmers to maintain instream
flows, while economically fair to farmowners them-
selves, provides no comparable compensation to resi-
dent and migrant farmerworkers or farming supplies and
equipment providers dependent on the displaced farm-
ing activities.
A project Web site was developed and made avail-
able to the public. The Web site is being regularly main-
tained and updated. It will eventually provide access to
decision, model, and data toolboxes.
The preliminary vertical assessment tested pri-
marily the hydrologic, crop, and economic modules.
DHSVM was the hydrology model used to estimate the
streamflow and water availability under a variety of
base and +2°C climate conditions. The model was cali-
brated using gridded reconstructed climate data and re-
constructed natural flow estimates. CROPSYS was em-
ployed to estimate the yields of a variety of crops (e.g.,
alfalfa, sweet corn, potatoes, and winter wheat) under
baseline conditions, +2°C conditions, and +2°C/560
ppm CO2 conditions. IMPLAN was used to estimate the
impacts to regional employment for 100 percent, 80 per-
cent, 60 percent, 35 percent, and 20 percent water avail-
ability.
The critical requirements for the framework have
been identified in terms of accountability, accessibility,
and adaptability. To ensure accountability, the frame-
work must provide tools to help planners develop
accountable decisionmaking processes and to allow
users to understand how decisions were made. For in-
stance, the framework should: (1) clearly articulate the
tradeoffs between multiple objectives; (2) communicate
The Office of Research and Development's National Center for Environmental Research
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2001 STAR Global Change Progress Review for 1999 and 2000 Grant Recipients
the likelihood of making decision errors that result from
model and data uncertainty; (3) create a bias towards
robust alternatives; (4) facilitate the sharing of process
knowledge; and (5) show the models, data, and assump-
tions used to reach decisions.
To ensure accessibility, the framework should pro-
vide reliable and rapid access to models, data, and the
rationale that underpins decisions; provide the ability to
"drill-down" through decisions, data, and models; en-
sure maximum access by being Web-accessible; and
provide safe collaboration for the decisionmaking pro-
cess.
As with all technology-based approaches, the
framework must adapt continuously and rapidly to
new data, models, and needs or the system will soon be
obsolete. The framework also must assist planners to be
adaptive in their management approach, giving them
greater flexibility and responsiveness. For instance, the
framework should incorporate a modular modeling de-
sign that allows new data and models to be integrated
into analyses; support real-time assimilation of data by
providing tools to automate the calibration process; pro-
vide tools required to support adaptive management;
and streamline environmental planning to allow it to
occur earlier in the planning process.
The second year's activities will include finishing
development and testing the framework and completing
the horizontal integrated assessment. The third year will
focus on the assessment of adaptation options and eval-
uation of the stakeholder communication process. Pro-
ject staff will work closely with the Tri-County Water
Resource Agency to ensure that assessments are rele-
vant to stakeholders and communicated in a manner that
is most likely to be understood.
12
The Office of Research and Development's National Center for Environmental Research
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2000 Assessing the Consequences of Human
Activities and a Changing Climate Grantees
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2001 STAR Global Change Progress Review for 1999 and 2000 Grant Recipients
Close-Coupling of Ecosystem and Economic Models:
Adaptation of Central U.S. Agriculture to Climate Change
John M. Antle', Susan M. Capalbo ', Sidn Mooney', William Hunt *, Keith Paustian 2, and Edward T. Elliot3
'Montana State University, Bozeman, MT; 2Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; ^University of Nebraska,
Lincoln, NE
The overall objective of this project is to signifi-
cantly advance the state-of-the-art in modeling impacts
of climate change in agroecosystems by moving be-
yond the loose coupling of unrelated and independent
disciplinary models. Specific objectives are to: develop
methods to couple existing ecological and economic
models that can be used to assess the impacts of cli-
mate change in agricultural ecosystems; simulate the
ecological and economic impacts of climate change on
agriculture in the central United States, using data at
various scales (field/farm, county and Major Land
Resource Area [MLRA]) and using a range of climate
change scenarios and sensitivity analyses; and investi-
gate the dynamic and spatial properties of agricultural
ecosystems to assess how estimates of the impacts of
climate change are affected by the choice of spatial
scale, temporal scale, and degree of model coupling.
In this study, a conceptual framework for closer
model coupling will be developed, and the close cou-
pling of an ecological model with an economic decision
model will be implemented. The study will investigate
how the ability to simulate behavior in response to
climate change is affected by the temporal and spatial
scales of analysis, the degree of coupling of the models,
and the dynamic properties of the models. The research
will be conducted for one of the most important agro-
ecosystems, the crop-based system of the central United
States.
To meet the first objective, processes in ecological
models will be linked with land use and input use deci-
sions in economic models, so that the type and strength
of feedback between ecological and economic processes
is suitably represented.
To meet the second objective, to simulate the eco-
logical and economic models, climate scenarios will be
derived from historical climate data and from the results
of global circulation models (GCMs) that have been
appropriately downscaled. Climate data sets will be de-
veloped to conduct analysis of sensitivity to changes in
mean temperature and precipitation changes, as well as
changes in variability.
The third objective is to investigate the dynamic
and spatial properties of agricultural ecosystems and to
assess how they are affected by spatial scale, temporal
scale, and degree of model coupling. These properties
will be compared at the farm/field, county, and MLRA
scales in the central United States using primary data
collected by the Principal Investigators, and secondary
data collected by various state and federal agencies.
The possibility of successfully coupling ecosystem
and economic models will depend on the level of data
aggregation and spatial scale. Such coupling is expected
to be most successful on a site-specific basis, and less
successful as data are spatially and temporally aggre-
gated. Coupling ecosystem and economic models will,
at least in some important cases, lead to significantly
different estimates of climate change impacts on agri-
culture than is obtained from uncoupled models. In
addition, significant effects of spatial and temporal
aggregation on impacts of climate change are expected.
The Office of Research and Development's National Center for Environmental Research
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2001 STAR Global Change Progress Review for 1999 and 2000 Grant Recipients
Implications of Climate Change for Regional
Air Pollution. Health Effects and Energy Consumption Behavior
J.H. Ellis', B.F. Hobbs1, J.F. Patz', J. Samet', M. Schwab ', and F. Joutz2
1 The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; •'George Washington University, Washington, DC
The objective of this project is to develop a scien-
tifically credible modeling facility that will help policy-
makers and analysts understand the effects of human
activities on climate change and variability as well as
the possible human responses and adaptations to climate
change and variability.
This research approach involves four major
modeling elements: (1) climate change and variability,
(2) electrical energy demand and production, (3) re-
gional air pollution, and (4) human health effects asso-
ciated with air pollution exposure. Using the Maryland/
Northern Virginia/DC/Delaware area as a case study,
the air pollutants that will be focused on are tropospher-
ic (ground level) ozone and particulate matter (PM10 and
PM2 5) because of their important health effects (inclu-
ding increased morbidity and premature death).
The modeling system used for these pollutants will
be Models-3, which is installed and functioning in-
house. (MM5 also is installed and functioning in-house).
Emissions inventory management and projections are
accommodated within Models-3. Climate change and
variability will be modeled using downscaled exogen-
ously derived scenarios for a suite of time horizons.
Average electric demand modeling for residential
and commercial sectors will be accomplished using a
suite of the latest generation Electric Power Research
Institute (EPRI)-developed tools (respectively, REEPS
and COMMEND). Changes in demand distributions
over time will be accomplished using a standard load
shape and short-term load forecasting model (HELM-
PC, another EPRI product). Widely used electric power
sector simulation approaches will translate demand dis-
tributions into fuel use and emissions by electricity gen-
erators. Transportation-related climate effects will be
modeled through altered VOC and NOX emissions as a
result of decreases in vehicle miles traveled and changes
in electricity demand caused by the declaration of ozone
pollution alerts. Finally, human health effects modeling
will be performed with PM and ozone concentra-
tion-response functions described in EPA's Section 812
study, in conjunction with other existing (locally de-
rived) epidemiologic models and newly developed
methods relating urban air pollutant exposure and
selected morbidity and mortality endpoints.
The principal result of our work will be a compre-
hensive yet computationally tractable tool for analyzing
interrelationships between selected human activities
(including transportation), energy production and con-
sumption behavior, ambient air pollution, and associ-
ated health effects.
16
The Office of Research and Development's National Center for Environmental Research
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2001 STAR Global Change Progress Review for 1999 and 2000 Grant Recipients
Modeling Heat and Air Quality Impacts
of Changing Urban Land Uses and Climate
Patrick L. Kinney', William D. Soleki2, Roni Avissar 3, S. T. Rao 4, and Christopher Small'
'School of Public Health, Columbia University, Bloomington,NY;2Montclair State University, Upper Montclair, NJ;
3Rutgers University, Camden, NJ; 4State University of New York, Albany, NY
Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone
and fine particles represent two significant current
public health stressors in the New York metropolitan
area. Both of these stressors maybe impacted by future
changes in the global climate as well as continued
expansion of human-dominated land uses in the region.
To date, there has been little effort to link climate
change and land use/land cover (LU/LC) models in
assessments of potential future impacts of heat stress
and air quality.
The proposed study will link human dimension
and natural sciences models describing the behaviors
of these systems to yield improved tools for assessing
the future public health impacts of climate change in
the context of existing environmental stressors. The
model will be applied to the 31-county New York
metropolitan east coast (MEC) region. The following
questions will be addressed: (1) What changes in the
frequency and severity of extreme heat events are
likely to occur over the next 50 years due to a range of
possible scenarios of LU/LC and climate change in the
MEC region? (2) How might the frequency and se-
verity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and
airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 |jm in di-
ameter (PM2 5) change over the next 50 years due to a
range of possible scenarios of LU/LC and climate
change in the MEC region? (3) What is the range of
possible human health impacts of these changes in the
MEC region? (4) How might projected future human
exposures and responses to heat stress and air quality
differ as a function of socioeconomic status and race/
ethnicity across the MEC region?
An integrated model will be developed linking
models for LU/LC, global climate change, regional
climate change, atmospheric chemistry and pollution
transport, and the impacts of heat stress and air quality
on public health. Four scenarios of LU/LC change and
three independent GCMs will be analyzed. Impacts
will be examined during the decades of the 2020s and
2050s.
The research will provide improved tools for
integrated assessments of future public health risks due
to heat and air quality changes that are driven by cli-
mate change/variability and changes in LU/LC. In ad-
dition, the research will lead to a better understanding
of the driving forces behind long-term environmental
changes, and the role played by socioeconomic and
demographic factors in the resulting human impacts.
The Office of Research and Development's National Center for Environmental Research
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2001 STAR Global Change Progress Review for 1999 and 2000 Grant Recipients
Climatic and Human Impacts on Fire Regimes
in Forests and Grasslands of the U.S. Southwest
Barbara J. Morehouse', Thomas W. Swetnam 2, Jonathan T. Overpeck', Stephen R. Yool}, Barron J. Orr 4, and
Gary L. Christopherson 5
1 Institute for the Study of Planet Earth (ISPE), Tuscan, AZ, laboratory of Tree-Ring Research; Department of
Geography; 4AZ Remote Sensing Center and Cooperative Extension, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ;
J Center for Applied Spatial Analysis (CASA), University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
This project seeks to improve ecosystem health
and sustainability in the Southwestern United States
through developing a better understanding of the ef-
fects of interactions among climate, human activities,
and wildland fire. The project provides a unique means
for assessing how human factors combine with natural
processes to affect fire regimes—and thus ecoystem
sustainability and biodiversity—under different cli-
matic and biotic contexts.
Where existing fire models focus almost entirely
on biophysical factors, fire behavior, and weather con-
ditions, this project involves development of a GIS-
based model that integrates data from dynamical and
empirical natural and social science models. Also, it
includes institutional and discourse analyses of non-
quantitative factors influencing decisionmaking.
The integrated model will be applied, together
with knowledge gained from the institutional and dis-
course analyses, in a comparative case study of the
Chiricahua, Huachuca, and Santa Catalina Mountains
in Arizona, as well as the Jemez Mountains in New
Mexico. A crucial component of the project will be
iterative interactions with fire and ecosystem man-
agers, including model testing. The final products of
the project will be introduced at a symposium for
managers and researchers, scheduled to coincide with
fire management planning and budgeting for the 2003
fire season.
The integrated model is explicitly designed to be
used for making wildland fire management decisions
for individual seasons, in the context of risk over dec-
ades of future climate, land use, and social change. The
research products will be made available through an
innovative new map server on a University of Arizona
Web Site. Informational materials also will be pro-
duced for distribution to the general public and/or dis-
played in visitor centers.
In addition, the integrated model will enhance the
understanding of the complex human and natural
forces contributing to fire regimes in the Southwest,
allowing for better informed decisionmaking among
fire and resource managers. The project provides a
means for reducing risk to ecosystem sustainability,
biodiversity, as well as to human settlements and activ-
ities, and provides an indispensable foundation for
future development of improved process-based mo-
dels.
The project addresses the EPA-designated high-
priority area of "Ecosystems." By integrating human
land-use factors in the context of climatic variability
and biotic conditions, the project specifically addresses
the question, "How might climatic changes, in com-
bination with changing land-use patterns, affect forest
health, biodiversity, and ecosystem function?" In ex-
ploring the interactions between human activities,
weather events, and fuel load conditions, the project
also provides the spatial and temporal specificity
needed to address the question, "How might land-use
choices increase or decrease ecosystem vulnerability to
extreme weather events?"
18
The Office of Research and Development's National Center for Environmental Research
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2001 STAR Global Change Progress Review for 1999 and 2000 Grant Recipients
Index of Authors
Antle,J.M., 15 Hobbs, N.T., 7
Dracup, J., 3 Kinney, P.L., 17
Ellis, J.H., 16 Kirshen, P.H., 9
Harwell, M.A., 5 Morehouse, B.J., 18
Herricks, E.E., 6 Vail, L., 11
The Office of Research and Development's National Center for Environmental Research 19
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Region 5, Library (PL-12J)
77 West Jackson Boulevard, 12th Flow
Chicago, It 60604*3590
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