fUMF!
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
HEALTH EFFECTS OF INCREASING SULFUR OXIDES EMISSIONS
J. F. Finklea, G. G. Akland, M. C. Nelson
R. I. Larsen, D. B. Turner, W. E. Wilson
National Environmental Research Center
Office of Research and Development
Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
March 6, 1975
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
INTRODUCTION
The Clean Air Act amendments of 1970 recognized the need to protect
the public health from any adverse health effects attributable to pollu-
tants emitted from motor vehicles or from stationary sources including
steam-electric power plants. The Act requires that health-related air
quality standards be set to protect fully both healthy and especially
susceptible segments of the population. Health-related air quality
standards for sulfur oxides and particulates, two of the most important
pollutants emitted by steam electric power plants, are scheduled to be
met before the end of this decade. Meeting emission and air quality
standards will prove a difficult challenge for an electric utility in-
dustry already facing other major obstacles in its efforts to meet the
growing power demands of our nation.- The most difficult standards to
attain relate to sulfur oxides.
Meeting standards will require substantial reductions in sulfur
oxide emissions. The effect of not meeting standards and allowing sulfur
oxides emissions to grow can be better understood after one reviews the
best available answers to the following eight questions:
* Why control sulfur oxides?
* How are sulfur oxides emissions changing?
* What are the relationships linking sulfur dioxide to ambient
levels of acid-sulfate aerosols?
* What adverse health effects are attributable to elevated ambient
levels of sulfur oxides?
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
0 How will growth in emissions from steam electric power plants
alter human exposures to acid-sulfate aerosols?
0 What is the magnitude of the public health problem likely to
follow a growth in emissions?
0 How much must sulfur oxides be controlled?
0 What important caveats must be kept in mind?
The answers to these questions are better today than six months
ago. However, the residual uncertainties again clearly demonstrate that
our scientific information base must be rapidly augmented if we are to
assure the necessary base for sound policy decisions on the sulfur
oxides problem and other problems involving energy and our environment.
To do othervn'se is to invite a series of national economic, environmental
and public health tragedies.
WHY CONTROL SULFUR OXIDES?
For at least another decade industrial nations will combust increasing
quantities of fossil fuels that contain organic and inorganic sulfur
compounds. Unless specifically controlled, the sulfur compounds in
fossil fuels utilized by steam electric power plants will be emitted
into the air as sulfur dioxide and, to a lesser extent as sulfur trioxide.
These sulfur oxides are transformed in power plant plumes and later in
-------
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
the atmosphere into acid-sulfate aerosols (strong acids and sulfate
salts). Acid-sulfate aerosols are fine participates which have a long
atmospheric residence and which are capable of penetrating deeply into
the human respiratory tract where they may become entrapped. Acid-
sulfate aerosols can adversely affect human health, vegetation, fish,
materials, and visibility.
HOW ARE SULFUR OXIDES EMISSIONS CHANGING?
Two important concurrent changes in sulfur oxides emissions have
taken place in recent years:
0 Urban emissions from area sources, industrial sources and
power plants have decreased. .
0 Suburban and rural emissions from steam electric power plants
have increased.
Urban emissions of sulfur oxides from home heating and industrial
sources began to decrease just after World War II and air pollution
control efforts during the late 1960's only reinforced a trend that was
already well established. Concern about urban air pollution did however
cause a number of utilities to seek low sulfur fuels which have since
become scarce and increasingly expensive. Precise estimates are not
available but it is likely that sulfur oxide emissions in our major
cities were decreased by about 50% between 1960 and 1970. Further
reductions are envisioned under the state implementation plans required
by the Clean Air Act amendments.
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
M*.
On the other hand, suburban and rural emissions of sulfur oxides
rapidly increased between 1960 and 1970. This is in large part attrib-
utable to a continued growth in sulfur oxides emissions from steam electric
power plants which can be appreciated by study of the regional and national
trends shown in Table 1. Were it not for steam-electric power plants,
nationwide emissions of sulfur oxides between 1950 and 1969 would have
decreased by 15% instead of increasing by 36%. If emission standards
and existing air quality standards are met, sulfur dioxide emissions from
steam electric power plants must be substantially reduced. The emission
picture will be further complicated by the need to import significant
quantities of high sulfur petroleum and utilize more high sulfur domestic
coal. Continuation of recent growth rates in the generation of electricity '
by fossil-fuel steam electric power plants could greatly increase emissions
if permanent emissions controls are not installed on new plants or plants
converting from low sulfur fuels to high sulfur fuel. On the other hand,
conservation measures and increasing utility rates can slow growth in
demand and thus lessen the adverse effects of an unrestrained growth in
emissions of sulfur oxides.
WHAT ARE THE RELATIONSHIPS LINKING
SULFUR DIOXIDE TO AMBIENT LEVELS OF
ACID-SULFATE AEROSOLS?
Sulfur dioxide is transformed in the atmosphere to sulfur trioxide
and sulfuric acid by a number of different complex mechanisms whose
effective transformation rates vary from 1 to 20% per hour. The predominant
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
mechanism can be expected to vary from place to'place and over time
(Appendix A). Sulfuric acid aerosols and the salts that form with ammonia
or metallic cations may be transported for long distances. Urban acid-
sulfate aerosols contain at least three components: first, a component
intruding from rural sources and distant urban plumes; second, a compo-
nent arising from sulfur oxide emissions in the urban area; and third,
a component of natural origin. Acid-sulfate aerosols are removed by
rairiout and washout. Sulfur trioxide in smaller amounts is also emitted
directly from combustion sources and is rapidly transformed into sulfuric
acid aerosol, thus associating worrisome levels of sulfuric acid with
power plant plumes.
Power plants in the eastern half of the United States are spatially
arranged (Figure 1} so that moving air parcels replenish their sulfur
loading more rapidly than acid sulfate aerosols can be removed by natural
processes. The increased acid-sulfate aerosol loading is associated with
worrisome increases in atmospheric turbidity; rainfall acidity and ambient
air levels of suspended particulate sulfates in urban and rural areas.
Water soluble suspended particulate sulfates collected on a high volume
air sampler are a useful but imperfect proxy for acid-sulfate aerosols.
Increased acid-sulfate aerosol loadings mean that ambient air entering
downwind metropolitan regions may contain bothersome levels of pollutants
before emissions from the local air quality control region contribute a
further increment.
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
Where urban emissions of sulfur dioxide predominate and where
arriving air parcels-are not already polluted, there is a relatively
good (.5 - .7) correlation between 24 hour ambient levels of sulfur
dioxide and ambient levels of suspended sulfates. It has also been
observed that suburban levels^of suspended sulfates are fairly well
correlated with central city levels of sulfur dioxide but less well
correlated with suburban sulfur dioxide suggesting that locally emitted
sulfur dioxide is transformed into aerosols and transported to other
parts of large urban complexes. Measurements around industrial facili-
ties during full operation and during shutdowns demonstrate a clear re-
lationship between local ambient levels of sulfur dioxide and suspended
sulfates. There is not always a good correlation between ambient levels
of sulfur dioxide and suspended sulfates. Poor correlations are expected
when photochemical smog is present, and when local industrial emissions
introduce catalytic metals or reactive hydrocarbons. Poor correlations
are also observed when local emissions of sulfur oxides are controlled
but more distant emissions and intruding acid-sulfate aerosols are allowed
to increase.
Thus, it is important to consider regional emissions patterns when
projecting changes in acid-sulfate aerosol levels. Though our data base
is far from satisfactory, there is evidence that acid-sulfate aerosols,
as measured by their suspended sulfate proxy, did decrease substantially
in urban areas where sulfur dioxides were stringently controlled during
the late 1960's. However, regional emissions increased because of locating
-------
" 7 " D0 NOT QUOTE OR CITE
steam electric power plants in rural areas and because urban areas varied
in the timing and the stringency of emissions controls (Appendix A). The
rate of regional increase over the short period covered by the suspended
sulfate data base, which begins in the early 1960's and ends in 1970, was
probably initially more than balanced by local control measures, but this
decrease would not be expected to persist very long. Using the available
information from thirty-three urban National Air Sampling Network stations,
a proportional model linking regional sulfur dioxide emissions to suspended
sulfates was tested (Table 2 of Appendix A). In this test a three year
moving mean of central city sulfur dioxide levels was used as a proxy for
sulfur dioxide emissions for the city and for any suburban station. This
was necessary because historical emissions inventories are difficult to
obtain for individual cities and for sources other than power plants.
State and regional power plant emissions of sulfur oxides were calculated
from emissions inventories compiled for the Federal Power Commission. The
percentage changes over time for these two components, one for the city
and the second for a contiguous region, were then summed and the resulting
predictive value compared with the observed changes in the three year
moving mean suspended sulfate level at the same air monitoring station.
Three year moving means were used instead of the values for a single year
because the sampling frequency of the National Air Sampling Network,
twenty-six days per year, allows meteorological conditions, especially
rainfall to unduly influence values for a single year. The proportional
emissions model will of course have to be validated and perhaps altered
-------
DRAFT '
8 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
by research now underway and projected for the future. Nevertheless,
important observations are possible: First, the rough proportional
emissions model fits quite well in the largest eastern cities. As
expected the model does not fit very well in areas where emissions or
other model assumptions are rendered questionable by regional topography,
high emissions of catalytically active metals or photochemical smog.
Furthermore, the model works better for larger cities than for smaller
cities. Second, suspended sulfate levels decreased in the large eastern
cities in a more or less predictable fashion during the latter part of the
last decade. Decreases of 25-33% were common. Third, suspended sulfates
are apparently increasing in the few southeastern stations where data is
available. This also was expected under the proportional model.
Thus, regional levels of suspended sulfates may well increase sub-
stantially during the present decade. Based on our present understanding,
one can assume an increase in acid-sulfate aerosols which is proportional
to regional increases in sulfur dioxide emissions.
WHAT ADVERSE HEALTH EFFECTS ARE
ATTRIBUTABLE TO ELEVATED AMBIENT
LEVELS OF SULFUR OXIDES?
Short term exposures to elevated levels of sulfur oxides, especially
acid-sulfate aerosols, are thought to aggravate asthma and preexisting
heart and lung disorders. Elevated short term exposures to acid-sulfate
aerosols are also likely to have been largely responsible for perceptible
increases in daily mortality observed during air pollution episodes.
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
Repeated short term peak exposures or more even elevations in annual
average exposures to acid-sulfate aerosols lasting several years are
likely to result in excess acute lower respiratory disease in children,
excess risk for chronic respiratory disease symptoms in adults and
decreased ventilatory function in children.
These effects were observed in community studies (Appendix C refer-
ence) where levels of sulfur dioxide, acid-sulfate aerosols and suspended
particulate matter were usually but not always simultaneously elevated.
Unfortunately, it is only now becoming possible to develop laboratory
animal models and clinical protocols that allow one to mount complemen-
tary studies on the effects of finely divided acid-sulfate aerosols on
susceptible population segments. Early toxicology studies exposing
healthy young adult animals for short periods to sulfur dioxide alone
or tc sulfur dioxide and particulate have shown equivocal results. Con-
struction of dose response functions for acid sulfate aerosols utilized
in the present report is hampered by four problems: first, suspended
sulfates must be employed as a proxy for acid-sulfate aerosols; second,
for some studies one had to recapitulate sulfate exposure from prediction
equations that utilized existing air monitoring data for sulfur dioxide
and suspended particulates (Table 2); third, it was necessary to measure
excess risk of illness rather than direct illness rates because studies
differed in their locale and their methods of ascertainment of illness;
fourth, it should be emphasized that the derived dose-response functions
are best judgment threshold functions (Figures 2-6), not precise mathematical
-------
DRAFT
10 °0 NOT QUOTE DR CITE
fits. Best judgment estimates were utilized because the data points
available for the assessment of a single adverse effect were not inde-
pendent. In the assessment of a single adverse effect each constituent
study yielded very few data points and the control of "no effects" level
assumed for each constituent study could differ from the "no effects"
level assumed for other studies used in the assessment of a single
adverse effect. Moreover, a single adverse effect might be differently
/
defined or ascertained in any set of studies. Thus, the authors delib-
erately chose to emphasize the roughness of their assessment by the best
judgment approach. In general, these best judgment functions (Table 3)
are more conservative in that they predict less excess illness than would
be the corresponding mathematical fits (Table 4). For asthma, the best
judgment estimates may be high as only warm days were considered by the
dose-response function. Despite these handicaps, the functions should
roughly quantify the expected adverse effects associated with various
exposures to sulfur oxides. Major research efforts are necessary to
improve these functions. Collecting such information will, however,
require several years and decision-makers require rough information before
the refined functions will be available.
HOW WILL GROWTH IN EMISSIONS
FROM STEAM ELECTRIC POWER PLANTS
ALTER HUMAN EXPOSURES TO
ACID SULFATE AEROSOLS?
Emissions from steam-electric power plants contribute to two different
types of human exposure: infrequent short-term elevations which are a
hazard for especially susceptible population groups and long-term elevations
-------
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
resulting from changes in overall urban and regional levels of acid-sulfate
aerosols.
**
The impact of short-term peak exposures in the vicinity of power
plants depends upon fuel consumed, plant location, stack height, topography,
meteorology, population susceptibility and population density in the impact
area. As yet, reliable national estimates for the adverse effects of in-
i
frequent short-term peak exposures are not available. A primary stumbling
block is our incomplete understanding of acid-aerosol formation in power
plant plumes. Estimates of such exposure increments have been made for a
number of locales. Sulfur dioxide exposure increments of greater than
900 pg/nr for 24 hours have been predicted and observed in areas impacted
by emissions from steam-electric power plants combusting high sulfur coal.
Over an area of one square kilometer most impacted around urban power
plants, incremental sulfur dioxide exposures of greater than 120 to 190 yg/iri3
and incremental acid-sulfate aerosol exposures of 3 to 6 yg/m^ could be
expected for about 20 days each year if these plants utilized coal or oil
containing typical quantities of sulfur (2-3%). Existing plume studies
suggest that sulfur dioxide in plumes from oil fired power plants may be
more rapidly converted to acid-aerosols than sulfur dioxide from coal
fired plants. Preliminary estimates of the associated increments in daily
mortality, aggravation of asthma and symptoms of heart and lung disease in
the elderly suggest that the expected effects in the immediate vicinity of
power plants are quite modest when compared to the effects expected across
an entire metropolitan area. It is, however, safe to say that a measurable
-------
DRAFT
12 00 NOT QUOTE OR CITE
increment in adverse health effects other than mortality is expected
and that the exposed population in these areas may number over 100,000.
More progress has been made in roughly quantifying the expected
increases in acid-sulfate aerosol exposures and the associated adverse
health effects that are expected to accompany increasing sulfur oxides
emissions over a power region or over several metropolitan areas.
Briefly the -steps employed are as follows:
* First, populations of each power region were placed into one
of four strata (based on the 1970 census): rural (including
places of less than 2500); urban places of less than 100,000;
urban areas larger than 100,000 but less than 2,000,000; and
urban areas larger than 2,000,000 (see appendix B).
* Next, a cumulative frequency distribution for the expected
24 hour suspended sulfate exposures and summary statistics
(arithmetic and geometric means and their standard deviations)
were estimated based upon the sulfate distributions monitored
at all National Air Sampling Network sites within each popula-
tion class in each power region (Table 5). The most current
year, usually 1970 but sometimes 1969, available from each site
was utilized.
* Next, it was assumed the regional changes in sulfur dioxide
emissions would be accompanied by proportionate changes in
suspended sulfates in power regions east of the Mississippi
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
I 0
River: NPCCMAAC, ECAR, MAIN, SERC. It was also assumed
that sulfur dioxide emissions from sources other than steam
electric power plants would not change between 1970 and 1980.
No changes in sulfate levels for other regions were postulated
for the present analysis even though currently nonpredictable
increases are likely to occur on a limited scale and these
estimates are included in Appendix E. Stated another way,
regional transport of acidsulfate aerosols was assumed only
for power regions generally east of the Mississippi. Thus any
adverse health effects occurring west of the Mississippi are
x
left out of the present estimate.
With these assumptions in mind, changes in acidsulfate aerosol
exposures were estimated using the suspended sulfate proxy. The probable
public health consequencies of each of the ten alternate emissions
scenarios summarized in Table 10 of the report entitled Power Generation:
Conservation, Health and Fuel Supply were evaluated. Basically these
scenarios consider probable emissions of sulfur oxides emissions under
varying conditions affecting demand for electric power, importation of
low sulfur petroleum fuels, conservation practices and installation of
permanent emissions controls for sulfur oxides. Using these techniques
it is possible to approximate how such factors, as pricing, conservation,
restruction of oil imports and installation of permanent emissions
controls are likely to affect public health. Sulfur oxide emissions for
each electric power region under each of the scenarios during 1975, 1977 and
-------
14
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
1980 are also shown in Appendix E. Five points are worth noting:
First, the influence of utility rates and fuel importation policy can
roughly have an affect on sulfur oxides emissions equal to installation
of permanent emissions controls. Second, conservation policies have a
maximal effect if permanent emissions controls are not quickly and
universally installed on candidate power plants. In other words, con-
servation practices and flue gas desulfurization might somehow in the
short term be optimally combined in a least cost fashion. Third,
importation of low sulfur fuels coupled with unrestrained demand and
historical growth would still leave an emissions problem equal to that
of the mid-19601s. In other words, emissions restraints other than the
increasingly costly use of low sulfur imports is required. Fourth,
important regional shifts in emissions which are likely to affect public
wealth can be hidden by national shifts. For example, all other things
oeing equal, it is probably more important to control emissions east of
the Mississippi than in the Great Plans region. Fifth, there is technical
consensus that actual demand will lie somewhere between the unrestrained
demand scenario of the National Electric Reliability Council and the
restrained demand scenarios forecast by our -Task Force. Thus, one can
assume that the health effects consequences projected for those different
scenarios will bound our expected problems. In fact, as we shall see,
the adverse effects on health are considerable under either scenario in
the absence of other conservation measures or installation of permanent
emissions controls.
-------
15 DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
WHAT IS THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE PUBLIC HEALTH PROBLEM LIKELY
TO FOLLOW A GROWTH IN EMISSIONS?
To answer this question one must use dose-response functions to
calculate the expected adverse effects, assuming that exposures are reduced
as standards are met, and compare these effects with adverse effects
calculated from the previously ascertained dose-response functions and the
expected acid-sulfate aerosol exposures under scenarios that assume that
standards are not met. Differences of interest can then be calculated by
subtraction. This step, however, must be preceded by defining the specific
segments of population at risk and the expected baseline frequencies of
the adverse< effects of interest. The specific procedures for accomplishing
these steps are found in Appendix C.
.The adverse health effects attributable to not meeting clean air
standards will be considerable (Table 6) under either the unrestrained
demand scenario or the restrained demand scenarios that do not employ
permanent emissions controls.* Using our best judgment estimates for the
unrestrained demand scenario, the number of excess or premature deaths
may reach over 3,000 per year by 1980 and the total excess between 1975
and 1980 could exceed 15,000. Each year an average elderly person will
experience an unnecessary 3 to 4 days when their chronic heart and lung
disorder will be perceptibly aggravated. If standards are not met, and
electricity demand is unrestrained, the excess number of aggravation days
for our senior citizens would be 10 million or more days each year and
total about 90 million days during the years 1975 to 1980. Each year a
*However, these effects constitute only a small fraction of total
mortality and morbidity. For example, best judgment mortality estimates
show excess mortality to be less than one quarter percent of total
mortality. This t°n approximates mortality from black lung disease.
-------
DRAFT
16 00 NOT QUOTE OR CITE
typical asthmatic might expect one unnecessary asthma attack. If
standards are not met, the excess number of asthma attacks would be six
million each year and could total about 25 million during the years 1975
through 1980. Each year otherwise health children would experience 250
to 450 thousand more common but severe acute respiratory disorders like
croup, acute bronchitis and pneumonia. If standards are not met, adults
would be burdened more frequently with persistent chronic respiratory
disease symptoms. In 1975 an excess of over 500,000 adults would be
involved and by 1980 an excess of over 1,000,000 adults might be expected
to report persistent chronic respiratory disease symptoms. If a least
squares fit estimate is utilized (Table 8), or if demand is restrained
but emissions are not controlled (Tables 7 and 9), the picture is not
substantially changed. One is still faced with thousands of premature
deaths and millions of excess illnesses.
In summary, present rough estimates conclude that substantial
excess adverse health effects can be expected each year if clean air
requirements are not met: thousands of premature deaths, millions of
days of illness among susceptible segments of the population, hundreds
of thousands of needless acute lower respiratory illnesses in otherwise
healthy children and hundreds of thousands of chronic respiratory disorders
among adults. If the health impacts of short-term fumigations prove
larger than expected, or if regional effects occur in the western power
regions, the calculations of excess adverse effects given here may prove
overly conservative.
It is important to remember that the present ambient sulfur dioxide
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CIT1
standards would be about what is necessary to protect public health if
dispersion conditions were good and if acid-aerosols did not intrude
from up wind sources. . One should also recall that the sulfur oxides
criteria document recognized the problem of acid aerosols but that the
knowledge at that time led one to believe that long range transport of
aerosols was not a major constraint for air quality standards. Newer
information has shown that long range transport is a major constraint.
HOW MUCH MUST SULFUR
OXIDES BE CONTROLLED?
We have seen that meeting Clean Air Act requirements for reducing
sulfur oxide emissions from power plants should prove beneficial .in
protecting public health and that any residual adverse health effects
would be quite modest (zero to sixteen percent of 1970 estimates) under
our best judgment estimates. Residual effects would be somewhat more
significant under the least squares fit estimates. In either case one
would still be faced with the problem of adverse effects among asthmatics
and the elderly who are especially susceptible population segments. In
other words, meeting Clean Air Act requirements should greatly benefit,
but not completely protect public health from adverse effects attributable
to acid sulfate aerosol exposures.
The comparative importance of decelerating growth in demand, fuel
policy, conservation and permanent emissions controls such as flue gas
desulfurization should be appreciated. First of all, it is not likely
that historical rates of growth in electricity demand will long persist.
Of all factors considered, completion of new nuclear plants now underway
coupled with a slowing of the growth in demand even in the face of
-------
DRAFT
18 00 NOT QUOTE OR C1T
restricting oil imports could reduce excess mortality, excess acute
lower respiratory illness and excess chronic respiratory disease by one-
half. This would also reduce aggravation of asthma and heart and lung
disease by about one-fifth. These emissions changes coupled with reason-
able conservation measures could reduce excess mortality, excess acute
lower respiratory disease and excess chronic respiratory disease by
/
three-quarters or more. Similarly, aggravation of asthma and heart and
lung disease would be reduced by two-fifths. It should be apparent that
national policies aimed at protecting public health through the control
of sulfur oxide emissions should also consider the effects of conservation
and changes in growth on a regional basis.
Given the uncertainties in our present information base one would
not advocate more stringent, sulfur dioxide emission controls. However,
it may well prove desirable in some locales to enhance the effectiveness
of sulfur dioxide controls by controlling interacting pollutants. For
example, one might find it necessary to control metal particulates which
can efficiently convert low level urban emissions into acid sulfate
aerosols, especially in cities with large metallurgical complexes. In
other words, there is good reason to proceed with the control of sulfur
dioxide emissions from new power plants and large industrial boilers.
Because of the widespread nature of the acid sulfate aerosol problem, it
would seem prudent, if at all possible to first retrofit the newer,
usually larger, power plants and industrial boilers allowing them to use
high sulfur fuels and to divert clean fuels including low sulfur coal to
older power plants, smaller industrial boilers and homes (Figures 7-9).
If one would permanently control 90 percent of the sulfur dioxide emissions
-------
DRAFT
' DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
\ *.
from the 50 largest existing utility plants east of the Mississippi one
would reduce total man-made sulfur oxide emissions by 15 percent.
Similar control of emissions from the 150 largest, generally newer
industrial boilers, again mostly in the eastern United States, would
further reduce man-made sulfur dioxide emissions by 10 percent. If one
utilizes a simple roll back model and does not retrofit larger industrial
facilities one would have to require very stringent control of all new
sources and not achieve reductions in sulfates below best judgment
estimates for health effects thresholds for many years. On the other
hand, it also seems reasonable to emphasize again that the permanent
emissions controls called for in the state implementation plans will do
a very good job in reducing adverse health effects attributable to
sulfur oxides.
'At this time one cannot describe a single best option for the
control of acid-sulfate aerosol exposures or a precise determination of
the degree of emissions control necessary. There can be little doubt
that a key element in any control option will be permanent emissions
control for larger power plants and industrial boilers. The degree of
control necessary should not require future major changes in the permanent
emissions control systems now becoming available for steam electric
power plants and industrial boilers to meet current emissions and air
quality standards. This does not, however, preclude the possibility
that New Source Performance Standards may not be made more stringent in
the future.
One should also realize that acid-sulfate aerosols could rapidly
become a widespread regional problem in the western half of the United
States if emissions are allowed to increase rapidly in these states and
cause a concomitant rapid deterioration in air quality. Indeed, there is
-------
DRAFT ~~
2Q DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
evidence that such aerosols already affect several large populated basins
in the western United States. It would seem prudent then to plan for
permanent emissions controls on all new power plants and industrial
sources in this part of our nation as well. In the case of acid-sulfate
aerosols, one cannot rely upon dispersion or favorable siting as a
permanent solution for any area of,our country.
WHAT IMPORTANT CAVEATS MUST BE KEPT IN MIND?
* The answers to the preceding questions are current best judgments
but they are clouded by significant scientific uncertainties involving
many key aspects of the sulfur oxides problem. These have been dealt
with in some detail in previous technical reviews and briefing documents
that are public information.
* Interpretations of historical trends in emissions and air quality
are hampered by a very limited data base. Indeed, our current monitoring
systems for sulfur dioxide, suspended sulfates, strong acids, precipita-
tion chemistry, trace metals, ammonia, and hydrocarbons are not adequate
enough to answer pertinent questions about the origin, transformation
and removal of sulfur oxide air pollutants. Simultaneous monitoring in
urban, suburban and rural settings is required.
* Current measurements of suspended sulfates serve as a useful
proxy for acid-sulfate aerosols but measurements that delineate particle
size and chemical composition are required for sulfur compounds and
other aerosol components. Aerosols of natural and man-made origins must
be characterized and differentiated.
* The mechanisms and rates for the transformation of sulfur dioxide
to acid-sulfate aerosols in plumes and in the atmosphere are not well
-------
DRAFT
2] DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
understood. Plumes from controlled and uncontrolled industrial and
power plant combustion sources should be studied.
* Predictive models which will give needed precision to estimates
of long range transport and the influence of emission height must be
developed.
* More soundly based dose-response functions for the adverse
effects on public health and welfare must be developed. Interlocking
clinical, epidemiological and laboratory animal studies are required to
reduce scientific uncertainties about adverse health effects. Carefully
designed studies of plant damage, material degradation, visibility im-
pairment and climatic changes are required to develop reasonable damage
functions for adverse effects on the public welfare.
* Sound societal judgments can be based only on a sound scientific
information base. Failure to acquire the needed information will lead
to needless discord and likely to one or more national economic or
public health tragedies.
MAJOR CONCLUSIONS
* Failure to control sulfur oxides emissions may well result in
thousands of excess deaths and millions of excess illnesses.
* Acid-sulfate aerosols represent a complex public health and reg-
ulatory problem.
* Control of sulfur oxide emissions from urban and rural power
plants will be required.
-------
22
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
* National policies coordinating growth in energy demand, fuel
policy, conservation practices and requirements for permanent
»
emissions controls must be carefully coordinated.
* It is our best judgment that massive conversion of urban power
plants to high sulfur fuels and the use of tall stacks with
supplementary control systems in rural power plants will greatly
increase sulfate concentrations and endanger public health.
* Uncertainties in our scientific information base will foster
major societal disagreements about the steps necessary to
control the problem.
* Scientific uncertainties are being reduced by research programs
but important information gaps will remain for five to ten years.
-------
23
DRAFT
00 NOT QUOTE OR CITE
Table 1
Thirty Year'Trend in Sulfur Oxides Emissions
from Steam Electric Power Plants
Electric Power Region
Northeast Power Coordinating
Council (NPCC) and Mid
Atlantic Area Coordinating
Group (MACC)
East Central Area Reliability
Coorci nation Agreement (ECAR)
America Interpool
Network (MAIN)
Southeastern Electric
Reliability Council (SERC)
Mid Continent Area Reliability
Coorci nation Agreement (i!ARCA)
Southwest Power Pool (SV.'PP)
and Electric Reliability
Council of Texas (ERCOT)
Western Systems Coordinating
Council (WSCC)
Yearly Sulfur Dioxide Emissions (Millions of Tons!
1950 1960 1969 1980 Estimates Under Un-
restrained Demand Scenat
Standards Standards
Met
1.0
.9 1.3
3.1
2.0
1.0
0.4
0.26
0.05
3.6
1.6
1.8
0.3
0.16
6.2
2.7
3.6
0.6
0.4
0.04 0.09 0.2
Not Met
3.4
10.0
3.7
6.5
1.2
2.2
2.3
1.0
2.2
0.4
0-4
1.1
0.5
United States**
4.6
P
O
16.7
28.1
778^
Nationwide Sulfur Oxides ***
Emissions
23.8 23.3
32.4
43.0
22.7
* Assumes growth in power generation to 3.2 trillion KWH by 198C. "Standards
not met" assumes continued use of oil imports but no further effort to meet
"Clean Air Act" requirements restricting sulfur dioxide emissions.
** 1974 estimate 20.8 million tons.
*** 1940 emissions 21.5; Mo change in emissions from sources other than power
plants assumed between 1970 and 1980.
-------
24
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
Table 2
Recapitulating 24-hour Levels o'f Suspended Sulfates from
Measured Levels of Sulfur Dioxide*
Y = 9 + ,03x 1959 - 1960 Nashville**
sulfate in sulfur dioxide Study (r=.8)
yg/m in yg/m
Y = 9 + .05x 1966 - 1967 NASN data***
sulfate in sulfur dioxide from 8 inland cities
yg/m3 in yg/nr (^ = .5)
Recapitulating Annual Average Suspended Sulfate Levels from
Measured Levels of Sulfur Dioxide
Y = 9 + .04x Pooled NASN data from
sulfate in sulfur dioxide NY City, Chicago and New
yg/m3 in yg/m3 Jersey - 1962 - 1967
(r= .6)
*Similar recapitualtion equations are available which link particulates and
suspended sulfates
**used for English and Japanese studies where like Nashville intruding sulfates
were not a problem
***used for U.S. studies
-------
25
DO
DRAFT
NOT QUOTE OR CITE
CU
_a
ra
r
o
CO
o
s_
OJ
CO
ro 4-3
M- CJ
r- OJ
3 '4-
LO '+-
1 i^
-o
O M
E co c:
r- i. O)
I O) E
> cn
LO T3 T3
C =C 3
o o
r- O
4-> O) 4->
U (-> LO
COO)
3 O) CQ
'o>
O i/O
o
O) t->
t/>
lose Respor
Exposures
CJ
_c
cn
O
L-^
*
C
o
4*
o
c
3
U_
OJ
CO
C
O
CX
CO
O)
o:
O)
CO
o
a
o
o
4-3
CO
i
OJ
o
ra
i-
ro
c"
K
*
*
O! -
o ra -a E
m CU "*-,
4-> x> cn
r- C C 3
E 0 0)
1 ! CX CO
1 4-) CO OJ
0 3 4->
J- T- ^ ra
O) TD **-
ex cu s- i
CX S- O 3
ro a.1*- LO
1 ^
CX
O)
o
s-
4->
c
CO
CX
o
to
l(_
o
c
o
4-) c:
tr3 ra
d Concentr
Sul fates
Duration
r TJ CO
O OJ i-
co c: co
CO CO O
s- ex ex
x: to x
J 3 LU
to
*
*
4J
u
0)
LU
.C
ro
OJ
o:
0)
LO
0)
>
o
o
VO
o
LO
LO
CO
LO
CM
o o
co co
e> j
4*J>
r
r
ra
S-
o
5:
^.^
^
r
ro - *
Q co
OJ
CU !-
LO T3
ra 3
CU 4->
S- LO
O
C «3-
^
CM
O
1
.««.
^3-
r~"
0
CO
S-
o
LO
3
O
-C
^f
CM
S-
o
ro
E i-
^ co
en cn
3 c
O
a
c >,
rO
I * CU ^"^
i- T3 LO
ro r 10 CO
ro "- 4J
> Q C
re Ol
S- cn-i-
01 C 4->
Cn 3 ra
,_
O
CM
CD
1
vn
CO
CO
o
CO*
S-
0
LO
i.
3
0
**
CVJ
S-
o
CO
E
*s>Vi^
cn
3- i-
o>
O cn
i C
1 O
LO
ra
E
-C
4->
CO
^^
<+-
o
c »
O LO
i- 0)
rO T3
> 3
rO 4J
i- LO
cn
cn*d"
0
O
CJ
,_!
1
cr>
LO
f*».
o
o
LO
S-
rO
CO
>|
^
ra
s-
QJ
CO
LO
J_
0
«*-
T)
E
CD
3
co
r-*
C
T-
^^^
(1) CO
S- CO O)
tt) ra -r-
3: co -a
O co 3
_J -r- 4J
O co
CU
4~* ^j "'J"
^3 i ^ ^
0 0
*j >^
O O
l_« 1 «
o o
4-* 4-*
CX CX
3 3
S- i.
o o
tt ^1
OO CO
E E
***** *"***..
cn cr>
3. 3.
o to
r r
O
r ^m *
C LO
O CO
V. v-
x: -a
CJ 3 LO
4-> 5-
S- LO OJ
O -*
** LO O
> E
J^ CO LO
CO CO i-
- T- CO CO
a: 4-» -v 4J
i- O -t->
LO x: E co
to o to i-
CU C ra
tj o c cn
X S- O T-
CO
s-
ro
LO
4J
O)
O
C
CO
-o
r-
o
o
r
rO
0
r
4J
LO
^
40
03
1 ^
CO
a
c
ra
4->
c
O)
o
c
CO
CX
CO
T3
c
1
o
c
CO
t«
ra
CO
c
0
1
40
o
3
14
4J
c
OJ
e
cn
-o
3
f~3
40
CO
CO
.a
CU
-o
1
3
o>
o
4J
O
ai
CO
3
CO
CO
+J
ra
r
S-
cx
o
^
J-
o
cn
CO
4->
ro
o
CO
) *
u
CU
lt_
t_
CO
*>»J
i-«
CO
>
CU
c
I
*>^
-o
3
CO
JZ
u
rO
OJ
t.
o
l*-
co
4->
ra
C-
O)
CO
ra
.a
t.
CO
>
o
CO
CO
CO
CJ
X
CU
4->
gr
CO
CJ
CU
CX
CO
ra
o
OJ
extrapolations were unusual
c~
CJ
3
CO
CO
O)
CO
>^
^~
ro
C
ra
S-
cu
^ >^
rO
C
* 1
CO
/^
rO
r-»
^«
OJ
S-
co
co
CO
r *
CU
s_
Jp
I/)
4-*
r-
E
r**
,»«.
O)
CO
O)
c*
4J
O)
>
0
r"i
03
CO
C
O
4-^
rt3
r
o
CX
4J CX4-> ro
c
.p-
o
O_
-K
CX
ra
c
1
4->
o
o_
*
*
i-
1 ^
X
LU
*
*
c
O -X
4~> O
3 >-
.Q
r- 3
S- 0)
4J "Z.
CO
r- 0)
-a -G
i C
S- -1-
ra
O) O)
>} "
CX
en E
C ro
r- co
i S-
3 ra
CO OJ
OJ >,
s_
0) OJ
_c: cx
t
ra
-a
CO 1
rO
E
4-*
t/1
03
X?
C
fO
>^
4_)
>r_
P^.
^
o
E
J^
JJ_J
r
^
>»
'rjj
S-
ra
^.
cn
c
r
s~
3
CJ
u
o
r
O)
>
CU
^^
O)
-a
X
o
1 .
-o
J^,
.-3
<4-
r~"
3
CO
E
O
5-
-o
O)
40
ra
f
3
4->
r
CX
rO
CJ
01
s_
O)
S-
CU
3;
in
i^1
cu
>
OJ
^
OJ
4«>
ra
M-
i
3
CO
s_
3
O
C~
i.
3
O
H-
I
>j
4_>
sr
OJ
S
h-
*
*
LO
CM
rO
c
o
TD
OJ
CO
ra
.a
^
o
*r
4-J
33
jQ
r
i_
4->
I/)
-a
^^
LO
e£
^^
"O
CU
>
i-
OJ
1>1
-O
o
OJ
4_)
T3
OJ
JC
o
4_>
ra
E
co
r .
OJ
>
0)
r
0)
4->
rO
M-
t
3
CO
>^
r
r~
ra
T^J
Cl_
Q
0)
r
co
CO
o
CX
I/)
ro
2
CO
0)
r
o
3
:{_)
CO
0
3
4->
i-
O>
5
o
0)
,CI
4-)
c
Of
(/I
r
O)
>
0)
r
O)
4->
fO
<4-
r
3
co
(4_
0
c
o
1
4_>
*TJ
T3
r-
f
fO
>
_0
(/)
CD
>r_
*o
H3
4->
(/>
-------
26
DRAFT
00 NOT QUOTE OR CITE
CD
GO i
1 H3
-a oj
U 4J
(11
.^ XI S~
C «a: ITJ
r- 3
J XI CT
CU CO
CO -»->
C O »->
O CU to
r- I 03
4-> O> CU
O CO 1
c. ^-^
3 0
LJ_ -(->
CU 01
to cu
c s-
O 3
CL 01
CO O
CU CL
a: x
UJ
cu
to
O
Q
f Dose Response Function*
o
o
r-
+->
CO
r-
i-
aj
4->
O
C
> 1
cu
Q-
o
CO
f-
o
c
O T3
r- C
+J 03
(0
s- to
4-> CU C
C 4-> O
CU 03 -
0 4- 4->
C 03
0 3 J-
O CO 3
Q
X) XJ
CU CU
O X) 5-
-C C 3
01 CU to
CU Q. O
i- 01 O.
_e 3 x
t CO UJ
^
1
+J
U
cu
(f.
<4-
Ul
.c
4->
x>
<
o
UD
e
*f
cn
PO
o
o
1
C71
r
CO
O
o
0
S-
o
to
i-
3
o
-C
*!
CM
J-
o
Cj_
CO
E 4-
^-^ cu
cn CD
3 C
O
CM i
r
*
*
*
*
>>
4-?
^«
0}
4->
s_
o
2:
>>
f
^o ^ ^
Q CO
CU
CU «i-
CO XJ
fO 3
CU +->
S- V)
(J
C «3-
> t -
0
LO
t
(0.-?
s_
+J CU--^
S- "O to
03 r- CU
CU UJ -i-
31 T3
C 3
01 01
(0 -r- +J
> Q C
03 CU
i- C7>-r-
cn c +>
O> 3
CO
O
CD
1
LT>
O
CM
O
O
S-
o
to
S-
3
O
JC
^3-
CM
S-
O
*»-
CO S-
e cu
-^ cn
cn c
3 0
r
CO
ITJ
E
x:
+->
CO
<
c>-
O
C ^""^
O 01
r- CU
!-> -r-
(8 ~O
> 3
(0 -U
i- to
cn
cn«y
e£ , ,
LO
CM
LO
CM
^J-
O
1
r^
LO
*±
o
o
I/)
L.
ITJ
CU
>>
ITJ
S-
cu
>
cu
CO
i.
o
<*-
CO
E
"^^
cn
3
cn
c
T
^ *
CU CO
S- CO CU
CU ITJ !-
s cu -o
O VI 3
_J -r- -->
O u)
cu
-!-> >>«3-
3 Z--~'
U O
«C <-> C
03 CU
to S- S-
CO -f T3
CU CXr
U CO -i-
X CU J=
LU cn o
0 0
CO CO
> >>
0 O
r_ l_
0 0
-»-> 4->
Q. 0.
3 3
&. &_
O O
Cl- l»_
co co
E E
"**^s» **"x»
cn cn
a. 3.
O LO
^- i
0
r- ^^»
C CO
O CU
i- 'I-
x: x)
O 3 CO
4-> S-
i- 01 CU
o -^
<*- vo o
E
J>i CO CO
01 01 S-
r- -i- CU CU
ct: +J -* 4-»
- O -M
co ^: E cu
cu
,
4->
f
JD
(T3
!_
03
>
<4-
O
oo
CU
4->
ITJ
4->
to
CU
CU
01
O
CU
CL
o
c
ITJ
4->
C
CU
-^3
cu
Q.
cu
X)
c
^
>1
3
S-
4->
4->
0
c
cu
i_
03
-(->
«4-
01
CU
S-
T3
3
CT
01
4->
to
ITJ
CU
r-*
CU
4->
3
CL
E
0
o
o
4-> 0)
!->
X> ftJ
CU -r-
01 S-
3 Q.
O
to s-
4-> Q.
C O.
r- 03
O C
CO U CO S- ' Q. -r-
cu c ITJ , *
o o c cn !
X i- 0 -r- i
LU cn r: o
>>
0
cn
0)
i *
ITJ
0
to
+j
o
cu
<+-
**-
cu
£
cu
>
cu
c
>,
XJ
3
+J
01
_C
CJ
03
CU
S_
o
l+_
cu
+J
03
s~
cu
01
03
J3
S_
CU
>
0
CO
CO
CU
O
X
cu
+J
c
cu
o
4.
cu
Q.
to
03
X)
CU
4J
4->
O
r
a.
*
*
i extrapolations were unusual
-*- _
O
3
to
CO
cu
to
>,
03
C
03
S_
O)
4->
rj
^
C
14
cu
r
_n
OJ
"cu
i.
Ol O3
01 E
cu x:
i +J
01
CU 03
S-
UJ XI
C
Ol ,T3
-C
'- >»
E -i->
r-^ r -
ro
CU 4->
CO S-
cu o
^= e
+->
JC
CU 4->
> -
O 2
.0
rt3 >>
CO CU
C S-
O OJ
r- i.
4->
oj cn
C
o -
Q- S-
ITJ S_
S- 3
+J 0
X O
LU O
*
*
*
CL
03
to
S-
(T3
*R
03 V-
CU Ol
X, Q. CU
cn >,!Q
C 03 -r-
- XJ CO
+J 1 01
r LD O
3 CM Q.
01
CU 03 01
t- 03
CU O
J= 01
1 XJ CU
CU T-
01 X>
03 3
01 JD 4->
F co
cu c:
> 0 0
CU-r- 2
+J -U
^
CU ^3 1.
T3 -r- O
f i- <
X 4-> 4->
' O 01 O
x> x> cy
i- 2: 4->
3 CO
°- "i C
i z:
^3
Ol X> i/l
O) r
= > CD
0 S_ >
S- O> CD
'I ^ ^^
_Q
XI O CU
CU 4-J
4-J CL> 03
03 JT <+-
>(-> 1
3 3
V> X! 01
r d}
Q.-H o<_
03 O O
0 -P
O 03 CT
S- E O
CU 01 4J
i- i 03
CU CU X3
3 > -r-
GJ i
to * 03
i >
CU CU
> 4J O
0) 03 2:
i <4~
O) 3
4J 01 01
03 CU
0>- >,T-
r i "O
3-1-3
01 03 4J
X> 01
S-
3 4- ^»:
O O i-
-C O
c >-
i- O
3-1-3
o +-> S- JC
C -M 4->
CU to
2 - c
1 XJ -1-
*
k
K
*
-------
27
Q
in i
in vo
10
IO
ro
in
CO
co
DRAFT
00 NOT QUOTE OR nit
o
o ro
.
|x
CO
0 E
3 3.
-Q T.
r »
s- in
-U t/5
I/I (O
5 o
>s C
0 0
C -
3 (T3
CTf
a) 3
£- a.
LO Ll- O
Q.
(U <1>
> -o
*"^ 'r~ C
h TO
. C
3 0
c- "
3 CT
;_> O
c;
(U
40 >*
fO O"l
<+- S.
i
3
J3 O
r- m
t.
40
to
f-
Q O
=>
in
in
ro
CO
en
CO
CM
CO
o
CM
in
00*
r
cv
Is".
(
VO
^J*
ro
ro
r
C\J
r
i~
^o
en
GO
10
o
CO
CM
0
CM
CM
CM
cn
r
CT»
VO
^~
r
»
t^
r__
IT)
CM
r~
f^,.
r
i
C\j
o
r
ro
00
«=»-
CO
o
o
en
VO
en
CO
co'
CM
CM
CM
CM
f
^1
CM
O
r*s.
r~*
^j-
in
r
) >^
ro
r
o
*
r
^~-
^O
^
to
^^
m
C3
co
00
vn
CM
in
o
CM
«
CO
f
<_J-
^
r
o
*st"
f»W
f"~
.
ro
i
o
C\J
*
00
a\
«3*
CO
CM
VO
CM
VO
CO
CO
o
*
CO
en
r--.
vo
vo
CO
^^
^t"
^
CM
^J*
CO
CO
VO
-------
28
IO
10
CO
en
"»
-a
OJ
Z3
C
r-
4 -
C"
O
o
* »
LO
cu
r
_Q
(T3
h
o e
r- ^-^
-i-> en
3 a.
.£3
r *
S- i/l
-M l/l
tO i c:
0 O
C T-
Ol 4->
n3 n3
cr,
ai -J
s- a.
u_ a
C-
CJ
> 1:3
1 £;
&-* r3
rO
j c
3 O
£ *'
13 ^n
(_) CD
a:
a>
4-* >*
(O CJ>
<4- J_
f a>
=3 C
t/1 UJ
o
0
o
»
o
o
o
*
CM
o
o
o
o
*
o
0
r-~
1
t
(/I
to
c
o
r
It)
f" l-
3
a.
o
o_
cd
Q
to
O
CO '
0
Ix"
Q
to
t »
L.
4_>
to
.r-
a o
^j-
>^
o
c
QJ
a o
crro
0)
s_
u.
o
CM
O
~
c
f
2*
c
o
r-
CU
e:
^
a>
o
a.
^i
01
tf- «ej-
«* m *s- ^j-
m ^i- co en
CM o en «*
CM O CO
CM CO IO i
en o co r--
^^ co co en
co en r^ in
ro CM oo CM
t^ co in in
CO CO » CO
»
VO 1 Ift tf
in in ^ i^.
'
in to ^- co
10 in rx o
^r in co co
en co r * ^~
CO ^- CO CM
O CM r O
CM O r-^ O
* 00
IO CVJ t*« r
II II II 1
I/I (/I (/)
eu cu eu cu
r* "r -r- *r
r- «r- 't~ »r»
U O 0 H- 0
O
o o o a: o
III
ill
. «c . i .
SO OO OO 0-0
*Hr: a:^ o:?: exs
in
CO
CO
en
«=!-
r-
co
r-.
*
co
vo
in
in
CO
^~
CO
^*
CO
CO
CO
CO
vo
CM
OO
"
o
*
o
t
*
II
in
eu
r-
r-
U
*^
O
.
o o
1SI *~~
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
CO
-------
29
ra
o
CM
VO
CO
VO
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
O r-
0); «
Ol X CM
O
o
en
CO
CO
co
CO
CO
LO
CO
Q
V)
in
VO
LO
LO
LO
VO
VO
CO
to
LO
CM
X
re
0
o
CT>
*
CO
o
»
CM
*
^~
LT>
CO
*
01
CO
o
LO
CO
cn
i CM
CM r t
3
C
'£J
C
o
CJ
^ '
LO
O)
_O
ro
t
o e
-M cn
3 J.
S- I/)
4-> l/l
(/) P3
Q O
(J 0
C -
QJ 4-»
3 FJ
C7~r
CJ 3
S- Q.
U. O
O-
(1)
> "O
r- C
4_> ^3
ra
i C
3 O
E <-
3 cn
O
a:
w
4J ^t
(O oi
«*- J_
i O)
3 C
OO LXl
O
O
0
^3
0
0
4-)
0
o
ur>
*
CM
(/I
(/I
at
O
c
o
o
CO
o
°«o
C VO
0
4»
3
XI 0
r- in
v^
4_>
(/)
r~
0 0
>>
u
c
(D
3 0
croo
O)
&_
u_
o
CM
O
I
CO
CO
CO
*
LO
d-
CJ
r-"
CO
o
r"~
CO
CT»
C\J
CO
0
VO
O
LO
VO
CM
LO
VO
cn
CM
CO
l~
f^Sfc
r-
VO
»
*
LO
O
CM
CO
r>.
J2
r-
CM
cn
CO
LO
VO
00
CM
CM
LO
r.
JZ
co
cn
LO
CM
CO
CM
VO
LO
CM
O
VO
CM
cn
VO
0
LO
O r
co r>-
co cn
CO
CM
00
CM
i CM
CO
LO
CO
VO
r-.
co
LO
cn
vo
CM
VO
CM
LO
cn
co
CM
VO
o
LO
cn
o
cn
cn
co
in
ro
CO
r** co
CM
vo
LO
LO
en
cn
CM
CM
o
er
g
mum was considerab
O)
I/I
o
3
O
c
o
i.
VI
ra
Q.
O
Q-
ZT r CM
CM
CM
o
CM
o
o
o
I
o
O
(0
u
c
o
CM
CM
cn
V
C£. II
i. IS
o> a
o
a.
CO
0)
O
en ^ o
4J
^
V)
O
II *
0) 4)
I « i i
r- f
U> M
o; 3 o o o cj o
-------
, s
-o
CU
c
F
+J
c
o
CJ
rt
a1
i~\
fO
1
CO
c. «*»
o e
*-> C7>
3 3.
fi
r-
V. (/>
4-» CO
i/i fO
r-~ f
a cj
>. c
O O
C -r~ "*
CU 4-> C
Z3 fO (T3
0" *O
O 3 S-
S_ O. 3
U_ O C
Ci- O
a» r-
> -&
- c
4-J ra
. C t-
3 o 3
E - c-:
3 CT
cj cu i
CV |
CD
*-> >, t/l
OO LU
C
o
*3
a.
o
a.
a
'
a
CO
o
CJj| X
^
fi
r
i-
Ix
X
03
0
CD
O
CO
0
«J^
*o
c vo
o
f
-(J
13
-O O
* LT>
S-
4J
(/>
-f
C~l C^
<^"
>r«.
^;
c
o
on
CJ
err
j_
CO
3:
0
a.
^>^
C31
t-
4J
C
LU
r CO
CO . VO
r r
CM VO
r~x LO
V t^
LO CO
r-». m
co vo
CM CO
*
r^» fO
CO CM
CTV r-N.
2 ^
CM
« VO
CM
r I**
CO CO
C7» VO
f «^-
co vo
CO O
ps» VO
CM CO
UD Lf)
CO CM
LD ^r
CO "3-
^j~ ro
vo ^f}
OO OJ
o ou
O CM
r*» CM
a n
Wl (A
a> cu
4-* -M
f *r
iA Wl
CJ
< V)_ M-
O Ct' O
c_) ^T <^ r^
Q. 0
VO O O
!>, LT> CM
r r CM
oo r-. co
«a- r^. CM
CT> vr en
o co" ^-'
vo m * -f .
in oo co "
vo co 01
CO CM 1-^
c CM
o to o
CM co in
m **-
VO
o *r
«-
r^ CO f***
in cr» co
>c- co vo
tf CO CO
0 0 CM
«3- oo co
CO O> CO
CO VO CM
VO «4- «e
CO vo .
«=r in
CO in r-
^" CO CO
CM ^1- O
co «* o
o
i r** CM
ana
ui in t/i
cu ai
4-3 4-> 4-*
.^- r »
VI VI I/I
««-<«-«*-
O O O
^f
7t O CJ O CJ O
x: a: 7; cr: P:
*^ 1 * I c^
CT>
VO
r~"
CM
un
CO
CO
CO
' IO
-
vr
CO
vo
1
CM
CO
CO
CO
r^.
in
CM
in
vo
^>
,.
^^
vo
CO
0%
CM
r
cn
B
A
V
4-1
r~
^~ VI
O
O *-
or o
LU
t
0. O
a. r-z
CO
vo
^~
vo
CM
^.'
^*
co
CO
^^
r
CM
in
CM
^i"
f*«ifc
CO
1C
CO
CO
CM
Pv.
CM
CO
CM
CD
CM
CO
r~
O
O
II
VI
a*
*)T~
VI
*f^
o
CJ O
CJ 2:
01
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITi
oo 3C oo
-------
31
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
o
C)
jri
trj
~3
-O
r- CO
i- CU
4~> tO
< 4J
00
01
40 ~CJ
u cu
a 4->
If- -e-
4-- C
UJ 13
JC C
M S-
c-- CU
"3 4->
a to
31 (0
UJ
CJ
VO O
JD -O E
(O ^* *r~
1
M~ CO
O CO
^.
t.O 3
CJ CO
4J O
r3 CX
E- X
r- UJ
1 *
10 tO
LiJ CU
o
.c: T-
CT> X
3 O
a
r~-s c
^3
4J t^.
C i
CU 3
H tO
c^n
t^
:3
'"D
4J
10
1U
CD
K
O
c
tO
C
0)
0
"^J
c
ra
p:
O)
f~1
"O
cu
c
r
(O
S-
1 '
co
0)
S-
c
*~1
CJ
1 »
s-
a>
-o
c
" 1
CO
r
O
CO
o
s_
cu
**
cu
tO
Vf~
r
oo
-o
o
o
4->
cu
.0
tO
4_)
^j
JD
*r~
s_
4->
1 *
*-£
to
CO
cu
c
r
r ~
t t
t4_
O
to
cu
4^
fO
r-
r
4-)
to
UJ
JT
CD
^3
O
fr^
CO
4J O
O CO
cu cn
"4- r
(+_
UJ
cu
co r-.
&. P***"
cu cn
> i
-a
"^
to LO
cu r-~
o en
X r
UJ
O
CO
* cn
K
4J
cu r*^
^* r^
cn
4-} ^~
o
*y*
LO
to r~~.
~o cn
S- r
(O
-o
c o
to r^*
4-> cn
CO r
* o
-K 00
K ai
4J i
O)
s:
r^
co r~~
-o cn
5-
rO
-a
C LO
^>^ O
to to -I
r-~ *r ^~-
3 a:
CX -i-
0 4-> -Z.
ex to «.
to
^j
a
cu
M-
lf_
UJ
JC
4J
p_
-o
*x
LT>
^O
o
oo
oo
LO
O-J
CM
CM
CM
LO
i
OO
p«
CM
OO
r
O
^"
C\J
CO
^O
cn
i
O
00
en
CO
«^~
I
00
t^"
p .
p
^J-
^>
^"
*
r^.
co
r_
^>
jjj
fp~
r
C ^J
O 4->
i. S-
<4- O
21
-C >>
4~> r-^
tO -r-
OU fO
i
^«
.
cn
r^
o
VO
r
CO
0
oo
^J-
CM
cn
o
CM
cn
CO
r
CO
CO
cn
^J"
er>
^*
P«
00
p^fc
00
* *
to
c
4J O
S- -r-
ftJ r-"
cu
31 T-
21
-a -~-*
cu
4-> CU
fO tO
> fO
tO CU
s- to
cn-r-
cna
i^^
cn
»*- c
O 3
_J
CO
>> "O
to C
Q tO
^J*
*
vo
^-
^
LO
i
LO
4
OO
-^
00
CO
CO
f*"*
1
i
r**»
--,
CO
U5
^j-
CvJ
^J-
CM
*»o
00
f~.
*^*
^^^
(/)
c
o
r-
,
r~-
r
^T"
If **~*
O
CO
S ..Mf
a> o
-Q ft3
E i ^
3 4-^
*2I *^C
TD U
CU !-
CO 4->
lO IO
cu e
S- JC
U 4->
C CO
H- eC
O
CO
trt
LO
CO
o
LO
CM
O
CO
LO
LO
oo
CM
cn
CM
OO
o
oo
O
0
CM
«^-
CM
LO
OO
CU
to
tO ^
CU CO
CO T3
r- c:
O ro
to
>> 3
S- 0
O J=
4J f
c_
r- C
CX CU
tO S-
cu -o
CtL r-
r*
S- J=
CU C_3
2
O E
_J 'I*
_
00
o
o
r~*
^J-
u?-
jxjjr
x-«s
t^
OJ
^w«*
*^«l.
l«
OJ
^-^
X* »
OJ
f
r
"s_rf-
«*-« *»
LT)
*
CO
CO
- -
K
*
X ^
to
T3
E
fO
CO
3
O
-C
>} ^«
i- ^*
o
4-> tO
to e
s- o
CX CX
cn E
cu >»
ai to
o cu
i tO
E tO
O CU
4- CO
J= -r-
CJ Q
00 O
CM 00
VO OO
r OO
cnr-*
«3- CM
vo oo
00 O
00 CM
cn o
^f CO
vo ro
CM 00
r f^
LO CM
CM «3-
*^ r~~
«* CM
VD OO
CM CM
* CM
i
CM O
r~
CM O
VO
O
r- VO
CO f~-
r r
LO OO
CO
S-
cu
O
E
CO LO
i-
cu cu
O 4->
E CU
to s-
1 "3
c cn
0 -r-
2: o
X3
^
(O
v~
cu
(0
to
O
r
(O
cu
o
to
ID
E
10
S
cu
-o
a
cu
E
r
fT3
CT>
r-
E
3
t|«
E
s-
cu
1
4^>
c
o
f~
(/)
OT
c
r
2J
o
,_«
,_
o
to
+J
o
QJ
t^«
UJ
K
s
to
>v
cu
r
r
tO
4J
CU
o
E
CU
a
>r«.
o
c
«J
^_
s~
^
cu
s_
tO
to
^^
(J
cu
(4.
.
cu
s-
CX
UJ
1 ^
X E
T3 O
C CX
CU
CX fO
a.
«£ CO
r
E
r- CO
CM J=
=«= h-
*
*
-------
DRAFT *-~
DO NOT QUOTE OR C1T
32
0
*"*
QJ
.Q
to
4J
3
-Q *
r t/1 4e
S~ QJ O
+J P '<-
4-> ra S-
«=C P ro
CO C
* QJ
to XI O
-P QJ tO
O P
QJ -r- QJ
4- C to
4- m ZD
LU
C i
-C S- ra
P QJ O
r »-> C_>
ra (/>
OJ ra >j
re LU >
ra
r~- C XJ
rO X3 T- C
1 =£ ra
to E
4- QJ QJ
O S- Q
3
l/l to XI
a> o aj
P CX C
rO X T-
E UJ ra
r ^*
4-> tO 4->
tO QJ t/7
LJJ X> OJ
r~ Qf^
-E X
CDO OJ
0 i- 4J
CX 3
4- S-
4-> . QJ
a 3 x?
QJ CO C
E Z3
cn
x>
T)
4->
to
QJ
CO
i/)
O
to
O
S-
QJ
QJ
P
ro
14-
r~
CO
XI
0
o
4->
QJ
f)
ra
3
>r_
i-
4J
to
I/)
OJ
c
r
» 4
4-
O
i/l
QJ
P
ra
E
P
to
UJ
to
4-> O
U CO
QJ CTi
4- i
4-
UJ
QJ
t/} I**""*
i- r-.
QJ CTi
X)
"=I-
i/i
t/i un
QJ r>~
(j CTI
X i
UJ
o
* CO
* cn
fc
_|, <
CL) I"**"-
^>_ f*~»»
CTI
-P
O
2:
LO
X> CTi
S-
ra
X>
C 0
-p CTl
CO r
4
* 0
V- CO
* CT>
4-J I
CJ
s:
t/i p**-
XJ CTi
S- r-
ra
XI
C LO
ra r**^
p CTI
CO r
d -~~"'
O tO
' <- c
4-> -^ O
rO i/l -r-
r-~ "r"- r~
3 Q; r-
r '^"
o -P 2:
to
0
QJ
4-
4-
UJ
-C
^_
ra
QJ
zc
,
^j-
o
LO
o
CO
CTl
,«_
o
CM
^o
CM
a>
CM
^jf-
«
p^"
OO
r
>^
4_>
r
f~~*
E ro
O 4->
s_ s_
4- 0
s:
C~ ^j
4_3 r
ra -i-
QJ rO
Q a
QJ X)
1- QJ
3 tO
1 * (Q
rO QJ
£ S-
OJ U
s- c
a. HH
CM
r .
r
f^^
.
CO -
r
O
^j-
T~*
CM
,
00
o
(^O
1
CO
*>o
1
ro
CO
1 * X . "^ *
0
CM
OO
CM
OO
.
CM
h-
oo
*~*^
to
C
4-> O
S- T-
QJ r
"T^ *f
s:
X) ^->
QJ
4-> QJ
ra to
> rO
rO QJ
s- to
Cn *i^
dn f ^
<£
CD
4- C
0 3
_J
to
^> XI
ra c
Q rO
CM
^3-
O
LO
o
LO
«3-
LO
co
^jO
CO
*
vo
CO
vo
> *y
CM
r~~
CO
r»
CO
r
r
^"
^ **
(/>
C
o
*r
n
r
I
^"
t^> v^
o
to
t- N^
OJ O
.a ra
E -P
3 4->
2= <
xj cj
QJ -r-
t/) 4->
ra ^o
dJ g
s- JT
U P
c to
-i <
an
oo
)>*
oo
r
CM
5;^-
CM
CM
CTi
OO
i
oo
r
CM
^j-
CM
CM
00
O
OO
;. . -s
o
o
o
OJ
LO
00
OJ
to
rO - »
OJ to
tO XJ
r- C
Q ro
to
2» 3
S- O
O -C
4-J \
rO *
S-
r- C
Q. QJ
to S-
OJ XI
Oi i
f
s- ^:
OJ O
3=
0 C
1 T-
X ^
^M*
0
oo
^-f'
^ »»
U3
LO
«^j"
^-*
**-*s
p1"^.
CO
N *
^-^
r
O
oo
» -*
i s.
v£»
ID
*s^
^^
^ s.
J»v^
CO
s^^"
^ »
CT»
*^"
VjQ
KH^"
-'*
*^*V
O
««WH>
o; co
O OJ
i tO
C (O
O QJ
S- tO
-C T-
c_> o
CTl
«* CM
CM LO
CO CO
OO r
OO r-
CM LO
LO 00
OO r
CT"
cj- CM
CM LO
CO 00
00 r
00 ^~
CM LO
LO OO
OO i
VD OO
OJ CM
4->
O
c
OJ
S-
ra
to
c
o
4_>
(O
CD
r-
e
3
4-
E
v>
QJ
4_>
1
^^
S_
O
01
Si
4J
O
»i
S-
4^
I/) CO
0) C
S- itJ
r*
QJ CX
r*>
C
i 0
1^ 4J
2 ra
P
to c
P QJ
S- E
0 OJ
Q-r
E CX
*~ -r-
E
3 QJ
QJ 4->
r fQ
O 4->
s- to
4->
01 QJ r
>> CX (O
QJ C
r 4J -r
r 4-> S-
O
Q,) *i
O QJ QJ
C to -C
QJ ra 4->
XJ QJ
r- S- C
O CJ *""*
c c
*f* "r~ ^3
(U
>s r *^"
i r- 4-
&* «p (
rTJ 2 O
QJ QJ
>> to ex
QJ to
QJ 4->
i- ra to
ra S- ra
t/1 >> XJ
4-> 4-> QJ
U T- >
QJ r- QJ
4- T- !-
4- 4-> £
QJ 3 U
ra
i. 4->
OJ ro QJ
J= JC JD
40 4J
O r
XJ i
« OJ T
4-> E S
C 3
3 to to
O to c
U rO O
r~
QJ tO 4->
0 T- ra
C 4J
QJ P -r-
r~~ *i^ £
ro T-
> "r
QJ P
S- QJ to
a» ex E c
c
r"
3
0
r
r"
0
4-
to
.!_)
O
OJ
4-
4-
LU
*
0
4-> tO
C X) to
r- S- to
O ra T-
CXXI E
C QJ
rO ra
4-> 4->
t/) t/1 -C
i- ra
t- 4->
to aj
r- XJ XI
-C C C
t rr> ro
* *
*
c
o
r
4-»
rO
M
r~
S-
3
M
i
3
to
QJ
XI
S-
QJ
to
c
O
O
4->
3
O
_£T
4-> V.
r-*
^
C
o
!
4->
0
QJ
r-^
O
i_
Q.
XI
C
ra
E
QJ
XJ
X)
QJ
c:
r
ra
4.
4->
to
QJ
i.
QJ
*"""** £~ * "*
UJ -M UJ
X tn X
i ., .f
XI XJ
c = c
OJ 4-> QJ
CX QJ Q.
a. E cx
^C e^
4->
" O «
LO C OO
m= ~fe
to
O XJ O
r- S_ !-
i- ro 1-
rO XI ra
C C C
OJ ro OJ
u P a
CO CO CO
*-^ ~ * *
4*
*
*
*
-------
DRAFT**" ~~~
DO NOT QUOTE OR Cl
33
o
4-'
0.1
p
ro
4-> trj
3 CU
XJ 4->
p~ 05
4-> 00
ej' -^j
QJ
1/1 4->
+-) T
O C
cu ZD
u r
uj S-
cu
.,,,., 4Z 4~>
"".iV.'J^'t* W>
r ro
n3 LU
O
co a: cu
C|*
cu cj 4-;
p- Cl
.Q S- C
ro CJ -r-
1 >
T3 CU
e^C £
3
14- 10
O O
o_
10 X
4)
rd to
E X
U4 O
(O i-
co
cu
c
Z3
OJ
r
4->
S_
CU
-o
C
~~^
to
rw
o
IO
0
cu
cu
rO
P»
3
oo
-rj
>p«
jy
--t.
o
4J
CU
_f~l
rO
^3
fi
.(
^_
1 *
4-*
cq^
CO
co
0)
r
i
t - 4
Lj
o
'«/> "
' cu
4_>
ra
E
4_>
CO
LlJ
c~
CD
^3
O
o;
4-> O
(J CO
a>
t- r**v
ai en
> r
-0
CO
r
It
a» r*^
^>^ r**+i
CTi
4-> i
O
in
co r^»
"O CTi
S- r-
ra
-a
c o
fO r^
4-> Q"l
OO r-
i- * v i
O
CO
CTi
4-> r
CU
21
r«x
to r~~
a CTI
S- p
ro
-a
c in
f& f***
4-> CTi
00 r
CZ ^^v
o to
r- C
4-* ^ O
ra to -p-
P ! 1
3 a: r-
C. -r-
o 4J s:
Cu rO ' ^
to
4J
a
cu
M-
(^
LU
JC
4«>
fHB
ra
cu
31
CU
t/)
t.
cu
T3
(^Q
*
o
o>
C\J
UD
*
ro
^~
r^«
r«^.
r*^
n
co
CTi
CTi
CM
*
CO
r
*^"
ro
OJ
*
LO
p
r
f^-s.
^J"
ft
ro
ro
r
pM
«
ro
r
' ,- *
to
o
*fcQ
,
LO
o
p
«^J~
CTi
^O
^J"
,^-J.
r^<
ro
r
>,.
4«5
r-
r«>
£ fO
o +->
S- $-
(f. o
s:
to
-C >)
4-> r
ra *P~
CU rO
Q Q
cu -o
s_ ai
3 to
4-> ra
ro CU
E S-
cu o
S- C
a_ t-i
r--
.
^-
CM
O
!
CM
IO
CO
CO
CTi
CO
r
in
co
CO
co
CO
CO
CM
CO
. -
r"
in
p
p
in
P
CM
O
CM
r .
co
*~-^
to
» c
4-> 0
i- -P-
ro r
CU P
~r" «p
SI
CU
4-> CU
ra to
> ro
rO O>
s- to
cn-p-
CT)Q
. ^ /
r^
»
ro
r^*
co
IO
^J-
r
^"
^^
I/)
C.
o
r
f~~
r
^g"
M s* -*
o
to
i- ^
CU 0
o rO
E 4->
3 4->
2: <
-a o
CU -p-
tO 4J
rO rO
CU £
L. r^~
0 4->
C CO
I 1 <£
p«^
CM
in
CO
CM
^-
O
o
co
r
r*^
in
CO
ID
**J"
CO
o
*j-
UD
f^^.
ro
^ ^ 'f
*$
^f
«cj~
^*
CO
o
p
CM
in
CO
cu
to
ro --^^
a> to
to -o
t- C
Q rO
to
>, 3
S- 0
O J=
4J H-
ro '
i-
P- C
a. cu
CO i-
ai -a
a: .
r
Sh. _C^
cu o
o c
_J T-
^_^
f^x
pMt
o
^
*»*~s.
Kj"
0
o^
*^-^
*-~v
^>o
"Ct"
^D
x*%
fx*
CVJ
C\J
r~m
v« ^
*^-«s.
Lf>
^O
o^
^-**
*^"-^
0
I
CO
v» '
*-«^
f*x.
CO
«~^
t- " * ^
*^~+*
r*"
VO
s*-^
^-*x
p^.
VO
,^^
^J-
IO
p^
^^*
s~*
m
CO
CO
*
*
,-^
CO
"O
c
(0
3
O
c~*
!>s H""
i- -
0
4-> to
rO E
i- 0
Q. a.
to E
cu >>
a: oo
(J CU
p- tO
C ra
o cu
S- to
r~ ip
O Q
CO ^J-
CO CO
r*. CM
O
o
E
to oo
i_
CU CU
J^ 4J
0 4->
E QJ
oo t-
I ro
C CD
O T-
Z. C_3
p
~te
0)
t.
to
o
p-
s_
ro
C
CU
o
to
c
o
r
t/)
r-
E
0)
TJ
E
ro
E
CU
TD
"X3
cu
c
p-
rO
4«)
to
O)
s_
c
3
CU
-C
r ^*
a
cu
tr
3
r
U
C
p-
4J
0
CU
s-
ra
to
c
o
"r"
4-*
t&
OT
,p_
£
(4«
E
cu
+->
1
^1*
s-
0
^:
to
CTi
C
3*
o
r
o
M-
to
4_>
O
cu
t^B
UJ
*
10
>^
cu
I
p
ra
4->
cu
o
c
cu
"X3
r-
o ^.
>%
,
S-
03
a>
>J
cu
S.
rO
to
4J
0
cu
M-
s-
a>
ShH
CU
c~
4->
O
\
4-1
C
13
o
o
CU
o
c
cu
p
ro
~^
UJ CU
S-
X Q.
P~
T*3 40
C C
CU -p-
Q. 0
<: a.
C ra
p
to
CM -P-
to
T3 *p
C JT
ro H-
*
*
-------
34
DRAFT ^ ~
DO NOT QUOTE OR Cll
o
-p
QJ
pi
n3
-P CO
3 QJ
X) -P
r rt3
S- -P
-P C/)
P
«=t T3
CJ
* -P
tO !
-p c:
O 13
QJ
<4- C.
^ 1 1
QJ ^J
i QJ
JO to C
ra t-
i QJ
> QJ
"T3 i
< 3
LO
<+- 0
o a.
X
CO IJJ
CU
-P CO
ra QJ
E U
r- r-
P X
to O
UJ
S-
to 3
QJ 4-
S- r
rO 3
3 00
cr
oo
4j
to
rO
QJ
_J
Jj
*
o
T*-
s_
ro
C
QJ
CJ
OO
QJ
CO
-D
r
ro
o
^>^
>
ro
QJ
a:
r>
T3
c
E
QJ
Q
-a
QJ
i
a
s_
-p
to
CU
a:
QJ
JC
p
i_
CU
T3
C
~^
to
r
0
to
O
QJ
CU
ro
"+-
r
OO
-a
u
o
-p
a>
r
fl
rO
-P
n
r
S-
-P
P
to
cn
OJ
c
r~
» H
^^
v o-
co
QJ
P
03
.,
-P
to
UJ
to
P O
U CO
QJ cn
H- r-
'[
UJ
QJ
to r--.
$» p""**
QJ CT>
> r
«=C
CO
to uD
cu r-^
O CTs
X r
UJ
0
CO
* en
* r
1C
*
p r-*
QJ r*.
s: en
\ *
o
2:
LD
"O r**«
s- cn
03 i
-o
C
03
-P O
cn
; '£"-,°J'V''XV-<
* 0
* CO
* cn
P i
a;
s:
p^.
to r-»
"o cn
S- p
03
a
ro r*-«
-p cn
OO i
£Z -* *
o to
r- C
-P ^ O
rO to T-
r ! r
3 i"V i
Q. !-
O -P S
Q- rO-
to
4_)
O
CU
l^_
*V"
UJ
^[
-p
,«.
a
CO
ID
CO
r*"
r^«
o
0
*.
0
cn
CM
ft
O
i
O
t"*-
n
03
r
CT>
C7i
rv
O
r*
MD
CO
OJ
r
r
CO
r
i
in
CO
""f-siv » w
CO
«^(-
CO
^J"
CO
CTi
CM
cn
cn
^j-
P-^,
ro
P .
±?
.,_
I"
£ ^
O -P
S- S-
M- 0
irt
JC >,
-P r
ra -r-
QJ ra
O Q
QJ -a
s- cu
3 to
P ro
rO QJ
E i-
QJ 0
S- C
Q. H-l
ID
.
CO
CO
f_~
CM
*t
r
CM
CM
f^
CM
^O
O
CO
CO
o
co
CO
CM
* ' ^*'* *V
p-^
CO
co
.
CTi
e^-
cn
^^
CO
^*.
to
-p o
5- -r-
ra i
QJ r
n: -r-
s:
tD--'
cu
P OJ
rO to
> rO
rO QJ
S- to
cn-r-
CT> r~)
rO
CD
M- C
O 3
-J
to
^> "XD
ra C
Q ro
LD
CO
cn
co
cn
*
co
cn
LD
ID
to
LO
vo
CO
t«Q
y*t'X* -C*
.«."-- V- V^
*^J"
*
CM
UD
CM
lO
.
CM
r ~
*
*3"
^
*****
t/1
C
r-
r .
r-v.
r
SI
*+ *^ '
0
c. \/
QJ O
JO 03
E -P
3 -P
z. <
T3 O
QJ -r-
CO +J
fO rO
0) E
S- JC
a -P
c to
i < «c
r>>«.
ID
CM
CM
CM
CO
CO
CM
CO
CM
ID
CM
r^.
CM
co
CO
co
co
CO
p*^
JPO .-.»
^v,ri/»
,.
LD
ID
CM
CO
co
to
rO ^ *
cu to
to -o
r- C
Q rO
to
>> 3
S- 0
O -C
-p t
i-
r- C
CX CU
to S~
QJ XJ
o; ,
.f
s- ^:
a> o
3:
o c
( s
o
,
,-J.
*s ^
^^-*
LT>
CO
LO
* '
^^
^_J_
r
VjQ
'*»--'
***
O
r
^J-
*« **
^-^,
VO
CO
LO
*^w*»
X"^x
LO
r .
V£3
******
* -^.
r~-s.
CO
* *i^* ' *
^ *
o
* ff
*-«s
f
N^.^
^ ^.
r
'i***
<*N
LO
ro
CO
-
*
K
^^
to
T3
rO
to
3
O
-C
£_ s ^
o
P to
ra E
i- 0
Q. Q.
to E
QJ >,
C£ OO
o cu
r- tO
C rO
o cu
SL to
JC -
o o
CM
<£> CO
CO «3-
tO O
I-*. <
^t" r~~
to CO
CO CM
^f* 1
0 -P
E CU
oo s-
1 ro
C CT>
O -r-
2C CJ
t3 ' "
0)
-P
O
r-
Sto* *
-P I/I
to c
CU ra
i. 1
O.
cu
^^ c
o
r«- » QJ ro
OJ CX C
r r""
i -P CD
ra rO T-
-P JC S-
+J 0
OJ
U > CU
C QJ -C
cu to -P
o ra
r- QJ C
0 S- -i-
c: o
r- C T3
H*or-^- 1 -aM- ^r* *-jC^
>} 'r-
-0 i r- H-
QJ i. t -r
T7 rO <- CJ
3 OJ 36 OJ
r- >, Q.
o to to
C QJ QJ
t- S- -P to
ra rO ro
P S-
O t/) ~O
C +-> >, QJ
0 -P >
QJ CU -f- QJ
i tf^. i *i~~
03 M- -r- JC
QJ -P U
tO 3 ra
C S-
O QJ -P QJ
r- JC ra XI
P *P *^"
«3 O -P i
en i
r- - -0 v-
E -P 0) £.
3 C E
U- 3 3 CO
O to C
E r-
to cu -p
t. CU to
cn a. E c
c o
r- +J CO -r-
3: c -a to
O T- i- I/)
r-~ O rO '^
r 0.-O E
O C QJ
<+- rO ro
-P 4-J
to to to ro
P T- JC
O S- -P
QJ to QJ
H -r T3 T3
M- JC C C
UJ I _O (O
* ₯ *
* *
*
- ^
*
C
O
r-
-P
rO
N
r
i.
3
^
3
to
QJ
"O
to
ra
01
QJ
3
r
t(_
1-
o
cr
o
r
4J
ft5
>
S-
QJ
to
C
O
CJ
-P
^3
O
JC
" ~ ^*ju- ' "*!.
r~
^
C
0
r-
P
0
QJ
r-j
0
S-
cx
-a
c
rO
E
QJ
-o
-a
QJ
C
r-
03
S-
+J
co
QJ
i-
QJ
^~* C^~ f~^
UJ -P UJ
x to x
-o -o
c = c
QJ -P QJ
a. QJ a.
Q.S: ex
<^ c^
-M
** O **
LD 2: CO
-ft: :-tte
to
o -o o
- s- ,-
i- ro S-
CT3 "O n3
c c c
QJ ro QJ
O -P U
OO oo OO
^
*
k
*
-------
DRAFT
MOT QUOTE OR CH
0)
S-
-------
i O
to
00
LU
O
X
UJ
o
cr>
UU O co
Z _J O
O < D
g DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR
-X' C
-D
0
D
C
C
00
D.
«X5
:D
00
o
3:
««
-------
DRAFT
no NOT QUOTE OR CITE
SS30X3
-------
38
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
O
co
<
CD co
to
csi
no
CO
co
Ot
LU
O
Q_
to
=)
CO
LU
O
«c
QC
LU
IT)
SS30X3 lN30M3d
-------
39
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
CO
h-o:
co<
^uj
On i
<
li-
CS
z
O
h-
>
cc
O
O O
10
CO
CD
CO
co
E
bo
LU
h-
o g
CVJ LU
Q
Z
UJ
a.
CO
ID
CO
QC
to =3
I O
X-
ej-
CM
s.
§>
IO
O
CO
LO
o
co
O
CM
SS30X3 lN30U3d
-------
40
DRAFT
NOT QUOTE OR CITE
CO
sg
£5
<=E
ii i O
CO
UJ
O1
! °
LU en
co _
zo s
OO "
IX
o
h-
LT)
CD
ir>
CM
CD
CD
CD
CD
SS30X3 !N30N3d
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
I I I I I II
20 40 60 80
CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL S02 EMISSIONS, percent
Figure 7. Percentile distribution of S02 emissions from U.S.
power plants ranked by size.
-------
42
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
5000
CO
B
a
cc
Ul
20 40 60 BO
CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL S02 EMISSIONS, percent
Figure 8. Percentile distribution of S02 emissions from U.S.
industrial boilers ranked by capacity.
-------
43
«>o
DRAFT
niinrc
1800
1600
1400
ur
< 1200
o
z
v>
<
Ul
cc
cj
O
cc
Ul
a
cc
o
z
>
H
<
13
U
co"
cc
Ul
_J
o
03
1000
800
600
400
200
J I I 1 I I I I
200
400 600
PLANT SIZE, megawatts
800
t:
I
LU*
C9
tc
ui
1000
Figure 9. Relationship of age and number of U.S. utility
boilers to plant size.
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
44
APPENDIX A
Pertinent Observations On
Atmospheric Reactions and Air Quality
-------
DRAFT
00 NOT QUOTE OR CITE1
45
C
o
40
U tO
to CC
C
3
-C 1
D- -0
T3 (J
C
c
o e
r I/)
t/} -r
V. S_ C
3 OJ to
<*~ > -C
i C 0
3 O
Ti
<1)
JC
4-1 0
D O
<1J 4-1
S- O
Q 0.
1 ai
4-1
rt)
s_
OJ
X)
o
y
X
X
t
X
4->
in
E
M OJ
u .c:
aj u
S- 0
i 4-1
a o
c .c
»-i D-
^-1
to
10
u.
X
X
X
in
r
lO U1
C i
o to
E 4J
ttO
C_)
OJ
to
s^.
01
-o
o
2:
X
c in
O -r-
i<
>» t/>
t- tO
(a <*-
X
ai
O 0
c s-
o t
4_> ^,
lO 3
1- >4-
-a i
>> =3
x. ^
U)
o
ai
o
o
s-
CL
c
o
ITJ
o
-------
c
o
u
J3
tt)
*
c -o *
TH 0> +
T3 VI
DC 4> +-*
c fx, rt
CO V) <4H
63 rH
00 3
CO
I/I
C
0
H
in
(/i
rH
g£
U4
C
H
o>
00
c
e
C 0.
rt -o
O. O X
0
IH in -
0) <-. C
3 0
O -H V-
a. in 2
Ul <4~
I-H E ;
IH £i or
rt
0)
*
* *
C. r-
oi :
1
00 CO
rH -H
CD >
flj O
xs:
i «
0 tH *
rl cU 73
"JT Q> QJ
>- T
d) 4)
O
C -H
O .-H
U rH
H
C 21
i-l O
O y^i
a to
H £
X
O DO
H 3.
Q * '
1) / >
«Me
141-1 DO
3 a
CO * '
rH
rt
I)
X
4J
H
U
c
0
H
a
%
J
47
-*-*«-
>O to i-H
rS rH
-<- + -V
*« -<-
"K" df Of
n \o *t
tM (S|
->-».->
4* 4f dP
rH M3 rH
N to in
-c ^ i
- c * c
«* C£. t t (
c e oi
C - C rH
o >- o - On)
"*«* ^ (N ^nO CN O vO ^O
o i %o r~ o to>oo
INlNtSI (SI fsl rH rH (SI
- - -
Z t^- in m to ^ r~« to
to 01 o ^T r^ ^3" o r^»
ttoto o r^ i-isDr%
TtLncn o -H r-,inr~
QlOlCTl C7> Cl ClCTiOl
j<: 4-. j< w M. *j
oj vi nj in ns in
O rt n> o) Q) cd
a. j o, j a. _1
C
c c
C 0
o u
CJ
" C QJ
> C 0 rH
tJ o *j rt
rl > bo S
o pj c cd
*J E <1>
J-t S -M Q
rt 0) -H
X 2 ^
H^ Hr
in i^-
o
O O
o o
rH - r-<
4- H>-
4P 4P
O O
O 0
1 1 f 4
g g
to en
00 \C 00 NO
r-,M rHM
S -* 3= S
O O 0 O
t t i-H rH r- 1
XX XX
M !H M fn
4> 4> rrj
+J tkO
O C
*H e
rt 5
U co
+»
w>
cj
X
^*
3
DRAFT H
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
* *
rH O *O "^t"
Hv -* -V -4-
<#° <*> dp dp
M tn to
> . ._
dP dP dP JF
f*t Cl *Q fM
rH
-rt HH
^ *
X . » (j*
O ' » *O r 1 V)
H 13 C r-t 'H
I/} t^" t ffNJ Vf W-l W) Qi hM I/* f^,,^
OO O-» OO ** ^f ^0 f*^ o^ ^ cjj to
"*-* 0-- M-HrO
toto 21|-O * -p
rttncj t/ico I/IPS t/>
curoo com oj(u ca
0. _J tX -J Q. K-J £X ^J
c
t/)
CJ VI ' t X
H -H ^-4
2£ r 1 t t "
O OJ
+^ rt o* x
rt C (JO 3
f-t -H O 3
*J T3 -.H rH
«* e: x -H
O r-4 QJ ^T
-
nj
(H
W K
(0 0)
cu u
-------
c
o
t,^
(M
0)
*
C -0 «
H i) *
-j in
cu c tu
tlC 4) 4->
C P- CO
to tn tn
X 3 -H
U t/j 3
CO
to
C
o
H
t/1
tn
'E
c
H
00
e
M
C
*
* *
C !-.
CO 3
0) 14-
"*" 3
c'
co :> "
-< *
£ CO T3
"" £ -S
1> CU
P tn
a»
u
tn
C
T)
CU CO
t-l O
Q. "H
a
to
3
0
3 «
o/ a>
+J <
t=
o
u
X
l-t
C_>
cu to
M C
< 0
f-
to
3 «-<
0 O
3
oo to
H e
4-> O
C -H
O r-(
U l-H
H
P" ?"
H O
CU ^-v
"O fO
H e
x <
O M
H ;a
C ^"^
CD s-.
rt^S
U^ \.
* i bo
3 ^3.
CO
01
>
X
H
O
c
o
H
u
3
d*»
-v
t/l
to
-4~
LO
-4-
dP
O
/ >
.-H
r-H
h <
K
,0
<J
i-* LO r^
«^j- o r*^
i-t C4 M
2: r-< tO
CN \D Cs)
CTJ LT) -^j-
CTi Lrt f 1
LO \O Is--
^ V
rt vi
CU J
o
"
M
Ifl
r-t
3
35
48
4- <- -4- -4-
dP dP 4* ' d<-
C\ ^O M ^
^ ---*-+-*
dP of1 dP df*
ch r- oo o
r-t ^H C>J
A
&
<- i /-^ i^^v Q
< < < X
U cj U rt
rv", [y| gy* ,_4
<^ 3 ^c
« ' \ > V_^ S_/
r * (O O^ t-H K> C7^ O *O *O OT CTi *3"
to ^1" LO tO ^3" LO to *& l/> O O f<
ooo ooo ooo ooo
<£l_A(N c z. a x r-i
Z Q O C
cc
in C
/a cu
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
*> #> <*P
^r m r*
t » P-^
-^- -^ -+
vD Tf ^t1
***<"
V
cw
* C *
a
o u o
CS LO
0
->-*->-
dP df dP
«N -*t l-H
l-^- / v / \
0 JZ X
l-H CO (O
0 4J CO
V-J s ' v ^
NO LO ^f rH r 1 i 1 t^ ^4* NO
ooo ooo ooo
ooo ooo ooo
2=22 Z'iSci zSS
'
{-^toa> TI-^J-M o>t~-cN
L^^J-^J. CT^r^vO \O\DvO
muoo r,^^
SSS; SSS; SSS
X
H j:
O CJ K>
" CO
o - s
CJ 0)
\^ H
cu J Zl
^> 4-1 4-1
4) Ctf
1-1 tn
X 3 3t
j<: c
O 3 t-i
o o a
a S u-
-------
4J
c
o
u
*
C T3 *
H C
H
6
fl
C
H
(U
OO
c
cd
X
CJ
4_)
c o>
cd T3
r- 1 U-4 «H
O- O X
o
f-l (/) -H
O C Q
? O
O -' (H
Cu t/1 3
C/> M-4
X-H rH
?-» ui on
cd
"
*
* *
C h
td 3
_CD <4-l
""" 3
00 t/5
c
»H -rt
cd >
O O
X X
1 *
-a ti *
H cd T3
3E «> <0
> -a
CD
^4
a>
t/i
J3
c
t3
1 (U
0 4-J
!-. 0
a. -H
o
t/1
3
o
3 n)
be
H
u
rt /^^
cu in
tH C
< 0
H
10
3 O
C -H
O r-*
U -<
H
c s:
H ^*
U /-N
"OM
rt g
x -5.
O bo
rt 3.
o --^
<0 r~ .
*->ro
rt £
J^
X
<->
H
U
C
o
H
U
cd
u
3
-V CD
00
dp C
OO cd
-H X
U
O
z
cu
«- 00
c
o-p nj
<* X
-! O
D
Z
(D CD
bo bo
C C
ca a)
X .C
U U
O 0
z: z
* CU
bo
*» C
«t CO
-I -C
o
z
^
^4
c
o ^
bo ^^
cu a
l-c U
£ *~"
\D \O \D
O O O O O O
O O O O O O
c5 ^ ?
<| r-( < Tt -< CN tN
2 CM Z o% r^ ^H t>~ 01
^O ^O *O ^O *O ^
CJl Oi CTt O Ol 01 Cl
CD O
p O
O w
>-(
" O
a c
C ca
a M
^H [ii
V
t-> c
o ca
a. to
DRAFT "^
HO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
*- ->--»--* ->
dP dP ' dp dP dT
o o» Oi
rH »~<
CD CU
*- be -*~ -*- GO
c c
dP CO dP dP Cd
o ,c o o ,e
ro U «O tN U
O O
Z Z
-+- «- -^ -> -<"
dP dP dP dP dP
oo vO /-N /->
r-H -H r-H t 1
rH JS * Cd «
t-i O ^ CJ U
V ' ' ' V 1 * . N *
%or--<7i r *c^i t^^- i.o^j'vo ^o\o
oooo vo-o Lor> ooo oo
rjfO*O »Ot^ OO OOO OO
CN
^O x0to K>r-toj i^)rN
c- ( r-1 i-H »-H t ( K1CN rH i 1 rH i-Hi-M
-?tLnr-( a^^-t r^o oorsio\ tod
\o^ot^ vor-- \or^- LDr^^ \o ^o
CTl C7> CTi O"i O^ Oi CTt CTt O"! C7l CTl O^
rX 4-* -X +-* -^ 4-» ^
td i/i cu w oj ui as
ax cd fl* rt o nj a>
a* «J cu «j a. j a.
o
« tn
o c C 0)
X -0 0) ~. t* cd
>-< « cd 3c tn «
* *-H x o cd
ai u O -J a.
i*
cd
H «
u v
4) tf)
Cu cd
w u
-------
/"x
C
o
»_/
(N
-.0 3 -H
CD "4H X
S "-> O
3 .H
so to a
c
cO >
CD O
1 *
U M *
H CO T3
3E cu cu CD
C cc
CD CD tw
.
oX3
to
0
Tt
r-t
CO
U
vO \O
O 0
0 O
< o
I-H Tj
r-H CX)
CN CJi
01 01
rH rH
^
a
0.
o
00
11}
H
a
C
rt
U3
tn
C
O
>H
H
T3
C
O
U
CO
O
H
be
O
rH
0
S
CU
e
x
CD
O
C
cu
3
t4_i
C
H
X
rH
3
C
3
CD
cfl
cO
CD
X
FH
CD
1/1 fr
"3- to
O O «
X
O o cO
a
\o
IN
X
< c
vO ^ O
c.
CD
r^
CO
tn
P.
to o E
rd
oo C7» tn
cu
tn
3
cO
U
O
B
cO
CD
X
cu
CD
f=
*
50
r-4
,-H
cd
tm
c
H
CO
X
p 1
rt
H
O
0)
Ou
tn
0)
O
x
DO
X
T)
CU
3
tn
cO
CD
B
in
4J
cO
(4-4
rH
3
8
TJ
C
CD
a.
in
3
tn
tn
CD
rH
4-1
H
O
CD
to
CD
X
c
H
tn
C
0
.rH
to
t/1
a>
f3
H
0
V}
v^i
O
rH
CO
0
OO
3
rH
rH
a
4-1
CU
E
(U
21
cO
X
H
3
'/)
0)
H
-M
H
(J
C
. -H
4
fl
»
4J
U
T)
CU
IH
P.
4->
O
B
tn
O
cu
a
o
s:
4t
CO
0)
*~!
jj
,^
CU
"5
o
c
r-*
(/)
QJ
DO
C
5
U
x
tn
rH
1
X
o
o
H
CD
X
p.
tn
O
E
4-1
CO
in
CO
rH
CO
in
cu
3
rH
CO
q
cO
rO
3
XI
3
in
<4H
o
o
to
CD
tn
C
H
T3
CU
tn
3
tn
o
3
3
tr
CU
tn
CD
X
4-1
o
[ >
p
q
CD
o
tS
r-^
CO
tn
cO
CD
CO
q
CO
4-1
rH
O
a,
o
CD
B
g
0
rH
(4-1
tn
r_|
CD
CD
CU
T3
r-*
X
o
H
T)
3
f*-H
3
CO
*
*
*
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
-------
₯
11
DRAFT
00 NOT QUOTE OR CITE
51
o
CO
UJ
UJ
O
X
o
DC.
=>
iL.
V.
3
D>
9oi 'SNOISSIW3 1VRNNV
-------
DRAFT !
DO NOT QUOTE OR CIT|
.wBh^ML .
O
CO
to
LU
fsi
O
tx>
2!
ce
O
z
D-
<
a:
CD
o
LU
o
uu
o
3:
z
o
I
<£
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR Cll|
UJ
o
o
t/o
O
CO
O
I
<
cc
«c
>
o
oc
a.
<
cc
o
o
UJ
o
c
r-
u.
-------
53
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
-------
cc
UJ
-J
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
54
.-.... ...-.-.-... .-.-..-..... : :./:.. .-.v.-..,-:.v-.
.r
o « i a'
o cz
o
I
S
c? K^fe'r
n-
QJ
-------
55
DRAFT
QUOTE OR CITE
APPENDIX B
Categorization of Locales in
Each Power Region
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
56
Table 1: SMSA's of at Least 2 Million Population Cumulated by
Electric Power Region
Electric Power Region Population (000)
1. NPCC - MACC
Boston 3375
Mew York 11529
Philadelphia 4818
Pittsburgh 2401
Total 22123
2. ECAR
Cleveland 2064
Detroit 4200
Total 6264
3. SERC
Baltimore 2071
Washington 2861
Total 4932
4. SWPP - ERCOT
Houston 2000
5. MAIN
Chicago 6979
St. Louis 2363
Total . 9342
6,. MARC
None
7. WSCC
Los Angeles - Long Beach 7032
San Francisco - Oakland 3110
Total . 10142
Grand Total ' 54803
-------
Table 2:
57
Cities of at Least 100,000 Population (but not in
SMSA of 2 Million) Cumulated by Electric Power Region
«ff
Up ACT
OR CITE
Electric Power Region
1. NPCC - MAAC
Albany
All entown
Bridgeport
Buffalo
Elizabeth
Erie
Hartford
New Haven
Patterson
Providence
Rochester
Scranton
Syracuse
Vlaterbury
Total
2. ECAR
Akron
Canton.
Cincinnatti
Columbus
Dayton
Evansville
Flint
Ft. Wayne
Gary
Grand Rapids
Hammond
Indianapolis
Lansing
Lexington
Louisville
Parma
South Bend
Toledo
Warren
Ycunastown
Total
Population (000)
116
no
157
463
113
129
158
138
150
180
300
105
202
110
2431
275
110
453
540
244
139
193
178
175
200
108
745
132
108
361
100
126
384
180
140
4891
-------
5fi
DRAFT
DO HOT QUOTE OR CITE
Table 2: (continued)
Electric Power Region
3. SERC
Atlanta
Brimingham
Chattanooga
Charlotte, N.C.
Columbia, S.C.
Columbus, Ga.
Ft. Lauderdale
Greensboro
Hampton
Hialcah, Fla.
Hollywood
Huntsville
Jackson
Jacksonville
Knoxville
Macon
Memphis
Miami
Mobile
Montgomery
Nashville
Norfolk
Portsmouth
Raleigh
Richmond
St. Petersburg
Savannah
Tampa
Va. Beach
Winston-Sal em
Newport News
Total
Population (000)
497
301
119
241
114
114
140
144
121
102
107
138
154
529
175
122
624
335
190
133
448
308
111
122
250
216
118
278
172
133
138
6834
-------
59
DRAFT
00 NOT QUOTE OR CITE
Table 2 (continued)
Electric Power Region
SWPP - ERGOT
Baton Rouge
Little Rock
New Orleans
Okla. City
Shreveport
Tulsa
Wichita
Kansas City
Topeka
Austin
Amarillo
Beaumont
Corpus Cristi
Dallas
El Paso
Fort Worth
Lubbock
San Antorn'o
Total
MAIN
Independence
Kansas City
Madison
Milwaukee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Total
MARCA
Cedar Rapids
Des Moines
Duluth
Lincoln
Minneapolis
Omaha
St. Paul
Total
Population (000)
166
132
593
366
182
332
277
168
125
252
127
116
205
844
322
393
149
654
5403
112
507
173
717
127
147
120
1903
111
201
101
150
434
347
310
1654
-------
60
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
Table 2: (continued)
Electric Power Region
7. WSCC
Albuquerque
Colorado Springs
Denver
Freemont
Fresno
Huntington Beach
Las Vegas
' Portland
Riverside
Sacramento
Salt Lake City
San Bernadino
San Diego
San Jose
Santa Ana
Seattle
Spokane
Stockton
Tacoma
Tucson
Phoenix
Total
Population (000)
244
135
515
101
166
116
126
383
140
254
176
104
700
446
157
531
171
108
155
263
582
5573
Grand Total
28589
-------
61
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
APPENDIX C
Demographaic Data and Procedure for
Calculating Adverse Health Effects
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CI
Q_
*l
<. O
oo
OO (J
re
(U S-
O14^
S- IT
re -C
_J er
T3 r-
C it
TO I,
A IS>
C i/1
ro
£1 4->
1- 0
"~i e~
«J w_
IT)
O
0
0
O CM
o cn
r CM
LO
en
ID
r
00
o
CM
en
n
<£>
in
ro
CM
LD
t.O
jQ
S-
^3 4-
C/-
CU
cn
i- CL>
re (-'
» t.
<
- o
C
4-> U
re a>
r> U-/
ex
0 <»-
ex o
re o
M O
°£.
a>
r~
«u
in
CM
r~-
CT1
M
t/1
re
4J
u~>
o
CU
4->
C
3
=5
CM
re
s_
3
o:
,
ro
4->
0
H-
C
o
en
x> in
r^^ co r^ CM r*v o
cri cn »* <3- ro to
"~
cn co cn rn LD co
co oo o 10 cn vo
in 10 CM cn co in
cn cn o f*^ cn t
"3- CM CM CO CM
«t
*
CJ "
ZL TO
* O . *> >
i- ><: . .
>- -c - * c re
_; C * « C _l
-I-T dre oocyi i
CJCQ- . oJ- cs« rro-
«ruj -i-o *. . Q:
Z.S' -C^ < Irt ««l/» QTOUJ^^TO
(U'TJ -u i in "ocji/i -3 1.1
i r= 3: -r- i-i -r- st -f- ^ o i ~~ -o
o o; z: o OQ.
o
B
ID
IO
>JD
ID
IO
CO
r«.
CO
co
t/>
3
o
cn
p-
4->
c
o
o
cn
c:
i
C ^"^
i- in
re cu
co re
K 4J
i/i
O
CJ
01
CM
O
^O
CO
ID
CO
"3-
CM
0
CM
1/1
CU
4^
re
4J
1/1
OO
*3-
r
re
4->
o
CM
to
4->
in
TO
{ »
CO
^
^^
-^1
4-»
U
CO
fNJ
^Xl
a.
a.
CM
CM
CU
_a
re
c
o
cr
cu
i_
i
-cr
o
4->
O
4->
n?
i/>
CU
t_
4-*
OJ
CU
JC
l(
o
cr
cu
cn
O in
r in
4J <0
L)
TO >-
i. i-
4J re
jQ S-
3 4J
l/) -i
0
>) 1-
|r- CM CO «*- m ^
-------
63
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
Table 2: Electric Power Region Population (000) Distribution by Age Source:
Statistical Abstract of the U.S. 1972, Table: 36., p. 31
Electric Power Region
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
MPCC - MAAC
ECAR
MAIN
SERC
MARCA
S'.JPF - ERGOT
l-JSCC.
Grand Total
0-13*
12569
8119
5373
10076
2561
5879
8916
53493
14-20
6100
4000
2607
5112
1279
2953
4464
26492
21-64
25676
14790
10102
19143
4466
10634
17311
102122
65+
5244
2775
2128
3632
1089
2102
3045
20015
21 +
30920
17565
12230
22775
5555
12736
20356
122137
TOTAL
49589
29683
20209
37963
9395
21568
33736
202143
*A baseline prevalence of .6 acute lower respiratory disorders each year is assumed
based on reports from the National Center for Health Statistics.
-------
fi* nn Nnr DRAfT
D0 NOT QUOTF no rirr
you it UK CITE
Table 3: Average Deaths Per Day by Electric Power Region and City Size
Electric Power Region
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
JPCC - MAAc
ECAR
MAIN
SERC
MARCA
S'.JPP - ERCOT
',-ISCC
Total
Total
1339
772
525
987
244
539
776
5182
Rural Small Urban
263
244
125
369
98
151
130
1380
413
238
109
314
103
203
284
1664
Larger Urban Large S'1S/
56
127
49
175
43
135
128
723
597
163
243
128
--
50
233
1414
Source: Statistical Abstract of U.S. 1972. Table 79, p. 58.
-------
65
DRAFT
Qi/orc OR
Studies Upon Which Dose-Response
Estimates were Based
A. Mortality ' __.
1. Lindeberg, W. Air Pollution in Norway. III. Correlations Between
Air Pollutant Concentrations and Death Rates in Oslo. Published by
the Smoke Damage Council, Oslo, Norway. 1968.
2. Martin, A.E. and W. Bradley. Mortality, Fog and Atmospheric
Pollution. Hon. Bull. Min. Health (London). 19: 56-59, 1960.
3. Lawther, P. J. Compliance with the Clean Air Act: Medical Aspects.
J. Inst. Fuels (London). 36_: 341-344, 1963.
4. Glasser, M., and L. Greenburg. Air Pollution Mortality and Weather.
New York City 1960-1964. (Presented at the Epidemiology Section of
the Annual Meeting of the American Public Health Association,
Philadelphia, November 11, 1969.
5. Brasser, L. J., P. E. Ooosting, and 0. von Zuilen. Sulfur Dioxide-
To What Level is it Acceptable? Research Institute for Public
Health Engineering. Delft, Netherlands. Report G-300. July 1967.
(Originally published in Dutch, September 1966).
6. Watanabe, H. and F. Kaneko. Excess Death Study of Air Pollution
In: Preceedings of the Second International Clean Air Congress.
(Englund, H.M. and W. T. Beery (eds.) New York, Academic Press,
1971. p. 199-200.
7. Nose, Yoshikatsu and Yoshimitsu Nose. Air Pollution and Respira-
tory Diseases. Part IV. Relationship Between Properties of Air
Pollution and Obstructive Pulmonary Diseases in Several Cities in
Yamaguchi Prefective. J. Jap. Soc. Air Pollut. 5_(1): 130, 1970.
Proceedings of the Japan Society of Air Pollution, llth. Annual
-------
66
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
Meeting, 1970). .
8. Buechley, R. W., Riggan, W.B., V. Hasselblad, and J. B. Van Bruggen.
SOo, Levels and Perturbations in Mortality. Arch. Environ. Hlth.,
27(3): 134, 1973.
3. Aggravation of Heart and Lung Disease in the Elderly
1. Carnow, B. W. , R. M. Senior, R. Karsh, S. Wesler, and L. V. Avioli.
The Role of Air Pollution in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.
Amer. Med. Assoc. 21_4_(5): 894-899. November 2, 1970.
2. Goldberg, H.E., J.F. Finklea, J.H. Farmer, A. A. Cohen, F.B. Benscn and
G.J. Love. Frequency and Severity of Cardiopulmonary Symptoms in Adult
. Panels: 1970-1971 New York Studies. Health.
Consequences of Air Pollution: A Report _from the CHE_SS. .Program ^.A^lCLr.
1971. EPA #650/1-74-004. pp. 5-85. June 1974.
C. Aggravation of Asthma
1. French, J.G. Internal Memorandum on 1971-1972 CHESS Studies of
Aggravation of Asthma.
2. Sugita, 0., M. Shishido, E. Mino, S. Kenji, M. Kobayashi , C. Suzuki,
N. Sukegawa, K. Saruta, and M. Watanabe. The Correlation Between
Respiratory Disease Symptoms in Children and Air Pollution. Report No.
1 - A questionnaire Health Survey. Taiki Osen Kenkyu 5_(1):134, 1970.
3. Finklea, J. F., J. H. Farmer, G. J. Love, D. C. Calafiore and G. W.
Sovocool . Aggravation of Asthma by Air Pollutants: 1970-1971 New
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
York Studies. Health Consequences of Air Pollutions
A Report from the CHESS Program, 1970 - 1971. EPA #650/1-74-004,
page 5-71, June 1974.
4. Finklea, J. F., D. C. Calafiore, C. J. Nelson, W. B. Riggan and
C. B. Hayes. Aggravation of Asthma by Air Pollutants: 1971
Salt Lake Basin Studies. Health Consequences
of Air Pollution: A Report from the CHESS Program, 1970-1971.
EPA # 650/1-74-004, page 2-75, June 1974.
D. Excess Acute Lov;er Respiratory Disease in Children
1. Nelson, W. C., J. F. Finklea, D. E. House, D. C. Calafiore, M. B.
Hertz and D. H. Swanson. Frequency of Acute Lower Respiratory
Disease in Children: Retrospective Survey of Salt Lake Basin
Communities: 1967-1970. Health Consequences
of Air Pollution: A Report from the CHESS Program, 1970-1971.
EPA #650/1-74-004, page 2-55, June 1974.
2. Finklea, J. F., D. I. Hammer, D. E. House, C. R. Sharp, W. C. Nelson
and G. R. Lov.rimore. Frequency of Acute Lower Respiratory Disease
in Children: Retrospective Survey of Five Rocky Mountain Communities,
Health Consequences of Air Pollution: A Report
from the CHESS Program, 1970-1971. EPA #650/1-74-004, page 3-35,
June 1974.
3. Douglas, J.W.B. and R. E. Waller. Air Pollution and Respiratory
Infection in Children. Brit. J. Prev. Soc. Hed. 20:1-8, 1966.
-------
60
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
4. Lunn, J. E., J. Knowelden, and A. J. Handyside. Patterns of
Respiratory Illness in Sheffield Infant School Children. Brit. J.
Prev. Soc. Med. 21_:7-16, 1967.
5. Love, G. J., A. A. Cohen, J. F. Finklea, J. G. French, G. R. Lowrimore,
W. C. Nelson and P. B. Ramsey. Prospective Surveys of Acute Respiratory
Disease in Volunteer Families: 1970-1971 New York Studies.
Health Consequences of Air Pollutio'n: _A Report from the
CHESS Program, 1970-1971. EPA #650/1-74-004, page 5-49, June 1974.
6. Hammer, D. I. Frequency of Acute Lower Respiratory Disease in Two
Southeastern Communities, 1968-1971. EPA intramural report, March 1974.
E. Excess Chronic Respiratory Disease
Burn, J. L. and J. Pemberton. Air Pollution, Bronchitis, and Lung
Cancer in Salford. Int. J. Air Water Pollut. 7:15, 1963.
Goldberg, H., J. F. Finklea, C. J. Nelson, W. B. Stern, R. S. Chapman^
D. H. Swanson, and A. A. Cohen. Prevalence of Chronic Respiratory
Symptoms in Adults: 1970 Survey of New York Communities.
Health Consequences of Air Pollution: A Report fro?"
the CHESS Program, 1970-1971. EPA #650/1-74-004, June 1974.
House, D. E..J. F. Finklea, C. M. Shy, D. C. Calafiroe, W. B. Riggan,
J. W. Southwick and L. J. 01 sen. Prevalence of Chronic Respiratory
Disease Symptoms in Adults: 1970 Survey of Salt Lake Basin
Communities. Health Consequences of Air Pollution:
A Report from the CHESS Program, 1970-1971. EPA #650/1-74-004, June 1974.
-------
DRAFT
00 WOT QUOTE OR CITE
4. Hayes, C. G., D. I. Hammer, C. M. Shy, V. Hasselblad, C. R. Sharp,
J. P. Creason and K. E. McClain. Prevalence of Chronic Respiratory
Disease Symptoms in Adults: 1970 Survey of Rocky Mountain Communities.
Health Consequences of Air Pollution: A Report
from the CHESS Program, 1970-1971. EPA #650/1-74-004, June 1974.
5. Yashizo, T. Air Pollution and Chronic Bronchitis. Osaka Univ. Med. J.
20:10-12, December 1968.
6. House, D. E. Preliminary Report on Prevalence of Chronic Respiratory
Disease Symptoms in Adults: 1971 Survey of Four New Jersey
Communities. EPA intramural report, May 1973.
7. Galke, W. and House, D. E. Prevalence of Chronic Respiratory
Disease Symptoms in Adults: 1971-1972 Survey of Two Southeastern
United States Communities. EPA intramural report, February 1974.
8. Galke, W. and House, D. E. Prevalence of Chronic Respiratory Disease
Symptoms in New York Adults - 1972. EPA intramural report, February 1974.
-------
DRAFT
00 NOT QUOTE OR CITE
70
Method of Obtaining Excess Mortality and Morbidity
I. Mortality
1. Obtain annual death rate for each power region (NPCC-MACC 10.0, SWPP-
ERCOT 9.0, WSCC 8.5, all others 9.5) from Statistical Abstract of the
U. S. 1972, Table 79, page 58.
2. Obtain daily death rate by dividing by 365.
3. Get expected deaths per day (Table 6) by multiplying by Total Population
(Table 1).
4. Calculate percent excess deaths per day by accumulating percent excess
deaths for each of 365 days by application of Larsen log normal model
on the geometric mean, standard geometric deviation and mortality dose-
response function.
5. Obtain excess deaths per year by multiplying percent excess deaths by the
expected number of deaths per day.
II. Aggravation of Chronic Heart or Lung Disease
1. Obtain population at risk by multiplying the older population (Age 65+)
by the prevalence of chronic heart or lung disease of 27. (Statistical
Abstract of the U. S. 1972, Table 121, page 1, page 15).
2. Calculate percent excess aggravation per year by accumulating percent
excess aggravation per day for each of 365 days by application of
Larsen log normal model, geometric mean, standard geometric deviation,
and the heart or lung dose-response function.
3. Obtain excess days of aggravated chronic heart or lung disease per
year by multiplying percent excess days by the average number of
aggravated days per day per person of .20 (i.e., one would experience
aggravation of chronic symptoms every fifth day, without air pollution).
III. Asthma
1. Obtain population at risk by multiplying total population by the asthma
prevalence rate of .03 for all ages, (DHEW, Vital and Health Statistics,
Series 10, Number 84, September 1973, Prevalence of Selected Chronic
Respiratory Conditions U. S. 1970, Table 3, page 17.)
2. Calculate percent excess asthma attacks per year by accumulating
percent excess attacks for each of 365 days by application of Larsen
log normal model on geometric mean, standard geometric deviation, and
the asthma dose-response function.
3. Obtain excess asthmatic attacks per year by multiplying percent
excess attacks by the average number of asthmatic attacks per day
per asthmatic (.02, or about 7 per year).
-------
71 DRAFT
00 NOT QUOTE OR CITE
IV. Lower Respiratory Disease (LRD),»io ChiTdren '
j?
1. Obtain population at risk, namely all children Age 0-13.
2. Calculate percent excess per year by using annualvarithmetic mean and
LRD dose-response function.
3. Obtain excess LRD cases per year by multiplying by annual incidence
rate for influenza and other respiratory conditions of .06 (DHEW,
Vital and Health Statistics, Series 10, Number 88, January 1974,
Acute Conditions-Incidence and Associated Disability U. S. 1971-72,
Table 5, page 16).
V. Chronic Respiratory Disease for Smokers and Nonsmokers
1. Obtain population at risk namely total population Age 21+ of whom 38
percent are current Smokers and 62 percent are current Nonsmokers.
2. Calculate percent excess per year by using annual arithmetic mean
and CRD dose-response functions.
3. Obtain excess ORD per year by multiplying appropriate figures by CRD
prevalence rate of .02 for nonsmokers and .10 for smokers (Prevalence
of Selected Chronic Respiratory Conditions 1970, Archives of
Environmental Health, Vol. 27, September 1973, Table 5, page 140).
-------
72 DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
APPENDIX D
Measurement of SOn and SCL
(hLSCL) in Emissions from Power Plants
-------
UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
SUBJECT. Measurement of S02 and $03
from Power Plants
'TO:
in Emissions DATE: July 2, 1974
J. S. Nader
Dr. A. P. Altshuller
There is no good method at present to measure SO^ emissions from
combustion sources. The present method is an extractive technique
which raises questions on how well SC^ and SO^ are separated in the
process of sampling and to what extent S09 is converted to SO^. SSMR
is approaching the problem of 503 measurement by an in-situ spectroscopic
technique uhich is under study with a contractor. Hopefully, this will
provide a real time continuous measurement of SOj without the problems
associated with extractive sampling.
Emission data reported in the literature is quite general but
offers some idea of the range of values. Oil-fired sources have SO?
emissions ranging from 85% to 100% of the sulfur content of the oil (1).
Calculations on material balance suggest S02 emissions as 98% of the
sulfur content of the fuel with 1% emitted as SO^ and 1% in the fly ash.
SO^ emission data show an extreme range from 0.25 to 11.5% of the sulfur
content of the fuel; a normal range of 0.25% to 2.75%; and a high number
of values in the 1 to 1.25% range. The emission concentrations do not
appear to be a function of the percent of the sulfur in the oil only.
For sulfur content in oil ranging from 1 to 5%, there is a wide scatter
of SO^j concentration data for emissions ranging from 6 to 40 ppm.
Coal-fired sources have S02 emissions ranging from 80 to 100% of
the coal sulfur content (2). 563 emission data range from 1 to 5% of
the coal sulfur content. Some detailed data are given on S02 and SO^
emissions as a function of boiler operating conditions (3). The SOj/
S02 ratio for essentially the same coal sulfur content can vary from
0.5% to 5% (a factor of 10) depending on the firing operation.
References
1. W. S. Smith, "Atmospheric Emissions from Fuel Oil Combustion."
PHS. Publ. No. 999-AP-2, Nov. 1962.
2. W. S. Smith and C. W. Gruber, "Atmospheric Emissions from Coal
Combustion." PHS Publ. No. 999-AP-24, April 1966.
3. S. T. Cuffe and R. W. Gerstle, "Emissions from Coal-Fired Power
Plants: A Comprehensive Summary." PUS Publ. No. 999-AP-55, 1967.
EPA Form 13206 (11-71)
-------
7. DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
APPENDIX E
Sulfur Oxide Emissions and Public Health
Impacts Under Alternate Emission Scenarios
-------
75
Table E.I. Sulfur Oxide Emissions for Power Plants, Other Emissions Sources,
and Total by Electric Power Region for 1970 Base Year
Electric Power Region
NPCC-MAAC
ECAR
SERC
SWPP-ERCOT
MAIN
MARCA
WSCC
Total
SOx Emissions (Million Tons)
Power Plant Non-Power Plant
3.8
6.4
4.0
0.1
3.0
0.5
0.3
Total
18.1
3.0
2.8
1.7
1.2
1.3
0.4
4.5
6.8
9.2
5.7
1.3
4.3
0.9
4.8
14.9
33.0
Table E.2. Estimated Future Power Plant Sulfur Oxide Emissions (Million
Tons/Year) By Electric Power Region for Scenario 1
National Electric Reliability Council Estimate:
Continuation of Historical Growth
Electric
Power
Region
NPCC-MAAC
ECAR
SERC
SWPP-ERCOT
MAIN
MARCA
WSCC
Total
Scenario #1, Standards Not Met
Year 75
3.2
7.9
4.9
1.0
3.1
0.7
0.6
21.4
Year 77
3.3
8.7
5.4
1.3
3.4
0.9
0.8
23.8
Year 80
3.4
10.0
6.5
2.2
3.7
1.2
1.1
28.1
Scenario #2. Standards Not Met
Year 75
1.3
3.0
3.2
0.8
2.3
0.7
0.4
11.7
Year 77
1.0
2.3
2.2
0.4
1.0
0.4
0.5
7.8
Year 80
1.0
2.3
2.2
0.4
1.0
0.4
0.5
7.8
DRAFT
-------
76
Olr
\ C tO
CO -i- O
c c c_>
O -r-
I
O to CU
r- CU (J
o; c
c (13
i OVi
SI C r-
~_ -T- CU
-o a;
10 3
C. r- 4)
O O S-
r- C O
co i-H s:
en
r- «-O
E co c
LU O (C
CO
cu t-
*^J fO +J
r- E S_
X CU O
O (J O.
i-^a
3 S-
M- O i
r 4 -i
3 O
co c
O 3:
-t-> T- O
E cn_J
fO CU
a.
1. 0)
£- cu en
01 '31. (13
X O CU
o a. s-
a. o
o c
CU T- > 4
S. S_
3 -t-> 0)
4-> O +->
3 ai n3
u_ r a:
LU
TD 4-
> O
-M CO
E'~> U
e- S_ 0)
CM
CU
X)
S- O Ti
(TJ *r TS
C 4-> -r-
O) (T3 S-
O > 3
/I S- <+_
CU r
CO 3
E CO
O CU
c_j o
o
o
O 'I-
1- T3 O
XJ NJ *r
r -r- +->
XI i- 03
CO <4- S-
i CU
CO C
cu o
Q CJ
O
-C
*t-r- E
3 0
O -i-
r- C 4->
n3 -r- N
C* 4-^ T
O) fO S-
CO S- lt-
0) <
CO 3
E CO
O CU
0 Q
O
z
-o
c
(O
Co C E
O O
O -r- -r-
r- 4J 4->
t. -
LO
p^
00
l-
cu r-^
>-
LO
00
m r>-
cu r~-
->
LO
1
O
00
S-
CU l»v
>-
LO
U
U C
M L. O
CJ (U -r-
CU S CT
- O CU
1 1 1 <-» rV
CM CO CO i CO f^ 00
O O O CM O O O
CO CT> LO r *& f""^ r-x
O O .O r O O O
**}" C3 1 V.O C^ *cf ^^* t^^
*
Or- O O O O O
CO CTi LO i OO CTl O
O O O CM O O r-
^ o 10 r «cj- oo r~-
O i O O O O
^" r ^ CT» *5j" t^^ LO
O i O O O O O
^0 r^ r*x f cr> r*** co
i LO CM CM i O O
00 CM t£> r LO i"^ r»
CM CO CO r CM O O
LO *tf- O O"» (O ^ LO
CM LO ^t- O CM O O
i o oo r 10 en o
CM r-» oo CM e\j o r
VO CO *J- i O 00 Is*
CM r^
CJ «£ Q: Q_ i r Q: CJ
Q- CJ LU 2 rf ff. to
zr LU co to s s: 3
oo
LO
LO
^.
LO
^.
o
*>'
0
LO
UD
.
"*
LO*
r
o
f^l
r
IO
f%^
.
CT>
r~
1
o
CM
^
^
03
4J
o
J
00 "or
OR
-------
TT
i- O
+J
>- O
\ OJ
4-
C <4-
O t-U
H-
CT>
c c e
O T- 3
f- C O>
--- I/) OJ
d) Q.
~ 3 oo
LU 'o 2
C O
0) i i _j
X i/l 0)
O O +J
3 (S> C
03
O Ol
, ro
LU CQ c:
-------
&
^
M >>
"O
4->
i.
o
tZ
ns
c m
O)
*
n> o cn
c
o
cn
cu
as
J* 0 O CM , CM CM in
Jvj *"
oo o o oo co CM in
S «
CO O O IO CO CM CO
s ">
00 O O CM CM «a- t-»
i cn
CM
co c5 co oo co H in
CM r- f~.
CO
'
CO CO O 1O CO CM CO
CM r in
CM
r cn . CM r»» CM in
r^ «3- co r CM in
f r CM r
O U3 CM CO CO CM in
!** cn cn r 10 in
CO r CO CM
h^ r^* ** io r*N CM co
«j- i co f cn in
«» CM t CM CM
CO Cn r CM 1*"- *tf" P^
O co ' ^ cn en
CO CM t CM CM
~
cn cn cn oo ^j" r ^i"
co CM . co i co r~
«t o: a. « o;
in
co
CM
vo
cn
CO
cn
CM
CO
CO
CO
0
CM
O
O
CO
S
,_
r^
CO
^
VO
VO
CO
co
r
CO
CM
«*
CO
CO
m
f^
^
CO
CM
-CM
CO
CM
CM
cn
VO
CO
^s.
rf
vo
cn
CM
CO
CO
CM
CM
TO
CM
O
CM
f3
4J
O
1
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
CU
i.
3
*/)
o
a.
QJ X
I- UJ
3
M (/)
1C CU
S- X
a. o
TD
CU 4- S-
3 O 3
c <*-
o ra
0 *
I/I CU
UJ LU i
CU +-> fO
r- C +J
JD CU 3
I cn-r-
-o s-
Z> 4J
w >,
CU +->
m -
ra
-u
o
t
o1"'
u
t/o
0
°JT
gen
CU
o
oo
o
^_
M
coo
o
u
CO
o
t
o r~-
5
0>
.
o
CO
en
r-
en
*""
1C
en
o
CO
en
f^
en
in
en
o
CO
en
f^
f^
en
in
en
o
CO
en
i
r
en
in
i
en
0 >- 0
. n W r*--
C-3 >- i
C
CU
o:
O O O O i ** i
*» O O O CM CO r
~ "
CO O O O CM CO CM
^- O O F~- r VO CM
r- i C»>
CO O O O CM 00 CO
i «3- CM
co co o vo ro ro co
r CO CM
^- r*- ^ o r** ^ i
IO r i CO f
*~
in r-. t-» o r-- co
, in r r CM
r~ ^^ r
oo (O i o en co CM
i en ^ ^- co
CM i i
in i f-^ r** r^* vo CM
i in r r CM m
r CM r
sj- en en o 00 oo ro
«a- co in ^ ID CM
CM CM . CM
o CM CM vo r^ ro n
i-~. o en oo en CM
oo ro r CM
10 l-~ «T l"~ "=f "^ ^
en I oo oo CM
i CM i *
0 0
<£ (_>
« ct:
» uu
i i <:
o a: «-> o- z o o
o S oc o. eg o
3E. UJ V* l/l £ iZ 3
m
f CM
to en
r r
0 O
CM in
in in
r- in
o vo
CM VD
CM
CM to
r in
CM CM
A
to
en
«d- O
«* in
"*
o in
in
in
o to
vo 10
CO
i CM
O i
co «d-
cn
J_J 4-J
t/1 f>
UJ "--
\o
ert
in
c*)
O
s
VO
CO
fo
CO
O
F- CU
c
i- -
CU
i -o
o ai
a. T)
3
O i
r- O
s- c
+J t-
o
CU 4->
i O
UJ C
i_ at
o i-
o «
LU 4->
i n
Q- -Q
d.
"X. Vt
OO M
CU
i. C
O CU
<4- +J
CU
I/) f
IO O
E
-------
in
2.
\n <*-
x oo
LU
O
>t- 4J
LfJ O
o>
LU Ul r
11 -O
(U 4-> IT)
r (O +J
JD E =
ro -f- ^1
I +>
in s-
o
oo
O
in
r«.
en
S
co
co
CM
00
r en o r«*
<* r co ?»
oo i
o
en
o m to co oo *
ro en o tn oo in
, O r- r
o>
u
I/)
in
t~~
en
o
oo
en
o
en
o
en
o
CO
r in
* en
«* CO 00 CM
to co in oo
O r CM i
CM
OO CM CM
in CM r-~
CM
to
00
in
co
ro
vo
on
VO
10
o
CM
oo
00
CM
00
in
p*.
en
o
CO
in
CM
CM
en
O
<* 10
r*~> ro
o o
oo en
i O
CM
CM I r
r- » 00
p"* r** 00
. 00 i
ro CO
CO
en r
u
1/1
c
o> en
en
o <
3 i
CO
r^ oo
O
s s
o *
i CM
oo r-.
en co
r . in
r^
oo
CM
co in
f» CM
r U>
t CM
oo r>-
CM m
oo oo
en *3-
CM co
2 S
5 S
CM in
in t
en 00
co ^
ID CO
in r
i£> in
en CM
n in
in CM
o
r»- r^
CM in
in oo
ro «*
ro ro
m
CO
t-.
CM
in
co
cS.
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
i
CM-
oo
f»
r^.
10
co
en
CM
en
oo
to
m
o
ro
in
o
ro
en
O
ro
en
o
ro
en
cvi
CO 10
en en
3- in
co
en
10
en
tf in
CO
ro
ro
ro
ro
ro
ro
10 oo in
en co <
P-. 1 r
U
to
cu s- o
1/1 r: r^
fO C C^
O
r
ro
oo
CM
O
ro
O
in
en
CM
10
en
co
in
o «s-
r^. to
ro r
CM CM
OO CM
* in
00 ro
t en ro
vo vo r
co ro CM
rv 00 CM
ro in oo
CM CM r
in
r
10
en
o
«d- oo
r- 00
ro
to
c
o
01
Ol
o:
r- CO
CM r
^ i
ro r
CO
o
CM
ro in vo
p~. CM co
O r- i
O.
3
f
=: c_> o
« c: o
in
*r
«r
CM
in r-».
«* «s-
«3- oo
10 CM
ro r
10
co
r-.
CM
CM
Ol
< CO
CM CO
00
-------
MTC
00 NOT QUOTE OR CITE
.
*
to
o
d.
X
UJ
n3
E <"
^"* QJ
*-* TD
V) *"
J
to
in !_
U Vi-
la X r
VTJ LJ 3
C VH
t- 0 0
+J 4->
c to
o a) «a>
0 -U f
as X3
in E rt
UJ +J 3
in .O
O) U) T-
r i-
jQ I * -4-J
ro c t->
I 3
in O
O) -C
CO 1
c
"f-"
tn
.*£
rt3
*-*
<
O
r"
«o
vO
0
to
C)
1.
ni
ccn
0)
L)
C)
i.
ffj
c:oo
01
u
I/I
^'
L.
rtl p..
C
Ci
VI
I/I
o
CO
cn
f^-
en
in
m
<-
00
cn
cn
r-^
_^^
CTi
O
00
cn
E
r
in
cn
r
O
CO
cn
f
r
cn
i
u->
i
cn
11 i- O
* /bo O"*
La"
c
0
cn
QJ
ce
cn cn vo C *~" p1" cn
r Cn CO r r Cn f
t^ CO r- r-
cn cn in o co ^ cn
r-» o in r co h-. r
^^ r-* CO r r
r cn r** r co ^ r^
<* i vo csj co r-» csj
CO i LO r r
cn cn in r~~ r vo vo
^^ r" in r***. r in co
^- r CO r r r
i o i*» i co in in
«3- co vo csj co csj «j-
00 i in i i f
i o co co m in
^~ t^ oo co in csj ^^
GO f 00 < r i
vo vo cn o in r-^ i
co !-* o r cn cn r
CSJ 00 CSJ CO CO r
r
t-^. in o O co r- - cn
i oo co r *a- r-» i
in cn in co vo i
r"»
CSJ »3- i r 1 i r~
oo r~ in csj in r^ csj
oo O r*. in i*^ r
i i
^^ VO CO ^^ CO VO VO
i co co r-- «a- in co
in i in co vo i i
r r~
vo in o i ^* in in
in vn i^* csj i^» csj **
cn csj co in co r
f~ ^*"
r~~ CO vo oo co in in
in r^^ co co i csj *±
csj csj o oo cn r r
Csl i i
i co en r~- co in vo
CSJ r O ^ 1^* CSJ CO
*J- i CSJ ro CD i i
CO r r r
0 0
< cc
-- UJ
o a: vj o. z v_> o
v_> «£ ct o. « ct: vJ
^- a ^ ^ g g s
in vo
vo csj
cn in
vo o
1^ O
O in
"""
O cn
VO r
i r«-
« cn
vo vo
0 VO
r-» cn
^~
o 'co
CSJ O
CSJ i
r r
vo oo
r-» in
CSJ
in o
r-. o
vo in
CO
i- cn
vo f
'si" r^.
«cf
vo cn
r*-* vo
CO VO
CO
in i
in cn
cn i
«^~
to i/i
t? CJ
CM
VO
in
^~
CM
CO
CO
CO
CSJ
VO
cn
r~~
oo
CSJ
CO
CSJ
co
CSJ
CO
in
l-s
^
CO
CO
in
in
in
vo
a-
P*«.
in
Csl
cn
in
vo
cn
in
<3~
^
IO
O
h-
Ol
O)
01
rs
u
HI
-------
-o
ro X
O
+J
i. i-
,
n3 CU
O i
J3
in nj
in -t->
0) ^
ID U -Q
X '-
LU LU S-
+J
OJ l»- -t-"
r O
o
oo
o
si
.
cn
'
0
co
i
rv
rv
cr>
i
LO
Ol
r~~
0
00
Ol
'
rv
i .
Ol
«
in
rv
cn
1
O
CO
I
rv.
cn
1
LO
rv.
cn
'
O
CO
rv
cn
r
LO
cn
o
CO
cn
1
rv
rv.
cn
*~~
in
rv
cn
"
i~ 0
lO P*"«.
O CTi
1
CM «* -r** Ch r-*. co to
i CM *fr co * oo in
CZ t_> 0- ^ ^
oo cn
r- LO
o cn
CO r
OO i
in i/i
O QJ
rv
I
LD
*>
CO
in
en
00
M
ir>
r^*.
ID
*^~
M
in
o
cn
C3
en
o
in
ID
1
It
in
ID
cn
in
r~~
cn
CM
ID
#t
ID
*~
cn
cn
CM
rv
IV.
O
en-
o
CM
^.
f~»
cn
cn
^.
f
.in
cn"
O
CM
VD
ID
O
CM
ID
lO
^*
a-
o
^
o
CM
cn
o
in
in
CM
§8
CO
OJ
OJ
ID
cn
ft
cn
r
(13
O
1
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
0)
01
-o
OJ
U
C
cn
r- O>
-O
>, ro
i- +J
O)
> >>
Oi (O
t. g
t3 E
3
C in
O
t- CO
C7)J=
Ol +J
o:
c
S- -r-
O O)
O- TO
3
i O
LU C
1 O)
O S-
o to
C£
LU 4->
I -3
D. J3
Q.
3 in
oo m <
01
i- C
o o>
4- +->
Ol
in i
eu a.
-u s
g o
E o
43 s-
m o
LU <4-
*
-------
CD
t.
3
in
o
Q.
X
LO
Ol
a -a
C -i-
«3 X
O
4->
!_ S-
4-
O
ro a>
Q r
-a .n
HI CO ro
3
LO
CTi
* L
o
00
en
1
f^
2
LO
en
0
oo
cr>
[>
en
^~
LO
en
s- 0
cj en
5
y>
5J
£
oo en r^ en O vo oo
LO o CM oo r^ oo LO
CM r LO i CM i
«
"~
CM !? p** cn r^. oo oo
r CM ^f OO r LO LO
Tl" i LO CM 1 r
*>
r
oo en i o i oo to
LO CO LO VO r LO VO
LO i O CM r r
ft ft
r r~
CM en r^ LO o i en
i co ^~ en r^ i r^»
^ r~- LO r ^~ r
ft
co LO t o r-. i oo
LO LO LO LO i CM CT»
LO i O CM OO r
r- r-
00 OO LO O O r OO
LO p^ r^« LO ^* CM en
LO ? en CM oo i
"~ "~
r~ co CM en CM LO o
in p^ LD n en oo ttj-
LO CO CM LO CO CM r
CM t
p^. oo CM en en oo oo
O r-. LO CO LO LO LO
LO r CO LO LO r i
CO CM r
oo * oo r
«T CM i i CM
«a- o oo o i i co
<* CM LO LO LO CM en
en o O en LO oo r
LO OO CM i CM
r co en r-» oo LO LO
CM i O r- P- CM CO
^- r CM CO O " I
CO r- r r
0 0
5 a:
T "f <
O OC O Q_ Z C_> O
Cu LJ UJ 3
-------
A3
CO
tt)
*
a
c
0>
o-o
c VI r
nj
ac m cu
UJ r
1- .0
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
JH
r
CO
c
TJ
C
C H3 OO
i CO QJ
3 S-
--s O 3
Q JC oo
oc: h- o
_i o.
> C X
r- LU
CU
T3 00 CO 00
QJ IO 00 Ol
3 cu QJ -a
C 00 iH- i.
U S- O 3
O v»-
r- +> oo i
03 OJ 3
UJ i- -U OO
r- fO
0) CX E O
r 00 -i +J
-Q OJ +>
ra o£ oo a»
-
a) -M IB
2 C 4J
o co 3
OJ
+->
S-
4->
00
oj_ a)
O CQ
O
'io
c
cu
U
oo
o
t_
ro
c cn
ai
U
oo
o
s_
03
C CO
OJ
o
oo
o
i_
fT3
c: r-~
0)
u
oo
0
00
cn
r-^
r>^
cr>
1
LO
en
o
oo
cn
r^
cn
LO
cn
O
CO
cn
r^
i
cn
LO
r-.
en
O
oo
cn
t~x
r»>
cn
r_
10
r^
cn
r
QJ S- O
. oo a r-
ro o cn
C3 >- .
C
o
»r*>
C7>
CU
C£.
O O O O O O O
0 O 0 0 0 0 O
0 O 0 0 O 0 O
0 O C O 0 0 O
c o o o o o o
O O O "el" O O O
O cn o O O O O
O <£> O O CO O O
IO CM 00 O CO O O
r CM CM
o cn o o co o o
CM i
co co cr c co o O
CM OO ^f
co £>
CM i o r-~ r~. CM co
tf- r CM OO O r f
CO r r »
*s
<_> <: cc a. . cc <_)
O- C_> LU 3; KC < fO
;r LU to oo 2: £ 3e
0 0
0 0
0 O
o o
o o
o «*
cn o
cn o
OJ
a> o
1C
CM O
^t-
00 O
o
CM CO
LO r
T
r CO
CM CO
CO U3
«D
4J J->
00 00
rt)
CM
d-
OO
O
LO
U3
cn
LO
^t-
l^s
r»
IO
4_J
o
QJ
O)
IV
T3
U
C
ai a>
I J3
-c >>
en s-
>» 3
t? 00
cu
>
s>
ID C
O TJ
i- CU
a»"a
QJ 3
o; i
<_>
c
t- !-
o o
a. c
t
o
LU +->
I 3
a. xi
a.
3 00
to to
OJ
S_ c
o ai
<+- +->
(U
«s o
S o
Z> S-
00 O
LU 14-
-------
00 NOT QUOTE OR
T~~
as
(T3
S_ 3
0 .0
+J -r-
(O S
1 "t-*
Q,<£
Ul
Q£ I/)
01
F- fl3
c c_>
O "^
1. if- CO
£ 0 I-
<_J 3
l/l t/1
i/) "O O
v) c a.
cu «3 x
oo o vn LU
X 3
li 1 LlJ O t/1
-c tu
CM £. 'ot^
CO _Q X
to i/t i/l O
|_ 0) S-
^_> CU S-
E O v*-
(/) 1 OO
LU C
O 0
4J Z -t->
c
CO V-
e o
-o
'"' o:
+J O
i/i
cu
CO OJ
ra
cu
in
T
a
o
TO
QJ
o
oo
o
l~
CI LO
u
00
Q
C «3-
CU
u
00
o
C (T,
cu
u
0
f
i_
"3
C CM
(U
U
00
O
t_
C f-
a>
oo
C3
CO
cn
^
01
LO
O
CO
cn
^
cn
1
LO
cn
O
CO
CM
cn
f
uo
cn
,_
o
CO
cn
f^
cn
1
ID
cn
O
CO
r^
i*"^
cn
f~
LO
1-^
cn
O
CO
cn
cn
LO
cn
CO S- 0
, l/l 03 h--
in o en
CO >- i
o o o co o o o
CO
o o o cn o o o
ID
O O O CM O O O
O O O CO O CM O
CO
o o o cn o o o
LO
O O O CM O O O
K^
IO CM CM OO OO O O
LO OO I CO CO
O r«. LO cn CO O O
r «* CM LO LO
r_ r 1 CM CM O O
OO LO OO -ef VO
0 Cn CO 00 CM CM 0
O1 VO CM 00 VO
r r*. . on cn O O
CM r- < CM cn O O
1^ O «* CM O O O
'
I-. O «3" CM O O O
1
r^ o cn vo CD . O O
OO r OO LO
«f < O LO I VO O
CM LO VO Cn r i
CM 1 i r
*3- I-- LO . «3" VO CU O
f i oo co cn
CM
OO ^ CM Cn OO O O
f% cn vo ^^ ^o
CM
LO i i o cn O O
VO ID fl t~-
CM
0 0
c 5 S
2 1 ' "^
en |<_>
cn
O CM
"^"*
oo ro
00 CO
O cn
rr LO
CM
ID CM
CM
cn LO
«J- 00
CM r-
oo en
ro LO
oo
CM CM
LO «*
oo
r CM
CM r
CM
CM i
VO VO
o oo
cn p
VO CM
CM VO
i CO
LO
CM cn
VO O
CM
*-> 4->
l/l
oo
CO
cn
LO
CM
LO
CO
r
cn
LO
CM
^"
vo
cn
cn
CM
r-.
oo
oo
r-
cn
oo
cn
oo
ro
OO
OO
00
CM
o
vo
oo
CO
cn
LO
r
cn
vo
CM
^_
>a
l-l
'
cu
i_
cu
sz.
-a
cu
lj
T)
c
cu
&_
10
HI
1
f^.
cn .
JZ^I
jQ
t^JJ
cu
t-
3
o
c?^
c
0) "~
o co
Cu-0
p
QJ4_J
o
UJC
H~ CO
s«
a:
UJ+J
1 -3
3 in
OO Ul
ai
S- C
o cu
i "|- »m
cu
ou'o.
+* E
E o
!-» S-
irt o
*
-------
DRAFT ,
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
O JQ
-U -r-
S-
in
a> 10
ce cu
r- <_}
C
O H-
-O S- O
CU -C
3 O m in
C T3 CU
r- in C !-
4-> in IB 3
c CU in m
O O 3 O
u x o Q.
UJ -C X
CO r- UJ
. M
UJ o m
J3 in CU
CM CU in S- T3
CO r CU tt) -i-
JD +J -ii X
r- l/> V-
in
uj o <
2: 3
4J CO
c t-
4> O O
S "*- +J
cn
"O * *
3 a
O QC
O
cu ai
ca in
cu
I/I
0
tl
to O
4> *""
U
oo
o
t-
cO
F cn
cu
(J
to
i.
^ CO
cu
u
oo
o
'i
c !*-
O)
o
CO
o
CO
cn
i
i*-^
cn
in
i
cn
r
O
CO
cn
i
r
cn
r
LO
cn
o
CO
cn
£
cn
*~
LO
cn
O
CO
cn
cn
r
in
cn
CU J- O
yi *o r*«»
TJ o cn
03 >- r
c
o
' cn
(U
C£
O O O o O O o
o o o o o o o
O O O VO O O O
o o o o o o o
CD O O VO O O O
o o o o o o o
CO
c CM O O «f O O
r CM
r^ «j- VO O OO O O
ro co ro
CO VO LO VO VO 0 O
r-.. o vo O oo O O
'
CO O O
r^ vo
o i in o CM ' o o
r- t~- CM ro vo.
r oO cn r^s ro LO vo
CM r O t^- f^^ CM CO
TJ- r CM CO C> ^" r~
CO r r p
o o
s Qt
"* ^jj
"7 i <
o oe v\j a. z o u
o «* ce o. >-. o: o
CL 0 UJ S <
in m
ro cu
UJ S
o
o
vo
o
VO
o
CO
r.
ro
o
*
CO
"~
VO
co
p
^
CM
CM
CO
cn
CM
cn
in
r
pM
ra
0
h-
cu
u
cu
(J
c
3?
o>
- ou
>, ro
S_ +J
CU
> >>
CU ro
i- E
ro E
-
CU 4->
a:
v. -r-
ai
36 "O
O CU
13
Or-
r- O
s_ c
4-J *i
a
CU 4->
> o
UJ C
l_ cu
O i-
CJ H3
a. jo
D-
3E in
oo in
CU
S- C
o cu
It- -U
a>
m .
cu a.
*-> s-
in o
LLJl*-
*
-------
DRAFT
OR C!TF
r
1/1
eu
in
"3
o
0
CJ
> to
c -a i/i
a c CD
$- ro S-
J= Ul =1
O 3 01
0 0
l/l JT CX
in H- x
o
X in en
UJ SB. rjj
O1 4 ^ -r-
O O X
UJ E O
ro "" "*
00 UJ S- 3
ra _a ro o l<-
ro E >*-
H-~ *r~ ^
in Q
uJ ce o
c: a>
E 1/1 la
-o O) +->
3 in 3
0 -r- J3
Q -r-
4-> S-
O) S- -t-J
CO O <
4-*
to
_'-
Q.
to
QC
O
u'
c to
O)
(J
to
Q
s_
rO uD
C
CJ
o
to
o
S-
r8
(J
to
o
1
s_
s«
at
u
to
o
si
to
c: csj
ID
o
o
ro
C r
OJ
CO
O
CO
01
£
01
1
LT>
01
CD
CO
01
£
01
1
LO
ai
o
CO
01
£
C1
O O O LO O .O O
co
o o o LO o o o
CSJ
O O O LO O O O
o o o LO o ° °
CO
^~
o o o to o o o
CSJ
O O O LO o O O
o o o GO o o o
CO
O CO CSJ LO I O O
CSJ CSJ
LO
01
r
O
CO
01
01
01
'
o
CO
01
>
01
r~~
LO
01
a
CO
01
01
r -
LO
O1
CD S- O
ro O O1
ca >
C
o
en
QJ
to r^ csj LO co o o
r CSJ
O CO W3 LO CO O O
r^ co i LO r^ o o
i CSJ CSJ Csl LO
O1 CO t£> LO P^ O O
co csi i to
o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o
O O O CSJ U3 O O
10 r- csj to to o o
O Oi r^ to o
*3- C71 IO VO O
** 1 [ J
T i o: <_> a. z: cj cj
Q- CJ LU 3 < < t^
_ UJ 1/1 -i.
1
O LO I LO
CO | CO
\
O LD
Csl
O LO ,
0 S
""
^3 LO
o to
o to
CO
1
VO LO
CSJ CSJ
CO LO
LO
CSJ LO
LO CO
CO LO
i Csl
r
LO LO
co
0 0
O 0
10 csj
§LO
LO
CO r
CO VO
csj
* LO
CSJ
CO O
CSJ
CSI
to ui
ro Q
1 1 1 -^
LO
CSJ
LO
LO
CO
r
LO
CSJ
LO
LO
co
f
LO
CO
LO
CO
CO
0
o
o
CO
LO
CO
LO
01
r
co
01
CSJ
CSJ
co
CSJ
CSJ
f
5
o
}~_
tl
QJ
-o
(U
TJ
0
c:
"r~
cu
ro
^^
Jr
l~
C"
Ol
:>. ro
i. 4->
fJJ ro
LU c:
o t-^
f£
UJ *-*
1 ^
ol ~°
C/l CO
OJ
t- C
o t-
(/» O
LU 4-
-K
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
JQ
ro
CO
cu
Ul
(t)
O O
i- l/l
C U5 CU
O TD 5-
i. c rs
JC rt3 U1
o in o
3 a.
W O X
Ul JZ U-l
CU (
-O (J - Ul
aj x cu
3 UJ I/I T3
C i- -r-
r- <4-
.a cc
cj cu
I C- -r
CU J3
E CU rt!
01 Ul <">
o nj 3
3 cy J3
-3 m !-
Ui +J
cu >,<:
CO t.
o
4J
(O
s.
cu
ai
o
ft3 o
C r_
00
o
i_
03
c r-.
u
oo
O
CO
en
r
1
r-.
cn
'
Lf>
en
o
CO
en
r-.
r-
rC
en
o
CO
en
r
en
LD
en
o
oo
en
fv^.
r^
en
uo
f^^.
en
OJ t- O
. Ul «3 f*^
ti o cn
C3 >- r-
c
o
O!
(U
QJ
0 0 O 0 0 O O
o o o o o o o
c o o o o o o
0 O 0 0 0 0 O
o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o
O OO O . O O O O
O CM O O O O O
0 CO 0 0 r- 0 0
i CM
O O O CO O ' O
CM CM
t co en r~- oo in vo
CM i o r*- r-» CM oo
«^- i CM OO O ' r~~
OO r r , i
0 0
«r o
*x £*
" UJ
u a: o CL z: o o
o O
en CD
«*
CO
CM CO
CO U3
IO
4J 4J
Ul Ul
ra _o
0
o
o
0
o
o
o
o
oo
CM
en
00
en
^^
en
^t1
t>
o
t
cu
cu
o
O)
a
u
c:
CD
jez
Dai
ai
> JO
cu +J
en 3
cu
o c
Q_ -r-
o -a
i- cu
s- -o
u 3
u r
cu o
o o
cj c
o:
UJ OJ
i s.
Q_ lt>
a.
3: >->
to 3
jQ
!_
O
<<- 4->
S cu
r-'S.
i-> e
-------
00 NOT QUOTE OR
<0
«er
oo
u
CD
<4- *
<4- i/l
LU (U
Oi in
in X
i TJ O
JD
A3
O 4-
C 3
Ol JQ
E-r-
O) t.
TJ 4J
0
s_
CU3
01
u
co
o
T
IO
c in
o>
u
LO
o
i.
g*
Ol
u
CO
o
z
* CO
c '
Cl>
U
CO
0
^
C CV
O)
IJ
I/}
o
j-
-
s_
o
.C 4->
4-* IO
r U
10 !-
Ol T>
n: c
»4
lO l~-
r in
i r-
CM in
10 in
CM in
CM O
10 10
CM r
01 in
CM in
00 r~
r-. in
TJ-
10 r~
CM in
Ol
in in
01 in
o
O r-
8°
' L
in
TJ- r-.
Tj-
1
TJ- in
o m
in
cor-
TJ-l
cor-
Tj-l
i in
Tjin
Tj-
co m
I Ol
CM r
CO
i Ol
O Ol
TJ-
CM
co 10
io in
Ol
o in
CO CM
Ol
co
r-
CO
r-
CO
r
CM
CM
C
Tj-
CO
in
CO
in
CO
CO
Oi
o
m
O
VO
in
Oi
in
in
m
IO
in
VO
VO
Ol
TJ-
00
o
TJ-
CO
o
o
m
CM
cn
o
CM
in
o
o
CM
.
>,+J 4J 10
M (ft in +J
f IO 03 O
LU 3C 1
ia
1 1
u
o
c-
1
i TJ-
'c>
CMTj-
i O
CO CO
r O
CM LO
O
COTJ-
o
CO CO
r^O
OT)-
TJ- O
CM Tj-
LO O
LO TJ-
LO O
TJ- LO
in o
COTJ-
LO o
ro TJ-
io o
in r-
TJ- LC
Tj- CS
CM
LO r
TJ- LT
Tj- C^
CM
CM
rr
VO C**.
ro rr
OO 10
oo o
OO Tj-
. ,
r~. o
Tl-
1^ 0
co co
U3 O
in
IO
10
"
r*s.
^.
10
«J-
««
IO
n
O
IO
Ol
n
*-.
IO
o
in
01
10
CM
LO
Ol
LO
CM
in
Tj-
cn
ro
«*
Ol
CM
co
.n
r^
^
^ ^»
IO
O r
, +-I +J
IO CIJ O
IO LU 3 1
J
+J
in
CO CO
o
i CO
CM o'
co r-«
CM O
O r
CM r-^
CO Ol
CM O
co r»
cJ o
CM CO
0> CO
CO CO
CSJ O
-
1 f~-
TJ- O
CM i
CO .
"~
O Ol
LO O
'
ro r~
io o
1
p^ ro
« ro
Cfl TJ-
TJ-
r- co
( CO
01 TJ-
Tj-
LO 10
i r«*
CO
ro in
TJ-
CM
01 O
<
O i
CM
Ol 00
.
CO O
'
co in
CO O
r
IO
CM
cn
CM
0
co
r-
co
CM
ro
0
co
o
o
r~
10
CO
r~
CO
TJ-
CO
TJ-
'
cn
lO
o
r~-
o
LC
ro
un
O
u:
m
m
CSJ
ro
co
CO
oo
in
CM
cn
^~
CM
r^
cn
co
CO
U>
O
«-
C31
C
3
_l
r~
-O -U 4-> IO
c ui in -t->
IO lO OJ O
LU 3: i
*->
i.
IO
01
00
oo
00
00
o o
o o
o> o
CM
TJ- O
CO
CO O
VO
Ol O
CO
CO O
CM
TJ- 0
CM
CM
o o
0 0
CM O
TJ-
O TJ-
CO
TJ"
in o
in
CO
CM O
Ol
CM
ro o
o
CO
o
0
o
o
o
o
Ol
CM
TJ-
ro
CO
IO
01
CO
CO
CM
Tj-
CM
CM
o
o
CM
Tf
TJ-
oo
TJ-
LO
in
CO
CM
Ol
CM
CO
o
CO
p
*->!-> lO
^ in in -*->
o 10 01 o
i LU 3 t
^*^
§
o o
0 0
o o
O CM
o o
o o
CO O
CO
IO O
to
CM
OO O
CM
CO
. CM
o
CO
VO O
in
TJ-
l~-~ 0
CO
TJ-
i O
CM
o
CM
VO 0
o
Ol VO
CM i
o
in CM
CO
r^
LO O
LO
LO
Ol O
TJ-
10
o
o
o
CM
0
o
CO
ro
IO
VO
CM
00
CM
ro
CO
o
CO
vO
in
TJ-
r-~
CO
TJ-
CM
,
CM
UD
o
in
Tj-
o
r-^
CO
r^
LO
in
VO
Ol
Tj-
vo
CO
o
+J +J IO
d cn in -4->
Qi IO (U O
o LU :s i
oo
00
oo
OCM
oo
oo
coo
ro
00
TJ-
C\J
mo
r-
CM
OlCM
Tj-
CM
coo
ro
ro
CM O
in
ro
o o
o o
VO O
cn LC
Tj- 1
VO
CM CV.
m
CM O
TJ-
TJ-
VO O
CM
TJ-
o
0
O
CM
O
O
CO
CO
r-*
O
TJ-
CM
in
p-
CM
in
CM
CO
CO
CO
1
oo
00
00
o o
0 0
00
00
VO O
CM
CO O
m
CM O
in
oo o
^
CM
in
CO
o
o
vO
m
>o
VO
TJ-
LO
O
Tj-
Tj-
VO
CM
Tj-
l~
01
o
oo
1 1
C +J 4J 10
O in in -M
Z. to
o
i
in o
ro
i O
CM
o
CM
CM O
^«
0 0
co
ro
CO O
rv.
CM
TJ- O
CM
CO O
CM
CM
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
LO
CM
ro
LO
CM
in
00
JZ
in
CO
CM
f__
CM
CM
_
0
oo
CO
CO
f^v.
C\J
^J-
CM
CO
C\J
CM
. .
i~
-t-1 10
E t/> in -M
to 10 aj o
~^LU a: t
a
o:
S-
-------
DRAFT
00 NOT QUOTE OR CITE
O
CU
t-
<+- *
U-l I/)
cu
XI
11
c
o
. cj
cn
r
in
r-.
cn
0
00
cn
r*».
r*-*
cn
CO !
o
si
1T3
Sco
GO
^
O
00
cn
r-.
r in
r 1
to CTJ
UJ
CM
in
CM
!
j
o o o
CM r jrO
in CO
i CO
O IO
CM CM
to
CM CM
to in
f l»
CM
to cn
r-- 1 i
cn
"*
m i «a- o
F~^ ' <3~ r
CT>
1 '
0
00
cn
o
si r-
JS r-~
QJ
u
CTl
i
CO 1
cn
CU 5- O
t/l fT3 f~^
*
O 00
i ro
in
o to
>O CM
CO
r- tO
tO CM
O
ro
in
to
tr
r^~
i
ro
CM
in
CM
"*
ta-
O CM
.
i O
i CM
i CD
CM CM
. .
CD
i CO
t O
CM CO
*
O
CM CO
r O
r-» CM
CM O
r-» CM
. .
CO CD
in CM
in
^f j "3" CD
00
^J-
in
to
CO
CO
CO
o
CTl CO
r
CO O
o co
in o
in ro
in o
O m lin co co
CO CM O
rC CJ CTl CTl JO
CD >-r
i jtM
s_
o
C 4->
4-* f0
r- U
ItJ -r-
r~.
>,4J 4J 10
CU "O 4J l/l CO 4-1
a: c
f- 1X3 >CU O
*** I ' i ""^ t
ea
4->
L.
O
2
CM
i
to «a-
r O
ro I co co
r
*3-
1
,»
in
*
in
cn
CM
cn
CO
r*-.
«a-
CM
^J-
,
to
CO
in
i
o
O ro
,
CM O
CO tO
i-^ 0
o m
CM O
i in
CM O
o «a-
.
ro o
CM ro
,
OO O
in m
O C
' "'"
oo to
.
CO C
cn in
r- 0
o
CM
CM
CO
CM
CM
in
.
CM
UD
C\J
CD O
O O
o o
o o
o o
0 0
O
O
o o
0 0
i
O
o
o
O CD
o
o
o
-[ -i
O OJCT
i'
0 0
0 00
o
0 0
o o
j
0
O
o
c
--
O
cr
o
o
o
ro
CM
CTi
ro
cn
CO
OO CO V£) ^ <+ ' -^t- "v i <^V
i i
i
^~
U>
0 i
r 4-1 4-> ItJ
l/> I/I 4->
ITS
0
r
___
.: . i-
j " I
r r ' 4J4JrO , C -»->+-> trj (~-j ^(/)4_> ! OI/1CO4-J. £:iyll/)4_)
Cent/14^1 rOt/lf/14J ^xl f\;CUO r^f^J^'O t/l^CCJD
ixJiocuo OtJCJO otjjisi j - ' LoJ r: 1 | *~- ' uj ^; )
UJ _±r \ t~- uj "^-: | ;
4J
H3
^ * r"~ I
rO i
Q ij ' Q Q
cu cc o | -x. =z
^ -j H. o ; o
S-
o
+J
l/>
cu
TJ
O)
T3
cu
s_
(O
O)
cu
cu
o
D_
o
s_
4-J
cu
UJ
o
o
ce
D.
D-
tn
CU
cu
4-
cu
0*
I
-------
a>
t.
o
ai a.
s. x
S. -r-
O. X
o
l)-
O i.
i CU i
10
LO
CO
LU
cu
«3 CO
r- O
4-> +->
l/l
LU CU
CO jQ
CU 'O
3 .a
cr-i-
L.
o
^
o>
o
CO
o
tl
CU
u
00
O
,
r3
Ol
U
CO
o
s_
C CO
LO CD CO i
a-
a- cn i CM O LO LO
01 *a- CM co o o
LO O ' CO i
CM
Ol r-- CO O ° UO O
OO Ln CM CO " O Ol
p^ LO CO
r-
Ol "CJ" CM CM CO P"^ CO
LO CO «S r
,3-
cn P-^ oo CM o un LO
OO LO CM CO i CO O
CM
Ol UO CO O O VO O
CO LO CM CO , O CT»
p-, LO CO
p__
^ P; 53 err q- 03 T
LO CM i CM «3- O
«^J- «3- LO CO O CO r -
CM r ff r
LO o r-» CM cn LO LO
«3- cn cn co un o O
CO LO r O LO OO i
CO 1 l CM r-
r~. . r-- o - LO o
CO O CM OO I. O Ol
CM 00 IO LO P-- CO
^t* r I r ^~
CO O P-. 1 i i CO
CM LO UO O P^ P^ °0
a- > co co r-~ «J-
ro CM r ro i
«3- n 01 «- uo un LO
i co 01 i "^ co o
un ro co un CM co i
«1- CM r -CT fNl
CM CO CO CM LO LO O
CO ro o co rl- o cji
cn ro p cn CM co
M A m n «
*J- CM I «* f^
«1- C3 UO CM LO i O
O <* rv r- CO CM cn
uo CM ro P-- ro (
r
«3- O UO CM LO i O
o
Ol O
O ur>
i
CO 00
LD r-»
CM CO
A «
. un
1
LO OO
O CM
LO cn
~
un co
O CM
LO Ol
*^J LO
CTl c
LO CO
"d" r-
Ol ^J-
CM CD
00 LO
r
-3- OO
CO LO
CM r
LO CO
p *
P~- LO
O- CM
» K
ro CM
ro ,
r cn
r LO
CO
cri
cn
LO
CO
LO
CO
co
0
o
ro
CM
LD
1-'-
UO
LO
tt
ro
CO
5
ro
oo
r^*-
o
un
CO
00
o
'"'""
CM
i
*>J"
r
i
LU
0
LO
CM
r
LO
cn
CTl
a")
i
VO
l f
ce
c:
i_ !-
OI
s -o
O CU
O- -o
3
U i
rg
+J T-
LJ
CU *J
r O
UJ c
I 01
O t.
CJ «
rx
LU 4-1
oLj
o.
3 cn
co t/>
E
E cj
-M i.
l/l o
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
XI
IT'
CO
T3
CU
C
<->
C
o
J3
ID
CU CL
S_ X
13 UJ
+->
ID
S_ -r-
Q. X
O
<4-
O 1-
(rt M-
CU
+J 3
(O (/>
O
+-1 +->
VI
UJ CU
CU
«3 3
3 J3
CT'i
(/I l-
+J
O
o
*c~
njO
CU
0
00
o
s-
(D CTl
c:
(_>
CO
o
il
(0 00
cu
o
oo
i
0
«r
$
fl 1^
d
CD
o
00
0)
- £
0
CO
CTl
r~~
CTi
*~
LO
CTl
CD
CO
CTl
P;
CTl
'
Vf)
r-.
CTi
O
oo
en
r
p*^
r--.
CTl
LO
p*^
CTl
'
O
CO
CTI
r**»
i
CTl
in
en
r~~
i. 0
c c>
/ T
IO ^jO LO O CM t CO
CM CO LT> VO CM kO
LT) CM i
r-~ ro CM O *3" CTs co
10 *~ CM
ft CTi >O «3- * O> Cn
CTI *=f t r--. co r^ <£>
10 m
t~- CTl CM i CM U1 iO
/*~l ^* r ^J- ^O CO f^.
^O CO CM
*^~ -^f CM O
r~^ r-^ r-^
CT^ O i "J- CO CT> O
CM ch CM i**-. ro r** to
co *^ r*~ LO ro
* »>
CM i i
«f CVJ CO ^t LO ^O
to r--- r ^t" "^ f*"5 r*^
CTI cr» <* ro o CM
r- r"
CM O CT» "* cn 'd- ro
CM LO o r^. LO r*^ co
O r CT* LO VO r
r, r, «
CO CXJ i
LO CD !""" IT* ^. ___
.g- r~ en CM f--- r~. oo
OO CM i CM ^ r
CO CM- r- ,_ ,_
_ ^^ p LH -^j- k£>
«3- O CNJ «! ff r*- r-.
LO CO U^ C^> CM (
CTi ^f
CM CO
10 CNJ
=3- CTi
r^ oo
CO CM
a- CM
oo r~
O CM
CO U">
_
IT) CO
CO CO
O r~
cn co
CO »3-
"
CM CO
CO CM
r ^J"
CO
«r CM
en CTI
CO CO
t
cu
o
<:
c_j
a.
Qi
(X
a.
«£
(_)
(O
o
cu
s_
cu
^:
T3
<1)
T3
(J
C
Ol
i.
3?
en
t- CU
_C i
J3
>l <0
l?4->
CD
"D
a> rti
rtU F
3
c in
o
r- CU
01 ^
01 4->
o:
c
1- -r-
O)
s xi
O CU
n. -a
3
O r
r- (J
i. C
4~> T-
O
CO +J
O
UJ C
t
<- 4J
a>
l/l r
cu a.
-M 6
*2 O
c= O
+J t.
-------
L.
00
^
if}
(U
i.
3
O
Jo.
X
UJ
+J
1/1 l/>
-o
(SI !-
i/> X
ID O
u
X i-
LU ZJ
<4-
4- i
O =>
CO
l/l
CO O
. i | »
£ CU
r- i
+J -O.
i/> it]
1 1 1 .u
LLJ *^
3
i/l -Q
£T
10 *J
u +->
o-i:
to
'./>
»-> T3
l/l ,C
(O TO
0)
(J
o
S- LT)
.13
c:
CU
u
o
o>
o
o
fO
CU
o
CO
o
0)
C CM
5 o O tt cn
°° P5 ^ r--- oo ovj «*
CM 00 CM -* £J * 52
00 00 ^ r- 00 CM *
r r~~
S o § oo oo 5 on
CO <- <=! O 00 CM *tj-
- S S 5 o S S
OO OO *}- l~- °° CM LO
1 """
LO O
oo «a-
CM CM
LO O
«d- oo
CM i
LO OO
LO l^~
CM r
O r
sj- t\J
CM «*
LO
O
00
cn
r
cn
cn
0
CO
cn
£;
cn
*~
' "~~~~
O
00
r-*.
cn ,
LO
cn
J
o
CO
01
r-.
cn
LO
cn
CJ i- O
03 CJ Cn
CQ >- r
o
cn LO O CM i" °2 '
fi,. r~ LO 00 00 ^- LO
00 ^ «! O OO CM *
UO <- Ol i CM r- CO
ft, CM 1^ O OO «* Ol
01 0 r-~ ^ CM «*
LO CM 01 * ^T r- LO
CM CD «* «* cn ^ co
£5 CM 00 r- CO CM *
CM i r i
LO 00 01 CM O i CO
CM 00 LO 00 CM «3" LO
^- CM T C cn CM *r
CM i i
LO LO 01 r- 0 LO LO
CM CM 0 0 CM 01 OJ
CM OO »3" 1 O> CM LO
CM i i i
LO CM Ol 00 OO CO LO
r^ r-^ oo ^r CM ^ °°
^J- OO LO r O CM «3"
CM r r r
LO CM Ol OU 00 H- 00
|t, 1-^ CM 00 CM >* LO
m oo LO o o CM *i-
CM i i ' r~
OO CM Ol OO CM i CO
r^. O CM LO cn LO LO
LO LO cn r^, "3* r~ *^" '
*~ 1
CO CM Cn OO CM i CO
r^. o CM LO cn LO 1.0
LO LO Ol P**. ^" i"~ *^
r>~ o cn LO o i 10
CM i~ ' CM r^ ^J" *3~ *3"
co r~- CM cn oo CM «*
^J- Ol Ol LO i£> LO OO
r^. co i LO i r*. oo
CO 1^- CM r~- CM OO LO
CM r CM i
TT co cn LO LO LO co
CM co oo LO oo cn cn
CO LO CO CM i CM ^t
CM i i i i
«* TJ- Ol OO LO r CM
r** ^D fo co LO ^* r^»
r^ ft T^ O O CM «*
CM r i i t
oo oo cn r^ oo oo CM
r«- oo «D co CM co oo
O CM ^- LO O ^
\-
c_? o
JZ
\
'
JC
cn
r- CU
-C r
JD
^?-3
CU
00
o
LO
CO
o
LO
oo
10
CM
LO
00
LO
»
o
r
LO
OO
3-
O1
00
00
CO
CO
0
O
oo
] ,
L.
cu ro
"3 E
c: in
O
-^ a)
ry
^
cu
O Ol
a. -o
U i
I *r CJ
s- c:
!J
CU (->
i O
LLJ c
1 CU
O S-
cj ro
ce
1 13
Q- -Q
o
CO VI
OJ
O CU
O)
i/) i
OJ Q.
ID O
E U
-M V.
-------
.m a>m
DRAFT WTC
90 NOT QUOTE OR CITE
XI
« «
Xt
*
1/1
o
a.
x
UJ
+J x
10 O
«t
in 3
co <*-
ai i
O 3
x in
O
O>
VI r
CD -Q
r- XI
ai
i- i/i
(O "d
3 C
CT ra
CO in
-U O
in x:
it) I
o
(^
C 00
O)
t)
I £
1
o
£_
13
c r-»
O)
0
(/")
"-
0
CO
en
~
r-»
r-~
en
1
CO
r^
en
f -
o
CO
en
~
i^
r*^
en
r
LO
l^>.
CTl
"~
O
OO
CTl
*~
|^
cn
LO
p-^.
CD
CO
en
P
i*»^
CTl
CO
f«^.
cn
u) 5- O
. 1/1 fo r^-.
*O O CTI
i C3 > i
O co CM i cn i co
co LO o co r-^ co O
CM CO CO LO CM r *t
O CD i i CO CO CO
co r~- co co o co o
CM CO CO CO CO i =!
cn co O co LO co cn
CM co CTi cn O co i
co co co co co i «3-
r
O co i r-- CTI ^f c\j
co co
! § £
"7 i <
c_) o; c_> cu 2^ t_) O
(_> < CC O_ ' D^ <_)
CO CO
CO CTl
i C
CM r
CO CM
r r-.
CO O
CM r
O CM
. LO
<* CM
CM i
CO CO
O CO
CO CM
CM r
LO .
CM CO
*} CO
CM i
CO T
cn to
«d- co
CM r
LO CO
CO CO
CO D
co i
CO CM
LO C~-
CO O
a- i
O CM
CO CO
CM CM
CO i
LO CO
LO CO
O CM
* "
+->
t/i ^
ri, o ii r~t -^c i'C '-/~* i ^ j?J
LT UJ OO I/} Z.I 1- ~^-
UJ 5:
*
CO
CM
CO
OO
CO
CO
CO
CM
CO
CO
co
CTl
CO
LO
CO
CO
CO
l-~
CO
o
LO
o
n-
o
LO
cn
«a-
o
CO
r-~
CO
CM
CO
«*-
co
00
cn
CM
LO
LO
o
CTl
CO
cn
CO
>a-
r-~
i ° ;
r? i
00 1
, 1
1
,
ro
.,_)
0
1 -
1
1
a>
!_
ai
TJ
O)
T3
o
c
ai
s-
, 10
S- +>
CD
d)
t_
10
C
O
S- !-
cu
x xi
O O)
Q- -a
3
U i
OJ *J
O
f O)
O S_
<-J IO
Q- XI
a.
3 in
CO l/l
CD
i- C
O i
CO OL
4J E
IO O
e u
i
4J J_
W O
-------
03
-d
a
o cu
C i
03 .£3
us
o
cu
. _ i.
a 3
«O 4-
£> 01*3
Q
+J O)
l/l C
TO 3
CU I
Scenario
6
o
1_
fC
t: m
Cu
o
u~>
o
u
c3-
c;
Ol
u
to
o
r
i.
s~
o
oo
Scenario
2
o
i_
t)
C r~
OO
Ol
.
It)
1
o
CO
Cn
r^.
r--
C-v
in
r^-
C-.
0
CO
en
r-.
r^.
01
un
r^-
o
CO
r-~.
r-.
in
i.
i
o
03
r^
r^.
in
r^
O
00
CT)
r^-
r
en
in
r-~
en
O
oo
en
r^.
r^
en
in
t-~
Cn
S- 0
*o r-^
O CTt
c
o
Ol
co o O i-v
d- co CM r~- r-- t~- r-.
co en r-» *j- o <*>
» » r " "
in oo r
V£> ID ID ^ m O I
ro **j- Tf in o Is*- Cvj
ID O Ol CO CS1 r Cn
in « un i i
«t cn co ID in o CM
CM O UD CO O !"- ""
CD r O f-- CM i CM
in i i «3- r '
^£> IO ^£) f^ O ^ ^
ro rj- «a- i- r-~ o 03
UD o 01 «a- o in «*
in ! oo r r-
<"M
in i i «a- i i i
in oo OO ro en o vD
in co «* i~- e^> r r-
* wo r ti- «* en
en «i- «* co ro i i
co in co i~~ oo o <
3- en o un co i CM
in O 10 eo co r en
i in ur> m =* i i
co cr. n vo co o eo
«^j- m tr) co ^i- r^ i
r CM (xj r-^ Ul i CM
CM in ijp «=r «* i r
en o m c^o f*^ in en
u- in ro r- TJ- o oo
en ^ cr> <^- m m ^f
o in ur> QO ^r < >
en i en r~ i^» ^o <
TJ- en i in co co CM
TJ- en en co i co ro
CM in ir> in m t i
O i > U3 r-^ o CM
in tn en ro co f-. >
o en in r-. i i CM
co in ua *t in i i
r~- cxi «d- ro o ^ CM
r~- o m en '-o en
vo O CO ' O >~O CM
r CM co ro CM <
r- CM tf ro O * CM
r-. CD tn en u^ cr» .
UD CD CO i CD IO CM
r-^ CM ro ro CM '
*3- ijo «£) r^ i o en
10 en in CM r~ r-~ in
in m en «3- o i
CO CM «3- *f f '
P-~ U3 O in
in CM oo co . i CM *j-
co CM ro r~- co o in
* oo o co 10 CM ,
us < 10 en o un 10
m to ID r>* eo cz> i^.
in r in en co in ro
»* i~~ co m in i r- 1
r
LO r OJ ID OO O ID
in en ^ ^i- cj- r-^. ID
CM «a- r~- o co i CM
* 10 r~- in in i i
«a- en co o r-^ co r-~
10 m ID en co ^r o
O CM CM CM r OO r
10 in vo CM in r
C.5 CD
< CJ
< Ctl
:." i~i
I l ct
0 IX. 0 (X Z <_> (_>
<_>
up ^r
00 r
O CO
O r
n o
cn co
m cn
ID ,
CO ,
cn r-»
'O' OS
CO r-
r-, O
e\i ^
cn oo
ro «3-
IO CO
10 r-
CM
co cn
CM i
oo r~~
CM
. r~-
00 ID
i *=J"
r^. i
CM i
CM «a-
in ,
m o
O CO
CO
in co
CM i
CO r-
o r~-
CO
ro en
cn en
0 O
m in
co cn
cn cn
o o
in tn
10 10
, in
oo r^
O <^3
CM
t~-~ CM
1^- l^>
r^ co
en CM
CO r
CO O
O ID
r- CO
VD CO
co
IO CM
co oo
CO <3-
CO P^-
co
co m
r^« ^a-
l~- CM
CM
CO
00
ID
UD
in
CO
co
co
**
cn
r^
CO
CM
cn
o
CM
CM
cn
o
CM
CM
«*
en
>J3
CM
cn
CM
CM
in
CO
VO
cn
«a-
*d-
co
(0
«*
00
o
r^
CO
O
01
cu
-u
cu
O
c:
QJ
!_
(O
-C CU
>1S
S- (O
CU -I-J
e^D
i- ia
ro E
C 3
O t/1
cn CU
CU -C
ce -u
s_ c
cu -
o -a
Q. ai
-o
u 3
s. o
+-> c
U -r-
CU
i -t->
LlJ O
C
I
O 01
(_> S-
cc t-
-------
.m^A
DRAFT
NOT QUOTE OR CITE
-O 0)
IO -O
ID
S
to
ra a s_
o ro 3
in in
in 3 o
l/> O Q-
d) -C X
O r- UJ
X.
UJ c: in
<»- *~ TD
O C -
O X
in -i- O
0) >->
*-> a i.
ro > ^
E +>
d) i*
S_ n]
en
10
01
o
c ""
OJ
u
00
o
t-
c cn
OJ
00
o
S-
cco
Ol
u
oo
o
L.
0)"^
OJ
' re
OQ
o
CO
en
r-,
r
in
-
o
CO
cn
r^
cn
r
in
cn
0
CO
en
i
cn
P--
cn
o
CO
cn
^
cn
m
Cn
S- 0
o cn
>- i
C
o
O)
Ol
oc
r-. id i »* CM cn o i
in r- CM i i
ID cn in i o co cn
co CD co cn p*» ^}* m
ID r- CO 00 O CO i-^
in i CM r i
uD «3-
ID i cn ^~ CM co *~
in i «* i i
CO CO CO U3 O I" ^"
co ID "3" cn ID cn in
co co co cn co * in CD
oo ^. _ oo
CM in O i CM U3 LT)
U") " CT» r-v CJ^ r ^~ I-T)
O O *3" CO CT> U"> O
o LO ^r CM m
r-~
*O O *i CT> C^O O O
LO LO LO CNJ ^j- O i
00 1-jO f*^ CXJ ^ r~ *~~
o o *x> r co oo o^
LO LD LO CTl 00 *J" ^"5
ro r^. cri co ro oo "
O LO ^f CM <^ *
co CM co co r^ CO cn
^f CO O ^f ^ ^
un co LD " LO co
LO ^" ^" *"~
^
^- ch oo o r-* CO r^«*
^D LO LO cn co ^f o
O CM CM CM i CO '
IjD UO LO CM LO r
V
0 O
< a: a. cc <~>
CX. O Lj-J "^ ^C < OO
oj *r
ID cn
^J- VD
^^ CO
OJ VD
CO Tj-
i in
« i
CO CO
F^» CO
co cn
in «3-
co «*
in *3-
ID CD
0 *
CO »3-
O CO
in cn
ID CO
co «
r in
/> in
ro Ol
uj 3
VD
in
r~~
r
00
vo
#1
r-
r~"
O
CO
o
CO
cn
^i-
CM
CO
in
CO
r~~
ID
CO
o
in
CO
en
in
cn
CM
CO
ft
CO
CM
CM
O
CO
CM
V>J
CM
in
CM
OJ
CO
o
co
o
UD
^
CO
CO
CO
o
co
r
ra
4-J
o
-------
Q
o:
"3
OJ
ISI
na to
1- 01
CX 3
to to
O
CO OJ as
CO , in 0)
4->
tu =C
o
X C
LU 11
s-
M- T3
O r
10 jr
41 O
4->
ro c
CJ
00
o
s-
10
CTM
CU
O
O
i.
irs
C i
cu
u
I/I
o
CO
cn
r
r .
r^.
01
in
cn
0
CO
cn
«3-
r^
cn
un
r-~
CTi
0
CO
2
r-»
r-
cn
r
in
r^
cn
0
CO
cn
r-.
r^
cn
'
LT)
r-^
cn
§
CT*
r*-
r^*-
cn
m
f*^
CM
0
oo
cn
r^
r^
cn
in
fv.
cn
-
cu i- o
to to r^.
ro CJ cn
ca >-
c
o
O O O cn O O O
in
r- O O tO O O . O
to
m o o oo o o o
r- o o o o r-. o
to
r~
in o o to o «r o
to
m o o oo o o o
**
, sj- oo cn oo O O
i£> sj- t in oo
o m in to o o o
, in CM to m
«- co to cn «3- o o
CM in co sj- m
to CM o o «a- !-> o
cn i co to in
o co o to cn *3- o
oo !*» in to to
.
«- oo oo cn oo O O
5 *-*«>
i
r f*-
, oo 0 r~> r- to O 0
r l"» -^
100 o f~~ *° c> °
LO co cn in
,;". 0 ~ oo sj- 0 o
to r»- oo cn in co o
co co in to cn i
to en co in co r^ o
ro o cn oo oo
CM i
CM CM OO r». r O O
r« en r*. in r^
i*
rf CO to CO CO O O
r in OO IO
CM
n-
0 O
<: o
cC Cc
n uj
i _ i <:
I
O cn
in
t to
to
m 03
^j-
i r^
to
r~"
m o
r^.
in oo
«a-
r- CTl
in in
o to
,3- to
XM
CM cn
r-- "3-
CM
CM r-
in to
CM r
r~ o
CM I~-
co
oo cn
CO ^J-
co
TT r--
- i
CO
o cn
i CO
i r^
r- co
in r-
CO CM
to cn
«!
oo r-
o in
«
to oo
I~»
CO
CTl
in
r^
to
CO
in
00
to
*""
m
r-«
CO
in
o
oo
to
o
oo
i
i
CM
OO
cn
a.
<-> E
nj O
e o
(-» S-
trt O
UJlf-
K
-------
Li.
ui
»
a
o
*->
ro (A
i- CU
r- S-
a. 3
(/> in
ai o
o£ a.
x
i. ui
cu
o ai
_J TJ
-n * *
wtio
s>=
^CT?S
CO l" ^
co ai
LU 3 r
O -£>
CU _f n3
1 I +->
CU =£
O
X, C
uJ cu
03 O
*J
LO
01
O
CO
cn
r^
cn
r--
LO
cn
r
O
CO
cn
r^
cn
i_
LO
cn
o
oo
cn
cn
LO
r-,
cn
^~
CU S- O
' t» o cn
CJ S- r
c
o
0)
cc.
O O O O O O O
o o o o o o o
i o O CM O O O
O O O CO O O O
, O O CM O O O
1
r- O O O O O O
ro
r-. LO o o CM o o
CM CO i
LO LO Op O OO O O
^r* *r
LO LO LO CM CM O O
F^* LO r-* r «}
LO LO cn co oo o o
«3- LO 00
CM CM CO CM i O O
OO 1 ' r LO
o *i- LO o co o o
i f^ CM CO LO
r CO O
< oe
-^ LU
*T i
u
cu u uJ is
-------
DRAFT
00 NOT QUOTE OR CITE
L
V)
flj
I_
3
>> ">
C o
0 CX
+J X
10 Ul
I.
r- I/)
a. ai
w T3
1 O
m ui c +J
r O> O
o z T-* rO
OJ O O
i-
(O *|
3 O '.
cr
CO 1/1
o
-t-> c
W) IO
a in
& 3
| Q ^_
J=
1
O
(.'
£T IO
o
u
OO
o
i_
c in
c
u
CO
o
s_
CO
:enario
3
"
O
L)
U
CO
O
'H
TO
C «
HI
U
O
OO
Cl
£:
cn
^^
in
cn
o
co
en
CM
r
in
cn
i
i
o
oo
cn
r-
r^
cn
O
CO
cn
p^
r>*
cn
in
cn
§
cn
r
r^.
cn
in
cn
r~
O
CO
cn
r"~
r*>*
r-
CTi
in
cr>
CJ 1- O
i/> (O r^
rj o CT>
C
c
' C
Ol
Qr-
o o o i/> o o o
(^J
CVJ
O O O O O O
^o ^
O O O if* O CT> O
CO
CM
^ o o o o <*"> o
CT»
r O O «*> O O O
cn rx oo «> ^* o o
oo in «~- CNJ *r
CO
CO CO Ol C7V ^ O O
vo r*^ <*^ oo f^*
O & Ch ro o O O
o^ r-^ ** vo rs-
LTJ 00 r IO CO O> O
«- ov «r CM r-v.
r CO
co ^Sl* oo a ot *^ o
o O ^o co cr\
C\J r
u^ ^o oo co oo o o
CO O U^ ^O O^
CO r
*t o co
*j- o r co r-. o o
d- O CO
^j- O r co r* o O
^o ^0 CNJ tn
ivo O co tn uo o o
ro co o^ oo O ^J" O
^ "" ^^
CJ f f r- r
o ^o co to «* o o
r^ cj o^ t*- o
CVJ r-
&t Ol CT* CO CO O O
ro r-*- ^f O*
ro
cj O
-~ UJ
i i c_>
t_j cc a: Q- cr: c_>
CL C-J LU ^r e-C «^C co
0 3
CO
^3 ^ft
t CO
0 tl-
CO
CM
i CO
cn
CO
CO
f LCI
r- CM
CM CM
tf 00
CO
I-. CO
cn 10
CO
CJ **
vO CO
CO CM
10 CO
r^. cn
«r
r*^ co
co to
3-
r CM
IO CM
c CM
IO CM
I»- CM
Lf) LO
«3- CM
vf IO
OO CM
i in
cn CM
00 CO
cn P*.
in
in CM
CO
in
4*>J 4~*
cn 1/1
m T
CM
CM
cn
CO
«-
3-
CO
CM
cn
«J-
10
CO
CO
0
CO
cn
cn
in
0
in
in
CO
CO
CO
co
cn
0
CM
IO
O
r"~
co
CO
CO
CO
(X.
in
r~
IO
<->
01
s_
cu
Ol
o
u
c
f
cu
^
IO
-C
H~
x:
C7l O)
-C 3
TO
>>-'-'
"1"
O >->
O) o
r C
UJ
0)
O TO
O
CC !->
UJ 3
I -Q
CU
Cu
3S
cu
w I
0) CX
1 1 (
4^ d
§o
L)
+J t.
O
UJ <«-
«
"~
-- 1,1 **
-------
DRRFT ,
BO sot ftuon OR cm
" ;
OJ
s_
Q O
CC Q.
<_> X
o> in
in 01
-
0) -r-
10 x
O
4-> 3
ra 00
S-.
r- O
a> a>
-Q C
cn ,
co ir ,
. (J tf)
:ij X CD
,,,UJ l/>
W) O
0)
ia -o
E c
i- 13
UJ O
s_
>a
cr <
oo
oo
CJ >-
c
o
C7)
0)
1..".
78
o o o o o o o
0 O 0 0 O 0 0
O O O ID O O O
O O CD OJ O O O
O O O ID O O O
^~
O O O r O O O
r-» & o o ID o o
OO ^" r-
10 o oj o r o o
O OO OJ ID O O O
10 cn oj oj r-. O o
lf*» QO ^"~ <5^
OJ CO VP ID ID O O
oj cn CM i r^.
CO O 00 OJ 00 O CD
ko CD oo ^i* r^»
r i
, oo cn r^» co ID ^o
c\j i o r** r^- oj oo
£ , C\J 00 0 »- r-
CO i " - f~"
0 §
5 °s
~r ' «t
O OS C_J Q. Z <-> O
a. u uj 3 *s. < oo
is u-i oo oo sn ^
o o
O 0
CD ID
O OJ
O ID
r
0 i
VO O
cn
ID O
00
ID ID
VD r
OJ
Tl- OJ
OJ
ID
OJ i
oo
cn oj
r*» ^~
CO
r- CO
OJ OO
CO <&
4-3 4J
-------
DRAFT 1
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
HI
O 3
ce in
o o
X
CU LU
in
ro in
cu cu
I/I "O
Q ^<
0
>1
I* &
O 3
rO i
i- 3
r- CO
0.
in o
CU 4-1
CU
(J 1
» 0
C ra
CO 0 4->
. L. 3
ra UJ O >
O 1-
Ol CU to 4-i
i in 4->
I X ^-* -
LU in
cu
14 in
in
cu 4-
4J O
ra
E C
in ro
LU U>
in o
CU -C
s- (
cr in
J*
in O
CU (/I
-1 5.
0 .
Q
s-
CJ
to
o
s_
c L"
cu
u
1/7
O
rO
U
I/)
O
c.
o
o
t/n
O
ra
C CM
at
u
o
rO
C r
CU
O
o
co
Ol
CJ1
"~
un
en
o
CO
O1
^
,
LO
O
CO
en
£
en
un
en
r
C3
CO
CT>
£
cr\
r
K
en
o
gj
p*«.
2
uo
en
o
CO
en
^
en
LO
en
*~~
O O O CO O O O
co
o o o ^" o o o
CM
o o o co o o o
o o o co o o o
CO
o o o «* o o o
CM
O O O rO O O O
O O O CO O O O
n
O r O ^" Ol O O
CM w
O LO O rv> r*- O O
f -i CM
o r^ LO co up o o
i n CM
"~
O CM t ^J- 1^- O O
r- CM CM CM LO
CO CM LO CO CO O O
ro CM i LO
0 O CD O O O O
o o o o e> o o
C) O CD CM f-» O O
<} CO LO Ol OD O O
o en r~~ LO o
CM O IO VO LQ O O
O LO *! <3- CO
CO fO fO r LO
CO S- 0
I/I 1C f^~
ro O CD
C3 >- .
c
O
s
oi
O lO O O t^ O O
LO r LO
\-'
0 O
rf- Q;
== LU
T I <
<_j ct c_> Q. z: o <_>
o ce o
r\ O UJ *^2 «^ *^C CO
rr L-J 10 oo r: s: 2
O CO
ro
r"~
o «^-
CM
O CO
O CO
ro
r
0 Tt
CM
O ro
O CO
CO
o «*
CM CM
CM ro
^*
00 co
~~
0
I/I l/>
ra CU
LU :z
00
CO
*"
CM
CO
CO
ro
r
CM
ro
CO
CO
5
LO
LO
CO
*~~
s
CO
0
o
CM
CM
LO
o
CO
LO
CM
CM
CM
CM
CM
rO
o
r
cu
(U
a
cu
3
u
c
cu
s_
ro
>^
0)
J=
1
r-
DI ai
j» j3
rO
i_
cu >>
> fc.
cu |
rO 3
l/l
o at
O* 4-*
fl)
^ e
L.
CU XJ
§-§
a- .3
o o
i C
£ "r^
tj ^J
cu o
i C
LU
cu
1 S.
O rO
i -a
Q.
a.
2
au
in r
cu a.
ra O
E U
+J S-
in o
LU 4-
*
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
(/I
C S- 3
O -C -Q
U <-J -r-
LU O
o
iy)
ai <+-
M o
"3
E wi
to o
a> .c
cr w
co s-
ai
+J ^
(/> O
«j e
Q) CO
_1
s-
o
o
s~
fa a
C i
CD
CO
o
£
rO
CD
O
CO
S
o
i-
fO
u
CO
o
'£
t) ,^_
OJ
co
01
. tn
C3
o
CO
Ol
r
r-.
01
r-*
CO
01
o
co
en
r-
CTl
LO
01
o
CO
Ol
f^
Ol
in
01
o
CO
p^
CTl
LfJ
f-^
01
S- 0
0 Ol
>- 1
O
t
0. tj cu 3T <£ < VJ
ir uj co co s: - ^
1
O 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
.0 o
0 0
o o
o o
r 0
r O
VO f~^
CO
CO O
*lj"
, CO
CM 00
CO CO
lO
I/I l/l
fO O
LU 3:
0
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
r-
;z
CD
n
LT)
^^
Ol
uo
«*
(_
0
-------
DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
O
O.
X
ai
-o
r *->
o
m UJ ai
i **-
en aj M*
T3
eC
cr
00
(->
o
s-
TO L£>
Ol
(J
CO
CO
cn
£
r
LO O
«d~ CM
r*^ ^3-
«J- CM
co ^r
i
LO
I ' -
en
1
O
t.
ro
<^ LO
Ol
u
oo
o
S-
ro
c ^
01
o
if}
o
s_
cr ro
01
00
'
O
CO
cn
cn
LO
2
o
oo
r
cn
cn
O
8
oo cn
cn ro
CO «cf
^1" CD
CO LO
co cn
cn «3-
CM LO
cn cn
cn co
CM O
^ CM
LO *fr
LO
CM
cn ,
ro ^j-
00
oo cn
ro ro
cn
0 0
P--. 1.0
LO
i
'
OO
CXI
r~
O
CO
ro
C""l f^s.
O
LO.-,
CXJ CD
uDr^
CM O
i
CM
LO
"^
1
LT>
ro
*
CO
CO
ro
CM
cn
LO
ro
O
CO
CO
*co
CM O
10 00
CM O
Lor-
CM O
0^
^^- o
co r-^
LO CD
CM
CO
:n
10
0
ro
r~~ co jcn
1
r-».
cn
cn cn
cn ^j-
o
; co LO
^ «JD en
f^- CM CO
i £ ; ^
o
C CM
Ol
U
00'
0
CO
cn
r~"
r^
cn
r
LO
1 -
o
V.
ro
0) "~
U
00
OO
cn
f
^
cn
LO
cn
O) l-O
(/i ro r^
«J -<
£_
O
.c: *->
* u
cu ~o
31 c:
f-4
n r-
o
LO r-
CD t*~
LO CX
' ~
"^f CT1
cn cc
rf
cn LO
cn
CM cn
CO
*3- LO
CO CO
CXJ LO
LO
r- -Tj-
£ 5
ro
ro o
. LO
r CM
CM
00
«-
IO
^
=0
L£
CO
'
CO
) 1
LO
?
CM
CT>
'
cn
CO
LO
LO
-^
CO
ro
ro
ro
ro
,
2*^ 4-> 4J *t3
4-* (/I */» 4-*
r fQ QJ O
r- Ul 3C |
ro
*^
O
LO O
cn co
-
LO O
LO CO
LO CD
LO r-~,
LO O
i cnl
o *
CO
r- cn
o
H)
"O
X)
n
-o
-o
XI
o
^
->
~°
^
""
2
D
-
T)
XJ
O
"XI
o
«=t
o
M
UD UD
O CO
*3~
, cn
CO O
LO CO
r-%. CD
O r*^
r^*. CD
CO LO
LO O
"XJ
cn
CM
j;
33
o
30
^
^
^
* »
O r~
r 4-J +-J (t)
- tn wi +->
fO 01 0
tl UJ 3 >
5
i/t
^
ro
r
*""» 4-> -4-J fQ
cn t/i (/i -»_>
CD fO CU O
i LD ^ \
Q
o;
-j
o o
0 0
i O
o cn
i ro
t O
r 0
CM
I-. O
UD
CO
cn o
ro
o en
00
to
LO O
to
r^ (_,'
0
IO
«* o
UD
CM CM
CM
r
LO cn
cn
o o
00
r- CM
CO
r-.
o
o
-
cn
a-
r-
NJ
UD
ro
en
ro
cn
0
cn
to
LO
LO
£
10
o
CM
a-
cn
a
3O
31
30
""i
^- r~
ro *-> *-» «c
C, t/) l/l 4-*
F ro Ol C
* * ' ' ' !j* H~
C3
ct:
r
ro
4-1
o
O 0
o o
r 0
o cn
r CO
r- O
O
CM
r-. 0
ro
r^. o
cn
ro
CM cn
10
CO
rS **
r^ 0
co
f111 LJ
UD
r O
U3
r^ CD
LO
«ct- CM
OO
cn
cn
LO
oo o
01
LO
LO C\J
LO
O
o
r-
cn
*
^
,
CM
ro
cn
ro
ro
O
00
3O
LO
s
1 ,
LO
CO
00
0
0
1
o
n
r>
^
0
o
!_ r
o ro cu o
E: ijj 3 t
00
1
C
o
z
Q
0
1
O 0
o o
O 0
o o
0 O
o o
o o
O 0
CM
CM O
CO O
o o
CO O
CM
tJ ^J~
0 0
r-- o
ro o
CO
ro
*r o
CM
CM O
CM
CM 0
CM
CM
o
0
o
0
o
0
0
o
CM
CM
00
0
OO
CM
"O~
0
1
CO
00
ro
tj-
CM
CM
CM
CM
CM
CM
r_
4-^ 4-> ro
i/i cn 4-»
> tj 01 o
L. UJ 3 1
Ol
.^l
f^
l/>
^ *
o
ex
0
-------
o
a.
ai
-a
x
o
OJ
XI
c <
4J I/I
C 4J
O O
.O O OJ
' <+-
cn r**. f-
4.
O)
O
V}
0
T!
1*
QJ
~r
O
i_
ro
CJ
O -i
(U
l/>
id
CD
co
OS
B
LO
r-%.
CTt
i
0
CO
Oi
£
cn
m
Ol
o
oo
Ol
"~
01
*~~
in
Ol
O
CO
CTl
r*.
cn
in
Ol
P~-
2
~
o
ro
ro
10
ro
o
in
10
CM
to
Ol
in
CTl
Ol
o
00
CM
01
ro
o
ro
r
4-> (/) i/l 4->
r- * OJ O
t-
O
CM tO
CM O
ro in
CM O
^to
CM O
ro to
CM O
"^ *J
CM O
in 10
CM O
cn to
ro o
to u">
«J- O
CM tO
in o
<» o
in o
Ol to
in o
CO
O
*«-' tn wi *-*
ro CU O
ro UJ 3C r-
J
V)
in P-X
PX. i
CO r
to 10
00 i '
r-,-
CO CM
to o
CO CM
O 0
Ol CM
O IO
r~
ro in
o' ^
CM
in to
CO .
CM
O r
r CM
CM
^f r~i
in CM
CM
in o
Pv CM
CM
oo o
CM CM
CO
CM
Ol
Ol
CM
0
CM
O
'
to
o
o
^
to
00
CM
in
CM
ro
CM
CM
in
Ol
CM
a
XT
ro
u>
o
^~*
cn
c
r
T3 4J 4-»
f
r^i VI 1/1 .*J
O rO CU O
> ui 3e (
. Q
oc
O O
0 0
o o
o o
o o
o o
to o
Ol
IO 0
oo
10 O
IO
CM
m o
CM
CM
r-. o
ro
d- o
CM
r--. CM
' CO
o
o
o
0
o
0
10
Ol
oo
to
to
CM
in
CM
CM
in
t-v,
ro
CM
31
30
x. r
ro *J 4-> i/l *-*
O n3 _CJ O
I/)
I
C
o
3Z
§
0 0
0 0
o o
0 0
0 O
0 0
o o
o o
o
r O
to o
ro
£°
CM O
CM
CM
o
o
0
0
0
0
o
o
r~~
-
to
ro
^
CVI
CM
CM
"" " -
,_
*-> *J *O
I/I 11 +-J
-* ra CJ O
i- LhJ ^1 i
CU
o
£:
I/)
O
cc
"of
+J
o
4-J
O
M
OJ
"j
Q/
(J
- JC
>
(V
4)
jC
1-
0)
-------
------- |