001 R99101
5393

                      Displacing  Oil  Power  Plants
                   with Coal;  An Economic  Analysis
         EPA cost estimates  indicate  that  utilities  can  convert
    many oil-fired plants  to  coal  or  even  replace  existing  oil
    plants with new coal plants  and reap economic  savings
    to  their customers while  complying  with  applicable
    pollution standards.
                    f
         Table I below-demonstrates that converting  to coal is
    economical even under  the  assumption that  the  plant  under-
    goes a high cost boiler  conversion, and  builds a 90%
    effective S02 scrubber.   The saving in this  case is
    4.9 mills/kwh.  Vvith less  stringent control  equipment,
    which can be applied in  many cases  under existing state
    emissions limitations, the analysis shows  an even greater
    saving from a coal conversion,  in this case  15.0 mills/kwh.
    It  should be noted that  in many cases  state  emissions
    limitations can be met without  an S02  scrubber.  In those
    cases the conversion savings will be even  higher than  those
    described in the attached  tables.

         Table II illustrates  that  retiring  a  modern oil
    plant and replacing it with  a  new coal facility  can  result
    in  electricity cost reductions, due to the substantial
    differences between the  price  of  coal  and  oil.   The  capital
    cost estimate for  the  new  coal  facility  assumes  expenditures
    for pollution control  equipment to  meet  EPA's  New Source
    Performance Standards  (NSPS),  including  a  90%  effective
    SG2 scrubber and a baghouse  for particulates.  To the
    extent that many plants  will require less  controls,
    the advantage of coal-fired  plants  is  greater.

         The analysis  assumes  an oil  price of  $20  per barrel
    and a coal cost of $30 per ton.   The results are sensitive
    to  the price of oil, as  illustrated in Table III.

         Table IV estimates  the  capital costs  and  operating
    savings for a 500  megawatt powerplant  under  the  three
    conversion assumptions.   Each  megawatt of  capacity costs
    $95,000, $470,000  and  $740,000  for  low cost  conversions,
    high cost conversions  and  new  coal  plants, respectively.
    The net present value  of  the savings per megawatt is $824,000,
    $784,000 and $808,000  for  the  three cases, respectively.

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                         -2-

     How the benefits from reduced electricity  costs
would accrue to consumers depends upon the  regulatory
policies of individual states. Many public  service
commissions charge capital expenses at a  higher  rate
in early years, and less in later years of  an investment
rather than charging capital costs evenly over  the
life of an investment. (See Table V, which  illustrates
two methods for allocating capital expenses  to  ratepayers
over time.) It is possible that  in some cases,  coal
conversions will add to electric rates in the early
years, even though consumers benefit over the life
of the investment.

     In summary this analysis  indicates that the U.S.
can substantially reduce oil dependency while cutting
electric rates and while meeting applicable  environmental
standards.

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                         TABLE  I
COMPARISON OF ANNUALIZED COSTS OF AN  OIL  PLANT  CONVERTED
TO COAL VvITH THE OPERATING COSTS OF AN  EXISTING OIL PLANT  I/

                         (Mills/Kwh)
                       (Mid-year 1979$)

                               Low               High
                   Existing    Cost Coal         Cost Coal
                    Oil	    Conversion  3/    Conversion  _4/

Annualized
Capital Costs 5/

  Scrubber             0          1.4               2.4
  Boiler Conversion    0            .4               1.1
  ESP Upgrade          0            .2                .2

                                 2.0              11.3

Fuel Cost             32.2  2/   13.0              13.0

Operating
and Maintenance         .5        2.7               3.5
Total (Mills/Kwh)     32.7        17.7              27.8


_!/   Assumes a 12.5%  capital charge,  a  20  year  amortization period
     and a 65% capacity  factor.
_2/   Assumes oil cost of $20/bbl  and  a  coal  cost  of  $30 per ton.
_3/   Based on these capital cost  estimates:

       Scrubber - 50% Control         $65/kw
       Boiler Conversion               20/kw
       ESP Upgrade                     10/kw
                                      595/kw

_4/   Based on these capital charge  estimates:

       Scrubber - 90% control    $110/kw
       Boiler                     350/kw
       ESP Upgrade                10/kw
                                 $470/kw

_5/   Capital costs are converted  to annualized  costs using the
     formula:

     Capital costs x  capital charge/5694

         (5694 is the  total operating  hours per  year  at
         65%  capacity  factor)

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                           TABLE  II

    COMPARISON OF TOTAL ANNUALIZED COSTS  OF  A NEW  COAL PLANT AND
         OPERATING COSTS OF AN  EXISTING OIL  PLANT

                         (Mills/Kwh)
                       (Mid-year  1979  $)


                    Existing Oil           New Coal

Annualized
 Capital Costs          0                    13.0   I/

Fuel Costs 2/        32.2                    13.0

Operating and
  Maintenance          .5                     4.7
                     32.7                    30.7
_!/  Assumes a capital cost  for  the  coal  plant  of  $740/kw
    of capacity.

2/  Assumes oil cost of  $.20/bbl  and coal cost  of  $30/ton.

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                        TABLE  III
COMPARISON OF ANNUALIZED COSTS  OF  AN  OIL PLANT CONVERTED
TO COAL WITH THE OPERATING  COSTS OF AN  EXISTING OIL PLANT
           AT VARIOUS OIL AND COAL COSTS
                                    High Cost
         Existing                    Coal
        Oil Plant                 Converted Plant
Oil Cost                       Coal  Costs
($/Bbl)       Mills/Kwh*       ($/ton)         Mills/Kwh
$10             16.6              23            24.8
 12             19.3              25            25.8
 14             23.0              27.6          26.8
 16             26.3              30            27.8
 18             29.5              32.2          2B.8
 20             32.7              34.5          29.8
 22             35.4
 24             39.2
   Based on 5.8 million  Btu/Bbl  of  oil and 23 million Btu/ton
   of coal

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                  TABLE  IV

COAL CONVERSION CAPITAL  COSTS  AND  OPERATING SAVINGS
             FOR A  500 MEGAWATT  PLANT
                    (Million  $)
Annual
Capital Operating
Cost Savings
Low Cost
Conversion I/ $47.5 48.4
High Cost
Conversion I/ 235.0 46.1
New Coal
Plant 2/ 370.0 41.3
Present
of Opera
Savings
412.0
392.0
403.9
   I/ Assumes 20 year  remaining  life  on plant.

   _2/ Assumes 40 year  coal  plant life.

   V Calculated at>a  10  percent discount rate,

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                                    TABLE V.
                        COMPARISON OF TWO UTILITY  COST
                        ALLOCATION METHODS  FOR  A $1000
                        INVESTMENT WITH A 20  YEAR  LIFE1/
               fl|50
               350
                                         Declining Rate Method
                        Ir tere
                        D«prec
                              nn
st
la
                                ja
ti
on
                                    Le
             :ity
                                                Charge
                      f ,'Z 5 H- 5"  L 7  ? 1 (0 II IZ 13 |M 15 It, H 13 |1 20
I/ Assumes  10%
Tnterest  rate.
                                          Level Rate Method
                             Annual Electricity Charge
                                         Capital Repayment
                     /  i  3.

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