Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model
Application & Calculation of Nutrient
& Sediment Loadings
Appendix A:
Phase IV Chesapeake
Bay Watershed
Model Hydrology
Calibration
Results
EPA Report Collection
Regional Center for Environmental Information
U.S. EPA Region III
Philadelphia, PA 19103
Prepared by the
Modeling Subcomittee
of the
Chesapeake Bay Program
EPA 903-R-98-004
CBP/TRS 196/98
February 19QS
Pnmafl with Soy/Canoia Ink on paperthat
eomans at least 50% recycled a»f
Chesapeake Bay Program
-------
U.S. EPA Region III
Regional Center for Environmental
Information
1650 Arch Street (3PM52)
Philadelphia, PA 19103
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED MODEL
APPLICATION AND CALCULATION OF
NUTRIENT AND SEDIMENT LOADINGS
Appendix A: Phase IV Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model
Hydrology Calibration Results
A Report of the
Chesapeake Bay Program
Modeling Subcommittee
Annapolis, MD
February 1998
Printed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the Chesapeake Bay Program
-------
Principal Authors
Kelly A. Greene
United States Department of Commerce
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Annapolis, MD
Lewis C. Linker
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Chesapeake Bay Program Office
Annapolis, MD
-------
Modeling Subcommittee Members
James R. Collier, Chairman of the
Subcommittee,
Program Manager
Water Resources Management Division
Washington, DC
Dr. Joseph Bachman
US Geological Survey
Towson, MD
Mark Bennett
Department of Soil and Water Conservation
Richmond, VA
Dr. Peter Bergstrom
Chesapeake Bay Field Office
US Fish & Wildlife Service
Annapolis, MD
Dr. Arthur Butt
Chesapeake Bay Office
VA Department of Environmental Quality
Richmond, VA
Brian Hazelwood
Metropolitan Washington Council of
Governments
Washington, DC
Dr. Albert Y. Kuo
VA Institute of Marine Science
Gloucester Point, VA
Lewis C. Linker, Coordinator of the
Subcommittee
US EPA Chesapeake Bay Program Office
Annapolis, MD
Alan Lumb
Hydrologic Analysis Support Section
USGS National Center MS 415
Reston. VA
Dr. Robert Magnien
MD Department of Natural Resources
Assessment Administration
Annapolis, MD
Dr. Ross Mandel
Interstate Commission on the Potomac
River Basin
Rockville, MD
Dr. Bruce Parker
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration/NOS/OES33
Coastal & Estuarine Oceanography Branch
Silver Spring, MD
Kenn Pattison
PA Department of Environmental Protection
Bureau of Water Quality Protection
Harrisburg, PA
Ron Santos
US Army Corps of Engineers
Baltimore, MD
Tom Stockton
MD Department of Environmental Resources
Watershed Modeling & Analysis Division
Annapolis, MD
Paul Welle
USDA Soil Conservation Service
Northeast National Technical Center
Chester, PA
-------
LIST OF PHASE IV WATERSHED MODEL REFERENCE APPENDICES
Appendix A Phase IV Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model Hydrology Calibration Results
Appendix B Phase IV Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model Water Quality Calibration
Appendix C Phase IV Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model Nonpoint Source Simulation
Appendix D Phase IV Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model Precipitation and Meteorological
Data Development and Atmospheric Nutrient Deposition
Appendix E Phase IV Chesapeake Bay Watershed Land Use & Model Linkages to the Airshed
& Estuarine Models
Appendix F Phase IV Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model Point Source Loads and Water
Supply Diversions
Appendix G Observed Water Quality Data Used for Calibration, A Simulation of Regression
Loads, and a Confirmation Scenario of the Phase IV Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Model
Appendix H Development of BMP Input Parameters To Track Nutrient Reduction Goals with
the Phase IV Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model
-------
Acknowledgments
This is to acknowledge the substantial contribution of the United States Geological Survey
offices of Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia for their timely processing of
seemingly endless data requests. The scientists, engineers, and managers of the Modeling
Subcommittee and the Model Evaluation Group are acknowledged for their guidance and review.
This document and other Chesapeake Bay Program modeling documents can be found on the
Modeling Subcommittee web page:
http://www.chesapeakebay.net/bayprogram/committ/mdsc/model.htni
-------
APPENDIX SUMMARY
Appendix A documents in detail the Phase IV Watershed Model hydrology calibration. The
results are presented as plots and statistical tables that compare the simulaivted and observed
flows for the 8 years of calibration (1984-1991) for 17 flow calibration stations of the
Chesapeake Bay. Specifically, this appendix includes the following plots: (1) Observed and
Simulated Flows; (2) Actual Error of the Flow; (3) Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows;
(4) Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population; (5) Paired Frequency Distribution of
Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population; and (6) Scatter Plot and
Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line. The appendix also contains the
following statistical tables: (1) Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flows; (2)
Comparison of Daily and Average Monthly Total Flow Observed and Simulated Regressions;
and (3) Average Seasonal Regressions. Regression statistics include r-squared, intercept, and
slope statistics for the entire data set, on an annual basis, on a seasonal basis..
The daily observed and simulated flow plots generally show good to excellent agreement
between the model and data. The differences are mainly attributable to storm events and high-
flow, snow-melt events of the spring freshet.
The observed and simulated cumulative flows vs. time show both under and over estimation
relative to the observed flow, but no particular bias for any of these stations.
The actual error plots generally display a flat curve around 0 cubic feet per second (cfs) and a
sigmoidal shape indicating the errors are normally distributed. A sigmoidal plot centered on
50% of the population indicates a lack of bias in the simulation.
The frequency distribution of paired simulated and observed flow plotted against percentile of
sample population show good agreement, with the greatest differences between simulated and
observed during very high flows (95th percentile or higher) or very low flows (5th percentile or
lower). Note that in the scatter plots the ideal line is drawn (slope = 1, intercept = 0) as a point of
reference for the flow data and that the flow regression statistics are displayed. As a point of
comparison, the tabular regression statistics are for the log flow regression and the regression
statistics displayed on the scatter plot are for untransformed flow data.
-------
Table of Contents
Section Page
A. 1.0 Susquehanna River Basin
A. 1.1 East Branch Susquehanna River 7
A. 1.2 West Branch Susquehanna River 17
A. 1.3 Juniata River 27
A. 1.4 Lower Susquehanna River 37
A. 1.5 Susquehanna River at Conowingo Dam 47
A.2.0 Patuxent River Basin 58
A.3.0 Potomac River Basin
A.3.1 Upper Potomac River 68
A.3.2 Shenandoah River 77
A.3.3 Lower Potomac River 87
A.4.0 Rappahannock River Basin 98
A.5.0 York River Basin
A. 5.1 Mattaponi River 108
A.5.2 Pamunkey River 117
A.6.0 James River Basin
A.6.1 James River 128
A.6.2 Appomattox River 137
A.7.0 Nanticoke River Basin 148
A.8.0 Choptank River Basin 157
A. 9.0 Patapsco River Basin 168
VI
-------
List of Figures
Figure Page
A. 1 Monitoring Stations in Chesapeake Bay Watershed Phase IV 7
Model Segments: Susquehanna River Basin
A.2 Monitoring Stations in Chesapeake Bay Watershed Phase IV 57
Model Segments: Patuxent River Basin
A.3 Monitoring Stations in Chesapeake Bay Watershed Phase IV 67
Model Segments: Potomac River Basin
A.4 Monitoring Stations in Chesapeake Bay Watershed Phase IV 97
Model Segments: Rappahannock River Basin
A.5 Monitoring Stations in Chesapeake Bay Watershed Phase IV 107
Model Segments: York River Basin
A.6 Monitoring Stations in Chesapeake Bay Watershed Phase IV 127
Model Segments: James River Basin
A.7 Monitoring Stations in Chesapeake Bay Watershed Phase IV 147
Model Segments: Eastern Shore Maryland Basin
A.9 Monitoring Stations in Chesapeake Bay Watershed Phase IV 167
Model Segments: Western Shore Maryland Basin
vn
-------
List of Tables
Table Page
A Characteristics of Stations used in Hydrology Calibration. 3
East Branch Susquehanna River
A. 1.1.1 Comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows. 15
A. 1.1.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow 15
daily and monthly r-squared.
A. 1.1.3 Seasonal r-squared. 16
West Branch Susquehanna River
A. 1.2.1 Comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows. 25
A. 1.2.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow 25
daily and monthly r-squared.
A. 1.2.3 Seasonal r-squared. 26
Juniata River
A.I.3.1 Comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows. 35
A. 1.3.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow 35
daily and monthly r-squared.
A. 1.3.3 Seasonal r-squared. 36
Lower Susquehanna River
A. 1.4.1 Comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows. 45
A. 1.4.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow 45
daily and monthly r-squared.
A. 1.4.3 Seasonal r-squared. 46
Susquehanna River at Conowingo. Maryland
A. 1.5.1 Comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows. 55
Vlll
-------
A. 1.5.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow 55
daily and monthly r-squared.
A. 1.5.3 Seasonal r-squared. 56
Patuxent River
A.2.1.1 Comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows. 65
A.2.1.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow 65
daily and monthly r-squared.
A.2.1.3 Seasonal r-squared. 66
Upper Potomac River
A.3.1.1 Comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows. 75
A.3.1.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow 75
daily and monthly r-squared.
A.3.1.3 Seasonal r-squared. 76
Shenandoah River
A.3.2.1 Comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows. 85
A.3.2.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow 85
daily and monthly r-squared.
A.3.2.3 Seasonal r-squared. 86
Lower Potomac River
A.3.3.1 Comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows. 95
A.3.3.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow 95
daily and monthly r-squared.
A.3.3.3 Seasonal r-squared. 96
Rappahannock River
A.4.1.1 Comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows. 105
A.4.1.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow 105
daily and monthly r-squared.
IX
-------
A.4.1.3 Seasonal r-squared. 106
Mattaponi River
A.5.1.1 Comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows. 115
A.5.1.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow 115
daily and monthly r-squared.
A.5.1.3 Seasonal r-squared. 116
Pamunkey River
A. 5.2.1 Comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows. 125
A.5.2.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow 125
daily and monthly r-squared.
A.5.2.3 Seasonal r-squared. 126
James River
A.6.1.1 Comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows. 135
A.6.1.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow 135
daily and monthly r-squared.
A.6.1.3 Seasonal r-squared. 136
Appomattox River
A.6.2.1 Comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows. 145
A.6.2.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow 145
daily and monthly r-squared.
A.6.2.3 Seasonal r-squared. 146
Nanticoke River
A.7.1.1 Comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows. 155
A.7.1.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow 155
daily and monthly r-squared.
A.7.1.3 Seasonal r-squared. 156
-------
Choptank River
A.8.0.1 Comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows. 165
A.8.0.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow 165
daily and monthly r-squared.
A.8.0.3 Seasonal r-squared. 166
Patapsco River
A.9.0.1 Comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows. 175
A.9.0.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow 175
daily and monthly r-squared.
A.9.0.3 Seasonal r-squared. 176
XI
-------
Major Basins of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed
LOCATION MAP
OF THE
Chesapeake Bay Watershed
NY,PA,MD,D.C.,DE,
WVANDVA
Susquehanna River Basin
Potomac River Basin
Western Shore Maryland
j__J Patuxent River Basin
Western Shore Virginia
Rappahannock River Basin
York River Basin
Eastern Shore Maryland
Eastern Shore Virginia
James River Basin
KJH Map Dae- January 1998
Source: U.S. E.P.A. Chesapeake Bay Program
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Monitoring Stations
Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Phase IV Model Segments:
Susquehanna River Basin
Figure A
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN
OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED
KAG Map Date: January 1998
Source: USGS and Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Team
-------
A.1.1 EAST BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA RTVER NEAR DANVILLE, PA AT
SEGMENT 40 (1540500)
Observed and Simulated versus Date
Actual Error versus Date
Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows (CF) 1984-1991
Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population
Frequency Distribution-Pair, Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population
Scatter Plot and Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated
Average Daily and Monthly Regressions for 1984-1991
Average Seasonal Regressions for 1984-1991
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CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
EAST BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA RIVER, PA (Segments 10,20, 700,30, and 40)
Table A. 1.1.1 Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated flows.
Year
1984
1985 .
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mean
Observed Flow
(inches)*
22.64
13.59
21.02
15.59
12.87
18.10
23.93
14.62
17.80
Simulated Flow
(inches)**
20.94
13.16
20.93
16.27
14.08
18.91
23.50
15.46
17.91
*
**
Observed flow from Susquehanna River near Danville, PA
Simulated outflow from RCH 40
Table A. 1.1.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow daily and monthly r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Average Daily
m
0.92
0.90
0.81
0.94
1.03
1.08
0.93
0.94
0.94
b
0.36
0.40
0.80
0.22
-0.18
-0.40
0.27
0.20
0.21
r2
0.86
0.85
0.73
0.90
0.88
0.85
0.85
0.96
0.86
Average Monthly
m
0.91
0.90
0.82
0.94
1.08
1.07
0.98
0.97
0.96
b
11.80
11.98
23.50
6.65
-11.61
-11.86
2.41
3.66
4.57
r2
0.88
0.88
0.84
0.96
0.93
0.90
0.96
0.98
0.92
-------
Table A. 1.1.3 Seasonal r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Season 1
m
1.23
1.00
0.61
0.97
0.71
0.47
0.73
0.78
0.78
b
-1.14
-0.22
1.55
0.03
1.09
1.98
1.17
0.93
1.01
r2
0.96
0.76
0.32
0.56
0.63
0.32
0.75
0.63
0.69
Season 2
m
0.87
0.91
0.76
0.91
0.78
0.98
0.85
0.76
0.90
b
0.61
0.35
1.02
0.34
0.95
-0.02
0.62
1.03
0.46
r2
0.82
0.91
0.77
0.86
0.66
0.69
0.41
0.81
0.77
Season 3
m
1.14
0.79
1.63
1.04
1.20
1.35
1.20
1.00
0.80
b
-0.52
0.79
-2.27
-0.14
-0.82
-1.42
-0.75
-0.02
0.74
r2
0.94
0.69
0.89
0.87
0.93
0.96
0.88
0.89
0.89
Season 4
m
0.98
1.20
0.82
1.21
0.93
1.13
0.97
0.85
0.90
b
0.24
-0.71
0.85
-0.87
0.15
-0.56
0.15
0.56
0.37
r2
0.83
0.91
0.87
0.79
0.85
0.89
0.82
0.94
0.85
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
-------
A.1.2 WEST BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT LEWISBURG, PA SEGMENT 70 (1553500)
Observed and Simulated versus Date
Actual Error versus Date
Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows (CF) 1984-1991
Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population
Frequency Distribution-Pair, Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population
Scatter Plot and Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated
Average Daily and Monthly Regressions for 1984-1991
Average Seasonal Regressions for 1984-1991
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CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
WEST BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA RIVER, PA (Segments 50,60, and 70)
Table A.1.2.1 Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated flows..
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mean
Observed Flow
(inches)*
29,02
19.23
23.83
18.38
15.26
21.34
27.52
15.22
21.23
Simulated Flow
(inches)**
26.75
17.55
22.66
17.94
15.46
21.35
26.47
16.16
20.54
*
**
Observed flow from West Branch Susquehanna River at Lewisburg, PA
Simulated outflow from RCH 70
Table A. 1.2.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow daily and monthly r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Average Daily
m
0.86
0.94
0.84
0.76
0.81
0.81
0.89
0.99
0.86
b
0.54
0.18
0.61
0.91
0.77
0.80
0.43
0.07
0.54
r2
0.84
0.86
0.78
0.63
0.79
0.88
0.77
0.85
0.80
Average Monthly
m
0.00
1.00
0.84
0.99
0.83
0.75
0.90
1.00
0.79
b
3.90
-0.05
0.63
0.02
0.68
1.04
0.41
0.02
0.83
r2
0.00
0.88
0.78
0.99
0.81
0.90
0.75
0.87
0.75
-------
Table A. 1.2.3 Seasonal r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Season 1
m
0.98
0.91
0.95
0.08
0.79
0.72
0.66
0.95
0.75
b
-0.04
0.31
0.23
3.46
0.76
1.00
1.42
0.18
1.05
r2
0.75
0.79
0.44
0.00
0.61
0.64
0.74
0.53
0.63
Season 2
m
0.66
0.85
0.73
0.69
0.62
1.05
0.76
0.70
1.02
b
1.52
0.74
1.18
1.41
1.62
-0.16
1.00
1.28
-0.19
r2
0.55
0.96
0.82
0.74
0.66
0.85
0.52
0.87
0.77
Season 3
m
1.06
0.98
1.10
0.85
0.91
1.12
0.90
0.69
0.95
b
-0.29
0.18
-0.38
0.49
0.19
-0.54
0.38
1.04
0.22
r2
0.89
0.64
0.80
0.84
0.82
0.95
0.78
0.46
0.87
Season 4
m
0.95
1.01
1.14
1.03
1.07
0.82
1.09
0.85
0.87
b
0.23
-0.14
-0.65
-0.19
-0.44
0.51
-0.40
0.30
0.59
r2
0.95
0.97
0.93
0.82
0.90
0.79
0.90
0.91
0.90
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
-------
A.1.3 JUNIATA RIVER AT NEWPORT, PA AT SEGMENT 100 (1567000)
Observed and Simulated versus Date
Actual Error versus Date
Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows (CF) 1984-1991
Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population
Frequency Distribution-Pair, Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population
Scatter Plot and Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated
Average Daily and Monthly Regressions for 1984-1991
Average Seasonal Regressions for 1984-1991
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CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
JUNIATA RIVER, PA (Segments 90 and 100)
Table A.l.3.1 Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated flows.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mean
Observed Flow
(inches)*
20.44
15.84
16.03
14.40
12.68
20.98
18.93
13.57
16.61
Simulated Flow
(inches)**
19.44
14.39
14.91
14.02
12.52
22.00
16.94
11.81
15.75
**
Observed flow from Juniata River near Newport, PA
Simulated outflow from RCH 100
Table A. 1.3.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow daily and monthly r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Average Daily
m
0.88
0.97
1.00
0.84
0.93
0.77
0.82
1.12
0.92
b
0.38
0.05
-0.05
0.55
0.24
0.88
0.60
-0.53
0.27
r2
0.88
0.86
0.85
0.79
0.79
0.86
0.80
0.92
0.84
Average Monthly
m
0.92
1.03
1.08
0.99
1.00
0.73
0.81
1.16
0.97
b
0.27
-0.17
-0.34
0.01
-0.02
1.00
0.63
-0.66
0.09
r2
0.94
0.91
0.90
1.00
0.87
0.95
0.82
0.95
0.92
-------
Table A. 1.3.3 Seasonal r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Season 1
m
1.19
0.77
1.18
-0.04
0.85
0.65
0.79
0.70
0.69
b
-0.79
0.73
-0.75
3.68
0.44
1.19
0.83
1.14
1.19
r2
0.80
0.63
0.70
-0.01
0.54
0.42
0.63
0.60
0.62
Season 2
m
0.72
0.93
0.86
0.78
0.89
1.02
0.80
0.77
0.90
b
1.12
0.40
0.56
0.90
0.43
-0.02
0.81
0.95
0.26
r2
0.71
0.81
0.79
0.74
0.72
0.87
0.34
0.80
0.76
Season 3
m
1.25
0.83
1.26
0.82
0.71
1.11
1.20
0.46
0.96
b
-0.84
0.55
-0.59
0.55
0.88
-0.47
-0.66
1.66
0.09
r2
0.92
0.83
0.87
0.71
0.45
0.90
0.88
0.51
0.83
Season 4
m
0.90
0.81
0.89
1.09
0.67
1.04
0.98
0.55
1.08
b
0.34
0.72
0.38
-0.33
1.09
-0.26
0.05
1.48
-0.30
r2
0.90
0.92
0.95
0.91
0.87
0.80
0.87
0.78
0.87
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
-------
A.1.4 LOWERSUSQUEHANNARTVERATHARRISBURG,PA SEGMENT 710 (1570500)
Observed and Simulated versus Date
Actual Error versus Date
Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows (CF) 1984-1991
Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population
Frequency Distribution-Pair, Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population
Scatter Plot and Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated
Average Daily and Monthly Regressions for 1984-1991
Average Seasonal Regressions for 1984-1991
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CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER, PA (Segments 10,20,30,40,50,60,
70,80,90, and 100)
Table A. 1.4.1 Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated flows.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mean
Observed Flow
(inches)*
23.6
14.81
19.96
15.58
13.02
18.92
23.33
13.97
17.90
Simulated Flow
(inches)**
24.5
15.31
21.49
17.17
14.91
21.49
24.62
15.52
19.38
**
Observed flow Susquehanna River at Harrisburg, PA
Simulated outflow from RCH 710
Table A. 1.4.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow daily and monthly r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Average Daily
m
0.90
0.97
0.91
0.92
0.85
0.80
0.85
1.05
0.91
b
0.46
0.13
0.37
0.35
0.70
0.96
0.70
-0.25
0.43
r2
0.91
0.89
0.84
0.88
0.88
0.90
0.81
0.95
0.88
Average Monthly
m
0.90
1.05
0.99
1.00
0.88
0.78
0.90
1.07
0.95
b
0.43
-0.26
0.03
0.00
0.55
1.05
0.47
-0.33
0.24
r2
0.96
0.95
0.91
1.00
0.91
0.94
0.92
0.97
0.95
-------
Table A. 1.4.3 Seasonal r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Season 1
m
0.83
0.81
0.56
0.54
0.65
0.52
0.95
0.70
0.74
b
0.86
0.96
2.02
2.06
1.70
2.20
0.22
1.45
1.25
r2
0.88
0.76
0.52
0.34
0.70
0.44
0.77
0.66
0.75
Season 2
m
0.87
0.98
1.03
0.99
0.89
0.77
0.49
1.13
0.93
b
0.55
0.04
-0.16
0.00
0.45
1.10
2.32
-0.70
0.27
r2
0.71
0.90
0.81
0.79
0.68
0.85
0.41
0.83
0.78
Season 3
m
0.83
0.81
0.67
0.97
0.86
0.79
0.75
0.94
0.93
b
0.75
0.69
1.32
0.13
0.62
0.93
1.09
0.16
0.28
r2
0.92
0.75
0.88
0.91
0.87
0.96
0.75
0.84
0.90
Season 4
m
0.94
0.89
0.95
0.66
0.97
0.85
0.80
1.22
0.93
b
0.20
0.50
0.21
1.55
0.22
0.73
0.95
-0.84
0.34
r2
0.92
0.94
0.94
0.98
0.89
0.86
0.82
0.95
0.91
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
-------
A.1.5 SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONOWEVGO, MD AT SEGMENT 140 (1578310)
Observed and Simulated versus Date
Actual Error versus Date
Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows (CF) 1984-1991
Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population
Frequency Distribution-Pair, Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population
Scatter Plot and Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated
Average Daily and Monthly Regressions for 1984-1991
Average Seasonal Regressions for 1984-1991
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CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
CONOWINGO RESERVOIR, MD (Segments 10,20 ,30,40,50, 60,70,
80,90,100,110,120,140,710, and 720)
Table A.I.5.1 Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated flows.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mean
Observed Flow
(inches)*
25.01
15.27
20.66
16.16
13.64
19.97
24.21
14.86
18.72
Simulated Flow
(inches)**
20.53
13.83
19.53
15.77
13.53
19.59
22.27
14.08
17.39
**
Observed flow from Susquehanna River at Conowingo, MD
Simulated outflow from RCH 140
Table A.I .5.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow daily and monthly r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Average Daily
m
0.51
0.91
0.95
0.93
0.92
0.86
0.96
1.05
0.89
b
2.19
0.37
0.16
0.27
0.35
0.63
0.12
-0.28
0.48
r2
0.32
0.82
0.77
0.81
0.71
0.75
0.72
0.85
0.72
Average Monthly
m
0.91
1.02
1.02
0.93
0.93
0.84
0.98
1.12
0.99
b
0.36
-0.12
-0.18
0.28
0.29
0.72
-0.03
-0.58
0.02
r2
0.96
0.93
0.93
0.92
0.91
0.94
0.93
0.97
0.94
-------
Table A. 1.5.3 Seasonal r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Season 1
m
0.84
0.92
0.77
0.66
0.88
0.87
0.59
0.87
0.78
b
0.80
0.26
1.08
1.47
0.48
0.46
1.97
0.63
1.02
r2
0.70
0.78
0.56
0.53
0.66
0.43
0.78
0.67
0.68
Season 2
m
0.80
0.70
0.70
0.68
0.53
0.91
0.42
0.65
0.99
b
1.07
1.46
1.45
1.53
2.21
0.44
2.71
1.68
-0.03
r2
0.71
0.72
0.73
0.77
0.52
0.74
0.28
0.77
0.68
Season 3
m
1.01
0.84
0.79
0.82
0.76
0.98
0.57
0.41
0.93
b
-0.02
0.72
0.99
0.77
0.97
0.09
1.91
2.23
0.23
r2
0.89
0.59
0.49
0.79
0.67
0.85
0.55
0.36
0.76
Season 4
m
0.91
0.94
0.80
0.74
0.57
0.64
0.80
0.54
1.00
b
0.45
0.33
0.95
1.14
1.78
1.54
0.98
1.88
-0.03
r2
0.81
0.86
0.89
0.55
0.64
0.67
0.74
0.68
0.74
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
-------
Monitoring Stations
Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Phase IV Model Segments:
Patuxent River Basin
Figure A.2
PATUXENT RIVER BASIN
OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED
KAG Map Date: January 1998
Source: USGS and Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Team
-------
A.2.1 PATUXENT RIVER AT BOWIE, MD AT SEGMENT 340 (1594440)
Observed and Simulated versus Date
Actual Error versus Date
Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows (CF) 1984-1991
Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population
Frequency Distribution-Pair, Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population
Scatter Plot and Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated
Average Daily and Monthly Regressions for 1984-1991
Average Seasonal Regressions for 1984-1991
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CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
PATUXENT RIVER, MD (Segments 330 and 340)
A.2.1.1 Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated flows.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mean
Observed Flow
(inches)*
17.12
8.41
8.42
11.39
11.93
18.57
14.59
10.64
12.63
Simulated Flow
(inches)**
16.82
9.13
8.77
12.73
12.14
24.4
13.24
9.38
13.33
*Observed flow at Patuxent River near Bowie, MD
**Simulated outflow from RCH 340
Table A.2.1.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow daily and monthly r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Average Daily
m
0.80
0.89
0.79
0.81
0.73
0.86
0.67
0.72
0.78
b
0.51
0.29
0.49
0.49
0.68
0.48
0.78
0.60
0.54
r2
0.70
0.71
0.63
0.64
0.70
0.71
0.66
0.67
0.68
Average Monthly
m
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.91
0.69
1.14
0.62
0.79
0.91
b
0.21
0.16
0.12
0.26
0.75
-0.24
0.92
0.45
0.24
r2
0.92
0.88
0.88
0.83
0.87
0.89
0.84
0.93
0.87
-------
Table A.2.1.3 Seasonal r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Season 1
m
0.85
1.19
0.75
p.65
1.07
0.80
0.93
1.03
0.57
b
0.40
-0.49
0.56
0.79
-0.16
0.46
0.23
0.00
1.11
r2
0.42
0.75
0.28
0.31
0.67
0.53
0.55
0.62
0.53
Season 2
m
0.79
0.62
0.83
0.79
0.80
0.83
0.81
1.10
0.84
b
0.62
0.86
0.45
0.53
0.57
0.42
0.59
-0.16
0.39
r2
0.55
0.67
0.73
0.38
0.57
0.61
0.57
0.75
0.73
Season 3
m
0.66
0.60
0.46
0.76
0.78
0.75
1.03
0.42
0.94
b
0.81
0.82
1.04
0.50
0.35
0.50
-0.15
1.12
0.22
r2
0.52
0.69
0.45
0.67
0.63
0.76
0.80
0.16
0.72
Season 4
m
0.68
0.82
0.80
0.91
0.79
0.85
0.84
0.57
0.82
b
0.74
0.37
0.38
0.15
0.45
0.26
0.44
0.98
0.44
r2
0.48
0.70
0.74
0.50
0.71
0.62
0.57
0.26
0.62
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
-------
Monitoring Stations
Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Phase IV Mcxiel Segments:
Potomac River Basin
160
175
740
730
180
750
210
170
200
220
550
540
900^
190
KAG Map Date: January 1998
980 I
POTOMAC RIVER BASIN
OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED
920
Source: USGS and Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Team
fi7
-------
A.3.1 UPPER POTOMAC RIVER AT HANCOCK, MD AT SEGMENT 175 (1613000)
Observed and Simulated versus Date
Actual Error versus Date
Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows (CF) 1984-1991
Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population
Frequency Distribution-Pair, Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population
Scatter Plot and Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated
Average Daily and Monthly Regressions for 1984-1991
Average Seasonal Regressions for 1984-1991
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CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
UPPER POTOMAC RIVER, MD (Segments 160,170 and 175)
Table A.3.1.1 Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated flows.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mean
Observed Flow
(inches)*
18.19
17.3
11.35
13.47
11.07
15.59
12.33
11.08
13.80
Simulated Flow
(inches)**
18.69
18.67
11.48
13.26
11.04
18.5
14.83
9.97
14.56
*Observed flow at Upper Potomac River at Hancock, MD
**Simulated outflow from RCH 175
Table A.3.1.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow daily and monthly r-squared
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Average Daily
m
0.66
0.74
0.82
0.56
0.72
0.74
0.82
0.82
0.74
b
1.25
0.97
0.65
1.59
1.00
0.98
0.64
0.59
0.96
r2
0.59
0.69
0.80
0.57
0.74
0.50
0.52
0.82
0.65
Average Monthly
m
0.51
0.70
0.85
0.54
0.63
0.62
0.58
0.84
0.71
b
1.76
1.09
0.58
1.63
1.27
1.41
1.47
0.53
1.03
r2
0.70
0.86
0.94
0.78
0.90
0.65
0.48
0.94
0.82
-------
Table A.3.1.3 Seasonal r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Season 1
m
0.92
0.69
1.10
0.42
0.90
0.73
0.34
0.72
0.74
b
0.47
1.05
-0.47
2.00
0.32
0.94
2.48
0.09
0.92
r2
0.80
0.44
0.64
0.31
0.64
0.49
0.25
0.39
0.45
Season 2
m
0.85
0.88
1.03
1.03
0.91
0.81
0.57
0.89
0.89
b
0.62
0.51
-0.10
0.06
0.38
0.78
1.56
0.43
0.30
r2
0.72
0.71
0.86
0.79
0.82
0.70
0.48
0.75
0.73
Season 3
m
0.83
1.07
0.70
0.91
1.15
0.86
0.72
0.53
0.87
b
0.33
-0.42
0.86
0.04
-0.65
0.33
0.79
1.32
0.61
r2
0.80
0.82
0.59
0.83
0.62
0.68
0.56
0.59
0.71
Season 4
m
0.89
0.98
0.72
1.03
0.78
0.55
0.78
0.61
0.95
b
0.18
0.02
0.92
-0.19
0.66
1.46
0.66
1.24
0.25
r2
0.68
0.85
0.84
0.74
0.76
0.47
0.75
0.79
0.74
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
7ft
-------
A.3.2 SHENANDOAH RIVER AT MILLVILLE, WV AT SEGMENT 200
(1636500)
Observed and Simulated versus Date
Actual Error versus Date
Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows (CF) 1984-1991
Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population
Frequency Distribution-Pair, Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population
Scatter Plot and Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated
Average Daily and Monthly Regressions for 1984-1991
Average Seasonal Regressions for 1984-1991
-------
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CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
SHENANDOAH RIVER, VA (Segments 190 and 200)
Table A.3.2.1 Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated flows.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mean
Observed Flow
(inches)*
17.73
12.93
6.88
13.88
7.69
11.96
11.52
10.45
11.63
Simulated Flow
(inches)**
19.25
14.55
7.00
12.18
6.78
13.20
13.86
10.09
12.11
**
Observed flow at Shenandoah River at Millville, WV
Simulated outflow from RCH 200
Table A.3.2.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow daily and monthly r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Average Daily
m
0.72
0.84
0.98
0.82
0.72
0.90
0.71
0.94
0.83
b
1.05
0.58
0.05
0.55
0.87
0.38
1.03
0.17
0.59
r2
0.74
0.76
0.87
0.76
0.88
0.66
0.58
0.83
0.76
Average Monthly
m
0.60
0.88
1.01
0.98
0.72
1.06
0.49
0.95
0.87
b
1.44
0.44
-0.05
0.67
0.89
-0.15
1.76
0.12
0.44
r2
0.82
0.80
0.91
0.87
0.92
0.72
0.44
0.87
0.81
-------
Table A.3.2.3 Seasonal r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Season 1
m
0.68
0.91
1.56
0.44
1.06
1.30
0.81
1.09
0.84
b
1.31
0.27
-1.98
1.87
-0.17
-0.81
0.69
0.28
0.54
r2
0.81
0.64
0.78
0.20
0.65
0.67
0.53
0.65
0.76
Season 2
m
0.89
1.06
0.97
0.88
1.31
0.82
0.71
0.96
0.95
b
0.49
-0.14
0.18
0.63
-0.89
0.78
1.05
0.20
0.05
r2
0.83
0.41
0.84
0.78
0.90
0.84
0.48
0.80
0.86
Season 3
m
0.64
1.10
1.00
0.95
1.68
0.75
0.85
0.80
1.02
b
0.96
-0.52
-0.11
0.04
-2.26
0.71
0.29
0.44
0.04
r2
0.73
0.60
0.71
0.80
0.83
0.56
0.48
0.74
0.76
Season 4
m
0.90
1.04
0.83
1.25
0.73
0.96
0.86
0.67
1.10
b
0.05
-0.29
0.45
-0.82
0.67
-0.02
0.34
0.88
-0.22
r2
0.6!
0.8!
0.9:
0.8*
0.41
0.6f
0.74
0.83
0.85
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
86
-------
A.3.3 LOWER POTOMAC RIVER AT CHAIN BRIDGE NEAR WASHINGTON
DC AT SEGMENT 220 (1646500)
Observed and Simulated versus Date
Actual Error versus Date
Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows (CF) 1984-1991
Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population
Frequency Distribution-Pair, Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population
Scatter Plot and Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated
Average Daily and Monthly Regressions for 1984-1991
Average Seasonal Regressions for 1984-1991
87
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CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
LOWER POTOMAC RIVER (Segments 180,210 and 220)
Table A.3.3.1 Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated flows.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mean
Observed Flow
(inches)*
19.38
13.58
9.55
13.47
10.26
14.04
12.27
10.89
12.93
Simulated Flow
(inches)**
19.41
14.22
8.76
11.38
8.85
14.40
12.83
8.22
12.26
*
**
Observed flow at Potomac River at Chain Bridge near Washington, D.C.
Simulated outflow from RCH 220
Table A.3.3.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow daily and monthly r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Average Daily
m
0.76
0.78
0.77
0.68
0.68
0.78
0.74
0.66
0.73
b
0.98
0.87
0.86
1.21
1.20
0.88
1.01
1.22
1.03
r2
0.70
0.74
0.87
0.72
0.78
0.63
0.56
0.80
0.73
Average Monthly
m
0.61
0.72
0.74
0.98
0.63
0.67
0.39
0.25
0.62
b
1.58
1.07
0.96
0.05
1.38
1.31
2.35
2.77
1.43
r2
0.82
0.77
0.92
0.99
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.44
-------
TableA.3.3.3 Seasonal r-sqaured.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989.
1990
1991
1984-1991
Season 1
m
1.37
0.79
0.82
0.89
0.20
0.84
0.65
0.91
0.79
b
-1.89
0.82
0.70
0.44
3.08
0.54
1.33
0.17
0.78
r2
0.88
0.69
0.90
0.39
0.22
0.69
0.26
0.69
0.65
Season 2
m
1.91
0.93
1.08
1.04
0.86
1.16
0.95
1.00
1.00
b
-1.03
0.07
-0.50
-0.47
0.41
-0.86
-0.04
-0.19
-0.18
r2
0.89
0.65
0.90
0.89
0.75
0.83
0.58
0.87
0.83
Season 3
m
1.32
0.78
0.54
0.82
0.48
0.81
0.86
0.54
0.83
b
-1.06
0.90
1.63
0.78
1.91
0.84
0.64
1.68
0.76
r2
0.82
0.83
0.72
0.77
0.61
0.68
0.66
0.46
0.79
Season 4
m
0.84
0.86
0.99
0.83
1.04
0.98
0.90
0.60
0.94
b
0.77
0.66
0.18
0.79
-0.02
0.23
0.47
1.35
0.32
r2
0.69
0.81
0.93
0.99
0.84
0.74
0.72
0.56
0.86
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
ac.
-------
Monitoring Stations
Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Phase IV Model Segments:
Rappahannock River
Figure A
RAPPAHANNOCK RTVER BASIN
OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED
KAG Map Date: January 1998
Source: USGS and Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Team
-------
A.4 RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER NEAR FREDERICKSBURG, VA AT SEGMENT 230 (1668000)
Observed and Simulated versus Date
Actual Error versus Date
Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows (CF) 1984-1991
Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population
Frequency Distribution-Pair, Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population
Scatter Plot and Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated
Average Daily and Monthly Regressions for 1984-1991
Average Seasonal Regressions for 1984-1991
-------
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CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER, VA (Segments 230)
Table A.4.1.1 Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated flows.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mean
Observed Flow
(inches)*
21.77
13.05
7.48
13.43
8.31
15.36
15.51
10.04
13.12
Simulated Flow
(inches)**
19.77
15.07
7.64
16.53
8.21
13.04
12.60
7.74
12.58
**
Observed flow at Rappahannock River near Fredericksburg, VA
Simulated outflow from RCH 230
Table A.4.1.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow daily and monthly r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Average Daily
m
0.85
0.72
0.57
0.87
0.59
0.89
0.55
0.71
0.72
b
0.44
0.85
1.20
0.47
1.24
0.27
1.30
0.77
0.82
r2
0.72
0.63
0.41
0.77
0.65
0.73
0.44
0.77
0.64
Average Monthly
m
0.85
0.66
0.53
0.90
0.54
1.18
0.06
0.71
0.68
b
0.43
1.03
1.31
0.38
1.37
-0.62
2.87
0.75
0.94
r2
0.79
0.58
0.39
0.78
0.70
0.86
0.10
0.82
0.63
-------
Table A.4.1.3 Seasonal r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Season 1
m
0.71
0.99
1.82
0.32
0.62
0.67
0.49
1.32
0.82
b
0.93
-0.06
-2.92
2.23
1.24
0.87
1.39
-1.20
0.47
r2
0.46
0.80
0.77
0.08
0.58
0.80
0.34
0.86
0.51
Season 2
m
1.05
0.65
1.06
1.01
1.02
0.90
0.89
0.95
1.04
b
0.36
0.76
-0.51
-0.09
-0.29
0.28
0.15
-0.13
-0.32
r2
0.89
0.18
0.84
0.81
0.77
0.80
0.59
0.78
0.77
Season 3
m
'0.92
0.78
0.27
0.96
0.59
0.80
0.39
0.60
0.72
b
0.22
0.77
1.94
0.23
1.26
0.51
1.81
1.03
0.85
r2
0.55
0.71
0.05
0.85
0.64
0.61
0.35
0.54
0.64
Season 4
m
0.97
0.73
1.19
0.90
0.87
1.06
0.87
0.81
0.82
b
0.10
1.05
-0.14
0.45
0.61
0.27
0.42
0.59
0.63
r2
0.76
0.78
0.93
0.75
0.73
0.61
0.60
0.83
0.76
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
i r\f>
-------
250
Monitoring Stations
Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Phase IV Model Segments:
York River Basin
235
Figure A.5
240
260
590
KAG J&p Date: January 1998
YORK RIVER BASIN
OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED
N
W
Source: USGS and Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Team
-------
A.5.1 MATTAPONI RIVER NEAR BEULAHVILLE, VA AT SEGMENT 240 (1674500)
Observed and Simulated versus Date
Actual Error versus Date
Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows (CF) 1984-1991
Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population
Frequency Distribution-Pair, Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population
Scatter Plot and Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated
Average Daily and Monthly Regressions for 1984-1991
Average Seasonal Regressions for 1984-1991
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-------
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
MATTAPONI RIVER, VA (Segments 235 and 240)
Table A.5.1.1 Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated flows.
*
**
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mean
Observed Flow
(inches)*
21.65
11.81
7.57
0.00
0.00
0.00
13.59
5.99
12.12
Simulated Flow
(inches)**
18.21
14.77
6.52
16.19
7.65
17.75
10.76
7.45
11.54+
Observed flow at Mattaponi River at Beulahville, VA
Simulated outflow from RCH 240
+ Using only 1984, 1985, 1986. 1990, and 1991 years.
Table A.5.1.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow daily and monthly r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Average Daily
m
1.05
0.83
0.82
0.94
0.00
1.05
0.93
0.65
0.78
b
-0.28
0.42
0.35
0.22
0.00
0.01
0.05
0.90
0.21
r2
0.76
0.56
0.83
0.80
0.00
0.99
0.83
0.67
0.68
Average Monthly
m
1.23
0.89
0.85
1.01
0.00
1.06
1.02
0.66
0.84
b
-0.78
0.27
0.28
0.02
0.00
0.00
-0.18
0.89
0.06
r2
0.89
0.57
0.89
0.99
0.00
1.00
0.92
0.71
0.75
115
-------
Table A.5.1.3 Seasonal r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Season 1
m
1.11
0.68
1.51
0.31
0.00
0.00
0.39
0.94
0.84
b
-0.23
0.78
1.60
2.51
0.00
0.00
1.72
0.27
0.44
r2
0.49
0.65
0.62
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.34
0.71
0.41
Season 2
m
0.99
1.16
0.67
0.90
0.00
0.00
0.72
1.01
1.09
b
-0.06
-0.72
0.70
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.63
-0.15
-0.40
r2
0.84
0.57
0.46
0.72
0.00
0.00
0.62
0.89
0.83
Season 3
m
0.57
0.77
0.73
1.12
0.00
0.99
1.03
0.65
0.64
b
0.90
0.65
0.51
-0.17
0.00
0.02
-0.16
1.04
0.83
r2
0.55
0.43
0.56
0.80
0.00
0.97
0.74
0.27
0.51
Season 4
m
0.87
0.74
0.94
0.00
0.00
0.37
0.94
0.79
0.90
b
0.01
0.93
0.16
0.00
0.00
1.87
0.02
0.49
0.26
r2
0.63
0.64
0.92
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.77
0.75
0.74
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
-------
A.5.2 PAMUNKEY RIVER NEAR HANOVER, VA AT SEGMENT 260
(1673000)
Observed and Simulated versus Date
Actual Error versus Date
Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows (CF) 1984-1991
Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population
Frequency Distribution-Pair, Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population
Scatter Plot and Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated
Average Daily and Monthly Regressions for 1984-1991
Average Seasonal Regressions for 1984-1991
1 1 7
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CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
PAMUNKEY RIVER, VA (Segments 250 and 260)
Table A.5.2.1 Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated flows.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mean
Observed Flow
(inches)*
20.59
13.95
7.80
14.71
8.17
14.76
14.17
7.13
12.66
Simulated Flow
(inches)**
18.55
15.66
6.35
16.55
7.39
17.92
11.44
8.09
12.74
* Observed flow at Pamunkey River at Hanover, VA
** Simulated outflow from RCH 260
Table A.5.2.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow daily and monthly r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Average Daily
m
0.92
0.81
0.68
0.73
0.55
0.78
0.65
0.64
0.72
b
0.20
0.53
0.76
0.81
1.21
0.75
0.96
1.04
0.78
r2
0.78
0.54
0.50
0.63
0.45
0.61
0.65
0.55
0.59
Average Monthly
' m
0.98
0.83
0.66
0.99
0.44
0.71
0.54
0.59
0.72
b
0.01
0.47
0.81
0.07
1.48
0.94
1.28
1.13
0.77
r2
0.91
0.44
0.49
0.97
0.39
0.59
0.75
0.57
0.64
125
-------
Table A.5.2.3 Seasonal r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Season 1
in
0.81
0.92
2.11
0.32
0.90
0.91
0.69
1.24
0.89
b
0.58
0.18
-3.63
2.19
0.23
0.28
0.82
-0.76
0.28
r2
0.69
0.74
0.86
0.05
0.77
0.75
0.51
0.75
0.53
Season 2
m
1.07
0.53
0.83
1.00
1.05
0.82
1:46
0.95
1.11
b
-0.37
0.89
0.11
0.19
-0.56
0.56
-0.73
-0.10
-0.60
r2
0.79
0.22
0.59
0.69
0.78
0.69
0.69
0.82
0.77
Season 3
m
0.86
0.83
0.62
0.98
0.56
0.85
0.84
0.78
0.81
b
0.30
0.61
0.92
0.29
1.17
0.63
0.57
0.81
0.62
r2
0.76
0.63
0.53
0.79
0.41
0.65
0.73
0.60
0.66
Season 4
m
0.89
0.63
1.08
0.67
1.17
0.57
0.72
1.00
0.80
b
0.29
1.35
0.01
1.47
-0.04
1.41
0.85
0.37
0.71
r2
0.64
0.61
0.88
0.88
0.81
0.23
0.62
0.79
0.70
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
126
-------
Monitoring Stations
Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Phase IV Model Segments:
James River Basin
300
,600
-------
A.6.1 JAMES RIVER AT CARTERSVILLE, VA AT SEGMENT 280 (2035000)
Observed and Simulated versus Date
Actual Error versus Date
Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows (CF) 1984-1991
Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population
Frequency Distribution-Pair, Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population
Scatter Plot and Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated
Average Daily and Monthly Regressions for 1984-1991
Average Seasonal Regressions for 1984-1991
1 98
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-------
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
JAMES RIVER, VA (Segments 265,270,280 and 290)
Table A.6.1.1 Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated flows..
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mean
Observed Flow
(inches)*
20.52
16.33
9.10
19.16
8.18
20.27
18.18
15.09
15.85
Simulated Flow
(inches)**
19.50
16.10
7.22
20.26
6.63
23.76
15.66
12.28
15.18
**
Observed flow at James River at Cartersville, VA
Simulated outflow from RCH 280
Table A.6.1.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow daily and monthly r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Average Daily
m
0.79
0.92
0.86
0.82
0.66
0.94
0.77
1.01
0.85
b
0.78
0.23
0.37
0.73
1.13
0.30
0.83
-0.12
0.53
r2
0.77
0.80
0.80
0.81
0.76
0.72
0.78
0.87
0.79
Average Monthly
m
0.72
0.96
0.94
1.00
0.68
1.15
0.63
1.04
0.89
b
1.06
0.09
0.10
0.03
1.06
-0.52
1.34
-0.24
0.37
r2
0.90
0.80
0.85
0.99
0.82
0.71
0.85
0.91
0.86
-------
Table A.6.1.3 Seasonal r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Season 1
m
0.93
0.68
0.73
0.67
0.75
0.78
0.83
0.88
0.81
b
0.16
1.20
0.91
1.37
0.86
0.72
0.56
0.42
0.68
r2
0.82
0.71
0.83
0.34
0.88
0.88
0.72
0.83
0.74
Season 2
m
0.94
0.88
0.80
0.91
0.78
0.88
1.22
0.99
1.04
b
0.13
0.20
0.49
0.27
0.60
0.42
-1.09
-0.14
-0.36
r2
0.81
0.67
0.71
0.83
0.66
0.84
0.77
0.87
0.85
Season 3
m
1.05
0.99
0.58
1.02
0.64
1.06
0.79
1.04
1.09
b
-0.10
0.02
1.23
0.07
1.19
-0.01
0.78
-0.13
-0.25
r2
0.68
0.81
0.70
0.84
0.76
0.80
0.93
0.84
0.83
Season 4
m
0.71
0.95
1.04
-0.62
0.71
0.96
0.93
1.26
1.02
b
1.08
0.26
-0.10
5.89
1.02
0.23
0.31
-1.05
-0.04
r2
0.63
0.95
0.92
0.10
0.67
0.75
0.76
0.84
0.85
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
-------
A.6.2 APPAMATTOX RIVER AT MATOACA, VA AT SEGMENT 310
(2041650)
Observed and Simulated versus Date
Actual Error versus Date
Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows (CF) 1984-1991
Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population
Frequency Distribution-Pair, Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population
Scatter Plot and Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated
Average Daily and Monthly Regressions for 1984-1991
Average Seasonal Regressions for 1984-1991
1 17
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CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
APPOMATTOX RIVER, VA (Segments 300 and 310) •
Table A.6.2.1 Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated flows.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mean
Observed Flow
(inches)*
18.16
12.83
7.68
14.55
7.42
14.52
11.37
8.19
11.84
Simulated Flow
(inches)**
18.03
12.75
7.63
14.46
7.36
14.43
11.29
8.14
11.76
* Observed flow at Appomattox River at Matoaca, VA
* * Simulated outflow from RCH 310
Table A.6.2.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow daily and monthly r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Average Daily
m
0.77
0.85
0.65
0.82
0.35
0.70
0.64
0.74
0.69
b
0.75
0.52
1.03
0.65
1.89
0.98
1.09
0.84
0.97
r2
0.76
0.65
0.52
0.76
0.27
0.67
0.67
0.62
0.61
Average Monthly
m
0.90
0.92
0.67
1.02
0.29
0.72
0.58
0.75
0.73
b
0.35
0.36
0.99
0.06
2.04
0.93
1.25
0.83
0.85
r2
0.89
0.67
0.58
0.98
0.24
0.70
0.77
0.61
0.68
-------
Table A.6.2.3 Seasonal r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Season 1
m
0.55
0.62
0.84
0.44
1.04
0.86
0.44
0.98
0.72
b
1.57
1.21
0.40
1.98
-0.11
0.37
1.76
0.26
0.94
r2
0.71
0.81
0.54
0.21
0.87
0.79
0.34
0.69
0.51
Season 2
m
0.73
1.31
0.90
0.87
-0.02
0.62
1.07
0.80
0.95
b
0.88
-1.03
0.10
0.38
2.79
1.26
0.38
0.53
0.02
r2
0.86
0.78
0.64
0.82
0.01
0.69
0.80
0.86
0.80
Season 3
m
0.46
1.08
0.89
1.08
0.12
0.68
0.70
0.84
0.77
b
1.57
0.14
0.50
0.07
2.42
1.08
0.98
0.65
0.82
r2
0.49
0.75
0.52
0.72
0.02
0.62
0.55
0.46
0.56
Season 4
m
0.95
0.77
0.78
1.12
0.57
0.86
0.74
0.60
0.81
b
0.17
0.99
0.94
0.45
1.34
0.55
0.80
1.16
0.73
r2
0.70
0.75
0.78
0.99
0.64
0.48
0.54
0.29
0.69
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
-------
Monitoring Stations
Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Phase IV Model Segments:
Eastern Shore Maryland
Figure A7
EASTERN SHORE MARYLAND BASIN
OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED
370
N
W-
-------
A.7.0 NANTICOKE RIVER AT BRIDGEVILLE, DE AT SEGMENT 780 (1487000)
Observed and Simulated versus Date
Actual Error versus Date
Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows (CF) 1984-1991
Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population
Frequency Distribution-Pair, Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population
Scatter Plot and Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated
Average Daily and Monthly Regressions for 1984-1991
Average Seasonal Regressions for 1984-1991
1 /, Q
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CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
NANTICOKE RIVER, VA (Segment 780)
Table A.7.0.1 Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated flows.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mean
Observed Flow
(inches)*
21.49
8.87
9.55
14.05
10.15
23.85
16.83
12.23
13.65
Simulated Flow
(inches)**
19.43
11.21
10.41
12.49
11.53
25.85
16.65
12.09
14.96
**
Observed flow at Nanticoke River at Matoaca, VA
Simulated outflow from RCH 780
Table A.7.0.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow daily and monthly r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991"
Average Daily
m
1.08
0.57
0.92
1.37
0.94
0.53
1.14
1.03
0.95
b
-0.15
0.67
0.10
-0.69
0.05
0.93
-0.30
-0.05
0.07
r2
0.84
0.37
0.74
0.88
0.62
0.69
0.77
0.79
0.71
Average Monthly
m
1.21
0.58
0.93
1.40
1.00
0.48
1.28
1.06
0.99
b
-11.73
19.98
2.30
-22.45
-2.05
31.92
-16.84
-3.00
-0.23
r2
0.93
0.24
0.74
0.88
0.74
0.58
0.83
0.89
0.73
1 SS
-------
Table A.7.0.3 Seasonal r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Season 1
m
0.22
1.45
1.56
0.33
0.94
n/a
0.83
0.78
0.55
b
1.70
-0.88
-1.04
1.53
-0.09
n/a
0.41
0.45
0.88
r2
0.12
0.83
0.93
0.19
0.56
n/a
0.46
0.76
0.57
Season 2
m
0.65
0.72
1.40
1.01
0.59
n/a
0.76
0.92
0.81
b
0.85
0.54
-0.62
0.12
-0.85
n/a
0.59
0.21
0.30
r2
0.53
0.15
0.94
0.44
0.19
n/a
0.65
0.37
0.76
Season 3
m
1.25
0.33
0.20
1.10
0.79
n/a
0.98
1.00
0.83
b
-0.54
0.96
1.08
-0.25
0.25
n/a
-0.08
-0.01
0.34
r2
0.96
0.18
0.04
0.87
0.42
n/a
0.58
0.58
0.72
Season 4
m
0.46
0.67
0.72
0.44
1.91
0.53
0.67
0.66
0.91
b
0.79
0.45
0.29
0.65
-1.24
0.93
0.46
0.51
0.26
r2
0.64
0.44
0.87
0.73
0.90
0.69
0.67
0.66
0.81
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
-------
A.8.0 CHOPTANK RIVER NEAR GREENSBORO, MD AT SEGMENT 770(1491000)
Observed and Simulated versus Date
Actual Error versus Date
Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows (CF) 1984-1991
Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population
Frequency Distribution-Pair, Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population
Scatter Plot and Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated
Average Daily and Monthly Regressions for 1984-1991
Average Seasonal Regressions for 1984-1991
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CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
CHOPTANK RIVER, MD (Segment 770)
Table A.8.0.1 Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated flows.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mean
Observed Flow
(inches)*
19.52
8.36
11.07
12.10
9.19
26.30
13.78
11.96
14.04
Simulated Flow
(inches)**
18.81
11.07
9.80
10.45
10.27
27.73
14.52
11.14
14.22
Observed flow at Choptank River near Greensboro, MD
Simulated outflow from RCH 770
Table A.8.0.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow daily and monthly r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Average Daily
m
0.82
0.84
0.75
0.74
0.85
0.71
0.67
0.68
0.76
b
0.37
0.31
0.36
0.44
0.28
0.65
0.66
0.56
0.45
r2
0.82
0.52
0.64
0.86
0.75
0.43
0.57
0.51
0.64
Average Monthly
m
0.83
0.85
0.75
0.68
0.91
0.74
0.69
0.72
0.79
b
0.35
0.30
0.36
0.61
0.17
0.59
0.62
0.49
0.39
r2
0.91
0.67
0.69
0.83
0.81
0.45
0.67
0.57
0.77
-------
Table A.8.0.3 Seasonal r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Season 1
m
0.86
1.01
0.86
0.36
1.15
0.87
0.61
0.63
0.62
b
0.49
-0.21
0.50
1.60
-0.63
0.46
0.95
0.84
0.75
r2
0.58
0.76
0.86
0.19
0.54
0.84
0.27
0.79
0.47
Season 2
m
0.70
0.60
1.03
0.55
0.55
0.77
0.59
0.87
1.05
b
0.75
0.83
0.30
1.06
0.98
0.62
0.97
0.40
-0.24
r2
0.53
0.74
0.84
0.25
0.48
0.47
0.59
0.79
0.75
Season 3
m
0.82
0.24
0.13
0.90
0.99
0.42
0.43
0.64
0.87
b
0.18
0.96
0.97
-0.03
0.01
1.20
0.85
0.69
0.28
r2
0.81
0.19
0.04
0.72
0.64
0.17
0.23
0.14
0.61
Season 4
m
0.58
0.77
0.93
0.45
1.20
0.63
0.76
0.61
0.82
b
0.55
0.39
-0.15
0.48
-0.26
0.77
0.31
0.44
0.43
r2
0.73
0.77
0.90
0.70
0.92
0.67
0.34
0.47
0.72
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
1 £,£,
-------
Monitoring Stations
Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Phase IV Model Segments:
Western Shore Maryland Basin
Figure A9
WESTERN SHORE MARYLAND BASIN
OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED
N
-------
A.9.0 PATAPSCO RIVER AT HOLLOFIELD, MD AT SEGMENT 760(1589000)
Observed and Simulated versus Date
Actual Error versus Date
Observed and Simulated Cumulative Flows (CF) 1984-1991
Actual Error versus Percentile Sample Population
Frequency Distribution-Pair, Simulated and Observed Data versus Percentile of Population
Scatter Plot and Regression of Simulated versus Observed with Ideal Line
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated
Average Daily and Monthly Regressions for 1984-1991
Average Seasonal Regressions for 1984-1991
-------
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CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
PATAPSCO RIVER, MD (Segment 760)
Table 9.0.1 Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated flows.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Mean
Observed Flow
(inches)*
27.48
9.74
8.07
12.44
11.86
17.93
15.58
11.38
14.31
Simulated Flow
(inches)**
19.15
10.33
12.00
13.39
10.12
21.02
13.11
11.44
13.82
**
Observed flow at Patapsco River near
Simulated outflow from RCH 760
Table 9.0.2 Regression of log simulated flow on log observed flow daily and monthly r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Average Daily
m
0.81
0.67
0.59
0.47
0.54
0.44
0.50
0.53
0.57
b
0.51
0.57
0.65
1.06
0.94
1.20
1.10
0.94
0.87
r2
0.51
0.47
0.48
0.42
0.43
0.51
0.35
0.39
0.45
Average Monthly
m
0.99
0.71
0.61
0.43
0.82
0.47
0.65
0.52
0.65
b
3.86
15.02
18.71
34.70
13.00
35.00
24.36
29.00
21.71
r2
0.58
0.27
0.44
0.48
0.64
0.74
0.41
0.31
0.48
175
-------
Table A.9.0.3 Seasonal r-squared.
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1984-1991
Season 1
m
0.17
0.76
0.56
0.24
0.37
0.62
0.50
0.25
0.82
b
1.96
0.60
0.92
1.58
1.33
0.77
1.21
1.71
0.33
r2
0.03
0.73
0.65
0.08
0.14
0.52
0.46
0.35
0.41
Season 2
m
1.02
0.33
0.51
0.38
0.46
0.66
0.34
0.65
0.92
b
0.27
1.41
1.05
1.37
1.28
0.71
1.53
0.95
0.00
•a
0.84
0.41
0.77
0.32
0.44
0.58
0.29
0.73
0.56
Season 3
m
0.63
0.65
0.03
0.45
0.34
0.36
0.47
0.23
0.79
b
0.85
0.43
1.34
1.05
1.22
1.42
1.06
1.27
0.33
r2
0.48
0.84
0.00
0.48
0.27
0.64
0.37
0.12
0.44
Season 4
m
0.47
0.66
0.79
0.56
0.40
0.32
0.55
0.35
0.73
b
1.01
0.50
0.00
0.80
1.09
1.39
0.94
1.13
0.60
r2
0.51
0.42
0.82
0.36
0.27
0.24
0.42
0.32
0.39
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
176
-------
Chesapeake Bay Program
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Chesapeake Bay Program Office
410 Severn Avenue, Suite 109
Annapolis, MD 21403
1-800-YOURBAY
www.epa.gov/chesapeake
------- |