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GEOME T, INCORPORATED . is FIRSTFIELD ROAD • GAITHERSBURG, MARYLAND 20750
301/948-0755 • CABLE ADDRESS: GEOMETINC
August 1, 1979
Mr. Thomas DeMoss
Chesapeake Bay Program
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
2083 West Street
Annapolis, Maryland 21401
Dear Mr. DeMoss:
Enclosed are the results of the literature search on "Socio-
economic Analysis with Respect to Large Scale Water Resources Planning
and Usage" we have completed for your office. This search was undertaken
on July 16, 1979 under GEOMET's Task Order Contract with EPA, 68-01-4144.
This search focuses on the overall topic by taking the following
steps. First, two computerized bibliographic searches were conducted
for the period 1971 to the present. Included were searches of the National
Technical Information Service System, and of Enviroline, a data base containing
citations from all the major environmentally oriented journals. Second, an
independent hand search was conducted of journals and books outside the
environmental field. A variety of published, special topic bibliographies
concerned with methods of economic analysis in large scale public programs
were consulted during this step.
The results of this three week effort are organized in the following
four sections:
*
t Publicly financed research projects with abstracts
of their results
• Photo copies of articles of particular relevance
to the sodo-economics of water resource use
• A bibliography of journal articles, books, book
chapters, and professional presentations of relevance
• Books of special relevance which EPA might consider
acquiring for its own library.
We have appreciated this opportunity to assist EPA and hope we
can be of further service in the near future. If you have questions concerning
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Mr. Thomas DeMoss
-2-
August 1, 1979
this bibliographic search, please do not hesitate to call me at
(301) 948-0755.
MBHrltg
Enclosure
Michael B. Harrington, Ph.D.
Manager, Health and Environmental
Economics Studies
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.0 PUBLICLY FINANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS
WITH ABSTRACTS
1.1 Alphabetical Listing of Economic
Analysis Abstracts
1.2 Economic Analysis Abstracts
1.3 Alphabetical Listing of Socio-Political
Analysis Abstracts
1.4 Socio-political Analysis Abstracts
1.5 Alphabetical Listing of Methodology
Abstracts
1.6 Methodology Abstracts
1.7 Alphabetical Listing of Environmental
Case Studies Abstracts
1.8 Environmental Case Studies Abstracts
2.0 RELEVANT PHOTOCOPIED ARTICLES
2.1 Alphabetical Listing of Economic
Analysis Articles
2.2 Economic Analysis Articles
2.3 Alphabetical Listing of Socio-Political
Analysis Articles
2.4 Socio-Political Analysis Articles
2.5 Alphabetical Listing of Methodology Articles
2.6 Methodology Articles
2.7 Alphabetical Listing of Environmental Case
Studies Articles
2.8 Environmental Case Studies Articles
3.0 A SUPPLEMENTARY BIBLIOGRAPHY
4.0 RECOMMENDED" ADDITIONS TO EPA'S LIBRARY
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1-44
1-73
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2-139
2-140
2-249
2-250
2-307
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Section 1.0
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PUBLICLY FINANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS WITH ABSTRACTS
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I Section 1.0
PUBLICLY FINANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS WITH ABSTRACTS
Included 1n this section are the abstracts of research projects
• funded by public authorities, typically the Federal government. All were
obtained through a search of the computerized files maintained by the
B National Technical Information Service in Springfield, Virginia. These
• project abstracts are organized in four sections: economic analysis;
socio-political analysis; methodology; and environmental case studies.
• Many of the projects could appear under several headings due to their
breadth or for other reasons. Nonetheless, each project appears just
• once, under the heading which appears to express its major thrust most
• effectively. Within each section, the projects are alphabetized by title.
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1.1 Alphabetical Listing of Economic Analysis Abstracts
1. An Analytical Interdisciplinary Evaluation of the Utilization of the
Water Resources of the Rio Grande in New Mexico: Lower Rio Grande
Region.
2. Analyzing Reimbursement Mechanisms of Resource Development Project.
3. Alternate Solutions to Water Resource Development—A Case Study.
4. Commercial Navigation on the Upper Mississippi River: An Economic
Review of Its Development and Public Policy Issues Affecting Minnesota,
5. Economic Base Study of the Mobile-Alabama-Coosa River Basin.
6. An Economic Analysis of the Proposed Water Resources Project for
the Upper French Broad River Basin in Western North Carolina.
7. An Economic Evaluation of Water Quality Management Systems.
8. Effects of Economic Development on Water Resources.
9. The Interrelationship of Economic Development and Environmental
Quality 1n the Upper Colorado River Basin: An Interindustry Analysis.
10. A Methodology for Assessment of Water Resources Development: A
Competitive Evaluation Model for Water Resources Development Planning.
11. People and the Sound. An Economic Perspective.
12. Plan for Development of the Land and Water Resources of the Southeast
River Basins. Appendix 9. Economics.
13. The Powder River Basin Economic Simulation Model: A Technical Report
and Supplement to the Technical Report.
14. Research on Water Resources Evaluation Methodology: A River Basin
Economic and Financial Post-Audit.
15. Subsidies, Capital Formation, and Technological Change: Municipal
Wastewater Treatment Facilities. Volume 1.
16. The Willamette Basin Comprehensive Study of Water and Related Land
Resources. Appendix C. Economic Base.
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_ 1.2 Economic Analysis Abstracts
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An Analytical Interdisciplinary Evaluation of the Utilization
of the Water Resources of the Rio Grande in New Mexico: Lower
Rio Grande Region
Univ., University ParK. Water Resources
Flci:
122p
WRRI-024
OWRR-A-045-NMEX, OWRR-B-016-NMEX
Bon-David, Shaul; Gebhard, Thomas
CreeI, Booby J.
GRAI7414
Now Mexico State
Research Inst.
AUTHOR: Lansford, Robert R.
G. Or; Brutsacrt, Willem
C2945H4 Fid: 138, 488
May 73
Rept No
Project
Moni tor: OWRR-A-045-rJMEX(6)
Includes Rept. nos. CWRR-B-019-NMEX(6) and OWRR-8-026-NMEX(6).
Abstract: An interdisciplinary approach to the solution of the
water resource problems of the Lower Rio Grande Region in New
Mexico was centered around a socio-economic model, 'developed
to represent the Me.v Mexico economy, witn special emphasis
placed upon the Rio Granae region. Inputs into the
socio-economic model were obtained from separate studies
covering the hydrological, agricultural, municipal, and
industrial areas. Three sets of alternatives were considered:
Growth without a water constraint; growth, with a
surface-water constraint; growth, with both surface- and
ground-water constraints. (Modified author abstract)
Descriptors: *New Mexico, *Rio Grande River Basin, *Water
resources, River basin development, Economic analysis,
Forecasting, Economic models, Surface waters, Ground water,
Land use, Classifications, Water consumption
Identifiers: NTISQWRR
PB-232 068/7 NTIS Prices: PC A06/MF A01
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Development
C5245G3 fid.
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Ia.ntt
NTISOIOWRT
PB-243 917/2ST NTlS Prices: PC A02/MF A01
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Alternate Solutions to Water Resource Development—A Case
Study
Texas A and M Univ., College Station. Water Resources Inst.
Technical rept. 1 Sep 72-31 Dec 73
AUTHOR: Basco, David R.; Rahman, K. M. A.
C3215C2 Fid: 138, 488* GRAI7418
May 74 187p*
Rept No: TR-55
Contract: DI-14-31-0001-3938
Project: OWRR-B-141-TEX
Monitor: W74-09661
Abstract: An effort is made to develop procedural methodology
for the consideration of alternative solutions for water
resources development in a short period of time with a view
toward reduction of total costs involved in prefeasibi1ity
studies. Three techniques were developed to estimate the
Investment costs of a reservoir project, a levee project, and
a basin conservation reservoir project in an economic region.
The application of the methodologies were illustrated by a
case study. The cost of a reservoir project in the case study
area determined by the method developed was in excellent
agreement with the Corps of Engineers' estimate using
conventional methods. Selected solutions for water resources
development problems in the Navasota River watershed were
analyzed. The cost of water supply by desalination in the
service area of the proposed Millican reservoir was computed.
The investment costs of the alternatives were compared. The
multipurpose reservoir project for flood control, water supply
and recreation was found to be the least costly project.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Economic development, *Texas,
Investments, Multiple purpose reservoirs, Project planning,
Cost comparison, Feasibility, Levees, Embankments, Benefit
cost analysis, Flood control, Water supply, Cost estimates,
Desalting,^Navasota River, Bravos River Basin
Identifiers: Millican Reservoir(Texas), Alternative water use,
NTISDIOWRR
PB-233 725/1 NTIS Prices: PC A09/MF A01
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Commercial Navigation on the Upper Mississippi River: An
Economic Review of Its Development and Public Policy Issues
Affecting Minnesota
Minnesota Univ., Minneapolis, Water Resources Research
Center.*0ffice of Water Research and Technology, Washington,
D.C. .
AUTHOR: Christiansen, Rodney W.
C4521A3 Fid: 05C, 13B, 13J, 96B, 85B GRAI7511
Oct 74 125p
Rept No: WRRC-Bull-75
Contract: DI-14-31-0001-3601
Project: OWRT-B-054-MINN
Monitor: OWRT-B-054-MINN(6)
Abstract: Inland waterway transport is a significant carrier
of domestic cargo, accounting for about 14% of the total
traffic. During the past decade cargo carried by the inland
increased by 46% (62% when the Great Lakes are
increasing the absolute amount of freight
than the average (42%), the inland waterway's
of total freight traffic has also grown over
Also, development of the Upper Mississippi
major inland waterway has been even more
Minnesota and the Midwest than for much of the
nation. A transportation model, based on
waterways
excluded). By
carried greater
relative share
the past decade
River into a
significant for
rest of the
competitive assumptions and employing a derived demand
analysiSi is presented. The model predicts that there will be
an increase in demand for transportation services, especially
barge services. The current issues in commercial navigation
which affect Minnesota involve a resolution of the conflict
between developmental and environmental values.
Descriptors: *Economic analysis, *Mississippi River, *Waterway
transportation, *Minnesota, Economic models. Cargo
transportation, Inland waterways, Dredging, Waste disposal,
Policies, Benefit cost analysis, Demand(Economics), Commercial
transportat ion
Identifiers: NTISDIOWRT
PB-239 962/4ST NTIS Prices: PC A06/MF A01
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Economic Base Study of the Mobile-Alabama-Coosa Riven Basin
Alabama Univ., University. Bureau of Business Research
01481C1 Fid: 13B d7604
dun 67 120p
Contract: PH-86-65-45
Monitor: 18
Abstract: This report presents the results of an Economic Base
Study of the Mobi1e-Alabama-Coosa (MAC) River Drainage Basins.
One purpose of the study was to project the economic growth
and development of the MAC Basin area to 1965, 1980, and 2015,
for development plans of water and related land resources to
meet emerging needs. Economic and demographic characteristics,
growth rates, and trends are developed through time-series
analyses and taken into account in projecting future growth
and development patterns for use in planning activities.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Resources management, *Riven
basin development, Mobile-Alabama-Coosa river basins, Land
development, Economic factors. Water pollution
Identifiers: NTISEPAO
PB-260 077/3ST NTIS Prices: PC A06/MF A01
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An Economic
for the Upper
CarolIna
Analysis of the Proposed Water Resources Project
French Broad River Basin in Western North
Water Research and
Georgia Univ., Athens.*0ffice of
Technology, Washington, O.C. (153 970)
Doctoral thesis
AUTHOR: Sellers, d.
C4525C2 Fid: 13B, 05C, 488 GRAI7511
1972 313p
Project: OWRT-A-040-GA
Monitor: OWRT-A-040-GA(1)
Abstract: A procedure is develooed and tested for evaluating
water resources projects based on economic, social, legal, and
environmental considerations. The areas of economic theory and
public finance that apply to water resources investments
supplied the basis for the analysis. Additional information
concerning the environmental aspects were integrated with the
economic and public finance aspects to develop a systematic
process for evaluation. The proposed water resources project
for the Upper French Broad River Basin in North Carolina was
completely based on the methodologies that have been developed
up to the present time.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *River basin development,
•Benefit cost analysis, Project planning, Recreation, Flood
control, Social welfare, Regional planning. Theses, Water
pollution control, Economic impact, Assessments, French Broad
River Basin, North Carolina
Identifiers: NTISDIOWRT
P8-240 563/7ST NTIS Prices: PC A14/WF A01
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An Economic Evaluation of Water Quality Management Systems
Clemson Univ., S.C. Water Resources Research Inst.*0fffee of
Water Research and Technology, Washington, D.C.
Completion rept.
AUTHOR: Macau lay, Hugh H.; Yandle, T. Bruce Jr
C6201E1 Fid: 138, 05C, 68D*, 96A* GRAI7609
Oct 75 84p*
Rept No: WRRI-58
Contract: DI-14-31-0001-4041, DI-14-31-0001-5041
Project: OWRT-A-030-SC
Monitor: OWRT-A-030-SC(2)
Abstract: There are three general economic policies for
dealing with water pollution, each one with a different
following. Pollticians and government administrators prefer
regulations to restrict the amount of waste discharged by
firms. Businessmen prefer government subsidies for cleaning up
their affluent. Economists prefer charges on wastes
discharged, based on the marginal damage dona. AH three ar»
discussed. Regulations are described as inefficient^
capricious, and destined to create dissatisfaction on the part
of all parties affected. Subsidies are even more inefficient
administratively difficult, and have probably reduced the
treatment of wastes. Charges may result in significant
transaction costs but should be the most efficient in waste
treatment and production of final output. But charges should
be levied on all users of water quality, not on mills and
municipalities only. Water pollution policies in Germany,
England, the Netherlands, and France are examined and
evaluated.
Descriptors: *Government policies, *Water quality management,
*Economic analysis, East Germany, Regulations, Benefit cost
analysis, Taxes, Water pollution, Policies, River basin
development, Water pollution abatement, Foreign policy, West
Germany, Great Britain, Netherlands, France, Grants,
Allocations, Europe, Profits, Social welfare, Industries
Identifiers:. National government, *Foreign countries, *Water
pollution abatement, NTISDICWRT
PB-249 741/OST NTIS Prices: PC A05/MF A01
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Effects of Economic Development on Water Resources
Technical rept.
AUTHOR: Cumoeriand, John H.; Herzog, Henry w. Jr
D3155K1 Fid: 13B, 660 GRAI7720
Aon 77 66p
Rept No: TR-40
Contract: DI-14-31 -0001-5020
Project: OWRT-A-028-MD
Monitor: OWRT-A-028-MD( 1 )
effect the generation of residuals. Methods were
o e
n n 'duals- and to trace the flows through
processes and environmental media. Specific
outn,f e9P°SS ^!1dual coefficients were derived for the
output of emissions from 92 types of economic activity into
the Chesapeake Bay by 15 major river basins. aciivitv '"to
ana-*t M .neso^ces, 'Industrial wastes, *Cost
andly;,,,, *water pollution, *Chesapeake Bay, Economic models
"' SSWae
EsimatPs F . -n
Estimates, Flow charting, Water pollution abatement
Identifiers: NTISDIOWRT
P8-269 096/4ST NTIS Prices: PC A04/MF A01
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The Interrelationship
Environmental Quality in
Interindustry Analysis
of Economic
the Upper Colorado
Development
River Basin:
and
An
Colorado Univ., Boulder. Dept. of Economics.
Research rept.
AUTHOR: Udis, Bernard; Howe, Charles W.
C2102J2 Fid: 138, 5C, 48B, 96G, 86K
Jul 73 651p
Grant: EDA-OER-351-G-71-8
Monitor: EDA/OER-73-122
Kreider,
GRAI7403
Jan F.
Abstract: A set of compatible models relating the economic
activities of the sub-basins of the Upper Colorado River, both
present and prospective, to air quality and water quantity and
quality resulting from those patterns of economic activity is
developed. The purpose of such a s^t of models is to enable
the planner to test some of the environmental implications of
alternative growth patterns for the region. The report
describes in detail the models which have been developed ?,nd
calibrated for the three upccr sub-basins (the Upper Main
Stem, the Green, and the San Juan), an area which contains the
origins of the most pressing problems of the basin; salinity,
shale oil industry future impacts, and the expanded diversions
of water of the Rocky Mountain Eastern Slope.
Descriptors: *Upper Colorado River basin, *Economic
development, *Water quality, *Water resources, Economic models
, Salinity, Air pollution, San Juan River basin, Green River
basin, Industries, Hydrology,
pollutionT Water distribution,
Recreational facilities, Oil shale,
Regional planning, Water
Atmospheric diffusion,
Computer programs
Identifiers: *Air quality, EDA
COM-73-11970/3 NTIS Prices: PC E16/MF A01
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A Methodology for Assessment of Water Resources Development: A
Competitive Evaluation Model for Water Resources Development
Planning
Oklahoma Water Resources Research Inst., Stillwater.
Completion rept.
AUTHOR: Reid, George w.; Law, Silas S. Y.
C1984D3 Fid: 13B, 48B* GRAI7401
Jul 73 201p*
Contract: 01-14-31-0001-3836
Project: OWRR-A-036-OKLA
Monitor: OWRR-A-034-OKLA(1)
Abstract: An effective evaluation methodology for assisting in
water resources development planning is developed. A new model
was contemplated for solving two principal problems associated
with the present practices of water resources development
planning - the considering of individual development as
isolated entity and the using of the benefit and cost ratio as
the only analysis in the evaluation process. The model was
developed by using game theory concepts. The principal tactics
employed in the model are the competitive measuring between
bensfit categories and the competitive evaluation of the
development objectives. The procedures used in the model
enables the identifying of the following: the overall system
of water resources development as well as the individual or
local development, the relationship and priorities of
developments in different locations and between various
purposes of development. The model is also able to recognize
the competitive nature of water resources development and to
augment some new measurements. The model as a whole provides a
new approach for summarizing a large number of data into a
simple and meaningful form in order to formulate systematic
recommendations for the decision-maker. (Modified author
abstract)
Descriptors: (*River basin development, Mathematical models),
(*Water resources, Project planning), Evaluation, Game theory,
Benefit cost analysis, Statistical data, Decision making,
Regional planning, Systems analysis, Measurement, Heuristic
methods, Cost effectiveness, Methodology
Identifiers: OWRR
PB-224 825/0 NTIS Prices: PC A10/MF A01
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People and the Sound. An Economic Perspective
New England River Basins Commission, Boston, Mass. *Econom1c
Research Service, Broomal I , Pa.*Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Washington, O.C.
Final rept
C54G5F4
Aug 75
Rept No:
Monitor:
Report
Fid: 13B, 05C, 91H,
86p
LISS-13
18
on Long Island Sound
with Economic Research Service
Economic Analysis, Washington,
Paper copy also available
233-SET, PCS61.00.
488, 96A GRAI7525
Study. Prepared in cooperation
, Sroomall, Pa., and Bureau of
D.C.
in set of 14 reports as P8-245
Abstract: The report examines the economic and demographic
trends in the Lcng Island Sound region, with data for use as
the basis of all projections macJa in the Long Island Sound
Study. It is part of the final report of the Study, whicn
outlines a strategy for securing the balanced conservation and
development of natural resources of the Sound and its
shoreline in both New York and Connecticut. The plan for Long
Island Sound is an increment of the New England River Basins
Commission comprehensive, coordinated joint plan for the water
and related land resources of its region, which includes New
England and the New York portions of Long Island Sound.
Descriptors: *Regional planning, *Matural resources, 'Economic
development, *Long Island Sound, Demography, Land use, Water
resources, Land development, Industries, Employment,
Conservation, Management, New York, Connecticut
Identlfjers: NTISNERBC. NTISCOMBSA, NTISAGERS
PB-245 246/4ST NT IS Prices: PC A05/MF A01
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Plan for Development of the Land and Water Resources of the
Southeast River Basins. Appendix 9. Economics
United States Study Commission Southeast River Basins Atlanta
C-a (410288)
Final rept.
D3111I2 Fid: 138, 488, 91H GRAI7720
1963 24ip
monitor: 18
Original contains color plates: All DOC and NTIS reproductions
will be in black and white. Appendix 9 to AO-A041 835. See
also Appsndix 10 and 11, AO-A041 850.
Abstract: This Appendix provides a listing and review of the
economic studies and analyses made in preparing a
comprehensive, integrated plan of development of the land and
water resources of the Southeast River Basins area. Throughout
this Reoort the term economic is used in its broad sense
covering many economic, social and institutional conditions
and adjustments. Part One sets forth the conceptual framework,
objectives, controlling assumptions, criteria, and study
guidelines. Part Two summarizes and describes the basic
studies carried out to meet the plan objectives. Part Three
contains the Economic Framework or general guidelines for
planning. Some of these guidelines had their origin in recent
national studies, the results of which were adopted by the
Commission as general guides for regional planning. Other
guidelines were developed by the staff from the basic studies.
Part Four presents the principles and procedures used in
making economic evaluation studies of programs and projects.
Part Five discusses cost sharing and financing as important
aspects of the implementation of the resource plan.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *8asins(Geographic), *Economic
analysis,-North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida,
Alabama, Planning, Demography, Agriculture, Employment,
Commerce, Cost analysis
Identifiers: River Basin development, NTISDODXA
AD-A041 844/2ST NTIS Prices: PC A11/MF A01
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The Powder River Basin Economic Simulation Model: A Technical
Report and Supplement to the Technical Report
Wyoming Univ., Laramie. Water Resources Research lnst.*0ffice
of Water Research and Technology, Washington, D.C.
Completion rept.
AUTHOR: Carlson, John F.; Phillips, Clynn
E2102H1 Fid: 5C, 138, 91J GRAI7820
Aug 77 196p
Contract: DI-14-31-0001-5237
Project: CWRT-C-6311(5237)
Monitor: OWRT-C-6311(5237)(1)
Abstract1 The development and application of a
continuous-growth economic simulation model to a
discrete-growth economy are described. The model developed is
a further adaptation of the North Platte River Basin Economic
Simulation Model (1976) to Wyoming's Powder River Basin, which
includes five Wyoming counties. The model is employment-based
and simulates economic activity in seven sectors: population,
employment, water demand, land use, income, agriculture, and
housing. All major economic variables contained in the model
are expressed in terms of functions relating dependent and
inaependent variables, thus allowing virtually unlimited
experimentation with various functional forms.
Descriptors: *Powder River basin, *Economic models, *River
basin development, Economic analysis, Populations, Employment,
Water consumption, Land use, Income, Water resources. Manpower
, Computerized simulation, Agriculture, Housing studies,
Wyoming
Identifiers: NTISDIOWRT
PB-282 562/8ST NTIS Prices: PC A09/MF A01
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Research on Water Resources Evaluation Methodology'• A River
Basin Economic and Financial Post-Audit
Little (Arthur D.), Inc., Cambridge, Mass."Office of Water
Research and Technology, Washington, D.C. (208 850)
Final rept.
AUTHOR: Wilkinson, vJohn M.
C4662I2 Fid: 138, 05C, 488, 96A GRAI7513
31 Mar 75 203p
Contract: DI-14-31-0001-4228
Project: OWRT-C-5126(4228)
Monitor: OWRT-C-5126(4228)(1)
Abstract: Benefit-cost analysis has long been relied upon as a
tool for planning and justifying river-basin programs. Almost
no record is kept of actual benefit accruals to compare with
planning expectations. This postaudit of the Pick-Sloan
Missouri Basin Program attempted to quantify the 30-year
performance of multipurpose programs in dollar terms. Applying
current evaluation Principles and Standards of the Water
Resources Council on an ex-post basis, the objective *as to
determine how much physical and dollar realities have differed,
frcm original plans, why they have differed, and what are the
implications for future planning. Because benefit estimating
procedures remain so imperfect, a wide range of values could
be quantified; however, it appears that flood control and
electric power program performance far exceeded plan, while
that for irrigation and navigation programs fell far short of
plan. Benefits could be double or half most of those estimated
in this post-audit, depending on value assumptions.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Economic development,
*Missouri River, Benefit ccst analysis, Financing, Hydrology,
Flood control, Irrigation, Recreation, Wildlife, Navigation,
Water supply, Hydroelectric power generation, Fishes
Identifiers: NTISDIOWRT
PB-241 061/1ST NTIS Prices: PC A10/MF A01
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Subsidies, Capital Formation, and Technological Change:
Municipal Wastewater Treatment Facilities. Volume 1
Charles River Associates, Inc., Cambridge, Mass.*National
Bureau of Standards, Washington, D.C. Experimental Technology
Incentives Progr-am. (402 974)
Final rept.
E2673H4 Fid: 5C, 5A, 138, 96A*, 70F*, 680* GRAI7825
dul 77 150p*
Rept No: CRA-302.03
Contract: NBS-6-35744
Monitor: NBS-GCR-ETIP-78-40
_See also Volume 2, PB-28S 289._
Also available in set of 8 reports PC E19, PB-285 287-SET.
Abstract: The study evaluates
grants for the improvement
waterways. The analysis is
important program in this
assist in the construction of
as called for in the 1972
comparison with this program's annual funding of S5
$6 billion, other programs in this area are
faci1i t ies
supplemented by
states. The grant
legislation which
control poli cy
the economic impact of federal
of the quality of the nation's
confined to the single most
area, namely federal grants to
municipal waste treatment plants
Water Quality Amendments. By
bi11 ion to
vi rtual1y
insignificant. The program provides municipalities with 75
percent of the costs of constructing wastewater treatment
which meet EPA approval and it is often
additional construction grants from the
program is part of the broad body of federal
sets forth the nation's water pollution
,— .-, - This legislation provides a system for
defining and enforcing effluent standards pertaining to all
point source dischargers. Grants are available only to
municipal dischargers except for an implicit, but smaller,
subsidy to industries who tie into municipal systems. Of
particular concern are the effects of the program both in the
production of municipal waste treatment and on the rate of
technological change in the industry. Attention is also given
to the program's impact on the rate of growth in waste
treatment plant construction and on its distributional
implicatTons.
Descriptors: *Federal assistance programs, *Economic impact,
*Sewage treatment, Grants, Municipalities, Economic analysis,'
Economic development, Capital, Government policies, Incentives
, Construction, Water quality, Legislation, Regulations,
Waterways(Watercourses), Water supply, Water resources
Identifiers: technological change, technological development
, Economic growth, *Sewage treatment plants, Innovations,
*Water pollution control, NTISCOMN8S
PB-285 288/7ST NTIS Prices! PC A07/MF A01
1-18
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The Willamette Basin Comprehensive Study of Water and Related
Land Resources. Appendix C. Economic Base
Pacific Northwest River Basins Commission Vancouver Wash (
410072)
0198413 Fid: 13B, 8H, 483, 68D, 91H GRAI7711
1969 285p
Moni tor: 18
Original contains coior plates: AH DDC reproductions will be
in black and white. Appendix C to AD-A036 745. See also
Appendix 0, AD-A03S 749.
Abstract: This is a specialized study designed to serve as a
guide to water and related land resources development
planning. An expanding economy requires more resources or more
intensive resource utilization. Aa demands for resources
increase, the increase in their supply can often be attained
only by developing more costly sources or by utilizing
resources more intensively. In particular, future demand for
water looms large. Assuring that demands for resources will be
satisfied in the best manner requires comprehensive
development plans. These plans should in turn be based on the
Character and growth of the basin's economy. The objective of
the Economic Base Study is to provide the basis for
determining the scale, sequence, and timing of water and
related land resources development. These determinations are
based on estimates of future economic activity within the
basin and tne characteristics and size of its population. In
estimating the basin's future economic activity, regional,
national, and foreign trade in goods and services are
recognized. Exports of basin products enhance the economic
growth of the basin. The economic parameters projected in this
study may be used in determining the need for each of the
resource planning oojectives. Useful economic parameters
include (1) population and its characteristics—age, sex, and
per capita income—for estimates of visitor-day use in fish
and wildlife, and recreation studies; (2) output of industries
uaing large quantities of water and power, for estimates of
municipal and industrial water and power requirements; and (3)
changes in urban, industrial, and agricultural development.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Env1ronmental management,
*Economic analysis, *Water pollution abatement, Rivers,
8asins{Geogfaphic), Land use, Planning, Population, Urban
areas, Rural areas, Agriculture, Industrial production,
Recreation, Navigation, Irrigation systems, Flood control,
Oregon
Identifiers: *Wi1lamette River Basin, *Economic feasibility,
•Water resources development, NTISOOOXA
AO-A036 748/2ST NTIS Prices: PC A13/MF A01
1-19
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1.3 Alphabetical Listing of Socio-Political Analysis Abstracts
1. An Analytical Interdisciplinary Evaluation of the Utilization of the
Water Resources of the Rio Grande in New Mexico: Socorro Region.
2. Basin Governance.
3. Comprehensive Basin Study. Red River Below Denison Dam, Arkansas,
Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas. Volume 3. Appendix V.
4. An Economic Study of Voter Attitudes Toward Different Proposals
for the Use of an Undeveloped Island, Sears Island, Maine.
5. Improvement of Planning for Post-Development Water Resource Management:
A Study of the Weber Basin Project.
6. Improvements Needed by the Water Resources Council and River Basin
Commissions to Achieve the Objectives of the Water Resources Planning
Act of 1965.
7. Issues and Opinions on the Social Effects of Water Allocation for
Coal Development in the Yellowstone River Drainage.
8. Laws Relating to Industrial and Agricultural Activities.
9. Legal-Political History of Water Resource Development in the Upper
Colorado River Basin, Part I. Summary of the Legislative History
of the Colorado River Storage Project. Part II. The Politics of
Water Resource Development in the Upper Colorado River Basin.
10. Lower Sheyenne River Basin, Water, Land, People.
11. Multiobjective Interagency Study of the Bear River Basin Water and
Related Land Resources. (Utah).
12. People and the Sound. Marine Transportation Planning Report.
13. Plan of Study Subproject Report for a Case Study of a Federal
Expenditure on a Water and Related Land Resource Project, Boise
Project, Idaho and Oregon.
14. Problem Identification and Ranking - An Assessment of a River Basin
Planning Process.
15. Proceedings of the Conference on Interdisciplinary Analysis of Water
Resource Systems Held at Colorado University, Boulder, Colorado,
on June 19-22, 1973.
16. Report of Testing Special Task Force Evaluation Procedures Water
Resource Council for Poteau River Watershed, Scott County, Arkansas
and LeFlore County, Oklahoma.
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117. Rocky Mountain Environmental Research. Quest for a Future. Problems
and Research Priorities in the Rocky Mountain Region.
118. Water Supply and Wastewater in Coastal Areas: Proceedings of Southeastern
Conference Held on April 2-4, 1975.
19. The Winooski Workshops: An Assessment of Specified Workshop Techniques
I for Stimulating and Improving Public Involvement in Water Resources.
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1.4 Socio-Political Analysis Abstracts
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An Analytical Interdisciolinary Evaluation of the Utilization
of the Water Resources of the Rio Grande in New Mexico:
Socorro Region
New Mexico State
Research Inst.
Partial technical
AUTHOR: lansford,
G. Jr; Brutsaert,
Univ.
University Park. Water Resources
completion rept.
Robert R.; Ben-David,
Wi11i am; Creel, Bobby
GRAI7411
Shaul
J.
Gebhard, Thomas
C2721G3 Fid: 138, 488
Dec 73 107p
Rept No: WRRI-023
Project: OWRR-A-045-fJMEX
Monitor: OWPR-A-045-NMEX(4)
Abstract: An interdisciplinary approach to the solution of the
water resource problems of the Soccrro Region in New Mexico
was centered around a socio-economic model, developed to
represent the New Mexico economy, with special emphasis placed
upon the Rio Grande region. Inputs into the socio-economic
model were obtained from separata studies covering the
hydro 1051ca1, agricultural, mur.icioal, and industrial areas.
Three sets of alternatives were considered: (1) growth without
a water constraint; (2) growth, with a surface-water
constraint; (3) growth, with both surface- and ground-water
constraints. (Modified author abstract)
Descriptors: *New Mexico, *Water resources,
River basin dovol opnient, Rio Grande River>,
Ground waters, Utilization
Identifiers: OWRR
PB-230 815/7 NTIS Prices: PC A06/MF A01
*Economic
Surface
model 3,
waters,
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Basin Governance
Cornell Univ. Agricultural Experiment Station, Ithaca, N.Y.
Dept. of Agricultural Economics.*Utah Center for Water
Resources Research, Logan.
AUTHOR: Allee, David J.; Caoener, Harold R.; Andrews, Wade H.
C7202B4 Fid: 13B, 8H, 5K, 5C, 48B, 48G, 92C GRA17621
Dec 75 29p
Rept No: Staff Paper-75-25
Monitor: OWRT-B-136-UTAH(1)
Prepared in cooperation with Utah Center for Water Resources
Research, Logan, Contract 01-14-31-0001-5141, Project
OWRT-B-136-UTAH.
Abstract: The report is the result of three workshop sessions.
The complex organizational problems of regional and river
basin management call for a major integrated effort of several
social science disciplines. An approach to this research is
recommended. Requirements of social science research on this
problem are: first, support of an interdisciplinary social
science research team through the necessary phases of the
broad problem. The mapping and inventorying of river basin
management and organization is the first stage of this worK. A
second requirement is to support the work through an adequate
period of time to complete the stages necessary.
Descriptors: *River basin development, *Regional planning,
*Sosioeconomic status, Research management, Water quality
management, Organizations, Social effect, Budgeting, Political
objectives. Cost control, Economic analysis
Identifiers: institutional framework,
relationships, NTISOIOWRT
PB-255 099/4ST NTIS Prices! PC A03/MF A01
Intergovernmental
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Comprehensive Basin Study. Red River Below Denison Dam,
Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas. Volume 3. Appendix V
Red River Basin Coordinating Committee New Orleans La (
410089)
D1985A1 Fid: 13B, 8H, 48B, 680, 48G GRAI7711
Jun 68 260p
Monitor: 18
Appendix to report dated Jun 68, AD-A036 742. See also Volume
4, Apoendices 6 and 7, AO-A036 751. Original contains color
plates; All ODC reproductions will be in black and white.
Abstract: The purposes of this document is to: (1) Identify
water and related land resource problems; (2) prepare a
potential plan for water and related land resource development
that could be accomplished undsr USDA programs; (3) prepare
agricultural and forestry data for use of cooperating agencies
in planning water and related resource projects under their
programs; and (4) compile engineering, economic, and related
data that local organizations could use for developing water
and related land resources.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Rivers, *Watersheds, *Land use
, *Water supplies, Economic analysis, Management planning and
control, Basins(Geographic), Agriculture, Forestry, Soil
erosion, Population, Employment
Identifiers: *Red River Basin, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma,
Texas, *Water resources development, *Land development,
NTISDODXA
AD-A036 750/8ST NTIS Prices: PC A12/MF A01
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An Economic Study of Voter Attitudes Toward Different
Proposals for the Use of an Undeveloped Island, Sears Island,
Maine
Massachusetts Agricultural Experiment Station, Amherst.
AUTHOR: Seekins, Milton 0.; Storey, David A.
£267304 Fid: 13B, 488, 91H GRAI7825
May 77 80p
Rept No: BULL-651
Monitor: 18
Library of Congress Catalog Card no. 78-622501.
Abstract: The study deals with voters' perceptions of the
impacts of various developmental alternatives for a case study
tract of coastal wildland at one particular point in time,
their resulting attitudes toward the alternatives, and the
dollar valuations associated with those attitudes. An attempt
is made to evaluate relationships between socio-economic
characteristics of individuals and the above measures. Thus,
the purpose is to try to explain variations in attitudes and
valuations by variations in population characteristics, as an
aid to the planning process in other times and other places.
Descriptors! *Land use, *Coastal zone management, *Land
development, Attitudes, Socioeconomic status, Sears Island,
Water resources, Penobscot Bay, Maine
Identifiers: *Wildlands, Searsport(Maine), Stockton
Springs(Maine), Waldo County(Maine), Case studies.
Alternatives, NTISSLLC
P8-285 270/5ST NTIS Prices: PC A05/MF A01
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Improvement of Planning for Post-Development Water Resource
Management: A Study of the Weber Basin Project
for Social Science
Water Research and
Research on
Technology,
Utah State Univ., Logan. Inst.
Natural Resources.*0ffice of
Washington, D.CO-
AUTHOR: Madsen, Gary E.; Andrews, Wade H.
02515E4 Fid: 138, 5K, 48B, 92C GRAI7714
Sep 76 98p
Rept No: Research Mono-6
Contract: DI-14-31-0001-5212
Project: OWRT-C-6092(5212)
Monitor: OWRT-C-6092(5212)(1)
Abstract: The objectives of the studies were to: (1) Identify
present management problems in the Weber Basin Project of
Utah; (2) identify whether the problems are related to the
planning process so that relationships between planning and
management can be identified; (3) identify recommendations
from present management personnel concerning changes in
planning which might help alleviate management problems with
future projects, as wel! as recommendations for present
solutions to problems; (4) identify theoretical elements which
can be applied to future planning. Present management problems
were being experienced primarily in two areas, urban
pressurized irrigation systems (where the non-treated water Is
used for residential lawns, gardens and shrubs), and the
recreation component of the project. Several recommendations
for future water resources planning resulted.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Social effect,
development, Project planning, Recommendations,
Demand(Economics), Water supply. Recreation,
Attitudes, Environmental impacts, Utah
Identifiers': *Water management (Administrat i ve),
project, Water demand, NTISOIOWRT
PB-266 009/OST NTIS Prices: PC A05/MF A01
*River basin
Irrigat ion,
Urban areas,
Weber Basin
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Improvements Needed by the Water
Basin Commissions to Achieve the
Resources Planning Act of 1965
Resources Council and River
Objectives of the Water
Community and
General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C.
Economic Development Oiv.
E0172F4 Fid: 13B, 8H, 488*, 48G GRAI7802
31 Oct 77 17p*
Rept No: CED-78-1
Monitor: 18
Abstract*. The report reviews selected activities of the Water
Resources Council and river basin commissions to assess their
progress in implementing the Water Resources Planning Act of
1965. The study concentrates on the Council's responsibilities
to review o'ans submitted by river basin commissions. These
responsibilities are (1) to determine both the adequacy of the
plans and their ability to contribute to national water needs
and (2) to make recommendations to the President, for
transmittal to the Congress, about Fedaral projects and new
Federal policies and programs. The study states that the
Council and the river basin commissions have made only limited
progress in achieving these responsibilities and that they
need to further define and implement (1) the planning and
coordination goals of the Council and the river basin
commissions, (2) the means for accomplishing these goals, and
(3) the role of the Council and the fiver basin commissions in
attaining these goals.
Descriptors: *River basin development
Organizations, Government policies.
Objectives, Water conservation,
development, National government, State government, Loca
Commerce, Improvement, Research projects
*Water resources,
Recommendations,
Economic cevelopment, Land
government,
I dent i f iers~:
NTISGAO
Water needs, Water Resource Planning Act of 1965,
PB-273 552/OST NTIS Prices: PC A02/MF A01
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Issues and Opinions on the Social Effects of Water A! location
for Coal Development in the Yellowstone River Drainage
Montana State
Center ,*0ffi ce
D.C.
Univ., Bozeman. Water Resources Research
of Water Research and Technology, Washington,
Completion rept .
AUTHOR: Faulkner, Lee G.
D1941H4 Fid: 13B, 8H , 48G, 43F, 68 GRAI7710
Jul 76 187p
Rept No: MUvJWRRC-78
Project: OWRT-C~S303(5230)
Monitor: OWRT-C-6303(5230) (1 )
Abstract: The results of this study define issues of major
concern to decision makers, water users, and residents of the
Yellowstone River drainage region. These issues revolve around
the possible effects of allocation of water from the study
area to the coal development industry. Water use issues
include potential impacts on water quantity, in-stream flow,
water quality, and groundwater, water needs of reclamation,
major water development and water rights. Social Issues
include rapid population growth, lifestyle changes, economic
impacts, impacts on the Indian reservations, loss of local
control and increases in crime. Policy questions explored in
the study include attitudes toward the handling of coal
development issues and information by state and local
authorities, levels of coal development, and alternate means
of shipping coal. Implications for policy are drawn from the
results of the residents' survey.
Descriptors: *Water consumption, *Water supply, *Coal mining,
•Yellowstone River Basin, Availability, Agriculture,
Industrial water, Water quality management, Policies, Social
effect, Attitude surveys, Public opinion, Reservoirs, Economic
impact, American Indians, Crimes, Population growth, Montana,
Wyoming
Identifiers: Environmental protection, NTISDIOWRT
PB-263 484/SST NTIS Prices: PC A09/MF AOt
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Laws Relating to Industrial and Agricultural Activities
Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium, Ocean Springs,
Miss.*Mississippi Univ., University. Law Center.*Nationa1
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Rockville, Md. Office
of Sea Grant.
Preliminary draft.
C44448! Fid: 050, 05C, 138, 920, 96, 48B, 36M GRAI7510
1973 49p
Rept No: MASGP-74-035
Monitor: NQAA-75021811
Prepared by Mississippi Univ., University. Law Center.
Abstract: The volume is one of ten representing a compilation
of Mississippi laws which most significantly affect the use
and development of the state's marine and coastal zones.
Various state, county, and local agencies are charged with
implementing a policy of balanced economic development between
agriculture and industry. The Mississippi Department Of
Agriculture nas general supervision over all agriculture and
agricultural commodities within the state. Management of water
resources encompasses a wide area of activities. Extensive
legal citations are presented.
Descriptors: *Law(Jurisprudence), *Economic development,
*Coasts, *Mississippi, Administrative law, Industries, Land
use, Agriculture, Public law, Water resources, Project
planning, Government, Land acquisition
Identifiers: Sea Grant program, NTISCOiV.NQA
COM-75-10326/7ST NTIS Prices: PC A03/IWF A01
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Legal-Political History of Water Resource Development in the
Upper Colorado River Basin. Part I. Summary of the Legislative
History of the Colorado River Storage Project. Part II. The
Legal-Political History of Water Resource Development
Upper Colorado River Basin. Part I. Summary of the Legi
History of the Colorado River Storage Project. Part II. The
Politics of Water Resource Development in the Upper Colorado
Politics
River Basin
Lake Powell Research Project, Los Angeles, Cal i f .**Cal i fornia
Univ., Los Angeles. *National Science Foundation, Washington,
D.C. Research Applied to National Needs.
AUTHOR: Weatherford. Gary D.; Nichols, Phillip; Mann, Dean E.
Fid: 13B, 50, 488, 92D GRAI7706
62p
Bui 1-4
Monitor: NSF/RA/E-74-384
Prepared by California Univ.
D1344G3
Sep 74
Rept No:
Los Angeles.
the
Abstract: This study is in two parts. Part I chronicles
dominant events of the legislative history of the Colorado
River Storage Project Act of 1956. The major political and
emanating from the Colorado River Compact of
in the 1956 Act are identified. Part II
approaches these historical events analytically from the
persoective of political science. The persistence
distributive politics, in the face of increasing pressure
legal decisions
1922 and result ing
a more 'regulator' mode of deci sion-maMng, is discussed
of
for
in
the context of some of the current problems such as water
quality of the river. Also, several unresolved issues of
public policy concerning Colorado River management are posed.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Legislat ion, *Colorado River
Basin, History, Law(Jurisprudence), Political science, Land
use, Decision making. Policies, Water rights, Economic
development, Lake Powell, Utah
Identifiers: Colorado River Storage Act of 1956,
research project, NTISNSFRA
P8-261 674/6ST NTIS Prices: PC A04/MF A01
Lake Powel1
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Lower Sheyenne Riven Basin, Water, Land, People
Month Dakota Water Resources Research Inst. Fargo.*0ffice of
Water Research and Technology, Washington, D.C. North Dakota
Agricultural Experiment Station, Fargo.*Sheyenne River Basin
Research Team, N. Dak.
Completion rept.
AUTHOR: Barker, William T,
Nelson, Wi11iam C.
C5871A1 Fid: 13B, 63D, 91H GRAI7605
Sep 74 121p
Rept No: W1-222-005-75
Contract: 01-14-31-0001-4116
Project: OWRT-B-029-NDAK
Monitor! OWRT-B-029-NOAK(1)
Also pub. as North Dakota Agricultural Experiment Station,
Fargo, Research rept. no. 55. Prepared in cooperation with
Sheyenne River Basin Research Team, N. Dsk.
Abstract: Rivers in the Northern Great Plains are carrying
increasing pollutant concentrations as the density of human
and livestock populations and intensity of land cultivation
increase. The major emphasis of this muIti-disciplinary
project is to quantitatively determine the relationships among
land, people, and wats-r Quality; and to evaluate th% impact of
alternative means to increase water quality. Activities during
the first year of the project included: (1) Mapping of the
land use of the complete basin; (2) mapping the surface
geology of the upper portion of the basin; (3) periodic
testing of the river water for 22
mapping of population densities;
socioeconomic characteristics of
statistical analysis of the relationshio among the water
quality indicators and basin descriptors. Water quality
indicators frequently exceeded established pollution
standards. The variation in water quality was related to flow
rates, temperature, density of human and livestock
populations, and the intensity of land cultivation.
Descriptors: *Land use, *Water pollution, *Sheyenne River
Basin, Water quality, Livestock, Agricultural wastes,
Geological surveys, Mapping, Concentration(Composition),
Population(Statistics), Social welfare, Economic development,
Statistical analysis. Standards, Mathematical models, Flow
rate. Stream flow, Hydrogeology, North Dakota
quality indicators; (4)
(5) description of
tha basin; and (6)
Identi flers:
NTISDIOWRT
Northern Great Plains Region(United States)
PB-248 068/9ST NTIS Prices: PC A06/MF A01
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Multiobjective Interagency Study of the Bear River Basin Water
and Related Land Resources. (Utah)
Utah Div. of Water Resources, Salt Lake City.
Comprehensive water Planning Program.
F0071D1 Fid: 138, 488, 68D, 91H GRAI7901
Dec 76 169p
Monitor: 18
Abstract: This study included the formulation and evaluation
of plans for use and development of water and related land
resources. This report includes an inventory of basic resource
data and projected population and associated needs over time,
with a National Economic Development Plan, a regional
development plan, and an environmental quality plan.
Descriptors: *Land use, *Water resources, *Bear River Basin,
Inventories, Populations, Economic development, Regional
planning, Climatology, Wildlife, Recreation, Erosion,
Geomorohology, Irrigation, Local government, Environmental
impacts, Pernography, Mineral deposits, Constraints, Social
effect, Benefit cost analysis, Evaluation
Identifiers: NTISSLLC
PB-286 282/9ST NTIS Prices: PC A08/MF A01
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People and the Sound. Marine Transportation Planning Report
New England River Basins Commission, Boston, Mass.*Maritime
Administration, Washington, D.C.*Department of Transportation,
Washington, O.C.*Corps of Engineers, Waltham, Mass. New
England Div.
Final rept.
C5465E3
Aug 75
Rept No:
Moni tor:
Report
Fid! 130, 05C, 8SB, 91H, 96A, 86L GRAI7525
S9p
LISS-08
18
on Long Island Sound Stuay. Prepared
with Maritime Administration, Washington, O.C.,
of Transportation, Washington. O.C. Prepared
Engineers, Waltham, Mass. New England Div.
in cooperation
and Department
by Corps of
Paper copy also available
233-SET, PCS61.00.
1 n
set of 14 reports as PB-245
Abstract: A planning report describes the marine
transportation element of the Long Island Sound regional
study. It is part of the final report of the study, which
outlines a strategy for securing the balanced conservation and
development of natural resources of the Sound and its
shoreline in both New York and Connecticut. The plan for Long
Island Sound is an increment of the New England River Basins
Cotr.mission comprehensive, coordinated joint plan for the water
and related land resources of its region, which includes New
England and the New York portions of Long Island Sound.
Descriptors: *Marine transportation, *Regional planning, *Long
Island Sound, Ports, Harbors, Conservation, Development, Water
resources, New England, New YorX, Land development, Economic
forecasting, Problem solving, Evaluation, Recommendations,
Cargo transportation, Commerce
Identifiers: NriSNERSC, NTISDOTG, NTISCOMMA
PB^-245 241/5ST NTlS Prices: PC A05/MF A01
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Plan of Study Subproject Report for a Case Study of a Federal
Expenditure on a Water and Related Land Resource Project,
Boise Project, Idaho and Oregon
Idaho Univ., Moscow. Water Resources Research Inst.*0ffice of
Water Research and Technology, Washington, D.C.
Completion rept.
AUTHOR: Haas, Wayne T.; Schermerhorn, Richard
C5872E2 Fid: 13B, 08H, 05C, 488, 48G, 96 GRAI7605
dun 74 47p
Project: OWRT-C-4202(9061)
Monitor: OWRT-C-4202O061 ) (2)
See also PB-248 150,
Abstract! The purpose of this study is to present an analysis
of the role of the federal government in water development in
the Boise Project of Idaho and Oregon. As a result of the
study and two related support studies, conclusions and
recommendations are presented and discussed.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Land development, *Boise River
Basin, National government, Federal budgets, Expenses,
Demand(Economics), Management, Decision making, Recommendatio-
ns, Project planning, Water consumption, Objectives
Idents,fiersi. Boise project, Boise(Idaho), Water utilization.
Government supports, NTISDIOWRT
PB-248 149/7ST NTIS Prices: PC A03/MF A01
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Problem Identification and RanKing -
Basin Planning Process
An Assessment of a Riven
Minnesota Univ..
Center.**I11inois
Minneapolis. Water Resources
Univ. at Urbana-Champaign. Dept
Research
of Urban
Researcn and
and Regional PI anning. *0f f ice of Water
Technology, Washington, D.C.
AUTHOR: Blair, 1. P.; Harris, A.; Felstehauser
T.; Austin, T. A.
E1974C4 Fid: 133, 5A, 91H, 70S GRAI7819
Jan 78 129p
Rept No: REGIONAL RESEARCH SER-2
Contract: 01-14-31-0001-5140
Project: OWRT-B-057-IA
Monitor: 0«RT-B-057-IA(2)
Prepared in cooperation with Illinois Univ.
Urbana-Champaign. Dept. of Urban and Regional Planning.
Lamm, W.
at
Abstract:
process of
reviewed,
of efficiency
disciplines:
The comprehensive, coordinated and joint planning
the Upper Mississippi River Basin Commission is
and the process is analyzed according to parameters
and equity representative of four research
economics, political science, engineering and
planning. Revisions to the
recommended, as derived from
existing planning process are
the multi-disciplinary analysis.
Descriptors: *River basin development, *Mississippi River
Basin, *Regiona1 planning. Assessments, Ranking, Evaluation,
Benefit cost analysis, Income, Optimization, Citizen
participation, Decision making, Systems analysis, Linear
programming, Scheduling, Budgeting, Improvement
Identifiers: Tradeoffs, NTISDIOWRT
PB-282 100/7ST NT IS Prices: PC A07/MF A01
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I Proceedings of the Conference on Interdisciplinary Analysis of
Mater Resource Systems Held at Colorado University, Boulder,
Colorado, on June 19-22, 1973
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Colorado, on June 19-22, 1973
American Society of Civil Engineers, New York.*0ffice of Water
Research and Technology, Washington, D.C.
AUTHOR: Flack, J. Ernest
C5944H3 Fid: 13B, 08H, 05C, 488, 680 GRAI7606
1975 41 Op
Contract: DI-14-31-0001-3757
Project: OKRT-X-126(3757)
Monitor: OWRT-x-126(3757)(1)
Abstract'- The Water Resources Systems Committee of the
American Society of Civil Engineers' Technical Council on
Water Resources Planning and Management saw a critical need
for developing an interdisciplinary approach to water
resources development. This Conference was intended as an
effective means of advancing the systems approach in this
area. Formal papers on six interdisciplinary efforts were
selected as case studies, around which discussions were built.
These six papers include interdisciplinary studies on: (1)
largo reservoirs in Africa; (2) limnological modeling of the
Great Lakes: (3) geothermal development; (4) the North
Atlantic Regional Water Resources Study; (5) Corps of
Engineers planning experience in the St. Louis-Maiine Creek;
and (6) University research in the Wisconsin River and the
Lower Fraser River (Brit. Columbia) water quality studies.
Discussions are given after each paper. Included also is an
introductory article on the interdisciplinary aspects of water
resources planning and management.
DeacriptorsU. *Water resources, *Water quality management,
*Meetings, Systems engineering, Multiple purpose reservoirs,
Africa, Limnology, Mathematical models, Great Lakes, Geothermy
, Economic development, Ma line Creek, Civil engineering,
Social welfare, Project planning, Law(Jurisprudence),
Interactions, Decision making, Missouri, United States,
California, Wisconsin River, Fraser River
Identifiers: North Atlantic Region(United States), Saint
Louis(Missouri), British Columbia, NTISDIOWRT
PB-248 596/9ST NTIS Prices: PC A18/MF A01
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Report of Testing Special Task Force Evaluation Procedures
Water Resource Council for Poteau River Watershed, Scott
County, Arkansas and Le Flore County, Oklahoma
Son Conservation Service, Washington, D.C.*Water Resources
Council, Washington, D.C. (308 099)
C7211J1 Fid: 138, 5C d7621
Dec 69 41 p
Sponsored in part by Water Resources Council, Washington, D.C.
Abstract: The report describes the objectives of the Soil
Conservation Service Test Team in applying methods ana
procedures for evaluating water and related land development
and to give the physical and economic aspects of the Poteau
Watershed.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *land development, *Poteau
Watershed, Economic factors, Project planning. Benefit cost
analysis, Income, Regional planning. Objectives,
Recommendations, Standards, Arkansas, Oklahoma
Identifiers: Scott County(Arkansas), Le Flore County(Oklahoma)
, NTISUSWRC
PB-255 910/2ST NTIS Prices: PC A03/MF A01
1-38
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Rocky Mountain Environmental Research. Quest for a Future.
Problems and Research Priorities in the RocXy Mountain Region
Eisenhower Consortium for Western Environmental Forestry
Research, Fort Collins, Colo."Forest Service, Washington,
D.C.*£nv/jledge in each field, the gaps in knowledge, and
thus the major needs to be researched. Each leader prepared a
documented report of the findings. A draft of each task force
report was sent for review and the review comments were
incorporated where pertinent into the final reports presented
here.
D&scriptors: *Environmental impacts, Assessments, Forecasting,
Management analysis, Mineral deposits, Mines(Excavations),
Human ecology, Technology, Utilization, Land development,
Recreation, Rural areas, Economic impact, Structual timber,
Forage grasses, Mathematical models, Water resources, Sewage
treatment, Watersheds, Irrigation, River basins, Flood control
, Desalting, Cloud seeding, Population growth
Identifiers: Ecosystems, Energy resources, Environmental
impact assessments, *Rocky Mountain Region(Un)ted States),
NTISEPAO, NTISNSFRA, NTISAGFS
PB-256 446/6ST NTIS Prices: PC A13/MF A01
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Water Supply and Wastewater in Coastal Areas: Proceedings of
Southeastern Conference Held on April 2-4, 1975
North Carolina Water Resources Research Inst.,
Raleigh.*National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
Rockville, Md. Office of Sea Grant.*Coastal Plains Center for
Marine Development Services, Washington, D.C.
AUTHOR: Stewart, James M.
C5874A4 Fid: 138, 43B*, 680*. 91H, 86M GRAI7605
1975 194p*
Monitor: NOAA-75120106
Also pub. as North Carolina Univ. Sea Grant reprint no. 83.
Sponsored in part by Coastal Plains Center for Marine
Development Services, Washington, D.C.
Abstract: The article details the proceedings of the
southeastern conference on Water Supply and Wastewater in
Coastal Areas. The Conference was conducted to review the
state of the art of proper planning and management of water
supply and wastewater disposal in coastal areas. Special
attention was paid to defining technological and institutional
alternatives, their relation to land use planning and
environmental protection, and to identifying those water and
wastewater problems of significance in coastal areas. A major
problem that was discussed at the conference is associated
with increasing population growth and economic development in
these areas is the provision of safe and adequate water
supplies and management of wastewater discharges in a manner
consistent *ith public health and welfare and environmental
protection. Both the presentations and discussion sessions are
included in the report.
Descriptors: *Water supply, *Water pollution, *Coasts,
*Meetings, *Regional planning, Waste water, Reviews, Water
quality management, Sewage disposal, Technology assessment,
Land use zoning, Environmental impacts, Population growth,
Economic development, Public health, Social welfare, Water
resources, Sanitary engineering, Project planning, Ocean
environments, Financing
Identifiers:
NTISCOMNOA
Sea Grant program, *Environmental protection,
PB-248 297/4ST NTIS Prices: PC A09/MF A01
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The Winooski Workshops: An Assessment of Specified Workshop
Techniques for Stimulating and Improving Public Involvement in
Water Resources
Vermont Univ., Burlington. Water Resources Research
Center.*0ffice of Water Research and Technology, Washington,
D • C •
Completion rept.
AUTHOR: Wi Im, Ann S. ; Thomas, Kristi L.
C7602H1 Fid: 138, 5K, 488, 68D, 92C, 92B, 43F GRAI7624
1975 99p
Contract: DI-14-31-1-5046
Project: OWRT-A-020-VT
Monitor: OWRT-A-020-VT(1)
Abstract: Public participation is a dynamic communication
process within a social system, a source of information and
support for social and economic goals. Current interest in
Citizen participation is sparked by changes in social values
and more specifically by a change in the public's perception
of government responsibility. Vermont is drawing up its River
Basin Water Quality plans for the major rivers of the state.
Agencies have called for citizen input. This provided an
opportunity to test a commonly used workshop technique for
invo'ving citizens against a second format which involved a
more socia 1-psycho 1ogical orientation' and small group
problem-serving techniques. The purpose of this project was to
test the hypothesis that differences in environmental settings
reflect, and are reflected in citizen motivation levels to
become involved in water resource decision-making.
Descriptors: "Citizen participation, *Water resources, *Social
communication, *River basin development, *Water quality,
*WinoosM River, Decision making, Economic development,
Attitude surveys, Social psychology, Questionnaires,
Environments, Vermont
Identifiers-: NTISOIOWRT
PB-257 545/4ST NTIS Prices: PC A05/MF A01
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1.5 Alphabetical Listing of Methodology Abstracts
1. An Analysis of Federal Water Resource Planning and Evaluation
Procedures.
2. An Analysis of Water Resource Benefit Determination Methods with
Special Reference to the Consumnes River Division Project.
3. Analytical Techniques for Planning Complex Water Resource Systems.
4. A Bargaining Approach for Programming Least-Cost Waste Treatment
Along a River.
5. Comprehensive Framework Study Missouri River Basin. Volume 7.
Appendix. Plan of Development and Management of Water and Related
Land Resources.
6. Development of Regional Supply Functions and a Least-Cost Model
for Allocating Water Resources in Utah: A Parametric Linear
Programming Approach.
7. Economic Optimization and Simulation Techniques for Management
of Regional Water Resource Systems.
8. Estimation of Outdoor Recreational Values,
9. Evaluating Tisza River Basin Development Plans Using Multiattributes
Utility Theory.
10. Federal Evaluation of Resource Investments: A Case Study.
11. The Impact of Energy Resource Development on Water Resource
Allocations.
12. Improving Institutional Arrangements for Water Development in the
State of Washington: Developmental and Environmental Trade-Offs
and Constrai-nts.
13. Issues Related to Interfacing Water Resource Planning and Land Use
Planning: Development and Application of Quantitative Procedures.
14. Methodology to Evaluate Alternative Coastal Zone Management Policies:
Application in the Texas Coastal Zone. Example Application III,
Environmental and Economic Impacts of Recreational Community Develop-
ment, Mustang Island and North Padre Island, Volume II - Appendix.
15. Mixed Integer Programming Models for Water Resources Management.
16. Multiple Objective Redesign of the Big Walnut Project,
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17. Multiple Objectives Planning Water Resources. Volume 1. Natural
Resources Series Number 5.
18. Ohio River Basin Comprehensive Survey. Volume XII. Appendix K.
Development Program Formulation.
19. Optimal Solution to the Timing, Sequencing, and Sizing of Multiple
Reservoir Surface Water Supply Facilities When Demand Depends on Price.
20. Optimization Model of Energy Related Economic Development in the Upper
Colorado River Basin under Conditions of Water and Energy Resource
Scarcity.
21. Plan for Development of the Land and Water Resources of the Southeast
River Basins. Appendix 10. Hydrology. Appendix 11. Engineering
and Cost.
22. Planning of Regional Water Resource Systems for Urban Needs.
23. Proceedings: The Connecticut River System: A Workshop on Research
Needs and Priorities Held at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst
on April 24 and 25, 1975.
24. Project Evaluation in Water Resources: Budget Constraints.
25. River Basin Simulation as a Means of Determining Operating Policy
for a Water Control System.
26. Significant .Interrelationships Between Electric Power Generation and
Natural and Developed Resources in the Connecticut River Basin.
27. Systems Simulation of Economic Factors and Their Relation to the
Water System of Wyoming's Platte River Basin.
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1.6 Methodology Abstracts
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Procedures"* ^ re°Sra> W3teP Res°^e Planning and Evaluation
| 340)i9an UniV'' An" ArbOP- SCh°°' of Na^ral
I
I water resources plan and 0'™-=,.*"— *",'•"'• a sel or new
published ay thTspec a? TaS FOP J « ®valuatfon Procedures
used a designated stretch of t£T fophJune ^SS. The seminar
and Sayres, Pennsy?van a as ?hfa^ ?etWee" Pittst°n
Investigation. vanta as the focal point of the
dun 70 1i4p
Monitor: 18
Identifiers: NTISUSWRC
l>8-255 498/8ST uris Prices: PC A06/MF ADI
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An Analysis of Water Resource Benefit Determination Methods
with Special Reference to the Cosumnes River Division Project
California Univ., Davis. Dept. of Agricultural Economics. (
405 609)
Interim rept.
AUTHOR: Tratz. Robert F. Or; Dean, Gerald W. ; Carter, Harold
0.
C2163C3 Fid: 13B, 5C, 488 GRAI7404
Jun 73 149p
Contract: 01-14-06-200-5075-A
Monitor: 18
Abstract: The general objective of this study is to formulate,
construct, and test a theoretical model which will allow
measurement of the magnitude of net income and employment
impacts of a multipurpose regional water resource development.
This model should improve upon the current method of
determining municipal and industrial (MSI) water supply
benefits (i.e., most likely single purpose alternative).
Related oojsctives are to explore the feasibility of basing
municipal and industrial water supply benefits on the value or
demand for water rather than, its cost, and to examine the
tradeoffs among competing uses of water.
Descriptors: *Benefit cost analysis, *River basin development,
"Water resources, Cosumnes River, Multiple purpose reservoirs,
California, Economic development, Regional planning,
Methodology-; Economic models, Employment
Identifiers: BR
PB-226 029/7 NTIS Prices: PC E06/MF A01
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1 T8Chniques for- Planning Complex Water Resourc.
Texas Water Develooment Board, Austin. System3 Engineering-
Summary rept.
C2951H2 Fid: 138, 488 GRAI7414
Apr 74 66p
Rspt No: 183
Contract: DI-14-31-Q001-3360
Project: OwRR-A-2070(3360)
Moni tor: CWRR-c-2070(3360) ( 3)
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I _,_.._._, Aiii^aliUll, We
temand(Economics), Water rights, Cost analysis
Identi f ie-rs: Water utilization, water requirements, NTISOWRR
8 PB-232 158/6 NTIS Prices: PC A04/MF A01
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tIhe neP°nt summa^zes the research experience of the
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A Bargaining Approach for Programming Least-Cost Waste
Treatment Along a River
North Carolina Water Resources Research Inst., Raleigh.*0ffIce
of Water Research and Technology, Washington, D.C.
AUTHOR: Airan, Lalita D.; Seagraves, J. A.; Airan, Damodar S.
C5801B3 Fid: 138, 05C, 680*, 96A*, 43F GRAI7604
Jul 75 71p*
Rept No: UNC-WRRI-75-109
Contract: 01-14-31-0001-3952
Project: OWRT-8-054-NC
Monitor: OWRT-B-054-NC(4)
Abstract: A mode) is developed for minimizing waste treatment
costs to achieve a given stream standard. An optimum set of
treatment levels is calculated using available information
about the cost of waste treatment and the effects of waste in
different reaches with an assumed procedure for bargaining
among waste dischargers. Each discharger is assumed to be
responsible for the quality of water in his reach. The optimum
solution suggests an optimum set of discharge permits and
charges. However, it does not favor any one administrative
system or distribution of costs. The model is run to find
optimum or least-cost waste treatment levels for the Neuse
River of North Carolina. The optimum solution has much less
treatment than is currently being used. The costs of present
waste treatment are estimated to be $3.7 million per year
while the cost of the optimum set of treatment levels is only
$1.09 mi 11 ion.
Descriptors: *Sewage treatment, *Water quality management,
*River basin development, *Regional planning, Mathematical
models, Optimization, Licenses, Cost comparison, Water quality
, Estimates, Neuse River, North Carolina, Cost analysis
Identifiers: NTISDIOWRT
PB-247 108/4ST NT IS Prices: PC A04/MF A01
1-48
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Comprehensive Framework Study Missouri River Basin. Volume 7.
Appendix. Plan of Development and Management of Water and
Related Land Resources
Missouri Basin Inter-Agency Committee (410365)
D3571K4 Fid: 13B, 8H, 488, 48G GRAI7724
Jun 69 290p
Monitor: 18
Original contains color plates: All DDC and NTIS reproductions
will be in black and white. See a'so Volume 2, AD-A043 933.
Availability: Paper copy available from Supt. of Documents,
GPO, Washington, D. C. 20402. HC $5.25.
Abstract: The overall objective was the formulation of a
framework plan which would provide a broad guide to the best
uses, or combination of uses, of water and related land
resources to meet foreseeable short" and long-term needs.
Underlying this overall objective, consideration was given to
(>1) the timely development and management of these resources
a's essential aids to the economic development and growth of
the basin; (2) the preservation of resources, as appropriate,
to insure that they will be available for tneir best use as
needed; and (3) the well-being of all the people as the
overriding determinant.
Descriptors: *6asins(Geographic), *Water resources, *Planning,
*Cost analysis, Natural resources, Land use, Economic analysis
, Forecasting, Agriculture, Irrigation systems, Water supplies
, Municipalities, Industries, Water quality, Flood control,
Dams, Reservoirs, Elsctric power production, Recreation
Identifiers: *Missouri River Basin, *Regional planning, Water
quality management, NTISDODXA
AO-A043 941/4ST NTIS Prices: MF A01
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Development of Regional Supply Functions and a Least-Cost
Model— for Allocating Water Resources in Utah: A Parametric
Linear Programming Approach
Utah Water Research Lab Logan*Institute for Water Resources
(Army), Fort Belvoir, Va. (405725)
Final rept.
AUTHOR: King, Alton B.; Andersen, Jay C.; Clyde, Calvin G.;
Hoggan, Daniel H.
C3882A2 Fid: 138, 483 GRAI7502
Uun 72 169p
Rept No: PRWG100-2
Contract: DACW31-71-C-0063
Monitor: IWR-74-4-Supp-2
Abstract: The report develops supply functions for
agricultural use in ten hydrologic study units in Utah by
parametric linear programming. The shadow-price of imported
water to each study unit was determined to show the possible
economic consequence of interbasin transfer. In general,
imported water is of little or no value if water presently
being evaporated from Great Salt Lake is available for
diversion upstream. A statewide linear programming allocation
model was developed to meet projected requirements, subject to
various hydrologic constraints and limits on diversions. The
primary factor affecting interbasin transfer of Colorado River
water is the degree to which evaporation occurs from Great
Salt Lake. (Author)
Descriptors: *Water supplies, *Systems analysis, Allocations,
Regions, Optimization, Mines(Excavations), Salvage, Linear
programming, Restraint, Mathematical models, Hydrology,
Evaporation, Rivers, Economics, Lakes, Utah
Identifiers: ""Imported water, Great Salt lake, Colorado River,
Intergovernmental relationships, *Water demand, NTISOODA
AO/A-000 822/7SL NTIS Prices: PC A08/MF A01
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Economic Optimization and Simulation Techniques for Management
of Regional Water Resource Systems
Texas Water Development Board, Austin.
Completion ropt.
C2945H2 Fid: 136, 488 GRAI7414
Feb 74 60p
Rept No: Rept. no. 179
Contract: DI-14-31-0001-3360
Project: OWRR-C-1070(3360)
Monitor: OWRR-C-2070(3360)(2)
Abstract: The research represents the final phase of a
three-phase research project leading towards the development
of a computer-oriented planning system for use in planning
large, multibasin systems of reservoirs and connecting river
reaches and pump-canals. Specifically, the research defines a
methodology for finding an optimal size, operation, and
staging of construction of a .'vater resource system with highly
variable inflows and demands that are increasing over the
planning horizon and assessing the impacts of such a system.
The computer programs developed during this research are
designed to analyze a problem on a monthly basis using
historic or stochastic hydrologic input data sequences, a
specified demand build-up period, and an economic life as
defined by the user.
Descriptors: *water resources, *River basin development,
*Project planning, Texas, Water supply, Models, Irrigation,
Economics, Water quality, Systems analysis, Regional planning,
Agriculture, Computer programming
Identifiers: NTISOWRR
PB-232 066/1 NTIS Prices: PC A04/MF A01
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Estimation of Outdoor Recreational Values
Florida Univ., Gainesville. Dept. of Food and Resource
Economics.
AUTHOR: Gibbs, Kenneth C.; McGuire, John F. Ill
C3083I2 Fid: 5H, 92C GRAI7416
Jul 73 62p
Rept No: Economics-53
Contract: 01-14-31-0001-3267
Project: OWRR-8-007-FIA
Monitor: OWRR-B-OQ7-FLM11)
Abstract: A project was initiated at the University of Florida
to estimate the value of water in alternative uses and to
determine the optimum allocation among the alternative uses.
Basically, the study was designed to develop and test two
types of water allocation models: linear programming and
simulation. In order to allocate water efficiently, values of
alternative uses must be estimated. It is the purpose of this
report to: (1) present the procedures used to derive estimates
of economic value, and (2) derive the economic value of 'water
oriented' outdoor recreation in the Kissimrnae River Basin.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Recreation, Recreation
facilities, Travel, River basin development. Regional planning
, Cost analysis, Mathematical models, Florida, Kissimmee River
Basin
Identifiers: NTISOWRR
PB-232 503/3 NTIS Prices: PC E03/MF A01
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Evaluating Tisza River Basin Development Plans Using
Multiattpibutes Utility Theory
International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
(Austria).
Research rept.
AUTHOR: Keeney, Ralph L.; Wood, Eric F.; David, Laszlo;
Csontos, Kornel
E0612L4 Fid: 13B, 8H, 483, 48G GRAI7807
Mar 76 30p
Rept No: CP-76-3
Monitor: 18
Abstract: Selecting a plan to develop the water resources of a
region involves the consideration- of economic, environmental,
social, and technical objectives. Twelve attributes are
defined to indicate the degree to which these objectives are
achieved in the Tisza River basin of Hungary. A preliminary
multi-attribute utility function is assessed over these
attributes. This is combined with existing information
describing ttie possible consequences of five alternative
development plans to yield an overall rating of their
desirability. The utility function explicitly indicates the
preference tradeoffs among attributes. Discussion indicates
further uses of the utility function in the planning and
evaluation processes.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Tisza River, *River basin
development, *Hungary, Evaluation, Assessments, Objectives,
Economic factors, Environmental impacts. Social effect,
Project planning, Theorems, Drainage, Mathematical models,
Water qua.lity, Water storage, Floods, Recreation, Land use,
Values
Identifiers: "Tradeoffs, Energy requirements, NTISIIASA
PB-276 066/SST NTIS Prices: PC A03/MF A01
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Federal Evaluation of Resource Investments: A Case Study
Cornell Univ., Ithaca, N.Y. Water Resources and Marine
Sciences Center. *Cornel 1 Univ., Ithaca, N.Y. Dept. of
Agricultural Economtcs.*New York State Coll. of Agriculture,
Ithaca.
Technical rept
AUTHOR: Kalter
Schultz, David
C7205J2
Feb 70
Rept No:
Moni tor:
Also pub.
Economics,
Robert J.; libby, Larry
A.; Shabman, Leonard A.
138, 5C GRAI7621
W.; Hinman, Robert C.
Fid!
100p
TR-24
18
as Cornell Univ., Ithaca, N.Y. Dept. of Agricultural
E. Res-313. Prepared in cooperation with New
A.
York State Coll. of Agriculture, Ithaca.
Abstract: The purpose of the report Is to further improve and
perfect the standards, criteria and procedures to be used for
water resource development and management for the proposal for
the Stonewall Jackson Reservoir on West Fork River in West
Virginia.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Land development, *Project
planning, Investments, Water quality, Environmental impacts,
Recreation, Economic impact, Flood control, Regional planning,
W«st Virginia, West Fork River
Identifiers: *Stonewall Jackson Reservoir, NTISUSWRC
PB-255 788/2ST NTlS Prices: PC A05/MF A01
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The Impact
Allocations
of Energy Resource Development on Water Resource
Utah Water Research Lab., Logan.*0ffice of Water Research and
Technology, Washington, DC.
AUTHOR: Keith, John £.; Turna, K. S.J Padunchai, Sums!;
Narayanan, Rangesan
FOOG4C4 Fid: 10A, 97 GRAI7901
May 73 109p
Rept No: UWRL-P-78/005
Contract: 01-14-34-0001-6125
Project: OWRT-B-131-UTAH
Monitor: GWRT-B-131-UTAH(1)
Abstract: A linear programming mode) of the agricultural and
energy sectors of Utah was used to examine the economically
efficient allocation of water between agriculture and energy.
Data :'isre collected for agricultural returns, costs, and water
requirements; energy returns, costs, and water requirements;
and water supply costs.
Descriptors: *Energy source development, *Water resources,
*Resource allocation, Utah, Coal, Crude oil, Natural gas, Coal
gasification, Coal liquefaction, Oil shale, Irrigation, Energy
transport, Electric power generation,
Economic impact, Mathematical models,
Allocations, Planning, Scenarios
Identifiers": NTISDIOWRT
Colorado River Basin,
Linear programming,
P8-286 135/9ST NTlS Prices: PC A06/MF A01
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Improving Institutional Arrangements for Water Development in
the State of Washington: Developmental and Environmental
Trade-Offs and Constraints
Washington Univ., Seattle. Inst. of Governmental
Research.*0ffice of Water Research and Technology, Washington,
D.C.
Project completion rept. 1 Jul 72-30 Jun 75
AUTHOR: Pealy, Robert H.
D2971U2 Fid: 138, 48B, 91H GRAI7718
Jun 76 193p
Contract: DI-14-31-0001-3848
Project: OWRT-A-057-WASH
Monitor: OWRT-A-057-WASH(1)
Abstract-" The networks of institutional arrangements in this
study consist of federal, state, local, and regional
organizations, including the processes they use in planning
and developing the functions of irrigation, water supply,
electricity generation, navigation, flood control, soil
conservation, forest conservation, fish and wildlife
conservation and outdoor recreation. The networks are also
expected to trade off the values of water development with the
values of environmental protection and growth. Each of the
networks was originally designed to reach certain objectives:
comprehensive, multi-purpose, long-range planning and
development of river basins; economic efficiency; engineering
or technical efficiency; administrative efficiency; and
political consensus. The objective of environmental protection
was recently added, and, to a limited degree, growth control.
The networks have achieved only a moderate degree of success
in achieving the objectives.
Descriptors: *0rganizations, *Decision making, *Water
resources, *Washingtcn(State), State government, Project
planning, Water supply, Navigation, Flood control,
Conservation, Objectives, National government, Local
government, River basin development, Economic factors,
Recreation, Electric power plants, Management, Regional
planning
Identifiers: *Institutional framework, *Water management(Admi-
nistrative) , Tradeoffs, NTISOIOWRT
PB-267 919/9ST NTIS Prices: PC A09/MF A01
1-56
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Issues Related to Interfacing Water Resource Planning and Land
Use Planning: Development and Application of Quantitative
Procedures
INTASA, Menlo Park, Calif.*0ffice of Water Research and
Technology! Washington, D.C. (406 193)
Final rept. _ ,
AUTHOR: Davenport, S.; Jolissaint, C. H.; Betchart, w. B.,
Rosing, J.; Skurski, K.
00424B1 Fid: 138, 8H, 488*. 91H* GRAI7703
May 76 227p*
Rept No: IRP-74-01
Contract: 01-14-31-0001-5207
Project: OWRT-C-6057(5207)
Monitor: OWRT-C-6057(5207)(1)
(PC A11/MF A01)
Abstract1 The research addresses three of many requirements
for interfacing water and land resources planning: (1) Need to
coordinate separate resource planning activities and assign
regional, priorities; (2) need to relate environmental, social
and economic benefits and costs of community land use plans to
similar decision criteria at the regional water resources
planning level; (3) need to quickly convert land use
information into water resource requirements and costs.
Results include: (1) simplified quantitative procedures based
on regional water, land and mass balance relationships and,
demonstrated in the Platte River, Nebraska Level B regional
study; (2) an improved fiscal cost analysis procedure for
short term land use decisions based on economic, social and
environmental goals, demonstrated in Richmond, Calif.; (3)
extension of site development cost models to analyze housing
cost associated with community use policies, demonstrated in
Napa, Cali fornia.
Descriptors: nvater resources, *Land use, *Regional planning,
*River basin development, Cost analysis, Water flow, Social
effect, Water pollution control, Land development, Benefit
cost analysis, Community development, Mathematical models,
Environmental impacts, Requirements, Platte River, Economic
impact, Policies, Nebraska, California
Identifiers: Low flow augmentation, R1chmond(California),
Napa(California), NTISDIOWRT
PB-259 331/7ST NTIS Prices! PC A11/MF A01
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Methodology to Evaluate Alternative Coastal Zone Management
Policies: Application in the Texas Coastal Zone. Example
Application III, Environmental and Economic Impacts of
Recreational Community Development, Mustang Island and North
Padre Island. Volume II - Appendix
Texas Univ. at Austin. Center for Research in Water
Resources.*Texas Office of the Governor, Austin. Div. of
Planning Coordination.*National Science Foundation,
Washington, DC. Applied Science and Research Applications. (
406 294)
AUTHOR: Kier, Robert S.; Fruh, E. Gus
F0585D4 Fid: 138, 483 GRAI7908
1976 674p
Grant: NSF-AEN74-13590-A-01
Monitor: NSF/RA-761639
_See also Volume 1, PB-290 132._ Sponsored in part by Texas
Office of the Governor, Austin. Oiv. of Planning Coordination.
Abstract: This report on an example application of
environmental and economic impacts of recreational community
development on Mustang and North Padre Islands is a
continuation of a study to establish operational guidelines
for Texas Coastal Zone management. Chapters include population
projections for scenarios; assessment of recreational
population demands on Mustang and North Padre Islands with
mode! examples; geological aspects of barrier island
development; selected biological data, water needs and waste
generation of these islands; hydronamic and transport modeling
in barrier island communities; economic analysis of oarrier
island development; structural engineering calculations, and
environmental and economic impacts of employing the private
drive concept. Information is presented on land and water
resources, on currents, flooding, shoreline changes, and dune
studies. Descriptions of plants, animals and nutrient cycling
are given for selected biotopes such as beaches, salt marshes,
and grassflats. Mammals and birds indigenous to the islands
are described. Economic analysis includes soft-ware
development outlines of two program designs, FDISL and SOLVEX.
Descriptors: *Environmental impacts, *Economic impact,
*Community development, *Coastal zone management, *Mustang
Island, *North Padrs Island, Surveys, Populations,
Oemand(Economics), Mathematical models, Demography, Dunes,
Beaches, Water supply, Shores, Vegetation, Constraints,
Biological productivity, Wildlife, Benefit cost analysis,
Computer programming, Solid waste disposal, Ocean tides,
Hydrodynamics, Sewage treatment, Flooding, Nutrients, Texas,
Recreation
Identifiers: *Alternative planning, Salt marshes, SOLVEX
computer program, FDISL computer program, NTISNSFRA
PB-290 131/2ST NTIS Prices: PC A99/MF A01
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Mixed Integer Programming Models for Water Resources
Management
Utah Water Research lat>., Logan.*0ffice of Water Research and
Technology, Washington, D.C. (405 725)
Project completion rept. 1 Jul 76-31 Dec 77
AUTHOR: Finney, Brad; Grenney, William J.; Bishop, A. Bruce;
Hughes, Trevor C.
E0803I1 Fid: 13B, 630, 48G, 91H GRAI7809
Dec 77 292p
Rept No: PRWG-198-1
Contract: DI-14-34-0001-7132
Project: OWRT-B-145-UTAH
Monitor: OWRT-B-145-UTAH(1)
Abstract: A regional water quality control model is developed
by finking a steady-state water quality simulation model with
an optimization model. The ^ater quality simulation model can
be applied to complex river systems .vith both point and
nonpoint loads using multiple interdspendent pollution
parameters described by either linear or nonlinear equations.
Twelve water quality parameters can be modeled simultaneously:
Four nonconservat1ve constituents (or conservative
constituents if the decay rate is set equal to zero); coliform
bacteria (MPN); phosphorus; biochemical oxygen demand (BOD);
ammonia (NH3); nitrate (N03); dissolved oxygen (DO);
temperature (C); and algae. The water quality model is used to
generate constraint equations for the optimization model. The
optimization model is formulated as an integer programming
problem in which the integer decision variables are wastewater
treatment levels or diffuse source management practices to oe
determined for each load. The model ccnsidsrs the addition or
upgrading of /nastewater treatment with structural and
nonstructural schemes for both point and diffuse pollution
sources. A least cost solution is Found subject to water
quality standards at surveillance points.
Descriptors: *f?iver basin development, *Water quality
management, *Water supply, *Sewage treatment, *Regional
planning, Upgrading, Mathematical models, Optimization,
Coliform bacteria, Phosphorus, Ammonia, Algae, Dissolved gases
t- Oxygen, Biochemical oxygen demand, Nitrogen, Temperature,
Computer programs. Subroutines, Cost analysis, Jordan River,
Utah
Identifiers'- Path of pollutants, *Model studies, SSAM computer
program, NTISDIOWRT
PB-276 699/6ST NTIS Prices: PC A13/MF A01
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Multiple Objective Redesign of the Big Walnut Project
Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge. Dept. of Civil
Engineering.*Water Resources Council, Washington, D.C. (220
010)
AUTHOR: Major, David C.; Bravo, Carlos! Cohon, Oared; Grayman,
Walter; Harley, Brendan
C7204L3 Fid: 138, 5C GRAI7621
1 Apr 70 64p
Monitor: 18
Prepared in cooperation with Water Resources Council,
Washington, D.C.
Abstract; The purpose of the report is to discuss the theory
of multiple objective planning; provide background information
on the Big Walnut project; analyze benefit and cost accounting
by the Corps for their proposed project for the Big Walnut Oam
In Putnam County, Indiana.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Land development, *Project
planning, Economic impact, Benefit cost analysis, Water
quality, Flood control, Recreation, Environmental Impacts,
Regional planning, Standards, Big Walnut River, Indiana
Identifiers: Big Walnut Oam, Putnam County(Indiana), NTISUSWRC
, NT I SMI TEL
P8-255 685/OST NTIS Prices: PC A04/MF A01
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• Multiple Objectives Planning Water Resources. Volume 1
Natural Resources Series Number 5
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Idaho Research Foundation, Inc., Moscow.*0ffice of Water
Research and Technology, Washington, D.C.
AUTHOR: Micnalson, Edgar L.; Englebert, Ernest A.; Andrews,
Wade; Stratton, Charles R.
C7491H1 Fid: 138, 5C, 488, 68D, 50B, 70E GRAI7623
1974 66p
Project: OWRT-X-142(4259)
Monitor: OWRT-X-142(4259)(1 )
Proceedings of the UCOWR Workshop on Multiple Objective
Planning and Decision-Making, Held at Las Vegas, Nevada on
July 16-18, 1974. See also PB-256 740.
Abstract: The workshop originated as an effort on the part of
the Committee for Education and Research in the Social
Sciences of the Universities Council on Water Resources.
During the 1972 UCOWR annual meeting a task force was
established to identify research topics and problems related
to multiple objective planning and decision making. The
workshop itself was designed to provide a means of exchange
between federal agency planners and university researchers.
Agency planners — through position papers — provided basic
input to use in multiple objective planning.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Project planning, 'Meetings,
Decision making, Research projects, National government,
Universities, Economic development, River basin development,
Soil conservation, Fishes, Construction, Land reclamation,
Wildlife, Nevada
Identifiers: *Multiple purpose projects, NTISDIOWRT
PB-256 739/-1ST NTIS Prices: PC A04/MF A01
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Multiple Objectives Planning Water Resources. Volume 2.
Natural Resources Series Number 5
Idaho Research Foundation, Inc., Moscow.*0ffice of Water
Research and Technology, Washington, O.C.
AUTHOR: Michalson, Edgar l_. ; Engelbert, Ernest A.; Andrews,
Wade; Stratton, Charles R.
C7491H2 Fid: 13B, 5C, 48B, 680, 508, 70E GRAI7623
1975 127
Project: OWRT-X-142(4259)
Monitor: OWRT-X-142(4259)(2)
Proceedings of the UCOWR Conference on Multiple Objective
Planning and Decision-Making, Held at Boise, Idaho January
14-16, 1975. See also PB-256 739.
Abstract: The conference discussed was a result of efforts by
the Committee for Education Research in the Social Sciences of
the Universities Council on Water Resources. During the 1972
UCOWR annual meeting, a task group was established to identify
research topics and problems related to multiple objective
planning and decision making. At the 1973 UCOWR annual
meeting, a resolution was passed calling for a national
Workshop-Conference on the topic. The Conference was assigned
to allow the university people to present their ideas for
public discussion by federal agency planners: The present
volume contains tha Conference papers, together with summaries
of the discussion and panels.
Descriptors: *Water resources, 'Project planning, 'Meetings,
Reviews, Decision making, Land use, Policies, River basin
development, Pub!ic opinion, Social effect, Universities,
National government, Environmental impacts, Objectives,
Ecology, Cost analysis, Economic impact, Standards, Wildlife!
Idaho
Identifiers: 'Multiple purpose projects, NTISDIOWRT
PB-256 740/2ST NTIS Prices: PC A07/MF A01
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Ohio River Basin Comprehensive Survey. Volume XII. Appendix K.
Development Program Formulation
Army Engineer Div Ohio River Cincinnati (410257)
D3011H2 Fid: 138, 8H, 48B GRAI7719
Jul 68 317p
Monitor: 18
Original contains color plates: All DOC and NTIS reproductions
will be In black and white. See also Volume 13, AD-A041 280.
Abstracts This appendix presents background information,
planning concepts and procedures, and, as an end product, a
generalized plan for the development and management of the
water and related land resources of the Ohio River Basin. The
plan, comprised of a framework of broad-scaled water resource
and related program elements, outlines the water and related
land resource development requirements within the basin. It
also accounts for general land use and management practices
and water based or enhanced activities that may influence,
benefit by, or be dependent on water resource development.
Program elements of the framework plan were progressively
formulated through integration of the various developmental
opportunities and alternatives judged to best fulfill the
needs of the basin. The plan demonstrates the extent to which
the water and related land resources can meet present the
future demands for water and water-oriented functions and
services, the manner in which these demands can be met, the
timing and magnituda of developmant required, and the cost
thit would be involved. Elements outlined herein form the
basis for the Ohio River Basin development program summarized
and discussed in the Main Report.
Descriptors: *0hio River, *Basins(Geographic), *Resource
management, Land use, Planning, '^ater resources, Economic
analysis, Forecasting
Identifiers: NTISDOOXA
AO-A041 279/1ST NTIS Prices: PC A14/MF A01
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Optima) Solution to the Timing, Sequencing, and Sizing of
Multiple Reservoir Surface Water Supply Facilities When Demand
Depends on Price i
California Univ., Los Angeles.*dffice of Water Research and '
Technology, Washington, DC. (072 250)
AUTHOR: Moore, Nancy Young
F0343J4 Fid: 138, 48B GRAI7905 j
Jun 77 146p 1
Contract: DI-14-31-0001-4208
Project: OWRT-C-5184(4208)
Monitor: OWRT-C-5184(4208)(5) I
Abstract: A general multi-period planning model for the
optimal timing, sizing, and sequencing of reservoir additions
to surface water supply is presented. The objective of the i
model is the maximization of net economic efficiency benefits
subject to hydrologic system constraints. The model is I
designed to handle system increments which are unique and
interdependent. Since firm water, the product of the system,
is dependent on existing reservoir sizes, configurations, and J
hydrologies a rational operating scheme is incorporated into 1
the optimization. A price-sensitive demand curve which changes
according to a orescribed growth rate is used. Known reservoir
cost relattcnships which are a function of project capacity j
determine costs. A forward dynamic programming algorithm is 4
used for solution. The model is tested with an application to '
the Eel River Project in Nortnern California. The discount
rate, growth rate, and demand elasticity are parameterized and
tested over several values.
Descriptors: *Multiple purpose reservoirs, *Water supply, Size
determination, Mathematical .-nods i s, Dynamic programming, Cost
analysis, Demand(Economics), Sequencing, Output, Sewage
treatment, Water distribution, Theses, Efficiency,
Optimization, Prices, Water consumption, Rates(Costs),
Computer programs, California
Identifiers: *Water demand, Water levels. Eel rtiver project,
Water resources development, NTISDIOWRT
PB-288 1S5/5ST NTIS Prices: PC A07/MF A01
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~ Descriptors: *Colorado River Basin, *£nergy demand, *Energy
source development, A codes, C codes, Coal gasification plants
I, Coal industry, Computer calculations. Computer codes,
Economic development, Economic impact, Forecasting, Industry,
M codes, Mathematical models, Oil sands, Oil shale industry,
Regional analysis, Thermal power plants, Uranium reserves, USA
£ , Mater resources
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Optimization Model of Energy Related Economic Development in
the Upper Colorado River Basin under Conditions of Water and
Energy Resource Scarcity
Los Alamos Scientific Lab., N.Mex.*Energy Research and
Development Administration. (3820000)
AUTHOR: Morris. G. E.
D3852I2 Fid: 10A, 97G GRAI7726
Mar 77 570p
Contract: W-7405-ENG-36
Monitor: 18
Thesis.
Abstract: A mathematical model was designed for computer
analysis of the likely impact of energy development in the
upper Colorado River Basin in the period 1980 to 1985. The
upper Colorado River Basin, with its reserves of coal, oil
shale, uranium ore, petroleum, and natural gas is regarded as
an important source of increased energy resources. The Basin
now contains several major mature oil fields, seven major
hydroelectric facilities, and has produced the major portion
of uranium mined in the U.S. Energy projects proposed,
planned, or under construction in the Colorado, Utah, and
Wyoming portions of the Basin in 1977 include 39 new or
expanded coal mines, 10 new or expanded thermoelectric power
plants, eight oil shale developments, one coal gasification
plant, and three tar sand projects, with the possibility of
increased uranium mining and milling. The model is an
interregional input-output depiction of economic activity
coupled with export, water, and energy resource constraints
and runs In a linear optimized framework. (ERA citation
02:043458)
Identifiers: ERDA/290200, ERDA/290400, ERDA/294000,
ERDA/010000, EROA/020000, *£nergy models, NTISEROA
LA-6732-T NTIS Prices: PC A24/MF A01
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Plan for Development of the Land and Water Resources of the
Southeast River Basins. Appendix 10. Hydrology. Appendix 11.
Engineering and Cost
United States Study Commission Southeast River Basins Atlanta
Ga (410288)
Final rept.
D3111J4 Fid! 13B, 8H, 48G, S1H GRAI7720
1963 145p
Monitor: 18
Original contains color plates: All DOC and NTIS reproductions
will be in blacfc and white. Appendixes 10 and 11 to AD-A041
835. See also Appendixes 12 and 13, AD-A041 851.
Abstract: No abstract available.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Basins(Geograpnic), "Hydrology
. *Cost analysis, Floods, Climate, Ground water, North
Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Dams,
Reservoi rs
Identifiers: River Basin development, NTISDOOXA
AD-A041 850/9ST NTIS Prices: PC A07/MF A01
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Planning of Regional Water Resource Systems fop Urban Needs
North Carolina Water Resources Research Inst., Raleigh,+*North
Carolina Univ., Chapel Hill. Dept. of City and Regional
Planning.*0ffice of Water Research and Technology, Washington,
D.C.
Preliminary completion rept.
AUTHOR: Moreau, David H.
E0501G4 Fid: 138, 8H, 48B, 91H, 48G GRAI7806
30 Mar 72 44p
Project: OWRT-B-021-NC
Monitor: OWRT-B-021-NC(1)
Prepared by North Carolina Univ., Chapel Hill. Dept. of City
and Regional Planning.
Abstract: The objective of this study was to examine
modifications to existing planning and analytical models that
are necessary for the development of limited water and related
land resources to serve the needs of several emerging urban
areas within a region that spans several river basins in the
Piedmont of North Carolina. Three basic tasks were set forth
1n the proposal for the study: (1) Identify emerging needs for
water and related lands within the region; (2) examine a
limited set of alternative programs for development and
management of a regional system; and (3) examine adaptations
of planning and regulatory practices and institutional
arrangements to achieve development of a selected regional
system. This report covers work completed during the first
year of a 2-year project.
Descriptors: *Water supply, *Regional planning, *Nortn
Carolina, Management, Demand(Economics), Land use,
Mathematical models, River basin development, Project planning
, Yadkin River, Deep River, Haw River, Hydrology, Water
consumption, Neuse Siver, Stream flow
Identifiers: *Water demand, NTISDIOWRT
PB-275 058/6ST NTIS Prices: PC A03/MF A01
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Proceedings: The Connecticut River System: A Workshop on
Research Needs and Priorities Held at the University of
Massachusetts, Amherst on April 24 and 25, 1975
Massachusetts Univ., Amherst. Water Resources Research
Center.^Massachusetts Univ., Amherst. Inst. for Man and
Environment.*0ffice of Water Research and Technology,
Washington, D.C.
AUTHOR: Erte!, Madge 0.
D3151D4 Fid: 13B, 680, 48B, 91H GRAI7720
Jut 75 149o
Pept No: PUD-52; Completion-FY-75-5
Contract: QI-1t-31-0001-5021
Project: OWRT-A-078-MASS
Monitor: OWRT-A-073-M4SS(1)
Abstract: A workshop on research needs and priorities on the
Connecticut River system was conducted on April 24-25, 1975 at
the University of Massachusetts. The goals were to generate
mu'ti-disciplinary, inter-institutional interest in a future
co-ordinated research program, and define and evaluate the
priorities of needed research. Working group activities
included: (1) Modeling water Quality and quantity; (2)
flood-plain ecosystems; (3) aquatic ecosystems; (4) legal and
economic issues; and (5) man/environment relations.
Descriptors: *Water resources, ^Connecticut River, 'Meetings,
Research projects, Water quality, Flood plains, Ecology,
Recreation, Law(Jurisprudence), Mathematical models, Water
supply, Regional planning, Economic development, Massachusetts
Identifiers: Priorities, NTISDIOWRT
PB-268, 837/2ST NT IS Prices: PC A07/MF A01
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Project Evaluation in Water Resources: Budget Constraints
Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge. Ralph M. Parsons Lab.
for Water Resources and Hydrodynamics.*0ffice of Water
Research and Technology, Washington, D.C. (406 907)
Technical rept.
AUTHOR: Major, David C.; Cohon, Jared; Frydl, Edward
C5105I1 Fid: 13B, 48B GRAI7520
Sep 74 303
Rept No: 188; R74-52
Contract: DI-14-31-0001-3720
Project: OWRT-C-3370(3720)
Monitor: OWRT-C-3370(3720)(1)
Abstract: A multiob lective mathematical programming model was
developed for the Letvgh River, Pennsylvania, in locally and
globally optimal versions. Objectives for the Lehigh
representing each of the four accounts of the Water Resources
Council's proposed 1370 standards are discussed, and the
models are formulated for three of these: increasing national
income, regional and class income distribution, and
environmental quality. The design variables in the model are
the reservoirs and power plants considered in the Corps of
Engineers' 1961 report on the Delaware river basin, which
includes, the Lenign. Runs of the models were made for one, two
and three objectives, constrained by total and local budgets
of varying size. Results from the globally optimal model are
presented. These show the estimated effects on
multidimensional net benefit surfaces and on the design
variables of the budget Constraints, There is a general
discussion of the nature and use of budget constraints in
multiobjective planning, and suggestions are mada for
implementing the work at the district (Corps) or region
(Bureau of Reclamation) levels.
Descriptors: *8enefit cost analysis, *Water resources,
•Project" planning, *Water quality management, *Water
management, *River basin development, Mathematical models,
Computerized simulation, Linear programming, Water supply,
Reservoirs, Lehigh River, Budgeting, Cost analysis, Flood
control, Stream flow, Recreation, Hydroelectric power
generation, Economic analysis, Computer programs, Pennsylvania
Identifiers: *Multipurpose projects, NTISDICWRT
PB-243 567/5ST NTIS Prices: PC A14/MF A01
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River Basin Simulation as a Means of Determining Operating
Policy for a Water Control System
Florida Univ., Gainesville. Dept. of Food and Resource
Economics.
Doctoral thesis
AUTHOR: Kiker, Clyde Frederick
C1S13C1 Fid: 138, 488, 521, 601 GRAI7323
1973 123p
Contract: 01-14-31-0001-3287
Project: OWRR-B-007-FLA
Monitor: OWRR-G-007-FLA(7)
Abstract: The problem of dealing with the formulation of water
management policy for the area of south Florida within the
Central and Southern Florida Flood Control District was
undertaken. The objectives were to (a) propose an
organizational framework in which hydrologic, economic, and
institutional aspects of the region may be used in policy
development, (b) develop a simulation model which includes the
salient hydrologic, economic, and institutional features of
the Upper Kissimmee River Basin to serve as a guide, (c)
demonstrate the usefulness of the simulation model in policy
evaluations, and (d) determine the appropriateness of the
approach for use in policy problems encountered when dealing
with a large region. A first-generation simulation model of
the hydrologic phenomena and water-oriented activities in the
Upper Kissimmee River Basin was developed. fiflodels of the
surface water management system, the water use activities, and
the institutional constraints were interfaced with rainfall
and watershed runoff models.
Descriptors: (*Florida, Water resources), {*Management
planning, *Water resources), Corrputerized simulation,
Kissimmee River basin, River basin development, Regional
planning, Organization theory, Watersheds, Water supply,
Surface waters, Decision making, Theses
Identifiers: OWRR
PB-223 961/4 NTIS Prices: PC E05/MF A01
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Significant Interrelationships Between Electric Power
Generation and Natural and Developed Resources in the
Connecticut River Basin
Federal Power Commission, Washington, D.C. Office of Energy
Systems.
D2224K2 Fid: 10A, 138, 971, 91A, 48B GRAI7712
Dec 76 280p
Monitor: 18
Abstract: This report assesses the interrelationships between
hydroelectric power and natural resources in an entire river
basin. It presents a methodology for assessing these
interrelationships that has applicability in preparing
comprehensive environmental impact statements on entire river
basin systems.
Descriptors: *Hydroelectric power generation, *Connecticut
River Basin, River basin development, Land use, Social effect,
Economic impact, Manpower, Cost estimates, Hydrology,
Hydroelectric power plants, Topography, Environmental impacts,
Natural resources, Energy demand, Electric power demand, Water
resources, Forecasting
Identifiers: *£nergy source development, NTISFPC
PB-264 753/5ST NTIS Prices: PC A13/MF A01
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Systems Simulation of Economic Factors and Their Relation to
the Water System of Wyoming's Platte Riven Basin
Wyoming Univ., Laramie. Water Resources Research Inst.
Project completion rept.
AUTHOR: Phi 11ips, Clynn
C2392F4 Fid: 138, 488 GRAI7407
Nov 73 52p
Rept No: Ser-40
Project: OWRR-A-005-WYO
Monitor: OWRR-A-005-WYO(1)
Abstract: That portion of Wyoming within the North Platte
River Basin is Itkely to feel substantial pressure for
development in the next decade. The availability and cost of
water will be important considerations in future development
plans for this area. This study examines the potential for
designing an economic model of the Basin, using simulation
techniques of analysis, for use in evaluating development
impacts that are likely to occur in the near future. A
hydro logic mode! of the Basin is also being developed, using
simulation techniques, and it is intended that the two models
will eventually be integrated. (Modified author abstract).
Descriptors: *Wyoming, *River basin development, *Economic
mouels, Feasibility, Platte River basin, Water supply, Benefit
cost analysis
Identifiers! OWRR
PB-227 267/2 NTIS Prices: PC A04/MF A01
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- 1.7 Alphabetical Listing of Environmental Ca.se Studies Abstracts
1. The Cherry Creek-Casselman River Environmental Improvement Plan.
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2. Comprehensive Framework Study Missouri River Basin. Volume 2.
Appendices. Historical Perspective of the Missouri River Basin.
History of the Framework Study. Existing Water and Land Resources
Development.
3. Development of Water Resources in Appalachia. Main Report. Part III.
Volume B. Project Analyses, Chapters 8 through 10.
4. Evaluation of Estuarlne Site Development Lagoons.
5. Genesee River Basin Study. Study of Water and Related Land
Resources. Volume 1. Summary Report.
6. Hawaii Coastal Zone Management Program: Technical Supplement 2.
Management of Hawaii's Coastal Zone for Water Quality Objectives.
^ 7. Hydro Energy and Irrigation: Rakaia River Concept Study. Summary.
^ Report No. 7.
8. Identification of Water Resources Planning Problems in the Metropolitan
Area of Greater San Antonio and Its Associated Counties.
9. Kentucky/Licking River Basins. Comprehensive Coordinated Joint Plan.
(CCJP).
10. Modified and Updated Comprehensive Water and Sewer Plan for Green
River Area Development District.
11. Northern Great Plains Resource Program, Water Work Group Report.
12. Pacific Northwest River Basins Commission Annual Report Fiscal
Year 1977.
• 13. People and the Sound. Outdoor Recreation Planning Report.
14. Regional Ecological Studies.
9 15. Regional Response Through Port Development: An Economic Case Study
on the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Project.
a 16. A River Basin Management Post-Audit and Analysis.
17. Southeastern New England Study of Water and Related Land Resources.
Urban Waters Special Study.
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18. A Test of Proposed Procedures for Evaluation of Water and Related
Land Resources Projects. A Special Study of the Poteau River Watershed
Project Prepared by the Staffs of the Southwestern Division and Tulsa
District Corps of Engineers.
19. A Test of Procedures Proposed by a Task Force of the Water Resource
Council. Special Study of the Mountain Home Division, Southwest
Idaho Water Development Division, and Walla Walla District, Corps
of Engineers.
20. A Test of Proposed Procedures for Evaluation of Water and Related
Land Resources Projects. A Special Study of Stonewall Jackson Lake,
West Ford River and Tributaries, West Virginia.
21. A Test of Proposed Procedures for Evaluation of Water and Related
Land Resources Projects. A Special Study of the Detroit River, Trenton
Channel Project.
22. Testing of Evaluation Procedures on Possible Development of the Lower
Hiwassee River.
23. Water Resources of Northeast North Carolina.
24. Water Resources Appraisal for Hydroelectric Licensing Kern River
Basin, California.
25. Water Resources Appraisal for Hydroelectric Licensing, Clarion River
Basin, Pennsylvania.
26. Water Resources Appraisal for Hydroelectric Licensing. Kings River
Basin, California.
27.. Water Quality Management Element for the Kentucky River Area Development
District. Comprehensive Water and Sewer Plan.
28. Water Resources of the Upper Neuse River Basin, North Carolina.
29. Water Resources Appraisal for Hydroelectric Licensing, Winton
Development, Kawlshiwi River Minnesota.
30. Water Supply Dilemmas of Geothermal Development in the Imperial Valley
of California.
31. The Willamette Basin Comprehensive Study of Water and Related
Land Resources. Appendix J. Power.
1-74
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9
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• 1-75
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The Cherry CreeK-Casselman River Environmental Improvement
Plan
Maryland Dept. of Natural Resources, Annapolis. Program
Planning and Evaluation.*Appalachian Regional Commission,
Washington, D.C.
Final rept.
AUTHOR: Hecht, Louis G. Or
C4981L3 Fid: 138, 05C, 488, 680, 91H GRAI7518
dan 74 57p
Grant: ARC-72-47/RP-228
Monitor: ARC-72-47-Jan-74
Abstract: The survey xas conducted to davelop a plan for
environmental improvement of the Cherry Creek Sasin and the
Maryland portion of the Casselman River Basin. It. included
identification and evaluation of environmental needs
associated «ith coal mining, sewerage, solid waste and
industrial operations as well as resource development needs
associated with water supply, community development,
transportation, and general land use. Environmental
restoration was the main priority. Each prcolem is asses3ea in
terms of its contribution to the overall degradation of the
watershed and the current status of corrective action. The
plan provides a frameworu for consideration of funding
individual or group environmental improvement in the Cherry
CreeK-Casselman River watersneds.
Descriptors: *Water pollution, *Regional planning, *Cherry
Creek, *Casselman River, Environmental protection, Coal mining
, Solid waste disposal. Industries, Water supply, Water
resources, Land use, Transportation, Economic development,
Watersheds, Maryland
Identifiers: *Mine acid drainage, NTISAPPRC
PB-242 767/2ST NTIS Prices: PC A04/MF A01
1-76
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Comprehensive Framework Study Missouri River Basin. Volume 2.
Appendices. Historical Perspective of the Missouri River
Basin. History of the FrameworK Study. Existing Water and Land
Resources Development
Missouri Basin Inter-Agency Committee (410365)
0357103 Fid: 13B, 8H, 438, 48G GRAI7724
dun 69 178p
Monitor: 18
Original contains color plates: All DDC and NTIS reproductions
will be In black and white. See also Volume 3, AD-A043 937.
Abstract: Contents: Historical Perspective of the Missouri
River Basin; History of the Framework Study; and Existing
Water and Land Resources Development.
Descriptors: *Basins(Geographic), *Water resources, 'Resource
management, *Cost analysis, Land use, History, Economic
analysis. Hydrology, Water supplies, Water distribution, Water
conservation, Irrigation systems, Recreation, Dams, Reservoirs
, Capacity(Quantity)
Identifiers: *Missouri River Basin, *Reg1onal planning, Land
development, NTISDODXA
AD-A043 936/4ST NTIS Prices: PC A09/MF A01
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Development of Water Resources in \ppalachia. Main Report.
Part III. Volume 8. Project Analyses, Chapters 8 thru 10
Corps of Engineers Cincinnati Ohio (410111)
D3014A1 Fid: 13B, 8H, 48B, 48G - GRAI7719
Nov 69 422p
Monitor! 18
Original contains color plates: All DDC and NTIS reproductions
witl be in black and white. See also Part 3, Volume 9, AD-A041
395.
Abstract: This volume is one of six that comprise Part III,
"Project Analyses', to the Main Report for Development of
Water Resources in Appalachia. The volume contains three of
the 20 chapters that make up Part III. Chapters 8 and 9 were
prepared by the U.S. Army Engineer District, Mobile. Chapter
8, Dalton Reservoir Project, presents a plan for a multiple
purpose reservoir development on the Conasauga River, about
six miles southeast of Dalton, Georgia. Chapter 9, Coosa River
Navigation Project, presents a current reevaluation of the
economic justification for the authorized Coosa River
Navigation Project from Montgomery, Alabama, to Rome, Georgia.
Chapter 10, Stannard Reservoir Project, prepared by the U.S.
Army Engineer District, Buffalo, presents a plan for a
multiple purpose reservoir development on the Genesee River,
about four miles south of Wellsville, New York.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Reservo1rs, Dams, Cost
analysis, Cost benefits, Hydrology, Planning, Water supplies,
Flood control, Recreation, Navigation, Locks(Waterwavs),
Georgia, Alabama, New York, Pennsylvania, Rivers
Identifiers: *Appalachian Mountain Region(United States),
NTISOODXA
AO-A041 394/8ST NTIS Prices: PC A18/MF A01
1-78
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Evaluation of Estuarlne Site Development Lagoons
Rutgers - The State Univ., New BrunswicK, N.J. Water Resources
Research Inst.*0ffice of Water Research and Technology,
Washington, D.C.
Final rept.
AUTHOR: Walton, Grant f.; Nieswand, George H.; Toth, Stephen
J. ; Stillman, Calvin W.; Westman, James R.
D1335L2 Fid: 138, 5K, 680, 91H, 92C GRAI7706
1 Jul 76 187p
Contract: 01-14-31-0001-3614
Project: OWRT-B-040-NJ
Monitor: OWRT-B-040-NJ(5)
Abstract: A large number of estuarine site development lagoon
systems have been constructed along the New Jersey shore with
little, if any, Knowledge regarding the true nature of the
system being Created and its impact on the existing natural
estuarine system. A comprehensive study and evaluation of
these lagoon systems was undertaken including consideration of
the physical, chemical, biological and socioeconomic
conditions. In terms of the socioeconomic conditions, the
residents are generally quite satisfied with their lagoon
hornet in spite of their perception of major pollution and
over-development problems.
Descriptors: *£stuaries, *Land development, * Lagoons(landform-
9), *Water pollution, *New Jersey, Bays(Topographic features),
Water flow, Marshes, Site surveys, Planning, Economic impact,
Environmental impacts, Shores, Tidewater, Evaluation, Social
effect
Identifiers: *Wetlands, *Salt marshes, NTISDIOWRT
PB-261 367/7ST NTlS Prices: PC A09/MF A01
1-79
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Genesee River Basin Study. Study of Water and Related Land
Resources' Volume 1. Summary Report
Corps of Engineers Buffalo N Y Buffalo District (410090)
Final rept.
D3J03I4 Fid: 13B, 48B, 680, 91H GRAI7720
Jun 69 219p
Monitor: 18
See also Additions to Summary Report, AD-A041 701 and Volume
2..AD-A041 703.
Abstract: The Genesee River Basin covers 2,479 square miles,
mostly in western New York, with a small portion, 96 square
miles in northwestern Pennsylvania. The river rises in the
Allegheny highlands in Potter County, Pennsylvania, at an
elevation of about 2,500 feet, flows aporoximately 157 river
miles in a generally northward direction to its mouth at
Rochester Harbor on LaKe Ontario, at an elevation of about 247
feet. The topography of the southern portion, the Upper Basin,
upstream of Mount Morris Dam, is steep and rugged, while the
northern portion, the Lower Basin, is gently rolling. The two
major divisions of the basin also closely parallel the two
land resource areas which comprise the basin: the Allegheny
Plateau and the Ontario LaKe Plains Service Area, a region of
about 750 square miles north and west of the Basin lying
between Rochester and Lockport, New York. The principal needs
are for flood protection, water quality control, recreation,
fish and wildlife enhancement, irrigation, and agricultural
land and water management. The most practicable means to
provide for these and other needs of the basin is through a
comprehensive plan of structural and non-structural measures.
Descriptors: *Basins(Geographic), *Water resources, New York,
Pennsylvania, Flood control, Water quality, Recreation,
Wildlife, Irrigation systems, Land use, Topography, Planning,
Economic analysis, Lakes, Reports, Rivers
Identifiers: *Genesee
Ontario, NTISDODXA
Ri ver,
Economic development, Lake
AD-A041 702/2ST NTIS Prices: PC A10/MF A01
1-80
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Hawaii Coastal Zone Management Program: Technical Supplement
2. Management of Hawaii's Coastal Zone for Water Quality
Objectives
Hawaii Univ., Honolulu. Water Resources Research
Center.*National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
Rockville, Md. Office of Coastal Zone Management.*Hawaii State
Oept. of Planning and Economic Development, Honolulu.
AUTHOR: McGauhey, P. H.; Lau, L. Stephen
C7135H3 Fid: 13B, 488, 680, 86R GRAI7620
Aug 75 54p
Monitor: NOAA-76032405
Prepared for Hawaii State Dept. of Planning and Economic
Development, Honolulu. See also PB-255 336 and PB-255 338.
Abstract: The paper presents an overview of wastewater
management as related to the quality of Hawaii's coastal
waters. It examines concepts for establishing an inland
boundary of the coastal zone, and reflects some of the results
of studies made during the course of the 'Quality of Coastal
Waters' project supported principally by the University of
Hawaii Sea Grant Program during the years 1971 to 1975.
Descriptors: *Coastal zone management, *Water quality, *Hawaii
, Water pollution, Waste water, Sewage treatment, Ocean
environments, Sewage disposal, Boundaries, Runoff, Ground
water, Land use
Identifiers: NTISCOMNOA, NTISUH
P8-255 337/8ST NTIS Prices: PC A04/MF A01
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Hydro Energy and Irrigation: Rakaia River Concept Study.
Summary. Report No. 7
New Zealand Energy Research and Development Committee,
Auckland. (4670300) r-D&TT-roq
D1833A1 Fid: 138, 2C, 10B, 508, 971, 98 GRAI7709
Mar 76 21 p
Monitor: 18
Microfiche copies only. U.S. Sales Only.
Abstract: This report presents three schemes for storage and
control of the Rakaia River so that better use can be made of
the water for irrigation, power development, and recreation.
One scheme is recommended for further study. Stage development
of the scheme is presented for partial or full operation.
Environmental effects are considered and at this level of
study it appears that there are no insurmountable problems. In
fact this development should enhance recreational uses and
fishing. Preliminary cost studies indicate that feasibility
studies would be worthwhile to determine cost benefits in more
detail and environmental impact. (ERA citation 02:010126)
Descriptors: *Hydroelectric power plants, irrigation, *Water
reservoirs, New Zealand, Agriculture, Cost benefit analysis,
environmental effects. Feasibility studies, Power generation,
Rivars, Storage, Surface waters, Water resources
Identifiers: ERDA/290300, ERDA/296001, ERDA/130600,
Recreational facilities, Fishing, Cost estimates, Rakaia River
, NTISERDAE
NP-21133 NTIS Prices: MF A01
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Identification of Water Resources Planning Problems In the
Metropolitan Area of Greater San Antonio and its Associated
Count i es
Texas A and M Univ., College Station. Water Resources Inst.
Technical rept. 1 Jul 70-30 Apr 73
AUTHOR: Garner, Joseph K.; Shih, C. S.
C1424K1 Fid: 138, 601 GRAI7318
Oun 73 160p
Rept No: TR-49
Contract: 01-14-31-0001-3244, 01-14-31-0001-3544
Project: OWRR-A-017-TEX
Monitor: GWRR-A-017-TEX(2)
Also sponsored by Contract 01-14-31-0001-3844.
Abstract: The region incompasseri by the San Antonio River
Basin is described. Included is a brief summary of the
regional economy, demography, and geographical
characteristics. Additionally, quantitative information
including the inventory and planning control for both surface
and groundwater resource management of the San Antonio area is
presented. Empnasis has been placed uoon the identification
of tne probabilistic nature of regional water quality
irsnagement. The methods and techniques developed for handling
massive data and the reliability analysis for regional water
quality control are also presented.
Descriptors: (*Water resources, Texas), (*Water quality,
*Texas), Regional planning, Economic development, Demography,
Sites, Inventories, Urban areas, Rural areas, Management,
Reliability, San Antonio River Basin, Reviews
Identifiers: *San Antonio(Texas), OWRR
PB-222 182/3 NTIS Prices: PC A08/MF A01
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Kentucky/Licking River Basins. Comprehensive Coordinated Joint
Plan. (CCJP)
Ohio River Basin Commission, Cincinnati.
E2591C2 Fid: 13B, 680, 48B, 91H GRAI7824
Apr 77 139p
Rept No: 510
Moni tor: 18
summary of the
it now exists
Aostract: The plan summary contains a
Commission's adopted plan for development as , ,. ,,uw =^131.=.
including conclusions and recommendations. Priorities contains
the Commission's recommendations for the collection and
analysis of basic data and for investigation, planning and
construction of projects. The direction for the future
contains the State, Federal and adopted Commission policies,
goals and planning objectives and economic and demographic
projections used by Commission members. Baseline record
contains a list of all identified alternative projects and
programs, whatever their stage of development. (Colon
illustrations reproduced in black and white)
Dsscriptors: *Regional planning, *Water resources, *Kentucky
River Basin, flicking River Basin, Surveys, Construction,
Project planning, State government, National government, Local
government, Economic development, Demography, Conflicts, Water
pollution, Water supply, Maps, Ohio River, Kentucky River,
Licking River, Indiana, Ohio
PO
Lie!
ICer.tif iers:
NTISSLRS
Priorities, Water management(Admlnistrat1ve),
PB-284 293/8ST NTIS Prices.1 PC A07/MF A01
1-84
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Modified and Updated Comprehensive Water1 and Sewer Plan for
Green River Area Development District
Kentucky Office for Local Government, Frankfort.
C1584E3 Fid: 13B GRAI7320
20 Uun 73 353p
Rept No: CK-OLG-73-34
Project: HUO-CPA-KY-1000
Monitor: 18
Prepared in cooperation with Weston (Roy F.), Inc.. Wi Imette,
111.
Abstract: The regional plan includes a study of the
socio-economic factors, land use, and water resources. Water
service areas and sewer service areas have been delineated,
new treatment facilities or expansion of existing facilities
were proposed. Water quality management considerations have
been presented and the short-range and long-range priorities
have been delineated. Construction and operating costs have
been estimated presented for the proposed systems.
Descriptors: (*Regional planning, *Kentucky), (*Water supply,
Regional planning), (*Sewers, Regional planning), Land use,
Water resources, Water quality, Construction, Facilities,
Economic analysis
Identifiers: UPCD
PB-223 -058/9 NTIS Prices: PC E10/MF A01
1-85
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Northern Great Plains Resource Program, Water Work Group
Report
Northern Great Plains Resource Program, Denver,
Co1o.*Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C.*Oepartment
of the Interior, Washington, D.C.*Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington, D.C.
C5051H3 Fid: 138, 081, 48B, 48A GRAI7519
Dec 74 333p
Rept No: NGPRP/CD-74/200
Monitor: 18
Prepared in cooperation with Department of Agriculture,
Washington, D.C., Department of the Interior, Washington,
D.C., and Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.
See also PB-243 149 and PB-243 151.
Abstract'- The report analyzes surface water resources of the
Upper Missouri River Main Stream and Yellowstone Basin with a
brief analysis of the ground water resources in Montana and
Wyoming. Constraints to water resource development are
analyzed along witn historical resource development, water
availability above present uses, cost of delivery in Wyoming,
Montana, and North Dakota. A separate report is included on
in-stream needs. It projects amounts of water that should be
left in streams to maintain present riparian and aquatic
habitats- It assumes that there is a need for maintaining
fluctuating annual flows rather than traditional minimum level
flows. A separate report Is included on the wild and scenic
river recreational values of Upper Missouri and Yellowstone
Basin streams that may be affected by coal development.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Surface waters, *Ground water,
*Missouri River, *Yellowstone Basin, Water supply, Economic
development, Cost analysis, Stream flow, Coal mining,
Recreation, Water rights, Environmental impacts, Water flow,
North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Northern Plains Region(Un1ted
States)
Identifiers: *W11d rivers, *Scenic rivers, NTISEPAG, NTISAGOS,
NTISDIOS
PB-243 150/OST NTIS Prices: PC A15/MF A01
1-86
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Pacific Northwest Riven 3as;ns Commission Annual Report Fiscal
Year 1977
Pacific Northwest River Basins Commission, Vancouver,
Wash.*Water Resources Council, Washington, D.C.
E2S62L1 Fid: 13B, 483, 68D GRAI7825
Sep 77 24p
Monitor: 18
Sponsored in part by Water Resources Council, Washington, D.C.
_See also report dated 1976, PB-280 947._
Abstract: This report reflects the work accomplished by the
Pacific Northwest River Basins Commission for fiscal year
1977, also brief highlights of the decade of the Commission's
existence. (Color illustrations reproduced in black and white)
Descriptors: *Research projects, *Water resources, Water
supply, Organizations, Land use, Estuaries, Salt water, Water
quality, Economic development, Idaho, Montana, Oregon,
Washlngton(State), Wyoming
Identifiers: NTISUSWRC
PB-284 940/4ST NTIS Prices: PC A02/MF A01
1-87
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People and the Sound. Outdoor Recreation Planning Report
New England River Basins Commission, aoston, Mass.*8upeau of
Outdoor Recreation, Philadelphia, Pa. Northeast Regional
Office.
Final rept.
C5465D4 Fid: 138, 05K
Aug 75 127p
Rept No: LISS-05
Monitor: 18
Report on Long Island
Outdoor Recreation, Phi
Office.
Paper copy also avail
233-SET, PCS61.00.
, 91H, 488 GRAI7525
Sound Study. Prepared by
ladelphia, Pa. Northeast
able in set of 14 reports
Bureau of
Regional
as PB-245
Abstract: The planning report describes the outdoor recreation
element of the Long Island Sound Regional Study. It is part of
the final report of the Study, which outlines a strategy for
securing the balanced conservation and development of natural
resources of the Sound,and its shoreline in both New York and
Connecticut. The plan for Long Island Sound is an increment of
the New England River Basins Commission comprehensive,
coordinated joint plan for the water and related land
resources of its region, which includes New England and the
New York portions of Long Island Sound.
Descriptors: *Regiona1 planning, *Natural resources,
•Recreation, *Long Island Sound, Conservation, Recreational
facilities, Water resources, Land use. Shores, Beaches,
Swimming, Economic development, Marinas, Connecticut, New York
Identifiers: Open space plan, NTISNER3C, NTISDIBOR
P8-245 238/1ST NTIS Prices: PC A07/MF A01
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Regional Ecological Studies
Oak Ridge National Lab., Tenn.*Energy Research and Development
Administration. (4832000)
AUTHOR: McCarthy, M. M.; Reichle, D. E. ; Betson, R. P.
D10Q5E4 Fid: 13B, 5K, 91H, 97G GRAI7704
Jul 76 81p
Contract: W-7405-eng-26
Monitor: 18
Abstract: In August of 1974, the newly formed Regional
Environmental Assessment group in the Environmental Sciences
Division was asked to join the Regional Environmental Systems
Analysis (RESA) Program in a two-month regional case study of
the Harriman quadrangle in eastern Tennessee. The objectives
of this effort were to initiate an integrated analysis of tne
environmental and socioeconomic impacts of energy resource
development in the Tennessee Valley. This report is the result
of that two-month study, which' illustrates the
conceptualization of the problem approach and the
methodologies previously developed by the Regional
Environmental Assessment group
residual source terms, land-use
the case study area. This study
1974, . without completion of
assessment and socioeconomic
02:001571)
which ware applied to energy
and hydrologic resources of
was discontinued in September
the ultimate environmental
integration. (ERA citation
Descriptors: *Energy sources, ""Tennessee, *Environmental
effects, Energy demand, Environment, Hydrology, Land use,
Regional analysis, Socio-economic factors, Tennessee River,
Water resources
I dent i fiers:
development,
ERDA/530100,
NTISEROA
Economic impact, *Energy source
ORNL/RUS-24 NTIS Prices: PC A05/MF A01
1-89
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Regional Response Through Port Development: An Economic Case
Study on the McClel lan-K
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1944-1972. The
was documented.
A River Basin Management Post-Audit and Analysis
Little (Authur D.) Inc., Cambridge, Mass. (208 850)
Final rept.
AUTHOR: Wilkinson, John M.
C1644K1 Fid: 138, 50, 48B*. 521 GRAI7321
Aug 73 276p*
Contract: DI-14-31-0001-3719
Project: OWRR-C-3353(3719)
Monitor: OWRR-C-3353(3719)(1)
Abstract: The water management history of the Pick-Sloan
Missouri River Basin Program was analyzed with particular
emphasis on federal, State, local and non-governmental
institutional arrangements and an evaluation of performance of
these institutions over a 28-year period,
statutory bases for these institutions
Performance criteria included effectiveness in regional
policy, olanning, programming and operational management and
their responsiveness to social change. The regional economy
was comoared in 1940 and 1970, in the light of expectations of
the origins! plan and actual realization of intended results,
with emphasis on the role of water. The analysis prompted
recommendations for new institutional re-orientations for the
future that would better serve the needs of multi-State
regional ism.
Descriptors: (*River basin development, *Government policies),
(*Missouri River basin, River basin development), History,
Regional planning, Economic analysis, Water resources, Public
administration, Management analysis, Water law, National
government, State government
Identlfiers: OWRR
PB-222 941/7 NTIS Prices: PC A13/MF A01
1-91
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Southeastern New England Study of Water and Related Land
Resources. Urban Waters Special Study
New England River Basins Commission, Boston, Mass.*Econom1cs
Research Associates, McLean, Va.*Skidmore, Owings and Merrill,
Wash-ington, D.C.*Cortel1 (Jason M.) and Associates, Wellesley
Hi I Is,"Mass.
Final rept.
C7054I4 Fid: 138, 91A, 910, 488, SOB GRAI7619
Jan 75 181P
Rept No: NERBC-35
Monitor: 18
Prepared by Skidmore, Owings and Merrill, Washington, D.C.
Abstract: The report incorporates the findings of the Urban
Waters Study project for the Southeastern New England Study
Region (SENE). The study is aimed at the particular issues and
problems facing the cities and towns with waterfronts on
rivers or coastal waters. The report analyzes the physical,
economic, ecological, and legal and institutional issues
related to urban waterfronts in the region. Specific planning
and design guidelines are recommended, as well as
institutional and legal mechanisms for implementing waterfront
controls, and guiding improvements.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Land use, *Urban areas, Rivers
, Coasts, Harbors, Coastal zone management, Policies, Decision
making, Economic development. Industries, Recreation, Beaches,
Marine terminals, Law(Jurisprudence), Conservation, Ecology,
Massachusetts, Rhode Island
Identifiers: *Waterfronts, New England, NTISNERBC
PB-254 818/8ST -NTIS Prices: PC A09/MF A01
1-92
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A Test of Proposed Procedures for Evaluation of Water and
Related Land Resources Projects. A Special Study of the Poteau
River Watershed Project Prepared by the Staffs of the
Southwestern Division and Tulsa District Corps of Engineers
Army Engineer District, Tulsa, Okla.*Water Resources Council,
Washington, D.C.
C7205A2 Fid: 138 GRAI7621
Mar 70 132p
Moni tor: 18
Prepared in cooperation with Water Resources Council,
Washington, D.C.
Abstract: The report is the product of studies made by a Corps
of Engineers Test Team, which was instituted to test proposed
Water Resources Council evaluation procedures as outlined in
'Procedures for Evaluation of Water and Related Land Resource
Projects'. An existing Department of Agriculture plan of
improvement on the Poteau River Watershed in Arkansas and
Oklahoma was analyzed using these guidelines.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Land development, *Project
planning, *Poteau River Watershed, Benefit cost analysis,
Objectives, Economic impact, Social effect, Environmental
impacts, Regional planning, Arkansas, Oklahoma
Identifiers: NTISUSWRC, NTISDODA
PB-255 689/2ST NTIS Prices! PC A07/MF A01
1-93
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A Test of Procedures Proposed by a Task Force of the Water
Resource Council. Special Study of the Mountain Home Division,
Southwest Idaho Water Development Division, and Walla Walla
District, Corps of Engineers
Portland, Oreg.
Washington, D.C
North Pacific Div.*Water
*Army Engineers District,
Corps of Engineers,
Resources Council,
Wai la Wai la, Wash.
C7204L2 Fid: 138, 5C GRAI7621
Mar 70 112p
Moni tor: 18
Prepared in cooperation *ith Army Engineer District, Walla
Walla, Wash., ?wd Water Resources Council, Washington, D.C.
Abstract: The proposed procedures in the report calls for an
evaluation of water resource projects in terms of all relevant
national objectives, both in measuring project effects,
beneficial and adverse, and in formulating a plan that is
responsive to all objectives for the proposal of the Mountain
Home Project, Guffey Dam, in Southwest Idaho. Color
illustrations reproduced in black and white.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Land development, *Project
planning, Economic impact, Income, Recreation, Flood control,
Water quality, Fishes, Dams, Standards, Regional planning,
Environmental impacts, Idaho, Snake River
Identifiers: *Guffy Dam, NTISUSWRC, NTISDODA
PB-255 6S3/5ST NTIS Prices: PC A06/MF A01
1-94
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A Test of Proposed Procedures for Evaluation of Water and
"elated Land Resources Projects. A Soecial Study of Stonewall
Jackson Lake, West Fork River and Tributaries, West Virginia
Ohio River Div. Labs., Cincinnati.*Army Engineer District,
Pittsburgh, Pa.*Water Resources Council, Washington, D.C.
C7142J2 Fid: 138 GRAI7620
Mar 70 124p
Moni tor: 18
Prepared in cooperation with Army Engineer District,
Pittsburgh, Pa. Sponsored by Water Resources Council,
Washington, D.C«
Abstract: The purpose of the report is to determine the
advisability of modifying a previously authorized reservoir
located between Weston and Clarksburg, W. Va, It includes the
S'-Jidelines and measurement of the effects of the project for
Stonewall Jackson Lake.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Land use, *Stonewal1 Jackson
LaKe, Project planning, Standards, Objectives, Benefit cost
analysis, Recreation, Economic development, West Virginia
Identifiers: NTISUSWRC, NTISDODA
PB-255 477/2ST NTIS Prices: PC AOS/MF A01
1-95
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A Test of Proposed
Related Land Resources
Detroit River, Trenton
Procedures for
Projects. A
Channel Project
Evaluation of Water and
Special Study of the
Army Engineer Div. North Central, Chicago, I11.*Army Engineer
District, Detroit, Mich. (407 074)
C7203G4 Fid: 13B GRAI7621
Mar 70 52p
Monitor: 18
Prepared in cooperation with Army Engineer District, Detroit,
Mich.
Abstract: The objective of this report is to test the
workability, as applied to a commercial navigation project, of
the evaluation procedures prooosed for the Detroit River -
was authorized in the
benefits and costs of
current interest rate
evaluated. Second,
mixes of the national
force report, were
trenton Channel, Michigan, project which
1968 River and Harbor Act. First, the
the project as authorized, adjusted to a
Of 4-7/8 percent, were identified and
alternative plans, to meet varying
objectives as set forth in the task
evaluated. This report identifies benefits which would be
gained by interests other than navigation, but which were not
presented in the survey report as project benefits.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Land development, *Project
planning, *Michigan, Evaluation, Navigation, Benefit cost
analysis, Detroit River, Regional planning, Commercial
transportation, Comparison, Economic analysis, Objectives,
Feasibility
Identifiers: Alternatives, NTISUSWRC, NTISDODA
PB-255 536/5ST NT IS Prices: PC A04/MF A01
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Testing of Evaluation Procedures on Possible Development of
the Lower Hiwassee River
Tennessee Valley Authority, Knoxvllle.*Water Resources
Council, Washington, D.C.
C7204L1 Fid: 138 GRAI7621
Mar 70 154p
Monitor: 18
Prepared in cooperation with Water Resources Council.
Washington, D.c.
Abstract: The report deals with trial application of the
revised procedures by the Special Task Force Report of the
Water Resources Council. Methodology and approach are
emphasized rather than the specific numerical values given for
items such as benefits and costs. Portions of this document
are not fully legible.
Descriptors: *water resources, *Land use, *Hiwassee River,
Research projects, Evaluation, Water quality, Cost estimates,
Regional planning, Flood control, Recreation, Income, Wildlife
, Benefit cost analysis, Tables(Data), Tennessee
Identifiers: NTISUSWRC
PB-255 682/7ST NTIS Prices: PC A08/MF A01
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Water Resources of Northeast North Carolina
Geological Survey Raleigh Nc Water Resources Div (410804)
Final rept.
AUTHOR: Wilder, H. B.; Robison, T. M.; Lindskov, K. L.
E2424G2 Fid: 138, 8H, 48B, 48G, 91H GRA17823
May 78 125p
Rept No: USGS/WRO/WRI-78/070; USGS/WRI-77-81
Monitor: 18
Abstract: Associated with economic development of northeast
North Carolina are several water-related problems. The
solution to these problems depends in part on adequate
knowledge of the hydrology of this 8,930 square mile coastal
area. Although it is hydro!ogicaI 1y the least studied area of
North Carolina, enough is known to present this
reconnaiosance-1 eve 1 picture of its water resources. Average
annual precipitation on the area is aoout 50 inches. Of this
amount, about 34 inches returns to the atmosphere via
evapotranspiration, about 15 inches leaves the area as runoff,
and aoout one inch leaves through ground-water outflow. No
large streams originate within the area, but major streams
entering from the north and west bring in three times as much
streamflow as originates within the study area. The flat,
low-lying terrane does not offer opportunities for extensive
development of surface-water supplies through the use of
reservoirs. Much of the surface water is contaminated by
saltwater from the ocean. Ground water occurs in three major
aquifers, all of which contain both freshwater and saltwater.
(Author)
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Surveys, -"Coastal r
*Hydrology, North Carolina, Resource management, Rest
Surface waters, Salt water, Contamination, Aquifers,
water, Flooding, Ocean tides, Ecology, Rivers
Identifiers: Landscaping, Evapotranspiration, Chowan River,
Roanoke River, Tar River, Neuse River, Outer banks, *Econornic
development, *Northeast Region(North Carolina), Precipitat ion-
Meteorology), Stream Mow, Runoff, Ground water, Salt water
intrustlon, NTISDODXA
AD-A057 484/SST NTIS Prices: PC A06/MF 401
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Water Resources Appraisal for Hydroelectric Licensing Kern
River Basin, California
Federal Power Commission, Washington, D.C. Bureau of Power.
D2224J3 Fid: 8H, 10A, 48G, 971 GRAI7712
1977 94p
Woni tor: 13
Abstract: The report presents information on existing and
possible future development of water and related land
resources in the Kern River Basin. The basin is part of the
Central Valley in south-central California.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Kern River Basin, Natural
resources, Water supply, Geology, Climate, Hydrology, Water
quality, Land use, Economic development, Hydroelectric power
generation, California, Surveys, Reviewing, Licenses
Identifiers: NTISFPC
PB-264 750/1ST NTIS Prices: PC A05/MF A01
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HVdroe,ectric Licensing. darlon
Power Commission, Washington, D.C. Bureau of Power.
Appraisal rept.
Monitor: 18
CaS^oanCt^VerThLs^nPt P^yj v'S,^* an^
FPC-licensed Plney hydroeleCtr ic Si^.opSnt .
n.ater , i-
Recreation, Reservoirs F™ PUt'°n> ««'"• waters,
development Keservoirs- . Economic conditions, River basin
Identifiers: NTISFPC
PB-232 186/7 NTIS Prices: PC A04/MF A01
1-100
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Water Resources Appraisal for Hydroelectric Licensing. Kings
River Basin, California
Federal Power Commission, Washington, D.C. Bureau of Power.
C3503D4 Fid: 13B, 48B GRAI7422
Aug 74 82p
Monitor: 18
Aostract: The report on the Kings River Basin, California, has
been prepared by the staff of the Federal Power Commission as
a part of a program of Water Resources Appraisals for
Hydroelectric Licensing. It is intended primarily to provide
information which the Commission and its staff may use or
build upon, as appropriate, when considering matters related
to hydroelectric licensing, relicensing, or recommendation for
Federal takeover. Licensing considerations are currently
underway for several projects 'n the Kings River Basin. The
report has been preoared to correlate and, when possible, to
supplement available information and thus enable the staff and
the Commission to act expeditiously on matters pertaining to
the development of the hydroelectric power potential of the
Kings River Basin within the limitations of other desirable
water uses.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *Kings River Basin,
*Hydroelectric power generation, Licenses, Electric power
plants, Project planning, Economic development, Agriculture,
Recreation, Water supply, Appraisals, Industries, Flood
control, Irrigation, Pumped storage, Environmental impacts
Identifiers: Specific areas, NTISFPC
PB-235 224/3 NTIS Prices: PC A05/MF A01
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Water Quality Management Element for the Kentucky River Area
Development District. Comprehensive Water and Sewer Plan
Kentucky Office for Local Government, Frankfort.
C1645F1 Fid: 138, 680 GRAI7321
dun 73 91p
Rept No: CK-OLG-73-37
Project: HUD-CPA-KY-1000
Monitor: 18
Sudderth and Etheredge,
Prepared by Mayes,
Ky.
Inc., Lexington,
Abstract: There are three principal sources of pollution to
the waters of the Kentucky River: coal mining activities,
untreated domestic waste, and municipal plant effluent. The
report is addressed to the steps necessary to reduce or
eliminate pollution from these sources. In each of these
cases, the lack of definitive data as to the nature and origin
of the pollution is evident. In order to plan and execute an
effective pollution abatement program in the Kentucky River
Area Development District, the collection of the basic data i3
necessary. Alternative methods of municipal sewage treatment
are covered in this Report. These alternatives include the use
of tertiary lagoons, where physically possible, and advanced
tertiary treatment facilities. The need for additional sewage
collection and treatment facilities is set forth.
Descriptors: (*Water pollution,
pollution, Regional planning),
growth, Coal mines, Industrial wastes, Sewage
Lagoons(°onds), Economic analysis, Local government
*Regional planning)
Water resources
(*Stream
Populat ion
treatment,
Identifiers: Kentucky, Water quality data,
treatment, *Water pollution abatement, UPCD
PB-223 046/4 NTIS Prices: PC E04/MF A01
Tertiary sewage
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Water Resources of the Upper Neuse River Basin, North Carolina
Geological Survey, Raleigh, N.C.*Durham City, N.C.
Water-resources investigations rept. (Final)
AUTHOR: Putnam, Arthur L. ; Lindskov, Kenneth L.
C3931G2 Fid: 138, 8H, 483, 48G GRAI7502
May 73 78p
Rept No: USGS/WRI-12-73; USGS/WRD-74-037
Monitor: 18
Prepared in cooperation with Durham City, N.C.
Abstract'- To aid planners and developers, the report
summarizes data on duration of flow, low-flow frequency,
Storage requirements, and flood frequency. Data for the
43-year period 1925-68 show that the average annual streamflovn
for the upper Neuse River basin is about 320 million gallons
per day. Comparison of this flow with the total withdrawal of
both surface and ground water of 20 million gallons per day,
indicates the relatively minor utilization of the water
resources of the basin. If proper pollution controls are
observed and practiced so that the water in the various
streams may be used a number of times, the potential for
water-resources development and use is more than 10 times the
quantity of water presently used.
Descriptors: *Streamflow, *Neuse River, *Water supply, *North
Carolina, Water storage, Floods, Water levels, Surface waters,
Ground water, Correlation techniques, Water consumption, Water
pollution, Water resources. Regional planning, Economic
development
Identifiers: Low flow, Flood frequency, Water utilization,
*Water quality data, NTISOIUSGS
PB-237 304/1SL NTlS Prices: PC A05/MF A01
1-103
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Water Resources Appraisal for Hydroelectric Licensing, Winton
Development, Kawishiwi River Minnesota
Federal Power Commission, Washington, O.C. Bureau of Power.
Evaluation rept.
C4241H3 Fid: 138, 97G GRAI7507
1974 47p .
Rept No: FPC-PWR-469
Moni tor: 18
Abstract: The water resources appraisal report evaluates the
Winton hydroelectric power project located on the Kawishiwi
River in Minnesota. Its purpose is to assist the Commission in
deciding whether to relicense hydroelectric projects or
recommend Federal takeover. It in no way commits or prejudges
later Commission action.
Descriptors: *Minnesota, *Electric power plants, *Kaw)shiwi
River, Licenses, Evaluation, Land development, Economic
analysts. Hydroelectric power generation, Water resources
Identifiers.' *Winton project, Local studies, NTISFPC
PB-238 963/3ST NTIS Prices: PC A03/MF A01
1-104
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Water Supply Dilemmas of Geothermal Development in the
Imperial Valley of California
California Univ., Livenmore. Lawrence Livermore Lab.*£nergy
Research and Development Administration. (9500007)
AUTHOR: Layton, D. W.
D2835E4 Fid: 81, 97P, 971 GRAI7716
15 Sep 76 21p
Rept No: CONF-760990-1
Contract: W-7405-ENG-48
Monitor: 18
12. American water resources conference, Chicago, Illinois,
United States of America (USA), 19 Sep 1976.
Abstract: There are four known geothermal resource areas in
the Imperial Valley that have a combined potential of over
4,000 megawatts of electrical energy for 25 years. The water
resources available to support geothermal energy development
are imported Colorado River water, agricultural, waste waters,
Salton Sea water, and ground water. In addition, gaothermal
power plants can produce their own cooling water in the form
of steam condensate. Nevertheless, the relatively high water
requirements of geothermal facilities along with a series of
real and potential constraints may cause water supply dilemmas
involving both the acquisition and use of cooling water.
Important constraints are institutional policies, water supply
costs, technical problems, and impacts upon the Salton Sea.
These constraints and related dilemmas are examined in lignt
of relevant information on the valley's water resources,
geothermal resources and energy technologies, cooling water
requirements, and water supply options. (ERA citation
02'.0261 32)
Descriptors: *Geothermal power plants, *Imperial Valley,
California, Colorado River, Cooling systems, Economics,
Geothermal fields, Ground water, Salton Sea, Water
requirements, Water resources
Identifiers: ERDA/150200, ERDA/150800, NTISERDA
UCRL-78019 NTIS Prices: PC A02/MF A01
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The Willamette Basin Comprehensive Study of Water and Related
Land Resources. Appendix J. Power
Pacific Northwest River Basins Commission Vancouver Wash (
410072)
D1985D1 Fid: 13B, 8H, 48B, 48G GRAI7711
1969 I05p
Moni tor: 18
Original contains color plates: All DDC reproductions will be
in black and white. Appendix J to AO-A036 745. See also
Appendix K, AD-A036 763.
Abstract: The purpose of this Appendix is to show the present
power needs and existing generating capacity in the Willamette
Basin, to determine future power needs, to identify potential
projects in the basin which could be developed for power
generation, and to evaluate potential projects as to their
utility for power development. The power potentials within the
basin are presented from a single-purpose viewpoint to
determine the maxinum extent to which the water resource could
be developed for power generation. Power requirements, load
characteristics, interconnections, and power-source potentials
are projected to the years 1980, 200p, and 2020. These
projections are the basis for planning long-range,
comprehensive water resource development. The 1980 estimates
provide the basis for development of a plan to meet early
power needs of the basin. The longer-term appraisals are more
conjectural and tentative.
Descriptors: *Water resources, *£nvironmental management,
Oregon, Reservoirs, Rivers, Lakes, Basins(Geographic), Land
use, Planning, Requirements, Hydrology, Economic analysis.
Nuclear power plants
Identifiers: *Willamette River Basin, Electric power demand.
Water resources development, NTISDODXA
AD-A036 762/3ST NTIS Prices: PC A06/MF A01
1-106
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Section 2,Q
RELEVANT PHOTOCOPIED ARTICLES
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_ Section 2.0
• RELEVANT PHOTOCOPIED ARTICLES
• Included in this section are photocopies of articles which may
• be of particular relevance to EPA officials concerned with socio-economic
analysis of Chesapeake Bay water resources. No claim is made that these
I articles exhaust the supply of relevant literature. Instead, they are
intended to convey a flavor for the range and quality of analysis available
I in current literature.
• The articles are categorized as in the first section: economic
analysis; socio-political analysis; methodology; and environmental case
I studies. Each article appears once under the heading selected as most
appropriate.
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2.1 Alphabetical Listing of Economic Analysis Articles
1. An Approach to Evaluating Environmental, Social, and Economic Factors
in Water Resources Planning.
2. Approaches to Multiobjective Planning in Water Resource Projects.
3. Economic Forecasting for Virginia's Water Resource Programs.
4. Economic Valuation of Shoreline.
5. Economics. (L.D. James, Georgia Institute of Technology).
6. Economics. (L.D. James, Utah State University).
7. Economics. (J.C. Hite, Clemson University and L.D. James, Utah
Water Resources Laboratory).
8. Economics and the Environment.
9. The Efficiency and Equity of Cost Allocation Methods for Multipurpose
Water Projects.
10. Metarationality in Benefit-Cost Analyses.
11. Socio-Economlc Considerations in Water Resources Planning.
12. Water Resource Investment and Economic Development: Balanced Versus
Unbalanced Investment Strategies.
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WATER RESOURCES BULLETIN
VOL. 8, NO. 4 AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION AUGUST 1972
AN APPROACH TO EVALUATING ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL,
AND ECONOMIC FACTORS IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1
A. Bruce Bishop2
ABSTRACT. Decisions among water resources planning alternatives must consider, along with engi-
neering and economics, a variety of environmental and social effects which are viewed and weighted
differently by different interest groups. This paper briefly discusses present methods of project
evaluation and then describes an approach adapted from highway planning literature for evaluating
both monetary and non-monetary variables and presenting them to decision makers at all levels.
Social and environmental consequences are analyzed and presented using a graphical description
called a "factor profile," which measures in appropriate units all relevant non-monetary effects of
each alternative. Then, using the factor profile and engineering-economic analysis, a senes of paired
comparisons are made to obtain a preference ranking among alternatives. Since preference decisions
are extremely complex, a step by step procedure to simplify the decision-making process is
described. A case example considering four proposed flood control alternatives with the relevant
environmental and social impacts is given to illustrate the use of the factor profile and the decision
making procedure.
(KEY TERMS, planning; decision making, project evaluation; environmental impacts; social aspects;
economic analysis)
INTRODUCTION
Water resources development has a wide range of impacts on the various users, on the
surrounding communities, and on the region and nation as a whole. Moreover, these conse-
quences intersect a broad range of economic, social, environmental, and community values
which are viewed and weighted differently by different interest groups. Hence, choices and
tradeoffs must be made to achieve the highest satisfaction of public wants. Unfortunately,
there is no effective market mechanism to allocate resources for public wants as there is for
the private sector of the economy. Consequently, other means must be found to induce
various segments of the public to reveal their preferences for public goods. At the national
level this is accomplished by Congress through the political process. However, at the level of
comprehensive planning for river basins or specific projects, this must be achieved by planners
interacting with the public through the planning process. In this setting, water resources
planning becomes a process of refining and choosing among alternative approaches for satisfy-
ing public wants, evaluating them on the basis of their social, environmental, and community
feasibility as well as for engineering and economics.
'Paper No. 72067 of the Water Resources Bulletin Discussions are open until January 1, 1973.
'Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering, Utah Water Research Laboratory, Utah State University,
Logan, Utah 84321.
724
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APPROACH TO EVALUATING ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL. AND ECONOMIC FACTORS 725
WATER RESOURCES, NEEDS, AND PLANNING ALTERNATIVES
The problem of the water resources planner is illustrated by the diagram of Figure 1. We
have at our disposal a set of limited resources with which to satisfy our needs. As the diagram
shows, the aggregate of all our needs will usually exceed the capability of our resources.
Generally, within the limits of our resources, there will be sets of alternatives which are feasi-
ble from the standpoint of technological and economic considerations, but may not satisfy
social, environmental, and political values, and vice versa. To use the language of set theory,
the job of the water resources planner is to find that subset of alternatives which is the inter-
section (the darkest area of Figure 1) of all the feasible (economically, socially, etc.) sets of
alternatives. These are alternatives which could be implemented.
1-ENVIRONMENTAL
2-ECONOMICAL
3-POLITICAL
4-SOCIAL
5-ENGINEERING/TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY
6-RESOURCES
7-NEEDS
Fig. 1. Limits of feasibility in water resources planning.
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726 A. Bruce Bishop
The usual approach in water resources planning is to develop a set of technologically feasi-
ble alternatives and then to complete the planning effort by determining economic feasibility.
The limits of social, environmental, and political feasibility, while not entirely ignored, are
largely left to others to be determined after the plan is complete. More often than not these
missing ingredients are the ultimate cause of planning failures. For example, some of the
broad issues and questions which must be considered in refining the limits for our sets of
feasible alternatives are:
Technological/environmental. The technological impact of a completed public work, con-
structed and in place, represents a definite change in the environment which is difficult to
reverse. It is often literally set down in concrete. Since it represents a permanent change, it is
important to consider whether or not this kind of physical change should be made at all, and
if it is made, should it be made now and in this particular way.
Economic. The costs and benefits of public works are generally distributed among many
different interest groups. Construction of a dam or flood control works brings about changes
in land use, dislocation of people and property, and alterations in living patterns, all of which
serve to redistribute economic resources. In evaluating the impact of public works, one can no
longer just assess the benefits "to whomsoever they accrue," but in addition, it must be deter-
mined who receives the benefits and who incurs the costs.
Social. Public works tend to have the nature of self-fulfilling social prophecies. If projects
are built they will become part of the fabric of an area, and the products from construction of
a new dam will cause changes in the social structure, environment, population, and living
patterns of the region, which are responsible, at least in part, for creating the needs and
demands that the project purposes intend to satisfy. Since projects generate a certain amount
of social self-fulfillment, it is important to ask: What would realistically be expected to
happen if the project were not built? In asking this question we must recognize that "doing
nothing" is a viable alternative, and that it is a dynamic and not a status quo condition.
Political. There is rarely a single decision maker in public works planning, and decisions are
made difficult because of the number of interactions among potential decision makers. The
planners' success depends on his recognition of which interest groups can and should influence
the plans, how and by whom the final decision is made, how to translate technical data into
public policy issues and test them politically, and how to make public participation in plan-
ning a meaningful activity.
With the broadening public interest in water resources, planners must recognize that envi-
ronmental, social, and political feasibility are as essential a part of the planning process as
engineering and economics. Hence, the planner should refine the limits of social and political
feasibility along with engineering and economics throughout the entire planning process.
Referring to Figure 1, it appears that much of the earlier technical stages of planning may be
of only marginal concern in relation to the end product that can be implemented. Indeed,
large amounts of time and resources may be spent in developing plans that are outside the
limits of feasibility in one area or another.
In some cases we may find in fact that there are feasibility sets which do not intersect at
all. It is important to point out, however, that the areas of social and political feasibility do
not necessarily have fixed predetermined limits. They depend to a significant extent upon
clear understanding of the possibilities and the range of choices. The key to realistic appraisal
of environmental, social, and political feasibility is to maintain constant communication with
a broad spectrum of those who will finally determine these limits. If the planner begins to
bracket these ranges of feasibility early in the study, then more of the planning efforts can be
confined to the subset of plans which is more likely to be acceptable. Thus, adequate
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APPROACH TO EVALUATING ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL. AND ECONOMIC FACTORS 727
interchange of information can serve both as a means to establish the feasibility limits and as a
guide to avoid marginal effort.
EVALUATING WATER RESOURCES PLANS
In the evaluation of water resources plans, the practice has been to aggregate the informa-
tion relevant to the decision which could be quantified in economic terms into a benefit-cost
ratio. However, such consequences as environmental, social aesthetic, and community impacts
have not been included in the benefit-cost ratio since neither suitable techniques nor adequate
data have been available for appraising and quantifying them. Furthermore, in many cases it
may be inappropriate to quantify them in money terms. It follows that a discussion and
evaluation of alternatives based solely on the benefit-cost ratio will often submerge or exclude
information that is pertinent to the decision. It tends to obscure rather than pinpoint the
differences among alternatives and leaves no way to identify and contrast these differences in
decision making.
Recently a special task force of the Water Resources Council has sought to expand the
basis for comparing alternative plans by outlining four "accounts" for evaluation of water and
related land resource projects. These include (1) national income, (2) regional development,
(3) environmental enhancement, and (4) social well-being. Test teams from several universities
and Federal water planning agencies attempted to apply this system of evaluation to a number
of current projects. While in most cases national income and regional development benefits
and costs were given adequate treatment, the environmental and social well-being effects were
generally given only cursory and elementary attention. In reviewing the experience of the test
teams there are two particular areas of need in approaching project evaluation [Water
Resources Council, 1970]:
(1) Procedures for communicating project impacts to the public to elicit their input
in formulating project objectives and evaluating project product outputs.
(2) Procedures for making tradeoffs among various objectives of the four accounts.
These findings underscore the need for methods to describe, analyze, and present to
decision makers the principal social, environmental, and community variables in water re-
sources plans. Furthermore, our approaches to plan evaluation should allow each community
and interest group to examine the proposed plans and determine the consequences and trade-
offs as seen from their particular viewpoint so that they can be considered in the decision
making process. To accomplish these aims, a basis must be established for evaluating and com-
municating both monetary and non-monetary consequences. To do this two important rules,
which have often been ignored in evaluation schemes, must be kept in mind [Grant and
Ireson, 1964]:
(1) The decisions must be based on the differences among alternatives.
(2) _TKat money consequences must be separated from the consequences that are not
reducible to money terms; then these irreducibles must be weighed against the
money consequences as part of the decision making process.
To apply these rules in an engineering, economic, environmental, and social analysis of the
effects of water resources development, four important aspects of the problem should be
considered. These are:
(a) Identification of factors relevant to the decision. Planning experience has shown that it
is often difficult for groups to identify or express their objectives at the inception of a study.
However, a strong program of citizen participation and the use of survey research techniques
can provide needed input for defining an initial set of planning objectives. Then as alternative
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728 A. Bruce BiOiop
plans are developed, sets of objectives are seen in terms of their physical and functional form.
This can then serve as a basis for evaluating and reformulating objectives, and can also suggest
factors (dimensions) to measure and quantify the impact of alternative plans on the planning
objectives.
(b) Quantification. Comparisons of the differences among alternatives depend on defining
the factors which measure the relative merits of the plans. The factors relevant to the decision
should be separated into those direct consequences that can be stated in economic money
terms at both the regional and national level and those environmental and social effects which
fall upon the communities which are not an appropriate part of the economic costs and
benefits. Where possible, and there exists a rationale for doing so, these non-monetary factors
should be measured and evaluated in some other appropriate unit. Then, monetary and other
factors can be weighted against each other to determine the tradeoffs among alternatives.
(c) Viewpoint. Different alternatives affect the various levels of government, communities,
and groups in different ways. Much of today's controversy in water planning and management
results from the failure of one group to appreciate another's values and concerns. The factors
which are most important will, of course, vary with each individual project. Various
approaches to public participation should be used at the conceptual stage of plan formulation
and again during plan evaluation to allow each group to express its principal concerns. By
identifying the factors of greatest concern to each community group, the i_osts and benefits
and the points of agreement and disagreement can be clarified. Consideration of varying view-
points should eliminate confusion and many of the pointless arguments which now afflict
planning studies.
(d) Time period. The time period over which the consequences of various plans are spread
should also be considered. Otherwise short-run effects might be given more weight in the
decision as compared to the long-run effects, or vice versa.
In developing dimensions for the description of alternatives, it should be emphasized that
both the viewpoint and the time period or horizon will markedly affect the analysis in select-
ing and quantifying the relevant factors in decision making. These need to be specified before
variables are quantified, and indeed a complete evaluation may require that a number of
analyses be performed using different viewpoints and planning horizons.
A Method for Presenting and Evaluating
Water Planning Alternatives
Following from the two decision rules stated earlier, a two-part procedure is Necessary to
objectively present and evaluate alternatives: (1) an economy study which includes all items
that can be reduced to money terms, and (2) an analysis of all items which cannot be stated in
terms of money but which must be weighed in the decision. Recent efforts have been made to
develop new methods and techniques which apply these principles in evaluating planning
alternatives.
A procedure for decision making among freeway route location alternatives has been pro-
posed by Bishop [1969] and Oglesby, Bishop, and Willeke [1970]. This approach, called a
"factor profile," is a method for analyzing, presenting, and comparing the indirect, environ-
mental, social and community effects with the economic effects of alternative highway plans.
It appears that the use of such tools can be a valuable step toward a more rational discussion
of and decisions among alternatives based on economic, social, and environmental factors in
water resources planning as well as transportation planning. The following section of this
paper applies the concept of the "factor profile," to water resources plan evaluation, describes
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APPROACH TO EVALUATING ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND ECONOMIC FACTORS 729
the procedure for using it, and presents an example problem. The discussion ana example
closely parallel that for the highway location alternatives in order to emphasize the similarities
between evaluation of transportation and water resources projects.
Factor Profiles: A Decision Making Tjol
The "factor profile" is a graphical representation based on the factors which describe by
some appropriate unit of measure the effects of each proposed alternative. Figure 2 is a highly
simplified and consolidated version of such a profile for four flood control alternatives,
numbered 1, 2, 3, and 4. On this figure, each profile scale is on a percentage base, ranging
from a negative to a positive 100 percent. One hundred either negative or positive is the maxi-
mum absolute value of the measure that is adopted for each factor. Reduction to the percent-
age base simplifies scaling and plotting the profiles. The maximum positive or negative value
of the measure, the units, and the time span are indicated on the right-hand side of the profil?
for reference. For each alternative, the positive or negative value for any factor is calculated as
a percent of the maximum absolute value over all alternatives and is plotted on the appropri-
ate abscissa. A broken line connecting the plotted points for each alternative gives its factor
profile. For the profiles, factors and measures should be selected which will adequately
describe all important elements of community and environmental impact. Care should be used
in defining factor measures to assure that they are not measuring the same consequences.
Otherwise in effect there would be "double counting" and disproportionate weight would be
given to those factors. This may result in incorrect preference decisions.
FWTM
PE IttIT EFFECT
HAItt* POSITIVE ff) KUTM
MUK m MY W.1EMWW
WlUC MIS TIC SM, IK
lOCAl IIICIIIATIONAl
OP"0*TUNITIII
GRfEMUTVOU
1CWC1HG •*
WI«IM •* HIDING
THAK1
LAW USE — OtVI lOPAI
UMO LA«0 IN
HQOOtAIN
CBMtWWTV IMPACT
IMUlVUWTSOtffUCtO
IY PltlJJf CT
COMTHUCTION
CONVUNITV f ACUITIES
CHURCHES C«HW*TY
CfRTf tS UMOOll MOSPITAU
•EGIOMIICOWWY
MMKIAl AflO IMtOTOIAl
MOKfTVOISFLACCg
KMCCTMTAItAH
[AlKSftO VALUf Of
MOHITVTAIfm
(<) 10,000
USER
DAYS
5-15
«•) 400 ACRES S-20
-"<« LSsG »•»
(-) S FACILITIES 0-5
H U PARCELS/ ..5
FACILITIES
l-l'il MILLION 0-K
Fig. 2. Factor profiles for flood control alternatives.
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730 A. Bruce Bishop
In order to reduce the complexity of the diagram and, m turn, of the decision making
process, the full set of factors should be reduced whenever it is possible to do bo Two guide-
lines are suggested for accomplishing this: (1) eliminating all those factors that are not relevant
or important to the particular decision, and (2) eliminating all factors where the values are
substantially the same for all alternatives. These tests must be acceptable to all parties involved
in the study.
It is expected that the profiles will be prepared for each alternative from the viewpoint of
each community interest group and will incorporate the factors that are important to that
particular group's viewpoint. A composite profile would also be prepared showing the total
community effect for each factor. Separate profiles for each alternative could be made on
transparent overlays to facilitate the method of comparison proposed in the following
paragraphs. In passing it should be noted that research is also under way to provide such dis-
plays on a cathode-ray tube activated by a computer. This would permit almost instant recall
of any comparisons that seemed appropriate.
Method for Plan Evaluation
Because of the complexity that "real life" factor profiles would often have, a systematic
procedure for evaluating and comparing the relative merits of the several alternatives is essen-
tial. The method proposed here is that a series of paired comparisons be made using engineer-
ing economic analysis and factor profiles as the decision making tools.
First, alternatives 1 and 2 are compared: then the better of these is compared with 3. and
so on. In comparing two alternatives the incremental cost or benefit from the economic
analysis is weighed against the differences in community and environmental impact between
the alternatives as shown by the factor profiles. The decision maker representing each group
would appraise the economic and community factors and determine his preference between
the two alternatives. After all the paired comparisons among the various alternatives have
been completed, there would result preference rankings for each viewpoint in the community.
These would be used for comparisons among competing viewpoints in reaching a final
decision.
From the point of view of the science of decision theorv. the paired comparison approach
falls down when more than two parties are involved in the decision. Hosvever, this theoretical
objection does not mean the paired comparison approach will not work in the real world. This
difficulty is widely discussed in the literature [Luce and Raiffa. 1957].
A highly simplified example to illustrate the paired comparison approach is given by the
question. "Is it preferable to save S50.000 per year in flood damages accruing to local resi-
dents by adopting a bypass flood routing or to dislocate a commercial enterprise situated in
the bypass which employs ten people and paying S20.000 per year in property taxes? It is
estimated that a substitute enterprise will develop in five years." It is admitted that tins
example is far simpler than those of the real world where the factor profile would include
several elements. Even so, such comparisons make clear the actual points at issue and may
greatly reduce the number of irrational arguments that accompany most controversial
decisions.
The flow chart of Figure 3 depicts the procedure to be followed in making the paired com-
parisons just described. Such a procedure should greatly help community groups and decision
makers in selecting a preferred alternative.
Step 1: Perform Engineering Economic Analysis. Rank the alternatives in order of prefer-
ence as determined by the economic analysis. This may be done on the basis of maximum net
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APPROACH TO EVALUATING ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND ECONOMIC FACTORS 73 1
benefits over cost or total and incremental benefit cost ratios or rates of return. Tabulate the
net benefits over costs for each alternative.
Step 2. Prepare Factor Profiles. Factor profiles are prepared from the viewpoint of each
interest group showing the plan or project's impact on each relevant factor for that group.
A factor profile is also prepared which shows the total or aggregate effect of each alternative
over all communities and groups.
Step 3: Economic and Factor Profile Analysis. Compare alternatives on the basis of the
economic analysis ajid the factor profiles. Eliminate any alternative which is dominated by
another from the standpoint of both the economic analysis and the factor profile. One
alternative strictly dominates another if all percentage values of the factor profile of that
ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVES
'<,», Z )
OBTAIN OATA ON FACTORS TO
8E USED IN THE ANALYSIS
DIRECT
INDIRECT
STEP (I!
"ERFORM ENGINEERING-
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
STEP (2)
'REPARATION OF
FACTOR PROFILES
CALCULATE'NCREMENTAL
NET BENEFITS (COSTS)
RANK ALTERNATIVES
(X.Y.Z)
STEP (3)
ECONOMIC AND FACTOR PROFILE ANALYSIS
IS ALTERNATIVE DOMINATED BY ANOTHER
BOTH IN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND
fACTOR PROFILE '
STEP (4)
YES
NO
PAIRED COMPARISONS OF ALTERNATIVES
(X,Y)
DETERMINE INCREMENTAL DIFFERENCES
IN FACTOR PROFILES BETWEEN PAIR
-4-
PREFERENCE DECISION
IS X>Y OR Y>X '
(X>Y)
CHECK AGAINST ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
RANKING IS PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE
ALSO PREFERRED IN ECONOMIC STUOf
TRADEOFF WITH INCREMENTAL COSTS
(BENEFITS) ARE GAINS (LOSSES)
IN COMMUNITY FACTORS WORTH
ADDITIONAL (INCREMENTAL) COSTS
(BENEFITS)'
Fig. 3. Flow chart for analysis of alternatives.
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732 A. Bruce Bishop
alternative are greater than that of the other. This implies that there are no crossovers in the
lines of the factor profiles for the two.
Step 4: Paired Comparisons of Alternatives. Paired comparisons are made for each view-
point on the basis of the incremental differences in community effects from the factor pro-
files, and comparing these with the incremental differences in costs from the economic
analysis. Any two alternatives can be paired, but a reasonable beginning would be to pair one
of the alternatives having a good factor profile with the preferred alternative from the
economic analysis.
(a) Determine the differences between the alternatives for the community and environ-
mental factors, and compare the increments of values gained with the increments of values
lost.
(b) State a preference between the two alternatives based on the importance to the decision
makers of the tradeoffs among the factors.
(c) Check the preference statement against the ranking from the economic analysis. This
resolves the question, "Is the alternative preferred in (b) also superior from the standpoint of
the economic analysis?" If the answer is "yes" then the prefened alternatives is paired with
the next alternative selected for analysis. If "no," then the analysis proceeds to (d).
(d) Test the differences in community and environmental factors against the excess of
costs over benefits. The decision maker is asking the question. "Are the gains in these factors
worth the additional incremental costs of this alternative?" If the answer is "yes" the alterna-
tive of higher cost is preferred because of its higher community and environmental benefits.
Otherwise, the alternative preferred from the economic analysis is selected and paired against
the next alternative for analysis.
Step 5: Continue Paired Comparison Procedure. The procedure (a) through (d) is continued
until all feasible alternatives have been included in comparisons. The paired comparisons
among the feasible alternatives produce a preferred alternative, and also a preference ranking
among all alternatives for each viewpoint if this is desired.
The only constraint imposed on the decision makers in the paired comparisons is that
preferences among alternatives must be transitive, i.e., if A is preferred to B, and B is preferred
to C, then A is preferred to C. This insures that preferences and decisions are consistent with
previous ones, and that the final ranking of alternatives reflects the decision makers' true
preferences.
In sum, the purpose of the factor profiles and the procedure for analysis is to help the
decision maker apply the two basic principles of decision making: (1) to separate economic
effects measurable in dollar values from other consequences, and (2) to compare the differ-
ences in alternatives in making decisions. The factor profiles and the method of analysis offer
both a visual aid and a systematic procedure for implementing these principles. The construc-
tion of the factor profiles does not imply that the area under the curves can be integrated, or
the percentage values of factors can be added in order to make a decision.
An Example Application
Consider four proposed flood control alternatives with the relevant community and envi-
ronmental impact factors and corresponding factor profiles depicted in Figure 2. An analysis
of the economic costs and benefits of the alternatives is given in Table 1. The economic
analysis indicates that alternative 2 is preferred, since it shows a benefit-cost ratio greater than
1 on the total investment and on all increments of investment. Alternative 1 ranks next, then
4 and 3 have equal desirability from an economic standpoint.
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APPROACH TO EVALUATING ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL. AND ECONOMIC FACTORS 733
TABLE 1. Economic Analysis of Flood Control Alternatives
Alternative
S (in thousands)
Item
Annual Cost
Annual Average Savings in
Flood Damages
Net Benefits
Benefit-Cost Ratio
1
650
1,000
350
1.54
2
750
1,200
450
1.60
3
850
1,150
300
1.35
4
700
1,000
300
1.43
Incremental Analysis
4 over I
2 over 1
3 over 1
2 over 4
3 over 4
3 over 2
Incremer
Cost
50
100
200
50
150
100
tal
Benefit
0
200
150
200
150
(50)
B/C
Ratio
0
+2.0
+0.75
+4.0
+ 1.0
-0.5
Increm. Net
Bnft. (cost)
(50)
100
(50)
150
0
1150)
It must be recognized that the rankings given by this analysis can be changed substantially
by changing thejnterest rate, with lower rates tending to favor higher capital investments.
This example is based on an interest rate that reflects the minimum attractive rate of return
for a particular planning agency.
In examining the factor profiles, we find that the profile of alternate 4 dominates both 1
and 3. Since 4 is equally attractive as 3 in the economic analysis, alternative 3 can be dropped
on the basis of the dominance tests. For the first paired comparison, alternative 2. preferred
from the economic analysis, is paired with 4, a dominant alternative from the factor profiles.
In comparing the differences between these two alternatives, we find that alternative 2 pro-
vides 200 acres of developable land and saves 290 housing units and S.58 million in assessed
valuation. On the other hand, alternative 4 increases the average recreational opportunities in
the community by 500 user days and saves 25 parcels of industrial property and 2 community
facilities. Let it then be assumed that the decision makers agree that alternative 4 is the more
attractive of the two, based on the factor analysis tradeoffs.
However, in the economic analysis alternative 2 is preferred to 4 by $150,000 per year, so
that additional comparison to the net benefits foregone must also be made. Here it should be
noted that alternative 2 costs the agency that will build the project 550,000 more per year; on
the other hand, flood damage costs are $200,000 per year less. It could be that the various
groups would therefore weigh the economic consequences quite differently. Assuming that.
even with the cost differences, alternative 4 is selected over 2, a similar comparison would be
made between 4 and 1.
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734 A. Bruce Bishop ,
SUMMARY
To summarize, the advantages of the factor analysis method of evaluation are as follows:
(1) It separates the direct money consequences from the social and environmental conse-
quences so that they do not become confused in the analysis;
(2) In complex decision making where it is important to have more rather than less infor-
mation on which to base the decisions, it provides a visual means by which to display the
different factors relevant to making choices;
(3) It provides a means for comparing the incremental differences in environmental and
social factors among alternatives, and contrasting them with the differences in economic costs
or benefits;
(4) The analysis also provides for separation of viewpoints as well as an analysis of the
overall impact. It shows the incidence of community effects upon community groups, brings
out the points of agreement or disagreement among those groups, and serves as a mechanism
in resolving those conflicts;
(5) Finally, factor identification and factor profiles can be a useful tool during the planning
process (a) in defining the factors which are important to the community arid community
groups, (b) in establishing goals and objectives, (c) as a basis for discussion during the develop-
ment of alternatives, and (d) as a means of evaluating and making decisions among alterna-
tives.
REFERENCES
Bishop, A. B. 1969. Socio-economic and community factors in planning urban freeways. EEP Report No.
33, Stanford Program on Engineering Economic Planning, Stanford University, Stanford, California.
Grant, E. L. and W. G. Ireson. 1964. Principles of engineering economy. Ronald Press, N.Y. 4th ed.
pp. 21-23, 436, 445-448, 456.
Oglesby, C. H., A. B. Bishop, and G. E. Willeke. 1970. A method for decisions among freeway location
alternatives based on user and community consequences Highway Research Board Record No. 305.
Washington, D.C. pp. 1-15.
Luce, R. D. and H. Raiffa. 1957. Games and decisions. John Wiley and Sons.
Water Resources Council, Special Task Force. 1970. A summary analysis of nineteen tests of proposed
evaluation procedures on selected water and land resource projects. Washington, D.C.
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WATER RESOURCES BULLETIN
VOL 11. NO 5 AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCATION OCTOBER 1975
APPROACHES TO MULTIOBJECTIVE PLANNING
IN WATER RESOURCE PROJECTS1
Bernard W. Tavlnr. III. K Rowoe Davis and Ronald M. \orth
INTRODKT10N'
Recently there has been increasing criticism of economic evaluations performed by
•uter resource agencies Critics argue that benefit-cost analyses performed by the Corps
if Engineers. Tennessee Valley Authority, etc.. do not reflect a true valuation of
•nwonmental and social objectives. Some critics further charge that water resource
^encies do not consider multiple objectives at all and are self-seeking in their economic
.••dilations. This latter charge, however, may be somewhat erroneous. It is the authors'
"inion that water resource agencies have attempted to include environmental and social
hectives in the evaluation process but' have, in general, not performed the task very
-sssfully. The problem that exists is the method of evaluation employed in attempting
include multiple objectives. Benefit-cost analysis as currently implemented is too
'"ited to accomodate the complexities presented by a multiple objective approach to
-'sr resource development.
Realise of limitations of benefit-cost analysis, researchers in the management and
-;jl sciences have sought alternative approaches to water resource evaluation. It is the
•'oos,; of this article to review several alternatives and discuss advantages and limitations
;jl-h. These alternatives can be categorized into two areas' mathematical programming
• '^liie determination methods. In the mathematical programming area, two techniques
~v reviewed, goal programming and the surrogate worth trade off method. In the
•''- ^termination area, Environmental Evaluation Systems (EES) and personal value
"r"unation will be reviewed. While these methodologies are not all inclusive, they do
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Approaches to Multiobjective Planning
evolution of benefit-cost analysis will be presented to provide a better unde-
the need for an alternative evaluation approach. Jn - ,
The origins of benefit-cost analysis and its use in governmental processes ti-
the River and Harbor Act of 1902 (Hammond, 1966). This government ['"""
required the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to evaluate tangible benefits and < -' "
would result from navigation projects. The evaluation process resulted m tri *
computation of benefit-cost ratios for water resource projects.
The Flood Control Act of 1936 formalized the concepts of water
development and explicitly stated that ".. . benefits be in excess of costs. ." (Or ' '
resource project (Eckstein, 1958). This criterion can be operatiorialized vi""
alternative benefit-cost algorithms: the net present value, internal rate of return
benefit-cost ratio. The latter technique, the benefit-cost ratio, has become th
popular and most frequently employed.
Through practice and legislation, benefit-cost analysis was extended to water res.
projects other than flood control. Popularity of the technique increased to the pou,i •-
it was applied also in other public areas such as highway development and s-in; .
(Margolis, 1959). The increased demand for public goods that private investment
not supply, in conjuction with the general expansion of the concepts of we.-
economics, supported evolution of the analysis. Thus, benefit-cost analysis evolved ,H
period of years so that it became ingrained in the water resources developr.-
decision-making process.
Within the benefit-cost framework, the economic efficiency of a water res»u:
project became the sole criterion for evaluating and selecting projects. The nature
analyzed benefits and costs were such that an economic value could be assigned with \\\-
difficulty and with a certain degree of justification. However, the increased PL!-..
awareness of environmental and social factors resulted in the development of a "mulii:,-
objective planning framework" In 1970 the Water Resources Council suggested that -,>.
principles and standards specified in previous government documentation incli...
environmental and social enhancement and regional economic development (I ••
Government, 1970). The objectives of water resource development were'
1) To enhance national economic development by increasing the value of the natu.r
output of goods and services and improving national economic efficiency;
2)
3)
To enhance the quality of the environment by the management, conservator
preservation, creation, restoration or improvement of the quality of certaL-
natural and cultural resources and ecological systems in the area under study a".
elsewhere in the nation;
To enhance social well-being by the equitable distribution of real income
employment, and population with special concern for the incidence of iht
consequences of a plan on affected persons or groups, by providing educational
cultural, and recreational opportunities;
4) To enhance regional development through increases in the values of a region •
income, increases in employment, and improvements in its economic ba^.1
environemtn, social well-being, and other specified components of the rregion:1
development objectives.
In 1973, when new principles and standards, were finally approved, water resoma-
development was limited to the first two objectives: national economic development arni
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1001 Taylor. Davis and North
enhancement of the environment (U.S. Government. 1973)
The economic evaluation of benefits and costs resulting from the multiple objective
.iporoach has proven quite difficult. It is not so simple a task to place a dollar value on
•ecreation and water quality as is, to a degree, the task of placing a value on navigation
and flood control benefits. In addition, there are considerations which environmentalists
(supported by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1%9) claim cannot be valued at
ill
Thus, controversies which have resulted between government water resource agencies
Hid environmentalists are not totally a result of an agency's lack of consideration of
:nvironmental objectives. The problem, as has been noted, is one of a new multiple
objective approach being forced into a limited, outdated and generally incompatible
.-.•onorrac framework.
ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO WATER RESOURCE EVALUATION
The following overview of some of the more viable alternatives for evaluating water
•^source projects is divided into two areas: mathematical programming techniques and
•^hodologies which attempt to quantify environmental value outside an economic
•amework. Goal programming and the surrogate worth trade off method are included in
~£ mathematical programming area. The environmental valuation approaches include
"nvironmental Evaluation Systems (EES) and personal value determination.
"^Programming
There is a scarcity of solution approaches which can accommodate multiple objectives.
^ exists primarily because most mathematical solution methodologies employ a single
"icctwe function. Goal programming (Chames and Cooper, 1961: Mao, 1969; Lee,
' -), an extension of linear and integer programming, however, is capable of considering
-iiple goals in the objective function. A goal programming framework, thus, allows the
"^deration of both economic and environmental objectives.
'ne goal programming problem is formulated as follows:
k
riimae Z = 2 (Wj y+ H- Vj yp
i= 1
yi=gi
M -
an objective function,
a deviational variable measuring the amount of over-attainment of the goal.
a deviational variable measuring the amount of under-attainment of the goal,
'he goal attainment desired for objective function i,
lhe relative weight or penalty cost for over-attainment, and
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Approaches to Multiobjective Planning
Vj = the relative weight or penalty cost for under-attainment
The objective function is interpreted as the minimization of trp i
desired goals. By weighting the over-attainment and under-attainni '^'>~''
penalty cost, it is possible to economically quantify the magmtuch • '' ' '
Policy decisions are necessary to define the desired goal levels, g.t a,^ (L """' -
weights Wj and v^. Original objective functions are transformed into con
by allowing for under- and over-attainment and setting the equation eju-i
goal level. The resulting problem is in the form of an objective function w t
that can be solved via the traditional simplex algorithm. However, the goal
model does not confine the solution to the achievement of the goals. The '•"
satisfactory rather than optimum; i.e., the solution best satisfies the poks u'
goal attainment.
Neely (1973) applied this technique to a problem where the best groUM
resources projects were to be chosen from a pool of projects. The best projects v
thai had the highest goal levels. The basis of the Neely model was defined as
f,(x)=
NPVjX,
J J
where,
NPV-
= the net piesent value of project j, and
= the water resource project (an integer value).
Transformed into a goal constraint, the objective function becomes:
2 NPVX: -
= P
where,
P= total dollar value to be attained by the selected projects.
This formulation represents only one of several objective functions employed. Otiu"
objective functions were developed in a similar manner to form the complete goa.
programming structure. In the above formulation the X: values indicate which project
out of a pool of projects would be selected. Thus, the objective function becomes a
constraint. The problem becomes one of selecting those projects which best satisfy the
-constraint, P (net present value), and all remaining goals.'
The establishment of policy level (goal attainment) and/or penalty weights can be i
significant disadvantage of the goal programming approach. The problem of properly
valuing environmental objectives thus also exists in this approach Environmental
objectives still must be quantified; in this case, it is in terms of policy levels. If the Coips
of Engineers or TVA established the levels each would be subject to criticism. However.
one possible solution is the participation of other groups or individuals in the policy
decisions.
Obviously, the goal programming framework provides the advantage of providing a
means for considering multiple objectives. But, a criterion for any approach will be its
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T'aylor, Davis and North
operationally, i.e.. ease of implementation. One reason for the popularity ot benefit-cost
analysis is its flexibility and lack of complexity. Any alternative to benefit-cost analysis
will have to be understandable to the parties involved in the decision-making process.
While goal programming is relatively complex, the degree of complexity is not
prohibitive The technique does offer an approach which warrants further consideiation
and review.
flic Surrogate Worth Trade Off Method
The surrogate worth trade off method (Haimes and Hall, 1974,Haimes er al., 1975)
is a mathematical programming methodology similar to goal programming. As in the goal
programming model, this method provides a means for considering a vector of
.loncommensurable objective futicttions'
|f,(x). t2(x), . . frfx))
In numerous decision situations the individual decision maker will evaluate noncom-
•iensurable objectives and determine a best solution. In many decisions the individual
elects between economic and non-economic entities without any common denominator
\^cpt subjective preference. The decision maker must compare one or more objectives
-"- determine which is of the greatest value. This type of decision-making process is
~-x:d on the concepts of Pareto optimality and non-inferior solutions (Ferguson, 1972)
Hie condition of Pareto optimality exists when an increase in the value of one good in
"•-' commodity space can be achieved only at the expense of a decrease in some other
M(J A point in the commodity space is said to be Pareto efficient when any movement
•' vvould augment the value of one good reduces the value of another. This type of
• Non-making process is transferred to a mathematical programming framework in the
''''gate worth trade off method.
Ijlven a set of objective functions, the decision maker assesses the relative value of the
'^ °tf of marginal increases and decreases between any two objectives. The
"Cation procedure requires the determination of when an additional quantity of one
•--live is worth more or less than that which may be lost from another objective. To
'mine this trade off between objectives, trade off functions are developed,
c °'f function between objective functions i and j.
Ver' when comparing two objective functions, they may be in noncommen-
•,.;, us' For example, fj(x) may be measured in dollars and f:(x) in acres of land. As
* ^e tra(k °ff function would be measured in $/acres. In order to transfer these
•; .^ ,'*Urable units into commensurate units, surrogate worth functions are
-.. ,... surfogate worth function is a function of the trade offs which estimate
' • 'i« ^ °ne °bJective over another (i.e., is the marginal change in one objective
1 more or less than one unit change in the other objective function).
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Approaches to Multiobjective Planning
Haimes (1974) defines a scale from -10 to +10, -10 indicating that ma
f;(x) are worth much less than one marginal unit of f;(x), +10 indicatins rh» "' ~~
i Jo LiH; Onrjj
"0" signifying an even trade. rH "•';.
Once trade off functions are developed, the set of feasible solutions is
considering only non-inferior solutions. If improvement of one objective fun '•'*'•
possible even at the degradation of another, it is an inferior solution. Howeve "" '
an improvement in the value of one objective function for a corresponding degr .'"*''
the other, it is a non-inferior solution. An optimum solution is defined": t' c
non-inferior feasible solution that belongs to the "indifference band," a ? '
non-inferior solutions where the improvement of one objective is equivalent *
degradation of another. The optimum is found at the point where all trade ''• *
selected to make all surrogate functions equal to "0". ' ;';
The mathematical framework for this approach is not offered here as it is too lo-
an d complex. This presentation only reviev/s the theoretical basis for the nre'T
However, Reid and Vemuri (1971) present an example in their work which sh<-
facilitate a more in-depth understanding of the fundamentals of the technique.
The major advantage of the surrogate worth trade off approach is the same as ih •
goal programming - the ability to consider multiple objectives. However, in usin^ •<•
surrogate worth trade off method, the decision maker is able to interact with the decisi •
model by assigning subjective preferences to the trade off functions. This enables ;*• '
decision maker to compare the desirability between two objectives in the decisi, •
process.
However, just as the assignment of goal levels is a limitation in goal programming, $t. t>
the assignment of surrogates in this method. In fact, the establishhment of surrogates ;^
based almost entirely on subjective preferences. This could prove quite difficult for
public sector agency such as the TVA or Corps of Engineers. The determination 01
surrogates for trade offs seems to be a more difficult procedure than specifying poltc,
levels for an objective as required in goal programming. The complexity of this technique
could also prohibit its eventual use.
Other Mathematical Programming Approaches
Goal programming and the surrogate worth trade off method are examples ut
mathematical programming alternatives to benefit-cost analysis. Other multiple objective
programming possibilities include iterative programming (Dyer, 1972: Dyer, 1973); the
step method (STEM) (Benayoun. et al.. 1970; Benayoun, et al, 1971), and decision
programming (Hatfield, 1973; Silverman and Hatfield, 1973) Ritzman (1974) offers an
excellent (brief) overview of all these techniques.
Environmental Evaluation System
Another direction that research has taken is to consider environmental objectives
separate from economic objectives. This is achieved by quantifying the value of
environmental parameters. Two techniques demonstrate alternative methods for assigning
such environmental values.
The Environmental Evaluation System (EES) is a methodology for conducting
environmental impact analysis of a water resource project (Dee, et al., 1974). Similar to
some of the math programming models, this approach transforms all parameters into
commensurate units. However, unlike other techniques, this approach considers only
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1005
Taylor, Davis and North
environmental impact. Developers of this technique feel that since environmental impacts
Cannot be considered adequately within an economic framework, they should be
considered separately.
The EES is based on a hierarchical arrangement of quality indicators; an arrangement
that classifies the major areas of environmental concern into four major categories:
ecology, environmental pollution, esthetics, and human interest. These four categories are
further subdivided into 18 components and finally 78 parameters. Each of the 78
environmental parameters represents an aspect of environmental significance worthy of
separate consideration. Each parameter is a physical entity which can be quantified based
on historical data (Dee,ef al, 1974, categorically lists these 78 parameters).
The parameter estimates are related to environmental quality via a value function. The
value function relates various levels of parameter estimates to the appropriate level of
environmental quality (where environmental quality is measured on a scale from 0, bad
quality, to 1, good quality). Figure 1 offers an example of this relationship. (Note that
dissolved oxygen is one of 14 parameters in the water pollution component of the
environmental pollution category.)
environmental
Quality
1.0 r
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
8
10 12
MG/L
Figure 1 . Dissolved Oxygen
n order to determine the relative importance of parameters, each parameter is
' f '?nctl a weighted point value. These values indicate the degree to which the water
./'Urce project may- disturb or enhance the "dynamic stability of man's relationship to
- environment". These relative weights are based on the quantification of the subjective
' '?nients of the research team performing the analysis.
the above conditions are met (i.e., value functions are defined and parameters
hese
as to relative importance), results are combined to compute commensurate
units, referred to as environmental impact units, are computed as follows:
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Approaches to Multiobjective Pbnn <.
where,
EIU = environmental impact units,
(Vj)w = value in environmental quality of parameter! with a
(ViV/o = value in environmental quality of parameter i without
Pj = relative weight of parameter i, and
n = total number of parameters.
This equation measures the difference in future environmental
without the project. The commensurate impact units indicate either a n ~*' ' *
environmental impact for the proposed water resource project. These u V
the magnitude of the positive or negative effects of the project.
Since this approach considers only environmental objectives, it would h,-
employ the approach in conjunction with one which considers economic > b'
may be a more viable solution than considering all objectives within orm p V
model. The EES offers a means for quantifying Environmental Impact Sir-
requirement of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969), hONU.,
decision-making process some determination must be made to weigh cnvu
impact against economic impact. This could pose a serious problem.
Within the EES model itself, the assignment of weights (via subjective jua^r
signify the relative importance of environmental parameters, may also be a si-..
limitation. One research team's subjective judgements may differ substantial,
another's judgments or from an agency's. It would be necessary to establish a u;,
measure of parameter weights in order to avoid conflicting situations.
Personal Value Evaluation
This approach, as the title indicates, employs personal value information jr.,
environmental objectives used in the water resource projects (Groves and Kahalas, 14"
It involves sampling the local population, where a project is to be developed, in orde:
determine individual preferences. Based on these value judgments, priorities ..
established for water resource development objectives.
The personal value evaluation is accomplished via an interviewing process wuli
prepared questionnaire. During the interviewing session the subject is asked to phw .
scalar value on various environmental parameters.
This evaluation process is limited. Like the EES, this method would have to be used u.
conjunction with an economic approach. However, unlike the EES, tliis technique
demonstrates the extreme in subjective judgment estimation. The subjective preference^
are those of the geographically affected public, which has little scientific or economic
expertise on which to base or make judgments. Hopefully, we have not reached a point
where the public is considered more qualified to make technical judgments than experts
But, the public is qualified to make their desires known in water resource development.
Therefore, on a limited basis, this technique provides useful information.
One additional limitation of this approach concerns the cost and effort required in
conducting interviews. Many water resource projects are of such magnitude that they can
affect states and regions as well as localities. As such, the size of the affected population
could make any type of sampling procedure very expensive
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CONCLUDING DISCUSSION
The four project evaluation approaches which have been described offer an
indication of methods being developed to cope with multiple objectives. Basically,
techniques are emerging along two lines. The first, mathematical programming, considers
all objectives within a mathematical decision-making model and generates the best or
most satisfactory solution. The second, value determination, quantifies only environ-
mental objectives used as inputs to a decision-making process.
The authors are of the opinion that no one methodology offers a complete solution to
the evaluation problem. It is probable that a complete solution will not emerge unless a
combination of the approaches is employed However, of the four described, goal
programming surfaces as the most workable It considers all objectives within a single
model framework, with a minimal degree of complexity. Also, the emphasis on subjective
judgment (a factor existing to a varying degree in all the techniques) is minimal in goal
programming.
It should be recognized that this review is only a limited examination of each of the
techniques. However, in each case an effort was made to cite sufficient references. A
more in-depth look at particular techniques can be found in the respective references.
LITERATURE CITED
Benayoun, R., J. Tergny and D. Kevneman, 1970. Mathematical Programming with Multi-Objective
Functions: A Solution by Progressive Orientation Procedure. Metra, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 270-299.
Benayoun, R., J. Montgolfier, J. Tergny and O. Laritchev, 1971. Linear Programming with Multiple
Objective Functions: Step Methods. Mathematical Programming, Vol. 1, 1971, pp. 366-375.
Charnes, A. and W.W, Cooper, 1961. Management Models and Industrial Applications of Linear
Programming. Vol. I.
Dee, N,, J. Baker, N. Drobny, K. Duke, I. Whitman and D. Fahringer. An Environmental Evaluation
System for Water Resources Planning. Water Resources Research, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 523-555.
"Ver, J.S., 1972. Interactive Goal Programming Management Science, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 62-70.
kkstein, 0., 1958. Water Resources Development. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachu-
setts.
«?uson, C.E., 1972. Microeconomic Theory. Richard D. Irwin, Inc., Homewood, Illinois.
'fives, D. and H. Kahalas. An Empirical Analysis of Personal Value Information. Contemporary
Perspectives in the Decision Sciences (Proc. of 1975 Southeastern AIDS, T.F. Anthony and A.B.
-( CanoB, eds.), pp. 112-113.
'aimes. Y.Y. and W.A. Hall, 1974. Multiobjectives in Water Resources Systems Analysis: The
H Sunogate Worth Trade Off Method. Water Resources Research, pp. 615-623.
•Jimes, Y.Y., W.A. Hall and H.T. Freedman, 1975. Multiobjective Optimization in Water Resource
Systems. Elsevier Scientific Publ. Co., The Netherlands.
"""""•"I, R.J., 1966. Convention and Limitation in Benefit-Cost Analysis. Natural Resources
J.VoL 6, pp. 195-222.
G-B., 1973. The Theory and Application of Linear Decision Programming. 8th Intntl.
I,, y,mposium on Mathematical Programming, Stanford Univ.
i.i40 'j' *•• '972. Goal Programming for Decision Analysis. Aurbach Publ., Inc., Philadelphia.
*tj ' T-' 1969. Quantitative Analysis of Financial Decisions. Macmillan Co., New York.
v°__' J-A., 1959. The Economic Evaluation of Federal Water Resource Development. American
'• Review, Vol. 49, pp. 96-111.
S
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Silverman, J. and G.B. Hatfleld, 1973. A Theoretical Approach to Multi.ni..
20th Intntl. Mtg., Tel Aviv, Israel. UHWJbJeciive (.,_ u
U.S. Government, Water Resources Council, 1970. Report ot the Water Reso
Task Force - Summary of 19 Tests of Proposed Evaluation Procedures"*0" C l'Ulxa>
Land Resource Projects. Gov't. Printing Office, Washington. °n Sfle^e> •
U.S. Government, Water Resources Council, 1973. Federal Register- Wat
Resources, Establishment of Principles and Standards for Planning Vol ^^ Hr'
Gov't. Printing Office, Washington. ' °' N° 174
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NO 5
WATER RESOURCES BULLETIN
AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION
OCTOBER 1973
ECONOMIC FORECASTING FOR VIRGINIA'S
WATER RESOURCE PROGRAMS'
Charles P. Becker, Allender M. Griffin, Jr..
and Carol S. Lo\vn2
ABSTRACT. Wjter resource and water quality management planning depend, to a large degree,
on forecasts of industrial activity and population projections. A flexible economic data base is
especially important where planning follows varying formats of geographical and industrial
detail. Records of employment and payroll are Collected in the administration of Unemploy-
ment Insurance (U.I.) programs and are available trorn State Employment Agencies. These
-tatistics have been collected over a long period of record (thirty-five years) Many years of
record are available on punched-cards or magnetic tape jnd mav be arra\c,d and manipulated by
Computer Tins basic approach lias been lolloped in Virginia. Historical L.I payroll and
employment records for the period I °-5b through 1970 wore procured on magnetic tape. This
data was arrayed by major hydrologic area and by regional planning district Projections ot
manufacturing activity were then generated in fitting several exponential equations to annual
payroll data in two-digit Standard industrial Classifications Ihese exponentials were then
extrapolated to provide a range of industrial piojcUions Other parameters ol manufai. turmg
activity were then correlated to the payroll data to generate projections ot indexes such as
employment, value-added, and gross manufacturing output. L'.l. payroll data is now being
Correlated to parameters in non-manutacturum categories Projections for industries such as
trade and services will link extrapolated pavroll data with benchmark correlations ot payroll
jnd sales receipts.
iKEY TLRMS- water resource planning, unemplo\ merit insurance (t 1 ) -.tatistiLS, value-added,
exponential torecastinir. population projections)
Economic data has played an impoitant lolc in watei resource planning and water
-'uhty management planning' Parameieis such as population, employment and
-due-added4 in manut'acuiung have hoen correlated to water-use and waste generated
" Paper No 73066 of the Water K(.:iourct. J Bulletin Discussions are open until Vpnl 1. 1974.
teonwmsts, Virgmra State \Vater Control Board, Richmond. Virginia, 232JO
Between 1966 and 1972, the Virginia Division ot Water Resources ot the Department of
onservation and tconomic Development was responsible tor comprehensive water resource planning
r the State of Virginia. On July 1, 1972, the Division ot Water Resources was merged with the
"gmia State Water Control Board. Since 1946. the Board has been responsible for water quality
•nagement in Virginia. The combined agency is now operating as the Virginia State Water Control
jrd.
'Value-added of an industry consists ot labor compensation, proprietors' income, profits,
'•::est, depreciation, and indirect business taxes " (U S. Department of Labor, B L.S . I970i.
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Becker, Griffin, Jr. and Lown
Water resource planning engineers and sanitary engineers are able to make Pf <
estimates of future water-use and waste levels by making correlations with ^
population and industrial projections. Water demand, expressed in millions of ga[j '••-
day (MGD) has been related to value-added in selected manufacturing cate-'
Water-use coefficients are also available for other heavy water-using industries su-?*
mining. Domestic water demand can be predicted by applying per capita water-use f-", ""
to population forecasts. Parameters of water quality such as biological oxygen den-
(BOD) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) have been correlated to economic index
major water-using industries. Relationships between per capita population and dom*.
waste generatedjdave also been expressed quantitatively in terms of BOD and COD
In order to produce valid economic forecasts for varying size planning units, the v
resource economist must have a flexible and comprehensive data base. Traditional Q'
sources, such as the Bureau of the Census - U. S. Department of Commerce, pub; .
data5 which provides a valuable overview to the water resource planner.
Often, however, more detailed, unpublished data is necessary where planning un,
follow a hydrologic format. Data by reporting establishment must be sorted ^
manipulated to produce a valid benchmark or forecast base for hydrologic planning are
of river basins. Of course, this same data may be sorted by county or city and i'urthc
aggregated into economic planning regions.
The State Employment Security Agencies6 have collected and stored an impressn
record of payroll and employment data for administering Unemployment Insuran,
programs. This data has been collected in all of the states, in the territories of Puerto Ri,
and the Virgin Islands. Unemployment Insurance (U.I.) laws vary somewhat from state;
state in such areas as program detail and reporting coverage. Some states have, f,
example, full coverage in unemployment-insured industries. Other states have require.
U.I. reports from firms with four or more employees. Supplementary employment daL
may be obtained from the Federal Bureau of Old Age and Survivors Insurant
(B.O.A.S.I.) of the Social Security Administration to bring coverage up to a universe c
''100 percent" in these "partial coverage" states.
The State of Virginia provides a good illustration where U.I. coverage was partial fo
years (required of firms with four or more employees) in unemployment insurei
industries. An amendment (effective January 1, 1<>72) to the Virginia U.I. law extendeo
coverage to firms with one or more employees in unemployment insured industries
Certain types of employers are still excluded from U.I. coverage. Federal and loc;,
government, railroads, churches and state government (except non-teaching staffs 01
hospitals and institutions of higher learning) remain exempt from U.I. coverage.
All states, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands submit U.I employment and payroli
data to the Manpower Administration under the report designation Employment Securm
(E.S.) 202, The E.S. 202 report is forwarded in the form of a computer print-out. This
record (E.S. 202) is assembled using individual establishment reports, i.e., the Employer;
Quarterly Contribution Report (see facsimile - figure 1). The Contribution Reports are
audited for completeness and accuracy, and then key-punched. Each Contribution Repon
contains the following identification:
In addition to an every-five year Census of Manufacturers, the U. S. Department of Commerce.
Bureau of the Census also conducts Annual Surveys of Manufacturing during interim years.
The State Employment Security Agencies are affiliated with the Manpower Administration
(formerly the Bureau of Employment Security) of the V. S. Department of Labor
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ECONOMIC I ORECASTING FOR VIRGINIA
%5
I A four-digit Standard Industrial Classification (S.i.C ) Code
2. A three-digit area code designating the county or city in winch the reporting
establishment is physically located
5. A six-digit serial or identification number unique to each establishment
A?> was mentioned, U.I Contribution Reports are filed quarterly and contain (in
Virginia) the following data.
1. Monthly employment
2. Gross Quarterly Payroll
3. Gross Quarterly Payroll subject to Unemployment Insurance
4. Quarterly contribution, i e.. L1 1. tax
5. Quarter and year liability (to U 1.) started
6. Report date (quarter and year)
VIRGINIA EMPtOYMENT COMMISSION
2nd MO
3,0 MO
DATA
d HoK«d but ->ei
YES in Whole
YES, In Part
j ' TO1A. WAGES tor avor*er including remunerati
3e - id ncludi»g oovrr-e-M over S4 200
S3 COO prior to January ' '972,
ur.« January Ut VI000 p»o,
Dot* of t
CAICUUTIOM QF
A, CONTRIBUTION • Mutt-ply totoi o* Line 3 by fox rot*
abov*
5 CREDIT MEVOS NO'S ,'
I (Atwoys ottotH wKifa cooy of Cred'* Memo» )
per month from du« dot* to do*« O* poymtnl
7 TOTAL AMOUNT oue for wh.
j DEDUCT
rota of 1%
DO NO' want IN fMlS SPACE if f
I, (or n thit report required >n accofdone* with the Virgifo Unemoloy
ment Compeniation Act. it tru» and correct and thor no port of the contribution reported wov or is to be, deducted
Signatur« _
T,tl«
BATCH NUMBER
ORIGINAL . RETURN TO COMMISSION
VECfC 20(11 101 71) (MOM 10-1 71)
Figure 1. Contribution Report.
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Becker, Griffin, Jr. and Lown
MANUFACTURING DATA
Of these items above, employment (item #1) and gross quarterly payroll (nem „,
of particular importance to the water resource planner. Payroll is of special reie,"'
since when cumulated by quarter to an annual figure it is a major conipone*",
value-added. This index, value-added, has been and is currently used extensively ','
economic indicator (past, present and future) of water-use and waste generated Th'V
payroll in manufacturing is also an important component of gross manufacturing o< •-
or value-of-product.
As a prerequisite for access to the E.S. 202 - U.I. data, it is necessary trn-
requesting agency be aware of the publication restraints and data non-disclo-
requirements. In Virginia the publication criteria are as follows.
1. The industry group must include at least three independent reporting funvM-
companies — not establishments).
2. The industry's employment must be sufficiently dispersed so that the cotnbi:
employment of the two largest firms does not exceed 80 per cent of the jrcu-
total. |
3. Individual firm data may not be published or disclosed verbally under „;. !
circumstances. •
4. E.S. 202 data may not be used for law enforcement purposes, except in •;. I
administration of the U.I. law under which the data is required. i
In most states, other detailed economic data germane to water resource planning <• '
available in both published and unpublished form. In many instances, the unpublishe: '
data by firm or reporting establishment is an extremely flexible planning tool. The dau :
usually has been collected by reporting unit and contains identification which is similar t,.
and compatible with the U.I. reports discussed above In Virginia, an Annual Survey >/
Manufacturers is conducted by the State Department of Laboi and Industry This surve\
is based on a selected sample and represents about 75 per cent of all manufacturing •
activity in the State. Firms which participate in the survey :ire assigned the following
identification data:
1. A four-digit Standard Industrial Classification code
2. A three-digit county or city code
3. A five-digit serial or identification number
The Annual Survey of Manufacturers is conducted by a mailed questionnaire referred
to as the S-l form. Questionnaire data items include:
1. Total employment
2. Production worker employment
3. Salaries and wages (total payroll)
4. Wages paid to production workers
5 Net selling value-of-product
6. Cost of materials
7. Contract work
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i,c ONOMK."T ORE CASTING FOR VIRGINIA %'
J. Phy-ical volume-of-prod'J'jt
') ( apital expenditures
if) Anticipated capital expenditures
I | ( ost and quantity (KWH) ot electric power consumed
Value-added is not purveyed directly as a questionnaire item. It can be easily
uiiipiited, however, as follows
Value-added = (Net selling value of products)
- (Cost of materials) - (Contract work)
The same publication and disclosure restrictions as outlined regarding the E.S 202 -
i ! data apply to the Annual Survey of Manufacturing records, (t.e . S-l data).
In Virginia, extensive water resource and water quality management plans are being
vveloped for the nine major river basins (see River Basin Map - figure 2). These studies
v.-re begun by the Virginia Division of Water Resources in 1966 and are being completed
-; the Virginia State Water Control Board (see footnote i) This planning is
wing approached in a six volume format.7 Within Volume !1 - Economic Base Study,
.'insiderable emphasis is placed on the analysis of manufacturing data. This priority
•-.•ilects the significance of high water-use and related high waste potential of many
.unufacturing categories.
Much water resource planning is conducted on a hydrologic format. In order to
•press benchmark manufacturing data on a hydrologic basis, a major rearrangement of
i S 202 U.I. data and S-l data (Annual Survey of Manufacturing) was necessary. This
RIVER BASINS IN VIRGINIA
Figure 2. Major River Basins in Virginia.
iy .
'"me I - Introduction; Volume II - Economic Base Study; Volume III - Hydrologic Analysis;
r' V Water Resource Problems and Requirements; Volume V - Engineering Development
lv"; Volume VI - Implementation of Development Alternatives.
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Becker, Griffin, Jr. and town
realignment of the data went beyond the normal county and city format. The c
city codes were useful, however, as a broad hydrologic sort routine. As a prelimm.'
the punched cards for both the E.S. 202 file and the S-l file were interpreted an'
by county and city. Obviously, many counties and cities are completely within th/
hydrologic areas. In those counties or cities which are situated in two or more hviV
areas, however, detailed address determinations of individual firms had to be mad
necessary, therefore, to have address data for each reporting form or establishment *
was a specific as possible regarding physical location. Usually the firm's mailing
coincided closely with the firm's physical location. Based on this address
hydrologic address determination could be made. This task was especially easy
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ECONOMIC f-ORECASTING FOR VIRGINIA 969
K = Asymptote or limit which the trend value approaches as x approaches infinity
, = The distance from the asymptote to the Y-mtercept
h - The base of the exponential equal to the constant ratio between successive first
differences of the log Y
Two other growth trends which are useful as forecasting equations are the Modified
• ^ponential and the Pearl-Reed (logistic). These equations may be categorized with the
, mpertz trend in the broad family of exponential curves. The general equations for the
"fjr!-Reedand the Modified Exponential may be written as follows:
Pearl-Reed Modified Exponential
Yc = - - - Yc = K + ab x
I + H) a + bx
The Pearl-Reed curve traces a pattern in which the first differences of the reciprocals
'he Yc values are declining by a constant percentage. The Modified Exponential curve
Bribes a trend where the amount of growth declines by a constant percentage.
hgure 3 provides an illustration of a typical exponential growth curve. As is evident,
trend line (TT) increases, but at a decreasing rate on the right of the point of
;:tion. The horizontal line (KK') marks the upper limit of growth or the horizontal
• :'iptote.
\symptotic growth curves approaching horizontal limits were fitted to the price
'ted U.I. payroll data. Whenever a valid "data fit" was established, an equation
'id An extension of the curve marked a trend of possible growth. Several growth
•'' luted to various intervals of data in the same historical series were used to create a
v" o! projections. Value-added, gross manufacturing output and employment were
••"led to payroll data for the forecast reference points.
Vr to growth curve fitting, it is well to look critically at several aspects of the data
'•"** study area:
^R appraisal should be made to determine if historical growth experience by the
'-dustry under study is actually a valid trend.
s 'he available data record of sufficient length to present a representative trend in
. 'he "ea and industry under study?
he historical record of sufficient magnitude to represent a data base wide enough
^Portend future industrial development?
' experience indicates that price adjusting U.I. Payroll data is an absolute necessity
growth curve fitting. Price adjusting, of course, eliminates the fluctuations of
^ deflation, leaving "real" changes. Unfortunately, there is no "ideal" price
'•- iyTCe adJusting payroll or labor costs.
Resale Price Index9 (published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (B.L.S.), U.
' * Vk
">-rijn! e P*'06 Index ". . . is an index of the prices at the primary market levels where the
^ tul C°mmercial transaction for each commodity occurs." (Tuttle, 1957). "Wholesale', as
'; Jist h thC index' tefers to sales in large quantities, not to prices received by wholesalers,
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970
Becker, Griffin, Jr. and Lown
S. Department of Labor) has proven quite satisfactory when applied to m
payroll data. Most applications have been on the two-digit S.I.C. level using th *!!*'
converted to 1970. ' "' .
The Bureau of Water Resources of the Virginia State Water Control Boa H
available 15 years (1956-1970) of U.I. employment and payroll data. An itu"
computer is currently being used for the exponential curve fitting routines. Previ "*
Olivetti Programma 101 (a programmable calculator) and an IBM 1130 compel
used. The IBM 360 has, of course, greatly expedited curve fitting and extra'-'
routines. ' '
Utilizing the "360" program, fifteen years of historical payroll data v/ere fit-
three exponential curves — Gompertz, Modified Exponential and Logistic (Pearl k
The data was analyzed in 6, 9, 12 and 15-year intervals. For fifteen consecutive •,-
data, this method resulted in twenty-two possible curve fits for each two-digit S 1 C •,
there were several different forms which the exponential curves could take, consi-
were built into the program to eliminate the curves which did not fit a pattern of n
growth. The desired shape of the growth curve was that which sloped upward to the •
approaching some horizontal limit, while increasing at a decreasing rate (see figure "•.,
400
390
300
250
O
o
£ 200
O)
z
2 iso
_i
_i
i
100
50
I960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
YEARS
Figure 3. U.I..Pay_roU_estimates and projections in transportation,
communications and public utilities for the Southeastern Virginia
Planning District (data expressed in constant 1970 dollars).
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ECONOMIC IORKCASTING FOR VIRGINIA
07!
Fifteen years of annual payroll-data (!Q5h-1^70) were read in for each industry The
first six-year period (1956-1%!) was anal wed, and the exponential equation was
developed. If the equation did not violate the built-in constraints, then the program
extrapolated tiie historical data from the initial year of the fit period (in this case 1956)
to the year 2020. !f the equation violated the constraints, a message was printed out
indicating that there was. no tit for that ^e^es. The second group of consecutive years of
payroll data (1957-1962) was then analy/ed This continued duough the twenty-two
possible combinations until the final serial ( 1956-1970) had been analyzed.
The extrapolated universe payroll values, payroll-per-employee, S-l value-added, S-l
gross manufacturing output and S-l payroll were used in a Programming Language 1
(PL1) program which generated a table of protections for value-added, gross manu-
facturing output, payroll and employment The tables were structured for photographic
reproduction directly Irom the printout, thus eliminating virtually all typing and
proofing. The value-added projections were developed by computing die ratio ot S-l
payroll and S-l value-added tor the benchmark year. This ratio was applied to the
extrapolated payroll figures to develop the universe value-added projections The gross
manufacturing output protections were developed in much ihe same way The ratio of S-l
payroll to S-l gross manufacturing output was computed for the benchmark year, and
this was applied to the extrapolated payroll values to give gross manufacturing output
projections. The extrapolated payroll values were divided by the extrapolated payroll-
per-employee figure to develop employment projections for each S.I.C group.
Because of the large volume of output from the exponentials, another method of
analysis has been devised which expedites the evaluation of the extrapolations. A curve
plotting routine has been added to the exponential programs so that each curve that
extrapolates is also graphed. This enables the analyst to pick the best fit from the plots
without having to analyze reams of computer punt-outs. A FORTRAN IV10 program has
been written to utilize the plotter capability of the IBM 360. This plotter routine will
graph the price-adjusted historical payroll data and all possible extrapolations. By
employing transparent plotting paper and a uniform scaling factor, an overlay effect is
created for the graphic extrapolations within each S.I.C. The three exponentials -
Gompertz, Pearl-Reed and Modified Exponential - are thereby grouped and the trend
selection process is greatly facilitated. A clustering effect is a "reasonable" indication of a
medium range projection.
A COBOL1' routine is used at this point to expand the extrapolated U.I. payroll to a
universe. This universe payroll figure will include U.I. payroll, B.O.A.S.I, payroll and
non-covered payroll. Universe employment data can then be estimated by dividing the
universe payroll projections by extrapolations of payroll-per-employee. Value-added and
gross manufacturing output (value-of-product) can be projected through correlation of
benchmark payroll to value-added and payroll to gross manufacturing output (G.M.O.).
POPULATION STATISTICS
In Virginia, the Division of State Planning and Community Affairs (D.S.P.C.A.) has
FORTRAN IV is a computer language which is used most frequently in scientific and
engineering applications. The term FORTRAN relates to the primary use of the language: FORmula
TRANslating.
1 COBOL is a computer language which is used extensively in business and commerical data
processing. The term COBOL is derived from the expression COmmon Business Oriented Language.
2-33
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Average annual rate of change = p _ " I Xt
W [
Y Xl
e.g. X[ = 5,629,000 - 1990 State low
Xj = 5,198,000 - 1980 State low
n =10 (years)
R = 0.00799
A set of ten constants were then computed, live high (Hj) and five low (Lt). These can
be defined for each ten-year period as the differences between R for the high protection
(RHj) and R for the medium (RM[), and the difference between RM[ and for die low
(RLj):
LI = RMi-RL, i = l,5
These constants were then applied to each county and city in developing the high and
low projections.
RC[ was computed for each county and city for each ten-year period, using
D.S.P.C.A.'s medium projections:
972 Becker, Griffin, Jr. and Lown
i
been designated as the agency responsible for the State's population projections. This
Division (D.S.P.C.A.) has recently published population forecasts for all counties and
cities in Virginia. These projections are on an every ten year basis to the year 2020.
The planning guidelines of the Virginia Division of Water Resources required a range of
population forecasts. The range of projections (high, medium and low) reflect varying
demographic assumptions. The low projections assume a very subdued rate of industrial
development and continued out-migration of the resident population. The medium
forecast is based on a rather vigorous industrial development program. An extremely
accelerated rate of economic growth is implicit in the high projection. High and low
projections were generated by fitting the compound interest rate formula above and
below the D.S.P.C.A. forecast (medium). This trend fitting was accomplished using a
FORTRAN IV program on an IBM 1130 computer. County and city population
projections developed by the Virginia Division of State Planning and Community Affairs
were used by the Division of Water Resources as the medium range on which the high and
low projections were based.
The following high and low control totals (in thousands) were assumed for the entire
state:
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
High 5,632 6919 8,500 10,140 12,100
(Medium) 4,648 5,415 6.284 7,222 8,217 9,340
Low 5,198 5,629 6,100 6,600 7,100
The average annual rate of change was computed for each ten-year period using the
compound interest rate formula:
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ECONOMIC FORECASTING FOR VIRGINIA 973
Xl
For a given county or city, then, the high projections were computed as follows:
Hi (1980) = (1970 Popl'n) (I 0 + /// + RC I) 10
Hi (1990) = Hi (1980) (1.0 + II2 + RC2) 10, etc.
and the low:
Lo (1980) = (1970 Popfn) (1.0 - L / + RC{) ]0
La (1990) = 1.0(1980)11.0-1^+ RCij 1°. etc.
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
An analysis of Virginia's bituminous coal mining industry was made in Volume II —
Economic Base Study of the Tennessee and Big Sandy River Basins. Three basic economic
indicators - production, employment and productivity - were presented. Production in
the coal industry is measured in mine tonnage and has experienced an increasing trend in
Virginia since the late 19th century. Record keeping has been quite good in this industry
and a comprehensive set of historical data12 is available from the Virginia Department of
Labor and Industry. Based on the availability and continuity of this data, growth curve
fitting and extrapolation was selected as a reasonable forecasting technique.
Asymptotic growth curves describe a mineral industry passing through the following
stages:
1. Period of initial exploration, market development and limited production, a phase
characterized by slow growth .
2. Stage of sharply increasing production and rapid expansion
3. Period of relative stability where the growth rate levels off with the main emphasis
on operating efficiency and cost minimization
The three exponential curves (Gompertz, Pearl-Reed and Modified Exponential)
discussed on the above pages were used in this analysis.
The medium range projection represented the rates of growth believed to be the most
probable. High and low projections were also developed. These three forecasts provided a
range of data wherein certain water resources planning alternatives could be tested.
Basically the same approach (asymptotic growth curves) was used to project the future
low employment trend in the coal industry. Because of the historically declining
employment series, a low range curve with a negative trend and a lower limit was fitted
and extrapolated.
Annual Reports, Virginia Department of Labor and Industry, 1951-68.
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Becker, Griffin, Jr. and Lown
CURRENT PROJECTS
Recent emphasis in Virginia has been on Metropolitan/Regional Plans to the State's
Water Quality Management Plan. The Metropolitan/Regional Plans are being develop
for Virginia's twenty-two planning districts. Since the planning districts are aggregations
of entire counties and cities, the data base, described above, was arrayed and manipuiate/j
using the three-digit county or city codes. The basic economic parameters developed m
the river basin plans, discussed above, were also generated for the Metropolitan/Regional
Plans.
Data is currently being developed for a special water quality management study for the
lower James River Basin. The project (The Lower James River Basin Comprehensive
Management Study), often referred to as the -'3c" Study, was authorized under Section
3(c) of the 1965 Federal Water Pollution Control Act. The purpose of the 3(c) Sludy ,s
to develop a viable water quality management plan for one of the most intensively
developed sections of Virginia's largest river basin.
The data being assembled for the "3c" Study will include standard parameters for all
industries and will follow a county and city format Economic data for the "3c" Study is
being generated in terms of a 1970 benchmark and ten-year projections to the year 2020
Those indexes requiring price adjustments have been expressed in constant 1970 dollars
The forecasting methodology for the "3c" Study data will generally parallel the
techniques discussed regarding the manufacturing data. Again, extrapolations of "growth
curves" fitted to price adjusted payroll data will be correlated to other parameters such as
employment and sales. The major exception will be in .1 shift trom the IB.L.S. Wholesale
Price Index to the B.L.S. Consumer Price Index for price adjusting historical payroll data.
The "3c" Study will place considerable emphasis on "real" income of the Study area in
relation to the proposed expenditures for water quality management. Payroll data (for all
industries) price adjusted with the Consumer Price Index should produce a fairly realistic
indication of how local income can meet expenditure recommendations Certain
non-payroll data, however, such as manufacturing value-added, gros:, manufacturing
output and wholesale trade receipts will be adjusted with the Wholesale Price Index
CONCLUSIONS
Economic data adds an important dimension to water resource and water quality
management planning. Payroll and employment statistics collected to administer State
Unemployment Insurance programs have a multitude of applications m economic analysis
and forecasting. U.I. data is a continuous, carefully maintained and relatively extensive
set of historical records. It has been accumulated under national guidelines of the U. S.
Department of Labor, Manpower Administration and is quite uniform in format. U.I.
records have, for years, been structured for data processing applications. Further
manipulation of this data such as price adjusting and trend fitting are thus facilitated.
Most of the standard economic parameters of water resource and water quality
management planning such as value-added and gross manufacturing output have been
correlated to U.I. payroll and employment benchmarks. The Annual Survey of
Manufacturing (Virginia Department of Labor and Industry) piovides value-added and
gross manufacturing output data. County and city detail and a data processing format is
an important feature of the Annual Survey (S-l). Both the U.I. and S-l data have been
further formated by hydrologic area in Virginia. On balance, the U.I. and S-l data have
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ECONOMIC FORECASTING FOR VIRGINIA 975
become valuable tools for water'resource and water quality management planning in
Virginia.
LITERATURE: CITED
Tuttlo, Alva \l. 1957. Elementary Business and Economic Statistics. New York, N. Y. McGraw-Hill
Book Company, Inc.
U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1971. Handbook of Labor Statistics, Bulletin
1705. Washington, D.C.
U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1970. Patterns of U. S. Economic Growth.
Bulletin 1672. Washington, D C.
Virginia Department of Labor and Indu>try. 1951-68. Annual Reports. Richmond. Virginia.
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ECONOMIC VALUATION OF SHORELINE
Gardner M. Brown, Jr. and Henry O. Pollakowski*
I.. Introduction
O HORELINE development is a growing
^J public policy issue in many urban areas.
While there is some published research on a
related topic, the importance of ambient water
quality, economists have not yet turned their
attention to the economic significance of the
existence and width of the undeveloped apron
offering public use and access to bodies of
water in urban areas. There are several
important issues to be considered here. May we
expect the urban land market to provide a
solution which is Pareto efficient? Have public
agencies through zoning and other building
restrictions acted in a socially optimal way''
What contribution can studies of the de-
terminants of property values make to our
understanding of these issues? We begin an
exploration of these issues and present some
empirical results that enhance our knowledge
of the economics of water-related open space.
More generally, this paper extends recent
economic work that has produced quantitative
measures of value for phenomena hitherto
restricted to qualitative expression The process
of transforming qualitative into quantitative
knowledge, so essential to an empirical science
as to be one of Us distinguishing features, is
well illustrated b\ the work of C'ubb and
Douglas on production (1928). Gnhches (I%I)
on the qualitative characteristics of automo-
biles, and Fogel and I-ngerman's (1974)
Received for publication December 1. IV"? Revision
accepted for publication Septembei 11 I97ti
•Richard Parks. Richard Haitman l.evis Kochm,
Ronald T rosper, Cindy Watts, and in anonymous reieree
provided helpful criticism of earlier versions ol this paper
Ron Johnson, our research assistant, deserves credit lor
many valuable suggestions, including the germ of the idea
in the final section The \vork upon which ihis paper is
based was supported in part by funds provided by ihe
United States Department of the Interior. Office of Water
Resources Research as authorized under the Water
Resources Research Act of 1964 through the State of
Washington Water Research Center Henry Pollakowski
also acknowledges partial support by National Institutes
of Health research grant number I ROI HD07410-02 from
the National Institute of Child Health and Human
Development, Center for Population Research
[272]
controversial piece on slavery.1 Wiih respect to
housing, implicit prices of each attribute
contained in the bundle of housing services
have been estimated by hedonic price re-
gressions in the spirit of the work by Lancaster
(1971) and others.2
In the following sections we first examine the
choice of housing attributes, including water-
related open space and proximity to bodies of
water, faced by a household in a metropolitan
area. Next, the process of implicit price
formation is examined, and, employing data on
individual dwelling units in a metropolitan area
with numerous bodies of water, these implicit
prices are estimated. We then turn to the
question of what can and cannot be inferred
from these results about the demand for open
space and the welfare gains or losses resulting
from possible changes in the amount of
water-related open space.
II. Implicit Price Estimation
-\ given housing unit is best characterized as
consisting of a bundle of attubutes which
describe the structure itself, the land upon
which it is huili. and the relevant locational
characteristics. We thus view pioMinity to
water and water-related open space (i.e. the
land contiguous to water to which the public
has access and which we define as setback) as
' Rt-'se.nch ihai Uerues the .mplicit -.alue ot natural
environmental .uuinuies or activitiei that use natural
environment intensively includes tiic work by Hammack
and Brown on waterfowl ( I'"1"-}) cattle bingn and Brown
(1964) and Mathers and Brown (l^"0f on ".ports salmon
fishing, and DLIMS I l%4) and Krulilla and Fisher (1975)
on wilderness Ihe Krutilla and Hshei reference both
refers to and summarizes interesting related research bv
Cicchetti and V k Smith
'Contributions employing micro data and specifying ;he
bundle of housing services in an interesting manner
include Kam anil" Quigley (197Q). King (1973), Polla-
kowski (1973, 1977). and Grether and MiesAowski (I9"4)
The natural environmental attribute so studied has been
ambient air quaht\ See Freeman (1974). P^lmsky and
Shavell (1975. 19"6) and Srna!l (19,'5) for discussion of
the theoretical issues involved in interpreting the results o!
the air quality studies and for further references
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ECONOMIC VALUATION OF SHORELINE
two locational attributes of the housing bundle.
At any given tune, there exists a given
distribution over space of the supplies of these
attributes \Ve make this assumption since the
housing stock is altered only slowly over time.
and because some attributes, such as certain
neighborhood amenities, are supplied perfectly
tnelastically.
On the demand side, assuming a given
spatial distribution of employment and a given
distribution of preferences and income over
households, we ma> envision a distribution
over space of demands for these attributes The
housing market is thus viewed as consisting of
implicit markets for each of the attributes of
housing, broadly defined, and it is assumed
that at any given point in time a vector of
implicit short-run equilibrium prices exists.
For the sample areas, estimates of the
marginal implicit prices of each of the dwelling
unit attributes were obtained by regressing
dwelling unit selling price on the set of
variables representing the attributes that con-
stitute the relevant housing package. The
choice of functional form to be employed was
based upon a number of considerations. There
are, of course, a large variety of possible
nonlmeanties and interactions among housing
attributes one may wish to consider. Limited
experimentation, however, with functional
forms other than linear ones did not substan-
twely alter our basic results. We thus chose to
present results of the linear form, while altering
any right-hand variables whenever there was an
* priori reason to believe that an important
nonlineanty existed.3
The- sample areas or Neighborhoods are
iocated in Seattle: this city is ideal for our
purpose since it contains numerous and varied
bodies of water, some of which are surrounded
by open space and some of which are not.
Numerous potential sample areas located close
'o bodies of water were considered for use. The
"lost important objective was to achieve a
relatively high degree of homogeneity within
an-d across areas. Neighborhoods chosen were
S'rnilar m topography, non-water-related
neighborhood characteristics, and accessibility.
3See Grether and Mieszkowski (1974) for further
discussion of choice of functional form and for a
comparison of results ortin^ar and semilegamlunic forms..
•\reas that contained or were adjacent to large
commercial zones were eliminated from con-
sideration, and only those areas adjacent to
bodies of vvuter used extensively for recreation
purposes were employed. The number of
feasible choices of areas with setback was
severely limited by lack ot variation in the
width of the setback area m numerous areas.
Finally, a number of otherwise acceptable
areas were eliminated due to physical obstruc-
tions such as railroad tracks that inhibited
ready access to the waters edge or setback
area.
This selection p'ocedure yielded three areas
--one exhibiting significant variation in set-
back width and two with no setback Each of
these ,yreas is an almost exclusively single-
family residential area, and since each area is
within the Seattle city limits nominal property
tax rates do not vary One of the areas without
setback is located on Lake Washington, a very
large inland body of water. I he remaining two
areas encircle two smaller lakes. Green Lake
(vvith setback) and Mailer Lake (without
setback). The boundaries ot the sample areas
were based, in part, on pievious work by others
which indicates that the contribution of a water
resource to property values generally is not
significant beyond 4.000 feet from the water's
edge.4 In one area (Green Lake). 4.000 feet was
used. In the other areas. 2.200 feet was selected
because our criteria for homogeneity would
have been violated had a greater distance been
included. For example, in one area a change in
topography at a distance of 3.000 feet was
accompanied by a sharp change in racial
composition of the dwellers.
The data employed consist of market sales
data for dwelling units in these areas sold
during the period 1969-1974. The data were
obtained from listings of sales data gathered
from real estate sources.5 For each observation,
this data source includes selling price and a
rather rich description of the structural attri-
butes. The selling price data were deflated to
constant 1967 dollars by use of a price index
"See- for example, Dornbusch and Barrager (1972).
5 Sales data, incjuding selling price and corresponding
structural characteristics, were obtained from the monthly
publications of the SREA Market Data Center Inc., April
1969 to June 1974.
2-39
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274
THE REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
for Seattle single family dwellings.6 The open
space variable employed was constructed by
measuring the width of setback area abutting
the water and .closest to. the dwelling unit in~
question. Setback appears in log form in the
regression because we had a strong reason to
believe that the relationship between setback
and selling price was a nonlinear one. That is,
we believed that as setback width was
increased, marginal contribution to housing
value would decrease. We thus assume that the
marginal implicit price of setback vanes with
the quantity of this attribute purchased. The
distance to waterfront was measured as the
shortest linear distance from the dwelling unit
to the nearby waterfront. It, too, appears in the
regression in log form because we believe the
relationship between distance to waterfront and
housing value is essentially nonlinear.
The regression results are presented in tables
1 and 2, It should be noted that not all of the
structural information on the individual dwell-
ing units is employed.7 A number of these
structural variables, such as a set of dummy
variables representing different heating fuels
used, made essentially no explanatory contribu-
tion in earlier regressions and are thus deleted
in the results presented here. Since tests on
preliminary regression runs indicated the
presence of heteroscedasticity. all observations
are weighted by I/living area
Table 1 presents results foi our setback area
(Green Lake), one of the more interesting areas
and the one with the largest sample size. The
lake itself has a circumference of about three
miles and is completely surrounded by green
area with public access. The green area
surrounding the lake is very popular for public
use, including a cycling/jogging track and
swimming, fishing, and boating facilities. As
mentioned above, the width of the setback
vanes a good deal as one moves around the
lake, making this an especially appropriate area
to study. In table 2 we present results for a
6A local price index for single family residential sales
within the Seattle metropolitan area was used as a deflator
The source was Seattle Real Estate Research Committee
(Fall 1974)
'Although available, we did not employ the following
structural characteristics' number of rooms above the first
floor; the number of bedrooms, the existence of a"den.
family room, or recreation room: special improvements.
type of garage; and type of heating fuel used
pooled sample consisting of the two areas
without setback, in both cases nearly all of the
coefficient estimates are of the hypothesized
signs and . the explanatory power of the
right-hand variables is quite high.
The results bearing on the value of distance
to waterfront and size of open space are quite
interesting. Applying the appropriate one-iaiiej
/-tests, in each case we can reject at the 001
level the null hypothesis that the coefficient
estimate of the distance to waterfront variable
is zero. In the setback case (table 1), \ve can
reject at the 0.051 level the null hypothesis that
the setback coefficient estimate is zero. Havine
corroborated our presumption that these
variables would be statistically important, the
implications of the actual magnitudes of these
two coefficient estimates are now examined
Consider first the effects of setback itself.
Recall that we are assuming that the re-
lationship between setback size and dwelling
unit value is nonlinear: that the benefits of &
green area along the waterfront to which the
public has access are captured in land values in
the proximity of the body of water: and that
the existence and width of setback in the
TABLE 1 —RHSLLTS FOR GREIN LAKF. \REA
Left-hand Variable: Selling Price (deflated to
1967 dollars)
All observations weighted by 1, living area
,V = M
Variable
Constant term
Living area (sq. ft.)
Age of house
Average room Mze
Number of fireplaces
Number of car garage
Number of rooms 1st storv
Number of bathrooms
D = \ if basement
D = 1 if dishwasher
D = 1 if good or excellent
quality
D = 1 if range and oven
D= \ if hot water heating
D= 1 if wall or floor
furnace heating
D= I if electric heating
Lot size(sq ft.)
D = \ if view
Log of distance to
waterfront
Log of individual setback
size
SSR=197
Coefficient
15700
338
-733
-5 51
1120
074
-311
2830
1260
2010
289
255
1040
-2200
- 1660
- 0 247
573
- 1770
1230
S E. = 1 66
Standard Error
3400
1 17
154
725
415
455
265
007
464
784
486
"MS
1 140
801
903
0.195
693
762
744
R-= 84
Source*, of Data Selling price and structural characteristic
SRt-A Market Dala Center Ine (\pr:l ! l>69 to June H'-t)
Dislanc-e u> waterfront and setback si/e mea-mcd on local maps
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ECONOMIC VALUATION OF SHORELINE
275
T\BIC 2.—Rf.SL'LTS FOR ARfcAS WITHOUT SETBACK
Left-hand Variable: Selling Price (deflated to
1967 dollars)
All observations \veiehted bv 1 / living area
Variable
Constant term
Living area (sq ft )
Age of house
Average room size
Number of fireplaces
Number of car garage
Number of rooms 1st story
Number of bathrooms
D= 1 if basement
0= 1 if dishwasher
0= 1 if good or excellent
quality
D= 1 if range and oven
£>= 1 if hot water healing
D= 1 if wall or floor
furnace healing
0= 1 if electric heating
Lot size (sq. ft )
D=l if view
D=l if in Haller Lake
area
Log of distance to
waterfront
SSR = 380
Coefficient
16500
4.17
-74.6
- 138
417
1510
-444
5120
300
308
289
298
57QQ
-540
-2250
0.235
1340
-1730
-2790
S.E. = 2.33
Standard Error
3580
1 84
40.0
11 6
608
617
399
1190
831
888
649
839
3380
998
1110
0 104
1110
706
548
«'= 78
sample affects all dwelling units which are
proximate to the body of water equally. The
effect of variation in setback in the Green Lake
-area is quite substantial. A dwelling unit
located in an area close to a 200 foot wide
setback will sell for about $850 more than a
comparable one located near a 100 foot wide
setback area. This same dwelling unit, if
located near a 300 foot wide setback area.
would sell for about $1,350 more than if it were
located near a 100 foot setback area.
The estimates of premiums paid for proxim-
ity to shoreline are "very plausible ones for the
Seattle area, and, as we would expect, this
premium declines with distance to waterfront
much more rapidly in the case of no setback
than in the setback case. Applying the
appropriate F-test, we can reject at the 0.05
ievel the null hypothesis that the respective
coefficient estimates of the distance to wa-
terfront variable are equal. In the case of no
setback, we observe that three-fourths of the
location value of proximity to water has been
lost at a distance of 300 feet from the
waterfront.
III. Optimal Open Space
The next question to be examined is whether
the amount of open space around the water
bodies studied is optimal. A necessary first step
is to decide in what manner our estimated
hedonic price equation can be used to answer
this question.
First, consider the measurement of benefits
of open space. Gi\en that willingness to pay is
the appropriate measure of the \alue of open
space, we wish to obtain an estimate of the area
under the demand function for open space The
estimated hedonic price function itself is most
appropriately viewed as an opportunity locus
facing households in the housing market.8
Taking the derivative of this function with
respect to setback gives a marginal implicit
price function. This function, which will be
downward-sloping and convex from below in
the case of setback, is most appropriately
viewed as the locus of the marginal willingness
to pay functions of households.
Assume that the characteristics embedded in
housing are not obtainable by the purchase of
other products, and that utility functions are
weakly separable between housing service
characteristics and other chaiactenstics. If we
then assume that migration among metropoli-
tan areas is possible, that households have
equal incomes, and that households have
identical utility functions, it follows that all
households will have identical marginal will-
ingness to pay functions.0 In this case, the
estimated marginal implicit price function may
be appropriately viewed as the marginal
willingness to pay function, and an estimate of
the value of open space may be obtained from
the function we have estimated. Given the
nature of the assumptions necessary to make
this calculation, there is good reason to regard
the results obtained as indicating only rough
orders of magnitude.10'"
8See Freeman (1974) and Rosen (1974) for a more
detailed discussion of these matters.
'Polmsky and Shavell (1976). assuming identical
Cobb-Douglas utility functions and equal incomes,
identify the demand function for air quality in a general
equilibrium model.
10If we wished to consider only very small changes in
open space, it would not be necessary to assume identical
preferences. While separability between open space and all
other characteristics must be assumed in this case, it may
not be unduly restrictive given the degree of change
envisioned. See Small (1975) on this matter. We must
further assume a zero income elasticity demand for
setback in order to make the estimated demand curve
correspond to a compensated demand curve. The latter
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276
THE REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATIST ICS
The determination of optimal open space is
straightforward. If those \vho benefit from the
water-related open space are also the owners or
renters of property, then the added value for all -
property affected by slightly changing the
amount of open space should just offset the
cost of buying the property or the added space.
Since a land value gradient can be computed
from the estimated hedomc price equation, we
have enough information to perform a rough
calculation.12
On the assumption that the boundary of a
water body is well described by a circle with
radius r, and that all properties have the same
area A, the number of properties within a band
of land of width Q from the water's edge is
given by
The marginal number of properties at Q is
Optimal open space is found by maximizing
with respect to open space, Qs.
Q
= \ \ (O)V(Q.O
J
Q,
1
'<2s.\"(0)l
where ('((2-0,) is the value of a property whose
distance to the water is Q. and where (5, is the
width of_ the strip of open space around the
water. Q is the distance from the shoreline
beyond which it is assumed that properties no
longer benefit from this open space
The first expression on the right-hand side of
(1) represents the benefits of setback or open
space, embodying the assumption that all
provides a conceptually preferable basis for estimating
willinuness to pay
11 XVhen assumptions stated in the text cannot be made.
Freeman (1974) proposes a pragmatic -olulion for
estimating the value of environmental change SimpU
compute the marginal benefit for ea^h individual usung the
hedomc price equation, tmd the mean value and assume
the demand curve is linear This "demand" curve will cut
through the marginal hedomc price equation revealing that
people on the lower end of the ad hoc "demand" curve are
willing to oay less than actually has been observed We
point out this limitation without prejudging the practicality
of the suggestion
12 There may be added cost of restoring the purchased
land to "open space" qual'tv if it was formerly developed.
but this is an analytically inessential point
property located between the edge of the on->
space and Q benefits from open space T^
second expression on the right-hand side of (\\
-represents the opportunity cost of open sp^,'
the foregone private value of each propel,
which could have been located between -i'.''
water's edge and the terminus of the on^
space. Anticipating the next stage, we den-"^
the inverse demand function for open space C
h(Qs) and note that u is simply dl'(Q.O )/,)Q
Figure 1 illustrates the nature of the probl^Ti
In the absence of any setback or public acce-
the value of all property at the lake shore nrri
equals N0V0. The value of property decline'^
with distance until a distance of Q is reached
When setback equals £>.,• the value of (»
property at that distance from water is higher
than it would have been in the absence of
setback. The optimal setback occurs when the
loss of private property value near the shore
(2o-^o' o-^Q;- 1S compensated by the gain to
remaining properties. ABCE. from additional
setback.
The necessary condition for a maximum b
lQ*'(Q)h(Q,)dQ- [Q'*'(Q)ti(Q>)dO
•'Q, Jo
Revising, after noting that h(0.) is independent
of O. yields
Q'
\
A comparison between actual and optimal
open space is made by drawing on the results
for Green Lake, and by assuming that the area
under the marginal implicit price function
accurately reflects willingness to pay Optimal
open space is about !00 feet compared to the
actual average distance of about 3'X) feet \t
100 feet the net benefit ot open space is about
$13 million, falling about one half million
dollars when the amount of setback is 200 feet.
on average Computed nei benefits fall b\
somewhat more than SI million (about 10^)
when the radius of open space is increased ;o
present levels Of course, many people in the
greater Seattle area benefit from the use of the
open space around Green Lake but do not I'M
within the 4.000 feet perimeter specified in '.he
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ECONOMIC VALUATION OF SHORELINE
E^ $r\i_E. DI?T\SCE re
\SD PROPER!"1! \ \LLE
v.r.e xol
;ample. \V'e have thus provided a lower bound
'o the measurement of total and marginal
jenefus of open space, and this must be borne
.n mind in interpreting the above calculations.
^e cannot conclude confidently that optimal
open space is lower than actual. Note also that
the net benefit function is fairly flat. Under-
sstimaied marginal benefits amounting to less
'-an a capitalized \alue of $100 per house
*ould shift the optimal \vidth of open space to
^OOfeet.13
IV. Open Space: A Public Decision
U is" appropriate to consider open space as a
public good as long as partial rivalry in
consumption (congestion) is not an important
consideration. While an existing owner of
property can capture through exchange a
Portion of the value of open space, should it
aPpreciate — this was the motivating assump-
ton of our empirical investigation — owners of
property cannot individually determine the
°Ptirnum open space. Some form of collective
action is called for. Alternatively, the right to
°eterrnine the open space could be granted,
w'th or without compensation, to an om-
niscieru entrepreneur, admonishing him to
The number of homes benefiting is about 6,300. The
dlscussion is in terms of 100 foot increments to conform
*llh customary lot dimensions.
• \rERFRosr benav e >.'• .1
competitive _-.,-! :>;; .>" Bu
unconventional ,.xpec' to
which makes the reguiau
cumbersome one
Our empirical rexul'.x indicate
of a property taPs wth d'.xta
water '4 Theretore. the n\.r^i:'..u vox; or
pro-peity exchanged in a competitive "i.nket is
falling as we move avv^v f'om t'ne wv.;er Since
the average cost is gre.iter than marci'ial cos;
an entrepreneur seeking at', optima! amount of
open space cannot cover h'x coxtx it v vi'.-.vx
tne ci mpe'nt'.ve prescription ot xett''!c p-^e
ecjual to marginal ».ost of open space \\ ill
benef.cianes Eu'nei the enuepreneu: ;'i'.:s' ne
permitted to deviate from marginal co>> piling
or he must receive a subsidy T"ne othei ni.iioi.
solution is for the public sector to '.ike direct
responsibiliu [or piovid'ng optima', open space
Falling cost p!u> itubilir, to exclude are two
traditional economic tea.xons why trie de-
termination of open space around water bodies
is likely to remain vety much a public issue and
will be resolved by the public sector
Of course, with falling marginal costs of
acquiring open space, a tuul calculation must
be made to insure that the total benctits of
open space are greater than the total costs This
condition holds for our representative area
REFERENCES
Castle. E N . A Singh, and \V Broun, -tn Economic
Evaluation of the Oreyn Salmon and Siet'lhead
Sport Fishery. Technical Bulletin No 7$ (Corvalhs.
Oregon State University Agricultural Experiment
Station. 1964)
Cobb. C. W, and P. H. Douglas. "A Theory of
Production," American Economic Rene* 18 (Mar
1928), 139-165
Davis. R. K... "The Value of Big Game Hunting in a
Private Forest." Transactions of the Twenty-Ninth
North American Wildlife and Natural Resources
Conference (Washington. D.C.: Wildlife Manage-
ment Institute, 1964^393-403.
Dornbusch, D. M., and S. M. Barrager. Benefit of Water
Pollution Control on Property Values (Washington,
D.C.. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
1972).
Fogel, R. W,. and S. L. Engerman, Time on the Cross. The
Economics of American Negro Slavery (Boston:
Little Brown] 1974).
l4This result also makes analytical sense in the setback
case if the open space yields an unambiguous flow of
favorable services. But it might not Open space can
attract group-? of people who are noisy, thus creating a
disamenity.
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THE REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
Freeman. A. M., "On Estimating Air Fo:iut.on Cc.n:rcl
Benefits from Land Vaiue Studies," J^.-:-l :j
EKzironn-.cn:jl E cc;;jr::cs t^r.J M^::j^n:^::t \ (May
19'4). 74-S3. "
Grether, D. M.. and P. Miesr-kowski. "Deisnrur.ar.ts of
Real Estate Values." J^rr.jl of f,~j:i Ecci-.^n.cs 1
(Apr. 1974). 127-146. '
Gnhches Z.. "Hedonlc Price Indexes of \utcrnobslis- \n
Econometric- A«at>f!S of Quuliu Chiage." The
Pr:ce Statistics of ;he Federal Goverr.r.-.ent. General
Series No 73 (Ne-.v York National Bureau of
Economic Researcn, I9ol).
Hamnuck. J. M. and G. M Bro*n. lij^-rton/ j.iJ
Ht'/.'jnJs: fjKu.'J B.o-<.cc;Kjm.c A/:^i\s:s tBaiti-
more: Johns Hopkins Pre^s, 1974).
Ram, J. K... and J M. Qmgiey. "Measuring the Value of
Housing Quality." Jturr.ji of the American Suusii-
cj/ issxunot 65 (June 19"0). 532-548.
King. \. T.. Prjptn\ Ta\es, Air.smi.es. arj Rts:Jtr.t.jl
LJI^ I j."«« (CambnJce- Balhnger Publishing Co .
19":-1 " "
krutiila. J. V .. and \. C Fixr.er. The Ecor.jm,is cf NJJM/-J/
Eni.rsnmtius. Sl-J:cf in ire I j/'uj;;. •? t-t" C^.nm^j.iv
^"J Imcni:; Res^«rccs (Baltimore: Jonr.s Hopkins
Press, l^'f")
Lancaster. K. .1 . dwurxr Derr^r.^ ^ \o» ArrrJ~c'<
i\eu York Co':urnr Preis. i9"i)
Mathews. S B . and G M Bro«n. Ecc-r. T.IC Em;^:.^-. ji
.r.j j'°o? S.v."/ S-.--.~i r.j ;.\.
Technical Report No. I i._C;>
DipartmeatcfFiihen.es. 19.0). "
Polmsky, A. M.. and S. Shavell. "The AST Poihi.
Property Value Debate," this REMENV ^
19'5). IGo-1 10.
- , "Arnsnif.es and Property Valass ;n a Mod-.
L rban Area." A-,.-..:; sf P.b! c £- ~-*
(Jin.-Feo. 1976X ! 19- !29. " " '
Pollako^ski, H. O . "Thr Hf«cts of Loci! Pabl.c S;
en Residential Location Decisions An Err--
Siudv for the San Francisco Eia\ Area ' -
lished Ph.D. dissertation, L'ni\srii;\ of Ca> ••-
Berkeiev. 1973. " ^
- , "Local Public Services, Rental \aii.e<
Residential Choice." University of V,a:r",n
1977. mimeo.
Rosen, S., "Hedomc Pr.ces and Implicit Markets Pr
Dilfercnuauca in Pure Competition." Jour^
Pjimtjl Ecor.3m\ S2 (Jan ;Feb 1974). 34-^'
Seattle Real Bute Research Committee. R^i
Res?-r;fi Ripen fjr ,r.£ C.n o' S=j.v/-
\ijtrcp^!it^t And (SeAll.i. F^ll \^~4)
Smaii. K A., "Air Pollut.on and Property \iiues F-
Ccmroer.t," this REMEW 57 (Feb. 1975i i\j_|
SREA Market Dau Center Ir.c . Sir^'f rjir..!, Rn^t
Sj:es (.Seattle. April 19&9 to June 19"4>
l'4
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Economics
L. D. JAMES, School of Civil Engineering,
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta,
Ga.
A major event involving the economics
of water pollution control during 1975 was
the release of the draft report of the Na-
tional Commission on Water Quality
(NCWQ).1 In a summary of the report,
Ward 2 noted the projections of down-
ward trends in industrial water use and
pollution control costs and generally small
price impacts resulting from national
water quality standards. Dallaire 3 de-
scribed how federal grants for construc-
tion of municipal water quality control
measures are bogged down in the red tape
of project evaluation; he discussed findings
of NCWQ and EPA that place the cost of
meeting 1983 municipal water treatment
goals as high as $342 bil: $28 bil for waste
treatment,- $79 bil for sewers, and $235 bil
for stormwater treatment and control. The
U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 4 estimated
that 67 pollution control jobs will be gen-
erated for each million dollars of federal ex-
penditure and evaluated the feasibility of
transfering manpower to these jobs from
other areas of science and engineering.
Chase Econometrics r' predicted that the
expenditures as estimated by EPA needed
to meet the deadlines of the Clean Air and
the "Federal Water Pollution Control Acts
would increase prices by annual amounts
reaching a maximum of 1.9 percent in 1976,
thereby slowing economic growth, reducing
the GNP by 2.0 percent, and increasing un-
employment by 0.4 percent in 1979. By
1982, the standards would be met and GNP
and unemployment would be back to un-
affected levels; however, prices would be
tAvo percent higher. An EPA study " es-
timated the annual direct cost to industry
associated with the Toxic Substances (
trol Act to be between $79 and S142
with two-thirds attributable to premr>
screening and regulatory actions and
third attributable to industrial testing
reporting. Dallaire ' reported that the (•
nology needed to achieve the 1983 effl1
limits will be available in most case?
that the more important issue is \\lir
the benefits justify the staggering i
The feeling within industry is that
scheduled rise in standards should In1
layed because of the uncertain ecnn
and the energy situation. Hayne<
Kleeman8 modeled the interaction •
tween the economy and the environ;
in the Coastal Bend region of Texas
predicted little inflationary impact n -
ing from reducing waste discharges .1-
quired by national standards. John-
suggested that PL 92-500 should be
vised in order to reduce the cost of at!.
ing environmental quality and relate'!
cial goals by using the results of comp'1'
Section 208 and other studies to van' ^
quality standards according to re1::
conditions, to vary the means employtv •
water quality control according to rcc1
costs, to deal uniformly with pollution '•
all sources, and to alter the rules gover
federal financing to encourage adopti"1
least-cost alternatives.
As part of the continuing interest of •
omists in environmental issues, Tyb''.'
edited a series of readings on the social •
economic implications of environment.'.'
sues that discussed, among other too
market biases causing pollution and •
nomic alternatives for industrial w •'
treatment. Krutilla ll summarized the ',.-
ings of the National Environments !''
gram at Resources for the Future on w"
odologies for the economic evaluation
natural resources.
On the more practical side of emir
mental economics, Burchell et a/.'2 "'•
lished a standardized approach to the pi'
aration of environmental impact stateim •
to comply with the requirements of the ^
tional Environmental Policy Act (NFF\
for projects including sewerage and « r'
treatment systems . An Institute of Ecol< .
1648 Journal WPCF
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'udyl3 found that environmental impact
Mtements would better serve the goals of
•EPA if they were shortened and written
emphasize the salient aspects of project
•irposes, benefits, environmental effects,
mned mitigation efforts, and major con-
| 'iversies. Dickson et al.lt reviewed and
''served the use of environmental impact
'Uements and reported that the state-
ments are often inadequate for use in mak-
ig decisions. Frequently, the studies are
mited in scope or inadequately defined,
:e efforts are poorly organized and co-
rdinated, and the methodology adopted is
nsuited to the problem at hand. In com-
mion reports, Hill and Ortolano18 and
Randolph and Ortolano 18 examined the in-
"uence of NEPA on federal water plan-
"ing and found it to be reasonably effective
i generating information on direct im-
^acts, but less effective on indirect impacts;
'he process overly emphasizes particular
ilternatives and makes comparisons diffi-
.ult to make, but has generally improved
nteragency coordination.
Ortolano u rejected economic efficiency
is a sufficient criterion for water resources
planning and discussed how multiple ob-
ecrive planning did not overcome his ob-
lections. He advocated a planning process
using public participation in the integration
of four planning activities: identifying con-
cerns, formulating alternatives, analyzing
impact, and ranking plans. In contrast,
Nash 18 advocated revisions in cOst-benefit
analysis procedures in order to promote in-
formed public debate by providing infor-
mation about effects estimated by clearly
stated methods. From information ob-
tained from four water resources planning
studies in diverse sections of the country,
Priscoli19 found that planners and citizen
advisory groups often fail to achieve a com-
mon understanding of their roles; this may
alienate citizens if their once-high expec-
tations are not met. Water quality was
found to be the only area in which the
citizens and planners consistently shared
perceptions and agreed on plans. Richer-
son and Johnston 20 discussed water quality
control objectives from the holistic, recrea-
tion, scenic, health, and economic view-
points and argued that the difficulties en-
countered in comprehensive water quality
planning are caused by divergent and in-
commensurable values and by incomplete
information. Gore et al.21 interviewed 623
residents of the Fall Creek and Canadarago
Lake watersheds in New York to explore
their interest in water pollution. They
found widespread concern and willingness
to act or to pay for pollution control pro-
grams, but little real understanding of what
can be done. It was concluded that any
demonstrably effective program would re-
ceive widespread support.
Krause -2 presented the primary national
water quality planning objectives as mini-
mize natural resource waste; protect public
health and ecosystems; provide an imple-
mentable control system; and permit rapid
decision-making and implementation. In
addition, the progress of current planning
efforts toward achieving these goals in the
context of the effects of irrigation in Kansas
on water quality was discussed. Loucks ~s
evaluated multi-objective techniques from
the viewpoint of political feasibility and
proposed use of a technique that would be
able to simulate the bargaining process and
predict the outcome of the decision-making.
A Technical Committee of the Water Re-
sources Research Centers of the 13 Western
States 2* expanded nine comprehensive so-
cial goals into 128 measurable social indi-
cators and inverted an input-output model
matrix for projecting future values of these
indicators in a comparison of alternatives
for dealing with water supply and salinity
problems in the Rio Grande Basin in New
Mexico. Haimes et al.-* reviewed method-
ologies for employing multiple objectives
in problem solving and advocated the sur-
rogate-worth tradeoff method (in which
the effects of alternatives on expressed
goals are presented for comparison) as one
in which noncommcnsurable objectives can
be handled quantitatively through interac-
tion between the -'ecision-maker and a
mathematical moci''i. Haimes and Hall2B
detailed a particular model that handles
multiple objectives expressed in noncom-
mensurable units hv quantifying tradeoffs
among primary objectives such as concen-
-Vol. 48, No. 6, June 1976 1649
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LITERATURE REVIEW
tration reductions for specific pollutants
and secondary objectives such as reduc-
tion of algal growth or achieving a water
quality suitable for swimming. Cohon and
Marks ?7 adopted operational criteria for
mathematical techniques for multi-objective
analysis of water resources projects. They
determined that a generating technique
weighting the objectives best captures the
essence of problems with up to three ob-
jectives; a technique that restricts the
size of the feasible region such as the sur-
rogate-worth tradeoff method is computa-
tionally more efficient with four or more
objectives. Taylor et al.M advocated goal
programming (linear programming to mini-
mize weighted departures from preselected
goals) as preferable to the surrogate-worth
tradeoff method and the separate consid-
eration of environmental and economic ef-
fects method. Mercer and Morgan 29 ap-
plied the VVeibull probability distribution
as a method for evaluating uncertainty in
four benefit-cost studies.
Bovet30 provided planners with a cri-
tique of the literature on the economic
aspects of water quality management
through reviews of the influence of water
contaminants on various water uses, puri-
fication costs, recycling costs, and tech-
niques for economic optimization of treat-
ment systems. Truett et al.31 developed
planning indices of overall water quality,
of the need for abatement action, and of
the need for water quality management
planning. Cumberland and Stram32 de-
veloped a materials balance accounting
structure to model the waste emission pro-
cess and advocated follow-up research to
develop emission damage functions. Lawr-
ence "jased Los Angeles data and informa-
tion from previously reported studies to de-
velop curves for estimating the economic
impact of supplying water of varying TDS
content to urban water users in various
categories.
Angotti34 analyzed the effectiveness of
regional wastewater treatment systems, us-
ing the Hackensack drainage basin in New
Jersey as an example, and found that re-
gional systems preserve higher water qual-
ity in headwater streams (because wastes
1650 Journal WPCF
are taken downstream for treatment) bir!
are less effective than local systems i.'j
heavily polluted downstream rivers, Bart--
it ad Gutierrez35 described the Comprehen-
sive Water Quality Management Plannic;
program for Pennsylvania; it covers L
types of point and nonpoint pollute
sources of surface and groundwater anc[
encompasses alternative environmental fi>j
tures, financial and institutional design, an:
public participation. Whipple *" describee'
why water qunlity planning for the Del:
ware estuary has been grossly unsatisfac-
tory and advocated regional planning !
meet specific environmental goals in order
to be more effective and to save billions 01
dollars. Jensen3T described fragmented,
programs, diffuse national leadership, an;
poor state/federal communications as det-
rimental to water quality management and
advocated closer coordination of water
quality control groups with both water:
quantity management and with non-water
environmental programs. With a mathe-
matical model for assessing the water sup-
ply alternative for Salt Lake County, Utah.
Bishop et aZ.3S produced a scheme that]
specified optimal schedules for expansion of;
wastewater treatment plants as part of thej
total water resources management for the!
area.
Marsden et al.3a outlined the use of dis-
criminant analysis in screening waste treat-
ment plant cost data to identify plants thai
are cither exceptionally costly or excep-
tionally cost effective and for analyzing the
economic advantage of large-scale regional
waste treatment plants. Hollman et alS'
analyzed factors contributing to the cost of
managing municipal water systems and to
identified cost variables that particularlv
improve management cost effectiveness.
Hanke et al.tl analyzed the alternatives
and the Water Resources Council recom-i
mendations for dealing with inflation in:
economic analysis and then recommended
the use of real prices adjusted as necessarv
for gross changes in relative values and of
a real opportunity cost discount rate of
approximately ten percent. Whipple *2 re-i
viewed alternative approaches to determin-
ing a discount rate for planning government
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projects and concluded that there is no
^asis for using the relatively high returns
Stained by investment in private industry,
'hat discount rates based on federal bor-
•Qwing may be too high during periods of
rnpid inflation, and that a discount rate of
ive percent is reasonable. Miller and
Erickson's " examination of the effect of
High interest rate and such water quality
parameters as TS, ss, COD, and Cl~ on the
design of the least cost urban drainage sys-
'em with primary and secondary treatment
plants showed that the optimum design is
not sensitive to the water quality param-
eters but that open ditch collectors were
preferred at high and pipe collectors at low
discount rates. Optimum holding pond
size was little affected by any of the pa-
rameters.
Swan** generated continued discussion
by stating that, in terms of the Coase The-
orem, a Pareto optimum can be reached
by bargaining between polluters and those
;hey affect if the property rights of both
ire well defined. Buchanan and Tullock "
presented a theory of external control that
explains the preference of administrators
for direct pollution control, when most eco-
nomic analyses show penalty taxes are
more effective. Ferrar et al.4" collected
data on New York City's use of financial in-
centives to promote environmentally desir-
able fuels. The data showed how the legal
"principle of fairness," requiring uniform
treatment of all polluters, effectively pro-
hibited the establishment of an optimal
effluent charge. Slater" discussed how
marginal losses may decrease rather than
increase with increased pollution, how in
this situation optimal pollution control may
be impossible to achieve by means of taxes
or other economic incentives, and how
regulatory measures may therefore become
essential.
Tulkens and Schoumaker48 created a
pure exchange economy with two private
commodities and one collective externality
and devised a rule for adjusting an efflu-
ent charge to achieve an optimum. Bund-
gaard-Nielsen and Hwang" used linear
programming to show how some levels of
effluent charges can increase production
LITERATURE REVIEW
costs and consumer prices without improv-
ing environmental quality. In addressing
the alternatives for centrally reg\ilating in-
dividual behavior in terms of group inter-
ests, McManus 50 described how the use of
price incentives involves costs in measuring
what rights are bought and in enforcing
bargains that may cost more than regula-
tory programs.
Hyden et al." simulated the mis-alloca-
tion of waste discharge levels that results
when conditions change after an effluent
standard or charge is established as a
basin-wide economic optimum. Kraus and
Mohring52 modeled the use of taxes for
pollution control and concluded that se-
quentially adjusted taxes on both polluters
and victims of pollution are required to
achieve optimal waste management. For-
sund 53 modeled pollution control in a dy-
namic setting where environmental harm
depends on previous as well as current
waste discharges; he compared the infor-
mation requirements and advantages of
effluent charge and direct regulation sys-
tems in this situation.
Podolick5* described the sewer-use
charge systems being used in response to
PL 92-500 guidelines. The systems in-
clude a base charge proportional to the
contribution that normal domestic waste-
water would make to treatment plant load-
ing plus an industrial surcharge based on
quarterly adjusted estimates of the addi-
tional cost required to treat more potent
industrial wastes. Marshall and Ruegg 5r>
found in evaluating current federal cost
sharing practices that more efficient pollu-
tion abatement would result if the same
cost sharing percentages applied to all
abatement techniques and cost categories.
Two National Bureau of Standards econo-
mists 56 concluded that the EPA construc-
tion grant program encourages capital in-
tensive treatment technologies at the
expense of technologies involving high
labor costs and favors industrialized com-
munities over residential communities.
Smith 5T developed a simple model for
showing how effluent charges levied on in-
dustrial residuals to reduce production ex-
ternalities will induce a production tech-
-Vol. 48, No. 6, June 1976 1651
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LITERATURE REVIEW
nology that improves efficiency evaluation
by reducing the nonconvexity of the pro-
duction relationship. Wenders38 derived
relationships that show that the incentive to
improve pollution control is greater if pol-
lution taxes are used than if emission stan-
dards or subsidies are used; emission stan-
dards are unlikely to be effective instru-
ments for inducing improved pollution con-
trol unless the pollution control board
promises not to raise its standards after an
improved technology is adopted.
McKean and Ericson59 viewed water
quality planning in the context of two equi-
librium points: the traditional equilibrium
where marginal benefits equal marginal
cost; and an equilibrium between the ten-
dency of high water quality in recreation
areas to attract population and for that
population to create pollution that reduces
water quality. Projects should consider the
second effect as well as the first; if high
water quality is to be achieved, taxation or
zoning policies for population control may
be required. Nicolson and Mace °° ap-
proached quantification of the relationship
between water quality and recreation use
by interviewing 240 visitors to Minnesota
state parks in conjunction with a program
of water quality sampling and laboratory
analysis and recommended that water
quality control agencies include esthetic
degradation to shorelines as an indicator of
water quality for recreation purposes. Rabe
and Hudsonai employed multiple regres-
sion on Maryland data to examine the effect
of sewer service on urban development pat-
terns and concluded that, even though their
relationship is not well defined, there is a
significant relationship between legal ser-
vice areas and land development rates.
DowningS2 stated three propositions for ap-
plying marginal cost pricing of water and
sewer services and discussed how such
pricing could be better used to guide urban
development patterns based on the exam-
ples of Knoxville, Tenn., Lexington, Ky.,
and Greensboro, N. C. Dornbusch and
Falcke 83 developed a method for forecast-
ing the effects of water quality enhance-
ment on residential property values in
terms of distance from the water's edge, a
quantitative Perceived Water Qualiu h.
de\ developed specially for this pmp.M
public access, and other factors. \\ t u.
berger °4 used the dual solution to a lm< ..
programming model to show how cmn...,
mental standards can be implemented .::,
ciently by using a system of polluti- .
licenses, performance standards, and /.,:,
ing restrictions.
Kneese "•'• analyzed the salinity prohU;..
in the Colorado River in Mexico as a cl.tv..
upstream-downstream conflict that is piu
ducing an uneconomical approach to rediu
ing salinity in the Mexicali Valley, Mas
kusen"" developed an economic m;
to derive an optimal pollution tax strut tun
under these conditions and to analyze tin
dependence and interaction between tl.t
two countries. It was concluded that u>
operative imposition of national taxes \\ .1',
not achieve Pareto efficiency without .>
transfer payment. Martin67 compiled fi*
ures showing how improved water manage
ment on the farm can control Color-ul
River salinity at a cost much less than tlu:
of the proposed desalting plant. Youns: •:
al.'a examined the legal and institutunu;
setting of the present water pollution UM.
trol program in western Colorado and i -
timated the economic value of water i,,.
waste dilution and the economic imp.ut.
of programs to control saline irrigation u
turn flows. Sekiguchi69 analyzed the u
lationship between pollution levels .ui.i
economic activity in various regions <>t
Japan; he compared impacts of pollution
controls or price rises in the iron and steel
petroleum, and electric power industries M,
Japan and the U. S. and recommended th.it
international environmental regulation in-
based on environmental rather than on pol
lution discharge standards.
Ciccone et al."° developed a model for
determining the least cost combination of
raw water sources and renovated waste-
waters ft u- a municipality using a dual po-
table-nonpotable water distribution system
Carlson and Young T1 used statistical co>t
and demand functions and data collected
from 125 southern cities to analyze the
1652 Journal WPCF-
2-49
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'inomic factors affecting adoption of land
ttment of municipal wastewater; they
j 'ind that federal subsidies were the most
portant single factor working against
-•al adoption of land treatment. Also de-
' • ed were elasticities indicating rates at
1 Hich adoption increases with the price of
•Cation water, the strictness of allowable
"ram effluent levels, smaller waste vol-
•ncs, and dried climate. Markland et al.~-
veloped a large-scale mixed integer pro-
.•.tmming model that was useful in per-
nning benefit-cost analyses for comparing
'tential land disposal wastewater treat-
"nt sites. Christensen73 examined the
>nomic and institutional issues involved
land acquisition for and the management
1 land treatment systems in the context of
• e goals pursued by farm managers.
Singleton et al.7* employed a linear eco-
unic model of a representative chlor-alkali
'.mt to quantify the effects of water qual-
••> standards restricting waste discharge of
\ hardness, and heat on the cost of chlo-
••ne and caustic production; they found
-ist increases ranging up to 12.1 percent
• >r zero discharge of TS from a mercury
eil plant. Stone et al.~'J employed a simi-
ir model to ethylene production for plas-
•sc and synthetic fiber and found that zero
lischarge could be achieved at an increase
if 7.0 percent in production cost and at
marginal treatment costs/kg of $0.88 for
'S and $1.80 for oil. linger and Woolver-
'nn ;ii used discounted cash flow analysis to
examine the economic impact of proposed
Affluent" guidelines on the grain milling in-
dustry; they predicted that it would be
minima] because most of these plants al-
ready discharge in municipal systems that
provide adequate treatment. Wissman et
al" assessed the economic impact of pro-
posed effluent guidelines on the apple, cit-
rus, and potato processing industries and
predicted that products such as canned
citrus juice and apple sauce will be se-
verely affected.
Seitz et al.7" found that stream sedimen-
tation could be substantially reduced by
shifting to more intensive cropping patterns /
in agricultural areas and examined regula-
tory programs, educational efforts, and eco-
LlTEHATURE REVIEW
nomic incentives to farmers to practice
erosion control. Heady and Nicol79 em-
ployed their model of the agricultural econ-
omy in the U. S. to examine the effects of
soil loss controls on sediment reduction as
well as on transport of N and P into
streams; they also quantified the nation-
wide and regional soil loss reductions that
could be achieved with various soil loss
standards per acre, the resulting changes
in tillage practices by region, and produc-
tion shifts among regions, and found that
a standard that would reduce soil loss by a
factor of 3.5 would increase commodity
prices by amounts ranging from none for
milk to 15 percent for soybeans. Barker
and Nelson s" evaluated the effects of agri-
cultural hind use patterns and small towns
on water quality in the Sheyenne Basin in
North Dakota and the perceptions and at-
titudes of the populace toward the prob-
lem. Everett and MillerS1 used linear
programming and input-output models to
evaluate the effects soil erosion control has
on the economic rate of timber harvesting
anH found that minimizing soil loss is not
necessarily the best policy for the economy.
Rickert et al.s- presented a framework for
collecting data on the relationship between
economic activity in the Willamette River
basin and river water quality. Nielsen et
al.S3 presented the iterative approach used
in Denmark for minimizing the cost of a
water quality sampling program.
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3. Dallaire, G., "U. S. Water Clean-up Program
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5. Chase Econometric Asso., "The Macroeco-
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(i. "Draft Economic Impact Assessment for the 22.
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15. Hill, W. H., and Ortolano, I., "NEPA's In-
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16. Randolph, ]., and Ortolano, L., "NEPA's In-
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17. Ortolano, L., "Water Resources Decision Mak-
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18. Nash, ~C., "An Evaluation of Cost-Benefit 33.
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19. Priscoli, J. D., "Citizen Advisory Groups and
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20. Richerson, P., and Johnston, R., "Environ- 35.
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/our. Hijdraul. Div., Proc. Amer. Soc. Civil
Engr., 101,259 (1975).
21. Core, P, H., et al, "A Sociological Approach 36.
to the Problem of Water Pollution." Growth
and Change, 6, 17 (1975).
Krause, K. S., "Objectives ot \V,itt . i.°
Planning." Jour. Hijdraul. Dit , I'* •
Soc. CiiAl Knur., 101, 471 (1975
Loucks, D. P , 'Conflict and Chou. i
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Indicators. Methodological I )< > . '
and Empirical Test." The Tedum i. l
imttee of tin- Water Resource-. Iv
Centers ot the Thirteen West, in -••
Utah Water Res. Lab., Utah Stau '
Logan ( 1974)
Haunt's, Y. Y., ft al., "Multiobjectue t>,
zation in Water Resources Ssst. ia-
scvier .Scientific Pub, Co., An,si
( 1975).
Haimes, Y. Y. and Hall, W. A., "Aiuh-
Multiple Objectives in Water Oiui
/our. llydratil. Div., Proc. Amur. S«, i
Engr., 101, 387 (1975).
Cohon, J. L., and Marks, D. H., "A H
and Evaluation of Multiobjectne- I1:, .
ming Techni(iues." Water Rvsourin :
11, 208 (1975).
Taylor, B. W., HI, et al., "Approaches t.i VI
tiobjective Planning in Water RCSOIIKI i
ects." Water Resources Bull., 11
( 1975).
Mercer, L. J., and Morgan, W. D., "E\.ii .,•
of a Probability Approach to V'ni. :i .
in Benefit-Cost Analysis." Water H. v
Ctr., Univ. of California, Davis i U)T"
Bovet, E. D., "Evaluation of Quaht\ 1'.
eters in Water Resource Planning i \ •»•
of-the-Art Survey of the Economus i,t \
ter Quality)." U. S. Army Enur. Ii,-i
Water Resources, Fort BeKoir, \'a ',
Truett, J. B., ct al., "Development ,.t \\
Quality Management Indices." U a'.. •
vouiw.s Bull., 11, 436 ( 1975).
Cuml)erland, J. H.. and Strain, B N i .•
of Economic Development Upon \\ it.
sources (An Interindustry Appiu.,, :.
Modeling Economic-Environmental
terns)'' Bur. of Bus. and Econ. IU_i M
land Univ., College Park (1974).
Lawrence, C. H., "Estimating Indirect t
of Urban Water Use." /our. Environ i •
Div., Proc. Amer. Soc. Civil Engr., UU
(1975).
Angotti, T. R., "Planning for Regional V.,
Water Systems." Growth and Chun^
36 (1975).
Bartal, K. A., and Gutierrez, L. V , ]r. ' (
prehensive Water Quality Man.i«i ,
Planning." /our. Hijdraul. Div., Proc \
Soc. Cioil Engr., 101, 371 (1975).
Whipple, W., Jr., "Water Quality PLan
for the Delaware Estuary." Wafer
sources Bull., 11, 300 (1975).
1654 Journal WPCF-
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53.
54.
Jensen, E. T., "Problems in Integrating Wa-
ter Programs." Jour. Hi/tlraul. Div., Proc.
Amer. Soc. Civil Engr., 101, 467 (1975).
^Bishop, A. B., "Economic Assessment of an
Activity Analysis Model for Water Supply
Planning." Water Resources Res., 11, 783
(1975).
Marsden, J. R., et al., "The Large-Scale Re-
gional Plant Hypothesis: Discriminant Anal-
ysis." Water Resources Res., 11, 1013
(1975).
Hollman, K. W., et al., "Methods to Facilitate
Managerial Effectiveness in Municipal Wa-
ter Systems." Water Resources Res. Inst,
Mississippi State Univ., Starkville (1975).
Hanke, S. H., et al., "Project Evaluation Dur-
ing Inflation." Water Resources Res., 11,,-
511 (1975).
Whipple, VV.fl, Jr., "Principles of Determining
a Social Discount Rate." Water Resources
Bull, 11, 811 (1975).
Miller, W. L., and Erickson, S. P., "The Im-
pact of High Interest Rates on Optimum
Multiple Objective Design of Surface Runoff
Urban Drainage Systems." Water Resources
Bull., 11, 49 (1975).
Swan, P. L., "The Coarse Theorem and 'Se-
quential' Pareto Optimality." The Econ.
Record (Austl.), 51, 268 (1975).
Buchanan, J. M., and Tullock, G., "Polluters'
Profits and Political Response: Direct Con-
trols Versus Taxes." The Amer. Econ. Re-
vieio, 55, 139 (1975).
Ferrar, T. A., et al., "Effluent Charges and Po-
litical Realities—A Qualification." Jour. En-
viron. Systems, 5, 97 (1975).
Stater, M., "The Quality of Life and the Shape
of Marginal Loss Curves." The Economic
Jour. (G. B.), 85, 864 (1975).
Tulkens, H., and Schoumaker, F., "Stability
Analysis of an Effluent Charge and the 'Pol-
luters Pav' Principle." Jour, of Public Eco-
nomics ( Neth.), 4, 215 ( 1975).
Bundgaard-Nielson, M., and Hwang, C. L.,
"On Taxation and Firms Choice of Waste
Water Treatment Technology." Water Re-
sources Bull.. 11, 805 ( 1975).
McManus, J. C., "The Costs of Alternative
Economic Organizations." Can. Jour. Econ.,
8, 334 (1975). /
Ilvden, J. W.. et al., "Simulation of Water/
Quality Management Policies " Jour. En-
viron. £ngr. Div., Proc. Amer. Soc. Civil
Fns,r., 101, 623 (1975).
Kram, M., and Mohring, H., "The Role of '
Pollutee Taxes in Externality Problems."
Economica (G. B.), 42. 171 (1975).
Forsnng, F. R., "The Polluter P;us Principle
and Transitional Period Measures in a Dy-
namic Setting." The Swed. Jour, of Econ.,
77, 56 (1975).
Podolick, P. A., "An Equitable Sewer Use
Charge System." Pub. U'orfcs. 106, 9!
(1975).
LITERATURE REVIEW
55. Marshall, H. E., and Ruegg, R. T . "Analysis
of Cost Sharing Programs for Pollution
Abatement of Municipal Wastev uter." Nat.
Bur. of Srds.. U. S. Govt. Printing Office,
Washington, D. C. ( 1974).
56. "Cost Sharing to Help Clean Our Waterways."
U. S. National Bureau of Standards, Dimen-
sion* NBS, 58, 267 (1974).
57. Smith, V. K., "Detrimental Externalities, Non-
convexities and Technical Change." Jour.
of Public Economics (Neth.), 4, 289
(1975).
58. Wenders, J. T., "Methods of Pollution Control
and the Rate of Change in Pollution Abate-
ment Technology." Water Resources Res.,
11, .393 (1975).
59. McKean, J. R., and Ericson, R. K., "Quality of
Life and Environmental Social Overhead
Impact." Water Resources Res., 11, 789
(1975).
60. Nicolson, J. A., and Mace, A. C., Jr., "Water
Quality Perceptum. by Users: Can It be
Supplement Objective Water Quality Mea-
sures?" Water Resources Bull., 11, 1197
(1975).
61. Rabe, F. T., and Hudson, f F., "Highway and
Sewer Impacts on Urban Development."
Jour. Urban Plan. 6- Dev. Div., Proc. Amer.
Soc. Civil Engr., 101, 217 (1975).
62. Downing, D. A., "Sewer and Water Pricing
and Investment Policies to Implement Ur-
ban Growth Policy." Water Resources Bull.,
11, 345 (1975).
63. Dombusch, D. M., and Falcke, C. O, "A
Generic Methodology to Forecast Benefits
from Urban Water Resource Improvement
Projects." David M. Dornbusch and Co.,
San Francisco, Calif. (1971).
64. Werczberger, E.. "Urban Land-Use Planning
and Environmental Pollution." Environ. 751.
69. Sekiguchi, S., "Environmental Regulations jnd
Japan's Industry and International Trade."
Jap. Econ. Studies, 3, 4, 83 (1975).
70. Ciccone, V J., et al., "A Present Value-Unit
Cost Methodology for Evaluating Munici-
-Vol. 48, No. 6, June 1976 1035
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LITERATURE REVIEW
pal Wastewater Reclamation and Direct Re-
use." Water Resource;, Bull., 11, 21 (1975).
71. Carlson, C. A., and Young, C. E., "Factors Af-
fI/., ting Adoption of Land Treatment of
Municipal Waste Wattr." Water Resources
&•*., 11, 616 (1975).
72. Mainland, R. E., et d., "A Benefit-Cost Anal-
ysis of Alternative Land Disposal Waste
Water Methods in an Urban Environment."
School of Bus. Adm., Univ. of Missouri, St.
Louis (1974).
73. Chmtensen, L. A., "A P .imework for Evaluat-
ing Institutional ante Water." ]our.
Environ. Quality, 4, i-i5 i 1975).
74. Singleton, F. D., Ji., et al., "An Integrated
Power Process Model of Water Use and
Waste Water Treatment in Chlor-Alkali
Production." Water Resources Res., 11. 515
(1975).
75. Stone, J. C., et al., "An Integrated Power Pro-
cess Model for Ethylene Production." Wa-
ter Resources Res., 11, 810 (1975).
76. Unger, S. G., and Woolverton, M. W., "Eco-
nomic Analysis of Effluent Guidelines: Grain
Processing Segment of the Grain Mills In-
dustry." Development Planning and Re-
search Asso., Inc., Manhattan, Kan. (1975).
77. Wissman, D. ]., et al., "Economic Analysis of
Effluent Guidelines: Apple, Citrus and Po-
tato Processing Segments of the Canned and
Preserved Fruits and Vegetable Industry."
Development Planning and Research Asso.,
Inc., Manhattan, Kan. (1975).
78. Seitz, W. D., et al., "Evaluation of Agricul-
tural Policy Alternatives to Control Sedi-
mentation." Illinois Water Resources Ctr.,
Univ. of 111., Urbana-Champaign (1975).
79. Heady, E. O., and Nicol, K. J., "Models of
Land and Water Allocation to Improve En-
vironment and Water Quality Through Soil
Loss Controls." Water Resources Res., 11,
795 (1975).
80. Barker, W. T., and Nelson, W. C., "Lower
Sheyenne River Basin: Water, Land, Peo-
ple." Water Resources Res. Inst., North
Dakota St. Univ., Fargo, 1974.
81. Everett, H. W., II, and Miller, W. L., "Sec-
toral and Regional Economic Impact of Con-
trolling Nonpoint Pollution in Forested
Areas." Water Resources Res. Ctr., Purdue
Univ., W. Lafayette (1975).
82. Rickert, D. A., et al, "Methods and Data Re-
quirements for River-Quality Assessment."
Water Resources Bull, 11, 1013 (1975).
/
'/ 83. Nielsen, K. S., et al., "A Note on Cost-Effec-
tiveness in Data Acquisition in Water Qual-
ity Management." Water Resources Res.,
11, 357 (1975).
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Economics
L. D. James
Utah State University, Logan
The final report of the National Commission
on Water Quality 1 recommended a number of
"mid-course adjustments" so that the adminis-
tration of the Water Pollution Control Act of
1972 (PL 92-500) would restore the integrity
of the nation's waters. The recommendations,
formulated from a long series of studies, in-
cluded postponing certain requirements, in-
creasing administrative decentralization and
flexibility, and redefining goals to emphasize
the conservation and reuse of limited resources
rather than waste discharge elimination. The
Environmental Sciences sector of the National
Commission on Water Quality 2 sponsored 41
river basin studies, covering the entire nation,
to characterize present environmental condi-
tions and project biological, ecological, and
environmental benefits from effluent loading
reductions and water quality changes. In a
summary volume, Allen et al.3 outlined the
study methodology, projected impacts from
abatement of point source loadings, and sum-
marized the findings. A second volume pre-
sented such special topics as an evaluation of
water quality models, the state-of-the-art of
projecting ecological change, and a review of
existing water quality data systems.
A study by the Human Resources Planning
Institute * found that the primary and second-
ary economic impacts of the 1972 Act will
generate more jobs for middle-income white
males and reduce job opportunities for females,
older workers, and others in low-income cate-
gories. An analysis by the Public Research
Institute 5 of the effects of the Water Pollution
Control Act of 1972 on seven industries (iron
and steel, aluminum, copper, textiles, pulp and
paper, and leather tanning and red meat) with
high pollution abatement costs predicted con-
sequent increased import penetrations of these
industries of 1.5 to 6 percent. The total effect
on domestic industry was expected to be small
because the volume of trade was small com-
pared to domestic production. An analysis of
the Act's effects on the dairy industry by De-
velopment Planning and Research Associates "
indicated that the 1983 requirements will re-
duce the net income of large plants by 30 per-
cent and smaller plants by 50 percent. Ap-
proximately 1 plant in 18 will be forced to
close, and prices will increase by 1.4 percent.
An analysis 7 on the effects on the fruit and
vegetable processing industry found that the
greatest price increases (up to about 0.3 per-
cent) will be required by smaller plants in the
corn, tomato, and sauerkraut sectors and that
the greatest number of plant closures because
of difficulty in paying required pretreatment
costs will occur among Florida citrus plants and
potato dehydrating plants in the Pacific North-
west. The same firm s also compared costs for
17 technologies for pollution control from beef,
turkey, dairy, and hog feedlots and estimated
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that the greatest expenditure will be required
for hog lots and that the greatest price impact
(about 1 percent) will be on turkey and
dairy lots. An estimated 37 000 to 77 000 lots
will be forced to close by 1977.
Lusky 9 used a model developed for allocat-
ing resources among original production, pro-
duction of recycled goods, and waste disposal
to show how in cases, like water, where refuse
markets are not forthcoming that governmental
intervention is necessary for pollution control.
Macauley and Yandle10 noted a consistent
record of failure for managing water quality
by regulation and government expenditure and
recommended trying a system wherein stream
responsibility (like land ownership) is sold to
the highest bidder and the proceeds are used
to finance public programs. Marshall and
Ruegg's analysis " of the current practice of
equal division of user fees collected from in-
dustrial waste discharges between the munici-
pality and the federal government concluded
that the policy was causing significant efficiency
distortions that could be eliminated by return-
ing all collected fees to the U. S. Treasury.
McMillan 12 argued that separate environ-
mental authorities for water, air, and land
pollution control can more effectively protect
the public interest than can a single overall
agency because the multijurisdictional arrange-
ment reduces the adverse effects of the vote
trading that occurs within a single governing
body. Tomasini " presented a concept of fair-
ness (illustrated by numerical example) for
use in allocating pollution loadings among
waste dischargers. Levi and Beattie14 de-
scribed a case in which a Texas court had
awarded damages equalling the loss caused to
a rancher by upstream pollution and cited this
liability for inadvertent downstream pollution
damages as a departure from past court rulings
and a positive step toward economic equity.
Williams and Rucks 15 outlined the financial
dilemma placed on municipalities required to
provide waste treatment facilities costing an
average of $ 1500 per person and advocated
that the situation in each city be studied in-
dividually to estimate pollution control costs
and identify funding sources and financial im-
pacts. Boyd et a/.18 reviewed the nutrient
loading of the Missouri River near Kansas City
in the context of available treatment methods
and found that complete nutrient removal at
wastewater treatment facilities would be a
waste of money.
Among the new books published, Quarles 1T
made a strong case for a greater pollution con-
trol effort, and Caldwellia described the role
citizens can take to enhance the environment.
Hammer la assessed the social implications of
abatement alternatives while Dimento20 an-
alyzed the problems in achieving the behavioral
changes required for a higher quality environ-
ment. Andrews J1 examined the effectiveness
of the National Environmental Policy Act in
achieving these changes. Finally, Kneese -2
outlined the role of economics in choosing
among environmental management alternatives
and in providing incentives to achieve desired
goals.
Stephens 23 used a general neoclassical model
of growth and pollution to show how technical
progress can provide exponential growth of per
capita income within the context of improving
environmental quality. To do so, the marginal
productivities of new technology to limit waste
discharge and to augment environmental ab-
sorptive capacity should be equalized. Lip-
nowski •* employed input-output analysis to
gauge the potential for economic growth in
the presence of a requirement for complete
environmental preservation and to estimate the
rate of profit an industry operating without any
environmental restrictions would have to have
for profitable operation to continue if environ-
mental controls were imposed. Uri's analysis 2S
of the effects of environmental quality stan-
dards on the power generating industry showed
an incentive toward larger investment in new
generating capacity in part caused by pre-
mature retirement of existing capacity.
Eidem 26 described the role of the Swedish
Water and Air Pollution Research Laboratory
(IVL) in water pollution control in Sweden.
Swedish industry will have to invest annually
an amount equal to about 2 percent of the
value of goods manufactured for pollution con-
trol, but twice that investment would be re-
quired to meet all of society's demands.
Whipple'" proposed that the U. S. change a
current water pollution control policy that re-
quires treatment at all cost and uniform quality
standards in order to pursue basic environ-
mental quality objectives more effectively.
Three needed revisions would be to refocus on
achievable goals, to coordinate river water
quality management with flow regulation, and
to make real use of planning results. Whipple
and Hufschmidt28 reported workshop recom-
mendations for priority emphasis in water
quality control research on evaluating die costs
of environmental and social impacts, on defin-
ing additional control alternatives so as to
broaden the base of those considered, and on
1538 Journal WPCF
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Literature Review
improving the efficiency of water quality con-
trol institutions.
Friesema and Culhane's analysis2" of the
effects of the National Environmental Policy
Act of 1969 on water resources planning noted
an increasing emphasis on public participation,
staff hiring of individuals from a broader range
of professional backgrounds, and greater effort
to ameliorate adverse environmental impacts.
Wengert30 used an analysis of the growing
pressures for public participation in resource
management to begin an effort to develop a
theory of the public participation process that
is harmonious with both democratic ideals and
pragmatic experience. Tideman and Tullock 31
described a process of offering each individual
a chance to change the outcome that would
occur without his vote by paying a special
charge set equal to the net effect on others of
his vote as a mechanism for motivating in-
dividuals to reveal their true preferences for
public goods.
Lienesch and Emison 32 reviewed the area-
wide water quality planning program underway
under Section 208, PL 92-500, and despite en-
countered problems in resolving conflicts
among interest groups, achieving effective in-
stitutional arrangements, and identifying cost
effective approaches concluded that the high-
lighting of issues for public discussion resulting
within the planning process is itself an im-
portant step toward improved water quality
management. Grantham and Bailey33 de-
scribed how water quality plans were being
formulated to meet federal and state legal re-
quirements in the California Water Quality
Control Planning Basins.
Bundgaard-Nielsen and Hwang's review34
of the literature on regional water quality
management classified available planning
models according to whether their orientation
was toward centralized planning, diffuse deci-
sion making, or multiple objectives. Mc-
Namara35 developed and illustrated through
numerical example a geometric nonlinear pro-
gramming model for simultaneous consideration
of waste treatment processes, bypass piping,
flow regulation, and artificial aeration in de-
termining the least-cost water quality manage-
ment program for the upper Hudson River.
Bovet38 synthesized several earlier reports in
developing planning guidelines for water qual-
ity management through optimization balanc-
ing the cost of enhancement against benefit.
The economic efficiency of water reuse and
acid mine drainage control were also discussed.
Rohrlich 3T contributed an extended descrip-
tion of how economic and social factors can be
integrated in environmental management. Gum
et al.38 illustrated the Techcom system for
weighting social preferences for esthetics, eco-
nomics, and recreation from answers to a mail
questionnaire in Arizona and New Mexico.
Use of the Metfessel general allocation test
provided usable information for comprehensive
evaluation of natural resource management
policies. Phillips and DeFilippi39 developed
a method for comparing environmental impacts
of alternative wastewater management systems
that tabulates environmental impacts with re-
spect to identified objectives and collapses the
resulting matrix into a numerical impact
measure,
Hipel et al.*0 presented metagame theory as
a nonquantitative or descriptive approach for
considering information that cannot readily be
expressed in quantitative form together with
quantitative data to evaluate conflict situations,
such as international pollution disputes, in
which decision-making does not conform to the
classical assumption of rational behavior. Hipel
et al.*1 also illustrated metagame analysis as a
means for identifying possible political solutions
for controlling water pollution from a steel mill.
Ragade et a/.*2 demonstrated how stable com-
promise possibilities between diverse interest
groups can be defined by having each group
assign values to benefits and costs from their
viewpoint and by applying meta rationality
concepts to the resulting pseudo-boolean
functions.
Van Praag and Linthorst43 used returned
questionnaires from responsible municipal
officials in 550 of 842 Dutch communities to
derive municipal welfare functions for each
one. Public works expenditures per capita
were quantified as decreasing with community
size, reaching a point where diseconomies of
scale begin to predominate, and then increasing
for still larger communities at an elasticity with
respect to inhabitants of 1.4. Trigg et al.**
used Winnipeg attitude survey data to confirm
the hypothesis that individuals who believe that
their rewards depend on their own abilities
were better informed on pollution problems
than are other people.
Brill et al." illustrated for the Delaware
Estuary how application of the equity criteria
that equals should be treated equally and that
non-equals should be treated differently results
in a much lower pollution control cost than
does a program of uniform treatment standards
for each pollutant and concluded that even
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application of equity criteria with imperfect
information can lead to policy-improving in-
sights. Brumm and Dick46 reviewed current
Federal Water Pollution Control policy and
concluded that regulatory programs, bargain-
ing strategies, and effluent changes alike re-
quire an almost impossibly expensive research
program to obtain the information needed for
optimal design and that a system of setting
standards and raising the charges as necessary
to achieve them is overall much more cost-
efficient. Herzog " assessed the relative effi-
ciency and equity for the Patuxent River
(Maryland) of charges set to achieve a water
quality standard at minimum cost when both
plant treatment costs and residual transfer costs
are known, when only the transfer costs are
known, and when neither are known (an equal
per unit charge to all discharges). He found
significant efficiency gain from information
availability but no impressive real resource cost
savings. Dick ** synthesized from the litera-
ture critical to the Coase theorem that bilateral
bargaining in a voluntary, frictionless setting
produces optimality only by accident. Because
of the facts that the placement of liability
affects resource allocation and that liability
assigned by voluntary bargaining cannot be
expected to produce optimal solutions to ex-
ternality problems, such nonvoluntary ap-
proaches as zoning, standards, prohibitions, or
taxes are required to achieve optimality.
Mathur *9 showed how a spatially variable
pollution tax charged to a firm that may re-
spond either by reducing its waste disposal or
moving to another location subject to less tax
will not necessarily encourage the dispersal of
industries having alternative abatement tech-
nologies from highly polluted areas.
Bundgaard-Nielsen's analysis 50 of how the
influences of available technology and eco-
nomic incentives interact in a firm's wastewater
treatment investment decisions concluded that
subsidy will induce new investment when the
subsidy offered exceeds the cost less the ac-
cruing savings divided by the interest rate.
DeWees and Sims " explained why subsidies
paid to reduce emissions are not symmetrical
to effluent charges as instruments for con-
trolling pollution because of technical problems
in establishing a base emission at which the
subsidy begins, effects caused by firm entry and
exit from the industry, and market distortions
caused by unavoidable subsidy discontinuities.
Any financial relief required to help firms con-
trol emission should be in the form of lump
sum payments based on past production.
Smith " developed a simple model to demon-
strate that efficient resource allocation in the
presence of product market distortions and
pollution externalities requires both an output
subsidy and effluent charges. More generally,
the number of policy instruments should at
least equal the number of imperfections to be
corrected.
Orr 53 described how, despite the literature
on the difficulties in achieving economic effi-
ciency through user charges, experience has
shown (largely because of robustness in spite
of incomplete information) charges to be effec-
tive, their effectiveness to increase with time,
and their impact to have not been excessively
disruptive. Emphasis was placed on the im-
portance of reckoning effectiveness in terms of
innovative incentives as well as the more tradi-
tional allocation efficiency. Holtermann5*
showed that when externalities cannot be di-
rectly taxed, Pareto optimality can still be
achieved by taxing outputs whose production
produced the externality, or by taxing pro-
ducers of inputs whose use in the production
process generates the externality. Compensa-
tion paid to the victims of the externality does
not affect Pareto optimality unless the victims
can influence the compensation rates. Through
a survey of 177 South Carolina municipalities,
Mulkey and Stepp " found that the prevailing
practices of flat rate or water bill percentage
sewer charges are unlikely to satisfy the EPA
criterion of charging proportional to treatment
cost and recommended further study to formu-
late a charging vehicle that can satisfy this
equity criterion without requiring costly in-
strumentation.
Ehler et al.i& identified through a residuals
management model the points in the residuals
gfneration and discharge process at which
physical action, laws or regulations, and better
institutional arrangements can be effectively
used to reduce adverse environmental effects.
From the simulated consequences of water
quality management through effluent charges,
effluent standards, and effluent treatment sub-
sidies, Campbell " demonstrated that the re-
sulting income distributional effects depend on
both the policy instrument and the level of the
jurisdiction administering it, and therefore ad-
vocated individual design of an appropriate
policy instrument for each local situation.
Keith et al.™ were not able to establish a causal
relationship between water quality controls and
income distribution by fitting a beta distribu-
tion function to SMSA data and testing the
significance of changes. Edwards and Lang-
1540 Journal WPCF
2-57
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ham 58 used a model with a nonlinear objective
function and linear environmental constraints
on externalities not quantifiable in monetary
terms to estimate that a 50 percent reduction
in usage of chlorinated hydrocarbons would
reduce welfare, estimated as consumers surplus
plus producers surplus, by about 1 percent
and that elimination of their usage would re-
duce welfare by about 3 percent.
Asch and Seneca's examination80 of the
conflict between the adverse welfare impact of
monopoly and the environmental benefit of
internalizing externalities within a monopoly
for the case of the automobile industry showed
how undesirable consequences will result with-
out coordination between environmental and
antitrust policies, with the optimal balance
depending on the monopolist's extra profit
margin and marginal cost the externality in-
flicts on others. Cowing 6X employed a two-
input, two-output process model to demonstrate
how effluent charges or a polluting monopoly
already constrained by rate-of-return regulation
may have either a favorable or an adverse
social impact. He argued that the policy for
dealing with each such monopoly should be
specifically designed from detailed knowledge
of its production process and the effects of its
externalities on others.
Peskin 82 examined four alternatives for ad-
justing estimates of the GNP for pollution
effects and found an adjustment equal to the
net value of environmental assets to be best for
environmental management purposes, the sub-
traction of residual damage to provide the best
welfare measure, the addition of the net value
of environmental asset services to provide the
best index of total production, and no adjust-
ment at all to provide the best index of human
productive services. Sandier and Smith 63 ap-
plied a "reference group" concept to show how
Pareto efficiency, maximization of each in-
dividual's utility summed over individuals and
time, in the allocation of environmental re-
sources over time or among generations re-
quires that each person's incremental benefits
from a public good be treated equally, regard-
less of the time they receive the benefits, rather
than be discounted at a constant rate for all
individuals and time periods. White64 ob-
served that economists have a long established
taxonomy for analyzing market failure but have
never analyzed nonmarket failure systemati-
cally. The three principal nonmarket failures
in the context of water pollution control were
a failure to properly recognize the limitations
of governmental structure in assigning func-
tional responsibility, a failure to act in ways
that equitably distribute the benefits, and a
failure to obtain and use the proper in-
formation.
Dworsky et aJ.65 reported the recommenda-
tions of a workshop that examined the inter-
action between water quality and land use
planning for the purpose of proposing policy
changes to enhance conflict resolution and
management efficiency. Specific recommenda-
tions vvere made in the areas of program evalu-
ation, investment strategies, and institutional
arrangements. Bammi et al.M described ap-
plication of a model siting urban land develop-
ment to minimize aggregate adverse environ-
mental impact (including water pollution) to
suburban Chicago. Black, Crow, and Eids-
ness, Inc.87 found that a suitable technology
for abating urban storm water pollution is yet
to be developed and that nationwide abatement
to a level equivalent to secondary treatment
would cost approximately 160 billion dollars.
Walter 8S edited a volume of 15 papers on
applications of economics to international is-
sues in environmental management. Individual
papers reached such conclusions that large
countries applying pollution control measures
unilaterally can expect an improvement in the
balance of trade that will help pay for the
system and that special regulation of multi-
national corporations is unnecessary unless the
adverse environmental consequences physi-
cally cross international borders. Pethig " ap-
plied a two-sector general equilibrium model
to international trade among nations with
potentially varying environmental policy to
derive five theorems relating to the effects of
trade on the environment in each country.
Differences in national environmental policies
were found to not generally imply differences
in national environmental qualities.
Dornbusch et al.~9 concluded that the effect
of water pollution abatement on property
values depends on lay perceptions of conse-
quences for wildlife support, recreational op-
portunity, and esthetics. An analysis of 17
sites showed greater effects on lakes than on
streams and on larger bodies of water than on
smaller. Klee 71 presented an additive utility
model for setting priorities based on environ-
mental threat for dealing with waste discharges
and requiring selection of criteria, measurement
of parameters, assignment of ratings, and de-
termination and combination of values.
Teniere-Buchot ™ outlined the role that the
public has taken in development of the Fiench
water quality control and related water man-
June 1977 1541
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agement p ograms. Seifert and Lyons 7S de-
scribed four approaches under legislative
consideration for using economic incentives to
reduce wastewater discharges in West Ger-
many. The approaches are to establish sep-
arate river basin wastewuter management
associations with individual charging rules,
accumulate collected charges in financial re-
serves to pay for treatment facilities, allow
claims against the reserves when treatment
facilities are completed, and uniform charging
according to effluent harmfulness based on the
average cost of full biological treatment. John-
son and Brown 71 described the use of effluent
charges and abatement subsidies in water
quality management systems in France, Neth-
erlands, West Germany, Hungary, Sweden,
and England and concluded that since no
pollution abatement program in the world is
free of subsidies, the management choice may
be between a second best program with sub-
sidies and an ineffective program without them.
Laburn 75 reviewed the water quality control
and related water resources management efforts
of the Rand Water Board, Republic of South
Africa, over the last 70 years and discussed
such measures as separate disposal of mine
effluent, agricultural, industrial, and potable
use of wastewater effluent, dual water supply
systems, and piping high quality upstream
water to downstream areas.
After describing water pollution problems
found in large cities in tropical Africa, Onoker-
horaye 76 emphasized that developing countries
should not automatically adopt the standards of
the more advanced nations (a policy destined
to widespread failure) but should rather estab-
lish an administrative structure that can solve
priority problems with available financial re-
sources and expertise. GruverT? employed
a neoclassical growth model in an analysis of
the optimal division of investment between
pollution control capital and production capital
for less developed "countries that showed an
optimal sequence of first emphasizing expansion
of production capital (despite the increased
pollution) and subsequently emphasizing ex-
panding pollution control capital. In other
words, specialization is to be preferred over
balanced growth.
Singleton's evaluationT8 of water pollution
in the Soviet Union found that the USSR has
taken an exploitative development path similar
to what one would expect in any developing
nation regardless of its institutions. This
situation is a result of planning and adminis-
trative failures with a primary problem being
a lack of incentives to follow leadership prefer-
ences within the Soviet command system.
Stretton 7S compared the effectiveness of capi-
talistic and socialistic systems in environmental
management.
Adar and Griffin's analysis so of situations in
which uncertainty in the marginal control cost
and in the marginal pollution damage affects
the optimal choice from among pollution
charges, pollution standards, and the auction-
ing of pollution rights determined that uncer-
tainty in the damage function has no effect
but that cost uncertainty favors charges when
the damage function is price elastic and favors
standards when the damage function is price
inelastic. Rose's analysis8l of using federal
cost sharing to induce communities to adopt
socially optimal pollution abatement identified
such dilficulties as differences among communi-
ties in optimal practice, the cost-sharing prac-
tice being based on total rather than marginal
costs, and the inherent inflexibility of federal
funding. Harford 82 used a calculus of varia-
tions framework to delineate an optimal time
path for expanding a waste treatment program
and found that a policy of gradually strength-
ening standards over time can be justified when
the additional cost of adjusting more quickly
to higher standards exceeds the consequences
of pollution during the intermittent period.
Rose83 explained why a capital adjustment
model was superior to an acceleration invest-
ment equation for representing the cost of
pollution control equipment in input-output
modeling.
Briller8* illustrated discounted cash flow
analysis through application to surface mechan-
ical aerators in a municipal sewage treatment
plant as a method for minimizing the cost of
selected treatment equipment. The sensitivity
of the results to 12 independent variables was
tested and compared. Paulson85 described
how flexibility to control construction costs
decreases as a project progresses from design
to completion and how costs can be reduced
by drawing contractual arrangements to assure
that current construction and operation prac-
tices are considered in design. Wolpert8a
documented experiences relating to the siting
of obnoxious public facilities in urban areas in
an effort to promote more widespread use of
equity criteria in the decision making.
Leone8T reviewed the impact of environ-
mental control on industry. Wiley 88 recited
petroleum industry experiences of over one-
quarter of the capital investment now being
required for pollution control and recorn-
1542 Journal WPCF
2-59
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mended such policy changes for improving
equity as promoting correction at the waste
source and reducing excess capacity in facility
design. Amberg 89 reported that pollution con-
trol requirements were absorbing 30 percent of
the capital expenditures in the pulp and paper
industry and thereby draining capital that
would otherwise be available for technological
development. The major need was for change
from a regulatory approach that in many cases
actually adversely impacts the overall environ-
ment by blind adherence to uniform standards
to a system of site-specific controls to remedy
identified environmental problems. Black et
al.go found that federal water pollution control
requirements will require the typical carpet
mill to invest up to a million dollars and in-
crease the cost of carpet production by about
5 cents by 1983, but that the resulting price
increases are probably too small to reduce
sales. Shlottmann and Spore 91 showed with
a linear programming model of the coal indus-
try that reclamation regulations would reduce
Applachian coal surface mining by 7 percent
and increase underground mining by 4 percent
but emphasized that the environmental affects
of underground mining must be more care-
fully analyzed before concluding that this is a
wise policy.
Lee and Guntermann92 estimated down-
stream sediment damages for a wide variety of
farm practices within an Illinois watershed as
the sum of the costs of induced drainage ditch
dredging, reduced reservoir economic life, loss
of benefits because of an early end to reservoir
economic life, a sediment component of flood
damage, and a loss of recreation benefits.
Guntermann et aZ.9S found off-site sediment
damages to be far greater than on-site produc-
tivity losses, advocated a tax-subsidy incentive
approach to reducing sediment production and
noted a lack in technical knowledge about
sediment movement as a major obstacle to
establishing an effective program. Miller and
Gill9* used linear programming to show how
statewide soil loss standards in Indiana caused
a greater percentage and per acre decline in
farm income on small farms or in rolling
topography than on large farms or in flat
topography. Consideration of tax incentives
as possibly more equitable was recommended.
Pfeiffer and Whittlesey " analyzed the cost
effectiveness of taxing water use, reducing
water rights, and improving farm water man-
agement as alternatives for controlling the
quality of irrigation return flows and concluded
that policies relying on higher input costs
allocate resources mure efficiently while policies
relying on input quotas impose less cost on
agriculture. Kleinman 9S applied a linear pro-
gramming model to estimate farm profit in the
area served by the Imperial Irrigation District
as a function of irrigation water salinity con-
tent. Erlenkotter and Scherer "7 outlined alter-
native mathematical formulations for optimal
scheduling of salinity control projects on the
Colorado River.
Sims and Baumann9S used questions ad-
ministered to 22 state health officials and 98
consulting engineers to define professional bias
toward using renovated wastewater and con-
cluded that recognition of bias was as im-
portant as use of expertise in the formulation
of public policy on environmental issues. From
telephone interviews of 1 000 Southern Cali-
fornia households on attitudes toward 13 po-
tential wastewater reuses ranging from drinking
to toilet reuse, Stone " found that the public
favored nonbody contact reuses, favored body
contact reuses less strongly, and was divided
in attitude toward consumptive uses with the
primary negative factor being psychological
aversion. Industrial plant managers and public
water officials were less willing than the public
to accept reuse. Gates et al.100 studied the
reasons why people are unwilling to swim or
water ski on the Neches River (Texas) and
related these to measured water quality param-
eters. Young101 developed a computerized
model that compares the costs of solid-set
irrigation, center-pivot irrigation, border-strip
irrigation, ridge-and-furrow irrigation, overland
flow, and infiltration basins as land application
of wastewater technologies. The center pivot
system was found least expensive, and results
for different kinds of facilities of different sizes
were tabulated.
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Smith, V. K., "A Note on Effluent Charges
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Econ. Rev., 66, 2, 441 ( 1976).
Holtermann, S., "Alternative Tax Systems to
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nomics, 43, 1 (1976).
55. Mulkey, D., and Stepp, J., "A Review of
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lina." Water Resources Res. Inst., Clem-
son Univ., Clemson, S. C. (1975).
56. Ehler, C. N., et al, "Development of Re-
siduals Management Strategies." Environ.
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57. Campbell, H. F., "On the Income Distri-
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58. Keith, J. E., et al, "An Empirical Analysis
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fects of Water Quality Controls." PRRAE-
015, Utah Water Res. Lab., Utah State
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lic Welfare in Relation to Alternative Pesti-
cide Policies." Jour. Environ. Econ. and
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60. Asch, P., and Seneca, J. J., "Monopoly and
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Best Theory to the Automobile Industry."
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62. Peskin, H. M., "A National Accounting
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63. Sandier, T., and Smith, V. K., "Intertemporal
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64. White, R. D.. "The Anatomy of Nonmarket
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and Costs, Urban Runoff." National Com-
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69. Pethig, R., "Pollution, Welfare, and Environ-
mental Policy in the Theory of Compara-
tive Advantage." Jour. Environ. Econ. and
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71. Klee, A. ] , "Models for Evaluation of Haz-
ardous Wastes." Jour. Environ. Div., Proc.
Amer. Soc. Civil Engr., 102, 111 (1976).
72. Teniere-Buchot, P. F., "The Role of the Pub-
lic in Water Management Decisions in
France." Nat. Resources jour., 16, 159
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73. Seifert, K., and Lyons, T. C., "Water Qual-
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75. Laburn, R. J., "Some Aspects of Water Man-
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77. Gruver, G. W., "Optimal Investment in Pol-
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(Economics
J. C. Hite, Clemson University, S. C.
L. D. James
Utah Water Resources Laboratory, Logan
During 1978 there were no new trends in
the literature related to water quality eco-
nomics. For more than a decade, the main-
stream of this literature has focused on poten-
tial use of effluent charges or other similar
pseudomarket devices as an alternative to stan-
dards and regulations. Of the 39 articles,
reports, monographs, and texts reviewed here-
in, 10 concentrated almost exclusively on the
use of such market devices, while several others
subsumed their existence. Such work has
been especially attractive to theoretical econo-
mists, probably because jt has been relatively
easy to refine the theory to explicitly allow for
various types of effluent charges, and to do so
without becoming involved in time-consuming,
often frustrating, data-collection chores. En-
gineers and public agency administrators are
often critical of this work, however, contend-
ing that theoreticians fail to account for a
myriad of real-world, practical problems. Nev-
ertheless, while much of this work is not
directly applicable to specific management and
policy problems, a Irage amount of the litera-
ture dealing with use of effluent charges has
helped to clarify issues and has opened new
vistas for policy.
There were a number of articles in 1978
that advanced understanding of how effluent -
charges might be used effectively. Miedema l
used a partial-equilibrium, competitive-firm
model to test the effects of various types of
charges on materials balance accounts. Magat -
compared unit effluent charges and effluent
standards to determine potential effects of each
in inducing technological change and was un-
able to identify any qualitative differences in
the R&D expenditures of firms under the two
diUeiem M i.,-iii».',. h: concluded, liu\\ir\or,
that per uiut <. ;.luenr iLa^cs would have to
be continually increased to halt a growth m
effluents if one assumes advancing technology.
Moffit tit ul.J developed a methodology for
calculating eiiicii.-nt diluent taxes or charges
and demonstrated it;; practicality by applying
it to daily pollution problems in California's
Santa Ana Uivi r liaMn. Many of the critics
of ellluuit rli.irf/.i-s li.n/c focused their criticisms
on the pi.ictir.il piobk.'nis of the charges, 'j lie
work by Moiiit and his colleagues is especially
significant, thriefoio, because it showed that
a simple, eliiueiit i:illuent chaige scheme could
be developed from the same data base needed
to compute uniform, least-cost emissions stan-
dards. Harford ' also replied to the critics of
effluent charges in a paper examining the be-
havior of profit-maximizing firm wheie both
pollution standards and effluent taxes or
charges are not perfectly enforceable. He
demonstrated that increasing the level of pen-
alties for violating standards would reduce
pollution but that stricter enforcement would
not necessarily achieve that end. Increasing
effluent taxes or charges will reduce pollution.
but will also cause firms to use more resources
in evasion of the effluent tax. Since the mar-
ginal cost of effluent treatment rises with
higher and higher levels of pollutant removal
the potential rewaids of evasion also rise, and
thus, the marginal cost of enforcement: rises
as the control standards become more strin-
gent. The marginal social damages of addi-
tional pollution must be sufficient to justify
not only the marginal costs of physical removal
but also the marginal cost of enforcement.
Caitee and Williams ° also examined enforce-
ment problems, focusing specifically on pollu-
tion control in coastal areas
Some new twists on the use of effluent
charges were introduced in the literature in
1978. Gates and Strassmann " examined pos-
sible application of effluent charges to public
sector acti\ ities and showed, in certain plausi-
ble cases, that such charges can induce sig-
nificant reduction in pollution. Unger 7 inter-
jected spatial considerations into the analysis,
taking specific account of the direction of flow
of a stream and the juxtaposition of upstream
and downstream users of water. His analysis
provided a basis for determining optimal site-
specific discharges and the pricing scheme
necessary to achieve that optimum. Huszar
and Sabey"8 examined how quality levels in
the return flow from irrigation might be im-
proved by a pricing scheme. Trock et a/.'
1098 Journal VVPCF, Vol. 51, No. 6
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t iv> examined the phvsicv.l. e'-.>n«mi< . '<":al
ilid social measures that mmht I1"1 us,.'d to deal
,vith lalm'tv problems resulting from the r°.-
tuui flow from irrigation and recommended,
iniMig other measures, \vater trading among
users All of these studies have considerable
potential in the insights they provide thi'M?
charged \vith refining water pollution control
policy.
Yet \vhile policy makers are beginning to
uarm to the idea ot effluent charges and other
market mechanisms as tools that ha\e prac-
tical use, the debate oxer policv continues.
Portney l" edited a volume in which five dis-
tinguished economists reviewed the social and
institutional factors causing the U S to favor
direct regulations over market mechanisms that
use reward and penaltv incentives and dis-
incentives. The concensus ^vas that the rogu-
latorv approach has 'and is' straining the
nation's ability to pursue its economic and
environmental goals and that a shift tov. ard
greater use of charges and so forth, is needed.
Ricketts and Webb,11 however, argued that, in
most practical circumstances, very complicated
tax i or charge) structures would be needed
to achieve environmental goals at least cost.
Dav,1- explored a new approach to policv,
emphasizing flexibility rather than efficiency
\rguing that economists and other social sci-
entists are incapable of accurately predicting
future conditions he stated that they should
guide policy makers so as to make them better
able to deal with "surprises." The precise im-
plications of his argument relative to the
debate over effluent charges is a matter likely
to attract considerable attention in the future.
Indeed, an article by Storev and WalkerI3
explored traditional versus "adaptive" models
for setting standards and emphasized the role
of uncertainty in making policy decisions.
As in most years, a large part of the litera-
ture of water quality econotrics in 1978 dealt
vv'th development or application of planning
models. Baker u developed a model for plan-
ing and locating on-site waste disposal sys-
tems, while Brinkley and Hanemann 15 con-
tributed to "the literature of recreational re-
source planning. Muller's l(i econometric study
°f the Canadian pulp and paper industry in-
'Jicated that the costs of pollution control were
'-inhkely to adversely affect that industry's
economic performance. In what was possibly
°'ic of the more interesting papers of the year,
"fookshire l~ bridged the gap between regional
Planning and the theoretical discussions of
effluent charges or subsidies for pollution con-
tiol He noted that proposed uses of charges,
taxes, and subsidies are all piemised on exist-
ing institutional •)tnicfiires such as schools and
road, and do not address alteration of those
structures Biookshirc argued that alterations
,n the institutional structure of a region
through exogenous investments are also valid
\vavs to achieve readjustments needed to
achie\ e \\ ater qualitv and other environmental
goals Peeie ct rt/.;s also gave attention to in-
stitutional factors and their effect on the dis-
tnbution of benefits and costs in particular
communities. In taking into account possible
uses of migration data to draw inferences
about the values of environmental amenities,
Brookslme bnefk explored a topic developed
in more depth bv Sigmon.'J Sigmon used
the ^ell-known Tiebout Model to develop a
econometric procedure tor estimating trade-
otfs between environmental amenities and in-
come concluding that while serious technical
pioblcms must be overcome in the econometric
procedures, such an approach has promise for
estimating the monetary value of environmental
improvements.
The literature showed continued progress
in modeling economic-ecologic interfaces.
O'Havre and Mace-0 made use of modified
input-output anahsis to examine the spatial
distribution of pollutants from nonpoint as
\vell as point sources and applied their model
to an evaluation of the economic-ecologic ef-
fects ot various forest management alternatives.
Stacey and Flmn J1 also used input-output
techniques to estimate environmental impacts
of new products developed by specific indus-
tries. Honey and Hogg -- explored use of a
cultural-ecological model in social impact as-
sessment with specific application to the tem-
poral and spatial effects of lake restoration
programs. Griffith -"J recommended use of a
Lorenx, curve to show the spatial inequalities
arising from project implementation and made
a start toward fusing social welfare analysis
and economic analysis in assessment methodol-
ogy. WidstrandC4 edited a. study from the
Scandinavian Institute of African Studies that
also emphasized the need for better under-
standing of institutional obstacles to improved
water quality planning, particularly in Third
World countries. Finally, Willeke:5 studied
the equity of financial arrangements used in
paying for municipal water quality control pro-
grams and concluded that some institutional
practices, such as rate structures which sub-
sidize new residents, were significant causes
of inequity.
June 1979 1099
2-65
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In 1978 there was gro\ving public conearn
about the costs of environmental protection
measures and their effect on inflation. Segal
and Drieling •6 surveyed expenditures 011 pol-
lution abatement and control in the U. S. in
the period from 1972 to 1976 and found that
expenditures on water pollution control and
abatement increased at an annual rate of about
15%in the 4-year period. The engineering
firm of Dames and Moore prepared three stud-
ies for EPA: a study of construction costs of
536 treatment plants,-7 a study of costs of 455
conveyance facilities,28 and a study of opera-
tions and maintenance costs of 348 treatment
plants and 155 sewer collection systems.29 A
similar study from Great Britain3" examined
costs of constructions for water supply and
wastewater disposal facilities and used the
results to develop a model for cost estimation
in national and regional planning. Clark and
English 31 focused on the costs of using reno-
vated waste water to supplement water sup-
plies and found that the least expensive
method would increase the total cost of waters
by about 25%. Vaughan 3J concentrated on
estimating costs of pollution control at the
plant level, using process analysis and a de-
tailed linear programming model, while Brill
and Nakamura 33 demonstrated the use of a
branch and bound procedure to generate al-
ternative planning schemes in wastewater
treatment plant design. A study of the eco-
nomics of chloroform removal from drinking
water by Cumberland and Choi3* questioned
the cost effectiveness of making major changes
in treatment of drinking water supplies.
Young's study of the cost of land application
of wastewater,35 however, found center-pivot
irrigation of municipal waste to be quite cost-
effective for small communities.
In closing, a note should be made of several
general studies of significance. A monograph
by Ayres 3B examined the use of large-scale,
materials-balance models in environmental
planning. N'ijkamp J: published a major new
text in environmental economics that will be
useful to advanced students. Goodall et a/.38
analyzed the fiscal practices of California water
districts and Dale J9 surveyed the impact of
Proposition 13 on operations of wastewater
treatment facilities in California.
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Land Econ., 54, 228 (1978).
2. Magat, W. A., "Pollution Control and Tech-
nological Advance: A Dynamic Model of the
Finn." /i>ur. Environ. Econ. and A/gt., 5
1 (1978).
3. Morfit, L. ]., ct al., "A 'Putty-Clay' Approach
to Aggregation of Pioduction/Polmtion Pos-
sibilities: An Application in Dairy Waj.te
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4. Harford, }. D , "Finn Behavior Under Im-
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5. Cartee, C. P., and Williams, D. C., Jr., "A
Study of Coastal Pollution and Agency In-
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6. Dates, W. E., and Strassmann, D. L., "The
Use of Effluent Fees to Regulate Public Sec-
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Econ. and Ugt, 5, 283 ( 1978).
7. Unger, K., "Locutional Pricing of an Environ-
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Met., 5, 207 (1978).
8. Huszar, P. C.. and Sabey, M. B., "Improving
Irrigation Return Flow Quality with a Water
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978 (1978).
9. Trock, W. L., et al., "Socio-Economic and In-
stitutional Factors in Irrigation Return Flow
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Robert S. Kerr Environmental Research Lab-
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10. "Current Issues in U. S. Environmental Policy."
Portney, P. R. [Ed.], The Johns Hopkins
Univ. Press, Baltimore, Md. (1978).
11. Ricketts, M.. and Webb, M. G., "Pricing and
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Scand. Jour. Econ., 80, 53 (1978).
12. Day, Richard H., "Adaptive Economics and
Natural Resources Policy." Amer. Jour.
Afjrt. Econ , 60. 276 ( 1978).
U. Storey, D. ]., and Walker, M., "Water Pollu-
tion Control Theory—An Economic Tax-
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11 Baker, F G., "A Model for Planning and Loca-
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15. Bnnkley, C. S., and Hanemann, W. M., "The
Recreation Benefits of Water Quality Im-
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16. Muller, R. A., "Econometric Analysis of En-
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Can. Jour. Econ., 11, 263 ( 1978).
17. Brookshire, D. S., "A Macroeconomic Analysis
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18. Peele, E., ct al., "Social Impact Analyses."
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1100 Journal WPCF, Vol. 51, No. 6
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20
22
26
19. Sicrnon, B , "Preferences for Lnoadon-Deprn-
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Paper presented at Southern Regional
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O'Hayre, A. P., and Mace, A. C., "Hydro-
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tionships." Jour. Environ. Mat, ~1, 125
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Stacy, G. S., and Flinn, J. E., "Development of
an Economics-Based Methodology for Pro-
jection Future Pollution Problems." EPA-
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Honey, W. D., and Hogg, T. C., "A Rescaich
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76." Sure, of Current BUT., 58, 12 (Feb-
ruary 1978).
27. "Construction Costs for Municipal Wastewater
Treatment Plants: 197,3-1977." Dames &
Moore, EPA-430/9-77-013, Washington,
D. C. (1978).
28. "Construction Costs for Municipal Wastewater
Conveyance Systems: 1973-1977." Dames
& Moore, EPA-430/9-77-014, Washington,
D. C. (1978).
29. "Analysis of Operations and Maintenance Costs
for Municipal Wastewater Treatment Sys-
tems." EPS-430/9-77-015, Dames & Moore,
Washington, D. C. (1978).
30. "Cost Information for Water Supply and Sew-
age Disposal?' Water Research Centre,
Medmanham Laboratory, Tech. Report TR
Sljdarlow, Bucks, U. K. (1977).
Clark, R. A., and English, J. N., "Cost Studies
for Renovated Wastewater." Jour, Water
Poll. Control Fed., 50, 688 (1978).
Vaughan, W. J., "Process Analysis for Environ-
mental Quality Management Modeling: Gen-
eral Considerations and a Practical Ex-
ample." Jour. Environ. 1/gt., 7, 101 (1978).
Brill, E. D., Jr., and Nakamtira, M., "A Branch
and Bound Method for Use in Planning Re-
gional Wastewater Treatment Facilities,"
Water Resources Res., 14, 109 (1978).
Cumberland, J. H., and Choi, K.. "Economic
Analysis of Chloroform Removal from Drink-
31
32
33
36.
39
ins; W.itcr ' Wif'T Rfionrces ?•••<> irch
Center. Tech Kept. 49. Univ. of Maryland,
ColK«.. Park i 1978).
Young, C. E., "Land Application of Waste-
water A Cost Analysis." U. S. Dept. of
\gnc-iilrure. Economics, Statistics, ind Co-
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and the Envaronmarr
Allen V. Kneese
Table of Contents
Tlie Delaware Study 151
The Model 153
Analysis of Objectives \ 54
Benefits of Improved Water Quality 159
Effluent Charges on the Delaware Estuary 162
Flintier Comments on the Effluent Charge Approach 166
Stochastic Hydrology 168
The Potomac Study 170
The Basin and Its Problems 171
Searching for Additional Alternatives 175
Stochastic Aspects 178
Conclusions from the Potomac Study 180
Other Reseat ch and Experiences 181
The Trent Study , 183
The Westernport Bay Land-Use Model 187
Concluding Comment ' 193
Penguin Books
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Chapter 7
Economic Studies of Water-Quality
Management in Particular Basins
Chapter 6 has laid the methodological groundwork for a con-
sideration of some actual case studies in this chapter. The
first of them is regarded by many as the 'classic' economic
water-quality management study. It was conducted in the
1960s by a Federal Government Agency in the United States
and focused on the Delaware estuary region. The basic model
it developed has found many other applications in both
aqueous and atmospheric environments. The other case
studies with different geographical setting, somewhat different
methodologies, and addressing different aspects of water-
quality problems are also reviewed. While all of them made
significant contributions, a common deficiency of all of these
studies is that they do not incorporate the possibility of
land-use controls in an integral manner. In view of this an
ongoing study which attempts to remedy this deficiency is
reviewed at the end of the chapter.
The Delaware Study
The Delaware river basin, though small by the standards of
the great American river basins and draining an area of only
12,765 square miles, holds a population of over six million.
Portions of the basin, especially the Lehigh sub-basin and
the Delaware estuary area, are among the most highly
industrialized and densely populated regions in the world, and
it is in these areas that the main water-quality problems are
" encountered.1 The Delaware estuary, an eighty-six-mile reach
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of the Delaware river from Trenton, New Jersey, to Listen
Point, Delaware (see Map 1), is most important in terms of
the quantity of water impacted, the area involved, the extent
of industrial activity, and the number of people affected.
Despite early industrial and municipal development in the
basin, water-quality problems were neglected until the last
few decades. The Interstate Commission on the Delaware
River Basin (INCODEL) was formed in 1936, and under its
auspices the states in the basin signed a reciprocal agreement
on water-quality control. This provided the legal basis for
construction of treatment plants by municipalities after the
Second World War. The standards of treatment achieved were
not particularly high (on the average not much more than
removal of the grosser solids), and the residual waste load
from the plants, together with industrial discharges, con-
tinued to place very heavy oxygen demands on the estuary.
Especially during the warm summer months, DO fell, and
Still falls, to low levels or becomes exhausted in a few portions
of the reach of the estuary from Philadelphia to the
Pennsylvania-Delaware state line.
There are many water-quality characteristics which affect
the value of the various services of a watercourse. As we saw
in Chapter 2, and at the end of the previous chapter, one of the
most central is DO, which is affected by meteorological and
hydrological variables and by the discharge of organic wastes.
DO is also something of a surrogate measure for other
quality characteristics. The peiformance of waste water
treatment plants is usually measured in terms of their ability
to remove BOD from waste waters. Thus my discussion of the
analysis of the Delaware estuary is focused primarily (but not
exclusively) on oxygen conditions.
In 1957-8, at the request of the Corps of Engineers (the
federal agency responsible for developing 'comprehensive'
plans in the river basins of the eastern United States), the
U.S. Public Health Service (which at that time was the
responsible federal agency in regard to water pollution - now
it is the Federal Water Quality Administration) made a
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preliminary study of water quality in the Delaware estuary.
The data it produced regarding the quality of the estuary led
state and interstate agencies, concerned with water quality, to
request a comprehensive study of the estuary under the
provisions of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act. The
study was begun in 1961, and in the summer of 1966 a report
was issued by the Federal Water Pollution Control Admini-
stration - Delaware Estuary Comprehensive Study: Preliminary
Report and Findings.2 The study made an effort to measure
external costs as well as costs of control associated with
various policy alternatives. One of its main contributions was
to link the model of waste degradation and reaeration
(Streeter-Phelps) for multiple points of discharge, which I
described briefly at the end of the last chapter, to an economic
optimization model.
The Model
Assume that a watercourse consists of n homogenous segments
(thirty segments were used in the Delaware estuary study) and
c( represents the improvement in water quality required to
meet a DO target in segment /. The target vector c of m
elements can be obtained by changes of inputs to the water-
course from combinations of the n segments. Define another
vector x = (x,, xh..., xn) in which the values of x refer to
the volume of waste discharges in each of the segments. In a
feasible solution, these values represent the waste discharges
at the various points which meet the target vector c. This
vector generates DO changes through the mechanism of the
constant coefficients of the linear transfer function system
already described at the end of the last chapter: ati = DO
improvement in segment / per unit reduction of xlt
i= 1,..., m;y = !,...,«; and, of course x, > 0.
If we let A be the (m by n) matrix of transfer coefficients,
then Ax is the vector of DO changes corresponding to x.
Now, recalling that c is the vector of target improvements,
we have two restrictions on x, namely, Ax ^ c and x ^. 0.
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The reader will have noticed that mathematically these ar
sets of linear constraints exactly analogous to those m the
industrial production problem I used as an example in the
previous chapter. All we need is an objective function to
complete the problem. Let d be a row vector where d, = un;t
cost of x,,j = 1,... ,n. Notice that this assumes linear cost
functions.3 We can now write the problem as a standard
linear program,
minimum value of dx
such that Ax > c
and x > 0
Of course, the transfer coefficients a(,, as already explained,
relate to a steady state of specified conditions of stream flow
and temperature. Thus the model turns out to be totally
deterministic, and the variability of conditions is handled in
this analysis by assuming extreme conditions usually associ-
ated with substantial declines in water quality. This is a
weakness in programming-type models, and an alternative
mode of analysis which can handle some stochastic elements
(but with unfortunately its own set of weaknesses) is dis-
cussed in connection with the Potomac case in the next
section.
A linear programming model of the general type just
described was constructed for the Delaware estuary. In
addition to DO, it included other, nondegradable, types of
material. Computation of the atl's is, as noted in the previous
chapter, easier for these. Once done, the model provided an
extremely flexible tool for the analysis of alternative policies.
Analysis of Objectives
A major part of the strategy of the Delaware study was to use
the model to analyze the total and incremental costs of
achieving five 'objective sets', each representing a different
package and spatial distribution of water-quality charac-
teristics, with the level of quality increasing from set 5
(representing 1964 water quality) to set 1. In some runs,
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overall costs were minimized by the programming model. In
others, additional constraints were added to represent more
usual administrative approaches to the problem. The water-
quality characteristics and associated levels and the areas to
which they apply are shown for objective set 2 in Table 12.
Table 12. Water-Quality Goals for Objective Set 2'
WATER
QUAL'TY . -
FAHAMETERt
I i *
III n
Du»iv«( oxv9"nt 55
5 5 1 4 0
«0|50 5J)»5
1 1
00*1 -6/15
,nd 9/16 -12/31
Chlondwf
j *OQOU 4000| SOQOtl 5000"
5000"UoOOTT
Tufb«J'lY (Tut N L.*30
N 1_«30 N 1- N.L.
pHTtlpHunitil 6.M.S
pHtT 5/30 -9/15 7-85 | 6 5-8 5
63 15 7-a.S
AIMin.iy tt i 20 SO 20-50| 20-120
H»rdnt«ff , 95
»|TH>
Tempwiturttt (°F) Prncni lev* I
x>l!|f '0001 0001 0.005 OOOSjOOl
Sv«Jnj|f OS
' mg/1 unton SMC* futf TtAtof Jnt
IMifOTXjm t$-d*Ymm
rang* ^| Montftfy n*«n
ISummar
c in
HJL.
SOURCZ : Allen V. Knecse and Blaire T. Bower. Managing Water Quality: Economics
Techno tc^y. Institutions. Baltimore. Johns Hopkins Press. 1968.
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The thirty sections referred to in the table are shown o
Map 1. An effort was then made to measure benefits associated
with the improvement in water quality indicated by the
successive objective sets. Before turning to the benefit estima-
tion, it will be useful to describe the objective sets a bit
further.
Map. I. Map of the Delaware Estuary Showing Analysis Sections
N _\ ^TRENTON
Miles
SOURCE: Federal Water Pollution Control Administration, Delaware Estuary
Comprehensive Study, 1966.
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Table 13 shows several water-quality parameters with the
sedated levels for the five objective sets. The general nature
"•f the objective sets is as follows:
V' Obiective Set 1. This is the highest set. It makes provision
for lar°e increases in water-contact recreation in the estuary.
It also makes special provision for 6.6 p.p.m. levels of dissolved
0>xygen to provide safe passage for anadromous fish during the
spring and fall migration periods. Thus this objective set
should produce conditions in which water quality is basically
no obstacle to the migration of shad and other anadromous
(migratory) fishes.
Objective Set 2. Under this set the area available for water-
contact recreation is constricted somewhat. Some reduction in
sport and commercial fishing would also be expected because
of the somewhat lower dissolved oxygen objective. This set,
like objective set 1, makes special provision for high dissolved
oxygen during periods of anadromous fish passage.
Objective Set 3. This set is similar to set 2. Although there is
no specific provision for raising dissolved oxygen during
periods of anadromous fish migrations, there is compara-
tively little difference in the survival probability under
objective sets 2 and 3. Under the waste-loading conditions
envisioned for objective set 3, the estimated survival 24 out of
25 years would be at least 80 percent - compared with 90 per-
cent for set 2.
Objective Set 4. This provides for a slight increase over
1964 levels in water-contact recreation and fishing in the lower
sections of the portion of the estuary studied. Generally,
water quality is improved slightly over 1964 conditions and
the probability of anaerobic conditions occurring is greatly
reduced.
Objective Set 5. This would maintain 1964 conditions in the
estuary. It would provide for no more than a prevention of
further water-quality deterioration.
The costs of achieving objective sets 1 through 4 by various
combinations of waste discharge reduction at particular
outfalls for the waste-load conditions expected to prevail in
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Table 14. Summary of Total Costs (millions, 1968 dollars) of Achieving Objective Sets 1-4 (costs include cost of
maintaining present (1964) conditions and reflect waste-load conditions projected for 1975-80)
Flow at Trenton = 3,000 cubic feet per second
Objective
set
1
2
3
4
Uniform treatment
Capital
costs
180
135
75
55
O&M
costs*
280
(190)
180
(12-0)
80
(5-5)
57
(5-0)
Total
CObtS
460*
315*
155*
130
Zoned treatment
Capital
costs
180
105
50
40
\
O&M
costs*
280
(190)
145
(100)
70
(4-5)
40
(2-5)
Total
costs
460'
250*
120*
80
Cost
Capital
costs
180
115
50
40
minimization
O&M
costs*
280
(190)
100
(70)
35
(?.-5)
25
(1-5)
Total
costs
460*
215*
85*
65
• Operation and maintenance costs, discounted at 3 percent twenty-year timt horizon; figures in parentheses are equivalent annual operation
and maintenance costs in millions of dollars/year. t High-rate secondary to tertiary (92-98 percent removal) for all waste sources for all prosranu.
Includes in-stream aeration cost of 520 million. 1 Includes $1-52 million for either sludge removal or aeration to meet goals in river
sections 4*3 and #4.
SOURCE: Allen V. Kneese and Blaire T. Bower, Managing Water Quality. Economics, Technology. Institutions, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins
Press. 1968.
Table 15. Costs and Benefits of Water-Quality Improvement in the Delaware Estuarv Area* (million dollars)
Objective
set
I
2
3
4
Estimated
total
cost
460
215-315
85-155
65-130
Estimated
recreation
benefits
160-350
140-320
130-310
120-280
Estimated incremental
cost
minimum*
245
130
20
maximum*
145
160
25
Estimated incremental
benefits
minimum*
20
10
(0
maximum'
30
10
30
• All costs and benefits are present values calculated with 3 percent discount rate and twenty-year time horizon.
t Difference between adjacent minima. J Difference between adjacent maxima.
SOUUCE: Allen V. Kneese and Blaire T. Bower. Managing Wa,tr Quoltiy: Economic,, Technology. Invitation.,, iwifmoro. Johns llorthn Pres*. |»*».
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produce the specified quality levels at about half the
cost of the uniform treatment method. Especially at the hn>t-,e,
quality level, the cost saving is of a highly significant rragrv'
tude. The present value of the cost stream saved is mV-
order of 3150.000,000. The result occurs because, as we sa\T>"
Chapter 5, the incentive effect of the charge is to concentrate
discharge reduction where costs are lowest.
Table 16. Cost of Treatment under Alternative Programs
objective
(p.p.m.)
2
Program
LC
1-6
7-0
UT SECh
(million dollars per vear)
5-0
20-0
2-4
120
ZECh
2-4
8-6
The least-cost system is capable of reducing costs somewhat
further than either the uniform or the zoned charge since it
programs waste discharges at each point specifically in
relation to the cost of improving quality in the critical reach,
but this comes at the cost of detailed information on treatment
costs at each point and a distribution of costs such that some
waste dischargers experience heavy costs and others virtually
none. The least-cost system is closely approached by ZECh
at the higher quality level. In effect, this zone charge procedure
'credits' waste dischargers at locations remote from the
critical point with degradation of their wastes in the inter-
vening reach of a stream befote they arrive at the critical
reach. This is a necessary condition for full efficiency when
effluent charges are used to achieve a standard at a critical
reach in a stream. The reason that the ZECh does not
achieve quite the same efficiency as the least-cost program is
that the 'credit' is not specific to the individual waste discharger
but is awarded in blocks - three in this case.
Another way of putting this is that equalizing marginal
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\ .^te-water-reduction cost at all outfalls is strictly speaking a
I n-"-essary condition for cost minimization only when a homo-
' 'lump' of assimilative capacity is being allocated - or
formally, when all the coefficients in the transfer matrix
ng to a binding constraint are identical. When they
#6 not, thorough-going cost minimization requires that prices
be 'tailored' for each outfall. This explains why the solution
j,3seci on a single charge only approaches but does not reach
t[,ie programmed cost minimization solution. How closely it
will approach is an empirical question relating to the magni-
tude of the fli/s.
Having the tool of transfer coefficients in hand we can now
treat this matter more rigorously than was done in Chapter 5.
Assume two industrial dischargers with the following cost
functions for reducing waste discharge:
(1)
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If we include the constraint R9 — 06i*i + ae2x2, we have
3 equations and 3 unknowns (xlt x2, and /).
Solving for A, we get:
(7)
and
(8)
Note that:
or
A = — -£
ae2 dx2.
1 dci 1 dc2
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Economic Studies of Water-Quality Management
plus cost of treatment - is about the same as the cost of
treatment only under the uniform treatment program. About
half of this outlay does not represent an actual resources cost
but rather a rental-type payment for the use of assimilative
capacity.
It should be noted that an important efficiency advantage of
the effluent charges programs as contrasted with the least-cost
program is their relatively smaller demand for information and
analytical refinement. A study of the type already performed
for the Delaware estuary could serve as the basis for an
effluent charge scheme. An order-of-magnitude estimate of the
required charge reveals itself. Actually, since the costs do not
take account of the possibility of process change in industry,
which is often cheaper than 'end of pipe' treatment, the ten
cents per pound of BOD charge was probably too high and
could be adjusted downward at a later point (one would need
to take inflation into account). Also, the charge provides a
continuing incentive for the discharger to reduce his waste
load by placing him under the persistent pressure of monetary
penalties. He is induced to develop new technology and as it
develops to implement it. As new technology develops, the
effluent charge could be gradually reduced while the stream
standard is maintained, or the standard could be allowed to
rise if this is deemed desirable. The process of induced tech-
nological change has particularly striking results in this field
since the waste assimilative services of watercourses have
heretofore been completely unpriced.
The direct control measures implicit in the least-cost
program, on the other hand (as well as the effluent standard
of the uniform treatment program), provide only a more
limited incentive to improved technology. Moreover, the
minimum cost program would requiie not only detailed
information on current cost levels at each individual outfall,
but also information on changes in cost with changing tech-
nology, in regard to industrial processes, product mix,
treatment cost, etc., and would be extremely inequitable in its
cost distribution.
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The Delaware estuary survey was a pioneering study of
water-quality management and is of continuing importance
Some of the tools it developed are in use by the Delaware
River Basin Commission, and it is still frequently referred to
in discussions of policy in the United States - a point I win
develop a little later in the chapter. It was the first study to
embody at least a rudimentary ecological model into an
economic optimization framework, and it provided an
illuminating analysis of several policy options including
effluent charges.
The study did have some major deficiencies, however.
Among them are that only a very limited range of tech-
nological alternatives for managing water quality was exam-
ined and that the stochastic aspects of water quality were
not analyzed. These matters were considered, however, in the
Potomac study to which I turn next. Before doing so how-
ever, I must introduce one additional piece of methodologi-
cal equipment - stochastic or probabilistic generators of
hydrological records.
Stochastic Hydrology
As everyone knows, the flow of rivers (one of the major
determinants of their capacity to assimilate waste materials) is
not constant with time. It varies seasonally in somewhat
regular patterns but with a large random component. Tradi-
tionally, in designing flow regulating structures (reservoirs)
an empirical device called a 'mass curve' is used to determine
the yield that can be sustained from the reservoir during
drought periods. Underlying this technique is the assumption
that future flows (measured on a daily or monthly basis) will
be an exact replication of flows observed historically (usually
there are thirty years or so of good records in the more
advanced countries).
An alternative, that is more defensible on statistical grounds,
is to assume that the historical record is a sample from a
much larger population and that what will remain invariant in
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. future are only certain of the moments (mean, standard
deviation, skewness) of the distribution of observed flows.
Based on the latter assumption, stochastic hydrology genera-
tors have been devised which can simulate long hydrologic
sequences incorporating extreme values and patterns of events
\ not in the historic record while maintaining selected moments
of the frequency distribution of that record. There are
difficult problems associated with such generators, but many
of them have been overcome. The problems involve such
things as serial correlation in the record of flows and main-
taining cross and serial correlations for separate gauging
stations in the same system. I will not attempt to treat these
since my intent is just to acquaint the reader with the general
recursive relationships used.
In these 'Markovian' models the basic recursive relation
used can be represented by the following equation8:
In this model, *(+l, the flow in the (/ + l)st interval, is a
linear function of xt, the flow in the ith interval; of a stan-
dardized random deviate /(+1; and of the population para-
meters p (the population mean), a (the population standard
deviation), ft (the regression coefficient of flows in the (i + l)st
interval on values in the j'th interval), and P (the correlation
coefficient between flows in successive time periods). The
standardized random deviate ti+i has zero mean and unit
variance.
It can be shown that if the distribution of flows is normal
and the regression functions of xt on *,_i is linear and homo-
scedastic (of constant variance), the conditional expectation
of x,, given xt-i, is given by
and the expected variance of xit given xt-i, is
Var(jf, 1 .x.-O = a2(l - p2).
Thus, we can see in the recursive equation that the first two
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In 1963, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers submitted the
Potomac River Basin Report. This report was the first one in
which a fedeial water resource agency submitted a 'compre-
hensive' plan in which water-quality management was the
major consideration. The plan took a quality objective
stated in physical terms (parts per million of dissolved oxygen)
as given, and recommended a program of waste treatment and
low-flow regulation to meet this objective in the future. While
it was a pioneering effort, the benefit evaluation techinique,
based on the 'alternative cost procedure', was grossly deficient,
and the range of alternatives considered for water-quality
improvement was still very narrow, even though wider than
that included in the Delaware study. Basically, the Corps of
Engineers limited its planning to consideration of those
quality improvement facilities which could clearly be imple-
mented through existing governmental institutions. As we
shall see, this restricted the range of choice greatly and led to
the recommendation of a set of facilities which was far from
the least costly which could have been devised to achieve the
stated water-quality objective.
A later Resources for the Future study,10 which forms the
basis foi my further discussion, used the Corps of Engineers
data plus considerable additional information to define
further the range of alternatives for water-quality management
in the Potomac estuary in the neighborhood of Washington,
D.C., the locus of most of the water-quality problems.
The Basin and Its Problems
The watershed of the Potomac, an area of about 14,000 square
miles, lies in portions of four states and the District of
Columbia. About three quarters of the population in the basin
is found in the Washington metropolitan area. This area,
which extends beyond the District of Columbia into Maryland
and Virginia, already has a population of nearly 3 million
persons and is one of the most rapidly growing metropolitan
areas in the nation. The Washington area lies near the head of
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terms on the right-hand side are the expected value of ,YUI>
given Xi has occurred (February's flow, January having
occurred), and the last term is the random component con-
sisting of a randomly selected normal, deviate which, when
multiplied by the expected variance of x\ + \, given xt, brings
the result back into the proper dimension comparable with the
first two terms of the right side. It can also be shown that to
treat non-normal distributions it is sufficient to alter the
distribution of the random additive component and thus
maintain higher moments of observed data.9
It is readily seen that a recursive model of this type could be
used to generate indefinitely long sequences of hydrological
record to be used as inputs to a simulation model. As long a
generated sequence of flows as is wished (say, several thousand
years) can then be used in analyzing the probabilistic per-
formance of a reservoir, or other water quantity and quality
management system elements. Stochastic hydrology is used in
connection with the Potomac case study to which I now turn.
The Potomac Study
A 1961 amendment to the Federal Water Pollution Control
Act of 1948, which, with minor exceptions, was the first step
by the United States Federal Government into what had been
an exclusive area of state sovereignty, is the starting point for
discussion of the Potomac case. The feature of the 1961 Act
which is most relevant to present purposes is that it provided
for the inclusion of subsidized storage in federal multi-
purpose reservoirs to augment low flows for the purpose of
improving water quality. This opened the door to the possi-
bility of including in federally subsidized water-quality
improvement programs technological options other than
treatment. Naturally this possibility drew the attention of
federal agencies engaged in the planning and construction of
public works related to water resources. In the eastern United
States the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is the lead agency
in this respect.
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the Potomac estuary which is heavily used for recreation
Water supply for the area is taken from the Potomac n\er
above the estuary. The estuary periodically experiences a !ow
level of dissolved oxygen - a condition which could get much
worse as waste loads from the metropolitan area and upstream
sources mount. The Corps of Engineers as part of its plannin°
effort projected water demands and waste loads to the year
2010. One of the central objectives of the plan was to control
the effects of waste loads expected to prevail then. Among the
planning assumptions was that the maximum feasible control
of waste loads would result from conventional secondary
sewage treatment (about 90 percent BOD removal).
The plan made public in 1963 recommended the construc-
tion by the year 2010 of sixteen major reservoirs in the
Potomac basin and more than 400 headwater structures
(see Map 2). These were meant to meet projected water
supply, water-quality, and flood control objectives. Of the
sixteen major reservoirs, ten were planned to meet projected
upstream objectives for the low-flow regulation for water
supply and quality control. At the same time, this group of
reservoirs would provide a higher sustained flow at Washing-
ton sufficient to meet the projected municipal water diversions
there. The remaining group of six reservoirs (providing 60 per-
cent of the proposed yield - 2340 c.f.s. (cubic feet per second)
out of 3931 c.f.s.) was designed to augment flows into the
estuary sufficiently to maintain 4 p.p.m. of dissolved oxygen
(twenty-four-hour monthly mean for the minimum month).
The projected storage was based on counteracting residual
2010 waste loads and an assumed replication of the historical
record of flows into the estuary (i.e., the mass curve approach
was used to determine requited storage to sustain flows cal-
culated to be needed to offset residual waste loads to the extent
of maintaining 4 p.p.m. DO). From a statistical point of view,
the mass curve approach has great deficiencies which were
discussed in connection with our earlier consideration of
stochastic hydrology. I will return to this point a little later.
A benefit-cost analysis was presented which indicated that
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,i,e benefits from flow regulation would outweigh its costs.
out this analysis did not do what benefit-cost analysis is
•ntended to accomplish - assist in deciding whether a pro-
*,{ap 2. Major Reservoirs in Recommended Plan for Potomac
Basin
SOURCE: PRB Report, Vol. I, p. 30, reproduced in Robert K. Davis, The Range of
Choice in Water Management (Baltimore, Johns Hopkjos Press, 1968).
posed investment is socially worthwhile. The preset physical
quality objective of 4 p.p.m. of DO was taken as given in the
planning. It was assumed that treatment of the sewage from
the Washington metropolitan area could not succeed in
removing more than 90 percent of the waste load. This is
insufficient to meet the objective. The only alternative
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seriously investigated was low-flow regulation to improve the
waste assimilative capacity of the estuary. Benefits from
low-flow regulation were taken to be the cost of a single-
purpose reservoir designed to meet low-flow requirements at
each point of projected need without regard to the com-
plementary effects of meeting upstream needs. Moreover
costs of the alternative reservoiis were calculated at a higher
rate of interest - presumably because it was assumed they
would be implemented by state or local governments which
have to pay higher rates of interest than the federal agencies
use in their own calculations.
This string of planning assumptions was bound to produce
positive net benefits for flow regulation. But this result was
obtained without even addressing the real question - whether
the 4 p.p.m. objective was justified by the willingness of
beneficiaries to pay at least as much as it costs to maintain it.
Clearly, the benefit-cost analysis as it was performed is not
helpful in deciding whether the plan is justified.
Furthermore, for various reasons having to do with limita-
tions on the authority of water resources agencies and their
perception of problems and appropriate solutions, the plan-
ners made no concerted or systematic effort to search for and
evaluate alternative ways (in addition to flow regulation) of
achieving the specified water-quality objective. The measures
recommended for quality control were limited to basic con-
ventional treatment and low-flow augmentation - measures
which could clearly be implemented by the federal and local
government agencies which are the traditional purveyors of
water services in the United States. To have implemented a
program embodying the less conventional measures which the
later Resources for the Future study demonstrated would have
entered into a cost-minimizing solution and would have
required institutional change. The possibility of such change
was not contemplated in the planning process. Failure to
consider institutional reform as a possible objective of the
planning process is a failing frequently encountered around
the world and I shall have more to say about it subsequently.
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Searching for Additional Alternatives
The follow-up Resources for the Future study showed that if
the plan had included certain collective measures - which no
existing agency had a clear authority or incentive to finance,
construct, and operate - it would have entered into a least-cost
svstem for meeting the oxygen objective. Had such a system
served as the alternative for benefit analysis, net benefits for
flow regulation, at least for the larger-scale reservoir systems,
would have been grossly negative. But, in general, the alter-
native cost-benefit estimation procedures are inappropriate
in cases like this.
In going through the later analysis, the Corps assumption
that wastes in the Washington metropolitan area would
receive 90 percent treatment was (somewhat arbitrarily) used
as a baseline. The costs of other alternatives were then weighed
off against the incremental cost of flow regulation for counter-
, acting the residual oxygen deficit.
! Costs were obtained for different levels of low-flow regula-
; tion by scaling down by various amounts the Corps's proposed
low-flow regulation system. The scaled-down systems were
; roughly optimized by using a computer simulation program
i which permitted the historical trace of hydrology to be
regulated by the various systems.
The line between simulation models and the optimizing type
of programming models, such as that used in the Delaware
study, is often not very clean cut. In genera], however, simula-
| tions are used to play out the implications of certain assump-
,' tions, (reservoir sizes, operating rules, etc.) either solely in
| terms of the behavior of the natural system upon which they
I have an impact or on certain economic variables - such as
| costs. Normally they do not contain an explicit optimizing
t procedure but simply enumerate a large number of alterna-
f live results. This is a problem because the number of possible
alternative results can easily become unmanageably large.
This was not so in the case of the Potomac study, however,
because the range of variables was carefully limited and only
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large increments were permitted. The advantage of
tion is that it can more easily handle non-linearities a-M
probabilistic aspects of problems than can mathematical pr'
gramming.
In the first set of Resources for the Future analyses
historical hydrology was used to maintain close comparability
with the Corps results. In computing costs for the successively
smaller reservoir systems, account was taken of the difference
in flood damage reduction and recreation services realized bv
any scaled-down system in comparison to the full proposed
Corps of Engineers system.
Costs of several alternative ways of equivalently offsetting
the waste load were also developed. These included processes
for further treatment of the waste load (microstraining, step
aeration, chemical polymers, powdered carbon, and granular
carbon); costs for effluent distribution via pipeline along the
estuary to make better use of its natural assimilative capacity;
and re-oxygenation of the estuary which, like low-flow regula-
tion, improves assimilative capacity.
Computer simulation of the effects of these processes in view
of variations of river flow (using the historical hydrologic trace)
into the estuary show that they need to be operated on the
average only three and a half months per year in order to meet
the DO objective. Because the alternative systems are high in
operating cost and low in capital cost relative to low-flow
regulation, they can be comparatively efficient if operated only
as needed but would not be competitive if operated con-
tinuously, thereby overshooting quality goals most of the time.
Accordingly, they could only enter efficiently into the quality
management system if institutional means existed for care-
fully articulated design and operation in conjunction with
other elements of the system.
Establishing combinations which would meet the standard
required that if one process was reduced another had to be
equivalently increased. It was possible to use computer
simulation to exhaust all possible combinations of the feasible
and sufficient processes given the relatively large increments
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d for them. The computer program gave a complete
and cost ranking of all systems - some 300 in all.
A sampling of alternative feasible and sufficient systems is
shown in Table 17.
" This analysis shows that many combinations of processes
could achieve the objective at less cost than the proposed
Table 17- System Costs by General Class of Process Combinations.
Three and a Half Months' Operation (present worth, fifty-year
period, 4 percent discount in S million)
Alternative systems
1. Reoxygenation 20
2. Chemical polymers and reoxygenation 22
3. Step aeration and reoxygenation 25
4. Microstrainers and reoxygenation 28
5. Diversion and reoxygenation 33
6. Diversion, waste treatment and reoxygenauon 45
7. Low-flow augmentation and reoxygenation 60
8. Low-flow augmentation, reoxygenation and
waste treatment 60
9. Low-flow regulation 140
SOURCE : Adapted from various tables in Robert K. Davis, The Range of Choice in
Water Management. Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Press, 1963.
system based upon conventional treatment and flow regula-
tion. It is notable that all of them except the flow regulation
alternative would require the construction and closely articu-
lated operation of facilities which have not traditionally been
in the purview of either the federal or local government
(particularly reoxygenation and regional effluent distribution
works). Another salient point is that while low-flow regulation
is vastly more costly than reoxygenation or some of the other
alternatives, from the point of view of the people in the basin
it costs much less, because of subsidies. Low-flow regulation
for water-quality improvement is a fully nonreimbursable
purpose of federal water development in the United States,
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d to check that the yield of the proposed reservoirs system
u]d be sufficient to meet the objective. As has already been
Orcd. this analysis makes the statistically untenable assump-
'on that future stream flow will be a replication of the past.
To help illuminate the probability aspect of the water-
auaiity standards conventionally used in planning, a stochastic
hvdrology was generated for long periods of time and applied
to the reservoir simulation program.
Table 18 presents some figures for the different probabi-
lities of violating 2 and 4 p.p.m. DO levels when different
Table 18. Percentage of Time Monthly Mean DO is less than
2 p.p.m. for Five-hundred-Year Trials at Different DO Target
and System Capacities
Storage DO target
capacity p.p.m.
82,000 acre-ft
140,000
600,000
770,000
970,000
2
2
4
4
4
Percentage of
time < 2 p.p.m.
0-25
0-03
0-35
0-22
0
Percentage of
time < target
0-25
0-03
3-30
1-03
0-33
SOURCE : Robert K. Davis, The Range of Choice in Water Management. Baltimore.
Johns Hopkins Press, 1968.
systems of reservoirs are operated to achieve DO targets. In
this presentation it is assumed that low-flow regulation is the
only means used to counteract the residual deficit after about
90 percent treatment. This is done to spell out clearly the
implication for reservoir storage, even though in an optimized
or least-cost system the incremental costs of achieving lower
probabilities of violation would be less. It is interesting to note
two main points emerging from this analysis.
(1) Reducing the probability of violating the 4 p.p.m.
objective from 3-3 percent to 0-33 percent costs about
370,000 acre-feet in storage and around 50 million in dollars.
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while no subsidy at all is available for measures like reo
genation and waste diversion. Thus, the fact that federal w •-"
development policy is such that certain measures for develop
ment confer large subsidies on a region while otheis do not J*
also contribute to choices among alternatives which a-
distorted from a broader economic point of view.
Both of these factors were undoubtedly implicit considera-
tions in the plan recommended by the Corps. It is thus possible
to examine the existing institutional and policy restraints bv
means of economic systems analysis which is not limited bv
these restraints, and thus provide information on trie desira-
bility of institutional change. Such examination of institutional j
constraints clearly should be part of the planning process. In '<
the case of the Potomac it appears that much could be gained i
by institutional arrangements permitting the design and ;
operation of quality management systems embodying a wide
range of alternatives. !
Stochastic Aspects
So far, in my discussion of cases, I dealt with deterministic i
models. These, quite imperfectly, recognize the variability of 1
river flow by specifying some level below which flow is unlikely j
to drop. The Delaware estuary study took this approach and
so did the Corps study of the Potomac, as well as much of the !
Resources for the Future follow-on study. But the availa- '
bility of the Potomac reservoir simulation model made it j
possible to study some aspects of the probability question in a
more explicit way. It is one of the major disadvantages of ;
optimization models such as that used on the Delaware estuary
(which as already mentioned otherwise have great advantages) ;
that it is very difficult to incorporate stochastic aspects into
them.
The Corps of Engineers based its design on the specification
that DO concentrations in the estuary would not fall below
4 p.p.m. based on the twenty-four-hour monthly mean for the
minimum month. A standard kind of mass curve analysis was
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