United States
- {'.,- Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Air Quality FINAL REPORT
Planning and Standards EPA-453/R-94-040
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 June 1994
Air
INDUSTRY PROFILE
FOR THE
SECONDARY LEAD SMELTERS
NESHAP
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Industry Profile
for the
Secondary Lead Smelters
NESHAP
Emissions Standards Division
Lisa Conner
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air and Radiation
Office of Air Quality, Planning and Standards
MD-13; Research Triangle Park, N.C. 27711
June 1994
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(Disclaimer)
This report is issued by the Emission Standards Division of the
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards of the Environmental
Protection Agency. It presents technical data cllected through
December 1992 for the National Emission Standard for Hazardous
Air Pollutants (NESHAP), which is of interest to a limited number
of readers. It should be read in conjunction with the Economic
Impact Analysis for the Secondary Lead Smelters NESHAP (June
1994) . Both the Industry Profile and the Economic Impact
Analysis are in the public docket for the NESHAP proposal.
Copies of these reports and other material supporting the
proposal are in Docket A-92-43 at EPA's Air and Radiation Docket
and Information Center, Waterside Mall, Room M1500, Central Mall,
401 M. Street SW, Washington, D.C. 20460. The EPA may charge a
reasonable fee for copying. Copies are also available through
the National Technical Information Services, 5285 Port Royal
Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Federal employees, current
contractors and grantees, and non-profit organizations may obtain
copies from the Library Services Office (MD-35), U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency; Research Triangle Park, N.C.
27711; phone (919)541-2777.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
List of Tables ii
1.0 INTRODUCTION 1
2.0 BACKGROUND 3
2.1 SECONDARY LEAD 3
2.2 PRIMARY LEAD 9
3.0 PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY DETERMINANTS 12
4.0 CONSUMPTION AND DEMAND-SIDE FACTORS 19
4.1 END USES 19
4.2 DEMAND DETERMINANTS 24
4.3 CONSUMPTION 26
4.4 SUBSTITUTES AND DEMAND ELASTICITY 28
5.0 FOREIGN TRADE 30
6.0 PRICES AND PROFITABILITY 34
7.0 OUTLOOK 39
8.0 REFERENCES 43
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TABLE 1.
TABLE 2.
TABLE 3.
TABLE 4.
TABLE 5.
TABLE 6.
TABLE 7.
TABLE 8.
TABLE 9.
TABLE 10.
TABLE 11.
LIST OF TABLES
Page
SECONDARY LEAD SMELTERS IN THE U.S., AUGUST 1992 . . 4
U.S. LEAD PRODUCTION, 1980-1991 (Mg) 13
WORLD LEAD PRODUCTION, 1985-1990 (103 Mg) 15
U.S. SECONDARY LEAD PRODUCTION IN 1990, BY SOURCE
OF SCRAP AND TYPE OF LEAD RECOVERED (Mg) 17
U.S. REPORTED CONSUMPTION OF REFINED LEAD, BY END
USE, 1990 (Mg) -. 21
U.S. SHIPMENTS OF PRODUCTS CLASSIFIED IN SIC 3691,
STORAGE BATTERIES, 1987 25
U.S. AND WORLD CONSUMPTION OF REFINED LEAD,
1985-1991 (Mg)
27
U.S. LEAD CONSUMPTION BY END-USE INDUSTRY, 1970,
1980, 1990 29
U.S. IMPORTS (FOR CONSUMPTION) OF LEAD,
1985-1991 (Mg) 31
U.S. EXPORTS OF LEAD, 1985-1991 (Mg) 33
AVERAGE LEAD PRICES, 1980-1991 (C/lb) 35
-ll-
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PROFILE OF THE U.S. SECONDARY
LEAD SMELTING INDUSTRY
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Lead is a soft, heavy metal. Among nonferrous metals,
it is surpassed in usage only by aluminum, copper, and zinc.
Lead is highly malleable and ductile, a poor conductor of
electricity, and the most impervious to radiation and
corrosion-resistant of all common metals. While lead has
many industrial uses, the majority is consumed in the
manufacture of lead-acid storage batteries.
The United States is the world's largest producer and
consumer of lead. About 70 percent of lead output in the
U.S. is secondary (recycled) lead and about 30 percent is
primary lead. Secondary lead is recovered from lead-bearing
scrap. Most of this is old scrap, consisting of worn-out,
damaged, or obsolete products and materials. The majority
of old scrap for secondary lead production is in the form of
spent automotive batteries. Other forms of old scrap
include cable covering, pipe, sheet, type metal, and solder.
Some secondary lead is also produced from new scrap, which
consists of smelting and refining waste products such as
drosses and furnace or flue residues.
The secondary lead production process involves
collecting the scrap; separating the lead content of the
scrap (e.g., breaking batteries); smelting the lead scrap in
a blast, reverberatory, rotary, or electric furnace; and
refining the molten lead obtained from the smelting furnace.
Refined lead can be sold as pure lead (there are 20
commercial grades of pure refined lead — commonly referred
to as "soft lead" — with a minimum lead purity of 99.85%) or
can be alloyed with other metals to meet customer
specifications.1 The most common lead-base allov is
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antimonial lead, containing up to six percent antimony.
Other metals with which lead is frequently alloyed include
calcium, aluminum, and tin. While the general properties of
the 20 commercial grades of pure lead are similar, the
mechanical, thermal, and electrical properties of alloys
with less than 99 percent lead can vary considerably.2
Common cast forms for refined lead are pigs, bars,
ingots, and blocks. In addition, lead is available in
strip, rolls, sheet, foil, and many other forms. Lead is
consumed not only as a metal — either pure or alloyed with
other metals — but also as a chemical compound, primarily
oxides. Pure lead is used to manufacture the oxides of
lead. Litharge is the most common of these chemicals.
Lead-acid batteries consume both lead metal and lead oxides.
Primary lead, in contrast, is derived from lead-
containing ores, which are recovered from underground and
open-pit mines. Primary lead is produced in the U.S. not
only from ores mined primarily for their lead content, but
also from ores in which lead and zinc are co-products, and
as a by-product from ores mined chiefly for zinc, copper,
gold, silver, or fluorine.3 Missouri accounted for 79
percent of domestic lead mine production in 1990.4 After
recovery from the mine, the ores are crushed and milled into
lead concentrate, which is then sent to a smelter. At the
smelter, the concentrate is sintered and smelted in a blast
furnace to produce impure lead bullion. Impurities are then
reduced by dressing. From the smelter, the lead bullion is
sent to a refinery where remaining impurities are removed.
As in the case of secondary lead, refined primary lead
can be either sold as pure lead or alloyed with other
metals. Pure refined primary lead is, on average, more pure
than pure refined secondary lead. While primary lead
smelting-refining typically achieves 99.99 percent lead
purity, conventional secondary lead smelting-refining
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technology (i.e., excluding electrowinning and/or
electrorefining) achieves, on average, only up to 99.985
percent lead purity.5'6
Nevertheless, "refined secondary lead may be
substituted completely for primary lead in most
applications."7 Whether primary or secondary, pure refined
lead is essentially a commodity. Likewise, the alloy
products of secondary lead smelter-refineries are comparable
to those of primary lead smelter-refineries. Therefore,
primary and secondary lead producers tend to compete for the
same markets. For example, the major market for both
primary and secondary lead is automotive batteries. One
major difference, though, is that antimonial lead is made
almost exclusively by secondary producers.8
In this report, the U.S. secondary lead smelting
industry is profiled. The purpose of the profile is to
provide market information that might affect the nature and
magnitude of the economic impacts of a NESHAP for secondary
lead smelters. Since secondary lead and primary lead are
substitutable and compete for the same markets, some
information on the U.S. primary lead industry is also
provided.
2.0 INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND MARKET CHARACTERISTICS
2.1 SECONDARY LEAD
As of August 1992, 16 companies operated 23 secondary
lead smelters with a minimum annual capacity of 6,000 metric
tons in the U.S.9 The companies and facilities, along with
annual capacities, are listed in Table \. Total industry
capacity is 1,214.5 thousand metric cons per year. RSR
Corporation of Dallas, Tx. is the biggest producer, with
annual capacity of 261,000 metric tons, representing 21
percent of the industry total. RSR and the next three
biggest producers — GNB Inc., Schuylkill Metals Corporation,
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TABLE 1. SECONDARY LEAD SMELTERS IN
THE U.S., AUGUST 1992
Company
Facility
Capacity
(10* Mg/yr)
Delatte Metals
East Penn
Manufacturing Co.
Exide Corp.
Ponchatoula, LA
Lyon Station, PA
Muncie, IN
Reading, PA
-General Smelting & College Grove, TN
Refining Co.
GNB Inc.
Gopher Smelting &
Refining, Inc.
Gulf Coast
Recycling Inc.
Master Metals Inc.
Metals Control of
Oklahoma
PBX Inc.
Refined Metals
Corp.
RSR Corp.
Sanders .Lead Co.
Schuylkill Metals
Corp.
Columbus, GA
Frisco, TX
Vernon, CA
Eagan, MN
Tampa, FL
Cleveland, OH
Muskogee, OK
Norwalk, OH
Beech Grove, IN
Memphis, TN
City of Industry, CA
Indianapolis, IN
Middletown, NY
Troy, AL
Baton Rouge, LA
Forest City, MO
6.8
40.8
60.0
60.0
120.0
22.6
20.0
40.0
124.5
184.5
90.7
29.0
10.0
16.5
28.2
27.2
27.2
54.4
87.0
87.0
87.0
261.0
109.6
99.3
36.3
13'6. 1
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TABLE 1 (CONTINUED)
Capacity
Company Facility (ICr Mg/yr)
Tejas Resources, Terrell, TX 22.7
Inc.
The Doe Run Boss, MO 81.6
Company
TOTAL 1,214.5
Source: "Secondary Lead Model Plants for New Facilities
(Draft)". Memorandum from Rich Pelt, Radian
Corporation to George Streit, U.S. EPA, July 9,
1992.
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and Exide Corporation — account for 58 percent of industry
capacity.
The U.S. secondary lead industry has been marked in
recent years by numerous facility closings and openings.
Compared to the 23 smelters in August 1992, there were 43 in
1984.10 Within that period, 25 facilities closed and 5
opened. A major trend has been for small facilities to
close. In 1984, there were 11 smelters with annual capacity
less than 9,100 metric tons. All of these facilities have
shut down. One facility with an annual capacity of 6,800
metric tons (Delatte Metals, Ponchatoula, La.) has opened
since 1984.
The net change in annual industry capacity from 1984 to
1992 was -98,400 metric tons. This resulted from a loss of
501,200 metric tons from the 25 closings, a gain of 155,900
metric tons from the 5 openings, and a gain of 246,900
metric tons from plant expansions. The net decrease in
industry capacity over the past eight years has been
primarily attributable to stagnant demand, overcapacity, and
the costs of complying with environmental regulations.
There have been a number of recent facility openings
and closings. In 1989, Exide opened its facility in Muncie,
In. This was the first start-up of a large secondary lead
smelter since 1981." In 1991, The Doe Run Company opened a
facility in Boss, Mo. and Tejas Resources, Inc., a unit of
Powerlab Inc., opened a facility in Terrell, Tx. Doe Run is
one of only two primary lead producers in the U.S. With the
start-up, Doe Run became the first primary lead producer to
enter the secondary lead market (though Doe Run had
previously been purchasing scrap batteries and tolling them
elsewhere). The new facility is converted from a primary
lead facility that Doe Run formerly operated in Boss, Mo.
PBX Inc. opened its facility in Norwalk, Oh. in March 1992,
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In 1990, Exide closed its Dixie Metals Company plant in
Dallas, Tx. and Alco Pacific Inc. closed its plant in
Carson, Ca. "Environmental reasons" were cited for these
closures.12 After filing a Chapter 11 petition for
reorganization in July 1991, Interstate Lead Company shut
down its Leeds, Al. facility in March 1992. The company
cited "heavy financial costs for environmental rules."13
Also in early 1992, four facilities — Schuylkill Metals,
Baton Rouge; Refined Metals, Memphis; Gopher Smelting &
Refining, Eagan, Mn.; and Sanders Lead, Troy, Al. —
temporarily shut down a furnace. Temporary shutdowns due to
unfavorable market conditions are common in the secondary
lead industry. In this case, the shutdowns were prompted by
a squeeze on profits, resulting from a combination of low
lead prices and high scrap prices. The low lead prices were
caused by weak demand and overcapacity, while the high scrap
prices were caused by tight supplies of spent batteries.
Along with the closure of the Interstate Lead facility, the
furnace shutdowns caused annual industry capacity to
(temporarily) decline by 150,000 metric tons.
Later, in July 1992, Ross Metals Inc. shut down its
secondary lead smelting facility in Rossville, Tn. Thirty
of the plant's 36 employees were laid off. The facility had
an annual capacity of 13,200 metric tons. Reopening was
said to be "uncertain."14 The company continued to operate a
secondary lead smelter in Reynosa, Mexico, across the border
from McAllen, Tx.
In addition to the facilities listed in Table 1, the
U.S. Bureau of Mines defines the U.S. secondary lead
industry to have included, at the end of 1990, "21 small
companies with 22 plants of less than 1,000 tons per year of
capacity ... producing mainly specialty alloys."15 These
small facilities account for only about 1 percent of
secondary lead production.'6 In addition to these small
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facilities, the Bureau of Mines identified, at the end of
1990, 15 companies operating 22 battery breaker-smelters
with capacities from 6,000 to 110,000 metric tons per year,
and 6 smaller operations that do not process batteries with
capacities from 6,000 to 10,000 metric tons per year.
Only two secondary lead producers are publicly owned.17
They are GNB, which is a subsidiary of Pacific Dunlop
Limited, an Australian company, and Doe Run, which is a
subsidiary of Fluor Corporation. In 1990, Schuylkill Metals
was acquired by a Citicorp investor group, permitting the
recapitalization of its two plants.18 Powerlab Inc., the
parent of Tejas Resources, has been operating under Chapter
11 protection from its creditors.
The facility locations in Table 1 indicate that the
U.S. secondary lead industry is geographically dispersed.
However, all but two smelters are located east of the Rocky
Mountains. Because spent batteries are heavy and therefore
expensive to ship, smelters are located to serve regional
markets, usually near large population centers.19 Such
factors as scrap availability and labor costs can vary
considerably from region to region. Secondary lead
producers are said to vary considerably not only with
respect to regional market conditions, but also with respect
to finished products, size (e.g., production capacity), and
degree of vertical integration.20
Estimated sales of the four largest secondary lead
producers in 1991 ranged from $45 million for Schuylkill
Metals to $750 million for Exide.21 Estimated employment was
330 at Schuylkill Metals and 5,000 at Exide. These figures
reflect company-wide operations, not just secondary lead
production, however. Exide, for example, is a major battery
producer. A significant portion of its sales and employment
are attributable to battery production. The other secondary
lead producers that manufacture batteries are East Penn
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Manufacturing and GNB. Total employment at U.S. secondary
lead smelters and refineries in 1991 was estimated to be
1,700.22
Vertical integration in the U.S. secondary lead
industry is not limited to cases in which batteries are
produced downstream. For example, Powerlab produces lead
oxide downstream from its new Tejas Resources secondary
smelter. And, as mentioned, the majority of secondary lead
smelters also have battery breaking operations. This
represents backward integration with processing of the scrap
fed to the smelting operations.
With the start-up of its Boss, Mo. secondary smelter,
Doe Run became the first U.S. company to be horizontally
integrated as a producer of both primary and secondary lead.
This type of integration is more common overseas.23
Even though the top four secondary lead producers
account for 58 percent of domestic capacity, the industry is
highly competitive. This was evidenced by the "bidding war"
waged by secondary l^ad producers for tight scrap battery
supplies in early 1992, despite depressed lead prices.24
U.S. secondary lead producers compete not only among each
other, but also with domestic primary lead producers and
overseas producers.
2.2 PRIMARY LEAD
Like the U.S. secondary lead industry, the U.S. primary
lead industry underwent retrenchment in the 1980s. Refined
primary lead capacity was 715,000 metric tons per year in
1981. Since then, however, Bunker Hill shut down a smelter-
refinery in Kellogg, Id. (in 1981); Asarco shut down a
smelter in El Paso, Tx.; Doe Run closed a smelter-refinery
in Boss, Mo., replacing it with a secondary lead facility
(in 1991); and Doe Run cut annual capacity at its
Herculaneum, Mo, smelter-refinery by 54,000 metric tons (in
April 1991) . As the industry is presently structured, Doe
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Run operates the Herculaneum smelter-refinery and Asarco
operates a smelter-refinery in Glover, Mo.; a custom smelter
in East Helena, Mt.; and a refinery in Omaha, Ne. The Omaha
refinery receives bullion from the East Helena smelter.
Herculaneum's annual refined lead capacity is estimated to
be 159,000 metric tons and Asarco's combined annual refined
lead capacity is estimated to be 181,000 metric tons.25
Total industry capacity is therefore 340,000 metric tons per
year, down 52 percent from 1981. The retrenchment in the
past decade has been mainly due to stagnant lead
consumption, worldwide overcapacity, low lead prices, and
the costs of environmental regulations.
Before the capacity cutbacks in 1991, the U.S. had
525,000 metric tons of annual primary lead smelting capacity
and 605,000 metric tons of annual primary lead refining
capacity.26 Worldwide, smelting capacity was 4,490,000
metric tons and refining capacity was 4,560,000 metric tons
at the end of 1990. Therefore, the U.S. accounted at the
end of 1990 .for 12 percent of world smelting capacity and 13
percent of world refining capacity.
Doe Run and Asarco are integrated producers of primary
lead, as they produce lead ores and concentrates for their
smelting and refining operations. Of the top nine lead-
producing mines in the U.S. in 1990, five were operated by
Doe Run and two by Asarco.27 The other two were operated by
Cominco Ltd., a Canadian company (one of these was co-owned
by Dresser Industries Inc.) While Doe Run's mines and mills
supply all of Herculaneum's needs for lead ores and
concentrates, about one-half of Asarco's lead metal
production in 1990 was from its own mines (the other half
was either custom-produced or tolled). However, "at year
end it was estimated that the company had an approximately
35 percent captive domestic capability if its own mine
production were fully optimized."28
10
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The two U.S. primary lead producers are more
integrated, on average, than their overseas competitors.29
This is because unlike the U.S., many mine-producing areas
are not a major market for consumption. Mine output in many
areas therefore tends to be exported. For example, in
Europe, where refined lead production exceeds lead mine
output, many lead producers have contracts with overseas
mines and smelters.
In 1983, there were 39 lead-producing mines in 11
states in the U.S.30 In 1990, the top 15 mines accounted for
over 99 percent of lead output.31 Included in these top 15
were 8 mines in Missouri, 2 in Alaska, 2 in Idaho, 2 in
Colorado, and 1 in Montana. Annual U.S. lead mine
production capacity at the end of 1990 was 759,000 metric
tons.32 This was an increase of 79,000 metric tons from the
year before. The increase is primarily attributable to the
opening in February 1990 of Cominco's Red Dog mine in
Alaska, which is projected to have a contained-lead (it also
produces zinc and silver) capacity of 70,000 metric tons per
year.33 Total world lead mine production capacity at the end
of 1990 was 4,185,000 metric tons. The U.S. therefore
accounted for 18 percent of worldwide capacity.
The reserve base (includes reserves that are currently
economic, marginally economic, and subeconomic) of lead in
ores in the U.S. is estimated to be 22 million metric tons.34
The worldwide reserve base is estimated to be 120 million
metric tons. Australia leads with 26 million metric tons.
Other countries with significant reserve bases include
Canada with 13 million metric tons, the former republics of
the Soviet Union with 12 million metric tons, and China with
9 million metric tons.
The Doe Run Company is a subsidiary of the highly
diversified Fluor Corporation. Previously, Doe Run was
jointly owned by Fluor and Homes-take Mining Company.
11
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However, in 1990, Fluor purchased Homestake's 42.5 percent
share in Doe Run for $125 million. Asarco is a diversified,
multinational mining and minerals company. Both Fluor and
Asarco are publicly owned.
Total employment in 1991 at U.S. primary lead smelters
and refineries was estimated to be 700.35 Peak lead mine and
mill employment was estimated to be 2,300.
3.0 PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY DETERMINANTS
Secondary lead is classified in SIC 33413, Lead
Smelting and Refining, Secondary. SIC 33413 is a subset of
SIC 3341, Secondary Smelting and Refining of Nonferrous
Metals. Total shipments in 1987 of all products classified
in SIC 33413 were $519.2 million.36
Lead production in the U.S. from 1980 to 1991 is shown
in Table 2. After falling from higher levels in the early
1980s, recoverable lead mine output has increased since
1987. The increase of 63,077 metric tons from 1989 to 1990
is attributable to the start-up in 1990 of Cominco's Red Dog
mine in Alaska, at which 61,700 metric tons of lead were
produced in 1990. Output at Red Dog was expected to be
90,000 metric tons in 1991, but total recoverable lead mine
output in the U.S. was down slightly in 1991 from 1990, in
large part due to the closure by Doe Run of two mines in
Missouri.37
Missouri produced 372,383 metric tons of recoverable
lead from mines in 1990.38 This represented 79 percent of
the nationwide total of 473,992 metric tons. Alaska,
Colorado, Idaho, and Montana accounted for another 18
percent. Over 99 percent of recoverable lead mine output
came from the top 15 mines, and 90 percent came from the top
three producers — Doe Run, Asarco, and Cominco.
After increasing gradually since 1986, primary lead
production dipped in 1991. The decline can be traced to a
12
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TABLE 2. U.S. LEAD PRODUCTION, 1980-1991 (Mg)
Recoverable
lead content
in ores
(from mines) Primary
1991 (preliminary)
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
465,931
473,992
410,915
384,983
311,381
339,793
413,955
322,677
449,295
512,516
445,535
550,366
345,714
403,657
396,455
392,087
373,610
370,288
494,003
389,398
519,167
512,160
495,323
547,590
Refined lead
Secondary
883,700
922,911
891,341
736,401
710,067
624,769
615,695
633,374
503,501
571,276
641,105
675,578
% Secondary
71.9%
69.6%
69.2%
65.3%
65.5%
62.8%
55.5%
61.9%
49.2%
52.7%
56.4%
55.2%
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Mines, "Mineral Industry Surveys: Lead Industry in
April and May 1992" and "Annual Report 1990: Lead;" and American
Metal Market. "Metal Statistics 1990-91."
13
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decrease in output at Doe Run's Herculaneum, Mo. facility
from about 218,000 metric tons in 1990 to about 145,000
metric tons in 1991.39 This was the result of a permanent
capacity reduction. Primary lead production has dropped
from levels of the 1970s and early 1980s. The high year was
1972, in which 617,248 metric tons of primary lead were
produced.
Secondary lead production reached all-time highs in
1989 and 1990 (the previous record-high was 801,368 metric
tons in 1979) before slipping to 883,700 metric tons in
1991. The increase in secondary lead output throughout much
of the 1980s is in part due to the decreasing importance of
dissipative uses such as tetraethyl lead (previously a
gasoline antiknock additive, before its use was phased out).
A greater percentage of lead is now consumed in products
that are recyclable. Additional impetus was provided in the
late 1980s by stricter battery disposal and recycling laws,
which make more lead scrap available for secondary
production. At year-end 1991, 37 states had strict battery
disposal and/or mandatory recycling laws, and 6 states had
legislation pending.40 Along with the increase in secondary
lead production in the 1980s, note in Table 2 that secondary
lead production as a percent of total refined lead output —
both secondary and primary — also increased. Secondary lead
now accounts for over 70 percent of total refined lead
production in the U.S.
As a result of the production drop in 1991 and the
facility start-ups in 1991 by Doe Run and Tejas Resources,
average secondary lead capacity utilization declined from 90
percent in 1990 to 82 percent in 1991.41-42
Table 3 captures some trends in worldwide lead
production from 1985 to 1990. While lead mine and primary
lead output declined slightly from 1985 to 1990, secondary
lead output increased by 19 percent. The contribution of
14
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TABLE 3. WORLD LEAD PRODUCTION, 1985-1990 (103 Mg)
Lead content
in concen-
trates (from
Refined lead
1990
(estimate)
1989
(prelim-
inary)
1988
1987
1986
1985
mines)
3,367b
3,368
3,430
3,425
3,345
3,431
Primary"
3,214C
3,285
3,246
3,194
3,191
3,357
Secondary
2,728d
2,702
2,604
2,524
2,361
2,284
% Secondary
45.9%
45.1%
44.5%
44.1%
42.5%
40.5%
"Includes secondary lead if inseparably included in country
total,
bLeading producer nations include, in 103 Mg: Australia, 563;
United States, 495; U.S.S.R., 450; China, 315; Canada, 236.
'Leading producer nations include, in 103 Mg: U.S.S.R., 420;
United States, 404; China, 235; Australia, 212; Japan, 205;
Germany, 199.
dLeading producer nations include, in 103 Mg: United States, 923;
U.S.S.R., 280; United Kingdom, 200; Germany, 198; Japan, 124;
France, 110; Italy, 100.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Mines, "Annual Report 1990: Lead" and
"Minerals Yearbook 1989: Lead."
15
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secondary lead to overall refined lead output increased from
40.5 percent to 45.9 percent. This is a lower contribution
than in the U.S. There are two major reasons for this.43
First, the U.S. is relatively dependent on the automobile,
the batteries for which are the most important source of
scrap to the secondary lead industry. Secondly, the rest of
the world consumes more lead in chemicals, a dissipative use
that cannot be recycled.
The leading lead producer nations are listed in the
footnotes to Table 3. The U.S. is by far the top secondary
lead producing nation, accounting for 34 percent of world
output in 1990. In comparison, the U.S. accounted for 15
percent of world lead mine output and 13 percent of world
primary lead output. Note that U.S. output of lead content
in concentrates was 495,000 metric tons in 1990, while the
recoverable lead content in ores in 1990 was stated in Table
2 to be 473,992 metric tons. The difference follows from
the fact that not all lead in concentrate is recoverable (on
average, about 95% is recoverable).
The major determinant of the supply of secondary lead
is the availability of scrap. The majority of lead scrap
derives from lead-acid storage batteries. This is
demonstrated in Table 4. Of total secondary lead output of
922,911 metric tons in 1990, 783,860 metric tons, or 85
percent, were recovered from spent batteries. Table 4 also
shows that soft lead accounted for 50 percent, and
antimonial lead for 46 percent, of all lead recovered (i.e.,
of all secondary lead produced).
The availability of scrap for secondary lead production
is contingent on such factors as the amount of prior
consumption of lead-bearing goods, the durability of lead-
bearing goods, the weather, the incentive to recycle,
environmental risks, and competition from foreign markets.
16
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TABLE 4. U.S. SECONDARY LEAD PRODUCTION IN 1990,
BY SOURCE OF SCRAP AND TYPE OF LEAD RECOVERED (Mg)
Source of Scrap:
New scrap
Lead-base 43,608
Copper-base 5,000 (estimate)
Tin-base 4
Old scrap
Battery lead 783,860
Other lead-base 79,439
Copper-base 11.OOP (estimate)
Total 922,911
Type of lead recovered:
Soft lead4 461,868
Antimonial lead 425,979
Other lead-base alloys6 19,060
Copper-base alloys 16,000 (estimate)
Tin-base alloys 4
Total 922,911
"Includes a small amount of remelt lead.
''Mostly solder, but also lead-base babbit (530 Mg) , type
metal (868 Mg), cable lead (amount unknown), and other
alloys.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Mines, "Annual Report 1990: Lead."
17
-------
Consumption of lead-bearing goods affects the supply of lead
scrap with a lag. For example, low consumption in 1991 has
been blamed for tight scrap supplies in 1992.M The weather
has a major effect on the rate of automotive battery
replacement. Extreme temperature fluctuations — cold
winters and hot summers — increase the replacement rate. In
June and July of 1992, for example, scrap tightness began to
alleviate as warm temperatures increased scrap battery
supplies.45
The incentive to recycle has increased significantly in
the past several years as many states have instituted strict
battery disposal and recycling laws, including, for example,
mandatory point-of-sale battery exchanges. As a result,
97.8 percent of all spent lead-acid storage batteries were
recycled in 1990, up from 88.6 percent in 1987 and 95.3
percent in 1989.46>47 While only 77.7 million batteries were
available for recycling in 1987, 85.6 million were available
in 1989.48 Batteries are recycled in the U.S. at a higher
rate than any other material, including plastic, paper,
glass, and aluminum.49
Environmental risk has recently emerged as a factor in
the availability of lead scrap. Specifically, under CERCLA,
scrap dealers and processors (who are middlemen in the
supply of scrap to secondary lead producers) can be named by
EPA as "potentially responsible parties" (PRPs) for clean-up
costs at Superfund battery-breaking sites to which they have
shipped lead-acid batteries. The Institute of Scrap
Recycling Industries estimates that more than half of its
1,800 members have been named as PRPs at one or more of
about 20 Superfund sites contaminated by lead-acid
batteries.50 This has resulted in a growing reluctance by
scrap dealers and processors to handle lead-acid batteries.
More batteries ara also being exported to countries such as
Canada and the Philippines, where hazardous waste clean-up
18
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liability is not as broadly defined as in the U.S. In
response to this growing problem, RSR Corporation announced
in February 1992 that it is willing to indemnify battery
suppliers against potential Superfund liabilities arising at
any of its three secondary lead plants.51 The value of this
assurance is uncertain, however.
Finally, domestic secondary lead smelters must compete
for lead scrap with foreign secondary smelters. Such
competition can create regional differences in scrap
availability. For example, the Northeast faces competition
from Canada and the West faces competition from the Far East
and Mexico.52 In August 1992, RSR was only able to operate
its smelter in City of Industry, Ca. at 70 percent of
capacity because of a shortage of spent batteries on the
West Coast.53 RSR's two other smelters in Indianapolis and
Middletown, N.Y., in contrast, were operating at 100 percent
of capacity.
4.0 CONSUMPTION AND DEMAND-SIDE FACTORS
4.1 END USES
Lead is consumed in a number of industries, including
building construction, ammunition, electronic and electrical
equipment, power and communications equipment, packaging,
chemicals, and paints. However, by far the biggest end-use
industry is transportation, which comprises about three-
quarters of lead demand. In turn, storage batteries account
for the great majority of the demand for lead in the
transportation sector. Overall, storage batteries (for
which some applications are not in transportation) accounted
for 80 percent of U.S. lead consumption in 1990, up from 43
percent in 1970 and 60 percent in 1980.M
Secondary lead has a symbiotic relationship with
storage batteries that is unique to recycled products. Not
only are spent batteries the main source of feed for
secondary lead smelting, but batteries are also the major
19
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marketing outlet for secondary lead. While storage
batteries are the leading end use of both secondary and
primary lead, a greater percentage of secondary output goes
to storage batteries than primary output (i.e., secondary
lead is more reliant on storage batteries),55
A distribution of the end uses of lead in 1990 is
presented in Table 5. The 80-percent contribution of
storage batteries to overall lead consumption is seen
(1,019,637 out of 1,275,233 metric tons). In 1990, storage
batteries consumed 80 percent of all soft lead, 81 percent
of all lead in antimonial lead, 83 percent of all lead in
other alloys, and no lead in copper-base scrap. The second
biggest end use in 1990 was shot and bullets (58,210 metric
tons, or 4.6% of total demand). Transportation applications
other than storage batteries include bearing metals (e.g.,
to balance motor vehicle wheels), terne metal for fuel
tanks, solder and filler, and gasoline antiknock additives
(though this use is being phased out).
There are numerous uses in construction. For example,
sheet lead is used as a sound dampener and, because lead is
the most impervious to radiation of all common metals, as
protection from x-rays and nuclear radiation. This includes
applications in hospital x-ray rooms and in both permanent
and portable structures containing nuclear materials (e.g.,
nuclear reactors). Other construction applications include
solder, glass windows, and bearing pads in the foundations
of large structures for vibration dampening. Lead is also
used in roofing, flashing, piping, and calking, though these
uses have diminished in recent years.
A major application in the power and communications
equipment industry is cable sheathing. Lead protects
underground and underwater cables from corrosion and damage
from moisture. Packaging applications include foil and
20
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TABLE 5. U.S. REPORTED CONSUMPTION OF REFINED
LEAD, BY END USE, 1990 (Mg)
Soft
lead
Lead in
antimonial
lead
Lead in
other
alloys
Lead in
copper-
base
scrap
Total
Metal Products
Shot and bullets
(ammunition)
Bearing metals"
Brass and bronze
Cable covering11
Calking leadc
Casting metalsd
Pipes, traps,
other extruded
products6
Sheet leadf
Solder8
Terne metalh
Other'
Total
66,523
64,617
20,395 7,216
58,210
2,878
9,943
18,253
1,688
14,843
9,281
21,013
16,490
2,341
3.812
158,751
Storage batteries
Grids, post, etc.
Oxides
Total
624,241 279,571
115,825
571,187
448.450
1,019,637
21
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TABLE 5. (CONTINUED)
Other oxidesj
Misc.k
Grand Total
Soft
lead
56,484
35,899
783,147
Lead in
antimonial
lead
-
1,109
345,297
Lead in
other
alloys
-
3,353
139,573
Lead in
copper-
base
scrap
-
-
7,216
Total
56,484
40,361
1,275,233
"Mostly for motor vehicles and motor vehicle equipment.
bFor power and communications equipment.
cFor the building construction industry.
dlncludes nuclear radiation shielding.
'Mostly for the building construction industry.
fMostly for the building construction industry. Includes medical radiation
shielding.
8Major end-use industries include building construction, electronic
components and accessories, and motor vehicles and motor vehicle
equipment.
hFor motor vehicles and motor vehicle equipment.
'Includes type metal and lead consumed in foil, collapsible tubes,
annealing, galvanizing, plating, and fishing weights.
JUsed in paints, glass and ceramics products, and other pigments and
chemicals.
klncludes gasoline additives.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Mines, "Annual Report 1990: Lead."
22
-------
sheet to protect X-ray film and certain radioactive
materials, and collapsible tubes for pastes and artists'
colors. Lead is used to make type metal for printing. Lead
oxides, in addition to their major use in storage batteries,
are used to protect process vessels and other storage
containers against corrosive chemicals such as sulfuric
acid; in protective coatings to make steel structures
corrosion-resistant; and to impart brilliance, clarity, and
other properties to glass, porcelain enamel, ceramics, and
crystal. Color TV tubes account for the majority of lead
consumption in glass and ceramics.
There are four main kinds of storage batteries that
consume lead:
1. Starting-lighting-ignition (SLI) batteries for
motor vehicles (mainly automobiles) and other
vehicles such as ships and aircraft.
2. Motive power, or traction, batteries for
industrial electric vehicles such as forklifts,
airport tugs, and mining equipment.
3. Uninterruptible-power-supply (UPS) batteries
designed to ensure constant voltage for, for
example, hospitals, computer networks, and
telecommunications systems.
4. Standby-power-supply (SBS) batteries for emergency
lighting and some telephone systems.
SLI batteries are the biggest lead consumer. Of the
1,019,637 metric tons of lead consumed by storage batteries
in 1990 (see Table 5), about 808,000 metric tons went to SLI
batteries; 172,000 metric tons to traction, UPS, and SBS
batteries; and 40,000 metric tons to miscellaneous specialty
batteries (including some consumer batteries).-6 Together,
23
-------
UPS and SBS batteries accounted for about twice as much lead
consumption as traction batteries.
Shipments in 1987 of products classified in SIC 3691,
Storage Batteries, are shown in Table 6 (1987 is the last
year for which value of shipments is available). Shipments
of lead-acid batteries totalled $2,677.9 million, compared
to $340.5 million for batteries that are not lead-acid (this
excludes "storage batteries not specified by kind"). SLI
batteries accounted for 85 percent of total shipments of
lead-acid storage batteries, excluding those that are not
specified by kind. Also notable is that 77 percent of SLI
shipments were replacement batteries and 23 percent were
original-equipment (OEM) batteries. While SLI batteries are
all 1.5 cubic feet and smaller, traction batteries and SBS
batteries (and presumably UPS batteries) are all larger than
1.5 cubic feet.
4.2 DEMAND DETERMINANTS
Automobiles are generally used under all economic
conditions. Therefore, the demand for lead from automotive
replacement batteries, which account for over half of lead
consumption, is shielded from fluctuations in the business
cycle. Other components of lead demand — OEM batteries,
industrial (traction, UPS, SBS) batteries, and non-battery
uses — are cyclical, however. The demand for industrial
batteries, -for example, depends on capital spending, which
is linked to the business cycle. The recession in 1991 is
said to have affected all lead end-use markets apart from
automotive replacement batteries.57
The demand for lead from automotive batteries depends
greatly on the replacement rate, which increases with
extreme temperatures in the summer and winter. Replacement
battery demand is seasonal, as battery producers gear up in
the fall for winter demand. In addition, retailers and
24
-------
TABLE 6. U.S. SHIPMENTS OF PRODUCTS CLASSIFIED
IN SIC 3691, STORAGE BATTERIES, 1987
Product
Shipments
($ million)
Percent of
total
shipments
Lead-acid storage batteries
1.5 ft.3 and smaller
Starting, lighting, and ignition
(SLI)
Original equipment
Replacement
Not specified by kind
Greater than 1.5 ft3
Starting, lighting, and ignition
(SLI)
Other than SLI
Motive power
508.6
1,722.1
28.8
"Includes mining and industrial locomotion.
blncludes railway diesel starting batteries.
"'Percentages do not add to 100% due to rounding.
15.9%
53.9%
0.9%
Industrial truck
Other3
Standby emergency power/other15
Not specified by kind
Other than lead-acid storage
batteries
Nickel-cadmium
Other than nickel-cadmium/parts
for all storage batteries
Not specified by kind
Storage batteries not specified by
kind
TOTALC
91.8
15.5
294.4
16.7
254.7
81.3
4.5
176.3
3,194.7
2.9%
0.5%
9.2%
0.5%
8.0%
2.5%
0.1%
5.5%
.Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census,
Series. ''
'1987 Census of Manufactures: industry
25
-------
vehicle fleet operators stock up on batteries in the fall in
anticipation of winter demand. Exide, for example, sells
two-thirds of its batteries from August to December.58 The
demand for lead from automotive batteries — both replacement
and OEM — also depends on the lead content of batteries.
The use of high-performance batteries, which contain more
lead, has been increasing. The typical automotive battery
contained about 22 pounds of lead in 1990, compared to about
19 pounds in 1986.59 Finally, automotive-battery lead demand
depends on the motor vehicle population, which has been
growing in the U.S. by about 1-2 percent per year.60
4.3 CONSUMPTION
U.S. and world consumption of refined lead from 1985 to
1991 are shown in Table 7. Both U.S. and world consumption
increased from 1985 to 1989 before decreasing in 1990 and
1991. Although U.S. lead consumption gradually increased in
the 1980s to the peak of 1,277,604 metric tons in 1989, some
years in the 1970s recorded higher levels. The gradual
increase in consumption in the 1980s was achieved despite
phase-downs in the use of lead solder, lead-base paints
(already eliminated in interior house paints), and lead-base
gasoline antiknock additives.
World consumption, on the other hand, recorded an all-
time high of almost 6.1 million metric tons in 1989 after
increasing for seven consecutive years at an average annual
rate of 2.3 percent.61 Lead demand in the rest of the world
is less dependent on storage batteries than in the U.S.
While, as discussed, storage batteries consume 80 percent of
all lead in the U.S., they consume 62-63 percent of all lead
in the entire Western World.62
A considerable part of the decline in world lead demand
in 1990 was attributable to lower consumption in the former
U.S.S.R. and Eastern Europe, which underwent political and
26
-------
TABLE 7. U.S. AND WORLD CONSUMPTION OF
REFINED LEAD, 1985-1991 (Mg)
U.S.1
Worldb
U.S. share
of world
consumption
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1,246,300
(preliminary)
1,275,233
1,277,604
1,245,170
1,230,373
1,125,521
1,148,298
5,800,000
(approxi-
mation)
5,896,000
(estimate)
6,062,000
(preliminary)
5,856,000
5,681,000
5,603,000
5,587,000
21.5%
21.6%
21.1%
21.3%
21.7%
20.1%
20.6%
"Reported consumption.
^Apparent consumption (refinery production minus change in
stocks).
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Mines, "Mineral Commodity Summaries
1992," "Mineral Industry Surveys: Lead Industry in
April and May 1992," "Annual Report 1990: Lead,"
and "Minerals Yearbook 1989: Lead."
27
-------
economic reorganization.63 The declines in both U.S. and
world lead consumption in 1991, on the other hand, resulted
from the general recession. In the U.S., the recession
particularly affected the automotive and construction
industries. According to Battery Council International, SLI
OEM battery shipments declined from 12.1 million units in
1990 to 10.7 in 1991.M However, total SLI battery
consumption was unchanged at 77.3 million units, as
replacement battery shipments increased from 65.2 to 66.6
million units due to a very hot summer in 1991.
Table 8 shows how the distribution of lead consumption
by end-use industry has changed over the past two decades.
The biggest change has been the decline, due to a mandatory
phase-out, of the use of lead in gasoline antiknock
additives. In 1970, gasoline additives, primarily
tetraethyl lead, accounted for over 20 percent of total lead
consumption in the U.S. This use has been virtually
eliminated. Also notable are the declining share of
construction applications (uses in roofing, flashing,
piping, and calking have been diminished) and the increasing
share of transportation applications (mainly batteries).
4.4 SUBSTITUTES AND DEMAND ELASTICITY
Lead faces competition from alternative materials —
namely other metals and plastics — in a number of
applications. Lead is no longer used in interior house
paints and has been essentially replaced in exterior house
paints by titanium and zinc pigments.65 Substitution of
.plastics has reduced the use of lead in building
construction, cable covering, and cans and containers.66
Lead also competes in construction with other metals such as
galvanized steel, copper, and aluminum. Tin has almost
completely replaced lead in solder for new and replacement
drinking water systems. Metal-based alternatives to lead-
28
-------
TABLE 8. U.S. LEAD CONSUMPTION BY END-USE
INDUSTRY, 1970, 1980, 1990
Apparent consumption
of refined
lead (103 Mg)
End-use
industry
Ammunition
Construction
Electrical
Gasoline
additives
Oxides and
chemicals
Transporta-
tion
Other
Totalb
1990
(est.)
58
34
143
W/H
57
950
55
1,297
1980
49
37
70
128
78
640
63
1,065
1970
66
90
80
253"
90
560
89
1,228
Percent of
total consumption
1990
(est.)
4.5%
2.6%
11.0%
W/H
4.4%
73.2%
4.2%
1980
4.6%
3.5%
6.6%
12.0%
7.3%
60.1%
5.9%
1970
5.4%
7.3%
6.5%
20.6%
7.3%
45.6%
7.2%
W/H Withheld to avoid disclosing proprietary company
information, but included in "other."
"Record high.
bPercentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Mines, "Annual Report 1990: Lead."
29
-------
acid batteries have been studied. While they can supply the
same power, they tend to be more costly and have less-
favorable recycling economics.67
As a result of strict environmental and health
regulations, many nonessential uses of lead have been weeded
out in the past couple decades. Additional substitution of
alternative materials is likely to be limited unless there
is significant economic incentive (e.g., even stricter
regulations, or much higher lead prices) to do so. This
suggests that the demand for lead is relatively price-
inelastic.
This does not necessarily mean that domestic producers
can increase lead prices with impunity (i.e., without a
significant attendant drop in output), however. Lead, is an
internationally traded commodity whose price is determined
by global market factors. In a global context, the lead
market is competitive. Domestic producers act as price
takers, constrained to set prices that are in line with the
international exchange (London Metal Exchange, or LME)
price, tariffs, and shipping cost differentials. If prices
were increased so that they were out of line, market share
could be lost to foreign suppliers (i.e., there is a high
import elasticity of supply). The ability of domestic
secondary lead smelters to increase prices without losing
market share would ultimately depend, however, on the terms
of the long-term contracts that they — especially the large-
capacity plants — tend to have with battery producers.68
5.0 FOREIGN TRADE
U.S. imports of lead from 1985 to 1991 are shown in
Table 9. While there are no noticeable trends in imports of
lead in ores and concentrates and imports of lead in
bullion, imports of unwrought lead from 1989 to 1991 were
lower than in any of the prior four years, imports of
wrought lead have been increasing, and imports of lead scrap
30
-------
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have been diminishing. Footnote "f indicates that Canada
supplies the bulk of U.S. imports of unwrought lead.
Imports of lead in ores and concentrates, lead in bullion,
unwrought lead, and lead scrap in 1991 (129,446 metric tons)
accounted for 10 percent of U.S. consumption that year
(1,246,300 metric tons). As of January 1, 1992, the U.S. ad
valorem import tariff was 3 percent (but not to be less than
2.3424 C/kg) for unwrought lead from countries with Most-
Favored-Nation status and 10 percent for unwrought lead from
other countries.69
U.S. exports of lead from 1985 to 1991 are shown in
Table 10. Exports of lead in ores and concentrates have
shot up since 1987. A big boost was given by the start-up
in 1990 of Cominco's Red Dog mine in Alaska. All of Red
Dog's output — which is projected to reach 70,000 metric
tons of contained lead annually — is exported to Canada and
the Far East.70 Exports of lead materials (i.e., unwrought
lead, wrought lead, ash and residues) have also grown
tremendously since 1987. In 1991, exports of lead in ores
and concentrates accounted for 19 percent of domestic
recoverable lead mine output (465,931 metric tons), compared
to only 3 percent in 1987. Exports of lead materials
accounted for 9 percent of total lead refinery (primary and
secondary) output in 1991 (1,229,414 metric tons), compared
to only a little over 1 percent in 1987.
Exports of lead scrap have also increased as of late,
reaching an all-time high of 93,262 metric tons in 1991.
Exports compete with domestic secondary lead production for
scrap supplies. The allocation of lead scrap to the export:
and domestic markets depends in part on comparative prices.
The recent surge in lead scrap exports is largely due to the
growing reluctance of domestic scrap dealers and processors
to ship lead scrap in the U.S. because of potential
32
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TABLE 10. U.S. EXPORTS OF LEAD, 1985-1991 (Mg)
Lead
Lead in materials,
ores and excluding
concentrates scrap" Lead scrap
1991*
(preliminary)
1990*
1989*
1988
1987
1986
1985
87,953
56,600b
57,038
20,902
8,764
4,380
9,987
113,872
76,749C
43,837
29,077
13,586
19,778
37,322
93,262
75,507d
59,909
81,910
52,823
N.A.
N.A.
N.A. Not available.
*Not necessarily comparable to 1988 and before due to the
implementation of the Harmonized Tariff System in January 1989.
"Comprises the lead content of both wrought (blocks, pigs,
anodes, etc., including bullion) and unwrought (sheets, foil,
wire, powder, flakes, etc.) lead and lead alloys, and the lead
content of ash and residues (e.g., drosses).
""Leading foreign destinations are Canada, 19,484 Mg and Belgium,
17,346 Mg.
C57,226 Mg unwrought lead, 6,759 Mg wrought lead, and 12,765 Mg
ash and residues. Leading foreign destinations are South Korea,
14,488 Mg; Belgium, 11,684 Mg; and Taiwan, 11,553 Mg.
dLeading foreign destinations are Canada, 34,497 Mg and Mexico,
9,361 Mg.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Mines, "Mineral Industry Surveys: Lead
Industry in April and May 1992," "Annual Report 1990:
Lead," and "Minerals Yearbook 1989: Lead."
33
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Superfund liability exposure, and the Free Trade Agreement
with Canada, the largest export market.71
In 1991, the U.S. imported 12.8 million lead-acid
batteries, down from 14.1 million in 1990 (though only 4.6
million units were imported in 1983),72 Japan, Taiwan,
Mexico, and South Korea accounted for 92 percent of the
total. Lead-acid battery exports increased from about 4.1
million units in 1990 to 5.3 million units in 1991.
6.0 PRICES AND PROFITABILITY
Commodity prices are notoriously volatile. Lead is no
exception. The wide variation in the price of lead over the
past twelve years is demonstrated in Table 11. After
bottoming out in 1985, lead prices began an ascent that
climaxed in 1990 with an average North American producer
price of 46.0 0/lb and an average LME price of 37.1 0/lb.
The ascent was due primarily to increasing demand (evidenced
in Table 7) and capacity rationalizations in prior years.
In March 1990, production problems at a primary smelter in
Italy precipitated an all-time high of 59.8 0/lb for the LME
lead price (the North American producer price reached 65
0/lb in March 1990, 2 0/lb below the record high in December
1979) . In April 1990, supply concerns abated and the LME
price fell to around 45 0/lb.73 Lead prices were
significantly lower in 1991 than in 1990 owing to weak
demand, fewer production disruptions, and increased
production capacity resulting from facility openings.
Lead prices remained depressed in the first few months
of 1992 before starting to pick up in late May. On May 28,
1992, the LME lead price was 23.26 0/lb. By August 13, it
had increased 28 percent to 29.70 0/lb.74 Meanwhile, the
North American producer price increased from 33 0/lb in
February and March to 40 0/lb in August.75 Prices were low
in the early part of the year due to excess supply,
resulting mainly from depressed demand and heavy exports
34
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TABLE 11. AVERAGE LEAD PRICES, 1980-1991 (C/lb)
Metals Week
North
American
producer list
price,
delivered LME pure lead
basis cash price Difference
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
33.5
46.0
39.4
37.1
35.9
22.0
19.1
25.6
21.7
25.5
36.5
42.4
25.3
37.1
30.6
29.7
27.0
18.4
17.8
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
' N.A.
N.A.
8.2
8.9
8.8
7.4
8.9
3.6
1.3
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A. Not available.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Mines, "Mineral Industry Surveys:
Lead Industry in April and May 1992," "Annual
Report 1990: Lead," and "Minerals Yearbook 1989:
Lead."
35
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from the former U.S.S.R. Capacity rationalizations
contributed to the price run-up in June and July.
Additional impetus to rising prices was provided in August
by a strike at Doe Run's primary lead smelter in
Herculaneum, Mo., which threatened to restrict supplies.
The beginning of the seasonal demand for batteries also
helped to lift prices.
Note in Table 11 that the spread between the North
American producer price of lead and the LME lead price
averaged between 8 and 9 C/lb from 1989 to 1991. By August
13, 1992, the spread had increased to 10.3 C/lb (40 C/lb
versus 29.7 C/lb). This does not necessarily mean that lead
prices in North America outpaced the LME lead price,
however, as the North American producer price is a list
price, and discounting is the norm. In fact, two U.S. lead
producers — one primary and one secondary — are known to
link their prices to the LME price. Effective August 1,
1992, Asarco was charging a premium of 5 C/lb over the LME
cash settlement price.76 Prior to August 1, the premium was
4.75 C/lb. Early in the year, the premium was 4.5 C/lb.
RSR Corporation charges what it calls a "four-corners
premium," based on the LME spot bid price, spot ask price,
three-month forward bid price, and three-month forward ask
price.77 In July 1992, RSR's premium over the LME cash price
was 5.5 C/lb. The premiums that Asarco and RSR charge over
the LME lead price reflect shipping costs (including ocean
freight, delivery, and insurance) and tariffs.
Although the North American producer price is not a net
price, the high spread in March 1992 between it and the LME
cash price (10.7 C/lb) was said to be "attractive for
importation."78 The spread of only 6 C/lb one year earlier
(March 1991), on the other hand, was said to be "favorable
for exportation of delivered U.S. premium metal."
36
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Profitability varies among secondary lead smelters
according to a number of factors. For example, large
smelters can have economies of scale. Also, secondary
smelters vary in the degree to which they are integrated
downstream into further refinement, alloying, casting, etc.
of soft lead. Such additional value added can set a smelter
apart from its competitors, enabling it to enhance
profitability by charging a premium price.79 Small smelters,
in particular, produce to customer order.80
Smelter location can affect the costs of such important
inputs as electricity, natural gas, coke, and labor, as well
as the cost of lead scrap. Demand conditions for spent
batteries vary from region to region. For example, the
Northeast faces competition for spent batteries from Canada,
while the West faces competition from the Far East and
Mexico. In 1987, the South had the least competition and
consequently the lowest prices for scrap.81 In February
1992, the highest prices for spent batteries were in the
Midwest, where they were as high as 7.5 C/lb.82 in addition
to regional location, proximity to suppliers and customers
can affect profitability. A trucking rate cited in 1987 for
hauls over 100 kilometers was 3.1 C/metric ton-kilometer.83
For an inter-regional shipment of, say, 1,000 kilometers,
this comes to 1.4 C/lb for pure (refined) lead and, assuming
that the average battery weighs 18 kg and contains 9.5 kg of
lead, 2.7 C/lb for the lead content of spent batteries
(assuming that no other part of the battery, such as the
sulfuric acid and the plastic, can be reclaimed).
Transportation distances of up to 1,600 kilometers for spent
batteries are not uncommon.84
Even more important than the availability and price of
spent batteries as a determinant of profitability in
secondary lead smelting is the price of lead, which, as has
been seen, is captive to a sometimes-capricious worldwide
37
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marketplace. 1990 "on average was quite profitable for the
lead industry as the LME cash price achieved the highest
annual level since 1980."8S In 1991, on the other hand,
"London Metal Exchange prices fell by over 30 percent" from
1990 and "very few lead producers made profits."86 In
January 1992, "secondaries were squeezed by having to pay
higher junk-battery prices at the same time that lead prices
were falling."87
In April 1992, when the North American producer price
of lead was 35 C/lb and used battery prices ranged from 6 to
6.5 C/lb, secondary lead smelters were said to be in a
"profit pinch."88 At the time, the LME price was about 24-
24.5 C/lb. Considering that Asarco's price premium was 4.75
C/lb, the net price of lead in the U.S. was therefore about
29 C/lb. This was 22.5-23 C/lb over the price of spent
batteries.
In February 1992, Ross Metals declared that the
existing spread between the prices of lead and spent
batteries — 22 C/lb, the difference between 28 C/lb for lead
and 6 C/lb for spent batteries — was "not sufficient for
profitability."89 The company stated its intention to sell
lead for no less than 31 C/lb and pay no more than
4-4.5 C/lb for spent batteries beginning March 1.
Regardless, Ross Metals shut down in July.
Because spent lead-acid batteries contain lead, their
prices tend to rise when the price of lead rises. Still,
the margins of secondary lead producers improve when the
price of lead increases. After all, scrap lead is only one
component of the cost of producing secondary lead. In a
1987 study, the Bureau of Mines estimated for each of three
model facilities representing the range of secondary-smelter
sizes that lead scrap accounted in 1985 for 25 to 32 percent
of total operating costs, excluding the cost of capital (an
estimated average of 3.5 C/lb for compliance with pending
38
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environmental, safety and health regulations was included in
operating costs)-90 In another study, in 1988, the Bureau of
Mines estimated that in 1987, lead scrap accounted on
average for 33 percent of total operating costs, including
the cost of capital (in this case, 4.1 C/lb for compliance
with existing regulations was included in operating costs).91
From June 19 to July 20, 1992, while the price of lead
increased by nearly 5 C/lb, prices for used batteries
increased on average by 0.25-0.50 C/lb to around 6.5 C/lb.92
7.0 OUTLOOK
The U.S. Department of Commerce forecasts that lead
consumption in the U.S. will grow by 1.3 percent per year
from 1992 to 1996.93 All forms of production will grow at a
slower rate (implying either an increase in net imports or a
draw-down of inventories): mined lead by 0.5 percent per
year, primary lead by 0.7 percent per year, and secondary
lead by 1.0 percent per year. The production share of
secondary lead is therefore expected to increase. This will
be the case worldwide, too, as environmental awareness — of,
for example, the benefits of recycling lead to avoid having
to dispose of it as a hazardous waste — increases.94 The
consumption share of storage batteries in the U.S. is
forecast to continue growing to 82.8 percent in 1996.95
The Bureau of Mines projects that U.S. lead demand will
grow by 0.5-1.5 percent per year in the 1990s.96 The Bureau
of Mines also expects storage batteries to become an even
more dominant end use, in part because "source reduction"
pollution prevention strategies will probably reduce lead
consumption in such markets as solder, paints and coatings,
ceramics, packaging (especially where food is concerned),
and cosmetics.97 The low end of the growth range, 0.5
percent, can be expected if source reduction strategies are
aimed at ammunition, the number two market after storage
batteries. The high end of the range, 1.5 percent, could be
39
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attained depending on the development of the use of lead-
acid batteries for load leveling of electricity and for
electric vehicles.
Load leveling involves charging batteries at times of
low electricity demand and then discharging them to
supplement power supply at times of peak demand. Several
pilot programs have been undertaken, the largest of which is
a battery energy storage plant in Chino, Ca. that uses a
battery containing 2,000 metric tons of lead. "If
successful, this use could increase worldwide lead demand by
more than 700,000 metric tons by the year 2000."98
Electric vehicles are another major potential growth
market for lead. California has taken the initiative by
requiring that emission-free (i.e., electric) vehicles
comprise 2 percent of new cars sold in the state by 1998,
with increasing requirements for following years (e.g., 10
percent by 2003). Alternative battery materials have
received much attention, but "most experts agree that time-
honored lead-acid technology will deliver the power for
electric vehicles in the near- to mid-term."99 General
Motors, which is closest to bringing an electric car to
market (the Impact, which will use an 870-pound lead-acid
battery, could be on the market by late 1992), has said that
"the only batteries that will work in the near term without
problems and at a practical price are lead-acid
batteries."100'101 By 2001, there could be 300,000 electric
cars in the U.S.102
Other potential new applications for lead include in
nuclear waste disposal (as a containment medium for high-
level radioactive waste), asphalt additives (as a stabilizer
to help prevent hardening and cracking), and liquid metal
magnetohydrodynamics (a method of generating electricity by
passing an electrically conducting fluid through a magnetic
field).103 The Commerce Department concludes that "certain
40
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uses of lead may be eliminated through legislation...
However, potential new uses of lead could more than offset
any restrictions."104
The Bureau of Mines projects that worldwide lead demand
will grow in the 1990s by 1.5 percent per year, more than in
the U.S. This is mainly because the growth rate of the
automobile population in the rest of the world — most of
which is not fully developed — is expected to be higher than
in the U.S. This will lead to faster growth in the demand
for automotive batteries in the rest of the world. From
about 60 percent currently, storage batteries are projected
to account for 70 percent of worldwide lead consumption by
the end of the decade.105
The Bureau of Mines predicts that large lead production
surpluses in the near term are not likely, as worldwide
production capacity will be constrained by substantial
capital requirements and high costs of environmental
compliance.106 Nevertheless, RSR Corporation has announced
that it plans to open a secondary lead smelter in the
Southeast, either in North Carolina or South Carolina.107
Start-up is three to five years away. The plant, which will
cost about $60 million, will have a reverberatory furnace
and an electric-arc furnace. Annual capacity will be about
109,000 metric tons and about 150 workers will be employed.
More than 6 million storage batteries will be processed
annually. The company believes that batteries will be
available for the plant. For example, batteries that are
currently being exported from the Southeast can be
redirected.
In addition, GNB Inc. and Asarco are contemplating
investing in new secondary lead smelters.108 However, no
announcements have been made. On the other hand, Fluor
Corporation, the parent of Doe Run, "has made it known over
41
-------
the past two years that it wouldn't mind getting out of the
lead business. "109
The future course of lead prices will depend, as
always, on the interaction of global supply and demand.
Metals & Minerals Research Services Ltd., a British firm,
foresees that as a result of "widespread concern about
tightening emissions standards," planned additions to lead
production capacity in the middle of the 1990s will not keep
up with worldwide growth in lead demand.110 The flood of
exports from the former U.S.S.R., which may keep prices down
for a while, should be consumed by 1995.m Metals &
Minerals Research Services concludes that "the struggle to
boost operating rates as demand growth gets into full swing
in 1993-94 should see quotations rising above 35 cents a
pound by the end of that time."112
42
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8.0 REFERENCES
1. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines.
"Lead: A Chapter from Mineral Facts and Problems, 1985
Edition." Washington, DC, 1985. Page 4.
2. Reference 1, p. 4.
3. Reference 1, p. 11.
4. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines.
"Annual Report 1990: Lead." By William D. Woodbury.
Washington, DC, April 1992. Page 17.
5. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines.
"Minerals Yearbook 1989: Lead." By William D.
Woodbury. Washington, DC, October 1990. Page 16.
6. Reference 1, p. 4.
7. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines,
Minerals Availability Field Office. Information
Circular 8962. "Lead and Zinc Availability - Domestic."
Denver, CO, 1983. Page 3.
8. Reference 5, p. 17.
9. "Secondary Lead Model Plants for New Facilities
(Draft)." Memorandum from Rich Pelt, Radian
Corporation to George Streit, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency. Research Triangle Park, NC, July 9,
1992. Pages 6,7.
10. Reference 9, p. 9.
11. Reference 5, p. 4.
12. Reference 4, p. 5.
13. "EPA Begins Cleanup of Interstate's Lead Smelter in
Ala." American Metal Market. May 5, 1992, p. 4.
14. "Secondaries' Margins Mend as Primary Lead Prices
Grow." American Metal Market, July 21, 1992, p. 1.
15. Reference 4, p. 5.
16. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines.
"Mineral Commodity Summaries 1992." Washington, DC.
1992. Page 100.
43
-------
17. Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. Million Dollar Directory,
1991. New York, NY, 1992.
18. Reference 4, p. 5.
19. Radian Corporation. "Process Description and
Emissions." Chapter 3 of the Secondary Lead NESHAP
Review. Prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency. Research Triangle Park, NC, July 17, 1992.
Page 1.
20. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines,
Intermountain Field Operations Center. Information
Circular 9156. "Domestic Secondary Lead Industry:
Production and Regulatory Compliance Costs." Denver,
CO, 1987. Page 2.
21. Reference 17.
22. Reference 16, p. 100.
23. Reference 1, p. 2.
24. "Secondary Lead Producers Squeezed." American Metal
Market. January 31, 1992, p. 2.
25. "Doe Run Keeps Smelter Running Despite No Pact."
American Metal Market. May 7, 1992, p. 1.
26. Reference 4, p. 26.
27. Reference 4, p. 18.
28. Reference 4, p. 4.
29. Reference 1, p. 2.
30. Reference 1, p. 2.
31. Reference 4, p. 4.
32. Reference 4, p. 26.
33. Reference 4, p. 5.
34. Reference 16, p. 101.
35. Reference 16, p. 100.
36. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
1987 Census of Manufactures. Industry Series.
44
-------
37. Standard & Poor's Investment Services Corporation.
Industry Surveys. New York, NY, September 5, 1991.
Page M 86.
38. Reference 4, p. 17.
39. "Doe Run Cuts Lead Emissions." American Metal Market.
June 16, 1992, p. 3.
40. Reference 16, p. 101.
41. Reference 4, p. 5.
42. Reference 16, p. 101.
43. Reference 1, p. 9.
44. "Upturn in Lead Prices Seen." American Metal Market.
April 29, 1992, p. 5.
45. Reference 14.
46. "Battery Recycling at 97.8% Rate in U.S." American
Metal Market. May 19, 1992, p. 9.
47. U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade
Administration. 1992 U.S. Industrial Outlook.
Washington, DC, January 1992. Page 14-10.
48. Reference 19, p. 4.
49. Reference 46.
50. "EPA Offers ^Buyout' Proposal." American Metal Market.
August 10, 1992, p. 2.
51. "Lead-Hungry RSR Pledges Protection." American Metal
Market. February 24, 1992, p. 1.
52. Reference 20, p. 3.
53. "New Secondary Lead Smelter Set." American Metal
Market, August 14, 1992, p. 1.
54. Reference 47, p. 14-9.
55. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines,
Intermountain Field Operations Center. Open File
Report 55-88, "Impact of Existing and Proposed
Regulations on the Domestic Lead Industry." Denver,
CO, 1988. Page 4.
45
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56. Reference 4, p. 6.
57. "Demand for Lead Could Increase by 2%." American Metal
Market. January 14, 1992, p. 6A.
58. "Battery Producers Hope Lead Holds on to Price
Strength." American Metal Market. July 7, 1992, p. 1.
59. Reference 37, p. M 85.
60. Reference 47, P. 14-10.
61. Reference 4, p. 7.
62. "Lead and Zinc on a Long Slow"Rebound." Engineering &
Mining Journal. May 1992, p. 61.
63. Reference 4, p. 7.
64. Reference 24.
65. Reference 1, p. 11.
66. Reference 16, p. 101.
67. Reference 1, p. 11.
68. Reference 20, p. 3.
69. Reference 16, p. 100.
70. Reference 47, p. 14-10.
71. "Canada Grabs for Lead Scrap." American Metal Market,
July 7, 1992, p. 7.
72. Reference 47, p. 14-10.
73. Reference 37, p. M 86.
74. American Metal Market. August 13, 1992, pp. 15,16.
75. Reference 74.
76. "Asarco, RSR, Schuylkill Bump up Prices for Lead."
American Metal Market. July 30, 1992, p. 1.
77. "RSR's Secondary Lead up 20." American Metal Market.
July 7, 1992, p. 16.
46
-------
78. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines.
"Mineral Industry Surveys: Lead Industry in March
1992." Washington, DC, June 1, 1992. Page 1.
79. Reference 20, p. 9.
80. Reference 20, p. 9.
81. Reference 20, p. 3.
82. "Secondary Lead Smelters Shut Five Furnaces, Cutting
Capacity." American Metal Market. February 13, 1992,
p. 1.
83. Reference 20, p. 10.
84. Reference 20, p. 3.
85. Reference 4, p. 1.
86. Reference 57.
87. Reference 24.
88. "Feb. Battery Shipments Up." American Metal Market.
April 6, 1992, p. 6.
89. Reference 82.
90. Reference 20, pp. 9,11.
91. Reference 55, p. 23.
92. Reference 14.
93. Reference 47, p. 14-9.
94. Reference 5, p. 16.
95. Reference 47, p. 14-9.
96. Reference 4, p. 12.
97. Reference 4, p. 12.
98. Reference 47, p. 14-11.
99. "The New Electric Cars Will Still Need Lead-Acid
Power." American Metal Market, August 13, 1992, p< 8
100. Reference 47, p. 14-11.
47
-------
101. "Battery Debate Heats Up Again." American Metal
Market, January 13, 1992, p. 8.
102. Reference 101.
103. Reference 47, p. 14-11.
104. Reference 47, p. 14-11.
105. Reference 4, p. 12.
106. Reference 4, p. 12.
107. Reference 53.
108. Reference 53.
109. "Doe Run, Union Set Talks Today." American Metal
Market. July 10, 1992, p. 2.
110. Reference 62.
111. "More Cuts Needed for Metals Upturn." American Metal
Market. January 15, 1992, p. 5.
112. Reference 111.
48
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse bejore completing)
1. REPORT NO.
EPA-453/R-94-040
2.
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO,
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Industry Profile for the Secondary Lead Smelters NESHAP
5. REPORT DATE
June 1994
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
US Environmetnal Protection Agency (MD-13)
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
1C. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
Director
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
US Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Final
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
Under the authority of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, a National Emission
Standard for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) is proposed to control emissions from
Secondary Lead Smelters. This document presents background information on the
Secondary Lead Smelters industry collected to facilitate the Economic Impact Analysis
performed in report number EPA-453/R-94-039.
17.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS C. COSATI Field/Group
Air Pollution
Hazardous Air Pollutant
Emission Controls
Economic Impact
Industry Profile
Background
Secondary Lead Smelters
i3B
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EPA Form 2220-1 (R«». 4-77)
PREVIOUS EDITION IS OBSOLETE
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significant bibliography or literature survey, mention it here.
17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
(a) DESCRIPTORS - Select from the Thesaurus of Engineering and Scientilic Terms the proper julhori/cd terms thai identity the major
concept of the research and are sufficiently specific and precise to be used as index entries tor cataloging.
(b) IDENTIFIERS AND OPEN-ENDED TERMS - Use identifiers for project names, code names, equipment designators, etc. Use open-
ended terms written in descriptor form for those subjects for which no descriptor exists.
(c) COSATI HELD GROUP - Held and group assignments are to be taken from the 1965 COSAl I Subject Category List. Since the ma-
jority of documents are multidisciplinary in nature, the Primary Held/Group assignment^) will be spccilic discipline, area of human
endeavor, or type of physical object. The application(s) will be cross-referenced with secondary I ield/(iroup assignments that will follow
the primary posting(s).
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Denote releasability to the public or limitation for reasons other than security for example "Release Unlimited." < ile any availability to
the public, with address and price.
19. & 20. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION
DO NOT submit classified reports to the National Technical Information service.
21. NUMBER OF PAGES
Insert the total number of pages, including this one and unnumbered pages, but exclude distribution list, il any
22. PRICE
Insert the price set by the National Technical Information Service or the Government Printing Office, if known
EPA Form 2220-1 (Rev. 4-77) (Reverse)
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Indust vy profile for the
secondary Send sine] ters
NKSHAP
TITLE
DATE
L OANE.D
BORROWER'S NAME
DATE
RETURNED
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BORROWER'S NAME
I
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