EPA-450/1-73-001-0
THE NATIONAL AIR MONITORING PROGRAM:



      AIR QUALITY AND  EMISSIONS TRENDS



                        ANNUAL REPORT



                               Volume I
                 IVIRONMENTAL PRO!

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THE NATIONAL AIR  MONITORING  PROGRAM:

   AIR QUALITY AND EMISSIONS  TRENDS
              ANNUAL REPORT

                   Volume  I
          Monitoring and Data Analysis Division
          U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
           Office of Air and Water Programs
        Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
        Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
                   August 1973

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This report has been reviewed by the Monitoring and Data Analysis Division, Office
of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Office of Air and Water Programs, Environ-
mental Protection Agency, and approved for publication.  Mention of trade names or
commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.
Copies are available free of charge to Federal employees, current contractors and
grantees, and nonprofit organizations - as supplies permit - from the Air Pollution
Technical Information Center, Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle
Park, North Carolina 27711, or copies may be purchased from the Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20460.
                         Publication No. EPA-450/l-73-001a
                                         ii

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                                    FOREWORD


     During final preparation of this report,  several  events  occurred that affected
its contents.  Uncertainties have arisen concerning which reference method for nitro-
gen dioxide will be designated as the standard method  (three  candidate methods are
proposed).  Consequently, air quality data for nitrogen dioxide were  deleted from
this report, but are available in the Federal  Register (38 FR 15174)  of June 8, 1973.

     In addition, notice was given in the Federal  Register (38 FR  11355) of May 7,
1973 of a proposed revocation of the annual secondary  air quality  standard for sulfur
dioxide.  References to this standard were retained in this report because the pro-
posed revocation should not affect the results or  conclusions presented here.

     Finally, notice of a proposed reclassification of Air Quality Control Regions
for oxides of nitrogen was given by EPA's Acting Administrator in  the Federal
Register (38 FR 15174) of June 8, 1973.   The Air Quality Control Region Priority
Classifications for oxides of nitrogen that are contained in  this  report do not
reflect any proposed changes.

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                                    ABSTRACT

     This report represents  the first major attempt in the history of the  Federal
air program to evaluate  trends in air quality and emissions on both a national  and
a regional basis.

     Based on data from  the  National Air Sampling Networks, air quality trends  are
presented for (1)  total  suspended particulates for 1960 through 1971, (2)  carbon
monoxide, oxides of nitrogen, and oxidants for 1962 through 1971, and (3)  sulfur
dioxide for 1964 through 1971.  Included is a detailed evaluation of ambient  air
quality for three Air Quality Control Regions.  For the period 1940 through 1970,
emissions trends are presented on a national basis only.

     Air quality data, emissions data, and summaries of monitoring activities are
presented for each State and Air Quality Control Region.  Specific program areas
emphasized are data acquisition and analysis, and trend identification and inter-
pretation.

Key Words

     Air Quality Data            Emissions Data          Oxidants
     Air Quality Standards        Fjnissions Trends        Oxides of Nitrogen
     Air Quality Trends           Hydrocarbons            Particulate Matter
     Carbon Monoxide             Monitoring              Sulfur Dioxide
     Data Analysis               Nitrogen Dioxide
                               ACKNOWLEDGMENT

     The Office of Air and Water  Programs of the Environmental Protection Agency
would like to thank the many local and State agencies that have contributed air
quality and emissions data.
                                         IV

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                                     CONTENTS

                                                                               Page
LIST OF FIGURES  	  vii

LIST OF TABLES	ix

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS	xiii

1.  SUMMARY	1-1
    1.1  Introduction	1-1
    1.2  National Air Quality and Emissions Data	1-2
         1.2.1  Air Quality Data	1-2
         1.2.2  Emissions Data	1-3
    1.3  Air Quality and Emissions Trends	1-7
         1.3.1  Air Quality Trends	1-8
         1.3.2  Emissions Trends	1-10

2.  INTRODUCTION	2-1

    2.1  General Background 	  2-1
    2.2  Air Quality Surveillance Programs	2-2
         2.2.1  Federal Programs	2-2
         2.2.2  State Programs	2-2
    2.3  Emissions Surveillance Programs	2-3
    2.4  Report Limitations 	  2-3

3.  STATUS OF NATIONAL AIR QUALITY AND EMISSIONS DATA	3-1

    3.1  Acquisition of Air Quality Data	3-2
    3.2  Summary of Air Quality Data	3-3
         3.2.1  AQCR Summary	3-17
         3.2.2  Station Summary	3-20
    3.3  Summary of Emissions Data	3-44
         3.3.1  National Summary	3-44
         3.3.2  AQCR Summary	3-45

4.  AIR QUALITY AND EMISSIONS TRENDS	4-1
    4.1  Nationwide Emissions Trends	4-1
    4.2  Nationwide Air Quality Trends	4-4
         4.2.1  NASN Trends	4-4
         4.2.2  CAMP Trends	4-20
    4.3  Trend Analyses of Selected AQCR's	4-27
         4.3.1  Metropolitan Los Angeles Intrastate AQCR	4-31
         4.3.2  New Jersey-New York-Connecticut Interstate AQCR 	  4-33
         4.3.3  Metropolitan Chicago Interstate AQCR	4-34

APPENDIX A.  NATIONAL PRIMARY AND SECONDARY AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS .  .  A-l

APPENDIX B.  REQUIREMENTS FOR PREPARATION, ADOPTION, AND SUBMITTAL OF STATE
             IMPLEMENTATION PLANS 	  B-l

APPENDIX C.  AEROMETRIC AND EMISSIONS DATA SYSTEMS	C-l

APPENDIX D.  MAJOR DETERMINANTS OF AIR QUALITY	D-l

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                                                                               Page

APPENDIX E.  INVENTORY OF AIR QUALITY MONITORING STATIONS 	  E-l

APPENDIX F.  AIR QUALITY TRENDS AT NASK STATIONS	F-l
 (Appendices G and H have been published under a separate cover, Publication No.
EPA-450/l-73-001-b, as Volume II of this report.)
APPENDIX G.  SUMMARY OF DATA FROM AIR qilALITY MONITORING STATIONS BY AQCR,
             1969-1971	G-l

APPENDIX H.  AQCR EMISSIONS SUMMARIES 	  H-l
                                           v1

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                                 LIST OF  FIGURES


Figure                                                                         Page

1-1    Composite Annual Means of Total Suspended Particulate at Urban
       and Nonurban NASN Stations	1-9

1-2    Composite Annual Means of Sulfur Dioxide at 32 NASN Stations	1-10

1-3    Composite Average and 90th Percentiles of Annual Maximum Daily
       Suspended Particulate Matter Concentrations at 95 Urban NASN
       Stations	1-11

1-4    Composite Average of Annual Maximum Daily Sulfur Dioxide
       Concentrations at 32 Urban NASN Stations 	  1-11

1-5    Regional Comparisons of Composite Annual Mean Suspended Particulate
       Matter Concentrations at Urban NASN Stations 	  1-12

1-6    Regional Comparisons of Composite Annual Arithmetic Mean Sulfur
       Dioxide Concentrations at Urban NASN Stations	1-12

1-7    Nationwide Emissions for HC, CO, and NO* (1940-1970)	1-14

1-8    Nationwide S02 Emissions (1940-1970) 	  1-14

1-9    Nationwide Particulate Matter Emissions (1940-1970)	1-14

4-1    Nationwide Emissions for HC, CO, and NOX (1940-1970)	4-4

4-2    Nationwide S02 Emissions (1940-1970) 	  4-4

4-3    Nationwide Particulate Matter Emissions (1940-1970)	4-5

4-4    Composite Annual Means of Total Suspended Particulate at Urban and
       Nonurban NASN Stations 	  4-8

4-5    Composite Average and 90th Percentiles of Annual Maximum Daily
       Suspended Particulate Matter Concentrations at 95 Urban NASN
       Stations	4-9

4-6    Four Geographic Regions that Comprise the United States as Defined
       by the Bureau of the Census	4-12

4-7    Regional Comparisons of Composite Annual Mean Suspended Particulate
       Matter Concentrations at Urban NASN Stations 	  4-13

4-8    Comparison of Increased and Decreased Rainfall with Upward and
       Downward Trends in Suspended Particulate Matter Concentrations for
       1968-1971	4-14

4-9    Regional Comparisons of Composite Average Annual Maximum Daily
       Suspended Particulate Matter Concentrations at Urban NASN Stations .  .  4-15

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Figure                                                                          Page

4-10   Composite Annual Means of Sulfur Dioxide at 32 NASN Stations	4-15

4-11   Composite Average of Annual Maximum Daily Sulfur Dioxide Concen-
       trations at 32 Urban NASN Stations	4-15

4-12   Regional Comparisons of Composite Annual Arithmetic Mean Sulfur
       Dioxide Concentrations at Urban NASN Stations 	   4-19

4-13   Regional Comparisons of Composite Average Annual Maximum Daily Sulfur
       Dioxide Concentrations at Urban NASN Stations 	   4-19

4-14   Trend Lines for CO Annual Averages in Five CAMP Cities	4-25

4-15   Trend Lines for NO Annual Averages in Five CAMP Cities	4-26

4-16   Trend Lines for 1«2 Annual Averages in Five CAMP Cities	4-27

4-17   Trend Lines for NOx Annual Averages in Five CAMP Cities	4-28

4-18   Trend Lines for Annual 99th Percentiles of CO in Five CAMP Cities .  .  .   4-29

4-19   Trend Lines for Annual 99th Percentiles of Total Oxidants in Five
       CAMP Cities .	4-30

4-20   Metropolitan Los Angeles Intrastate AQCR	4-31

4-21   99th Percentile Values of Hourly Oxldant Concentrations for the
       Los Angeles Intrastate AQCR 	   4-33

4-22   New Jersey-New York-Connecticut Interstate AQCR 	   4-34

4-23   TSP Annual Geometric Means for Selected Stations in the New Jersey-
       New York-Connecticut Interstate AQCR	4-35

4-24   Annual TSP 99th Percentile for Selected NASN Stations in the New
       Jersey-New York-Connecticut Interstate AQCR	4-37

4-25   Metropolitan Chicago AQCR	4-38

4-26   Annual Arithmetic Means for S02 in the Metropolitan Chicago AQCR. .  .  .   4-40

4-27   99th Percentile Values for S02 in the Metropolitan Chicago AQCR ....   4-40

D-l    Mean Annual Inversion Frequency (Percent of Total Hours with
       Inversions Based 150 Meters or Less Above Ground) 	   D-3

D-2    Isopleths of Mean Annual Morning Mixing Heights 	   D-3

D-3    Isopleths of Mean Annual Afternoon Mixing Heights 	   D-4

D-4    Mean Annual Frequency of Nocturnal Hourly Surface Wind Observations
       <7 Miles per Hour	D-4

D-5    Mean Daily Solar Radiation  (Langleys) Annual	D-5

D-6    Average Concentrations During Days of Eye Irritation in Downtown
       Los Angeles	D-5
                                         VI 1 1

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                                 LIST OF TABLES

Table                                                                          Page

1-1    Nationwide Summary of State Monitrring Inventories as Compiled from
       State Implementation Plans	1-2

1-2    Standards Status of Monitoring Stations by Pollutant, 1969-1971 ....  1-4

1-3    AQCR Status with Respect to Standards, Summarized by Priority
       Classification	1-5

1-4    Comparison of SIP Emissions and 1970 Nationwide Estimates	1-7

1-S    Estimated Total Nationwide Emission Levels, 1940-1970 	  1-13

3-1    Nationwide Summary of State Monitoring Inventories as Reported in
       State Implementation Plans	3-3

3-2    Number of Monitoring Stations Required, Proposed, and Existing
       in each AQCR	3-4

3-3    Number of Monitors Operated by Federal, State, and Local Stations
       in NADB, 1971	3-10

3-4    Comparison of Monitors Reported in SIP's and NADB, 1971 	  3-10

3-5    Priority Classification of AQCR's by Pollutant	3-11

3-6    Nationwide Summary of AQCR Priority Classifications by Pollutant. .  .  .  3-17

3-7    AQCR Status with Respect to Standards, Summarized by Priority
       Classification	3-18

3-8    Standards Status of Monitoring Stations by Pollutant, 1969-1971 ....  3-20

3-9    Summary of AQCR's Exceeding National Ambient Air Quality Standards.  .  .3-21

3-10   Comparison of SIP Emissions and 1970 Nationwide Estimates 	  3-44

4-1    Estimated Total Nationwide Emission Levels, 1940-1970 	  4-3

4-2    Rates of Change for Nationwide Emissions  	  4-5

4-3    Summary of Trends in Annual Mean Suspended Participate Matter
       Concentrations at Urban NASN Stations, 1960-1971	4-6

4-4    Summary of Change in the Maximum Daily Suspended Particulate Matter
       Concentrations at Urban NASN Stations, 1960-1971	4-7

4-5    Percent and Number of NASN Stations Exceeding Primary and Secondary
       Annual Mean and 24-hour Maximum Standards for Suspended
       Particulate Matter, 1960-1971 	  4-10

4-6    Trends in Annual Mean Suspended Particulate Matter Concentrations
       at Nonurban NASN Stations, 1960-1971	4-11
                                         IX

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Table                                                                           Page

4-7    Regional Summary of Trends in Annual  Mean Suspended Particulate
       Matter Concentrations at Urban NASN Stations, 1960-1971  	    4-13

4-8    Summary of Trends in Annual Mean Sulfur Dioxide Concentrations at
       Urban NASN Stations, 1964-1971 	    4-16

4-9    Summary of Change in Maximum S02 Daily Concentrations at   t
       Urban NASN Stations, 1964-1971 . .  .	    4-16

4-10   Percent and Number of NASN Stations Exceeding Primary and Secondary
       Annual Mean and 24-hour Maximum Standards for S02, 1964-1971	    4-18

4-11   Regional Summary of Trends in Annual  Arithmetic Mean Sulfur Dioxide
       Concentrations at Urban NASN Stations, 1964-1971 	    4-19

4-12   Pollutants Measured and Current Monitoring Methods Used at CAMP
       Stations	    4-20

4-13   Monitoring Method and Procedural Changes at CAMP Stations	    4-21

4-14   Carbon Monoxide Concentrations Measured by NDIR Method                   4-22
       at CAMP Stations 	

4-15   Nitric Oxide Concentrations Measured at CAMP Stations by Modified
       Saltzman Colorimetric Method  .  . .	    4-23

4-16   Nitrogen Dioxide Concentrations Measured at Camp Stations by Modified
       Saltzman Colorimetric Method  .  . . „	    4-23

4-17   Oxides of Nitrogen  (NO + N02) Concentrations Measured at CAMP
       Stations	    4-23

4-18   Total Oxidant Concentrations Measured at CAMP Stations by
       Neutral Buffered KI Method	    4-24

4-19   City-Pollutant Combinations from CAMP Station Where Statistically
       Significant Linear Changes  in Annual Average Pollutant Concen-
       tration with Time Were Found	    4-29

4-20   99th Percentile Values for Hourly Oxidant Concentrations in Metro-
       politan Los Angeles Intrastate AQCR	    4-32

4-21   Number of Stations Showing Trends in Annual Mean TSP Concentrations
       in New Jersey-New York-Connecticut AQCR  	    4-35

4-22   TSP Trends for Monitoring Stations in the New Jersey-New York-
       Connecticut AQCR, 1960-1971	    4-36

4-23   Percent of Stations Exceeding Annual TSP Standards in New Jersey-
       New York-Connecticut AQCR	    4-37

4-24   Percent of Stations with 99th Percentile Values Exceeding 24-hour
       TSP Standards in New Jersey-New York-Connecticut AQCR	    4-37

4-25   TSP Trends for Monitoring Stations  in the Metropolitan Chicago
       AQCR, 1964-1971	    4-39

4-26   Number of Stations  Showing  Trends in  S02 Annual Means in Metro-
       politan Chicago AQCR	   4-40

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Table                                                                           Page

4-27   Percent of Stations Exceeding Annual Sulfur Dioxide Standards
       in Metropolitan Chicago AQCR 	   4-41

4-28   Percent of Stations with 99th Percentile Values Exceeding 24-
       Hour Sulfur Dioxide Standards in Metropolitan Chicago AQCR 	   4-41

E-l    State Inventory of Stations Monitoring Suspended Particulates With
       Tape Sampler, 1971	   E-2

E-2    State Inventory of Stations Monitoring Total Suspended Particulates
       With Hi-Vol Sampler, 1971	   E-3

E-3    State Inventory of Stations Monitoring S02 With Continuous Sampling
       Method, 1971	   E-4

E-4    State Inventory of Stations Monitoring S02 With West-Gaeke Colori-
       metric 24-Hour Method, 1971	   E-5

E-S    State Inventory of Stations Monitoring CO With Continuous Sampling
       Method, 1971	   E-6

E-6    State Inventory of Stations Monitoring Total Ox and 03 With Con-
       tinuous Sampling Method, 1971	   E-7

E-7    SIP Inventory of Required, Proposed, and Existing Monitoring
       Stations, By Pollutant and Method	   E-8

E-8    NADB Inventory of Stations Monitoring Suspended Particulates With
       Gravimetric Hi-Vol Method, 1971	   E-10

E-9    NADB Inventory of Stations Monitoring S02 With West-Gaeke Colori-
       metric Method, 1971	   E-12

E-10   NADB Inventory of Stations Monitoring S02 With Conductometric
       Method, 1971	   E-14

E-ll   NADB Inventory of Stations Monitoring S02 With Coulometric Method,
       1971	   E-16

E-12   NADB Inventory of Stations Monitoring S02 With West-Gaeke Bubbler
       Method, 1971	   E-18

E-13   NADB Inventory of Stations Monitoring CO With Nondispersive
       Infrared Continuous Method, 1971 	   E-20

E-14   NADB Inventory of Stations Monitoring Total Oxidants With Alkaline
       KI Method, 1971	   E-22

E-1S   NADB Inventory of Stations Monitoring Total Oxidants With Neutral
       KI Colormetric Method, 1971	   E-24

E-16   NADB Inventory of Stations Monitoring Total Oxidants With Neutral
       KI Coulometric Method, 1971	   E-26

F-l    Air Quality Trends at NASN Stations by Pollutant,  1964-1971   	   F-2
                                           xi

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Table                                                                           Page

G-l    Data From Stations Monitoring TSP With Gravimetric 24-Hour Hi-Vol
       Filter Sample 	    G-4

G-2    Data From Stations Monitoring SC>2 With West-Gaeke (Sulfamic Acid)
       24-Hour Bubbler Method	    G-101

G-3    Data From Stations Monitoring S02 With West-Gaeke Colorimetric
       Method	    G-121

G-4    Data From Stations Monitoring S02 With Conductometric Method	    G-123

G-S    Data From Stations Monitoring SC>2 With Coulometric Method	    G-127

G-6    Data From Stations Monitoring CO With Nondispersive Infrared
       Continuous Method	    G-129

G-7    Data From Stations Monitoring QX With Alkaline Potassium Iodine
       KI Method	    G-135

G-8    Data From Stations Monitoring O^ With Colorimetric Neutral
       Potassium Iodide KI Method	    G-136

G-9    Data From Stations Monitoring QX With Coulometric Neutral
       Potassium Iodide KI Method  	    G-139

H-l    SIP Summary of Emissions From Source Categories, By State 	    H-2

H-2    SIP Summary of Emissions From Source Categories, By State Portion
       of AQCR	    H-28

H-3    SIP Summary of Emissions From Source Categories, By Interstate
       AQCR	    H-185
                                          XII

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                    LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

AQCR          Air Quality Control  Region
CAMP          Continuous Air Monitoring  Program
CliliSS         Community Health and Environmental  Surveillance System
HC            Hydrocarbons
XAAQS         National Ambient Air Quality  Standards
NADB          National Aerometric  Data Bank
XASN          National Aerometric  Surveillance Network
NliDB          National Emissions Data Bank
NIIDS          National Emissions Data System
NO            Nitric Oxide
NO2           Nitrogen Dioxide
NOx           Oxides of Nitrogen  (NO  and N02)
Ox            Total Oxidants
PM            Particulate Matter
SAROAD        Storage and Retrieval of Aerometric Data
SIP           State Implementation Plan
S02           Sulfur Dioxide
SOX           Oxides of Sulfur (S02 and  S03)
TSP           Total Suspended Particulates
                                xm

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         THE  NATIONAL  AIR  MONITORING  PROGRAM:

             AIR QUALITY  AND  EMISSIONS  TRENDS

                             ANNUAL  REPORT


                                 1.   SUMMARY
 1.1  INTRODUCTION

     The quality of our air and the manner in which this quality has changed is  a
subject of major public interest.  Under the Clean Air Act,  as  amended (1970), the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for protecting and enhancing
the Nation's air resources.   This report, which is the first of a series to be issued
periodically by the Office of Air and Water Programs, presents  an overview of the
status of air quality and emissions monitoring programs on a national scale. In ad-
dition to providing information to the public, this account  should prove useful  to
Federal and State officials in their assessment of progress  toward the achievement
of national air quality goals.  Specific program areas emphasized are data acquisi-
tion and analysis, and trend identification and interpretation.

     This report is the first major attempt in the history of the Federal Air Program
to present a comprehensive analysis and interpretation of data  and information col-
lected from Federal, State,  and local air quality and emissions surveillance activi-
ties.   Previous reports addressed themselves to specific monitoring operations (e.g.,
particular geographic regions or monitoring networks) with relatively limited statis-
tical treatment.

     The findings presented in this report are based on extensive monitoring activi-
ties conducted by Federal and other agencies and organized within 247 established Air
Quality Control Regions (AQCR's).   In addition, this report  describes the status of
pollutant emissions in the AQCR's and summarizes nationwide  emission trends on a
source-category basis.  Information is furnished for the six pollutants for which
National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAOS) have been set.   These pollutants  are
suspended particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide (862), carbon monoxide (CO),
photochemical oxidants (Ox),  hydrocarbons (HC), and nitrogen dioxide (N02).

     The Clean Air Act, as amended, requires that primary ambient air ouality stand-
ards,  designed to protect the public health, must be met nationally bv 1975 unless a
2-year extension of this deadline is granted bv the EPA Administrator.   Secondary am-
bient air quality standards,  designed to protect the public  welfare, must be achieved
within a reasonable time.   Bach State is required to submit  to  the Administrator a
plan for the implementation,  maintenance, and enforcement of the NAAOS within each
                                       1-1

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  AQCR  (or portion thereof) within the State.  The major portions of the State Impemen-
  tation Plans  (SIP's) have been approved by EPA and are now being pursued.  EPA is
  responsible for surveillance of the SIP's.

        The data acquired by State air quality monitoring stations established under the
  SIP's are to be submitted to EPA on a quarterly basis.  These data furnish the Agency
  the bases for both periodic air quality information evaluation and assessment of the
  rate  at which SIP's are achieving their stated goals.  Since this report includes in-
  formation both on current air quality and on the status of SIP air monitoring net-
  works, it should serve as a benchmark in reviewing the present status of major com-
  ponents of the air quality monitoring program.

        This report, to the degree that it is comprehensive in terms of scope and con-
  tent, is correspondingly sensitive to limitations imposed by the inadequacies of past
  surveillance activities.  These inadequacies are the consequence of several contribu-
  tory  factors that include geographical, spatial, and temporal sampling maldistribu-
  tion, inconsistencies in sampling and analytic methods, and the lack of systematic
  validation of acquired data.  It is obvious that uncertainties associated with the
  developed data base must, of necessity, limit the degree of confidence that can be
  placed on interpretations derived from it.  Nevertheless, it is believed that this
  report will serve a useful function in establishing a prototype that, through subse-
  quent upgrading and refinement of the existing data base, will eventually evolve into
  a truly complete and reliable representation of air quality and emission trends and
  of progress toward the achievement of NAAQS.

  1.2   NATIONAL AIR QUALITY AND EMISSIONS DATA

        In interpreting the data contained in the report, it should be understood that
  State program requirements are to be progressively achieved over a period ending not
  later than 1977.  This is to emphasize that the report portrays a particular cross
  section of an evolving process rather than a final result.  This is true for both air
  quality and emissions data.

  1.2.1  Air  Quality Data

        An important measure of progress in SIP realization is the relationship between
  the number of existing air quality monitoring stations and those required under the
  implementation planning process.  Table 1-1 presents the numbers of existing monitor-
  ing stations for 1971 as well as those required and proposed, arranged by pollutant
             Table 1-1.   NATIONWIDE SUMMARY OF STATE MONITORING INVENTORIES
                        AS COMPILED FROM STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLANS
Pollutant/method
TSP/tape
TSP/hi-vol
S02/continuous
S02/West-Gaeke
bubbler
Ox/continuous
CO/NDIR continuous
Number of monitors
1971
existing
397
2538
329
541
183
197
1974
proposed
901
3511
698
1431
458
457
Legal
requirement
497
1372
213
666
208
133
Percent increase,
proposed/existing
127
38
112
164
150
132
1-2

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method.  As the table shows, the number of existing monitoring stations in a given
pollutant-method category exceeds, in some instances, the 1974 legal requirement
(Appendix B).  Some table entries may be overly optimistic for two reasons.  First,
the numbers represent national totals that do not indicate geographic distribution
by AQCR.  For example, some AQCR's presently have more monitoring stations for some
pollutants  than is required in 1974.  Other AQCR's must increase their monitoring ac-
tivities to meet the legal requirement.  Second, data obtained from some of the ex-
isting networks are frequently insufficient to enable reliable estimates of air qual-
ity or the evaluation of air quality trends.

     The relationship between the total number of monitoring stations for a given
pollutant and the number of those stations whose measurements exceeded established
standards is presented in Table 1-2.  This information is presented for 1969 through
1971.  Note that this table reflects only those stations from the National Aerometric
Data Bank (NADB) for which sufficient data were available to permit valid assessments
of ambient air quality.  It does not include all operating stations and therefore
must not be construed as representing the total number of stations for which measure-
ments may have exceeded air quality standards.

     To ensure effective sequencing of State plan development, the Federal Regula-
tions set forth a Priority Classification system according to which all AQCR's are
grouped into three priority categories.  These categories are based on the severity
of pollutant concentrations either directly measured or estimated.  A given AQCR is
categorized by individual pollutant rather than on an overall basis.  Thus, a Region
may be classified as Priority I (most severe) for one pollutant and Priority III for
another.  This Priority Classification system was designed to guide the States in
allocating resources for pollution control measures.

     Table 1-3 presents a summary of the number of AOCR's with measurements in excess
of NAAQS by pollutant priority classification.   Based on data available in NADB, 12
AQCR's classified as TSP Priority I or IA met all standards for 1971, 7 met all
standards for 1970, and 11 met all standards for 1969.  More importantly, in 1971, 7
Priority III AQCR's exceeded the annual primary standard (2 others exceeded only the
secondary standard), and 5 exceeded the primary 24-hour standard (10 others exceeded
only the secondary standard).  The fact that Priority I AQCR's have met or are meeting
NAAQS is interesting but not too important since data limitations do not permit us to
say that NAAQS are being met everywhere in the Region.  The fact, however, that con-
centrations in excess of NAAQS are being measured in Priority III Regions is a matter
of important interest since SIP requirements may have been less stringent for these
Priority III Regions and, thus, promulgated control strategies might not necessarily
be effective in achieving NAAQS.

     In similar fashion, the AQCR's that are Priority I, II, or III for other pollu-
tants are sorted according to their standing with respect to the standards for that
pollutant.

1.2.2  Emissions Data

     Emissions data, because of the shorter history of their collection, on a sys-
tematic basis, are less abundant than air quality data.  Further, unlike air quality
data, which are the results of direct measurements, emissions data are largely infer-
ential (i.e., derived from emission factors or other indirect means).

     Table 1-4 presents a summary of nationwide emission estimates.  The top half
shows the nationwide emission totals resulting from the summation of individual AQCR
totals as found in the State Implementation Plans.  AQCR totals were obtained by
means of a comprehensive emission inventorying technique.  This technique involves
estimating a majority of the emissions on a point by point basis when such para-
meters as fuel rates, process rates, and types of control equipment and their
efficiencies are known.  In the case of area sources, for example, motor vehicle
                                                                                     1-3

-------
       Table 1-2.  STANDARDS STATUS OF MONITORING STATIONS BY POLLUTANT,  1969-1971

Suspended parti culates
Total stations with year's valid data3
Exceeding annual secondary standard
Exceeding annual primary standard
Total stations with 1 or more valid quarters
Exceeding 24-hr secondary standard
Exceeding 24-hr primary standard
Sulfur dioxide
Total stations with year's valid data3
Exceeding annual primary standard
Total stations with 1 or more quarter's valid data
Exceeding 24-hr secondary standard
Exceeding 24-hr primary standard
Carbon monoxide
Total stations with 1 or more quarter's valid data3
Exceeding 1-hr standard
Exceeding 8-hr standard
Total oxidants or ozone
Total stations with 1 or more quarter's valid data3
Exceeding 1-hr standard
Number of stations
1969

667
638
335
1095
594
184

178
24
234
72
54

35
3
29

38
37
1970

644
459
319
1002
530
161

155
19
276
52
34

48
10
39

45
43
1971

640
426
275
1313
628
140

153
4
409
60
47

58
7
53

50
50
     Sufficient data available from which statistics can be calculated.

     These are considered to be air quality guides rather than standards.

  emissions,  vehicle miles of travel,  average vehicle speeds,  and population and age
  distribution of vehicle are all considered in determining the total emissions for
  that source category.

       The SIP emissions data presented should be viewed with some caution.   First,
  because a complete set of data for all pollutants is not available for several
  Regions, nationwide totals derived from these data will not be complete.   Second, the
  emissions data for all Regions are not necessarily for the same year.  Most of the
  existing data are referenced to the calendar year 1970.  Third, it is not  known
  whether all States used the same emission factors or estimating techniques in deriving
  their emission totals.  For example, the ratio of CO from transportation to Regional
  population varies to a much higher degree than one would expect because of differences
  in traffic flow and vehicle miles of travel.  Finally, these SIP emissions were cal-
  culated on the basis of the 1972 automotive testing procedure.  Presently, emissions
  are calculated using the 1975 testing procedure.  This change in testing procedure
  causes a corresponding change in nationwide emission rates not reflected in Table 1-4.
  For purposes of comparison, nationwide emissions for 1970 are shown based  on the
  1972 procedure.  Tables presented subsequently in this report and in the Emission
  Trends section are the emissions based on the 1975 procedure and, thus, are the most
  up-to-date EPA estimates.
1-4

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Sulfur dioxide (continued)
Ho. of AQCR's reporting sufficient annual data
No. of AQCR's exceeding secondary annual guide
No. of AQCR's exceeding primary annual standard
No. of AQCR's reporting only sufficient quarterly data
No. of AQCR's reporting insufficient data to compare to NAAQS
Carbon monoxide
Total AQCR's in each priority class
No. of AQCR's reporting sufficient quarterly or annual data
No. of AQCR's exceeding any primary standard
Oxidants
Total AQCR's in each priority class
No. of AQCR's reporting sufficient quarterly or annual data
No. of AQCR's exceeding the primary standard
1-6

-------
                       Table 1-4.  COMPARISON OF SIP EMISSIONS
                              AND 1970 NATIONWIDE ESTIMATES

                                      (TO6 tons/yr)
Source category
SIP emissions3
Transportation
Fuel 'combustion in
stationary sources
Industrial processes
Solid waste disposal
Miscellaneous
Total
1970 nationwide estimates^'0
Transportation
Fuel combustion in
stationary sources
Industrial processes
Solid waste disposal
Miscel laneous
Total
SOX

0.8
28.9
7.8
0.1
0.2
37.8

1.0
26.4
6.4
0.1
0.2
34.1
PM

1.1
9.9
10.3
1.1
1.1
23.5

0.8
6.7
13.3
1.4
4.0
26.2
CO

100.9
1.5
10.3
3.4
2.3
118.4

111.0
0.8
11.4
7.2
18.3
149.0
HC

18.0
1.0
4.3
1.2
1.5
26.0

19.5
0.6
5.5
2.0
7.3
34.9
NOX

11.6
9.2
0.6
0.3
0.2
21.9

11.7
10.0
0.2
0.4
0.5
22.8
           Source:  State Implementation Plans.
           Source:  OAP Reference Book of Nationwide Emissions,  1970.   In-
           ternal Document, ATD, NSIS, Durham, N.C.
          GNot adjusted for 1975 motor vehicle testing procedure or changes
           in estimating procedures as discussed in Trends section.

     The bottom half of Table 1-4 presents 1970 nationwide emissions.   These numbers
were derived from nationwide totals of fuel comsumption, process weights, and overall
average industry control efficiencies.  For motor vehicles, nationwide averages of
vehicle population and age distribution, average route speeds, and emission factors
were used to derive nationwide totals.  Comparisons made between the results of these
two techniques should be viewed with these differences of procedure in mind.

1.3   AIR QUALITY  AND  EMISSIONS TRENDS

     Air quality data, reflecting successive measurements of the same pollutants over
extended periods, indicate the way in which that particular concentration parameter
varies with time.  These variations are usually quite complex because of the varietv
of factors other than emission rates that effect them.  Such factors include meteor-
ology, topography, and source location.  Through appropriate analytical techniques,
meaningful trends can be identified and described.  Such air quality trends are essen-
tial to the evaluation of the rate at which SIP control measures are effective in
achieving NAAQS.

     EPA, on the basis of experience, has determined that the difficulties  in gener-
ating valid trend analyses at this time arc due less to the inherent complexity of
the problem than thev are to the incompleteness and uncertainties that pervade the
                                                                                     1-7

-------
available data base.  As SIP monitoring activities become fullv operational, however,
the quality of the data base should progressively improve.   It is" expected that this
improvement will be reflected in a higher level of reliability of trend analysis
than is possible at this time.

     In addition to air quality trends, a summary of nationwide emissions trends by
source category is presented.  Such trend information on an AQCR basis is not availa-
ble at this time.

1.3.1   Air Quality Trends

     The air quality trends discussed in this report are based primarily on data col-
lected by two Federal air monitoring systems:  the National Air Surveillance Networks
(NASN) and the Continuous Air Monitoring Program  (CAMP).  NASN data reflect samples
taken on a systematic random schedule for a 24-hour collection period once every 2
weeks.  CAMP data are acquired on a continuous basis over 5-minute sampling intervals.
Future reports will more fully utilize State and local air quality data submitted un-
der SIP reporting requirements.

     For both of these networks, the sampling sites have been predominantly urban,
with one station in a city.  In general, efforts were made to locate these sites in a
manner such that they would be roughly comparable from city to city.  But, in the
case of any given city, it should not be assumed that the selected site was represen-
tative of the urban area as a whole.  Therefore, trend interpretations must be tem-
pered by an understanding of the limitations of the data collection pattern.

     State and local air quality data were not utilized in the determination of nation-
al trends because, in part, of the uneven geographical distribution of sampling net-
works  (that reported to NADB) throughout the country.  In addition, a sufficient time
history of data was unavailable at most of these State and local sites to permit a
long-term trend evaluation.  It was judged that any trends derived from inclusion of
State and local data would have distorted the national analysis.  Many of these de-
ficiencies, however, as mentioned previously, will be eliminated as air quality data
collection mechanisms become fully operational as required by the SIP's.

1.3.1.1  National trends in TSP and SO? - Urban, nonurban, and geographic national
trends, based on data obtained from the NASN network, are presented for total suspen-
ded particulates  (TSP) and for sulfur dioxide  (SC>2).  The trend evaluation was based
on comparisons of averages of pollutant concentrations between successive time inter-
vals from 1960 through 1971.  Depending on whether  long-term or more recent trends
were to be evaluated, different intervals were used.

     The results of these analyses show that both TSP and SC>2 air quality have im-
proved considerably over the past 12 years at most of the center-city NASN stations.
Summaries of these improvements, in the form of composite station annual averages,
are presented in Figure 1-1 for TSP and in Figure 1-2 for S02.  For TSP, the urban
composite average decreased from approximately 110 pg/m3 in 1960 to 85 ug/m3 in 1971,
an overall decrease of approximately 20 percent.  For S02, the urban composite aver-
age dropped from 55 ug/m3 in 1964 to approximately  25/ug/m3 in 1971.

     Figures 1-3 and 1-4 present similar trends in urban areas for the maximum values
of daily TSP and SO;; concentrations.

     For the purpose of detecting geographical differences in air quality trends, the
country was divided into four regions.  Comparisons in trends between these geographi-
cal regions are shown in Figure 1-5 for TSP and in Figure 1-6 for S02-  Overall, TSP
and S02 pollutant concentrations tend to be higher  in the Northeast and North Central
portions of the United States.  In general, all regions show downward trends for each
pollutant.  Furthermore, S02 concentration improvements were substantially  greater  in
the Northeast and North Central regions where pollutant levels were initially higher;
the most dramatic improvements have occurred since  1967.

-------
        200
        150
     o
     o:
        100
        50
        10
                             JRANGE OF URBAN GEOMETRIC MEANS

                         f  J RANGE OF NONURBAN GEOMETRIC MEANS
                                     COMPOSITE AVERAGE
                                     95 URBAN LOCATIONS
III
•
•



r


L i-

^
                                     COMPOSITE AVERAGE
                                     18 NONURBAN LOCATIONS
                                       1
                   A
1     r
              I960   1961   1962   1963    1964    1965    1966    1967   1968    1969   1970    1971

                                            YEAR
     Figure 1-1.   Composite annual means of total suspended particulate at urban and nonurban
     NASN stations.
1.3.1.2  Air  quality trends at CAMP  stations - Trends in ambient  air quality levels
were examined in five of the six CAMP  cities for 1962 through  1971.   The results of
the analysis  suggest a slight decline  in  CO concentrations hut a  long-term gradual
rise in oxides  of nitrogen.  Sufficient data were not available to permit a complete
evaluation  of oxidants or hydrocarbons.
                                                                                    1-9

-------
                           200
                           150
                         yioo
                            50
                                        I-
RANGE OF ARITHMETIC MEANS
                                           PRIMARY^

                                AMBIENT AIR   |    |
                                STANDARDS  SECOND ARY^
                                          AVERAGED
                                1964
  1967
  YEAR
1971
                            Figure 1-2.  Composite annual means of sul-
                            fur dioxide at 32 NASN stations.
 1.3.2   Emissions Trends

      Emissions  trends discussed in "this report are based on data for five major air
 pollutants  (SOg,  PM,  CO,  HC,  and NO*)  over the period 1940 to 1970.*  Levels of emis-
 sions were  estimated  using various indicators such as national totals of fuel consump-
 tion, refuse burning  rates, vehicle miles of travel, industrial production rates,  and
 control  efficiencies.  Average emission factors, which relate these indicators to
 emission rates  for specific source categories, were used in deriving the estimates.
 It is believed  that these estimates provide fairly reliable representations of nation-
 wide emission totals.

      Yearly fluctuations  in emission levels for some source categories are difficult
 to detect.  For example,  changes in the sulfur content of fuels can vary significantly
 from one year to the  next.  In the absence of continual and systematic updating of in-
 formation,  only estimates of  such c'tianges can be made.  Over a longer time frame of
 5 to 20  years,  however, not only are mere fluctuations easier to detect, but their im-
 pact is  more readily  apparent than on a year to year basis.

      Estimated  nationwide totals of emission levels over a 30-year time span are pre-
 sented in Table 1-5.   The yearly emission rate is categorized according to controlla-
 ble and  miscellaneous (uncontrollable) emissions.  These miscellaneous sources include

  *A much more detailed discussion,  including  tables  and methodology,  is  presented in
  Nationwide Air Pollutant Emission  Trends,  1940-1970, AP-115.
1-10

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    1000
 ce
 2
     800
     600
     400
                       I
RANGE OF URBAN ANNUAL
   MAXIMUM VALUES
                                             COMPOSITE AVG
                                               OF MAXIMUM
                                                VALUES
                                               i
            1960   1961    1962    1963    1964    1965   1966    1967    1968   1969    1970   1971

                                              YEAR

Figure 1-3.  Composite average and 90th percentiles of annual maximum daily suspended par-
ticulate matter concentrations at 95 urban NASN stations.

600
400
200
0

—

P





I
RANC
DA

nil
(IMAR

Y 24-HOUR IV
STANDARD


AXIML

T 1 — -1
COMPOSITE AVERAGE
MAXIMUM VALUE
• + + + .
1964

1967
YEAR
;EOF
ILY V
MAXIH
I\LUES
HUM

—
r i 	 -
IM>
h

• 	 .

- — ,


1971
                          Figuie 1-4.  Composite average of annual
                          maximum daily sulfur dioxide concentrations
                          at 32 uiban NASN stations.
                                                                                            1-11

-------
                                               100
  O
  LU
  O
100


 75


 50


 25
                         .NORTHEAST
                         -NORTH CENTRAL
                         •WEST
                         -SOUTH
                                                60
        1960
                  1965
                 YEAR
1971
                                                20
   Figure 1-5.  Regional comparisons of
   composite annual mean suspended panicu-
   late matter concentrations at urban NASN
   stations.
                                                                 	 NORTHEAST
                                                                 	 NORTH CENTRAL
                                                                 	SOUTH
                                                                 	WEST
                                            O1—
                                            1964
                                                               1967
                                                               YEAR
                                           1971
                                               Figure 1-6.  Regional comparisons of com-
                                               posite annual arithmetic mean sulfur dioxide
                                               concentrations at urban NASN stations.

forest fires, structural  fires,  and other pollutant origins over which man has  no
real effective control.   It  is  important to note that not all natural sources of pol-
lution are included because  of  the lack of information on totals or emission factors.

       These estimates reflect the  latest  EPA data on emission factors and  source acti-
  vity rates as well as the use  of  the  1975 testing procedure of estimating motor vehi-
  cle emissions.   The 1975 testing  procedure is  thought to be more representative of
  actual driving conditions than the old 1972 procedure.

       Over the 30-year interval, total CO emissions increased at a compound  rate of
  1.1 percent per year.  Carbon  monoxide emissions from automotive sources, however,
  have increased at an annual rate  of nearly 4.0 percent.  The difference  in  growth
  rates between automotive CO and  total CO is accounted for by a greater reduction in
  emissions from stationary fuel combustion and  miscellaneous sources than  from auto-
  motive sources.

       Hydrocarbon emissions increased  about 1.7 percent annually from 1940 to  1970.
  Automotive sources alone represent a  rate increase for HC emissions of nearly 3.3
  percent.  The control of hydrocarbons from the crankcase (or blowby) reduced  average
  per-vehicle emissions by one-third in the early 1960's.  This has resulted  in an HC
  emission growth rate from vehicles that  is lower than the CO growth rate.

       For the period 1940 to 1970, the growth rates of NOX emissions from motor vehi-
  cles and stationary fuel combustion sources were very similar, being 4.8  oercent and
  3.7 percent, respectively.  Over  the  ~>eriod 1940 to 1960, however, the average rate
  of increase for NOX emissions  from road vehicles was 4.9 percent, whereas the in-
  crease from stationary fuel combustion sources was only 2.0 percent.  During  the per-
  iod 1960 to 1970, these trends were rsversed and the road vehicle rate of increase
  was 4,6 percent as opposed to  7.3 percent for  stationary fuel combustion sources.
1-12

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        Table 1-5.   ESTIMATED TOTAL
                                    NATIONWIDE EMISSION LEVELS,  1940-1970

                                    (TO6 tons/yr)

1940 Controllable
Misc. (uncontrollable)3
Total
1950 Controllable
Misc. (uncontrollable)
Total
1960 Control 1-able
Misc. (uncontrollable)
Total
1968 Controllable
Misc. (uncontrollable)
Total
1969 Controllable
Misc. (uncontrollable)
Total
1970 Controllable
Misc. (uncontrollable)
Total
S02
22.2
0.6
22.8
24.3
0.6
24.9
22.6
0.6
23.2
30.5
0.6
31.1
31.9
0.2
32.1
33.3
0.1
33.4
PM
19.2
25.7
44.9
20.8
12.4
33.2
21.0
8.9
29.9
22.5
5.9
28.4
22.8
12.2
35.0
22.3
3.2
25.5
CO
42.5
30.5
72.5
62.3
20.6
82.9
79.3
19.3
98.6
93.4
18.0
111.4
97.6
17.5
115.1
96.0
4.7
100.7
HC
10.1
6.5
16.6
15.6
6.2
21.8
18.8
7.0
25.8
22.1
7.6
29.7
21.9
6.8
28.7
22.5
4.8
27.3
NOX
5.5
1.0
6.5
8.2
0.6
8.8
10.9
0.5
11.4
19.1
0.4
19.5
20.6
0.5
21.1
22.0
0.1
22.1
         Uncontrollable sources include forest fires,  structural  fires,  coal
         refuse banks,  some agricultural  burning,  and  some  solvent
         evaporation.
Over the last 10 years,
rate of 7.4 percent.
                            emissions from steam-electric power plants increased at a
     Figures 1-7 through 1-9 present the 30-year emission trend lines.   For TSP and
S02, a breakdown by source category is also shown.
                                                                                 1-13

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       1940
1950         1960
     YEAR
      Figure 1-7.   Nationwide emissions for HC,
      CO, and NOX (1940-1970).
                                                        1940
1950          1960
      YEAR
                                                          Figure 1-8.   Nationwide S02 emissions
                                                          (1940-1970).
                                 1940
                         1950          1960
                              YEAR
                                                                       1970
                               Figure 1-9.   Nationwide particulate matter
                               emissions (1940-1970).
1-14

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1.3.3  Interpretation of Results

     The result of the NASN S02 analysis has shown a very pronounced downward long-
term trend over the 8-year period, with the composite average dropping over 50 per-
cent.  A review of nationwide emissions data over the same time interval, however,
shows an increase in SC>2 emissions from approximately 27 million tons in 1964 to
over 33 million tons in 1971 (an increase of over 20 percent).  Thus, an apparent
inconsistency exists between rising nationwide S02 emissions on the one hand and de-
creasing ambient concentrations on the other.

     The following considerations may be helpful in explaining this apparent incon-
sistency.  First, emissions are determined for the nation as a whole, whereas air
quality data are generally collected for specific sites in center-city locations.
Thus, the impact of changes in and about the sampling sites would have dramatic re-
sults on local air quality measurements but insignificant impact on nationwide emis-
sions.  Second, because of several factors, S02 emission rates in most urban areas
are declining.  The use of coal in residential and small commercial sources is prac-
tically non-existent.  Cleaner fuels such as natural gas and distillate fuel oils
have replaced coal to a large extent.  The impact on total nationwide emissions as a
result of this fuel replacement is relatively small, but the effect on local air
quality is pronounced.  Third, large point sources such as power plants are not able
to locate near or in center-city areas.  Strict local regulations and fuel avail-
ability are determining factors.  Increased fuel transporation  costs favor the gen-
eration of electricity near the fuel source - e.g., mine-mouth operations in Penn-
sylvania.  Finally, emissions generated at ground level, such as from area sources,
have a much larger impact on local ambient air quality than the same emissions from
an elevated point source.

     Although particulate matter concentrations, like S02, have shown a decrease
since the early 1960's, the percent reduction has not been as dramatic.  A conflict
also arises with TSP because, again, nationwide emissions have shown a slight increase
(about 10 percent) since 1960.  The reasons for this apparent conflict are the same.
The use of cleaner fuels for home heating and for office buildings would have signif-
icant impact on center-city monitors, but a small impact on total nationwide emis-
sions.  The increasing controls used on stationary sources such as power plants and
industries, coupled with relocation, would also contribute to the decreasing air con-
centrations .

     The percentage of improvement for TSP concentrations has not been as great as
for S02, partly because of the presence of background or noncontrollable "emissions."
Background concentrations of S02 are essentially zero for urban areas, whereas wind-
blown dust and pollen result in particulate concentrations for which emission control
plans will have no impact.  For this reason, particulate emission reductions are not
as effective in terms of percentage of air quality improvement as are similar reduc-
tions in SC>2 emissions.
                                                                                   1-15

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                                2.   INTRODUCTION
     This report presents a comprehensive overview of the nation's air quality.  Its
findings are based on extensive monitoring activities conducted by Federal, State,
and local air pollution control agencies and organized within established Air Quality
Control Regions (AQCR's).  In addition, the report describes the status of pollutant
emissions in AQCR's and summarizes nationwide emission trends on a source category
basis.  Information is provided for the six pollutants for which National Ambient
Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) have been set.  Other air pollutants will be reviewed
in future reports.

     The following discussion is intended to provide both the historical perspective
and critical orientation necessary for the proper interpretation and assessment of
the data and information presented in this report.

2.1  GENERAL BACKGROUND

     Regulations prescribing national primary and secondary air quality standards
were issued by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on April 30, 1971 (Appendix
A).  These standards cover suspended particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, carbon
monoxide, photochemical oxidants, hydrocarbons, and nitrogen dioxide.  The Clean Air
Act, as amended (1970),  specified that primary ambient air quality standards,
designed to protect the public health, must be met nationally by 1975 unless a 2-year
extension of this deadline is granted by the Administrator of EPA.  Secondary
National Ambient Air Quality Standards, designed to protect the public welfare from
any known or anticipated adverse effects associated with the presence of air pollu-
tants in the ambient air, must be achieved within a reasonable time.   The States
were required to adopt and submit to the Administrator a plan that provides for the
implementation, maintenance, and enforcement of National Ambient Air Quality Stan-
dards within each AQCR (or portion thereof) within the State (Appendix B).  Each
State has since promulgated emission limitations in the form of legal regulations.
Schedules for compliance with these regulations are currently being developed for all
major sources.  The compliance schedules specify emission-reduction timetables for
these sources.

     Most portions of the State Implementation Plans (SIP's) have been approved by
EPA and are now being pursued.  EPA has the responsibility for surveillance of the
SIP's to determine whether they are being adequately supported and whether sufficient
progress is being made toward meeting national air quality goals.  Because of EPA's
recognition of the deficiencies of much of the air quality data used to develop these
plans,  the States were required to establish air quality surveillance systems (meet-
ing minimum criteria)  that must be operational by 1974.  Data submitted from the
operation of these networks are to form the basis for assessing the degree to which
NAAQS are realized.  In addition, the States are required to submit to EPA, on a
quarterly basis, all of the air quality data that they have obtained from their
existing monitoring networks.  These data are to be submitted to the EPA Regional
Offices for examination for inconsistencies and errors.  The corrected data are then
to be forwarded to the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards for inclusion in
the National Aerometric Data Bank (NADB)(Appendix C).   Emissions data are also re-
quired from the States in the form of semi-annual reports that are to be used for
updating the emission information in the National Emissions Data Bank (NEDB)  (Ap-
pendix C).   Both air quality and emissions data will be assessed periodically to
determine overall pollution trends and to provide an early warning of potential
problems in source emission compliance or air quality standard achievement.
                                          2-1

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       It is very probable that many stationary sources that were not already in com-
  pliance when the SIP's were being developed will not be able to comply until 1974
  at the earliest.  For this reason, emission regulations set forth in these plans are
  not likely to result in significant air quality improvement before the mid-1970's.
  Any significant downward trends in emissions or improvements in air quality presented
  in this report are most probably the result of previous State or local controls;
  thus, downward trends or improvements through 1971 should be so interpreted.

  2.2  AIR  QUALITY SURVEILLANCE PROGRAMS

       The following is a brief account of the nature and purpose of Federal and State
  air quality monitoring programs.

  2.2.1   Federal Programs

       There are currently six Federal monitoring programs in operation.  Two of these
  (NASN and CAMP) were found suitable for trend analysis.  The other four (particle-
  size network, membrane-filter network, precipitation network, and CHESS) were design-
  ed for special purposes and do not yield data suitable for long-term evaluation.

       Many of the data on which air quality analyses are based are derived from
  information obtained from EPA's National Air Surveillance Network (NASN).  The NASN
  was established in the mid-1950's with the assistance and cooperation of State and
  local agencies.  Currently, there are approximately 260 stations that monitor total
  suspended particulate matter (TSP), whereas sulfur dioxide (S02) is monitored at 200
  stations.  Both TSP and 862 have been collected on a bi-weekly modified random
  sampling schedule that produces 26 daily samples per station per year.  Each pollu-
  tant is monitored arid analyzed using standard EPA reference methods or their equiva-
  lents (Appendix A).

       Nitrogen dioxide (NC>2) is also monitored at most of the NASN sites.  Recent
  studies, however, have shown that the technique used (Jacobs-Hochheiser) is inade-
  quate for accurately assessing ambient N02 levels.  An experimental NASN NC>2 program
  was initiated in 19'/2.  This program eniploys a modification of the Jacobs-Hochheiser
  method and will, hopefully, yield more accurate results.  Until the technique has
  been fully validated over a period of time, the monitoring information developed
  from it will not be used to assess ambient N02 levels.

       The Continuous Air Monitoring Program, which supplements the NASN, uses instru-
  mentation that continuously monitors tfie concentrations of various air pollutants.
  CAMP stations have been operating in six major urban areas for nearly 10 years, and
  their accumulated data provide a detailed record of air quality information.  Changes
  in instrumentation and operating techniques make trend analyses of the data difficult
  in some cases, however.

  2.2.2   State Programs

       In addition to EPA's air monitoring networks as described above, there are other
  networks operated by State and local governments.  A considerable amount of State-
  acquired data is already stored in EPA's data banks.  This is a result of a voluntary
  program begun in the 1960's through which a number of States submitted air quality
  data in EPA's Storage and Retrieval of Aerometric Data  (SAROAD) format  (Appendix C).
  Because of the voluntary nature of the program until recently, NADB contains air
  quality data from only about half the States.  The time required by the States to
  process and report information is such that the 1972 State air quality data are not
  contained in this report.

       Implementation plan requirements (Appendix B) require the States to submit air
  quality and emissions data on a quarterly and semi-annual basis, respectively.  As
  of March 1973, few data had been received as a result of these requirements, and it
2-2

-------
is not expected that significant amounts of the State-derived information will be
transmitted to EPA until the summer of 1973.  For the most part, data that were
submitted by the States in support of their implementation plans are not complete
and were not presented in a format readily amenable to analysis.  For the purposes
of this report, however, such SIP air quality data as are considered adequate are
cited on an example basis.  The number of such examples is too small to permit
extensive comparison between EPA-derived and State-derived air quality information.

2.3   EMISSIONS SURVEILLANCE PROGRAMS

     The following is a brief presentation of surveillance programs through which
data are obtained pertaining to air pollutant emissions.  The collection of emis-
sions data has been a part of Federal and State control programs for many years.
The data collection in the past, however, has been performed only for special pur-
poses (e.g., abatement activity) or for only a limited area.  Not until the passage
of the Clean Air Act, as amended (1967), were emissions data collected extensively
throughout the country.  The data collected under the authority of this Act were
used in delineating boundaries of AQCR's.  The inventories conducted were of a
rapid-survey type in that not all sources were surveyed on an individual basis.
Many were considered collectively as area sources.

     As the requirements of the implementation planning program were relegated to
State agencies, it became necessary to collect emissions data throughout the country
for all Regions (not restricted to major metropolitan areas) and to provide proce-
dures for regular revisions and updating of the emissions estimates.  Thus, the
National Emissions Data System  (NEDS) evolved.  This system provides for storage  and
retrieval of detailed emissions data on both point and area sources.  A more thorough
discussion of the NEDS is presented in Appendix C.

2.4  REPORT LIMITATIONS

     The significance of this report lies in the fact that it is the first major
attempt in the history of the Federal Air Program to present a comprehensive analysis
and interpretation of data and information collected from Federal and State air
quality and emissions surveillance activities.  Previous reports addressed themselves
to specific monitoring operations (e.g., particular geographical regions) with
relatively limited statistical treatment.

     This report, to the degree that it is more extensive in terms of scope and con-
tent, is correspondingly more sensitive to limitations imposed by the inadequacy  of
past surveillance activities.   The inadequacy of these activities is the consequence
of several contributory factors that include geographical, spatial, and temporal
sampling maldistribution, inconsistencies in sampling and analytic methods, lack  of
systematic validation of acquired data, and insufficient monitoring resources.  It
is obvious that uncertainties associated with the developed data base must of
necessity limit the degree of confidence that can be placed on interpretations
derived from it.  Nevertheless, it is believed that this report will serve a useful
function in establishing a prototype that, through subsequent progressive upgrading
and refinement of the existing data base, will eventually evolve into a truly com-
plete and reliable representation of air quality and emission trends, and of pro-
gress toward the achievement of National Ambient Air Quality Standards.
                                                                                   2-3

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     3.   STATUS OF  NATIONAL  AIR  QUALITY  AND  EMISSIONS  DATA


     This chapter presents a summary account of national  air  quality and  emissions
based on data collected up to the end of calender year 1971.   Because of  delays  in
State information processing and transmittal, the data for  1972  are  not yet avail-
able in sufficient amounts to warrant their inclusion in  this report.  The discus-
sions of both air quality and emissions data are preceded by  descriptions of  the
basic collection mechanisms by which these data were  obtained; these descriptions
assess the operation of the mechanisms in terms of implementation plan objectives.
Summaries of the collected data are then presented on both  a  national and an  AOCR
basis.  These data presentations include interpretive comments designed to highlight
significant findings where it is believed that the data on  which they are based are
sufficiently reliable to permit the inferences drawn.

     It is expected that the summary data presented in this chapter  will  be of value
in providing an assessment of the degree to which the States  are attaining compliance
with the requirements that they must meet under the implementation planning program.
In interpreting the data contained in this chapter, it should be understood that the
program requirements are to be achieved progressively over  a  period  ending not later
than 1977.  This is to emphasize that the report portrays a particular cross  section
of an evolving process rather than a final result.

     The procedural details of the implementation planning  process and the air qual-
ity standards these processes are to achieve are fully described in  Appendices A
and B.  An important aspect of the national air quality program  is the requirement
that the States establish specific implementation plans for their AQCR's.  These
plans must take into account the fact that pollutant  concentrations  in some AQCR's
are far more severe than in others.  To insure effective  sequencing  of State  plan
development, the Federal Regulations set forth a Priority Classification  system accor-
ding to which all AQCR's are grouped into three priority  categories.   These categories
.are based on the severity of pollutant concentrations either  directly measured or
estimated.  A given AQCR is categorized by individual pollutant  rather than on an
overall basis.  Thus, a Region may be classified as Priority  I  (most severe)  for one
pollutant and Priority III for another.  A list of these  priorities  appears later
in this chapter.  This Priority Classification system, which  is  designed  to guide
the States in allocating resources for pollution control  measures, provides an indi-
cation of the relative complexity of the required measures.

     The collection of emissions inventory information on an  organized national bas-
is was initiated as a component of the implementation planning program.   Partly be-
cause of its relatively recent origin, and partly because of  the magnitude and com-
plexity of the effort required to obtain emissions data,  the  total information accu-
mulated to date is far less valuable in terms of usefulness for  analytic  and  projec-
tive purposes than that available from air quality measurements.   Further, it must
be recognized that, unlike most air quality data, emissions data consists, in large
part, of computed or estimated values as opposed to values  derived from physical
measurement.  This does not imply> however, that current  emissions data are not of
great value in developing AQCR implementation plan strategies.   These data are most
useful, for example, in identifying specific or categorical pollutant sources for
which control measures should be developed.  This importance  of  emissions data is
considerably accentuated when AQCR air quality data are missing  or incomplete.

     Both air quality and emissions data are first presented  on  a nationwide  basis
to provide a preliminary overview.  Data are then tabulated on an AQCR basis  in or-
der to display prevailing pollution patterns within any specific Region of interest.
                                         3-1

-------
     Review of the data presented in this and the following chapter should be conduc-
ted with the understanding that the interpretation of a specific measurement should
take into account not only its degree of validity per se but also its usefulness as
a representative indicator of air quality.  The reason is that this usefulness is in-
fluenced by many factors that are independent of the measurement process.  Such fac-
tors, which include meteorological and topographic effects, atmospheric reactions
and removal processes, and sensor location, all influence the degree to which a given
measurement is representative of air quality.  These considerations are more, fully
discussed in Appendix D.

3.1   ACQUISITION OF AIR QUALITY DATA

     In order to understand the significance and implications of the national and
regional air quality data presented below, it is first necessary to acquire famili-
arization with the principles and methodologies underlying the overall data acquisi-
tion process.  This information is detailed in Appendices A and B.  The following
discussion briefly reviews these areas and provides a basis for evaluating tabular
data that indicate the status of SIP's as of the end of calender year 1971 with re-
spect to implementation plan requirements.  It should be noted that small discrepan-
cies may appear among various air quality summary tables.  These arise because of
daily updates of NADB information.

     As explained in the Introduction, air quality standards have been set for six
pollutants (sulfur dioxide, suspended particulate matter, carbon monoxide, nitrogen
dioxide, photochemical oxidants, and hydrocarbons) in terms of maximum permissible
peak and average concentrations.  For each pollutant, reference methods and their
equivalent procedures, where applicable, have been established for sampling tech-
niques and analyses.  Data obtained from surveillance programs indicate the degree
to which the measured air quality relates to established standards.  This degree is
an important factor in determining the Priority Classification of a given AQCR with
respect to each pollutant.

     Under the implementation planning program, the number of monitoring stations to
be established in a given AQCR is a function of both its Priority Classification and
its population.  As stated earlier, the required minimum number of stations that are
prescribed for each AQCR must be operational by 1974.

     The relationship between the number of stations now existing and the minimum
national totals on a pollutant basis that must be operational by 1974 provides one
measure of progress in implementation plan achievement.  The number of monitoring
stations both existing and required under the implementation planning process by
pollutant and method on a nationwide basis is presented in Table 3-1.  As this table
shows, the number of existing stations in a given category, in some instances, ex-
ceeds the 1974 legal requirement.  The national totals do not, of course, indicate
geographic distribution and, because of this, some table entries may appear to be
overly optimistic.  Accordingly, a similar breakdown is presented on an AQCR basis
in Table 3-2.

     Table 3-3 provides information on the level of agency responsible for the opera-
tion of various pollutant monitors.  This table lists only those monitors whose data
are contained in the NADB.  A breakdown is presented according to the validity of
sample information.  Valid data are for those stations that satisfy the annual vali-
dity criteria.*

*The criteria for  24-hour data require  that a minimum of five samples be collected
per  quarter.  The  samples can be distributed in any manner among the months.  When
no samples are  collected  in one month and either of the other two months has  less
than two valid  samples, the data are not valid.  The criteria for continuous  data
 (1-hour) are that  at  least 75 percent of the 1-hour observations must be valid for
the  year.
3-2

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   Table 3-1.   NATIONWIDE SUMMARY OF STATE MONITORING INVENTORIES AS REPORTED

                          IN STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLANS
Pollutant/method
TSP/tape
TSP/hi-vol
S02/continuous
S02/West-Gaeke bubbler
Ox/continuous
CO/NDIR continuous
Number of monitors
1971
existing
397
2538
329
541
183
197
1974
proposed
901
3511
698
1431
458
457
Legal
requirement
497
1372
213
666
208
133
Percent increase,
proposed/existing
127
38
112
164
150
132
     As Table 3-3 shows, approximately 37 percent of the data stored in NADB for
1971 as of April 1973 can be considered valid.   It is expected that as SIP monitoring
objectives are realized, the percentage of valid data generated will increase signif-
icantly.  The number of proposed stations based on SIP's is 8646, which implies a po-
tential increase of ninefold in the national total of stations with valid monitoring
data.  This should raise the value of interpretations and the reliability of infer-
ences based on future data to a far higher level than is now achievable.  It is of
the utmost importance that, as the number of monitors is increased, efforts are so
directed as to ensure that data generated by all stations are valid to -the highest
degree possible.  Only in this way can there be any assurance that the expansion and
operation of the monitoring network will provide the basis for realizing NAAQS and
assessing the effectiveness of control strategies.  Appendix E presents both a more
detailed State-by-State compilation of SIP required monitoring stations and a break-
down of NADB stations on the basis of their data validity.

     Table 3-4 presents a summary of the number of air quality monitors by pollutant
as compiled from the SIP's.  A comparison is made with monitors reported in NADB for
1971 identifying both valid or invalid stations.  The ratio of the total stations
reported to NADB to the total stations reported by the States in their plans is near-
ly 0.6.  A more detailed compilation by State is also presented in Appendix E.

3.2  SUMMARY OF AIR QUALITY DATA

     Table 3-5 presents a summary of the AQCR's in terms of their Priority Classifi-
cations by pollutant, and Table 3-6 is a summary classification by pollutant and
Priority Classification.  Hydrocarbons are omitted because the HC standard is direct-
ly related to the oxidant standard.  Thus, the Priority Classification of hydrocar-
bons is identical to that for oxidants.

     Table 3-7 sorts the AQCR numbers by Priority Classification for each pollutant
and presents the number of AQCR's in each classification that had at least one sta-
tion exceeding one or more of the standards in 1969, 1970, or 1971.

     Under suspended particulates, for example, the table lists Priority I AQCR's ac-
cording to whether they meet all particulate standards or have exceeded one or more
of these standards.  In addition, Priority II and III AQCR's are listed each accord-
ing to its standing with respect to the particulate standards based on the available
data.  Columns are included showing AQCR's with fragmentary data or with no data on
record with the NADB for 1969, 1970, or 1971 as of mid-March 1973.
                                                                                  3-3

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        Table 3-3.  NUMBER OF MONITORS OPERATED BY FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL STATIONS
       	                      IN NADB, 1971
Pollutant/method
TSP/tape
TSP/hi-vol
S02/continuous
S02/West-Gaeke
bubbler
Ox/continuous
CO/NDIR continuous
N02/co1ori metric
(Saltzman)
continuous
N02/bubbler
Total
Grand total
Federal
Valid
0
166
2
77
4
2
3
-
254
Invalid3
1
122
13
126
26
29
9
-
326
580
State
Valid
20
343
10
25
8
19
9
-
434
Invalid3
15
595
20
122
28
23
14
-
817
1251
Local
Valid
13
146
13
29
18
18
20
-
257
Invalid3
65
195
29
46
42
37
22
-
436
693
Total
Valid
33
655
25
131
30
39
32
-
945
Invalid3
81
912
62
294
96
89
45
-
1579
2524
Total
114
1567
87
425
126
128
77
-
2524

      Invalid because of insufficient data for statistical calculations.
              Table 3-4.  COMPARISON OF MONITORS REPORTED  IN SIP's AND NADB, 1971
Pollutant/method
TSP/tape
TSP/hi-vol
S02/continuous
S02/West-Gaeke
bubbler
Ox/continuous
CO/NDIR continuous
Number of monitors
SIP
397
2538
329
541
183
197
NADB
Total
114
1567
87
425
126
128
Valid
33
655
25
131
30
39
Invalid3
81
912
62
294
96
89
Ratio of total
NADB to SIP
0.29
0.62
0.26
0.79
0.69
0.65
            Data  incomplete  or  not well distributed enough to permit calculation of
            annual  statistics.
           Based on data available in NADB,  12 TSP Priority I or IA AQCR's met all stand-
      ards for 1971, 7 met all standards for 1970, and 11 met all standards for 1969.
      More importantly, in 1971, 7 Priority III AQCR's exceeded the primary annual standard
      (2 others exceeded only the secondary standard), and 5 exceeded the primary 24-hour
      standard (10 others exceeded only the secondary standard).  The fact that Priority I
      AQCR's have met or are meeting NAAQS is interesting but not too important because
      data limitations do not permit us to say that NAAQS are being met everywhere in the
      Region.  The fact that concentrations in excess of NAAQS are being measured in
3-10

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                   Table 3-6.  NATIONWIDE SUMMARY OF AQCR PRIORITY
                            CLASSIFICATIONS BY POLLUTANT
Pollutant
PM
S02
CO
N02
Ox
Priority classification
I
109
39
29
45
54
IA
11
21
--
2
--
II
70
41
--
--
—
Ill
57
146
218
200
193
Total
247
247
247
247
247
Priority III Regions, however, is a matter of important interest, because SIP
requirements may have been less stringent for these Priority III Regions; thus,
promulgated control strategies might not necessarily be effective in achieving NAAQS.

     In similar fashion, the AQCR's that are Priority I, II, or III for sulfur diox-
ide are sorted according to their standing with respect to the standards for that
pollutant.

     Priority I or III AQCR's for carbon monoxide are listed according to their
standing with respect to the 1-hour and 8-hour standards.

     Priority I or III AQCR's for total oxidants meeting or exceeding the 1-hour
standard are also presented.

     An analysis of monitoring stations with valid data, by pollutant, showing the
number whose measurements exceed primary and secondary standards, is presented in
Table 3-8.  It should be noted that this table reflects only those valid data avail-
able from MADE over the period 1969 to 1971.  Previous discussions pertaining to
the inclusion of State and local data in NADB are applicable.  Accordingly, because
the table does not include all operating stations, it should not be construed as
representing the total number of monitoring sites for which measurements exceed air
quality standards.

3.2.1  AQCR  Summary

     Table 3-9 presents a summary of the number of stations in each AQCR for which
measurements are available through the NADB and which exceed NAAQS.*  Under the an-
nual standard headings  (ANNUAL) the number of stations  (#STA) includes only those
reporting data that meet the validity criteria for computing representative annual
statistics.  Short-term standards (24-hour, 1-hour, etc.) are appraised at these sta-
tions and at any additional stations reporting at least one quarter of valid data.
Therefore, the number for #STA under short-term standards may be larger than in
the corresponding column under annual standards.

     Stations with less than a complete year of data have been included in the apprai-
sal of short-term standards because the data, even though fragmentary, could include
values exceeding a short-term standard and should not be disregarded.  The fact that
data from such stations do not indicate violations of a short-term standard, however,
is not conclusive evidence that the standard has been met.  (The identity of individ-
ual stations that exceeded the standard and an indication of whether they reported a
year's valid data are presented in Appendix G.)
*Note  that  the NADB does not yet provide  the basis  for a  truly representative over-
view of national  air quality.  Therefore, the  inferences  with respect to the numbers
of stations meeting or not meeting  standards should be interpreted with this in mind.
                                                                                   3-17

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No. of AQCR's reporting sufficient annual data
No. of AQCR's exceeding secondary annual guide
No. of AQCR's exceeding primary annual standard
No. of AQCR's reporting only sufficient quarterly data
No. of AQCR's reporting insufficient data to compare to NAAQS
Carbon monoxide
Total AQCR's in each priority class
No. of AQCR's reporting sufficient quarterly or annual data
No. of AQCR's exceeding any primary standard
Oxidants
Total AOCR's in each priority class
No. of AQCR's reporting sufficient quarterly or annual data
No. of AQCR's exceeding any primary standard
                                                                                                   3-19

-------
       Table 3-8.  STANDARDS STATUS OF MONITORING STATIONS BY POLLUTANT,  1969-1971

Suspended parti culates
Total stations with year's valid data3
Exceeding annual secondary standard
Exceeding annual primary standard
Total stations with 1 or more valid quarters
Exceeding 24-hr secondary standard
Exceeding 24-hr primary standard
Sulfur dioxide
Total stations with year's valid data3
Exceeding annual primary standard
Total stations with 1 or more quarter's valid data
Exceeding 24-hr secondary standard
Exceeding 24-hr primary standard
Carbon monoxide
Total stations with 1 or more quarter's valid data3
Exceeding 1-hr standard
Exceeding 8-hr standard
Total oxidants or ozone
Total stations with 1 or more quarter's valid data3
Exceeding 1-hr standard
Number of stations
1969
667
638
335
1095
594
184

178
24
234
72
54

35
3
29

38
37
1970
644
459
319
1002
530
161

155
19
276
52
34

48
10
39

45
43
1971
640
426
275
1313
628
140

153
4
409
60
17

58
7
53

50
50
     Sufficient data available from which statistics can be calculated.

     These are considered to be air quality guides rather than standards.

       In Table 3-9,  the columns  under SULFUR DIOXIDE parallel those for suspended par-
  ticulates,  with  the addition of a column for the number of stations at which the 3-
  hour  standard was  exceeded.   This column can apply only to instrument  methods produc-
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  been  rigorously  substantiated.   Appendix G, which summarizes the status at each indi-
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       Conversely, because  CARBON MONOXIDE and OXIDANTS have only short-term standards,
  all stations  with  at least one  quarter's valid data are counted.


  3.2.2   Station Summary

       A detailed  summary listing individual stations and their standing with respect
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  tively by AQCR.   In the case of Interstate Regions, the listing of stations is also
  subdivided  by State within each AQCR.
3-20


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  3.3   SUMMARY  OF EMISSIONS DATA
       As previously discussed, emissions data, because of the shorter history of their
  collection on a systematic basis, are less abundant than air quality data.   Further,
  unlike air quality data, emissions data are largely inferential (i.e.,  derived from
  emission factors) and partly the result of direct physical measurement.

  3.3.1  National Summary

       Table 3-10 presents a summary of nationwide emission estimates.  The top half
  shows the nationwide emission totals resulting from the summation of individual AQCR
  totals as found in the State Implementation Plans.  AQCR totals were obtained by means
  of a comprehensive emission inventorying technique.  This technique involves estima-
  ting a majority of the emissions on a point-by-point basis, where such parameters as
  fuel rates, process rates, control equipment, and efficiencies are known.  In the case
  of area sources, for example, motor vehicle emissions, vehicle miles of travel, aver-
  age vehicle speeds, and vehicle population and age distribution are all considered in
  determining the total emissions for that source category.

       The SIP emissions data presented should be viewed with some caution.  First, be-
  cause several Regions do not contain a complete set of data for all pollutants,

                       Table 3-10.   COMPARISON OF SIP EMISSIONS

                               AND 1970 NATIONWIDE ESTIMATES

                                       (106 tons/yr)
Source category
SIP emissions3
Transportation
Fuel combustion in
stationary sources
Industrial processes
Solid waste disposal
Miscellaneous
Total
1970 nationwide estimates'3'0
Transportation
Fuel combustion in
stationary sources
Industrial processes
Solid waste disposal
Miscellaneous
Total
SOX

0.8
28.9
7.8
0.1
0.2
37.8

1.0
26.4
6.4
0.1
0.2
34.1
PM

1.1
9.9
10.3
11.1
1.1
23.5

0.8
6.7
13.3
1.4
4.0
26.2
CO

100.9
1.5
10.3
3.4
2.3
118.4

111.0
0.8
11.4
7.2
18.3
249.0
HC

18.0
1.0
4.3
1.2
1.5
26.0

19.5
0.6
5.5
2.0
7.3
34.9
NOX

11.6
9.2
0.6
0.3
0.2
21.9

11.7
10.0
0.2
0.4
0.5
22.8
In-
             Source:   State  Implementation  Plans.
             Source:   GAP  Reference  Book of Nationwide Emissions, 1970.
             ternal  Document,  ATD, NSIS, Durham, N.C.
            GNot adjusted  for  1975 motor vehicle testing procedure or changes
             in  estimating procedures as discussed in trends section.
3-44

-------
nationwide totals derived from these data will not be complete.  Second, the emissions
for all Regions are not necessarily for the same year.  Most of the existing data are
referenced to the calender year 1970.  Third, it is not known whether all States used
the same emission factors or estimating techniques in deriving their emission totals.
For example, the ratio of CO from transportation to regional population varies to a
much higher degree than one would expect because of differences in traffic flow and
vehicle miles of travel.

     Finally, these SIP emissions were calculated on the basis of the 1972 automotive
testing procedure.  Presently, emissions are calculated using the 1975 testing proce-
dure.  This change in testing procedure causes a corresponding change in nationwide
emission rates that is not reflected in Table 3-10.  For purposes of comparison,
nationwide emissions for 1970 are shown based on the 1972 procedure.  Tables pre-
sented subsequently in this report and in the Emissions Trends section show the
emissions based on the 1975 procedure and, thus, are the most up-to-date EPA estimates.

     The bottom half of Table 3-10 presents 1970 nationwide emissions.  These numbers
were derived from nationwide totals of fuel consumption, process weights, and overall
average industry control efficiencies.  For motor vehicles, nationwide averages of
vehicle population and age distribution, average route speeds, and emission factors
were used to derive nationwide totals.  Comparisons made between the results of these
two techniques should be viewed with these differences of procedure in mind.

3.3.2  AQCR Summary

     Appendix H is a summary of detailed emission inventory data as submitted by the
States in their implementation plans.  A separate entry is shown for each of the five
major air pollutants (SC>2, PM, CO, HC, and NOX) with breakdowns for the five most im-
portant source categories.

     These emission values are the numbers used by the States in control strategy cal-
culations.  They are representative of 1970 for most of the States, but some data are
reported for 1966, 1968, and 1969.  These emissions estimates, together with current
air quality data, were used in rollback models to determine the percentage reduction
in emissions necessary to attain NAAQS.

     Three different summaries are presented.  One shows the emission totals for the
entire AQCR for interstates only, the second is a summary of AQCR portions within
States,  and the third shows statewide totals.  (All three summaries, in addition, con-
tain the emission densities by pollutant in both tons per square kilometer and tons
per person.)

     No attempt has been made to compare Regions according to pollutant density in
order to develop an emissions priority classification system.  The primary reason
is that the emission estimates were derived and calculated from a variety of sources.
Since estimating techniques and, perhaps, emission factors varied from state to
state, any comparisons made between States or between Regions would be of limited
value.  Also,  factors such as meteorology, topography, and source location must be
considered.
                                                                                  3-45

-------

-------
                  4.    AIR  QUALITY  AND  EMISSIONS  TRENDS
     Information derived from air quality monitoring programs  serves  two  fundamental
purposes.  First, the data they yield provide a quantitative assessment of air  qual-
ity on a nationwide basis.  This information is essential in order to identify  prob-
lems requiring particular attention and remedial control action.   It  has  already been
explained in this report how air quality information is used to identify  the  relative
severity of regional air contamination by specific pollutants  through the Priority
Classification system.  Second, air quality data, reflecting successive measurements
of the same pollutant over extended periods, provide an indication of the way in
which particular concentration parameters vary with time.  These  variations are usu-
ally quite complex because of the variety of factors that affect  them (Appendix D).
Assuming, however, that through appropriate analytical procedures, meaningful trends
can be identified and described, the value of sequential pollutant measurements on an
areal basis can be quite useful.  This is because such trends  could provide a. clear
picture of the rate at which SIP control measures are effective in achieving  NAAQS.

     A considerable amount of effort has been expended in the  development and applica-
tion of statistical techniques for the determination of basic  trend information from
diffuse and complex data sets.  Analytical procedures developed for this  purpose have
been established to the point that trend analyses can now be applied.

     This chapter is largely devoted to the analyses of air quality data  available at
this time with the view of presenting such long- and short-term trends for specific
pollutants as the current data can justify.  The Office of Air and Water  Programs, on
the basis of detailed studies, is oriented to the view that the difficulties  in gen-
erating useful and indicative trend analyses at this time are  caused  less by  the in-
herent complexities of the problem than they are by areas of incompleteness and un-
certainties of information reliability that pervade the available data base.  As dis-
cussed earlier, however, it is expected that, as the monitoring activities under the
SIP's become fully operational, both the quality and quantity  of  the  data base  will
progressively improve and that this improvement will be reflected in  a higher level
of reliability of future trend analyses than is possible at this  time.

     In addition to trends in air quality, this chapter also presents  a summary
account of emissions trends on a nationwide basis by source category.   As previously
discussed, similar information on an AQCR basis is not available.   Because of the
causal relationship between emissions and air quality, it would be very desirable to
have emissions information for each AQCR for a time period corresponding  to that for
which air quality data exist.  Emissions information of this kind would provide in-
sight into the relationship between air quality trends and the enforcement of emis-
sions control measures.

4.1  NATIONWIDE EMISSIONS TRENDS

     Emissions trends discussed are based on data for five major  air pollutants (S02,
PM, CO, HC, and NOX) over the period 1940 to 1970.*  Levels of emissions  were estima-
ted by means of various indicators such as national totals of  fuel consumption, re-
fuse burning rates, vehicle miles of travel, industrial production rates,  and control
*A much more detailed discussion,  including tables  and methodology,  is presented  in
Nationwide Air Pollutant Emission  Trri.ds,  1940-1970, AP-115.
                                         4-1

-------
    efficiencies.  Average  emission factors, which relate  these indicators to emission
    rates  for specific  source  categories, were used  in deriving the estimates.   It  is
    believed that  these estimates provide fairly reliable  representations of nationwide
    emission totals.

        The accuracy of the estimates for different pollutants varies.  For CO, NOX, and
    SC>2, the estimates  should  be reasonably good because detailed studies have been com-
    pleted and overall  source  control efficiencies are known.  For particulate matter and
    hydrocarbons,  information  on the extent and degree of  control exercised in some source
    categories is  not yet complete; therefore, estimates of PM and HC emission levels are
    not as accurate.

        Yearly fluctuations in emission levels for  some source categories are difficult
    to detect.  For example, changes in the sulfur content of fuels can vary significant-
    ly from  one year to the next.  In the absence of continual and systematic updating of
    information, only estimates of such changes can  be made.  Over a longer time-frame
    of 5 to  20 years, however, not only are mere fluctuations easier to detect,  but their
    impact is more readily  apparent than is true on  a year-to-year basis.


        Estimated nationwide  totals of  emission levels over a  30-year time  span are pre-
    sented in Table  4-1. The  yearly emission rate is categorized according  to controll-
    able and miscellaneous  (uncontrollable) emissions.

        These estimates reflect the latest EPA data on emission factors and source acti-
    vity rates as  well  as the  use of the 1975 testing procedure method  of estimating
    motor  vehicle  emissions.   The 1975 testing procedure is thought to be more repre-
    sentative of actual driving conditions that the  old 1972 procedure.  Miscellaneous
    sources  include  forest  fires, structural fires,  and other pollutant origins  over
    which  man has  no real effective control.  It is  important to note that not all
    natural  sources  of  pollution are included because of the lack of information on
    totals or emission  factors.  Figures 4-1, 4-2, and 4-3 depict the change in  emission
    rate with time.  Pollutants related  to the quantity of fuels burned, i.e., CO,  HC,
    and NOx, increase almost logarithmically.  Data  for CO and HC suggest the beginning
    of the anticipated  downward trend in 1968 that was coincidental with the advent of
    motor  vehicle  controls.  Pollutants more related to the quality of fuels, i.e., S02
    and PM,  show a more erratic behavior with time.


        Over the  30-year interval, total CO emissions increased at a compound rate of
    1.5 percent per year.   The emissions from automotive sources, however, have  increased
    at an  annual rate of nearly 4.0 percent.  The difference in growth rates between auto-
    motive CO and  total CO  is  accounted for by a proportionally greater reduction in
    emissions from stationary  fuel combustion and miscellaneous sources than from automo-
    tive sources.

        Hydrocarbon emissions increased about 1.7 percent annually from 1940 to 1970.
    Automotive sources  alone represent a rate increase of  nearly 3.3 percent.  The  control
    of hydrocarbons  from the crankcase  (or blowby) reduced average per-vehicle emissions
    by one-third in  the early  1960's.  This resulted in an HC emission growth rate  from
    vehicles lower than the CO growth rate.

        For the period 1940 to 1970, the growth rates of  NOX emissions from motor  vehi-
    cles and stationary fuel combustion sources were very  similar, being 4.8 percent and
    3.7 percent, respectively. Over the period 1940 to 1960, however, the average  road
    vehicle  emission growth rate was 4.9 percent, and the  stationary fuel combustion
    source growth  rate  was  only 2.0 percent.  During the period I960 to 1970, these trends
    were reversed, and  the  road vehicle emission growth rate was 4.6 percent as  opposed
    to a 7.3 percent increase  for stationary fuel combustion sources.  Over the  last 10
    years, NOX emissions from  steam-electric power plants  increased at a rate of 7.4 per-
    cent.
4-2

-------
         Table 4-1.  ESTIMATED TOTAL
NATIONWIDE EMISSION LEVELS, 1940-1970

(106 tons/yr)

1940 Controllable
Misc. (uncontrollable)3
Total
1950 Controllable
Misc. (uncontrollable)
Total
1960 Controllable
Misc. (uncontrollable)
Total
1968 Controllable
Misc. (uncontrollable)
Total
1969 Controllable
Misc. (uncontrollable)
Total
1970 Controllable
Misc. (uncontrollable)
Total
S02
22.2
0.6
22.8
24.3
0.6
24.9
22.6
0.6
23.2
30.5
0.6
31.1
31.9
0.2
32.1
33.3
0.1
33.4
PM
19.2
25.7
44.9
20.8
12.4
33.2
21.0
8.9
29.9
22.5
5.9
28.4
22.8
12.2
35.0
22.3
3.2
25.5
CO
42.5
30. q
72.5
62.3
20.6
82.9
79.3
19.3
98.6
93.4
18.0
111.4
97.6
17.5
115.1
96.0
4.7
100.7
HC
10.1
D.5
16.6
15.6
6.2
21.8
18.8
7.0
25.8
22.1
7.6
29.7
21.9
6. '•'..
28.7
22.5
4.?
27.3
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5.5
1.0
6.5
8.2
0.6
8.8
10.9
0.5
11.4
19.1
0.4
19.5
20.6
0.5
21.1
22.0
0.1
22.1
           Uncontrollable  sources  include forest fires, structural fires, coal
           refuse  banks, some  agricultural burning, and some solvent
           evaporation.
     Figure 4-2 presents the SC>2 emissions from 1940 to 1970.  The total emissions
increased very slightly from 1940 to 1960, but then increased rapidly at a rate of
2.6 percent per year from 1960 to ..970.  Emissions from steam-electric utilities
increased logarithmically over the 30-year interval at a rate of around 6.6 percent
per year, nearly five times the rate for S02 overall.   Emissions from industrial pro-
cesses have also increased over the same time period,  but at a rather low rate (1.9
percent).  All other source categories show a decrease in emissions with time.


     Particulate emissions from controllable sources (Figure 4-3) have shown almost
no change with time (20 million tons in 1940 versus almost 22 million in 1970).  This
is attributed, in part, to changing fuel patterns and increased effectiveness of con-
trols on power plants and industrial process sources.   Process-loss emissions have
increased very slowly, however, over the 30-year interval, whereas overall stationary
fuel emissions have declined at a fairly constant rate of 1.1 percent.  The rates of
change for the various pollutant emission levels by source category are presented in
Table 4-2.
                                                                                     4-3

-------
        1940
1950
1970
                        YEAR
                                                  1940
     Figure 4-1.  Nationwide emissions for HC,
     GO, and NOX (1940-1970).
                                                      1960
                                           1970
                                                                  YEAR
                                 Figure 4-2.  Nationwide SOo emissions
                                 (1940-1970).
   4.2  NATIONWIDE AIR QUALITY TRENDS

       Air quality trends are assessed by  the measurement  of  changes  in specific pollu-
   tant concentrations on a pollutant-by-pollutant basis.   At  this  time, it  is not feas-
   ible to evaluate air quality on the basis of a single number  or  index that would com-
   bine the contributions of all pollutant  concentrations.  The  techniques employed con-
   sist essentially of partitioning the historical data records  into discrete time inter-
   vals.  Valid data for these intervals  are then successively compared to determine the
   magnitudes and directions of changes in  pollutant  level  concentrations.   The lengths
   of the intervals for which the comparisons are made are  determined,  in large part, by
   whether short- or long-term trends are being studied.  In general,  short-term trends
   may exhibit considerable variability because of transient effects such as those of
   meteorological origin.  Fluctuations of  this kind  tend to be  averaged out over long
   time intervals, however.

       This chapter presents analyses of air quality trends based  on  NASN and CAMP
   data on both a regional and site basis.

   4.2.1  NASN Trends

       This section examines national and  geographic trends  in  total  suspended particu-
   lates and sulfur dioxide by analyzing  data collected through  the National Air Sur-
   veillance Networks.  As previously discussed, the  NASN  is  a Federally funded air qual-
   ity monitoring network operated with the assistance and  cooperation of State and lo-
   cal agencies.  The NASN program was begun in the mid-1950's with 17 urban stations,
   and grew to approximately  150 TSP-sampling stations located throughout the United
   States by the mid-1960's.  The number  of stations  that comprise  the NASN has fluctu-
   ated from year to year and reached its zenith  in  1971-72 when over  260 TSP and 200
   S02 stations were maintained.  Presently, there are some 258  TSP and 202  SC>2 sampling
   stations located  in  the  50 states  and  Puerto Rico.

       When the NASN was established, resource limitations dictated placement of only
   one station in each  major  urban  area.   Stations were  located primarily in the down-
   town or center-city  areas  and, hence,  do not necessarily reflect the "worst" air qual-
   ity to be found through  heavily  industrialized portions  of many cities.   For this
4-4

-------
                                      1950        1960
                                          YEAR
                        Figure 4-3.  Nationwide paniculate matter
                        emissions (1940-1970).
                   Table 4-2.  RATES OF CHANGE FOR  NATIONWIDE EMISSIONS
                                         (percent)
Pollutant category
CO - Total
CO - Road vehicles
HC - Total
HC - Road vehicles
NOX- Total
NOX- Road vehicles
NOX- Fuel combustion
NOX- Steam- electric utilities
SOX- Total
SOX- Fuel combustion
SOX- Steam-electric utilities
SOX- Industrial process
PM - Total
PM - Industrial process
PM - Fuel combustion
PM - Steam-electric utilities
Population - U.S. total
1940-1970
1.1
4.0
1.7
3.3
4.2
4.8
3.7
7.1
" •}
1.5
6.6
1.9
-1.9
1.4
-1.1
2.1
1.45
1940-1960
1.5
4.3
? ?
t.t
4.3
2.9
;.9
2.0
6.9
0.6
0.2
6.5
1.3
-2.0
1.5
-1.1
4.1
1.53
1960-1970
0.2
3.4
0.6
1.0
6.8
4.6
7.3
7.4
2.6
4.2
6.7
3.0
-1.6
1.1
-1.1
-1.8
1.27
reason, there may be  differences between the air quality measurements summarized in
this section and  those obtained by State monitoring  systems used in developing State
Implementation Plans.
                                                                                        4-5

-------
      The trends discussed are based on both annual means and maximum 24-hour values.
 Urban, nonurban, and geographic trends are examined over a 12-year period for TSP and
 over an 8-year period for S02-  For this analysis, the period 1960 through 1971 has
 been divided into three intervals consisting of the years 1960 through 1963, 1964
 through 1967, and 1968 through 1971.  The analysis, while focusing primarily on air
 quality concentration levels and trends over the extended 12-year period, is also
 designed to present limited evaluation of trends during the most recent interval,
 1968 through 1971.  This is accomplished by utilizing both statistical tests and
 graphical presentations.  Long- and short-term trends in annual means are assessed
 by statistical tests based on comparisons among annual geometric means for various
 years.  A tabulation of individual NASN stations showing yearly annual averages and
 trend summaries is presented in Appendix F.  Graphical presentations, utilizing com-
 posite averages of annual geometric means, annual arithmetic means, and 24-hour
 maximum concentrations appear later in this chapter.*  In forming the composite aver-
 age, missing values were derived by interpolation in order to form a complete set of
 values at a given site for the entire time period considered.

 4.2.1.1  Total suspended particulates

 4.2.1.1,1  Urban trends - A summary of urban trends is presented in Table 4-3.  For
 the 12-year period, the averages of the annual geometric mean TSP values for 1960
 through 1963 are compared with those for 1968 through 1971; for the 8-year period,
 the equivalent comparison is made between 1964 through 1967 and 1968 through 1971;
 for the 4-year period, a similar comparison is made among recent short-term changes
 since 1968.  All comparisons are made for the same set of ranges of particulate levels.
 Significant upward and downward trends are indicated as well as a "no change" cate-
 gory.  The trends are grouped according to the air quality in the base period - that
 is, the air quality of the earliest interval.  The last line (Total) indicates the
 total number of stations showing trends in each of the time periods.  From the table,
 it can be seen that of the 116 stations in the 12-year period, 66 exhibited downward
 trends, 8 displayed significant upward trends, and 42 indicated no change.  This long-
 term decline in total suspended particulate matter is essentially reiterated in the
 8-year period.  Of the 119 stations, 53 display a downward trend, whereas only 3 de-
 monstrate a significant upward trend.  The most recent short-term picture is some-
 what different in that no significant net trend is discernible.
      Table 4-3.  SUMMARY OF TRENDS IN ANNUAL MEAN SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER

                   CONCENTRATIONS AT URBAN NASN STATIONS, 1960-1971
Annual TSP
concentrations
in base
period,
Jjg/m3
150 < 250
90 < 150
60 < 90
< 60
Total
Number of stations
Long-term: 12 years
60-63 avg. to 68-71 avg.
Up

2
6

8
No
change
4
13
20
5
42
Down
8
44
13
1
66
Total
12
59
39
6
116
Last 8 years
64-67 avg. to 68-71 avg.
UP

2
1

3
No
change
1
26
29
7
63
Down
4
32
17

53
Total
5
60
47
7
119
Short-term: 4 years
1968 to present
Up

3
9
9
21
No
change
2
48
72
13
136
Down
2
12
.. 5

20
Total
6
63
86
22
177
 *It should be noted that for 24-hour measurements, the maximum concentration is equi-
 valent to the 99th percentile for a sample size of 26.
4-6

-------
      Individual short-term trends must be evaluated in the context of long-term trends.
For example, only two stations with long-term upward trends also show significant upward
trends in the last four years.  Seven stations, which appear to demonstrate statisti-
cally significant increases in the last four years, in fact, show minor reversals of
much larger significant downward trends over the whole 12-year- period.  In a more de-
tailed analysis of the short-term trends, it was found that there was an apparent asso-
ciation between sites that showed an upward trend and those that  also experienced de-
creased rainfall.  This is discussed more fully in Section 4.2.1.1.4, Geographic Trends
for TSP.

     Table 4-3 also indicates that downward trends are associated with higher concen-
trations during the base period (>90 yg/m3), whereas  the upward trends are associa-
ted with lower concentration levels (<90 pg/m3).  This is also true for the change in
the maximum 24-hour TSP concentration as shown in Table 4-4.  It should be noted that
statistical tests were not employed for determining trends in maximum daily TSP
measurements.  Accordingly, Table 4-4 displays the direction of changes UP and DOWN,
and change magnitudes are presented as percentages.  This table shows that within the
downward changes, the larger percentage decreases are associated with the higher con-
centrations for the base period and, for the positive changes, the larger percentage
increases are associated with the lower concentrations for the base period.  There-
fore, both the trends in the annual geometric means and the changes in the maximum
24-hour TSP concentrations demonstrate that locations with the worst problems have
shown the most improvement while the cleaner areas have shown a tendancy to degrada-
tion.  It should be noted that the recent time interval (1968 to present) contains
a larger proportion of positive changes than do the prior periods, but these are
still largely at smaller concentration levels.
   Table 4-4.
SUMMARY OF CHANGE IN THE MAXIMUM DAILY SUSPENDED PARTICIPATE MATTER
   CONCENTRATIONS AT URBAN NASN STATIONS, 1960-1971
                                         Number of stations
TSP
concentrations
period, vg/nr
> 250
50 < 250
90 < 150
60 < 90
Total
60-63 avg. to 68-71 avg.
Total
Down
54
39
7
0
100
Up
4
7
4
1
16
Percent change
<-25
44
24
4

72
+25
12
20
7
1
40
>25
2
2


4
64-67 avg. to 68-71 avg.
Total
Down
47
41
11

99
Up
4
10
5
1
20
Percent change
<-25
37
30
5

72
±25
14
14
10

38
>25

7
1
1
9
1968 to present
Total
Down
45
41
10
2
98
Up
15
37
22
4
78
Percent change
<-25
31
12
2

45
±25
21
54
20
3
98
>25
8
12
10
3
33
     In summary, both the majority of the annual means and of the maximum 24-hour
values declined over the 12-year period.  Most of the decline appears to have occurred
prior to 1968.  Figures 4-4 and 4-5 display this trend.  In Figure 4-4, the composite
mean is 110 vig/m^ for 1960 and 85 yg/m3 for 1971.  In Figure 4-5, both the composite
averages of the maximum values and the 90th percentiles of the annual maximum values
are plotted.  Note that the plots of both the 90th percentiles and the composite aver-
ages smooth out the extreme fluctuations of the annual and maximum values.  The com-
posite average of the maximum values is 270 yg/m^ for 1960 and 200 ug/m^ for 1971.
The plot of the 90th percentile also exhibits a downward trend.  Note that the range
in annnal values appears to be decreasing as well.

4.2.1.1.2  Comparison to standards - Table 4-5 presents, year by year, the percentage
of NASN stations whose measurements exceed the primary and secondary annual mean stan-
                                                                                    4-7

-------

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    Figure 4-4.  Composite annual means of total suspended paniculate at urban and nonurban
    NASN stations.
dards and the primary and secondary 24-hour maximum standards.   Although the popula-
tion of stations  changes from year to year, the percent of stations exceeding  each of
the standards did decrease over the 12-year period.*  There is no bias attributable
to the change in  station population.  A subset of 95 stations, which had at least one

*This population  of stations is a subset of the total number of stations that  were
compared in Table 3-8.

-------
        1000
         800
         600
     ce
     o.
     o
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                                           COMPOSITE AVG
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                                             i
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                                            YEAR

     Figure 4-5.  Composite average and  90th percentiles of annual maximum daily suspended par-
     ticulate matter concentrations at 95 urban NASN stations.


data point in each of the  three  4-year intervals, showed essentially the  same decrease
in the percent of stations exceeding each of the standards over the 12-year period.
From the early sixties  to  the  early seventies, the percentage of stations  exceeding
the primary annual standard decreased from approximately 80 to approximately  60 per-
cent; those exceeding secondary  annual standards decreased from approximately 90  to
approximately 80 percent;  and those exceeding the primary and secondary 24-hour max-
imum standards decreased from approximately 40 to approximately 20 percent, and  90
to 70 percent, respectively.
4.2.1.1.3  Nonurban trends  - Trends  at nonurban stations were also examined  in  a sim-
                                               Over the 12-year period  (I960  through
                                                                The downward  trends
ilar manner and are  summarized in Table 4-6.
1971), the majority  of  stations showed no significant change.
that appear in the analysis  of the last 8 years have been effectively  cancelled by
the upward trends in the  last  4 years.  This effect can also be seen in  Figure 4-4
as the dip in the nonurban composite average for 1968 and 1969.  It is interesting to
note that 9 of the 10 significant upward trends in the 1968 through 1971 period
occurred in areas with  decreased rainfall during that time period.  Only Cape Hatter-
as showed a significant increase associated with increased rainfall.   This  is dis-
cussed in greater detail  in  the following section.

4.2.1.1.4  Geographic trends - Station locations were categorized according to the
four geographic regions defined by the Bureau of the Census:  North Central,  North-
east, South, and West.  These  regions are outlined in Figure 4-6.
                                                                                      4-9

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           Table 4-6.  TRENDS IN ANNUAL MEAN SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER

                 CONCENTRATIONS AT NONURBAN NASN STATIONS, 1960-1971
Type of trend
Up
No change
Down
Low (< 10 ug/m3)
No. of stations
Number of stations
12 years
1960-1971
2
11
5
--
18
Last 8 years
1964-1971
1
9
11
--
21
Last 4 years
1968-1971
10
17
0
2
29
     Composite TSP annual averages (Figure 4-7) for the Northeast and North Central
United States have been consistently greater than those for the South and the West.
The composite averages for each group showed a decrease in TSP over the entire 12-
year period (1960 through 1971).

     Although the Northeast had the highest concentration during the early sixties,
its level is now comparable with that of the North Central region.  The West, whose
TSP concentration was initially higher than that of the South, improved greatly to-
ward the mid-sixties.  Because of a minor trend reversal in the early seventies, how-
ever, its TSP level is now comparable to that of the South.

     The statistically significant trends indicated in Table 4-7 show that a major-
ity of sites in each region have demonstrated improvement in air quality over the
long-term periods.  Some minor differences do exist among the regional trends.  The
West, although showing the greatest overall improvement since the early sixties, has
shown an increase in the number of stations undergoing degradation during the most
recent 4 years.  In fact, upward trends seem to be most prevalent west of the Missis-
sippi, as shown in Figure 4-8.  Some upward trends also occurred in the New England
States.  The geographical pattern of these upward trends, which occurred within a
relatively short-term period  (4 years), suggested possible meteorological influences.
Of the various meteorological parameters examined, rainfall showed the greatest evi-
dence of a possible association with TSP trends.  To test this, average annual rain-
fall data were extracted from the Local Climatological Data summaries for about 70
National Weather Service stations distributed across the country.  Averages for the
first 2 years (1968 and 1969) were compared with those for the second 2 years (1970
and 1971), and the net rainfall changes were noted.  It was found that, for stations
showing a significant upward trend in TSP west of the Mississippi, 8 of 13 urban sta-
tions and all 6 nonurban stations were located in areas in which rainfall tended to
decrease during the 4-year period.  In the New England States, all three urban sta-
tions (which showed increasing concentrations) and the sole nonurban station were al-
so in areas where average rainfall showed a decreasing tendency.  In addition, two
other nonurban sites east of the Mississippi showed upward trends in areas of de-
creased rainfall.  A corresponding association could not be found between areas of
decreasing TSP trends and increasing rainfall.

     The above discussion may suggest that the decrease in rainfall in certain areas
toward the latter part of the period may have caused significant upward trends in
TSP at some stations.  Certainly, decreased moisture from rainfall may increase parti-
culate matter entrained into the atmosphere from the surface and may decrease the
chances for rainfall removal of airborne particulates (See discussion in Appendix D).
The extent that precipitation changes may have contributed to TSP trends cannot be
quantified at present, however.  Therefore, the apparent association found between
upward TSP trend and decreased rainfall, although notable, should not be taken as the
sole reason or even the primary explanation for the observed trends.  Other forces
                                                                                   4-11

-------
                                                                                                                           0>
                                                                                                                           O
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-------
                        o
                        I—
                        o:
                          100
                        o
                        LU
                        O
                          75
                          50
                          25
	NORTHEAST
	NORTH CENTRAL
	WEST
	SOUTH
                             1960
 1965
YEAR
                                                             1971
                        Figure 4-7   Regional comparisons of com-
                        posite anrjal mean suspended particulate
                        matter concentrations at urban NASN stations.
    Table 4-7.   REGIONAL SUMMARY OF TRENDS  IN ANNUAL  MEAN  SUSPENDED PARTICULATE

              MATTER CONCENTRATIONS AT URBAN NASN STATIONS,  1960-1971
Regions
North Central
Northeast
South
West
Puerto Rico
Total
Long-term (12 years) ,
1960-1971
Up
3
2
3
0
0
8
No
change
12
11
14
5
0
42
Down
24
14
11
17
0
66
Total
39
27
28
22
0
116
Last 8 years,
1964-1971
Up
1
1
0
1
0
3
No
change
24
9
14
16
0
63
Down
16
13
16
8
0
53
Total
41
23
30
25
0
119
Short-term (4 years),
1968-1971
UP
4
5
3
7
2
21
No
change
41
32
38
22
3
136
Down
6
4
8
2
0
20
Total
51
41
49
31
5
177
that were also at work  in determining the trends include changes in emission regula-
tions, technology,  fuel use,  and weather factors such as winds, temperature, humid-
ity, etc.

     The composite  averages of the maximum values for each of the regions were plot-
ted for the years 1960  through 1971 (Figure 4-9).  The trends in composite average
maximum values follow the trends displayed in Figure 4-7 for composite annual avera-
ges.  Over the 12-year  period, these trends declined in each of the regions.

4.2.1.2  Sulfur dioxide

4.2.1.2.1  Urban trends - The analysis of S02 trends covers the 8-year period, 1964
through 1971, because valid data prior to 1964 are too sparse to support generaliza-
tions about the national situation.  Only 32 NASN stations had sufficient S02 data
over the 8-year period  to permit trend assessment.  The graph of composite annual
arithmetic mean concentrations of sulfur dioxide at 32 urban NASN stations, Figure
4-10, shows a marked decline  over the 1964 through 1971 period.  The composite average
of the maximum values and the range of the annual maximum values are presented in Fig-
ure 4-11.  These trends demonstrate a marked decline over the 8-year period.  This
                                                                                      4-13

-------
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Figure 4-9.
Regional comparisons of
com-
posite average annual maximum daily sus-
pended paniculate matter concentrations a
urLan NASN stations.
0
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                       Figure 4-10.  Composite annual means of sul-
                       fur dioxide at 32 NASN stations.
QUU
600
400

200


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Figure 4-11.  Composite average of annual
maximum daily sulfur dioxide concentrations
at 32  urban NASN stations.
                                                                    4-15

-------
 decline  is  attributable,  in  some measure, to the  institution  of regulations  in various
 sections of the  country requiring reduced sulfur  content  in coal and  fuel  oils.

      The arithmetic  annual means are  shown both in  Figure 4-10 and  also  later with
 respect  to  standards.  Because  the  distribution of  air  quality measurements  is gen-
 erally considered to be more nearly log-normal than symmetrical, geometric means  have
 also been used in the  statistical analysis of SC>2 trends  in an attempt to  improve the
 sensitivity of the tests.  The  choice of mean should not  affect overall  trend patterns.

      Table  4-8 shows a net downward trend over the  8-year period.   More  recent trends
 in SC>2 are  evidenced by examining data from a total of  95 stations  that  had  sufficient
 data during the  last 4-year  interval  to be meaningful.  Of the 95 stations,  nearly
 half  (42) show downward trends, and another third (33)  have annual  means so  low  (less
 than 10  yg/m3) that  detection of trends is both statistically difficult  and  unrealistic.
 Thus,  the rate of improvement in S02  air quality  has been dramatic  enough  to be read-
 ily detectable even  over  the past few years.

              Table 4-8.  SUMMARY OF TRENDS IN ANNUAL MEAN SULFUR DIOXIDE

                     CONCENTRATIONS AT URBAN NASN STATIONS, 1964-1971
Type of trend
Up
No change
Down
Low (< 10 yg/m3)
Total No. of stations
Number of stations
8 years
1964-1971
1
12
19
--
32
Last 4 years
1968-1971
3
17
42
33
95
       The change in the maximum 24-hour S02  values  for urban NASN stations is shown
  in Table 4-9.   The changes are overwhelmingly  downward,  31 down and 1 up.  In the
  most recent 4-year period, 62 are down and  31  are  up. The analysis of the maximum
  24-hour S02 values supports the earlier finding of a marked decline in S02 levels at
  urban stations.

       Table 4-9.  SUMMARY OF CHANGE IN MAXIMUM  S02  DAILY  CONCENTRATIONS AT URBAN
                                NASN STATIONS, 1964-1971
S02
concentration
in base
period,
ug/m3
> 300
180 <_ 300
90 <_ 180
30 <_ 90
<_ 30
Total
Number of stations
1964-1967 avg. to 1968-1971 avg.
Total
Dqwn
6
6
10
9
31
Up
1
1
Percent change
<-25
6
6
9
4
25
± 25
1
6
7
> 25


1968 to present
Total3
Down
7
12
21
12
10
62
Up
3
7
14
7
31
Percent change
<-25
9
19
10
4
43
± 25
7
5
5
9
6
31
> 25
1
4
7
7
19
     Two stations showed no change.
4-16

-------
4.2.1.2.2  Comparison to standards - Table 4-10 presents, year by year, the percen-
tage of NASN stations exceeding the primary and secondary annual mean standards and
the primary and secondary 24-hour maximum standards.  Although the population of
stations changed from year to year, the percent of stations exceeding each of the
standards decreased dramatically over the 8-year period.  In 1964, for 18 stations,
33 percent exceeded the primary annual mean standard, 44 percent exceeded the secon-
dary annual mean standard, 11 percent exceeded the primary 24-hour maximum standard,
and 28 percent exceeded the secondary 24-hour maximum standard.  By 1971, only 0 to
2 percent exceeded any one of the standards.  This reemphasizes the sharp decline in
SC>2 levels over the 8-year period.

4.2.1.2.3  Nonurban trends - Data for sulfur dioxide at nonurban stations are too
sparse to justify a formal analysis, but it can be noted that annual mean S02 concen-
trations at the Kent County, Delaware, station have declined from 21 jag/m^ in 1969 to
5 jug/m^ in 1971, whereas the Acadia National Park, Maine, station has held essentially
constant in the 7 to 9 jag/m^ range over the same 3 years .
4.2.1.2.4  Geographic trends - The four regions, North Central, Northeast, South, and
West, as defined earlier, were examined for trends in SC>2.  Composite annual averages
for each of the regions are displayed in Figure 4-12.  It can be seen that each of
the regions exhibits a downward trend in S02 over the 12-year period.  The Northeast,
with the highest composite average in 1964 of 88 ;jg/m3, showed the most dramatic de-
crease with a composite average of 41 ,ug/m3 in 1971.  Similarly, the North Central
region has declined from 49 jag/m^ to 24 ug/m3, the South from 34 ug/m^ to 14 ;ug/m3,
and the West from 25 ug/m3 to 14 ug/m^ during the same time period.

     The composite average of the maximum values for each of the regions was plotted
for the years 1964 through 1971 in Figure 4-13.  The trends in composite average max-
imum values generally follow the trends shown in Figure 4-12 for composite annual
averages.  With the exception of a minor reversal in 1969 for the West, the trends in
each of the regions are on the decline.

     The statistically significant trends indicated in Table 4-11 show that each of
the regions has demonstrated improvements in SC>2 over the 8- and 4-year periods.
Only 1 site in the North Central region exhibited a significant upward trend in the
8-year period out of a total of 32 in all the regions.  Of tht 95 stations in the 4-
year period, only 3 exhibited a significant upward trend.  Two of these are located
in the Northeast, and one is in the South.  The trends in each of the regions follow
the national trend of a marked decline in S02 at urban stations.

4.2.1.3  Interpretation of results - The result of the NASN S02 analysis has shown
a very pronounced downward long-term trend over the 8-year period, with the composite
average dropping over 50 percent.  A review of nationwide emissions data over the
same time interval, however, shows an increase in 803 emissions from approximately
27 million tons in 1964 to over 33 million tons in 1971 (an increase of over 20 per-
cent) .  Thus, an apparent inconsistency exists between rising nationwide S02 emis-
sions on the one hand and decreasing ambient concentrations on the other.

     The following considerations may be helpful in explaining this apparent incon-
sistency.  First, emissions are determined for the nation as a whole, whereas air
quality data are generally collected for specific sites in center-city locations.
Thus, the impact of changes in and about the sampling sites would have dramatic re-
sults on local air quality measurements but insignificant impact on nationwide emis-
sions.  Second, because of several factors, S02 emission rates in most urban areas
are declining.   The use of coal in residential and small commercial sources is prac-
tically non-existent.   Cleaner fuels such as natural gas and distillate fuel oils
have replaced coal to a large extent.   The impact on total nationwide emissions as a
result of this  fuel replacement is relatively small, but the effect on local air
quality is pronounced.  Third,  large point sources such as power plants are not able
to locate near or in center-city areas.  Strict local regulations and fuel avail-
                                                                                    4-17

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  100
 ^60
o
t  40
   20
                     	NORTHEAST
                     	NORTH CENTRAL
                     	SOUTH
                     	WEST
  19ei             1967                  1971
                   YEAR

Figure 4-12.  Regional comparisons of com-
posite annual arithmetic mean sulfur dioxide
concentrations at urban NASN stations.
  300
            	NORTHEAST
            	 NORTH CENTRAL
            	SOUTH
            	WEST
                                                1
>-
j
o
                                                  100
                                                  50
                                                   1964
                   1967
                    YEAR
1971
                                                 Figure 4-13.  Regional comparisons of com-
                                                 posite average annual maximum daily sulfur
                                                 dioxide concentrations at urban NASN stations.
          Table  4-11.   REGIONAL  SUMMARY OF TRENDS  IN ANNUAL ARITHMETIC MEAN

           SULFUR  DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS AT URBAN  NASN STATIONS,  1964-1971
Regions
North Central
Northeast
South
West
Total stations
Number of stations
8 years, 1964-1971
Up
1



1
No
change
4
1
3
3
11
Down
7
8
4
1
20
Low





Total
12
9
7
4
32
Last 4 years, 1968-1971
Up

2
1

3
No
change
6
7
3
1
17
Down
17
14
7
4
42
Low
4
3
16
10
33
Total
27
26
27
15
95
ability  are determining  factors.  Increased fuel transportation costs favor the gen-
eration  of electricity near the fuel source - e.g., mine-mouth operations  in Penn-
sylvania.   Finally, emissions generated  at ground level,  such as from area sources,
have a much larger impact  on local ambient air quality  than the same emissions from
an elevated point source.
                                                                                         4-19

-------
       Although particulate matter concentrations, like S02, have shown a decrease
  since the early 1960's, the percent reduction has not been as dramatic.  A conflict
  also arises with TSP because, again, nationwide emissions have shown a slight increase
  (about 10 percent) since 1960.  The reasons for this apparent conflict are the same.
  The use of cleaner fuels for home heating and for office buildings would have signif-
  icant impact on center city monitors, but a small impact on total nationwide emis-
  sions.  The increasing controls used on stationary sources such as power plants and
  industries, coupled with relocation, would also contribute to the decreasing air con-
  centrations .

       The percentage of improvement for TSP concentrations has not been as great as
  for SC>2, partly because of the presence of background or noncontrollable "emissions."
  Background concentrations of S02 are essentially zero for urban areas, whereas wind-
  blown dust and pollen result in particulate concentrations for which emission control
  plans will have no impact.  For this reason, particulate emission reductions are not
  as effective in terms of percentage of air quality improvement as are similar reduc-
  tions in SC>2 emissions.

  4.2.2   CAMP  Trends

       The air quality data from the Continuous Air Monitoring Program present an oppor-
  tunity for examining temporal changes in concentrations of various gaseous pollutants.
  This section analyzes both inter-station and inter-pollutant trends for NOX, CO, and
  oxidants.

       CAMP, the Federal government's major effort in providing continuous concurrent
  data for various gaseous air pollutants, was initiated in 1962 and is now administered
  by the Quality Assurance and Environmental Monitoring Laboratory of the Environmental
  Protection Agency.  This laboratory provides necessary technical support and serves
  as the central group for data handling, reduction, and analysis.  It is also the en-
  tity for reporting the operation.  The stations are operated cooperatively with city
  air pollution control agencies that provide the station sites and, sometimes, the
  station operators.  CAMP provides information on short-term (5-minute) concentrations
  of gaseous pollutants.  This sampling frequency makes it possible to monitor rapid
  changes in source strength, meteorology, and accompanying atmospheric reactions, thus
  facilitating study of these variables.

       The pollutants monitored at each CAMP station are identified in Table 4-12 to-
  gether with the measurement techniques utilized.  Identical methods for pollutant con-
  centration measurements and calibration procedures are in use at all stations.

                  Table 4-12.  POLLUTANTS MEASURED AND CURRENT
                    MONITORING METHODS USED AT CAMP STATIONS
                    Pollutant
                Carbon monoxide
                Nitric oxide
                Nitrogen dioxide
                Sulfur dioxide
                Total hydrocarbons
                Methane
         Sampling method
Nondispersive infrared
Saltzman colorimetric
Saltzman colorimetric
Parasosaniline colorimetric
Flame ionization detection
Flame ionization detection
                Total oxidants      j    Neutral buffered potassium iodide

        CAMP  stations  are  located  in Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, Philadelphia,  St.  Louis
   and Washington, D.C.  New Orleans, Los Angeles,  and  San Francisco were previously in-
   cluded  in  the CAMP  network.   The stations  in Chicago, Cincinnati, Philadelphia,  and
4-20

-------
Washington, D.C. have been a part of the program since its inception.  The Washington,
B.C. station was moved to a new location in 1969, temporarily interrupting the data
record process.  The CAMP station locations were chosen, to the degree practicable,
for similarity from city to city.  The stations in every case are located in the down-
town, central-business district, removed from the direct influence of any nearby large
point source.  Other station characteristics (e.g., height of sampling probe) are
standardized to facilitate inter-city comparisons.  It is emphasized, however, that
since a CAMP station constitutes only one sampling site per city, its data do not
necessarily represent air quality levels prevailing beyond the immediate vicinity of
the station.

     Because the samples collected at CAMP stations represent, in a number of urban
areas, the only data available for air quality trend analysis for gaseous pollutants,
the development of national trends is not possible.  In addition, data continuity is
often lacking.  This is particularly true of the total-oxidant data.  Many data dis-
continuities result from changes of site location or procedural methods.

     The relocation of the Washington, D.C. station in 1969 makes a discussion of
trends impossible there since there is no way of estimating the impact of this move
on the recorded air quality levels.  In 1968, the S02 analysis method at all stations
was changed from the conductometric method to the colorimetric pararosaniline method
(West-Gaeke).  Because of this change, trends in S02 will not be considered.  Sub-
sequent to the S02 method change, the original CO instruments (mono-beam-NDIR) were
replaced with dual-beam-NDIR detectors.  These and other important changes and their
possible effects are listed in Table 4-13.
       Table 4-13.   MONITORING METHOD AND PROCEDURAL  CHANGES  AT CAMP  STATIONS
    Year of
    change
        Type of change
       Possible effects
     1968

     1969

     1969


     1970



     1970

     1971
Change in S02 instrumentation
Change in data retrieval  system

Installed blower on intake
 manifold to increase airflow
Change in CO instrumentation.
 Change from helium to N2 for
 CO zero gas
Installation of integrating
 chambers for CO
Change from N2 to air for CO
 calibration gases	
Data discontinuity
Two quarters of data lost
 for some pollutants
Reduces sample time, possibly
 affecting NOX and Ox
Eliminate H20 vapor
 interference

Smooths out concentration
 plots
Eliminate C02 interference
     Even though limitations and problems have been experienced, the CAMP data still
represent the only long-term continuous data base for use in determining trends in
 faseous pollutants for major American cities.  Clearly, caution must be exercised be-
 ore any definite conclusions are reached in the analysis of these data.

4.2.2.1  Trend analysis by pollutant - Trend analysis for CAMP data presented below
is for carbon monoxide, nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide, total oxides of nitrogen
(NO and N02), and total oxidants.  For purposes of comparison, the data are grouped
into two time intervals:  1962 through 1966 and 1967 through 1971.  The data analyzed
for these two time intervals reflect:  (1) the amount of information available for the
year and,  (2) more importantly, the distribution of the data within the -ear,  For
                                                                                    4-21

-------
  example, the data for total oxidants were used in the analysis only when the third
  quarter  (July, August, and September) for the year was sufficiently represented.	Be-
  cause CO follows a generally uniform pattern throughout the year, the distribution of
  these data was less critical than that of total oxidants, NO, and NC>2.  Using this
  approach, the following data were excluded from the analysis:
  Chicago
  Cincinnati

  Denver


  Philadelphia

  St. Louis
                        Pollutant

                        Total oxidant

                        NO and N02
                        Total oxidants
                        NO and NO2
                        Total oxidants

                        Total oxidants

                        Total oxidants
Year(s)

1969

1970
1966, 1969, and 1970
1971
1967, 1909, 1970, and 1971
1969

1968, 1969, and 1970
       Data for carbon monoxide, NO, and N02 were compared  for the time periods  1962
   through  1966 and  1967 through 1971.  This division approximately halves the data rec-
   ords  for Chicago, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia because  data acquisition at^these
   stations began  in 1962.  Data collecting at Denver and  St. Louis began in  1965 and
   1964, respectively; therefore, the period 1967 through  1971 for these cities will in-
   clude more  data than the period  1962 through  1966.  The average concentrations were
   computed for the  two periods, together with the averages  of the annual second  highest
   values.  The averages for  the respective periods provide  an indication of  the  long-
   term trend  component.  On  the other hand, the  averages  of the second highest 1-hour
   values were used  as estimators of changes in extreme values.
     Tables 4-14 through 4-18 present the results of this analysis.
is discussed separately.
                                                                       Each pollutant
   Table 4-14.  CARBON MONOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS MEASURED AT CAMP STATIONS BY NDIR METHOD
                                        ("ig/m3)
Station
Chicago
Cincinnati
Denver
Philadelphia
St. Louis
CAMP average
Annual average concentration
1962-1966
14.6
6.0
8.8
8.3
7.1
9.0
1967-1971
7.8
4.6
7.2
5.7
5.6
6.2
Percent
change
-46
-23
-18
-31
-21
-31
Average of annual 2nd highest
value
1962-1966
47
26
58
45
29
41
1967-1971
41
27
57
33
29
38
Percent
change
-13
+4
-2
-27
0
-7
   4.2.2.1.1  Carbon monoxide - All five stations in Table 4-14 showed a decrease in an-
   nual average CO concentrations for the two periods.   This percentage decrease ranges
   from 18 percent for Denver to 46 percent for Chicago.  The percent decrease for the
   average of the five stations is 31 percent.  Graphs  of the CO annual average concen-
   trations (to be presented later) show a consistent decrease in concentrations through-
   out the entire data period for most stations.  Cincinnati showed a modest increase
   in the average of the second highest values while Philadelphia showed the largest de-
   crease (27 percent).  Average concentrations^of CO appear to be decreasing at all the
   CAMP stations, although a similar chctnge in the second highest value was not observed
   at any station with the possible exceptions of Philadelphia and Chicago.  The earlier
4-22

-------
Table 4-15.  NITRIC OXIDE CONCENTRATIONS MEASURED AT CAMP STATIONS BY MODIFIED
                       SALTZMAN COLORIMETRIC METHOD
                                 (yg/m3)
Station
Chicago
Cincinnati
Denver
Philadelphia
St. Louis
CAMP average
Average concentration
1962-1966
122.6
43.8
44.9
55.2
39.8
61.2
1967-1971
125.4
53.6
54.4
65.4
47.6
69.3
	
Percent
change
+ 2
+22
+21
+18
+19
+13
Average of annual 2nd highest
value
1962-1966
731
782
633
1331
541
804
1967-1971
969
1067
620
1395
578
926
Percent
change
+32
+36
- 2
+ 5
+ 7
+15
  Table 4-16.
NITROGEN DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS MEASURED AT CAMP STATIONS BY
  MODIFIED SALTZMAN COLORIMETRIC METHOD
                  (ug/m3)
Station
Chicago
Cincinnati
Denver
Philadelphia
St. Louis
CAMP average
Average concentration
1962-1966
86.1
62.0
66.0
67.7
58.5
68.1
1967-1971 '
101.2
60.0
67.9
77.6
54.2
72.2
Percent
change
+18
-3
+3
+15
-7
+6
Average of annual 2nd highest
value
1962-1966
444
391
498
361
320
403
1967-1971
499
367
493
414
267
408
Percent
change
+12
-6
-1
+15
-16
+1
          Table 4-17.  OXIDES OF NITROGEN (NO + N02)  CONCENTRATIONS
                           MEASURED AT CAMP STATIONS
                                    (yg/m3)
Station
Chicago
Cincinnati
Denver
Philadelphia
St. Louis
CAMP average
Average concentration
1962-1966
208.7 1
105.8
110.9
122.9
98.3
129.3
1967-1971
226.6
113.6
122.3
143.0
101.8
141.5
Percent
change
+ 8
+ 7
+10
+16
+ 3
+ 9
                                                                               4-23

-------
         Table 4-18.   TOTAL  OXIDANT CONCENTRATIONS  MEASURED AT CAMP  STATIONS
                            BY  NEUTRAL  BUFFERED KI  METHOD

                                       (ug/m3)
Station
Chicago
Cincinnati
Denver
Philadelphia
St. Louis
CAMP average
Average of
99th percenti le
1962-1966
128.2
191.9
-
211.5
-
177.2
1967-1971
166.2
176.9
-
169.6
-
171
Percent
change
+30
- 8
-
-20
-
- 3
Average of
annual 2nd highest value
1962-1966
263
333
-
459
-
352
1967-1971
299
287
-
299
-
295
Percent
change
+14
-14
-
-35
-
-16
 change in CO instrumentation and operating procedures (1970) has probably exaggerated
 this pattern of decreasing concentration.  The overall effect is, therefore, difficult
 to quantify with precision.

 4.2.2.1.2  Nitric oxide - Nitric oxide concentration trends follow a pattern oppo-
 site from that of CO (Table 4-15).  The average (1967 through 1971) annual concentra-
 tion is higher for each station; however, the increase in Chicago is slight (2 per-
 cent).  The percent increase in the five-station average is 13 percent.  The increases
 are larger for the averages of the annual second highest values for Chicago, 32 per-
 cent, and Cincinnati, 36 percent.  The other stations showed only very slight changes
 between the two periods.

 4.2.2.1.3  Nitrogen dioxide - The Chicago CAMP station (Table 4-16) showed the largest
 increase (18 percent) in average concentrations.  Philadelphia showed increases of 15
 percent for both averages.  Cincinnati, Denver, and St. Louis showed only very slight
 changes.  The composite N02 average for the five stations showed only a 6 percent in-
 crease in the average annual concentration and essentially no change  (1 percent) in
 the second highest value average.  These results indicate that N02 concentrations did
 not parallel the increases noted for NO.  This could have been caused by restraints
 that limit the atmospheric conversion of NO to N0£.  Such restraints could be the
 amount of incident ultra-violet solar energy or the amount of reactive hydrocarbons
 present.

 4.2.2.1.4  Oxides of nitrogen - Most cities showed modest increases in the average
 NOX (NO and N02) concentrations (Table 4-17).  The composite average increase for the
 five stations was 9 percent.

 4.2.2.1.5  total oxidants - The total-oxicfant data are of limited value because they
 are incomplete  (Table 4-18).  Only Chicago, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia had suffi-
 cient data for analysis.  Instead of the average concentrations, the weighted
 averages (by the number of observations) of the annual 99th percentile concentrations
 were computed together with the averages of the second highest values.  The Chicago
 station showed the highest increase (30 percent) in the average of the 99th percen
 tiles, whereas Philadelphia had the largest decrease (20"percent).  Cincinnati
 showed only a modest decrease (8 percent) in the average 99th percentile.  The limi-
 tations in these data make it impossible to reach a meaningful conclusion concerning
 trends in urban oxidant measurements.

 4.2.2.2  Trend analysis by city - In addition to the analyses presented above, CAMP
 annual averages for NO, N02, NOX, and CO are presented by city in Figures 4-14 through
 4-17.   Circled annual averages were derived from data that do not satisfy the National
4-24

-------
                    o INDICATES INVALID AVERAGE (AVERAGE BASED ON INCOMPLETE DATA)
         20
         10
         10
         10
     •x.
     o
     o
         10
         10
                                                                  CINCINNATI CAMP
DENVER CAMP
   o
                                                                PHILADELPHIA CAMP
                                                                   ST. LOUIS CAMP
               1962   1963    1964    1965   1966   1967    1968    1969   1970   1971   1972

                                          YEAR

                Figure 4-14.  Trend lines for CO annual averages in five CAMP cities.


Aerometric Data Bank's minimum sampling criterion, which requires  at  least 75 percent
representation of all possible  1-hour samples in the year.   To aid in the  interpreta-
tion of these time plots, a simple linear regression analysis is provided  in which
the annual average is displayed as a function of time for  each station-pollutant com-
bination.  The calculated least-squares regression  lines are also  shown superimposed
over the time plots  of the annual averages.

     The NO, N02, and NOx graphs and regression lines indicate, for the most part, an
increase in annual average concentration with time.  The NO  results show this pattern
more consistently from city to  city than either NC>2 or NOx.   The regression lines
for Philadelphia  NO  concentrations were computed with and  without  the 1962 average in-
cluded because it appeared to be unusually lower than subsequent averages.  With 1962
omitted, the regression  line has essentially zero slope, indicating no discernible
change in annual  average concentration with time.   Both the  N02 and NOX data for Den-
ver and St. Louis also appear to have varied little over the time  span considered.
The CO annual averages for all  CAMP stations show substantial decreases with time.
The slopes of the regression lines (which can be interpreted as the average rates of
change in the annual average concentrations) range  from  -0.26 in Denver to -1.01 in
Chicago.  The regressions for CO appear to fit the  individual annual  averages well,
indicating that the  change in annual average CO concentrations with time is approxi-
                                                                                      4-25

-------
         200


         100
                    o INDICATES INVALID AVERAGE (AVERAGE BASED ON INCOMPLETE DATA)

                          * NOTE CHANGE IN ORDINATE SCALE FOR THESE DATA.
                                                                         CHICAGO-
                                                                          CAMP
          0
         100
          50
          0
         100
SJ
C9

I
                                  I     I      I     i    I
          SO
          0
         100

          50
                                                                         DENVER'
                                                                          CAMP
                         62 OMITTED
          0
         100


         50


          0
                T      I      I     I      I
                                                    o          o          -
                                                               PHILADELPHIA
                                                    ,      |         CAMP
                                                          L   I      I
                                                                   ST. LOUIS'
                                                                    CAMP
               1962   1963   1964   1965   1966   1967    1968    1969   1970   1971

                                           YEAR

                Figure 4-15.  Trend lines for NO annual averages in five CAMP cities.
 mately  linear.   Denver is the only station whose  averages for the period 1969 through
 1971 showed an increase from 6.5 mg/m3  (1969) to  8.3 mg/m3 (1971).  The individual
 regressions were all tested for statistical significance at the a =0.05 level.  Table
 4-19 shows  a listing of the significant regressions  together with the average percent
 rate of change per year.  The interpretation of trends  in the CO d..: ,. is mentioned
 before,  must be conducted with a great deal of caution  because of the change in in-
 strumentation and the limited information available  for recent years.   The change in
 instruments and procedures that occurred in the period  1969 through 1970 at all sta-
 tions is believed to cause lower measured CO concentrations since the interference
 of water vapor was presumably minimized.

      Because standards for CO are written in terms of 8-hour and 1-hour averages,
 it is more  informative to observe the change with time  of a parameter based on its
 averaging time rather than on annual averages.  The  effect of the instrumentation
 changes on  the extreme values or the upper percentiles  for these short-term averaging
 times is not as great on a percentage basis as  is true  for the annual averages.  The
 annual  99th percentiles for hourly CO measurements are  shown in Figure 4-18.  In
 most cases, this value has decreased over time.   Again, Denver is the exception.  De-
 creases in  the 99th percentile over the entire period ranged from about 17 percent
4-26

-------
        200


        100


         0
        100


         50
                    o INDICATES INVALID AVERAGE (AVERAGE BASED ON INCOMPLETE DATA)

                         * NOTE CHANGE IN ORDINATE SCALE FOR THESE DATA.
    a"   o
    S  100
         50
•t
&
         0
        100
         50
         0
        100
         50
                                                                    CHICAGO •
                                                                    CAMP
                                              I     I     I     I      1
                                                                      CINCINNATI
                                                                         CAMP
                                      T    i
                                 ri	-.	Q
                                                                         DENVER	
                                                                          CAMP
                                                                    PHILADELPHIA'
                                                                       CAMP
                                                                        ST. LOUIS
                                                                         CAMP
               1962   1963    1964  1965   196G   1967   1968   1969   1970   1971

                                             YEAR

              Figure 4-16.  Trend lines for N02 annual averages in five CAMP cities.

(in St. Louis)  to about  55 percent (in Philadelphia).  The  pattern in Denver was
fairly stable with the value for 1971 showing the  largest change of about 22 percent
above the 1970  value.

     The annual 99th percentiles for total oxidants are presented in Figure 4-19.
Only in the cases of Chicago and Philadelphia are  sufficient data available to permit
the detection of possible trends.  Chicago averaged 50 to 75 ug/m3 in 1962 and 1963.
This level increased to  approximately 200 jig/m3  in 1964 and showed little change there-
after.  The very low concentrations in the beginning may  reflect the reducing effect
of S02 on oxidants.  This effect was corrected in  1964 by the installation of an SO?
scrubber to the system.   The Philadelphia plot reaches a  maximum of almost 300 ;ig/m*
in 1966 and declines to  a minimum of 118jug/m3 in  1971.   The 1971 99th percentile  for
St. Louis is the lowest  of any annual value presented  for this station.  Although
Cincinnati lacks 3 years of data (1966, 1969, and  1970),  the data that are available
indicate a stable situation.

4.3  TREND ANALYSES OF  SELECTED AQCR'S

     The previous section discussed air quality  trends on a nationwide basis for TSP
and S02, while  it examined the automobile-related  pollutants in six cities at CAMP
                                                                                      4-27

-------
     UJ
     s
     cc
     UJ
     X
     O
        400



        200


          0
        200


        100
 0
200
100



 0
200


100
                   o INDICATES INVALID AVERAGE (AVERAGE BASED ON INCOMPLETE DATA)
                        * NOTE CHANGE IN ORDINATE SCALE FOR THESE DATA
                                                                CHICAGO.
                                                                  CAMP
          0
        200
        100
                                                                       CINCINNATI
                                                                         CAMP
                                                                         DENVER"
                                                                          CAMP
 PHILADELPHIA
0   CAMP
                                                                        ST. LOUIS -
                                                                         CAMP
               1962   1963   1964   1965    1966    1967   1968   1969   1970    1971

                                            YEAR

                Figure 4-17.  Trend lines for NOX annual averages in five CAMP cities.
 sites.  The; yearly annual means  and trend summaries for the NASN  stations employed in
 this analysis are indicated  in Appendix F for each AQCR.  Since this  NASN Trend infor-
 mation is frequently based on only one monitoring site in an AQCR,  it can be mislead-
 ing to assess the progress of an entire AQCR solely on this basis.  This  section illus-
 trates this point by examining three specific AQCR-pollutant combinations in more de-
 tail.  By supplementing  the  NASN data with data from State and local  agency monitoring
 efforts, it is possible  to obtain a more complete assessment of the various trends
 within an AQCR.   'ne three cases treated are (1) oxidants in Los  Angeles, (2) sus-
 pended particulates in New Jersey-New York-Connecticut, and  (3) sulfur dioxide in
 Chicago.  The Regions were selected because they had the most air monitoring sites
 for each of the three pollutants, and they were Priority I Regions  for the given
 pollutant, indicating that the concentration of that pollutant in the Region is of
 particular concern with  respect  to the air quality standards.

      The AQCR analyses utilize both statistical tests  (with the exception of Los
 Angeles) and graphical presentations.  All annual trends for individual sites were
 determined by statistical tests  based on contrasts of annual geometric means among
 various years.  In addition, graphs are presented for annual means  showing trends at
 selected sites, the behavior of  composite averages, and the history of the maximum
4-28

-------
Table 4-19.   CITY-POLLUTANT COMBINATIONS FROM  CAMP STATIONS  WHERE STATISTICALLY
             SIGNIFICANT (6 = 0.05  LEVEL) LINEAR CHANGES  IN ANNUAL AVERAGE
                 POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION WITH TIME WERE FOUND
City
Chicago
Chicago
Cincinnati
Cincinnati
Denver
Denver
Philadelphia
St. Louis
Pollutant
CO
N02
CO
NOX
NO
NOX
CO
CO
Pattern of
change
Decreasing
Increasing
Decreasing
Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
Decreasing
Decreasing
Rate of
change/yr
-1 .01 mg/m3
+3.82 ug/m3
-0.62 mg/m3
+2.95 yg/m3
+3.83 pg/m3
+4.01 pg/m3
-0.84 mg/m3
-0.36 mg/m3
Percent rate of
change/yr
-10
+4
-14
+3
-•7
+3
-15
-6
                   o INDICATES INVALID AVERAGE (AVERAGE BASED ON INCOMPLETE DATA)
      40
      20
                                                                         CHICAGO
                                                                          CAMP  .
tu
2(1

o
W~
20
n
40
'n

n

20
0










CINCI
4NATI
	 o- o^^ nAMP 	









• 	 -<




	



\

c

> 	 <
>- 	 [



^


1



DE
C

NVER
AMP 	








1




— o^_ ^^V PHILADELPHIA
	 ^~~— ^ r. -"^^ N. CAMP 	
X-, n -"






|









c

D 	 '

3— — (•









3 °" -(
1
ST.
W
5
.OUIS
IMP 	

  o
  C£.
  tf
             1962    1963   1964   1965   1966   1967   1968    1969   1970   1971
                                           YEAR
      Figure  4-18.   Trend lines for annual  99th percentiles of CO in five CAMP cities.
                                                                                    4-29

-------
                       o INDICATES INVALID AVERAGE (AVERAGE BASED ON INCOMPLETE DATA)
200
0
400
3
=! 200
3
o
tc
UJ
a. o
K 400
Si
_i
| 200
<
— 4UU
0
_i
fe 200
0
400
200
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1
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W
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IMP -

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^
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)

CIHCII
o ™
INATI
IP -





c
) C
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DE
C
NVER
AMP -


c
* 	 «
^
*-— <
^
k
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3
(
F
^
'HILADE
CAM
f
LPHIA
P —


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t
ST.
c;
[
.GUIS
IMP -

                1962   1963   1964   1965    1966  1967   1968   1969  1970   1971

                                          YEAR

        Figure 4-19.  Trend lines for annual 99th percentiles of total oxidants in five CAMP cities.

  yearly values for the annual means, either in the  entire AQCR or in the largest"city
  within the AQCR.  The graph of a selected site illustrates the variability associated
  with ambient air quality measurements, whereas the graph of the  composite average
  summarizes the general trend of all the  sites.  In forming the composite averagesj	
  interpolated values were used  for missing values to form a consistent data set for
  these sites throughout the period of  interest.  The maximum annual average values in
  an AQCR were plotted to compare these values  to the applicable annual air quality
  standards.
       In addition to this treatment of annual  values,  similar  graphical presentations
  are provided for various 99th  percentile values of 24-hour or hourly measurements.
  These quantities reflect the historical  pattern of the AQCR with respect to short-
  term air quality standards.  In the case of sulfur dioxide and total suspended partic-
  ulates, 99th percentile values for  24-hour measurements were used to examine the
  trends in the AQCR with respect to the 24-hour quality standards.  These results were
  then compared with the trends  determined for  the annual means.  For oxidants, the dis-
  cussion of trends is limited by available data and is based solely on changes in the
  99th percentile values of hourly measurements.  These values  are compared to the max-
  imum hourly oxidant standard and no statistical tests for trends are made.  The 99th
  percentile value was used, rather than the maximum or second  highest value, to allow
  for the different number of observations made at various sites.
4-30

-------
     In discussing air quality trends within individual AQCR's, it should be noted
that the placement of monitoring  sites within a Region is not necessarily intended
to reflect average values throughout the AQCR.   For example, one Region may concen-
trate its monitoring sites  in high-pollution areas, whereas another may choose a more
uniform distribution of sites.  For this reason, caution should be exercised in making
comparisons among Regions based on composite averages.   This report is concerned pri-
marily with trends, and these trends should be viewed as applicable to the site rather
than to the AQCR as a whole in most instances.

     The approach used in this analysis is  primarily descriptive.  In this report, the
emphasis has been placed on determining historical trends in air quality data rather
than seeking causal interpretations as to why these trends have occurred.  For each
AQCR, the trend in ambient  air quality levels is affected by factors such as emission
regulations and meteorological conditions,  which are not discussed in depth in this
treatment.

     In examining these AQCR's, it should be noted that only those sites having at
least 2 years of valid data during the period 1968 through 1971, one of which was
after 1969, are used in the analysis of trends in annual values.

     The trends in annual means for the New Jersey-New York-Connecticut and the Metro-
politan Chicago AQCR's are  down for the long term and mixed for the short term.  The
Los Angeles AQCR has shown  declines in 99th percentile values for total oxidant.

     Discussions of the results for the Los Angeles AQCR, the New Jersey-New York-
Connecticut AQCR, and the Chicago AQCR follow.

4.3.1 Metropolitan Los Angeles  Intrastate AQCR

4.3.1.1  Regional description - The Metropolitan Los Angeles Intrastate AOCR has an
area of 23,800 square kilometers  (9200 square miles) and a population of 9.8 million.
The areas included in this  Region are shown in Figure 4-20.  A series of mountain
ranges forms a semicurcular barrier around  the Los Angeles Basin area.  This Basin
includes a small coastal strip extending northwest into Santa Barbara County.  The
                    A INDICATES NUMBER OF SITES IN COUNTY.
                    • INDICATES NUMBER OF SITES WITHIN CITY OF LOS ANGELES.

                     TOTAL STATIONS: 16
                   Figure 4-20.  Metropolitan Los Angeles Intrastate AQCR.
                                                                                     4-31

-------
  mountain barrier and low-mixing depths associated with the semipermanent Pacific anti-
  cyclone constitute an effective barrier that limits horizontal and vertical ventila-
  tion of pollutants generated within the Basin.  Particularly in the summer, frequent
  clear skies with light westerly daytime winds, together with the existing mountain
  barrier and the large number of automobiles, contribute greatly to the serious photo-
  chemical smog problem in the Basin.


  4.3.1.2  Oxidant trends - The 99th percentile values for hourly total oxidant values
  in the Los Angeles AQCR have shown a short-term decline, but the region continues to
  exceed the maximum hourly oxidant standard.  This discussion compares the 99th per-
  centile values at various stations with the hourly standard.*  Twelve sites in the
  National Aerometric Data Bank having at least 2 years of data during the period 1968
  through 1971, one of which was after 1969, were used in this analysis.  The geograph-
  ical distribution of these sites is indicated in Figure 4-20.  Annual percentile val-
  ues for these sites are listed in Table 4-20 for the years 1963 through 1971.  Figure
         Table 4-20.  99th PERCENTILE VALUES FOR HOURLY OXIDANT CONCENTRATIONS

                      IN METROPOLITAN LOS ANGELES INTRASTATE AOCR

                                         (ug/m3)
City
Anaheim
Azusa
Burbank
La Habra
Lennox
Long Beach
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Pomona
San Bernardino
Santa Ana
1963
333
470
353


196
372
372


392

1964
294
588
392


216
412
314


470

1965
470
608
490

274
255
451
353


450

1966
412
588
412

235
235
412
333
450
529
431

1967
392
647
568

255
196
392
353
529
568
451

1968
333


294






412
196
1969
353






1970
294
627
431
274
196
137
313
255
412
529


529
216
1971
235
510
392
392
176
157
274
216
353
392
451
274
  4-21 displays the maximum 99th percentile values in the AQCR and also the composite
  averages of these 99th percentile values.  The absence of maximum values for the
  years 1968 and  1969 can be attributed to the fact that data are available from NADB
  for only four sites for 1968 and one site for 1969.  Values for sites that show
  consistently higher oxidant levels are not available for this period.  The graph of
  the composite average in Figure 4-21 illustrates both the recent decline in oxidant
  values  and the  degree by which the Region exceeds the hourly oxidant standard.  De-
  spite this decline in the composite average, there has been no significant change  in
  the percentage  of sites exceeding the oxidant standard for the period 1971 through
  1972.
   *99th percentile  values,  although not  those  used  in  the  definition  of  the  NAAOS's,
   approximate  the standard  definition  in that  they  comprise  the  87  largest values  out
   of a possible  8760  observations  for  a  year.
4-32

-------
                          700
                          600
                          500
                         ;400
                          300
                          200
                          100
                                         MAXIMUM AQCR VALUE
                                         NOTE: ONLY 4 SITES IN 1968\
                                               AND 1 SITE IN 1969
                            ""^-•"'
                            **     A
                                  AQCR COMPOSITE AVERAGE
                                        (12 SITES)
                             HOURLY OXIDANT STANDARD
                           1963
 1967
YEAR
1971
                        Figure 4-21.  99th percentile values of hourly
                        oxidant concentratior s for the Los Angeles
                        Intrastate AQCR.
4.3.2  New Jersey-New  York-Connecticut Interstate AQCR

4.3.2.1  Regional  description - The New Jersey-New York-Connecticut  Interstate AQCR
includes New York  City and surrounding areas in the three -state Region  as  shown in
Figure 4-22.  This Region has a population of 17.3 million and covers an area of
14,560 square kilometers  (5,634 square miles).  The terrain is generally level except
for some hilly  areas along the northwest boundary.  This terrain  and the combination
of sea breezes  reinforced by the heat-island effect of New York Citv contribute to a
high average wind  speed that provides favorable horizontal dispersion as compared to
most locations  in  the Eastern United States.

4.3.2.2  Particulate trends - Forty-two monitoring stations provided the data used in
this analysis.   Seven of  these stations were NASN sites and the balance were State
agency sites.   The New Jersey-New York -Connecticut AQCR showed an overall  long-term
downward trend  in  annual  TSP values for the past 12- and 8-year periods.   Over the
past 4 years, the  short-term pattern has been mixed, with the majority of these sites
showing no change.   These results are summarized in Table 4-21.

     Figure 4-23 displays the annual TSP geometric means for NASN sites at Newark,
New Jersey and  New York City^ _Both locations show long-term downward trends with no
clearcut recent  short-term trend.   The composite average for all  sites  considered shows
a slight downward  trend from 77 ^ig/rn^ to 72 >ig/m3 over the past 4 years.   As presented
in Table 4-22,  only  one site showed a long-term upward trend.  This  increase occurred
in Suffolk County  over the past 8 years and was attributed primarily to high values in
the past 4-year  period.   Although initially below the standard, TSP  values at this site
rose above the primary standard in 1970.

     Figure 4-24 displays 99th percentile TSP values relative to  the 24-hour standards.
Although both the  Newark  and New York City NASN sites showed an overall downward pat-
                                                                                     4-33

-------
                                                           BRONX
                                                           NEW YORK
                                                           HUDSON
                                                           KINGS
                                                           RICHMOND
                                                 TOTAL PARTICIPATE MONITORS: 42

                   Figure 4-22.  New Jersey-New York-Connecticut Interstate AQCR.

  tern,  it  is  also clear that the 99th percentile values of the second highest station
  in the AQCR are increasing and are well above the 24-hour primary standard.  Because
  of the large number of sites in this AQCR, and extremely high values at a site for a
  particular year, the second highest value was plotted rather than the maximum. Tables
  4-23 and  4-24 summarize the status of these stations over the past 4 years with re-
  spect  to  the standards.   As would be expected from the mixed trends in the past 4
  years, there has been no consistent improvement.

  4.3.3  Metropolitan Chicago Interstate AQCR

  4.3.3.1  Regional description - The Metropolitan Chicago AQCR includes the City of
  Chicago and  surrounding portions of Illinois and Indiana, as shown in Figure 4-25.
  This Region  has a population of 7.1 million and an area of 13,330 square kilometers
  (5,149 square miles).  The generally flat terrain of the Region allows free air
  movement.  Lake breezes and a favored storm-track position provide the strong vari-
  able winds characteristic of the area.  These favorable topographical and meteorolog-
  ical features minimize the occurrence of stagnant air masses.

  4.3.3.2  Sulfur dioxide trends- - The Chicago AQCR has shown a marked downward trend
  in sulfur dioxide levels during the last 8-year period.  All sites in the Region with
  sufficient data showed long-term downward trends.  There were 22 sites used for this
  analysis.  The trends at each site are shown in Table 4-25.  Twenty of these sites
  are located  in the  City of Chicago; the other two are NASN stations located in East
  Chicago,  Indiana and Hammond, Indiana.

      The  East Chicago site showed a downward trend over the past 8 years.  Both Indi-
  ana NASN  sites showed downward short-term trends.  As presented in Table 4-26, the
  Chicago sites showed a mixed short-term pattern.  This was attributed primarily to
  relative  increases  in 1970 annual geometric means.  The annual arithmetic means for
  all the 18 stations reporting for 1972 remained below the annual secondary standard.
4-34

-------
            Table  4-21.   NUMBER OF STATIONS SHOWING TRENDS  IN  ANNUAL MEAN

             TSP CONCENTRATIONS IN NEW JERSEY-NEW YORK-CONNECTICUT AQCR

Trend
UP
Down
No change
Total
Number of stations
1960-1971

5
2
7
1960-1967


6
6
1964-1971
1
11
10
22
1968-1971
4
9
29
42
                          200
                          180
                          160
                          140
                        *120
                          100
                                               I   I   I   I   I
                                             NEW YORK CITY SITE
                              AQCR COMPOSITE
                                AVERAGE (42 SITES)
   \NEWARKNASNSITE-
   \
                              ANNUAL PRIMARY STANDARD
 3>  ^-..

 "*^"-	-...i>   / 	
 rr Tun A air? ~  ir^    N
                           40
                            I960
                              ANNUAL SECONDARY STANDARD

                                I   I   I   I   I   I   I   I   I
19(5
 YEAR
                                                             1971
                         Figure 4-23.  TSP annual geometric means
                         for selected stations in the New Jersey-New
                         York-Connecticut Interstate AQCR.
Fourteen of these  18  stations reported lower levels for  1972  than for 1971, and 12
reported their all-time lowest annual levels.  Of the nine  sites showing upward short-
term trends in the period 1968 through 1971.  Eight have reported data for 1972, and
seven of these reported all-time lows.  This indicates tnat,  despite the mixed short-
term pattern  in  the period 1968 through 1971, the long-term downward trend is still
continuing.

     Although these trend determinations were based on annual geometric means, Figure
4-26 shows that  the annual arithmetic means also support the  downward pattern.  Both
the Chicago City composite and the Chicago NASN site showed downward trends and, by
1971, the maximum  AQCR annual mean was below the annual  primary standard.  This down-
ward trend is also apparent in Figure 4-27 for the 99th  percentile values.  Again, the
Chicago City  composite and the Chicago NASN site showed  downward trends and, by 1971,
                                                                                     4-35

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4-36

-------
           500
           400
          ^300
         a.
           200 —
           100
                               2ND HIGH AQCR VALUE/
              24-HOUR
              PRIMARY
              STANDARD
                        NEWARK NASN SITE    V
               24-HOUR SECONDARY STANDARD
                             I   I    I
             1960
1965
 YEAR
                                               1971
           Figure 4-24.  Annual TSP 99th percent!le for
           selected NASN stations in the New Jersey-
           New York-Connecticut Interstate AQCR.
Table 4-23.   PERCENT OF  STATIONS EXCEEDING  ANNUAL TSP

  STANDARDS  IN NEW JERSEY-NEW YORK-CONNECTICUT AQCR
Year
1968
1969
1970
1971
Exceeding
primary standard
44
37
52
36
Exceeding
secondary standard
61
67
72
69
Table 4-24.   PERCENT OF  STATIONS WITH  99th PERCENTILE

        VALUES EXCEEDING  24-hour TSP STANDARDS

      IN  NEW JERSEY-NEW  YORK-CONNECTICUT  AQCR
Year
1968
1969
1970
1971
Exceeding
primary standard
17
18
20
14
Exceeding
secondary standard
67
67
88
67
                                                                      ,  4-37

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                   McHENRY
                      OA
                    KANE
                     OA
                   KENDALL
                     OA
                   GRUNDY
                     OA
LAKE
 OA
                                   COOK
                                     20A
                               DU PAGE
                                  OA
                                              CHICAGO1
                                              v,  20
                                   WILL
                                    OA
                                      KANKAKEE
                                         OA
                                                          LAKE
                                                           2A
                               PORTER
                                  OA
                            A INDICATES NUMBER OF SULFUR DIOXIDE SITES WITHIN THE COUNTY.

                            • INDICATES NUMBER OF SULFUR DIOXIDE SITES WITHIN CITY OF CHICAGO.

                              TOTAL S02 STATIONS: 22


                      Figure 4-25.   Metropolitan Chicago AQCR.
   the maximum AQCR value met the 24-hour primary standard for sulfur dioxide.  Tables
   4-27  and 4-28 further demonstrate the improvement of this Region with respect to the
   24-hour and annual sulfur dioxide standards.   Not only were these  primary standards
   achieved by all sites in 1971, but there was  also definite and  consistent improve-
   ment  with respect to the secondary standards.
4-38

-------
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-------
                    Table  4-26.   NUMBER OF  STATIONS SHOWING TRENDS IN  S02

                           ANNUAL  MEANS IN METROPOLITAN  CHICAGO AQCR

Trend
Up
Down
No change
Indeterminant
Total
Time period
1964-1971
0
19
0
0
19
1968-1971
9
11
1
1
22
       300
       250
o
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atf IV
O
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ZOS
0
to
                      1
                              I      I
                     CHICAGO CITY MAXIMUM
                     CHICAGO NASN SITE
                     CHICAGO CITY COMPOSITE
                      (20 SITES)
      ANNUAL PRIMARY  \
         STANDARD-v   \
       ANNUAL '
      SECONDARY STANDARD
                       1968

                      YEAR
                                              1971
                                                     1000
                                                      800 —
                                                    i=600 —
                                                    o
                                                    ac
                                                    UJ
                                                    o.
                                                    0400 —
                                                      200
                                                            A      I      I       I
                                                       24-HOUR
                                                       PRIMARY -x
                                                       STANDARD  >
                                                             24-HOUR
                                                           SECONDARY-.
                                                            STANDARD >
                                                            	CHICAGO AQCR 2ND HIGHEST VALUE
                                                            	CHICAGO NASN SITE
                                                            	CHICAGO CITY COMPOSITE
                                                                    AVERAGE
                                                       1965
                                                                      1968

                                                                      YEAR
1971
                                                      Figure 4-27.  99th percent!le values for SO2
                                                      in the metropolitan Chicago AQCR.
     Figure 4-26.  Annual arithmetic means for
     S02 m the metropolitan Chicago AQCR.
4-40

-------
  Table 4-27.  PERCENT OF STATIONS EXCEEDING ANNUAL
SULFUR DIOXIDE STANDARDS IN METROPOLITAN CHICAGO AOCR
Year
1968
1969
1970
1971
Exceeding
primary standard
40
33
37
0
Exceeding
secondary standard
65
67
50
20
Table 4-28.  PERCENT OF STATIONS WITH 99th PERCENTILE
  VALUES EXCEEDING 24-hour SULFUR DIOXIDE STANDARDS
             IN METROPOLITAN CHICAGO AQCR
Year
1968
1969
1970
1971
Exceeding
primary standard
60
57
41
0
Exceeding
secondary standard
85
76
55
29
                                                               4-41

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-------
          APPENDIX A.
NATIONAL  PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
 AMBIENT  AIR QUALITY  STANDARDS
              A-l

-------
                                        NOTE


     The National Ambient Air Quality Standards have been published in their entirety
in the Federal Register (Vol. 36, No. 34, April 30, 1971).  The cover sheet for that'
issue is included opposite this page.  Should additional copies of that issue of the
Federal Register be required, they may be obtained from the Superintendent of Docu-
ments, Washington, B.C.  20402.
 A-2

-------
        FEDERAL

        REGISTER
        VOLUME 36 •  NUMBER 84
        Friday, April 30, 1971  •  Washington, D.C.
                    PART II
          ENVIRONMENTAL

         PROTECTION AGENCY
          National Primary and Secondary

          Ambient Air Quality Standards
No. 84—Pt. II	1
                          A-3

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                APPENDIX B.
   REQUIREMENTS FOR PREPARATION,  ADOPTION,
AND SUBMITTAL OF  STATE  IMPLEMENTATION PLANS
                    B-l

-------
                                          NOTE


       The Requirements for Preparation, Adoption,  and Submittal of Implementation
  Plans have been published in their entirety in the Federal Register (Vol.  36, No.  84,
  August 14, 1971).  The cover sheet for that issue is included opposite this page.
  Should additional copies of that issue of the Federal Register be required, they
  may be obtained from the Superintendent of Documents, Washington, B.C.  20402.
B-2

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o
      
-------

-------
ERRATA SHEET:  CORRECTIONS TO TABLE 3.9 FOR SULFUR DIOXIDE
                (.ONLY CHANGES ARE LISTED)
In
AQCR
+
012
015
024


030
036


043


045


047


049
067
070


072
077
078
079


094
113
For The The Number of Stations Exceeding
Year the 24-Hour Standards Should Read:
4-
'69
'71
'69
'70
'71
'71
'69
•70
'71
'69
'70
'71
'69
'70
'71
'69
'70
'71
'71
'69
'69
'70
'71
'71
'69
'71
'69
'70
'71
'71
'71
Sec.


0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
6
6
5
3
2
0
0
1
0

0


0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
Pri.
0
2

0
0
0
0
0
0

4
3
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

-------
                 ERRATA SHEET (CONTINUED)  TABLE 3.9,  S02
       In        For The     The Number of Stations Exceeding
      AQCR         Year      the 24-Hour Standards Should Read:
      115          '71
      120          '69
                   '71
      124          '71
      150          '71
      151          '70
      158          '70
      160          '71
      161          '71
      162          '71
      174          '69
                   •70
                   '71
      193          '69
      228          '71
      229          '69
                   '70

          In turn, these changes affect the totals for two lines
      in the sulfur dioxide section of Table 3-8, as follows:
              Number of Stations -           1969     1970     1971
Sec.
0
0
0
3
0
0
0

1
4
0
0
0
0
1
0

Pri.
0

0
1

0
0
0
0
2
0

0
0
0
0
0
              Exceeding 24Hr. Sec. Std.       46       32       27
              Exceeding 24-Hr. Pri. Std.      25       17       11
          Similarly, the portion of Table 3,7 summarizing the number
      of AQCRs meeting or, exceeding 24-hour standards for Sulfur
      Dioxide is revised as follows:
               Number Meeting           Number Exceeding
            Annual + 24-Hr. Stds.       24-Hr. Standards
Priority I
Priority II
Priority III
Sec. Only
'69
19
15
27
'70
22
12
22
'71
19
13
21
'69
2
2
0
'70
3
1
0
'71
3
3
0
Sec. + Pri.
'69
5
1
0
'70
6
0
0
'71
7
0
0

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                                   APPENDIX  C.

                AEROMETRIC  AND  EMISSIONS  DATA SYSTEMS


    Two categories of information are essential to  the AQCR implementation planning
process:   (a) air quality data and (b) emissions data.  This information, in com-
puterized  form, is stored in repositories called data banks.   The overall set of
programs,  codes, and formats associated with storage, retrieval, and processing of
the data in the banks is called a system.

C.1  STORAGE AND  RETRIEVAL OF AEROMETRIC DATA

    The National Aerometric Data Bank is the repository for the SAROAD system and
currently  contains approximately 27 million data values.   These values represent
measurements obtained during CAMP, NASN, and State  and local agency  monitoring
activities since 1958.

    However, since participation in NADB has been voluntary in the past, there exist
large segments of data gathered by non-Federal agencies that have never been sub-
mitted.  The current regulations promulgated by EPA requiring quarterly submittal
of air quality data will augment the amount of data that  will be available in NADB
in the future.  It is expected that approximately 3 million data values will be
submitted  quarterly beginning with the first quarter  of 1973,  There are two data
files associated with NADB.  The first contains descriptive  information about the
sampling site environment.  The information in this file  covers approximately 9000
operating  and discontinued sites.   The second file  contains  the actual raw data.
The SAROAD parameter coding structure is organized  so that approximately 72,000
different pollutant codes can be identified.   In addition,  there are codes assigned
for the method of collection and analysis used with each  pollutant.  The sampling
intervals  range from 1-hour averages of continuous  monitoring to monthly and quarter-
ly composites.

    The SARQAD codes and forms used with NADB are described in three EPA publications,
APTD-0663, APTD-0907, and APTD-0633.

    As mentioned,  data have been submitted for about  9000 defined sites.  In addi-
tion, "old" data collected by State,  local,  and Federal agencies have been incorpo-
rated into the National Aerometric Data Bank.   Thus,  there  are considerably more
sites defined as a result of previous (and,  perhaps, not  currently operating)
monitoring activities.

C.2   NATIONAL EMISSIONS DATA SYSTEM

    The National Emissions Data Bank is the  repository for NEDS.  The bank contains
information from approximately 65,000 point  sources that  emit  more than 100 tons per
year of any of the five primary-criteria air pollutants (SC>2,  particulate matter,
NOX;  HC, and CO) as well as information relating to 3,300 area sources in the 50
States and Territories.   For each  point and  area source,  NEDB  stores approximately
80 items of data.

    NEDS was initiated in late 1971.   Emissions  data are  calculated  from appropriate
parameters for individual sources  and from the application of  emission factors
derived from representative source tests.  For this reason, approximately 900
source categories  have been defined and coupled with emissions factors for each
                                        C-1

-------
of the pollutants considered.  The characteristics of control equipment at the
source site must also be incorporated into the emissions calculations since estimated
emissions are dependent upon control efficiency.

    The NEDS codes and coding forms used in the NEDB are described in an EPA publica-
tion, APTD-1135 (Revised).
C-2

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                                   APPENDIX D.
                   MAJOR  DETERMINANTS  OF  AIR  QUALITY
D.1  INTRODUCTION
     Air quality levels often vary in both space  and  time.  Knowledge of these varia-
tions, their significance, and their causes is  essential to properly interpret air
quality data.  The principal reasons for air quality  variations can be grouped into
three broad categories:  (a) land use and emissions patterns,  (b) weather and topog-
raphy, and (c) atmospheric reactions and removal  processes.  The degree to which
these variations are detected and quantified depends,  in large part, on the adequacy
of coverage and the representativeness of monitoring  sites within an AQCR.  (Repre-
sentativeness is the effect of sampler placement  on the usability of the measure-
ments.)  In terms of coverage and representativeness,  available pollutant measure-
ments for many AQCR's are inadequate for comprehensive air quality and trend analyses;
however, progress is being made toward enhancing  the  quantity, quality, and uniformity
of data as monitoring operations are upgraded to  meet the requirements of the AQCR
implementation planning process.
D.2  LAND USE AND EMISSIONS  PATTERNS

     The basic determinant of air quality is the pattern of emissions  resulting  from
various activities associated with the use of particular land areas.   The various
types of land use are usually classified according to the following principal cate-
gories:  residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, and open space.  Den-
sities and relative distributions of the above uses determine whether  a  given land
area should be broadly identified as predominantly urban, suburban, or rural.  It is
quite clear how the nature of land use can determine emission patterns.  For example,
significant emissions of particulate matter and sulfur oxides are  likely to occur in
industrial areas while carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon emissions tend  to be greatest
in center-city,  high-traffic density areas.

     Many time-variant characteristics of emissions can be related to  land use.
Urban growth patterns, changing technology, and the growing tendency toward more
stringent emission controls all have an effect on relatively long-term air quality
trends.  On a short-term basis, the influence of cyclic factors tends  to predominate.
Seasonal and diurnal fluctuations in emissions, such as those of sulfur  oxides
resulting from the combustion of sulfur-containing fuels during the space heating
season, as well as weekly and daily working activity cycles,  contribute  significantly
to the observed short-term air quality variations.

     It is virtually impossible to characterize, on the basis of data  obtained at a
single sampling site, the air quality of an area with diverse land uses  and changing
emission patterns.  For example, early NASN stations were frequently sited in center-
city locations.   At that time, it was believed that these locations were those which
best represented the areas with the most significant air pollution problems.  Since
then, the central portions of most cities have not grown as rapidly as suburban  and
peripheral, industralized sections and their former characters have changed.  There-
fore, data from NASN stations do not always represent the generally higher levels of
air pollutant concentrations that occur in such areas or in the AQCR's in which  the
stations are located.
                                         D-l

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   D.3  WEATHER AND TOPOGRAPHY

        Transport and dispersion of air pollutants are determined by meteorological
   factors such as wind direction, wind speed, and atmospheric turbulence.   Some pollu-
   tants undergo reactive transformations to form secondary pollutant compounds when
   acted upon by sunshine, temperature, humidity, and other weather factors.  The trans-
   port, dispersive, and reactive factors are, in turn, modified by the extent and con-
   figuration of terrain irregularities such as hills, valleys, shorelines, and manmade
   features.  Existing meteorological conditions and local topography play important
   roles in determining the pattern of air quality in a given area.

        Over a period such as a season or year, a variety of weather conditions occur
   that tend to form patterns that are characteristic of an area and that reflect its
   geography, terrain, and man-made features.  Different years and the same seasons of
   different years are usually characterized by similar weather patterns.  Accordingly,
   a knowledge of emissions and climatological patterns for an area provides a useful
   indication of local air quality.

        Mathematical dispersion models, combining emissions and climatological informa-
   tion, have been developed to estimate air quality patterns.  These estimates have
   usually been in reasonably close agreement with measured values.  Such models have
   proven useful in extending knowledge of air quality distribution in an area.

        Although climatology varies with immediate locale, there are certain similari-
   ties and differences that characterize the meteorological patterns of different
   regions of the United States.  Important climatological parameters that affect the
   air pollution potential across the country are:  (a) frequency of low-level inver-
   sion (stable air), (b) morning and afternoon depths of vertical mixing,  and (c) fre-
   quency of light winds.  The annual average isopleths of these parameters for the
   contiguous United States are shown in Figures D-l, D-2, D-3, and D-4.  These iso-
   pleths indirectly reflect the influence of major topographic features such as the
   principal mountain chains, lakes, and oceans.  The distribution of an additional
   parameter important to the formation of photochemical oxidants is sunshine, which is
   depicted by the isopleth map of mean daily solar radiation shown in Figure D-5.

        Seasonal and daily weather factors affecting dispersion and reactivity of
   pollutants contribute significantly to the variations in air quality at particular
   monitoring sites.  In certain situations, short-term cyclic emissions and meteorolog-
   ical patterns combine to cause peak concentration levels.  The classic case is that
   of the morning peak (between 7:00 a.m. and 10:00 a.m.) in concentrations of primary
   pollutants due to heavy traffic and electric power requirements.  This peak coin-
   cides with the time of day when urban mixing heights and wind speeds, which deter-
   mine the ventilation rate, are usually near the minima of their diurnal cycle.

    D.4  ATMOSPHERIC REACTIONS AND REMOVAL  PROCESSES

        The pollutants for which NAAQS have been established are classified as reactive
   or nonreactive by the degree of their chemical stability.  Particulate matter  and
   carbon monoxide undergo relatively slow chemical changes while sulfur oxides,
   nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons, and photochemical oxidants  (particularly during
   certain weather conditions) undergo more rapid transformations.  In the case of
   reactive transformations, the pollutants emitted from sources are termed primary
   pollutants and those formed in the atmosphere from reactive activity are termed
   secondary.

        Nitrogen oxide and hydrocarbon  fnonmethane) emissions, emanating principally
   from automobiles, react in the presence of sunlight to form photochemical smog.  The
   photochemical reaction rates are relatively rapid with significant transformations
   occurring within minutes to a few hours.  In large urban areas with photochemical
   smog problems, early morning nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbon concentrations often
D-2

-------
   25
Figure D-1.  Mean annual inversion frequency (percent of total hours with inversions based 150 meters
or less above ground).
           5   3
               Figure D-2.  Isopleths (m x 102) of mean annual morning mixing heights.
                                                                                                D-3

-------
                 Figure D-3.  Isopleths (m x 102) of mean annual afternoon mixing heights.
     50
      60
        Figure D-4.  Mean annual frequency (% of nighttime hours) of nocturnal hourly surface wind
        observations <7 miles per hour (3.1 m/sec).
D-4

-------
f
§
               500
                   Figure D-5.  Mean daily solar radiation (langleys) annual.
                                                                 o HYDROCARBONS
                                                                 O ALDEHYDES
                                                                 A OZONE
                                                                   N02
                                                                   NO
                            KM.
                                              TIME OF DAY
      Figure D-6. Average concentrations during days of-eye irritation-in downtown Los Angeles
      (hydrocarbons, aldehydes, and ozone for 1953-1954^ nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide for 1958).
                                                                                                 D-5

-------
  show  a positive  correlation with  midday oxidant peak concentrations.   .An example of
  this  correlation is  shown  for Los Angeles in Figure  U-6.

       The principal mechanisms by which  contaminants  are removed  from  the  atmosphere
  are:   (a)  deposition and  (b) conversion to normal atmospheric constituents.  Chemical
  reactions can facilitate both processes.  Without these removal  mechanisms, pollu-
  tants would accumulate  in  the atmosphere and reach intolerable concentrations.
  Deposition occurs through  gravitational settling of  particles, diffusion  to the  sur-
  face, impaction, and through the cleansing effects of rainfall.  Rainfall removal
  includes the physical mechanisms of  absorption,  coagulation, and washout  by
  interception.

       Some contaminants  which are  removed from  the atmosphere can also be  reentrained.
  Man-made and natural dusts can  become airborne due to lack  of soil moisture and  to
  wind  action.  In the Southwest, many measurements indicate  that  suspended particu-
  late  concentrations  are high with  respect to known particulate source emissions  in
  their vicinity.   The aridness of  these  site areas contributes to dusty conditions.
  Dusts are generated  from disturbed dry  soil even during light winds;  strong winds
  augment  this effect.

  D.5   REPRESENTATIVENESS  OF AIR QUALITY MEASUREMENTS

       Most available  air quality data are derived from measurements performed at
  urban sites.  Data collected at a  specific urban site do not necessarily  accurately
  reflect  urban air quality  in the  general vicinity of the site unless  interfering
  local influences are eliminated or minimized.   Frequently,  such  influences are
  transient (e.g., effects of local  construction).

       Sensor elevation can  significantly affect air quality  measurements.  To date,
  standardized criteria for  sampling heights have not  been available.   Measurements
  are now  often made at roof level where  pollutant concentrations  may be higher or
  lower than actual representative  levels according to the relative height  of nearby
  emission sources.

       The pollutant being sampled  is  important  to the representativeness of a site.
  Because  of such  factors as source  distribution, source height, reactivity, and
  removal  processes, a site  that  is  suitable for one pollutant may not  provide repre-
  sentative data for another.  For  example, a monitoring site intended  for sampling a
  primary  automotive-related pollutant (CO, HC,  NO, N02) should be located near a  busy
  roadway  or intersection in order  to  sense maximum concentrations.  On the other  hand,
  sampling for a related secondary  pollutant  (Ox, N02) should be performed some dist-
  ance  downwind depending on dispersive and reactive rates.   For these  reasons,
  measurements of  several pollutants at a single station are  not likely to provide
  suitably representative samples for  all pollutants.   Multiple pollutant monitoring
  at a  single site, however, does provide useful data  for studies  of synergistic
  effects.

       The degree  to which  an air quality network provides a  reliable measure of  the
  distribution of pollutant  concentration over  an area depends mainly on sampler
  spacing  and local topography.   EPA is preparing general guidelines for developing
  air quality surveillance networks that  outline the  factors  to consider in sampler
  placement.  These and more comprehensive sampler placement  guidelines being developed
  by EPA should greatly enhance  the representativeness of future air quality measure-
  ments .
D-6

-------
                                  APPENDIX E.
            INVENTORY OF  AIR  QUALITY MONITORING  STATIONS
     Three  sets of tables are presented in Appendix E.  Tables E-l  through E-6 are
State listings, by pollutant/method, of current,  required, and proposed monitoring
stations.   These tables also identify the number  of stations contained in the Nation-
al Aerometric Data Bank that have valid or invalid annual data.  Table E-7 summarizes
current, required, and proposed stations for each pollutant/method  by State, and
Tables E-8  through E-16 present, by State, the number of existing Federal, State, and
local stations having valid and invalid annual data.
                                         E-l

-------
              Table E-l.   STATE INVENTORY OF STATIONS MONITORING SUSPENDED
                            PARTICIPATES  WITH TAPE  SAMPLER, 1971
State
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
D.C.
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
American Samoa
Guam
Virgin Islands
Stations listed in SIP
Current
1971
5
0
7
0
0
4
39
14
7.
*b
5
1
0
22
24
Minimum required
for 1974
16
2
8
2
22
7
10
1
2
14
17
1
3
19
15
1 ' 10
1
17
*
1
16
12
1
22
0
15
1
3
2
0
22
2
47
*
0
12
3
5
15
0
0
3
0
4
3
5
1
11
18
22
3
0
0
0
1
8
11
2
3
14
16
12
12
6
14
3
3
3
2
5
3
25
17
2
32
7
9
35
1
4
8
1
16
20
3
1
20
14
5
10
2
0
0
1
Proposed
for 1974
16
2
11
5
53
14
39
20
10
13
23
3
4
34
43
12
10
32
3
4
25
Stations listed in NADB
Total
1
0
0
0
37
0
3
0
9
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
Valid
0
0
0
0
15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0 0
0
21 0
0
0
29 00
23 00
6 00
20 80
3 | 0
0
4 0 ] 0
4 ! 0
6 I 0
22 ! 9
9 i 2
57 23
45 0
2 0
41 12
10 | 1
9 j 0
60
7
11
10
1
16
25
5
2
23
19
24
12
2
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
o
9
1
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Invalid3
1
0
0
0
22
0
3
0
9
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
0
0
0
0
0
1
17
0
0
12
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
          Invalid because of insufficient data for statistical  calculations.
          * = No data specified in SIP
E-2

-------
        Table E-2.   STATE INVENTORY  OF STATIONS  MONITORING  TOTAL
            SUSPENDED PARTICULATES  WITH HI-VOL SAMPLER, 1971
State
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
D.C
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Stations listed in SIP
Current
1971
60
6
33
16
70
55
60
14
7.
*b
40
Minimum required
for 1974
37
11
16
9
66
27
19
3
4
30
43
7 3
27 15
114 56
94 45
31
34
Kentucky 78
33
34
30
Louisiana * i 5
Maine 6 13
Maryland 62
Massachusetts 46
Michigan 80
Minnesota 68
Mississippi 17
Missouri 68
Montana 7
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
American Samoa
Guam
Virgin Islands
29
34
25
50
42
230
*
15
202
79
64
81
4
18
55
2
92
140
8
7
73
71
34
71
6
0
0
6
31
34
29
Proposed
for 1974
38
28
35
Stations listed in NADB
Total
16
2
29
29 4
102 ! 19
66 73
67 20
20
10
30
56
12
35
125
124
43
59
165
9
22
74
63
127
27 : 68
11 29
30 75
3
8
24
3
4
2
39
58
18
38
5
3
2
16
50
82
4
2
31
13 14 2
12 ' 29 ! 26
13 i 34
8 32
19 i 50
16 52
66 336
54
6
78
24
20
68
3
7
40
6
39
55
11
4
55
31
24
24
7
1
1
3
165
15
255
98
27
116
22
25
68
6
96
221
19
10
108
72
37
74
10
1
2
6
3
3
10
37
206
104
2
77
111
4
22
5
23
3
2
20
63
2
2
112
48
3
118
4
0
0
0
Valid
9
1
3
2
13
59
4
1
2
13
3
2
2
25
24
6
28
5
3
2
0
10
47
2
0
3
1
13
0
3
4
9
157
85
1
47
30
0
12
2
19
2
2
6
7
1
1
26
9
2
28
3
0
0
0
Invalid3
7
1
26
2
6
14
16
2
6
11
0
2
0
14
34
12
10
0
0
0
16
40
35
2
2
28
1
13
3
0
6
28
49
19
1
30
81
4
10
3
4
1
0
14
56
1
1
86
39
1
90
1
0
0
0
alnvalid because of insufficient data for  statistical calculations.
 * = No data specified m SIP
                                                                                   E-3

-------
              Table  E-3.   STATE  INVENTORY OF  STATIONS MONITORING S02  WITH
                             CONTINUOUS SAMPLING METHOD,  1971
State
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
D.C
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Stations listed in SIP
Current
1971
0
0
7
0
20
2
19
14
3

4
1
4
26
18
1
0
12
*
2
17
Massachusetts 8
Michigan 16
Minnesota ; 7
Mississippi 0
Missouri ' 7
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
American Samoa
Guam
Virgin Islands
2
0
0
0
21
3
45
*
0
13
0
1
17
0
0
2
0
2
*
5
2
2
22
0
4
0
0
0
0
Minimum required
for 1974
3
1
5
0
2
0
5
1
1
5
10
0
1
16
10
1
0
3
5
3
8
9
8
6
2
4
3
1
2
2
7
1
19
1
0
15
0
1
14
1
2
3
0
4
12
2
1
5
3
2
1
0
0
1
1
Proposed
for 1974
4
1
12
0
23
7
24
20
6
6
11
1
3
32
32
3
2
23
6
3
26
22
27
12
4
11
4
1
2
4
22
5
79
0
0
46
3
1
59
19
4
6
0
6
61
6
6
9
21
2
9
0
0
1
1
Stations listed in NADB
Total
0
0
Valid
0
0
0 0
0 0
14 12
1 0
1 0
0 0
2
3
0
0
0
3
0
0

0
0
0
8
2
0
0
0
14
0
1
0
0
10
0
8
0
0
8
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
5
0
3
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
lnvahda
0
0
0
0
2
1
1
0
1
3
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
2
0
0
0
13
0
1
0
0
0
0
8
0
0
8
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4
0
3
0
0
0
0
       alnvalid because of insufficient data for statistical calculations.
       b* = No data specified in SIP
E-4

-------
      Table  E-4.  STATE INVENTORY  OF STATIONS  MONITORING  S02 WITH
              WEST-GAEKE COLORIMETRIC 24-hour METHOD, 1971
State
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
D.C.
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
American Samoa
Guam
Virgin Islands
Stations listed in SIP
Current
1971
1
1
4
1
20
1
5
10
0
*b
11
5
0
29
43
4
8
60
*
5
24
46
6
15
1
6
2
1
6
4
0
6
6
*
1
35
8
5
0
1
18
20
0
5
51
4
1
23
0
13
22
1
0
0
2
Minimum required
for 1974
14
6
13
4
15
8
12
2
3
16
26
1
6
37
28
12
6
14
10
10
21
21
18
16
Proposed
for 1974
15
6
5
6
17
7
Stations listed in NADB
Total
3
1
4
2
16
2
11 4
16 3
0
16
29
8
8
50
89
13
36
150
13
22
38
66
36
20
2
24
3
4
0
27
16
2
11
4
4
1
9
6
Valid
2
0
1
0
3
0
2
2
0
7
3
0
0
19
8
1
5
1
3
1
1
2
9 3
3 1
7 15 2 0
11 6143
11 11
6 6
6 6
7 13
13 5
1
3
1
8
0
1
Invalid3
1
1
3
2
13
2
2
1
2
17
0
4
0
8
8
1
6
3
1
0
O
4
6
2
2
1
1
2
i ; o
2
0 0
8 22 3
39 11 34
0
20
c
0
3
14
10 131 73 2 71
2 2
40 94
7
6
28
3
5
17
i)
14
37
9
4
17
11
10
8
3
1
3
3
1 5
0
21
14
7 ! 1
0
3
21
39
4
45
171
15
3
47
4
21
30
3
1
3
3
16
h
16
1
1
5
28
1
0
18
4
1
3
2
0
0
0
0 0
15
2
0
6
1
1
1
0
1
2
0
0
5
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
6
12
1
10
3
15
0
1
4
26
1
0
13
3
0
2
2
0
0
0
Invalid because of  insufficient data for  statistical calculations.
* = No data specified in SIP
                                                                                 E-5

-------
                  Table E-5.   STATE INVENTORY OF STATIONS MONITORING CO WITH
                                 CONTINUOUS  SAMPLING METHOD, 1971
State
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
D.C.
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
American Samoa
Guam
Virgin Islands
Stations listed in SIP
Current
1971
1
0
2
0
44
1
2
14
2b
*u
3
1
0
9
0
1
3
3
*
0
12
3
0
4
0
10
0
0
1
0
22
2
22
if
0
It
3
3
12
0
0
0
0
4
*
4
1
3
9
1
1
0
0
0
0
Minimum required
for 1974
3
1
3
0
29
3
5
1
1
0
0
0
0
10
4
0
1
0
0
0
6
6
0
4
0
6
0
0
2
0
8
1
13
0
0
0
0
3
11
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
2
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
Proposed
for 1974
3
1
4
0
57
6
6
4
5
0
3
2
0
16
7
1
5
14
0
0
20
1 1
10
4
0
13
0
0
2
2
22
3
29
4
0
24
4
4
50
1
4
0
0
5
79
5
1
7
9
1
9
0
0
0
0
Stations listed in NADB
Total
1
0
0
0
29
1
0
0
6
2
0
0
0
1
2
2
1
1
1
0
2
3
0
0
0
10
0
1
0
0
10
4
12
1
0
11
4
0
2
0
2
0
0
4
6
0
0
5
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
Valid
0
0
0
0
23
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
8
1
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Invalid3
1
0
0
0
6
1
0
0
5
2
0
0
0
1
2
2
1
1
1
0
2
3
0
0
0
9
0
1
0
0
2
3
7
1
0
11
4
0
2
0
2
0
0
4
6
0
0
5
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
           Invalid because of insufficient data  for statistical  calculations.
           * = No data specified in SIP
E-6

-------
        Table  E-6.   STATE  INVENTORY OF STATIONS MONITORING TOTAL
             Ox  AND 03 WITH  CONTINUOUS SAMPLING METHOD,  1971
State
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
D C
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
American Samoa
Guam
Virgin Islands
Stations listed m SIP
Current
1971
1
0
2
0
68
1
3
4
lb
*
1
1
0
6
0
1
1
3
*
0
13
J
0
3
0
9
0
0
2
0
4
2
9
*
0
5
2
2
7
0
0
0
0
4
*
it
1
4
7
3
6
0
0
0
0
Minimum required
for 1974
4
0
3
0
32
3
5
1
1
4
1
0
0
10
4
2
3
3
5
0
6
6
0
0
2
6
0
0
2
0
7
3
16
2
0
16
4
3
11
0
0
1
0
5
19
2
0
7
5
0
4
0
0
0
0
Proposed
for 1974
4
0
3
0
81
6
7
4
2
3
1
2
0
12
7
2
5
12
6
0
19
12
5
5
3
13
0
0
3
1
7
3
23
5
0
24
4
3
44
0
4
1
0
7
81
5
1
7
7
3
11
0
0
0
0
Stations listed in NADB
Total
1
0
0
0
30
2
0
0
3
4
0
0
0
1
2
2
2
2
1
0
2
2
0
0
0
10
0
1
0
0
3
1
18
1
0
13
3
0
2
0
0
0
0
4
6
0
0
8
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                                   APPENDIX  F.
                  AIR QUALITY  TRENDS  AT  NASN STATIONS
     Table F-l presents observed annual mean levels and trends at individual urban
and nonurban NASN stations for total  suspended particulates from 1960 through 1971
and for sulfur dioxide at urban NASN  stations from 1964 through 1971.  Annual means
are denoted as zero in the table whenever  there were not sufficient valid data to
compute annual means.   The observed trends at these NASN stations do not necessarily
represent any spatial  or temporal changes  throughout a city or its AQCR.  As a group,
station trends provide an indication  of overall national changes in TSP and S02 at
center-city locations  and nonurban sites.

     The trends are defined over several time subintervals and are based on statis-
tically significant changes in geometric mean concentrations.  The long-term trends
are based on changes in mean concentrations between 4-year subintervals:  1960
through 1963, 1964 through 1967, and  1968  through 1971.  These are denoted in Table
F-l, as A, B, and C, respectively.

     For TSP, long-term behavior is indicated by the trends reported from 1960
through 1971 and 1964 through 1971.  Trends from 1960 through 1967 are  included for
better definition of the overall pattern.   For SC^, long-term behavior  is based on
trends from 1964 through 1971.  Recent, short-term behavior is indicated by change
from 1968 through 197l'.

     Each trend is categorized as DOM, IIP, or **, the latter denoting no detectable
change.  Short-term trends, 1968 through 1971, are sometimes categorized as LOW,
indicating that the geometric mean concentration for the interval was < 10 pg/m*
and that a more specific determination was unrealistic.

     Without accompanying data on meteorology and emission patterns, these trends
should not be extrapolated to predict future concentration levels or direction of
change.
                                         F-l

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