EPA-450/1-74-007
OCTOBER 1974
MONITORING AND AIR QUALITY
TRENDS REPORT, 1973
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Air and Waste Management
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
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EPA-450/1-74-007
MONITORING
AND AIR QUALITY
TRENDS REPORT, 1973
Monitoring and Data Analysis Division
Monitoring and Reports Branch
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Air and Waste Management
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
October 1974
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ACKNO WLEDGMENTS
The Office of Air and Waste Management of the Environmental Protection Agency would
like to thank the Regional Offices and the many state and local agencies that have
contributed to air quality data. Thanks also are extended to the Quality Assurance and
Environmental Monitoring Laboratory, NERC-RTP, for providing air quality data from
the National Air Surveillance Network.
This report has been reviewed by the Monitoring and Data Analysis Division, Office of
Air Quality Planning and Standards, Office of Air and Waste Management, Environmental
Protection Agency, and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial
products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. Copies are available
free of charge to Federal employees, current contractors and grantees, and nonprofit
organizations - as supplies permit - from the Air Pollution Technical Information Center,
Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711, or
copies may be purchased from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Print-
ing Office, Washington, D.C. 20460.
Publication No. EPA-450/1-74-007
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CONTENTS
Section Page
LIST OF TABLES v
LIST OF FIGURES vii
ABSTRACT ix
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS x
1. SUMMARY 1
2. INTRODUCTION 3
3. STATUS OF AIR QUALITY AND MONITORING ACTIVITY 5
3.1. Status of Air Quality 5
3.1.1. National Summary -By Station 5
3.1.2. National Summary - By AQCR 7
3.1.3. Distribution of AQCR1 s with Respect to Standards 9
3.1.4. Five-year Summary of AQCR Status 17
3.2. Status of Monitoring Activities 18
3.3. References for Section 3 67
4. TRENDS IN AIR QUALITY 69
4.1. Trends in Criteria Pollutants 69
4.1.1. Data and Methodology 69
4.1.2. National and Regional Trends in Total Suspended Particulates . 72
4.1.3. National and Regional Trends in Sulfur Dioxide 75
4.1.4. Trends in Oxidant 77
4.1.5. Trends in Carbon Monoxide 79
4.2. Trends in Organic Suspended Particulate 82
4.2.1. DataBase 83
4.2.2. Statistical Methodology 85
4.2.3. Trends in Benzene-soluble Organic Particulates 85
4.2.4. Trends in Benzo(a)pyrene 88
4.2.5. Analysis of BSO and BaP Data for 1971 and 1972 89
4.2.6. Trends Comparison with National Coal Consumption 91
4.3. References for Section 4 96
5. SPECIAL TOPICS 97
5.1. Impact of Energy Crisis on Sulfur Dioxide 97
5.1.1. Sulfur Dioxide Emissions 97
5.1.2. Ambient Sulfur Dioxide Levels 98
5.1.3. Effect of Meteorological Factors 106
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Section Page
5.1.4. Interpretation 110
5.2. Impact of Gasoline Shortage on Carbon Monoxide 110
5.2.1. Portland, Oregon 112
5.2.2. New York City 114
5.2.3. Mamaroneck, New York 115
5.2.4. Richmond, Virginia 115
5.3. High Nonurban Ozone Concentrations 117
5.3.1. Rural Maryland-West Virginia Studies 118
5.3.2. California Studies 121
5.3.3. Florida Studies 122
5.3.4. New York and Wisconsin Studies 123
5.3.5. On-going and Future Studies 123
5.4. References for Section 5 124
6. APPENDICES: SUMMARY OF DATA FROM AIR QUALITY MONITORING
STATIONS BY AIR QUALITY CONTROL REGION, 1973 127
A. Suspended Particulate Matter A-i
B. Sulfur Dioxide B-i
C. Carbon Monoxide C-i
D. Oxidant/Ozone D-i
E. Nitrogen Dioxide E-i
IV
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Table Page
5-6 Summary of Carbon Monoxide Concentrations for the Downtown
Portland, Oregon, Site for the Winter Seasons, 1971-74 113
5-7 Traffic Count, Gasoline Sales, and Public Transportation
for Portland, Oregon, during the 1973-74 Winter 113
5-8 Comparison of Average Carbon Monoxide Concentrations
at Three New York City Sites, 1972-73 and 1973-74 Winter Seasons 114
5-9 Weekly Average Carbon Monoxide Concentrations and Wind
Speeds in Richmond, Virginia, January 4 to February 28, 1974 116
5-10 Cumulative Frequency Distributions of Hourly Concentrations
of Ozone, Nitrogen Dioxide, and Nonmethane Hydrocarbon
by Station, Maryland-West Virginia Studies, June 26 to
September 30, 1973 120
5-11 Peak Hourly Concentrations of Ozone, Florida Studies,
January to June 1973 122
6-1 Approved, Candidate, and Unacceptable Pollutant Measurement Methods . . 128
A-l Suspended Particulate Data A-l
B-l Sulfur Dioxide Data (Bubbler) B-l
B-2 Sulfur Dioxide Data (Continuous) B-43
C-l Carbon Monoxide Data C-l
D-l Oxidant and Ozone Data D-l
E-l Nitrogen Dioxide Data E-l
VI
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ABSTRACT
This report presents a comprehensive tabulation of the nation's air quality and
monitoring activities for 1973. These summaries are based on data acquired through
extensive monitoring activities conducted by Federal, state, and local air pollution
control agencies, and compiled according to the nation's 247 Air Quality Control Regions.
Information is provided for the five pollutants for which National Ambient Air Quality
Standards have been set (suspended particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide,
oxidants, and nitrogen dioxide). Analyses of pollutant trends are presented, plus a study
of nonurban ozone concentrations and a preliminary examination of instances reflecting
the energy crisis.
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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
AQCR Air Quality Control Region
BaP Benzo(a)pyrene
BSO Benzene-soluble organic material
CO Carbon monoxide
EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standard
NADB National Aerometric Data Bank
NASN National Aerometric Surveillance Network
NO, Nitrogen dioxide
Ox Oxidants
RTI Research Triangle Institute
SAROAD Storage and Retrieval of Aerometric Data
SO7 Sulfur dioxide
£*
SPM Suspended particulate matter
TSP Total suspended particulate
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1973 data received by June 1, 1973, 92 percent of the required particulate monitoring
equipment is in operation. In a number of AQCR's, additional sites arc yielding even
better coverage. Seventy-seven percent of the 24-hour SO monitors are operating; 64
percent of the continuous SO,, instruments are operating . Carbon monoxide data are be-
ing reported from 77 percent of the required locations. Installation of the required oxi-
dant/ozone measuring equipment is 65 percent complete.
The general picture of nationwide trends in pollutant concentrations is downward.
Although many AQCR's are still reporting suspended particulate values and annual
averages above standards, additional progress was made in 1973, continuing the trend
noted in previous years.
The SO7 down-trend appears to be leveling off, which is not surprising since
Li
most reporting stations are now below the standards .
The majority of oxidant data is being supplied by California, and it exhibits a
downward trend in evident response to reduced automotive emissions.
Carbon monoxide data are quite limited, but an amelioration is evidenced in the
declining percentages of 8-hour averages exceeding the 8-hour standard.
An analysis of the benzene-soluble organic fraction of suspended particulate
samples, and of a specific organic constituent, benzo(a)pyrene, shows distinct decreases
in their concentrations over the period from 1960 to 1970. Both are considered to originate
chiefly from human activities. A steady shift in coal usage from relatively inefficient res-
idential space heating units to large, more efficient power plants is suggested as a pos-
sible major factor contributing to these observed decreases.
Although consequences of the energy crisis were only emerging toward the
end of calendar 1973, a preliminary study of SO2 data from the New York-New Jersey
area indicates a slight increase in levels in the 1973-74 winter, probably attributable
to the issuance of variances to switch some major users to more readily available
higher sulfur fuels. Examination of CO data from a few stations shows mixed results
depending on the nature of neighborhood traffic; decreases on the one hand, attributable
in part to meteorology and vehicle emission controls as well as possible reduced
traffic flow, and an instance of an increase attributed to lines of idling gasoline customers
near the monitoring station.
This last example points up the contrasting effects that can derive from a common
origin, the diminished gasoline supply in this case. This emphasizes the crucial need
for more comprehensive monitoring of environmental conditions and thorough analysis
of the data, not only to trace the past origins of present conditions but more importantly
to strengthen our ability to make reasonably dependable forecasts about the consequences
of contemplated future actions.
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2. INTRODUCTION
This report, third in a series issued periodically by the U.S. Environmental Pro-
tection Agency (EPA) through the Office of Air and Waste Management, summarizes the
nationwide status of our air quality in 1973 and the scope of the monitoring activities
that provide the necessary air quality measurements.
Trends over recent years are discussed at length. Several shorter sections on
selected aspects of data interpretation are also included.
The summaries of 1973 data presented in this report include results from Federally
sponsored monitoring stations , but the principal sources of information are the more ex-
tensive established and developing networks operated by or responsible to the state air
pollution control agencies.
Data are included on the five pollutants for which National Ambient Air Quality
Standards (NAAQS) have been set: suspended particulate matter (SPM), sulfur dioxide
(SO?) , carbon monoxide (CO), oxidants (Ox) , and nitrogen dioxide (NO ) . Data on
NO9, even though sparse, are included this year in anticipation that one of the present
Li
candidate analytical methods will be designated the reference method. This volume in-
cludes only data based on reference methods or on candidate methods that are pending
approval. A table is included with the introduction to the appendices, listing the refer-
ence methods, the as yet unapproved candidate methods, and the unacceptable methods
whose results will no longer be used in assessing air quality status.
Data acquired through the state-supervised monitoring networks are to be sub-
mitted to the EPA's National Aerometric Data Bank (NADB) on a quarterly basis. This
schedule is designed to facilitate periodic appraisal, on a nationwide scale, of both pro-
gress in implementing the monitoring networks themselves and progress toward achieving
the air quality standards. This schedule expects data for a calendar quarter to be submit-
ted through EPA's Regional Offices, entered in the data bank, and accessible for summa-
rization within 120 days after the close of that quarter.
The summaries in this report reflect the contents of the data bank as of the first
week in June 1974, 160 days after the end of the fourth quarter of 1973. Less than timely
submission of data explains some of the incomplete results for 1973. In other cases,
a partial year's data is the simple consequence of network startup where stations have
been initiated during the year. Both of these conditions contribute to the necessity
of identifying two categories for counting numbers of stations reporting to the NADB .
The first category, for the purpose of appraising air quality with reference to the
NAAQS's in Section 3.1, includes only those stations that have reported valid data
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for at least one quarter in 1973. (A subset of this group, those stations reporting all
four quarters, i.e. , a valid year, are also identified where annual standards pertain.)
The second category, used in Section 3.2 for the purpose of appraising monitoring
activity, includes all stations reporting any data for 1973, even if "the data consist
of less than a valid quarter.
The appendices include only the stations in the first category - those with at
least one valid quarter of data.
In each yearly report, we anticipate selecting one or more subjects for more
thorough discussion. There are two items in this year's Special Topics section: (1) a
preliminary examination of the impact of the energy crisis as seen in SO-, levels in
the New York-New Jersey area, and in contrasting effects of the gasoline shortage
on carbon monoxide levels, and (2) the results of studies on high nonurban or rural
ozone concentrations.
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3. STATUS OF AIR QUALITY AND MONITORING ACTIVITY
This section of the report evaluates the composite picture of the nation's air
quality in 1973 compared with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards, and the
status of the monitoring effort, in terms of the number of stations in operation and
planned, that makes such air quality evaluations possible.
3.1 STATUS OF AIR QUALITY
The summaries in this report are based on 1973 data submitted to and incorporated
in EPA's National Aerometric Data Bank as of the first week in June 1974. The majority of
the data have been supplied by state monitoring networks. Air quality data for less
than a complete year are reported for some stations. This deficiency may be attributed
either to the fact that new stations have been initiated during the year or to a situation
in which data are not yet being submitted according to schedule. Valid data for at
least one 3-month period are required for a station to be included in this section's
summaries.
The nationwide status of air quality in 1973 is depicted in two principal ways:
(1) a summary of all reporting stations and (2) a. summary of the 247 Air Quality
Control Regions comprising the 50 states, 4 territories, and the District of Columbia
covered by the Clean Air Act. The national summary of AQCR's is subdivided by priority
classification. Detailed summaries of data reported from individual stations within
each AQCR are presented in the appendices.
Comparisons of these data with those from previous years must be made cautiously
because the data base of reporting stations has not yet stabilized. For example, more
particulate monitoring stations reported at least one valid quarter in 1973 than in 1972
(3880 versus 2683 in the 1972 report) , but fewer submitted a complete year's data
(1300 in 1973 versus 1589 in 1972) . If the EPA data submittal schedule were being
met, complete 1973 data should have been in the bank by the end of April 1974. This
schedule expects state-collected data to reach EPA's Regional Offices within 45 days
after the close of a quarter, to be transmitted from the Regional Office to the NADB
within an additional 30 days, and to be incorporated into the data bank within the
following 45 days. Thus, 120 days after the close of a quarter, preliminary
summaries of that quarter's data should be available for review and validation.
3.1.1. National Summary - By Station
One aspect of the national air quality picture for 1973 is the status of individual
stations with respect to standards summarized in Table 3-1.
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Table 3-1. NATIONAL SUMMARY OF TOTAL STATIONS REPORTING DATA
AND NUMBER EXCEEDING AIR QUALITY STANDARDS, 1973
Pollutant and station status
Suspended parti culates
Stations with valid annual data
Exceeding annual secondary guide
Exceeding annual primary standard
Stations with >1 valid quarter's data
Exceeding 24-hour secondary standard
Exceeding 24-hour primary standard
Sulfur dioxide
Stations with valid annual data
Exceeding annual primary standard
Stations with >1 valid quarter's data
Exceeding 24-hour primary standard
Exceeding 3-hour secondary standard
Carbon monoxide
Stations with >1 valid quarter's data
Exceeding 1-hour standard
Exceeding 8-hour standard
Total oxidants or ozone
Stations with >1 valid quarter's data
Exceeding 1-hour standard
Nitrogen dioxide
Stations with >1 valid quarter's data
Stations with valid annual data
Exceeding annual standard
Number of stations
Total
1300
657
341
3380
1222
303
457
14
1623
40
20
212
24
153
187
162
588
54
9
Exceeding by
50%
185
71
444
84
5
19
3
77
118
0
100%
55
16
196
35
2
12
0
46
87
0
Approximately 25 percent of the suspended particulate stations reporting a valid
year's data (341 out of 1300) still exceeded the annual primary standard. The standard
was exceeded by 100 percent at 16 of those stations.
Only 3 percent of sulfur dioxide monitoring stations reporting a year's data (14
out of 457) exceeded the annual SC>2 standard.
In the case of carbon monoxide, the 8-hour standard remains the one most
difficult to meet. Almost 75 percent of the reporting stations (153 out of 212) exceeded
the 8-hour standard, and slightly over 10 percent (24 out of 212) exceeded the 1-hour
standard.
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The 1-hour oxidant standard was exceeded at 87 percent of the reporting stations.
Although a Federal reference method for nitrogen dioxide has not yet been
designated, data from the several candidate methods are included in this report. The
results are quite fragmentary because less than 10 percent of the reporting stations (53
out of 588) reported data for a complete year. Nine of the stations reported data that
exceeded the annual standard. Review of the analytical methods, and possibly of the
standard itself, could alter this picture.
3.1.2 National Summary - By AQCR
Table 3-2 lists the number of AQCR's in each priority class and the status of each
priority class with respect to standards for each pollutant. (Priority classifications
.are based on the severity of pollutant concentrations.) As with the station summaries,
comparisons with prior years must be made cautiously because the data base is not yet
stable from year to year.
The annual primary standard for suspended particulate was exceeded in more
than 50 percent of the Priority 1 AQCR's (66 out of 120) in 1973, and that count could go
higher because only 92 of the 120 Priority I AQCR's had reported a complete year's data
for at least one station as of June 1974. Almost 70 percent of the Priority I AQCR's
reported data that exceeded the 24-hour primary standard for particulate (83 out of
120). (This result was based on 118 out of 120 Priority I AQCR's reporting at least one
quarter's data from which to appraise their status with respect to the 24-hour particulate
standards.) The 24-hour standard is considered to be exceeded if the second highest
concentration recorded during the period is greater than 260 ng/rn .
Sulfur dioxide appears to be the most successfully controlled pollutant with only
10 AQCR's (8 Priority I and 2 Priority II) reporting stations exceeding the annual stand-
ard during 1973. However, only approximately half the AQCR's in these two priority
classes have reported valid annual data for 1973. Seventeen AQCR's report stations
exceeding the 24-hour standard (second highest reading is greater than 365 yg/m ) , one
of which is a Priority III AQCR.
Carbon monoxide is pervasive. Of the 30 Priority I AQCR's, 26 reported at least
1 quarter's data and 25 exceeded the 8-hour standard. (The 26th AQCR only reported the
equivalent of 4 months' data, mostly from the first half of the year .) Of particular
significance is the fact that of the 217 Priority III AQCR's, which are not required to
monitor for CO, 34 have established monitors and submitted data, and 28 report at least
one site at which the 8-hour CO standard is being exceeded.
Oxidants or ozone values are exceeding the 1-hour standard in almost every
Priority I AQCR reporting (39 out of 41) and in 75 percent of the Priority III AQCR's
reporting (12 out of 16) .
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Table 3-2. NATIONAL SUMMARY OF AIR QUALITY CONTROL REGIONS
BY AIR QUALITY STANDARDS STATUS, 1973
Pollutant and AQCR status
Suspended parti culates
AQCR's in each priority class
Reporting >1 valid station-year
Exceeding annual secondary guide
Exceeding annual primary standard
Reporting >1 valid station-quarter
Reporting only valid quarters
Exceeding 24-hour secondary standard
Exceeding 24-hour primary standard
Exceeding either secondary standard or guide
Exceeding either primary standard
Reporting insufficient data to compare
with standards
Sulfur dioxide
AQCR's in each priority class
Reporting*! valid station-year
Exceeding annual primary standard
Reporting >1 valid station-quarter
Reporting only valid quarters
Exceeding the 24-hour primary standard
Exceeding the 3-hour secondary standard
Exceeding either primary standard
Reporting insufficient data to compare
with standards
Carbon monoxide
AQCR's in each priority class
Reporting >1 valid station-quarter
Exceeding 1-hour standard
Exceeding 8-hour standard
Oxidants
AQCR's in each priority class
Reporting >1 valid station-quarter
Exceeding 1-hour standard
Nitrogen dioxide
AQCR's in each priority class
Reporting >1 valid station-quarter
Reporting >1 valid station-year
Exceeding primary standard
Number of AQCR's
Priority3
I
120
92
84
66
118
26
111
83
112
94
2
60
33
8
55
22
12
7
17
5
30
26
9
25
55
41
39
5
4
2
2
II
70
50
38
23
66
16
49
16
52
31
4
41
24
2
35
11
4
1
6
6
III
57
30
17
10
41
11
28
16
29
18
16
146
43
0
97
54
1
0
4
49
217
34
1
28
192
16
12
242
128
18
0
Total
247
172
139
99
225
53
188
115
193
143
22
247
100
10
187
87
17
8
27
60
247
60
10
53
247
57
51
247
132
20
2
Priority classification based on severity of individual pollutant
concentration in AQCR.
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Nitrogen dioxide priority classifications havi been substantially i. e v ;
the initial classifications; there are now five Priority 1's, and the reinuindi
Priority III. Of the five, only two reported a full year's data and both excoed-'d tiie
annual standard. None of the 18 Priority III AQCR's reporting a full year's data exceeded
the standard. These results remain tentative until a reference method is selected and the
equivalency of the remaining methods is appraised.
Figures 3-1 through 3-4 map the AQCR's exceeding primary standaids for pat-lie -
ulates , sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and oxjdant/ozone in 1973.
3.1.3 Distribution_of AQCR1 sjwith Respect^ to ^Standards
The analysis that follows is based on available data for 1973 , as of fhc first week in
June 1974, for Air Quality Control Regions reporting a minimum amount of valid data.
(One valid station-quarter for appraising a short-term standard; one valid station-year
for appraising an annual standard.) The AQCR's have been grouped according ir> the
station reporting the highest annual mean, and the second highest short-term (1-hour
or 24-hour) values. All concentration ranges are expressed as ratios to the standards.
This analysis enlarges on the summary in Table 3-2 (number of AQCR's exceeding
standards) by defining the degree to which the standards are being exceeded.
Such an analysis potentially masks some substantive distinctions, For example,
two different AQCR's, each with ten monitors, may both rank equally, based on their
maximum stations, yet the other nine stations in each network may reveal quite contrast-
ing conditions in the remainder of the two regions.
The incomplete nationwide picture developed from these summaries underestimates
the actual status of air quality because some networks are not yet fully operational and
because the reported data for a number of stations were not yet complete as of June J974.
For example, the station with the second highest 24-hour partirulate value in a'\ AQCR
has often not yet reported sufficient data to support what might also have been the hiciiest
annual mean in that AQCR. It does not inevitably follow, however, that the station v;ih
the second highest 24-hour value would necessarily have the highest annual mean.
Therefore, no attempt has been made to supplement the reported data by extrapolating
from the second highest 24-hour values in fragmentary data to postulated annual means.
These distributions of AQCR's identify the pollutants and AQCR categories where
progress is being made and where future effort needs to be focused .
It must be kept in mind that AQCR's reporting no dafa above a standard are not
yet conceded to be meeting that standard. If additional monitoring L-;;. it.' 1.5, art e>nt',
installed to meet the required or proposed network size, the possib.h.v e,>:ist:- -.at oo
additional data may reveal violations. Installation of all required or proposed mon.'.jrs
was to be completed by July 1, 1974. After these networks a^e reviewed '',r s._ j.nd
station placement, and approved as being adequate and rep. use- at • . , ye- 's rrcor-'
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CO
r-
O)
0)
ra
CO
a.
c:
o>
O-
if>
•3
CO
CD
10
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Second, the data presented for 1973 are not necessarily complete
because of the time-consuming nature of collecting, coding, computer-
izing, and authenticating such an enormous diversity of monitoring
data. The states have generally been very cooperative with EPA in
submitting these data, but problems in data handling and processing
have caused some delays. EPA believes that the states are making
adequate progress in establishing the required air quality monitoring
networks. These networks are expected to be fully completed by
early next year. EPA is also providing assistance to the states to
reduce any delays that occur in submitting the required data.
Despite these limitations, EPA takes the position that air
quality information should be made publically available as soon as
practicable. EPA believes that to postpone publication of these
data on the basis that more complete air quality evaluations are
possible at some later date is unjustified. Periodically, EPA
will reevaluate and publish summaries of air quality statistics as
new information becomes available.
ERRATA
The last two lines of values for sulfur
were incorrectly reported. The correct
as follows:
dioxide in
values for
Table 3-2, page 8,
sulfur dioxide are
Pollutant and AQCR status
Sulfur dioxide
AQCR's in each priority class
Reporting > 1 valid station-year
Exceeding annual primary standard
Reporting >_ 1 valid station-quarter
Reporting only valid quarters
Exceeding the 24-hour primary standard
Exceeding the 3-hour secondary standard
Exceeding either primary standard
Reporting insufficient data to compare
with standards
Number of AQCR's
Priority9
I
60
33
8
55
22
12
7
16
5
II
41
24
2
35
11
4
1
5
6
III
146
43
0
97
54
1
0
1
48
Total
247 •
100
10
187
87
17
8
22
59
Priority classification based on severity of individual pollu-
tant concentration in AQCR.
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EPA-450/1-74-007
MONITORING AND AIR QUALITY TRENDS REPORT, 1973
ADDENDUM AND ERRATA
DECEMBER 1974
ADDENDUM
This report is intended to portray recent nationwide air quality
trends and air quality status for the year 1973 for air pollutants
for which National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) have been
established. The data used in preparation of this report are the
latest available monitoring information reported by the states or
collected by EPA and summarized in the National Air Data Bank (NADB).
It must be pointed out that the majority of these data were collected
in heavily industrialized or populated portions of the country and
as such do not reflect the full impact of major point sources such
as coal-fired utility plants that are located in nonurban areas.
It is estimated that over 97 percent of the monitoring sites were
established to monitor urban pollution levels and only very recent-
ly have the states' monitoring resources and monitoring priorities
been directed to monitoring the effects of large, more isolated
pollutant sources.
There are several additional factors that must be considered
when using this report to interpret the air quality status of any
particular geographical area. First, as explained in the report,
the states' monitoring networks are not yet fully established and,
thus, do not always represent the full geographical coverage required
in assessing air quality. As a consequence, violations of the
air quality standards may be presently undetected in some regions.
For example, on a nationwide basis, the states' implementation pdans
propose a^total of 698 continuous sulfur dioxide monitors and 1434
bubblers. As of June 1974, (the cutoff date to prepare summaries
for publication), 350 of the proposed continuous instruments (50
percent) and 1104 of the proposed bubblers (77 percent) were report-
ing at least fragmentary data to the NADB.t There were 59 AQCR's
reporting either no data or insufficient data (less than a valid
quarter for any station) to support even the most tentative appraisal
of the 24-hour standard.
Monitoring and Air Quality Trends Report, 1973. Table 3-6, p. 65.
'More stations have been reported to the NADB (422 continuous,
1506 bubblers) but these represent extended networks in certain
AQCR's.
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Second, the data presented for 1973 are not necessarily complete
because of the time-consuming nature of collecting, coding, computer-
izing, and authenticating such an enormous diversity of monitoring
data. The states have generally been very cooperative with EPA in
submitting these data, but problems in data handling and processing
have caused some delays. EPA believes that the states are making
adequate progress in establishing the required air quality monitoring
networks. These networks are expected to be fully completed by
early next year. EPA is also providing assistance to the states to
reduce any delays that occur in submitting the required data.'
Despite these limitations, EPA takes the position that air
quality information should be made publically available as soon as
practicable. EPA believes that to postpone publication of these
data on the basis that more complete air quality evaluations are
possible at some later date is unjustified. Periodically, EPA
will reevaluate and publish summaries of air quality statistics as
new information becomes available.
ERRATA
The last two lines of values for sulfur dioxide in Table 3-2, page 8,
were incorrectly reported. The correct values for sulfur dioxide are
as follows:
Pollutant and AQCR status
Sulfur dioxide
AQCR's in each priority class
Reporting > 1 valid station-year
Exceeding annual primary standard
Reporting >_ 1 valid station-quarter
Reporting only valid quarters
Exceeding the 24-hour primary standard
Exceeding the 3-hour secondary standard
Exceeding either primary standard
Reporting insufficient data to compare
with standards
Number of AQCR's
Priority9
I
60
33
8
55
22
12
7
16
5
II
41
24
2
35
11
4
1
5
6
III
146
43
0
97
54
1
0
1
48
Total
247 •
100
10
187
87
17
8
22
59
Priority classification based on severity of individual pollu-
tant concentration in AQCR.
-------
EPA-450/1-74-007
MONITORING AND AIR QUALITY TRENDS REPORT, 1973
ADDENDUM AND ERRATA
DECEMBER 1974
ADDENDUM
This report is intended to portray recent nationwide air quality
trends and air quality status for the year 1973 for air pollutants
for which National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) have been
established. The data used in preparation of this report are the
latest available monitoring information reported by the states or
collected by EPA and summarized in the National Air Data Bank (NADB).
It must be pointed out that the majority of these data were collected
in heavily industrialized or populated portions of the country and
as such do not reflect the full impact of major point sources such
as coal-fired utility plants that are located in nonurban areas.
It is estimated that over 97 percent of the monitoring sites were
established to monitor urban pollution levels and only very recent-
ly have the states' monitoring resources and monitoring priorities
been directed to monitoring the effects of large, more isolated
pollutant sources.
There are several additional factors that must be considered
when using this report to interpret the air quality status of any
particular geographical area. First, as explained in the report,
the states' monitoring networks are not yet fully established and,
thus, do not always represent the full geographical coverage required
in assessing air quality. As a consequence, violations of the
air quality standards may be presently undetected in some regions.
For example, on a nationwide basis, the states' implementation p^ans
propose a^total of 698 continuous sulfur dioxide monitors and 1434
bubblers. As of June 1974, (the cutoff date to prepare summaries
for publication), 350 of the proposed continuous instruments (50
percent) and 1104 of the proposed bubblers (77 percent) were report-
ing at least fragmentary data to the NADB.t There were 59 AQCR's
reporting either no data or insufficient data (less than a valid
quarter for any station) to support even the most tentative appraisal
of the 24-hour standard.
*
Monitoring and Air Quality Trends Report, 1973, Table 3-6, p. 65.
'More stations have been reported to the NADB (422 continuous,
1506 bubblers) but these represent extended networks in certain
AQCR's.
-------
O)
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Q)
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-------
of data below a standard will then support the affirmation that a region is in compliance
with that standard.
3.1.3.1 Particulates
The classification of AQCR's as Priority I for suspended particulates appears to
be justified based on recent air quality measurements versus the primary 24-hour and
annual particulate standards. Figure 3-5 shows the distribution of AQCR's as cate-
gorized by the stations with the highest annual or second highest 24-hour values.
PRIORITY
RATIO TO
STANDARD
> 3.0
2.51-3.0
2.01 - 2.5
1.71-2.0
1.41-1.7
1.21-1.4
1.11-1.2
1.01-1.1
0.91-1.0
0.81 -0.9
0.61 - 0.8
0.31 - 0.6
<0.3
RATIO TO
STANDARD
>3.0
2.51-3.0
2.01 -2.5
1.71 -2.0
1.41 -1.7
1.21 -1.4
1.11-1.2
1.01-1.1
0.91 -1.0
0.81 - 0.9
0.61 - 0.8
0.31 - 0.6
< 0.3
1 II III
^6
|H
IB
119
117
-1^'°
m£,
112
0
0
-U
-p4
|3
A
|22
he
12
0
fr
0
•S
|14
11
a. SECOND HIGH 24-hour VALUE
PRIORITY
II III
_1
" 1
R'
16
16
JlO
|g
0
0
0
0
K
:n«L.
|9
__L6
18
112
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0
0
Q
0
-t2
J3
J3
^'
24-hour
STANDARD
PRIMARY ANNUAL MEAN
STANDARD
b. MAXIMUM ANNUAL MEAN VALUE
Figure 3-5. Distribution of AQCR's according to 24-hour and
annual particulate standards, 1973.
-------
In Priority I AQCR's concentrations as high as three times both the 24-hour and the
annual standards were reported. (The analysis of the 24-hour values is based on the
second highest value, which, if over the standard, constitutes a violation of that standard.)
The bulk of the Priority II and Priority III AQCR's for suspended particulate are
reporting data below both standards, but a few are reporting 24-hour values almost
as high as those in the Priority I group, with concentrations as much as two and three
times the 24-hour standard. Annual means reported from Priority II and Priority III
AQCR's do not range above twice the primary annual standard.
Suspended particulates still constitute a significant problem in many AQCR's
and, on the basis of number of AQCR's reporting, appear to be the principal problem
when compared with the graphs of the other pollutants in the following sections. In part,
this appearance is a consequence of the fact that monitoring for particulates is more
extensive than for the other pollutants. As the networks achieve their proposed capacity
for monitoring and reporting , the status of these other pollutants will be more clearly
definable.
3.1.3.2 Sulfur Dioxide
Although the 24-hour SOo standard is still being exceeded by a factor of three
in five AQCR's based on the second highest 24-hour value, the majority of AQCR's in
all priority classifications are below the 24-hour standard as shown in Figure 3~6a.
Among AQCR's reporting valid yearly data, the picture is even better for the SO2
annual mean as shown in Figure 3-6b. Except for a few Priority I AQCR's that were
substantially over the standard (40 percent or more) , the annual mean SO2 standard
appears to be the closest to achievement, based on present data.
It should be kept in mind that, for all practical purposes, these data precede
the period of substantial fuel conversions, which no doubt will continue through 1974
and beyond. The success with which emission control equipment can compensate for
the expanded use of fuels with higher sulfur and ash contents will be closely scrutinized
in future air quality assessments. A preliminary discussion of the impact of energy
developments on air quality is presented in Section 5 of this report.
3.1.3.3 Carbon Monoxide
As shown in Figure 3-7, the majority of the AQCR;s reporting data on CO are
not exceeding the 1-hour standard; i.e. , their second highest 1-hour values are less
than 40 mg/m3.
The most outstanding feature in the CO data is the evidence that the 8-hour standard
(shown in Figure 3-?b) is being exceeded in many Priority III AQCR's to a degree scarcely
distinguishable from the Priority I AQCR's.
15
-------
PRIORITY
RATIO TO
STANDARD ' » m
> 3.0
2.51 - 3.0
2.01 - 2.5
1.61-2.0
1.31-1.6
1.11-1.3
1.01-1.1
0.91-1.0
0.81 • 0.9
0.61 - 0.8
0.31 • 0.6
< 0.3
r
0
ll
J3
|2
[5
[1
I6
112
119
0
0
5.
0
0
ll
0
0
ll
113
117
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TI
|3
"~| 7
n 185
PRIMARY 24-hour
STANDARD
a. SECOND HIGH 24-hour VALUE
PRIORITY
RATIO TO . .. ...
STANDARD ' " '"
•> 3.0
2.01 -3.0
1.71-2.0
1.41-1.7
1.21-1.4
1.11-1.2
1.01-1.1
0.91-1.0
0.81 - 0.9
0.61 - 0.8
0.31 • 0.6
<0.3
1
1
1
1
0
\
J2
0
n*
16
113
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
0
]l
n34
114
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
]36
ANNUAL MEAN
STANDARD
b. MAXIMUM ANNUAL MEAN VALUE
Distribution of AQCR's according to 24-hour and
annual sulfur dioxide standards, 1973.
3.1.3.4 Oxidant/Ozone
Almost all AQCR's that are classified Priority I for oxidants, and have reported
at least a quarter's valid data, are exceeding the 1-hour standard (see Figure 3-8).
The majority of the Priority III AQCR's also exceed the standard, but by less than 50
percent in most cases - in contrast to the 100 percent (two times the standard) that
characterizes the Priority I AQCR's.
16
-------
PRIORITY
RATIO TO
STANDARD
1.21-1.5
1.01-1.2
0.81-1.0
0.61 - 0.8
0.31 - 0.6
<;0.3
1
1 III
1
1
17
0
0
H
H
HI
1"
11
1-hour
STANDARD
a. SECOND HIGH 1-hour VALUE
PRIORITY
RATIO TO
STANDARD
> 3.0
2.01 - 3.0
1.51-2.0
1.21 - 1.5
1.01-1.2
0.81 - 1.0
0.61 - 0.8
0.31 - 0.6
< 0.3
1 III
:=?"
l
0
0
0
0
0
0
8-hour
STANDARD
b. SECOND HIGH 8-hour VALUE
Figure 3-7. Distribution of AQCR's according to 1-hour and
8-hour carbon monoxide standards, 1973.
3.1.4 Five-year Summary of AQCR Status
Table 3~3 presents a 5-year summary of the number of stations reporting from
each AQCR and the number of stations exceeding the various standards. Nitrogen dioxide
is reported separately in Table 3-4 because the data are quite limited.
On the line with the number and name of each AQCR listed in Table 3-3 is its
Priority Classification (PRTY) for each pollutant. Following, in parentheses, is the
minimum number of required monitors for that pollutant as specified in the Federal
Register.
In the column headings of Table 3-3, two different counts of stations are presented.
One, #STA (1), counts only those stations reporting a full year's data (four valid quar-
ters) necessary for appraising status with respect to annual standards. The other,
#STA (2) , includes stations with at least one valid quarter for purposes of evaluating
status with respect to short-term standards. Obviously, if stations with less than a
complete year's data show no values exceeding a short-term standard, the status is
inconclusive. Further, the status of an AQCR must be considered inconclusive if the
number of stations reporting a valid year's data is less than the minimum number required.
17
-------
RATIO TO
PRIORITY
III
>4.0
3.01 - 4.0
2.01 - 3.0
1.51-2.0
1.21-1.5
1.01-1.2
0.81-1.0
0.61 - 0.8
0.31 - 0.6
<0.3
1"
J2
0
0
0
0
0
Sb,
12
0
0
1-hour
STANDARD
Figure 3-8. Distribution of AQCRs according to 1-hour
oxidant/ozone standard, 1973.
The remaining headings in Table 3-3 identify the columns listing the number
of stations exceeding the various standards for each pollutant. The values of those
standards are included in the headings, in both micrograms per cubic meter (ug/cu.m.) -
milligrams per cubic meter for CO - and in parts per million (ppm) .
3.2 STATUS OF MONITORING ACTIVITIES
In contrast to other sections of this report in which stations are included only if
they have reported at least one valid quarter of data, this appraisal of the status of
monitoring activity is based on all stations reporting any data to the National Aerometric
Data Bank for 1973. Consequently, the numbers of stations will be larger than those
tabulated elsewhere.
The contrast is presented explicitly in Table 3-5. Total stations reporting any
data are compared with stations reporting data for at least one valid quarter and a complete
valid year for 1970 through 1973. Table 3-5 includes the total stations required by regula-
tions and the total proposed in the State Implementation Plans. Many states, recognizing
the tenuous coverage afforded by the minimum required network, proposed more compre-
hensive monitoring in their plans. A state is obligated to the proposed network if it is
larger than the required minimum. Although the total of reporting stations is larger
than the number obligated or required, some AQCR's have more extensive monitoring
than the minimum required or obligated, while others have yet to fully implement their
networks; thus, the percentage of required stations in actual operation may be less
than 100 percent.
It is clear from Table 3-5 that monitoring activity has expanded markedly since 1970.
From the disparities between "stations reporting any data" and "stations reporting valid
annual data," it is also evident that the completeness of the reported data leaves much to
be desired.
18
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Table 3-4. STATUS OF NITROGEN DIOXIDE MONITORING STATIONS
REPORTING VALID ANNUAL DATA, 1973
Air Quality Control Region
013 Clark-Mohave (AZ-NV)
015 Phoenix-Tucson (AZ)
024 Metropolitan Los Angeles (CA)
025 North Central Coast (CA)
026 North Coast (CA)
028 Sacramento Valley (CA)
029 San Diego (CA)
030 San Francisco Bay Area (CA)
031 San Joaquin Valley (CA)
032 South Central Coast (CA)
033 Southeast Desert (CA)
043 New Jersey-New York-Connecticut (NJ-NY-CT)
045 Metropolitan Philadelphia (DE-NJ-PA)
070 Metropolitan St. Louis (IL-MO)
077 Evansville-Owensboro-Henderson (IN-KY)
078 Louisville (IN-KY)
079 Metropolitan Cincinnati (IN-KY-OH)
148 Northwest Nevada (NV)
151 Northeast Penn-Upper Del Val (PA-NJ)
174 Greater Metropolitan Cleveland (OH)
Priority3
III
III
I (10)c
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
I (10)c
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
Number
of
stations
1
1
15
3
1
4
1
6
5
1
2
2
1
5
1
1
1
1
1
1
Stations
exceeding
standard"
0
0
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
aPriority classification based on severity of individual pollutant concentra-
tion in AQCR.
National primary annual air quality standard for nitrogen dioxide = 100
(0.05 ppm).
°Number of required monitors in parentheses.
Table 3-6 presents, by state, the total stations reporting any data, compared with
the number to which they have obligated themselves in their implementation plans and
with the minimum required number. Listed adjacent to those obligated and minimum
required totals are the current numbers of obligated or required stations actually reporting;
from the regions comprising each state. A state's total, which is the summation of the
totals for individual intrastate AQCR's and state portions of interstate AQCR's, may
61
-------
Table 3-5. NATIONAL SUMMARY OF MONITORING STATIONS REPORTING
TO NATIONAL AEROMETRIC DATA BANK. JUNE 1974
Station and year
Stations reporting
any data
1970
1971
1972
1973
SIP obligated
% completed
Federal Register
requirements
% completed
Stations reporting
21 valid
quarter's data
1970
1971
1972
1973
Stations reporting
valid annual data
1970
1971
1972
1973
Pollutant and method
TSP
hi-vol
1345
2099
3033
3591
3512
86
1341
92
1263
1947
2931
3390
750
1020
1873
1306
S02
continuous
107
223
335
422
698
. 50
213
64
63
125
173
250
17
37
60
51
S02
bubbler
332
596
1080
1506
1434
77
565
77
316
527
986
1385
155
199
517
394
CO
continuous
82
171
241
289
457
52
137
77
63
106
144
213
24
47
70
62
Ox
continuous
53
99
181
252
455
38
214
65
45
68
121
188
28
28
49
52
be larger than the obligated or required number, yet the final number of obligated or
required stations actually reporting may not measure up because one or more AQCR's
within the state are deficient. The minimum required number of stations for each AQCR
is included in Table 3-3 of the preceding subsection. In interstate AQCR's, the total
stations are apportioned among the component states according to the population in
each state portion of the AQCR .
Table 3-7 summarizes the total stations reporting compared with the number
of obligated and required stations actually reporting for the 10 EPA regions.
62
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65
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Table 3-7. NUMBER OF STATIONS REPORTING IN 1973 VERSUS STATE
IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (SIP) AND FEDERAL REGISTER REQUIREMENTS,
BY EPA REGION
Pollutant
Total suspended
parti cul ate
Stations reporting
Proposed in SIP°
Number reporting^
Minimum required
Number reporting
Sulfur dioxide
(24-hr)
Stations reporting
Proposed in SIP
Number reporting
Minimum required
Number reporting
Sulfur dioxide
(continuous)
Stations reporting
Proposed in SIP
Number reporting
Minimum required
Number reporting
Carbon monoxide
Stations reporting
Proposed in SIP
Number reporting
Minimum required
Number reporting
Oxidants
Stations reporting
Proposed in SIP
Number reporting
Minimum required
Number reporting
EPA Region
I
202
219
195
88
85
127
136
no
61
54
26
63
24
24
11
8
24
8
16
4
6
25
5
16
3
II
378
426
345
96
96
100
30
17
56
48
85
122
82
28
25
41
54
40
21
18
23
32
20
25
18
III
450
365
343
175
166
159
122
99
78
56
61
122
49
30
21
38
87
32
21
14
29
76
23
26
18
IV
729
647
575
276
264
464
440
377
116
101
51
60
37
31
20
28
29
18
3
2
33
36
19
22
15
V
703
773
636
256
216
304
319
232
147
104
79
158
76
56
35
33
70
32
18
14
21
64
19
34
18
VI
427
409
369
104
104
189
227
156
65
63
15
75
13
18
8
25
86
10
2
1
15
94
15
31
15
VII
229
207
197
104
104
77
61
55
31
24
28
17
15
5
4
23
19
18
7
7
24
20
18
11
9
VIII
116
130
97
67
48
16
42
10
34
13
10
17
9
5
2
6
11
6
5
3
7
11
6
5
3
IX
184
186
144
98
83
49
40
34
39
22
53
39
35
10
7
71
65
62
33
32
84
89
83
36
35
X
173
162
121
77
74
21
25
14
29
18
14
26
10
6
4
16
14
12
11
11
10
10
8
8
8
Total
3591
3524
3022
1341
1240
1506
1442
1104
656
503
422
699
350
213
137
289
459
238
137
106
252
457
216
214
142
These figures represent the number of stations reporting to the National
Aerometric Data Bank as of June 15, 1974.
These figures represent the number of stations proposed in the State Implemen-
tation Plans and the number of stations actually reporting.
°These figures represent the number of stations needed to satisfy the minimum
Federal requirements as defined in the Federal Register-^ and the number of
stations actually reporting.
66
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3.3 REFERENCES FOR SECTION 3
1. Title 40 - Protection of Environment. National Primary and Secondary Ambient Air
Quality Standards. Federal Register. 36(84): 8187, April 30, 1971.
2. Monitoring and Air Quality Trends Report, 1972. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Research Triangle Park , N.C. Publication Number EPA-450/1-73-004 .
December 1973.
3. Title 42 - Public Health. Requirements for Preparation, Adoption, and Submittal
of Implementation Plans. Federal Register. 36(158): 15492 , August 14, 1971.
67
-------
-------
4. TRENDS IN AIR QUALITY
Air quality trends in criteria pollutants and in organic suspended particulates -
and the techniques employed in analyzing the data - are presented in this section.
Although an assessment of national trends can be made for total suspended particulate,
sulfur dioxide, benzene-soluble organic suspended particulates, and benzo(a)pyrene,
only limited data on oxidant and carbon monoxide are available. Therefore, specific
geographic areas are discussed in the sections dealing with Ox and CO.
4.1 TRENDS IN CRITERIA POLLUTANTS
This section discusses trends in criteria pollutants, other than nitrogen dioxide,
on both a national and regional basis for total suspended particulate and sulfur dioxide
and in specific geographic areas for oxidant and carbon monoxide. For purposes of
regional comparison, the nation was divided into five geographical areas: Northeast,
South, North Central, Midwest, and West. In terms of EPA Regions, the Northeast consists
of EPA Regions I, II, and III; the South of EPA Region IV; the North Central of EPA Region
V; the Midwest of EPA Regions VI, VII, and VIII; and the West of EPA Regions IX and
X. Figure 4-1 outlines the size and shape of these geographical areas. Characterization
of NC>2 trends is omitted because difficulties in measurement methodology have resulted
in an extremely limited historical data base for that pollutant.
4.1.1 Data and Methodology
All the data used in this analysis are from the National Aerometric Data Bank ,
which is comprised of data from state and local monitoring networks and from Federal
networks. The purpose of this section is to present a general description of recent
trends in concentrations of criteria pollutants. With this in mind, 1970 and later monitoring
data were selected using fairly relaxed criteria in order to include as many sites as
seemed reasonable. The specific criterion for each pollutant is indicated in Table 4-1.
To be included in the analysis, a site had to meet this pollutant criterion in either 1970 or
1971 and either 1972 or 1973. The number of sites satisfying this requirement for each
geographical region is indicated in Figure 4-1. It is apparent from this figure that the
data bases for carbon monoxide and oxidant are extremely limited in geographical scope.
This could be expected because many regions are in the process of initiating their monitor-
ing networks for these pollutants. In contrast, California has had an extensive monitoring
network for a wide variety of pollutants for several years; so the bulk of the Ox data and
much of the CO data are from this state.
Table 4-2 shows the number of sites meeting the validity criterion for each pollu-
tant during various time periods. These figures confirm a definite increase in monitoring
69
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Table 4-1. STATION VALIDATION CRITERIA FOR NAAQS POLLUTANTS
OTHER THAN NITROGEN DIOXIDE
Pollutant
Total suspended particulate
Sulfur dioxide
Oxidant
Carbon monoxide
Validity criterion
a
Valid
Valid year b'c
Valid third quarterc
Valid quarterc
aTo be included in this analysis, a site had to meet this criterion
in either 1970 or 1971 and 1972 or 1973.
For TSP and S02 noncontinuous sampling instruments (>_24-hour measure-
ments), a valid year of data is defined as a year of data with four
valid quarters, in each of which a minimum of 5 samples were taken.
If no samples are collected in 1 month, neither of the other 2 months
in that quarter may have less than 2 samples reported.
For Ox, CO, and S02 continuous sampling instruments (<24-hour measure-
ment), each quarter and year must have at least 75 percent of the
total number of possible observations.
activity as illustrated by a comparison of the number of sites satisfying the trend criteria
during 1972 or 1973 with those in 1970 or 1971. There was an increase of 90 percent
for TSP and well over 100 percent for the other three pollutants. In fact, because data
from 1973 are still being received by the National Aerometric Data Bank, the actual
increases are probably even greater.
The choice of a validity criterion for each pollutant was based upon a considera-
tion of the amount of data available and the relative degree of seasonality that character-
ized the pollutant. A large number of sites satisfied the valid year criterion for TSP
and SO2, and this was used as the requirement. The limited data bases for CO and
Ox indicated the need for a less restrictive criterion; so validity was based upon
quarterly data. A valid third quarter was required for oxidant in order to ensure that the
typical oxidant season (summer) was represented. Although carbon monoxide is also
seasonal, no particular quarter was preselected because the seasonality is not as pro-
nounced as that for oxidants.
An important factor in any analysis is the selection of the appropriate parameter.
In terms of relevance, particular attention should be given to those parameters that
relate to the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. However, the present analysis does
not take meteorological factors into consideration. With this in mind, emphasis is placed
upon parameters that are relatively stable indicators of air quality and not as suscept-
able to temporary, atypical meteorology. For example, the geometric mean is used for
TSP and the arithmetic mean for SO2 rather than the maximum or second highest 24-hour
values. Similarly for CO and Ox , consideration is given to the number of times a standard
71
-------
Table 4-2. NUMBER OF SITES SATISFYING
VALIDITY CRITERION FOR SELECTED TIME PERIODS
Pollutant
TSP
S02
CO
Ox
Validity
criterion
Valid year
Valid year
Valid quarter
Valid third
quarter
Time period
1970
or
1971
1248
305
111
53
1972
or
1973
2364
793
252
148
1970 or 1971
and
1972 or 1973
984
213
66
28
All 4 years
251
37
27
15
was exceeded as well as to peak values. These types of parameters, when averaged
over many sites for a 4-year interval, should alleviate most of the possible influences
of meteorology.
Most of the analysis is descriptive and relies upon graphical analysis and partic-
ularly upon the use of composite averages. In constructing these composite averages,
interpolated values were used for any year in which the validity check was not satisfied.
These missing values for each site were determined by linear interpolation for missing
points within the time interval and by assuming no change when end points were missing .
This practice avoided apparent fluctuations in levels caused by variation in the number
of sites contributing to the composite in certain years. Although these substituted
values could affect specific features of the composite graph, comparisons with subsets
of sites having complete data indicated no significant alteration of the general trends.
Because many sites are missing in the 1973 data, this method seems to be a reasonable
compromise and results in plausible comparisons between the 2-year periods of 1970-1971
and 1972-1973.
A final factor affecting the presentation is that the data do not constitute a random
sample. Therefore, regional comparisons are not necessarily valid because the sites
in one region may only reflect high values, whereas another area may have many rural
sites contributing to the composite average. Furthermore, because the sites are not
randomly distributed throughout the regions, it is possible that the composite graphs
may be dominated by sites from one particular city. Where these factors seem significant,
they are indicated in the analysis.
4.1.2. National and Regional Trends in TSP
During the 4-year period from 1970 to 1973, a general decline in total suspended
particulate levels occurred throughout the nation. This trend occurred in all five geo-
graphic areas as indicated by the regional and national composite averages in Figure 4-2.
These downward trends in TSP are consistent with the trends observed in annual averages
for the National Aerometric Surveillance Network during the period 1960 through 1972.
1,2
72
-------
0)
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in
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-------
This analysis confirms that ambient suspended particulate concentrations are continuing
to improve even though many stations are recording concentrations in excess of the
NAAQS.
The composite graph of the annual averages for TSP of the 35 background sites
is also presented in Figure 4-2. Essentially it shows a slight decline caused primarily
by decreases in the Midwest.
The Storage and Retrieval of Aerometric Data (SAROAD) coding system permits
classification of the monitoring sites into three broad surveillance categories: (1)
population-oriented, (2) source-oriented, and (3) background. Table 4-3 presents
this breakdown for the various geographical areas involved in this analysis. Although
this does not constitute a precise categorization of the sites, it is sufficient to indicate
that in all regions the population-oriented monitoring sites predominate. It is reasonable,
therefore, to assume that the trends presented here primarily reflect recent patterns
in urbanized population centers. As air quality monitoring efforts continue to increase,
it will become possible to obtain a more complete picture of air quality at all types of
sites.
j
Table 4-3. SURVEILLANCE CATEGORIES FOR TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICULATE SITES
(number of si tes)
Surveillance type
Population-oriented
Source-oriented
Background
Total
Geographical area
Northeast
333
9
8
350
South
95
1
3
99
North
Central
179
10
7
196
Mi dwes t
243
1
11
255
West
75
3
6
84
Nation
925
24
35
984
Another indicator of the general improvements in TSP air quality is the decrease
in the numbers of stations reporting concentrations above the primary NAAQS. Table 4-4
shows the status of the trend sites with respect to the annual mean TSP standards. The
percentage of sites between the two standards remained relatively constant, but the
general downward trend is evidenced by the increasing percentage of sites below the
primary standard. The trend is also occurring at higher concentration levels with 28
percent of the sites being above 90 nig/m^ in the 1970-71 period compared with only
18 percent in this range in the 1972-73 period.
This indication of a general downward pattern in TSP levels is indicative of
the general success of control measures for particulate.
74
-------
Table 4-4. STATUS OF SITES MEASURING TOTAL SUSPENDED
PARTICULATE WITH RESPECT TO ANNUAL MEAN STANDARD
(percent)
1970 to 1971
1972 to 1973
Below
secondary
standard
32
44
Between
secondary
and primary
23
24
Above
primary
45
32
Specific localities, however, may not be following this general pattern. Such cases
may be the result of atypical meteorology, lack of fully implemented control regulations,
or departures from these regulations by the granting of variances. For example, meteor-
ological factors such as a long-term drying trend could be important. Detailed studies
of such matters are in progress.
4.1.3 National and Regional Trends in Sulfur Dioxide
As indicated in previous trends reports, ^ a pronounced decline in sulfur dioxide
levels has occurred throughout the nation. As shown in Figure 4-3, this downward
trend is apparent throughout the nation with, perhaps, a certain degree of leveling
off at stations at which concentrations are well below the annual standard. In comparing
the 1970-71 period with the 1972-73 period, the percentage of sites used in the trends
analysis that exceeded the annual average standard dropped from 8 percent to 3 percent.
In presenting these trends in sulfur dioxide levels, it is important to consider
the geographical distribution of the sites. Table 4-5 indicates that 199 out of 213 (93
percent) of the sites used in this analysis were population-oriented. This indicates
that these downward trends are representative of general patterns in urbanized popula-
tion centers and may not adequately reflect SC>2 levels in the vicinity of nonurban point
Table 4-5. SURVEILLANCE CATEGORIES FOR SULFUR DIOXIDE SITES
(number of sites)
Surveillance type
Population-oriented
Source-oriented
Background
Total
Geographical area
Northeast
65
1
4
70
South
18
1
2
21
North
Central
62
2
2
66
Midwest
33
0
2
35
Uest
21
0
0
21
Nation
199
4
10
213
75
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sources. The 10 background sites were also examined and the composite graph of their
annual averages is indicated in Figure 4-3. As can be seen, the SC>2 levels have remained
relatively stable over the 4-year period.
In discussing recent trends in SO2 levels, special attention should be given to the
possible impact of the recent energy crisis. In previous trends reports, the effect of
sulfur regulations, strong enforcement practices, and fuel switching upon SC>2 levels
has been discussed. The impact of recent variances was not treated in this general
discussion because the data were not generally available in sufficient quantities during
the winter of 1973-74 to permit such an evaluation. A case study of the impact of the
energy shortage on SC>2 air quality is presented, however, in Section 5.1 of this report.
4J.4. Trends in Oxidant
As indicated in the discussion on the air quality data base, most of the sites
measuring oxidant that met the minimum trend criterion are located in California. The
other sites outside California that met the trend analysis criterion are not discussed
because of their heterogeneous nature and because they are too few to adequately provide
an indication of any national trends. The 22 sites located in California were examined
within four groupings: Coastal Los Angeles (Downtown Los Angeles, West Los Angeles,
Lennox, and Long Beach), Noncoastal Los Angeles (Anaheim, Azusa, LaHabra, Reseda,
and Redlands), the San Francisco Bay Area (Fremont, Oakland, Pittsburg , Redwood
City, San Leandro, and San Rafael) , and the remaining California sites. Both averages
of the second highest annual 1-hour average oxidant levels as well as the average annual
number of hourly values exceeding the 1-hour NAAQS were examined for composite
groups within the Los Angeles area and the Bay area during the 4-year period from
1970 to 1973.
In general, the trends found at these California sites confirm the longer-term oxidant
trends previously reported. ' This improvement has been noted both in the magnitude
of the peak hourly oxidant concentrations indicated in Figure 4-4 as well as the number
of values above the 1-hour NAAQS presented in Table 4-6.
The group of sites within the Los Angeles Air Quality Control Region that has
experienced some of the historical oxidant problems continues to show improvement. A
notable deviation from the general pattern of decline in concentrations did occur, however,
in some areas of the Los Angeles Basin as indicated by the trend at four coastal sites in
Los Angeles. The California Air Resources Board attributes the high oxidant concentra-
tions recorded during 1973 to extranormal meteorological conditions. They state in their
report, California Air Quality Data, January through March 1973, that under the influ-
ence of extensive warm air and high pressure aloft, two oxidant smog episodes developed
in the south coast air basin in June 1973. In addition, the frequency of adverse conditions
was unusually high for the month as a whole; high pressure aloft occurred on 20 days
as opposed to a long-term mean occurrence for June of 8 days. These conditions contributed
77
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800
700
=L
zT
o
t-
CE
I-
Z
LLI
O
600
500
400
300
NON COASTAL LA. (5 SITES)
COASTAL L.A. (4 SITES)
70
71
72
73
YEAR
Figure 4-4. Composite averages of second high annual 1-hour oxidant
values for various areas within California.
Table 4-6. AVERAGE ANNUAL NUMBER OF VALUES ABOVE 1-HOUR OXIDANT
STANDARDS3 FOR LOS ANGELES AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGIONS
Compos i te
Coastal Los Angeles
Noncoastal Los Angeles
Bay Area
Number of
stations
4
5
6
Year
1970
309
886
110
1971
202
768
77
1972
188
698
80
1973
299
703
49
3 The 1-hour National Ambient Air Quality Standard for oxidants is
160
78
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to the slight increase in number of annual violations of the 1-hour NAAQS that occurred
within the Los Angeles Basin during 1973.
The sites selected from the San Francisco Bay area have shown improvement
in both the second highest annual maximum and in the number of observations exceeding
the NAAQS. The Bay Area Air Pollution Control District states, however, that the down-
4
ward trend in oxidant concentration has leveled off somewhat since 1971. The remaining
sites in California show no particular trend over the 4-year period.
Overall the general pattern seems to be one of modest improvements in peak oxidant
levels and in the frequency with which the NAAQS are exceeded. These improvements
are consistent with scheduled reductions of hydrocarbon emissions (which are known
to cause oxidant formation) as shown in Figure 4-5. These normalized hydrocarbon
emission curves indicate that ambient levels of oxidant precursors have probably decreased
by approximately 10 percent.
4.1.5 Trends in Carbon Monoxide
Carbon monoxide trends are presented for six groupings: the Los Angeles area,
the San Francisco Bay area, the State of New Jersey, the State of New York, the State
of Washington, and the remainder of the U.S. For this pollutant, composite averages
of the second annual maximum 1-hour concentration and the average percentage of
observations exceeding the 8-hour NAAQS for CO are presented for each grouping during
1970-73.
Carbon monoxide concentrations experienced a nationwide decline during 1970-73,
as evidenced by a downward trend in the percentage of annual values above the 8-hour
NAAQS of 10 mg/ir.^. Table 4-7 indicates that most groups of sites examined have made
progress toward meeting the 8-hour standard. The decline in the percentage of values
above the 8-hour standard can be seen in Figure 4-6. This progress is noteworthy
because it is the 8-hour CO standard that is most frequently violated.
With respect to the annual second highest 1-hour average CO concentrations, only
the sites in California, as a group, appear to have made sustained progress in this
parameter. In particular, the Los Angeles sites, which have historically produced some
of the highest 1-hour CO concentrations, have steadily declined in this parameter from
a composite level of 32 mg/m^ in 1970 to 26 mg/m^ in 1973. Nevertheless, 2 of 10 sites
examined in Los Angeles still exceeded the 1-hour NAAQS in 1973. On the other hand,
as indicated in Table 4-7, the various groups of sites outside of California did not show
any apparent change in the annual levels of the second highest annual 1-hour CO concen-
tration. Each area appears to have experienced a moderate increase in peak 1-hour CO
during 1973 that offset the previous decline observed during 1972. This occurred despite
the decrease in the percentage of annual values above the 8-hour standard.
79
-------
o
ffi
u
o
o
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
t
0.1 f-
70
71 72
YEAR
73
SAN FRANCISCO
70
71
72
73
YEAR
Figure 4-5. Normalized hydrocarbon emission curves for the Los Angeles and
San Francisco bay areas, 1970 - 1973. These curves are based on the Federal
Motor Vehicle Control Curve (Federal Register. 3£.(158) August 14, 1971.
p. 15500 - 15502) and appropriate Transportation Control Plans.
The apparent discrepancy between the downward trend in the percentage of
annual values above the 8-hour NAAQS as compared with the lack of sustained change
in the second highest 1-hour concentration is not too surprising . Short-term statistics
such as the 1-hour maximum are notoriously influenced by irregular conditions. Conse-
quently , the high variability of the 1-hour maximum may cause it to be an unreliable
indicator of real change; however, because of its relationship to the NAAQS, its informa-
tion content should not be ignored. The percentage of values above a particular threshold,
80
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£ 12
10
I I I I
WASHINGTON STATE
REMAINING U.S.
70
71
72
73
70
71
72
73
YEAR
YEAR
Figure 4-6. Annual average percent of values above the 8-hour carbon monoxide standard
for selected areas, 1970 - 1973.
such as the 8-hour NAAQS, takes into consideration an entire year of data, averaging
out a variety of conditions and is, therefore, a more stable indicator .
The decreasing trends in the percentage of values above the 8-hour NAAQS seen
in Table 4-7 can be explained in part by the reduction in CO emissions as seen in Figure
4-7, which shows the normalized CO emission curves. As the figure indicates, CO emis-
sions have decreased in each of the specific areas examined, demonstrating, in part,
the success of the Federal Motor Vehicle Emissions Control Program.
81
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Table 4-7. ANNUAL SECOND HIGHEST 1-HOUR AVERAGE CARBON MONOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS AND
PERCENTAGE OF ANNUAL VALUES ABOVE 8-HOUR STANDARD
FOR COMPOSITE GROUPS OF SITES, 1970-1973
Site group
Los Angeles
San Francisco
Bay Area
New Jersey
New York State
Washington State
Remaining U.S.
Number
of
sites
10
7
15
8
7
17
Average second highest annual
1-hour CO concentration, mg/nr
1970
32
15
29
1971
32
16
30
20
21
30
1972
31
16
28
16
20
27
1973
26
14
30
18
23
29
Average percentage
above 8-hour standard
1970
14
a
16
1971
11
a
9
1
5
6
1972
8
a
10
a
4
4
1973
6
a
7
1
3
3
a Less than 0.5 percent.
4.2 TRENDS IN ORGANIC SUSPENDED PARTICULATE
5,6
This section discusses the significant findings of recent studies,'"" which show
that atmospheric levels of man-made organic particulate air pollution are on the decline
in most urban areas. The term organic particulates refers to that portion of total partic-
ulate matter (dust, spray, and mist) that is soluble in benzene. These organics are
called benzene-soluble organics (BSO) and include benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), a potential
carcinogen. BSO can constitute up to 10 percent of particulate matter in certain urban
areas. Major sources of this type of pollution are coal burning in residential furnaces,
wood burning, motor vehicle emissions, and open refuse burning.
In 32 areas where complete data were available, levels of BSO dropped nearly
50 percent between 1960 and 1970, and BaP levels dropped about 30 percent between
1966 and 1970. The 32 urban areas experiencing a decline in one or both of these pollut-
ants included Los Angeles and San Francisco, Seattle, Atlanta, Chicago, Baltimore,
Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Houston.
The reductions in BSO and BaP apparently resulted from a. decrease of approxi-
mately 50 percent in the use of coal by small consumers for heating purposes during
the 1970's. Local open burning restrictions and automobile emission controls instituted
during the same period may also have contributed to the BSO and BaP declines.
The measurement sites were mainly located in central city areas; therefore, they
may not necessarily represent trends in other parts of the same urban area. Because of
differences in site location, in the type of pollution sources located adjacent to the
82
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1.1
1.0
0.9
CALIFORNIA
LOS ANGELES
SAN FRANCISCO —
0.9
NEW YORK-
NEW JERSEY
WASHINGTON STATE —
71
72
73
70
71
72 73
YEAR
70
71
72
73
Figure 4-7. Normalized carbon monoxide emission curves for selected areas, 1970 - 1973.
(These curves are based on the Federal Motor Vehicle Control Curve and appropriate
Transportation Control Plans.)
sampling site, and in other similar variable factors, the measurements from one urban
area cannot be used to compare its pollution levels with those of other cities .
In summary, the decline in BaP and BSO in urban areas appears to be the result
of existing control regulations affecting the burning of coal. Because the decline between
1960 and 1972 has been so dramatic , no national standard for control of these pollutants
is anticipated. The present national strategy is to continue monitoring and to take no
direct control action.
4.2.1 Data Base
The data used in this analysis were obtained through the NASN, which has been
in operation since 1957. The NASN has been administered by a number of Federal agencies
83
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responsible lor monitoring important air pollutants on a nationwide basis. Under NASN,
approximately 250 high-volume samplers are maintained annually in major American
cities and selected rural areas. Each monitoring station in the network obtains 24-hour
samples on a biweekly basis. After collection, the samples are forwarded to a central
laboratory for gravimetric and chemical analyses of the suspended particulates. Since
1964, the organic analysis has been done by compositing individual samples by quarter to
save both time and expense in analysis.
For measurement of the benzene-soluble fraction, the sample is extracted with
redistilled benzene in a Soxhlet extractor for 6 hours. Removal of the solvent leaves the
dissolved organic material as a residue. BaP is determined by separating the extracted
organic material into its different components by thin-layer chromatography and then
removing the BaP from the thin-layer absorbent. The BaP is then dissolved in sulfuric
acid, and its concentration is measured by fluorescence spectroscopy.
The urban NASN sampling sites were chosen to be generally representative of
the downtown business districts in their respective cities. On the other hand, nonurban
sites are generally located in Federal or state parks removed to a great extent from
the direct impact of man. Data from these sites either provide estimates of background
concentrations of the organic particulates released near the sites from man-made or
natural sources, or serve as an indication of long-range transport phenomena from urban
areas. The difference between urban and nonurban concentrations provides a gross
estimate of the effect of the varied urban pollution sources on concentrations of these
organic suspended particulates.
The last year for which routine NASN BSO and BaP data exist is 1970, although 1971
and 1972 data are available for a selected group of 33 NASN sites. BSO was analyzed
beginning in 1960; however, analysis for BaP did not begin on a routine basis until 1966.
Data on other important and possibly hazardous hydrocarbons present in the BSO fraction
are nonexistent.
The data reported herein represent a single sampling site per urban or nonurban
area. As a result, they do not provide an adequate picture of concentrations in other
portions of the metropolitan area. Organic particulate data for multiple-site networks
within a metropolitan area are just now becoming available, and future reports on this
subject can study trends across the entire urbanized area.
Finally, it should be noted that, as with any ambient air quality measurements,
meteorology and other extraneous factors can introduce year-to-year variations in
particulate loadings and, more specifically, in the organic particulates measured on any
given day. Because the data exist as quarterly composited values, these influencing
factors were not examined in detail, but it is believed that such effects were inconsequen-
tial in terms of the conclusions of the study.
84
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4.2.2 Statistical Methodology
Two distinct approaches were used to show the trends in BSO and BaP concentra-
tions. The first method, which is strictly descriptive, was used to show general or
national trends and is based on comparisons of the composite station averages over the
period from I960 to 1970. Unfortunately, the number of stations reporting valid consecu-
tive annual data differed widely during the period. For example, 157 urban sites had
data for BSO in both 1969 and 1970, whereas data were available for only 50 urban sites
in the interval from 1965 to 1970. To eliminate the possibilities of bias, the analysis of BSO
and BaP trends was limited to those stations for which data are available for every year
from 1960 through 1970. Thirty-two urban stations satisfied this criterion for BSO.
However, the BaP analysis for this same set of stations is restricted to the shorter inter-
val of 1966 to 1970 because, as previously mentioned, pre-1966 BaP data do not exist.
Additionally, data from 19 nonurban stations are summarized for BSO and BaP, respec-
tively, over the intervals of 1965 to 1970 and 1966 to 1970 in Figure 4-8. Quarterly com-
posite averages for these same sites are presented to show the effect of the season on
concentrations and trend patterns .
A second form of analysis was employed to expose trends at individual stations.
This was accomplished by utilizing the Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient as the
test statistic. The Spearman coefficient measures the strength of the association between
the annual arithmetic average of BSO and BaP and time. It has the same properties as the
common product-moment correlation coefficient; that is, a positive coefficient indicates
a direct association (an upward trend) , and a negative coefficient indicates an inverse
association (a downward trend) . The closer the coefficient is to +1, the stronger the
association between the pollutant concentration and time and, thus, the stronger the
trend. A two-sided statistical test at the 5 percent level was used to determine the signifi-
cance of the individual station trends. Although it was previously noted that data are
unavailable for some years at some stations, 126 urban and 25 nonurban stations have
sufficient data for the analysis of BSO trends by this technique. The same number of
urban stations and 22 nonurban stations had sufficient data for BaP trends evaluations.
4.2.3. Trends in Benzene-soluble Organic Particulates
4.2.3.1 National Urban and Nonurban Trends
Composite annual averages of BSO concentrations and BSO expressed as a per-
centage of TSP are shown in Figure 4-8 for the 32 urban and 19 nonurban NASN stations.
The urban composite average concentration of BSO has decreased from 10.6 mg/m^ in
1960 to 4.8 mg/rrr in 1970, a decline of 55 percent. The general trend line for urban
BSO closely parallels the trends observed at the vast majority of the stations included
in the composite sample. Statistically downward trends were found for 27 out of the
32 stations represented by this grouping. Only in Helena, Montana, was there some
indication found of an increasing trend pattern. Portland, Oregon, did not exhibit a
85
-------
12
10
oo
o 8
H-
CC
£ 6
LU
O
o 4
o ^
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32 URBAN STATIONS —
(ONLY 18 NONURBAN
STATIONS INCLUDED IN lq NONMRBAN STATIONS
THIS COMPOSITE ' 19 NONURBAN STATIONS
AVERAGE)
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970
o
o>
Q_
GO
in
19 NONURBAN STATIONS
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970
TIME, year
Figure 4-8. Trends in BSD and BSD percent of TSP at 32 urban
and 19 nonurban NASA stations.
clear-cut trend pattern and was described as having "no trend," whereas Providence,
Rhode Island; Seattle, Washington; and Milwaukee, Wisconsin, exhibited weaker de-
creasing trend patterns than was the general case. The overwhelming consistency in
trend patterns points to some general phenomena exclusive of the geographical location
within the country, the size of the city, or the industrial sources present in a particular
city. The nonurban average BSO concentration, which is less than the urban BSO aver-
age by a factor of about 4 or 5, has decreased from 2.2 mg/rrH in 1966 to 1. 2 mg/rrH in
1970.
86
-------
The BSO percentage of TSP has also decreased for the urban stations over the
period considered. The pattern is characterized by rather sudden decreases from 1963
to 1964 (8 to 6 percent) and from 1969 to 1970 (6 to 4.5 percent) . In other years, the BSO
percentage of TSP remained relatively constant. It appears that significant decreases in
national urban levels of both the BSO concentration and the BSO percentage of TSP have
occurred, notwithstanding sizable, short-term, year-to-year fluctuations.
In a statistical approach to this study of national trends in BSO, data from individ-
ual stations were tested for trends using the Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient
described to a limited extent earlier. For all urban stations, the coefficients (rank cor-
relation) of BSO are predominantly negative. Of the 126 stations studied for BSO, 118 had
negative correlations with time. Seventy-five stations of the 118 with negative correlations
had coefficients that were statistically significant at the a =0.05 level. A statistically
significant coefficient implies that it is unlikely that the observed rank correlation coef-
ficients were derived from the population whose true correlation was zero. In the case of
a significant coefficient, the inference is that a significant association exists between BSO
and time, and the conclusion is that the available evidence supports a negative or down-
ward trend in annual average concentrations at these 75 stations. Table 4-8 shows the
distribution of the individual station Spearman Correlation Coefficients by categories of
sign and strength of BSO.
Among the nonurban sites, 15 of the 25 showed downward trends, but only 4
of the declines were statistically significant; the overall nonurban changes were similar
to those found in urban areas.
4.2.3.2 Seasonal Trends
Figure 4-9 depicts the composite quarterly BSO averages for the 32 urban and 19
nonurban stations. The seasonality in urban BSO is pronounced (especially for the first
half of the data record) with the heating months (first and fourth quarters) showing
averages that are 1.5 to 2.0 times the mean of the second and third quarters. The fourth-
quarter average has decreased from 13.5 mg/m3 (I960 heating season) to 7.7 mg/m3
(1970 heating season) , a decrease of approximately 43 percent. The decrease in the heat-
ing season's average BSO concentration closely parallels the overall decrease in the
annual average shown earlier .
The year-to-year variation in the average composites for the second and third
quarters shows three possible distinct downward shifts. These shifts occur at the begin-
ning (1960-61) , in the middle (1963-64) , and at the end (1969-70) of the 11-year period
under consideration. Sizable BSO-to-TSP percentage decreases were also found for
the middle and end drops. At the present time, no explanation can be found for the
stepwise summer BSO pattern for many NASN urban sites across the nation.
The nonurban stations show a less pronounced and more regular seasonal pattern
for BSO than the urban stations. Generally, the averages of the first and fourth quarters
87
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Table 4-8. DISTRIBUTION OF SPEARMAN RANK CORRELATION
COEFFICIENTS OF BENZENE-SOLUBLE ORGANIC MATTER
(1960-1970) VERSUS TIME FOR URBAN AND NONURBAN NASN
SAMPLING SITES
Spearman Rank Correlation
Coefficient categories
-0.81 to -1.0
-0.61 to -0.80
-0.41 to -0.60
-0.21 to -0.40
<0.00 to -0.20
0
>0.00 to +0.20
+0.21 to +0.40
+0.41 to +0.60
+0.61 to +0.80
+0.81 to +1,00
Total
Benzene-soluble organic
suspended parti cul ate
fraction
Urban
s i tes
56 (55)a
39 (20)
13
8
2
1
3
1
2
2
0
126 (75)
Nonurban
sites
2 (2)
2 (2)
2
5
4
1
3
2
2
0
25 (4)
a Numbers in parentheses refer to the number of stations
per category having Spearman Correlation Coefficients
significantly different from zero at the «=0.05 level
of significance.
are the highest. The 1970 composite quarterly averages appear atypical, having generally
lower concentrations and less variability than prior years. Overall it can be stated
that BSO levels are declining in each of the four seasons for which composite monitoring
values have been obtained .
4.2.4 Trends in Benzo(a)pyrene
4.2.4.1 National Urban and Nonurban Trends
Benzo(a)pyrene, like the BSO fraction, shows a similar decrease in the composite
average of the 32 urban stations over the period from 1966 to 1970, as shown in Figure
4-10. The average BaP concentration decreased from 3.1 nanograms/m^ (iig/m^) in 1966
to 2.1 ng/m^ in 1970, a decrease of approximately 30 percent. The trends in BaP concen-
trations over the time period show 17 out of 32 sites with a decreasing trend pattern; the
remainder do not exhibit any trend one way or the other. Statistical significance of
the BaP trends could not be determined because of the limited number of years of data
available. Sites having little winter heating demand generally showed a pattern of
no trend, as did some sites with a heavy heating demand such as those in Minneapolis and
-------
15
14
13
12
"I 11
Cuj
* 10
COMPOSITE AVERAGE
URBAN STATIONS
COMPOSITE AVERAGE
NONURBAN STATIONS
S 7
§ 6
o
"»
OQ 5
4
3
2
1
12341234123412341234123412341234123412341234
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970
TIME, year and quarter
Figure 4-9. Composite quarterly averages for BSO at 32 urban and 19 nonurban NASN stations.
Chicago. In summary, the nonurban average has declined slightly during the 5-year
period from 1966 to 1970.
The rank correlations for BaP, like those for BSO, are mostly negative (Table 4-9).
Of the 126 stations studied for BaP over the 5-year period (1966-70), 105 stations had nega-
tive coefficients of annual average BaP versus time. These negative correlations resulted
primarily from the fact that 1970 was the low year in terms of BaP for a vast majority
of the stations studied. An explanation for the drop in 1970 is not known. Significance
levels were not computed for BaP because there were not enough years of data for this
test to be meaningful. Again, the majority of the nonurban sites are found to have nega-
tive trend correlations (13 out of 22) for BaP.
4.2.4.2 S easonal Trends
Concentrations of BaP also exhibit a seasonality as shown in Figure 4-11. Average
BaP concentrations for the heating season exceed those of the nonheating season by a
factor of approximately 2 or 3.
4.2.5 Analysis of BSO and BaP Data for 1971 and 1972
Chemical analysis of the NASN samples for BSO and BaP was last done on a network
basis for 1970. Recently, new analyses have been performed on a selected group of 33
NASN stations for the years 1971 and 1972, thereby making it possible to examine these
89
-------
E
00
CO
32 URBAN STATIONS
(ONLY 3 QUARTERS OF
1966 DATA AVAILABLE
AT MOST STATIONS)
19 NONURBAN STATIONS
i
1966
1967 1968
TIME, year
1969
1970
Figure 4-10. Composite annual average of BaP concentrations for
32 urban and 19 nonurban NASN stations.
Table 4-9. DISTRIBUTION OF SPEARMAN RANK CORRELATION
COEFFICIENTS OF BENZO(a)PYRENE (1967-1970) VERSUS
TIME FOR URBAN AND NONURBAN NASN SAMPLING SITES
Spearman Rank Correlation
Coefficient categories
-0.81 to -1.0
-0.61 to -0.80
-0.41 to -0.60
-0.21 to -0.40
<0.00 to -0.20
0
<0.00 to +0.20
+0.21 to +0.40
+0.41 to +0.60
+0.61 to +0.80
+0.81 to +1.00
Total
Benzo(a)pyrene
Urban
sites
39
15
24
13
12
2
0
5
12
2
2
126
Nonurban
sites
1
3
3
2
4
2
0
4
1
1
1
22
data for trends through 1972. For the most part these new data are from cities where
significant industrial sources of particulate hydrocarbons are present. The results
confirm the trend that was found through 1970; that is, both BaP and BSO appear to have
90
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continued their decline through at least 1972.
A comparison of the frequency distribution of annual averages over the period 1967
to 1972 is shown in Figure 4-12. This summary represents a different sample of stations
for each year because all stations did not have data for every year considered in this
analysis. The distributions of BSO, and especially of BaP , show a shift over the period
to higher frequencies at lower average concentration. The BSO median of the annual
averages at the stations represented for each year decreased from 6.3 mg/m3 in 1967 to
4.0 mg/m3 m 1972, whereas the BaP median dropped from 3.0 ng/m^ to 0. 9 ng/m^ over
this same period.
4.2.6. Trends Comparison with National Coal Consumption
The results of this analysis thus far have shown a pronounced decrease in the
benzene-soluble organic fraction over the period 1960 to 1970 at numerous NASN stations.
At most of the stations studied (118 out of 126) , the available data indicated a decreasing
pattern of BSO with time. Seventy-five of the 118 stations with negative correlations
had coefficients thai were statistically significant. These stations could be said to possess
a downward trend.
It is difficult to assign specific causes to the BSO and BaP trends because of the
wide variety of sources producing these airborne particulates. Also, because of the pas-
sage of time, it is impossible to reconstruct local source-sampler configurations that could
have affected these patterns. Nevertheless, some general remarks concerning probable
o
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o
o
CO
COMPOSITE AVERAGE
URBAN STATIONS
COMPOSITE AVERAGE
NONURBAN STATIONS
12341234123412341234
1966 1967 1968 1969 1970
TIME, year and quarter
Figure 4-11. Composite quarterly averages for BaP at 32
urban and 19 nonurban NASN stations.
91
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changes in air pollution sources that affect the downtown or business areas may be
helpful.
Q
Table 4-10 shows a breakdown of 1968 nationwide emissions of BaP, which is a
gross indicator of emissions of other polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Emission esti-
mates by source category are not available for the total benzene-soluble organics because
of the countless individual organic compounds present in this fraction. However, because
the aromatics comprise a major portion of the total fraction, it can be assumed that the
major sources given for BaP also apply to the BSO fraction. The largest single source of
BaP is attributed to the rather inefficient combustion of coal in residential furnaces.
This characterization is strongly contrasted with coal used in steam-electric utilities,
wherein total BaP emissions represent less than 0.1 percent of the total. The other major
sources of BaP in urban areas are: wood burning, 40 tons/year; enclosed incineration,
33 tons/year; vehicular exhaust, 32 tons/year; and, in certain areas, industrial processes,
200 tons/year, depending upon the type of industry and its proximity to the main urban
area. Coal refuse fires (340 tons/year) and forest and agricultural burning (140 tons/
year) are major sources, but their contribution to urban concentrations of BaP would be
Table 4-10. ESTIMATED BENZO(a)PYRENE EMISSIONS IN UNITED STATES, 1968
Source category
Heat and power generation
Coal
Residential furnaces
Intermediate units (commercial)
Steam power plants
Oil
Gas
Wood
Refuse burning
Enclosed incineration
Open burning
Coal refuse fires
Forest and agricultural burning
Other (vehicle disposal and domestic,
commercial, and industrial burning)
Industrial processes
Vehicular traffic
Total
Emissions, tons/year
420
10
1
2
2
40
33
340
140
74
-200
32
-1300
94
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relatively minor because of their remoteness from an urban area. Thus, the major sources
of BaP emissions likely to be present in all urban areas that have a major impact on con-
centrations of BaP and BSO monitored at the center-city-oriented NASN stations are those
from residential coal combustion, enclosed incineration, urban open burning, and vehicu-
lar travel.
Figure 4-13 shows the annual national consumption of bituminous and lignite coal
for the Bureau of Mines category "Retail Delivered to Other Consumers"^ (assumed to be
primarily small consumers such as homes, apartments, and office buildings) versus the
14
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COAL DELIVERED FOR RETAIL SALE
(LEFT SCALE)
BSO (RIGHT SCALE)
COAL CONSUMED IN ELECTRIC
UTILITIES (TIMES 10)
(LEFT SCALE)
N^, _
\
BaP (RIGHT SCALE)
12
10
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E JE
oo oa
O O
8 P P
o o
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60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70
TIME, year
Figure 4-13. Trends in national coal consumption, BSO, and BaP annual averages.
-------
urban composite annual average BSO and BaP concentrations. Eliminating the 4 or 5
stations from the group of 32 for which the use of coal for residential and commercial
heating is nonexistent or minimal did not greatly affect the composite average. These
overall patterns for coal consumption and composite average BSO concentrations are ver}
similar, each of which in 1970 is approximately half the 1960 value. Also shown on this
graph is the trend in coal consumption for steam electric power plants . Even though the
use of coal in electric utilities has about doubled from I960 to 1970, its effect upon center-
city concentrations of BaP and BSO is generally minor. The two factors that account
for this are: (1) the combustion process in power plants is more efficient, resulting in
lower emissions of hydrocarbons, and (2) the larger electric generating plants are
usually located outside the main urban area. The reduction in the usage of residential
coal appears to be the single greatest factor leading to the downward trends seen for
these two pollutants.
Another factor that has likely contributed to this downward trend has been the
enforcement of regulations to control smoke emissions in most large metropolitan areas.
In addition, there has been a trend toward the elimination of open burning and utilization
of more efficient combustion technology for solid-waste disposal.
4.3 REFERENCES FOR SECTION 4
1. The National Air Monitoring Program: Air Quality and Emissions Trends Annual
Report. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, N.C.
Publication No. EPA-450/l-73-001a. 1973.
2. Monitoring and Air Quality Trends Report, 1972. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Research Triangle Park, N.C. Publication No. EPA-450/1-73-004.
December 1973.
3. California Air Quality Data, January through March 1973. Vol. V, No. 1. California
Air Resources Board. Sacramento, California. 1973.
4. Information Bulletin, A Study of Oxidant Concentration Trends (1962-1972). Bay
Area Air Pollution Control District, San Francisco, California. January 16, 1973.
5. Faoro, R. Trends in Concentrations of Benzene-Soluble Suspended Particulate
Fraction and Benzo(a)pyrene Determined by Data from the National Air Surveil-
lance Network. (Presented at the 67th Annual Meeting of the Air Pollution Control
Association, Denver, Colorado, 1974.)
6. Special Report Trends in Concentration of Benzene Soluble Suspended Particulate
Fraction and Benzo(a)pyrene, 1960-1972. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ,
Research Triangle Park, N.C. Internal Report, Office of Air Quality Planning
and Standards, Monitoring and Data Analysis Division. 1974.
7. Falk, H. L. , P. Kotin, and E. Mehler. Polycyclic Hydrocarbons as Carcinogens
in Man. Arch. Environ. Health. 8: 721-730, 1964.
8. Committee on Biologic Effects of Atmospheric Pollutants. Particulate Polycyclic
Organic Matter. National Academy of Sciences . Washington, D.C. 1972.
9. Minerals Yearbook Minerals Fuels , 1962-70. U.S. Department of the Interior .
Washington, D.C. 1971.
96
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5. SPECIAL TOPICS
This section examines special topics relating to air quality trends. Subsections
5.1 and 5.2 examine the impact of the "energy crisis" on sulfur dioxide and carbon
monoxide levels, respectively, while Subsection 5.3 examines the phenomenon of high
nonurban ozone concentrations. Each of the subsections examines studies conducted
in one or more locations . The first subsection discusses the short-term impact of the fuel
shortage on sulfur dioxide levels in New York City and northern New Jersey during the
1973-74 winter season. The second subsection examines the impact of the gasoline shortage
on carbon monoxide levels in Richmond, Virginia; Portland, Oregon; New York City,
New York; and Mamaroneck, New York. The last subsection presents the results of
studies of high nonurban ozone levels in rural Maryland, West Virginia, California,
New York, and Wisconsin, as well as on-going and planned future studies.
5.1 IMPACT OF ENERGY CRISIS ON SULFUR DIOXIDE
This section presents the results of an investigation of the possible short-term
impact of the energy crisis on sulfur dioxide levels in New York City and northern New
Jersey during the 1973-74 winter season. The study examined the possible relationship
between the use of higher sulfur bearing fuels and observable sulfur dioxide concentra-
tions. The New York-New Jersey Metropolitan Area was selected because of the existence
of an extensive sulfur dioxide monitoring network with a good data history. Meteorology
was examined in addition to the ambient air quality measurements and emissions data.
In summary, although the 1973-74 winter was found to have meteorological conditions
more conducive to higher overall SC^ concentrations, an increase in SC>2 over the pre-
vious winter could still be seen after accounting for meteorology. This increase is pre-
dominately due to the usage of poorer quality fuel brought about by the shortage of
clean fuels during the energy crisis. A discussion of this analysis follows.
5.1.1 Sulfur Dioxide Emissions
An estimate of the sulfur dioxide emissions for the area was derived from extrap-
olating published emissions data on the basis of actual fuel use and sulfur content
data. Such data were obtained from the New York City Department of Air Resources!
and the New Jersey Bureau of Air Pollution Control.
5.1.1.1 Sulfur Content of Fuels
Because of the limitations imposed on the availability of low-sulfur fuel oils during
the past winter, EPA granted both New York and New Jersey variances to their State
Implementation Plans for the New York-New Jersey Air Quality Control Region. Based
on this variance, New Jersey enacted a statewide variance permitting up to 1,5 percent
97
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sulfur fuel oil and New York up to 3 percent sulfur on an individual basis. The New
Jersey statewide variance allowed the use of 1 percent sulfur, without specific application
for permission. Above 1 percent sulfur, each individual case would be considered
separately. For coal, New York allowed Con Edison to burn up to 1.5 percent sulfur
and up to 15 percent ash at the Arthur Kill (No. 30) power plant. But, because of techni-
cal problems, the use of coal was confined to only several days at the end of March
1974. New Jersey allowed the Bergen and Sewaren Power Plants of New Jersey Public
Service to utilize coal effective December 1973. Table 5-1 presents a review of the schedule
of changes in the sulfur content of fuels since 1967 in the area under study. It should be
noted that, although variances were granted for the use of higher sulfur bearing fuel oils,
the actual consumption of such oils exclusively in both home heating and power plant
sources was not accomplished instantaneously. This is based on the observation (in
New York City) that it takes approximately 4 to 8 weeks for a new shipment of fuel oil to
go through its normal distribution and consumption cycle, depending on the time of
year. The shorter period corresponds to the heaviest part of the heating season, that is,
January and February.
5.1.1.2 Estimated Sulfur Dioxide Emissions
The expected increase in sulfur dioxide emissions , in both the space heating and
power plant source categories for the area, was derived on the basis of actual and pro-
jected fuel use information as well as fuel quality regulations. For New York, it is esti-
mated that annual power plant emissions will increase by 25 percent over the last fiscal
year, while space heating emissions will remain essentially constant. This is due to a
variance granted by New York City during early 1973 that was primarily for space heating
sources. Some 2 x 10° barrels of No. 6 oil of approximately 1.1 to 1,2 percent sulfur
were allowed. In the five New Jersey Counties (Hudson, Middlesex, Berger, Union,
Essex) adjacent to New York City (especially Staten Island) , the winter season emissions
were expected to increase by approximately 20 percent for utilities and by 100 percent
for space heating sources. Table 5-2 presents the estimated SO2 emissions by source
category in the New York portion and total SC>2 emissions in the New Jersey portion
of the study area. The estimated emissions for fiscal year 1973-74 are projections based on
estimated fuel use, sulfur variances, and actual percentage ot sulfur in the fuel being
consumed.
5.1.2 Ambient Sulfur Dioxide Levels
As indicated above, the New York-New Jersey Metropolitan Area was selected
based on the existence of good data histories at numerous monitoring sites (Figure 5-1)
and because of the past responsiveness to regulatory changes.
Ambient sulfur dioxide data for the period January 1965 through February 1974
comprised the air quality data base. New Jersey sulfur dioxide measurements were
obtained by instrumental West-Gaeke. New York City uses an instrumental electrocon-
ductivity method at their laboratory site and 1-hour sequential bubblers utilizing
98
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Table 5-1. SCHEDULE OF CHANGES IN THE SULFUR CONTENT OF FUELS
IN THE NEW YORK-NEW JERSEY METROPOLITAN AREA
Effective date
Year
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1973
Month
January
November
November
April
May
May
May
May
May
October
October
October
October
August
October
October
October
October
October
October
October
October
October
October
October
November
November
November
November
November
November
November
November
Source category
Power
plants
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Space
heating
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
xi
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Fuel type
Coal
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
No. 6
oil
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
No. 4
oil
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
No. 2
oil
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Maximum permissible percent sulfur by weight
New York
New York City
only
2.2
2.0
0.5
0.2
0.39
0.3"
0.55
0.3
NYC, Westchester,
Suffolk, Rockland,
Nassau
No control
1.7a,b
1.0c-b
1.0<:.b
l.Cb
3. Of
0.37b
0.24b
0.2
0.3
1.5
3.0J
New Jersey
all nine
counties
No control
0.3
0.7
l-°d e
1.0a, 0.7e
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.3
1.5
V 1
°-5r
1.0*'
°-3k
1.0*
1.0*
0.5k
Voluntary restriction.
Excludes Suffolk County
Voluntary restriction, scheduled for law October 1969.
Biturn nous coal.
Anthracite coal.
Suffolk County only.
^Actual sulfur content of fuel in use, 0.37 percent.
Variance permits up to 0.7 percent.
Excludes one- and two-family homes burning anthracite coal.
Case-by-case basis up to maximum of 3 percent.
Case-by-case tasis above 1 percent.
Counties of 3ergen, Essex, Hudson, Union, and Middlesex.
hydrogen peroxide at their other stations.1* Because of the irregularities in New York
City's sampling schedules for their sequential bubblers, which cause incompleteness
of data records at various locations, several of the monitoring sites were excluded from
analysis.
99
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HACKENSACK
ELIZABETH
'BAYONNE^
GOETHALSBR. f 32)BOROUGH HALL
34) SEAVIEWHSP.
3?) EGBERT H.S.
VPERTH AMBOY
//QG^TOTTENVILLE H.S.
NEW YORK CITY SITES
NEW JERSEY SITES
L
Figure 5-1. Monitoring site locations, New York-New Jersey Metropolitan Area study.
5.1.2.1 Long-term Trends
Monthly average time series representations of the long-term history of. SC>2 levels
at two of the study area's monitoring stations are presented in Figure 5-2. The systematic
seasonal fluctuations, as well as significant reductions in levels, at these sites are typi-
cal of those found at others in the area. These reductions generally correspond to the
stepwise reductions in sulfur dioxide emissions that were achieved by limiting fuel
sulfur content since 1967. Table 5-2 illustrates the impact of these fuel quality restrictions
on the study area's emissions.
101
-------
1000
800
600
400
200
a. LABORATORY SITE (00), NEW YORK
65
66
67
68
69
YEAR
70
71
72
73
74
UJ
o
o
o
b. BAYONNE SITE, NEW JERSEY
200
100
69 70
YEAR
Figure 5-2. Trends in sulfur dioxide concentrations at selected monitoring sites in
the study area, 1965-74.
5.1.2.2 Recent Trends
As shown in Figure 5-2, SC>2 levels since 1971 appear to be relatively stable com-
pared to the overall historical pattern. Recent yearly trends for the same two sites
(Laboratory and Bayonne) , which are typical for the area, are presented in Figure 5-3.
These trends clearly display the recurrent seasonality component of the overall annual
pattern. In general, the highest SC>2 concentrations are measured during the period
November through February. Table 5-3 summarizes SC>2 levels at each of the study's
monitoring sites for this period over the last three winter seasons .
102
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In general, an increase in average SO-, levels occurred at a majority >f the mon-
itoring sites over the last two winter seasons. However, on a site-by-site >asit>, the
overall change in the area was mixed, as follows: Based on incomplete data records,
four of the New York sites (3, 8, 13, 18) , thought to be dominated by area sources, indi-
cate a decrease in levels. The other two sites (10, 11) under similar influence show
essentially no change. Increases were observed at four of the six Staten Island monitoring
sites (32, 34, 35, 36) and at the Laboratory Stations (00). The other two sites in Staten
Island exhibited no change. Increases in levels occurred at all of the New Jersey sites
except for Elizabeth.
The spatial distribution of SC>2 levels over the past two winter seasons is presented
in Figures 5-4 and 5-5. As shown in Figure 5-6, areas previously experiencing the
highest average concentrations showed slight decreases, but increases did occur over
Figure 5-4. Spatial distribution of sulfur dioxide concentrations (/ttg- m3) m study area, winter
season, 1972-73. Bold numbers indicate concentration <"~ 'ours others, m'1 vidnal si'" va'ues.
-------
Figure 5-5 Spatial distribution of sulfur dioxide concentrations
in study area, winter season, 1973-1974 Bold numbers indicate
concentration contours, others, individual site values.
various other portions of the area. Most of the increases occurred in Staten Island and
nearby locations in New Jersey. The decreases occurred, for the most part, in Northern
Queens and lower Manhattan.
5.1.3. Effect of Meteorological Factors
The 1973-74 winter was both milder and less windy than past winter seasons over
the last decade. Typically, one would expect that a milder winter would result in a lower
space heating demand and therefore less SC^ emissions, whereas lower wind speeds
\vould result in higher SC>2 concentrations because of limited dispersion. These variables
were examined in depth to ascertain their possible effect and significance with respect to
observed levels.
106
-------
±0
Figure 5-6 Percent change in average concentration winter season 1972-73 compared with winter
season 1973-74 Bold numbers indicate change contours, others, individual site values. Changes
over 20 percent are indicated by shading. Underlined values represent incomplete set of months in
averages calculated.
5.1.3.1 Correlation Analyses
Relationships were developed between daily average SO2 levels at selected study
area sites and daily average wind speed and temperature for the past three winter seasons.
(Meteorological measurements from La Guardia Airport were used in the analyses of air
quality at both New York City and New Jersey sites.) Table 5-4 presents the correlation
results between SO? concentrations and the meteorological variables.
LJ
Sulfur Dioxide/Wind Speed Relationships - The highest average SO2 concentrations tended
to occur with lower daily average wind speeds, and, conversely, the lowest SO concentra-
tions occurred with high daily average wind speed, as expected.
107
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Table 5-4. CORRELATION OF WINTER-SEASON DAILY SULFUR DIOXIDE
WITH WIND SPEED AND TEMPERATURE
AT NEW YORK-NEW JERSEY MONITORING SITES
Site
New Jersey
Bayonne
Elizabeth
Hackensack
Jersey City
Newark
Perth Amboy
New York
Laboratory
Morrisania
Tallman Island
Mabel Dean Bacon H.S.
Greenpoint
Brooklyn Pub. Lib.
Samuel Gompers
Goethals Bridge
Borough Hall
Fresh" Kills
Seaview Hospital
Egbert H.S.
Tottenville H.S.
Bowery Bay
Dept. of Health
Number
of daily
observations
305
326
312
317
321
311
359
109
96
128
126
119
99
116
116
117
106
109
108
87
97
Correlation of S0? with
Wind
speed
-0.49*
-0.51a
-0.42a
-0.33a
-0.52a
-0.32a
-0.473
-0.493
-0.20
-0.273
-0.27a
-0.43a
-0.30a
-0.20a
-0.39a
-0.08
-0.313
-0.18,
-0.30a
-0.17a
-0.22
Temperature
0.05
-0.07
-0.05
-0.05
-0.02
-0.11
0.06
0.27a
0.24a
0.11
0.11
0.06
0.14
0.12_
0.30a
0.03
0.01
-0.07
-0.18
-0.17
0.04
aStatistically significant at the 5 percent level.
There was also considerable scatter in the data with both high and low daily con-
centrations of SO? observed on days with light average wind speed. For some stations,
the highest concentrations occurred not in the lowest wind-speed range (0 to 7 knots) ,
but rather in the 8- to 10-knot range, as illustrated in Figure 5-7a. The reason for this
deviation is that the stations affected by particular point sources are most affected at
some critical wind speed at which the combination of plume rise and dispersion rate
produce maximum concentrations. One other deviation concerned wind speed having
no further effect on SO,, concentrations above 16 knots (average daily wind speed) .
Concentrations with strong wind are well diluted so that the lower threshold of concen-
tration measurement is reached over much of the 24-hour period - thus the lack of
continuity of the relationship at higher wind speeds.
Sulfur Dioxide/Temperature Relationship - There does not appear to be a general
linear relationship between SO and temperature. At some stations, there is an increase
in sulfur dioxide levels with increasing temperature. Three sites showed significant
correlations for such a relationship (Table 5-4) . This is opposite to what would be
108
-------
o
o
40-50°
a. WIND SPEED
b. TEMPERATURE
Figure 5-7. General correlation patterns for sulfur dioxide
levels with wind speed and temperature.
expected to occur considering emissions alone, which increase with decreasing temper-
atures due to space heating demands. The meteorological explanation as to why concentra-
tions do not uniformly follow the trend in space heating emissions is that at lower temper-
atures the wind speeds are usually above average, and lower temperatures are often
associated with the introduction of new air masses . (It should be noted that although
lower SO,, concentrations generally occurred at the lowest temperatures, some exceptions
in this pattern did occur. At some sites, some of the highest concentrations were recorded
at the lower temperatures, particularly during the last winter season.) The above describ-
ed positive relationship between SO and temperature found at a few stations would not
be expected to maintain itself at much higher temperatures than normally occur in winter,
because of diminished space heating emissions and much greater vertical mixing . In
fact, at most stations, the highest concentrations for various temperature ranges show
a definite pattern, increasing with temperature until a peak is reached in the upper
40's, as shown in Figure 5-7b. Then high concentrations decreased with higher temper-
atures, as expected with decreased space heating emissions. Although the highest SO
L,
concentrations generally occurred at more moderate temperatures, there was also con-
siderable scatter of data, such that lower concentrations also occurred at those temper-
atures.
5.1.3.2 Trends Adjusted for Meteorology
Because of the somewhat higher temperature and generally lower wind speeds for
last winter, these meteorological variables may have contributed to the increase in SO,,
&
levels. To account for this possible impact, daily SO2 concentrations were categorized
according to intervals of daily wind speed and temperature. Average SO concentrations
LJ
for each category were then compared over the past three winter seasons.
109
-------
A clear separation of average SO levels between the past two winter seasons
was observed at only a few sites across most of the range of the meteorological variables.
Figure 5-8 presents the results of this analysis for two sites, the New York City Labora-
tory site and the Bayonne, New Jersey, site. Both of 1 ese sites, as well as five other
sites, displayed an increase in SO levels with respect to comparable meteorology. Each
of these had previously been identified as increasing in overall average SO-. One site
Li
shows a decrease with respect to comparable meteorology. This site is among those that
previously had been identified as displaying little or no change. Table 5-5 presents the
summary of this analysis .
5.1.4 Interpretation
Preliminary results indicate that significant changes in winter air quality levels
have occurred. Most sites in New Jersey and most sites in New York City primarily
influenced by large combustion sources have demonstrated an increase in average SO
L*
concentrations. Monitoring sites in New York City that are mostly influenced by area
source emissions of space heating have declined or at least not changed in average SO_
levels.
Increases in total SO,, emissions from power plants as well as increases in area
Ct
source emissions corresponded to the observed increases in air quality levels of affected
sites. It is suggested that the decreases in SO levels at other locations can be attributed
to fuel conservation.
The effect of meteorology on the observed SO_ levels was considered. The 1973-74
winter season was found to be milder than the 1972-73 winter season, i.e. , the 1973-74
season was characterized by lower wind speeds and slightly higher temperatures.
With few exceptions , the highest SO,, concentrations occur on days with milder temper-
atures or lighter wind speeds. Although the 1973-74 winter may have been more conduc-
ive to higher overall SO,, concentration due to existing meteorological conditions, an
increase in SO_ over the previous winter could be clearly discerned even after accounting
Li
for meteorology. This process of exclusion clearly implicates fuel quality.
5.2 IMPACT OF GASOLINE SHORTAGE ON CARBON MONOXIDE
Four cities were examined to determine the impact of the gasoline shortage on
CO levels. The cities examined were Portland, Oregon; New York City, New York;
Mamaroneck, New York; and Richmond, Virginia. The Richmond and Portland analyses
were conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the New York City analy-
sis by the New York City Environmental Protection Administration, and the Mamaroneck
analysis by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. As a result,
there are differences in the way the data were analysed in each of the cities. In summary,
CO was found to decrease in Portland, New York City, and Richmond and to increase
in Mamaroneck. In Mamaroneck, the increase could be attributed in part to idling vehicles
in gasoline lines on the road in front of the monitor, while the decrease in Richmond
could be attributed in part to meteorology. A discussion of these analyses follows.
110
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UJ
£ 5
o
o
a. LABORATORY SITE, NEW YORK
• WINTER 1972-73
A WINTER 1973-74
10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 > 50
DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE,°F
8-10 11-13 14-16 > 17
DAILY AVERAGE WIND SPEED, knots
b. BAYONNE SITE, NEW JERSEY
Figure 5-8. Comparison of 1972-73 winter sulfur dioxide levels with 1973- 74 winter levels at
selected monitoring sites in the New York-New Jersey area, adjusted for daily average wind
speed and temperature.
Ill
-------
Table 5-5. SUMMARY ASSESSMENT OF METEOROLOGICAL IMPACT ON SULFUR DIOXIDE
CONCENTRATIONS AT NEW YORK-NEW JERSEY MONITORING SITES
Site
New Jersey
Bayonne
Elizabeth
'Hackensack
Jersey City
Newark
Perth Amboy
New York City
Laboratory
Morrisania
Tallman Island
Mabel Dean Bacon H.S.
Greenpoint
Brooklyn Pub. Lib.
Samuel Gompers
Goethals Bridge
Borough Hall
Fresh Kills
Seaview Hospital
Egbert H.S.
Tottenville H.S.
Bowery Bay
Dept. of Health
Winter mean SO-
concentration, ug/m^
1972-73
65
57
53
69
81
83
100
136
89
160
105
102
109
43
62
56
62
52
66
141
100
1973-74
80
50
50
89
85
103
118
113
73
146
109
93
125
48
104
61
92
80
101
68
51
Percent change
K
+ 23D
- 12
- 6
+ 29
+ 5
+ 24
+ 18b
' 17h
' 18£
- 9b
+ 4b
- 9b
+ 15b
+ 12
+ 67
+ 9b
+ 48°
+ 54
+ 53
- 51°
- 49
Observed change
accounting for
meteorology
Up
No change
No change
Up
No change
Up
Up
--
--
Down
No change
No change
--
No change
Up
No change
--
UP
--
--
--
Dashes indicate not considered due to insufficient air quality data.
Based on incomplete air quality data.
5.2.1 Portland, Oregon
Monthly summary carbon monoxide statistics, along with information on traffic
count, gasoline sales, and public transportation, were obtained for a site in downtown
Portland. The monthly air quality statistics are the maximum and second maximum 1-hour
values, maximum and second maximum 8-hour values, and the arithmetic mean of 8-hour
values. The data are given in Table 5-6. All of these statistics showed a decrease when
the winter of 1973-74 (November through February) was compared to the two previous
winters (1971-72 and 1972-73).
The arithmetic means of the 8-hour values dropped an average of 10 percent from
1972-73 through 1973-74 winter seasons. During the 1973-74 winter season, the average
8-hour means dropped over 20 percent from November 1973 (11 ppm) to February 1974
(8.5ppm).
The second highest 8-hour maximum had even more substantial decreases. The
values dropped nearly 25 percent from 1972-73 to the corresponding period in 1973-74.
112
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Table 5-6. SUMMARY OF CARBON MONOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS (ppm) FOR THE DOWNTOWN
PORTLAND, OREGON, SITE (1460 002 F01) FOR WINTER SEASONS, 1971-74
Month
and
year
Nov. 1971
Dec. 1971
Jan. 1972
Feb. 1972
Nov. 1972
Dec. 1972
Jan. 1973
Feb. 1973
Nov. 1973
Dec. 1973
Jan. 1974
Feb. 1974
Maximum
1-hour
value
48.3
39.1
29.9
33.3
36.8
36.8
34.5
25.4
36.8
39.1
21.9
23.0
Second
highest
1-hour value
41.4
39.1
28.8
32.2
34.5
36.8
32.2
24.2
28.7
38.0
19.6
23.0
Maximum
8-hour
value
22.1
19.0
17.2
17.8
21.8
28.9
25.6
18.5
21.8
22.4
13.3
13.9
Second
highest
8-hour value
21.8
18.5
15.1
16.5
21.1
22.0
20.7
17.1
15.5
20.2
12.7
13.6
Arithmetic
mean of 8-
hour values
12.3
11.5
9.3
10.2
12.6
10.6
10.7
9.5
11.0
11.8
8.0
8.5
From November 1973 through February 1974, the decrease was approximately 12 percent
in the second maximum 8-hour levels. A study of the average daily traffic entering
downtown Portland showed decreases of approximately 10 percent over the November
1973 through February 1974 period. It was estimated that average monthly gasoline sales
were down nearly 20 percent while the daily public transit passenger loads increased
approximately 20 percent over the same time interval. These data can be seen in Table
5-7, where January through June 1973 is used as the base period.
It should be noted that the possible influences due to meteorological differences
between the two periods may account ior some of the difference . Another factor is that
Table 5-7. TRAFFIC COUNT, GASOLINE SALES,
AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION FOR PORTLAND, OREGON, DURING THE 1973-74 WINTER9
Month and year
Nov. 1973
Dec. 1973
Jan. 1974
Feb. 1974
Average daily
traffic
of four
freeway locations, %
98
97
86
91
Average daily
traffic entering
Portland.%
97
90
87
90
Average monthly
gas sales
statewide, %
98
86
80b
80b
Average daily
transit v
passengers ,%
109
112
129
132
The base period, January through June 1973, equals 100 percent.
Estimated.
113
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CO emissions have decreased between the two time periods because of the impact of the
Federal Motor Vehicle Emission Control Program. Automotive emission reductions should
account for no more than 3 to 5 percent of the total, however.
5.2.2 New York City
The Department of Air Resources of the New York City Environmental Protection
Administration examined CO measurements for three sites, comparing the 1972-73 winter
season (December, January, and February) with the 1973-74 winter season. The sites
were located in Manhattan on Canal Street, 45th Street, and the 59th Street Bridge. The
data from the Department of Air Resources are given in Table 5-8. They are recorded
as the average of all daily 24-hour periods and all 7 a.m. to 3 p .m. periods from December
through February. In addition, the data are summarized in the same way for Sundays
only.
As can be seen in Table 5-8, the Canal Street and 59th Street Bridge sites were
from 10 to 20 percent lower during December, January, and February of 1973-74 than
during the same months of 1972-73. When the Sunday CO concentrations are examined
separately, the reduction is as high as 30 percent. This is occurring at a time when
leisure driving normally peaks .
Table 5-8. COMPARISON OF AVERAGE CARBON MONOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS (ppm)
AT THREE NEW YORK CITY SITES, 1972-73 AND 1973-74 WINTER SEASONS3»b
All days
1972/73
1973/74
Percent
improved
Sundays only
1972/73
1973/74
Percent
improved
Canal Street
24-hr
8.8
7.0
20
8.5
5.9
31
7 a.m. -
3 p.m.
10.5
8.8
16
8.0
6.2
22
59th Street Bridge
24-hr
17.3
15.5
10
15.6
13.0
17
7 a.m. -
3 p.m.
21.4
18.2
15
15.9
13.7
14
45th Street
24-hr
11.2
11.3
-1
6.8
6.3
7
7 a.m. -
3 p.m.
13.3
13.7
-3
6.3
6.9
-10
These data were obtained from the New York City Department of Air
Resources.
Winter is defined as the months of December, January, and February.
114
-------
The site located on 45th Street, however, showed no improvement during this
time period. The Department of Air Resources suggests that this lack of improvement
is due to the strong influence of taxis and postal vehicles , while the other two sites
reflect commuter traffic and private vehicles .
5.2.3 Mamaroneck, New York
In contrast to the two previous studies, the Mamaroneck study shows quite the
opposite effect. The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation reported
that CO violations of the 8-hour National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) were
five times greater during the 1973-74 winter (December 1 through March 14) than in the
1972-73 winter (December 1 through March 31) at their Mamaroneck site (83 compared
with 16 violations) . They attribute this to the idling of automobiles in daily gas lines
along the road in front of the air monitor .
5.2. 4 Richmond, Virginia
A final example is given to illustrate the problem of interpreting ambient data.
Carbon monoxide data from Richmond, Virginia, were analyzed to evaluate the effect,
if any, of the energy crisis upon the levels of this automobile-related pollutant. Although
the CO levels showed a decline for the first 2 months of 1974, this may be partially
explained by the increasing wind speeds during this period.
The monitoring site is located in the downtown area of Richmond at the corner
of Main and Belvedere. The site is situated so that it is representative of the influence
of commuting traffic patterns.
The period of time chosen for the analysis was the last 4 weeks (28 days) of
January and the 4 weeks of February. It was felt that this time period would reflect the
most severe period of the recent gasoline shortage while at the same time minimize the
potential anomalies in traffic patterns associated with the Thanskgiving , Christmas,
and New Years holidays. Table 5-9 displays the data from this time period in terms of
weekly averages. It should be noted that these CO levels are relatively low for an urban
area site. The wind speed data were recorded at the R. E. Byrd International Airport
and serve as an approximate indicator of the wind speed at the site . The data are present-
ed in terms of weekly averages to compensate for the differences in daily traffic patterns.
The CO data in Table 5~9 show a downward trend during this 8-week period; , »•
however, the average wind speed shows an increase during this period. This may be
seen more clearly in Figure 5-9, which shows a graph of both hourly average CO and
'wind speed. The decline in CO levels during this period may therefore be due to this
increase in average wind speeds, which is indicative of greater dilution.
115
-------
Table 5-9. WEEKLY AVERAGE CARBON MONOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS (ppm)
AND WIND SPEEDS (mph) IN RICHMOND, VIRGINIA,
JANUARY 4 TO FEBRUARY 28, 1974
Week
1/4-1/10
1/11-1/17
1/18-1/24
1/26-1/31
2/1-2/7
2/8-2/14
2/15-2/21
2/22-2/28
Hourly
average
2.92
1.94
3.07
2.88
2.28
2.31
2.08
1.73
Daily
8-hr max.
4.45
3.13
4.79
4.56
3.54
3.76
3.09
2.81
6 to 9 a.m.
and
4 to 7 p.m.
average
4.50
3.18
4.52
4.20
3.56
3.40
3.00
2.82
Average
daily
wind speed
5.90
7.87
6.63
6.21
7.24
8.06
9.13
9.67
z:
o
CC
o:
o
O
3.0
2.0
1.0
WIND SPEED
I I
1 2 3
JANUARY 1974
6 7
FEBRUARY 1974
WEEK
30
20
10
Figure 5-9. Weekly average carbon monoxide and wind speed in Richmond,
Virginia, from January 4 to February 28, 1974.
116
-------
The interdependence was seen in the statistical analysis of the data. If this change
in wind speed was ignored, then four parameters - (1) daily average, (2) maximum
8-hour average, (3) rush-hour average, and (4) nonrush-hour average - all show
statistically significant decreases, although this decrease was less apparent in the rush-
hour averages. These findings are based on analysis of variance, a statistical procedure.
However, when wind speed is introduced into the analysis as a covariate, using analysis
of covariance, then none of the changes in the above parameters are significant . There-
fore, although the data at this site indicate a decline in CO levels during this period, the
associated increase in wind speeds makes the cause of these declines difficult to assess.
This failure to detect significant trends after adjusting for wind speed is not entire-
ly unexpected. The variability associated with CO measurements and the relatively brief
duration of the gasoline shortage make it quite possible that the effect would go unnoticed
unless the monitoring site itself was in precisely the right location to detect changes due
to alterations in traffic patterns .
5.3 HIGH NONURBAN OZONE CONCENTRATIONS
Much attention is currently being focused on an unanticipated recent development
brought about by increased monitoring for ozone, particularly in nonurban areas. Ozone
concentrations exceeding the air quality standard in areas distant from possible pre-
cursor sources have alerted EPA and other air pollution control agencies to a potential
gap in present oxidant control strategies. The probable major cause of the excessive
ozone levels has been hypothesized to be long-range transport of ozone and/or its pre-
cursors. Present evidence is insufficient to implicate natural sources as major contrib-
utors to high ozone levels; however, additional research is needed for verification. In
the context used here, high ozone levels indicate ozone concentrations above the ambient air
standard of 160 /ag/m (0.08 ppm) , 1-hour maximum. EPA and others are conducting
comprehensive field and laboratory investigations of the causes and possible implications
regarding present oxidant control policies mainly consisting of local transportation
controls in cities . Present indications are that transportation control plans for individual
cities provide an effective means to aid in reduction of ozone on a local basis. A compli-
cating factor, however, involves possible interurban contamination through long-range
transport. The thrust of the present investigations is to gather the data necessary to
form a basis for possible modifications of present oxidant control strategies. The modified
strategies might include supplementary control measures on a regional or national scale to
alleviate the high ozone levels in nonurban areas and those contributed by interurban
transport.
Until recent years, surface ozone concentrations were considered to result from
photochemical reactions of locally emitted "reactive" hydrocarbons and oxides of nitrogen
117
-------
and to be of concern only in large urban areas. Destructive mechanisms and dilution
with nonurban air during transport were thought to reduce the concentrations in nonurban
areas to insignificant levels. However, studies conducted in Maryland-West Virginia,
California, Florida, New York, and Wisconsin have indicated high ozone levels in non-
urban areas. A discussion of these studies follows.
5.3.1 Rural Maryland-West Virginia Studies
Previous to 1970, surface measurements of ozone in nonurban areas were scant
and had not indicated the existence of particularly high concentrations. In the course
of a study of injury to Christmas trees conducted by the EPA in 1970, investigators un-
expectedly found oxidant concentrations in a rural area of Western Maryland and Eastern
West Virginia that rather frequently exceeded the NAAQS during the sampling period
of May 29 to September 28. Corroborative measurements made with a chemiluminescence
ozone analyzer at one of four monitoring sites showed that virtually all of the oxidant
at that location was ozone. Follow-up measurements in the same area during the summer
of 1972 atMcHenry, Maryland, performed by the Research Triangle Institute (RTI) under
contract to EPA, again revealed similar high levels with the chemiluminescence monitor.
In the summer of 1973, sampling was conducted by RTI at four widely separated nonurban
sites in the eastern United States to determine just how widespread the high levels of
o
ozone were. The four sites were located at McHenry, Maryland; Kane, Pennsylvania;
Coshocton, Ohio; and Lewisburg, West Virginia (Figure 5-10). The 1973 measurements
verified the occurrence of widespread high ozone levels over a large region of the eastern
United States, as shown by the percent frequency of various concentrations of ozone
shown along with those for nitrogen dioxide and nonmethane hydrocarbon in Table 5-10.
The frequencies with which the NAAQS for ozone were exceeded were 37, 30, 20, and
15 percent, respectively. Comparison of the average hourly distribution at McHenry for
the 1972 and 1973 sampling periods is shown in Figure 5-11. The increase in 1973 over
1972 is attributed to a greater frequency of stagnant conditions conducive to higher
pollutant concentrations in 1973 rather than to a large increase in precursor emissions
over that region. Nitrogen dioxide levels measured during both periods were near back-
ground levels.
During the course of the eastern U.S. study conducted in 1973 by RTI, measurements
of ozone were also taken by aircraft over the study area. The measurements over a period
9
of a few days in August revealed that ozone levels similar to those observed by surface
monitors extended over portions of the region to elevations up to about 10,000 feet above
mean sea level.
118
-------
'i *•—_.". / Charleston ,
- J ^' ® A '
SCALE
7 t
(km X 100)
Station No.
Town
Me Henry
Kane
Coshocton
Lew/sburg
County
Garrett
McKean
Coshocton
Grtenbrler
Figure 5-10. Ozone and ozone precursor monitoring stations.
(Shaded areas indicate the identified counties).
119
-------
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1 \ I I I
JUNE 26 - SEPTEMBER 30,1973
AUGUST 4 - SEPTEMBER 25,1972
I I I
I I
0200 0400 0600
0800 1000 1200 1400
TIME OF DAY (EOT)
1600
1800
2000
2200 0000
Figure 5-11. Mean diurnal ozone concentration at McHenry
(Garrett County, Maryland, Airport) for June 26 to
September 30, 1973, and August 4 to September 25, 1972.
5.3.2 California Studies
Recent ozone measurements have also indicated high nonurban ozone in California.
Ozonesonde measurements have shown the existence of ozone-rich layers within elevated
but low-level inversion layers. The high ozone concentrations observed atPt. Magu,
California, can be attributed to precursors originating in the Los Angeles area. Trans-
port of photochemical smog from Fresno to upper-surface elevations in the Mineral King
Valley of California has also been suggested.
11
High ozone concentrations have recently been measured at Indio, California, 140
miles from Los Angeles. The station exceeded the NAAQS for ozone more frequently than
any other in California. The high concentrations occur during day and night hours. The
121
-------
evidence indicates that transport to Indio from the Los Angeles Basin is a contributing
factor to the observed concentrations.
California recently reported finding levels just above the NAAQS for ozone in
other remote mountain regions of the state and at coastal sites when the wind was blowing
onshore. These data from California do not appear consistent with a hypothesis of urban
drift, but only further study of three-dimensional atmospheric patterns could possibly
indicate the probable source of the ozone in these situations.
5.3.3 Florida Studies
Episodes of ozone concentrations exceeding the NAAQS have occurred in a nonurban
14
setting near Miami, Florida. An analysis showed that long-range transport of ozone or
ozone precursors may have been responsible. A subsequent study of ozone was made
during the period from January to June 1973 covering several locations in Florida and
a part of Alabama. It was found during this study that excesses of the NAAQS occurred
throughout the area. Peak hourly values measured are shown in Table 5-11; urban and
suburban sites, as well as nonurban sites, are listed. The table shows that rural peaks
do not differ much from those observed over more populated areas. Significantly, most
values that exceeded the NAAQS occurred during winter and early spring , characteristi-
cally after the passage of continental air mass fronts. This suggests long-range transport
from distant source areas of ozone or ozone precursors. Detailed meteorological trajectory
analyses are being performed to verify the upwind track of these air masses.
Table 5-11. PEAK HOURLY CONCENTRATIONS OF OZONE, FLORIDA STUDIES,
JANUARY TO JUNE 1973
Type of
area
Nonurban
Suburban
Urban
Site
Training and Transition Airport
(Everglades)
Ft. Lauderdale
Naples (Rookery Bay)
American Telephone and Telegraph
(Miami)
Virginia Key
Tampa (Boy Scout Headquarters)
Miami Reserve Center
West Palm Beach
Tampa (Davis Island)
Peak hourly
concentration ,
ppm
0.14
0.14
0.12
0.14
0.15
0.18
0.16
0.15
0.18
Date
measured
May 7
June 26
May 12
May 11
May 19
June 25
May 21
April 5
June 25
122
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5.3.4 New York and Wisconsin Studies
Very recently, reports of ozone data measurements by the New York and Wisconsin
State Air Pollution Control Agencies have documented additional evidence of high ozone
levels in rural environments. The New York State study compares rural measurements
at two sites with urban measurements at four sites during 17 days in August 1973 . It
concludes that peak ozone levels at widely separated sites were of similar magnitude
regardless of regime, suggesting a. common source for the greater portion of the ozone
observed in New York State. The Wisconsin study conducted during the summer of
1973 showed ozone exceeding the NAAQS at seven study sites , including a rural site in
South Central Wisconsin. Wind-rose analysis indicated transport during periods of
southerly wind flow and a decrease in concentrations of ozone below NAAQS following
passage of cold fronts.
5.3.5 On-going and Future Studies
A vigorous effort is being made during the summer of 1974 by EPA components,
contractors, and state and local agencies to gather additional data necessary to form some
definitive conclusions on the cause of the recently observed high levels of ozone. These
efforts are briefly described in the following paragraphs.
A follow-up phase to the measurement program in the eastern United States , con-
ducted by RTI in 1973, involving meteorological and trajectory analyses, is in progress.
The contractor will attempt to relate meteorological events and variables such as fronts,
temperature, relative humidity, and solar intensity to the high ozone concentrations
observed and will construct trajectories of the history of the air parcels associated with
high ozone.
An extensive field study is being conducted during the period June 15 to September
30, 1974, covering a large area east of the Mississippi. The study involves several groups
within EPA, EPA contractors, and state and local agencies. The purpose of the project
is to comprehensively investigate high rural ozone concentrations and their possible
relationship to urban hydrocarbons. Both surface and aircraft measurements of discrete
hydrocarbon compounds, nitrogen oxides, ozone, and an inert tracer will be made and
carefully analyzed. The study design will utilize a sampling track along a southwest-
northeast line from Cincinnati, Ohio, to east of Pittsburgh , Pennsylvania. A report
is expected near the end of 1974.
The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources intends to make a further concen-
trated study of high rural ozone levels in that state between May and September 1974
using an expanded rural network of stations supplemented by aircraft measurements. The
study will be coordinated with that over the eastern United States to complement the findings
of this study and that mentioned in subsection 5.3.4.
A further analysis of three-dimensional (aircraft) soundings made by Meteorology
Research Incorporated in 1972 and 1973 in Los Angeles and Denver and their surroundings
123
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is being made to assess the extent of long-range transport contributing to high ozone
levels in nonurban areas surrounding those cities. The data were originally collected
for urban studies in Los Angeles for the California state agency and in Denver for a
research group within EPA. The further analysis will be specifically directed to analysis
of the long-range transport aspect.
The Chemistry and Physics Laboratory of EPA, through a research grant with
Washington State University, is in the process of obtaining airborne samples of,
primarily, hydrocarbon compounds and ozone upwind, within, and downwind of
several U.S. cities, among them Phoenix, Arizona; Houston, Texas; and Canton,
. Ohio. Some limited ground samples are also being obtained. The sampling in and
around Canton is also part of the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh study described earlier.
The above coverage of nonurban ozone studies in progress is not exhaustive.
Undoubtedly, other agencies and groups are also studying or conducting sampling to
document and resolve the issue of the cause of high nonurban ozone. The listing is meant
to indicate the level and types of some of the principal efforts that are being expended.
Ultimately, a compilation of the findings will be made by EPA toward the end of 1974 to
reevaluate the existing policy of local, urban control of hydrocarbon emissions to control
oxidant (ozone) in excess of the NAAQS .
5.4 REFERENCES FOR SECTION 5
1. Simon , C . and E . F . Ferrand. The Impact of Low Sulfur Fuels on Air Quality in New
York City. New York City Department of Air Resources. (Presented at Second Inter-
national Clean Air Congress of the International Union of Air Pollution Prevention
Association. December 1970.)
2. Estimates of Fuel Consumption and Related Sulfur Dioxide Emissions, November 1973
to March 1973. State of New Jersey, Department of Environmental Protection, Division
of Environmental Quality, Bureau of Air Pollution Control. November 1973.
3. National Primary and Secondary Air Quality Standards; Reference Method for the
Determination of Sulfur Dioxide in the Atmosphere (Pararosamlme Method) . Federal
Register. 36(84) : 8187-8190 , April 30, 1971.
4. Air Quality Criteria for Sulfur Oxides. National Air Pollution Control Administration,
Public Health Service , U.S. Department of Health , Education, and Welfare . Durham ,
N.C. NAPCA Publication No. AP-50. January 1969.
5. Mt. Storm, West Virginia-Gorman, Maryland-Key ser, West Virginia, Air Pollution
Abatement Activity. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park,
N.C. Publication No. APTD-0656. April 1971.
6. Richter, H.G. Special Ozone and Oxidant Measurements in Vicinity of Mt. Storm,
West Virginia. Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, N.C. October
1970.
7. Johnston, D. Investigation of High Ozone Concentration in Vicinity of Garret County,
Maryland and Preston County, West Virginia, Final Report. Research Triangle Insti-
tute, Research Triangle Park, N.C. EPA Contract No. 68-02-0624. January 1973.
124
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8. Johnston, D. et al. Investigation of Ozone and Ozone Precursor Concentrations at
Nonurban Locations in Eastern United States, Phase I, Final Report. Research
Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, N.C. EPA Contract No. 68-02-1077.
May 1974.
9. Ripperton, L.A. etal. Airborne Ozone Measurement Study. Research Triangle Insti-
tute, Research Triangle Park, N.C. (Presented at 67th Annual Meeting of Air Pollu-
tion Control Association. Denver, Colorado. June 9-13, 1974.)
10. Lea, D.A. Vertical Ozone Distribution in the Lower Troposphere Near an Urban
Pollution Center. J. Appl. Meteorol. 7^:252-267, 1968.
11. Miller, P.R. etal. Oxidant Air Pollution in the Central Valley, Sierra Nevada
Foothills, and Mineral King Valley of California. Atmos. Environ. 6:623-633, 1972.
12. Maga, J.A. , California Air Resources Board. Personal Communication to L.A.
Ripperton, Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, N.C.,1974.
13. Written Communication from California Air Resources Board to White House,
March 1974. Reply prepared by Environmental Protection Agency (Mr. R.
Strelow) , June 1974.
14. Baljet, P.J. Local Air Pollution Episode. Metropolitan Dade County Pollution Con-
trol. Miami, Fla. June 1972.
15. Nagler, L. , EPA Region IV. Personal Communication to E.L. Martinez, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency , Research Triangle Park , N.C.,May 1974.
16. Stasiuk, W.N. and E. Coffey. Rural and Urban Ozone Relationships in New York
State. J. Air Pollut. Cont. Assoc. 2_4(6):June 1974.
17. A Report to the Board DNR Concerning High Oxidant Levels in Wisconsin,
Summer 1973. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. February 1974.
125
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6. APPENDICES: SUMMARY OF DATA FROM AIR QUALITY
MONITORING STATIONS BY AQCR, 1973
Tables A-l to E-l present selected quantitative information for individual monitor-
ing stations within each Air Quality Control Region, complementing the summary
tables in the main part of the report. These listings of maximum and second highest
values, number of values exceeding a standard, and annual means afford more
definitive appraisals of AQCR status with respect to standards.
These summaries of 1973 air quality measurements for individual monitoring
stations include only data collected by Federal reference methods or pending candi-
date methods (Table 6-1). While pending, these candidate methods are designated
"unapproved." Other methods, some of which have previously been included in En-
vironmental Protection Agency summary reports, have been found deficient in preci-
sion, accuracy, and/or reliability and are designated "unacceptable" (Table 6-1).
Data collected by the "unacceptable" methods will no longer be reported, and their
data bank records will be removed to an inactive file. For details on the approval
and disapproval of methods, see Environmental Protection Agency Publication No.
EPA-450/4-74-005.1
In those tables where more than one method is being reported for a pollutant,
the code for the appropriate pollutant/method is shown for each station in the right-
most column. Sulfur dioxide is divided into two tables because of differing column
formats: the 24-hour bubbler data in one, the continuous instrument data in the
other, including a column for the 3-hour standard.
Reference methods are identified in the preface to each appendix table, except
for nitrogen dioxide. As of this writing, a reference method has not been selected
from among the candidate NO,, methods.
tj
Data collected by different agencies are identified in the last three characters
(the agency/project code) in each station identification code. The letter A identifies
a station as Federally supported (although often operated by local personnel) . An
F identifies a state agency station, G a county agency, H a city agency, I a district
agency, etc. The final pair of digits in the code distinguishes among urban or pop-
ulation oriented stations (-01), source oriented stations (-02), nonurban or rural
background stations (-03), CAMP stations (-10), etc.
Only stations reporting at least one quarter's valid data for 1973 to the data bank
as of the first week in June 1974 are included in these tables. Annual means are dis-
played only for those stations with four valid quarters on record. Oxidant/ozone is
127
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Table 6-1. APPROVED, CANDIDATE (UNAPPROVED), AND UNACCEPTABLE
POLLUTANT MEASUREMENT METHODS, 1972-73
Pollutant
TSP
CO
S02
N02
Photochemical
oxidant/
ozone
Code
11101 91
42101 11
12
21
42401 11
13
14
15
16
31
33
91
92
93
42602 11
12
13
14
71
72
84
91
94
95
96
44101 11
13
14
15
51
81
82
44201 11
13
Method
Hi-vola
NDIRa
Coulometric
Flame ionization
Col ori metric
Conductimetric
Coulometric
Autometerb
Flame photometric
Hydrogen peroxideb
Sequential conductimetric
West-Gaeke sulfamic
acid3
West-Gaeke bubbler
Conductimetric bubbler
Colorimetric
Colorimetric
Coulometric
Chemi luminescence
J-H bubtiler (orifice)
Saltzman
Sodium arsenite (orifice)
J-H bubbler (frit)
Sodium arsenite (frit)
TEA
TGS
Alkaline KI instrumental
Coulometricc
Neut KI colorimetric
Coulometri c
Phenolphthalin
Alkaline KI bubbler
Ferrous oxidation
Chemi luminescence3
Coulometric0
Approved
X
X
X
X
Un-
approved
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
x
X
X
X
X
X
Unaccept-
able
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Federal reference method.
These methods should be reported under method code 42401 13.
cThese methods should be reported under method code 44101 15.
128
-------
the exception to this practice; annual means are deemed of negligible pertinence for
this pollutant, and are not printed for any station.
Data validity for 24-hour integrating samplers (e.g., hi-vols, bubblers) depend
upon a minimal distribution of at least five values among the months of each quarter.
Distributions of measurements that show no samples in 2 months of a quarter or
that show no samples in 1 month and only one sample in a another month are judged
unacceptable for providing a representative estimate of that quarter's pollutant level.
Since all four quarters must be valid for calculation of a representative or valid
annual mean, there must be a minimum of 20 measurements per year from a 24-hour
integrating sampler method. Because such samples are nearly always collected on a
carefully defined schedule, meteorological and day-of-the-week biases tend to average
out over a year's time.
For continuous instruments, at least 75 percent of the possible hourly values
must be present for the year to support the calculation of valid annual summaries.
Validity requirements are imposed to provide a basic statistical reliability for
assessments of data with respect to National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Where
annual summary statistics are included with a station's summary, the data can be
considered representative for comparison with both annual and short-term standards.
If the data are too fragmentary to support annual statistics, but at least one quarter's
record is valid, the station is included and pertinent statistics given where short-
term standards apply. If a station with an incomplete annual record reports values
exceeding a short-term standard, that information is useful. If such a partial data
record includes no values exceeding a short-term standard, that result must be con-
sidered inconclusive,
In addition to the representative amount of data required from an individual
station, similarly, a minimum number of stations is needed to provide a representative
picture of the spatial variation in diverse sectors of an Air Quality Control Region.
The recommended minimum number of stations for each pollutant in each AQCR is
included as part of Table 3-1. If fewer than the minimum required number of stations
are reporting a full year's data for a given pollutant, that AQCR's status with respect
to the corresponding standards must be considered inconclusive, even though the
reported values are below those standards.
Asterisks or blanks in the data columns indicate either values not justified fi-om
the available data (annual means) or values suspected of being flagrantly erroneous
and pending verification.
129
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6.1 REFERENCES FOR SECTION 6
1. Designation of Unacceptable Analytical Methods of Measurement for Criteria
Pollutants. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency .Research Triangle Park,
N.C. Publication No. EPA-450/4-74-005. September 1974.
2. Storage and Retrieval of Aerometric Data; Parameter Coding Manual. U.S. Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Programs. Research Triangle Park,
N.C. Publication No. APTD-0633. July 1971.
130
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A. SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER
At present, there is only one generally accepted method for the measurement of
suspended particulate matter (the reference method), i.e., the gravimetric determi-
nation of the net weight of material collected on a 20- by 25-centimeter (8- by 10-inch)
glass fiber filter through which approximately 2200 cubic meters of air have been
drawn over a 24-hour period. The high volume air sampler used to collect such
samples is familiarly known as a hi-vol.
In Table A-l, the hi-vol stations are listed by AQCR. Stations in interstate AQCR's
are sorted according to their respective states. Following the AQCR name, in the
middle of the page, is the AQCR's priority classification.
The body of the table contains a line for each reporting station, starting with
the state name, site code, station name, and year - 1973. The next three columns
show the number of valid values reported, and the number of those values exceeding
the secondary (150 ng/m ) and primary (260 pg/m ) 24-hour standards. The next
two columns list the first and second highest values, in micrograms per cubic meter.
From these values, one can judge either the degree to which the 24-hour standard
has been exceeded or the margin by which it has been met.
The final three columns pertain to the annual geometric mean, showing its ratio
to the secondary (60 y.g/m ) and primary (75 jug/m ) annual standards and the
annual geometric mean itself.
Stations appearing in this listing, but showing no entries in the last three
columns, have reported valid data for at least one quarter of 1973, but do not meet
the yearly criterion of four valid quarters.
A-i
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EPA-450/1 -74-007
MONITORING AND AIR QUALITY TRENDS REPORT, 1973
ADDENDUM AND ERRATA
DECEMBER 1974
ADDENDUM
This report is intended to portray recent nationwide air quality
trends and air quality status for the year 1973 for air pollutants
for which National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) have been
established. The data used in preparation of this report are the
latest available monitoring information reported by the states or
collected by EPA and summarized in the National Air Data Bank (NADB).
It must be pointed out that the majority of these data were collected
in heavily industrialized or populated portions of the country and
as such do not reflect the full impact of major point sources such
as coal-fired utility plants that are located in nonurban areas.
It is estimated that over 97 percent of the monitoring sites were
established to monitor urban pollution levels and only very recent-
ly have the states' monitoring resources and monitoring priorities
been directed to monitoring the effects of large, more isolated
pollutant sources.
There are several additional factors that must be considered
when using this report to interpret the air quality status of any
particular geographical area. First, as explained in the report,
the states' monitoring networks are not yet fully established and,
thus, do not always represent the full geographical coverage required
in assessing air quality. As a consequence, violations of the
air quality standards may be presently undetected in some regions.
For example, on a nationwide basis, the states' implementation p-lans
propose a^total of 698 continuous sulfur dioxide monitors and 1434
bubblers. As of June 1974, (the cutoff date to prepare summaries
for publication), 350 of the proposed continuous instruments (50
percent) and 1104 of the proposed bubblers (77 percent) were report-
ing at least fragmentary data to the NADB.t There were 59 AQCR's
reporting either no data or insufficient data (less than a valid
quarter for any station) to support even the most tentative appraisal
of the 24-hour standard.
Monitoring and Air Quality Trends Report, 1973. Table 3-6, p. 65.
'More stations have been reported to the NADB (422 continuous,
1506 bubblers) but these represent extended networks in certain
AQCR's.
-------
Second, the data presented for 1973 are not necessarily complete
because of the time-consuming nature of collecting, coding, computer-
izing, and authenticating such an enormous diversity of monitoring
data. The states have generally been very cooperative with EPA in
submitting these data, but problems in data handling and processing
have caused some delays. EPA believes that the states are making
adequate progress in establishing the required air quality monitoring
networks. These networks are expected to be fully completed by
early next year. EPA is also providing assistance to the states to
reduce any delays that occur in submitting the required data.
Despite these limitations, EPA takes the position that air
quality information should be made publically available as soon as
practicable. EPA believes that to postpone publication of these
data on the basis that more complete air quality evaluations are
possible at some later date is unjustified. Periodically, EPA
will reevaluate and publish summaries of air quality statistics as
new information becomes available.
ERRATA
The last two lines of values for sulfur dioxide in Table 3-2, page 8,
were incorrectly reported. The correct values for sulfur dioxide are
as follows:
Pollutant and AQCR status
Sulfur dioxide
AQCR's in each priority class
Reporting >_ 1 valid station-year
Exceeding annual primary standard
Reporting >_ 1 valid station-quarter
Reporting only valid quarters
Exceeding the 24-hour primary standard
Exceeding the 3-hour secondary standard
Exceeding either primary standard
Reporting insufficient data to compare
with standards
Number of AQCR's
Priority3
I
60
33
8
55
22
12
7
16
5
II
41
24
2
35
11
4
1
5
6
III
146
43
0
97
54
1
0
1
48
Total
247 '
100
10
187
87
17
8
22
59
aPriority classification based on severity of individual pollu-
tant concentration in AQCR.
-------
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B. SULFUR DIOXIDE
Data from 24-hour bubbler monitors, the reference method, are summarized in
Table B-l; data from continuous SO? monitors are summarized in Table B-2, the
format of which differs by the addition of a column for the 3-hour standard, and a
column identifying the instrument method used at each station. All of the continuous
instrument methods are candidate methods with approval pending. Since many agen-
cies employ both types of equipment, both tables must be consulted in assessing
details of an AQCR's SO status.
On the line with each AQCR code and name is its priority classification. In each
table the stations are listed by AQCR. Stations in interstate AQCR's are grouped accord-
ing to their respective states. In the body of each table, each line represents a station,
beginning with its state, station code, station name, and year - 1973. The next column,
number of valid values, represents 24-hour samples in Table B-l, hourly measurements
in Table B-2. The next column reports the number of values (or 24-hour averages, mid-
night to midnight, for continuous instruments) exceeding the 24-hour standard
(365 ju-g/m ) . Both the first and second highest 24-hour values are reported for bubbler
measurements (Table B-l); only the highest 24-hour average is reported for continuous
instruments (Table B-2) .
The remaining two columns of Table B-l present the ratio of the annual arithmetic
mean to the annual standard (80 Mg/m ) and the annual arithmetic mean itself, if four
valid quarters have been reported.
Table B-2 contains an additional column reporting the number of times the running
3- hour average of the hourly SO» measurements exceeded the 3-hour standard (1300
3
/ig/m ) , followed by the ratio of the annual arithmetic mean to the annual standard
(80 jug/m ) and the annual arithmetic mean. The final column identifies the code for the
instrument method used at each station. These codes are elaborated in the table heading.
Stations appearing in these tables, but showing no entries in the annual summary
columns, have reported valid data for at least one quarter but do not meet the yearly
validity criterion for four valid quarters.
B-i
-------
-------
Table B-1 . SULFUR DIOXIDE DATA
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ALASKA 02 02600Oi FOI KETCHIKAN 7J i6 63 47 «
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