EPA-450/3-74-056-a
    JULY 1973
HACKENSACK MEADOWLANDS
      AIR POLLUTION STUDY -
             SUMMARY REPORT
    U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
       Office of Air and Waste Management
    Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
    Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711

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                                     EPA-450/3-74-056-a
HACKENSACK  MEADOWLANDS
   AIR  POLLUTION  STUDY  -
        SUMMARY REPORT
                     by

                Byron H. Willis

      Environmental Research and Technology, Inc.
                429 Marrett Road
           Lexington, Massachusetts 02173


             Contract No. EHSD 71-39


          EPA Project Officer: John Robson


                 Prepared for

        ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
          Office of Air and Waste Management
       Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
         Research Triangle Park , N. C.  27711

                  July 1973

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This report is issued by the Environmental Protection Agency to report technical
data of interest to a limited number of readers.  Copies are available free
of charge to Federal employees,  current contractors and grantees, and nonprofit
organizations-as supplies permit-from the Air Pollution Technical Information
Center, Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North
Carolina 27711; or, for a fee, from the National Technical Information Service,
5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia  22161.
This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency by the
Environmental Research and Technology, Inc. , in fulfillment of Contract
No.  EHSD 71-39. The contents of this report are reproduced herein as received
from the Environmental Research and Technology, Inc. The opinions, findings,
and conclusions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those
of the Environmental Protection Agency.  Mention of company or product
names is not to be considered as an endorsement by the Environmental Protection
Agency.
                       Publication No. EPA-450/3-74-056-a
                                   11

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                                 PREFACE









     The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study final report consists of



a summary report, five task reports and three appendices, each bound separate-




ly.   This report is the summary report.  Its purpose is to present  an over-




view of the procedures developed for considering air pollution in the urban




and transportation planning process, and to describe the results of applying




these procedures to the evaluation and ranking of the four alternative land




use plans for the New Jersey Hackensack Meadowlands.
                                   111

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                             ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS






     The work upon which this report  is  based  was  performed  pursuant  to




contract No.  bHSD-71-59 with the  bnvironmental Protection  Agency,  and




Contract No.  1P-290 with the New  Jersey  Department of Environmental




Protection.




     The cooperation and assistance of the many personnel  from EPA and




NJDEP contributed greatly to the success of this study.  The special  assist-




ance of Mr.  Roland S. Yunghans and Dr. Edward  B. Feinberg, Environmental




Scientists,  Office of the Commissioner,  NJDEP, and Mr. John  Robson,  Land Use




Planning Branch, Office of Air Programs, EPA,  is appreciated.
                                    IV

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                           TABLE OF CONTENTS

                                                                   PAGE NOS.

PREFACE   	   iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  	   iv

TABLE OF CONTENTS	   v

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS   	   vii

LIST OF TABLES    	   viii


1.   Introduction    	   1

     1.1  Background to the Study	   1
     1.2  Objectives and Scope of the Study	   5
     1.3  Structure of the Final Report 	   7

2.   General Methodology for Considering Air Pollution in the
     Planning Process   	   11

     2.1  The AQUIP System	   11
     2.2  Basic Air Quality Analysis Considerations  	   14
     2.3  Methodologies for Plan Evaluation and Ranking	   16

3.   Procedures for Projecting Emissions   	   19

     3.1  Basic Features of the Procedures  	   19
     3.2  General Description of the Procedures 	   19
     3.3  Illustration of the Estimation Procedures  	   22
     3.4  Computational Techniques   	   27
     3.5  Conclusions	   29

4.   Methodology for Projecting Air Quality    	   31

     4.1  General Description of the Air Quality Projection Model  .   31
     4.2  Basis of the Model:   The Gaussian Plume Equation	   33
     4.3  Data Used in the Modeling Studies	   36
     4.4  Model Validation Procedures  	   40

5.   Operational Features  of the AQUIP System Software   	   45

     5.1  Overview of the  AQUIP System Software 	   45
     5.2  Planning Inputs	   47
     5.3  Air Quality Prediction Model  	   49
     5.4  Air Quality Impact Model	   50

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                            TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont.)

                                                                     Page Nos,
6.   Evaluation and Ranking of the Hackensack Meadowlands Land
     Use Plans	   55

     6.1  General Air Quality Criteria for Plan Evaluation  	   55

     6.2  Summary of Land Use Plan Characteristics	   58

     6.3  Results of the Air Quality Analysis	   66

7.   Planning Guidelines  	   71

     7.1  Introduction	   71
     7.2  Effect of Background Sources on Air Quality	   72
     7.3  Effect of Plan Design Factors on Air Quality	   74
     7.4  Effects of Topography and Meteorology on Air Quality  ...   78
     7.5  Limitations of Regional Air Quality Considerations  ....   83

8.   Conclusion and Recommendations  	   85

     8.1  Review of Major Accomplishments 	   85
     8.2  General Applicability of the Results	   88
     8.3  Recommendations	   90


REFERENCES	   99

GLOSSARY  	101

PRINCIPAL STUDY PARTICIPANTS
                                    VI

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                        LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS

                                                                 Page Nos.



        Location of the Hackensack Meadowlands District 	    4

        The AQUIP System Conceptual Design  	    12

        Coordinate System Showing Gaussian Distributions in the
        Horizontal and Vertical 	    35

4       Illustration of the Four Geographical Zones used in the
        Development of the Emission Inventory 	    39

5       AQUIP Software System - Summary of Programs, Data Sets,
        and Information Flow	    46

6       Example of SYMAP Computer-Generated Air Quality Contour .    51

7       Alternative Meadowlands Land Use Plan No.  1 -- The Master Plan  59

8       Alternative Meadowlands Land Use Plan No.  1A -- Self  . .    60
        Supporting New Town

9       Alternative Meadowlands Land Use Plan No.  IB -- Expansion
        of New York City Urban Core	    61

10      Alternative Meadowlands Land Use Plan No.  1C -- Trend
        Development Based on Current Zoning 	    62
                                    VII

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                              LIST OF TABLES


Table

  1    Equivalent Annual Average Air Quality Standards 	   57

  2    Summary of Land Use Information for Hackensack	63
       Meadowlands Plans

  3    Summary of Estimated 1990 Annual Emission Rates
       per Acre for Hackensack Meadowlands Land Use
       Categories	   75

  4    Principal Effects of Topography Upon Air Quality
       Patterns	80
                                   Vlll

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                             I.  INTRODUCTION








1.1  Background to the Study






     In response to the recognized hazards to human health, damage to




vegetation and property, and degradation of the general quality of life,




there is nearly universal concern for the problems of air pollution and its



abatement.  Currently, extensive efforts are being devoted to programs of air




pollution control by federal, state, and local agencies to achieve ambient




air quality standards through the direct regulation of source emissions.




While such control  measures are necessary to cope with the magnitude of cur-




rent air pollution problems, there is a growing concern that these measures




may not be appropriate to achieve long-term solutions.




      Rather, it is now widely suggested that air pollution, as well as




other environmental concerns, be addressed in terms of more fundamental




sources of the problem, such as population growth, energy consumption,




utilization of land and natural resources, and management of waste




products.   In particular there is wide recognition of the need to



incorporate the consideration of air pollution within the planning process.



One reason is that  the planning process is especially well suited  to the




consideration of the relationships between air pollution and the many tech-



nical, social, economic, and political factors that influence potential




long-term solutions.  Another reason is that air pollution is only one of a




multitude of problems and issues that compete for the limited resources of




society and the economy; the planning process represents a rational,  syste-




matic means for examining regional needs and determining priorities to satisfy




such needs.

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      Yet despite this concern for achieving long-term solutions through




orderly comprehensive planning, there is little evidence that air pollution




has ever been a serious consideration in the development and implementation




of a land use or transportation plan.  One of the most fundamental reasons




for this lack of attention is that planners durrently have neither the exper-




tise nor the analytical tools and methodologies required to assess the air




pollution consequences of planning alternatives.  In recognition of these




factors the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has undertaken a




number of research studies to stimulate greater consideration of air pollution




in the land use and transportation planning process, especially through the




development of methodologies and guidelines for the assessment of air quality




associated with proposed land use plans.




      In like manner the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection




(NJDEP) has become acutely sensitive to the finite and interrelated nature




of the air, water, and land resources of the state.  By virtue of its location




in the heart of the Washington-New York-Boston megalopolis, New Jersey is




experiencing tremendous growth pressures even though it already is one of the



most highly urbanized and industrialized states in the Union.  While the




overwhelming majority of its efforts have been devoted to correcting ex-



isting environmental abuses, the Department is looking toward new ways



to plan for orderly growth which will protect the quality of the environment.




      A particularly important example of New Jersey's concern for the environ-




ment and its approach to improving environmental quality through land use




planning is illustrated by the State's attempt to reclaim and develop the




Hackensack Meadowlands of northern New Jersey.  In 1968, the New Jersey




Legislature passed the "Hackensack Meadowlands Reclamation and Developine*"

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Act"  creating a commission with the authority to prepare, adopt,  and


implement a master plan for the orderly development of the district.  As  a


consequence, a number of alternative comprehensive  land use plans  have been


prepared to complement previous development in the district and to correct


existing imbalances in regional land uses.


      The New Jersey Hackensack Meadowlands District is a tract of land


measuring approximately four miles by eight miles extending in a north-south


direction along the Hackensack River.  As shown in Figure 1,  the Meadowlands


is located at the hub of the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area.  Within


a five-mile wide zone around the Meadowlands is Manhattan immediately across


the Hudson River to the east,  Jersey City and Newark to the south, Paterson


and Passaic to the northwest,  and Hackensack to the north.  Today, the


Hackensack Meadowlands consists largely of meadows, marshes,  and salt-water


swamps.  Of its nearly 20,000 acres oniy 7000 are committed to permanent


uses.  These consist largely of transportation networks (highways, railroads,


and an airport),  distribution centers (freight terminals, warehouses, stor-


age tanks, and utility transmission lines), and solid waste disposal (over


30,000 tons per week from more than 100 municipalities).


      Planners of the Hackensack Meadowlands Development  Commission (HMDC)


envision developing the Meadowlands in order to provide more  than 300,000


jobs and homes for some 185,000 persons by 1990 while preserving nearly

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5000 acres for conservation land and open space.    However, water pollution,


air pollution, and dumping of solid wastes have damaged the natural ecology


of the tidal marsh and have created an unsightly blighted area.  Planners


of the HMDC recognize that the ultimate success of their  plans to provide


housing, employment, and economic development for the region depends on the


restoration of the natural environment, not upon its exploitation.

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                           MAC KEN SACK <

                           MEADOWLANDS "
                           DISTRICT
Figure 1   Location of the  Hackensack Meadowlands District

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      Consequently, EPA and the New Jersey Department of Environmental




Protection have sponsored a study addressed to the mutual concerns of both




agencies for improving future air quality through the planning of land use




and transportation activities.  In particular, the two fundamental objectives




of this jointly sponsored study are:  (1)  to develop a broad-based methodology




for considering air pollution in the formulation and evaluation of alterna-




tive urban plans; and (2) to demonstrate  in detail this methodology through



its direct application to the planning alternatives developed for the New




Jersey Hackensack Meadowlands District.






1.2  Objectives and Scope of the Study






      Environmental Research § Technology, Inc.  (ERT) was selected to under-




take this study to  Initiate air pollution considerations in the development,




evaluation, and selection of alternative  land use plans for the New Jersey




Hackensack Meadowlands.    The general objectives of the effort were to:





      1.  Develop procedures for incorporating air pollution considerations




          into the land use and transportation planning process.





      2.  Develop analytical tools and methodologies necessary to permit



          planners to carry out these procedures.





      3.  Perform an analysis of the air  pollution potential associated



          with alternative comprehensive  land use plans for the Hackensack




          Meadowlands in the 1990 time period.





      4.  Prepare a planning guidelines document which will enable urban




          and transportation planners to  introduce air pollution considera-




          tions into the planning process.

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      5.  Provide the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection



          with an operational capability to use these procedures and



          methodologies to assess newly developed land use plans or modi-



          fications to existing planning alternatives for the Hackensack



          Meadowlands.




      In carrying out these objectives the scope of the study was limited



to the analysis and comparative evaluation of four alternative comprehensive



land use plans for the Meadowlands for the 1990 time period.  The assessment



of air quality was restricted to the consideration of regional scale concen-



trations for annual averages and for summer and winter seasonal averages.



Assessment of microscale air quality impacts, i.e., variations in concentra-



tions over small distances and short time averaging periods, was not within



the scope of this study.  Five pollutants were considered:  total suspended



particulates (TSP); sulfur dioxide (SCL); carbon monoxide (CO); total hydro-



carbons (HC); and nitrogen oxides (NOY).  The analysis also included the
                                     A


influence of emission sources outside the Meadowlands on air quality within



the planning region.  The study was further restricted to the use of avail-



able emissions data and air quality measurements data for model validation.



      Finally, the scope of the study called specifically for the develop-



ment of analytical methodologies:  (1) for estimating total future  (1990)



air pollution emissions for an urbanized area; (2) for translating projected



emissions into predictions of future (1990) air quality levels; and  (3) for



the evaluation and ranking of alternative urban plans.

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1.3  Structure of the Final Report




     The final report describes the two major achievements of this study:




(1) the development of the AQUIP System, a methodology for considering Air




Quality in Urban and Industrial Planning; and (2) the application of this




methodology to the evaluation and ranking of four land use plans for the




New Jersey Hackensack Meadowlands District.




     The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study final report consists




of a summary report, 5 task reports, and 3 appendices, each bound separately.




Specifically, these reports include:




  •  The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study-Summary Report




     (ERT Document No. P-244-SR)




  •  The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study Task 1 Report:




     Emissions Projection Methodology (ERT Document No. P-244-1)




  •  The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study Task 2 Report:




     Development and Validation of a Modeling Technique for Predicting




     Air Quality Levels (ERT Document No. P-244-2)




  •  The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study Task 3 Report:




     The Evaluation and Ranking of Land Use Plans (ERT Doc. No. P-244-3)




  •  The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study Task 4 Report:




     Guidelines for the Consideration of Air Pollution in Urban Planning




     (ERT Doc. No. P-244-4).




  •  The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study Task 5 Report:  The




     AQUIP Software System User's Manual (ERT Doc. No. P-244-5).




  •   The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study Appendix A:  Plan Data




     Sets and Conversion Factors Catalog (Appendix to the Task 1 Report),




     (ERT Doc. No. P-244-1A).

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  •  The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution  Study Appendix  B:  Current  and




     Background  Emission  Inventories  (Appendix to the Task  1  Report),



      (ERT  Doc. No. P-244-1B).




  •  The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution  Study Appendix  C:  Program




     Listings  (Appendix to the Task 5 Report),  (ERT Doc. No.  P-244-5C).




     The five task reports correspond directly to the five  major tasks around




which the  study  was organized.  These reports  provide a complete and detailed




discussion of the approach,  data, assumptions, results and  conclusions for




each task.   In addition,  two separately bound  appendices to the Task 1 Report




document the data sets and specific calculation routines used for estimating




emissions  in the study.   Similarly a separately bound appendix to the Task 5



Report documents the AQUIP System software.




      A summary description of  the work performed  and results  obtained  in




the study is  presented  in  this  Summary Report.  The material is  taken from




each of the study task reports, but  is organized and presented in relation




to overall study objectives.  In particular, Section  2 presents  an  overview




of the procedures for incorporating  air  pollution  in the  planning process.



The detailed discussion of those procedures is found  in  the Task 3  Report.




      Sections 3, 4,  and 5 present  summary descriptions  of technical method-




ologies and analytical tools developed explicitly  to permit the planner to




carry out the general procedures.   Specifically,  Section 3 summarizes  the



emissions projection techniques, which are described in detail in the Task 1




Report.  Section 4 summarizes the air quality  projection techniques and vali-




dation procedures, which  are described in detail in the Task  2 Report.




Section 5 summarizes the computer programs, data sets,  and information flow



associated with  the AQUIP System, the  basic tool  for carrying out the air

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quality assessment procedures.  The detailed description of the AQUIP System




software is given in the Task 5 Report.




      Section 6 presents a summary of the results of the air quality analysis




of the Meadowlands land use plans using the AQUIP System.  The detailed




discussion of the comparative evaluation of the alternative plans is given




in the Task 3 Report.




      Section 7 summarizes the conclusions and planning guidelines derived




from the Meadowlands air pollution study.  The complete planning guidelines




are presented in the Task 4 Report.




      Finally, Section 8 presents a summary of major conclusions from the




study and lists recommendations for further research efforts.




      It is expected that this Summary Report will receive a wider distribu-




tion than the individual task reports and therefore is oriented toward pro-




viding summary information and general descriptions of techniques and results.




Planners, air pollution control officials, and other readers who desire to




use the procedures and analytical methodologies described herein should




obtain copies of the detailed task reports that are applicable to their parti-




cular interests.

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            2.  GENERAL METHODOLOGY FOR CONSIDERING AIR POLLUTION




                            IN THE PLANNING PROCESS









2.1  The AQUIP System






     In response to the general requirements identified in a survey of plan-




ning agencies, a methodology has been developed which permits planners to




incorporate air pollution considerations within the planning process.   The




elements of this methodology consist generally of:  (1) a set of procedures




for collecting, processing and interpreting land use and other input data;




(2) a set of procedures for generating air quality information from such




input data; and (3) a set of procedures for the evaluation and ranking of




alternative land use plans.  This combination of methodologies, procedures




and analytical tools represents a system for the analysis of air pollution




associated with land use and transportation plans.   This system has been




designated as the AQUIP System (Air Quality for Urban and Industrial Plan-




ning), and is represented schematically in Figure 2.




     The AQUIP System is a computer-oriented set of procedures involving the




planner in an iterative cycle of plan evaluation and modification consisting




of the following basic steps:





     1.  The preparation of input data descriptive of the land use or




         transportation plan.





     2.  The conversion of these data into pollutant emissions data.





     3.  The prediction and display of mean ambient pollutant concentrations




         within the area of interest.
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                    OVERALL PLANNING
                    GOALS, CRITERIA AND
                    CONSTRAINTS
            THE PLANNER
              AND THE
        URBAN-INDUSTRIAL PLAN
                  PLANNING DATA
      CONVERSION METHODOLOGY
       FROM PLANNING DATA TO
           EMISSIONS DATA
                  EMISSIONS DATA
      AIR QUALITY COMPUTATION
              MODEL
CLIMATOLOGICAL
DATA
                   AIR QUALITY DATA,
                      MAPS, ETC.
          PLAN EVALUATION
           METHODOLOGY
 AIR QUALITY
 STANDARDS AND
 CRITERIA
                   ANALYSIS OF PLAN ADEQUACY RELATIVE
                       TO AIR POLLUTION CRITERIA
Figure 2   The AQUIP System Conceptual Design
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     4.  The evaluation and ranking of the plan with respect to other




         plans through analysis of air quality contours and the computation




         of quantitative measures of impact.





     5.  The subsequent modification of the plan or the input data and the




         repetition of the process.





Of these five steps the first and last require the direct involvement of the




planner to specify and manipulate planning data, to assess the degree to




which a plan satisfies the planning objectives and constraints, and to specify




changes to the plan as deemed necessary.  The other steps involve directly




the use of computer-based models and data management programs to perform the




required air quality projections and data calculations.




     A basic feature of the AQUIP System is that it permits the direct input




of land use planning data.  As a result it can be used to compute ambient air




quality concentrations related to specific land use activities.  The primary




outputs of the AQUIP System are in the form of computer-generated maps and




tabular listings of data.   Computed concentrations for each of the pollutants




may be displayed as isopleth contours and overlayed on base maps of the




planning region, permitting a rapid visual correlation between air quality



concentrations and land use activities.




     The heart of the AQUIP is the mathematical diffusion model used to



compute pollutant concentrations based on source emissions input data and




meteorological parameters.  The model is a version of the Martin-Tikvart




advection-diffusion model  which has been extensively modified by ERT to




improve the accuracy of calculating concentrations over short transport




distances and to improve flexibility in the use of the model.
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     Another essential element of the AQUIP System is the air quality data




management and impact analysis software.   In this portion of the system the




user can specify arbitrary measures of impact and can manipulate air quality




data, emissions data, land use data, air  quality standards,  or any other




data set to calculate such impact measures.  Calculated data can be tabulated




or presented graphically, showing for example, the distribution of air quality




concentrations, emissions densities, impact parameters, land use densities,




or other data of interest to the planner.  Furthermore, such data can be used




to compare and rank plans in terms of air quality standards  and other criteria




as specified by the planner.






2.2  Basic Air Quality Analysis  Considerations






     The procedures developed for the evaluation and  ranking of alternative




land use plans are based on determining air quality on a region-wide geo-




graphic scale for annual and seasonal average pollutant concentrations.




Furthermore, the evaluation of air quality associated with a plan focuses




on the analysis of four items:




     1.  The degree of compliance with ambient air quality standards.




     2.  The degree of impact on regional levels of air quality.



     3.  The degree of impact on specific receptors or land  use cate-



         gories that are especially sensitive to the  effects of pollutants.




     4.  The indication of ways to modify plans to improve air quality.




     Procedures for examining compliance  with air quality standards involve




the calculation of projected air quality  contours over the planning region.
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The maximum values of predicted air quality levels are then compared with




the appropriate ambient air quality standards.




     Procedures for examining the impact of land use plans on regional air




quality are based first on the examination of spatial patterns of air quality




and secondly on the calculation of quantitative measures of impact for each




pollutant.  The examination of the isopleth contours of pollutant concentra-




tions over the planning region indicates the location of regions of low and




high pollutant concentrations and also permits the visual examination of the




influence of the type, location and intensity of land use activities on the



air quality contours.   The calculation of impact measures permits the com-




parative evaluation and ranking of alternative plans through the quantitative




assessment of their impact on regional air quality.




     An especially important aspect of the analysis and evaluation of land




use plans is the analysis of impact of air pollution levels on specific high-




risk receptors and land use categories.  The analysis procedures are based




both on the examination of the location of critical receptors relative to




air quality contours and on the calculation of quantitative measures of




impact.



      Procedures for plan modification using the AQUIP System consist of



 general guidelines based on the tabulation of the annual emissions per acre




 for the different land use categories analyzed for the Hackensack Meadow-




 lands.  These data show the relative sensitivity of air quality levels to




 such plan design factors as the mix, location, and intensity of land use




 categories.  Such data can be used, for example, to identify land use cate-




 gories which can be located within the plan without any significant impact




 on regional air pollution concentration levels, but which substantially




 reduce exposures of critical receptors to pollutants.







                                     15

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2.3  Methodologies for Plan Evaluation and Ranking






     Procedures were developed for tue evaluation and comparative ranking




of alternative land use plans based on the interpretation of three basic




types of information: land use data, air quality data, and air quality cri-




teria.  The basic methodologies developed for plan evaluation and ranking




consist of the analysis of regional air quality based on the calculation  of




quantitative measures of impact and on the graphical display of air quality




contours.  The interpretation of air quality contours relies largely on




visual examination and subjective judgment rather than on quantitative




analysis.  On the other hand, quantitative impact measures permit analytic




evaluation, but subdue the physical and intuitive interpretation of the




results.  Consequently, the key issue involved in the development of procedures




for plan evaluation and ranking concerns the role of subjective judgment  on




the part of the planner:  the interpretation of quantitative evaluation and




ranking data and its importance relative to other planning issues ultimately




is a value judgment.



     In this study the quantitative measures of impact that were found to




be most useful and meaningful in both plan evaluation and ranking were: (1)




measures of integrated receptor exposure, and (2) measures of average recep-




tor exposure.  The integrated receptor exposure for a given plan is calcu-



lated by superimposing an arbitrary grid system on the planning region,




forming the product of the number of receptors per grid cell times the pol-




lutant concentration within the grid cell, then summing this product over




all grid cells within the planning region.  This impact measure physically




represents an indicator of the cumulative values of receptor exposures within




the plan.  By contrast, the average receptor exposure impact measure is
                                     16

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calculated from the integrated exposure measure by dividing the resultant




integrated exposure measure by the total number of receptors within the plan.




Consequently, the average exposure measure has units of pollutant concentra-




tion and physically represents an indicator of the average concentration' to




which any given receptor within the plan will be exposed.




     The receptors investigated in terms of these quantitative measures of




impact were people and land.  Two categories of people receptors were used:




total population and student population.  Four categories of land receptors




were used:  total land area, residential land area, open space land area., and




the combination of commercial and industrial land area.  In the analysis of




the Hackensack Meadowlands plans, the average total area exposure was examined




as the primary measure of regional air quality levels and the average popula-




tion exposure impact parameter was examined as the principal measure of impact




on critical receptors.  However, quantitative impact measures were calculated




for all combinations of pollutants and receptor categories.  In addition, the




AQUIP System permits a significant amount of flexibility in defining and




calculating other quantitative measures of impact and in specifying air




quality criteria other than ambient air quality standards for use in the




evaluation.




     The specific  requirements  for  the  quantitative ranking of  alternative




land use plans differ slightly from  the  requirements for the analysis  and




evaluation of plans.   The basic  need for plan ranking is to generate  a single




number or ranking index that can be  calculated for each plan to  permit the




relative ranking of the plans.   This ranking index may be associated with the




impact of a single pollutant,  thereby allowing a  pollutant  by pollutant  compari-




son and ranking,  or may be associated with  the combined impact of  all  pollutants




(i.e.,  a multipollutant air quality  index).
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     Although it is required that the ranking methodology be based on a




formula in order to permit the ranking to be based on quantitative criteria




precisely stated in objective terms, it is evident that no ranking index is




unique or absolute.  In fact, it is desired that the ranking scheme be suf-




ficiently flexible to accommodate the subjective values of the planner and




his particular circumstances in formulating the ranking index.




     A brief survey of the literature dealing with the general multipollutant




air quality indices indicates that despite the fact that many such indices




have been proposed, all exhibit some degree of difficulty in accurately




characterizing the status of regional air quality in terms of multipollutant




impact, and few were found to be directly applicable to the ranking of land



use plans.




     Three specific ranking schemes were examined in detail to determine




their suitability as a meaningful and useful  index for ranking alternative




land use plans.  The methodology finally selected for use in the analysis




of the alternative land use plans for the Hackensack Meadow]ands is desig-



nated as the Normalized Impact Parameter Ranking Index.   The selected ranking




index is described in detail in Section 5.3.3 of the Task 3 Report.
                                    18

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                 3.  METHODOLOGY FOR PROJECTING EMISSIONS









3.1  Basic Features of the Procedures






     One of the major objectives of the study was to develop a methodology




to aid planners in determining air pollutant emissions directly from land




use and transportation activity data.



     The basic requirements established for the emission projection method-




ology were:  compatibility of emissions data with both planning information




and dispersion model formats, applicability to general situations and not




just to the Meadowlands, reliance upon existing state and federal emis-




sions inventory data, and provision for updating.  These shaped the pro-




cedures developed.  A five-step procedure was formulated to transform




data on levels of activity into fuel demand, and fuel use into emissions.




These transformations rely upon empirically derived "default parameters" as




well as upon published government data, such as air pollutant emission factors.



     The procedures are applied and tested in two phases:  in the first




phase current planning data and current emissions are correlated to produce




projecting indices.  In the second phase these projecting indices are modi-



fied to reflect future time periods and are applied to planning data so as




to generate future emission levels.  The study was concerned as much with



the applications of this second phase to the Hackensack Meadowlands land use




plans, as with the development of the procedures themselves.






3.2  General Description of the Procedures






     Procedures presently used to estimate emissions from land use and trans-




portation planning data often emphasize empirical derivation of emission



indices as a one-step function of "activity categories."  in this study,
                                      19

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however, a multi-step approach was developed so that:  (1) all assumptions



and constraints involved in transforming the levels  of activities




into emissions could be examined;  and (2)  procedures for updating the




information which the planner does not directly input could be specified.



     In response to the study objectives  a  five-step procedure was formulated:





     Step 1 - Activities:   For each land use or transportation planning




category identified for analysis, the "level of activity" is specified,




such as 20 dwelling units per acre for residential density.





     Step 2 - Activity Indices:   For each category of activity,  "default



parameters" for determining fuel requirements are developed, such as 10




BTUs (British Thermal Units of heat demand) per hour per square foot of




residential floor area.






     Step 5 - Fuel Use:  For each category of activity (and geographical sub-




region of the study area) default parameters for the  propensity  to use




different fuels are applied to the fuel requirements, such as the degree to




which oil is used  (75%) rather than natural gas (25%) for home heating.





     Step 4 - Emission Factors:   For each category of activity, engineering




estimates of fuel and non-fuel  (process)  related "emission factors" are



developed and applied directly to fuel use and process rates to determine




emissions, such as 10 pounds of particulates per 1000 gal. of fuel oil burned.





     Step 5 - Emissions:  Emissions calculated from fuel and process sources




are adjusted for season of the year, based on temperature variation (degree




days) and default parameters representing the percent of fuel used for "space




heating" purposes.





     Of particular importance in this study was the application of these




five-step procedures in two distinct and consecutive phases.  In the first phase
                                      20

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current planning data and current fuel use are correlated to produce projec-




ting indices - the default parameters.  In the second phase these projecting




indices are modified to reflect future time periods and are applied to plan-




ning data so as to generate future fuel demand and emission levels.  Current




data on fuel use and emission factors are likewise used to predict future




information when better estimates are not known.  The first phase analysis



provides the majority of the default parameters to be used in the second




phase in conjunction with the planner's own inputs.




     By focusing attention on such procedures for determining current emission




inventories, it is easier to develop techniques for estimating future emis-




sion inventories.  This is important since future inventories must depend




directly upon planning related data.  Furthermore, it is only through an




excellent understanding of the relationship between planning and emissions




for current inventories that the necessary conversion factors to project




future emissions can be developed.



     Another especially important consideration in this study was the develop-




ment of procedures for allocating emissions to a grid system as required for input




to the diffusion model. Emission inventories are too often tied to the grid cell



system that is used for modeling purposes. Much of the original information




obtained by land use zones or political jurisdiction is lost in the process




of transferring the data to the area source grid cells.  The grid cell size




cannot be changed at a later date and a great deal of manual input of data mus\,




be undertaken.  To avoid these problems, a powerful and innovative technique




was developed as part of the LANTRAN program to make the processing of inform-




ation independent of grid size. The key to the technique is the initial




listing of land use activities and related characteristics in a computer
                                    21

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data bank by geographical coordinates (such as UTM - Universal Traverse




Mercator - Coordinates) and land use zones.  Emissions data for each land




use zone are computed by referencing the conversion factors catalog.  Then,




any specified grid size can be superimposed and the emissions contained




within each grid cell calculated.  Thus, if changes are to be made in the




initial land use data or if a different grid cell system is desired, the




incremental changes can be made without destroying the entire data system.




This feature provides for the maximum convenience in updating basic data and




for maximum flexibility in the use of the data.




     A final consideration of basic importance concerns procedures for



estimating emissions when confronted with inadequate data.  To put such




general procedures into practice requires assumptions and approximations:




the data may not be available according  to  the land  use zones  and  political




jurisdiction desired; many of the parameters necessary for the activity




indices contained in the conversion factors catalog may be missing from the




data base.  For missing data the concept of "default parameters" was de-




veloped.  If information is desired, for example, according to a detailed




industrial classification for the propensity to use different fuels but



data are available only on an aggregated basis for all industries in the




region, a default parameter is used to assign the industry-wide factor to




each individual industry.  If, at a later date, specific information for an




industry becomes known, then it can be incorporated into the conversion




factors catalog in place of the default parameter.






3.3  Illustration of the Estimation Procedures






     Three examples can be discussed briefly to show the application of



these procedures to planning activity data, in general, and to the Meadow-




lands plans, in particular.  The three examples show:  (1) a residential land
                                     22

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use zone represented as an "area-wide" source;  (2) an industrial activity




represented as a single "point" source; and (3) a highway segment represented



as a "line" source.





     3.3.1  Example of Area Source Emissions Estimation Procedures






     For a residential land use category there are several planning inputs that



are required, referred to by the steps in the five-step procedure previously



outlined:





     Step 1 - The density and acreage can be used to determine the number of



dwelling units.





     Step 2 - The average number of rooms and type of dwelling unit can be



used to determine the heating requirement (fuel demand)  per dwelling unit.





     Step 3 - The mix of single family homes,  town houses and apartments



can be used to determine what fuels will be burned and with what size equip-



ment.   This procedure was very elaborate in the case of the Hackensack Meadow-



lands plans: clusters of apartment complexes separated by open water were



often heated from a single central system.




     Several default parameters may also be required, particularly in Step 2.



Current data on activity levels and fuel use can be used to calculate a default



parameter for heating demand - British Thermal Units per dwelling unit



(BTU/d.u); this value can be adjusted for a future time period and for dif-



ferences between residential categories, particularly for the number of rooms




per dwelling unit.



     It is necessary to answer several important questions concerning how




the fuel demand will be satisfied:



     1.  What fuel will be used (oil, coal, gas, steam,  or electricity)?
                                      23

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     2.  What other home activities in addition to heating will use




         the fuel (cooking, hot water)?





     3.  What type of fuel-burning apparatus will be used (individual




         home heating, or a central heating system for several thousand




         dwelling units)?





     National or regional default parameters can usually be relied upon to




answer the first two questions, but the third question is basically a planning



decision.  There is a significant trend toward centralized heating and cooling




systems for reasons of economy in developments such as those contemplated




for the Meadowlands. The density of development and the large scale of each




single complex is such that many of the procedures formulated for the




Meadowlands plans cannot be translated into average suburban single-family




residential areas.




     Step 4 - For each fuel and type of fuel burning equipment  (individual




house or central system), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has pub-




lished emission factors .




     Step 5 - These factors are used to translate the amount of fuel burned




into the quantity of emissions for various pollutants.  The size of the fuel




burning installation determines which factors should be Used and whether or



not emission control devices are likely to be used.






     3.3.2  Example of Point Source Emissions Estimation Procedures






     For an industrial activity the problem may be more complex.  In dealing




with an existing major emitter represented as a point source, adequate emis-




sions information may be available from a current inventory; however, it is




unlikely that the present level of activity or projected changes in that level
                                    24

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will be known.  Conversely, planning information tends to deal with indus-




tries by broad categories and rarely with a specific firm and its character-




istics which will influence the level of emissions at a particular location.




The land use planner does work with parameters such as acres and lot cover-




age which can yield an estimate of the number of square feet of floor space




for a new facility (Step 1).  In the case of the Meadowlands plans, for




example, only the area of each industrial lot (in multiples of 10 acres)




was specified by the planners.




     Empirically derived estimates of BTUs per square foot for heating pur-




poses (Step 2) show great variation; even greater variation is exhibited in




the percent of fuel used by industries for heating.  It may be 100% for a




warehouse and close to zero for a foundry.  Propensities to use different




fuels (Step 3) may be derived empirically by industrial category, such as




the two-digit or four-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) adopted




by the U.S. Department of Commerce for their Census of Manufacturing.




     The least reliable information involves separate process emissions from




industrial sources, such as the evaporation from a tank farm.  Source emis-




sion inventories have generally been incomplete in this area; therefore,




little empirical data are available from which to derive default parameters.



Furthermore, where emission factors have been determined, they are related



to process rate: the total quantity of material processed per unit time for




the operation producing the emissions.  Process rate has not as yet been cor-




related with parameters that are readily available to the planner; virtually




no planning effort would include projections of process rate.  Therefore,




very crude default parameters have been developed in this study to relate




process emission by activity category directly to fuel emissions or to activity




level, such as employment.
                                      25

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      If an activity such as  an industrial land use zone does not generate a




 large amount of emissions,  it should be aggregated into an area source for




 modeling purposes  rather than considered a separate point source.   Default



 size  criteria were determined for  each  activity category to  allow  the




 planner to decide, objectively,  whether a particular development should be




 considered a point source or not.






      3.3.3  Example of Line Source Emissions Estimation Procedures






      The procedures for determining line source emissions from a highway




 network are quite  simple.  Activities (Step 1)  are multiplied directly by emis-




 sion  factors (Step 4)  to produce emissions (Step 5).   The EPA emission factors




 vary  by vehicle class;  in addition,  the factors for certain  pollutants vary




 with  speed.   Transporation planners routinely determine all  of the ac-




 tivity data needed.  The procedures use default parameters for vehicle class




 mix,  model year mix, and average speed  together with the appropriate emission




 factors where local data are not available.   Whether or not  a particular traf-




 fic segment should be  a line source or  an area source can be determined by



 a  size criterion,  based on vehicle  miles  per unit  time.





     3.3.4  Other Estimation Procedures






     The procedures to  go from activity levels  (Step 1) to emission strengths




 (Step 5) for all other  activities represent combinations of and modifications




 to these three examples.  In many cases, commercial, institutional, or trans-




portation activity emissions can be determined  as a function of the residen-




 tial activities  they serve.  This is particularly relevant when a planned




development having apartments, offices, stores, and parking areas built as




one unit is involved.
                                     26

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     Certain activity categories, such as parks, were considered to have




negligible emissions when averaged over a season or the year and were, there-




fore, not included in the analysis.  Other categories, such as the airport,




did not have significant fuel-related emissions but did have significant pro-




cess emissions which were related directly to the level of activity  (number




of flights per year).  In some cases the level of activity may indicate indi-




rect sources of emissions, such as transportation usage for a sports complex.




      In the study, the area outside the Meadowlands planning district was




treated as the background region for purposes of determining emissions.  The




same five-step procedures were followed, but both the activity categories and




the actual data available were far less detailed.  Most activity categories




were treated as area sources and were aggregated from the county level to




grid cells of various sizes.  Residential and non-residential square feet of




floor space (Step 1), BTU's per square foot (Step 2), propensity to use oil




versus gas (Step 3), and residential, industrial, and commercial fuel combustion



emission factors (Step 4) were used to determine emissions (Step 5).  Most




other categories such as transportation, evaporation and incineration, were




treated as activities (Step 1)  times emission factors (Step 4)  yields emis-



sions (Step 5).   Large separate sources, such as power plants,  were separately




projected to 1990 based on current data and appropriate changes in their




emission characteristics; these were treated as point sources.   Major roadways




near the Meadowland were treated as  line sources using the aforementioned pro-



cedure.






3.4  Computational Techniques






     The actual calculations to determine 1990 source emissions for the




Hackensack Meadowlands plans were carried out using computer routines within
                                     27

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the AQUIP software system.  All data inputs were completely standardized




in computer form, and all decisions involving the treatment of a specific




land use zone were likewise standardized in computer form.




     Such computational procedures are quite complex.   They include flags




which indicate, for example, that three residential zones are served by one




central heating system and should therefore be receded to the location of




that central heating system.  Such flags provide the planner with the flexi-




bility to treat each land use zone uniquely, and thus provide a very powerful




analytical tool.  They are, however, very time-consuming to formulate and




translate into the required objective computer form, and are very much




application specific rules, based on specific planning assumptions.




     To illustrate, the calculations required for schools are complex




because the heating requirement for a school  (BTUs per classroom) is a func-




tion of the residential area it serves.  Flags in the computer program would




show, for example, that a particular school (and its commensurate heating




requirement) are linked to certain residential areas.   Then, specific




planning-related information is needed on the number of pupils per classroom,



the number of pupils or children per dwelling unit, and the percentage of




these children who would go to the type of school under consideration--primary




or secondary.  Such information was determined in this study in consultation



with the Meadowlands planning staff.





     A similar complex linkage occurs in the computation of emissions for




certain commercial activities, such as neighborhood shopping areas, where the




amount of space was found to be a function of the size of the residential




apartment clusters as specified in the Hackensack Meadowlands Zoning Regu-




lations; furthermore, because the development is most likely to be built
                                     28

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as one unit, it was assumed that the heat would be supplied by the same




central system that serves the apartments.






3.5  Conclusions






     The application of the emissions projection methodology to the Meadow-




lands plans showed that the five-step procedures were workable and, in fact,



quite adaptable to the land use considerations that were encountered.  In




particular, the development of a conversion factors catalog and sets of




default parameters demonstrated that the planner need input only planning-




related data to use a tool such as the AQUIP System.




     However, it was found that the planner must specify data he does not




normally deal with, such as the sizes of developments in terms of their heating




requirements, and the types of manufacturing operations anticipated.




Furthermore, the level of detail available for empirically deriving the




default parameters was unsatisfactory for discerning between related activi-




ties; this was particularly true for deciding fuel use and determining




process-related emissions.  Consequently, the greatest need for further work




involves the empirical derivation of activity indices and default parameters.




The availability of current region-wide emissions data for model validation




and for the determination of the projective indices was also inadequate.



     The methodology, as developed and applied allows meaningful comparisons



to be made among the alternative Hackensack Meadowlands land use plans.  In



addition the methodology should be useful in determining the effect of incre-




mental changes in a plan, or in the testing of additional plans.
                                     29

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                  4.  METHODOLOGY FOR PROJECTING AIR QUALITY





4.1  General Description of the Air Quality Projection Model



      The basic goal of the atmospheric diffusion model development and


validation effort has been the calculation of seasonal and annual average


concentrations for the pollutants of interest (S02, CO, NOy, hydrocarbons


and particulates) expected within the planning region for the emission


patterns associated with various possible land use distributions that may


exist in 1990.


      The model used for projecting air quality is called the ERT/MARTIK


atmospheric diffusion model.  It is a gaussian plume model that follows

                                                                   4
the physical and mathematical basis described by Martin and Tikvart  and


documented in the report on the Air Quality Display Model.  Numerous modifi-


cations have been incorporated into the ERT/MARTIK model to improve computa-


tional accuracy for receptors near source areas, to permit tradeoffs between


accuracy requirements and computation time,  to permit improved flexibility


in the treatment of rectangular area sources of any size and location,  and


to permit direct treatment of line sources.


      The principal modifications incorporated into the ERT/MARTIK model


include:


      1.  Treatment of Area-Source Emissions


      A major improvement of accuracy of representation was made by replac-


ing the virtual point source approximation to area source emissions with a


numerical integration procedure over the area source.   The use of a virtual


point source representation for area sources results in a "sawtooth"


concentration profile in the crosswind direction at short distances downwind
                                     31

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from a group of area source cells.   The numerical integration scheme avoids
this difficulty.   The integration is accomplished by summation of elemental
strips of the area source and may be used for any specified source height
and any wind direction.  For efficiency of calculation, the computation
routine uses fewer elemental strips when the source receptor distance is large
and where finer elements would not significantly change the computed
concentrations.  The maximum number of elemental strips to be used is
externally specified as a part of a set of input parameters that control
computational accuracy.
      2.  Treatment of Line-Source Emissions
      Emissions from roadways may be represented as line sources.  In order
 to  estimate the downwind concentration from these sources for any possible
 wind direction and elevation, another numerical integration routine was
 developed.  This procedure involves approximating short segments of the
 line representation with upwind virtual point sources.  In a manner similar
 to  that of the area source integration, the number of virtual points per
 unit length used depends upon the distance to the receptor and the desired
 accuracy.
      3.  Flexibility of Operating Mode and Output Format
      A major feature of the ERT/MARTIK model is the ability to isolate
 the contributions to the concentration at receptors by simple choices of
 input parameters.  Thus, for example, the contributions from individual
 sources, wind directions, or stability classes may be easily isolated.
      4.  Computational Efficiency Features
      In addition to the controlled accuracy capabilities discussed in
 terms of the integration routines for line and area type sources, a number
                                      32

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of other specific improvements have been made to keep computation time

low.  These include: (1) input specification of argument value ranges for

which exponentials may be approximated by simple functions;  (2) simple

inverse scaling of concentration contributions as a function of wind speed,

for sources with zero effective plume rise; and (3) optimization of the

number of source-receptor geometry calculations for a given run.


      5.  Compatibility with Computer Core Limitations and AQUIP System

          Software Interface Requirements


      The model, which is compatible with IBM 360 computers, has also been

specially modified to permit its use on the RCA SPECTRA 70 computer operated

by the New Jersey Department of Health.  Specially designed data storage and

data flow routines have been developed to comply with the core limitations

(i.e., 55,000 bytes) of the SPECTRA 70.  Also, the model input and output

routines have been integrated into the AQUIP software system (for example,

the LANTRAN program which computes emissions source distributions from given

planning parameters, and the SYMAP computer graphics program,  which provides

general display capabilities for land use, emissions and air quality data).


4.2  Basis of the Model: The Gaussian Plume Equation


      The model calculations are based upon multiple applications, and

integrated forms, of the gaussian plume equation, which represents the con-

centration pattern downwind from a point source.  The general  form of the

equation is
                                [-1/2
                                      2                       2
                    exp  [-1/2  (5-lJi )  ]  +  exp  [-1/2  (^-i-H ) ]  >>     (1)
                                 0 z                     CTz
                                     33

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where




      (x,y,z)     are the  (upwind, cross-wind  and  vertical)



                 components of a cartesian  coordinate  system,  such



                 that  the receptor point  is located at or vertically



                 above the origin  (expressed  in units  of length)  and



                 the source at the point  (x,y,H)



         H       is the effective height  of emission and therefore



                 the centerline height of the plume (length)







         q       is source strength  (mass/time)







     a , a        are dispersion coefficients that are measures of
      y  z              c


                 cross-wind and vertical plume spread.   These two



                 parameters are functions of downwind distance and



                 atmospheric stability (length)



         u       is average wind speed (length/time)







     Figure 3 illustrates the  geometry for the plume equation.   The  source



base is at z = 0 in the coordinate system, and the plume center-line reaches



an equilibrium height H at some distance downwind from the source.
                                       34

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                                                                       Plume Axis
                                                                        (downwind)
(*ry,o)
                                                                                      y
                                                                                (crosswind)
                                        X  ^ (upwind)
             Figure 3   Coordinate System Showing Gaussian Distributions in the
                        Horizontal and Vertical (Ref.: Turner (1969), Workbook
                        of Atmospherji Dispersion Estimates, PHS Publication
                        No. AP-26).
   5+14
                                            35

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      The Task 2 Report contains a description of the gaussian plume equation,




including: (1) a list of the limiting assumptions associated with its use,




(2) the method of using integrated forms of the equation for the calculation




of seasonal and annual average concentration levels, and (3) methods for




calculating concentrations resulting from point, line and area sources, based




on the plume equation.






4.3  Data Used in the Modeling Studies






      4.3.1  Data Requirements






      Three principal types of data are required for an atmospheric dis-




persion model analysis.  These are:





      1.  Source Data





      Emission data for all pollutants of interest must be available.  The




emission data log may contain a combination of point, line and area sources.




Information required for each source includes emission rate, location of the




source, and engineering data necessary to determine plume rise.





      2.  Transport Data





      This category of data generally includes meteorological  data  and  infor-




mation on ground topography in the region of interest.  The model requires




climatological records indicating the joint frequency of occurrence of  wind




speed, wind direction and atmospheric stability classes appropriate for the




model region.  The influence of topographic features is generally treated by




appropriate modifications to available wind speed and direction data.   In the




present analysis, data from Newark Airport were judged to be representative




of the model  region and were used without modification.
                                     36

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      3.  Concentration Data





      Air quality measurement data must be used for validation of the model




calculations.  If it were possible to model atmospheric transport and dis-




persion processes with great reliability, it would not be necessary to




incorporate ambient atmosphere monitoring data in the model program.




However, current capabilities with models require direct comparisons of




model results with actual measurements data.  For the present study an array




of air quality monitoring data gathered by the New Jersey Department of




Health at several locations near the planning region was used as the basis




for model validation.






      4.3.2  Meteorological Data Selected for Use






      After a review of several possiblities it was determined that the




National Weather Service records for Newark Airport should be used as the




meteorological input data in this study.  The Newark Airport location is




approximately 5 km from the southwestern corner of the Meadowlands planning




region.  For determination of the influence region, the Newark wind direction




rose data for 1956-1965 were examined.  For model validation studies, the




stability wind rose data (available as output from the STAR program at the



National Climatic Center, Asheville, North Carolina)  for the Calendar Year



1970 were employed. For model projections to 1990, the STAR program clima-




tological data for the 10-year period 1956-1965 were used.  The 1956-1965



record represents the most recent, 10-year record of hourly observations




available for use in the model projections.
                                     37

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      4.3.3  Emission Data Selected for Use






      The emission data selected for use in the model study were defined




according to four geographical zones.   These zones are:





      Zone 1:      Meadowlands plan boundary




      Zone 2:      Approximately 1 mile beyond the boundary of Zone 1;




                  defined by town lines except to the south (Newark




                  and Jersey City), and includes Secaucus.





      Zone 3:      Approximately 5 miles beyond the boundary of Zone 2;




                  defined by town lines; includes Manhattan in the New




                  York part of the region.





      Zone 4:      Remaining New Jersey and  New York counties




                  in the Abatement Region (1955/1966).



       Other:      Connecticut counties in the NY-NJ-Conn. Abatement Region





These four zones are illustrated in Figure  4.  Selection rules defining




the differences in the method of treatment  of source emissions data in each



of the four zones are described in the Task 2 Report (ERT Doc. No. P-244-2).






      4.3.4  Concentration Data Selected for Use






      Sources of measured ambient air quality data evaluated during the study



included the New Jersey continuous air monitoring network (including two




major trailer sites at Newark ana Bayonne near the planning region and other




nearby satellite monitoring stations)  and the New Jersey high-volume sampler




network.  Also evaluated were data from the 38-station air quality monitor-




ing networks operated by New York City,  data obtained at Secaucus by the




U. S. Public Health Service between March 1969 and February 1970, measure-
                                     38

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NEW     Y/O  R  K
     IIUUINGTON
Figure 4   Illustration of  the  Four  Geographical Zones used in the
           Development of the Emission Inventory.
                                   39

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ments during the summer of 1966 made in support of the New York-New Jersey



Interstate Abatement Activity, and other data in southern New York and



northern New Jersey available in the National Aerometric Data Bank.



      Several types of data from these sources were employed during trial



calculations, and were examined extensively during initial validation studies.



For specific calibration of the model, it was decided to use data only of



the same type (from the New Jersey network),  and from locations nearest to




the planning region.  Therefore, data from five stations in the New Jersey



network (Newark, Bayonne, Jersey City, Hackensack and Paterson) were chosen.



Model calibration parameters were developed for summer, winter and annual



cases from these five locations.






4.4  Model Validation Procedures






      4.4.1  Objectives






      The primary objective of the validation effort was to assure that the



model adequately predicted concentration values over the time and ppace



scales of interest and over the range of expected input data values.  Vali-



dating a model implies a detailed investigation of the model results and a



comparison of those results with measured values in order to identify and



evaluate discrepancies.  If the model results compare well with the observed



data or if, for the applications to be made, simple correction factors are



deemed appropriate, the model may then be simply calibrated with the observed



data.  On the other hand, if systematic discrepancies are found, the investi-




gation may suggest alterations of model parameters or of the model mechanics




that would improve the representativeness of the model.  A  final  calibration



generally is required as the  last stage of the validation procedure to best



adjust for remaining discrepancies between observed and predicted results.





                                     40

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      4.4.2  Procedures for Validating Models






      The procedures for validating models will differ somewhat from applica-




tion to application depending upon the nature and purpose of the study and




depending upon the quality of the available data.  The validation procedure




will normally require a thorough study of the implications of model assump-




tions and the performance of "sensitivity" studies for various input para-




meters.  In this study the following sensitivity tests were carried out and




evaluated:





      1.  Inclusion of Pollutant Half Lives





      The gross effects of removal processes for gaseous pollutants can be




simulated by the inclusion of an exponential time decay term.





      2.  Refinement of Area Source Grid and Inclusion of Nearby Roadways





      Minor sources in the immediate vicinity of the sampling locations will




have a strong influence on air quality at the sampling locations and the re-




sultant measurements may not be representative of regional scale air quality.





      3.  Incorporation of the Effects of Correlation Between Diurnal




          Meteorological Variations and Pollutant Emissions Rates





      Emission rates of transportation and industrial related pollutants




are lower during nighttime hours.  Because the atmosphere is on the average




more stable at night, models that do not include diurnal variations in




source strength tend to overpredict seasonal and annual average pollutant




levels.
                                    41

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      4.  Incorporation of Effects of Correlation Between Wind Direction




          and Emission Rates





      Winter emission rates associated with space heating are expected to




be positively correlated with the cooler northerly winds.  Neglect of this




mechanism causes models to overpredict space heating-related pollutant




levels.





      5.  Modification of Dispersive Statistics





     Because of reduced evaporative cooling and increased capture of incom-




ing solar radiation in urbanized areas, thermal convection from the ground




is more vigorous than in rural areas.  In addition, because of their built-




up nature, urban areas are aerodynamically rougher than rural areas.  These




two factors cause enhanced mixing of pollutants and increased plume disper-




sion spread rates.





      6.  Modification of Assumed Mixing Depths





      For similar reasons the mean mixing depth for urban areas is expected




to be larger than that assumed for rural areas.





      7.  Modification of Airport Velocity Measurements





      Several modifications to the airport wind speed measurements are




possible:





      a.  The low level measurements of wind velocity at Newark airport




are on  the average lower than wind speeds existing at higher levels, causing




different effects on ground-level concentrations depending on source ele-




vation.





      b.  The wind speed frequency records  classify the  lowest speed cases  (calm)




as values between 0 and 3 knots  (1.54  m/s).   The average wind speed that really
                                      42

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occurs during "calm" conditions (velocities too low to be reliably read by




the anemometer) is likely to be skewed toward the 3-knot limit.





      c.  The effect of the increased "roughness" of urban areas may be




simulated by reducing wind speeds in the lower boundary layer.






      4.4.3  Modifications Made to the Model Used for the 1990 Projections






      Three fundamental criteria were used to determine which modifications




or parameter changes to incorporate in the model for the 1990 projections:




      1.  Modifications or parameter changes must be physically realistic;




thus parameters chosen must be within the range of experimentally measured




values.





      2.  Modifications or parameter changes must be appropriate for use




in the planning year 1990.





      3.  The evaluation of modifications or parameter changes must be




based primarily on their effect on the regionally averaged agreement of




calculated versus observed values, rather than on agreement for individual



stations.





      On the basis of these criteria, only changes in the meteorological



parameters were adopted in the model.  The emission rate-dependent mod-




ifications were not appropriate for the seasonal and annual average calcu-




lations, and their effects were left to be corrected by the final calibra-




tion.   The modifications incorporated for the 1990 case were:





      1.  A half-life of 3 hours was assigned to  SO- emissions.
                                     43

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      2.   Vertical spread statistics were adopted from the McElroy-Pooler




study in St. Louis .





      3.  Velocities for use in the computation of plume rise were computed




from a power law formula, recognizing the increase of velocity above the




surface level.






      4.4.4  Final Calibration of the Model






      With the parameter modifications implemented in the model,  final




validation runs were made for the five receptors for the winter,  summer



and annual cases.  The ratio of the predicted to measured concentrations was




then calculated for each station, for each season, and for each pollutant for




which data were obtained.  For the sites used in the validation, these ratios




were used as simple calibration factors.  For estimation of concentrations




at any other-location within the planning region, averages of the calibra-




tion factors for the entire region were derived and used for each pollutant.
                                    44

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             5.  OPERATIONAL FEATURES OF THE AQUIP SYSTEM SOFTWARE








5.1  Overview of the AQUIP System Software






     The software components of the AQUIP System provide the analytical tools




necessary to undertake the air pollution impact of land use plans.  The




AQUIP software system makes use of input data sets and model parameter data




sets, performs computations using four basic computer programs,  and provides




tabular and graphical outputs of the results.  The logical relationships




among these elements of the software are shown in the summary flow chart of




Figure 5. Data sets are shown as rectangles, computation steps as circles,




and printed output as document symbols.  In addition, each element is iden-




tified by a code made up of a generic letter followed by a number.  The




latter prefixes and their meanings are:





     I   -   Input data set, prepared by the system user.





     M   -   Model parameter data set, established initially for the study




             conditions, and modified only as .necessary for updates to the




             model.





     P   -   Computation step involving one of the four basic computer



             programs.





     C   -   Computed data set formed as an output of one computation step




             and used as an input to another.





     T   -   Tabulated outputs (or line printer graphics)  delivered to the




             system user.
                                    45

-------
                                                             e/1

                                                             O
                                                             C
                                                             O
                                                             •H
                                                            13
                                                             C
                                                             oj
                                                             0)
                                                            00
                                                             ni
                                                             Q
                                                             LO
                                                             3
                                                             bo
                                                             •H
                                                             a,
46

-------
     This identification procedure is used consistently in this section to




enable each element of the AQUIP System to be identified and described.  In




the following paragraphs the four principal computer programs,  which deter-




mine the overall operating modes and capabilities of the AQUIP  System,  are




discussed in terms of their specific functions,  information flows,  data




format requirements and run options.  In addition,  several of the important



points of interaction between the planner and the model are described.








5.2  Planning Inputs






     The objective of the AQUIP System is to test hypothetical  configurations




of land uses with repect to their impact upon air quality, and  to compare and




rank them in relation to one another.  The primary input to the AQUIP System




is therefore a numerical description of a land use plan.  Thus, the first ele-



ment of the AQUIP software system involves the preparation of land use  data.



Ultimately, the necessary form of the numerical description of  the plan is an




emissions inventory for input to the ERT/MARTIK diffusion modeling program.




Although the data could be prepared in this form to begin with, it  is more




practical (particularly in view of the complex nature of the emissions  pro-



jection process) to prepare the inputs in a form as close as possible to the




actual planning variables associated with the plan.



     For this reason, original land use data are prepared by the user,  working




directly from a map of the study region.  Land use activities are defined,




classified, and indicated as point, line, or area "figures" on  the  map.  Area




zones are represented as polygons (i.e., bounded by straight-line segments);




and highways are represented as connected straight-line segments.  Other
                                     47

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activities that ultimately can be represented as point emission sources
           *
(e.g., power plants) are also indicated.

     Each activity region or figure is assigned a set of activity codes and

values that define the procedures used to compute its emissions.  For

example, a residential region could be represented as a polygon and assigned

a "residential classification code" together with values that determine how

it is to be treated in computing emissions.  Geographical data for each figure

are prepared by coding the coordinates of the vertices of its boundaries.

These data are then incorporated into the "original land use data" (1-1),

together with the codes and values.  The result is a data set describing a

land use plan in terms of planning variables to which the emissions-

projection methodologies (in the LANTRAN computer program)  can be applied.

The activity codes used consist of a letter followed by two digits.   For

example, the letter R was used for residential with the first digit relating

to the appropriate land use plan and the second to the density of a particular

residential zone. Other types of land uses were treated in a similar manner.

For manufacturing, however, the letter S followed by the appropriate 2-digit

SIC code was used.

     Highways and some types of point source activities (such as power plants

and incinerators) are treated separately.  In the case of the highway data,

the geographical coordinates of the end-points of the various links are

coded, together with emissions derived by application of emissions factors

to traffic volume projections.  These data become the "highway emissions"

data set (1-2), used as a direct input to the ERT/MARTIK diffusion modeling

program.

     Similarly, the geographical coordinates which locate power plants,

incinerators, or other point-sources are coded together with direct emission
                                     48

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rates and stack parameters determined separately for each source.  These




data become the "point-source" data set (1-3), used as a direct input to




the diffusion model.








5.3  Air Quality Prediction Model






     Having prepared data sets representing the original land use data  as




described above, the computation of emissions from the coded area zone  acti-




vity data is performed by the LANTRAN program.  The computation  involves the




allocation of data defined on the set of figures to a grid-cell  system  in




order to represent the large number of small discrete sources as area sources.




Because the diffusion model requires rectangular (not necessarily square)  area




sources, LANTRAN transforms figure-based data to grid-based data.  In principle,




it is emissions defined on the figures that are allocated by LANTRAN; in fact,




the program performs one additional step:  land use data are first converted to




emissions data, which are then allocated to the grid system.  Some of the  emis-




sions data are, however,  represented in the output as points,  rather than  as




gridded area sources because:  (1) certain activities generate  point  source  emis




sions [such as schools or hosptials within residential areas);  and (2)  individual




discrete sources with emissions greater than some threshold must be  considered




separately.   The result of this computation step is the "point and gridded



area source" data set (Ol) in the form of card decks (corresponding to each




averaging period)  for use as a direct input to the diffusion model.  LANTRAN




also produces tabulated output describing  the  emissions characteristics of




the input data, and graphical  displays of  emission rates  by pollutant as




allocated to the chosen grid system.



     The next step involves the use of the ERT/MARTIK air quality prediction




model.  This model performs the essential transition  from  the emissions






                                     49

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generated by a particular land use plan to the air quality concentrations




associated with the plan.  The emissions inventory data sets,  (1-2),  (1-3)




and C-l) as described above, are input to the MARTIK program,  along with the




model data sets that define the receptor sites at which concentrations




are to be computed,  the  meteorological  parameters, and  the emissions assigned




to the "background"  region,  i.e.,  the region  outside  the plan  boundaries.



The result of this step  is a set of computed  concentrations for each pollutant,




at each of the desired receptor sites.   The MARTIK calculations define the




"computed air quality" for each appropriate seasonal  or annual  time-averaging




period.  The results are printed as a tabulated output  (T-2) and are passed




to additional  AQUIP operations as  the  data set  (C-2).




     The final step  involved in the AQUIP air quality prediction model is




the plotting of computed air pollution  concentrations using the SYMAP pro-




gram.  The result  of a SYMAP plotting run is  a graphical display (T-3) of the




study area, with printer-generated  shading proportional to the  computed con-



centration at each point.   An example of this contour map is shown in




Figure 6.  The data  used as  input  to the program  is the set of  receptor




"values" computed by MARTIK and output  as the data set  (C-2).   Data pre-



pared by the system user consists  of options  that select  the pollutant to be




displayed, and that control the appearance  of the output  map.






5.4  Air Quality Impact  Model






     The initial step in the use of the air quality impact model is the




preparation of land use and other data for correlation with air quality data.




In this step, subsets of the original  land use data are selected and processed




for correlation with the predicted air quality associated with the plan.  The




computations involved in this process are performed by the LANTRAN program.




Operation of the program is similar to its use in the preparation of  emis-




                                     50

-------
                                                            xxxxoocoaao
                                                            XXxaaOOOOQ
                                                            ^DDOOQOOa
                                                      *xxonoooo5aoog
                                                      xxnDQQDQoBoOQQ
                                                      xQjbflSSgHBgaofl
                                  flO^driDKx     = t* + t*xxxx030BwSl*||l|Hyriti
                                                  miH8*(lRB



                                                  iHBie*aBRH
                                                                                    XXXXXXO
                                                                                    xxxxxoa
                                                                                    XDQQOaD
                                       <* ^ , 1 "     5 J . n 1     5 5 ,1 -1    6^.0:    '-.5.00    70.00    T5.0P
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                                                        XX'X OUDQOOODO »^'-^eHPH-f fioUBw^PBS 
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sions data,  except that,  instead of emissions defined on a set of land use




figures, the quantities allocated are variables such as population density




and acres of industrial land use.  The result of this step is a data set,




referred to as the "correlation data set"  (C-4),  which  is  created  in the




form of an output card deck for input to the  IMPACT  program.   In addition,




grid plots of each selected land use can be generated.




     The result of a diffusion analysis with the ERT/MARTIK program is a set




of concentrations computed for the given receptor sites.  However, in order




to perform the impact analysis, these results must be converted to mean air




quality defined on the grid system chosen for analysis.  This conversion is




performed by the LANTRAN program, which constructs a mean surface through the




receptor points and then assigns to each cell of the grid system the surface




value at the cell center.   This step is necessary because  there is no direct




relationship between the spacing or distribution of receptor points and the




grid system used in the impact analysis model.  The computation step may be




performed routinely, with no interaction from the user (other than to define




the grid systemJ. The results of the air quality prediction model calculations



are contained in the data set  (C-2) produced by the ERT/MARTIK program and used




as an input to LANTRAN.  The tabulated output from LANTRAN lists the concen-




trations as allocated to each grid cell,  and a corresponding graphical output




can be generated if desired.  Output from  the program is the  gridded air




quality data set (C-3) and is used as an input to the impact  analysis




procedures.




     The final step in the AQUIP modeling system  is  the analysis of the  air




pollution impact of the original land use data.   This  step brings together




the various data sets of the system, such as  land use  data or concentrations




data, for final evaluation  and ranking of planning  alternatives.  The planner
                                     52

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.interacts directly with the AQUIP model at this point by defining the criteria




by which the plan and its alternatives are to be ranked, and by specifying




the desired set of operations to manipulate the data sets.   The planner codes




these analytical procedures into the IMPACT computer program using a simple




"hyper-language".  Any number of gridded data sets may be brought together,




and any number of new data sets can be created.  In general, the specified




analytical operations produce quantitative information for  each cell of the




grid system.  The results are tabulated and can be presented graphically as




grid plots.  Examples of the types of analyses which may be performed using




the IMPACT program include the comparison  of projected air quality with air




quality standards, the correlation of air quality data with land use data,




the display of specific land use data (for example,  the location of critical




receptors), the calculation of impact parameters,  and the calculation of




plan ranking indices.
                                    53

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  6.  EVALUATION AND RANKING OF THE HACKENSACK MEADOWLANDS LAND USE PLANS








6.1  General Air Quality Criteria for Plan Evaluation






     The basic objective of this analysis was to demonstrate the AQUIP




System methodologies for considering air pollution in the planning process




through the direct application of such methodologies to the planning alter-




natives developed for the Meadowlands.  Regional air quality concentrations




for total suspended particulates (TSP), sulfur dioxide (SO ), carbon monox-




ide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC),  and nitrogen oxides (NOy) were analyzed in




terms of annual averages and summer and winter seasonal averages.  The




analysis also included the influence of sources outside the Hackensack




Meadowland, i.e., background sources, on air quality within the planning




region.



     The evaluation of the land use plans was based primarily on the con-




siderations of:





     1.  Compliance with ambient air quality standards.





     2.  The influence of background concentrations on total air quality




         within each plan.





     3.  Average regional air quality concentration levels.





     4.  The percent variation in total air quality among the plans




         on a pollutant by pollutant basis.





     5.  Average exposures of critical receptors and land use categories




         to pollutant concentrations.





     In order to assess compliance with standards,  the calculated annual
                                    55

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average pollutant concentrations were compared with corresponding annual




average standards, or in cases where such standards do  not  exist,  with




equivalent values of ambient air quality standards  extrapolated to annual




time-averaging periods.   The standards (or their  extrapolated  equivalents)




used in this analysis are summarized in Table 1 along with  an  indication




of the method of derivation.




     A qualitative evaluation of plans was carried out by means of a visual




examination of air quality contours and the subjective correlation of such




contours with the land use categories of each plan.  A quantitative analysis




and evaluation of plans was carried out by the calculation of quantitative




measures of impact.  This quantitative evaluation was based primarily on




"averaged" impacts (such as average regional concentration levels or average




levels of exposure to specific receptors) rather than "integrated" impacts




(which are proportional to both average concentration levels and the total




number of receptors affected).




     In addition to these criteria, the evaluation of the plans was subject




to other constraints and general considerations.   In particular, the analysis




was oriented toward regional  effects based on the  calculation of mean annual




pollutant concentration levels.  The analysis considered the effects on




regional  air quality and on  critical receptors resulting primarily  from



differences among the four plans in:  (1) the percent mix of land use cate-




gories;  (2) the relative locations of land uses; and (3) the relative inten-




sity of land use activities.  The direct relationship between  pollutant concen-




trations and impacts such as health effects and socio-economic consequences




were not considered.  Moreover, the analysis did  not consider  localized or
                                    56

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                                TABLE 1

           EQUIVALENT ANNUAL AVERAGE AIR QUALITY STANDARDS
Pollutant
TSP
SO 2
CO
HC
NOX
Standard
(ug/m )
70.1
53.0
1425.0
160.0
100.0
(ppm)
-- m
0.02
1.25
0.24 <3'
0.05<3>
Derivation
From N.J. (geometric
mean) annual standard (2)
N. J. annual standard
Extrapolation from Federal 8-hour
standard using statistics from
N.J. measurements data (2)
Federal (secondary) 3-hour
standard (4)
Federal (secondary) annual
standard
(1)   Annual arithmetic mean,  never to be exceeded

(2)   Extrapolations based on  use of Larsen Model.  (Larsen,  R.I.
     "A Mathematical Model for Relating Air Quality Measurements
     to Air Quality Standards",  Office of Air Programs Publication.
     No.  AP-89,  EPA, Office of Air Programs,  Research Triangle Park,
     N.C.,  1971.)

(3)   Conversion  to  ppm not strictly possible  without specifying
     composition of pollutant:  HC is based on CH.;  NO  is  based
     on NO  .                                          x
          2
(4)   Extrapolation  of 3-hour  (6  to 9 AM)  standard to an annual
     standard  not considered  valid.
                                   57

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microscale impacts,  nor the  interrelationship between air pollution effects



and other environmental concerns  such as water quality or solid waste dis-



posal.






6.2  Summary of Land Use Plan Characteristics






     The four alternative 1990 Comprehensive Land Use Plans for the Hacken-



sack Meadowlands District analyzed  in this study are designated as:





     Plan 1  -   The Master  Plan



     Plan 1A -   Self-Supporting  New Town



     Plan IB -   Expansion of New York City Urban Core



     Plan 1C -   Trend Development  Based on Current Zoning




These plans are shown in Figures  7  through 10.  The basic data and assumptions




concerning the  land uses  for each  of the plans were  supplied by the HMDC and




were processed  and coded  for input to the AQUIP  System.   The resultant per-



cent mix of land use categories, together with population-and traffic projec-




tions for the different plans are summarized in Table 2.



     The four plans show  significant differences both  in the relative loca-



tion of land uses and  in  the percent mix of land use categories.   Plan 1,



the Master Plan, is characterized by a large amount  of open space (31%



including open  water),  a  relatively low population  (148,000), and a broad




mix of industrial and  commercial activities.  The dominant  feature of the




plan is the expansive  area  along the Hackensack  River  devoted to  parks and




conservation land.  Only  6?« of the total area is allocated  to residential



area, which consists mostly  of very high density island high-rise apartments and



parkside residential areas located  at points within this open space region.
                                    58

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        4520
        45 l6
                    4-      4
                    4       -f       4-       4      4
            572     573     574     575     576     577  "   578   "  579     580     581      582     583    584
                        —•""!  Manufacturing




                       \ ', ^ \  Parks



                       • >, ' '.M
                       - ; I  A  Conservation
                       *lil—J



                       ;^^^  Low Density Residential (10 Du)




                           j  Island Residential (5O Du}




                           1  Parkside Residential 150 Du)




                       	_-J  Special Uses
                            Mass Transit and Commuter Railroad

                            Turnpike and Limited Access
O [y/'/^'j Cultural Cente
  Hjjjjjll Transportation Center




  ^^^ Research




  /- ,'j Commercial Recreation



  ^HHS
  ^S^d Hotel-Office-Highway Commercial
Figure   7     Alternative  Meadowlands  Land  Use  Plan  No.   l--The  Master  Plan
                                                          59

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45 l9
45 l4
45 1J
45"
    572    573     574     575     576     577
                                                       579     580    581    582     583    584
            F^1^ J~\ Manufacturing                  O [/'*';''vl Cultural Center


            \ ^--' \w' \ '] Parks                        • fo^W Business District


            iv'::"."*;"/;'i Low Density Residential (10 Du)      \      \ Wafer


            [       \ Medium Dens/ty Residential (2O Du)          \ Commercial Recreation


                    High Density Residential fSO Du}      ||nTJfTj|j|j|| Hotel-Office-Highway Commercia'


            p- '---- l] Special Uses                          Distribution



            — — _— Turnpike and Limited Access
   Figure  8       Alternative  Meadowlands  Land  Use Plan No.  1A-
                                      Self-Supporting  New  Town
                                               60

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 45 '"
 45' '
    572    573     574     575    576    577    578    579    580    581    582     583    584
            k"—~~Z- j Manufacturing



            \ l'^S~ jl parks


            yl/////////k Low Density Residential (10 Du)


                   I Medium Density Restdenha/ {3ODu}


                    High Osns/fy Residential (5O Du)


            \- ~"~\ Other Uses
            	Mass Transit
            	Turnpike and Limited Access
O [   ,-''j Cultural Center


•      Business D>stnct
      j Commercial Recreation



  iS^ii Hotel-Office-Highway Commercial


       Distribution
Figure  9      Alternative  Meadowlands  Land  Use  Plan  No.  IB-
                       Expansion of  New  York  City Urban  Core
                                               61

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   572    573    574    575    576    571    *i7Q    579    580    581     582    583     584
            —   Manufacturing



            '>'','] Parks



            'ft/'/A i-OM Density Residential
            (luUA


            ffl|jjj| Transportation Center



            	Turnpike and Limited Access
\ Water



 Hotel-Office-Highway Commercial



 Commercial Recreation
Figure  10     Alternative Meadowlands  Land  Use Plan  No.  1C-
                   Trend  Development Based  on  Current  Zoning
                                         62

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                                 TABLE 2

                    SUMMARY  OF  LAND  USE  INFORMATION FOR
                        HACKENSACK MEADOWLANDS  PLANS
Land Use Categories
Residential/ *
10 DU/AC (dwelling units/acre)
20 DU/AC
30 DU/AC
50 DU/AC
80 DU/AC
TOTAL
Commercial § Industrial
Commercial
i Manufacturing (light § heavy)
Research
Distribution
Special Use
Airport § Transportation Center
TOTAL
Open Space
Water
Parks § Conservation
TOTAL
Other(1^
Highway fj Railroad
Special
TOTAL
TOTAL LAND AREA
(19,600 acres)
m
Total Population^ J
f21
Total Students1- '
Total VMT/Year (xlO6) ^

Percent of Total Plan Area
Plan: 1
1
5
6
4
8
8
22
1
5
48
11
20
31
12
3
15
100%
147,604
25,758
1,040
1A
2
7
8
17
4
14
0
19
0
4
41
7
11
18
21
3
24
100%
408,080
59,689
1,405
IB
1
5
15
21
3
15
0
22
0
4
44
7
11
18
15
2
17
100%
1C
1
1
1
18
0
50
0
4
73
7
2
9
14
3
17
100%
469,788 8,161
114,647 0
1,515 970
(1)   As  coded  from  land use maps  --  figures used may  not  correspond  exactly
     with  original  estimates  given by  the  HMDC.
(2)   As  computed  from land use data.
(3)   Totals  include the regional  network traffic of 930x10   VMT:  in  addition,
     4x10" hrs. idling/yr. are assumed for parking  lots  for  all  plans.
                                    63

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The business  and commercial activities are located primarily in the central



region of the meadowlands west of the Hackensack River.  Industrial activi-



ties (i.e., manufacturing, 8%, and distribution, 22%) are largely located in



the eastern half of the region,  although a sizable area (8%)  devoted to




research industry is located along the western border of the district.  Plan




1 also includes various modes of public transportation, including novel means




of waterborne transit, as well as new roadways.   Arterials servicing the



high density residential areas are located to minimize local  surface street




traffic.




     In contrast,  Plan 1A., the Self-Contained New Town, is characterized




by a higher population (408,000), greater residential area (17%), and less




open space (18%).   The open space areas are predominantly located on the



fringes of residential areas, acting as buffers  to surrounding industrial



areas.  The primary commercial and industrial land use activities are devoted




to manufacturing (14%) and distribution (19%).  A significant feature of this



plan is that essentially all of the population is located within the central




portion of the planning region,  spread from west to east, with low density



areas in the west and extremely high density areas in the east.  Furthermore,



nearly all manufacturing activity is located in the southern portion of the



planning region,  while distribution activities are located in both the eastern



portion of the region and in the vicinity of Teterboro airport.  Character-




istically, major access roadways are on the fringe of the residential areas




to reduce surface street traffic.  Since it is assumed that employment will




be served mostly by local population, and that most of the journey to work



trips will be served by the local roadway system, a significantly high per-



centage of land use is devoted to highways (21%).  Moreover,  no rapid transit
                                   64

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is indicated in the plan.  Consequently, the total miles of vehicular traffic




projected for this  plan  (1.4 billion VMT/year) reflects both the  higher pop-




ulation and the increased  levels of local traffic.



     Plan IB, the New  York City Urban Core Expansion,  is nearly identical




to Plan 1A in percent mix of land use categories but has a significantly




different location of these land use activities within the planning region.




The primary difference is that nearly all residential area  (21%) is located




in the western part of the district;  and while Plan 1A has areas of low and




extremely high density dwelling units, Plan IB has mostly intermediate density




areas.  The eastern portion of the Meadowlands is predominantly devoted to




commercial and industrial land use activities.  Manufacturing (15%) is widely




dispersed, being located mostly in the southern and northeastern portions of




the district.  Distribution (22%)  is  similarly dispersed widely throughout




the region.  Again, as in Plan 1A, open space is used as a buffer between




residential and industrial areas,  and to expand the open space along the




river.  Plan IB has the largest projected population (nearly 470,000) and the




largest projected amount  of traffic (over 1.5 billion VMT/year) of the four




plans.  Because of its planned close  relationship to the New York City urban




core, this plan also contains  a substantial amount of rapid transit and com-




muter railroads in  addition to new arterials to serve the residential areas.




     Plan 1C, the Trending of  Current Zoning, is significantly different




from the other three plans in  the percent mix of land uses.  It contains




less than 1% residential area  (to serve a projected population of approxi-




mately 8,000), while having little open space (9%) except for that associated




with open water. Most of the  region  is devoted to commercial and industrial




activities (73%), primarily distribution (50%).   Industrial areas (18%)  were
                                   65

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allocated by the HMDC to 10-acre plots.  Furthermore, because of the low




population, this plan also has the lowest projected traffic (0.97 billion



VMT/year), reflecting primarily the regional network traffic.






6.3  Results of the Air Quality Analysis






     The principal results of the analysis,  evaluation and ranking of these




plans are summarized in the following paragraphs.





     1.  Annual average ambient air quality  standards are met for the 1990




time period in all four plans for the Hackensack Meadowlands  region for




three pollutants: SO-, CO, and NO...  Annual  average ambient air quality




standards are exceeded for 1990 in all four  plans  for two pollutants:




TSP and HC.  The analysis also indicates that  the  projected background




concentration levels for both TSP and HC exceed ambient air quality




standards in 1990.




     2.  Analysis of the air quality of plans  on  the basis of individual




pollutants indicates that:




         a.  For TSP, maximum  concentrations  exceed the standard in all



             four plans by a factor of approximately 2.5.  Thus, air quality




             for TSP is a critical problem and must be of concern to the planner.




         b.  For S0_, maximum  concentrations  are  on the order of 55 to
                 of the standard.  Furthermore, the variation among plans




             in impact on average regional air quality is less than 15%.



             Thus air quality for S0? is not a major problem and the



             planner can be neutral (relative to regional air quality



             criteria) in choosing among the four plans.
                                    66

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         c.  Air quality for CO is of major concern within Plan IB, for




             which the maximum concentration is approximately 90% of the




             standard.  Because maximum concentrations are less than 70%




             of the standard and variation in  impact  on average regional




             air quality is approximately 4%, the planner can be neutral




             in choosing among the remaining three plans.



         d.  For HC. maximum concentrations  exceed the  standard in all




             four plans by a factor of approximately 12,  This is a




             critical problem and must be of concern to the planner.




         e.  For NO , maximum concentrations are  on the order of 65% of
                   A,


             the standard, and variation  in  impact on average regional




             air quality is approximately 7%.  Thus, air quality for NO
                                                                       X.


             is not a major problem and the planner can be neutral in choosing



             among the four plans.





     3.  Analysis of the total  regional air pollutant  concentration levels




and spatial patterns for the four  alternative plans shows a significant




variation (up to 15%)  among plans  for  all  pollutants except hydrocarbons.




The quantitative ranking of plans  in terms of the multipollutant  impact



on total regional air quality indicates that  Plan  1 is best (that  is,



produces least average regional concentration levels), followed by  Plans



IB, 1A and 1C,  respectively.





     4.  The corresponding analysis of the impact resulting  from regional




air quality concentration levels and spatial patterns  on sensitive cate-




gories of land uses and receptors (primarily population)  shows a significant




variation in impact among the four alternative  land use plans.   A quantita-




tive ranking of the alternative plans  based  on  consideration of a number
                                   67

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of impact measures indicates that Plan 1 Is best  (that is, has the  least




average exposure to the specified classes of receptors), followed by  Plans




IB, 1A, and 1C, respectively.




     5.  Background air quality revels represent a major influence  on




total air quality levels within the Hackensack Meadowlands planning region.




Background air quality accounts for between 65% and 99% of total concentra-




tion levels within the planning region and completely dominates the spatial




patterns of total air quality concentrations.  The background air quality




contours for all pollutants show a north-south orientation with concentra-




tions increasing from west to east.  This pattern of concentrations shows




both the strong influence of pollution from the New York City urban core




on Hackensack Meadowlands  air quality levels.  Because of these factors,




a significant spatial variation in background air quality levels occurs




over the Hackensack Meadowlands region.  Consequently, the relative  location




of land use activities becomes  a significant factor in minimizing  the




contribution of the specific plan to regional air quality levels and in



minimizing the impact of the resultant regional air quality levels  on




specific receptors and land use categories.




      6.   Because background concentrations represent  such a high percentage




 of total  air quality within the Meadowlands for any given plan,  the resultant




 variation among plans in  total air  quality necessarily will  be small.




 For example the maximum observed variations among the four plans in average




 regional  air quality occurs for SO  and is less than 15%.   As a consequence




 land use  planning may be regarded as an ineffective means for abatement




 of regional air pollution in the vicinity of major urbanized areas unless
                                   68

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the planning region is sufficiently large that "background"  concentration



levels represent only a small percentage  (for example, less  than  50%)  of



total air quality levels.



     7.  Analysis of the impact resulting from the  alternative  land use



plans on regional air pollutant  concentration levels and spatial  patterns



shows significant variations among plans due to:   (1) the percent mix  of



land use categories;  (2) the relative  location of  land use categories;  and



(3) the relative density or intensity  of land use  activities.   The  observed



variations in regional air  pollutant concentration levels and spatial patterns



are found to be extremely sensitive to the percent  mix of manufacturing



and transportation related land use activities.  Manufacturing  influences


primarily TSP, SO  and NO  concentrations, while transportation
                 Z       A


activities influence the CO concentrations.  As a consequence, these  land



use categories should be located within a plan relative to the spatial



patterns of background concentration levels in order to minimize net impact



on total regional air quality levels.



     8.  In the Hackensack  Meadowlands planning region, all land use activities



other than manufacturing and  transportation have a negligible impact on re-



gional air quality levels and spatial  patterns and therefore can be located



within a particular plan rather  arbitrarily to provide minimum impact to



specific critical receptors and land use categories.   Because  the degree of



impact on critical  receptors  is  especially sensitive to the relative location



of the receptors within the plan,  the  relative location of critical receptors



and land use categories represents an  extremely important consideration in



the formulation and evaluation of land use plans.  For example, it is observed



that those plans which rank best in terms of population exposure have resi-
                                    69

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dential areas predominantly located  in the western portions  of the Hackensack



Meadowlands planning region where concentrations generally are at their



lowest levels.



     9.  Regional  air quality is  relatively insensitive  to the amount of




open space within  any of the four plans.  A direct tradeoff from manufacturing



to open space land use for example,  would be highly beneficial to regional air




quality levels, not because of the addition of open space  within the plan,



but rather because of the deletion of manufacturing land uses.




    10.  The analysis of regional scale air quality considerations is not



sufficient to assess raicroscale impacts (that is, variations in concentrations




over short distances and short time  periods).  Consequently, caution is




urged  in interpreting results of regional air quality impact analyses.  Such




analyses will indicate which choice  of a land use plan minimizes the impact




on regional  air quality levels and on critical receptors,  but may not



indicate the existence of, nor provide a solution to microscale impact



problems.
                                    70

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                         7. PLANNING GUIDELINES








7.1  Introduction






     A set of guidelines that can be generally applied to the land use




and transportation planning process for the consideration of air pollution




were derived from the results of the Hackensack Meadowlands air pollution




study.  Consequently, these guidelines should be applied to other planning




situations only for the consideration of regional scale air quality.



     Furthermore, because these guidelines are necessarily based on the




specific plan characteristics and assumptions for the Meadowlands, some of




the quantitative conclusions tend to be less generally applicable to  other




plans and planning situations.  Most of the guidelines, however, are  given




in the form of qualitative statements of broadly applicable results.




     The resultant planning guidelines describe the basic relationships




between air pollution considerations and their impact on land use planning




in three areas.   The first is background air quality, which is shown  to be



of paramount concern in plan design, especially in urban regions.  The




second is the effect of the primary plan design factors that influence




regional air pollutant concentrations and spatial patterns: (1) the mix of




land use categories; (2)  the location of land use categories within the



planning region; and (3)  the intensity of land use activities.  Third are




the topography and meteorology of the region, which should play an important




part in the consideration of air pollution by the planner.
                                    71

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7.2  Effect of Background Sources on Air Quality






     If the background levels of pollution are high within a planning area,




as is usually the case in urban regions, then the potential air pollution re-




sulting from the planning area by itself may be only a small percent of the




total air pollution.   As a result, land use planning may not be an effective




means of reducing regional air pollution levels.  However, because the actual




concentrations resulting from the plan itself may be large, selection of a land




use plan to minimize air pollution levels in the planning area is critically




important.




     If the spatial variations in background concentration patterns are




significant, then it is essential to locate carefully land use activities




relative to such concentration patterns:





     1.  To meet ambient air quality standards.




     2.  To reduce the net regional pollutant concentrations.




     3.  To reduce the net impact of regional air pollution on critical




         receptors, such as elementary schools, parks, playgrounds, nursing



         homes, and hospitals.





     Low background pollutant concentrations within a planning area may



occur in two ways.  First, the planning area may be located within a non-




urbanized or non-industrialized area; and secondly, the planning area itself




may encompass a sufficiently large portion of the urban region so that the




relative influence of background concentrations is low.  The result, in




either case, is that the percent variation among alternative land use plans




may be relatively large.  Under such circumstances, land use planning can




be effective in reducing regional pollutant concentration levels.  From an




alternative viewpoint, in regions having low background levels the planner






                                   72

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has a greater degree of freedom in plan design to consider factors other
than air pollution because potentially the region can tolerate larger
pollutant levels from the plan without exceeding standards.   Therefore,  air
pollution should be an important consideration in the land use planning
process for regions having low background concentration levels.
     As a consequence of observations based on the Meadowlands study it  is
concluded that:
     1.  If total air pollutant concentration levels do not  exceed ambient
         air quality standards and if variation in impact  from alternative
         plans on total air quality is under 15% (an arbitrary but conser-
         vative  figure), then the planner can be neutral in  his choice of
         a plan  with respect to regional  air quality considerations.  That
         is, if  necessary, he can give greater weight to planning consider-
         ations  other than air pollution  in the selection  of land use plans.
     2.  If background air pollutant concentration levels  represent greater
         than 60 to 70% of the total concentration levels, then land use
         planning is not an effective means for the abatement of regional
         air pollution problems.
     3.  Where feasible, the extent of the planning region should be
         chosen  such that background concentration levels  represent less
         than 30 to 40% of the total concentration levels in order to assure
         that land use planning will be an effective means for the abate-
         ment of regional air pollution problems.
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7.3  Effect of Plan Design Factors on Air Quality





     Based on the results of the Hackensack Meadowlands air pollution study,



it is concluded that the plan design factors that have primary influence



on regional air pollutant concentrations and spatial patterns are the mix,



location, and intensity of land use activities.





     7.3.1  Mix of Land Uses





     The land use category designated as "Manufacturing" has the dominant



influence on TSP, SO ,  and NO  concentration levels and patterns.
                    2        A


In fact, the emissions  from this land use category are a factor of from



10 to 1000 times greater than those from all other land use categories



if examined on a basis  of emissions per unit of lanH area.   Motor vehicular



traffic is a dominant influence on CO concentration levels  and patterns.



Over 90% of the CO emissions result from motor vehicle traffic, airport



operations, and other transportation-related land use activities.



     Consequently, regional air quality is highly sensitive to the amount



of manufacturing and transportation-related land use categories and is



relatively insensitive  to nearly all other land use categories.  The rela-



tive sensitivity factors for each of the different land use categories are



listed in Table 3, which shows the annual emissions per unit land area



(or per unit activity where appropriate, such as emissions  per VMT for


motor vehicular traffic, or emissions per hour of idling for parking lot



situations) as derived from planning assumptions specifically for the



Meadowlands land use plans.  These sensitivities differ by pollutant as well



as by land use category.
                                    74

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                                     TABLE 3

                 SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED 1990 ANNUAL EMISSION RATES
                  FOR HACKENSACK MEADOWLANDS LAND USE CATEGORIES

Land Use Category
Residential^ '
10 Dwelling units/acre
20
30
50
80 " " "
Commercial 5 Industrial
Commercial
Manufacturing
Light
Heavy
Research
Distribution
Special Use
C 7^
Airport ^J
Transport Center
Cultural Center
Open Space

Other (3)
Highway (lb/106 VMT1
Parking Lots (lb/10 hrs idling)
Pollutant Emissions
(Ib/year/acre)
TSP
29
180
180
250
200
60
1100
5400
2
60
60
100
180
45
0
so2
1
120
120
160
140
45
1100
5400
15
45
45
1000
130
35
0
CO
30
4
4
5
4
1
10
60
1
1
1
3000
2
1
0
HC
12
54
54
75
63
12
140
900
5
12
12
350
36
9
0
NO
X
75
85
85
120
100
95
850
5400
35
95
95
100
300
70
0
Emission Factors
700
4
400
4
11000
12
1000
3
1500
1
(1)  The particular numbers for residential emissions are a function of
    type of fuel assumed for the Hackensack Meadowlands by building type
    (single family versus high rise),  the size of dwelling units as they
    vary with density and building type,  and the efficiencies of central
    heating systems in addition to density. For example the numbers for
    10 dwelling units/acre for the Meadowlands are radically different
    from the others because this is the only residential category assumed
    to be single family and to use natural gas as a fuel.

(2)  Assumes 400,000 flights/year from Teterboro Airport, and 700 acre area.

(3)  Activities are not specified on basis of emissions/unit area.
                                          75

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     It can be concluded on the basis of differences in these sensitivity




factors that open space is not a dominant influence on regional air quality




levels.  Rather, regional air quality is far more sensitive to land use




categories having large emission rates.   A direct trade off between manufac-




turing and open space land use, for example,  would be highly beneficial to




regional air quality levels, not because of the  addition of open space within




the land use plan, but rather because of the deletion of manufacturing.






     7.3.2  Location of Land Uses






     The location of land use categories is a second major  factor  in determin-




ing regional air quality patterns except when background concentrations are




high relative to those resulting from the plan alone.  However,  because critical




receptors are always exposed to total air quality levels (i.e.,  plan plus




background contributions), the location  of land  uses within the plan will




always have a major influence on receptor impacts, especially if background




concentration levels are high and have a significant degree of spatial vari-




ation.



     Primary attention should be devoted to the  location of the dominant land



use emission sources within the planning area relative to background con-




centration levels and patterns  (especially where large variations  in back-




ground levels and patterns  occur  within the planning region) to assure




compliance with appropriate  standards.   Dispersal of large individual emis-




sion sources (e.g., power plants  or  incinerators) may eliminate localized




problems or "hot spots", but will  not especially reduce average ground level




concentrations  throughout a region.  Land use categories that are not especi-




ally sensitive to the effects  of  air pollution  should be located in regions
                                     76

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of higher background concentration levels in preference to those land use




categories that are more sensitive to the effects of air pollution.   In




general, the latter should be located in regions of lower background concen-




trations to the greatest extent possible.




     Land uses other than those few having very high emission rates can be




located rather arbitrarily within the planning region without significantly




affecting the air quality concentration levels and patterns on a regional




scale.  Thus, in general, the planner can locate critical receptors within




the plan without causing any significant impact on regional air quality




levels in order to reduce the air pollution impact on these critical recep-




tors and land use activities.




     Land use activities are usually interrelated and cannot be located




independently nor without the consideration of emissions associated with




such interrelated activities.  For example, although residential areas,




commercial areas, and other centers of social and occupational activity




generally produce very low emissions directly, the placement of such activi-




ties will generate motor vehicle traffic, which in turn will influence con-




centration levels and patterns for CO and other automobile-related pollutants.



     Finally, the location of land use categories, particularly those having



large emissions, can also benefit regional air quality concentration levels.




By dispersing such land use activities throughout the plan (rather than




concentrating such activities within a single region)  lower average regional




air pollutant concentration levels can be achieved for planning alternatives




having similar mixes of land use categories.  In effect, such dispersal of




large emission sources results in a larger effective mixing volume for the




pollutants, leading to lower average regional concentration levels.
                                     77

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     7.3.3  Intensity of Land Use






     Intensity of land use, the third important plan design factor,  refers



either to the fraction of acres of land use per acre of land area,  or to the



actual density of land use activities such as population density or residential



dwelling units per acre.



     For major* emission sources intensity can have a very significant impact



on regional air quality concentration levels, since air quality concentra-



tions are proportional to the total amount of manufacturing activity or to



total vehicle trip miles.  The data in Table 3 again indicates the  sensitivity



of regional air quality to levels of land use intensity.  In general, intensity



of land use will have a minor impact on regional air quality in comparison to



the impact of the mix and location of land use categories.  The primary im-



pact of variations in land use intensity will occur in terms of the impact



of pollutant levels on specific receptors primarily as a result of  limiting



the number of receptors effected within the plan or within a specific region



of the plan.





7.4  Effects of Topography and Meteorology on Air Quality





     Local topography and meteorological conditions have a major influence



upon air quality patterns.  With careful consideration of these factors the



planner can enhance air quality within a region through appropriate plan




designs.
                                     78

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     7.4.1  Topography






     Table 4 summarizes some of the principal effects of topography upon




air quality patterns.  Air quality patterns in planning areas that are




relatively flat and homogeneous, such as the Hackensack Meadowlands, are




not significantly influenced by the conditions described in this table.




     The local variation in surface roughness associated with development




plans (i.e., buildings, roadway rights-of-way, etc.) will be more important




than natural topography in determining microscale features in air quality




patterns.  Thus, the results of the Meadowlands study are generally applic-



able to other planning areas that have relatively flat and homogeneous




terrain.  On the other hand, the results of the present study are not con-




sidered to be representative of regions having highly variable or unusual




terrain.






     7.4.2  Meteorological Effects






     The four basic meteorological effects upon air quality levels are:




(1) advection, related to wind speed and direction;  (2)  diffusion,  re-




lated to atmospheric turbulence levels; (3) transformation of pollutants,



related to humidity, available sunlight and the presence of other substances;




and (4)  removal of pollutants, related to pollutant characteristics,  pre-



cipitation and other factors not yet well understood.




     In regional scale planning studies where the long time average concen-




tration profiles (i.e., seasonal and annual averages) are of primary con-




cern, the most important meteorological information is contained in the




long period climatological records available for the region.  For evaluation




of seasonal and annual averages the following review of climatological  data




is suggested:






                                    79

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                                TABLE  4

         PRINCIPAL EFFECTS OF  TOPOGRAPHY  UPON AIR QUALITY PATTERNS
         Topographic Feature
              Effects
1.   Elevated regions
a.  Increased wind speed (and in-
    creased ventilation) over hill
    tops.

b.  Occasional impacting of eleva-
    ted plumes on ground level.
2.   Deep valleys
a.  Channeling of wind flow along
    the valley axis, resulting in
    higher average concentrations
    in the valley.

b.  Development of stable, drainage
    winds during calm, nighttime
    conditions, resulting in higher
    concentrations along the valley
    floor.
3.   Undulating regions
                                      b.
    Increased atmospheric turbulence
    near the ground level during
    times of moderate or strong
    winds.  This results in lower
    pollutant concentrations at
    locations near sources.

    Accumulation of pollutants in
    low spots during calm, nighttime
    conditions (i.e., localized
    drainage wind conditions).
4.   Regions of tree cover
                                      b.
    Enhanced turbulence near the
    ground during moderate or strong
    winds, resulting in lower concen-
    trations for locations near
    sources.

    In fully covered regions, block-
    age of elevated plumes, result-
    ing in lower concentrations at
    ground level.
 5.    Bodies  of  water
 a.  Increased moisture content in
     the local atmosphere,  favoring
     fog formation at low-lying spots,
     and affecting the removal  rate
     of S02 and other pollutants from
     the atmosphere.

 b.  For larger bodies of water,
     formation of local circulation
     (lake and sea breezes) which can
     cause ground level fumigation on
     the landward side of sources,
     during sunny daytime conditions.
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     1.  Stability Wind Rose Data





         This information is used for the model input data relative to




distributions of wind speed, wind direction and stability categories. The




climatological data should be representative of the planning area.  In




situations where the terrain is significantly different in the planning




area compared to the nearest meteorological observing station, the climato-




logical records must be used with reservation, or must be modified to re-




flect conditions known to exist in the planning area.







     2.  Mixing Depth Climatology





         Holzworth  has summarized mixing depth information for all of the




contiguous United States.  Low mixing depths, e.g., daytime depths less




than 500 meters, result in elevated concentration levels throughout the




planning region, because the normal vertical diffusion of pollutants is




inhibited.  Most air pollution episodes occur during periods when low mix-




ing depths persist for two or more days.   Although such episodes can occur




during any time of the year, the frequency of such episodes is greatest




during the autumn months in the northeastern coastal regions of the United



States.




         Although the principal focus of these guidelines is the regional




scale, some general comments about localized air pollution impact can be



added.  Two important cases are:  (1) large, isolated sources with tall




stacks; and (2) ground level sources, such as highways.
                                    81

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     Large volume sources with tall  stacks will produce maximum ground level



concentrations at distances of from  10 to 40 stack heights downwind.   The




effective range of significant impact  from such a stack depends on stack




height,  mixing depth, wind speed,  and  other meteorological conditions, but




for general plan estimation purposes the effective radius of influence can




be considered to be approximately  three times the distance between the source




and the point of maximum ground level  concentration.




     In the case of highways,  emissions occur at near-ground level, and maxi-




mum concentrations occur in the immediate vicinity of the roadway.  Maximum



concentrations may occur either within the roadway (especially for wide



roadways) or within the first  20 meters from the edge of the roadway.   The




rate of decrease in concentration  levels is large for such sources. Concen-



trations from roadways commonly are  reduced to 10% of maximum concentration




levels (in the absence of background), within a distance of 100 to 500 meters



from the roadway edge, depending largely on local structures and terrain.




Therefore buffer zones (where  no other sources occur  and where public  access



is limited) are particularly effective for minimizing impact from such sources,



     The consideration of meteorology is critically important in the analysis




of air pollution consequences  of land  use plans.  Although generally speaking



lower total emissions for a plan will  result in lower total concentrations



within the planning region, it is  important to evaluate and rank plans on



the basis of pollutant concentrations  rather than emissions for several



reasons:






     1.   Air  quality  standards and health effects are related to concen-




         tration levels.
                                    82

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     2.   Meteorological conditions are critical in determining the  capacity




         of a region to assimilate local source emissions  (that  is,  to




         determine conditions under which planned land use developments




         will exceed or comply with national ambient air quality standards).





     3.   Meteorology is critical in determining levels of background pollu-




         tant concentration transported into and out of the planning region.








7.5  Limitations of Regional Air Quality Considerations






     These suggested planning guidelines are convenient for making broad




planning estimates; for example, in developing  basic  concepts  for plan design.




It is totally unwarranted,  however,  to assume that these guidelines  are




sufficiently accurate to form the basis for  planning  decisions in any




planning situation.  The level of detail and accuracy required for decision-




making can be obtained only by the detailed  analysis  and evaluation  of plans




through use of the AQUIP System.




     In addition,  these guidelines,   which were derived from regional  scale




analytical results, are not applicable to the consideration of highly



localized (i.e., microscale) effects.   For example, CO air quality over short




time periods and small distances is  more likely to be determined  by  loca-



lized influences,  such as peak-hour  traffic,  buildups of concentrations due




to the layout or structure  of facilities, or to short-term extremes  in




meteorological conditions.   Thus, even though regional air quality concen-




trations and impacts may be minor, there may be serious localized pollution




problems.
                                    83

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      Finally, it must be cautioned that advice  concerning the role of air




pollution considerations within the land use planning  process is not parti-




cularly simple to give nor easy to apply: the planner  must accommodate many




other issues and concerns; he is confronted with numerous constraints ranging




from financial resources to social and political attitudes;  information upon




which to judge the costs, benefits, and other impacts  of alternatives is




usually inadequate; and the administrative and legal difficulties of imple-




menting proposed plans  can be severe.  Futhermore, it is not usually the




primary concern of land use planning to assume the burden of abatement of




existing regional and  local air pollution problems; this is more appropri-




ately the function of governmental air pollution  control agencies.  Rather,




the primary objective of  considering air pollution in the land use planning




process is to augment existing air pollution control measures through appro-




priate planning measures  in order to prevent conditions from occurring in the




long-term that would necessitate severe source emission control regulations.




The guidelines presented  in this document represent considerations concerning



air pollution that are  appropriate within the planning process to improve




region-wide air quality and to reduce the exposure of  the general population




(as well as high-risk groups within the general  population)  to high pollutant




concentrations.
                                    84

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                     8.  CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS








       In this Summary Report the basic results of this research effort have




been described in brief.  Overall the work has focused on developing method-




ologies for incorporating air pollution into the planning process, applying




these  methodologies to specific land use plans for the Hackensack Meadow-




lands, and deriving general planning guidelines from the results.  The




specific conclusions resulting from each of these efforts have been described




in the above sections and are too numerous to summarize conveniently without




extensive repetition of  text.  Rather, this section enumerates the most  im-




portant end results from this research and development effort, and discusses



the general applicability of these methodologies and results to other plan-




ning situations.  Finally, a number of recommendations are  listed which




indicate the direction that future research and development efforts should




take in order to further promote the development of methodologies and analy-




tical  tools for the consideration of air pollution in the planning process.








8.1  Review of Major Accomplishments






     As  a  direct  consequence  of this  study  effort, a number of important




advances  have  been made  in  the  consideration of air pollution  in the land



use and transportation planning process.   Among  the more  significant  of




these are the  following:





      1.  Analytical tools  have been developed that allow the  planner




         to assess  air  quality associated with land use  planning altern-




         atives primarily  on the basis of the use of planning input data.
                                    85

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      2.   Detailed  procedures  have been developed  for the use of such




          analytical  tools  for incorporating  air pollution  considerations




          directly  into  the planning  process.





      3.   The use and utility  of  these procedures  and analytical tools




          have been demonstrated  by application to the  evaluation  of the




          Hackensack  Meadowlands  land use  plans; the procedures developed




          are operational tools for application to actual planning situa-




          tions.





      4.   The AQUIP System  software has been  implemented on computer




          facilities  of  the New Jersey Department  of Environmental Pro-




          tection,  and represents a demonstrated operational working




          tool for  use by planners and air pollution control officials




          alike.





      5.   A set of  planning guidelines of  broad applicability to other




          similar planning  situations has  been derived  from air quality



          analysis  of the Hackensack  Meadowlands land use plans.





      Because every attempt has been  made  to  incorporate state-of-the-art




technology in the development  of  these procedures  and analytical tools,




it is worthwhile to enumerate briefly some of their more  significant  fea-




tures .




     The  AQUIP System is the first tool that  permits the use of planning




data as a direct input to the  assessment of air pollution associated with




land use  plans.  Because the planner  must  also make use of  types of data




that he does not normally deal with  in  the planning process, he may at




times not be able to  specify all  the  data  required. Through the use  of  a



conversion factors  catalogue and  sets of default parameters incorporated






                                     86

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into the AQUIP System software, the planner can run the programs despite




problems associated with missing or unavailable data.  Moreover, the pro-



grams are designed to permit easy modification of input data so that as missing




data become available (or as better estimates of data, such as emission fac-




tors, are made), they can be inserted to update the air pollution analysis.




Although the initialization of the data base is a large undertaking, incre-




mental changes to the data base are simple and quick to perform.  Consequently,




modifications to portions of a plan can be evaluated rapidly and without




major revisions to the entire data base.




     The AQUIP System represents a land use planning tool that can




represent all source geometries in the analysis of air quality.  In




particular the air quality projection model can treat directly point, line




and area sources which can be located at ground level or at any desired ele-




vation.  Thus the planner has complete flexibility in the use of the model




to represent comprehensive plans including both transportation activities




(line sources) and land use activities (point and area sources).  The




AQUIP System permits the direct input of land use data which can be repre-




sented by points, lines or area figures.  The lines must be straight-line




segments, but can consist of an arbitrary number of links, for example, to



represent roadway systems; the area figures must be polygons, that is,




the boundaries of areas must be represented by straight-line segments.



     The AQUIP System is the first planning tool  to have the capability to




automatically allocate emissions from these "figure-based" input to "grid-




based" data sets.   Through this feature of the AQUIP  System,  emissions can




allocated to any arbitrary rectangular grid system specified by the user.




Furthermore, any data, e.g., population, specified in terms of the input



source geometries can be allocated to the specified grid system.
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     The ERT/MARTIK air quality projection model incorporates many features




that represent improvements over similar gaussian diffusion models such




as the AQDM.   These features and modifications contribute to improved




accuracies  in computing concentrations at short distances from sources




and to the  significant reduction of running times of programs on digital




computers.  Additionally, the model has been adapted to fit computers with




core capacities as small as 55,000 bytes.



     This study represents the first effort to apply  quantitative multi-




pollutant ranking indices for the evaluation and ranking of land use plans




in terms of air quality criteria.  It also represents the first effort to




develop quantitative multipollutant ranking indices that explicitly take




into account the effects of air pollution on specific receptors, including




land use categories within the plan.



     Finally,  the AQUIP System has the feature of providing a computer




routine capable of calculating numerous desired air quality impact




parameters as  specified by the planner.   Such computations may involve correla-




tions between land use data and air quality data, or comparisons with speci-



fied criteria such as ambient air quality standards.






8.2  General Applicability of the Results






      The AQUIP System of procedures and software has been designed to be




applied to  the analysis of regional scale air quality associated with land




use and transportation planning  alternatives.  Because a major objective  of




the study was to apply these procedures to the evaluation of ranking of




the four Hackensack Meadowlands  land use plans, the programmed computation




routines and the data sets are in large part based on the characteristics




of these plans and the planning  assumptions of the Hackensack Meadowlands
                                     88

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Commission.  In order to be applied to new planning developments, some new




computation routines would have to be written to reflect the appropriate




planning assumptions.




      In programming the AQUIP System software,  however, a deliberate attempt




was made to maintain as much generality in the programs as possible.  This




was done explicitly by structuring the computation routines in a form that




makes the main programs completely general, and by utilizing specialized sub-




routes as necessary to perform calculations that are application specific.




Consequently, the overall procedures and computer programs of the AQUIP




System are completely general in structure.




      The results of the Hackensack Meadowlands  air pollution analysis




studies were used as a basis for the development of planning guidelines.




For the greatest part these guidelines are quite general and can be applied




to other regional scale planning situations with two basic provisions. 'The




primary exception is that the explicit quantitative results are less gener-




ally applicable.  Specifically, these quantitative results may be used for




broad planning estimation purposes in other planning situations, but cannot




be considered sufficiently accurate to be used as a basis for plan decision -




making.  The second limitation on the generality of the guidelines is that




they represent the characteristic meteorological and topographical conditions




associated with the Meadowlands.  For example, since the Meadowlands has




a relatively flat and homogeneous terrain, the results cannot be applied in




planning regions having highly variable or unusual topographical features.




      Finally, the AQUIP System can be applied to the analysis of air quality




within urban regions for current situations as well as for future time




frames.  This was demonstrated in the Meadowlands study by constructing




the current northern New Jersey emissions inventory for validating and
                                    89

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calibrating the model.  Thus the AQUIP System represents a tool that can
be used not only by planners during the implementation phases of the planning
process to evaluate proposed new developments within the region, but also
by air pollution control agencies to address problems such as the evaluation
of control strategies necessary to achieve ambient air quality standards
involving, for example, changes in traffic levels, transportation systems,
land use, fuel use, and emission control regulations.

8.3  Recommendat ions

      The work undertaken and accomplished in this research effort represents
an important initial step to quantify the relationships between plan design
factors and air pollution.  As a consequence of the study there have been
a number of questions raised but which remain unanswered due either to con-
straints resulting from the scope of the research assignment or due to the
limitations of time and available resources.  Therefore, it is appropriate
to review briefly the areas in which it is felt that additional research and
development efforts would be highly beneficial to advancing the state-of-the-
art in considering air pollution in the planning process.
      The recommendations fall into three categories.  First are the areas
of recommended additional studies using the AQUIP System as already developed.
Second, are areas of recommended research efforts and further developments
of the AQUIP System for the analysis of regional scale air quality.  Third
are the areas of recommended research to develop methodologies, analytical
tools and planning guidelines: (1) for the consideration of more complex
issues in the planning process, such as determining microscale impacts
and determining relationships between air pollution and other environmental
matters; and  (2) for the development of a more generalized analytical frame-
work for plan evaluation, such as cost-benefit studies.
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      8.3.1  Further Studies Directly Associated with the Planning




             Process of che Hackensack Meadowlands Development Commission






      In conjunction with the planning process of the HMDC,  it is recom-




mended that the AQUIP System be used to perform further studies of the




existing plans through the analysis of the sensitivity of air quality to




variations in plan design factors, especially the mix and relative location




of land use categories.




      It is further recommended that the AQUIP System, as developed,  be




applied on a routine basis within the planning process of the HMDC to




analyze major modifications to existing plans or to develop  entirely  new




planning concepts as the need arises.




      Finally, it is recommended that the AQUIP System, as developed, be




used to update and to refine air quality projections as time progresses




and as land developments become more explicitly defined.  For example, in




the future better emissions data will become available to the Meadowlands




planners as specific industries are identified.  Furthermore, changes in




fuel use, control technology, and emission regulations will  cause substantial




changes in emissions estimates, not only for planned developments, but for




existing sources as well.






      8.3.2  Further Developments of the AQUIP System for Regional Scale




             Air Quality Analysis






      On the basis of the insight and experience gained as a result of the




current study, it is recognized that the AQUIP System can be substantially




improved as a planning tool for the analysis of regional scale air quality




through additional research efforts.  Some of the more significant of these




efforts are listed in the following paragraphs:




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1.   It is recommended that the  AQUIP System be adapted to and docu-




    mented for application to the general planning situation.   This




    would involve an extensive  documentation to explain the  decision-




    making processes that go into the development of the explicit




    computational routines required to automate the planning assump-




    tions and plan characteristics specific to a particular  planning




    situation.





2.   It is recommended that further work be done to refine the




    emissions data, especially  in the area of activity indices and




    projecting indices.   It is  noted that in general emissions data




    are available for specific  industries, but that the categori-




    zation of land use types and activities even in such detail as




    four or six digit SIC codes is often insufficient to accurately




    differentiate industries by emissions characteristics.





3.   It is recommended that further efforts be devoted to the




    development of default parameters to better enable the planner




    to make use of the AQUIP System in situations where; he is




    unable to obtain or specify the required input data.





4.   It is recommended that further efforts be devoted to improving




    methods for projecting background air quality.  As demonstrated




    by the Meadowlands study, background air quality is a particu-




    larly important element in the analysis of regional air  quality




    for land use planning and is a particularly large effort in




    urban regions.





5.   It is recommended that further studies be conducted concerning




    the validation and calibration of the air quality projection
                              92

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    model.  In particular there is a specific need to better




    understand the near field effects of large sources,  especially




    in the vicinity of air quality monitoring sites whose measure-




    ments are used to estimate regional air quality levels.   There




    is also a need to have air quality monitoring sites  placed in




    areas representative of regional background levels.   Finally,




    there is a need to measure pollutant concentrations  over long




    base paths in order to provide data for the calibration  of




    models more directly representative  of regional average concen-




    trations .





6.  It is recommended that further studies  be conducted  concerning




    meteorological effects.   In particular  data and results  of




    research conducted by EPA and other agencies should  be incor-




    porated into the model validation.   In  addition, the validation




    studies should include an analysis  of the systematic correla-




    tions that can occur between meteorological conditions and




    emission sources.   For example,  nighttime stable conditions




    should not be applied to emissions  which occur predominantly




    during daytime hours,  e.g., pollutants  from motor vehicles and




    industrial processes.    Similarly,  high correlations between  northerly




    wind directions and large space  heating emissions can be expected




    during the winter months.  Such  effects are not accounted for  in




    the current techniques for computing annual average  concentra-




    tions .
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      7.   It  is  recommended  that  further  studies be  conducted  to examine




          the effects  of  topographical  and  local meteorological factors on




          regional  air quality.   Because  of the flat terrain of the Meadow-




          lands,  the effects of variations  in  topographical features  could




          not be investigated.  Studies should be  conducted to examine local




          influences such as topography and heat island  and sea breeze




          effects on pollutant  concentration patterns, and to  coordinate




          the meteorology associated  with urban developments with  meso-




          scale  meteorological  models.





      8.   It  is  recommended  that  to the greatest extent  possible these




          research  studies be carried out using the  existing Hackensack




          Meadowlands  data base.   In  conducting further  studies a  good




          data base is essential.  Considerable efforts  have been  devoted




          to  the development of this  particular data base, not only to




          incorporate  the most  recent and accurage emissions inventory




          data,  but also  to  code  the  data in a standardized format for




          use in the AQUIP System.






      8.3.3  Further Developments of  the  AQUIP System for Other Applications






      As discussed  above, the AQUIP System  represents a  tool useful to




planners and  air pollution control  agencies alike  for examining air quality




impacts resulting from land  use developments and state implementation plan




control strategies  likely to occur in the near future (i.e., from  one to




five years).   In order to facilitate  the  use of the  AQUIP System for  such




applications:
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      1.  It is recommended that a software interface be developed between




          the AQUIP System and the computerized data base of an air pollu-




          tion control agency to permit direct access to current emissions




          data.   This would permit rapid updates  of the AQUIP  emissions




          data base and permit rapid recalibration of the models.   As  a




          consequence the AQUIP System could be used either  by  planners




          or air pollution control agencies to continuously  update air




          quality projections on a regional scale  to reflect both  actual




          and potential changes in the emissions of current  sources.





      2.  It is recommended that further efforts be devoted  to  the refine-




          ment of rapid estimation techniques for  the evaluation and




          ranking of land use planes.   In particular, it is  recommended




          that studies be conducted to develop sensitivity data relating




          emissions to land use categories which would be representative




          of a wide range of planning  situations and thus be more  generally




          applicable.





      One of the major findings of the ERT survey  of land use and  transpor-




tation planning agencies was that planners need to have information concern-




ing very localized effects of elements of a plan for use during plan design.




Because the current AQUIP System methodologies are oriented  toward the analysis




of regional scale effects, the results of such an  analysis cannot  be used




directly to infer localized or microscale air quality impacts.   The AQUIP




System, however, can be modified to permit the analysis of such localized




effects.
                                    95

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3.   Therefore it is recommended that further research efforts be




    devoted to the development of methodologies for the analysis




    of land use plans at the microscale level of detail through




    adaptation of the AQUIP System.





4.   It is recommended that detailed sensitivity studies be con-




    ducted to develop planning guidelines relating the impact




    of small-scale elements of the plan on localized air quality




    levels.  These guidelines should include, for example, the effects of





    open space, cluster developments,  and intensity of land use




    activities on localized air quality,  as well as estimates




    of the near-field region of influence of specific types of




    land uses.  They also should describe relationships between




    localized air quality and factors  such as population density,




    the  location of employment centers,  and transportation facili-




    ties.





5.   It is recommended also that microscale sensitivity studies be




    conducted to develop planning guidelines relating the impact




    of the design and arrangement of structures on microscale




    air quality.  Such detailed studies should include the analysis




    of buildings in terms of characteristics that influence micro-




    scale meteorological conditions  (such as height, shape, and




    lot coverage), and in terms of characteristics which influence




    emissions  (such as fuel use, control devices, heating systems




    and incineration).  Likewise, roadway facilities should be




    examined to assess localized impacts on air quality in terms
                               96

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          of design characteristics such as median width, setback from




          right of way, and cross-section configuration.





      Finally, it is recognized that air pollution is only one of the many




considerations of importance to the planner.  As a result it is recommended




that further research and development efforts be devoted to examining air



quality in relation to other environmental and planning issues.







      6.  It is recommended that research efforts be devoted to the




          development of techniques for the study of explicit relation-




          ships and tradeoffs that may occur between air pollution and




          other environmental concerns, such as water quality and solid



          waste management.




      7.  It is recommended that efforts be devoted to the development of




          techniques to better assess the impacts of direct concern to




          planners and citizens alike, such as health effects, damage



          costs and economic impact.




      8.  Finally, it is recommended that research efforts be devoted




          to the development of a more broadly based plan evaluation




          and ranking methodology.   This might include, for example,




          the consideration not only of direct air pollution impacts,



          but also indirect impacts resulting from the relationship




          between air pollution and other environmental concerns or




          planning issues.   In particular the framework for such a




          plan evaluation scheme might be based on criteria related




          to the costs and benefits resulting from alternative alloca-




          tions of regional resources.
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                                REFERENCES
1.    Chapter 404, Hackensack Meadowlands Reclamation and Development Act,
         State of New Jersey, 1969.

2.    Goldman, C.  and C.  Mattson,  Hackensack Meadowlands Comprehensive Land
         Use Plan, Hackensack Meadowlands Development Commission,  State of
         New Jersey, October, 1970.

3.    U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency, Compilation of Air Pollutant
         Emission Factors,  Environmental Protection Agency,  Research
         Triangle Park,  North Carolina,  February,  1972.  Office of Air
         Programs, Publication No. AP-42.


4.    Martin, D.O. and T.A.  Tikvart,  A General Atmospheric Diffusion Model
         for Estimating  the Effects  of One or More Sources on Air  Quality,
         presented at the 61st Annual Meeting of the APCA, St.  Paul, Minn.,
         1968.

5.    NAPCA, Air Quality  Display Model, National Air Pollution Control
         Administration, Washington, D.C., 1969.

6.    McElroy, T.L., and  F.  Pooler, St. Louis Dispersion Study,  Vol. II -
         Analysis, NAPCA Publication No. AP-53., 1968.

7.    Holzworth, G.C., Mixing Heights, Wind Speeds, and Potential for Urban
         Air Pollution Throughout the Contiguous United States, Office of
         Air Programs Publication No. AP-101, Environmental  Protection
         Agency,  Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, January 1972.
                                    99

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                                   GLOSSARY








Activity, Activity Level - basic land use and transportation planning




     units of intensity of use - vehicles per day on a highway, acres




     of residential land use, square feet of industrial plant space.




Activity Index - a numerical conversion factor to transform the level of




     activity specified for a land use category into demand for fuel for




     heating purposes.




Air Quality Contour - a contour line in a plane (usually the horizontal




     or vertical) representing points of equal concentrations for a specified




     air pollutant.




Air Quality Criteria - factors used in this study that represent a basis




     for decision-making, for example ambient air quality standards.




Air Quality Prediction - the calculation of current or future air pollutant




     concentrations at specified receptor points resulting from the action




     of meteorological conditions on source emissions.




Albedo - the fraction of solar radiation reflected from the ground surface.




Ambient Air - that portion of the atmosphere, external to buildings, to




     which the general public has access.




Ambient Air Quality - concentration levels in ambient air for a specified



    pollutant and a specified averaging time period within a given geographic




     region.



Ambient Air Quality Standard - a level of air quality established by federal




     or state agencies which is to be achieved and maintained;  primary




     standards are those judged necessary, with an adequate margin of




     safety, to protect the public health; secondary standards  are those




     judged necessary to protect the public welfare from any known or




     anticipated adverse effects of a pollutant.
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AQUIP - an acronym for Air Quality for Urban and ^Industrial Planning,




     a computer-based tool for incorporating air pollution considerations




     into the land use and transportation planning process.




Atmospheric Boundary Layer - the lower region of the atmosphere (to




     altitudes of 1 to 2 km) where meteorological conditions are strongly




     influenced by the ground surface features.




Atmospheric Dispersion Model - a mathematical procedure for calculating




     air pollution concentrations that result from a specified array of




     emission sources and a specified set of meteorological conditions.




Average Receptor Exposure - a measure of the average impact of air quality




     levels on specific receptors;  the measure is based on the integrated




     receptor exposure divided by the total number of receptors in the




     study region.




Background Air Quality - levels of pollutant concentrations within a study




     region which are the result of emissions from all other sources not




     incorporated in the model for the study region.




Background Emissions - the emissions inventory applicable to the background




     region; that is, all emission sources not explicitly included in the




     inventory for the study region.




Climatology - the study of long term weather as represented by statistical




     records of parameters such as winds, temperature, cloud cover, rainfall,



     and humidity which determine the characteristic climate of a region;




     climatology is distinguished from meteorology in that it is primarily




     concerned with average, not actual, weather conditions.




Concentrations - a measure of the average density of pollutants usually




     specified in terms of pollutant weight per unit (typically in units




     of micrograms per cubic meter), or in terms of relative volume of pollutant




     per unit volume of air (typically in units of parts per million).
                                       102

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Default Parameters - values associated with a parameter for a category of




     activities (such as heavy manufacturing) assigned to the activity para-




     meter for a subcategory of activities ,(such as electrical machinery




     production) when the actual value for the subcategory is not known.




Degree Days - the number of degrees the average temperature is below 65°




     each day; used to determine demand for fuel for heating purposes.




Effective Stack Height - the height of the plume center-line when it be-




     comes horizontal.




Emission Factor - a numerical conversion factor applied to fuel use and




     process rates to determine emissions and emission rates.




Emissions - effluents into the atmosphere, usually specified in terms of




     weight per unit time for a given pollutant from a given source.




Emissions Inventory - a data set describing the location and source strength




     of air pollution emissions within a geographical region.




Emissions Projection - the quantitative estimate of emissions  for a specified




     source and a specified future time.




Equivalent Ambient Air Quality Standards - air quality levels  adopted in




     this study to permit analysis of all air pollutants in terms of annual




     averages; in cases where state and federal annual standards do not exist,



     the adopted levels are based on the extrapolation of short period stan-




     dards.



Fuel Related Sources, Fuel Emissions - fuel related sources use fuel to heat




     area, or to raise a product to a certain temperature during an industrial




     process, or for cooking in the house; they produce fuel emissions.




     (See also Non-Fuel Related Sources.)
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Fuel Use Propensity, Fuel Demand - the total heat requirement (space




     heating plus process heating) determines the fuel demand; the propensity




     to use a particular fuel or fuels determines the actual amounts of various




     fuels used to satisfy the heat requirement.




Heating Requirements - the demand for fuel is specified in terms of the




     heating requirements:




         space heating - the fuel used to heat area, such as the floor space




         of a school in the winter, is that required for space heating; the




         heat content or value of that fuel defines the space heating re-



         quirement  (BTUs, British Thermal Units of heating content).




         non-space heating, process heating - the fuel used to raise a pro-




         duct to a certain temperature during an industrial process or for




         cooking (with gas) in the home is that required for process heating




         or non-space heating.  It is generally not related to outside tempera-




         ture whereas space heating requirements are.




         percent space heating, percent process heating - the relative pro-




         portion of a fuel or its heat content that is used for space heating




         or process heating defines,respectively, the percent space heating




         or percent process heating.



Impact Measure (or Parameter) - a quantitative representation of the degree




     of impact on air quality or specific receptors resulting from concentrations




     of specified pollutants.




Influence Region - the influence region for a study area is the geographical




     region containing the emission sources responsible for at least 90% of




     the ground level concentrations  (averaged throughout the study area) of




     all pollutants considered.
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Integrated Receptor Exposure - a measure of the total impact of air quality




     levels on specific receptors; the measure is based on the summation




     within the study region of the numbei of receptors times the concentration




     levels to which they are exposed.




Inventories - the aggregation of all fuel and process emissions sources is




     called the emissions inventory; the components for use with the model:




         current inventory - all sources for 1969




         background inventory - all sources for 1990 not directly related




         to the meadowlands plans.




         plan inventories - all sources for 1990 related to the Meadowlands




         plans; this excludes any source outside the Meadowlands boundary




         and also excludes existing major single sources and the highway




         network.




Isopleth - the locus of points of equal value in a. multidimensional space.




Land Use Intensity - the level of activity associated with a given land use




     category, for example the population density of residential areas.




Land Use Mix - the percent of total study region area allocated to specific




     land use categories.



Meteorology - the study of atmospheric motions and phenomena.




Microscale Air Quality - the representation of air quality in a geographical




     scale characterized by distances between source and receptor ranging



     from a few meters to a few tens of meters.




Mixing Depth - the vertical distance from the ground to the base of a stable




     atmospheric layer (also called inversion height).




Model Calibration - the process of correlating model projections with observed




     (measurements) data, usually to determine calibration factors relating




     predicted to observed values for each pollutant.
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Model Validation - the detailed investigation of model results by comparison




     with measured values to identify systematic discrepencies that may be




     conected by alterations of model parameters or model mechanics.




Non-Fuel Related Sources, Process Emissions, Separate Process Emissions -




     non-fuel related sources do not burn fuel primarily for heating purposes




     or do not burn fuel at all; these include transportation sources, in-



     cineration, and certain industrial processes;  they produce process or




     separate process emissions. (See also Fuel Related Sources.)




Ranking Index - a quantitative representation of the net impact on air




     quality or specific receptors resulting from all pollutants being con-




     sidered.




Receptor - a physical object which is exposed to air pollution concentrations;




     objects may be animate or inanimate, and may be arbitrarily defined in




     terms of size, numbers, and degree of specificity of the object.




Receptor Point - a geographical point at which air pollution concentrations




     are measured or predicted.




Regional Air Quality - the representation of air quality in a geographical




     scale characterized by large areas, for example, on the order of 50




     square kilometers or greater.




Schedule - number of hours per year a fuel burning activity will consume fuel;




     used to determine heating requirements.




Source - any stationary or mobile activity which produces air pollutant




     emissions.




Source Geometry - all sources for modeling purposes are considered to exist




     as a point, line, or area, defined as follows:




         point source - a single major emitter located at a point.




         line source - a major highway link, denoted by its end points.
                                        106

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         area source - a rectangular area referenced to a grid system; in-




         cludes not only area-wide sources, such as residential emitters,




         but single emitters and highway links deemed too small to be con-



         sidered individual point or line sources by the model.




Stability Category - a classification of atmospheric stability conditions




     based on surface wind speed, cloud cover and ceiling, supplemented by




     solar elevation data (latitude, time of day, and time of year).




Stability Wind Rose - a tabulation of the joint frequency of occurrences of




     wind speed and wind direction by atmospheric stability class at  a




     specific location.




Total Air Quality - the air quality at a receptor point resulting from back-




     ground emission sources and from emission sources specifically within




     the study region.




Trapping Distance - the distance downwind of a source at which vertical




     mixing of a plume begins to be significantly inhibited by the base




     of the stability layer,  and gaussian vertical distribution can no




     longer be assumed.




Wind Sector - a 22-1/2 degree wind direction range whose center-line  is one




     of the sixteen points of the compass.
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                       PRINCIPAL STUDY PARTICIPANTS









Environmental Research & Technology, Inc.




     Dr. Byron H. Willis, Study Director - Plan Evaluation




     John C. Goodrich - Emissions Projection




     Dr. James R. Mahoney - Air Pollution Meteorology




     Dr. Bruce A. Egan - Air Pollution Modeling




     Dr. Edward C. Reifenstein, III - System Software Design and Development




     Michael J. Keefe - Software Design and Programming




     David A. Berghofer - Computer Programming









Burns § Roe, Inc. (subcontractor to ERT)




     William A. Foy - Combustion and Process Emission Technology




     William E. Wechter - Combustion and Process Emission Technology
                                     109

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                                   TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                           (Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing
1  REPORT NO.
 EPA-450/3-74-056-3
                                                           3 RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION-NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
 THE HACKENSACK MEADOWLANDS AIR POLLUTION STUDY

        Summary Report
             5 REPORT DATE
              July  1973
             6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
                                                           8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
 Byron H. Willis
              ERT Project  P-244-SR
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
 Environmental  Research  and Technology,  Inc.
 429 Marrett  Road
 Lexington, Massachusetts   02173
                                                           10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
             11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
                                                             EHSD 71-39
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
                                                           13. TYPE OF RE;PORT AND PERIOD COVERED
 Environmental  Protection Agency
 Office of Air  Quality Planning and Standards
 Research Triangle  Park,  North Carolina  27711
               Final
             14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
 Prepared in cooperation with the New Jersey  Department of Environmental  Protection,
 Office of the Commissioner, Labor and  Industry Building, Trenton, N.J.   08625
16. ABSTRACT
      The Hackensack  Meadowlands Air Pollution  Study consists of a summary report and

 five task reports.   The summary report discusses  the procedures developed for

 considering air  pollution in the planning  process and the use of these  procedures

 to evaluate four alternative land use plans  for the New Jersey Hackensack Meadowlands

 for 1990.  The task  reports describe (1) the emission projection methodology and its

 application to the Hackensack Meadowlands;  (2)  the model for predicting air quality

 levels and its validation and calibration:   (3) the evaluation and  ranking of the

 land use plans;  (4)  the planning guidelines  derived from the analysis of the plans;

 and, (5) the software system.
                                KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                  DESCRIPTORS
                                              b.IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS  C.  COSATI Field/Group
 Land Use
 Planning and Zoning
 Local Governments
 County Governments
 State Governments
 Regional Governments
 Air Pollution  flnntrnl
IS. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
 Unlimited
                                              19 SECURITY CLASS (This Report)
                                                Unclassified
                                                                         21. NO. OF PAGES
                              117
20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)
  Unclassified
                           22 PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
                                            110

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