EPA-450/3-74-056-a
JULY 1973
HACKENSACK MEADOWLANDS
AIR POLLUTION STUDY -
SUMMARY REPORT
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Air and Waste Management
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
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EPA-450/3-74-056-a
HACKENSACK MEADOWLANDS
AIR POLLUTION STUDY -
SUMMARY REPORT
by
Byron H. Willis
Environmental Research and Technology, Inc.
429 Marrett Road
Lexington, Massachusetts 02173
Contract No. EHSD 71-39
EPA Project Officer: John Robson
Prepared for
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Air and Waste Management
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park , N. C. 27711
July 1973
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This report is issued by the Environmental Protection Agency to report technical
data of interest to a limited number of readers. Copies are available free
of charge to Federal employees, current contractors and grantees, and nonprofit
organizations-as supplies permit-from the Air Pollution Technical Information
Center, Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North
Carolina 27711; or, for a fee, from the National Technical Information Service,
5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency by the
Environmental Research and Technology, Inc. , in fulfillment of Contract
No. EHSD 71-39. The contents of this report are reproduced herein as received
from the Environmental Research and Technology, Inc. The opinions, findings,
and conclusions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those
of the Environmental Protection Agency. Mention of company or product
names is not to be considered as an endorsement by the Environmental Protection
Agency.
Publication No. EPA-450/3-74-056-a
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PREFACE
The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study final report consists of
a summary report, five task reports and three appendices, each bound separate-
ly. This report is the summary report. Its purpose is to present an over-
view of the procedures developed for considering air pollution in the urban
and transportation planning process, and to describe the results of applying
these procedures to the evaluation and ranking of the four alternative land
use plans for the New Jersey Hackensack Meadowlands.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The work upon which this report is based was performed pursuant to
contract No. bHSD-71-59 with the bnvironmental Protection Agency, and
Contract No. 1P-290 with the New Jersey Department of Environmental
Protection.
The cooperation and assistance of the many personnel from EPA and
NJDEP contributed greatly to the success of this study. The special assist-
ance of Mr. Roland S. Yunghans and Dr. Edward B. Feinberg, Environmental
Scientists, Office of the Commissioner, NJDEP, and Mr. John Robson, Land Use
Planning Branch, Office of Air Programs, EPA, is appreciated.
IV
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
PAGE NOS.
PREFACE iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS v
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS vii
LIST OF TABLES viii
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Background to the Study 1
1.2 Objectives and Scope of the Study 5
1.3 Structure of the Final Report 7
2. General Methodology for Considering Air Pollution in the
Planning Process 11
2.1 The AQUIP System 11
2.2 Basic Air Quality Analysis Considerations 14
2.3 Methodologies for Plan Evaluation and Ranking 16
3. Procedures for Projecting Emissions 19
3.1 Basic Features of the Procedures 19
3.2 General Description of the Procedures 19
3.3 Illustration of the Estimation Procedures 22
3.4 Computational Techniques 27
3.5 Conclusions 29
4. Methodology for Projecting Air Quality 31
4.1 General Description of the Air Quality Projection Model . 31
4.2 Basis of the Model: The Gaussian Plume Equation 33
4.3 Data Used in the Modeling Studies 36
4.4 Model Validation Procedures 40
5. Operational Features of the AQUIP System Software 45
5.1 Overview of the AQUIP System Software 45
5.2 Planning Inputs 47
5.3 Air Quality Prediction Model 49
5.4 Air Quality Impact Model 50
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont.)
Page Nos,
6. Evaluation and Ranking of the Hackensack Meadowlands Land
Use Plans 55
6.1 General Air Quality Criteria for Plan Evaluation 55
6.2 Summary of Land Use Plan Characteristics 58
6.3 Results of the Air Quality Analysis 66
7. Planning Guidelines 71
7.1 Introduction 71
7.2 Effect of Background Sources on Air Quality 72
7.3 Effect of Plan Design Factors on Air Quality 74
7.4 Effects of Topography and Meteorology on Air Quality ... 78
7.5 Limitations of Regional Air Quality Considerations .... 83
8. Conclusion and Recommendations 85
8.1 Review of Major Accomplishments 85
8.2 General Applicability of the Results 88
8.3 Recommendations 90
REFERENCES 99
GLOSSARY 101
PRINCIPAL STUDY PARTICIPANTS
VI
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LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
Page Nos.
Location of the Hackensack Meadowlands District 4
The AQUIP System Conceptual Design 12
Coordinate System Showing Gaussian Distributions in the
Horizontal and Vertical 35
4 Illustration of the Four Geographical Zones used in the
Development of the Emission Inventory 39
5 AQUIP Software System - Summary of Programs, Data Sets,
and Information Flow 46
6 Example of SYMAP Computer-Generated Air Quality Contour . 51
7 Alternative Meadowlands Land Use Plan No. 1 -- The Master Plan 59
8 Alternative Meadowlands Land Use Plan No. 1A -- Self . . 60
Supporting New Town
9 Alternative Meadowlands Land Use Plan No. IB -- Expansion
of New York City Urban Core 61
10 Alternative Meadowlands Land Use Plan No. 1C -- Trend
Development Based on Current Zoning 62
VII
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LIST OF TABLES
Table
1 Equivalent Annual Average Air Quality Standards 57
2 Summary of Land Use Information for Hackensack 63
Meadowlands Plans
3 Summary of Estimated 1990 Annual Emission Rates
per Acre for Hackensack Meadowlands Land Use
Categories 75
4 Principal Effects of Topography Upon Air Quality
Patterns 80
Vlll
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I. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the Study
In response to the recognized hazards to human health, damage to
vegetation and property, and degradation of the general quality of life,
there is nearly universal concern for the problems of air pollution and its
abatement. Currently, extensive efforts are being devoted to programs of air
pollution control by federal, state, and local agencies to achieve ambient
air quality standards through the direct regulation of source emissions.
While such control measures are necessary to cope with the magnitude of cur-
rent air pollution problems, there is a growing concern that these measures
may not be appropriate to achieve long-term solutions.
Rather, it is now widely suggested that air pollution, as well as
other environmental concerns, be addressed in terms of more fundamental
sources of the problem, such as population growth, energy consumption,
utilization of land and natural resources, and management of waste
products. In particular there is wide recognition of the need to
incorporate the consideration of air pollution within the planning process.
One reason is that the planning process is especially well suited to the
consideration of the relationships between air pollution and the many tech-
nical, social, economic, and political factors that influence potential
long-term solutions. Another reason is that air pollution is only one of a
multitude of problems and issues that compete for the limited resources of
society and the economy; the planning process represents a rational, syste-
matic means for examining regional needs and determining priorities to satisfy
such needs.
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Yet despite this concern for achieving long-term solutions through
orderly comprehensive planning, there is little evidence that air pollution
has ever been a serious consideration in the development and implementation
of a land use or transportation plan. One of the most fundamental reasons
for this lack of attention is that planners durrently have neither the exper-
tise nor the analytical tools and methodologies required to assess the air
pollution consequences of planning alternatives. In recognition of these
factors the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has undertaken a
number of research studies to stimulate greater consideration of air pollution
in the land use and transportation planning process, especially through the
development of methodologies and guidelines for the assessment of air quality
associated with proposed land use plans.
In like manner the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection
(NJDEP) has become acutely sensitive to the finite and interrelated nature
of the air, water, and land resources of the state. By virtue of its location
in the heart of the Washington-New York-Boston megalopolis, New Jersey is
experiencing tremendous growth pressures even though it already is one of the
most highly urbanized and industrialized states in the Union. While the
overwhelming majority of its efforts have been devoted to correcting ex-
isting environmental abuses, the Department is looking toward new ways
to plan for orderly growth which will protect the quality of the environment.
A particularly important example of New Jersey's concern for the environ-
ment and its approach to improving environmental quality through land use
planning is illustrated by the State's attempt to reclaim and develop the
Hackensack Meadowlands of northern New Jersey. In 1968, the New Jersey
Legislature passed the "Hackensack Meadowlands Reclamation and Developine*"
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Act" creating a commission with the authority to prepare, adopt, and
implement a master plan for the orderly development of the district. As a
consequence, a number of alternative comprehensive land use plans have been
prepared to complement previous development in the district and to correct
existing imbalances in regional land uses.
The New Jersey Hackensack Meadowlands District is a tract of land
measuring approximately four miles by eight miles extending in a north-south
direction along the Hackensack River. As shown in Figure 1, the Meadowlands
is located at the hub of the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area. Within
a five-mile wide zone around the Meadowlands is Manhattan immediately across
the Hudson River to the east, Jersey City and Newark to the south, Paterson
and Passaic to the northwest, and Hackensack to the north. Today, the
Hackensack Meadowlands consists largely of meadows, marshes, and salt-water
swamps. Of its nearly 20,000 acres oniy 7000 are committed to permanent
uses. These consist largely of transportation networks (highways, railroads,
and an airport), distribution centers (freight terminals, warehouses, stor-
age tanks, and utility transmission lines), and solid waste disposal (over
30,000 tons per week from more than 100 municipalities).
Planners of the Hackensack Meadowlands Development Commission (HMDC)
envision developing the Meadowlands in order to provide more than 300,000
jobs and homes for some 185,000 persons by 1990 while preserving nearly
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5000 acres for conservation land and open space. However, water pollution,
air pollution, and dumping of solid wastes have damaged the natural ecology
of the tidal marsh and have created an unsightly blighted area. Planners
of the HMDC recognize that the ultimate success of their plans to provide
housing, employment, and economic development for the region depends on the
restoration of the natural environment, not upon its exploitation.
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MAC KEN SACK <
MEADOWLANDS "
DISTRICT
Figure 1 Location of the Hackensack Meadowlands District
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Consequently, EPA and the New Jersey Department of Environmental
Protection have sponsored a study addressed to the mutual concerns of both
agencies for improving future air quality through the planning of land use
and transportation activities. In particular, the two fundamental objectives
of this jointly sponsored study are: (1) to develop a broad-based methodology
for considering air pollution in the formulation and evaluation of alterna-
tive urban plans; and (2) to demonstrate in detail this methodology through
its direct application to the planning alternatives developed for the New
Jersey Hackensack Meadowlands District.
1.2 Objectives and Scope of the Study
Environmental Research § Technology, Inc. (ERT) was selected to under-
take this study to Initiate air pollution considerations in the development,
evaluation, and selection of alternative land use plans for the New Jersey
Hackensack Meadowlands. The general objectives of the effort were to:
1. Develop procedures for incorporating air pollution considerations
into the land use and transportation planning process.
2. Develop analytical tools and methodologies necessary to permit
planners to carry out these procedures.
3. Perform an analysis of the air pollution potential associated
with alternative comprehensive land use plans for the Hackensack
Meadowlands in the 1990 time period.
4. Prepare a planning guidelines document which will enable urban
and transportation planners to introduce air pollution considera-
tions into the planning process.
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5. Provide the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection
with an operational capability to use these procedures and
methodologies to assess newly developed land use plans or modi-
fications to existing planning alternatives for the Hackensack
Meadowlands.
In carrying out these objectives the scope of the study was limited
to the analysis and comparative evaluation of four alternative comprehensive
land use plans for the Meadowlands for the 1990 time period. The assessment
of air quality was restricted to the consideration of regional scale concen-
trations for annual averages and for summer and winter seasonal averages.
Assessment of microscale air quality impacts, i.e., variations in concentra-
tions over small distances and short time averaging periods, was not within
the scope of this study. Five pollutants were considered: total suspended
particulates (TSP); sulfur dioxide (SCL); carbon monoxide (CO); total hydro-
carbons (HC); and nitrogen oxides (NOY). The analysis also included the
A
influence of emission sources outside the Meadowlands on air quality within
the planning region. The study was further restricted to the use of avail-
able emissions data and air quality measurements data for model validation.
Finally, the scope of the study called specifically for the develop-
ment of analytical methodologies: (1) for estimating total future (1990)
air pollution emissions for an urbanized area; (2) for translating projected
emissions into predictions of future (1990) air quality levels; and (3) for
the evaluation and ranking of alternative urban plans.
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1.3 Structure of the Final Report
The final report describes the two major achievements of this study:
(1) the development of the AQUIP System, a methodology for considering Air
Quality in Urban and Industrial Planning; and (2) the application of this
methodology to the evaluation and ranking of four land use plans for the
New Jersey Hackensack Meadowlands District.
The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study final report consists
of a summary report, 5 task reports, and 3 appendices, each bound separately.
Specifically, these reports include:
The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study-Summary Report
(ERT Document No. P-244-SR)
The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study Task 1 Report:
Emissions Projection Methodology (ERT Document No. P-244-1)
The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study Task 2 Report:
Development and Validation of a Modeling Technique for Predicting
Air Quality Levels (ERT Document No. P-244-2)
The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study Task 3 Report:
The Evaluation and Ranking of Land Use Plans (ERT Doc. No. P-244-3)
The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study Task 4 Report:
Guidelines for the Consideration of Air Pollution in Urban Planning
(ERT Doc. No. P-244-4).
The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study Task 5 Report: The
AQUIP Software System User's Manual (ERT Doc. No. P-244-5).
The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study Appendix A: Plan Data
Sets and Conversion Factors Catalog (Appendix to the Task 1 Report),
(ERT Doc. No. P-244-1A).
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The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study Appendix B: Current and
Background Emission Inventories (Appendix to the Task 1 Report),
(ERT Doc. No. P-244-1B).
The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study Appendix C: Program
Listings (Appendix to the Task 5 Report), (ERT Doc. No. P-244-5C).
The five task reports correspond directly to the five major tasks around
which the study was organized. These reports provide a complete and detailed
discussion of the approach, data, assumptions, results and conclusions for
each task. In addition, two separately bound appendices to the Task 1 Report
document the data sets and specific calculation routines used for estimating
emissions in the study. Similarly a separately bound appendix to the Task 5
Report documents the AQUIP System software.
A summary description of the work performed and results obtained in
the study is presented in this Summary Report. The material is taken from
each of the study task reports, but is organized and presented in relation
to overall study objectives. In particular, Section 2 presents an overview
of the procedures for incorporating air pollution in the planning process.
The detailed discussion of those procedures is found in the Task 3 Report.
Sections 3, 4, and 5 present summary descriptions of technical method-
ologies and analytical tools developed explicitly to permit the planner to
carry out the general procedures. Specifically, Section 3 summarizes the
emissions projection techniques, which are described in detail in the Task 1
Report. Section 4 summarizes the air quality projection techniques and vali-
dation procedures, which are described in detail in the Task 2 Report.
Section 5 summarizes the computer programs, data sets, and information flow
associated with the AQUIP System, the basic tool for carrying out the air
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quality assessment procedures. The detailed description of the AQUIP System
software is given in the Task 5 Report.
Section 6 presents a summary of the results of the air quality analysis
of the Meadowlands land use plans using the AQUIP System. The detailed
discussion of the comparative evaluation of the alternative plans is given
in the Task 3 Report.
Section 7 summarizes the conclusions and planning guidelines derived
from the Meadowlands air pollution study. The complete planning guidelines
are presented in the Task 4 Report.
Finally, Section 8 presents a summary of major conclusions from the
study and lists recommendations for further research efforts.
It is expected that this Summary Report will receive a wider distribu-
tion than the individual task reports and therefore is oriented toward pro-
viding summary information and general descriptions of techniques and results.
Planners, air pollution control officials, and other readers who desire to
use the procedures and analytical methodologies described herein should
obtain copies of the detailed task reports that are applicable to their parti-
cular interests.
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2. GENERAL METHODOLOGY FOR CONSIDERING AIR POLLUTION
IN THE PLANNING PROCESS
2.1 The AQUIP System
In response to the general requirements identified in a survey of plan-
ning agencies, a methodology has been developed which permits planners to
incorporate air pollution considerations within the planning process. The
elements of this methodology consist generally of: (1) a set of procedures
for collecting, processing and interpreting land use and other input data;
(2) a set of procedures for generating air quality information from such
input data; and (3) a set of procedures for the evaluation and ranking of
alternative land use plans. This combination of methodologies, procedures
and analytical tools represents a system for the analysis of air pollution
associated with land use and transportation plans. This system has been
designated as the AQUIP System (Air Quality for Urban and Industrial Plan-
ning), and is represented schematically in Figure 2.
The AQUIP System is a computer-oriented set of procedures involving the
planner in an iterative cycle of plan evaluation and modification consisting
of the following basic steps:
1. The preparation of input data descriptive of the land use or
transportation plan.
2. The conversion of these data into pollutant emissions data.
3. The prediction and display of mean ambient pollutant concentrations
within the area of interest.
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OVERALL PLANNING
GOALS, CRITERIA AND
CONSTRAINTS
THE PLANNER
AND THE
URBAN-INDUSTRIAL PLAN
PLANNING DATA
CONVERSION METHODOLOGY
FROM PLANNING DATA TO
EMISSIONS DATA
EMISSIONS DATA
AIR QUALITY COMPUTATION
MODEL
CLIMATOLOGICAL
DATA
AIR QUALITY DATA,
MAPS, ETC.
PLAN EVALUATION
METHODOLOGY
AIR QUALITY
STANDARDS AND
CRITERIA
ANALYSIS OF PLAN ADEQUACY RELATIVE
TO AIR POLLUTION CRITERIA
Figure 2 The AQUIP System Conceptual Design
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4. The evaluation and ranking of the plan with respect to other
plans through analysis of air quality contours and the computation
of quantitative measures of impact.
5. The subsequent modification of the plan or the input data and the
repetition of the process.
Of these five steps the first and last require the direct involvement of the
planner to specify and manipulate planning data, to assess the degree to
which a plan satisfies the planning objectives and constraints, and to specify
changes to the plan as deemed necessary. The other steps involve directly
the use of computer-based models and data management programs to perform the
required air quality projections and data calculations.
A basic feature of the AQUIP System is that it permits the direct input
of land use planning data. As a result it can be used to compute ambient air
quality concentrations related to specific land use activities. The primary
outputs of the AQUIP System are in the form of computer-generated maps and
tabular listings of data. Computed concentrations for each of the pollutants
may be displayed as isopleth contours and overlayed on base maps of the
planning region, permitting a rapid visual correlation between air quality
concentrations and land use activities.
The heart of the AQUIP is the mathematical diffusion model used to
compute pollutant concentrations based on source emissions input data and
meteorological parameters. The model is a version of the Martin-Tikvart
advection-diffusion model which has been extensively modified by ERT to
improve the accuracy of calculating concentrations over short transport
distances and to improve flexibility in the use of the model.
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Another essential element of the AQUIP System is the air quality data
management and impact analysis software. In this portion of the system the
user can specify arbitrary measures of impact and can manipulate air quality
data, emissions data, land use data, air quality standards, or any other
data set to calculate such impact measures. Calculated data can be tabulated
or presented graphically, showing for example, the distribution of air quality
concentrations, emissions densities, impact parameters, land use densities,
or other data of interest to the planner. Furthermore, such data can be used
to compare and rank plans in terms of air quality standards and other criteria
as specified by the planner.
2.2 Basic Air Quality Analysis Considerations
The procedures developed for the evaluation and ranking of alternative
land use plans are based on determining air quality on a region-wide geo-
graphic scale for annual and seasonal average pollutant concentrations.
Furthermore, the evaluation of air quality associated with a plan focuses
on the analysis of four items:
1. The degree of compliance with ambient air quality standards.
2. The degree of impact on regional levels of air quality.
3. The degree of impact on specific receptors or land use cate-
gories that are especially sensitive to the effects of pollutants.
4. The indication of ways to modify plans to improve air quality.
Procedures for examining compliance with air quality standards involve
the calculation of projected air quality contours over the planning region.
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The maximum values of predicted air quality levels are then compared with
the appropriate ambient air quality standards.
Procedures for examining the impact of land use plans on regional air
quality are based first on the examination of spatial patterns of air quality
and secondly on the calculation of quantitative measures of impact for each
pollutant. The examination of the isopleth contours of pollutant concentra-
tions over the planning region indicates the location of regions of low and
high pollutant concentrations and also permits the visual examination of the
influence of the type, location and intensity of land use activities on the
air quality contours. The calculation of impact measures permits the com-
parative evaluation and ranking of alternative plans through the quantitative
assessment of their impact on regional air quality.
An especially important aspect of the analysis and evaluation of land
use plans is the analysis of impact of air pollution levels on specific high-
risk receptors and land use categories. The analysis procedures are based
both on the examination of the location of critical receptors relative to
air quality contours and on the calculation of quantitative measures of
impact.
Procedures for plan modification using the AQUIP System consist of
general guidelines based on the tabulation of the annual emissions per acre
for the different land use categories analyzed for the Hackensack Meadow-
lands. These data show the relative sensitivity of air quality levels to
such plan design factors as the mix, location, and intensity of land use
categories. Such data can be used, for example, to identify land use cate-
gories which can be located within the plan without any significant impact
on regional air pollution concentration levels, but which substantially
reduce exposures of critical receptors to pollutants.
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2.3 Methodologies for Plan Evaluation and Ranking
Procedures were developed for tue evaluation and comparative ranking
of alternative land use plans based on the interpretation of three basic
types of information: land use data, air quality data, and air quality cri-
teria. The basic methodologies developed for plan evaluation and ranking
consist of the analysis of regional air quality based on the calculation of
quantitative measures of impact and on the graphical display of air quality
contours. The interpretation of air quality contours relies largely on
visual examination and subjective judgment rather than on quantitative
analysis. On the other hand, quantitative impact measures permit analytic
evaluation, but subdue the physical and intuitive interpretation of the
results. Consequently, the key issue involved in the development of procedures
for plan evaluation and ranking concerns the role of subjective judgment on
the part of the planner: the interpretation of quantitative evaluation and
ranking data and its importance relative to other planning issues ultimately
is a value judgment.
In this study the quantitative measures of impact that were found to
be most useful and meaningful in both plan evaluation and ranking were: (1)
measures of integrated receptor exposure, and (2) measures of average recep-
tor exposure. The integrated receptor exposure for a given plan is calcu-
lated by superimposing an arbitrary grid system on the planning region,
forming the product of the number of receptors per grid cell times the pol-
lutant concentration within the grid cell, then summing this product over
all grid cells within the planning region. This impact measure physically
represents an indicator of the cumulative values of receptor exposures within
the plan. By contrast, the average receptor exposure impact measure is
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calculated from the integrated exposure measure by dividing the resultant
integrated exposure measure by the total number of receptors within the plan.
Consequently, the average exposure measure has units of pollutant concentra-
tion and physically represents an indicator of the average concentration' to
which any given receptor within the plan will be exposed.
The receptors investigated in terms of these quantitative measures of
impact were people and land. Two categories of people receptors were used:
total population and student population. Four categories of land receptors
were used: total land area, residential land area, open space land area., and
the combination of commercial and industrial land area. In the analysis of
the Hackensack Meadowlands plans, the average total area exposure was examined
as the primary measure of regional air quality levels and the average popula-
tion exposure impact parameter was examined as the principal measure of impact
on critical receptors. However, quantitative impact measures were calculated
for all combinations of pollutants and receptor categories. In addition, the
AQUIP System permits a significant amount of flexibility in defining and
calculating other quantitative measures of impact and in specifying air
quality criteria other than ambient air quality standards for use in the
evaluation.
The specific requirements for the quantitative ranking of alternative
land use plans differ slightly from the requirements for the analysis and
evaluation of plans. The basic need for plan ranking is to generate a single
number or ranking index that can be calculated for each plan to permit the
relative ranking of the plans. This ranking index may be associated with the
impact of a single pollutant, thereby allowing a pollutant by pollutant compari-
son and ranking, or may be associated with the combined impact of all pollutants
(i.e., a multipollutant air quality index).
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Although it is required that the ranking methodology be based on a
formula in order to permit the ranking to be based on quantitative criteria
precisely stated in objective terms, it is evident that no ranking index is
unique or absolute. In fact, it is desired that the ranking scheme be suf-
ficiently flexible to accommodate the subjective values of the planner and
his particular circumstances in formulating the ranking index.
A brief survey of the literature dealing with the general multipollutant
air quality indices indicates that despite the fact that many such indices
have been proposed, all exhibit some degree of difficulty in accurately
characterizing the status of regional air quality in terms of multipollutant
impact, and few were found to be directly applicable to the ranking of land
use plans.
Three specific ranking schemes were examined in detail to determine
their suitability as a meaningful and useful index for ranking alternative
land use plans. The methodology finally selected for use in the analysis
of the alternative land use plans for the Hackensack Meadow]ands is desig-
nated as the Normalized Impact Parameter Ranking Index. The selected ranking
index is described in detail in Section 5.3.3 of the Task 3 Report.
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3. METHODOLOGY FOR PROJECTING EMISSIONS
3.1 Basic Features of the Procedures
One of the major objectives of the study was to develop a methodology
to aid planners in determining air pollutant emissions directly from land
use and transportation activity data.
The basic requirements established for the emission projection method-
ology were: compatibility of emissions data with both planning information
and dispersion model formats, applicability to general situations and not
just to the Meadowlands, reliance upon existing state and federal emis-
sions inventory data, and provision for updating. These shaped the pro-
cedures developed. A five-step procedure was formulated to transform
data on levels of activity into fuel demand, and fuel use into emissions.
These transformations rely upon empirically derived "default parameters" as
well as upon published government data, such as air pollutant emission factors.
The procedures are applied and tested in two phases: in the first
phase current planning data and current emissions are correlated to produce
projecting indices. In the second phase these projecting indices are modi-
fied to reflect future time periods and are applied to planning data so as
to generate future emission levels. The study was concerned as much with
the applications of this second phase to the Hackensack Meadowlands land use
plans, as with the development of the procedures themselves.
3.2 General Description of the Procedures
Procedures presently used to estimate emissions from land use and trans-
portation planning data often emphasize empirical derivation of emission
indices as a one-step function of "activity categories." in this study,
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however, a multi-step approach was developed so that: (1) all assumptions
and constraints involved in transforming the levels of activities
into emissions could be examined; and (2) procedures for updating the
information which the planner does not directly input could be specified.
In response to the study objectives a five-step procedure was formulated:
Step 1 - Activities: For each land use or transportation planning
category identified for analysis, the "level of activity" is specified,
such as 20 dwelling units per acre for residential density.
Step 2 - Activity Indices: For each category of activity, "default
parameters" for determining fuel requirements are developed, such as 10
BTUs (British Thermal Units of heat demand) per hour per square foot of
residential floor area.
Step 5 - Fuel Use: For each category of activity (and geographical sub-
region of the study area) default parameters for the propensity to use
different fuels are applied to the fuel requirements, such as the degree to
which oil is used (75%) rather than natural gas (25%) for home heating.
Step 4 - Emission Factors: For each category of activity, engineering
estimates of fuel and non-fuel (process) related "emission factors" are
developed and applied directly to fuel use and process rates to determine
emissions, such as 10 pounds of particulates per 1000 gal. of fuel oil burned.
Step 5 - Emissions: Emissions calculated from fuel and process sources
are adjusted for season of the year, based on temperature variation (degree
days) and default parameters representing the percent of fuel used for "space
heating" purposes.
Of particular importance in this study was the application of these
five-step procedures in two distinct and consecutive phases. In the first phase
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current planning data and current fuel use are correlated to produce projec-
ting indices - the default parameters. In the second phase these projecting
indices are modified to reflect future time periods and are applied to plan-
ning data so as to generate future fuel demand and emission levels. Current
data on fuel use and emission factors are likewise used to predict future
information when better estimates are not known. The first phase analysis
provides the majority of the default parameters to be used in the second
phase in conjunction with the planner's own inputs.
By focusing attention on such procedures for determining current emission
inventories, it is easier to develop techniques for estimating future emis-
sion inventories. This is important since future inventories must depend
directly upon planning related data. Furthermore, it is only through an
excellent understanding of the relationship between planning and emissions
for current inventories that the necessary conversion factors to project
future emissions can be developed.
Another especially important consideration in this study was the develop-
ment of procedures for allocating emissions to a grid system as required for input
to the diffusion model. Emission inventories are too often tied to the grid cell
system that is used for modeling purposes. Much of the original information
obtained by land use zones or political jurisdiction is lost in the process
of transferring the data to the area source grid cells. The grid cell size
cannot be changed at a later date and a great deal of manual input of data mus\,
be undertaken. To avoid these problems, a powerful and innovative technique
was developed as part of the LANTRAN program to make the processing of inform-
ation independent of grid size. The key to the technique is the initial
listing of land use activities and related characteristics in a computer
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data bank by geographical coordinates (such as UTM - Universal Traverse
Mercator - Coordinates) and land use zones. Emissions data for each land
use zone are computed by referencing the conversion factors catalog. Then,
any specified grid size can be superimposed and the emissions contained
within each grid cell calculated. Thus, if changes are to be made in the
initial land use data or if a different grid cell system is desired, the
incremental changes can be made without destroying the entire data system.
This feature provides for the maximum convenience in updating basic data and
for maximum flexibility in the use of the data.
A final consideration of basic importance concerns procedures for
estimating emissions when confronted with inadequate data. To put such
general procedures into practice requires assumptions and approximations:
the data may not be available according to the land use zones and political
jurisdiction desired; many of the parameters necessary for the activity
indices contained in the conversion factors catalog may be missing from the
data base. For missing data the concept of "default parameters" was de-
veloped. If information is desired, for example, according to a detailed
industrial classification for the propensity to use different fuels but
data are available only on an aggregated basis for all industries in the
region, a default parameter is used to assign the industry-wide factor to
each individual industry. If, at a later date, specific information for an
industry becomes known, then it can be incorporated into the conversion
factors catalog in place of the default parameter.
3.3 Illustration of the Estimation Procedures
Three examples can be discussed briefly to show the application of
these procedures to planning activity data, in general, and to the Meadow-
lands plans, in particular. The three examples show: (1) a residential land
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use zone represented as an "area-wide" source; (2) an industrial activity
represented as a single "point" source; and (3) a highway segment represented
as a "line" source.
3.3.1 Example of Area Source Emissions Estimation Procedures
For a residential land use category there are several planning inputs that
are required, referred to by the steps in the five-step procedure previously
outlined:
Step 1 - The density and acreage can be used to determine the number of
dwelling units.
Step 2 - The average number of rooms and type of dwelling unit can be
used to determine the heating requirement (fuel demand) per dwelling unit.
Step 3 - The mix of single family homes, town houses and apartments
can be used to determine what fuels will be burned and with what size equip-
ment. This procedure was very elaborate in the case of the Hackensack Meadow-
lands plans: clusters of apartment complexes separated by open water were
often heated from a single central system.
Several default parameters may also be required, particularly in Step 2.
Current data on activity levels and fuel use can be used to calculate a default
parameter for heating demand - British Thermal Units per dwelling unit
(BTU/d.u); this value can be adjusted for a future time period and for dif-
ferences between residential categories, particularly for the number of rooms
per dwelling unit.
It is necessary to answer several important questions concerning how
the fuel demand will be satisfied:
1. What fuel will be used (oil, coal, gas, steam, or electricity)?
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2. What other home activities in addition to heating will use
the fuel (cooking, hot water)?
3. What type of fuel-burning apparatus will be used (individual
home heating, or a central heating system for several thousand
dwelling units)?
National or regional default parameters can usually be relied upon to
answer the first two questions, but the third question is basically a planning
decision. There is a significant trend toward centralized heating and cooling
systems for reasons of economy in developments such as those contemplated
for the Meadowlands. The density of development and the large scale of each
single complex is such that many of the procedures formulated for the
Meadowlands plans cannot be translated into average suburban single-family
residential areas.
Step 4 - For each fuel and type of fuel burning equipment (individual
house or central system), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has pub-
lished emission factors .
Step 5 - These factors are used to translate the amount of fuel burned
into the quantity of emissions for various pollutants. The size of the fuel
burning installation determines which factors should be Used and whether or
not emission control devices are likely to be used.
3.3.2 Example of Point Source Emissions Estimation Procedures
For an industrial activity the problem may be more complex. In dealing
with an existing major emitter represented as a point source, adequate emis-
sions information may be available from a current inventory; however, it is
unlikely that the present level of activity or projected changes in that level
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will be known. Conversely, planning information tends to deal with indus-
tries by broad categories and rarely with a specific firm and its character-
istics which will influence the level of emissions at a particular location.
The land use planner does work with parameters such as acres and lot cover-
age which can yield an estimate of the number of square feet of floor space
for a new facility (Step 1). In the case of the Meadowlands plans, for
example, only the area of each industrial lot (in multiples of 10 acres)
was specified by the planners.
Empirically derived estimates of BTUs per square foot for heating pur-
poses (Step 2) show great variation; even greater variation is exhibited in
the percent of fuel used by industries for heating. It may be 100% for a
warehouse and close to zero for a foundry. Propensities to use different
fuels (Step 3) may be derived empirically by industrial category, such as
the two-digit or four-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) adopted
by the U.S. Department of Commerce for their Census of Manufacturing.
The least reliable information involves separate process emissions from
industrial sources, such as the evaporation from a tank farm. Source emis-
sion inventories have generally been incomplete in this area; therefore,
little empirical data are available from which to derive default parameters.
Furthermore, where emission factors have been determined, they are related
to process rate: the total quantity of material processed per unit time for
the operation producing the emissions. Process rate has not as yet been cor-
related with parameters that are readily available to the planner; virtually
no planning effort would include projections of process rate. Therefore,
very crude default parameters have been developed in this study to relate
process emission by activity category directly to fuel emissions or to activity
level, such as employment.
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If an activity such as an industrial land use zone does not generate a
large amount of emissions, it should be aggregated into an area source for
modeling purposes rather than considered a separate point source. Default
size criteria were determined for each activity category to allow the
planner to decide, objectively, whether a particular development should be
considered a point source or not.
3.3.3 Example of Line Source Emissions Estimation Procedures
The procedures for determining line source emissions from a highway
network are quite simple. Activities (Step 1) are multiplied directly by emis-
sion factors (Step 4) to produce emissions (Step 5). The EPA emission factors
vary by vehicle class; in addition, the factors for certain pollutants vary
with speed. Transporation planners routinely determine all of the ac-
tivity data needed. The procedures use default parameters for vehicle class
mix, model year mix, and average speed together with the appropriate emission
factors where local data are not available. Whether or not a particular traf-
fic segment should be a line source or an area source can be determined by
a size criterion, based on vehicle miles per unit time.
3.3.4 Other Estimation Procedures
The procedures to go from activity levels (Step 1) to emission strengths
(Step 5) for all other activities represent combinations of and modifications
to these three examples. In many cases, commercial, institutional, or trans-
portation activity emissions can be determined as a function of the residen-
tial activities they serve. This is particularly relevant when a planned
development having apartments, offices, stores, and parking areas built as
one unit is involved.
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Certain activity categories, such as parks, were considered to have
negligible emissions when averaged over a season or the year and were, there-
fore, not included in the analysis. Other categories, such as the airport,
did not have significant fuel-related emissions but did have significant pro-
cess emissions which were related directly to the level of activity (number
of flights per year). In some cases the level of activity may indicate indi-
rect sources of emissions, such as transportation usage for a sports complex.
In the study, the area outside the Meadowlands planning district was
treated as the background region for purposes of determining emissions. The
same five-step procedures were followed, but both the activity categories and
the actual data available were far less detailed. Most activity categories
were treated as area sources and were aggregated from the county level to
grid cells of various sizes. Residential and non-residential square feet of
floor space (Step 1), BTU's per square foot (Step 2), propensity to use oil
versus gas (Step 3), and residential, industrial, and commercial fuel combustion
emission factors (Step 4) were used to determine emissions (Step 5). Most
other categories such as transportation, evaporation and incineration, were
treated as activities (Step 1) times emission factors (Step 4) yields emis-
sions (Step 5). Large separate sources, such as power plants, were separately
projected to 1990 based on current data and appropriate changes in their
emission characteristics; these were treated as point sources. Major roadways
near the Meadowland were treated as line sources using the aforementioned pro-
cedure.
3.4 Computational Techniques
The actual calculations to determine 1990 source emissions for the
Hackensack Meadowlands plans were carried out using computer routines within
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the AQUIP software system. All data inputs were completely standardized
in computer form, and all decisions involving the treatment of a specific
land use zone were likewise standardized in computer form.
Such computational procedures are quite complex. They include flags
which indicate, for example, that three residential zones are served by one
central heating system and should therefore be receded to the location of
that central heating system. Such flags provide the planner with the flexi-
bility to treat each land use zone uniquely, and thus provide a very powerful
analytical tool. They are, however, very time-consuming to formulate and
translate into the required objective computer form, and are very much
application specific rules, based on specific planning assumptions.
To illustrate, the calculations required for schools are complex
because the heating requirement for a school (BTUs per classroom) is a func-
tion of the residential area it serves. Flags in the computer program would
show, for example, that a particular school (and its commensurate heating
requirement) are linked to certain residential areas. Then, specific
planning-related information is needed on the number of pupils per classroom,
the number of pupils or children per dwelling unit, and the percentage of
these children who would go to the type of school under consideration--primary
or secondary. Such information was determined in this study in consultation
with the Meadowlands planning staff.
A similar complex linkage occurs in the computation of emissions for
certain commercial activities, such as neighborhood shopping areas, where the
amount of space was found to be a function of the size of the residential
apartment clusters as specified in the Hackensack Meadowlands Zoning Regu-
lations; furthermore, because the development is most likely to be built
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as one unit, it was assumed that the heat would be supplied by the same
central system that serves the apartments.
3.5 Conclusions
The application of the emissions projection methodology to the Meadow-
lands plans showed that the five-step procedures were workable and, in fact,
quite adaptable to the land use considerations that were encountered. In
particular, the development of a conversion factors catalog and sets of
default parameters demonstrated that the planner need input only planning-
related data to use a tool such as the AQUIP System.
However, it was found that the planner must specify data he does not
normally deal with, such as the sizes of developments in terms of their heating
requirements, and the types of manufacturing operations anticipated.
Furthermore, the level of detail available for empirically deriving the
default parameters was unsatisfactory for discerning between related activi-
ties; this was particularly true for deciding fuel use and determining
process-related emissions. Consequently, the greatest need for further work
involves the empirical derivation of activity indices and default parameters.
The availability of current region-wide emissions data for model validation
and for the determination of the projective indices was also inadequate.
The methodology, as developed and applied allows meaningful comparisons
to be made among the alternative Hackensack Meadowlands land use plans. In
addition the methodology should be useful in determining the effect of incre-
mental changes in a plan, or in the testing of additional plans.
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4. METHODOLOGY FOR PROJECTING AIR QUALITY
4.1 General Description of the Air Quality Projection Model
The basic goal of the atmospheric diffusion model development and
validation effort has been the calculation of seasonal and annual average
concentrations for the pollutants of interest (S02, CO, NOy, hydrocarbons
and particulates) expected within the planning region for the emission
patterns associated with various possible land use distributions that may
exist in 1990.
The model used for projecting air quality is called the ERT/MARTIK
atmospheric diffusion model. It is a gaussian plume model that follows
4
the physical and mathematical basis described by Martin and Tikvart and
documented in the report on the Air Quality Display Model. Numerous modifi-
cations have been incorporated into the ERT/MARTIK model to improve computa-
tional accuracy for receptors near source areas, to permit tradeoffs between
accuracy requirements and computation time, to permit improved flexibility
in the treatment of rectangular area sources of any size and location, and
to permit direct treatment of line sources.
The principal modifications incorporated into the ERT/MARTIK model
include:
1. Treatment of Area-Source Emissions
A major improvement of accuracy of representation was made by replac-
ing the virtual point source approximation to area source emissions with a
numerical integration procedure over the area source. The use of a virtual
point source representation for area sources results in a "sawtooth"
concentration profile in the crosswind direction at short distances downwind
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from a group of area source cells. The numerical integration scheme avoids
this difficulty. The integration is accomplished by summation of elemental
strips of the area source and may be used for any specified source height
and any wind direction. For efficiency of calculation, the computation
routine uses fewer elemental strips when the source receptor distance is large
and where finer elements would not significantly change the computed
concentrations. The maximum number of elemental strips to be used is
externally specified as a part of a set of input parameters that control
computational accuracy.
2. Treatment of Line-Source Emissions
Emissions from roadways may be represented as line sources. In order
to estimate the downwind concentration from these sources for any possible
wind direction and elevation, another numerical integration routine was
developed. This procedure involves approximating short segments of the
line representation with upwind virtual point sources. In a manner similar
to that of the area source integration, the number of virtual points per
unit length used depends upon the distance to the receptor and the desired
accuracy.
3. Flexibility of Operating Mode and Output Format
A major feature of the ERT/MARTIK model is the ability to isolate
the contributions to the concentration at receptors by simple choices of
input parameters. Thus, for example, the contributions from individual
sources, wind directions, or stability classes may be easily isolated.
4. Computational Efficiency Features
In addition to the controlled accuracy capabilities discussed in
terms of the integration routines for line and area type sources, a number
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of other specific improvements have been made to keep computation time
low. These include: (1) input specification of argument value ranges for
which exponentials may be approximated by simple functions; (2) simple
inverse scaling of concentration contributions as a function of wind speed,
for sources with zero effective plume rise; and (3) optimization of the
number of source-receptor geometry calculations for a given run.
5. Compatibility with Computer Core Limitations and AQUIP System
Software Interface Requirements
The model, which is compatible with IBM 360 computers, has also been
specially modified to permit its use on the RCA SPECTRA 70 computer operated
by the New Jersey Department of Health. Specially designed data storage and
data flow routines have been developed to comply with the core limitations
(i.e., 55,000 bytes) of the SPECTRA 70. Also, the model input and output
routines have been integrated into the AQUIP software system (for example,
the LANTRAN program which computes emissions source distributions from given
planning parameters, and the SYMAP computer graphics program, which provides
general display capabilities for land use, emissions and air quality data).
4.2 Basis of the Model: The Gaussian Plume Equation
The model calculations are based upon multiple applications, and
integrated forms, of the gaussian plume equation, which represents the con-
centration pattern downwind from a point source. The general form of the
equation is
[-1/2
2 2
exp [-1/2 (5-lJi ) ] + exp [-1/2 (^-i-H ) ] >> (1)
0 z CTz
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where
(x,y,z) are the (upwind, cross-wind and vertical)
components of a cartesian coordinate system, such
that the receptor point is located at or vertically
above the origin (expressed in units of length) and
the source at the point (x,y,H)
H is the effective height of emission and therefore
the centerline height of the plume (length)
q is source strength (mass/time)
a , a are dispersion coefficients that are measures of
y z c
cross-wind and vertical plume spread. These two
parameters are functions of downwind distance and
atmospheric stability (length)
u is average wind speed (length/time)
Figure 3 illustrates the geometry for the plume equation. The source
base is at z = 0 in the coordinate system, and the plume center-line reaches
an equilibrium height H at some distance downwind from the source.
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Plume Axis
(downwind)
(*ry,o)
y
(crosswind)
X ^ (upwind)
Figure 3 Coordinate System Showing Gaussian Distributions in the
Horizontal and Vertical (Ref.: Turner (1969), Workbook
of Atmospherji Dispersion Estimates, PHS Publication
No. AP-26).
5+14
35
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The Task 2 Report contains a description of the gaussian plume equation,
including: (1) a list of the limiting assumptions associated with its use,
(2) the method of using integrated forms of the equation for the calculation
of seasonal and annual average concentration levels, and (3) methods for
calculating concentrations resulting from point, line and area sources, based
on the plume equation.
4.3 Data Used in the Modeling Studies
4.3.1 Data Requirements
Three principal types of data are required for an atmospheric dis-
persion model analysis. These are:
1. Source Data
Emission data for all pollutants of interest must be available. The
emission data log may contain a combination of point, line and area sources.
Information required for each source includes emission rate, location of the
source, and engineering data necessary to determine plume rise.
2. Transport Data
This category of data generally includes meteorological data and infor-
mation on ground topography in the region of interest. The model requires
climatological records indicating the joint frequency of occurrence of wind
speed, wind direction and atmospheric stability classes appropriate for the
model region. The influence of topographic features is generally treated by
appropriate modifications to available wind speed and direction data. In the
present analysis, data from Newark Airport were judged to be representative
of the model region and were used without modification.
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3. Concentration Data
Air quality measurement data must be used for validation of the model
calculations. If it were possible to model atmospheric transport and dis-
persion processes with great reliability, it would not be necessary to
incorporate ambient atmosphere monitoring data in the model program.
However, current capabilities with models require direct comparisons of
model results with actual measurements data. For the present study an array
of air quality monitoring data gathered by the New Jersey Department of
Health at several locations near the planning region was used as the basis
for model validation.
4.3.2 Meteorological Data Selected for Use
After a review of several possiblities it was determined that the
National Weather Service records for Newark Airport should be used as the
meteorological input data in this study. The Newark Airport location is
approximately 5 km from the southwestern corner of the Meadowlands planning
region. For determination of the influence region, the Newark wind direction
rose data for 1956-1965 were examined. For model validation studies, the
stability wind rose data (available as output from the STAR program at the
National Climatic Center, Asheville, North Carolina) for the Calendar Year
1970 were employed. For model projections to 1990, the STAR program clima-
tological data for the 10-year period 1956-1965 were used. The 1956-1965
record represents the most recent, 10-year record of hourly observations
available for use in the model projections.
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4.3.3 Emission Data Selected for Use
The emission data selected for use in the model study were defined
according to four geographical zones. These zones are:
Zone 1: Meadowlands plan boundary
Zone 2: Approximately 1 mile beyond the boundary of Zone 1;
defined by town lines except to the south (Newark
and Jersey City), and includes Secaucus.
Zone 3: Approximately 5 miles beyond the boundary of Zone 2;
defined by town lines; includes Manhattan in the New
York part of the region.
Zone 4: Remaining New Jersey and New York counties
in the Abatement Region (1955/1966).
Other: Connecticut counties in the NY-NJ-Conn. Abatement Region
These four zones are illustrated in Figure 4. Selection rules defining
the differences in the method of treatment of source emissions data in each
of the four zones are described in the Task 2 Report (ERT Doc. No. P-244-2).
4.3.4 Concentration Data Selected for Use
Sources of measured ambient air quality data evaluated during the study
included the New Jersey continuous air monitoring network (including two
major trailer sites at Newark ana Bayonne near the planning region and other
nearby satellite monitoring stations) and the New Jersey high-volume sampler
network. Also evaluated were data from the 38-station air quality monitor-
ing networks operated by New York City, data obtained at Secaucus by the
U. S. Public Health Service between March 1969 and February 1970, measure-
38
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NEW Y/O R K
IIUUINGTON
Figure 4 Illustration of the Four Geographical Zones used in the
Development of the Emission Inventory.
39
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ments during the summer of 1966 made in support of the New York-New Jersey
Interstate Abatement Activity, and other data in southern New York and
northern New Jersey available in the National Aerometric Data Bank.
Several types of data from these sources were employed during trial
calculations, and were examined extensively during initial validation studies.
For specific calibration of the model, it was decided to use data only of
the same type (from the New Jersey network), and from locations nearest to
the planning region. Therefore, data from five stations in the New Jersey
network (Newark, Bayonne, Jersey City, Hackensack and Paterson) were chosen.
Model calibration parameters were developed for summer, winter and annual
cases from these five locations.
4.4 Model Validation Procedures
4.4.1 Objectives
The primary objective of the validation effort was to assure that the
model adequately predicted concentration values over the time and ppace
scales of interest and over the range of expected input data values. Vali-
dating a model implies a detailed investigation of the model results and a
comparison of those results with measured values in order to identify and
evaluate discrepancies. If the model results compare well with the observed
data or if, for the applications to be made, simple correction factors are
deemed appropriate, the model may then be simply calibrated with the observed
data. On the other hand, if systematic discrepancies are found, the investi-
gation may suggest alterations of model parameters or of the model mechanics
that would improve the representativeness of the model. A final calibration
generally is required as the last stage of the validation procedure to best
adjust for remaining discrepancies between observed and predicted results.
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4.4.2 Procedures for Validating Models
The procedures for validating models will differ somewhat from applica-
tion to application depending upon the nature and purpose of the study and
depending upon the quality of the available data. The validation procedure
will normally require a thorough study of the implications of model assump-
tions and the performance of "sensitivity" studies for various input para-
meters. In this study the following sensitivity tests were carried out and
evaluated:
1. Inclusion of Pollutant Half Lives
The gross effects of removal processes for gaseous pollutants can be
simulated by the inclusion of an exponential time decay term.
2. Refinement of Area Source Grid and Inclusion of Nearby Roadways
Minor sources in the immediate vicinity of the sampling locations will
have a strong influence on air quality at the sampling locations and the re-
sultant measurements may not be representative of regional scale air quality.
3. Incorporation of the Effects of Correlation Between Diurnal
Meteorological Variations and Pollutant Emissions Rates
Emission rates of transportation and industrial related pollutants
are lower during nighttime hours. Because the atmosphere is on the average
more stable at night, models that do not include diurnal variations in
source strength tend to overpredict seasonal and annual average pollutant
levels.
41
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4. Incorporation of Effects of Correlation Between Wind Direction
and Emission Rates
Winter emission rates associated with space heating are expected to
be positively correlated with the cooler northerly winds. Neglect of this
mechanism causes models to overpredict space heating-related pollutant
levels.
5. Modification of Dispersive Statistics
Because of reduced evaporative cooling and increased capture of incom-
ing solar radiation in urbanized areas, thermal convection from the ground
is more vigorous than in rural areas. In addition, because of their built-
up nature, urban areas are aerodynamically rougher than rural areas. These
two factors cause enhanced mixing of pollutants and increased plume disper-
sion spread rates.
6. Modification of Assumed Mixing Depths
For similar reasons the mean mixing depth for urban areas is expected
to be larger than that assumed for rural areas.
7. Modification of Airport Velocity Measurements
Several modifications to the airport wind speed measurements are
possible:
a. The low level measurements of wind velocity at Newark airport
are on the average lower than wind speeds existing at higher levels, causing
different effects on ground-level concentrations depending on source ele-
vation.
b. The wind speed frequency records classify the lowest speed cases (calm)
as values between 0 and 3 knots (1.54 m/s). The average wind speed that really
42
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occurs during "calm" conditions (velocities too low to be reliably read by
the anemometer) is likely to be skewed toward the 3-knot limit.
c. The effect of the increased "roughness" of urban areas may be
simulated by reducing wind speeds in the lower boundary layer.
4.4.3 Modifications Made to the Model Used for the 1990 Projections
Three fundamental criteria were used to determine which modifications
or parameter changes to incorporate in the model for the 1990 projections:
1. Modifications or parameter changes must be physically realistic;
thus parameters chosen must be within the range of experimentally measured
values.
2. Modifications or parameter changes must be appropriate for use
in the planning year 1990.
3. The evaluation of modifications or parameter changes must be
based primarily on their effect on the regionally averaged agreement of
calculated versus observed values, rather than on agreement for individual
stations.
On the basis of these criteria, only changes in the meteorological
parameters were adopted in the model. The emission rate-dependent mod-
ifications were not appropriate for the seasonal and annual average calcu-
lations, and their effects were left to be corrected by the final calibra-
tion. The modifications incorporated for the 1990 case were:
1. A half-life of 3 hours was assigned to SO- emissions.
43
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2. Vertical spread statistics were adopted from the McElroy-Pooler
study in St. Louis .
3. Velocities for use in the computation of plume rise were computed
from a power law formula, recognizing the increase of velocity above the
surface level.
4.4.4 Final Calibration of the Model
With the parameter modifications implemented in the model, final
validation runs were made for the five receptors for the winter, summer
and annual cases. The ratio of the predicted to measured concentrations was
then calculated for each station, for each season, and for each pollutant for
which data were obtained. For the sites used in the validation, these ratios
were used as simple calibration factors. For estimation of concentrations
at any other-location within the planning region, averages of the calibra-
tion factors for the entire region were derived and used for each pollutant.
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5. OPERATIONAL FEATURES OF THE AQUIP SYSTEM SOFTWARE
5.1 Overview of the AQUIP System Software
The software components of the AQUIP System provide the analytical tools
necessary to undertake the air pollution impact of land use plans. The
AQUIP software system makes use of input data sets and model parameter data
sets, performs computations using four basic computer programs, and provides
tabular and graphical outputs of the results. The logical relationships
among these elements of the software are shown in the summary flow chart of
Figure 5. Data sets are shown as rectangles, computation steps as circles,
and printed output as document symbols. In addition, each element is iden-
tified by a code made up of a generic letter followed by a number. The
latter prefixes and their meanings are:
I - Input data set, prepared by the system user.
M - Model parameter data set, established initially for the study
conditions, and modified only as .necessary for updates to the
model.
P - Computation step involving one of the four basic computer
programs.
C - Computed data set formed as an output of one computation step
and used as an input to another.
T - Tabulated outputs (or line printer graphics) delivered to the
system user.
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e/1
O
C
O
H
13
C
oj
0)
00
ni
Q
LO
3
bo
H
a,
46
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This identification procedure is used consistently in this section to
enable each element of the AQUIP System to be identified and described. In
the following paragraphs the four principal computer programs, which deter-
mine the overall operating modes and capabilities of the AQUIP System, are
discussed in terms of their specific functions, information flows, data
format requirements and run options. In addition, several of the important
points of interaction between the planner and the model are described.
5.2 Planning Inputs
The objective of the AQUIP System is to test hypothetical configurations
of land uses with repect to their impact upon air quality, and to compare and
rank them in relation to one another. The primary input to the AQUIP System
is therefore a numerical description of a land use plan. Thus, the first ele-
ment of the AQUIP software system involves the preparation of land use data.
Ultimately, the necessary form of the numerical description of the plan is an
emissions inventory for input to the ERT/MARTIK diffusion modeling program.
Although the data could be prepared in this form to begin with, it is more
practical (particularly in view of the complex nature of the emissions pro-
jection process) to prepare the inputs in a form as close as possible to the
actual planning variables associated with the plan.
For this reason, original land use data are prepared by the user, working
directly from a map of the study region. Land use activities are defined,
classified, and indicated as point, line, or area "figures" on the map. Area
zones are represented as polygons (i.e., bounded by straight-line segments);
and highways are represented as connected straight-line segments. Other
47
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activities that ultimately can be represented as point emission sources
*
(e.g., power plants) are also indicated.
Each activity region or figure is assigned a set of activity codes and
values that define the procedures used to compute its emissions. For
example, a residential region could be represented as a polygon and assigned
a "residential classification code" together with values that determine how
it is to be treated in computing emissions. Geographical data for each figure
are prepared by coding the coordinates of the vertices of its boundaries.
These data are then incorporated into the "original land use data" (1-1),
together with the codes and values. The result is a data set describing a
land use plan in terms of planning variables to which the emissions-
projection methodologies (in the LANTRAN computer program) can be applied.
The activity codes used consist of a letter followed by two digits. For
example, the letter R was used for residential with the first digit relating
to the appropriate land use plan and the second to the density of a particular
residential zone. Other types of land uses were treated in a similar manner.
For manufacturing, however, the letter S followed by the appropriate 2-digit
SIC code was used.
Highways and some types of point source activities (such as power plants
and incinerators) are treated separately. In the case of the highway data,
the geographical coordinates of the end-points of the various links are
coded, together with emissions derived by application of emissions factors
to traffic volume projections. These data become the "highway emissions"
data set (1-2), used as a direct input to the ERT/MARTIK diffusion modeling
program.
Similarly, the geographical coordinates which locate power plants,
incinerators, or other point-sources are coded together with direct emission
48
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rates and stack parameters determined separately for each source. These
data become the "point-source" data set (1-3), used as a direct input to
the diffusion model.
5.3 Air Quality Prediction Model
Having prepared data sets representing the original land use data as
described above, the computation of emissions from the coded area zone acti-
vity data is performed by the LANTRAN program. The computation involves the
allocation of data defined on the set of figures to a grid-cell system in
order to represent the large number of small discrete sources as area sources.
Because the diffusion model requires rectangular (not necessarily square) area
sources, LANTRAN transforms figure-based data to grid-based data. In principle,
it is emissions defined on the figures that are allocated by LANTRAN; in fact,
the program performs one additional step: land use data are first converted to
emissions data, which are then allocated to the grid system. Some of the emis-
sions data are, however, represented in the output as points, rather than as
gridded area sources because: (1) certain activities generate point source emis
sions [such as schools or hosptials within residential areas); and (2) individual
discrete sources with emissions greater than some threshold must be considered
separately. The result of this computation step is the "point and gridded
area source" data set (Ol) in the form of card decks (corresponding to each
averaging period) for use as a direct input to the diffusion model. LANTRAN
also produces tabulated output describing the emissions characteristics of
the input data, and graphical displays of emission rates by pollutant as
allocated to the chosen grid system.
The next step involves the use of the ERT/MARTIK air quality prediction
model. This model performs the essential transition from the emissions
49
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generated by a particular land use plan to the air quality concentrations
associated with the plan. The emissions inventory data sets, (1-2), (1-3)
and C-l) as described above, are input to the MARTIK program, along with the
model data sets that define the receptor sites at which concentrations
are to be computed, the meteorological parameters, and the emissions assigned
to the "background" region, i.e., the region outside the plan boundaries.
The result of this step is a set of computed concentrations for each pollutant,
at each of the desired receptor sites. The MARTIK calculations define the
"computed air quality" for each appropriate seasonal or annual time-averaging
period. The results are printed as a tabulated output (T-2) and are passed
to additional AQUIP operations as the data set (C-2).
The final step involved in the AQUIP air quality prediction model is
the plotting of computed air pollution concentrations using the SYMAP pro-
gram. The result of a SYMAP plotting run is a graphical display (T-3) of the
study area, with printer-generated shading proportional to the computed con-
centration at each point. An example of this contour map is shown in
Figure 6. The data used as input to the program is the set of receptor
"values" computed by MARTIK and output as the data set (C-2). Data pre-
pared by the system user consists of options that select the pollutant to be
displayed, and that control the appearance of the output map.
5.4 Air Quality Impact Model
The initial step in the use of the air quality impact model is the
preparation of land use and other data for correlation with air quality data.
In this step, subsets of the original land use data are selected and processed
for correlation with the predicted air quality associated with the plan. The
computations involved in this process are performed by the LANTRAN program.
Operation of the program is similar to its use in the preparation of emis-
50
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sions data, except that, instead of emissions defined on a set of land use
figures, the quantities allocated are variables such as population density
and acres of industrial land use. The result of this step is a data set,
referred to as the "correlation data set" (C-4), which is created in the
form of an output card deck for input to the IMPACT program. In addition,
grid plots of each selected land use can be generated.
The result of a diffusion analysis with the ERT/MARTIK program is a set
of concentrations computed for the given receptor sites. However, in order
to perform the impact analysis, these results must be converted to mean air
quality defined on the grid system chosen for analysis. This conversion is
performed by the LANTRAN program, which constructs a mean surface through the
receptor points and then assigns to each cell of the grid system the surface
value at the cell center. This step is necessary because there is no direct
relationship between the spacing or distribution of receptor points and the
grid system used in the impact analysis model. The computation step may be
performed routinely, with no interaction from the user (other than to define
the grid systemJ. The results of the air quality prediction model calculations
are contained in the data set (C-2) produced by the ERT/MARTIK program and used
as an input to LANTRAN. The tabulated output from LANTRAN lists the concen-
trations as allocated to each grid cell, and a corresponding graphical output
can be generated if desired. Output from the program is the gridded air
quality data set (C-3) and is used as an input to the impact analysis
procedures.
The final step in the AQUIP modeling system is the analysis of the air
pollution impact of the original land use data. This step brings together
the various data sets of the system, such as land use data or concentrations
data, for final evaluation and ranking of planning alternatives. The planner
52
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.interacts directly with the AQUIP model at this point by defining the criteria
by which the plan and its alternatives are to be ranked, and by specifying
the desired set of operations to manipulate the data sets. The planner codes
these analytical procedures into the IMPACT computer program using a simple
"hyper-language". Any number of gridded data sets may be brought together,
and any number of new data sets can be created. In general, the specified
analytical operations produce quantitative information for each cell of the
grid system. The results are tabulated and can be presented graphically as
grid plots. Examples of the types of analyses which may be performed using
the IMPACT program include the comparison of projected air quality with air
quality standards, the correlation of air quality data with land use data,
the display of specific land use data (for example, the location of critical
receptors), the calculation of impact parameters, and the calculation of
plan ranking indices.
53
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6. EVALUATION AND RANKING OF THE HACKENSACK MEADOWLANDS LAND USE PLANS
6.1 General Air Quality Criteria for Plan Evaluation
The basic objective of this analysis was to demonstrate the AQUIP
System methodologies for considering air pollution in the planning process
through the direct application of such methodologies to the planning alter-
natives developed for the Meadowlands. Regional air quality concentrations
for total suspended particulates (TSP), sulfur dioxide (SO ), carbon monox-
ide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), and nitrogen oxides (NOy) were analyzed in
terms of annual averages and summer and winter seasonal averages. The
analysis also included the influence of sources outside the Hackensack
Meadowland, i.e., background sources, on air quality within the planning
region.
The evaluation of the land use plans was based primarily on the con-
siderations of:
1. Compliance with ambient air quality standards.
2. The influence of background concentrations on total air quality
within each plan.
3. Average regional air quality concentration levels.
4. The percent variation in total air quality among the plans
on a pollutant by pollutant basis.
5. Average exposures of critical receptors and land use categories
to pollutant concentrations.
In order to assess compliance with standards, the calculated annual
55
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average pollutant concentrations were compared with corresponding annual
average standards, or in cases where such standards do not exist, with
equivalent values of ambient air quality standards extrapolated to annual
time-averaging periods. The standards (or their extrapolated equivalents)
used in this analysis are summarized in Table 1 along with an indication
of the method of derivation.
A qualitative evaluation of plans was carried out by means of a visual
examination of air quality contours and the subjective correlation of such
contours with the land use categories of each plan. A quantitative analysis
and evaluation of plans was carried out by the calculation of quantitative
measures of impact. This quantitative evaluation was based primarily on
"averaged" impacts (such as average regional concentration levels or average
levels of exposure to specific receptors) rather than "integrated" impacts
(which are proportional to both average concentration levels and the total
number of receptors affected).
In addition to these criteria, the evaluation of the plans was subject
to other constraints and general considerations. In particular, the analysis
was oriented toward regional effects based on the calculation of mean annual
pollutant concentration levels. The analysis considered the effects on
regional air quality and on critical receptors resulting primarily from
differences among the four plans in: (1) the percent mix of land use cate-
gories; (2) the relative locations of land uses; and (3) the relative inten-
sity of land use activities. The direct relationship between pollutant concen-
trations and impacts such as health effects and socio-economic consequences
were not considered. Moreover, the analysis did not consider localized or
56
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TABLE 1
EQUIVALENT ANNUAL AVERAGE AIR QUALITY STANDARDS
Pollutant
TSP
SO 2
CO
HC
NOX
Standard
(ug/m )
70.1
53.0
1425.0
160.0
100.0
(ppm)
-- m
0.02
1.25
0.24 <3'
0.05<3>
Derivation
From N.J. (geometric
mean) annual standard (2)
N. J. annual standard
Extrapolation from Federal 8-hour
standard using statistics from
N.J. measurements data (2)
Federal (secondary) 3-hour
standard (4)
Federal (secondary) annual
standard
(1) Annual arithmetic mean, never to be exceeded
(2) Extrapolations based on use of Larsen Model. (Larsen, R.I.
"A Mathematical Model for Relating Air Quality Measurements
to Air Quality Standards", Office of Air Programs Publication.
No. AP-89, EPA, Office of Air Programs, Research Triangle Park,
N.C., 1971.)
(3) Conversion to ppm not strictly possible without specifying
composition of pollutant: HC is based on CH.; NO is based
on NO . x
2
(4) Extrapolation of 3-hour (6 to 9 AM) standard to an annual
standard not considered valid.
57
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microscale impacts, nor the interrelationship between air pollution effects
and other environmental concerns such as water quality or solid waste dis-
posal.
6.2 Summary of Land Use Plan Characteristics
The four alternative 1990 Comprehensive Land Use Plans for the Hacken-
sack Meadowlands District analyzed in this study are designated as:
Plan 1 - The Master Plan
Plan 1A - Self-Supporting New Town
Plan IB - Expansion of New York City Urban Core
Plan 1C - Trend Development Based on Current Zoning
These plans are shown in Figures 7 through 10. The basic data and assumptions
concerning the land uses for each of the plans were supplied by the HMDC and
were processed and coded for input to the AQUIP System. The resultant per-
cent mix of land use categories, together with population-and traffic projec-
tions for the different plans are summarized in Table 2.
The four plans show significant differences both in the relative loca-
tion of land uses and in the percent mix of land use categories. Plan 1,
the Master Plan, is characterized by a large amount of open space (31%
including open water), a relatively low population (148,000), and a broad
mix of industrial and commercial activities. The dominant feature of the
plan is the expansive area along the Hackensack River devoted to parks and
conservation land. Only 6?« of the total area is allocated to residential
area, which consists mostly of very high density island high-rise apartments and
parkside residential areas located at points within this open space region.
58
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4520
45 l6
4- 4
4 -f 4- 4 4
572 573 574 575 576 577 " 578 " 579 580 581 582 583 584
""! Manufacturing
\ ', ^ \ Parks
>, ' '.M
- ; I A Conservation
*lilJ
;^^^ Low Density Residential (10 Du)
j Island Residential (5O Du}
1 Parkside Residential 150 Du)
_-J Special Uses
Mass Transit and Commuter Railroad
Turnpike and Limited Access
O [y/'/^'j Cultural Cente
Hjjjjjll Transportation Center
^^^ Research
/- ,'j Commercial Recreation
^HHS
^S^d Hotel-Office-Highway Commercial
Figure 7 Alternative Meadowlands Land Use Plan No. l--The Master Plan
59
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45 l9
45 l4
45 1J
45"
572 573 574 575 576 577
579 580 581 582 583 584
F^1^ J~\ Manufacturing O [/'*';''vl Cultural Center
\ ^--' \w' \ '] Parks fo^W Business District
iv'::"."*;"/;'i Low Density Residential (10 Du) \ \ Wafer
[ \ Medium Dens/ty Residential (2O Du) \ Commercial Recreation
High Density Residential fSO Du} ||nTJfTj|j|j|| Hotel-Office-Highway Commercia'
p- '---- l] Special Uses Distribution
_ Turnpike and Limited Access
Figure 8 Alternative Meadowlands Land Use Plan No. 1A-
Self-Supporting New Town
60
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45 '"
45' '
572 573 574 575 576 577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584
k"~~Z- j Manufacturing
\ l'^S~ jl parks
yl/////////k Low Density Residential (10 Du)
I Medium Density Restdenha/ {3ODu}
High Osns/fy Residential (5O Du)
\- ~"~\ Other Uses
Mass Transit
Turnpike and Limited Access
O [ ,-''j Cultural Center
Business D>stnct
j Commercial Recreation
iS^ii Hotel-Office-Highway Commercial
Distribution
Figure 9 Alternative Meadowlands Land Use Plan No. IB-
Expansion of New York City Urban Core
61
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572 573 574 575 576 571 *i7Q 579 580 581 582 583 584
Manufacturing
'>'','] Parks
'ft/'/A i-OM Density Residential
(luUA
ffl|jjj| Transportation Center
Turnpike and Limited Access
\ Water
Hotel-Office-Highway Commercial
Commercial Recreation
Figure 10 Alternative Meadowlands Land Use Plan No. 1C-
Trend Development Based on Current Zoning
62
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TABLE 2
SUMMARY OF LAND USE INFORMATION FOR
HACKENSACK MEADOWLANDS PLANS
Land Use Categories
Residential/ *
10 DU/AC (dwelling units/acre)
20 DU/AC
30 DU/AC
50 DU/AC
80 DU/AC
TOTAL
Commercial § Industrial
Commercial
i Manufacturing (light § heavy)
Research
Distribution
Special Use
Airport § Transportation Center
TOTAL
Open Space
Water
Parks § Conservation
TOTAL
Other(1^
Highway fj Railroad
Special
TOTAL
TOTAL LAND AREA
(19,600 acres)
m
Total Population^ J
f21
Total Students1- '
Total VMT/Year (xlO6) ^
Percent of Total Plan Area
Plan: 1
1
5
6
4
8
8
22
1
5
48
11
20
31
12
3
15
100%
147,604
25,758
1,040
1A
2
7
8
17
4
14
0
19
0
4
41
7
11
18
21
3
24
100%
408,080
59,689
1,405
IB
1
5
15
21
3
15
0
22
0
4
44
7
11
18
15
2
17
100%
1C
1
1
1
18
0
50
0
4
73
7
2
9
14
3
17
100%
469,788 8,161
114,647 0
1,515 970
(1) As coded from land use maps -- figures used may not correspond exactly
with original estimates given by the HMDC.
(2) As computed from land use data.
(3) Totals include the regional network traffic of 930x10 VMT: in addition,
4x10" hrs. idling/yr. are assumed for parking lots for all plans.
63
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The business and commercial activities are located primarily in the central
region of the meadowlands west of the Hackensack River. Industrial activi-
ties (i.e., manufacturing, 8%, and distribution, 22%) are largely located in
the eastern half of the region, although a sizable area (8%) devoted to
research industry is located along the western border of the district. Plan
1 also includes various modes of public transportation, including novel means
of waterborne transit, as well as new roadways. Arterials servicing the
high density residential areas are located to minimize local surface street
traffic.
In contrast, Plan 1A., the Self-Contained New Town, is characterized
by a higher population (408,000), greater residential area (17%), and less
open space (18%). The open space areas are predominantly located on the
fringes of residential areas, acting as buffers to surrounding industrial
areas. The primary commercial and industrial land use activities are devoted
to manufacturing (14%) and distribution (19%). A significant feature of this
plan is that essentially all of the population is located within the central
portion of the planning region, spread from west to east, with low density
areas in the west and extremely high density areas in the east. Furthermore,
nearly all manufacturing activity is located in the southern portion of the
planning region, while distribution activities are located in both the eastern
portion of the region and in the vicinity of Teterboro airport. Character-
istically, major access roadways are on the fringe of the residential areas
to reduce surface street traffic. Since it is assumed that employment will
be served mostly by local population, and that most of the journey to work
trips will be served by the local roadway system, a significantly high per-
centage of land use is devoted to highways (21%). Moreover, no rapid transit
64
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is indicated in the plan. Consequently, the total miles of vehicular traffic
projected for this plan (1.4 billion VMT/year) reflects both the higher pop-
ulation and the increased levels of local traffic.
Plan IB, the New York City Urban Core Expansion, is nearly identical
to Plan 1A in percent mix of land use categories but has a significantly
different location of these land use activities within the planning region.
The primary difference is that nearly all residential area (21%) is located
in the western part of the district; and while Plan 1A has areas of low and
extremely high density dwelling units, Plan IB has mostly intermediate density
areas. The eastern portion of the Meadowlands is predominantly devoted to
commercial and industrial land use activities. Manufacturing (15%) is widely
dispersed, being located mostly in the southern and northeastern portions of
the district. Distribution (22%) is similarly dispersed widely throughout
the region. Again, as in Plan 1A, open space is used as a buffer between
residential and industrial areas, and to expand the open space along the
river. Plan IB has the largest projected population (nearly 470,000) and the
largest projected amount of traffic (over 1.5 billion VMT/year) of the four
plans. Because of its planned close relationship to the New York City urban
core, this plan also contains a substantial amount of rapid transit and com-
muter railroads in addition to new arterials to serve the residential areas.
Plan 1C, the Trending of Current Zoning, is significantly different
from the other three plans in the percent mix of land uses. It contains
less than 1% residential area (to serve a projected population of approxi-
mately 8,000), while having little open space (9%) except for that associated
with open water. Most of the region is devoted to commercial and industrial
activities (73%), primarily distribution (50%). Industrial areas (18%) were
65
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allocated by the HMDC to 10-acre plots. Furthermore, because of the low
population, this plan also has the lowest projected traffic (0.97 billion
VMT/year), reflecting primarily the regional network traffic.
6.3 Results of the Air Quality Analysis
The principal results of the analysis, evaluation and ranking of these
plans are summarized in the following paragraphs.
1. Annual average ambient air quality standards are met for the 1990
time period in all four plans for the Hackensack Meadowlands region for
three pollutants: SO-, CO, and NO... Annual average ambient air quality
standards are exceeded for 1990 in all four plans for two pollutants:
TSP and HC. The analysis also indicates that the projected background
concentration levels for both TSP and HC exceed ambient air quality
standards in 1990.
2. Analysis of the air quality of plans on the basis of individual
pollutants indicates that:
a. For TSP, maximum concentrations exceed the standard in all
four plans by a factor of approximately 2.5. Thus, air quality
for TSP is a critical problem and must be of concern to the planner.
b. For S0_, maximum concentrations are on the order of 55 to
of the standard. Furthermore, the variation among plans
in impact on average regional air quality is less than 15%.
Thus air quality for S0? is not a major problem and the
planner can be neutral (relative to regional air quality
criteria) in choosing among the four plans.
66
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c. Air quality for CO is of major concern within Plan IB, for
which the maximum concentration is approximately 90% of the
standard. Because maximum concentrations are less than 70%
of the standard and variation in impact on average regional
air quality is approximately 4%, the planner can be neutral
in choosing among the remaining three plans.
d. For HC. maximum concentrations exceed the standard in all
four plans by a factor of approximately 12, This is a
critical problem and must be of concern to the planner.
e. For NO , maximum concentrations are on the order of 65% of
A,
the standard, and variation in impact on average regional
air quality is approximately 7%. Thus, air quality for NO
X.
is not a major problem and the planner can be neutral in choosing
among the four plans.
3. Analysis of the total regional air pollutant concentration levels
and spatial patterns for the four alternative plans shows a significant
variation (up to 15%) among plans for all pollutants except hydrocarbons.
The quantitative ranking of plans in terms of the multipollutant impact
on total regional air quality indicates that Plan 1 is best (that is,
produces least average regional concentration levels), followed by Plans
IB, 1A and 1C, respectively.
4. The corresponding analysis of the impact resulting from regional
air quality concentration levels and spatial patterns on sensitive cate-
gories of land uses and receptors (primarily population) shows a significant
variation in impact among the four alternative land use plans. A quantita-
tive ranking of the alternative plans based on consideration of a number
67
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of impact measures indicates that Plan 1 Is best (that is, has the least
average exposure to the specified classes of receptors), followed by Plans
IB, 1A, and 1C, respectively.
5. Background air quality revels represent a major influence on
total air quality levels within the Hackensack Meadowlands planning region.
Background air quality accounts for between 65% and 99% of total concentra-
tion levels within the planning region and completely dominates the spatial
patterns of total air quality concentrations. The background air quality
contours for all pollutants show a north-south orientation with concentra-
tions increasing from west to east. This pattern of concentrations shows
both the strong influence of pollution from the New York City urban core
on Hackensack Meadowlands air quality levels. Because of these factors,
a significant spatial variation in background air quality levels occurs
over the Hackensack Meadowlands region. Consequently, the relative location
of land use activities becomes a significant factor in minimizing the
contribution of the specific plan to regional air quality levels and in
minimizing the impact of the resultant regional air quality levels on
specific receptors and land use categories.
6. Because background concentrations represent such a high percentage
of total air quality within the Meadowlands for any given plan, the resultant
variation among plans in total air quality necessarily will be small.
For example the maximum observed variations among the four plans in average
regional air quality occurs for SO and is less than 15%. As a consequence
land use planning may be regarded as an ineffective means for abatement
of regional air pollution in the vicinity of major urbanized areas unless
68
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the planning region is sufficiently large that "background" concentration
levels represent only a small percentage (for example, less than 50%) of
total air quality levels.
7. Analysis of the impact resulting from the alternative land use
plans on regional air pollutant concentration levels and spatial patterns
shows significant variations among plans due to: (1) the percent mix of
land use categories; (2) the relative location of land use categories; and
(3) the relative density or intensity of land use activities. The observed
variations in regional air pollutant concentration levels and spatial patterns
are found to be extremely sensitive to the percent mix of manufacturing
and transportation related land use activities. Manufacturing influences
primarily TSP, SO and NO concentrations, while transportation
Z A
activities influence the CO concentrations. As a consequence, these land
use categories should be located within a plan relative to the spatial
patterns of background concentration levels in order to minimize net impact
on total regional air quality levels.
8. In the Hackensack Meadowlands planning region, all land use activities
other than manufacturing and transportation have a negligible impact on re-
gional air quality levels and spatial patterns and therefore can be located
within a particular plan rather arbitrarily to provide minimum impact to
specific critical receptors and land use categories. Because the degree of
impact on critical receptors is especially sensitive to the relative location
of the receptors within the plan, the relative location of critical receptors
and land use categories represents an extremely important consideration in
the formulation and evaluation of land use plans. For example, it is observed
that those plans which rank best in terms of population exposure have resi-
69
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dential areas predominantly located in the western portions of the Hackensack
Meadowlands planning region where concentrations generally are at their
lowest levels.
9. Regional air quality is relatively insensitive to the amount of
open space within any of the four plans. A direct tradeoff from manufacturing
to open space land use for example, would be highly beneficial to regional air
quality levels, not because of the addition of open space within the plan,
but rather because of the deletion of manufacturing land uses.
10. The analysis of regional scale air quality considerations is not
sufficient to assess raicroscale impacts (that is, variations in concentrations
over short distances and short time periods). Consequently, caution is
urged in interpreting results of regional air quality impact analyses. Such
analyses will indicate which choice of a land use plan minimizes the impact
on regional air quality levels and on critical receptors, but may not
indicate the existence of, nor provide a solution to microscale impact
problems.
70
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7. PLANNING GUIDELINES
7.1 Introduction
A set of guidelines that can be generally applied to the land use
and transportation planning process for the consideration of air pollution
were derived from the results of the Hackensack Meadowlands air pollution
study. Consequently, these guidelines should be applied to other planning
situations only for the consideration of regional scale air quality.
Furthermore, because these guidelines are necessarily based on the
specific plan characteristics and assumptions for the Meadowlands, some of
the quantitative conclusions tend to be less generally applicable to other
plans and planning situations. Most of the guidelines, however, are given
in the form of qualitative statements of broadly applicable results.
The resultant planning guidelines describe the basic relationships
between air pollution considerations and their impact on land use planning
in three areas. The first is background air quality, which is shown to be
of paramount concern in plan design, especially in urban regions. The
second is the effect of the primary plan design factors that influence
regional air pollutant concentrations and spatial patterns: (1) the mix of
land use categories; (2) the location of land use categories within the
planning region; and (3) the intensity of land use activities. Third are
the topography and meteorology of the region, which should play an important
part in the consideration of air pollution by the planner.
71
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7.2 Effect of Background Sources on Air Quality
If the background levels of pollution are high within a planning area,
as is usually the case in urban regions, then the potential air pollution re-
sulting from the planning area by itself may be only a small percent of the
total air pollution. As a result, land use planning may not be an effective
means of reducing regional air pollution levels. However, because the actual
concentrations resulting from the plan itself may be large, selection of a land
use plan to minimize air pollution levels in the planning area is critically
important.
If the spatial variations in background concentration patterns are
significant, then it is essential to locate carefully land use activities
relative to such concentration patterns:
1. To meet ambient air quality standards.
2. To reduce the net regional pollutant concentrations.
3. To reduce the net impact of regional air pollution on critical
receptors, such as elementary schools, parks, playgrounds, nursing
homes, and hospitals.
Low background pollutant concentrations within a planning area may
occur in two ways. First, the planning area may be located within a non-
urbanized or non-industrialized area; and secondly, the planning area itself
may encompass a sufficiently large portion of the urban region so that the
relative influence of background concentrations is low. The result, in
either case, is that the percent variation among alternative land use plans
may be relatively large. Under such circumstances, land use planning can
be effective in reducing regional pollutant concentration levels. From an
alternative viewpoint, in regions having low background levels the planner
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has a greater degree of freedom in plan design to consider factors other
than air pollution because potentially the region can tolerate larger
pollutant levels from the plan without exceeding standards. Therefore, air
pollution should be an important consideration in the land use planning
process for regions having low background concentration levels.
As a consequence of observations based on the Meadowlands study it is
concluded that:
1. If total air pollutant concentration levels do not exceed ambient
air quality standards and if variation in impact from alternative
plans on total air quality is under 15% (an arbitrary but conser-
vative figure), then the planner can be neutral in his choice of
a plan with respect to regional air quality considerations. That
is, if necessary, he can give greater weight to planning consider-
ations other than air pollution in the selection of land use plans.
2. If background air pollutant concentration levels represent greater
than 60 to 70% of the total concentration levels, then land use
planning is not an effective means for the abatement of regional
air pollution problems.
3. Where feasible, the extent of the planning region should be
chosen such that background concentration levels represent less
than 30 to 40% of the total concentration levels in order to assure
that land use planning will be an effective means for the abate-
ment of regional air pollution problems.
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7.3 Effect of Plan Design Factors on Air Quality
Based on the results of the Hackensack Meadowlands air pollution study,
it is concluded that the plan design factors that have primary influence
on regional air pollutant concentrations and spatial patterns are the mix,
location, and intensity of land use activities.
7.3.1 Mix of Land Uses
The land use category designated as "Manufacturing" has the dominant
influence on TSP, SO , and NO concentration levels and patterns.
2 A
In fact, the emissions from this land use category are a factor of from
10 to 1000 times greater than those from all other land use categories
if examined on a basis of emissions per unit of lanH area. Motor vehicular
traffic is a dominant influence on CO concentration levels and patterns.
Over 90% of the CO emissions result from motor vehicle traffic, airport
operations, and other transportation-related land use activities.
Consequently, regional air quality is highly sensitive to the amount
of manufacturing and transportation-related land use categories and is
relatively insensitive to nearly all other land use categories. The rela-
tive sensitivity factors for each of the different land use categories are
listed in Table 3, which shows the annual emissions per unit land area
(or per unit activity where appropriate, such as emissions per VMT for
motor vehicular traffic, or emissions per hour of idling for parking lot
situations) as derived from planning assumptions specifically for the
Meadowlands land use plans. These sensitivities differ by pollutant as well
as by land use category.
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TABLE 3
SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED 1990 ANNUAL EMISSION RATES
FOR HACKENSACK MEADOWLANDS LAND USE CATEGORIES
Land Use Category
Residential^ '
10 Dwelling units/acre
20
30
50
80 " " "
Commercial 5 Industrial
Commercial
Manufacturing
Light
Heavy
Research
Distribution
Special Use
C 7^
Airport ^J
Transport Center
Cultural Center
Open Space
Other (3)
Highway (lb/106 VMT1
Parking Lots (lb/10 hrs idling)
Pollutant Emissions
(Ib/year/acre)
TSP
29
180
180
250
200
60
1100
5400
2
60
60
100
180
45
0
so2
1
120
120
160
140
45
1100
5400
15
45
45
1000
130
35
0
CO
30
4
4
5
4
1
10
60
1
1
1
3000
2
1
0
HC
12
54
54
75
63
12
140
900
5
12
12
350
36
9
0
NO
X
75
85
85
120
100
95
850
5400
35
95
95
100
300
70
0
Emission Factors
700
4
400
4
11000
12
1000
3
1500
1
(1) The particular numbers for residential emissions are a function of
type of fuel assumed for the Hackensack Meadowlands by building type
(single family versus high rise), the size of dwelling units as they
vary with density and building type, and the efficiencies of central
heating systems in addition to density. For example the numbers for
10 dwelling units/acre for the Meadowlands are radically different
from the others because this is the only residential category assumed
to be single family and to use natural gas as a fuel.
(2) Assumes 400,000 flights/year from Teterboro Airport, and 700 acre area.
(3) Activities are not specified on basis of emissions/unit area.
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It can be concluded on the basis of differences in these sensitivity
factors that open space is not a dominant influence on regional air quality
levels. Rather, regional air quality is far more sensitive to land use
categories having large emission rates. A direct trade off between manufac-
turing and open space land use, for example, would be highly beneficial to
regional air quality levels, not because of the addition of open space within
the land use plan, but rather because of the deletion of manufacturing.
7.3.2 Location of Land Uses
The location of land use categories is a second major factor in determin-
ing regional air quality patterns except when background concentrations are
high relative to those resulting from the plan alone. However, because critical
receptors are always exposed to total air quality levels (i.e., plan plus
background contributions), the location of land uses within the plan will
always have a major influence on receptor impacts, especially if background
concentration levels are high and have a significant degree of spatial vari-
ation.
Primary attention should be devoted to the location of the dominant land
use emission sources within the planning area relative to background con-
centration levels and patterns (especially where large variations in back-
ground levels and patterns occur within the planning region) to assure
compliance with appropriate standards. Dispersal of large individual emis-
sion sources (e.g., power plants or incinerators) may eliminate localized
problems or "hot spots", but will not especially reduce average ground level
concentrations throughout a region. Land use categories that are not especi-
ally sensitive to the effects of air pollution should be located in regions
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of higher background concentration levels in preference to those land use
categories that are more sensitive to the effects of air pollution. In
general, the latter should be located in regions of lower background concen-
trations to the greatest extent possible.
Land uses other than those few having very high emission rates can be
located rather arbitrarily within the planning region without significantly
affecting the air quality concentration levels and patterns on a regional
scale. Thus, in general, the planner can locate critical receptors within
the plan without causing any significant impact on regional air quality
levels in order to reduce the air pollution impact on these critical recep-
tors and land use activities.
Land use activities are usually interrelated and cannot be located
independently nor without the consideration of emissions associated with
such interrelated activities. For example, although residential areas,
commercial areas, and other centers of social and occupational activity
generally produce very low emissions directly, the placement of such activi-
ties will generate motor vehicle traffic, which in turn will influence con-
centration levels and patterns for CO and other automobile-related pollutants.
Finally, the location of land use categories, particularly those having
large emissions, can also benefit regional air quality concentration levels.
By dispersing such land use activities throughout the plan (rather than
concentrating such activities within a single region) lower average regional
air pollutant concentration levels can be achieved for planning alternatives
having similar mixes of land use categories. In effect, such dispersal of
large emission sources results in a larger effective mixing volume for the
pollutants, leading to lower average regional concentration levels.
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7.3.3 Intensity of Land Use
Intensity of land use, the third important plan design factor, refers
either to the fraction of acres of land use per acre of land area, or to the
actual density of land use activities such as population density or residential
dwelling units per acre.
For major* emission sources intensity can have a very significant impact
on regional air quality concentration levels, since air quality concentra-
tions are proportional to the total amount of manufacturing activity or to
total vehicle trip miles. The data in Table 3 again indicates the sensitivity
of regional air quality to levels of land use intensity. In general, intensity
of land use will have a minor impact on regional air quality in comparison to
the impact of the mix and location of land use categories. The primary im-
pact of variations in land use intensity will occur in terms of the impact
of pollutant levels on specific receptors primarily as a result of limiting
the number of receptors effected within the plan or within a specific region
of the plan.
7.4 Effects of Topography and Meteorology on Air Quality
Local topography and meteorological conditions have a major influence
upon air quality patterns. With careful consideration of these factors the
planner can enhance air quality within a region through appropriate plan
designs.
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7.4.1 Topography
Table 4 summarizes some of the principal effects of topography upon
air quality patterns. Air quality patterns in planning areas that are
relatively flat and homogeneous, such as the Hackensack Meadowlands, are
not significantly influenced by the conditions described in this table.
The local variation in surface roughness associated with development
plans (i.e., buildings, roadway rights-of-way, etc.) will be more important
than natural topography in determining microscale features in air quality
patterns. Thus, the results of the Meadowlands study are generally applic-
able to other planning areas that have relatively flat and homogeneous
terrain. On the other hand, the results of the present study are not con-
sidered to be representative of regions having highly variable or unusual
terrain.
7.4.2 Meteorological Effects
The four basic meteorological effects upon air quality levels are:
(1) advection, related to wind speed and direction; (2) diffusion, re-
lated to atmospheric turbulence levels; (3) transformation of pollutants,
related to humidity, available sunlight and the presence of other substances;
and (4) removal of pollutants, related to pollutant characteristics, pre-
cipitation and other factors not yet well understood.
In regional scale planning studies where the long time average concen-
tration profiles (i.e., seasonal and annual averages) are of primary con-
cern, the most important meteorological information is contained in the
long period climatological records available for the region. For evaluation
of seasonal and annual averages the following review of climatological data
is suggested:
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TABLE 4
PRINCIPAL EFFECTS OF TOPOGRAPHY UPON AIR QUALITY PATTERNS
Topographic Feature
Effects
1. Elevated regions
a. Increased wind speed (and in-
creased ventilation) over hill
tops.
b. Occasional impacting of eleva-
ted plumes on ground level.
2. Deep valleys
a. Channeling of wind flow along
the valley axis, resulting in
higher average concentrations
in the valley.
b. Development of stable, drainage
winds during calm, nighttime
conditions, resulting in higher
concentrations along the valley
floor.
3. Undulating regions
b.
Increased atmospheric turbulence
near the ground level during
times of moderate or strong
winds. This results in lower
pollutant concentrations at
locations near sources.
Accumulation of pollutants in
low spots during calm, nighttime
conditions (i.e., localized
drainage wind conditions).
4. Regions of tree cover
b.
Enhanced turbulence near the
ground during moderate or strong
winds, resulting in lower concen-
trations for locations near
sources.
In fully covered regions, block-
age of elevated plumes, result-
ing in lower concentrations at
ground level.
5. Bodies of water
a. Increased moisture content in
the local atmosphere, favoring
fog formation at low-lying spots,
and affecting the removal rate
of S02 and other pollutants from
the atmosphere.
b. For larger bodies of water,
formation of local circulation
(lake and sea breezes) which can
cause ground level fumigation on
the landward side of sources,
during sunny daytime conditions.
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1. Stability Wind Rose Data
This information is used for the model input data relative to
distributions of wind speed, wind direction and stability categories. The
climatological data should be representative of the planning area. In
situations where the terrain is significantly different in the planning
area compared to the nearest meteorological observing station, the climato-
logical records must be used with reservation, or must be modified to re-
flect conditions known to exist in the planning area.
2. Mixing Depth Climatology
Holzworth has summarized mixing depth information for all of the
contiguous United States. Low mixing depths, e.g., daytime depths less
than 500 meters, result in elevated concentration levels throughout the
planning region, because the normal vertical diffusion of pollutants is
inhibited. Most air pollution episodes occur during periods when low mix-
ing depths persist for two or more days. Although such episodes can occur
during any time of the year, the frequency of such episodes is greatest
during the autumn months in the northeastern coastal regions of the United
States.
Although the principal focus of these guidelines is the regional
scale, some general comments about localized air pollution impact can be
added. Two important cases are: (1) large, isolated sources with tall
stacks; and (2) ground level sources, such as highways.
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Large volume sources with tall stacks will produce maximum ground level
concentrations at distances of from 10 to 40 stack heights downwind. The
effective range of significant impact from such a stack depends on stack
height, mixing depth, wind speed, and other meteorological conditions, but
for general plan estimation purposes the effective radius of influence can
be considered to be approximately three times the distance between the source
and the point of maximum ground level concentration.
In the case of highways, emissions occur at near-ground level, and maxi-
mum concentrations occur in the immediate vicinity of the roadway. Maximum
concentrations may occur either within the roadway (especially for wide
roadways) or within the first 20 meters from the edge of the roadway. The
rate of decrease in concentration levels is large for such sources. Concen-
trations from roadways commonly are reduced to 10% of maximum concentration
levels (in the absence of background), within a distance of 100 to 500 meters
from the roadway edge, depending largely on local structures and terrain.
Therefore buffer zones (where no other sources occur and where public access
is limited) are particularly effective for minimizing impact from such sources,
The consideration of meteorology is critically important in the analysis
of air pollution consequences of land use plans. Although generally speaking
lower total emissions for a plan will result in lower total concentrations
within the planning region, it is important to evaluate and rank plans on
the basis of pollutant concentrations rather than emissions for several
reasons:
1. Air quality standards and health effects are related to concen-
tration levels.
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2. Meteorological conditions are critical in determining the capacity
of a region to assimilate local source emissions (that is, to
determine conditions under which planned land use developments
will exceed or comply with national ambient air quality standards).
3. Meteorology is critical in determining levels of background pollu-
tant concentration transported into and out of the planning region.
7.5 Limitations of Regional Air Quality Considerations
These suggested planning guidelines are convenient for making broad
planning estimates; for example, in developing basic concepts for plan design.
It is totally unwarranted, however, to assume that these guidelines are
sufficiently accurate to form the basis for planning decisions in any
planning situation. The level of detail and accuracy required for decision-
making can be obtained only by the detailed analysis and evaluation of plans
through use of the AQUIP System.
In addition, these guidelines, which were derived from regional scale
analytical results, are not applicable to the consideration of highly
localized (i.e., microscale) effects. For example, CO air quality over short
time periods and small distances is more likely to be determined by loca-
lized influences, such as peak-hour traffic, buildups of concentrations due
to the layout or structure of facilities, or to short-term extremes in
meteorological conditions. Thus, even though regional air quality concen-
trations and impacts may be minor, there may be serious localized pollution
problems.
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Finally, it must be cautioned that advice concerning the role of air
pollution considerations within the land use planning process is not parti-
cularly simple to give nor easy to apply: the planner must accommodate many
other issues and concerns; he is confronted with numerous constraints ranging
from financial resources to social and political attitudes; information upon
which to judge the costs, benefits, and other impacts of alternatives is
usually inadequate; and the administrative and legal difficulties of imple-
menting proposed plans can be severe. Futhermore, it is not usually the
primary concern of land use planning to assume the burden of abatement of
existing regional and local air pollution problems; this is more appropri-
ately the function of governmental air pollution control agencies. Rather,
the primary objective of considering air pollution in the land use planning
process is to augment existing air pollution control measures through appro-
priate planning measures in order to prevent conditions from occurring in the
long-term that would necessitate severe source emission control regulations.
The guidelines presented in this document represent considerations concerning
air pollution that are appropriate within the planning process to improve
region-wide air quality and to reduce the exposure of the general population
(as well as high-risk groups within the general population) to high pollutant
concentrations.
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8. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
In this Summary Report the basic results of this research effort have
been described in brief. Overall the work has focused on developing method-
ologies for incorporating air pollution into the planning process, applying
these methodologies to specific land use plans for the Hackensack Meadow-
lands, and deriving general planning guidelines from the results. The
specific conclusions resulting from each of these efforts have been described
in the above sections and are too numerous to summarize conveniently without
extensive repetition of text. Rather, this section enumerates the most im-
portant end results from this research and development effort, and discusses
the general applicability of these methodologies and results to other plan-
ning situations. Finally, a number of recommendations are listed which
indicate the direction that future research and development efforts should
take in order to further promote the development of methodologies and analy-
tical tools for the consideration of air pollution in the planning process.
8.1 Review of Major Accomplishments
As a direct consequence of this study effort, a number of important
advances have been made in the consideration of air pollution in the land
use and transportation planning process. Among the more significant of
these are the following:
1. Analytical tools have been developed that allow the planner
to assess air quality associated with land use planning altern-
atives primarily on the basis of the use of planning input data.
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2. Detailed procedures have been developed for the use of such
analytical tools for incorporating air pollution considerations
directly into the planning process.
3. The use and utility of these procedures and analytical tools
have been demonstrated by application to the evaluation of the
Hackensack Meadowlands land use plans; the procedures developed
are operational tools for application to actual planning situa-
tions.
4. The AQUIP System software has been implemented on computer
facilities of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Pro-
tection, and represents a demonstrated operational working
tool for use by planners and air pollution control officials
alike.
5. A set of planning guidelines of broad applicability to other
similar planning situations has been derived from air quality
analysis of the Hackensack Meadowlands land use plans.
Because every attempt has been made to incorporate state-of-the-art
technology in the development of these procedures and analytical tools,
it is worthwhile to enumerate briefly some of their more significant fea-
tures .
The AQUIP System is the first tool that permits the use of planning
data as a direct input to the assessment of air pollution associated with
land use plans. Because the planner must also make use of types of data
that he does not normally deal with in the planning process, he may at
times not be able to specify all the data required. Through the use of a
conversion factors catalogue and sets of default parameters incorporated
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into the AQUIP System software, the planner can run the programs despite
problems associated with missing or unavailable data. Moreover, the pro-
grams are designed to permit easy modification of input data so that as missing
data become available (or as better estimates of data, such as emission fac-
tors, are made), they can be inserted to update the air pollution analysis.
Although the initialization of the data base is a large undertaking, incre-
mental changes to the data base are simple and quick to perform. Consequently,
modifications to portions of a plan can be evaluated rapidly and without
major revisions to the entire data base.
The AQUIP System represents a land use planning tool that can
represent all source geometries in the analysis of air quality. In
particular the air quality projection model can treat directly point, line
and area sources which can be located at ground level or at any desired ele-
vation. Thus the planner has complete flexibility in the use of the model
to represent comprehensive plans including both transportation activities
(line sources) and land use activities (point and area sources). The
AQUIP System permits the direct input of land use data which can be repre-
sented by points, lines or area figures. The lines must be straight-line
segments, but can consist of an arbitrary number of links, for example, to
represent roadway systems; the area figures must be polygons, that is,
the boundaries of areas must be represented by straight-line segments.
The AQUIP System is the first planning tool to have the capability to
automatically allocate emissions from these "figure-based" input to "grid-
based" data sets. Through this feature of the AQUIP System, emissions can
allocated to any arbitrary rectangular grid system specified by the user.
Furthermore, any data, e.g., population, specified in terms of the input
source geometries can be allocated to the specified grid system.
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The ERT/MARTIK air quality projection model incorporates many features
that represent improvements over similar gaussian diffusion models such
as the AQDM. These features and modifications contribute to improved
accuracies in computing concentrations at short distances from sources
and to the significant reduction of running times of programs on digital
computers. Additionally, the model has been adapted to fit computers with
core capacities as small as 55,000 bytes.
This study represents the first effort to apply quantitative multi-
pollutant ranking indices for the evaluation and ranking of land use plans
in terms of air quality criteria. It also represents the first effort to
develop quantitative multipollutant ranking indices that explicitly take
into account the effects of air pollution on specific receptors, including
land use categories within the plan.
Finally, the AQUIP System has the feature of providing a computer
routine capable of calculating numerous desired air quality impact
parameters as specified by the planner. Such computations may involve correla-
tions between land use data and air quality data, or comparisons with speci-
fied criteria such as ambient air quality standards.
8.2 General Applicability of the Results
The AQUIP System of procedures and software has been designed to be
applied to the analysis of regional scale air quality associated with land
use and transportation planning alternatives. Because a major objective of
the study was to apply these procedures to the evaluation of ranking of
the four Hackensack Meadowlands land use plans, the programmed computation
routines and the data sets are in large part based on the characteristics
of these plans and the planning assumptions of the Hackensack Meadowlands
88
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Commission. In order to be applied to new planning developments, some new
computation routines would have to be written to reflect the appropriate
planning assumptions.
In programming the AQUIP System software, however, a deliberate attempt
was made to maintain as much generality in the programs as possible. This
was done explicitly by structuring the computation routines in a form that
makes the main programs completely general, and by utilizing specialized sub-
routes as necessary to perform calculations that are application specific.
Consequently, the overall procedures and computer programs of the AQUIP
System are completely general in structure.
The results of the Hackensack Meadowlands air pollution analysis
studies were used as a basis for the development of planning guidelines.
For the greatest part these guidelines are quite general and can be applied
to other regional scale planning situations with two basic provisions. 'The
primary exception is that the explicit quantitative results are less gener-
ally applicable. Specifically, these quantitative results may be used for
broad planning estimation purposes in other planning situations, but cannot
be considered sufficiently accurate to be used as a basis for plan decision -
making. The second limitation on the generality of the guidelines is that
they represent the characteristic meteorological and topographical conditions
associated with the Meadowlands. For example, since the Meadowlands has
a relatively flat and homogeneous terrain, the results cannot be applied in
planning regions having highly variable or unusual topographical features.
Finally, the AQUIP System can be applied to the analysis of air quality
within urban regions for current situations as well as for future time
frames. This was demonstrated in the Meadowlands study by constructing
the current northern New Jersey emissions inventory for validating and
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calibrating the model. Thus the AQUIP System represents a tool that can
be used not only by planners during the implementation phases of the planning
process to evaluate proposed new developments within the region, but also
by air pollution control agencies to address problems such as the evaluation
of control strategies necessary to achieve ambient air quality standards
involving, for example, changes in traffic levels, transportation systems,
land use, fuel use, and emission control regulations.
8.3 Recommendat ions
The work undertaken and accomplished in this research effort represents
an important initial step to quantify the relationships between plan design
factors and air pollution. As a consequence of the study there have been
a number of questions raised but which remain unanswered due either to con-
straints resulting from the scope of the research assignment or due to the
limitations of time and available resources. Therefore, it is appropriate
to review briefly the areas in which it is felt that additional research and
development efforts would be highly beneficial to advancing the state-of-the-
art in considering air pollution in the planning process.
The recommendations fall into three categories. First are the areas
of recommended additional studies using the AQUIP System as already developed.
Second, are areas of recommended research efforts and further developments
of the AQUIP System for the analysis of regional scale air quality. Third
are the areas of recommended research to develop methodologies, analytical
tools and planning guidelines: (1) for the consideration of more complex
issues in the planning process, such as determining microscale impacts
and determining relationships between air pollution and other environmental
matters; and (2) for the development of a more generalized analytical frame-
work for plan evaluation, such as cost-benefit studies.
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8.3.1 Further Studies Directly Associated with the Planning
Process of che Hackensack Meadowlands Development Commission
In conjunction with the planning process of the HMDC, it is recom-
mended that the AQUIP System be used to perform further studies of the
existing plans through the analysis of the sensitivity of air quality to
variations in plan design factors, especially the mix and relative location
of land use categories.
It is further recommended that the AQUIP System, as developed, be
applied on a routine basis within the planning process of the HMDC to
analyze major modifications to existing plans or to develop entirely new
planning concepts as the need arises.
Finally, it is recommended that the AQUIP System, as developed, be
used to update and to refine air quality projections as time progresses
and as land developments become more explicitly defined. For example, in
the future better emissions data will become available to the Meadowlands
planners as specific industries are identified. Furthermore, changes in
fuel use, control technology, and emission regulations will cause substantial
changes in emissions estimates, not only for planned developments, but for
existing sources as well.
8.3.2 Further Developments of the AQUIP System for Regional Scale
Air Quality Analysis
On the basis of the insight and experience gained as a result of the
current study, it is recognized that the AQUIP System can be substantially
improved as a planning tool for the analysis of regional scale air quality
through additional research efforts. Some of the more significant of these
efforts are listed in the following paragraphs:
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1. It is recommended that the AQUIP System be adapted to and docu-
mented for application to the general planning situation. This
would involve an extensive documentation to explain the decision-
making processes that go into the development of the explicit
computational routines required to automate the planning assump-
tions and plan characteristics specific to a particular planning
situation.
2. It is recommended that further work be done to refine the
emissions data, especially in the area of activity indices and
projecting indices. It is noted that in general emissions data
are available for specific industries, but that the categori-
zation of land use types and activities even in such detail as
four or six digit SIC codes is often insufficient to accurately
differentiate industries by emissions characteristics.
3. It is recommended that further efforts be devoted to the
development of default parameters to better enable the planner
to make use of the AQUIP System in situations where; he is
unable to obtain or specify the required input data.
4. It is recommended that further efforts be devoted to improving
methods for projecting background air quality. As demonstrated
by the Meadowlands study, background air quality is a particu-
larly important element in the analysis of regional air quality
for land use planning and is a particularly large effort in
urban regions.
5. It is recommended that further studies be conducted concerning
the validation and calibration of the air quality projection
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model. In particular there is a specific need to better
understand the near field effects of large sources, especially
in the vicinity of air quality monitoring sites whose measure-
ments are used to estimate regional air quality levels. There
is also a need to have air quality monitoring sites placed in
areas representative of regional background levels. Finally,
there is a need to measure pollutant concentrations over long
base paths in order to provide data for the calibration of
models more directly representative of regional average concen-
trations .
6. It is recommended that further studies be conducted concerning
meteorological effects. In particular data and results of
research conducted by EPA and other agencies should be incor-
porated into the model validation. In addition, the validation
studies should include an analysis of the systematic correla-
tions that can occur between meteorological conditions and
emission sources. For example, nighttime stable conditions
should not be applied to emissions which occur predominantly
during daytime hours, e.g., pollutants from motor vehicles and
industrial processes. Similarly, high correlations between northerly
wind directions and large space heating emissions can be expected
during the winter months. Such effects are not accounted for in
the current techniques for computing annual average concentra-
tions .
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7. It is recommended that further studies be conducted to examine
the effects of topographical and local meteorological factors on
regional air quality. Because of the flat terrain of the Meadow-
lands, the effects of variations in topographical features could
not be investigated. Studies should be conducted to examine local
influences such as topography and heat island and sea breeze
effects on pollutant concentration patterns, and to coordinate
the meteorology associated with urban developments with meso-
scale meteorological models.
8. It is recommended that to the greatest extent possible these
research studies be carried out using the existing Hackensack
Meadowlands data base. In conducting further studies a good
data base is essential. Considerable efforts have been devoted
to the development of this particular data base, not only to
incorporate the most recent and accurage emissions inventory
data, but also to code the data in a standardized format for
use in the AQUIP System.
8.3.3 Further Developments of the AQUIP System for Other Applications
As discussed above, the AQUIP System represents a tool useful to
planners and air pollution control agencies alike for examining air quality
impacts resulting from land use developments and state implementation plan
control strategies likely to occur in the near future (i.e., from one to
five years). In order to facilitate the use of the AQUIP System for such
applications:
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1. It is recommended that a software interface be developed between
the AQUIP System and the computerized data base of an air pollu-
tion control agency to permit direct access to current emissions
data. This would permit rapid updates of the AQUIP emissions
data base and permit rapid recalibration of the models. As a
consequence the AQUIP System could be used either by planners
or air pollution control agencies to continuously update air
quality projections on a regional scale to reflect both actual
and potential changes in the emissions of current sources.
2. It is recommended that further efforts be devoted to the refine-
ment of rapid estimation techniques for the evaluation and
ranking of land use planes. In particular, it is recommended
that studies be conducted to develop sensitivity data relating
emissions to land use categories which would be representative
of a wide range of planning situations and thus be more generally
applicable.
One of the major findings of the ERT survey of land use and transpor-
tation planning agencies was that planners need to have information concern-
ing very localized effects of elements of a plan for use during plan design.
Because the current AQUIP System methodologies are oriented toward the analysis
of regional scale effects, the results of such an analysis cannot be used
directly to infer localized or microscale air quality impacts. The AQUIP
System, however, can be modified to permit the analysis of such localized
effects.
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3. Therefore it is recommended that further research efforts be
devoted to the development of methodologies for the analysis
of land use plans at the microscale level of detail through
adaptation of the AQUIP System.
4. It is recommended that detailed sensitivity studies be con-
ducted to develop planning guidelines relating the impact
of small-scale elements of the plan on localized air quality
levels. These guidelines should include, for example, the effects of
open space, cluster developments, and intensity of land use
activities on localized air quality, as well as estimates
of the near-field region of influence of specific types of
land uses. They also should describe relationships between
localized air quality and factors such as population density,
the location of employment centers, and transportation facili-
ties.
5. It is recommended also that microscale sensitivity studies be
conducted to develop planning guidelines relating the impact
of the design and arrangement of structures on microscale
air quality. Such detailed studies should include the analysis
of buildings in terms of characteristics that influence micro-
scale meteorological conditions (such as height, shape, and
lot coverage), and in terms of characteristics which influence
emissions (such as fuel use, control devices, heating systems
and incineration). Likewise, roadway facilities should be
examined to assess localized impacts on air quality in terms
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of design characteristics such as median width, setback from
right of way, and cross-section configuration.
Finally, it is recognized that air pollution is only one of the many
considerations of importance to the planner. As a result it is recommended
that further research and development efforts be devoted to examining air
quality in relation to other environmental and planning issues.
6. It is recommended that research efforts be devoted to the
development of techniques for the study of explicit relation-
ships and tradeoffs that may occur between air pollution and
other environmental concerns, such as water quality and solid
waste management.
7. It is recommended that efforts be devoted to the development of
techniques to better assess the impacts of direct concern to
planners and citizens alike, such as health effects, damage
costs and economic impact.
8. Finally, it is recommended that research efforts be devoted
to the development of a more broadly based plan evaluation
and ranking methodology. This might include, for example,
the consideration not only of direct air pollution impacts,
but also indirect impacts resulting from the relationship
between air pollution and other environmental concerns or
planning issues. In particular the framework for such a
plan evaluation scheme might be based on criteria related
to the costs and benefits resulting from alternative alloca-
tions of regional resources.
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REFERENCES
1. Chapter 404, Hackensack Meadowlands Reclamation and Development Act,
State of New Jersey, 1969.
2. Goldman, C. and C. Mattson, Hackensack Meadowlands Comprehensive Land
Use Plan, Hackensack Meadowlands Development Commission, State of
New Jersey, October, 1970.
3. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Compilation of Air Pollutant
Emission Factors, Environmental Protection Agency, Research
Triangle Park, North Carolina, February, 1972. Office of Air
Programs, Publication No. AP-42.
4. Martin, D.O. and T.A. Tikvart, A General Atmospheric Diffusion Model
for Estimating the Effects of One or More Sources on Air Quality,
presented at the 61st Annual Meeting of the APCA, St. Paul, Minn.,
1968.
5. NAPCA, Air Quality Display Model, National Air Pollution Control
Administration, Washington, D.C., 1969.
6. McElroy, T.L., and F. Pooler, St. Louis Dispersion Study, Vol. II -
Analysis, NAPCA Publication No. AP-53., 1968.
7. Holzworth, G.C., Mixing Heights, Wind Speeds, and Potential for Urban
Air Pollution Throughout the Contiguous United States, Office of
Air Programs Publication No. AP-101, Environmental Protection
Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, January 1972.
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GLOSSARY
Activity, Activity Level - basic land use and transportation planning
units of intensity of use - vehicles per day on a highway, acres
of residential land use, square feet of industrial plant space.
Activity Index - a numerical conversion factor to transform the level of
activity specified for a land use category into demand for fuel for
heating purposes.
Air Quality Contour - a contour line in a plane (usually the horizontal
or vertical) representing points of equal concentrations for a specified
air pollutant.
Air Quality Criteria - factors used in this study that represent a basis
for decision-making, for example ambient air quality standards.
Air Quality Prediction - the calculation of current or future air pollutant
concentrations at specified receptor points resulting from the action
of meteorological conditions on source emissions.
Albedo - the fraction of solar radiation reflected from the ground surface.
Ambient Air - that portion of the atmosphere, external to buildings, to
which the general public has access.
Ambient Air Quality - concentration levels in ambient air for a specified
pollutant and a specified averaging time period within a given geographic
region.
Ambient Air Quality Standard - a level of air quality established by federal
or state agencies which is to be achieved and maintained; primary
standards are those judged necessary, with an adequate margin of
safety, to protect the public health; secondary standards are those
judged necessary to protect the public welfare from any known or
anticipated adverse effects of a pollutant.
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AQUIP - an acronym for Air Quality for Urban and ^Industrial Planning,
a computer-based tool for incorporating air pollution considerations
into the land use and transportation planning process.
Atmospheric Boundary Layer - the lower region of the atmosphere (to
altitudes of 1 to 2 km) where meteorological conditions are strongly
influenced by the ground surface features.
Atmospheric Dispersion Model - a mathematical procedure for calculating
air pollution concentrations that result from a specified array of
emission sources and a specified set of meteorological conditions.
Average Receptor Exposure - a measure of the average impact of air quality
levels on specific receptors; the measure is based on the integrated
receptor exposure divided by the total number of receptors in the
study region.
Background Air Quality - levels of pollutant concentrations within a study
region which are the result of emissions from all other sources not
incorporated in the model for the study region.
Background Emissions - the emissions inventory applicable to the background
region; that is, all emission sources not explicitly included in the
inventory for the study region.
Climatology - the study of long term weather as represented by statistical
records of parameters such as winds, temperature, cloud cover, rainfall,
and humidity which determine the characteristic climate of a region;
climatology is distinguished from meteorology in that it is primarily
concerned with average, not actual, weather conditions.
Concentrations - a measure of the average density of pollutants usually
specified in terms of pollutant weight per unit (typically in units
of micrograms per cubic meter), or in terms of relative volume of pollutant
per unit volume of air (typically in units of parts per million).
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Default Parameters - values associated with a parameter for a category of
activities (such as heavy manufacturing) assigned to the activity para-
meter for a subcategory of activities ,(such as electrical machinery
production) when the actual value for the subcategory is not known.
Degree Days - the number of degrees the average temperature is below 65°
each day; used to determine demand for fuel for heating purposes.
Effective Stack Height - the height of the plume center-line when it be-
comes horizontal.
Emission Factor - a numerical conversion factor applied to fuel use and
process rates to determine emissions and emission rates.
Emissions - effluents into the atmosphere, usually specified in terms of
weight per unit time for a given pollutant from a given source.
Emissions Inventory - a data set describing the location and source strength
of air pollution emissions within a geographical region.
Emissions Projection - the quantitative estimate of emissions for a specified
source and a specified future time.
Equivalent Ambient Air Quality Standards - air quality levels adopted in
this study to permit analysis of all air pollutants in terms of annual
averages; in cases where state and federal annual standards do not exist,
the adopted levels are based on the extrapolation of short period stan-
dards.
Fuel Related Sources, Fuel Emissions - fuel related sources use fuel to heat
area, or to raise a product to a certain temperature during an industrial
process, or for cooking in the house; they produce fuel emissions.
(See also Non-Fuel Related Sources.)
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Fuel Use Propensity, Fuel Demand - the total heat requirement (space
heating plus process heating) determines the fuel demand; the propensity
to use a particular fuel or fuels determines the actual amounts of various
fuels used to satisfy the heat requirement.
Heating Requirements - the demand for fuel is specified in terms of the
heating requirements:
space heating - the fuel used to heat area, such as the floor space
of a school in the winter, is that required for space heating; the
heat content or value of that fuel defines the space heating re-
quirement (BTUs, British Thermal Units of heating content).
non-space heating, process heating - the fuel used to raise a pro-
duct to a certain temperature during an industrial process or for
cooking (with gas) in the home is that required for process heating
or non-space heating. It is generally not related to outside tempera-
ture whereas space heating requirements are.
percent space heating, percent process heating - the relative pro-
portion of a fuel or its heat content that is used for space heating
or process heating defines,respectively, the percent space heating
or percent process heating.
Impact Measure (or Parameter) - a quantitative representation of the degree
of impact on air quality or specific receptors resulting from concentrations
of specified pollutants.
Influence Region - the influence region for a study area is the geographical
region containing the emission sources responsible for at least 90% of
the ground level concentrations (averaged throughout the study area) of
all pollutants considered.
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Integrated Receptor Exposure - a measure of the total impact of air quality
levels on specific receptors; the measure is based on the summation
within the study region of the numbei of receptors times the concentration
levels to which they are exposed.
Inventories - the aggregation of all fuel and process emissions sources is
called the emissions inventory; the components for use with the model:
current inventory - all sources for 1969
background inventory - all sources for 1990 not directly related
to the meadowlands plans.
plan inventories - all sources for 1990 related to the Meadowlands
plans; this excludes any source outside the Meadowlands boundary
and also excludes existing major single sources and the highway
network.
Isopleth - the locus of points of equal value in a. multidimensional space.
Land Use Intensity - the level of activity associated with a given land use
category, for example the population density of residential areas.
Land Use Mix - the percent of total study region area allocated to specific
land use categories.
Meteorology - the study of atmospheric motions and phenomena.
Microscale Air Quality - the representation of air quality in a geographical
scale characterized by distances between source and receptor ranging
from a few meters to a few tens of meters.
Mixing Depth - the vertical distance from the ground to the base of a stable
atmospheric layer (also called inversion height).
Model Calibration - the process of correlating model projections with observed
(measurements) data, usually to determine calibration factors relating
predicted to observed values for each pollutant.
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Model Validation - the detailed investigation of model results by comparison
with measured values to identify systematic discrepencies that may be
conected by alterations of model parameters or model mechanics.
Non-Fuel Related Sources, Process Emissions, Separate Process Emissions -
non-fuel related sources do not burn fuel primarily for heating purposes
or do not burn fuel at all; these include transportation sources, in-
cineration, and certain industrial processes; they produce process or
separate process emissions. (See also Fuel Related Sources.)
Ranking Index - a quantitative representation of the net impact on air
quality or specific receptors resulting from all pollutants being con-
sidered.
Receptor - a physical object which is exposed to air pollution concentrations;
objects may be animate or inanimate, and may be arbitrarily defined in
terms of size, numbers, and degree of specificity of the object.
Receptor Point - a geographical point at which air pollution concentrations
are measured or predicted.
Regional Air Quality - the representation of air quality in a geographical
scale characterized by large areas, for example, on the order of 50
square kilometers or greater.
Schedule - number of hours per year a fuel burning activity will consume fuel;
used to determine heating requirements.
Source - any stationary or mobile activity which produces air pollutant
emissions.
Source Geometry - all sources for modeling purposes are considered to exist
as a point, line, or area, defined as follows:
point source - a single major emitter located at a point.
line source - a major highway link, denoted by its end points.
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area source - a rectangular area referenced to a grid system; in-
cludes not only area-wide sources, such as residential emitters,
but single emitters and highway links deemed too small to be con-
sidered individual point or line sources by the model.
Stability Category - a classification of atmospheric stability conditions
based on surface wind speed, cloud cover and ceiling, supplemented by
solar elevation data (latitude, time of day, and time of year).
Stability Wind Rose - a tabulation of the joint frequency of occurrences of
wind speed and wind direction by atmospheric stability class at a
specific location.
Total Air Quality - the air quality at a receptor point resulting from back-
ground emission sources and from emission sources specifically within
the study region.
Trapping Distance - the distance downwind of a source at which vertical
mixing of a plume begins to be significantly inhibited by the base
of the stability layer, and gaussian vertical distribution can no
longer be assumed.
Wind Sector - a 22-1/2 degree wind direction range whose center-line is one
of the sixteen points of the compass.
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PRINCIPAL STUDY PARTICIPANTS
Environmental Research & Technology, Inc.
Dr. Byron H. Willis, Study Director - Plan Evaluation
John C. Goodrich - Emissions Projection
Dr. James R. Mahoney - Air Pollution Meteorology
Dr. Bruce A. Egan - Air Pollution Modeling
Dr. Edward C. Reifenstein, III - System Software Design and Development
Michael J. Keefe - Software Design and Programming
David A. Berghofer - Computer Programming
Burns § Roe, Inc. (subcontractor to ERT)
William A. Foy - Combustion and Process Emission Technology
William E. Wechter - Combustion and Process Emission Technology
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing
1 REPORT NO.
EPA-450/3-74-056-3
3 RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION-NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
THE HACKENSACK MEADOWLANDS AIR POLLUTION STUDY
Summary Report
5 REPORT DATE
July 1973
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
Byron H. Willis
ERT Project P-244-SR
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
Environmental Research and Technology, Inc.
429 Marrett Road
Lexington, Massachusetts 02173
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
EHSD 71-39
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
13. TYPE OF RE;PORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
Final
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
Prepared in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection,
Office of the Commissioner, Labor and Industry Building, Trenton, N.J. 08625
16. ABSTRACT
The Hackensack Meadowlands Air Pollution Study consists of a summary report and
five task reports. The summary report discusses the procedures developed for
considering air pollution in the planning process and the use of these procedures
to evaluate four alternative land use plans for the New Jersey Hackensack Meadowlands
for 1990. The task reports describe (1) the emission projection methodology and its
application to the Hackensack Meadowlands; (2) the model for predicting air quality
levels and its validation and calibration: (3) the evaluation and ranking of the
land use plans; (4) the planning guidelines derived from the analysis of the plans;
and, (5) the software system.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS C. COSATI Field/Group
Land Use
Planning and Zoning
Local Governments
County Governments
State Governments
Regional Governments
Air Pollution flnntrnl
IS. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Unlimited
19 SECURITY CLASS (This Report)
Unclassified
21. NO. OF PAGES
117
20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)
Unclassified
22 PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
110
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