ENAMAP-1 LONG-TERM S02 AND SULFATE POLLUTION MODEL
Further Application to Eastern North America
C.M. Bhumralkar, R.L. Mancuso, D.E. Wolf,
K.C. Nitz, and W.B. Johnson
Atmospheric Science Center
SRI International
Menlo Park, California 94025
Contract 68-02-2959
Project Officer
Terry L. Clark
Meteorology and Assessment Division
Environmental Sciences Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES RESEARCH LABORATORY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, NORTH CAROLINA 27711
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DISCLAIMER
This report has been reviewed by the Office of Research and
Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and
approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the con-
tents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade
names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recom-
mendation for use.
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ABSTRACT
This report describes the results of Phase II of a study to apply and test the Eastern Worth
/American Model of -Air Pollution (ENAMAP-1), a regional trajectory-type model that is an
adapted version of the European Model of Air Pollution (EURMAP-1) developed by SRI Interna-
tional (SRI) for the Federal Republic of Germany. The ENAMAP-1 model calculations are based
on all available wind and precipitation data and on specialized emission data prepared for the
Sulfate Regional Experiment (SURE) program.
In Phase I of the study, ENAMAP-1 was extensively applied over the eastern United States
and southeastern Canada using emission and meteorological data for 1977 to investigate and
evaluate the interregional transport and deposition of sulfur. In Phase II of the study, the
ENAMAP-1 model has been further tested to determine the variability of model's seasonal cal-
culations caused by year-to-year changes in wind and precipitation patterns. Sulfur emission
data for the year 1977 were used with meteorological data of four recent years (1975-1978)
and model calculations were made of the monthly and annual sulfur concentrations, deposi-
tions, and regional exchanges. The calculated results appear to be in reasonably good agree-
ment with the available air quality measurements. The effects of yearly variations in the trans-
port winds were most noticeable in the monthly SO; concentration patterns and in the SOJ
wet-deposition fields; the latter also showed strong sensitivity to yearly variations in
precipitation.
This report was submitted in fulfillment of Contract No. 68-02-2959 by SRI International
under the sponsorship of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This report was the result
of research covering a period from 1 February 1980 to 31 August 1980.
in
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CONTENTS
Abstract [[[ iii
Figures [[[ vi
Tables [[[ viii
Acknowledgment [[[ ix
1. Introduction [[[ 1
2. Review of the ENAMAP-1 Model [[[ 2
3. Review of the Data Bases [[[ 6
Meteorological Data [[[ 6
Emission Data [[[ 6
Air Quality Data [[[ 7
4. Results for January (1 975-1 978) [[[ 8
SOo Concentrations [[[ 8
Concentrations [[[ 14
Wet Depositions [[[ 19
Interregional Exchanges [[[ 24
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FIGURES
Number Page
1 Eastern North American domain and EPA regions
used in this study [[[ 3
2 SO2 concentrations (^g/m) for January 1975 [[[ 9
3 SO2 concentrations (^g/m3) for January 1 976 [[[ 1 0
4 862 concentrations (/ug/m3) for January 1977 [[[ 1 1
5 SO2 concentrations (^ig/m3) for January 1978 [[[ 12
6 SO^ concentrations (^g/m3) for January 1975 [[[ 15
7 SO^ concentrations (/ug/m3) for January 1976 [[[ 16
8 804° concentrations (/ng/m3) for January 1977 [[[ 17
9 SO^ concentrations (/*g/m3) for January 1977 [[[ 18
10 SO^ wet depositions for January 1975 [[[ 20
1 1 SO^ wet depositions for January 1976 [[[ 21
12 SO^ wet depositions for January 1977 [[[ 22
1 3 SO^ wet depositions for January 1 978 [[[ 23
1 4 SC>2 concentrations (/ng/rn3) for July 1 975 [[[ 31
15 SC>2 concentrations (/u.g/m3) for July 1976 [[[ 32
16 SC>2 concentrations (/ng/m3) for August 1977 [[[ 33
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Number Page
27 SC>2 concentrations (/ug/m3) for April 1976 53
28 SC>2 concentrations (fj.g/m3) for April 1977 54
29 SO2 concentrations (/*g/m3) for April 1978 55
30 SO2 concentrations (/*g/m3) for October 1975 56
31 SO2 concentrations (Mg/m3) for October 1976 57
32 SO2 concentrations 0*g/m3) for October 1977 58
33 SO2 concentrations (^g/m3) for October 1978 59
34 SO^ concentrations (jig/m3) for April 1975 61
35 SO^ concentrations (pig/m3) for April 1976 62
36 SO^ concentrations (/u.g/m3) for April 1977 63
37 SOj concentrations Oxg/m3) for April 1978 64
38 SO^ concentrations (/ng/m3) for October 1975 65
39 SO^ concentrations (^g/m3) for October 1976 66
40 SO^ concentrations (/zg/m3) for October 1977 67
41 SO^ concentrations (/ug/m3) for October 1978 68
42 SO^ wet depositions for April 1975 69
43 SO^ wet depositions for April 1976 70
44 SOj wet depositions for April 1977 71
45 SO^ wet depositions for April 1978 72
46 SO^ wet depositions for October 1975 73
47 304° wet depositions for October 1976 74
48 SO^ wet depositions for October 1977 75
49 SO^ wet depositions for October 1978 76
50 Annual results for 1975 86
51 Annual results for 1976 87
52 Annual results for 1977 88
53 Annual results for 1978 89
VII
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TABLES
Number Page
1 Element Values Used in the Phase I and II
ENAMAP-1 Applications 4
2 Calculated Interregional Exchanges of Sulfur
for January 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978 26
3 Calculated Interregional Exchanges of Sulfur
for July 1975, 1976, 1978, and for August 1977 47
4 Calculated Interregional Exchanges of Sulfur
for April 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978 77
5 Calculated Interregional Exchanges of Sulfur
for October 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978 81
6 Calculated Annual Interregional Exchanges of Sulfur
1975, 1976, 1977, 1978 90
VIII
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ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors wish to express their appreciation to the Federal Environmental Agency
(Umweltbundesamt) of the Federal Republic of Germany for giving permission to adapt and
apply their long-term EURMAP-1 model to eastern North America. Joyce Kealoha of SRI Inter-
national was instrumental in the preparation of illustrations.
IX
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SECTION 1
INTRODUCTION
Under contract to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), SRI International (SRI)
developed and evaluated an Eastern North /American Model of /Air Pollution (ENAMAP)
(Bhumralkar et al., 1980).* The ENAMAP-1f model, which is a modified version of the SRI-
developed European Model of Air Pollution (EURMAP)* was specifically designed to study
long-term transboundary air pollution processes over eastern North America. The model can be
used to calculate monthly, seasonal, and annual values of sulfur concentrations and deposi-
tions and to quantify interregional exchanges of airborne sulfur between various selected
Canadian and EPA regions. ENAMAP-1 has been shown to be highly suitable for application to
assess the long-term transboundary sulfur pollution problem in eastern North America, because
of its realistic treatment of precipitation scavenging and wet deposition and its consideration of
both SO2 and SO4 emissions over a very large region.
This report describes the results of a study funded by EPA with the objectives of applying
the ENAMAP-1 model to further test the model and to study the variability of the model's sea-
sonal calculations of sulfur concentrations and depositions due to year-to-year changes in the
wind and precipitation patterns. Section 2 of this report reviews the basic structure of the
ENAMAP-1 model with respect to model grid boundaries and other variables. Section 3
presents a review of the data base, including the air-quality, emission, and meteorological data
used with ENAMAP-1. Sections 4 through 7 describe the monthly and annual results obtained
from ENAMAP-1 using weather data for the four years 1975, 1976, 1977, and 1978 and sulfur
emission data for 1977. The results for the winter (January) months are shown in Section 4
and the results for the summer (July or August) months are shown in Section 5. The results for
the transitional months (i.e., April and October) are presented in Section 6; the annual results
are shown in Section 7. The results presented in these sections (4 to 7) are shown in graphic
form for SO2 and SO4" concentrations and SO4" wet depositions, and tabular form for the
interregional exchanges of sulfur (S).§ Section 8 presents the summary and conclusions of the
study.
'References are listed at the end of this report
fSRI is currently developing an improved version of ENAMAP-1 which will be designated ENAMAP-2. This will include,
among other things, effects of complex terrain and emissions released at higher elevations.
'EURMAP-1 was developed by SRI under the sponsorship of the Environmental Agency (Umweltbundesamt) of the
Federal Republic of Germany (FRG). For a detailed description of this model, see Johnson et al. (1978).
^Additional graphical results from the ENAMAP-1 calculations in this study are given in the appendices.
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SECTION 2
REVIEW OF THE ENAMAP-1 MODEL
ENAMAP-1 is a practical air pollution model designed to have minimum computational
requirements for use in making long-term calculations economically, while at the same time
offering acceptable realism in simulating the most important processes involved in the
transboundary air-pollution problem. The ENAMAP-1 model can be used to calculate monthly,
seasonal, and annual SO2 and SO J air concentrations; SO2 and 804 dry and wet deposition
patterns; and interregional exchanges resulting from the SO2 and SO J emissions over eastern
North America. The model uses long sequences of historical meteorological data as input,
retaining all the original temporal and spatial detail inherent in the data.*
In the ENAMAP-1 model, discrete puffs of SO2 and SO;" are assumed to be emitted at
equal time increments from cells of an emission grid. This type of treatment provides a realistic
representation of area sources. For a point source, it assumes that the pollutant expands ini-
tially to fill uniformly the volume of the cell from the point within the cell where the source is
actually located. [In this application, seasonal emission data were conveniently available on an
80- by 80-km Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) grid.] For each of the emission cells, the
average annual or seasonal emissions are divided into discrete emission puffs released at
12-hour intervals and tracked at 3-hour time steps, until either they move outside the region of
analysis or their concentrations drop to an insignificant level (10 tons of SO2 and 1 ton of
SO^). The individual puffs are transported according to a transport wind field that is derived
objectively from the available upper-air wind observations.
Since diffusion on the regional scale is not as significant as the transport and removal
processes, very simple treatments of vertical and horizontal diffusion have been used. Upon
release, each puff is assumed to undergo instantaneous vertical diffusion to give uniform con-
centration in the layer between the surface and the top of the mixing height. Horizontal
diffusion is treated by allowing the area of the puff to increase linearly with time on the basis of
Fickian diffusion, assuming a horizontal eddy diffusivity of 36 km2h~1. During the transport of
the puff, the model assumes that the pollutant concentration within a puff is always uniform.
The amount of pollutant mass that is removed from a puff during each 3-hour time step is
dependent on the specified dry and wet deposition rates that are used; these amounts are
deposited within the appropriate 70- by 70-km cells of the receptor grid. At each time step, a
fraction of the SO2 is transformed to SO4 at the specified transformation rate. Figure 1 shows
the eastern sector of the North American continent over which the ENAMAP-1 model has been
applied. This sector covers the region between 30°N and 50"N latitudes and 105"W and 65°W
longitudes. Figure 1 (a) shows the EPA regions and subregions used in this study; southern
'A more detailed description of the long-term ENAMAP-1 model and its application to studies of interregional sulfur tran-
sport and deposition is given in Bhumralkar et al. (1980).
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Figure 1. Eastern North American domain and EPA regions used in this study
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portions of Quebec and Ontario provinces of Canada are also included. Figure 1 (b) shows the
model receptor grid. Each receptor-cell measures 70 by 70 km. The pollutant depositions are
accumulated and concentrations are averaged in these receptor cells. The values for the basic
model elements that have been used are listed in Table 1. These values are based on reviews
of recent field, laboratory, and theoretical studies and on evaluation studies (Mancuso et al.,
1978).
TABLE 1. ELEMENT VALUES USED
IN THE ENAMAP-1 APPLICATION TO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
Element
Values
Emission rate
Transport windspeed (V) (ms~1)
and direction (9)
Mixing height (km)
h = h0 + f A*
S02 deposition rates (hr~1)
Dry
Wet
304 deposition rates (hr1)
Dry
Wet
SO2/S04 transformation rate (hr1)
Data provided by season
Derived by integrating winds over
boundary layer
no = 1.3
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0.037
0.007
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0.01
A = +1 in winter, -1 in summer, and 0 in spring and fall.
^R is the precipitation rate in mm/hr"1.
In this study, the basic model was run for the months of January, April, July, and October
of the years 1975, 1976, and 1978 and January, April, August, and October of 1977 using the
meteorological data for each year. The emission data of 1977 were assumed to apply for all
four years, mainly because no data base of similar quality and resolution was available for the
years 1975 and 1976. The particular months were selected in order to examine the seasonal
variations in the results. [In 1977, August rather than July was chosen as representative of the
summer because of the availability of a greater amount of Sulfate Regional Experiment (SURE)
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air quality data.] For each of the four months of each of the years, fields of SO2 and SOJ con-
centrations, dry depositions, and wet depositions resulting from the S02 emissions were calcu-
lated, stored, and displayed graphically. Interregional exchange tables were also generated.
Annualized depositions for each of the years were estimated by assuming that the results
for each of the four months were representative of seasonal values, totalling the four monthly
deposition values, and multiplying by three. Similarly, estimates of annual average concentra-
tions were obtained by averaging values for the four months.
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SECTION 3
REVIEW OF THE DATA BASES
The ENAMAP-1 model uses three types of data—meteorological (winds and precipitation),
emission (SO2 and SOJ"), and air quality (SO2 and SO4 concentration measurements). The
main purpose of this study has been to determine the effects of weather on the ENAMAP-1 cal-
culations. Therefore, actual meteorological data for the years 1975 through 1978 have been
used, with the emission data for the year 1977, permitting a direct determinination of the
effects of weather on the results. However, the calculated results are thus strictly correct only
for the year 1977, and the comparisons with the air quality data are most valid for that year. A
detailed description of the data bases is given by Bhumralkar et at. (1980); a brief review is
given below.
Meteorological Data
Historical meteorological data for this study (upper-air wind data for the United States and
precipitation data for the United States and Canada) were obtained from the National Climatic
Center (NCC) in Asheville, North Carolina. The basic analyses were made with a computer pro-
gram that generated both transport winds and precipitation amounts at 3-hourly intervals for
the 70- by 70-km weather grid of ENAMAP-1. The precipitation data include detailed data from
about 2,000 U.S. stations, and the analyzed values are expressed as rainfall rates in mm/hr, and
are used directly in the wet deposition calculations.
Emission Data
Emission data have been collected for a number of years and maintained by the National
Emissions Data Systems (NEDS) of the EPA. The NEDS data cover the entire U.S. portion of the
ENAMAP-1 study area and provide relatively high spatial resolutions. Specialized emission
data have also been prepared for the SURE program. These data are complete for sources
existing in July 1977 and effectively represent emissions for the 1977 time period. This SURE
emission data base is essentially a refinement of the NEDS data base; that is, the NEDS data
are updated and screened for errors and inconsistencies, especially with respect to electric
power plants.
The 1977 seasonal emission data base that was used in this study* was based wherever
possible on the specialized emission data of the SURE program. The SURE data, which are
arranged on an 80- by 80-km UTM grid, cover almost the entire area considered in this study
'Graphical displays of these emissions were shown in Bhumralkar et at. (1980).
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except for Texas and the Great Plains states. For this westernmost portion of the ENAMAP-1
domain, gridded emission data were supplied by NEDS.
Air Quality Data
Air quality data appropriate for validation of ENAMAP-1 were obtained from two different
data bases: the SURE air quality data and the Storage and Retrieval of Aerometric Data
(SAROAD). The SURE data are not as extensive spatially as the SAROAD data, but they are
relatively free of urban bias (Perhac, 1978). The SURE data were somewhat sparse geographi-
cally and were available for only the last two years of our study. Thus, they were augmented by
SAROAD data that were screened to reject sites most likely to have a local-source influence or
values that were obviously in error. However, the selected sites included population-oriented
surveillances and special study sites that could contain data reflective of local conditions.
Also, the SAROAD SO^ measurements were very sparse temporally, and a monthly average
would involve at most two days of measurements resulting in unrepresentative values. The air
quality data were used to calculate monthly average SO2 and SO* concentrations for 140- by
140-km grid squares.
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SECTION 4
RESULTS FOR JANUARY (1975-1978)
SO 2 Concentrations
The calculated and measured SO2 concentrations (/xg/m3) for the month of January for
each of the four years 1975, 1976, 1977, and 1978 are shown in Figures 2 through 5." These
figures also show the monthly mean wind vector fields of the 3-hourly winds used for transport-
ing the puffs. Results for the calculated January SO2 dry depositions, which are proportional to
the calculated SO2 concentrations, are shown in Appendix A.
January 1975—The mean wind field for January 1975 [Figure 2(c)l shows a rather
interesting wave structure across the United States with southerly flow onto the Midwest (espe-
cially Illinois) and an anticyclonic vortex over the Southeast. This January wind pattern is dis-
tinctly different from those for 1976, 1977, and 1978. The calculated SO2 concentration field
[Figure 2(a)J shows maximum concentrations ( > 64 ^g/m3) near Pittsburgh, and other high
concentration centers ( > 32 ng/m3) near the cities of New York, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit,
Sudbury (Ontario), and in eastern Kentucky—generally corresponding with high emission areas.
Relatively high calculated SO2 concentrations also appear near Atlanta and Mobile. A calcu-
lated pocket of relatively low values ( < 16 /zg/m3) crosses central Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.
This appears to have been caused by the transport of low emissions from the Arkansas area
and the removal of pollutants from the air by heavy precipitation just prior to its entering the
central Illinois-Indiana-Ohio area.*
The measured values for the January 1975 SO2 concentrations are shown in Figure 2(b).
A comparison of the calculated and measured values shows that:
• The calculated SO2 concentration pattern has a maximum peak value of 72 /j.g/m3 over
the Pittsburgh area. This compares favorably with the measured values that reach 87
Atg/m3 in this area, although the measured peak value appears to be displaced slightly
southward.
• The high calculated SO2-concentrations over the Pittsburgh, Detroit, and New York
areas generally coincide with the location of relatively high measured values. However,
the measured concentrations tend to show higher values throughout the Northeast,
whereas the calculated results do not. This effect is not as noticeable in later years
and possibly is seen because emissions representative of 1977 were used as the
bases for these 1975 calculations.
'The calculated values are depicted by isolines that are machine-drawn at values of 2, 4, 8, 16, 32,... (/ug/m3), with lo-
cal maxima indicated at"+" marked locations. The measured values are depicted by isolines that are hand-drawn to
values averaged over 140- by 140-km squares. (Hand-drawn isolines are not shown for values below 8 /
'The precipitation chart is shown later in Figure 10(b).
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• The low calculated-concentration region over the Illinois-lndiana-Ohio area does not
appear in the measured data, nor do the high calculated values over southern Ohio,
western Kentucky, and northern Alabama. Again, this is quite possibly attributable to
the use of 1977 emission data.
• The measured concentrations show much higher values over St. Paul and St. Louis
than those shown by the calculated results. A number of high isolated measured
values (from 10 to 40 ng/m3) in the western part of the domain (e.g., South Dakota,
Iowa, and Colorado) lie in regions where the calculated values of SO2 concentrations
are below 2 /^g/m3. These discrepancies are probably caused by the measurement's
being located close to local sulfur emission sources and being unrepresentative of
regional values. These isolated high concentrations in the west did not appear in the
measurements of subsequent years—possibly because data from these sites were
rejected or the monitoring efforts at the sites were discontinued. Also, it should be
realized that the model considers no emissions west of 105* W. In reality, such emis-
sions do exist and would have some impact on the western part of the model domain.
January 1976—The wind pattern for the January 1976 period [Figure 3(c)l is noticeably
different from the wave structure of January 1975 [Figure 2(c)]. The field has a much simpler
pattern of northwesterly winds in the western half of the domain and westerly winds over the
eastern half of the domain. The SO2 concentrations for the January 1976 period [Figure 3(a)]
are similar to those for January 1975 [Figure 2(a)], but differ in detail because of the
differences in the transport winds. There is a broader area of slightly higher concentrations
centered over the New York area, apparently because of lighter transport winds during January
1976. The 34-/xg/m3 isoline for January 1976 extends only to the eastern border of Illinois; for
January 1975 it extends farther west to the western border of Illinois, also apparently because
of different average wind speeds. The strip of relatively low concentrations across central
Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio that appears in the SO2 concentration field of January 1975 does not
appear in the January 1976 field.
The measured SO2 concentration values for January 1976 [Figure 3(b)l are noticeably
larger than those for January 1975 [Figure 2(b)], but they have many similarities; for example,
they both show peak values near Pittsburgh, New York, Detroit, Buffalo, and St. Louis. The
measured data for January 1976 appear to agree better with the calculated results, probably
because the 1977 emission data are more applicable for this period. For example, the January
1976 measured data show relatively high values for SO2 concentrations over western Kentucky
and eastern Tennessee, consistent with the calculated results and emission data. However, the
calculated SO2 concentration values are generally lower than the measured. Also, there is a
123-,u.g/m3 measured value in Canada and some large values in the western area of the domain
(e.g., a 26-/ug/m3 value in eastern Colorado and a 22-^g/m3 value near Tulsa, Oklahoma)—
these are not seen in the calculated results, probably because the measurements are biased by
local sources.
January 7977—The winds for January 1977 [Figure 4(c)J are very similar to those for 1976
[Figure 3(c)l, except that there is a slight northerly component off the East Coast. Because of
this similarity in the transport winds, the calculated SO2 concentration patterns for January
1977 [Figure 4(a)] are also very similar to those calculated for January 1976.
The measured SO2 concentrations for January 1977 are very similar to those for January
1976. However, the emission data are actually those for the year 1977, so the comparison of
the calculated and measured values for January 1977 is more meaningful than those for the
other years. The SO2 concentration patterns of the model calculations compare quite favorably
with the measured ones, especially in areas of high concentration. For example, both the
13
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calculated and measured values show maxima in the New York area, as well as in the
Pittsburgh area; these maxima are also comparable. However, as in January 1976, the calcu-
lated values are generally lower than the measured values; this is believed to be partially
caused by the use of mixing-height values in the model that were too high.
There are some significant differences between the calculated and measured concentra-
tions at some specific locations. In the northwestern part of the area, measured values of 42
and 61 ^g/m3are found along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border, while the maximum calculated
value along this border (near St. Paul) is 11 /ig/m3. There is also a 113 fj.g/m3 observation near
Flint, Michigan, that is not depicted by the calculated values. Another noticeable discrepancy
between the calculated and measured concentrations occurs at the western boundary of the
model domain, where measured values exceed 16 /xg/m3 in eastern Colorado and New Mexico.
However, all these measured data belong to a population-oriented classification of the SAROAD
data, and may not be representative of regional values.
January 1978—The January winds for 1978 [Figure 5(c)] are very similar to those for 1977
and 1976, except that the wind magnitudes are somewhat lighter and have a slightly more dom-
inating northerly component in the western half of the domain. Again, because of this similarity
in winds, the calculated SO2 concentrations for January 1978 [Figure 5(a)] are very similar to
those calculated for January 1977 [Figure 4(a)] and January 1976 [Figure 3(a)l.
The measured SO2 concentrations for January 1978 [Figure 5(b)l show some noticeable
differences from the measured data for the previous years, and thus differ from the calculated
results [Figure 5(a)]. The Pittsburgh region does not appear to be as dominating as in previous
years, but there are now higher measured values in West Virginia and eastern New York, and
lower values in Ohio. These difference may be attributable to significant changes in the actual
sulfur emissions for the year 1978; ENAMAP-1 calculations based on an updated emissions
inventory for 1978 would reveal if this were true.
SO 4 Concentrations
The calculated and measured SOJ concentrations (/xg/m3) for January of each of the four
years 1975, 1976, 1977, and 1978 are shown in Figures 6 through 9. Since the SO^ concen-
tration fields are strongly dependent on the transport wind field, the mean monthly wind charts
are repeated in these figures for ease of comparison [e.g., Figure 6(c) is identical to Figure
2(c)]. It should be realized that monthly average wind vectors can be misleading and not
always representative of the actual daily weather. Results for the calculated January SO4 dry
depositions, which are proportional to the calculated SOJ concentrations, are shown in Appen-
dix A.
January 1975—The calculated SO^ concentration pattern for January 1975 [Figure 6(a)l is
a very interesting one. A strip of higher SOJ concentrations ( > 8 /ug/m3) extends across the
Northeast, strongly reflecting the anticyclonic pattern of the wind field. This SO4 field shows
relatively low values in the central Illinois-lndiana-Ohio area, as did the SO2 field; however, the
low SO4 concentrations also extend across Illinois into the western Kentucky-Tennessee area.
Comparison of the calculated and measured SOJ" concentrations for January 1975 [Figure
6(b)] is difficult because of the lack of an extensive monitoring network. However, where there
are data, the comparison is generally very good. For example, the strip of high calculated
values mentioned above, which extends across the southern tips of the Great Lakes and across
Pennsylvania, appears to be depicted by the measured data. The measured data show
14
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relatively low values in the southeastern and northeastern United States, in agreement with the
calculated results. A few measured values in the western part of the domain are relatively high
and inconsistent with the calculated values; however, these measurements are probably asso-
ciated with local sources.
January 1976—The calculated SO; concentration pattern for this period [Figure 7(a)]
shows a center of high values ( > 8 /^g/m3) over the northeastern United States, while west of
the Mississippi, the concentrations become quite low ( < 2 /ug/m3). The high values in the
northeast of the United States indicate that there was a transport of the pollutant into this area,
although this is not distinctly shown by the mean wind pattern of Figure 7(c). The calculated
SOJ concentrations for January 1976 [Figure 7(a)] and 1975 [Figure 6(a)l show definite
differences. The SO; concentrations in New England were relatively low in January 1975,
apparently because of stronger transport winds over this area. Also, the January 1976 pattern
does not show as much variability in SO J concentrations as were produced in the Southeast
during January 1975 in association with the anticyclonic circulation.
The SO4 monitoring sites in January 1976 were again sparse. The available data [Figure
7(b)] appear to be generally consistent with the calculated concentrations. A large value (15
/ng/m3) in southern Michigan and a large value (11 ^g/m3) in North Carolina are inconsistent
with the calculated results.
January 1977— The calculated SO; concentrations for January 1977 [Figure 8(a)l show
that the higher SO;* concentrations ( > 8 /xg/m3) are centered over the northeastern United
States as in 1976; however the "8" isoline extends farther west, apparently because of
differences in the transporting winds that are not evident from the monthly mean fields. The
high SO4 concentrations off the East Coast in 1975, 1976, and 1977 are a reflection of a pre-
vailing wind blowing from northwest to southeast.
The number of available measured SO; concentrations for January 1977 [Figure 8(b)l
provide a more desirable coverage. The measured data show high values in the northeastern
United States that are consistent with the calculated values (based on 1977 emission data).
However, some high measured values (up to 10 ^g/m3) that have been recorded west of the
Mississippi are probably unrepresentative data.
January 1978—The calculated SO; concentration pattern for January 1978 [Figure 9(a)] is
very similar to that for January 1977 [Figure 8(a)]. However, the 8-/*g/m3 isoline does not
extend off the coast into the Atlantic apparently because the wind did not blow sulfur pollution
off the coast as frequently during this January period as it did in 1977. The available mea-
sured data for this period [Figure 8(b)l, which are again quite spotty, appear to be reasonably
consistent with the calculations, with the exception of some high values, such as in Colorado.
SO; Wet Depositions
The calculated SO; wet-depositions (mg/m2) for January of each of the four years 1975,
1976, 1977, and 1978 are shown in Figures 10 through 13, along with the total monthly precip-
itation amounts. (The calculated SO2 wet-deposition fields for the January months are shown
in Appendix A.)
January 1975—During this winter month, high monthly precipitation amounts ( > 64 mm)
occurred in the Southeast and along the East Coast, while small amounts ( < 16 mm) occurred
in the far west of the domain [Figure 10(b)J. The small "no-rain" holes in the figures are
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probably not real and are produced by missing rain reports that are recorded as no rain. How-
ever, in the long-term ENAMAP-1 model calculations, the effects of precipitation tend to be
smoothed out. The SO|" wet-deposition pattern [Figure 10(a)] is not very different from the
concentration pattern for January 1975 [Figure 6(a)]. However, it does show more spottiness
and a greater irregularity along the strip of high values that crosses the northeast United
States.
The high precipitation amounts along the East Coast appear to be reflected in the SOT
wet depositions. However, the high precipitation amounts in the Southeast seem not to be.
This could be caused either by the rain of the South being an infrequent, intense rainfall that
does not deplete significantly more sulfur from the atmosphere than does frequent lighter rains,
or by its occurrence at times of low SO^ concentrations.
January 1976— During this winter month, areas with high monthly precipitation amounts
( > 64 mm) occurred in the Southeast and along the New England coast, while east of the
Mississippi there was generally little rain ( < 16 mm). In this case, the high-rain area in the
Southeast does seem to have affected the SOJ wet-deposition pattern [Figure 11 (a)], causing
the tongue of high values to extend down into Alabama. The overall amount of rain for January
1976 was significantly less than that for January 1975. This appears to have resulted in
overall lower calculated amounts of SO4 wet deposition for January 1976 [Figure 11 (a)] com-
pared with those of January 1975 [Figure 10(a)].
January 1977— During this winter month, an area of high precipitation ( > 64 mm)
occurred in the southeast United States over the Gulf Coast states, and there was relatively lit-
tle rain ( < 16 mm) in the northwest part of the domain [Figure 12(b)]. The effects of these
precipitation amounts are readily apparent in the SO4 wet-deposition pattern for this month
[Figure 12(a)]. For example, the SOJ wet depositions for January 1977 show some high values
in the southeast United States that do not show up in the SOJ concentration pattern [Figure
8(a)] but that do correspond with high precipitation areas.
January 7978—During this winter month, there was extensive precipitation ( > 64 mm)
over the entire Southeast and East Coast, and light amounts ( < 16 mm) in the west and (par-
ticularly) the northwest section of the domain [Figure 13(b)]. Again, this precipitation pattern is
strongly reflected in the SOJ wet-deposition pattern [Figure 13(a)].
Interregional Exchanges
Table 2(a) through (d) shows the sulfur* exchanges between the regions of Figure 1 for
January 1975, 1976, 1977, and 1978. The numerals 1 through 13 at the left of columns and
the top of rows in the matrix of this table (as well as all other similar tables in the report)
should not be confused with EPA/Canadian regions: These numbers have been assigned here
merely to facilitate the interpretation of numbers included in the matrix in terms of emitter and
receptor regions. An example of how to interpret these tables follows: Table 2(a) shows the
sulfur deposition (wet and dry) and contribution percentages resulting from emissions from
each of the 13 regions for January 1975. The values along the diagonal of the matrix represent
the amounts of sulfur (in ktons) emitted by each region that is deposited within the region
itself; for example, 59.7 ktons, or 60.5 percent, of the total sulfur deposited within the region
SO 2 SO 4-
'The amount of sulfur (S) is given by S = —-— + —-—
24
-------
designated by the numeral 2 (that is, Region V-North) came from its own emissions. Similarly,
S. Ontario received from itself 74.2 ktons, or 48.9 percent, of the total sulfur deposition. The
table also shows the amount received by each region from other emitter regions. For example,
Region V-North received 23.2 ktons, or 23.5 percent, from Region V-South; 9.5 ktons, or 9.6
percent, from Region VII; and the remainder (6.4 percent) from the other regions.
Table 2(a) through (d) provides an indication of the year-by-year changes for the January
month. For example, S. Quebec emitted 56.8 percent of the sulfur deposited within its area in
January 1975, but only 36.8 percent in January 1976. This illustrates the importance of the
yearly change in the prevailing winds and precipitation rates.
Summary
The mean January wind pattern of 1975 was noticeably different from those of 1976,
1977, and 1978, which were very similar. Consequently, the mean measured SO2 and SO?
concentration patterns for January were similar for every year but the January of 1975. In par-
ticular, the SO? concentration field for January 1975 was noticeably different from those for the
other three years: it exhibited considerable spatial variation throughout the southeastern United
States, produced by the weak anticyclonic circulation that tended to persist over this region
during January 1975.
The calculated and measured SO2 concentrations appear to show a closer agreement dur-
ing the January 1976 and 1977 periods. This is probably caused by the use of only one emis-
sion inventory, which is most representative of the January 1976 and 1977 periods.
Differences between calculated and measured SO2 concentrations are also attributable to:
• Measured data that were obtained close to a local source and therefore were
unrepresentative of large-scale area average values.
• Natural sulfur background that was not included in calculated results.
• No consideration of emission sources that were outside the domain.
The calculated and measured SO? concentrations appear to be in reasonable agreement
during all the January periods; however the measured SO? concentration data generally are
not very complete.
The January monthly precipitation amounts for all four years generally showed relatively
high values in the Southeast and along the East Coast and low values in the west of the
domain. There were, however, considerable changes in the January precipitation patterns from
year to year, which were generally reflected in the SO? wet-deposition patterns.
25
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SECTION 5
RESULTS FOR JULY (1975, 1976, 1978) AND AUGUST 1977
SO 2 Concentrations
The calculated and measured SO2 concentrations for the July months of the four years
1975, 1976, 1977, and 1978* are shown in Figures 14 through 17. Also shown in these figures
are the monthly mean wind vector fields of the 3-hourly winds used for transporting the SO2
puffs. Overall, the July winds are considerably lighter than those for the January months [part
(c) of Figures 2 through 5]. Results for the calculated July SO2 dry depositions, which are pro-
portional to the SO2 concentrations, are shown in Appendix A.
July 7975—The mean wind field for July 1975 [Figure 14(c)] shows a westerly flow in the
north and an anticyclonic flow pattern of very light winds in the southeast United States. The
calculated SO2 concentration field [Figure 14(a)l shows maximum concentrations
( ^ 64 /^g/m3) near Pittsburgh, and other high concentration centers ( > 32 ^g/m3) near the
cities of Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Sudbury (Ontario), and in eastern Kentucky—generally
corresponding with high emission areas. Relatively high calculated-concentration centers also
appear near Atlanta and Mobile. These 1975 July SOj-concentration patterns are similar to
those given for the January months [e.g., Figure 2(c)], except that in the January months the
higher SO Concentration isolines are extended more to the east because of the stronger west-
erly winds. The lighter summer winds would tend to produce relatively large model-calculated
SO2 concentrations in this July 1975 month, but this is offset by the use of a relatively high
summer mixing height.
The measured values for the July 1975 SO2 concentrations are shown in Figure 14(b).
There were no measured values available for the Canadian regions during this July 1975 period
for making comparisons with the model calculations. A comparison of the calculated and mea-
sured values shows that:
• The calculated results for July 1975 generally compare favorably with the measured
values, in regard to both patterns and magnitudes. For example, the 32 /u.g/m3 isoline
for the measured value that is centered over Pittsburgh coincides with the 32 isoline
for the calculated values; the four measured values above 40 are located within the 32
M9/m3 isoline that encompasses the calculated values greater than 32.
• The highest calculated value in the domain is 78 /ug/m3, which closely coincides with a
measured peak value of only 55. However, the calculated values apply to a 70- by
70-km grid, while the measured values apply to a 140- by 140-km grid. Thus, the mea-
sured value of 55 /ng/m3 should actually be compared with a calculated value averaged
'August data were substituted for those of July for the year 1977.
30
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over a similar area (i.e. four 70- by 70-km grid squares), which in this particular case
would give a calculated value of 59 /ug/m3.
• In some regions, the model underestimates concentrations. For example, in northwest
Georgia, a measured value of 64 /nQ/m3 is located near a calculated local maximum
value of only 34. This may be because the measured value is unrepresentative, or
because of the complexities of accurately modeling light wind situations. Also, some
measured values in the west of the domain (e.g. the 23 near Wichita) appear to be
reflecting local sulfur sources.
• In some regions, such as in western Kentucky, the model overestimates concentrations.
• The model does not accurately calculate the low measured values in the Appalachian
region, probably because the current model assumes a flat terrain.
July 7976—The wind pattern for July 1976 [Figure 15(c)] is similar to that for July 1975
[Figure 14(c)]. However, the winds are generally much stronger, and the pattern shows a wave
structure in the north. The calculated SO2 concentrations for the July 1976 period [Figure
15(a)] are similar to those for July 1975 [Figure 14(a)]. However, the maximum values are gen-
erally lower, and the 16 /ug/m3 isoline moves distinctly eastward into the New York area,
because of the stronger transport winds.
The measured SO2 concentration values for July 1976 [Figure 15(b)] are very similar to
those of July 1975 [Figure 14(b)]; for example, they both show relatively high values in the
Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Detroit, Atlanta, and St. Louis areas. The measured data for July 1976
generally agree favorably with the calculated results. As with July 1975, there are some
differences between the measured and calculated: the low measured values over Lake
Michigan do not agree with calculated values, and there is an apparently large, unrepresenta-
tive measured value in the west of the domain (a 42 /^g/m3 near Sioux City, Iowa). The mea-
sured SO2 concentrations for July 1976 appear to be generally lower over the Pittsburgh area
than those for July 1975, but show higher values over the New York area. This is consistent
with the changes seen in the calculated field.
August 1977— The August mean winds for 1977 [Figure 16(c)l are very similar to those for
July 1976. They appear to have about the same strength in the north as do the July 1976
winds, but do not show the wave structure. Because of this similarity in the transport winds,
the calculated SO2 concentration patterns for August 1977 [Figure 16(a)] are also very similar
to those calculated for July 1976 [Figure 13(a)].
The measured SO2 concentrations for August 1977 are similar to those for July in both
1975 and 1976. However, since the emission data are actually for the year 1977, the compari-
son of the calculated and measured values for August 1977 is more meaningful. The SO2-
concentration patterns of the model calculations compare quite favorably with the measured
ones; for example, the pocket of low measured values along the Tennessee/Kentucky border
appears in the calculated field, and the 41-/u,g/m3 measured value in the central north of the
domain is very close to the high calculated values ( > 16) near Rouyn, Quebec. However, as in
the July 1975 and July 1976 periods, the calculated values show peak values that are higher
than the listed measured values. There are also some significant differences between the cal-
culated and measured concentrations at specific locations; for example, high measured values
( > 16 /xg/m3) are found all along the northeastern coast, while the comparable calculated
values in this region occur only over the New York area.
The measured SO2 concentration values for this August 1977 period are considerably
lower than those for January 1977. The calculated values for August 1977 are also lower than
35
-------
those calculated for January 1977, but not by as much as the measured. This may suggest
that the ENAMAP-1 model is not depicting the seasonal variation as accurately as might be
desired—possibly because of the value assigned for the mixing height.
July 1978—The July winds for 1978 [Figure 16(c)l are very similar to the July winds for
1977, except that wind magnitudes are somewhat less in the north of the domain. Thus, the
calculated SO2 concentrations for July 1978 [Figure 17(a)] are very similar to those calculated
for July 1975 [Figure 14(a)].
The measured SO2 concentrations for July 1978 [Figure 17(b)] show some noticeable
differences from the measured summer data for the previous years, and thus from the calcu-
lated results [Figure 17(a)]. In particular, there appears to have been a significant increase in
SO2 concentrations throughout the Midwest and the northeastern United States. As with
January, these differences may be due to significant changes in the sulfur emissions for the
year 1978.
SO 4 Concentrations
The calculated and measured SOJ concentrations for the July months of the four years
1975, 1976, 1977, and 1978 are shown in Figures 18 through 21. Since the SOJ concentration
fields are strongly dependent on the transport wind field, the mean monthly wind charts are
repeated in these figures for ease of comparison [e.g., Figure 18(c) is identical to Figure 14(c)].
Results for the calculated July SOJ dry depositions, which are proportional to the SO^ concen-
trations, are shown in Appendix A.
July 1975—The calculated SO^ concentration pattern [Figure 18(a)] for July 1975 is a
symmetrical one produced by the light winds (or variable wind direction) during the month.
Comparison of the calculated and measured SOf concentrations for July 1975 [Figure 18(b)] is
difficult because of the scarcity of measured data. However, the high measured values over the
New England area are not in good agreement with the calculated values.
July 1976—The calculated SO4-concentration pattern [Figure 19(a)] shows that the center
of high values ( > 8 /ng/m3) is displaced to the southeast, lying principally over the Virginia
area with a strip of relatively high values extending southwestward into Georgia. This can be
attributed to the stronger winds [Figure 19(c)], which would have moved the emissions in this
direction. The measured SOJ concentrations for January 1976 [Figure 19(b)l are also incom-
plete, but do not appear to show the same southeast displacement as the calculated values. In
the measured data, the major SOJ pollution appears to be located over the highly SO2-emitting
Pittsburgh area. Also, as was noted for July 1975, the relatively high measurement of SO4
values suggests either that the calculated values are slightly low or that the SO^ measure-
ments are somewhat biased by local SO4 sources.
August 1977— The calculated SOi" concentrations for August 1977 [Figure 20(a)l show a
distinct southwest-to northeast elongation of the concentration isolines. ENAMAP-1 appears to
have performed quite well in calculating these SOj concentrations for this summer period,
since they compare very favorably with the measured values [Figure 20(b)]. The higher SO^
concentrations ( > 8 /ng/m3) occur over the northeastern United States in both the calculated
and measured fields, with peak values (17 ng/m3) occurring near the Pittsburgh area. A region
of low concentrations is indicated in both the calculated and measured fields over eastern
Kentucky, although the measured concentrations are somewhat lower than the calculated.
36
-------
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July 1978—The calculated SO;-concentration pattern for July 1978 [Figure 21 (a)] is simi-
lar to that for 1977 [Figure 14(a)]. The available measured data for this period [Figure 21 (b)l
show a pattern that is reasonably consistent with the calculated one. However, the measured
SO4 values appear to be significantly higher than the calculated, possibly because of an
increase in the sulfur emission in 1978 that was not accounted for in the model calculations.
SO 4 Wet Depositions
The calculated SO; wet-deposition fields for the July months of the four years are shown
in Figures 22 through 25, along with the total monthly precipitation amounts. (The calculated
SO2 wet-deposition fields are shown in Appendix A.)
July 1975—During this summer month, high monthly precipitation amounts ( > 64 mm)
occurred in the southeast, along the East Coast, and along the easternmost Canadian/United
States border [see Figure 22(b)l. The SO; wet-deposition pattern for this month [Figure 22(a)l
is basically similar to the SO; concentration pattern [Figure 18(a)]. However, the SO; wet
depositions show more spottiness and higher values along the high precipitation areas men-
tioned above. In particular, maximum values occur along Lakes Erie and Ontario in areas of
high precipitation. Precipitation is also reflected in the SO; wet-deposition pattern at other
locations; for example, the low precipitation amounts over northwestern Missouri and
northwestern Wisconsin appear to have resulted in low wet depositions of SO; in these same
areas.
Rain amounts in the westernmost part of the domain (particularly the southwest part) were
considerably higher during July of 1975 than during the January 1975 period (see Figure 10).
Consequently, the July 1975 SO; wet-deposition pattern shows higher values over this western
section than does the January 1975 pattern.
July 1976— During this summer month, some high monthly precipitation amounts ( >64
mm) occurred in the South and along and off the East Coast [Figure 23(b)]. The effect of this
precipitation is reflected in the SO; wet depositions [Figure 23(a)]. The largest values extend
from the Pittsburgh area on into the Atlantic Ocean consistent with areas of higher precipita-
tion. The greater rain amounts in the South appear to have produced greater wet depositions in
this section of the U.S. Also, the tongue of high SO; wet depositions that protrudes into
Nebraska and South Dakota coincides with a band of relatively high precipitation amounts
along the same area.
August 7977—During this summer month, an area of high precipitation ( > 64 mm)
occurred along the south and southeast coast and within the center of the domain [Figure
23(b)]. The effects of these precipitation amounts are readily apparent in the SO; wet-
deposition pattern [Figure 23(a)]. In particular, the SO; wet deposition field for the August
1977 period shows some relatively high values in the interior of the domain that do not appear
in the SO; concentrations [Figure 18(a)]. The low wet-deposition amounts located off the
southern coast are probably caused by southerly winds, which did not transport any pollutant
into the area. Although highest SO; concentrations occurred in areas near Pittsburgh, the
highest SO; wet deposition occurred in New York State, where the precipitation amounts were
higher.
July 1978—During this summer month, there were high precipitation amounts ( > 64 mm)
over the southeastern coastal areas and over the northeastern part of the domain [Figure
24(b)l. This precipitation pattern is again reflected in the SO; wet-deposition pattern [Figure
41
-------
24(a)]. However, the highest SO; wet depositions, and the patterns in general, closely follow
those of the SO J concentrations [Figure 21 (a)].
Interregional Exchanges
Table 3(a) through (d) shows the total sulfur exchanges between the different regions of
Figure 1 for the July months of the years 1975, 1976, 1977 (August), and 1978. Table 3(a)
shows that during July 1975, 56.0 ktons, or 70.3 percent, of the total sulfur deposition within
the V-North region came from its own emissions. Region V-North also received 14.1 ktons, or
17.7 percent, from Region V-South; 3.9 ktons, or 4.9 percent, from Region VII and S. Ontario;
and the remainder (2.2 percent) from the other regions.
Table 3(a) through (d) provides an indication of the year-to-year changes for the July
month. For example, it shows that S. Quebec produced 57 percent of the sulfur deposited
within its area in July 1976, but only 40 percent in August 1977. This again illustrates the
importance of the change in winds and precipitation rate from year to year.
Summary
The mean July wind patterns were fairly similar for all four years, except for differences in
the mean wind vector magnitudes. Consequently, the mean measured July SOrconcentration
patterns and SO;-concentration patterns were also similar; however, the SO4 concentrations
showed some yearly variations.
The calculated and measured SO2 concentrations appear to show reasonable agreement
during all the July periods, but with noticeable differences. The calculated and measured SO;
concentrations appear to be in reasonable agreement during the August 1977 and July 1978
periods, but not during the other two summer periods (July 1975 and July 1976). Possible
causes of the differences between calculated and measured SO2 and SO; concentrations were
discussed in the January summary.
The July monthly precipitation amounts for the four years generally showed relatively high
values along the southern and eastern coasts. However, there were considerable changes in
the July precipitation patterns from year to year that were generally reflected in the SO; wet-
deposition patterns.
42
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