EPA-600/5-76-001
March, 1976
FIRST YEAR WORK PLAN
for a
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT OF
WESTERN ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
By
Irvin L. (Jack) White F. Scott LaGrone
Michael A. Chartock C. Patrick Bartosh
R. Leon Leonard Gerald M. Clancy
Cary N. Bloyd William D. Conine
Martha W. Gilliland B. Russ Epright
Edward J. Malecki Susan R. Fernandes
Edward B. Rappaport David C. Grossman
W. F. (Kirk) Holland
Julia C. Lacy
Tommie D. Raye
E. Douglas Sethness
Joe D. Stuart
M. Lee Wilson
David B. Cabe
Contract Number 68-01-1916
Program Element EHA 547
PROJECT OFFICER
Steven E. Plotkin
Office of Energy, Minerals, and Industry
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D.C. 20460
Prepared for: Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D.C. 20460
, •** *
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EPA Review Notice
This report has been reviewed by the Environmental Protection Agency
and approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the
contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Environ-
mental Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names or
commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation of use.
ii
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FOREWORD
This Work Plan for a Technology Assessment of energy development
in the Western United States is one of the first products of the
Integrated Assessment Program established by the Office of Energy,
Minerals, and Industry (OEMI), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA). The Integrated Assessment Program was begun in response to
recommendations of an interagency Task Force established by the
Office of Management and Budget to examine the Federal research
program in "Health and Environmental Effects of Energy Use." The
Task Force concluded that the social and economic consequences of
alternative energy and environmental policies needed to be considered
in very close coordination with the examination of the health and
environmental consequences of such policies. They recommended the
formation of a research program to identify "environmentally,
socially, and economically acceptable (energy development) alterna-
tives" by integrating the results of socio-economic, health effects,
and ecological impacts research (Report of the Interagency Work Group
on Health and Environmental Effects of Energy Use, November, 1974,
prepared for the Office of Management and Budget; Council on Environ-
mental Quality, Executive Office of the President).
This report is an appropriate choice to inaugurate the Integrated
Assessment Program. The purpose of any Technology Assessment is to
place the development of a new technology, or the expansion of an
existing technology into a new area, into a social/economic/political/
cultural perspective.... to look beyond the primary effects of that
technology to those "impacts that are unintended, indirect, and delayed"
(Joseph Coates in The Futurist, December, 1971). This is clearly the
intent, as described above, of the Interagency Task Force recommendation.
This report was prepared by the Science and Public Policy Program
(S&PP) of the University of Oklahoma in Norman, and the Radian Corporation
of Austin, Texas. The Project Director is Irvin L. (Jack) White,
Assistant Director of S&PP and Professor of Political Science at the
University. F. Scott LaGrone, Vice-President of Radian Corporation,
is Assistant Project Director. The EPA Project Officer is Steven E.
Plotkin of the Office of Energy, Minerals, and Industry.
The report presents a research plan for conducting a Technology
Assessment of the development of coal, oil shale, oil, natural gas,
geothermal and uranium resources in the Western United States. In
the first year, the Assessment will focus on the impacts occurring
within the States of Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Wyoming,
Montana, and the Dakotas ; will not attempt to explicitly model the
impacts of "exogeneous" (imposed from the outside) variables, such
as Gross National Product or national inflation rates, on the rate
of energy development in the West; and will place some strong
ill
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restrictions on the number of technological alternatives to be examined
in depth, focusing on those that are most advanced or for other reasons
most likely to affect the region in the mid-term (1985-2000).
The implication of these restrictions is that the Assessment is
focusing, in the first year, on the question of how to cope with
development if and when it occurs. The parallel questions that a
"complete" Technology Assessment would attempt to answer - whether
or not development should occur, and how to realize the level of
development desired (or, at least, how to predict the level likely
to occur) - require analyses considerably beyond the first-year
study boundaries.
The question of whether or not development should occur requires
an extensive analysis of two subjects:
1. How much energy, and in what forms, does the Nation
actually require in the time frame of interest?
2. What are the alternative energy supplies outside of those
in the West, and what are the consequences of developing
them?
The alternative supply question cannot be fully answered until a whole
series of Technology assessments encompassing these alternatives have
been completed and integrated. This is a key long range goal of the
Integrated Assessment Program.
The question of how to realize the level of development desired,
or how to predict the level likely to occur, requires an understanding
of supply and demand relationships and an ability to model them, that
is beyond the resources of the study team. The Federal government has
extensive efforts underway to develop the required models - the Project
Independence models are the focus of much of this effort. If these
models develop to the extent that they can be useful to this Assessment,
they will be exercised.
Stef
Deputy Assistant Administrator
for Energy, Minerals, and Industry
iv
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ABSTRACT
This report presents a Work Plan for conducting a Technology Assessment
of energy resource development in the Western U.S. The energy resources
addressed are coal, oil shale, oil, natural gas, geothermal, and uranium.
The geographical focus is on the States of North and South Dakota,
Montana, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, and Colorado. The time frame
to be addressed is the period 1975-2000. The Assessment is designed to
identify and quantify the diverse impacts of energy development in the
West, including secondary or higher order impacts. Further, the Assess-
ment will identify and assess policy alternatives for dealing with these
impacts, with a special focus on environmental protection strategies.
Nine scenarios are used to structure the analysis. Six of these are
site-specific: Kaiparowits/Escalante, Navajo (Farmington), Rifle,
Gillette, Colstrip, and Beulah. Two are river basins: the Upper Colorado
and the Upper Missouri. And one is comprised of the eight states within
which much of the six energy resources are concentrated.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section Page
CHAPTER 1
FIRST YEAR WORK PLAN REPORT
1.1 INTRODUCTION 1-1
1.2 PURPOSE AND SCOPE 1-2
1.3 SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES 1-8
1.4 ASSUMPTIONS 1-9
1.5 PLAN OF THE REPORT 1-10
CHAPTER 2
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
2.1 INTRODUCTION 2-1
2.2 ASSESSMENT PHASES 2-6
2.3 SUMMARY 2-14
CHAPTER 3
THE DESCRIPTIVE PHASE
3.1 INTRODUCTION 3-1
3.2 ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT SYSTEMS 3-2
3.3 OVERVIEW OF THE WESTERN REGION 3-3
3.4 SCENARIOS 3-5
CHAPTER 4
THE INTERACTIVE PHASE: IMPACT ANALYSIS
4.1 INTRODUCTION ' 4-1
4.2 PHYSICAL IMPACTS 4-3
4.2.1 Air Quality 4-4
4.2.2 Water Quality 4-33
4.2.3 Solid Waste 4-51
4.2.4 Noise 4-56
4.3 RESOURCE AVAILABILITY 4-65
4.3.1 Water 4-66
4.3.2 Land Consumption 4-79
4.3.3 Transportation 4-84
4.3.4 Materials and Equipment 4-89
4.3.5 Personnel 4-94
4.3.6 Financial Resource 4-102
VI
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Section Page
4.4 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 4-110
4.5 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL IMPACTS 4-129
4.6 HEALTH EFFECTS 4-145
4.7 ENERGY 4-152
4.8 AESTHETIC IMPACTS 4-156
4.9 INTEGRATING THE RESULTS OF THE IMPACT ANALYSES 4-161
CHAPTER 5
THE INTEGRATIVE PHASE: POLICY ANALYSIS
5.1 INTRODUCTION 5-1
5.2 GENERAL APPROACH TO POLICY ANALYSIS 5-3
5.3 PROCEDURES, METHODS, AND TECHNIQUES 5-8
5.4 ANTICIPATED RESULTS 5-23
5.5 DATA ADEQUACY 5-23
5.6 RESEARCH ADEQUACY 5-24
CHAPTER 6
RESEARCH ADEQUACY, DATA AVAILABILITY,
AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSES
6.1 INTRODUCTION 6-1
6.2 PROCEDURES 6-1
6.3 INFORMATION AND DATA BASE 6-2
6.4 ASSESSMENT OF DATA QUALITY AND SENSITIVITY 6-6
6.5 INDENTIFICATION OF RESEARCH NEEDS 6-8
6.6 ANTICIPATED RESULTS 6-8
CHAPTER 7
PROPOSED PERFORMANCE SCHEDULE
7.1 INTRODUCTION 7-1
7.2 THE PERFORMANCE SCHEDULE 7-2
CHAPTER 8
REPORTING RESULTS OF THE FIRST YEAR TA
8.1 INTRODUCTION 8-1
8.2 BASELINE DATA COMPILATION 8-1
8.3 ANALYTICAL RESULTS 8-3
8.4 RESEARCH ADEQUACY 8-4
8.5 DISTRIBUTION OF RESULTS 8-4
vii
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Section Page
CHAPTER 9
TENTATIVE PLANS FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD YEARS
9.1 INT RODUCTION 9-1
9.2 OVERALL 9-2
9.3 SCENARIOS 9-2
9.4 IMPACT ANALYSIS 9-4
9.5 POLICY ANALYSIS 9-6
vii i
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Page
1-1 States included in the Western Region 1-4
2-1 Conceptual Framework for Assessing Physical
Technologies 2-3
2-2 The Phases of a Technology Assessment 2-7
2-3 The Descriptive Phase 2-9
2-4 The Interactive Phase 2-12
3-1 Site-Specific and Aggregated Scenarios 3-12
3-2 Aggregation of Scenarios and Levels of Analysis 3-29
4-1 Day-Night Average Noise, L^n/ in dB 4-64
4-2 Major Elements in Ecological Impact Analysis 4-113
4-3 Examples of Vegetation Mapping at a Regional
Scale 4-116
4-4 Example of Critical Habitat Map for Major Species,
Local Scale 4-117
4-5 Simplified Interaction Model Diagram 4-122
4-6 Simplified Network Analysis 4-124
4-7 Categories of Analysis in Assessing Effects of
a New Energy Facility on a Local Area 4-132
5-1 Internal and External Review Processes 5-7
6-1 Overview of the Data Availability and Research
Adequacy Task 6-3
6-2 Specific Data Search Routine 6-4
7-1 Performance Schedule for Products During First Year 7-3
IX
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LIST OF TABLES
Colorado
for Gillette,
Table
3-1 Postulated Energy Developments for
Kaiparowits/Escalante
3-2 Postulated Energy Developments for Navajo
(Farmington, New Mexico)
3-3 Postulated Energy Developments for Rifle,
3-4 Postulated Energy Developments
Wyoming
3-5 Postulated Energy Developments for Colstrip,
Montana
3-6 Postulated Energy Developments for Beulah,
North Dakota
3-7 Site-Specific Scenario Time-Phasing
4-1 Reported Ranges in Trace Element Analysis of
U.S. Coals
4-2 Some Potentially Hazardous Components from Fuel
Coal Processing Facilities
4-3 Sound Levels Required to Protect Public Health
and Welfare
4-4 Sound Levels Permitting Speech Communication
4-5 Quality of Telephone Usage in the Presence of
Steady-State Masking Noise
4-6 Selected Major Materials and Equipment Resources
Required for Construction of Energy Facilities
4-7 Selected Major Species of the Farmington Area
4-8 Health Effects Impact Categories
4-9 Selected Hazardous Agents Associated with
Technologies
4-10 Aesthetic Opportunities Impact Categories
6-1 Section of Keyword List of Western Energy TA
Data File
Page
3-17
3-19
3-21
3-23
3-25
3-26
3-27
4-25
4-28
4-60
4-61
4-62
4-91
4-118
4-146
4-148
4-160
6-7
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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
bbl
BLM
BOD
Btu
CEQ
CFR
CO
COD
dB
dBA
EHV
EIS
EPA
ERDA
ERDS
ERIS
FEA
hp
HV
ICC
ITA
dn
L
eq
L
n
LASL
MERES
MESA
mmcf
mmscf
MT
Mw
NASA
NIOSH
NOAA
N0x
NO,,
barrels
Bureau of Land Management
biochemical oxygen demand
British thermal unit
Council on Environmental Quality
Code of Federal Regulations
carbon monoxide
chemical oxygen demand
decibel
decibels A-weighted
extra high voltage
environmental impact statement
Environmental Protection Agency
Energy Research and Development Administration
energy resource development system
Energy Research Information Service
Federal Energy Administration
horsepower
high-voltage
Interstate Commerce Commission
integrated technology assessment
(used interchangeably with TA)
daytime equivalent sound level
day-night equivalent sound level
A-weighted equivalent sound level
nighttime equivalent sound level
Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory
Matrix of Environmental Residuals for Energy Systems
Mining Enforcement Safety Administration
million cubic feet
million standard cubic feet
metric ton
megawatt
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
nitrous oxides
nitrogen dioxide
XI
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NSF
NSSP
ONAC
OPEC
OSHA
PAN
PIES
ppm
S&PP
SEAM
SEAS
SO2
SRI
ss
TA
TDS
TLV
TOSCO
UCRB
UMRB
USGS
ZDP
National Science Foundation
New Source Standards of Performance
EPA's Office of Noise Abatement and Control
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
Occupational Safety and Health Act
(or Administration)
Peroxyacyl Nitrates
Project Independence Environmental Statement
parts per million
Science and Public Policy Program
Surface Environment and Mining
Strategic Environmental Assessment System
sulfur dioxide
Stanford Research Institute
suspended solids
technology assessment
(used interchangeably with ITA)
total dissolved solids
threshold limit value
The Oil Shale Corporation
Upper Colorado River Basin
Upper Missouri River Basin
U.S. Geological Survey
Zero Discharge of Pollutants
xii
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors wish to acknowledge the efforts of many individuals on
the staffs of Radian and the Science and Public Policy (S&PP) Program
who contributed substantially to this report.
The following members of the S&PP staff provided important technical
support to this effort: Dr. Hee Man Bae, post-doctoral fellow; Timothy A.
Hall, Joe Lee Rodgers, and Rodney Freed, graduate research assistants;
and Martha T. Jordan and Nancy J. Creighton, research assistants.
The editorial/administrative staff of S&PP greatly assisted in the
preparation of this draft. Janice K. Whinery directed logistics as
project specialist; Peggy L. Neff coordinated preparation of manuscripts
as clerical supervisor, and along with secretaries Sharon S. Purse! and
Lou E. Malone, typed the numerous drafts of this manuscript. Mary Overstreet
and her staff at Radian also assisted in the preparation of manuscripts.
A draft revision of this work plan dated October 31, 1975 was widely
circulated to Federal agencies, State governments, industry, energy and
environmental researchers, interest groups, and interested individuals.
Persons receiving the draft were asked to examine it critically and to
send us their comments and suggestions. A list of the names of persons
who responded or who otherwise contributed to the development of this
work plan is presented in Appendix A.
Responsibility for the contents of this report rests solely with the
Science and Public Policy Program of the University of Oklahoma and
Radian Corporation of Austin, Texas. Any errors are those of the research
teams that prepared this report.
xiii
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CHAPTER 1
FIRST YEAR WORK PLAN REPORT
1.1 INTRODUCTION
Given its substantial and diverse energy resources, the
western U.S. is a prime regional candidate for increasing
domestic energy production. Development of these resources
will inevitably produce a broad range of economic, social,
environmental, and institutional costs and benefits, not only
locally, but nationally and internationally as well. Some of
these will fall within the Environmental Protection Agency's
(EPA) statutory responsibility for protecting the environment.
This responsibility, together with a desire to integrate the
results of other energy and environmental studies, has led EPA
to sponsor a "Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource
Development". The Science and Public Policy Program (S&PP) of
the University of Oklahoma, and Radian Corporation of Austin,
Texas, outlined a study plan for this technology assessment (TA) in
their "Technical Proposal" submitted in response to EPA's request
for proposal. This work plan report extends and clarifies the
Environmental Protection Agency (March 21, 1975) "Request
for Proposal Number WA 75X-128."
1-1
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1-2
first year study plan outlined by the S&PP-Radian team in their
proposal and subsequent "Draft First Year Work Plan Report."
1.2 PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The overall purpose of this technology assessment is to
determine the likely consequences of various patterns, rates,
and levels of development of western energy resources, and to
suggest how desirable consequences can be encouraged and
undesirable consequences either eliminated or mitigated. In
short, this is a policy-oriented technology assessment undertaken
to provide more and better information about the consequences of
development for all persons participating in making western energy
resource development policies, particularly those who make and
implement environmental protection policies.
For western energy resource development policies to be
thoroughly informed, the full range of costs and benefits resulting
from development need to be identified and assessed. While this
study is intended to identify and assess a broad range of
consequences, it cannot be comprehensive. There are several
reasons for limiting the scope: first, research resources are
limited; second, existing knowledge about impacts is deficient;
University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program
and Radian Corporation (October 31, 1975) Draft First Year Work
Plan Report for a Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource
Development. Norman, Ok.: University of Oklahoma, Science and
Public Policy Program.
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1-3
third, data are inadequate; and fourth, the requisite analytical
tools are not available.
As the project title indicates, this effort is limited
spatially to the western U.S. We define this region on the basis
of the location of large quantities of energy resources and where
it appears that large scale energy developments are most likely
to be undertaken. Emphasis will be placed on the Rocky Mountain
and Northern Great Plains states: Arizona, Colorado, Montana,
New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming (see
Figure 1-1). The procedures used in arriving at this spatial
delimitation are explained in Chapter 3. It should be noted here
that the goal is to assess developments in areas and at specific
sites in the West which include unique as well as representative
conditions.
The study will not emphasize the analysis of forces external
to the region which tend either to drive or forestall development
of western energy resources. Nor will any attempt be made to
specify an optimum rate of development. These limitations in
scope are imposed in full recognition of the importance of these
factors; but they are either excluded or deemphasized because:
(1) current national policy stresses the development of dmoestic
energy resources, including those located in the western states;
and (2) the primary planning needs of EPA, other federal agencies,
and state and local officials are for information about the
consequences of energy resource development and alternative
policies for dealing with these consequences.
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1-4
Figure 1-ls States Included in the Western Region
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1-5
The energy resource developments to be assessed include
coal, crude oil, natural gas, oil shale, uranium, and geothermal.
It is anticipated that these resources, especially coal, will
provide much of the new energy produced from the western states.
More importantly, they are energy forms which can be readily
exported to other regions of the country either as a raw resource
or as a processed fuel and contribute to a national energy supply
program. Given their importance to the nation's energy future,
the spatial and temporal distribution of costs and benefits
should be carefully assessed to inform public policies now being
made and implemented concerning the development of these resources
Tar sands and thorium are the principal minable energy
resources that are excluded, tar sands because of its limited
quantities and thorium because the development of reactors using
thorium as a fuel is deemphasized by both industry and the Energy
Research and Development Administration (ERDA). Solar power in
its various forms is not explicitly analyzed, not to deny its
'potential contribution, but because: (1) anticipated uses before
2000 are local, rather than for export from the region; and
(2) recent interfuel substitution models indicate limited
utilization of solar in the foreseeable future. For similar
Although solar energy development is not assessed, most of
the energy models used to determine what quantities of energy in
what fuel form will have to come out of the western states in
1990 and 2000, will take all energy forms into account. See
Chapter 3.
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1-6
reasons, utilization of energy from various kinds of organic
wastes is not included in the assessment. Hydroelectric resources,
although contributing substantial power in the West, have already
been largely developed and, in the future, will contribute a
diminishing share of western energy production.
Technological limitations, at least for the first year,
include restrictions on the assessment of uranium and crude oil
to exploration, extraction, and transportation technologies.
If enrichment and reactor technologies were to be included, the
scope of the project would be greatly expanded. Although there
are several refineries in the area, relatively little refinery
expansion or new grass roots facilities are planned, especially
in comparison with other areas of the U.S. The scope of the
assessment of both uranium and crude oil may be expanded in the
second and third years.
Otherwise, a wide range of technological options, from
exploration to transportation, will be included for the other
five energy resources. The specific combinations of resources
and technological alternatives to be assessed are identified in
Chapter 3.
In keeping with the integrating character of technology
assessment as a policy-informing research activity, data are
to be drawn entirely from secondary sources. This limitation
has been imposed, not only in recognition of available research
resources, but also because one of EPA's reasons for funding
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1-7
this study is to determine where there are gaps in its research
programs.
The time frame for the study is from 1975 to 2000. This
overall time period is divided into three periods: 1975 to
1980, 1990, and 2000. It should be noted that this period
includes the start-up and normal operation of energy facilities,
but not, in most cases, the subsequent shutdown. Explicit
attention will be given to the differences between construction
and operation phases during the first year. The impacts
associated with shutdown will be considered during the second
and/or third years.
Although the scope of the assessment is limited as
described above, its overall purpose will not be achieved if
the concerns of the local, state, and federal governments,
interstate and regional governmental organizations, industry,
labor, Indians and other ethnic and minority groups, and other
interested groups and individuals are not taken into account.
Consequently, the assessment described in this work plan is
designed to produce policy-informing results useful to those who
have responsibilities for or an interest in the development of
western energy resources.
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1-8
1.3 SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES
Given the overall purpose and limitations in scope
discussed above, the major objectives to be achieved by
this TA include:
1. Describing existing conditions in the western
region as they relate to energy development,
including geological, environmental, economic,
social, and political factors.
2. Describing in standard format the various energy
development systems as well as social controls
which regulate such development. (See Section 3.2
3. Evaluating published models of national energy
markets and using these to project high and low
values of the demand for western energy in its
various forms.
4. Assessing particular technological systems
which appear likely to be deployed in various
types of locations.
5. Determining the impact of hypothesized energy
facilities on air and water quality and other
relevant media.
6. Specifying relationships between changes in
environmental quality and the affected flora,
fauna, and human populations.
7. Assessing the adequacy of material, equipment,
and human resources needed for western energy
developments, especially water, transportation,
equipment, manpower, and capital.
8. Determining the range of social impacts from
developments at the local and regional levels
in such areas as migration, housing construction,
public finance, and life-style.
9. Identifying and assessing public options and
implementation strategies for dealing with
these impacts.
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CHAPTER 2
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
2.1 INTRODUCTION
Although technology assessment (TA) is in large part a
creative activity that cannot be approached as a search for
formulas or models, a general conceptual framework has been
developed for this TA. This framework is described in
this chapter. The interdisciplinary team approach used to
implement the framework is described in Chapter 5. Past
experience convinces us that a successful TA depends much more
on the approach and the make-up of the interdisciplinary team
than on the framework. The framework described in this chapter
is a product of the approach as it has been employed in the past.
As such, what is described here should be viewed as a stage of
development rather than as a final product.
As a research activity undertaken to inform policymaking, TA
has been motivated largely by the observation that the introduction,
The approach is also described in Kash, Don E., and Irvin
L. White (1971) "Technology Assessment: Harnessing Genius."
Chemical and Engineering News 49 (November 20): 36-41; and
White, Irvin L. (1975) "Interdisciplinary," pp. 87-96 in Sherry
Arnstein and Alexander N. Christakis (1975) Perspectives on
Technology Assessment. Columbus, Ohio: Academy for Contemporary
Problems.
2-1
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2-2
extension, and/or modification of technologies produce a range
of economic, social, environmental, institutional, and other
first and higher order consequences. In the past, many such
consequences have not been anticipated. This is why the
fundamental purposes of TA are to: (1) anticipate and
systematically identify, define, and analyze these broadly ranging
consequences; (2) identify, define, and analyze alternative
policies for either mitigating undesirable consequences or
2
enhancing beneficial consequences; and (3) identify, define, and
evaluate implementation strategies for feasible policy options.
A simplified systems diagram of a general TA conceptual framework
for achieving these purposes when assessing physical technologies
is displayed in Figure 2-1. This diagram shows that the inputs
and outputs of a technology interact with existing conditions to
produce impacts, some of which are perceived to be problems or
issues by one or more parties-at-interest or participants active in
the policy system. Policymakers respond to some or all of the
demands that problems or issues be resolved by searching out
For a recent description of TA, see Arnstein, Sherry R.,
and Alexander N. Christakis (1975) Perspectives on Technology
Assessment, based on a workshop sponsored by the Academy for
Contemporary Problems and the National Science Foundation.
Columbus, Ohio: Academy for Contemporary Problems.
2
Since what is considered desirable or undesirable varies
among individuals and groups, desirability or undesirability has
to be established on the basis of specific criteria. The
criteria used in this TA will be made explicit when results are
reported.
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2-4
feasible policy alternatives and implementation strategies.
All of this takes place under varying degrees of uncertainty.
Generally, uncertainty is less with regard to physical
technologies than with more subjective policy constraints.
However, both input and output data for technologies, as well as
data on existing conditions, are not always complete or reliable;
nor are all impacts or interactions among impacts likely to be
identified and their significance ascertained.
As implied in Figure 2-1, there are degrees of uncertainty
associated with data and analytical tools—some data and tools
are more reliable than others. Furthermore, uncertainty is
compounded when the uncertainties associated with technologies,
existing conditions, impacts, perceptions, constraints, and
policies are combined. Consequently, the whole policy analysis
task begins with an uncertain data and knowledge base. This
difficulty does not lessen the need for TA; it does, however,
highlight the uncertainties which underlie it as a research
activity intended to inform policymakers. In short, TA is not
a policymaker's panacea. A TA can help to organize and to some
extent reduce uncertainty; it cannot eliminate it.
Criteria for establishing feasibility must also be
specified, as they will be when policy analyses are reported.
Chapter 5, Policy Analysis, describes the procedures that will
be used to develop criteria of both desirability and feasibility.
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2-5
The oversimplified nature of Figure 2-1 should also be
stressed. For example, the system diagrammed is an open system.
That is, the system is subject to the influence of external
forces such as policy changes of the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Complex feedbacks are also oversimplified in Figure 2-1.
For example, feedback from energy policy alternatives shows that:
(1) policy alternatives and implementation strategies may modify
individual and group perceptions, thereby resolving or modifying
an issue; (2) policy alternatives can change the conditions which
previously existed, especially as they interact with the outputs
of technologies; and (3) policy alternatives and implementation
strategies may call for a technological change or process
alteration which eliminates, reduces, or otherwise alters the
output which caused an impact to be perceived as a problem in
the first place.
It should also be noted that the problems and issues to be
assessed are identified in two ways. First, problems and issues
are frequently identified by interested individuals, groups,
and/or policymakers because the consequences of some action(s)
have been or are anticipated to be significant enough to warrant
public attention. This is certainly true in many instances with
regard to western energy development where participants in the
policy system have already perceived, among others, problems in
air and water quality, water quantity, quality of life, and
social infrastructure.
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2-6
The second source of problems and issues is the unanticipated
consequences identified by the TA. In fact, a major
reason for conducting TA is to identify unanticipated consequences
that will cause problems and issues to arise. Problems and
issues identified in both ways are introduced into the policy
analysis process.
2.2 ASSESSMENT PHASES
The conceptual framework for TA being used in this study
attempts to simplify the inevitable complexity confronting
technology assessors and to make their tasks somewhat more
manageable than they would otherwise be. In Figure 2-2, we show
the three phases into which TA tasks are divided: the Descriptive,
the Interactive, and the Integrative Phases. Although these three
phases are essentially sequential at the outset of a TA,
numerous feedbacks require frequent iterations as the TA
progresses. {See Figures 2-1 and 2-2.)
2.2.1 The Descriptive Phase
Deploying a technology creates certain demands and produces
a range of outputs or residuals in addition to the primary
product. Demands include such general input requirements as
Problems may occur whenever there is doubt, uncertainty,
and difficulty. A problem becomes an issue when a dispute
develops. For example, revegetation of strip-mined lands was
identified as a problem before it developed into a political
issue.
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2-7
•
•
DESCRIPTIVE PHASE
Identify and describe the technology
Describe the existing conditions
INTERACTIVE PHASE
Relate the technology to existing conditions
>
Identify and define higher order consequences
INTEGRATIVE PHASE
Identify and define problems, issues, and
relevant policymaking systems
Identify and analyze policy alternatives
and implementation strategies
I
'
Figure 2-2: The Phases of a Technology Assessment
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2-8
water, money, manpower, and materials. Outputs or residuals
include, among others, pollutants such as air emissions and
water effluents. Residuals also include such things as noise and
aesthetics. It is the interactions of these inputs and outputs
with existing environmental conditions which produce the impacts
addressed by a TA. In the Descriptive Phase of a TA, the
technology or resource development system which is to be deployed
and the place where it is to be deployed are described. Elements
of the Descriptive Phase are indicated in Figure 2-3. The
description of the technology includes the identification and
quantification of inputs and outputs. A location has to be
specified before existing conditions can be described. Scenarios
2
can be used to do this. By anticipating impacts and their
potential range, it is possible to specify at least the principal
baseline data likely to be required to analyze impacts at a
specific location. Obviously, some impacts will extend beyond
the immediate site at which the technology is deployed. For
example, impacts produced by air pollutants are not likely to be
as localized as are the impacts resulting from the generation of
solid wastes. Consequently, when impacts are being anticipated
as the basis for establishing initial baseline data categories,
For the explanation of what an energy resource development
system is, see Chapter 3 and Appendix B.
2
The scenarios to be analyzed in this study are described
in Chapter 3.
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2-9
IDENTIFY AND DESCRIBE THE TECHNOLOGY
For the single process (such as Lurgi gasification)
or a combination of processes (such as coal
mining, power generation, and high voltage
transmission), specify:
STEP i. input requirements—water, capital,
manpower, and materials, for example;
2. Outputs or residuals—high-Btu gas, SO2,
NOX, particulates, sludge, liquid wastes,
and noise, for example;
3. Social controls—such as permits and
standards.
DESCRIBE EXISTING CONDITIONS
For the site or area within which the technology
is to be deployed, describe existing
conditions, including, among others:
1. Topography and geology
2. Climatology
STEP
3. Ecology
11 4. Social infrastructure
5. Sectors of economic activity
6. Land use patterns
7. Active parties-at-interest
8. Problems and issues
9. Policymaking systems
Figure 2-3: The Descriptive Phase
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2-10
it is also essential that a first-cut analysis be undertaken to
establish both the temporal and geographical range for these
categories.
In summary, the product of the Descriptive Phase is the
baseline data needed to determine impacts when a technology or
technological system is interacted with existing conditions at a
particular location. Given their tentative character, initial
baseline data are likely to be revised and expanded throughout
the TA. For this "Technology Assessment of Western Energy
Resource Development," the products of the Descriptive Phase are
descriptions of six energy resource development systems (ERDS),
an overview description of the region, and descriptions of
existing conditions at the locations specified in the scenarios.
The use of these products will be described in Chapter 3, when
the scenarios are identified and briefly described.
2.2.2 The Interactive Phase
Predicting the consequences of the deployment of a
technological system is inherently a complex and difficult task.
This complexity can be lessened somewhat by dividing impact
analysis into two levels: the initial changes in existing
conditions which occur when a technology is deployed; and the
higher order consequences which flow from these changes. Initial
changes in existing conditions might include, for example, changes
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2-11
in total population, land-use patterns, air and water quality,
and an .increased local demand for water resources. Consequences
of these initial changes are then systematically traced to
determine their higher order consequences. For example, the
addition of specified quantities of air pollutants emitted from
a coal gasification facility can change the existing air quality
conditions in the surrounding area. The ambient concentrations
of particular pollutants may be increased, for example. Health
effects which might result from this initial change are
illustrative of the higher order impacts that will be traced and
analyzed. Another example is tracing the impact of overall
population changes on the social infrastructure, on the capacity
of the existing system to deliver social services such as
education and health care, for example. (See Figure 2-4.)
2.2.3 The Integrative Phase
Policy alternatives are identified and assessed in the
Integrative Phase. (See Figure 2-5.) This analysis includes
procedures for identifying problems, issues, and relevant
policymaking systems; determining a range of policy alternatives
and implementation strategies, and assessing these as they are
affected by a number of constraints.
Policymakers will often wish or be encouraged to attempt
either to resolve or eliminate some of the problems and issues
called to their attention. Not all of the policy options
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2-12
STEP
I
DETERMINE INITIAL CHANGES IN EXISTING CONDITIONS
Determine the changes likely to occur when the
technology is constructed, operated, and
shutdown, for example, changes in:
1. Overall population
2. Concentrations of air pollutants
3. Land use
4. Water quality
STEP
II
IDENTIFY AND ANALYZE HIGHER ORDER CONSEQUENCES
Trace impacts to identify higher order consequences,
for example, consequences for:
1. Human health
2. Social services
3. Sectors of economic activity
4. Quality of life
5. Power structure
6. Habitat attrition
Figure 2-4: The Interactive Phase
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2-13
STEP
I
IDENTIFY AND DEFINE PROBLEMS AND ISSUES
Anticipated problems and issues identified as an
existing condition; and
Problems and issues which arise because of impacts
identified by the assessment; and
Policymaking systems for addressing these problems
and issues.
STEP
II
IDENTIFY AND DESCRIBE POLICY ALTERNATIVES
AND IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGIES
For the problems and issues that have been
identified, identify and describe alternative
courses of action by various levels of government.
These could include:
1.
2.
3.
Technological f ixes--process changes and
environmental control technologies, for
example.
Regulatory action — stricter enforcement or
revised standards, for example.
New legislation.
STEP
III
IDENTIFY POSSIBLE CONSTRAINTS
Policy alternatives and implementation strategies
need to be filtered to determine whether there
are constraints which will make them infeasible.
Constraints may, among others, be:
1. Legal
2. Political
3. Social
4. Cultural
5. Economic
6. Technological
Figure 2-5: The Integrative Phase
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2-14
available to them are equally desirable, feasible, or efficient.
Some of the options may be technological fixes involving, for
example, process manipulations or the imposition of an
environmental control technology; others may involve the imposition
of regulatory controls or the tightening, enforcement, relaxation,
or elimination of existing controls. Some options could be
implemented by administrative order, while others might require
legislative action. And some might be widely supported by the
parties-at-interest who are actively involved, while others may
be opposed so strongly as to be politically infeasible. Thus, the
policy alternatives and implementation strategies that are
proposed for modifying or eliminating undesirable higher order
consequences have to be evaluated using more than the criterion
of whether they could technically achieve the desired objective.
A broad range of intervening variables such as social values and
needs, the political strength of affected interest groups,
economic costs, and other barriers to implementing the policy
have to be taken into account in the assessment.
The term "technological fix" was coined by Alvin Weinberg
to describe an approach to problem solving which emphasizes
hardware development rather than modifying human behavior
patterns. For example, a technological fix approach to auto
safety is to make the vehicle so safe that it is difficult for
humans to injure or kill themselves. An alternative approach
is to attempt to modify the driving practices, for example, by
convincing drivers not to drive when they have been drinking,
not to drive at speeds unsafe for conditions, and so forth.
Problem solving often combines the two approaches. But there
has been a tendency in recent years to look for technological
fixes to what are basically behavior problems.
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2-X5
2.3 SUMMARY
TA are undertaken to inform policymakers. The conceptual
framework described in this chapter divides TA into three phases
to produce policy-informing results. Although the three are
closely interrelated, a distinctive analytical purpose is achieved
within each. This purpose and the product of each phase have
been described in general terms to explain and illustrate the
rationale underlying this draft work plan for a "Technology
Assessment of Western Energy Resource Development." In the
chapters which follow, the adaptation of the general TA conceptual
framework and how it is to be utilized in this TA will be made
more explicit.
-------
CHAPTER 3
THE DESCRIPTIVE PHASE
3.1 INTRODUCTION
In the Descriptive Phase of a technology assessment (TA),
the technologies to be assessed and the place where they are to
be located are identified and described. The products of the
Descriptive Phase for this study include the following:
A description of the energy resource development
systems (ERDS). These include the technologies
used to develop the resources, the inputs, outputs
(including products and residuals) for these
technologies, and the social controls (permit
requirements and discharge regulations, for
example) applied when these technologies are
deployed.
An overview of the western region which sets the
context of the study and provides a basis for
locating energy development facilities. This
description includes an identification of some
of the major issues which have arisen in
connection with western energy development and
which influenced the selection of developments
to be assessed in this study.
A description of the scenarios which configure
various hypothetical patterns and levels of
development whose impacts are to be determined
in the Interactive Phase.
In this chapter each of these products will be described
briefly. Because of their key role, the scenarios receive
special emphasis.
3-1
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3-2
3.2 ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT SYSTEMS
Conceptually, an ERDS encompasses a resource, the technologies
required to develop it, and the social controls that are imposed
when these technologies are deployed. Descriptions of ERDS for
each of the six resources—coal, oil shale, oil, natural gas,
geothermal, and uranium—are being prepared and will be revised
periodically to provide a data base for this TA.
The resource base description provides a national overview
of each of the six resources and gives their distribution within
the western states. It also divides the total resource endowment
into categories on the basis of existing knowledge of the resource
and the economic feasibility of recovery.
The technologies description will include the major
technological alternatives for exploration, extraction, conversion,
and transportation of each of the six energy resources. Processes
are described as are input materials and personnel requirements,
outputs and residuals, energy requirements, and internalized costs.
To the extent it is possible, these descriptions are quantified
and detailed enough to illustrate differences among process
alternatives.
The social controls descriptions generally identify the
existing legal, administrative, and regulatory environment for
Theobald, P.K., S.P. Schweinfurth, and D.C. Duncan, eds.
(1972) Energy Resources of the United States, USGS Circular 650.
Washington: Government Printing Office, p. 3.
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3-3
the six energy resources and the various technological activities
related to their development, production, and transportation.
The descriptions generally include existing requirements for
permits, leasing regulations, standards, and other specifications
affecting resource development.
An outline of the oil shale ERDS is presented in Appendix B
to show the organization and contents of an ERDS.
3.3 OVERVIEW OF THE WESTERN REGION
The purpose of the regional overview is to provide a general
description of the context within which the development of western
energy resources is taking place. The overview will include
sections on topography, geology, weather patterns, water resources,
ecology, socioeconomic conditions, transportation networks,
intergovernmental structure (for example, interstate compacts
and organizations), parties-at-interest, likely patterns of
energy resource development, and development problems that have
already been identified. The problems that have arisen either
because of current or anticipated energy developments have played
a major role in shaping the scenarios to be described in this
chapter.
Informal practices and institutions such as interest group
politics or related sanctions which have evolved to supplement
the workings of the formalized elements will be described and
analyzed in the site-specific scenario analysis.
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3-4
The following are among the problems frequently mentioned
when western energy development is discussed:
Water quantity, both surface and ground,
particularly in the arid and semiarid parts ,
of the region and in the Colorado River Basin.
Water quality, as impacted directly by energy
development and indirectly by increases in
population.
Air quality, particularly at locations and ..,
in areas where air•quality is now quite high.
Distribution of costs and benefits with a
concern on the part of some that the region
is being asked to pay a disproportionate
share of the associated costs of development.
Intra- and intergovernmental cooperation and
coordination.
Capital availability, both for energy development
and the front-end costs to local and state
governments for social infrastructure developments
such as schools, public health and safety,
highways, and so forth.3
National Petroleum Council, Committee on U.S. Energy
Outlook, Other Energy Resources Subcommittee (1973) U.S. Energy
Outlook: Water Availability. Washington: NPC; and Radian
Corporation (1975) A Western Regional Energy Development Study,
Vol. III. Austin, Texas: Radian Corporation, Appendix B.
2
Environmental Protection Agency and Federal Agency
Administration (1975) An Analysis of the Impact on the Electric
Utility Industry of Alternative Approaches to Significant
Deterioration, Vol. I: Executive Summary. Washington:
Government Printing Office.
3Bellas, Albert C. (1975) "Financing Coal Gasification
Projects," in Clean Fuels from Coal Symposium II Papers,
sponsored by Institute of Gas Technology. Illinois Institute
of Technology, June 23-27, pp. 853-860; and Rocky Mountain
Institute for Policy Research (1975) Financing Infrastructure
in Energy Development Areas in the West. Snowbird, Utah:
Rocky Mountain Institute for Policy Research.
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3-5
Reclamation of strip mined lands.
Alteration of life-styles, particularly for
traditional cultures in sparsely populated
areas and on Indian reservations.
Displacement of present land users, for example,
agricultural and recreational users.
These and other problems that are already being discussed
in connection with western energy development will be identified
in the regional overview. This context setting overview
description will be used, as the first chapter, to introduce the
TA in the first year report.
3.4 SCENARIOS
3.4.1 Scenario Introduction
Scenarios are postulated courses of action or events. In
this TA, they postulate hypothetical patterns of energy development
in the western U.S. from the present to 1980, 1990, and 2000;
and they provide the basis for assessing the likely consequences
of western energy development. Although the scenario locations
are those where energy developments have in some cases been
announced, the scenarios are hypothetical, and are not intended
to be a substitute for an environmental impact statement (EIS).
National Academy of Sciences (1974) Rehab i1itat ion
Potential of Western Coal Lands, a report to the Energy Policy
Project of the Ford Foundation. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger
Publishing Company.
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3-6
Their purpose is to: (1) provide a vehicle for the analysis of
impacts and policies concerning a variety of western energy
resource developments; and (2) provide a basis for generalizations
about the consequences of various patterns, rates, and levels of
development.
As configured here, scenarios are intended to:
1. establish research boundaries for the TA
compatible with available research resources;
2. identify particular combinations of technologies
and locations at which these technologies might
be deployed;
3. identify baseline conditions to which changes
due to energy resource development can be
compared when impacts are assessed; and
4. set a context for the analysis of problems
and issues which arise as a consequence of
development.
These four purposes are closely related. The first purpose
must be achieved since it is clearly impossible to assess every
conceivable energy development which might occur within the
western region. Consequently, it is important to choose very
carefully from among possible energy developments. The second
purpose, the identification of technologies and locations, is
required so that inputs and outputs that will interact with
existing conditions to provide impacts can be identified and
described. The third purpose, identifying baseline conditions
at particular locations, is necessary to permit comparisons and
an evaluation of changes that will result from the energy
-------
3-7
developments proposed in the scenarios. The fourth purpose,
providing a context for the identification of problems, is a
necessary prerequisite to the policy analysis conducted in the
Integrative Phase of the TA. The scenarios have been constructed
to expose a range of problems. They provide a basis for examining
a range of substantive public policy issues and the role of a
wide range of parties-at-interest such as governments, Indians,
energy companies, environmentalists, ranchers, and farmers.
To meet the requirement of addressing a broad range of
impacts, problems, and issues during the first year of this TA,
two types of scenarios will be utilized: site specific and
aggregated. Site-specific scenarios allow the assessment of the
development of one or more energy resources at a particular site
using a particular combination of technologies over the time
period covered by this study, 1975 to 2000. The six site-specific
scenarios to be analyzed during the first year are intended to
provide a basis for assessing impacts and identifying problems
and issues that are likely to arise at local levels or that are
associated with specific processes or technologies.
The aggregated scenarios are designed to provide a mechanism
for examining problems and issues of regional significance.
Three aggregated scenarios will be analyzed during the first
year: the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB); the Upper Missouri
River Basin (UMRB); and an eight state area made up of Montana,
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3-8
North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Arizona,
and New Mexico.
Since it is not possible to predict the course of future
events •with certainty, the scenarios are hypothetical. They
represent plausible future developments and have been selected
by the Science and Public Policy Program (S&PP)-Radian research
team as vehicles for highlighting a broad range of policy issues
likely to arise with the development of western energy resources.
If the results of the first year TA demonstrate that additional
scenarios are needed to enrich the assessment, particularly the
range of impacts and problems to be analyzed, additional scenarios
will be added for the second and third years.
While selecting a base case is always somewhat arbitrary,
1975 is the reference point that will be used in determining
changes in existing conditions occurring at the sites and in the
areas specified in the scenarios. In some cases, 1975 data may
not be available, thereby necessitating extrapolation or the
designation of another base year. The impact analyses will be
structured so that impacts can be evaluated for alternative base
cases, including the possibility of looking retrospectively at
years prior to 1975.
In the following two sections, the six site-specific and
three aggregated scenarios will be described. These include a
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3-9
discussion of how the scenarios were developed and a brief
description of the scenarios themselves.
3.4.2 The Construction of Site-Specific Scenarios
As noted earlier, each site-specific scenario provides for
the assessment of the development of one or more energy resources
at a particular site using a particular combination of technologies
The assessment emphasizes two phases, construction and operation,
but takes a third, termination or shutdown, into account.
Three time periods are analyzed: present to 1980, 1990, and
2000. Levels of development are hypothetical. For the period
from the present to 1980, these hypothetical developments are
2
based on present developments and those that have been announced;
for the two later time periods, development levels are based on
the quantities of energy expected to be produced in the western
U.S. during those time frames, the resources located at the
Thirty years is the assumed operational lifetime of
facilities. Construction is assumed to take from three to eight
years; and facilities are not expected to produce at the levels
specified at the outset. That is, start-time requirements are
taken into account.
2
Recent events such as the court's decision in Sierra Club
vs. Morton, the fate of the synthetic fuels commercialization
program, and President Ford's veto of the strip mining bill
illustrate how uncertain forecasts of future developments can be
This only emphasizes that while these scenario developments may
now seem plausible, they are hypothetical.
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3-10
specific sites being assessed, and the technologies expected to
be available.
The procedural steps used to identify and construct the
site-specific scenarios include the following:
1. A series of regional overlays were prepared
which identified locations of:
a. each of the six resources;
b. existing, planned, and proposed energy
developments;
c. state, county, and reservation boundaries;
and
d. river basins and subbasins.
2. Specific sites and areas within these patterns
of probable development were then examined to
take into account such factors as topography,
climatology, geology, hydrology, soils, plant
and animal communities, and demography. Sites
and areas were identified which appear to be
either:
a. generally representative of a class of
sites and/or areas within the region; or
b. unique sites with particular characteristics
which would not be covered in the
representative class, but might give
rise to important problems or issues.
See Section 3.4.4 for a discussion of the energy development
levels anticipated for the western region.
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3. Socioeconomic and political criteria of
representativeness or uniqueness were also
taken into account, including seeking
answers to such questions as:
a. Will more than one state be impacted by
development of this site or this area?
(For example, will the development area
cover parts of more than one state?
Will the energy development take place
in one state and most or many of the
physical and socioeconomic impacts be
borne by an adjacent state?)
b. Who owns the surface and mineral rights?
c. Will an Indian reservation either be the
site of or be impacted by the development?
d. Will a new community be required?
e. What size communities will be impacted
by the development?
f. Are the required baseline data available?
On the basis of the steps above, six specific sites were
selected for analysis. They are shown on the map, Figure 3-1.
The temporal and spatial extent of impacts can vary. For example,
the most severe impacts of primary air pollutants on ambient air
quality is, in most cases, confined to a region within about 30
miles of a facility. On the other hand, socioeconomic and
ecological impacts can occur at much greater distances from the
facility. Water quality and quantity impacts may require
Secondary air quality impacts such as photochemical oxidant
and sulfate formation can occur at greater distances from a
source. A portion of the analysis conducted in this TA will
address the question of the spatial extent of the secondary
air pollution problem.
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3-12
K\N UPPER MISSOURI RIVER BASIN
UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
Figure 3-1: Site-Specific and Aggregated Scenarios
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3-13
consideration of entire drainage basins. In constructing the
site-specific scenarios, these differences were taken into
account by determining the spatial extent of the impacts and
establishing the geographic areas required for the various
portions of the impact analysis in each scenario.
Technological alternatives were selected on the basis of
their likelihood or availability for deployment on a commercial
scale within the time frame of the study. Data accessibility
and reliability were also considered. Production levels for
individual mines, processing, conversion, and transportation
facilities were based on what is typical or what has been
announced.
Coal and oil shale conversion technologies chosen for the
first year site-specific analyses include TOSCO oil shale
processing, Lurgi coal gasification, Synthane coal gasification,
and Synthoil coal liquefaction. TOSCO has been under intensive
development for some 20 years, and some impact data have been
made publicly available. The Lurgi process is commercial, data
are available, and announced plans call for it to be deployed
in the western region. Moreover, some residuals data for Lurgi
have been publicly reported.
Synthane is a second generation gasification technology.
Since it is being developed by the Energy Research and Development
T'he Oil Shale Corporation.
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3-14
Administration (ERDA), data are publicly available; and preliminary
residuals data are currently available from small-scale facilities.
Synthoil is the liquefaction technology chosen to contrast
with gasification. Although not quite as advanced in its
development as some of the alternative liquefaction technologies,
Synthoil is also being developed by ERDA, and the preliminary
environmental data now available are in the public domain. In
addition, Synthoil produces primarily liquid products rather
than combinations of liquid and gas products. Data on most of
the more advanced processes, such as COALCON, are proprietary.
This was an important factor in the decision to select Synthoil
as the liquefaction technology to be included in our scenarios.
One final point needs to be made concerning the scenarios
to be analyzed. In postulating energy developments into the
future, such state of society changes as possible shifts in
societal values, changes in life-styles, and changes in the
composition of the national work force (for example, the entry
of more women) will be considered. To do this, we will use the
procedural approach described in the discussion of policy
analysis in Chapter 5. No attempt has been made to project
state of society changes in the brief scenario descriptions
presented in this chapter.
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3-15
3.4.3 A Brief Description of the Site-Specific Scenarios
In this subsection, the site-specific scenarios to be assessed
in the first year are described. Detailed data required for each
of the facilities and areas included in the scenarios are being
collected. As indicated in the conceptual framework discussion,
a first-cut analysis is being used in an attempt to limit
collection and codification to only those data actually required
to assess impacts and analyze policy alternatives.
The six site-specific scenarios are:
A. Kaiparowits/Escalante; The Kaiparowits Plateau is
located in Kane and Garfield counties in southern
Utah. Large quantities of low-sulfur bituminous
coal suitable for deep (underground) mining are
located here. The plateau is very sparsely
populated and is bounded by Glen Canyon National
Recreational Area to the southeast, and Bryce
Canyon National Park to the west, with a number
of national forests and other parks within a 100
mile radius. Lake Powell, a reservoir in Glen
Canyon on the Colorado River, may be considered
as a water resource for energy facilities. Roads
are very limited and there is no rail transportation.
Land in the area is predominantly owned by the
federal government (about 87 percent) with the
remainder divided between state and private
ownership. The nearest population center is
Page, Arizona which has a population of between
7,000 and 8,000 people.1
A draft environmental impact statement has been issued for
a coal-fired power plant at Kaiparowits. This statement will
provide data and a basis for comparisons. See Department of the
Interior, Bureau of Land Management (1975) Draft Environmental
Impact Statement, Kaiparowits Project.
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The issues which were considered in selecting the
Kaiparowits/Escalante scenario include the following:
1. The use of underground mining on an arid
plateau will raise reclamation issues,
particularly with regard to subsidence and
impact on groundwater aquifers.
2. The topography of the plateau and surrounding
mountains makes prediction of air pollutant
dispersion very uncertain, and consequently
the adequacy of control techniques will be
an issue.
3. The coal is a low-sulfur bituminous which
should allow impacts from its use to be
contrasted with those of poorer quality
coals elsewhere in the West.
4. The use of the Colorado River as a water
source and sink will affect and be affected
by legal restrictions on water rights, and
by water availability.
5. Socioeconomic impacts are potentially
severe, due to the sparse population and
lack of developed governmental services.
This will create problems for local and
state governments and the developers.
6. The proximity of the developments to
national parks and other recreational
areas will give rise to land use, air
quality, and aesthetic issues. The
significant deterioration of air quality
is an issue at this site.
The energy developments postulated at Kaiparowits/Escalante
for our scenario are shown in Table 3-1.
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3-18
B. Navajo (Farmington, New Mexico): The city of
Farmington is about 50 miles southeast of Four
Corners, and just east of the Navajo reservation.
It has a population of about 22,000 people, which
is about one-half the population of the county.
Thirty-five percent of the county population is
Indian, and 60 percent of the county land is
Navajo Indian reservation. Utilities—the
Four Corners power plants--and oil and gas
developments are the major employers in the
area. The land is flat and semi-arid, with
only six to eight inches of rainfall annually.
The issues which were considered in selecting
the Navajo scenario include the following:
1. The air in the area is naturally clear.
However, air pollutant dispersion potential
in the area is poor, making air quality and
visibility issues for future energy
developments.
2. Impacts to the Navajo reservation will be
in many forms. Mineral and water rights
are held by Indians and questions of water
availability and fair value for resources
will be issues. There will also be
socioeconomic impacts on the Indian
population which will generate issues.
3. Different transportation and processing
technologies used for the postulated energy
developments can be compared and may raise
technological issues.
The energy developments postulated at the Navajo
location for our scenario are indicated in Table 3-2
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3-20
C. Rifle, Colorado; Rifle is on the eastern edge
of the high grade, Piceance Creek oil shale
resource basin and has a population of about
2,000 people. The terrain is rugged and
mountainous. Extreme temperatures are
experienced in the canyons and temperature
inversions are common. Oil shale development
has been promised to Rifle in various forms
for the past 50 years, and residents today
are skeptical about whether it will ever
happen.
This issues which were considered in selecting
the Rifle scenario include the following:
1. Oil shale is the primary resource in this
area, and its development will raise
issues of technological adequacy and
reclamation, particularly reclamation
effects on surface and groundwater
quality.
2. Because of the likelihood of temperature
inversions, air pollution will be an
issue.
3. State regulations for Colorado studied
in this scenario can be compared to
those of other states in other scenarios.
The energy developments postulated at Rifle
for our scenario are indicated in Table 3-3.
D. Gillette, Wyoming: Gillette is a town of about
10,000 inhabitants which has already experienced
a boom because of energy developments. The
population has doubled in the last 10 years,
and further energy developments are anticipated
which will contribute to continued growth.
The issues which were considered in selecting
the Gillette scenario include the following:
1. The coal in the Powder River Basin is lower
in quality than that at Farmington or
Kaiparowits, but higher than lignite, and
this scenario should provide a comparison
of impacts from this coal with those of
higher and lower quality.
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3-22
2. A number of technologies can be contrasted
at Gillette, and comparisons may expose
problems or issues related to technological
adequacy.
3. Socioeconomic impacts of rapid growth due
to energy developments will be severe and
will generate problems in adequacy of
government services and other compensatory
mechanisms.
4. Anticipated development is very large and
will provide a basis for analysis of
large-scale impacts.
The energy developments postulated at Gillette
for our scenario are indicated in Table 3-4.
Colstrip, Montana: Colstrip is located in the
Powder River Basin in southeastern Montana, about
30 miles south of the town of Forsyth. Colstrip
is an unincorporated community of about 2,500
people, with most of its present population having
arrived in the last three years to work on a large
power plant project. Colstrip is just north of
the Northern Cheyenne Indian reservation and
northeast of the Crow Indian reservation. Roads
in the area are limited, and mostly dirt or
gravel, but a rail spur extends to Colstrip
from Forsyth. In much of the area around
Colstrip, surface ownership is private, devoted
to ranching or agriculture, but mineral rights
are federally owned.
The issues which were considered in selecting the
Colstrip scenario include the following:
1. Resource ownership in the area is diverse,
and the issue of surface versus mineral
rights will be evident here.
2. Contrasting gasification technologies and
their impacts can be compared.
3. Air pollutant dispersion can be contrasted
with that from similar facilities in New
Mexico to explore air quality issues.
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3-24
4. Montana state policies regarding energy
resource extraction will be an issue—for
example, severance tax and water allocation
policies.
The energy developments postulated for the Colstrip
scenario are indicated in Table 3-5.
F. Beulah, North Dakota; Beulah is a town of 1,300
people located in western North Dakota in the
Fort Union lignite coal field. It is about 65
miles northwest of Bismarck, and much of the
work force for energy developments at Beulah
is likely to commute from the Bismarck area.
Water resources for energy developments will
probably come from the Lake Sakakawea reservoir,
much of which is within the Fort Berthold
Indian reservation.
The issues which were considered in selecting
the Beulah scenario include the following:
1. Use of the low-sulfur, lower heating value
lignite resource can be contrasted in
impacts with the use of higher heating
value coals elsewhere in the West.
2. The area is sparsely populated with a
predominantly agricultural economy so
that the new, large energy industry will
produce socioeconomic disruptions and
issues.
3. Bismarck may sustain substantial costs due
to labor force population, but will not have
the facility available for tax base, thus
raising a cost/benefit distribution issue.
The energy developments postulated at Beulah
for our scenario are indicated in Table 3-6.
A summary of the site-specific scenario technologies and
their timing is shown in Table 3-7.
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3.4.4 Aggregate Scenario Development
As discussed in the scenario introduction, the aggregate
scenarios will be used as a mechanism for examining issues and
problems which are related to energy development in the West
and which require a different basis for analysis than the
site-specific scenarios. Two types of aggregate scenarios will
be used: the regional scenario and the river basin scenarios.
Geographically, the regional scenario includes eight western
states (Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado,
Utah, Mexico, Arizona) and provides a mechanism for investigating
national energy demand projections and the resulting demands on
the western energy resources. The river basin scenarios (Upper
Colorado, Upper Missouri) will be used to further disaggregate
energy demand projections and apply this demand to a smaller
geographic unit. The analysis of the regional and river basin
scenarios will include the impact categories considered in the
TA. Within the river basin scenarios, the Powder River Hydrologic
Basin and the Green River Geologic Basin will be highlighted.
They are not scenarios because they will not be investigated by
all disciplines but rather will be used only to address some
specific impacts of intermediate geographical extent. The
relations among the site-specific, river basin, and regional
scenarios are indicated in Figure 3-2.
-------
3-29
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The aggregate scenarios are developed by linking national
demand projections and the resulting demands on the western energy
resources. The relationship between national energy demand and
western energy resources can be meaningfully developed only in
the context of the entire U.S. energy system. More correctly,
it should be analyzed in the context of the entire world's energy
system insofar as it impacts the U.S.
Several energy supply models have been developed as tools
for the analysis of the complex energy structure of the U.S.
A preliminary survey indicated that five models appeared to be
potentially useful in the development of the aggregate scenarios
for this TA .
A more detailed analysis of the results of these five models
was then performed. This analysis indicated that the Stanford
Research Institute (SRI) model is the only one of the five which,
in its present state of development, is capable of assisting in
These models were developed by Stanford Research Institute
(Cazalet, Edward G. [1975] A Western Regional Energy Study:
Economics, Discussion Draft. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford
Research Institute), Federal Energy Administration (Federal
Energy Administration [November 1974] Project Independence Report.
Washington: Government Printing Office), Brookhaven National
Laboratory (Brookhaven National Laboratory, Associated Universities,
Inc., Energy/Environmental Data Group [1975] Energy Model Data
Base User Manual, BNL 19200), The Bechtel Corporation (Carasso, M.,
J. M. Gallagher, K. J. Sharma, J. R. Gayle, and R. Barany
[August 1975] The Energy Supply Planning Model. San Francisco:
Bechtel Corporation), and Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories
(Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories [July 1975] Regional
Analysis of the U.S. Electric Power Industry. Seattle: Battelle
Pacific Northwest Laboratories, vols. 1-6).
-------
3-31
the development of the aggregate scenarios for the first year TA.
The other models referred to above are either too limited in
scope, not applicable to the time frame of interest, 1975 to
2000, or insufficiently disaggregated.
Bechtel's energy planning model gives construction schedules,
time, capital, manpower and materials requirements for exogenous
energy development scenarios. It is, therefore, not useful for
regional scenario definition, but it should be useful for scenario
analysis as a source of data for facility construction requirements
and schedules. The Brookhaven model considers the U.S. as a
whole. This complete lack of disaggregation renders the model
unsuitable for aggregate scenario definition. The Federal Energy
Administration's (FEA) PIES model primarily focuses on the time
frame, present to 1985. Since it only spans approximately half
of the time frame of interest to this study, it is not currently
useful for aggregate scenario development. Finally, the Battelle
model addresses only the electric utility industry and is,
therefore, not applicable to our regional scenario development.
SRI's model covers all major energy forms, conversion
technologies, transportation modes, demand sectors, and U.S.
geographical regions. It explicitly models supply elasticity,
interfuel competition, and end-use demands and treats energy
market dynamics such as investment, financing, technological
change, demand growth, and resource depletion.
Project Independence Environmental Statement.
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3-32
Demand for usable energy is exogenously specified. The SRI
analysis cited considers three demand projections.
It considers a high- and a low-demand case corresponding to the
Ford Foundation Energy Policy Study's historical growth and
technical fix scenarios, respectively. The historical growth
case examines the consequence of continuing an average growth
rate of 3.5 percent per year. The technical fix case is an
attempt to anticipate the results of a variety of voluntary and
mandatory energy conservation measures. The third case is 30
percent of the way between the low-demand case and a high-demand
case and is termed the nominal case.
Other important features of the SRI study are that:
1. It spans the time period 1975 to 2025 in a
continuous manner.
2. The model considers the world energy situation,
at least to a limited extent. (Import prices
are exogenously specified.)
One of the important limitations of the SRI model is that
it is not sufficiently disaggregated for the purposes of this TA
and further disaggregation will have to be superimposed on the
model results to develop the aggregate scenarios. This further
disaggregation will be based on announced developments, and on
an analysis of the geographical distribution of economically
recoverable reserves of each resource.
Based on Ford Foundation (1974) A Time to Choose; America's
Energy Future. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger Publishing Company.
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3-33
Some important assumptions that may affect the credibility
of the results obtained using the model are:
1. The model assumes that all western coal is
low-sulfur coal and will not require scrubbers
when it is burned to generate electricity. All
eastern coal is assumed to be high-sulfur coal
requiring scrubbers for its use.
2. An amount of water is assumed to be available
if required.
3. The level of nuclear electric power generation
appears to be unreasonably high—54 percent of
the nation's electricity will be nuclear
generated by the year 2000.
Nevertheless, the SRI model gives the best available
projection of energy demands for the western states for the first
year TA. Other aggregate scenarios which reflect the alteration
of some of these assumptions can be considered in technology
assessments for subsequent years.
3.4.5 Description of the Aggregated Scenarios
In this subsection, the three aggregated scenarios to be
assessed in the first year are described. This description
includes the geographical extent of the scenarios and the
significant problems and issues considered in their selection.
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3-34
Western States (Regional Scenario)
The regional scenario will include the eight western states
of North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado,
New Mexico, and Arizona. All of the site-specific and river
basin scenarios will be contained within this analysis. This
eight-state region contains large quantities of the six energy
resources being considered. Some of the principal issues that
will be addressed in this scenario include:
1. The availability of existing transportation
networks to meet the greatly increased demands
for transportation of coal, gas, oil, and
power;
2. The availability of the capital that will be
required, both for energy and social infrastructure
development;
3. The availability of labor sufficient both in
number and skill to build the required
facilities and to provide for the associated
service needs caused by labor migrations; and
4. The availability of the required materials and
supplies that will be needed for western energy
resource development.
Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB) Scenario
The UMRB aggregated region contains parts of Montana,
Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota. This area includes the
site-specific scenarios at Colstrip, Montana; Gillette, Wyoming;
and Beulah, North Dakota; as well as the aggregated Powder River
Resource Region. The UMRB is an area where very extensive energy
development is projected. Some issues that can be addressed at
-------
3-35
this larger scale that are not apparent at a smaller scale
are:
1. The increased use of water will decrease the
available supply used for instream needs such
as navigation. A significant part of the
nation's wheat harvest is transported by
Missouri River barges and a decrease in the
navigation season could be of national
importance.
2. The widespread effects on wildlife habitat
and recreational lands identified in the
Powder River aggregate and the possible
growth in agricultural land use could be
addressed at this level.
3. The alternatives for water supply to the
Powder River resource region include
aqueducts from major downstream reservoirs
which run through South Dakota. This
aggregate would allow an investigation of
the impact of that water supply alternative
on ecological, agricultural, social,
financial, and municipal structures.
As part of the UMRB scenario, the Powder River Basin will
be studied in a limited analysis. This aggregate will include
the Colstrip, Montana and Gillette, Wyoming site-specific
scenarios as they are located within the larger boundaries of
the resource region. The aggregate region includes parts of
eastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming. The boundaries of the
Powder River resource region are not specifically defined, but
include the general area of the hydrologic basin of the Powder
River and the associated portions of the Fort Union coal beds.
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3-36
Some of the issues that can be addressed at this aggregate level
that are not apparent at the site-specific level are:
• 1. The cumulative effect of multiple water withdrawals
for industry, municipal, and agricultural users
on streamflow and water quality.
2. The need for an extensive water transport system
within the region to supply water users.
3. The identification of recreational needs that
will have a widespread effect on the region
and more specifically the Bighorn National
Forest and Black Hills.
4. The socioeconomic effects caused by the cumulative
impact of regional growth, for example, in Sheridan,
Wyoming and on Indian tribes.
Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) Scenario
The UCRB aggregated region includes parts of Wyoming, Utah,
Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona and includes that part of the
Colorado River Drainage Basin above Lees Ferry, Arizona. The
site-specific scenarios at Rifle, Colorado; Kaiparowits/Escalante,
Utah; and Farmington (Navajo), New Mexico, as well as the Green
River resource region aggregate are within the area included in
this analysis. The principal issues within this aggregate
analysis include:
1. Reduced water availability in light of the
reallocation of Upper Colorado River Compact
waters as a result of recent statistical
analyses that have revised the estimate of
total available flow in the basin.
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3-37
2. The problems associated with increased salinity
caused by water withdrawals, return flows, and
natural geologic conditions.
3. The development of water quality restrictions
to the provisions of the Mexico Treaty.
4. The social, cultural, political, and economic
impacts on Indians.
5. The impacts on air quality.
The Green River resource region will be analyzed on a
restricted basis for water quality and ecological impacts. it
includes the Rifle, Colorado site-specific scenario and both the
Uinta and Piceance Creek Resource Basins within the Green River
oil shale formation. This area contains both coal and oil shale
resources and is a prime candidate for oil shale development.
The specific issues that are unique to this area include:
1. The increased salinity in Upper Colorado River
water at downstream locations caused by the
removal of higher quality water from the
hydrologic system.
2. The cumulative effect of increased recreational
use and widespread human activity on wildlife
resources, including the largest resident deer
herd in the surrounding three-state area.
3. The wilderness areas of the White River National
Forest region will be receiving greatly increased
recreational pressure. These extremely high
quality wilderness areas are very fragile and
could be jeopardized by heavy use.
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CHAPTER 4
THE INTERACTIVE PHASE: IMPACT ANALYSIS
4.1 INTRODUCTION
A primary purpose of technology assessments (TA) is to
prevent or at least minimize the surprises that could occur when
a technology is introduced, extended, or modified. Therefore, an
analysis of impacts is essential to identify unanticipated impacts
It is also important to establish the magnitude of impacts, both
those that have been identified or anticipated prior to and
determined by the TA. Both categories of impacts need to be
evaluated and compared to provide a basis for understanding costs
and benefits. In short, impact analyses are intended to produce
results which lead to the identification of problems and which
tell policymakers what costs and benefits are likely to occur
when they decide to deploy a particular technology. As noted in
the conceptual framework discussion (and elaborated in Chapter 5),
technical impact analyses, by themselves, do not provide an
adequate knowledge base for making public policy. In part, this
is because of the inadequacy of the best of these analyses and
the tools used to conduct them; but it is also the case because
of what these analyses leave out, the kinds of interest and value
4-1
-------
4-2
conflicts which policymakers have to attempt to reconcile. In
this chapter, the emphasis is on the technical analyses that will
be conducted as an essential part of this TA. But these technical
analyses are not an end in themselves; they are undertaken because
the results they are expected to produce will help the Science
and Public Policy (S&PP)-Radian team identify and analyze the
policy problems and issues likely to arise in the development of
western energy resources.
As indicated in the conceptual framework description, impact
analyses are divided conceptually into two levels: the initial
changes in existing conditions which occur when a technology is
deployed; and the higher order consequences which result from
these initial changes. Both levels of analysis are provided for
in the procedures described in this chapter.
The methods and procedures for impact analysis are described
in the sections which follow, beginning with impacts on physical
receptors. Other sections focus on: resource availability; social,
economic, and political impacts; ecological impacts; health; and
aesthetics. Each of these sections generally includes: (1) an
introduction of the significance of the analysis to policy
development; (2) an identification of baseline data requirements;
(3) a description of applicable models or analytical techniques;
(4) a brief description of anticipated results; and (5) a
description of data availability and the adequacy of existing
-------
4-3
research to support impact analyses required to support this TA.
A final section of this chapter describes how these analyses will
be brought together for use in policy analysis.
These categories appear to be sufficiently comprehensive to
insure that a broad range of impacts will be identified and
analyzed. However, the S&PP-Radian team is aware that some
impacts might "fall through the cracks." One of the most
important features of the interdisciplinary team approach and its
associated external reviews is that it minimizes this possibility.
This approach and the procedures for implementing it are described
in Chapter 5.
4.2 PHYSICAL IMPACTS
The impact analysis procedures described in this section
deal with changes in air and water quality, land form and quality,
and noise levels. Changes in air and water quality due to both
point and area sources of residuals from both energy facilities
and their associated secondary developments are addressed.
Changes in land forms deal primarily with solid waste management
and reclamation. The section on noise focuses primarily on
exposures from facilities and their associated activities, for
example, from such activities as plant operation, blasting, and
truck or rail transportation.
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4-4
4.2.1 Air Quality
A. Introduction
Air quality impacts are to receive major attention. The
results of these analyses are expected to provide data needed
for other impact analyses, including ecosystem, socioeconomic,
health effects, and aesthetic as well as policy analysis. Changes
in air quality create problems and give rise to issues regarding
the revision of emission and ambient air quality standards for
criteria pollutants--and possible other pollutants in the future.
A major issue, for example, concerns the development of regulations
that would prevent significant air quality deterioration in such
areas as national parks, forests, and recreation areas. The
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) must deal with this issue
as a result of a June, 1973 Supreme Court decision, and Congress
is considering legislation that deals directly with the significant
deterioration issue. The House and the Senate have each developed
plans that define significant deterioration. These differ from
"each other in several respects; and both differ from the current
EPA plan. Some version of these three different plans is expec
to be enacted by congress this term. If so, significant
Environmental Protection Agency and Federal Energy
Administration (1975) An Analysis of the Impact on the Electric
Industry of Alternative Approaches to Significant Deterioration.
Washington: Federal Energy Administration.
-------
4-5
deterioration regulations can be more accurately assessed. For
this first year TA, then, the effects of all three plans must be
considered separately and the results interpreted accordingly.
An example of the limitations that may be imposed on western
energy development is contained in the joint analysis performed
by EPA and the Federal Energy Administration (FEA) on the impact
of proposed significant deterioration plans on electric utilities.
The results indicate that under the House significant deterioration
approach, up to 91 percent of the land area in the West might not
be available for the siting of a 1,000 megawatt (Mw) coal-fired
power plant with emissions meeting EPA new source performance
standards. The primary reason for this is that buffer zones must
exist around Class I areas (areas of minimum allowable air quality
degradation) so that pollutants are not transported by winds into
the Class I areas. While it is possible to greatly reduce the
size of the buffer zones for individual power plants by using
better emission controls, it is apparent that extensive development
will cause problems.
These and other air quality issues are intimately related to
policies that affect facility siting, levels of development, and
Environmental Protection Agency and Federal Energy
Administration (1975) An Analysis of the Impact on the Electric
Industry of Alternative Approaches to Significant Deterioration.
Washington: Federal Energy Administration.
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4-6
requirements for specific environmental control items such as
scrubbers or precipitators.
Significant variables to be addressed in air quality impact
analysis are listed below:
1. A variety of meteorological conditions and stresses
a. Worst case conditions
b. Short- and long-term average conditions
c. Meteorological stresses
2. Ambient concentrations of criteria pollutants
a. Sulfur oxides
b. Nitrogen oxides
c. Carbon monoxide
d. Hydrocarbons
e. Particulates
3. Fugitive emissions from facilities
4. Salt rainout from cooling towers
*
5. Sulfates and nitrates and oxidants
6. Fine particulates, plume opacity, and long-range
visibility*
7. Organic chemicals and trace element occurrence
*
8. Potential for weather modification
The assessment of several of these impacts will be primarily
quantitative, including quantities of stack emissions, cooling
tower drift, and fugitive emissions for each appropriate scenario.
More descriptive analyses provide for assessment of changes in
larger geographic areas, long-range visibility, the formation of
secondary pollutants, and other factors.
Asterisk indicates that the analysis will be primarily
qualitative.
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4-7
B. Baseline Data
Data requirements for air quality impact analysis fall
generally into two categories: meteorological information for
the site or areas included in the scenario under consideration,
including existing air quality data, and data on the technologies,
including such factors as rates of emission and stack parameters.
In many instances, these data are derived from sources through a
number of calculations or analyses. Where appropriate, these
are described below. Only general data requirements are described
in this section, primarily as they apply to dispersion modeling
of criteria pollutants. It should be recognized, however, that
data requirements change or are modified for particular scenarios
or specific modeling techniques, and that new data requirements
will be identified as the TA progresses.
The initial survey of climatological data will include the
processing of climatological tapes from the National Climatic
Center, the investigation of topographical maps of the areas to
be studied, and the collection of meteorological data describing
the pollution potential of the western U.S. These include:
1. Ambient temperature and pressure
2. Mixing depths
3. Wind statistics
4. Inversion frequencies
5. Air stability classes—distribution and
frequencies
6. Ventilation values
7. Precipitation frequencies
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4-8
The tapes will provide frequency distributions of wind
direction and wind speed as functions of the air stability
classes, over a period of about five consecutive years. The
most applicable source of meteorological data will be chosen for
each scenario site to be studied. The topography of each site
will be studied in detail so that the small- and medium-scale
meteorological effects which prevail in the regions of interest
may be ascertained. The topographical maps- will be obtained
from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) with a map scale of
1:24,000.
Using the inputs described above, conditions leading to
the appropriate worst-case pollution potential on a 24-hour
and other time frame basis can be hypothesized. Meteorological
data will also provide a basis for both qualitatively and
quantitatively describing the potential for dispersal of
pollutants at each area of interest, including seasonal and
annual statistics on mixing depths, transport wind speeds,
inversion frequencies, Pasquill stability class distributions,
precipitation frequencies, and other pertinent factors.
These individual medium-scale climatological assessments
will be supported by a thorough discussion of the large-scale
circulation patterns which affect the western U.S. This
-------
4-9
discussion will examine relationships between the upper-level
circulation and boundary layer dispersion and seasonal and annual
irregularities in the synoptic-scale flow. The effects of
anabatic and katabatic circulations on dispersion in topographically
favorable regions of the country will be addressed. These data
will be used in a description of areas with exceptionally high or
low dispersion potential throughout the western U.S.
Further research will be needed to specify the frequency of
occurrence and severity of those meteorological events which may
have a catastrophic effect on the regions of interest. Specifically,
the phenomena which will be investigated will include major winds
and storms which can cause flooding or damage. These data will
facilitate engineering evaluations of the possible damage or
destruction of facilities involved in this study.
The technological data requirements for dispersion modeling
are stack parameters, pollutant emission rates, and other similar
data appropriate for particular modes as listed below:
1. Stack height
2. Stack exit diameter
3. Stack location
4. Stack exit temperature
5. Stack exit velocity or flow rate
6. Pollutant emission rates
-------
4-10
To be able to predict overall ambient air quality levels,
it will be necessary to acquire data on the currently existing
air quality in the locations of interest. These data are in the
form of measurements of ambient concentrations of pollutants
averaged over various lengths of time. Data sources include
state agencies, regional offices of EPA, environmental statements,
companies participating in the development of the region, and,
when checked for appropriate quality control, the National
Aerometric Data Base at Research Triangle Park.
C. Methods and Procedures
The analysis of air quality impacts will be conducted at
two levels. First, ambient air concentrations of criteria
pollutants for the scenarios will be computed, including
sensitivity analyses relative to alternative control strategies;
and, second, potential problems arising from a variety of other
pollutants, including such parameters as sulfates, fine
particulates, and trace elements and chemicals will be described.
Included in the first level analysis described below are the
predictions for each site-specific scenario of the ambient air
concentrations of the pollutants sulfur dioxide (SCO, nitrogen
oxide (NO ), carbon monoxide (CO), nonmethane hydrocarbons,
X
particulates, cooling tower drift deposition, and, for the
regional scenarios, predictions of total emissions of the above
-------
4-11
pollutants. Ambient air concentrations will be computed for
a number of averaging times that may be useful for impact
analysis—such as longer times for health effects doses. Peak
concentration values will be computed in some cases for comparisons,
since many of the standards apply to the peak values. Additional
concentration values will be computed as required to assess levels
over populated areas, typical levels, and for other purposes.
1. Dispersion Models
During the first year, atmospheric dispersion models will be
used to compute the levels of airborne pollutants for the variety
of terrain configurations, meteorological regimes, and source
conditions encountered in the site-specific scenarios. Emission
sources in this assessment effort fall into two basic categories:
elevated point source releases; and low-level, area-wide
releases of fugitive emissions. Appropriate dispersion model
treatments have been selected for each of these emission source
categories.
Examination of the terrain and meteorological regimes of the
proposed site areas indicate that the following terrain-induced
problems may be encountered in the modeling effort:
1. Influence of upward and downward sloping terrain
on effluent transport
2. Deposition of airborne effluents on elevated
terrain
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4-12
3. Flow of airborne effluents over or around
elongated ridges
4. Capture and channeling of low-level releases
in valley drainage flow regimes
Two basic types of dispersion models were considered for use
in the first year TA in response to these terrain factors:
finite difference type models (sometimes called grid models)
and Gaussian models modified to incorporate terrain effects.
Finite difference models, such as the APDIC model developed
2
at Lawrence Livermore Laboratories, incorporate terrain effects
by means of a terrain-compatible wind field (a complex,
three-dimensional wind direction and speed definition).
Definition of the wind flow field is accomplished by extrapolating
measured wind data taken in the immediate vicinity of the site.
This type of model requires numerous grid points which greatly
increases the computer time required for each run. These models
also need detailed wind field information.
The terrain-dependent Gaussian models are less accurate, but
require much less computer time. Also, this type of model does
not require the input of detailed terrain-compatible wind fields.
Since the scope of this study is very broad (requiring the
Turner, D.B. (1970) Workbook of Atmospheric Dispersion
Estimate_s, Public Health Service Publication No. 999-AP-26.
2
Lange, Rolf (October 1973) ADPIC, A Three Dimensional
Computer Code for the Study of Pollutant Dispersal and Deposition
under Complex Conditions. Livermore, Calif.: University of
California, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory.
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4-13
dispersion modeling of 27 separate facilities) and the wind data
required to generate detailed terrain compatible wind fields are
not available, the terrain-dependent Gaussian type of model, a
model commonly used in other studies in complex terrain, will be
used.
Several models of this type have been examined to select the
specific terrain treatment for use in the first year TA. The
models considered are:
1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) Model; During unstable and neutral conditions,
the plume centerline is assumed to remain at a fixed
height above the terrain. During stable conditions,
the plume centerline is assumed to remain at a fixed
height above the source. Application of this terrain
treatment for periods of stable conditions results in
the prediction of direct centerline impaction of the
plume against terrain of height equal to, or greater
than, that of the plume centerline.1
2. Model C7M3D (also called C9M3D); The terrain treatment
employed by this model, developed by Edward W. Burt
of the EPA, is identical to that of the NOAA Model for
periods of unstable and neutral atmospheric dispersion
conditions.2 During stable conditions, the plume
centerline is assumed to remain at a fixed height
above the source, except that direct impaction of the
plume centerline against elevated terrain is not
allowed. Instead, as the plume encounters terrain of
height equal to, or greater than, the plume centerline
height, a separation of 10 meters between the plume centerline
and the adjacent terrain is maintained. As the plume
Van der Hoven, Isaac, and others (March 1972) Southwest
Energy Study: Appendix E. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration.
2
Burt, Edward W. (1975) "Description of Terrain Model
(C7M3D)." Private communication to Radian Corporation, Austin,
Texas.
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4-14
"rides up" the terrain, the calculated ground level
concentration decreases from the value for the
receptor -located at the height of the plume centerline
to a value of zero for the receptor located at a point
400 meters higher in elevation. As the plume "rides
down" the terrain on the downwind side of the elevated
obstruction, it treats receptors on the leeward slope
in the same manner as those on the windward slope.
ERT Air Quality Model: This model accounts for
elevated terrain by permitting the plume to be
lifted one-half of the difference between the
height of the receptor and the height of the stack
base with the additional restriction that the plume
always be at least half of its calculated equilibrium
height above the ground.-*-
University of Colorado Air Pollution Generation
and Dispersion Model: This model relies upon the
input of representative local wind rose data to
insure that the effects of terrain upon wind flow
are properly treated. The terrain is assumed to
shape the wind rose in mountainous areas.
Furthermore, the model predicts direct impaction
of the plume on elevated terrain if the terrain
height equals or exceeds the height of the plume
centerline.^
Environmental Research and Technology (November 19, 1974)
Description of Gaussian Dispersion and Plume Rise Models,
Appendix A. Concord, Mass.: Environmental Research and
Technology.
2
Howe, Charles W., Jan F. Kreider, and Bernard Udis
(October 1972) An Economic Analysis of the Pollution Problems
in the Colorado River Basin; The Upper Main Stem Sub-Basin.
Boulder, Colo.: University of Colorado.
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4-15
5- Box Model; The box model as described by Bruce Turner
treats the problem of the restriction of horizontal
dispersion by the sides of a valley. When the
horizontal dispersion coefficient becomes great
enough, the concentrations can be assumed to be
uniform across the width of the valley.
Based upon the specific sites and the similarity of terrain
treatment in these techniques, the following methods were selected
for use in the first-year: (1) releases from elevated sources
will be advected at a constant level above the terrain for all
stability conditions in areas of flat or gently sloping terrain;
(2) in areas of abrupt discontinuities in terrain, the NOAA model
terrain treatment will be used, with the exception that a ten
meter minimum separation distance will be maintained between the
plume centerline and the receptor. Concentrations resulting
from the low-level, area-wide releases of fugitive emissions
entrained in valley drainage flow regimes will be predicted
using the box model.
These terrain treatments will be incorporated in short-term,
medium-range, and long-term Gaussian dispersion models using the
2
Briggs 1970 X- plume rise formula, Pasquill-Gifford dispersion
^
coefficients , and a special treatment for area sources. These
Turner, D.B. (1970) Workbook of Atmospheric Dispersion
Estimates, Public Health Service Publication No. 999-AP-26.
2
Briggs, G.A. (1970) "Some Recent Analyses of Plume Rise
Observations." Paper presented at the International Air
Pollution Conference of the International Air Pollution Prevention
Associates.
Turner, D.B. (1970) Workbook of Atmospheric Dispersion
Estimates, Public Health Service Publication No. 999-AP-26.
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4-16
three types of models and the area source treatment are as
follows:
1. Short-term models (Predict concentrations for
averaging times of three hours or less):
Computations are made for any combination of
wind speed and stability class desired, and
the model may be exercised to identify "worst-case1
wind direction and downwind distance to point
of maximum impact.
2. Medium-range models (Predict concentrations for
averaging times greater than three hours, but
less than 24 to 48 hours): The averaging time
period is divided into an integral number of
shorter-term intervals with specific plant
emissions and meteorological conditions which
are assumed constant within a time interval,
but which can change from interval to interval.
For a given interval, the short-term model is
used to compute the concentrations at particular
receptors, and the final concentration for the
desired averaging time is computed as a weighted
average of the contributions from the individual
time increments.
3. Long-term models (predict concentrations for
monthly, seasonal, or annual periods): This
model uses statistical meteorological data
(stability and wind rose data) collected at
National Weather Service offices and computes
concentrations for a grid of receptors based on
the frequency of occurrence of different sets
of meteorological conditions.
4. The fugitive emissions from low-level releases
will be treated as area sources. These emissions
from flanges, valves, or other leaks from
processing facilities have been shown to be
important. For the short-term, medium-range,
and long-terra models, sources of fugitive
emissions will be divided into a number of
Radian Corporation (February 15, 1974) Final Report;
Program to Investigate Various Factors in Refinery Siting.
Austin, Texas: Radian Corporation.
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4-17
rectangular areas for which uniform emissions
throughout each area may be assumed. A
two-dimensional integration will be performed
over each rectangular area to determine the
contribution of each area to each receptor.
2. Cooling Tower Drift Modeling
Although a number of plant cooling module configurations
will be assessed in this TA, one important configuration for
air quality analysis is the use of wet cooling towers. These
towers result in a downwind plume of moist air with entrained
water droplets which then "rain out" over the landscape. The
model that will be used to predict cooling tower drift deposition
is the Hosier Model. This model is a ballistic type model that
accounts for changes in fall velocities due to drop size and
changes in drop size due to evaporation. Required as input to
this model is the plume rise of the cooling tower plume. This
2
will be calculated, based on Hanna's method which considers the
release of additional heat in the plume due to moisture condensation.
While there are more exact models available for drift
deposition prediction, they were not selected because the impact
of cooling tower drift is not expected to be significant, since
Hosier, C.L., J. Pena, and R. Pena (1974) "Determination of
Salt Deposition Rates from Drift from Evaporative Cooling Towers."
Journal of Engineering for Power/Transactions of ASME (July).
2
Hanna, S.R. (December 1971) Cooling Tower Plume Rise and
Condensation. Oak Ridge, Tenn.: National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, Air Resources, Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion
Laboratory.
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4-18
fresh water cooling towers will be used in all cases. The major
impact of cooling tower drift deposition occurs when salt water
cooling towers are used.
3. Persistent, Long-Range and Trace Materials Analysis
A number of residuals from energy facilities may be suspended
for long time periods, travel long distances, change their
chemical composition, or occur in particle size or amounts that
are difficult to predict. These "small and large scale" effects
are, in many instances, central problems for the establishment of
standards, in part because the effects are little known or there
are little data to develop definite criteria documents. For this
reason, a good deal of EPA's research is currently focused to
provide persons associated with the development of standards
greater assurances about problems that now have high levels of
uncertainty. To the extent possible, this TA will address these
problems, particularly as they apply to our site-specific, aggregated
scenarios. We underline, however, that this is not a study to
develop new predictive models. Consequently, the approach to be
used brings together the best available information to describe
these issues of current interest. The following sections describe
the importance and current level of understanding and our approach
to these small and large scale effects, including descriptions of
levels of atmospheric sulfates, nitrates, oxidants, and fine
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4-19
particulates, and the effects these may have on long-range
visibility, plume opacity, and trace element and trace chemical
concentrations, as well as weather modification.
a. Sulfate
Atmospheric sulfate has become the focus of increasing
attention and concern, primarily because of reports of association
between adverse effects and elevated atmospheric sulfate
concentrations. Recent data on ambient sulfate levels collected
by the National Air Surveillance Network has indicated elevated
ambient sulfate levels over large areas of the eastern U.S.
Other adverse effects of atmospheric sulfates on the environment
have been associated with acid rain and the impact of particulate
sulfates on weather, visibility, and climate.
It is generally assumed that a substantial portion of the
elevated concentrations of sulfate aerosol found in the atmosphere
derive from oxidation of SO2- This oxidation produces sulfuric
acid which condenses at very low concentrations to a liquid
aerosol. Reaction of sulfuric acid with other atmospheric
components may produce salts such as ammonium sulfate. The
particle size of sulfuric acid or sulfate salt aerosols is in
the submicron range, and particles may be transported for long
distances as they do not settle out readily. Atmospheric
sulfate is usually not produced at the pollution source, but in
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4-20
the atmosphere by chemical reaction. When coupled with the
chemical stability and small particle size of the product, this
makes modeling atmospheric sulfate concentrations a complex task.
Although empirical correlations have been derived between
SO- concentrations and atmospheric sulfate levels, there" is much
scatter in the data and questions have been raised concerning
the validity of the data base used. There is no general consensus
as to the mechanism or mechanisms actually responsible for SO,,
oxidation in the atmosphere. Possible pathways for this reaction
which have been reported to progress at rates high enough to
account for the observed SO- oxidation in the atmosphere include:
1. Photo-oxidation in the presence of active
hydrocarbons and ozone.
2. Gas phase oxidation in the dark in the
presence of active hydrocarbons and ozone.
3. Gas phase reaction with ammonia in the
presence of water vapor accompanied by
oxidation.
4. Oxidation in aqueous solutions by dissolved
molecular oxygen catalyzed by metal cations
or ammonia.
5. Oxidation in aqueous solution by dissolved
ozone.
6. Oxidation on the surface of solid particles
(metal oxides or soot).
None of these proposed pathways has been shown to be the single
dominant mechanism operative in the atmosphere. It is quite
possible that different mechanisms dominate under different
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atmospheric conditions. The research team's approach will be to
assess the general level of potential atmospheric sulfates to
describe the extent to which sulfate addition from western energy
development may contribute to the current problem.
b. Nitrates
The source and formation of nitrates in the atmosphere are
not well understood. The precursor NO have both natural and
2C
anthropogenic sources; and they also probably have a wide variety
of loss mechanisms besides nitrate formation. The impacts of
nitrates also are poorly understood, but possibly include such
important areas as visibility and health effects.
In addition to ongoing research programs on the occurrence,
formation, and impacts of nitrates, much relevant information may
be produced as a by-product of studies on sulfates. Active
programs and results in both these areas will be monitored. As the
state-of-the-art permits, these results will be used to assess the
impact of nitrates derived directly or indirectly from new energy
facilities in the West.
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4-22
c. Oxidants
Oxidants include primary pollutants (emitted from specific
sources) and secondary pollutants (formed in the atmosphere).
Types of compounds include ozone, aldehydes, peroxides, peroxyacyl
nitrates (PAN), NO,,, chlorine, bromine, and so forth. Present
air quality laws are designed such that only ozone is measured
for purposes of comparison to the standard; however, much
uncertainty exists as to whether other oxidants may be more
important with regard to impacts such as visbility changes,
health effects, and property damage. The formation of the
secondary pollutants such as ozone, peroxides, and aldehydes is
not well enough understood to permit prediction of the time and
levels of their occurrence. When combined with the uncertainty
in the relative effect of the various species, this makes it
difficult to predict site-specific impacts.
Considerable research is presently being conducted in the
areas discussed above. The approach in this TA will be to identify
these studies and to obtain the most recent results that are
available. As the state-of-the-art permits, these results and
existing information and theories will be used to define the
impacts of new energy facilities with regard to oxidants.
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d. Fine Particulates and Long-Range Visibility
Fine particulates are classified as particles that are less
than one to three microns in diameter. These particles are of
concern for health effects and aesthetic reasons since they are
responsible to a large extent for visibility reductions that
occur in polluted areas. Some fine particulates are ash particles
produced as a direct result of fossil fuel combustion (primarily
coal). Other fine particulates are produced by chemical reactions
of pollutants in the atmosphere (sulfates and nitrates, for
example). Fine particulates are not well understood (see
discussions of sulfates and nitrates). The results of recent
studies will be reviewed, and, to the extent possible, used to
predict the impact of western energy development on fine
particulate levels in the West.
Limitations on seeing distant objects (visibility) are
caused by these fine particulates being suspended in the
atmosphere and scattering light. At long distances, this
scattered light reduces the contrast between objects to a level
below the contrast threshold of the human eye, thus limiting the
distance at which different objects may be distinguished. The
theory of visibility is well-established. The reason that
visibility impacts of pollutant sources cannot be predicted at
this time is that the number and size distribution of the fine
particulates cannot be predicted. Thus, treatment of visibility
impacts in the first year will focus on data acquisition and the
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correlation of visibility impacts with ambient levels of criteria
pollutants.
e. Plume Opacity
The opacity of a plume is caused by the particulates present
in the plume in a manner similar to the way fine particulates
limit visibility (that is, light scattering). Plume opacity is
highly dependent upon the size distribution of the particles in
the plume as well as their optical properties. Since these
parameters cannot be predicted, the treatment of this impact
will be limited to a discussion of the problem which will include,
to the extent possible, estimates of the opacity range of the
plumes.
f. Trace Elements
Trace elements are known to be associated with many energy
raw materials. Much work has been done in the past few years to
develop and implement rapid, economical, and accurate analytical
methods for measuring these elements, particularly as they occur
in coal. The elements of interest include those identified in
Table 4-1.
A considerable body of data on trace element occurrence
in coals is being developed. Some data are becoming available
for oil shale; and the composition of some uranium ores is
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4-25
TABLE 4-1:
REPORTED RANGES IN TRACE
ELEMENT ANALYSIS OF U.S.
COALS
Trace Element
Ag
As
B
Ba
Be
Br
Cd
Co
Cr
Cu
F
Ga
Ge
Hg
La
Mn
Mo
Ni
p
Pb
Sb
Sc
Se
Sn
Sr
V
Y
Vb
Zn
Zr
Concentration Range
(ppm* o£ Coal)
Minimum
0.1
0.3
5.0
10.0
0.1
4.0
0.03
1.0
0.5
3.0
25.0
1.0
0.5
0.02
2.0
3.0
0.1
2.0
5.0
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
1.0
4.0
11.0
2.0
0.2
5.0
8.0
Maximum
5.0
93.0
280.0
1,390.0
6.0
52.0
65.0
44.0
54.0
85.0
372.0
14.0
43.0
1.6
27.0
440.0
30.0
80.0
400.0
218.0
43.0
16.0
8.0
425.0
960.0
86.0
46.0
2.0
5,350.0
145.0
ppm = parts per million
Source: Burklin, Clinton E. (August 1975) Characterization of
Waste Effluents from a Koppers-Totzek Gasification Plant.
Austin, Texas: Radian Corporation.
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4-26
documented. Data on the occurrence of inorganics associated with
oil and gas production are available for some known fields and
can be expected to be supplemented for developing fields.
Information on inorganics associated with geothermal resources
is also becoming available.
The fate of trace elements in oxidizing atmospheres such as
steam boilers has been determined in a number of cases. This
information will be assembled, presented, and extended as
additional information becomes available. For reducing
atmospheres such as gasification or liquefaction facilities less
data are available on the fate of trace elements and their
presence as air emissions (and in water effluents, or as solid
wastes). The limited information available from such sources
as the Bureau of Mines and from licensors will be presented; and
again, additional new data will be sought.
g. Trace Organics
Organic chemical emissions and effluents are expected to be
an important issue in this TA. Only isolated data are available
from small, old plants in the case of Lurgi gasification
technology, and only from pilot or bench scale facilities in
some other cases. Interpretation in terms of large-scale
plants is tenuous. However, from experience in the coking
industry, for example, and, from the limited data mentioned
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above, the presence of hazardous toxins, carcinogens, and so
forth, can be expected in processing facilities. Classes of
compounds such as those listed in Table 4-2, can be expected to
be present.
It is not expected that quantification and detailed
definition of the emissions will be known during the course of
this project, since full-scale plant data will not exist within
the project time frame. However, data relevant to the issue will
be obtained and reported, both current data and those which can
be expected to be generated by pilot facilities now being
constructed.
h. Weather Modification
Weather modification resulting from energy development
activities may include increased fogging and icing due to cooling
tower plumes, decreased visibilities due to particulate matter
emissions (described above), and changes in cloud formation and
precipitation frequencies and amounts due to the release of
submicron particles into the atmosphere.
The potential for local cloud formation and precipitation
resulting from the increased releases of moisture and condensation
nuclei should be examined. Because of the wide variability of
local terrain and local meteorological regimes in the western U.S.,
empirical models predicting changes in cloud formation and
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TABLE 4-2:
SOME POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS COMPONENTS
FROM FUEL COAL PROCESSING FACILITIES
Hazardous Component
* **
(TVL) (ppm)
Saturated Hydrocarbons
Olefinic Hydrocarbons
Monocyclic Aromatics
a,b
Polyeyelie Aromatics
c,d
e,f
Heterocyclic Hydrocarbons
Phenols
Metals (as organometallies)
100 to 500
0
10 to 100
traces to 10
0
5
0
**
TLV = threshold limit value for occupational exposure
t
ppm = parts per million
Source: Hydrocarbon Processing (1974) "Hydrocarbon
Processing Refining Process Handbook." 53 (9).
Melpolder, F.W., and others (1952) "Composition of
Naptha from Fluid Catalytic Cracking." Industrial
and Engineering Chemistry 44 (5): 1142.
°Hunt, R.H. and M.J. O'Neal, Jr. (1965) "The
Composition of Petroleum," in John J. McKetta
(ed.) Advances in Petroleum Chemistry and
Refining, Vol. 10. New York: Wiley Interscience.
Tye, Russell, and others (1966) "Carcinogens in
a Cracked Petroleum Residuum." Archives of
Environmental Health 13: 202.
Sjollaston, E.G., W.L. Forsythe, and I.A. Vosalos
(1971) "Sulfur Distribution in FCU Products."
Oil and Gas Journal 69 (August 2): 64-69.
Lochte, Harry L., and E.R. Littman (1955) The
Petroleum Acids and Bases. New York: Chemical
Publishing.
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precipitation should be developed for specific sites. Such models
would correlate atmospheric particulate loading, absolute or
relative humidity, and local and synoptic scale meteorological
parameters with the occurrence of the formation of clouds and
resultant precipitation.
D. Anticipated Results
The results of criteria pollutant air quality impact analysis
will be ambient concentrations of S09, NO , CO, and total
^ X
particulates and hydrocarbons computed for selected averaging
times. These data will be in a form useful for describing
pollutant doses so that potential ecological, social, economic,
and health effects can be studied. Ambient pollutant levels
will also be useful in issue identification for a number of
potential policy problems such as siting individual or clusters
of facilities, requirements for control devices or strategies
for burning different qualities of coal, and the potential for
exceeding federal and state ambient air quality standards.
The results of the cooling tower drift analysis will be
expressed as land areas subject to saline mist so that such
factors as potential for crop damage or rainout on various
surfaces (such as glass cr metal) can be studied. The descriptive
results of sulfates, nitrates, oxidants, and particulates will
provide useful information for long-range or long-term problems,
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such as visibility reduction or acid rain that may affect pine
tree growth. These long-range or long-term problems may be
especially important in the formulation of new standards or
other policies that may affect western energy development.
E. Data Adequacy
Although applicable data from climatological tapes are
available for one of the scenario locations (Navajo/Farmington,
New Mexico), in four instances major meteorological stations are
more than 50 miles away. (Data from the National Climatic Center
having the necessary observations do not include sites which are
close to Gillette, Beulah, Colstrip, or Rifle.) The meteorological
data source for Kaiparowits (Bryce Canyon) is less than 50 miles
away, but may or may not be totally applicable to the Kaiparowits
site because of terrain differences. Unless other applicable
meteorological data sources (other than existing National Weather
Service stations) for these five sites (all but Navajo/Farmington)
can be located and used, considerable meteorological extrapolation
will be required to transform the existing climatological data
into a state more representative of the individual scenario
locations.
In some cases, distributions of upper air observations may
be needed to modify stability wind roses for those scenario
locations which are in regions of particularly complex terrain
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(a situation which greatly affects the meteorology). Because of
the meteorological extrapolations and modifications which must be
attempted on the existing data, however, the uncertainty factor
in the projections and modeling efforts that will utilize this
data will increase.
Some meteorological data which provide estimates of the
pollution potential of the various sectors of the western U.S.
will be obtained from several sources, together with the
climatological paper described earlier.
One area of data adequacy that must be considered is that
of the dispersion coefficients for rough terrain. Studies that
have been made indicate that dispersion coefficients normally
used in Gaussian dispersion models may not be applicable for
rough terrain. if this is the case, then further studies are
required to determine what the proper dispersion coefficients
for rough terrain are.
Holzworth, George C. (1972) Mixing Heights, Wind Speeds,
and Potential for Urban Air Pollution Throughout the Contiguous
United States. Research Triangle Park, N.C.: Environmental
Protection Agency, National Environmental Research Center; and
Hosier, Charles R. (1961) "Low-level Inversion Frequency in
the Contiguous United States." Monthly Weather Review 89
(9): 319-339.
2
See for example, Heimback, J.A., Jr., A.B. Super, and J.T,
McPartland (1975) "Dispersion from an Elevated Source over
Colstrip, Montana." Paper presented at 68th Annual Meeting of
the Air Pollution Control Association, June 15-20.
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F. Research Adequacy
The models and data needed for quantitative treatment of
secondary pollutants, long-range visibility and weather modification
in support of this TA are not available. While models do exist
that predict secondary pollutant formation, these models have not
been validated, or, at best, validated only for a specific region
(for example, Los Angeles Basin oxidant models).
In the case of long-range visibility, the lack of data on
particle size distribution is a particularly acute problem since
even if concentrations of fine particulates, such as sulfates and
nitrates, could be predicted, their size distribution would not be
known. Another data inadequacy in this area is that of the complex
indices of refraction for the various types of particulates
(visibility is a strong function of this parameter).
Models that predict weather modifications that will occur
due to large-scale energy development are limited to postulates
of things that might happen or could happen. A good example of
the uncertainty in this area is the two arguments of future
temperature trends that will result from increased pollution:
1. The greenhouse effect—the CC>2 buildup will
cause the atmosphere to act as a barrier to
infrared radiation but as a window to
visible radiation thus trapping heat and
causing the earth's surface temperature
to rise.
2. The return of the ice age—the buildup of
particulates and photochemical oxidants in
the atmosphere will reduce the amount of
visible radiation that reaches the earth's
surface so that temperatures will drop worldwide.
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Problems may also be encountered in the prediction of the
air impact of primary pollutants. The areas of concern are
baseline ambient air quality data, meteorological data, and
dispersion coefficients for use in rough terrain. Ideally, data
on the existing ambient air concentrations of SO-, NO , CO,
^ ^v
and nonmethane hydrocarbons, and particulates for each of the
site-specific scenario locations is required. However, due to
the limited number of monitoring stations and the large extent of
the western region, this goal will most likely not be met.
Similar problems exist in the availability of meteorological data
for each of the sites.
4.2.2 Water Quality1
A. Introduction
The purpose of water quality impact analysis is to provide
information on changes in water quality for the ecological,
socioeconomic, and health effects analyses as well as for the
policy analysis of water quality issues. A number of issues have
been anticipated, including the salt concentration in a number of
critical rivers, such as the Colorado, where conflicts have
developed over the quality of water for agricultural purposes and
proposed changes to the Mexican Water Treaty of 1944. Solutions
Water quantity will be discussed in Section 4.3, Resource
Availability.
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to problems such as these can take the form of instream standards
or permit requirements, limitations on water use, requirements
for new technologies, or general limitations on the level of
development of the western region.
The potential scope of water quality analysis can be very
broad as new energy facilities, mining, and increased populations
typically have a number of residuals that affect surface and
groundwater quality, including, for example, changes in the types
and concentrations of dissolved solids, addition of oxygen
removing biological and chemical materials, and changes in physical
properties such as turbidity and temperature. Although this TA
will qualitatively identify the range of these changes in assessing
the spectrum of water quality impacts, its focus will be primarily
on anticipated impacts of major concern such as: changes in
instream water quality as assessed by the increase in total
dissolved solids (TDS) from both salt loading and salt concentrating
effects; and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) that are the result
of municipal sewage discharges. TDS and BOD provide yardsticks
for assessing the impact of water quality changes caused by two
areas of major concern: effluents and water use from energy
and municipal facilities. Other parameters useful in analyzing
water quality are:
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1. Ambient Surface Water Conditions
a. flow
b. depletions
c. return flows
d. salinity (background)
e. instream requirements for biota and wild and scenic
rivers
2. Groundwater
a. ambient quality
b. adaptability to various uses
c. projected changes in quality
d. pumping rates
e. transmissivity
f. existing regulations
Legislation identifying water quality as the source of
significant problems and issues has been taken into account in
structuring the water quality impact analyses to be described in
this section. The pollution control strategy outlined in the
Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972 is among
the more important of these factors. This Act establishes
national goals which include:
1. the elimination of the discharge of pollutants into
navigable waters by 1985; and
2. wherever attainable, the achievement of water quality
which provides for the protection and propagation of
fish, shellfish, and wildlife and provides for recreation
in and on the water (to be achieved by July 1, 1983).
These water quality goals have been interpreted in terms of
technology-based objectives. The applicable technology objectives
are as follows:
86 Stat. 816. (Commonly referred to as P.L. 92-500)
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Category
Existing
nonpublicly
owned
treatment
works
1977
Best
practicable
control
technology
currently
available
1983
Best available
technology
economically
achievable
1985
Where practicable,
Zero Discharge
of Pollutants
(ZDP)
New
nonpublicly
owned
treatment
works
New source standards of
performance, if promulgated,
(generally aimed toward 1983
goals) which apply best
available demonstrated control
technology
Where practicable,
ZDP
Existing
publicly
owned
treatment
works
New
publicly
owned
treatment
works
Secondary
treatment
Best
practicable
waste
treatment
technology
Best
practicable
waste
treatment
technology
Allowance for
recycle or
reclaiming of
water or ZDP
Allowance for
recycle or
reclaiming of
water or ZDP
Although New Source Standards of Performance (NSSP) have not
been drafted for most of the processes considered in this TA, there
2 3
are guidelines for steam electric power plants and for both coal
4
and uranium mining. Additionally, proposed Department of the
Interior regulations presently exist for other coal mining
•86 Stat. 816, Section 306(a).
!40 CFR 122; 40 CFR 423.
^Federal Register 40 (September 5, 1975): 41122,
40 CFR 434.
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operations which may have an effect on water quality. If
construction is begun on a privately-owned source for which no
new source standards of performance have been promulgated, as is
the case for most new energy process technologies, the effluent
2
will still be subject to regulation by the EPA administrator
and applicable to state laws. However, because of the considerable
attention being given to energy resource development and new
energy conversion technologies, NSSP may be in existence by the
time these facilities are ready to go on-line. The effluent
standards set by an NSSP can be made more stringent by state
regulations.
For purposes of a baseline analysis, it will be assumed that
it is feasible to obtain ZDP for the energy developments included
in our scenarios. However, sensitivity analyses will be performed
addressing pertinent discharge alternatives such as: (1) TDS
and waste-heat discharges; and (2) the discharge of those
industrial waste streams which cause significant reduction in
either treatment cost or waste volume. These analyses will
identify the qualitative changes in water quality caused by these
140 CFR 440.
286 Stat. 816, Section 402(a)(l).
386 Stat. 816, Section 510.
486 Stat. 816, Section 306(c).
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waste streams and the impact of these changes on important species
of biota.
There are several reasons for taking this approach. One is
developing political pressures in the West. For example, in
presenting proposed standards and an implementation program for
salinity control, the Colorado River Basin Control Forum proposed
that "as each state (in the Colorado River Basin) adopts the plan
for implementation, the objective for industrial discharges shall
be a no-salt return policy whenever possible". Another is that
the raw coals used in some of the scenarios contain a variety of
trace substances including some heavy metals and produce possible
carcinogenic organics. Some of these materials may well be added
to the toxic materials list and it is possible that this action
will cause additional pressure to be brought in support of the
ZDP position. Because of the uncertainties involved in the ZDP
issue, sensitivity analysis will be performed around this basic
water quality goal to support the policy analyses.
Another assumption is that all industrial processes will
also have to meet applicable state effluent guidelines and
instream water quality standards. This means that different
effluent concentration restrictions may be required for the same
industry, depending upon the specific location of the discharge.
Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Forum (June 1975)
Proposed Water Quality Standards for Salinity Including Numeric
Criteria and Plan of Implementation for Salinity Control,
Colorado River System.
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This variation can occur as a result of different state criteria
as well as unique water quality criteria for specific stream
segments. To assess the impact of state water regulations on the
release of effluents from the energy developments postulated in
the scenarios, the ZDP sensitivity analysis will use state effluent
regulations as one set of conditions.
The base case water quality analysis will address the problems
of TDS pollution in the river basins under consideration because,
although the postulated scenario developments may be restricted
from returning salt to the rivers, the consumptive use of water
may also have an effect on salt pollution.
The base case assumption related to the secondary effects
associated with population growth is that municipal sewage
treatment facilities will follow the guidelines presented in the
Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972 for Best
Practicable Waste Treatment Technology (1983 goal) with allowance
for recycle or reclaiming of water or ZDP by 1985. Performance
guidelines for the control of salinity from the return flows of
irrigated agriculture will be incorporated in the analysis as
they become available.
In addition to surface water problems, the disruption in
groundwater flows and the alteration of groundwater quality due
to strip mining operations and process use will be investigated
in the existing literature. (For example, in some locations
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there may be indications that the water table around a mine could
be lowered below the depths of domestic wells and cause springs
and seeps to dry up.) Wherever sufficient data are available,
the influence of surface pollution sources on groundwater quality
will also be evaluated through examination of hydrogeological
parameters relating those aqueous systems.
B. Baseline Data
Baseline data needs fall into two general categories: data
needed to characterize and quantify the water consumed by and
effluents from process units, municipalities, and other uses such
as agriculture; and data needed to describe the existing conditions
of the affected hydrological systems. In large part, the first
data requirement will come from other sections of the TA. For
example, data on the expected water consumption and effluents
from the technological processes specified by the scenarios will
come from the energy resource development systems (ERDS) described
in Chapter 3. Data on population and land uses which will affect
water uses will be produced by the social impact analyses
described in this chapter.
C. Methods and Procedures
A number of modeling techniques are available, either as
simple hand-calculated dilution and mass balance models or as
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more sophisticated computerized numerical models. The latter
can either be in the form of: (1) site-specific stream-segment
or basin models; (2) generalized models which are used for the
prediction of conservative or nonconservative pollution transport
and which must be calibrated and verified for a specific stream
segment prior to use; or (3) site-specific stream-segment or basin
models previously developed for a specific use. Because it is the
nature of water models to be site (or basin) specific, generalized
models will not be used.
Upper Colorado and Upper Missouri River Basins are described
below:
1. Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB)
a. The Colorado River Salt Routing Model is a planning
tool developed by the Bureau of Reclamation as an
interim measure to evaluate salinity impacts resulting
from water resource developments and salinity control
projects. It routes flow and salt through a river
system and includes reservoir operations. The model
is basically an accounting system with limited
simulation capabilities. Flows and salinity are
routed through the river system using a time frame
of one month.
Total dissolved solids are used as the quality
parameter. Because mass balance concepts are
Huntley, Charles W. (1975) "Hydrologic Models Used in the
Colorado River Basin". Presented at the U.S.-U.S.S.R. Group,
Planning, Utilization and Management of Water Resources, Dec. 8-9.
Unpublished paper, Denver, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation; and Ribbens,
Richard W., and Robert F. Wilson (September 1973) Application of
a River Network Model to Water Quality Investigations for the
Colorado River. Denver, Colo.: Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Reclamation, Engineering and Research Center.
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employed, chemical precipitation, dissolution, and
reactions of individual constituents are not
modeled. These effects must be included by
appropriate inputs. While flow is assumed to be
independent of quality, quality does depend on flows.
Both bank storage and evaporation are included for
reservoirs. Complete mixing of surface and
groundwater in bank storage is assumed, resulting
in a uniform reservoir water quality. Stratification,
incomplete mixing, varying detention times, and
variable withdrawal levels are ignored. For normal
conditions, reservoirs use a lag of one month for
computing the quality of releases.
Program inputs include the system configuration:
reservoir characteristics, parameters, initial
conditions, evaporation rates, and operating
criteria; upstream and downstream boundary values;
water use inputs; and run and output options. Output
includes printed and cathode ray tube plots of
results at various river locations and reservoirs.
This model is a general type model and there are no
special subroutines for a particular river basin.
It has been applied to the Colorado River Basin.
b. The Colorado River Simulation Model is a more
comprehensive model currently being developed for use
on a wide range of problems in the planning,
utilization, and management of Colorado River water
resources. This model uses synthetic generation of
river flow and salinity.
The model is being developed by the Engineering and
Research Center, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver,
Colorado, with assistance from the Bureau of
Reclamation Regional Offices in Salt Lake City, Utah,
and Boulder City, Nevada. It simulates streamflow
and salinity in a river basin. The node concept is
utilized with each node representing a specific
reach of river. The node structure which the user
Huntley, Charles W. (1975) "Hydrologic Models Used in the
Colorado River Basin." Presented at the U.S.-U.S.S.R. Group,
Planning, Utilization and Management of Water Resources, Dec. 8-9.
Unpublished paper, Denver, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
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sets up for the model forms the pattern for all
other inputs and model computational order.
Computations are made on a monthly time basis.
This model provides the user the capability of
varying demand and hydrologic inputs at points
throughout the basin, thereby permitting an
examination of the effects of these variations on
water availability and salinity concentrations in
the basin.
Four groups of inputs are required:
(1) Node structure
(2) Reservoir operational data
(3) Demand data
(4) Hydrology data
Several features have been incorporated into the
general river basin model to reflect specific
Colorado River operations. These include use of
snowmelt-runoff forecasts for January through July
reservoir operations, distribution of water between
the Metropolitan Water District of California and
the Central Arizona Project, water splitting between
the Upper and Lower Basins, and storage requirements
of the Upper Basin described in Section 602 (s) of
Public Law 90-537, and flood operations.
The Return Plow Prediction Model is a comprehensive
tool for: (1) predicting the quantity and quality
of flow passing downward beyond the root zone and
reaching the drainage system; and (2) predicting
changes in soil chemistry resulting from irrigation.
The model is divided into several subsections which
address :
1Huntley, Charles W. (1975) "Hydrologic Models Used in the
Colorado River Basin". Presented at the U.S.-U.S.S.R. Group,
Planning, Utilization and Management of Water Resources, Dec. 8-9.
Unpublished paper, Denver, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation; and Shaffer,
Marvin J., and Richard W. Ribbens (October 1974) Generalized
Description of a Return Flow Quality Simulation Model. Denver:
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Engineering
and Research Center.
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(1) Irxigation scheduling
(2) Unsaturated flow
(3) Drainout (amount of water leaving the aquifer
per day)
(4) Saturated flow
(5) Chemistry interface
(6) Unsaturated chemistry
(7) Saturated chemistry
(8) Drain effluent prediction (quality of water
leaving the aquifer)
Currently the following pollution parameters are
identified in the model: nitrate, ammonium, calcium,
sodium, magnesium, bicarbonate, chloride, carbonate,
and sulfate. It is highly site-specific with regard
to irrigated agriculture (which is not the main
focus of this TA) and it is not expected that it will
be used.
This model has been used in the Colorado River Basin
by the Bureau of Reclamation.
d. The Hydro-Salinity Model of Utah State University
addresses flow and salinity within the UCRB but as it
is an analog model, it will probably not be used in
this study.
2
e. The University of Colorado Hydro-Salinity Model is
a digital computer adaptation and extension of the
analog computer model developed by M. Leon Hyatt and
others at Utah State University. The model consists
of mathematical and logical representations of the
various hydrological and routing functions which
occur in all river basins. The model thus is not
limited to any particular geographic area. The
specific characteristics of each basin are
incorporated into the model during the calibration
process.
Hyatt, M. Leon and others (1970) Computer Simulation of the
Hydrologic-Salinity Flow System within the Upper Colorado River
Basin. Logan, Utah: Utah State University, Utah Water Research
Laboratory.
2
Howe, Charles W. (1975) Primary and Secondary Impacts of
Energy Development in the Gunnison River Area, the Hydro-Salinity
Model Appendix, Draft Report. Boulder, Colo.: University of
Colorado.
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The hydro-salinity model can be viewed as consisting
of three components:
(1) an economic input/output interfacing package;
(2) a hydrologic model;
(3) a salt flow model overlying the hydrologic
model.
Hydrologic flow data on some streams are available
on a daily basis, but many other types of data
necessary for calibrating and running the model are
available only as monthly aggregates. This requires
the model to use one month as its time unit.
The model includes an economic-to-hydrologic
interfacing routine which takes total gross output
data generated by a regional economic model and
converts these into demands for water and other
consequent impacts. The model also allows for the
presence of both within-basin and end-of-basin
reservoir storage. Since most within basin storage
is used for irrigation, a feedback mechanism is
included which translates shortages of irrigation
water into increased reservoir releases.
2. Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB)
a. It appears that most water quality analyses in the
UMRB have been done by hand calculations.
As explained previously, calculations of this type
are used to make simplified analyses of water
quality changes. In general, hand calculations
make general assumptions as to flow, river cross
section, travel time (stream flow time from point
to point), reaeration and deoxygenation coefficients,
and temperature. Similar efforts may be used for
analyses in the UMRB until models presently under
development are completed, calibrated, and verified.
b. Montana State University does have a program which
models water flow and quality for the Yellowstone
River. However, the one current model is still
experimental.
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The applicability of the Montana State model and the models
discussed for the Colorado will be evaluated and one or more of
the models may be exercised in cooperation with the developer.
Wherever possible, these more specific basin models will be used
to aid in establishing new values for pollution parameters that
are of significance either during the construction or operation
of the applicable scenarios.
New water quality computer models will not be developed
during this investigation. Extensive use of computer modeling of
water quality is not anticipated during the first year work effort.
Instead, an investigation of water quality changes associated
with salinity in the affected river basins will be made both
locally and at a basin level analysis.
D. Anticipated Results
The water quality analysis will use the site-specific and
aggregate scenario developments as tools to help identify and
define issues related to water quality. Changes in the
concentration or quantity of pollution, as defined by illustrative
parameters, will be presented in graphs and tables that relate
parameter changes to level of energy development, type of process,
and location.
Additionally, the relationship between various legislated
pollution control requirements will be defined and presented in
an interaction chart that shows the relationship between the
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states through which the water flows and the changes in
water-related regulations that are particular to those states.
This product will provide the policy analysis with a tool that
relates the changing instream quality and effluent-based
regulations throughout the basin to significant jurisdictional
boundaries and basin location.
A by-product of the water quality sensitivity analysis will
be an interpretation of the necessary internal water use schemes
that may be applied by process technologies to meet the required
water quality standards. The outputs of the water quality
analysis will be used in the ecological analysis as an aid in
defining ecological issues. The identification of both water
quality and ecological issues related to water quality will be
the most significant result of the water quality analysis as
these issues will provide the basis for subsequent policy
analysis.
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E. Data Adequacy
The primary data sources for this study are recent reports
that have focused on the western water problems. On-going
research is focusing on some of the more obvious data analysis
needs. Numerical models which accurately reflect the water flow
and quality conditions of the basins to be most affected by
energy development are, in some cases, being constructed. The
UMRB data needs are more obvious than those for the UCRB.
The Colorado River Simulation Model described above will be
documented by the summer of 1976 and, if the necessary data can
be collected, will be available for use by January, 1977. This
model will supersede the previous water flow and quality models
in its total capability to manage water in the UCRB but will not
provide a capability for independent subbasins.
The Montana Department of Natural Resources is currently
developing a model for flow in the Yellowstone River Basin as a
major part of a program being funded by the Old West Regional
1Ficke, John F., John B. Weeks, and Frank A. Welder (1974)
Hydrologic Data from the Piceance Basin, Colorado, Colorado Water
Resources Basic-Data Release No. 31. Denver, Colo.: Colorado
Department of Natural Resources and U.S. Geological Survey; and
Missouri Basin Inter-Agency Committee (1971) The Missouri River
Basin Comprehensive Framework Study, 7 vols.; and Northern Great
Plains Resources Program, Water Work Group, Water Quality Subgroup
(August 1974) Discussion Draft. Denver: Northern Great Plains
Resources Program; and Water Resources Council, Upper Colorado
Region State-Federal Inter-Agency Group (1971) Upper Colorado
Region Comprehensive Framework Study and Appendices.
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Commission. This program could be modified to address water
quality problems if more funding was available. Generally
speaking, raw data are available but the basin-specific analysis
capabilities need to be improved.
Montana State University has a current contract with EPA to
develop a new flow and water quality model of the Yellowstone
Basin. This model is expected to be verified by January 1977.
Data on groundwater are available from several sources.
Although existing data are generally diffuse and in need of
interpretation, twenty-four research projects related to
groundwater availability and quality currently underway in the
UMRB have been identified. Similar projects are being identified
in the UCRB.
F. Research Adequacy
Water has been identified as one of the more significant
issues concerning energy resource development in the West.
Although water quantity has received most of the attention, water
quality problems have also been studied. The continued emphasis
on water-related problems in the western states should insure
that increased research is conducted in this area. Since 1970,
Old West Regional Commission and Department of Agriculture,
Forest Service (1975) Energy Research Information Service (ERIS)
Quarterly Report 1 (November).
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a number of major inputs have been made into the understanding of
western water problems. Several groups are presently funding
research in water quality related to energy development. For
example, EPA is supporting germane research in:
The Environmental Assessment of High-Btu Gasification
Proposal for an Environmental Assessment of Effluents
from Coal Liquefaction
Environmental Assessment of Coal Cleaning Process
Study of Disposal of By-Products from Nonregenerable Flue
Gas Desulfurization Systems
Survey of Environmental Regulations and the Assessment of
Pollution Potential and Control Technology Applications
for Geothermal Resource Development
Water Conservation and Pollution Control Alternatives in
Coal Gasification and Liquefaction Processes
Optimizing Wet/Dry Cooling Towers for Water Conservation
and Plume Abatement
Manual of Practice to Control Sediment and Erosion During
Mining
Pollution Control Guidelines for Coal Refuse Piles and
Slurry Ponds
An Evaluation of the Environmental Impact of the Existing
Surface Mining Methods for Western Coal Mines
All of the above projects would have some data input to water
quality analyses. Forty-two research projects are currently
identified for the UMRB. Seventeen of these are related to
surface water quality. These projects have been identified
Old West Regional Commission and Department of Agriculture,
Forest Service (1975) Energy Research Information Service (ERIS)
Quarterly Report 1 (November).
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through the efforts of the Old West Regional Commission to
catalogue all research related to energy development in the Old
West area (Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota,
Nebraska). Similar efforts are being identified for the UCRB.
For example, the Western States Water Council is currently
involved in the identification of research within the western
states to include the Colorado River Basin.
The identification of current research will be used as a
tool in the analysis of research needs in the water area. The
research adequacy report that will be generated as part of this
TA will include these findings.
4.2.3 Solid Waste
A. Introduction
The impacts of solid waste disposal raise significant issues
for western energy development, particularly in oil shale and
coal development. For example, issues in coal development arise
in connection with separation and reuse of topsoil, strip mining,
uncertainty over the fate of heavy metals, locating disposal sites
for sludges, exporting part of the solid waste, and permeability
changes in reclaimed surfaces and underground mines that affect
groundwater aquifers. In addition, secondary municipal
developments result in increases in solid waste disposal.
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However, these are not of equal magnitude with those of some of
the mining and processing facilities.
Three categories of impacts will be addressed in this
analysis: (1) potential disposal sites for the spoils waste;
(2) a description of problem compounds present in the solids; and
(3) the movement of chemicals through soil media. The last two
categories include, where possible, the heavy metal content of
coal ash and any radioactive isotopes in coal ash, coal
gasification wastes, or uranium milling tailings. The higher
order impacts derived from these problems are discussed in the
analysis of ecological, social, economic, and political impacts.
Reclamation problems are discussed in the Ecological Impacts
section (Section 4.5).
B. Baseline Data
Three kinds of baseline data are essential for assessing
solid waste impacts: (1) descriptions of technological activities
and associated solid waste residuals; (2) data on existing
conditions such as soil type, topography; and (3) anticipated
municipal developments associated with energy facilities. Although
the new technology processes that will be used in some of the
developments postulated in the scenarios have not been completely
defined in terms of their effluents and waste products, the solid
waste effects of exploration, coal strip mining, and some of the
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other process steps are known and are included in the residuals
data section of the descriptions of each of the ERDS. Residuals
data include quantities of overburden, ash, recovered elements
(for example, sulfur), stack gas cleaner sludge, spent shale,
tailings from uranium milling, and suspended solids removed in
water treatment. Existing topographic data are available from
USGS maps; much of the soils data and other environmental
parameters are available from the Bureau of Land Management and
state agencies. Data on municipal developments will be drawn from
population projections developed when social, economic, and
political impacts are assessed and from extrapolations of waste
discharge patterns of communities with similar characteristics
located in the western region.
C. Methods and Procedures
By systematically comparing disposal requirements with
locations and conditions available at the sites, potential sites
and site hazards will be identified. These conditions will be
checked against a number of criteria, including soil stability
and slope, and the availability of locations meeting such economic
criteria as reasonable distance and configuration for dumping or
surface restoration. Initial criteria to be employed for aesthetic
and health reasons, as well as for revegetation potential will be
introduced in this section of the impact analysis. However, more
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detailed analysis of ecological, health, and aesthetic impacts
will be assessed in the sections of impact analysis devoted to
those areas (Sections 4.4, 4.6, and 4.8).
The composition of potential waste or spoils will be reviewed
to the extent that site-specific data are available or to the
extent that historical analogies from similar sites can be made.
This will permit a listing of potential problem compounds.
Movement of materials such as existing salts or compounds
introduced into disposal sites will be made by estimating
potential for percolation through soils of varying permeability.
In cases where only limited data are available, data may be
presented as a rank ordering of comparative movement through
soils, rather than as estimates of actual soil transport rates.
D. Anticipated Results
Most of our results will be descriptions of the relative
adequacy or inadequacy of disposal sites, lists and rankings of
potential problem compounds in the disposed materials, and
descriptions of the movement potential of materials through the
soil media. Results of revegetation problems, health risk and
other higher order consequences will be described in other
relevant sections.
A qualitative assessment, based on climatological conditions
at the site and on reclamation studies of similar wastes in other
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regions, will be prepared. Similarly, evaluation of the higher
order leaching impacts will be based on experiences in other
areas.
E. Data Adequacy
Data on the quantity of solid wastes is more reliable than
data on the composition of residuals. In addition to information
existing in the literature, data on solid waste composition will
be upgraded through direct contact with developers and agencies
investigating solid waste disposal.
F. Research Adequacy
A number of more specific problems relating to solid waste
disposal have been the focus of recent research. In the case of
oil shale development, for example, the Environmental Resources
Center at Colorado State University has completed initial stages
of research on the surface rehabilitation of land disturbances
resulting from oil shale development. In other states, research
has focused on stabilization of disposal sites, although there is
considerable uncertainty still associated with the results.
Prediction of leaching of materials through soils requires
site-specific testing and evaluation. Until this information is
Cook, C. Wayne (1974) Surface Rehabilitation of Land
Disturbances Resulting from Oil Shale Development, Final Report,
Phase 1. Fort Collins, Colo.: Colorado State University,
Environmental Resources Center.
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available for all the sites selected in this analysis, quantitative
results will be inadequately supported.
4.2.4 Noise
A. Introduction
Two types of noise will be evaluated: environmental noise
and occupational noise. Environmental noise is a combination of
noise exposure to all sources of noise in nonjob-related
activities. Occupational noise is that to which an employee is
exposed during his working day as a direct result of his work.
requirements.
These impacts have been addressed by the Occupational Safety
and Health Act of 1969 and the Federal Noise control Act of 1972.
The latter established a national policy "... to promote an
environment for all Americans free from noise that jeopardizes
their health and welfare . . . . " Both laws have been implemented
by the promulgation of rules by responsible federal agencies,
including the established criteria noise levels by EPA. These
criteria have been widely accepted and are being incorporated
into noise regulations being developed by state and local
governments. Consequently, although noise impact analysis will
not receive major emphasis in this TA, selected impacts which are
subject to regulation and which may become issues will be analyzed.
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B. Baseline Data
Data needs include: identification of noise sources and
levels, local and state regulations applicable to the scenarios,
location and size of human and animal populations in relation
to noise sources and levels, and transportation modes and
locations.
Sound pressure level spectra associated with operation of
various equipment such as compressors, pumps, coal-crushers,
conveyor systems, etc., will be required for assessing
plant-generated noise. Other data on transportation activity
such as railway operations will be needed to analyze the impact
of radiated noise from this source.
Analysis of transportation and social, economic, and
political impacts will provide additional and supporting data.
Some ambient air and topographic data will be available from the
scenario descriptions and the air impact analyses.
C. Methods and Procedures
The noise impact analysis will address the effects of noise
associated with the various technologies including: mining,
energy processing, and transportation. The following sections
identify the procedures used to estimate noise levels and describe
criteria used to predict effects.
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1. Estimating Noise Levels
Based upon numerous laboratory and field studies, quantitative
noise level values can be related to effects on humans. Some 20
different measures of noise have been developed and are used in
practice. These measures, based on laboratory and field studies,
make it possible to relate noise levels to effects. A particular
measure is generally adopted to satisfy the specific objectives
of a noise evaluation program.
To assess the impact of noise quantitatively, EPA recommends
the use of the measure L, . This measure accounts for
dn
differences between human response to noise at night and during
the day. Mathematically it is expressed:
(1) Ldn = 10 log
where
L + 10
n
L,/10 10
15 (10 Q ) + 9 (10
dB
(2) L = the long-term equivalent of A-weighted sound levels
eq (24 hours for this TA).
(3) Ld = L for daytime (0700 hours to 2200 hours)
(4) L = L for nighttime (2200 hours to 0700 hours)
il "CJ"
Mathematical explanation of equations is as follows:
L, = day-night level L = night level
L, = day level dB = decibel
d
L = equivalent level
eq
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As shown in this expression, the impact of sound is not the same
during the day and at night. To be equivalent, nighttime levels
must be 10 dB lower. It will be assumed that the noise evaluated
is equal to that exceeded 50 percent of the time.
In this study, noise levels will be predicted using a
simple model that incorporates information on ambient air and
topographic conditions, and the properties of energy dispersion
in air media under these conditions. The results of this model
predict energy levels at selected distances from single or
multiple sources.
Some cases will be studied in detail to ascertain the degree
of expected impact from mining, processing, and transportation.
The results of these studies will be evaluated in terms of the
criteria for assessing noise levels discussed below.
2. Criteria for Noise Level Assessment
In this study, human and wildlife responses to noise will be
2
estimated using EPA documentation. Some of the factors useful
The equivalent sound level for a normal statistical
distribution can be described in terms of its mean value, which
for a normal distribution is the noise level that is exceeded
50 percent of the time (L-.-.) and the standard deviation (S) of
the noise level distribution is L = L5Q + 0.115 S .
2
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Noise Abatement
and Control (1974) Information on Levels of Environmental Noise
Requisite to Protect Public Health and Welfare with an Adequate
Margin of Safety. Washington: Environmental Protection Agency.
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in assessing and describing the effects of predicted noise levels
are presented in the following two subsections.
a. Human Responses: Table 4-3 summarizes noise level
limits in terms of L, and L considered essential
to protect public welfare and safety. Note that
L, = 55 dB and L = 55 dB are values that are
dn eq
representative of most conditions around power plants.
For more detailed characterizations, the EPA "levels"
document will be consulted. This table serves as
the basis for general assessment of environmental
noise as required by, this program. Further refinement
of these can be achieved by considering the factors
discussed below.
TABLE 4-3:
SOUND LEVELS REQUIRED TO PROTECT
PUBLIC HEALTH AND WELFARE
Effect
Level
Area
Hearing loss
Outdoor activity
interference and
annoyance
Indoor activity
interference and
annoyance
L ,„., 170 dB
eq(24)
Jdn
dB
L ,-.. 155 dB
eq(24)
<45 dB
L ,_„,. ^45 dB
eq(24)
All areas
Outdoors in residential
areas and farms and
other outdoor areas
where people spend
widely varying amounts
of time and other
places in which quiet
is a basis for use
Outdoor areas where
people spend limited
amounts of time, such
as school yards,
playgrounds, etc.
Indoor residential
areas
Other indoor areas with
human activities such as
schools, etc.
Source: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Noise Abatement
and Control (1974) Information on Levels of Environmental Noise
Requisite to Protect Public Health and Welfare with an Adequate
Margin of Safety. Washington: Environmental Protection Agency.
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The ability to communicate effectively depends upon the
presence and level of ambient or "masking" noise. The
values of Table 4-4 illustrate the person-to-person
separation that will permit 95 percent speech
intelligibility in the presence of different A-weighted
sound levels and vocal efforts. The data are
representative of male voices with individuals
face-to-face outdoors.
TABLE 4-4: SOUND LEVELS PERMITTING SPEECH COMMUNICATION
Listener
Distance
(feet)
1
2
3
4
5
6
12
Ambient Sound Level for Speech Communication
(Decibels A-Weighted)
Low
Voice
60
54
50
48
46
44
38
Normal
Voice
66
60
56
54
52
50
44
Raised
Voice
72
66
62
60
58
56
50
Very Loud
Voice
78
72
68
66
64
62
56
Source: Tracor, Inc. (1973) Guidelines on Noise.
American Petroleum Institute.
Washington:
Additional evaluation may be made by considering the
effect of noise upon communications by telephone. The
quality of telephone usage in the presence of
steady-state masking noise may be obtained from Table 4-5,
The change in ambient sound level is an important factor
in assessing the impact from added noise sources. It is
possible to just detect a two to three dBA change while
a five dBA is readily apparent. A 10-dB increase is
judged by most people as a doubling of the loudness of
sound and each 10-dB increase impresses a listener as
doubling the loudness.
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TABLE 4-5:
QUALITY OF TELEPHONE USAGE IN THE PRESENCE
OF STEADY-STATE MASKING NOISE
Noise Level
(dBA) *
30 to 50
50 to 65
65 to 75
Above 75
Telephone Usage
Satisfactory
Slightly Difficult
Difficult
Unsatisfactory
decibels A-weighted
Source: Tracer, Inc. (1973) Guidelines on Noise.
Washington: American Petroleum Institute.
b. Wildlife Responses: The effects of noise upon wildlife
and domestic animals are not well understood. Studies
of animals subjected to varying noise exposures in
laboratories have demonstrated physiological and
behavioral changes and it may be assumed that these
reactions are applicable to wildlife. However, no
scientific evidence currently correlates the two.
It is known that large animals adapt quite readily to
high sound levels. Conversely, it has been demonstrated
that loud noise disrupts broodiness in poultry and
consequently can affect egg population.
The major effect of noise on wildlife is related to
the use of auditory signals. Acoustic signals are
important for survival in some wildlife species.
Probably the most important effect is related to the
prey-predator situation. The effectiveness of an
animal that relies on its ears to locate prey and that
of an animal that relies on its ears to detect predators
are both impaired by intruding noise.
In addition, the reception of auditory mating signals
could be limited and, therefore, affect reproduction.
Distress or warning signals from mother animals to
infants (or vice versa) or within groups of social
animals could be masked and possibly lead to increased
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mortality. There are clues that short-term high noise
level may startle wild game birds and stop the brooding
cycle for an entire season.
D. Anticipated Results
Results will be presented in simple terms, based on L, for
environmental noise and A-weighted sound for occupational noise.
These results will be interpreted in reference to applicable
federal, state, and local regulations. As shown in Figure 4-1,
results of predicted noise levels can be related to expected
human response.
E. Data Adequacy
Noise technology is developing rapidly, both in regulation
development and noise assessment methodologies. Contact will be
maintained with EPA's Office of Noise Abatement and Control, the
Department of Labor, the Bureau of Mines, and federal agencies
with noise responsibilities to insure that the analyses made in
this TA are based on the best available data.
Approximate acoustical emissions in terms of frequency and
character from mining, processing, and transportation elements
are likely to be difficult to identify and acquire. Manufacturers
of such systems will be contacted in efforts to obtain the
necessary noise descriptions. Where data are not available,
extrapolations based on data for similar equipment will be made.
-------
60-r
percent
highly
annoyed
50-
40-
30- -
20--
10--
4-64
Vigorous
''Community Reaction
Widespread Complaints
'and Threats of Legal Action
.Sporadic _Compl aj'jits
Little or No Reaction
50 55 60 65 70 75 80
day-night average noise, Ldn, in dB
Figure 4-1: Expected Day-Night Human Responses
at Various Noise Levels
Source: Crocker, Malcolm T., and A. John Price (1975)
Noise and Noise Control. Cleveland: CRC Press, 2 vols,
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F. Research Adequacy
Certain simplifications and fundamental methodologies for
assessing the noise impacts are developed and available. However,
additional research is required for assessing the increase of
community noise levels as functions of growth of a community.
Population increases in development areas will cause a
corresponding increase in noise levels. The character and degree
of impact on community noise levels as a function of population
is currently under study by EPA's Office of Noise Abatement and
Control. When available, results of this research will provide
the basis against which to predict changes in community noise
fields.
4.3 RESOURCE AVAILABILITY
'-L.
Western energy development is taking place during a period
of increased competition for a wide range of resources, including
water, land, transportation, materials, personnel, and financial
resources. The consumption or change in the availability of
these resources due to energy development can produce major
impacts. Descriptions of changes in resource availability will
provide information needed in impact analyses in a number of
categories, especially the ecological, social, economic, and
political analyses. The following sections describe the general
approach that the research team will use in providing data for
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these analyses and helping identify and define resource
availability issues.
4.3.1 Water
A. Introduction
The results of an assessment of changes in surface and
groundwater availability will be an essential for ecological,
social, economic, political, and policy analysis. Water is an
especially crucial resource because of: (1) process water
requirements of many of the technologies; (2) water compacts,
either existing or being negotiated, which have influenced the
balance of power between localities, states, and larger areas;
and (3) rapidly diminishing groundwater supplies in some parts
2
of the West.
The parameters used in this analysis to identify local and
regional water availability issues, both those already identified
and those which might be identified by this TA, are as listed.
Available water is defined for purposes of this study to
mean water that is physically available. The question of whether
water is legally available will be addressed only generally except
at selected sites and areas.
2
Hundley, Norris Jr. (1975) Water and the West: The Colorado
River Compact and the Politics of Water in the American West.
Berkeley: University of California Press.
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1. Ambient Conditions (Surface Water)
a. flow
b. depletions
c. return flows
2. Present and Projected Water Needs
a. municipal
b. industrial
c. agricultural
d. energy
3. Future Watershed Management
a. planned flow regulation and storage
b. reallocation of presently allocated water
c. state water plans
d. changes in surface water flow as a consequence of
energy developments
4. Groundwater Sources
a. existing data on location, extent, reliability,
and flow
b. adaptability of water to conjunctive use
c. changes in flow and recharge from energy use
The analysis of water availability will be primarily
concerned with two topics: instream flow and process needs.
The analysis of instream flow will consist of both a baseline
description of the existing conditions and an analysis of the
flow changes caused by scenario developments. A discussion of
the instream flow requirements for aquatic biota will also be a
part of this analysis. This latter discussion is especially
applicable in states such as Montana, where the Montana Water Use
Act of 1973 permits water to be reserved for instream flow.
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Analysis will be made at two levels. First, at the
site-specific level, a conceptual scheme will be presented to
supply water to the particular process or group of processes under
consideration. This may include aqueducts, pipelines, and
possibly new storage reservoirs; or perhaps as little as an
intake structure in the near vicinity of the plant. At this
level of analysis, no specific attempt will be made to draw a
connection between the site-specific scenario under investigation
and other possible developments, either upstream or downstream.
A second level of analysis will address an aggregate level
of development where several scenarios will interact and compete
for the available water. Where possible, higher order water
requirements for municipalities, agriculture and secondary
industry will also be analyzed in the evaluation of water impacts.
Water laws and compacts will be addressed, as they create
restrictions on water availability, either in an absolute or
distributive sense. Water availability restrictions will also
include such issues as the instream need to support aquatic biota
or to maintain wild and scenic rivers, and to sustain the
assimilative capacity of the watercourse to accept waste streams.
Anderson, Mark H., and others (1973) The Demand for
Agricultural Water in Utah. Logan, Utah: Utah State University,
Utah Water Research Laboratory.
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B. Baseline Data
Data needs for the site-specific scenarios include data on
the natural stream flows, groundwater resources, and process
water requirements for the scenarios, as well as water
requirements associated with the increase in population.
Aggregated scenarios require, in addition, data on water
requirements for the expansion of agriculture and the development
of related secondary industries.
Baseline data will generally be presented as ranges, both
with relation to stream flow and water requirements. To decrease
the complexity associated with an analysis involving large
numbers of approximate variables, a base case will be analyzed
where the water requirements of the site-specific scenarios
will be varied only with respect to construction requirements
and operational requirements as they apply to the different
processes under consideration. (Process water requirements will
be determined for each scenario, drawing on data included in the
various ERDS.)
Following this base case analysis, a sensitivity analysis
will be made addressing variations in process water needs. As
an example, the base case for a power plant cooling system assumes
a wet, mechanical draft cooling tower. Alternatives to this
cooling system include cooling ponds (modified once-through
cooling) , wet towers utilizing natural draft, dry cooling towers
Once through cooling is no longer allowed by law except
in the case of a Section 316(a) exemption to 40 CFR 122.
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(no evaporative loss, heat transfer from air blown over tubes),
and wet-dry towers (a combination of wet and dry configurations).
These alternatives would each have a different effect on the
water requirements of the power plant cooling system (the largest
water consuming system in a conventional coal-fired, steam-electric
power plant). Similarly, alternative internal water use schemes
will be investigated for other processes included in the scenarios;
and a water-use sensitivity analysis will be performed.
Additionally, some of the more obvious changing water needs,
such as water requirements for reclamation, will be varied
seasonally or as otherwise appropriate. Instream water flow rates
will be obtained from the existing literature, including the
standard USGS Surface Water Records and the results of previous
studies concerned with water availability determinations. The
combination of these two sets of data (process requirements and
in-stream flow) will indicate critical areas in water availability.
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (1975)
Westwide Study Report on Critical Water Problems Facing the
Eleven Western States; and Department of the Interior, Water for
Energy Management Team (January 1975) Report on Water for Energy
in the Northern Great Plains Area with Emphasis on the Yellowstone
River Basin; and Department of the Interior, Water for Energy
Management Team (1974) Report on Water for Energy in the Upper
Colorado River Basin; and Northern Great Plains Resources Program,
Water Work Group (1974) Water Work Group Report. Denver:
Northern Great Plains Resources Program.
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C. Methods and Procedures
Possible water sources will be determined for the
site-specific scenarios. These can be surface water, groundwater,
or both. The impact on these sources as a consequence of meeting
process water requirements for the postulated development will be
determined. Whenever possible, the entire site-specific scenario
will be modeled as though it places a single water demand on the
hydrologic system. There will be several constraints on the
water supply system that may affect the availability of water for
use in the scenarios. These competing demands will be in the
form of other user requirements as expressed by existing water
rights, as well as more undefined demands such as instream needs
for aquatic biota and for the maintenance of wild and scenic
rivers. These water use constraints will generally be identified
in the analysis of the three aggregate scenarios.
Generally, the analysis of water availability at the
site-specific level will consist of hand calculations relating
a variety of localized flow parameters such as the seven day-
ten year low flow, minimum flow, average flow, and the yearly
flow pattern to the site-specific water requirements. In some
cases, there will not be sufficient existing data to extract
these values. A detailed watershed analysis might have to be
performed to obtain these data. If this situation develops
during the first year study, a more detailed watershed analysis
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might possibly be completed in the second and third years.
However, this TA is not intended to include extensive field
research.
Efforts will be made to compile and present available
information related to groundwater availability in both the
UCRB and UMRB. This potential water supply source is the focus
of several current studies (for example, by the Old West Regional
Commission, Peabody Coal Company, the Surface Environment and
Mining [SEAM] Program, USGS, EPA, Health, Education and Welfare,
Bureau of Land Management, Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology,
the Office of the Wyoming State Engineer, South Dakota Geological
Survey, and Western Energy Company) and may be of significance
to western energy resource development. The interbasin transfer
of water will also be discussed, along with the effect of river
basin compacts on state allocation values of local water.
At the aggregate analysis level, there are existing numerical
models that have been developed for the river basins under
consideration. When of significant benefit to the TA to have
unique computer analyses performed, an effort will be made to
utilize these models in cooperation with developers. The
following descriptions provide more specific information about
numerical models that might be used within the two river basin
areas:
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1. Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB)
a. Existing Programs
(1) HYD-2, Generalized Computer Reservoir Operation
Studies.1 This computer program was developed
by the Bureau of Reclamation and incorporates
the instream water needs criteria of the Bureau
of Sports Fisheries, and Wildlife. The model
uses streamflow data and user requirements as
input and adjusts runoff to obtain upstream
effects on water availability. The Northern
Great Plains Resource Program used this program.
(2) EDP Program 724 C0100, Missouri River Main
Stem Reservoirs Long-Range Regulation Studies,
Corps of Engineers.2 This program models the
management of the six main stem reservoirs on
the Missouri River. The operation of
tributary reservoirs is not considered, but
must be taken into account in the program input.
This program has previously been used by the
Corps to predict water flow impacts associated
with different levels of energy development
activity.3 The program operates on monthly
average values for both streamflow and
reservoir releases from the six main stem
reservoirs: Fort Peck, Sakakawea, Oahe,
Sharpe, Francis Case, and Lewis and Clark.
Northern Great Plains Resource Program, Water Work Group
(1974) Water Work Group Report. Denver: Northern Great Plains
Resource Program.
2
Department of Defense, Army, Corps of Engineers, Missouri
River Division (n.d.) Misspuri River Main Stem Reservoirs Long
Range Regulation Studies. Omaha, Neb.: Corps of Engineers,
Missouri River Division.
Department of Defense, Army, Corps of Engineers, Missouri
River Division (1974) Missouri River Main Stem Reservoir
Regulation Studies, Series 1-74. Omaha, Neb.: Corps of Engineers,
Missouri River Division.
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b. Programs Under Development
(1) Montana State University is currently
developing a water model of the Yellowstone
River Basin that will have some water flow
modeling capabilities.1
(2) The Department of Natural Resources, State of
Montana, is currently developing a flow model
of the Yellowstone River Basin. As noted in
the water quality discussions, the model is
expected to be calibrated beginning 1 January,
1976 and should be available for basin
simulations by 1 July, 1976.
2. Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB)
a. The Bureau of Reclamation has several models of
the Upper Colorado.2 Principal among these are:
(1) The Colorado River Storage Project Model (CRSP)
is used primarily for preparing monthly
operating plans for the existing system, and
secondarily for assessment of future water
requirements for planning purposes.
The CRSP Model is limited because it is designed
as an operations model. It will not describe
individual project effects on tributaries to
the main stem Colorado River; however, it will
show their downstream effects. It is neither
convenient nor practical to add new features
or additional parameters to the model.
(2) The Colorado River Simulation Model (CRSM)
is a more comprehensive model being developed
for use on a wide range of problems in the
planning, utilization, and management of
Colorado River water resources. It is
described more fully in Section 4.2.2.
Van Voast, Wayne A., and others (n.d.) Strip Coal Mining and
Mined Land Reclamation in the Hydrologic System, Research
Proposal. Billings, Mont.: Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology.
2Huntley, Charles W. (1975) "Hydrologic Models Used in the
Colorado River Basin." Presented at the U.S.-U.S.S.R. Group,
Planning, Utilization and Management of Water Resources, Dec. 8-9.
Unpublished paper, Denver, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
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(3) The Return Flow Prediction Model is a
comprehensive tool for predicting quantity
and quality. This model was also described
in the section on water quality impacts.
b. Several hydro-salinity models are available
including the Hydro-Salinity Model of Utah State
University^ and the University of Colorado
Hydro-Salinity Model.3 The University of Colorado
model is a digital computer adaptation and extension
of an analog computer model developed by M. Leon
Hyatt and others at Utah State University.
Both of these models address flow and salinity.
They are described in the water quality impacts
analysis section.
c. The CORSIM Project has developed a computerized
numerical model which relates flow and water
rights.^ The project has been funded by ten oil
companies, three water districts, two utilities,
and one industry to identify water availability
under critical flow conditions and high water
demand. When water becomes so scarce that the
water use structure changes from casual use to
strict adherence to issued water rights, the
availability patterns may also change.
Shaffer, Marvin J., and Richard W. Ribbens (October 1974)
Generalized Description of a Return Flow Quality Simulation
Mode1. Denver: Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation,
Engineering and Research Center.
2
Hyatt, M. Leon, and others (1970) Computer Simulation of
the Hydrologic-Salinity Flow System within the Upper Colorado
River Basin. Logan, Utah: Utah State University, Utah Water
Research Laboratory.
Howe, Charles W. (1975) Primary and Secondary Impacts of
Energy Development in the Gunnison River Area, the Hydro-Salinity
Model Appendix, Draft Report. Boulder, Colo.: University of
Colorado.
Fleming, David E. (November 1975) "The CORSIM Project."
Presented at Annual Meeting of the American Society of Civil
Engineers, Denver, Colo.
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D. Anticipated Results
The water availability study will use the site-specific and
aggregate scenarios as tools to help identify and define issues
related to water as a physical resource. The intermediate
analyses which lead to the identification of issues produce
several outputs, among which are:
1. Graphs which indicate flow relationships at specific
locations within the river basins;
2. Tables that indicate the use of water upstream of the
locations analyzed in 1 above.
3. A discussion of the legal and social controls that
affect the allocation and use of water;
4. Schemes for meeting water demands in the various
energy development areas;
5. An identification of the water-related impacts associated
with the supply of water;
6. An evaluation of the impacts identified as a result of
all of the above steps; and
7. A sensitivity analysis relating process water requirements
(internal water reuse analysis) to environmental effects.
These intermediate outputs will then be discussed in the
context of the issues that are raised either by the analysis or
through contact with the people in the western area. The
identification of issues related to water availability will
provide input into the policy analysis of the alternative actions
available to the decisionmaking process.
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E. Data Adequacy
The base data that will be used to provide some of the
intermediate outputs of this analysis will come from a variety
of sources, which include the U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of
Reclamation, Corps of Engineers, state geological survey offices,
and state water resources offices.
Data collected from the above sources has been compiled in
a form similar to some of the proposed intermediate outputs of
this study by several organizations, including those mentioned
above. These previous data compilations and analyses will
provide an adequate information base for some of the scenarios
used in this TA. However, in some cases, the data available
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (1975)
Westwide Study Report on Critical Water Problems Facing the
Eleven Western States; Department of the Interior, Water for
Energy Management Team (1974) Report on Water for Energy in the
Upper Colorado River Basin; Northern Great Plains Resources
Program, Water Work Group (1974) Water Work Group Report.
Denver: Northern Great Plains Resources Program; Federal Energy
Administration (1974) Project Independence Blueprint; Final Task
Force Report: Water Requirements, Availabilities, Constraints,
and Recommended Federal Actions, prepared by the Water Resources
Council. Washington: Government Printing Office; National
Petroleum Council, Committee on U.S. Energy Outlook, Other
Energy Resources Subcommittee, Water Availability Task Group
(1973) U.S. Energy Outlook: Water Availability. Washington:
National Petroleum Council; Davis, George H., and Leonard A.
Wood (1974) Water Demands for Expanding Energy Development, U.S.
Geological Survey Circular 703. Reston, Va.: U.S. Geological
Survey; Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Management
Team (January 1975) Report on Water for Energy in the Northern
Great Plains Area with Emphasis on the Yellowstone River Basin;
and Western States Water Council (1974) Western States Water
Requirements for Energy Development to 1990. Salt Lake City:
Western States Water Council.
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will not be as pertinent to this TA as would be desired. In these
cases, data shortages will be indicated within the TA. The
importance of water data related to western energy development
has been recognized by federal, state, and private groups. The
activities of these organizations should insure that current
data shortages are reduced either with respect to water as a
resource or with respect to the requirements of the new
technologies.
F. Research Adequacy
Water has been identified as one of the more significant
issues concerning energy resources development in the West. The
continued emphasis on water-related problems in the western states
will insure that additional research is conducted in this area.
Since 1970, a number of major inputs have been made into the
understanding of western water problems. Currently, in the UMRB,
11 projects have been identified related to surface water flow
and 24 related to groundwater. Similar research projects are
being identified for the UCRB. EPA's Region VIII office has at
least 18 research projects underway in various states related to
water problems and energy development. One EPA headquarters
request for proposal has been identified in the strict water
Old West Regional Commission and Department of Agriculture,
Forest Service (1975) Energy Research Information Service (ERIS))
Quarterly Report 1 (November).
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availability area. Most current research is identifying problems
associated with various stages of western energy development.
Each of these studies independently defines the relationship of
energy or water demand to time. It is unknown at this time
whether these various data bases can be combined and used, either
in a valid comparison or in a compilation of predictive data.
The research outlined above would seem to greatly reduce
present data deficiencies for this TA; however, until the outputs
of these studies can be evaluated, it is difficult to say that
the goal of the research will be achieved. Therefore, although
some areas of current data deficiency, such as groundwater resource
evaluations, are being researched, until those studies are made
available it would be premature to say that the total research
need has been fulfilled. Specific research needs will be
identified as the TA progresses.
4.3.2 Land Consumption
A. Introduction
In the first year TA, the analysis of land as a resource
that will be consumed during energy development will emphasize
the identification of lands that are available for development
Environmental Protection Agency (1975) "Optimizing Wet/Dry
Cooling Towers for Water Conservation and Plume Abatement,"
Request for Proposal CI75-0145. Contractor: United Engineers
and Construction, Inc., Philadelphia.
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and their adequacy and suitability for meeting development needs,
These latter considerations include, in addition to the energy
developments themselves, the lands that will be required to
support population increases and secondary industrial and
commercial development within the region.
B. Baseline Data
A baseline of land use and ownership data from the early
1970"s will be used. In part, the availability of data dictates
this choice, since the most recent regionwide land use maps,
such as those used in the Missouri, Upper and Lower Colorado
2
Comprehensive Framework Studies, were published during those
years. Moreover, the exploitation of energy resources had not
reached a significant level in most regions during this period.
Lands committed to energy resource development during or prior
to this period will be considered part of the existing baseline.
Land use as an impact category is discussed in the social,
economic, and political impacts section of this chapter.
Section 6.4, the ecological impacts section, includes a
discussion of land consumption impacts which have ecological
consequences. .
2
Missouri River Basin Interagency Committee (1971)
Comprehensive Framework Study, Missouri River Basin; Upper
Colorado Region State-Federal Interagency Group(1971) Upper
Colorado Region, Comprehensive Framework Study; and Pacific
Southwest Interagency Committee, Lower Colorado Region
State-Federal Interagency Group (1971) Lower Colorado Region
Comprehensive Framework Study.
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In compiling the data base, predictions of land requirements
will include planned or announced energy-related developments,
as well as related projects such as the extension of irrigation
systems. Urban and suburban land consumption will be projected,
based on cumulative population growth estimates made in the
section on social, economic, and political impacts.
C. Methods and Procedures
The major tasks involved in this analysis are to identify
and quantify present and projected land requirements, determine
what lands are available, and to assess their suitability.
Designations will include land ownership and will indicate lands
used for:
Energy resource development
Secondary industrial and commercial development
Urban or residential development
Pasture, cropland, and recreation
Wildlife habitat or barren lands
Maps are to be prepared for both the site-specific and
regional scenarios.
A certain amount of geographic focus may be supplied by a
preliminary survey of the suitability of land for different
purposes. This survey will note flood plains, ecologically
sensitive areas, restricted government lands, and any other areas
where extreme social pressure, laws, or regulations would prohibit
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facilities construction. Thus, it may be possible at the local
level to present maps illustrating the major outlines of land use
during the 1980's and 1990's. Due to the sparsely settled nature
of the West, mapping by elimination will be employed. Land
restricted from use will be blocked out.
D. Anticipated Results
The product of the land availability analyses will relate
land requirements to land availability both for the site-specific
and aggregated scenarios. This will help identify those sites
or areas where issues are likely to arise because of
(1) environmental sensitivity; (2) state and federal parks,
forests, nature preserves, etc; and (3) flood plains.
E. Data Adequacy
Input data for this part of the TA will come largely from
existing planning documents. The river basin framework plans
contain existing land use maps and discussions at the level of
the subbasin. Included in these plans are anticipated changes
in land commitments and the capabilities of lands to accommodate
Missouri River Basin Interagency Committee (1971)
Comprehensive Framework Studyf Missouri River Basin; Upper
Colorado Region State-Federal Interagency Group (1971) Upper
Colorado Region, Comprehensive Framework Study; and Pacific
Southwest Interagency Committee, Lower Colorado Region
State-Federal Interagency Group (1971) Lower Colorado Region
Comprehensive Framework Study.
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certain types of uses. These plans have often been made without
taking into account the levels of energy development now
envisioned. However, they provide the best regionwide predictions
of changes in nonenergy-related land use and availability.
In many areas, state and federal level land use plans
disaggregated to a more local scale are available. The Bureau of
Land Management makes comprehensive management plans for the lands
under their jurisdiction at the district and unit level. Land
use plans have also been developed for some national forests.
State parks and recreation departments also have their own plans,
as do many counties (for example, Washington County, Utah) and
towns (for example, Farmington, New Mexico).
F. Research Adequacy
Development patterns can be predicted with somewhat more
accuracy where zoning is indicated in city or county development
plans. Unfortunately, not much of this type of analysis is
appropriate to the scenarios in this TA. The difficulty with
integrating existing outlooks and forecasts lies in the fact that
they represent assumptions not used in this study.
Additional efforts are needed in this area. Programmatic
and regional environmental impact statements are one example of
the types of studies that can be used to compile the required
data and to do the kinds of analyses that are needed to inform
this TA.
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4.3.3 Transportation
A. Introduction
The adequacy of existing transportation systems for moving
energy, materials, and equipment for energy resource development
is already being discussed as a major issue. Transportation
needs also define important variables that must be taken into
consideration in assessing ecological, social, economic, and
political impacts. For example, issues have either already been
identified or are likely to arise in connection with slurry
pipelines, subsidizing some modes of transportation, and
environmental and aesthetic impacts, particularly those required
for electrical transmission corridors.
The analyses of transportation availability impacts will
utilize a variety of parameters to assess the new demands on
transportation systems, including:
1. capacity of existing transportation facilities;
2. routes of existing facilities;
3. state of repair and maintenance of existing facilities;
and
4. availability of equipment to meet transportation demand.
The major transportation carriers under consideration include
pipelines (liquid, gas, and coal slurry), high-voltage electrical
National Academy of Engineering, Task Force on Energy
(1974) U.S. Energy Prospects; An Engineering Viewpoint.
Washington: National Academy of Sciences.
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transmission lines, and coal rail transport. Although it is
recognized that existing transportation facilities are probably
inadequate for projected western energy exports, they are the
most likely means for expeditiously and economically transporting
much of this increased production.
B. Baseline Data
Existing transportation facilities in the western energy
resource states will be identified and described. Emphasis will
be placed on both the transportation links located in the western
states and interconnecting links which facilitate supply to the
nation's demand centers. Specific data requirements include:
1. routes and geographical proximity to projected energy
development sites;
2. current and projected utilization;
3. capacity (for example, tonnage for railroads) or
throughput (for example, barrels per day for liquid
pipelines);
4. potential for tie-in via lateral lines; and
5. present condition (that is, how well maintained are
they).
Requirements for facilities to transport energy in various
forms from the West to consumption centers outside the West will
be determined for the aggregated scenarios using the energy models
described in Chapter 3. These transportation facility requirements
will be filled by a combination of existing systems (where
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possible) and new facilities. An examination of existing
transport locations and types of facilities v/ill provide data on
the extent to •which they can "be used. Utilization of existing
facilities will almost certainly require pipeline laterals or
feeders and railroad spurs with track upgrading. Since long
distance electrical transmission lines are constructed to transmit
electricity from a specific plant, new electrical transmission
corridors will generally be required to transmit electricity
from projected developments.
C. Methods and Procedures
The transportation analysis will include three tasks:
1. determination of western transportation requirements
as specified from the scenarios;
2. specification of required new transportation
facilities; and
3. identification of certain impacts associated with new
transportation facilities.
Requirements for new transportation facilities will be
identified by comparing existing facilities identified in
obtaining baseline data and projected needs. Requirements for
these new facilities will be delineated in terms of length of
new tracks, pipelines, and transmission lines, and land
availability.
Other impacts or requirements of interest will be identified
by quantifying facilities needed for additional capacity. For
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example, what is the number of new rail cars required to carry
the coal tonnage and how does this compare with rail car production
capacity? What are total steel requirements and how do they
compare with the industry's production capacity? What are the
total land requirements for new transportation facilities?
D. Anticipated Results
Descriptions of potential requirements for transportation
facilities will be by transportation mode categories and appropriate
units such as hopper cars, miles of transmission lines, rails or
pipe, rights-of-way, land consumption, and the magnitude of these
requirements will be compared against current production and
potential future production efforts. Where appropriate, maps
will indicate new requirements in the transportation system.
Aesthetic impacts of electrical transmission lines, noise impacts
from increased rail traffic, and other specific impacts will also
be presented. These results, together with the results of
economic analysis, will support the analysis of resource
availability as a potentially major policy issue.
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E. Data Adequacy
Data sources will include recently conducted national surveys
on transportation networks and also, where available, information
from the individual agencies or companies presently managing this
system. Major data sources include: the Department of Transportation;
the Department of the Interior; the Federal Power Commission; the
National Petroleum Council; the American Gas Association; the
Edison Electric Institute, and the U.S. Railway Association, as
well as trade journals.
Although some data have been obtained, it is not now known
whether sufficient data will be available to detail the existing
transportation conditions.
F. Research Adequacy
Although transportation is recognized to be an important
aspect of energy supply to demand centers, it appears at the
present time that little effort has been made (except for the
Project Independence Study) to analyze requirements commensurate
with the western energy resources development. Thus, the
transportation issue can be identified as one for which additional
research efforts should be expended.
Since transportation costs can represent a significant portion
of energy prices, a comparative economic study of alternate
transport mode costs for specific routes emanating from the western
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region would supply useful information for policy analysis. An
extension of this analysis would be a linear programming analysis
which minimizes transport cost of energy out of the western
1
region.
4.3.4 Materials and Equipment
A. Introduction
A variety of materials and equipment are required as input
for the scenarios. For example, one anticipated material
requirement is the amount of steel required for plant construction.
It is conceivable that the amount of steel required will be a
significant portion of the nation's steel output. Western energy
development, therefore, would compete with other sectors for
available steel. This might slow down deliveries, drive up prices,
and lead to an expansion of steelmaking capacity. The demand for
these inputs will be discussed and the direct impact of these
demands on the available market will be analyzed. Secondary
impacts such as energy requirements to produce the required steel
will only be discussed qualitatively. The total analysis will
have a direct relationship with scheduling the construction and
operation of new facilities. In order for this TA to reflect a
realistic scheme for western energy development, an analysis of
Both are beyond the scope of work for the TA, but are being
considered among the supporting projects to be funded by EPA.
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the supply of the necessary tools for that development must be
made.
B. Baseline Data
The variety of materials and equipment required are specified
in the scenario descriptions and ERDS data base. Inventories and
production capacity data will be gathered from national economic
data bases to include relevant production categories. Where
available more specific data will be obtained from local sources.
The Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) data base
also contains information on materials availability. Some major
categories of baseline data are indicated in Table 4-6.
C. Methods and Procedures
Material and equipment input resources will be itemized and
the number of individual items and required delivery times will
be estimated. From this compilation a comparison can be made with
supply inventories in local, regional and national markets. A
further analysis would indicate the extent of the competition for
these items and the impacts that this competition would have on
the projected development times. An important input into this
Booz, Allen and Hamilton, Inc. (1975) Strategic Environmental
Assessment System. Developed under Environmental Protection Agency
Contract No. 68-01-2942 by Booz, Allen and Hamilton, Inc., Bethesda,
Md.
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TABLE 4-6: SELECTED MAJOR MATERIALS AND EQUIPMENT
RESOURCES REQUIRED FOR CONSTRUCTION OF
ENERGY FACILITIES
Resource
Units
Refined products
Cement
Ready-mixed concrete
Pipe and tubing:
Less than 24-inch diameter
24-inch diameter and greater
Oil country tubular goods
Steel forgings
Iron and steel castings
Structural steel
Rebar
Valves—24-inch diameter and greater
Valves—24-inch diameter and greater
Steam turbogenerator sets
Steam turbines without generators
Gas turbogenerator sets
Gas turbines without generators
Draglines
Draglines
Drill rigs
Pumps and drivers—greater than
100 horsepower
Pumps and drivers—greater than
100 horsepower
Compressors and drivers—greater
than 1,000 horsepower
Compressors and drivers--greater
than 1,000 horsepower
Heat exchangers
Pressure vessels—greater than
1-1/2 inch plate
Boilers
Tons
Tons
Tons
Tons
Tons
Tons
Tons
Tons
Tons
Tons
Units
Tons
1,000 horsepower
1,000 horsepower
1,000 horsepower
1,000 horsepower
Cubic yards
Tons
Item-years
Items
Tons
Items
Tons
1,000 foot surface
Tons
Million-Btu per hour
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total analysis process will be results of a unified numerical
model developed by Bechtel. The results obtained using Energy
Supply Planning Model will provide valuable assistance in
scheduling equipment requirements.
D. Anticipated Results
The major materials and equipment input items for the patterns
of development included in our scenarios will be identified and
evaluated as to their availability in light of the demands for
similar input requirements by other activities. Among the items
that will be considered are the materials (and equipment) for:
1. exploration (drill rigs);
2. construction (cranes, welding machines,
earth-moving equipment, draglines, etc.);
3. processing facilities (see Table 4-6); and
4. operating supplies (catalysts, chemicals,
maintenance materials, etc.).
Carasso, M., J.M. Gallagher, K.J. Sharma, J.R. Gayle, and R.
Barany (1975) The Energy Supply Planning Model. San Francisco:
Bechtel Corporation.
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E. Data Adequacy
Sources of information include published reports of material
and equipment required by prospective plant owners for the
processes included in the scenarios, by the ERDS and also by major
engineering and construction contractors such as C.F. Braun and
Company. Recently published generalized reports are expected to
provide updated lists periodically. In addition, specific
individual plant data are sometimes available.
F. Research Adequacy
Research on equipment and material availability has been
2
limited. Some requirements areas have not been addressed. The
existing capacity and potential for increasing capacity of equipment
and materials suppliers is not well known. The market structure
is world wide, but limited in the number of participants, both as
buyers and sellers. How this system responds to new participants,
or increased demand for products is poorly understood. The
important questions of whether increased production is possible,
Howell, Richard D. (1974) "Mechanical Design Considerations
in Commercial Scale Coal Gasification Plants," in Proceedings of
Sixth Synthetic Pipeline Gas Symposium, Chicago, October 28-30.
Washington: American Gas Association.
2
Federal Energy Administration (1974) Project Independence
Blueprint; Final Task Force Report: Availabilities, Requirements,
and Constraints on Materials, Equipment, and Construction.
Washington: Government Printing Office.
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and what conditions must be satisfied for it to occur, need to be
addressed.
4.3.5 Personnel Availability
A. Introduction
Personnel availability impact analyses will examine the labor
requirements for development of energy resources. Impacts to be
addressed include those which fall on locally recruited workers,
local people not directly recruited, immigrants, and labor unions.
All of these impacts are either already or potentially the source
of policy issues that will affect western energy development.
B. Baseline Data
Baseline data on personnel requirements are compiled in the
scenario and ERDS descriptions. As stated in Section 3.2, these
data are derived from several published sources, including two
2 3
products of S&PP and Radian. Others were independently produced.
The Bechtel model discussed in the previous section is expected
to be a particularly important data source for the personnel
analysis.
There are numerous overlaps between the impacts to be
discussed in this section and in the social, economic, and
political impacts section. The results from these overlapping
analyses will be combined in policy analysis.
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C. Methods and Procedures
The availability of labor with the required skills to develop
energy resources will be investigated both in an absolute sense
and for the identification of labor shortages and bottlenecks.
Basically, the input requirements will specify categories such as
engineer (chemical, civil, mechanical), skill (welder, ironworker,
carpenter), and function (production, supervisory), as well as
separating development phases (construction, operation).
Personnel can either be recruited locally or imported. This
difference, which is of importance in the analysis of
socioeconomic impacts, can be addressed by examining current
occupational and industrial patterns in the various areas,
comparing them with projected needs, and projecting potential
shortages of skilled personnel. Such shortages can be filled by
training local people and/or recruiting from other regions.
Local recruiting is utilized most extensively when lease
terms or other contractual obligations require it. This has
occurred, for example, when energy companies have had to seek
2
University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program
(1975) Energy Alternatives; A Comparative Analysis. Washington:
Government Printing Office; and Radian Corporation (1975)
A Western Regional Energy Development Study. Austin, Texas:
Radian Corporation, 3 vols.
3
Council on Environmental Quality (1975) MERES and the
Evaluation of Energy Alternatives. Washington: Government
Printing Office; and Carasso, M., J.M. Gallagher, K.J. Sharma,
J.R. Gayle, and R. Barany (1975) The Energy Supply Planning
Model. San Francisco: Bechtel Corporation, 2 vols.
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mining leases for resources underlying Indian reservations.
Although these negotiations cannot be accurately predicted; the
political conditions at each of the scenario sites will be examined
to estimate the likelihood of local-recruitment clauses.
Assuming that developers use extensive local recruitment,
questions remain as to the productivity of recruited workers, and
the costs of such programs. This can only be determined by
experience. Therefore, experience on rapidly developed energy
sites and their labor forces will be examined.
Another local effect is a general inflation of wages. Likely
wage scales will be compared with prevailing rates. If these
diverge substantially, economic theory predicts a pattern of
temporary and permanent wage and price impacts. These conclusions
will be logically derived, then checked against the experience of
2
previous boom towns.
When considering inter-regional migration, a national
perspective will be assumed. At this point the labor demands of
See for example, Burchival, Carrol. "Demonstration Program
for Serving the Occupational Needs of Emerging and Expanding
Business and Industry in North Dakota." On-going study sponsored
by the Old West Regional Commission.
2
Gilmore, J.S., and M.K. Duff (1974) A Growth. Management Case
Study; Sweetwater County, Wyoming. Denver: University of Denver
Research Institute; and Institute for Social Science Research (1974)
A Comparative Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the Way
of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and
Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.: University of Montana,
Institute for Social Science Research.
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all western energy projects will be aggregated and compared with
national labor supplies for the various occupational groups. The
availability of skilled workers willing to migrate to western
energy sites will depend on a number of factors, for example:
offered wages, wages in other employments, regional unemployment
rates, workers' age distributions, educational attainment, and
ethnic or cultural traditions. A number of manpower forecasts
will be evaluated critically and the results synthesized. In
a less quantitative manner, the national communication channels
by which jobs and workers are matched will be investigated
primarily through industry and union publications and personal
interviews.
Equally as important to the number of workers will be their
demographic and social characteristics. The distinction between
construction (essentially temporary) and operation personnel will
be particularly crucial and an attempt will be made to determine
whether these populations differ in any significant ways. There
may, for example, be a class of workers who spend their careers in
a series of temporary projects. Worker-profile studies have been
done on both well-established and rapidly-expanded western energy
Pennsylvania State University, institute for Research on
Human Resources (1973) Demand and Supply of Manpower in the
Bituminous Coal Industry for the Years 1985 and 2000. Springfield,
Va.: National Technical Information Service.
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projects. By comparing and contrasting these, it may be possible
to generalize about a community's development.
Obviously, unions may also play a critical role in facilitating
the timely completion of projects. Although no formal tools exist
for confidently predicting the course of bargaining situations, it
will be important to determine whether no-strike agreements are
likely on these projects (as has happened on the Alaskan pipeline,
for example), how effective such agreements are, and how they will
affect labor availability. The likely extent of unionization at
these new projects, the relative shares represented by the unions
involved, and contrasts with the unions' position in other mining
areas will also be indicated when possible. Emerging patterns of
"noneconomic" demands, for example, health and recreation services,
may play an important role in shaping energy-impacted communities.
If trends are noted in this area, they will provide useful
information for socioeconomic impact analysis.
Steady-state communities: Leholm, Arlen, F. Larry Leistritz,
and James Wieland (1975) Profile of North Dakota's Coal Mine and
Electric Power Plant Operating Work Force, Agricultural Economics
Report No. 100. Fargo, N.D.: North Dakota State University.
Rapidly expanding communities: Chalmers, James, and Judith Glazner
(1975) "Construction Worker Profile", study sponsored by Old West
Regional Commission, performed at Mountain West Research, Inc.
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D. Anticipated Results
Although there will be local hiring, it seems likely that
few of the needed personnel will be recruited locally. In many
of the scenario locations, there are simply not enough people in
the area. Even if there were, however, many of the jobs will
call for specific skills. This lends added importance to
migration.
It is well-known that migrants tend to differ demographically
from their sending populations as well as from their receiving
populations: they are younger, more educated, and so forth.
In addition to these tendencies, the heavy construction industry
exhibits certain other characteristics—most notably strong
seasonal variations and hidden unemployment. Social Security
statistics indicate that the number of individual workers employed
in that industry during the course of a year can exceed the number
2
on payrolls in an average week by a factor of two. Heavy
construction manpower demands are likely to be met in large part
by persons seasonally unemployed from other industries. This
implies a relatively elastic supply curve, but previous labor
Greenwood, Michael J. (1975) "Research on Internal Migration
in the U.S.: A Survey." Journal of Economic Literature 13 (June):
397-433.
2
Federal Energy Administration (1974) Project Independence
Blueprint; Final Task Force Report: Labor. Washington: Government
Printing Office.
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market research will have to be examined more carefully to
determine whether this is an accurate conclusion.
Preliminary examination of the industry suggests the
existence of a group of construction workers who continually
move about the country from job to job. If so, this would imply
clear differences between the construction and operation phases
in boom towns. For example, a lesser expenditure on housing has
been noted in boom towns than compared to more-established towns
of their size. This reflects (1) smaller families; and (2) greater
use of mobile homes. (For example, 40 percent of the planned
units in Colstrip, Montana are mobile homes.)
E. Data Availability
Personnel requirements for many kinds of energy facilities
(for example, electric power plants) are well established. Newer
developments (for example, coal conversion), however, have not
been deployed at full scale. Hence, all operating characteristics,
including personnel requirements, are not now known and can only
be estimated.
Substantial information is available on the numbers of people
currently involved in all the various occupations. Moreover, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics regularly publishes labor demand
forecasts for selected skills. But this leaves open the question
See Myhra, David (1975) "Colstrip, Montana... the Modern
Company Town." Coal Age 80 (May): 54-57.
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of how many workers can be recruited from other jobs and other
locations, and/or retrained.
The practices and effects of unions are difficult to measure
meaningfully. Information in this area is fragmentary and usually
not collected on a consistent basis. Nevertheless, certain basic
factors, for example, proportions of workers covered by collective
bargaining agreements by industry, are available.
F. Research Adequacy
Economic theory can be used to project qualitative features
of the labor force, such as the relative extent of migration in
various situations, demographic characteristics of migrants, and
so on. Most research to date would have to be modified for this
study to: (1) take into account the unique features of a large
facility being placed in a sparsely populated area; and (2) detail
migration histories, communication channels, etc., on an individual
worker level.
The supply characteristics of occupational skills, although
expected by theory to follow certain general patterns, have not
been documented in any detail for the industries of greatest
concern.
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4.3.6 Financial Resource Availability
A. Introduction
Financial requirements related to energy development are
important on two levels: the capital required by the energy
industry for the development itself; and the financial requirements
of local governments caused by the population influx. Both levels
involve questions about the amount of capital required, the time
frame over which it is needed, the sources from which it will
come, and the institutions through which it will be channeled.
All three concerns are being discussed extensively. The question
of financial resource availability generally raises numerous
issues that will receive attention in our policy analyses.
B. Baseline Data
Current patterns of financing the energy industry will be
described. Basic data are available in compendia of the Census
of Mineral Industries, Federal Power Commission, and the Bureau
of Mines. The business press and trade publications will help to
provide a more qualitative description of the institutions and
procedures. At the same time, these activities must be placed
in the context of the capital markets. An overall picture will
be derived from data in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, the
These may include, for example, Fortune, Coal Age, and Barron's
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Survey of Current Business, and studies produced by Chase
Econometrics Associates.
Data on local government finances are available in the Census
of Governments, state statistical abstracts, and special studies
done as part of the environmental impact statement procedures.
Tax rates and levels of service provisions are of particular
concern. Information on the legal parameters of public finance
policy (for example, constitutional restrictions on municipal
debt), will be useful for policy analysis.
C. Methods and Procedures
Descriptions of the scenarios and ERDS include information
on capital costs, detailed into types of equipment, on-site labor
categories, and so forth. Furthermore, information is available
on the time phasing of the developments. These data lead directly
to estimates of required investment funds and carrying charges for
each type of facility.
The impact on the national economy will extent far beyond the
construction site. Each purchased piece of equipment results in
an order to a manufacturer; that manufacturer places orders with
other manufacturers, trucking companies, building contractors,
etc. Input-output analysis can be used to project the ultimate
demand impacts of this process. The SEAS model uses an input-output
Yan, Chiu-shuang (1969) Introduction to Input-Output
Economics. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston.
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methodology in such a way that total capital investment can be
projected, along with a lag structure describing the phased
response to demands.
The total financial requirement (including manufacturing,
transportation, and other subsidiary sectors), can then be
projected for the nation as a whole. This will be compared with
the overall capacity of the capital market and relevant components,
for example, bonds, bank loans, leases. If western energy
development is found to have a significant impact on these markets,
indications of interest rate effects, diversion of capital from
housing construction, and related impacts can be derived.
Whether or not energy development substantially impacts
national markets, institutional innovation may be required.
Capital investment may far exceed the creditworthiness of the
companies in the field, if present day procedures are applied.
Such questions are inherently qualitative, so we will deal with
them through a subjectively performed synthesis of informed
opinion in the financial field.
Given current local tax rates, and anticipated population
and economic changes (from our social, economic, and political
impact analyses), the future growth of tax revenues can be
charted. Furthermore, demographic variables can be used to
Wilson, Wallace W., interviewee (1975) "Project Financing,
Customized Money Packages for Coal Mine Development". Coal Age
80 (April): 98-107.
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indicate the need for expansion of governmental services. For
example, given an estimate of school-age children, requirements
for classrooms, teachers, buses, and other educational facilities
can be derived.
Financial bottlenecks may develop in two areas: (1) the
present value of revenues may fall short of the present value of
required expenditures; or (2) expenditures may precede revenues
thereby necessitating borrowing in one form or another. Each of
these situations calls for its own set of responses; the former
could be addressed through additional taxation, intergovernmental
transfers of funds, territorial annexation, or retrenched service
levels; on the other hand, the latter bottleneck would require
selling bonds, providing for early payment of taxes, or using
temporary facilities. These and other options will be addressed
in the policy analysis phase.
D. Anticipated Results
There are differing views on the ability of the energy industry
to finance new development through conventional capital markets.
The markets would seem large enough to handle investments of this
Hass, Jerome E., Edward J. Mitchell, and Bernell K. Stone
(1974) Financing the Energy Industry. Cambridge, Mass.:
Ballinger; and Lindauer, Robert L. (1975) "The Role of Market
Capital in the Solution of Boomtown problems". Paper presented
at the Seminar on Financing Infrastructure in Energy Development
Areas in the Western States, Snowbird, Utah, August.
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magnitude without undue stress. However, risk elements may deter
all but the most speculative investors. For example, some investors
believe that current petroleum prices, now maintained by the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, could fall, leaving
alternative fuels producers without a market. Whether or not this
reasoning is valid, if investors believe it, price supports, loan
guarantees, or other governmental aid might be necessary to get
them to participate.
The extent to which western U.S. capital will be involved in
energy financing is not known precisely, but it probably will be
minimal. With less than four percent of the nation's population,
the Rocky Mountain states could hardly be expected to contribute
a major portion of the requisite capital. For the most part,
financial matters will be dealt with by aggregating capital
requirements over the region and comparing these figures with
national (and international) markets.
On the local level, private capital will no doubt be
redirected as new profit opportunities emerge. Savings and loan
associations may liquidate (national market) bonds in order to
finance a flood of new mortgages; local people will speculate in
land; and so forth. These responses will depend critically on
the financing decisions of government and the developers, so we
Oil and Gas Journal (1975) "Views Conflict on U.S.
Oil-Shale Aid." 73 (October 13): 38.
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will comment on them as an adjunct to the major financial
questions.
In most of the scenarios,local and state revenues could grow
enormously. This, combined with increasing returns because of
increasing town size, could insure the adequacy of local
government resources if short-term cash flow needs are met.
However, jurisdictional lines may sometimes complicate the
situation. If a power plant is located in one county and the
nearest substantial town in another county, the second county may
bear substantial costs (for schools, for example) without being
able to collect property taxes on the energy facility. On the
other hand, the sales tax is probably more effective for the second
county than for the first. While a state severance tax can be
used as part of an equalization plan in this case, such an option
would not be available if the jurisdictional line were a state
border. Additional complexity and potential inequities may occur
when facilities or towns are built on Indian reservations. These
examples are only suggestive of the range of financial input
issues with which the policy analysis must deal.
Even if over the long-run revenues will be greatly increased
and taxes possibly reduced, communities will still usually have
Alonso, W. (1971) "The Economics of Urban Size". Papers
of the Regional Science Association 26: 61-76.
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a "lead time problem". This is the problem of obtaining capital
before revenues from development are available. For example, roads,
sewers, schools and so forth must be built immediately, whereas
the revenue to support them will flow in over a period of 20, 30,
or more years; and local bonding capacity may be limited by state
constitutions, investor formulae which are based on past revenues,
or irreducible uncertainties about the future. Therefore,
innovative approaches which have been proposed or which might be
employed in attempting to resolve this problem will be described
and analyzed.
E. Data Availability
Although extensive financial data are available, differences
2
exist on their interpretation. Generally speaking, there is
greater public disclosure of governmental financial information
than of corporate information, although investor concern has led
to a consistent format and widespread dissemination of some
corporate financial data.
Expenditures for personnel will be subject to considerable
uncertainty until some of these new energy facilities have been
Lament, W., and others (1974) Oil Shale: Tax Lead Time
Study. Denver: Colorado Geological Survey.
2
See, for example, the symposium entitled "Is There a Capital
Shortage?" held at the convention of the American Economic
Association, Dallas, Dec. 1975.
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4-109
constructed. Financial needs of local governments can be projected
somewhat more accurately if good information on future population
expansion and local taxation procedures and rates can be obtained.
F. Research Adequacy
The Census of Governments has taken steps toward compiling
standardized information on local finances, but it is far from
complete. In doing an adequate local impact analysis, information
would be needed on specific tax rates, fiscal authority of local
agencies, constitutional restraints on borrowing, and so on. As
noted, a considerable research effort would be needed to collect
and standardize this information.
On the national level, financial markets are complex and not
well understood, due mainly to the interdependencies between
financial sub-sectors. Economists can only indicate in rough
terms the likely sources of capital for proposed large-scale
energy development. Mechanisms actually being used by energy
companies today can be documented with somewhat greater assurance.
It is not clear whether current methods can be scaled up without
extensive mergers, innovations, or government support.
A fundamental question concerns the appropriate interest
rate to be used in discounting future costs and benefits. An
extensive literature has grown in response to this problem, but
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4-110
agreement is not yet universal. It may still be necessary to do
a parametric analysis using a range of interest rate assumptions.
4.4 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
4.4.1 Introduction
The ecological impacts analysis examines changes (arising
from energy development scenarios) primarily in terms of alterations
in biotic systems. This analysis examines the composite effects
2
on existing ecosystems of physical impacts previously discussed
under transport modeling, changes in land use and quality and
availability of water resources, and parts of the social, economic,
and political analysis described in the following sections.
A number of ecological impacts have been identified as
significant issues and will receive particular attention. These
will include a variety of potential changes to terrestrial and
aquatic communities. For example, surface mined land reclamation,
especially in more arid areas, and shale spoil revegetation have
already raised important issues. The magnitude of other issues
is more difficult to assess, such as the introduction of new
recreational activities and land uses, and potential changes to
Effects on human health are described in Section 4.6
2
An ecosystem can be defined as a functionally interacting
biological community and physical components that occur in a
given area.
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4-111
vegetation from acid rain. Significant changes to aquatic
communities may stem from a number of energy related activities,
such as alterations in stream flow or water quality. In addition
to identified potential impacts such as these, this analysis is
intended to identify other biological impacts that might raise
significant public policy issues.
Analytical goals for ecological impacts analysis include:
1. providing a general baseline description of
the existing conditions and trends in the
ecosystems studied;
2. evaluating the nature and extent of alterations
to this baseline related to the residuals from
energy development: land and water use; air and
water quality changes; and population growth;
3. within the priority framework described in this
section, evaluating the combined impacts of
development residuals and other simultaneous
stresses on the ecosystems, using selected
ecosystem parameters and significant species;
4. assessing the limitations of existing data and
ecological knowledge for identifying,
solving or mitigating these problems, and
indicating priorities in needed research.
A number of boundaries have been established for the analysis
of ecological impacts, both in terms of geographic scope and level
of detail. Geographic boundaries are largely determined by the
extent to which significant impacts can be felt. Boundaries of
the ecological studies of scenarios may, therefore, differ from
those used in other portions of this study.
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4-112
During the first year, the main focus will be on changes at
the level of the ecosystem and to significant ecosystem components.
Within this perspective, emphasis will be placed on the ecology
and habitat requirements of identified "major species". These
major species will be selected on the basis of their ecological
importance or sensitivity to anticipated impacts. All major
species will, therefore, be indicators of ecological stability,
in that changes in their populations would either affect the
stability of the ecosystem directly or signal the attainment of
levels of disturbance which could be potentially important in
ecosystem terms. In addition, attention will be given to species
of interest to humans, such as game animals and fish or endangered
species, since existing management systems are largely oriented
around them. In this way, the study may be kept close to relevant
policy issues and the available means of approaching ecological
problems.
Impacts brought about by changes in land and water use will
receive special emphasis. This task is viewed primarily as a
review of existing data and a synthesis of pertinent information.
The level of detail, for example, will not approach that of a
typical environmental impact statement.
The organization and sequence of this analysis, described
in subsequent sections, is shown in Figure 4-2.
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4.4.2 Baseline Data
Baseline data will be required to provide adequate background
descriptions of conditions and trends in existing ecosystems for
the assessment of the impacts of energy development. This background
description relies primarily on existing data availability identified
and described in Section 4.4.5. The methodology for developing this
data base will be systematically to review, tabulate, and describe
the parameters identified below:
1. the distribution of major vegetational units.
(Vegetation units and their associated fauna
are subsequently termed "ecosystem units.");
2. quantitative estimates, at the local scenario
level, of annual gross primary production^ (for
indicating total community energy flow) of
each major vegetation unit, with estimates of
seasonal variation, where possible. In addition,
data on energy available to animals (net primary
production) may also be tabulated;
3. lists of dominant animal species characterizing
the major vegetation types;
4. description of the habitat requirements of
selected game species, endangered species, or
other species of immediate ecological or human
interest ("major species") found in each
ecosystem unit; and
5. recent trends in habitat quality and population
size and condition of major species.
Gross primary production is a measure of the total
photosynthetic potential of vegetation, net primary production
is a measure of this potential minus energy used in plant
respiration.
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4-115
Much of the baseline ecosystem data will be summarized as
maps of major ecosystem units (see Figure 4-3, for example), as
well as of critical habitat for major species, at both the local
and regional level (see Figure 4-4). In addition, brief
qualitative descriptions of plant and animal assemblages typical
of each ecosystem type will be prepared, along with tabular
descriptions of the major aspects of the ecology of the individual
major species, including such factors as food habits, preferred
cover types, seasonal changes, and the environmental factors that
currently limit population size. Table 4-7 provides an example.
Baseline data will be limited to those needed to support analyses
described in the following sections.
4.4.3 Methods and Procedures
The initial assessment of ecological impacts will use the
descriptions of residuals and their physical impacts to evalute
changes in ecosystem productivity and diversity due to changes
in land use, and to discuss the exposure of major species to
hazardous quantities of water and air pollutants. The goal is to
describe changes in existing conditions which contribute to the
more complex impacts assessed in the subsequent section. The
parameters to be addressed in this section include: (1) change
in the areal extent of existing ecosystem units and importance of
habitat loss to affected wildlife; (2) change in primary production;
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4-116
MAJOR VEGETATION TYPES
OF THE
i/-!/-: r'v.t'-y ^.^vW^vvV
C&.^ViV;-,' ''^)>i-M^v .
[^S&S?/fe /Vfe^^ BIGHORN MTS.
^r
WYOMING
T 54 N R 92
FOREST
rTiTf Picea engelmannii-
Abies lasiocorpa
ED Pi.iuo contor'a
ClI Psoudolsuga monziesii
EL3 Pinus pondorosa
NONFOREST
[y-j Above timborline
CH Bolow timberline
£SS Juniperus osteosperma
o
FIGURE 4-3: EXAMPLE OF VEGETATION MAPPING
AT A REGIONAL SCALE
Source: Despain, D.G. (1973) "Vegetation of the Big Horn
Mountains, Wyoming, in Relation to Substrate and Climate."
Ecological Monographs 43 (Summer).
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_, T» T« 7> Tt 71 7O »»61
HlT^l^ro^'"1'
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• 76W 7T T» TS 74 f 75 7» 71 70 •» •• «07
!• if"
Y$*£&*>A ^
]
\
, 139
_JN
Winter antelope concentration areas (shaded)
for the southern portion of the Gillette
Antelope Management Aiea (1955-1956) -N
-\ v 'i < Vs * - ; (
..^A-il-^J- -i\.-f-=-, -^ \.
Winter antelope: conccntiation areas (shnciecl)
for the southern portion of the Gillette
Antelope Management Aien (April, 1959)
Figure 4-4: Example of Critical Habitat Map for
Major Species, Local Scale
Source: Wyoming Coal Gas Company and Rochelle Coal
Company (1974) Applicant's Environmental Assessment
for a Coal Gasification Project in Campbell and
Converse Counties, Wyoming.
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TABLE 4-7: SELECTED MAJOR SPECIES OF THE FARMINGTON AREA
Species
Mule deer
Antelope
Wild turkey
Waterfowl
Cottontail
Marsh hawk
Gray fox
Coyo te
Black-footed
ferret
Peregrine
falcon
Spotted bat
Prairie
falcon
Burrowing owl
Residency
Status
Year long
Year long
Year long
Migratory,
some
breeding
Year long
Resident
Year long
Year long
Possible
resident
Possible
migrant
Possible
resident
Possible
resident
Resident
Vegetation
Zone
Pinyon- Juniper
mountain
brush
(semidesert
shrub)
Grasslands
(semidesert
shrub)
Ponder os a
pine-
Douglas fir
Riparian and
lakeshore
marsh
(ponds)
Riparian and
f loodplainr
semidesert
shrub and
grassland
Riparian and
grassland
Widespread
Widespread
Semidesert
shrub and
grassland
Riparian or
Semidesert
shrub;
riparian
vegetation
Semideaert
shrub and
grassland/
sandy areas
Semidesert
shrub and
grasslands,
sandy areas
Habitat
Preferences
Open country
Open pine
stands with
abundant
edge
Irrigated lands
interspersed
with native
vegetatioft
Riparian lands;
washes with
brushy cover
Hunts in open
country
Brush , lowlands
(nocturnal)
Open spaces
Mesa tops (?)
(nocturnal)
Cliffs
Rocks, caves,
cliffs
Rough country
Near prairie
dog towns
Food
Preferences
Drowse, some
forbs
Grasses and
forbs
Pine seeds,
berries,
grasses ,
grasshoppers
Grain, seeds,
grass ,
aquatic
plants,
snails, and
crustaceans
Vegetation of
various kinds
Small mammals ,
birds
Rodents ,
rabbits,
reptiles,
berries,
fruit
Small mammals ,
fruits and
berries
Prairie dog
Medium-sized
birds
Insects
Birds,
mammals,
grasshoppers,
crickets
Insects,
small
vertebrates
Nest or Den
Edges of
deciduous
trees and
brush
Ground within
a mile or so
of water;
ponds and
stock tanks
On ground
Ground in marsh
or grasslands
Burrow, den or
hollow log
Burrow or
hollow log
In dog town
On ledge
On ledge
Burrow in
ground ,
sometimes an
old rodent
hole
Major
Stresses
Habitat quality
and weather
Competition
from
livestock;
water
Timbering,
winter
weather
Human control
measures
Limited food
supply
Shooting,
probably
pesticides
Shooting,
probably
pesticides
Decline of
pr a i r i e dog
Population
Status
Declining
Declining
Declining
Stable
Stable
Rare
Rare
Hare
Rare
Rare
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and (3) qualitative description of the significance of hazardous
emissions and effluents to ecosystems. This information is
pertinent to a variety of policy areas, such as establishing
protective measures for limiting toxic wastes, developing
ecologically oriented siting requirements, and providing a
framework for ecologically reasonable reclamation requirements.
A. Methods of initial Impact Analysis
The evaluation in this section will be made primarily by
superimposing the activities described in each scenario on
existing ecosystem patterns. Methods appropriate to the selected
parameters are described below.
1. Changesto Area! Extent of Ecosystem Type; Siting
areas within which scenario components are envisioned
will be mapped, -and these maps compared with the
distribution of ecosystem types and key wildlife and
aquatic habitat developed in the baseline section.
This will allow the "significance" of the habitat
available within these siting areas to be compared
with remaining untouched habitat as a means of
setting an initial value in the kinds of lands which
could be removed from productivity.
Then, the total quantities of land required by the
scenario components can be used to determine the
significance, with respect to remaining habitant,
of removing known quantities of certain ecosystem
types.
2• Changes in Gross and Net Primary Production:
Productivity estimates from the literature (as a
part of the baseline descriptions), will be applied
to the extent of habitat to calculate existing and
changed levels of production within a local scenario
site. This method has been used by H.T. Odum for a
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number of assessments of the impact of proposed
developments . 1
3 . Qualitative Assessment of the Significance of
Alteration: This analysis will review available
literature and describe in summary form the major
changes in the overall quality of habitat resulting
from direct scenario land-use impacts. These
summary descriptions will parallel descriptive
approaches used in environmental impact statements
(see section on information sources) . Several
major points likely to be addressed include:
(a) effects on terrestrial and aquatic habitat
due to construction and operation of water supply
systems; and (b) relationship of the success of
reclamation efforts to the use and quality of
surrounding habitat.
4. Qualitative Assessment of Hazards Posed by Air
and Water Residuals, and Settling Ponds: This
portion of the analysis will review available
literature and identify factors which may act
as stresses or hazards to major species or
significant ecosystem processes. Major points
to be addressed are: (a) potential for damage
to vegetation due to acid rainfall; (b) characteristics
of surface waste impoundments, such as size and
presence of toxic substances, and likelihood of
their use by different kinds of wildlife.
B. Methods of Analysis of Higher Order Impacts
This analysis of higher order impacts will focus on such
factors as the effects of changes in water quality and quantity
stemming from regionwide water resource development on aquatic
ecosystems. Emphasis will be placed on the cumulative impacts
Odum, H.T., C. Littlejohn, andW.C. Huber (1972) An
Environmental Evaluation of the Gordon River Area of Naples,
Florida and the Impact of Developmental Plans. Gainesville,
Fla.: University of Florida, Department of Environmental
Engineering Sciences.
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of industrial, agricultural, and municipal/domestic activities.
Another major focus will be the indirect effects of increased
human populations on ecosystem units short of actual modification
or removal of habitat. This will provide information on the
cumulative effect on major species of the combination of direct
habitat loss and modification of remaining habitat. The analysis
in this section will provide information relevant to such policy
questions as the need for additional wildlife refuge lands,
land-use planning, water allocations, protection of wildlife
species and funding priorities for research. This higher order
analysis will be primarily descriptive, but several methods will
be applied to describe systematically the complex effects to be
assessed. Three techniques will be employed: (1) interaction
models to trace the interrelationships of the major primary
impacts on the whole ecosystem; (2) network analysis to identify
the higher order consequences of development; and (3) cross-impact
accounting matrices to check for potential omission of significant
consequences.
1. Interaction Models; The interaction models are
systematic diagrams that posit a given change in
baseline conditions and display the range of
initial consequences that are likely to stem
from it. Although they are somewhat subject
to the influence of the background and knowledge
of the investigator, they do provide a summary
of the major interactions between aspects of any
energy development and the surrounding environment
as depicted in Figure 4-5.
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CHANGE
FISH AND
INVERTEBRATES
HABITAT
CHANGE
PRODUCTIVITY
AND AQUATIC
VEGETATIO
INCREASE
FISHING
CHANGE
DOWNSTREAM
SALINITY AND
TEMPERATURE
CONSTRUCT
DEEP
LOSE
M SOME FISH
SPECIES
DECREASE
STREAM FLOW
VARIATION
AQUATIC PEST
MODIFY
LOCAL
WATERFOWL
ACTIVITY
Figure 4-5: Simplified Interaction Model Diagram
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4-123
2. Network Analysis; By this technique, the local
impact of a given residual is traced outward
schematically through a series of first-, second-,
and higher-order consequences (see Figure 4-6).
While this approach ordinarily results in a
diagram too complex for use in presenting results,
it allows the various interactions in a complex
system to be accounted for, so that important
higher-order effects are not overlooked.
3. Cross Impact Matrices: This method incorporates
a list of anticipated changes in existing
baseline conditions in addition to a checklist
of potentially affected ecosystem functions and
components. These two lists are related in a
matrix which identifies cause/effect relationships
between specific activities and impacts.1 In
this study, the matrix will be used to provide
a check on the completeness of identified
impacts, rather than to analyze or quantify
changes in the ecosystem.
4.4.4 Anticipated Results
Anticipated results and their form of presentation will
include: (1) maps of areas where ecosystem degradation by
increased human populations is considered likely, and discussion
of the significance of this effect; (2) discussions of the relative
susceptibility of major species to population decline due to
alteration in habitat availability; and (3) discussion of the
nature of impacts on the aquatic environment associated with
regionwide water use. These anticipated results will be discussed
Leopold, Luna B., Frank E. Clarke, Bruce B. Hanshaw, and
James R. Balsley- (1971) A Procedure for Evaluating Environmental
Impact, Geological Survey Circular 645. Washington: Government
Printing Office.
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in terms of their potential irreversibility, temporal, and
geographic extent, and the possibilities for mitigation.
4.4.5 Data Availability
A number of data sources will be used as input for the
analysis of ecological impacts. These data sources include
literature searches using on-line data bases such as Biological
Abstracts, Toxline, various government publications, personal
contacts, and surveys of agencies, universities and other national
and regional research and information centers. Major sources of
information for this section of the assessment include federal
1 2
level planning documents, environmental impact statements,
Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (1974) Prescott
National Forest Multiple Use Guide; Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Land Management (1973) Unit Resource Analysis Report
of Virgin Valley Planning Unit, Cedar City District, Utah;
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management (n.d.)
Management Framework Plan for the Vermillion Planning Unit, Kanab
District, Utah; Missouri River Basin Interagency Committee (1971)
Comprehensive Framework Study, Missouri River Basin; and Upper
Colorado Region State-Federal Interagency Group (1971) Upper
Colorado Region, Comprehensive Framework Study.
2
Colorado-Ute Electric Association, Inc. (1974) Applicant's
Environmental Assessment, Yampa Project, Craig, Colorado;
Department of the Interior (1973) Final Environmental Statement
for the Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Program. Washington:
Government Printing Office, 6 vols.; Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Land Management (1975) Draft Environmental Impact
Statement, Kaiparowits Project; Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Reclamation (1974) Draft Environmental Statement, WESCO
Coal Gasification Project and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah
International, Inc., New Mexico; Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region (1974) El Paso Coal
Gasification Project, New Mexico, Draft Environmental Statement;
and Wyoming Coal Gas Company and Rochelle Coal Company (1974)
Applicant's Environmental Assessment for a Proposed Coal Gasification
Project in Campbell and Converse Counties, Wyoming.
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game range maps, habitat utilization studies and similar documents
and scientific literature and personal interviews with government
and academic researchers active in the geographic areas of interest.
Although large quantities of detailed information are available
from the above sources on specific locations and species, studies
are of inconsistent quality and do not cover the entire area of
interest to this project. The structure of ecosystems is poorly
understood in many parts of the West and research presently being
conducted at that level is not applicable to all of the scenario
areas. Quantitative data on population sizes and primary ecosystem
parameters such as productivity or carrying capacity for a given
species are sometimes available, but are of inconsistent quality
and incomplete over the western region.
Ecological baseline data are generally limited for most
Indian reservations. Mapping and discussion of trends in wildlife
and fisheries are particularly important for the Crow and Northern
Cheyenne reservations in the Colstrip area , for the Southern
Ute, the Ute mountain, and the Navajo reservations
(Kaiparowits/Escalante and Navajo/Farmington), and the Fort
Berthold reservation in North Dakota.
Knapp, Stephen J. (1975) Birney-Decker Wildlife Study.
Helena, Mont.: Montana Department of Fish and Game; Martin,
Peter R. (1975) Sarpy Basin Wildlife Ecology Study. Helena,
Mont.: Montana Department of Fish and Game; and Mussehl, T.W.,
and F.W. Howell (1971) Game Management in Montana. Helena,
Mont.: Montana Fish and Game Department.
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The acid rain question will have to be treated by comparison
to existing situations, where acidity of rain has been related
circumstantially to air pollution. Impact projections-in this
area will accordingly be of low accuracy.
The behavioral response of wildlife to impounded wastewaters
cannot be predicted in any theoretical sense. Assessment of this
hazard will be based on the known behavior of species with respect
to similar bodies of water, the degree of comparability remaining
a matter of informed conjecture. The amount of relevant information
available about wildlife behavior is very scanty, and is not easily
comparable to the conditions under study.
Data on regionwide water demands will be subject to constraints
discussed in Section 4.3.1. Effects of consumptive use on TDS
can be modeled, but effects on temperature will have to be
inferred, as they will vary considerably on a local scale.
Few hard data on the response of regionwide populations to
habitat loss and attrition are available. Conclusions will have
to be drawn on the basis of inference and informed judgment.
Limited comparisons with prior experience in areas with growing
human populations can be made. Modeling is limited by the
unavailability of reliable input data, and the many uncertain
behavioral parameters involved.
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4.4.6 Research Adequacy
A variety of gaps in ecological data and analytical models
currently exist that limit accurate prediction of the ecological
impacts that are addressed in this study. These limitations
include both baseline data on the composition of ecosystems, and
the response of these systems to changed conditions. A number of
the research needs presently identified as useful to this TA
include:
1. case studies of wildlife response to habitat loss;
2. studies relating primary productivity to natural
climatic variability and species ecotypes;
3. further observations on the long-term success of
mine spoil reclamation in various climatic
regimes;
4. case histories and direct observation of the
effects of increased human populations and
recreational pressures on resident wildlife
of previously undisturbed areas;
5. range size, limiting factors and habitat needs
of major game and endangered species at a
local level. Need to document regional
differences;
6. ecological relations and sensitivity to
pollution or disturbance of species important
to the stability of the ecosystem, such as
pollinating insects;
7. vegetation mapping at the level of detail of
Kuchlerl for the state of Kansas needs to be
carried out for all states;
Kluchler, A.W. (1973) "Problems in Classifying and Mapping
Vegetation for Ecological Regionalization." Ecology 54 (Late
Spring): 512-523.
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8. land-use maps of the type presently being made
from satellite photographs by National Aeronautics
and Space Administration (NASA) need to be developed
for the western states, as is presently being done
by the U.S. Geological Survey; and
9. projections of the growth of agriculture, and
associated land use, need to be made for the time
period of this study.
4.5 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL IMPACTS
4.5.1 Introduction
When energy development occurs in an area, socioeconomic
impacts arise from two principal sources. One of these is the
change in population, initially during construction and later
when the plant or facility is placed in operation. The other is
the change in the local economy due to salaries, tax revenues,
and plant expenditures. Both of these impacts generate other
changes and impacts in the community and in the region, especially
on the community needs and services, culture and governments of
the area. For example, a population influx increases the need
for housing, utilities, schools, roads, and health care which
frequently cannot be met by existing community services. Local
governments often cannot meet these needs through taxation because
tax-producing developments are usually located in the county,
whereas people tend to live in the communities nearby which may
2
not share in increases to their tax base. Also, antagonisms may
Consequences, attributable to energy development at a
particular location, could be traced back to areas that are far
removed from the location. In this study, socioeconomic impact
analysis will be limited to the locations and areas specified in
the site-specific and aggregated scenarios.
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arise between newcomers to the area and long-time residents,
leading to social and political conflicts. Impacts such as these
are explored and assessed in this impact analysis.
The purpose of this analysis is to examine and assess the
impacts of energy development on several aspects of social,
economic, and institutional structure for each scenario area.
These impacts are likely to result in both benefits and costs for
individuals, for social groups, for entire communities, and for
the various institutions and levels of government. A number of
possible policy alternatives can be considered to alleviate or
mitigate the issues which arise as a result of these problems.
Assessing the ways in which policies may affect these problems
provides a means of evaluating these policy alternatives. For
example, the construction of new towns in energy development areas
allows many potential impacts to be largely localized, whereby
impacts on existing communities are lessened by the provision of
certain services, such as housing and shopping, in the new town.
If a new town is not built, other localities may sustain even
greater impacts.
A simplified view of the categories we are using to trace
the effects of energy development on a local area is presented
p
R. L. Lindauer (1975) "Solutions to the Economic Impacts
of Large Mineral Development on Local Government", in Federation
of Rocky Mountain States, Energy Development in the Rocky
Mountain Region; Goals and Concerns (Denver: Federation of Rocky
Mountain States), pp. 63-68.
It should be remembered that this technology assessment is
a research effort based on secondary sources, which largely
precludes the possibility of gathering original data, including
attitudes of residents and local authorities. There is, then,
a heavy reliance on completed and ongoing studies in the western
states.
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in Figure 4-7. This graphically illustrates the assumption that
changes in population and in the local economy are the immediate
results of energy development. This assumption is employed in
this impact analysis to simplify the sequence of analyses;
clearly, interconnections and feedbacks other than those illustrated
exist.
Data for sets of variables considered important will provide
a basis for assessing the impacts of energy resource development
on some critical social, economic, and political facets of life
and, as discussed below, will be evaluated for each scenario.
4.5.2 Baseline Data
Statistical data and the findings of other studies form the
set of baseline conditions for the scenarios. The year 1975 is
employed as the base year. However, in some locations these
baseline conditions are somewhat dependent upon the extent to
which energy development has already taken place. Impacts due to
energy resource development on population, services, housing, and
economic structure at locations, or in areas, where energy
development has already begun will be difficult to isolate. In
The "boom" side of energy development will be emphasized
during the first and second years of the assessment, consistent
with the year 2000 time frame; most energy facilities have an
expected life of about 30 years. In the second and third year
assessments, increased attention will be given to the
post-development termination phase or "bust" effects on
communities.
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feedback
Energy
Facility
Population
N
/
/
X
/
Culture
^ /
\
\
/
Local
Economy
Politics
and
Government
feedback
Population:
Number and distribution (age, sex, ethnicity, location)
Housing (type, value, quality, number)
Characteristics (income, education, unemployment,
occupations, and skill levels)
Local Economy:
Sectors and employers
Related industries
Commuting patterns
Transportation services
Private services
Culture:
Quality of life
Sense of community, life-style
Politics and Government:
Laws and planning capacity
Politics and interest groups
Revenues
Public services
Figure 4-7:
Categories of Analysis in Assessing Effects
of a New Energy Facility on a Local Area
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some cases, baseline social, economic, and political data may
include changes that have occurred as a result of energy resource
development prior to 1975. As a practical matter this is
difficult to avoid. For example, development of energy resources
at Gillette, Wyoming, began prior to 1970 and the 1970 census
data reflect impacts from this.
4.5.3 Methods and Procedures
As explained in Chapter 3, two different means are used for
measuring changes which occur due to the energy developments
described in our scenarios. Site-specific and aggregated
scenarios, except for the eight-state regional scenario, specify
a level of energy development, the impacts of which can be
compared to conditions existing in our baseline year, 1975. The
regional scenario specifies and compares impacts from both high
and low levels of energy development. Projected developments
specified in all scenarios cover three time periods: the present
to 1980; 1990; and 2000. Projection and discussion of social,
economic, and political conditions during all three time periods
will be made for each of the variables and subject areas
considered, generally on the basis of counties and subcounty
areas.
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A. Population Impact
Projections of population conditions will be based on
probable construction and operation phase employment. The two
phases produce different impacts, both in terms of population and
other higher-order effects. The difference between the phases and
their impacts will be emphasized, such as the different
employment-population effects associated with the phases.
For areas where significant changes in population and economy
have already occurred and will continue, the economic base model
provides an estimate of the service-related population needed to
2
complement a known population of basic (or export) workers and
Commonly used population projection methods, which are
based on migration responses to employment and unemployment, are
rather unrealistic for energy development areas. In the energy
development case, immigrants do not respond mechanistically to
long-term, measurable trends in income or unemployment, but move
to new job opportunities created by the construction and operation
of energy-related facilities. These short-term causes generally
are not measurable in existing population and migration models
(see, for example, Greenwood, M. J. [1975] "Research on Internal
Migration in the United States: A Survey." Journal of Economic
Literature, 13 [June], pp. 397-433). The Utah Process model
attempts to include the short-term factors, based on spatial
aggregates of several counties, and analyzing the effects of
several economic developments together. The fact that these
regions and sets of events (alternative futures) cannot be
separated renders this otherwise excellent model unsuitable for
this study. See Weaver, Rodger, Ross Reeve, Dwight Ellingwood,
Bruce Stowell, Robert Catlin, and Anna Williams (1975) The Utah
Process; Alternative Futures, 1975-1990. Salt Lake City: Utah
Office of the State Planning Coordinator. A refinement of the
Utah model for the Navajo reservation may be more useful to the
TA when it is available.
2
Basic (export) workers manufacture goods that are exported
from the local area.
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their families. The economic base multiplier is a quantification
of this employment-population relationship. Projections of such
employment and population for both construction and operation
phases of energy facilities are also highly dependent upon the
timing and sequencing of construction, particularly for scenarios
where more than one energy facility is postulated. This aspect
of the socioeconomic analysis will utilize the most accurate
available information about planned developments, as well as
reasonable information for hypothetical developments in the
scenarios. Clearly, the assumptions employed in the projections
of multiple facilities will influence the results. Information
concerning occupation, education, and skill types of energy
workers will be included in these projections, as will the
demographic composition of the population. The geographical
distribution of the population for the three time periods will be
projected, since different population concentrations will have
different impacts.
A number of impacts occur directly as a consequence of
population change. A major area of impact is the stress placed on
housing, public services (such as schools, health facilities, and
roads), and private services (such as utilities and retail shops).
Clearly, demand for these causes both the local economy and local
government to attempt to provide them.
P. E. Polzin (1973) "Urban Employment Models: Estimation
and Interpretation." Land Economics 49 (May): 226-233.
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4-136
To a large extent, these service needs are closely related
to population changes so that projections of service impacts will
be made from population projections. Housing and educational
needs, for example, will be projected largely by employing
assumptions about the demographic structure of the area, in terms
of number of families and number of school age children. (If
local data are not available, national or state structures will
have to be used.)
A variety of previously conducted local studies will be
employed to provide comparisons of projections, error ranges, and
assumptions (Dalsted, Norman L., F. Larry Leistritz, Thor
Hertsgaard, Ronald G. Frasse, Richard Anderson [1974] Economic
Impact of Alternative Energy Development Patterns in North Dakota,
Final Report prepared for the Northern Great Plains Resources
Program. Fargo, N.D.: North Dakota State University, Department
of Agricultural Economics; Dickenson, D., L. Johansen, and R. D.
Lee [1975] Energy-Rich Utah: Natural Resources and Proposed
Developments. Salt Lake City: Utah Department of Community
Affairs; Federation of Rocky Mountain States [1975] Energy
Development in the Rocky Mountain Region; Goals and Concerns.
Denver: Federation of Rocky Mountain States; Gilmore, J. S., and
M. K. Duff [1974] A Growth Management Case Study; Sweetwater
County, Wyoming. Denver: University of Denver Research Institute;
VTN ColoradoFl974] Socioeconomic and Environmental Land Use Survey
for Moffat and Rio Blanco Counties, Colorado, Summary Report
prepared for W. R. Grace and Company. Denver: VTN Colorado; and
Westinghouse Electric Corporation, Environmental Systems [1973]
Colstrip Generation and Transmission Project: Applicant's
Environmental Analysis. Pittsburgh: Westinghouse). Theoretical
studies on the relationship of costs of operation with city size
will also be consulted (Alonso, W. tl97l] "The Economics of Urban
Size." Papers of the Regional Science Association 26: 61-76;
Klaassen, L. H. [1972] "Growth Poles in Economic Theory and Policy,"
in A. Kuklinski and R. Petrella eds. Growth Poles and Regional
Policies. The Hague: Mouton, pp. 1-40; and Richardson, H. W.
[1973] The Economics of Urban Size. Lexington, Mass.: D. C.
Heath.
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B. Economic Impacts
Energy development brings with it other economic activity
which either uses its energy output or provides inputs (such as
materials and services) to the energy development. These
relationships among economic sectors are measured by input-output
models, which for given areas provide indicators such as income
and employment multipliers. These models measure the long-run
effect of a change in one sector, such as coal mining, on all
other sectors of the economy, through both direct and indirect
buyer-seller relationships. Where suitable, state and substate
input-output models will be utilized for comparison of estimates
of energy sector multipliers; these multipliers will be used to
compare estimates for the additional long-run employment (and
population) generated in each sector as a result of an expansion
in energy production.
New revenues may become available to local governments from
property taxes on facilities, and through income and sales taxes
from employees. These revenues and how they are used by governments
involve policy analysis inputs (see Chapter 5). In addition,
where people new to the area choose to live may alter existing
patterns of commuting and shopping, and these may cause new
commercial activities in the area. These changes will be related
to the spatial population distribution and impacts on these local
activities will be assessed.
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During the first year of the study, employment projections
will be made with existing or arbitrary multiplier estimates.
However, such values vary widely and there is potential for
considerable error in this approach. In the second and third
years, employment multipliers may be estimated with relatively
new techniques suitable for localities in rural areas. The
sensitivity of forecasts to multiplier estimates will then be
assessed.
C. Cultural Impacts
The environment surrounding many towns in the West and their
relative isolation have formed a life-style that will necessarily
be changed as newcomers arrive to exploit energy resources.
Ethnic groups which have been able to maintain a relative isolation
will be severely affected by the different values and cultures of
the new population.
Land use impacts, including new demands for urban land,
transportation routes, and new pressures on recreational land,
Braschler, C. (1972) "A Comparison of Least-Squares Estimates
of Regional Employment Multipliers with Other Methods." Journal
of Regional Science 12: 457-468; Mathur, V. K., and H. S. Rosen
(1974) "Regional Employment Multiplier: A New Approach." Land
Economics 50: 93-96; Rosen, H. S., and V. K. Mathur (1973) "An
Econometric Technique versus Traditional Techniques for Obtaining
Regional Employment Multipliers: A Comparative Study."
Environment and Planning 5: 273-282.
-------
4-139
are also likely to cause conflicts between traditional Western
life-styles and those of the new residents. These impacts will
be described and assessed with the help of existing studies of
such impacts. These studies tend to emphasize the satisfactions
(and dissatisfactions) of local residents with such intangible
elements as the supportive spirit of the community, responsive
government, and adequate leisure time activities.
The time lag between the arrival of new residents and the
provision of services can also induce stresses in the society.
For example, dissatisfaction with inadequate services can create
a malaise in both old and new residents. Conflicts between the
two groups may arise due to segregation of the two groups in a
community. Distinction between construction and operation phases
will be important here, since the temporary nature of construction
employees' residence in the community may itself give rise to
these and other conflicts. New demands and uses for land will be
estimated from expected needs for urban, industrial, transportation,
and recreation development. Conflicts with existing uses,
especially with agricultural land and wildlife habitat, will be
described and assessed.
Gilmore, J. S., and M. K. Duff (1974) A Growth Management
Case Study: Sweetwater County, Wyoming. Denver: University of
Denver Research Institute; Institute for Social Science Research
(1974) A Comparative Study of the Impact of Coal Development on
the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana
and Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.: University of
Montana, Institute for Social Science Research.
-------
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D. Political and Governmental Impacts
Impacts on governmental and institutional arrangements and
on patterns of political participation are likely to occur from
energy development. Three categories of governmental activity
which may be affected in various ways include:
1. Policy management, which includes the identification of
needs, analysis of options, establishment of priorities,
allocation of resources, and the implementation of
policies, strategies, and programs.
2. Resource management, which is the establishment of basic
administrative support systems, such as budgeting,
financial management, personnel administration, and
information management.
3. Program management, which is the daily operation of
public services in functional governmental units.-*•
Greater service needs (as well as financial alternatives to
meet these needs), long-range planning needs for zoning and other
development regulations, and the need for additional coordination
among the different jurisdictional levels of government will
increase demands within these three public management categories.
Most of these demands will be caused by the creation of new
settlement areas and the introduction of new industry and recreation
facilities in what were predominantly rural areas. Residents of
these areas will demand a richer mix of public services and
conveniences, expect better quality services, and create more
groups dependent on public support. As a result, state and local
Study Committee on Policy Management Assistance (1975)
Strengthening Public Management in the Intergovernmental System.
Washington. D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.
-------
4-141
governments will be pressed to match these rising demands with
growth in their fiscal and administrative capacities. In addition,
pressures will be experienced in terms of program needs: for
example, crime, sanitation, health, and public welfare.
Closely related to the management of government is the degree
and type of public participation in formal and informal governing
groups. Until the recent past, participation was limited largely
to user groups. New groups, dissatisfied with this arrangement,
are seeking ways to inject their values into the decision process.
The political considerations which will be examined include the
public and industry groups active in the area; an assessment of
the participants, their organization, and relative influence; the
structure of government personnel policies (elected—professional
or part-time—and appointed officials), and potential political
conflicts between segments of the electorate. For example, class
differences, rural-urban differences, and pro-con development
attitudes may exist even before new residents arrive and perhaps
shift the political base of the area. Belief in and support for
the form and style of government, whether slower, more traditional,
or responsive and expedient can shift when the population changes.
For example, see Bolle, Arnold N. (1971) "Public Participation
in Environmental Policy." Natural Resources Journal 11 (July):
497-505; Curren, Terence P. (1971) "Water Resources Management
in the Public Interest." Water Resources Bulletin 7: 33-39;
Rocky Mountain Environmental Research: Quest for a Future (1974)
Task Force on Institutional Arrangements, Final Report. Logan,
Utah: Utah State University, Ecology Center, pp. II-C-10, II-C-11.
-------
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Impacts on the local power base, governmental structure, and
institutional arrangements for decisionmaking will also be
described and analyzed. Potential effects on political groups
and governments at other than the local level will also be
2
identified.
Another important consideration in this impact category is
the planning capability of the community in terms of the existence
and size: of a planning budget, the number and expertise of
personnel, identification of the responsible coordinating agency,
and a description of development plans already in existence.
4.5.4 Anticipated Results
Projections of population, housing, educational needs, and
other characteristics will result in values which are functions
of time and can thus be graphed.
"For a discussion and collection of much of the literature
on institutional power arrangements relative to differing
political administrative forms, see Downes, Bryan T., ed. (1971)
Cj-ties and Suburbs: Selected Readings in Local Politics and
Public Policy. Belmont, Calif.: Wadsworth; Clark, Terry N. ,
ed. (1968) Community Structure and Decision-Making: Comparative
Analyses . San Francisco: Chandler Publishing Company; Lineberry,
Robert L. , and Edmund P. Fowler (1967) "Reformism and Public
Policies in American Cities." American Political Science Review
61: 701-716; and Liebert, Roland J. (1974) "Municipal Functions,
Structure, and Expenditures: A Reanalysis of Recent Research."
54: 765-783.
"Demands on policy and program management at the local and
state level are bound to spill over into intergovernmental
jurisdictions, involving both regional and federal resources.
-------
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These graphs will include error ranges identifying the
uncertainty inherent in the projections. Any input-output model
projections of energy-related economic activity will have to be
aggregated according to the future timing and sequencing of various
sectoral expansions. Land use, population concentrations, and
other changes will be presented both verbally and by means of
maps. Descriptive or qualitative projections of, for example,
social relationships, cultural differences, political activity,
and government structure can be described as trends over time or
as cross-sectional changes to indicate the patterns of change.
Sensitivity analyses will be employed to identify those
impacts which are relatively constant and those which are highly
dependent upon the conditions and assumptions of the analysis.
Those variables which are most influenced by other impacts are
also most likely to be sensitive to error ranges and varying
assumptions.
4.5.5 Data Adequacy
Many data are available from U.S. Bureau of Census publications
and from state statistical abstracts and reports. Information on
recent trends (since 1970) is generally only available from such
Although this section considers both qualitative and
quantitative data, only quantitative characteristics are
generally amenable to sensitivity analyses. Changes in
descriptive variables due to other influences may be noted, but
numerical ranges are not generally appropriate.
-------
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local studies; sources for some scenario areas are continually
being acquired and updated. Data on government revenues and
expenditures are also compiled by both the Census Bureau and the
states, but such detailed items as health care, utilities,
amenities, life-style, parties-at-interest, and laws and
regulations must be gathered from a large number of separate
reports and other sources, including individuals knowledgeable
about some aspect of these conditions. A great deal of reliance
will have to be placed on local studies, especially those which
document social attitudes, cultures, and concerns.
4.5.6 Research Adequacy
Extant research on energy-related socioeconomic impacts in
the western U.S. is not very uniform in coverage. A great deal
of research of varying quality is available for many areas of the
West, from large regions to small local areas. These studies,
however, do not always correspond in coverage to our scenario
sites. These studies include a variety of site-specific
socioeconomic data, descriptions, and survey information. This
type of information, especially the attitudes and life-styles of
local inhabitants, is needed for our TA to include a reasonable
social impact assessment at either the local or regional scenario
-------
4-145
level. Further, relatively little research apparently has
addressed the adjustments which local individuals, groups, and
governments must make when energy impacts are anticipated or felt.
The identification of, and distinction between, irreversible and
manageable impacts on existing energy-impacted towns also would
be useful to this research effort.
4.6 HEALTH EFFECTS
4.6.1 Introduction
The primary purpose of the health effects impact analysis is
to identify and provide a preliminary evaluation of the potential
effects on human health of the energy development activities
considered in the scenarios. The output of this section will
consist of descriptions, primarily in qualitative terms, of the
occupational and public health risks involved in the scenarios
so that policy issues related to health hazards can be identified.
Judgments will be made concerning the possible health impacts
associated with each development site, as well as the larger
regions within the categories listed in Table 4-8.
Federation of Rocky Mountain States (1975) Energy Development
in the Rocky Mountain Region: Goals and Concerns. Denver:
Federation of Rocky Mountain States;.and Gilmore, J. S. and M. K.
Duff (1974) A Growth Management Case Study: Sweetwater County,
Wyoming. Denver: University of Denver Research Institute
(December).
-------
4-146
TABLE 4-8: HEALTH EFFECTS IMPACT CATEGORIES
Impacts of "criteria pollutants" on public health, under
worst-case, long-term, and short-term average conditions, with
respect to:
Population geography
Age structure
Occupational exposure
Pathways by which people are exposed to pollutants through air,
fluid and solid vectors.
Potential cumulative, antagonistic, and synergistic effects of
pollutants.
Qualitative hazard associated with "noncriteria pollutants"
Trace elements
Atmospheric sulfates
Hydroc arbons
Radioactive emissions
A secondary objective is the identification and assessment
of models and other tools available to the health specialist
for projecting health outcomes in exposed populations. The
adequacy of the data base for performing this task, and future
research needs in health effects from residuals of energy
technologies, will also be delineated.
-------
4-147
4.6.2 Baseline Data
The health effects analysis uses as its input data the
results of the socioeconomic and air-quality modelling tasks, as
well as information contained in the ERDS's relating to production
of such nonregulated pollutants as potentially carcinogenic
hydrocarbons. Baseline data on the incidence of respiratory
disorders, cancers, or background incidence of similar
disabilities, is generally not available at an appropriate level
of detail for use in local or aggregated scenarios.
4.6.3 Methods and Procedures
The underlying framework in the health effects analysis
involves tracing the pathways of pollutants from their point of
emission through the salient elements of the biosphere in order
to identify exposure interfaces with the human population. The
goal of this process is to identify points along the pathway of
selected pollutant species (see Table 4-9) and to identify
relative hazards levels of these pollutants. Following pollutants
along their pathway through the physical and biological elements
-------
4-148
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of the biosphere is expected to produce results which can be used
to develop control strategies and policy recommendations.
The results of pollution transport modeling provide the
initial concentrations of criteria pollutants which constitute
specific health hazards. As described in Section 4.1 on pollution
transport modeling, this input information will be in the form of:
1. Maps of average annual concentrations of criteria
pollutants at the plant boundary, over the town, and
where possible, on a larger regional scale as the models
permit.
2. Worst-case conditions data within one hour, three hour,
eight hour, twenty-four hour, and four day, time frames.
3. Natural background concentration of selected hazardous
agents at the plant facility, over the townsite, and
over the region as data are available.
The socioeconomic impact analysis will provide data on the
characteristics of the population that are essential to evaluate
the effects of pollutant concentrations. For example, the spatial
distribution of the potential receptor population and the age
distribution are needed to evaluate the susceptibility of the
population to both acute and chronic exposure of pollutants.
When these baseline data have been gathered, pollutants will
be reviewed systematically and the hazards associated with the
proposed technologies will be identified. The primary approach
used to accomplish this assessment will be pathway analysis which
is the systematic tracing of the form of toxic substances through
air, fluid, and soil vectors and biological components in order
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to determine the exposure interfaces with human populations.
Systematic tracing also facilitates the identification of potential
situations where cumulative, antagonistic, or synergistic effects
may take place.
The specific identification of the extent of health hazard
will be based on literature review and informed judgments of the
health consultants by relating present understanding of
dose-response relationships to ambient levels determined in the
scenarios. Where recognized models are not available, linear
extrapolations of dose-response relationships may be used where
these appear reasonable. This form of assessment will be applied
to both construction and operation stages of the site-specific
scenarios. It is expected that significant portions of this
analysis, however, will be limited in terms of available knowledge,
and one of the objectives will be to identify significant gaps,
especially in terms of the etiology and epidemiology of
pollution-induced stresses.
4.6.4 Anticipated Results
The major emphasis will be on hazards to human populations
from exposure to emissions from energy facilities. In most cases,
it is expected that only an upper boundary of maximum expected
health impacts can be established. The full range of potential
dose-effect relationships is outside the scope of this study.
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As in other sections of the impact analysis, this portion of the
assessment will be a synthesis: bringing together previous and
on-going studies and ordering them in terms of these needs of
the TA.
4.6.5 Data Adequacy
As indicated in the previous section on methods, outcomes of
environmental stresses will be analyzed on the basis of available
literature in toxicology (experimentation with doses on laboratory
animals) and epidemiology (disease patterns determined by
statistical associations in human populations) as well as clinical
work (experiments on volunteer human subjects) and by accidental
occupational exposures. Much of the evaluation will, be based on
criteria and standards developed by the EPA, the National Institute
of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) and the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) together with the experience
of the health research consultants conducting this section of the
study. These consultants, currently at the School of Public
Health at the University of Texas Health Science Center at
Houston, Texas, are:
Dr. Stanley M. Pier, Ph.D., Purdue University
(organic chemistry)
Associate Professor of Environmental Health
Dr. Richard K. Severs, Ph.D., University of Texas
(community health)
Assistant Professor of Environmental Health
Dr. Thomas F. Gesell, Ph.D., University of Tennessee
(physics and health physics)
Assistant Professor of Health Physics
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4.6.6 Research Adequacy
As previously identified, significant data gaps exist in
identifying the cause-effect relationships between chronic and
acute exposure and pathological response in human populations.
A significant part of the first year effort will be to flag these
limitations and to suggest areas where additional research would
produce useful results. In addition, judgments will be made on
the quality of both the available data and the predictions made
in the study.
4.7 ENERGY
4.7.1 Introduction
The energy impacts of energy development can be analyzed
using energy analysis, or as it is sometimes known, net energy
analysis. This is a technique which accounts for the energy
costs of finding, extracting, upgrading, and delivering a commodity
(in this case a fuel) to the consumer. The goal of energy
development in the West is to supply energy to consuming sectors,
either directly as fuel or for the production of goods. It is,
therefore, useful to know how much of the energy initially
available must be fed back to the energy developments themselves.
Although the usefulness of energy analyses is controversial,
any evaluation which purports to analyze a full range of impacts
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requires that energy analysis be taken into account. Selected
energy resource systems and several levels of development will
be compared on the basis of their net energy. It is possible
that the difference in net output between high and low energy
development will be a small fraction of the gross difference, a
fact that may have important policy implications.
4.7.2 Baseline Data
There are currently three sets of procedures for doing energy
analysis, each requiring slightly different baseline data. In all
three cases, the direct energy requirements of each technology
are needed. In addition, physical (that is, tons of steel,
cement, etc.), economic (that is, expenditures for steel and
cement, etc.), and environmental (that is, land and water) input
data are needed as well as coefficients for converting physical
inputs and costs to energy units. Preliminary data on both a
physical and cost basis for each technology are to be included in
the ERDS data base, and will be updated in the second and third
years. Many other studies also will be drawn upon for the needed
data. Coefficients for converting physical quantities to Btu's
2
are difficult to obtain, but coefficients for converting costs
Gilliland, Martha W. (1975) "Energy Analysis and Public
Policy." Science 189 (September 26): 1051-1056.
2
Some sources are: Berry, R. S., and M. F. Pels (1973) "The
Energy Cost of Automobiles." Bulletin of Atomic Scientists 29
(December): 11-17; and Makhijani, A. B., and A. J. Lichtenberg
(1972) "Energy and Weil-Being." Environment 14 (June): 10-18.
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to Btu's are readily available in 1967 dollars. The cost-to-Btu
coefficients, known as Herendeen coefficients, require the use of
deflators to bring costs down to 1967 dollars. Deflators are
2
available from the Department of Commerce. Data required to
evaluate environmental impacts are included in the ecological
impact analysis.
4.7.3 Methods and Procedures
All three sets of energy accounting procedures evaluate the
energy embodied in materials and equipment, either by physical
units (Btu1 s per ton) or economic units (Btu1 s per dollar) . One of the
three sets of procedures also includes environmental inputs to
the process and requires ecological impact information. The
value of environmental inputs goes beyond the price of the land
and water and includes services the environment contributes
without charge.
Herendeen, R. A., and C. W. Bullard (1974) Energy Cost of
Goods and Services, 1963 and 1967. Urbana, 111.: University of
Illinois, Center for Advanced Computation.
2
Deflators are published annually by the U.S. Department of
Commerce in the July issue of Survey of Current Business.
For a discussion of this concept, see Gilliland, Martha W.
(1975) "Energy Analysis and Public Policy." Science 189
(September 26): 1051-1056.
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Energy accounting using these three procedures will be a
continuing effort; however, results given in the first year TA will
draw exclusively from existing and ongoing analyses of other
research groups. Beyond the first year, specific strings of
modules described in the scenarios will be analyzed to the extent
that data have been compiled and/or are available from secondary
sources.
4.7.4 Anticipated Results
Total energy input in the form of the direct energy and
materials required for selected technologies, combinations of
technologies, and the developments postulated in the scenarios
will be tabulated and compared with the total energy output of
each.
Some of these include, for oil shale development: Raese,
Jon W., ed. (1975)"Proceedings of the Eighth Oil Shale Symposium."
Quarterly of the Colorado School of Mines 70 (July); for coal,
natural gas, oil shale, and geothermal: on-going ERDA-sponsored
research at Development Sciences, Inc., East Sandwich, Mass, and
on-going Department of the Interior-sponsored research at Colorado
Energy Research Institute, Golden, Colo.; for geothermal, Gilliland,
Martha W. (1975) "Energy Analysis and Public Policy." Science 189
(September 26): 1051-1056; for uranium mining and milling:
Rieber, Michael, Shao Lee Soo, James Stukel (1975) The Coal Future:
Economic and Technological Analysis of Initiatives and Innovations
to Secure Fuel Supply Independence. Urbana, 111.: University of
Illinois, Center for Advanced Computation; Freim, James B. (1975)
"Energy Analysis of the Milling Proces in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle,"
in Energy and the Environment, Vol. I. Proceedings of the 21st
Annual Technical Meeting, Institute of Environmental Sciences,
Anaheim, Calif., April 14-16.
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4.7.5 Data Adequacy
The extent to which input data on both a physical and cost
basis will be included in the ERDS is still uncertain. Data for
converting physical quantities to Btu's are completely inadequate,
a fact which may preclude this sort of direct analysis. Data for
converting costs to Btu's are outmoded in that they have been
tabulated only through 1967. Using 1967 dollars and deflators
introduces an error in the range of 25 percent.
4.7.6 Research Adequacy
Several gaps in both the data base and analytical techniques
limit accurate calculations of energy inputs. Data base gaps have
been identified above. An important research need is the
compilation of energy cost data on a Btu's per ton of product basis
Furthermore, the theoretical basis of the analytical techniques
has not been clearly delineated. The relationship of this theory,
which is based on the laws of thermodynamics, to economic theory
and economic analysis is unclear and controversial. A research
project which did both economic and energy analyses of the same
developments under the same assumptions would help resolve the
controversy and provide insight into the different kinds of
information obtainable from each type of analysis. Finally,
research on both the theoretical basis and procedures for
evaluating environmental inputs is needed.
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4.8 AESTHETIC IMPACTS
4.8.1 Introduction
Some of the issues that will result from energy development
activities arise because of impacts on aesthetic values or goals.
Aesthetic impacts are associated with those particular quality of
life perceptions that individuals (or groups) emphasize or select
as related to beautiful and/or pleasing aspects of the natural
environment and the physical man-made environment. These impacts
occur largely because of physical alternations and might therefore
appropriately be considered in other impact sections. However,
increasingly, noneconomic and nonmaterial concerns are expressed
when development projects are assessed. Therefore, to insure
that the subjectivity and diversity of aesthetic experiences are
properly considered, a separate brief section is devoted to the
description and assessment of potential changes in aesthetic
opportunities resulting from energy resource development.
In this TA aesthetic impacts will be limited to treatment of
potential changes in both the natural and man-made landscape and
to water, air, noise, and biological surroundings, primarily as
The point to be emphasized here is that it is not just the
outward physical phenomenon or event that must be considered, but
its connective relationship with emotion, perception, and
appreciation. In this sense, aesthetic opportunities are tied
to a deeper sense than what is simply considered economically
worthwhile, or pragmatically effective. See Dewey, John (1927)
The Public and Its Problems. Chicago: The Swallow Press, Inc.,
pp. 182-184.
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perceived from residential, commercial, and recreational areas.
(See Table 4-10.)
4.8.2 Baseline Data
Data for aesthetic impacts will come from scenario
descriptions and the analyses of physical, ecological, and social
impacts. These data will include, for example, changes in air
and water quality, landscape, noise levels, skyline due to the
construction of man-made objects, floral and faunal changes, and
changes in population levels associated with increased urban
development. Information on aesthetic preferences must be
extrapolated from available attitude survey material for the
western states.
4.8.3 Methods and Procedures
The extreme variations in aesthetic judgments make direct
impact assessment impossible. This stems from the fact the things
people consider aesthetically worthwhile, significant, or good do
not gain their significance or value from some empirical measure
of effectiveness. Rather, they are a product of the emotive
experience of seeking and enjoying what is beautiful. While
aesthetic goals themselves are thus inherently nonquantifiable,
they are, like other preference values, in some sense hierarchically
perceived by individuals, parties-at-interest, and decisionmakers.
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Since this technology assessment is a research effort based on
secondary sources, the aesthetic impact analysis must rely on
completed and ongoing studies in the western states. However, the
only substantive area in which research procedures have been
applied to aesthetic goals is in the field of water resources
planning. Efforts in this area have employed a content analysis
of survey interviews concerning the aesthetic preferences of
parties-at-interest. Such techniques require extensive questioning
of people and the construction of sophisticated social indicator
indices which must be mathematically linked to perceived but
nonquantifiable aesthetic goals. Consequently, the procedures used
in this TA will be limited to an effort to assess qualitatively
aesthetic factors by relating a range of aesthetic values
extrapolated from available attitude surveys to energy
developments postulated in the scenarios. This will be done
by obtaining a team consensus about those physical impacts described
in the scenario analyses which represent potential alterations of
aesthetic opportunities (as shown in Table 4-10). Some impacts
may be straightforward, for example, the presence of untreated
See Andrews, Wade H., Rabel J. Burdge, Harold R. Carpenter,
W. Keith Warner, and Kenneth P. Wilkinson, eds. (1973) The Social
Weil-Being and Quality of Life Dimension in Water Resources
Planning and Development. Proceedings of the Conference of the
University Council on Water Resources, Utah State University, Logan
Utah, July 10-12; and Water Resources Research Center of the
Thirteen Western States, Technical Committee (1974) Water Resources,
Planning, Social Goals, and Indicators; Methodological Development
and Empirical Test. Logan, Utah: Utah State University, Utah
Water Research Laboratory.
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waste or sewage in a lake or a stream. Others, such as local
attitudes about a newly constructed energy facility's effect on
the surrounding landscape, are not as readily identifiable. Once
a range of values is established, those impacts ranked high
according to a number of potential criteria will receive particular
attention, although all aesthetic impacts will provide some
information to be used in policy analysis.
TABLE 4-10: AESTHETIC OPPORTUNITIES IMPACT CATEGORIES
Landscape
Air
Water
Biota
Noise
Man-made
Objects
Land forms, geologic surface material, urban,
mountain, desert, agricultural, forest,
water-land interface characteristics.
Visibility, odor, eye irritants
Clarity, odor, surface characteristics (floating
objects), water-land interface characteristics.
Vegetation, fauna, number, location, and variety
of species.
Unpleasant intermittent or background sounds.
Visual, condition, consonance with environmental
surroundings, color.
Source: Based on categories developed by Whitman, Ira L., and
others (1973) "A Description of an Environmental Evaluation
System," in Environmental Protection Agency (ed.) The Quality of
Life Concept: A Potential New Tool for Decis ion-Makers.
Washington: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research
and Monitoring, Environmental Studies Division, p. 11-147; and
Water Resources Research Center of the Thirteen Western States,
Technical Committee (1974) Water Resources Planning, Social
Goals, and Indicators; Methodological Development and Empirical
Test. Logan, Utah: Utah State University, Utah Water Research
Laboratory.
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4.8.4 Anticipated Results
It is expected that many of the visual intrusions (for
example, the introduction of an energy facility on what was once
a "wide open" expanse of range land) could rank high on the list
of aesthetic impact, but factors that are traced from other sources
in impact analysis might also be significant. For example,
secondary changes could be important, such as reductions in game
or species variety as a result of habitat attrition, or changes
from increased human population that would jam park lands, produce
litter, or change the characteristics of clear streams. Ranking
of potential results will be largely affected by the range of
aesthetic values used in assessing impact.
4.8.5 Data Adequacy
Data for this section of the assessment are grossly inadequate.
Aesthetic preference data are either inadequate or not available
for most of our scenario sites. Furthermore, the reliability of
available survey data is frequently questionable. Some data
have been gathered that deal with quality of life intrusions on
Indian aesthetic and religious values as a result of energy
development. In addition, as noted above, efforts have been
Goodman, James M. (n.d.) "Some Observations of the Navajo
Sense of Place." Unpublished paper. University of Oklahoma,
Department of Geography.
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undertaken to develop social indicators for aesthetic opportunities
reflected in water resources planning and development.
4.8.6 Research Adequacy
Research on aesthetic values relative to energy facility
configurations has not been accomplished. Because of its
subjective nature, the perception of goal achievement does not
allow pure objective measurements. Furthermore, indices that
have been developed and used to describe aesthetic impacts for
other areas of inquiry are constrained by a lack of transference.
In part, this is due to the incomplete theoretical nature of social
indicator methodology. But even where indices have been
constructed, they are, in the final analysis, the product of
informed judgment, whether obtained through sophisticated social
indicator procedures or by review panel processes. And they
usually are problematical in that they are understood only by
those experts who develop them and not by the decisionmaker who
would like to use them to reduce uncertainty regarding aesthetic
goals in the planning process.
4.9 INTEGRATING THE RESULTS OF THE IMPACT ANALYSES
The impact analyses described above are shaped by the nine
scenarios being assessed in this TA. It should be recalled that
two kinds of scenarios have been constructed, site-specific and
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aggregated. Both are intended to facilitate the identification and
analysis of a broad spectrum of impacts, problems, and issues
during the first year of the TA. The six site-specific scenarios
provide hypothetical combinations of particular technologies
deployed at specific sites. These provide a basis for assessing
impacts and identifying problems and issues that have, or are
likely to, arise: (1) on a local level; (2) when development
takes place under particular kinds of conditions; and (3) when
specific processes or technologies are deployed. Each scenario
includes two phases of development, construction and operation,
and three time periods: present to 1980, 1990, 2000.
The three aggregate scenarios to be assessed include one
regional and two river basin scenarios. The regional scenario
provides for two levels of development (high and low) for the
three time periods. The river basin scenarios address only one
level of development. The aggregate scenarios relate national
energy demand projections to the resulting demands for the
development of western energy resources. This provides for the
identification of proposed levels of development; and it permits
an assessment of the national impacts of these levels of development.
The extent to which development trends and synergisms may be
identified in the analysis of these nine scenarios depends on the
A third phase, termination, is considered but will not be
emphasized in the first year report.
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results of the impact analyses described in this chapter.
Scenarios and impact analyses are expected to illuminate impacts:
1. associated with a particular phase of development—
construction, operational, and, in years two or three,
termination;
2. associated with the three time periods—the present to
1980, 1990, 2000;
3. resulting from unique characteristics possessed by a
particular scenario—for example, differences in social,
economic, ecological, or political conditions; and
4. resulting from synergistic effects among different impacts,
The aggregated scenarios will produce results which
highlight:
1. aggregated impacts at a river basin and regional level;
2. the national impacts of two levels of regional energy
development—for example, on materials and equipment; and
3. interactive effects and effects of scale.
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CHAPTER 5
THE INTEGRATIVE PHASE: POLICY ANALYSIS
5.1 INTRODUCTION
As stated earlier, technology assessments (TA) are undertaken
to provide policymakers a better understanding of the consequences
likely to result from their decision to introduce, extend, or
modify a technology. This TA of western energy resource development
is intended to provide national, regional, state, and local
policymakers a better understanding of the consequences of various
patterns, rates, and levels of western energy resource development.
Chapters 3 and 4 describe the data base that will provide policymakers
organized information on the inputs and outputs of various patterns,
rates, and levels of energy development (Chapter 3) and systematic
impact analyses intended to inform policymakers concerning the
impacts likely to be produced by these developments (Chapter 4).
While these products provide policymakers more information, by
themselves they are inadequate to accomplish the overall purpose
of a TA. Impacts, whether real or imagined, frequently give rise
to problems and issues, at least some of which policymakers attempt
to resolve. In such cases, interests and values are almost always
in conflict and have to be accommodated. For their plans and
policies to be well-informed, policymakers need to know about
5-1
-------
5-2
these conflicts and how alternative patterns, rates, and levels
of development will affect them. In the Integrative Phase
described in this chapter, the results of the various qualitative
and quantitative analyses described above are integrated in an
analysis of problems and issues. These integrating analyses
relate the Descriptive and Interactive Phase products described
in Chapters 3 and 4 to the social, economic, and political
context within which policymakers make plans and policies.
The product of these analyses will indicate how various policy
alternatives are expected to affect the interests and values that
are at stake, suggest how accommodations might be reached in
policymaking structures and institutions, and describe the
likely social, economic, political, and environmental consequences
of various development alternatives. Finally, the Science and
Public Policy (S&PP)-Radian research team will make policy
recommendations, primarily to the Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA), but, when appropriate,to other federal agencies, to other
levels of government, and to regional intergovernmental
organizations as well. The approach, procedures, methods, and
techniques to be used in the conduct of these policy analyses
are described in the following sections.
The procedures and methods of analysis to be used are
described in Section 5.3.
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5-3
5.2 GENERAL APPROACH TO POLICY ANALYSIS
As explained in the conceptual framework described in
Chapter 2, impacts occur when the inputs and outputs of a
technology interact with the conditions which exist where the
technology is deployed. Given the impacts that have been
anticipated and those determined using the analytical techniques
described in Chapter 4, the next step is to decide which of these
impacts warrant further attention. Policy analyses are undertaken
to assess and compare alternatives for dealing with the problems
and issues which arise as a consequence of these impacts. Note
that the interdisciplinary team has several difficult decisions
to make: first, it has to decide which problems and issues are
significant enough to warrant further analysis; second, it has
to decide what the policy alternatives and implementation
strategy options are; and third, it has to decide which of
2
these options are feasible and should be assessed. These decisions
are critical because they determine, to a very great extent, the
Implementation strategies include determining the appropriate
policy institutions and structures. In the case of public policies,
this would be the description of the appropriate level, branch,
department, agency, or intergovernmental organization. Nongovernmental
institutions and structures that are important in making particular
kinds of public policy are also considered.
2
As noted in Chapter 2, criteria of feasibility will be made
explicit in each analysis. This will necessarily require the team
to forecast future states of society when such things as social
values and the relative political strength of participants within
the policymaking system may have changed. The point is that, based
on the same criteria, what is feasible in 1980 and in the year 2000
may differ significantly.
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5-4
nature and quality of the research results that will be produced
by the assessment. Unfortunately, there is neither a well-defined,
empirically tested TA theory nor a generally agreed upon TA
methodology that can be relied upon to insure that the team will
make good decisions. This is why the interdisciplinary team
approach, including the extensive use of external reviewers is
stressed. Both are a means for attempting to insure that all
germane factors are considered and that appropriate criteria and
standards are applied. In short, the procedural approach described
in this section is basically a substitute for the lack of established
TA theory and methodology.
Reviews by the interdisciplinary team and external reviewers
are intended to overcome inherent limitations such as bias,
narrowness of perspective, and insufficient knowledge. The goal
is to see to it that these limitations are not allowed to go
unchallenged. When team members are drawn from a variety of
disciplines and encouraged to develop an intellectually challenging
working environment, the team as a group is less likely to permit
the limitations of individual team members to shape the assessment.
But, since there is an upper limit on the number of persons that
can be included in an interdisciplinary research team, limitation
in terms of perspective, bias, and knowledge cannot be completely
overcome. This, together with the possibility that the team has
an institutional bias, is why a variety of external review
mechanisms are an integral part of the S&PP-Radian team's
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5-5
approach. External reviewers include consultants, an advisory
committee and a broad range of persons chosen to represent the
interests or values that are at stake.
Consultants are selected to perform two primary functions:
to provide perspectives and expertise not available within the
interdisciplinary team; and to provide in-depth critiques of
various papers and reports produced by the team.
The advisory committee is constituted to provide for balanced
representation of the interests and values at stake. In energy
resource development, for example, these might well include
representatives of industry, labor, Indian tribes, various
levels of government, and so forth. Members of the committee
are expected to provide a communications link between the
interdisciplinary team and the community of interests that the
committee member was chosen to represent.
To be manageable, the size of the advisory committee must
be limited. Therefore, it is unlikely that all interests or
values that the team should consider get represented. Consequently,
on the basis of its own knowledge and the advice of the advisory
committee and others, a broad range of other external reviewers
are asked to critique the interdisciplinary team's papers and
draft reports. Many of these are parties-at-interest, but some
of these reviewers are selected because they possess expertise
which the team wishes to utilize.
-------
5-6
An operational example is the case of the October 31, 1975
draft of this work plan report. More than 400 copies were
distributed to: (1) alert a broad range of potentially interested
parties that this TA is underway; (2) encourage them to comment ;
on the draft work plan and to suggest how it might be improved
(3) identify sources of data, analyses, and expertise; and
(4) to identify and promote cooperation with other researchers
whose research might be used in this TA. The results were useful
and contributed to the achievement of all four objectives. This
"First Year Work Plan Report" incorporates many of the suggested
changes.
The procedures to minimize bias, broaden perspective, and
overcome knowledge deficiencies described above are displayed in
Figure 5-1. In the S&PP-Radian team's approach, these procedures
are applicable to every phase of a TA, but only their specific
application to policy analysis will be described. The following
description of general procedures include an identification and
description of various analytical methods and techniques to be
used to evaluate and compare the costs, risks, and benefits of
policy alternatives and implementation strategies.
For more details on the interdisciplinary team approach,
see Kash, Don E., and Irvin L. White (1971) "Technology Assessment:
Harnessing Genius." Chemical and Engineering News 49 (November 20):
36-41; and White, Irvin L. (1975) " Interdisciplinarity," pp. 87-96 in
Sherry P. Arnstein and Alexander N. Christakis (eds.) Perspectives
on Technology Assessment. Columbus, Ohio: Academy for Contemporary
Problems. A common criticism of this approach is that it is time
consuming and expensive. It is both. But to date this approach
appears to have produced results that have had a greater impact on
policymaking than any other approach to TA. See Miedema, A. RANN
Utilization Experience: Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas,
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5.3 PROCEDURES, METHODS, AND TECHNIQUES
Using the general approach to policy analysis described in
the preceding section, the interdisciplinary research team conducts
policy analyses in four steps:
1. The identification and definition of problems
and issues;
2. The identification and description of policy
alternatives and implementation strategies;
3. The determination of the costs, risks, and
benefits associated with each alternative and
strategy; and
4. The identification of the alternative and
strategy that would maximize "net value
expectation;"1 and the recommendation of
policies and implementation strategies.
To be comprehensive, the analyses would have to encompass all
problems and issues and identify, evaluate, and compare all
2
policy alternatives and implementation strategies. As mentioned
earlier, even if this were possible it generally is not practical.
University of Oklahoma, Case Study No. 12. Research Triangle
Park, N.C.: Research Triangle Institute.
See Haveman, Robert H. (1970) The Economics of the Public
Sector. New York: John Wiley. "Net value expectation" means
that all relevant values are known and that any sacrifice in
values is more than compensated for by gains in other values.
See also, Dye, Thomas R. (1972) Understanding Public Policy.
Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.
2
This kind of comprehensive policymaking is often called
rationally comprehensive, synoptic, or rationalism. See, for
example, Lindblom, Charles E. (1965) The Intelligence of Democracy.
New York: Free Press; and Dye,Thomas R. (1972) Understanding Public
Policy. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.
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5-9
Consequently, the interdisciplinary team has to narrow the scope
of the analysis to what it decides are significant problems and
issues and feasible alternative policies and implementation
strategies. The team employs the general interdisciplinary team
procedures described above to accomplish this narrowing, applying
criteria and standards to be identified and described in the
following sections.
5.3.1 Identifying and Defining Significant Problems and Issues
Problems and issues are introduced into the TA from two
sources. First, some are introduced from external sources, for
example, as a consequence of energy development already in
operation, being constructed, or being proposed. Others are
identified as a part of the TA itself. Problems and issues from
both sources arise as a consequence of impacts. Therefore, the
identification of problems and issues begins with an examination
of impacts. To determine which impacts and/or combinations of
impacts are expected to raise significant problems and issues,
the team will take into account such considerations as:
The team has found a number of environmental impact statements
private and public funded scientific and technical programs,
congressional hearings and committee reports, and a variety of
materials useful as external sources of information on impacts,
problems, and issues. A list of some of these is presented in
Appendix C.
2
Additional criteria and standards will be added when gaps
are identified. Obviously, not all criteria and standards apply
to all impacts.
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1 . Knowledge—what is the state of knowledge?
degree of uncertainty?
?, Magnitude-—how large will the impact be?
can it be defined?
3- Timing--phasing? When will the impact begin?
4, Reversibility—-can the impact be reversed?
5. Distribxit ion--will the impact be confined or
widespread?
6, Lpgal standards—will the impact violate existing
local, state, federal regulations; or an international
agreement?
7. Social equity—will the impact affect all classes
and ethnic and religious groups the same?
8. Social values—will the impact be socially
acceptable? Will life-styles be changes?
9, Political---will the impact be amenable to political
accommodations? for example, will it be possible
to negotiate acceptable tradeoffs, compromises, etc.?
LP , Health effects—will the impact affect human health?
11. Synergistic effects—will the impact combine with
other impacts or existing conditions to produce new
impact s?
12. Uniqueness--will the impact eliminate unique plant
or animal communities or scenic or historical areas,
etc. 7
1^, Material and equipment--will the impact overload
producers, slowing delivery dates and driving up
prices?
'.'l. Aesthetics--will the impact change skylines, be
r.oi sy, etc . ?
j^, National goals—will the impacts adversely affect
othei national goals, such as national security,
etc. ?
16. Economic and financial—will the impact, increase
rests, intensify the competition for capital, etc.?
i ' . Precedent setting—has the impact been experienced
I, -'. •} F <--•:
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On the basis of the results obtained from this examination,
the team can identify the problems and issues that it considers
to be significant. As is the case at each step in the policy
analysis, both internal and external review will be conducted
to insure that significant problems and issues are not overlooked.
In addition, an attempt will be made to determine whether changes
in state of society assumptions and the consideration of certain
exogenous forces, for example, a pricing policy change by the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), would
materially alter the composition of the list.
Having compiled a list of problems and issues that appear
to be significant, the research team proceeds to define them
as clearly as possible in terms of the standards and criteria
used to establish their significance. This process includes
identifying the interests and values likely to be affected by
the impact. In particular, it includes identifying potential
interest and value conflicts that policymakers should be aware
of when they choose their policy response.
It is also important in defining the problem or issue to
identify the policymaking forums within which solutions might
be worked out; and the functional relationships among these
institutions need to be identified and understood. Given the
scope of the western energy TA, local, state, Indian, regional,
and national governmental and intergovernmental instit\itions
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will be emphasized. However, nongovernmental actors often
play key roles in problem solving and policymaking and the
team will take care to insure that these actors are taken
into account.
The research team begins its policy analyses with the
understanding that:
1. procedures, processes, participants, and forums
will vary from issue to issue;
2. some problems will be more important to some
participants than to others;
3. some solutions are more likely to be arrived at
outside government;
4. some problems fall within more than one jurisdiction;
5. some problems can be resolved by only one level of
government; and
6. what is perceived to be a problem at the national
level may not be considered a problem at the local,
state, or regional level.
All of these factors must be taken into account and, where
appropriate, included in the definition of problems and issues,
5.3.2 Identifying and Describing Feasible Policy Alternatives
and Implementation Strategies
The second step in policy analysis is to identify the
options available to policymakers for responding to significant
problems and issues. Again, the interdisciplinary team follows
the general procedures described in Section 5.2. At this stage
of the analysis, three things have to be considered. What can
be done to eliminate, reduce, or enhance an impact, solve a
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5-13
problem, or resolve an issue? What are the appropriate
governmental and nongovernmental, formal and informal political
institutions and structures (policymaking forums) within which the
problems and issues should be addressed? And what strategies
can be used for implementing the policies produced by these
political institutions and structures? In examining these
considerations, the team will determine when there are barriers
or constraints which eliminate some alternatives, policymaking
forums, or implementation strategies from further consideration.
The team will use a preliminary list of ten categories of
barriers and constraints in making a determination of which
alternatives are feasible. These categories and an example
within each category are listed below:
1. Legal; Communities bearing the impacts might
require energy developers to prepay their taxes
as a means for obtaining the capital needed to
finance social infrastructure expansion. However,
in most states, the law does not provide for this
option.
2. Economic: Energy facilities to be located in areas
where air quality has not been deteriorated might
be required to meet more stringent air quality
standards than now exist. However, the added
dollar costs may make it so uneconomical that it
rules out development.
3. Technological: Given the same situation described
in number 2 above, the technological capability may
not be available—regardless of cost.
The examination of policymaking forums also requires a
determination of jurisdictions, institutional and legal barriers,
and past performance records.
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4. Institutional; Problems such as air and water
quality resulting from a proposed development
may require regional solutions. However, there
may be no regional intergovernmental organization
with authority to act. Moreover, it is very difficult
to establish such organization.
5. Physical: Exporting coal as a raw resource rather
than as a fuel may be viewed within the region as
a much preferred option. However, construction of
the required transportation capability such as
locomotives, trucks, hopper cars, racks, pipe, etc.,
may exceed production capacity and the availability
of physical resources.
6. Environmental: Given the same situation as in number 5,
the export of coal either as a solid or synthetic fuel
to a demand center such as Chicago, may result in severe
environmental problems for Chicago. These may be so
severe as to be unacceptable.
7. Social: Siting a new energy facility in a favorable
location with regard to an energy resource, water,
railroad, etc., may result in significant alterations
in existing life-styles.
8. Cultural: Given the same situation as in number 7,
the development may be unacceptable to some Indians
because the activity would violate their cultural
values.
9. Political; Viewed from a national perspective, it
might be considered environmentally desirable to export
electricity or synthetic gas, rather than coal from a
proposed development. However, this may be unacceptable
to the people living in that state and they may organize
to make it politically infeasible.
10. Jurisdictional; An energy facility located in one state
may produce undesirable air quality problems in an
adjacent state. The receiving state has no jurisdiction.
Federal or regional jurisdiction might be proposed, but
this might be viewed as undesirable even by the state
receiving the impacts.
Needless to say, these categories are neither mutually
exclusive nor exhaustive. However, when employed using the
interdisciplinary team approach and review procedures, they
should provide for a reasonably comprehensive evaluation of the
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feasibility of alternative policies and implementation strategies.
Those which are considered feasible are then evaluated; those that
are not are not discarded until consideration is given to what
would be required to make them feasible, for example, state of
society changes or some significant exogenous intervention.
5.3.3 Determining Costs, Risks, and Benefits
Following the identification and description of feasible
alternatives, the costs, risks, and benefits that each would
produce are determined. In developing western energy resources,
the assumed goal is to maximize positive values or benefits.
Ideally, negative impacts or costs would be avoided altogether!
Likewise, risks such as the exposure of ecosystems and human
populations to harmful impacts would also be avoided. In practice,
all choices produce combinations of costs, risks, and benefits.
The analytical goal to be achieved by the research is to be able
to indicate what these combinations will be, taking into account
the fact that one person's benefit may be another person's cost.
The team also recognizes that this evaluation of alternatives will
not elminate uncertainty about the consequences that can be
anticipated when a particular policy alternative and implementation
strategy is chosen.
On these points, see Quade, E.J. (1975) Analysis for Public
Decisions. New York: American Elsevier.
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5-16
Initially developed as an analysis technique by economists,
cost/benefit analysis is now used extensively in applied policy
research, including TA. When narrowly applied, the analyst
assigns monetary values to each impact and adds up the pluses and
minuses to identify the alternative likely to produce the highest
2
net benefit. In TA, this analytical approach employs a broader
range of values than dollars.
A variety of measures is used to determine costs, risks, and
benefits because some impacts cannot be meaningfully expressed in
dollar terms; others cannot be expressed in any single measure.
For example, birds killed in an oil spill or human lives lost in
a coal mine cave-in cannot be readily valued in dollar terms. Some
of the costs sustained in an oil spill or mine cave-in can be
meaningfully expressed in dollar terms—clean up, rescue operations,
lost production time, and so forth. But birds and human life have
in addition, an intrinsic value that cannot be captured using this
measure. In fact, to reduce costs of this kind to dollars is to
For a discussion of the cost/benefit approach to evaluation,
see Rothberg, Jerome (1975) "Cost-Benefit Analysis: A
Methodological Exposition," in Marcia Guttentag and Elmer L.
Struening (eds.) Handbook of Evaluation Research, vol. 2.
Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage Publications, pp. 55-88.
2
For a discussion of some of the pitfalls of this approach,
see Hanke, Steve H., and Richard A. Walker (1975) "Benefit-Cost
Analysis Reconsidered: An Evaluation of the Mid-State Project,"
in Richard Zeckhauser and others. Benefit-Cost and Policy Analysis,
1974. Chicago: Aldine. See also Roback, Herbert (1972) "Politics
and Expertise in Policy Making," in National Academy of Engineering,
Committee on Public Engineering Policy. Perspectives on Benefit-Risk
Decision Making. Washington: National Academy of Engineering,
pp. 121-133.
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5-17
do policymakers a disservice. Likewise, it is a disservice to
express losses of this kind in any single measure. The significant
analytical point for policy analysis is that multiple quantitative
and qualitative measures are required to describe costs, risks,
and benefits, their scope, and how they are distributed.
In the case of birds, for example, it is not so much the
number of birds killed—although that is probably a better single
measure than dollars would be--it is considerations such as:
Is the impact likely to be reversible or irreversible, short-term
or long-term, and so forth. If the birds killed are a large
percentage of the extant whooping crane population, for example,
the loss is much more significant, than would be a much larger
loss of a nonendangered species such as starlings or English sparrows.
Such distinctions are important to policymakers, most of whom
operate within guidelines which tell them a short-term impact
is more acceptable than one that is long-term; that a reversible
impact is preferable to an irreversible one; that impacts adversely
affecting few persons while benefiting many are preferable to those
producing the opposite results; and so forth. Consequently, in
order to best serve policymakers, the policy analysis results of
this TA will be reported using the combination of impact measures
which best express costs and benefits in terms of the range of
values and interests which are at stake. An attempt will also
be made to take into account the perspectives of policymakers at
different levels and in different branches of government, as well
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as the perspectives of individuals and groups who do not share
common interests and values.
The principal criteria and measures to be used in expressing
the costs, risks, and benefits of alternatives are:
1. Economic measures can apply to many areas, including
industrial, agricultural, recreational, labor,
business, and governmental sectors. The attempt here
is to quantify costs and benefits of feasible alternatives
in monetary terms. This allows for the development of
ratios or other measures of the extent to which costs
exceed returns, or vice versa. Two important ways of
measuring economic costs and benefits are:
a. Direct and indirect monetary measures; The
economic costs of an alternative can be expressed
in dollars. These can be measured by market
valuations or for nonmarket items by imputation
(shadow pricing). For example, process engineering
changes such as environmental control devices, or
removing land from agricultural production can be
assessed in financial terms. Likewise, externalities
or spillover costs and benefits can be similarly
measured. For example, if a town downstream from an
industrial plant is forced to treat water that has
been degraded by the plant, the costs imposed on the
municipality are fairly easy to identify and measure.
b. Distributive measures: Policy alternatives may
distribute costs and benefits evenly or unevenly,
The point here is whether some groups in society
will be benefited more than other groups. For
example, at the local level, the installation of a
power plant in a community will increase its tax
base even though workers at the plant may come from
an adjacent larger community which will not receive
that tax benefit. At an aggregate level, cost benefit
These criteria are closely related to both the impact
analysis categories used in Chapter 4 and the standards and criteria
introduced in this chapter. At this stage of the policy analysis,
the emphasis is on alternatives for addressing impacts. It should
not be surprising that the evaluation of impacts and alternatives
involves the use of similar currencies.
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distribution can be represented by income measures
for a group or region. The distribution of income
for a region can be represented graphically by a
Lorenz curve which shows the degree of inequality
in the distribution (summarized by the Gini ratio
of income concentration). Additional information
such as median income per capita, and the skewness
of income distribution may be included to further
assess the distributive effects of policy alternatives
on groups.
2. Resource Availability and Consumption. The demands
created by an alternative can be measured against
supplies of energy, water, or other materials and
equipment categories. Measures for these include:
a. Net jsnergy: Alternatives can be evaluated in terras
of energy input (as Btu's or calories) required to
produce a given energy output, or this can be expressed
as an efficiency.
b. Physical measures of materials or equipuien.^: The
demands created by an alternative can be described
as tons of steel, gallons of water, or other such
factors. These units can also be expressed, as
proportions of nonrenewable resources that are
depleted, or proportions of scarce water suppjy
used. Economic measures described above may also
be applied to some of these factors.
3. Space and Time Requirements. The range ot an alternative
effect can be expressed in both spatial and temporal terms.
The alternative may resolve only the local problem, for
example, or it may eliminate the impact entirely.
Alternatives may also provide either shorc-terrt\ or long-term
solutions.
4. Environmental and Ecological. The effects on natural
systems from alternative policies can be expressed
through a number of categories. These include, for
example:
a- Air quality: Pollutant impact can be assessed jn
terms of miles of reduced air visibility, smell,
or deposition of particles.
b. Water and land: Policies may affect as/aa lability
of land acreage, acre-feet of potable water, etc.
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5-20
c. Biota: Policies may preserve a number of rare
species or maintain carrying capacity for herds
of big game.
5. Health and Safety. Policies may affect the exposure
of humans working at a facility or outside the fence
lines. These occupational and public effects can be
measured over both the short- and long-term, for example:
a. Disease incidence: The incidence of specific
diseases can be assessed in terms of illness per
hundred thousand individuals.
b. Injuries and deaths: Rate of death and injuries can
be estimated in terms of days lost, or morbidity
and mortality statistics experienced in alternative
occupations and the general population.
6. Social Structure. Policy alternatives can be measured
in terms of a variety of quantitative and qualitative
effect on social, political, and cultural patterns,
behavior, and institutional arrangements. These include:
a. Social indicators: Developed indicators can be
used when they exist. For example, population
influxes can change age and sex demographic
distributions, the availability and quality of
schooling (measured as per capita education
expenditures), recreational opportunities (measured
by visitor-days to indicate the relative attractiveness
of hunting, camping, and hiking areas), and other
aspects considered to be components of social well-being
or quality of life. In cases where indicators either
are inadequate or have not been developed (for example,
in the areas of aesthetics, life-style changes, and
so forth), costs and benefits due to changes in these
amenities, services, or attitudes can be described
qualitatively.
b. Political: Alternative policies can be evaluated in
terms of their responsiveness to parties-at-interest;
and policymaking procedures can be evaluated in terms
of provisions for public participation. For example,
local decisionmakers who may dominate the political
jurisdiction under consideration may have enough of
a political base to render an option infeasible.
That is, one criteria for assessment will be their
related ability to mobilize support. Economic
measures described above may also be applied to some
governmental factors, for example, costs for additional
administrative, personnel, public welfare services, or
added service capacity for sewers, highways, development
planning, etc.
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As with the other steps in policy analysis, this list is
not intended to be exhaustive; nor are the listed criteria
thought to be mutually exclusive. They overlap greatly; and
for each the basic questions concerning certainty (state of
knowledge), scope, duration, distribution, and the introduction
of exogenous forces and changes in state of society assumptions
have to be raised. The basis for much of this evaluation of
alternatives will be products of the ERDS, scenarios, impact
analyses, and problem and issue identification and definition.
This step, the evaluation of alternatives, is, therefore, largely
a summarizing and organizing activity. That is, the products
produced by these earlier tasks provide a basis for evaluating
alternative policies and implementation strategies. At this
stage in the analysis, the emphasis is on systematically stating
what the costs, risks, and benefits are expected to be given the
operational definitions and assumptions the team is using.
5.3.4 Identifying the Alternative with the Highest Net Value
Expectation and Making Recommendations
Once they have been evaluated, alternatives can be compared
in terms of their costs, risks, and benefits. The analytical
ideal would be to produce a single rank-ordering of alternatives.
This, of course, is why expressing all costs, risks, and benefits
in a single measurement unit is so appealing. If this could be
done satisfactorily, choices might be more obvious. However, as
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long as value and interest conflicts persist, policymakers are
charged with the responsibility of choosing from among alternatives
which distribute a range of values and interests differently.
Consequently, to be politically useful, comparisons of the costs,
risks, and benefits of alternatives should be expressed in that
combination of measurement units which most appropriately indicates
how the various alternatives being considered distribute the values
and interests that are at stake. Instead of a single list, this
results in several lists, each of which can be rank-ordered on
the basis of a single measure, interest, or value. For example,
alternatives may be rank-ordered separately on the basis of their
direct and indirect economic costs, energy costs, consumption of
water and consequences for existing life-styles. This provides
the policymaker and other interested parties quantitative and
qualitative bases for making their choices, presumably with a
better understanding of the tradeoffs and accommodations that
will be required and the extent of the uncertainty involved.
Based on the results of its comparative evaluation of
alternative policies and implementation alternatives, the team will
at least in some cases, make recommendations. In doing so, choices
will be justified in terms of specific values and interests.
This will include an identification of the constraints (assumed
or exogenously specified) that were applied, an indication of the
levels of uncertainty involved, and, an identification of the
impacts that were anticipated and the relative importance assigned
to them.
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5-23
In recommending implementation strategies, the team will
indicate which level, branch, agency, etc., of government or other
organization should take action, the action that is required, and
the chronology of actions that should be followed.
In making recommendations, the use of external, prepublication
reviews by potentially impacted policymakers is vital, since
frequently changes in only phrasing or terminology can be
interpreted in substantially different ways, and it is important
that the substance of a recommendation not be blocked by use of
an inappropriate or disquieting term.
5.4 ANTICIPATED RESULTS
Anticipated results have been discussed throughout this
chapter, particularly with regard to what the results will include
and how they will be presented. The emphasis in policy analysis
in the first year will be on the federal government, environmental
policies, and the short- to mid-term future. How these results
will be presented to the range of audiences that the team is
addressing is discussed in Chapter 8.
5.5 DATA AVAILABILITY
Policy analysis is limited by the availability of information
on a number of factors, including systematic identification and
description of parties-at-interest and the various issues and
problems perceived to influence the feasibility of policy
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recommendations. In part, this limitation on data availability is
a reason for the conceptual approach that utilized comprehensive
internal and external review procedures. Despite limitations in
the published literature, we believe that an overall description
of the factors influencing policy for energy development in the
western U.S. can be obtained from both formal and informal data
sources.
Only limited data are available to adequately perform cost,
risk, benefit, and net energy analyses. Information on costs is
available for a number of categories but, as discussed above,
valuation of many factors will be difficult to perform and little
published information is available, for example, in applying costs
to air pollution damages.
Data for net energy analysis are widely available in a
number of categories, such as for thermodynamic losses of both
physical and selected biological processes, but detailed data
for specific sites will have to be inferred from similar localities
in many instances.
5.6 RESEARCH ADEQUACY
"Policy analysis represents the most critical challenge to
TA because the most comprehensive and scientific data gathering
and data manipulation is of little value to the policymaker unless
it has relevant and cogent policy implications." What is needed
Arnstein, Sherry R., and Alexander N. Christakis (1975)
"Assessors' Perspectives on Policy Analysis," in Sherry N.
Arnstein and Alexander N. Christakis, eds. Perspectives on
Technology Assessment. Columbus, Ohio: Academy for Contemporary
Problems.
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5-25
to meet this challenge is a better understanding of how to produce
and effectively present policy useful results. In short, what is
required is an emphasis on applied interdisciplinary policy research.
But, much of the research being conducted under the rubric policy
analysis, public policy research, etc., is disciplinary in
character and aimed almost exclusively at theory-building. Moreover,
much of the limited applied policy research that is being conducted
is aimed at developing single measures for combining costs, risks,
and benefits. As indicated above, better tools for combining and
comparing costs, risks, and benefits are needed; however, the
single measure approach is likely to be counter-productive.
Consequently, more emphasis should be given to developing a better
set of measures.
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CHAPTER 6
RESEARCH ADEQUACY, DATA AVAILABILITY,
AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSES
6.1 INTRODUCTION
A report describing the adequacy of current research programs
to support an assessment of western energy resource development
is among the reporting requirements specified by the Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) for this project. This report is to
compare the requirements for models, analytical techniques, data,
and forecasts with the research goals and objectives that have been
identified for the technology assessment (TA). A special effort
will be made to identify areas where research might be undertaken
and results produced in time to improve the quality of the second
and third year TA reports.
Some data and research inadequacies have been described in
preceding sections. In this section of the work plan report, we
will describe the methods and procedures to be used to determine
research requirements needed to support this TA.
6.2 PROCEDURES
Determining data and research adequacy consists of several
tasks operationally inseparable from other elements of the TA.
6-1
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6-2
As shown in Figure 6-1, these tasks include: (1) gathering and
organizing the information and data base; (2) assessing information
and data quality and hardness and, where possible, performing
sensitivity and parametric analyses; (3) identifying research
needs; and (4) defining research and data requirements. Major
elements of these tasks are essential inputs into both the data
adequacy report and the TA report itself, including a specification
of the adequacy and quality of data and models. These tasks
combine to form the data-gathering and evaluation process that is
shown in Figure 6-2. This should be viewed as being an iterative
process that continually responds to specific data and information
needs.
6.3 INFORMATION AND DATA BASE
The initial phases of research adequacy consist of specifying
the TA's information and data requirements and gathering and
organizing the information and data base. Some specific data
requirements for this TA have been defined in previous chapters.
As indicated there, major sources include generally:
1. Direct contact with EPA, its laboratories, and sponsored
research programs;
2. Direct contact with federal and state agencies which are
conducting relevant research;•*•
There are several major efforts presently underway to
identify ongoing energy-related research and development in the
West. These include: a joint project by the Old West Regional
Commission and Surface Environment and Mining (SEAM) program
called "The Energy Research Information System"; a project being
coordinated through the Western Governors Regional Energy Office;
and a project at the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory (LASL).
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6-3
DESCRIPTIVE PHASE
TASKS
INTERACTIVE PHASE
TASKS
INTEGRATIVE PHASE
TASKS
GATHER INFORMATION AND DATA BASE
ASSESS DATA QUALITY AND SENSITIVITY
IDENTIFY RESEARCH NEEDS
DEFINE RESEARCH AND DATA REQUIREMENTS
Figure 6-1: Overview of the Data Availability
and Research Adequacy Task
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6-4
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6-5
3. Direct contact with relevant private research
programs;2
4. Contractual and on-line computerized search
services (for example, Technology Application
Center, Smithsonian Science Information
Exchange, Systems Development Corporation,
and the Lockheed Dialog System);
5. Systematically reviewing periodicals, newsletters,
and newspapers from the western states.
In the interest of integration with other research programs,
information collection will include direct personal contacts
with other researchers. This is intended to insure that we
are aware of the most current information available (since
bibliographies and computerized data bases may have backlogs
of a year or more). No single source will be all inclusive
and combinations of sources will have to be used.
The information described above is being entered into
information and data files at both S&PP and Radian. As reports
are acquired, they are abstracted and indexed with key words;
For example, Atomic Energy Commission, Oak Ridge National
Laboratory (1974) Inventory of Current Energy Research and
Development. Washington: Government Printing Office, 3 vols.;
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development
(1975) Indexed Bibliography of Office of Research and Development
Reports Updated to January 1975. Washington: Government printing
Office.
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6-6
an example of key word headings is shown in Table 6-1. In
addition, team members with primary responsibility for a particular
task are compiling lists of data sources and needs in a form
compatible with the centralized information and data file.
6.4 ASSESSMENT OF DATA QUALITY AND SENSITIVITY
The assessment of data quality is being conducted primarily
by investigators responsible for specific analytical tasks. All
team members have a responsibility for assessing the quality of
data, and in instances where the sensitivity of the analysis to
particular data is high, the primary assessment is reviewed by
other members of the research team. General comments or specific
reports on the quality of data are systematically incorporporated
into the overall information and data system. General survey
reports are assessed primarily in terms of the adequacy of their
documentation, while technical reports, models, or engineering
documents are evaluated on the basis of their assumptions,
methodology, and data base. Although the quality of some data
can be described quantitatively in terms of a likely range of
error, much of the data must be evaluated qualitatively.
Sensitivity and parametric analyses are analytical tools
which will be utilized, when possible, in the evaluation of data
adequacy. Both techniques are used to estimate the effects of
changes in either initial assumptions or discrete and continuous
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6-7
TABLE 6-1: SECTION OF KEYWORD LIST FOR
WESTERN ENERGY TA DATA FILE1
Compression
Consol Synthetic Fuel Process
BT Coal liquefaction - hydrogenation
Cooling
Cooling lakes
UF Cooling ponds
Cooling ponds
Use Cooling lakes
Cooling towers
Cooling water
Core drilling
RT Exploratory drilling
Corrosion mechanisms
Cost-benefit analysis
Costeam process
Cracking processes
Crude oil
NT demetallation
desulfurization
development
Use production
exploration
NT regulations
pipelines
production
UF development
well completion
NT drilling
NT economics
regulations
field processing
UF Field processing - crude oil
improved recovery
refining
UF Petroleum refining
NT product transportation
refinery siting
regulations
reserves
resources
storage
well completion
Use production
Culm piles
Use Coal mining - waste disposal
Demographic economics
Desulfurization
UF Sulfur removal
SN (may also be used as a subheading)
This keyword list includes notation for the user so that
subordinate terms can be related to other terms for cross
referencing or t» select more appropriate terms: BT = broader
term; NT = narrower term; RT = related term; UF = used for;
SN = scope note (qualifies as a term); Use = refer to (directs
user to the correct terms).
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6-8
input parameters on outputs and conclusions. When applied to
analytic models, sensitivity and parametric analyses can provide
the range of outcomes associated with variables of high
uncertainty or identify variables which significantly affect
conclusions. This indicates that these parameters should receive
additional emphasis. Although this kind of analysis can be
applied to both quantitative and qualitative analyses, they will
be used primarily in conjunction with quantitative models.
6.5 IDENTIFICATION OF RESEARCH NEEDS
As the TA progresses, specific data needs within tasks are
being identified. A major element of the research adequacy task
will be the comparison of these data needs, with research being
conducted on an in-house and extramural basis by federal and
state agencies and private organizations. The results of this
comparison will provide the basis of an integrated description
of recommendations for further research in support of this
s tudy.
6.6 ANTICIPATED RESULTS
The primary product of the research adequacy effort in the
first year will be the Research Adequacy Report. As noted
earlier, the purpose of this report is twofold: first, to
evaluate the ability of current research programs to support an
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6-9
assessment of western energy resource development; and second,
to provide specific research recommendations in areas where the
current research effort is found to be deficient.
The research adequacy effort will also provide support for
the first year TA report by identifying uncertainties in the
data and indicating sensitivities in the models used for impact
and policy analyses. This will permit a realistic interpretation
of the results in the report.
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CHAPTER 7
PROPOSED PERFORMANCE SCHEDULE
7.1 INTRODUCTION
The performance schedule for the first year is organized to
correspond to the four major reporting requirements for the first
year: First Year Work Plan; Technology Assessment (TA) report;
Research Adequacy; and Second and Third Year Work Plan. The
schedule for each provides for internal reviews by the S&PP-Radian
research team and external review by an advisory committee,
consultants, selected representatives of parties-at-interest, the
Western Energy Resource Development Sector Group, and the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Our objective is to expose
draft reports to extensive reviews to insure that: (1) persons
and organizations interested in western energy resource
development have an opportunity to comment on and criticize the
TA while it is being conducted; (2) factual information is
accurate and the best that is available; (3) analyses are
critically reviewed to identify biases and logical inconsistencies;
and (4) a broad range of significant problems and issues likely
to arise are analyzed. The dates for draft and final reports
are those specified by the original contract or modifications to
it. All other dates are best estimates and subject to change.
7-1
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7-2
7.2 THE PERFORMANCE SCHEDULE FOR THE FIRST YEAR
The schedules for the TA report. Research Adequacy, and
the Second and Third Year Work Plan are outlined in the following
subsections. This will be followed by a summary schedule of
items of particular importance. This schedule is graphically
presented in Figure 7-1.
7.2.1 First Year TA Report
The performance of the first year TA is actually an
integration of the Descriptive, Interactive, and Integrative
Phases (as presented in Section 2.2) plus the appendices. For
this reason, the schedules of the three phases and the appendices
precede the preparation of the first year TA report in the
following presentation.
Descriptive Phase
Date Task or Activity
February 16, 1976 Revise all site-specific descriptions
February 20 All aggregated descriptions due
February 23 Review all aggregated descriptions
February 25 Revise all aggregated descriptions
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7-3
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7-4
Interactive Phase
Date
March 5, 1976
March 12
March 17
Task or Activity
All first level analysis due
Review of all first level analysis
Revise all first level analysis
Integrative Phase
Date
March 15, 1976
March 23
March 27
April 15
April 21
April 26
April 28
April 30
May 5
Task or Activity
Illustrative impact analysis and
initial policy analysis due
Exchange comments on illustrative
impact analysis and policy analysis
Revise illustrative impact analysis
and policy analysis
All second level analysis and final
policy analysis due
Comment on all second level analysis
due
Recommendations for implementation
strategies
Revised second level analysis due
Comments on recommendations for
implementation strategies due
Revised recommendations for
implementation strategies due
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7-5
Appendices to First Year TA
Date
February 16, 1976
March 15
March 19
March 22-26
March 26
April 30
Task or Activity
Radian's review draft regional overview
description due
S&PP's revised draft of the regional
overview description due
Radian's final draft of ERDS
descriptions due
Revise draft of ERDS descriptions
ERDS descriptions complete
Regional overview complete
First Year TA Report
Date
March 26, 1976
April 2
May 7
May 10-28
June 4
June 18
June 18-July 5
July 6
July 12-15
July 16
T_ask_ or Activity
Outline of first year TA report due
Comments on outline due
Draft TA report due
Type draft TA report
Results of internal review due
Revise draft report due
Type revised draft report
Mail revised draft report to EPA
and external reviewers
Internal S&PP-Radian review
Meet with Advisory Committee to review
the revised draft report and the enerav
resource development systems
description
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7-6
Date Task or Activity
July 18-30 Revise
August 2-20 Type final report
August 27 Final correction due
September 3 Mail final first year TA report
7.2.2 Research Adequacy Schedule
The information required for preparing this report has been
and will continue to be collected as a part of all other research
tasks being performed by team members. In addition, the
librarians, research assistants, and person responsible for
liaison with relevant research projects are systematically
compiling information on research adequacy as described in Chapter
6. The schedule outlined here includes only tasks from the
present to submission of the Research Adequacy report.
Date Task or Activity
November 1, 1975 - Compilation of research adequacy
May 14, 1976 information as indicated in Chapter 6
of work plan completed
May 14 S&PP-Radian exchange inputs
May 21 Comments due
May 28 Edited draft due
May 28-June 4 Type
June 11 Internal review due
June 18 Revised draft due
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7-7
Date Task or Activity
June 21-July 6 Type
July 7 Mail draft report to EPA and external
reviewers
July 16 Internal review and meet with
Advisory Committee
August 13 Comments from reviewers due
September 3 Revised draft due
t
September 17 Final corrections due; type final
September 24 Mail final
7.2.3 Schedule for the Second and Third Year Work Plan
Date Task or Activity
May 14, 1976 S&PP-Radian exchange inputs
May 21 Comments due
May 28 Edited draft due
May 28-June 4 Type
June 11 Internal review due
June 18 Revised draft due
June 21-July 6 Type
July 7 Mail draft report to EPA and external
reviewers
July 16 Internal review and meet with Advisory
Committee
August 13 Comments from reviewers due
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7-8
Date Task or Activity
September 17 Final corrections due; type final
September 24 Mail final
7.2.4 Summary Schedule
The dates and tasks and activities listed below integrate
some of the most important items from the four separate schedules,
Date Task or Activity
July 6, 1976 ' Mail draft research adequacy report
and draft second and third year work
plan report to EPA and selected
external reviewers
July 6 Mail revised first year TA report to
EPA and external reviewers
July 15-16 Meet with Advisory Committee
September 3 Mail final first year TA report
September 24 Mail final research adequacy report
and final second and third year work
plan report
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CHAPTER 8
REPORTING RESULTS OF THE FIRST YEAR TA
8.1 INTRODUCTION
The products to be produced by this technology assessment
(TA) have been generally described either explicitly or implicitly
in the preceding chapters. These research products are intended
to meet the needs of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
and a broad range of the participants in the various policy
systems included in the study. This chapter describes some of
the major objectives for these products and how research results
will be presented to achieve them.
8.2 BASELINE DATA COMPILATION
As noted in Chapter 3, our baseline data are being organized
into a systematic format called energy resource development system
(ERDS). These descriptions of energy resources, technological
alternatives, and social controls can be extremely important in
a number of ways. First, the technological descriptions included
in the ERDS's are written to be understandable by nonengineers.
As such, they can help to educate a broad range of interested,
but technologically relatively uninformed participants. The
S&PP-Radian team's past experiences suggest that the availability
8-1
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8-2
of these kinds of descriptions helps to raise the level of public
debate over problems and issues which become matters of great
national concern.
In addition, the ERDS descriptions are designed to facilitate
the systematic comparison of energy alternatives. Except for the
addition of sections on social controls, the format corresponds
to the data and analyses standardized by the MERES (Matrix of
Environmental Residuals for Energy Systems) system of the
Council on Environmental Quality. These technological and social
control descriptions will serve as a planning handbook for private
individuals and groups, as well as local and state government
officials and federal agencies. Given this systematic,
standardized format, the ERDS will facilitate comparisons of the
alternatives being evaluated, discussed, prepared, or otherwise
considered.
An additional set of baseline data is contained in the
Regional Description. The general information on the western
U.S. contained therein helps the reader to understand the context
in which western energy resources are being developed—and in
which the TA will be conducted. Again, the team has a policy
goal in mind: better informed public debate o problems and
issues. This descriptive product should be of particular value
to persons who are not familiar with the western U.S.
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8-3
The scenarios also describe what is required in terms of
time, materials, personnel, capital, etc., for representative
energy developments to occur. These requirements differ by
technology, by resource, and by location. Comparisons of
requirements will both contribute local information and provide
a representative overview of what is involved in energy
development. Private individuals and government officials will
be able to see clearly the overall scope of activity associated
with development in a local area and in large regions.
8.3 ANALYTICAL RESULTS
The bulk of the TA report identifies impacts from energy
development, as well as gaps in knowledge, data, and analytical
tools. The impacts are assessed within the policy analysis
framework, resulting in the identification of problems and
issues, policymaking systems, trade-offs, and possible
accommodations by concerned parties. The report will make
underlying assumptions explicit, identify data and tool
limitations, report costs and benefits using a variety of
measures, and give an indication of which values and interests
would be promoted by various alternatives. Finally, the report
will include recommendations based on stated assumptions, which
indicate which courses of action the team believes to be in the
overall national interest, taking local and state interests into
account.
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8-4
8.4 RESEARCH ADEQUACY
As noted above, there is to be a separate report on research
adequacy. This report is intended to assist the EPA's Office of
Research and Development in evaluating the adequacy of its
research program for supporting a TA of western energy development.
The report will identify areas which limit the TA and will make
specific recommendations for how these limitations might be
overcome.
8.5 DISTRIBUTION OF RESULTS
The baseline data and the reports are to be made available
to a large number of officials and individuals through widespread
distribution of both draft and final versions. Presentation and
interpretation of the TA report's findings and recommendations
will be made public further through visits by the S&PP-Radian
team to sites and government offices throughout the West during
the second and third years.
As indicated in S&PP-Radian1s proposal, the team believes
that for a TA to be well-informed, credible, and useful,
parties-at-interest, particularly potential users of the reported
results, must be kept informed and involved from the outset of
the assessment. Almost immediately after the contract was awarded,
efforts were begun to make contact with the multiple
parties-at-interest likely to be important to this study. Federal
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8-5
agencies, state governments, energy industries, intergovernmental
organizations, energy and environmental researchers, and interest
groups, were among those contacted. As the study has progressed,
these contacts have broadened. Consequently, potential users of
the report have already been involved and will continue to be.
These potential users will have had an opportunity to contribute
to the study by commenting on drafts, furnishing information and
data, or in some other way. The report will thus be available to
users already familiar with the work, and should be immediately
usable. The effort of involving potential users will continue in
the second and third years as subsequent reports are prepared.
In addition to the basic report, there will be an executive
summary detailing major findings, policy issues, and
recommendations providing easy access to the results of the TA
for all interested individuals, groups, and governments. This
will be designed to be distributed even more widely than the full
TA report, so that other potential users can become familiar with
the study by reading an abbreviated report of the first year's
results.
-------
CHAPTER 9
TENTATIVE PLANS FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD YEARS
9.1 INTRODUCTION
At the present time, detailed plans for the second and third
years have not been formulated; however, the contract requires
that three assessments be completed, the second and third to be
iterations of the first and second; and the expectation is that
each iteration will update, refine, improve, fill in gaps, and
analyze in greater depth, impacts, problems, and issues which
prove to be particularly significant. As indicated in Chapter 7,
the reporting schedule now requires that the draft second and
third year work plan report be submitted by September 24, 1976.
This is after the first year Technology Assessment (TA) report
will have been completed, and will permit members of the S&PP-
Radian research team to benefit fully from the first year's
assessment before committing themselves to a plan for the second
and third years. However, formulating this work plan for the
first year has required the team to think about the full three
year effort. The tentative plans presented in this chapter are
a product of that advanced planning.
9-1
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9-2
9.2 OVERALL
As noted above, when available, new and better data will be
used, as will new or improved analytical tools. The goal will be
to update and upgrade the results of the first year TA as a basis
for developing generalizations about the likely consequences
of western energy development.
The identification of higher order impacts is also expected
to receive increased emphasis during the second and third years.
Greater emphasis will also be given to determining the sensitivity
of results to particular assumptions and values in all impact
categories.
A continuing effort will be made to review the state of society
assumptions that the team made at the outset. Given the highly
speculative nature of all forecasting, the team believes it to
be essential that the treatment of these assumptions be carefully
reviewed and revised at least annually.
The illustrative net energy analyses conducted during the
first year will probably be extended; and additional analyses
will be added if possible.
9.3 SCENARIOS
Technologies for developing all six resources will be
monitored closely to insure that the alternatives included in the
scenarios are realistic choices for the specified time periods.
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9-3
Particular attention will be given to process modifications and
new and improved environmental control technologies.
It is expected that additional site-specific scenarios will
be developed to raise issues either not raised or not treated in
depth during the first year. For example, it is expected that
a geothermal scenario will be developed for either Thermo, Utah
or the Salton Sea area of California, and the assessment of
the nuclear fuel cycle might be expanded beyond the uranium
milling stage, the limit established for the first year assessment
of uranium technologies. Additional technological alternatives
will also be added as new technical data become available from
ongoing research. Possible technologies include, for example,
low-Btu coal gasification coupled with on-site electricity
generation, the use of fluidized-bed boilers, and in-situ
coal gasification and in-situ oil shale retorting.
During the second and third years, the aggregated scenarios
will receive more detailed attention. For example, a broader
range of national issues resulting from western regional
development will be analyzed. In part, this more detailed
analysis might be possible because of refinements now being added
to the Project Independence interfuel competition model. Another
model which may be used to identify national impacts from western
energy development is the Environmental Protection Agency's
(EPA) Strategic Environmental Assessment Systems (SEAS). This
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9-4
model might be used to identify relationships such as the impact
on various supply industries, for example, mining equipment,
from various levels of western energy development; in addition,
it could be a useful tool for forecasting regional energy demand.
9.4 IMPACT ANALYSIS
It is expected that all the categories of impact analysis
will be revised and to some extent expanded as additional
information becomes available during the second and third years.
The qualitative studies of impacts attributed to air and water
quality, and to socioeconomic conditions, have been identified
as areas to receive more attention during the second and third
years.
In air quality, several research projects currently underway
are attempting to identify the chemical kinetics of sulfate and
oxidant formation. As results from these projects become
available, it is hoped that the team will be able to identify
more precisely cause and effect relationships between these
pollutants and their effects on man and the ecosystem.
In the first year analysis, water quality was described
primarily in terms of salinity. In the second and third year
effort, a more detailed analysis utilizing additional parameters
will be conducted.
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9-5
No new topics are expected to be added to the ecological
task in the second and third years. However, certain topics,
treated generally in the first year will receive more- detailed
attention. These may include:
1. Effects of human disturbance on wildlife. A concerted
effort to obtain first-hand observations and case
history data will not be possible until the second or
third year.
2. Options for the protection and management of
representative ecological systems (as opposed to
individual species populations).
3. Impact of agricultural expansion during the remainder
of the century.
4. Impacts of increased recreation pressure in specific
ecologically sensitive areas, such as the wilderness
areas of the White River National Forest in Colorado.
In the socioeconomic impact analysis, new employment
multipliers may be estimated utilizing relatively new techniques
which are more suitable for localities in rural areas than the
presently available multipliers which are being used in the first
year assessment. Also, the results of current studies which are
monitoring the views of individuals affected by current development
towards that development may be available in the second and third
years. To complement these studies, the team plans to do more
interviewing during visits to the western region.
Several important aspects of the health effects impact of
energy development have been delayed until the second and third
years of the study in anticipation (hope) that improved data from
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9-6
basic research will permit a more definitive treatment than is
now possible. In addition, refinements of air quality predictions
and the demographic aspects of the socioeconomic analysis during
the second and third years will improve the basis for assessing
indirect impacts to public health.
Topics tentatively scheduled for attention during this
pe r iod include:
1. Impacts of "noncriteria" pollutants; for example:
Trace elements and polynuclear aromatic compounds will
be studied.
2. Occupational and public health implications of
accidents.
3. Identification of particularly susceptible population
subgroups and preliminary estimation of the frequency
of pollution-related illness throughout entire
populations.
4. Impacts of "urban plumes" on public health.
5. Implications for health care delivery of rapid
population growth.
9.5 POLICY ANALYSIS
Policy analysis will receive major emphasis during the
second and third years. Since it is at this stage in the TA
that the results of everything else get integrated, policy
analysis during the first year will necessarily have to focus
primarily on the problems and issues identified before the TA
got underway. During the second and third years, the analysis
of these can be extended to take into account more nuances and
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9-7
subtleties; and the number of alternatives analyzed and compared
can be extended. However, the first and second year TA's may
also surface a number of unanticipated problems and issues,
particularly as higher order consequences receive more and more
attention. These will receive special attention.
Another aspect of policy analysis that will receive special
attention during the second and third years is implementation
strategies. One aspect of this will be to acquire a more
in-depth knowledge of the relevant policymaking systems. This
will include, for example, more detailed examination of both
formal and informal structures and institutions, governmental and
nongovernmental participants, authorities and jurisdictions,
operating style and procedures, and past records and achievements.
This in-depth knowledge will be a prerequisite to any really
meaningful evaluation of implementation strategies.
At a more general level, the increased emphasis on policy
analysis will be aimed at enhancing the credibility of the team's
results by demonstrating to policymakers that the team has been
sensitive to the range of values, interests, etc., that the
policymakers have to concern themselves with in making hard
choices. One means for doing this is to maintain continuous contact
with the policymakers while the study is underway. These contacts
have been initiated and will be extended during the first year,
but the real basis for engaging the policymaker's attention will
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9-8
be the first year TA report. Consequently, policy analyses
during the second and third years will intensify contact with
individual policymakers and policymaking systems to get their
reactions. This is essential to learning in more detail about
their perceptions rtbout what is important, their notions about
alternatives and how to implement them, and their own
interpretations of what constrains the options available to them.
-------
APPENDIX A
PERSONS CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE FIRST YEAR WORK PLAN
The following list of names includes consultants, persons
who responded to a request for comments and suggestions on the
"Draft First Year Work Plan Report," or who contributed in some
other way to the development of this "First Year Work Plan."
Adams, William, Environmental Monitoring and Support Laboratory,
Las Vegas, NV i
Allen, Wallace B., Pacific Gas & Electric Company, San Francisco, CA
Ancell, Kenneth L., Energy Conversion Development, Panhandle
Eastern Pipe Line Company, Houston, TX
Anderson, Carl, Environmental Protection Department, Montana
Power Company, Butte, MT
Anderson, Frederick R., Environmental Law Institute, Washington, DC
Annison, Michael H., Federation of Rocky Mountain States, Inc.,
Denver, CO
Anthony, James H., Intermountain Power Project, Sandy, UT
Babb, Malcolm C., Water Quality Branch, Tennessee Valley
Authority, Chattanooga, TN
Baden, John, Dr., Department of Political Science, Utah State
University, Logan, UT
We apologize for any inadvertent omissions,
A-l
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A-2
Barch, Gene, Technology Application Center, University of New
Mexico, Albuquerque, NM
Barnes, Mickey, Council of Advisors for State Government,
Denver, CO
Barnett, Jack, Western States Water Council, Salt Lake City, UT
Bartlit, John R., New Mexico Citizens for Clean Air and Water,
Los Alamos, NM
Baughman, Martin, Dr., Center for Energy Research, University of
Texas, Austin, TX
Beezhold, Wendland, Montana MHD Project, Billings, MT
Bender, Lloyd, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT
Bigler, Craig, State Planning Office, Salt Lake City, UT
Bishop, Bruce, Dr., Utah State University, Logan, UT
Boldt, Robert E., Federal Energy Administration, Region IX,
San Francisco, CA
Bollen, W.M., Engineering and Research Development, Chevron
Research Company, Richmond, CA
Brelsford, Donald L., The Montana Energy and MHD Research and
Development Institute, Inc., Butte, MT
Brown, Lee F., Dr., Department of Economics, University of New
Mexico, Albuquerque, NM
Brown, Lowell, Bureau of Land Management, Billings District
Office, Billings, MT
Byrnes, Steve, Michigan-Wisconsin Pipeline Company, Bismarck, ND
Bywater, E.G., Upper Colorado Regional Office, Bureau of
Reclamation, Salt Lake City, UT
Campbell, Katherine, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM
Canter, Larry W., Dr., Department of Civil Engineering and
Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
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A-3
Caton, Doyle, Technology Application Center, University of
New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM
Carasso, Meir, Dr., Bechtel Corporation, San Francisco, CA
Cawlfield, George, Centralized Services Division, Montana
Department of Natural Resources and Conservation,
Helena, MT
Christiansen, Gene A., State Health Department, Bismarck, ND
Clatck, Ted, Montana Energy Advisory Council, Helena, MT
Coates, Joseph F., Office of Technology Assessment, Washington, DC
Colton, Alfred Q., Environmental Division, Salt River Project,
Phoenix, AZ
Coombes, Jasper H., Engineering Division, Albuquerque District,
Army Corps of Engineers, Albuquerque, NM
Grain, Don, Colorado Energy Advisory Council, Denver, CO
Crawford, Berry A., Dr., Rocky Mountain Institute for Policy
Research, Utah State University, Logan, UT
d'Arge, Ralph C., Dr., The University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY
Davis, Grant, U.S. Forest Service, Surface Environment and
Mining (SEAM) Program, Billings, MT
Dreshner, William H., Dean, College of Mines, University of
Arizona, Tucson, AZ
Englerth, Edward J., Division of Reclamation and Siting, Public
Service Commission, Bismarck, ND
Paver, Dudley, Federal Energy Administration, Region VIII,
Lakewood, CO
Finsterbusch, Kurt, Dr., Department of Sociology, University of
Maryland, College Park, MD
Flowers, Marilyn, Dr., Department of Economics, University of
Oklahoma, Norman, OK
Foley, Gary, Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC
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A-4
Foote, Bobbie, Dr., Department of Industrial Engineering,
University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
Ford, Andy, Simulating Modeling, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory,
Los Alamos, NM
Foster, Kennith E., Office of Arid Lands Studies, University of
Arizona, Tucson, AZ
Fredericks, Thomas W., Native American Rights Fund, Boulder, CO
Garabrandt, Howard R., Utilities Division, Arizona Corporation
Commission, Phoenix, AZ
Gardner, Del, Dr., Utah State University, Logan, UT
Gesell, Thomas E., Dr., School of Public Health, University of
Texas, Houston, TX
Gerhard, Lee C., North Dakota Geological Survey, Grand Forks, ND
Gibbs, Phil, Upper Missouri Region, Bureau of Reclamation,
Billings, MT
Gilmore, John S., Dr., Denver Research Institute, University of
Denver, Denver, CO
Givens, Beth, Old West Regional Commission, Billings, MT
Glass, Gary B., Wyoming Geological Survey, University of Wyoming,
Laramie, WY
Gold, Ray, Dr., Institute for Social Research, University of
Montana, Missoula, MT
Gordon, Clancy, Botany Department, Montana State University,
Bozeman, MT
Gordon, Richard L., Dr., Department of Mineral Economics,
Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA
Goslin, Ival, Upper Colorado River Commission, Salt Lake City, UT
Gray, James R., Dr., Department of Agricultural Economics and
Agricultural Business, New Mexico State University,
Las Cruces, NM
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Grew, Priscilla C., Lake Powell Research Project, Institute of
Geophysics, University of California at Los Angeles,
Los Angeles, CA
Gronhovd, Gordon H., Grand Forks Energy Research Laboratory,
Grand Forks, ND
Hagen, Robert H., Environmental Protection Agency, Region VIII,
Denver, CO
Hale, David P., Interstate Stream Commission, State of New Mexico,
Santa Fe, NM
Hansen, Dee, Division of Water Rights, Salt Lake City, UT
Hansen, Roger, American National Bank, Denver, CO
Hayes, Louis, Dr., Bureau of Government Research, University of
Montana, Missoula, MT
Heimbach, James, jr., Dr., Department of Meteorology, Montana
State University, Bozeman, MT
Henderson, Paul, Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories,
Richland, WA
Hickey, H.R., Tennessee Valley Authority, Chattanooga, TN
Hinman, George, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM
Hodder, Richard L., Dr., Roadside Stabilization and Land
Reclamation, Montana Agriculture Experiment Station,
Montana State University, Bozeman, MT
Holland, Richard, Water Quality Division, Environmental
Improvement Agency, Santa Fe, NM
Howard, William C., Jr., Bureau of Indian Affairs, Shiprock
Agency, Shiprock, NM
Huffman, Roy, Dr., Montana State University, Bozeman, MT
Hulburt, Charles W., Engineering Systems Division, Stanford
Research Institute, Arlington, VA
Hurst, Thomas L., Dr., Environmental Services, Kerr-McGee
Corporation, Oklahoma City, OK
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A-6
Ingene, Charles, Dr., Department of Economics, University of
Ok1ahoma, Norman, OK
Ingram, Helen, Dr., Institute for Government Research, University
of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
Johns, Skip, Office of Technology Assessment, Washington, DC
Jones, Charles O., Dr., Department of Political Science,
University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
Judy, Clark, Dr., Yellowstone-Tongue Area Planning Organization,
Broadus, MT
Kauffman, Kenneth O., Engineering Planning Systems Branch,
Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO
King, Gorman H., Falkirk Mining Company, Bismarck, ND
Kinney, Wesley, Monitoring Operations for Water, Environmental
Monitoring and Support Laboratory, Las Vegas, NV
Kneese, Allen, Department of Economics, University of New
Mexico, Albuquerque, NM
Krieth, Frank, Dr., Chemical Engineering Department, University
of Colorado, Boulder, CO
Lawrence, Robert, Dr., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
Lefohn, Allen S., Dr., Corvallis Environmental Research Laboratory,
Corvallis, OR
LeGassie, Roger W.A., Environmental Research and Development
Administration, Washington, DC
Leistritz, F. Larry, Dr., North Dakota Regional Environmental
Assessment Program, Bismarck, ND
Leonard, Ellen, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM
Lewis, W. Cris, Dr., Utah State University, Logan, UT
Lindvig, Milton O., Hydrology Division, North Dakota State Water
Commission, Bismarck, ND
Lohrding, Ronald K., Dr., Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory,
Los Alamos, NM
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Macbill, Si, State Wildlife Commission, Logan, UT
Malefant, Dick, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM
Maletic, John T., Colorado River Water Quality Office, Bureau
of Reclamation, Denver, CO
Martin, Donald L., Fort Worth Regional Office, Federal Power
Commission, Fort Worth, TX
Martinka, Bob, Montana Fish and Game Department, Miles City
Regional Office, Miles City, MT
McCullough, Edgar J., Jr., Department of Geosciences, University
of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
McFarland, James, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM
McGowan, Terry, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Fort Collins, CO
McKay, Mike, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM
Meeker, Leonard, Center for Law and Social Policy, Washington, DC
Metzger, Charles F., Dr., Energy Coordinator for the Governor,
Bismarck, ND
Miller, Daniel N., Jr., The Geological Survey of Wyoming, Laramie, WY
Moore, Richard T., Arizona Bureau of Mines, Tucson, AZ
Morgan, David R., Dr., Political Science Department, University of
Oklahoma, Norman, OK
Morgan, Stanley A., Dr., Remote Sensing Program, Technology
Application Center, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM
Myres, Dick, U.S. Geological Survey, Washington, DC
Natwig, Eric, Office of Program Development, The Navajo Tribe,
Window Rock, AZ
Nelson, Richard Besson, Bureau of Indian Affairs, Shiprock Agency,
Shiprock, NM
Neuberger, John W., Missouri River Basin Commission, Omaha, NB
Noble, Bill D., Bureau of Land Management, Billings, MT
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0'Bryan, Carey, Technology Application Center, University of
New Mexico, Albuquerque, MM
O'Keefe, Terrence B., Division of Economic and Business Research,
College of Business and Public Administration, University of
Arizona, Tucson, AZ
Okrent, David, University of California, Los Angeles, CA
Payne, Gene, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT
Pearson, Gary L., D.V.M., U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,
Jamestown, ND
Pearson, Paul B., Department of Nutrition and Food Science,
University of Arizona, Tucscon, AZ
Perry, Harry, Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington, DC
Peterson, Dean, Dr., Utah State University, Logan, UT
Phillips, Ken A., Mineral Resource, Arizona Department of
Mineral Resources, Phoenix, AZ
Pier, Stanley M., Dr., School of Public Health, University of
Texas, Houston, TX
Potter, Joe, Monitoring Systems Research, Environmental
Monitoring and Support Laboratory, Las Vegas, NV
Rechard, Paul, Dr., Water Resources Research Institute,
University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY
Reuss, John, Montana Environmental Quality Council, Helena, MT
Riley, Paul, Dr., Department of Civil Engineering, Utah State
University, Logan, UT
Robinson, Bill, Office of Energy Management, State of North
Dakota, Bismarck, ND
Saunders, Berry, Division of Water Resources, Salt Lake City, UT
Sawyer, James W., Jr., Resources for the Future, Washington, DC
Schmidt, Richard A., Dr., Fossil Fuels Department, Electric
Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA
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Scudella, George, Energy Analysis, New Mexico Environmental
Improvement Agency, Santa Fe, NM
Severs, Richard K., Dr., School of Public Health, University of
Texas, Houston, TX
Shelton, Dick, Powder River Areawide Planning Organization,
Sheridan, WY
Silverman, Arnie, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT
Simpson, Hal, Division of Water Resources, Department of Resources,
Denver, CO
Smith, B.B., Kennecott Copper Corporations, Salt Lake City, UT
Snelling, Robert, Monitoring Operations, Environmental Monitoring
and Support Laboratory, Las Vegas, NV
Salomon, Stephen N., Dr., Nuclear Energy Center Site Survey,
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC
Spitzer, Elroy F., AWWA Research Foundation, American Water Works
Association, Denver, CO
Stirling, Alice, Institute for Social Research, University of
Montana, Missoula, MT
Stone, Mike, Wyoming Fish and Game Department, State Office,
Cheyenne, WY
Strickland, Dale, Wyoming Fish and Game Department, State Office,
Cheyenne, WY
Stroup, Richard L., Dr., College of Letters and Sciences,
Montana State University, Bozeman, MT
Shuder, Jeanette, Old West Regional Commission, Billings, MT
Tharaldson, Ardell, United Plainsmen, Bismarck, ND
Thatcher, Lynn, Bureau of Environmental Health, Salt Lake City, UT
Thomas, Jim, Water Quality Bureau, Department of Health,
Billings, MT
Thompson, Dennis, Arizona Office of Economic Planning and
Development, Phoenix, AZ
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Thorud, David B., College of Agriculture, University of Arizona,
Tucson, AZ
Tikka, Ray, U.S. Forest Service, Thunder Basin National Grasslands,
Douglas, WY
Trelease, Frank, State Water Planning Program, State of Wyoming,
Cheyenne, WY
Tweedy, George A., Federal Energy Administration, Phoenix, AZ
Udis, Bernard, Dr., Department of Economic Research, University
of Colorado, Boulder, CO
Vanderwalker, John, Northern Great Plains Resource Program,
Denver, CO
Van Meter, Wayne, Chemistry Department, Montana State University,
Bozeman, MT
Walker, Ray, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM
Warnock, James F., Jr., Solar Research Commission, Phoenix, AZ
Weisbecker, Leo W., Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, CA
Weismera, Bruce, Monitoring Systems Research and Development
Division, Environmental Monitoring and Support Laboratory,
Las Vegas, NV
Welch, William H., College of Engineering Sciences, Arizona
State University, Tempe, AZ
Williams, Theodore T., Department of Civil Engineering, Montana
State University, Bozeman, MT
Williamson, Art, Department of Environmental Quality, Division
of Water Quality, Cheyenne, WY
Woodson, Herbert, Dr., Center for Energy Research, University of
Texas, Austin, TX
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APPENDIX B
AN OUTLINE OF THE OIL SHALE
ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT SYSTEM
As discussed in Chapter 3, an energy resource
development system (ERDS) description is being prepared
for each of the resources: coal, oil shale, oil, natural
gas, uranium, and geothermal. Following is an outline of
the ERDS description for oil shale.
B-l
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OIL SHALE RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT SYSTEM
INTRODUCTION
PART I: The Resource Base
A. Total Resource Endowment
B. Characteristics of the Resource
C. Location of the Resource
D. Ownership of the Resource
PART II: Resource Development
A. Exploration
1. Technological Alternatives
a. Residuals
b. Materials Requirements
c. Manpower Requirements
d. Economic Costs
e. Energy Efficiencies
2. Social Controls
B. Mining
1. Surface Mining
a. Residuals
b. Materials Requirements
c. Manpower Requirements
d. Economic Costs
e. Energy Efficiencies
2. Underground Mining
a. Residuals
b. Materials Requirements
c. Manpower Requirements
d. Economic Costs
e. Energy Efficiencies
3. Mining Social Controls
C. Processing
1. TOSCO II Retort
a. Residuals
b. Materials Requirements
c. Manpower Requirements
d. Economic Costs
e. Energy Efficiencies
2. Paraho Retort
a. Residuals
b. Materials Requirements
c. Manpower Requirements
d. Economic Costs
e. Energy Efficiencies
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B-3
3. Union Retort
a. Residuals
b. Materials Requirements
c. Manpower Requirements
d. Economic Costs
e. Energy Efficiencies
4. In-situ Retorting
a. Residuals
b. Materials Requirements
c. Manpower Requirements
d. Economic Costs
e. Energy Efficiencies
5. Processing Social Controls
D. Reclamation
1. Technological Alternatives
a. Residuals
b. Materials Requirements
c. Manpower Requirements
d. Economic Costs
e. Energy Consumption
2. Social Controls
E. Transportation
1. Pipelines
a. Residuals
b. Materials Requirements
c. Manpower Requirements
d. Economic Costs
e. Energy Efficiencies
2. Social Controls
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APPENDIX C
USEFUL EXTERNAL SOURCES ON IMPACTS, PROBLEMS, AND ISSUES
A. STATE AND LOCAL
Atomic Energy Commission, Directorate of Licensing (December 1974)
Final Environmental Statement Related to Operation of Shirley
Basin Uranium Mill, Utah International, Inc. Washington:
AEC.
Bassett, F. B. (1973) Upper Colorado Mainstem Region Social-Economic
Profile. Boulder, Colorado: Western Interstate Commission
for Higher Education.
Bradley, Iver E., and J. P. Gander (1968) The Economics of Water
Allocation in Utah; An Input-Output Analysis. Salt Lake
City: University of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business
Research.
Colorado West Area Council of Governments (1974) Oil Shale and
the Future of a Region; Garfield, Mesa, and Rio Blanco
Counties, Colorado - A Summary Report.
West Area Council of Governments.
N.p. : Colorado
Crawford, A. Berry, Herbert H. Fullerton, and W. Cris Lewis (1975)
Baseline Description of Socio-Economic Conditions in the
Uintah Basin, Phase I of a Two-Phase Impact Analysis of
Proposed Oil Shale Development prepared for the White River
Shale Oil Project. Providence, Utah: Western Environmental
Associates, Inc.
Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, and
North Dakota Agricultural Experiment Station (1975) Progress
Report; Research on Reclamation of Strip-Mined Lands in the
Northern Great Plains. Mandan, North Dakota: USDA.
Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service (1967) Soil
Survey—Treasure County, Montana. Washington: Government
Printing Office.
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Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service and Forest
Service; and Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land
Management (1971) Soil Survey—Powder River Area, Montana.
Washington: Government Printing Office.
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Indian Affairs, Albuquerque
Area Office, and Ute Mountain Ute Agency (1975) Draft
Environmental Statement of the Approval by the Department
of the Interior of a Lease of the Ute Mountain Ute Tribal
Lands for Uranium Exploration and Possible Mining.
Albuquerque: BIA.
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Indian Affairs, Planning
Support Group (1974) Final Environmental Statement; Crow
Ceded Area Coal Lease, Westmoreland Resources Mining
Proposal.
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Indian Affairs, Planning
Support Group (1975) Projected Coal Development, Crow
Indian Reservation: Draft Programmatic Statement. Billings,
Mont.: BIA.
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management (1973)
South Rosebud Planning Unit; Resource Study. Miles City,
Montana: BLM, Miles City District Office.
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management (1975)
Development of Energy Minerals in Northwest Colorado.
Denver: BLM.
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management (1975)
A Plan for White River Resource Area, Craig District,
Colorado. Denver: BLM.
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management (n.d.)
Coalwood Planning Unit: Resource Study. Miles City, Montana
BLM, Miles City District Office.
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Bureau
of Reclamation and Geological Survey (1975) Resource and
Potential Reclamation Evaluation: Hanna Basin Study Site -
Hanna Coal Field, Wyoming. Washington: Government Printing
Office.
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management; and
Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (1974) Summary;
Decker-Birney Resource Study. Billings, Mont.: BLM
(mimeographed).
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Department of the Interior, Bureau of Outdoor Recreation,
Mid-Continent Regional Office (1972) Draft Environmental
Statement: Proposed Canyon Lakes Project, Texas. Denver:
Bureau of Outdoor Recreation.
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (1974) Final
Environmental Statement; Initial Stage, Garrison Diversion
Unit, Pick-Sloan Missouri Basin Program, North Dakota.
Washington: Interior Dept. (with updated supplement).
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado
Region (1974) El Paso Coal Gasification Project, New Mexico:
Draft Environmental Statement. Salt Lake City: Bureau of
Reclamation.
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado
Region (1976) Final Environmental Statement; Proposed
Western Gasification Company (WESCO) Coal Gasification Project
and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International, Inc.,
New Mexico. Salt Lake City: Bureau of Reclamation, 2 vols.
Department of the Interior, Geological Survey (1974) Final
Environmental Statement: Proposed Plan of Mining and
Reclamation, Big Sky Mine, Peabody Coal Co., Coal Lease
M-15965, Colstrip, Montana. Reston, Va.: USGS.
Department of the Interior, Geological Survey (1975) Draft
Environmental Statement: Proposed Plan of Mining and
Reclamation, Bell Ayr South Mine, Amax Coal Co., Coal Lease
W-0317682, Campbell County, Wyoming. Reston, Va.: USGS.
Department of the Interior, Geological Survey and Bureau of
Reclamation; and Arizona Bureau of Mines (1969) Mineral and
Water Resources of Arizona, Arizona Bureau of Mines Bulletin
180. Tucson: The University of Arizona.
Dickenson, Douglas, Lois Johanson, and Roger D. Lee (1975)
Energy-Rich Utah: Natural Resources and Proposed Developments
Salt Lake City: Utah, Department of Community Affairs.
Gordon, C. C. (1975) A Proposal to the U.S. Forest Service for a
Cooperative Evaluation of the Potential for Air Pollution
Damage to Coniferous Vegetation in the Ashland Division of
the Custer National Forest. Missoula, Mont.: University of
Montana, Environmental Studies Program (mimeographed).
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Haroldsen, Ancel D. (1975) An Input-Output Model of the Montana
Economy. Bozeman, Mont.: Montana State University.
Hodder, R. L., and others (1975) Effect of Selective Replacement
o£ Coal Surface Mine Overburden Strata on Soil and
Hydrology Relationships. Bozeman, Mont.: Montana State
University, Montana Agricultural Experiment Station
(mimeographed).
Institute of Ecology (The), Environmental Impact Assessment Project
(1973) A Scientific: and Policy Review of the Draft
Environmental Impact Statement: Crow Ceded Area Coal Lease,
Westmoreland Resources Mining Proposal of the Bureau of
Indian Affairs, Department of the Interior. Washington: TIE.
Inter-Agency Team (Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land
Management and Geological Survey; Department of Agriculture,
Forest Service; and Interstate Commerce Commission) (1974)
Draft Environmental Statement: Development of Coal Resources
in the Eastern Powder River Coal Basin of Wyoming. Cheyenne,
Wyo.: BLM, 6 vols.
Jacobs, Mike (1975) One Time Harvest; Reflections on Coal and
Our Future. Jamestown, N.D.: North Dakota Farmers Union.
Keith, John E., Jay C. Andersen, and Calvin G. Clyde (1973)
The Economic Efficiency of Inter-Basin Agricultural Water
Transfers in Utah: A Mathematical Programming Approach.
Logan, Utah: Utah State University, Utah Water Research
Laboratory.
Leholm, Arlen, F. Larry Leistritz, and James S. Wieland (1975)
Profile of North Dakota's Coal Mine and Electric Power Plant
Operating Work Force, Agricultural Economics Report No. 100.
Fargo, N.D.: North Dakota State University, North Dakota
Agricultural Experiment Station.
Leistritz, F. Larry, Arlen G. Leholm, and Thor A. Hertsgaard
(1975) Projecting Public Sector Effects of a New Industry in
a Rural Area. Fargo, North Dakota: North Dakota State
University.
Lopach, James J., and Lauren S. McKinsey (1975) Handbook of Montana
Forms of Local Government. Missoula, Mont.: University of
Montana, Bureau of Government Research.
Luken, Ralph A. (1974) Economic and Social Impacts of Coal
Development in the 1970's for Mercer County, North Dakota,
report by Thomas E. Carroll Associates. Washington: Old
West Regional Commission.
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C-5
Matson, Roger A., and Jeanette B. Studer (1974) Energy Resources
Development in Wyoming's Powder River Basin: An Assessment
of Potential Social and Economic Impacts. Laramie, Wyoming:
University of Wyoming, Water Resources Research Institute.
Maxwell, Lynn C., and Richard Dawson (1973) County Population
Estimates. Laramie, Wyoming: University of Wyoming,
Division of Business and Economic Research.
Montana Academy of Sciences (1975) Proceedings of the Fort Union
Coal Field Symposium. Billings, Montana: Eastern Montana
College, Montana Academy of Sciences, 5 vols.
Montana State Department of Natural Resources and Conservation,
Energy Planning Division (1975) Final Environmental Impact
Statement on Colstrip Electric Generating Units 3 and 4,
500 Kilovolt Transmission Lines and Associated Facilities.
Helena, Mont.: Dept. of Natural Resources and Conservation,
7 vols.
Montana State Department of Planning and Economic Development
(1970) Montana Data Book. Helena: State of Montana,
Department of Planning and Economic Development.
New Mexico, Department of Development, Economic Development
Division, and University of New Mexico, Bureau of Business
and Economic Research (1974) Community Profile: Farmington,
New Mexico, 1974-75. Santa Fe: New Mexico, Department of
Development, Economic Development Division.
New Mexico State University, Agricultural Experiment Station and
Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain
Forest and Range Experiment Station (1975) Socio-Economic
Impact on Rural Communities of Developing New Mexico's Coal
Resources, Report for Project Agreement No. 16-408-CA. Las
Cruces, New Mexico: New Mexico State University.
Omodt, Hollis W., Fred W. Schroer, and Donald D. Patterson (1975)
The Properties of Important Agricultural Soils as Criteria
for Mined Land Reclamation. Fargo, N.D. : Department of
Soils, Agricultural Experiment Station, North Dakota State
University.
Phillips, Clynn, and others (1974) Wyoming Data Book. Laramie,
Wyo.: University of Wyoming, College of Commerce and
Industry, Division of Business and Economic Research.
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C-6
Peirce, H. Wesley, Stanton B. Keith, and Jan Carol Wilt (1970)
Coal, Oil, Natural Gas, Helium, and Uranium in Arizona,
Arizona Bureau of Mines Bulletin 182. Tucson: The
University of Arizona.
Rogers, R. D. (1975) Methylation of Mercury in a Terrestrial
Environment. Las Vegas, Nev.: Environmental Protection
Agency, Office of Research and Development, Environmental
Monitoring and Support Laboratory.
Sedway/Cooke (1975) Land and the Environment: Planning in
California Today. Los Altos, Calif.: William Kaufman,
Inc.
Taylor, John E. (1974) Grassland and Shrubland Plant Community
Classification in Eastern Montana, Research Proposal
submitted to SEAM. Bozeman, Mont.: Montana State University,
Department of Animal and Range Sciences (mimeographed).
THK Associates, Inc. (1974) Impact Analysis and Development
Patterns for the Oil Shale Region; Mesa, Garfield, and
Rio Blanco Counties, Colorado. Denver: THK Associates, Inc.
Tsao, Albert C. (1975) ERGIS Data Bank for Land and Resource
Utilization. Helena, Mont.: Department of Natural Resources.
University of Montana, Community Service Program (1975) A Study
of Social Impact of Coal Development in the Decker-Birney-
Ashland Area. Missoula, Mont.: University of Montana,
Community Service Program.
University of Wyoming (1969) Demographic Study of Wyoming;
Population in Transition. Laramie: University of Wyoming.
Utah, State Planning Coordinator (1975) Utah Process Model Runs;
Uintah Basin. Salt Lake City, Utah: State Planning
Coordinator.
Valley National Bank of Arizona, Economic Research Department
(1975) Arizona Statistical Review. Phoenix: Valley National
Bank of Arizona.
VTN Colorado (1975) Socioeconomic and Environmental Land Use
Survey - Moffat, Routt and Rio Blanco Counties, Colorado:
Summary Report. Denver: VTN Colorado.
Wistisen, Martin J. and Glen T. Nelson (1973) Kaiparowits
Socio-Economic Study. Provo, Utah: Center for Business
and Economic Research, Brigham Young University.
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Wyoming, Department of Economic Planning & Development (1974)
Coal and Uranium Development of the Powder River Basin—An
Impact Analysis.
B. REGIONAL
Ames Laboratory (ERDA), Iowa State University (1975) Atmospheric
Sciences: Potential of Energy Extraction Processes in the
Northern Great Plains for Heavy Metals Contamination and
Consequent Uptake and Turnover in a Range Ecosystem Model.
Proposal submitted to ERDA.
Anderson, Orson L. (1975) Utah Coal for Southern California
Power; The General Issues, Lake Powell Research Project
Bulletin No. 13. Los Angeles: University of California,
Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics.
Anderson, Orson L., and Jerrold E. Levy (1974) Collaborative
Research on Assessment of Man's Activities in the Lake
Powell Region, Proposal submitted to National Science
Foundation, Research Applied to National Needs. Los Angeles:
University of California, Institute of Geophysics and
Planetary Physics.
Barrett, Richard J., William A. Beyer, and Charles D. Kolstad
(1975) Rocky Mountain Energy 1974: Flow, Employment, Prices.
Los Alamos, New Mexico: Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory.
Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratories (1975) Regional Analysis
of the U.S. Electric Power Industry. Richland, Wash.:
Battelle, 6 vols.
Bender, Lloyd (1975) Predicting Employment in Four Regions of the
Western U.S., Economic Research Service, Technical Bulletin
No. 1529. Washington: Department of Agriculture.
Bender, Lloyd D., and Robert I. Coltrane (1975) Ancillary
Employment Multipliers for the Northern Plains Province.
Paper presented at the Joint Meetings of Western Agricultural
Economics Research Council's Committees on Natural Resource
Development and Community and Human Resource Development,
Reno, Nev., January 7-9, 1975.
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Bickert, Browne & Coddington & Associates, Inc. (1973) Attitudes
and Opinions Related to the Development of an Oil Shale
Industry, A Survey of Residents in Garfield, Mesa, and
Rio Blanco Counties and Public Officials in Garfield, Mesa,
Moffat, and Rio Blanco Counties. N.p.: Bickert, Browne
& Coddington & Associates, Inc.
Bourque, Phillip J. (1971) Forecasting with Input-Output. Seattle,
Wash.: University of Washington.
Bourque, Phillip J. and Millicent Cox (1970) An Inventory of
Regional Input-Output Studies in the United States.
Seattle, Wash.: University of Washington.
Bright, R. and others (1975) Air Quality Policy Analysis of
Electric Utilities: A Regional Perspective. Argonne,
Illinois: Argonne National Laboratory.
Carey, D., J. Wegner, 0. Anderson, G. Weatherford, and P. Perkins
(1975) Kaiparowits Handbook; Coal Resources, Lake Powell
Research Project Interim Report. Los Angeles: University
of California, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics.
Cazalet, Edward G. (1975) A Western Regional Energy Development
Study: Economics. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford Research
Institute.
Department of the Interior (1973) Final Environmental Statement
for the Geothermal Leasing Program. Washington: Government
Printing Office, 4 vols.
Department of the Interior (1973) Final Environmental Statement
for the Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Program. Washington:
Government Printing Office, 6 vols.
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management (1974)
Draft Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Federal Coal
Leasing Program. Washington: Government Printing Office,
2 vols.
Drost-Hansen, W., and Anitra Thorhaug (1974) Biologically Allowable
Thermal Pollution Limits, EPA Ecological Research Series.
Washington: Government Printing Office.
Environmental Monitoring and Support Laboratory, Monitoring
Operations Division,Water and Land Quality Branch (1975)
Implementation Plan: Assessment of Procedures for Monitoring
Nonpoint Source Pollutants in Surface Waters in the Oil
Shale Area of the Western United States. Las Vegas, Nev.:
Environmental Monitoring and Support Laboratory.
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Federal Power Commission, Bureau of Power (1972) Staff Report;
Study of Proposed Interconnection between Electric Reliability
Council of Texas and Southwest Power Pool. Fort Worth,
Texas: Federal Power Commission, Fort Worth Regional Office.
Federation of Rocky Mountain States, Inc. (1975) Summary of 1975
Rocky Mountain Land Use and Natural Resources Bills.
Denver, Colo.: Federation of Rocky Mountain States, Inc.
Frigerio, N. A., and others (1975) Regional Studies Program -
SITE; A Methodology for Assessment of Energy Facility
Siting Patterns. Argonne, 111.: Argonne National Laboratory.
Gary, James, ed. (1975) Proceedings of the Eighth Oil Shale
Symposium. Quarterly of the Colorado School of Mines 70
(July).
Henderson, E. B. and J. E. Levy (1975) Survey of Navajo Community
Studies 1936-1974, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin
No. 6. Los Angeles: University of California, Institute of
Geophysics and Planetary Physics.
Hundley, Norris, Jr. (1975) Water and the West: The Colorado
River Compact and the Politics of Water in the American West.
Los Angeles: University of California Press.
Institute of Ecology (The), Environmental Impact Assessment Project
(1973) A Scientific and Policy Review of the Prototype Oil
Shale Leasing Program Final Environmental Impact Statement
of the U.S. Department of the Interior. Washington: TIE.
Institute of Ecology (The), Environmental Impact Assessment Project
(1974) A Scientific and Policy Review of the Draft Environmental
Impact Statement for the Proposed Federal Coal Leasing
Program of the Bureau of Land Management, Department of the
Interior. Washington: TIE.
Jacobsen, J. Jay (1975) Dynamic Analysis of the Environmental and
Social Impacts of Coal Development in the Eastern Powder
River Basin, 1960-2010. Hanover, N.H.: Dartmouth College,
Thayer School of Engineering.
Kidman, R. B. (1975) 1974 Rocky Mountain Energy Flow Patterns.
Los Alamos: Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory.
Kneese, Allen V. (1975) Status Report Southwest Region under Stress
Project. Albuquerque: University of New Mexico.
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Kunitz, Stephen J. (1973) Demographic Change among the Hopi and
Navajo Indians, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin No. 2.
Los Angeles: University of California, Institute of
Geophysics and Planetary Physics.
Lewis, E. P. (1974) Empirical Least Squares Regression Models for
Employment, In- and Out-Migration, and Income Distribution
in the Northern Great Plains Region of the United States.
Bozeman, Mont.: Montana State University (Master's thesis).
Mann, D., G. Weatherford, and P. Nichols (1974) Legal-Political
History of Water Resource Development in the Upper Colorado
River Basin, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin No. 4.
Los Angeles: University of California, Institute of
Geophysics and Planetary Physics.
March, Michael S. (1975) "Statement Regarding Oil Shale Development
and Management Issues before the House Subcommittee on Fossil
Fuels of the Committee on Science and Technology at Boulder,
Colorado on October 27, 1975".
McKinsey, Lauren S., and Louis D. Hayes (1974) "Regional Energy
Development in Comparative Federal Systems". Montana Public
Affairs Report No. 19 (July).
Miller, Peter D. (1975) Coal Mining for Synthetic Fuels; The Impact
of Different Rates of Industrial Growth on Rural Society.
Stanford: Stanford Research Institute.
Murphy, Michael J. (1975) Northern Great Plains Coal: Issues and
Options for Suppliers and Users. Minneapolis, Minn.: Upper
Midwest Council.
National Environmental Research Center, National Ecological Research
Laboratory (1974) The Bioenvironmental Impact of a Coal-Fired
Power Plant. Corvallis, Oregon: National Environmental
Research Center.
Northern Great Plains Resource Program (1974) Socio-Economic and
Cultural Aspects - Work Group Report: Discussion Draft.
Denver: NGPRP.
Northern Great Plains Resources Program (1974) Surface Resources
Work Group—Regional Profile—Discussion Draft. Denver: NGPRP.
Perkins, Priscilla C. (1975) Scientific Information in the
Decision to Dam Glen Canyon, Lake Powell Research Project
Bulletin No. 9. Los Angeles: University of California,
Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics.
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C-ll
Power, Thomas M. and others (1975) Projections of Northern Great
Plains Coal Mining and Energy Conversion Development:
1975 - 2000 A.D., Montana University Coal Demand Study
Final Report. Missoula, Mont.: Montana University.
Reynolds, R. C. and N. M. Johnson (1974) Major Element Geochemistry
of Lake Powell, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin No. 5.
Los Angeles: University of California, Institute of
Geophysics and Planetary Physics.
Robbins, Lynn A. (1975) The Impact of Power Developments on the
Navajo Nation, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin No. 7.
Los Angeles: University of California, Institute of
Geophysics and Planetary Physics.
Rocky Mountain Institute for Policy Research (1975) Financing
Infrastructure in Energy Development Areas in the West.
Snowbird, Utah: Rocky Mountain Institute for Policy Research.
Schulze, W., S. Ben-David, D. Brookshire, and R. Whitworth (1975)
The Macroeconomic Impact of Energy Development in the Lake
Powell Area, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin No. 11.
Los Angeles: University of California, Institute of
Geophysics and Planetary Physics.
Stelzer, Irwin M., Capital Requirements for Energy Development in
the Western States Region. Albuquerque, N.M.: National
Economic Research Associates, Inc.
Stewart, Thomas R. and Jeffrey E. Carter (1973) POLICY: An
Interactive Computer Program for Externalizing, Executing,
and Refining Judgmental Policy. Boulder, Colo.: University
of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science.
Stroup, Richard, and Walter Thurman (1975) Forecasting Coal
Gasification Activity in the Northern Plains, Staff Papers in
Economics, No. 75-22. Bozeman, Mont.: Montana State
University, Agricultural Economics and Economics Dept.
Unity of Interests. Denver, Colo. : Federation of Rocky Mountain
States, Inc.
University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research (1974)
A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development
on the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern
Montana and Northeastern vfyoming, Final Report. Missoula,
Mont.: University of Montana, Institute for Social Science
Research.
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Van Meter, Wayne P., and Ronald E. Erickson (1975) Environmental
Effects from Leaching of Coal Conversion By-Products,
ERDA Contract No. E-49-(18)-2019, Interim Report for the
Period June-September 1975. Missoula, Mont.: University
of Montana.
Weatherford, G. D., and G. C. Jacoby (1975) "Impact of Energy
Development on the Law of the Colorado River." Natural
Resources Journal 15 (January): 171-213.
C. NATIONAL
Booz Allen and Hamilton, Inc. (1975) Strategic Environmental
Assessment System - Executive Summary. Bethesda, Md.:
Booz Allen and Hamilton, Inc.
Cavender, James H., David S. Kircher, and Alan J. Hoffman (1973)
Nationwide Air Pollutant Emission Trends, 1940-1970. Research
Triangle Park, N.C.: EPA.
Cohn, Elchanan, and others (1975) "Forecasting Aggregate Demand
for Coal Miners." Applied Economics 7 (June): 81-92.
Congress, Senate, Committee on Public Works (1975) Air Quality
and Stationary Sources Emission Control, A Report by the
Commission on Natural Resources, the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the
National Research Council. Washington: Government Printing
Office.
Congress, House of Representatives (1975) Authorizing Appropriations
for the Energy Research and Development Administrations for
Fiscal Year 1976 and for the Transition Period Ending
September 30. 1976, joint report to accompany H.R. 3474.
Washington: Government Printing Office.
Congress, House of Representatives, Committee on Science and
Technology (1975) Special Conference with the Vice President
on Science Policy. Washington: Government Printing Office.
Congress, Joint Economic Committee (1974) Energy Imports and the
U.S. Balance of Payments. Hearings before the Subcommittee on
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7, and 8.
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Congress, Joint Economic Committee, Subcommittee on Economic
Growth (1975) Technology, Economic Growth, and International
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The ERDA Plan and Program. Washington: Government Printing
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(1975) Water Management by the Electric Power Industry,
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Gordon, C. C., and Phillip C. Tourangeau (1975) Biological Effects
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Krutilla, John V. and Anthony C. Fisher (1975) The Economics of
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Analysis, Oak Ridge Associated Universities.
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GLOSSARY
Aggregated scenario—a scenario which postulates the development
of energy resources at one or two specified levels within a
large area such as that defined by a river basin or several
states.
Aldehyde—any of various organic compounds containing a carbonyl
group (CO) and a hydrocarbon group such as CH-..
Anabatic circulation—an upslope wind resulting from local surface
heating, rather than from the effects of the larger-scale
circulation.
Ancillary energy—the amount of energy required from external
sources to accomplish the activities required for energy
resource development.
Ash—the residue left when combustible material is thoroughly
burned or otherwise oxidized.
Baseline conditions—within an area to be studied, the prevailing
state of such potentially impacted categories as air quality,
water quality and quantity, solid waste, noise, land use,
ecology, resource availability, economy, and social fabric
and structure.
Basic stability windrose information—a bivariate frequency
distribution depicting the frequency of occurrence of various
wind speed/wind direction combinations as a function of one
of the six Pasquill stability classes. A total of sixteen
wind direction categories and six wind speed categories are
in the distribution.
Bench scale—pertaining to a small, laboratory test of a process
which precedes pilot plant testing.
Beneficiation—cleaning and minimal processing to remove major
impurities or otherwise improve properties.
Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD)—the amount of oxygen required by
bacteria to convert organic material into stable compounds.
G-l
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"Biome—a major ecological community type.
Btu (British thermal unit)—a measure of energy equivalent to the
amount of heat required to raise the temperature of one
pound of water one degree Fahrenheit.
Carbon monoxide (CO)—a pollutant resulting from incomplete
combustion of fossil fuels.
Chemical oxygen demand (COD)—the amount of oxygen required to
convert (oxidize) organic compounds into stable forms—usually
carbon dioxide and water. COD includes all compounds
requiring oxidation while BOD includes only the biodegradable
fraction.
Chinook winds—warm, strong down-slope winds on the lee slopes of
the Rocky Mountains which can cause flooding conditions.
Cooling tower drift—the airborne transport of salts which are a
by-product of the use of evaporative towers to dissipate the
heat from processes such as combustion of coal for electricity
generation.
Cost/risk/benefit analysis--a technology assessment technique in
which values are assigned to such concerns as social impacts
in order to weigh the overall benefits and costs associated
with recommended policy alternatives.
Dispersion model—a set of mathematical formulations used to
describe the way in which airborne pollutants will be
distributed around their source.
Dry (geothermal) site—a geothermal well which produces dry
steam.
Dry steam—steam which is not mixed with a liquid water phase.
Dynamic meteorology—the study of atmospheric motions as
solutions of the fundamental equations of hydrodynamics
or other systems of equations appropriate to special
situations.
Economic base model—a model which considers two employment
sectors—basic or production for export and non-basic or
production for local goods and services—to predict the
impacts of exogenous changes on urban and regional
economies.
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Ecosystem—the interacting biological community and physical
components that occur in a given area.
Ecosystem units—vegetation units and their associated fauna.
Elastic supply curve—supply of an input is variable with the
price, indicating that enough of the input will be
available when it is needed.
Energy resource development system (ERDS)—a way of conceptualizing
the interrelation of the various factors relevant to the
development of an energy source; it encompasses a resource,
the technologies required to develop it, and the social
controls that are imposed when these technologies are
deployed.
Input-output model—a model which considers many sectors of an
economy and the interrelationships among them to describe
an economy and to predict the impacts from exogenous changes.
In-situ—in the natural or original position; applied to energy
resources when they are processed in the location where
they were originally deposited.
Integrated technology assessment—see technology assessment.
Inversion frequencies—the percentage of time that there is
present in a region a layer of the atmosphere through which
the temperature increases as a function of increasing
height (thus inhibiting vertical motions).
Katabatic circulation—any wind blowing down an incline. If the
wind is warm, it is called a foehn or chinook; if cold, it is
usually a gravity wind in which cold, dense air drains to
lower elevations.
L,--daytime equivalent sound level.
L, —day-night equivalent sound level.
L —the long-term equivalent of A-weighted sound levels.
eq
L —nighttime equivalent sound level.
Lead time—the time needed for planning, financing and construction
of required facilities before they are ready for use.
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Low-Btu gas--gas obtained by partial combustion of coal with air;
energy content is usually 100 to 200 Btu's per cubic foot.
Lurgi high-Btu gasification—a medium pressure process using a
rotating grate reactor with steam and oxygen to produce
medium Btu gas which is then upgraded in a methanation
step.
Milling—a process in the uranium fuel cycle where ore which
contains only .2 percent uranium oxide (0303) is converted
into a compound called yellowcake which contains 80 to 83
percent 0303.
Mixing depth--the height above the surface to which vertical
mixing and a neutral lapse rate (no change in air temperature
with increasing height) occur because of mechanical
turbulence and/or surface heating.
Multiplier—the quantity which measures the effects (direct,
indirect, or induced) of a given change in a local or
regional economy.
Net energy analysis--the amount of energy that remains after the
energy costs of finding, producing, upgrading, and
delivering the energy have been paid.
Net primary production—the amount of energy available from plants;
an indicator of ecosystem function and capacity.
Nitrates—class of secondary pollutants that includes acid-nitrates
and neutral metallic nitrates.
Nitrogen oxides (NOX)—class of primary pollutants that includes
nitrogen oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NC>2)-
Overburden—the rock, soil, etc., covering a mineral to be mined.
Oxidants—a class of secondary pollutants some of which are
formed by photochemical processes.
Ozone--an oxidant formed in atmospheric photochemical reactions.
Particulates—microscopic pieces of solids which emanate from a
range of sources and are the most widespread of all
substances that are usually considered air pollutants.
Those between 1 and 10 microns are most numerous in the
atmosphere, stemming from mechanical processes and including
industrial dusts, ash, etc.
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G-5
Parties-at-interest—individuals, groups or organizations (such
as local residents, Indian tribes, industry, labor, or
various levels of government) whose interests or values are
likely to be affected by the development of western energy
resources.
Pasquill stability classes—a system of classifying stability on
an hourly basis for research in air pollution; uses a matrix
relating net radiation and surface wind speed (the primary
determinants of stability near the ground).
Peroxyacyl nitrates (PAN)—organic compound formed in smog
atmospheres that is believed to be one source of characteristic
eye irritation accompanying smog.
Pilot plant scale—pertaining to a test of a process at 1/100 to
1/10 of commercial size.
Primary efficiency—the ratio between the energy value of the
output fuel and the energy value of the input fuel.
Regional scenario—the largest aggregated scenario, comprising
the eight-state Rocky Mountain and Northern Great Plains
region; the states included are: Montana, North Dakota,
South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and New
Mexico.
Residuals--the quantities of inputs to, and non-energy outputs
of the technological processes involved in energy resource
development.
Scenario—a projected course of actions or events; a mechanism
for identifying and assessing the likely consequences of
hypothetical patterns of development.
Site-specific scenario—a scenario which postulates the
development of one or more energy resources at a particular
site over specified time periods using a particular
combination of technologies.
Social controls—formal (such as administrative and regulatory)
and informal (such as interest-group) sanctions relating to
the various phases of energy resource development.
Socioeconomic impacts—changes in population, economy, culture,
and other economic and social conditions resulting from an
exogenous change in an area.
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G-6
Slurry pipeline—a pipeline through which coal—in the form of a
mixture of water and coal—is transported.
Stability class distribution—the frequency of occurrence
associated with each of the six Pasquill stability classes
on a monthly, seasonal, or annual basis at a particular
location.
Sulfates—class of secondary pollutants that includes acid-sulfates
and neutral metallic sulfates.
Sulfur dioxide (SC>2)—one of several forms of sulfur in the air;
an air pollutant generated principally from combustion of
fuels that contain sulfur.
Synoptic meteorology—the use of meteorological data obtained
simultaneously over a wide area for the purpose of presenting
a comprehensive and nearly instantaneous picture of the state
of the atmosphere.
Synoptic-scale flow—circulations having the scale of the migratory
high and low pressure systems of the lower troposphere, with
horizontal dimensions on the order of 1000 to 2500 kilometers.
Synthane high-Btu gasification—a fluidized bed, high pressure
reactor process using steam and oxygen. Distinguished by the
high methane yield in the initial reaction process.
Synthoil liquefaction—a high pressure, high temperature process
which makes a liquid hydrocarbon from coal by adding
hydrogen to the coal using a catalyst.
Technology assessment (or integrated technology assessment)—an
examination—generally based on previously completed research
rather than initiating new primary research—of the second-
and higher-order consequences of technological innovation.
TA attempts to balance these consequences against first-order
benefits by identifying and analyzing alternative policies
and implementation strategies so that the process of coping
with scientific invention can occur in conjunction with,
rather than after, such invention.
TOSCO II process--a retort for producing a liquid hydrocarbon
from oil shale by heating the shale in a reducing atmosphere
using externally heated solid pellets as the heat source.
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G-7
Total dissolved solids (TDS)—dissolved mineral salts generally
consisting of sodium, calcium, magnesium, sulfate, chloride,
and bicarbonate ions.
Transport modeling—method of predicting ambient concentrations
(both in air and water) of pollutants emitted from a source
or combination of sources.
Transport wind field—the set of ambient wind directions and
speeds input to a transport model.
Trend projection methods—prediction based on the assumption that
past trends will continue to hold in the future.
Wet steam—a two-phase steam consisting of steam and water.
Yellowcake—the product of the milling process in the uranium
fuel cycle; it contains 80 to 83 percent uranium oxide (0303)
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KEYWORD LIST
Coal
Oil shale
Crude oil
Natural gas
Uranium
Geothermal energy
Government policies
Environmental impacts
Socioeconomic impacts
Water resources
Esthetics
Economic analysis
Land use
Electric power generation
Electric power transmission
Electric power
Gasification
Liquefaction
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R-9
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R-10
Missouri Basin Inter-Agency Committee (1971) The Missouri River
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R-ll
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R-12
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
/flease reaJ /nunicti'iiit on rue rc\cr;c be jure i •
! REPORT NO.
___ _EPA-600/5-76-001
JTfTLE AND SUBTITLE
ACCESSIO:+NO.
5. REPORT DATE
FIRST YT.AR
Asse.dsir.ent
neve lopaient
for
'achaology
of Western Energy Resource
6. PERFORMING ORGANISATION CODt
7 AUTHOR(S)
Irvin L. (Jack) White, F. Scott LaGrone,
[_.a ml_ others
l57PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
Science & Public Radian Corporation
Policy Program P.O. Box 9948
University of Oklahoma Austin, Texas 78766
Norman, Oklahoma 73069
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
Office of Energy, Minerals and Industry
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D.C. 20460
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT \ C
March, 1976
1O. PFOGRAM ELEMENT NO.
EHA__547
"11. CONTRACT /GRANT NO.
68-01-1916
13. TYPE OF KEPORT AND PERIOD CC'
Final Work Plan
14. SPONSOFiING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTFiACT
This report presents a Work Plan for conducting a Technology Assessment
of energy resource development in the Western U.S. The energy resources
addressed are coal, oil shale, oil, natural gas, geothermal, and
uranium. The geographical focus is on the States of North and South
Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado. The
time frame to be addressed is the period 1975-2000. The Assessment is
designed to identify and quantify the diverse impacts of energy
development in the West, including secondary or higher order impacts.
Further, the Assessment will identify and assess policy alternatives
for dealing with these impacts, with a special focus on environmental
protection strategies. Nine scenarios are used to structure the
analysis. Six of these are site-specific: Kaiparowits/Escalante,
Navajo (Farmington), Rifle, Gillette
river basins: the Upper Colorado and
comprised of the eight states within
resources are concentrated.
, Colstrip, and Beulah. Two are
the Upper Missouri. And one is
which much of the six energy
KEY WCrlOS Ai\O DOCUM'eMT AN,'< L I
DESCRIPTORS
Systems Analysis
Environmental Engineering
Fossil Fuels
Ecology
Government Policies
j OI77 PitiU": ION STATLfvlfNT
Release Unlimited
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b.lDENTIr irnSVOPEN EN;JED TFRV3
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Technology Assessmen
Energy Development
Environmental Impact
Secondary Impacts
19. Sf-CUHITY CL^SS ( 1 i,lt A ff'Ort/
Unclassif ied
0402 1001
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1302
1401
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0809
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0511
0606
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EPA Form 2270-) (9-7''I {Rev»fi«) *U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1976 622-933/453 1-3
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