EPA-600/5-76-007a
July 1976
IMPACTS OF MATERIAL SUBSTITUTION IN AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURE ON
RESOURCE RECOVERY - Volume I: Results and Summary
by
JRobert W. Roig
William L. Henn
Tom Jones
Marc Narkus-Kramer
Roy Renner
Andrea L. Watson
Carolyn Weaver
CONTRACT NO. 68-01-3142
Project Officer
Calvin 0. Lawrence
Office of Monitoring and Technical Support
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D.C. 20460
Prepared for
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20460
S. ENViRONr,1F;NT.4L PROTECTION
N. j.
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DISCLAIMER NOTICE
This report has been reviewed by the Office of Research and Development,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and approved for publication.
Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the views
and policies of the Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention of
trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommenda-
tion for use.
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ABSTRACT
Probable changes in the mix of materials used to manufacture
automobiles were examined to determine if economic or technical problems
in recycling could arise such that the "abandoned automobile problem"
would be resurrected. Future trends in materials composition of the auto-
mobile were quantified, and possible constraints related to material
characteristics, availability, and price were examined. The automobile
resource recovery industry was studied in terms of economic incentives
for recycling and technical obstacles to recycling of deregistered auto-
mobiles. A macromodel of the economy, the EPA sponsored SEAS model, was
used to study overall economic and environmental effects and to bring to
light any secondary effects that might be important.
The major conclusions are that auto hulks are likely to be in
great demand for recycling, that the backlog of abandoned cars in the
environment will very likely disappear by the early 1980's5and that
changes in materials composition of autos will accentuate this tendency.
Vertical integration of the larger firms in the industry is a likely trend
at both the input (hulk collection, dismantling, and preparation for shredding)
and output (nonferrous metals smelting) ends of the central hulk processing
(shredding) part of the business. Overall economic impacts of the various
automobile materials composition scenarios we studied were rather small,
although effects in particular industries, relative to a base-case, no-change
in materials composition scenario, were noticeable.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Abstract in
Table of Contents iv
List of Figures v
List of Tables vii
Preface x
I. Study Background and Summary 1
II. Automobile Material Composition in the
1980 - 1990 Decade 9
III. Safety and Performance Considerations 30
IV. Demand, Availability and Price of Steel and
Substitute Materials for Automobile Manufacture 42
V. Impact on Ferrous Metal Recycling Industries 49
VI. Impact on Nonferrous Metal Recycling Industries 67
VII. Integrated Analysis of the Impact of Automobile
Composition Changes Using the Strategic
Environmental Assessment System 73
VIII. References 97
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Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
Figure 10
Figure 11
Figure 12
Figure 13
LIST OF FIGURES
Projected Market Share for Motor
Vehicle Size Categories
Return Flow of Automobile Materials
Sources of Ferrous Inputs to Domestic
Iron and Steel Industry
Total Scrap Requirements for the
United States
Percentages of Number 2 and All Other
Bundles and Shredded Scrap of Net Total
Domestic Receipts of Iron and Steel
Scrap
Percentages of Number 2 and All Other
Bundles and Shredded Scrap of Exports
of U.S. Iron and Steel Scrap
Requirements for Shredded and Number 2
and All Other Bundled Scrap
Estimates of Automobiles Retired and
Automobiles Required for Processing by
Shredders and Balers
Cumulative Unprocessed Automobiles
Automobile Recycling Possibilities Via
Shredding - 400 Mile Transportation
Radius
Deregistered Automobiles: Scrap
Availability to and Scrap Requirements
of Balers and Shredders
Page
28
50
52
55
56
57
58
59
60
62
64
Capacity and Output of Ferrous Shredders 66
SEAS System Flow Chart 79
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Figure 14 Partial Flow Analysis of Material
Input to the Automobile Industry
Maximum Aluminum 89
Figure 15 Projected Available Ferrous Scrap,
1975 - 1995 (Millions of Tons) 92
Figure 16 Projected Available Aluminum Scrap,
1975 - 1995 (Millions of Tons) 93
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LIST OF TABLES
Page
Table 1 Automobile Composition for Selected
Materials Sales Weighted Averages
Including Imports 5
Table 2 Baseline Car Categories 11
Table 3 Materials Composition of Recent
U.S. Automobiles 12
Table 4 Materials Composition of Recent
Model Plymouth Automobiles 13
Table 5 Materials Composition of Selected
Automobiles Manufactured Recently
In Europe and Japan 14
Table 6 Estimated Plastics Used in 1974
Passenger Cars from Two Sources 15
Table 7 Baseline Materials Composition:
Typical 1975 Model Automobiles Sold
in the United States 16
Table 8 Estimated Average Usage of Aluminum
in Intermediate Class Passenger Cars 19
Table 9 Projected Materials Composition: 1980
Model Automobiles
Basis: Maximum Credible Plastics
Content 21
Table 10 Projected Materials Composition: 1980
Model Automobiles
Basis: Maximum Credible Plastics
Content 22
Table 11 Projected Materials Composition: 1980
Model Automobiles
Basis: Most Probable Materials Content 23
Table 12 Projected Materials Composition: 1990
Model Automobiles
Basis: Maximum Credible Aluminum
Content 24
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Page
Table 13 Projected Materials Composition: 1990
Model Automobiles
Basis: Maximum Credible Plastics
Content 25
Table 14 Projected Materials Composition: 1990
Model Automobiles
Basis: Most Probable Materials Content 26
Table 15 Mechanical and Physical Properties of
Steels, Aluminum Alloys, and Plastics 31
Table 16 Material Choices for ESV Prototypes 38
Table 17 Projections of Materials Consumption by
Automobile Manufacturers and Total
Domestic Production 43
Table 18 Comparison of Prices Based on Wholesale
Price Index (1967=100) 45
Table 19 Cost of Manufacture as Percentage of
Total Cost 46
Table 20 Relative Materials Prices for
Automobiles 47
Table 21 Future Domestic Scrap Requirements 53
Table 22 U.S. Aluminum Consumption Statistics
(Thousands of Short Tons) 70
Table 23 Profile of Secondary Aluminum Recovery
Industry (Thousands of Short Tons) 72
Table 24 Automobile Industry Consumption of
Aluminum (Thousands of Short Tons) 73
Table 25 Compositions of Some Aluminum Alloys 75
Table 26 Scenario Comparison for Inforum 80
Table 27 Scenario Comparison for Inforum 81
Table 28 Residual by Sector: 1985 83
vm
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Page
Table 29 Solid Waste and Recycled
Material Report 84
Table 30 Comparison of Aggregated Economic
Statistics for 1985 86
Table 31 Employment Impacts for the Maximum
Aluminum Car 88
Table 32 Comparison of Pollution Residuals (%}
Between Base Case and Most Probable
Car (1985) 91
Table 33 Iron and Steel Scrap Requirements
(1985) 96
IX
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PREFACE
The work reported here was undertaken by IR&T for the Environmental
Protection Agency under Contract 68-01-3142. The first volume is a self-
contained exposition of our investigations, the results we obtained, and our
conclusions. Volumes II, III and IV contain as appendices working papers
on various subtopics pertinent to the main topic that were prepared during
the course of our study. They contain additional detail and data which
supplement the presentation in Volume I. The appendices should be consulted
for methodological details and for data which underlie some of the results
presented in Volume I.
The EPA project monitors for the study were Mr. Ted Williams
and, after Mr. Williams' transfer from EPA to the Commerce Department, Mr.
Calvin Lawrence. The Office of Solid Waste, Environmental Protection Agency,
provided financial support.
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SECTION I
STUDY BACKGROUND AND SUMMARY
Resource recovery from automobiles has received a great
deal of attention in recent years. In the decade preceding 1974, the
impetus was the recognition that large numbers of retired autos were
being deposited in the environment to slowly decompose. They presented
an environmental problem in that they became ubiquitous eyesores and
added to the load of waste a consumption oriented society was depositing
on its surroundings. Between 1964 and 1974, at least six major
studies 1~6 were made of the "abandoned automobile problem."
Many of these studies were concerned with government policy alternatives
to encourage recycling of automobiles, and to discourage abandonment of
autos in the public domain. At present, the problem appears to be
ameliorating, at least in the short run. Recent high scrap prices and
the rapid expansion of automobile shredder capacity have apparently
stopped the buildup of the inventory of retired autos in and out of
junk yards.* Pressure for governmental action by regulation has abated,
and attention is directed increasingly toward the economic aspects; i.e.,
to the need to regard junk automobiles as valuable raw material resources.
The increased urgency level of the "abandoned automobile
problem" in the 1960s had its source in a series of industrial events,
well recognized in hindsight, and its amelioration is apparently due to
some natural responses to these events. The shift in the 1950's and
1960's by the steel industry from the open-hearth method of production
to the basic-oxygen-furnace process caused a decrease in the amount of
scrap required per unit of steel output, and upgraded the quality
requirements on acceptable scrap. Recycled automobile hulks processed
*The Commodity Data Summaries, 1975, publication of the Bureau of Mines
contains the following statement in its section on iron and steel scrap
(pp 84-85): "The high price of scrap has also resulted in removal and
recycling of many derelict automobile hulks that formerly disfigured
the landscape."
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into so-called "#2 bundles," rank very low on the scale of scrap
quality and were the first source of scrap to be impacted by this decreased
demand. Auto hulks assumed a negative economic value and prices for
#2 bundle scrap produced from automobile hulks were Idto. At the same
time, sales of new automobiles and retirements of old ones were almost
doubling between 1958 and 1972. As a consequence, the inventory of
unrecycled automobile hulks residing in the environment expanded from
4
about one million in 1958 to some thirteen million in 1970.
The availability of this huge, low-cost raw material resource
has eventually evoked some economic and technical responses. The
automobile shredder has appeared and upgraded the quality of scrap
that can be made from automobile hulks to an acceptable level. Prices
for shredder scrap of automotive origin now approximate those obtained
for the highest grades of obsolete scrap. Shredder capacity has increased
almost fourfold from 1966 to 1975.
The diminished use of scrap by the major steel producers,
and consequent lowering of scrap costs, encouraged the growth of a
regional steel industry based on the electric furnace which uses 95% to
100% scrap charge. Production by electric steel-making furnaces increased
from 8.4 million tons in 1960 to 20.2 million tons in 1970, and is
expected to almost triple that amount by 1985.
The study reported here was undertaken by International
Research and Technology, Inc. for the Environmental Protection Agency
to focus on a particular aspect of resource recovery from automobiles;
namely,the long-range technical, environmental, and economic consequences
of changes in the materials input into the manufacture of automobiles.
That radical changes in automobile materials consumption are taking
place, and will continue, is readily apparent; cars are becoming smaller
and lighter and major efforts are being made to improve their fuel
economy; lighter weight materials, particularly aluminum and plastics,
are being emphasized as replacement for traditional materials. These
-------
changes are E>eing forced by the demands of consumers, and while an
industry as large as the domestic automobile industry is limited in its
speed of response to changing market demands, there is no doubt that
changes will be necessary for as long as high and increasing gasoline
prices continue. A recent report to Congress on fuel economy empha-
sized the importance of automobile weight in national consumption of
gasoline.
We have subdivided our study into four parts as follows:
• A quantification of the trends in automobile material composition
in the period from now to the 1980-1990 decade.
• An examination of technological and economic problems associated
with materials characteristics, availability, and price which
could constrain an evident trend toward the use of lighter metals
and plastics in automobiles.
• A study of the automobile recycling industry to determine if
the perceived changes in automobile materials composition might
either alter economic incentives, or present technical problems
in recycling automobiles, such that the "abandoned automobile
problem" would be resurrected.
• A study of long-range economic and environmental effects using
a macromodel of the U.S. economy, the SEAS* model, developed
under the auspices of EPA.
The following sections will discuss our findings in each of
these four subject areas. Since the project was an attempt to look into
an uncertain and dimly perceived future, we are reluctant to term our
thoughts and calculations as "results" or "predictions." The term
"perceptions" is perhaps more appropriate. In any event, we summarize
them in the following ways:
^Strategic Environmental Assessment System.
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The weight of the average car sold in the U.S. will decrease by
20% in 1980 and by 30% in 1990 from its present value (approxi-
mately 3,400 Ibs). Weight of aluminum and plastics in cars will
increase two to threefold on an absolute and percentage basis,
displacing iron and steel primarily but also copper and zinc.
The trends are shown in Table 1. The ranges given are uncertain-
ties based partly on the aluminum-plastics competition for market
share, and reflected in alternate scenarios we have used in our
study. (Sec. II and Appendices A & B)
Availability and price competition between aluminum and plastics
does not appear to be a major consideration for determining
materials composition of automobiles. If the cost of energy
(manufacturing and embodied) is assumed to be the principal
determinant of relative prices for aluminum and plastics, a
slight advantage accrues to plastics in scenarios where
energy costs rise sharply. (Sec. IV and Appendices E & G)
Performance and safety considerations have many subtle effects
on the choice of materials for automobiles, some favoring sub-
stitution of aluminum for steel and some discouraging it. In
places where a hard wear surface is required (e.g.} cylinder
walls), iron or steel might be preferred. For structural mem-
bers where rigidity, high strength, and compactness are required,
(e.g., frame members) aluminum construction may show very little
weight savings compared to a high strength alloy steel. The
galvanic corrosion potential inherent in steel-aluminum inter-
faces will require that special care be taken in design and
manufacturing. Upgraded crash-worthiness requirements, if
implemented, are almost certain to drive car weights upward
and lessen the potential for substitution of aluminum and
plastic for steel. (Sec. Ill and Appendices D and I)
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TABLE 1
AUTOMOBILE COMPOSITION FOR SELECTED MATERIALS
SALES WEIGHTED AVERAGES INCLUDING IMPORTS
Vehicle Weight, Ibs
Iron & Steel,* Ibs.
Aluminum,* Ibs.
ii
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The economic impact of smaller cars with less ferrous material
per car is most likely to be in the direction of increased
competition among shredder operators for the available supply
of automobile hulks. Essential depletion of the backlog of
unprocessed automobile hulks would probably be complete by the
early 1980's in any case and the decreased steel content of
newer automobiles will tend to accelerate this trend. To meet
projected 1985 demands for shredded scrap, shredder operators
will have to use supply inputs other than automobile hulks
(industrial machinery, appliances) to make up 40 to 60% of their
total input by weight. (Sec. V and Appendices F and H)
Increased use of aluminum in automobiles, together with decreased
copper and zinc content, should tend to make the nonferrous
metal fraction of shredder output more valuable and easier to
process. However, the fraction of aluminum that will flow
through the collection, dismantling, and hulk preparation
stages to the shredder is uncertain. Easily removed parts
(hoods, trunk lids, fenders) of all aluminum alloy construction
are likely candidates for removal by auto wreckers for use as a raw
material for secondary wrought alloy production. By 1990, the amount
of aluminum scrap of automotive origin will encourage expansion
of secondary production relative to primary production.
Secondary producers are likely to expand their product line from
the current casting alloys to include wrought alloys. (Soc. VI)
One effect of the above factors is likely to be an upstream
integration of operations by the larger shredder operators.
They may want to assure their source of supply by long-term
contracts with auto wreckers or by moving into the business
themselves. Some of the larger shredder operators have already
integrated downstream nonferrous metals processing steps into
their operations, principally secondary zinc and aluminum smel-
ting processes. Upstream integration into the auto wrecking
business may be necessary to assure a supply of hulks to their
shredders and scrap to their secondary aluminum business.
(Sees. V and VI)
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The nonmetallic fraction of shredder output will necessarily
increase as the weight of plastics in autos increases. Continued
landfill disposal of this fraction is likely to increase
shredder operation costs somewhat, and foamed plastic material
will require separation and alternate disposal. The best
prospect overall appears to be in recovery of the energy content
of the nonmetallic waste (by incineration, pyrolysis, or some
combination thereof) and landfill of the reduced residue. The
practical means of implementing this energy recovery is not at
hand but,fortunately, the major impact of the increased flow
of plastics to the shredder output pile is several years away,
and the potential value of the recoverable energy appears to
be in a steady uptrend. (Appendix C)
The SEAS model was used to analyze the economic and environmental
impacts of changing material requirements of automobiles in 1985.
Four scenarios were run. Three involved changing composition
of the automobile. The other, a base case, assumed the composition
of the automobile remained at the 1971 level. All other inputs to
the SEAS model remained the same. The economic impact of changed
materials composition on the economy, as projected by the SEAS
model, is small in the context of the whole economy, but notice-
able in terms of some sectors. For example, GNP and employment
changed by less than one percent when comparing each of the three
scenarios to the base case. The sectors most significantly
affected were those directly related to the automobile industry:
iron and steel, aluminum, and gasoline production with outputs
varying between 10 and 20 percent in each case. Sectors selling
to these industries were affected between 2 and 20 percent. All
other impacts were negligible. (Sec. VII and Appendix J)
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Impacts on the national environment also were found to be
negligible. Pollution is reduced slightly from the base case
by less than 2% for the major air and water pollutants.
(Sec. VII and Appendix J)
The total quantity of solid waste generated from manufacturing
and consumer activities will not be affected, but its composi-
tion will change slightly. Availability of ferrous and aluminum
scrap will vary approximately 10% in 1995 when comparing the
three scenarios to the base case. Reduced ferrous scrap avail-
ability for recycling, particularly from automobiles, will create
a tight situation in 1985. Increased recycling from non-
automotive sources will be necessary to fill the gap.
(Sec. VII and Appendix J)
8
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SECTION II
AUTOMOBILE MATERIAL COMPOSITION IN THE 1980 TO 1990 DECADE
Over the next 25 years, the Anerican automobile will change
in many basic ways. A new era in automotive engineering is foreseen
in which engineering toward functional ism and conservation will domi-
nate. Smaller and lighter cars appear probable because they consume
less fuel and materials resources. Smaller vehicles use less street
and storage space, thereby contributing less to congestion in urban
areas. It is reasonable to expect that smaller cars will cost less to
purchase, maintain,and operate. While many cars will still be needed
with passenger accommodations large enough for family transportation,
exterior dimensions can be considerably reduced without sacrificing
passenger space. The fuel economy of all sizes of automobiles can be
improved by weight reduction through optimum materials choice, better
aerodynamic design, improvements to engines and power trains, and better
tire designs.
Weight reductions due to materials changes in cars will
occur from substitution of aluminum and plastics for steel and to a
lesser extent for copper and zinc. These are the most important materials
for recycling considerations which are likely to show significant changes
in usage. Hence, they are emphasized in this study. Other materials;
e.g., glass and rubber, remain important but the relative amount used,
per car, is not likely to change appreciably.
Historically, use of aluminum and plastics for weight
reduction first became popular in trucks. Long distance truck operators
began to find tangible economic advantages in vehicle weight reduction
in the years following World War II. Trucks began to appear with
aluminum frames, bodies, wheels, cabs, bumpers, transmission cases,
and fuel tanks. A rule-of-thumb of the 1950's was that a pound of weight
saved was worth a dollar premium in purchase price for line-haul applica-
tions on the Pacific Coast. Notable examples of fibre glass truck com-
ponents include the one-piece hood and front fenders of Kenworth trucks
and the fibre glass front fenders used by PeterbiIt Motors.
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A projection of future automobile composition will necessarily
involve a number of superimposed assumptions and projections. Therefore,
our results are not intended as precision forecasts but are a range of
possibilities, given a strong market driven incentive toward reduced
vehicle weight and improved fuel economy. We present our forecasts in
three scenario versions; namely,a "maximum credible aluminum" automobile,
"maximum credible plastics" automobile, and a "most likely materials
composition" automobile. We divide automobiles into three size cate-
gories and project materials composition for each size individually. A
composite automobile is then presented based on estimated relative sales
for each size. The projections are made for cars to be sold in 1980
and 1990.
The three size categories of automobiles chosen for this
study are:
• Class "A" - Full size family cars, six passengers.
• Class "B" - Compact cars, five passengers.
• Class "C" - Subcompact cars, four passengers.
While these divisions are defined by normal full load capacity in
seated adult passengers, it generally follows that other features such
as curb weight and engine size are characteristically similar within
each category. Table 2 lists some of the parameter ranges that distinguish
each car class.
Actual materials composition of recent model automobiles can
be only approximately determined, but a fair sampling of recent published
data on domestic makes is shown in Tables 3 and 4. Data on some foreign
models is shown in Table 5. The "plastics" category includes a wide
variety of substances. Table 6 gives a listing by type with estimates
from two sources of plastics usage per car in 1974. From this and other
data, a nominal baseline materials composition for 1975 models has
been constructed as shown in Table 7.
10
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TABLE 2
BASELINE CAR CATEGORIES
Car "A" Car "B" Car "C"
Description
No. Adult Passengers
Curb V.'eigbt, 1b
Wheel base, in
Total Length, in
Total Seating Width, in
Luggage Space, ft3
Engines:
Typical No. Cyl.
Displacement, in3
S~E ,';=t HP
Fuel Economy, npg*
Urban
Highway
Full Size
Family Sedan
6
>3,500
>110
>200
>100
12-20
Compact
5
2,500-3,500
98-110
180-200
90-100
10-14
Srriall or
Sub Compact
4
<2,500
<98
<180
75-80
6-10
8
>300
>140
10-13
15-18
6
200-300
95-120
13-18
18-28
4
<150
<95
18-24
24-33
*By U.S. EPA dynamometer method deduced from EPA, FEA pamphlet,
"1974 Gas Mileage Guide for New Car Buyers."
11
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TABLE 4
MATERIALS COMPOSITION OF RECENT MODEL PLYMOUTH AUTOMOBILES1
Wheel base, in
Standard Engine
Transmission
Steering
Brakes
Heater
Radio
Curb Weight, Ib
1973
120
V-8(318-cu.in.)
Automatic
Power
Power
Yes
Yes
4014
1953
116
V-8(31S-cu.in.)
Auto~atic
Manual
Manual
Yes
Yes
3*15
1963
116
V-8(273-cu.in.)
Automatic
Manual
Manual
Yes
Yes
3355
Material Grouping in Lbs. and Percent
Cast Iron
Malleable Iron
Plain Carbon Steel
Galvanized Steel
Aluminized Steel
Alloy Steel
Stainless Steel
Aluminum
Magnesium
Zinc
Copper and Copper Base Alloys
Lead
Body Solder
Glass
Rubber
Plastics
Soft Trim, Paper, Cardboard &
Components
Sound Deadeners and Sealers
Paint and Protective Dip
Fluids and Lubricants
Wt.,lb
482
169
2105
75
31
95
13
75
0
65
26
22
5
96
201
125
110
77
26
216
wt.s
12.0
4.2
52.4
1.9
0.8
2.4
0.3
1.9
0.0
1.6
0.6
0.5
0.1
2.4
5.0
3.1
2.7
1.9
0.6
5.4
TOTALS 4014
Ut.,lb
394
64
1914
71
24
121
12
71
0
37
38
30
5
90
173
21
92
47
20
191
3415
Wt.,lb Wt.5
11.5
1.9
55.0
2.1
0.7
3.5
0.4
2.1
C.O
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.1
2.6
5.1
0.6
2.7
1.4
0.6
5.6
473
63
1807
53
24
121
12
75
2
28
36
32
5
82
174
12
85
56
17
198
3355
14.0
1.9
53.9
1.6
0.7
3.6
0.4
2.2
0.1
0.8
1.1
1.0
0.1
2.4
5.2
0.4
2.5
1.7
0.5
5.9
13
-------
TABLE 5
MATERIALS COMPOSITION OF SELECTED AUTOMOBILES
MAII'jFACTORED RECENTLY IN EUROPE AND JAPAN 13
Vehicle Descriptions
Make
Kodel
Approx. curb
weight Ib.
Austin
13GO
1898
Ford
Escort
1100 CC
1717
Isuzu
Gemini
1600
-
Percentage of
Steel & alloys
Iron and alloys
Total iron & steel
Aluminum
Copper, brass
Zinc
Lead
Rubber
Glass
Plastic
Fibre
H;rd board
Paint
Misccl leneous
71.2
10.0
81.2 ,
2.4
0.8
0.5
0.8
4.6
2.7
2.4
1.4
1.3
0.6
1.4
-
-
79.8
0.1
0.3
0.2
-
6.8
3.4
3.9
0.6
-
-
4.9
70.7
14.9
85.6
1.6
1.3
-
1.7
3.4
3.1
1.4
-
-
-
1.9
Kercedes-
Benz
6-cyl .
3085
f-taterials by '-.'
59.2
11.1
70.3
4.2
2.2
0.7
1.2
5.3
2.3
-
3.4
1.7
1.9
5.9
Peugeot
104
-
eight
64.0
3.0
67.0
4.0
0.5
-
1.5
6.0
5.0
7.0
1.0
-
1.0
7.0
Vo 1 vo
144
2870
-
-
71.5
1.5
1.5
-
-
6.2
3.8
4.2
-
-
1.2
10.0
14
-------
TABLE 6
ESTIMATED PLASTICS USED IN 1974 PASSENGER CARS FROM TWO SOURCES
Usage, 1b per Car
Material Garlund 14 Heinold15
Acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) 15 16
Polyester (Glass reinforced) 10 17
Polyamide (Nylon) 6 3.8
Polyethylene 6 5.2
Acetyl, Polyacetyl 2 1.5
Acrylic ,3 3.7
Phenolic 5 6
Polypropylene 22 23
Polystyrene 2
Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) 30
Polyurethane 35
Styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) 1 1.2
Other (Cellulostics, Alkyds, 12 8.1
epoxies, Polycarbonates, etc.)
TOTALS 149 Ib. 85.5 Ib.
15
-------
TABLE 7
BASELINE MATERIALS COMPOSITION: TYPICAL 1975 MODEL
AUTOMOBILES SOLD IN THE UNITED STATES
Autonobile "A"
Full -Size
Low Carbon Steel
Alloy Steel (b)
Total Steel
Cast Iron'c'
Aluminum
Copper, Brass
Zinc
Lead
Other Metal ^
Rubber
Glass
Plastic
Other Non-Metal
Totals
wt.,lb
2400
260
2660
716
117
40
35
25
10
195
100
150
292
4340
wt.%
55.3
6.0
61.3
16.5
2.7
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.2
4.5
2.3
3.5
6.7
Automobile "3I:
Compact
wt.,lb
1659
180
1839
495
81
30
24
22
8
135
75
105
186
3000
\it.%
55.3
6.0
61. 3
16.5
2.7
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.3
4.5
2.5
3.5
6.2
Automobile "C"
Sub Compact
wt.,lb
1185
131
1317
316
87
25
17
20
10
120
60
76
132
2180
wt.%
54.4
6.0
60.4
14.5
4.0
1.1
0.8
0.9
0.5
5.5
2.8
3.5
6.0
Composite (a)
Automobile
(sales weighted!
wt.,lb wt.S
1896
2102
557
99
34
28
23
9
159
83
119
2_23
3^00
55.2
6.0
G1.2
16.2
2.9
1.0
.8
.7
.3
4.6
2.4
3.5
6.5
Notes
(a) Assuming t.6% Class "A," 32% Class "B," 22% Class "C"
(b) Including stainless steels.
(c) Including malleable iron.
(d) Including tin, magnesium. Alloying materials such as manganese, nickel,
chromium, and tungsten are included in the steel weights.
16
-------
The recent automotive trade literature is replete with citings
of weight savings that are possible in automobiles. Possibilities for
weight savings by size reduction alone are quite evident; e.g., the
length and wheel base of the Mercedes Benz 450SE are 195 inches and 113
inches, respectively, which may be compared to the 220 inches and 120
inches of an average full size American car with equivalent interior
space. Smaller cars (size categories B and C) have lesser, but still
substantial, potential for size reduction. The following examples
of weight saving by material substitution have been published recently:
• The Vega aluminum alloy engine block weighs 36 pounds,
a savings of 51 pounds over an equivalent iron block. The
weight reduction has been attributed to a combination of
reduced material density and the greater precision of the
die casting process when compared with iron foundry
practices.
• A comparative study of the weight of an automobile hood
fabricated from different materials gave the following
results:
Steel - 75 Ibs.
Aluminum - 37 Ibs.
Fibre glass reinforced plastic - 34 Ibs.
• A zinc die casting for the 1973 Pontiac side window louvre
weighing about 20 pounds was replaced by an injection
molded, fibre glass reinforced plastic part weighing less than
5 pounds.
• Weights of steel vs. aluminum components have been estimated
to be: 90 Ibs. vs. 35 Ibs. for hoods; 75 Ibs. vs. 30 Ibs.
for trunk lids; 250 Ibs. vs. 100 Ibs. for four doors; 140 Ibs.
vs. 60 Ibs. for two front fenders; 130 Ibs. vs. 50 Ibs. for
two bumpers.
17
-------
« The die cast aluminum intake manifold used in some
Mustang and Pinto cars saves 15 Ibs. compared to a cast
19
iron manifold.
« Volkswagen has introduced a blow-molded, polyethelene gas tank
which weighs 8 Ibs. compared to 11.3 Ibs. for an equivalent
?n
steel tank.
• An experimental aluminum body to replicate a given steel
design in form and performance was fabricated and showed a
21
39% saving in weight compared to the steel body.
Industry projections of increased penetration of aluminum
and plastics into automobile materials composition appear to be
fairly cautious. Table 8 shows some projections by the Aluminum
; u
23
22
Association. Plastics usage of 200 to 300 Ibs. per car has been
deemed possible by 1980.'
Since cars for the 1980 model year will be manufactured
starting at mid-year 1979, and will be in the active design stages in
1976, many basic decisions regarding their design, materials, and
tooling will be made within a year from now. Radical changes from
current practice are therefore unlikely, at least on an industry-wide
scale. We can be fairly certain that the basic body structures of
most 1980 model cars will be fabricated by techniques and from materials
used on today's assembly lines. The basic structure will be assembled
from steel stampings using conventional fastening techniques; e.g.,
spot welding. Modules added to the basic structure, so-called "hang-
on" parts like doors, hoods, trunk lids, and fenders, are more likely
to be made of substitute materials.
For the 1990 model year forecasts, we can be more venturesome
in projecting changes. All aluminum bodies become a strong possibility,
as well as aluminum bodies with plastic hang-on parts.
18
-------
TABLE 8
ESTIMATED AVERAGE USAGE OF ALUMINUM IN
INTERMEDIATE* CLASS PASSENGER CARS22
I ten
Castings
Trim
Ai r Conditioners
D , ~ *~ -,
D L Jt:; 5
Body Sheet
Mi seel 1aneous
Total
Current
1974
Ib
57.25
8.90
8.10
4.25
0.22
3.58
Potential
1980
Ib
67.00
9.00
11.00
35.00
58.00
20.00
1935
Ib
206.25
12.90
12.00
50.00
255.00
39.60
82.30
200.00
575.75
(*) "Intermediates" are included in Category "A" cars.
19
-------
Our forecasts for 1980 are shown in Tables 9, 10, and 11 for
the "maximum credible aluminum," "maximum credible plastic," and "most
probable materials" scenarios respectively. Tables 12, 13,and 14 are
similarly arranged to exhibit our 1990 projections. The numbers were
computed by considering item-by-item substitution possibilities, the
corresponding weight savings, and estimating a fraction of production
changeover. We also have considered the compounding effect of weight
savings. For each pound of weight saving in the upper structure of
the car, another half-pound can be saved, in aggregate, in the engine,
1 o 24
transmission and drive train, chassis, brakes, wheels, tires, etc. '
Other 'assumptions included in our projections are:
t Reductions in overall car size, especially in the "A"
category.
» Smaller engines in response to continued lower speed limits
and emphasis on fuel economy.
• An estimate that 80% of cast iron is replaceable by
aluminum and that penetration by aluminum into these compo-
nents will be 60% for the "maximum credible aluminum"
scenario and 20% for the other scenarios in 1980, rising
to 100% and 40% respectively in 1990.
• For hang-on parts, the penetration percentages are
for 1980:
Maximum aluminum scenario - 50% Aluminum, 10% Plastic
Maximum plastics scenario - 50% Plastics, 10% Aluminum
Most probable scenario - 20% Plastic, 20% Aluminum.
In 1990 these penetrations are assumed to be almost complete
with some inroads for aluminum into basic body structures.
« Miscellaneous weight savings by use of lighter glass,
partial elimination of spare tires and wheels, etc.
20
-------
TABLE 9
PROJECTED MATERIALS COMPOSITION: 1980 MODEL AUTOMOBILES
BASIS: MAXIMUM CREDIBLE ALUMINUM CONTENT
Composite
Autorrobile "A"
Full Size
Low Carbon Steel
Alloy Steel (b)
Total Steel
Cast Iron'0)
Alu-iinum
Copper, Brass
Zinc
_ead
Dtner Metal (-)
lubber
Glass
Plastic
Other Kon- '-'etal
Totals (e)
wt.,lb
1792
247
2039
307
419
25
17
25
20
183
95
234
242
3511
ui.%
49.6
6.8
56.4
8.5
11.6
.7
.5
.7
.6
5.2
2.6
6.5
6.7
Automobile "3"
Corr.pact
wt.,lb
1184
171
1355
224
312
18
12
22
20
129
71
161
156
2480
wt.S
47.7
6.9
54.6
9.0
12.6
.7
.5
.9
.8
5.2
2.9
6.5
6.3
Autorcbile "C"
Sub-Coroact
wt.,lb
909
126
1035
153
244
16
9
20
20
117
57
114
112
1397
wt.fi
47.9
6.6
54.4
8.0
12.9
.8
.5
1.1
1.1
6.2
3.0
6.0
6.0
Automobile . .
(sales weighted) 'a.
wt.,lb
1276
179
1455
225
322
19
12
22
20
143
74
167
167
2626
wt.w,
48.6
6.8
55.4
8.6
12.3
.7
.4
.8
.8
5.4
2.8
6.4
6.4
Notes
(a) Assuming 30:i Class "A", 375$ Class "B", 33;.' Class "C" including imports
(b) Including stainless steels
(c) Including rralleable iron
(d) including tin, iragnesium. Alloying materials such as manganese, nickel,
chrorium, and tungsten are included in the steel weights.
(e) Total dry weights without fuel or fluids
21
-------
TABLE 10
PROJECTED MATERIALS COMPOSITION: 1980 MODEL AUTOMOBILES
BASIS: MAXIMUM CREDIBLE PLASTICS CONTENT
Autorabile "A"
Full Size
Low Carbon Steel
Alloy Steel (b)
Total Steel
Cast iron (c'
Aluminum
Copper, Brass
Zinc
Lead
Other Metal (d>
Rubber
Glass
Plastic
Other Non-Metal
Totals (e)
wt.,lb
1849
250
2099
520
196
35
17
25
20
188
95
340
242
3777
wt.S
43.9
6.6
55.5
13.8
5.2
.9
.5
.7
.5
5.0
2.5
9.0
6.4
Automobile "B"
Comoact
wt.,lb
1228
173
1401
380
140
26
12
22
20
130
71
247
156
2605
wt.?;
47.1
6.6
53.7
14.6
5.4
1.0
0.5
0.8
0.8
5.0
2.7
9.5
6.0
Au ton-ob •
Sub -Cor
wt.,lb
944
127
1071
257
128
22
9
20
20
118
57
168
112
1982
ile "C"
wt.X
47.6
6.4
54.0
13.0
6.5
1.1
0.5
1.0
1.0
6.0
2.9
8.5
5.7
Composite
Autorobile
(sales weighted) \a^
wt.,lb
1321
181
1502
381
153
27
12
22
20
143
74
249
167
2750
wt.%
48
6.6
54.6
13.9
5.6
1.0
0.4
0.8
0.7
5.2
2.7
9.1
6.1
Notes
(a) Assuming 30% Class "A", 37% Class "B", 33?; Class "C" including irrports
(b) Including stainless steals
(c) Including malleable iron
(d) Including tin, rcagnesiu™:. Alloying materials such as manganese, nickel,
chromium, and tungsten are included in the steel weights.
(e) Total dry weights without fuel or fluids
22
-------
PROJECTED MATERIALS
BASIS: MOST
TABLE n
COMPOSITION: 1980 MODEL AUTOMOBILES
PROBABLE MATERIALS CONTENT
Automobile "A"
Full Size
Low Carbon Steel
Alloy Steel (b)
Total Steel
Cast Iron 'c'
Aluminum
Copper, Brass
Zinc
Lead
Other Metal 'd)
Rubber
Glass
Plastic
Other rion-Ketal
Totals Ce)
wt.,lb
1977
251
2228
523
229
35
17
25
20
IB0
95
261
242
3864
wt.S
51.2
6.5
57.7
13. L
5.9
0.9
0.4
0.6
0.5
4.9
2.5
6.8
6.3
Automobile "B':
Compact
wt.,lb
1332
174
1506
383
166
26
12
22
20
131
71
182
156
2675
\-it.7,
49.8
5.5
56.3
14.3
6.2
1.0
0.4
0.8
0.7
4.9
2.7
6.8
5.8
Auto-rob lie "C1'
Sub-Ccr^act
wt.,lb
1005
128
1134
259
145
22
9
20
20
118
57
128
112
2025
wt.'i
49.7
6.3
5c.O
12.8
7.2
1.1
0.4
1.0
1.0
5.8
2.t
6.3
5.5
Composite
Automobile
(sales weighted) 'a'
wt.,lb
1418
182
1600
334
178
27
12
22
20
144
74
188
167
2816
wt.%
50.4
6.5
56.9
13.6
6.3
1.0
0.4
0.8
0.7
5.1
2.6
6.7
5.9
Notes
(a) Assuming 30?i Class "A", 37X Class "B", 33?; Class "C" including imports
(b) Including stainless steels
(c) Including malleable iron
(d) Including tin, magnesium. Alloying materials such as manganese, nickel,
chromium, and tungsten are included in the steel \,sights.
(e) Total dry '.-/eights v/ithout fuel or fluids
23
-------
TABLE 12
PROJECTED MATERIALS COMPOSITION: 1990 MODEL AUTOMOBILES
BASIS: MAXIMUM CREDIBLE ALUMINUM CONTENT
Automobile "A"
Full Size
Lo.v Ca>-bon Steel
Alloy Steel(b)
Total Steel
Cast iron ^c'
Alunina-n
Copper, Brass
Zinc
Lead
Ot-,2" Metal ^d)
R— er
Glass
Plastic
Ot'Tsr i'ion-Metal
Totals *-e'
wt.,lb
1198
272
1470
135
720
19
10
20
35
158
90
242
218
3117
wt.S
38.4
8.7
47.1
4.3
23.1
0.6
0.3
0.6
1.1
5.1
2.9
7.8
7.0
Autorrobile "B"
Compact
760
188
948
87
530
13
8
18
35
127
68
167
140
2141
wt.%
35.5
8.8
44.3
4.1
24.8
0.6
0.4
0.8
1.6
5.9
3.2
7.8
6.5
Automobile "C"
Sub-Correct
wt.Jb
594
139
733
43
398
12
6
17
35
101
54
118
101
1613
vt.S
35.7
8.6
45.3
2.6
24.6
0.7
0.4
1.1
2.2
6.2
3.3
7.3
6.2
Composi te
Automobile
(sales weighted) (a/
wt.Jb
837
197
1034
87
543
15
8
19
36
128
70
173
151
2264
wt.%
37
8.7
45.7
3.8
24.0
0.7
0.4
0.8
1.6
5.7
3.1
7.6
6.7
.'iOt23
(a) Assuming 30/5 Class "A", 37% Class "B", 33;^ Class "C" including imports
(b) Including stainless steels
(c.) Including malleable iron
(d) Including tin, magnesium. Alloying materials such as rcangensse, nickel,
chromium, and tungsten ara included in the steal v/aigh
(e) Total dry weights without fuel or fluids
24
-------
TABLE 13
PROJECTED MATERIALS COMPOSITION: 1990 MODEL AUTOMOBILES
BASIS: MAXIMUM CREDIBLE PLASTICS CONTENT
Automobile "A"
Full Size
Low Carbon Steel
Alloy Steel (b)
Total Steel
Cast Iron (c)
Aluminum
Copper, Brass
Zinc
Lead
Other metal (d)
Rubb-
Glass
Plastic
Other Non-Metal
Totals (fi)
wt.,lb
1319
275
1594
290
295
19
10
20
35
158
90
530
218
3260
wt.?,
40.5
8.4
48.9
8.9
9.1
0.6
0.3
0.6
1.1
4.8
2.8
16.3
6.7
Automobile "B"
Compact
wt.,1b wt
825
173
998
200
214
13
8
18
35
127
68
392
140
2213
37
7
45
9
9
0
c'
.3
.8
.1
.0
.7
.6
0.4
0
1
5
3
17
6
.8
.6
.7
.1
.7
.3
Automobile "C"
Sub-Compact
wt.,1b wt
675
127
802
119
178
12
6
17
35
101
54
262
101
1687
40
7
47
7
1C
0
0
1
2
6
3
15
6
c,
.0
.5
.5
.1
.6
.7
.4
.0
.1
.0
.2
.5
.0
Composite
Automobile , .
(sales weiqhtedpa)
wt.,lb wt
924
188
1112
200
227
14
8
18
35
123
70
390
150
?352
39
8
47
8
9
0
0
0
1
b
3
16
6
.'">
.3
.0
.3
.5
.7
.6
.3
.8
.5
.4
.0
.6
.4
notes
(a) Assuming 30% Class "A", 37:4 Class "B", 33% Class "C" including imports
(b) Including stainless steels
(c) Including malleable iron
(d) Including tin , magnesium. Alloying materials such as manganese, nickel,
chromium, and tungsten are included in the steel weights.
(e) Total dry weights without fuel or fluids
25
-------
TABLE- 14
PROJECTED MATERIALS COMPOSITION: 1990 MODEL AUTOMOBILES
BASIS: MOST PROBABLE MATERIALS CONTENT
Automobile "A"
Full Size •
LOW Carbon Steel
Alloy Steel (b)
Total Steel
Cast Iron (c)
Aluminum
Copper, Brass
Zinc
Lead
Other Metal (d)
Rubber
Glass
Plastic
Cther .'ion-Metal
-r^.4.,1- ( e)
. o ua 15 '
v>t. ,lb
1649
276
1925
2?0
389
19
10
20
35
158
90
316
218
3*70
wt.fi
47.5
8.0
55.5
8.4
11.2
0.5
0.3
0.6
1.0
4.6
2.6
9.1
6.3
Automobile "B"
Compact
wt.,lb
1074
191
1265
200
289
13
8
18
35
127
68
228
140
2391
wt.%
45
8
53
8.4
12.1
.5
.3
.8
1.5
5.3
2.8
9.5
5.9
Automobile "C"
Sub-Compact
wt . , 1 b
837
141
978
119
228
12
6
17
35
101
54
156
101
1807
wt.S
46.3
7.8
54.1
6.6
12.6
.7
.3
.9
1.9
5.6
3.0
8.6
5.6
• Composite
Automobile .
(sales weighted) ^'
wt.Jb
1168
200
1368
200
299
14
8
18
35
128
70
231
151
2522
wt.%
46.3
7.9
54.2
7.9
11.9
0.6
0.3
0.7
1.4
5.0
2.8
9.2
6.0
t^otes
(a) Assuming 30% Class "A", 37% Class "B", 33?= Class "C" including imports
(b) Including stainless steels
(c) Including malleable iron
(d) Including tin, magnesium. Alloying materials such as manganese, nickel,
chromium, and tungsten are included in the steel weights.
(e) Total dry weights without fuel or fluids
26
-------
Each table showing our projections (and Table 7 for typical
1975 models) shows a "composite automobile" materials composition,
which is just a sales weighted average of the materials composition
for the A, B and C size cars. (We also have used a domestic production
weighted average when considering material demands.) The basis for the
sales weightinp percentages is shown in Fig. 1 where .percent of market
share is plotted against year. The data base for 1968 to 1975 (only
the first two months of 1975 sales data were available at the time this
estimate was made) was received from the Motor Vehicles Manufacturers
25
Association of the U.S., Inc. They use a seven category breakdown
which is related to weight but includes some anomolies apparently due
to price-, e.g., the Corvette (approximate weight of 3400 Ibs.) sales
are included in a grouping with cars weighing 1400 to 2000 Ibs. more.
By obtaining manufacturers specified weights for the most common variant
of each model, we were able to reaggregate the MVMA data into our "A,"
"B," and "C" size categories with reasonable confidence. Sales of
foreign made cars in the U.S. were not categorized and we apportioned
them evenly between our Car B (compact) and Car C (Subcompact) categories,
As can be seen in Figure 1, the data appears to have well
tleveloped trends, with the downward trend for Car A being accentuated
for 1975, the upward trend for Car B similarly accentuated, while
for Car C the data remains fairly close to its recent historical trend.
The linear trend extrapolations to historical data obviously cannot
continue indefinitely. We have postulated a leveling off of the
Car A market share at 30% beginning about 1979 based on the following
judgment.
• A minimal market for six passenger (or larger) cars will
exist for suburban families.
27
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• The weight of the Car A category will decrease and its
fuel economy improve with time, so that the incentive for
individuals to substitute a B size car will decrease.
• The status symbol value of largeness and luxury in cars
will not entirely disappear. (Even though luxury cars will
get smaller; e.g., Chrysler "Cordoba" and Cadillac's
"Seville," they probably will never diminish to the Car B
size category.)
29
-------
SECTION III
SAFETY AND PERFORMANCE CONSIDERATIONS
The object of materials substitution is to obtain equivalent
part-for-part performance with a decreased weight of material. The
possibilities depend then on the mechanical properties of the competing
materials, the function of the component, and the operating environment.
Table 15 has been assembled to allow comparisons between some of
the steels, aluminum alloys, and plastics which are or have been proposed
for automotive use. Without belaboring the obvious, the following
observations are pertinent:
• Important steel to aluminum ratios for alloys with
comparable tensile strenth and elongations are:
- density ~ 2.8 to 1
- elastic modulus ~ 3 to 1
0 Glass laminate epoxy has the highest strength to weight
ratio of any material listed.
« Glass fibre reinforced plastics have low elongation, 5%
or less.
• Iron and steels have no competition for high strength,
high temperature applications.
Many automobile components function primarily as shields or
covers and/or provide cosmetic benefits. Included in this category are
"hang-on" parts like hoods, trunk lids, and some fenders. Where these
nonstructural parts are formed from mild steels, guage-for-guage
substitution of aluminum for steel with a consequent weight saving
factor of 2.8 is possible. Approximately double thicknesses of a
reinforced plastic-, e.g., glass fibre reinforced polyester, could
also be substituted for steel, with the weight saving factor for equal
tensile strength working out to about two.
30
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31
-------
NOTES TO TABLE 15
aNonwoven continuous glass filament base.
bHSLA-High-Strength, Low-Alloy
°ESV-Experiments safety vehicle-DOT sponsored program with four
manufacturers.
Load in Kg. divided by indentation area in mm2 for 10 mm diameter ball
pressed into surface. Test conditions differ for steel and aluminum.
eAt 70° - 80° F.
For steel and plastic, recommended service temperature from
references. For aluminum, approximate temperature for 50% decrease
in yield strength.
9For engine block service, cylinder walls are etched to expose silicon
inclusions. Wear surface thus has hardness of silicon, about the same
as iron.
References: 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33
32
-------
For structural components which provide rigidity under load,
the three-to-one disparity in elastic modulus between steel and
aluminum must be taken into account. The actual increase in guage
thickness that would be required in going from steel to aluminum to
maintain the same structural rigidity is dependent on the cross-sectional
shape of the individual members and the degree of redundancy in the
structure. When the Reynold's Aluminum Company designed an aluminum
21
body as a direct substitute for a steel design, they found that it
was necessary to increase guage thickness by an average factor of 1.4.
This resulted in the aluminum structure having a greater margin below
yield strength compared to the steel structure. The realized weight
saving was on the order of 40%.
Engine blocks would seemingly be prime candidates for
replacement of cast iron by an aluminum casting alloy of comparable
strength and good high temperature characteristics, like F-132. In
fact, aluminum blocks with cast iron cylinder inserts have appeared
from time-to-time on production automobiles, the last flurry occurring
in the early 1960's. The need for the cast iron inserts is due to the
poor wear properties of aluminum, and ultimately to the relative hard-
ness of the materials. The Brine!1 hardness numbers in Table 15 are
not strictly comparable between aluminum and steel, because the test
conditions (i.e., the applied test load) are different. That there is
a large difference in hardness is, however, readily apparent.
The aluminum block Vega engine is constructed without cast
iron inserts. A hard wear surface on the cylinder walls is obtained
by using an alloy which contains a large percentage (16 to 18) of silicon.
Chemical etching of the cylinder walls causes a slight recession of
aluminum relative to the silicon inclusions, leaving a wear surface that
•3C
is primarily silicon. Silicon has a hardness comparable to iron.
The Vega engine is vulnerable to overheat-damage; e.g., from loss of
cooling fluid. If temperatures in the cylinder walls rise much above
33
-------
500°F, softening of the aluminum and permanent damage to the cylinder walls
are likely. With strong incentives for weight reduction now operating,
it will be interesting to see which form of aluminum engine block receives
greatest acceptance.
Other engine castings can, and often are, made of aluminum-,
e.g., cylinder heads and intake manifolds, although steel inserts are
required for valve seats. Aluminum exhaust manifolds would probably
require provisions for cooling. High stress parts, like connecting rods
and crank-shafts are not likely candidates for replacement of iron by
aluminum, because the possible weight saving is negligible,* i.e., three
times as much material volume would be required to obtain the same
stiffness in these members.
34
A perusal of current safety standards issued by the National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) of the Department of Trans-
portation reveals only four that could impact on the possibilities for
replacing steel by aluminum or plastics. These are:
. No. 214 Side Door Strength
. No. 215 Exterior Protection (bumper impacts)
. No. 216 Roof Crush Resistance
. No, 301 Fuel System Integrity
As presently written it appears that none of these standards would
inhibit materials substitution.
Standard No. 215 requires passenger cars to withstand impacts
of 5 mph. and 2.5 mph. on front and rear bumpers respectively without
damage to lighting, fuel, exhaust, engine cooling or latching systems.
Passenger cars which meet these standards have bumper bars made from
either steel (most cars), or aluminum (Vega), or fibreglass reinforced
plastic (Renault). Since yield strength is the operative criterion in
this case, the possible weight saving factor over the usual mild, low
carbon steel fabrication is between 2.5 and 5 for aluminum and from 3 to
20 for glass reinforced polyester or epoxy. However, it is also evident
34
-------
from Table 15 that weight saving factors between 2 and 5 are possible
by the use of higher strength steels.
Standards No. 214 and 216 specify crush resistance require-
ments on doors and roof structures. The forces involved and the
specified crush distances do not appear to preclude use of aluminum
structural members to replace steel, either wholly or in part. (The
21
aluminum body designed by Reynolds was stated to be equivalent in
strength, or better, to its steel counterpart.) Fibreglass reinforced
body panels would, however, require aluminum or steel backup structure
because of the very limited elongation available. According to a
35
General Motors source, the Corvette fibre glass body uses steel back-
up structure to meet these standards.
The advent of the plastic fuel tank on Volkswagens and the
historical use of aluminum for truck fuel tanks eliminates any doubts
about satisfying standard No. 301 with light weight materials. Since
the usual steel gasoline tank is virtually certain to rust out at least
once in an average car lifetime (on the order of ten years), an alter-
nate construction material is long overdue.
One other safety standard that should be mentioned in passing
is No. 302 - Flamability of Interior Materials. It requires that seat
covers, padding, headliners, dashboards, and other interior materials
be "fire-retardant." Most of these materials are already made of plastics
or composites of plastics and fibres, either natural or synthetic.
All plastics will burn to some extent, being principally hydrocarbons.
However, PVC, polycarbonates, and fluorocarbons tend to be inherently
fire retardant because they release gasses during thermal decomposition
which tend to smother the flame. Fire retardation in plastics is obtained
or enhanced by using fillers such as phosphates, chlorinated synthetic
polymeric materials, antimony oxide and other compounds containing bromine,
37
chlorine, antimony and phosphorous. The principal implication for
resource recovery is that the plastics used in automobile interiors will
35
-------
be heterogenous in the extreme, making their reclamation for reuse
difficult and probably impossible. Fire retardant fillers also cause
the plastics to be less valuable as fuels, first because they must be
mixed with substantial quantities of high quality fuels for sustained
combustion, and second because the fillers tend to form noxious gasses
or residues during burning which may have to be removed from flue gasses.
For instance, hydrochloric acid is among the combustion products of PVC
and other chlorinated polymers.
Looking further afield, we note that NHTSA has recently
28
completed an Experimental Safety Vehicle program in which four
manufacturers were given contracts to design and fabricate "family
sedan" prototypes which met very severe safety standards. One aspect
of design which the NHTSA program addressed and which is of particular
concern to the choice of materials for automobile construction was
"crash energy management."* One set of test conditions involved frontal
impacts with a pole or barrier at 50 mph. The deceleration experienced
in the passenger compartment following the impact was to be limited to
40 "g's," necessitating a deceleration distance of over 25 inches. The
two manufacturers who were not primarily in the automobile business
29
(AMF and Fairchild Industries) used long stroke hydraulic cylinders,
on on o]
while the other two (GM and Ford) designed collapsing body structures. ''
With either design philosophy, the amount of energy to be ab-
sorbed and the resistance force levels that have to be developed in a
collision are directly proportional to the total mass that must be
decelerated. Hence there is a very great incentive to keep weight in
the vehicle body down to the lowest possible value. There is a compounding
*The term "crash energy management" derives from the fact that in a
collision with a fixed, rigid barrier, the kinetic energy of the moving
body must be dissipated, appearing as thermal energy in deformed structure,
or in other places such as the fluid in a hydraulic "shock" absorber.
36
-------
effect in that the weight of the energy absorbing system will be
proportional to the deceleration forces required. It is interesting to
note that in spite of these incentives, all of the prototype cars built
for the NHTSA program were very heavy vehicles, considerably heavier,
in fact, than the project specification, which called for a 4000 Ib.
vehicle. Weights ranged from about 6000 Ibs for the AMF vehicle to
90
about 5000 Ibs. for the GM vehicle.
Table 16 lists the materials actually used by the four ESV
manufacturers in their prototype cars. As such, it gives a preliminary
view of materials which might come into use if severe crashworthiness
standards were ever promulgated. Some materials choices shown; e.g.,
those for engine blocks and radiators, might reflect program funding
limits rather than designer choices; i.e., readily available components
may have been used.
The most interesting comparisons occur in the choices for
highly stressed components. For instance, choice of material was unanimous
in the frame and roof support structures all manufacturers designed
using a high strength alloy steel. As pointed out in the discussion of
material properties, there is no theoretical reason why an aluminum frame
of equal strength and approximately equal weight could not be used.
However, the overall bulk of the structural members, the increased cross
sectional sizes, and greater difficulty in fabricating the large size
pieces, probably mitigated against the choice of aluminum as opposed to
the high strength alloy steels.
During pole impacts, the bumper face bar is one of the most
highly stressed members; it must withstand the full deceleration forces
at the center of its own mass and half of the vehicle (less bumper)
deceleration forces at each of two attachment points near the ends. The
total load on the center of the bumper was calculated to be on the order
29
of 400,000 Ibs. by Fairchild. The materials choices and weights for
the front bumper bar show that two manufacturers chose aluminum alloys
37
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and two chose high strength alloy steels. The weights of the bumper
bars were all very close.* We conclude that the weight savina available
from the use of aluminum in very highly stressed structural parts is
small and high strength alloy steels may be the material of choice in
these applications.
Joining aluminum by spot welding, arc welding or with compatible
connectors presents manufacturing problems not present with steel. The
lower resistance of aluminum and its propensity to form a protective
oxide coating (an advantage in resisting corrosion) makes spot welding
more difficult than for steel and requires more expensive equipment and
more elaborate techniques. Adhesives in the joint are generally required
to bring the strength and fatigue resistance of aluminum spot welds up
21
to the level of spot welds in steel, on a weld-for-weld comparison..
An often heard assertion (at least often heard by the authors
in the course of this study) is that use of aluminum will increase auto-
mobile life by decreasing corrosion, particularly of body parts. Tests
of panels in salt spray show that aluminum fares much better than steel.
32
In one test cited by Hsu and Thompson, a panel of 2036 aluminum alloy
was jointed to a panel of 1010 steel and the combination subjected to
immersion in sea water and acetic acid for one week. By use of sealants
and protective coatings, the aluminum had been preserved from corrosion
at the interface while the steel had corroded. However the effectiveness
of protective coatings when the joint is continually flexed and strained
over a period of years is not established by such a short immersion test.
O£"
Since the aluminum has a much higher oxidation potential
than iron, the result of having aluminum and iron or steel in direct
contact with each other and with an electrolyte, such as a salt solution,
will be galvanic corrosion of the aluminum. The iron will corrode less
than if the aluminum were absent. Insulating the iron from the aluminum,
using a paint or other nonconducting coating in the steel-aluminum joint,
will stop the galvanic action and the iron will corrode at whatever
rate it would in the absence of the aluminum. A conducting path through
*Bumper bar weights were: GM 108 Ibs, Ford 90 Ibs, AMF 100 Ibs, FI 115 Ibs,
39
-------
bolts or other fasteners will negate the effect of the protective
coating. If the steel-aluminum joint is subjected to flexures during
normal use, it is possible that metal-to-metal contacts will result
from rubbing action either at the interface or at the fasteners.
Establishment of an electrical conducting path through the interface
will allow localized galvanic corrosion of the aluminum to begin.
Alloying elements can effect galvanic corrosion. Thus
stainless steels are known to promote galvanic corrosion of ordinary
mild steel. Of the two principal alloying metals in stainless steel,
chromium has a higher oxidation potential than iron, while nickel has
a lower oxidation potential than iron. If aluminum (or magnesium,
which has an even higher oxidation potential than aluminum) is inter-
posed in the steel-stainless steel circuit, the aluminum which has a
higher oxidation potential than chromium, iron or nickel will be
corroded while both steels are preserved until the aluminum is gone.
Aluminum has sometimes been used as a "sacrificial" metal in this way.
The assertion that increased use of aluminum will tend to
increase automobile longevity thus needs to be carefully examined
and qualified. If, for instance, aluminum fenders are used in a "hang-
on" mode of construction, while the basic body is made of steel, the
expected longevity of the fender will depend, in part, on the effective-
ness of the protective coatings and sealants used between the steel
body and the aluminum fender, as well as the bushings and washers used
to isolate the connectors from direct metallic contact. If the entire
body is aluminum, then the potential galvanic corrosion problem occurs
at the attachment point to the steel frame. For a unitized body and frame
of all aluminum construction, the number of exposed dissimilar metal
joints should be small and potential corrosion problem less than for
either of the aforementioned types of construction.
40
-------
The longevity of cars with increased aluminum composition
will thus depend strongly on their type of construction and the care
taken in their design and manufacture. Sealing and protecting bi-
metallic joints in a way that will not deteriorate with use is likely
to be expensive and require tight quality controls. Poor design or
sloppy manufacturing practices could lead to a decreased life expectancy
for automobiles with increased aluminum content.
Plastics do not, of course, have any corrosion problems
and may}for this reason, be favored for non structural hang-on parts.
There is, in fact, a certain appeal to the idea of a fender made of an
elastomer that will recover its shape after a minor bumping. Not all
fenders are nonstructural, however, and reinforced plastics, such as
fibreglass reinforced polyester, will not have this bounce-back
property. In fact, repairs to fibreglass body parts are generally
more expensive than similar repairs to sheet metal.
The most important limitation to the use of plastics will
be the temperature of the operating environment. Engine compartment
hoods are a case in point, where temperatures can reach 300° F under
severe conditions. This is near the upper limit for most plastics
(see Table 15) and prolonged use at such a temperature is likely to
cause some deterioration in the plastic; e.g., warping or cracking
due to breaking of some of the internal cross linkages of the polymer
chains.
41
-------
SECTION IV
DEMAND, AVAILABILITY AND PRICE OF STEEL AND SUBSTITUTE MATERIALS
FOR AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURE
The consumption needs of the automobile industry (for passenger
car production only) relative to present and projected domestic consumption
of steel, aluminum and plastics is shown in Table 17. The ranges of
values shown encompass the three materials composition scenarios
previously defined. The overall assessment from these numbers is that
the most important impact will be felt in the aluminum industry where
automotive consumption could grow from less than 8% of domestic
production in 1973 to as much as 21% in 1980 and 26% in 1985 in the
maximum aluminum car scenario. The projected growth of plastics
consumption in the total economy is large enough that automotive con-
sumption of plastics never rises above 9% of projected domestic
production.
The principal raw materials for the plastics industry are
ethane and propane separated from natural gass and naphtha type
hydrocarbons distilled from crude oil. Declining domestic production of
natural gas and crude oil might limit the attainable production of
plastics if foreign sources become unreliable or prohibitively
expensive. However, it should be noted that only 16.6% of available
•3Q
ethane and 45% of available propane were extracted from natural gas
in 1973 because economic incentives for deeper extraction were insuffi-
cient.* Also more than 50% of propane** was sold for purposes other than
39
petrochemical feedstocks. Therefore, it appears that domestic
materials for a greatly expanded plastics industry are available if prices
are high enough.
* Extraction of ethane and propane from natural gas is accomplished
by refrigeration. The amount extracted is a direct function of processing
costs.
** Principally space heating in rural areas.
42
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The present dependence of U.S. aluminum production on foreign
ore is relatively great. Less than 20% of domestic aluminum production
in 1973 was based on domestic raw materials, and recent formation of an
international cartel to control bauxite prices has had a large impact
on primary aluminum prices. By Bureau of Mines estimates, present
prices of aluminum are sufficiently high that extraction from low grade
U.S. domestic ores is economically feasible. However, the economic
lags are such that it could take as long as 10 years to attain a level
of production capacity from domestic raw materials that would equal
40
present domestic consumption. Consequently, the supply of aluminum will
remain vulnerable to foreign cartel action, and there is a remote
chance that this will inhibit substitution of aluminum for steel in
automobiles. Jn the I°n9 run» reserves of aluminum ore are virtually
inexhaustible. Expansion of secondary recovery from obsolete scrap* is
another expandable source of supply. In 1973 only 3.5% of total aluminum
consumption and 19% of secondary recovery came from reprocessing old
aluminum scrap.
The competition between aluminum and plastics for shares of
the automobile materials market could, in part, depend on material price.
We have investigated the possible changes in relative prices of steel,
aluminum, and plastics materials (and hence the relative price of the
materials entering into the automobile under the three defined materials
substitution scenarios) for changing energy price conditions. That
material costs are, in the long run, strongly influenced by energy costs
is illustrated by the comparative price-time series shown in
Table 18.
*"0bsolete" or "old" scrap is obtained from objects that have seen
functional use, as opposed to "new" scrap which is obtained from manu-
facturing waste (cutting, scraps, rejects, etc.).
44
-------
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1974
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Get
Nov
Dec
1975
Jan1
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Crude
Petroleum
100.0
100.8
105.2
106.1
113.2
113.8
126.0
211.8
178.4
201.7
201.7
201.7
201.7
201.7
224.4
225.2
225.4
226.2
231.0
223.0
223.1
228.6
230.2
232.2
234.2
256.0
Electric
Power
100.0
100.9
101.8
105.9
113.6
121.5
129.3
163.1
137.5
142.2
148.9
153.4
159.7
164.7
167.6
170.6
173.8
178.3
179.7
180.3
183.3
186.5
191.1
194.6
192.9
190.6
TABLE 18
COMPARISON OF PRICES BASED ON
WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX (1967=100)
Aluminum Ingot, Steel Mill
Primary Products
100.0 100.0
102.5 102.5
108.9 107.4
113.2 114.2
116.2 123.0
97.0 130.4
101.5 134.1
151.3 170.0
119.2 138.1
119.2 139.0
139.8 146.6
148.1 150.0
149.6 162.4
153.6 169.8
156.8 181.4
165.8 187.9
170.5 190.1
164.6 190.9
163.9 191.2
163.9 191.9
159.9 195.9
158.9 195.6
158.9 195.6
157.0 196.3
Plastic Materials
and Resins
100.0
91.
90.
90.
88.
88.
92.1
143.8
.9
.4
.6
.9
.7
93.7
96.3
116.0
123.9
128.0
140.8
147.5
160.7
174.6
179.1
181.3
183.2
J83.0
182.2
182.1
182.1
Source: Wholesale Price Index, published by Bureau of Labor Statistics.
45
-------
TABLE 19
COST OF MANUFACTURE AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL
"NonEnergy
Raw Materials Energy Inputs* Value Added
Ferrous Metals 47.9 9.6 42.5
Aluminum
--Primary 49.6 9.8 43.6
—Secondary 77.0 4.1 19.9
Plastics
—HOPE 2.20 26.39 71.41
—LDPE 2.20 26.39 71.41
--Polypropylene 2.15 10.98 86.87
—PVC 17.26 15.57 67.15
--Polyurethane 15.86 .28 83.86
--ABS & SAN Resins 24.69 6.77 68.54
*Includes energy content of petrochemical feedstocks.
46
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Components of production cost for steel, aluminum and certain
plastics are given in Table 19. Using these components as weighting
coefficients, and 1973 prices as base values, the relative prices
of the materials entering automobile manufacture have been calculated
for varying assumptions about energy costs. These are shown in Table
20. (A mix of plastics was used, based on the substitution studies of
Section II. The proportions of primary to secondary aluminum were
adjusted on the assumption that two thirds of new aluminum would be
wrought products fabricated from primary production.) The result
of this exercise shows a slight advantage to the maximum plastics
composition scenario in items of relative materials cost. The
differences are not, however, thought to be significant enough to
greatly influence materials substitution choices by the automobile
manufactures.
48
-------
SECTION V
IMPACT ON FERROUS METAL RECYCLING INDUSTRIES
The primary product of the automobile recycling industry, at
present and for the foreseeable future, is ferrous scrap. At least 50%
of the average car will be iron or steel until 1990 under any of the
scenarios we have generated. Nonferrous scrap, and in particular
aluminum scrap, is a by-product, albeit one that will become more important
in the future. Figure 2 shows the essentials of the flow of retired
automobiles back into the stream of useful materials.
In Figure 2 we show two heavily bordered blocks which represent
delays in moving cars through the recovery system. Autos that are retired
at a sufficiently early age (generally less than 6 to 7 years old) have
value as a source of reusable parts. (Unless, of course, they are retired
by total demolishment.) These newer cars move into auto wrecker/dismantler
establishments where they remain for shorter or longer periods depending
on the amount of "junk yard" storage space available to the dismantler.
Urban establishments tend to dismantle rapidly, store the parts
and keep the stripped hulks for only short periods of time. Because this
is a speculative and labor intensive mode of operation, they have to be
very selective about the age and condition of hulks they accept for dis-
mantling. Rural auto wreckers tend to do little or no dismantling until
the moment a customer arrives desiring a specific part. Thus hulks are
kept for a relatively long time and hulks with almost any prospective
parts value are accepted.
Retired autos which are not acceptable to the local dismantling
industry become a part of what is called "environmental storage." They
must be collected, prepared and shipped to an auto hulk processor; for
purposes of this study, a shredder. The collector must remove tires,
batteries and gas tanks* from the hulks before delivering them to the
shredder. He may_ remove the radiator, wheels, engine, transmission, and
*What happens to gas tanks is a mystery. No entities contacted by the
authors admitted to having anything to do with them.
49
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differential for disposal through other scrap material market channels
if available prices warrant the cost of removal. On the optional items,
the choice to remove or not is purely economic. Recent trends appear to
be toward less removal of optional items, especially engines and power
train components. Apparently shredder operators have no qualms about
putting engine blocks and similar ferrous castings through their machines.
The central part of the automobile materials recycling industry
is, of course, the auto hulk processor. Until recently, the output of
balers exceeded that of shredders but this relationship apparently was
reversed in the first quarter of 1975,* We expect the shredders to
widen their dominance over balers in the coming years. The advent of
autos with substantial portions of their hulks made of nonferrous metals
can only tend to accentuate this trend.
Turning first to the ferrous scrap industry, we show in Figure
3 the relationship of scrap from automobile sources to all ferrous scrap
in 1973. It should be noted that the total available obsolete scrap in
any given year from nonautomotive sources is much greater than the amount
of automobile scrap from retired autos. Put another way, the recycling
ratio for autos (60% to 80% in 1971) is high relative to many other sources
of obsolete ferrous scrap, such as household appliances (30%) and obsolete
industrial machinery (5%).
Total domestic scrap requirements have recently been forecast
for EPA as shown in Table 21. We note that scrap requirements of the major
part of the steel industry? i.e., the basic oxygen and open hearth capacity,
are expected to remain essentially constant, despite an increase in produc-
tion of 22% from 1970 to 1985. The major increase in scrap requirements
is expected to be generated by the threefold increase in electric furnace
capacity over the same period.
Exports are also a major market for obsolete scrap generated in
the U.S. In recent years, U.S. exports of ferrous scrap have been gener-
ally in the range of 1.5 to 2% of world steel production except when
*Domestic consumption of shredded scrap totaled 745,057 tons in the first
quarter of 1975 vs. 664,287 tons for no. 2 and all other bundles in the
first quarter of 1974. Export totals were 567,632 tons vs. 344,438 tons.
51
-------
Auto
Scrap
4%
Non-Auto
Scrap
5% ^
Prompt
'Scrap
13%
Obsolete
Scrao
9%
Home
Scrap
29%
Purchased
Scrap
22%
Total
Scrap
51%
Pig Iron
49%
Iron & Steel Industry
Ferrous Raw Materials
Inputs
1973 figures & estimates
Figure 3. Sources of Ferrous Inputs to Domestic Iron & Steel Industry
52
-------
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limited by the Federal Government. In 1973, over 11 million tons of
ferrous were exported, of which about 2 million tons were shredded and
1.2 million tons were baled scrap, mostly of automotive origin.
Based on our study of domestic and worldwide steel production,
and historic scrap utilization ratios, we project total ferrous scrap
requirements as shown in Figure 4. The recent history of shredded and
baled scrap utilization, as a percentage of net total domestic receipts
of all scrap is shown in Figure 5, along with linear projections to 1985.
Although year-to-year data is somewhat ragged, the trend of displacement
of baled scrap by shredded scrap is unmistakable. Similar data for ex-
ported ferrous scrap is shown in Figure 6. The long term tendency toward
displacement of baled scrap by shredded scrap is again apparent but
somewhat overshadowed by the steeply rising growth trend of exported
shredded scrap. Putting these results together, we arrive at the pro-
jections for shredded and baled scrap requirements shown in Figure 7.
Using a methodology similar to that employed by Booz-Allen in
an earlier study for EPA,^ we have developed estimates of automobiles
required for processing by shredders and balers, assuming historical
input ratios of automobiles to other sources, as nearly as these could be
determined. The results are shown in Figure 8. The excess of automobiles
retired over those processed in the years prior to 1973 led to a backlog
of unprocessed automobiles stored in the environment and in junk yards.
This number reached alarming proportions by 1973 - probably on the order
of 13.5 x 10 automobiles although the range of uncertainty is large.
The projected shortfall of available deregistered automobiles shown in
Figure 7 should rapidly deplete this inventory, provided, of course, that
alternate sources of scrap do not displace automobile hulks. The projected
buildup and depletion of the unprocessed automobile hulk inventory is depicted
in Figure 9.
The depletion of the unprocessed automobile inventory will not
occur if this inventory is located out of the economic transportation range
of a processor. In the course of this study, we have compiled an up-to-
date list of shredder operators in the U.S. (see Appendix H) and checked it
54
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1960
1965
1970 1975
Year
1980
1985
Figure 9. Cumulative Unprocessed Automobiles
60
-------
against a previous list issued by the Institute of Scrap Iron and Steel
in March of 1971. (The 1971 list appears in Adams. ) The locations of
shredders are shown on the map in Figure 10 together with an indication
of the possible areas of the contiguous U.S. where transportation of
hulks to the nearest shredder might be unprofitable (shaded).* Iw his
study of the economics of the automobile hulk processing business,
Adams** calculated that with shredded scrap prices at $307ton, a shredder
operator with an annual capacity of 50,000 tons or greater could afford
to pay for transportation of flattened hulks, 20 to a truckload, for
over 400 miles. Present scrap prices for No. 1 heavy melting scrap (shredded
scrap equivalent) are in excess of $80 per ton (as of this writing). De-
flating this to 1973 price levels gives an equivalent price of $60 per ton.
Hence, the economic drawing radius of an average size shredder is well in
excess of 400 miles and we can conclude that essentially all of the conti-
guous U.S. can supply hulks to the presently structured shredder industry.
While presenting the results of this study at the "Technology
of Automobile Crushing and Shredding Institute" at the University of
Wisconsin-Extension, October 16-17, 1975, the authors had an opportunity
to discuss the availability of automobile hulks with shredder operators
and hulk collectors from several areas of the country. Their remarks
generally confirmed that hulks are becoming harder to obtain, that all the
readily accessible hulks in "environmental storage" have generally been
salvaged, and that collectors commonly pay for hulks for which in former
years they could demand a removal payment. One collector in the Appalachian
region of Virginia indicated that he now found it profitable to collect
hulks that were abandoned in remote backwoods areas. Recovery of hulks
from remote mountainous areas of Appalachia, (e.g., West Virginia, which
has no shredders within its borders) may still lag the trend elsewhere
but actual salvage statistics could not be obtained from any official
source.
*Alaska and Hawaii have no shredders.
**Ref. #5, page 117.
61
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The .indicated shortfall of automobile scrap can be only
exacerbated by the changing material composition and decreased size of
future automobiles. This is illustrated in Figure 11 where scrap require-
ments and availability of automobile scrap are compared. Since the
average lifetime of an automobile is about 10 years, the full effects
will not be felt until the fairly distant future (1990 and beyond).
The prospective shortfall of hulks to supply shredders can
evoke the following responses or some combination:
• A more rapid displacement of balers from the auto hulk
processing business in favor of shredders.
. An increased utilization of obsolete scrap sources other
than automobiles; e.g., large applicances, obsolete industrial
machinery.
« A contraction of shredder capacity and increased domination
of the .industry by larger well-financed operators.
« An effort by larger shredder operators to safeguard their
source of supply by long term contracts with auto wreckers,
or vertical integration of their operations to include some
aspects of the auto wrecking or hulk collection business.
The displacement of balers by shredders will be further
reinforced in a climate of competition for auto hulks by the following
factors:
• Shredder scrap is of higher quality than baler scrap,
commands a significantly higher price, and is more readily
accepted by steel mills and foundries as raw materials.
• Hulk preparation for shredding is simpler and less
labor intensive than hulk preparation for baling.
, Costs per hulk processed are much lower for shredders than
for balers, under typical operating conditions. 5> 6
63
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The installed capacity of the shredder industry, in terms of
the nominal-, i.e. claimed, capacity of installed units has been growing
rapidly and at about the rate of our projections of demand for shredded
scrap, but at a higher absolute level. This is shown in Figure 12. (The
difference between the two shredder capacity lines is due to the existence
of a few shredders which do not use automobile hulks as input. Auto-
mobile shredders use hulks as their primary input but shred other items
also
65
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66
-------
SECTION VI
IMPACT ON NONFERROUS METAL RECYCLING INDUSTRIES
Nonferrous metals recovered from automobiles include lead,
copper, zinc and aluminum. Of these, recovered lead is primarily obtained
from the storage battery, an easily removed item. Copper is recovered
from the radiator, a relatively easily dismantled part provided the car
is not being deregistered due to a severe front end collision. Copper
wire is distributed throughout the hulk, and is rather difficult to
recover economically. Zinc and aluminum are distributed throughout the
automobile, mostly in the form of castings.
In Figure 2, we show several routes for nonferrous auto
scrap recovery which circumvent the central auto hulk processor. Any
nonferrous metal recycling from automobiles which are baled must go
through one of these subsidiary circuits since separation after baling
is impractical. For automobile hulks which are processed by shredding,
some nonferrous output is obtained as mixed metals by magnetic separation
from the ferrous output, and air separation from dirt, plastics, fibres,
and other waste. The amount of nonferrous mixed metals that will arrive
at the shredder output is dependent on both the nonferrous content of
the original car, and also on the amount removed by the auto hulk
collector and/or the auto wrecker/dismantler. Both of these factors
must be considered when assessing the impact of increased aluminum use
on shredder operations.
Most shredder operators send their nonferrous fraction to a
specialized plant (either their own, if they operate enough shredders
to support such a plant, or a plant of one of the larger shredder operators)
for segregation into metallic components of sufficient purity to be
salable to secondary metals smelters. Usually some heavier pieces of
nonmetallic material (e.g., rubber hoses and vibration dampers) escape
the air separation process and must also be removed. In some instances,
shredder operators have integrated their operations beyond the separation
stage and into secondary smelter operations. Thus the larger vertically
67
-------
integrated operators have a substantial interest in obtaining and
processing the nonferrous metal part of automobil-e hulks.
At the present time, zinc is an important constituent of the
nonferrous fraction of shredder outputs. It is generally used in small
castings throughout the car where mechanical strength requirements are
modest and/or a bright chrome-plated finish is desired. Therefore,
hand removal by dismantlers for scrap value is generally uneconomic.
Since zinc boils (at 1 atm pressure) at 907°C (compared to 2567°C for
copper, 2750°C for iron, and 2467°C for aluminum) it is separable at
reasonable purities by distillation. Thus if most aluminum (lighter
in weight), copper (different color), and nonmetallics are separated
from the nonferrous fraction, the remainder may be rich enough in zinc
to be a suitable input to a secondary zinc smelter.
As noted previously, we expect the use of zinc in automobiles
to decrease in the coming decade. It is likely to be replaced by
platable plastics in decorative functions, and by aluminum or magnesium
elsewhere. Our 1990 projections show zinc usage at 1.5% to 3.5% of
aluminum usage in a typical automobile.
Copper also will become less and less important as a constituent
of the nonferrous fraction of shredder output. Phase out of copper
alloy radiators in favor of aluminum would eliminate the single largest
copper contributor. We expect copper usage in 1990 automobiles to be
in range of 3% to 7% of aluminum usage. As will be shown subsequently,
many alloy products of secondary aluminum smelters require copper content
in this range. It is possible that separation of copper from aluminum
in the nonferrous fraction of shredder output is really unnecessary.
However, its distinctive color makes it one of the easier metals to
separate by "hand-picking" methods.
68
-------
Eventually, aluminum is going to be the most important component
of the nonferrous fraction of shredder output. With 1980 cars having
aluminum content of 11% to 25% by weight of the iron and steel content,
the physical volume in 1990 of the aluminum in the nonferrous fraction
of shredder output could be 1/3 to 3/4 of the ferrous fraction volume.
(We emphasize could because the extent to which aluminum will be separated
from a hulk prior to shredding is uncertain.) The major market for this
recyclable aluminum is the secondary aluminum smelter industry. A look
at the structure of this industry is appropriate.
Considering that aluminum consumption in the U.S. is currently
in the 6 million ton per year range and has been above 2 million tons
per year for the last 20 years, the amount of aluminum that is
recovered annually from old scrap is surprisingly small - about 200,000
tons in 1973. The data in Table 22 shows the relationship of recovery
from old scrap to total consumption since 1967. Clearly, great amounts
of aluminum are being stored in our environment. The amounts of old
aluminum scrap that could become available from retired automobiles in
1990 is on the order of 1 to 2 million tons or about 8% to 15% of
expected total consumption in 1990. Utilization of this much old scrap
by the secondary aluminum industry would require an expansion of secondary
production relative to primary production, and/or a greater use of old
scrap relative to new scrap than is current practice in the secondary
aluminum industry.
The principal product of the secondary aluminum industry is
casting alloys. However, casting alloys comprise less than 20% of total
aluminum consumption, the remainder being mostly wrought alloys. For
various technical reasons, to be discussed subsequently, the secondary
aluminum industry does not presently compete with primary producers in
the wrought alloys market. This, even though their raw materials (old and
new scrap) must be mostly wrought alloys, since wrought alloys are used
in aluminum products at a 5 to 1 ratio to casting alloys. We thus
69
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have the preponderant flow of materials being from the primary metal
producers into wrought alloy products and new scrap, then to secondary
metal producers and into casting alloy products. An increase in
secondary metal production relative to primary metal production thus
implies either an increase in the use of casting alloys relative to
wrought alloys or a need for secondary producers to enter the wrought
alloys market. (Of course, at least a decade is available for the
adjustments to be made.) The recent history of secondary aluminum
recovery and its relationship to wrought alloy and casting alloy pro-
duction is shown in Table 23.
As a consumer of aluminum the automobile industry is presently
rather inverted from the remainder of the economy, using preponderantly
casting alloys. However, the trend in recent years has been toward
greater use of wrought products. Future use of aluminum in automobiles
will be heavily into sheet metal body parts, and structural members
such as bumpers and frames. These will require wrought aluminum alloys.
We estimate that of the increased aluminum in automobiles in 1980 and 1990,
relative to 1975, two-thirds of the increase will be in wrought alloys.
Table 24 shows some recent history of shipments to the automobile industry
and our estimate for 1980 and 1990 for the maximum aluminum automobile
scenario. For other scenarios, the shift to wrought versus cast alloys
will be less severe but still pronounced. The expected response to the
combined stimuli of increased old aluminum scrap availability (from
retired autos) and a decrease in demand for cast alloys relative to wrought
alloys is increased secondary production, relative to primary production,
and some penetration by the secondary producers into the wrought alloy
market, provided the technical difficulties of producing wrought alloys
from secondary sources, particularly old scrap, can be overcome.*
*If a very high degree of segregation of old scrap of a particular wrought
alloy can be achieved, production of that wrought alloy from scrap would, of
course, be possible. The best example would be aluminum beverage cans, the
collection of which is currently being subsidized by the primary aluminum
producers.
71
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The difficulty in producing wrought alloys from secondary
sources is made evident by a comparison of specifications for wrought
and cast alloys, as shown in Table 25. The important differences from a
recycling standpoint are:
The low tolerance of wrought alloys for iron and silicon
versus the large requirements for silicon and hiqh tolerance
for iron of casting alloys.
The high percentage of copper required in many alloys,
both wrought and casting.
The relatively large tolerance for zinc of some casting
alloys and the large zinc requirement of the high strength
wrought alloy 7178.
The relatively large impurity tolerances of casting alloys, particularly
for iron and zinc, is the reason that secondary smelters prefer to make
casting alloys. Neither dissolved ironnorzinc can be separated from a
melt of aluminum scrap by any economically feasible process. The only
way to lower the iron or zinc content is to dilute the melt with scrap
that is known to be low in these elements. New scrap purchased from
a fabricator or pure aluminum purchased from a primary producer are the
only likely sources of material with a known and suitable composition
for dilution.
The general run of old and new scrap used by a secondary
smelter is probably a 5 to 1 mix of wrought alloy and casting alloy,
as in fabricated products. As such, it is probably too rich in iron
(screws, etc.) to go into a wrought alloy and deficient in silicon and/or
copper for the casting alloys. Hence9secondary smelters must purchase
much copper scrap and metallurgical silicon, at prices well above aluminum
scrap. Therefore they would probably welcome a mixed scrap of high
silicon and copper content, but low in iron and zinc content for their
casting alloy business. In order to divert part of their output to
74
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wrought alloys, they would probably prefer a scrap free from casting
alloys and where some extra effort has been made to reduce iron content;
e.g., finer shredding and additional magnetic separation to get rid of
the screws, bolts, and nuts.
The nonferrous metal fraction of cars now being shredded
(1965 model vintage) probably consists of almost equal proportions of
aluminum and copper with larger amounts of zinc.^ Hence,it is of little
value without extensive separation. We have found most operators of
separation plants to be reluctant to discuss the particular methods
they use but we surmise that the processing may include additional
shredding and magnetic separation, screening (eliminates small pieces
and facilitates succeeding steps), washing (to bring out distinctive
colors), and hand sorting. Use of sink-float (i.e.,"heavy-media"
separation) separation methods, so-called "aluminum magnet" devices,
and devices which exploit the ballistic characteristics of particles (generally
called "elutriators or classifiers") is widely discussed but no reliable
indication of the extent to which they are actually in use could be
46
obtained. The Bureau of Mines has an extensive reserach program on
such devices at their Salt Lake City research center and other places,
but were unable to provide estimates on the extent of their commercial
application.
When 1980 vintage cars are entering the resource recovery
cycle, about 1987 to 1990, the zinc content of the nonferrous metal
output of shredders will be small relative to the aluminum content but
probably not small enough to completely ignore. Rejection of most of
the zinc from the nonferrous metal shredder output, along with residual
nonmetallic pieces, may be the prime concern. Retention of the small
copper content of the nonferrous output with the aluminum may be
advantageous. This suggests that exploitation of the lower melting
point of zinc (419°C) relative to aluminum (660°C) or copper (1083°C)
may become a preferred separation technique. Part of the heat required
76
-------
could be provided by the nonmetallics (plastics, rubber) that accompany
the nonferrous fraction or that appear in the waste fraction.
In order to obtain an aluminum scrap from auto hulks that
would be a suitable raw material for wrought alloy production, it is
probable that some separation of wrought alloys would be necessary
before shredding. Hand removal of hang-on parts like hoods and trunk
lids should be relatively easy but iron contamination or admixture of
casting alloys from latches, hinges and springs may be a problem. Actual
operating procedures in the resource recovery industries will develop
as the economic factors warrant.
Aluminum engine blocks of the Vega type (390 alloy in Table 25)
may become relatively valuable scrap items because of the high silicon
content. Metallurgical grade silicon is currently more expensive than primary
aluminum. A large, easily recognized aluminum alloy object of known
composition and high silicon content should bring a premium price in the
aluminum scrap market. It may pay for the labor for removal and disassembly
of the engine to market the block separately.
77
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SECTION VII
INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF AUTOMOBILE COMPOSITION
CHANGES USING THE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT SYSTEM
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF SEAS
The Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) is
a collection of interdependent models which were created by the
Environmental Protection Agency in order to forecast the state of the
environment and the economic impacts of pollution control. The system
is modular in nature, consisting of 28 computational and input/output
computer programs which are associated with 13 modules. These modules
are illustrated in Figure 13. Each module can be run independently
(assuming the data base has been generated by a preceding module if
necessary). The shaded modules in the diagram were used for this
study. They were chosen as the most significant modules for the
analysis.
IN FORUM: The INFORUM model is a niacroeconomic model, linked to an
input-output model, which was created by Clopper Almon of the University
of Maryland. It makes annual forecasts in constant dollars to 1985 of
the output of 185 commercial, industrial and agricultural sectors which
comprise the entire U.S. economy. A sample of the output follows
(Table 26). Outputs are expressed in constant 1971 dollars, which is the
"base year" for INFORUM. (Our detailed study of auto composition used
1975 as the base year since data on auto composition was most readily
available for that year. The parameters for automobile industry pur-
chases were adjusted to the newer data.)
SECTOR DISAGGREGATION: This module subdivides the economy into approxi-
mately 350 additional sectors, by techniques developed at IR&T to pro-
vide more detail in the industrial sector so that pollution loadings
could be more accurately forecast. The output of this module is provided
in Table 27.
78
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NATIONAL RESIDUALS: This module links pollution loadings to outputs of
sectors. The pollution loadings forecast the level of pollution abatement
control equipment which is being applied to each sector. Gross pollution
refers to pollution loadings which would occur if no control technology
were instituted. Net pollution loading is the actual emissions to the
environment. A sample output is presented in Table 28.
SOLID WASTE: The solid waste module estimates both the quantity of
solid waste generated, and the level of recycling in a manner
consistent with the national economic forecasts provided by INFORUM.
A sample of the solid waste model is presented in Table 29.
METHODOLOGY: Four scenarios were constructed and implemented in the
SEAS model. They were:
(1) No change in materials composition of the automobile
from the 1971 level
(2) Most probable car
(3) Maximum credible aluminum car
(4) Maximum credible plastic car.
The projected cases, (2), (3) and (4), were based on our automobile
materials composition study summarized in Section II. They reflect the
possible options for substitution of aluminum and plastic for iron and
steel and copper in the trend toward smaller and lighter vehicles which
consume less fuel and materials resources. A base case, (1) above,
was run in the model to allow comparison with a no materials substitu-
tion scenario.
The scenarios were implemented by changing the technical
coefficients (A matrix element) in the INFORUM model. Each technical
coefficient represents the value of material purchases required per
dollar of output of a given industrial sector. In this case, the
revised coefficients represented the projected required purchases of
ferrous metals, aluminum, plastics, and copper, by the automobile
industry, for the three cases: most probable, maximum credible aluminum
and maximum credible plastic automobile.
82
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automobile for 1980 and 1985 was computed based on the estimates made for
each case. This fraction was then used to revise the appropriate "A"
matrix coefficients currently in the model. Not only direct sales of
materials to the automobile industry were taken into account, but also
sales of materials through intermediate industries; i.e., the sales of
iron and steel to metal stampings, which produce body fenders for auto-
mobiles. Revised coefficients approximated nearly all of the direct and
indirect sales of materials to the motor vehicle industry. All other
"A" coefficients as projected in the input-output table were left unchanged.
Also, projections of total output of the motor vehicle industry made by
the model were not changed.
The second change made in the model was that the average
miles per gallon for automobiles projected to be on the road in 1985 was
computed to take into account the fuel savings of the smaller and
lighter automobiles. The revised miles per gallon figure was applied
to the vehicle miles travelled forecast in the SEAS transportation
model to obtain an estimate of savings in gasoline consumption. This
was reflected in reduced consumer demand for gasoline in the final
demand part of the INFORUM model.
Another assumption was that any decline in the demand for
petroleum from reduced gasoline consumption was reflected in decreased
imports of crude petroleum.
RESULTS: The INFORUM module provided economic and energy results,
the RESIDUAL module provided air/water pollution results and SOLID
WASTE provided results on solid waste generation, recycling levels and
scrap availability. Each of these results will be discussed separately.
The primary conclusion of the economic analysis is that in spite
of the fact that the automobile industry is the largest sector of the
economy, the overall impact of major changes in material requirements for
the industry is minimal. This fact is demonstrated in Table 30 where the
projected aggregate economic statistics for each scenario are
85
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compared. The unemployment rate slightly increases, imports decrease,
and all other statistics remain about the same. One interesting
result is that the unemployment resulting from decreases in production
of the primary industries, steel and petroleum refining, industries
directly related to the automobile industry, is less significant
than unemployment resulting from secondary sectors of the economy
indirectly related to the automobile industry. This can be seen in
Table 31.
The individual industries most affected were tnose directly
related to the automobile industry; i.e., petroleum refining, iron and
steel, aluminum, and plastics. The impacts of changing the composition
of the automobile damp out rather quickly and those industries which
are more than two steps removed from the automobile industry are not
usually affected by more than 1%. This is illustrated in Figure 14
which links the industries affected by the substitutions into a sequence
of sales for scenario (3), the maximum aluminum car as compared to the
base case.
Two other major economic conclusions can be derived from
this integrated analysis which were not evident prior to the running
of SEAS:
(1) Even though plastic sales to automobiles in the maximum
plastics scenario increases 260% per car in 1985 over
the base scenario, overall plastics output is only
3.43% greater than the base scenario in 1985. The
model thus indicates that the sale of plastics to
other industries is growing so rapidly as to overwhelm
the increasing sales of plastics to automobiles.
(2) In the maximum aluminum car scenario (3), 4.4 x 10
BTUk of energy are saved over the base case scenario (1),
The SEAS models, in conjunction with other sources,
provide an estimate on how this savings is achieved.
87
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TABLE 31
EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS FOR THE
MAXIMUM ALUMINUM CAR
SI S3
PRIMARY IMPACTED INDUSTRIES
Steel and Iron
Petroleum Refining
Nonferrous Metals
Plastics
Metal Stampings
SECONDARY IMPACTED INDUSTRIES13
757,500
206,800
343,000
298,000
439,900
105,214,800
665,200
186,000
389,000
304,000
428,500
105,127,300
S3 - SI
- 92,300
- 20,800
+ 46,000
+ 6,000
- 11 ,400a
- 87,500
TOTAL
107,260,800 107,100,000 -165,000
aThis estimate may be too high because the model makes projections in
terms of dollar value. Lighter cars will use lighter and smaller
stampings with less value, but this does not necessarily mean that
fewer employees will be required to produce them.
secondary impacted industry most affected is mining with a decrease
of 5,000 jobs of 1.62.
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81.6% (3.6 x 10 BTUs) of this savings is achieved
as a result of reduced gasoline consumption, resulting
from a higher miles per gallon. 6.3% (.28 x 1015
is attributable to savings in automobile production
and 12.1% (.537
in the economy.
and 12.1% (.537 x 1015 BTUs) from general reductions
POLLUTION ANALYSIS: The impacts of the material substitutions on
the environment reflect to a certain extent the economic impacts. The
pollution results are presented in Table 32 and indicate that pollution
generated from the entire economy is reduced slightly from the base
case. Though the national impact is minimal, there is a reduction in
pollutants due to decreased petroleum refining and iron and steel
production, two of the major industrial polluters.
Communities with petroleum refining and steel plants will
notice a degree of reduced pollution. However, if EPA regulations
are enforced by 1985, the reduced emissions resulting from these
lower production levels are unlikely to have a significant impact even
on a local level. The reduction from pollution controls outweighs the
reductions resulting from material substitutions.
SOLID WASTE MODULE
The impact on scrap availability can be seen in Figures 15
and 16 where scrap made available from iron and steel and from aluminum
is plotted through 1995. Substantial increases in total available
obsolete scrap are indicated for both cases. Aluminum scrap availability
exhibits a proportionately greater increase than ferrous metals. However,
the impact on solid waste is not felt until the late 1980s and early
1990s because of the time lag between production and actual disposal
of the material into the waste system.
90
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TABLE 32
COMPARISON OF POLLUTION RESIDUALS (%)
BETWEEN BASE CASE AND
MOST PROBABLE CAR
-1985-
AIR POLLUTION
1. Participates
Petroleum Refining
Steel
Aluminum
Total
2. Sulphur Oxides
Petroleum Refining
Steel
Total
3. Nitrogen Oxides
4. Hydrocarbons
Petroleum Refining
Steel
Tptal
5. Carbon Monoxide
Petroleum Refining
Steel
Total
MATER POLLUTION
9. Biochemical Oxygen Demand
10. Chemical Oxygen Demand
n. Suspended Solids
% Difference
Gross
-10.0%
- 9.6%
+ 7.4%
- .71%
-10.0%
- 9.6%
- 2.8%
- .4%
-14.6%
- 9.6%
- 7.3%
-10.0%
- 9.7%
- 3.7%
- .06%
- .10%
- .1%
-10.0%
- 9.2%
+ 6.9%
-1.22%
-10.0%
- 9.7%
- 1.7%
- .38%
-16.2%
- 9.7%
- 1.4%
-10.0%
- 9.7%
- .1%
- .16%
- .11%
- .9%
17. Oil/Greases
Petroleum Refining
Steel
Total
59. Phenols
Petroleum Refining
Steel
Total
-10.0%
- 9.7%
- 1.9%
-10.0%
- 9.7%
- 6.4%
-10.0%
- 9.7%
- 9.5%
-10.0%
- 9.7%
- 4.0%
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There is approximately a 10% difference in total available
iron and steel and aluminum scrap in each case by 1995. However,
there is a significant impact on the availability of scrap derived
from automobiles, with a 40% decline in iron and steel scrap from the
base case and a greater than twofold increase in aluminum.
The critical question posed by the substitution of ferrous
metals is whether or not a sufficient quantity of scrap will be avail-
able for the requirements of the iron and steel industry. Automobiles
have traditionally supplied a major portion of obsolete scrap to be
recycled as discussed in the previous part of this report and as projected
in the SEAS solid waste module. The major constraints upon the use of
nonautomotive sources of ferrous scrap have been economic, reflected
in their scattered locations, high processing costs, and problems of
contamination. Automobile scrap, available in units capable of being
bundled or shredded and often brought to centralized disposal sites
has provided a good supply of scrap for the iron and steel industry.
According to analysis done in this study independent of SEAS, the
annual retirement of automobiles will not be sufficient by the mid-198Cfs
to provide the scrap in the same proportion to what has been supplied
in the past. This analysis is based on projected scrap requirements
of the steel industry and capacity of the shredder industry assuming
its present rate of growth.
Given this conclusion, the question arises whether or not
other portions of the economy generate sufficient quantities of ferrous
scrap capable of being recycled and thus fill the gap created by increased
shredder capacity and demand for scrap by the iron and steel industry.
The solid waste model provides estimates of recycled
material and assumes increases in the rate of recycling for various
product categories. Based on the projected iron and steel furnace
scrap requirements, total purchased scrap requirements would be 64.7
94
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and 58.4 million tons in 1985 for each case as presented in Table 33.
The solid waste model estimates that 58.6 and 54.3 million tons will be
recycled in that year. Thus, a shortfall of 6.1 and 4.1 million tons is
projected in each respective case assuming no scrap exports. With tra-
ditional export levels, the projected shortfall will be greater. It is
interesting to note that the base case incurs a greater shortfall than
the most probable because of projected higher scrap requirements for steel
making. This projection agrees with the conclusion that ferrous scrap
shortage is likely if recycling of nonautomotive products is not encour-
aged. Even though the solid waste model assumes some increases in recycling
of nonautomotive products based on an optimistic industry projection, a
shortfall occurs. Consumer durables (appliances) and industrial machinery
may be considered as potential sources of concentrated scrap which could
be economically recycled beyond the projections made in the solid waste
model given a rise in scrap prices and assuming increased shredder capa-
city. Potential scrap from these sources is presented in Table 33 and
is more than sufficient to cover the projected gap in scrap demand. This
value does not include the backlog of presently discarded nonautomotive
products.
The major conclusion of this analysis is that the ferrous
scrap situation will be tight. Given increasing shredder capacity, scrap
dealers may be driven into greater utilization of nonautomotive discarded
products for sources of scrap. This situation would help to alleviate
our national solid waste problem and may produce increased economic
incentives to the resource recovery of municipal solid waste.
95
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TABLE 33
IRON AMD STEEL SCRAP REQUIREMENTS9
-1985-
Base Most Probable
Case Case
Iron and Steel Output 153,884 139,045
Home Scrap at 35% of
Total Production 82,861 74,870
Total Iron and Steel Production 236,945 213,915
Total Scrap Requirements 147,600 133,253
Home Scrap 82,861 74,870
Purchased Scrap Requirements 64,739 58,383
Prompt 26,320 23,782
Obsolete 38,419 34,601
Total Scrap Recycled 32,256 30,548
Shortfall 6,163 4,053
Potential Scrap from
Household Durables and
Machinery 8,846 8,846
Total Available Obsolete Scrap 95,845 93,820
aScrap requirements for 1985 were computed based on the following
projections for iron and steel furnaces:
Production Scrap
Level (%) Requirements (%_^
Basic Oxygen 55.9 33
Open Hearth 6.2 50
Electric Arc 26.0 98
Foundry 11.9 93
plus an additional estimate for the requirements of blast and miscellaneous
furnaces. These levels were derived from estimates presented in Working
Paper #6 and in Battelle's Identification of Opportunities for Increased
Recycjing_ of Ferrous Solid Waste, EPA, 1972. Other estimates were based
on results in the Solid Waste/Recycling Model.
96
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SECTION VIII
REFERENCES
1. Automobile Disposal - A National Problem: U.S. Dept. of Interior,
Bureau of Mines, Washington, D.C. 1967.
2. Regan, W. J., R. W. James, and T. J. McLeer. "Identification of
Opportunities for Increased Recycling of Ferrous Solid Waste."
Institute of Scrap Iron and Steel, Inc., Washington, D.C.
PB-213-577, 1972.
3. The Automobile Cycle: An Environmental and Resource Reclamation
Problem, SW-80ts. 1, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1972.
4. An Analysis of the Abandoned Automobile Problem, Booz-Allen Applied
Research, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland.PB-221879, 1973.
5. Adams, R.I., "An Economic Analysis of the Junk Automobile Problem,"
I.C. 8596, U.S. Dept. of Interior, Bureau of Mines, Washington, D.C.
1973.
6. Sawyer, J.W., Automotive Scrap Recycling Processes, Prices and
Prospects. Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. 20036, 1974.
7. Potential for Motor Vehicle Fuel Economy Improvement, Report tg^
Congress, U.S. Dept. of Transportation and U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, 24 October 1974.
8. K. C. Dean and J. W. Sterner, "Dismantling a Typical Junk Automobile
to Produce Quality Scrap," RI 7350, U.S. Dept. of Interior, Bureau
of Mines, December 1969.
9. The World Automotive Industry to 1995, Vol. I, The Industry and Its
Markets, Business International Corporation, New York, N.Y., 1975.
10. J. J. Harwood, "Materials Resources - R&D Response," Industrial
Research Institute Symposium, Boca Raton, Florida, May 7, 1974.
11. "Car Weight = 61% Steel," Automotive Industries, May 15, 1974.
12. Ward's Automotive Yearbook, 1974 Edition.
13. Individual estimates obtained by correspondence with manufacturers.
14. Z.G. Garland, "Raw Material Sources for Automotive Plastics," SAE
Paper 750187, February 1975.
97
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15. R.H. Hernold, "Weight Reduction of Automotive Parts by Use of
Polypropylene," SAE Paper 750154, Feb. 1975.
16. D.H. O'Neill, "Innovative Design, Not Size, Distinguishes American
Minicars," SAE Journal of Automotive Engineering, Vol. 78, No. 10,
October 1970.
\
17. E.D. Trueman, "Weight Saving Approaches Through the Use of Fibre-
Glass Reinforced Plastic," SAE Paper 750155, Feb. 1975.
18. C.N. Cochran, "Aluminum--Villian or Hero in Eneray. Crisis?"
DAE Journal of Automotive Engineering, Vol. 81, No^ 6, June 1973..
19. "Ford Die-Castinq in Aluminum," Automotive Industries, Vol. 151,
No. 3, August 1, 1974.
20. "New VW Uses Light Plastic Fuel Tank," SAE Journal of Automobile
Engineering, Vol. 82, No. 4, April 1974.
21. K.F. Glaser and G.E. Johnson, "Construction Experience on Aluminum
Experimental Body," SAE Paper 740075, Feb. 1975.
22. "Use of Aluminum in Auto," Task Force on Energy Saving, The
Aluminum Association, Automotive Industries, Feb. 1, 1975.
23. S.M. Frey, "Automotive Use of Plastics in the Next Ten Years,"
SAE Journal of Automotive Engineering, Vol. 82, No 1, Jan. 1974.
24. D.G. Adams, et.al. "High Strength Materials and Vehicle Weight
Reduction Analysis," SAE Paper 750221, Feb. 1975.
25. "Motor Vehicles and Energy," Statistics Department, Motor Vehicles
Manufacturers Associations of the U.S., Inc., January 1974 plus
supplementation data for 1974 and the first two months of 1975.
26. H.E. McGannon, ed. The Making. Shaping and Treating of Steel,
United States Steel Co., 8th Edition, 1964.
27. "Metals Handbook, Vol. 1. Properties and Selection of Metals,"
Metals Park, Ohio.
28. Alexander, G.H., R.D. Vergara, J.T. Harridge, W. Millicovsky, and
M.R. Neale, "An Evaluation of the U.S. Family Sedan ESV Project,"
DOT HS-801255, U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C., October 1974.
98
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29. "Report of the Second International Technical Conference on Exper-
imental Safety Vehicles," Sindelfingen, Germany, Oct. 26-29, 1971.
(Section 2, Part 1 contains reports of the AMF, Fairchild Industries,
Ford and General Motores vehicles). DOT, NHTSA, Washington, D.C. 20590.
30. "Ford Experimental Safety Vehicle," DOT/HS-800980, DOT, NHTSA,
Washington, D.C. 20590.
31. "Experimental Safety Vehicle (Phase Two), Developed by General
Motors A-2853," DOT/HS-800659, DOT, NHTSA, Washington, D.C. 20590.
June 20, 1975.
32. Hsu, G.S. and D.S. Thompson, "Aluminum Sheet Alloys for Automobile
and Truck Bodies," Sheet Metal Industries, Dec. 1974.
33. Modern Plastics Encyclopedia, McGraw-Hill, N.Y., 1972.
34. "Summary Description of All Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards,"
NHTSA, DOT, Washington, D.C., Feb. 1975.
35. Mr. David Reed of GM Materials Division.
36. Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, Chemical Rubber Press, Cleve-
land, Ohio, 1974.
37. Holderried, J.A., "Flame Retardants," in 1969-1970, Modern
Plastics Encyclopedia, pp. 274-286. McCraw Hill, N.Y. 1970.
38. J.C. Saxton, et.al., "Industrial Energy Study of the Industrial
Chemicals Group," IRT-342-R, International Research and Technology
Corporation, Arlington, Virginia, July 31, 1975.
39. M.O'Farrell and R.W. Roig, "End-Uses of Petroleum Production in
the U.S., 1965-1975," IRT-391-R, International Research and
Technology, Arlington, Virginia, July 31, 1975.
40. Mineral Facts and Problems, 1974, U.S. Bureau of Mines, Dept of
"the Interior, Washington, D.C.
41. Minerals Yearbook, 1973 Aluminum preprint, U.S. Bureau of Mines,
Dept. of the Interior, Washington, D.C.
42. 1972 Census of Manufactures, Dept. of Commerce, Washington, D.C.
43. J.C.- Saxton, et.al., "The Economic Impact of Water Pollution Control
Costs Upon the Chemical Processing Industries," IRT-390-R,. Inter-
national Research and Technology, Arlington, VA, August 1975.
99
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44. "Mineral Industry Surveys, Iron and Steel Scrap, Monthly," U.S.
Dept'. of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Washington, D.C. 20240.
45. "Aluminum Statistical Review, 1973," Statistical and Commercial
Research Policy Committe, The Aluminum Assocation, Inc.
46. Froisland, L.J., K.C. Dean, L. Peterson, and E.G. Valdez, "Recovering
Metal from Nonmagnetic Auto-Shredder Reject," R.I. 8049, Bureau of
Mines, Dept. of the Interior, Washington, D.C. 1975.
100
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1 REPORT NO.
EPA-600/5-76-007a
2.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Impacts of Material Substitution in Automobile Manu-
facture on Resource Recovery -Vol. I: Results and
Summary
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSI Ol* NO.
5. REPORT DATE
July 1976 _
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
R.W. Roig, W.L. Henn, T. Jones, M. Narkus-Kramer,
R. Renner, A. Watson, C. Weaver
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
IRT-403-R
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
International Research and Technology Corporation
1501 Wilson Boulevard
Arlington, Virginia 22209
1 HC 619
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
68-01-3142
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
Office of Research and Development
Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D.C. 20460
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Final Report
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
EPA-ORD
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
"Technology of Automobile Crushing and Shredding" presented at University of
Wisconsin-Extension, 16-17 October 1975.
is.ABSTRACT probable changes in the mix of materials used to manufacture automobiles
were examined to determine if economic or technical problems in recycling could
arise such that the "abandoned automobile problem" would be resurrected. Future trend
in materials composition of the automobile were quantified, and possible constraints
related to material characteristics, availability, and price were examined. The auto-
mobile resource recovery industry was studied in terms of economic incentives for re-
cycling and technical obstacles to recycling of deregistered automobiles. A macro-
model of the economy, the EPA sponsored SEAS model, was used to study overall economic
and environmental effects and to bring to light any secondary effects that might be
important.
The major conclusions are that auto hulks are likely to be in great demand for
recycling, that the backlog of abandoned cars in the environment will very likely dis-
appear by the early 1980's and that changes in materials composition of autos will
accentuate this tendency. Vertical integration of the larger firms in the industry is
a likely trend at both the input (hulk collection, dismantling, and preparation for
shredding) and output (non-ferrous metals smelting) ends of the central hulk process-
ing (shredding) part of the business. Overall economic impacts of the various auto-
mobile materials composition scenarios we studied were rather small, although effects
in particular industries, relative to a base-case, no-c~hange in materials composition
scenario, were nnr.irpahlp.
17.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
c. COS AT I Field/Group
Materials Recovery - Reclamation,
Salvage, Separation.
Materials Replacement - Substitutes.
Automobiles.
13-B
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release unlimited
19. SECURITY CLASS (This Report)
UNCLASSIFIED
21. NO. OF PAGES
111
20. SECURITY CLASS (Thispage)
UNCLASSIFIED
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
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