Energy From The West Impact Analysis Report Volume Ii Site Specific And Regional Impact Analyses

600779082B Energy From the West Impact Analysis Report Volume 11: Site-Specific and Regional Impact Analyses By Science and Public Policy Program University of Oklahoma IrvinL. White Edward B. Rappaport Michael A. Chartock Frank J. Calzonetti R. Leon Leonard Mark S. Eckert Steven C. Ballard Timothy A. Hall Martha W. Gilliland Gary D. Miller Edward J. Malecki Michael D. Devine Managers, Impact Analysis Report R. Leon Leonard, Science and Public Policy University of Oklahoma Martha W. Gilliland, Energy Policy Studies, Inc. C. Patrick Bartosh James L. Machin B. Russ Eppright Dennis D. Harner Thomas W. Grimshaw David Cabe Milton Owen SamA.Gavande KenChoffel W.F.Holland Timothy J. Wolterink Carl-Heinz Michelis Jim Sherman Michael W. Hooper Prepared for: Office of Research and Development U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Project Officer: Steven E. Plotkin Office of Energy, Minerals and Industry ------- DISCLAIMER This report has been reviewed by the Office of Energy, Minerals and Industry, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, now does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. ------- FORWARD The production of electricity and fossil fuels inevitably impacts Man and his environment. The nature of these impacts must be thoroughly understood if balanced judgements concerning future energy development in the United States are to be made. The Office of Energy, Minerals and Industry (OEMI), in its role as coordinator of the Federal Energy/Environment Research and Development Program, is responsible for producing the informa- tion on health and ecological effects - and methods for miti- gating the adverse effects - that is critical to developing the Nation's environmental and energy policy. OEMI's Integrated Assessment Program combines the results of research projects within the Energy/Environment Program with research on the socioeconomic and political/institutional aspects of energy development, and conducts policy - oriented studies to identify the tradeoffs among alternative energy technologies, development patterns, and impact mitigation measures. The Integrated Assessment Program has supported several "technology assessments" in fulfilling its mission. Assess- ments have been supported which explore the impact of future energy development on both a nationwide and a regional scale. Current assessments include national assessments of future development of the electric utility industry and of advanced coal technologies (such as fluidized bed combustion). Also, the Program is conducting assessments concerned with multiple- resource development in two "energy resource areas": o Western coal states o Lower Ohio River Basin This report, which describes the impacts likely to be experienced when six energy resources are developed in eight western states, is one of three major reports produced by the "Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource Development" study. (The other two reports describe the technologies likely to be used and analyze policy problems and issues that can be expected to arise.) The report is divided into two volumes. The first or summary volume introduces the study, describes the development alternatives which were assessed and summarizes the results of the impact analyses which were conducted. The second volume reports the detailed results of both site-specific and 111 ------- regional impact analyses. The report has been designed to be useful to laypersons as well as persons who have a professional interest in energy resource development. And results are pre- sented in a way which make this report a useful planning hand- book for both professional planners and interested citizens. We would like to receive your comments concerning this report. 'Such comments will help us to improve the usefulness of the products produced by our Integrated Assessment Program. ^ Steven R. Rezne(K Acting Deputy Assistant Administrator for Energy, Minerals and Industry IV ------- PREFACE This Impact Analysis Report has been prepared as part of "A Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource Development" being conducted by an interdisciplinary research team from the Science and Public Policy Program (S&PP) of the University of Oklahoma for the Office of Energy, Minerals and Industry (OEMI), Office of Research and Development (ORD), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This study is one of several conducted under the Integrated Assessment Program established by OEMI in 1975. Recommended by an interagency task force, the purpose of the Program is to identify economically, environmentally, and socially accepta- ble energy development alternatives. The overall purposes of this particular study were to identify and analyze a broad range of consequences of energy resource development in the western U.S. and to evaluate and compare alternative courses of action for dealing with the problems and issues either raised or likely to be raised by development of these resources. The Project Director was Irvin L.(Jack) White, Assistant Director of S&PP and Professor of Political Science, at the University of Oklahoma. White is now Special Assistant to Dr. Stephen J. Gage, EPA's Assistant Administrator for Research and Development. Michael D. Devine, now Project Director, supervised the final stages of producing this report. R. Leon Leonard and Martha W. Gilliland have had pri- mary management responsibility for producing this report. Leonard, now a Senior Scientist with the Radian Corporation in Austin, Texas, was a Co-Director of the research team, Associate Professor of Aeronautical, Mechanical, and Nuclear Engineering and a Research Fellow in S&PP while the study was being conducted. Gilliland is Executive Director of Energy Policy Studies, Inc., El Paso, Texas. Steven E. Plotkin, now with the Office of Technology Assessment, was the EPA Project Officer. v ------- Other S&PP team members are: Michael A. Chartock, a Co-Director of the research team and Associate Professor of Ecology; Steven C. Ballard, Assistant Professor of Political Science; Edward J. Malecki, Assistant Professor of Geography; Edward B. Rappaport, Visiting Assistant Professor of Geogra- phy; Frank J. Calzonetti, Research Associate in S&PP; Timothy A. Hall, Research Associate in S&PP; Gary D. Miller, Graduate Research Assistant (Civil Engineering and Environmental Science); Mark S. Eckert, Graduate Research Assistant (Geogra- phy) ; Dipak Kumar Sinha, Graduate Research Assistant (Aeronau- tical, Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering); and Michael E. Vanderpool, Graduate Research Assistant (Aeronautical, Mechanical, and Nuclear Engineering). Professors Ballard, Devine, Malecki, and Rappaport are also Research Fellows in S&PP. Radian Corporation, Austin, Texas, has been a major contributor to this impact analysis report. C. Patrick Bartosh, Program Manager, has directed the Radian effort. Radian Personnel who contributed to the study are: B. Russ Eppright, Thomas W. Grimshaw, Milton Owen, Ken Choffel, Timothy J. Wolterink, Jim Sherman, James L. Machin, Dennis D. Harver, David Cabe, Sam A. Gavande, W.F. Holland, Carl Heinz Michelis, and Michael W. Hooper. Water Purification Associates, Cambridge, Massachusetts, conducted a study of water requirements for steam-electric power generation and synthetic fuel plants; and the Center for Advanced Computation, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign conducted a study of route specific costs comparisons of alternative transportation modes. Results of both studies have contributed to this report. Several persons no longer with S&PP or Radian partici- pated in the early stages of the research upon which this report is based. Three are now in graduate school at other universities: Gary N. Bloyd at Carnegie-Mellon University, Lori L. Serbin at Ohio University, and Patrick Kangas at the University of Florida. Gerald M. Clancy, William D. Conine and E. Douglas Sethness, Jr., have moved from Radian to other corporate positions. VI ------- ABSTRACT This is the final impact analysis report of a three-year tech- nology assessment of the development of six energy resources (coal, geothermal, natural gas, oil, oil shale, and uranium) in eight west- ern states (Arizona, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming) during the period from the present to the year 2000. Volume I describes the purpose of the study and sum- marizes the results and conclusions of the analysis. In Volume II, more detailed analytical results are presented. Six chapters report on the analysis of site-specific impacts of deploying typical energy resource development technologies at sites representative of the kinds of conditions likely to be encountered in the eight-state study area. A seventh chapter of Volume II identifies localized impacts, which do not differ significantly from site to site. A last chapter focuses on regional impacts likely to occur across the eight states if energy resources are developed at two different levels from the present to the year 2000. In addition to these two volumes of the Impact Analysis Report, the Policy Analysis Report and the Energy Resource Development Systems Report are published separately. Vll ------- OVERALL TABLE OF CONTENTS FOR ENERGY FROM THE WEST: IMPACT ANALYSIS REPORT VOLUME I Page Foreword Preface Abstract List of Figures List of Tables List of Acronyms and Abbreviations xv-i Conversion Table x-cx Acknowledgements xx PART I: INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER 1: AN INTRODUCTION TO WESTERN ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT 2 CHAPTER 2: STRUCTURE OF THE STUDY 15 CHAPTER 3: THE IMPACTS OF WESTERN ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 41 VOLUME II PART II: SITE-SPECIFIC AND REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS 160 CHAPTER 4: THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE AREA 169 CHAPTER 5: THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE NAVAJO/FARMINGTON AREA 268 CHAPTER 6: THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENTS AT THE RIFLE AREA 383 Vlli ------- Table of Contents (Continued) CHAPTER 7: THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE GILLETTE AREA CHAPTER 8: THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COLSTRIP AREA CHAPTER 9: THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE BEULAH AREA CHAPTER 10 CHAPTER 11 GLOSSARY LOCALIZED IMPACTS REGIONAL IMPACTS 491 612 722 822 914 1092 IX ------- TABLE OF CONTENTS VOLUME II SITE-SPECIFIC AND REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS Page Foreword Abstract List of Figures List of Tables xu PART II: SITE-SPECIFIC AND REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS 160 I I.I INTRODUCTION 160 I I. 2 IMPACT ANALYSIS METHODS 160 II. 2.1 Air Impact Analysis 160 II. 2. 2 Water Impact Analysis 162 II. 2. 3 Social and Economic Analysis 165 II. 2. 4 Ecological Methodology 167 II. 3 INTERACTIONS AMONG CATEGORIES OF IMPACTS 168 CHAPTER 4: THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE AREA 169 4.1 INTRODUCTION 169 4. 2 AIR IMPACTS 174 4.2.1 Existing Conditions 174 4.2.2 Factors Producing Impacts 177 4.2.3 Impacts 179 4.2.4 Summary of Air Impacts 192 4.3 WATER IMPACTS 193 4.3.1 Introduction 193 4.3.2 Existing Conditions 193 4.3.3 Factors Producing Impacts 200 4.3.4 Impacts 205 4.3.5 Summary of Water Impacts 212 4.4 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS 214 4.4.1 Introduction 214 4.4.2 Existing Conditions 214 4.4.3 Factors Producing Impacts 217 4.4.4 Impacts 219 4.4.5 Summary of Social and Economic Impacts 247 4.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 248 4.5.1 Introduction 248 ------- Table of Contents (Continued) Page 4.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions 248 4.5.3 Factors Producing Impacts 249 4.5.4 Impacts 251 4.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts 261 4.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE 264 CHAPTER 5: THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE NAVAJO/FARMINGTON AREA 2-68 5.1 INTRODUCTION 268 5.2 AIR IMPACTS 273 5.2.1 Existing Conditions 273 5.2.2 Factors Producing Impacts 276 5.2.3 Impacts 280 5.2.4 Summary of Air Impacts 295 5.3 WATER IMPACTS 296 5.3.1 Introduction 296 5.3.2 Existing Conditions 296 5.3.3 Factors Producing Impacts 302 5.3.4 Impacts 309 5.3.5 Summary of Water Impacts 318 5.4 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS 320 5.4.1 Introduction 320 5.4.2 Existing Conditions 320 5.4.3 Factors Producing Impacts 325 5.4.4 Impacts 332 5.4.5 Summary of Social and Economic Impacts 355 5.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 356 5.5.1 Introduction 356 5.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions 357 5.5.3 Factors Producing Impacts 360 5.5.4 Impacts 362 5.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts 373 5.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT NAVAJO/FARMINGTON 379 CHAPTER 6: THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE RIFLE AREA 383 6.1 INTRODUCTION 383 6.2 AIR IMPACTS 389 6.2.1 Existing Conditions 389 6.2.2 Factors Producing Impacts 390 6.2.3 Impacts 393 6.2.4 Summary of Air Impacts 411 6.3 WATER IMPACTS 412 6.3.1 Introduction 412 6.3.2 Existing Conditions 412 6.3.3 Factors Producing Impacts 416 6.3.4 Impacts 424 6.3.5 Summary of Water Impacts 435 xi ------- Table of Contents (Continued) Page 6.4 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS 437 6.4.1 Introduction 437 6.4.2 Existing Conditions 437 6.4.3 Factors Producing Impacts 441 6.4.4 Impacts 445 6.4.5 Summary of Social and Economic Impacts 469 6.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 471 6.5.1 Introduction 471 6.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions 471 6.5.3 Factors Producing Impacts 473 6.5.4 Impacts 473 6.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts 485 6.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS FOR THE RIFLE SCENARIO 487 CHAPTER 7: THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE GILLETTE AREA 491 7.1 INTRODUCTION 491 7.2 AIR IMPACTS 497 7.2.1 Existing Conditions 497 7.2.2 Factors Producing Impacts 499 7.2.3 Impacts 503 7.2.4 Summary of Air Impacts 520 7.3 WATER IMPACTS 522 7.3.1 Introduction 522 7.3.2 Existing Conditions 522 7.3.3 Factors Producing Impacts 525 7.3.4 Impacts 538 7.3.5 Summary of Water Impacts 546 7.4 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS 548 7.4.1 Introduction 548 7.4.2 Existing Conditions 549 7.4.3 Factors Producing Impacts 551 7.4.4 Impacts 558 7.4.5 Summary of Social and Economic Impacts 584 7.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 586 7.5.1 Introduction 586 7.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions 587 7.5.3 Factors Producing Impacts 589 7.5.4 Impacts 591 7.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts 602 7.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT GILLETTE 608 CHAPTER 8: THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COLSTRIP AREA 612 8.1 INTRODUCTION 612 8.2 AIR IMPACTS 617 8.2.1 Existing Conditions 617 xii ------- Table of Contents (Continued) Page 8.2.2 Factors Producing Impacts 618 8.2.3 Impacts 621 8.2.4 Summary of Air Impacts 633 8.3 WATER IMPACTS 634 8.3.1 Introduction 634 8.3.2 Existing Conditions 634 8.3.3 Factors Producing Impacts 639 8.3.4 Impacts 649 8.3.5 Summary of Water Impacts 657 8.4 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS 658 8.4.1 Introduction 658 8.4.2 Existing Conditions 658 8.4.3 Factors Producing Impacts 661 8.4.4 Impacts 667 8.4.5 Summary of Social and Economic Impacts 696 8.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 698 8.5.1 Introduction 698 8.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions 698 8.5.3 Factors Producing Impacts 700 8.5.4 Impacts 702 8.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts 713 8.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT COLSTRIP 719 CHAPTER 9: THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE BEULAH AREA 722 9.1 INTRODUCTION 722 9.2 AIR IMPACTS 726 9.2.1 Existing Conditions 726 9.2.2 Factors Producing Impacts 728 9.2.3 Impacts 730 9.2.4 Summary of Air Impacts 743 9.3 WATER IMPACTS 744 9.3.1 Introduction 744 9.3.2 Existing Conditions 744 9.3.3 Factors Producing Impacts 751 9.3.4 Impacts 758 9.3.5 Summary of Water Impacts 766 9.4 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS 768 9.4.1 Introduction 768 9.4.2 Existing Conditions 768 9.4.3 Factors Producing Impacts 772 9.4.4 Impacts 776 9.4.5 Summary of Social and Economic Impacts 798 9.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS \ 799 9.5.1 Introduction 799 9.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions 800 9.5.3 Factors Producing Impacts 802 9.5.4 Impacts 803 xiii ------- Table of Contents (Continued) Page 9.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts 814 9.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT BEULAH 817 CHAPTER 10: LOCALIZED IMPACTS 822 10.1 INTRODUCTION 822 10.2 AIR IMPACTS 822 10.2.1 Sulfates 822 10.2.2 Oxidants 825 10.2.3 Fine Particulates 827 10.2.4 Long-Range Visibility 828 10.2.5 Plume Opacity 830 10.2.6 Cooling Tower Salt Deposition 832 10.2.7 Cooling Tower Fogging and Icing 834 10.2.8 Fugitive Dust 835 10.2.9 Startup and Shutdown 835 10.2.10 Air Impacts of Geothermal Development 836 10.3 TRACE ELEMENTS 836 10.4 SOLID WASTE TREATMENT AND DISPOSAL 841 10.4.1 Application of Holding Ponds 841 10.4.2 Effects of Ponds or Landfills on Groundwater 844 10.5 NOISE IMPACTS 848 10.5.1 Introduction 848 10.5.2 Criteria for Noise Impacts 849 10.5.3 Surface Strip Mining 852 10.5.4 Plant Construction 852 10.5.5 Plant Operation 856 10.6 AESTHETIC IMPACTS 858 10.6.1 Introduction 858 10.6.2 Land 858 10.6.3 Air 861 10.6.4 Noise 861 10.6.5 Water 862 10.6.6 Biota 862 10.6.7 Man-Made Objects 862 10.7 PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACTS 863 10.7.1 Introduction 863 10.7.2 Residuals from Energy Development 864 10.7.3 Respiratory Problems 867 10.7.4 Cancer 876 10.7.5 Systemic Illness 885 10.7.6 Population-Related Health Problems 889 10.8 IMPACTS ON OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH AND SAFETY 893 10.8.1 Introduction 893 10.8.2 Summary of Safety Risks 894 10.8.3 Coal Development 894 10.8.4 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Development 903 10.8.5 Geothermal Resource Development 904 10.8.6 Oil Shale Development 907 xiv ------- Table of Contents (Continued) Page 10.8.7 Uranium Development 910 10.8.7 Summary of Occupational Health and Safety 913 CHAPTER 11: REGIONAL IMPACTS 914 11.1 INTRODUCTION 914 11.1.1 Location of Development 914 11.1.2 Levels of Development 917 11.1.3 Development Options 925 11.2 AIR IMPACTS 928 11.2.1 Introduction 928 11.2.2 Existing Conditions 928 11.2.3 Emissions 931 11.2.4 Inadvertent Weather Modification 943 11.3 WATER IMPACTS 951 11.3.1 Introduction 951 11.3.2 Impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin 951 11.3.3 Impacts in the Upper Missouri River Basin 968 11.3.4 Summary of Regional Water Impacts 983 11.4 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS 984 11.4.1 Introduction 984 11.4.2 Population Impacts 985 11.4.3 Economic Impacts 992 11.4.4 Public Services 1001 11.4.5 Social and Cultural Effects 1005 11.4.6 Political Impacts 1009 11.4.7 Energy-Related Economic Growth Impacts 1011 11.4.8 Personnel REsources Availability 1019 11.4.9 Capital Availability 1027 11.4.10 Summary of Regional, Social, Economic, and Political Impacts 1035 11.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 1036 11.5.1 Introduction 1036 11.5.2 Impacts from Water Consumption 1037 11.5.3 Terrestrial Habitat Degradation by Changing Land Use 1041 11.5.4 Ecological Impacts of Sulfur Pollution 1059 11.5.5 Summary of Regional Ecological Impacts 1069 11.6 TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS 1070 11.6.1 Introduction 1070 11.6.2 Magnitude of Transportation Activity 1070 11.6.3 Input Requirements 1078 11.6.4 Impacts 1083 xv ------- LIST OF FIGURES VOLUME II Page 4-1 Kaiparowits/Escalante Area of Southern Utah 170 4-2 The Location of Hypothesized Energy Development Facilities in the Kaiparowits/Escalante Area 171 4-3 Air Impacts of Energy Facilities in the Kaiparowits/ Escalante Scenario 184 4-4 Water Supplies and Pipelines for the Kaiparowits/ Escalante Scenario 194 4-5 Water Consumption for a 3,000 Megawatt-Electric Power Plant at Kaiparowits/Escalante, Utah 203 4-6 Estimated Households and School Enrollment in Kane County, 1975-2000 226 4-7 Estimated Households and School Enrollment in Garfield County, 1975-2000 227 4-8 Estimated Households and School Enrollment in Page, 1975-2000 228 4-9 Median Family Income, Kane and Garfield Counties, 1975-2000 232 4-10 Estimated Annual Income Distribution for Kane and Garfield Counties, 1975-2000 233 4-11 Human Activities in the Kaiparowits/Escalante Area 252 5-1 The Navajo/Farmington Scenario Area 269 5-2 The Location of Energy Development Facilities in the Navajo/Farmington Area 270 5-3 Air Impacts of Energy Facilities in the Navajo/ Farmington Scenario 283 5-4 Surface Water Features and Water Impacts at Navajo/ Farmington 297 5-5 Water Consumption for Energy Facilities in the Navajo/Farmington Scenario 306 5-6 Population Estimates for Non-Navajo Portion of San Juan County, 1980-2000 337 5-7 Population Estimates for Navajo Reservation Portion of San Juan County, 1975-2000 338 6-1 Location of the Rifle Scenario Area 384 6-2 Energy Facilities in the Rifle Scenario 385 6-3 Air Impacts of Energy Facilities in the Rifle Scenario 397 6-4 Water Pipelines for Energy Facilities in the Rifle Scenario 413 xvi ------- List of Figures (Continued) Page 6-5 Water Consumption for Energy Facilities in the Rifle Scenario 421 6-6 Population Estimates for Garfield County, 1980-2000 448 6-7 Population Estimates for Rio Blanco County, 1980-2000 448 6-8 Estimated Number of Households and School Enrollment in Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties, 1980-2000 452 6-9 Median Family Income, Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties, 1970-2000 457 6-10 Projected Annual Income Distribution for Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties, 1975-2000 458 7-1 Map of the Gillette Scenario Area 492 7-2 Energy Facilities in the Gillette Scenario 493 7-3 Surface Water Sources in the Vicinity of Gillette 523 7-4 Water Consumption for Energy Facilities in the Gillette Scenario 530 7-5 Water Pipelines for Energy Facilities in the Gillette Scenario 532 7-6 Population Estimates for Campbell County, Gillette, and Casper, 1975-2000 563 7-7 Projected Number of Households, Elementary and Secondary School Children in Campbell County, 1975-2000 567 7-8 Projected Annual Income Distribution for Campbell County, 1975-2000 571 7-9 Expected Habitat Value Trends for Particular Animal Groups after Disturbance with Attempted Rehabilita- tion to Perennial Grasslands 604 8-1 The Colstrip Scenario Area 613 8-2 The Location of Energy Development Facilities at Colstrip 614 8-3 Important Hydrologic Features of the Colstrip Scenario Area 635 8-4 Water Consumption for Energy Facilities in the Colstrip Scenario 645 8-5 Water Pipelines for Energy Facilities in the Colstrip Scenario 646 8-6 Transportation Facilities in the Rosebud County Area 660 8-7 Population Estimates for Rosebud County, 1975-2000 670 8-8 Projected Number of Households, Elementary and Second- ary School Children in Rosebud County, 1975-2000 677 8-9 Projected Annual Income Distribution for Rosebud County, 1970-2000 681 8-10 Population Estimates for Billings and Miles City, 1975-2000 682 9-1 The Beulah Scenario Area 723 9-2 Energy Facilities in the Beulah Scenario 724 9-3 Water Pipelines for Energy Facilities in the Rifle Scenario 745 9-4 Water Consumption for Energy Facilities in the Beulah Scenario 754 xvii ------- List of Figures (Continued) Page 9-5 Population Estimates for Beulah Scenario Area, 1975-2000 780 9-6 Population Estimates for Oliver and McLean Counties and Bismarck-Mandan, 1980-2000 781 9-7 Projected Number of Households, Elementary, and Secondary School Children in Mercer County, 1975-2000 784 10-1 Oxidant Concentration by Site 826 10-2 Typical Surface Coal Mine Configuration 854 10-3 Radiated Noise for Typical Coal Mining Operation 855 10-4 Radiated Noise for Typical Power Plant Construction 857 10-5 Radiated Noise for Typical Power Plant Operation 859 10-6 Fraction of Inhaled Particles Deposited in the Three Respiratory Tract Compartments as a Function of Mass Median Diameter 875 11-1 General Distribution of Coal Resources in Eight Western States 915 11-2 General Distribution of Oil Shale Resources in Eight Western States 915 11-3 General Distribution of Uranium Resources in Eight Western States 916 11-4 General Distribution of Geothermal Resources in Eight Western States 916 11-5 Projected Increase Above 1975 Levels of Emissions in Two Subregions, Low Demand Scenario 939 11-6 Growth of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in the Nominal Dirty Scenario 944 11-7 Growth of Oxides of Nitrogen Emissions in the Nominal Dirty Scenario 945 11-8 Growth of Particulate Emissions in the Nominal Dirty Scenario 946 11-9 Growth of Hydrocarbon Emissions in the Nominal Dirty Scenario 947 11-10 Decline of Carbon Monoxide Emissions in the Nominal Dirty Scenario 948 11-11 Sources of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in Colorado and Arizona, 1980-2000 949 11-12 Upper Colorado River Basin 952 11-13 Subbasins of the Missouri River Basin 969 11-14 Environmental Compliance Dates Assumed in Strategic Environmental Assessment Systems Scenarios 1014 11-15 Annual Construction Expenditures on Water and Sewer Systems 1016 11-16 Conversion/Transport Configurations 1071 11-17 Utility Coal Transportation from Western Sources, Year 2000 1072 11-18 High Btu Gas Transmission from Western Region, Nominal Demand Case, Year 2000 1075 XVlll ------- List of Figures (Continued) Page 11-19 Liquid Pipeline (Crude Oil, Shale Oil, Coal Syncrude) Energy Transported from Western Region, Nominal Demand Case, Year 2000 1076 11-20 Electricity Transmitted from Western Region, Nominal Demand Case, Year 2000 1077 11-21 Noise Level of Passing Coal Train 1089 11-22 Day-Night Average Sound Level as a Function of Coal Train Frequency and Coal Tonnage 1091 LIST OF TABLES VOLUME II Page II-l Coal Composition for Site Specific Scenarios 163 4-1 Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at Kaiparowits/Escalante 172 4-2 Selected Characteristics of the Kaiparowits/ Escalante Area 174 4-3 Air Quality Measurements at Page, Arizona 176 4-4 Comparison of Emissions from One 3,000 Megawatt Power Plant with New Source Performance Standards 178 4-5 Pollution Concentrations from Power Plant at Kaiparowits 181 4-6 Pollution Concentrations from Power Plant at Escalante 182 4-7 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Emission Controls at Kaiparowits/Escalante Power Plants 185 4-8 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack Heights at Kaiparowits/Escalante Power Plants 186 4-9 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Plant Sizes at Escalante Power Plant 188 4-10 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Relocating the Escalante Power Plant from a Complex to a Flat Terrain 188 4-11 Pollution Concentrations Due to Urban Sources at Kaiparowits New Town in 1990 191 4-12 Groundwater Quality Data for Kaiparowits Scenario 196 4-13 Storage and Water Quality Data for Lake Powell 198 4-14 Estimated 1975 Surface Water Resources and Uses for Utah in the Upper Colorado River Basin 199 4-15 Water Requirements for Energy Facilities at Kaiparowits 201 4-16 Effluents from Coal Conversion Process at Kaiparowits/Escalante 205 4-17 Expected Water Requirements for Increased Population 210 4-18 Expected Wastewater Flows from Increased Population 210 xix ------- List of Tables Page 4-19 Population of Kane and Garfield Counties and County Seats, 1940-1974 215 4-20 Employment Distribution in Kaiparowits Area, 1974 217 4-21 Manpower Requirements for One 3,000 Megawatt Power Plant and Associated Coal Mine 218 4-22 Capital Resources Required for Construction of Facilities 219 4-23 Construction and Operation Employment for Kaiparowits Scenario, 1975-2000 220 4-24 Population Estimates for Page and Communities in Kane County, 1975-2000 222 4-25 Population Estimates for Communities in Garfield County, 1975-2000 223 4-26 Age-Sex Distribution for Page and Kane and Garfield Counties 224 4-27 Estimated Housing Demand in Kane and Garfield Counties, and Page, 1975-2000 225 4-28 Estimated School Enrollment in Kane and Garfield Counties and Page 229 4-29 Finance Prospects for Kane and Garfield Counties and Page School Districts, 1975-2000 230 4-30 Projected Income Distribution for Kane and Garfield Counties, 1975-2000 234 4-31 Property Tax Revenues 236 4-32 Allocation of Federal Coal Royalties 237 4-33 Revenue from Sales and Use Taxes 238 4-34 Government Fees for Services 239 4-35 Summary of Revenues from Energy Development 239 4-36 Capital Requirements of Local Governments by Quinquennia 240 4-37 Increases in Operating Expenditures of Selected Levels of Government 241 4-38 Selected Characteristic Species of Main Habitat Types in Kaiparowits/Escalante Scenario 250 4-39 Land Use in Kaiparowits/Escalante Scenario 253 4-40 Habitat Losses over Time in the Kaiparowits/ Escalante Scenario 254 4-41 Summary of Major Factors Affecting Ecolo'gical Impacts 261 4-42 Forecasts of Population Status of Major Species for the Kaiparowits/Escalante Scenario 263 5-1 Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at Navajo/ Farmington 271 5-2 Selected Characteristics of the Navajo/Farmington Area 274 5-3 Emissions from Facilities 277 5-4 Comparison of Emissions from Power Plant with New Source Performance Standards 279 5-5 Pollution Concentrations from Lurgi Plant at Farmington 281 xx ------- List of Tables (Continued) Page 5-6 Pollution Concentrations from Synthane Gasification Plant at Farmington 285 5-7 Pollution Concentrations from Synthoil Liquefaction Plant/Mine Combination at Farmington 286 5-8 Pollution Concentrations from Power Plant/Mine Combination at Farmington 288 5-9 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Power Plant Emissions Controls at Navajo Power Plant 289 5-10 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack Heights at Navajo Power Plant 290 5-11 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Plant Sizes at Navajo Power Plant 291 5-12 Pollution Concentrations Due to Urban Sources at Farmington 293 5-13 Flow Characteristics of the San Juan River 299 5-14 Operating Conditions for Navajo Reservoir 300 5-15 New Mexico's Present and Projected San Juan River Water Allocations 301 5-16 Water Quality in San Juan River for 1973 303 5-17 Water Requirements for Energy Facilities at Farmington 304 5-18 Water Requirements for Reclamation 307 5-19 Effluents from Energy Conversion Facilities at Farmington/Navajo 308 5-20 Expected Water Requirements for Increased Population 312 5-21 Wastewater Treatment Characteristics for Towns Affected by the Navajo Scenario 314 5-22 Expected Wastewater Flows from Increased Population 315 5-23 Employment Distribution in San Juan County, 1973 324 5-24 Manpower Requirements for a 3,000 Megawatt Power Plant and Associated Mine 326 5-25 Manpower Requirements for a Lurgi Plant and Associated Mine 327 5-26 Manpower Requirements for a Synthane Plant and Associated Mine 328 5-27 Manpower Requirements for a Synthoil Plant and Associated Mine 329 5-28 Manpower Requirements for an Underground Uranium Mine and Processing Mill 330 5-29 Capital Resources Required for Construction of Facilities 331 5-30 New Employment in San Juan County from Energy Development and Navajo Indian Irrigation Project, 1975-2000 333 5-31 Assumed Secondary/Basic Employment Multipliers for Navajo/Farmington Scenario, 1976-2000 334 5-32 Population Estimates for San Juan County 336 5-33 Estimated Number of Households and School Enrollment in San Juan County, 1975-2000 340 5-34 Projected Income Distribution for San Juan County, 1975-2000 343 xxi ------- List of Tables (Continued) Page 5-35 Fiscal Impacts on Navajo Tribal Government 347 5-36 Projected Additional Utility Fees and Property Taxes, Nonreservation Communities 347 5-37 Projected Additional Income and Sales Taxes 348 5-38 Projected Tax Revenues, Privilege and Severance Taxes 348 5-39 Projected Total Revenues from All Sources 349 5-40 Summary of Additional Local Governmental Expenditures and Revenues, Off-Reservation 350 5-41 Selected Components of Main Communities, Navajo/ Farmington Scenario 358 5-42 Land Use by Scenario Facilities 361 5-43 Land Use in Farmington Scenario Area 363 5-44 Potential Livestock Production Foregone in the • Navajo/Farmington Scenario Area 364 5-45 Forecast of Population Status of Selected Species for the Farmington Scenario 375 5-46 Summary of Major Factors Affecting Ecological Impacts 377 6-1 Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at Rifle 386 6-2 Selected Characteristics of the Rifle Area 388 6-3 Emissions from Facilities 391 6-4 Comparison of Emissions from Power Plant with New Source Performance Standards 393 6-5 Pollution Concentrations from a 1,000 Megawatt Power Plant at Rifle 395 6-6 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Emission Controls at Rifle Power Plant 399 6-7 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack Heights at Rifle Power Plant 400 6-8 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Power Plant Sizes at Rifle 401 6-9 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Relocating the Rifle Power Plant From a Complex to a Flat Terrain 402 6-10 Pollutant Concentrations from a 50,000 Barrel Per Day TOSCO II Oil Shale Processing Facility At Parachute Creek 404 6-11 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack Heights at Rifle TOSCO II Plant 405 6-12 Pollutant Concentrations from a 57,000 Barrel Per Day In Situ Oil Shale Processing Facility at Rifle 406 6-13 Pollutant Concentrations from a 57,000 Barrel Per Day In Situ Oil Shale Processing Facility with Surface Retort at Rifle 407 6-14 Pollution Concentrations Due to Urban Sources at Rifle 409 6-15 Pollution Concentrations Due to Urban Sources at Grand Valley, 1990 410 6-16 Water Use in the Upper Colorado River Basin Portion of the State of Colorado 416 6-17 Water Quality and Flow Data for Rifle Vicinity 417 6-18 Water Requirements for Energy Facilities at Rifle 420 xxii ------- List of Tables (Continued) Page 6-19 Effluents from Coal and Oil Shale Conversion Processes at Rifle 423 6-20 Expected Municipal Water Requirements for Increased Population in the Rifle Region 429 6-21 Wastewater Treatment Characteristics for Towns Affected by the Rifle Scenario 431 6-22 Expected Wastewater Flows from Increased Population in the Rifle Region 432 6-23 Populations of Counties and Towns in the Rifle Vicinity 438 6-24 Employment Distribution by Industry, Garfield and Rio Blanco, 1970 439 6-25 Land-Use Regulations, Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties and Local Municipalities, 1975 440 6-26 Manpower Requirements for a 1,000 Megawatt Power Plant and Associated Mine 442 6-27 Manpower Requirements for a 50,000 Barrel Per Day TOSCO II Plant and Associated Mine 442 6-28 Manpower Requirements for a 57,000 Barrel Per Day In. Situ Oil Shale Plant and Associated Mine 443 6-29 Capital Resources Required for Construction of Facilities 444 6-30 Construction and Operation Employment for Rifle Energy Development Scenario, 1975-2000 446 6-31 Population Estimates for Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties and Grand Junction, 1975-2000 447 6-32 Projected Age-Sex Distribution for Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties, 1975-2000 450 6-33 Estimated Number of Households and School Enrollment in Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties, 1975-2000 451 6-34 School District Finance Prospects, Garfield and Rio Blanco County Districts, 1975-2000 454 6-35 Projected Income Distribution for Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties, 1975-2000 456 6-36 Projected New Capital Expenditure Required for Public Services in Garfield and Rio Blanco County Communities, 1975-2000 460 6-37 Additional Operating Expenditures for Municipal Government in Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties, 1980-2000 461 6-38 Mill Levies and Per Capita Taxes for Jurisdictions in the Rifle Area 462 6-39 Property Tax Revenues from Energy Facilities 463 6-40 Revenues from Residential and Commercial Property Taxes and Municipal Utility Fees, Selected Jurisdictions 464 6-41 New Sales Tax Revenues 465 6-42 Summary of Revenues Due to Energy Facilities 466 6-43 Selected Characteristic Species of Main Communities, Rifle Scenario 472 xxiii ------- List of Tables (Continued) Page 6-44 Land Use by Scenario Facilities 474 6-45 Land Use in Rifle Scenario Area 476 6-46 Vegetation Losses Over Time in the Rifle Scenario Area 477 6-47 Summary of Major Ecological Impacts, Ranked by Significance 486 6-48 Forecast of Population Status of Selected Species 488 7-1 Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at Gillette 494 7-2 Selected Characteristics of the Gillette Area 498 7-3 Emissions from Facilities 501 7-4 Comparison of Emissions from Power Plant with New Source Performance Standards 502 7-5 Pollution Concentrations from Power Plant/Mine Combination 505 7-6 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Emission Controls at Gillette Power Plant 507 7-7 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack Heights at Gillette Power Plant 508 7-8 Pollution Concentrations from Lurgi Gasification Plant at Gillette 509 7-9 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack Heights at Gillette Lurgi Facility 510 7-10 Pollution Concentrations from Synthane Gasification Plant/Mine Combination at Gillette 511 7-11 Pollution Concentrations from Synthoil Liquefaction Plant/Mine Combination at Gillette 513 7-12 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack Heights at Gillette Synthoil Plant 514 7-13 Pollution Concentrations from Strip Mine for Coal Rail Transport at Gillette 515 7-14 Pollution Concentrations from Strip Mine for Coal Slurry Line at Gillette 516 7-15 Pollution Concentrations from Natural Gas Production at Gillette 517 7-16 Pollution Concentrations Due to Urban Sources at Gillette 519 7-17 Legal Division of Flow: Yellowstone River Tributaries 526 7-18 Water Use and Availability for Transport for Energy Development in Gillette 527 7-19 Water Requirements for Energy Facilities at Gillette 528 7-20 Water Requirements for Reclamation 531 7-21 Storage, Flow, and Quality Data for Possible Water Diversion Points to Supply Development at Gillette 533 7-22 Alternative Water Supply Costs for Gillette 534 7-23 Effluents from Energy Conversion Facilities at Gillette 536 7-24 Expected Water Requirements for Increased Population 542 7-25 Wastewater Treatment Characteristics of Communities Affected by Energy Development at Gillette 543 7-26 Expected Wastewater Flows from Increased Population 543 xxiv ------- List of Tables (Continued) * Page 7-27 Employment Distribution by Industry for 1970 and 1975 550 7-28 Manpower Requirements for a 3,000 Megawatt Power Plant and Associated Mine 552 7-29 Manpower Requirements for a Lurgi Plant and Associated Mine 553 7-30 Manpower Requirements for a Synthane Plant and Associated Mine 553 7-31 Manpower Requirements for a Synthoil Plant and Associated Mine 554 7-32 Manpower Requirements for a Surface Coal Mine for Rail Transport or Slurry Pipeline 555 7-33 Manpower Requirements for Gas Wells 555 7-34 Manpower Requirements for a Uranium Mill and Associated Mine 556 7-35 Manpower Requirements for a Solutional Uranium Mine 556 7-36 Capital Resources Required for Construction of Facilities 557 7-37 New Employment in Energy Development in Campbell County, 1975-2000 559 7-38 Employment and Population Multipliers for Gillette Scenario Population Estimates 561 7-39 Population Estimates for Campbell County, Gillette, and Casper, 1975-2000 562 7-40 Projected Age-Sex Distributions of Campbell County, 1975-2000 564 7-41 Estimated Number of Households and School Enrollment in Campbell County, 1975-2000 566 7-42 Distribution of New Housing by Type of Dwelling 566 7-43 School District Finance Needs for Campbell County, 1975-2000 568 7-44 Projected Income Distribution for Campbell County, 1975-2000 570 7-45 Projected New Capital Expenditures Required for Public Services in Gillette, 1975-2000 573 7-46 Necessary Operating Expenditures of Gillette, 1975-2000 574 7-47 New Property Tax Revenues, Campbell County 575 7-48 Severance Taxes and Public Royalties 577 7-49 Additional Population-Related Taxes and Fees 577 7-50 New Revenue from Energy Development by Level of Government 579 7-51 Physician Needs in Campbell County, 1975-2000 580 7-52 Selected Characteristic Species of Main Communities, Gillette Scenario 588 7-53 Land Use by Scenario Facilities 590 7-54 Land Use in Gillette Scenario Area 592 7-55 Land Consumption: Gillette Scenario 593 7-56 Potential Livestock Production Foregone: Gillette Scenario 594 xxv ------- List of Tables (Continued) Page 7-57 Habitat Groups of Selected Animals Representative of the Study Area 603 7-58 Forecast of Population Status of Selected Species for the Gillette Scenario 606 7-59 Summary of Major Factors Affecting Ecological Impacts 608 8-1 Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at Colstrip 615 8-2 Selected Characteristics of the Colstrip Area 616 8-3 Emissions from Facilities 619 8-4 Comparison of Emissions from Power Plant with New Source Performance Standards 621 8-5 Pollution Concentrations from Power Plant/Mine Combination at Colstrip 623 8-6 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Emissions Controls at Colstrip Power Plant 625 8-7 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack Heights at Colstrip Power Plant 626 8-8 Pollution Concentrations from Lurgi Plant at Colstrip 627 8-9 Pollution Concentrations from Synthane Plant at Colstrip 629 8-10 Pollution Concentrations from Synthoil Plant at Colstrip 630 8-11 Pollution Concentrations Due to Urban Sources at Colstrip 632 8-12 Selected Flow Data for the Upper Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers 638 8-13 Estimated 1975 Surface Water Situation for Selected Areas in Montana 640 8-14 Selected Water Quality Parameters for Major Southeastern Rivers 641 8-15 Water Requirements for Energy Facilities at Colstrip 643 8-16 Water Requirements for Reclamation 647 8-17 Effluents from Coal Conversion Processes at Colstrip 648 8-18 Expected Water Requirements for Increased Population 652 8-19 Expected Wastewater Flows from Increased Population 653 8-20 Wastewater Treatment Characteristics for the Colstrip Scenario 654 8-21 Population of Rosebud County, Colstrip and Forsyth, 1940-1975 661 8-22 Employment Distribution in Rosebud County, 1970 662 8-23 Manpower Requirements for a 3,000 Megawatt Power Plant and Associated Mine 663 8-24 Manpower Requirements for a Lurgi Plant and Associated Mine 664 8-25 Manpower Requirements for a Synthane Plant and Associated Mine 665 8-26 Manpower Requirements for a Synthoil Plant and Associated Mine 666 8-27 Capital Resources Required for Construction of Facilities 668 xxvi ------- List of Tables (Continued) Page 8-28 Construction and Operation Employment for Colstrip Scenario, 1975-2000 669 8-29 Employment and Population Multipliers for Colstrip Scenario Population Estimates 671 8--30 Assumed Population Attraction or Capture Rates Used to Allocate Population Within Rosebud County 672 8-31 Population Estimates for Rosebud County, 1975-2000 673 8-32 Projected Age-Sex Distribution for Rosebud County, 1975-2000 675 8-33 Estimated Number of Households and School Enrollment in Rosebud County, 1975-2000 676 8-34 School Finance Conditions for Rosebud County Districts, 1975-2000 678 8-35 Projected Income Distribution for Rosebud County, 1975-2000 680 8-36 Projected Population for Billinqs Area and Miles City, 1975-2000 " 683 8-37 Projected New Capital Expenditures Required in Forsyth and Ashland, 1975-2000 684 8-38 Projected Operating Expenditures of Forsyth and Ashland, 1980-2000 685 8-39 Severance Tax Revenues from Colstrip Scenario Energy Development 687 8-40 Projected Property Valuation in Rosebud County 688 8-41 Projected Property Tax Receipts in Rosebud County 689 8-42 New State Income Tax Receipts from Energy Development 690 8-43 Distribution of New Tax Revenues from Colstrip Scenario Development 691 8-44 Consolidated Fiscal Balance, Town of Forsyth and Rosebud County, 1976-1985 692 8-45 Selected Characteristic Species of Main Communities, Colstrip Scenario 699 8-46 Land Use by Scenario Facilities 701 8-47 Land Use 703 8-48 Potential Livestock Production Foregone: Colstrip Scenario 704 8-49 Forecasts of Population Status of Selected Major Species for the Colstrip Scenario 715 8-50 Summary of Major Factors Affecting Ecological Impacts 718 9-1 Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at Beulah 725 9-2 Selected Characteristics of the Beulah Area 727 9-3 Emissions from Facilities 729 9-4 Comparison of Emissions from Power Plant with New Source Performance Standards 731 9-5 Pollution Concentrations from Power Plant/Mine Combination at Beulah 733 9-6 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Emission Controls at Beulah Power Plant 735 9-7 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack Heights at Beulah Power Plant 737 xxv ii ------- List of Tables (Continued) Page 9-8 Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Plant Sizes at Beulah Power Plant 738 9-9 Pollution Concentrations from Lurgi Plant at Beulah 739 9-10 Pollution Concentrations from Synthane Plant at Beulah 740 9-11 Pollution Concentrations Due to Urban Sources at Beulah 741 9-12 Reservoir Characteristics — Lake Sakakawea 747 9-13 Stream Flow Data in the Beulah Scenario Area 748 9-14 Consumptive Water Uses in the Western Dakotas Subbasin 749 9-15 Water Quality Data for the Beulah Scenario 750 9-16 Water Requirements for Energy Facilities at Beulah 752 9-17 Water Requirements for Reclamation 756 9-18 Effluents from Coal Conversion Processes at Beulah . 757 9-19 Expected Water Requirements for Increased Population 762 9-20 Expected Wastewater Flows from Increased Population 762 9-21 Wastewater Treatment Characteristics of Communities Affected by Beulah Scenario 763 9-22 Population, Mercer County and North Dakota, 1950-1970 769 9-23 Employment by Industry Group in Mercer County, 1970 770 9-24 Manpower Requirements for a 3,000 Megawatt Power Plant and Associated Mine 773 9-25 Manpower Requirements for a Lurgi or Synthane Plant and Associated Mine 774 9-26 Capital Resources Required for Construction of Facilities 775 9-27 Construction and Operation Employment in Beulah Energy Development Scenario, 1975-2000 777 9-28 Employment and Population Multipliers in the Beulah Scenario 778 9-29 Population Estimates for the Beulah Scenario, 1975-2000 779 9-30 Projected Age-Sex Distribution for Mercer County, 1975-2000 783 9-31 Number of Households and School Enrollment in Mercer County, 1975-2000 785 9-32 Distribution of New Housing Needs by Type of Dwelling 785 9-33 School Finance Needs for Mercer County and Bismarck- Mandan, 1975-2000 787 9-34 Projected Income Distribution for Mercer County, 1975-2000 788 9-35 Projected New Capital Expenditure Required for Public Services in Selected North Dakota Communities, 1975-2000 790 9-36 Necessary Operating Expenditures of Municipal Governments in Selected Communities, 1980-2000 791 9-37 Allocation of Taxes Levied Directly on Energy Facilities, Mercer County 795 9-38 Selected Characteristic Species of Major Beulah Scenario Biological Communities 801 xxviii ------- List of Tables (Continued) Page 9-39 Land Use by Scenario Facilities at Beulah 804 9-40 Land Use in the Beulah Scenario Area 805 9-41 Habitat Loss over Time in the Beulah Scenario Area 806 9-42 Agricultural Production Foregone 807 9-43 Forecast of Population Status of Selected Species for the Beulah Scenario 815 9-44 Summary of Major Factors Affecting Ecological Impacts 818 10-1 Selected Quarterly Average Sulfate Concentrations for 1974 823 10-2 Ground-Level Sulfate Concentrations for Power Plants 825 10-3 1953-1970 Visibility Trends in Selected Locations 829 10-4 Worst-Case Visibility Reduction at One Percent Sulfate Conversion Rate 831 10-5 Cooling Tower Salt Deposits for Site Specific Scenarios 833 10-6 Worst-Case Hydrogen Sulfide Impacts from a 100 Megawatt Geothermal Power Plant 837 10-7 Trace Elements in Selected Western Coals 839 10-8 Concentrations of Trace Elements in Selected Source Water 840 10-9 Range of Concentration of Selected Constituents in Scrubber Liquors 845 10-10 Selected Compositions of Sludge Liquors and Leachates 847 10-11 Sound Levels Required to Protect Public Health and Welfare 850 10-12 Sound Levels Permitting Speech Communication 851 10-13 Quality of Telephone Usage in the Presence of Steady-State Masking Noise 851 10-14 Representative Sound Level for Mining Noise Sources 853 10-15 Sound Levels for Construction Noise Sources 856 10-16 Representative Sound Level for Coal-Fired Power Plant Noise Sources 858 10-17 Categories of Aesthetic Impacts 860 10-18 Selected Types of Health Responses 865 10-19 Selected Residuals from Energy Development and Types of Health Effects 866 10-20 Air Pollutants and Associated Respiratory Health Effects 868 10-21 Local Scenario Sulfate Concentrations and Their Health Effects 870 10-22 Health Impacts of Sulfate Aerosol 871 10-23 Peak Nitrogen Dioxide Concentration for Scenario Locations 873 10-24 Average Biweekly Respiratory Illness Rates per 1,000 for Families According to Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide 874 10-25 Carcinogens and Their Effects 877 10-26 Radioactivity in Selected Coals 880 xxix ------- List of Tables (Continued) Page 10-27 Estimated Annual Average Airborne Radioactivity Due to Coal Combustion in 1990 and 2000 882 10-28 Estimated Individual Lung Doses in Vicinity of Page, Escalante, and Glen Canyon Due to Atmospheric Radioactivity Produced by Coal Combustion 882 10-29 Radiation Doses to Individuals Due to Inhalation in the Vicinity of a Model Mill 884 10-30 Increase in Community Populations Due to Energy Development Hypothesized for the Six Site-Specific Scenarios 891 10-31 Number of Communities Identified as Having Health Impacts as a Result of Energy Development 892 10-32 Summary of Occupational Accident Data for Typical Size Facilities 895 10-33 Safety Risks Associated with Energy Facilities Expressed per Individual 896 10-34 Injury Rates in Selected Industries, 1973 897 10-35 Annual Deaths, Injuries, and Work Days Lost for Coal-Fired Electricity Systems 898 10-36 Occupational Safety Risks in Oil and Gas Development Operations 905 10-37 Type of Accident Occurrence by Geothermal Resource 906 10-38 Summary of Safety Hazards in Oil Shale Development 908 11-1 Projection of Western Energy Resource Production Nominal Demand Case 921 11-2 Projection of Western Energy Resource Production Low Demand Case 923 11-3 Number of Facilities by State in the Low and Nominal Demand Scenarios 926 11-4 Regional Air Quality and National Standards 929 11-5 Emissions from Energy Facilities 932 11-6 Projected Emissions for the Northern Great Plains: Low Demand Scenario 934 11-7 Projected Emissions for the Northern Great Plains: Nominal Demand Scenario 935 11-8 Projected Emissions for the Rocky Mountain States: Low Demand Scenario 936 11-9 Projected Emissions for the Rocky Mountain States: Nominal Demand Scenario 937 11-10 Projected Emissions in Six Western States: Low and Nominal Demand Scenarios 938 11-11 Emissions in Selected States in 1972 941 11-12 Emission Densities for Sulfur Dioxide 942 11-13 Estimated 1974 Depletions in the Upper Colorado River Basin 955 11-14 Average Total Dissolved Solids Concentrations in Streams of the Upper Colorado Region, 1941-1972 957 11-15 Water Required for Energy Facilities in Upper Colorado River Basin for Year 2000 961 xxx ------- List of Tables (Continued) Page 11-16 Water Requirements for Population Increases in the Upper Colorado River Basin 962 11-17 Water Effluents from Energy Developments in the Upper Colorado River Basin 963 11-18 Industrial Water Demand Versus Supply for Selected River Basins 965 11-19 Flow in Major Streams in the Fort Union Coal Region of the Upper Missouri River Basin 971 11-20 Water Supply and Use in the Upper Missouri River Basin 972 11-21 Water Quality of Selected Rivers in the Fort Union Coal Area of the Upper Missouri River Basin 973 11-22 Allocation of Flows by Interstate Water Compacts for Streams Within the Fort Union Coal Region 975 11-23 Water Required for Energy Facilities in the Upper Missouri River Basin 978 11-24 Water Requirements for Population Increases in the Upper Missouri River Basin 979 11-25 Water Effluents from Energy Development in the Upper Missouri River Basin 980 11-26 Employment and Population Multipliers for Operation Phase 986 11-27 Population Increases in Western States After 1975 Due to Energy Development 987 11-28 Permanent Population Additions After 1975 for Energy Areas of Six Western States 988 11-29 Population Increases in Western States After 1975 Due to Energy Development 989 11-30 Comparison of Population Increases for Low Demand Case Energy Development with Obers Population Projections, 1980-2000 991 11-31 Changes in Annual Personal Income, Six Western States, Low Demand Case Energy Development 993 11-32 Percentage of Income Derived from Economic Sectors in the Western Region, 1972 995 11-33 Salable By-Products from Lurgi Coal Gasification 998 11-34 Local Capital Expenditure Needs for Low Demand Case Energy Development, 1975-2000 1002 11-35 Annual Additional Operating Expenditures of Local Governments in Six Western States, 1980-2000, for Low Demand Energy Development 1003 11-36 New Annual Expenditures, Capital and Operating, of State Governments, 1980-2000, Low Demand Energy Development 1004 11-37 State Mineral Severance Taxes, Property Taxes, and Energy Conversion Taxes 1006 11-38 Annual Energy Tax and Property Tax Revenues in Six Western States, 1980-2000 1007 11-39 Increased Number of Doctors Needed in Western States by Year 2000, Low Demand Case 1009 xxxi ------- List of Tables (Continued) Page 11-40 The Twenty-Five Fastest Growing Industrial Sectors in Three Time Frames: Comparison of Growth for Energy Related and Nonenergy Related Sectors 1012 11-41 Sectors with Largest Differences in Output Between Clean and Dirty Scenarios, as of 1980 1017 11-42 Industries Showing the Largest State-Level Differences in Output, Nominal Clean Versus Nominal Dirty Scenarios, 1990 1018 11-43 Demand for Skilled and Professional Personnel, Western Region, Post-1975 Facilities, Low Demand Case 1020 11-44 1985 Western Energy Demand for Operational Labor as Percentage of 1970 National Market, Low Demand Case 1022 11-45 Demand for Construction Workers, Skilled and Professional, Western Region, Low Demand Case 1024 11-46 1985 Western Energy Demand for Construction Labor as Percentage of 1970 National Market, Low Demand Case 1025 11-47 1985 Western Energy Demand for Selected Occupations in Construction, Mining, Petroleum Refining, and Electric Utilities: Low Demand Case 1026 11-48 Capital Resources Required for Construction of Facilities 1028 11-49 Cash Flow, 1976-2000, Four Major Energy Systems in Western States, Low Demand Case 1029 11-50 Values of Facilities Placed in Operation, by State, 1975-1990 and 1990-2000 1031 11-51 Investment Costs for Energy Transport, 1975-2000 1032 11-52 Investments for Western Energy Compared to National New Plant Investments 1034 11-53 New Land Requirements for Energy Facilities and Urban Land for Low Demand Case, 1980-2000 1043 11-54 Land Use by Region, Low and Nominal Demand Cases 1044 11-55 Expected Population Increases Due to Nominal Case Development in Selected States and the Eight-State Region 1046 11-56 Major Backcountry Areas Likely to Receive Increased Pressure Due to Energy Development 1047 11-57 Surface Acreage Ultimately Disturbed by Surface Coal Mining Through the Year 2000 1050 11-58 Selected Sulfur Dioxide Concentrations Which Experimentally Produced Acute Injury in Western Plant Species 1062 11-59 Summary Estimates of the Economic Characteristics of Transport Modes 1079 11-60 Western Energy Transport, Year 2000, Increase over Year 1975 1080 11-61 Nominal and Low Demand Case Input Requirements, 1975 Through 2000, for Coal and Electricity Transportation Systems 1084 11-62 Health and Safety Impacts 1086 xxxii ------- LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AC acre-f t acre-f t/yr AOG AsH3 AUM BACT bbl bbl/day bcf BIA BLM BPT Btu Btu/bbl BuRec CAA CaC03 cf s CO CO 2 dB dBA DC EDA EHV EPA ERDS ESP F FDA FERC FGD FPC FWPCA GACLA GNP gpd gpm HC H2S alternating current acre-feet acre-feet per year associations of government arsine animal units per month best available control technology barrel(s) barrel(s) per day billion cubic feet Bureau of Indian Affairs Bureau of Land Management best practicable technology British thermal unit British thermal units per barrel Bureau of Reclamation Clean Air Act calcium carbonate calcium sulfate cubic feet per second carbon monoxide carbon dioxide decibel decibel(s) A-weighted direct current Economic Development Administration extra-high voltage Environmental Protection Agency Energy Resource Development Systems electrostatic precipitator Fahrenheit Food and Drug Administration Federal Energy Regulatory Commission flue gas desulfurization Federal Power Commission Federal Water Pollution Control Act Governors' Advisory Council on Local Affairs gross national product gallons per day gallons per minute hydrocarbons hydrogen sulfide XXXlll ------- kV kWh Ibs/ton LCRB Ldn MESA mg/£ MMcfd MMgpd MMscfd MMtpy MW MWe mph NAAQS NC NH3 NH^Cl NIOSH NO N02 NOX NSPS OPEC ORV PAH pCi/g pCi/£ pH ppb ppm PSD psi psia Q Ra-226 Rn-222 SEAS S02 S&PP SRI tcf TDS TOSCO tpd tpy TSP TVA UCRB kilovolt(s) kilowatt-hour(s) pounds per ton Lower Colorado River Basin day-night equivalent sound level Mining Enforcement and Safety Administration milligrams per liter million cubic feet per day million gallons per day million standard cubic feet per day million tons per year megawatt(s) megawatt-electric miles per hour National Ambient Air Quality Standards not calculated or not considered ammonia ammonium chloride National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health nitric oxide nitrogen dioxide oxides of nitrogen New Source Performance Standards Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries off-road vehicle polyaromatic hydrocarbons picocuries per gram picocuries per liter acidity/alkalinity parts per billion parts per million prevention of significant deterioration pounds per square inch pounds per square inch atmosphere 1015 British thermal units and/or quad(s) Radium 226 Radon 222 gas Strategic Environmental Assessment System sulfur dioxide Science and Public Policy Program Stanford Research Institute trillion cubic feet total dissolved solids The Oil Shale Corporation tons per day tons per year total suspended particulates Tennessee Valley Authority Upper Colorado River Basin microgram(s) xxxiv ------- yg/m3 micrograms per cubic meter UMRB Upper Missouri River Basin Us OB uranium oxide and/or yellowcake USGS U.S. Geological Survey WPA Water Purification Associates ZDP zero discharge of pollutants xxxv ------- CONVERSION TABLE BTU CONTENT OF ENERGY FORMS Electricity: 1 kWh - 3413 Btu. Natural gas: 1 cubic foot - 1000 Btu. Petroleum: 1 barrel (bbl) - 42 gallons crude oil—1 bbl - 5.8 million Btu; distillate fuel—1 bbl - 5.8 million Btu; residual fuel --1 bbl - 6.3 million Btu; gasoline--! bbl " 5.3 million Btu; Uranium—1 pound Uj>5 - 3.6 X 101* Btu. 1 itlllcm - 10' 1 billion - 10' ) trillion - 101' 1 Quad - 10" Btu I un-gawatt - 10* Watts 1 Kilowatt - 10' Watts ENERGY raits 1 joule 1 cal 1 Btu 1 VWh joule 1 4.186 1.055 X 10' 3.6 X 10* cal 2.389 X 10"' 1 2.52 X 101 9.6 X 10! Btu 9.48 X 10~* 3.97 X 10~' 1 3.413'X 10' VWh 2.778 X 10"' 1.163 X 10"* 2.93 X 10"* 1 RATE UNITS 1 gal Ion /minute 1 acre-foot/year Cubic Meter/tear 1.9898 X 10' 1.2335 X 10J . _£sll2B_filinute 1 6.2 X 10~* Ac re-Fpet /Ypar 1.613 1 PRESSURE UNITS 1 atmosphere 1 pound/sq. Inch atmospheres 1 6.804 X 10~2 kilonrans/sauare centloeter 1.033 7.03 X 10"* pounds J>er square inch 1.469 X 101 1 N/m1, Pa 1.03 X 105 6394.76 LEKCTH UNITS 1 meter 1 yard 1 mile Meteri 1 9.14 X Hf1 1.609 X 10' Feet 3.28 3.0 5.28 X 10' Yard* 1.093 1 1.76 X 10* Miles 6.21 X 10"* K 5.68 X 10"* 1 WEIGHT UNITS 1 kilogram 1 metric ton 1 too (short) Kllogru 1 1.0 X 10' 9.072 X 101 Pound 2.2046 2.205 X 10* 2.0 X 101 Metric Too 1.0 X ID"1 1 9.078 X 10~' Ton (Short) 1.102 X 10~' 1.102 1 VOLUME UNITS 1 liter 1 acre-foot 1 Mllon (U.S.) Liters 1 1.234 X 10' 3.785 Cubic F».et 3.531 X 11~2 4.356 X 10* 1.337 X 10~l Acre-Feet 8.107 X 10"' 1 3.068 ? 10"' Gallons Z.642 X 10" ' 3.259 X 10s 1 AREA UNITS 1 square meter 1 square yard 1 acre 1 square mile Square Meters 1 8.361 X 10~l 4.047 X 10' 2.59 X 10§ Square Feat 1.076 X 10 9.0 4.35 X 10* 2.788 X 107 Square tards 1.196 1 4.84 X 10' 3.098 Acres 2.471 X 10~* 2.066 X 10~* 1 6.402 X 102 Square Miles 3.86 X 10~' 3.228 X 10"' 1.562 X 10"' 1 stm pst cal - atmospheres » pounds per square Inrh - calorie N/.1. Btu - kWh - Pa - Newton per British thermal kilowatt hour square Meter, Pascal units XXXVI ------- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The research reported here could not have been completed without the assistance of a dedicated administrative support staff. Members of the staff are an integral part of the inter- disciplinary team approach employed by the Science and Public Policy Program. This staff is headed by Janice Whinery, Assis- tant to the Director, and Nancy Heinicke, Clerical Supervisor. Staff members are: Ellen Ladd, Cyndy Allison, Patti Mershon, Brenda Skaggs, Pam Odell, Judy Williams, and Julia Leonard. Sharon Pursel assisted as Clerical Supervisor in the production of the draft policy analysis report. The research support staff is headed by Martha Jordan, Li- brarian. Research Team Assistants are David Sage, Mary Sutton, and Diane Dean. Lorna Caraway and Phil Kabrich assisted as Re- search Team Assistants in the final production of the report. Nancy Ballard, graphics arts consultant, designed the title page. Steven E. Plotkin, EPA Project Officer, and Terry Thoem, EPA, Denver, have provided continuing support and assistance in the preparation of this report. An Advisory Committee and numerous individuals, corporations, government agencies, and public interest groups have assisted the team at various stages in the preparation of the report. The names of the members of the Advisory Committee are listed below. Others who have assisted are far too numerous to list here. Needless to say, no member of the Advisory Committee, consultant, or any other individual or agency is responsible for the content of this progress report. The report is the sole responsibility of the Science and Public Policy interdisciplinary research team conducting this study. Mr. John Bermingham Dr. Thadis W. Box Attorney Dean Denver, Colorado College of Environmental (formerly Regional Represen- Studies tative for the secretary, U.S. Utah State University Department of Commerce) Logan, Utah xxxvn ------- Governor Jack Campbell President Federation of Rocky Mountain States Denver, Colorado Mr. Bill Conine Environmentalist Energy Minerals—U.S. and Canada Mobil Oil Corporation Denver, Colorado Ms. Sharon Eads Attorney Native American Rights Fund Boulder, Colorado Mr. Michael B. Enzi Mayor Gillette, Wyoming Mr. Lionel S. Johns Program Manager Office of Technology Assessment U.S. Congress Washington, D.C. Mr. Kenneth Kauffman Chairman Water for Energy Management Team U.S. Department of the Interior Engineering and Research Center Denver, Colorado Mr. S.P. Mathur Division of Regional Assessment U.S. Department of Energy Washington, D.C. (formerly ERDA Representative to the Water Resources Council) Mr. Leonard Meeker Attorney Center for Law and Social Policies Washington, D.C. Dr. Richard Meyer ABT Associates Anglewood, Colorado (formerly Acting Director, Western Governors' Energy Policy Office) Dr. Raphael Moure Industrial Hygienist Oil, Chemical, and Atomic Workers Union Denver, Colorado Mr. Bruce Pasternack Booz, Allen, Hamilton Bethesda, Maryland (formerly Assistant Admini- strator, Policy and Program Evaluation, Federal Energy Administration, Washington, D.C.) Mr. Robert Richards Kaiser Engineers Oakland, California Mr. H. Anthony Ruckel Regional Lawyer Sierra Club Legal Defense Fund Denver, Colorado Mr. Warren Schmechel President and Chief Operating Officer Western Energy Company Butte, Montana Mr. Vernon Valantine Colorado River Board of California Los Angeles, California xxxv in ------- Three subcontractors contributed to the impact analyses and background studies used in this report: Radian Corporation, Austin, Texas; Water Purification Associates, Cambridge, Massa- chusetts; and the Western Governors' Policy Office, Denver, Colorado. Others who have contributed to specific analyses include: Mr. Donald S. Cooper Principal Energy Analyst International Research and Technology Corporation McLean, Virginia Dr. James M. Goodman Associate Professor of Geography University of Oklahoma Dr. Arnold G. Henderson Professor of Architecture University of Oklahoma Dr. Daniel B. Kohlhepp Assistant Professor of Finance University of Oklahoma Mr. Richard Meyer Program Manager International Research and Technology Corporation McLean, Virginia XXXIX ------- PART II: SITE-SPECIFIC AND REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSES II.I INTRODUCTION This part of the report presents results of our analysis of the impacts likely to occur when western energy resources are de- veloped. Chapters 4-9 report the results of site-specific impact analyses. Knowledge concerning some local impacts is so limited that they cannot be analyzed for each site; and some local impacts do not vary significantly on the basis of site-specific differ- ences. These localized impacts are discussed in Chapter 10.1 Regional impact analysis results are reported in Chapter 11. The site-specific impacts analyzed in Chapters 4-9 are di- vided into four major categories: air; water; social and economic; and ecological. These and a transportation impact category are included in the regional impacts analyzed in Chapter 11. The meth- ods and assumptions used in each of the four major categories are briefly described below. LI.2 IMPACT ANALYSIS METHODS2 II.2.1 Air Impact Analysis Gaussian dispersion models were used to determine the ambi- ent air impact of air emissions.3 These models incorporate lrrhey include some air quality impact categories (e.g., cool- ing tower salt deposition and fugitive dust), trace elements, solid waste treatment and disposal, noise, aesthetics, and health effects (both public health and occupational health and safety). 2A more detailed description of the methods used in the anal- ysis of impacts can be found in White, Irvin L., et al. First Year Work Plan for a Technology Assessment of Western Energy Re- source Development. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Pro- tection Agency, 1976. More detailed assumptions are introduced in Chapters 4-9. 3For a description of the dispersion model, see White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: A Progress Report of a Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource Development. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977, Appendix A. 160 ------- modifications to measure impacts in rough terrain. When modeled results were compared with measured air quality data taken in the vicinity of the Navajo power plant near Page, Arizona, they were found to be accurate to within i50 percent. The air emissions modeled in this study originate from three types of sources: plants, mines, and urban populations. Emissions data for mines and facilities are from the Energy From the. West: Energy Resource Development Systems (ERDS) Report prepared to codify baseline data for the project.1 Urban emission rates were obtained by averaging per capita emissions for: Salt Lake City, Utah; Denver, Colorado; Albuquerque, New Mexico; Santa Fe, New Mexico; Phoenix, Arizona; Billings, Montana; Casper, Wyoming; and Rapid City, South Dakota.2 The dispersion modeling of the three types of emissions sources were each performed somewhat differently. Plants were modeled as a combination of elevated sources (stacks) and ground- level sources (fugitive emissions), and the mines and urban areas were modeled as ground-level sources. Since the dispersion condi- tions that create high concentrations from elevated sources are different from those that create high concentrations from ground- level sources, several different dispersion conditions were inves- tigated for both types of sources at the plants and mines: • Short-Term (3 hours or less) Average Concentrations. Conditions producing plume looping, terrain impaction, and limited vertical mixing were modeled to determine the peak concentrations from elevated sources; and, ground-based inversions and low wind speeds typical of stagnation conditions were modeled for ground-level sources. • Intermediate-Term (3-24 hours) Average Concentrations. Realistic sequences of meteorological conditions were modeled that included the short-term dispersion condi- tions which produced the highest concentrations. The averaging time period was divided into an integral number of shorter term intervals with specific plant emissions and meteorological conditions which were assumed constant within a time interval but which could change from interval to interval. The short- term model was used to compute the concentrations at particular receptors, and the final concentration for xWhite, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West; Energy Re- source Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Envi- ronmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. 2Data for smaller cities with populations comparable to those found in the eight-state study area were not available. 161 ------- the desired averaging time was computed by averaging contributions from the individual time increments. • Annual Average Concentrations. Concentrations, predicted using National Weather Service statistical data, were computed for a grid of receptors based on the frequency of occurrence of different sets of meteorological conditions. The highest ground-level concentrations and averaging time for each pollutant were selected from these cases and are reported as "peak" values. Also computed for each facility were more typ- ical concentrations that would be expected to occur downwind of the plant. Sensitivity analyses were carried out on stack height, sulfur dioxide (SO2) scrubber and electrostatic precipitator efficiencies, terrain characteristics, and plant size for the elevated sources by calculating dispersion and reporting ambient concentrations for different values of each of these variables. The urban areas were modeled on an annual average basis using statistical meteorological data.1 The peak concentrations for the shorter term averages were computed using Larsen's statistics.2 Projections of emissions from power plants were based on sev- eral assumptions about the characteristics of the coal to be used in each scenario. Table II-l summarizes the sulfur and British thermal unit (Btu) content of the coal and S02 emission rates for each scenario. These data indicate that the coal found in the vi- cinity of each scenario varies with respect to sulfur and Btu con- tent. Coal of average sulfur and Btu content was selected for use in each scenario. Emission rates also depend on the amount of sul- fur retained in the ash, as indicated in Table II-l. For the sce- narios analyzed, the emission factors were based on the assumption that none of the sulfur was retained in the ash. II.2.2 Water Impact Analysis Descriptions of the availability and quality of surface water and groundwater at each of the six sites and in the eight-state ^.S., Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmos- pheric Administration, Environmental Data Service. Wind Distri- bution by Pasquill Stability Classes, Star Program. Ashville, N.C.: National Climatic Center, 1975. 2Larsen, Ralph I. A Mathematical Model Relating Air Quality Measurements to Air Quality Standards, Number AP-89. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Pro- grams, November 1971. 162 ------- CA O § u CA U H fe H P M 04 W H CO o § CO o 8 £ u ^ g § tn 00 H U o w 5NTENT U 3 4J CQ H Z u E-< § U K D Cx J D 3 4J CQ C •H •— i •— 1 •H l-l (1) a N O U) U-l 0 (pounds •o 0 a M £ 3 4-1 CQ 4J x; tn •H 41 > >i JJ c O M ^ rH in CN m m o ro cr. r~ o 00 in CO r^ Cfi o V£> 0 00 r^ Farmington 01 CO rH r^ 0 rH "» rH rH 1 0 ro 00 o rH O IN CN (H rH VO r— 0 1 -* o 0 m \|Riflee o in i-i o fN rH O rr in 00 1 o r CN r~ o 00 trv r^ \D ffl 0 1 oo 0 CN VO 1 e Gillette o 00 rH "9" • 0 r~- 00 00 CO 00 r-l 1 m 0 0 00 1 e Colstrip o r~ i— i vi> ro rH O CO fN r- I o ro 00 ^o O r- 0 r— 00 rH rH 1 •T O o s> \ Beulah6 T) QJ c in M O 41 M 4) p, in 3 4J o 18 u-i in M O rH IB CK 3 4) M tn BS M rH 1 X! rH rH tO rH r-l Q< (0 IB IB Q< M 4-1 10 C 4) C •rl C 4) in 4) E 4) C Cn C MO O 3 -H in M Cn 4-> -H -H •H C > UH o tn c 4-1 rH H 3 4) rd 4J MO i-H CQ O 10 M C 3 C -H . UH M tn • 1C X ON r-H h. 4-> C 4) E 4) Cn 10 c IB £ T3 C 10 >< rH 4) rH 3 4-1 U-l C in tn • o O 0) 4-1 C 3 C 3 4) >i -H 0) 10 T3 4-1 U-l E 4) •H C W O 4) M X 3 C Cn 3 0 O O C id CQ •rl U -rl 0 C •O 4J -H IB O IB -P S •• MO -H tn x! 3 C M 3 13 13 M-l 18 10 A C 4-1 rH r-l > E • IB 3 3 CQ O 4) J tn in o rH O 4J JQ MH >, II -H O 4) IB 0 4-> K 4) x; -H -ri <^ rH 4J M 3 U O M U-i CO IB U5 O 01 C > 4> 01 UH M -H M J£ in 3 IB •O 0) C -H 03 i-3 4) rH 0 4-> .Q -H C ~ 4J IB 18 4J 0 M rH rH 4J C -H O 10 3 4) 4J -H crj o in 4-1 c M i-H -iH 01 0! 4> IB Xi M 4-1 -P • o 4-> 41 c in 4-1 M M H rH •H tn c 3 o C -H .H U-l U-l 01 > 3 ^H o x; 4) C 3 4-1 vo rH r-l 0 tn 4-1 IB UH -H C UH - £ -ri in 3 0 4-i MBi in • o O 41 • -rl IM £ 4-1 4) x; MO) eons e -i-i 4-1 o in 4) in 41 o UH 3 4) E M xi UH E x; 4-1 ix tn 4J M O M 4-1 M •H e o o IB in 4-1 41U-I (UU-J4J 114-1 •H 4-1 en 3 41 -H M c -a C4->j3 as CC O 41 10 O O fj 4-1 M C - M II O in • IB 3 41 41 tn rH cn a 3 4J rH Xi 4) 10 • -H 4-1 CQ4) EHOO 3rd CQ a in .a TJ o UK £. O 1 l-l •H rH 10 c -H fi, 1 •H U-l •rl tn ^ 4-1 c 3 0 u c 10 3 t-) c Ifl tn h . 0 c H rH rd C 0 •H IB C • M C 4) O 4J •H C 4J H CO E xi Ifl 10 rH 4-> O D OS >-( r) UH 0 4) C 3 -H ra S 41 M 0 3 -r-v CQ Id £> - Id M Z O •H UH M O 0) •P C C O M -H in 01 C Xi 10 •p a ^ UH M O T3 •P C c ra 4) e 4-1 4-> O M 4) IB T-V a o 4) M Q a, " C • o tn -H •3 (0 13 O .— 1 •H 4J £3 h. in u •H 4-1 in • H M 41 4J 0 \|>P 18 r- M r^ id rH Xi U C rH 0 IB H O 4J CJ Ifl £. C a M pH 0) O 4-1 o) tn a; o) S UH 0 M 3 3 UH Ifl rH 4) 3 IH tn 3 1 CO 3 ,j • Xi UH 10 O 4-1 3 C O - -iH >i -P 4J IB •rl 3 CJ rH Ifl 0) > X U Ifl 4) tn 4) ¥i 0 4-1 c id I/I c 0 E • ' 0 r4 XI o J m • r- •P >, I r-H T3 CM 10 C ^X W IB 0 to in • 1 in S «£ rH • C^4 0 U W J> 'D "• CM e 41 ffl O c •p ~ 4) C X -rt 41 4) IJ B in 4) 41 3 a, 18 &] 4J 1/2 ID d • 0 4J W -rl 0 4J 10 IB a • 3 e w xi H • e EH 0 rH CJ Ifl •P -X tf C 4) C 4) O ifl E -H c c - 0 4J C M MO • r4 ^ .^1 > 4-1 4-1 Ei U ifl £) 4J N • in i — r^ rH * C 0 •H 4J 10 M O a M 0 u 163 ------- study area are based on secondary sources. Data on the water re- quirements for energy facilities are taken from two sources: the ERDS Report,1 and Water Purification Associates' (WPA) Water Re- quirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States.2 The ERDS Report's descrip- tions of water requirements are based on a variety of secondary sources and represent likely average water use. The WPA estimates are site-specific and are the minimum water requirements within the constraint of the economic cost of water. In other words, WPA's estimates are for the process design that would minimize water to the point where minimizing water use would increase eco- nomic cost, although it might be technologically feasible to re- duce water requirements even further. The WPA report should be consulted for a description of how estimates were calculated. Data on the consumptive use of water by energy-related popula- tion increases are based on actual per capita consumption rates in communities included in the six site-specific scenarios. For the eight-state regional scenario, a rate of 150 gallons per capita per day is used. Localized impacts on water availability were identified by relating the consumptive use of water to local surface and ground- water availability. Basin-wide impacts on water availability were identified by relating total water requirements for facilities and population to total instream flows and current withdrawals. The local water quality impacts of energy development were identified by relating development activities, such as construction and mining, to the local conditions. The land and aquifer distur- bances, changes in runoff, and effluents resulting from these activities were analyzed. Water availability analyses were conducted both at local and regional levels. Water quality changes were addressed mainly with respect to local sites, but some emphasis was placed on regional problems as well. The data necessary to evaluate the effects of specific facilities under various hydrologic conditions are being generated by a number of research projects currently underway. 1 See White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report"! Washington, D.C . : U.S . , En- vironmental Protection Agency,forthcoming. 2Gold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States.Washington,D.C.:U.S.,Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. 164 ------- II.2.3 Social and Economic Analyses A. Population, Schools, and Housing Population impacts resulting from energy developments were estimated using the economic base or export-base model.- This model distinguishes between export-oriented or basic employment and local service-related or nonbasic employment.1 The driving assumption for regional impact analysis is that basic employment is the im- petus for growth, to which the regional economy responds. This response takes the form of additional employment in the nonbasic sector and is known as the multiplier effect. In this study, employment multiplier values were chosen from studies of each site-specific locality, and population multipliers were derived from empirical results in the West,2 discounting for working spouses (especially in service jobs). Populations were distributed in each local region, taking major local trade centers into account. Both housing and school enrollment impacts were derived from local age-sex distributions. The 1970 age-sex structure was pro- jected by aging surviving cohorts and adding newly arrived em- ployees and their families, generally conforming to the age struc- tures reported in the Construction Worker Profile.3 Housing de- mand was assumed to approximate the number of males ages 20 and over in the local population. This is an aggregate approach which is intended to balance male dependents and single female households, School enrollment estimates assume that the 6-13 age group is ele- mentary school age and the 14-16 age group is secondary school age. These result in enrollment underestimates of up to 20 percent in some cases but reflect the relative sizes expected fairly closely. B. Materials and Equipment The demand for industrial output for western energy develop- ment was examined only at the regional level using the Strategic 1 An alternative for economic base analysis is to focus on in- come, thereby defining the basic sector as that which brings income into the community. The definition of sectors is more difficult when income is used but provides a better framework for regions where nonwage income is important (e.g., retirement communities). For a comprehensive presentation of the model, see Tiebout, Charles M. The Community Economic Base Study. New York, N.Y.: Committee for Economic Development, 1962. 2Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission,1976. 3Ibid. 165 ------- Environmental Assessment System (SEAS).1 The SEAS is an input- output model of the national economy. Three runs were performed and compared: • A "Nominal Dirty" case which closely parallels the Nominal Development case of the Stanford Research Institute (SRI) model. One major exception was a higher level of oil shale development: 4.2 million barrels/day by 2000 rather than 2.5 million; • A "Nominal Clean" case with the same scale of energy development but more strict environmental controls; • A "Low Growth" case with the "dirty" or lax environ- mental control assumptions but a slower rate of western energy development than in the Nominal cases. The sector-by-sector2 comparison of Nominal Dirty and Low Growth indicates which industries' rates of output are most sensi- tive to varying levels of western energy development. Comparison of Nominal Dirty and Nominal Clean indicates which industries will be most involved in producing pollution control materials and equipment. Moreover, this latter comparison also provides, via SEAS Residuals Generation module, independent estimates of quan- tities of pollutants on a regional basis, for comparison with fig- ures derived by the Science and Public Policy (S&PP) study team. C. Financial Resources For the site-specific analyses, fiscal impacts were examined by combining data on the sources of revenue with data on projected capital and operating expenditures at the city and county level. Sources of revenue included those associated with the energy fa- cilities and the increased population. Tax rates and the kind of applicable taxes varied by site in accordance with state and local policy, but in general, the taxes considered included a property tax, sales tax, severance tax, energy conversion tax, and royalty payments on federally owned energy resources. Capital expenditures were projected for schools and sewage and water utilities using the population projections. Both revenues and expenditures were pro- jected as a function of time in accordance with the timing of en- ergy development and population increases to obtain projections of , Richard H., Project Officer. A Description of the SEAS Model. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, October 1977. 2 SEAS divides the economy into 185 sectors. 166 ------- deficits and surpluses. Bechtel's Energy Planning Model1 was the source of the capital cost data for energy facilities; these capi- tal cost data were used to estimate the property tax revenue gen- erated by the energy facilities. For the regional analysis, the same capital cost data were used in conjunction with the number of plants projected to come on-line each year in order to obtain the total investment costs for all plants for each year. In calculating return cash flow, it was assumed that each facility would return its investment2 over a 30-year period at a 10 percent real discount ratio. Depre- ciation plus one-fourth of net income was assumed available to the firm for further investment, and that constituted the "return cash flow." II. 2.4 Ecological Methodology As the first step in analyzing the ecological impacts of each scenario, a detailed characterization of the existing ecosystem was prepared. The background information gathered for the sce- narios included: identifying presently operating limiting factors (e.g., rainfall, winter storms, etc.); identifying major natural or manmade stresses (e.g., periodic drought, sagebrush eradication, grazing); obtaining assessments of recent population trends for selected species of wildlife and relating them to known stresses (e.g., declining sharptail grouse populations because of habitat destruction by farming); mapping vegetation types throughout the scenario area; and mapping critical habitat for game and nongame species for which information is available (e.g., critical winter- ing areas, breeding, or mating display areas). Analyzing the impacts of energy development on this dynamic baseline involved interpreting the direct and indirect effects on the availability and quality of habitat of the impacts found in the air, water, and social and economic analyses. This, in turn, required a general analysis of secondary changes in land-use pat- terns brought about by increasing populations. Specifically, areas likely to receive heavy pressure from backcountry recreationists (hikers, campers, fishermen, etc.) and from offroad vehicle use were identified, as well as areas vulnerable to strip development, recreational or second-home developments, and siting of new roads and highways. These land-use projections were based largely on input from responsible planning agencies, interpreted in the light of recent trends and values. In some scenarios, Changes in LCarasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols. San Francisco, Calif.:Bechtel Corporation, 1975. These data were converted to 1975 dollars. 2Including allowances for funds during construction which were not included in total capital requirements. 167 ------- forestry practice and expansion of cropland, concurrent with but independent of energy development, are taken into consideration as they can substantially affect both terrestrial and aquatic com- munities. Working maps of forecast land-use changes were prepared to aid in evaluating the cumulative impact of energy-related stresses superimposed on other changes taking place within the same time period. In preparing the assessments presented in the following chap- ters, all factors were quantified within reasonable limits. Sce- nario land requirements and secondary land-use changes were inter- preted in terms of the relative amounts of affected habitat avail- able in the scenario, and the location of areas were mapped as critical habitats. Impacts on livestock grazing were calculated on the basis of available estimates of range capacity. With- drawals of water from rivers and streams were compared with re- corded flows, although in no case were data appropriate to quan- tifying critical flow needs available. SO2 ground-level concen- trations were compared with published data on the sensitivity of affected plant species. However, the final conclusions as to the meaning of these impacts in conjunction with less quantifiable effects were based on technical judgment and the opinion of active professionals in the field. Finally, the cumulative ecological impact of each scenario was summarized in terms of expected population trends for selected wild- life and fish species. Species evaluated included those of eco- nomic or recreational importance, rare or threatened species, and indicators of ecological change. An apparent bias throughout the scenarios toward game animals results not from an intent on the part of the investigators but because there frequently was insuf- ficient information to do more than generalize about nongame forms. II.3 INTERACTIONS AMONG CATEGORIES OF IMPACTS Although separated for purposes of analysis, impact categories obviously interact with and thus affect one another. For example, population increases may generate increased air emissions, which in turn may affect health and the delivery of health services. When appropriate, the analyses reported in the following chapters attempt to take these interactive relationships into account by introducing an impact from one category into the analysis of an- other category of impacts. A final section in each of the follow- ing chapters summarizes impacts and identifies the technological and locational factors which can cause significant variations in impacts. 168 ------- CHAPTER 4 THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE AREA 4.1 INTRODUCTION The Kaiparowits/Escalante area of southern Utah is shown in Figure 4-1. Hypothetical energy resource development proposed in this area (Kane and Garfield counties) includes underground coal mining, mine-mouth electrical power generation, and export of electrical power via extra-high voltage (EHV) transmission lines to Arizona, California, and elsewhere in Utah.1 The location of these facilities is shown in Figure 4-2. The impacts of two 3,000 megawatt-electric (MWe) generating plants, one located near Escalante and one near Kaiparowits, and of the associated coal mines are evaluated separately; and a sce- nario which calls for construction of both facilities is analyzed. In the scenario, construction of the first 3,000 MWe generating plant began during 1975. The first plant will come on-line in 1983 and the second in 1987. Development of the coal mines to supply these plants began in 1976, and full production is sched- uled for 1987. Details on Kaiparowits/Escalante coal, technolog- ical alternatives, and the scenario development schedule are sum- marized in Table 4-1. In all four impact sections of this chap- ter (air, water, social and economic, and ecological), the factors that produce impacts are identified and discussed for each mine and power plant. In the air and water sections, impacts caused by those factors are discussed for each mine-power plant combina- tion and for the scenario which includes both mines and power plants constructed according to the scenario schedule. In the social and economic and ecological sections, only the impacts of the scenario are discussed. This distinction is made because so- cial, economic, and ecological effects are, for the most part, 1While this hypothetical development closely parallels facil- ities proposed by Southern California Edison, San Diego Gas and Electric, and Arizona Public Service (now cancelled) and the Inter- mountain Power Project in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area, it must be stressed that the development identified here is hypothetical. As with the others, this scenario was used to structure the assess- ment of a particular combination of technologies and existing conditions. 169 ------- Topography, in feet Above 9000 A Towns 7000-9000 5000-7000 4000-5000 3000-4000 FIGURE 4-1: KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE AREA OF SOUTHERN UTAH 170 ------- FIGURE 4-2: THE LOCATION OF HYPOTHESIZED ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES IN THE KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE AREA 171 ------- CO w O CO CO u H H CO H OH U EH U < EC u c C C 4 U ( 0 I (. • r r- f- •f in J 4) •• O l-l r 3 o in c 41 Xi l-l -x in 3 4J (0 Of Of <> » <> in • o » o 01 o o H ^ ^ 0 0 rH V\| 01 4J 4J 4J e C rO O 4) £ X! 4J j_, C 41 41 IB 0 VlrH U U 3-H VI 4J 4J -a 3 4-> 01 (0 0) >4H « ID -H H X JB i-l (0 S £ > (u < CO 0 u -v O 00 o •» 3 J -t in U 4) i] U : 4) D in H in 01 -i a) a H 0 H Vl T3 a 3 ai - o > in o H 4) Vi 0 tt Pu D J 0 £j s"J £ * s H-l U ^I a z o H EH £ O U W SI CO ^H EH t-H i-5 U fa in c 0) C •H -r tT>4 O ! i— 1 r 0 1 c - 0 6 01 EH in in in in in in in 4J 4J 4-1 4J 4-1 4J 4J •H -H -H -H 0) 01 4) 01 -H -H -rl 4) 4) 4) oooocccc oooccc MVllHMIOrOlOIB IH Vl iH IB ITJ IB IBlBIBlBrHrHi— li-H (0 IB IB i— 1 i— \| rH QjQjOjQjIBlBfOtO Qj 0j QJ 10 10 (0 •H -H -H -H O O O O -H -H -H O U O cBiBiBtoinoiinin to ro 10 in tn in b£bMr¥4^H[i3Li3UH fail^&^WWW Oi— ifNn^inv^r oc'jro^'^r^ coooooooooooooco oocooooooooo OCACTNC^CACftCACA OfflCTtCACftC^ rHi— li— li— It— liHrHi— 1 I— 1 i— 1 I— 1 fH I— 1 I— i >i>i>i>i>i>i>i>i 4)4)4)4)4)4) QjQjOjQ^CUC^OiOj ^^?^^\|£ 4J4JJJU4J4J4J4J EESEES EEEEEEEE EESSESSE oooooo in in o in in o VOVOINODVDVDCNCO r-r-ini-r~in r-li-in«S'i-lr-im'* i-l iH 4) >i T3 CO C J3 -H C * IB O J2 0) 4J O in 1 IB )-t -H C 00 » t-l "OraC 4)304)014) C3O 4->-H-H»H3 !3rH inO)<H-HMja4J E C i— i 4-)SQ)-iOtQ O'H-H ££^4-13^ O4-)£ IB4-l4)(B^C MC r-tOC-PU-H Ov^ pH LO nl dP -i-i tn i— i 3 0i ^ QJ l^ O C O O CH QJ rt 5 3 t"3 X3 QJ O IH -H O 4) OO>4JV\|4-I4J Vl 3 T3 S 0) IB 4)01-1 41'WM-IOEH 'OMM41 SOOTD-H-HIO CQJC^Q^ E 4)4-r-ii 3 C tr> in a IB -d :cE4Jtj co-HO-Hinco DO) (0 O04J4J3O01H MOiMino) -H-tniBCrti-rtO JVlrHOlin U 014) O-H J3i— ICC 41OCCrO4)W4J HOH-rlO ^3O01Ci— IU-10) JLi^CuE4-) CEnOCT1IB4)4)? < 0 3 U in 01 4-> 4J •HO) -HO) 3 4J S 4-> 0 C 0 C IH (0 i-i fO (0 r-l 10 rH Qi IB £X (0 •HO -HO to in IB in ^ U b£ U 0 TT 0 «T CO 00 00 00 CA CT^ O^ CA r-l r-t l-l iH J> £» •X .V! in in ID VD r^ r- XI ^- 4) o in s 10 IH E 4) O >i O o 01 o 4J > O c 01 O m 0) O c x; •H C O E -H 10 10 4) E E no o M-J 3 M-l 4J— tn rH 4) 4) 4-1 C e xi c -H O ro >,^-i •H 1-1 r-t 4J 4-1 o a, -H > IB >i OK 4-> 0) l-l -H [d 4J M > 0) l-l C O C S 4J O ar-i o o o s r-i m 10 u a o) EH a CO r-l 10 U W IH EH 5 rH O r; En •H X! 4J 1 H iB 0 IH t> 4J O X r-l 01 -H X II II SB > T3 § O IH 4) a 01 -U •H C IH 3 10 0) rH >, IB S M M 4) O 41 a -H Xi IH 4-1 Ul 4-1 e o XI O 4) in 4-1 I-H -H 0) 4-1 C 1 •H O 4J IH -H 4J 03 i-H IB rH S II -H ro XI 0) rH II E X. in >i li - a 3 4J 0) -u E 2 CQ £ E rH 10 4J C 4) E C O M •H ^> C w 4J MH 10 l-l a ±] c 4) E 01 CT> IB C IB £ •a c IB iJ U-l O 3 IB 4) ^ 3 ffl ^ IH 0 IH 0) C M 0) XI 4J UH O ^J c 01 E 4-1 Vl IB a 0) a «. * CO » £3 CD UH O 3 IB 4) IH 3 a »• XI IB 4J D - 4? U 01 ^ 10 »J 4J iH IB CO * in rH o £> in * 4J O 4) •n O M CU in 4-> •H ^ o M IB a •H • tO in &C i- CA i-H • 4-1 * C 4J 4) e E 4) 0) E 4J 4) 10 CT1 4J IB CO C fO •U £ 0 10 T3 Q4 C E IB HH j 172 ------- higher order impacts. Consequently, facility by facility impact discussions would have been repetitive in nearly every respect. The Kaiparowits/Escalante area is generally characterized by a low population density, low average income, majority affiliation with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormon), and a predominant sentiment in favor of developing the area's re- sources.1 The physical environment is characterized by limited seasonal precipitation, a topography which changes from bench- lands in the South to mountains in the North, and vegetation which changes from desert shrubs in the South to pinyon-juniper woodlands and coniferous forests at higher elevations in the North. A major influence on the area's economy has been the exten- sive federal ownership of land, particularly of recreation- oriented lands such as national parks.2 During the summer there are frequently many more tourists in the area than permanent residents. As a result, the major sectors of economic activity are government, wholesale and retail trade, and services. Ranching is the major agricultural activity. Industrial development has been very limited.3 Groundwater and surface water are available in the area, the latter primarily from the Colorado River and Lake Powell. Air quality in the area is excellent, the major present pollutant being blowing dust. Descriptive characteristics of the area are summarized in Table 4-2. Elaborations of these characteristics will be intro- duced as they are required to explain the impact analyses reported in this chapter. for example Myhra, David. "Fossil Projects Need Siting Help Too." Public Utilities Fortnightly, Vol. 99 (September 29, 1977), pp. 24-28. 2These include Bryce Canyon, Zion, Canyonlands, and Capitol Reef National Parks, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, and Dixie and Kaibab National Forests. 3U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Local Area Personal Income." Survey of Current Business, Vol. 54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75. 173 ------- TABLE 4-2: SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF THE KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE AREA Environment Elevation Precipitation Air Stability Vegetation 4,000-7,000 feet 6-10 inches annually in the south 20 inches annually in the north Frequently prolonged winter stagnation Salt desert shrub in the south; pinyon pine-juniper in the north Social and Economic Land Ownership Federal State City and County Private Population Density Unemployment Kane County Garfield County Income 87 % 8 % = .01% 5 % 0.7 per square mile 7 % 15 % $2,900 per capita annual - - approximately a!970 data, Garfield and Kane Counties. b!974 data. 4.2 AIR IMPACTS1 4.2.1 Existing Conditions A. Background Pollutants Air quality in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area is currently affected by the Navajo power plant located near Page, Arizona (Figure 4-1) . Measurements of concentrations of criteria federal standards referred to in this section are those promulgated prior to the revisions mandated by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685. 174 ------- pollutants,1 (shown in Table 4-3) taken prior to 1975 indicated nitrogen dioxide (NOa) and sulfur dioxide (S02) below detection thresholds of the monitoring equipment.2 However, 24-hour parti- culate concentrations, ranging from 1 to 543 micrograms per cubic meter (ug/m3), violate federal ambient standards during high winds due to blowing dust. Based on measurements taken at Page, Arizona, from 1970 to 1974, the annual average background levels chosen as inputs into the air dispersion model are: particulates, 20; S02/ 10; N02, 4; oxidants (ozone), 60.4 B. Meteorological Conditions The terrain in the Kaiparowits plateau area of southern Utah is topographically complex. Mesas, plateaus, mountains, hills, canyons, and basins complicate air flow and pollutant dispersion. This terrain can contribute to pollution concentrations which ap- proach ambient standards from both elevated and ground-level emis- sion sources.5 Highest concentrations will occur when a plume 1 Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air qual- ity standards are in force: carbon monoxide (CO), nonmethane hydrocarbons (HC), oxides of nitrogen, oxidants, particulates, and SOa• Although technically only nonmethane HC are covered by the standards, the more inclusive term "hydrocarbons" is generally used. 2Dames and Moore. Air Quality Monitoring and Meteorology, Navajo Generating Station--1974, Status Report, March 15, 1975, as cited in U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Manage- ment. Final Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976; and Walther, E.G., et al. Air Quality in the Lake Powell Region, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin No. 3. Los Angeles, Calif.: University of California, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 1974. 3BLM. FEIS: Kaiparowits. "These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's best professional judgment. They are used as the best estimate of the concentrations to be expected at any particular time. Measure- ments of HC and CO are unknown. But high background levels of HC have been measured at other rural locations in the West and may occur here. Background CO levels are assumed to be relatively low. 5Elevated sources are tall stacks that emit pollutants several hundred feet above ground. Ground-level sources include towns, strip mines, and tank farms that emit pollutants close to ground level. 175 ------- TABLE 4-3: AIR QUALITY MEASUREMENTS AT PAGE, ARIZONA (micrograms per cubic meter) POLLUTANT AVERAGING TIME Particulate Annual 24-hourd S02 Annual 24-hourd 3-hourd NO 2 Annual Oxidants l-hourd YEAR 1972 1973 1974 LEVEL DAMES & MOOREb 29 27 28 ARIZONA0 31 52 46 Ranged from less than 1 to 543 yg/m3 . High concentrations primarily due to soil dust.3 1973 1974 1970 to 1974 1973 1974 1973 1974 1973 1974 1972 NA NA 26 NA NA 39 68 NA NA 84 1 8 NA 11 22 NA NA 10 24 NA AMBIENT STANDARDS3 PRIMARY 75 260 80 365 NA 100 160 SECONDARY 60 150 NA NA 1,300 100 160 ug/ra' = micrograms per cubic meter SO? = sulfur dioxide NA = not available or applicable NO2 = nitrogen dioxide aThe Ambient Standards listed are the most stringent of either federal or state. For Utah, no state ambient air quality standards are more stringent than the federal ones. See White, Irvin L. , et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., En- vironmental Protection Agency, forthcoming, Chapter 2. Data from Dames and Moore. Air Quality Monitoring and Meteorology, Navajo Generating Station--1974, Status Report, March 15, 1975, as cited in U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Final Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols.Salt Lake City, Utah:Bureau of Land Management,1976. °Data from Arizona, Department of Health Services, Bureau of Air Quality Control, as cited in BLM. FEIS: Kaiparowits. Not to be exceeded more than once a year. 176 ------- impacts1 on elevated terrain during stable conditions and when mixing of plumes is limited by air inversions at the plume height. Worst-case dispersion conditions are associated with stable con- ditions, low mixing depths,2 persistent wind direction, and low wind speeds (less than 10 miles per hour). The frequency with which these conditions occur varies locally. Meteorological conditions in the area are generally unfavor- able for pollution dispersion (i.e., they are stable) about 43 percent of the time. More favorable, unstable conditions are ex- pected to occur about 20 percent of the time. However, these un- stable conditions can contribute to localized, short-term concen- trations due to erratic plume movement (plume looping). 4.2.2 Factors Producing Impacts The primary air emission sources in the Kaiparowits/Escalante scenario are two power plants, supporting underground mines, and the population which is projected to increase. The focus of this section is on emissions of criteria pollutants from the energy facilities.3 The largest of these sources are the four 750 mega- watt boilers at each power plant site. Table 4-4 displays the emissions of five criteria pollutants from one 3,000 MWe power plant. The data assume that the stack gas scrubbing systems remove 99 percent of the particulates and 80 percent of the S02 in the coal and that the power plant is operating at full load. Comparison of emission rates (on a per million British thermal unit [Btu] basis) with New Source Perform- ance Standards'* (NSPS), also given in Table 4-4, indicates that a power plant with this level of control will more than meet NSPS for particulates and SO2. To just meet NSPS, no S02 removal and 98.6 percent particulate removal would be required. If scrubbers remove none of the oxides of nitrogen (NO ) generated in the 1 Plume impaction occurs when stack plumes impinge on elevated terrain because of limited atmospheric mixing and stable air con- ditions . 2Mixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upper boundary of pollution dispersion. 3Air impacts associated with population increases are dis- cussed (Section 4.2.3) as those impacts relate to the scenario which includes all facilities constructed according to the hypoth- esized schedule. "NSPS limits the amount of a given pollutant a stationary source may emit; the limit is expressed relative to the amount of energy in the fuel burned. 177 ------- TABLE 4-4: COMPARISON OF EMISSIONS FROM ONE 3,000 MEGAWATT POWER PLANT WITH NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS POLLUTANT Particulates SO 2 N0x CO HC POUNDS PER HOUR3 2,100 5,800 15,000-25,000 1,400 420 POUNDS PER 10 6 Btu's EMISSION 0.07 0.19 0.50-0.83b NA NA NSPS 0.1 1.2 0.7 NA NA NO.. = x nitrogen oxides CO = carbon monoxide NA = not available or not applicable NSPS = New Source Performance Standards Btu = British thermal unit S02 = sulfur dioxide HC = hydrocarbons o These data assume that the power plant is running at full load with 99 percent particulate removal and 80 percent S02 removal. NO range assumes 0 percent and 40 percent removal by scrubber. boiler, then NO emissions will violate the NSPS.1 The minimum NO removal to just meet NSPS is 16 percent.2 In addition to those criteria pollutants emitted from each power plant, the 75,000 barrel storage tank at the plant, with standard floating roof construction, will emit up to 0.7 pounds of hydrocarbons (HC) per hour. The power plants are cooled by wet forced-draft cooling towers. Each cell circulates water at a rate of 15,300 gallons per minute (gpm) and emits 0.01 percent of its water as a mist. The circula- ting water has a total dissolved solids (TDS) content of 7,120 parts per million (ppm). This results in a salt emission rate of 45,300 pounds per year for each cell (each power plant has 64 cells). The amount of NO that scrubbers remove is uncertain; esti- mates range from none to 40 percent. 2The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685, § 109 require both an emissions limitation and a percentage reduction of S02, particulates, and NOX. Revised standards have not yet been established by the Environmental Protection Agency. 178 ------- Emissions from the underground coal mines are expected to be negligible. However, emissions will originate from coal piles, breaking and sizing operations, and transportation at the mines, even though dust suppression (water spray) will be used.1 4.2.3 Impacts This section describes air quality impacts which result from each power plant taken separately2 and from a scenario which in- cludes the predicted impacts of both plants. For each power plant the effect on air quality of alternative stack heights, alternative emission control, and alternative plant sizes and locations is de- scribed. Interactions between facilities and impacts caused by the expected population increase are included in the scenario im- pact discussion. The focus is on concentrations of criteria pol- lutants (particulates, S02, N02, HC, and carbon monoxide [CO]). See Chapter 10 for a qualitative description of sulfates, other oxidants, fine particles, long-range visibility, plume opacity, and cooling tower fogging and icing. A. Power Plant Impacts Although construction processes may increase windblown dust, no other air quality impacts are associated with the construction of a power plant. Since periodic violations of 24-hour ambient particulate standards already occur due to blowing dust, the fre- quency of those violations can be expected to increase during power plant construction. The majority of air quality impacts result from the operation of a power plant and depend on the degree of emission control im- posed. Concentrations resulting from a base case, where control equipment is hypothesized to remove 80 percent of the SC-2 and 99 percent of all particulates, are discussed first, followed by a discussion of the effect on ambient air concentrations of alter- native emission controls, alternative stack heights, alternative plant sizes, and alternative plant locations. 1 The effectiveness of current dust suppression techniques is uncertain. Separate research being conducted by the Environmental Protection Agency is investigating this question; a discussion of fugitive dust problems is given in Chapter 10. 2Air quality impacts caused by the underground mines are ex- pected to be negligible in comparison with impacts caused by the power plants. However, the impact of fugitive dust originating from mines is uncertain and is discussed qualitatively in Chap- ter 10. 179 ------- (1) Hypothesized Emission Control Tables 4-5 and 4-6 summarize the concentrations of four pol- lutants predicted to be produced by the hypothesized plants at Kaiparowits and Escalante (both 3000 MWe, 80 percent SOa removal, and 99 percent particulate removal). Federal primary and secon- dary ambient air quality standards which regulate these pollutants directly1 and Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) incre- ments which regulate the pollutants indirectly2 are also included in the tables. As the tables indicate, both typical and peak concentrations associated with either power plant are below ambient standards. Ambient standards are not exceeded in the immediate vicinity of the power plants or in the nearby towns of Glen Canyon City and Escalante. The Kaiparowits power plant meets all allowable Class II increments, but the Escalante plant exceeds Class II increments for 24-hour particulates, 24-hour SOa, and 3-hour SOa- Both plants violate all Class I increments except for annual particu- lates . Since these plants exceed Class I increments, they must be located far enough away from Class I areas to allow emissions to be diluted by atmospheric mixing to the low concentrations allowed by Class I increments. The distance required for this dilution varies by facility type, size, emission controls, and meteorolog- ical conditions. In effect, this requirement establishes a "buffer zone" around Class I areas.3 Due to the complex terrain in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area, no one buffer zone size for potential Class I PSD areas can be Primary standards are designed to protect public health; sec- ondary standards are designed to protect public welfare. 2PSD increments are allowable increments of pollutants which can be added to areas of relatively clean air; that is, to areas with air quality better than that allowed by ambient air standards. They apply only to particulates and S02. There are three classes of increments. Class I increments are intended to protect the cleanest areas such as national parks and are the most restrictive. A Class II designation is for areas which have moderate, well con- trolled energy or industrial development and permits less deterior- ation than that allowed by federal secondary ambient standards. The Environmental Protection Agency initially designated all PSD areas Class II and established a petition and public hearing pro- cess for redesignating areas Class I or Class III. 3Note that the term buffer zone is in disfavor. We use it because we believe it accurately describes the effect of PSD re- quirements . 180 ------- in I J= en Q a rt a z g in (t! w z o H H g EH § O M § O o en (x E- Z U £ i Nl ^ .-f w< y Ou H tn tn rt j CJ M en tn rt a u >< 05 rt a z o CJ u CO JH K ^ £ M a; a< w E-t H U o K rt Oj M rt ^ EH 2 (^ J CU J rt CJ a. >< EH D Z o K o X u •a* r. n U r. M Z " tN rO iH rH a) 1 rM 1 rH «• rH O rH ... \| . 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W CO -H 01 CO M JJ C M 41 1 0 5 JJ -H IH 0 Vl JJ 41 Cu 0 (0 > x! e o rH 01 -H cO XI in 0 MH E C •H O O 0 JJ O -H 0 in jj x: o> oi co JJ JJ C Vl O CO -rl JJ a E E c >(-rl 4) .c jj 'O u in C c 01 41 CO O x; rj JJ JJ JJ in c E 4) (0 • O XI rH 01 Vl Qj rH MH 41 0) x; 41 > 10 JJ JS 0) C 4J ^H O D JJ 0 O co o vi co Vl JJ MH JJ rH c "a in co 01 0) C 3 O >H 0 C C 41 -H C 0 "O JJ (8 O -H CO in M MH • rH C JJ O JJ 01 0 C C > O CD C CO 4) U O rH rH 41 C -r( Or 1 Vl O JJ 'O CO O CL, Q) c Q) x: 3 01 J< O JJ O rH (fl X IH 41 4) 41 0 Cn > O. 4J 01 0> 4) J3 JJ rH JJ T3 JJ XI O C XI 10 •rl 3 MH JJ JJ •O O O -H 3 01 M S XI IH fflJJ -rl CU ^ 10 Vl O O 41 JJ 01 (0 £ C JJ V) XI -rl CO (8 E 4) • >, 41 !T> 1/1 4) rH to co rH £ o) 0) rl 0) JJ CJ1 x; 41 > vi EH > 4) O (0 « IB rH 4J rH •0 C JJ O CO 0 C C 1 •o x: 3 - C JJ fl) rH X: CO rH Vl rH 18 CO CO 0 JJ e 01 Qi o >ix; oi M OIMH IH co o co o 0 E -H VI 6, -rl rH 4) W 10 vixi > JJ jj Cu 3 CO C in • = Cn 41 41 0) rH E VI JJ JJ 10 0) O CO • O 3 Vl MH JJ 01 41 C 0 10 01 JJ C C-rH C O (0 -rl CO IH 0 Vi C 0 Cb 41 Q) O rH JS rH -rl rH IB 0 JJ XI JJ IB M JJ IB IB iH 4) C S C 41 t> -O (0 0 T3 0) 4> J3 rH in 4) MH C JJ rH (0 MH BI IB 41 -H Vl J= IH x; in 4) 4) O 4) JJ 4) X! X! 3 jC O JJ JJ io •u C O •H (B to Q) - 4) Xi 13 ID M In JJ Vl 0) (0 -rl MH co E IB O JJ "O -H in C C JJ T3 C JJ 41 CO Vi co C DiJJ Cn CB 41 0) C in C T3 rH D»-H -rl C U C Vi >i Cn co •H 4J JJ IB JJ >i IH in -ri IH in H JJ rH 41 41 U 4) IB > Q > vi 3 10 tn -H •POD1 0< JJ in E M co O Vl 0 rH E 01 -rl MH .01 Vi (0 IH Vi 41 CO 10 (0 •C JJ "D 01 MH JJ 01 C M >, O TJ Q) CO 4) Vi -H "O IH in M 18 XI C 41 IB TO -a E C IB JJ M "O 18 in 4) 18 4) JJ rH 0 jj m ce rH c o in IH rH o JJ •rl >, 0) < rH jj -o a >o •rl 0) CO 0) 01 rH UH • J3 -O •a (0 SHJJ -o Vl 3 O rH CO CO DJJ 0) 41 "O > IH 4) C VI VI -H O XI (B -H 0) -M E JJ 10 MH 0 C Ul 41 4) "O CO jj vi a oi u •u C in TJ CO): Q) 41 X! 01 -H >, IH 41 0 •H XI Vl O -H Xj E IB * X £ E CO TJ 41 4) S 10 CM oi o co oi in 4) JJ U MH XI JJ XI (0 4) H C EH JJ 01 01 O IB jo in r 3 jj 4-1 rg o z 0 JJ •a 01 JJ M 4) c 0 0 01 Vl IB 10 41 o IH 3 0 in JJ c (8 rH a E 0 M MH — . X o ••-' c 41 Cn 0 IH JJ •rl C MH 0 in 01 T3 •rl X o rH rH CO JJ IB JC JJ •O 01 E 3 in in 18 10 •H JJ H CJ t E cd CA 1 vc JJ (8 ro 41 M 3 in (0 g 01 •H •a M CO •a c C8 JJ 0] CJ X IH 3 0 CO 4) H •a number jj 10 M •rl MH 41 EH , in Vl 41 XI • X) -O 3 0) M > U 0 01 E 0> >i M XI tn X-rl O Z 4) C MH 0 O C rH to IB 0) > E o 3 E to 01 10 M CS 4) M x: o> g JJ 3 3 C 0 XI tl (8 C 0 in u C (U O in •H JJ o> n, r; § * in » tn "O (8 41 O O 3 E JJ 4) IH in JJ 10 C -H 01 in JJ 4> C M 01 Cu o 4) M Vi 41 a 4) Did C «• IB M "O 01 10 E •H 3 X! in EH in CU CO 182 ------- defined. However, the 3-hour S02 increment for Class I areas may be exceeded in Bryce Canyon National Park, located about 25 miles to the west1 (Figure 4-3). Other nearby areas which have recently been designated Class I include Zion, Capitol Reef, Grand Canyon, and Canyonlands National Parks. (2) Alternative Emission Controls The base case control for the Kaiparowits/Escalante power plants assumed an SOa scrubber efficiency of 80 percent and an electrostatic precipitator (ESP) efficiency of 99 percent. The effect on ambient air concentrations of three additional emission control alternatives is illustrated in Table 4-7. These alter- natives include a 95 percent efficient S02 scrubber in conjunction with a 99 percent efficient ESP, an 80 percent efficient S02 scrubber without an ESP, and alternatives in which neither a scrubber nor an ESP is utilized. An examination of Table 4-7 reveals that removal of particu- late control results in significant violations of National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for 24-hour and annual total sus- pended particulates (TSP) at both planes. Removal of the S02 scrubber at Escalante results in violations of all Class II PSD increments for S02 emissions and NAAQS for 3-hour and 24-hour S02 emissions. Removal of the S02 scrubber at Kaiparowits also results in violations of all Class II PSD S02 emission increments and the NAAQS 24-hour S02 emission standard. The Escalante power plant can meet Class II PSD increments with 95 percent S02 removal, but not with 80 percent S02 removal. (3) Alternative Stack Heights In order to examine the effects of alternative stack heights on air quality in the Kaiparowits/Escalante scenario, worst-case dispersion modeling was carried out for a 300-foot stack (lowest stack height consistent with good engineering practice), a 500- foot stack (an average or most frequently used height), and a 1,000-foot stack (a highest stack height). The results of this analysis are shown in Table 4-8. Emissions on each power plant are controlled by an 80 percent efficient S02 scrubber and a 99 percent efficient ESP; the 500-foot case was given previously as part of the base case. A comparison of data in Table 4-8 with NAAQS indicates that the Kaiparowits power plant could operate well within the NAAQS S02 and TSP standards with a 300-foot stack. The Escalante power plant would violate the 3-hour S02 NAAQS with a 300-foot stack. JThis estimate is based on the Radian Corporation's best pro- fessional judgment. 183 ------- Existing Roads National Park or Recreation Area FIGURE 4-3: AIR IMPACTS OF ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE SCENARIO 184 ------- f-. (rt g 3. Z 0 H EH EH Z W CJ z o u EH Z EH 3 O ft £ D rH X £ of ,J O Q E* Z o CJ o H Z tD o £ < CO EH j ^ O z z ft CO EH ^ X 1 IN CM O CO 3 r^ £3 Z z rt CD to (X I (N (Si o CO « X I ro ft CO EH CJ O CO u EH CO O O O O v,o v£j O O •tT^OO r- 1 rH O O •? 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CO EH 33 C «H 0) O o .c •H s in +J 01 iB in ID •P cu c co in cu O -H > H !H -H JJ iJ O CU 0 H 0) ID O W JS C IB -P -rH . O C JJ rH O O IB rH -H S X! IB 4J •P -P g 10 ID IH 0) -P -P JS 0 IB C •P IB (D UH in o W CU C o o) o o HH X! 3 0 •P 73 in o ft C 0 rj W 0 -P O.E-I •H •P CU .C r4 IB rH rj QJ >H J3 -H S •P 10 £ O C -P 3 rH (U 3 o .a >, C -H MH rH O M MH JJ O 4J O £ •P en ft IB TJ -rH CO ID H EH CU C W IH IH • 10 3 (0 K 41 SB 13 T3 i cu in c T in -H 10 IN 3 M » C W (D .Y •H -H £) 0 ja JB W M 3 -P 0) O IH M O -P O C IB in cu Q) 4J ,* IH -H H j= £i 10 O,.p 4J 185 ------- U EH CO CO W EH EH !S W EH W 2 ft O C^ W o <: 2 J H i< EH U A to D W CO \ W CO OH EH H CO & EH O U OH ft ft H /< >H EH EH H ff, < CO PI EH O( p"! 05 H H W 00 I w CO g CO is o H EH W U is 0 U EH is EH O ft s s H X § c/ E- Q ?r w h EH £ U £ W s w£ E- rr U ft CO EH « ffi 1 •* CM CM O CO Qi ffi 1 CM Cvl O to K i co J •i i i 1 4J i CU < (1) 1 " 1 1 , . w EH H to O O O ^ O O1 oo m vo n oo in CM O CM rH rH rH r~ co >£> m rH ^D in c o fd ±4 i — i fd fd a 0 -H H fcH CO § Q § EH CO w J § U H (J ft ft isjj 00 0 o o r- vr> in co CM H in \| rH U3 1 (Ti co 1 0 CM 1 0 rH oo in rH in -P C Q) e Q) U c H ,_, >i Q —- M tO >i fO ft fd c H SO H •H O CO ^ 0) CO O CX CO CO H O fd -H T) -P C fd -P O CO -H >i Q) •P -P CO -iH 0) Q) rH fO -P rd fd 3 -P HOC 3 (d U M O •H -H -H I 1 ^ 111 U -H (d -P c & P! tr> Q) -H (U XI C i< O Q) (X co td O 3 C -H M O -P •H C rH 4J 0) (0 (d > •P 2 (1) O ^ •P II II CO II O ft < Q to ------- For the more stringent Class II PSD standards, the Escalante plant would violate all standards with both a 300- and a 500-foot stack, but would meet Class II increments with a 1,000-foot stack. The Kaiparowits power plant would meet all Class II PSD increments with a 300-foot stack. (4) Alternative Plant Sizes Because the base-case Escalante power plant in this scenario is expected to violate PSD Class II increments, even with 80 per- cent S02 removal and 99 percent particulate removal, the effect of alternative plant sizes was also analyzed; the results are given in Table 4-9. The Escalante plant would be able to meet all PSD Class II increments only if generation capacity were reduced from 3000 MWe to 750 MWe. At 1500 MWe, the plant violates 24-hour S02 and 24-hour TSP Class II PSD increments. (5) Alternative Plant Locations The complex terrain at the proposed Escalante site aggravates violations of Class II PSD increments during periods of plume im- paction on that terrain. Thus, the effect of relocating the plant to a site where the terrain at and around the plant is flat was examined. A site along the ridge of the Kaiparowits Plateau to the southwest of the original Escalante site was used for flat terrain modeling. Table 4-10 shows that relocation of the power plant to flat terrain would result in compliance with all Class II PSD increments (assuming a 500-foot stack height, 80 percent SOz removal, and 99 percent removal of particulates). (6) Summary of Power Plant Air Impacts The frequency of current violations of the NAAQS particulate standards at the Kaiparowits/Escalante site will probably increase during the construction phase of the power plants (due to blowing dust). Once the plants are in operation, the 3000 MWe plant at Kaiparowits (80 percent S02 removal, 99 percent TSP removal, 500- foot stack height) would meet Class II PSD increments, the most stringent of applicable standards. The Escalante plant under the same stack height and emission control assumptions, would violate several Class II PSD increments. For that plant, all Class II PSD increments could be met by: increasing stack height to 1,000 feet; relocating the plant to flat terrain; or reducing plant capacity from 3,000 MWe to 750 MWe. B. Scenario Impacts This section discusses air quality impacts that may occur because of interactions between the two power plants and those that result as the population increases according to the manpower demands of the construction and operation schedule. 187 ------- TABLE 4-9: AIR QUALITY IMPACTS RESULTING FROM ALTERNATIVE PLANT SIZES AT ESCALANTE POWER PLANT UNIT SIZE (MWe) 750 NO. OF UNITS 1 2 3 4 PLANT CAPACITY (MWe) 750 1500 2250 3000 APPLICABLE STANDARDS NAAQS (primary) (secondary) Class II PSD increments MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION (yg/m3) 3-HR. S02 266 532 798 1060 1300 512 24-HR. SO 2 73 147 220 293 365 91 24-HR. TSP 26.2 52.5 78.8 105.0 260 150 37 yg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter MWe = megawatt-electric HR. = hour S02 = sulfur dioxide TSP = total suspended particulates NAAQS = National Ambient Air Quality Standards PSD = prevention of significant deterioration TABLE 4-10: AIR QUALITY IMPACTS RESULTING FROM RELOCATING THE ESCALANTE POWER PLANT FROM A COMPLEX TO A FLAT TERRAIN3 TERRAIN CASE Complex Flat MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION (yg/m3) 3-HR. SO 2 1060 242 24-HR SO 2 293 37.7 24-HR. TSP 105 13.5 yg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter HR. = hour S02 = sulfur dioxide TSP = total suspended particulates aStack height is assumed to be 500 feet, 80 percent S02 removal, 99 percent TSP removal, 3000 megawatt-electric. 188 ------- (1) To 1980 Neither hypothetical power plant is scheduled, in this hypoth- esized scenario, to be in operation in this time period. The sce- nario calls for construction of the Kaiparowits plant beginning in 1975 and of the Escalante plant in 1979. Few air quality impacts are caused by the construction itself; however, population increases will be substantial and concentrated in towns, including the Kaipar- owits new town to be built north of Glen Canyon City, Utah. By 1980, this town is projected to have a population of approximately S^SO.1 Increased emissions from a town this size are expected to result in concentrations of particulates, EC, CO, SC-2 , and NC>2 only slightly higher than current background levels. Automobiles are a primary source. (2) To 2000 The Kaiparowits power plant becomes operational in 1983 and the Escalante plant in 1987 (22 miles apart). No additional facil- ities are hypothesized for this scenario through the year 2000. Interaction of pollutants between these two plants may occur if the wind blows directly from one plant to the other. Effective concen- trations were investigated for a worst-case situation where one plant was located 5 miles downwind from the other under flat terrain conditions. Maximum pollutant concentrations at 5 miles separation distance violate neither NAAQS nor Class II PSD increments.* Thus, short-term concentrations of criteria pollutants resulting from the interaction of plumes between the two plants would be less than that caused from one plant by plume impaction on high terrain. When both plants are operating, visibility is expected to de- crease from the current average of 70 miles at Navajo Point to 63 miles. In a worst-case situation, expected to occur infrequently, short-term visibilities could be reduced to between 4 and 9 miles, depending on the amount of S02 converted to particulates in the atmosphere.3 1 See Section 4.4 for population projections. 2Calculated maximum pollutant concentrations from the inter- action of Kaiparowits and Escalante power plants at a separation distance of 5 miles include: 3-hr. S02, 392; 24-hr. SOa, 64; and 24-hr. TSP, 22.8. Maximum concentrations of S02 and TSP were cal- culated using existing modeling runs for flat terrain conditions. 3Short-term visibility impacts were investigated using a "box- type" dispersion model. This particular model assumes that all emissions occurring during a specified time interval are uniformly mixed and confined in a box that is capped by a lid or stable layer aloft. A lid of 500 meters was used. The effect of SOa to sulfate conversion rates of 10 percent and 1 percent were modeled. 189 ------- The Kaiparowits new town is expected to increase in population from 3,350 (1980) to 6,940 by 1990 and 7,290 by 2000. This will contribute to increases in pollution concentrations due solely to urban sources. Table 4-11 displays predicted 1990 concentrations of five criteria pollutants measured in the center of the town and at. a point three miles from the center of town.1 When concentra- tions from urban sources are added to background levels and to concentrations from the power plant (Tables 4-5 and 4-6), the HC levels exceed ambient standards.2 No other standard is approached by these concentrations. Current PSD increments are designed to restrict pollution from large point sources (e.g., power plants), not from urban sources (e.g., automobiles). If the same PSD criteria were applied to urban sources that are currently applied to industrial sources, population increases in the Kaiparowits new town would violate PSD increments for particulates (Table 4-11). Concentrations of HC over Kaiparowits, which may be three times higher than the federal standard by the year 2000, are also likely to create an oxidant problem. Since oxidants may take as much as an hour to form, this problem will be less when wind con- ditions move pollutants rapidly away from the town. C. Other Air Impacts Nine additional categories of potential air impacts have been examined; that is, an attempt has been made to identify sources of pollutants and how energy development may affect levels of these pollutants during the next 25 years. These include sulfates, oxidants, fine particulates, long-range visibility, plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, cooling tower fogging and icing, trace element emissions, and fugitive dust emissions.3 Although there are likely to be local impacts as a consequence of these pollutants, both the available data and knowledge about impact mechanisms are insufficient to allow quantitative site-specific analyses. Thus, these are discussed in a more general, qualita- tive manner in Chapter 10. Concentrations in the year 2000 will be about 5 percent higher than for 1990. 2Ambient HC standards are violated regularly in most urban areas. 3No analytical information is currently available on the source and formation of nitrates. See Hazardous Materials Advisory Com- mittee. Nitrogenous Compounds in the Environment, U.S., Environ- mental Protection Agency Report No. EPA-SAB-73-001. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973. 190 ------- TABLE 4-11: POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS DUE TO URBAN SOURCES AT KAIPAROWITS NEW TOWN IN 1990 (micrograms per cubic meter) POLLUTANT AVERAGING TIME Particulates Annual 24-hour SO 2 Annual 24-hour 3-hour N02d Annual HC 3-hour CO 8-hour 1-hour CONCENTRATIONS a BACKGROUND 20 20 10 10 10 4 unknown unknown MIDTOWN POINT0 16 54 8 27 48 26 481 1,606 2,632 RURAL POINT 4 54 2 27 48 6 481 1,606 2,632. STANDARDS3 PRIMARY 75 260 80 365 100 160 10,000 40,000 SECONDARY 60 150 1,300 300 160 10,000 40,000 SO2 = sulfur dioxide NO2 = nitrogen dioxide HC = hydrocarbons CO = carbon monoxide These concentrations are predicted ground-level concentrations from urban sources. Background concentrations are taken from Table 4-4. "Rural points" are measurements taken 3 miles from the center of town. "Primary" and "secondary" are federal ambient air quality standards designed to protect the public health and welfare, respectively. In no case are Utah ambient air quality standards more stringent than federal ones. See White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,forthcoming, Chapter 2. GThe 1980 concentrations are predicted to be only slightly higher than background. Concentrations in 2000 will be about 5 percent higher than 1990. It is assumed that 50 percent of oxides of nitrogen from urban sources are converted to NO2. 191 ------- 4.2.4 Summary of Air Impacts Two new 3000 MWe power plants are hypothesized in the Kaiparo- wits/Excalante region. Particulate standards are already periodi- cally violated in the region due to blowing dust; mining and power plant construction activities would aggravate that problem. In order to just meet NSPS for particulates and SOa each power plant would require 98.6 percent particulate removal but no SC>2 removal. However at that level of control, the Escalante plant would violate one primary and two secondary federal ambient standards, and both plants would exceed several Class II PSD incre- ments. If no N0x is removed by the scrubber systems, the NSPS for NOX will be violated; at least 16 percent of the NO produced in the boiler must be removed if emissions are to meet NSPS. Ambient air standards for NOX can be met by both plants if no NO is removed. With the hypothesized emission control (80 percent S02/ 99 percent particulate) and a 500-foot stack, neither plant would violate any federal ambient air standards; the Kaiparowits plant would not exceed any Class II increments; but the Escalante plant would exceed several short-term Class II increments. The Esca- lante plant causes violations primarily because it is hypotheti- cally located in complex terrain where plume impaction occurs. The Kaiparowits plant can meet Class II increments if the stack height were only 300 feet. The Escalante plant can meet Class II increments for S02 by increasing SOz scrubber efficiency to 95 percent. It can meet Class II increments for both SO 2 and particulates by increasing the stack height to 1000 feet, relo- cating the plant to flat terrain, or by decreasing plant capacity from 3000 MWe to 750 MWe. Class I PSD increments would be violated by both plants, and a Class I buffer zone size cannot be established due to the com- plex terrain in the area. The closest Class I area where viola- tions might occur is Bryce Canyon National Park (25 miles). If both plants are built, visibility will'be reduced at Nava^jo Point from 70 miles to 63 miles (on the average). In a worst-case situation, occurring infrequently, short-term visibilities could be reduced to between 4 and 9 miles. Even if the plants are spaced closer than the distance hypothesized (22 miles) plume interactions would not violate NAAQS or Class II increments (assuming both are located on flat terrain). Population increases in the Kaiparowits new town will add to pollution problems. Concentrations from urban sources are expected to violate the NAAQS for HC by 1990. If PSD increments were applied to urban sources, the Class II particulate increment would be violated. 192 ------- 4.3 WATER IMPACTS 4.3.1 Introduction Surface water from Lake Powell will be the major water source for energy development in the Kaiparowits/Escalante region (see Figure 4-4). Precipitation in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area ranges from 6 to 10 inches per year in the southern areas to 20 inches in the Escalante mountains to the north. Annual snow fall ranges from 12 to 24 inches.1 This section identifies the sources and uses of water re- quired for each power plant, the residuals that will be produced, and the water availability and quality impacts that are likely to result. 4.3.2 Existing Conditions2 A. Groundwater Three aquifer systems are present in the Lake Powell area: small alluvial aquifers in deposits along rivers and streams; perched aquifers3 in the coal-bearing Straight Cliffs geologic formation; and a regional aquifer in the deep Navajo Sandstone. Alluvial aquifers are located in sand and gravel strata below valley stream beds. The water table in these shallow aquifers is generally less than 100 feet below the surface. The aquifers generally discharge into streams and are recharged by the streams and by underflow from perched aquifers. While the groundwater quality is generally good (depending on stream quality), the quan- tity of water available from alluvial aquifers is quite small. The perched aquifers in the Straight Cliffs Formation, the formation in which the minable coal is located, are in sandstone bodies that are generally small and erratically distributed in shale. Water yields vary from less than 1 to about 50 gpm. The moisture content of 1 inch of rain is equal to approx- imately 15 inches of snow. 2Available data for describing the natural ground and surface water conditions in the area are sketchy. The primary data source is the environmental impact statement prepared for the proposed Kaiparowits coal-fired power plant. U.S., Department of the Inter- ior, Bureau of Land Management. Final Environmental Impact State- ment: Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976. 3Perched aquifers are small, usually localized aquifers that are above the true water table. 193 ------- Existing Roads = Water Line and Pumping Station Navaho ~> Plant FIGURE 4-4: WATER SUPPLIES AND PIPELINES FOR THE KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE SCENARIO 194 ------- These shallow aquifers are recharged by direct infiltration of precipitation, and discharge is from seeps and springs. The water in these aquifers, which is relatively poor quality (TDS range around 1,000 milligrams per liter, [mg/£] ) , is used by livestock and wildlife. The most important regional aquifer is located in the Navajo sandstone at a depth of 1,000 to 2,000 feet in the vicinity of the hypothetical power plants. This aquifer is not presently being used in the Kaiparowits area. At lower elevations along Wahweap Creek where the aquifer is quite shallow, wells yield from several hundred to more than 1,000 gpm. Recharge of this regional aquifer is in the area of sandstone outcrops, and most of the discharge is probably into Lake Powell. The quality of the groundwater in the aquifer varies from fresh to slightly saline (up to 3,000 mg/£) . Although groundwater is used exclusively by some of the area's inhabitants, it is high in hardness and exceeds several of the recommended limits set for drinking water as shown in Table 4-12. B. Surface Water The only major perennial river in the Kaiparowits area is the Colorado River. Glen Canyon Dam, which forms Lake Powell, is located 16 miles up the Colorado River from Lee Ferry,1 the offi- cial division between the Upper and Lower Colorado River Basin, and 5 to 10 miles downstream from the scenario site. At the nor- mal water surface elevation, Lake Powell extends 186 miles up the Colorado River and 71 miles up the San Juan River. The lake operates under the criteria established by the Sec- retary of the Interior to control flows in the Colorado River at Lees Ferry to meet conditions of the Colorado River Compact.2 For hydroelectric power generation, a minimum pool elevation must be maintained. Normal releases are approximately 10 percent of the cumulative 10-year flow required by the Colorado River Compact (75 million acre-feet) plus an allocation of Upper Basin flow assumed to be required by treaty with Mexico.3 This totals a Lee Ferry, the designated division point on the river is located near the town of Lees Ferry, Arizona. 2Colorado River Compact of 1922, 42 Stat. 171, and 45 Stat. 1064, declared effective by Presidential Proclamation, 46 Stat. 3000 (1928). 3Treaty between the United States of America and Mexico Re- specting Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, February 3, 1944, 59 Stat. 1219 (1945), Treaty Series No. 994. 195 ------- TABLE 4-12: GROUNDWATER QUALITY DATA FOR KAIPAROWITS SCENARIO SUBSTANCE Arsenic Barium Cadmium Chloride Chromium Copper Cyanide Fluoride Iron Lead Mercury Nitrate Selenium Silver Sulfate Zinc Dissolved Solids nRTNKTNr1 WATFR U l\ J. IV Pi -L L>t vj VlrtXEjIx RECOMMENDED LIMITS3 (mg/n 0.05 1.0 0.01 250. Od 0.05e 1.0d No Standard 1.4-2.4^ 0.3d 0.05 0.002 10. Oh 0.01 0.05 250. Od 5.0d 500. Od NAVAJO SANDSTONE AQUIFER SAMPLE WELL \|19 (mg/8,) 140.0 0.4 0.03 j 0.531 1,060.0 SAMPLEb WELL 120 (mg/i) 16.0 1.40 0.3J 292. 0 STRAIGHT CLIFFS FORMATION DRILL0 HOLE 12 (mg/«,) 0.002 0.05 0. 01 0.02f 0.03 0.005 0.13 0.001 0.001 0. 5 DRILLC HOLE #10 (mgA) 0.003 0.05 0.05 0.42f 0.42 0.005 0.58 0.001 0.005 4.98 mg/8, = milligrams per liter aU.S., Environmental Protection Agency. "National Interim Primary Drinking Water Regu- lations." 40 Fed. Reg. 59566-88 (December 24, 1975). These regulations also include standards for turbidity, organic chemicals, and microbiological contaminants. U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Final Environmental Im- pact Statement: Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of" Land Management, 1976, p. 11-147. clbid., p. 11-149. dU.S., Environmental Protection Agency. "National Secondary Drinking Water Regulations." Proposed Regulations. 42 Fed. Reg. 17143-47 (March 31, 1977). eAs chromate (Cr+6). Total chromium. eFluride standard varies according to the annual average of the maximum daily air temper- ature for the location in which the community water system is situated. The lowest level is for temperatures above 26.3° Centigrade (C), and the highest level is for temperatures below 12°C. Measured as nitrogen. 1Nitrate (NOD + nitrite (N07) as nitrogen. ^Nitrate (NOD- 196 ------- release of approximately 8.25 million acre-feet per year (acre- ft/yr). Basic storage and water quality data for Lake Powell are presented in Table 4-13. Water quality data can be compared to typical industrial boiler feed water quality requirements which are also shown. The estimated 1975 surface water supply and uses in Utah's portion of the Colorado River are shown on Table 4-14. Irrigation is the largest water use. If both power plants are built, as called for in this hypothetical scenario, power generation water usage will be increased by a factor of 10 but will still be less than 20 percent of the volume used for agriculture. The local surface water system directly affected by the Kaiparowits/Escalante energy development also includes several ephemeral and intermittent streams. Flow in these streams is generally the result of cloudbursts that occur frequently in late summer. The mean annual runoff for these streams is as follows:1 Stream Acre-ft/yr2 Warm Creek 1,000 Wahweap Creek 2,000 Last Chance Creek 2,800 Escalante River 12,900 Peak flood flows in these creeks can be considerable. For example, where Coyote and Wahweap Creeks come together, flows have a 50 percent probability of attaining 2,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) once every two years. Water quality in these ephemeral and intermittent streams has been sampled. Although the antecedent conditions were not reported, values for estimated flow and TDS during May 1974 were:3 ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Final Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976, Chapter 2, p. 2-156. 20ne thousand acre-ft/yr corresponds to 1.38 cubic feet per second. 3BLM. FEIS; Kaiparowits, p. 2-157. 197 ------- TABLE 4-13: STORAGE AND WATER QUALITY DATA FOR LAKE POWELL PARAMETER Minimum power pool elevation Maximum water level Dead storage Active storage below minimum power pool elevation Active storage above minimum power pool elevation POLLUTANT Dissolved solids Calcium Magnesium Sodium Potassium Carbonate Bicarbonate Chloride Sulfate Dissolved Oxygen VALUE 3,490 feet above mean sea level 3,711 feet above mean sea level 1,998,000 acre-feet 4,126,000 acre-feet 20,876,000 acre-feet WATER QUALITY3 (mg/£) MINIMUM 475.0 58.4 21.7 60.3 3.5 0.0 107.0 38.0 197.0 4.0 MAXIMUM 677.0 85. 0 29.8 93.8 5.1 23.1 182.0 70.3 281.0 10.1 TYPICAL BOILER FEED WATER (mg/£) < 10.10 0.10 0.03 0.24 < 0.01 < 0.01 < 10.00 0.14 mg/£ = milligrams per liter < = less than Water Quality Data from USGS Sampling Station No. 1, Colorado River Channel above Mouth of Wahweap Creek, unpublished, 1974, 1975. American Water Works Association, Inc. Water Quality and Treat- ment, 3rd ed. New York, N.Y.: McGraw-Hill, 1971, p. 510, Table 16-1. Some numbers derived from Table 16-1, assuming concentra- ting factor = 100, high pressure drum type boiler. 198 ------- TABLE 4-14: ESTIMATED 1975 SURFACE-WATER RESOURCES AND USES FOR UTAH IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN (1,000 acre-feet) Average Annual Water Supply Utah's estimated share of Upper Colorado River flow3 Estimated 1975 Usesb Irrigation Municipal and Industrial Including Rural Minerals Thermal Electric Recreation and F&WL Other Reservoir Evaporation Estimated Exports Total Depletions Net Available for Use 1,322 521 7 9 8 8 118 194 112 977 346 F&WL = Fish and Wildlife aAssumes 5.8 million acre-feet per year available for use in the Upper Colorado River Basin, of which Utah is entitled to 23 percent. U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclama- tion. Westwide Study Report on Critical Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western States.Washington,D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975, pp. 374-75. 199 ------- Total Dissolved Flow Solids Stream (cfs) (mg/&) Wahweap Creek 1.0 2,140 Warm Creek very low 4,710 Last Chance Creek very low 3,520 Escalante River 2.6 1,150 Under the Upper Colorado River Basin Compact,2 Utah is en- titled to 23 percent of the water allocated to the Upper Basin after 50,000 acre-ft/yr is deducted for Arizona. Primarily be- cause of variations in calculated values for total flow and the portion of the Mexican Treaty which may be allocated to the Upper Basin, Utah's share of the Upper Basin water is uncertain. The Department of the Interior's Water for Energy Management Team estimates that the Upper Basin states have about 5.8 million acre- ft/yr to divide among themselves. This would entitle Utah to 1,322,500 acre-ft/yr. 4.3.3 Factors Producing Impacts The water requirements of and effluents from the energy facil- ities will cause water impacts. These requirements and effluents are identified in this section for each type of energy facility. Associated population increases also increase municipal water de- mand and sewage effluent; however, these are presented in Section 4.3.4 only for the scenario which includes both power plants and associated coal mines constructed according to the scenario sched- ule . A. Water Requirements of Energy Facilities The water requirements for energy facilities hypothesized in the Kaiparowits/Escalante region are shown in Table 4-15. Two sets of data are presented. The Energy Resource Development Sys- tem (ERDS) Report data are based on secondary sources, including impact statements, Federal Power Commission (FPC) docket filings, 1From U.S. Geological Survey Water Resource Data, transformed from specific conductance measurement to TDS using Hem, John D. Study and Interpretation of the Chemical Characteristics of Natural Water, 2nd ed., U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 1473. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1970, Figure 10. 2Upper Colorado River Basin Compact of 1948, Pub. L. 81-37, 63 Stat. 31 (1949). 200 ------- TABLE 4-15: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR ENERGY FACILITIES AT KAIPAROWITS (acre-feet per year) TECHNOLOGY' ERDS WET COOLING WPA COMBINATIONS OF WETC AND DRY COOLING HIGH WET INTERMEDIATE WET Power Generation Kaiparowits Escalante 29,400 29,400 29,816 29,816 9,481 9,481 Cost range in which indicated cooling technology is most economic (dollars per thousand gallons) Power Plant NC < 3.65-5.90 >3.65-5.90 ERDS = Energy Resource Development System < WPA = Water Purification Associates > NC = no change = less than = greater than These values assume an annual load factor of 75 percent. White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West; Energy Re- source Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. °Gold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generationand Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United StateiTWashington,D.C.:U.S.,Environmental Protec- tion Agency, 1977. Combinations of wet/dry cooling were obtained by examining the economics of cooling alternatives for the turbine con- densors. In the high wet case, the turbine condensers are all wet cooled; in the intermediate case, wet cooling handles 10 percent of the load on the turbine condensors and dry cooling handles 90 percent. 201 ------- and recent published data accumulations,1 and can be considered typical requirement levels. The Water Purification Associates data are from a study on minimum water use requirements and take into account certain opportunities to recycle water on site as well as the moisture content of the coal being used and local meteorological conditions.2 As Table 4-15 indicates, the volume of water needed for each 3,000 MWe coal-fired power plant in the Kaiparowits/Escalante scenario is estimated at more than 29,800 acre-ft/yr, assuming wet cooling (the high wet cooling ca'se on Table 4-15) . If some dry cooling is used (the intermediate wet case on Table 4-15), water requirements could be reduced to 9,481 acre-ft/yr, a savings of 69 percent for each power plant. From an economic standpoint, the decision of which cooling technology to use depends upon the availability and price of water. If water costs less than $3.65 to $5.90 per thousand gallons, high cooling would be the most economically attractive. If water costs more than $3.65 to $5.90 per thousand gallons, intermediate cooling would be the most attractive alternative. If water costs only $0.25 per thousand gallons and intermediate cooling is used to conserve water, the added costs of electricity will be 0.1 to 0.2 cents per kilowatt hour. Figure 4-5 indicates the manner in which the water require- ment for a 3,000 MWe power plant at Kaiparowits or Escalante will be used. As indicated, the greatest amount of water will be con- sumed for cooling. Water for solids disposal and other uses (e.g. , flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and mine dust control) consume about 2,000-3,000 acre-ft/yr depending on which estimates are used. The water required for mining (from 1800 to 3300 acre-ft/yr) includes that for dust control (35 percent) , coal washing (58 per- cent) , service, fire, sanitary, and potable water (6 percent), and for revegetation of coal refuse (1 percent). As shown in Figure 4-4, water intakes are to be located at Warm Creek for the Kaiparowits plant and in the flooded portion of White, Irvin L. , et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, B.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. These ERDS Reports are based on data drawn from University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program. Energy Alternatives; A Comparative Analy- sis . Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975; Radian Corporation. A Western Regional Energy Development Study, Final Report, 3 vols . and Executive Summary. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1975. 2Gold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States . Washington, B.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, I9~77. 202 ------- Q) >H -P m i (U !-l U o o o -H FIGURE 4-5: 30 _ 25 20 15 10 ERDS WPA-H Cool Ev Solids WPA-I . Evaporation and Other Power Generation (3,000 MWe) WATER CONSUMPTION FOR A 3,000 MEGAWATT-ELECTRIC POWER PLANT AT KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE, UTAHa ERDS = Energy Resource Development System WPA-H = Water Purification Associates-High Wet Cooling WPA-I - Water Purification Associates-Intermediate Wet Cooling The ERDS data is from White, Irvin L. et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. The WPA data is from Gold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United State's^ Washington, D.C. : U.S. , Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. 203 ------- the Escalante River at Willow Creek for the Escalante plant. Groundwater resources are not sufficient to meet the needs of the energy facilities. Lake Powell is the designated source of surface water for the hypothetical energy development called for at the Kaiparowits site. To obtain the necessary water for energy development, the devel- oper must acquire a water right from the state of Utah or purchase water from the holder of an existing water right and must enter into a contract with the Department of the Interior if water is to be drawn from the lake rather than from a naturally flowing water- course within Utah. B. Effluents from Energy Facilities When operating at full capacity, each 3,000 MWe power plant in the Kaiparowits/Escalante scenario will produce more than 9,700 tons of solid effluents per day, including more than 70 tons of dissolved solids, 1,250 tons of dry solids, and 8,350 tons of wet solids. Table 4-16 shows the rate of solid effluent per day for a single power plant. Dissolved solids are present in the ash blowdown effluent, the demineralizer waste effluent, and the FGD effluent.1 The principal, dissolved constituents of wastewater which appear are calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate, and chlorine. Wet solids from electric power plants are in the form of flue gas sludge, bottom ash, and cooling water treatment and waste sludge. Bottom ash is primarily oxides of aluminum and silicon. Calcium carbonate (CaCOa) and calcium sulfate (CaSOi) are the pri- mary constituents of flue gas sludge. The cooling water treatment waste sludge is primarily CaCOa. The amount of cooling water treatment waste is very small, compared to the bottom ash and flue gas sludge. Dry solid waste produced by power plants is primarily fly ash composed of oxides of aluminum, silicon, and iron. The water in the effluent stream accounts for 6 percent of the total water requirements of each power plant. Dissolved and wet solids are sent to evaporative holding ponds and later ^emineralization is a method of preparing water for use in boilers producing an effluent composed of chemicals present in the source water. The bottom ash stream is the water used to remove bottom ash from the boiler. Bottom ash removal is done via a wet sluicing system using cooling tower blowdown water. Thus, the dis- solved solids content of that stream is composed of chemicals from the ash and cooling water. 204 ------- TABLE 4-16: EFFLUENTS FROM COAL CONVERSION PROCESS AT KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE' FACILITY Electric Power (3000 MWe) SOLIDS (tons per day) DISSOLVED 73.5 WET 8,368 DRY 1,274 TOTAL 9,715.5 WATER IN EFFLUENT0 (acre-feet per year) 1,898.9 MWe = megawatt-electric o These data are from Radian Corporation. The Assessment of Residuals Disposal for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States, EPA Contract No. 60-01-1916. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corpora- tion, 1978. The Radian Corporation report extends and is based on earlier analyses conducted by Water Purification Associates and reported in Gold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977 These values are given for a day when the facility is operating at full load. In order to obtain yearly values, these numbers must be multiplied by 365 days and by the average load factor which is assumed to be 70 percent for power plants. The values given as solids do not include the weight of the water in which the solids are suspended or dissolved. Q The values for water discharged are annual and take into account the load fac- tor. In order to obtain daily water discharge rate for a day when the facility is operating at full load, divide the yearly value by 365 days and by the load factor of 70 percent. The 1,898.9 acre-feet per year are equivalent to 1.7 million gallons per day. deposited in landfills. Dry solids are treated with water to pre- vent dusting and deposited in a landfill.1 4.3.4 Impacts This section describes water impacts which result from the underground mines, limestone quarries, and two 3,000 MWe power plants and from a scenario which includes construction of these facilities according to the hypothesized scenario schedule. The water requirements and impacts associated with expected population increases are also included in the scenario impact description. environmental problems associated with solid waste dis- posal in holding ponds and landfills are discussed in Chapter 10. 205 ------- A. Underground Mine and Limestone Quarry Impacts The construction and operation of an underground coal mine impact both groundwater and surface water. Construction of the mine openings may intersect some of the perched aquifers contained in the coal formation. As mining proceeds and mines are expanded, additional perched aquifers will be intersected. As a result, the groundwater flow patterns of these aquifers will be disrupted and local springs and seeps, important as water supplies for wildlife in the area, may dry up. To the extent that subsidence occurs, the resulting fractures in the overburden may, in turn, further disrupt the flow in perched aquifers. A potential effect of such flow disruption is the mixing of water from fresh and saline aqui- fers . Runoff during mine operation is expected to be higher than during preconstruction conditions, and mine subsidence may change the patterns of surface drainage. This, in turn, affects wild- life and livestock watering locations. The mining activities associated with one power plant will consume from 1,800 to 3,300 acre-feet of water per year. While this is not a large quantity relative to the requirements of the power plant, it nevertheless would not be available for other uses. After mining ceases, there will be continuing surface topo- graphic changes due to subsidence, and the land that has been tem- porarily revegetated (with application of water in excess of nat- ural rainfall) may lose vegetation and erode. The limestone quarry required for one power plant will require about 2 acre-feet of water per year. While groundwater is assumed to be the source of this water, its use may conflict with existing local water rights. Blasting disrupts groundwater flow and may cause nearby springs to dry up. Ponds created by quarry operations may trap surface water rather than release it to the surface streams in the area, resulting in reduced flows. B. Power Plant Impacts Construction activities at a power plant site will remove vegetation and disturb the soil. These activities affect surface water quality by increasing the sediment load in local runoff. This sediment loading of local creeks will be temporary, however, since retention facilities will trap runoff and direct it into the evaporation ponds after the plant begins operating. The equipment used during construction will require maintenance areas and petro- leum products storage facilities. Areas for the storage of other construction-related materials, such as aggregate for a concrete batch plant, will also be required. All of these facilities con- stitute potential sources of contaminants in runoff. Runoff 206 ------- control methods call for channeling runoff from all of these sources to a holding pond for settling, reuse, and evaporation. Because the supply of water to this pond is intermittent, most of the water will probably evaporate. Water that does not evaporate may be used for dust control. At the Kaiparowits site, the aggregate used in construction will come from alluvium that is also part of the shallow aquifer in the upper Wahweap Creek Canyon. Removal of that aggregate will reduce the storage capacity of the aquifer by approximately 200 acre-feet and create a pond, which may discharge into Wahweap Creek. Evaporative water loss from this pond will decrease the downstream groundwater supply. The likelihood of contamination of both the groundwater and surface water will be increased by livestock and wildlife use of the pond. Electric generating facilities at both Kaiparowits and Escalante will cover land normally a part of the natural ground- water recharge system. Each plant will remove about 240 acres from natural runoff contributions, because of runoff control de- vices around critical areas and losses by catchments such as ponds, Removal of this amount of land will reduce recharge capacity by 48 acre-ft/yr which is about 0.12 percent of the total recharge capacity in the Kaiparowits Plateau.1 Fuel tanks at both sites will be surrounded by a berm de- signed to contain spills. In the event of a spill, fuel oil will saturate the ground within the bermed area and the soluble frac- tions could eventually enter the perched groundwater system and come out in unknown concentrations in springs and seeps. A 65 acre emergency reservoir at each site will be lined to reduce natural pond leakage. Some leakage will occur and enter the groundwater system where it will recharge the local perched aquifers and provide additional water to downstream seeps and springs. Some increased erosion of creek banks could occur where the water supply pipelines bridge creek beds. This impact can be avoided if banks are stabilized. Some additional creek bed ero- sion might occur due to increased pressure at the pipeline bridges during flood flows. As noted previously, most of the water used by each power plant complex will come from Lake Powell. As indicated in Table 4-15, each 3,000 MWe plant (high wet cooled) will use more than ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Final Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed Kaiparowits Pro- ject, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976. 207 ------- 29,800 acre-ft/yr, equivalent to 2.2 percent of Utah's share of the Upper Colorado River allocation. Since it is either consumed, evaporated in the cooling tower, or ponded, withdrawal of the water will, of course, mean that this water will no longer be available to other users in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). The evaporation ponds are used as a final disposal site for the natural salts that occur in the power plant water supply and thus in its effluent. Concentration of salts in these ponds will be high, approximately 100,000 to 200,000 mg/£. Thus, as these salts infiltrate through the pond liner into the groundwater sys- tem, they might, depending upon quantities and aquifer character- istics , raise the TDS of the water and make the water unfit for consumption by humans and, possibly, for livestock and wildlife as well. Springs and seeps fed by this contaminated groundwater could subsequently affect surface-water systems. Water leaching from the ash disposal pond could enter the surface water system by migrating laterally along the low per- meability mudstone to the canyon walls. As noted earlier, this water will contain trace toxic materials. The concentrations that reach the surface water are presumed small, but the trans- port mechanism for some of these materials through groundwater is unknown. There will be no significant local surface water impacts directly from plant effluents because there will be no off-site discharge of effluents. The surface water flow volume to local streams will be reduced slightly as rainfall is trapped in the on-site waste retention ponds and by the associated runoff reten- tion facilities. After the plants are decommissioned, these ponds will remain. Unless the berms around the ponds are properly maintained, they may lose their protective vegetation, erode, and breach. Subse- quently, the materials within the pond site will erode and enter the groundwater and surface water systems. Although Lake Powell is the original source of the salt materials in the evaporation ponds, the eventual reentry of the salt to the lake could affect local bottom organisms if salt concentrations are sufficiently high. Similarly, the addition of trace materials and solids from the ash disposal and tailings ponds can have an adverse effect. C. Scenario Impacts This section discusses water impacts that may occur because of interactions between the two power plants and those that result as the population increases according to the manpower demands of the construction-operation schedule. 208 ------- Table 4-17 shows the water requirements of the population expected if both plants are built. An estimated 10,753 acre- feet of water will be needed annually for the new town. This un- usually high water demand is caused by the new town development plan which calls for extensive greenbelts and park facilities to attract necessary personnel to the area.2 Rural water demands will be met by individual wells that pro- bably will not significantly affect the local aquifer. Municipal water requirements will be supplied by groundwater pumped from a well field in the Navajo Sandstone. Most of this withdrawal will probably be from bank storage of Lake Powell, so this source should be as reliable as the water supply of the lake. If it can be demonstrated that the groundwater used is part of Lake Powell bank storage,3 the water will be considered Colorado River water and may be subject to the legal constraints of the applicable compacts. Also, existing local groundwater users could be affected by the new town's well field. These legal conflicts would have to be resolved before a new water right could be issued. It is assumed that the rural population will use individual on-site waste disposal facilities (septic tanks and drainfields) and that waste treatment facilities will be required in urban areas. The wastewater generated by the population increase expec- ted if both power plants are built is shown in Table 4-18. Current treatment practices in Escalante and Panguitch con- sist entirely of septic tanks and drainage fields. Kanab has a two stage 0.2 million gallon per day (MMgpd) trickling filter oper- ating at about 0.17 MMgpd. As a result of the increased popula- tions, it is likely that municipal sewage treatment facilities will need to be built in Escalante and Panguitch as well as the new town. New facilities should use best practicable waste treatment tech- nologies in order to conform to 1983 standards and should allow recycling or zero discharge of pollutants to meet 1985 goals.1 The 1985 standard could be met by using effluents for industrial process make up water or for irrigating local farmland. Population increases from secondary industries are not in- cluded in these estimates. 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Final Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed Kaiparowits Pro- ject, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976. 3Some water migrates into the banks of the lake and is stored there, hence the term "bank storage." ^Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, Pub. L. 92-500, 86 Stat. 816 § 101, 301; 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976). 209 ------- TABLE 4-17: EXPECTED WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR INCREASED POPULATION INCREASED WATER REQUIREMENT ABOVE 1975 LEVEL (acre-feet per year) YEAR3 1980 1990 2000 KANABa 21.0 63.0 70.0 PANGUITCHb 17.5 105.0 140.0 ESCALANTE3 7.0 567.0 588.0 PAGE3 84 476 574 KAIPAROWITS NEW TOWN0 1,770 10,266 10,753 Based on 125 gallons per capita per day. Based on 313 gallons per capita per day - Panguitch City Clerk. °Based on 790 gallons per capita per day (approximately 125 gallons per capita per day for domestic use; 665 gallons per capita per day for greenbelt irrigation). TABLE 4-18: EXPECTED WASTEWATER FLOWS FROM INCREASED POPULATION INCREASED FLOW ABOVE 1975 LEVEL3 (million gallons per day) YEAR 1980 1990 2000 KANAB 0.015 0.045 0.050 PANGUITCH 0.005 0.030 0.040 ESCALANTE 0.005 0.410 0.420 PAGE 0.27 0.66 0.73 KAIPAROWITS NEW TOWN 0.05 1.16 1.22 1Based on 100 gallons per capita per day. (1) To 1980 Between the present and 1980, most activity will be centered on construction related to opening the first coal mines and the limestone quarry. Construction of the power plant and new town will also begin during this period. However, most urban growth during this period will be absorbed by existing communities, and local groundwater systems will not be affected significantly. As Table 4-17 indicates, additional demands on surface-water supplies 210 ------- are small. As Table 4-18 indicates, wastewater flows will increase as a result of population increases from construction activities. Existing facilities at Kanab should not be overloaded by this in- crease. Some surface water pollution may result from overloads and/or bypasses unless existing wastewater treatment facilities are expanded or new facilities built. (2) To 2000 Both power plants will be constructed and in operation by 1990. In addition, ancillary activities, including coal mines and quarries, will be in full operation. The projected new town will also be built and occupied. These activities and facilities have several potential impacts on groundwater and surface water. No additional facilities are postulated beyond 1990; consequently, water impacts are assumed to remain the same for 1990 to 2000. Combined mining activities will consume from 3,650 to 6,650 acre-feet of water per year and the power plants will consume about 59,600 acre-ft/yr assuming they are high wet cooled (see Table 4-13). For perspective, this is equivalent to about 2.2 percent of Utah's share of the Upper Colorado River allocation. It will not, of course, be available to other users in the UCRB. In addition, removal of quantities in this range from Lake Powell may have a salt-concentrating effect on the Colorado River. The Bureau of Reclamation (BuRec) estimates that salt increase caused by a project of similar size would be as much as 2.1 mg/£ at Imperial Dam. This increase would affect the agricultural users of the water through lower crop yields, causing an estimated an- nual loss of $230,000 per mg/£ of salt increases.1 The combination of both plants will remove about 480 acres from natural runoff contributions because of runoff control devices around critical areas and losses by catchments such as ponds. Re- moval of this amount of land will reduce recharge capacity by 96 acre-ft/yr which is about 0.25 percent of the total recharge in the Kaiparowits Plateau area.2 The Kaiparowits new town will be located over a part of the recharge area of the Navajo Sandstone aquifer. Total sewage from the proposed new town will be approximately 1.22 MMgpd. Sewer pipes xUtah State University, Utah Water Research Laboratory. Colo- rado River Regional Assessment Study, Part 1, Executive Summary, Basin Profile and Report Digest, for National Commission on Water Quality. Logan, Utah: Utah Water Research Laboratory, 1975, p. 2. 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Final Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed Kaiparowits Pro- ject, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976. 211 ------- to collect the raw sewage will be placed in the permeable sandstone above the aquifer, and leaks in the pipes could result in ground- water pollution. If the solid waste disposal site for the new town is placed on the recharge zone, additional pollution could take place unless special precautions are taken. As noted earlier, under present law, effluents from the sewage treatment plant may discharge to surface water until 1985. Effluents from the sewage treatment plant are assumed to be used in irrigated agriculture after 1985. If the treatment facility is operated properly, there should be no significant pollution from this practice. Runoff will be increased by the construction of the new town by about 1,100 acre-ft/yr. This water will enter Wahweap Creek during storm flows and subsequently flow into Lake Powell. Local water sources, such as springs and seeps, will be used in the construction of access roads and highways. This activity will require virtually all the water available from these sources. Highways and roads will increase runoff during storms with the increased volume likely to drain into Lake Powell. (3) After 2000 After the plants are decommissioned, the facilities will re- main even though they are not operating. The potential impacts discussed earlier for each mine-power plant complex are compounded by the presence of two complexes. Two impact types are particu- larly important in this postoperational phase: subsidence and pond dike failure. Subsidence over the underground mines will cause continuing topographic changes. Erosion of the pond dikes and subsequent release of salts and trace materials constitutes a water pollution hazard over long time periods. 4.3.5 Summary of Water Impacts Water impacts are caused by: (1) the water requirements of and effluents from the energy facilities; (2) the water require- ments of and wastewater generated by associated population in- creases; and (3) the coal mining process itself. Assuming the power plants are high wet cooled, the total sur- face water requirement for each plant will be 29,800 acre-ft/yr. In combination, the surface water demand from Lake Powell, which has an average annual release of 8.25 million acre-ft/yr, could be as high as 59,600 acre-ft/yr. The use of intermediate wet cooling could reduce this demand by 69 percent. During the life- time of the power plants, the use of water from Lake Powell will increase downstream salinity. 212 ------- Effluents from each power plant averaging 1.7 MMgpd containing 9,700 tons of solids will be discharged into clay-lined, on-site evaporative holding ponds. Ponds may leak and increase the infil- tration of pollutants from the ponds to the local groundwater. The groundwater requirement for the new town and other urban and rural development could be as high as 12,000 acre-ft/yr, assuming both complexes are built. The water used for municipal supplies may be reused as irrigation water. The increased popu- lation will cause wastewater increases, totaling 2.5 MMgpd by 2000. The scenario municipalities which will probably require new treatment facilities are Escalante, Panguitch, and the new town. The underground mining of 22.4 million tons of coal per year (the amount required by both power plants) will likely cause un- planned subsidence which will in turn affect surface water drain- age and may affect groundwater flow patterns. Changes in natural flow in springs and seeps may change watering patterns for wild- life and livestock. Changes in runoff flows will occur as a re- sult of vegetation removal, construction activities, and the facilities themselves. An increase in runoff is projected but it will vary seasonally and from year to year. The physical impacts caused by the power plants and the facil- ities associated with them will remain after the plants are de- commissioned. The subsidence effects, caused by underground mining discussed above, are irreversible. The limestone quarry will re- main at the end of operations and will likely be filled with water during some period of the year. The alternative is a costly re- contouring of the quarry site. More important is the ultimate destruction of the dikes around the evaporative holding ponds which contain the salt, ash, trace materials, and scrubber sludge. The likelihood of berm failure could be reduced if the dikes are maintained, the contents are removed to a leakproof container, or the ponds are drained, covered with soil, and revegetated.l Main- tenance of the dikes will not eliminate pond leakage, however, and this is another potential long-term source of pollution. Pond liners will retard leakage but will not prevent it. Over the life of the plant, materials in the pond should not leach beyond the outer boundary of the liner. However, materials are likely, eventually, to leach through the liner and into the soil below.2 1 In some locations, it may be difficult to stabilize the areas that have been refilled. 2The environmental problems associated with solid waste dis- posal in holding ponds and landfills are discussed in Chapter 10. 213 ------- 4.4 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS 4.4.1 Introduction As described above, the hypothetical development for Kaiparo- wits/Escalante will occur in two counties of southern Utah: Gar- field and Kane. Both are sparsely populated at present, but energy development will change this. Large numbers of workers, same with families, will begin to move into the area when construction of the energy facilities begins. The establishment of a new town near Glen Canyon City is part of the overall development in this scenario. The social and economic impacts that can be anticipated will result either directly or indirectly from the rapid population increase that will follow. 4.4.2 Existing Conditions Kane and Garfield Counties comprise 9,201 square miles and in 1974 had a combined population of approximately 6,600 people. This is a density of 0.7 persons per square mile. Few roads serve the area, and many of these are unpaved or unimproved. No railroads or airlines presently serve the two-county area. Thus, the Kaiparowits Plateau is generally inaccessible, and any heavy vehicle traffic would require substantial highway improvement and construction. Except for a recent increase, mainly in Kane County (Table 4-19), the population of the area has been static or declining for most of the past 35 years. The increase in Kane County appears to be related to the Navajo power plant just south of Glen Canyon City and may be temporary.1 Only the county seat of each county has a population over 1,000, Kanab in Kane County and Panguitch in Garfield County. Both towns are located in the extreme western part of their respec- tive counties. Very few people actually live in the Kaiparowits Plateau por- tion of the two counties. In fact, fewer than 700 people lived in Kane County outside of established towns (Table 4-19). Ethnically, the area is quite homogenous; there is no black population and less than 1 percent are Indians. As is common in areas of the U.S. in which population is declining, young adults have tended to leave to seek economic opportunities elsewhere. 1Wistisen, M.J., and G.T. Nelson. Kaiparowits Socio-Economic Study. Provo, Utah: Brigham Young University, Center for Business and Economic Research, 1973, p. 44. 214 ------- TABLE 4-19: POPULATION OF KANE AND GARFIELD COUNTIES AND COUNTY SEATS, 1940-1974 LOCATION Kane County Kanab Other towns Garfield County Panguitch Other towns Two County Total 1940 2,561 5,253 7,814 1950 2,299 4,151 1,435 6,450 1960 2,667 1,645 737 3,577 1,318 1,856 6,244 1970 2,421 1,381 661 3,157 1,318 1,570 5,578 1974a 3,300 1,550 700 3,300 1,350 1,600 6,600 Source: University of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Estimated. Net outmigration from Kane and Garfield Counties between 1960 and 1970 was 1,507 people.1 Table 4-20 shows the distribution of employment by industry in the two counties. The local economy of the Kaiparowits area is oriented more toward government, wholesale and retail trade, and services than is the national average. This is primarily because of tourist attractions in the area (including several national forests and parks) and a lack of major activity in other economic sectors. Agricultural activities in the area consist mainly of sheep and cattle production. Per capita income in the two-county area remains less than 80 percent of the Utah average, itself only 82 percent of the U.S. average.2 The Kaiparowits area was settled largely by Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints (Mormon) immigrants from other parts of Utah. Mormons still constitute the single largest religious group in the area.3 Bowles, Gladys K., Calvin L. Beale, and Everett S. Lee. Net Migration of the Population, 1960-70 by Age, Sex, and Color, Part 6: Western States. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of Agri- culture, Economic Research Service, 1975, pp. 74-75. 2Kiholm, Janet. "Personal Income in Utah 1970-75." Utah Economic and Business Review, Vol. 36 (June 1976), pp. 1-6. 3Dotson, John L. "Duel in the Sun." Newsweek (October 27, 1975), p. 10. 215 ------- Residents of the area are apparently overwhelmingly in favor of energy development. Southern Utah has lagged behind the rest of the state economically, and residents would like an opportunity to catch up — which is what energy development in this area seems to offer.1 Further, economic opportunities would both help to keep the young people from leaving southern Utah and to allow relatives and friends to return. Both Kane and Garfield Counties are governed by three-member boards of commissioners. Governmental services in these counties are limited; law enforcement is provided by two full-time law officers in each county. Both counties are serviced by joint city/county volunteer fire departments. Kane County has a planning commission, but Garfield County does not. Both counties have a master plan, and although only Kane County currently has a zoning ordinance, one is being drafted for Garfield County. Public edu- cation is provided by a single school district in each county. Public health services in Kane County include maintenance of a 31-bed hospital in Kanab; a 28-bed county hospital is now under construction in Panguitch to replace the old 16-bed facility there. Physicians are not available elsewhere in the two counties. Panguitch is governed by a mayor and five councilmen. Two full-time policemen provide law enforcement, and the joint city/ county volunteer fire department provides fire protection. Cur- rently, the city has neither a professional city engineer nor a planner. However, the city owns and operates a water system and has a zoning ordinance . Kanab, the seat of Kane County government, has a mayor and five councilmen. It employs three full-time policemen and, like Panguitch, participates in a joint volunteer fire department ar- rangement with the county. Unlike Panguitch, Kanab has a licensed city engineer. It does not have a professional planner, but the city does have a zoning ordinance. Kanab has both a city-owned and operated water and sewage treatment system, and an expansion to the water system is now underway. The other incorporated com- munities in the two counties have no municipal water or sewer systems . Overall, Kane and Garfield Counties and the two small towns of Kanab and Panguitch appear to lack the resources necessary to deal effectively with energy development in the area. However, the counties have been attempting to upgrade their capabilities, particularly in planning. Both counties and their county seats also participate in Utah's system for intergovernmental planning U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Manage- ment. Final Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols . Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Manage- ment, 1976, pp. A-710 to A-726. 216 ------- TABLE 4-20: EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION IN KAIPAROWITS AREA, 1974 INDUSTRY Total Civilian Work Force Total Employed Agriculture Mining Contract Construction Manufacturing Transportation and Public Utilities Wholesale and Retail Trade Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Service and Miscellaneous Government All Other Nonagriculture Total Unemployed KANE COUNTY 1,260 1,170 100 20 15 60 10 200 25 150 200 310 90a GARFIELD COUNTY 1,430 1,210 110 20 15 200 50 135 20 190 310 150 220b Source: University of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business Research. 7.1 percent. 15.4 percent. cooperation.1 They also participate in the Kaiparowits Planning and Development Advisory Council which Governor Calvin L. Rampton established by executive order in August 1974.2 The council was established to guide and coordinate activities related to energy development in Kane and Garfield Counties. 4.4.3 Factors Producing Impacts Two factors dominate as the cause of social and economic im- pacts: the manpower requirements of energy facilities and the taxes levied on energy facilities. Tax rates are tied to capital costs, and/or the value of coal extracted, and/or the value of energy produced. Taxes which apply to the scenario facilities ^his system is described in 4.4.4. 2The executive order is reprinted in U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Final Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976, pp. A-259 to A-260. 217 ------- TABLE 4-21: MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR ONE 3,000 MEGAWATT POWER PLANT AND ASSOCIATED COAL MINEa YEAR PROM J. r\v_/i7i START 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE MINE 0 22 154 305 507 816 573 107 0 POWER PLANT 0 40 420 907 1,315 2,065 2,545 1,990 720 0 OPERATION WORK FORCE MINE 0 749 1,502 3,002 3,000 3,000 POWER PLANT 0 109 109 212 436 436 TOTAL IN AMY (YMF -rVLN -1 ^1N I-j YEAR 0 40 442 1,061 1,620 2,572 3,361 3,421 2,433 3,214 3,436 3,436 MWe - megawatt-electric aData are for a 3,000 MWe power plant and an underground coal mine large enough to supply that power plant (about 11.2 million tons per year) and are from Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corpora- tion7 1975, data uncertainty is -10 to +20 percent. hypothesized for Kaiparowits/Escalante are a property tax, sales tax, and royalty payments on federally owned coal. Table 4-21 gives the manpower requirements of a 3,000 MWe power plant and an underground coal mine large enough to supply that power plant with coal. Note that manpower requirements for the operation of an underground coal mine exceed the peak construc- tion requirements by 4 times, while the reverse is true for the power plant (peak construction manpower requirements exceed opera- tion requirements). As a result, the manpower requirements for a combination underground coal mine-power plant build steadily; the maximum number of workers are employed during operation and no construction peak occurs. The property tax and sales tax, which are tied to the capital costs of the facilities, and royalty payments, which are tied to the value of coal, generate revenue. The capital costs of one power plant and mine are given in Table 4-22. The total cost of one plant-mine combination is about 1,575 million 1975 dollars. Property tax, most of which goes to local government, is levied on 218 ------- TABLE 4-22: CAPITAL RESOURCES REQUIRED FOR CONSTRUCTION OF FACILITIES (in millions of 1975 dollars)3 FACILITY Power Plant 3,000 MWe Underground Coal Mine 11.2 MMtpy MATERIALS AND EQUIPMENT 461 118 LABOR AND MISCELLANEOUS 461 72 INTEREST AND CONSTRUCTION 394 71 TOTAL 1,316 261 MWe = megawatt-electric MMtpy = million tons per year Data are adjusted assuming linearity to correspond to the facility size hypo- thesized in the scenario (a 3,000 MWe power plant with a 11.3 MMtpy mine) and are from Carrasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975. At 10 percent per year. the cash value of the facility (approximately the total capital cost given in Table 4-22) after construction of the facility is completed. Sales tax, most of which goes to the state government, is levied on materials and equipment only (Table 4-22) as the ma- terials and equipment are purchased during construction. The cur- rent sales tax rate in Utah is 4.75 percent, of which 4 percent goes to the state and 0.75 percent goes to the local government. The property tax rate is 1.82 percent in Kane County and 1.68 percent in Garfield County.1 State and local governments also receive 50 percent of the royalty payment, which is 12.5 percent of the value of federally owned coal.2 4.4.4 Impacts The nature and extent of the social and economic impacts caused by these factors depend on the size and character of the community or communities in which workers and their families live, on the state and local tax structure, and on many other social and economic factors. A scenario, which calls for two power plant complexes to be developed according to a specified time schedule (see Table 4-1), is used here as the vehicle through which the •'This is the effective, average property• tax rate. The actual rate is computed using a number of assessment ratios, since certain kinds of equipment (e.g., pollution control equipment) are taxed at different rates or may be exempt. 2This is the federal government's target rate; actual rates will vary from mine to mine. 219 ------- TABLE 4-23: CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION EMPLOYMENT FOR KAIPAROWITS SCENARIO, 1975-2000a YEAR 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 to 2000 FACILITY #1 (KAIPAROWITS SITE) CONSTRUCTION 40 440 1,060 1,670 2,570 3,360 2,560 830 0 OPERATION 0 430 740 1,480 2,970 2,970 2,970 2,970 2,970 2,970 2,970 FACILITY #2 (ESCALANTE SITE) CONSTRUCTION 0 40 440 1,060 1,670 2,570 3,360 2,560 830 0 OPERATION 0 430 740 1,480 2,970 2,970 2,970 Source: Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model 2 vols. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975. aAbout 20-25 percent of construction and 80 percent of operation employment is attributable to the coal mining activity alone. nature and extent of the impacts are explored. The discussion relates each impact type to the hypothetical scenario and includes population impacts, housing and school impacts, economic impacts, fiscal impacts, social and cultural impacts, and political and governmental impacts. A. Population Impacts Most of the social and economic impacts in the Kaiparowits/ Escalante scenario will result from population increases, initially during construction and later during operation of the facilities. Construction of the first power plant was to have begun in 1975 and will extend into 1983. The direct employment projections used to evaluate population changes are shown in Table 4-23. 220 ------- Population projections are shown in Table 4-24.l They indicate that Page, Arizona will attract the majority of the growth early in the development. Established schools and services in Page will attract many people, especially families with children. A 75 percent increase in size (to 10,440) is expected by 1980, after which only minor population changes should occur (Table 4-24). Kane County is expected to triple in population by 1983, after which growth will be gradual. Much of the increase should take place in the new town, where 2,000 people will live by 1979 and 6,500 by 1984. Kanab can expect a 40-percent increase by 1980; roadside sprawl of trailer homes is likely in the Glen Canyon City area, where the present population of about 20 will grow to 110 by 1980. Garfield County will receive only minor impacts from the first mine and power plant development located to the south. However, after construction begins near Escalante in 1980, population will increase considerably. Between 1980 and 1987, when construction is completed, a 240-percent increase in the county population is expected, most of it at Escalante (11,000 population in 1987) but much of it also in and around the small towns along Utah Highway 12 (Table 4-25) . Age-sex distributions of population were estimated from 1970 data for Kane and Garfield Counties and age distributions of em- ployees and family members from recent surveys in the West.2 Page, Arizona, was assumed to have a structure similar to southern Utah. As it typical, the relative number of males is expected to be greatest during construction (1980-1985), and the proportion of the population in the 20-35 age group remains higher due to em- ployment opportunities (Table 4-26). Population changes were projected using economic base analy- sis, the data in Table 4-23, employment multipliers, and population multipliers. The employment multipliers used for the construction phase increased from 0.2 to 0.4 and, for the operation phase, from 0.2 to 0.5. The population/employee multipliers used were 2.2 for construction and 3.0 for operation. An average of 80 percent of the new employees in the area were assumed to be from outside the local area, a figure which may be high early in the development but which should be a reasonable average. A community choice model based on a town's population and distance from facility sites was used to allocate populations to towns in the area. The community choice model is described in Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976, pp. 90-97. The assumed new town was allocated 500 people a priori in 1977 and 1978, after which its population changes also were subject to the model. The new town is assumed to be an incorporated community rather than a company town. 2Ibid. 221 ------- w H B H K P O U w o < CM eg o PH O O O Cn CN I w m W r- EH en EH >H en EH W K D S O O U H EH W o 2 o C3 Z O W O rJ o w 53 g H 1 PO ^^ 2 ^^ o N H •s td O PL, Ed O O O O O O O O CO i— I O -H NO NO en co -d- m u~i I--- r~- o m o o o o o CO O^ ooooooooooo cocoromr^.r-(oa>oocovo r^OO-— lr-Hi— If-Hi-Hr— (i— \|O4 ooooooooooo CNe^vDI — 00 ON •— 1 VD rH OOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOO i~H »— 1 i— It— liHrHrHrHCNCN i— li— li— li— IrHrHrHrHrHr— 1 ONONONONONONONONONONO rHrHrHrHiHrHrHrHrHrHCNl 1 O >, 1 QJ rH -H & rH 4J X eg to QJ 3 QJ C QJ C QJ 43 eg 42 4-1 TJ 4-1 rH G - 3 QJ CO O o C ej to O Q) -H 42 a 4-> o & -H LO S 42 O CO CO CO T3 eg C C 0 eg eg «H 4-1 1 ' O eg »H ON T3 ^ ON (2 rH T3 O C2 0 42 eg 60 MH 300 0 -H to H 4-i 42 eg C 4J (2 QJ QJ O >-, cj S-i rH CO QJ rH &, efl QJ 3 42 LO C 4-J CN C eg C2 4-> QJ 3 4-J > O C -H 43 QJ C) eg ej r-1 V-H QJ • -H pt , ^rj ^ r^ QJ 4-1 OO 4-1 -rl • eg ^ O !-J O QJ M-l fl. J-l O t-i eg o to o QJ QJ G rH CO -H 43 eg eg QJ QJ 4-J to V-i o eg QJ C 42 •H >-l 4-1 QJ rH 4-1 G eg M-i -H V-i eg 3 QJ CO 4-J !-l QJ • eg QJ 4-1 T) 13 42 eg QJ eg 4_) g 4J )_i QJ JJ O CL, O •1 — ) CC ^> eg 55 QJ PJ 4J f~\| 4J •H T3 QJ 4J eg •H u o to en eg C • o *o •H r- 4-1 ON eg rH rH 3 60 cx G O -H a. to 3 6 ^J o V-i O MH O O QJ " C rH •H I — 1 rQ U C QJ cd 'O LO eg r-- ON QJ rH T3 3 60 •H G O -H G S-i •H 3 ^3 CO QJ O 4J 0 eg 0 S ** •H CN 4-1 CO MH QJ O Q) 4-1 60 C eg eg P-l rH 43 CX 222 ------- O o o CN I in r- en O U Q J H w H EH H O U w EH EH 03 W EH 3 O ft m CN I W A m < EH a EH EH W K EH O W Q KH- £3 O PQ ffi U EH 1-H D CJ 1 ft W r5 1^1 ^ H H K H ffi U ft O PH EH W H £> J2 0 U W EH £3 J < O W « rt] W >H o o oo ro o 0 VD o en o r^ oo rH O m rH o 00 oo o rH rH O m VD m r~ en rH o •^r oo o o vo o en o CN •^ rH o VD rH o r~ ro o CN rH O 00 vo VD r^- en rH o in r^ OO o rH VD O O rH 0 CN in rH 0 en rH O oo ^ o in rH 0 m r^ r~ r~- en rH o o T O en CN oo ^r 0 O rH CN VD VO O O 0 rH rH rH O O en r-~ in vo rH rH 0 O i~H ^J* CN CN O O r~ oo •r m o o r- en rH rH O O en ^r c-~ oo oo en r- r- cn en rH r-H 0 0 rH en in o 3* in O 0 CN oo VD VO 0 O rH CN rH rH O O r*** ^^ r~ oo rH rH O O r- oo eN CN o o rH ^T VD VD 0 0 ro oo eN CN 0 0 o en en oo rH O rH 00 00 en en rH rH o o O rH o oo vo r^ o o 3* ^r vo vo 0 0 oo 3 rH rH O 0 0 rH oo en rH rH O 0 en oo CN OO O 0 rC CN vo r~^ O 0 oo r- CN CN o o r^. o (N 00 CN 00 eN oo 00 00 en en rH rH 0 0 oo in CN CO O CN rH rH 0 0 in m vo vo 0 O VD r~ rH rH 0 0 ^F O en o rH CN 0 O vo o oo oo o o en CN r^ co o o en H CN 00 o o ^ o o vo vo eo rj< m oo oo en en rH rH o o o r^ 00 ^J* oo in rH rH 0 O VO VD VD VD 0 O r-~ oo rH rH 0 O eN in 0 0 CN CN 0 O en o oo ^j* o o 3< VO 00 CO O 0 CN CN 00 OO O O 0 O •r o en i-H rH vo r- 00 00 en en rH rH 0 0 00 OO 0 rH ? ^ rH rH O 0 r^ r~ VD VD O 0 i — r^ rH rH O O Tf VD O 0 CN CN O 0 O O ^ ^ 0 O in m 00 00 O 0 CN CN OO OO o o oo vo in vo en en oo en 00 00 en en rH rH o m CN ? rH O 00 VD O r- rH O 00 o CN O 0 ^f O vo 00 o oo oo 0 oo r- cn o en en rH o o rH T vo en ^r ^r rH rH O 0 O CN r^ r^ o o 00 00 rH rH O 0 oo oo H rH CN CN O O rH CN 3 ^J1 O 0 00 O oo en 0 O OO T 00 OO o o 00 O en CN en o rH in o en o en o rH CN CO QJ •P (0 >i g rH -H rH 4-> CO W 3 OJ c C (1) m A -P -P & •* 0) CO o c H O Q) -H ft-P a m g . 3 . O CO CO CO C Ti ft) O C -H fd m -P -P -H o to TS en 13 c en O rH T3 O tP rH 3 O Q) o -H A; V i li . j—j -p c cu m >i O O rH CO rH -P cd cu fi d x! cu c -P u C Vj CU fit -P > fi -H m (U O CN U n -p CU • 3 0jT3 O 0) G CO -H (U rd SH Q; cu rO U (0 CU G rH •H M X) rH 4J 4J (0 m ^ (0 CU S CU X! 4J M -P rd CU S X! G a -P -H 223 ------- TABLE 4-26,: AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION FOR PAGE AND KANE AND GARFIELD COUNTIES AGE GROUP Female 65 and over 55-64 35-54 25-34 20-24 17-19 14-16 6-13 0-5 Total Male 65 and over 55-64 35-54 25-34 20-24 17-19 14-16 6-13 0-5 Total 1975 .048 .051 .110 .053 .024 .024 .042 .098 .053 .503 .050 .054 .104 .048 .019 .026 .041 .100 .056 .498 1980 .020 .034 .102 .127 .045 .029 .023 .061 .041 .483 .021 .038 .110 .140 .049 .033 .022 .062 .042 .517 1985 .013 .025 .092 .151 .045 .030 .021 .065 .049 .491 .014 .027 .096 .158 .048 .032 .021 .065 .050 .509 1990-2000 .013 .021 .085 .156 .042 .029 .024 .074 .057 .501 .013 .022 .084 .155 .041 .029 .023 .074 .058 .499 B. Housing and School Impacts Housing and school enrollment impacts are obtained from popu- lation in the age structure estimates, assuming the age structure is the same throughout the area. The 6-13 age group is classified as elementary school age and the 14-16 age group is classified as secondary school age.l Housing demand is estimated from the pro- portion of the population which is male and 20 years of age and older. Estimates of housing demand are generally high during construc- tion and continue to rise slowly through 2000 (Table 4-27) . By 1980 in this scenario, Kane County will need over 1,700 new homes, 1 These assumptions and their resulting estimates are associated with perhaps a ± 25 percent error given the population estimates. 224 ------- TABLE 4-27: ESTIMATED HOUSING DEMAND IN KANE AND GARFIELD COUNTIES AND PAGE, 1975-2000 LOCATION Kane County New Town Page Garfield County Escalante 1975 910 0 1,650 910 180 1980 2,670 1,200 3,740 1,610 320 1985 3,790 2,290 3,880 4,430 2,950 1990 3,620 2,190 3,710 4,490 3,060 2000 3,800 2,300 3,900 4,710 3,210 1,200 at the new town site alone (Figure 4-6). Judging from other western energy development sites, at least half of these could be mobile homes. Garfield County is even more likely to have a large number of mobile homes, since the demand for housing in 1985 will be nearly five times the 1975 level (Figure 4-7). Escalante is the probable site for extensive mobile home location. Likewise, the expected growth of the very small towns in the area (Tables 4-24 and 4-25) will largely be accommodated by mobile homes. School enrollment projections in Table 4-28 are rather low until the 1980's because short-term construction personnel do not all bring families and because many of those who do bring children will probably choose to live in Page, which balances the enrollment decline after completion of the Navajo power plant. Still when the increased enrollment from Kaiparowits area impacts is balanced with the decline in population and enrollment from Navajo power plant, a net increase of only about 300 students by 1985 and 600 by 1990 is expected in Page. The impact of this approximate 30 percent increase in enroll- ment by 1985 on Page will be relatively slight compared to the im- pacts anticipated in Kane and Garfield Counties (Figure 4-8). The enrollment increase in these two counties will be more than 100 percent by 1990. Further, this increase will occur in a part of the area where, except for Escalante, school facilities are not currently available. The financial impacts associated with pro- viding education for this increased school-age population will be fountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976, p. 103. 225 ------- en T3 C tO [fi 3 O X! 4-1 4J c 0) rH iH O M C w \ w T3 rH o xi CU cn 3 o Households- County Total Households- New Town Elementary Secondary 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 4-6: ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IN KANE COUNTY, 1975-2000 226 ------- CO rd CO O 4-1 4J g i-H ,—I O w CO O CD CO O Households- County Total Households- Escalante Elementary Secondary 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 4-7: ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IN GARFIELD COUNTY, 1975-2000 227 ------- tn T3 £ rd U) o S-J c w ------- TABLE 4-28: ESTIMATED SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IN KANE AND GARFIELD COUNTIES AND PAGE SCHOOL Elementary Kane County Page Garfield County Secondary Kane County Page Garfield County 1975 650 1,190 650 270 500 270 1980 920 1,280 650 340 500 270 1985 1,440 1,470 1,680 460 500 540 1990 1,700 1,740 2,100 540 550 670 2000 1,780 1,830 2,200 570 580 700 felt primarily in Garfield County (Table 4-29) , although the lead time is somewhat longer there than for Kane County. Overall, about $14 million will be needed for schools in southern Utah because of the energy development and about $2.7 million in Page. C. Economic Impacts One of the most immediate local impacts from energy develop- ment in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area will be a change in income distribution both because energy and construction workers tend to earn relatively high incomes and because local residents will be able to fir.d employment in energy development or to establish re- tail businesses in the area. The income impact will be especially noticeable in southern Utah, where the per capita income is cur- rently less than 70 percent of the national average.1 In making the income distribution projections, the patterns recently found in currently affected energy resource communities in the West were adopted.2 The construction phase results in a 43 percent rise in median household income by 1985, including in- creased incomes for many long-time residents. This declines by ^.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Local Area Personal Income." Survey of Current Business, Vol. 54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75; Kiholm, Janet. "Personal Income in Utah 1907-1975." Utah Economic and Business Review, Vol. 36 (June 1976) , pp. 1-6. 2Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976, p. 50. 229 ------- W en CM I •r W J PQ < EH fj-j ^ M >~N £> en H M Hfrt VU «.-.! r-i \|\|1 KN , i w C m O1 ° K^r fT1 l-r, H C H 0 ^3 ^ 05 <~l pq iH P-i H 0 0 ^^ CT3 § OD F-t CO M rH £S O t3 ^9 "O Qj " w §."£ r4 H en -> o 4J O 0 »3 'd O r-l c_> cu •H CU 14-1 CU 0 H 60 cd cd cd M O PM O 4-1 • 4-1 f) , ^_\| e o 3 P- 4J CU CO Pi • " 00 o V CO C O^ n »^J U) (^ W Ctf -H J-l \& ''O r« C i w m i o^ Prf r-l • "-) 0 O «V •!-! r^ 4J p< cd cu o co 3 0 TJ !-> ta " > •H ctf P C 0 0 0 0 h en CD 13 cu 0 en cd ^ • j_j cu sd O 4J cd 0 PJ CU en g cu r— i [ •H M P, 3 M 1 fX O !-i co 0 •H O •U -H Cd 4-1 i— i cd 3 i— I 0 3 3 P O 0 cd PV 1— 1 cd 13 0 0 i-H O Cd r^ -H ON 60 CO i-H CU 4J Pi O •» cd CU r-l O 0 cd 0 •H S-J M M-4 CU M-l 13 O O CU -H 60 O 0 -w O CU -H O CU g en E O o CJ i-H 4J •H 0 O P. CU 3 a P, p. 0 0 O M i-H 4J CU Q) 60 p, ^ 0 CU •rf S ° 43 O CO CO CU cd •• o 3 o « 4J CO cu 3 cu O O Pd 0 43 cd cd r-i 0 cd rv. fs ^ H-4 J J 4J i — i cu cd 0 M& o cd O CU O en > cd co 0 J-> O 4-1 0 0 cd 0 CU & Oli C w p •H rJ M co 3 CO O O 'g « 'e 0 0 O O 0 O T) O CU O CO co CU cd o •U 43 .H 0 0 CU « O TJ i-i cn •H cd en cu •> CU >i rH !-l -H PU 43 O 0 0 cu cd 3 43 WO B 43 CJ> , , » o 1— 1 o U n 0) s CU M M M C O •H &t CU « i—l cd Q) 13 CU C •H CO CU •H 4-J •H C 3 \|3 O U 13 CU 4-J o cd a S M 4J C 1 a o i — i CU CU Q > M Q} 0 W 0 •H 111 W O 0 cd 4-i CO •H cn co ------- 1990 but will remain 24 percent above current levels (Table 4-30 and Figures 4-9 and 4-10). The principal changes in the Kane and Garfield County income distribution will be a large relative de- crease in low-income families and a predominance of families in the $15 - $25 thousand income range. A second major impact will be an expansion in secondary em- ployment, especially retailing. Any necessary industrial services are likely to be either provided within the mine-power plant com- plexes or imported from outside the Kaiparowits area. No other major industrial facilities are expected in the area from this scenario. Substantial increases in service employment to provide goods and services for the local population will be part of the overall impact of energy development. Because retail activities are market-oriented, their location is largely determined by the locations of customers and other businesses. Therefore, much of the early impact, at least through 1980, will occur at Page, where most energy workers will live and where businesses are already serving Navajo power plant workers and their families. However, much of the 1975-1980 impact on Page from Kaiparowits will have the effect of offsetting an economic decline during the phase-out of construction at the Navajo facility. Because of Page's current mix of goods and services and its importance to the southern Utah area before the Kaiparowits new town is built, a 75 percent in- crease in retail activity (based on the expected population in- crease) at Page is expected by 1990. The Kaiparowits new town and, to a lesser extent Escalante, will provide lower order (frequently purchased, often lower cost) goods and services, while higher order retail activities will be relatively more numerous at Page and, to some extent, Flagstaff. Activities in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area towns by the mid- 1980's are likely to include a bank, taverns, gas stations, food stores, restaurants, laundries, and probably clothing stores. However, no large-scale economic benefit to the Page and southern Utah area is likely to result because the goods purchased there will largely be manufactured and wholesaled outside the area. Flagstaff, Arizona, a rapidly growing city about 120 miles south of Page, is likely to benefit from increased wholesale activity. Salt Lake City and Phoenix should also benefit from increased wholesale and retail activity as well as from state sales and in- come tax receipts. Local government expenditures will generally be manageable except for Escalante. The Kaiparowits new town could plan to meet public expenditure demands by including the energy facilities in 231 ------- o o o ------- CO 25,000 and over 15,000- 24,999 12,000- 14,999 10,000- 11 , 999 8,000- 9,999 6,000- 7,999 4 ,000- 5,999 less than 4 , 000 076 .246 123 121 111 084 .075 163 •. f • 121 396 .119 077 048 046 091 (.« " . t '•t '•. • \ '.. *% . H 438 129 .106 078 040 043 065 .• .• / / / / ••' ..•' ..•* 063 383 132 114 092 089 051 076 • ••. 064 383 132 114 088 051 .076 I 064 383 132 114 091 .088 051 076 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 4-10: ESTIMATED ANNUAL INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR KANE AND GARFIELD COUNTIES, 1975-2000 233 ------- O o o CN I in r» en H -rH o ro I W ^ 0% u EH •> rH CN o EH * rH rH o en o en o Ocn 0 HH rH H O oo en O en o Q CM CN CN CN iH CN n M rO rH rH H rH rH rH H CN ^0 rj rj- ^ CN O O rH rH H rH rH rH rH rH H rH r- 00 CN rH rH rH r^ r- cri cn o\ rH O O O O O ^J1 00 O O> 00 CO CO ^ <* 00 CO 00 o o o o o o in VO rO rH rH rH r» ^t ^ m m in O O 0 0 0 0 ro rH in vo vo vr> C^ O CT> cr> en o rH rH rH rH rH CN CQ CU U H CQ 3 d 0 cu co U rd d O co cu -P g m cu r"1"" ^-j en rd rH CO O M d •H A to U g o d •H 1 0) CQ d CU (P -P -P CU • -P CU X -P O > M = (d O J2 ft-p (U O -P £ rd H Q) U •H > T> CU d co rd •> d ro rd en cu O O O CQ d O • • -H • -P U 3 rQ P-~ M •> -P d CQ O -H -P Ti CQ d g O CQ u rd d S H cu rd CQ -P H rH O rd tn ?d. d d cu -H -H co -H 4-1 O d O •H CU -P U rd M H >-! Q) MH CU ,X 4_\| fll ^1 o o o tn » d d •H o -P -H d -P •H rj CU M -P 4J CQ d d cu O g u U CQ f$ CQ (d H CU O S-i m o cu u O rH • rd A d U O H -H rd en cu cu CQ 04 cu 04 -P CQ -P (U CQ [5 '% 0) CO d -P d •P 0) rd T< •P co cu T! S-l d rd cu c •H -P I CO cu cu £d o g CU CQ rd d O d •H o -P -H H rd -P d o rd 4-) " d • d O O • S P s,a O M 4J (U CQ M -H rd Ti 234 ------- the Special Service Districts.1 Page already has the Navajo power plant in its property tax base and has excess capacity in most of its public services. The new town's construction presumably would include sufficient capital facilities to handle all the ex- pected population. Escalante, by means of Special Service Dis- tricts, also could use energy facility tax revenues but might have more trouble than other towns in having ready capital in time for the demand. This is discussed further in the section on fiscal impacts. In the view of some persons, the new roads, pipelines, transmission lines, and reduced visibility in the wilderness areas would also downgrade the scenic attractions of the area,2 having serious implications for a region which Is currently dependent on tourism for its economic livelihood. Agriculture involves about 660 square miles in Kane and Gar- field Counties (about 7 percent of the area), down from 740 square miles in 1967. Eight percent of the labor force works in agri- culture, mainly cattle and sheep grazing operations. Little ranching takes place near the scenario facility sites, and it is unlikely that energy development would adversely affect agriculture, The amount of land now committed to national forest and other fed- eral uses also indicates that not much increase in agriculture is likely in southern Utah. Smaller ranches will gradually go out of production or be consolidated into larger units, but this is a national trend not expected to be influenced by energy development. Finally, the energy-related economic activity will result in inflation in local housing and labor markets, perhaps equal to the short-term increase in income. Project workers will be able to outbid long-time local residents for land (where private land is available) and for goods and services; some low-wage service workers will be attracted away from their present jobs. Some em- ployees of existing businesses in the area can be expected to move to higher paying jobs in the energy facilities. Special Service Districts in Utah can supply water, sewage, drainage, flood control, garbage, hospital, transportation, recrea- tion, and fire protection services. They may include several non- contiguous areas, such as a power plant and a town separated by sevevral miles, and may cross jurisdictional boundaries. See Section F, Political and Governmental Impacts. 2See Josephy, Alvin M. "Kaiparowits: The Ultimate Obscenity." Audubon Magazine, Vol. 78 (Spring 1976), pp. 64-90; Ives, Berry, and William Schulze. Boomtown Impacts of Energy Development in the Lake Powell Region, Draft Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin. Los Angeles, Calif.: University of California, Institute of Geo- physics and Planetary Physics, 1976. 235 ------- TABLE 4-31: PROPERTY TAX REVENUES (millions of 1975 dollars', JURISDICTION Kane County a Garfield County Escalante b Coconino County, Arizona 1977 2.8 0 0 0.03 1980 15.6 1 0.01 0.14 1985 21.8 18.3 0.42 0.17 1990 21.8 21.8 0.48 0.18 Tax on energy facilities. Tax on residential and commercial development. D. Fiscal Impacts The largest fiscal impact of the energy development hypothe- sized in this scenario will arise from property taxes. Development expenditures are estimated to be $1,300 million for each power plant and $250 million for related coal mines at each site. This is equivalent to 32 percent of the currently assessed valuation in all of Utah. Assuming that the current mill levy rates are maintained1 and that the energy facilities are taxable at those levels, the energy facilities and related residential and commercial develop- ment will generate the property tax revenues shown in Table 4-31. Only about 3 percent of the increased tax base in the area will be accounted for by residential and commercial development. All property taxes in Utah currently go to county and local govern- ments. On the average, school districts get 59.8 percent.2 By law, property tax will be due on both mine structures and equipment (as calculated above) and on the coal resource when mined. However, nonmetallic mines located on land leased from public agencies have not been subjected to this "privilege tax" in the past. Because of this precedent and the heretofore arbitrary Current levies are 1.82 percent of full cash value in Kane County and 1.68 percent in Garfield County. University of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business Research. 1976 Statistical Ab- stract of Utah. Salt Lake City, Utah: University of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 1976, Tables VII-16 and VII-17. 2Ibid., Table VII-14. 236 ------- TABLE 4-32: ALLOCATION OF FEDERAL COAL ROYALTIES (millions of dollars) FUND State Reclamation Total (including others 1980 1.8 1.5 3.7 1985 10.2 8.1 20.3 1990 18.3 14.7 36.7 2000 22.2 17.8 44.5 application of taxes to other mineral deposits, no potential re- venues are assumed from this source.1 Utah will derive some benefit from federal royalties. Ac- cording to recently passed legislation, 12.5 percent of mine-mouth value has been set as a target for royalty collection, and of this amount 50 percent will be returned to the state.2 (A portion of the state's share must be expended in the coal-impact area, but we have credited all of it to the state's account.) Using coal prices derived from the nominal case run of the Stanford Research Institute (SRI) model3 (rising from $7.99/ton in 1975 to $13.71/ton by 2000, in constant dollars), and assuming that all of the coal is obtained through federal leases, ** royalties shown in Table 4-32 may be expected. Excise taxes will apply both directly to the energy facilities (a use tax on building materials, whether imported to the state or bought locally) and indirectly (sales tax on the workers' retail purchases). Construction activity will reach a peak in 1980, when ^render, Leonard D. Taxation of Coal Mining: Review with Recommendations. Denver, Colo. : Western Governors' Regional Pol- icy Office, 1976, appendix on Utah. 2Bureau of National Affairs. Energy Users' Report, Current Developments No. 129 (January 29, 1976), pp. A-3 through A-4. 3Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Develop- ment Study: Economics, Final Report,2 vols.Menlo Park,Calif.: Stanford Research Institute, 1976. 4Eight-seven percent of the land in these counties is feder- ally owned. 237 ------- TABLE 4-33: REVENUE FROM SALES AND USE TAXES' (millions of 1975 dollars) LOCATION Utah State Kane County Garfield County Arizona State Page 1977 4.1 0.51 0.01 0-12 0.02 1980 14.2 1.52 0.26 0.58 0.07 1985 11.3 0.11 1.3 0.59 0.07 1990 1.4 0.08 0.1 0.43 0.05 Distribution of retail sales assumed proportional to population. $337 million of materials and equipment are installed. At a rate of 4 percent, Utah would gain $13.5 million in use tax revenue that year, and the counties would gain $1.7 million (at a 0.5 percent rate). After the completion of the energy facilities, only the sales tax would continue. The $46 million per year of retail sales1 would yield $1.4 million for the state of Utah. These revenues are detailed in Table 4-33. Note that Page will not collect a use tax from the plants, only a sales tax from re- tail activity. As a final source of revenue, localities can charge for basic services, most notably water and sewer. Taking the Utah average of $74.80 per capita for charges and miscellaneous fees by local government,2 additional local revenues can be expected as shown in Table 4-34. All the revenues cited in the preceding analysis are grouped by jurisdiction in Table 4-35 to provide a basis for comparison with expenditures. Assuming that 56.0 percent of new personal income goes to taxable purchases. This is the average rate for the mountain states. See U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. The Statistical Abstract of the United States. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975, Tables 1317, 629. 2 Inferred from University of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business Research. 1976 Statistical Abstract of Utah. Salt Lake City, Utah: University of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 1976, Table VII-8. 238 ------- TABLE 4-34: GOVERNMENT FEES FOR SERVICES (millions of 1975 dollars) COUNTY Kane County Escalante, Utah Coconino, Arizona 1977 .06 .01 .07 1980 .31 .02 .32 1985 .58 .59 .39 1990 .61 .68 .42 TABLE 4-35: SUMMARY OF REVENUES FROM ENERGY DEVELOPMENT (millions of 1975 dollars) LOCATION Utah State3 Kane County Kane School District Garfield County Garfield School District Escalante Arizona State Arizona Local 1977 6.1 1.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.12 0.12 1980 20.0 8.1 9.3 0.6 0.6 0.05 0.58 0.53 1985 33.6 9.5 13.0 8.6 10.9 1.14 0.59 0.63 1990 26.1 9.5 13.0 8.8 13.0 1.26 0.43 0.65 Including funds for discretionary allocation to local units. As stated earlier, energy development will necessitate an ex- pansion of public services, especially in the areas of education and water and sewage treatment, and thus will require substantial expenditures. In analyzing these requirements, standard accounting procedures were followed; capital and operating expenditures were identified separately. It was assumed, as stated previously, that $2,500 in capital costs will be incurred for each additional student. (School enrollment is the only substantial growth category foreseen in the decade of the 1990's, either in expenditures or revenues.) Other likely capital expenditures include $1,760 per capita for water and sewage facilities and $590 for other items1 (mostly hos- pitals and parks). Table 4-36 shows the projected capital require- ments of Kane and Garfield Counties resulting from the application of these figures to the appropriate population projections, by 5-year periods. THK Associates, Inc. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry; Regional Development and Land Use Study.Denver,Colo.:THK Associates,1974. 239 ------- TABLE 4-36: CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS OP LOCAL GOVERNMENTS BY QUINQUENNIA (millions of 1975 dollars) LOCATION Kane County Kane School District Garfield School District Escalante, Utah Page, Arizona3" 1976 TO 1980 9.8 0.8 0.00 0.59 10.64 1981 TO 1985 8.4 1.6 3.2 18.1 2.53 1986 TO 1990 1.0 0.8 1.4 2.66 1.9 1991 TO 2000 NA 0.3 0.3 NA NA NA = not applicable, since no appreciable population increase. aGeneral government and schools. For operating expenditures, it is assumed that Utah averages will be maintained.l The annual operating levels are projected in Table 4-37. A comparison of these requirements with the previously tab- ulated revenue projections shows that Utah and many of its local jurisdictions will enjoy substantial, positive fiscal benefits by 1980 if current tax rates are maintained. For example, the Kane School District would receive additional property tax revenues of $13.0 million per year by 1982, while only $1.7 million per year in additional operating funds would be needed, even by 1990. The surplus will leave more than enough for the $3.2 million in capital to be accumulated over the first 15 years. The situation is simi- lar for county governments. The state government will eventually collect about twice as much as is needed for additional services ($26.1 million per year versus $12.3 million in 1990 and beyond). In fact, the disparity is even greater in the mid-1980"s, when some $11 million per year will be realized from the use tax on construction materials. At $1,300 per year per student for schools, $197 per capita for other local functions, and $645 for state government. See Uni- versity of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business Research. 1976 Statistical Abstract of Utah. Salt Lake City, Utah: University of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 1976. 240 ------- TABLE 4-37: INCREASES IN OPERATING EXPENDITURES OF SELECTED LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT (millions of 1975 dollars) JURISDICTION Utah State Kane County Kane School District Garfield School District Escalante, Utah Page, Arizona3 1977 0.80 0.16 0.18 0.00 0.02 0.25 1980 3.50 0.82 0.44 0.00 0.05 0.99 1982 4.80 0.92 0.77 0.68 0.32 0.94 1985 11.20 1.53 1.27 1.69 1.57 1.41 1990 12.30 1.61 1.72 2.40 1.79 1.92 aGeneral government and schools. Municipalities, however, will experience negative fiscal im- pacts if higher levels of government do not subsidize them. Es- calante and Page may be taken as examples of this problem. Exca- lante's new revenues will just about keep pace with operating expenditures until the mid-1980's, but later deficits will grow to about $530,000 per year ($1.79 million new expenditures versus $1.26 million new revenues). Moreover, Escalante must build new facilities at a rate of $3.62 million per year during 1981-1985 if the current quality of service is to be maintained. Fortunately, the capital requirements will decrease to $0.53 million per year in the late 1980's, and a negligible level thereafter, due to a leveling off of population growth. Similarly, in Page, Arizona, operating deficits will widen continually, from $0.46 million in 1980 to $0.78 million in 1985 and $1.27 million in 1990.1 Capital requirements will peak at $2.13 million per year in the late 1970's, decreasing to about $0.45 million through the 1980's. The disparities between state, county, and municipality re- venues arise because the state and county can tax energy developers directly but the municipality can tax only the new population. Counties levy property taxes and use taxes on the facilities; the state receives a share of federal coal royalties, the larger part of sales and use taxes, and an income tax. Thus, their revenues can grow faster than population (and hence costs) without any change in tax rates. However, as long as municipalities rely on population-determined taxes (residential property, utility fees, 1 Deficits include both school and general local government. 241 ------- retail sales) , they cannot expand revenues faster than population increases without raising their tax rates. E. Social and Cultural Impacts The major sociocultural impact resulting from the Kaiparowits/ Escalante development will be a drastic alteration of the domi- nant lifestyle in the area. At present, communities are small, relatively isolated, and inhabited by persons who have established rural traditions1 and strong religious beliefs. Residents of the communities are family and extended family oriented. The influx of individuals with different geographical, cultural, and religious origins, higher incomes, and a somewhat more urban perspective will provide a sharp contrast to the present population. Because these new residents will eventually outnumber the present popula- tion, changes in the dominant lifestyle will occur. Religious and value differences could also be problems. The inhabitants of southern Utah are almost exclusively Mormon, whereas a large number of the immigrants will probably not be Mormon. Mormon standards may conflict with immigrant preferences, particu- larly with regard to intoxicants and smoking. Conflicts from these differences may well arise for immigrant school children. In addition, the evangelistic posture of the Mormon church could have an effect by generating both converts and conflicts. The lack of alternative churches in Utah may make Page a worship center because eight denominations, in addition to the Latter Day Saints, have congregations there. Dissatisfactions with mobile home living and insufficient social services will produce impacts such as high divorce rates and other indications of community and family stress.2 One aspect of this stress will be an increased crime rate. However, after construction activity is completed (by 1988), these local problems should decrease significantly. Although community medical facilities appear capable of meeting projected needs to 1985, adequate medical personnel will Minar, David W., and Scott Greer. The Concept of Community: Readings with Interpretations. Chicago, 111.: Aldine, 1969. 2For a further discussion of boomtown problems, see Gilmore, John S. "Boom Towns May Hinder Energy Development." Science, Vol. 191 (February 13, 1976), pp. 535-40; Kneese, Allan V. "Mitigating the Undesirable Aspects of Boom Town Development," in Federation of Rocky Mountain States. Energy Development in the Rocky Mountain Region: Goals and Concerns. Denver, Colo.: Federation of Rocky Mountain States, 1975, pp. 74-76; and Talagan, D.P., and W.E. Rapp. "Mitigation of Social Impacts on Individuals, Families, and Commu- nities in Rapid Growth Areas," in Ibid., pp. 71-74. 242 ------- be difficult to retain because physicians generally are reluctant to live in isolated, nonmetropolitan areas. The two Utah counties will need 39 physicians by 1990 to meet the national average of one physician per 1,320 population. Because the population increases in the area will be caused primarily by the energy development activities, a number of "com- pany town" characteristics may develop in area communities. Work schedules, holidays, and vacations might well determine the hours for businesses in these communities, creating an impression of company domination. Company-owned buildings and vehicles will also contribute to this impression, creating resentment among some native residents. The new town near Glen Canyon City will probably show the greatest "company town" tendencies. F. Political and Governmental Impacts Population growth and economic development at Kaiparowits/ Escalante, almost of necessity, will increase the role of govern- ment in terms of demands for public service and facilities. As shown in the preceding analysis, most of these demands will fall on Kane and Garfield Counties, their localities, and to a lesser degree on Page, Arizona. The state government of Utah likewise will be affected, particularly with regard to legislative policies and programs, tax collection and distribution procedures, and other energy-related problems of statewide planning and growth manage- ment. Immediate governmental impacts will occur as local communities, confronted with or anticipating rapid population increases, demand expenditures to provide essential services. In the case of Kane and Garfield Counties, the bulk of the population is located in the western half of each county. Most of the population increases, on the other hand, will take place in the resource areas, which are in the eastern parts of the area. Although, as noted in the fiscal analysis, revenues in the two Utah counties will be adequate to provide service improvements, problems may occur relative to the timing and distribution of available tax monies for communities if higher levels of govern- ment do not subsidize them. For example, even though Escalante's new revenues appear to keep pace with operating expenditures until the mid-1980's, later deficits expand to $530,000 per year. Furthermore, Escalante must build new facilities at a rate of $3.62 million per year during 1981-1985 if present tax rates are main- tained in this community. The timing problem (i.e., the potential impact of lagging revenues) for localities might be averted if resource developers choose to prepay all or a portion of the taxes anticipated from the facility development and if such monies are distributed to the 243 ------- point of impact. However, as enacted in 1975, the Utah sales and use tax prepayment provision is restricted in several ways.1 First, it is voluntary on the part of the developer and appears to give no incentive to the developer to prepay (e.g., in the form of discounts or interest on tax credits). Second and more critical to mitigating local impacts are restrictions limiting aid to "state-related public improvements," such as schools and high- ways. The preceding fiscal analysis shows that the agencies pri- marily concerned with these projects (e.g., school districts) will manage without such assistance. The problem for state pro- grams is not one of time, for these jurisdictions have surplusses from the start; rather, the problem is that municipalities need help in meeting their front-end financing problems. In addition to the above limitations, the process of distrib- uting revenues collected through Utah's prepayment statute does not insure that the available funds will reach the point of need in a reliable manner. The Utah legislature is required to approve appropriations for public service projects to be funded, thereby increasing the length of time required for the disbursement of monies and raising the level of uncertainty as to their availabil- ity. This is especially significant because the legislature meets only once every 2 years. There also appears to be some question as to the adequacy of the increased revenues which Page and Coconino County can expect to receive for purposes of service and facility improvements. In Page, Arizona, operating deficits widen continually during 1980-1990. Some fiscal adjustments may be required by the res- pective local and county governments because Arizona must depend on ad valorem property taxes and assessed valuations connected with population growth and increased sales taxes to finance public improvements. Fiscal impacts and problems of tax distribution underscore the importance of adequate planning at every level of government. The planning capacity of Kane and Garfield Counties, as previously indicated, is limited. Only Kane County has a zoning ordinance and planning commission, and both staffs are small. The Kaiparo- wits Planning and Development Council was established to provide the two Utah counties access to additional professional planning expertise. In addition, the state has taken several earlier steps to reinforce the roles and capabilities of local officials by :Utah Code Annotated, §§ 63-51-1 et seq. (Cumulative Supple- ment 1975.) 244 ------- developing a planning and coordination structure to assist localities.1 Beginning in May 1970, eight multicounty planning districts (since reduced to seven) were established by executive order of the Governor. Members of the designated districts formed Associations of Government (AOG's), with Kane and Garfield joining the Five County AOG in southern Utah. Generally, membership in the Five County AOG is composed of elected city and county offi- cials; however, it includes elected members of the school board and invited representatives of higher education and state legis- lators to sit ex-officio. The association decides what issues it chooses to deal with, what funds it accepts for these purposes, and whether it will undertake direct operation of programs. The AOG also sends representatives to the Governor's Advisory Council on Local Affairs (GACLA) to coordinate local involvement in the state government planning process. Besides the GACLA, the governor of Utah has another statewide advisory group, the State Planning Advisory Committee, which seeks to coordinate the responses of state agencies to both federal and local issues and bring state agencies under a common set of prior- ities and policies.2 This committee and the multicounty AOG serve additionally as state and area clearinghouses under the federal Office of Management and Budget A-95 review procedures.3 As described above, Utah's arrangements and procedures for intergovernmental coordination remain largely untested, at least in terms of the energy-related problems the state confronts in this scenario. Until the scenario unfolds over time, it will re- main unknown whether the typical lag between the need for govern- ment planning and services and their provision will or will not prevail here. The fact that there is so much federal land in the Information on the Utah intergovernmental planning structure is summarized mainly from Utah, State Planning Coordinator and Department of Community Affairs. Intergovernmental Planning and Coordination: The Utah Experience. Salt Lake City, Utah: State of Utah, 1975. 2To carry out its duties, the State Planning Advisory Commit- tee has established three interdepartmental coordination groups within three major categories: Human Services, Economic and Phys- ical Development, and Regulatory. 30ffice of Management and Budget Circular A-95 establishes the requirement for states to provide the opportunity for gover- nors and local officials to comment on applications for federal funds to undertake a variety of categorical programs, and requires agencies of the federal government to consider the comments of the general public in approving specific applications for funds. Nu- merous federal grants for facilities and services require A-95 review procedures as a condition for their award. 245 ------- area suggests that proper planning in advance will be even more essential in this scenario than elsewhere.1 It also suggests that the market for the best land could easily be bid out of reach of all but large, nonlocal interests. Further, the location and status of the Kaiparowits new town will raise numerous issues involving both the state and county governments, as well as federal-state relations. Besides facility finances, another traditional category of government concern that may be affected by energy resource devel- opment is police protection; that is, increases in area crime due to energy-related development and population increase might result in law enforcement problems.2 However, increases in crime appear to vary greatly from community to community and are not always perceived to be disproportionate.3 Present law enforcement per- sonnel will be insufficient for the communities likely to be affected, and salary disparities between area law enforcement and energy facility security jobs may result in loss of some community officers to the higher paid positions. In addition to impacts noted above, energy development at Kaiparowits/Escalante may result in changes for traditional organized interests and could, over the long term, affect the power base of political groups and other parties-at-interest in energy- impacted communities. For example, the change in land use from ranching and tourism to urban, industrial, and residential activi- ties will result in social and political stress in the area. Long- time residents whose way of life, and possibly livelihood, are threatened by energy development could become a political force that might make additional demands on the developers. Although the southern Utah mood is generally prodevelopment, some groups will be affected more adversely than others. Therefore, some political differences appear likely. These may well be exacer- bated if, as is likely, newcomers displace natives on the 1For example, police and fire protection and medical care in- volve important locational and accessibility criteria that must be considered. The unavailability of federal land could constrain such services to very nonoptimal sites if the best sites are either on federal land or are sold for other uses. 2Crime rates have often increased in other boom towns. See Coon, Randal C., et al. The Impact of the Safeguard Antiballistic Missile System Construction on Northeastern North Dakota, Agricul- tural Economics Report No. 101. Fargo, N.D.: North Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Economics, 1976, pp. 15-16; Gilmore, John S. "Boom Towns May Hinder Energy Development." Science, Vol. 191 (February 13, 1976), pp. 535-40. 3Summers, Gene F., et al. Industrial Invasion of Nonmetropo- litan America. New York, N.Y.: Praeger, 1976. 246 ------- governing bodies of city and county governments and in such organizations as Parent Teachers Associations and Chambers of Commerce. If construction-related residents, who are known to be temporary, are perceived to be overly active politically, hostil- ity can result. 4.4.5 Summary of Social and Economic Impacts Manpower requirements and tax rates, especially those tied to the capital costs of the mine-power plant complexes, are major causes of social and economic impacts. The manpower requirement for the operation of an underground coal mine exceeds the peak construction requirement by four times, but the reverse is true for the power plant. As a result, the manpower requirements for the mine-plant combination build steadily; the maximum number of workers are employed during operation, and no construction peak occurs. Property tax and sales tax, which are tied to energy facility capital costs, and royalty payments, which are tied to the value of the coal, generate revenue for the state and local government. Capital costs for a power plant-mine combination (two are hypothe- sized for the Kaiparowits/Escalante area) are about $1,575 million (1975 dollars). The property tax is levied on the cash value of each facility, and the sales tax is levied on the materials and equipment purchased. The current sales tax rate in Utah is 4.75 percent; the property tax rate is about 1.82 percent in Kane County and 1.68 percent in Garfield County. State and local governments will receive 50 percent of the royalty payments which are about 12.5 percent of the value of federally owned coal. If development at Kaiparowits/Escalante proceeds according to the scenario hypothesized, it will result in an approximate 400 percent population increase in southern Utah (to more than 25 thousand people) by 1990. The largest local increases should occur in Escalante and at the Kaiparowits new town. However, much of the secondary employment personnel will be attracted to Page, Arizona. Housing and school needs will be greatest at Escalante, less at the new town (where the development plan should anticipate demand with several school buildings), and less at Page, where the increase will be fairly gradual and will balance with the down- turn in activity from construction of the Navajo power plant. A long-term impact on the age structure in the area will re- sult, with younger workers and families moving into an area which has recently seen much out-migration by young adults. In the short term, an imbalance of males and females could cause social problems during project construction. The average income in the area will increase by at least 24 percent, and except for Coconino County and Page, governmental revenues will increase. Most of the impacts will occur in the eastern portions of the two counties, the area now least populated. This will intensify the need for 247 ------- planning and delivery of social services, and it may result in some tension between the new population in the east and the na- tives in the west. Revenues generated by the development will support the ex- pansion of public services and professional staff required in southern Utah. However, Page will not benefit directly and will suffer a net loss in providing services to the portion of the population increase expected to locate there. By 1990, most of the negative economic impacts associated with population increases will have been absorbed. From this time forward, economic impacts will be almost entirely beneficial, especially in terms of tax revenues and personal income. 4.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 4.5.1 Introduction The area considered for ecological impacts in the Kaiparowits/ Escalante scenario extends northward from the Colorado River to include the Aquarius Plateau and Boulder Mountain. The western boundary is the Paria River, and the eastern boundary is the Henry Mountains. Topographically, the area is a series of benches or plateaus, separated by steep cliffs as much as 2,000 feet in height. The entire landscape rises gradually from 4,000 feet in the semiarid benchlands at Glen Canyon Dam to more than 10,500 feet on the relatively moist Aquarius Plateau. Elevational change, with associated rainfall variation of 6 to 20 inches per year, is the major factor determining the distribution of predominant plant communities. Within each community type, soil moisture largely determines the relative abundance of plant species. 4.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions Biological communities in the Kaiparowits Plateau area are comprised primarily of plants and animals adapted for survival in a harsh, arid or semiarid environment.1 Nevertheless, these popu- lations fluctuate from year to year in response to climatic varia- tions, especially in the amount of moisture. Slight variations in precipitation can cause major changes in the production of plants; in turn, the levels of plant productivity tend to place a ceiling on the potential abundance of animal life. The flora of the Kaiparowits Plateau contains a blend of cold and warm desert species, resulting in a diversity of plant 1U.S./ Department of the Interior, Southwest Energy Federal Task Force. Southwest Energy Study, Appendix H: Report of the Biota Work Group. Springfield, Va.: National Technical Informa- tion Service, 1972, pp. 23-30. PB-232-104. 248 ------- life. The dominant vegetation types in the immediate vicinity of the postulated energy facilities are pinyon-juniper woodland on the plateau and several desert shrub and grassland communities at lower elevations toward the Colorado River.1 Some soilless, rocky areas are entirely barren. At the Kaiparowits facility site, pinyon and juniper trees cover up to 62 percent of the surface. Mountains to the north support coniferous forests that consist mostly of Ponderosa pine and Douglas fir. Animal life is diverse but sparse, probably because accessible water is relatively scarce. Large mammals include mule deer, pronghorn antelope, bighorn sheep, mountain lions, coyotes, foxes, and bobcats.2 Over 200 species of birds use the area at least seasonally, and about 60 species of smaller terrestrial vertebrates occur, including small mammals, reptiles, and amphibians.3 The only rare or endangered species known to occur in the area directly affected by the scenario activities is the peregrine falcon, which occasionally appears in the summer.4 Table 4-38 summarizes char- acteristic species of the major terrestrial habitat types in the scenario area. The physical and chemical properties of Lake Powell make it a productive lake with a largely self-sustaining sport fishery. The lake supports about 19 species of fish via a food chain that includes a diversity of algae and invertebrates. The lake is primarily a warm water habitat, and fishes such as largemouth bass are abundant in the upper water layers and shallow bays. Deeper, cooler layers contain trout. 4.5.3 Factors Producing Impacts Four factors associated with construction and operation of the scenario facilities (two 3,000 MWe power plants and their ^.S., Department of the Interior, Southwest Energy Federal Task Force. Southwest Energy Study, Appendix H: Report of the Biota Work Group. Springfield, Va,: National Technical Informa- tion Service, 1972, pp. 23-30. PB-232 104. 2Bighorn sheep occur in the Circle Cliffs area, which is the northern border of the Escalante River Valley. 3Some of the small mammals may be important to arid southwest ecosystems. For example, kangaroo rats help maintain nutrient cycles. Chew, R.M., and A.E. Chew. "Energy Relationships of the Mammals of a Desert Shrub (Larrea tridentata) Community." Ecolog- ical Monographs, Vol. 40 (1979), pp. 1-21. 4A colony of the endangered Utah prairie dog is located about 25 miles to the north, and another has been introduced in Bryce Canyon to the west. 249 ------- TABLE 4-38: SELECTED CHARACTERISTIC SPECIES OF MAIN HABITAT TYPES IN KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE SCENARIO COMMUNITY TYPE CHARACTERISTIC PLANTS CHARACTERISTIC ANIMALS Salt and Desert Shrub and Grasslands Blackbrush Spiny hopsage Shadscale Rabbithrush Galleta grass Indian ricegrass Pronghorn antelope Buffalo Canyon mouse Chukar Horned lark Side-blotched lizard Coyote Badger Rugged Areas Same as desert shrub Bighorn sheep Rock squirrel Bat Birds of prey Mountain lion Bobcat Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Utah juniper Double-leaf pinyon Buffaloberry Cliffrose Sagebrush Indian ricegrass Blue grama Mule deer Desert cottontail Bushytail woodrat Pinyon jay Chickadee Coyote Fox Mountain lion Bobcat Plateau Coniferous Forest Ponderosa pine Douglas fir Englemann spruce Aspen Gambel oak Mule deer Black bear Wild turkey Band-taxled pigeon Beaver Chipmunk species Clark's nutcracker Dipper Coyote Bobcat associated underground coal mines) can cause ecological impacts: land use, population increases, water: use and water pollution, and air quality changes. With the exception of land use, the quanti- ties of each of these associated with one mine-power plant complex were given in previous sections of this chapter. Land-use quan- tities are given in this section and the others are summarized. Land used by a 3,000 MWe power plant is about 2,4000 acres and by 250 ------- its associated underground coal mine, 1,590 acres.1 Urban population in the scenario area is expected to increase due to the manpower required for construction and operation of the facilities. During construction, direct employment by one mine-power plant complex peaks at 3,360 workers 7 years after the start. During the operational phase, direct employment is about 6,440 workers. Each facility will demand from 18,000 to 30,000 acre-feet of water per year and contribute contaminants to surface and groundwater only as evaporative ponds leak or erode. In the vicinity of the Kaiparowits plant, ground level ambient air concentrations of S02 may be as high as 229 yg/m3. In the vicinity of the Escalante plant, annual concentrations of 862 are 11.2 yg/m3, and 3-hour concentrations are 1,060 yg/m3. 4.5.4 Impacts The nature of the ecological impacts caused by these factors depends on the plant and animal community type on which they are imposed. For example, the impact of land use depends on whether desert shrub, riparian, or pinyon-juniper communities are being used. Figure 4-11 shows the distribution of energy facilities and associated human activities likely to have the greatest impact on ecosystems. Some of these land-use trends are now evident or could occur regardless of energy-related growth. Their extent is directly related to the number of people drawn into the area by energy resource developments. A scenario, which calls for two complexes to be developed according to a specified time schedule (see Table 4-1), is used here as the vehicle through which the extent of the impacts are explored. Impacts caused by land use, population increase, water use and water pollution, and by air quality changes are discussed. A. To 1980 During the 1975-1980 time period, construction of the Kai- parowits power plant will begin, with the labor force peaking in 1980. Construction activity during most of this time period will be limited to clearing the Kaiparowits plant site, building heavy duty access roads, and laying the plant water line. Table 4-39 shows the expected land use by the proposed energy facilities and urban population in Kane and Garfield counties from 1975-2000. Land use in 1980 by the urban population only (since neither of the plants or mines are completed) totals about 828 acres, approx- imately equally divided between pinyon-juniper woodland and shrub grassland. Table 4-40 summarizes these habitat losses. The loss of 414 acres of pinyon-juniper and of salt-tolerant shrub grass land by 1980 (Table 4-40) in the scenario area would Includes only that portion of the mine site to 'be occupied by surface structures. 251 ------- Coal Mine Limestone Quarry Existing Roads Proposed Roads Water Line and Pumping Station Transmission Line «"r.v'-V Probable Recreation Probable Housing and Business -'£&??.V; Probable Recreation Concentration FIGURE 4-11: HUMAN ACTIVITIES IN THE KAIPAROWITS/ ESCALANTE AREA 252 ------- TABLE 4-39: LAND USE IN KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE SCENARIO (acres)a By Energy Facilities 1st Power Plant (3,000 MWe) 2nd Power Plant (3,000 MWe) Underground Coal Mines (11.2 MMtpy) Underground Coal Mines (11.2 MMtpy) Subtotal By Urban Population Kane County Residential Streets Commercial Public and Community Facilities Industry Subtotal Garfield County Residential Streets Commercial Public and Community Facilities Industry Subtotal Subtotal Total Land Use Total Land in Scenario Area 5,888,640 Kane County 2,570,240 Garfield County 3,318,400 1975 165 33 4 10 16 228 165 33 4 10 16 228 456 456 1980 373 75 9 23 37 517 224 45 5 14 22 310 827 827 1990 2,400 2,400 1,59(T 1,590 7,980 575 115 14 36 58 798 712 142 17 44 71 986 1,784 9,764 2000 2,400 2,400 1,590 1,590 7,980 603 121 14 37 60 835 747 149 18 46 75 1,035 1,870 9,850 MWe = megawatt-electric MMtpy = million tons per year values in each column are cumulative up to year shown. Acres used by the urban population were calculated using population estimates in Tables 4-24 and 4-25 for Kane and Garfield counties, respectively, and assuming: residential land = 50 acres per 1,000 population; streets = 10 acres per 1,000 population; commercial land =1.2 acres per 1,000 population; public and community facilities =3.1 acres per 1,000 population; and industry = 5 acres per 1,000 population. Adopted from THK Associates, Inc. Impact Analy- sis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry: Regional Devel- opment and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974. /-> Includes only that portion of the mine site to be occupied by surface structures. 253 ------- TABLE 4-40: HABITAT LOSSES OVER TIME IN THE KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE SCENARIO (acres) TYPE Piny on- juniper Salt-tolerant shrub grassland Plateau conifers Ponderosa pine Sagebrush Barren land Total: 1980 414 414 828 1990 7,295 1,844 447 178 9,764 2000 7,305 1,844 447 65 11 178 9,850 eliminate the forage normally utilized in a year by 4 to 5 cows with calves.1 Normally, these lands are used for only 6 months in the winter or summer. Therefore, the maximum number of cow- with-calf units represented by this loss is 8 to 10. However, not all lands in the scenario area are grazed under the present Bureau of Land Management (BLM) program. Consequently, potential livestock reductions are less than this maximum. Population increases during this period center in a new town to be built on East Clark Bench; the town is expected to have a population over 3,000 by 1980. Population in Kane County as a whole increases by 56 percent from 1975 to 1980. The higher levels of human activity during this construction phase will cause some local stress to wildlife. For example, increased access to the plateau will result in a significant increase in game poaching, a problem typically observed during construction periods in other western areas.2 Poaching, together with the present steady downtrend in the Kaiparowits herd, could have measurable effects on total numbers. The new town is located in the range of the East Clark Bench antelope herd, which may ultimately disappear Carrying capacity for livestock has been assumed to be 10-15 acres of forage per month for a cow and calf in pinyon-juniper rangeland and 18-22 acres of forage per month for a cow and calf in salt-tolerant shrub-grassland. 2Unlike legitimate single-sex hunting, which is also likely to increase, poaching takes animals of both sexes and can affect the population's ability to maintain its numbers by reproduction. 254 ------- from the area through the combined effects of poaching, harassment, and habitat deterioration. These antelope, numbering perhaps 25 or 30, are the remnants of an attempt at reintroduction. However, habitat quality, rather than available area, appears to limit their numbers, and they are expected to decline with or without the development of the new town. Birds of prey are also tradi- tional targets for illegal shooting. The problem of illegal killing will worsen when the Cannonville-Kaiparowits highway is built. In addition, increased recreational demands may be expec- ted and will likely exert their greatest influence on the desert ecosystem below the plateau rim. Extensive areas of the BLM land, which are potentially attractive sites for off-the-road vehicle (ORV) use, lie within easy access of Page and the new town. Heavy use of these areas may eventually result in extensive local ero- sion and accompanying vegetation loss.1 Since neither power plant is operating during this time per- iod, impacts caused by water use or air quality changes are mini- mal . B. To 1990 By the end of the second scenario decade, the Kaiparowits and Escalante plants will both be on-line, transmission lines will be built, and population will have risen sharply. Also during this time frame, the limestone quarry to supply the needs of power plant scrubbers will be opened. In 1990, land use by the energy facilities will be 7,980 acres, and by the urban population, 1,984 acres (Table 4-39). The per- centages of land in Kane and Garfield counties used by the energy facilities and by the urban population are 0.14 percent and 0.03 percent, respectively. Habitat loss by 1990 is principally pinyon-juniper woodland with smaller amounts of shrub-grassland, plateau conifers, and barren land, as shown in Table 4-40. The pinyon-juniper habitat supports a wide variety of vertebrate spe- cies and constitutes the bulk of the winter range of the Kaiparo- wits deer herd.2 Deer are distributed unevenly over the plateau, in small groups which do not fully utilize the habitat available. 1 The seriousness of the impact of ORV use will depend on the success of efforts to control it on public lands, the kinds of trails made, and their manner of use. Where a trail is used infre" quently and plant roots are not damaged, the vegetation may recover in one season. However, roads which climb slopes at steep angles and break the surface of the soil may begin to gully after about 5 years from infrequent but intense thunderstorms. U.S., Depart- ment of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Paria Unit Staff. Personal communication. 2Utah, Division of Wildlife Resources, Personal communication. 255 ------- One estimate suggests that the proposed plant site may be used by some 60 deer seasonally, or year-round by roughly 20. The cumu- lative total loss of pinyon-juniper woodland constitutes roughly 3 percent of the Kaiparowits deer range. Consequently, it is not expected that overall carrying capacity will be significantly re- duced. In addition, a total of 1,220 acres of the pinyon-juniper habitat lost in this decade is claimed by transmission line rights- of-way. While vegetation is initially cleared entirely, regrowth in the absence of root competition from trees may be equal or supe- rior to the original vegetation as wildlife forage, especially if the right-of-way is reseeded. This additional productive vegeta- tional discontinuity will probably result in local increase in small vertebrate diversity. The limestone quarry lies adjacent to the range of a healthy antelope herd, but the bulk of the habitat to be disturbed is unsuitable for them. Agricultural impacts will stem from the loss of grazing land. Excluding transmission line right-of-way, which may be reseeded and recover its grazing value, the 9,149 acres of forage (pinyon- juniper and salt-tolerant shrub grassland) used by the energy facilities and urban population by 1990 (Table 4-40) is equivalent to the yearly forage requirements of 48 to 70 cows with calves.2 Not all of the land disturbed is normally allotted to grazing; therefore, these numbers are a maximum. Based on 6 month pasturing, this amount of forage might support 95-139 cows with calves. Population increases during this period may be expected to affect habitat quality. By 1990 the population of Kane and Gar- field counties will rise (with respect to 1975 population) 248 percent and 330 percent, respectively. The Kaiparowits new town will have about 7,000 residents in 1990. Page, Arizona, will act as a secondary focus of growth, and will have grown by a cumula- tive 33 percent by 1990. The town of Escalante will grow from 650 to about 9,700 in this period. These higher populations may be expected to influence habitat quality in a variety of ways. For example, increased traffic on new roads crossing the Kaiparo- wits Plateau will add to the yearly road kill of animals, espe- cially since the proposed Cannonville-Glen County City highway right-of-way transects the present direction of deer migration. Increased access to the plateau will probably increase the amount of game poaching and extend it to a wider area. Cumulative effects could result in continued decline in deer numbers. :U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Draft Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976. 2Carrying capacity for livestock had been assumed to be 10-15 acres of forage per month for a cow and calf in pinyon-juniper rangeland and 18-22 acres in salt-tolerant shrub grassland. 256 ------- Water for the two plants is pumped from Lake Powell and piped to the plant sites. The municipalities will use groundwater. Both of these withdrawals as well as coal mining within aquifers and discharge of municipal wastewater affect aquatic and terres- trial ecosystems. Removal of water from Lake Powell for the Kaiparowits pro- ject has been predicted to result in salinity increases of roughly 2 mg/£ at Imperial Dam.l The present scenario would no more than double this effect, which could constitute approximately 0.3 per- cent of the salinity projected for the year 2000.2 Thus, the impact of water withdrawal on downstream water use by wildlife will be negligible. Mining and groundwater withdrawal for municipal use will probably bring about a decrease in discharge to springs and seeps over an unspecified portion of the area. These discharges have a strong influence on the distribution of many kinds of wildlife, such as deer, mourning doves, and numerous small birds and mammals with restricted ranges that require accessible water to sustain life. The cumulative effect on the plateau ecosystem of ground- water losses, depending on the extent to which accessible water sources are affected, will be a combination of redistribution of water dependent species away from depeleted springs or seeps and perhaps a decrease in their overall population. The loss of water from these sources will be partially miti- gated by the addition of surge ponds on the water lines and on- site raw water reservoirs. Reservoirs located in the pinyon- juniper zone might be used by a variety of wildlife, provided that deer-proof fencing is not used. However, these reservoirs will not replace natural springs and seeps that support vegetation. Surge ponds will be located in the desert ecosystem where they will constitute a distinct benefit if not restrictively fenced. Partridge, pheasant, or quail could establish new populations around these ponds, provided other habitat requirements are met. Treated municipal wastes might be discharged into the Esca- lante River from the town of Escalante. These wastes usually con- tain large amounts of nutrients that can stimulate algal growth. The amount of discharge would be insufficient to maintain base ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Draft Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 5 vols. Salt Lake^City, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1975. 2Published estimates range from 1,220 mg/£ (BuRec) to 1,340 mg/£ (Colorado River Board of California). Note that if water for energy development were instead used for agriculture, runoff from croplands would result in larger increases in downstream salinity. 257 ------- flow in the dry summer period. Nuisance algal blooms, causing odors and reducing dissolved oxygen, could result if the effluent stagnates in pools. Adverse impacts of this kind would be greatest at periods of low flow. After the two power plants begin operations, air pollutants of various kinds will enter the atmosphere. Ground-level concen- trations of S02 are estimated to reach peak 3-hour average values of about 1,060 ug/m3 where plume impaction on high terrain may occur (see Section 4.2). This concentration is equivalent to about 0.4 ppm, which is below acute damage levels for those desert plants which have been tested (acute damage has been measured in desert plants typically in the range of 2 to 10 ppm for 2 to 6 hour exposures). More sensitive desert species may exist but have not been tested. The potential for chronic damage may exist but there are insufficient data to support a conclusion. Generally, damage due to acid rainfall is not expected due to the low humidity and limited precipitation, although periods of active plant growth and increased susceptibility to acid rain may be related to the area's rainfall season. C. To 2000 By 2000 land use by the energy facilities and urban popula- tion will total 9,850 acres, less than 0.2 percent of the amount of land in Kane and Garfield counties. Between 1990 and 2000, no additional land is required for the energy facilities themselves; but urban expansion continues to require habitat directly (see Table 4-40) , and population increases continue to affect habitat quality indirectly. By 2000, the population of Garfield County and Kane County should more than triple the 1975 population (see Section 4.4). Thus, living space, water, and recreation needs in these counties will lead to both local and areawide changes in land use. ORV use, camping, hiking, and other activities will continue to affect vegetation locally and contribute to erosion. New trails to be developed by the Forest Service to accommodate increased recreational use will provide access to previously iso- lated areas. Urban growth around Escalante, Page, and the Kaiparowits new town will result in an increase in ORV recreation on the deserts near Lake Powell. A new road planned to parallel Lake Powell's north shore will open access to new areas. In addition, poaching will continue along roads and near towns, although levels may de- cline somewhat after the Escalante construction peak. Residential growth will also result in fragmentation of habitat, particularly along highways following river valleys. If allowed to run free, 258 ------- dogs may also affect wildlife in the area.1 The cumulative effect of these influences will be to reduce the abundance and diversity of wildlife within as much as 5 to 10 miles of residen- tial centers. Increased populations will add to the recreational pressure placed on the Dixie National Forest and nearby highlands. Major potential impacts include loss of vegetation cover, particularly around lakeshores and streambanks as a consequence of uncontrolled camping and ORV use associated with fishing. Some summer deer range could also be affected. Loss of shore vegetation, if not controlled by restricting use of these areas, can lead to erosion and siltation problems which could lower the production of fish in lakes already under stress from a long-term drying trend. Continuing growth in fishing pressure will, by this decade, have depleted naturally reproducing trout populations, and the fishery will probably be maintained exclusively by stocking. Small par- cels of privately owned land within the National Forest are expec- ted to be developed as recreational subdivisions. This change in use will disturb wildlife and tend to fragment winter deer range. Hunting will also increase, but it can be controlled by employing management practices such as setting hunting seasons, limiting the numbers of permits issued, and reducing bag limits. Demand, however, will probably exceed the amount of deer and, perhaps, upland game birds. Some of the long-term changes which may occur as a result of the handling of wastewater from the power plants are potentially significant. For example, large wastewater impoundments may attract wildlife during dry periods, but it is not likely that animals will prefer the highly polluted water to the clean water in the plant source water reservoirs.2 Also, materials leached from these ponds may enter groundwater. Although recent evidence suggests that trace metals do not migrate far through soils, some salts, such as sulfates and carbonates, may.3 The fate of the soluble organic compounds is uncertain. After the facilities are abandoned, the chemicals left in the evaporation ponds may 1 Dogs have become a serious concern in some parts of Colorado; a review of the problem, from the sportsman's viewpoint, is given in Oertle, V. Lee. "What's Happening to Western States' Deer Hunting?" Sports Afield (September 1975). 2Crawford, James C., and D.C. Church. "Response of Black- Tailed Deer to Various Chemical Taste Stimuli." Journal of Wild- life Management, Vol. 35 (November 1971), pp. 210-215. 3 Holland, W.F., et al. The Environmental Effects of Trace Elements in the Pond Disposal of Ash and Flue Gas Desulfurization Sludge, Final Report, Electric Power Research Institute Research Project No. 202. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1975, p. 3. 259 ------- eventually enter surface waters from dike failure or erosion. If high concentrations enter the shallow bays of Lake Powell, for example, fish might be killed or avoid the contaminated areas. Considerable concern has been expressed over the long-term contamination of Lake Powell by trace elements emitted in plant stack gases. For example, mercury can reach the lake from the facilities by direct fallout from emissions and by runoff. Cal- culations made for mercury deposition from the Kaiparowits plant alone range from 16 to 480 pounds of mercury entering the lake each year. These numbers are 1 to 27 percent of the present esti- mated rate of addition from natural sources. An unknown fraction of this input is converted to the organic form of mercury and enters the food chain. The emissions from the Escalante plant would con- tribute additional mercury, although the position of the site makes it likely that the amount would be less than that of Kai- parowits. There is evidence to suggest that very small increases in mercury entering the aquatic food chain could result in elevations of mercury levels in fish tissues exceeding the limits set by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as safe for human consumption. Current levels in some predatory fish in Lake Powell exceed FDA standards of 500 parts per billion. Although based on limited knowledge, the movement of mercury in the form of an elemental vapor from power plant emissions into the aquatic food chain has been estimated to cause increases of 10 to 50 percent, depending on the number of plants, their location, and coal characteristics.1 These estimates are based on limited data, however. Arsenic additions from the facilities will deposit an esti- mated total of between 600 and 5,000 pounds of arsenic per year. Unknown fractions of this would enter Lake Powell. The effects of this amount of arsenic on both terrestrial and aquatic portions of the food chain are largely unknown. Additional toxic substances will be emitted from the power plants, including about one thousand pounds of fluorides per year.2 Manganese, chromium, nickel, and lead will be emitted in quantities comparable to the mercury releases. Expected ambient concentrations and effects of these materials on the ecosystem are ^tandiford, D.R., L.D. Potter, and D.E. Kidd. Mercury in the Lake Powell Ecosystem, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin No. 1. Los Angeles, Calif.: University of California, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 1973, p. 16. 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Final Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 Vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976, p. 111-65. 260 ------- TABLE 4-41: SUMMARY OF MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS Class A Impacts : Class B Impacts : Class C Impacts : Unknown: 1975-1980 Increased recrea- tional use of high plateaus Illegal shooting Damage and harass- ment associated with ORV's in desert areas, habitat fragmen- tation, land-use, road kill, and harassment (urban influence) zone Direct habitat removal Grazing losses 1980-1990 Increased recrea- tional use of high plateaus Illegal shooting Damage and harass- ment associated with ORV's in desert areas, ur- ban influence, altered springs and seep discharge Direct habitat re- moval Grazing losses "Criteria" air pol- lutant emissions Local eutrophica- tion of Escalante River by municipal sewage discharge Addition of mer- cury and other trace elements to Lake Powell 1990-2000 Increased recrea- cional use of high plateaus Damage and harass- ment associated with ORV's in desert areas, ur- ban influence, al- tered springs and seep discharge Direct habitat re- moval Grazing losses "Criteria" air pollutant emis- si OTIS Addition of trace elements to Lake Powell ORV = off-the-road vehicle largely unknown. Much larger quantities of the materials will either be removed from stack gases and deposited in the evapora- tive settling ponds or placed in ash disposal sites. 4.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts Table 4-41 summarizes the impacts discussed in the preceding sections under three classes. Class C impacts are those which affect very small proportions (less than 3 percent) of the total 261 ------- available habitat of any given kind, and/or occur infrequently, although the effect may be locally severe. Class B impacts are more widespread and have effects which may noticeably alter the composition of the ecosystem or selectively affect a particular species. Class A impacts can potentially affect large proportions of a given habitat type or have severe impacts on populations of one or more species. The cumulative impact of energy resource development on the ecosystem will most likely be to lower the diversity of wildlife locally, increase erosion, and contribute to the decline of several species. Specific populations of game animals and fish will ex- perience selectively heavy stresses and decline in number. These impacts will result from the combined effects of direct habitat loss, habitat fragmentation, and diffuse human disturbances. Im- pacts on several major species are summarized in Table 4-42. Major contributors to these disturbances will include the following; habitat degradation in such areas as the high plateaus due to dif- fuse recreational activity; subdivision of lands for recreational developments; growth of residential and commercial land use and its influence on the quality of surrounding habitat; increased illegal hunting; and increased fishing in high plateau lakes. Although these disturbances will not break down the struc- tural and functional integrity of the ecosystems, local areas will probably experience internal adjustments affecting individual species populations. For example, development activities and anticipated increases in sport hunting for predators may minimize the importance of the mountain lion as a natural predator of mule deer, but coyotes (and possibly wild dogs) will assume greater importance as predators. Cumulative adverse influences are also expected to result in a long-term decline of the Kaiparowits deer herd and probably will hasten the loss of antelope from East Clark Bench.1 Illegal shooting could, over the long term, cause declines in populations of the larger birds of prey. Aquatic ecosystems in the Dixie National Forest may also be locally degraded unless access is con- trolled; this stress, coupled with heavy fishing pressure, will have a severe impact on resident reproducing trout populations. With the introduction of the energy facilities and projected population increase of approximately 40,000 people, some long- term alterations of vegetation may occur on a local scale. influence of the scenario's impacts on habitat in the Dixie National Forest and on the benchlands just east of the Esca- lante River could render them less suitable or unsuitable for rein- troduction of elk and antelope, now under consideration by the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources. 262 ------- H U w o o fa W O U CO CO D W EH E-« O U W W \ CO EH H O O ft & K C-x 3 P> M -4 B 0 i) jg H c a £ BH-4 7! 6-H 0 • OB 9 Hi • H 0 h4 0 44 3 i4 4J •O'O - DT 0 » quo « iJ C 0 -4 9 0 U U A, S.— -1 I4J 3 U 0 c a « JJ 01 B S 0-40 c o a 0 b -H 00 0-4 > 5 v S"-* « c jj e 9 JS •- OIH 0) h IM If rk Benc ntially 4J • B 3 O 0 s& B B 0 0 p-i B M B «l Q J= S. X •o ti c c 0 0 OQ X ^r Jac£\| JJ -. JJ -4 0 B tl 0 O •2 £ 0 Cla H 11 l>£ K -4 l M Bl « A JJ O fi C Jj S.-5 £ 3 e v 0 « von ti 552^32 6? SlS. b jj o e>o-4 • cl X-4 U 3,? B M S0 a 0 l-i h C S.'f ac u •52 I'S tisl • 5-S 1 • ±t H C B H H — 4 ' e •" S 1258 B B -H c u C T L\| a •<-< 0 M B -t 9 V L> 4 •"4 B £t 0 B - .H 0 ssg £8S a 0 0 B c g pi ffi X c jj 0 0 -4 S JJ k 0 JJ si su * w jJ 0 • B B §0 -* Probal ceasal activj 0 0 u c M B-J! B JJ £•3. a « c •H «0 X JJH cr Js e .84 led 11 legs controlle L decline C > H --00 OHO 0 - IM B 0 0 BI •H e c u S 8 0 4 0 IM IM 9 • •O * £ JJ "v C JJ u £ c O 01 Lization t uptrend b managem Stabl: •light fores* 0 jj v •§ £ 0 0 •• 2 •H 0 B •U 0 to modera ry practic 4J JJ £ B 3«2 ^ 0 Scl> 0 £ h ^ V «4 O 4J J M •H 9 0 -4 B > £C-^ •H J-» h u \|S 2 •H S •-« 1 0 3 S o 1 h £ •o c h •0 g u B s b 0 «-f 0 4J 4>1 8IS • SISS? 0 0 C 0 V JJ IM H JJ •5^ J3 B M? §«-- •S&SS U V U • (1 0 IT O.4 > H b4 0 B "2 M J53 !' di J3 B C •H U M 1) -H B £ $ B e 20009 I U-H.fi 0 0 D c o « 3 •o §•' M •H 9 4J B IE 0 a M 51 WJZ 0 ° J c 0 h « 0 & u c c 0 O • JJ B 0 0 0 -b* ' U h 0 H -H JJ A D 0 -4 0 C H B JJ 0 O S -O 0>--J Q. CO JJ -H C , * 0 > C -H "O l« •A 0 lued decl led by ha 3 natural be shores -H O JJ 0 jj a ^ e h o> 0 0 DJ > -c 32S 000 M ki 0 S 0 M Sgl e-Is 000 I-4M IM 0 Ol 0-H C §ax -* S.8 > u Le elimina icing lake > unless s Z<6 e 52- o au b c tl b M T) ~ —4 U • 3 B £5 a H Ol 0-H .JJ IM 0 O c o\| -H iH 11 J"^ B -4 C 9 0 0 V- e "S?8 ,J..X 0 — 3 14 XJj£<§ 83 JJ H 00? k4 M H 0 ffi JJ Cu A . 1 1 1 0 z , •H 0 9 •D > ft T C s, M O - 'Ji II s U rn •i jj r- May b< absent 1 fishii 0 1 B E u 0 « 0) X M —4 JJ £ B 0 B •4 B "g. k 0 iH U —4 e -o B X c B ,£ c J \| H E- 0 9H SO 0 U u • S ^ 4J D AJ •D •D C 0 0 •H U a 0 0 U 0 • 0 U TJ §1 0 E Io •H e 0 0 9 B 0 JJ C U V £ 0 4J ki •D B IB B 0 B U B 0 0 b I • B 4J C -»4 O u e s 8& .£ = 1 H ft> 0 h 263 ------- Many of the immediate and direct impacts of construction activities and facility siting will probably have only short-term effects; other impacts may have more lasting effects. Some plant communities will be disrupted by immediate stresses and will under- go plant replacement or succession. Succession is not well under- stood in desert plant communities, perhaps because of the very long time required for change.1 A series of successional stages will probably occur on those sites directly disrupted by energy development and damaged by ORV use and subsequent erosion, and their return to a climax stage of development may take many years.2 One potential long-term effect from energy development on future ecological systems may come from eventual accumulation of trace elements emitted from the power plants and entering the aquatic food chain in Lake Powell. However, incomplete under- standing of the dynamics of the movements of trace elements (e.g., mercury) into and through the ecosystem make it difficult to pre- dict the potential concentration in fish, although some studies indicate potentially significant increases. Also, the degradation of dikes enclosing the waste materials deposited in evaporation ponds may allow release of toxic compounds which will eventually enter the biological components of the ecological system. Opening the area by providing easier access will be considered a benefit by some groups and a detriment by others. The wilder- ness character of the area will be largely lost; however, larger numbers of people will have access to the recreational and scenic benefits of the area. 4.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE A major benefit resulting from the hypothetical energy devel- opment called for in the Kaiparowits/Escalante scenario will be the production of 6,000 MWe of electricity. This benefit will accrue more to people outside than inside the areas. Locally, the principal potential benefits are economic, including substan- tial increases in per capita income, retail and wholesale trade, and secondary economic development. In addition, Kane and Gar- field Counties can receive substantial new tax revenues, and the 1 On dune sands in Idaho, a situation somewhat analogous to a desert, Chadwick and Dalke recognized five stages of succession: Stage 1 lasting about 30 years; Stage 2 lasting 20 to 70 years; Stage 3 lasting 50 to 70 years; and Stage 4 lasting 700 to 900 years before the final or climax stage becomes dominant. Chadwick, H.W., and P.D. Dalke. "Plant Succession on Dune Sands in Fremont County, Idaho." Ecology, Vol. 46 (Autumn 1965), pp. 765-780. 2Whitfield, C.J., and H.L. Anderson. "Secondary Succession in the Desert Plains Grassland." Ecology, Vol. 19 (April 1938), pp. 171-80. 264 ------- state of Utah could benefit noticeably. These financial benefits can support the expansion of public services and professional staffs presently needed in southern Utah. Some persons, both locals and tourists, will consider new roads in previously inac- cessible areas to be a benefit. The impact analysis indicates that social, economic, and polit- ical impacts which could be expected in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area as a result of energy resource development tend to be a func- tion of: the labor and capital intensity of the energy facilities and, when multiple facilities are involved, of scheduling their construction. These factors determine the pace and extent of migration of people to the scenario area as well as the financial and managerial capability of local governments to provide services and facilities for the increased population. Labor forces required for construction and operation of the scenario facilities increase the population in the scenario area directly and indirectly. More labor is required for construction of the facilities than for operation; thus, construction of the facilities can be scheduled to minimize the population instability. The capital intensity of the facilities determines the amount of revenue generated; a prop- erty tax and sales tax are tied to the capital costs of the facil- ities, and royalty payments are tied to the value of the coal. At the Kaiparowits/Escalante site, towns are small, a factor that tends to exacerbate negative impacts associated with population increases. If some of the labor force includes young people who had previously migrated out of the area as well as local unemployed laborers, population increases would not be as great nor would they include as many strangers to the community. Utilization of the local labor force mitigates negative social and political im- pacts . Many of the major negative impacts that can be anticipated if all the energy facilities are constructed according to the hypo- thesized time schedule will result either directly or indirectly from the expected 300 percent population increase for southern Utah by 1990. Some local governments will be hard-pressed initially to provide the services required. Existing school, housing, health, and public safety services will be initially overwhelmed by the influx of workers and their families. Local governments in the area are generally not well-equipped to respond to the needs of this new population. However, planning capabilities are being up- graded, and the adequacy of existing controls, such as zoning, is now being assessed. These problems are surmountable, and the economic impacts of population increases will be predominantly positive by 1990. With the exception of Page, long-term revenues produced by the development will be more than adequate to pay for the necessary services and the required additions to the 265 ------- professional staffs of local governments.1 Since it will not share in the direct tax revenues produced by the energy facilities, Page will subsidize services to those workers and their families who choose to live there. Newcomers could outnumber natives very early during the development. As indicated in the social and cultural impacts discussion, the lifestyles of the natives and newcomers are likely to be quite different. While small in terms of numbers, at least some of the natives will consider the resultant political and social changes detrimental. Air quality impacts of energy development in the Kaiparowits/ Escalante area result from emissions of pollutants from both the power plant and those associated with the population. At the Kaiparowits/Escalante site, SOa emissions from a power plant with no emission controls would meet the NSPS for S02 because coal in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area has a low sulfur content (0.5 per- cent) . However, the complex terrain and poor dispersion potential characteristic of the scenario area would contribute to high ground-level concentrations of pollutants as a consequence of plume impaction. Even with emission control, the Escalante plant may produce air impacts which exceed significant deterioration standards "or'a Class II area. Visibility will also be adversely affected, especially during winter stagnation periods. Given the extensive recreational use of the area, particularly in the num- erous nearby national parks and forests, this impact must be con- sidered significant. Power plant scrubbers are rated as 80 percent efficient in removing S02 in this analysis. However, scrubbers with 95 percent efficiency would be required to insure that no violation of Class II SC-2 standards occurs. Elimination of scrubbers would result in significant violations of anticipated nondegradation air quality standards and would violate short-term (3-hour and 24-hour) pri- mary and secondary air quality standards. Water impacts associated with energy development in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area are caused both by the water require- ments of, and effluents produced by a power plant. Water related impacts associated with population increases are minor in compari- son to those associated with a power plant. Since most of the water use by a power plant is for cooling, impacts which result from water consumption can be reduced greatly by the use of "inter- mediate wet" (a combination of wet and dry) cooling technology. Effluents from the facilities will be ponded to protect water 1There might be problems due to a lag between the need to pro- vide services and receipt of income. However, this problem is lessened by Utah's law permitting local governments to require the prepayment of taxes. 266 ------- quality in the scenario area. However, the large withdrawals of water from Lake Powell may have a salt concentrating effect on the Colorado River. Ecological impacts associated with energy development in the Kaiparowiirs/Escalante area depend on land use, population increases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes. Loss of habitat on land used by facility structures and by the population is permanent. Habitat fragmentation and recreational activities will further reduce the carrying capacity of the characteristic community types (desert shrub grassland, desert grassland, and pinyon-juniper woodland) to support wildlife, both game and non- game animals. Reduced stream flow due to water withdrawn for energy development will reduce the amount of aquatic and riparian habitat, which is already very limited in the area. In addition, inadequately treated municipal sewage could cause excessive plank- ton growth. Additions of mercury into the Lake Powell ecosystem will exacerbate the problem of current mercury concentrations in some predatory fish which exceed the FDA standards. Finally, chronic or acute damage to crops and native plants in the scenario area may result due to poorly dispersed SOa emissions from, the power plants. 267 ------- CHAPTER 5 THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE NAVAJO/FARMINGTON AREA 5.1 INTRODUCTION Energy development proposed in the Navajo/Farmington area includes coal mining, electrical power generation, Lurgi and Synthane high-British thermal unit (Btu) gasification, Synthoil liquefaction, an underground uranium mine, and a uranium mill. The area within which development is to take place is shown in Figure 5-1; Figure 5-2 shows the location of specific facilities. Electricity generated in the area will be transported via extra- high voltage transmission lines to demand centers in Arizona, California, and New Mexico. The synthetic gas will be fed into existing pipeline networks in the Southwest, and the synthetic liquids will be pipelined to western and/or midwestern refineries. These facilities will be constructed between 1977 and 2000. The construction timetable and the technologies to be deployed are shown in Table 5-1.1 In all four impact sections of this chapter (air, water, social and economic, and ecological), the factors that produce impacts are identified and discussed separately for each energy facility type. In the air and water sections, the impacts caused by those factors are also discussed separately for each facility type and, in combination, for a scenario in which all facilities are constructed according to the scenario schedule. In the social and economic and ecological sections, only the combined impacts of the scenario are discussed. This distribution is made because social, economic, and ecological effects are, for the most part, higher order impacts. Consequently, facility-by-facility impact discussions would have been repetitive in nearly every respect. JWhile this hypothetical development may parallel develop- ments proposed by the Public Service Company of New Mexico, Utah International, Inc., Western Gasification Company, Consolidation Coal Company, El Paso Natural Gas Company and others, it must be stressed that the development identified here is hypothetical. As with the others, this scenario was used to structure the assessment of a particular combination of technologies and existing conditions. 268 ------- COLORADO Topography Above 9000 feet 8000-9000 feet 7000-8000 feet 6000- 7000 feet 5000-6000 feet Below 5000 feet r FIGURE 5-1: THE NAVAJO/FARMINGTON SCENARIO AREA 269 ------- COLORADO " O I Si 3! »j UTE MOUNTAIN -L. INDIAN RESERVATION _ {—..—•»—»._._._.._._.—.,_._._ Farmington Coal Mine — •— Transmission Line === Pipeline iHHiHtui'i Conveyor FIGURE 5-2: THE LOCATION OF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES IN THE NAVAJO/FARMINGTON AREA 270 ------- TABLE 5-1: RESOURCES AND HYPOTHESIZED FACILITIES AT NAVAJO/FARMINGTON Resources Cosl ^ (billions of tons) Resources 2 . 4 Proved Reserves 1.9 Technologies Extraction Four surface area mines ox varying capacity using draglines One underground uranium mine Conversion One Lurgi coal gasification plant operating at 73% thermal efficiency; nickel-catalyzed methanation process; Glaus plant H2S removal; wet forced- draft cooling towers One 3,000 MWe power plant consisting of four 750 MWe turbine generators; 34% plant efficiency; 80% efficient lime- stone scrubbers; 99% efficient electrostatic precipitator; and wet forced-draft cooling towers One Synthane coal gasification plant operating at 80% thermal efficiency; nickel-catalyzed methanation process; Glaus plant H2S removal; wet forced- draft cooling towers One Synthoil coal liquefaction plant operating at 92% thermal efficiency; Claus plant H2S removal; wet forced-draft cooling towers One Uranium Mill Transportation Coal Conveyor belts from mines to each facility Gas One 30-inch pipeline Oil One 16-inch pipeline Electricity Two EHV lines CHARACTERISTICS Coal Heat Content 8,580 Btu's/lb Moisture 16 % Volatile Matter 30 % Fixed Carbon 34 % Ash 19 % Sulfur 0.7 % FACILITY SIZE 7 . 3 MMtpy 12.2 MMtpy 6 . 6 MMtpy 12.2 MMtpy 1,100 mt 250 MMscfd 1,500 MWe 1,500 MWe 250 MMscfd 100,000 bbl/day 1,000 mt 250 MMcf 100,000 bbl/day 765 V COMPLETION DATE 1979 1984 1989 1989 1935 1980 1934 1985 1990 2000 1985 1980 2000 1934 FACILITY SERVICED Lurgi Plant Power Plant Synthane Synthoil Uranium Mill Lurgi Plant Synthcil Power Plant Btu's/lb = British thermal units per pound MMtpy = million tons per year mt = metric tons MMscfd = million standard cubic feet per day H2S = hydrogen sulfide MWe = megawatt-electric bbl/day = barrels per day MMcf = million cubic feet EHV = extra-high voltage kV = kilovolts aNielsen, George F. Keystone Coal Industry Manual: 1974. New York, N.Y.: Mining Information Service, 1.9/4, p~I477; proved reserves are calculated as 80 percent of the defined resources. Values are for strippable coal from the Navajo field. 271 ------- In addition to this hypothetical energy development, the Navajo Indian Irrigation Project will become operational during the late 1970's. Because of its size, this development is also taken into account when impacts are analyzed. Two distinctive cultures are found in the Navajo/Farmington area: the Indian culture centered on the Navajo Reservation, and the predominantly non-Indian culture centered in Farmington and Aztec. A similar division exists in the economy of the area. San Juan County's non-Indian economy is diversified among several sectors of activity. Wholesale and retail trade, gov- ernment, transportation and communications, mining, manufacturing, and agriculture are among the principal employers within the county. The Indian economy is predominantly agricultural. The county is governed by a three-member board of commis- sioners and served by a professional manager. In 1975, a Plan- ning and Research Department was established, primarily to assess and respond to needs arising from new developments within the county. Services provided in the unincorporated sections of the county include police (a sheriff's department), fire (provided jointly with the state), and highway construction and maintenance. Public health care and public assistance are provided jointly by the county and state. There are three incorporated urban areas in the county: Farmington, Aztec, and Bloomfield. Basic public services are provided in all three, and a separate school district serves each. Farmington1s municipal power plant provides electricity to these communities and the rural area. The communities are comparatively isolated in northwest New Mexico, despite a history of continued growth and the widespread construction of permanent masonry buildings. No rail line services this area, and the prin- cipal highways serving the region are winding, two lane roads that make movement of large equipment and building materials dif- ficult. Although historically conservative, Farmington and surrounding communities are nevertheless currently involved in expanding government services to improve water supplies, sewage treatment, airport facilities, and other municipal and county projects. Although there are many unresolved questions concerning relationships between Indians and non-Indians (the applicability of state laws to Indians, the applicability of Indian laws to non-Indians, etc.), the Navajcs and Utes maintain local sover- eignty over their reservation lands. The Navajo Reservation, on which several energy facilities will be located, is governed 272 ------- by a Tribal Cpuncil. l Members of the Council are elected from Chapters into which the Reservation is divided. A Chairman of the Tribal Council is elected at large. Within the past few years, the Navajos have expanded the capabilities of the tribal government, largely in direct response to prospective energy development. For example, the Council is now served by a professional planning staff, and environmental and tax commissions have been established. The reservation is predominantly rural. Shiprock, the only urban area in the New Mexico portion of the reservation, is un- incorporated and governed by the Tribal Council. The area to be developed is in the San Juan River Basin. The San Juan, one of several perennial streams in the area, will be the source of water for the proposed energy facilities. Al- though there is groundwater in the area, it is limited in quantity and generally of poor quality. Rainfall averages only about 7 inches per year. This limits the amount and variety of vegetation, and the area contains most- ly desert grasslands and shrubs. In some locations, overgrazing by Nava jo-owned sheep has led to elimination of vegetation and serious soil erosion. Air quality in the area is already affected by the San Juan and Four Corners power plants, refineries, and a variety of in- dustrial facilities. Blowing dust also affects existing air quality. Selected descriptive characteristics of the area are summarized in Table 5-2. In each of the following sections, additional information is introduced as needed in the analysis of impacts. 5.2 AIR IMPACTS2 5.2.1 Existing Conditions A. Background Pollutants Air quality in the Navajo/Farmington area is currently af- fected by numerous emission sources, the largest of which are Monroe E. Law and the American Indian. Indianapolis, Ind.: Bobbs-Merrill, 1973; and Cohen, Felix S., ed. Statutory Compilation of the Indian Law, Survey. Washington, D.C.: Gov- ernment Printing Office, 1940. 2The federal standards referred to in this section are those promulgated prior to the revisions mandated by the Clean Air Act Ammendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685. 273 ------- TABLE 5-2: SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NAVAJO/FARMINGTON AREA Environment Elevation Precipitation Air Stability Vegetation Social and Economic (San Juan County) Land Ownership Indian Federal State Private Population Density Unemployment3 Incomeb 6,000-9,000 feet 6-8 inches average annually Air stagnation during fall and winter Sparse grasses and shrubs with barren areas, pinyon and juniper in foothills 60 % 30 % 5 % 5 % 11.3 per square mile 8.2 % $3,147 per capita annual a!973 data. b!972 data. the Four Corners and San Juan Power Plants (Figure 5-1). Mea- surements of the concentrations of criteria pollutants1 taken in 1974 in the Four Corners area indicate that 24-hour average particulate levels exceed both federal and New Mexico standards Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air quality standards are in force: carbon monoxide, nonmethane hydrocarbons (HC), nitrogen dioxide, oxidants, particulates, and sulfur dioxide. Although only nonmethane HC are technically covered by the standards, the more inclusive term "hydrocarbons" is gener- ally used. The HC standard serves as a guide for achieving oxidant standards. 274 ------- due to blowing dust.1 However, measurements taken at the site of the proposed Western Gasification Company gasification plants2 do not indicate violations of either particulate or sulfur diox- ide (S02) standards. Based on measurements, the annual average background levels chosen as inputs to the air dispersion model are: SQ2, 20 micrograms per cubic meter (yg/m3); particulates, 40 pg/m3; and nitrogen dioxide (N02), 10 yg/m3.3 B. Meteorological Conditions The worst dispersion conditions for the Navajo/Farmington area are associated with stable air conditions, low wind speeds (less than 5-10 miles per hour [mph]), unchanging wind direction, and relatively low mixing depths.4 These conditions are likely to increase concentrations of pollutants from both ground level and elevated sources. Since worst-case dispersion conditions differ JUtah Engineering Experiment Station. Air Pollution Inves- tigation in the Vicinity of the Four Corners and San Juan Power Plants, Progress Report. Salt Lake City, Utah: March 1973, and amended by letter January 1974. As cited in U.S., Department of the Interior. Draft Environmental Statement for Proposed Modifi- cation of Four Corners Power Plant and Navajo Mine. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975. 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Western Gasification Company (WESCO) Coal Gasification Project and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New Mexico; Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976. 3These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's best professional judgment. They are used as the best estimates of the concentrations to be expected at any particular time. Measure- ments of hydrocarbons (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO) are not avail- able in the rural areas. However, high-background HC levels have been measured at other rural locations in the West and may occur here. Background CO levels are now assumed to be relatively low. Measurements of long range visibility in the area are not available, but the average is estimated to be 60 miles. Others have estimated background visibility at 70-100 miles. See Nichelson, R. Progress Report, New Mexico Visibility Study. Santa Fe, N.M.: New Mexico, Environmental Improvement Agency, n.d. ^Mixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upward boundary of pollution dispersion. 275 ------- at each facility location, predicted annual average pollutant levels vary among locations, even if the pollutant sources are identical. Meteorological conditions in the area are generally unfavorable for pollution dispersion more than 40 percent of the time. Hence, plume impaction and limited mixing of plumes caused by temperature inversions at plume height can be expected to occur regularly.1 Good dispersion conditions are expected to occur about 30 percent of the time.2 As at most western sites, the potential for dispersion of pollutants in the Navajo/Farmington area varies considerably by season. During spring and summer, strong low-level winds (15-25 mph) enhance dispersion potential. During winter months, dis- persion potential is often limited because of persistent high pressure areas near the surface over the Colorado River Plateau. 5.2.2 Factors Producing Impacts The primary emissions sources in the Navajo/Farmington sce- nario are a power plant, three synthetic fuels conversion facili- ties (Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil), supporting surface coal mines, an underground uranium mine and mill, and population in- creases. The focus of this section is on emissions of criteria pollutants from the energy facilities.3 Table 5-3 lists the amounts of the five criteria pollutants emitted by each of the facilities. In all cases, most emissions come from the conver- sion facilities rather than the mines. Most mine-related pollu- tion originates from diesel engine combustion products, primarily nitrogen oxides (NOX), hydrocarbons (HC), and particulates. Al- though dust suppression techniques are hypothesized to be used National Climatic Center. Wind Dispersion by Pasquill Stability Classes, Star Program for Selected U.S. Cities. Ash- ville, N.C.: National Climatic Center, 1975. 2Jordan, R.A. Joint Ambient Air Monitoring Project, Interim Report. Alburquerque, N.M.: Public Service Company of New Mexico, September 1973, and amended January 1974. As cited in U.S., Department of the Interior. Draft Environmental Statement for Proposed Modification of Four Corners Power Plant and Navajo Mine. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975. 3Air impacts associated with population increases are dis- cussed forward (Section 5.2.3) as those impacts relate to the scenario, which includes all facilities constructed according to the hypothesized schedule. 276 ------- TABLE 5-3: EMISSIONS FROM FACILITIES' (pounds per hour) FACILITIESb Electrical Generation0 Mine Plant Lurgi Mine Plant Synthane Mine Plant SynthoilS Mine Plant Uranium Underground Mine Mill PARTICULATES 17d 5,020 i 8d N J 7d 8 i 10d 1,254 0.16 40 S02 11 9,760 5 516 5 3,524 7 1,171 0.36 1.03 NOX 144 18,900- -31,500e 68 649 63 5,052 92 5,770 5 0.3 HC 17 524 8 47 f 7. 94f 11 1,688 0.5 0.05 CO 87 1,744 41 N 38 176 56 227 3 U S02 = sulfur dioxide NOx = oxides of nitrogen HC = hydrocarbons CO = carbon dioxide N = negligible U = unknown aThese levels of emissions would violate several New Mexico State New Source Performance Standards. "The Lurgi and Synthane gasification plants are 250 million standard cubic feet per day facilities with three emissions stacks at each plant. The Synthoil plant produces 100,000 barrels per day and has 24 stacks. White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Develop- ment Systems Report. Washington, B.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. °Assuming 99 percent electrostatic precipitators efficiency and 80 per- cent S02 scrubber efficiency. The S02 scrubber is also assumed to re- move 40 percent of NOX. These particulate emissions do not include fugitive dust. 6Range represents emissions assuming 0 and 40 percent NOX removal by scrubbers. These emissions do not include fugitive HC. ^Synthoil data have a high uncertainty because of the small capacity of bench scale test facilities built to date. The Solvent Refined Coal liquefaction process now appears likely to become commercial sooner, and more reliable pilot plant data are available. These data are reported in White et al. Energy From the West: ERDS Report, Chapter 3. 277 ------- in this scenario, some additional particulates will come from blasting, coal piles, and blowing dust.1 The largest single contributor to total emissions is the power plant for all pollutants except HC, in which case the Synthoil plant has the largest emissions (Table 5-3). For all criteria pollutants except carbon monoxide (CO), the Lurgi plant has the smallest total emissions. The hypothetical power plant, for which data in Table 5-3 were calculated, has four 750 megawatt-electric (MWe) boilers, each with its own stack.2 The boiler is equipped with an electro- static precipitator (ESP) which removes 99 percent of the partic- ulates and a scrubber which removes 80 percent of the S02 and from 0 to 40 percent of the NOX.3 For a power plant operating under these conditions, Table 5-4 gives emissions on the basis of a million Btu's of coal burned and compares them to the New Source Performance Standards (NSPS). Emissions of S02 more than meet NSPS.4 However, particulate emissions exceed these standards, and NOX emissions (assuming 40 percent removal by the scrubber) just meet NSPS. In order to meet NSPS, 99.4 percent particulates, 20 percent S02/ and 36 percent NOX removal would be required.5 In addition to emissions from the power plant itself, two 75,000-barrel oil storage tanks at the plant, with standard floating roof construction, will each emit up to 0.7 pound of HC per hour. Both the power plant and the three coal synthetic fuels facilities are cooled by wet forced-draft cooling towers. Each !The effectiveness of current dust suppression practices is uncertain. Research being conducted by the Environmental Protec- tion Agency (EPA) is investigating this question. The problem of fugitive dust from mines is discussed qualitatively in Chapter 10. 2Stacks are 500 feet high, have an exit diameter of 30.3 feet, mass flow rates of 2.6 x 106 cubic feet per minute, an exit velocity of 60 feet per second, and an exit temperature of 180°F. 3These efficiencies were hypothesized as reasonable estimates of current industrial practices; exact percentages are uncertain. 4NSPS limit the amount of a given pollutant a stationary source may emit; the limit is expressed relative to the amount of energy in the fuel burned. 5Section 109 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685 requires both an emissions limitation and a percentage reduction of S02, particulates, and NOX. Revised standards are to be established by the EPA. 278 ------- TABLE 5-4: COMPARISON OF EMISSIONS FROM POWER PLANT WITH NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS (pounds per million Btu) POWER PLANT Particulates S02a N0xb EMISSION 0.17 0.33 0.65-1.08 NSPS 0.1 1.2 0.7 NSPS - New Source Performance Standards Btu = British thermal unit S02 = sulfur dioxide NOX = oxides of nitrogen aNew Mexico standards require that 65 percent of the S02 be controlled. Data from White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West; Energy Resource Devel- opment Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming, Chapter 2. Range of NOX emissions assumes 0 and 40 percent NOX removal by the scrubber. cell in the tower circulates water at a rate of 15,330 gallons per minute (gpm) and emits 0.01 percent of its water as a mist. The circulating water has a total dissolved solids (TDS) content of 3,300 parts per million, which results in a salt emission rate of 21,200 pounds per year for each cell.1 Underground uranium mining operations produce dust in the mine tunnels and crosscuts. Radon gas (Rn-222) and its daughters are emitted from the exposed surfaces in the mine and are pres- ent in greater concentrations than dust. The dust and radio- nuclides generated by the mining process are emitted into the atmosphere through exhaust ventilation shafts. This air flow dilutes the pollutants to a concentration well within federal and state regulatory standards.2 The air emerges from the vent :The power plant has 64 cells, the Lurgi plant has 11, the Synthane plant has 6, and the Synthoil plant has 16. 2White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. 279 ------- shafts at a high velocity causing the pollutants to be dispersed rapidly into the atmosphere. The maximum emission rate of Rn-222 from the mine vent exhausts is about 2.94 curies per day for a 1,200 tons per day (tpd) mine.1 The primary radiological air emission from the 1,000 tpd uranium mill is also Rn-222; emissions have been estimated to be about 9,000 curies per year.2 5.2.3 Impacts This section describes air quality impacts which result from each type of conversion facility3 (Lurgi, Synthane, Synthoil, power plant, and a uranium mill) taken separately and from a scenario which includes construction of all facilities according to the hypothesized scenario schedule. For the power plant, the effect on air quality of hypothesized emission controls, alter- native emission controls, alternative stack heights, and alterna- tive plant sizes are discussed. The focus is on concentrations of criteria pollutants (particulates, S02, NOX, HC, and CO). See Chapter 10 for a qualitative description of sulfates, other oxidants, fine particulates, long-range visibility, plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, and cooling tower fogging and icing. A. Lurgi Impacts Few air quality impacts are associated with the construction phase of a Lurgi plant, although construction processes may in- crease wind-blown dust which currently causes periodic violations of 24-hour ambient particulate standards. Air quality impacts result primarily from the operation of the Lurgi facility. Table 5-5 summarizes the concentrations of four pollutants predicted to be produced by the Lurgi plant. These pollutants (particulates, S02, NOX, and HC) are regulated by federal and New Mexico state ambient air quality standards (also shown in Table 5-5). Based on these data, the typical con- centrations associated with the plant when added to existing 1White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,forthcoming, Chapter 5. 2Ibid. 3Air quality impacts caused by the mines are expected to be negligible in comparison with impacts caused by conversion facil- ities . 280 ------- in i un I-H1 CQ ^ CO Q K K Q 0 CJ u CO K tf JT M K ft. Z o EH Z i fc EH 2 f£ i "] ft. J CJ M ft, JH EH Q 5 O K o CJ f^ CQ I 1 Y2 £H « S o ET 12 T H d ° ? CM W < i-H CO (NCArH ZZ Z in LO O (Mint/") <^,3 1-H3IH 1-H3 ^ SlflW^iO (DO3 (00 3 ostiicx: 3xio 3x; o •r< d 1 T3 1 C 1 XI C 1 Si IH < ro r- (N CM< (N ro CM <; (N -o rn (0 O O CJ ft. CO Z E 01 •o •iH X o •H •o c 01 en o M JJ • H C II ^ o z c o •H JJ (0 IH O •H IH 01 JJ O •0 jJ C (0 0 4H •H C Cn •H 10 VH O C o •rH C 01 01 IH a n Q CO 01 rH jQ (0 O •rH rH a a (0 jj o c n < z Tl C 3 0 en 0 (0 XI 0) i (0 01 in 01 0 c •H o II z in c o IH (0 O 0 IH -O & II CJ a: 01 •H X o •H -o IH 3 rH 3 n n {N O W . ^, JJ -H rH -rH O Ifl UH C O • rH 4J (0 0 -H MH -H in (0 Cf •H in IH 3 ,— { (B O •H JJ 0) X! JJ O a XI 0) J3 ,[ 1 E 0 MH in O •H JJ (fl ^1 JJ C 0) o c 0 o rH 01 01 i-H 1 13 C 3 O V4 en T3 0) JJ 0 •H •a 0) In a 01 « 01 in 01 EH . in rH 01 01 i-H •a e 3 O rH en o (8 Q E IH 01 jJ I jJ IH 0 XI in <4H o in 01 jj « E •rH JJ in 0) jj in 0) 0) jj 0) o JJ T3 01 M 01 T3 •H in c o o 0) M (0 10 r-H 01 > 01 1-1 •d c 3 O Cn 0 (0 XI 01 Cn (0 01 > (fl H (0 3 C < x; jj rH 0) (0 XI 0) xi o jj o •H JJ rH O XI C 3 D< 01 ;_! jJ (0 O 0) 01 JJ D> o (fl IH M a 0) > O (0 JJ rH T3 (0 01 3 C C 01 C •H (0 in 01 0) •a xi jj ra 'O C M (fl (0 XI •O -M c (0 IH JJ 01 in xi jj >i 0 Jj •H in •— t 01 (fl E 3 -rH D1 JJ IH D1 •H C (0 -H DI JJ (0 c n 01 01 •H > Xj (0 (0 ^l 0 rH 14H (fl ^ 10 0) 'O T) ^ 01 (0 MH T3 C 0 (fl JJ JJ 10 ^1 01 rH 01 < U £ . >1 K1 IH rH (fl 01 'O »> C "H O JJ 0 0 0) 01 in a = in 0) •O ^l c id - 01 : IH >i (8 tl MH Ifl i-H g 01 •H S M ft. -d : C A it O! XI c Ifl 0 XI CJ • rH ct u 10 jj c (0 JJ 3 rH i— ( O a UH 0 10 jj C 0) £ 0) V4 u c •H 0) rH XI (3 ^ 0 rH 1— 1 (0 01 XI 01 (0 10 •0 10 •a c (0 jj in Q to ft. >-( (0 01 >1 I-l 01 0) o c o e (8 XI JJ 0 IH O E •a 01 •a 01 01 CJ x 01 rH (0 JJ 01 •• . j ] C • r-f > M M fc 01 JJ •H x: s E O M UH E 0 ^ 14H (0 JJ 10 •o 0 in 0 XI EH . 10 ^ \|-l 10 a rH (0 c 0 •H JJ ft) C 10 x; o 3 in * ^i •H (0 C (0 0 i-H O >. rH OJ > •H 4J fQ rH QJ ^ UH O 10 (8 0 18 0 JJ T3 0 •O •O (8 rH 10 JJ C 0 E C o •H J> c w ». • w D .. . U Q * C 0 Jj CP C •H J3 in (0 3 . JJ IH O Q. 0 os 10 E 0 jJ ^ to jj C 01 a 0 rH 0 0 O 0 0 3 0 in 0 K ^ 0i l-i 0 C w . JJ 10 0 S 01 Jj E 0 M &4 >, D" M 01 C u * CN IH 0 JJ a XI u * D1 C £jj o •j £ jj IH O 4H fc •>, O c 0 Cn c 0 JJ 0 0 jj 0 Ct< « C o o 0 M 18 [0 0 O M 3 0 in jj C (fl rH a § UH C (U (Jl 0 JJ •rH G HH 0 n 0 •o •iH X o rH rH 10 JJ 10 XI JJ •a 01 3 10 10 18 10 •rH JJ H o . X \|^ Cft 1 vc JJ id •O 0 IH D a id 0 e 10 -H •o id •a c id jj m M 3 0 X 1 f> 01 XI •o 281 ------- background levels, will be well below federal and state ambient air standards.l Table 5-5 also lists the prevention of significant deterio- ration (PSD) standards, which are the allowable increments of pollutants that can be added to areas of relatively clean air (i.e., areas with air quality better than that allowed by ambient air standards).2 "Class I" is intended to designate the cleanest areas, such as national parks and forests.3 Peak concentrations attributable to the Lurgi plant do not exceed Class II allowable increments. However, the Class I increment for 3-hour 862 emissions is exceeded. Since the plant exceeds one Class I increment, it would have to be located a sufficient distance from any Class I area to allow dilution of emissions by atmospheric mixing to required levels prior to their reaching such areas. The distance required for this dilution (which varies by facility type, size, emission controls, and meteorological conditions) in effect establishes a "buffer zone" around Class I areas.1* No proposed Class I areas are within 10 miles of the plant site, but Mesa Verde National Park and San Pedro Parks National Wilderness Area are mandatory Class I areas in the vicinity of the Navajo power plant. Chaco Canyon National Monument, about 20 miles to the southeast, is another potential Class I area (Figure 5-3). Potential air impacts are subject to the New Mexico state permit review system, which does not allow any facility develop- ment that threatens applicable state standards. If the operation of a plant will violate state standards, construction can be halted, and/or the plant may be required to install additional pollution control equipment. 2PSD standards apply only to particulates and SO2. 3The Environmental Protection Agency initially designated all PSD areas Class II and established a process requiring peti- tions and public hearings for redesignating areas Class I or Class III. A Class II designation is for areas which have mod- erate, well-controlled energy or industrial development and per- mits less deterioration than that allowed by federal secondary ambient standards. Class III allows deterioration to the level of secondary standards. "Analysis of buffer zone requirements is based on the poten- tial of many western areas to become Class I, either by redesig- nation or by Congressional requirement. Estimated sizes of buffer zones are not based on dispersion modeling. Note that the term buffer zone is in disfavor. We use it because we believe it accurately describes the effect of PSD requirements. 282 ------- COLORADO XI UTi MOUNTAIN ; 3 i-JSS^JO§fJWJISSffit!! J ^^ San Juan » Mine/Mill Burnham NewTbwn 5 10 miles 15 Canyon National Monument } J " . t 'jf^fe ^<^Ji?^ ^»£> "• ^ ^ "^ ! I ""V' "i?^-"L i J -<,.^^ t\. FIGURE 5-3: AIR IMPACTS OF ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE NAVAJO/FARMINGTON SCENARIO 283 ------- In a worst-case situation, expected to occur infrequently, the interaction of pollutants from the Lurgi plant and its asso- ciated mine is expected to cause background visibility (presently about 60 miles) be reduced to between 25 and 40 miles, depending on the amount of S02 converted to sulfates in the atmosphere.1 B. Synthane Impacts Typical and peak concentrations of four criteria pollutants from the proposed Synthane gasification plant are summarized in Table 5-6. No federal or state ambient standard will be violated by this facility. The Synthane plant will exceed some of the allowable incre- ments for PSD. Peak concentrations from the Synthane plant will violate Class I PSD standards for 24-hour and 3-hour S02. The PSD violation would require a buffer zone between the plant and any Class I area. Current Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations would require a buffer zone of about 5 miles for the Synthane plant. C. Synthoil Impacts Table 5-7 lists typical plant concentrations, peak plant concentrations, and peak combined concentrations from the Synth- oil liquefaction plant and surface mine. These data show that the only violation from the Synthoil facilities (plant or plant/ mine combination) will be HC emission levels, which violate both federal and state standards. They are more than 30 times greater than New Mexico's standard. This facility will not violate any Class II PSD increments. Peak concentrations from the Synthoil plant will exceed Class I PSD increments for 24-hour particulate and SO2 increments. In addition, typical concentrations from the plant will exceed the 24-hour S02 increment. These concentrations would require a 16- mile buffer zone between plant and any Class I area. D. Power Plant Impacts Because construction processes may increase windblown dust, periodic violations of 24-hour National Ambient Air Quality Stan- dards (NAAQS) for particulates can be expected to increase during power plant construction. No other air quality impacts are associated with the construction of a power plant. LShort-term visibility impacts were investigated using a "box-type" dispersion model. This particular model assumes that all emissions occurring during a specified time interval are uni- formly mixed and confined in a box that is capped by a lid or stable layer aloft. A lid of 500 meters was used. SO2. to sulfate conversion rates of 10 percent and 1 percent were modeled. 284 ------- z; o EH O 3 EH •< EH O H EH EH O D M i-H1 U J -H o e PH — I in pa i Q j; tn o K Q z tn tn z o H EH Z W U z 0 u w EH Z w H Q ? X w M tn 01 u M en tn 5 u 0 u M x w E S W z x K H ^ Q Z 0 K U U CB w s 5 E"1 z s ^ ^ -2 di o g & w < C^ 1^ OrHCN •<< < r-H ro CNC^rH ZZ Z tn in o (Ninin << < rH (N Z Z Z oooo ooo oo o tOtDrHin VOtOO OO £> rH rH CM r-O rH CN rH » O O OOO VD in o o ^ rH fO rH rH h rH in o o in o o [^ tD OD VD O VO CN rn I— 1 rH in o CN r^ ro vr> z z z z ... O fO OD O ^J* O i-HrH OOO CX>O O . * . * • « . * m CN T rH rO rH in o CA rH . . * . 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CM VH QJ JJ a 10 u Cr C H E O U JJ VH O £ u c OJ <-. Cn O t Z c o to en c O JJ 0) 10 10 -H TJ VH U • JJ TJ OJ rH 01 > £. 10 TJ 10 O VH -H JJ 10 rH JC 01 U QJ QJ JJ •U VH O 0) VH > TJ 10 3 a C C 3 - O (0 C 01 • -H o 01 (0 C JJ 01 10 C C VH >1 1) JJ -H OJ tO JJ £. 3 > E -H JJ rH VH C tO rH rH M O OJ (0 C O VH U 3 (0 CL -H VH tT-C OJ > 3 JJ MH JJ C O VH O -H bj to •H IH C tO QJ to Z - JJ JC JJ • C JJ JJ c E w to C O OJ O • rH 0) E JH D tl •rH 01 QJ >4H -fl 01 VH E E e o oi •• o to -H C VH . n JJ -H 10 U ^J rH . (0 Cn QJ (0 D C VH C i-H JJ QJ 0) -H J2 10 - en TJ Cn 10 T3 C O 0) 10 3 O VJ MH VH O QJ JJ JJ QJ rH 10 Cn -H O > rH Q) C C JJ 10 10 J= -H H JC «H H H QJ tO O Q) O JC 10 •4H >JH JJ • ^ 0] OJ 10 QJ IH tfl 01 JJ TJ TJ VH 01 • -H = H 10 QJ JJ X >i 10 -I-l O VH Tt tO O O 10 C TJ ^ Qj rH T! 10 VH QJ rH C JJ 10 rH K a O 01 -T3 tO U C C W JJ QJ rH 10 O E 10 10 i-H JJ -H QJ -C = < 01 JJ JJ -p 10 03 TJ D C >, TJ to >,a. to E rH 10 JJ 3 = to c » >l > • C. Q) 03 H -rl VH O E 10 (0 JJ 10 3 (Jy E o 0) 01 o to •H Q) >t rH -H VH QJ " D a o] VH VH > jj = 01 QJ -H 0) M •£ VH (X (0 Q u E l(-jj CT* 1 VC JJ 10 T3 Q) VH 3 to 10 01 rl to • H TJ VH to Tl C 10 JJ to u VH 3 O 1 m OJ EH 13 286 ------- The majority of air quality impacts result from the opera- tion of a power plant and depend on the degree of emission con- trol imposed. Concentrations resulting from a base case, where control equipment is hypothesized to remove 80 percent of the S02 and 99 percent of all particulates, are discussed first, fol- lowed by a discussion of the effects on ambient air concentrations of alternative emission controls, alternative stack heights, and alternative plant sizes. (1) Hypothesized Emission Control Table 5-8 summarizes typical and peak concentrations of four criteria pollutants predicted to be produced by a power plant (3,000 MWe, 500-foot stack, 80 percent S02 removal, and 99 percent particulate removal). Peak concentrations from the plant will violate New Mexico's ambient air standard for 24-hour NO2 levels. No other federal or state ambient standard will be violated by this facility and its associated mine. This facility does, how- ever, exceed several allowable increments for PSD Class I. Class I 24-hour particulate increments and all SO2 increments will be exceeded by plant peak concentrations. Class II increments for 24-hour particulates will just be met by the plant but exceeded by the the plant/mine combination. These PSD violations would require buffer zones between the plant and any Class I area. Current EPA regulations would re- quire a 58-mile buffer zone for the power plant. Nearby areas which have recently been designated Class I include Mesa Verde National Monument and San Pedro Parks National Wilderness Area. (2) Alternative Emission Controls The base case control for the Navajo power plant assumed an S02 scrubber efficiency of 80 percent and an ESP efficiency of 99 percent. The effect on ambient air concentrations of three additional emission control alternatives is shown in Table 5-9. These alternatives include a 95 percent efficient SC>2 scrubber with a 99 percent efficient ESP; an 80 percent efficient SO2 scrubber with an ESP; an 80 percent efficient S02 scrubber with no ESP; and an alternative in which neither a scrubber nor an ESP are utilized. An examination of Table 5-9 reveals violations of NAAQS and Class II increments occur only when controls are removed alto- gether for total suspended particulates (TSP), SO2, or both. Removal of the SO2 scrubber results in violations of NAAQS sec- ondary standards for 3-hour SO2, and all Class II PSD increments except annual S02. Removal of the ESP results in violations of all NAAQS and Class II PSD increments for TSP. The base case control meets all applicable standards for S02 and TSP emissions. 287 ------- CM ~ 00 I in W 1-3 pa £L in D OS Q Z EH ca in H EH g rr H U O U O in EH Z u hH m >? jg u 0. M M tn tn ij u »— i tn tn u O u M X w 3 Z >, c: Q z 0 u u: \| 2 i § EH Z M fc U H s Z £ i n ^ < EH < pM lJ U H O g i u X S CO ,UTANT TNG TIME 3 u si > < O O O (N O ,H m r- r- m ^r en r-, ^ co m vo oo m i i i-~ ^- in co • 00 \0 m •o T3 O co CN G o m o o i— i rH o rH m o <•£> n m T ii ^o IN m ^ in in ^o ^ ^ • CN <>£> rH -31 C* CM CD rH 1 3 rH 3 k rH3 M •H c i T> T c i x ci x IB O O U t tn z re 10 c 0 XI IH ro U O tJ •>1 X II 0 I 0) •0 -H X 01 O fH •H Xl C 10 U C -H 01 fH Cn 0, o a •-P •H 4J C 0 c 11 1! CM C < z z c o •H 4J (0 IH O l_t 0> 4J 01 T! 4-1 f- 10 u MH -rl C fjl 10 01 O -H X c o O -H •rl 13 4J C M 01 3 > MH 01 fH H 3 a in II II D f tn o d< tn TJ c D O rl 01 Cn M r^ 10 O 10 C Xl O 01 DI Cr C 10 -H rl E 01 rl > 10 IB bi rH rl IB 01 D > c o c fC. in c o • -H O) 4J C IB •rl rl E 4-1 c •O 01 c u IB C 0 4J U C (0 Oi 10 rH iH 01 0) > 3 0> O fH a fa fH C IB 3 u o •H M 4-1 CP 01 X £ U 4J 10 O X! a -C IH 0) 01 4J .C 1 4J 4-1 iH E 0 O £ rl 10 MH MH in o c 0 in •H 0) 4J -P 10 10 M E •P -rl C 4J 0) in O 01 c 0 -P u in 0) • rH ja 4-1 01 C > 0) 10 01 J= -H rH -P Q. 1 T3 0) 0) C XI J= 3 4J o o rl 4-1 O TJ T3 0) 01 0) IH fH 4J 01 Xl O 13 IB •rl -H -P fO W 3 0' C XI rl 0-rl a u IH 4-1 0) 01 -P rl H 10 IB 10 0) in in in fH oi 0) 0) Cn £ > rl EH 0) IB CO rH fH 01 0) 3 IB 4J MH 01 • C fH O H 01 01 c — i E 3 O IB a 0 fO C C rH C 10 10 01 IB .C 0) > 4-1 rH 0) £ U Q 4J 01 -H rl >1 0) IB O fH U Oi E 01 U £ > 3 •O -H O O 0) 4-1 10 •H fO IB 01 X! 0) 01 3 O rl >1 CL x en 01 MH rl 4J O 01 00) C 01 Xi tn w -P 10 O O 0) 14 4J rl •• CL IB 4J 4J 10 0 O O 0) 4J C 4-1 S T3 01 tl O) 0) M 01 £ C IB TJ 4-> •H fl> IB E to Cn O O) IB 0) H T3 IH XI fc 0> in > c >, U U -1 IB fH 01 fO ra x c C 3 U U CN tl 01 4J a 10 X u K Cn c rl E O CM U O J3 Z tl O 0 4J •o 0) >1 4-1 O ti C 0) 0) > en c < o 10 C -rl O 4J C £ C U) IB 3 • O 01 rH >, o; in IB 4J X 4J • H 4- C 4J rH 10 0) r\| tl 4J 10 o oi in •P 01 ro c 4J O U 3 us 3 VH n crx: fH • a, 3 -P H r3 O M O fH 10 -H M a C IB IT3 01 -H 4-1 4J £ UH > c c 4-1 -P O M 01 IB co we -i oi m c a •H m -P * 0 Xl oi c 01 ti E S E 0) -P -H 0 IB -rl E -H > H 4-1 01 £ C MH rH H S W 03 Oi U C n c c E > 0) 01 rl -H 0 • DI T3 en IH tn O 0) 10 OI MH • M MH rl fH r-) 4J 01 Xl 01 -H O > IB tl c 4-1 IB 3 10 •• 0 . MH iH tl rH (0 O O 01 O rH 4J • MH MH IB IB Q 10 ID fa 01 rl HI O) * fO fa .c o) c -H r tl -P ffl 0 X >1 Id • 0) 4J O' IB C H EH C fH C 4J .C 10 O in io • to o fa in io 4-1 0) r-l M 4J 3E 10 to rH ro in s. : < tJ 0! 4J C tl . TJ io o 4^ a C • 4J MH )H 01 IB > in o I rH rH Q. 3 z 0) Q 10 0> 10 >, > tn c K to IH -rl Cu 0 IB IB 4J -H 01 E u 4-1 E tn •H 01 • 10 0) -rl rl Q, tl C 4J & in IB in 4-i = 0) 01 in >i H J tl >t IB to] o in ff r] 10 in IB iH 01 g 3 c 4J in •H MH 0) X H , in tl 01 a Xl 3 rl o in ^ XI c 0> en o ^J •H c MH o 10 0) • rO fO •H 01 X > O 0 E MH 0) O k H in IB -H ^ O 0) £ C o> o 01 in X 01 4-1 E •p in 3 in 0 id XI IB tl 01 to xt c g o 3 -H C a,-o E C 3 O in o in 01 IB in O 0) 3 X -P 4J in •- 4J 'a C 01 01 > in o 0) E tl 01 01 tl 10 -rl 01 C C IB 01 tl U k to o> •rl Q, X tri O •o T X: fgl o\ I 4J Id •o 01 3 to Id 4! E a • rl 13 k id "O C CD 4J to O rs ^ o 1 0) r_^ 01 288 ------- Pi w 5 o ft > EH H 2 EH < < J S ft W Pi EH W < O ft §0 < EH EH i-l < P CO CO W S O Pi CO EH EH 2 O O < U ft S 2 H O H >H CO EH CO H H J S < H P O EH 2 Pi < H i-q _q p^ P < ft CO EH • Pi ffi 1 CN CM 0 CO I-H1 i rO Q W -^ SH 13 CO r3 >, rO C ft ffl SH 13 rd 3 CU O II ft C CO II II O! 3 000 II tn -P x! "> II II II g \^ CM p ( • tnO en Pi 3- en EH tn 1 CD O SH SH 3 CD -p -P x: U rd -P CD SH rH CU Cl CD ft-rH S O Q) CU S -P 01 • rd C X! X CU O O O SH -H •H rd 0 -P XI -P C (0 IS en -H >H -P C CU H C •H x; H cu -P rO O en g c cu -P en o tn rd o en xl rd td -P ft rH tn en O -P CD EH U O O rd 0 SH > m tJ cu -P OS Q) SH o CU X! ftrH x; -P -P XJ >i O O rH SH -P -rl -P o x: x; m cu S tn rH -r\| M XI rH C4 ro MH tn O -P MH •H d O rO -P X! fd -H 13 13 SH SH CU C -P -P fi fd C -P SH CD rd 3 •> 0 -P ^ C CU U O SH tn to O fd -H -P tn ft 13 SH CO CU CD CU EH en Xl M 3 xi O SH i^ S 0 en SH tn O -H O Xl tn cu 1 V-i f"1 1 r~l ,J^ •> O ^ -P CN -P O rd CO MH C -P 0 •H -rl CU ftx; w tn -H -P en cu u cu 0 CU ti C c: SH CD cu cu ftx: > SH S -H CU 0 -P 4H -H tn U 4H 4-1 CU CU •H ro tn m Q -P -H UH Cd 01 r) Q) 289 ------- TABLE 5-10: AIR QUALITY IMPACTS RESULTING FROM ALTERNATIVE STACK HEIGHTS AT NAVAJO POWER PLANT SELECTED STACK HEIGHTS (feet) 300 500 1,000 APPLICABLE STANDARDS NAAQS (primary) (secondary) State standards Class II PSD increments MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION (yg/m3) 3-HOUR SO 2 497 ' 454 365 1,300 1,300 512 24-HOUR SO 2 72 65 26 365 260 91 24-HOUR TSP 40 36 14 260 150 150 37 yg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter : S02 = sulfur dioxide TSP = total suspended particulates= NAAQS = National Ambient Air Quality Standards PSD = prevention of significant deterioration (3) Alternative Stack Heights In order to examine the effects of alternative stack heights on air quality in the Navajo scenario, worst-case dispersion mod- eling was carried out for a 300-foot stack (lowest stack height consistent with good engineering practice), a 500-foot stack (an average or most frequently used height), and a 1,000-foot stack (a highest stack height). The results of this examination are shown in Table 5-10. Emissions from each stack are controlled by an 80 percent efficient SOz scrubber and a 99 percent efficient ESP. The 500-foot case was given previously as part of the base case. A comparison of predicted emissions with applicable standards shows no NAAQS are violated with a 300-foot stack. However, Class II PSD increments for 24-hour TSP emissions are violated in the 300-foot stack height case. (4) Alternative Plant Sizes The base case 3,000 MWe power plant at Navajo (with 500-foot stack height, 80 percent S02 removal and 99 percent TSP removal) violates no NAAQS or Class II PSD increments. Any reduction in plant generating capacity would turther reduce emissions of S02 and TSP. Resnlts are shown in Table 5-11. 290 ------- TABLE 5-11: AIR QUALITY IMPACTS RESULTING FROM ALTERNATIVE PLANT SIZES AT NAVAJO POWER PLANT UNIT SIZE (MWe) 750 NUMBER OF UNITS 1 2 3 4 PLANT CAPACITY (MWe) 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 APPLICABLE STANDARDS NAAQS (primary) (secondary) State standards Class II PSD increments MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION (yg/m3) 3-HOUR SO 2 114 227 340 454 1,300 1,300 512 24-HOUR S02 16 32 49 65 365 260 91 24-HOUR TSP 9 18 27 36 260 150 150 37 yg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter MWe = megawatt-electric S02 = sulfur dioxide TSP = total suspended particulates NAAQS = National Ambient Air Quality Standards PSD = prevention of significant deterioration (5) Summary of Power Plant Air Impacts During the construction phase of the Navajo power plant, the frequency of violations of NAAQS particulate standards will prob- ably increase. Once the 3,000 MWe hypothesized power plant and associated mine are in operation (80 percent S02 removal, 99 percent TSP removal, and 500-foot stack height), they are pre- dicted to violate New Mexico's ambient air standard for N02 con- centrations and the Class II PSD increment for 24-hour particu- lates. Removal of the SO2 scrubbers or ESP would result in violations of several NAAQS and Class II PSD increments. Lower- ing the hypothesized stack height to 300 feet would result in violations of Class II PSD increments for 24-hour TSP emissions. E. Uranium—Underground Mine and Mill Impacts The primary radioactive isotope emitted from uranium milling is Rn-222. There is no federal standard for allowable Rn-222 air concentrations. A rule of thumb value commonly used as an accept- able level is one picocurie per liter of air (one picocurie is equal to 10"12 curies). In this study neither criteria pollutant 291 ------- nor radiological emissions from a uranium mine and mill were modeled. Thus, the concentrations that would result from the criteria pollutant emission rates given in Table 5-3 or from a 9,000 curie per year radiological emission rate are not known. F. Scenario Impacts (1) To 1980 Construction of the hypothetical Lurgi gasification plant will begin in 1977, and the plant will become operational in 1980. The population of Farmington is expected to increase from 27,900 (1975) to 34,800 by 1980.l This population increase will con- tribute to increases in pollution concentrations due solely to urban sources. Table 5-12 shows predicted 1980 concentrations of the five criteria pollutants in the center of Farmington and at a point 3 miles from the center of town. When the Lurgi coal gasification plant becomes operational in 1980, visibility is expected to decrease from the current average of 60 miles to 59 miles. When concentrations from urban sources are added to back- ground levels and concentrations from the Lurgi plant (given in Table 5-5), annual particulate levels exceed the federal secondary standard, and 3-hour HC levels exceed the federal and New Mexico standards.2 Moreover, concentrations of particulates (30-day, 7-day, and 24-hour), S02 (annual), and N02 (annual and 24-hour) approach the most restrictive federal or state standards. (2) To 1990 Two new facilities are hypothesized to be constructed by 1990 in the Navajo/Farmington area. A power plant will become operational in 1986 and a Synthane gasification plant in 1990. Interactions of the pollutants from the power and Synthane plants are minimal because they have been (hypothetically) sited 6 miles apart. If the wind blows directly from one plant to the other, plumes will interact. The maximum pollutant concentration re- sulting from the interaction of Synthane plant with the power plant will just meet Class II PSD increments for 24-hour SO2 emissions. The Class II PSD increment for 3-hour S02 emissions will be violated. The Lurgi plant is too far away to affect peak concentrations. If the plants were closer, the probability of interactions would increase. Section 5.4.3. 2HC standards are violated regularly in most urban areas 292 ------- ID O w D Q CO O H EH W U 2 O U O H EH r-l I LT) W ,-q CQ i-H CO cn rH 0 O o fM O cr\ Q 00 & Q Z 3 O OJ U kH U ri! CO £ ££ \|o Is J" eg < oooo oo oo o oo \O C^i fH LO VD ^D O O VD O O rH rH fN rH (N i— 1 OO I.. «. O in rH i— 1 O O O O OOO VO in O O VD O O rH CO r- 1 rH O O ». «. r- 1 O O in o ooo in O OV0 O V£ OO r~- \& co ro r— i i— i oo CN . ^ 0 O rH tj- ^D O ^ C^ f! T ^C O ^ O O O in r~ o in c^ •— t r- o OA f^ rH 'H &\ rH r*1 m m ^O^OCTltN ro^1^ 00 ^ rH OO T \& O Lfl CTv {Q [""- O> O •H fH CO O^ Ci «. . (N ^ Tf\)fNJ(N (M 00 TT O O O f^ m P o ^ in (T\ in F"" o ^ **( -H i— 1 Q\ -r-( f-s- ro m O^OICN IXJ^VD coro «H oo i-H rH CO Cn C^t (N rf f^fNfsrsj ^TCOT o^c o coo rN^TVDff\ rH^CO ^ro tn OfH •H r- m rH (N ^1 c c: s S oooo ooo oo o O TTT^-^r rslfNfN rHrH C C fii ,S^ c c 3 3 01 (D 4-> 3tOtO>,O IBO3 rOO 3 33 us'oio.c 3^0 3x: o oo •HCITDl CIJ3 Cl Si Si Si 4J C 0 1 • C1-IOC-W 1 II -l ft^ ro f^ f» (N-i .a •O !H j: o n u u o a u 0) •a 0> -H TJ X -H O X -H O TJ •H •o c 0) 1-1 cn 2 = SUlfu 2 = nitro o o cn z D M 10 01 C o -H 4-1 10 1-1 4-1 C Ol u c 0 u T> c D o D CJ to to . 01 0) 0 3 0 01 c (0 J2 3 E O UJ 01 C 0 •H 4J to l_l 4-1 C CU O c o o rH 0) 01 rH 1 T) C 3 O Cn •0 0) O •H Tt 0) 1-1 a 0) S-l (0 CU 01 CU £ EH 13 , c s 0 4-1 4_) 0 u o> 4J C 0) 0 0) 4-1 E 0 U-l 01 01 rH •H E f) c Ol V 10 4J 01 4-1 C 0) E Ol VI 3 in (0 0) E 0) Vl 10 £ 01 4J C •H & rH (0 Vj 3 IX , in i in 0) X! (0 H E O t-l M-l C 0) X 10 4-> J" >1 4J cn rH r-l 10 01 QJ C £ Ed 0 •H •• rH 4J X) 01 3 01 as 4-1 0) CJ J2 Ol 4J 4-1 o e 1H 0 a M rJL) O 4J > tn •O rj QJ 01 C C Oifd 1 S 4J U O U-l fc s1 o c 0) CJ1 ^ c o •H 4J o 01 4-1 o VI D. rH 18 4J •H C 01 0) CJ • E •O rH 10 01 •O 4J -4 0) C o Vi H ^ fQ c "O 'Cd C • 18 iJ - 4-1 01 C CO •H . >, > 3 4-1 1-4 •H M rH id - • 3 CU CJ tr 4-1 . •H Q r4 J= •H S - to C E 0 4J O 4-1 C >H CT> 0) iw C •H -H 43 01 £ E rj 01 (0 10 10 [J rH 10 (0 4-J 1-1 10 • 0) 13 4J 'tJ r4 01 0) O i-l 01 Q, 01 Ol 01 Si K ^ EH tO 01 E I • Hi 1-1 rH 01 tfl 01 >i T) > CO C -H O 4-1 4-) U O C 01 01 01 01 aE = 01 a 0) O T3 M rH C 0) tfl - > 01 01 = >H Q >i fO r4 4H QJ tO rH CJ E Ol vi •H 3 3 r4 O DJ 13 01 = C 01 c id 05 . tN Vi 0) 4J a 10 u Ol c H £ O 0 . w o z o 4-1 T! 0) Vi 0) c 0 o Ol Vl 10 01 01 CJ 3 0 01 c 10 Vl 3 E O Vi UH C 0) O 4J •H C U-l O 01 01 •o -H X 0 Lj_j O -U c CD O 8, o in jj to s: 4-1 •o 01 E 3 0] 01 10 01 •H 4J M U , £ rC Ol 1 4J 10 TJ 01 3 Ul IB 1 01 -H T3 VI IB TJ C IB 01 CJ 33 ^j 3 O 1 41 j; t3 293 ------- When the power plant and Synthane plant come on-line with the Lurgi facility, visibility is expected to decrease from the cur- rent average of 60 miles in the Farmington region to 57 miles by 1990. In a worst-case situation, expected to occur about once a year, short-term visibilities could be reduced to between 3 and 9 miles,- depending on the amount of S02 converted to particulates in the atmosphere. Farmington's predicted population increase to 43,650 by 1990 will cause urban pollutant concentrations to reach the levels shown in Table 5-12. Combined with background levels, the 1990 concentrations will violate the federal secondary standards for annual particulate levels and New Mexico's 24-hour NO2 and 3-hour HC standards. These concentrations also approach either a federal secondary or New Mexico standard for 30-day, 7-day, and 24-hour particulate levels and annual S02 levels. The HC violation, which will exceed New Mexico's standard by a factor of five, appears the most severe because it increases the likelihood of oxidant formation and photochemical smog. (3) To 2000 One new facility, a Synthoil liquefaction plant, will become operational between 1990 and 2000. Interactions between the new Synthoil plant, the Lurgi, Synthane, and power plants will in- crease annual peak concentrations near the power plant. Inter- action between the Synthoil and power plant plumes will result in maximum pollutant concentrations that just meet Class II PSD increments for 24-hour SOz levels. The Class II PSD increment for 24-hour TSP will be violated. When all energy conversion facilities in the scenario come on-line in 2000, visibility is expected to decrease from the current average of 60 miles in the Farmington region to 56 miles. In a worst-case situation, expected to occur about once a year, short-term visibilities could be reduced to between 3 and 8 miles, depending on the amount of SO2 converted to particulates in the atmosphere. Farmington's population will increase to-49,600 by the year 2000, and increased pollution concentrations will be associated with this growth (Table 5-12). These increases will exceed two additional ambient standards beyond those violated by population increases in 1990 (New Mexico's 30-day and 7-day particulate standards). Further, 24-hour particulate levels will be virtually equal to federal secondary standards. G. Other Air Impacts Nine additional categories of potential air impacts have been examined; that is, an attempt has been made to identify sources of pollutants and how energy development may affect levels 294 ------- of these pollutants during the next 25 years. These categories include sulfates, oxidants, fine particulates , long-range visi- bility, plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, cooling tower fogging and icing, trace elements, and fugitive dust emissions.1 Although there are likely to be local impacts as a consequence of these pollutants, both the available data and knowledge about impact mechanisms are insufficient to allow quan- titative, site-specific analyses. Thus, these are discussed in a more general, qualitative manner in Chapter 10. 5.2.4 Summary of Air Impacts Energy development hypothesized in the Navajo/Farmington region are: Lurgi and Synthane gasification facilities, a Syn- thoil liquefaction facility, a 3,000 MWe power plant, associated surface coal mines for the facilities, and a uranium mine (under- ground) and mill. Particulate standards are already periodically violated in the region due to blowing dust; mining and facility construction activities are likely to aggravate that problem. Particulate emissions violate the federal NSPS for particu- lates, and the NSPS for NOX may be violated (depending on the amount of NOX removed by scrubbers which is highly uncertain) . Neither the Lurgi nor the Synthane facilities violate any federal ambient standards or Class II PSD increments. Buffer zones of 10 and 5 miles, respectively, would be required to meet Class I PSD increments. The Synthoil plant violates only the NAAQS for HC; a buffer zone of 16 miles would be required to meet Class I increments. The power plant violates New Mexico's ambient N02 air stan- dard but no federal ambient standards or Class II PSD increments. The combination of the power plant and mine violate the Class II increment for 24-hour particulates. Without the hypothesized 80 percent S02 and 99 percent TSP removal, the power plant would violate ambient air standards. Lowering the stack from the hy- pothesized height of 500 feet to 300 feet would cause the Class II PSD increment for 24-hour TSP to be violated. The impact that population increases will have on air quality may be significant. Our results indicate that federal and New Mexico ambient standards for particulates and HC are likely to be violated. The HC problem may be severe due to its participa- tion in the chemical reactions which produce smog. analytical information is currently available on the source and formation of nitrates. See Hazardous Materials Advi- sory Committee. Nitrogenous Compounds in the Environment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Report No. EPA-SAB-73-001. Wash- ington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973. 295 ------- 5.3 WATER IMPACTS 5.3.1 Introduction Energy resource development facilities in the Navajo/ Farmington area are sited in the San Juan River Basin, a subbasin of the Colorado River. The major water source for this develop- ment is the San Juan River (see Figure 5-4). The New Mexico por- tion of the San Juan Basin is arid, and water supplies are limited. Within most of the basin, annual rainfall is generally 6 to 10 inches or less, and snowfall is approximately 24 inches.1 This section identifies the sources and uses of water re- quired for energy development, the residuals that will be produced, and the water availability and quality impacts that are likely to result. 5.3.2 Existing Conditions A. Groundwater The aquifers of greatest significance to the Farmington area are:2 an alluvial aquifer system along the San Juan River and Chaco Wash and their tributaries; a shallow bedrock sandstone aquifer in the Pictured Cliffs Formation; and a deep bedrock sand- stone aquifer in the Morrison Formation. Recharge of alluvial aquifers depends on stream flow; there- fore, when associated with intermittent streams, alluvial aqui- fers are unreliable as supply sources. However, these aquifers are sometimes satisfactory as water sources for livestock and domestic purposes. Water quality in the alluvial aquifer associated with Chaco Wash is relatively poor (contains up to 3,000 milligrams per liter [mg/£] of TDS). Water quality in the alluvial aquifer of the San Juan River is probably somewhat better because the aquifer is recharged by a perennial rather than an intermittent stream. The Pictured Cliffs sandstone aquifer is about 100 feet thick and lies about 30 feet below the deepest minable coal seam. Its yield is low (generally about 10 gpm), and the water is of poor xThe moisture content of one inch of rain is equal to approx- imately 15 inches of snow. 2The entire New Mexico portion of the San Juan Basin was declared an underground basin in July 1976 by the State Engineer. Uses of the basin are subject to regulation as an aquifer of significance to water supply. 296 ------- COLORADO ™ T«f ' l, t> Navajo Indian Irrigation Project Water Line and Pumping Station FIGURE 5-4: SURFACE WATER FEATURES AND WATER IMPACTS AT NAVAJO/FARMINGTON 297 ------- quality. The TDS content is usually above 1,000 mq/i and ranges as high as 75,000 mg/Jl.1 Recharge of the aquifer is estimated to be about 200 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr). The Morrison sandstone aquifer is about 900 feet thick and, in the scenario area, occurs at a depth of about 5,000 feet. Little is known about the productivity and water quality of this aquifer. B. Surface Water All the southern tributaries of the San Juan River, includ- ing Chaco Wash and its tributaries, are ephemeral. Approximately 88 percent of the average annual water supply in the basin re- sults from flow from the Colorado portion of the drainage basin.2 Allocation and control of water resources in the San Juan River currently involves a number of treaties and basinwide com- pacts which include state and federal jurisdictions. These are the: Colorado River Compact;3 Upper Colorado River Basin Com- pact;4 Mexico Treaty of 1944;5 and the laws of the State of New Mexico. Under the Upper Colorado River Basin Compact, New Mexico is entitled to 11.25 percent of the water in the Colorado River to 1 Forty-nine water samples from the Pictured Cliffs sandstone aquifer yielded an average TDS content of 25,442 mg/£. U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Western Gas- ification Project and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah Interna- tional Inc., New Mexico; Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Re- gion, 1976, pp. 2-37 and 2-38. 2This inflow from Colorado helps to explain why New Mexico's entitlement is somewhat less than the total available water leav- ing the state. The San Juan actually contributes about 17 per- cent of the flow at Lee Ferry, the point at which Upper Basin flow is measured. 3Colorado River Compact of 1922, 42 Stat. 171, 45 Stat. 1064, declared effective by Presidential Proclamation, 46 Stat. 3000 (1928) . ^Upper Colorado River Basin Compact of 1948, Pub. L. 81-37, 63 Stat. 31 (1949). 5Treaty between the United States of America and Mexico Res- pecting Utilization of Water of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, February 3, 1944, 59 Stat. 1219 (1945), Treaty Series No. 994. 298 ------- TABLE 5-13: FLOW CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SAN JUAN RIVER LOCATION Farmington Shiprock DRAINAGE AREA (square miles) 7,240 12,900 20-YEAR AVERAGE FLOW (1955-75) 1,850 cfs 1,340,000 acre-ft/yr 1,848 cfs 1,339,000 acre-ft/yr MAXIMUM FLOW (cfs) 68,000 (1927)a 80,000 (1929)a MINIMUM FLOW (cfs) 14 (1939)a 8 (1939)a cfs = cubic feet per second acre-ft/yr = acre-feet per year Source: U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey, Sur- face Water Supply of the U.S., 1961-65, Part 9, Colorado River Basin, Vol. 2, Water Supply Paper 1925. Printing Office, 1970. aThe year of measurement. Washington, D.C.: Government which Upper Basin states are entitled. While estimates of the amount of water available to the Upper Basin states vary widely, our analysis is based on 5.8 million acre-ft/yr.1 This would entitle New Mexico to 652,000 acre-ft/yr. However, the state of New Mexico bases its claim on an estimate of 6.3 million acre- ft/yr and, allowing for reuse of 24,000 acre-ft/yr, uses 727,000 acre-ft/yr for planning purposes.2 At present, there is suffi- cient water available in the San Juan River to meet any of these estimates. However, the absence of impoundments below Navajo Reservoir reduces the practicability of diversions to Bloomfield and Aztec in spite of an apparently adequate total. Baseline surface water flow in the Farmington area varies considerably. During low flow periods, withdrawals for energy use could be a substantial percentage of what is available. Flow characteristics of the San Juan River at Shiprock and Farmington are shown in Table 5-13. Since 1962, the flow in the San Juan issues are elaborated in our regional analysis (Chap- ter 11). The 5.8 figure, one of the most common estimates, is from U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage- ment Team. Report on Water for Energy in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Denver, Colo.: Department of the Interior, 1974. 2Colorado River Compact of 1922, 42 Stat. 171, 45 Stat. 1064, declared effective by Presidential Proclamation, 46 Stat. 3000 (1928) . 299 ------- has been partially regulated by the Navajo Reservior, which was built to supply the Navajo Indian Irrigation Project (NIIP). The maximum and minimum flows of record at Farmington and Shiprock occurred before the construction of Navajo Reservoir. The res- ervoir operating conditions are shown in Table 5-14. To meet the NIIP water demand, it will be necessary to use the entire operating range and all of the active storage. Not all of the water allocated to New Mexico in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) is currently being used. However, future developments may create a demand that exceeds that total available supply. Present and projected water allocations are shown in Table 5-15. This table is based on New Mexico's posi- tion that its share of available water is 703,000 acre-ft/yr. The largest future development is the NIIP, but water commitments for energy development are also substantial. If the water quan- tity from the Energy Management Team's estimate of 5.8 million TABLE 5-14: OPERATING CONDITIONS FOR NAVAJO RESERVOIR Maximum storage Minimum storage Normal operating range pre-NIIPa Minimum release September-April Minimum release May-August 6,085 feet above mean sea level 1,709,000 acre-feet 5,990 feet above mean sea level 600,000 acre-feet 6,025-6,050 feet above mean sea level 450 cubic feet per second3 700 cubic feet per second NIIP = Navajo Indian Irrigation Project aThe Navajo Indian Irrigation Project will require 330,000 acre- feet per year (acre-ft/yr) of which 226,000 acre-ft/yr will be consumed for irrigation and by evaporation and 104,000 acre-ft/yr will be returned. Model studies indicated that these minimum flows could not be met during 3 years using 1949-1965 flow data. Under these extreme events, discharges to the San Juan River may be less than 300 cubic feet per second to maintain minimum storage in the reservoir. 300 ------- TABLE 5-15: NEW MEXICO'S PRESENT AND PROJECTED SAN JUAN RIVER WATER ALLOCATIONS DEPLETIONS (nominal-at-site) (thousands of acre-feet per year) Irrigation (present) Other (present) Hammond San Juan-Chama Navajo Reservoir Evaporation Hogback Expansion Utah International Incorporated (Four Corners) Farmington M & I (increase) Navajo Indian Irrigation Navajo M & I Contracts New Mexico Public Service Company (San Juan) Utah International Incorporated (WESCO) El Paso Natural Gas Co. Other (Gallup) Animas-La Plata Irrigation M & I Mainstream Reservoir Evaporation Total depletions 1974 83 13 8 46 24 2 25 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 58 264 FUTURE 83 13 10 110 26 10 39 5 226 16 35 28 8 34 14 20 58 735 M & I = Municipal and Industrial WESCO = Western Gasification Company Source: U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Rec- lamation. States' Comments, Westwide Study Report on Crit- ical Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western States. Denver, Colo.: Bureau of Reclamation, 1976. aM & I, Fish and Wildlife (F & W), Recreation Mineral, etc, 301 ------- acre-ft/yr is used to calculate New Mexico's portion of the Upper Colorado River water, only 652,000 acre-ft/yr would be available, in which case future depletions would exceed supply. This could lead to the reallocation of water currently allocated but not being used or the purchase of existing water rights for new uses. The quality of water in the San Juan River, which will be the source of process water for the energy facilities in this area, is shown in Table 5-16 along with typical industrial boiler feed quality requirements and drinking water standards. Two existing power plants are located in the San Juan Basin in the vicinity of the Navajo/Farmington area. The San Juan Power Plant has a closed-loop water system and does not return effluent to the San Juan. However, the Four Corners Power Plant discharges from Morgan Lake into Chaco Wash. This plant also uses Morgan Lake, a 1,200-acre lake, as a cooling pond. When evaporative losses from the lake increase water salinity to levels unacceptable for plant use, the lake is flushed into Chaco Wash and refilled from the San Juan River by pipeline. As reported by Arizona Public Service Company, the operator of the Four Corners plant, these intermittent discharges have an average TDS concen- tration of 3,000 mg/2, and are somewhat alkaline (acidity/alkalinity [pH] levels are often above 9.0),l In the future, the company may be required to reduce the TDS levels of water discharged to comply with state standards and regulations. 5.3.3 Factors Producing Impacts The water requirements of and effluents from energy facili- ties cause water impacts. These requirements and effluents are identified in this section for each type of energy facility. Associated population increases also increase municipal water demand and sewage effluent; these are presented only for the scenario which includes facilities constructed according to the scenario schedule. A. Water Requirements of Energy Facilities The water requirements for energy facilities hypothesized for the Navajo/Farmington area are in Table 5-17. Two sets of data are presented. The Energy Resource Development System (ERDS) Report data are based on secondary sources, including impact statements, Federal Power Commission (FPC) docket filings, and According to the New Mexico Water Quality Control Commission (San Juan River Basin Plan). 302 ------- rt O H i o w 1 I in I (. i <<^ ^ DI E x: u o ft. H ffi ^J \ Oi _£ Z O EH O Z H 1 J 1 K ^ H° "« K EH < 2 0 r- z H a o a W EH S O H W 2 K S M EH Q W EH g M S U s H EH •a K W EH < a fcj fn u to a a § Z EH to W s PL] ^ < S c ~ X A s § $ < E M X 2 EH Z W EH M EH W Z o CO Ofl^1 rH^vp OO rH O IN OrHC^ 1-lrH 000 OOO 0000 i-H • 00 QJ in D QJ QJ • OOO 0 03 in in rH o I r-i IN in m U3 "^M ro , o m <^> ^ f- o OrHfHCsJU'lO'HQ «T O" 0° VD i— * ^* Tl* m r— 1 0^ ,-H rH £ rH ^ '4-1 IM iH ^ r- V -^ lA 0 O • oor^-r^rnoo^'o coooo P- rH [— CO rH (N ff^f-H rH PS] * * CN rH TT O O"< ^ ^ cs QC M °I " ^ °! S\|f ^ mcQrHrNrorocoo ""«-' in fO ^" rH O ^ m 1~l o °o tN in L^ (N rH rH n 00 fi ' rH °° ' r- rH in 1—OOrH jO 5 M ~ 73 E 01 j> » rH IB o) o u jJ tn -^ 6 E * tn 3 3 c o) 'H tn tn E-rl .fHOQJT30)QT3tn §tn Xt 4J -H JJ 'rl 0) tn IH (0 ^ IB rH i— 1C rH 0173 JJ OrHrHJJJJtn >H CJSW&.COWUZEH SB a. rH in c rj EH in ^ X 0 'D QJ > tH 0 n ° ^ CO r^. (N o o CO » (N JJ C Q) E T3 W tn •H C D j^ JJ •H T! J3 3 EH C 0 tn 0 10 n D EH E 3 tn 0) c 10 E n Oi ^ O) • H rH U S. CO 03 O"1 •H r-H rH -H II C«* \^ e to o jj • rl rH • rl rH ^ -rl e ii 0? & ^, JJ -rj C •rl 10 i-H 10 ^ jj • H rQ .^ O (0 II X a E 3 •rl O rH 10 o II u r\i JJ to fc •. o o •rl X £ s 3 a> z iH O 4H (0 JJ (0 Q to 01 o M 3 0 W 0) K IH 01 4J IB 2 ro 1 — Ol rH • n -. Ol H . >, 0) ^_l 3 CO H ro 0 rl Oi O rH 0 • O 0) • > CO ^ • tn 3D 0) CO i-H a rfl • 10 ox to •rl 01 Oi E ^i 0 rH rH . -H o z 10 U v 01 IH - 3 O 'H O1 O IH in •H 01 0) In 3 JJ 0) CP -rl jj 3 tn C jQ O M rH Qj < E 01 O X 0 tn MH MH T3 o O M O to JJ O -rl CO) to 0> K. >i •5 >i ro M JJ C (0 -rl (0 D 5 M. • W , o t __^ m r- & rH . ^ OJ V4. 01 0) o s w CO CO 1 vo in Ol in » Oi K • CO o Ol rH C 0 •rl JJ IS •rl O 0 tn tn tn ^ 0 ^t 01 ^1 18 2 C U -rl 0) XI 73 '01 c 01 £• 0 o 01 •a 73 0) tn O a 0 iH Cu . v in C o •rl JJ ro 3 0) IH D JJ ro 2 Oi C •rl C •H >H Q ^1 tH IB 73 C 0 0 0) IB C 0 •H JJ ffl z , >1 0 c 01 DI < C 0 •H JJ o 01 JJ 0 iH Cu rH IB C 01 E C O L4 •H > C H h • W 01 K 0) J3 O JJ 73 0) E 3 in tn fl 01 Vj IB to JJ •H C 3 >1 JJ •rl 73 • H XI M 3 EH C O tn ,Jn^ O ro ID • 01 o> ffl IH 01 > ro >, rH X! JJ C 0 e ro c o •o 0> > 0 rH rH a tn • jj f") -H r~- C Oi 3 * . rH "a « 73 >i M W i-l 73 JJ O O 0) -H O U ^ 73 0) 01 3 -rl M rj tn .Q ro VH IH UH GJ 3 O O E JJ E 6 E E 3333 E e e E •H -H -rH -rl X C = X IB -H -H ro Z E E E m oc -c -ri * rrj 0 r* JJ 0) S u •rl JH jj 01 g 0 rH 01 J^ a 01 z 01 r; JJ ^l C •rl tn 3 73 IH ra 73 S ro jj tn o> j= jj c •H tn jj •H C 3 ^ JJ •H 73 •H XI IH 3 EH O JJ JJ C 01 rH IS > •H 3 o7 01 3 CT -rl C o 01 JJ M 0) JJ rH •H <4H OJ C (0 M n £ 0) g 01 J= JJ o> c •rl tn 3 J= JJ C 0 g ^j 8, 73 01 C •H E (8 X 0) in 0) i-H a IB tn i-H rH IS UH O C IB i O •H JJ g £ JJ •H IH is 01 XI JJ in 303 ------- TABLE 5-17: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR ENERGY FACILITIES AT FARMINGTON (acre-feet per year)a TECHNOLOGY Power Generation Gasification Lurgi Synthane Liquef accion Synthoil6 Uranium Underground Mine-Mill Synthetic Fuels Facilities Power Plant ERDS REPORTb WET COOLING 29,400 6,714 9 ,090 17,460 1,350 WATER PURIFICATION ASSOCIATES0 COMBINATION OF WET AND DRY COOLING HIGH WET 29,206 7,128 8,670 11,753 NC INTERMEDIATE WET 9,089 5,639 6,694 9,655 NC MINIMUM WET NC 5,213 6,289 9,112 NC Cost Range in Which Indicated Cooling Technology Is Most Economic (dollars per thousand gallons) NC NC < 1. 50 < 3.65-5.90 1.50-2.00 >3. 65-5. 90 >2.00 NC ERDS = Energy Resource Development Systems NC = not considered < = less than > = greater than aThese values assume an annual load factor of 75 percent in the case of the 3,000 megawatt-electric power plant and 90 percent in the case of the 250 million cubic feet per day Lurgi and Synthane facilities and 100,000 barrel per day Synthoil facility. bwhite, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forth- coming. °Gold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in~ the Western United State's^ Washington, D.C. : U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,1977. dCombinations of wet and wet dry cooling were obtained by examining the economics of cooling alternatives for the turbine condensers and gas compressor interstage coolers. In the high wet case, these are all wet cooled; in the intermediate case, wet cooling handles 10 percent of the load on the turbine condensers and all of the load in the interstage coolers; in the minimum practical wet case, wet cooling handles 10 percent of the cooling load on the turbine condensers and 50 percent of the load in the interstage coolers. For power plants, only variations on the steam turbine condenser load were considered practical; thus, only high wet and intermediate wet cases were examined. eSynthoil dj\|ta have a high uncertainty because of the small capacity of bench scale test facilities built to date. The Solvent Refined Coal liquefaction pro- cess now appears likely to become commercial sooner, and more reliable pilot plant data are available. These data are reported in White et al. Energy From the West: ERDS Report, Chapter 3. 304 ------- recently published data accumulations,1 and can be considered typical requirement levels. The Water Purification Associates' (WPA) data are from a study on minimum water-use requirements and take into account certain opportunities to recycle water on- site as well as the moisture content of the coal being used and local meteorological conditions.2 As indicated in Table 5-17, the coal-fired power plant will have the largest water requirement of all hypothesized energy facilities in the Farmington scenario. The uranium mine and mill will have the least. More than 29,000 acre-ft/yr of water would be needed by the 3,000 MWe power plant if all wet cooling is used (the high wet case on Table 5-17) . By using intermediate wet cooling (i.e. , a combination of wet and dry cooling) , water requirements could be reduced to slightly more than 9,000 acre-ft/yr, a savings of 69 percent. For synthetic fuels facilities, the intermediate wet cooling process could produce savings of from 1.8 (Synthoil) to 23 percent (Synthane) . From an economic standpoint, the decision of which process to use often depends on the availability and price of water. In the case of the power plant, high wet cooling would be more at- tractive economically if water costs less than $3.65 to $5.90 per thousand gallons. If water costs more than $3.65 to $5.90 per thousand gallons, intermediate wet cooling would be the more attractive alternative. For synthetic fuel facilities, high wet cooling would be most attractive if water costs less than $1.50 per thousand gallons. If water costs from $1.50 to $2.00 per thousand gallons, intermediate wet cooling would be the economi- cal choice. Minimum wet cooling (i.e., maximum dry cooling) would save from 6 (Synthoil and Synthane) to 8 percent (Lurgi) more water than intermediate wet cooling. This process would become economically attractive if water costs more than $2.00 per thou- sand gallons. If water costs only $0.25 per thousand gallons but inter- mediate wet cooling is utilized in order to conserve water, the increased cost of synthetic fuels would be about one cent per million Btu of fuel greater than if high wet cooling would have been used. In the case of a power plant, the increased cost of is based on data drawn from University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program. Energy Alternatives: A Com- parative Analysis. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975 ; and Radian Corporation. A Western Regional Energy Develop- ment Study, 3 vols. and Executive Summary. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1975. These data are published in White, Irvin L. , et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. 2Gold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. 305 ------- Cooling Tower Evaporation I I Consumed in the Process fe&'l Solids Disposal and Other H Power Synthoil Synthane Lurgi Generation Liquefaction Gasification Gasification (3000 MWe) (100,000 bbl/day) (250xl06 scf/day) (250xl06 scf/day) ERDS = Energy Resource Development System WPA-H = Water Purification Associates—High Wet Cooling WPA-I = Water Purification Associates—Intermediate Wet Cooling WPA-M = Water Purification Associates—Minimum Wet Cooling MWe = megawatt-electric bbl/day = barrel(s) per day scf/day = standard cubic feet per day Source: The ERDS data is from White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forth- coming. The WPA data is from Gold, Harris, et al. Water Require- ments for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environ- mental Protection Agency, 1977. FIGURE 5-5: WATER CONSUMPTION FOR ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE NAVAJO/FARMINGTON SCENARIO intermediate wet cooling is about 0.1 to 0.2 cents per kilowatt- hour (kWh). The use of the water required for energy facilities is shown in Figure 5-5. As indicated, the greatest water use for all en- ergy technologies is for high wet cooling. Solids disposal con- sumes comparable quantities of water for all technologies, varying primarily as a function of the ash content of the feedstock coal. In addition to the water requirements of the facilities, the coal mines that provide feedstock coal for the facilities will also require water. If reclamation of surface-mined lands in- cludes irrigation, most of the water requirements for mining will be for reclamation (see Table 5-18). These quantities, which are regarded as maximum requirements, are 10 to 25 percent of the requirements for the conversion facility. As mentioned previously, the San Juan River is the only re- liable source of surface water in the area; thus, it is assumed to be the source of water for the energy facilities included in this area. As shown in Figure 5-3, pipelines will transport water from the San Juan River to the energy facilities. The rights to this water would have to be purchased from present holders. Groundwater supplies, the only alternative source, are not suf- ficient to support the postulated facilities. 306 ------- TABLE 5-18: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR RECLAMATION' MINE Power Lurgi Synthane Synthoil Total ACRES DISTURBED PER YEAR 830 360 360 660 2,210 MAXIMUM ACRES UNDER IRRIGATION 4,150 1,825 1,825 3,300 11,100 WATER REQUIREMENT (acre-ft/yr) 3,110 1,370 1,370 2,475 8,325 acre-ft/yr = acre-feet per year aBased on an irrigation rate of 9 inches per year for five years. B. Effluents From Energy Facilities (1) Coal Conversion Facilities Table 5-19 lists expected amounts of solid effluents produced by coal conversion facilities in the Navajo scenario. The great- est amount of solid effluent will be produced by the Synthoil plant (more than 11,100 tpd), and the 3,000 MWe power plant is ex- pected to produce more than 9,300 tons per day. The Synthane and Lurgi gasification plants are expected to produce the least amount of solid effluents (slightly less than 6,000 tpd). The power plant will have the highest volume of dissolved and dry solids (71 and 5,677 tpd), and the Synthoil plant is expected to produce the highest amount of wet solids (5,550 tpd). Dissolved solids are present in the ash blowdown effluent, the demineralizer waste effluent, and the flue gas desulfurization (FGD) effluent. All coal conversion processes generate electricity on-site, thus flue gas cleaning, ash handling, and demineralization are generally required. One exception is the Synthoil process, which uses clean fuel gas for power generation; flue gas cleaning is not required for it. Demineralization is a method of prepar- ing water for use in boilers, producing an effluent containing chemicals originally present in the source water. The bottom ash stream is the water used to remove bottom ash from the boiler. Bottom ash removal is done via a wet sluicing system using cooling tower blowdown water. Thus, the dissolved solids content of that stream is composed of chemicals from the ash and cooling water. The principal dissolved constituents of these wastewater streams are calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate, and chloride. 307 ------- TABLE 5-19: EFFLUENTS FROM ENERGY CONVERSION FACILITIES AT FARMINGTON/NAVAJO FACILITY TYPE Coalc Lurgi (250 MMcfd) Syn thane (250 MMcfd) Synthoil (100,000 bbl/day) Electric Power (3,000 MWe ) Uranium Underground Mine (1,100 mt/day) Mill (1,000 mt/year) SOLIDS3 (tons per day) DISSOLVED 24 22 15 71 0.13-0.31 g WET 5,284 1,540 5,550 3,582 0.04-0.48 6.46^ DRY 667 4,417 5,550 5,677 Oe 1,000 TOTAL 5,115 5,979 11,115 9,330 0.21-0.81f 1,006 WATER IN EFFLUENTb (acre-feet per year) 575 1,328 909 2,290 53-81 500 MMcfd = million cubic feet per day bbl/day = barrels per day MWe = megawatt-electric mt = metric tons aThe values for solids are given for a day when the facility is operating at full load. In order to obtain yearly values, these numbers must be multiplied by 365 days and by the average load factor. Load factors are 90 percent for synthetic fuels facilities and 75 percent for power plants. The values given as solids do not include the weight of the water in which the solids are suspended or dissolved. The values for water discharged are annual and take into account the load factor. cThese data are from Radian Corporation. The Assessment of Residuals Disposal for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States, EPA Contract No. 68-01-1916. Austin, Tex.: Radian, 1978. The Radian Corporation report extends and is based on earlier analyses conducted by Gold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. Calculated from data reported in the Corps of Engineers' Discharge Permit Applications. eMine wastes are generated as dry solids, but are generally put back into the mine. Dissolved and wet do not sum to total because the total includes some volatile solids. 8Dissolved and wet solids are given together in the wet column. 308 ------- Wet solids from electric power and Lurgi or Synthane gasi- fication facilities are in the form of flue gas sludge, bottom ash, and cooling water treatment waste sludge. Bottom ash is the primary constituent of wet solids produced by a Synthoil fa- cility. Calcium carbonate (CaCO3) and calcium sulfate (CaSO^) are the primary constituents of flue gas sludge. The bottom ash is primarily oxides of aluminum and silicon. CaC03 is the prin- cipal constituent of the cooling water treatment waste sludge. In all cases the amount of cooling water treatment waste is very small, compared to the bottom ash and flue gas sludge. Dry solids waste produced by coal conversion processes is primarily fly ash composed of oxides of aluminum, silicon, and iron. The water in the effluent stream accounts for between 5 (Synthoil) and 14 (Synthane) percent of the total water require- ments of the individual energy facilities (data in Table 5-19 compared with that in Table 5-17). Dissolved and wet solids are sent to evaporative holding ponds and later deposited in landfills. Dry solids are treated with water to prevent dusting and deposited in a landfill.1 (2) Underground Uranium Mine and Mill Process effluents from the uranium underground mine' and mill. will contain significant quantities of suspended and dissolved solids and moderate levels of radioactive elements. Total quan- tities are given in Table 5-19. The major source of solids is the mill tailings, shown as dry solids on Table 5-19. Mill tail- ings will be ponded as a slurry and then landfilled. Dissolved and wet solids will be ponded separately from mill tailings. After settling, some of this pond water may be used for other purposes such as irrigation. It is expected that ponded effluent will have a solids content equal to or below that of the surface waters in the area. Radioactive solids (primarily as radium 226 [Ra-226]) will be precipitated in the pond and later landfilled with the mill tailings. 5.3.4 Impacts This section describes water impacts which result from the mines and conversion facilities, and from a scenario which in- cludes construction of all facilities according to the hypothe- sized scenario schedule. The water requirements and impacts associated with expected population increases are included in the scenario impact description. !The environmental problems associated with solid waste dis- posal in holding ponds and in landfills are discussed in Chapter 10. 309 ------- A. Surface Coal Mines Impacts As noted previously, the Pictured Cliffs sandstone aquifer is about 30 feet below the deepest minable coal seam and would probably be the only aquifer affected by mining. Flow patterns in the aquifer may be disturbed by the blasting required to frag- ment overburden and coal. Surface water drainage patterns will be affected by mine excavations, some of which will trap runoff. Unless these ponds are pumped out regularly, the impounded water may eventually percolate into the groundwater system or evaporate, but this is not expected to produce a significant impact. Losses in runoff due to mine excavations are not expected to be significant lo- cally because area streams are ephemeral and water would quickly dry up in any case. This loss of runoff into tributaries of the San Juan River would not reduce the flow in the river to a great extent. B. Energy Conversion Facilities Impacts1 Water impacts may be divided into those occurring during construction and during operation and those occurring because of the water requirements of facilities and because of effluents from the facilities. These impacts are similar for each conver- sion facility except as they differ in degree. Construction activities at the conversion facilities will remove vegetation and disturb the soil. These activities have an effect on surface water quality. The major effect will result from increases in the sediment load of local runoff. Maintenance areas and petroleum products storage facilities will also be needed to support construction equipment. Areas for the storage of other construction-related materials (such as aggregate for a concrete batch plant) may be required as well. All these fa- cilities have the potential for contaminating runoff. Runoff control methods will be instituted at all of these potential sources of contaminants and will be channeled to a holding pond for settling, reuse, and evaporation. Because the supply of water to this pond is intermittent, evaporation may claim most of the water, although some of the water may be used for dust control. Before the water supply pipeline from the San Juan River is completed, water for construction will be obtained temporarily from a well drilled into the Morrison sandstone aquifer. However, only about 400 acre-feet will be needed from the aquifer before Discussion of potential effect of radioactive effluents and emmission of uranium mines and mills is provided in Chapter 10. 310 ------- the pipeline is completed, a small part of the total water supply available from this aquifer. Water requirements for operating a high wet-cooled power plant (average load factor of 75 percent) represent 11 percent of the 1974 depletions for the San Juan River (see Tables 5-15 and 5-17) and 4.5 percent of New Mexico's portion of Upper Colo- rado River water.1 In contrast, an intermediate wet-cooled power plant would consume only 1.4 percent of New Mexico's portion of Upper Colorado River water. Each synthetic fuels plant will con- sume from 1.1 percent to 1.8 percent of New Mexico's UCRB allot- ment, if they are high wet cooled, and from 0.8 to 1.5 percent, if they are intermediate wet cooled. Also, during operation, holding ponds and runoff retention facilities will decrease 'runoff from the plant sites below pres- ent levels. This loss may decrease flow in the San Juan River, but this effect by itself will be small and temporary. Also, this runoff reduction in combination with the water demand of any one facility could have a salt concentrating effect in the San Juan. That effect is likely to be small when considering one facility at a time. C. Scenario Impacts Water requirements for direct use by these hypothesized en- ergy facilities increases from approximately 7,128 acre-ft/yr in 1980 when the Lurgi plant is operating to 46,354 acre-ft/yr by 1990 when the power plant, Synthane, and uranium facilities are also operating to 58,107 acre-ft/yr by the year 2000 when the Synthoil plant is added (high wet cooling is assumed in all cases from Table 5-17). If intermediate wet cooling is used, estimated water requirements would be reduced to 32,427 acre-ft/yr in the year 2000, a reduction of 45 percent. All of this water will be taken from the San Juan River. An irrigation program for rec- lamation of surface mined land would increase that requirement to 8,498 acre-ft/yr in 1980, 52,204 acre-ft/yr in 1990, and 66,432 acre-ft/yr in 2000. The projected water needs of the expected increases in popu- lation are shown in Table 5-20.2 This table is divided into res- ervation and nonreservation requirements; requirements are pro- jected both with and without a new town. The water source for most towns is the San Juan River or its alluvial aquifer. These systems are expected to expand as the municipal demand increases. (A new town may have individual domestic wells or may pipe water Assuming that portion is 652,000 acre-ft/yr. 2Population increases from secondary industries are not in- cluded in obtaining the estimates. 311 ------- O CN I in W z 0 M H ! w w Pi z o M H > W CO 1 0 1 1 p pq MH 1 5 P O Z r4 i-j 2 H W Pi H M <3 K^ y-^ 0) o o pi M 00 P W H Lxj )s o o J-J PQ O o w H Q 00 i— 1 \O 00 LO LO O O O O \O "3" LO ">d~ ON ^3" O ^ ON CT\ O ON ON O rH rH CM [5 rH rH CM o cu T) C C 0 CO -H 4J C C o cu •H e CO CO to w •H CU e w o <; u CO & cu to o CU Vi rl 3 4J O CO CO 0) CU PH 1) cO S-i 4J CU CO 4-1 t-l CO CU \|2 4-1 C M •• cu * t~H 0 -H o m •H O X M OJ PL, IS [5 4J 0) C z 3 0 u • « i_j rJ H .— ' c c 0 cO •H C/D CO CO •H e E 0 u 1 cu }-! 4~1 en cu 4-J cfl 4-J • CO CM cu o> 4J rH C M « , — s •^ T3 o cu V TJ •H 3 X -H cu o s c •rH £5 CU rH 3 CO •H .. JJ co S 3 "d Z C •H n] UJ cfl CO TJ 4-> e i-i 4-i ca cu CX C/3 CX 3 CU cO CO U - 4J C -H CO -H o u-4 cu cx O 4-1 CO CO O O O l-i CX OJ CO M M 4-1-3 CU CO t-l PH CX S cu cu oo • co cfl C C CM C 4-1 -H -H CM O •H OO Cl ' — 1 cx c a • rH CO L£J CO CX CO O rH 00 0) PM " v-i 4-J in ^o cu cfl s-i r^ CM CM 4-) O o> co CO CO 4-1 rH XI . J-l CU •H pi CO rt s •H ^ e 2 4-1 T3 cu •H tH cx cx 3 CO (-1 cu 4-J CO 12 • OJ r-^ C3> tH cc? id 1-4 (U cx cfl 4-1 •H cx cfl a J_J CU p. CO C o rH rH cfl M ^o ON rH G • CM r^ C3> tH cfl TJ tH cu cx CO 1 i •H cx cfl o J_l cu cx CD C o rH tH cO 00 o 0 rH TJ . c o 4-1 C •H ^ CO H ] o t>-, 4-J •H U >> p; ^-J CU •H rH CX cx CO ^J CU 4-J cfl s • CM [\ CTi rH CO TJ JM CU CX CO 4-1 •H CX CO G ^_j CU cx CO C o rH tH CO 60 in o rH 4-1 • cu 1 1 cfl B •H 4-J en 01 CO id M cu cx cfl 4-1 •H cx cfl CJ t-l cu cx CO C o tH tH cfl 00 m CM rH 00 312 ------- from the San Juan River.) Aztec currently gets municipal water from the Animas River and is experiencing a severe water shortage. Wastewater from the energy facilities, which will be im- pounded in evaporation ponds, will average 575 acre-ft/yr by 1980, 4,760 acre-ft/yr by 1990, and 5,665 acre-ft/yr by 2000. Rural populations are assumed to use individual on-site waste disposal facilities (septic tanks and drain fields), and the ur- ban population will require waste treatment facilities. Waste- water treatment capacity in the municipalities most affected by energy development activities are shown in Table 5-21. Waste- water increases resulting from development-induced population increases are apportioned as shown in Table 5-22. New wastewater treatment facilities adequate to meet the demands generated by these hypothetical developments and the associated population increases are being planned for all the impacted communities. These facilities will need to use the "best practicable" waste treatment technology to conform to 1983 standards and have al- lowance for recycling or zero discharge of pollutants to meet 1985 goals.l The 1985 goals could be met by using effluents for industrial process make-up water or for irrigating local farmland. (1) To 1980 The Lurgi high-Btu gasification plant and its associated surface mine will be constructed and in operation by 1980. Its consumptive water demand (assuming high wet cooling) represents about 1.1 percent of New Mexico's portion of Upper Colorado River water. By itself, this does not represent a significant demand on surface water supplies; however, it does represent a large portion of water not already allocated. From the present to 1980, most urban growth will be absorbed by existing communities, and local groundwater systems will not be significantly affected. Additional demands will be made on surface water supplies, but the overall increases should be small (see Table 5-20). Municipalities must secure a permit to withdraw additional water from surface supplies in the area. As shown in Tables 5-21 and 5-22, wastewater treatment facilities will be operating at or exceeding design capacity in Aztec by 1980. Unless new facilities come on-line to meet these requirements, some surface water pollution may result from overloads and/or bypasses. federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, § 101, 301; 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976). 313 ------- CN I m H 53 W C/) W OS o H C/} W O H H p I ^ O Crf W s o fa K M O ^J % U - o 60 v»^ o £ ^ T3 p. 60 yj ~ X-S p. 60 S c H S3 § ^ H P^ [•H Pn 0 JV] PL, f— ( H O F— 1 m • ^^ m • r-- 60 C 4-1 -H •H rH 60 S-I CJ cd "H CM 6 I-J •H 4J " S-i CO P. CM C Q) CM •> CU CO S-i « S-i CJ CO 0) CO S-i -H CU 4H cd S n rQ cd cd r. 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(U C/5 O i— 1 cu 4-1 cd I 13 C cd rH 4-1 S-l •H * "T3 C CO rH 4-1 •H rj S-l fjL\| O o cu 2 § 53 4-1 § O CJ § s £» >i cd S-i M CU 0) P. p. en 4-1 S -H O P. rH CO rH 0 cd 60 S-i 0) r^ f^ , 0 •H CO rH C rH O •H rH 6 rH cd H 60 13 II P. 60 T3 § 60 0 M CO 0) CO cu Prf C cd 60 C •H C C cd PH m o SJ o 4J a cu S-l •H Q CU j£ 4-1 & O S-l 4-1 cfl 4J CO _Q cd 314 ------- O H rH1 EH EH O P^ W i t^ 0 H H W cn W ed 0 o> 1 Sjj 1 M 0) 1 S Q 0 ^ flH nJ Pi H W M < M S 0) § PH 1— ( rc T3 Q W 1— 1 o o rH pq CJ U W H <3 ^3 z o H O z 1 W in oo i~^ CN oo -d~ ro o O ro oo o O ' — i ' — i O O ' — ' O — i ' — ! o • — ! — ' o o o o o o i— I CM o o o o o o CN 0-1 •—) 00 CN 00 o co CN in co un .— i CN ro o CN m ° i O O O jEj O O O ^228 ^22° o ^ rsonal communication, New Mexico Environmen r-l 0) ft e o ^ MH tn 0) 4-1 CO u o tH M-t CO 4J •H ft cfl CJ ^ 01 erf • p^l CJ C O) 60 <5j 4-1 C C1J S 01 o ^) ft s M CO T) V, 0) ft CO 4J •H ft CO O ^ 0) ft M C O rH rH cfl 60 00 x^ jT* cfl T3 j^ CJ ft cfl 4J •H ft CO a (-1 0) ft en C! 0 rH rH Cfl 60 O O rH 0 >, cfl ^i OJ ft CO 4-J •H ft cfl O ^i 0) ft en C O rH rH CO 60 rH CTi P>-. Cfl r-l 0) ft CO 4-J •H ft CO U ^_i a) ft to § rH rH CO 60 o oo 0) 315 ------- (2) To 1990 During the 1980-1990 period, the power plant, the Synthane high-Btu gasification facility, and the uranium mine and mill will be constructed and become operational. Since construction activities are greatest during this time period, the potential for surface water contamination by the sediment load as well as by other contaminants contained in the runoff is also greatest during this decade. The three coal mines in operation by 1990 will affect the water quality of the Pictured Cliffs sandstone aquifer because, as indicated previously, it lies only about 30 feet below the lowest coal bed. Weathering and leaching of mine wastes and ash that are deposited in landfills will probably result in poor quality water filtering into the aquifer. However, the low an- nual precipitation of the area lessens the potential seriousness of this problem. In any case, water quality in the aquifer is already poor (TDS from 49 wells average about 25,500 mg/& and range from 1,000 to 75,000 mg/£) . In addition, groundwater seep- age or stormwater runoff will pool in operational areas of mines. The quality of water impounded in mined-out locations within the Navajo/Farmington area should be approximately the same as the quality of water in natural streams.1 These impoundments will not result in a significant loss of water to the Colorado River System. The mines will have encompassed approximately 7,800 acres by 1990 (calculated from Table 5-18). If it is found that runoff retention facilities are required for this area, approx- imately 130 acre-ft/yr of water would be withheld from the local watersheds. The four conversion facilities in operation by 1990 will probably not significantly affect the quantity of recharge water fed to the Pictured Cliffs aquifer. However, the failure or in- adequacy of liners in on-site holding ponds may result in the leakage of pollutants into the Pictured Cliffs aquifer. Changes in surface water quality will occur primarily as a result of the combined water demands of all the energy develop- ment facilities. The water supply system may eventually have a salt-concentrating effect because it will remove water with a relatively low TDS content from the river basin. Consequently, some increase in TDS may be noticed at both Lake Powell and Lake 1U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Western Gasification Company (WESCO) Coal Gasification Project and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New Mexico: Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976. 316 ------- Mead.1 The TDS concentrations at Shiprock and at Imperial Dam will increase by approximately 7.1 and 2.9 mg/£ respectively.2 These increases are estimated averages and could be higher at Shiprock during low-flow periods. The increases would probably not vary seasonally at the major reservoirs because of their large buffer capacity. The Utah Water Research Laboratory of Utah State University estimates that the annual economic cost of salinity ranges from $45,900 to $230,000 for each mg/£ increase in TDS.3 In addition to salt concentration because of water with- drawals, some concentration of suspended solids (sediment) will occur downstream from the pipeline intakes if a gravel bed/ perforated pipe intake filtration system is used. This system will remove relatively clear water, thus leaving most suspended particules in the San Juan River. At the plant sites, changes in surface water quality will be negligible because of the small amount of runoff (0.1-0.2 inch per year) and the runoff control systems provided. Similarly, plant effluents are not expected to significantly affect surface water qualities because of the use of discharge technology that meets the goals of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972. Population increases resulting from these developments may be accommodated by existing communities or by a new town on res- ervation lands. Neither is expected to have much effect on groundwater quality or quantity. However, some increase in mu- nicipal and industrial needs must be met from surface water. As shown in Tables 5-21 and 5-22, the municipal wastewater loads will continue to stress the existing system. The 1976 design loads will be equalled or exceeded in Farmington, Aztec, Bloom- field, and Shiprock. Current expansion plans will provide ade- quate capacity in Farmington and Bloomfield if constructed on an appropriate schedule. Runoff will be increased by the expansion 'U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Western Gasification Company (WESCO) Coal Gasification Project and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New Mexico: Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah:Bureau of Reclamation,Upper Colorado Region, 1976. 2Ibid. This statement calls for four 1,000 million standard cubic feet per day gasification plants to be in operation under 1981 conditions. 3Utah State University, Utah Water Research Laboratory. Colorado River Regional Assessment Study, Part 1, Executive Summary, Basin Profile and Report Digest, for National Commission on Water Quality. Logan, Utah: Utah Water Research Laboratory, 1975. 317 ------- of existing towns. This runoff is generally routed directly into major streams and will eventually augment flow in the San Juan River. (3) To 2000 The only major facilities to be added during the 1990-2000 decade are a Synthoil liquefaction plant and its associated coal mine. The mine will begin operation in 1999, and the plant will come on-line in 2000. Thus, the impacts associated with these facilities will be primarily related to construction during this decade. The water impacts to 2000 are expected to be qualitatively about the same as to 1990. Quantitatively, the impacts will be somewhat higher because of the cumulative effect of the three existing plants and because of the addition of the Synthoil plant. Population growth will also continue during the decade, resulting in additional water demands and wastewater treatment requirements. (4) After 2000 After the plants are decommissioned, the structures will remain. Although many areas will be reclaimed and revegetated, irrigation of the areas will ultimately cease. Subsequently, vegetation may be lost and erosion may increase. The berms around the ponds will also probably lose their protective vege- tation and erode; the berms may breach as a result. If this happens, the materials within the pond site will erode and enter the surface water system. Although the salt materials from the evaporation ponds would be returning to their original source, the San Juan River, concentrations may be high enough to cause localized damage to aquatic ecosystems. Likewise, the addition of trace materials and solids from the ash disposal and tailing ponds may have an adverse effect. The low precipitation in the scenario area will retard the transport of these materials. The towns associated with the energy development will likely remain but populations will decline. The effects of increased storm-water runoff from urban areas and the associated introduc- tion of contaminants into surface water will also remain unless the water is treated. 5.3.5 Summary of Water Impacts Water for energy development in the Navajo/Farmington area will be taken from the San Juan River Basin, a subbasin of the Colorado River. This water source is limited; estimates of the New Mexico allotment of UCRB water range from 652,000 acre-ft/yr to 703,000 acre-ft/yr. The power plant requires significantly more water (about 29,000 acre-ft/yr assuming high wet cooling 318 ------- and a 75 percent load factor) than the synthetic fuels plants, and all coal conversion facilities require significantly more than the uranium facilities. Of the coal conversion facilities, the Lurgi gasification plant requires the smallest water quantity (about 7,100 acre-ft/yr assuming high wet cooling and a 90 per- cent load factor). The greatest water use for all of the coal conversion facilities is for cooling. The use of intermediate cooling would reduce water requirements by 69 percent for the power plant, and between 18 and 23 percent for the synthetic fuels plants. The coal mines that provide feedstock coal for the facilities will require 10 to 25 percent of the amounts of water required for the conversion facilities. Effluents from the energy facilities will be directed into clay-lined, on-site evaporative holding ponds. For the coal fa- cilities, fly ash and bottom ash disposal generate the largest quantities of residuals primarily because the coal contains 19 percent ash. FGD also generates large quantities of residuals from power generation. Other residual quantities from coal con- version are insignificant. The only quantitatively significant residual from the uranium facility is the mill tailings, -but these are up to 5 times less than residuals from coal plants. If all the facilities are constructed, the total water re- quirement is as much as 81,750 acre-ft/yr1 (about 12 percent of New Mexico's annual allotment), including water needs resulting from development-related population increases and the postulated new town development. Combined with other current and planned surface water usage in the area, this demand may exceed New Mexi- co's total allotment from the San Juan Basin, depending on the value used to represent the dependable flow in the Colorado River at Lees Ferry. Wastewater from the energy facilities, which will be im- pounded in evaporation ponds, will average 575 acre-ft/yr by 1980 and increase to 5,665 acre-ft/yr by 2000. Wastewater increases will also result from population increases. Water impacts will increase with the operation of the con- version facilities and their mines and with population increases. Poor quality water filtering from the mines to the Pictured Cliffs sandstone aquifer below the mines may affect the water quality of the aquifer which is already poor. Runoff from the plants and mines will be reduced by holding ponds and water retention facili- ties. Increased runoff from the expansion of towns will be di- rected to the San Juan River. Increased salt concentrations in the San Juan River will be caused by water removal. Calculated from Tables 5-17, 5-18, and 5-20. 319 ------- A potential long-term groundwater pollution problem is pond leakage. Pond liners should forestall this problem during the life of the plants, but the materials are likely to leach through the liners eventually and enter the groundwater system. Simi- larly, following the cessation of maintenance activities, berms containing salts, ash, trace materials, sanitary sludge, and scrub- ber sludge may be destroyed. If concentrations of these materials enter surface water systems, both local biota and downstream water users might be affected. 5.4 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS 5.4.1 Introduction San Juan County, the site of the hypothetical energy devel- opment proposed in the Navajo/Farmington scenario, is located in the extreme northwestern corner of New Mexico. Understanding the many differences between Indians and non- Indians in the county is basic to an analysis of the social and economic effects of energy development within the Navajo/Farming- ton area. In the analyses which follow, Indian and non-Indian and reservation and nonreservation impacts generally are treated separately. 5.4.2 Existing Conditions Less than 6 percent of the land in San Juan County is pri- vately owned. The Navajo and the Ute Mountain Reservations oc- cupy approximately 60 percent of the county; another 4.8 percent is owned by the state, and 29.5 percent is owned by the federal government. San Juan County's 1974 population was 61,700, 56 percent of which was located in the three cities of Aztec, Bloomfield, and Farmington. Population density countywide was 11.2 persons per square mile; outside the three cities, it was 4.9. Approximately 35 percent of the county's 1970 population was Indian, 96 percent living on the Navajo Reservation. Thirteen percent of the pop- ulation either had Spanish surnames or used Spanish as their pri- mary language. Less than 1 percent was black. Except for a slight decline between 1960 and 1970, the county's population has been increasing over the past 35 years. Population in the three cities has also been increasing, and people have been some- what more mobile than is generally the case in the western U.S. 320 ------- Housing in the county is relatively new, four-fifths of it having been built since 1950. Between 1970 and 1973, 739 new homes were constructed; 551 in 1973 alone. Mobile homes com- prised about 12 percent of all the houses in Farmington.1 The median value of a single-family dwelling in the county was about $13,000 in 1970 ($21,000 in 1975 dollars); the median rent was $80 ($130 in 1975 dollars). Both were somewhat higher in Farmington: the median house value there was about $18,000, and the median rent was about $165 per month.2 In early 1976, the minimum price housing in Farmington was about $22,000, and the median was over $30,000. Rents ranged from $175 to about $260 per month.3 The county is governed by a board of commissioners. A sub- stantial planning capacity has been developed within the County Planning and Research Department, which now has both a planner and assistant planner. Except for transportation and housing supply, the county seems to have an adequate infrastructure and service mix to accommodate additional population growth. "* There is no countywide zoning ordinance at present. However, a land- use study is under way, the results of which are to be used by the commissioners to decide whether a zoning ordinance is needed, Shiprock is the only urban center on the San Juan County portion of the Navajo Reservation.5 It is unincorporated, has no established boundaries, and is governed by the Tribal Council, Public services are provided by the tribal, county, state, and ^.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. County and City Data Book: A Statistical Abstract Supplement. Washing- ton,D.C.:Government Printing Office,1970;New Mexico, Bureau of Business and Economic Research. Community Profile: Farming- ton, 1974-75. Santa Fe, N. Mex.: New Mexico, Department of Development, 1974. 2Ibid. 3Farmington (New Mexico) Chamber of Commerce. General In- formation, January 15, 1976. Farmington, N. Mex.: Chamber of Commerce, 1976. 4See Zickefoose, Paul W. A Socioeconomic Analysis of the Impact of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center Area. Las Cruces, N. Mex.: New Mexico State University, Center for Business Services, 1974; and Farmington. General Information. 5There are smaller, unincorporated communities in the Farm- ington/Shiprock corridor. These include Kirtland, Fruitland, and Waterflow. 321 ------- federal governments. Water, sewer, and electrical services are provided generally only along the highway south from Shiprock. Health services are provided by the Public Health Service and the Bureau of Indi an Affairs (BIA) . Public safety is maintained by die Navajo and dtate police forces and the county sheriff. The BIA and the state of New Mexico construct and maintain the roads. Farmington, the area's largest city, is governed by a four- member council, has a city manager, and has a professional plan- ning capability. City services include water, sewers, electric- ity, police and fire protection, and recreation. There are no social assistance services apart from those provided jointly by the county and state. According to the city planning department, most of the ser- vice delivery systems are currently operating at or near capacity. A recently completed status report identifies some $30 million worth of projects that are needed to absorb already anticipated population impacts.1 In the view of both city and county offi- cials, the primary need is construction and operating funds, not help in identifying and analyzing problems. The area is unusual in that relatively few studies have focused on energy development in San Juan County, in contrast to many other areas of the West. The other off-reservation cities, Aztec and Bloomfield, have mayor-council governments and a city manager. Except for elec- tricity, services in both are the same as those provided by Farmington. Although a major portion of the reservation is within San Juan County, the Navajos retain a separate identity as the Navajo Nation. While the Navajos govern themselves, there are numerous unanswered questions in Indian law that can affect energy devel- opment in the area. For example, the water rights of Indians generally2 are in question. The applicability of state laws intended to regulate energy development, particularly environ- mental laws, is also unresolved.3 1Farmington, New Mexico, City of. Status Report, March 11, 1976. Farmington, N. Mex.: City of Farmington, 1976. 2Pelcyger, Robert S. "Indian Water Rights, Some Emerging Frontiers," in Rocky Mountain Mineral Law Foundation. Rocky Moun- tain Mineral Law Institute: Proceedings of the Twenty-First Annual Institute, July 17-19, 1975. New York, N.Y.:Matthew Bender, 1975, pp. 743-75. 3Will, J. Kemper. Questions and Answers on EPA's Authority Regarding Indian Tribes. Denver, Colo.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Region VIII, 1976. 322 ------- Concerning its ability to absorb and serve the anticipated population increases, the tribe has been increasing its profes- sional staff, particularly its capacity to plan for economic development. The Tribal Council, the legislative arm of tribal government, has also created specialized commissions to deal with revenue needs and environmentally related challenges. For exam- ple, the Navajo Tax Commission is studying the potential for es- tablishing property taxes within the reservation as a means of funding traditional services provided by the Council. In addi- tion, this Commission is involved in efforts to renegotiate existing royalty rates for mining activity on Navajo land be- cause the tribe believes it did not receive equitable treatment in the past. Another special commission, the Navajo Environmental Protection Commission, was created in response to the Navajo's need for an independent environmental assessment, regulatory, and enforcement organization. This five-member commission has the authority to implement the environmental policy of the tribe, serves as a forum for environmental information collection, and considers adverse environmental impacts associated with potential development on the reservation.1 The county's economy is characterized by diversity as illus- trated by the 1973 distribution of employment shown in Table 5-23. However, the reservation economy is still predominantly agri- cultural, and the unemployment rate among Indians is well above the county average shown in Table 5-23. The traditional Navajo economy has centered around livestock grazing and near subsis- tence size irrigated plots. In recent years, subsistence agri- culture has been supplemented by turquoise jewelry making and weaving. Employment off the reservation and some industrializa- tion on the reservation have become necessary to provide employ- ment on land already used beyond its capacity for subsistence agriculture.2 Farmington is the economic service center for northwestern New Mexico and thus contains a major portion of the available professional and supporting services for the various industrial :For a discussion of the development of the Navajo Environ- mental Protection Commission and problems related to the Commis- sion's attempts to implement its regulatory and assessment potential, see Cortner, Hanna J. The Navajo Environmental Pro- tection Commission and the Environmental Impact Statement, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin 27. Los Angeles, Calif.: University of California, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 1976. 2Austin, Lynn A., et al. Socio-Economic Impacts of Coal Mining on Communities in Northwestern New Mexico, Bulletin 652. Las Cruces, N. Mex.: New Mexico State University, 1977, p. 35. 323 ------- TABLE 5-23: EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION IN SAN JUAN COUNTY, 1973 INDUSTRY Total Civilian Work Force Total Employed Agricultures Manufacturing Mining Contract Construction Transportation, Communications, and Utilities Wholesale and Retail Trade Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Government Services and Miscellaneous Total Unemployed EMPLOYEES 21,193 19,371 1,597 1,754 1,803 1,943 2,015 3,596 438 3,439 2,787 1, 822a % OF EMPLOYED 100.0 8.2 9.1 9.3 10.0 10.4 18.6 2. 3 17.8 14.4 Source: State of New Mexico Department of Development, Economic Development Division. a8.2 percent of labor force. and agricultural activities in the area. However, some supporting services are available in Aztec, Bloomfield, and Shiprock. Per capita income in the county was $3,147 in 1972, which was below the average of $3,512 for the state as a whole.1 For the Navajo Nation as a whole, the median individual income was $1,984 in 1969 and about $2,220 in 1972, well below the county and state averages.2 Thus, relatively higher incomes off the reservation contrast sharply with low incomes among Navajos. 1 University of New Mexico, Bureau of Business and Economic Research. New Mexico Statistical Abstract, 1975. Albuquerque, N. Mex.: University of New Mexico, 1975. 2U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Census of Population: 1970; Subject Reports; Final Report PC(2)-1F: American Indians. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973. 324 ------- 5.4.3 Factors Producing Impacts Two factors associated with energy facilities dominate as the cause of social and economic impacts: manpower requirements and taxes levied on energy facilities. Tax rates are tied to capital costs, and/or the value of coal extracted, and/or the value of energy produced. Major taxes which apply to the scenario facilities (a power plant, Lurgi and Synthane gasification plants, Synthoil liquefaction plant, and uranium mill) and their asso- ciated mines are a sales tax, royalty payments on Indian-owned coal, and an energy conversion tax. The manpower requirements for each scenario facility and its associated surface mine are given in Tables 5-24 through 5-28. For all mines, the manpower requirement for operation exceeds the peak construction requirement by at least two times. However, the reverse is true for the conversion facilities. The peak con- struction manpower requirement exceeds the operation requirement by 1.7 (Synthoil plant) to 7.0 times (Lurgi and Synthane plants). In combination, the total manpower requirement for each coal mine- conversion facility increases from the first year when construc- tion begins, peaks, and then declines as construction activity ceases. The uranium mine-mill combination is characterized by a steady increase in manpower requirements. The peak total man- power requirement for each of the Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil mine-plant combinations is about 5,000 and, for the power plant, about 3,000. The fraction of the peak total manpower requirement needed for operation of the mine-plant combination ranges from 0.2 for the Lurgi and Synthane plants to 0.6 for the Synthoil plant. The total manpower required for operation of the Synthoil facility and its associated mine is more than three times that for each of the other plant-mine combinations. A sales tax which is tied to the capital costs of the fa- cilities, royalty payments which are tied to the value of the coal, and an energy conversion tax which is tied to the value of the energy produced generate revenue. The capital costs of the conversion facilities and mines hypothesized for the Farmington scenario are given in Table 5-29. For coal facilities,. costs range from about $1,125 million (mine-gasification plant) to $2,170 million (mine-liquefaction plant) in 1975 dollars. Capital costs of the uranium mine-mill are considerably lower at $30 million. Sales tax during the construction phase, most of which goes to the state government, is levied on materials and equipment onl} (Table 5-29). The current sales tax rate in New Mexico is 4 per- cent. 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SH 0) PL, en £ O -P 0 •H rH 4J (1) g II 0) >i N tji •H SH i co CD n £ s- K^t W C •P C •H QJ >- rH ,c c •H EH C, o rO r- 3 4 ) lj •t ) ) H LH • (U rH 4- V ti £ A C 4J -P a a) cc o 4-1 "• • . t3 g J H 3 j •\ , • £ MH 0 --H a, o r- H CO LO rO 0) CO L) SH rO SH rH ^. >i O rO O pi -P jg g >1 a 4-1 g 0 U 0 CO O g -H -POO SH £ ~~ m ro >i SH -P (U EM •rH rH SH to c >i rO (0 rO T3 rH 0) Q4 Q) T3 CO £ £ •rH (0 rH . O CO CT>-H r- H £ SH O O • rH SH -P 0 0) rH 0) 1 -P -P (0 u rO rjs (!) g II Q) g g 4-J QJ >i Q) ro m T3 O M •rH 0) rQ Pi P o en rH £ 0) O SH •H SH rH rO H XI •H g II II >i (0 T3 13 4H \ 0 rH § -0 g XI •H rO > g £ S 0) o W O CO CO rO --' co a •H T tJ -£ C OJ 4-1 S 4J co £ C 0 -H C •n -r t3 13 c (0 0) C N n (U -H r- SH co p rO 0) r) J; ffl 4-J r- •P O C fO CLi C Q >1 r cfl <~; rr > 1 • rH rfl •1 ------- value of federally owned coal,1 of which 50 percent is returned to state and local governments. However, all royalties for coal on Indian reservations are retained by the tribe. In New Mexico, an energy conversion tax is levied on the power plant at a rate of 0.4 mill per kWh. 5.4.4 Impacts The nature and extent of the social and economic impacts depend on the size and character of the community or communities in which workers and their families live, on the state and local tax structure, and on many other social and economic factors. A scenario, which calls for the development of power, Lurgi, Syn- thane, Synthoil, and uranium facilities according to a specified time schedule (see Table 5-1), is used here as a vehicle through which the nature and extent of the impacts are explored. The discussion relates each impact type to the hypothetical scenario and includes population impacts, housing and school impacts, economic impacts, fiscal impacts, social and cultural impacts, and political and governmental impacts. A. Population Impacts Employment data for both energy development2 and the NIIP3 are listed in Table 5-30. Population impacts were determined using an economic base model, construction and operation employment data from Table 5-30, sets of secondary/basic employment multipliers which increase during the early years of energy development (Table 5-31), and population/employment multipliers which include wives 1 This is the federal government's target rate; actual rates will vary from mine to mine. 2Employment data for energy facilities are from Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation,1975. 3For discussions of the NIIP, see Morrison-Knudsen Company. Navajo New Town Feasibility Overview. Boise, Idaho: Morrison- Knudsen,1975.Morrison-Knudsen's population projections of the project are from Zickefoose, Paul W. A Socioeconomic Analysis of the Impact of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center Area. Las Cruces, N. Mex.: New Mexico State University, Center for Business Services, 1974, p. 178. 332 ------- TABLE 5-30: NEW EMPLOYMENT IN SAN JUAN COUNTY FROM ENERGY DEVELOPMENT AND NAVAJO INDIAN IRRIGATION PROJECT, 1975-2000 YEAR 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 ENERGY CONSTRUCTION 0 40 250 620 1,120 1,560 2,890 5,440 6,880 70 820 2,890 4,890 2,830 0 0 0 0 30 260 1,010 2,070 2,380 1,730 640 0 ENERGY OPERATION 0 0 0 0 270 270 550 660 940 1,040 2,130 2,130 2,400 2,400 3,270 3,270 3,270 3,270 3,270 3,270 3,270 3,270 3,270 3,550 4,180 5,100 NAVAJO INDIAN IRRIGATION PROJECT3 0 460 570 660 810 980 1,190 1,510 1,600 1,740 1,780 2,120 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140 TOTAL 0 500 820 1,280 2,200 2,810 4,630 7,610 9,420 2,850 4,730 7,140 9,430 7,370 5,410 5,410 5,410 5,410 5,440 5,670 6 ,420 7,480 7,790 7,420 6,960 7,240 Source: Zickefoose, Paul W. A Socioeconomic Analysis of the Impact of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center Area. Las Cruces, N. Hex.: New Mexico State University, Center for Business Services, 1974, p. 178. 333 ------- TABLE 5-31: ASSUMED SECONDARY/HAS1C EMPLOYMENT MULTIPLIERS FOR NAVAJO/FARMINGTON SCENARIO, 1976-2000a DATE 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993-2000 CONSTRUCTION PHASE MULTIPLIERS ANGLO 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 NAVAJO 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 OPERATION PHASE MULTIPLIERS ANGLO 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 NAVAJO 0.20 0.25 0.30 0,35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0. 70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 ASSUMED POPULATION/EMPLOYEE MULTIPLIERS13 ACTIVITY Construction Operation Service NON-NAVAJO NAVAJO 2.05 5.0 2.30 5.0 2.00 j 4.0 aThese values were determined by synthesizing materials from several sources. See New Mexico State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agri- cultural Business. Socioeconomic Impact on Rural Communities of Developing New Mexico's Coal Resources' Las Cruces, N. Mex. : New Mexico State University , 1975, pp . 37-53; Morrison-Knudson Company. Navajo New Town Feasibility Over- view. Boise, Idaho: Morrison-Knudsen, 1975"; Robbins, Lynn A. The Impact "of Power Development on the Navajo Nation, Lake Powell Research Pro}ect Bulletin 7. Los Angeles , Calif .: University of California, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 1975; U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclama- tion. El Paso Coal Gasification Project, New Mexico: Draft Environmental State- ment. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, Z"Ickef oose , Paul W. A Socioeconomic Analysis of the Impact of New Highway Con- struction in the Shiprock Growth Center Area. Las Cruces, N. Mex.: New Mexico State University Center for Business Services, 1974; U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Western Gasification Company (WESCO) Coal Gas- ification Project and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New~ Mexico: Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah": Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, T976. Navajo household size was 5.1 persona per household in 1970 and the multipliers in the table may be large on average considering single workers. bNon-Navajo '.Anglo) population multipliers are adapted from Mountain West Re- search. Construction iv'orker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976. 334 ------- in service jobs (Table 5-31).l The resulting projected population increases are .shown in Table 5-32, Figure 5-6, and Figure 5-7. In this analysis, population increases are assumed to be absorbed both by existing communities and by a new town to be built in the Burnham area by energy developers. The populations for the new town in Table 5-32 are postulated as an example of the effect of the town. It would generally house less than 20 percent of the Navajo population in the county. Because of the assumptions concerning Navajo employment, the Navajo population in San Juan County is expected to double by 1983 and to reach approximately 80,000 by 2000. (For example, if fam- ily members of Navajos remain in Arizona, then the estimates in Table 5-32 are high.) Farmington will grow to 50,000 by 1987, but after a construction phase will not reach that size again until 2000. Overall, the county population will more than double be- tween 1975 and 2000 in the scenario. The population of the county will increase about 33 percent by 1980 and 86 percent by 1990. The relative proportion of Na- vajos should increase from the present 40 to 50 percent. Some of the impetus for the increase in Navajo population will be the job opportunities afforded by the NIIP. Much of the increase is expected to occur in the vicinity of Shiprock, where housing with plumbing is being provided by the Navajo Tribe, but the new town would eventually be the largest urban area in the Navajo part of the county. Population change also included natural increase which was assumed to be: 1.0 percent annually from 1975 to 1990 and 0.8 percent thereafter for the Anglo population; and 2.0 percent from 1975 to 1990, and 1.5 percent thereafter for the Navajo popula- tion. The Indian employment on energy projects was assumed to be one-half of the total through 1990 and 80 percent after 1990. All energy employees are assumed to come from outside of San Juan County. .Ninety percent of NIIP employment is assumed to be Navajo, 10 percent of which is assumed to come from outside San Juan County. See U.S., Department of Interior, Bureau of Recla- mation. Western Gasification Company (WESCO) Coal Gasification Project and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New Mexico: Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976, pp. 3-173 to 3-178. 2Morrison-Knudsen Company. Navajo New Town Feasibility Over- view . Boise, Idaho: Morrison-Knudsen, 1975. Although the pre- liminary plans for the town suggest a fairly even Navajo-Anglo population, its location on the reservation and Farmington's proximity will probably eliminate its attraction to non-Indian families. WESCO1s final environmental impact statement does not discuss a new town, stating that it is not a near-term possibility. 335 ------- O U CO tf o cn w EH CO w o H EH CN ro I in PQ < EH o o o CN in cn o cn cn CO cn i i i in CO cn 00 cn o oo rH in r- cn rH O 1 — 1 EH U 0 "" 000 o m in r- «» T CN cn ro rH rH in O O 0 o o o ^T rH ro o ^r o rH rH «tf O O O o o o CN vD VD cn ro rr H ro O 0 0 o o o (^ ^J1 LO O rH rH rH i-H ^T 000 O 0 0 rH t 0 co en ro ro O O o m o o oo in cn oo us en ro O O 0 o o o 00 < 00 in "sp m CN 000 0 O 0 0 •* » "^J1 1 — 1 CN O o cn o 0 00 rr VD O O ^ r>T m 0 o °I CN ^ 0 0 in o in o m CN in in o o 0 ^D ro o o 0 . in CN 0 •n rd C > O ^ G rO -POO <0 >H EH SH rH > a cu ns H -H £ XI -P 0) xl (U -P 0 to cn 2 O EH CD PS O O O O O O O O VD O CO CN cn co ro ro o o o o 0 O O 0 in 1^5 VD rH [-" en ro ro ^ O O 0 O in o in o \& oo ro oo ro oo ro CN ^ 0000 o o o o rH rH 00 rO O O ro ro in rH 0 0 0 O o o o o in rH rH ^O o oo ro CN < o o o o o o o o CN r^ r- rH co cn ro ro ^ o o o o o o o o CO O P- CN •y r- CN CM ro 0 0 0 O 0 0 0 O cn VD rH co ^ ««. ^ V r~- m CN rH CN O 0 ^Q ^o ^D 0 o CO K ro VD o 0 CO m o o ro rC U3 O O ^ in o o [-- •vT VO o o r^ MD ^ o o ^l1 «. r- ro c 0 •H fi Cn -H M C H— 1 CD -H u E M r-n tn g rH rO -P O -P ;3 O U -P 3 o X! (0 IH O 0) tn d ccj M )H O O rH -H Cfj -P X! O Q) cn -i-i CD o i) t_j (0 CX e •H M -P CD tn xl CD -P rH tn 4H QJ -P -H a; 0) 0) Q) 336 ------- 70- en 3 o O -H +J 03 60- 50- 40- 30- 20- 10- Total Nonreservation Farmington Aztec Bloomfield Other Nonreservation 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 5-6: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR NON-NAVAJO PORTION OF SAN JUAN COUNTY, 1980-2000 337 ------- c en O -U fl O •H -P rH cu O CM 80 70- 60- 50 40 20 10 1975 Total Reservation Other Navajo New Town Shiprock Area 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 5-7: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR NAVAJO RESERVATION PORTION OF SAN JUAN COUNTY, 1975-2000 338 ------- B. Housing and School Impacts (1) Housing As shown in Table 5-33, the number of households in the county are projected to increase 145 percent by 2000. Navajo housing demand will double by 1983 and will be three times the 1975 level by the late 1990's. Much of the required new housing could be supplied by con- tinued expansion of the Navajo Tribal housing development at Shiprock, which has already provided several hundred one- and two-family homes with plumbing.1 A shortfall in housing supply could result in a scattering of hogans, shanties, and mobile homes without running water in the vicinity of the irrigation and energy projects. If the new town is built, it could provide new employment opportunities and supply a significant proportion of the housing need for Navajo families. Water for the town could be drawn from the San Juan River along with water for the energy facilities. Finally, clusters of housing in the Farming- ton/Shiprock corridor are likely. Some Navajo homes in this area might be provided with running water by 1985. By 2000, new off-reservation housing demands in Farmington, Aztec, and Bloomfield will be approximately 4,000, 800, and 300 homes, respectively. With few vacancies in the housing market, many of these may be mobile homes near existing developments or along the highway east and west of Farmington.2 The spread of mobile homes outside urban areas will be constrained primarily by the availability of water but also by the availability of other utilities and the location of privately owned land in the county. (2) Schools As shown in Table 5-33, school enrollment can be expected to increase through 2000. These school enrollment changes also show distinctions between Indians and non-Indians. The Central Consolidated School District serving the reservation will be the most affected. The number of students will more than double by Running water is unavailable except in the northern section of the county. Even there, it was unavailable until Shiprock was hooked up with the Farmington municipal system. In the cen- tral and southern parts of the county, poor quality groundwater is the only supply. See Section 5.3. 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. El Paso Coal Gasification Project, New Mexico: Draft Environ- mental Statement. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1974, pp. 2-123 to 2-130. 339 ------- TABLE 5-33: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IN SAN JUAN COUNTY, 1975-2000 CATEGORY Households Elementary Enrollment (20% of population) c Secondary Enrollment (10% of population) c YEAR 1975 1980 1983 1985 1987 1990 1995 2000 1975 1980 1983 1985 1987 1990 1995 2000 1975 1980 1983 1985 1987 1990 1995 2000 NAVAJO RESERVATION PORTION3 5,000 7,200 11,000 10,100 12,600 14,350 16,200 19,900 5,000 7,200 11,000 10,100 12,600 11,500 12,950 15,900 2,500 3,600 5,500 5,050 6,300 5,750 6,500 7,950 NONRESERVATION PORTIONb 11,350 14,150 19,600 16,500 20,300 17,750 19,350 20,200 7,500 9,350 12,950 10,900 13,450 11,700 12,750 13,300 3,750 4,650 6,500 5,450 6,700 5,850 6,400 6,650 TOTAL 16,350 21,350 30,600 26,600 32,900 32,100 35,550 40,100 12,500 16,550 23,950 21,000 26,050 23,200 25,700 29,200 6,250 8,250 12,000 10,500 13,000 11,600 12,900 14,600 aBased on five persons per household through 1985 and four per- sons per household after. bBased on 3.3 persons per household. Both this and the above assumption give high estimates during construction. C0verall averages, which may be high during construction. 340 ------- 1983 to 16,500 and then remain relatively constant until about 2000. Both elementary and secondary enrollment peak in 1987 and again in 2000, and a low point appears about 1985. At 30 students per classroom, about 300 classrooms will be needed in the Central School District by 1983 and another 250 by the year 2000. Financing for school construction on the res- ervation could be gained from the proposed energy projects if property taxes are levied, as they can be used for this purpose.1 However, the revenues would lag behind the need by as much as 3 years. Some prepayment plan, or the proceeds from coal roy- alties, could provide the revenue for school construction with the necessary lead time.2 New schools in the Burnham area, in particular, would help eliminate the present necessity for board- ing schools.3 In the Farmington, Aztec, and Bloomfield School Districts, enrollment can be expected to increase somewhat during construc- tion peaks.11 The Farmington School District had excess class- room capacity in 19745 but will need about 265 classrooms by 1983. With expected enrollments, the need for additional class- room space will be minimal after the 1980's. In higher education, the San Juan College campus of New Mexico University in Farmington (600-700 students) and the Ship- rock Branch of Navajo Community College (more than 200 students) 1 Property taxes generally do not exist in the Navajo Nation. However, a large portion of school costs are provided from the state level. 2Some of the financial requirements will also be borne by the federal government, since currently about one-fourth of the Navajo children attend BIA schools. 3U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. El Paso Coal Gasification Project, New Mexico: Draft Environ- mental Statement. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1974, pp. 2-121, 3-72 to 3-73. uNo large increases are expected because of the declining birth rate of the white population. U.S., Department of Com- merce, Bureau of the Census. "Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age and Sex: 1972-2000." Current Popula- tion Reports, Series P-25, No. 493 (1972). 5Real Estate Research Corporation. Excess Cosr Burden, Problems and Future Development in Three Energy Impacted Com- munities of the West. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of "Minerals Policy Development, 1975, p. IV-14. 341 ------- will perhaps triple their current enrollments. As employment opportunities become available to more Navajos, vocational train- ing at the Shiprock Branch may increase even more. Training fa- cilities, such as the Navajo Engineering and Construction Author- ity, train workers in heavy construction trades; the demand for this training can be expected to increase as more energy develop- ment takes place on the reservation.l C. Economic Impacts One immediate change from energy development will be in local income distribution. In San Juan County, positive bene- fits will accrue to the Navajo population as new employment op- portunities allow them to increase their incomes and improve their living standards. Currently, two of the greatest disparities between Indians and non-Indians occur in income and housing conditions. The 1969 median income of white families in San Juan County was $9,343; the overall median in the county was $8,139. On the Navajo Res- ervation as a whole, a median individual income was $1,984;2 comparable data on Navajo family income in the county are not available. As shown in Table 5-34, the percentage of families with in- comes in the $8,000-10,000 range increases through 1985 and then declines.3 The median income and the proportion of households earning $15,000 and over fluctuates with the amount of con- struction activity (compare with Table 5-30). Overall, there will be relatively fewer low-income families, the result being a fairly constant median income. However, an overall increase in earnings for Navajos is expected, primarily because of a greater number of on-reservation job opportunities. The pro- jected income distribution in Table 5-34 includes income increases for several hundred Navajo households currently in the area. De- creases in overall median income, when they occur, reflect a relative decrease in high-paying jobs in the oil and gas indus- tries . ^ickefoose, Paul W. A Socioeconomic Analysis of the Impact of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center Area. Las Cruces, N. Mex.: New Mexico State University, Center for Busi- ness Services, 1974, pp. 131, 148-49. 2U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Census of Population: 1970; Subject Reports: Final Report PC(2)-1F: American Indians. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973. 3The income estimates here do not take into account national trends in income growth from productivity gains and other causes. 342 ------- O o H CN EH I m r* H CTi EH CO - Q EH g O o cj u •Z rZi Q ID W EH ,3 CJ r< W W b O « ftj O I m CQ < EH H CO o b S3 o ^•0 Sp s ^ !tr r~"' Q 2 rf W < 2 a S«8 \|2a t^H -J ij S O H ffi I\|S 2 K., 10 < 0 CN U •00- O O-i O 0> °o°l in ^ 3< H CM O CT\ O CTi -o- CM t-1 rr iH i-H •00- O O Cft O O CFl O 0^ O O 0 C/i 2 0 CO < 0 W ffi - J F-i «* •co- te < w >H o o o o o o o m o m in o r~ r— i o vo o o csj ro CN CN ro n rH rH rH rH rH rH ro m oo r^ rH to rH r-H O\ CTl O rH 00 O CM CN CN M CN M fO n in o oo o o CM CN CN rH CN CN (N f-t rH rH rH rH rH o oo o «5r in oo oo r- oo oo oo oo o o o o o o in o T ^ oo <£> r~ n «3< m CN CN 0 rH rH rH rH rH in CM oo CM cri x> in r~~ r~ i^j isD o o o o o o OO VD O OO VD 00 VD in yj m in in 0 O 0 0 O 0 ^r oo r-» ^0 o ffv O\ C^ CT\ O rH rH rH rH rH CN CD 43 4-1 O O 01 CD !H to 3 CD CQ-rl - d CD U O to CJ CD \| 73 o CJ to m CD O-H -P -H d cj g - 4-> (0 to - rd < CD g Q c/3 • to en CD • -P D rfl g CO o Lj It 4H O 73 CTi rd fd d •rH CD SH CD rd g o in U r- d en H rH 73 rH i~H O O 4H ,£! 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The potential of a concentrated market in the new town near Burnham would be attractive to businesses, but several bottlenecks to business development might occur. A major problem will be fi- nancing new enterprises since credit, even from the Small Busi- ness Administration, appears to be difficult to obtain.1 Also, since reservation land is communally owned and may not be sold, a use-right must be obtained from both the tribal government and the area agency of the BIA before a business can be established. The application process involves some 20 steps and may take up to 5 years to complete.2 This has discouraged business activity on the reservation, including those in the two largest expenditure categories for Navajos: automobile and truck sales and food purchases.3 Most of the commercial benefits that will follow from an increase in the income of the San Juan County Navajos will go to businesses in Gallup and Farmington. It appears that business activity in these two communities will increase in any case, and that activity at Shiprock and the new town site could be encouraged by an easing of credit and tribal policies on land acquisition. Additional industries which may locate in the county include cattle processing facilities (feedlots and slaughter operations) of the Navajo Agricultural Products Industry, on-site facilities to process by-products of gasification, "* and a possible rail spur north from Gallup to B-urnham or Shiprock.5 There is con- siderable uncertainty regarding the latter two. The extent to which usual boom effects will occur in San Juan County is not known. Local inflation in housing costs and wage rates for service workers is taking place, but public ser- vices and facilities are in much better shape than in more 1\1.S., Commission on Civil Rights. The Navajo Nation: An American Colony. Washington, D.C.: Commission on Civil Rights, 1975, pp. 31-39. 2Ibid., pp. 39-40. 3Morrison-Knudsen Company. Navajo New Town Feasibility Overview. Boise, Idaho: Morrison-Knudsen, 1975, p. II-2. "Ibid., pp. III-l to III-2. 5Zickefoose, Paul W. A Socioeconomic Analysis of the Impact of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center Area. Las Cruces, N. Mex. : New Mexico State University, Center for Busi- ness Services, 1974, pp. 200-2. 344 ------- isolated areas with no large towns. Price increases for retail goods and services will affect both Indians and non-Indians; the largest effect will be felt by those who do not benefit from wage inflation. D. Fiscal Impacts Public finance aspects are complicated by the location of facilities on an Indian reservation, as well as recent changes in federal mineral policies. The "dual'entitlement" status of Indians means that the federal government provides many services (such as sanitation, health, and education), but local govern- ment must stand ready to provide services to Indians in their role as U.S. citizens.1 The tribal council acts as another level of government in performing many traditional local government functions, such as police protection. Nevertheless, no public agency can levy property taxes within the reservation, except for a few limited items. As noted above, the Navajo Tax Commis- sion is studying the potential for establishing property taxes. At rates comparable with Farming-ton's, some $57 million per year could be collected from the energy facilities in our scenario.2 The only substantial new revenue source available to the Tribal Council will be a royalty on coal. The amount of money involved is difficult to predict, because it depends on negoti- ation, but appears to be 12.5 percent.3 That would generate $47.3 million annually for the Navajos by the end of the century. For expenditures, the Tribal Council is assumed to provide all local government services for residents except education, health care, and construction of water and sewage facilities.1* •'U.S., Commission on Civil Rights. The Navajo Nation: An American Colony. Washington, D.C,: Commission on Civil Rights, 1975. 2Zickefoose, Paul W. A. So_ci gee gnomic Analysis of the Impact of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center Area. Las Cruces, N. Mex.: New Mexico State University, Center for Busi- ness Services, 1974, p. 152. 3"Navajos Up Royalty Requirements for New Mexico Coal Gasifi- cation Project." Coal Industry News, Vol. 1, No. 5 (December 12, 1977) , p. 9. ^In New Mexico, state and federal governments pay for most public school costs (79 percent in San Juan County), and more than one-fourth of the Navajo children attend federal (BIA) schools. The Indian Health Service handles the other functions named above. See Morrison-Knudsen Company. Navajo New Town Feasibility Overview. Boise, Idaho: Morrison-Knudsen, 1975, p. 111-16. 345 ------- The remaining functions should require $337 per capita for cap- ital costs1 and $129 per capita for annual operations.2 Combining these data with the projected population increases, tribal fi- nances would develop as shown in Table 5-35. The Tribe faces deficits at most times until 1983, when the second mine begins operations.3 Thereafter, royalties are more than adequate, yield- ing surpluses of up to $10 million per year. Off the reservation, local governments will likely rely pri- marily on residential and commercial property taxes, sales tax, and utility fees to obtain revenue from the energy developments. San Juan County's 1973 tax rolls showed noncorporate valuations of $3,030 per capita (1975 prices).1* Applying this factor to the prevailing Farmington mill levies5 and adding the current average utility bill ($216 per capita per year),* potential muni- cipal revenues are shown in Table 5-36. Sales and income taxes depend primarily on the aggregate of new income. Based on the projected distributions of household income and current New Mexico tax rates,7 an average of 4.4 per- cent of new personal income will be due the state in income tax. JTHK Associates, Inc. Impact Analysis and Development Pat- terns Related to an Oil Shale Industry; Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974, p. 30. 2U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. The Statistical Abstract of the United States. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975, Tables 429 and 432. 3Note that the population estimates include the irrigation project, but the revenue estimates do not. "Zickefoose, Paul W. A Spcipeconomic Analysis of the Impact of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center Area. Las Cruces, N. Mex.: New Mexico State University, Center for Business Services, 1974, p. 28. 5New Mexico, Department of Development, Economic Development Division, and University of New Mexico, Bureau of Business and Economic Research. Community Profile; Farmington, 1974-75. Santa Fe, N. Mex.: New Mexico, Department of Development, 1974. 6Real Estate Research Corporation. Excess Cost Burden, Prob- lems and Future Development in Three Energy Impacted Communities of the West. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, Table 17. 7Bureau of Census. The Statistical Abstract of the U.S. Table 435. 346 ------- TABLE 5-35: FISCAL IMPACTS ON NAVAJO TRIBAL GOVERNMENT (millions of 1975 dollars) YEAR 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1990 1995 2000 NEW CAPITAL INVESTMENT EACH YEAR 0.77 0.61 0.55 1.02 0.74 1.96 2.53 2.01 0 0 1.39 2.48 5.00 OPERATING COSTS ABOVE 1975 LEVELS3 (.29)0.29 (.23)0.53 (.21)0.74 (.39)1.13 (.28)1.41 (.75)2.16 (.97)3.13 (.77)3.90 (-1.52)2.38 (.90)3.28 (.89)4.17 (.95)5.12 (1.91)7.03 NEW COAL ROYALTIES13 0 0 1.98 1.98 3.96 3.96 3.96 8.26 8.26 12,54 16.50 16.50 23.09 SURPLUS (deficit) (1.06) (1.14) .69 (0.17) 1.81 (0.16) (1.70) 2.35 5.88 9.26 10.94 8.90 11.06 aNumbers in parentheses show increases over the previous year. not in parentheses are the operating costs for that year. If the rate is 55 cents per ton. Numbers TABLE 5-36: PROJECTED ADDITIONAL UTILITY FEES AND PROPERTY TAXES, NONRESERVATION COMMUNITIES (millions of 1975 dollars) SOURCE Property tax, state Property tax, local Utility fees 1980 0.12 0.46 1.13 1985 0.28 1.10 2.72 1990 0.47 1.85 4.55 1995 0.55 2.17 5.36 2000 0.72 2.85 7.03 347 ------- TABLE 5-37: PROJECTED ADDITIONAL INCOME AND SALES TAXES (millions of 1975 dollars) SOURCE Personal income Taxable sales State share, sales tax (4%) Local share, sales tax (2%) State income tax 1980 51.80 18.10 0.72 0.36 2.28 1985 107.30 37.50 1.50 0.75 4.76 1990 165.00 57.70 2.31 1.15 7.18 1995 197.60 69.20 2.77 1.38 8.75 2000 235.80 82.50 3.30 1.65 10.48 Assuming further, that five-eighths of personal income will be spent off the reservation, and that 56 percent of that will be on items subject to sales tax, income-related taxes can be sum- marized as in Table 5-37. Finally, the state of New Mexico taxes coal mining and elec- trical production directly. "Privilege" and "severance" taxes total 1.25 percent of the gross value of the coal (less some minor deductions). Electricity generation is taxed at a rate of 0.4 mill per kWh.] Based on scenario assumptions, these taxes should result in the revenues shown in Table 5-38. The various revenues calculated above can be regrouped by level of government, as shown in Table 5-39, and then compared with new expenditures (Tables 5-35 and 5-40). TABLE 5-38: PROJECTED TAX REVENUES, PRIVILEGE AND SEVERANCE TAXES (millions of 1975 dollars) SOURCE Coal Electricity 1980 0.8 0.0 1985 2.9 7.8 1990 4.2 7.8 1995 4.7 7.8 2000 7.3 7.8 The current law has been challenged as an unconstitutional interference with interstate commerce. See Bronder, Leonard D. Taxation of Coal Mining; Review with Recommendations. Denver, Colo.: Western Governors' Regional Energy Policy Office, 1976. 348 ------- TABLE 5-39: PROJECTED TOTAL REVENUES FROM ALL SOURCES (millions of 1975 dollars) LOCATION Reservation County, Municipal State Total: All state and local 1980 2.9 2.0 3.9 8.8 1985 9.0 4.6 17.2 30.8 1990 11.9 7.6 22.0 41.4 1995 11.9 8.9 24.6 45.4 2000 16.7 11.5 29.6 57.8 The simplest comparison to be made involves state government. A realistic assumption is that the state's costs will rise in proportion to population. These costs amounted to $621 per cap- ita in fiscal 1973.1 Applying a scale-up for inflation and San Juan County population growth, the following cumulative cost in- crease is projected for the state: $12.6 million in 1980, $28.8 million in 1985, $43.3 million in 1990, $51.1 million in 1995, and $63.0 million in 2000. These figures suggest that new state expenditures will be about twice as large as new revenues. However, not all of the county's new people will come from out of state.2 People who move about within the state will not cause any appreciable change in state government requirements. Although very difficult to forecast, at least half the new people should come from instate. If this is the case, the state government will experience very little net fiscal effect from these developments. However, the state, and its government, would grow in absolute size about 3 percent. Using basic data from a recent western planning study,3 capital costs for local government are estimated to be $2,360 per capita for county and municipal governments off the University of New Mexico, Bureau of Business and Economic Research. New Mexico Statistical Abstract, 1975. Albuquerque, Mex. N. University of New Mexico, 1975, p. 61. 2This has been the case for workers on the San Juan Gener- ating Plant project. See Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Re- gional Commission, December 1975, pp. 8-17. 3THK Associates, Inc. Impact Analysis and Development Pat- terns Related to an Oil Shale Industry; Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974, p. 30. 349 ------- TABLE 5-40: SUMMARY OF ADDITIONAL LOCAL GOVERNMENTAL EXPENDITURES AND REVENUES, OFF-RESERVATION (millions of 1975 dollars) LOCATION Expenditure Capital3 Operating Annual expenditure, if no borrowing Annual expenditure, with borrowing Revenue 1980 12.4 0.9 3.4 2.1 2.0 1985 17.3 2.1 5.6 4.9 4.6 1990 20.1 3.5 7.5 8.2 7.6 1995 8.8 4. 1 5.9 9.6 8.9 2000 18.2 5.4 9.0 12.6 11.5 aTotal for 5-year period ending at specified date. Current operating costs paid "as you go" plus all previous capital costs amortized over 20 years at 7-percent interest. reservation. Using New Mexico's average figures for local ex- penditures, these governments will also need $166 per person per year for operating costs. Combining these data with the projected population increases, additional local governmental expenditures are shown in Table 5-40. The previously tabulated revenue figures are included for comparison. On a "pay as you go" basis of financing, local government faces a negative fiscal impact (new expenditures exceeding new revenues) until about 1990, after which the fiscal impact turns positive. In consideration of that long-term prospect, the municipalities may decide to borrow the portion for capital ex- penditures. After taking interest costs into account, that method is seen to result in slight but consistent deficits, grow- ing to about $1.1 million per year by the end of the century. Finally, the federal government is more involved fiscally in this scenario than in the others because of the large Indian population. Federal commitments undertake the expense and/or administration of sanitation, health, education, and other func- tions. Moreover, the Department of Interior has a responsibility to oversee mineral lease terms and other major action of the Tribal Council. 350 ------- E. Social and Cultural Impacts Changes in the Navajo culture and lifestyle may be consid- erable during the next 25 years because of increased agricultural activities as well as energy development. Navajos traditionally emphasize sharing and communal possession (as opposed to personal ownership of property) and harmony with nature and the land (as opposed to modern agricultural and industrial activities).l De- velopment will result in challenges to these traditional atti- tudes and values, and conflicts will probably develop between the tribal government and locals.2 The Burnham chapter's rejec- tion of the proposed gasification-coal mining operations in the Burnham area is an example of this.3 Most Navajos seem to dislike urban living. For example, the growth of Shiprock as a relatively major settlement on the res- ervation occurred simultaneously with a large increase in drink- ing, automobile accidents, and child abuse. " Energy development is likely to bring even greater changes in family structures and daily schedules than urbanization. However, the availability of job opportunities on the reservation should be favored by most Navajos who prefer to work locally rather than off the reserva- tion. 5 practices of the Navajos seem to contradict this de- scription; for example, overgrazing is common. 2New Mexico State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business. Socioeconomic Impact on Rural Communities of Developing New Mexico's Coal Resources. Las Cruces, N. Mex.: New Mexico State University, 1975, pp. 217- 22; and Goodman, James M. "Some Observations on the Navajo Sense of Place." Unpublished paper, University of Oklahoma, Department of Geography, 1975; and Zickefoose, Paul W. A Socio- economic Analysis of the Impact of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center Area. Las Cruces, N. Mex.: New Mexico State University, Center for Business Services, 1974, pp. 39-45. 3New Mexico State University, Socioeconomic Impact on Rural Communities, pp. 435-36. This was hot a consensus decision. However, it is indicative of a tribal split. 4Zickefoose. Impact of Highway Construction in Shiprock Area. 5Ruffing, Lorraine T. "Navajo Economic Development Subject to Cultural Constraints." Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 24 (April 1976), pp. 611-21. 351 ------- Some benefits from development are certain, such as increases in income and purchasing power and the consequent capabilities of Navajos to buy or build modern homes. However, the increase in the Navajo population in San Juan County is certain to take place more rapidly than the provision of such things as medical care, housing, and other social services. The current gap be- tween medical needs and available care, already a major problem for the Navajos, will probably widen as population increases. Roads, utilities, and retail establishments may also lag behind the population growth. Quality-of-life effects on Farmington and the rest of the county are expected to be minor in comparison with those on the Navajo. During the oil and gas boom in the 1950's, Farmington's population grew more than 600 percent in 10 years. The expected rate of increase in coming years will be small by comparison. Although rapid growth has resulted in some service lags, notably in housing, Farmington's urban services and retail mix generally make it a better environment for its residents than smaller towns with the same problem but fewer amenities. As for health services, the San Juan County Hospital is being expanded and remodeled to triple the 97-bed capacity (in- cluding specialized beds) of 1973. Consequently, health care should be less of a problem in the future. Among western cities, Farmington is well-equipped to handle the impacts of energy de- velopments largely because of its size and infrastructure. Typ- ical boomtown problems are not as likely to occur in Farmington as they are in smaller, less developed localities. Increases in both Indian and non-Indian populations within the county will increase contact betewen the two groups. Rela- tions are likely to become strained, with increased conflict between Indians and non-Indians and between the Tribal Council and other governments. F. Political and Governmental Impacts As noted earlier, disagreements between the Navajo Tribal Council, local chapters, and individuals regarding the level of economic activitiy already exist. These are likely to continue, and perhaps even to intensify, as energy development becomes more extensive. For example, a confrontation over Navajo nego- tiation rights may occur, although the Navajos should be able to resolve their differences with the federal government more easily than some other tribes. Navajos will receive increased revenues from industrial operations on their land, but the specific quantities and sources of those revenues depend on the tribe's priorities and the ex- tent of the projects it pursues. Existing royalty rates are to be renegotiated by the Navajo Tax Commission because the tribe 352 ------- now believes that it did not receive fair treatment in the past. New contracts negotiated with prospective developers will provide more benefits to the tribes, not only in increased royalty rates but in such areas as training and jobs for Navajos. In some ways the tribe's income needs are greater than those of many local governments. For example, road-building presents a particular problem because the Tribal Council is not recognized as a local government for various federal cost-sharing programs.1 On the other hand, the federal government directly provides some services, such as health care. Participation in tribal affairs and government by local Navajo chapters and individuals has increased with increased min- ing and industrial development on the reservation. Opposition to Anglo developments on Navajo land and the Tribal Council's nontraditional policies on such issues could have serious effects on Navajo community spirit in the San Juan County area. Contrasts between the poor, traditional Burnham area and more modernized Shiprock are great. However, residents of both areas have opposed non-Navajo exploitation of Navajo lands.2 The increasing importance of Farmington as the center of economic and other activities can be expected to continue. Most of the city's revenue comes from city-operated utilities, in- cluding electricity, water, and solid waste treatment operations. The city also benefits from growth outside boundaries because it provides water to Shiprock and a number of unincorporated towns in the Farmington/Shiprock corridor. Property taxes are its smallest source of revenue. The sales tax and utility revenues are likely to increase as the county's population increases. How- ever, major capital improvements will be needed for adequate de- velopment of water and sewage systems. Police and fire protec- tion also need to be improved.3 1U.S., Commission on Civil Rights. The Navajo Nation: An American Colony. Washington, D.C.: Commission on Civil Rights, T975, p. 19. 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Western Gasification Company (WESCO) Coal Gasification Project and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New Mexico: Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976. 3Real Estate Research Corporation. Excess Cost Burden, Prob- lems and Future Development in Three Energy Impacted Communities of the West. Washington, B.C.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, pp. IV-4 to IV-13. 353 ------- As noted in the population impact analysis, the demand for housing in San Juan County will more than double by 1985, with off-reservation needs greatest in Farmington and Aztec. Assis- tance for these and other communities, particularly during the short term, will necessarily have to come from other levels of go\ . nment. Pressure will likely be exerted on the state to pro- vide mechanisms which make more money available to traditional lending institutions for home mortgage loans. Although New Mexico presently does not have an administrative division of housing to administer fiscal programs to assist in the development of low or moderate income housing in rural areas, the state does provide limited aid through other state agencies.1 Rapid energy develop- ment in the area may cause expansion of these administrative ac- tivities since eligibility for funds from the federal government's "Community Development Block Grant Program" requires that a hous- ing plan for assisting low- or moderate-income persons must be implemented by states requesting such assistance. The state also has a housing finance agency, the Mortgage Finance Agency, whose purpose is to assist in securing mortgage funds for traditional lending institutions. Due to the lack of a comprehensive countywide zoning plan, certain types of strip development in the San Juan Valley west of Farmington along U.S. 550 and on other limited private lands in the county are expected to continue.2 Mobile homes, in par- ticular, are likely to proliferate in the area, both on and off the reservation lands. Such development could result in unde- sirable impacts since the state does not now provide design cri- teria or standards for mobile home parks (except indirectly through health codes). Even if more effectively planned, the development of large parks for mobile homes (especially in remote areas) can lead to problems for local and county governments with regard to their ability to provide essential public services, regulate activities, control land use, and enforce regulations and standards. The state recently reported problems of enforce- ment of solid waste rules and regulations, indicating this was primarily because small communities lacked the necessary capital aRapp, Donald A. Western Boomtowns, Part I, Amended: A Comparative Analysis of State Actions, Special Report to the Governors. Denver, Colo.: Western Governors' Regional Energy Policy Office, 1976, pp. 20-22. 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Western Gasification Company (WESCQ) Coal Gasification Project and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New Mexico: Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976, p. 3-84 354 ------- for implementing required technologies and because of a signifi- cant lack of funds at the state level.l 5.4.5 Summary of Social and Economic Impacts Manpower requirements and the tax rates associated with en- ergy facilities are major determinants of social and economic impacts. For the mines, manpower requirements for operation exceed peak construction manpower requirements. However, the reverse is true for the conversion facilities; i.e., more labor is required for construction than for operation. In combination, requirements for each coal mine-conversion facility increase from the first year when construction begins, peak, and then de- cline as construction activity ceases. Total manpower required for operation of the Synthoil facility and its associated mine is more than three times that of other coal mine-plant combina- tions. A property tax, sales tax, royalty payments on Indian owned coal, and an energy conversion tax generate revenue for the local and state governments. Capital costs of the coal conversion facilities and mines hypothesized for the Farmington scenario range from about 1,125 (mine-gasification plant facility) to 2,100 (mine-Synthoil plant facility) millions of 1975 dollars. A sales tax of 4 percent is levied on the materials and equipment pur- chased in constructing each facility. However, no property tax is collected from facilities located on Indian reservations. Roy- alty payments are about 12,5 percent of the value of federally owned coal, of which 50 percent is returned to state and local government. However, all royalties for coal on Indian reserva- tions are retained by the tribe. In New Mexico, an energy con- version tax is levied on the power plant at a rate of 0.4 mill per kWh. If all of the energy facilities hypothesized are constructed, the 1975 population of San Juan County will more than double be- cause of both the energy and agricultural development proposed in the Navajo/Farmington scenario. The largest increases are ex- pected among the Navajo in the reservation portion of the county. The urban areas of the county (such as Farmington, Aztec, Ship- rock, and a new town near Burnham) will attract much of the new population. Most of the secondary employment growth will be in Farmington, bringing its population to about 50,000 by the year 2000. The largest increases in the demand for housing and schools will also be on the Navajo Reservation. TRapp, Donald A. Western Boomtowns, Part I, Amended: A Comparative Analysis of State Actions~Special Report to the Gov- ernors. Denver, Colo.: Western Governors' Regional Energy Policy Office, 1976, p. 28. 355 ------- As employment opportunities and incomes improve, the life-- style of many Navajos will generally change from a dispersed rural existence to a more settled and affluent one . The current rural distribution represents the highest rural population dc-n-- sity in the nation. New provisions for modern housing with plumb- ing and kitchens will greatly affect the Navajo quality of lift-:, and this is a major impetus for Navajo support of the concept •>!" a new town in the Burnham area.1 Public services, especially health car^ f wat-_:r, and sewc>::..,? will be among the greatest needs ooth on and o:.f rhe- i ese rvat i o-i , Coordination between the tribe, local Anglo governmorrcs , and t tic- federal aovernment will become important within the county so that Ihe quality of growth can be controlle d . Th;-1 M. iiv- i:.,:,1-:,' must derive virtually all its new revenues f^oin coa] i The above analysis has shown that a royalty rate of :3r ton would ultimately provide net surpluses of more than $10 mi I lion per year. However, deficits may be experienced as late- ,-.,.-. 1982. Local Anglo governments similarly can expect; surpluses eventually (late 1980 's) but deficits in the short run,. 5.5.1 Introduction The area considered for ecological impacts in the Navajo/ Farmington scenario is bounded on the west by the Utah and Arizona borders and on the north by the San Juan National Forest. The study area extends eastward as far as the Chama River and south- ward to the Chaco Canyon.3 Elevations range from 5,000 feet over much of the desert to 9,000 feet in the mountain areas. Energy development at Navajo/Farmington will take place in a desert environment. As noted earlier, the average annual rain- fall is 6-8 inches in most of the area and up to 10 inches at higher elevations. Limited precipitation, coupled with excessive grazing are the major factors controlling the composition and productivity of the terrestrial ecosystem. aMorrison-Knudsen Company. Navajo New Town Feasibility Overview. Boise, Idaho: Morrison-Knudsen, 19-75. 2Some net income should be derived from the irrigation pro- ject, but this cannot be estimated at present. 3This area includes most of the present and potential iriflu- CIK-CO of human populations living in the Farmington area and en- compasses the ranges of migratory game animals. ences 356 ------- 5,5,2 Existing Biological Conditions The coal fields being developed at Navajo/Farmington lie in a broad expanse of desert. Table 5-41 summarizes plants and ani- mals characteristic of the biological communities found in the scenario area. Vegetation south of the San Juan River is very sparse desert grass and shrubland, with species composition re- flecting the slight saltiness of much of the soil. Indian.and non-Indian ranchers are a major influence of this ecosystem. For exciiiipi'^, live-stock grazing on the Navajo Reservation has removed most of the plant cover, and much, of the topsoil has been carried away by erosion. The scarcity of water in the area also limits animal popula- tion. The fauna is typified by a variety of desert-adapted ro- dents, lizards, and songbirds. Several birds of prey are found in the area. Foxes, coyotes, and badgers constitute the bulk of the mammalian predators. Except for small numbers of antelope using the more productive grass and shrublands northeast of Farm- ington, there are few game animals in the area. Rare or endan- gered species include the peregrine falcon, bald eagle, and black-footed ferret. The desert is bounded on the north by irrigated croplands, natural marshlands, and riparian woods found in the San Juan River floodplain. In addition to a relatively diverse and abun- dant assemblage of mammals and reptiles, this zone of well-watered vegetation supports a wide variety of birds, both resident and migratory. For example, the waterfowl habitat of the San Juan Valley is of regional significance.2 The foothills to the north and east are pinyon-juniper wood- land with some scrub oak and a variety of grasses and forbs. Greater rainfall in these areas makes the foothills more produc- tive than the desert grass and shrublands. Consequently, the fauna is more diverse and abundant there, especially the bird life, which finds a broad spectrum of food and habitats within this type of vegetation. These foothills are also important areas for deer, especially in winter. Above the pinyon-juniper zone and more distant from Farming- ton lie coniferous forests consisting primarily of ponderosa pine xThe San Juan Valley lies in the Central Flyway and provides habitat for winter migratory waterfowl and spring breeding popu- lations . 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Southwest Energy Federal Task Force. Southwest Energy Study, Appendix H: Report of the Biota Work Group. Springfield, Va.: National Technical Infor- mation Service, 1972, PB-232 104, pp. 26-30. 357 ------- TABLE 5-41: SELECTED COMPONENTS OF MAIN COMMUNITIES, NAVAJO/FARMINGTON SCENARIO COMMUNITY TYPE CHARACTERISTIC PLANTS CHARACTERISTIC ANIMALS Desert Grassland-Shrub Blue grama Galleta grass Indian ricegrass Alkali scaton Russian thistle Shadscale Mormon tea Ord's kangaroo rat Silky pocket mouse Spotted ground squirrel Whitetailed prairie dog Collared lizard Horned lark Coyote Antelope Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Pinyon pine Utah juniper Curl-leaf mountain mahogany Cliff rose Gambel oak Barbary sheep Mule deer Cliff chipmunk Pinyon mouse Gambel's quail Pinyon jay Riparian Indian ricegrass Rabbitbrush Tamarisk Willows Cottonwood Elm House mouse Western harvest mouse Porcupine Desert cottontail Red fox Great blue heron Mule deer Midelevation Conifer Forests Ponderosa pine Blue spruce Douglas fir Aspen Moutain maple Alder Oceanspray Gambel oak Mule deer Elk Turkey Chickadee Cooper's hawk Band-tailed pigeon Pigmy nuthatch Subalpine Conifer Forests Corkbark fir Subalpine fir Engelmann spruce Aspen Mountain maple Box myrtle Snowberry Mule deer Elk Mountain goat Bighorn sheep Beaver Marmot Marten Blue grouse Gray jay 358 ------- and Douglas fir. This vegetation supports a diverse fauna dis- tinct from that of the pinyon-juniper zone. For example, beaver inhabit most of the mountain streams, and bald eagles winter in this area. Game animals include turkey, as well as deer and elk during the winter. The highest forest type is dominated by corkbark fir and Engelmann spruce. Alpine meadows occur above the timberline. Big game animals use these high forests and meadows as summer range. The quality of the aquatic habitat in the San Juan River is influenced by the Navajo Reservoir, constructed in 1962, which is located about 45 miles upstream from Farmington. Cold water dis- charged from the lower layers of the reservoir controls stream conditions 15-18 miles below the dam.: Beyond this distance the river assumes a more typical desert character, becoming warmer and silty. The colder waters support a trout fishery, and a lim- ited warm-water fishery is located near Farmington. Below Farm- ington, many nongame fish occur; however, the water is too turbid for game fish. Other streams in the area are primarily inter- mittent; and while they support short-lived invertebrate and plant populations, they probably do not contain fish. The mineral cycles of arid desert land in San Juan County are "slowed down" relative to many temperate grasslands and for- ests. Nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus are confined to the upper soil layers, due to limited leaching, and this may separate them from the plant roots.2 Also microbial decomposition of litter and wood is limited to the short periods of adequate soil moisture following rainstorms.3 However, the principal factor :U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. El Paso Coal Gasification Project, New Mexico: Draft Environ- mental Statement. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1974, p. 2-84. 2See Jurinak, J.J., and R.A. Griffin. Factors Affecting the Movement and Distribution of Anions in Desert Soils, US/IBP Desert Biome Research Memo 72-38, 1972. Skujing, J. Nitrogen Dynamics in Desert Soils; I, Nitrification, US/IBP Desert Biome Research Memo 72-40, 1972. 3Tiedeman, A.R., and J.O. Klemmedson. "Nutrient Availabil- ity in Desert Grassland Soils Under Mesquite (Prosopis juliflora) Trees and Adjacent Open Areas." Soil Science Society of America Proceedings, Vol. 37 (January-February 1973), pp.107-11. 359 ------- limiting vegetative production is usually moisture rather than nutrients.1 5.5.3 Factors Producing Impacts Four factors associated with construction and operation of the scenario facilities (a power plant, Lurgi plant, Synthane plant, Synthoil plant, uranium mill, and their associated mines) can cause ecological impacts: land use, population increases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes. With the exception of. land use, the quantities of each of these fac- tors associated with each facility were given in previous sec- tions of 'this chapter. Land-use quantities are given in this section, and the others are summarized. Land use by each of the facilities proposed for the Farming- ton area is given in Table 5-42. Acres used during the lifetime (30 years) of each coal facility range from 11,605 (gasification plant-mine combination) to 27,300 (power plant-mine combination). By comparison, the uranium mine-mill requires only 350 acres. Land use by NIIP, a large nonenergy development which began op- eration in 1976, will affect the ecosystems in the scenario area.2 Following the initial phase, the NIIP will add about 10,000 acres to the system each year until it reaches its planned limit of 96,630 acres in 1986. Manpower required for construction and operation of the fa- cilities is expected to cause an increase in urban population. Peak manpower required for construction of the facilities is The production of vegetation is low. The gross primary productivity of the several vegetation types found in the area is estimated to be about 1.7xl06 kilocalories per hectare per year, which is almost an order of magnitude less than productiv- ity at the other scenario locations (except for Kaiparowits) of this study. Productivity is chiefly limited by rainfall, and coverage values for the sparse vegetation range from about 5 to 20 percent. 2The system will consist of a main open canal and three laterals, with water delivered to the fields by sprinkler sys- tems. Possible crops are corn and sugar beets, and several crops a year are feasible. The Animas-La Plata Project, a Bureau of Reclamation program of reservoirs and irrigated agriculture in two river valleys, is roughly one-seventh the size of the NIIP and will use Animas River water, which will be returned to the San Juan through the La Plata River. 360 ------- TABLE 5-42: LAND USE BY SCENARIO FACILITIES21 FACILITY Conversion Facilities Power Plant (3,000 MWe) Lurgi or Synthane Gasification Plant (250 MMcfd) Synthoil Plant (100,000 bbl/day) Uranium Mill (1,000 mtpy) Associated Mines For Power Plant (12.2 MMtpy) For Lurgi Plant (7.3 MMtpy) For Synthane Plant (6.6 MMtpy) For Synthoil Plant (12.2 MMtpy) Uranium Underground Mine (1,100 mtpd) LAND USE ACRES PER YEAR 830 360 360 660 NA ACRES PER 30 YEARS 2,400 805 2,060 280 24,900 10,800 10,800 19,800 70 MWe = megawatt-electric MMcfd = million cubic feet per day bbl/day = barrels per day mtpy = metric tons per year MMtpy = million tons per year mtpd = metric tons per day NA = not applicable aThe land used by the coal mines will increase every year by the amount given in the table for 30 years, the life-time of the facilities. However, the land occupied by a conversion facility or by the underground uranium mine will not vary after construction of the project. about 2,800 for the power plant and mine, about 5,000 for each of the other coal facilities, and about 230 for the uranium fa- cility. After the facilities are constructed, manpower required for operation of the power, Lurgi, and Synthane plant and mine combinations is about 1,000 each, for the Synthoil plant and mine, over 3,000, and for the uranium mine and mill, about 1,100. The water requirement for the power plant (about 29,000 acre- ft/yr assuming high wet cooling and 75 percent load factor) is significantly greater than that required by the synthetic fuels plants or by the uranium facility. Of the coal facilities the Lurgi plant requires the smallest water quantity—about 7,128 acre-ft/yr (assuming high wet cooling and 90 percent load factor), 361 ------- The uranium mine and mill will require about 1,350 acre-ft/yr. Water will be withdrawn from the San Juan River to meet the water requirements of the facilities. Wastewater from the facilities directed to ponds or treatment facilities will contribute con- taminants to surface and groundwater only as evaporative ponds leak or erode. The annual ambient air concentrations of S02 will range from 0.3 (Lurgi gasification plant-mine combinations) to 3.3 (Synthoil and power plant-mine combinations) yg/m3. Peak concentrations from the Synthoil plant will violate New Mexico's ambient air standard for HC by more than 130 times. 5.5.4 Impacts The nature of the ecological impacts caused by these factors depends on the plant and animal community type on which they are imposed. For example, the impact of land use depends on whether desert shrub, riparian, or pinyon-juniper communities are being used. Some of the land-use trends are now evident or could occur regardless of energy-related growth. A scenario, which calls for power, Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil plants, a uranium mill, and their associated mines to be developed according to a speci- fied time schedule (see Table 5-1), is used here as the vehicle through which the extent of the impacts is explored. Impacts caused by land use, population increases, water use and water pollution, and by air quality changes are discussed for each time period. A. To 1980 Most of the early impacts of the scenario will be a conse- quence of construction activities. At the same time, expansion of the NIIP will begin modifying the ecological baseline. Table 5-43 shows the expected land use by the proposed energy facil- ities, urban population, and NIIP in San Juan County. By 1980, the NIIP will use 30,000 acres (0.9 percent of the land in San Juan County); the urban population will require 5,142 acres (0.15 percent). The Lurgi facility will be the only facility operating by 1980 and will use 1,165 acres or 0.03 percent of the land in San Juan County. These lands are currently used for grazing, primarily by sheep. An average of 365 acres of forage is re- quired to support one cow with calf or five sheep per year (based on the BIA's recommended stocking rates).1 Table 5-44 gives the ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Western Gasification Company Coal Gasification Project and Ex- pansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New MexicoT Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976, p. 2-131. 362 ------- TABLE 5-43: LAND USE IN FARMINGTON SCENARIO AREA (in acres)a By Energy Facilities Conversion Facilities Power Plant (3,000 MWe) Lurgi Plant (250 MMcfd) Synthane Plant (250 MMcfd) Synthoil Plant (100,000 bbl/day) Uranium Mill (1,000 mtpy) Mines Power Plant (12.2 MMtpy) Lurgi Plant (7.3 MMtpy) Synthane Plant (6.6 MMtpy) Synthoil Plant (12.2 MMtpy) Underground Uranium Mine (1,100 mtpd) Subtotal By Urban Population Indian Reservations Residential Streets Commercial Public and Community Facilities Industry Subtotal Nonreservation Residential Streets Commercial Public and Community Facilities Industry Subtotal Subtotal Total Land Use Land Use for NIIP 1975 1,250 250 30 78 125 1,733 1,835 367 44 114 184 2,544 4,277 4 ,277 1980 805 360 1,165 1,645 1990 2,400 805 805 280 4,980 3,960 360 70 13,660 2,535 329 \| 507 40 102 164 2,280 2,065 413 50 128 206 2,862 5,142 6,307 30,000 61 157 254 3,513 2,495 499 60 155 250 3,459 6,973 20,633 96,630 2000 2,400' 805 80S 2,060 280 13,280 7,560 3,960 660 70 31,880 3,545 709 85 220 354 4,913 2,725 545 65 169 272 3,776 8,689 40,564 96,630 Total Land in San Juan County 3,523,840 Indian Reservations 2, 114 J 304 Nonreservation 1,409,536 MWe = megawatt-electric MMcfd = million cubic feet per day bbl/day = barrels per day mtpy = metric tons per year MMtpy = million tons per year mtpd = metric tons per day NIIP = Navajo Indian Irrigation Project Values in each column are cumulative for year given. Acres used by the urban population were calculated using population esti- mates in Table 5-32 for San Juan County assuming: residential land = 50 acres per 1,000 population; streets = 10 acres per 1,000 population; com- mercial land =1.2 acres per 1,000 population; public and community facil- ities = 3.1 acres per 1,000 population; and industry = 5 acres per 1,000 population. Adapted from THK Associates, Inc. Impact Analysis and Devel- opment Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry: Regional Development Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974. 363 ------- H H !^ a u w ai O s w O Pi H i< EH U O D H Q P^ O W O > 2 H H H O PM •<* «3< I LO W (-5 ffl i _ ! ! In i ! [^ 1 1 ON rH * H w I-H QL'IVA w J z M 1 c z u g M 1 H o 1 MAXIM i> O z rH X u o s Q fcj D Z § O CJ 63 2 Q SHEEP , ^J r^ co in CN ttp r^- ro ^ ^* f^4 "* CT. •'CALVES ^ C/3 B u , Cu w w w rjl w 3 tf tj ""v. CO 3 o L> H cn O ij 1 I in W OS U < (N LO TT •«* •«* ^ >X> ^ iH Ps) LO rr ON to uo CM r- tn «-H rH ro ^r tn co co rH ^ co r^ i-H U U tj O r^ ro ^r o o ro v0 o . ^"l ~ IXJ O O ^ rs) T co •rj ON (M. ^ • ^ CN CM T tn dp 0 (N CO - IN ro C4 IN c^ ON r- vo o fN ^r tn » o r~ CO » o ro tN >1 'd' 4J r~ 01 c ON >i 3 ^H IH O O U UH •P O >i C C IH o ', 0) rO OP O Q) (-} r\l 1 O O O 4-1 co ON o in ON ON O O rH rH (SI a > 3 -P C 1-5 in c H ra o) c > r n) in C r- w in H ON O rH J 1 in co i CN r^- r-< ^ ^ ON OP ro r- ON . (M tn c> r- ON ro 0 fN OP rH Cfi CN • 0 O ro - f~ vo en ON rH UH o «o O OJ -P BH 10 rH in H ui m Z ui O 0 J J 0 Cv o IH & c c M ;J IS tr -H U 1-1 r- 10 •5 c M O •r-i ra > ra z Ji CH M M Z Ul M • H 10 U-l U-l < c rO •H T> C M U-l O 3 rO OJ IH 3 m u < M CO and water line ri ghts-of-way . 01 c •H r-l 0) a •H a » c 0 •H Ul m •H E 111 C ra S-l 4J •o 4) 'O 3 r-l u c r-J 03 D 4J ry E -H 4— l~ rj 0 4-J "3 O tn 3 4-1 c 3 O U C IB 3 •^ C ra K c • H 0) rH 4-1 -p 10 CJ o 4-> a CJ 0) £ Ul U-l 0 o •rH 4-1 Ifl 1-1 ^r> ro .. r \D 4-1 C OJ ra 0) H PJ X 1-1 O yn •H IB !J 4J • H 3 2 C O O o 4J IH 0 a a t/} o 4-1 T3 0> 1-1 -rH 3 tr 01 t-l 01 •r-i in tu n 0 ro in VD ro cr> C • H e 3 U Ul Ifl ». tn 4J c 01 r-H ra > • H 3 tr 01 V4 r3 0) >, H 0) a a 0) 0) J2 tn OJ > •rH U-l C 0 •H 4-1 ro 3 a o a C rO £ 14 3 O/ £ >, £1 •a c ro 01 a) -H 4J -H rH •H O ra U-l >, 01 ^J 01 q 0) >, ja 0) Ul 3 •O C ro rH 01 •a 3 rH U c •H 4J Ul O rH Ul OJ l-i U < u ergy facilities is 18 percent in 1980, 66 pei and 89 percent post-2000. c 0) OJ JS 4-> >1 .Q T3 0) in 3 T3 C ro rH UH O •P C 0) u 1H 0) a, 0) x: 4J 0 o o CM C •H 4-1 C r4 2, CO r^ h 0 ON ON rH C •H 4J C 0) o forts . UH 0) C o •H 4J Ifl E ra rH U OJ 14 UH O OJ i-4 3 rH •H 10 UH Ul 0) E 3 Ul in < •o eau of the Census. 1974 Census of Ayricultuj M 3 CQ ^ 0) D l-l 0) g= O u UH o 4J C r= 4J H ro Q. QJ Q fc . U} D OJ y, New Mexico. Washinqton, D.C.: Governmeni 4J § 0 u c rO 3 f-5 a ro cn 4-1 iH o a 0) 05 >i IH 10 q •H E -•H r-l OJ H a< 364 ------- number of animals (using the present 64-36 ratio of sheep to cows in San Juan County1) foregone because of land used by the energy facilities and urban population. The acres lost by 1980 would support L4 cows with calves and 24 sheep (Table 5-44). Because actual Navajo stocking rates are often three times the recommended rate, the forage lost could support up to 42 cows with calves and 72 sheep, Imparts on wildlife at the Lnrgi construction site will be ,'x -lipa/'at i>eLy minor. The larcj^i , more mobile animals, such as b'-Tqe-'S and horned Larks, will be driven away by tho activity. '"[any af t.tie smaller species with restricted movement, patterns, such as the pocket mouse or kangaroo rat. will be killed directly. :Y •" • he rnnst part, the species affected are widespread throughout ti'.'-• >-'ntiL-^ desert, and the habitat, affected by construction ac- ;:.; :!.'-.'/ i.s .'i^ir.hor anjquo nor distinctive. The cliffs along the :,J>,jc s Riv-.--!-:, however, constitute important nestinq habitat, for th.: .'urea's birds of prey, particularly the golden eagle and red- t a.i 1 hawk. The water line feeding the Lurgi plant will be con- structed a Long the rim of the Chaco Wash, causing birds of prey to abandon their nests if the disturbance coincides with the nesting period. Once the water line is in place, some of the birds could be expected to return, but original nesting density wcuid j.iro!>ably not be restored. The population of San Juan County by 1980 is expected to be 82,700, up 30 percent. Increases in poaching of game animals and shooting of riongame species have been observed widely throughout the western states during periods of construction and mineral exploration. Poaching in northern New Mexico is already extensive, in some places equalling legal kill levels (according to a recent study in the Guadalupe Mountains by the New Mexico Department of Game and Fish).2 Antelope and deer are the species most likely to suffer from extensive poaching. The nesting birds 1U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 74 Census of Agriculture; Preliminary Report, San Juan County, New Mexico. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1976. 2Poaching differs from legal hunting in its impact on game populations by being indiscriminate with respect to age, sex, and season. By removing pregnant females and nonbreeding young, it can exert a significant impact on the ability of the popula- tion to maintain an adequate base of breeding adults. Poaching not only harms game populations directly, it reduces the number of surplus animals which may be legally taken. Without license revenues, management and patrol programs designed to protect the herds are difficult to finance. The New Mexico Department of Game and Fish views poaching as one of their most significant problems. 365 ------- of prey in the Chaco Wash are especially vulnerable to shooting as a consequence of waterline construction. Water use, water pollution, and air quality changes associ- ated with energy development will not cause significant impacts by 1980. B. To 1990 The NIIP will be completed by 1986 and the power, Lurgi, and Synthane plants and associated mines will be in operation by 1990. By 1990, land used by the NIIP will by 96,630 acres (2.7 percent of the land in San Juan County), by the energy facilities, 13,660 acres (0.4 percent), and by the urban population, 6,973 acres (0.2 percent). Loss of grazing lands will have agricul- tural impacts. The amount of land used by the energy facilities and urban population would support 45 cows with calves and 79 sheep according to the BIA recommended stocking rate. However, this is one-third of the actual stocking rate practiced (Table 5-44). Total acres used by the NIIP would support 212 CQWS with calves and 375 sheep (according to BIA stocking rates, Table 5-44). This total is 0.9 percent of the 1974 inventory of cows and sheep in San Juan County.1 The expansion of irrigated agriculture during this period will begin to establish a trend toward replacement of the desert fauna with species typical of agricultural areas. The limiting factors will become the availability of food and cover. Water- fowl may benefit from the habitat provided by surface canals ad- jacent to croplands, especially where grains are grown. Desert rodent species may be replaced by those commonly associated with croplands and which consequently have a higher probability of contact with man. Plague is endemic in northwest New Mexico, and as human and rodent populations grow, the probability of cases of human plague may increase. Actual habitat disruption by the facilities is, as indicated above, of minimal ecological significance in San Juan County. However, the increased population, which will exceed 13"0,000 by 1990 (more than twice the 1975 population), will have signif- icant ecological impacts. Game poaching and illegal shooting of nongame is expected to increase as population increases, which 1U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1974 Cen- sus of Agriculture; Preliminary Report, San Juan County, New Mexico. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1976. 366 ------- would cause noticeable declines in wildlife populations by 1990. The most vulnerable big game populations are the deer (Deer Man- agement Area 10) and the antelope located in the foothills south- east of Farmington. The declining deer populations are nonmigra- tory and their range is particularly accessible by vehicle on oil and gas exploration trails. The antelope herd is already declin- ing due to harrassment and illegal harvest, and could be virtually eliminated by 1990. Furthermore, the demand for legitimate hunt- ing, especially for big game, will also increase as construction- related populations grow. Hunting pressure on deer is already high especially in the foothills near Farmington. Between 1970 and 1973, hunters using Deer Management Area 10 (which includes almost all the New Mexico deer habitat in this scenario) increased from 8,159 to 12,600. Concurrently, hunter success dropped from 24.9 percent to 11.4 percent. Game animals on Navajo lands are subject to shooting that is controlled more by Indian social custom than by state laws and management. Game populations suffer from year-round or uncon- trolled harvest, as well as from habitat destruction by heavy graz- ing from domestic animals. Changes in wildlife use on reservation lands from new Indian towns or changed population distributions are not expected. The impact of the scenario in increased demand for backcoun- try types of recreation will begin to be felt by 1990. Initially, much of this demand will focus on the San Juan Mountains, partic- ularly the newly designated.San Juan Wilderness area and the ad- jacent Rio Grande Wilderness. The San Juan Forest staff has in- dicated that use permits may be used in order to limit access in 4-5 years. With demand for recreational areas, adjacent foothills and midelevation forests will be used to a greater degree.1 Vege- tation along stream banks, lakes, and in meadows at high altitudes may deteriorate due to the effects of camping, horses, and foot traffic.2 Other impacts might include: the disturbance and foothill lands controlled by the Ute Mountain and Southern Ute Reservations are, however, essentially closed to dispersed recreation by tribal attitude and policy. Most of the recreational pressure from the Farmington area is likely to concentrate in the foothills of the San Juan National Forest in Colorado and in the highlands east of Farmington, including the Carson National Forest. 2For example, the San Juan National Forest presently has rules restricting camping within a specified distance of certain high- altitude lakes and streams. High meadows are summer range for both deer and elk, and support distinctive populations of small vertebrates and insects of both scientific and aesthetic interest. Delicate alpine flora can be greatly reduced in diversity or de- stroyed after a few years of trampling. 367 ------- subsequent redistribution of elk, especially on calving grounds; fragmentation of key deer ranges by recreational development on private lands;1 harrassment of deer and other wildlife by heavy off-road vehicle (ORV) use in the hills east of Farmington, espe- cially in winter;2 and local erosion. Expanding urban development will also begin to produce notice- able impacts by 1990. Strip development along the San Juan River will fragment riparian habitat. While some species of ducks, shorebirds, and songbirds will lose some habitat due to this de- velopment, the loss will be compensated for, in part, by the NIIP. Species such as the great blue heron, which depend heavily on fish and other aquatic fauna, may decline. Wild dogs, already a prob- lem, will increase in numbers and disturb deer wintering in the uplands adjacent to the San Juan River or in the valley itself. Finally, heavy ORV use within roughly 20 miles of concentrations of human populations will deteriorate some terrain. Even without development of a new town at Burnham, some clustering of dwellings in the area may be expected because of its location relative to the NIIP and the energy developments. Water requirements for the scenario facilities and munici- palities will be met with water from the San Juan River. Water withdrawals may result in high concentrations of salt and sus- pended solids in the river. During construction of the facilities, runoff may also contaminate surface water. Groundwater may be contaminated by weathering and leaching of mine wastes and ash deposited in mined-out areas. Effluents from the facilities will be ponded and are not ex- pected to contaminate water. However, the increased effluents from the municipalities will require updated sewage treatment fa- cilities. Difficulties in procuring funds for adequately updating municipal sewage facilities may result in the direct discharge of most of the treated sewage generated by the growing urban popula- tions by 1990. Especially during late-summer periods of low flow, the added nutrients and biochemical oxygen demand carried in sew- age treatment effluent, coupled with agricultural runoff, could cause serious problems of algal growth and lowered dissolved oxygen 1 This could be particularly significant west of Durango, par- allel to U.S. 160 from Durango to Cortez, and in the Animas River valley below the Purgatory ski area. However, Colorado's land-use laws provide for county approval of such development, which may afford a measure of control. 2Assuming a total of 28,000 new families by 1990 and one ORV for each four families yields an estimate of 7,000 such vehicles. By 2000, the total is 8,750. These could exert very significant impacts on nearby foothill habitats if uncontrolled. 368 ------- in the river from Farmington to below Shiprock. If treatment fa- cilities are improved during the second half of the decade these effects will diminish. The four facilities operating by 1990 are sited far enough apart so that interaction of air pollutants from each will not be significant. Peak concentrations from the power plant-mine com- bination will violate New Mexico's 24-hour NOa ambient air stan- dard. Pollution due to Farmington's predicted population increase will violate New Mexico's 3-hour HC standards. The HC violation, which will exceed New Mexico's standard by a factor of five, ap- pears the most severe because it increases the likelihood of oxi- dant formation and photochemical smog. Although the uncertainty is high, expected ambient air concentrations of criteria pollu- tants are not expected to cause chronic or acute damage to eco- logical communities. C. To 2000 By 2000, all five of the scenario facilities will be operat- ing. Continued expansion of the coal mines from 1990-2000 plus construction of the Synthoil facility will use additional land. Land use by 2000 by the facilities and urban population will be 40,560 acres or 1.1 percent of the land in San Juan County (Table 5-43). The forage produced on this acreage would support 88 cows with calves and 156 sheep per year (according to the BIA stocking rate, which is one-third of the actual stocking rate, Table 5-44). Population in San Juan County will increase to 146,300, a 134 percent increase over the 1975 population. The increased population will exacerbate the ecological impacts described above associated with game poaching, illegal and legal hunting, recre- ation activities, and urban development. Local changes in the mineral cycles at Farmington are likely to occur in two major categories: physical changes in nutrient pools, and changes in the biological sector of the nutrient cycles. Physical changes will be due primarily to erosion (particularly from the wind) of surface soil and litter. These impacts will arise from construction, livestock overgrazing, recreational activities (especially ORV use), and surface mining. Another physical change will be the minimization of stream flow varia- tions as a result of the operational practices of the Navajo Reservoir. This will reduce the deposition of soil in riparian habitats which now occurs following high-flow periods. In general, water impacts associated with the scenario fa- cilities and urban population by 2000 will be qualitatively simi- lar to, but more intense than, 1990 impacts. The impact of bio- logical changes in the mineral cycles though vegetation loss will be limited spatially because the desert is divided into "micro- watersheds" with an individual shrub at the center of each small 369 ------- catchment area. l Changes from energy development will operate on the level of the individual microwatersheds rather than on some larger unit such as a stream watershed or plant community. By the year 2000, the withdrawal of water from the San Juan Basin will have risen to 226,000 acre-ft/yr for the NIIP, 66,400 acre- ft/yr for the new energy facilities,2 and about 15,350 acre-ft/yr of additional water for the increased population. Most of this water will be diverted directly from the Navajo Reservoir. 3 By 2000, the Navajo Reservoir, which is currently drawn down about 45 feet per year, will be drawn down 95 feet per year to meet the water requirements for the NIIP, energy facilities, and increased urban population. The impacts of these water withdrawals on the reservoir will be minor. Game fish populations now in the reser- voir are expected to continue to reproduce, although shallow water habitat important to spawning and juvenile survival will be sea- sonally reduced as the lake level drops. Algae and aquatic macro- phytes, if fluctuating lake levels allow their growth, will be stranded along the shoreline as the water recedes. After they have decayed and the lake level again rises, a decrease in dis- solved oxygen could occur in areas where vegetative growth is permitted. The net effect of the withdrawals may be a decrease in flows of cold water downstream. Although the storage project maintains a minimum flow of 400 cubic feet per second (cfs) for downstream use, lowering of potential flows closer to this minimum will have few beneficial, and many adverse, consequences, including: limit- ing the already excellent cold water fishery for rainbow and brown trout below Navajo Reservoir; some deposition of silt and sand bars downstream which will reduce the stability of bottom habitats, including fish spawning and nesting sites; warming of waters and reduction of total amount of aquatic habitat in areas of depleted for example, Stark, N. Distillation—Condensation of Water and Nutrient Movement in a Desert Ecosystem, US/IBP Desert Biome Research Memo 73-44, 1973; Charley, J.L. "The Role of Shrubs in Nutrient Cycling," in McKell, C.M. , J.P. Blaisdell, and J.R. Goodin , eds . Wildland Shrubs — Their Biology and Utili- zation, USDA Forest Service General Technical Report INT-1. Ogden , Utah: U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 1972; Garcia- Moya, E., and C.M. McKell. "Contribution of Shrubs to the Nitro gen Economy of a Desert-Wash Plant Community." Ecology, Vol. 51 (Winter 1970), pp. 81-87. 2Assuming high wet cooling for the scenario facilities oper ating at the expected load factor (Table 5-17) and including the water used for mine reclamation (Table 5-18) . 3U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Farmington, New Mexico. Personal Communication, January 1977. 370 ------- flow (effects of flow reduction will be much more significant than increase in dissolved solids); and reduction in marsh vege- tation within the floodplain, reducing waterfowl nesting habitat. About 209 cfs will be annually returned to the San Juan River above Shiprock at Chaco Wash from seasonal irrigation run- off and artificial aquifers created by the NIIP. This return will contain high TDS concentrations and quantities of pesticides and fertilizers. Though base flows at Navajo Dam should maintain flow at Shiprock, the dilution of this irrigation return could become critical to water quality at and below Shiprock during periods of low flow.l The ability of the river to dilute the concentrated irrigation runoff could be enhanced by almost 20 percent through the use of once-through cooling processes at the energy facilities.2 Wastewater impounded at the four plant sites could attract desert animals and waterfowl. The impact of these wastewaters on wildlife is dependent on accessibility and their composition. The wastes of the coal conversion plants are of particular interest because they may contain various organic compounds known or sus- pected to be carcinogenic (see Chapter 10). Evaporation ponds are likely to contain high concentrations of chemicals and be un- palatable and odoriferous. In addition, sublethal or chronic ef- fects would probably not affect a sufficient number of animals to be significant on a regional scale. As reported previously in the air impact analysis, ground level SO2 and N02 concentrations from the proposed facilities will generally be at least an order of magnitude below the federal standards even under the worst conditions. However, New Mexico's ambient air standard for 24-hour N02 will be violated by the power plant facility. The Synthoil facility will violate New Mexico's ambient HC air standard by more than 130 times. Concentrations of S02 and NO2 over most croplands will be much lower than in the facility vicinity, on the order of 10 yg/m3 or less. At this level, SO2 has not been found to produce either acute or chronic damage to the type of crops to be grown in the irrigation project. The effects of air-dispersed trace elements, including large :Low flow of record at Shiprock since the construction of Navajo Dam is 68 cfs (present management attempts to assure 400 cfs) . 2About 75 percent of the total water required for energy pro- duction is lost to evaporation in forced-draft cooling towers. If once-through cooling is employed, this water can be returned to the San Juan above Chaco Wash and Shiprock. The increased dilution of 20 percent reflects changes in volume and disregards losses from the river due to evaporation or seepage; it similarly does not reflect periods of increased rainfall or other seasonal variation. 371 ------- amounts of fluorine, cadmium, arsenic, and mercury, cannot be predicted. However, under similar circumstances, concentrations of these elements (with the exception of fluorine) were not pre- dicted to reach toxic concentrations in terrestrial environments.1 Fluoride concentrations, with all facilities on-line, may approach cumulative damage levels in sensitive plants of 1 part per billion over extended periods of time, depending on the stack gas scrub- bing method.2 Other potential impacts on the biological portion of mineral cycling arise from S02 emissions. A considerable amount of sul- fur will be emitted into the air and may eventually be deposited on land. The impact of this additional sulfur is not known, but it may be expected to accumulate in the ecosystem, eventually reacting with biological components and beginning to cycle within the systems.3 However, given the anticipated level of scenario development, it is unlikely that sufficient sulfate will enter the soil to induce an overall acidification problem, especially since many soils are slightly alkaline. D. After 2000 A total of 71,900 acres, which is 2.0 percent of the acres in San Juan County, will have been disturbed by the facilities during their 30-year lifetime (Table 5-42) and an additional 8,700 acres by the urban population (Table 5-43). This total acreage of 80,600 would support 178 cows with calves and 315 sheep (according to BIA recommended stocking rate, which is one-third of the actual 1975 stocking rate), which is 0.7 percent of such livestock in San Juan County in 1974 (Table 5-44). Attempts by ranchers to compensate for these forage losses by moving sheep or cows to other, unmined lands will probably be unsuccessful. Over- grazing on Navajo lands is already heavy, and increased grazing pressure on remaining rangelands may decrease forage production to the point where livestock carrying capacities are significantly lower than they were prior to energy development. ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Final Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Kaiparowits Pro- ject,6 vols.Salt Lake City,Utah:Bureau of Land Management, 1976, pp. 111-60 to 111-64. 2Ibid., p. 111-65. 3See Tiedeman, A.R., and J.O. Klemmedson. "Nutrient Avail- ability in Desert Grassland Soils Under Mesquite (Prosopis juli- flora) Trees and Adjacent Open Areas." Soil Science Society of America Proceedings, Vol. 37 (January-February 1973), pp. 107-11; and Tucker, T.C., and R.L. Websterman. Gaseous Losses of Nitro- gen from Soil of Semi-Arid Regions, US/IBP Desert Biome Research Memo 73-37, 1973. 372 ------- The major cumulative habitat losses of the Navajo Scenario will take place in an area of desert bounded by the San Juan River, New Mexico Highway 44, and the Chaco Wash. Environmental factors which will limit the reestablishment of vegetation are: limited rainfall and high evaporation, erodibility and salinity of much of the overburden material, general absence of good topsoil, and uncontrolled grazing by large livestock populations on the Navajo Reservation. Overgrazing by Navajo livestock is a critical factor. Re- seeding efforts at Black Mesa on the Navajo Reservation have failed several times, largely because livestock destroyed the early growth.1 Alternative techniques, such as planting seedlings, may substantially increase the success of revegetation, but at present no formal plans have been developed to initiate a seedling program. Current practices at two 'surface mines in the Four Cor- ners area involve application of up to 12 inches of water for a period of 2 years in an effort to reestablish growth of both na- tive and nonnative species. Invasion of nonpalatable species (Russian thistle) has occurred, and some species common to wetter locations have been established, but successful long-term mainte- nance of these species does not appear likely. Data for a period of longer than two years are not available. Impacts after 2000 associated with population increases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes are ex- pected to be similar to those prior to 2000. 5.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts Four factors associated with construction and operation of the scenario facilities can significantly affect the ecological impacts of energy development: land use, population increases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes. Land use by urban population and energy facilities during their 30-year lifetime will be 80,600 acres, which is 2.3 percent of the land in San Juan County. Land use by a nonenergy development, the NIIP, which will use 96,630 acres between 1976 and 1986, will also cause ecological impacts. By 2000, the urban population in San Juan County will increase to 146,300, a 134 percent increase over the 1975 population. Water use by the year 2000 will be 226,000 acre-ft/yr for the NIIP, 66,400 acre-ft/yr for the energy lrrhames, J.L., and T.R. Verma. "Coal Mine Reclamation in the Black Mesa and the Four Corners Areas of Northeastern Arizona," in Wali, M.K., ed. Practices and Problems of Land Reclamation in Western North America. Grand Forks, N. Dak.: University of North Dakota Press, 1975. 373 ------- facilities, and 15,350 acre-ft/yr for the increased population. These water requirements will be met with water from the Navajo Reservoir which has a limited water supply. By 2000, the Navajo Reservoir, which is currently drawn down about 45 feet per year, will be drawn down 95 feet per year to meet the total water re- quirements. Effluents from the energy facilities will be ponded to prevent contamination of surface water and groundwater. In- creased effluents from the urban population will require updated sewage treatment facilities to prevent water pollution. Although ecological impacts will begin with the first year of the scenario, noticeable regional effects will probably not become evident until after 1985. The most important of these impacts--judged on the basis of geographic extent, potential for altering the size and/or stability of populations of important species, or likelihood of resulting in a change in the structure or function of a large portion of an ecosystem—are summarized below. Their expected cumulative impact on selected animals is presented in Table 5-45. Major ecological impacts are ranked into classes in Table 5-46. These classes are based on the extent of habitat and num- ber of species affected by a given action. Class A impacts such as habitat removal or fragmentation, the replacement of the desert ecosystem by cultivated croplands, and little or no revegetation on mined areas, affect several species over a wide area and are considered the most severe. Class B impacts locally affect fewer species and include illegal shooting and poaching as well as the potential loss of small herds of antelope. Impacts that are likely to affect the fewest animals and are extremely localized (such as the consumption of impounded wastewaters) are ranked as Class C. Assuming that climatic factors, poor soils, and overgrazing will combine to preclude effective reclamation of strip mines, the combined effect of habitat loss from energy developments will be to cause an overall decline in the water- or food-limited desert fauna and to replace it by a cover-limited fauna typical of farm- lands. Total animal abundance will probably increase due to the impact of the irrigation project, in spite of the opposite trend associated with energy development. Two groups of species will serve as barometers or indicators of this change. Species adapted to the desert (which are ex- pected to decline because of habitat loss) include Gunnison's prairie dog, Ord's kangaroo rat, the silky pocket mouse, and white- throated wood rat. Decline in these, particularly the prairie dog, will affect other species adapted to living among and preying on them. For example, the western burrowing owl, ferruginous hawk, and badger may be expected to exhibit sharp declines. In addition to a decrease in predators, fragmentation of open areas will con- tribute to the decline of gray and kit foxes. The NIIP will pro- vide a food base for increased numbers of other rodents and birds, some of which may become pests (such as the pocket gopher, which 374 ------- Q W B W w o CO H o s w CO U EH O CO EH ^ ° § H rtj PH W O ffi & EH CM « O O CH EH w co < w U H u w « o eu fa CO m i in S o 1 B C 4J Q,0 "* f r b C — 0> •« — ** ft " c n b it • 4-1 b 1C -i C U 5 S • (C Ci D D-C C &.-< «H V B * 0 W cut _c ft £ g - C C U 0 •O «-i B c -wo* » -D 0) £. 0 8 p n- 5 c u £ a. o E -H 01 - c w o u ,,? « _ ° k ^ ° •~ c > c 1C •« -^ U b £ b t C e -H B OI-H 0> b. C C 0 O U tM rM ^ < 0 » -H ? a b I 8 tM 1 ! £ 3 I n b C 01 (T O K 5- • 0' .2 * £ C i. C 1C - £ n ft E > b 0 «•- ~- 1C » decline t bu t \ on aw ie. "B * to II! •M ffl b C C 4) C ? •D 4-> D1 0) • 3s li i j: D O j "3 JC exti rpa Probabl Farming e c s •D ! c •^ s 01 o. 0 0) +J c «. o 0 c • £ £ b "H a,— li E T; 0 C U 1C Numbers hunting 01 — ( •a -o^ » IM 0 . 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M M z 377 ------- may increase where root crops [such as sugar beets] are grown). Gophers, mice, and moles are now found in the area and are expected to become common as the expansion of agriculture proceeds. Some of these rodent populations could become reservoirs for plague. Swallows and various small farmland sparrows will also increase; although the horned lark will still be a common resident, it will no longer be the dominant species. Coincident with this increase in smaller wildlife, there.will probably be an expansion of the population of several predators or omnivores adapted to farmland situations. Many of the hawks already breeding in the area could increase in numbers as a result of the increased prey base in the irrigated lands, provided that adequate nesting sites are present. These include the marsh hawk, kestrel, redtail, and roughleg. Red fox and striped skunk will probably also increase. Toxic substances discharged into on-site holding ponds cannot be ruled out as hazards to some wildlife, but the possibility of their constituting a threat on a region-wide scale appears to be small. The ecological impact of pesticide and fertilizer use by the NIIP cannot be predicted. Withdrawals from the San Juan River for irrigation and energy use will reduce flow to minimum requirements during dry periods. This reduction will lower both abundance and diversity in the aquatic ecosystem. Floodplain marshes, important to waterfowl, may be reduced in extent. The most widespread of the scenario's impacts, with the greatest potential for reducing the abundance and diversity of native plant and animal life, are those arising from the growth of San Juan County's population from 62,400 to 146,300 over the study period. These impacts include fragmentation of riparian foothill habitat by residential and commercial development, which will place additional stress on deer, waterfowl, and other water- related avifauna. In particular, antelope near Farmington are expected to be lost or decline to a few individuals. Vandalism will tend to reduce diversity and abundance of birds of prey near town and within the area of the energy developments. In additon, domestic and wild dogs may become a significant stress on both small and large animals adjacent to the San Juan Valley. A major impact of increased population will be to increase erosion losses and thus reduce vegetative cover. Several endangered species may be affected by energy develop- ment. The Black-footed ferret is known to exist near the scenario area but not within it. If present, they will probably be elimi- nated. Three of seven active peregrine falcon nests in the Rockies are located near Durango close to an area receiving increasing use by campers and recreationists. The reason for their continued decline is uncertain; if they are disturbed by hikers, they may 378 ------- desert these nesting sites. At least one bald eagle nest is known in the San Juan Valley above the Navajo Reservoir; heavier recreational use of this area could result in its abandonment. The Colorado squawfish and the humpback sucker (recently removed from "threatened" status) have been reported from the San Juan River. If present below Shiprock, they could be eliminated lo- cally by flow depletion. Several of the significant impacts described above can be modified by changes in technologies. If mined areas are planted with native seedlings following a complete replacement of topsoils, reclamation will have a better chance to succeed, although long- term stability is still an issue. In addition, salt deposition from cooling tower drift would be eliminated by the use of a cool- ing lake (although such a lake would almost be as large as the area affected by cooling tower drift), by the use of dry cooling towers, or by once-through cooling processes. A decrease in water consumption would benefit the riparian habitats along the San Juan River. In addition, controls over access to remote habitats, es- pecially by vehicle, would minimize the adverse effects to the ecosystem from the enlarged population. However, such restrictions on use would substantially reduce the aesthetic and recreational values of the ecosystem. 5.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT NAVAJO/FARMINGTON Major benefits resulting from the hypothetical developments in the Navajo/Farmington scenario will be the production of 500 million cubic feet of gas and 100,000 barrels of oil daily, 3,000 megawatts of electric power generating capacity, and annual pro- duction of 1,000 metric tons of yellowcake. These benefits accrue primarily to people outside the area, but locally substantial in- creases in per capita income, trade, and other economic develop- ment could take place, principally to the Navajo Nation. Social, economic, and political impacts associated with en- ergy development in the Navajo/Farmington area tend to be a func- tion of the labor and capital intensity of facilities and, when multiple facilities are involved, of scheduling their construction. These factors determine the pace and extent of migration of people to the scenario area as well as the financial and managerial capa- bility of local governments to provide services and facilities for the increased population. Labor forces increase the population directly and indirectly. More labor is required for construction of the facilities than for operation; thus suitable scheduling of facility construction can minimize population instability. Of the scenario facilities considered, the gasification-mine combina- tions are the least labor-intensive and the Synthoil facility is the most. Revenue for the local, state, and federal governments is generated mainly by sales taxes, royalty payments on fed- erally owned coal, and an energy conversion tax levied on the energy produced. The fact that Farmington is a relatively large 379 ------- community now with extant planning capacity will mitigate negative social, economic, and political impacts. Farmington has a greater capacity to handle growth than do smaller communities. All com- munities regardless of size will encounter difficulty in obtaining funds for increased public facilities and services. Solutions to problems concerning who receives the benefits of revenue from the conversion technologies and who provides services needed involves all levels of government and their ability to relate to each other. There are currently no funding assistance programs in New Mexico for small communities. If people who have migrated out of the area returned and were hired along with some local unemployed laborers (to meet the man- power requirements for energy facility construction and operation) , then political and cultural impacts caused by a population increase of strangers would not be as great. In the Farmington area, life- style and cultural differences, especially concerning Indians and non-Indians, will influence the way in which impacts from energy development are perceived. Air quality impacts associated with energy development are related primarily to quantities of pollutants emitted by the fa- cilities and to those associated with population increases. Of the coal facilities, the greatest concentrations of particulates, NOX, and SO2 are emitted by the power plant and the least, by the gasification plant, but the Synthoil plant emits higher HC con- centrations than the other plants. Uranium mine-mill emissions of criteria pollutants are negligible compared to coal plants. Diffuse population-related emissions would probably cause higher concentrations of particulates, NOX, and HC than those produced by the facilities. The sulfur content of Farmington coal is such that SO2 emis- sions from a power plant with no emission controls would violate NSPS and ambient air standards. With 80 percent sulfur removal, neither would be violated. Dispersion potential in the scenario area is good, and plumes from the hypothesized facilities are rarely expected to interact. Thus, the presence of several facil- ities is not expected to create significant violations of ambient air quality standards.1 Individually, only the Synthoil plant greatly exceeds standards due to the low-level fugitive HC emis- sions. In selected instances, the facilities exceed both Class I and Class II significant deterioration increments. The ambient air quality standards are currently exceeded for both particulates and HC at Farmington, and the new population and facilities can be expected to exacerbate this problem. In addition, the plumes of the plants will be visible from any part of the area and will Exceptions may occur during downslope wind conditions. New Mexico Environmental Improvement Agency Staff, Personal Communi- cation, November 23, 1976. 380 ------- typically reduce visibility about 10 percent, with much greater reduction under adverse meteorological conditions. Technological variables affecting impacts include improved emission controls or reduced plant size. Both these alternatives, if carried out at an adequate operational level, would reduce the number of potential standards violations. In addition, coal ben- eficiation steps that would remove inorganic sulfur would also reduce conflicts with sulfur standards. Water impacts associated with energy development in the Navajo-Farmington area are a function of the water required for and effluents produced by facilities and associated populations. Of the coal facilities, a power plant requires the most water, a Lurgi plant, the least. The uranium facility uses five times less water than the Lurgi plant and 21 times less than the power plant. Water demand for the population is significant but less than that for the facilities. Effluents from the various types of conversion plants are similar in amount but different in com- position. For example, effluents from coal gasification plants are primarily ash and from power plants are nearly equal 'amounts of ash and FGD sludge. Effluents from all facilities will be ponded to prevent contamination of surface water and groundwater. Site-specific factors that affect water impacts in the Farm- ington area are: the limited supply of water in the San Juan Basin; the generally poor quality surface and groundwater; and the high ash content and low moisture content of Farmington coal. More ash-containing effluents will be produced by plants in this scenario area than in other scenario areas, and more water is required by a Lurgi facility using Farmington coal than for Lurgi facilities located elsewhere in the West, where coal contains more moisture. If all the scenario energy facilities are built according to the hypothesized time schedule, conflicts over water use in the San Juan Basin will increase substantially, both among users in the basin and between users in the Farmington area and those presently using downstream flow. This use-would significantly affect the quality of the surface water (especially in such characteristics as TDS, temperature, and the ability of water to transport sediment) and other features of stream hydrology. Groundwater quality could also be affected by leaching chemicals from the settling ponds, and erosion of the pond dikes could affect surface waters. Dry or wet/dry cooling combinations significantly decrease water consumption especially for the power plant, but would both increase costs and decrease plant efficiency. Among other changes, this efficiency change would result in some expansion of mining, air emissions, and a slightly larger population. Changes in 381 ------- cooling methods could affect up to 13 percent of available water in the Basin. Other technological changes could be significant, including the use of treated sewage for plant cooling (as is done in some southwest areas). The use of combinations of cooling towers and evaporation ponds could also reduce some water use, especially during the winter. Ecological impacts associated with energy development in the area depend on land use, population increases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes. Land use by surface mining activities is greater than use by conversion facilities or than the amount of land required by expanded populations. However, mined lands can potentially be reclaimed, while land use by con- version facilities and populations is permanently lost. In the Farmington area, reclamation success is uncertain; the arid cli- mate and poor soils will make it difficult. Impacts associated with increased populations will be significant, if recreational activities on public lands are allowed to fragment habitat and disrupt wildlife. Use of the limited water supply will decrease aquatic habitat availability, but water pollution is not expected to have significant impact on aquatic communities. The exception is possible leakage of affluent ponds which contain heavy metals, trace elements, and carcinogenic compounds. In the Farmington area, air emissions and ambient air concentrations are not expec- ted to affect ecological communities. If all the facilities hypothesized are constructed, several significant ecological efxfects are likely to occur from the com- bined impacts of surface mining, land use, new population, and the use of water. Water withdrawal from the San Juan will adversely affect the aquatic and riparian ecosystems. The new population will fragment habitat, damage vegetation, and contribute to the erosion of soils, as well as stress wildlife populations through intentional or inadvertent harrassment. Thus, certain species are likely to be eliminated or significantly reduced on a local basis. The combined impact of mining and desert irrigation will favor an animal community in the desert portion of the scenario area which is more typical of farmlands or grasslands than of the original arid desert shrub ecosystem. Several of these impacts could be significantly modified by reclamation technologies or by extensive social controls. By us- ing seedling transplants, adequate water, and fertilization, rec- lamation might have a better short-term chance of success. How- ever, the costs of this practice would be significant and would divert water from other beneficial uses. Controls over human use of the area would require an extensive use of permits for recre- ational use and zoning. Provisions for habitat control in the river valley and habitat management programs on farmlands can also affect vegetation and animal abundance. 382 ------- CHAPTER 6 THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE RIFLE AREA 6.1 INTRODUCTION Energy development in the Rifle area is located in Rio Blanco and Garfield counties in northwestern Colorado (Figure 6-1). As shown in Figure 6-2, the hypothetical developments include crude oil, coal, and oil shale extraction, conversion, and transporta- tion. The TOSCO II (the Oil Shale Corporation) oil shale retort- ing facility is assumed to produce 50,000 barrels per day (bbl/day) with oil shale supplied by an underground mine. The modified in situ process (Occidental Oil Shale) oil shale facility is assumed to produce 57,000 bbl/day. Pipelines transport the upgraded oil from the TOSCO II and in situ facilities to refineries outside the region. In the modified in situ process, a portion of the shale is mined prior to establishing the in situ retort; that portion may simply be disposed of at the surface or retorted in a TOSCO II surface retort. A 3.4 million tons per year (MMtpy) room-and- pillar coal mine supplies a 1,000-megawatt electric (MWe) power plant that provides electricity to local users and the regional power grid via 500-kilovolt (kV) transmission lines. The 400-well field produces 50,000 bbl/day, which is transported via pipeline to refineries outside the region. These facilities will be con- structed between 1977 and 2000. The construction schedules for the scenario and selected technical details of these facilities are presented in Table 6-1.! this hypothetical development may be similar to some developments proposed by Moon Lake Electric Company, Midland Coal Company, Blue Mountain Coal, Gulf Oil, ShelL Oil, Superior Oil Shale, Paraho Oil Shale Demonstration, Consolidation Coal, W.R. Grace, Hanna Mining, Utah International, and others, it must be stressed that the development identified here is hypothetical. As with the others, this scenario was used to structure the assess- ment of a particular combination of technologies and existing conditions. 383 ------- o H OS w u H H W ffi EH O H EH < U O HVin 384 ------- ^ win /» "? rt / ,"> V J t ^ ^« •\ y^;^.,-. ^ "' "' '"^"»^ < >/ "> -' ^-f^"- ,^'s :^ c o _ C «» 3 1 ? I S o » g \| 1 »• s £ E 11 ,^ • i PI 1 ° 1 1 IT) O > QJ > C O u E i i I o H W u CO H W EH S H CO H EH H J H U CH >H W w p o 385 ------- TABLE 6-1: RESOURCES AND HYPOTHESIZED FACILITIES AT RIFLE Resource Coal* (billions or tons) Resources 3 Proved Reserves 4 Oil Shaleb (billions of barrels) Resources 117 Proved Reserves 53 Oil (billions of barrels) Resources': 10 Technologies Resource Production foil 1 uoai One underground roora-and- pillar mine utilizing continuous miners Oil Shale One underground room-and- pillar mine Oil 400 wells drilled at the rate of 100 per year Conversion 1,000-MWe power plant consist- ing of two 500-MWe turbine generators; 34% plant effi- ciency; 30% efficient limestone scrubbers; 99% efficient electro- static precipitator; and wet forced-draft cooling towers4 One 50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II oil shale facility with wet forced- draft cooling towers One modified in situ oil shale facility Transportation Coal Two conveyor belts from the mine to the plant Oil One 16-inch pipeline Oil Shale One conveyor belt Shale Oil One 20-inch pipeline Electricity One line (to regional power grid) One line (to local power grid) CHARACTERISTICS Coal Heat Contentd 11,220 Btu's/lb Moisture 13 % Volatile Matter 42 % Fixed Carbon 53 % Ash S % Sulfur 0.6 % FACILITY SIZE 3.4 MMtpy 26 MMtpy 12,500 bbl/day 12,500 bbl/day 12,500 bbl/day 12,500 bbl/day 500 MNe 500 MNe 50,000 bbl/day 57,000 bbl/day 50,000 bbl/day 26 MMtpy 107,000 bbl/day 500 lev 265 kV COMPLETION DATE 1980 1995 1982 1983 1984 1985 1979 1980 1985 1990 1980 1985 1985 1985 1980 1980 FACILITY SERVICED Power plant Oil shale retort Pipeline Pipeline Pipeline Pipeline Power plant Power plant Oil shale Power plant Oil well field Oil shale retort oil shale retort Power plant Power plant MWe » megawatt-electric kV - kilovolts Btu's/lb » British thermal units per pound MMtpy - million tons per year bbl/day • barrels per day a!974 Keystone Coal Industry Manual. New York, N.Y.: McGraw-Hill, 1974, p. 477. Proved reserves are calculated as 50 percent of the defined resources. ^National Petroleum Council, Committee on U.S. Energy Outlook. U.S. Energy Outlook. Washington, D.C.: National Petroleum Council, 1972, pp. 207-8. Proved reserves are calculated as 50 percent of the defined resources. National Petroleum Council, Committee on U.S. Energy Outlook, Oil and Gas Subcommittees, Oil and Gas Supply Task Groups. 'J.S. Energy Outlook: Oil and Gas Availability. Washington, D.C.. National Petroleum Council, 1973. Ctvrtnicek, T.E., S.J. Rusek, and C.W. Sandy. Evaluation of Low-Sulfur Western Coal Characteristics, Utilization, and Combustion Experience, EPA-650/2-75-046, Contract No. 53-02-1302. Dayton, Ohio: Monsanto Research Corporation, 1975. Due to format restrictions, this facility was defined as four 250-MNe units for the calculations of the social/economic impacts. 386 ------- In all four impact sections of this chapter (air, water, social and economic, and ecological), the factors that produce impacts are identified and discussed separately for each energy facility type. In the air and water sections, the impacts caused by those factors are discussed separately for each facility type and, in combination, for a scenario in which all facilities are constructed according to the scenario schedule. In the social and economic and ecological sections, only the combined impacts of the scenario are discussed. This distinction is made because social, economic, and ecological effects are, for the most part, higher order impacts. Consequently, facility-by-facility impact discussions would have been repetitive in nearly every respect. Land ownership in the area is predominantly federal, with state and private ownership clustered along streams in valleys. The area population has been increasing in the last decade, but unemployment is low. Employment is highest in the service indus- tries, but construction and agriculture are also major employers. The area enjoys some tourist trade as it is on a commonly used route to Aspen and Vail. The quality of life in the area is considered excellent by the residents, and a larger than normal fraction of the population is of retirement age. The terrain is rugged to mountainous, and climate varies with altitude. Annual precipitation is between 12 and 20 inches, and annual snowfall is between 60 and 100 inches. The climate is cool, with only 50 to 120 frost-free days per year. Due to the absence of pollution sources, air quality is good, although air stagnation occurs in the valleys. Biological communities in the Rifle area also vary with alti- tude. Valley floors near streambeds are primarily croplands but contain elder, oak, and willow trees, and a large variety of birds and small mammals. As the elevation increases, plant and animal species become more characteristic of mountain areas, moving from pinyon-juniper to fir and pine at high altitudes with deer and elk, as well as some black bear. Hunting for deer and elk is a major activity in the area. The White and Colorado Rivers and their tributaries are the principal surface water sources for the area, with numerous inter- mittent streams flowing into them. Water quality in the smaller streams is generally poor, primarily as a result of irrigation runoff. However, water quality is good in the major streams. Groundwater is located predominately in alluvial aquifers which are associated with the surface streams. Groundwater is also found in a bedrock aquifer associated with the Mahogany Zone, the richest source of oil shale. Additional site characteristics are shown in Table 6-2 and elaborated in greater detail as needed in the following sections. 387 ------- < w fa H w EH fa O cn u M EH cn W EH CJ a u Q H EH CJ W i-q W cn CN I -p c cu c 2 o j_i •H ^ C w 4J cu cu m o 0 0 » H rH 1 0 O «. ^ c 0 • H -p £> 0) rH w !>1 rH iH ro 3 G G ro cu cn .TO SH CD £> (0 CO CD c\ U C •H O CN 1 CN rH c o •rH •P ro •P •rH fV •H CJ 0) JH cu fa o ["• pr \| •O r"- ^ t II cn CO a 3 u a C 3 •H a a 'H X >i ro rH a •H ro j>i •O rH •H G ra ra T3 CD e G ro &11 ro rj ^ C rH ro 3 bb CU SH rj -P ra M cu ft e cu EH rH rH ro co MH c o C -H •H CO SH -P 0 C > 0 G 3 H tr 0 SH • MH CO <~! 0 4J SH G O O e e CO SH C 0 O -P •H C CO -H SH £ 0 > t3 C G H ro t>i •P •H rH •rH Q ro -P cn SH •rH ,sj] C O •H G CO •H rH 0 G ft O CO a -H e Q o u • C T3 0 C -P O ro SH G 1 cn SH ro ro -P 0 CO >i SH co •H >\| ro 0 rH 13 rH G ro ro > • CO J3 ra 0 jj ra rH ft G O SH 0 •P •P 0 CO G O -rH -P -H t5 C O o >1 0 rH •H 0 ro G > -rH ft SH ra i3 0 G G ro "5 « 0 SH rH -H rH IP, -H \|5 » SH T} 0 G ft ro -H c N ^3 X b ro o • » CO SH SH 0 O t3 O rH rH W 4H C o •H H-> ro -p 0 cn 0 j> • CO G O •H -P ro 0 rH 0 SH 0 cn •H ,G .p ro rt CJ •H a o c o CJ w TJ G ro rH ro •H CJ 0 cn 0 rH •H a 0 SH ro G1 CO j_i 0 x^ \^ p rH O O ^ [^ ro 0 -p >1 ro HJ > -H -H CO ft SH G -H CU 0 rG O CO "T3 SH C G 0 rH ro O C ro -H aSH 0 4J 0 -p ro t! ro -H 73 CU -P 3 G fa cn ft ro o rH CU .— ^ ^T l>~ O"i rH rH ra c c ro ro •p •H ft ro CJ i SH 0 ft O o o "3* "O a o u c H CU cn ro M CD > ro .p c 3 o u CU •H m SH ra o o u G ra rH cq o •rH 0) CD rH ro c cu > •H cn CO cu rH 3 cr> •H fa ------- 6.2 AIR IMPACTS1 6.2.1 Existing Conditions A. Background Pollutants Air quality in the Rifle area is currently affected by a num- ber of air emission sources, the most significant of which is the Mid-Continent Coal and Coke Company. Measurements of concentra- tions of criteria pollutants2 taken through late 1975 in the Rifle area indicate that no federal or Colorado ambient air standards are violated.3 Based on these measurements the annual average background levels for all six criteria pollutants chosen as inputs to the dispersion model are in micrograms per cubic meter; parti- culates, 12; sulfur dioxide (SC>2), 2; nitrogen oxides (NOX) , 5; hydrocarbons (HC), 130; carbon monoxide (CO), 1,000; and oxidants, 68. " B. Meteorological Conditions The worst dispersion conditions for the Rifle area are asso- ciated with stable air conditions, low wind speeds (less than 5-10 miles per hour), unchanging wind direction, and relatively low mix- ing depths.5 These conditions are likely to increase concentrations The federal standards referred to in this section are those promulgated prior to the revisions mandated by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685. 2Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air quality standards are in force: CO, HC, NOx, oxidants, particulates, and S02. The term "hydrocarbons" is generally used to refer to non- methane HC. 3Ashland Oil, Inc.; Shell Oil, Operator. Oil Shale Tract C-b Environmental and Exploration Program, Summary Reports 2, 3, 4 and 5. Denver, Colo.: C-b Oil Shale Project, Inc;, October 1975. 4These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's best professional judgment. They are used as the best estimates of the concentrations to be expected at any particular time. Measure- ments of HC and CO are not available in the rural areas. However, high-background HC levels have been measured at other rural loca- tions in the West and may occur here. Measurements of long-range visibility in the area are not available, but the average is esti- mated to be 60 miles. 5Mixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upward boundary of pollution dispersion. 389 ------- of pollutants from both ground-level and elevated sources.1 Since worst-case conditions differ at each facility location (largely due to the wide variety of terrain in the Rifle area) , predicted annual average pollutant levels will vary among locations even if pollutant sources are identical. Meteorological conditions in the area are generally unfavorable for pollution dispersion about 30 percent of the time. Hence, plume impaction2 and limited mixing of plumes caused by temperature inversions at the plume height can be expected to occur regularly. 3 Good dispersion conditions associated with moderate winds and large mixing depths are ex- pected to occur about 15 percent of the time. As is the case at most western sites, the potential for dis- persion of pollutants in the Rifle area varies considerably by sea- son and time of day. Fall and winter mornings are most frequently associated with poor dispersion, due largely to more persistent high-pressure areas with lower wind speeds and mixing depths. 6.2.2 Factors Producing Impacts The primary emission sources in the Rifle area are a power plant, oil shale processing and retorting facilities, supporting coal and oil shale mines, the oil well fields, and population in- creases. The focus of this section is on emissions of criteria pollutants from the facilities .** Table 6-3 lists the amounts of the five criteria pollutants emitted by each of the facilities. Oil well field emissions are negligible in comparison to the power plant and oil shale facility emissions. For all conversion pro- cesses, most emissions come from the plants, rather than the mines, since all mines are underground. Most underground coal and oil shale mine-related pollution originates from diesel engine combus- tion products, primarily NOX , HC, and particulates . Although the mines are underground and dust suppression techniques are hypoth- esized in the scenario, some additional particulates will come Ground-level sources include towns and strip mines that emit pollutants close to ground level. Elevated sources are stack emissions. 2 Plume impaction occurs when stack plumes impinge on elevated terrain because of limited atmospheric mixing and stable air con- ditions. 3National Climatic Center. Wind Dispersion by Pasquill Sta- bility Class, Star Program for Selected U.S. Cities. Asheville, N.C.: National Climatic Center, 1975. impacts associated with population increases are dis- cussed below (Section 6.2.3) as they relate to the scenario, which includes all facilities constructed according to the hypoth- esized schedule. 390 ------- CO w H EH S O O X! « fa S-i CU CO Oi 2 O co H T3 CO G co 3 H 0 g 0, w — 00 I w J cq < EH o o u ffi x O 2 IN o CO CO w EH rJ ^ H EH PS ft CO w H EH H M1 H U fa •* ^ji 2 ••* CN oo p rH 0) m r~. 1 2 "• CTi 2 v rH O t-~ f^. (J^ 00 c cu 0 C •H -H -P g tO S-I rH CD (0 G O 0) -> U — O CU >i J3 T3 Oi rH g C -P rd 3 g O o O g •HO SH S-i o Cn^ -P - S-i • O rH CU 00 CU -~^ T3 •—• rH G W D O 0 00 00 o CN T o in h rH 0 0 0 i CO td 13 rH -P \ -H G rH O un oo 00 p CTl • rH rH O O CTi OO CN 00 rH rH ^ r oo r- ^. Ln ^D oo r~ CN • in r- •* CN r^ -1 rH 3 oo r^ r~ ^ 2 rH 00 rH CN Ttf CN ^ f»1 r^ ^i 3 00 • OO CN O en tn C C •H -H CO CO CO CO CU 0) U O 0 0 S-i S-l ft ft cu cu rH rH rd rd X! X3 CO CO -p rH rH SH •H -H O o — o -P - >1 CU K 31 rd d K r -P m -P 1 •H \ -r-\ Q) -• CO rH CO O r- ^3 -P •H CO G H r£j CU •H -4-1 ^-v x, -H >i 3 T3 rd 3 O T) v. g \ H rH rd X) <~ X! rd X! CU X! i — i x} rO t^i ft C O, o d -P no O g HO S-I g - Cn O O S-l >~D U m cu CN CO — ' T3 — 0 C EH D G X) G 4H £ H H\|S-I 3 X5 XI -p o do co co o 'OO T3COO S-ICO rHO CUO CU 0 OCUrHO •H ^ -H XJ 4-1 r-- 4-1 -P r- - 4-1 O (U - O S 0 •H in -H -H m cu- SH uo 'O — ^ I? "- O O g g -- C ft rH ^ •H -M g 0 S-I tO cu 0) T3 04 S-l CO CD G Cu O -P CO rH G CU O 0) S-i •H iH S-i rH X! rd rH -H C X! •H Cn S g -H 0 II rH C CU G rd t>i G d T3 O. \ •P II II rH g Q g 2 P X! U -H r-l CU 0) CU -P T3 T3 Tj O •H -H -H Q) X X CO X rH O 0 G O CU •H O G 1 T) G X! O -P CU SH g -P S-i Cr> rd rd d O U C £ 4-1 S-i O O rd rH -P SH X) tr> d -H T3 S-l 0) co G >i (0 £ X! 0 II II 1! II II (NX CU O O U O § CO 2 K U g t NO removal by the scrubber X G CU U SH CU a. o 'tf T3 c tO o tJ1 G •H E rj3 CO CO (0 c o •H CO CO •H E CD CO -p C 0) CO cu S-l a. cu SH CU tn G tO PS ca • CO G O •H CO CO -H E Q) CO O -H C rd fji S-t O rH tO -P O -p J-J o 4-1 CO •H CU rj rH (0 £> CO -H X! EH 391 ------- from blasting, coal piles, oil shale crushing, and blowing dust.1 The power plant emits more S02 than the oil shale facilities, but the TOSCO II facility emits more particulates than the power plant or the in situ oil shale process. Overall, the iri situ facility without the surface retort emits the least amount of criteria pollutants (Table 6-3). The hypothetical power plant, for which data in Table 6-3 were calculated, has two 500-MWe boilers each with its own stack.2 The plant is equipped with an electrostatic precipitator (ESP) which removes 99 percent of the particulates and a scrubber which removes 80 percent of the S02 and from 0 to 40 percent of the NOX.3 For a power plant operating under these conditions, Table 6-4 lists the amounts of particulates, SOa and NOX expected to be emitted per million Btu of coal burned and compares the amounts to the New Source Performance Standards (NSPS).4 The amounts of particulates and S02 emitted are well below these standards. In order to just meet NSPS, the power plant would require 97.3 percent particulate removal, but no SOa removal.5 If no N0x is removed, NSPS will be exceeded. A minimum of 15 percent NO must be removed to meet NSPS. In addition to emissions from the stacks, one 75,000-barrel oil storage tank at the plant, with standard floating roof con- struction, will emit up to 0.7 pound of HC per hour. Both the power plant and the TOSCO II oil shale conversion facility are cooled by wet forced-draft cooling towers. Each cell in the tower circulates water at a rate of 15,330 gallons xThe effectiveness of current dust suppression practices is un- certain. Research is being conducted by the Environmental Protec- tion Agency. The problem is discussed qualitatively in Chapter 10. 2Stacks are 500 feet high, have an exit diameter of 23.6 feet, mass flow rates of 1.57 x 106 cubic feet per minute, an exit velo- city of 60 feet per second, and an exit temperature of 180°F. 3Exact amount of removal of N0x by scrubbers is uncertain. The maximum estimate is 40 percent; minimum is 0. ''NSPS limit the amount of a given pollutant a stationary source may emit; the limit is expressed relative to the amount of energy in the fuel burned. 5Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685, § 109, require both an emissions limitation and,a percentage reduction of SOz, particulates, and NOX. Revised standards have not yet been established by the Environmental Protection Agency. 392 ------- TABLE 6-4: COMPARISON OF EMISSIONS FROM POWER PLANT WITH NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS (pounds per million Btu) POWER PLANT Particulates S02a NOX EMISSION .19 ,48-.80b NSPS 0.1 1.2 0.7 NSPS = New Source Performance Standards Btu = British thermal unit S02 = sulfur dioxide N0x = nitrogen oxide aThe Colorado State standard for SO2 emissions is 0.4 pounds per million Btu. Data from White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming, Chapter 2. Range represents 0 and 40 percent removal by SO2 scrubbers. per minute (gpm) and emits 0.01 percent of its water as a mist.1 The circulating water has a total dissolved solids (TDS) content of 3,500 parts per million. This results in a salt emission rate of 21,500 pounds per year for each cell.2 6.2.3 Impacts This section describes air quality impacts which result from each type of conversion facility (a power plant and oil shale Efficiencies are Radian's estimates of current industrial practices. 2The power plant has 22 cells and the 50,000-bbl/day TOSCO II oil shale plant has 5. 393 ------- plants) taken separately1 and from a scenario which includes con- struction of all facilities according to the hypothesized scenario schedule.2 For the power plant the effect on air quality of hy- pothesized emission control, alternative emission control, alter- native stack heights, alternative plant sizes, and alternative plant locations are discussed. The focus is on concentrations of criteria pollutants (particulates, S02, NOX, HC, and CO). See Chapter 10 for a qualitative description of sulfates, other oxi- dants, fine particulates, long range visibility, plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, and cooling tower fogging and icing. In all cases, air quality impacts result primarily from the operation rather than the construction of these facilities. Con- struction impacts are limited to periodic increases in particulate concentrations due to windblown dust. These may cause periodic vi- olations of 24-hour National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for particulates. A. Power Plant Impacts Air quality impacts result primarily from the operation of the power plant and depend largely on the degree of emission con- trol imposed. Concentrations resulting from the hypothesized case where control equipment removes 80 percent of the SC-2 and 99 per- cent of particulates are discussed first, followed by a discussion of alternative emission controls, alternative stack heights, alter- native plant sizes, and alternative plant locations. (1) Hypothesized Emission Control Table 6-5 summarizes the concentrations of four pollutants predicted to be produced by this hypothesized power plant (1,000 MWe, 80 percent S02 removal, and 99 percent particulate removal). These pollutants (particulates, S02, nitrogen dioxide [N02], and HC) are regulated by federal and Colorado state ambient air qual- ity standards, which are also shown in Table 6-5. This informa- tion shows that the typical concentrations associated with the plant, when added to existing background levels, are below most federal and state ambient air standards. However, the peak con- centrations produced by the plant do violate Colorado's 24-hour and 3-hour SO2 standards. JAir quality impacts caused by the underground mines are ex- pected to be negligible in comparison with impacts caused by con- version facilities. 2Because air emissions from the oil well field are small in comparison to those from the power plant and oil shale facilities, the impacts of those emissions are not considered in this section. 394 ------- w H PH U in i W x CO Q tf H < Q § U to >H ^ S ^ OS H 1 EH Z ,_q Da < u M IX SH EH Q Z D O ft O u n 1 EH £ 5 EH O 3 H j tD t: ril (X <* •> < CA r"- o I-H r» i— 1 ro CN c^ •— 1 in in o IN in in rH (N O O 0 in o in o o o o r in in o o us r-H iH I— \| H o o o o o ^ in o o >D •H rO I— 1 rH i-H in o o in o o 1 — £> 00 \D O £> rN rO rH i-H ro CA i— 1 ^£> Q ro O •H 0> 0) •c 4J c rO O •rl ti \| -rl C tn •H 01 0) O -rl X c o O -rl 4J C ^ 0) 3 > UH 0) rH IH 3 &. tn II II Q N to O ft< CO IH 01 1 ? r^ o o a * XI o •H E 4-> 0) O 4-1 0> 1 i-H 4-1 01 IH 1 O 4-1 x: 4-1 10 3 MH ra o DI OJ 0) E 4J 10 o E 0 -H 0 4J - Ifl rH 0) rH 4-1 ro tn 0 0) •H J3 01 01 x; x: 0 Q, t Xt Xi o O) -P c. •P T3 01 E M O 0) UH -H to in c C O O o •H 4J 0) ro IH IH rO 4-> C ifl 0) rH O 0) c > O 01 0 rH rH i^J 01 C > 3 01 O I-H IH I tn c o 3 10 0 XI tn 01 tn •a ro o> ri -P 01 0 > •H ro T3 0) rH IH ro O. 3 C 0) C IH < ra 0) • CO 4-> 0) C Xi ro 0! CU , in rH 01 01 rH •o c 3 o tn 01 ^ 01 1 O ro 4J tn •H c e c rH 0) rO 0 -H -Q tn 4J IH X! 3 ro 3 MH in & ri I-H ro 0) rH 0) 3 4-i > O IH O rrj a n) 0) -P rH MH rfl 4J O fl O 4J M tn 3 rfl O Q. C in -O D< C 4J to •o x; oi x; E 0> 4J >H EH 01 C O 4-> tn c c to •H ro -ri • i>i to x; tn co 01 4J 01 4-> iu i— i in 4J M XI 0) C to O) (0 IH 0) TJ JC S 0 E ^ 4-1 O UH D, tO O i-H O T3 rH i— 1 i— 1 C to ro ro 01 rfl W C > 4J £ 0) O O) tn -H xi -ri Q 4J 4-1 4-1 >i 10 O) 4-1 tn 0) C O •H C M rl rH -rl rO ID 3 (0 Cn rO O 3 ro tn in a1 M 'c x: 01 Oi IH O K •H 10 T) tn >• ro C tn IH (0 - IH •P O -P rl 0) C UH in --H c 0) rO U •H tn D XI 'O to C E IH CX fl •• rfl ro 01 4-i T3 I-H in i-H C • rj 0) ro rfl VH 5 M 4-1 rfl >-i o> tn oi I-H o) •O >< 0) X! 0) rH > 4J UH 1-H IH -rl < 0) 4J E O QJ re O 4J rH IH • O) Oi PH IH >i O IH 01 rH C > UH 01 0 MH tn 01 > O IH IH -H C 0) 4J ro to C r O Xi rO U . (N IH 01 4J a 10 JS u . tn C •iH E O o Xi 4J 1-1 o h ^ o OJ ieJJ c 0 •rH 4J 0 O) o IH CX i-H ro 4-1 C e >i 0) 4-1 0) C IH a M O 10 10 0) ifl • IH TI o> ti I-H. £ IH O O fl 0 E -P O - 4-> OJ 0) TJ Tj 0) tn • H 0 •D ro 0 rH O u in 4J C 0) E 3 C 0 E T! C 10 tn ££ n a a r-H 10 C 0 •H 4J ro C rl O UH 4J a 01 0 X u M H >^ IH O tn 0) 4-1 ffl U tn - O T3 fl rl 0 I— 1 O u to 4J C >i 0) IH Xi O 4-1 tn 0) E 4J O ifl M U b. tJ >i 01 CP 4J ^ 10 0) c c tn w •H to 01 • tJ r-l ID 01 IH 4J 01 0* ^ •fc 01 01 i-H 4J MH -H •rl Xi K f MH E H O ^{ UH • H (0 M -P H ro Q >^ VH 0 • tn cj 0) O 4J CO 10 U MH O 0 -P 10 c tn o C -H •H 4J tn ro C IH ro 4-1 Xi C 0 01 0 M C O 0 M-f O C IH O 0) •rl X! to tj< •H -H > X! 0 IH $ a o r-l •C iH -P «J •rH S T3 f— 1 •H 01 H 3 > 0!~W 0 U tn M Oi 0) r fl » • UH 0) >0 -tO fO rH 0) rO tj • C 0) O D rO 3 X 0) C 0) XI -H Vi c 01 e IH • IH ifl XI rH H O rO O £ JS O 'D •H 4-1 4J X 0) IH I-H 0-P- (X fl 4J -rl -rl C = oi o xi x; o .0 XI C 5 S 4J 01 IH a, o> ^ 'O tH rfl •a c rO 4-> to to •H .c EH u 2 M to o -a tn IH o> ro -P "O ro c o ro 4-1 T) 10 0) 4J 0) ifl J3 C 4J tn •H - 10 H 0) H "O H c 0 • rl 4J o 0) 4J o SH IX rH fl 4-1 c 0) E c 0 IH •H £> C w - to • D •• • U • Q * C O 4-1 tn C •H Xi in fl S • 4J M 0 a 0) K to E 0) 10 r1 to 4J C 0) E a o i-H 01 ^ 0) a 0) o IH 3 o m 01 K >i tn M 0) c u •• 4J n o> S 4-1 Pi ro Xi U tn c rH E 0 0 Xi 4-1 IH 0 UH * >1 O c 0) tn < 4-1 to >H •H UH 01 EH • to IH 01 Q XI 3 IH 0 to >^ J3 c 01 tn O >H 4J •H C UH O ra 01 O H X o UH O rH « > 01 0) x; 4J 4-> 3 O XI ra in c o •H 4J E 3 to Ifl ro O 4J to 4J C 01 in 01 IH a 0) M 0) tn C ro IH to -rl X! EH •O • "0 01 > o E 0) >H a C o c CO 01 E 3 to to ro rl 0) XI E 3 C TD C 0 o 0) tn o> x: 4J •« 13 01 > 01 IH 4J C 0) O IH S. 0 ^ji to 01 E 3 to in ro IH 01 X) C . E « c\ I o 4J ro •0 01 IH 3 to a O! E to •H •a 10 TJ c « 4J to IH 3 0 Xi i ro 0> X! EH 11 395 ------- Table 6-5 also lists Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) standards, which are the allowable increments of pollutants that can be added to areas of relatively clean air (i.e., areas with air quality better than that allowed by ambient air stan- dards) . 1 Class I standards, intended to protect the cleanest areas such as national parks, are the most restrictive.2 Peak concentration from the power plant exceeds Class II increments for 3-hour and 24-hour SOz and Class I increments for 24-hour par- ticulates, annual, 24-hour, and 3-hour S02. Since the plant exceeds Class I increments, it would have to be located far enough from any Class I areas to allow emissions to be diluted by atmospheric mixing prior to reaching such areas. The distance required for this dilution (which varies by facility type, size, emission controls, and meteorological conditions) in effect establishes a "buffer zone" around Class I areas. Current Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations would require a minimum buffer zone of 13.6 miles between this hypothesized power plant and any Class I area's boundary.3 Although no proposed Class I areas are within 15 miles of the plant site, the White River National Forest is less than 10 miles to the east. If this forest were designated a Class I area, the power plant would prob- ably violate allowable increments (Figure 6-3). Maroon Bells- Snowmass National Wilderness Area and Mt. Zirkel National Wilder- ness Area have been designated Class I areas and are in the vicin- ity of the Rifle facility. In a worse-case situation, expected to occur about once a year, the power plant may reduce background visibility (presently about 60 miles) to between 9 and 27 miles, depending on the amount PSD standards apply only to particulates and S02 . 2The Environmental Protection Agency initially designated all PSD areas Class II and established a process requiring petitions and public hearings for redesignating areas Glass I or Class III. A Class II designation is for areas which have moderate, well- controlled energy or industrial development and permits less de- terioration than that allowed by federal secondary ambient stan- dards. Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685. 3Note that buffer zones around energy facilities will not be symmetric circles. This lack of symmetry is clearly illustrated by area windroses which show wind direction patterns and strengths for various areas and seasons. Hence, the direction of prevention of significant deterioration areas from energy facilities will be critical to the size of the buffer zone required. Note also that the term buffer zone is in disfavor. We use it because we believe it accurately describes the effect of PSD requirements. 396 ------- o w U H En H W EH H CO w H EH H U w H O CO EH U S H OS rn I D O H fa 397 ------- of SOa converted to particulates in the atmosphere.1 On the aver- age, visibility reductions are expected to be negligible. (2) Alternative Emission Controls The base case control for the Rifle power plant assumed an S02 scrubber efficiency of 80 percent and an ESP efficiency of 99 percent. The effect on ambient air concentrations of three addi- tional emission control alternatives is illustrated in Table 6-6. These alternatives include a 95 percent efficient 502 scrubber; a scrubber without an ESP; and an alternative in which neither a scrubber nor an ESP are utilized. An examination of Table 6-6 reveals violations of Class II PSD increments for 3-hour and 24-hour S02 emissions with the 80 percent efficient scrubber. Complete removal of the scrubber ag- gravates these violations and results in violations of the less stringent NAAQS for 3-hour and 24-hour S02 emissions. The use of 99 percent efficient ESP allows the plant to meet all applicable standards for total suspended particulates (TSP) emissions. Re- moval of the ESP results in violations of the NAAQS for 24-hour TSP emissions and Class II PSD increments for 24-hour and annual TSP. The utilization of a 95 percent efficient S02 scrubber with an ESP would violate the Colorado 3-hour S02 standard. (3) Alternative Stack Heights In order to examine the effects of alternative stack heights on air quality in the Rifle scenario, worst-case dispersion model- ing was carried out for a 300-foot stack (lowest stack height con- sistent with good engineering practice), a 500-foot stack (an aver- age or most frequently used height), and a 1000-foot stack (highest stack height). The results of this examination are shown in Table 6-7. Emissions from each stack are controlled by an 80 percent ef- ficient S02 scrubber and a 99 percent efficient ESP. The 500-foot stack case was given previously as part of the base case control. A comparison of predicted concentrations with applicable stan- dards shows no violations of NAAQS with a 300-foot stack. However, Class II PSD increments for 3-hour S02, 24-hour SO2, and 24-hour TSP are exceeded with this lowest stack height alternative. The base case control also violated Class II PSD increments for 3-hour and 24-hour SOa emissions. Colorado's 3-hour SOa standards are violated even with a 100-foot stack. 1 Short-term visibility impacts were investigated using a "box type" dispersion model. This particular model assumes that all emissions occurring during a specified time interval are uniformly mixed and confined in a box that is capped by a lid or stable layer aloft. A lid of 500 meters has been used through the analyses. SOa conversion rates of 10 percent and 1 percent per hour were modeled. 398 ------- W W EH EH Sft o fa W o o 2 ft H EH W P fTi CO H EH CO r< EH U CO ft O H EH >H O EH U H !-] 2 P H OCO CO PC; H H 53 O P^4 EH 2 0 U PH O EH £3 O ft EH 2 i (0 Q — — — — — H ^ SH T3 CO J >, ro C ft PQ SH T3 co 0000 ^ COSHCDCUCO ft O dj CO -P CO ft rrf — -^ CO CO i CD -P -P •rH 0) rH T3 (0 3 -P 0 G rO rH 0 •H -rl < <4H •H -P C G tn 0) -H •H CO n 'O g M-t Q) (S3 O SH 0) rH C TJ rO O •H C -H CO O -P G -H C O -P 0) O rO > 2 CD -P SH O II QJ C CO II II O < Q U < CO Z 2 ft >H co 0) 0) -p -p 0) rO g rH U U •H -H rQ -P 3 SH O (0 O SH rO -H 4-> CO -P CO 0) D O CO CD SH -H m -P SH tH 0 0) 0) Q) r-H SH 0) rO rO C -P X! O -P CO U 0) Q) x; -P u ft 4-1 O 3 CO rO T) EH SH m O O SH SH m D QJ o X! £ co -P X! O C U rH O O -H •H -P X! >i -P £ rH rO Q) -P SH H * x! -P X! HH en g ro UH -H (U -P O rH U 3 CO C X! T! O -H (D (0 U SH C -P SH t3 ft -P 3 C CO cO -P (0 EH CD CO * M SH -H ,X 3 co O O >H fO X! ^ 1) -P i CD Xi co ------- TABLE 6-7: AIR QUALITY IMPACTS RESULTING FROM ALTERNATIVE STACK HEIGHTS AT RIFLE POWER PLANT SELECTED STACK HEIGHTS (feet) 300 500 1,000 APPLICABLE STANDARDS NAAQS (primary) (secondary) State standards Class II PSD increments MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION (ug/m3) 3-HR. SO 2 861 530 204 1,300 100 512 24-HR. SO 2 298 155 30.8 365 50 91 24-HR. TSP 57 30 5.9 260 150 150 37 Ug/m = micrograms per cubic meter HR. = hour S02 = sulfur dioxide TSP = total suspended particulates NAAQS = National Ambient Air Quality Standards PSD = prevention of significant deterioration (4) Alternative Plant Sizes The results of an examination of the effects of alternative plant sizes on air quality in the Rifle scenario are given in Table 6-8. The hypothesized 1000 MWe power plant will violate Class II PSD increments for 3-hour and 24-hour S02 emissions. A reduction of the size of the power plant to 500 MWe would allow the unit to operate within applicable federal standards, but it would still violate the Colorado 3-hour S02 standard. (5) Alternative Plant Locations The complex terrain of the proposed Rifle power plant site aggravates violations of Class II PSD increments during periods of plume impaction on that terrain. Thus, the effect of reloca- ting the plant to a site where the terrain at and around the plant is flat was examined. Sites along the ridge separating the Piceance Creek and Roan Creek watersheds (west-southwest of the original site of the Rifle power plant near Meeker) have a low potential for impaction with elevated terrain. Table 6-9 shows the results of this examination. Relocation of the Rifle power plant (1000 MWe, 80 percent SO2 removal, 99 percent TSP removal) would allow the facility to operate well within all applicable standards. 400 ------- w > H EH W EH 1 a § H EH W rJ J D fa CO H W PS PS EH CO < EH U CO r< W CM N a M H CO >H EH EH S3 H H ^S S tl < rf 1 l^s ^ 2 ^ rf! O CO K EH W H pa S3 D S3 fa 0 ^_v cu FH a c^ ^_^ H D" ^ N H CO in o o o o r~~ rH ro VD in m ro CM H rH m • r~- m m I o rH r-~ in ^o I in cTi H ro in o I o o CM ^D ro I o 0 H CM in ro rH in •. rH 0 0 o o m o " i — ! rH CM O 0 in CO Q PH i rO Q .— S-l T3 CO >i fO C CM j-i •d to (0 C -P H g o tn H -H CJ co H Q) cu tn ex cii tn -p tn CU CO CU -P cu CO a a CO PM -p cu g U •H o o 1-1 -H (U M a-p U tn cu g rH to cu J-l I tn-P O -P ^ tO U S -H tO fi 01 cu II g en Q) -p tO o -H -p 1H tO cx cu cu T3 T3 •H C X QJ O QJ •H tn t> 3 tn MH to H -P 3 O tn -P <"> II II II CU o co ffi CO EH 401 ------- w H H ffi EH CJcfl 2 IS H H EH rf < K CJ Pi O W J EH S hH O fe « CM < O O 2 EH H EH X J W D J CO P-i W S « O U CO EH < >H EH EH 2 M . rH X cu rH 0^ -P £ to O H U CM CO Q PH i^3 Q 2 EH CO w P3 U H i_H CM PM to -P C4 0) 6 cu !H 0 to c •n -H x-» M >i tO Q ^ SH "d co >i tO C CM >H fd to 10 C -P H e o w H •H CJ CO rl CU CU to O CX to -P to i O tO C -P -H !H O -H -P O •H rH C -r) 4-> (0 CU r) to d > cu 12 O CU -P in cu II CXT3 CO II o <£ Q < CO 2 PM rH tO cu cu -p -p CU fO e rH ^ u o •H -H X! -P O tO Q. SH CU t! D-i CU CU TJ -d CO -H C e x cu to o a, M -rl CO CT1 d 0 O CO ti i_> U 3 rH •H >H m to 6 3 H -P O 3 O II X! to -P « II II II e ^\ • CM PM tPPi O CO 3-ffi CO EH CTi (0 > i 0) >H O co -P a cu o M cu • DJ U •rl O >H 00 -P o - cu -P rH cu cu CU I m io -P O -P o to m ^ (0 cu Cr> X3 cu e O -P O o T3 o IP to •> CO rH tO tO > tO O •H g CU •P SH •H CO CU EH U CU (0 O •P M CO CU 402 ------- (6) Summary of Power Plant Air Impacts During the construction phase of the Rifle power plant, the frequency of current violations of NAAQS particulate standards will probably increase. Once the 1000 MWe power plant is in operation (80 percent SO2 removal, 99 percent TSP removal, and 500-foot stack height), Class II PSD increments for 3-hour and 24-hour SO2 emissions will be violated. If the plant were equipped with a 95 percent efficient S02 scrubber, all applicable federal standards could be met. With an 80 percent efficient S02 scrubber. Class II PSD increments could also be met by utilization of a 1000-foot stack, reducing power plant capacity to 500 MWe, or relocating the plant site to a location with flat terrain. However, the only al- ternative which would not violate Colorado's 3-hour S02 standard is relocating the plant site to flat terrain. B. TOSCO II Shale Plant Impacts Table 6-10 shows typical and peak concentrations of criteria pollutants from the proposed TOSCO II oil shale plant. Predicted hydrocarbon concentrations exceed the federal primary and state am- bient air standards for HC. Class II PSD increments are exceeded for 24-hour TSP, and Class I PSD increments are exceeded for 3-hour and 24-hour S02. Colorado's 3-hour S02 standard is also violated by peak concentrations. The effects of alternative stack heights for a 50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II plant on ambient air concentrations are shown in Table 6-11. All stack height alternatives meet applicable federal stan- dards for S02 concentrations. Colorado's 3-hour S02 standards are violated by all but the 300 foot stack height. None of the three alternatives can meet the Class II PSD increments for 24-hour TSP emissions. In a worse-case situation, expected to occur infrequently, the TOSCO II facility may reduce background visibility (presently about 60 miles) to between 7 and 10 miles, depending on the amount of S02 converted to particulates in the atmosphere. <-- In Situ Oil Shale Processing With and Without Surface Retorting Impacts Tables 6-12 and 6-13 show typical and peak concentrations of criteria pollutants from the proposed in. situ oil shale processing facility (Table 6-12), and from the proposed in situ oil shale processing facility with a surface retort (Table 6-13). Concen- trations resulting from the processing facility by itself or with a surface retort violate no NAAQS or Class II PSD increments. Peak concentrations do violate the Class I PSD increment for 24- hour particulates. The processing facility with a retort also violates Class I PSD increments for 24-hour and 3-hour S02. 403 ------- H 5TANDARDSb UJ rt 0 H t4 :ONCENTRAr ^/ a CO z U /•n 9 3 ^ X CM H w to to 5 U M CO CO J o COLORADO JH 0 Q Z O U H CO s is M 0, GRAND VALLEY E- 2 < CM TYPICAL Q Z 0 a u u m J < Q «z N < or- o «— f CN i l (H m OJ CTi i— t \| 1 in mo r»i in in I I H (Nil T3 O T3 in o in o o o o ^ in mo o vo r-4 i-H i— 1 tH 00 110 0 0 \P IT) 1 1 O O ^D t-H fO fH rH •«. .H in o o in i o o r^ vo co ^o l o vo (N m iH »H o co O"i iH r^- vo ro in o oo o rn oo 2 • • " m CN n iH rs CN (N .. CD CN CN „ ^ CO vo ro in ^c in r-t o rH O rH rH (N (N in 1—t to (0 V4 IH 3IOO 1003 18 3 O3XI 3X10 3 O •H C 1 C 1 XI C XI IB O O U a. co z s oxide •H 01 T3 C O C ft QJ IH Cn IB o o IH O 4J l-l -rH O C »*i r^ II 1! O U Z SI C O •H JJ iB O •H >H CO 4J 01 tl 4J C 10 O -H tH •H C CP •H 01 CO 4H O O -H C 0 0 -H •H -O JJ C IH CO 3 > MH 0) i-H IH 3 a in II II Q N CO O CM co W M O CJ CO 0 EH >i IB •O M OJ a tn i-H 0) IH M 10 S) o 0 o o in rH (0 o •H 4-1 0) JJ O a >i 01 XI JJ E o UH tn C o •H JJ (0 JJ c CO 0 c o CJ rH CO > OJ f— 1 1 •a c 3 0 Cn •a QJ 4J O •H T3 OJ p. CO H 10 OJ in CO EH (0 estimate of short-term back- 4J tn CO A QJ «c 4-1 QJ A O 4J 13 di in OJ ,-j 0) c 0 o 0) >-l IB in rH OJ > CO rH t! C 3 O H Cn ^ 0 IB ja 0) Cn 10 4J > 10 i-H IB 3 C C < • 4J C 10 rH QJ ds designed to protect public her than the annual average are wable increments of pollutants orests. These data are from ment Systems Report. Washington • 01 rH OJ OJ i-l 'O c 3 O 0s- >H 10 T) C IB 4-1 01 >! 4-> -H (0 3 tr In •H 18 4J c CO -iH St E 18 rH (0 CO •o CO 0 4J 14 CO MH CO IH £ >1 IH * "B C 0 0 OJ 01 £ •a c 18 E >1 18 E •H j_j CM = ,0 JJ O in OJ E H 1 \ Cn c H Cn 18 OJ > 10 ^ o Ul T3 (0 •a e IB tn rH rH < . >i CO > •H 4J U 01 01 CO «. 4J ^ 10 UH OJ •O C 18 XI 4J rH IB 0) XI O >W rH rH i-H IB 18 e CO O XI -H 4J 4_) (8 CO C SH 18 01 10 in •O XI M U ifl 3 •d m C IB * 01 -H Q to c O. IB 41 rH • 0 18 >i CO rH >i CO > IH -H OJ 4J O. IB rH 01 CO U M C O IH O C to in XI IB 4J CO ^J CO 10 IH O 0 E -P •a T3 CO OJ •O T3 CD T3 0) IB O X 0) CO & CO C £t IB 0 -O 4-> JC 4J i-l 0 rS B $ a o rH CO > CO a CO o ^ 3 o 01 QJ K >• en ^1 QJ c U . 4J in CO S to XI 4-1 E o l-l CK >i ;_! 4) C U , fM ^ O JJ a 10 XI tj fc en c •H E 0 o JJ ^1 o h £>, U c OJ Cn c 0 -H 4J o CO -p O IH Cu rH IB 4J • C rH 10 JJ CO 4) E C O IH •H - > • c P K C - -H » > CO Vl • M D V Q) .. -P . •H U J3 • S Q O Z o 4J •o CO 4J r4 4J I> C O O 01 •H 01 QJ U IH 3 O 0) 4-1 C 18 rH a E O IH 4H CO •a -H X o c CO en o r4 4-1 •H c rH rH 10 4J Ifl XI JJ •o 41 01 en IB 01 •H 4J H O gory II by Colorado. OJ jj IB U T3 41 4J (8 C en •H in 01 Tl 0] 18 QJ ^ 10 C • H •o QJ T3 4) CO O X 4) 41 a 4J 0 c c IB O XI o •H XI s 01 4J e 4) E CO i4 o c •H CO i-H X) IB S o rH r-H O •O » E (8 Ci 1 (£> JJ IB •O 4) IH 3 in IB 41 E in • H •0 rl IB T3 C IB 4J 01 U X IH 3 O X! 1 f1 CO XI E-" 01 404 ------- H EH w EH hH EH < 2 5^ I ^ O CM 03 Cn H H 2 O H CJ EH CO I-H O CO K CO H EH 03 CJ H ffi EH O H H (-3 W < ffi CJ 03 r< H EH s H X ^ CM CO EH • 03 W 1 ^J1 (N CM O CO • P3 ffi 1 CN CM O CO • 03 HI 1 ro CO EH ffi a w tc « — U -P < 0) EH CU CO 4-1 1 — Q W EH CJ W J W CO in ro rH o o o r- oo co co IJD in m ro CN rH rH r-- CN m in i o rH ^ CN rH <O I in CTl ro CO CM ro 1 O O CN r- CN CTN i o o rH ro rH ro rH in >. rH 0 O O o o o i— 1 CM ro CO Q 03 Q 2 EH CO W « i rd Q ^-^ SH T3 co >i fd C CM SH T3 rd rd C -P H g O en H •H CJ c/3 SH a) a; en O CM en .p en S -P rH 2 CO U -p •rH H (C 3 O r< •H CD •H -P c rd U •H MH •H tn -H CO CO (0 G O •H rd O O •rH C -P O 03 H -P C C -P rd 0) SH rd -P > (U 2 CO 0) -P SH QJ CO a P CO CM >H co SH rd CM CD 0) en g rd SH Cn O SH U •H SH UH rd g 3 rH 4-1 O 3 O II £1 en 4-1 •H C X d) O CM •H en T3 3 en SH CM CM O en ffi CO EH 405 ------- ID H cn HI w ij CQ o W o ,-q ^D fT\| ^ H t^- Pn OH- PH I—I M fq J D H -P en u in i i o o vo I-H ro i— t iH «. i— I in o o in I o o p— ^ 00 \Q \| Q \Q fN ro i— I i— I o o o ro r- CN i— O i— 1 O O CN O ro T rr t-l CN T ro CN O CTi O rO 1 — <—\ O rH rH 0 r-l CN rH i-H TT 1 1 • • 1 1 00 1 r-l O 1 CTv r-l CN CN CN in 1 r-l 1 0) 4J — i i-H 3 I-I31H i-l M 3cOO cd 0 3 CO 3 U 13 r^ 3 _r] O 3 O •H c i c i x! c x: 4J C T C TT 1 C 1 rd O O U d. 10 Z K 0) •D •H X o •H 10 T3 C o C J"i 0) >H Cn co o o SH O 4J iH •H 'O C >i x: 1! n CN O U Z K c o •H 4-> 14H 0) rH rl 3 a. n n n tn o Cu in 10 E 0 4J to in c 0) o rH 01 J> (U Q 0> 0 3 O tn D f1 en Vi 0) c w • • 4J CQ O J2 fl) r; jj E 0 fj4 >, Cn o g w t rvj ^ 0) 4J a CO fi U . Cn c •H E O 0 tC 4J Vl o ^ o c o en ^ c o 'rl 4J u a> 4-1 o S-l pM H CO 4-1 ', c CO 4-1 0) 0) g e 0 Vl • rl fc £> • c J Ed C » •H . > w Vl • I-H 0 fl) •• 4J • •rl U S Q E - 0 C Vl 0 M-l 4-1 Cn 0) C Vl -H ro x: to cd co 4J S CO •o 01 4J 10 VI EH tt) n K . 0 T! CO W 0 I-l o u ^ XI M M ^ Vi o Cn 01 -P CO U •o 0) 4-1 CO c Cn •H 10 0) T) CO CO 0> CO c • H •a 0) rO CD CD 0 X a) 0) _o 4-1 O C c to o u •H r; S: 10 4J C 01 E 0) U c •rl 0 iH XI CO 3 0 i-H iH ,£ 406 ------- D EH H CO W H H W o &H H « pq < u o o ID o w in H O EH nr LJ fa J H co u 2 H K rf 2 M K Q. 0 U Z < 03 0 K EH Mr 5 Cu j t£ u M PH X EH Q Z D O « U u DO U S [j, DNI9VH3 > < en r- o rH IN i I rH fl IN m rH 1 1 in in o IN in m I I rH IN 1 1 J3 jO .0 in o moo o o <3- in in o o vo rH rH rH rH O O 1 1 O O O vo in i i o o vo rH n rH rH » rH in o o in i o o r** vo oo vo i o vo CM m ,H rH rH M ,_\| «J. 0, ,-, (M On O rH in O rH O VD m CO f* VO O rH IN o in r» PI oo PI m IN rH 1 oo I o in i vo 1 • I • • I PI IN vo r~ rH CM in IN CM in 1 rH 1 0) JJ IB M M rHrH3 rH3rH rH M -JISO IBO3 IB 3 O3J3 3X!0 3 0 •H C 1 C 1 £ C £ 4J C T C •»• 1 C 1 IB O O U Cu to Z 33 0) •o •H X o •H in rrj £ O c xi 0) IH Cn IB O O >H 0 •P M •H -a C >i JS ii ii O U Z X c 0 •H 4J IB ^i 0 Lj V w 4J C IB O •H K-l •H C cr> -H in V (H -O O-H X c o O -H •H T) JJ C M (D 3 ^ 't ) CU rH M 3 a in u li Q CS, tO O 6. tO i 0) -U in to 4J c a o rH 0) > s tu o 3 0 in (U a ;>, Cn ^1 (U c u • • 4J in 1 0) 4J E 0 b >1 Cn M CO C U » o •c IB 0 0 U j^ XI H M ^ O CP ID IN JJ IB >•< U 01 JJ "O a cu IB 4J C. IB U C Cn •• -H o> in c cu •H -a E 0 in t) 4-1 )H "H IB 0 IM C • H « ^-1 'W U (U • c -o rH IB 4J (U Q) OJ C71 QJ < 0 X C HI 0 -•H 0) • 4J XJ J 0 (1) JJ C 4J 0 •HO C > >J C SH C. IB H O rH - IB X! 0) 4J O 4J C -H •H (D r] CH g 5 S C 0 in EM JJ O-H C M > 0) LW c e W HJ Q) r-l M - O IB • C CO -H IB • -U D 0) IB rH T3 X{ IB Q) JJ 3 in M O Q) O rH Xi a rH EH 0) < ------- D. Scenario Impacts (1) To 1980 Construction of the hypothetical power plant begins in 1977, and the plant becomes operational in 1980. Several small towns, such as Rifle and Grand Valley, are expected to increase their pop- ulations as a result of the energy development in this scenario.1 By 1980, the population of Rifle should increase from 2,500 to 2,950, and Grand Valley should grow from 360 to 700. These in- creases will contribute to increases in pollution concentrations due solely to urban sources. Table 6-14 shows predicted concen- trations of five criteria pollutants for Rifle in 1980. Concen- trations are estimated at a point in the center of the town and at a point 3 miles from the center. When concentrations from urban sources are added to background levels, the federal HC standard is exceeded.2 No other federal or state standards are approached by the combination of background and urban sources by 1980. (2) To 1990 Both the TOSCO II and in situ oil shale facilities are hypo- thesized to be constructed by 1990 in the Rifle area. A 50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II oil shale plant with an underground oil shale mine will become operational in 1985 and the 57,000 bbl/day in situ facilities will become operational in 1990. If the wind blows directly from one plant to the other, plumes may interact. However, maximum concentrations of pollutants due to interactions of the plumes from the power plant and TOSCO II plant do not violate any applicable standards at a hypothetical separation distance of 5 miles. Concentrations which result from plume interaction are less than those produced by either plant under worst-case dispersion conditions. With the addition of the oil shale facilities, visibility is expected to decrease from the current average of 60 miles in the Rifle region to 58 miles by 1990. In a worst-case dispersion situation, expected to occur infrequently, short-term visibility may be reduced to between 7 and 10 miles. Rifle's predicted population increase to 6,150 and Grand Valley's increase to 3,900 will cause concentrations of urban pollutants to reach the levels shown in Table 6-14 at Rifle, and Table 6-15 at Grand Valley. The Federal HC standard, which will be exceeded by a factor greater than three, continues to be the only 1 Refer to Section 6.4.3. 2HC standards are violated regularly in most urban areas. 408 ------- O EH W g 0) -P (1) o •H rQ EH U S W W 1^1 r-l U P4 0) O Oi U W EH 6 3 H rH 0 CD i-l U o Ol Cf\ rH O 00 CTv rH Q Z £3 O 0H U o 03 r. H £^ £o ~j «2 3 M ii ^> < •O T) tJ ino inoo o o oo ^" m in o o ^£> o o rH rH rH rH O O v h O O rH ^T o o o o o o o ^o m o o «o o o i— 1 m rH rH O O .. fc ^ rH O O rH ^J1 ino oin o o oo f^v£J CO ^ O ^D OO (Nl m rH rH O O 0 0 rH ^ roco rvj^-o oo i— i OO ^D fo vc t^~ ^J1 r"- U~) O^ rH rH n fsj CT> rH 0^ ^O 3 C~NJ ^D O rH rH O rH rH rH \£> O -H OCO OrrO rH OO in Ol rH rH m koc^ rno\o 01 rsi ^)O rH O rH rH rH ID O k rH CN CN in O O rH rO rH rH rH - cn 0) 4-1 to to to rHrHS rngiH rH to to to 3tOO 10C3 to 3 33 U3XI 3XIO 3 O OO ••HCi e i xi c xi xix; 4J C TT C rr 1 01 C 1 II 10 O O U O Cu CO Z a U QJ •o •H in X C O o c XI 0 >H E tO 0 C 0 O to X] •8 in >i tO XI U II II 0 0 m u 0) T3 01 -H "O X •iH O X -H O t3 •ft fl C 0) 14 CJ1 3 O U-1 i-l rH 4-1 3 -H to c II II W CSI O O CO Z ground concentrations rom the center of town ^ UH O to to « 0) rH •H • E tn O> ro u IH C 3 4) o a Ul fO 4J C to in Xi 4-1 M C 3 0) E E 41 O iH to 3 UH in to 01 C E O •H 0) to to 4-J " c tn OJ 4-1 U C C -H 0 O o a rH rH 0) tO > 1-1 Oi 3 rH IX 1 = 'O c 3 • O in to 1 ty> v£ rrjj 01 0) rH •P X! o to •H EH T3 01 E to O UH QJ IH C to OJ Oi to W 4-> Oi XI 0) EH >H O (0 XI 3 a 0) XI 4J U 0) 4-1 O M a o •a 0) c tn •H tn 0) •a in T3 ^ to T3 C to 4J in >^ 4J •H rH to 3 tr ^ •H to 4-1 C 01 -H XI E to rH to to QJ T3 0) • UH >i rH OJ OJ IH > 10 -H 4J = O > OJ ^ QJ to 10 •a 4) C iH 0 0 - 0) W 10 to = to MH •O rH C Ol to 3 = TJ r1 C to to to E XI •H 4-> ^ rH a to = 0) OJ E tO m OJ J •P >^ to 4-1 to o 4J rrjj 0) E 3 tfl in to o> 1-1 to to 4J U tO e •iH ^ •iH r£ . O Ol 01 rH tj OJ 4J UH 10 tn 4J C to rH a- rH to c o •H 4J •H •O •o tO o z CJ y II by Colorado. Dat; opment Systems Report. 14 rH O 01 tn ^ OJ QJ 4J D to O OJ O "O ^l 0) 3 4-1 O tO CO c QJ tn« •H in >, OJ tn •a >H oj to c to u OJ iH 10 •• 4J c tn •H 0) s •a 0) OJ T3 XI OJ 4-1 0) CJ E X O 0) IH PK 0) X! >i DI •P M 0 Ol C C C W tN 14 QJ 4-> a to XI u * 0^ c •iH E O O si 4J IH 0 ^ >^ O C 01 ^ "^ c o H 4-1 O Q) 4J o X rH CO 4J C 0) E c 0 tO 14 O -H XI rH o to •H XI 4J 3 OJ c U .. • CO tn - • 4-1 • D C J 0) E C " QJ -H • iH > U O to • C H Q •H « •. (D Q) C rH 4J O X! -H 4J to XI CP 3 S C O -H rH E XI rH O 10 < to to •O UH S converted to NO2 . to •iH 10 QJ O to 3 O in C to X) to 3 g O )H UH C t^ O 4-1 •H C UH 0 in QJ ID •H X 0 UH O 4-1 C 01 o I-l QJ a o LTl 4J to XI 4-1 'O 01 E 3 in 10 to in •H J-J h-i OJ * E rfl Ol 1 4-1 to V 0) 3 in to Q) E to •iH T) tfl •a c to 4-1 to U K LJ 3 O 1 OJ f_4 IU 409 ------- Cfl W U o in r-l I vo CO Q OH rf D Z i^ EH CO o W Z o IH EH S EH Z U u § 8 g o J o u SH K •^ Q Z 0 u u en « rf E M K H O I D K EH Z H 0 Cw 2 5 0 g M Q Z O o u ffl 1 2 EH POLLUTA] BRACING ^ < o o o mo moo o o oo Trin mo o VD oo rH rH rH rH O O * * O O rH ^ O O O O O O O VD in O O VD O O rH fl rH rH O O . «. rH 00 H ^ ino om o o oo p^ \Q QO VD C3 VD O O (N rO rH rH O O 0 0 r-l V •Hr- rHOVD CM rH OO m (N ro o ^ r^ CO rH CO rH rH rHr- VDOVD r^ rH oo rHfO (Nro FH o ^r- rO rH O\ . h i-H rH (N CM in o o rH no rH O P_f in 41 4-1 rO IH IH i-HrH3 rH3H rH IH \|HM 3100 IOO3 10 3 33 o3xi 3x:o 3 o oo •H c i q i £ c si si si 41 G- e » i -a s i ii r^riJcN cvrtjojm CM!; ro com (8 O QUO a. to z K u 0> •o •H X o c c c o XI 10 o n o u in c 0 IH 10 o o IH •O x: n u 01 •0 •H X 0 •H "O c 0) 0 IH •H C II IM o z 0) •a -H X o -H T3 IH 3 MH rH 3 in II CM o W 1 C ai E o o C IH O MH O in -O 01 C rH 3-H 0 E M tj>frj V U C 10 4) m .* 10 4J • in in 01 4J u c M 0) 3 E o 01 in M 3 q in M 10 XI 0) IH E 3 01 E M 0 (0 MH t in in 4J c C 0-H 10 4J 10 C ^l U 3 0 K C e 0 O rH in 01 1 > vo 01 rH 0) 1 rH PQ Q C 10 3 EH O t7> O ^ •a MH 01 • •u c e O 01 S •H X. O •a 10 -u 01 4-1 IH MH a o) o IH 01 10 H M 01 10 in 4-i c c 01 0 01 in -H u 01 4-> x: m 01 H IH x; a 4-1 4J 4J o 01 4-1 o IH a 0 4-> •a 01 c rr, •H 10 0) •D 10 •a in 10 rrj C 10 4J in ^"1 4-1 •H rH 10 3 IH •H 10 4-1 C 0) • H (0 > •1-1 rH 4-1 10 U M 01 o) a •O in 0) 01 01 - IH 01 to M 10 I MH ^irH IH 01 10 3 T3 C -O 0 C O 10 0> rax: s 4J rH •a 10 C 0) rex: E 0 ^1H IH rH 10 XI E 3 •rl OH M IX 01 c £ £ -P 0 O 'D 2 10 H - 0 O CT> 4J rH 4J o e U 0) E ^i Cu XI 0 rH H 01 H > 01 ^i Q IH O 01 tfi u 01 IH 4J 3 10 O U W 01 •O « 0> 4J >i to Oi C M Cn d) •H C 10 U 0) •a [0 4J 18 a 01 01 H S (0 0) c x; •H 4J •0 E 01 O •0 IH 0) fa 01 0 >i x en 01 IH 01 01 C XI W c •^( 'O E 01 O -U U IH x: o) 4J > M C 0 0 MH 0 in >l -H o C in 01 01 en o 1^ rl 3 C O O in •H 4-> C O 10 ai xi 4J IH O 3 M ^ 0 rH IH 10 MH ^J C C 01 01 £ &i C 0 O M iH 4J •H -rl > C c 0 to W 4) •C S -H X 0 4J O • • MH C rH C 10 10 0 4-> 01 U 0 O -4^ c. 0) XI C 0 O - O IH •H • 4-> 01 .£ 1-5 P1 p, 3 C C -H 0 in -H js in 4-> > in C IH to 4-> 0) H S n) E X! 01 - -P IH 01 • O 4J 4-1 T3 C -H IH 01 •H £ O E !£ ci 3 oi 01 • in rH E ££ (N 10 XI O ie ifl IH tn IH ^ MH E 0) in 0 01 4J -H •H ID 4-1 a rH 4J in (0 4-1 rt! 10 ^i £ M o a w U -a 410 ------- ambient standard violated in Rifle by 1990. Concentrations over Grand Valley will violate federal and Colorado HC standards. Al- though the populations of Rifle and Grand Valley will grow some- what by the year 2000, the resultant pollution concentrations are expected to increase less than 5 percent over 1990 values. E. Other Air Impacts Additional categories of potential air impacts have been ex- amined; that is, an attempt has been made to identify sources of pollutants and how energy development may affect levels of these pollutants during the next 25 years. These include sulfates, oxi- dants, fine particulates, long-range visibility, plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, cooling tower fogging and icing, trace element emissions, and fugitive dust emissions.1 Although there are likely to be local impacts as a consequence of these pollutants, both the available data and knowledge about impact mechanisms are insufficient to allow quantitative, site-specific analyses. Thus, these are discussed in a more general, qualita- tive manner in Chapter 10. 6.2.4 Summary of Air Impacts A 1,000 MWe power plant, one 50,000 barrel per day TOSCO II oil shale plant with an underground mine, one 57,000 bbl/day in situ oil shale processing facility, and a 50,000 bbl/day oil field are projected for the Rifle area. To meet NSPS the power plant would require 97.3 percent particulate removal, no SO2 removal, and 15 percent NOX removal. However, with this level of control, the plant would violate federal ambient standards for 3-hour and 24-hour S02 as well as Colorado's 24-hour S02 standard. With 80 percent SOa and 99 percent particulate removal, peak concentrations from the plant do not violate federal ambient stan- dards, but 24-hour SO2 concentrations still exceed the Colorado 24- and 3-hour standards. With the control, the plant also exceeds Class II PSD increments for 3-hour and 24-hour S02. Class II in- crements can be met by increasing the SO2 scrubber efficiency to 95 percent, by increasing the stack height to 1,000 feet, by de- creasing plant capacity to 500 MWe, or by relocating the plant to flat terrain. Of these alternatives, only the relocation results in no violation of Colorado's 3-hour SOz standard. The 50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II plant exceeds the federal NAAQS for HC and the Class II PSD increments for 24-hour TSP, but the 1 Little analytical information is currently available on the source and formation of nitrates. See: Hazardous Materials Ad- visory Committee. Nitrogenous Compounds in the Environment, U.S., Environmental Protection Agency Report No. EPA-SAB-73-001. Wash- ington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973. 411 ------- Class II PSD increments can be met through an increase in the stack height; The i_n situ oil shale processing facilities (with or without a surface retort) do not violate any NAAQS or Class II PSD incre- ments . If all facilities are constructed according to the hypothe- sized schedule, population increases in Rifle and Grand Valley will add to and create pollution problems. By 1990, Colorado's annual S02 and federal and Colorado 3-hour HC standards will be violated. 6.3 WATER IMPACTS 6.3.1 Introduction Energy resource development facilities in the Rifle area are sited in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) . The major water sources will be the White and Colorado Rivers, but groundwater will also supply a significant part of the requirements (see Figure 6-4) . In the scenario area, annual precipitation varies between 11 and 20 inches per year depending on elevation, with annual snowfall varying between 60 and 100 inches.1 This section identifies the sources and uses of water re- quired for energy development, the residuals that will be pro- duced, and the water availability and quality impacts that are likely to result. 6.3.2 Existing Conditions A. Groundwater The Rifle area contains both bedrock and alluvial aquifers. Bedrock aquifers are in the combined Uintah and Green River For- mations and in the Mesa Verde Group. The Uintah and Green River aquifers are separated by the Mahogany Zone, the principal source of oil shale. Since leakage is common through the zone, the two aquifers behave as if they were parts of the same unit, although their water quality differs. The total volume of water stored in the Uintah and Green River aquifers has been estimated to be about 25 million acre-feet.2 The flow through the aquifers in the Piceance Creek drainage basin is estimated to be about 36 cubic moisture content of one inch of rain is equal to approx- imately fifteen inches of snow. 2 U.S., Department of the Interior. Final Environmental State- ment for the Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Program, 2 vols. Washing- ton, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973, Vol. I, p. 11-141. 412 ------- o H w u w 1-3 fa w ffi EH CO w H EH H i-q H U ------- feet per second (cfs) . 1 Most of the recharge takes place in out- crops of the aquifers, and groundwater flow is toward the center of the Piceance Basin. Discharge is mostly from springs and into alluvial aquifers. Wells penetrating both aquifers should yield as much as 1,000 gallons per minute (gpm) . The total dissolved solids (TDS) of water in the upper aquifer is generally less than 1,000 milligrams per liter (mg/£) , but the TDS of water in the lower aquifer is as high as 40,000 mg/£.2 Aquifers in the Mesa Verde Group are important to the sce- nario area because this group is the projected source of coal for the power plant. Very little information is available on ground water in the Mesa Verde Group. These aquifers, many of which are perched, occur in discontinuous beds of sandstone that are inter- spersed in the shales of the formation. Records3 indicate that wells in the Mesa Verde Group produce less than 50 gpm in the scenario region, but no data are available on water quality for the Mesa Verde aquifers. The alluvial aquifers associated with the Colorado and White Rivers are recharged by their respective rivers and, therefore, are highly reliable and productive sources of water. The hydrol- ogy is much the same for the Parachute and Piceance Creek aquifers; however, their productivity is relatively low, and current use is limited to providing water for livestock. Water quality in the two creek aquifers is relatively good with TDS of less than 1,000 mg/& in the upper reaches. Because of decreases in the quality of discharge from the bedrock aquifers, groundwater quality in the alluvium becomes progressively worse downstream, eventually reach- ing 3,000 mg/l TDS. B. Surface Water As shown in Figure 6-4, the White and Colorado Rivers are the major surface-water supply sources for energy development in the Rifle scenario. Flow allocations in both of these rivers are gov- erned by the Colorado River Compact,4 the Upper Colorado River John B., et al. Simulated Effects of_ Oil-Shale Devel opment on the Hydrology of Piceance Basin, Colorado, U.S.', Geolog- ical Survey Professional Paper 908. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1974, p. 40. 2 Ibid. , p. 40. 3Colorado Land Use Commission. Colorado Land Use Map Folio. Denver, Colo.: Colorado Land Use Commission, 1974. ''Colorado River Compact of 1922, 42 Stat. 171, 45 Stat. 1064, declared effective by Presidential Proclamation, 46 Stat. 3000 (1928) . 414 ------- Basin Compact,1 and the Mexican Treaty of 1944,2 as well as the laws of the State of Colorado. Colorado's share of the flow in the UCRB is determined with reference to the natural flow of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, Arizona. This flow has been esti- mated to be from 5.25 to 6.3 million acre-feet per year (acre- ft/yr); the most widely accepted estimate is that made by the Department of Interior at 5.8 million acre-ft/yr.3 Using that value, Colorado's share of the flow is about 3 million acre-ft/yr. Near Rifle, the Colorado River has an average flow of 2.8 million acre-ft/yr, and the White River averages 455,000 acre-ft/yr. How- ever, not all of the flow in the Colorado River near Rifle or in the White River is available for future energy development. Con- siderable uncertainty exists over how demands for increased water allocations for agricultural irrigation, municipal needs, instream needs, and other legal commitments and uses will be handled. Present uses of UCRB water in Colorado are shown in Table 6-16. The main use is for irrigation, but a significant portion is diverted to the San Juan River and to municipal use in the Denver area. Although about 745,000 acre-ft/yr from the Cplorado River system are estimated to be available for the State of Colo- rado to develop1 not all of this will be available for energy in the Rifle area. Water quality in the White and Colorado Rivers is shown in Table 6-17. Also shown are water quality data for Piceance and Parachute Creeks, both of which may be impacted by energy develop- ment. Water quality is generally good in the White and Colorado Rivers and in Parachute Creek, but TDS and hardness levels are high in Piceance Creek, primarily due to bicarbonates and sodium. 1Upper Colorado River Basin Compact of 1948, Pub. L. 81-37, 63 Stat. 31 (1949). 2Treaty between the United States of America and Mexico Re- specting Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, February 3, 1944, 59 Stat. 1219 (1945), Treaty Series No. 994. 3U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage- ment Team. Report on Water for Energy in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Denver, Colo.: Department of the Interior, 1974, p. 11. ''U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Westwide Study Report on Critical Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western States. Washington, D.C.: Government "Printing Office, 1975, p. 261. 415 ------- TABLE 6-16: WATER USE IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN PORTION OF THE STATE OF COLORADO (in thousands of acre-feet)a Estimated 1974 Water Use Estimated exports Irrigation Municipal and industrial including rural Minerals Thermal electric Recreation fish and wildlife Other Consumptive conveyance losses Reservoir evaporation Total depletions0 GREEN RIVER SUBBASIN 0 89 2 4 10 3 5 22 2 137 UPPER MAIN STEM SUBBASIN 614b 779 14 8 4 8 11 175 37 1,650 U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Westwide Study Report on Critical Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western State's"! Washington, D.C. : Government Printing Office, 1975, p. 260-261. Includes intersubbasin transfer to San Juan River and inter- basin transfer to the Denver, Colorado area. Q Includes Colorado's remaining share of mainstream reservoir evaporation 6.3.3 Factors Producing Impacts The water requirements of and effluents from energy facilities cause water impacts. These requirements and effluents are iden- tified in this section for each type of energy facility. Asso- ciated population increases also increase municipal water demand and sewage effluent; these are presented in Section 6.3.4 for the scenario which includes all facilities constructed according to the scenario schedule. 416 ------- EH H ts H U H W fe H Pi IS O rH PM H D a PC H r- rH I « < w ^ U >1 £ l_i •_! tS Q C^ O M £» w CM U Q ^ P^ ,5 Se Q z 3 a « S EH Q in X W .>, § « u H OH y W r^C 15 EH W ? U § i Q (J W rA g w u 2 r? W EH K U < rj § ^ PJ h4 U g H Cu "1 * ~^ ~3 tt, ^ s\|> PH§§ 3 S O CD U (TJ W J> M P5 tf tf W M M M E-t 2; w M S S 15 M o 60 60 • rH O O rH OJ QJ 0) oj o ro (NO vo r^- r- (NO r^ n rH VD VD >. «. vo o in ^ rd W 0) 0) » > > — M rH O O O ^ «tj -H rH rH rH >i 6 CM EM CM "\ 0) -P tP 0) 6 S QJ 4-4 (d M 3 3 tr> i C (d Fi - — • K -• » ^J -— • (U •H J3 -H 01 -H W l-( 01 V-) fdcrxm CM-t ojmu MtO «JO -HO >0(TJ D -" s— S ^ rf;^-^ 00 OrOTrVDrH'^J' O O rHOfNOlOrH rH rH OOOOOO OO CO V rH V • V CO J3 in m o o o o co co in m rH o l i oj CM m m in • • \D VD CO 00 m ^ ^* in oo rH co • •••••• \|vorooooorocr>rH rHI loo 1 oo rH o\ rH ^t rg oil rH rH rH t^- • rg eg ro ^i* ^p i — i cri rH oo rH^oo^l'in^j'rH omco 1^ rH VD «3* ro ^3* VD rH (N oo I^TfO'd'C'l^J'OlrH rj1 \| (00 1 vo rH CA rH ^ rg in I 1 rH rH rH •* fO ^r r~ in M> in in rH oooooocr^roin rHrrroco rH rH rH IO id o H rH W tn a) H 4J 1 rH TJ E id in o T3 a) 3 IDC •Hininm.pifl >E-ri •dOUinJQ WT3C4J Q^ -rl^^ Q}0^ 3^ r^1^ M^ (fl0^ Id0^ rHd)^^ C^ QJE C m\ O\ C\-H\ O\ « \ <4H \ MX. fl>\T)\ d-H D intrrHCn trcnTlCrrHtp otrtHCr-PCnJJrHCr Mtn MT) •HE n)E3 idE OS.CE-HE 3E-riE OoE nJE 3d) re Q— u— s— w— u— en— to— z— EHOI— aa— wtn a 4J •H rH id rH id c \. id >-i j^ -u JJ -H •a in -H in u oj id rH II II 03 V pi id •H T3 M C M 0) O 01 -P CJ CU '"H d) rH W -P a> M M 01 0) a> MH a ai to +J M E ------- c •H -P C O u 1 d o M 11 . -H Si in 4-1 73 M MH O O 0 0) 4-1 (K d B^ 4J • H M rH id id a 3 i) a a M - u * 4J cn id • S \|> d d < . M O id M 01 QJ O * >i d D id a g • OJ O id u 4-1 4-1 id M 73 T3 Id rH ft D rH id o rj E O M M O 73 It) U 4-1 4-1 id 3 Q a O D U 0 in 3 11 O Cn 01 id oi D \|> M id 0) .p •sg 4J tnr- H en 4) rH J3 o •H a; o H 4J d id rH 4J < .„ G O in -H r- 4-1 en it) H M O a tt) O 0 •rH 4-1 MH d MH 0) 0 E a en o d rH H O 4J > d oi H Q M 3 d •P O 3'd rH O >• u o rH 0) E U MH > d MM E U 3 O O M CO > M id o MJ rH O id id id 4-1 O 4-> id -H •• id 73 tn ( 73 O O 4-1 O Q 4-1 rH U "H rH O - rH id d id 3 - O 3 Cf M 4-1 tr o en M -r( d M U M rH 01 4-1 11 J3 4J id 4-i in id ID M 15 .a id 4-1 73 d id x o rH Q* E O U -P d id H ft id 73 £4 01 M 30 O O O !* rH M M-i 3 3 O 0 73 01 2 d o id « >i M • 73 -P (U ^ Q) •H 4-1 r- i-H fd O"i 'O Id S rH M 3 n tr o - • • 73 in • H M Id O 4-1 O M O d 4-1 4-1 O M 11 M Id rH 3 g id S o O 4J ft u 01 id O 1) • -« M o 73 id M o rH o o y 01 0) M u 0) 4-1 •3 r; 0 id M id ft 4-1 id X 0 rH a E 0 u rH •rH O 01 rH id .d id M 0 MH in H 01 >i rH id d < 4-1 0 nj a g H , — ^ id 4-1 d E r- id o 4-1 73 ii id id rH 73 M .a o Id U rH E-l rH O £> U id CO rH ^ T H d Id -rl > 01 Qj id id « E T O O r- MO en MH d rH Id 73 O 0) O 73 4-1 -H rH 3 fU o a r-l E E MH 0 O Si O M O M-I H 01 o; i) id Cr-P u id id H M Q •P 0) d > o id id -H -P 73 O < 1) rH •P O .d M H >, o i) ae £-t r-H id 73 M d 3 id 4-1 id >i 2 4J •H MH r-H o id 3 4-1 O d 11 M g 0) 4-1 4-1 M id id S a o a 0 o d 13 H id M o d rH O O -H U -P id •rH o o O 01 rH 01 0 < o in M M o o > 5 d rH 3 1) M O Q 0) U 3 • 4-1 O Hi Id - rH Id • 3 M MH UH O -PK1 d > oi oil id d M . o O ft * O -H Q • Z M id Cn o •P 0 E id d m 3. o o o >i 73 >1 l~) rH XI r-l 4-1 O M -rl -05 73 M rH Q) 11 O id rH id 73 U 3^4-1 d tr o n) o O r-l Q g O M Cn 1 E •H O) U O > 4-1 g -rH 0 M Id O 01 D 01 S M id « I/) 0 M-I CQ T) M o id 4-1 u id r D 0 m u O ( M I 3 -r O M 01 M 0 C t M I 01 ' -P 4 id t 15 r ) T? p r— en 4 rH I a E • 1 >i ! 01 i r i M C 3 I in rH • id U -p ( c MH 0 0 0 •P i d o o •< g 1 •P S M id « a ( rH OH r- a M en V rH * : • 0 in rH rH D • •rH 1- 33 E 1 0 4 3 M 1 Id MH \|i M P O id O 4-1 S id ( 73 7 f 3 J o c X rH r- tu ( Z m C. • T n -1 h t U 73 J -rl H ja -1 M -1 3 • 31 0 H O -i in -i r-j : r- H O -i en tj O J : o : d H O U -H > 4-1 3 id 1 -P in • .. o J 73 id 3 M o • rH : o 3 U J Jl : 01 H Cn : d n -H 0 M c a in 73 Q O 3 O 4 3 3 d J 0) S 5 H 4-> I) id J D M C OJ D -rl J 05 D 4 0 H 73 3 id 1 M o rH o H U -1 M H O a MH u (d 3 n) 3 73 5 4 3 3 O H rH 3 Pu 1 3 tn rH O id K d tn O 73 0) 01 O a: M n o o ft a 73 O 0) M fc. ft O o 73 -3 id = M • 01 O 01 CM rH d • O o o m s: U -rl d 4J O d Id r-l 0) M rH 4J > 1) 3 id -H d u 3 QJ CC tn 4J Q O O M OJ d 0 >i 4J MO) O Id 0) 73 > S 4J M M n) id 3 tn S 73 in d d •H tn id r-l X d 4-1 id d -ri 01 O -H Ji! •H M d M tn Q -rH ii O M .d rH >1 O 4J 0 M 0 o id E U 73 -rl 11 d M 73 O O 3 W O 4J rH o do D in M c •H rH rH 4J id • id in in d ^ c c •ri Or- O O Cn -H r- -r4 -H O -P Cn 4-14-1 rH id r-i id id O Z Z rH M * - * ? 'O r— 1 01 >i ro ai XI • • M tN -d >1 o o o o • d M d 01 X On) o 01 Cn Si Cn ,i"l 11 < — - rt« E-l en M d r- d O O "* 0 • 0) -HI H ^^ O 4J ro 4J m O i1 o r- * 11 rH o en >, 4J r- 4J rH 11 O rH O rH M M - 01 ft • ft •* 1) en CN > rH 11 rH id id a. id M 11 4J 4-10) ,-5 d • d xj fl) 73 ii e g 6 o E o o • d to do M d O O O M-l O M (N M a •rl -rH T -r4 " id 4J > > 4-1 id d d r- td o W • W co 73 rl 01 1 d * d - ------- A. Water Requirements of Energy Facilities The water requirements for energy facilities hypothesized in the Rifle area are shown in Table 6-18. Two sets of data are pre- sented. The Energy Resource Development System (ERDS) data are based on secondary sources, including impact statements, Federal Power Commission docket filings, and recently published data ac- cumulations,1 and can be considered typical requirement levels. The Water Purification Associates data are from a study on mini- mum water use requirements and take into account opportunities to recycle water on site as well as the moisture content of the coal being used and local meteorological conditions.2 The man- ner in which water is consumed by these facilities is shown in Figure 6-5. Cooling consumes the most water in power generation, while for oil shale processing, cooling, and solid waste disposal consume comparable amounts. As indicated in Table 6-18, the 1,000 MWe coal-fired power plant at Rifle requires 9,400 acre-ft/yr of water, using a high wet cooling technology. The water requirements of the power plant equipped with an intermediate wet cooling system (i.e., combin- ation of wet and dry towers) are 2,786 acre-ft/yr, a reduction in water use of some 71 percent. For the 50,000 barrel TOSCO II oil shale retort water requirements are 4,650 to 9,272 acre-ft/yr.3 The water requirements of the in. situ oil shale facility are 4,360 acre-ft/yr without surface retort, and 5,663 acre-ft/yr with a sur- face retort.1* The type of cooling chosen is often determined by JThe ERDS is based on data drawn from University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program. Energy Alternatives; A Com- parative Analysis. Washington, B.C.:' Government Printing Office, 1975; and Radian Corporation. A Western Regional Energy Develop- ment Study, Final Report, 3 vols. and Executive Summary. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1975. These data are published in White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environ- mental Protection Agency, forthcoming. 2Gold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. 3The difference between these two values is the exclusion of mine dust control and spent shale reclamation water requirements in the low value and the inclusion of it in the high value. See footnote "e" of Table 6-18. 4Both of these values include water for mine dust control and the 5,663 value includes water for spent shale reclamation. See footnotes "f" and "g" of Table 6-18. 419 ------- TABLE 6-18: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR ENERGY FACILITIES AT RIFLE (acre-feet per year) TECHNOLOGY3 Power Generation (1,000 MWe) Oil Shale Retort TOSCO II (50,000 bbl/day) Modified In Situ Oil Shale (57,000 bbl/day) Modified In Situ Oil Shale With Surface Retort (57,000 bbl/day) Oil Well Field (50,000 bbl/day) Power Plant ERDSb WET COOLING 9,400 9,272e 4,360f 5,663s 2,500-4,100h WPAC COMBINATIONS OF WET AND DRY COOLING HIGH WET 9,494 NC NC NC NC INTERMEDIATE WET 2,786 6,46s1 NC NC NC Cost range in which indicated cooling technology is most economic (dollars per thousand gallons) NC < 3.65-5.90 >3. 65-5. 90 ERDS = Energy Resource Development Systems Report WPA = Water Purification Associates MWe = megawatt-electric NC = not considered bbl/day = barrels per day < = less than •> = greater than aThese values assume an annual load factor of 75 percent in the case of the power plant and 90 percent in the case of the oil shale facilities. bWhite, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.:U.S.,Environmental Protection Agency,forthcoming. cGold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States .Washington,D.C.:U.S.,Environmental Protec- tion Agency, 1977. Combinations of wet and wet-dry cooling were obtained by examining the economics of cool- ing alternatives for the steam turbine condensers. In the high wet case, these are all wet cooled; in the intermediate case, wet cooling handles ten percent of the load on the turbine condensers. eOf the total 9,272, 891 is for dust control in the mining operations; 7,301 is needed for the retort; and 1,100 is used for reclaiming and revegetating the spent shale. ^Of the total 4,360, 730 is used for dust control in the mining operations and 3,630 is needed for the in situ retort. sOf the 5,663, 547 is for dust control in the mining operations; 2,722 is needed for the in situ retort and 2,081 for the surface retort; and 313 is used for reclaiming and re- vegetating the spent shale. hThis represents the water requirements of a water flood in the oil field. iThis value represents the water requirements for a TOSCO II retort (4,653 acre-ft) and water for spent shale disposal (1,815 acre-ft). The engineering design for that system calls for integration of some dry cooling, thus it is termed intermediate wet. 420 ------- 0) to (D a, QJ m I a) M o o o o 10 9_ 8. 7. 6. 5. 4^ 3_ 2_ 1- EKDS WPA-H ERDS Cooling Tower Evaporation Consumed in the Process Solids Disposal and Other D WPA-I Power Generation (1,000 MWe) Oil Shale Retort TOSCO II (50,000 bbl/day) FIGURE 6-5: WATER CONSUMPTION FOR ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE RIFLE SCENARIO ERDS = Energy Resource Development System WPA-H = Water Purification Associates-High Wet Cooling WPA-I = Water Purification Associates-Intermediate Wet Cooling MWe = megawatt-electric bbl/day = barrels per day Source: The ERDS data is from White, Irvin L. et al. Energy From the West; Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington,D.C.:U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forth- coming. The WPA data is from Gold, Harris, et al. Water Require- ments .for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. The oil shale retort includes water used for spent shale disposal. 421 ------- water availability and price. The current price of water in the Southwest is 3 to 30£ per thousand gallons. If water costs in- crease above a range of $3.60 to $5.90.per thousand gallons, it be- comes more profitable to use less water by employing intermediate wet cooling for the power plant. However, which cooling system is chosen may depend on other factors in addition to economics. If intermediate wet cooling is used, even though water costs $0.25 per thousand gallons, the cost of electricity would increase 1 to 2 cents per kilowatt hour. As shown in Figure 6-4, water for the power plant will be taken from the White River near Meeker. Water that has been re- leased from a new upstream off-channel impoundment will be with- drawn from the Colorado River near Grand Valley to supply the 50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant. This new impoundment will be filled with flood flows from the Colorado River. The 57,000 bbl/ day oil shale plant will use as process water groundwater from dewatering the oil shale mines. B. Effluents from Energy Facilities Table 6-19 lists expected amounts of solid effluents produced by energy facilities in the Rifle scenario. The greatest amount of solid effluents will be produced by the 50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II facility, more than 49,000 tons per day. The 1,000 MWe power plant is expected to produce less than 700 tons of solid effluents per day (assuming average load factors).1 The TOSCO II plant will pro- duce the highest volume of dry and wet solids, more than 48,000 tons of dry solids, primarily spent shale, and slightly less than 1,000 tons of wet solids per day. The power plant will have the highest volume of dissolved solids, 12 tons per day. Effluents from the modified in. situ process are essentially unknown. If the mined shale is retorted, the spent shale will be produced at a rate of 27,000 tons per day. In the power plant and TOSCO II plant, dissolved solids are present in the ash blowdown effluent, the demin.eralized waste ef- fluent, and the flue gas desulfurization effluent.2 The principle constituents of wastewater which appear as dissolved solids are calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate, and chlorine. !The average load factor for the power plant is 75 percent and TOSCO II facility is 90 percent. 2Demineralization is a method of preparing water for use in boilers; it produces a waste stream composed of chemicals present in the source water. The ash blowdown stream is the water used to remove bottom ash from the boiler. Bottom ash removal is done via a wet sluicing system using cooling tower blowdown water. Thus, the dissolved solids content of that stream is composed of chemi- cals from the' ash and cooling water. 422 ------- § § u W J <; w CO I VD H tO IS Q) D i-3 1^ fc Q) &H CXl u 4-> Z 41 H 01 UH a i £3 01 EH IH < 0 2 re H I •o M a 8, § to C 0 4J EH — W 3 .a rn 0 H D k4 W O > cn J 0 CO cn a u a< EH ^ ?j £7 j f«j V; Cu •«r o ^> r-H 0 D - (N rH r- TT r- 43 (N D — CM O 0 O m ro D 00 ^" r~ oo D m Q^ fN 01 _, i-H H M --^ 3 U- IH O (8 -H re 01 cn >o cnro 3 O ^v \ O EH rH CM 2 01 Xl Xl O £ rH 13 •H re o oi o ,40 XI O -HO 4J o cn o UH o U O - -rt - 0) - rH O 'O C— rH rH -H in O m w~ o— s — a a a a o 0 o a (N a a a a 4J o 3\|4J -. ^ 4-1 01 >i-0 >i •H\|C; to >o re COl Tl rH TS tl)^. 0) N. 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C 'H 4-1 in 3 • ^D rH 0\ 1 H 0 1 00 kO • 0 Z 4-> O re IH c o u ,rf a. u * 10 01 4J re 4-1 cn •o 01 •H c e IH 0) 4-1 in 41 C O •a 01 in re A to -H •O C 18 to •O C 01 X 4> 4J IH a 01 e o •H 4-1 18 IH 0 a 0 o c re • H •O re 41 XI EH • 00 r^ y, rH * C o 4J re IH o a o u c •H •a 01 W o a, 01 IH •0 c 18 to 41 4-> re •H O 0 CO to < e 0 •iH 4J re o •H MH -H ^ 3 Oj ^4 41 4J re s >1 f) •o 41 4J ^) 3 •o c o o 10 m 10 ^ rH (8 e re IH 01 •H rH ^\| re 01 c o •rH 4J re IH 0> c 01 o ^ 4) 3 0 Bu O •H IH 4-> U 01 rH U E re 41 4-1 cn V4. 0 UH CO -P C g 4) •H 3 tr 41 M 41 4-1 re U r-H re -y c 01 g c o r4 H ^ C u «. • cn D • to 01 re 4-> cn T3 41 4-1 H C a C M 41 4-1 CO 01 [5 0> XI 4J C H CO 4J C re rH •04 rH IBM fttl 4J 3 OlICu * O 01 -H •H 4J •w 4) « 4J I C -cn T3 -H-0 O C V re • [— r^ 01 rH - >^ 0 C cu t£ c o •H 4J O 01 o • CO •O >i cn re re TJ O -O -H IH rH O rH 0 in -H 0 rH VO 4-> CO t> rH ro 01 0) 3 XI CO T3 UH >,4J re e XI C 01 4-1 >< c a re 'o co 41 cn 0) > 3 Cn.,H ^i -H CO C rH O Ol •H Cb«H Ol 4->-r4 81 iH re 4-1 -P 41 re IH rH C 3 0) 3 0) rH 01 a E o re 73 O M > iH 41 0) rH co xi a 4> o •H XI CO 4J O EH >i CO 01 41 4J 3 XI -rH g 4) • 4J rH li CO •H cn re -P xi O IH CO re o) co re -H «H XI ^ rH XI E o a 3 01 3 4J xi c o u c 4-1 re 4> -H 41 VM 3 C CO Or* 4) 01 'O Q* 4) XIXI 18 4J tJ 0 3 >1 * UH re co 01 TJ 01 • 4-> XI 3 IH C 4J IBrH 0 01 « 4-> O UH IH > U IH 0 o re cu UH >,UH O,4J rH XI C IH t3 m er oi re re r~ -in > 01 O 4) •H >, rH na 5 O"1 C c 01 re oi 4)-H V XI IH re re co 4J re 4J IH 41 Xl Ol -r4 01 cn o > 4J T5 4) re -H 3 3 O rH rH rH 4J 0) l-l O • re xi o c -a > IH 4J re -H 01 4) UH > 0) T3 >i 4J i-H cn IH XI to O O 01 O rH C CO XI T) 01 CO EH C C 3 O -H .0 H re UH T3 "O o 4-1 0 re UH •a re 0 rH 4) XI 4-1 4J C 3 0 u u re o 4J C -H 01 re 4J •a c re rH re 3 c c re 4) l-i re rrj 41 IH re XI 0 tn •H •a ^i 41 4J re u IH O UH co 0) 3 i-H re 41 XI EH u 01 4J •H 3 41 XI 0 4-1 4J XI Cn 3 0 x; 4-1 4) U re >i 41 XI 4J t3 4) IH •8 • r4 to C o u 4-1 0 c CD M re re 4J re •o 4J c 4) 3 rH UH UH 0) t) rH 0) UH rH • r4 O 4) rH • H £ S TJ • in 0) •H 4J -H rH •H O re UH 41 rH 18 XI CO rH •H O •a c re 4-1 c re rH P, IH 41 0 a 41 XI 4J E 0 UH to 4-1 c 4> 3 rH UH UH 0) o 4J C 0 to •H IH id a E O u c •H rH rH M to 423 ------- Wet solids from the electric power plant are in the form of flue gas sludge, bottom ash, and cooling water treatment waste sludge. Calcium carbonate (CaC03) and calcium sulfate (CaS04) are the primary constituents of flue gas sludge. The bottom ash is primarily oxides of aluminum and silicon. CaC03 is the princi- pal constituent of cooling water treatment waste. In all cases, the amount of cooling water treatment waste is very small, com- pared to the bottom ash and flue gas sludge. The quantity of wet solids in the flue gas desulfurization sludge depends on the ef- ficiency of the facility's scrubbers (80 percent removal has been assumed here), and on the SOa content of the flue gas. Dry solid waste produced by the power plant is primarily fly ash composed of oxides of aluminum, silicon, and iron. The water content of the effluent stream accounts for one per- cent of the total water requirements of the power plant, and from 21 to 31 percent of the total water requirements of the TOSCO II oil shale retort. (Data in Table 6-19 compared with data in Table 6-18). Dissolved and wet solids will be sent to evaporative holding ponds and later deposited in landfills. Dry solids are treated with water to prevent dusting and deposited in a landfill.1 The spent shale is expected to be dumped into canyons, compacted, and revegetated. 6.3.4 Impacts This section describes water impacts which result from the mines and conversion facilities individually, and from a scenario which includes construction of all facilities according to the hypothesized scenario schedule.2 The water requirements and im- pacts associated with expected population increases are included in the scenario impact description. A. Mine Impacts (1) Underground Coal Mine The coal mine for the power plant will use surface-water sources and should not result in the depletion of any regional groundwater aquifers. However, the mine openings will probably intercept some of the groundwater flow in the Mesa Verde Group, lThe environmental problems of solid waste disposal in land- fills are discussed in Chapter 10. 2Because the water requirements of and effluents from the oil well field are small in comparison to those of the power plant and oil shale facilities, water impacts of the oil well field are not considered in this section. 424 ------- and any associated dewatering operations could also cause deple- tion of local aquifers, particularly if the aquifers are perched. Since the coal mine will be located on a natural watershed divide, runoff affected by the mining process can be trapped with- out disturbing natural surface-water drainage. Also, because this is an underground mine, only a small area will be needed for sur- face facilities that cause changes in water quality. Water af- fected by these facilities will be trapped and introduced into the water treatment facilities at the power plant. The extent of the impacts will increase as expanded mine openings intercept more aquifers and/or remove more of the original aquifer, resulting in greater interruption of groundwater flow. Also, mine subsidence may begin to set in and may lead to such ef- fects as topographic and drainage pattern changes, disruption of groundwater flow in the overburden, and possibly mixing of fresh and saline aquifers. (2) Underground Oil Shale Mines The oil shale mine will have several impacts on the bedrock groundwater aquifers.1 Interception of the flow will cause sev- eral springs and seeps to dry up, and the recharge to alluvial aquifers will also be reduced. Mining operations will deplete the bedrock aquifers by 420 acre-ft/yr (0.58 cfs), which will lower the local water table below the bed of Parachute Creek and thus eliminate its base flow.2 B. Energy Conversion Facilities impacts Water impacts may be divided into those occurring during con- struction and during operation, and those occurring because of the water requirements of facilities and because of effluents from the facilities. Construction activities at the conversion facilities will re- move vegetation and disturb the soil. These activities have an effect on surface-water quality. The major effect will be in- creases in the sediment load of local runoff. Maintenance areas and petroleum products storage facilities will also be needed to 1Weeks, John B., et al. Simulated Effects of Oil-Shale Devel- opment on the Hydrology of Piceance Basin, Colorado, U.S. Geolog- ical Survey Professional Paper 908. Washington, B.C.: Government Printing Office, 1974, p. 4. 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Draft Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Development of Oil Shale Resources by the Colony Development Operation in Colorado. Washington, D.C.: Bureau of Land Management, 1975, p. 34. 425 ------- support construction equipment. Areas for the storage of other construction-related materials (such as aggregate for a concrete batch plant) may be required as well. All these facilities have the potential for contaminating runoff. Runoff control methods will be instituted at all the potential sources of contaminants. Runoff will be channeled to a holding pond for settling, reuse, and evaporation. Because the supply of water to this pond is in- termittent, evaporation may claim most of the water, but some of the water may be used for dust control. (1) Power Plant The operation of a 1,000 MWe power plant facility will require from 2,800 to 9,500 acre-feet of surface water annually (see Table 6-18). This water will come from the White River near Meeker. A 28-acre surface reservoir to be constructed at the plant site will contain a 21-day supply of water. This water will be used during extremely low-flow periods in the White River, but the plant will generally not draw water solely from the reservoir for more than 14 consecutive days. At full load, the plant requires approxi- mately 20 cubic feet of water per second and this is about 14 per- cent of the lowest recorded flow in the White River at Meeker. Since water for the coal-fired power plant will be obtained from surface-water sources, excessive withdrawals and aquifer de- pletions are not expected to be major problems. In fact, leakage from fresh-water storage ponds should have the beneficial effect of recharging local perched aquifers with high quality water that will tend to dilute lower quality water. Lower quality recharge would be expected from cooling tower and sanitary effluent ponds and from scrubber sludge and ash disposal sites. This may result in contamination of local Mesa Verde aquifers. Approximate quantities of effluents expected from the opera- tion of the power plant are given in Table 6-19. These effluents will be discharged into clay-lined retention ponds to reduce the potential for pollution of local surface waters or groundwaters, although some leakage from these ponds could occur and pollute groundwater. (2) 50,000 bbl/day Oil Shale Plant Since water for operation of the 50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant will be taken from surface water, the water requirements of this plant will have minimal negative impact on groundwater sup- plies. Although water storage ponds at the site may provide bene- ficial recharge to the bedrock aquifers, leakage from effluent dis- posal ponds may lower groundwater quality. If the spent (pro- cessed) oil shale from the 50,000 bbl/day plant is deposited in gullies as planned, infiltrating precipitation and water added for revegetation may leach trace elements and dissolved salts into both 426 ------- bedrock and alluvial aquifers (the latter by pollution of stream- flow which becomes recharge to the alluvial aquifers). The water supply system envisioned for the 50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant on Parachute Creek will have little effect on surface flows. Water is postulated to be released from an upstream im- poundment and removed near the confluence of the Colorado River and Parachute Creek. The impoundment will be offstream and will be filled with flood flows from the Colorado River. There should be no measurable adverse environmental impact from this water supply system provided the impoundment design is adequate to handle ex- treme low-flow periods. If the plant were to withdraw process water without a corresponding impoundment release, the plant re- quirement of 12.7 cfs is equivalent to 1.8 percent of the minimum low flow of record near Cameo, Colorado1 (the closest gauging sta- tion with adequate records). Even during such an extreme event, changes caused by the process withdrawals would be small. The large areas used for spent shale disposal will contribute to the increases in surface runoff as will the process facilities and roads. Also, the oil shale disposal piles may become semi- impermeable until vegetation has been established, which could in- crease runoff as much as 1.4 acre-feet per acre of disposal pile.2 However, this increase in runoff will appear as a loss of flow in the local streams during the life of the plant because the water will be caught by retention facilities and treated for use as pro- cess make-up water. These facilities will cause a portion of the natural watershed to be effectively removed from the basin, thus causing the flow decrease in local streams. After vegetation is established and runoff quality has been shown to be acceptable, the retention facility will be deactivated and runoff will be re- turned to these streams. (3) In Situ Oil Shale Facility Potential sources of surface water impacts from the in situ oil shale operation in the Rifle scenario include sediment deliv- ery, leaching of dissolved solids, and leaching of toxic substances into the Piceance Creek watershed. Runoff retention facilities will be used around shale piles, and dams in nearby gulches should be adequate to protect surface water systems from runoff. However, ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Draft Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed Development of Oil Shale Resources by the Colony Development Operation in Colorado. Washington, D.C.: Bureau of Land Management, 1975, p. 34. 2Weeks, John B., et al. Simulated Effects of Oil Shale Devel- opment on the Hydrology of Piceance Basin, Colorado, U.S. Geolog- ical Survey Professional Paper 908.Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1974. 427 ------- complete protection will not be possible during construction of these dams. After diversion and retention facilities are com- pleted in 1982, pollution of the watershed will be markedly reduced. Water tapped by these facilities will be used for shale moisturi- zation, treated and recycled in the retorting process, or evapora- ted in clay-lined pits. The result will be minimal quality and quantity impacts upon surface waters. There is a possibility of mine water defluoridation and discharge into Piceance Creek. De- fluoridation would bring the mine water within EPA drinking water standards, and would augment the watershed in times of low flows, arid reduce the fluoride concentrations in the creek slightly. Withdrawals of water from the Colorado River are expected to be minimal and will have a negligible impact on water quality and availability in that basin. Because of the mine dewatering oper- ations, a reduction of groundwater discharge to streams will occur in the Piceance and Yellow Creek Basins. The underground mine and associated surface facilities are likely to affect both upper and lower aquifers during construc- tion, operation, and postoperation phases. During the construc- tion phase, leaching of shale piles, and disposal of excess water from dewatering and irrigation of the shale piles could result in a groundwater contamination problem. During the operational phase, shale oil and related organic and inorganic compounds could all be considered contaminants that could enter the groundwater systems. If the mined oil shale is retorted at the surface, it will pose a potential threat to the groundwater system. Leaching and migra- tion of leachate to groundwater systems are not likely to occur unless the piles become saturated or nearly saturated. The likeli- hood of spent shale leachate reaching groundwater systems will de- pend on whether excess mine water is disposed of by irrigation of the shale and, if so, the rate of application of this irrigation water. Petroleum-like products from the surface operations of the in siJbu facility may also pose water quality problems for ground- water at the site due to leakage or spills. This problem can be minimized by proper operation and maintenance of equipment, and prompt cleanup of any spills or leaks. After the operations cease, the in situ retorts may become saturated by the water table, releasing contaminants into the water and lowering water quality. The higher permeability of the retort area can also be expected to affect the flow relation- ship of the upper and lower bedrock aquifers. The combustion of the oil shale in these retorts may mobilize trace elements, or- ganic substances, or other potentially hazardous materials that could be subsequently leached by groundwater after operations cease and the water table reestablishes itself. Whether the high temperatures used in the retort will increase or decrease the availability of trace elements or other contaminants is unknown. The potential for groundwater contamination by trace elements is currently under investigation. 428 ------- TABLE 6-20: EXPECTED MUNICIPAL WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR INCREASED POPULATION IN THE RIFLE REGION3 (acre-feet per year) LOCATION Rifle Grand Valley Glenwood Springs Rural Meeker Rangely Grand Junction 1975b 364 29 615 1,308 374 374 8,386 1980 65 30 26 110 800 480 782 1990 530 280 80 140 880 380 2,665 2000 575 290 119 205 950 410 3,898 Based on 130 percent of reported wastewater flow. See Table 6-22. 1975 data are estimated municipal water usage. Data for 1980, 1990, and 2000 represent increased water usage over the 1975 requirements. C. Scenario Impacts Water impacts resulting from interactions among the hypothe- sized facilities and water impacts resulting from associated pop- ulation increases are discussed in this section. Water requirements for direct use by these hypothesized en- ergy facilities (assuming high wet cooling) increase from approxi- mately 9,500 acre-ft/yr in 1980, when the power plant is operating, to 24,000 acre-ft/yr by 1990, when the power plant and both oil shale plants are in operation. The increased population associated with energy development will require additional water supply facilities. An estimated to- tal of 17,900 acre-ft/yr of water will be1 required by the year 2000. This requirement has been broken down by municipality in Table 6-20. 1 Water for municipal use will probably be withdrawn Population estimates do not include increases caused by secondary industries. 429 ------- from Colorado's allocation of the Colorado River either through a direct intake of river water or from wells in alluvial aquifers. In either case, permits must be obtained from the State of Colorado to withdraw this water. Rural populations are assumed to use individual, on-site waste disposal facilities (septic tanks and drainfields). The urban pop- ulation will require waste treatment facilities. The current sta- tus of wastewater treatment facilities in the municipalities most affected by energy development activities is indicated in Table 6-21. The wastewater generated by the population increases asso- ciated with energy development is shown in Table 6-22. Based on current capacities of treatment facilities, all the communities impacted in this scenario, except Glenwood Springs and Grand Junction, will require new wastewater treatment facilities to accommodate new population due to energy developments. New fa- cilities will need to use "best practicable" waste treatment tech- nologies to conform to 1983 standards, and must make allowance for recycling or zero discharge of pollutants to meet 1985 standards.1 The 1985 standards could be met by using effluents from the waste treatment facility for industrial process make-up water or for irrigating local farmland. (1) To 1980 The only facilities to be in operation by 1980 are the 1,000 MWe power plant and its associated underground coal mine. The water requirement for the power plant will be approximately 9,500 acre-ft/yr, assuming high wet cooling and a 75 percent load factor (Table 6-18). This requirement is about 2 percent of the average flow and 8 percent of the minimum flow of the White River near Meeker.2 Intermediate wet cooling could reduce water use by 71 percent. The effects of energy development-related population growth on area municipal facilities in terms of increased water supply and wastewater treatment demand are shown in Tables 6-20 and 6-21. Small communities will be significantly affected by large increases in water and wastewater service requirements. Updating treatment facilities to meet expected population demands may cost more per capita in a small municipality than in a large city. Under present law, pollutants from the sewage treatment plant may < federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, §§ 101, 301; 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976). 2Flow values obtained from Table 6-17; minimum flow values in cfs converted to acre-ft/yr by multiplying by 724.5 acre-ft/ yr/cfs. 430 ------- CM I l-D S ,j Cu EH Z w en u « a< a < o rJ 0 w u 0 w u H EH M J W U < h U K S EH b ™^' " QJ rn O1 § Cr- _\|rK_ •O a tT1 ^. EH r... t-i ^ U (V U- H Eu o u a. >H EH z 1 CH C (8 rH & .C rH O IN tn c •H rH 18 a 01 IH a. 00 rH IN • m o E 01 4-J 10 >( to C 0 O en IB rH rated 01 < 01 rH UJ •rH o: c IB r-t a rH 0 CN Cn c •H rH 18 a 0) r4 0- •a 0) •o 18 0 rH rH O) ^ 0 m o 0 C o •H 4-1 IB rH 01 IB •O tende X M >i 0) rH IB T3 C IB rH O 4-> C 10 rH a 0) en IB ^ o 18 a c IB rH a rH 0 r>) T3 0) 4-J 01 rH a E 0 u m • o m rH •p C 18 ^H a M CD 4J rH •H 14J en ickli i-i EH 0) If •iH U a U3 T) 0 O C 01 rH O C IB rH a rH 0 IN 13 0) 4-1 0) rH a E o u. r^ IN • r ro r- 4J C 10 i-H a LI 0) 4-1 rH •rH UH en c ickli S-l EH C 0 •H •P O c 3 ID •a c 10 iH u 1 >. 1 -H IH C -P 10 IB D -H a IB 4J X rH (1) "O 0) a-p IH en 0) S + •a s C d) 3 •»• CO • T3 NO 3 4J rH rH C •P 0 to (U C 4-1 E 0) "04-1 )-i c oi ro r( 0 4J OJ 3 -H IB -H U in > 4-1 fl- tN • o IN O C 0 •H 4-1 IB rH 0) 18 •a 0) •o 01 •p X u 1-1 01 X 01 fll 1 X 0) IH o UH (U to 18 .c a c en •iH to 0) Q r^ r— 1 • 0 VO rH 0 c 0 0 Cn IB rH rated 0) < >, rH 0) Cn c IB K T3 a Cn s o . rH o -p c. 0 • H in c 10 a in c O o Cn 10 rH t) 0) 4-1 10 rH 0) 10 s: •P •rH 3 >1 IB •O rH w a 10 c o rH i-l IB en c o • H rH rH •H S II •O a Cn s c 0 •H 4-> 18 O •H C 3 g £ 0 0 rH IB C O in i^j 0) a k. C O •H in in •rH E \|2 O U rH O IH 4-> C o u >1 4-1 •H rH IB 3 O i-l Q) 4J IB 2 0 T3 ra VH O r-l O U re CO IN MH r-> O un C 0 • -rH < -P • O O 3 • rH U3 4-1 • to D C O ro o -o - C rH 18 O (N - C •rH - tn IN O) r- -a rH - en HH C O -H c in C 4J 18 C i-H U 18 C O) 0 rH •rH IB 4-> 3 to rH T3 rH C ' 0 3 tp CW <H 0) • H M rH ••-> 0) 18 '"j •P Ll •-* a orr\| S -o ^ 01 ,IB rH «H ^ 18 U C -U S) -H C •O 4) 0) 0) h E It, 01 -P £ 18 01 3 O) X 1-1 •P — 4-> VD O r- IH •P Ol O) rH 4-1 tn « M • 3 01 a oj «H O.-P 0) 3 0) K t/3 IB x — 3 431 ------- Q W cn -< w tf u cfl S Z O O « H fa O co a o w j J fa fa H « « w EH W < ffi !S EH W EH 2 CO H O Q H W EH EH rf U Hi W D CU CK X O W Pn CN CN I W H £> -^ W >i o J 03 o t! o in CN en cu rH DJ H CO > C 0 0 CQ H o rfj rH CTl 03 CTl !S CT> rH O fa Q) CO Q od W CD CO SH < O 0 WC oo PS -H H 2 Cu o o U3 CTi ro rH • • 0 0 ^r CN 0 O • • 0 0 in CN CN O 0 O O ^f o m ,_\| ^i QJ rH rH 03 ^> QJ T) rH C! m 03 •rH SH PS O CN 00 00 0 rH • • O O m in CN O rH • • 0 O 00 VO rH CN O O • • 0 O CN CTi - CO 0 0 rH 0 ro in • • • 000 in CN CN rH CO o o in m oo rH kD CN rH rH c o •H -p o c j3 t>i 1"D ^ rH d) (U T3 ^ Cn C QJ a fd Q) 03 SH s PS a O •H -P U 0) CO C •H o rH 0) X) C QJ > •H Cn 10 0) -p •H 4J W cu o -H -P (0 CU o Cu C 0 Q) to 432 ------- discharge to surface waters until 1985. If a reliable treatment scheme can be devised, there should be no significant pollution from this practice. Where population growth occurs in rural areas having no centralized treatment facilities, groundwater quality may be decreased by septic tank and drainfield systems, but the substrate -has a natural capacity for renovation if septic tank density becomes too great. Other environmental effects to be expected as a result of pop- ulation growth include a decrease in surface-water quality stem- ming from urban runoff. If contaminated runoff recharges aquifers, then groundwater quality may be affected as well. Leachates from additional municipal solid waste disposal sites can also contam- inate both groundwater and surface water. (2) To 1990 The 50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II oil shale plant will begin opera- tions in 1985. Construction of the in situ oil shale facility will begin in 1984, and the plant will go on-line in 1990. The 1,000 MWe power plant will continue operation throughout this period. By 1990, the mine for the TOSCO II plant will have disturbed 375 acres of land which will result in impoundment of runoff water. The water for the retort, 4,650 acre-ft/yr, will be taken from the Colorado River. This requirement is 0.2 percent of the average flow of the Colorado River above Grand Valley and 2.2 percent of the minimum flow. Municipal water supply requirements will have to be met through increases in service systems and treatment facilities. The quantities of the increases in water supply and wastewater are shown in Table 6-20 and 6-22. If municipalities install sewage treatment facilities that meet the goal of zero discharge of pollutants by 1985, the in- creased municipal effluent will have little effect on groundwater systems. A possible exception is excess leakage from municipal sewer lines that could contaminate shallow aquifers. Population growth in rural areas may also have an impact on aquifers. In areas of high population density where septic tank and drainfield disposal methods are used, the cumulative effect of the septic tanks may exceed the capacity of the soils to renovate the drain- field effluent. The result could be the direct infiltration of effluents into aquifers, thereby lowering groundwater quality. Other sources of contamination for both surface and groundwater are urban runoff and leachate from solid waste disposal sites. (3) To 2000 The impacts of the in situ oil shale facility, TOSCO II oil shale plant, and the coal mine and power plant will continue as in 433 ------- the preceding decade. Continued operations at the coal mine, in situ oil shale mine, and the 50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant are expected to increase the effects on the depletion of bedrock aquifers. Water added to the spent shale during revegetation, as well as natural precipitation, will leach trace elements, dis- solved salts, and other contaminants from the shale. This con- taminated water may then recharge the lower Green River aquifer, which has low water quality (high TDS) even in natural conditions. As mining activities increase, recharge into Yellow and Piceance Creeks (Figure 6-1) will be further diminished, and water quality will be lowered in the groundwater recharge areas. Because of Public Law 92-500, which has a goal of zero dis- charge of pollutants by 1985, the only surface-water effects asso- ciated with effluent disposal at the energy facilties will be the result of unplanned occurrences. Ponds used for the ultimate dis- posal of cooling-tower blowdown, sanitary effluent, and scrubber sludge will continue to fill. The associated water will be evap- orated or may leak into the pond liner material, carrying some of the dissolved constituents with it. There will be the continuing possibility that some harmful constituents will reach the ground- water system and cause a degradation of both surface and ground- water supplies. Clay absorption in the pond liner or, where it occurs, in the clay substrate will reduce the TDS content. Increased urban and rural population growth in the 1990-2000 decade will produce qualitatively similar but quantitatively greater effects as compared with the preceding decade. Municipal facilities will experience progressively increasing demands for water supply and wastewater treatment (see Tables 6-20 and 6-22). Water supplies will continue to be charged against Colorado's share of Upper Basin surface water, whether taken from streams or alluvial aquifers. Wastewater treatment facilities will be changed from discharging to local streams to recycling or land application of effluents. Recycled water may help diminish the water supply demands placed on local sources by hypothesized energy development facilities. (4) After 2000 After operations cease, the oil shale and coal mines may sub- side over the long term, resulting in minor changes in topography and drainage patterns as well as changes in groundwater flow pat- terns in the overburden. In addition, the coal mine may produce acid water. However, insufficient groundwater data preclude the evaluation of this potential problem. The low-sulfur content of the coal may reduce this probability. After the plants are decommissioned, the facilities will re- main. Leakage from effluent disposal ponds may continue to re- charge and contaminate groundwater systems long after operations cease unless the sites are properly maintained. Likewise, the 434 ------- dikes around the evaporative ponds may lose their protective vege- tation and erode, and the dikes may be breached as a result. Sub- sequently, materials within the pond site will erode and enter the surface-water system. As municipal wastewater plants are upgraded, the quality of effluents will improve and the impacts on groundwater will lessen. Further, as rural areas become more densely populated, more of these areas will switch from septic tanks to municipal wastewater treatment systems. The decreased septic tank load will alleviate the associated groundwater degradation problem. However, those areas remaining on septic tanks will pose a continued hazard to local groundwater systems. 6.3.5 Summary of Water Impacts Water impacts are caused by: (1) the water requirements of and effluents from the energy facilities, (2) the water require- ments of and wastewater generated by associated population in- creases, and (3) the coal and oil shale mining processes. Water sources postulated for the Rifle scenario facilities are the White River near Meeker, the Colorado River near Grand Valley, and groundwater from mine dewatering. Depending on whether the energy facilities are high wet cooled, the water re- quirement in acre-ft/yr ranges from 2,786 to 9,494 for the power plant, 6,470 to 9,270 for the 50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant, and 4,360 to 5,660 acre-ft/yr for the in_ situ oil shale facility. Operation of all the facilities could require as much as 24,000 acre-ft/yr. The use of intermediate wet cooling at the expected load factors could reduce this demand by a total of 54 percent. Little water is saved by intermediate cooling of oil shale pro- cesses (29 percent), but savings are substantial (71 percent) when intermediate wet cooling is used on the power plant. The White River near Meeker, the hypothesized source of water for the power plant, has an average flow of 450,000 acre-ft/yr and a mini- mum flow of 173 cfs. 1 The Colorado River above Grand Valley, the hypothesized source of water for the 50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant, has an average flow of 1,955,000 acre-ft/yr and minimum flow of 286 cfs.2 The impact of surface water withdrawal on water availability is not a major local issue, especially for the Colo- rado River. One of the most significant impacts will be the in- terception of groundwater flow in the Piceance Creek Basin by the in situ oil shale facility. perspective and comparison with the water requirements of energy facilities, 173 cfs is equivalent to 125,000 acre-ft/yr. 2Two-hundred and eight-six cfs is equivalent to 207,000 acre-ft/yr. 435 ------- Effluents from the energy facilities, in tons per day, aver- age 641 from the power plant, and 49,300 from the 50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant. Effluents from the oil shale retorts are pri- marily spent shale. Over the long term, spent shale deposits are likely to have an impact on both groundwater and surface water. The hydrology of the upper parts of the affected stream basins will be changed by filling gullies with spent shale. After reveg- etation, natural precipitation will continue to leach trace ele- ments. Some of this leachate may recharge bedrock aquifers, and some will surface at the toe of the piles and enter surface-water systems. Runoff from spent shale piles will be trapped and cycled for process water, but only for the life of the plants. Waste dis- posal ponds at the various energy conversion plant sites will also pose a long-term pollution potential to both groundwater and sur- face water systems. The berms that impound the ponds may ulti- mately be destroyed by erosion, and the pond contents (soluble solids, ash, toxic metals, and other wastes) may be released to surface water. The pond liners are designed to be effective for the life of the plant, but they may not prevent escape of the pond contents over the long term. Leaching of pond contents would re- sult in infiltration into the subsurface and recharge to local aquifers. If the vertical permeability is low, the leachate will migrate laterally, discharge into stream basins, and ultimately contaminate surface streams. Municipal water use in the scenario area will increase to 17,900 acre-ft/yr by the year 2000, due to increased population associated with energy development. The additional water for mu- nicipal use will probably be withdrawn from the Colorado River. Increased population will also cause wastewater increases, total- ing 4.51 million gallons per day by 2000. Scenario municipalities listed in Table 6-23, other than Glenwood Springs and Grand Junc- tion, will require new wastewater treatment facilities for the in- creased wastewater generated. The coal mine for the power plant will use surface-water sources and should not result in the depletion of any regional groundwater aquifers. However, the openings of the coal and oil shale mines and associated dewatering operations may cause aquifer depletion. Interception of the Parachute Creek and the Piceance Creek aquifers by the mine for the oil shale plant may result in the elimination of their base flows. Coal mine subsidence may occur and lead to such effects as topographic and drainage pat- tern changes, disruption of groundwater flow in the overburden, and possibly mixing of fresh and saline aquifers. Finally, runoff will decrease during facility construction, and will remain measurably less than current levels after the fa- cilities are completed due to trapping of this runoff to guard against water quality deterioration. 436 ------- 6.4 SOCIAL AND, ECONOMIC IMPACTS 6.4.1 Introduction The social and economic effects resulting from energy devel- opments in the Rifle scenario will occur primarily in Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties and the city of Grand Junction. At pre- sent, the area population is concentrated in the eastern portion of the counties; the hypothetical energy developments will be lo- cated in the western portion of the counties. Most of the antici- pated social and economic impacts will result either directly or indirectly from the population increase that will come with energy development. This section describes and analyzes existing condi- tions in the area and the changes likely to accompany energy development. 6.4.2 Existing Conditions1 Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties occupy 6,254 square miles and had a combined 1974 population of 21,700, giving the region a population density of 3.5 people per square mile. Colorado's over- all density is 21.2 people per square mile. The population of the area increased in the 1960-70 decade, but not on a comparable level with the state (8.2 percent increase for the two counties as com- pared with 25.8 percent for the state). Speculation and anticipa- tion concerning oil shale production in the area has been a major cause for this population growth. Further, Rio Blanco County's population declined by 6 percent during the decade, primarily due to net outmigration. About one-half of the residents in the two counties live in unincorporated areas. Populations and population changes for the area counties and towns are shown in Table 6-23. Employment by industry in the two counties is shown in Table 6-24. Tourist-related employment is centered in Glenwood Springs, which is on the route to Aspen and Vail. Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties are each governed by a board of county commissioners. Both counties have planning departments and countywide zoning regulations (see Table 6-25). Both also be- long to a council of governments made up of elected officials from these counties and Moffat and Mesa Counties. This council of gov- ernments has focused much of its attention on oil shale development within the area. According to a survey of residents and officials, 1For a detailed history and current description of the sce- nario area, see Ashland Oil, Inc.; Shell Oil Co., Operator. Oil Shale Tract C-b; Socio-economic Assessment, prepared in conjunc- tion with the activities related to lease C-20341 issued under the Federal Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Program. n.p.: March 1976, Vol. I. 437 ------- un o EH w H >< EH EH O H U U H fa > O w cn J 2 fa O H H 05 EH 2 O H EH U o o in1 r- r-~ m o\i r— •* m in o in LO kD rH OO OO rH ^ CO rj< i-H O i-H kQ "3* O kO .».«.•. •. < inrHrHOOOOCN OOO rH in rH CN cnrH I-H ko o ko cn 3 o ^ o 3" r— cn CN oincNcnooin r-~ r— oo inm oo I-H I-H r-~ ^j ^i* oo ro I-H >.•.«..».•. - - ^t rH i— I »* "* CN ^ O rH m CN o oin o kD oo o oo o o o o CD CD CN CD "^ CD CD i — 1 CN kO CD CD CN or— in VD ^ ko kD r— oo CN ^f •..«. >. k. 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G G rH -P •H M cu rd £ m r-n UH rd rH M CU -H -H SH O O U 53 « CO rd O CTJ ^1 ^>1 ^ -P -P U G G CQ d 3 POO — U U >H >H >H >H >H >H >H X >< >H >H >H ^ -P C rj O U 0 U >i G SH rH rd CU CU rH X tn CQ CU G CU rd o s ct; •H ^ G O -H ±> a rH 3 tn 0) M ^ O a o •H to to •H 6 g O 0 C o CU -H X! -P •P rd H Q) 3 > tn id Q) X! SH en !H 0) O O 13 G O >i-H -p en •H to c -H 2 g G 6 s o O 0 u 4H >H O o 0) >i O -P C a a) 3 CO 0 A O ra u u >H 55 13 U CU -H rH -p g H tO - OS rH rH •> G -H (U (U rH O ce; > -H u en G U CU 0) in Q) C O -H G Q 3 -H -P SH O U -H 0) U O C -P • co 3 -p >1 rd 13 ft 3 -P -P CO G CU CU g 10 ap 0 H i-a ai a > td CU r3 D 13 13 G G rd rd 4-> in C •H 0) m g >i CX rH O rd rH £ 0) < > 0) •P Q o 03 rH a (d g c H O •rH Cn • 0) 0 « c H • • - >1 W rH QJ -P -P en (d 3 -H 13 0 C O H tn to cu <] rH (d « X! K CO tn rH -rH •• o Q) 0 £ rH (d 3 O O en -P rH g id g £ • O O (U U H (U CM 0 > Q (U G Q rH 0) (d u >, -P SH Cn G 3 rH 3 O (U O U) C S (D W « 13 G G rH -H rd td rH (U •» 3 U ^ -P C r- nj td c^ 5S -P rH U) m -H ^ O en in en (U en 0) 05 rH rd SH 0) 13 (!) fa to G •H rd rH Pn G •H rd •P G 0 O S • • O rH O U h rH (D > G 0) Q CD 13 O H CJ H H tn > C •H G 13 O rH •H -H Cn 3 a; m rt g rH !H rd O rH • MH 0) m -H 13 r- G 0) Ch D CM rH cd 440 ------- stringent land-use controls are favored in Garfield County and opposed in Rio Blanco County.1 Carbondale, Glenwood Springs, New Castle, Silt, Rifle, and Grand Valley are the incorporated cities in Garfield County. Carbondale, Grand Valley, and Rifle are governed by a mayor and council. All three also have a professional city manager, but only Carbondale has a professional planner. (Carbondale has recently grown because of energy development in nearby Pitkin County.) Public services include water, sewers, public safety, and fire protection.2 Apparently, current services are operating at or near capacity; however, expansion is either under way or being discussed in all three cities. Meeker and Rangely are incorporated cities in Rio Blanco County. Both are governed by a mayor and council. Meeker has a city manager and Rangely has a town administrator, but neither has a professional planner. Public services in Meeker include water, sewers (provided by a separate district), a volunteer fire depart- ment, and public safety. Rangely provides the same services ex- cept that it is just beginning to develop its sewer system. Education for the counties and municipalities is provided by separate school districts. Other special districts provide for sanitation, fire protection, and hospital. 6.4.3 Factors Producing Impacts Two factors associated with energy facilities dominate as the causes of social and economic impacts: manpower requirements and taxes levied on energy facilities. Tax rates are tied to capital costs, and/or the value of coal extracted, and/or the value of en- ergy produced. Taxes which apply to the Rifle scenario facilities are a property tax, sales tax, severance tax, royalty payments for federally owned coal, and oil shale bonus bids. The manpower requirements for each scenario facility are given in Tables 6-26 to 6-28. For the oil shale mines, the manpower re- quirement for operation exceeds the peak construction requirement by two times and, for the coal mine, by eight times. However, the reverse is true for the conversion facilities; peak construction manpower requirements exceed the operation requirement by six times for the power plant and four times for the TOSCO II plant in situ :VTN Colorado, Inc. Socioeconomic and Environmental Land-Use Survey; Moffat, Routt, and Rio Blanco Counties, Colorado, Summary Report. Denver, Colo.: VTN Colorado, 1975, p. 160. 2Sewer service in Carbondale and fire protection in Grand Valley are provided by separate districts. Rifle is now forming a separate fire protection district. 441 ------- TABLE 6-26: MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A 1,000 MEGAWATT POWER PLANT AND ASSOCIATED MINE3 YEAR FROM START 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE MINE 0 31 71 101 163 115 21 0 POWER PLANT 0 126 394 619 763 597 216 0 OPERATION WORK FORCE MINE 0 150 300 600 1,200 1,200 POWER PLANT 0 33 65 121 131 TOTAL IN ANY ONE YEAR 0 157 465 870 1,259 1,377 1,568 1,331 Data are for a 1,000 megawatt-electric power plant and an under- ground coal mine large enough to supply that power plant (about 3.4 million tons per year) and are from Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975; data uncertainty is -10 to +20 percent. TABLE 6-27: MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A 50,000 BAR! DAY TOSCO II PLANT AND ASSOCIATED MINE° PER YEAR FROM START 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE MINE 0 115 313 356 157 0 TOSCO II PLANT 0 43 311 824 1,342 1,322 778 0 OPERATION WORK FORCE MINE 0 591 591 TOSCO II PLANT 0 327 327 TOTAL IN ANY ONE YEAR 0 43 311 939 1,655 1,678 935 918 918 aData are for a 50,000 barrel per day TOSCO II oil shale plant and an underground oil shale mine large enough to supply that plant (about 26 million tons per year) and are from Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975; data uncertainty is -10 to +20 percent. 442 ------- TABLE 6-28: MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A 57,000 BARREL PER DAY IN SITU OIL SHALE PLANT AND ASSOCIATED MINE YEAR FROM START 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE MINE 140 260 550 200 IN SITU PLANT 250 400 960 1,040 1,950 1,000 OPERATION WORK FORCE MINE 270 530 1,090 1,090 1,090 IN SITU PLANT 50 50 130 270 510 510 510 TOTAL IN ANY ONF YEAR 250 400 1,150 1,350 2,900 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,600 Calculated from data on maximum manpower needs given in Ashland Oil, Inc. and Occidental Oil Shale, Inc. Supplemental Material to Modifications to Detailed Development Plans for Oil Shale Tract C-b, prepared for Area Oil Shale Supervisor, July 21,1977. oil shale facilities. In combination, the total manpower require- ment for each oil shale mine-conversion facility combination in- creases from the first year when construction begins, peaks, and then declines as construction activity ceases. There is almost no peak for the coal mine-power plant combination. Peak total man- power is about 1,570 for the power plant, 1,680 for the 50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II plant, and 2,900 for the 57,000 bbl/day Occiden- tal modified in situ plant. For the oil shale facilities, total labor required for operation is about half that required during peak construction. The 50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant and mine require the least labor, 920, for operation and the 57,000 bbl/day plant and mine require the most, 1,600. The property tax and sales tax, which are tied to capital costs of the conversion facilities, and royalty payments and the severance tax which are tied to the value of the coal, and oil shale bonus bids, generate revenue for the local and state govern- ment. The capital costs of the conversion facilities and mines hypothesized for the Rifle scenario are given in Table 6-29. Costs range from about 515 (mine-power plant facility) to 556 mil- lion 1975 dollars (50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant and mine). The property tax, most of which goes to local government, is levied on the cash value of the facility (approximately the total capital cost given in Table 6-29) after construction of the facility is 443 ------- TABLE 6-29: CAPITAL RESOURCES REQUIRED FOR CONSTRUCTION OF FACILITIES (in millions of 1975 dollars)3 FACILITIES Power Plant, 1,000 MWe Associated underground coal mine 3.4 MMtpy In Situ Oil Shale, 57,000 bbl/dayc TOSCO II Oil Shale, 50,000 bbl/dayc MATERIALS AND EQUIPMENT 154 35 315 217 LABOR AND MISCELLANEOUS 154 21 127 191 INTEREST DURING CONSTRUCTION 131 20 111 148 TOTAL 439 76 553 556 MWe = megawatt-electric MMtpy = million tons per year bbl/day = barrels per day Data are adjusted (assuming linearity) to correspond to the fa- cility size hypothesized in the scenario and are from Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation,1975;and Ashland Oil, Inc., and Occidental Oil Shale, Inc. Oil Shale Tract C-b Modifications to Detailed Development Plan. Ashland, Ky.:Ashland Oil,Inc.,1911 At ten percent per year. °Cost includes those for the mine and retort. completed. The sales tax, most of which goes to the state govern- ment, is levied on materials and equipment only (Table 6-29) as these materials and equipment are purchased during construction. The current sales tax rate in Colorado is 3.5 percent and the property tax rate in Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties is about 1.37 percent.1 In Colorado, there is also a 5 percent severance :This is the effective, average property tax rate. The ac- tual rate is computed using a number of assessment ratios, since certain kinds of equipment (e.g., pollution control equipment) are taxed at different rates or may be exempt. 444 ------- tax, most of which goes to the state government, levied on the value of the coal that is mined. Royalty payments for federally owned coal are about 12.5 percent of the coal value,1 of which 50 percent is returned to local and state government. A royalty rate of $1.12 per ton2 is collected on oil shale and bonus bids may be as high as $48 million for a mine supplying a 57,000 bbl/day fa- cility. Half of the royalty and bonus bid payments are designated to go to the state. 6.4.4 Impacts The nature and extent of the social and economic impacts caused by these factors depend on the size and character of the community or communities in which workers and their families live, on the state and local tax structure, and on many other social and economic factors. A scenario, which calls for the development of a power plant and two oil shale plants according to a specified time schedule (see Table 6-1), is used here as a vehicle through which the nature and extent of the impacts are explored. The dis- cussion relates each impact type to the hypothetical scenario and includes population impacts, housing and school impacts, economic impacts, fiscal impacts, social and cultural impacts, and political and governmental impacts. A. Population Impacts The first major energy-related impact on western Colorado will be from construction workers associated with the coal mine and power plant complex, followed in 1978 by oil well drilling personnel. All construction in this scenario will be completed before 1990. Population changes were estimated by means of an economic base model, the employment data from the Bechtel Corpor- ation3 in Table 6-30, and a set of multipliers for construction and for operation phases. Construction-phase multipliers increase from 0.3 in 1975 to 0.7 in 1982 and remain constant thereafter; operation-phase multipliers begin at 0.4 in 1977 and rise to 1.2 by 1986.1 Low multiplier effects are the rule rather than the xThis is the federal government's target rate; actual rates will vary from mine to mine. 2For 30 gallons per ton oil shale, 1974 dollars. 3Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975. *These values were adapted from Crawford, A.B., H.H. Fullerton, and W.C. Lewis. Socio-Economic Impact Study at Oil Shale Develop- ment in the Uintah Basin, for White River Shale Project. Provi- dence, Utah: Western Environmental Associates, 1975, pp. 156-58. 445 ------- TABLE 6-30: CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION EMPLOYMENT FOR RIFLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO, 1975-2000 YEAR 1975 1976 1877 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1990-2000 CONSTRUCTION 157 465 720 1,360 2,930 4,465 4,860 5,570 5,160 3,015 940 2,350 2,730 2,500 1,200 0 0 OPERATION 150 330 665 1,330 1,740 2,150 2,560 2,970 4,300 4,350 4,350 4,700 5,100 5,900 5,900 TOTAL 157 465 870 1,690 3,595 5,795 6,600 7,720 7,720 5,985 5,240 6,700 7,080 7,200 6,300 5,900 5,900 Source: Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model. 2 vols. San Fran- cisco,Calif.:Bechtel Corporation, 1975; and Ashland Oil, Inc., and Occidental Oil Shale, Inc. Oil Shale Tract C-b Modifica- tions to Detailed Development Plan. Ky.: Ashland Oil, Inc., 1977. Ashland, exception in rural areas.1 Further, the overall population esti- mates were distributed spatially among the urban centers in and around Garfield County (Table 6-31 and Figures 6-6 and 6-7). The Grand Valley vicinity at the mouth of Parachute Creek is expected to receive a large amount of the increase in population. A new Summers, Gene F., et al. ropolitan America. Industrial Invasion of Nonmet- New York, N.Y.: Praeger, 1976, pp. 54-59. Population employee multipliers used were 2.05 for construction workers, 2.50 for operation workers, and 2.0 for service workers (all of which take into account two-worker households). They were adapted from Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976. 446 ------- I VD H 0 o o CN in CTi H 0 CTi CTi rH m 00 rH O 00 ^ in r- rH p^, O H EH U O O O O o o m c> rH n •.«.». r- vo CN o o o o in o r^ CT» ro r^ in CN o o o o o in in oo CN ^ ^ k. r^ in CN o o o m o m i G rH H Id CD CD rH rH ^ C7) Id « CD C H CD rd 3 0 S PS « PS 0 in co «. V£> rH O in CTi in rH O O in K in rH o o ^ <" rH 0 O CTi in rH o o CN in rH 0 T3 O rH CD ti S rH CU rH G G id •H M-l (d CD M MH -H M rH 3 H PS CJ U PS id 0 O in >. r~- CN o o o^ ^o CN o in CN •» \£> CN O 0 CN n CN 0 in CN oo rH 0 o in rH rH rd O EH 0 0 00 •. in ^, o o r- CN ^ o o m •. CTl in 0 o CM ^r in 0 0 CN cr\ 0 0 0 in rd CU SH o •rl 4-1 rl g O O M O 0) o •H G -H XI CD 4-> 4-1 O Id rH rH G CD 3 - r-l CX CX Q rrj Ln eX (D CN e+i o -t-1 H 4-1 4-> rd C c£ CD CJ ex ^ CD CD o CO CO O id G O rd CD O H in rd CD T3 3 -^ S G m id G id rd CD -I-1 C CD CU rd x; u 4-> >H CU CD 4-) 4-> ex id G in CD m o o • ex SH O U C -H • O CO CU TJ 4-> G id id g •H - 4-1 O CO g CD •H CO tn rd X! 0) - (D CO rH > id id cu n x; xl CD 4-1 CD CU rH CD 0) CO O X! CO en CD X! 4-1 CO 4-> CO 4-1 rd CD U CD 4H 4-> M m co id CU CD O g-H •H 447 ------- 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Total Rural Rifle Glenwood Springs Grand Valley 2000 FIGURE 6-6: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR GARFIELD COUNTY, 1980-2000 en 20_ c (0 in O G O •H rH 0 • Total Meeker Rangely Rural 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 6-7: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR RIO BLANCO COUNTY, 1980-2000 448 ------- town development discussed in some reports is not anticipated in this scenario.'1 The population of Garfield County is expected to increase more than 65 percent to almost 28,000 people by 2000. Rifle should grow three-fold to 6,800, becoming larger than Glenwood Springs by 1990. Grand Valley is expected to increase from 360 to 4,400, a twelve- fold increase. Rio Blanco County is expected to grow 200 percent by 1990, with much of the growth taking place in Rangely and Meeker (Figure 6-6). Meeker is projected to increase to 7,900 people by 2000. For the two-county area, the 22,150 population increase from 1975 to 2000 represents a doubling of the population.2 In general, the population increase in the scenario is ex- pected to take place primarily in and near the established towns. Outside the two-county area, service employment will increase in Grand Junction, the major service center in western Colorado. A 46 percent population increase is expected in the Grand Junction area as a result of the energy development hypothesized in this scenario (Table 6-31). Age-sex breakdowns of the projected populations in Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties help in predicting changes in the housing and educational needs of the area. The new employment was assumed to be distributed by age as found in recent surveys in the West.3 The resulting age-sex distribution in Table 6-32 shows an in- crease in the 25-34 age group and, through 1990, the 0-5 age group. The 35-54 age group increases after 1990. In addition, the rela- tive proportion of males to females is high during the 1980-1995 period because of single males associated with energy development. B. Housing and School Impacts Housing demand and school enrollment can be estimated by em- ploying the information in Tables 6-31 and 6-32, and assuming that children in the 6-13 age group are in elementary school, and those in the 14-16 age group are in secondary school (see Table 6-33 and 1 See the uncontrolled urban development pattern in THK Asso- ciates. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry; Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974, pp. 74-75. 2For a scenario which projects greater population growth, see Ibid., pp. 75-77. 3Data adapted from Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Re- gional Commission, 1976, p. 38. 449 ------- TABLE 6-32: PROJECTED AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION FOR GARFIELD AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES, 1975-2000a AGE Female 6 5 -over 55-64 35-54 25-34 20-24 17-19 14-16 6-13 0- 5 Total Male 6 5 -over 55-64 35-54 25-34 20-24 17-19 14-16 6-13 0- 5 Total 1975 .055 .051 .113 .059 .033 .030 .031 .078 .046 .496 .050 .049 .116 .058 .031 .032 .034 .084 .047 .501 1980 .031 .032 .091 .097 .037 .027 .024 .067 .052 .458 .029 .038 .117 .123 .052 .033 .026 .070 .053 .541 1985 .028 .029 .085 .096 .036 .033 .028 .080 .057 .472 .026 .031 .100 .123 .044 .035 .029 .082 .058 .528 1990 .024 .026 .082 .107 .038 .033 .027 .077 .060 .474 .022 .027 .098 .134 .044 .035 .028 .079 .060 .527 1995 .024 .032 .104 .087 .049 .033 .030 .077 .046 .482 .024 .033 .120 .101 .051 .034 .030 .078 .046 .517 2000 .028 .041 .116 .093 .053 .036 .031 .067 .025 .490 .028 .044 .120 .101 .054 .036 .031 .067 .025 .506 Source: Table 6-31 and data from Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C. :Old West Regional Commission, 1976, p. 38. aTotals do not always sum to 1.0 because of rounding. 450 ------- TABLE 6-33: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL ENROLLEMNT IN GARFIELD AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES, 1975-2000a YEAR 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS 6,600 12,300 11,900 13,300 13,800 14,900 NUMBER OF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL CHILDREN 3,500 4,630 5,960 6,370 6,490 5,740 NUMBER OF SECONDARY SCHOOL CHILDREN0 1,410 1,690 2,100 2,200 2,500 2,700 Source: a Tables 6-31 and 6-32. Debeque and Roaring Fork school districts were ex- cluded from calculations. bAges 6-13. Ages 14-16. These age group assumptions result in a possible underestimate of at most 25 percent (current enrollment is just over 6,700) , but relative sizes are indicative of impacts. Figure 6-8). Based on these projections, expected housing demand nearly doubles almost immediately, indicating that about 5,700 new units will be needed in the Garfield-Rio Blanco County area by 1980. Growth in demand is somewhat slower thereafter, but 2,600 additional new homes will be needed between 1980 and 2000. The distribution of housing estimated in Table 6-33 largely reflects temporary construction worker households living in mobile homes through 1990, particularly between 1975 and 1980. Even more families are likely to live in mobile homes if local housing construction cannot keep up.1 Given existing infrastructure, the Housing construction in western Colorado is not keeping up with demand. See Bolt, Ross M., Dan Luna, and Lynda A. Watkins. Boom Town Financing Study, 2 vols. Denver, Colo.: Colorado De- partment of Local Affairs, 1976. 451 ------- 20 w T3 £ (0 W 3 O XI -P (U O M C W T3 C fC TJ rH O ^ 0) w d o 15 - 10 - 5 - Households Elementary Secondary 1975 I 1980 1985 I 1990 I 1995 2000 FIGURE 6-8: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IN GARFIELD AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES, 1980-2000 452 ------- majority of mobile homes will be concentrated in the Grand Valley area, where 63 of the present 87 dwellings are mobile homes. Rifle, where mobile homes currently account for less than 10 per- cent of available housing, is expected to maintain a relatively low percentage if the local building industry attempts to meet demands there.1 School enrollment impacts will vary between elementary and high school over time. Elementary enrollment is expected to peak at 6,500 in 1995 (85 percent more than the 1975 level). The 380 classrooms suggests that some excess capacity is available2 (Table 6-34). A 29 percent rise in enrollment between 1975 and 1980 can be absorbed on an overall classroom basis, but impacts will be greater at some locations than at others. For example, nearly one- half of all new enrollment by 1980 is expected in Rangely, which in 1974 had an average of just over six students in each of its 67 classrooms. To maintain an average of 21 pupils per classroom, 10 new classrooms will be needed by 1980, 60 percent of them in elementary schools. However, by 1985, Rangely will not need any of the 25 additional classrooms. In the other districts, enroll- ment and classroom needs increase steadily, creating a $7 million increase in operating expenditures by 2000. Teachers, bus drivers, maintenance, and supplies, as well as the purchase of new school buses, will be in addition to the construction costs. The esti- mates in Table 6-34 suggest that the additional enrollment during the 1980's and early 1990's may well be accommodated by split ses- sions or temporary facilities, keeping capital expenditures for permanent facilities to a minimum. However, this may be difficult in Rangely, where the peak enrollment in 1980 will be 23 percent above the 2000 peak. C. Economic Impacts Agriculture now dominates the economy of Rio Blanco County (35 percent of all 1972 earnings).3 However, as energy develop- ment proceeds, the economy will shift to mining and extraction. In Garfield County, the mixed tourism-related local economy will shift to mining and service and local government employment *Data on December, 1974 housing are taken from Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts and Federal Assis- tance in Energy Development Impacted Communities in Federal Region VIII. Denver, Colo.: Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975. 2Ibid. 3U.S., Department of Commerce, Bure-au of Economic Analysis. "Local Area Personal Income." Survey of Current Business, Vol. 54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75. 453 ------- o u ffl O H Q J W H CO EH U PM CO O O O o (N W U H to en EH EH M U U (0 H H rH & PH rH EH EH O H H Q Q m J JH cr> O EH -H O 2 U O -H CO U —' ro I ^o W w u ~ QS en 3 V-t EH 10 M rH Q rH Z O Id TI Cx X	rH (N CN CN r* r- oo CN rH ro ro ^o ro "H rH in (N CO rH r- (7> r^ CO O CN CN (M rH rH rH rH I f~- VD ro VO CN fN rH o in m in o in co m oo vo co CM in r- CN in \£> r- in o o m in in m oo rH r I r-t ID CN rH in o m o m o ["••• oo oo ON CTN o ch a\ ON o> ON o 0) iH M-4 -H ^ o o o in o rH fN fN CN in o CN vo m P-H oo r- o o U m O VD in VD VD rH rH rH ro o rH m a O O fN ON rH CN CN CN ro ^" in m 1 O fN f^ fN rH rH rH o m in m in o Cfi VO VO fN in CO rH CN VD O O O in o o o m r- O VO ro fN I ^ ro in o m o m o r- oo oo ^ o\ o O> ON ON Ch ON O >1 rrj JJj C rH (0 (Tj o m o o o o o o o o ro ^ m rH ro f^ ro ro ro m CN o o o> 1 CN O ro rH O rH \| o o m o o^ o ro^r «x> rH fN CN CN CTN r>- \r> vo CO ro rH rH • o • • • rH ^ o o r^ o ro ^r oo co oo 0i 01 I so ) r-ro ro ro o in in in in o O P* VO rH kD rH r- 10 vo oo oo ON m o o o in r* rH m m ^ m o m o in o r- co co ON oi o CT\ O\ CT\ ON ON O O> ON ON O >1 0) CP c a; 10 a E rH (0 10 IH ^ CP CD O TI IH 01 CU b u e • 0 0 C rH O O u u 1> 0 - .-H -O u o o o W S 01 M 10 M (J M > c en o tu •H -H tr JJ S'c D ' g c e o o •H r_) 4J (0 TJ In 0) JJ JJ to O •rl 10 c a •H E e IH t >i u- >< VJ IT 0) 'M C 01 Ed C Id rH (D 10 -H VH H 01 «H TI 0 OJ IH b 0- • m w c • o D -H E 0) 0 £8 pv 31 rH C ^ 0 MH -rl • JJ 0) 01 10 IH U rl 10 -H JJ ^ to (0 M-i -iH JJ O C nj H •a c g O TI JJ -H < C JJ to r- •H 1 IH Lfl •C p- C 01 Ed rt a o T) JJ (D - U £ 3 a-c O Id to O >, 1-3 M 10 -T) C C •H O E tU 0 U) IH 73 b. C 10 E O >! IJH 10 •0 C Q) CD C E •H CJ (0 rH JJ Id 0 IH O K (0 CO S JJ to O O U U 10 n. q^ to C 10 •H JJ a c Dj E IH rH (U O a M C 0 Id 0 IT) * - C IN O t/> -H JJ UH ro O rH 3 O 10 0. o- C H JJ C H & JJ C E c- OJ ^ 8 u D ^ C o D- £ to CO S • (U 0 c CO C t- o 0 "u to tn u C rH O rH 0 C TJ O •H LA to p- to 01 H rH O O JJ u DI a c 4J JJ C CO O rH TJ IU •H q CO -H 01 M >* cu ja 0) - J= rH JJ P- O\ O rH M JJ 0) ro a u u E O -H C 3 Qi ------- related to population growth. Major economic benefits will result from employment, and income in the energy industries and from tax revenues of various types (Table 6-35, Figures 6-9 and 6-10). The scenario development should result in a 13 percent higher median household income, while during construction the median is 28 per- cent above the 1975 level1 (see Figure 6-9). The principal change in the overall income distribution is an increase in the relative number of households earning $15,000 to $25,000 (Figure 6-10). The general increase in business activity should be roughly proportional to the population gains in each locality. The tempor- ary benefits from construction workers and their somewhat higher incomes will accrue primarily to the nearby towns of Rifle, Meeker, Rangely, and Grand Valley. Some commercial growth should occur in Grand Junction as a result of the Rifle-Meeker area development, but other development in western Colorado is likely to be a bigger source of growth in that city. Local governments will receive tax benefits, although mu- nicipal services will experience shortfalls early in the period. School districts will have little difficulty after the early rush of new residents, partly because their taxing areas include the en- ergy facilities with their relatively large valuations. Based on an enrollment increase of 4,000 students in all districts within two counties by 1995, nearly $10 million in new school construc- tion will be required in the area. Property tax receipts should keep up with this need. In municipalities, where energy facilities do not add directly to tax revenues, meeting needs for public fa- cilities may be more difficult. Water and sewage treatment facilities are among the primary problems faced by any small community experiencing a significant population influx. In terms of capital expenditures, these two items will account for 75 percent of all nonschool expenditures needed to serve additional population in the scenario area.2 Within the area, excess capacity exists only in Grand Junction's 1These income impacts will be in addition to national trends in income growth from productivity gains and other causes. 2THK Associates. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry; Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974, p. 30; see also Lindauer, R.L. Solutions to Economic Impacts on Boomtowns Caused by Large Energy Development. Denver, Colo.: Exxon Co., USA, 1975. pp. 43-44. 455 ------- W H fe DH s OH O § m H PS EH W H O Q O O H ^ O m U o !3 CT> H rH Q » W W EH W U H O D (* O CM U ro I w'tn INCOM dollar J rH < — DIAN 3EHOLD COME W i— » ^-> & —* L_J S o H K O 0 Q Od 0 2 M » § > ,o H O O O O O O in o o oo r> r> ^ (Ti CJ> CTi O O CN in m rn ^ •st lH rH rH i-H rH H ^t 00 V£> H CN CN rH CN CTl CTi CTi CTi rH rH O O O O in co m CN in in CO CO ^D o o r^- CN m m m ro ro en en H CN CN CM rH I-H m m m ro H rH rH rH rH iH ro ^f cn ^f v£> VD CTi t~~ CO CTi en en O O O O O O cn CN H H cn cn co r^ cn cn co CO o o o o o o ro m vD ro rH I-H co m <£> ^ v£> vo o o o o o o co m o m in in r^ m ^o vo >x> ^£i 0 O O O 0 O cn o m o co co ro cn o o cn cn H O H rH O O in o m o m o r~ co co cn cn o cn cn cn cn cn o rH H rH rH rH CN cn tn in g •• C - 0) 0 • CU C g SH U U O O 4H • 4-) CJ Q cu tn c cu x: c H SH ^ 4-> -H rd C x; o 4H tn • in 4-i O rd in SH tn S SH 0) C 3 rd ^4 -H rd rH SH X! 0) • rH o tn SH o 3 [-- pa cn rH - cu o •• SH tn 0) (1) g -H 6 -U O £ U 3 0 4H CJ O T3 4-1 C C rd OJ g tn 4-1 CU SH -H rd 4-) 0,-rH CU U Q v - tn . - tn ff, • Cn D S tn g o - SH tn 4H CU 4-1 £ rd (U 4J y cn rd 4-> SH 0 0) 4H SH rd cn isQ in cn r~ i— i en r-H C •H SH O CU 4H g o rd O 4-1 G rd H Q T) r-H •• o cu x: u cu SH in 3 3 O O O S rd T! 5 0) in u r>. -H • cn > 4-1 rH SH SH 0) O O cn fa. 4-> CU T3 PH T3 C CU rd rH 4-) rd rd ** C rH tn -H 4H SH h a cu •H ,M " SH cu T! O rH C £ -H (d 4H C 0 * O SH CN -H PJ CN 4-> rd SH • SH CU CU CU ^ Cu SH - O O ro ;g r~ ^ en to C rH SH O CU -H • A^ 4-J CU SH U U O 3 •H ^ SH 4H 4J 4n c^ tn O O C •H O tn 4-) o C u •H ^ 4-1 SH • a 4-) x; •H cn o SH C SH (A O rd O 0) 4-> tn C SH 0) cu O f! 6 4H C -P SH C tn 0) O CU >--H g 0 4J O 3 C £3 -H •H fd •• SH 4J • 4-1 C U tn 3 • -H O P SH 0 CU XI tn 4-> IS ^3 CU C C rd 4J cn rd 4J Xi C 4-1 0) TJ tn-H C tn •H CU K M tn cu tn g rd -H 4-1 -. O tTi m c O • rH 0. in - rd ^O r- C en o rH -H _p "* ^ C X! O -H -H SH in 4-i in in •H -H g rrj g o cu • u g w o cu rH U CU rd C >i C -H O O rH •H CU CX tn g g 0) rd CU & in £ 4J CU O in xi -H CU 4-> 4-1 IS rd CU SH T3 > CU rH rd O, o x: o 456 ------- 16,000 _ 15,000 - 10,000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 6-9: MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME, GARFIELD AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES, 1970-2000 457 ------- w M H O Q more than 25,000 15,000- 25,000 12,000- 15,000 10,000- 12,000 8,000- 10,000 6,000- 8,000 4,000- 6,000 less than 4,000 .114 285 .119 .093 .089 .083 078 .139 • • . • • • • * .128 .388 .119 .074 .072 055 .055 .090 • • •* • • • .096 .365 .1«51 .089 .091 .066 .066 .105 • • • * .091 .372 .094 .091 .063 J065 .100 .092 .3/2 .096 .089 .061 .065 .098 .092 .375 .132 .096 .089 .061 .065 .098 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 6-10: PROJECTED ANNUAL INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR GARFIELD AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES, 1975-2000 (in 1975 dollars) 458 ------- water and sewage treatment facilities,1 suggesting that the com- munities in Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties will be forced to expand their systems before the population arrives (1975-1980, Table 6-36), or have insufficient capacities during construction booms. Other capital needs, especially health care, will demand sizable capital outlays by 1980. Only Rangely's population will decline in the postconstruction phase after 1980. In terms of overall expenditures, per capita costs tend to rise as a town's population increases because more services are provided; however, much of the increase is normally for capital expenditures and debt service.2 Based on an average of $120 per capita, the additional operating expenditures required of munic- ipal governments in the scenario area are shown in Table 6-37. Meeker and Grand Valley will need 4 and 12 times, respectively, their 1975 annual budgets by 1990. Particular needs likely to be generated by population growth are full-time fire protection to assist existing volunteer departments and an expansion of county sheriff and municipal police forces and vehicles.3 D. Fiscal Impacts The major source of revenue from energy development will be the property tax on energy facilities. Over $1.6 billion (Table 6-29) will be invested in energy facilities by 1990 ."* Assuming that current mill levies are maintained, the property tax on these facilities will generate nearly $36 million in new revenues annu- ally by 1990. Table 6-38 details these levies, and Table 6-39 shows the resulting property tax revenues by jurisdiction. Valu- ations are based on investment costs in'the Bechtel Energy Supply Planning Model.5 fountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Im- pacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted Communities in Federal Region VIII. Denver, Colo.: Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975. 2THK Associates. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry; Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974, p. 41. 3Ashland Oil, Inc.; Shell Oil Co., Operator. Oil Shale Tract C-b; Socio-Economic Assessment, prepared in conjunction with the activities related to lease C-20341 issued unde'r the Federal Proto- type Oil Shale Leasing Program. n.p.: March 1976, Vol. I, pp. VIII-34 to VIII-35. 4All figures are in 1975 dollars. 5Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vol. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975. 459 ------- H CO w u H CO U O H O J O pa CN o i H — H EH CO P 2 SH 21 p rd W O rH PJ U H X 0 W O 13 U J is m EH hi en H CQ rH Cu «3< m m r^cM k£> en r- m i-H CN CO in H CO rH 0 r- »* co VD 00 •• CM 00 rH 0 rH i-D CM - «. CO i — 1 CN ^O en vo c? r~^ rH O i — 1 ^3* r- CM vo en r- in rH ^o en r- m rH in CM "* ^J1 0 O •• «• CO rH m vo 1 — 1 ^J* rH O •. V CO rH 00 rH cn o r- CM m CM CO QJ Cn rd \|5 QJ CO £ rd SH SH QJ QJ QJ -P x! rH rd 4-) 4H £ O •rl rt CO QJ Cn rd S QJ CO QJ -d rH rrj > SH in QJ QJ T) -P .£ £ rd -P rd IS O SH O •* CN oo co in in rH •^ cn >£> CO CM •31 cn U3 CO CM CN CO in rH CO rH CN 00 IT} rH CO H CM CO in rH CO rH CO QJ CP co rd CT1 15 £ QJ •H 0) CO £ •d -Q O SH H O QJ Q) 5 -P X! £ rd -P Q) 5 O rH o OO 00 T >£> O CO o co rH CN CO in rH CO H CN 00 in H CO rH co m kO CM cn co oo o co ro 1 1 CO I""* •"* CO "* co «. «. CO CN CO QJ Cn rd \|5 QJ CO £ rd SH SH SH QJ QJ QJ -P x; X fd -P QJ IS O QJ a CO CN i>D ^< in ^ r~ CN •^ cn VD CO CM ^r cn \D CO CN CN 00 in rH CO rH o cn O CO CM r- - I CN 1 co in 00 CO co cn - •. 00 CM QJ Cn rd J5 QJ CO •d c rd ja >i SH SH H QJ QJ QJ -p x: Cn fd 4-> C S O fd W • ffi CO O EH QJ 0 rH o QJ rd " QJ X! rH CO CO J2 iH U • -H rd CO O QJ "d QJ C SH QJ rd O £ MH O rH 4J o rd OU13 0 -H Q) - CO -P o >i rd ^O XI rH r~- QJ QJ • rt rH SH •CO- QJ CO xj d O -P SH -P O QJ -P -P O -P £ -P fd 3 Pn O CO £ QJ -P rd 0 C Cn o> CO g -P 0 QJ COO Q) O rH g - QJ QJ iH > SH cn Q) •H m Q 3 U1 13 QJ rH fl SH id rd C -P O CO £ -H -ri rd -P co rH -H >1 QJ ^ > — i "d fd -p cd £ £ ^ QJ £ S fd -P -P U rd - rd QJ £ QJ SH 0 g -P -H H Q) 4-) rd •rH o o CO CO (CtJ fH ' ffi CO EH SH rd rH •• rH • 0 O 13 rH O in U r^- cn v i — i SH 0) O > -P £ QJ 13 Q QJ -P fd • H ^) ^H d £ 3 -H -p CO Q) SH QJ rd CO D QJ u T3 SH £ 3 fd O K41 CO M Q) 3 P cn •H rH m -P rd QJ fd £ rH CnrH • O rH rd 3 O -H < 5 QJ £ Cn QJ O H QJ co QJ rt • - 0 >d H co co £ rd Q) •• rd £ -P >i • O rd SH QJ SH -H -H -P QJ -P O co - -P -H O 3 ^r H -H rH QJ £ U Qj-r-) £ in 13 •=? rd -P -^ O v £ CO .— . rH -P QJ rd £ >H -P QJ rd •H O QJ SH co CO QJ 'd O QJ rd XJ 0 co SH •W > ' — 13 +J QJ £ £ U rd QJ -H U H CO SH O -P QJ QJ QJ QJ QJ - SH CN ^ -P CO -P CO • — qj QJ £ O • 0 SH — •H QJ -P +> QJ £ rd QJ QJ m o SH — SH O Q) QJ £ QJ SH O •H f» 13 -P — ' £ U rd Q) co -P rX co O SH X. SH 0 M QJ 5 rd QJ QJ U SH -H CO -H rH QJ UH n 'd 3 3-0, i U -P 13 £ £ £ •H QJ rd O SH SH - Q) QJ -, x; QJ-P -P £ O m QJ ft ^ U 460 ------- S3 W s w > o o 04 w SH fO U O rH H O O 23 O -d D CN 5 I m o r^ PH OO CTi O cn iH pL4 rH 4H co - o W CO Pi w cn D H id EH EH G H 3 ro Q D CO s o d w u o PH XI X O 4J w u Z G O W Pi CU PH rH O Q S m hQ < r- < CTl 2 Q rH O r3 H W CU EH M > M CL) O P 2 X> Q H rl w o I Pi W K/ PH H W S CO O K^ (=- H P^ j-i PH CO Q O 0 W rJ CJ >H w 1-q ij < t> Q 2 O RIFLE i Pi H CN V£> •si1 CN 00 H r~- CN <5\ OO n o PQ H 4-> - C 4J CU (U SH Cn SH o m oo cn rH U3 "sj" «* ^ in kD O l£l O ^J1 r-- r-~ ro vo co m m vo ^£> ix> ^ 00 CN O 00 CN -sj" r- cn o rH rH OO rH OO in •^ in VD p- oo CN -cr ^r ^r ••* O O ^f £> in o oo o rH ro -^r m m o in o m o oo oo cr\ cr\ o (Ti O> (Ti CTi O rH rH rH rH CN CO to G £ O ^ c cu A! 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C o •H 4J (0 U T3 W iH CU r] CJi •H ffi 462 ------- TABLE 6-39: PROPERTY TAX REVENUES FROM ENERGY FACILITIES (in millions of 1975 dollars) .JURISDICTION Rio Blanco Schools Rio Blanco General Garfield Schools Garfield General Total 1978 2.4 1.0 0 0 3.4 1980 5.0 2.0 0 0 7.0 1983 14. 0 5.7 0 0 19.7 1985 18.2 7.5 .3 .1 26.1 1990 18.2 7.5 7.2 3.0 35.9 Source: Tables 6-29 and 6-38. In comparison to the industrial plants, valuations of related residential and commercial property are negligible, adding only about one percent to the above figures. However, for some juris- dictions (such as Grand Junction), residential and commercial de- velopment will be the only source of new property taxes. The average tax rates in Table 6-38 can be applied to popula- tion increments in the impacted areas. At the same time, it is convenient to add another population-related source: fees for ser- vices such as water and sewer. If Grand Junction data are indic- ative of the entire area, $61.60 per year per capita in fees may be added to the tax revenues. Applying these rates to the antic- ipated population increases, revenues may be estimated for the jurisdictions in the region (Table 6-40). Next to the property tax, the biggest local revenue will come from sharing federal mineral revenues, because the hypothetical oil shale mine is located on leased federal land. The royalty rate is 12C per ton (1974 dollars) for shale containing 30 gallons of shale oil per ton and may be adjusted to reflect changes in the price of crude.1 For a 50,000 bbl/day facility, annual payments would be $3,120,000. If royalty rates are applied at the same rate to the shale oil recovered from the in situ facility, an additional $3,550,000 per year would be collected. Also, the bonus bid lnFact Sheet" accompanying Department of the Interior news release, November 29, 1973. 463 ------- TABLE 6-40: REVENUES FROM RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL PROPERTY TAXES AND MUNICIPAL UTILITY FEES, SELECTED JURISDICTIONS (above 1975 levels in millions of 1975 dollars) JURISDICTION Rio Blanco Schools Rio Blanco General Garfield Schools Garfield General Grand Junction Schools Grand Junction General 1980 1.33 1.21 .36 .24 .92 .65 1985 1.17 1.07 1.62 1.09 1.99 1.40 1990 1.28 1.17 2.36 1.59 3.18 2.23 Source: Based on population increase data from Table 6-32, and per capita school and general fund tax given on Table 6-38, and a water and sewer fee of $61.60 per capita. payment will add a much larger amount to this. The highest bonus bid so far received is the $41,300 per acre offer obtained from the Standard Oil of Indiana/Gulf venture in 1974.l Assuming this to be indicative of what could be collected from a commercially viable project, and applying it to both oil shale facilities,2 the projected bonus bid is $53 million, which is payable in five annual installments starting with the bid date. (The following allocations assume a bid date of 1979 for the 50,000 bbl/day mine and 1984 for the 57,000 bbl/day facility.) Recently passed legisla- tion allocates one-half of federal mineral revenues to the state of origin, with one-fourth of that amount intended for mitigating local impacts. Altogether, the state share of oil shale bonus bids would be $2.5 million per year during 1979-1983, and $2.8 million during 1984-1988. The state and local share of royalty payments JU.S., Federal Energy Administration. Project Independence Blueprint Final Task Force Report—Potential Future Role of Oil Shale; Prospects and Constraints. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1974, Appendix B, p. 17. 2The mine-site for the 50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II plant is 606 acres. For the 57,000 bbl/day in situ process, only a portion of the shale that is retorted is mined. Since the nature of the bo- nus bid in that case has not been established, this calculation scales the bonus bid to the 50,000 bbl/day plant and sums the two. 464 ------- TABLE 6-41: NEW SALES TAX REVENUES (millions of 1975 dollars) JURISDICTION13 State of Colorado (3%) Rio Blanco County (0.5%) City of Grand Junction (0.5%) Total 1980 1.99 .21 .08 2.28 1985 1.83 .12 .11 2.06 1990 2.57 .14 .16 2.87 aAssuming 56 percent of income goes to retail sales. Revenues geographically distributed proportionally to population. These are the only jurisdictions in the region which currently levy a sales tax. would be about $3 million per year beginning in 1983 for the TOSCO II facility and continuing for the mine life. For the in situ facility, a comparable royalty rate would be $3.5 million per year beginning in 1990. State income and sales taxes are the major sources of revenue tied to personal income. Colorado's income tax, which reaches 8 percent of taxable income for incomes above $10,000, implies col- lections of $848 per household based on the projected 1980 income distribution, and $794 per household based on the steady-state dis- tributions. Expected income tax revenues are $1.9 million in 1978, $5.4 million in 1980, $6.6 million in 1983, $5.9 million in 1985, and $8.9 million in 1990. Sales taxes are detailed in Table 6-41. Some undetermined portion of this additional revenue is overesti- mated because some of the immigrating workers will leave other parts of Colorado to work on these energy projects. Finally, all state and local revenues can be summarized by jurisdiction. These are shown in Table 6-42 and can be compared with anticipated expenditures for these jurisdictions. It is JU.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. The Sta- tistical Abstract of the United States. Washington, D.C.: Govern- ment Printing Office,1975,Table435. We assume a standard deduc- tion of $4,000 per household. 465 ------- TABLE 6-42: SUMMARY OF REVENUES DUE TO ENERGY FACILITIES (millions of 1975 dollars) JURISDICTION o State of Colorado School Districts Rio Blanco Garfield Grand Junction County and Municipal Rio Blanco Garfield Grand Junction 1980 9.9 6.3 .36 .92 3.4 .24 .72 1985 13.3 19.4 1.9 2.0 8.7 1.2 1.5 1990 14.9 19.5 9.6 3.2 8.8 4.6 2.4 Including portions of royalties earmarked for local assistance. immediately apparent that school districts in Rio Blanco County will derive substantial fiscal advantages from the projected develop- ments.1 For example, in 1990, new operating expenditures in Meeker and Rangely will be at a rate of $4.7 million per year (the sum of expenses for Meeker and Rangely from Table 6-34), while new reve- nues for these districts total $19.5 million (Table 6-42). Mill levies could be reduced and capital requirements still be met on a pay-as-you-go basis. Garfield County districts will also enjoy surpluses eventually but may face deficits before the in situ oil shale facility comes on-line in 1990. For example, in 1985 the Rifle and Grand Valley districts will need an additional $4.9 mil- lion (the sum of expenses for Rifle and Grand Valley from Table 6-34) over current operating budgets, while new revenues only reach $1.9 million (Table 6-42). Further, $2 million in new fa- cilities will be needed by that date. The prospect of $9.6 mil- lion per year in new revenues for Garfield County schools after 1990 may provide a basis for borrowing in the interim.2 County and municipal governments in these counties show short-falls for capital Compare Table 6-42 with Table 6-34. 2Note that some of the state government's royalty' share is earmarked for local impact mitigation. 466 ------- expenditures until 1990. Grand Junction (in Mesa County) occupies an intermediate position, with moderate revenue increases ($1.5 million by 1985, $2.4 million by 1990). If Colorado state government maintains its current rate of expenditures ($1,125 per capita), and if no more than one-fourth of the people new to this area come from out of state, then the state government will experience positive fiscal benefits. Any immigration rate much greater than 25 percent would lead to new expenses exceeding new revenues. E. Social and Cultural Impacts The primary societal effects of energy resource development in western Colorado should be related to the economic changes in the area. Shifts from an agricultural and tourism base to a resource-extraction base will alter the political base and social relations of the population over the long term. Social conflict between newcomers and long-time residents is most likely in Rio Blanco County where newcomers will outnumber oldtimers before 1980. Other conflicts between these groups of residents are likely, at least in the short term, because of the strain put on local ser- vices by the population increase.1 A large cluster of mobile homes may prove to be undesirable to both inhabitants and close neighbors. Finally, the cost of living generally rises faster than the incomes of long-time residents; this is especially true for persons on fixed incomes who compose a significant proportion of the present population. However, in general, social impacts in the Rifle area will probably be less severe than was thought a few years ago.2 The quality of life as perceived by people in the Rifle area would undergo some changes because of energy development. The pre- sent residents like the small community size and environmental quality of the area but some are dissatisfied with the range of :A particular problem in rapid growth communities is a degen- eration of telephone service, suggesting that private industry also has a lead time problem in coping with new demands from growth. See U.S., Federal Energy Administration. Project Independence Blueprint Final Task Force Report—Potential Future Role of Oil Shale; Prospects and Constraints. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1974, p. 246. 2Compare Ibid., pp. 238-58; and University of Denver, Research Institute; Resource Planning Associates; and Socioeconomic Asso- ciates. Socioeconomic and Secondary Environmental Impacts of West- ern Energy Resource Development, Working Paper, for the Council on Environmental Quality. Denver, Colo.: University of Denver Re- search Institute, 1976, pp. VII-1 through VII-11. 467 ------- shopping and entertainment facilities.1 Thus, the population growth expected with energy development, especially during the con- struction phase, will have a negative effect on the area's quality of life for some residents, but others will welcome the accompany- ing increase in the number and range of goods and services avail- able locally. For example, educational services for adults are likely to be expanded by Colorado Northwestern Community College in Rangely. Rangely and Meeker will be most impacted by 1980 (in this scenario) , after which a new stability will be difficult to achieve until after 1990. The shift in the economic base from agriculture and tourism will be indicative of the shifts in life- styles for people in the area 'as more seasonally stable industries replace the dependence on the traditional lines of work. F. Political and Governmental Impacts As shown in the preceding analysis, energy development in Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties will lead to demands for new pub- lic facilities and services. Communities in the two counties will be forced to expand their water and sewer systems before the popu- lation arrives; capital will be needed for health care facilities; and fire and police protection will have to expand. Each of these demands requires increasing government activity and expenditures at the local level. However, a major problem for the communities is their lack of planning resources and infrastructure to prepare for and manage rapid population growth. This lack, together with the anticipated expenditure needs discussed above, suggests that fiscal and planning shortfalls are likely. Although school districts and the two counties will enjoy long- term revenue benefits from the projected development, the Garfield County districts will face deficits before the energy facilities are assessed and placed on the tax rolls. That is, front-end fi- nancial problems and the manner in which revenues are distributed from both the state and the counties will greatly influence the net fiscal status of the localities and districts during the short- term construction period, especially those outside the immediate vicinity of a mining activity. The creation of a new town or plan- ned subdivisions financed largely by industry near Grand Valley could alleviate many of the problems anticipated for that community. Rifle and Meeker will be able to handle the impact to a greater ex- tent primarily because of their expected growth as service centers. The service-related growth of these two municipalities will help to balance the population pressure in western Colorado and will pro- vide the towns additional tax revenues to finance capital improve- ments and public services. Carl E. von. Attitudes and Opinions Related to the Development of an Oil Shale Industry, for the Oil Shale Regional Planning Commission and the Colorado West Area Council of Govern- ments. Denver, Colo.: Bickert, Browne and Coddington and Asso- ciates, Inc., 1973. 468 ------- Another impact category which may involve government is the demand for housing and mobile homes subdivisions to accommodate temporary and longer term workers. Colorado provides minimum stan- dards for subdivision design, platting, provision of utilities, open space_, and similar control criteria. The Department of Local Affairs within the state's Division of Housing serves as the ad- ministrative organization to assist in the establishment and finan- cing of needed housing.1 In addition, Colorado's Housing Finance Corporation can help alleviate low and middle income housing needs by securing home mortgage money for traditional lending institu- tions in rural areas. Since a number of the energy-impacted com- munities must rely on mobile homes to meet temporary population growth, it is significant that Colorado has adopted mobile home construction standards for all mobile homes sold in the state. Of more critical concern, however, is the need to assure adequate enforcement of construction standards and the provision of now nonexistent mobile home park codes of design.2 The most important political impacts are related to land use in the area and the effect of energy development on ranchers. Po- litically, the rancher-dominated system will be strained by new- comers almost from the beginning of construction. As development progresses, urban centers will acquire a larger proportion of vot- ers and, hence, political influence in the counties. This shift can begin as early as 1980 in Rio Blanco County when a large num- ber of new permanent workers and their families are present. 6.4.5 Summary of Social and Economic Impacts Manpower requirements and the capital cost of the energy fa- cilities are major causes of social and economic impacts. The man- power requirements for operation of the underground mines exceed peak construction manpower requirements, particularly in the case of the coal mine. However, the reverse is true for the conversion facilities. The peak construction manpower requirement for the power plant exceeds the operation requirement by about six times. In combination, the total manpower requirement for each oil shale mine-conversion facility increases from the first year when con- struction begins, peaks, and then declines as construction activity ceases. After all the facilities and their associated mines are Ross M., Dan Luna, and Lynda A. Watkins. Boom Town Financing Study, 2 vols. Denver, Colo.: Colorado Department of Local Affairs, 1976. 2See the Policy Analysis of Planning and Growth Management in White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West; Policy Analysis Re- port. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. 469 ------- constructed, operation of the 50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II plant will require the least labor and the 57,000 bbl/day in situ oil shale facility, the most. Property tax, sales tax, severance tax, royalty payments, and oil shale bonus bids generate revenue for local and state gov- ernment. Capital costs of the conversion facilities and mines hy- pothesized for the Rifle area range from about $515 million (mine- power plant facility) to $556 million (1975 dollars) for the 50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant and mine combination. The property tax is levied at a rate of about 1.37 percent on the cash value of each facility and the sales tax is levied at a rate of 3.5 percent on the materials and equipment purchased. Royalty payments are about 12.5 percent of the value of federally owned coal and 12C per ton of oil shale mined. Oil shale bonus bids are expected to be about $25 million for a 50,000 bbl/day facility. About half of all min- eral revenues will go to the state government. If all facilities are constructed according to the hypothe- sized schedule, the Rifle scenario energy development will in- crease the population of western Colorado by 43,000 people, 16,000 of whom will be in the area by 1980. This early increase, con- sisting largely of construction workers, will require 5,700 homes, at least 40 percent of which may be mobile homes. As construction workers are replaced by operational employees, the proportion of mobile homes may be able to decline to about 20 percent of total housing. School enrollment will increase through 1995 and subside after that. The long-term capital need for education will be about $6 million by 1990; operating' expenditures will more than triple for the school districts serving Rifle and Grand Valley. The towns of Meeker, Rangely, Rifle, and Grand Valley likewise will receive the bulk of the population impact from development. The long-term income benefit to Rifle area residents is esti- mated to be about a 13 percent increase; during construction the increase will be up to 28 percent. Some local inflation will re- duce the latter to the long-term level. Grand Junction, the eco- nomic service center for the area, also will receive some commer- cial benefits from these energy developments. Local governments will require greatly expanded facilities to serve the larger local populations, especially in water and sew- age treatment. In fact, about $20 million will be needed primarily by Meeker and Rangely by 1980; an additional $12 million will be needed by Rifle and Grand Valley by 1990. The change from an agricultural and tourism base to an en- ergy development base will have social as well as economic effects. Population concentrations and conflicts over agricultural land in population expansion areas will require adjustments within the lo- cal area. The overall planning capacity of local governments ap- pears to be inadequate to manage growth in the area. 470 ------- 6.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 6.5.1 Introduction The area considered for ecological impacts in the Rifle sce- nario extends from the Colorado-Utah state line eastward to the middle of the White River National Forest, and from Grand Mesa on the south to the northern Moffat County line.1 The complex topography of the area varies from river valleys at 4,700 feet to mountains higher than 11,000 feet. Both rainfall and temperature vary with topography; conditions are relatively drier and warmer at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. The structures of the area's varied soils reflect the combined influ- ence of biological conditions, weather, and topography. In the study area, the principal influences controlling the development of biological communities are slope, elevation, and exposure. Forestry, agriculture, and grazing have a locally important influence. 6.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions Vegetation types correspond approximately to altitude and ex- posure. The major types in order of elevation are: riparian (streamside) and agricultural bottomlands; salt desert shrub; sage- brush communities; pinyon-juniper woodland; mixed mountain brush areas? midelevation coniferous forest; and subalpine coniferous forest. Mixtures of types are often found together in patches. The dominant species characteristic of these biological communities are summarized in Table 6-43. Although widely distributed, most smaller animals generally live within a single community. However, some birds and most big game species range more widely. The larger mammals (such as deer, elk, bear, and mountain lions) generally move freely between zones but use them selectively and during different seasons. Fifty-four species of mammals, 260 species of birds, and 13 species of rep- tiles and amphibians have been reported for the area. Rare or endangered terrestrial species include the bald eagle and pere- grine falcon; the black-footed ferret may also be present. Aquatic habitats vary from temporary creeks and small perma- ment streams such as Parachute and Piceance Creeks to the area's two major rivers, the Colorado and the White. Both cold-water and warm-water fish inhabit these streams, including trout, mountain whitefish, bluehead sucker, channel catfish, Cplorado squawfish, and carp. JA large area was considered due to the extensive influence of increased human populations. 471 ------- TABLE 6-43: SELECTED CHARACTERISTIC SPECIES OF MAIN COMMUNITIES, RIFLE SCENARIO COMMUNITY TYPE Riparian (bottomlands ) Salt desert shrub Sagebrush Pinyon- juniper Mountain brush Midelevation Subalpine forest CHARACTERISTIC PLANTS Crops Cottonwood Box elder Willow species Green ash Cropland (some irrigated) Shadscale Greasewood Fourwing saltbush Nuttall saltbush Big sage Silver sage Rabbitbrush Bitterbrush Pinyon pine Utah juniper Bitterbrush Mountain mahogany Rabbitbrush Serviceberry Mountain mahogany Chokecherry Snowberry Gambel oak Ponder osa pine Douglas fir Snowberry Mountain maple Serviceberry Engelmann spruce Lodgepole pine Aspen Fescut species Needle grass CHARACTERISTIC ANIMALS Muskrat Raccoon Snakes (e.g., common garter) Amphibians (e.g., tiger salamander) Songbirds (e.g., yellow-throat) Lizards (e.g., short- horned) Kangaroo rat Jackrabbit Gray fox Antelope Mule deer (winter) Blue and sage grouse Sagebrush lizard Brewers blackbird Sage sparrow Blue and sage grouse Mountain cottontail Scrub jay Least chipmunk Mule deer Elk (winter) Deer (migratory or winter) Chickadees Kinglets Gray jay, Steller's jay Mule deer (summer) Elk (summer) Red squirrel Lewis ' woodpecker Snowshoe hare Hawks and owls Mule deer (summer) Elk (summer) Mountain goat Bighorn sheep Red fox Hawks and owls Clark's nutcracker 472 ------- 6.5.3 Factors, Producing Impacts Four factors associated with construction and operation of the scenario facilities can cause ecological impacts: land use, population increases, water use and pollution, and air pollution. With the exception of land use, the quantities of each of these factors associated with the scenario facilities were given in previous sections of this chapter. Land-use quantities are given in this section and the others are summarized. Land use by each of the facilities proposed for the Rifle area is given in Table 6-44. The amount of land used during the lifetime of each facility (30 years) ranges from 180 acres (the in situ oil shale process) to 2,650 acres (the 50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II facility and mine.) . In the two cases where spent shale disposal is required (TOSCO II and in situ with a surface retort), land use is high. The manpower required for construction and operation of the facilities is expected to cause an increase in urban population. Peak manpower requirement for the scenario facilities is about 1,570 for the power plant and mine, 1,680 for the 50,000 bbl/day plant and mine, and 2,900 for the 57,000 bbl/day in situ plant and mine. After construction is completed, manpower requirement for operation is 1,330 for the power plant and mine, 920 for the 50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II plant and mine, and 1,600 for the 57,000 bbl/day .in, situ plant and mine. Assuming the power plant is wet cooled, It's water requirement is 9,400 acre-ft/yr. The TOSCO II facility will require 9,300 acre-ft/yr and the in. situ facility from 4,360 to 5,660 acre-ft/yr. Water sources postulated to meet these requirements are the White River near Meeker, the Colorado River near Grand Valley and groundwater from mine dewatering. Ef- fluent streams from the facilities directed to ponds or treatment facilities will contribute contaminants to surface and groundwater only if evaporative ponds leak or erode. The annual ambient air concentrations of S02 will range from 0.1 (in situ shale) to 2.3 micrograms per cubic meter (yg/m3) (power pTant).Peak concentra- tions from the power plant will violate Colorado's 24-hour and 3-hour SO2 ambient air standard. Typical and peak concentrations from the TOSCO II oil shale plant will greatly exceed federal am- bient air standards for HC. 6.5.4 Impacts The nature of the ecological impacts caused by these factors depends on the plant and animal community type on which they are imposed. For example, the impact of land use depends on whether desert shrub, riparian, or pinyon-juniper communities are used. Some of the land-use trends are now evident or could occur regard- less of energy related growth. A scenario, which calls for the development of a power plant, 50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant, and 57,000 bbl/day in situ oil shale plant and associated mines, to be 473 ------- cn w H EH H J H O w u cn CD w en D I i~D w en SH OS CD rn ^"i ^0 °\ \|S M SH O 03 £H E^i H J H CJ PH rt o 0 in ,~^ !>i ft -P 2 g ^ • ro ^^ 0) G •H gj T3 G 3 O SH Cn SH CU rrj H G 03 D O u o o 00 . — , CU g § o o o ^ rH • — • -P C 0! H ft SH (U O ft tfl J. 0 0 m ~ ft 4J g § ^D CN — ' CU c •H g CU rH 05 r\| cn rH •H 0 T3 C 3 0 CU SH rH Cn o! SH XI CU cn Td c rH D •H 0 3 O m rH k CN - > 03 T) \ rH XI X) o o 0 0 tn — • -P SH O -P OJ H H O u cn o EH O 0 00 rH , — , £"! H cu ft in H CU SH SH 05 X! 0) rrj ^ rH X! X! SH OS cu SH CU u ft-H tn G O 4-1 G O •H rH rH •H g II >1 ft -P i SH -P O cu rH CU 1 -P -P 03 U OS Cn CU g II CU Td cu •H ft 3 U O 0 CU X) o •p cu -p •H in cu c •H g cu -p UH 0 G O -H -P SH O ft •P 0) pr] -P >~i rH G O in cu T3 3 rH U C H n) • en CU SH 3 -P U 3 SH -P en cu D 03 MH SH 3 tn >i X! e retort site and 1,500 acres for r\| -P SH O U-l tn CU SH o oi o in M3 tn cu ^d rj 1— \| U G H rQ 30 years. SH cu > o rH os tn O ft tn -H ro CU rH 0! rj tn -P C CU p.. tn structures associated with the tu process (80 acres). CU -H u in 03 MH G SH -H 3 tn 'Td G O n [ ^ ^ in Td cu G SH oi u rH Oi en o 0) 0 Td rH 3 ' — ' rH O CU G G H -H 0 g structures associated with the cu u oi MH SH 3 in SH 0 MH Td £ 0) rH tn cu T3 3 •H U £ H "O -P G en G os in cu SH U 0) 0 tn G •H -P O -P CU SH CU 0 oi m SH 3 tn «. ,_^ cn cu SH O o! 0 o rH — • cu G •H g • in cu o 0 o CTl cn SH o! CU K^l O PO SH cu £> O rH Oi en O P) cn •H T3 cu rH 0) r, tn five acres per well for cleared HH O cu SH 3 Cn -H 4H OS in cu g £3 tn tn oi tn •H r\| EH 0) 1 oi cu in s. (d i m o i -P •H SH CU G •H rH CU •H en H H CU Cn qj •H O 3 rQ O SH ft T) G 3 O SH oi 05 CU SH OS • id 0) 0 SH rrj £j 05 «. en cu •H -P •H rH •H O OS m G o -H -p 03 SH 474 ------- developed according to a specified time schedule (see Table 6-1), is used here as the vehicle through which the extent of the im- pacts are explored. Impacts caused by land use, population in- creases, water use and pollution, and by air pollution are dis- cussed. A. To 1980 The power plant and its associated underground coal mine will begin operation in 1980. Table 6-45 shows the expected land use by the energy facilities and urban population in the scenario area which includes Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties. By 1980, 3,061 acres will be used by the power plant and its associated mine and by the urban population; this is about 0.1 percent of the land in these counties (Table 6-45). Table 6-46 gives the community types lost due to land use by energy facilities and urban population. Habitat losses by 1980 will be primarily mountain brush and sage- brush. Land in the scenario area which is managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is presently grazed in spring and fall by cattle and sheep and is stocked below its carrying capacity (based on forage production alone) to preserve wildlife and water- shed values. The forage which could be produced on the 3,061 acres used by 1980 is roughly equivalent to the food consumed by 43-86 cows with calves or 215-432 sheep using the area as seasonal pas- ture.1 Temporary land use of about 750 acres during construction of transmission line rights-of-wa^ is not included in acres lost (Tables 6-45 and 6-46) because grazing values can be restored with proper reclamation practice to a level similar to that which ex- isted before the line was built. The impacts of habitat removal on small nongame species that do not occupy large ranges will probably be localized, not affect- ing populations on adjacent undisturbed areas. These local losses will not adversely affect predators that use them as food. The power plant site is located within a large elk winter range. The total area affected is small—less than five percent of the total winter range unit--but human activity may cause elk to stay as much as a half mile from the construction site. The impact of these factors alone, in terms of elk populations, cannot 1 Based on the carrying capacity of the land in acres per ani- mal unit month (AUM), as furnished by the BLM (White River Resource Area personnel, personal communication, 1976). An AUM, a unit of forage production, is the amount of food consumed by a cow with calf, or five sheep in a month. Because of differences in food habits, the unit cannot generally be extended to wild grazing ani- mals. Potential forage losses calculated in AUM's are independent of season. Acres of forage required per animal unit assuming sea- onal pasturing (six-month) is 35.. 4 to 70.8. Twelve-month pastur- ing would require twice as many acres. 475 ------- TABLE 6-45: LAND USE IN RIFLE SCENARIO AREA (in acres) By Energy Facilities Conversion Facilities Power Plant (1,000 MWe) Oil Shale In Situ (57,000 bbl/day) Oil Shale Retort (50,000 bbl/day) Associated Mines Underground Coal Mine (3.4 MMtpy) Underground Oil Shale (26 MMtpy) Subtotal By Urban Population Rio Blanco County Residential Streets Commercial Public and Community Facilities Industry Subtotal Garfield County Residential Streets Commercial Public and Community Facilities Industry Subtotal Subtotal Total Land Use Total Land in Rifle Scenario 4,005,760 Land in Rio Blanco County 2,088,320 Land in Garfield County 1,917,440 1975 260 52 6 16 26 36CT 445 89 11 28 44 6 17 977 977 1980 800 500 1,300 795 159 19 49 80 1,102 475 95 11 30 48 STT 1,761 3,061 1990 800 180 2,150 500 500 4,130 870 174 21 54 87 1,206 570 114 14 35 57 790" 1,996 6,126 2000 800 180 2,150 500 500 "4,130 915 183 22 57 92 1,269 600 120 14 37 60 83T 2,100 6,230 MWe = megawatt-electric bbl/day = barrels per day MMtpy = million tons per year Values in each column are cumulative for year given. Acres used by the urban population were calculated using population estimates in Table 6-32 for Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties assuming: residential land = 50 acres per 1,000 population; streets = 10 acres per 1,000 population; com- mercial land = 1.2 acres per 1,000 population; public and community facilities = 3.1 acres per 1,000 population; and industry = 5 acres per 1,000 population. Adapted from THK Associates. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry: Regional Development and Land-Use Study.Denver, Colo.:THK Associates, 1974. 476 ------- TABLE 6-46: VEGETATION LOSSES OVER TIME IN THE RIFLE SCENARIO AREA (acres)a COMMUNITY TYPE Mountain brush Sagebrush Pinyon- juniper Total 1980 2,755 214 92 3,061 1990 3,939 238 1,949 6,126 2000 3,644 263 2,323 6,230 aThe data in the table include land use by energy facilities and urban popula- tion. The following land-use categories are not included in the table: product pipelines will remove roughly 70 acres of mountain brush, 170 acres of sage, 70 acres of pinyon-juniper. New roads will occupy a total of approximately 710 acres in the riparian/agricultural zone but will remove substantially less than that amount of vegetation (probably only about 360 acres) because the widths of the existing roads are already cleared. A new road connecting the town of Rangely to the Piceance Creek site will remove 240 acres of mixed pinyon-juniper and up- land sagebrush. The oil field development around Rangely will disturb a total of 850 acres, divided between the oil wells themselves and the gathering pipelines connecting them. be quantified with available data but would probably be small com- pared to overall herd size. While the activities of construction workers will have neg- ligible impacts on most nongame species outside the immediate plant site, several-fold increases in big game poaching are typically ob- served around large construction projects in the West.: For these species, the impact of illegal kills will probably be more signi- ficant with respect to areawide populations than will habitat loss. Other than big game animals, the only other species which are Grand Junction Field Office Staff, Colorado Division of Wild- life. Personal Communication, 1976. 477 ------- subject to local reductions by illegal shooting are large birds of prey, including hawks and eagles.1 Manpower associated with energy development is expected to cause a 57 percent increase over the 1975 urban population in Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties by 1980. Urban population increase, together with growing use by out-of-state visitors, will place additional demands on mountain habitats for dispersed backoountry recreational activities. Designated wilderness areas will receive especially heavy demand.2 Recreational activities with a potential for altering wildlife distribution patterns include: camping and fishing, which tend to cause selective deterioration of delicate riparian and lakeshore habitats; off-road-vehicle (ORV) use; and hiking and backpacking. Certain heavily used areas are already beginning to show visible signs of deterioration.3 Recreational opportunities offered by the White River and Grand Mesa National Forests tend to draw visitors from all over the nation. As a regional recreational focus, the area receives a strong impact from the metropolitan centers along Colorado's Front Range as well as from the Western Slope. The population change is likely to have a disproportionately large impact on National Forest use because residents will use the forests re- peatedly, rather than once or twice yearly. Also, persons visit- ing new residents may help to swell the number of forest visitors. Increased human presence in mountainous backcountry tends to lead to withdrawal of sensitive species away from areas of activity. Coaching has a much more severe impact than legitimate hunting in that it affects game of both sexes and occurs throughout the year. Removal of pregnant females and nonbreeding young can affect the ability of the population to maintain adequate breeding stock. Legitimate hunting is regulated so as to assure the presence of enough breeding adults to regenerate the herd year after year. 2Two areas certain to be used more intensely are Snowmass/ Maroon Bells and Flat Tops—the Elk Creek and Canyon Creek drain- ages. Three areas adjacent to Snowmass/Maroon Bells are also likely to be used extensively, particularly if they are designated as wilderness areas (a possibility which is currently being con- sidered) . Another area not classified as wilderness but also sus- ceptible to heavy recreational use is the Grand Mesa National For- est immediately south of Rifle. 3For example, along the Canyon del Diablo portion of Main Elk Creek which lies in the scenario area, excessive use since 1972 has led to serious erosion problems along roads and trails. Increased fishing in Main Elk Creek has already reduced the quality of the trout fishery. Todd, J. "We're Losing the Wild in the Wilder- ness." Colorado Outdoors, Vol. 25 (March/April 1976), pp. 10-11. 478 ------- Species considered sensitive to this type of disturbance include mountain lion, pine marten, bear, and elk. The diversity and abun- dance of small mammals and birds may be decreased on a local scale around heavily used areas. Snowmobile use, although usually con- centrated in areas of deep snow avoided by migratory wildlife in winter, can be particularly stressful to big game animals. Deer and elk normally winter at different elevations, which permits them to share the available winter habitat. Depending on the degree to which elk are disturbed in wintering areas, movement of these animals to lower elevations could bring them into direct competition with deer, which may suffer as a result. There is also some circumstantial evidence that displacement of elk by heavy rec- reational activity in their high-elevation summer range and calving ground may be associated with declines in overall numbers.1 With existing controls on use, continued deterioration in habitat qual- ity may be expected in wilderness areas.2 Recreational vehicle use of the rugged lands of the Roan Pla- teau and adjacent uplands may increase. Much of this region is presently accessible by road or trail, and most of this land is under BLM control which has limited personnel for adequate enforce- ment. Besides supporting a diverse small-vertebrate fauna, these lands constitute a major mule deer winter range; inadvertent or intentional harassment by ORV users could result indirectly in the loss of an unquantifiable number of animals.3 The water requirement of the power plant will be about 8 per- cent of the average flow and 21 percent of the minimum flow of the White River near Meeker, its water source. The increased water demand for the 1980 urban population will probably be met with water from the Colorado River. Effluents from the energy facility will be ponded. Increased wastewater from urban population will require updated treatment facilities. Contaminated urban runoff and leachates from additional municipal solid waste disposal sites could contaminate groundwater and surface water. Air quality changes due to emissions of criteria pollutants from the power plant are not expected to cause significant ecolog- ical impacts by 1980. :San Juan National Forest Staff. Personal Communication, 1976. 2The White River National Forest has no current plans to in- stitute a backcountry permit system. Colorado Division of Wild- life Staff. Personal Communication, 1976. 3During the late winter months, deer are usually in their poorest condition. Avoiding ORV pursuit, especially by snowmobiles, may debilitate weakened individuals sufficiently to reduce their resistance to disease. 479 ------- B. To 1990 All the scenario facilities will be operating by 1990. By this time, 6,126 acres of land, about 0.15 percent of the total acres in Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties, will have been used by the energy facilities and urban population. Forage which could be produced on the land used would support 78-155 cows with calves or 388-777 sheep assuming they are seasonally pastured. Land use by 1990 will affect local populations of small vertebrates and pred- ators, but area-wide populations will probably remain stable. Increases in manpower requirements for construction and oper- ation of the facilities is expected to cause a 92 percent increase over the 1975 urban population in Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties, which will total 41,800 by 1990. Population of elk, deer, ante- lope, hawks, and bald eagles could decline by 1990 as a result of increased poaching associated with increasing construction forces and urban population. The additional vehicular traffic in and out of the two oil shale plant/mine complexes will also have an additional adverse influence on wildlife, particularly on mule deer which concentrate in the Parachute Creek Valley during the winter. Initially, road kills of wildlife will increase sharply. As many as 100 deer may be killed in the first year or two of heavy traffic in Parachute Creek.1 Subsequently, deer may begin to avoid their old winter concentration areas and attempt to winter in adjacent habitats. The bulk of the human population influx into the scenario area is expected by 1990. Most changes associated with urban growth should be apparent by 1985, although they intensify somewhat later. In addition to urban growth, increased population will add to ex- isting demands for recreational and second home sites. Areas most affected by this kind of growth will include the White River Valley east of Meeker, the Glenwood Springs area, and the Rifle area. The major impacts of urban and residential growth on animals arise through fragmentation of habitat; for example, where foothills used as winter deer range are subdivided for recreational homesites, and where there is local intensification of such activities as ORV and trail bike use and similar miscellaneous disturbances. Valley and foothill habitats, which contain the most developable lands, are most vulnerable to this type of deterioration. Colony Development Operation; Atlantic Richfield Company, Operator. An Environmental Impact Analysis for a Shale Oil Complex at Parachute Creek, Colorado, Part I: Plant Complex and Service Corridor. Denver, Colo.: Atlantic Richfield, 1974; and U.S. , Department of the Interior. Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Program, 2 vols. Washington, D.C.:Government Printing Office,F973. 480 ------- Fragmentation of biological communities is likely to have the greatest impact in the White River valley east of Meeker, and spe- cies with large ranges will be most affected. For example, accord- ing to the Colorado Division of Wildlife personnel, 30-50 percent of the elk herd in the White River National Forest winter on pri- vate lands, and available winter range is thought to limit the size of this herd. Elk are sensitive to human disturbance and tend to move completely away from areas with increased levels of activity.1 Therefore, the impact of energy-related habitat fragmentation and clearing will be greater than the proportion of acreage involved. The mule deer winter range will also be affected. Deer are less liable to wholesale emigration in response to habitat fragmentation, but some measurable reduction in numbers is probably inevitable. Urban development will occur primarily in the major river val- leys, and fragmentation will probably affect species typical of the cultivated valley lands. However, these species are adapted to fragmented habitat. The chukar partridge, a bird with narrow hab- itat requirements, is likely to be eliminated locally near Grand Junction. This could reduce the total breeding population slightly. Beaver remaining in the valley might also suffer from clearing of riparian vegetation, which is their primary food source. Urban water demands and generation of wastewater are expected to increase as the population increases. However, water withdraw- als for municipalities and the energy facilities are not expected to have a significant impact on the aquatic ecology of the Colorado River, which has an average flow of 1,955,000 acre-ft/yr. The effect of dewatering on vegetation will be confined pri- marily to the riparian and agricultural areas. Deteriorated water quality could curtail irrigation in the remainder of the drainage. This will probably result in a shift in vegetation from cultivated grasses to one of the two major native valley floor associations; sagebrush and saltbush-greasewood. Accumulation of salts in ir- rigated soils may favor the latter. Some species of terrestrial animals will be affected directly by the loss of these valley vegetation types. These include musk- rat, raccoon, other stream-side mammals of medium size, and the characteristic small bird species of riparian woodlands. Small mammals, which are abundant in irrigated haylands, will be reduced in numbers, which may in turn lead to locally reduced numbers of preda,tors and wintering birds of prey. lfrhis statement represents the current conventional wisdom; recent observations at Glenwood Springs and Steamboat Springs have indicated that elk may return to such ranges after a few years (Colorado Division of Wildlife, Grand Junction, Colorado. Personal Communication, 1976). 481 ------- While the upland vegetation may persist without change, the loss of accessible water from springs and streams will probably alter the composition and perhaps the abundance of their animal communities. For example, sage grouse and blue grouse require mois'. areas with plentiful succulent vegetation and accessible water during the brood-rearing phase of their life cycle. A sage grouse brood-rearing area lying along the southern edge of the Piceance basin will probably be abandoned if its springs are lost. In winter, mule deer can probably obtain their water needs from snow or meltwater; thus, the large populations wintering there might not be seriously affected by groundwater depletion. However, deer may cease to use some of the area in summer. Interception of groundwater flow in the Parachute Creek Basin by the 50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant is not expected to result in a significant loss of base flow in the Colorado River. Reduced flows may result in slight increases in salinity downstream. Due to dewatering, the sport fishery in the Piceance Creek, which in- cludes brown, rainbow, and brook trout and mountain whitefish, will probably be lost or degraded. More adaptable nongame species may remain. The potential ecological impact of flow reduction in the White River is impossible to quantify with available data. Flow-reduction sufficient to result in ecological stress is not likely to occur every year. Instream flow needs for maintaining the aquatic com- munity have not been established for the White River. Lowered cur- rent velocity will reduce populations of organisms living on sediment-free stream bottoms fed on by fish and limit fish spawning or nesting habitat. The oil shale complex will dispose of spent shale in on-site impoundments; catastrophic failures of these impoundments are un- likely during the 30 years of plant operation.1 However, should such an event occur (most probably as a result of a flash flood), spent shale from the Parachute Creek disposal pile could be car- ried as far as the Colorado River. The fine-grained shale could physically obliterate existing bottom communities in Parachute Creek, rendering them unstable and reducing productivity for sev- eral years. Heavy metals in the shale could be slowly released into the aquatic environment, possibly contaminating the food chain if present in sufficient quantities. Also, there is evidence that carbonaceous spent shales of the type produced by the TOSCO II pro- cess contain at least moderately carcinogenic substances which are ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Draft Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Development of Oil Shale Resources by the Colony Development Operation in Colorado. Washington, D.C.: Bureau of Land Management, 1975. 482 ------- water soluble and subject to leaching.1 The spent shale piles containing salts, trace elements, and potentially carcinogenic compounds will be treated to prevent the occurrence of significant ecological impacts.2 Accidental rupture of product pipelines could release quan- tities of oil or ammonia into the Parachute Creek drainage area. The effects of such a spill could be both acute (from introducing water-soluble toxins into the aquatic ecosystem) and chronic (from fouling of the bottom by oil). Relatively small spills might re- sult in possible fish kills.3 Following a spill which entered one of the flowing rivers or streams in the scenario area, oil would tend to collect in the quiet backwaters used by young fish and could foul productive riffle areas. Alkaline shale dusts and salts carried in cooling tower drift also damage vegetation. Processed shale resembling cement-kiln dust, which is thought to cause premature needle-drop in conifers,1 would be confined to the immediate plant and spent shale disposal areas. The effect of salt deposition around cooling towers would also be confined to an area within a few hundred yards in the di- rection of prevailing winds. The highest salt deposition rates will be associated with the power plant; and the lowest level will occur at the Parachute Creek oil shale plant. The projected emissions of S02 result in periodic high ground- level concentrations when plumes impact on adjacent high terrain. High SO2 concentrations have caused acute damage in experiments with ponderosa pine. The sensitivities of other woody plants in the area are either lower or have not been tested. The area of ^chmidt-Collerus, Josef J. The Disposal and Environmental Effects of Carbonaceous Solid Wastes from Commercial Oil Shale Operations.Denver,Colo.:University of Denver,Research Insti- tute, 1974. 2Pfeffer, Fred M. Pollutional Problems and Research Needs for an Oil Shale Industry, EPA-660/2-74-067.Ada, Okla.:Robert S, Kerr Environmental Research Laboratory, 1974. 3U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Draft Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed'Development of Oil Shale Resources by the Colony Development Operation in Colorado. Washington,D.C.:Bureau of Land Management,1975. ''U.S., Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Public Health Service. Air Quality Criteria for Particulate Matter, Na- tional Air Pollution Control Administration Publication No.AP-49. Springfield, Va.: National Technical Information Service, 1969. 483 ------- vegetation damage would probably be less than one to two square miles. Ground-level concentrations near the smaller plant are not high enough to suggest such acute damage, although chronic impacts (resulting in reduced growth, vigor, and resistance to disease) cannot be ruled out. Slight to negligible soil acidification1 could also result from a combination of dry deposition of partic- ulate sulfates and S02. Total scenario S02 emissions are probably not high enough to result in acid rain problems, although, acid mists could form locally under certain conditions. C. To 2000 Although construction of all the scenario facilities will be completed by 1990, land use will continue to increase due to dis- posal of spent shale and urban growth. By 2000, about 6,230 acres, (about 0.16 percent of the total acres in Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties) will be used by the energy facilities and urban popula- tion (Table 6-45). Forage which could be produced on the land used would support 111-222 cows with calves or 555-1,110 sheep, assuming they are seasonally pastured. Other ecological impacts associated with land use by 1990 will be more intense by 2000. In 2000, the urban population will have doubled its 1975 level in Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties. Ecological impacts associated with urban population increase, water use and pollution, and air pollution will be qualitatively similar to those described by 1990. D. After 2000 About 7,000 acres of land, 0.18 percent of the total area in Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties, will be used by the energy facil- ities (Figure 6-2). If the facilities are located totally or pri- marily on land suitable for other development (which is only a small fraction of the total area), the effect will be much greater than implied by the total area occupied. The population-related land requirements shown in Table 6-45 must use the developable land in the river valleys, which constitutes only about 393,600 acres in the two counties.2 The requirements for most population- related land needs amount to only 2,100 acres (0.54 percent of the Acidifying the soil with sulfates is thought to increase the rate at which nutrients are lost from the soil by leaching. 2THK Associates, Inc. Impact Analysis and Development Pat- terns Related to an Oil Shale Industry; Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974, pp. 61-70; see also Ashland Oil, Inc., Shell Oil Co., Operator. Oil Shale Tract C-b: Socio-Economic Assessment, prepared in conjunction with the activities related to lease C-20341 issued under the Federal Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Program, 2 vols. n.p.: March 1976. 484 ------- developable land and 1.41 percent of the "most suitable" develop- able land) in Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties.1 Ecological impacts after 2000 associated with population in- crease, water use and pollution, and air pollution are expected to be similar to those prior to 2000. 6.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts Four factors associated with construction and operation of the scenario facilities can significantly affect the ecological impacts of energy development: land use, population increases, water use and pollution, and air pollution. About 7,000 acres of land, 0.16 percent of the total area in Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties, will be used by. the energy facilities and urban popula- tion during the thirty-year lifetime of the facilities. By 2000, urban population in Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties will be 43,850, an increase of 100 percent over the 1975 population. The water requirement of the power plant (operating at the expected load factor and assuming high wet cooling is used) will be 2 per- cent of the average flow and 8 percent of the minimum flow of its water source, the White River. The base flow of the White River may be reduced during periods of low flow due to water withdrawal for the power plant. Water withdrawn for an oil shale plant and municipalities from the Colorado River, which has an average flow of 1,955,000 acre-ft/yr, is not expected to have a significant impact. Colorado's 24-hour and 3-hour SOj ambient air standards will be violated by emissions from the power plant. Major ecological impacts caused by these factors are ranked into categories in Table 6-47. These categories are based upon the extent of community change and number of species affected. Class A impacts such as habitat removal or fragmentation or changes caused by the failure of shale piles or pipelines are the most severe. Class B impacts locally affect fewer species and include stream flow depletion and illegal shooting. Impacts which are likely to affect the fewest animals and are extremely localized such as the localized plant damage from plume impaction, are ranked as Class C. A fourth category includes impacts that cannot be evaluated with certainty because adequate understanding of their mechanisms is not available. The complex processes that govern the movement of toxic metal ions and organic substances, such as may be con- tained in spent shale piles, are not well enough known to determine 1 Ratings according to THK Associates, Inc. Impacted Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry: Re- gional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Asso- ciates, 1974, p. 70. The development ratings therein unfortunately include currently irrigated lands as favorable for development, a conflict in use which will have to be resolved. 485 ------- TABLE 6-47: SUMMARY OF MAJOR ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS, RANKED BY SIGNIFICANCE IMPACT CATEGORY Class A Class B Class C Uncertain 1975-1980 Illegal shooting Grazing losses 1980-1990 Pipeline rupture Retention dam failure Habitat frag- mentation Flow depletion in White River Illegal shooting Increased recre- ational use of backcountry areas Grazing losses Localized S02 plant damage Leaching of toxins from spent shale 1990-2000 Pipeline rupture Retention dam failure Habitat frag- mentation Flow depletion in White River Groundwater depletion Illegal shooting Increased recre- ational use of backcountry areas Grazing losses Loss of irriga- tion water, Piceance Creek Leaching of toxins from spent shale Subacute SO2 injury to vegetation S02 = sulfur dioxide whether normal operation will involve a risk of contaminating Parachute Creek. Similarly, ignorance of the quantitative dynamics of acid rain formation and of the entry of atmospheric sulfates into forest soils means that the risk of subacute damage to vege- tation from S02 emissions cannot be assessed when only the amounts of S02 emitted are known. 486 ------- Table 6-48 summarizes the ecological impacts on several sel- ected animal species. Their cumulative effects on several species of interest to people will be as follows. (1) Game Species While not significantly affected by any of the direct impacts of energy facilities, elk may experience range displacement, and possible direct reduction in numbers, as a result of population growth. Mule deer populations have been low and decreasing in re- cent years, but the reasons for this are not known with certainty. It appears reasonable to expect an accelerated decline throughout the study period. Antelope habitat in Grand Valley, already sub- stantially fragmented by agriculture, will be further affected by urban and residential growth and probably by the use of ORV's near population centers. Coupled with poaching pressure, these influ- ences will probably contribute to an overall decline in the ante- lope population throughout the scenario time frame.l (2) Rare and Endangered Species Bald eagles within the scenario area have habitat classified as critical along the White River between Piceance Creek and Meeker and three small areas south of Rangley. These areas are all easily accessible from human population centers, and shooting will prob- ably reduce the number of eagles using these areas. Slight to marked declines may be expected from about 1978 through the sce- nario time frame. 6.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS FOR THE RIFLE SCENARIO The developments hypothesized for the Rifle area could produce benefits of 157,000 bbl/day of oil and 1,000 megawatts of electric- ity. Most of this energy would be transported out of the Rifle area and the western region. Average incomes would increase about 13 percent over present levels, and economic service activities would be increased. As a result of increased urbanization, res- idents in the area could enjoy more services and amenities, and several existing communities could either acquire or improve water and sewage treatment facilities, health services, parks, and rec- reational areas. Communities will also be able to professionalize their staff, particularly in planning. Improved roads, largely in the river and creek valleys, will make access to recreational areas easier for hunters, hikers, ORV enthusiasts, and other potential users. Social, economic, and political impacts associated with energy development in the Rifle area tend to be a function of the labor and capital intensity of facilities and,- when multiple facilities Selected additional game species are mentioned in Table 6-48. 487 ------- en w H u w &4 en U W J H cn en ID en O H D fo O P4 O EH en < u o PH CO •^ I ^D 3 ffl e* 0 CD &v nl a u r Q. 1C E c k- .2 0 IT "» E C k. k< fij OJ > £ O • j D r LI k. u Jl J o on n 1 «O L. ft) £ o -H 3 -- 3 C C c a -H u o Q, £ 4- .H 4J [^ -H 4J X 4J • 1C ftj -C ft) 03 --C c a c 3 c'1^8; 1 C ° 0 a -^ * > c/ U 4* " 0) -H if U £ «-< .0 -< C-H a. rc a 3 K 4J B 1-3 B ki M •^ O 0> •D "O CL > »H C 0 O •0 (C — QJ V. • QJ 3 U CO 4J K c D1 re re -- c c ft) C 3 Q, (U C rc •D — s c 3 4 O E Li O"c ic (c Q, c "- c 0 -H 4J « C 34J C £• -H U • -Hi) ft) ki ffl K 4J £ -I? 05 Oi OJ -H o e k. •O J -H U a* £ c k. O V) ft) C D1- 0 OJ-« «1 6. £ 4J t- (fi t; i 6. 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V. £ C 3 z u G 0 U 3 Z (C D k- J O 3 a -H o U 0 w 1° c 1 ~* > 1 a> i D ~ t/ M C J£ -" 0) C -! 0) w* O ki 4) U C1 3 C 4) — I 4J U — £ C U Oi Q, -H ai-c -H L B -H E &. 0 "C k. D C «- C >, 4J D — & O -H ffl ro 0> K en 3 C rc «. t. Q,' -£ C ?s - ft, ^ tr ra . •c > c, •H j« rc * 8; * c u >, -HOC m flj Q. QJ L C C C ^ a3 * U U 0> 4J-" C •C U — 4-1 flj i, £ - 6, 7 -5 C ' T & C Q, 3 ~ n £ 4< •H C U 4J OJ tr •D OJ u — C- O -H • — < cr> » c £ 1 QJ i T 2 •o c n v; 3 Z •C CJ -H ,J 488 ------- are involved, of scheduling their construction. These factors determine the pace and extent of migration of people to the sce- nario area, as well as the financial and managerial capability of local governments to provide services and facilities for the in- creased population. Labor forces increase the population directly and indirectly. For most facility types, more manpower is required for construction of the facility than for operation; thus, where multiple facilities are involved, construction can be scheduled so that population increases and instability are minimized. Revenue for the local, state, and federal governments is derived from prop- erty taxes and sales taxes, both of which are tied to the capital intensity of the facility, and from royalty payments on federally owned coal and oil shale. Acquiring funds for the expansion of public services and public facilities will be difficult. The fact that communities are small with undeveloped planning capacity will make that acquisition more difficult. Colorado has no funding assistance programs which would aid in financing increased public costs associated with increased population; but, in Colorado, dis- tricts rather than individual communities provide public services and facilities. In general, solutions to problems of who receives the revenue and who provides the services will involve all levels of government and their abilities to relate to each other. Life- style and cultural differences among residents and newcomers in- fluence the way in which impacts from energy development are per- ceived. However, some of the impacts related to an influx of "strangers" can be alleviated if labor forces include people who had previously migrated out of the area and local unemployed laborers. Air impacts associated with energy development in the Rifle area are related primarily to quantities of pollutants emitted by the energy facilities and quantities associated with activities of the increased population. A power plant emits more S02, N02, and CO than an oil shale plant, but the TOSCO II oil shale plant emits more HC and particulates than a power plant. Pollutant concentra- tions of HC associated with the population could be greater than those from the facilities. The complex terrain and poor disper- sion conditions in the Rifle area exacerbate air pollution prob- lems. For example, ambient air concentrations will exceed Colorado or federal standards in at least two categories. Colorado SO2 standards are exceeded by a factor of 5 by the 1,000 MWe power plant. The federal primary standard for HC is greatly exceeded, as fugitive emissions from the 50,000 bbl/day facility produce ambient concentrations that are 240 times the standard. There may also be an oxidant problem at Rifle and Grand Valley, visi- bility in the area will be reduced, and some Class II significant deterioration increments are exceeded. Water impacts associated with energy development in the Rifle area depend primarily on the water requirements of and effluents produced by the facilities. Water required for a power plant (which is primarily for cooling purposes), is more than that for 489 ------- oil shale plants, but the use of wet/dry cooling can significantly reduce the water required for a power plant. Water demand by the population is significant but less than that for the energy facil- ities. Effluents from the oil shale plants, most of which are spent shale, exceed those from the power plant. With the excep- tion of spent shale, all effluents will be ponded to prevent groundwater and surface water contamination. Mining activities intercept aquifers, affecting base flows of groundwater and surface water. Water availability will probably not pose a problem for energy development in the Rifle area and water quality is generally good in the White and Colorado Rivers and Parachute Creek. It is poor in Piceance Creek. Mine dewatering will lower groundwater tables so that after several decades, seeps and springs within several miles of the mine along Piceance Creek may diminish or run dry, which may affect vegetation and animal populations. In the long term, processed shale, whether stored on the surface or underground, will poten- tially have an impact on groundwater and surface water. Leachate from both will enter bedrock aquifers and local streams. It is also likely that, over the long term, the waste disposal ponds at the oil shale plants and the power plant will become sources of contaminants which will infiltrate local aquifers and possibly migrate into surface streams. Ecological impacts associated with energy development in the Rifle area depend on land use, population increases, water use and pollution, and air pollution. Habitat removal by the new popula- tion and the energy facilities will adversely affect both large and small animals, but changes in animal population will not be large. Larger stresses to animal life are more likely from addi- tional hunting and from reduction in stream flow, which may elim- inate some aquatic species and reduce riparian habitat. Plume im- paction from the power plant and oil shale facilities is likely to produce damage to vegetation in ah area up to several square miles. Process engineering changes and the imposition of addi- tional environmental control technologies, such as increased effi- ciency of S02 scrubbers, would lessen air impacts. Some air, wa- ter, and land impacts can be mitigated by in_ situ oil shale re- torting. 490 ------- CHAPTER 7 THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE GILLETTE AREA 7.1 INTRODUCTION Energy development proposed for the Gillette area will take place in Campbell County, Wyoming (Figure 7-1). This development consists of six surface coal mines, a mine-mouth electric genera- tion plant, two coal gasification plants, a coal liquefaction plant, coal export via both rail and slurry pipeline, natural gas production, two uranium mines (surface and solutional), and a uranium mill. As shown in Figure 7-2, all these facilities are located within 40 miles of Gillette. Although some of the elec- tricity is to be distributed within Wyoming, most of the energy is to be transported to demand centers in the Midwest. Construction of these facilities was to have begun in 1975, and all the facili- ties included in the scenario are to be in operation by the year 2000. Table 7-1 identifies the technologies to be used and gives the timetable for their deployment.1 In all four impact sections of this chapter (air, water, social and economic, and ecological), the factors that produce impacts are identified and discussed separately for each energy facility type. In the air and water sections, the impacts caused by those factors are also discussed separately for each facility type and, in combination, for a scenario in which all facilities are constructed according to the scenario schedule. In the social and economic and ecological sections, only the combined impacts of the scenario are discussed. This distinction is made because this hypothetical development may parallel actual development proposed by Carter Oil Company, Northern Natural Gas, Black Hills Power and Light, Carter Mining, Atlantic Richfield, Wyodak Resources Development, Kerr-McGee, Sunoco Energy Develop- ment, AMAX Coal, El Paso Natural Gas, Falcon Coal, Shell Oil, and others, the development identified here is hypothetical. As with others, this scenario was used to structure the assessment of a particular combination of technologies and existing conditions. 491 ------- MONTANA WYOMING . , , , 1 1 i 1 I 505 Topography, feet 4000-5000 Below 4000 .. 10 15 20 miles FIGURE 7-1: MAP OF THE GILLETTE SCENARIO AREA 492 ------- MONTANA iiiiiiiiiHMiiHiHConveyofS — _ « ....Trammraston FIGURE 7-2: ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE GILLETTE SCENARIO 493 ------- TABLE 7-1: RESOURCES AND HYPOTHESIZED FACILITIES AT GILLETTE Resources Coal3 (billions of tons) Resources 16 Proved Reserves 13 Natural Gasc (trillion standard cubic feet) Reserves 3.2 Uranium"1 (million of tons of ore) Reserves 353 Technologies Extraction r-r,~ i OOa J. Six surface mines of varying capacity using draglines Uranium One surface mine using dozers for ore removal Gas Completion of 83 wells with a combined production of 250 MMscfd Conversion One natural gas processing plant for the removal of H2S and natural gas liquids One Lurgi coal gasification plant oper- ating at 73 percent thermal efficiency; nickel-catalyzed methanation process; Glaus plant H2S removal; and wet forced- draft cooling towers One 3,000 MWe power plant consisting of four 750 MWe turbine generators; 34 per- cent plant efficiency; 80 percent effi- cient limestone scrubbers; 99 percent efficient electrostatic precipitator ; and wet forced-draft cooling towers One uranium ore processing plant using acid leaching of ore and ammonia precipi- tation to product 1,000 metric tons of U308 per year CHARACTERISTICS 1_ Coalb Heat Content 7,980 3tu's/lb Moisture 32 % Volatile Matter 43 % Fixed Carbon 42 % Ash 8 % Sulfur 0.6 % Uranium U309 Content 0.07% FACILITY SIZE 25.0 MMtpy 25.0 MMtpy 9 . 4 MMtpy 12 . 8 MMtpy 8 . 1 MMtpy 12 . 1 MMtpy 1,100.0 mtpd 6 27 50 250 MMscfd 250 MMscfd 750 MWe 750 MWe 1,500 MWe 1,000 mtpy COMPLETION DATE 1980 1985 1985 1985 1995 2000 1985 1977 1978 1979 1979 1985 1982 1984 1985 1985 FACILITY SERVICED Rail Export Slurry Export Lurgi Plant Power Plant Synth ane Synthoil Uranium Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural Gas i 494 ------- TABLE 7-1: (Continued) Conversion (Continued) One solutional mine-mill producing 250 tons of U30a per year One Synthane coal gasification plant operating at 80 percent thermal efficiency; nickel-catalyzed methanation process; Claus plant H2S removal; and wet forced-draft cooling towers One coal liquefaction plant operating at 92 percent efficiency; nickel-catalyzed methanation process; Claus plant H2S removal; and wet forced-draft cooling towers Transportation Coal Conveyors from mines to facilities Railroad Slurry Pipeline Gas One 36-inch pipeline Oil One 16-inch pipeline Electricity Four lines FACILITY SIZE 250 tpy 250 MMscfd 100,000 bbl/day 25 MMtpy 25 MMtpy 250 MMscfd 100,000 bbl/day 500 kV 500 kV 500 kV (2) COMPLETION DATE 1985 1995 2000 1980 1985 1979 2000 1982 1984 1985 FACILITY SERVICED Coal Coal Gas Oil Power Plant Power Plant Power Plant Btu'S/lb = British thermal units per pound U308 = uranium oxide MMtpy = million tons per year mtpd = metric tons per day MMscfd = million standard cubic feet per day H2S = hydrogen sulfide MWe = megawatt-electric mtpy • metric tons per year tpy = tons per year bbl/day = barrels per day kV » kilovolts aWyoming, Department of Economic Planning and Development. Coal and Uranium Development of the Powder River Basin—An Impact Analysis. Cheyenne, Wyo.:Wyoming, Department of Economic Planning and Development,1974. bctvrtnicek, T.E., S.J. Rusek, and C.W. Sandy. Evaluation of Eow-Sultur Western Coal Characteristics, Utilization, and Combustion Experience, EPA-650/2-75-046.Dayton, Ohio: Monsanto Research Corporation,1975.Estimates are for the Powder River Basin. cAmerican Petroleum Institute. Petroleum Facts and Figures, 1971 Edition. Washington, D.C.: American Petroleum Institute, 1971, p. 114. The value cited is for the state of Wyoming. U.S., Energy Research and Development Administration. Statistical Data of the Uranium Industry, January 1, 1976. Grand Junction, Colo.: Energy Research and Development Administration, 1976, p. 49. Value cited is for S30/lb U309 reserves for the state of Wyoming. 495 ------- social, economic, and ecological effects are, for the most part, higher order impacts. Consequently, facility-by-facility impact discussions would have been repetitive in nearly every respect. In 1975, Campbell County had a population of 17,000--more than double its 1960 total. This population influx resulted pri- marily from the large number of energy-related employment oppor- tunities in the area. The county's 1970 median income was $11,300, which was higher than both the Wyoming and national medians. Assessed 1975 valuation was in excess of $32 million, which was the highest in the state. At current tax rates, this valuation constitutes a tax base adequate to provide county social services for an increasing population. The county is governed by a three- member board of commissioners. Currently, all three commissioners are either ranchers or local businessmen; newcomers have not yet displaced locals to the extent that might have been expected. Although countywide zoning regulation is not practiced, develop- ment in an area around Gillette is controlled. The county and the city fund the City of Gillette-Campbell County Department of Planning and Development, which is responsible for all facets of municipal and countywide planning. Gillette, the county seat and the only incorporated town in Campbell County, had a population of 14,000 in 1975. It is gov- erned by a mayor and city council. While there is no city manager, there is a part-time city administrator. The city provides public safety, water, sewer, sanitation, and electrical services. Schools are operated by a countywide system, and the city cooperates with the county to provide animal control, fire protection, an airport, and snow removal. Both the water and sewer systems are operating at capacity, and efforts are under way to expand both. Most of the area around Gillette is still rural, and ranching is a major activity. At higher elevations, ponderosa pine and juniper woodlands predominate. At lower elevations there are deciduous woodlands along streambeds; however, most of the area is rangeland. The 4-percent decline in farmland in Campbell County from 1969 to 1974 is part of a 3-percent decline throughout Wyo- ming. This has occurred in part because several ranches in the area have been sold or leased to coal mine developers. Six large surface mines were in operation or under construction in 1977, the largest being the AMAX Belle Ayre Mine, which was the third largest producing mine in the U.S. in 1976, with production of 7.4 million tons. Runoff from the limited rainfall drains northward into the watersheds of the Powder and Belle Fourche Rivers, both of which are within the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB). These surface waters have intermittent flow and are not a reliable and adequate source of water. 496 ------- Air quality in the region is good, although winter inversions offer the potential for periods of pollutant accumulation. The principal existing source of industrial emissions is the Wyodak power plant, a 330 megawatt (MW) dry-cooled electric plant located 5 miles east of Gillette. Selected characteristics of the area are summarized in Table 7-2. 7.2 AIR IMPACTS1 7.2.1 Existing Conditions A. Background Pollutants Measurements of criteria pollutant2 concentrations taken at Rapid City, South Dakota,3 indicate that no federal or Wyoming standards are currently exceeded. Based on these measurements, annual average background levels chosen as inputs to the air dis- persion models are (in micrograms per cubic meter): sulfur diox- ide (S02), 18; particulates, 17; and nitrogen dioxide (NC>2), 4. " B. Meteorological Conditions Worst-case dispersion conditions can be associated with sta- ble air conditions, low wind speeds (less than 5-10 miles per hour), persistent wind direction, and relatively low mixing depths.5 1 The federal standards referred to in this section are those promulgated prior to the revisions mandated by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685. 2Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air quality standards are in force: carbon monoxide (CO), nonmethane hydro- carbons (HC), N02, oxidants, particulates, and S02. The term "hydrocarbons" is used to refer to nonmethane HC. 3U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Region VIII Energy Office, Surveillance Analysis Division. Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Network—EPA Region VIII Energy Areas, EPA 908/4-77- 011. Denver, Colo.: Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. ''These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's best professional judgment. They are used as the best estimates of the concentrations to be expected at any particular time. Back- ground concentrations of HC and CO are unknown, but high back- ground HC levels have been measured at other rural locations in the West and may occur here. Background CO levels are assumed to be relatively low. 5Mixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upward boundary of pollution dispersion. 497 ------- TABLE 7-2: SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GILLETTE AREA CHARACTERISTIC VALUE Environment Elevation Precipitation Temperature Winter Daily Low (January) Summer Daily High (July) Air Stability Soils 4,000-5,000 feet 14 inches average annually 87° F Stable 31 percent of the time Sandy to sandy loam, variable Biota Vegetation Croplands Dominant Animals Major Limiting Factors Grasslands (plus coniferous and deciduous) 92-percent rangeland, 4-percent croplands (forage) Cattle, rabbits, antelope Droughts, grazing Social and Economic3 Mineral Ownership (%) Federal State Local Government and Private Land Ownership Federal State Local Government and Private Population (County) Population Density Unemployment Income (per family) Poverty Level (less than $3,000) 46.8 % 7.1 % 46.1 % 12.6 % 6.5 % 80.8 % 17,000 3.8 per square mile 2.6 % (1970) $18,500 4.8 % Government County City (Gillette) Taxation Public Department Expenditures Board of County Commissioners Mayor-Council Primarily property tax $1.4 million (1972 Campbell County) Source: U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, County and City Data Book: A Statistical Abstract Supplement. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1972, pp. 534-545. aCampbell County, 1975 dollars. 498 ------- Under these conditions, increases in pollutant concentrations from both ground-level sources such as towns and strip mines and elevated sources such as tall scrubber stacks are likely. These worst-case dispersion conditions differ at each facility location and are reflected in the predicted annual average pollutant levels among locations. Prolonged periods of air stagnation are uncommon in the Gillette area. However, meteorological conditions unfavor- able for pollution dispersion occur approximately 30 percent of the time. Thus, plume impaction1 and limited plume mixing due to temperature inversions at plume height can be expected with some regularity.2 The pollution dispersion potential for the Gillette area will also vary considerably with the season and time of day. Pollution problems are most likely during fall and winter mornings when mix- ing depths and wind speeds are lowest. Dispersion potential is generally greatest during the spring. 7.2.2 Factors Producing Impacts The primary sources of air emissions in the Gillette scenario are: a power plant; three coal synthetic fuel facilities (Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil); a natural gas plant; a uranium mill; supporting gas wells; surface coal mines; surface and solutional uranium mines; and emission sources associated with population increases such as vehicles and residential and commercial heating and cooling. The focus of this section is on emissions of cri- teria pollutants from the energy facilities.3 Table 7-3 lists the amounts (in pounds per hour) of the five criteria pollutants emitted by each of the eight facilities. For the coal facilities, most of the emissions come from the plants rather than the mines. Most mine-related pollution will .originate from diesel engine combustion products, primarily nitrogen oxides (NOX), HC, and 1 Plume impaction occurs when stack plumes impinge on ele- vated terrain because of limited atmospheric mixing and stable air conditions. 2See National Climatic Center. Wind Dispersion by Pasquill Stability Classes, Star Program for Selected U.S. Cities.Ash- ville, N.C.: National Climatic Center, 1975. 3Air impacts associated with population increases are dis- cussed in Section 7.2.3 as they relate to the scenario (which includes all facilities constructed according to the hypothesized schedule). 499 ------- particulates. Although water spray will be used to suppress dust, some additional particulates will occur from blasting, coal piles, and blowing dust.1 Except for HC the power plant is the greatest contributor of pollutants in all cases. Both the Synthoil plant and the natural gas wells exceed the power plant in HC emissions (Table 7-3). The largest of the primary emission sources, the power plant, will have four 750 megawatt-electric (MWe) boilers, each with its own stack.2 The plant will be equipped with an electrostatic pre- cipitator (ESP) which will remove 99 percent of particulates and a scrubber which will remove 80 percent of the S02.3 Scrubbers are thought to remove some'of the NOX generated in the boiler, but the amount removed is uncertain. These data represent a range of 0 to 40 percent NOX removal. The plant's two 75,000 barrel oil storage tanks (standard floating roof construction) will each emit up to 0.7 pound of HC per hour. Table 7-4 lists the amounts of particulates, S02, and NOX expected to be emitted (per million British thermal units [Btu'sj) from a power plant operating under the previously described con- ditions. When compared with federal New Source Performance Stan- dards (NSPS), the particulates and S02 emitted more than meet these standards.1* Whether or not NOX emissions will meet standards depends on the quantity of NOX removed by scrubbers. At least 22 percent of the total will have to be removed to meet the standard. To meet federal NSPS for particulates and S02, the 3,000 MWe power plant would require 97.5 percent particulate removal; no S02 re- moval would be required.5 The effectiveness of current dust suppression practices is uncertain. Research being conducted by the Environmental Protec- tion Agency (EPA) is investigating this question. The issue of fugitive dust is discussed qualitatively in Chapter 10. 2Stacks are 500 feet high, have an exit diameter of 30.0 feet, mass flow rates of 2.56 x 106 cubic feet per minute, an exit velocity of 60 feet per second, and an exit temperature of 180° Fahrenheit. 3These efficiencies were hypothesized as reasonable esti- mates of current industrial practices. ''NSPS limit the amount of a given pollutant a stationary source may emit; the limit is expressed relative to the amount of energy in the fuel burned. 5Section 109 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685, requires both an emissions limitation and a percentage reduction of S02, particulates, and NOX. Revised standards have not yet been established by the EPA. 500 ------- TABLE 7-3: EMISSIONS FROM FACILITIES (pounds per hour) FACILITIES 3,000 MWe Power Plant Mine3 Plant Lurgi Mine Plant Synthane Mine Plant Synthoila Mine Plant 25 MMtpy Export Coal Mine (rail) 25 MMtpy Coal Mine (slurry) Natural Gas Production/Processing Uranium Surface Mine (open pit) Mill Solutional Mine-Mill PARTICULATES 12. 6b 1,196 N 6b 8 10b 482 13b 13b 2 36 lb 40 N S02 8.3 6,440 4.6 516 4 3,524 6.8 936.7 8.3 8.3 468 8.9 1.03 N NOX 0.5 15,812- 26,353° 62 649 54 5,052 92 4,616 113 113 655 123 0.3 N HC 69 440 39 47d 33 94d 56 1,350 69 69 1,000 U 0.05 U CO 13.1 1,464 7.3 N 6.3 176 11 181 13 13 2 93.4 U N SOa = sulfur dioxide CO = carbon monoxide MMtpy = million tons NOX = oxides of nitrogen MWe = megawatt-electric per year HC = hydrocarbons N = negligible U = unknown aSynthoil data have a high uncertainty because of the small capacity of bench scale, test facilities built to date. The Solvent Refined Coal liquefaction process now appears likely to become commercial sooner, and more reliable pilot plant data are available. These data are reported in White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, B.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming, Chap- ter 3. °These particulate emissions do not include fugitive dust. cRange represents NOX removal of 0 to 40 percent. ^These emissions do not include fugitive hydrocarbons. 501 ------- TABLE 7-4: COMPARISON OF EMISSIONS FROM POWER PLANT WITH NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS (pounds per million Btu) POWER PLANT Particulates S02 N0xb EMISSION 0.04 0.22 0.54-0.90 NSPS 0.1 1.2 0.7 NSPS = New Source Performance Standards Btu = British thermal unit S02 = sulfur dioxide NO = oxides of nitrogen The Wyoming State standard for S02 emissions is 0.2 pounds per million Btu. Data from White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report"Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming, Chapter 2. Range represents 0 to 40 percent NOX removal by the scrubber. All the coal conversion facilities and the power plant will be cooled by wet forced-draft cooling towers. Each of the various cells in the cooling towers circulates water at a rate of 15,330 gallons per minute (gpm) and emits 0.01 percent of its water as a mist. The circulating water has a total dissolved solids (TDS) content of 3,870 parts per million (ppm). This resuilts in a salt emission rate of 24,600 pounds per year for each cell.1 Emissions of criteria pollutants from uranium surface and solutional mines and milling technologies are negligible (Table 7-3). Radioactive emissions from uranium surface mining include primarily radon gas (Rn-222) and its daughters. The amount of Rn-222 released into the atmosphere is a function of the amount of overburden and mine surface and varies with mining rates. For a 1,200 ton per day (tpd) mine,2 Rn-222 gas release would be about 33.2 curies per year.3 :In the scenario, the power plant has 64 cells, the Lurgi plant has 11, the Synthane plant has 6, and the Synthoil plant has 16. 20ne thousand two hundred short tons is about equivalent to 1,100 metric tons. 3White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming, Chapter 5. 502 ------- Because uranium solutional mining techniques are still in the research and development stage, data on this process are not complete. Information available on the air emissions of a solu- tional uranium mine is qualitative and represents gaseous emis- sions for alkaline leach, solutional uranium mining. The primary gaseous emissions are likely to be carbon dioxide (COa), ammonia (NH3), ammonium chloride (NH^Cl), and uranium oxide (\J3O8).1 The primary radioactive air emissions from the 1,000 tpd uranium mill are Rn-222, estimated to be about 9,000 curies per year.2 7.2.3 Impacts This section describes air quality impacts which result from each type of energy facility (Lurgi, Synthane, Synthoil, power plant, natural gas plant, uranium facilities, and coal transport by rail and slurry pipeline) taken separately3 and from a scenario which includes construction of all facilities according to the scenario schedule. For the power plant the effect on air quality of the hypothesized emission control, alternative emission con- trols, and alternative stack heights are discussed. Interactions among facilities and impacts caused by the expected population increase are included in the scenario impact discussion. The focus is on concentrations of criteria pollutants (particulates, S02, NOX/ HC, and CO). See Chapter 10 for a qualitative descrip- tion of sulfates, other oxidants, fine particulates, long-range visibility, plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, and cooling tower fogging and icing. In all cases, air quality impacts result primarily from the operation rather than the construction of these facilities. Con- struction impacts are limited to periodic increases in particulate concentrations due to windblown dust. However, since the highest particulate measurements do not exceed either federal or Wyoming standards, blowing dust should not cause particulate problems. A. Power Plant Impacts For power plants, concentrations of criteria pollutants de- pend greatly on the degree of emission control imposed. Concen- trations resulting from the hypothesized case in which control :White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report^Washington, D.C.:U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,forthcoming, Chapter 5. 2 Ibid. 3Air quality impacts caused by the surface coal mines are expected to be negligible in comparison with impacts caused by the conversion facilities. However, the impact of fugitive dust originating from mines is uncertain and is discussed qualita- tively in Chapter 10. 503 ------- equipment removes 80 percent of the SO2 and 99 percent of the particulates are discussed first followed by a discussion of the effect of alternative emission controls and alternative stack heights. (1) Hypothesized Emission Control Table 7-5 summarizes the typical and peak concentrations of four pollutants predicted to be produced by the power plant (3,000 MWe, 500 foot stack, 80 percent SOa removal, and 99 percent partic- ulate removal). These pollutants (particulates, SOa , NOX, and HC) are regulated by federal and Wyoming state standards (Table 7-5). Peak concentrations from the power plant and its mine are not ex- pected to violate any federal or Wyoming ambient air standards. Table 7-5 also lists prevention of significant deterioration (PSD) standards, which are the allowable increments of pollutants that can be added to areas of relatively clean air (i.e., areas with air quality better than that allowed by ambient air stan- dards) .1 "Class I" designation is intended to protect air quality in the cleanest areas, such as national parks and forests, and Class III allows deterioration to the level of national ambient secondary standards. No Class II increments are violated by the power plant. However, several Class I increments are exceeded. When combined with its associated mine, peak concentrations from the plant ex- ceed all short-term (24-hour or less) Class I increments. In addition, typical 3-hour S02 levels from the power plant equal the allowable Class I increment. Since Class I increments are violated by this facility, it would have to be located a sufficient distance from any desig- nated Class I areas to allow dilution of emissions by atmospheric mixing to allowable concentrations prior to their reaching that area. The distance required for this dilution, which varies by facility type, size, emission controls, and meteorological con- ditions, establishes what is in effect a "buffer zone" around Class I areas. Current EPA regulations would require a buffer zone of about 44 miles between the power plant and a Class I boundary.2 Currently, there is no designated Class I area with- in this buffer zone. :PSD standards apply only to particulates and SOa. 2Buffer zones around energy facilities will not be symmet- rical because wind direction and strength vary by area and season. Hence, the direction of Class I areas from energy facilities will be critical to the size of the buffer zone required. Note also that the term buffer zone is in disfavor. 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II >1 0 rH C QJ QJ ii x: x; ro re TT xj IN [fi 3 Tl -P O U QJ D1 D fO z s x: n-f x: e jJ O M JJ GJ O •H XI IH E UJ (0 C CM O QJ (0 C M jj jj x: ra >, MH tT3 C -P U Cn S GJ h LO H -H )-t XI 0) c -P jq Q> o c 0 W E X H w M QJ 1 3 C 4J 01 p P MH 0) x: EH to p 01 aQ JD 3 p U 01 O >, Z X) o c JJ 01 •a o 0) P fN JJ JJ P -H P OJ C OJ > JJ C P a o o ro o x: 01 U 0) 0) • P 13 13 ro -P oj CT X > C 01 O O •P 01 E E u w 01 0 P OP U 3 x; O I-H o] jj 01 ro -P P > O JJ O OJ w-4 C EC ro 01 o iH PC >, a O 0) Ul c E x; 01 0) O JJ E E C HO) rOjJXICr'^ 3 O JJ O3 ro JJ GJ IH QJ 4J nj O 0 X3 1 S-* CXl QJEC-H O"1 TJ M v£> 0 GJ Tl -H QJ JJ JJ O GJ •H DO) QJJJEGJlO IH COjD JJ rH cx: ^cuojjjcefo QJ OJJ CTilH--jJ H 03 jj o ocu-o C-HCTD QJ QJ'-P-HCJlH JJ QJ TJ rH X3 JJ CH-H PJ M-l C-Tl rH QJC^nSC DEC 3 jj >oro ajMai-Hi-- 30 K C GJJJ-H «4-iQjrH>rtJ LO COU US rrj rH Qj QJ>J_)>-IJJ GJ COQJ QJ 0 IT! inrOrOMCTJ rOcn E -H TJ QJ QJ £ QJ -H y~i CMX; = i-i o • E x OQJ 10 •H 3QJJJ >,OrHQJC O 3X1 -H C OTi Mn-JrHjJQ JJJJ tP iH-HOrOra-HiHrH TS •H CniOJJ TiW XI -H rH LO— iH CO C CTlQJS>fCjJT3iT3 QJ TJOGJ Oi^X C CCLl T! ^T! GJCJiH UrOjJ£pJ jJ QJ> C O-HJJJ2 QJTi O TO in O fO X UGJro co.CCl)iH'» X CUE JJ CO -HMJJ =rOr-iMH. jJ ^Q) LO O-HTDfCS JJrOcO Q-i-i HTJ OXJT3tn CU • T) QJ U JJ M tfi H C COiHO QJ rHCO K CM Qj-Hln tD'HTSfO £ -H fCi-l VJ CJ^OJ-PrHJ-l 3GJi-l rHrHrJ rH 3 M rH i>t ' > >4-< d)>4-J E <; fQ (0 •» U] !ji 4J 3 3tOO fCOD TO ^3 Ol-H MOJH3 >iT3-P- tn CC O OD£ Dj-^O 3 O i-i 3 fOrH M CT3U it d3QJ£ •HCt C 1 XI C 4r 04^ >.fC«rOT3- i-i U 1 4JC^r C^I"C 1 G'OrHc^-UOiO ^ ro ^ < rsj IM< rsr^ fN^n.r- \|\| )\| CCCOJ -HrHtOCU -H W QJ tO O O U1 OJ^Cn^lDCO'' -HO-QJ d< CO Z E Q'N.COi-itaJ>QcD,C-iJ.C £ ' 0.1O H^TO =-HUlJ^O M HO H 505 ------- Reductions in background visibility (currently, about 70 miles) may occur infrequently on a short-term basis to between 3 and 10 miles, depending on the amount of S02 converted to par- ticulates in the atmosphere.1 (2) Alternative Emission Controls The base case control for the Gillette power plant assumed an S02 scrubber efficiency of 80 percent and an ESP efficiency of 99 percent. The effect on ambient air concentrations of three additional emission control alternatives is illustrated in Table 7-6. These alternatives include a 95 percent efficient S02 scrubber in conjunction with a 99 percent efficient ESP, an 80 percent efficient SOz scrubber without an ESP, and an alternative in which neither a scrubber nor an ESP is utilized. An examination of Table 7-6 reveals that removal of partic- ulate control results in violations of Class II PSD increments for 24-hour and annual total suspended particulates (TSP) and and National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) 24-hour TSP standards. If no scrubber is utilized, violations of Class II PSD increments for 3-hour and 24-hour S02 emissions and NAAQS for 3-hour S02 emissions result. No violations result from the base case of 80 percent S02 efficient scrubber and an ESP. (3) Alternative Stack Heights In order to examine the effects of alternative stack heights on ambient air quality in the Gillette scenario, worst-case dis- persion modeling was carried out for a 300-foot stack (lowest stack height consistent with good engineering practice) , a 500- foot stack (an average or most frequently used height) , and a 1,000-foot stack (a highest stack height). The results of this examination are shown in Table 7-7. Using a 300-foot stack, the Gillette power plant can operate within all applicable standards. (4) Summary of Power Plant Air Impacts A 3,000 MWe power plant with a 500 foot stack, 80 percent SOz removal, and 99 percent particulate removal can meet all ap- plicable standards (NAAQS, Wyoming, and Class II PSD increments). The same plant with a 300 foot stack will also meet applicable standards. Without a scrubber or particulate control, the plant would violate all Class II PSD increments (except that for annual and several NAAQS. 1 Short-term visibility impacts were investigated using a "box-type" dispersion model. This particular model assumes all emissions occurring during a specified time interval are uniformly mixed and confined in a box capped by a lid or stable layer aloft. A lid of 500 meters was used. S02 to sulfate conversion rates of 10 percent and 1 percent were modeled. 506 ------- w > H EH < w < EH i-l H] ft < 2 EH H EH EH W CO H S° EH CO ft, EH U CO < m ft O Si OH H EH EH U H D H Oco CO PH H H S < W W ni a EH CO g \ tn 3. • — s 0 H EH «< Pi EH !3 W O l"5» 1 U EH EH O ni ni o ft s D g H X < s ^^ o\P ni o Oi EH 2 O U Pn 0 EH O s 1^ ft CO EH ni < D 2 S < ft CO EH » Oi ffi 1 'sr CN CM O CO Hi < D 2 2 < CN O CO • Oi ffi 1 T CN Osl O CO • oi w i n ft CO EH O CO • ^ • • oooo moocn •=3* 'a* r~- vo vo rH r^ r- • • ctf crj oooooo oo o r~» r^ m IJD in in ro OO 00 CN ro n m »• . . •H rH rH CQ CO -p g G ££°° < g w m 3 § 2 M <: o EH CO C co nd H ~— M W >i fd Q ni ^- M rd co m >i rd c cu H mooo H go co H en oo oo i_q -HO ft CO M CU CU CO ft o a CQ +j co < 1 -p •H rH rd 3 -P O C rd M U •H -H < 4-1 •H -P C G cr> 0) -H -H CQ n 1 m G -P O •H G G -H -P fd OJ !H rd 4J > CU 2 co cu -P in CU n at! CO \|\| 0 < Q rtl co 2 ft M CO CU CU -p -p cu rd g rH 3 U U •H -H •9 -J 3 M o rd a M CU t) a cu cu T3 T3 r£j CO -H C CU g X CU M rti o a cu M -H CQ t> tnt) 3 -H O CQ CQ MM C 0 3 rH O -H m rd M D g rH -P 3 3 O O -P II CQ -p x! O C m II II II g II \ CM (X\| I tno co oi U 3. CO EH ffi 2 0) M I 3 cu O -P XI M id -P -P M O 0) G cu a-H H g CU CU CU .p CO O rd • G X CU G 0 M 0 X! fd O -H O -P G -P •H CQ -H rd X! M > CU --I -P X! --I G C -P rd CU -H gO •P CO G CO rd O CU X! fd O CO 4J rd CQ ft O -P CU CO 0 0 EH O rd 3 > 4H T3 M -P O CU 0) M. £ cu x: a o XI -P rH -P X! 0 U >i M -P -H rH O X! -P n-i cu > x! _j *\ r~l tji CQ XI 'H G fd M £ -H CU O 4J 4-1 -H CQ O 4-1 -p CU CU •H rd CQ 4-1 Q 4J -H 4-1 fJ CO In d) 507 ------- TABLE 7-7: AIR QUALITY IMPACTS RESULTING FROM ALTERNATIVE STACK HEIGHTS AT GILLETTE POWER PLANT SELECTED STACK HEIGHTS (feet) 300 500 1,000 APPLICABLE STANDARDS NAAQS (primary) (secondary) State standards Class II PSD Increments MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION (yg/m3) 3-HR. S02 342 323 290 1,300 1,300 512 24-HR. S02 55 47 31 365 260 91 24-HR. TSP 10 8.7 5.7 260 150 150 37 yg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter HR. = hour SO2 = sulfur dioxide TSP = total suspended particulates NAAQS = National Ambient Air Quality Standards PSD = prevention of significant deterioration B. Lurgi Impacts Typical and peak concentrations from the operation of a Lurgi gasification plant are summarized in Table 7-8. Peak concentra- tions are not expected to violate any federal or Wyoming ambient air standards nor any Class II PSD increments. However, peak S02 concentrations from the Lurgi plant exceed the 3-hour Class I PSD increment. These PSD violations will require a buffer zone of 7.4 miles for the plant. Currently there is no designated Class I area within this buffer zone. The effects of alternative stack heights for a Lurgi gasifi- cation plant on ambient air concentrations are shown in Table 7-9. No violations of applicable standards will occur with any of the boiler/dryer stack height combination alternatives. A reduction in short-term visibility from current background visibility of 70 miles to between 17 and 60 miles may occur in- frequently, depending on the amount of SOz converted to partic- ulates in the atmosphere. 508 ------- w EH EH H u 00 I to Q 2 < Q § EH n to Z o M s EH Z u z S o D EH Z H (0 s Cu H to < U H to to u u z t-H S o s > f^ Q z o u to >H oi rij 2J H K a EH EH 1-5 rJ M EH Z (J &. j U M CM ^ EH Q O K O u s £» E^ < 0 c^ 2 3 M J ^5 y »i o2 w § ^ r^ o »H rs rtl rfl iH m CN CT> •— 1 2 S in LD O CN m LO <3 <] r-t CN 2 2 O O O O O O O VD LO ^D ^D O O ViO rH (N fl i"H H rH O O O O O £> LO O O ^O r-l rO (H rH . rH m o o m o o P- i^ GO V£> O O fM CO rH rH rH TP O ~H rH z z ... O O rH O O ro VD o ro o Z Z ... •» in f- •» rH o ro ro I— 00 •» rH rH Ol 4J (0 M V4 3100 (OO3 ro 3 O343 D43O 3 0 •H C 1 C 1 43 C 43 •PC* C rr 1 u C 1 ^4 )rf f\j rN ^ f\j ff) rj ^I 'O ro ro o o u IX to Z 03 01 T3 •H X 0) O H -H 43 in •O 10 C U O C -rt 43 0) rH \|H o a o 14 10 O 4-1 IH •H 4-1 "O e o >i C 43 II II II (N 0 < U Z Z K c o in •H C 4-> 0 10 -H IH 4-1 o 10 •H IH 1H4-I a> c 4J 0) 01 O T3 C o 4-1 U c IBTS 0 C •H 3 -H IH C Oi O1.X -H O 0) 10 43 O) MH -a O IH -H 0 0 O -H •H -a 4-1 OJ C Oi ^ OJ C 3 > IB MH 0)43 rH (H 0 3 Q< in 0 II C II Q II N to o a. z to gasification plant. Annua ground levels. •H .V rji u tJ (0 3 43 •J E rH IH (0 O O 4J •H 1 4-1 4-1 O1 l-l 43 0 4-1 43 O in 0, >t MH 43 O 0) in 43 01 4J 4-> 10 £ E O -H IH 4-1 MH in Ol in C 4-1 O ra •H 0) Jj jQ 10 H Q) 4-1 43 C 4-1 0) O QJ C 43 O 0 0 4J rH 0) "O > O) OJ rH rH OJ 1 -O T! -H C in 3 C O O W U 0) T3 IH 0) 10 4J o in •r-l H tJ 0) (I) > 14 OJ 0^ rH 0) T) M C 10 3 0 0) H in 01 0) X 43 U E-i IB OJ 43 signed to protect public han the annual average are increments of pollutants These data are from Systems Report. Washington 0> 4-> 01 • T3 r-H in 4-1 IH 43 X C in OJ 10 M 0) T3 43 3 10 E IH 4-1 o a. &4 10 0 rH O r0 <-H "— I rH c in io n) oi ro o> c > -U E 0) O 0) 01 -H 43 -iH Q 4-> 4-1 4J >i 10 0) 4-> Oi QJ £3 U •rH C >H IH rH -H 10 Ul 3 10 O1 (0 O 3 io in in tr >H -a 43 a> 0) IH U (S Vi > 10 3 •H to 13 in >t ffl c Oi M ro - >H 4-> O 4-1 14 0) c MH in -r-i c O> (0 W •H in a 43 13 to e E IH PH to •• ro ro o> 4-1 T3 rH in i-H C • O OJ (0 10 rH S M 4-1 10 >i Q) in 0) rH Q) T3 >i 0) 43 0) rH > 4J MH rH ^4 -r4 < 0) 4-1 E o a ic o •P rH IH • 0) 0) b IH >l O IH 0) rH C >, MH 0) O MH O~ 01 > O >H >H -H C ^ O c Q) Oi <] c o H 4J o 0) 4-1 o & rH >-, 01 4-1 oi ro IH Qj )H 4-> io w a) ro • c T3 OJ SH rH c H o o ro O E 4-i O - 4-> 01 0) T3 "O 0) OJ E C o in W l-l Oi 0) -rt : IB -O T) > > tn OJ T3 • C T3rHOJIfllJ.il C OJ U 10 2 X 0) C » 0)'43 -H • s -O > tO ^i C OJ C IH • rj ro 43 ro M 3 10 O E43 0 •H 4J 4J 43 0) •• IH rH O -P • dc ro 4J -H -H CJ : Q) 0 43 43 • J3 43 C 3 S Q O Z 0 T) 0) 4J OJ C 0 O QJ ro in flj o iH 3 O in 4J c 10 rH a E 0 i_i MH C O O 4J .r-j C MH O in 0) •O -H X o rH rH ro 4-1 « 43 4_) •a 0) E 3 in ra 10 in •H 4-1 H U . E ro e\ i 4J ro 73 QJ 3 in ro 0) E in -H •a ro TJ c ro 4J in u as ^ 3 0 43 1 OJ 43 EH 509 ------- TABLE 7-9: AIR QUALITY IMPACTS RESULTING FROM ALTERNATIVE STACK HEIGHTS AT GILLETTE LURGI FACILITY SELECTED STACK HEIGHTS (feet) 150 (dryers) 400 (boilers) 300 (dryers) 500 (boilers) 450 (dryers) 700 (boilers) APPLICABLE STANDARDS NAAQS (primary) (secondary) State standards Class II PSD Increments MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION (yg/m3) 3-HR. S02 47 44 43 1,300 1,300 512 24-HR. SO2 4.9 4.6 2.8 365.0 260.0 91.0 24-HR. TSP N N N 260 150 150 37 yg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter HR. = hour SO2 = sulfur dioxide TSP = total suspended particulates N = no change over background concentrations NAAQS = National Ambient Air Quality Standards PSD = prevention of significant deterioration C. Synthane Impacts Table 7-10 summarizes typical and peak concentrations from the Synthane gasification plant. The plant does not violate any federal or Wyoming ambient air standards nor any Class II PSD increments. However, the peak plant concentrations violate Class I increments for annual, 24-hour, and 3-hour S02. These pollutant concentrations would require a buffer zone of less than 5 miles. Short-term visibility may be reduced from current background visibility of 70 miles to between 2 and 11 miles, depending on the amount of S02 converted to particulates in the atmosphere. 510 ------- U H Pn H o W o I r- w .a en a OH rt£ Q EH en en O tH r . 1 EH Z U CJ S Q 0, Z M J"? s 5 ^j s H tH en en 3 u H en < U O Z H S 0 3 a Q z o u pa en \| £ H IX CU H r^. PQ ^j J H U PLANT j ri ^ H S EH a o § u 03 POLLUTANT BRACING TIME < CT* t** O rH CN rH rO CN ON rH in in o CN in in rH CN O O O O O O O vjo in \o \o o o vo rH CN ro rH rH rH O O O O O rH rO rH rH h rH in o o in o o r* ^fl co ^o o vo CN rO rH rH in ^o ro CN CN Z Z ... rH TT 1~- CN O rH rH ro ro z • • o CN CN r ro «r rO CN rH ro rH in rH Z Z z in CN z ro ^D r- co ^< rH .H IB V4 M •H.H3 rH3lH rH M 3iBO iflO3 ro 3 O3Xi 3XIO 3 0 •H C 1 C 1 XI C XI 4J G-^ C • 1 4-l 0) o > o C XI O ro •H 4-1 CU c en CD c > IB CU XI U 0 a. o 1! C a n en cu z plant. Annual average levels. 01 10 73 en c 3 cu o C i-i 10 C^ XI ^ 4J O C 10 en £ rH Vl IB CU 0 4J •H \| 4J 4-1 0> M Xi O 4-1 XI a 01 >i 4-4 XI O 01 in XI 01 4J 4-1 10 e e O -H V4 4-) 14-1 01 CU in C 4-> O 01 •H 01 4J _Q Ifl M Q) 4J XI C 4J 01 O 01 c a 0 0 O 4J rH 01 73 > 01 01 1-4 rH 0) 1 73 73 -H c in 3 C O O l-l O en 01 73 M 01 fl 4J O 01 •H rH 73 Ol 0) > M 0) CUrH CU 73 M C (tf ,3 o 01 l-l 01 en 01 X x; u 6-i IB i in x: en 0) -P 0) • 73 rH in 4J M .n .* e in 01 IB H 01 73 XI 3 ifl E 1-1 4J o cu a IB 0 rH 0 73 rH rH rH C 01 IB (0 01 IB CU C > 4-1 E CU 0 1 (00) 4J en 0) c o •H C M -4 rH -H IB 01 3 iB Cn IB 0 3 IB 01 in O1 Vi 73 XI 0) CU M O « l-l > Ifl 3 •H 10 73 in >i IB C cr M IB - M 4J O 4-1 M 0) C X-l 01 -H C 01 10 U •H in Q XI 73 en c £ H CU IB •• IB ifl CU 4J 73 rH 01 rH C • O 0) (fl IB M 3 l-l 4-1 [fl >i 0) 01 Ol rH CD 73 > CU XI 01 rH > -P 14-1 rH M -H fiC CU 4-i E o a IB o 4-1 rH M • CU CU PL, S-l >i CJ U CU rH C >1 !4-i o> o HH en 1) > Ol-i M -H C 01 •p IB in c = 0 XI IB W CN l-l 01 4J a IB XI o * Cn c -H E 0 CJ x; 4-1 i-i 0 M-4 * >^ O c O) Cn <] c o •H 4J O CU 4J 0 Cu rH >i 0) 4J CD IB l-l CU S-i 4-1 IB 0) CU IB . C 73 CU V4 rH C l-l O O IB 0 E 4J O - 4J CU 0) 73 73 01 CU E c o l-l M M CU fl) -H = IB 73 73 » > t-l 0) 73 • C 73 rH 01 IB ,J W C 01 0 (B 3 X 0) C » CD XI -H • = 73 > C/l >i C 0 C M • )-l IB XI ifl M 3 IB CJ E x; o •H 4-1 4-1 £ 01 •• >H rH O 4J • CL, (0 4J -H -H CJ = 0) O XI XI • -a XI C ? 3 D . o z o 4-> 73 0) 4J ^1 0) £> c o 0 01 ^_t IB en 0) O <_4 3 o 01 4J c 10 rH a, e o ^1 14-4 c 0) en o l-l 4J •H c 14-1 0 in 0) 73 • H X o ^1 rH IB 4-1 IB XI 4-1 73 01 3 U 01 ifl 01 -H 4J M U E IB o> 1 \£ 4-> 10 73 01 ^1 3 01 IB 01 E en • r^ 73 l-l ifl 73 C 10 4J 01 ------- D. Synthoil Impacts Table 7-11 lists typical concentrations from the Synthoil plant, peak concentrations from the plant, and peak concentra- tions from the plant and mine combination. These data show that the only federal and state ambient air quality violation will be the 3-hour HC ambient standard. HC concentrations resulting from the Synthoil plant greatly exceed those allowed. The Synthoil plant does not violate any Class II PSD incre- ments, but the plant and mine combination violates all Class I increments for S02. These pollutant concentrations would require a buffer zone of 13 miles for the Synthoil plant. The effects of alternative stack heights for a Synthoil plant on ambient air concentrations are shown in Table 7-12. With a 100-foot stack (the lowest alternative stack height), no appli- cable standards would be violated. Worst-case impacts on short-term visibility, expected to occur infrequently, may reduce background visibility of 70 miles to between 10 and 28 miles, depending on the amount of SOa con- verted to particulates in the atmosphere. E. Coal Rail Transport Impacts Table 7-13 summarizes the concentrations of four pollutants predicted to be produced by the strip mine for coal rail trans- port. The data indicate that the strip mine will not violate any federal or state ambient standards. Peak concentrations attributable to the strip mine for coal rail transport do not exceed allowable Class II increments. How- ever, the Class I increments for 24-hour and 3-hour SOa and 24- hour particulates are violated. Current EPA regulations would require a buffer zone of less than 5 miles between this facility and a Class I area boundary. F. Coal Slurry Pipeline Impacts Typical and peak concentrations from the operation of the strip mine supporting the coal slurry pipeline are summarized in Table 7-14. Air impacts from this strip mine are expected to be similar to those produced by the strip mine for coal rail trans- port shown in Table 7-13. Peak concentrations are not expected to violate any federal or Wyoming ambient air standards. No Class II increments are violated by the strip mine. How- ever, several Class I increments are exceeded by this facility. Peak concentrations exceed all short-term (24-hour or less) Class I increments. These PSD violations will require a buffer zone of less than 5 miles for the strip mine, according to current EPA regulations. 512 ------- TABLE 7-12: AIR QUALITY IMPACTS RESULTING FROM ALTERNATIVE STACK HEIGHTS AT GILLETTE SYNTHOIL PLANT SELECTED STACK HEIGHTS (feet) 100 200 300 APPLICABLE STANDARDS NAAQS (primary) (secondary) State standards Class II PSD increments MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION (ug/m3) 3-HR. S02 140 109 83 1,300 1,300 512 24-HR. S02 49 31 21 365 260 91 24-HR. TSP 10 6 4.2 260 150 150 37 yg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter HR. = hour S02 = sulfur dioxide TSP = total suspended particulates NAAQS = National Ambient Air Quality Standards PSD = prevention of significant deterioration G. Natural Gas Impacts Table 7-15 summarizes the concentrations of four pollutants predicted to be produced by the natural gas wells. These pol- lutants (S02, particulates, N02, and HC) are regulated by federal and Wyoming state standards. The data show that, while typical concentrations from the natural gas wells do not violate ambient standards, peak concentrations may exceed both the federal and state HC standards by a factor of more than six. Peak concentrations from the natural gas wells do not exceed allowable Class II increments. However, the Class I standards for 3-hour and 24-hour S02 are exceeded. This PSD violation would require a buffer zone of less than 5 miles between this facility and a Class I area boundary according to current EPA regulations. 514 ------- CO EH ro H I r^ W ^ CO Q K (^ a EH CO to CO z 0 rH § EH M U Z o CJ O EH Z U H m £ « H ft M H CO CO < CJ M CO s CJ u a H 5* O S >H S D a o u CO S £ B; Oj 1 u ^ M O u a H S CJ H X EH a 5 o IX ^ u m i POLLUTANT BRACING TIME < C"l ("* O rH CM rH CO CM CTl rH in in o i—t rn^ rH i— i rH m o o m o o (N m iH r- 1 rH CN rH • 1 • o o o o o o o m (N . . O 1 r; 0) rH 1 rrj C 3 O V_t CP •O 0) JJ u •H T3 CO VH a 0) VH IB 0) 0) JC EH CO 0) -p (B E •H JJ in 01 jj 10 01 X) 01 JC JJ CO XI o JJ T3 0) VH CD T3 •H 01 C O o CO M (T] 01 rH 0) J> a> rH •a c 3 o VH CP y U 10 J3 CO CT> 10 VH 0) 10 rH n) 3 C C •H rH XI 3 a. JJ 0 0) jj 0 VH CU O JJ •O O) c CP •H 01 0) •o 01 tj VH 10 fi 10 JJ 01 >1 JJ -H rH 10 3 tr VH •rH 10 JJ E CO • H J3 E IB rH (0 ^j 0) 0) MH O JJ VH 01 MH 0) VH s ^, VH 10 •O E O O to E T3 C 10 s r>1 VH 10 E •H VH a, ; J3 n the annual average 10 JC JJ VH 0) XI JJ o 01 0) E •rl JJ CP E •H CP IB VH Ol > 18 VH O MH 01 T3 VH IB T3 C 10 JJ to rH rH £ • >^ rH 0) ^ •rl JJ O Ol a. 01 O) ^ ^ CO VH IB MH rH 0) s •a c IB JC JJ rH IB 0) JC le increments of pol- forests. These data ja IB rH S 18 O E rH 0 rH -H 10 JJ IB 01 B JC JJ 10 18 01 VH JC (8 O 3 01 01 •O VH - 18 VH •O-H fi tB iB •P C 01 10 Oi Q rH CO O CM ,>! rH • 0) VH > 18 -rl 01 -P >i 10 rH VJ 01 Oi VH a MH 01 O o C 01 O (0 0) C VH 10 JC •P O JJ 01 VH T3 O 01 E-D •O IB 0) T3 0) CO £. 0) o c X IB 0! U CO X! ja o •H O JC •P S -P 01 O -P C C 10 CO -P VH 3 IB rH JJ VH O a 01 K to 0) JJ 01 >1 t/1 JJ c CO a 0 rH CO > CO Q 5) 0 VH 3 O 01 0) K :* en VH 01 B W • « jJ to CO u 01 JC jj c 0 VH [n >i CP VH 01 C CM VH 01 jJ a IB XI u ^ CP B •H E O O JC JJ VH O MH h >^ O B 0) CP fi O •H JJ O CO JJ o VH Cu rH 10 JJ E CO E • C rH IB JJ 01 O VH •H £> B ^ . h. tj * W C • -H D ^ VH H •• . -U 0) • •P Q •H JC •• u c o E J-> 0 CP rl C MH -H JC 01 01 M IB IB a O Z O JJ •a CO rH Ol s B o o CO VH 10 01 0) u VH 3 0 01 JJ B IB rH a e o VH MH E 01 CP o VH JJ • rl B MH O 0) Ol t) •H X o rH rH 10 4J 10 JC 4J •a o> E 3 01 to 10 01 -H JJ M U ( E 10 en 1 jJ 10 •a <1) VH g 01 IB CO E 01 -H T3 VH tO •O E tO JJ to U X VJ 3 O XI 1 n CO JC EH 515 ------- o u w s H cm H Pi EH Cfl o ^ & rH fa 0) -P tt) 0) s w e O EH H EH U EH W -rH EH H U S O W M U EH CU U O H EH D i-H1 h^ O H ttl O rH U •1-1 g I r- .D W Q K < Q EH cn re cn Z o H EH EH H U Z o u Q cn a. EH z u M £9 jj Jin < u H H W < r3 CJ H w w < r— 5 u u z H S o Sj »^H •x ONDAR U W w >H a i EH a z o 0 « o £C rf ^ CO K) £ fH H Z ^ gi 3 M j o 21 > < Cn r~ O rH CM rH n CN Cn I-H in in o CN in in i-H CN o o o o o o o V£> in VD VD O O VD rH CN CO rH rH - rH O O O O O VD in o o VD rH m rH l-l " rH in o o in o o r~~ VD co VD o VD CN fl rH rH rH rH rH O O O O O O O ro CN cn O CN O 00 CO IN CT> rH f "» co in in VD ro o m """ r- co r rH rH D 4-1 CO ^1 iH rHrH3 rH3>^ rH l-l 3COO COO3 CO 3 U3Xi 3xiO 3 O •H C 1 C 1 X! C Xi 4J C T C •=»• l o C 1 rl •o •H X 0 -H 13 C fl) en o IH 4-1 •H c II (N, o z c o • H 4-1 10 IH O •rt IH D 4-1 D •O 4-1 C 10 O -H M-l •H C Cn •H in IH O C O •H 4J C 0) > 0) M a ii D 1/2 Cu in c 0 XI IH 10 CJ O IH -C >. x: II U X O) 13 -H X o -H 13 ^ 3 UH rH 3 in II CN, O cn C o •H rH rH •H E in CN rH IB O -H 4-1 0) Xi 4-J 0 a >, x; 0) x: 4-1 e o u MH in c O •H 4-1 10 IH -U C 01 o c o u rH 01 > 0) rH 1 -a c 3 O IH Cn 13 0) 4J O •H •a V M a O) n 10 0) in fl) X! EH n 0) xi 4-> 01 XI o 4-> 13 0) l-l 0) •a •H in C o o 0) M IB in rH 01 > fl) rH •a c 3 O Vj en X. 0 CO XI 0) Cn iO H 0) > CO rH CO 3 c C < • 0) e -H rH >1 ri l-l 3 rH in rH 18 O u \ fl) c H E • in rH 01 > 0) iH TJ C 3 O M Cn X 0 CO XI e l-l 4) 4-1 1 4-1 H O xi in to protect public e annual average are ments of pollutants ese data are from T3 01 C Cr •H in fl) 73 in T3 )H 10 13 C ifl 4J in >< 4-1 •iH r-l a 3 CT IH • H (0 4-1 C 0) • H XI E c8 rH IB IH 01 T3 fl) MH O 4-> IH 0) IH D l-l c >i l-l 10 T3 O O 0) in E T) C 10 s >i l-l ID •H IH Cu .c £. 0) 4-1 IH O C C CO -H x; 4-1 0) r-i M XI 0) CO x; s 4J 0 O rH rH in ifl fl) E 0) •H Xi 4-1 4-1 Cn 0) C iH -H CO en ifl in IH 13 0) IH > co CO "O C rl (0 O 4J VH in in D 13 cn IH O. IB •O C • IB Vj 4J IB in CD >i rH H IH < 0) O, • 0! >i U i-l C fl) O > •H C 4-1 CO u x; fl) 4J a in D 0) IH MO 0) T3 IH 0) (fl iD MH fl) rH 0) fl) O 3 X 0) 13 C 0) It) X! x; o 4-1 4-1 rH ro 4-> fl) O X! C Xi EH , in 4-1 in 0) M O IH rH Ifl c O •H 4J CO c in Ifl x; o 3 in ^ M -H CO C CO 0) rH o >, l-l 0> > •H 4J IB rH 01 l-l UH O in ro fl) IH co O 4-1 T3 0) irj T3 id 0) XI c CO CJ x: o •H s: s Report. Washinq- E 01 4J in >i cn 4-1 C 0) E a o rH 0) > 0) Q 0) O i-l 3 O in 0) CU >i Cn IH 0) C w 4-> in 0) 0) x; 4-1 E o H b. >i Cn l-l 0) c u . INI IH 0) 4-1 a CO x; CJ fc en c •H E o o 4-) IH o MH ^ >1 u c 0) Cn < c o H 4J 0 a> 4-1 o i-i CL4 rH It) 4J C 0) c o • M rHl-H 18 5 4-1 W fl)l fc , • cn A • ID •H > " H • M CJ ' D 0) 4J ~ H C x: o S -u ^ o z o 4J rrj 0) 4J IH 0) > c o D 0) i^ CO in 0) o u 3 O in 4-1 c IB rH a E o l-l UH c 01 Cn O k 4-1 •H C MH O in 0) •a -H X O rH rH ID 4J Ifl x; 4J TJ 0) 2 in ------- O in rH I r^ W ^ D a (^ Q Z ^ EH CO re to Z O M 1 Z CJ z 0 CJ Q CO EH Z H § H s SM OS ON DA U M CO 1 E fH « EH EH s (-( O f-( 2: . rH O O O O O VD in O O VO rH rO i— 1 rH in o o in o o CN ro i— 1 rH o o o o o o o VD O O * 4 • o o o ^r in o r^ T-H m co o rH IN O ro -^ VD rH in r- OQ «r rH rH D 4J ra in to T-i rH 3 rH 3 l-l rH IH 3fOO 10 O 3 rt) 3 0 3 X 3X0 3 O -H C 1 C 1 X C X -PC-* C •» 1 0 c 1 ro o o u 0< CO Z 33 tt) 13 •H X o •H 01 T3 C 0 C £i tt) IH en ro o u !M 0 -H 'O c >^ s: n n o u z s c o • H 4J 10 O -H )H tt) 4J 0) 13 4-) C 0 -H V4H -H £ tP •H 01 tt) UH 13 O -H X C O O -H •H T3 4J C iH 0) 3 > <4H 4) rH r4 3 a ra II II Cl ~ CO O IX CO Annual average background 01 . rH n 4) o > •H 4) 4J rH U 3 T3 'O C 0 3 IH O a to en oi j<: ro o O"1 fO .a rH to to 3 tt) 4J -P ro i C 4J to E 0 O X r-4 01 MH MH 01 O C O 01 •H tt) -P 4-> ro ro to E 4-1 -H C -P tt) 01 O tt) C O -P CJ 01 1) •H .a D > w (D X rH 4J 1 13 (D C .0 3 O O IH 4-1 tn •a •D tt) 4) to -P 4) U 13 -H -H 13 0) 4) C to O a u EH tt) re rH gned to protect public n the annual average are ncrements of pollutants These data are from stems Report. Washington, •H ro -H . >, 0) X 01 K) 0) 4J 4) 4-1 •O rH 01 4J Wl rQ tt) C 01 4) ro >H tt) 13 X 3 0 E iH 4-) O MH D- ro o -H o TJ rH rH rH c to ro ro 4) ro D c > 4-> E tt) 0 0) 01 -H X -H Q 4-1 4J 4J >i ro 4) 4J Oi 4) C O •H C to to rH -H ro 01 3 ro en ro o 3 ro 01 01 CT M T3 X 4) D >H o ca M > ro 3 •H ro 13 01 >, ro c en >H ro - >H 4J O 4J IH tt) C MH 01 -H C tt) ro w •H 01 Q J3 t) W C E >H &< tfl " ro ro ID -P T3 rH 01 iH C • U tt) ro ro -4 s IH -P ro >i 4) ra 4) rH 4) 13 >, 4) X tt) rH > 4J UH rH iH -H < 0) 4J E o a ro o -P rH ,4 • tt) tt) [t4 M >1 CJ r4 0) rH C >1 MH tt) O MH tT1 tt) > O IH H -H C 0) 4-1 (0 01 C r o x ro w {N V\| D -u a ro r^ U h t^ c -H E O CJ 4-1 ^j 0 . ^ CJ c 4) tT> ^ C 0 -H 4-1 U 4) 4J O r4 C^ r-l >, 4) -P 4) 10 M a i-i 4J ro m 4) ro > c •O 4) r-l -H c to o o ro O E 4-> 0 ~ 4J tt) tt) 13 13 tt) tt) E c 0 01 >H 4) 4) -H = ro 13 13 > MH 4) 13 • C 13 rH 4) ro -J w C 4) CJ rd 3 X 4) C » 4) .Q -rH • - 13 t* C/l >-i C 4) C IH • to ro x ro M D ro u e x o -rH 4J -P X tt) •• IH rH CJ 4J . Cl< ro 4-1 -H -H U : 4) O X X • ,0 X C 3 S D o z 0 4J 13 4) 4-1 t4 4) > £ O CJ 0) M ro 01 tt) CJ IH 3 O 01 4-1 C ro r-H p. e o IH UH C tt) Cn O IH 4-1 -H C MH O 01 tt) 13 • H X 0 rH rH ro 4J ro 4-1 13 D E 3 01 01 ro 01 •H -p M O . E ro (Tt 1 VD 4J ro 13 4) to 3 01 ro 4) E 01 • H ------- H. Uranium Surface and Solutional Mines and Mill Impacts Since emissions of criteria pollutants from uranium facilities are negligible in comparison to those from coal facilities, ura- nium facility emissions were not modeled. The primary radioactive isotope emitted from uranium milling is Rn-222. There is no fed- eral standard for allowable Rn-222 air concentrations. A rule of thumb value commonly used as an acceptable level is one pico- curie per liter (pCi/£) of air (1 picocurie is equal to 10 ~2 curies). Thus, the ambient air concentrations that would result from a 9,000 curie per year emission rate are not known. I. Scenario Impacts (1) To 1980 The hypothetical strip mine for coal rail transport and the natural gas wells will become operational in 1980, and the town of Gillette is expected to increase its population from 14,000 to 26,650 by I960.1 This increase will contribute to increases in pollution concentrations from urban sources. Pollution from energy-related population increases will result largely from ad- ditional automobile traffic. Concentrations have been estimated from available data on average emissions per person in several western cities. Table 7-16 shows predicted concentrations of five criteria pollutants measured at the center of the town and at a point 3 miles from the center of town.2 The calculations indicate that pollution from urban sources will only exceed standards from HC. It should be noted that HC standards are violated regularly in most urban areas. (2) To 1990 By 1990, the power plant, coal slurry pipeline, Lurgi gas- ification plant, all associated coal mines, and the uranium fa- cilities will become operational. Interactions of the pollutants from the plants are minimal due to the assumed distances between them. If the wind blows directly from one plant to another, plumes may interact. However, concentrations which result are less than those produced by either plant and mine combination when the wind blows from the plant to the mine (peak plant/mine concentration). The maximum pollutant concentrations resulting from the interaction of the power plant and Lurgi gasification Section 7.4.3. 2Pollution concentrations from population increases were computed under the assumption that urban emissions are directly proportional to population. 518 ------- W ,Q EH 3 En U r-H I r-~ W jj Cfl Q Q Z f^ EH W ffl Cfl Z O M EH Z U u Z o u EH M O ft g £ EH Z 0 ft •p O g M s § —H o £ >H a 1 o u u C/1 ^ K CO fc [—CM TOO1 (N O OO a\ ^ oo I-H co in co r- in rH V «. CM ro OCN lO^VD in rH OO ro o I-H in CA ^" r- r* r^ rH CO CA 00 rT^ r-(N TCO^1 rH O OO CM CA rH ^* co ^ co inco r- in rH (N ** CM m CM I-H rj in o oo CM I" rH^rt^ m \D OO v£> rsj vc (N rn C C 3 3 p» co «. O O rH S 55 C C 3 3 (1) 4J Iti >H rl rHrH-J rH3^ rH M -Hrl 3IOO IflOD 10 3 33 OD.C 3X!O 3 O OO •rici cix; c x! x;x: 4J C •» C •* 1 o C 1 II Vj < tM M< CM n M< -am co rH tO O QUO ft M Z SB U a) T3 •H 01 x C 0 0 C XI O ri e ID o c 0 0 >H XI •O IH ^ to -q 0 II II U O X U 01 •a Q} M •a x •rl O X-H o -a •H •a c as ±4 Dl 3 O MH M rH 4-1 3 -H 01 c II II (N dt 0 0 CO Z 01 S C 0 O 4J •H 4-1 U-l 10 O 4-1 V4 C 0) OJ 4-> o c c w o o o 0) •0 X! C 4-> 3 0 E IH 0 Cn IH ^ 4H O 10 01 CO 0) rH •H • E 01 4) m O M C 3 0) O . 01 tfl 4-> C 10 01 xi -u u c 3 0) E e v 0 rJ tl 3 4H 01 to 01 o c C -rl o o u a rH i-l fl> fO > IH Q) 3 rH « 1 : •O c 3 . O ** IH 1 Cnr- T3 01 tt) rH 4J XI O 10 •H EH 'O rl 0 a IH MH 01 IH C tO 11 J^ D 10 in 4-1 0) x; a) EH IH a to a 0) x; •p 4J o 0) 4J 0 IH a 0 4J "8 c Cn •rH 01 Q) T3 01 t3 V4 tfl •o c 10 4-1 to £>, 4-1 •H r-H 10 3 V ^ -rl to 4-1 C 0) •rH X) E 10 rH 10 IH (U "8 . MH >, rH (U fl) IH > 10 -H 4J = O M CU 10 01 •O 0) o o - 01 0) 01 IH = 10 MH •O rH C V to 3 = -O VH tO to £ r •rl 4J ^1 rH ft 10 r 0) -a XI , CM 0 Z o 4-1 rQ O 4-> IH 01 > C o o 0) 10 0! 01 o M 3 0 01 C to XI 3 E 0 MH C 0) en 0 IH 4-1 •H C MH O 01 0) 13 •rl X 0 MH O 4-> C 01 o IH S, o in 4-1 10 x: 4-1 •8 E 3 01 in to 01 •rl 4J I-H U . E 10 c* I 4-1 10 •a 01 IH 3 01 to g 01 -H •a 10 T3 c to 4J 01 U )H 3 O x: i ro 01 EH •a 519 ------- facilities (when they are separated by 5 miles) will not violate applicable standards. The plants could have been sited such that short-term concentrations were highest for the case of plant interaction. Gillette's population increase to 44,500 by 1990 will cause urban pollutant concentrations to increase to the levels shown in Table 7-16. As in the 1980 case, the only federal or state ambient standard violated is that for HC. (3) To 2000 Two new facilities, a Synthane gasification plant and a Synthoil liquefaction plant, will become operational between 1990 and 2000. Maximum pollutant concentrations resulting from interactions of the Synthane and Synthoil plants with the power plant do not violate federal or Wyoming ambient standards. Gillette's population will increase to 69,200 by the year 2000, and increased pollution concentrations will be associated with growth (Table 7-16). Still, only the HC ambient standard will be exceeded by this source; no other standard will even be approached. J. Other Air Impacts Nine additional categories of potential air impacts have been examined: that is, an attempt has been made to identify sources of pollutants and how energy development may affect lev- els of these pollutants during the next 25 years, including sul- fates, oxidants, fine particulates, long-range visibility, plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, cooling tower fogging and icing, trace element emissions, and fugitive dust emissions. Although there are likely to be local impacts as a consequence of these pollutants, both the available data and knowledge about impact mechanisms are insufficient to allow quantitative, site- specific analyses. Thus, these are discussed in a more general, qualitative manner in Chapter 10. 7.2.4 Summary of Air Impacts Eight facilities (a power plant, Lurgi and Synthane gasifi- cation plants, a Synthoil liquefaction plant, coal rail transport, coal slurry pipeline, natural gas wells, a uranium mill, and both a surface and solutional uranium mine) are projected for the No analytical information is currently available on the source and formation of nitrates. See Hazardous Materials Advisory Committee. Nitrogenous Compounds in the Environment, EPA-SAB-73- 001. Washington, B.C.:Government Printing Office, 1973. 520 ------- Gillette area. To meet NSPS, the 3,000 MWe power plant would require 97.5 percent particulate removal, no S02 removal, and 22 percent NOX removal. However, at this level of control, several federal ambient air standards and Class II PSD increments would be violated. With 80 percent SC>2 and 99 percent particulate removal and either a 500 or 300 foot stack height, neither ambient air stan- dards nor Class II PSD increments will,be exceeded. When combined with its associated mine, peak concentrations from the power plant will exceed short-term Class I increments. A buffer zone of 44 miles between the plant and Class I area would be required. Typical and peak concentrations from both the Lurgi and Synthane gasification plants will not violate any federal or Wyoming ambient air standards or Class II PSD increments. Since Class I PSD increments will be violated by both plants, buffer zones of 7.4 miles (Lurgi) and 5 miles (Sythane) would be required. The 3-hour peak HC concentrations which result from the Synthoil plant will greatly exceed the federal and Wyoming am- bient air standards. No other ambient air standards or Class II PSD increments will be violated. The violations of Class I PSD increments would require a buffer zone of 13 miles between the Synthoil plant and any area designated Class I. Typical and peak concentrations from the operation of the strip mines for coal rail transport and coal slurry pipeline are not expected to violate any federal or Wyoming ambient air stan- dards or Class II PSD increments. However, some Class I PSD in- crements will be exceeded and would require buffer zones of less than 5 miles between the mines and an area designated Class I. Peak concentrations from the natural gas wells may exceed both the federal and Wyoming ambient air standards for HC by a factor of more than six. No other ambient air standards or Class II PSD increments will be violated. The Class I increment for 3-hour SO2 is exceeded and would require a buffer zone of less than 5 miles. Impacts from the uranium mill and its associated surface mine are expected to be negligible. Those from a solutional mine are uncertain. If all eight facilities are constructed according to the hypothesized schedule, population increases in Gillette will add to existing pollution problems. Current violations of HC stan- dards will continue to increase through the year 2000, but no other violations of ambient standards due to urban sources are expected in Gillette. 521 ------- 7.3 WATER IMPACTS 7.3.1 Introduction As shown in Figure 7-3, Gillette, Wyoming, is located in a water-poor area of the relatively water-rich UMRB. Surface water sources that could supply the needs of energy development at Gillette are all a considerable distance away; these include the Yellowstone River, its tributaries, and the Belle Fourche1, Green, and North Platte Rivers. In this area, annual rainfall is about 14 inches, and annual snowfall is about 48 inches, the equivalent of an additional 3.2 inches of rainfall.1 This section identifies the sources and uses of water re- quired for energy development, the residuals that will be pro- duced, and water availability and quality impacts that are likely to result. 7.3.2 Existing Conditions A. Groundwater The most productive aquifer systems in the Gillette area are the deeply buried Madison Limestone aquifer (mostly over 5,000 feet deep), shallow aquifer systems in the Fort Union and Wasatch Formations (mostly less than 300 feet deep), and alluvial aquifer systems associated with the surface drainage. Although no esti- mate is available on the quantity of water stored in these aqui- fers (information is especially inadequate for the Madison), the total volume of groundwater available in the northeast Wyoming region without exceeding recharge rates is estimated at 15,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr).2 The quality of water in the Madison aquifer, as measured by TDS concentrations, ranges from less than 500 milligrams per liter (mg/£) near recharge areas in the Powder River Basin to more than 4,000 mg/£ near the Montana-North Dakota line.3 :The moisture content of 1 inch of rain is equal to approx- imately 15 inches of snow. 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, et al. Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed De- velopment of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal Basin of Wyoming, 6 vols. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Bureau of Land Management, 1974. 3Swenson, Frank A. Possible Development of Water from Madison Group and Associated Rock in Powder River Basin, Montana-Wyoming. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974, p. 3, 522 ------- Montana Utah Colorado SUBBASINS 1. Western Dakota Tributaries 6. 2. Platte-Niobrara Rivers 7. 3. Powder River 4. Bighorn River 8. 5. Green River 9. Yellowstone Upper Missouri River Tributaries Snake River Bear River FIGURE 7-3: SURFACE WATER SOURCES IN THE VICINITY OF GILLETTE 523 ------- Water from the Madison has municipal, industrial, domestic, and livestock uses in the Wyoming region. Because the Madison is a limestone aquifer with irregular caverns storing the water, the productivity of a particular well depends on the number or size of caverns encountered by the well borehole. Wells producing several hundred gpm are common. Several alluvial aquifers are present along the streams in the scenario area. The aquifer along Donkey Creek, about 5 miles east of Gillette, is the most productive, having wells that yield from only a few to as much as several hundred gpm1 at a depth of from 3 to 20 feet.2 Water quality of these alluvial aquifers is generally only fair,3 and the water is presently used only for livestock and domestic purposes. The most important aquifers in the Gillette area are in the shallow bedrock Fort Union and Wasatch Formations. These aquifers are in coal beds and lens-like sandstone bodies interbedded with shales. Wells yield up to 100 gpm in the Fort Union Formation and up to 500 gpm in the Wasatch Formation." Water taken from these formations is used for livestock and domestic purposes as well for 95 percent of Gillette's municipal water supply.5 Water quality is variable, with a generally lower concentration of TDS than the alluvial aquifers.6 Wyoming, State Engineer's Office. A Report from the Wyoming Water Planning Program. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Wyoming, State Engineer's Office, 1972, p. 61. 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, et al. Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed De- velopment of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal Basin of Wyoming,6 vols.Cheyenne,Wyo.:Bureau of Land Management, 1974, p. 1-95. 3TDS range from about 500 to more than 2,000 mg/£, but most water ranges from 1,000 to 1,500 mg/Jl. Ibid. , p. 1-199. ^Wyoming, State Engineer's Office. Water Planning Program. 5Northern Great Plains Resources Program, Water Work Group, Ground Water Subgroup. Shallow Ground Water in Selected Areas in the Fort Union Coal Region, Open File Report 74-48.Helena, Mont.: U.S.,Department of the Interior, Geological Survey, 1974, p. 35. 6The TDS content ranges from 300 to more than 2,000 mg/£, but the range of most bedrock aquifer water in the Powder River Basin is limited to 500-1,500 mg/£ dissolved solids. BLM. FEIS: Eastern Powder River Coal Basin, p. 1-130. 524 ------- B. Surface Water As shown in Figure 7-3, Gillette, Wyoming is located approxi- mately on the divides of several major watersheds: The Belle Fourche, Little Powder, Cheyenne, and Powder River Basins. There- fore, as. energy development takes place around Gillette, the water needs could be met from several of these sources. The water supply situation is complicated by the Yellowstone and the Belle Fourche Compacts.1 The Yellowstone Compact was negotiated between Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota to control water allocations in the Yellowstone River Basin. The compact recognizes all water rights existing in the basin as of January 1, 1950, and provides for the division of all remaining (unallocated) flow. Flow in the tributaries to the Yellowstone is divided as shown in Table 7-17. However, an important provision within the compact states that no water will be diverted out of the basin without the con- sent of the signatory states. As Gillette is outside the Yellow- stone Basin, this provision will directly affect the availability of water to energy development. Water appropriations in the Belle Fourche River are governed by a compact between Wyoming and South Dakota. This compact states that all water unappropriated as of February 1944 is al- located 10 percent to Wyoming and 90 percent to South Dakota. There are several intermittent streams in the scenario area. Al- though there are no data on these streams, it is doubtful that they have enough flow to supply water for energy development. For example, Gillette is located on Donkey Creek, an ephemeral tributary of the Bell Fourche River, but the drainage area of the creek above Gillette is only 0.28 square mile. The availability of water to meet energy development demands is shown in Table 7-18. Surface water would be available from several distant sources, including the Yellowstone River and its tributaries, the Belle Fourche, Cheyenne, Little Missouri, Green, and North Platte Rivers, and Lake Oahe (on the Upper Missouri in South Dakota). 7.3.3 Factors Producing Impacts The water requirements of and effluents from energy facil- ities cause water impacts. These requirements and effluents are identified in this section for each type of energy facility. Associated population increases also increase municipal water demand and sewage effluent; these are presented in Section 7.3.4 Yellowstone River Compact of 1950, Pub. L. 82-231, 65 Stat. 663 (1951); and Belle Fourche River Compact of 1943, Pub. L. 78- 236, 58 Stat. 94 (1944). 525 ------- TABLE 7-17: LEGAL DIVISION OF FLOW: YELLOWSTONE RIVER TRIBUTARIES TRIBUTARY Clarks Fork Bighorn Tongue Powder WYOMING (percent) 60 80 40 42 MONTANA (percent) 40 20 60 58 for the scenario which includes all facilities constructed ac- cording to the scenario schedule. A. Water Requirements of Energy Facilities The water requirements of energy facilities included in the Gillette scenario are shown in Table 7-19. Two sets of data are presented. The Energy Resource Development System (ERDS) Report data are based on secondary sources, including impact statements, Federal Power Commission docket filings, and recent published data accumulations,1 and can be considered typical requirement levels. The Water Purification Associates data are from a study on minimum water-use requirements and take into account certain opportunities to recycle water on site as well as the moisture content of the coal being used and local meteorological data.2 As indicated in Table 7-19, the power plant requires more water than the other facilities if wet cooling is used (the high wet case in Table 7-19 or 25,842 acre-ft/yr). By using a com- bination of wet and dry cooling (i.e., intermediate wet cooling), water requirements can be reduced by 75 percent to 6,465 JThe ERDS Report is based on data drawn from: University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program. Energy Alternatives; A Comparative Analysis. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975; and Radian Corporation. A Western Regional Energy Development Study, Final Report, 4 vols. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1975. These data are published in White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Washington, D.C.: Report, forthcoming. U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 2Gold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United sTates. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. 526 ------- oo <-( I r>- W g fcj h E < w CO z o H H Pu U S TIM ATE D D Id JD in o [d 2 SHW Q \|J CO U z S w o s « 0 k* £• a J Z Ed K Sj ej CO Ed Ed EH S < EH 3 « O Z J EH O EH M M O EH g£ td O co a u STRIAL D a z k MUNICIPAL DOMESTIC, & STOCK z 0 s 0 y K H gg M U > EH U S W S 5 K S b- Z jj M 2 to u 0 O 1 000 O O 1 000 o o o o o v£> t-H (^- in o ^H 00 i-H o o o o o o o o o o «T o^ in" ^ in 00 rH CO O\ CO n ^f o o o o o o o o o o h. «. b «. h ro vp ^" o o oo cr> rg (N O O 0 0 O o o o o o t-H \£> i-\ GO i-t m r- rj vo ^ CM -H ^ 00 1 O 0 0 O 1 00 or- o r- i-l i— I rH 0 O 0 O 0 O 0 0 00 Q) > > S U « -H -H -H -H lH ffi a a £ 3 QJ U O H C C 0)H 0) Q) En Q> C V-J 3C)fH>H> Q)I-H C 41 flj T) 01 0 O'O. IB C C a n S v jj •a w c n a ta M c. O -P 3 C a -H m u M - 3 14 O o to US 01 U S. o c c as Q) O o >, en o 10 O r- tr, 01 i-l 0) 01 01 U C -H •H ^ emu c o u tn 0) - -P M (0 U) 4J 0) w c DI C c u JJ O 4J 01 01 E 0) rH O 4J >1 « O S 4J Z .o in u 527 ------- TABLE 7-19: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR ENERGY FACILITIES AT GILLETTE (acre-feet per year) TECHNOLOGY3 Power Generation Gasfication Lurgi Syn thane Liquefaction Synthoil6 Coal Slurry Gas Wells Uranium Solutional Uranium Mine Surface Mine-Mill Synthetic Fuels Facilities Power Plant ERDS^ WET COOLING 29,400 6,714 9,090 17,460 13,390 380 200 1,350 WPAC COMBINATION OF WET AND DRY COOLING HIGH WET 25,842 5,823 7,776 9,227 NC NC NC NC INTERMEDIATE WET 6,465 4,206 5,875 7,539 NC NC NC NC MININUM WET NC 3,721 5,484 7,026 NC NC NC NC Cost Range in Which Indicated Cooling Technology Is Most Economic (dollars per thousand gallons) NC NC < 1.50 <3. 65-5. 90 2.00 >3. 65-5. 90 >2.00 NC ERDS = Energy Resource Development System WPA = Water Purification Associates NC = not considered less than greater than These values assume an annual load factor of 75 percent in the case of the 3,000 megawatt- electric power plant and 90 percent in the case of a 250 million cubic feet per day Lurgi and Synthane facilities and 100,000 barrel per day Synthoil facility. White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. GGold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic. Fuel Plants in the Western United States.Washington,D.C.:U.S.,Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. Combinations of wet and wet/dry cooling were obtained by examining the economics of cooling alternatives for the turbine condensers and gas compressor interstage coolers. In the high wet case, these are all wet cooled; in the intermediate case, wet cooling handles 10 percent of the load on the turbine condensers and all of the load in the interstage coolers; in the minimum practical wet case, wet cooling handles 10 percent of the cooling load on the turbine condens- ers and 50 percent of the load in the interstage coolers. For power plants, only variations on the steam turbine condenser load were considered practical; thus, only high wet and inter- mediate wet cases are examined. eSynthoil data have a high uncertainty because of the small capacity of bench scale test facil- ities built to date. The Solvent Refined Coal liquefaction process now appears likely to be- come commercial sooner, and more reliable pilot plant data are available. These data are re- ported in White et al. Energy From the West: ERDS Report, Chapter 3. 528 ------- acre-ft/yr. For synthetic fuels facilities the intermediate wet cooling system could save between 19 (Synthoil) and 28 percent (Lurgi) of the water required for a high wet (i.e., all wet) sys- tem. From an economic standpoint, the decision as to which pro- cess to use will depend on the availability and price of water. In the case of the power plant, high wet cooling is economically attractive if water costs less than $3.65 to $5.90 per thousand gallons. If water costs more than $3.65 to $5.90 per thousand gallons, intermediate wet cooling would be the most attractive alternative. For synthetic fuels facilities, high wet cooling would be most attractive if water costs less than $1.50 per thou- sand gallons. If water costs increase to about $1.50 per thou- sand gallons, intermediate wet cooling would be the economical choice. Minimum wet cooling (i.e., maximum dry cooling) would save from 6 (Synthoil) to 8 percent (Lurgi) more water than in- termediate wet cooling and would become economically attractive if water costs more than $2.00 per thousand gallons. If water costs only $0.25 per thousand gallons but interme- diate wet cooling is utilized in order to conserve water, the in- creased cost of synthetic fuels would be about one cent per million Btu of fuel produced more than if high wet cooling were used. If water costs $0.25 per thousand gallons and intermediate wet cooling rather than high wet cooling is chosen for the power plant, the economic penalty is 0.1 to 0.2 cents per kilowatt hour. About 200 acre-feet of water per year will be used to leach the yellowcake at the solutional uranium facility. The water will be pumped into the uranium ore deposits as a leaching solu- tion through insertion wells. The leaching solution and dis- solved uranium is then pumped to a processing mill via production wells. More than half of the total water requirement is for postleaching aquifer restoration. Techniques for restoration of the aquifer include: total water removal; water removal, clean- up, and recycle; and solutional restoration. In the case of water removal, clean-up, and recycle, contaminated water is pumped from the aquifer, treated above ground, and then reinjected into the aquifer where it originated. The scenario reported here assumes this option for aquifer restoration. Most of the water needed for the solutional uranium mine will be generated as a part of the solutional leaching and aquifer restoration operations. Ad- ditional wells may be drilled on-site.1 Figure 7-4 indicates the manner in which water is consumed by the hypothesized energy facilities. As indicated, more water is used for cooling than for processing and solids disposal com- bined. Solids disposal consumes comparable quantities of water White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming, Chapter 5. 529 ------- ERDS (8 ------- TABLE 7-20: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR RECLAMATION' MINE Power Plant Lurgi Synthane Sythoil Rail Transport Slurry Pipeline Total ACRES DISTURBED/YEAR 110 85 85 110 220 220 830 MAXIMUM ACRES UNDER IRRIGATION 550 425 425 550 1,110 1,110 4,170 WATER REQUIREMENTS (acre-ft/yr) 415 320 415 415 825 825 3,215 acre-ft/yr = acre-feet per year aBased on an irrigation rate of 9 inches per year for 5 years, which is the difference between water demand of native grasses and average precipitation. See U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Resource and Reclamation Evaluation; Otter Creek Study Site, EMRIA Report No. 1. Billings, Mont.: Bureau of Land Management, 1975. for all technologies, varying primarily as a function of the ash content of the feedstock coal. In addition to the energy facility water requirements, the associated mines that provide feedstock coal will also require water. If reclamation of surface mined lands includes irrigation, most of the water requirements for mining will be for reclamation (see Table 7-20). Assuming the legal restraints of the various compacts can be favorably resolved, several pipeline or aqueduct schemes for supplying Gillette with water have been evaluated by industry and government agencies. Figure 7-5 shows some of these schemes. Table 7-21 presents representative flow data at possible diver- sion points from these rivers and some water quality parameters of interest. The cost of transporting water to the energy development will depend on several factors, including the route selected and the volume of flow. Cost figures for some of those diversions are shown in Table 7-22. 531 ------- MONTANA FIGURE 7-5: WATER PIPELINES FOR ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE GILLETTE SCENARIO 532 ------- OH W CN I S -~ iVERAGE FLO !acre-f t/yr «, — S s o""" •• E? ° ri] x- S S S"in M ^ H g 6M-E 5] to DRAINAGE AREA quare mile ra 2 O M EH <£ U O h-^ ex a S O O O O o r- rH o o c^ in oo c^ in to to CN CN rH rH OS O O O O O o o IN o ro in o m ro ro " " ^ 1-rT rH rH rS rsi r~ o to o in o r~ r- ro rH rH rH in TO eg o in rH o ro o to o o o r^ ro rH to co Crt IN rH O rH rH -i (0 Cn OS -PC >i HJ C -H S C O E X iO S O O 4J >i IH O C S 01 r-i O >, > C S -P •HO) -HO* K rH » U CO O •H rH -p K fu C in H S T) C JZ O 0 O CD 4-> X! rH O (1) r4 Cn rH 3 >-i O -H CD O O 2 03 X 2 TOTAL STORAGE (acre-feet) — W O D U CD O K 1 r-P O O tu EH M W U ,, W CD £ 0 0) r W I U g JJ ^ to u rtJ ' Q H NACTIVE AN EAD STORAG (acre-feet) H Q 2 " C/j ^ CQ H •^ 5 MH , K M O a; w C/j § o o o o •T O CN in in r^ rH O O 0 0 -» 0 o en in in rH CN 0 0 0 O «. «. ^r r-4 in \£> 0 0 o o i— i m CN (N m o CN m C C r-1 X^ O O .C ,rt en en •H -H ffi CO C r-l CD O ra .c >i Cn O -H oa CQ „ r~\ TOTAL HARDNESS g/i as CaC( e /-i U-i c/3° Q 6-1 -§ DISSOLVED OXYGEN (mg/!>) 2 0 M EH U O « W M OH U 0 o o r o to i1 o o CN in CN to 1 III O O tjD O to o co co rH rH rH a r- ro in ro 00 CTl CO 00 1 III •«r in en o • • • • •C (N O -Q O to O CN O rH «• Cn tO - - CN 00 r- rH rH tD 00 1 1 1 1 1 rH rH O O I- oo co r- in o rH rH rO rH in CN CN 1 in en C Cn -H e E IB -HO C E >i ro en OS -PC >i IB C -H 5 » C O E . ffl £ 0 O -P >, •4 O C * 3 CD 14 O >i > C S -P -H CD -H Qi OH rH » U CD U C CD C -H W rH Q) H t> 0> 10 0) (0 l-l rH c t-l CD CO -H CD 0 2 S3 S EH CD -4 -P QJ CD -P C > (0 0 •H rH Jj ctf & c Si rH O 0) M tn rH S r-l O -H 0) O U 2 03 >H 2 CO CD >1 •O C r-l O O o a CD [/! 4-> CD t-l CD CD i O -P 3 X. >H O O 4-1 CX -P ItH O u co 10 II tu u c CS 4J o 3 •O c o o o (U a 10 o 4J ro MH •O CD TJ •P CD 3 4-i £l ID •H rH -4 3 •P O C rH O IB U U TO -O 533 ------- TABLE 7-22: ALTERNATIVE WATER SUPPLY COSTS FOR GILLETTE3 SERVICE AREA Gillette, Wyoming vicinity and south WATER SOURCES Bighorn River Bighorn River Yellowstone River Missouri River Green River DIVERSON POINT Bighorn Lake Hardin, Montana Miles City, Montana Oahe Reservoir, South Dakota Rock Springs, Wyoming COST PER ACRE-FOOT (dollars) 270 250 220 294 235 Source: Gibbs, Phil Q. "Availability of Water for Coal Conversion," Preprint No. 2561. Paper presented at the American Society of Civil Engineers National Convention, Denver, Colorado, November 1975. 3 Assumptions - 8 percent interest 8 mills/kilowatt hour for pumping 40 year repayment of capital costs Flow 300,000-600,000 acre-feet per year The cost required to bring large quantities of water into Gillette may be such that only a federal organization, such as the Bureau of Reclamation, would be able to finance the construc- tion. However, a consortium of private companies might fund a water system for all the developments and thus be able to take advantage of economies of scale. In effect, this could mean that the timing of facility completions and subsequent start-ups would be at more defined intervals. Several facilities might come on line at the same time to match the completion 6f an increment of the water supply system. Although the costs shown in Table 7-22 are for a 300,000-600,000 acre-ft/yr delivery rate, this volume may not be provided in one step. Alternatively, individual in- dustries may provide their own water supply systems. The cost of individual systems would be higher but might still be within the economic limits of project feasibility. 534 ------- In the immediate vicinity of Gillette, the Madison aquifer is too deep (10,000-14,000 feet)1 for economical use, but about 50 miles to the east the aquifer is only about 1,500 feet from the surface and thus could be economically tapped and pumped by pipeline to the Gillette area. Such a system could be used to supply some of the water needs for energy development. The water supply system postulated for this scenario assumes that, rather than a single water-supply pipeline, the industries will use various surface and groundwater sources, and water will be pumped to the industrial site. The Lurgi and Synthane gasifi- cation plants and the power plant will draw water from the Yellow- stone River at Miles City. The Synthoil liquefaction plant and coal slurry facility will take water from the North Platte River near Douglas. Water for the rail transport facility will be taken from local, shallow aquifers in the Fort Union Formation. This water will be obtained from mine dewatering operations. Water for the uranium mill and the natural gas plant will be with- drawn from the Madison limestone aquifer in the vicinity of Sundance. B. Effluents from Energy Facilities (1) Coal conversion facilities The expected amounts of solid effluents produced by coal con- version facilities in the Gillette scenario are shown in Table 7-23. The greatest amount of solid effluents will be produced by the Synthoil plant (more than 2,500 tpd). The 3,000 MWe power plant will produce more than 2,300 tpd of solid effluents, and Synthane and Lurgi plants are each expected to produce more than 1,350 tons of solid effluents per day. The power plant will produce the largest total quantity of dissolved and dry solids (50 and 1,303 tpd), and the Synthoil plant will produce the most wet solids (1,250 tpd). Dissolved solids are present in the ash blowdown effluent, the demineralizer waste effluent, and the flue gas desulfurization ^wenson, Frank A. Possible Development of Water from Madison Group and Associated Rock in Powder River Basin, Montana- Wyoming . Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974. 535 ------- TABLE 7-23: EFFLUENTS FROM ENERGY CONVERSION FACILITIES AT GILLETTE3 FACILITY TYPE Coalc Lurgi (250 MMcfd) Syn thane (250 MMcfd) Synthoil (100,000 bbl/day) Electric Power (3,000 MW) Uraniumd Surface Mine (1,100 mtpd) Mill (1,000 mtpy) Solutional Mine-Mill (250 tpy) Natural Gas (250 MMcfd) SOLIDS3 (tons per day) DISSOLVED 25 25 20 50 0.8-3.8 g 7.0 0 WET 1,186 321 1,250 958 0.3 6g 2.2 0 DRY 154 1,014 1,249 1,303 Oe 1,000 0.7-1.4h 0 TOTAL 1,365 1,360 2,519 2,311 1.2-5.1£ 1,006 9.8-10.5 0 WATER IN EFFLUENTb (acre-feet per year) 681 924 864 1,827 500-1,600 500 125 0 MMcfd = million cubic feet per day bbl/day = barrels per day MW = megawatt mtpd = metric tons per day mtpy =' metric tons per year tpy = tons per year aThese values are given for a day when the facility is operating at full load. In order to ob- tain yearly values, these numbers must be multiplied by 365 days and by the average load factor. Load factors are 90 percent for synthetic fuels facilities and 70 percent for power plants. The values given as solids do not include the weight of the water in which the solids are suspended or dissolved. bThe values for water discharged are annual and take into account the load factor. cThese data are from Radian Corporation. The Assessment of Residuals Disposal for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation,1978.The Radian Corporation report extends and is based on earlier analyses con- ducted by Water Purification Associates and reported in Gold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Washington,D.C.:U.S:,Environmental Protection Agency,1977. Calculated from data reported in the Corps of Engineers Discharge Permit Applications. eOverburden could be considered a dry solid effluent. Since it is placed back in the mine, it is not included here. £Total is not the sum of dissolved and wet because it includes volatile solids. ^Dissolved and wet solids are included in wet column. hTailings calculated as 1-2 pounds of dry waste per pound of yellowcake where 250 tons of yellow- cake per year is 1,370 pounds per day. 536 ------- effluent.l The principal constitutents of wastewater (which ap- pear as dissolved solids) are calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate, and chlorine. Wet solids from electric power and Lurgi or Synthane gasifi- cation facilities are in the form of flue gas sludge, bottom ash, and cooling tower treatment waste sludge. Bottom ash is the pri- mary constituent of wet solids produced by a Synthoil facility. Calcium carbonate (CaC03) and calcium sulfate (CaSOiJ are the primary constituents of flue gas sludge. Bottom ash is primarily oxides of aluminum and silicon. CaCO3 is the principal constit- uent of the cooling water treatment waste sludge. In all cases, the amount of cooling water treatment waste is very small, com- pared to the amount of bottom ash and flue gas sludge. Dry solids produced by coal conversion processes are pri- marily fly ash composed of oxides of aluminum, silicon, and iron. Dissolved and wet solids are transported to evaporative holding ponds and later deposited in a landfill. Dry solids are treated with water to prevent dusting and deposited in a landfill.2 The water in the effluent stream accounts for between 5 (Synthoil) and 10 percent (Lurgi and Synthane) of the total water requirements of the individual coal conversion facilities (water effluent given in Table 7-23 compared to water requirements in Table 7-19). (2) Uranium Facilities Only the uranium mill produces a significant quantity of solids in the form of mill tailings (Table 7-23) , but these are still less than solids from coal plants. Water effluent from the surface mine will be ponded. Mill tailings will be disposed of in a landfill. Ponded water has a radium-226 (Ra-226) content of about 100 pCi/£, whereas groundwater is generally about 3.3 JNote that all coal conversion processes generate electic- ity on-site, thus flue gas cleaning, ash handling, and deminerali- zation are required for all. One exception is the Synthoil pro- ess which uses clean fuel gas for power generation; flue gas cleaning is not required for it. Demineralization is a method of preparing water for use in boilers; it produces an effluent composed of chemicals present in the source water. The ash blow- down stream is the water used to remove bottom ash from the boiler. Bottom ash removal is done via a wet sluicing system using cooling tower blowdown water. Thus, the dissolved solids content of the stream is composed of chemicals from the ash and cooling water. 2The environment problems associated with solid waste dis- posal in holding ponds and landfills are discussed in Chapter 10. 537 ------- pCi/&. In order to prevent groundwater contaminants, the radium is treated in the pond, precipitated, and later transferred to a landfill along with the mill tailings. Effluents from the solutional uranium leaching operation are similar to those from the mill, except that mill tailings are re- duced significantly (Table 7-23). A solutional facility produces 1 to 2 pounds of tailings per pound of yellowcake, whereas a nor- mal milling operation produces 300 pounds of tailings per pound of yellowcake. 7.3.4 Impacts This section describes water impacts which result from the coal surface mines, gas wells, conversion facilities, coal rail transport, coal slurry pipeline, and uranium facilities and from the combination of facilities in the Gillette scenario. The water requirements and impacts associated with expected popula- tion increases are included in the scenario impact description. A. Coal, Uranium, and Gas Extraction Impacts The surface coal mines may have several disturbing effects on the local Fort Union Formation aquifers. The coal mines will probably intersect either perched or water-table aquifers and disrupt aquifer flow patterns. If the mine is below the water table (the coal seams are aquifers in parts of the Fort Union Formation), mine dewatering will be necessary, and depletion of the aquifers will result. Discharges from mine dewatering proba- bly will not exceed 500 gpm. Local springs and seeps on hill- sides may dry up, and water levels in local wells may be lowered. Additionally, the base flow of streams in the area may be reduced, To comply with the zero-discharge provisions of current legisla- tion, water from dewatering will be used for dust control and washing or will be reinjected in Fort Union aquifers far enough down-gradient to prevent recycling of water to the mine. Thus, the only loss to the aquifers will be local. After the coal slurry pipeline begins operation in 1985, reinjection can be dis- continued, and the water from dewatering can be piped to the slurry preparation plant for use as process water. Depending on the composition of the overburden, weathering and oxidation of the spoil material may result in the release of contaminants. Both natural precipitation and water added for re- vegetation may pick up the contaminants and transport them into local aquifers. Aquifers in the immediate mine area will be af- fected the most. Aquifers in coal beds that are mined will be destroyed, and aquifers in the overburden will experience large changes in such properties as porosity and permeability. No al- luvial aquifers are close enough to the mine to be affected by mining operations. 538 ------- Surface water drainage patterns will be affected by mine ex- cavations, some of which will trap runoff. Unless these mines are pumped out regularly, some of the impounded water may eventually percolate into the groundwater system but should not produce any significant impacts. Losses in runoff due to mine excavation are not expected to be significant locally because area streams are ephemeral and runoff flow would quickly dry up in any case. As the mines continue to operate, reclamation efforts will increase and larger water requirements must be satisfied. This could be accomplished by the use of water from mine dewatering and from wastewater treatment plant effluent at Gillette (see Table 7-22). Solutional uranium leaching operations will produce impacts on both surface and groundwater systems. Construction activities will remove vegetation and disturb soils over a small area. Drilling activities will cause intermittent disturbances of sur- face water. The potential exists for excessive sediment delivery during storms to Willow Creek and the Powder River. However, due to the present sparse vegetation and current high rate of sediment delivery during storms, significant impacts from the facility's construction are not anticipated. Wastes from the solutional uranium mining facility will be stored in plastic-lined, temporary retention ponds on the site. The liquid will be allowed to evaporate, and no effluent will be discharged to surface waters. Another disposal alternative would be to use the liquid wastes for irrigation. The possibility of mineralogical and radiological pollution of the Powder River makes this an unlikely alternative. Impacts on the groundwater system can occur from the subsur- face solutional leaching process or from the leaching of residuals generated from the processing of the ore at a disposal site. The most significant potential impacts relate to reductions in the water quality of the Wasatch aquifer. The gas wells will have little or no impact on local surface water or groundwater systems, provided that proper well drilling and completion practices are used. B. Energy Conversion Facilities and Coal Export Impacts Annual average water requirements (assuming expected load factors and high wet cooling, see Table 7-19) range from a low for Lurgi gasification of 5,823 acre-ft/yr to a high for a power plant of 25,842 acre-ft/yr. Any one facility, then, would with- draw a small percentage of the Yellowstone River's average annual flow of 8,200,000 acre-ft/yr. On the other hand, worst case con- ditions, when a facility is operating at the expected load factor on a day when its water source was at low flow, could be signif- icant. Low flow on the Yellowstone is 5,135 cubic feet per 539 ------- second (cfs) and on the North Platte is 176 cfs (Table 7-21).l Withdrawals by any one energy facility operating at the expected load factor range from 0.1 to 0.7 percent of the Yellowstone's low flow and from 4.8 to 21.3 percent of the North Platte1s low flow (Lurgi and a power plant respectively). Since each of the facilities will have on-site reservoirs, withdrawals could be reduced during low-flow periods when the plants would draw from the reservoirs. The situation in the North Platte could be further amelio- rated if water were released into it from upstream reservoirs (such as the Pathfinder Reservoir or Seminole Reservoir). Alter- natively, water could be conveyed from the Green River to the North Platte to augment flows or to supply water to the facilities (see Figure 7-6). The impact of these withdrawals on the North Platte River during low-flow periods could be significant both in terms of flow depletion and from salt-concentrating effects. Al- ternate surface sources (such as a pipeline from Lake Oahe on the Upper Missouri River in South Dakota) or the use of groundwater to meet part of the needs may be necessary. Since the Gillette coal slurry and Synthoil facilities are outside the Yellowstone River Basin, Wyoming cannot transfer Yellowstone River water to the facilities without the consent of Montana and North Dakota. In any case, Wyoming can only use water that has been allocated to it by the Yellowstone Compact. Agreements will have to be made for Wyoming to remove water from the Yellowstone River in Montana. The uranium mine and facilities will use local groundwater, i.e., the Madison aquifer in the vicinity of Sundance, and are therefore not expected to have a significant impact on surface water. The mill's withdrawal of 1,350 acre-ft/yr of water (Table 7-19) may contribute to the depletion of the Madison aquifer. About 1,000 tpd of solid wastes in the form of processing tail- ings will be produced by the uranium mill (Table 7-23). These tailings will be disposed of in tailings ponds that will also be used for the disposal of liquid and solid chemical and radiolog- ical wastes.2 These wastes may pose a particularly large hazard to local aquifers should the tailings ponds leak. The degree of the hazard depends on the chemistry and radiology of the tailings and other wastes deposited in the ponds. The effectiveness of any pond liners provided will also strongly influence the degree of hazard. No significant impact on surface water is' expected from other plant effluents because discharge technology that meets the goals of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972 For comparison with withdrawals given in Table 7-19, 5,135 cfs converts to 3,720,000 acre-ft/yr and 176 cfs converts to 127,512 acre-ft/yr; in general, 724.5 acre-ft/yr equals 1.0 cfs. 540 ------- will be used. Pollution prevention systems include the discharge of all effluents into clay-lined, on-site evaporative holding ponds to prevent contamination of local surface water or ground- water systems, although pond liners may leak pollutants to local aquifers.1 Runoff retention facilities will also be used. C. Scenario Impacts Water impacts resulting from interactions among the hypoth- esized facilities and their associated mines and water impacts resulting from associated population increases are discussed in this section. Water requirements for direct use by these hypothesized energy facilities (assuming high wet cooling) will be at least 56,400 acre-ft/yr in 1990 when the power plant, Lurgi plant, coal slurry pipeline, uranium mine and mill, solutional uranium mine- mill, and natural gas production are operating, and 82,900 acre- ft/yr in 2000 when all hypothesized scenario facilities are operating. Additional water (about 5 percent of the water re- quirement for the facilities in 2000) may be required for mine reclamation purposes. Most of the municipal water supply will probably be taken from groundwater supplies. Although the water supply for Gillette is presently derived from a local well field, water probably will be pumped in the future from the Madison aquifer in the vicinity of Sundance. Additional water for Casper will be obtained by increased development of existing sources. Water requirements for increased population growth are shown in Table 7-24. Wastewater from the energy facilities which will be impounded in evaporation ponds will average 4,100 acre-ft/yr by 1990 and 5,900 acre-ft/yr by 2000.2 Rural populations are assumed to use individual, on-site waste disposal facilities (septic tanks and drainfields), and the urban population will require waste treatment facilities. The current status of wastewater treatment facilities in the municipalities most affected by energy development activities is indicated in Table 7-25. Increases in wastewater resulting from energy development-induced population increases are portioned as shown in Table 7-26. New wastewater treatment facilities adequate to meet the demands generated by these hypothetical developments and the :See Chapter 10 for a discussion of the environmental prob- lems associated with evaporative holding ponds. 2Values from Table 7-23. 541 ------- TABLE 7-24: EXPECTED WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR INCREASED POPULATION (acre-feet per year)a YEAR 1980 1990 2000 RURALb CAMPBELL COUNTY 85 170 286 GILLETTE0 3,400 8,198 14,873 CASPERd 490 1,510 2,370 TOTAL 3,975 9', 878 17,529 aAbove 1975 level, bBased on 80 gallons per capita per day. cBased on 240 gallons per capita per day. BBased on 200 gallons per capita per day. U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 1970, Circular 676. Washington, D.C.: ment Printing Office, 1972. Govern- associated population increases should be planned for Gillette by 1980. These facilities must use the "best practicable" waste treatment technology to conform to 1983 standards and must allow for recycling or zero discharge of pollutants (ZDP) to meet 1985 goals.1 The 1985 goal could be met by using effluents from the waste treatment facility for industrial process make-up water or for irrigating local farmland. The energy development postulated in this scenario should not require any increase in wastewater treatment capacity for Casper. (1) To 1980 The gas wells and the coal mine for rail transport will be constructed and in operation by 1980. The mine which will dis- turb about 200 acres per year will trap-runoff and thus affect the local ephemeral stream drainage pattern. Prior to 1980, revegetation will not have been initiated, and water will be re- quired only for dust suppression. Trapped runoff in conjunction with water from dewatering operations will be used for dust sup- pression. By 1980, natural gas production will require 380 acre- ft/yr of water (Table 7-19); this quantity is assumed to be with- drawn from the Madison aquifer. federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, §§ 101, 301, 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976). 542 ------- TABLE 7-25: WASTEWATER TREATMENT CHARACTERISTICS OF COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY ENERGY DEVELOPMENT AT GILLETTE3 GILLETTE CASPER Type of Treatment Design Load Current Load Future Plans Extended Aeration 1.2 MMgpd (1.6 with modification) 1.3 MMgpd Powder River Areawide Planning Organization in Sheridan doing 208b planning; Step 1 of 201 is being donec Adding secondary treatment to existing facility 10 MMgpd 7 MMgpd None at present MMgpd = million gallons per day aWater Quality Division of Department of Environmental Quality. ^Refers to Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, Pub. L. 92-500, § 208, 33 U.S.C.A. § 1288 (Supp. 1976), which encourages areawide waste treatment management. clbid., § 201, 33 U.S.C.A. § 1281 (Supp. 1976), which provides grants for construction of treatment works. TABLE 7-26: EXPECTED WASTEWATER FLOWS FROM INCREASED POPULATION INCREASED FLOW ABOVE 1975 LEVEL (million gallons per day) YEAR 1980 1990 2000 GILLETTE3 1.01 2.44 4.42 CASPERb 0.20 0.61 0.95 a80 gallons per capita per day . °90 gallons per capita per day. 543 ------- The increase in population associated with the Gillette sce- nario will require an additional 4,000 acre-ft/yr of water by 1980 (see Table 7-24) . l This additional water will be taken either from local aquifers in the Fort Union Formation or from the Madison aquifer in the vicinity of Sundance. A well or well field capable of producing about 870 gpm will be required. This well represents a significant withdrawal, especially from the lo- cal Fort Union aquifers. Some of the population increase will take place in rural areas, rather than in Gillette. The increased withdrawal of groundwater at individual homesites is not expected to be significant. Contamination of local bedrock aquifers from septic tank sys- tems associated with rural homesites may pose a significant water quality problem where the housing and septic tank densities become great enough to exceed the natural renovation capacity of the sub- strata. The Gillette area has an expansive clay soil that is not especially desirable for septic tank drainage fields and may be- come clogged or overloaded. The increased capacity requirement for wastewater treatment will be about one million gallons per day (MMgpd). This will necessitate construction of a new treatment facility at Gillette or expansion of the existing facility. Unless new facilities come on-line to meet these requirements, some surface water pol- lution may result from overloads and/or bypasses. (2) To 1990 The coal mines and energy conversion and transportation facilities for the slurry pipeline, the 3,000 MWe power plant, the Lurgi high-Btu gasification plant, the uranium mine and pro- cessing mill, and the solutional uranium facility will be in operation by 1985. By 1990, the coal mines for the facilities in operation will have disturbed a total of 4,275 acres (calculated from Table 7-20). Total annual water consumption will be 56,400 acre-ft/yr of which 36,100 will be withdrawn from the Yellowstone.River (for the power plant and Lurgi facility), 18,390 will be withdrawn from the North Platte River (for the slurry pipeline), and 1,900 from the Madison aquifer (for uranium processing and solutional uranium mine and natural gas production).2 Total withdrawal from the Yellowstone Population increases induced by secondary industries are not included in this estimate. 2A11 numbers assume expected average load factors and wet coolers. Power plant and Lurgi data are Water Purification Asso- ciates high wet cooling; others, Energy Research and Development Systems wet cooling. 544 ------- River represents 0.8 percent of its low flow, and total withdrawal from the North Platte River represents 14.4 percent of its low flow. During the 1980-1990 period, the municipal requirements for water at Gillette will increase to 8,200 acre-ft/yr. This in- creased withdrawal, which is equivalent to about 5,020 gpm, pre- sents a significant possibility for aquifer depletion from either the local well field or the Madison aquifer near Sundance. Be- cause both Gillette and Casper are projected to use groundwater as a source for municipal needs, there will be no major impacts on local surface water hydrology as a result of withdrawals. Increased capacity requirements for both water supply and wastewater capacities will be needed. Both cities may be able to sell effluents for reclamation or irrigation and thus satisfy the requirements for ZDP. Runoff will be increased by the expansion of existing towns, and some lowering of the water quality in nearby streams is ex- pected from this. The potential for aquifer pollution from increased septic tank use in rural areas will be similar to that described for the preceding decade but will be larger in magnitude. (3) To 2000 The coal mine and conversion facility for the Synthane plant will be operating by 1995. The Synthoil operation will be in production by 2000. The other energy conversion facilities, their associated mines, and the gas wells will continue operation dur- ing this decade, so that all hypothesized facilities will be in operation in 2000. By 2000, a total of 11,050 acres will have been disturbed by the coal mines (calculated from Table 7-20). Disturbed land will impound runoff water and thus reduce the amount of water available to local streams. Total annual water consumption is about 82,900 acre-ft/yr of which 45,200 acre-ft/yr will be with- drawn from the Yellowstone River (for the power, Lurgi, and Synthane plants), 35,800 acre-ft/yr will be withdrawn from the North Platte River (for the Synthoil plant and coal slurry pipe- line) , and 1,900 acre-ft/yr will be withdrawn from the Madison aquifer (for uranium operations and natural gas production). Total withdrawal from the Yellowstone River represents 1.0 percent of its low flow, and total withdrawal from the North Platte River represents 22.5 percent of its low flow. In addition, rec- lamation of coal mines may require 3,200 acre-ft/yr. 545 ------- Municipal requirements for water will increase to 14,900 acre-ft/yr at Gillette and 2,400 acre-ft/yr at Casper (Table 7-24) due to the population increases from the energy conversion fa- cilities. This increased withdrawal will lower groundwater lev- els, especially in the shallow aquifers in the Gillette area and the liadison aquifer near Sundance. To meet these water needs, either the well field in the vicinity of Sundance could be ex- panded or surface water pipelines could be used to import water. Wastewater treatment facilities at Gillette must be expanded to accommodate the additional needs (see Table 7-25). Effluents will continue to be used for reclamation or irrigation and thereby satisfy the requirements for ZDP by 1985. Runoff from urban expansion will continue to increase result- ing in further lowering of the water quality in nearby streams. The potential for aquifer pollution from increased use of septic tanks by rural populations will increase as in previous decades. (4) After 2000 The mines will continue to operate with the same impacts as stated in the 1990-2000 decade until they are exhausted. Although many areas will be reclaimed and revegetated after the mines and their associated energy conversion facilities are decommissioned, irrigation of the areas will cease, some vegetation will be lost, and erosion will increase. After the mines shut down and are recontoured and revegetated, disruption of shallow aquifer sys- tems will continue, and surface flows will continue to be modi- fied both in volume and quality. After the energy conversion facilities are shut down, the berms around the ponds will probably lose their protective vege- tation and erode, eventually resulting in breaches in the berms. When this happens, the materials within the pond site will erode and enter the surface water system or percolate into the ground- water aquifers. The low precipitation in the scenario area will be a retarding factor in the transport of these materials. Population levels will remain stable at least until the mines and associated energy conversion technologies are decommissioned. Thus, groundwater depletions will continue, and there will be a reduction in the quality of surface water resources in the vicin- ity of Gillette and Casper due to runoff from the population in- creases. The amount of water in any surface water sources used to supply municipal needs will also be reduced. 7.3.5 Summary of Water Impacts Water impacts are caused by (1) the water requirements of and effluents from the energy facilities, (2) the water 546 ------- requirements of and wastewater generated by associated population increases, and (3) the coal and uranium mining processes. The impacts of the water requirements of the energy facilities depend largely on the source of that water. In the immediate vi- cinity of Gillette, supplies of groundwater and surface water are insufficient; and water must be imported by pipeline from such sources as the Yellowstone River and its tributaries (Cla-rks Fork, Bighorn, Tongue, and Powder), Belle Fourche River, Green River, North Platte River, and Lake Oahe on the Upper Missouri River in South Dakota. The cost for this water will vary with the dis- tance from the facility site. However, before these sources can be used for energy development, legal restrictions from several compacts need to be lifted. This analysis hypothesized that water for energy development would be withdrawn from several sources including the Yellowstone River, the North Platte River, the Madison limestone aquifer, and shallow aquifers in the Fort Union Formation. Under a worst-case condition, when any one facility was operating at the expected load factor on the day when the river was at low flow, the facil- ity would withdraw from 4.8 to 21.3 percent (Lurgi-power plant) of the North Platte and 0.1 to 0.7 percent of the Yellowstone River. Average withdrawals are considerably lower percentages of the annual average flow rates on the rivers. The average flow rate on the Yellowstone is 8,200,000 acre-ft/yr. Annual average withdrawals by energy facilities (assuming they are high wet cooled and operating at expected annual average load factors) are: for Lurgi-5,823 acre-ft/yr; for Synthane-7,776 acre-ft/yr; for Synthoil-9,227 acre-ft/yr; for the power plant-25,842 acre- ft/yr; for the slurry pipeline-18,390 acre-ft/yr; for uranium production-1,350 acre-ft/yr; solutional uranium facility-200 acre-ft/yr; and for natural gas production-380 acre-ft/yr. The use of intermediate wet cooling by these facilities operating at expected load factors can reduce these requirements by 19 to 75 percent. The energy development hypothesized in this scenario analysis which calls for the power, Lurgi, and Synthane plants to obtain water from the Yellowstone River and the Synthoil plant and slurry pipeline to obtain water from the North Platte River would require 1.1 percent of the Yellowstone River flow and 21.6 percent of the North Platte under worst-case conditions (ex- pected load factors and low flow on the rivers). The impact of these withdrawals on the North Platte River during low-flow pe- riods could be significant in terms of flow depletion and salt- concentrating effects. Alternate surface sources or the use of groundwater to meet part of the needs may be necessary. Similarly, the water requirement of the uranium mill is expected to con- tribute to the depletion of its water source, the Madison aquifer. Solid effluents from the following energy facilities in tpd average 2,300 from the power plant, 2,500 from the Synthoil plant, slightly less than 1,400 from the Synthane plant and Lurgi plant, 547 ------- 1,000 from the uranium mill, and 10 from the solutional uranium facility. The objective of ZDP set forth in the Federal Water Pollution Control Act1 will necessitate on-site entrapment and disposal of effluents. Therefore effluents will be discharged into clay-lined, on-site evaporative holding ponds. Furthermore, runoff prevention systems will be installed to direct runoff to a holding pond or to a water treatment facility. These methods protect the quality of surface water systems (at least for the life of the plants), but groundwater quality may be reduced by leakage and leaching from the disposal ponds and pits. Similarly, dry solid wastes such as the tailings produced by the uranium mill will be disposed of in tailing ponds which may pose a particularly large hazard to local aquifers should the tailing pond leak. By the year 2000, municipal water use will total 17,493 acre- ft/yr in the scenario area due to energy-related increases in population. Most of the municipal water supply will be taken from groundwater supplies. The population increase in Gillette will increase the water requirement significantly (by 14,837 acre-ft/ yr) and may contribute to depletion of local aquifers and the Madison aquifer. Also, Gillette will need new wastewater treat- ment facilities (4.4 MMgpd) by the year 2000. The surface coal mines may have several disturbing effects on the local Fort Union Formation and Wasatch aquifers. The coal mines will probably intersect aquifers and disrupt their flow patterns. If mine dewatering is necessary, aquifer depletion may result. Local springs and seeps on hillsides may dry up, water levels in local wells may be lowered, and the base flow of streams in the area may be reduced. Moreover, natural precipitation and water added for revegetation may pick up contaminants from mining activities and transport them to local aquifers. By the year 2000, about 11,050 acres will have been disturbed by the coal mines. Disturbed land will impound runoff water and thus reduce the amount of water available to local, ephemeral streams. The change in local stream flow patterns will, in turn, affect wildlife habits. 7.4 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS 7.4.1 Introduction All the hypothetical developments in the Gillette scenario will occur in Campbell County in northeast Wyoming. This area experienced an oil and gas boom in the 1960's, followed by a population decline in the latter part of that decade. The cur- rent coal boom began in the early 1970's, and the area's federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, Pub. L. 92-500, §§ 101, 301, 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976) 548 ------- population was twice that of 1960. With the hypothetical develop- ment included in this scenario, the population will continue to increase but at an accelerated rate. Most of the social and eco- nomic impacts in the area will be related to population growth. 7.4.2 Existing Conditions Campbell County has an area of 3 million acres. In 1974, its population was 12,000 by U.S. Census Bureau estimates, giving it a population density of 2.7 persons per square mile. Local estimates run as high as 17,000 for 1975. More than 80 percent of the population is centered in the only incorporated city, Gillette, which is the county seat. Since much of the population growth has occurred as a consequence of energy development, the population is disproportionately young and male. Table 7-27 gives the employment distributions in Gillette during 1970 and in Campbell County during 1970 and 1975. As shown, construction, mining, and services are the major employers. Gillette also receives some economic benefit from hunters and tourists en route to Devil's Tower National Monument, the Black Hills, and Bighorn National Forest. Due to its location on Interstate 90, Gillette also serves some visitors to Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks. Campbell County is governed by a board of three county com- missioners elected at large for 4-year terms. The incumbents currently are all ranchers, indicating that long-time residents of the area have not been displaced by newcomers as quickly as might be expected with a rapid influx of new population. The county provides few services by itself, in part because they are provided by the state (social and health services) or by the city and county jointly under the Wyoming Joint Powers Act.1 The school system is countywide, and fire protection and airport services are provided cooperatively by the city and county. The city and county also cooperate in planning, animal control, park maintenance, and snow removal. As noted earlier, Campbell County now provides about one-third of the support for the city of Gillette Department of Planning and Development, which is responsible for planning, zoning administration, city engineering, and building inspection. The staff consists of a planner, assistant planner, planning intern, city engineer, and several building inspectors. act gives county and/or city governments the powers of both governments when they work together. For a description of this legislation, see Hayen, Roger L. , and Gary L. Watts. A Description of Potential Socioeconomic Impacts from Coal-Related Developments in Campbell County, Wyoming. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy De- velopment, 1975, pp. 70-71. 549 ------- TABLE 7-27: EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY INDUSTRY FOR 1970 AND 1975 INDUSTRY Agriculture Mining Construction Manufacturing Transportation Communication and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Services Public Administration Total CAMPBELL COUNTY 1970 NUMBER 601 1,323 268 156 359 96 129 706 162 907 96 4,803 PERCENT 12.5 27.5 5.6 3.2 7.5 2.0 2.7 14.4 3.4 18.9 2.0 99.7 CAMPBELL COUNTY 1975 NUMBER 579 1,406 1,604 168a 457 175 164 898b 206 1,154C 122 6,933 PERCENT 8.4 20.3 23.1 2.4 6.6 2.5 2. 4 12.9 3.0 16.6 1.8 100.0 Source: 1970 - U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Census of Population; 1970 General Social and Economic Characteris- tics . Washington, B.C.: Government Printing Office, 1971. 1975 - Estimated from Matson, Roger A., and Jeanette B. Studer. Energy Resources Development in Wyoming Powder River Basin; An Assessment of Potential. Social and Economic Impacts, prepared for Northern Great Plains Resources Program. Cheyenne, Wyo.: University of Wyoming, Water Resources Research Institute, 1974, p. 80. aMostly nonelectric machinery. ^Mostly motor vehicles and service stations. °To a large extent in public schools. 550 ------- Gillette is governed by a part-time mayor and six council- men who are elected for 4-year terms. The city also has a full- time city administrator. In addition to those services provided jointly with the county, the city provides its residents sewer, garbage, and electrical services. The electrical utility was re- cently expanded, but the city's application to the Economic Devel- opment Administration (EDA) for $2 million to fund the extension and improvement of its sewage treatment facilities has been de- nied. The sewer system has recently been expanded through loans from the Wyoming Farm Loan Board. The single countywide school district has met the needs of a growing population. In Gillette, two new elementary schools and a junior high school have been built, and two existing ele- mentary schools have been enlarged. In large part, education problems have been minimal because the rate of population growth has been relatively steady and because the county's tax base has expanded with energy development. In addition to the help provided by the state under the pro- grams mentioned above, Gillette receives assistance from the Gillette Human Services Project, staffed by recent graduates of the University of Wyoming. This program (funded by EDA, state revenue sharing funds, the Campbell County Children's Center, and some energy developers) provides research assistance for finding solutions to growth-related problems and also provides extra man- power to human service agencies in impacted communities.1 7.4.3 Factors Producing Impacts Two factors associated with energy facilities dominate as the cause of social and economic impacts: manpower requirements and taxes levied on energy facilities. Tax rates are tied to capital costs, and/or the value of the coal extracted, and/or the value of energy produced. Taxes which apply to the Gillette scenario facilities (power plant, Lurgi plant, Synthane plant, Synthoil plant, coal rail transport, coal slurry pipline, gas wells, and a uranium mill) and their associated mines are: a property tax, sales tax, severance tax, and royalty payments on federally owned coal. The manpower requirements for each scenario facility and its associated mine are given in Tables 7-28 to 7-35. For the coal mines and the uranium mines, manpower requirements for operation exceed peak construction manpower requirements by two times. However, the reverse is true for the power, Lurgi, Synthane, and Uhlmann, Julie M. Gillette Human Services Project, Annual Report, August 31, 1976. Laramie, Wyo.: University of Wyoming, Wyoming Human Services Project, 1976. 551 ------- TABLE 7-28: MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A 3,000 MEGAWATT POWER PLANT AND ASSOCIATED MINE3 YEAR FROM START 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE MINE 0 36 211 205 211 169 0 0 POWER PLANT 0 40 420 905 1,315 2,265 2,545 1,990 720 0 OPERATION WORK FORCE MINE 0 275 275 552 552 POWER PLANT 0 109 109 218 436 436 TOTAL IN ANY ONE YEAR 0 40 420 941 1,526 2,579 3,140 2,652 1,708 988 MWe = megawatt-electric aData are for a 3,000 MWe power plant and a surface coal mine large enough to supply that power plant (about 12.8 million tons per year) and are from Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975; data uncertainty is -10 to +20 percent. Synthoil plants and the gas wells. The peak construction man- power requirements for these facilities exceed the operation re- quirements by 1.7 (Synthoil plant) to 7 times (Lurgi and Synthane plants). In combination, the total manpower requirement for each coal mine-conversion facility increases from the first year when construction begins, peaks, and then declines as construction activity ceases. Peak total manpower requirements for the Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil mine-plant combinations are about 5,000, and, for the power plant, about 3,100. The fraction of the peak total manpower requirement needed for operation of the mine-plant combination ranges from 0.2 for the Lurgi and Synthane plants to 0.6 for the Synthoil plant. The total manpower required for opera- tion of the Synthoil facility and its associated mine is more than three times that of the other plant-mine combinations. Property and sales taxes, which are tied to capital costs of the facilities, and a severance tax and royalty payments, which are tied to the value of coal, generate revenue for the state and local governments. 552 ------- TABLE 7-29: MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A LURGI PLANT AND ASSOCIATED MINE3 YEAR FROM START 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE MINE 0 29 169 164 169 135 0 LURGI PLANT 0 36 609 2,687 4,682 2,662 0 OPERATION WORK FORCE MINE 0 220 220 442 442 LURGI PLANT 0 589 589 589 TOTAL IN ANY ONE YEAR' 0 65 778 2,851 5,071 3,606 1,031 1,031 aData are for a Lurgi plant and a coal mine large enough to supply that plant (about 9.4 million tons per year) and are from Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation,1975; data uncertainty is -10 to +20 percent, TABLE 7-30: MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A SYNTHANE PLANT AND ASSOCIATED MINEa YEAR FROM START 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE MINE 0 25 148 144 148 118 0 SYNTHANE PLANT 0 36 609 2,687 4,682 2,662 0 OPERATION WORK FORCE MINE 0 192 192 386 386 SYNTHANE PLANT 0 589 589 589 TOTAL IN ANY ONF YEAR 0 61 757 2,831 5,022 3,561 975 975 aData are for a Synthane plant and a surface coal mine large enough to supply that Synthane plant (about 8.1 million tons per year) and are from Carasso, M., et al. Planning Model, 2 vols. San Francisco, Calif.: Corporation, 1975; data uncertainty is -10 to +20 percent. The Energy Supply Bechtel 553 ------- I r- gg , c * in ro CN ro o r- in vo ro rH CN o in in CN r~ r- m CN CN in ocNcop'-ooromi— lo VO CTi "31 00 O O 00 in CN CN o in o ..>...>.>. CN ^ m m H O \£> rH in rH CTi O rO rH O rH ^D CN CN CN rH rHCNfO^l'inVOI — OOCTi Q) 554 ------- TABLE 7-32: MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A SURFACE COAL MINE FOR RAIL TRANSPORT OR SLURRY PIPELINE3 YEAR FROM START 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE 0 72-108 422-633 410-615 422-633 338-507 0 OPERATION WORK FORCE 0 550-825 550-825 1,104-1,656 1,104-1,656 TOTAL IN ANY ONE YEAR 0 72-108 422-633 410-615 972-1,458 888-1,332 1,104-1,656 1,104-1,656 aData are for a large surface coal mine for coal export (about 25 million tons per year) via rail transport or M. et al. The slurry pipeline and are from Carasso, Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975; data uncertainty -10 to +20 percent. t>Manpower required for construction or operation of the surface coal mine is given as a range since it, depends on seam thickness, which is highly variable at Gillette, TABLE 7-33: MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR GAS WELLS' YEAR FROM START 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE 0 144 729 1,695 1,488 0 OPERATION, p» WORK FORCE 0 58 314 790 790 TOTAL IN ANY ONE YEAR 0 144 729 1,753 1,802 790 790 Data are for 83 gas wells with a combined production of 250 million standard cubic feet per day and are from Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975; data uncertainty is -10 to +20 percent. 555 ------- TABLE 7-34: MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A URANIUM MILL AND ASSOCIATED MINE3 YEAR FROM START 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE MINE 0 57 65 81 70 5 0 URANIUM MILL 0 22 117 10 0 OPERATION WORK FORCE MINE 178 178 178 178 178 URANIUM MILL 111 111 111 111 111 TOTAL IN ANY ONE YEAR 0 57 354 392 477 304 289 Data are for a uranium mill and a surface uranium mine large enough to supply that mill (about 1,000 metric tons per year) and are from Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975; data uncertainty is -10 to +20 percent. TABLE 7-35: MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A SOLUTIONAL URANIUM MINE3 YEAR FROM START 1 2 3 4 CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE 50 20 0 0 OPERATION WORK FORCE 0 60 60 60 TOTAL IN ANY ONE YEAR 50 70 60 60 aData are for a 250 ton per year in situ solutional mining operation and are from Larson, W.C., Geologist, Twin Cities Mining Research Centers, U.S. Bureau of Mines. Personal communication, November 23, 1977. 556 ------- The capital costs of the conversion facilities and mines hypothesized for the Gillette scenario are given in Table 7-36. Costs range from 8 to 30 (uranium facilities) to 2,170 million 1975 dollars (mine-Synthoil plant facility). Property tax, most of which goes to local government, is levied on the cash value of the facility (approximately the total capital cost given in Table 7-36) after construction of the facility is completed. Sales tax, most of which goes to the state government, is levied on materials and equipment only (Table 7-36) as these materials and equipment are purchased during construction. The current sales tax rate in Wyoming is 4 percent, and the property tax rate in Campbell County is about 2.52 percent.1 In addition, there is a severance tax levied at a rate of 3.5 percent on the value of the coal mined. This revenue will be used for loans to the local government with interest going to the state government. Royalty payments are about 12.5 percent of the value of federally owned coal,2 of which 50 percent is returned to state and local government. 7.4.4 Impacts The nature and extent of the social and economic impacts caused by these factors depend on the size and character of the community or communities in which workers and their families live, on the state and local tax structure, and on many, other social and economic factors. A scenario, which calls for the development of power, Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil plants, coal rail transport, coal slurry pipeline, gas wells, uranium mines, and a mill accord- ing to a specified time schedule (see Table 7-1), is used here as a vehicle through which the nature and extent of the impacts are explored. The discussion relates each impact type to the hypo- thetical scenario and includes population impacts, housing and school impacts, economic impacts, fiscal impacts, social and cul- tural impacts, and political and governmental impacts. A. Population Impacts In this scenario, the principal initial impact of energy de- velopment on Gillette and northern Wyoming was from the workers associated with the construction of an export surface coal mine in 1975 and with gas drilling activities in 1976. The employment related to the eight scenario developments is summarized in Table 7-37. The cyclincal nature of the construction activity is '•This is the effective, average property tax rate. The actual tax rate is computed using a number of assessment ratios, since certain kinds of equipment (e.g., pollution control equip- ment) are taxed at different rates or may be exempt. 2This is the federal government target rate; actual rates will vary from mine to mine. 557 ------- TABLE 7-36: CAPITAL RESOURCES REQUIRED FOR CONSTRUCTION OF FACILITIES (in millions of 1975 dollars)a FACILITIES Coal Conversion Facilities Power Plant (3,000 MWe) Lurgi or Synthane Gasification Plant (250 MMcfd) Synthoil Plant (100,000 bbl/day) Associated Surface Coal Mines For Power Plant (12.8 MMtpy) For Lurgi Plant (9.4 MMtpy) For Synthane Plant (8.1 MMtpy) ' For Synthoil Plant (12.1 MMtpy) Surface Coal Mine for Coal Export via rail transport or slurry pipeline (25 MMtpy) Uranium Mine and Mill (1,000 mtpy) Uranium Mine (Solutional, 250 mtpy) MATERIALS AND EQUIPMENT 461 469 689 72 52 46 65 137 8 2 LABOR AND OTHER 461 369 832 39 28 26 35 74 16 4 INTEREST DURING CONSTRUCTION 394 219 649 33 24 21 30 63 6 2 TOTAL 1,316 1,057 2,170 144 104 93 130 274 30 8 MWe = megawatt-electric MMcfd = million cubic feet per day bbl/day = barrels per day MMtpy = million tons per year mtpy = metric tons per year Data are adjusted (assuming linearity) to correspond to the facility size hypothesized in this scenario and are from Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model. San Francisco, Calif.: Betchel Corporation, 1975; and Larson, W.C., Geologist, Tw,in Cities Mining Research Centers, U.S. Bureau of Mines. Personal communication, 1977, At 10 percent per year. 558 ------- TABLE 7-37: NEW EMPLOYMENT IN ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN CAMPBELL COUNTY, 1975-2000 (person years) YEAR 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 CONSTRUCTION 110 780 1,340 2,370 2,420 1,080 2,780 5,800 8,130 5,530 760 0 0 0 0 60 760 2,830 4,890 3,380 2,280 4,490 5,210 3,710 1,250 0 OPERATION 0 0 0 880 1,140 2,450 2,450 2,680 3,890 5,080 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 6,110 6,700 6,890 6,890 6,890 7,170 8,640 10,380 TOTAL 110 780 1,340 3,250 3,560 3,530 5,230 8,480 12,020 10,610 ' 6,680 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,980 6,980 8,750 11,000 10,080 9,170 11,380 12,100 10,880 9,890 10,380 Source: Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975; and Larson, W.C., Geologist, Twin Cities Mining Research Centers, U.S. Bureau of Mines. Personal communica- tion, 1977. 559 ------- evident, but a long-term new energy work force of over 10,000 persons is expected by 2000.1 Overall population changes are based on the annual energy employment (for both construction and operation) and are estimated by means of an economic base model, the employment data in Table 7-37, and two sets of time-dependent multipliers (Table 7-38). The population estimates, shown in Table 7-39 and Figure 7-6, were distributed among Gillette, the remainder of Campbell County, and Casper. No new population clusters in Campbell County are explicitly considered here, al- though scattered settlement is becoming more common. For example, Atlantic Richfield is providing housing at the town of Wright (near Reno Junction), about 40 miles south of Gillette.2 Note that the population impacts would differ significantly for a construction schedule different from that analyzed here. The population of Campbell County will increase over four- fold to 75,400 by the year 2000 given the energy development proposed in the Gillette scenario. Most of this growth will occur in and near Gillette, where the area will attain a popula- tion of about 69,000 by 2000. Casper will achieve a population of over 50,000«as a result of the scenario development and will grow even larger if other extensive developments take place in eastern and central Wyoming. The size of the facilities in this scenario result in somewhat larger population estimates for Campbell County than previous studies have found; thus, the pop- ulation discussed in this section may overestimate future condi- tions. 3 Age-sex distributions of the projected population in Campbell County provide an indication of housing and educational needs in the area. Using 1970 age distributions, new employment in the 1 Based on projections using Bechtel's energy supply planning model. See Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model, San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation,1975. 2"Town Revived in Coal Boom." Denver Post, July 13, 1976. 3See, for example, U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation and Center for Interdisciplinary Studies. Anti- cipated Effects of Major Coal Development on Public Services, Costs, and Revenues in Six Selected Counties. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974, pp. 149-75; and Wyoming, Department of Economic Planning and Development. Coal and Uranium Development of the Powder River Basin—An Impact Analysis. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Wyoming, Department of Economic Planning and Development, 1974, pp. 51-75. 560 ------- TABLE 7-38: EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION MULTIPLIERS FOR GILLETTE SCENARIO POPULATION ESTIMATES SERVICE/BASIC MULTIPLIERS3 YEAR 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 and after CONSTRUCTION 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 OPERATION 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 POPULATION/EMPLOYEE MULTIPLIERS13 Construction 2.05 Operation 2.30 Services 2.00 aThese values were selected after examining several studies of the northeastern Wyoming area, including Hayen, Roger L., and Gary L. Watts. A Description of Potential Socioeconomic Impacts from Coal-Related Developments on Campbell County, Wyoming. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975; Northern Great Plains Resources Program, Socioeconomic and Cultural Aspects Work Group. Socioeconomic and Cultural Aspects of Potential Coal Development in the Northern Great Plains, Discussion Draft. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974; U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, et al. Final Environ- mental Impact Statement for the Proposed Development of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal Basin of Wyoming, 6 vols. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Bureau of Land Management, 1974; Wyoming, Department of Economic Planning and Devel- opment. Coal and Uranium Development of the Powder River Basin—An Impact Analysis. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Wyoming, Department of Economic Planning and Development, 1974; U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation and Center for Interdisciplinary Studies. Anticipated Effects of Major Coal Development on Public Services, Costs, and Revenues in Six Selected Counties. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974; Matson, Roger A., and Jeanette B. Studer. Energy Resources Development in Wyoming's Powder River Basin: An Assessment of Potential Social and Economic Impacts. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974. "Adapted from Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976. 561 ------- TABLE 7-39: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR CAMPBELL COUNTY, GILLETTE, AND CASPER, 1975-2000a YEAR 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 CAMPBELL COUNTYb 17,000C 30,600 49,700 49,400 63,450 75,400 GILLETTE 14,000° 26,650 44,800 44,500 57,700 69,200 CASPER 40,000 42,200 45,000 46,750 48,650 50,600 aEstimates incorporate an annual natural increase of 0.8 percent through 1990 and 0.5 percent from 1991-2000. Some yearly peaks, caused by the employment needs in Table 7-38, are missed in the above presentation. Given the assumptions of the scenario, the estimates of population increase should be considered to have a ±20 percent range associated with them. bCampbell County was assumed to be the location for 100 percent of all energy development employment in the scenario, with 90 percent occurring in or near Gillette and the remaining 10 per- cent at Casper. GSource: Local estimates (Enzi, Mike, Mayor of Gillette, Wyoming. Personal communication). U.S. Census estimates are closer to 12,000 and 10,000 for the county and city, respectively. county was assumed to correspond to data reported in the Con- struction Worker Profile. l The marital status of construction workers and age -distribu- tion of their children were also assumed to be distributed ac- cording to recent survey findings in the West. The resulting age-sex distributions (Table 7-40) show increases in the 25-34 age group through 1985 and in the 35-64 age groups after 1985. During' intensive construction periods, the relative proportion of males to females is especially high, although males compose at least 51.5 percent of the population throughout the 25-year period. Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C. : Old West Regional Commission, 1976, p. 38. 562 ------- Campbell County Gillette 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 70 —i Casper 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 7-6: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR CAMPBELL COUNTY, GILLETTE, AND CASPER, 1975-2000 563 ------- r - TABLE 7-40: PROJECTED AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTIONS OF CAMPBELL COUNTY, 1975-2000a AGE Female 65-over 55-64 35-54 25-34 20-24 17-19 14-16 6-13 0-5 Total Male 65-over 55-64 35-54 25-34 20-24 17-19 14-16 6-13 0-5 Total 1975 .025 .024 .090 .076 .046 .025 .031 .094 .071 .482 .022 .029 .120 .085 .041 .022 .032 .097 .069 .517 1980 .013 .018 .083 .118 .048 .024 .024 .076 .074 .478 .012 .021 .104 .136 .050 .024 .025 .077 .073 .522 1985 .009 .014 .075 .132 .048 .023 .028 .082 .074 .485 .008 .016 .088 .145 .050 .024 .028 .083 .074 .516 1990 .010 .019 .125 .114 .041 .032 .034 .071 .039 .485 .011 .023 .142 .122 .041 .032 .034 .071 .039 .515 1995 .011 .126 .125 .106 .051 .031 .025 .065 .040 .480 .013 .030 .143 .118 .054 .031 .025 .065 .040 .519 2000 .015 .139 .129 .116 .043 .025 .027 .063 .026 .483 .017 .042 .146 .126 .044 .025 .027 .063 .026 .516 aTotal may not sum to 1.0 because of rounding. 564 ------- B. Housing and School Impacts Housing demand and school enrollment can be estimated from the data in Tables 7-39 and 7-40.l The resulting projections are shown in Table 7-41. The level of energy development in this scenario results in nearly triple the number of households by 1985, rising to a total of over 28,000 households by the year 2000. Except for 1985-1990, the average annual rate of growth is over 5 percent. In 1975, approximately one-third of Gillette's residences were mobile homes.2 By 1977 nearly 40 percent were mobile homes3 because of constraints in the local housing market. To keep mo- bile homes at that proportion would require over 400 single- family homes and about 200 multifamily units to be built annually through 1985 and from 1990-2000 (Table 7-42). Some energy de- velopers are currently providing housing for their employees be- cause of the tight housing market, but other residents find housing difficult to purchase.1* School enrollment impacts will vary over time (Table 7-41 and Figure 7-7). Overall school enrollment in the scenario is expected to increase over 150 percent by 1985 and to reach 13,550 by 2000. The upward trend in elementary enrollment is broken only by a slight decline between 1985 and 1990, which reflects the absence of energy construction activity. High school enroll- ment shows a similar trend five years later; enrollment increases except for a slight drop between 1990 and 1995. At an average class size of 25 students and an estimated $2,500 per student space, 192 new classrooms will be needed by 1985 at a cost of approximately $12 million (Table 7-43). The school district's Housing demand can be estimated by assuming the number of males aged 50 years and older approximates the number of house- holds in the area. School enrollment can be estimated by assum- ing that the 6-13 age group constitutes elementary school enroll- ment and the 14-16 age group is the enrollment in secondary schools. 2Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council. Compilation of Raw Data on Energy Impacted Communities Including Characteristics, Conditions, Resources and Structures. Denver, Colo.: Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1976. 3U.S., Federal Energy Administration, Region VIII, Socioeco- nomic Program Data Collection Office. Regional Profile: Energy Impacted Communities. Lakewood, Colo.: Federal Energy Adminis- tration, 1977. 4"Wyoming Grassland Transformed to Coal Mining Center." Civil Engineering—ASCE, Vol. 47 (September 1977), pp. 50-56. 565 ------- TABLE 7-41: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IN CAMPBELL COUNTY, 1975-2000 YEAR 1975° 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS 5,000 9,900 15,250 16,250 22,700 28,300 NUMBER OF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL CHILDREN3 3,250 4,700 8,200 7,000 8,250 9,500 NUMBER OF SECONDARY SCHOOL CHILDREN 1,050 1,500 2,800 3,350 3,200 4,050 TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 4,300 6,200 11,000 10,350 11,450 13,550 Ages 6-13. 3Ages 14-16. 'Estimates.. TABLE 7-42: DISTRIBUTION OF NEW HOUSING BY TYPE OF DWELLINGa PERIOD 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 MOBILE HOME 2,000 2,150 400 2,600 2,250 SINGLE- FAMILY 2,000 2,150 400 2,600 2,250 MULT I -FAMILY AND OTHER 900 1,050 200 1,250 1,100 aAssumes 40 percent of new homes will be mobile homes, 40 percent will be single- family, and 20 percent multi-family dwellings or other types (campers or recreational vehicles). These percen- tages are approximately those found in Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.:Old West Regional Commission, 1976, p. 103. 566 ------- 40 —1 in T3 fl (0 W 3 o X! -P -P C I c w (0 £ 10 0) 30 — 20 Households Elementary Secondary 1975 I 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 7-7: PROJECTED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS, ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN CAMPBELL COUNTY, 1975-2000 financial needs would triple by the end of the century in this scenario, although there will be a brief period of overcapacity in the late 1980's. C. Economic Impacts The economy of Campbell County is now dominated by mining, agriculture, and construction (totaling 48 percent of total personal income). Conversely, services, local government, fi- nance, insurance, and real estate employ less than state and national averages.1 Gillette's economy also receives a signifi- cant contribution from out-of-state hunters. This mix should become somewhat less concentrated in energy-related sectors 1U.S./ Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Local Area Personal Income." 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Primarily because of the change in industry mix as con- struction declines in importance, the county-wide income distri- bution should gradually decline to $16,100 (1975 dollars) during the 1975-2000 period.1 However, despite this 11.5-percent de- cline, the county-wide average will still be above the current national average (Table 7-44 and Figure 7-8). The proportion of households in income categories between $8,000 and $15,000 will increase, while the proportion in the over $25,000 category will decrease. High school age boys are being attracted to high-wage energy-related employment, and, as a consequence, high school girls are being employed in gas stations and other services. This pattern is likely to continue for some time. The expected increase in the service sector will actually be caused by an anticipated expansion in local business activity. The rapid increase in the number of businesses in Gillette, which has tripled since 1968, should continue. Even if the rural population growth is greater than expected, Gillette will still benefit from retail activity because it is the only market cen- ter in the county. Casper, the nearest city larger in size than Gillette, also will receive additional retail activity because of Campbell County's energy development. To the extent that export mines are developed, rather than mines directly attached to conversion facilities, the local economy would experience less direct benefit. On the other hand, the smaller population would place smaller demands on pub- lic services.2 Tourism is not likely to be greatly affected because, unlike many parts of the West, Gillette is not a particularly attrac- tive place for tourism. Some traffic occurs because of Devil's Tower National Monument 60 miles east of town, but the area does not compare with the major national parks in the region as a tourist attraction. However, hunting of the large antelope, deer, and other animal populations is likely to increase substan- tially (within state licensing limits) as a result of the in- creased population (see Section 7.5). xThis projection does not include national trends, such as technological change, productivity gains, etc. 2 See White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. 569 ------- TABLE 7-44: PROJECTED INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR CAMPBELL COUNTY, 1975-2000 (in 1975 dollars) a MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME o o Q PS o g w in ^ o CN O en O en o O en -En - in "31 rH CN o en o o Q en o k: en .. t"1 - 00 en O en o 0 O en o 0 en °s°l •^ m W5§ CO D VO rH H rH M rH rH vo I-H vo oo co ro •f h* CO (N CN rH CN rH rH rH rH rH r~ CN VD CN m ^t r- •* ^r oo ^< n fO ^J* ^* >3 ^* ^ ro o m r~ us ^ rH CN CN CN CN CN rH H rH rH rH rH >£) rr •<* r- r~- CN U3 00 CTi CTi O\ O O O O O O rH cn co o ro en in in vo r~ r- ko r~ o o o o o o o> VD r- o oo e— I m m co ^ ro ^r o o o c o o en in o in •* P- ro m ^J1 ^< ^* ^< o o o o o o H 00 H 00 in Oi VD n* in m m m o o o o o o m o m o m o r^ oo oo cr\ cf\ o CTi CTI ------- more than 25,000 15,000- 24,000 U3 tf 3 J o Q 12 ,000- 14,999 10,000- 11,999 8,000-9,999 6,000-7,999 4,000-5,999 less than 4,000 .246 MwMM .377 .113 ••^MMBBI .066 099 .039 .039 .061 • • • • • • • i .••* ,•-»• '••.. .171 .442 .120 ' .084 .063 .036 ••••••«• .036 .048 ..«" ...' • • • • 1 1 • * • • .136 .446 .125 .094 .070 037^ .040 HMBMBMI .061 .•••' ,.• .•* ..•' • ••• ,•••• .128 H«BM^ .432 .127 MM0MM 097 .073 .040 .046 M^^M^ .060 • ••••- •••• '•••a ••••< •••« .128 .446 .126 .097 .069 •••^^•i /VIA •O3St 044 •••••••i .066 .• ,.•••' .••' ,«••* ,.••' .•••' .113 •••••^•H .434 M^^MH .129 .102 •MV^Mi^ .075 .041 .047 .059 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 7-8: PROJECTED ANNUAL INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR CAMPBELL COUNTY, 1975-2000 (in 1975 dollars) 571 ------- D. Fiscal Impacts Municipal services will be severely strained, especially early in the population expansion period.1 An estimate of capi- tal expenditure needs for Gillette emphasizes the importance of water and sewage facilities in rapid population growth areas (Table 7-45). In overall operating expenditures, per capita costs tend to rise as a town's population increases; however, much of the increase can be attributed to capital expenditures and debt service.2 Employing an average of $120 per capita, the additional operating expenditures required of Gillette as a re- sult of the scenario increase an average of 5.3 percent per year (compound) through 2000 (Table 7-46). The estimated operating expenditures are probably low (perhaps as much as 20 percent), but they indicate the increase in financial needs with a popula- tion increase. Adding these operating expenditures to the capi- tal needs in Table 7-45 shows that Gillette will have problems in meeting population-related needs through 1985 and again after 1990. A major cause of these problems will be that energy devel- opment taking place outside Gillette's city limits will not pro- vide the city with the tax revenues needed to fund the required municipal services.3 The largest portion of new taxes will come from levies di- rectly on the facilities, and the largest of these items will be the property tax. By the end of the century, the energy devel- opments in our scenario will carry an assessed value of about $6 billion, or almost 20 times the total 1975 assessment in Campbell County. Until the last few years of the scenario, the new values consist of roughly equal portions of facilities (as- sessed at 24 percent of invested value) and coal production (assessed at 100 percent of each year's extracted value). The final facility to be added, a 100,000 barrels per day liquefaction plant, is very capital-intensive, bringing $2.1 billion of new property to the county or some 18 times as much as the value of 1 See Gillette, Wyoming, City of. Catalog of Public Invest- ment Projects, 1976 to 1986. Gillette, Wyo.:City of Gillette, 1976; and Campbell County Chamber of Commerce. Economic Impact of Anticipated Growth; City of Gillette and Campbell County, Wyoming. Gillette, Wyo.: Campbell County Chamber of Commerce, 1976. 2THK Associates, Inc. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry: Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974. 3Campbell County Chamber of Commerce. Economic Impact of Anticipated Growth; City of Gillette and Campbell County, Wyoming. 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O CD O >i-H 3 O rH VH H CM en rH ^3 O in • •rl CD CT> »• " I ------- TABLE 7-46: NECESSARY OPERATING EXPENDITURES OF GILLETTE, 1975-2000 YEAR 1975b 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 OPERATING EXPENDITURE NEEDS3 (Thousands of 1975 dollars) 2,514 4,032 6,210 6,174 7,758 9,018 aBased on $120 per capita (1975 dollars) added to the 1975 figure of $2,514 million. The needs can be broken down as follows: roads and streets (25 percent), health and hospitals (14 percent), police (7 percent), fire protection (12 percent), parks and rec- reation (6 percent), libraries (4 percent), administration (10 percent), and other (12 percent). See THK Associates, Inc. Im- pacts Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry; Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, Inc., 1975, p. 41. The $120 average is probably low for Gillette. bSource: Hayen, Roger L., and Gary L. Watts. A Description of Potential Socioeconomic Impacts from Coal-Related Developments on Campbell County, Wyoming. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, p. 30. This source is particularly useful for detailed projections of short-term needs (through 1985). the coal which annually supplies it (and two-thirds of the value of all other facilities in the scenario combined). When the current mill levies—48.98 mills for schools (local and state programs) and 11.99 mills for other county purposes1-- are applied to the assessed values of the energy facilities, new revenues would be generated as in Table 7-47. The major bene- ficiary of new property tax revenues would be education. In 2000, nearly $140 million would be added annually to school budgets if the current rates were maintained. However, as indicated in 1U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation and Center for Interdisciplinary Studies. Anticipated Effects of Major Coal Development on Public Services, Costs/ and Revenues in Six Selected Counties. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974, p. 341. 574 ------- O U H ffl U CO W W JH D to W tJ « in X r- <; c^ EH rH >i m EH O Pi W W ft G O O K -H ft rH W£ • • r- I W o 0 o CN I o U I (Ti CTi t-H O c^ c^ rH 1 f\ U 1 CO 0M rH O C? rH W U PH J3 o CO O • CPi t~« rH VO O ro VD r^- ro o vo m 00 CN o kD in 00 CN o ro ro vc n) cn CD •H 4J •H rH -H 0 MH MH O CO CD rj rH (0 o • 3 ro CN rH O rH 00 CD "d o • r^ ro rH •^ in (Ti m ^ r~- o o r~ o> 00 i-H T) rH' H CD X! ft g U «. CD rj C CD CD >_l rH O o r] U CO CD Vi SH CD -G O «. CD P C CD ^> CD j_l rH tO ft •H U -H C g m • CN H O CN rH rH CN " rH 00 m' o 0) CD 4J .p CD rH rH •H O Ik. o u CO •H O G (fl j_l ti G cO CO • rH CD •O O g cn G •H G G (0 rH ft >1 rH ft ft CO >1 Cn SH CD G W CD ,G EH • r^ ro I r~ CD H Q fO EH CD CD CO in I — CTi rH •. £ O •H 4J (0 ^_l 0 • SH rH tO 4J CD O U rH CD 4-1 «. r; • O g CD PQ •* O to .. CO • (0 MH SH -H tO rH u m tfl U CO C 0 •H -P U CD 1 ft O •H CD £> CD •i-i a o ^ ft CD rj 4-1 -H 4-1 • CO C H r] U SH tO CD CO CD « Ti O MH G (0 4-1 CO ^ 4-1 •H U rrj CD G •H n g 0 U C 0 •H 4J •H G •H MH CD V O -H SH tO G CD U CO & ^. CT j_i CD G W H fO G O •H CT CD G SH CD 4-> CO CD [g < .. • MH -H t-H fO U «. y ^1 tO p., 0 rH G CD g > CO H 0 CN i H fO 4-1 CD ^ •P 0 • CN ^D r~ ^ in MH O G 0 -H -P CD CD CO MH O 1 • 0 -P -r) C U CD O g W ft 0 rH rH tO CD -H t> 4-1 CD G ft-d CD rj CO CO m <~i 4-1 •H J5 V CD C •H o g O o o •tf r~ ft^D CD •d SH rH tO tO £ G •d -H W PM -. >. 4-> CO CD U H -H fO g N O tO G U 0 U CD W CD CO .• ^. • 'd CD 3 U 4-1 •H CO >_\| ft4J C MH CD 0 g r— . cn rH «. CD 4-1 rj -P •H 4J CO C H r] 0 J_j (0 CD CO CD & Ti >H O MH G tO _p CO CD rH f"j tO EH G •H CO G 0 •H 4-1 O CD 4-1 H O tO ft •H O MH SH O CD I & g O O -H 0 4-> ft T3 -H C SH (0 O CO rH CD (0 D -H 4J <; CD U «. >i -P C rj O CJ rH rH CD Q ft g tO u G 0 cn 4-1 C CD g ft O H CD G CD CD Q •H CO >d CO 4-> CD CD -P 4-> SH (0 to [2 ' 1 SH CD O • K MH i "\| \| rH ~ ;* to CD SH O 3 tO U rH O (0 g !> 'd O G r) 4-1 (0 MH CD •r->,y - CO O SH ft G O •H 4-1 fO rH 3 ft O ft o SH • 4-> (0 (J O g ^ — SH ft CD g tO CT1 H 4-1 O •H Pi U ft -H (0 ~ g 0 C O CD G SH >i 0 CD tO U ftffi CD •H MH MH O >. SH O •H SH CD 4-1 C H CD .G 4-1 MH O 4-1 G CD g 4-1 y_l (0 ft CD Q ^ i CO • ID •• • U • Q - G O 4-1 , 00 o rH i ft •. m r-» CTi rH «. _p G g ft O rH CD CD end G •H ,G cn to . Cn G •H g O \|2 £>i U -H rH O ft CO rH tO (_\| CD C •H g rH (0 •H U j_l CD g O u T3 G 03 rH m •H 4J G CD •H to 0 0 4-1 T! CD •H H ft ft 4J X oo CD 4-1 MH O CD CD >i CO > ^ CD rH CO 0) H 1) ! j tO -H SH g • 4-1 T3 4-1 G CD G CD g CD SH 3 g SH tn ft 3 CO O U tO rH CD 4-1 4-1 t> ------- Table 7-43, the school will need only $27 million per year in additional operating expenditures to maintain current standards. Clearly, there would be considerable leeway for lowering the school mill levy. Other revenues derived directly from energy facilities in- clude severance taxes and royalties. The Impact Assistance Act,1 will collect 2 percent of the value of coal extracted until $160 million has been accumulated. The mines in our scenario will produce that much coal by 1990, so that tax collected statewide will probably terminate in the 1980's. Proceeds will be allocated by the Wyoming Farm Loan Board to impacted areas for building infrastructure, especially roads. Another tax of 1.5 percent will not terminate and will be collected to establish the Mineral Trust Fund.2 Income from the fund will go to the state's general fund, but the principal will be used for loans to localities. Finally, the state will receive 50 percent of federal coal roy- alties. Under recent legislation, royalties have been targeted at one-eighth of the coal value. (Approximately 45 percent of the coal in the scenario area is owned by the federal government.) The various mineral taxes and royalties are summarized in Table 7-48. The other public revenue impacts in this scenario, sales taxes and utility fees, are population-related. New sales tax revenues can be estimated on the basis of the incomes already projected. At each point in time, all the following factors are multiplied together: number of new households (since 1975), average income per household,3 average propensity to buy taxable goods,1 the sales tax rate,5 and the split between levels of government.6 These factors are brought together in Table 7-49 along with an estimate of municipal utility fees. The act provides funds to mitigate impacts related to the development of coal, gas, shale oil, and other minerals. 2See Hayen, Roger L., and Gary L. Watts. A Description of Potential Socioeconomic Impacts from Coal-Related Developments on Campbell County, Wyoming. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of the Interior,Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, pp. 69-70. 3$17,600 in 1980, $16,910 in 1985 and thereafter were used. "The average for the mountain states is 56 percent of income. 5Three percent by the state, another one percent optional by county. 6Two-thirds to the state, roughly one-sixth each to county and city. 576 ------- TABLE 7-48: SEVERANCE TAXES AND PUBLIC ROYALTIES (millions of 1975 dollars) SOURCE Impact Assistance Acta Mineral Trust Fundb Interest on Mineral Trust Funda'c State Share of Federal Royalties3 > ^ 1980 4.3 14.0 0.7 6.1 1985 12.0 61.0 3.0 19.6 1990 0.0 132.0 6.6 22.2 1995 0.0 216.0 10.8 27.6 2000 0.0 319.0 16.0 34.7 Annual rate. 'Accumulation. 'At 5 percent. Assuming 45 percent of coal under federal lease. TABLE 7-49: ADDITIONAL POPULATION-RELATED TAXES AND FEES (millions of 1975 dollars) SOURCE Retail sales, Campbell Retail sales, Casper Sales Tax Shares State Campbell County Gillette City Casper and Natrona Total Utility fees, Gillette3 Utility fees, Casper3 1980 48.3 8.2 1.29 0.32 0.32 0.08 2.01 1.98 0.35 1985 97.1 15.9 0.31 0. 65 0.65 0.16 1.17 4.84 0.79 1990 106.5 25.1 3. 51 0.71 0.71 0.25 5.18 4.79 1.06 1995 167.6 33.4 5.36 1.12 1.12 0.33 7.93 6.86 1.36 2000 220.6 41.7 6.99 1.47 1.47 0.42 10.35 8.67 1.66 «3 At $157 per capita. See Hayen, Roger L., and Gary L. Watts. A Description of Potential Socioeconomic Impacts from Coal-Related Developments on Campbell County, Wyoming. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy De- velopment, 1975, p. 118. 577 ------- All the revenue sources identified above for the state and Campbell County can be regrouped by level of government, as in Table 7-50. Comparisons can then be readily made with the demands for new public expenditures (Table 7-45 and 7-46). Under current conditions, Gillette will always be short of revenues for nec- essary expenditures. For Gillette to meet its expenditures, it must share costs with Campbell County or annex county land to add to the city tax base.1 E. Social and Cultural Impacts Several major groups of people live in and around Gillette: ranchers, oil company employees, coal mining and related con- struction employees, and businessmen. The managerial-level oil company employees, some of them Gillette residents for 10 years, are able to take part in local affairs, while more recent new- comers related to coal development largely are not.2 The social segregation has geographical manifestations par- ticularly noticeable in the predominance of mobile home living among new workers and their families. One effect of a large in- crease in coal-related population is likely to be yet more mobile home neighborhoods spatially distinct from existing housing. Gillette residents strongly dislike the appearance and quality of living of mobile home parks, and that condition will probably only increase as a result of the scenario analyzed here. Fur- ther, child neglect and abuse, to the extent it actually occurs, appears to be a consequence of the migrant nature of construction families around Gillette.4 1 See Campbell County Chamber of Commerce. Economic Impact of Anticipated Growth: City of Gillette and Campbell County, Wyoming. Gillette, Wyo.: Campbell County Chamber of Commerce, 1976. 2University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research. A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and Northeastern Wyoming.Missoula,Mont.:Institute for Social Science Research, 1974, pp. 49-52, 75. 3Ijbid; Pernula, D. City of Gillette/Campbell County: 1977 Citizen_ Policy Survey. Gillette, Wyo.: Gillette/Campbell County Department of Planning and Development, 1977. ''Richards, Bill. "Western Energy Rush Taking Toll Among Boom Area Children." Washington Post, December 13, 1976, pp. 1, 4. Gillette off-cials say that this is not a problem and that Richards is guilty of hyperbole in most of his stories about Gillette and Campbell. County. 578 ------- TABLE 7-50: NEW REVENUE FROM ENERGY DEVELOPMENT BY LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT (millions of 1975 dollars) JURISDICTION Wyoming (state revenues) a Campbell County City of Gillette Campbell County School District 1980 12.4 4.9 2.9 18.0 1985 39.6 17.6 6.9 70.0 1990 32.3 18.9 6.9 74.5 1995 43.8 24.5 10.0 95.4 2000 57.7 35.1 12.7 137.0 Source: Tables 7-47, 7-48, and 7-49. alncludes amounts to be allocated to impact areas. Another type of separation results from the coal trains which roll slowly through Gillette several hours each day, cutting the town into two sections. Like many western towns, Gillette grew up on both sides of the railroad tracks that run through town. As coal traffic has increased (and continues to increase), vehi- cles, including emergency vehicles, are forced to wait for trains to pass. An overpass or underpass would solve this problem but would create others. Congestion would occur at the single access point, and weather would have effects on usefulness. Underpasses are subject to temporary flooding, and overpasses become icy in winter. These conditions would be preferable to the daily inter- ruption of all cross-town interaction. In public and private ularly short supply. Only Campbell County in 1974, a people. By 1977, the town also had grown; making the people.1 Gillette has had and as a consequence, many services, medical care is in partic- eight physicians served Gillette and ratio of about one physician to 1,500 had 10 physicians, but the population ratio one physician to about 1,700 trouble attracting and keeping doctors, residents drive long distances for By comparison, Sheridan has 17 doctors, a ratio of one per 675 people; the national average is about one per 660 people. See Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted Communities in Federal Region VIII. Denver, Colo.: Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975; and U.S., Federal Energy Administration, Region VIII, Socioeconomic Program Data Collection Office. Re- gional Profile: Energy Impacted Communities. Lakewood, Colo.: Federal Energy Administration, 1977. 579 ------- TABLE 7-51: PHYSICIAN NEEDS IN CAMPBELL COUNTY, 1975-2000 YEAR 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 POPULATION 17,000 30,600 49,700 49,400 53,450 75,400 AT RATIO OF ONE DOCTOR PER 1,000 PEOPLE 17 31 50 49 63 75 AT RATIO OF ONE DOCTOR PER 700 PEOPLE 24 44 71 71 91 108 medical care. This is a matter of great concern.1 The need for new physicians (Table 7-51) will be as acute as the need for ad- ditional water and sewage treatment but is less likely to be ame- liorated by local government policy. Physicians are highly mobile and attracted by both large urban areas (and their well-equipped hospitals) and pleasant outdoor amenities. For the latter reason, Sheridan seems to do better than Gillette and other similar-size towns at attracting physicians.2 Company-supported health main- tenance organizations or other group medical practice may be necessary to meet medical needs in Campbell County. In addition, the current trend toward family practice, rather than medical specialization, may help small cities such as Gillette.3 The social unrest among the various groups in Gillette will exist until some stable pattern of social interaction takes prece- dence over the constant conflict between oldtimers and newcomers. * ^ernula, D. City of Gillette/Campbell County 1977 Citizen Policy Survey. Gillette, Wyo.:Gillette/Campbell County Depart- ment of Planning and Development, 1977, pp. 4-5 and pp. 23-39. 2University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research. A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.: University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research, 1974. 3Loan forgiveness programs also appear to be an important influence on rural and small-town location of physicians. See Coleman, Sinclair. Physician Distribution and Rural Access to Medical Services, R-1887-HEW. Santa Monica, Calif.: Rand Cor- poration, 1976. ^University of Montana. Impact of Coal Development. 580 ------- On a county wide scale, ranchers now dominate most local positions of power. This control is most threatened by the growth of urban Gillette, not by the mining and energy-related activity. The urbanization issue in Wyoming and much of the West is particularly contentious because of the desire to keep the small-town atmo- sphere, which is declining.1 The quality of life in Gillette will not be judged favorably by many residents during the course of this development. Water supply problems, medical service shortages, and the lack of street maintenance are only a few of Gillette's negative attributes that largely can be expected to continue.2 On the positive side, em- ployment opportunities are abundant in Gillette, the number and mix of retail goods and commercial services is expanding steadily, and a number of high-quality recreational areas are available within a few hours of the town. The negative aspects of living in Gillette will not be re- duced or eliminated easily. Financial strain on the community appears to be a major source of unfavorable opinion about life there. In addition, the integration of new residents into social groups and their participation in local affairs may be difficult and constitutes an important consideration for individuals. F. Political and Governmental Impacts Some of the social effects of energy development will be reflected in the political affairs and governmental administra- tion of both Gillette and Campbell County. Immediate impacts on governmental administration will occur as localities demand ex- panded public services and as the sphere of public purpose is extended into quasi-public areas such as the provision of private housing and health care. Providing these services will require a concerted planning, coordination, and implementation effort on the part of all the parties-at-interest in the Gillette energy development area. Further, the changing nature of the population University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research. A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.: University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research, 1974; and Northern Great Plains Resources Program, Socioeconomic and Cultural Aspects Work Group. Socioeconomic and Cultural Aspects of Potential Coal Development in the Northern Great Plains, Discussion Draft. Denver,Colo.:Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974, pp. 37-73. 2Pernula, Dale. City of Gillette/Campbell County 1977 Citizen Policy Survey. Gillette , Wyo.: Gillette/Campbell County Department of Planning and Development, 1977. 581 ------- will strain the existing political balance, forcing accommodation of new attitudes and values in local decisions. Wyoming, through the state legislature, has implemented a number of measures to reduce local fiscal impacts caused by energy-related growth.l The Wyoming Community Development Au- thority was created and authorized to provide loans to communities and to provide additional financing capacity to traditional lend- ing institutions for low-interest housing loans. Severance tax revenues were to be used to back the Development Authority, thus providing a better bond rating for municipal loans by guarantee- ing repayment. This Wyoming finance agency is unique because it was given the power to make loans to both the public and private sectors to raise additional mortgage money. Although the non- housing provisions of the Authority have been declared unconsti- tutional by the state supreme court, the Authority is expected to provide substantial assistance to mitigate housing shortages associated with energy development. Legislative provisions for distribution the coal tax allow the Wyoming Farm Loan Board to disperse funds collected from the state severance tax. Grants are made to communities which have exhausted other reasonable means of financing sewer and water systems, streets, and road projects. Gillette received over $900,000 in 1975-76 for its water and sewer system from coal tax grants.2 As a condition for issuing development permits for large energy facilities, the Wyoming Industrial Development In- formation and Siting Act of 1975 provides authority to require an applicant to share in the financing of needed public facili- ties and services, including schools. Coal mines valued at less than $50 million are excluded from these requirements, but coal conversion facilities and large uranium mills are subject to the Act. 3 For a detailed review of Wyoming's legislative package dealing with the fiscal impacts of energy development, see Hayen, Roger L. , and Gary L. Watts. A Description of Potential Socio- economic Impacts from Coal-Related Developments on Campbell County, Wyoming. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of the Interior,Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, pp. 57-74. 2Bronder, L.D., N. Carlisle, and M.D. Savage. Financial Strategies for Alleviation of Socioeconomic Impacts in Seven Western States. Denver, Colo.: Western Governors' Regional Energy Policy Office, 1977, p. 391. 3Wyoming Industrial Development Information and Siting Act, Wyoming Statutes, 35-502.75 through 35-502.94. For more infor- mation, see Chapter 8, Housing, in White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West; Policy Analysis Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. 582 ------- Energy development in the area will also lead to changes in Gillette's relationship with Campbell County. Public services, such as law enforcement, fire protection, and water supply, will require a concerted effort on the part of the city and Campbell County to upgrade and maintain adequate levels of performance. Although, as shown in the previous fiscal analysis, expenditures and revenues will be fairly equal between 1975 and 1990, Gillette will experience a deficit until 1983. This deficit will be at its largest, $1.2 million, in 1980. When compared to Gillette's 1975 budget of about $2.5 million, these data indicate the city will be faced with a deficit approximately 50 percent as large as current revenues. If capital costs are included, the deficit in 1980 would be about $2.5 million instead of $1.2 million. A factor mitigating this fiscal imbalance could be redistribution of tax revenues from the county since its revenues are expected to expand dramatically after 1980, nearly tripling Gillette's expenditures by 1985. With redistribution to Gillette, the total operating and capital expenditures required in this scenario could easily be met after 1980, but such action requires uncommon fiscal cooperation between both jurisdictions.l As noted earlier, the city and county cooperate on planning, as personified by a city-county planner on the county payroll.2 Along with Wyoming's Joint Powers Act, which authorizes counties to join with other local governments in financing facilities, planning for future growth of Gillette appears to be reasonably possible. However, there is no means for requiring that the Joint Powers Act be involved, leaving the vast majority of Gillette's financing problems to the city. In addition, the city-county planner's recommendations need not be, and often are not, approved by the Board of County Commissioners. Another complication to planning results from the fact that the Industrial Development Information and Siting Act applies to facilities with construc- tion costs greater than $50 million. Several of the currently planned operations were valued slightly below that limit3 in what was perhaps an attempt to avoid the effects of the law. These and Campbell County Chamber of Commerce. Economic Impact of Anticipated Growth; City of Gillette and Campbell County, Wyoming.Gillette, Wyo.:Campbell County Chamber of Commerce, 1976. 2During the fiscal year 1975, the total county contribution was $55,000 of the $150,000 budget of the Department of Planning and Development. Wyoming, Department of Planning and Development Personal communication, 1976. 3Gillette, Wyoming, City of. Statement of Planning Consid- erations, February 13, 1976. Gillette, Wyo.: "City of Gillette, 1976. 583 ------- similar specific problems greatly limit Gillette's efforts to plan adequately for future growth.' Finally, energy development at Gillette will result in changes for traditional organized interests and, over the long term, will likely affect the power base that has prevailed in Gillette-Campbell County relations. That is, the control of county affairs by the ranchers will decline to allow representa- tion of Gillette in county government affairs. Like many parts of the West, town and county affairs have been kept distinct; in fact, the population of the town is typically less than that of the remainder of the county. The reverse situation now exists with regard to the city of Gillette and Campbell County, but po- litical power in the county government still is held by the ran- chers. It is not clear at what point, in the course of future development, the political balance will shift to meet the popula- tion balance. Whenever it does, the changeover will be difficult for long-time residents.2 7.4.5 Summary of Social and Economic Impacts Manpower requirements and the tax rates levied on the energy facilities are major causes of social and economic impacts. For the mines, manpower requirements for operation exceed peak con- struction manpower requirements. However, the reverse is true for the coal conversion facilities and gas wells, i.e., more labor is required for construction than for operation. In com- bination, total manpower requirement for each coal mine-conversion facility combination increases from the first year when construc- tion begins, peaks, and then declines. Total manpower required for operation of the Synthoil facility and its associated mine is more than three times that of other coal mine-plant combinations. Property tax and sales tax, which are tied to the capital costs of the facilities, and a severance tax and royalty payments, A further example is the inability of Gillette to expand in preferred directions because of land ownership by parties, including energy developers, who are unwilling to give up their land to urban expansion. 2University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research. A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.: University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research, 1974; and Northern Great Plains Resources Program, Socioeconomic and Cultural Aspects Work Group. Socioeconomic and Cultural Aspects of Potential Coal Development in the Northern Great Plains, Discussion Draft. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974, pp. 37-73. 584 ------- which are tied to the value of coal, generate revenue for the state and local government. Capital costs of the hypothesized conversion facilities and mines in the Gillette area range from about $8 million for a solutional uranium mine to $2.17 billion (1975 dollars) for a mine-Synthoil plant facility. A property tax is levied at a rate of about 1.52 percent on the cash value of each facility, and a sales tax is levied at a rate of 4 percent on materials and equipment purchased during construction. In addition to these taxes related to capital costs, there is a severance tax levied at a rate of 3.5 percent on the value of the coal mined. State and local government also received 50 percent of the royalty pay- ments which are about 12.5 percent of the value of federally owned coal. Of all locations in the western U.S., the Gillette, Wyoming, area is expected to be one of the areas most intensively impacted by energy development. The scenario analyzed here indicates that the county population will grow over four-fold by the year 2000, with a large part of the growth taking place in or near Gillette. Housing needs and school enrollments will expand similarly. Most new housing units will be mobile homes, reflecting the reluctance of builders, finance firms, and residents to expect anything but short-term growth. Campbell County's economy has already been largely energy- impacted, although primarily by oil and gas production. Through 1985, this concentration in energy should continue, slowly giving way to greater representation of service employment related to population. The energy and service sectors will exceed agricul- ture in the county in terms of income and employment. A gradual decline in household median income will occur over the 25-year period as a result of the change in industry mix and the growth of relatively lower paying service jobs. Municipal expenditures for capital facilities and operating budgets are expected to be quite large, particularly in the capi- tal expenditures area where $163 million will be needed over the 25-year period. For 1980 to 1985, because of the increasing tax base, the county will have a financial surplus, whereas Gillette will show a deficit. Consequently, a concerted effort on the part of both jurisdictions will be needed to meet the demands for public facilities and services. Social problems resulting from, for example, the large num- ber of mobile homes and the lack of sufficient medical care will make life especially difficult for newcomers to Gillette. The newcomer/oldtimer disparity is also manifested in political con- trol, which presently remains in the hands of ranchers county- wide. Planning for the future growth of Gillette within the 585 ------- county is thwarted by both these political considerations and the growing power of energy developers in the county. The major technological choices affecting social and eco- nomic impacts in Campbell County are essentially the alternatives between exporting coal or converting it within the local area. The greatest impacts will occur during construction of a conver- sion facility, which requires 20 to 30 times the labor force for construction of a mine alone. Thus, construction of mines would not produce so great a fluctuation in the work force as that which takes place in the scenario during the mid-1980's. Importantly, however, differences in operation of the facilities are not as great as construction, and half the work force (and attendant population) would not be required if the coal were shipped from the region. However, without the plants, the tax base for Campbell County would significantly diminish. Other technological choices would produce some change in social impacts. For example, if plant efficiency decreases, due to such factors as dry-cooling towers, mining might require 5 percent more labor; if the plants were located at more distant locations, some shifts in population location of commuters might take place. If extensive export mining called for additions to rail service rather than slurry lines, impacts would be difficult to predict and would depend on the extent of new rail access to the region and the degree to which rail lines would be monopolized by coal cars. Prediction of many of the social and economic impacts depends largely on assumptions in the economic base model and, for exam- ple, of taxation rates. Improvements in knowledge of the current situation probably would not result in significant improvements in the ability to predict impacts in this area. However, im- portant changes in quality-of-life and political impacts are more difficult to predict and can only be approached by means of local data, such as surveys of attitudes and aspirations of people with- in the region or a greater understanding of the underlying politi- cal structure of Gillette and Campbell County. 7.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 7.5.1 'Introduction The area considered in evaluating the Gillette scenario ex- tends from the Bighorn Mountains eastward to the Black Hills and northward from the North Platte River to the Montana border. Most of this land is rolling prairie of 4,600 to 5,000 feet in elevation, relieved by stream valleys and buttes and ridges ris- ing a few hundred feet from the surrounding landscape. The cli- mate is semiarid, with extreme annual variations in temperature1; 586 ------- which, together with soil moisture and topography, are the major factors affecting the distribution of plant and animal species.1 7.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions There are two major biological communities present in the prairie portion of the study area: sagebrush-grasslands and Pon- erosa pine woodlands. The sagebrush-grasslands are of several subtypes, a shrubby salt-tolerant greasewood type along stream- courses and silver sage or big sage dominant in well-drained upland sites. Most of the area is big sage grassland used for grazing cattle. There are also a few pure grassland areas largely devoid of shrubs. Antelope and sage grouse, two species which depend heavily on large expanses of sage, are exceptionally abundant in the Gillette area. Wyoming also has almost half the world"s popula- tion of pronghorn antelope, and most of these inhabit the study area. Other typical animal species are shown in Table 7-52. Rare or endangered species include the peregrine falcon, bald eagle, black-footed ferret, and northern kit fox; and possibly other species threatened with extinction also occur in or migrate through the area.2 Ponderosa pine woodlands are found largely in rough topo- graphy to the north of Gillette and in a small range of hills to the southeast. The widely spaced trees provide a variety of food plants, cover, and nesting sites for a distinctive bird fauna and a variety of small mammals (Table 7-52).3 A small amount of riparian habitat is found in the prairie portion of the scenario area, principally along the Powder, 1 Packer, Paul E. Rehabilitation Potentials and Limitations of Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great Plains, General Technical Report INT-14. Ogden, Utah: U.S., Department of Agri- culture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experi- ment Station, 1974, p. 4. 2Northern Great Plains Resources Program. Effects of Coal Development in the Northern Great Plains: A Review of Major Issues and Consequences at Different Rates of Development. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1975, p. 46. 3Most of the area's birds of prey hunt over both communities; species include: Swainson's, red-tailed, and ferruginous hawks; golden eagle; marsh hawk; prairie falcon; kestrel; and great horned owl. Other ubiquitous predators include the coyote, bob- cat, and red fox. 587 ------- TABLE 7-52: SELECTED CHARACTERISTIC SPECIES OF MAIN COMMUNITIES, GILLETTE SCENARIO COMMUNITY TYPE CHARACTERISTIC PLANTS CHARACTERISTIC ANIMALS Sagebrush Grassland Big Sagebrush Silver Sagebrush Greasewood Gardner Saltbush Alkali Sacaton Bluegrass Needle and Thread Grass Western Wheat Grass Antelope Coyote Richardson"s Ground Squirrel Black Tailed Prairie Dog Western Harvest Mouse Sage Grouse Golden Eagle Ponderosa Pine Woodlands Ponderosa Pine Rocky Mountain Juniper Skunkbush Sumac Western Snowberry Stoneyhills Muhly Green Needlegrass Sideoats Grama Mule Deer Elk Porcupine Wild Turkey Bushytail Woodrat Least Chipmunk Bobcat Riparian Plains Cottonwood Sanbar Willow Boxelder Wild Rose Rubber Rabbitbrush Wildrye Wheatgrass Needlegrass Mule Deer Whitetail Deer Red Fox Meadowvole Mallard Western Kingbird Skunk Bobcat Raccoon Little Powder, Belle Fourche, and Cheyenne Rivers, and Black Thunder and Lightning Creeks. Composition of this vegetation type ranges from narrow rows of cottonwoods with a shrubby under- story to a relatively well-developed floodplain forest. White- tail deer and a number of other mammals are found principally in these bottom woodlands. Aquatic habitat is limited in extent in the prairie portion of the scenario area. Flows in the area's major streams—North Platte, Cheyenne, Belle Fourche, and Powder Rivers—vary consid- erably from both natural runoff and irrigation withdrawals. Warm-water fish species predominate, except below the discharges of several reservoirs in the North Platte. Fish habitat in the 588 ------- Powder, Belle Fourche, and Cheyenne Rivers is limited because extreme summer flow reductions leave only a series of deep holes and pools with little water flowing between them. Species tol- erant of these conditions include burbot, carp, white sucker, and fathead minnow. Stock ponds and small irrigation reservoirs usually support largemouth bass and panfish, while larger reser- voirs support both warm- and cold-water species. Mountain lakes and streams in the Black Hills and Bighorn Mountains are 'stocked with trout. 7.5.3 Factors Producing Impacts Four factors associated with construction and operation of the scenario facilities (electric power, Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil plants and their associated surface coal mines, surface coal mines for rail and slurry export, surface and solutional uranium mines and mills, and gas wells) can cause ecological im- pacts: land use, population increases, water use and water pol- lution, and air quality changes. With the exception of land use, the quantities of each of these factors associated with the sce- nario facilities were given in previous sections of this chapter. Land-use quantities are given in this section (Table 7-53), and the others are summarized. As indicated in Table 7-53, the solu- tional uranium facility and natural gas production and processing system require the least amount of land overall (200 and 1,080 acres over 30 years respectively). For coal plant-mine combina- tions, land use ranges from a low of 3,550 acres (gasification plant and mine) to a high of 5,770 acres (power plant and mine) during the 30-year facilities' lifetime. Land use for the surface uranium mine and mill (3,730 acres/30 years) is similar in magni- tude to that for the coal plant-mine combinations. The surface coal mines for coal export will use the most land overall, 6,600 acres. As described in Section 7.4, manpower required for construc- tion and operation of the scenario facilities is expected to cause an increase in urban population in Campbell County. Peak man- power required during construction of the facilities is about 2,750 for the power plant-mine combination, about 5,000 for the Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil plant-mine combinations, 1,700 for the gas wells, 200 for the uranium mine and mill, and 50 for the solutional uranium mine. After construction is completed, man- power required for operation is about 1,000 for the power, Lurgi, and Synthane plant-mine combinations, about 3,400 for the Synthoil plant-mine combination, 800 for the gas wells, 300 for the uranium mine and mill, and 60 for the solutional mine. Water required for the plants operating at the expected load factor ranges from about 5,825 (Lurgi plant) to 25,800 acre-ft/yr (power plant) assuming high wet cooling is used (Table 7-19). Water for the power, Lurgi, and Synthane plants will be withdrawn from the Yellowstone River; water for the Synthoil plant and coal 589 ------- TABLE 7-53: LAND USE BY SCENARIO FACILITIES FACILITY Coal Conversion Power Plant (3,000 MWe) Lurgi or Synthane Gasification Plant (250 MMcfd) Synthoil Plant (100,000 bbl/day) Surface Coal Mines For Power Plant (12.8 MMtpy) For Lurgi Plant (9.4 MMtpy) For Synthane Plant (8.1 MMtpy) For Synthoil Plant (12.1 MMtpy) For Rail Transport (25 MMtpy) For Slurry Pipeline (25 MMtpy) Natural Gas Production/Processing (250 MMcfd) Uranium Surface Mine (1,100 mtpd) Mill (1,000 mtpy) Solutional Mine-Mill (250 tpy) LAND USE3 ACRES PER YEAR 100 85 85 110 220 220 115 ACRES PER 30 YEARS 2,400 805 2,060 3,300 2,550 2,550 3,300 6,600 6,600 1,080 3,450 280 200 MWe = megawatt-electric MMcfd = million cubic feet per day bbl/day = barrels per day MMtpy = million tons per year mtpd = metric tons per day mtpy = metric tons per year tpy = tons per year aThe land used by the mines will increase every year by the amounts given in the table for 30 years, the lifetime of the facilities. However, land occupied by the plants will not vary after construction is completed. slurry facility, from the North Platte River; water for rail transport facility, from local shallow aquifers; water for the uranium mill and gas liquefaction plant, from the Madison lime- stone aquifer. Wastewater from the facilities directed to ponds or treatment facilities will contribute contaminants to surface and groundwater only as ponds leak or erode. The annual ambient air concentrations of S02 from the sce- nario facilities will range from 0.2 (coal mines for coal export) to 3.6 micrograms per cubic meter (yg/m3) (Synthoil plant). Typical and peak concentrations of criteria pollutants from the 590 ------- facilities for coal export, power plant, Lurgi plant, Synthane plant, and uranium mill are not expected to violate any federal or Wyoming ambient air standards. Peak concentrations from both the gas wells and Synthoil plant will violate the federal and Wyoming 3-hour HC ambient air standard. 7.5.4 Impacts The nature of the ecological impacts caused by these factors depends on the plant and animal community type on which they are imposed. For example, the impact of land use depends on whether shrub grassland, pine woodland, or riparian woodland is being used. Some of the land-use trends are now evident or could occur re- gardless of energy-related growth. A scenario which calls for power, Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil plants and their associated mines, surface coal mines for rail export and slurry export, uranium surface mine and mill and solutional mine, and gas wells to be developed according to a specified time schedule (see Table 7-1) , is used here as the vehicle through which the extent of the impacts are explored. Impacts caused by land use, population in- creases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes are discussed for each time period. A. To 1980 Most of the early impacts of the scenario will be a conse- quence of construction activities. Expected land use by the urban population and the scenario facilities from 1975-2000 are given in Table 7-54. By 1980, about 2,840 acres, 0.09 percent of the land in Campbell County, will be used by the urban popula- tion by the one energy facility which is on-line. Table 7-55 shows that shurb grassland will be the community type primarily used by the urban population and energy facilities. Forage which could be produced on the 2,840 acres would support 30-53 cows with calves and 41-74 sheep in a year (Table 7-56).l For pur- poses of comparison, a 1974 Census of Agriculture Preliminary Report for Campbell County indicates a total inventory of 91,893 cows with calves and 126,890 sheep (including lambs). The expected impact during the first 5 years is relatively minor in this scenario, primarily due to the limited extent of development. The amount of habitat removed by constructing the livestock carrying capacities are expressed as Animal Unit Months (AUM's). An animal unit is one cow and her calf or five sheep. An AUM refers to the amount of forage required to support one animal unit for 1 month. AUM's do not refer to wildlife. Estimated current forage requirements are 3.5-6 acres of forage for one AUM for grasslands and sagebrush grasslands, and 3.5-4.0 acres for pine and riparian lands. Private lands are now over- stocked, and 3-4 acres are used to feed one cow with calf per month. 591 ------- TABLE 7-54: LAND USE IN GILLETTE SCENARIO AREA (in acres)a By Energy Facilities Coal Conversion Facilities Power Plant (3,000 MWe) Lurgi Plant (250 MMcfd) Synthane Plant (250 MMcfd) Synthoil Plant (100,000 bbl/day) Surface Coal Mines For Power Plant (12.8 MMtpy) For Lurgi Plant (9.4 MMtpy) For Synthane Plant (8.1 MMtpy) For Synthoil Plant (12.1 MMtpy) For Rail Export (25 MMtpy) For Slurry Export (25 MMtpy) Uranium Facilities Surface Mine (1,100 mtpd) Mill (1,000 mtpy) Solutional Mine-Mill (250 tpy) Natural Gas Production/Processing (250 MMcfd) Subtotal By Urban Population in Campbell County3 Residential Streets Commercial Public and Community Facilities Industry Subtotal Total Land Use Total Land In Campbell County 3,043,840 1975 600 120 14 37 t60 831 831 1980 1,080 1,080 1,270 254 30 79 127 1,760 2,840 1990 2,400 805 550 425 2,200 1,100 575 280 200 1,080 9,615 2,185 437 52 136 218 3,028 12,643 2000 2,400 805 805 2,060 1,650 1,275 425 4,400 3,300 1,725 280 200 1,080 20,405 3,505 701 84 217 350 4,857 25,262 mtpd = metric tons per day mtpy = metric tons per year tpy = tons per year MWe = megawatt-electric MMcfd = million cubic feet per day bbl/day = barrels per day MMtpy = millions tons per year aValues in each column are cumulative for year given. Acres used by the urban population were calculated using population estimates in Table 7-39 for Campbell County assuming: residential land = 50 acres per 1,000 population; streets = 10 acres per 1,000 population; commercial land = 1.2 acres per 1,000 population; public and community facilities =3.1 acres per 1,000 population; and industry = 5 acres per 1,000 population. Adapted from THK Associates, Inc. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry: Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974. 592 ------- TABLE 7-55: LAND CONSUMPTION: (acres) GILLETTE SCENARIO COMMUNITY TYPE Grassland Shrub grassland3 Pine Woodlandb Riparian Woodlandb PERMANENT LOSS 1980 930 2,840 550 130 1990 1,330 12,643 780 190 2000 1,920 25,262 930 250 aAssumes land use by energy facilities and urban population given in Table 7-54 will be on shrub grassland areas. bThese community types will be affected by land use for rail spur from Gillette area to Douglas which supports the export mines, a trunk line which supports the gas wells, and transmission and pipeline rights-of-way; these land uses are temporary and are not included in Table 7-54. rail line, opening the first export mine, and developing the gas field with its system of gathering and transmission pipelines will be negligible compared to the total amount of sagebrush-grassland habitat available. Smaller vertebrates will be lost during con- struction, but many will tend to recolonize the pipeline rights- of-way after reseeding.1 Although local impacts in affected areas will eliminate some species,2 the net impact on areawide populations will be negligible. Species recolonizing rights-of-way may not be the same as those initially found there, owing to change in vegetation cover. 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, et al. Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed Development of Coal ^Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal Basin of Wyoming, 6 vols. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Bureau of Land Manage- ment, 1974, p. IV-115. 593 ------- TABLE 7-56: POTENTIAL LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION FOREGONE: GILLETTE SCENARIO ACRES LOST3 1980 2,840 1990 12,643 2000 25,262 Post-2000c 39,112 1974 Inventory ,d Campbell County Loss as percent of 1974 Inventory (Post-2000) ANIMAL EQUIVALENTb COWS WITH CALF 30-53 137-234 274-469 423-725 91,893 0.5-0.8 SHEEP 41-74 193-330 386-661 597-1,022 126,890e 0.5-0.8 alncludes cumulative land use by energy facili- ties and urban population given in Table 7-55. Carrying capacity of 3.5-6.0 acres of forage per Animal Unit Month (AUM) assumed for calcu- lations. Actual capacity on private lands which are now overstocked are 3-4 acres per AUM. clncludes total land use during 30 year life- time of facilities. U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1974 Census of Agriculture; Preliminary Report, Campbell County, Wyoming"!Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 19 76. elncludes lambs. The introduction of the rail line, which will carry seven unit trains daily, will interfere with the movements of larger, wide-ranging species such as deer and antelope. Seasonal move- ments between areas of winter browse and summer feeding and wa- tering will be disrupted. The rail line also bisects two large winter concentration areas. If prevented from movement between winter and summer areas, antelope could decline in abundance, particularly during periods of drought-induced stress. This area 594 ------- is also subject to extensive habitat fragmentation1 by energy development during subsequent years, which could accentuate this population trend. Livestock production on either side of the railroad right- of-way will also require that it be fenced on both sides. These fences will prevent crossing of the rail line by antelope and will cause occasional, temporary entrapment of deer and antelope within the right-of-way.2 Manpower required for construction will cause the urban population in Campbell County to increase by 80 percent over the 1975 population, which will total 30,600 by 1980 (Table 7-39). Ecological impacts associated with population increases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes will not be significant by 1980. B. To 1990 By 1990, the gas wells, uranium surface and solutional mines and mill, surface mines for coal export, and power and Lurgi plants and their associated mines will be on-line. Land use by the urban population and by the energy facilities given in Table 7-54 is expected to be 12,640 acres, 0.41 percent of the land in Campbell County. Forage which could be produced on this land area, (primarily shrub grassland and small amounts of streamside vegetation, Table 7-55) would support 137-234 cows with calves and 193-330 sheep for a year (Table 7-56). While the proportion of the total extent of habitat lost to facility siting is negligible, the addition of new sites will tend to fragment habitat used by the widest ranging of the area's wildlife: the pronghorn antelope. Fragmentation will increase in the subsequent decade; together with the impact of the rail- road, this splitting of the species' range could result in changes Habitat fragmentation occurs when the continuous mosaic of habitat types available to area wildlife becomes a discontinuous patchwork because of artificial barriers such as fences, irriga- tion canals, rail lines, or large barren expanses of mined areas. Wildlife species travel among different habitats daily, and often seasonally, to fulfill food, water, and cover requirements. Bar- riers which fragment habitat stress wildlife because they limit or prohibit access to these important needs. 2There has been some question about the impact of fencing the railroad right-of-way. Though deer can either jump or crawl through/under fences, antelope crawl under them and only rarely attempt to jump. 595 ------- in seasonal movements and distribution.l Increased traffic on the highway parallel to the rail line will constitute a wildlife hazard. The impact of highway kills on areawide populations of smaller wildlife will be negligibly small, but the increased amount of carrion available may, in turn, attract birds of prey and some mammalian predators, which will be vulnerable to road- kill. Because of their low numbers, the threat to bald eagles, which feed on both carrion and live prey, warrants concern, al- though areawide populations of most other predators are high enough to absorb occasional deaths without decline. It has been relatively common practice for large energy de- velopers to purchase irrigation water rights as a stop-gap mea- sure to ensure a water supply.2 If this happened in this hypo- thetical scenario, conversion of these rights to industrial use could eliminate a portion of the wildlife habitat provided by irrigated crop and pasture land. Although restricted in extent, this habitat type may be important to a number of wildlife species, including ring-necked pheasant and water fowl as well as a variety of small mammals and birds. A potential physical hazard is presented by the extra-high voltage power transmission line. Migrating birds may occasionally fly into the wires or suffer electrocution because of corona discharge. However, appropriate design can reduce the problem of electrocuting large birds perching on the towers. The corona discharge from the line could cause wildlife and livestock to avoid the general area.3 Increases in the population of the Gillette area over the second decade will induce continuing changes in land-use patterns. The effect of town growth on wildlife populations is irregular and is related to topography and the movements of people, but it probably extends no farther than 20 miles from the outskirts of town into the plains. For most species, a smaller radius (perhaps Current fencing practices on public lands in the study area are antelope-oriented; that is, bottom fence strands are 14-16 inches above the ground, and Bureau of Land Management-designed "antelope guards" are provided. Fencing on private lands does not usually incorporate such designs and has likely produced some changes in distribution already. 2 Industry has already purchased some 12,000 acres of irri- gated cropland to obtain the associated water rights. However, as described in Part III, it is not clear that agricultural water rights can be converted for use in energy development. 3Research under the sponsorship of the Electric Power Re- search Institute is intended to reveal the extent to which large power lines can influence wildlife. 596 ------- 10 miles) would include most concentrated day-to-day human activ- ity, the presence of domestic dogs and cats, traffic, noise, and suburban habitat fragmentation that would noticeably reduce the abundance and diversity of terrestrial wildlife. If, however, growth is'scattered into small subdivisions along the north-south axis of the coal field, the combined effect on wildlife habitat of both industrial and residential land use would be more exten- sive than around a single town. This pattern could result if Gillette is unable to finance sewage treatment facilities meeting EPA standards, thus favoring scattered small developments. By 1990, the urban population in Campbell County will be about 49,400, almost triple the 1975 population. Larger concen- trations of people may bring increases in hunting and poaching, primarily of deer, elk, antelope, and sage grouse. Poaching typically reaches high levels around large construction projects and will have begun to occur in the previous scenario decade. Illegal kills of nongame animals are likely to follow a similar pattern. Birds of prey are usually prime targets, especially those which frequent roadsides such as bald and golden eagles and Swainson's hawks. The peregrine falcon, occasionally seen in the area, and the prairie falcon, a resident, can probably tolerate less of this kind of stress than the more abundant species. Var- mint hunting is popular in the area, concentrating mainly on fox, coyote, and bobcat. A major increase in trapping and hunting, due to the increased human population and rising fur prices, could reduce the bobcat and possibly the fox populations. Since coy- otes typically do not decline unless concerted efforts are made against them, their numbers could increase slightly as a result of lowered competition with other predators. Patterns of recreational land use could shift if private lands are closed to hunting and other recreational uses. -This trend is already in evidence around Gillette. Ranchers who close their lands will probably keep them closed even after the first population influx has passed. Such actions could reduce illegal game kill on large areas of sage-grassland. This trend would also force outdoor recreationists to almost exclusive use of the area's public lands, particularly the Black Hills and Bighorn National Forests.1 1 Lands to the northwest and southeast of Gillette that are under the administration of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and Basin National Grasslands or are administered by the Forest Service will be affected to a smaller degree. The BLM lands are important deer and elk habitat; unrestricted use of off-road ve- hicles in these areas could be particularly harmful to elk, which occupy very restricted ranges. 597 ------- Wildlife populatons in the Black Hills will probably be affected more severely than those in the Bighorn Mountains due to the proximity of Gillette. While large parts of the Bighorn National Forest are administered as primitive areas and proposed for wilderness classification, the Black Hills National Forest is so well supplied with roads that the Forest Service plans to close some of them to reduce traffic in potential "backcountry" areas.1 Further, about 20 percent of the area within the Black Hills National Forest boundary is not owned by the federal gov- ernment. This land consists of scattered, small, privately held parcels whose subdivision could affect many kinds of wildlife through habitat fragmentation.2 The net effect of developing recreational forested lands would be to protect, to some extent, animals typical of the well-developed sagebrush grasslands (where energy facilities occur) at the expense of forest ecosystems. Water withdrawals from the North Platte and Yellowstone Rivers for energy development are not expected to cause significant ecological impacts. Localized adverse impacts may arise from dewatering the surface mines and from contamination of groundwater percolating through these mines after backfilling and revegeta- tion. Mine dewatering may affect the water table as much as 2 miles away.3 Springs or surface discharges within that distance might become unpalatable to wildlife from contamination by leached salts after flow is resumed. Although the discharge of municipal sewage into area streams is to be controlled during this decade, Gillette will probably continue current discharge practices until about 1985 (Section 7.3). Such discharge could contain harmful amounts of nutrients and perhaps some organic material. Gillette presently discharges its sewage effluent into Donkey Creek, an intermittent stream. Assuming that this practice continues, the added flow could help stabilize the aquatic ecosystem. However, nutrients carried by the wastewater could cause algal blooms in pool habitats, lower- ing dissolved oxygen levels and causing odor problems as they ^.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region. Draft Environmental Statement for the Timber Management Plan for the Black Hills National Forest.Denver, Colo.: Forest Service, 19 76. Particularly vulnerable are whitetail deer, which winter at lower elevations, largely outside the forest boundary. 3U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. Final Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed Plan of Mining and Reclamation, Belle Ayr South Mine, Amax Coal Company, Coal Lease W-0317682, Campbell County, Wyoming, 2 vols. Reston, Va.: Geo- logical Survey, 1975. 598 ------- decay. Further, the Belle Fourche River, about 23 miles down- stream, might receive nutrient-laden water from Donkey Creek, al- though the effects would be significantly diminished. Typical and peak concentrations of criteria pollutants from the scenario facilities are not expected to cause significant ecological impacts. C. By 2000 All the scenario facilities will be on-line by 2000. Land use by 2000 by urban population and energy facilities given in Table 7-54 will total 25,262 acres, 0.8 percent of the acres in Campbell County. Forage which could be produced on this land area, which is primarily shrub grassland (Table 7-55), would support 274-469 cows with calves and 386-661 sheep in a year (Table 7-56). Recreational and land-use changes along with illegal harvest may adversely affect the twc small elk herds in the area (50 in the Rochelle Hills and a larger herd, about 200, along the bad- lands of the Little Powder River). These herds are too small to sustain continued loss of breeding animals of both sexes. Another factor affecting the vulnerability of elk is the large proportion of their range that lies on public lands. The area's other game species are likely to be protected somewhat by the closure of private lands. Ecological impacts associated with land use and population increases will be similar to, but more intense than, impacts de- scribed for 1990. By 2000, the urban population in Campbell County will be 75,400, 4.4 times the 1975 population. The removal of water from the North Platte River (Section 7.3) will equal 22 percent of low flow by 2000. Periodic stress in the aquatic community is likely to occur, at least in years of low flow. Lowered stream flows affect aquatic ecosystems by changing fish distributions and behavior, reducing the produc- tivity of plants and invertebrates, reducing the total bottom area, changing overall water quality, and lowering the rate of food transfer from riffle to pool areas. Flows in the North Platte are affected by reservoir opera- tion. Reduced flow effects will be greatest in the periods of lowest river discharge, principally in winter. At other times, flow is great enough so that water withdrawal in the anticipated amounts will be only a very small portion of the total discharge. Thus, spring or fall fish spawning is not likely to be influenced. 599 ------- In the drier months, increasing stress to game might conceivably bring about species shifts favoring nongame fishes.1 Dewatering will also reduce the extent of habitat available to wintering waterfowl. Large numbers of mallards, green-winged teal, golden-eye, and merganser, together with some geese, winter on the North Platte below Glenrock. Both airborne and waterborne industrial wastes can introduce hazardous substances into the environment. Under most conditions, combined plant emissions should not add significantly to ground- level pollutant concentrations. Consequently, acute air pollution damage to vegetation or animals does not seem likely. Since the total land area exposed to airborne pollutants does reflect the number of emission sources, low-level exposure to S02 will cover a broad area downwind of the line of developments. Peak ground- level concentrations will be highest--323 milligrams per cubic meter (0.13 ppm) 3-hour average—downwind of the plant. These concentrations are below those generally thought to cause acute vegetation damage. Some evidence suggests that fine particulate matter origi- nating in the Great Plains is reduced over the Black Hills by the scavenging effects of precipitation and by the ability of vegetation to act as a filter.2 The latter mechanism may account for as much as a two-fold reduction in particulate concentration. Thus, much of the sulfates and sulfites emitted as fine particu- lates or forming subsequently in the atmosphere may be deposited in the Black Hills. This phenomenon would carry with it the possibility of slight soil acidification, but total emissions are far below levels which have been associated with locally acid rainfall or chronic damage to plants. The tendency toward soil acidification will probably also be small. Other influences in the same time frame may have a greater affect on overall vegeta- tion productivity and influence the ecosystems at large. Grazing and drought will remain the principal factors limiting the pro- ductivity of prairie vegetation, while the intent of the Forest Service to manage the Black Hills National Forest intensively 1 These nongame fishes have more flexible habitat require- ments and include carp, white sucker, river carpsucker, buffalos, and bullheads. Nongame species which may be adversely affected include the stonecat and shorthead redhorse. 2Davis, B.L., et al. The Black Hills as a "Green Area" Sink for Atmospheric Pollutants, First Annual Report, prepared for the USDA Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Report 75-8. Rapid City, S. Dak.: South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, 1975. 600 ------- as a system of small, even-aged stands1 overrides the influence of long-distance transport of air pollutants from Gillette as an overall habitat influence. D. After 2000 Land use by urban population and energy facilities (in Table 7-56) during the 30-year lifetime of the facilities will total 39,112 acres, 1.3 percent of the acres of land in Campbell County. Very little of the land in the county is cropland (about 4 per- cent) ; most of the land on and near the resource sites is cur- rently used to graze cattle and sheep.2 Little of this activity would be affected by mining, although 10 percent of the county will be within 0.5 mile of some transportation right-of-way, including rail, extra-high voltage transmission lines, and slurry pipelines. Forage which could be produced on the 39,112 acres, which are primarily shrub grassland, would support 423-725 cows with calves and 597-1,022 sheep (including lambs) in a year, which represents 0.5-0.8 percent of the 1974 inventory of cows with calves and sheep in Campbell County. Of the 39,112 acres used during the 30-year scenario time period, about 11,200 acres will be permanently lost to urban ex- pansion and facility structures and 27,900 acres will be used by mining. Experimental work in the Gillette area has shown that a cover of range grasses can be established on regraded mine spoils. Opinions differ on the length of time required to estab- lish self-sustaining vegetation, but this technology assessment assumes that 5 years will be sufficient, after which there will be no further manipulation of the revegetated area. However, since spoil material lacks the structure of soils developed over longer periods, moisture in the revegetated mine spoils will probably not be as good (nor natural nutrient cycles as effective) as those in native soils. Further, since soil moisture avail- ability and fertility are usually the major factors limiting plant growth on spoils from this part of the Fort Union Formation, revegetated areas may have less dense plant cover, lower produc- tivity, and exhibit less stability in the face of such stresses as grazing or the region's periodic droughts than adjacent un- disturbed vegetation. In consequence, the net effect of mining will probably be to convert shrubland used to a less productive, probably less stable early-successional type of grassland. 1U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region. Draft Environmental Statement for the Timber Management Plan for~the Black Hills National Forest.Denver, Colo.: Forest Service, 1976. 2U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1974 Census of Agriculture; Preliminary Report, Campbell County, Wyoming. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1976. 601 ------- The ecological impact of reclamation changes can be quali- tatively described, based on successional patterns observed on abandoned farmland in the area.1 Table 7-57 is a classification of area animals according to their preference for different vege- tation types. (Figure 7-9 shows the expected changes in area animal populations on lands reclaimed with varying success.) This diagram shows that, during the 1980-2000 time period, most of the mined lands will be in an early stage of succession (modi- fied by early introduction of perennial grasses). For example, ground squirrels, pocket gophers, and kangaroo rats will be abun- dant if spoil conditions permit burrowing, although on some mines, spoil textures may limit their occurrence. However, total numbers or biomass of these small vertebrates may be less than the origi- nal population, especially if grazing is permitted or plant cover is low. In contrast, those Group 1 species that depend on mature sage stands will be found in very small numbers. The resulting local change in prey species composition will probably not cause a change in the relative abundance of different predators. Po- tential exceptions are the golden and wintering bald eagles and the larger buzzard hawks, which prey heavily and sometimes almost exclusively on rabbits. The overall impact of hunting, trapping, and illegal shooting will probably have a more important effect on predator numbers than mining. Other ecological impacts associated with land use, population increases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes as described for 1990 and for 2000 will continue during the 30-year lifetime of the facilities. 7.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts Four factors associated with construction and operation of the scenario facilities can significantly affect the ecological impacts of energy development: land use, population increases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes. Land use by urban population and energy facilities during the 30-year lifetime of the facilities will total 39,112 acres, 1.3 percent of the acres of land in Campbell County. By 2000, urban popula- tion in Campbell County will be 75,400, an increase of 4.4 times the 1975 population. Water withdrawal for energy development from the Yellowstone River will represent 1 percent of its low flow and from the North Platte River, 22 percent of its low flow. Increased municipal water demands will be met with groundwater ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, et al. Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed Development of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal Basin of Wyoming, 6 vols. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Bureau of Land Man- agement, 1974; and Lang, R.L. "Vegetation Changes Between 1943 and 1965 on the Shortgrass Plains of Wyoming." Journal of Range Management, Vol. 26 (November 1973), pp. 407-9. 602 ------- TABLE 7-57: HABITAT GROUPS OF SELECTED ANIMALS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STUDY AREA Group I Animals heavily dependent on sagebrush for food or cover or nesting sites or combination thereof and/or other up- land shrubs such as greasewood, salt- brush, and rabbitbrush, especially for winter feed Pronghorn Antelope Mule Deer White-tailed Deer Sagebrush Vole Deer Mouse Least Chipmunk White-tailed Prairie Dog White-tailed Jackrabbit Group II Animals feeding heavily on seeds and/ or foliage or roots of weedy species of forb or annual grasses and/or nest- ing on ground in open grasslands Thirteen-lined Ground Squirrel Richardson's Ground Squirrel Northern Pocket Gopher Wyoming Pocket Gopher Ord's Kangaroo Rat Western Harvest Mouse Group III Animals nesting on the ground in open grasslands and/or feeding primarily on perennial grass seeds or foliage Black-tailed Prairie Dog Prairie Vole Chestnut Collared Longspur McCown's Longspur Group IV Animals that depend primarily on the riparian (stream-side) plant associ- ations and/or marshy or moist meadow areas around lakes or ponds to directly or indirectly provide food or cover or nesting or breeding sites Raccoon Mink Striped Skunk Beaver Muskrat Long-tailed Vole Black-billed Magpie Red-shafted Flicker Group V Animals requiring the open pine timber, juniper breaks, or rough, rocky topog- raphy for cover or food or nesting sites Elk Bushytail Wood Rat Porcupine Pygmy Nuthatch Cassins Kingbird White-winged Junco Pinon Jay Source: U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, et al. Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed Development of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal Basin of Wyoming, 6 vols. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Bureau of Land Management, 1974. 603 ------- 0) 3 rH (0 -P (0 4J •H XI 0) > •H -P ------- from local aquifers. Effluents from the plants will be ponded to prevent water pollution. Increased wastewater from the urban population will require updated sewage treatment facilities. Typical and peak concentrations of criteria pollutants from the facilities for coal export, power plant, Lurgi plant, Synthane plant, and"uranium mill are not expected to violate any federal or Wyoming ambient air standards. Peak concentrations from both the gas wells and Synthoil plant will violate the federal and Wyoming 3-hour HC ambient air standard. The sources and expected period of major ecological impacts are shown in Table 7-58. Major impacts of the Gillette scenario are ranked according to the total area and number of species which they affect in Table 7-59. Class A impacts are considered most severe because they affect the largest number of species over an extensive area. In this scenario, habitat fragmentation takes place in a large area important to antelope. Poaching and ille- gal shooting affect both game and nongame species and are often widespread. Another direct impact of the scenario is the low-flow.re- duct ion in the North Platte River from cumulative water with- drawals. Although uncertain due to lack of knowledge about the river channel in the scenario area, some detectable changes in the productivity of the ecosystem may result, at least during years of below-average flow. Finally, the greatest potential impact arises from the in- direct land-use pressures of a large increase in population. Especially significant is game poaching during construction peaks, which may decimate the area's small elk herds. Suburban habitat fragmentation, concentrated human activity, and similar localized impacts associated with growth of an urban center such as Gillette are ranked as Class B impacts. Though they may affect several species, the geographic area in which the impacts are realized is relatively small. Because the geographic area affected by facilities siting is small compared to the total amount of similar available habi- tat, grazing losses are given the most minor of rankings: Class C. The cumulative impact of facility siting on habitat quantity and quality will principally reflect the success of reclamation and the degree to which habitat is fragmented and the movements of wide-ranging species are disrupted by the new rail line and its parallel high-traffic highway. 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Ll (T 10 T3 to O 0 4) 2 a £ -H E •c o jj Li t: U £ 3 D1 4 ^ fO C --H O co ra QJ LI £ LI £ c ra a --01 H w c x < r « £ tn 4 u J 607 ------- TABLE 7-59: SUMMARY OF MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS IMPACT- CATEGORY Class A Class B Class C Uncertain 1975-1980 Habitat fragmentation Increased recreational use of public lands Growth of Gillette Grazing losses (facilities siting) 1980-1990 Habitat fragmentation Poaching and illegal shooting Stream flow reductions Increased recreational use of public lands Growth of Gillette Grazing losses (facilities siting) Irrigated agricultural losses 1990-2000 Habitat fragmentation Poaching and illegal shooting Stream flow reductions Increased recreational use of public lands Growth of Gillette Grazing losses (facilities siting) Sulfate fallout in Black Hills Irrigated agricultural losses 7.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT GILLETTE The intended energy benefit from the hypothetical develop- ments in the Gillette area will be the production and shipment of 50 million tons of coal per year, 100,000 barrels of synthetic oil, 750 million standard cubic feet per day of synthetic and natural gas, and 3,000 MW of electricity. In addition, 1,250 metric tons per year of UsOs will be produced for enrichment for nuclear reactors. Locally, the benefits include increased income to the city and county, increased retail and wholesale trade, and secondary economic development. Campbell County will also re- ceive increased tax revenues as will the state of Wyoming. 608 ------- Social, economic, and political impacts associated with en- ergy development in the Gillette area tend to be a function of the labor and capital-intensity of development and, when multiple facilities are involved, of scheduling their construction. These factors determine the pace and extent of migration of people to the scenario area as well as the financial and managerial capa- bility of local governments to provide services and facilities for the increased population. Labor forces increase the popula- tion directly and indirectly. More manpower is required for the operation of the uranium mine and coal mines than for construction, but conversion facilities require more manpower for construction (at its peak) than for operation. Of the scenario facilities, the Synthoil facility is the most labor-intensive. Suitable scheduling of facility construction can minimize population in- stability usually associated with construction forces. Revenue for local, state, and federal governments is generated by prop- erty taxes, sales taxes, a severance tax, and royalty payments on federally owned coal. Although Gillette is a relatively large community, it may have difficulty in meeting the demands asso- ciated with the expected population increase. Wyoming offers funding assistance for communities needing expanded public ser- vices and facilities to meet demands of new residents. Lifestyle and cultural differences among residents and newcomers influence the way in which impacts from energy development are perceived. As a result, if people who have migrated out of the area returned and were hired along with some local unemployed laborers to meet the manpower requirements for energy facility construction and operation, then the impacts caused by a population of strangers would not be as great. If all facilities are constructed according to the hypothe- sized schedule, social, economic, and political changes in Camp- bell County will stem primarily from a four- to fivefold growth in population. Housing demands will be largely met by mobile homes. Nearly 1.3 percent of Campbell County will undergo changes in land use adding significantly to the assessed valuation. How- ever, the tax base for Gillette will not increase enough to meet new demands placed on public services, and the political strength within the county may shift from ranchers and businessmen to energy developers. Technological variables affecting these impacts are primar- ily alternatives between exporting coal or converting it within Campbell County. Construction of conversion facilities requires 20 to 30 times the labor of a mine alone and would not produce great fluctuations in the work force. However, if the coal were shipped from the region, the tax base for Campbell County would significantly diminish. If export mining resulted in increased rail service rather than slurry lines, impacts would depend on the extent of new rail access to the region and the degree to which rail lines would be monopolized by coal cars. 609 ------- Air quality impacts associated with energy development are related primarily to quantities of pollutants emitted by the en- ergy facilities and to diffuse emissions associated with the popu- lation. The power plant emits higher concentrations of all cri- teria pollutants other than HC than the other conversion facili- ties. The sulfur content of coal in the scenario area is low enough that a power plant with no emission controls could meet the SO2 NSPS but not the ambient air standards. Both the Synthoil plant and natural gas production facilities emit HC in amounts that will result in ambient air concentrations in excess of both Wyoming and federal standards. In addition, current levels of HC in the city of Gillette are estimated to be in excess of standards, and any addition from the plants and ad- ditional urban growth will exacerbate this problem. If the Black Hills National Forest to the east is reclassified as a Class I area, significant deterioration increments for S02 will be ex- ceeded. In addition, the plumes of the plants will be visible from many locations in the area, and average long-range visibility will be reduced by up to 8 percent when all the facilities are operating. Under adverse meteorological conditions, visibility will be reduced to an even greater extent. Several potential air controls could ameliorate the extent of the air impacts, although the HC problem cannot be solved short of enclosing the entire plant or making major improvements in valve and flange design. Either a reduction in plant size, im- proved scrubbers, or coal washing to remove inorganic sulfur would reduce sulfur emissions to minimize potential conflicts with sig- nificant deterioration standards. Increasing precipitator effi- ciency to 99.5 percent would result in less reduction in visi- bility and reduce emissions of most trace elements by 50 percent. Water impacts associated with energy development in the Gillette area depend on the water requirements of and effluents produced by the facilities. Of the coal conversion facilities, the power plant has the largest water requirement and the Lurgi plant, the smallest. Water consumed by the energy facilities (if all those hypothesized are constructed) will significantly affect the streams used as water sources, especially the North Platte River where the low flow will be reduced by about 22 per- cent. This reduction in flow would also increase in-stream sa- linity and affect downstream agricultural users as well as the quality of water for aquatic life. Groundwater quality may also be affected by leaching chemicals from settling ponds and by the erosion of storage ponds. Surface water quality in the immediate vicinity of Gillette is also threatened by inadequate sewage treatment facilities. Technological changes could significantly affect the con- sumptive use of water. One small power plant in the Gillette region is currently using dry cooling, and the potential exists 610 ------- for using dry-cooling towers or wet/dry cooling for the hypothe- tical conversion facilities in this scenario. This would signifi- cantly affect the potential conflicts that might arise from using the waters of the North Platte or in transporting water from the Yellowstone River in Montana to Wyoming. Ecological impacts associated with energy development in the Gillette area are a function of land use, population increases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes. Most of the land use will be due to mining activities. However, it is expected that much of the mined land will be returned to grass- land following reclamation. This change, together with habitat fragmentation, will likely decrease productivity of selected species. Combined with habitat attrition and poaching from the increased population, some species of game will be adversely af- fected unless positive steps are initiated in protection and game management. Consumptive use of water for plant cooling and slurry transport will reduce the extent of riparian habitat and the quality of the aquatic ecosystem, and the new rail line will limit movement of antelope, reducing population size. The principal technological variables affecting ecological impacts include pop- ulation size and water consumption addressed above and alternative methods for transporting energy resources. 611 ------- CHAPTER 8 THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COLSTRIP AREA 8.1 INTRODUCTION The Colstrip area of Rosebud County in southeastern Montana is shown in Figure 8-1. The energy developments proposed for this area consist of surface coal mining, an electric power generating plant, Lurgi and Synthane high British thermal unit (Btu) gasifi- cation plants, and a Synthoil coal liquefaction plant (Figure 8-2) Extra-high voltage transmission lines transport electricity from the power plant to demand centers in the midwestern U.S. These facilities are to be constructed between 1977 and 2000. Coal char acteristics, technological alternatives, and the scenario's devel- opment schedule are summarized in Table 8-1. 1 In all four impact sections of this chapter (air, water, so- cial and economic, and ecological) , the factors that produce im- pacts are identified and discussed separately for each energy fa- cility type. In the air and water sections, the impacts caused by those factors are also discussed separately for each facility type and, in combination, for a scenario in which all facilities are constructed according to the scenario schedule. In the sec- tion on social and economic impacts (8.4) and on ecological im- pacts (8.5), only the combined impacts of the scenario are dis- cussed. This distinction is made because social, economic, and ecological effects are, for the most part, higher order impacts. Consequently, facility by facility impact discussions would have been repetitive in nearly every respect. Rosebud County's 1975 population was about 8,600, with agri- culture the major source of earned income (33 percent in 1972). Other major sectors of economic activity are government, wholesale and retail trade, and construction. Construction activity has e this hypothetical development may parallel developments proposed by Northern Natural Gas, Western Energy, Westmoreland Re- sources, AMAX Coal, Montana Power, and others, the development identified here is completely hypothetical. As with the others, this scenario was used to structure the assessment of a particular combination of technologies and existing conditions . 612 ------- FIGURE 8-1: THE COLSTRIP SCENARIO AREA 613 ------- 3000-3600 2500-3000 Below 2500 FIGURE 8-2: THE LOCATION OF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES AT COLSTRIP 614 ------- TABLE 8-1: RESOURCES AND HYPOTHESIZED FACILITIES AT COLSTRIP Resources Coal (billions of tons) Resources 1. 4 Proved Reserves 1.1 Technologies Extraction pn3 1 l^UclX Four surface area mir.es of varying capacity using draglines Conversion One 3,000 MWe power plant consis- ting of four 750 MWe turbine gener- ators; 34% plant efficiency; 80% efficient limestone scrubbers; 99% efficient electrostatic precipita- tor; and wet forced-draft cooling towers One Lurgi Coal Gasification plant operating at 73% thermal effi- ciency; nickel-catalyzed methana- tion process; Claus plant H2S re- moval; and wet forced-draft cool- ing towers One Synthane Coal Gasification plant operating at S0% thermal ef- ficiency; nickel-catalyzed metha- nation process; Claus plant H2S removal; and wet forced-draft cooling towers One Synthoil Coal Liquefaction plant operating at 92% thermal efficiency; Claus plant H2S re- moval; and wet forced-draft cool- ing towers Transportation Coal Transportation from the mines to facilities provided by trucks Gas One 30-inch pipeline Oil One 16-inch pipeline Electricity Fcur 500 kV lines CHARACTERISTICS U Coalb Heat Content 8,870 Btu's/lb Moisture 24 % Volatile Matter 39 % Fixed Carbon 51 % Ash 10 % Sulfur 1 % FACILITY SIZE 16 . 8 MMtpy 9.6 MMtpy 8.4 MMtpy 12.0 MMtpy 750 MWe 750 MWe 1,500 MWe 250 MMscfd 250 MMscfd 100,000 bbl/day 250 MMscfd 100,000 bbl/day 500 kV 500 kV 500 kV (2) COMPLETION DATE 1984 1989 1994 1999 1982 1984 1985 1990 1995 2000 1990 2000 1982 1994 1985 FACILITY SERVICED Power Plant Lurgi Synthane Synthoil Lurgi Plant Synthoil Plant Power Plant Power Plant Power Plant 3tu's/lb = British thermal units per pound MMtpy = million tons per year MWe = megawatt-electric MMscfd = million standard cubic feet per day H2S = hydrogen sulfide bbl/day = barrels per day kV = kilovolts Montana Energy Advisory Council. Coal Development Information Packat. Helena, Mont.: State of Montana, 1974. Ctvrtnicek, I.E., S.J. Rusek, and C.W. Sandy. Evaluation of Low-Sulfur Western Ccal Characteristics, Utilization, and Combustion Experience, EPA-650/2-75-046, Contract No. 68-02-1302. Dayton, Ohio: Monsanto Research Corporation, 1975. 615 ------- TABLE 8-2: SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF THE COLSTRIP AREA Environment Elevation Precipitation Air Stability Vegetation o Social and Economic Landownership Federal State Private Population Density Unemployment Income 3,000-4,000 feet 12-16 inches average annually Air stagnation most fre- quent during fall and winter Ponderosa pines at higher elevations; rolling grass- lands at lower elevations 4.7 % 5.1 % 90.2 % 1.69 per square mile 6.4 % $3,751 per capita annual a Rosebud County. June 1978 (Source: Montana State Government, Office of Research Analysis, Helena, Montana). °1972 Data. increased substantially as a result of recent energy development in the area. Per capita income in Rosebud County has been slightly lower than the Montana average, averaging out the prosperous ranch- ing activity and the relative poverty of the Northern Cheyenne In- dians, who comprised 28 percent of the population in 1970. The area around Colstrip is generally a semiarid plateau, dis- sected by several tributaries of the Yellowstone River. The topog- raphy ranges from gently rolling basins to rugged uplands and eroded buttes. Rangeland accounts for 77 percent of the county. Although most land in Rosebud County is privately owned, the federal govern- ment owns much of the mineral rights. Both groundwater and surface water are available in the area, the latter primarily from the Yellowstone and Tongue Rivers and Rosebud Creek. Air quality in the area is good, with the major present pollutant being blowing dust. Selected characteristics of the area are summarized in Table 8-2. 616 ------- 8.2 AIR IMPACTS1 8.2.1 Existing Conditions A. Background Pollutants Air quality in the Colstrip area is currently affected by several sources of air emissions, the largest of which are the Colstrip 1 and 2 generating facilities and the Ashland Timber Com- pany. Coal strip mines in the area may also cause some localized increases in pollutant concentrations. Measurements of concentra- tions of criteria pollutants2 taken in the Colstrip area do not violate any federal or Montana Standards.3 Based on these measure- ments, the annual average background levels chosen as inputs to the air dispersion model are (in micrograms per cubic meter [yg/m3]): sulfur dioxide (802), 6; particulates , 15; and nitro- gen dioxide (NOa) / 10 . "* B. Meteorological Conditions The worst dispersion conditions for the Colstrip area are associated with stable air conditions, low wind speeds (less than 5-10 miles per hour) , unchanging wind direction, and relatively :The federal standards referred to in this section are those promulgated prior to the revisions mandated by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685. 2Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air quality standards are in force: carbon monoxide (CO), nonmethane hydro- carbons (HC), N02 , oxidants, particulates, and S02. The term "hydrocarbons" is generally used to refer to nonmethane HC. The HC standard serves as a guideline for achieving oxidant standards. 3U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Region VIII Energy Office, Surveillance Analysis Division. Ambient Air Quality Mon- itoring Network—EPA Region VIII Energy Areas, Report No.908/4- 77-011. Denver, Colo.: Environmental Protection Agency, October 1977. 4These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's best professional judgment. They are used as the best estimates of the concentrations to be expected at any particular time. Measurements of HC and CO are not available in the rural areas. However, high- background HC levels have been measured at other rural locations in the West and may occur here. Background CO levels are now as- sumed to be relatively low. Measurements of long-range visibility in the area are not available, but the average is estimated to be 60 miles. 617 ------- low mixing depths.1 These conditions are likely to increase concentrations of pollutants from both ground-level and elevated sources.2 Since worst-case conditions differ at each facility, annual average pollutant levels vary among locations even if pol- lutant sources are identical. Meteorological conditions in the area are generally unfavorable for pollution dispersion more than 27 percent of the time. Hence, plume impaction3 and limited plume mixing caused by temperature inversions at stack height can be ex- pected to occur regularly.4 Favorable dispersion conditions asso- ciated with moderate winds and large mixing depths are expected to occur about 14 percent of the time. The pollution dispersion potential for the Colstrip area var- ies considerably with the season and time of day. Fall and winter mornings are most frequently associated with poor dispersion due largely to low wind speeds, low mixing depths, and the prevalence of high-pressure systems during these seasons. The highest poten- tial for dispersion occurs during the spring when low-level winds are strongest. 8.2.2 Factors Producing Impacts The primary air emission sources in the Colstrip scenario are a power plant, three coal conversion facilities (Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil), supporting surface coal mines, and those sources associated with population increases. The focus of this section is on emissions of criteria pollutants from the energy facilities.5 Table 8-3 lists the amounts of the five criteria pollutants emitted by each of the four facilities. In all four cases, most emissions come from the plants rather than the mines. Most mine-related pol- lution will originate from diesel engine combustion products, 1 Mixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upward boundary of pollution dispersion. 2Ground-level sources include towns and strip mines that emit pollutants close to ground level. Elevated sources are stack emitters. 3Plume impaction occurs when stack plumes impinge on elevated terrain because of limited atmospheric mixing and stable air con- ditions . ''See National Climatic Center. Wind Dispersion by Pasquill Stability Classes, Star Program for Selected U.S. Cities. Ashville, N.C.:National Climatic Center,1975. 5Air impacts associated with population increase are discussed below (Section 8.2.3) as those impacts relate to the scenario, which includes all facilities constructed according to the hypo- thesized schedule. 618 ------- CO w H EH H J H U <^ Cn SH 3 S O 045 05 fe !H (U co a, ^ O co H 13 co q co 9 H 0 S 04 w — n I co W o cj CJ HI X O £5 O CO CO H EH J p CJ H EH Pi CU m CO w H EH H J H CJ l<£ CM mCN CN 22 00 U3 £> H H in • oo r-- m oo r- H H , — \| CN T3 • ^o^j1 oor^ r^^j4 i — lo [ CN 'J1 CT\ H in in oo «• H O O O in ^D • C7> G\ CN CN CM VD CN i — 1 ^^f VjDin (Tii — 1 H 00 {£> o VD 1 o in ^r 0 CTs •• 00 H CN vo r-- r^ • . . . 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CM -P G rd H CU SH CU ^ O cu CU 0) g CU H S -P -P G -P -H -P CUG CUG fdCUC OCUG oGrd -H G rd 45 G rrj 45Cfd 0 -H H tn-H H .p -H H -P -H H o S Cu SH S CU G S Cu C S CU *" 3 ^1 ^1 OO hi CO CO o •H J_l •P O cu , — 1 cu 1 -P CU -P H £ -ri fd Cn tn -H CU H g tn cu II G CU II g 2 CU T3 -H rn bd UJ \|") G 0 0 C Q O M g 0 G 0 0 rf 43 13 M >t rd 45 U II II U 0 ffi CJ e cu Cn O CU rH 13 -P •H -H X C 0 •H MH 13 O rH CO 3 CU UH 13 H -H d X CO O II II CM y 0 0 CO \|Z !>i •• tn • I SH co 3 cu • H G P H W O d. • • • • 13 H CJ C fl3 • ftf Q •P •• cu - co G -P - 0 45 • -P tn J tn-H G CU G -H 45 •H 45 > CO - M fd co H 5 SH CU -p co • cu -p -p •H SH 45 O 12 Pi CU G PH •H CO 13 g CU CU G -P •rH CO rd >i -P CO C O -P U G CU CO g •rl DJ O -P H C CU rd K H CU di Q 45 CU U U fd SH cu d 0 m co o cu PH G O >i •H tn _\|_) J_\| d, CU •H G >H W U CO CU •• 13 -P CO 13 CU CU IS H •H CU fd 45 •p -p cu 13 g O ^ o U -H G SH 0) O tn co < CU 13 C O CU •H SH -P fd U CU CO -P CU O -P !H rd Pu SH H G rd o -P -H G co CU CO g-H G g O 0) SH H -P > C C fd PH -P . -P CO rj 13 CU ;> •rH -P -H tn id <4H 0) rj H 0 G •H -P 0 O 13 CO £ O •H CO CO •H g 0) cu -p rd H rj U •iH H-) H rO d (U CO CU 45 ,0 • -P G CU U !_l CU d O sf 13 G rd o m o CO cu •H U G CU •rH U •H 4H MH CU H rd t> O g CU SH X 0 IZ CO cu -p rd O •H 13 G •H CU tn G rrj Pn a • U ffi CU •H -P •H tn m cu rj H 0 G •H •P O C O r0 CO G O •H CO CO •H g CU CU CO 0) 45 EH -d >i (U H fd > CU -P rd ^ rd 45 -H 13 H CO (U CU CO CO •H SH CU -P rd 45 • •H (U £H oo H d, •rl d M O rd • CU fd cu -P MH 5 H d O 43 rd •P G fd 45 CO H U 0) CO -H -P co td ^ CU > -P cu O rd SH HO O rd SH cu d U d r) CU co rd PH G 45 O rd co U -H -P Q G -P rd K CU U 13 Pa 43 fd 4H -P >i (U O •• H S H -p G tT-H CO 0 -H d CU H 5 CU CU CO H H CU d rd 43 45 rd O rrj .p U U -H CU H g 43 13 CU O CU rH iH >i G CM -P -H CU G m SH >i •H cu O tn rd Pi g SH •P CU SH -P 13 G CU G G H U CU fd C > 3 H • O SH H 45 CO CU rd tn G •H CU O -P 45 45 O CU EH to rd CU H -P CU • rd -H > CU -H 45 rd -P O ^ 45 rd SH 13 0) G fd g-H -P O g rd -P O 13 13 O CU •P -P H H a) SH •H -H g O O d O di 45 43 0 CU -P CU H G G 43 >i CU CU CO CU O SH a) 43 .p rrj 619 ------- primarily nitrogen oxides (NOX)/ hydrocarbons (EC) , and particu- lates. Although water spray will be used to suppress dust in this scenario, some additional particulates will occur from blasting, coal piles, and blowing dust.1 The largest of these sources, the power plant, has four 750- megawatt-electric (MWe) boilers, each with its own stack.2 The plant is equipped with electrostatic precipitators (ESP) which re- move 99 percent of particulates and scrubbers which remove 80 per cent of the 862 and from 0 to 40 percent of the NOx.3 The plant has two 75,000-barrel oil storage tanks, with standard floating roof construction, each of which will emit about 0.7 pound of HC per hour. Table 8-4 lists the amounts of particulates, SO2 , and NOX expected to be emitted (in pounds per million Btu) from the power plant operating under the conditions described above and compares emissions to the New Source Performance Standards (NSPS).^ Particulate and NOX emissions just meet NSPS with 99 percent total suspended particulate (TSP) removal and 40 percent scrubber removal of NOX. If the scrubbers remove none of the NOX emissions, the NSPS will be violated. In order to just meet NSPS, a minimum of 20 percent of S02 emissions and 36 percent of NOX emissions removal would be required.5 The power plant and the three coal conversion facilities are cooled by wet forced-draft cooling towers. Each cell circulates water at a rate of 15,330 gallons per minute (gpm) and emits 0.01 percent of its water as a mist. The circulating water has a total dissolved solids (TDS) content of 3,200 parts per million (ppm), which results in a salt emission rate of 21,200 pounds per year for each cell.6 I1he effectiveness of current dust suppression practices is uncertain. Research being conducted by the Environmental Protec- tion Agency (EPA) is investigating this question. The issue of fugitive dust is discussed qualitatively in Chapter 10. 2Each stack is 500 feet high. Efficiency of NOX removal may vary from 0 to 40 percent. ''NSPS limit the amount of a given pollutant a stationary source may emit; the limit expressed relative to the amount of energy in the fuel burned. 5The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 697 § 109, requires both an emissions limitation and a percentage reduction of S02, particulates, and NOX. Revised standards have not yet been established by the EPA. 6The power plant has 64 cells, the Lurgi plant has 11, the Synthane plant has 6, and the Synthoil plant has 16. 620 ------- TABLE 8-4: COMPARISON OF EMISSIONS FROM POWER PLANT WITH NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARD (pounds per million Btu) POWER PLANT Particulates S02, N0xb EMISSION 0.10 0.48 0.65-1.08 NSPS3 0.1 1.2 0.7 NSPS = New Source Performance Standards Btu = British thermal unit S02 = sulfur dioxide NO = oxides of nitrogen The Montana state standard for S02 emissions is one pound per million Btu plus the maximum control capability which is tech- nically practicable and economically feasible as determined by the Air Quality Bureau. Data from White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West; Energy Resource Development Systems Report, Washington,D.C.:U.S.,Environmental Protection Agency,forth- coming, Chapter 2. Range indicates NO removal b> scrubber of 0 and 40 percent. 8.2.3 Impacts This section describes air quality impacts which result from each type of coal conversion facility (Lurgi, Synthane, Synthoil, and power plant) taken separately1 and from a scenario which in- cludes construction of all facilities according to the hypothe- sized scenario schedule. For the power plant the effect on air quality of hypothesized emission controls, alternative emission controls, and alternative stack heights are discussed. The focus is on concentrations of criteria pollutants (particulates, S02, N02 , HC, and carbon monoxide [CO]). See Chapter 10 for a qualitative description of sulfates, other oxidants, fine particulates, long-range visibility, plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, and cooling tower fogging and icing. In all cases, air quality impacts result primarily from the operation rather than the construction of these facilities. Con- struction impacts are limited to periodic increases in particulate concentrations due to windblown dust, which may cause periodic vio- lations of 24-hour ambient particulate standards. TAir quality impacts caused by the surface mines are expected to be negligible in comparison with impacts caused by conversion facilities. 621 ------- A. Power Plant Impacts Concentrations of criteria pollutants resulting from power plant emissions depend largely on the extent of emission control imposed. Concentrations resulting from the hypothesized case where control equipment removes 80 percent of the SO2' and 99 per- cent of the particulates are discussed first followed by a dis- cussion of alternative emission controls and alternative stack heights. (1) Hypothesized Emission Control Table 8-5 summarizes the typical and peak concentration of four criteria pollutants predicted to be produced by a power plant (3,000 MWe, 80 percent S02 removal, 99 percent TSP removal). These pollutants (particulates,•S02, N02, and HC) are regulated by the federal and Montana state ambient air quality standards, which are shown in Table 8-5. Peak concentrations from the plant will not violate ambient air standards but will exceed the Class II pre- vention of significant deterioration (PSD) increment for 3-hour S02.l Peak concentrations from the power plant will exceed all Class I increments except that for annual particulates, with typ- ical concentrations violating the 24-hour and 3-hour S02 increment. Since the plant exceeds Class I increments, it would have to be located a sufficient distance from any Class I area so that emissions will be diluted by atmospheric mixing to acceptable con- centrations prior to reaching such areas. The distance required for this dilution (which varies by facility type, size, emission controls, and meteorological conditions) in effect establishes a "buffer zone" around Class I areas. Current Environmental Pro- tection Agency (EPA) regulations require a minimum buffer zone of 75 miles between the power plant and any Class I area boundary.2 (2) Alternative Emission Controls The base case control for the Colstrip power plant assumed an S02 scrubber efficiency of 80 percent and an ESP efficiency of 99 percent. The effect on ambient air quality of three additional XPSD standards apply only to particulates and SOa• 2Note that buffer zones around energy facilities will not be symmetric circles. This lack of symmetry is clearly illustrated by area "wind roses," which show wind direction and strength pat- terns for various areas and seasons. Hence, the direction of PSD areas from energy facilities will be critical to the size of the buffer zone required. Note also that the term "buffer zone" is in disfavor. We use it because we believe it accurately describes the effect of PSD requirements. 622 ------- in I oo ^ CO a K H rt 2 )rt (S (X Oj M a EH CO t— ] o u u EH Z 5a z rt !_, Z H3 j "* en r- c ^H rg t—t m rvi ff\ r-» m LO o tM m m rH C\] mo ro un c o r-» o (N H o ^ (NJ ^H rH i— I O O O O O \o in o o vo ,-f m rH pH I. rH in o o LO o o r- o co ^o o u? rsi rn rH rH m in m • • • O O^ O P"- rH f\I in rH in "5 ^" ^ m -o o LO r* o l rH oo in • ^i \£i ro vo r* in ^D rH -^ rH ro in vp o fH i— i CD 4J (13 l-i l-l — JrHr3 rH 3 J-l rH J-l JftJQ ftJOrd (C O ua^ r^x:o 2 o •^ C 1 C 1 X C rC •p c ^ c; -^ i u c i U <£ CN fMrtfcNro fMieC'i' ^ rt O O U Cu W Z 3C tn c o XI 10 o o V, 'O >, f^ II u X O iC • rt X o • rt •o c 0) 0 Ii JJ •rt c II CJ 0 z ' QJ o •rt >^ o •rt T3 l-l 3 UH rH 3 CO II CJ O CO c c •H JJ 10 I-l o • H I-l QJ JJ CJ Q JJ C ra o •H U4 •rt £ CTl •H CO U-l 0 C C • rt JJ c o > Q) l-l CJj II Q to CH QJ IH QJ ra ra o. rJ -rt CJ IH > JJ ra tn rH rH O ra cj 3 C )-< C Q) O [fl C C o o •rt -rt 4J 4J ra ra C i-l •rt 4J XI S E Q) O 0 o c o QJ CJ c •rt 5 • \ tn 4J rH C CJ 10 > rH CD QJ 1— 1 l-l 73 0) C 3 3 0 0 Q< Ii CT n X 1C O O 10 •rt XI QJ XI U Q) -rt CbrH i-l 4J QJ iO JJ u c ra ra 3 o >- Q) -< rH tn en QJ «J X U> x: o SH EH IB ra TO XI i— 1 1-1 ra UJ dJ n o c Q) QJ c us o 3 O Q) M rH 3 'a c o o c ra tn ra x; >i QJ 4J rH tt f. 0) 4J Q) > >, rH l-r.rt tn ra o jj ii QJ E 10 Q) rO rH C •a Q) w O 0) IH .rt T3 rH CU UH .. jo o o jj 3 u tn QJ X CO QJ Q) IB 2 JJ dJ O Q) l-l CJ QJ xi 10 x; •P 4J o o o IH JJ 4J £ a. o 0 O QJ fc. •M C T) •o >, 'O CJ IB O1 CU rH Ii C IB Q) O , u c Q cj Cn O < z c o w en c; o 4J cu ra IB -H T3 H CJ • 4J t3 (U -H eo > x: ra t3 ra u W -rt JJ IB n .c cu 0 QJ d) 4J 4J 1J O QJ IH > t! ra 3 cu c C 3 0 nJ c en . n o jj c 4J j ra 01 ra c 4J cu <0 « C rJ >i d) 4J -H QJ ra j-> x: 3 > E •rH 4J rH l_\| C 01 rH rH M O (U ID C O >H O 3 10 CL - -rt IH trx: QJ > 3 JJ UH JJ C O M o -rt cj tn •i-l IH x: 18 QJ tn 2 - 4J 4= JJ C •u 4j c E co ra C O QJ O • n Q) E in 3 a • rt en o UH 43 CJ ^ E E E O 0) •• 0 (B -H c M • in jj -H ra cj uj rH . ra en cj ra Q c M C n jj Qj QJ -rt xi ra * en T> Cn 10 t3 C O QJ 10 3 O M UH l-l O QJ 4J 4J QJ rH tn CJ1 -H O > n Q) c c 4J ra ra x: -H EH x: UH rJ rJ QJ CO O 0) O js ra UJ UJ 4J -2 CO 0) tn o M CO QJ 4J T3 T3 IH CO • -rt : I-i ra QJ JJ X >- ra IH i-i o u T3 tn o o ra C T3 U-l Q, rH ^3 fC IH QJ r-i c J- ra i— ( oz ra O eo T3 ra u c c co -u QJ — i ra o E ra Cr. rH JJ -H QJ XI r rt en jJ -u 4J ra co •0 Q C >, T3 C • to CO QJ ra >- cij tc E rH ra -u 3 = 0) C K >, > • £. o tn t, -rt rj cj E ra 13 -u ra 3 a. E O o en o co •H 0) >, ^H rt r. dj * GJ o, en IH SH > 4J 5 C1J d) -rt QJ M X IH QJ ra Q o CO Q) 3 CO en ra ii QJ g 3 C 4J 01 .,_, U-l QJ £i . CO IH d) _Q 3 CJ en ;x, XI c QJ 0 JJ • rt £ . U-l T3 O Cb -> eo 0 d) e •O dJ •rt l-l X 0 01 • rt UJ 0 Q) rH 0 « C O JJ E fO Q) Xi Q) CO SI1 3 JJ CO 3 CO o ra XI ra rJ. d) SI 0 3 •H c jJ Q.T3 B C 3 0 en o en Q) ra en O QJ 3 x; jj jj tn — JJ T3 C Q) Q) > CO O d) E M QJ a in QJ lH CO •rt O en JJ c c IB CU H 0 en d) •H a X! EH 0 E ra c\ i jj ra •a QJ iH 3 CO 10 £: CO •rt T3 \|_, ra T3 c ra .^ CO CJ ij 3 0 XI I d) J3 o 623 ------- emission control alternatives is illustrated in Table 8-6. These alternatives include a 95 percent efficient S02 scrubber used in conjunction with a 99 percent efficient ESP; an 80 percent efficient S02 scrubber without an ESP; and an alternative in which neither a scrubber "nor an ESP are utilized. In each case, plant capacity is assumed to be 3,000 MWe with 500-foot stack heights. An examination of Table 8-6 reveals that by using a 95 percent efficient S02 scrubber with an ESP, the power plant can meet all applicable standards. The base case violates 3-hour Class II PSD increments for SOz emissions. Removal of the ESP results in vio- lations of National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for 24- hour TSP emissions and Class II PSD increments for 24-hour and annual TSP emissions. (3) Alternative Stack Heights In order to examine the effects of alternative stack heights on ambient air quality in the Colstrip scenario, worst-case dis- persion modeling was carried out for a 300-foot stack (a lowest stack height consistent with good engineering practice), a 500- foot stack (an average or most frequently used stack height), and a 1,000-foot stack height (a highest stack height). Emissions from each stack are controlled by an 80 percent efficient S02 scrubber and a 99 percent efficient ESP. The 500-foot stack height was given previously as part of the base case. Table 8-7 illustrates the results of this analysis. A comparison of predicted emissions with applicable standards in Table 8-7 shows violations of the Class II PSD increments for 3-hour S02 emissions with both a 300- and a 500-foot stack height. The 300-foot case also violates the Class II PSD increment for 24- hour SO2 emissions. The only case which violates no applicable standards is the 1,000-foot stack height. (4) Summary of Air Impacts of Power Plant The frequency of current violations of the NAAQS particulate standards at the Colstrip power plant site will probably increase during the construction phase of the power plant due to blowing dust. Once the plant is in operation, the 3,000 MWe plant at Colstrip (80 percent S02 removal, 99 percent TSP removal, 500-foot stack height) is expected to violate Class II PSD increments for 3-hour S02 emissions. No other applicable standards should be violated by this facility. If the plant were equipped with a 95 percent efficient S02 scrubber or if stack heights were increased to 1,000 feet, all applicable standards would be met. B. Lurgi Impacts Typical and peak pollutant concentrations from the Lurgi plant are summarized in Table 8-8. Peak concentrations from the plant 624 ------- W > H EH W J EH ft w o o Pi ft ft O H 2 Pi EH CO P O CO U Oi EH CO EH CO O i-q H U EH H CO 3. J2 O M EH ^ EH £S H U ^ O u EH EH t-q J O ft ^ , P s, X ^ * J 0 Pi EH 0 U PM O EH 2 P O rtj ft CO EH < P 1 ft CO EH . Pi ffi 1 ** CN CM 0 CO l_3 -o £> CM ro r^ in CO rH CO -P en cy, o o g g 01 ^ i 03 Q j ^^ s-i ^3 co CQ >i 03 C ft i (U -P -P •H 0) rH Q 03 3 -P 03 S-l U -H -H 2 ^ -P S-i O II ft G CO II II O ft Q U < CO 2 2 ft M CO (U 0) -P -P 0) 03 g ""f d U 0 •H -H X! -P £j M o as P_! S-l (U T3 a 0) Q) T3 ^ CO -H C g X CU 03 O O4 S-l -H CO tm3 3 O CO S-l S-l U d rH •H M-l OS S-l g rH -p 3 3 O O II CO -P X! m II II II g \ ft • JlJi Q £/3 OH 3- CO EH K U •H i) 03 CO 1 -P 0) O CO CO CD O -H M-l S-l S-l M-l -P (D O 0) 0) S-l (U rH d XI 0) -P -P 03 0 S-l C C (U -H p \| X! g CU • O QJ CO C •H -P 03 O X! 0) -H 5 X S-l -P U U 03 fi 03 C M -H -P -H -P CO C CO rH CD 0) 0) rH O co x: 03 c 03 -P g O O CO O -p O 03 03 ft 5 X! CO -P -P CO EH 0) 0) -P U S-l x: u d CD -P 03 'O IS M-l O O S-l S-l rH O CD DJ M-l X! >i -P XI rH CO U -P G O -H x! 0 -P xl tr> •H 15 -H -P 0) rH 03 rH ^ CO S-l X) M-l -P 03 M-l o3 G -P O O X! T3 C C -H (D 03 O S^ G U -P S-l ^ 1 1 ^ k> ft 03 -P O CO 03 EH 0) CO -P S-l -H CO • 03 Pi S-l (D UJ rrjj (U ^ 1 CD X! O ^ CO X! g (N 3 d CO S-l G CO U CU •H -H CO XI -P CO S-l CM 0) O O M-l U -P CO O G 03 (D -P CD CO S-l -H Xl CO CD Ci-P CD M-l -H G M-l U G CD •H CD CD > P M XI -H td a £ -P 625 ------- I oo W r3 CQ < EH CO g tn — i — 2 O H EH g EH 2 W U 2 O U EH 2 EH ID O g ^ g H X! CO <4H P W CO EH EH U EC H O (J H W W CO EC CN 00 O • • • 00 F~ VD O O O P» i — I i — i i — I vo in o ro CN rH CN rH ^ • • vo r- CN in i m rH CTl 00 VO ^D \ t—\ i rd P ^ >H ^3 CO >H rd C O-i M T3 rd rd C -P H g O CO M -H U W in CD QJ CO O DJ CO -P CO r£ — — ' rd rd a- CD CD en rd -H a x CD o a n -H co CT1 ^3 3 O t I tl O 3 -H iH 4H rd g 3 rH 4J 030 II £! co -P CO o CO ffi CO EH 626 ------- oo I oo W Q (X f£ Q Z cH ra Z O (H :ONCENTRA1 Q CO CM Z W H CQ 2 £ •£ f£ U CM h-i H CO CO CJ H CO CO s CJ < ^ £H Z o s i Q Z o CJ u CO s § H K CM CM S H CO i-3 O CJ E-i S IX TYPICAL Q Z O a; o u 03 1- Si = 5 j ° 11 u < CT> r- o »— i CN r— 1 rO CN C~» rH un in o oj in iTi i~\ CN m o m in o o r- o CN «-H o o (N rH (— 1 f— 1 o o o o o i^D LT) O O ^D M CO cH fH •» rH m o o m o o P" \£> CO V^ O ^ CN rO iH rH rH ^T CN i£> 22 o ^ cn o o i— i CN ^O CN 2 Z O ^ ^J" O 1^ T in P^ «T rH Z Z Z • • Z on ro in v£) o iH iH 0) id M IH HrHP rHPr-l rH iH 3cdO I8O3 id 3 OPJS PJSO 3 O •H C 1 C 1 JS C JS 4-1 C T C T 1 0 C 1 Id O O CJ CM CO Z X 0) •o • H X o •rH T! C 01 tT> 0 IH 4J • H C II CXI o z c 0 •r-1 4-1 cB IH 0 • rH ^ 0) 4-1 0) Q 4J C IB 0 UH •H fS Di •H CO UH O C O •H 4J C 4) rV IH p II Q cn CM in C 0 ja IH iB O O M •O r; II CJ 33 tn c o 4J •H r-J C 0 O •o 2 0 IH cn X o IB ja IH 0) > o D tn cd JS 0 o c II z a) •a • H ^ O •H M 3 UH rH 3 tn II CM 0 cn i plant. Annual average d levels. Cn fS M 3 3 O CT' rH X cd o u cd •H ja 4-1 01 £ JS rH 4-1 01 0 4J a i >i4-> JS IH o 0) JS & tn UH E 0 O n in MH ai 4J in IB c 6 O -rt •H 4J 4-i in IB 0) M 4J 4-> C in 01 a) o ja c 0 a) 0 JS rH 01 73 > 0) 0) ^l rH 01 1 V §ra c 0 0 IH O cn 0) TJ .H 0) IB 4J o in •H rH T3 0) ai > IH 0) OjrH ai TI cd 3 o 01 iH tn DI 01 X JS 0 FH CO ro J^ esigned to protect public •o tn T3 rH IB •a c cd 4-1 K! £x, 4J .rH rH IB P CT IH •H IB -P C ai • H "I cd iH IB IH ai ai UH o 4J M ai UH 0) IH s £>, r_j CB -o C 0 o 0) in £ •a c IB s >• CC e •H ,_( CM = J2 than the annual average are e increments of pollutions These data are from ^i CD 4J O cn ai E -iH 4J cn c -H Cn IB rH ai IB ^1 o UH in IB T3 C IB 4J in rH rH f£ t >1 rH 0) •H 4J U ai tn 0) IH ai IH IB UH rH cu -o < c IB f 4J 1— 1 IB o JS H n id 3 O rH rH CO 0) jS 4J 0) M cd ra T3 IH id "O C IB 4-1 tn D CO CM i r-\| IB 01 IH 0) 01 0 C 0 c id 4J a) IH O E T3 ai T3 ai 01 o X 41 01 O 4-1 4-1 o C in V VH CB a H IB C O •H 4J CB C tn IB r* O 3 in « rH .rH cd C id 01 rH O >, rH 0) > •H 4J id rH O) UH O in IB 01 IH IB O 4J T) 01 rrj •O cd ai ^ c IB O r\| O •r- JS 3 Systems Report. Washing- 4J C a> a o H 01 0) Q 41 0 IH 3 O 10 01 CX X CT> IH 0) C W ,, -P in CU S 0) .c 4J f~ 0 IH fa >l CT ^4 01 c » CN In 4> 4-1 DH CB JS CJ h. Cn C • H E O 0 (-; 4-1 rH O UH fc X O c 01 Cn <; C o • H 4J O ai +J 0 rH CM H cd 4-1 C a) E c o • V-t rH cd 4J 41 • H ^ C W .. « * • CO rJ • rj C •H > .. IH • H CJ 0 * a o 4-> - •r* !S JS 0 S -P o z o 4-1 T3 0) IH 01 c 0 o 0) rH cd in ai o rH P 0 tn 4-1 fi (8 rH OH O IH UH C a) Cn 0 VH 4-1 • H C UH O tn ai •o •rH X 0 H rH cd 4J id i-; 4-1 rrj 0) e P in tn cd in •H 4J H •J E IB cy* i \o 4J CO •o 01 P in (0 W E in -,H •o ^1 CO T3 C (B 4J in CJ IH 3 0 JS I ro 01 JS EH •o 627 ------- will not violate any federal or Montana ambient air standards, nor will they exceed Class II PSD increments. However, the plant ex- ceeds Class I increments for the 3-hour SOa averaging time. This PSD violation would require a buffer zone of 7.8 miles between this plant and any Class I area boundary in order to comply with current EPA regulations. C. Synthane Impacts Typical and peak concentrations from the Synthane gasification plant are summarized in Table 8-9. These data show that no ambient standards will be violated and no Class II PSD increments will be exceeded. However, the Synthane plant will violate Class I incre- ments for 24-hour and 3-hour SC-2. These emission levels would re- quire a buffer zone of 7.1 miles. The plant-mine combination may reduce visibility over short time periods in a worst-case situa- tion (expected to occur infrequently) to between 2 and 11 miles, depending on the amount of SC>2 converted to particulates in the atmosphere.l D. Synthoil Impacts Table 8-10 lists typical concentrations from the Synthoil liquefaction plant and peak concentrations from the plant. The Synthoil plant will exceed only the 3-hour HC standard, but will do so by a factor of more than 100. It will not exceed any Class II PSD increments. However, it will violate the Class I incre- ments for annual and 24-hour S02. These potential Class I viola- tions would require a buffer zone of 13.4 miles. E. Scenario Impacts (1) To 1980 Construction of the hypothetical power plant will begin in the 1975-1980 period, but the plant will not become operational until after 1980. The population of Colstrip should increase from the 1975 level of 3,000 to 4,080 by I960.2 This increase will con- tribute to increases in pollution concentrations due solely to ur- ban sources. Pollution from energy-related population increases will be mainly due to additional automobile traffic. Concentrations 1 Short-term visibility impacts were investigated using a "box- type" dispersion model. This particular model assumes that all emissions occurring during a specified time interval are uniformly mixed and confined in a box that is capped by a lid or stable layer aloft. A lid of 500 meters has been used through the analyses. SO2 to sulfate conversion rates of ten percent and one percent were modeled. 2Refer to Section 8.4.3. 628 ------- CT> I oo W 1 * CO Q a < Q rt! EH CD CO CO s M EH < K EH Z U U Z O U D CO (X EH Z H H £9 2 < X < a & rH M to CO < ij U H to CO < J U § < EH Z s >H a < a z o U U CO X K <£ £ H « ft ft M EH CO 1 8 U H Z S ft >-q < U M ft >H EH Q Z £3 0 (^ U X CJ m w s EH S z H <3* EH U S Z J H 3 u 0 S ft * * W > < o> r~ o rH oj iH rO CN C^ rH in uo o CN in in i-H CN in o ro in o o r- O CN rH O VO CN rH rH i-H 00 O 0 0 vc m o o vo rH rO rH rH h. rH in o o in o o r~ vo oo vo o V£P IN rO rH rH rH ro r- r T Z o o ro CN o o rH rH ID CN • . Z O rH CN •» CN o rH i-H 01 4-1 to M H rH rH S rH3^ rH \|H 3tOO ICO3 •a •H X CO o c •H O -a .a M r4 10 3 O UH 0 i-H M 3 -a 10 >! £ II II (V O U CO S3 c o •rt 4J to M 10 o c •H O tH -H 0) 4J •P -rl 01 T3 D C o •P 0 c to >a CJ C •H 3 UH 0 •rl ^1 c o> 0. J^ •rt 0) O CO TJ 10 •H ja ^ X O O M •rt 0) c -o > O 0 •H C •P 0) 01 C Cn Cn 0) O C > IH ro O) -p s: IH -r\| O ft C o II II C D ~ II en o ft Z Z nt. Annual average to to rH i-H a, o> > 01 01 C rH 10 s -o •P C C 3 >i O CO Lt en rH .* 10 U U 10 •rt J3 4J 0) E £ U •P O) O 4J a i >1-P £ H o 0) £ £ w 4-> «H e o o IH in UH 01 4J in to §.s •rl -P •P CO (0 0) rl •P 4-> C in 0> Oi o ja c 0 0> 0 £ 4-> rH 0) T) > 0) 01 rl rH 0) 1 T3 -a -H §in c 0 0 IH U C" 01 •O IH 0) to 4J o in •H rH TJ OI 01 > M OI O,rH 01 T3 M C to 3 o 0) M U) Cn 01 ! £ O EH (0 « J3 to protect public annual average are ents of pollutants data are from Report. Washing- oi E 01 in 13 jr. o) to E OJ 4J M 0) 0) c o jr. 4J Cn C C EH 01 •rt 10 -H >1 in .c co 0> -P 01 • "O rH M 4J M .Q , c K 0) 10 kj OI TJ £ 3 d 1 M -P o a, Q< 10 0 rH n T) rH rH rH c in to to o) 10 01 C > 4J E 01 0 0) co -H jr, -rt Q •P 4J 4J >i 10 0) •P Cn 0) C O •H C M M rH -H 10 in 3 to & ro 0 3 to in m tr >H 73 £ oi 01 >H 0 « IH > to 3 •H ro T3 in >, to c en rj 10 w h •P 0 -P M O C MH 10 .H C Oi as n •H in Q -3 •? w c E IH C- 10 •• fO trj 01 4-1 13 rH 10 rH C . O 01 to to M 2 IH 4J (0 >, OJ Bl 0) rH 0) "O >i 01 £ 0> rH > 4J >M rH ^ .H < 01 4-1 E 0 Cu to O •P rH IH • Oi 01 tn M >1 0 rl 0)rH C >, tH 01 O MH Cn 0) > O M >H -rt C 01 •P to in c t O £ (0 K) • CN IH 0) 4-1 a to JS r_j •k Cn c 'H £ 0 o £ 4J rl O MH ^ >i O 5 en < ^ 0 H •p o 0) 4-> o H a< H tfl 4J ~j 1) >i 1> -P 01 C Ma M o 18 U! I) <0 • tH T3 01 M ,-U C IH O O <« o e 4J 0 - 4J 0) Oi ^3 t3 0)1 ,rt > C U 10 Li OI 01 » E fCJ t3 r-J h . "« CD -a -to •a rH, a) ro j . C 0) 0 o « ? X O) C W ja -rl s -0 > •• >i C 41 C U • >H fo ja to H u 10 U • E £ 0 >Q • H -P 4-> JT, (1) M rH fj 4J ^ &4 tO 4-1 -H -rt C = 0) o jr. £ o XI £ C 3 2 4J • IM O z o 4J •a 0) 4J M 0) > c o U 0) rl re) to 0> O M 3 O ia 4J c to i-H a o M U-l C 0) Cn o rl 4-1 •rl C <4H O 10 0) T3 • rt X o rH rH 10 •p 10 •C 4J Tf \| in in to IK •H •P M U e 10 a. vo 4-1 <0 •o 01 M 3 in to g in •H TJ !-( 10 •a c to 4J in O S3 )H 3 0 JS 1 ro 0) jr, H •a 629 ------- H tf EH o u o i 00 W W C CH r^J Q Z EH TIONS3 g EH Z U 0 z 0 u o tn EH z M m rij _< rt H H W < u H to in S u rt z itf EH Z o s K ^ Q Z o u w tn S sj M K IX H EH in c u PLANT j rt u tH p^ ^H EH Q D Q O CJ ca u s S3 gs ^ s\| > f^ O rH IN rH rO IN CA rH in in o CN in in rH CN in o ro in o o P- O CN rH O VO IN iH rH — t o o o o o \£t m o o v£> iH rO rH rH h. rH in o o in o o 1 — v£ CO 145 O VO CN rO rH rH \D rH ct O in ro • • • r • • O O rH rO O CJ> o cri c\ r^- CN ^ o rH 0> 0 CN r- rH CN • ro r^ ro oo CM CN ^t in us o iH rH in 0) 4-1 fl IH M rHrH3 rH3rl rH IH 3fflO fl03 ffl 3 O3XI 3£O 3 O •rt C 1 C 1 X! C X! 4-1 C T C T 1 0 C 1 fl O O U a. tn z s tt) •a x o -H 'D C 0) O IH -P •H C II (N O z c 0 •H 4-1 fl IH o «H I-l tt) 4-1 0) Q -P C fl u 14-1 •H C en •H Ml ^ o c o •H 4-1 £ D tt) 6 II o Ml Cu in c o r; ,_( fl o 0 T3 X! II U a 0) T3 •H X o • l-t "0 iH 3 14H rH 3 in ll (M O tn 0) Cn fl IH tt) ^ CO rH fl 3 C C i XI o •H T3 tt) IH a tt) IH fl 0) in tt) XI EH in c o •r-l -P 10 14 4-> C tt) 0 c 0 ^j • in rH 0) > tt) rH T3 C 3 O tn *** u fl £t E D 4-) 1 4-1 IH O in >4H 0 in CD 4-1 fl e. -H •p in tt) -P in tt) XI 0) X] 4J 13 0) 4) • H in c O 0 tt) IH fl in rH Q) D r-l •a c 3 0 en ^ 0 -Q • 4-1 c CO rH a Q) x; 4-1 o 4-1 0) rH X! (0 4J 3 JQ •H )-l 4J -4J <0 r>1 rH CD Cn IS rH tt) IH fl a •H iH 4-1 in rH O o SH 0) 0 XI 4-1 rH fl tt) x; o • H rH fl ;3 a 4J U tt) 4-> 0 a o 4-1 TI 0) C cr> • H in CD T3 in •o t-l ffl •o c fl 4J in ^ 4-1 • H rH ro 3 cr in •H fl 4J C 0 •H i 10 rH 10 1-1 tt) •D tt) 14H O •P ^1 tt) MH tt) IH E ^ IH fl •O C O 0 tt) in •U C fl ; >1 iH ffl E In cx, .c •O tt) •O tt) T3 AQ ro o o •P X! •P C O fl c o tt) XI ri O fl -H XI 0) 3 en fl in IH 4-1 tt) C > fl CO 4-1 3 rH rH fl rH 3 O C Cu C fl 14H 0 0) x: m 4J 4-1 C C tt) fl E XI 0) 4-1 M O rt C CD -H XI 4-1 0) 0 rH XI in ffl CD 3 e o •H rH •P rH ffl Cn C CD •rt XI Cn 4-1 fl IH Q) CD In > fl fl in rl T3 0 rl 14H fl rrj in c iO ffl IH 4J fl in t3 C Q rt en in rH . rH >H < ra 0) ( >, ffl rH tt) tt) > O •rt C 4-1 O O a ro in xl CD 4-1 IH tt) 0) O IH E rt u-t n3 rH tt) tt) TJ 3 tt) tt> iQ U C X ffl CD * rH ffl -P CD h . ,_3 C •H I-l H «. tt) •H XI s E 0 14H 1) ffl ra -P fl T) tt) in tt) XI * in 4-1 in tt) 0 rH ffl C 0 •rt 4-1 ro c in ro X! o 3 10 h. IH • H fl C fl tt) rH O ^ rH tt) •H 4-1 fl rH (D )H UH 0 U) fl D M fl O -P rH fl 4J C 0) E C O l-< >r1 £> C .. Ml . £3 . . U O k c o 4J en c -H XI U) ffl ^ • 4J n o a K in E tt) 4J in en •P C CD a 0 rH Cn IH tt) U •« 4J in S CD r 4J E O ^4 El4 >. Cn )H 0) c w . CN i-l tt) 4-1 a X\| o k Cn C •H E O O XI 4-1 ^ O MH ^ O C 0) CP c 0 •H 4-1 0 tt) 4-1 o I-l a. • CM O z o •a D .p VH tt) ^> C O U tt) IH ffl in 0) 0 ^t 3 O tn 4-1 e fl rH G E O IH MH C tt) en O rl 4-1 • r-l C 14-1 0 in 0) •a -rt X o rH rH CCS •P CO X! 4-1 •a tt) rj t/1 in 10 in •H 4J IH 0 E ffl o°> 1 4-1 ffl •c tt) IH 3 in ffl 0) E in •H •a ,H ffl TJ C ffl 4-1 in U a ,H 3 O XI 1 ro CD XI EH •o 630 ------- have been estimated from available data on average emission per person in several western cities. Table 8-11 lists predicted con- centrations of the five criteria pollutants measured in the center of town and at a point 3 miles from the center of town. This in- formation shows that the only ambient standard violated in Colstrip due to urban sources is that for HC.1 (2) To 1990 The power plant will become operational in 1985, and a Lurgi gasification plant will become operational in 1989. Interactions of the pollutants from the plants are minimal because they have been (hypothetically) sited 6 miles apart. If the wind blows di- rectly from one plant to the other, plumes will interact. However, the resulting concentrations would be less than those produced by either plant and mine combination when the wind blows from the plant to the mine (peak plant/mine concentration). The predicted maximum pollutant concentration resulting from interactions of the power plant and Lurgi facilities at a 6-mile separation distance just meet the Class II PSD increment for 24-hour SOa emissions; but the Class II PSD increment for 3-hour S02 is violated. Had the plants been sited closer together, the probability of the in- teractions would increase. When the power plant and Lurgi facility are both operating, visibility is expected to decrease from the current average of 60 miles in the region near Miles City, Montana to 58 miles. In a worst-case situation, expected to occur infrequently, short-term visibilities could be reduced to between 3 and 9 miles depending on the amount of SOa converted to particulates in the atmosphere. Colstrip1s projected population increase to 5,250 will cause some increases in urban pollutants (Table 8-11). As in the 1980 case, the HC standard will be the only one violated. All other pollutant concentrations remain well within federal and state standards. (3) To 2000 Two new facilities, a Synthoil liquefaction plant and a Syn- thane gasification plant, will become operational between 1990 and 2000. Interactions between the new Synthoil and Synthane plants and the Lurgi and electrical generation plants will increase annual peak concentrations. Interaction of the Synthane and Synthoil plants with the power plant will violate Class II PSD increments for 24-hour and 3-hour S02 emissions. When all four of these coal conversion facilities come on- line in the Colstrip region, visibility is expected to decrease 1EC standards are violated regularly in most urban areas. 631 ------- I CO ~~in Q K < 1 LTO ro in o o o o 1 r~ O OJrH O U3 OO IN i-H rH rH O O O O rH T o o o o o o o IX) ID O O O O O rH PO rH rH O O .. h h rH O O rH T in O OLD O O OO r~~ vo co {& o ^o o o o rH rH 01 0) 4J ro >H SH rHrH3 rH3V^ rH iH iHr 3(OO IOO3 10 3 33 O3.C 3£0 3 0 OO •HSI ci£ c j: .C.C 4-1 C T C •» I U C I II risers iNi^r-i") ,,_j c II (N o 2 QJ rrj •H 0 •H rrj lH MH rH 3 II (N O en Q) >H • fd c ^ 01 O C 4-1 O •r-t UH 4J O to )H r( 4-1 0) C 4-1 0) C O 0) c o c U 0) T3 4-1 C 3 g O O M &H Cn WH ^ O Ul tO Pi Q) rH rH 1 tO rrj ^_j C 3 3 Pi O = tr T3 LT) O 1 4J CO O •H 0) T3 ^ GJ & M 1C 0) E >H 0 10 !H 0) 01 C O 0) r; ^ H ro m 4-J •H rH 3 a 0 x; 4J -U U 0) 4J O IH a o 4-1 'C 0) c -H 01 0) -a 01 tJ M 10 -a c ro 4-1 y) ?i 4J •H M C3 d cr i_i -H rfl 4J C GJ -H rO E ro rH to tH U •D 0) • r-* 0) O- >H > tO -H 4- = O >i 01 M Ci to 01 tJ U C M O O - 0) O 01 tH = to m T3 rH C 0) ro 3 - T3 >^ C ^ ro fl E s: •H 4-> M rH pj fO = GJ -c X . CM 0 o 4-) •o 0) 4J 0 c o o 01 IJ to Ul 0) 0 ^1 3 O 01 c tO n ^H 3 E o }H UH c 0) CP 0 M -U •r-l c UH o 01 0 rrj •H x 0 UH o 4J c 0) o ^H 0) a o ID 4J ro r; 4-1 T3 Ol E 3 01 Ul ro 01 • H 4-1 M CJ • E t tO a-, 1 d -U ro Tl Ol ^ 3 Ul to 0) g 01 • r-t •a M ro T~J C 10 4J 01 U «M M 3 O r^ 1 ro 0) j" EH T3 632 ------- from the current average of 60 miles to 56 miles by the year 2000. In a worst-case situation, expected to occur infrequently, short- term visibilities could be reduced to between 3 and 9 miles. Colstrip's population will increase to 7,910 by the year 2000, and some increase in pollution concentrations will be associated with this growth (Table 8-11). Although the ambient standard for 3-hour HC is exceeded, no other ambient standards are approached. F. Other Air Impacts Nine additional categories of potential air impacts have re- ceived preliminary attention; that is, an attempt has been made to identify sources of pollutants and how energy development may ef- fect levels of these pollutants during the next 25 years. These include sulfates, oxidants, fine particulates, long-range visibil- ity, plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, cooling tower fogging and icing, fugitive dust, and trace element emissions. Although there are likely to be local impacts as a consequence of these pollutants, both the available data and knowledge about im- pact mechanisms are insufficient to allow quantitative, site- specific analyses. Thus, these are discussed in a more general, qualitative manner in Chapter 10. 8.2.4 Summary of Air Impacts Four new facilities (a power plant, Lurgi and Synthane gas- ification plants, and a Synthoil liquefaction plant) are projected for the Colstrip area. To just meet NSPS, the 3,000 MWe power plant would require 99 percent particulate, 20 percent S02, and 36 percent NOX removal. However, at this level of control, am- bient air standards would be violated. With 80 percent S02 and 99 percent particulate removal, no federal or Montana ambient air standards will be violated, but the Class II PSD increment for 3-hour SO2 will be exceeded. In order to meet this Class II incre- ment, the power plant would have to be equipped with a scrubber which removed 95 percent of the S02 or with 1,000-foot (rather than 500-foot) stacks. Peak concentrations from the power plant will exceed Class I increments except that for annual particulates. Typical concen- trations will violate the 24-hour and 3-hour SC-2 increments. These PSD violations would require a buffer zone of 75 miles. Typical and peak pollutant concentrations from the Lurgi and Synthane gasification plants will not violate any federal or Montana ambient air standards, nor will they exceed any Class II PSD increments. However, both plants will exceed Class I incre- ments; buffer zones of 7.8 miles for the Lurgi plant and 7.1 for the Synthane plant would be required. 633 ------- The only federal or Montana ambient air standard that the Synthoil plant violates is the. 3-hour HC standard, but it does so by a factor of more than 100. No Class II PSD increments will be exceeded. However, the Class I increments for 24-hour S02 , 3-hour S02 , and annual S02 will be exceeded. These .PSD violations would require a buffer zone of 13.4 miles. If all four facilities are constructed according to the hy- pothesized schedule, population increases, in Colstrip will add to existing pollutant levels. Violations of HC standards will be exacerbated by concentrations due solely to urban sources. 8.3 WATER IMPACTS 8.3.1 Introduction Energy resource development facilities in the Colstrip sce- nario are sited in the Yellowstone River Basin, a subbasin of the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB) . Although several large tribu- taries could be used (see Figure 8-3) , the major water source for this development is the Yellowstone River. Annual precipitation in the area is about 14 inches, 3-4 inches of which fall as snow.1 Thus , the area receives adequate precipitation to sustain local water demands by irrigation, municipal, and industrial users. 8.3.2 Existing Conditions A. Groundwater The largest aquifer systems in the Colstrip area are the Mad- ison aquifer, aquifer systems in the coal and sandstone beds of the Tongue River Member of the Fort Union Formation, and alluvial aqui- fers. Although the Madison aquifer is quite deep in the Colstrip area (about 7,500 feet) ,2 it is considered here as a potential water source because of its high pressure (water will rise in a well to within a few hundred feet of the ground surface) . The closest re- charge area of the Madison is along the Bighorn Mountains several miles southwest of Colstrip. Discharge is primarily by upward leakage into overlying strata. Although large quantities of water are available from the Madison aquifer in the southeastern Montana region, its produc- tivity in the Colstrip area has not been fully evaluated. A test well drilled through this aquifer near Colstrip indicates well moisture content of one inch of rain is equal to approx- imately 15 inches of snow. 2Swenson, Frank A. Possible Development of Water From Madison Group and Associated Rock in Powder River Basin, Montana-Wyoming. Denver , Colo . : Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974. 634 ------- Tongue River /. . , n . „ Reservoir ./Moorhead Decker* Jl 7 Mont FIGURE 8-3: IMPORTANT HYDROLOGIC FEATURES OF THE COLSTRIP SCENARIO AREA 635 ------- productivity may be between 200 and 300 gpm.1 The TDS content of the aquifer in the scenario area is about 2,000 milligrams per li- ter (mg/£). Although deep wells into the Madison aquifer could provide a significant fraction of the water required by energy fa- cilities in the Colstrip area, surface water and shallow ground- water sources can possibly be developed at less expense. Aquifers in the Tongue River Member are in sandstone and coal beds that are deposited in alternate layers with shales. The main coal bed aquifer is the Rosebud coal seam, which is the primary source of coal at Colstrip. The water table depth varies but is usually less than 50 feet. Yields of individual wells are usually less than 100 gpm. Recharge is from rainfall and surface streams. Discharge is to seeps and springs on hillsides and as baseflow to the larger streams. Water quality in the Tongue River aquifer system is highly variable, differing with each sandstone body and coal seam. The median TDS content of 49 water samples from the Tongue River Mem- ber was about 900 mg/£,2 and fresh water is generally less, than 1,000 mg/X, (1,000-3,000 mg/S, is considered slightly saline by the United States Geological Survey [USGS] standards).3 The hardness of Tongue River aquifer water decreases with depth.1* At present, this groundwater is used only for domestic purposes and livestock watering. Although the aquifer system of the Tongue River Member could not support the energy facilities of the scenario, it could provide water for associated municipal growth. 1 Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, Energy Planning Division. Draft Environmental Impact Statement on Colstrip Electric Generating Units 3 and 4, 500 Kilovolt Trans- mission Lines and Associated Facilities. Helena, Mont.: Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, 1974, V. 3-A, p. 359. 2Hopkins, William B. Water Resources of the Northern Chey- enne Indian Reservation and Adjacent Area, Southeastern Montana, U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Investigations Atlas HA-468. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973. 3U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. Study and Interpretation of the Chemical Characteristics of Natural Water, Water Supply Paper 1473.Washington,D.C.:Government Printing Office, 1970, p. 219. 4Ibid.. ; and Renick, B. Coleman. Geology and Groundwater Re- sources of Central and Southern Rosebud County, Montana, U.S. Geo- logical Survey Water Supply Paper 600. Washington, D.C.: Govern- ment Printing Office, 1929, p. 40. 636 ------- The alluvial aquifers are along the Yellowstone River and its tributaries, Rosebud Creek and the Tongue River. The alluvium along these rivers is up to 100 feet thick; as much as 60 of that 100 feet are saturated.: Wells may yield up to 700 gpm for short periods. Most recharge to and discharge from these aquifers is by interflow with the associated streams, with additional water lost to vegetation and wells. Water quality in the alluvial aquifers depends on the quality of the river water and the groundwater re- ceived from the bedrock formation. The median TDS content of 16 samples taken from alluvial aquifers was about 1,100 mg/£.2 Pres- ent uses of water from alluvial aquifers are limited to supplying domestic and livestock needs.. Alluvial aquifers such as those along the Tongue River could provide part of the water for munici- pal growth, but could not support energy facilities. B. Surface Water The Colstrip scenario lies within the Yellowstone River Sub- basin of the UMRB. The Yellowstone and Missouri Rivers contribute comparable flows at their confluence on the Montana-North Dakota border. The main tributaries of the Yellowstone flowing through the Fort Union coal region are the Powder, Tongue, and Bighorn Rivers (see Figure 8-3). Flows for these rivers are shown in Table 8-12. The largest reservoir in this part of the Yellowstone Basin is Bighorn Lake, which is located on the Bighorn River about 75 miles southwest of Colstrip and has a total storage of 1.3 mil- lion acre-feet (acre-ft). The only other storage facility of sig- nificance is the 74,000 acre-ft Tongue River Reservoir about 50 miles south of Colstrip.3 Flows in lower elevation tributaries to the Yellowstone River peak between March and early May. The larger rivers, which depend on the higher-elevation snowpack for their spring runoff flows, peak between mid-June and mid-July. Many of the small streams have significant discharges from midwinter to early spring as a result of snowmelt caused by chinook winds or by local thunder- storms in the summer. The soils in the area have relatively low permeability, resulting in low infiltration rates. Runoff averages 0.2-0.5 inch per year. Hopkins, William B. Water Resources of the Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation and Adjacent Area, Southeastern Montana,U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Investigations Atlas HA-468.Wash- ington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973. 2Ibid. 3Northern Great Plains Resources Program. Water Work Group Report. Billings, Mont.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, 1974. 637 ------- CO -P PS C H ft PS O rH W CD 12 > O CD EH T3 £ CO O CD J O r3 SH W 3 >i O CO Q CD ^^ Lj SH H CD PS -P D to O £ co com H o g H PS CD W > fH CD ffi PS CD OX! Cu -P rf! 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O rH O U SH CD t> C CD Q • C •H CO (0 PQ SH CD !> •H PS CD £ O -P CO 638 ------- The Yellowstone River is free-flowing to its confluence with the Bighorn River. Because the flows in the Bighorn are about the same as those of the Yellowstone, and because the Bighorn River is regulated by Bighorn Lake, the flows in the Yellowstone near For- syth (where the energy facilities will draw water) are regulated for most of the year (see Figure 8-3). Water supply and use in Montana is shown in Table 8-13. About 70 percent of total water use is for irrigation. The majority of this water is supplied through state and federal projects, but a portion has been developed privately. Groundwater also is used for irrigation but in negligible amounts compared to surface-water usage. With the exception of Glendive, municipalities downstream of Miles City use groundwater as a public supply; towns upstream from Miles City use surface water.1 The water quality of the Yellowstone Basin rivers is generally good, with the possible exception of the Powder River. Both the Tongue and Bighorn are considered of national importance as sport fishing areas. The Powder River characteristically has high TDS concentrations (3,000-10,000 mg/£), which is considered moderately saline by USGS standards. Combined with its tendency to dry up in some stretches in late summer, these TDS levels reduce the Powder River's potential for use as boiler make-up or drinking water. The major source of pollution in all three rivers is agricultural. The representative values of water quality parameters given in Table 8-14 can help individuals evaluate water quality acceptabil- ity for specific uses. Although not reported in this table, iron and manganese concentrations in Armells Creek at Colstrip commonly exceed EPA's Proposed National Secondary Drinking Water Regulations.2 8.3.3 Factors Producing Impacts The water requirements of and effluents from energy facilities cause water impacts. These requirements and effluents are identi- fied in this section for each type of energy facility. Associated population increases also increase municipal water demand and sew- age effluent; these are presented in Section 8.3.4 for the scenario which includes all facilities constructed according to the scenario schedule. Montana, Department of Natural Resources•and Conservation, Energy Planning Division. Draft Environmental Impact Statement on Colstrip Electric Generating Units 3 and 4, 5-QQ Kilovolt Trans- mission Lines and Associated Facilities.Helena,Mont.:Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, 1974. 2U.S., Environmental Protection Agency. "National Secondary Drinking Water Regulations," Proposed Regulations. 42 Fed. Reg. 17,143-47 (March 31, 1977). 639 ------- TABLE 8-13: ESTIMATED 1975 SURFACE-WATER SITUATION FOR SELECTED AREAS IN MONT AN A a (1,000 acre-feet) SUPPLY OR USE Average Annual Water Supply, Modified Inflow to Region Undepleted Water Yield Estimated 1975 Imports Total Water Supply Estimated 1975 Water Usec Irrigation M & I Including Rural Minerals Thermal Electric Otherd Reservoir Evaporation Total Depletions Estimated Future Water Supply Modified 1975 Water Supply6 Estimated Legal or Instream Commitments Net Water Supply YELLOWSTONE RIVER 6,305 4,239 0 10,544 776 43 10 1 49 234 1,113 9 ,431 0 9,431 UPPER MISSOURI RIVER 847 8,398 140 9,385 1,480 56 0 0 155 369 2,060 7,325 0 7,325 M & I = municipal and industrial U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. West- wide Study Report on Critical Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western States. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975. Inflow reflects the effects of depletions upstream of state lines. Includes surface water, surface-related groundwater, and mined groundwater. No depletions are attributed to thermal electric, recreation, and consumptive conveyance losses. eModified 1975 supply is determined by subtracting estimated total water use from total supply. Available for future instream uses such as for fish, wildlife, recreation, power, or navigation or for consumtive use. Physical or economic constraints could preclude full development. 640 ------- I 00 W < a g 0* H a 5 te GC oc -a cc ."t O C O O CC i m >n —i o i CN CN IT) Lt I I I I 1 I I 3" CN in in c^i o r~- i fN rH ft . CO rH • O rH -•.'" K 3 u S K ^ U < r.i _c s a uC ^ "-1 sJ O LC "^* d o E-1 g CC rr 2 g £ o 9 c ^ M - cc f-.r; ^ K li] Ez B8 C- E 2 """ O H In to 3 K r, o M H >H < 000 ft ft a~i o — i m _4 rH ^p rH CO 1 1 1 1 1 CO X ^f T CTi rH rH • CO r— 'O ft r~- ot o co VD in ft 111 i r— 1 i£> f^~ CO CO r— 1 CN r— r-- rH O CO O 1 1 1 1 1 co cr> f in CN ^J. ,H rH • iH rH CN CT\ (N rH CM m ft CN IH rH rH r— 1 rsj III 1 LO tr co o rH U- U-j •, co m •qr en rH • o r-- r>] co ^T f\j ! 1 1 1 1 u- ^r p-1 — i ^ rH o o o O ^C f— 1 O ^ ^T ^D i—t in o rH rH O CN >H CO i-H t 1 1 1 1 1 1 O rH O O CO V£) O TJ- . o o r- -ft ft , ,- 1 r- o o k£> rt o ^ "f ft • LO OC • LTi • ftcN<— 4coincoftft t I I I I I I I ft O OJZ JI JI U? CN in m co o •q- o • f"1"1 rH rH P~ x: £ in "tf rr fN r— i p- in CO . . in CO * rH . i I 1 I t ' i I rH O rH <^O^ _C ^T_C v£> • • m o m CN P- •H o f-j ^r • rH P* O ^cTo CO CN o r~ o (N in £ •^ ft . ». fc . o P- ft CO ty rH CO rH 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 f> 'sD CN O-C CO ^i CO • r-1 O • ^£> CN o in ^ • o cou-i oo o o in o <£* 'sDCN OO O • Csji — lO^ftCOftft 1 1 t 1 1 1 I 1 ^" O VfiW-i y-i t— 1 ^T rH ^J- fN O rH ? ^ • • « in co • CN ft O rH P ~ rH CO p- ft • o ft rH O rH rH • 1 1 CN rH O • rH Ot -C ft o m (N I i I in ^" i — CN - CO CO 0£ O "31 ^" • «• CN fN rH 1 1 fN fN m CO O • OJ ft CN C* rH rH CTN 1 1 1 O'J Ct r-. •^ UD U • SOflJ TJ I 0 10 u • H E >i 0) -u x; •* o •3 O a O aJ tj -H JJ O Ul O r-H in 4J 10 0) U II in a (0 v H U u 10 IK to 13 (11 QljJ 18 • U C O O in H in in £ • H > 13 C 0) —I C 10 •H C a. o -H x in en IQ u c 10 c t-i o -H 4-) 4-1 ^H 10 O > > tj O o U o 10 -H Z J-1 13 JJ a, o a> D 13 a,1 cj C Hig O "I z o 641 ------- A. Water Requirements of Energy Facilities The water requirements of energy facilities hypothesized for the Colstrip area are shown in Table 8-15. Two sets of data are presented. The Energy Resource Development System (ERDS) data are based on secondary sources (including impact statements, Federal Power Commission docket filings, and recently published data accu- mulations1) and can be considered typical consumptions. The Water Purification Associates data are from a study on minimum water-use requirements for the Colstrip area and take into account opportuni- ties to recycle water on site as well as the moisture content of the coal being used and local meteorological data.2 As indicated in Table 8-15, the power plant requires more water (26,659 acre- feet per year [acre-ft/yr] assuming high wet cooling) then the other coal conversion facilities. The Synthoil liquefaction facil- ity will require more than 10,000 acre-ft/yr, the Lurgi gasifica- tion facility will require more than 6,250 acre-ft/yr, and the Synthane gasification facility will require more than 7,800 acre- ft/yr (all cases assuming high wet cooling). If intermediate wet cooling (a combination of wet and dry cooling) is used, water re- quirements for energy facilities could be reduced from 73 percent (power plant) to 16 percent (Synthoil). If intermediate wet cool- ing is used for all facilities, the Synthoil plant will require the most water, 8,481 acre-ft/yr. From an economic standpoint, availability and cost of water often determine which cooling tech- nology would be the most profitable to use. For synthetic fuel facilities, intermediate wet cooling technology would save money if water costs more than $1.50 per thousand gallons. High wet cooling would be the economic choice for power plants if water costs less than $3.65 to $5.90 per thousand gallons. Minimum wet cooling (i.e., maximum dry cooling), not considered for the power plant, would result in economic savings at the synthetic fuel fa- cilities if water costs more than $2.00 per thousand gallons. Min- imum wet cooling would save an additional 9 (Synthoil and Synthane) to 10 percent (Lurgi) more water than intermediate wet cooling. If water, costs only $0.25 per thousand gallons and intermediate :The ERDS is based on data drawn from University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program. Energy Alternatives; A Compar- ative Analysis. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975; and Radian Corporation. A Western Regional Energy Develop- ment Study, Final Report, 3 vols. and Executive Summary. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1975. These data are published in White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. 2Gold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. 642 ------- LD rH I OO ffl T: u C/J S 5rJ S U O CO ? 3, i-» -j O LJ E"2 o t-t CX --^ & OH W 3 U s M >-3 o o u K Q D r» 2 r_t W S O en S O H EH OMB IN CJ W 3 S ^ E M z M s EH a 3 w EH hH 0 «? 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JJ <= -H C £ 0 3 CO xi q •rH O JJ 13 Q) >.JJ r- M QJ 0 ^ a •H 0 01 01 IH )H d d 01 a d a JJ f0 ^tj 13 3 0 QJ C 0) 0) 01 -C 01 E-1 O O G • kJ. 0) a rH XI q d O rH •H -H JJ 10 0 > d d UH C.' 0 3 In tj1 d • H rH d JJ I-H d d 13 0 O JJ q TJ d CU rH c a • H UH JJ O) O OJ rH •rl jj a c CJ 0) > rH rH XI O d en -H rH 0) CD r1 M r_( V M • O Q/ E -tJ rc 13 •a c d o jj * M JJ QJ rH q •H O 3 0 XI 01 • ro IH 0) JJ a 10 r; CJ • JJ IH O a cu K en Q OH M 643 ------- wet cooling is utilized in order to conserve water, the increased cost of synthetic fuels would be about one cent per million Btu of fuel more than if high wet cooling had been used. In the case of a power plant, the added cost of intermediate wet cooling is 0.1 to 0.2 cents per kilowatt hour of electricity. Figure 8-4 indicates the manner in which water is consumed by the hypothesized energy facilities. As indicated, more water is used for cooling than processing and solids disposal combined. Solids disposal consumes comparable quantities of water for all technologies, varying primarily as a function of the ash content of the feedstock coal. Additional water requirements are associated with the coal mines that will support these facilities. Reclamation efforts (see Table 8-16) will use the majority of the mine water required; dust control, handling, crushing, and service water requirements are estimated to be approximately 1,240 acre-ft/yr1 for all four mines, or 25 percent of that required for reclamation. However, the reclamation water requirements are not clearly defined for this specific coal spoil waste under area climatic conditions. Table 8-16 estimates were based on an irrigation rate of 9 inches per year over a 5-year period. 2 Water for the various scenario energy conversion facilities in the Colstrip area will be imported by individual pipelines from the Yellowstone River as shown in Figure 8-5. The Yellowstone River is the most likely source of water because of its proximity, high flow, and good quality. However, there has been a 3-year moratorium on new diversions from the Yellowstone in excess of 20 cubic feet per second (cfs) (14,000 acre-ft/yr).3 This moratorium, which was to end in 1977, was put into effect to allow Montana time to clear up water rights questions raised by a change in procedures. Since the Montana Water Use Act of 1973, the state has administered all surface water and groundwater rights through a permit system. Montana is now in the process of determining valid appropriations under the old "right of use" system before approving new rights Harris, et al . Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States . Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. Differences between water demand of native grasses and aver- age precipitation. See U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Resource and Reclamation Evaluation: Otter Creek Study Site, EMIRA Report No. 1. Billings, Mont.: Bureau of Land Management, 1975. 3Montana Revised Codes Annotated § 89-8-105 (Cumulative Sup- plement 1975) . 644 ------- (0 0) ------- FIGURE 8-5: WATER PIPELINES FOR ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE COLSTRIP SCENARIO 646 ------- TABLE 8-16: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR RECLAMATION' MINE Power Plant Lurgi Synthane Synthoil Total ACRES DISTURBED PER YEAR 340 240 240 250 1,070 MAXIMUM ACRES UNDER IRRIGATION 1,720 1,180 1,180 1,250 5,330 WATER REQUIREMENT (acre-f t/yr) 1,290 890 890 940 4,010 acre-ft/yr = acre-feet per year aAssuming an irrigation rate of 9 inches per year over a 5-year period. that might overallocate Yellowstone River water. When this situa- tion has stabilized, a developer will hie able to apply for a new right. Although an old right could be transferred, it might not be recognized or given the same priority under the new system. B. Effluents from Energy Facilities Table 8-17 lists expected amounts of solid effluents to be produced by energy facilities in the Colstrip scenario. Solid ef- fluents will be produced by Lurgi, Synthane, Synthoil, and the 3,000 MWe power plant. The Synthoil facility is expected to pro- duce more than 4,300 tons of total solid effluents per day when operating at full capacity. The power plant will produce more than 4,100 tons of solid effluents per day. Solid wastes from the Lurgi plant are expected to be slightly less than 2,400 tons per day (tpd), and Synthane solid waste production is expected to total more than 2,200 tpd. The Synthoil plant is expected to have the highest rate of wet solid production (over 2,100 tpd); and the power plant is expected to produce the most dissolved and dry solids (60 and 2,222 tpd). The total daily solid waste production from all facilities hypothesized in the Colstrip scenario will be slightly less than 13,000 tpd. Dissolved solids are present in the ash blowdown stream, the demineralizer waste stream, and the flue gas desulfurization (FGD) 647 ------- CM H « EH en t-1 O U cn w en en w U o ft CM O M en O U O U O tf PM pa p j PM PM W I 00 w h-3 ffl i-H rd en O a. o SH EH (d S CU W >i p (-3 SH PM 0 W 4J 2 0 H 0 MH PJ 0 EH S-l H £ Q EH iS Q W o ^X en en H O w CM £H EH >* EH rH rH 1 — 1 Q PM O LO rH r^ 00 rH r-~ O m a\ co I-H r. CM rH CTl PI ** •d1 ^F CO O m CM CN H ». ^ ik. v CN CN rf ^J1 CN CO CTl CN kD CN CN CN fN r~ rH CN •. v ». rH CN CN r^ o o^ CN LO O CN CN o in rH co >. - ^ CN CN rH CN rH LO O CN CN CN U3 ^ >i rd T3 SH \ CO rH 3: 'd 'd X! 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EH u 648 ------- stream.l The principal constituents of wastewater which appear as dissolved solids are calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate, and chlorine. Wet solids from the electric power plant and Lurgi or Syn- thane gasification facilities are in the form of flue gas sludge, bottom ash, and cooling wastewater treatment sludge. Calcium car- bonate (CaC03) and calcium sulfate (CaSCK) are the primary constit- uents of flue gas sludge. Bottom ash is the primary constituent of wet solids produced by a Synthoil facility. The bottom ash is primarily made up of oxides of aluminum and silicon. CaC03 is the principal constituent of the cooling water treatment waste sludge. In all cases the amount of cooling water treatment waste is very small compared to the bottom ash and flue gas sludge. Dry solids waste produced by coal conversion processes is primarily fly ash composed of oxides of aluminum, silicon, and iron. The water in the effluent stream (Table 8-17) accounts for between 8 (power plant) and 12 (Synthane) percent of the total water re- quirements of coal conversion facilities (data in Table 8-17 com- pared to that in Table 8-15). Dissolved and wet solids are sent to evaporative holding ponds and later deposited in landfills. Dry solids are treated with water to prevent dusting and deposited in a landfill.2 8.3.4 Impacts This section describes water impacts which result from the mines, conversion facilities (a power plant, Lurgi plant, Synthane plant, and Synthoil plant), and from a scenario which includes con- struction of all facilities according to the hypothesized scenario schedule. The water requirements and impacts associated with ex- pected population increases are included in the scenario impact description. JNote that all coal conversion processes generate electricity on-site, thus flue gas cleaning, ash handling, and demineraliza- tion are required for all. One exception is the Synthoil process which uses clean fuel gas for power generation; fuel gas cleaning is not required for it. Demineralization is a method of preparing water for use in boilers; it produces a waste stream composed of chemicals present in the source water. The ash blowdown stream is the water used to remove bottom ash from the boiler. Bottom ash removal is done via a wet sluicing system using cooling tower blow- down water. Thus, the dissolved solids content of that stream is composed of chemicals from the ash and cooling water. 2The environmental problems associated with solid waste dis- posal in holding ponds and landfills are discussed in Chapter 10. 649 ------- A. Surface Mine Impacts The opening of the surface coal mines for the conversion fa- cilities will cause disturbances of aquifer systems in the Tongue River Member of the Fort Union Formation. Since the source of the coal, the Rosebud seam, is a large aquifer in the Tongue River Mem- ber, mine dewatering will probably be required in most areas. This dewatering may lead to local aquifer depletion and a resultant low- ering of water levels in nearby wells. Springs and seeps on hill- sides may dry up, and there may be a significant loss to the base flow of Rosebud Creek. The water from mine dewatering operations will be pumped to the facilities and used as make-up water for cooling towers or will be used for mine operations and for revege- tation of spoil material. Shallow bedrock aquifers in the coal and overburden will be lost in the mine area. Replacing the over- burden will not necessarily reestablish aquifers because homoge- nization of the overburden will change its porosity and permeabil- ity. If acid and trace element contaminants are present, they could move laterally and appear as part of the discharge of springs and seeps, thus contaminating these important sources of water for wildlife. Alluvial aquifers along Rosebud Creek may also be con- taminated by water from the strip mine, either by water recharging directly from polluted bedrock aquifers or by surface water from contaminated seeps and springs. There is a significant possibility that contaminated groundwater from the mine areas will begin flow- ing into Armells, Sarpy, and Rosebud Creeks (see Figure 8-3 for stream locations). The opening of the coal mines will also have some impact on the local surface water. Since vegetation will be removed and soil disturbed, the silt load will be increased in local streams until runoff can be controlled by ponding and settling. Until other uses develop, ponded runoff will be used for dust control and revegeta- tion, with the excess being evaporated. Ponding the runoff de- creases surface water flows which could affect the flow patterns of intermittent streams in the mine areas. There may also be fugi- tive spills of lubricants and fuels either in bulk from a storage site or from machine maintenance. These petroleum products will not readily degrade and will contaminate runoff. B. Energy Conversion Facilities Impacts Water impacts may be divided into those occurring during con- struction and operation, and those occurring because of the water requirements of and the effluents from the facilities. Although the construction activities associated with the fa- cilities are not expected to have an appreciable impact on any groundwater system in the scenario area, they will remove vegeta- tion and disturb the soil. Thus, construction activities will af- fect surface water quality, primarily in the form of sediment load 650 ------- increases. Additionally, the equipment used during construction will require petroleum storage and maintenance facilities. Other areas will be required for storage of materials for the concrete batch plant and other construction-related activities. All these facilities will contaminate runoff. Runoff control techniques will be instituted at all the potential contaminant locations. Runoff will be gathered in a common pond for settling, reuse, and evapo- ration. As the supply of water to this pond is very intermittent, evaporation may claim most of the water, although some may be used for dust control at aggregate storage sites. Assuming the facilities are high wet cooled, Table 8-15 shows the energy conversion plants will consume about 26,659 acre-ft/yr (power plant), 6,283 acre-ft/yr (Lurgi plant), 7,808 acre-ft/yr (Synthane plant), and 10,296 acre-ft/yr (Synthoil plant). For per- spective, the water source, the Yellowstone River at Miles City, has an average flow of 8,800,000 acre-ft/yr and minimum flow of 3,720,000 acre-ft/yr (Table 8-12).l Under worst-case conditions, when a facility is operating at 100 percent load factor on a day when the river was at low flow, withdrawals would range from 0.14 to 1.2 percent of the river flow depending on the type of facility. The disposal sites for effluents from the plants will pose a water quality hazard for shallow aquifer systems. Fluids from liq- uid waste disposal ponds (sanitary effluent, cooling tower blowdown, etc.) may infiltrate through leaky or ineffective pond liners and enter groundwater systems, thus lowering the quality of the water. C. Scenario Impacts Water impacts resulting from interactions among the hypothe- sized facilities and their associated mines and water impacts re- sulting from associated population increases are discussed in this section. Water requirements for direct use by these hypothesized energy facilities (assuming high wet cooling and operation at the expected load factor, Table 8-15) increase from approximately 26,700 acre- ft/yr in 1990 when the power plant is operating to 50,600 acre-ft/ yr in 2000 when all the facilities are operating. Additional water, about 8 percent of the water requirement for the facilities in 2000, may be required for mine reclamation purposes. Assuming that the towns on the Yellowstone River (including Miles City) will continue to use surface water for municipal needs, the projected increases in water supply requirements as a result 1Minimum flow is 5,135 cfs and is converted to acre-ft/yr only so that withdrawals by the energy facilities given in acre-ft/yr can be compared. 651 ------- TABLE 8-18: EXPECTED WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR INCREASED POPULATION3 (acre-feet per year) LOCATION Forsyth Colstrip Miles City Billings 1980 1,120 245 35 56 1990 4,256 420 91 154 2000 12,320 784 322 504 Above the 1975 base level; based on 125 gallons per capita per day. Based on 1,000 gallons per capita per day (present consumption during the summer - Montana Water Quality Bureau). Only growth caused by energy development included. of energy development (based on population predictions from Sec- tion (8.4) are shown in Table 8-18.l Rural population growth gen- erally is not expected because of county zoning and land-use prac- tices. The only municipality shown in Table 8-18 that will use groundwater as a supply source is Colstrip, where a well field will be developed that will tap aquifers in the Tongue River member. Since only about 500 gpm will be needed by the year 2000, the well field should not be extensive. Wastewater from the energy facilities (Table 8-17), which will be impounded in evaporation ponds, will average 2,837 acre-ft/yr by 1990, and 4,623 acre-ft/yr by 2000. The wastewater generated by the population increases associated with energy development is shown in Table 8-19. Rural populations are assumed to use indi- vidual, on-site waste facilities (septic tanks and drain fields), and the urban population will require waste treatment facilities. Current treatment practices in affected communities are shown in Table 8-20. Based on current treatment facility capacities, new facili- ties will be required in Colstrip before 1980, in Forsyth around 1990, and in Miles City before 2000. These facilities must use the "best practicable" waste -treatment technology to conform to 1 Increases from secondary industry are not included in obtain- ing population estimates. 652 ------- TABLE 8-19: EXPECTED WASTEWATER FLOWS FROM INCREASED POPULATION' LOCATION Forsyth Colstrip Miles City Billings 1980 0.1 0.175 0.025 0.04 1990 0.38 0.30 0.065 0.11 • 2000 0.1 0.56 0.23 0.36 Above the 1975 base level, based on 100 gallons per capita per day. Rural population is assumed to use septic tanks, so no wastewater is present. Only growth caused by energy development considered. 1983 standards.1 The 1985 goal (zero discharge of pollutants) could be met by using effluents for industrial process make-up water of for irrigating local farmland. (1) To 1980 Between the present and 1980, the only activity scheduled is the beginning of the construction of the 3,000 MWe power plant and the opening of the associated coal mine. Therefore, prior to 1980 there will be little land disturbance by mines (and therefore only minor reductions in the amount of runoff which no longer reaches streams) and no water required by the conversion facilities. Of the 1,456 acre-ft/yr of water required by the population increases associated with the Colstrip scenario, 245 acre-ft/yr for the town of Colstrip will come from the Tongue River Member aqui- fer. The remainder will come from the Yellowstone River to sat- isfy needs in Forsyth, Miles City, and Billings (see Table 8-18). The municipal growth at the Colstrip scenario will be re- stricted to expansion of existing communities, most of which have municipal sewage treatment facilities. Septic tanks may pose a significant hazard to groundwater quality in local Tongue River Member aquifers. The projected population increase at Colstrip for the scenario will increase the magnitude of the hazard to groundwater quality. Miles City, Forsyth, and Billings must increase their waste- water treatment facility capacities to meet the expected needs. 1 Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, Pub. L. 92-500, 86 Stat. 816, and 844 §§ 101, 301; 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976). 653 ------- 0) O H U CO ft H « EH CO J O U w ffi EH O PH CO U H EH CO H EH U ffi U W S EH Pi w EH EH CO O rsi I CO hH § EH CO 2 i_3 ft W PH J3 EH D fa U EH 2 CO w ft 2 O H CO W Q ^^ IS 'o o gj fa § •— ' EH T3 H QJ cj tn < S ft S <3 — U EH 2 H g ^j W EH O W ft >H EH £2 § O EH -P XI C 0 0) 0) -P C tfl to -H O CU 3 "O -H M 1 -P »4 1 C tO >i O CU C -P -H Cn O -H -P -H T) rH OS T3 C -H T3 03 U -H ti JD 03 X C i to !H O fa g C CU 0 -P •H tO i i ^. o) to S-l (U Cn Cn C O -H 4J (1) tO T3 -H 0) X i-1 CD CT> O-i U-l D O o rH (N O •H CO •H • rH G O •H -P 03 N -H rH •H X! 03 -P to U 1 ro -P •rH U to CU rH •H S Q) O 2 o en en o o en o > o C O OS N •rH rH •H X) 0) -P to rH CU O 1 ro p. •rH !H -p to rH o o 1 V-) -P (1) 03 X! OJ g M Q) -P -P P, >i CU ^H CO 03 T! -p G fi O 03 U rH CD cii CO -P V£> S G r~ CU CU Cn 2 g H to Cn G •H rH iH •H PQ OS (1) to c o OS tn fi O •H •H g 03 C OS fl O S O CU -p OS 4J CO to U •H CO 03 -P a CU g a c w 03 X! -P rH OS QJ a o -P in os CU Q g O SH 0) H-> •P 654 ------- As shown in Tables 8-19 and 8-20, wastewater treatment requirements will exceed capacity at Colstrip. Facilities must be expanded or treatment levels must be upgraded to meet the requirements of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (FWPCA) guidelines. This com- bined effect will be felt most acutely within the smaller communi- ties, and some financial hardship may result. (2) To 1990 Construction of the 3,000 MWe, coal-fired power plant will continue, and its associated coal mine will be opened during the 1980-1985 period. The power plant will go on-line in 1985. In addition, construction will begin on the Lurgihigh-Btu gasifica- tion plant and its associated coal mine after 1985 so that this plant can begin operation by 1990. By 1990, the mine for the power plant will have disturbed 1,700 acres of land (Table 8-16) resulting in runoff impoundment of about 140 acre-ft/yr.1 Water consumption for the operation of the power plant (26,660 acre-ft/yr) will be about 0.3 percent of the average flow and 0.72 percent of the minimum flow of the Yellowstone River at Miles City. About 4,920 acre-ft/yr of additional water will be required by population increases caused by the scenario at Colstrip (Table 8-18). Of this amount, 420 acre-ft/yr will be withdrawn from groundwater sources in the town of Colstrip. This quantity of water, which is equivalent to about 260 gpm, may begin to deplete the local shallow aquifers. Several wells will be required, and local water levels may be lowered. This scenario assumes that the 'town of Colstrip will build a municipal sewage treatment plant between 1985 and 1990. Until then, the septic tank and drainfield systems will continue to degrade the water quality of local shallow aquifers. The population influx during the 1980-1990 decade will add considerably to the ground- water quality problems. Much of the water taken from local ground- water supplies will be returned to the shallow aquifers through the septic tanks, but such recycling may have serious public health implications. The natural renovating capacity (primarily filtra- tion by sands and absorption by clays) of the Tongue River Member may be exceeded with increased septic tank use. Although the water usage of the municipalities relying on sur- face water will increase, the amount demanded will still be small compared to the total flow of the Yellowstone. Water requirements for municipalities will increase as more construction workers mi- grate into the area. Forsyth will have the greatest increase, about 4,250 acre-ft/yr above the 1975 level. Municipalities must Assuming one inch of runoff per year. 655 ------- also treat an increased wastewater load as shown in Table 8-19. Forsyth will have the greatest increase and will exceed the capac- ity of its current facilities. Because provisions of the FWPCA restrict pollutant discharge after 1983, the communities affected by growth have the additional problem of effluent disposal. Alter- nate disposal methods, such as selling the effluent to the energy conversion facilities for use as irrigation water for mine recla- mation, will be sought. Therefore, no appreciable impact is likely in local surface waters. (3) To 2000 The Lurgi high-Btu gasification plant will go into operation in 1990. Construction of the Synthane high-Btu gasification plant and associated coal mine will begin shortly after 1990, and the plant will begin operating in 1995. Finally, construction will begin after 1995 on the Synthoil coal liquefaction plant and its associated coal mine, and the plant will begin operation in 2000. By 2000, a total of 8,700 acres of land will have been dis- turbed by the coal mines for the facilities (Table 8-16), reducing runoff to surface streams (via impoundment) by about 700 acre-ft/ yr. This reduction is likely to affect the flow patterns of local streams. The water requirement for the operation of all the sce- nario facilities (at the expected load factor and assuming high wet cooling, see Table 8-15) will total about 0.6 percent of the average flow and 1.3 percent of the minimum flow of the Yellow- stone River at Miles City. By the year 2000, the town of Colstrip will withdraw about 780 acre-ft/yr (480 gpm) from local groundwater resources. After 1990, the town will be using a municipal sewage treatment facility; thus, none of this water will be returned to shallow aquifers through septic tank systems. The result will likely be depletion of local shallow aquifers as described for the preceding decade. A total of 13,930 acre-ft/yr of surface water above the 1975 level will be required by Forsyth, Miles City, and Billings. This amount of water should not significantly affect flow in the Yellow- stone River. Wastewater treatment plant capacity must be expanded from the 1975 base level by a factor of 10 for Miles City and Forsyth, and the capacity at Colstrip must be tripled. Thus, the communities will probably have substantial problems in funding and constructing new treatment plants on an appropriate schedule, and package treatment will probably be used as a stopgap measure. Be- cause pollutants from municipal facilities will not be discharged into surface streams, there will not be any significant impacts on local watersheds. 656 ------- (4) After 2000 All four coal conversion facilities will continue to operate after 2000, and their impacts will be much the same as those des- cribed for earlier decades. The mines will continue to have long-range impacts on ground- water systems after mine operations cease, despite the reclamation measures that will be undertaken for restoration of surface uses of the land. The overburden that is returned to the mine will have aquifer characteristics quite different from the original, undis- turbed overburden. The evaporative pond dikes which have been maintained during plant operation will receive no maintenance after shutdown. These dikes could lose their protective vegetation, erode, and eventually be breached. Subsequently, the materials within the pond site will erode and enter the surface water system. The salt concentrations may be high enough to cause damage to local streams. 8.3.5 Summary of Water Impacts Water impacts are caused by (1) the water requirements of and effluents from the energy facilities, (2) the water requirements of and wastewater generated by associated population increases, and (3) the coal mining process itself. Assuming the energy facilities hypothesized for the Colstrip area are high wet cooled, the water requirements in acre-ft/yr are 26,659 for the power plant, 6,283 for the Lurgi plant, 7,808 for the Synthane plant, and 10,296 for the Synthoil plant. Operation of all the facilities could require as much as 50,600 acre-ft/yr from the Yellowstone River. The use of intermediate wet cooling for the facilities operating at the expected load factor could reduce this amount by 48 percent. The Yellowstone River, the water source for the hypothesized energy conversion facilities, has an average annual flow at Miles City of 8,800,000 acre-ft/yr and min- imum flow of 3,720,000 acre-ft/yr. Thus, all facilities operating at the expected load factor during a low flow period (a worst-case) would consume only 1.4 percent of the river flow. Wastewater from the energy facilities (in acre-ft/yr) average 2,107 from the power plant, 580 from the Lurgi plant, 915 from the Synthane plant, and 871 from the Synthoil plant. The objective of zero discharge of pollutants set forth in the FWPCA1 will necessi- tate on-site entrapment and disposal of all these effluents. There- fore, effluents will be discharged into clay-lined, on-site evapo- rative holding ponds. Furthermore, runoff prevention systems will federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, Pub. L. 92-500, 86 Stat. 816, and 844, §§ 101, 301; 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976). 657 ------- be installed to direct runoff to a holding pond or to a water treatment facility. These methods protect the quality of surface water systems (at least for the life of the plants), but ground- water quality may be reduced by leakage and leaching from the dis- posal ponds and pits. Municipal water use in the scenario area will be 13,390 acre- ft/yr by the year 2000. If the towns in the area continue to use surface water, most of the water demand will be met with water from the Yellowstone River.1 However, surface water resources are not expected to be greatly affected by the municipal water require- ments. Increased population will also cause wastewater increases totalling 1,25 million gallons per day by 2000. New sewage treat- ment plants in several towns, particularly in Colstrip, will be required. The coal mines for the energy facilities will have impacts on both groundwater and surface water. Mine dewatering, which will probably be required in most areas, may lead to local aquifer de- pletion and a resultant lowering of water levels in nearby wells. Springs and seeps on hillsides may dry up, and there may be a sig- nificant loss to the base flow of Rosebud Creek. Shallow bedrock aquifers in the coal and overburden will be lost in the mine area, and replacing the overburden will not necessarily reestablish aqui- fers. Furthermore, contaminants from the mines may contaminate springs, seeps, alluvial aquifers, and creeks in the area. By 2000, nearly 9,000 acres of land will have been disturbed by the coal mines. Silt loading in local streams will occur until runoff is controlled by ponding. Ponding the runoff will decrease surface water flow and alter flow patterns in local, intermittent streams. 8.4 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS 8.4.1 Introduction The primary area of social and economic effects in the Colstrip scenario will be Rosebud County, Montana and, to a lesser extent, the cities of Billings and Miles City. Most of the effects anticipated will result either directly or indirectly from popula- tion changes. 8.4.2 Existing Conditions Rosebud County covers 5,037 square miles and had a 1975 popu- lation of approximately 8,600 people. The resulting population density of 1.69 persons per square miles is low in comparison with the 1970 Montana average of 4.77 persons per square mile. The Colstrip will be the only scenario municipality using ground water. 658 ------- county's population has increased since 1970 after a period of relative stability with most of the growth occurring in Colstrip and Forsyth (see Table 8-21). In 1970, the Northern Cheyenne In- dian Reservation in the southern portion of Rosebud County ac- counted for 1,700 people, or about 28 percent of the county's population. Agriculture dominates the Rosebud County economy, accounting for 33 percent of all earned income in 1972 (the average for Montana was 19.7 percent). The average size ranch or farm was 2,665 acres in 1974. The proportion of farm income from ranching (livestock income) is higher than the state average: 75.9 percent compared to 63.6 percent. (The distribution of employment by industry in 1970 is shown in Table 8-22.) However, recent development related to power plant construction has altered this pattern by adding sub- stantially to the construction employment proportion. As shown in Figure 8-6, the county's road network is more de- veloped in an east-west direction, focusing on Billings 100 miles to the west and Miles City to the east. Both the Burlington North- ern (formerly Northern Pacific) and the Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Paul, and Pacific Railroads cross the county from east to west, running through Forsyth. A spur line runs south through Colstrip. Rosebud County is governed by a board of three elected county commissioners. There is currently no county charter, but one is being developed by a study commission elected in 1975. A county planning board was created in January 1974, and a master plan was to be completed by late 1976. Law enforcement consists of one sheriff with deputies in Forsyth (the county seat), Colstrip, Ashland, and Birney. Colstrip is an unincorporated community owned by Western En- ergy Company, a subsidiary of Montana Power Company.1 Most basic municipal services, such as streets, water, and sewer facilities, have been provided by the company.2 The planning board has taken an active role to assure that the town of Colstrip meets all county zoning and building requirements. A town council has been formed to provide resident input to Western Energy Company planners. There were no full-time physicians or dentists in Colstrip in 1975; since then, a clinic facility has been opened with a full-time staff. Forsyth, the county seat and only incorporated town in Rose- bud County, is governed by a mayor and four councilmen. There is Colstrip has been a company-owned town since it was founded by Northern Pacific Railroad in 1923. It was sold to Montana Power in 1959. 2Current sewage treatment facilities consist of septic tanks and drainage systems. 659 ------- FIGURE 8-6: TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES IN THE ROSEBUD COUNTY AREA 660 ------- TABLE 8-21: POPULATION OF ROSEBUD COUNTY, COLSTRIP AND FORSYTH, 1940-19753 YEAR 1975b 1974 1973 1970 1960 1950 1940 ROSEBUD COUNTY 8,500 6,959 6,032 6,187 6,570 6,477 COLSTRIP 3,000 2,650 1,800 422 439 553 FORSYTH 2,500 2,950 2,700 1,873 2,032 1,906 1,696 aU.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. County and City Data Book; A Statistical Abstract Supplement. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1972; University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research. A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.: Institute for Social Science Research, 1974; Westinghouse Elec- tric Corporation, Environmental Systems Department. Colstrip Generation and Transmission Project: Appli- cant's Environmental Analysis. Pittsburgh, Pa.: Westinghouse Electric Corporation, 1973; Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Im- pacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts and Federal Assistance in En- ergy Development Impacted Communities in Region VIII. Denver, Colo.: Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975. Estimated. no planning department, and most of the planning is done by the city through the use of consultants. Forsyth has both city-owned and operated water and sewage treatment systems, and expansion of the water system is now underway. 8.4.3 Factors Producing Impacts Two factors associated with energy facilities dominate as the cause of social and economic impacts: manpower requirements and taxes levied on the energy facilities. Tax rates are tied to cap- ital costs, and/or the value of coal extracted, and/or the value of energy produced. Taxes which apply to the Colstrip scenario facilities (power plant, Lurgi and Synthane gasification plants, and Synthoil liquefaction plant) and their associated mines are 661 ------- TABLE 8-22: EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION IN ROSEBUD COUNTY, 1970 INDUSTRY Total Civilian Labor Force Total Employed Agriculture Contract Construction Manufacturing Wholesale and Retail Trade Services Education Government Other Total Unemployed (1970) a NUMBER 2,346 2,238 497 116 175 316 81 257 553 243 108 PERCENTAGE 100 95.4 22.2 5.2 7.8 14.1 3.6 11.5 24.7 10.9 4.6 U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the County and City Data Book; A Statistical Ab- Source: Census. stract Supplement. Washington, D.C.: ing Office, 1972, p. 294. Government Print- June 1978 unemployment is 6.4 percent (Montana State Government Office of Research Analysis, 1978). property tax, a severance tax, and royalty payments on federally owned coal. The manpower requirements for each scenario facility and its associated surface coal mine are given in Tables 8-23 to 8-26. For the mines, the manpower requirement for operation exceeds the peak construction manpower requirement by two times. However, the reverse is true for the conversion facilities; the peak construc- tion manpower requirement exceeds the operation requirement by 1.7 (Synthoil plant) to 7.0 times (Lurgi and Synthane plants). The peak total manpower requirements for each mine-conversion facility increases from the first year when construction begins, peaks, and then declines as construction activity ceases. The peak total man- power requirement for the Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil mine-plant combination is about 5,000 and for the power plant, about 3,000. The fraction Of the peak total manpower requirement needed for operation of the mine and plant combination ranges from 0.2 for the Lurgi and Synthane plants to 0.6 for the Synthoil plant. The to- tal manpower required for operation of the Synthoil facility and its associated mine is more than three times that for each of the other plant-mine combinations. 662 ------- O ft EH § § O O o o m < n) gg S E^D 2 Pfl W EH § rd v4-i 3 rH O •— » CU C !-l -O CU rd O CU S Q) >i tr> tji M >H C rd CU -H H 0- C C CU u) rd C C rH •H O ft 6 -P rH C H rd O 0-< O -H a U H 3 rH CO CU -H 0 g >i rd tn MH OO M M • 0) rj VC C Cfl rH W rd 4-i CU -O 0 EH rd T3 • k. in t~~ (Ti rH «. g 0 •H 4-1 rd O p.. M 0 U rH CU 4-1 r\| O CU CQ • 4-1 •• CU C! 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(M TJI CN o ^D r — i in i — f CTI o ro M O rH i£> CN (N CM rH HO,™^- 0) C a c cu en CTi O -P ft o •H -p 03 o M . . o rH E tnU 0) O C -H •H iH C5 ^ Q) U • C oo pq 0) U -P (U 03 3 £ IH O EH >H X! 3 03 en — • rH 03 -P 03 CCS ($ (TJ H ,£ - QJ -P O C en co >i en a co o3 o3 JH 4d -P o3 -P 03 U CO 03 5H O (I) O tJ M -P C 03 03 £5 03 tn— , -P 0 M 03 O 03 P C CU tfl 0 >i (1) H o H !-l 03 (L) U £X O CM U + en -H O U -P 03 O h rH C en 03 -H CO 4J en -H i—I (T3 O -P (L) (M O 665 ------- CN I 00 w !_q C 0^ w g o tn CO H 15 H g TART H CO OCN££^g in CN 'tf1 CN CN t* in o o CN oo c^ ro ro vo o> ^ oo o in CN CN o CN rr in o VD rH in ro rH o CN CN rHCNC^in) ^^ CN r^ 00 O^ 00 CT» H rj in rd ti d rd 4-1 d rd r— I p-4 rH •H 0 X! 4-1 d !>i CO fd rH O m CU in rd rd •P rd Q Cfl en £j O -P £j O rH rH •rH g O • CN r-H 4-1 rj O X! rd — 4-> £ rd rH Pu rH •rH O r; •P d >i CO -p fd XI 4-> ^i rH P-l DH in 0 4-1 c\ DI 0 0 fj CU 1 rd in O H p. DJ j3 CO !>i tn i_i CU CJ w CU r. EH CX-H SH O CJ rH (D 4-1 X! 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CU 4-1 •H rj [2 f4 •H rrj (U 4-1 M O a CU rH CU !H fd rd 4J rd - d o 4-1 tP pH 0^ rd d in -H rd g & o o XI • -P 4-1 SH O 0-t CU PH in g CU in £i CO -P d CU g a, o rH d) J> CU Q CU U SH rj O in CU On t^ tn SH 0) W •• •P in CU SH O MH •. K^l U d Q) tJI fjj d 0 •rl 4-1 U CU •p 0 SH ft rH rd 4-1 d CU g o rl •rl £> d H «. • CO • • ro D iH CU .. .p * 0- U rd • XI P U 666 ------- A property tax which is tied to capital costs of the facili- ties and a severance tax and royalty payments which are tied to the value of coal generate revenue for the state and local governments. The capital costs of the conversion facilities and mines hypothe- sized for the Colstrip scenario are given in Table 8-27. Costs range (in millions of 1975 dollars) from about 1,150 (mine-gasifi- cation plant facility) to 2,170 (mine-Synthoil plant facility). The property tax, most of which goes to local governments, is lev- ied on the cash value of the facility (approximately the total cap- ital cost given in Table 8-27) after construction of the facility is completed, but no property tax is collected when a facility is located on an Indian reservation. The property tax in Rosebud County, Montana is about 1.19 percent.1 Currently, there is no sales tax, but a severance tax of 30.5 percent is levied on the coal extracted. Revenue obtained from the severance tax is divided between the state government and local government (52.3 and 47.7 respectively). State and local government also receive 50 percent of royalty payments which are about 12.5 percent of the value of federally owned coal.2 However, all royalties are retained by Indian tribes when the coal is on Indian reservations. 8.4.4 Impacts The nature and extent of the social and economic impacts caused by this factor depend on the size and character of the com- munity or communities in which workers and their families live, on the state and local tax structure, and on many other social and economic factors. A scenario, which calls for the development of power, Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil facilities according to a specified time schedule (see Table 8-1), is used here as a vehicle through which the nature and extent of the impacts are explored. The discussion relates each impact type to the hypothetical sce- nario and includes population impacts, housing and school impacts, economic impacts, fiscal impacts, social and cultural impacts, and political and governmental impacts. A. Population Impacts The first major impact on the Rosebud County area from the scenario will be from construction workers associated with the power plant complex beginning in 1977 (Table 8-28). Construction activity in the scenario is scheduled to end in 2000, although JThis is the effective, average property tax rate. The actual rate is computed using a number of assessment ratios, since certain kinds of equipment (e.g., pollution control equipment) are taxed at different rates or may be exempt. i 2This is the federal government's target rate; actual rates will vary from mine to mine. 667 ------- en w H EH H U < En § H EH U EH en P3 O U CM en Q id H rH K rH H O a in K t^ en rH cj m c< o D O en en G w O a -H rH hi rH l CN ^O ^D CO ^T ro oo i — 1 (Ti CT» {O ^D 00 ^ ^p ^O x-^ 03 U rH a. .n S XI x— O O CD m o g CN O 2 — ' ^ en o CD O -P O •H 0 C rH -P o rd -— •H rH rH CO CM -P 1 ,^f (-H ~ W O G 03 03 -P O rH CM G -H CM 03 -P G rH 03 rH O CM U -H •H -H O en SH m xl (H CD -H -P CD S en G > O 03 >i C CM O en 0 U CN ^j1 ro O oo o oo £> in « CN CN CO rH CN >^> IT) ia s C -P Qjg •H a -P o 2j a a ^ • § • CN rH OO 00 rH fd • »o ^ — ' — O U3 • CJ rH -P — ' — G C CD 03 03 U -P 4J rH rH 03 G G CM CM m 03 o3 SH rH rH CD H 3 CM CM C -H en o3 o M -H X! X! 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CD rH 03 x; o- -p > CD SH C CN 03 -rH rd TJ rH •P CD CD 03 N T3 Q -H O ------- TABLE 8-28: CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION EMPLOYMENT FOR COLSTRIP SCENARIO, 1975-2000 (person years) YEAR 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 CONSTRUCTION 40 420 900 1,350 2,280 2,750 2,200 890 70 820 2,890 4,890 2,830 70 820 2,890 4,920 3,090 1,010 2,070 2,380 1,730 640 0 OPERATION 0 0 0 0 0 110 380 490 990 990 990 1,260 1,260 2,130 2,130 2,130 2,400 2,400 3,270 3,270 3,270 3,540 4,180 5,100 TOTAL 40 420 900 1,350 2,280 2,860 2,580 1,380 1,060 1,810 3,880 6,150 4,090 2,200 2,950 5,020 7,320 5,490 4,280 5,340 5,650 5,270 4,820 5,100 Source: Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975. employment in construction is minimal in 1985 and 1990.* The pop- ulation estimates explicitly take into account the major market centers of Eastern Montana, Billings, and Miles City, as well as settlements in Rosebud County (Figure 8-7). Population changes were estimated by means of an,economic base model, the employment data from Table 8-28, and the multi- pliers in Tables 8-29 and 8-30. 669 ------- 30 25 20- C fC CO 3 O £ •4-1 O -H •P (C O Rosebud County Forsyth Colstrip Others Ashland 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 8-7: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR ROSEBUD COUNTY, 1975-2000 670 ------- tn x; 4J U o c ro -H a E 4J -H C 01 £ C o a n> -HO Ji? 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C - CO O vo .x ra m jj in • O - 1 in ra £ r- H D iH ra rd 0 a CO IH E o o >i -rl CO > C IH O T3 0) -H rH CO JJ 01 ro -H C CJ h O -H • H MH rH JJ -H ro ro ra 0 E rfl CJ O C UH rH 0 C ra -H HOC CJ 3 rH rO MH 4J O O >H •H 0 c tn CM x: 4J O CJ 0) 01 rfl ,c EH a4J £ rH H MH ro O C rH 0 ro ra -H -H cn •P O C ra O -H Z tO rrj c D CO 0 • • 0 rd W M > 0. , — I in •3* a a « in [•^ CT. rH fc 0) Cn CO iH rH O CJ ro C ro JJ r* % C SH CO JJ ra ra H JJ I ra en •a c - rH -rH T3 rd • rH rH C T3 rH Q) O CO -H •H OS CO UH en - • C C CM • HO C SH ra C O D-J/ O -H to u ra JJ •H iH CJ M -H 01 • K S CO c O - - JJ H rji ,y CJ JJ TT IH rd rd 1 ra & r-\| O\ rH E -P CN CJ H 1 JJ Cn c c QJ -H E x; rH ro O U jj C CO o CO K UH 0 w Jj o CO UH UH W rH (D CJ ra •H 0) EH • > ro ** ra Jj c i k a •H IH 4J ra rH 0 CJ a ra • O ro 0 ra c ID a ^ u IH 01 x: IH 3 JH 01 1 1 T3 £ ro 0 jj JJ • H —1 • H Q <- ra >-, -P H 2 3 \| O CJ CO UH • o 0) •P C •H 0 X! -H S 4J ra • 3 > rH ro 0) > rH W T> C C rfl n) OS TD T3 C C to rfl JJ - C • o CJ E a co o C rH H 0) X > rO CO S Q rH ^ 0) I 4J- M >, O U fi •H 01 M OH O Cw rH rrj M C rH .H rd r~H rl 0) C CJ r-l S -H MH 1 rH ro n X! CJ -H fH 3 • ra ra co oi in 4J 3 ro O Cn a d ra IH Cn Cn O C rd -H y CO IH IH 0 ro 3 ra T3 VJ C 0) ro •H MH O j-H - o IH a in CH 0) U IH •H QJ MH ^ MH IH 0 0 IH C 0 O •rl -H IH JJ 01 U 4J 3 C IH H JJ I/I 0) C Xi O 4J U u-t o -P 0 C )H CO ro E a) -P in SH CO ro OS a o s CO C • -H 3 rfl 4J c 3 O U E Q E 0 IH C UH O JJ T3 Cn 0) C 4J X! in ro ra r- t> ro 01 < ^ rH JL rH 01 JJ -H rH rH 3 -H E E rO 0) UH ra 0) 01 EH rl rd rH • kO - r- ra O\ TJ rH rH 0 -X C Q) 0 W •H 3 in o to x; onutu son CJ U CO rH a ro 1 C CO 0 r-l -H C^1 Cn C QJ -H OS ra JJ ra ra ra Q) S tn SH 73 O rH JJ O O ra UH .. • X CJ CJ • 3 Q ra - Q) C CJ 0 C -P fl 671 ------- TABLE 8-30: ASSUMED POPULATION ATTRACTION OR CAPTURE RATES USED TO ALLOCATE POPULATION WITHIN ROSEBUD COUNTY Energy Population 1975-1985 1986-1990 1991-2000 Service Population 1975-1985 1986-1990 1991-2000 FORSYTE .40 .20 .30 .75 .40 .40 COLSTRIP .40 .20 .30 .15 .20 .20 ASHLAND .10 .40 .20 .10 .30 .20 OTHER .10 .20 .20 .10 .20 The projected population of Rosebud County is expected to increase more than three-fold to over 27,000 by 2000 (Table 8-31) .1 The peak population occurs in 1993 in all parts of the county, with a slightly smaller short-term peak in 1988. Ashland will receive the most severe impact because of its current small size; its 1988 peak is nearly 10 times its present size of 500. Forsyth and Colstrip remain over 5,000 population after 1986 with occasional peaks during construction activity. The projections reported here effectively consider Colstrip as more similar to other towns. However, its past and present ownership by Western Energy Company could preclude additional population from settling there. If Colstrip is incorporated by the mid-1980's, the populations in Table 8-31 are more realistic. Outside Rosebud County, Miles City and Billings will receive a noticeable amount of service industry growth stemming from Because the Northern Cheyenne Reservation is not the site of coal development in this scenario, estimates of Indian employment are difficult to make. About 200-300 Indians may be directly em- ployed, and out-migration is likely to be slowed. The Northern Cheyenne population is included in the "other" category in Table 8-31. 672 ------- TABLE 8-31: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR ROSEBUD COUNTY, 1975-2000' YEAR 1975 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 ROSEBUD COUNTY 8,600 11,620 13,350 14,850 14,700 12,740 12,690 14,260 18,430 23.200 19,680 17,160 18,710 22,860 27,660 24,500 23,350 25,540 26,270 25,910 25,770 27,170 FORSYTH 2,500 3,820 4,690 5,290 5,270 4,440 4,510 4,880 5,870 7.010 6,260 5,830 6,320 7,640 9,170 8,200 7,900 8,600 8,840 8,750 8,750 9,240 COLSTRIP 3,000 4,080 4,770 5,230 5,130 4,380 4,280 4,610 5,460 6,430 5,740 5,250 5,690 6,870 8,220 7,310 6,910 7,530 7,740 7,630 7,550 7,910 ASHLAND 500 790 980 1,100 1,090 890 880 1,450 3,020 4,810 3,400 2,340 2,640 3,470 4,420 3,790 3,550 3,990 4,130 4,050 4,020 4,350 OTHERb 2,600 2,930 3,090 3,230 3,210 3,030 3,020 3,320 4,080 4,950 4,280 3,740 4,060 4,880 5,850 5,200 4,990 5,420 5,560 5,480 5,450 5,670 Given the development in this scenario, the pop- ulation increases are within a -25 percent range of expected conditions. For example, Rosebud County's population in 2000 should be between 22,500 and 31,800. Other includes a rural population of about 1,800 throughout the period, as well as townsites such as Rosebud, Lame Deer, and Birney. wholesale and retail sales to Rosebud County residents.1 Miles City, east of Forsyth, should grow in population by 5,800, or 62 1 University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research. A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and" Northeastern Wyoming'. Missoula, Mont. : University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research, 1974, pp. 61-69; and Polzin, Paul E. Water Use and Coal Development in Eastern Montana. Bozeman, Mont.:Montana State University,Joint Water Resources Research Center, 1974. 673 ------- percent, by the year 2000. Expected growth in the Billings area of 17,800 is only about 27 percent of its current population. The bulk of the overall population increase from the scenario is ex- pected to take place within Rosebud County, where nearly all of the cyclincal impacts occur.l Age-sex breakdowns of the projected population of Rosebud County help to indicate the housing and educational needs of the area. From the county's 1970 age-sex distributions, new immi- grants were assumed to fall into categories derived from studies of energy-impacted communities.2 The resulting age-sex distribu- tion (Table 8-32) shows particular increases in the 25-34 age groups and a high proportion of school-age children through 1985. The disparity between males and females should diminish through- out the energy development period. B. Housing and School Impacts Housing demand and school enrollment can be estimated by em- ploying the information in Tables 8-31 and 8-32 and by assuming that the 6-13 age group is elementary school enrollment and the 14-16 age group comprises secondary school enrollment (Table 8-33, Figure 8-8). The demand for housing is twice the 1975 level by the mid-1980's, then doubles again during the peak construction activity around 1993 (Table 8-33). At least 600 extra homes would be needed for peak population before the year 2000. In accordance with the experience of other energy-impacted areas, much of the housing for development workers will be pro- vided by mobile homes. About 39 percent of Rosebud County's hous- ing in 1974 was made up of mobile homes, up from about 9.5 percent in 1970.3 More than 50 percent of the newcomers will be forced to live in mobile homes, with the percentage being higher at Colstrip than at Forsyth. "* These trends were begun in connection with When construction employment does not carry over from year to year, the employees, their families, and one-half of the asso- ciated service population is assumed to leave the area. Given the large amount of energy construction activity which might occur in the West, this assumption is as reasonable as its alternatives. 2Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, B.C.: Old West Regional Commission,1976, pp. 33-38. 3U.S., Department of Agriculture, Committee for Rural Develop- ment. 1975 Situation Statement; Rosebud-Treasure Counties. For- syth, Mont.: Department of Agriculture, 1975, pp. 65-74. ^Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Com- munity Report; Forsyth and Colstrip, Montana.Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission,1976. 674 ------- TABLE 8-32: PROJECTED AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION FOR ROSEBUD COUNTY, 1975-2000 CATEGORY Females 65 and over 55-64 35-54 25-34 20-24 17-19 14-16 6-13 0-5 Total Males 65 and over 55-64 35-54 25-34 20-24 17-19 14-16 6-13 0-5 Total 1975 .051 .039 .102 .057 .035 .025 .029 .092 .064 .494 .050 .043 .113 .059 .027 .020 .038 .095 .060 .516 1980 .037 .035 .102 .090 .043 .027 .023 .072 .051 .480 .036 .041 .118 .104 .042 .026 .029 .074 .049 .520 1985 .033 .031 .098 .113 .042 .027 .023 .075 .055 .496 .033 .033 .105 .115 .037 .024 .029 .076 .052 .504 1990 .024 .026 .095 .143 .045 .028 .020 .066 .050 .498 .023 .028 .100 .144 .042 .026 .024 .067 .049 .502 1995 .018 .024 .094 .158 .048 .029 .018 .059 .046 .494 .017 .026 .100 .163 .047 .029 .020 .059 .045 .506 2000 .016 .022 .094 .172 .048 .030 .017 .056 .045 .499 .015 .027 .096 .172 .047 .028 .019 .057 .044 .501 Source: Table 8-31 and data adapted from Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington,D.C.:Old West Regional Com- mission, 1976, pp. 33-38. construction activity on Colstrip power plant Units 1 and 2, and would continue in the scenario development here. Any single- and multifamily units are likely to be located primarily at town sites within the county. Since only Forsyth and Colstrip currently pro- vide municipal water service, development in the Ashland vicinity must rely on septic tanks. School enrollment impacts will be relatively minor through 1983, with a 43 percent elementary increase and a 49 percent sec- ondary increase over 1975 levels (Table 8-33). From 1983 to 1993, 675 ------- TABLE 8-33: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IN ROSEBUD COUNTY, 1975-2000 YEAR 1975 1980 1983 1988 1993 1995 2000 HOUSEHOLDS3 2,510 3,960 4,470 7,330 8,900 7,680 8,300 ELEMENTARYb 1,560 1,700 2,220 3,090 3,480 2,760 3,070 SECONDARY0 510 600 760 1,020 1,130 890 980 Estimated from'number of males aged 22 and over, representing an aggregate of single- person households and families. Estimates should be seen as medians in a 25-percent error range. Ages 6-13, resulting in somewhat low estimates; the'upper end of the range should be 20-25 per- cent above these figures. Ages 14-16, resulting in somewhat low estimates; see "b" above. enrollments will nearly double at both school levels. The enroll- ments peak in 1993, and the 2000 enrollments are very close to the 1988 levels. This suggests that temporary facilities could accommodate the 1990's construction bulge at much less expense than permanent structures. About 200 new classrooms will be needed for the 1993 peak, which is about 25 more than will be needed for the 2000 enrollment (Table 8-34). Capital expenditures for new schools should be below $6.5 million, especially if modular-type classrooms are used for peak enrollments; annual operating expen- ditures should double (in constant dollars) by 1993. l The distri- bution of these needs within the county is suggested by the pop- ulation distribution in Table 8-31. 1 These estimates may be compared with U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation and Center for Interdisciplinary Studies. Anticipated Effects of Major Coal Development on Public Services, Costs, and Revenues in Six Selected Counties. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974 , pp. 230-52. 676 ------- 10 w nd (d en 3 O x; -P c o •H -P (0 8- 6 - 4- Households Elementary Secondary 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 8-8: PROJECTED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS, ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN ROSEBUD COUNTY, 1975-2000 677 ------- o o o CM I in CO M U H rt E-i CO H P O U P D OQ W CO s rt o CO H EH H P § U W o H O O K CJ CO ro I CO W 0 o 0 CM in en en rH 00 en en rH CO CO en rH ro CO en rH o CO en rH m H 0 m 0 . o in ^ oo o rH ^ O rH rH ^ O 00 en CM 0 o ro CM o o CD to td CD M U G H in -P r~ G en CD rH g rH 5-1 rH (D 0 > rH O G W oo en rH ^ r- rH O CM CM vo en H CM ^ rH O rH rH £ 'g 0 o V-4 5H 0) to p.. g 0 rH O CM 5H CO H-I to rd rd — rH U m en • ^p m en oo in oo • vo 0 rH in CO CM 00 m • o CD HH H O -P tort -H rH G — 13 CD 0 CO G > -H 5H CD O H rd p, rH i— 1 X CD -H rH W co g O rd — p rd rH CD rd 5n in m -P U r-~ r-- •H G en en p., H H I-H rd CJ vo o • m vo m 3 vo p^ • m rH in oo oo 00 00 • CN ,£> CO ^ 1 G to tP G O rH G H -H rd •H H H 4-> CD rH rH rd S-J -H O rH 3 g 13 CD -P - &I-H in O i3 CD r- G to en H (D fd rH td ex CD 3 X rH MH G W 0 0 < to to •H I M rd 13 O W W rt >• r^ rd - G A O CLi O CD CD to CO G - rd •H >, O H-l O G rH CD P4 g gr^ O W rH M—I M—I o CD CO G -P •H CO rd O -P CJ X! O 13 O -rH j Ml CO CO •H CO td -p o td CO O •H W -P a d o 5H -H CD -P di td o O OiOO tn O CD -P rd CD -H O -P d co &H CT1 •H H & O O fd O CO •H CD H d to -rH CD CO CO CO en -H d - o (D -H O -P -H O I] j li O -P CO tr> d d o u •H -P d •H 5H CO CD •H CO d CM d O, rd CD -P r- CT>CO I rd in 5n • r-~ CD & en > . H rd rt d C T3 O -^ d -H 8 td -P OJ d O, CD X g CD G G 5H -H CD O 0 O ^ -P O U 0 P 5n td •>rH d 3 O 13 •P O tn g •H (U CO (D rd XI rt H CD td CD 5H -P CD -P 13 -H r^ I PH g O to cj d •H -P fd d CM •H g d H rd CD P CD H-l . i G 0 CD -P P (1) O g CD O CD 5H CD d CO O CO Q td rH CD td >t 5n un (Ti rd CD -P 0) td o rH "4-1 •H O td CO 0 CO 10 Dj-P tO u < rH rd CD CXrH a g fd H 5H 0) (U o IT) CJ CM -H ^ S PM rH O •w- d 13 o d m u rd O CD - O co CD -H 4-1 tn O CJ fd o rd 5H CO D- 0) g > H td i—i •H U d u -H fd d g 3 o d o d ouo o 13 H QJ CD td O co rd O o PQ •H O tnco O 5H CD d CD P CD rt 678 ------- C. Economic Impacts Rosebud County's economy currently is dominated by agriculture, especially ranching, which accounted for 33 percent of all 1972 earnings. Coal mining and conversion activities will undoubtedly shift the major portion of income to the extraction and utilities sectors, although most of the land will remain agricultural. Local service and government employment will also expand, especially at Forsyth, the county seat. Based on new employment opportunities in Rosebud County, the overall income distribution will change con- siderably over the course of the scenario (Table 8-35; Figure 8-9). Largely because of the higher paying jobs in energy industries, the $15,000-20,000 category should expand considerably. However, both the distribution and the median income are strongly influ- enced by construction activity, as e-videnced by the up-and-down effect during the 1980-1990 period. In addition, short-term in- flation will reduce purchasing power at times, a fact disguised by the constant dollar computation. The scenario energy developments will result in local business increases similar to but substantially greater than the increases resulting from the recent construction of Colstrip Units 1 and 2. However, Billings and Miles City should receive much of the whole- sale and retail expansion from Rosebud County population growth2 (Table 8-36, Figure 8-10). Since Montana has no sales taxes, the economic benefits to these market centers will be primarily indi- rect, coming in the form of increased employment and new businesses. ^.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Local Area Personal Income." Survey of Current Business, Vol. 54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75. 2University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research. A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and Northeastern Wyoming.Missoula,Mont.:University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research, 1974, p. 69; Johnson, Maxine C., and Randle V. White. Colstrip, Montana; The Fiscal Effects of Recent Coal Development and an Evaluation of the Com- munity's Ability to Handle Further Expansion.Washington, B.C.: U.S.,Department of the Interior,Office of Minerals Policy Devel- opment, 1975, p. 56; and Polzin, Paul E. Water Use and Coal Devel- opment in Eastern Montana. Bozeman, Mont.!Montana State Univer- sity, Joint Water Resources Research Center, 1974. 679 ------- O o o CN I in r^ cn O O Q D m W CO 8 o fa H cn E-i n D fd PQ rH H rH A O EH T) to H in Q r- cn O 4-1 O O 12 H £ O Q -H W -P EH M U O w a i-} O O M in ro I oo 0 0 o in cn cn o cn cn in 00 cn o oo cn in r~ cn INCOME VD OO O O CTi O r~ rH rH 00 ^t rH 0 00 rH CN O CN O 0 0 -d1 c rd xl 4-> cn CD •H- OO in o cn ID O •^ r- o 0 cn o oo [-- 0 r- H H en cn cn in 1 0 0 0 •^r 0 in o o m o CN i~O o ^D VD o in in 0 •r 00 o Cn cn cn F~ I 0 o o UD i-D OO O H OO O 0 cn O in cn o 0 OO 0 r~- o rH cn Cn sD o ,000-over in CN lian Household CD a 0 0 VD rH o 00 r-~ ^ rH O in iH rH o cn r~- H 0 cn •^ ^ iH O •* oo cn :ome (dollar) e H O H rd CD >i U -P xi g cn G M SH G CD O O O ------- s-t ns Q ID more than 25,000 15,000- 25,000 12,000- 15,000 10,000- 12,000 8,000- 10,000 6 ,000- 8,000 4,000- 6,000 less than 4,000 .066 .196 .113 .116 .107 .084 .117 .202 \ •, .109 .334 .113 .101 .080 .055 .078 ^^H^^ .130 ••' .-•• .079 .290 .120 113 .095 .066 .090 .148 '•• '•-.. O82 .342 .123 .110 .090 .062 .074 117 .. -. '.. • .._ .096 .396 .124 .105 .081 .050 .059 090 fi • • • ' 085 .399 .128 109 .086 .050 .058 086 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 8-9: PROJECTED ANNUAL INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR ROSEBUD COUNTY, 1975-2000 681 ------- Billings Miles City 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 8-10: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR BILLINGS AND MILES CITY, 1975-2000 682 ------- TABLE 8-36: PROJECTED POPULATION FOR BILLINGS AREA AND MILES CITY, 1975-2000 YEAR 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000' BILLINGS 75,000 78,400 82,000 86,400 89,800 92,800 MILES CITY 9,200 9,900 10,700 12,200 13,800 15,000 Rosebud County finances have been studied extensively,1 and an analysis specific to this scenario follows in the section on fiscal impacts. The Forsyth water and sewage treatment facilities are currently used to capacity (only primary sewage treatment is available), and an expansion of the system is being studied.2 As is common for small communities, the expenditure for such facili- ties is the largest single category of capital requirements (Table 8-37). The major period of expenditure need in Forsyth occurs after 1985, and especially in the early 1990's. Ashland, which currently has no water system, will require about $8 million to meet demands in the 1988-1993 period. However, temporary facili- ties might be used at some savings. To meet projected needs, municipal operating expenditures in Forsyth and Ashland must increase five-fold by 2000, the larger in- creases occurring in the late 1980's and early 1990's (Table 8-38), ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation and Center for Interdisciplinary Studies. Anticipated Effects of Major Coal Development on Public Services, Costs, and Revenues in Six" Selected Counties.Denver,Colo.:Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974; and Johnson, Maxine C., and Randle V. White. Colstrip, Montana; The Fiscal Effects of Recent Coal Development and an Evaluation of the Community's Ability to Handle Further Expansion.Washington,D.C.:U.S.,Department of the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975. 2Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Im- pacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted Com- munities in Region VIII. Denver, Colo.: Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council,1975; and U.S., Department of Agriculture, Com- mittee for Rural Development. 1975 Situation Statement: Rosebud- Treasure Counties. Forsyth, Mont.:Department of Agriculture, 1975, p. 84. 683 ------- r- ro I oo 1 0 ro o cn o cn CN rH 1 ro 00 O"\ oo cn Cn rH rH 1 00 ro oo oo cn Cn rH rH 1 ro O 00 oo cn CF\ i™H rH 1 0 in oo r^ cn O^ nH rH £ 0 O W EH i 4-> XI in rO -P SH !S O O EM 0 O o o CJ O O 0 in o m CN V V VD CN 0 O ro oo in rH O 0 rH r- in rH cd cu Cn ro (U cn T3 q rO 42 T3 SH 5n C (U CU rO -P XI rH (0 -P X! S 0 cn cu p rrj G rO tn -H in >i iH •d >i to ^ x: ro a C < tn cu o M tn 3 rH Cn (0 •H • 4H CU JX\| T) 3 4-> cn cu in D rrj C rO [ _"[ rrj C m -P C CU g CX o rH CU £> cu Q rH rrj C o •H Cn (U 05 .. ^t j_i -P cn rj 'd Cj H CU rH C/1 rH g C O CU 5-1 Q 4-1 tn C rH in C u O -p g o 0 CQ C 0 cn -P u rO g' H O •H g O C o u H O -p cn C O •H -P rj rH o O tO X -P X -H E3 a cn 0 X! • o 1 ^_^ 0 -P U C cu u ll ll cu cu rj; CU cu Q >1 Cn ^_i 0) C w cu . cn i-l in OH t-3 " >1 5-i X) CU 3 'd tO CU 'd cn c 3 •H tO h3 U o •H -p tO cu M U CU M • •^ T3 "^ C< 1 fO ro "=r cn y • 5H a to in m cu r — T? cn 3 rH rH CJ C -P O CJ SH -H a-n X) CU 3 cj a •H i — 1 rd O C a ro «. - , — . -^ -p -p C C cu cu 0 U • X! 4-) !>-i cn SH O EM O -P CU rH Q tO U •H rH a a tO • d c fO iH X! tn i 'd cu -P u cu a x cu cu X! -P tn •H 00 00 cn rH O 684 ------- TABLE 8-38: PROJECTED OPERATING EXPENDITURES OF FORSYTH AND ASHLAND, 1980-2000 (in dollars above 1975 level) YEAR 1980 1983 1988 1993 1995 2000 1974 Budget FORSYTH 458,000 632,000 841,000 1,100,000 948,000 1,109,000 214,353 ASHLAND 95,000 131,000 577,000 530,000 426,000 522,000 Unknown Based on a figure of $120 per capita (1975 dollars) broken down as follows: streets and roads (25 percent), health and hospitals (14 percent), police (7 percent), fire protection (12 percent), parks and recreation (6 percent), libraries (4 percent), administration (10 per- cent) , sanitation and sewage (10 percent), and other (12 percent). See THK Associates, Inc. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry: Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974, p. 30~I All figures from that source are inflated to 1975 dollars. These figures will be high estimates for Forsyth because some of these services are provided by county funds. Not known. Ashland is an unincorporated community. The provision of necessary services for construction-related pop- ulations will be a major problem because property taxes will not provide revenue until the construction is completed. This has been the case in Rosebud County recently.1 The large revenue benefits from energy development discussed in other studies2 have only begun to be felt in the towns; they ^.S., Department of Agriculture, Committee for Rural Develop- ment. 1975 Situation Statement: Rosebud-Treasure Counties. Forsyth") Mont. : Department of Agriculture, 1975 , 63 . 2Johnson, Maxine C. , and Randle V. White. Colstrip, Montana; The Fiscal Effects of Recent Coal Development and an Evaluation of the Community's Ability to Handle Further Expansion. Washington, D.C. : U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975. 685 ------- may only partially compensate local municipalities which are forced to absorb large population increases but do not include the energy facilities within their area of taxation. This is likely to be the case for Forsyth, Ashland, and other Rosebud County towns, where newcomers employed in energy development must live.1 What little land ranchers and other landowners make available for housing will continue to escalate in price, and general inflation for goods and services will be felt. These problems will be worse during inten- sive construction periods when greater demands will be placed on local markets.2 D. Fiscal Impacts In this section, the tax rates currently in effect in Rosebud County are applied to project incremental revenues likely to arise from energy development. Some taxes, such as severance taxes, ap- ply directly to the energy developments; others, such as personal income taxes, derive indirectly. Some taxes are local, some are state, and some are collected by the state for local distribution. (1) Coal Mines License Tax3 This excise tax will probably capture more revenue from energy development than any other tax. The rate will depend on heat con- tent and contract price, but it will generally be 30 percent of sales price at the mine.1 The Resource Indemnity Trust Tax is also based on the value of minerals extracted, in this case at a 0.5 percent rate.5 Receipts are placed in a trust which will accumulate to If Colstrip remains a company town, then the company could directly provide many facilities from internal funds, without having to go through the tax system. See Section 8.4.8 below. 2A description of recent experience in the area is found in the University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research. A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and Northeastern Wyoming.Missoula,Mont.:University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research, 1974. 3Montana Revised Codes Annotated, Title 84, Chapter 13 (Cumu- lative Supplement 1976); Johnson, Maxine C., and Randle V. White. Colstrip, Montana; The Fiscal Effects of Recent Coal Development and an Evaluation of the Community's Ability to Handle Further Ex- pansion^Washington,D.C.:U.S. ,Department of theInterior, Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, pp. 43-46. ^For heat content greater than 7,000 Btu's per pound and prices greater than $1.40 per ton. 5Montana Revised Codes Annotated, Title 84, Chapter 70 (Cumu- lative Supplement 1976). 686 ------- TABLE 8-39: SEVERANCE TAX REVENUES FROM COLSTRIP SCENARIO ENERGY DEVELOPMENT3 (millions of 1975 dollars) YEAR 1978 1980 1983 1985 1988 1990 1995 2000 GROSS RECEIPTS 0 0 80 171 239 292 438 652 TAX REVENUES 0 0 24.4 52.2 72.9 89.1 133.6 198.9 The Coal Mines License Tax accounts for 98.4 percent of the tax revenues in the table, at 30 percent of the mine revenues. The remainder is the Resource Indemnity Trust Tax, at 0.5 percent of mine revenues. $100 million with certain restrictions. This scenario simply cred- its the funds to the state legislature's discretion. Projected prices for western coal indicate a rise from $9.52 per ton in 1983 to $13.94 by 2001 (all figures in 1975 currency).1 The Colstrip scenario calls for new coal production to reach 47 million tons per year by 2000. Multiplying these quantities to- gether and then by 30.5 percent, annual mine and tax revenues are projected (Table 8-39) . (2) Property Taxes Several forms of property are taxed by a host of governmental units. This analysis concentrates on the energy facilities, asso- ciated municipal construction, and "gross proceeds" of mines. It is assumed that energy facilities in the scenario will be taxed during construction in proportion to the resources invested as of each date. The actual value of facilities subject to property tax would thus grow continuously (Table 8-40) . It can be seen in the table that the energy developments, rather than the resulting res- idential and commercial growth, will dominate the tax assessment rolls. Edward, et al . A Western Regional Energy Develop- ment Study, Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford Research Institute, 1976. 687 ------- TABLE 8-40: PROJECTED PROPERTY VALUATION IN ROSEBUD COUNTY (millions of 1975 dollars) YEAR 1978 1980 1983 1985 1988 1990 1995 2000 FACILITIES 55 276 998 1,135 1,831 2,051 3,605 4,862 MINERALS 0 0 80 171 239 292 438 642 RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL3 4 11 23 15 54 31 79 96 Based on $3,800 per capita and population growth in Rosebud County. See Polzin, Paul E. Water Use and Coal Development in Eastern Montana. Bozeman, Mont.: Montana State Uni- ver'sity, Joint Water Resources Research Center, 1974, p. 142. Taxable values are derived from these actual values by a ser- ies of statutorially defined ratios. Most property receives a multiplier of 0.12, so that the recent mill levy of 94.42 is equiv- alent to a rate of 1.133 percent of full market value.1 Applying the tax rates to the taxable values, and using the current formulas for apportionment, likely property tax receipts are summarized in Table 8-41. These revenues far exceed previous annual receipts in Rosebud County. At the current time (after some energy-related development has already been felt), the county's total of nonutility property has a taxable value of $15.3 million. By contrast, energy facili- ties will grow to a taxable value of $584 million by 2000, and gross proceeds will reach $117 million. Clearly, these facilities Pollution control equipment has a multiplier of 0.028, and gross proceeds from strip mining have a multiplier of 18. We do not make separate provisions for control equipment in these esti- mates, however. See Johnson, Maxine C., and Randle V. White. Colstrip, Montana: The Fiscal Effects of Recent Coal Development and an Evaluation of the Community's Ability to Handle Further Expansion. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975. 688 ------- TABLE 8-41: PROJECTED PROPERTY TAX RECEIPTS IN ROSEBUD COUNTY (millions of 1975 dollars) CATEGORY State County General Purposes County for Schools School District 19 Total Levy 1978 0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 1980 0.2 0.8 1.9 0.7 3.6 1983 0.8 3.3 6.3 2.5 12.9 1985 0.9 4.1 7.9 3.1 16.0 1988 1.5 6.5 12.6 4.9 25.5 1990 1.7 7.4 14.4 5.6 29.1 1995 2.9 12.5 24.3 9.5 49.2 2000 3.9 16.6 32.3 12.6 65.4 will become the mainstay of local public finances, especially for the school district which depends almost entirely on property taxes A comparison with Table 8-34 shows that the school districts in Rosebud County can enjoy substantial surpluses if current tax rates are maintained. The valuation of facilities will probably take on political overtones, considering its crucial role in determining local bud- gets. The tax assessment process, conducted at the state level, may enjoy some insulation from local political pressures, but these facilities are so capital-intensive as to have a noticeable impact even on the state's tax rolls. Also, there is a distinct possibility that rates may be re- duced, especially those of the property tax and coal mines sever- ance tax. Otherwise (if no major spending programs were intro- duced) , large surpluses would build up in state and county trea- suries. Moreover, the 30 percent rate of the license tax far ex- ceeds rates in neighboring states (about 6 percent in North Dakota and 3.5 percent in Wyoming). Thus, this high rate might eventually cause a loss of some development to other states. (3) State Income Tax1 The state income tax in Montana is a graduated tax and there- fore depends on the income distribution (Table 8-35; Figure 8-9). Including $3,600 in exemptions and deductions for a family of four, the average tax collected per household will be in the range of Montana Revised Codes Annotated, Title 84, Chapter 49 (1947) . 689 ------- TABLE 8-42: NEW STATE INCOME TAX RECEIPTS FROM ENERGY DEVELOPMENT (millions of 1975 dollars) YEAR 1978 1980 1983 1985 1988 1990 1995 2000 NEW HOUSEHOLDS IN ROSEBUD COUNTY 425 1,230 1,955 1,305 5,460 3,090 7,680 9,660 TOTAL NEW PERSONAL INCOME 5.7 16.6 23.0 15.4 71.8 40.6 113.5 141.0 NEW TAX RECEIPTS3 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.0 4.7 2.6 7.4 9.2 At 6.5 percent of new personal income. 6.5-6.6 percent of household income. Taking into account the in- come distribution in Table 8-35, the total new income tax revenue is shown in Table 8-42. (4) Distribution The state receives all funds generated by electrical producers' and income taxes, and a portion of the mill levy, as detailed pre- viously (Table 8-41). The county government will receive new funds from the coal tax and the mill levy. All new funds for schools will come from mill levies (by the county and by the districts). Further, the Coal Mines License Tax and the Resource Indemnity Trust Tax are distributed as follows beginning in 1979: 41 percent goes to the state general fund; 34.5 percent goes to local impact and education trust funds (of which 3/7 may be disbursed in grants); 21.1 percent goes to state-earmarked purposes (public schools equalization receives 46.5 percent of that portion, park acquisi- tion receives 23.2 percent, energy research receives 18.6 percent, and resource development bonds support receives 11.6 percent); and 3.4 percent goes to the originating county.1 The distribution of new revenues from all taxes is summarized in Table 8-43. The property valuation data presented in Table 8-40 showed that less than 2 percent of new ad_ valorem revenues will come from residential and commercial development. Since the energy facili- ties will be located in unincorporated areas, municipalities will 1 These figures differ from language in RCM 84-1309.1 because the License Tax and Resource Indemnity Trust Tax have been com- bined for ease of calculation. 690 ------- TABLE 8-43: DISTRIBUTION OF NEW TAX REVENUES FROM COLSTRIP SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT (millions of 1975 dollars) YEAR 1978 1980 1983 1985 1988 1990 1995 2000 STATE GENERAL PURPOSE 0.4 1.3 14.3 31.1 43.9 48.6 72.9 102.5 STATE EARMARKED FUNDS 0 0 5.1 11 15.4 18.8 28.2 42 STATE GRANTS TO LOCAL 0 0 3.6 7.7 10.8 13.2 19.8 29.4 COUNTY GENERAL PURPOSES 0.2 1 4.1 5.9 ' 9 10.4 17 23.4 SCHOOLS (county and district) 0.4 2.6 8.8 11 17.5 21 33.8 44. 9 be excluded from the larger part of new property taxes. Combined with the fact that there is no sales tax in Montana, this means that towns such as Forsyth must depend to a great extent on allo- cations from higher levels of government. But if all the state impact aid funds are channeled back to their county of origin, then all local needs can be met, with sur- pluses, after 1981. In the first few years, the fiscal balance will be as shown in Table 8-44. E. Social and Cultural Impacts A distinctive aspect of the Rosebud County area is the contin- ued opposition of many area ranchers to strip mining and other en- ergy development. The arguments are largely economic, since the land and water supplies are crucial to ranching operations, but also include aesthetics (focusing on transmission lines) and com- binations of the two (including air pollution effects on visibility and on vegetation).1 1"Colstrip Testimony." The Plains Truth, Vol. 5 (February/ March 1976), pp. 11-16; see also Montana, Department of Natural Re- sources and Conservation, Energy Planning Division. Draft Environ- mental Impact Statement on Colstrip Electric Generating Units 3 and 4, 500 Kilovolt Transmission Lines and Associated Facilities. Helena, Mont.: Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Con- servation, 1974, Vol. 3-B, pp. 789-825; University of Montana, In- stitute for Social Science Research. A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.:University of Montana,Institute for Social Science Re- search, 1974, pp. 27-35. 691 ------- ffi EH o EH in ^ oo W 01 U H i-q t~- to (< CTl rH ffl rH rH O U ^ m H 5 O1 CM O -H U Q UH W Q O EH P H DH o o W EH O • • 0 0 rH rH rH 0 • • o o m o o o in CU rji ti ^ 3 rH -H -P ro -P •H -P rO rO -H SH C D-i CU CU tO p.. 5 ChU O CU X 52 W ,ro ro t~~ CO r- in rH VD U3 ^ • • ro -^ i — I 01 VO C5 • • ro ^ o ro ro CN c^ p^ in • rH O ro 00 • 0 o ^ ^. o O \£> rH • 0 0 0 0) O O -0 •H f£ 10 >i CU CU -P 3 -P C G rO 3 CU -P O S > CO U CU CU 2 « 01 • CN rH 00 oo • r" ^, ro • [-• ^ CO ro ^^ — 2 ^ ^ m — m in -^ CN , — \| ^ in o • — 4J •H O in -H 3 4H rH CU Qj 'Ci !H — 3 CO I C 0) -H CO T3 0) 5H -P 3 rd O ^ CD C C -p C 3 O 0) -P .C -H 4J & C 0) -H -P rd T3 -t-1 0) en -P rrj CU r< X! (U -P 0) 0) T3 M OJ rd 'C -H CO > (U O 3 J-l fi a <1) > 0) 0 X! U -H CO rj 4J . w cn -=r • O -P rd fi O -H -H -P O Q) CU "J -p • (0 ro Q) O co CU • H CJ1 CO T3 rH •H H • •H W in -P ro O r< 0) N --^ O r( cu -H cu X! H f, EH rO -P co CO 3 SH rO 692 ------- Newcomers to the Rosebud County area have not been uniformly impressed with living conditions in the area. Land for housing subdivisions is not available, even in small lots, and mobile home living is the primary alternative. Even in the company-owned town of Colstrip, few families actually own their homes.1 More unset- tling to many families is the separation within Colstrip between construction workers, nonadministrative operation workers, and administrators and supervisors; there is no evidence that this will be eliminated in the future. As a result, a number of workers, especially those with families, have chosen to live in Forsyth,2 and this can be expected to continue. The major social impacts on long-time residents will be on the ranchers, who perceive their way of life and values threatened by coal development. For all, local inflation will be a problem when limited competition allows rising prices to take advantage of high incomes. The quality of life in Rosebud County varies with residential location. Dissatisfaction with medical services, housing avail- ability, and streets and roads is common in both Colstrip and For- syth. Residents of Colstrip have been quite dissatisfied with entertainment and shopping facilities, resulting in an overall characterization of the town as "isolated" and "dull." In Forsyth, these services are more readily available, and1dissatisfactions are more regularly expressed regarding housing quality. People re- cently living in Forsyth tend to have positive descriptions about the town, characterizing it as "friendly" and "happy." Forsyth1s established town atmosphere appears to be much preferred over other locations in Rosebud County.3 JFor descriptions of Colstrip, see Myhra, David. "Colstrip, Montana—the Modern Company Town." Coal Age, Vol. 80 (May 1975), pp. 54-57; Schmechel, W.P. "Developments at Western Energy Com- pany's Rosebud Mine," in Clark, Wilson F., ed. Proceedings of the Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 1. Billings, Mont.: East- ern Montana College, Montana Academy of Sciences, 1975, pp. 60-66. 2University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research. A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and Northeastern Wyoming"! Missoula, Mont. : University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research, 1974, pp. 16-18, 43-45. 3Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Com- munity Report: Forsyth and Colstrip, Montana.Washington,D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976, pp. 28-32, 56-61. 693 ------- Medical care will continue to be a pressing need in the county, as in most of nonmetropolitan America. At least 16 more physicians will be needed by 2000 just to maintain the current average of one physician per 1,500 people. Twice that number would be needed to meet national averages. As elsewhere in the West and in rural areas, attracting physicians will be difficult if not impossible. A subsidized group practice with guaranteed working hours would be a possible inducement for practicing physicians. New doctors could also be influenced to locate in small towns through loan forgive- ness programs.1 F. Political and Governmental Impacts As noted in the preceding fiscal analysis, the state and the school districts generally will have sufficient revenues to re- spond to energy-related impacts. However, the net fiscal status of local units of government will depend largely on administrative and policy decisions made at the state and county levels of govern- ment and by the private owners of Colstrip. For example, Forsyth, which will probably be the major recipient of newcomers, must de- pend on state-level impact aid and county revenues because the energy facilities in this scenario are located in unincorporated areas. Distribution decisions of this nature become even more critical because Montana has no sales tax. Funding decisions about facilities and services at Colstrip will be up to the discretion of its administrators, as is the case for any company town. Administrators will have wide latitude in the way they provide services or amenities. In addition, workers on energy developments not participated in by the Western Energy Company may not be allowed to live in Colstrip as long as the com- pany owns the town. Colstrip' s ultimate incorporation is not scheduled, and even if it should occur early enough for the town to absorb new residents, the usual strains caused by service de- mands associated with rapid growth would arise. Decisions in both regards will also influence the number of people locating in other communities . Actions by the Montana Coal Board clearly will be instrumental in determining whether financial problems in communities outside the immediate area of the mines will be handled adequately. If all Montana state impact funds are channeled back to their county of origin, then fiscal demands for the town of Forsyth can be met, with surpluses, after 1981. During 1976-1981, deficits will be experienced, most notably in 1978 ($550,000) and 1979 ($500,000). Besides funneling state revenues back to Forsyth, two additional factors can be brought to bear on the "lead time" problem experienced Sinclair. Physician Distribution and Rural Access to Medical Services, R-1887-HEW. Santa Monica, Calif.: Rand Corporation, 1976 . 694 ------- in the short term. First, according to state law, county commis- sioners can request prepayment of taxes on a new industrial facil- ity, not to exceed three times the estimated property tax due the year the facility is completed.1 These advance funds would provide immediate local impact assistance. Second, the state can use sev- erance tax revenues generated in other parts of the state, just as Rosebud's revenues can later be sent to areas beginning their growth in the 1980s. In fact, Montana already has distributed $3.96 million in such revenues to Rosebud and Big Horn Counties as of mid-1976. This aid is presently helping to reduce financial hardship in Forsyth, Colstrip, and Ashland.2 Another government impact category where money appears to be one of the principal problems is law enforcement. Funds are needed for manpower and equipment to adequately handle the large projected influx of people, especially during the construction phase of de- velopment. At present, the counties are levying all they can (at least all that is politically feasible) to assist in meeting the needs of their localities. Local revenues are being supplemented by revenue sharing grants and other federal sources. Police pro- tection in both Rosebud and Treasure Counties is a consolidated city-county effort and, in each, is administered by the Sheriff's office. Officers have jurisdiction over their entire county, in- cluding rural areas, city properties, and unincorporated towns. In the near future, inadequate protection for Colstrip and Ashland may force incorporation of these towns and formation of their own police departments.3 The most important political impacts appear to be related to decisions concerning land use in the area. Local governing bodies in Montana are required by law to adopt subdivision regulations which conform to minimum standards, including: a requirement for environmental assessments; analysis of possible social and economic impacts; and dedication of land for open space (parks) or payment of cash in lieu of land.4 In addition, a 1975 amendment to the Montana Subdivision and Platting Act establishes specific "public interest" criteria which county commissioners must consider and respond to before taking action on a subdivision application, Montana Revised Codes Annotated § 84-41-105 (Cumulative Sup- plement 1975). 201d West Regional Commission Bulletin, Vol. 3 (September 1, 1976), p. 4. 3U.S., Department of Agriculture, Committee for Rural Develop- ment. 1975 Situation Statement; Rosebud-Treasure Counties. For- syth, Mont.:Department of Agriculture,1975, pp.83-84. ^Montana Revised Codes Annotated §§ 11-3859 through 11-3876 (Cumulative Supplement 1975). 695 ------- including expressed public opinion and potential social and envi- ronmental effects.1 The majority of the people in Rosebud County are very con- cerned about the balance between social costs of industrial growth and related economic gains, and they want to play .a role in the planning and decisionmaking process for further development.2 Con- troversy over planning and zoning decisions may become more pro- nounced as the area population increases. This is particularly significant since Rosebud County's zoning laws and regulations con- strain the availability of land for subdivision purposes, forcing most new residents to locate in existing towns. The resultant ex- pansion of the towns to a more urban character will be difficult for some long-time residents to accept.3 Others will enjoy the greater range of goods and services available. The county, which as already noted receives much of the taxation benefit from energy development, will continue its adaptation to more populated condi- tions by expanding roads and cooperating with the local communities. These decisions do not always rest well with the landowners, nearly all of whom are ranchers.1 8.4.5 Summary of Social and Economic Impacts Manpower requirements and the taxes levied on the energy fa- cilities are major causes of social and economic impacts. For the mines, manpower requirements for operation exceed peak construction manpower requirements. However, the reverse is true for the con- version facilities, i.e., more labor is required for construction than for operation. In combination, total manpower requirements for each mine-conversion facility combination increase from the first year when construction begins, peaks, and then declines as 1This amendment should provide a forum for the public in im- portant growth-related decisions; however, it also raises the po- tential for political conflict. 2U.S., Department of Agriculture, Committee for Rural Develop- ment. 1975 Situation Statement; Rosebud-Treasure Counties. Forsyth^Mont. : Department of Agriculture, 1975, p~. 59. 3 Ibid., pp. 57-59. 4For example, the decision to build a new road between Col- strip and Forsyth was opposed by area ranchers, who reportedly prefer unpaved roads because they "discourage nosey tourists and cattle thieves." See University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research. A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and Northeastern Wyoming.Missoula, Mont.:Uni- versity of Montana,Institutefor Social Science Research, 1974, p. 74. 696 ------- construction activity ceases. Total manpower required for opera- tion of the Synthoil facility and its associated mine is more than three times that of other mine-plant combinations. A property tax, which is tied to capital costs, and a sever- ance tax and royalty payments, which are tied to the value of the coal, generate revenue for the state and local government. Capi- tal costs of the conversion facilities and mines hypothesized for the Colstrip scenario range (in millions of 1975 dollars) from about 1,150 (mine-gasification plant facility) to 2,170 (mine- Synthoil plant facility). The property tax rate in Montana is about 1.19 percent but is not collected when a facility is located on an Indian reservation. Currently, there is no sales tax in Montana, but a severance tax on coal of 30.5 percent is divided be- tween the state and local governments. State and local governments also receive 50 percent of the royalty payments which are 12.5 per- cent of the value of federally owned coal. However, all royalties are retained by Indian tribes when coal is on Indian reservations. If all facilities hypothesized in the Colstrip scenario are built, the Rosebud County population will increase by about 25,000 people by the year 2000. The largest population increases are ex- pected in Forsyth, which will grow six-fold during the scenario period to 13,500. Mobile homes will be the major housing type throughout the period, reflecting the unavailability of land for home construction. School enrollments will grow slowly until about 1990 when rapid growth will take place. The expenditure require- ments for school districts follow the same pattern, suggesting that lead times may be easier to deal with in Rosebud County. Local area incomes will change along with the shift in eco- nomic activity. Greater reliance on energy sectors will raise median incomes 48 percent by 2000 and even more during construction booms. These incomes will likely induce local inflation, espe- cially in housing. Miles City and Billings will receive a signi- ficant amount of the wholesale and retail activity from Rosebud County development. Population-related government expenditures follow the trend of population growth, with the greatest need occurring in the early 1990's. Of particular importance will be the water and sewage treatment facilities, which will require over $19 million in capi- tal expenditures by 2000. Although the state and the school dis- tricts will generally have sufficient funds to respond to impacts, the municipalities are dependent on coal tax funds and actions by the state Coal Board for adequate revenues for local services. Rancher opposition to coal development in Rosebud County will probably grow as additional grazing land is strip-mined. The com- pany-owned town of Colstrip provides an uncertain governmental problem through potential prohibitions on living within the town while working nearby. Rosebud County's planning capacity and 697 ------- regulatory ability appear able to constrain the type of unplanned sprawl occurring in some areas in the West. 8.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 8.5.1 Introduction The area considered for ecological impacts in the Colstrip scenario extends from the Bighorn Mountains in the southwest, east- ward to the Tongue River, and north to the Yellowstone River. Most of the landscape consists of rolling hills broken by more rugged uplands and dissected by several tributaries to the Yellowstone. Elevations range from 2,700 feet at Forsyth to 5,200 feet in the Little Wolf Mountains. The climate is semiarid with extreme annual variations in temperature and occasional violent storms which, to- gether with soil moisture and topography, largely determine the abundance and distribution of the biota.1 Agricultural practices, particularly livestock grazing and sagebrush eradication programs, are important influences on the ecosystem. 8.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions The terrestrial ecosystem is characterized by two major bio- logical communities: ponderosa pine and juniper woodlands; and the more gently rolling sagebrush grasslands of lower elevations. In addition to these, floodplains and streambanks support a dis- tinctive riparian vegetation. Table 8-45 lists species character- istic of these community types. Although vertebrate wildlife range across all three of these vegetational types, unifying them into a single ecosystem, many species have seasonal preferences, moving in response to the availability of shelter and forage in winter and succulent vegetation in summer.2 Rare and endangered species include the peregrine falcon and bald eagle; the black-footed ferret may also be present. The diversity of vegetation is related to small-scale topog- raphic variabilities, such as rock outcrops where fissures hold pockets of soil and water for trees. The mixture of vegetation in turn supports a variety of wildlife. The least abundant riparian Backer, Paul E. Rehabilitation Potentials and Limitations of Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great Plains,General Technical Report INT-14.Ogden, Utah:U.S., Department of Agriculture, For- est Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 1974. 2For example, mule deer and antelope tend to use all three types of vegetation, although exhibiting a preference for woodland and sagebrush respectively. The coyote, a major predator, and the deer mouse, an important prey species, are also found in all types of habitats. 698 ------- TABLE 8-45: SELECTED CHARACTERISTIC SPECIES OF MAIN COMMUNITIES, COLSTRIP SCENARIO COMMUNITY CHARACTERISTIC PLANTS CHARACTERISTIC ANIMALS Sagebrush Grassland Green needlegrass Needle-and-thread grass Western wheatgrass Blue grass Big sage Silver sage Pronghorn antelope Whitetailed jack- rabbit Badger Western meadowlark Sage grouse Short-horned lizard Pine Woodland Ponderosa pine Rocky mountain juniper Bluebunch wheatgrass Sideoats grass Snowberry Goldenrod Mule deer Porcupine Bobcat Ground squirrel species Great horned owl Red-shafted flicker Turkey Sharptail grouse Streamsides (Riparian) Plains cottonwood Green ash Willow Wild currant Bluegrass Foxtail Dock Whitetail deer Raccoon Little brown bat Red fox Shorebirds (e.g., killdeer) Yellowthroat Ringneck pheasant Leopard frog habitat is probably the most critical to the maintenance of overall ecosystem diversity, as this type is used (at least seasonally) by most of the area's vertebrate species. Its extent has been re- duced by irrigated agriculture, especially in the large floodplains of the Yellowstone, Bighorn, and Tongue Rivers. Rivers support a varied and diverse aquatic fauna and supply important breeding and migration habitat for waterfowl. Fish pop- ulations are generally dominated by nongame species such as bull- heads, goldeye, carp, suckers, shubs, minnows, and dace. Game fishes in the area include sauger and channel catfish; trout and bass have been introduced. Three native game species of particular importance in the Yellowstone and Tongue River are the paddlefish, 699 ------- shovelnose sturgeon, and pallid sturgeon, which enter the rivers in the spring to spawn. A total of 49 species of fish have been recorded in the Yellowstone in Montana.l The Bighorn Mountains are covered with a variety of conif- erous forests, zoned by altitude and topography. Alpine meadows are scattered over the highest elevations. The animal life of the Bighorns is accordingly diverse; game animals include elk, mule deer, black bear, mountain lion, bighorn sheep, antelope, white- tailed deer, and moose. Most of the big game animals are limited by winter range. Several uncommon species requiring special man- agement practices include the wolverine, pine marten, and spotted bat. 2 8.5.3 Factors Producing Impacts Four factors associated with construction and operation of the scenario facilities (power plant, Lurgi plant, Synthane plant, Syn- thoil plant, and their associated mines) can cause ecological im- pacts: land use, population increases, water use and water pollu- tion, and air quality changes. With the exception of land use, the quantities of each of these factors associated with the scenario facilities were given in previous sections of this chapter. Land- use quantities are given in this section, and the others are summa- rized. Land use by each of the facilities proposed for the Col- strip scenario is given in Table 8-46. The amount of land used during the lifetime of each facility (30 years) ranges from about 8,000 (gasification plant-mine combination) to 12,600 (power plant- mine combination) acres. Manpower requirements associated with construction and oper- ation of the scenario energy facilities will cause an increase in the urban population in the scenario area. Peak manpower require- ments for the facilities range from 2,859 for the power plant and mine to about 5,200 for each of the other facilities. After con- struction is completed, manpower required for operation is about 1,000 for the power, Lurgi, and Synthane plants and mines and 3,487 for the Synthoil plant and mine. JPeterman, Larry G., and Michael H. Haddix. "Preliminary Fishery Investigations on the Lower Yellowstone River," in Clark, Wilson F., ed. Proceedings of the Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 2: Aquatic Ecosystems Section. Billings, Mont.: Eastern Montana College, 1975, p. 99. 2 In addition, the flammulated owl, American osprey, prairie falcon, grayling, greater sandhill crane, and gyrfalcon have also been described as requiring special management by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 700 ------- TABLE 8-46: LAND USE BY SCENARIO FACILITIES FACILITY LAND USE ACRES/YEAR ACRES/30 YEARS Conversion Facilities Power Plant (3,000 MWe) Lurgi or Synthane Gasification Plant (250 MMcfd) Synthoil Plant (100,000 bbl/day) Associated Surface Coal Mines For Power Plant (16.8 MMtpy) For Lurgi Plant (9.6 MMtpy) For Synthane Plant (8.4 MMtpy) For Synthoil Plant (12.0 MMtpy) 340 240 240 250 2,400 805 2,060 10,200 7,200 7,200 2,500 MWe = megawatt-electric MMcfd = million cubic feet per day bbl/day = barrels per day MMtpy = million tons per year The land used by the surface coal mines will increase every year by the amounts given in the table for 30 years, the lifetime of the facilities. However, the land occupied by the plants will not vary after construction is completed. Water requirements for the scenario facilities operating at the expected load factor range from about 6,283 acre-ft/yr (Lurgi plant) to 26,600 acre-ft/yr (power plant) assuming the facilities are high wet cooled. The water source will be the Yellowstone River which has an average flow of 8,800,000 acre-ft/yr and minimum flow of 3,720,000 acre-ft/yr1 at Miles City (Table 8-13). Effluents from the energy facilities will be ponded and will contaminate sur- face water or groundwater only if pond liners leak or erode. Typ- ical and peak concentrations of criteria pollutants from the power, Lurgi, and Synthane plants will not violate any federal or Montana ambient air standards. Annual concentrations of SOa in the plant vicinity ranges from 0.2 (Lurgi plant) to 2.7 vg/m3 (power plant and mine). Peak concentrations of pollutants from the Synthoil plant will only exceed the 3-hour federal ambient air standard for HC but will do so by a factor of more than 100. 1Minimum flow is 5,135 cfs and is converted to acre-ft/yr here only so that withdrawals by the energy facilities given in acre-ft/ yr can be compared. 701 ------- 8.5.4 Impacts The nature of the ecological impacts caused by these factors depends on the plant and animal community type on which they are imposed. For example, the impact of land use depends on whether sagebrush grassland or pine woodland communities are being used. Some of the land-use trends are now evident or could occur regard- less of energy-related growth. A scenario, which calls for power, Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil plants and their associated mines to be developed according to a specified time schedule (see Table 8-1) , is used here as the vehicle through which the extent of the impacts are explored. Impacts caused by land use, population increases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes are discussed. A. To 1980 During the 1975-1980 period, construction will start on the power plant and mine scheduled to come on-line in 1985. Land use by the energy facilities and urban population is given in Table 8-47. Land use by 1980 by the urban population only totals about 800 acres, about 0.03 percent of the total amount of land in Rose- bud County. Forage which could be produced on this acreage would support 9-18 cows with calves and 1-3 sheep in a year depending on what type of habitat is disturbed by the urban population (Table 8-48) . l For purposes of comparison, a 1974 Census of Agriculture Preliminary Report for Rosebud County indicates a total inventory of 94,500 cattle and calves and 15,245 sheep (including lambs). At the power plant site, direct habitat removal affects most small vertebrate species locally and is not expected to reduce re- gional populations. However, the site area is a wintering area for mule deer and antelope, and the disturbance from construction activity may cause big game species to disperse into adjacent areas. Sharptail and sage grouse courtship and brood-rearing activities could be disturbed or displaced as far as 2 miles from the site. estimate is derived from the carrying capacity of the different vegetation types in acres per Animal Unit Month (AUM) . An AUM is a measure of forage production and represents the amount of forage required to sustain a cow with calf, or five sheep, for a month. Because food habits differ, the unit cannot generally be applied to wildlife. Since the unit has no time dimension, its interpretation in terms of total numbers of livestock depends on whether the range is used seasonally or all year. Carrying capa- cities are: 3.5-7.0 acres/AUM in sagebrush grassland; 3.5-4.0 acres/AUM in pine woodland; and 5.5 acres/AUM in other grassland types. Carrying capacity of 3.5-7.0 acres/AUM was used for this calculation. Payne, G.F. Vegetation Rangeland Types in Montana, Bulletin 671. Bozeman, Mont. : Montana State University, Montana Agricultural Experiment Station, 1973. 702 ------- TABLE 8-47: LAND USE (in acres)' By Energy Facilities Conversion Facilities Power Plant (3,000 MWe) Lurgi Plant (250 MMcfd) Synthane Plant (250 MMcfd) Synthoil Plant (100,000 bbl/day) Associated Surface Coal Mines For Power Plant (16,8 MMtpy) For Lurgi Plant (9.6 MMtpy) For Synthane Plant (8.4 MMtpy) For Synthoil Plant (12.0 MMtpy) Subtotal By Urban Population in Rosebud County Residential Streets Commercial Public and Community Facilities Industry Subtotal Total Land Use Total Land in Rosebud County 3,223,680 1975 430 86 10 27 43 596 596 1980 580 116 14 36 58 804 804 1990 2,400 805 2,040 240 5,485 860 172 21 53 86 1,192 6,677 2000 2,400 805 805 2,060 5,440 2,640 1,440 250 15,840 1,360 272 33 84 136 1,885 17,725 MWe = megawatt-electric MMcfd = million cubic feet per day bbl/day = barrels per day MMtpy = million tons per year Values in each column are cumulative for year given. Acres used by the urban population were calculated using population'estimates in Table 8-31 for Rosebud County assuming: residential land = 50 acres per 1,000 population; streets = 10 acres per 1,000 population; commercial land = 1.2 acres per 1,000 population; public and community facilities = 3.1 acres per 1,000 population; and industry = 5 acres per 1,000 population. Adapted from THK Associates. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry: Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974. 703 ------- TABLE 8-48: POTENTIAL LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION FOREGONE: COLSTRIP SCENARIO3 1980 1990 2000 Past-2000c 1974 Inventory, Rosebud County Loss (% of 1974 Inventory) ACRES LOST 804 6,667 17,725 40,005 ANIMAL EQUIVALENTS13 COW/ CALVES 9- 18 77-154 205-410 462-925 94,499 0.5-1.0 SHEEP 1- 3 12- 24 32- 64 72-143 15,245e 0.5-0.9 Includes land used by plants, associated mines, and urban population. Acres lost does not include land disturbed by: transmission, gas, and water lines to the plants; two new roads to the Synthane and Syn- thoil facility sites; improved highways connecting major new population centers. Assuming carrying capacity is 3.5-7.0 acres on range used all year. Total land use during 30-year facility lifetime. U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1974 Census of Agriculture; Preliminary Report, Rosebud County, Montana. Washington, D.C.: Govern- ment Printing Office, 1976. Includes lambs. Increases in both legal and illegal hunting are typically associated with large construction projects in the West. Poaching will probably center near Colstrip and the construction site, espe- cially since both mule deer and antelope now concentrate there in winter.1 Private landowners have already begun to close their Unlike legitimate hunting, poaching can reduce the breeding stock by taking females and young, which can affect the ability of the population to replace harvested individuals by reproduction. As populations decline, the number of individuals which may be safely harvested by legal hunters is reduced, and legal hunts may be curtailed or even discontinued. 704 ------- lands to hunters and other outdoor recreationists; with the first construction peak, land closure will probably become common. While this action may reduce poaching, it will also focus legitimate big hunting pressure on the nearby Custer and Bighorn National Forests, where hunter success may decline. Manpower required for construc- tion will cause the urban population in Rosebud County to increase by 35 percent over the 1975 population, which will total 11,620 by 1980 (Table 8-31). Ecological impacts associated with population increase, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes associated with energy development will not be significant by 1980. B. To 1990 By 1990, the power and Lurgi plants and their associated sur- face coal mines will be on-line. Land use by 1990 by these energy facilities and the urban population will be about 6,680 acres or about 0.2 percent of the land in Rosebud County (Table 8-47). For- age which could be produced on this land would support 77-154 cows with calves and 12-24 sheep in a year (Table 8-48). Land use by the power plant and mine combination will primarily be sagebrush grassland and pine woodland, and by the Lurgi plant and mine com- bination (sited east of Colstrip), sagebrush, woodland, and pure grassland. The Lurgi plant will not occupy portions of key wild- life ranges. By 1990, major improvement in vehicular access will occur throughout the scenario area. Highway rights-of-way will generally follow the major stream courses in the area and will constitute a major adverse influence on these restricted habitat zones. By 1990, the volume of traffic along large portions of Armells and Rosebud Creeks and the Tongue River will have increased several-fold. Hab- itat removal will affect a variety of small birds, mammals, and amphibians, among them the sharptail grouse and ring-necked pheas- ant. Whitetail deer, largely restricted to valley bottoms, are likely to decline. In particular, the highway following the Tongue River would bisect two mule deer winter concentration areas and an antelope concentration area, increasing road kills and resulting in a slight reduction of the deer and antelope populations. The urban population in Rosebud County will be about 17,160 by 1990, an increase of 100 percent over the 1975 population. This growth in areawide human populations, especially at Colstrip and Forsyth, will contribute to illegal shooting of nongame animals, off-road vehicle (ORV) use, and habitat fragmentation from subdi- vision and strip development. Birds of prey, such as Swainson's hawk and the golden eagle, which frequent roadsides and perch on power or telephone poles, are most vulnerable to shooting. Varmint hunting can indirectly affect the probability of the survival of black-footed ferrets in the area (if they are present), especially 705 ------- if prairie dog populations are reduced.1 Other nontarget species, particularly the Northern kit fox and other beneficial small pred- ators, may also show noticeable declines by 1990. Some local disturbance of big game animals and interference with the breeding and nesting of sharptail and sage grouse may occur. Feral dogs (dogs allowed to run loose and become wild) may threaten local wildlife near population centers. Because the town of Colstrip lies within an area of winter deer and antelope concen- trations, there is a potential for harassment by dogs to develop into a sufficiently important stress to effect a reduction in num- bers,2 beginning as early as 1980, in the absence of additional controls. Water use and water pollution associated with the energy fa- cilities are not expected to cause significant ecological impacts. Growing municipalities in the area may discharge increasing amounts of sewage effluent into surface waters, at least until new systems can be built. Although discharge from Forsyth would flow into the Yellowstone, the amount will be negligible, even in comparison to the historical low-flow in the Yellowstone. Dilution will reduce nutrient concentrations well below levels that might affect aquatic production. However, continued use of septic systems around Col- strip could contaminate groundwater and transfer nutrients into Armells Creek. Although the stream is intermittent, nutrient en- richment could cause algal blooms that reduce the quality of the aquatic environment for fish. Air quality changes associated with energy development are not expected to cause significant ecological impacts. C. To 2000 Construction of the Synthane and Synthoil facilities in the sagebrush grassland of Sarpy Creek Valley occurs between 1990-2000. By 2000 all the scenario facilities will be in operation. Land use by the facilities and the urban population will total 17,725 ]A survey conducted by a consulting firm from 1972 to 1975 in a 10x20-mile rectangle bracketing Colstrip did not detect ferrets. Schwarzkoph, William F., and Raymond R. Austin. "Monitoring Wild- life Parameters Prior to Extensive Strip Mining and Operation of Coal-Fired Steam Generating Plants at Colstrip, Montana," in Clark, Wilson F., ed. Proceedings of the Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 5: Terrestrial Ecosystems Section.Billings,Mont.:East- ern Montana College, 1975, p. 668. 2The net impact of such growth-related stresses is not always to reduce the stability of the population but to lower the propor- tion of the total ("surplus") that can safely be removed by hunting without threatening the balance. 706 ------- acres or about 0.6 percent of the land in Rosebud County (Table 8-47). Forage on this acreage would support 205-410 cows with calves and 32-64 sheep in a year (Table 8-48). These facilities will further fragment wildlife habitat around Colstrip and the Sarpy Creek Valley. The greatest impacts on wildlife will probably be associated with the loss of thickets and woodlands along valleys affected by road construction. Poaching will probably continue to be associated with peaks in construction activity. The combined effects of habitat loss, vehicular traffic, and increased legal and illegal hunting will probably result in at least moderate re- ductions in populations of white-tailed deer and pheasant. A zone of urban influence extending several miles around Colstrip may re- sult in which wildlife will be generally less abundant and diverse, and game species will be uncommon. Although the Synthoil plant on Sarpy Creek will be a more isolated influence, it is sited in an antelope winter concentration area and will probably cause some relocation. However, areawide populations of nongame species with small ranges are not likely to be affected as strongly. Energy-related population increases and resultant urban devel- opment will require a relatively negligible portion of land (about 1,885 acres, Table 8-47) and will be located almost entirely at existing towns. Zoning and subdivision regulations in the county will prevent the rural settlement scatter that is occurring else- where in the West. By 2000, the urban population in Rosebud County will be about 27,170, about a 215 percent increase over the 1975 population. An increase in recreational activities is expected due to this in- creased population. An important feature of the Colstrip scenario is the limited availability of public land open to or suitable for camping, hiking, hunting, fishing, and snowmobile and ORV use. The closest public lands are the two National Forests, Custer in Montana and Bighorn in Wyoming. The greatest potential for damage exists in the Bighorn Na- tional Forest. The forest will probably be a regional focus for recreation for increased populations throughout the entire Powder River resource region. Large areas of the forest are closed to vehicular traffic, or otherwise restricted, in the winter months, which will tend to concentrate ORV and snowmobile use on the re- maining open areas. Wilderness areas will receive heavy foot and horse traffic in the summer months, unless restrictions are placed on the number of visitor days permitted. Although numerous forest species are tolerant of human activity, some species (including elk, pine marten, and bighorn sheep) avoid areas of heavy human activity. Disturbance of these animals may result in a complex pattern of redistribution which could increase competition with other species. For example, if elk are displaced onto lower ele- vation in winter, they may compete with deer. Deer usually decline under these circumstances unless the winter range is underutilized. In addition, subdivision of private lands along the boundaries of the national forest can fragment deer winter range. 707 ------- As fishing increases in the high mountain lakes, the quality of the sport fisheries will decrease, although more intensive stocking programs can help maintain fish populations. However, without careful management of use, relatively fragile vegetation around these lakes may be severely damaged by campers and pack trains, especially above timberline. Smaller wildlife (such as pikas, ground squirrels, and marmots) could also decline in numbers around heavily used areas, especially if dogs are permitted in the high country. Beginning with the opening of the power plant in 1985, the scenario's water demands will be capable of reducing low-flow in the summer months in the Yellowstone River during dry years to a point where some short-term ecological response may become notice- able. The magnitude of such flow reductions would be greater down- stream of the scenario area near the Yellowstone-Missouri conflu- ence than in the withdrawal area. Between Miles City and Sidney, large irrigation withdrawals currently reduce summer low-flows by an amount equivalent to roughly 50 percent of the low-flow of re- cord. Outside the growing season, including the spring runoff period critical to migratory spawners such as the paddlefish and sturgeon, flow near Sidney is appreciably greater than at Miles City. For this reason, even though the impact on summer low-flow could be significant in the lower Yellowstone, no interference with the reproductive patterns of either spring or fall spawning fishes are expected to result from the Colstrip scenario alone. Water removal by the scenario developments for energy facil- ities peaks at 51,000 acre-ft/yr by the end of the scenario time frame. The impact of this use depends on the ecosystem dynamics of the Yellowstone River. Key ecosystem components are presently under intensive study but are not yet sufficiently well known to permit establishment of instream flow requirements.1 Consequently, it is not possible to predict the magnitudes of the ecological con- sequences of reduced summer low-flows. However, possible effects include additional sedimentation to a limited degree during summer, reducing the productive riffle areas crucial to the food supply of most game fishes, and reducing the area of quiet backwaters, island edges, and vegetated banks important for the growth and survival of many juvenile fish.2 These impacts would be temporary, and a Performed by the Montana Department of Natural Resources for the Old West Regional Commission, Dr. Kenneth Rlackburn, Project Coordinator. 2Peterman, Larry G., and Michael H. Haddix. "Preliminary Fishery Investigations on the Lower Yellowstone River," in Clark, Wilson F., ed. Proceedings of the Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 2: Aquatic Ecosystems Section.Billings, Mont.:Eastern Montana College, 1975, p. 99. 708 ------- return to normal flow conditions will permit the ecosystem to restore its balance in subsequent years.1 Dewatering of active mines can affect discharge in springs and seeps, with consequent reduction in the base flow of springs. The severity of the resultant ecological consequences will depend on the scale of the impact and cannot be predicted with certainty. However, the following kinds of impacts could occur if discharge were eliminated over a large portion (for example, 25 percent) of the Rosebud Creek Basin throughout the entire time frame: Reduction in diversity and biomass of the Rosebud Creek ecosystem. The stream is not important as a fishery, but loss of ecosystem productivity would affect terrestrial species such as the raccoon, shorebirds, and waterfowl. Reduction in extent and vigor of riparian vegetation de- pendent on stream underflow. Losses of this type of vege- tation, if extensive, would reduce carrying capacity for all species listed as characteristic of this vegetation type, including white-tailed deer, sharptail grouse, pheasant, muskrat, and mink. Sage grouse brood-rearing areas could also be affected. Reduction in density of smaller wildlife dependent on springs and seeps for watering, including mourning dove and several species of rodents. More drought-resistant forms, such as Ord's kangaroo rat and woodrats, may re- place the species lost. Reduction of runoff, due to impoundment of mine and plant site drainage, affects 6,400 acre-feet of runoff lost to the Sarpy, Armells, and Rosebud Creek drainages. This will combine with that of reduced groundwater discharge to produce the impacts discussed above. By the year 2000, all the scenario facilities will accumulate impounded wastewaters on site. All these waste ponds will contain considerable amounts of carbonate and sulfate salts, together with various trace metals and chemical wastes from demineralizing oper- ations. In addition, wastewaters from coal conversion may contain a variety of toxic organic compounds, especially phenols (a number of organic agents known or thought to be carcinogenic), as well as 1 The Yellowstone is expected to supply water not just for the development of the immediately adjacent coal deposits but for in- dustry as far away as Gillette. Therefore, although the Colstrip scenario in itself is not expected to result in major ecological damage from dewatering, regional water demands could occasion seri- ous stress. The ecological impacts of withdrawls at this scale are discussed in Chapter 12. 709 ------- dissolved hydrogen sulfide and ammonia. These materials could pose a threat to wildlife if they were repeatedly consumed or con- tacted.1 Impoundments made of reclaimed mine spoils and ash might leach heavy metals in waters or be incorporated into aquatic and terrestrial food chains, depending on concentration and food chain links with the terrestrial ecosystem. Even with these conditions met, the resulting ecological impacts would.be local. All the scenario facilities emit air pollutants into the at- mosphere, the greatest quantities coming from the power plant. SOa concentrations may affect vegetation. Acute injury normally re- sults from exposures of a few hours to high levels of SC-2. Short- term field fumigation studies have revealed threshold sensitivi- ties of 1.0-1.5 ppm for range grasses2 and between 1 and 6 ppm for sagebrush and associated shrubs.3 SC>2 damage to white and jack pine has been observed in the field with continous exposure to be- tween 0.13 and 0.5 ppm ambient concentrations.1* Laboratory and field fumigation tests have produced injury in ponderosa Wildlife will probably not drink from these impoundments even though conventional fencing would deter few species. The extreme saltiness and probably unpleasant odors will render these waters unpalatable, especially with clean water available nearby in the water reservoirs at each site. Waterfowl may occasionally land on these ponds, especially during migration, but in the absence of aquatic vegetation or animal life, would not remain long enough for repeated contact with carcinogens to increase the risk of tumor formation. Thus, the toxic and carcinogenic compounds retained in impoundments will probably not constitute an actual hazard to wild- life. 2Tingey, D.T., R.W. Field, and L. Bard. "Physiological Re- sponses of Vegetation to Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions," in Lewis, R.A., N.R. Glass, and A.S. Lefohn, eds. The Bioenviron- mental Impact of Coal-Fired Power Plant, 2nd Interim Report: Colstrip, Montana, EPA-600/3-76-013.Corvallis, Oreg.: Corvallis Environmental Research Laboratory, 1976. 3Hill, A.C., et al. "Sensitivity of Native Desert Vegetation to S02 and to S02 and N02 Combined." Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, Vol. 24 (February 1974), pp.153-57. kDreisinger, B.R. "Monitoring Atmospheric Sulfur Dioxide and Correlating Its Effects on Crops and Forests in the Sudbury Area," in Conference on the Impact of Air Pollution on Vegetation: Pro- ceedings .Toronto,Canada:Ontario Department of Energy and Re- sources Management, 1970; and Linzon, S.N. "Damage to Eastern White Pine by Sulfur Dioxide, Semimature-Tissue Needle Blight, and Ozone." Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, Vol. 16 (March 1966), pp. 140-44. 710 ------- pine between 0.4 and 10.0 ppm, depending on the investigator.1 Crops grown in the Colstrip area are largely alfalfa and winter wheat, both of which are sensitive to S02. Acute damage has occur- red in wheat at concentrations of 0.20-0.40 ppm2 and in alfalfa at 0.5 ppm.3 Dispersion modeling indicates that the highest short-term ground-level concentrations experienced, with all facilities-on- line, will be 0.26 ppm (3-hour average) downwind of the power plant. Under most circumstances, concentrations will be at least an order of magnitude less. This maximum level could damage wheat crops, and dispersion conditions producing these high concentrations occur mainly in the winter. Spring brings the most favorable conditions for ventilation. Chronic damage typically occurs when S02 levels are much lower than those required to induce direct injury. Chronic SO2 pollution damage of alfalfa and wheat may be possible downwind of the power plant. Judging from the relatively higher tolerances of native plants to acute S02, these species may be less likely to develop chronic injury symptoms. However, in the absence of appropriate data, the possibility cannot be ruled out. D. After 2000 Land use by the urban population and energy facilities during their 30-year lifetime will total 40,055 acres, about 1.2 percent of the land in Rosebud County (Table 8-47 and 8-48). Over 92 per- cent of Rosebud County is cropland, grazing land, or woodland, and any land use would necessarily reduce the agricultural acreage. The amount of forage which could be produced on 40,055 acres would support 462-925 cows with calves and 72-143 sheep per year, about 0.5-1.0 percent of the 1974 inventory of cows with calves and sheep in Rosebud County (Table 8-48). Additional land bordering on coal A.C., et al. "Sensitivity of Native Desert Vegetation to S02 and to SC>2 and N02 Combined." Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, Vol. 24 (February 1974), pp. 153-57. 2Guderian, R., and H. Van Haut. "Detection of S02 Effects Up- on Plants." Staub-Reinhaltung der Luft, Vol. 30 (1970), pp. 22-35, 3Tingey, D.T., et al. "Vegetation Injury from Interaction of Nitrogen Dioxide and Sulfur Dioxide." Phytopathology, Vol. 61 (December 1971), pp. 1506-11. 711 ------- mining areas may be rendered unsuitable for grazing as a result of odors, pollution, dust, and noise.1 Land leased for coal as of July 1974 covers 3.86 percent of the county (about 129,000 acres), indicating a potentially greater number of surface mines.2 The ultimate impact of mining, which will use 32,100 acres primarily consisting of sagebrush/grasslands, pine forest, and savanna, will depend on the success with which they are reclaimed. Although variable, the overall climate around Colstrip favors reclamation. However, during periods of drought, moisture stress will reduce the success of new plantings and alter the species composition of existing stands.3 Overburden characteristics vary widely among the coal fields of southeastern Montana. While spoils from the existing mine at Colstrip are not excessively saline, overburden at the nearby Decker mine and in the neighboring Otter Creek coal field contains layers which are salty enough to cause problems with the initial establishment of vegetation. At Decker, it has been shown that salinity of the surface spoil is acceptably reduced after the first one or two years, especially if irrigated.4 Although with proper fertilization and surface treatment spoils can be returned to a productive cover of grasses, it has proven more difficult to reestablish woody vegetation equivalent to the preexisting biological community. Ponderosa pine, impor- tant over almost half the total mine areas, will be particularly difficult to restore, both because it requires a long time to ma- ture and because its need for water is generally greater than that of the grasses. Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, Energy Planning Division. Draft Environmental Impact Statement on Colstrip Electric Generating Units 3 and 4, 500 Kilovolt Transmis- sion Lines .and Associated Facilities. Helena, Mont.: Montana De- partment of Natural Resources and Conservation, 1974, pp. 767-70. 2U.S., Department of Agriculture, Committee for Rural Develop- ment. 1975 Situation Statement: Rosebud-Treasure Counties. Forsyth, Mont.: Department of Agriculture, 1975, pp. 46-47. 3Short-term climatic fluctuations in the Colstrip area result in severe droughts lasting two years or more, recurring at one-or- two-decade intervals. Drought cycles of 15-20 years are character- istic of this area, with drier than normal years occurring more frequently than years with above-average precipitation. 4Farmer, E.E., et al. Revegetation Research on the Decker Coal Mine in Southeastern Montana, Research Paper INT-162. Ogden, Utah: U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermoun- tain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 1974. 712 ------- The foregoing factors suggest that reclamation efforts may partially or completely restore grazing values in most years bar- ring problems with excess salts in the soil, but will not restore the original native cover.1 Thus, the original ecosystem of mined areas will probably not be restored, since both topographic and vegetational diversity are critical factors. The degree to which this grazing value is restored will depend on climatic patterns, spoil characteristics, and grazing management. Therefore, the 32,100 acres mined in the scenario should be considered a long- term loss to wildlife such as antelope, sage grouse, and a large number of songbirds which depend on shrubby cover at some critical point in their life cycle. Small amounts of cropland in the Armells Creek Valley will be removed by strip mining and community expansion; some agricultural land will also be preempted by the construction of new roads in the Tongue River and Rosebud Creek valleys. While exact acreage fig- ures are not known, the total will be well below one percent of Rosebud County's 1974 cropland total of 157,400 acres. Toward the end of the scenario, and after 2000, salinity increases brought on by contamination of groundwater by mine leaching could reduce the extent of irrigated agriculture locally near the mines. However, salinities would have to rise between 10- and 100-fold to enter the range toxic to crops; this is unlikely even in the immediate vicinity of the contamination source. Ecological impacts after 2000 caused by urban population, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes will be similar to those described prior to 2000. 8.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts Four factors associated with construction and operation of the scenario facilities can significantly affect the ecological impacts of energy development: land use, population increases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes. Land use by the urban population and energy facilities during the thirty-year life- time of the facilities will total 40,055 acres, 1.2 percent of the land in Rosebud County. By 2000, the urban population in Rosebud County will be about 27,120, a 215 percent increase over the 1975 population. Water requirements for the energy facilities operating at the expected load factor (assuming high wet cooling) will be :The largely discounted agricultural practice of repeated summer fallowing has resulted in the loss of some 380,000 acres of cropland in Montana because of the deposition of salts in the sur- face soil. Salts dissolved from the lower layers are carried up- ward through evaporation into the surface. A similar problem could arise in irrigated or fallowed spoil material. Mine reclamation experience in this region has not covered a time span long enough for such a phenomenon to be observed. 713 ------- 51,000 acre-ft/yr which represents 0.6 percent of the average flow and 1.4 percent of the minimum flow of their water source, the Yellowstone River. This river is also the water source for munic- ipalities in the scenario area (except for Colstrip which uses groundwater). Effluents from the energy facilities will be ponded to prevent water contamination. Increased wastewater from the in- creased population will require new sewage treatment facilities. The SO2 level due to plant emissions may cause acute damage to wheat crops and/or chronic damage to wheat and alfalfa crops. Table 8-49 summarizes expected population trends in selected ani- mal species over the scenario period. However, climatic fluctu- ations characteristic of southeastern Montana can, and probably will, modify these predictions considerably either by imposing ecosystem-wide stress (drought, winter conditions) or especially benign conditions (abundant spring and summer rainfall, easy winters). Noticeable impacts on game animal populations arising from scenario activities will not develop until the first construction peak in the 1980-1990 decade. Recent wildlife population trends of the Colstrip area have been downward since 1971, and these trends have been projected arbitrarily over the remainder of the 1975-1980 period. The greatest local impact on mule deer populations will arise from the encroachment of mining and residential-urban growth on wintering habitat near Colstrip. In addition, poaching may be ex- pected to have moderate to serious consequences. By the 1990-2000 decade, only scattered groups of deer may continue to winter there. Roads passing directly through wintering areas may also result in increases in road kills, possibly followed by changed distribution patterns. The cumulative impact of all these influences is ex- pected to be a moderate decline in deer numbers throughout the scenario area, especially around Colstrip. Antelope around Colstrip will be affected by the same stresses as mule deer but to a somewhat greater degree because more winter- ing habitat is affected. The continued presence of large expanses of superior antelope habitat north of the Yellowstone will tend to reduce the regional significance of this loss. However, by 1995, antelope may decline to very low levels in Rosebud County. Of the three major game birds in the Colstrip area, pheasants will suffer most from the loss of habitat and sage grouse least. Loss of springs and seeps and reduced stream flow due to mine de- watering and runoff interception may also eliminate some brood- rearing habitat for these species. However, closure of private lands to hunting may counteract these trends to the extent that, JThe following discussion does not include the Bighorn Mountains. 714 ------- I 00 W o o o rsi o a\ C! rH 0 CO CTl c o c i i •H -H 01 M JJ 30) ra 01 "O JJ rH n c c 3 ra -H -n a oi s O IH Tl a u c o) c ra o 01 -H ra re C rH - ra a T! C XI 01 C O M -H M JJ jj u rH a • c 3 ra -H oi S rl C IH e O JJ O JJ 0 •O 01 -rl 01 -rl C JJ rH JJ T! O "H 0 « 0) 0 T3 U U 10 Tf JJ ra u re jj d 01 01 re 01 U X Tl U u JJ e x c c IH ra jj o •rl 3 JO UH . 0 >1 O! )H rl rH - C Cl 01 X! 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O U (Ti <» I 00 o o o IN O Cfi tn o o> rH 01 rH 10 3 •O •H > •H •a c •H UH O 01 0) 0 rH UH O £, JJ .rl rH •H XI (0 0 tJ1 H c Qi-H .LI •a o 0) 0 01 £ 10 01 0) IH E U O C rl 1 •0 •H •H C •H rH UH 10 o o- 01 01 rH 01 rH O -H rH E • Q) O CP rH h C XI UH -rl •rl JJ 01 01 O 01 rH O O 10 £ [X 3 01 ID C ifl £ U 01 rH JJ -H J ^ c •H JJ O O £ ui E O rl UH 01 rH 10 3 T3 •H •o c •H UH O 01 01 O rH • C 01 O rH -H XI 01 10 -H XI rH O -t IH O CM O 1 "O 1 1 • H 4J -H > 0 rH •H O rH •a £ o C 01 O •H -H 0) UH 1C rH 0 tJl-H 01 -W 0) 01 O) rH 0 •H J c CP 0 U -rl 10 b. 01 rH U Cd 1 JJ Qj 1C ^i Jj^ (D tn c 1) T3 U IH Or! rH. 10 iH ID -H O 10 rH 01 VI JJ CM C CO WH SB z i o> •c rH 0 o JJ Cn C •H C 3 ID IH C •H 01 XI • 01 01 10 0) 01 •H rl O 10 01 QJ g £ -H •u 10 O rH m o •o "C 0) 1 Oi E 01 C C -rl IH 5 • •H « 0 01 E rH >, H 01 o 10 tji 01 C O E 1 01 OH rH 10 01 rH kj C >irH 01 tT> O rH O * •H 3 > UH JJ 01 01 O 10 C N C • -H 01 •H - 01 C Tl E TJ 10 O C •H C 01 rH 10 rH Ifl IH O JJ u rH ifl u a 01 (7> c 10 £ u 01 rH JJ JJ •H J UH O 1 -01 E en 01 01 -H C C 10 -rl 01 Oi tn* 13 M C 0 10 -H IH £ rl IH JJ tJ o> 3 -H 01 £ XI 3 E JJ •H to IH * 10 o) o in rH 3 UH 10 O 01 01 UH rH rl U -H -H 10 0 O rH 01 ID rH E 01 n] UH -H O-H O Ifl CO r-t is 0 >i u jj a-u o) H K -rl rl O rH 01 U -H 0 U 10 C E ri 01 IH Me CLQ cri >, 1 rH rH 0 10 0) >l-rl rl C rH O rl 0) s a 3 ^ c 01 01 XI 0 C 0 UH en JJ JJ o: C M JJ c 10 0 -rl 0) 0) 01 S E 'tl rl C • Vj O O 10 O T3 Oi U IH •H c a -a JJ ifl >iJJ 0) 10 rH GJ 10 C £ C IH e 10 -H •H fl 3 C 10 E 01 JJ - -H i-i •H C X DI E U rH -H 01 C 0 01 U E JJ -H -a IH 01 c ra £ 0 01 rH JJ JJ •H c 01 0) 3 JJ 01 • XI 01 o c c O 01 •rl 3 JJ rH 3 UH XI C •H O H 0 JJ 01 -H •H rl TJ 3 o UH 01 O 01 •H C E o •rl 0) JJ £ U JJ -H IH Tl ±J c 01 10 o 01 -H rH U XI •rt Ul 0) 01 01 rH O -H 0> rH XI Ifl 0) u •H JJ 0 c o c ^"1 rH • .Q (U (Q Pp Xl c 25 (^ O • 01 c (0 £ O O Z 01 £ JJ C •H 01 U • C >t 10 JJ C -H •H U 0 01 •O 0) rH C -H •H E 01 3 01 0 10 rH 01 (U o C 10 •H C 3 JJ 10 £ UH tn •H £ rH 01 01 -H UH 01 rH rH X! rH •rl 10 Ul rl 01 01 O > CM 0 01 r-i XI 10 01 U •H JJ O c o c r>1 rH • J2 (U ffl D1 XI C o ro rl £ CM U • 01 c 10 £ U o z rH 0) iH 01 £ Oi 0) H JJ > • CP 01 M IH -rl VJ C rH - -H UH 05 01 B O rH c 3 O .X UH£C>-H CO* 0) O OUT3OIO inUS CPCJJ 3 C-HOIJJ 'b coto HB igino ioc IHOIOI -0 OUC^E-HJJ £3 oisc aJj JJ-HCIOIO-U oo -POO Uri (OCn-HrHlHO -Htl ICrHJJ (03 Liocouu B;O SrHtn un •H rH -H 01 01 4) •a o E K D x C 0 M W 716 ------- while local declines may be observed in the immediate vicinity of the plant sites and Colstrip, overall county populations may re- main largely unaffected. Three species currently listed as threatened by the Fish and Wildlife Service may be found in the Colstrip area. The bald eagle and peregrine falcon are seasonal visitors; both are susceptible to illegal shooting, but the impact of such individual losses on overall population levels is probably outweighed by influences on breeding habitat elsewhere. Although apparently absent from the immediate Colstrip vicin- ity, the black-footed ferret has been confirmed in Rosebud County as late as 1972. The main threat to these animals from the sce- nario developments will probably be through destruction of prairie dog towns utilized by ferrets. Intensive study in the areas where most of the scenario facilities will be sited has so far failed to discover the animals. The prairie falcon, recently removed from the Fish and Wild- life Service list, is an uncommon resident which may breed in the scenario area. These birds are also subject to illegal shooting; if they breed in the area, they could, unlike the other two raptor species, decline because of shooting losses. Several species of mammals and fish can be considered as in- dicators of ecological change. Reclaimed mine areas may, for a time, take on the character of early successional communities and support a fauna dominated by rodents. Richardson's ground squirrel, which feeds to a large extent on weedy forbs, may be an indicator of the formation of this kind of community, provided that the tex- ture of the soil permits burrowing. Species characteristic of ma- ture vegetation include the prairie vole and cottontail rabbit; the first requires relatively dense stands of grasses, while the second prefers brushy areas. Their absence is an indication of the degree to which the vegetation has been modified from its original structure, and their return will signal at least partial success in restoring wildlife values. Dewatering in the Yellowstone is expected to result in only minor and temporary changes in the eco- system. Such change as may be observed would probably first be indicated by a restriction in the distribution of the stonecat, a species especially sensitive to flow conditions, below Miles City. The somewhat more pervasive ecological change which might result from cumulative water withdrawals for industry outside the immedi- ate scenario area would be signaled by an increase in the dominance of such generalist fish species as carp, catfish, and suckers. Table 8-50 ranks the major impacts on the ecosystem into three classes, based on their severity and extent. Class C includes im- pacts which are expected to be very localized (within a few square miles) and thus will not create measurable changes in the stability of areawide animal populations. Thus, direct habitat removal is 717 ------- TABLE 8-50: SUMMARY OF MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS IMPACT CATEGORY 1975-1980 1980-2000 Class A Fragmentation of deer and antelope wintering areas by facility, town siting, mining Continued fragmentation of sagebrush/grassland habitat Fragmentation of riparian habitats Class B Illegal shooting Illegal shooting Increased recreational pressure on national forests Class C Grazing losses Loss of irrigated cropland Grazing losses Loss of irrigated cropland Water withdrawal from Yellow- stone River Acute SO2 damage to crops Uncertain Contamination of Armells Creek by sewage from septic systems Contamination of Armells Creek by sewage from septic systems Chronic SO2 damage to sensitive vegetation Local flow depletions of springs and seeps from mine dewatering Contamination of groundwater from mine spoil leaching SO2 = sulfur dioxide included until 1980, as are alterations in groundwater discharge. Water withdrawals from the Yellowstone (for this section) are also placed in Class C because of the infrequency with- which they would occasion adverse impacts and because the natural adaptive charac- teristics of the ecosystem are considered capable of compensating for such infrequent disturbances. Class B impacts include those that affect animal populations which range over larger areas (the size of national forests or counties). This class includes game poaching and illegal shooting 718 ------- of nongame species, such as raptors, and growing demands on the recreational resources of the two nearby national forests. Class A impacts include those which are considered to be the key factors involved in the projected declines of animal popula- tions discussed above. Habitat loss and fragmentation, particu- larly in limited streamside habitats and winter concentration areas, are key aspects of the scenario that cannot be materially reduced. Because critical wildlife habitats are affected, the severity of the impact cannot be much lessened by management of remaining lands, as can be done with livestock grazing. The lim- itations of geology and climate on reclamation also curtail the potential restoration of wildlife values on mined lands. 8.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT COLSTRIP The primary benefits of the hypothetical energy developments in the Colstrip area will be the production and shipment of 500 million cubic feet of synthetic natural gas per day, 100,000 bar- rels per day of synthetic crude oil, and 3,000 megawatts of elec- tricity. However, these benefits clearly will accrue primarily to people outside the area. Local benefits are principally eco- nomic and include increased tax revenues for state as well as county and local governments, increased retail and wholesale trade, and secondary economic development. New revenues will provide for expansion of municipal services, such as water distribution and treatment systems, police and fire protection services, and im- proved health care facilities. Local governments will generally be hard-pressed initially to provide the services for the increased population. Existing school, housing, health, and public safety services will be overwhelmed at the outset by the influx of workers and their families. For example, in Rosebud County a fourfold increase in population by 2000 will result in increases in both the demand for housing and for educational facilities. Revenues produced by the development will be adequate to pay for the educa- tion demands, but municipal services in the 1975-1980 time,frame will be inadequate for the construction population as revenues do not improve until the operation phase in the mid-1980"s. Social and economic impacts associated with energy development in the Colstrip area tend to be a function of the labor and capital intensity of development and, when multiple facilities are involved, of scheduling their construction. These factors determine the pace and extent of migration of people to the scenario area as well as the financial and managerial capability of local governments to provide services and facilities for the increased population. Labor forces increase the population directly and indirectly. More labor is required for construction of the facilities than for operation; thus suitable scheduling of facility construction can minimize pop- ulation instability. Of the facilities hypothesized for the Colstrip scenario, the power plant-mine combination is the least labor-intensive and the Synthoil facility is the most. Property 719 ------- taxes which are tied to the capital cost of the energy facilities and a severance tax and royalty payments which are tied to the value of the coal will generate revenue for local, state, and fed- eral governments. Solutions to problems concerning who gets the benefits of revenue from the energy facilities and who provides services needed by the increased population in the scenario area involves all levels of government and their ability to relate to each other. Montana's state government provides financial assis- tance to communities for the expansion of public services and pub- lic facilities. The state gives the communities a portion of the state revenue obtained from mineral leases and severance taxes. The fact that communities in the scenario area are small and do not have well developed planning capabilities will make social and economic impacts difficult to handle. These impacts would be mit- igated if people who have migrated out of the area returned and were hired along with some local unemployed laborers to meet the manpower requirements for energy facility construction and opera- tion. Many of the negative impacts associated with increased popu- lation could be minimized if coal rather than electricity and syn- thetic oil and gas was exported from the Colstrip area. Construc- tion impacts would be reduced while revenue benefits to the state from producing the resource would continue. However, elimination of the conversion facilities would substantially decrease both cap- ital investment and additions to the property tax base which pro- vide for expanded local public services. Alternative rates of de- velopment or scheduling affect the social impacts from construction phases of the energy developments. If the construction phases of the different facilities were coordinated, the minor boom and bust cycles could be avoided. This would be a significant advantage for planning housing and educational 'facilities. Air quality impacts associated with energy development are related primarily to quantities of pollutants emitted by the fa- cilities and to diffuse emissions associated with population in- creases. The greatest concentrations of particulates, NOX, and S02 are emitted by the power plant and the least by the gasifica- tion plant; but, the Synthoil plant produces higher HC concentra- tions than the other conversion facilities. Air quality impacts will be limited to the violation of the federal ambient HC stan- dard. The violation will occur in connection with the Synthoil facility and the increased urban growth at Colstrip. All other federal standards, as well as EPA1s PSD increments, will be met. Control of fugitive HC at Colstrip from the Synthoil facility is difficult to achieve short of locating the plant elsewhere. Water impacts associated with energy development in the Col- strip area are a function of the water required and effluents pro- duced by energy facilities and associated population. The power plant requires the most; the Lurgi requires the least. Water de- mand for the population is significant but less than that for the 720 ------- facilities. Effluents from synthetic fuels plants are similar in amounts but different in composition. Effluents from coal gasifi- cation plants are primarily ash, and from power plants are nearly equal amounts of ash and FGD sludge. Effluents from all the fa- cilities will be ponded to prevent contamination of surface water and groundwater in the scenario area. Water quality impacts may be minimized by achieving FWPCA zero discharge goals. The most significant water quality impact will be associated with municipal water treatment facilities. It is doubtful that Forsyth, the only community in Rosebud County which currently has a wastewater treatment facility, will be able to expand its facility at the rate necessary to match the projected population growth. The other communities rely on septic tanks, which will pose a hazard to groundwater quality. This may ulti- mately pose a special hazard to the Colstrip residents because they will be relying on groundwater resources for their municipal water needs. Meeting the water requirements of energy development will take a small fraction of the average flow of the Yellowstone River, but this may be significant during periods of low flow. Groundwater aquifer systems in the Colstrip area may be depleted as a result of Colstrip's increasing municipal requirements, coal mine dewa- tering practices, and decreased surface runoff, which will in- crease the infiltration rate. Flow reduction in the Yellowstone can be reduced by wet/dry or dry cooling of the power plants at greater economic costs but with savings of up to 64 percent of the water demand for the en- ergy facilities. A minimum of water from the Yellowstone would be used if the coal were shipped out of the region before conver- sion. Ecological impacts associated with energy development in the Colstrip area are a function of land use, population increases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes. Land use by surface mining activities will be greater than that by energy facility structures and by the population. However, much of the land used by mining can be reclaimed. The average rainfall (10-20 inches annually) and well-developed soil in the scenario area makes revegetation likely. However, when and if the original plant com- munity will be reestablished is highly uncertain. Habitat fragmen- tation and stress induced by increased recreational activities will adversely affect wildlife and some species of game animals. Eco- logical impacts associated with water use and water pollution, and air quality changes are not expected to be significant in the Colstrip area. 721 ------- CHAPTER 9 THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE BEULAH AREA 9.1 INTRODUCTION Although energy development proposed for the Beulah area will take place in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean Counties in west- central North Dakota, most development is centered around Beulah in Mercer County (Figure 9-1). This development consists of five surface coal mines that will produce from 10-20 million tons per year, a 3,000 megawatt-electric (MWe) mine-mouth electric genera- tion plant, and four coal gasification plants, each capable of producing 250 million standard cubic feet per day. The location of these facilities is shown in Figure 9-2. Although some of the electricity and gas will be distributed within North Dakota, most of the energy will be shipped to demand centers farther eastward via gas pipelines and electrical transmission lines. Construction of these facilities began in 1975, and all the facil- ities will be fully operational by 2000. The technologies to be deployed and the timetable for their deployment are presented in Table 9-1.l In all four impact sections of this chapter (air, water, social and economic, and ecological), the factors that produce impacts are identified and discussed separately for each facility type. In the air and water sections, the impacts caused by those factors are also discussed separately for each facility type and, in combination, for a scenario in which all facilities are con- structed according to the scenario schedule. In the social and economic and ecological sections, only the combined impacts of the scenario are discussed. This distinction is made because social, economic, and ecological effects are, for the most part, higher order impacts. Consequently, facility-by-facility impact discussions would have been repetitive in nearly every respect. 1While this hypothetical development may parallel development proposed by Baukol-Noonan, Minnkota Power Cooperative, Knife River Coal Mining, Consolidation Coal, Montana-Dakota Utilities, Coteau Properties, American Natural Gas, Basin Electric Power Cooperative, United Power Association, Falkirk Mining, and others, the devel- opment identified here is hypothetical. As with the others, this scenario was used to structure the assessment of a particular com- bination of technologies and existing conditions. 722 ------- w u c/3 W PQ H ffi I CTi O 723 ------- 724 ------- TABLE 9-1: RESOURCE AND HYPOTHESIZED FACILITIES AT BEULAH Resources Coala (billions of tons) Resources 2 Proved Reserves 1.6 Technologies Extraction p,-.-a 1 WDd .L Five surface mines of varying capacity using draglines Conversion One 3,000 MWe power plant consis- ting of four 750 MWe turbine gen- erators; 34% plant efficiency; 80% efficient limestone scrubbers; 99% efficient electrostatic precip- itator, and wet forced-draft cool- ing towers Two Lurgi coal gasification plants operating at 73% thermal effi- ciency; nickel-catalyzed methana- tion process; Glaus plant HjS re- moval; and wet forced-draft cool- ing towers Two Synthane coal gasification plants operating at 80% effi- ciency; nickel-catalyzed methana- tion process; Glaus plant HaS re- moval; wet forced-draft cooling towers Transportation Gas Two 30-inch pipelines Electricity Four 500 kV lines CHARACTERISTICS u Coalb Heat Content 7,070 Btu's/lb Moisture 36 % Volatile Matter 40 % Fixed Carbon 32 % Ash 6 % Sulfur 0.8% FACILITY SIZE 19 . 2 MMtpy 10.8 MMtpy 10 . 8 MMtpy 9.6 MMtpy 9.6 MMtpy 750 MWe 750 MWe 1,500 MWe 250 MMscfd 250 MMscfd 250 MMscfd 250 MMscfd 500 kV 500 kV 500 kV (2 lines) COMPLETION DATA 1980 1982 1987 1995 2000 1977 1979 1980 1982 1987 1995 2000 1982 1995 1977 1979 1980 FACILITY SERVICED Power Plant Lurgi Lurgi Synthane Synthane Power Plant Power Plant Power Plant Lurgi Lurgi Synthane Synthane Lurgi Synthane Power Plant Power Plant Power Plant Btu1s/lb = British thermal units per pound MMtpy = million tons per year MWe = megawatt-electric MMscfd = million standard cubic feet per day HzS = hydrogen sulfide kV = kilovolts Anderson, Donald L. Regional Analysis of the U.S. Electric Power Industry, Vol.4A: Coal Resources in the United States, for U.S. Energy Research and Development Admin- istration. Springfield, Va.: National Technical Information Service, 1975. Ctvrtnicek, T.E., S.J. Rusek, and C.W. Sandy. Evaluation of Low-Sulfur Western Coal Characteristics, Utilization, and Combustion Experience, EPA-650/2-75-046, Con- tract No. 68-02-1302. Dayton, Ohio: Monsanto Research Corporation, 1975. 725 ------- The three-county area is generally characterized by low unemployment, farming, and .privately owned lands. Aside from agriculture, the remainder of the labor force is distributed mostly in the service and trade industries and government ser- vices. Manufacturing has been extremely limited. The reliance on agriculture has resulted in a steadily shrinking population (30 percent smaller in 1970 than in 1950) . The topography is primarily gently rolling prairies; the climate is semiarid with extreme seasonal variations in tempera- ture. Much of the past ecological diversity has recently given way to intensive livestock grazing and cultivation, and aquatic habitats have been modified by reservoirs. Groundwater and sur- face water are available in the area, the latter primarily from the Missouri River and the Garrison Reservoir. Air quality is generally good with good dispersion conditions prevailing throughout the year. Selected characteristics of the area are summarized in Table 9-2. Elaborations of these characteristics are introduced as required to explain the impact analyses re- ported in this chapter. 9.2 AIR IMPACTS1 9.2.1 Existing Conditions A. Background Pollutants Air quality in the Beulah area is currently affected by four lignite-fired power plants ranging from 13.5 MWe to 23.5 MWe. Measurements of criteria pollutant2 concentrations taken at Bismarck, North Dakota,3 do not indicate violations of any federal or state standards for particulates, sulfur dioxide (SOz), or nitrogen oxides (NOX). Based on these measurements, annual average background levels chosen as inputs to the air The federal standards referred to in this section are those promulgated prior to the revisions mandated by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685. 2Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air quality standards are in force: carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, NOX, oxidants, particulates, and S02- 3U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Missouri Region. ANG Coal Gasification Company; North Dakota Project; Draft Environmental Statement.Billings,Mont.: Bureau of Reclamation, 1977. 726 ------- TABLE 9-2: SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BEULAH AREA Environment Elevation Precipitation (annual) Temperatures January minimum July maximum Vegetation Social and Economic Land Ownership Land Use Population Density Unemployment Income County Government City (Beulah) Government Taxation County Revenues (1972) 1,700-2,200 feet 17 inches average annually 86°F Mixed-grass prairie with stream-side woodlands Private ownership in excess of 90% 97% agriculture 5.9 per square mile 3.6% $11,270 per capita annual Board of Commissioners Mayor-Council Primarily property tax $750,000 Characteristics for Mercer County, 1975 dollars. dispersion models are: particulates, 39; S02, 14; and nitrogen dioxide (N02), 4.1 B. Meteorological Conditions The worst dispersion conditions for the Beulah area are associated with stable air conditions, low wind speeds (less 1 These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's best professional judgement. They are used as the best estimates of the concentrations to be expected at any particular time. Mea- surements of hydrocarbons (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO) are not available in the rural areas. However, high-background HC levels have been measured at other rural locations in the West and may occur' here. Background CO levels are assumed relatively low. Measurements of long-range visibility in the area are hot avail- able, but the average is estimated to be 60 miles. 727 ------- than 5-10 miles per hour) , persistent wind direction, and relatively low mixing depths.1 These conditions are likely to in- crease concentrations of pollutants from both ground level and elevated sources.2 Since worst-case conditions differ at each facility location, predicted annual average pollutant levels vary among locations even if pollutant sources are identical. Pro- longed periods of air stagnation are uncommon in the Beulah area because of moderate to strong winds, relatively high mixing depths, and a general lack of stagnating high-pressure systems. Meteorological conditions in the area are generally unfavorable for pollution dispersion about 30 percent of the time. Hence, plume impaction3 and limited mixing of plumes caused by air inver- sions at plume height can be expected with some regularity.1 Favorable dispersion conditions associated with moderate winds and large mixing depths are expected less than 15 percent of the time. The pollution dispersion potential for the Beulah area may be expected to vary considerably with the season and time of day. Fall and winter mornings are most frequently associated with poor dispersion due largely to lower wind speeds and mixing depths. 9.2.2 Factors Producing Impacts The emission sources in the Beulah scenario which will pro- duce air impacts are a power plant, four gasification facilities (two Lurgi and two Synthane) , supporting surface mines, and those sources associated with population increases. The focus of this section is on emissions of criteria pollutants from the energy facilities.5 Table 9-3 lists the amounts of the five criteria pollutants emitted by each of the three types of facilities. In fixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upward boundary of pollution dispersion. ^Ground-level sources include towns and strip mines that emit pollutants close to ground level. Elevated sources are stack emissions . 3 Plume impaction occurs when stack plumes impinge on elevated terrain because of limited atmospheric mixing and stable air con- ditions . National Climatic Center. Wind Dispersion by Pasquill Stability Classes, Star Program for Selected U.S. Citie¥T Ashville, N.C.: National Climatic Center, 1975. 5Air impacts associated with population increases are dis- cussed below (Section 9.2.3) since those impacts relate to the scenario, which includes all facilities constructed according to the hypothesized schedule. 728 ------- TABLE 9-3: EMISSIONS FROM FACILITIES (pounds per hour) FACILITY3 Power Plant Mine Plant Lurgi Mine Plant Synthane Mine Plant P ARTICULATES 24b 3,012 7b N 8b 8 S02 16 13,848 5 516 5 3,524 NOX 215 21,084- 35,140C 66 649 69 5,052 HC 180 652 8 47d 94d CO 25 2,176 40 N 42 176 S02 = sulfur dioxide N0y = oxides of nitrogen HC = hydrocarbons CO = carbon monoxide N = negligible The Lurgi and Synthane gasification facilities each produce 250 million standard cubic feet per day, and each plant has three stacks. These particulate emissions do not include fugitive dust. Range represents 0 and 40 percent NOX removal by scrubbers. These emissions do not include fugitive HC. all three cases, most emissions come from the plants rather than the mines. Most mine-related pollution originates from diesel engine combustion products, primarily N0x, hydrocarbons (HC), and particulates. Although dust suppression techniques are hypothe- sized in the scenario, some additional particulates will come from blasting, coal piles, and blowing dust.1 The largest single contributor to total emissions for all pollutants is the power plant. The hypothetical power plant in the Beulah area has four 750-MWe boilers, each with its own xThe effectiveness of current dust suppression practices is uncertain. Separate research being conducted by the Environmental Protection Agency is investigating this question. The problem of fugitive dust is discussed briefly in Chapter 10. 729 ------- stack.l The plant is equipped with an electrostatic precipitator (ESP) which removes 99 percent of the particulates and a scrubber which removes 80 percent of the S02- Scrubber removal of NO is uncertain and is thought to vary from none to 40 percent. The plant has two 75,000-barrel oil storage tanks, with standard floating roof construction, each of which will emit up to 0.7 pound of HC per hour. Table 9-4 lists the amounts of particu- lates, S02, and NOX emitted (per million British thermal units [Btu] of coal burned) from a power plant operating under the con- ditions described above and compares those emissions to the New Source Performance Standards (NSPS).2 SO2 emissions are well below the standard, but particulate emissions just meet the stan- dard; NO emissions violate it. N0x removal of 38 percent is required to just meet NSPS. In order for the power plant to just meet the NSPS for S02, 48 percent efficient SO2 scrubbers (as opposed to the 80 percent hypothesized) removal would be re- quired. 3 The power plant and the two coal conversion facilities are cooled by wet forced-draft cooling towers. Each of the cells in the cooling towers circulates water at a rate of 15,330 gallons per minute (gpm) and emits 0.01 percent of its water as a mist. The circulating water has a total dissolved solids (TDS) content of 4,580 parts per million. This results in a salt emission rate of 29,100 pounds per year for each cell.1* 9.2.3 Impacts This section describes air quality impacts which result from each type of conversion facility (power plant, Lurgi, and Synthane) Stacks are 500 feet high, have an exit diameter of 33.1 feet, mass flow rates of 3.10 x 106 cubic feet per minute, an exit velocity of 60 feet per second, and an exit temperature of 180° Farenheit. 2NSPS limit the amount of a given pollutant a stationary source may emit; the limit is expressed relative to the amount of energy in the fuel burned. 3The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685, § 109, requires both an emissions limitation and a percentage reduction of S02, particulates, and N0x- Revised standards have not yet been established by the Environmental Protection Agency. 4The power plant has 64 cells, the Lurgi plant has 11, and the Synthane plant has 6. 730 ------- TABLE 9-4: COMPARISON OF EMISSIONS FROM POWER PLANT WITH NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS (pounds per million Btu) POWER PLANT Particulates S02 N0xb EMISSION 0.10 0.47 0.72-1.2 NSPSa 1.10 1.2 0.7 NSPS = New Source Performance Standards Btu = British thermal unit = sulfur dioxide NOX = oxides of nitrogen The North Dakota state S02 emission standards are the same as federal. Data from White, Irvin L. , et al. Energy From the West: Energy Re- source Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environ- mental Protection Agency, forth- coming, Chapter 2. Range represents 0 and 40 percent NOX removal by scrubbers. taken separately1 and from a scenario which includes construction of all facilities according to the hypothesized scenario schedule. For the power plant the effect on air quality of hypothesized emission control, alternative emission control, alternative stack heights, and alternative plant sizes are discussed. The focus is on concentrations of criteria pollutants (particulates, SO2, NOa, HC, and carbon monoxide [CO]). See Chapter 10 for a qualitative description of sulfates, other oxidants, fine particulates, long- range visibility, plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, and cooling tower fogging and icing. In all cases, air quality impacts result primarily from the operation rather than the construction of these facilities. Con- struction impacts are limited to periodic increases in particulate Air quality impacts caused by the surface mines are expected to be negligible in comparison with impacts caused by conversion facilities. 731 ------- concentrations due to windblown dust. These may cause periodic violations of 24-hour ambient particulate standards. A. Power Plant Impacts Concentrations of criteria pollutants resulting from power plant emissions depend largely on the extent of emission control imposed. Concentrations resulting from the hypothesized case where control equipment removes 80 percent of the S02 and 99 per- cent of the particulates are discussed first followed by a dis- cussion of the effect of alternative emission controls, alterna- tive stack heights, and alternative plant sizes. (1) Hypothesized Emission Control Table 9-5 summarizes the concentrations of four criteria pollutants predicted to be produced by the power plant (3,000 MWe, 80 percent SO2 removal, and 99 percent particulate removal) and its supporting surface mines. These pollutants (particulates, SO , NO , and HC) are regulated by federal and North Dakota state ambient air quality standards (also shown in Table 9-5). This information shows that the typical and peak concentrations asso- ciated with the plant and with the plant and mine combination will be well below federal ambient standards. However, the North Dakota 1-hour S02 standard will be violated, and the 1-hour N02 standard will be exceeded by a factor of 7. Table 9-5 also lists Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) standards, which are the allowable increments of pollutants that can be added to areas of relatively clean air (i.e., areas with air quality better than that allowed by ambient air stan- dards) . 1 "Class I" is intended to designate the cleanest areas, such as national parks and forests. Typical concentrations of the short-term (less than 24-hour) averaging time for S02 from the power plant and mine combination will exceed allowable Class I increments. In addition, peak concentrations attributable to the power plant and the plant and mine combination will far exceed the 24-hour and 3-hour Class I increments for SO2 (24-hour and 3-hour averaging times). They will be exceeded by a factor greater than 20. The peak S02 concentration for the power plant and the plant and mine combination will also cause the Class II 24-hour and 3-hour increments to be exceeded. Since the plant exceeds some Class I increments, it would have to be located far enough away from any such areas so that emissions will be diluted by atmospheric mixing to allowable con- centrations prior to reaching any Class I area. The distance re- quired for this dilution (which varies by facility type, size, emissions controls, and meteorological conditions) in effect standards apply only to particulates and S02. 732 ------- in i CTi PQ < EH ^ TANDARDS cn tc cn S M EH ^ K EH Z H U Z 0 U Q cn Cu EH z a H CQ S 3> ^< r^ w CM M M crj cn < tj M CO cn < CJ NORTH DAKOTA IX a 2 0 CJ w cn a f% z M Cu \| H CQ fa 12 EH M 2 E (T^ tJ Q E- 2 r-3 Cu !_q ^H CJ Cu >H EH Q 2 0 « p CJ CQ M EH EH 2 < O EH 2 w H rJ C5 J t£ O K > * o^ r- o t-H i— i rH PO CM (Tl CM m IT) O ~H O O ^0 r— i tN m r- i— i (N •— I 1— 1 o o o o o V£> LO O O "^> rH OH rH ""I K rH in o o LD o o r^ VD co ^c> o ^c* CN n i—f >— i o o o r-* \£) m ys (N 00 O^ CM ro T: c r- TT CO TJ- \| CN) • • i— j CO H • »— I T> T3 co r~- ro ro • i CN • * ro ^o ^* ^ O^O pHCNtN^n \|in- 5" CN rH cr\ u> ro ^r CN i-H V£> CO • - fN rH ! f^ CN jy, (^ kD rH T irj m t^i cn "^ ^ CO rH . x: H H W ou 2 M e 0 •H JJ 10 to O •H to CU 4J CU Ti J-> C 10 o •H UH •H C D- -H CO CU UH rCj O -H X n o O -H •H 13 jj CU 3 > KH CU rH to 3 l-u CO II II Q ~ cn o &j cn i to 01 to rH 10 3 C 5 . 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JJ JJ 3 0 tO 01 c o •H JJ a G. 3 w to to O 3 cn jj 0) cn cu to a cu to cu cn to to to •H X! H •o . 13 CU O E cu to cn •H cu c o e co CD c 3 to 01 (0 ,4 CU g 3 C •O o cu to cu X! JJ >K T3 CU o cu to 01 •H _p c cu o to cu a o CO g 3 01 CO (0 . E IB Cft 1 JJ (0 •o cu to 3 D) 18 g CO •rH •a to Tl c 18 JJ to CJ to 3 o x; 1 m cu XI EH a/ 733 ------- establishes a "buffer zone" around Class I areas. Current Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations would require a 75-mile buffer zone between the power plant and a Class I area boundary.l Since there are no current or potential Class I areas within the power plant's "buffer zone," no Class I standards are expected to be violated. In a worst-case situation, expected to occur infrequently, short-term visibility may be reduced from the current background visibility of 60 miles to between 2 and 5 miles, depending on the amount of S02 converted to particulates in the atmosphere.2 (2) Alternative Emission Controls The base case control for the Beulah power plant assumed a S02 scrubber efficiency of 80 percent and an ESP efficiency of 99 percent. The effect on ambient air concentrations of three additional emission control alternatives is illustrated in Table 9-6. These alternatives include a 95 percent efficient S02 scrubber in conjunction with a 99 percent efficient ESP; an 80 percent efficient S02 scrubber without an ESP; and an alternative in which neither a scrubber nor an ESP are utilized. An examination of Table 9-6 reveals the utilization of 95 percent efficient S02 scrubber allows the plant to operate within the Class I PSD increments for S02 emissions. Removal of the scrubber results in violations of both National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Class II PSD increments for SO2. Removal of the ESP also results in .violations of NAAQS and Class II PSD increments for particulates. 1Note that buffer zones around energy facilities will not be symmetric circles. This lack of symmetry is clearly illus- trated by area "wind roses ," which show wind direction patterns and strengths for various areas and seasons. Hence, the direc- tion of PSD areas from energy facilities will be critical to the size of the buffer zone required. Note also that the term buffer zone is in disfavor. We use it because we believe it accurately describes the effect of PSD requirements. 2Short-term visibility impacts were investigated using a "box-type" dispersion model. This particular model assumes that all emissions occurring during a specified time interval are uniformly mixed and confined in a box that is capped by a lid or stable layer aloft. A lid of 500 meters has been used through the analyses. S02 to sulfate conversion rates of 10 percent and 1 percent were modeled. 734 ------- I CTi W m ^ 0"> 3- • — S3 O H EH S EH W U O u EH S3 EH D i_^ j O PH g g H 1 [ 1 O EH JgJ O u 'x-v pL\| CrV) . EH S3 O 2 mm r~ vo VD H cfl CO vp tO o o o o o I"** CN CM o m vein in m VD T CM rH rH * * CN CM m m in rj . • • 52 H rH VD O 1 O O CO 1 VO CM CO CM CM Oi in 1 O rH CM rH rH in U) 1 VO O\ rH H in m CM ro CN CN r~ o o CM r" CTi O^ ^ cO C^ rH rH vo vo CM I m m in 1 •» * 00 H H CO CO -P Q ti & CD < E O\ CTv O O O CD CTi CT> £5 J-\| < U EH 03 fi CO T3 H — M i-3 -— M T3 CO OQ >i (d C P-i <; M T3 (d H E O CO H J -HO I/1OOO &i COMQ) Q) 03 CTiCOOO Pi QQLjW 4J W < -P H S3 CO U -P •H rH (d 3 -p a c fd M U •H -H <] m •H -P C C3 CTi Q) -H •H 03 X! £ m £H < o o CO --H rH T3 C -P rd M o fd C rd -H M 0 TD -4J 0 •H C C -H -P fd (D M rd -P > 0) S3 CO 0) -P M 0) II D-iT3 CO II a < Q < CO s p* M co QJ -P 0) E M rd rH 0) U M CD -P C3 -P •H G O Ai i rd H O MH X3 -P & u x; -P 0) -H rji X! X! -H QJ -P S rH X! 03 -P O ^ -P m rd 0 0) O T3 MH H G X! T3 rd co rd Q) G -P G » O \|3 M r^! -H Xl 3 O •P -H -P rd rd M -P M -P 03 03 -P -P -H C fd CD CU M X U •H -H 0) -H CUX3 -P 03 -r) ^ U CD 0 CD U (U 03 4H G M CD M-i CD PJ co a) M -H CD U M CD MH -H XI m -p CD -P •H rd M P 41 3 G n) 03 -P -H 735 ------- (3) Alternative Stack Heights In order to examine the effects of alternative stack heights on ambient air quality in the Beulah scenario, worst-case disper- sion modeling was carried out for a 300-foot stack (lowest stack height consistent with good engineering practice), a 500-foot stack (an average or most frequently used height), and a 1,000- foot stack (a highest stack height). The results of this examina- tion are shown in Table 9-7. Emissions from each stack are con- trolled by an 80 percent efficient S02 scrubber and a 99 percent efficient ESP. The 500-foot case was given previously as part of the base case. A comparison of predicted emissions from the Beulah power plant with applicable standards shows no violations of Class II PSD increments for SOa if a 1,000-foot stack is used. (4) Alternative Plant Sizes The base case 3,000 MWe power plant at Beulah (500-foot stack height, 80 percent SOz removal, and 99 percent total sus- pended particulates [TSP] removal) violates Class II PSD incre- ments for 3-hour and 24-hour SOz emissions. As shown in Table 9-8, a reduction in plant capacity to 2,250 MWe allows the plant to meet the Class II PSD increment for 24-hour S02 emissions, but a further reduction to 1,500 MWe is required to meet the Class II PSD 3-hour S02 emission increment. (5) Summary of Power Plant Air Impacts During the construction phase of the Beulah power plant, the frequency of current violations of NAAQS particulate standards will probably increase. Once the 3,000 MWe power plant is in operation (80 percent SOz removal, 99 percent TSP removal, and 500-foot stack height), Class II PSD increments for 3-hour and 24-hour S02 emissions will be violated. If the plant were equipped with a 95 percent efficient SOa scrubber or if capacity were reduced to 1,500 MWe, all applicable standards could be met. B. Lurgi Impacts Typical and peak pollution concentrations are summarized for the two Lurgi plants in Table 9-9. Peak concentrations from these new plants are not expected to cause violations of federal or North Dakota state ambient air standards, and these facili- ties will easily meet all Class II PSD increments. The Class I increment for 3-hour S0£ concentrations will be exceeded. In accordance with EPA regulations, this Class I PSD violation would require a maximum Class I buffer zone of about 13.1 miles for each plant. Since there are no current or proposed Class I areas within these buffer zones, no significant deterioration problems are anticipated. 736 ------- TABLE 9-7: AIR QUALITY IMPACTS RESULTING FROM ALTERNATIVE STACK HEIGHTS AT BEULAH POWER PLANT SELECTED STACK HEIGHTS (feet) 300 500 1,000 APPLICABLE STANDARDS NAAQS (primary) (secondary) State Standards Class II PSD Increments MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION (yg/m3) 3-HR. S02 745 692 261 — 1,300 1,300 512 24-HR. S02 125 112 13 365 — 260 91 24-HR. TSP 29 26 3 260 150 150 37 yg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter HR. = hour SOa = sulfur dioxide TSP = total suspended particulates NAAQS = National Ambient Air Quality Standards PSD = prevention of significant deterioration In a worst-case situation, expected infrequently, short-term reductions in visibility (background visibility is about 60 miles) to between 15 and 52 miles may occur, depending on the amount of S02 converted to particulates in the atmosphere. C. Synthane Impacts Table 9-10 gives typical and peak concentrations from the Synthane gasification plant. These data show violations of North Dakota ambient air standards for 1-hour N02 concentrations. Peak concentrations from the Synthane plants will exceed Class I PSD increments for 24-hour and 3-hour S02 levels. These violations will require an 18.6-mile buffer zone between each plant and any designated Class I area. In a worst-case situation, which is expected to occur infre- quently, the background visibility of 60 miles may be reduced to between 2 and 11 miles, depending on the amount of S02 converted to particulates in the atmosphere. 737 ------- TABLE 9-8: AIR QUALITY IMPACTS RESULTING FROM ALTERNATIVE PLANT SIZES AT BEULAH POWER PLANT UNIT SIZE (MWe) 750 NUMBER OF UNITS 1 2 3 4 PLANT CAPACITY (MWe) 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 APPLICABLE STANDARDS NAAQS (primary) (secondary) State Standards Class II PSD Increments MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION (yg/m3) 3-HR. S02 173 346 519 692 — 1,300 1,300 512 24-HR. S02 28 56 84 112 365 — 260 91 24-HR. TSP 6.5 13.0 19.5 26.0 260 150 150 37 yg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter MWe = megawatt-electric HR. = hour S02 = sulfur dioxide TSP = total suspended particulates NAAQS = National Ambient Air Quality Standards PSD = prevention of significant deterioration D. Scenario Impacts (1) To 1980 Construction of the hypothetical power plant and Lurgi gasification plant will begin in this period, with the power plant becoming fully operational by 1980. A slight reduction in long- range visibility from the current average of 60 miles at Bismarck, North Dakota, is expected once the power plant becomes operational. The town of Beulah is projected to. grow from a 1-975 population of 1,350 to 2,300 by 1980. This increase will contribute to increases in pollution concentrations from urban sources. Table 9-11 shows predicted concentrations of the five criteria pollutants measured at the center of the town and at a "rural" point, 3 miles from the center of the town. When concentrations from urban sources only are added to background levels, no federal or North Dakota state ambient standards will be exceeded. 738 ------- CTi I CTi w Is H rt; Q Z 0 u u CO >H K si M OH 0, CM M 0 « D rH 03 r-l O CM a J EH Z 3 c- O M CLj ^ EH Q Z § U M EH EH Z < U EH Z S M J CJ -J <£ o 2 P-i U ^ < cr» r^ o rH CM rH ro CN Ol rH in in o CM in in rH CM oo ooom oo o rH CN CO !-• rH CM rH rH o o o o o r~- in o o no rH m rH rH •» rH in o o in o o [ — VD 00 M> O V£> CN CO rH rH rH CTl 00 t— rH CN O Z Z .... O CN r~ Ov O CN •* rH rH tj- rH rO fH >X> rH z z .... 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E CO c^ 1 ID 4-1 16 -O 0) IH 3 cn (B 4) e cn •H T) IH IB c (0 4J tn U x IH 3 0 1 01 £4 •o 739 ------- w O rH I STANDARDS11 CONCENTRATIONS3 Q cn fc AMBIENT X < w c- M M C/l W < rJ U CLASS I „ < §8 O ^ Q SECONDARY PRIMARY AH SYNTHANE 2 BEUL SYNTHANE 1 EH < Oi ij g M (i >< E-i BACKGROUND POLLUTANT AVERAGING TIME O^ C^ O rH fN rH m CN CTI r-i in l/l O CN IT! in rH CN oo ooom oo o vrjin "ovooiH oo y? rH IN m r- rH IN rH rH o o o o o \£> IT] O O y2 rH t-0 rH rH rH in o o in o o r~ VD ro vo o vo CN CO rH rH in co ro O ^T CO CT\ O U3 O CN !^> C^ rH rH rH CM r- •q' Z • O rHCTiOO rHr~ T rH O ITI k£l CN CN n rH rr ON ZO rHin^r-o: rHcn r CM CN O r- r-l ro ** in rH in rH Z Z Z • Z in CN o o vo m -^r in d TT ^T CO rH d) 4-1 co to to to to rHrH3 .H333 rH ri U 3 d) T3 4-1 C 10 u •H U-J • r4 C Cn -H Ul UJ 0 c o •H 4-1 C I) > 0) M a ii Q Ul Cu d) TD -H X O •H 'O c d) Cn O I-l 4-J • H C II rg 0 z Ul q o • H •P CO IH 4J C d) O c o o T3 C 3 O L, 01 X U tfl -Q IH 0) > O 0) Cn C tfl X O 0 C II Z rH CO 3 q C c • •>, 4J •H rH • r-\| U CO C O -H 4-1 CO O -H UH •H Ul ft) Cn d) q C3 r) 4J C >i rH CO O -H 4J d) Tr; 4-> O a •>, £ d) r" 4J E O \|-4 UH in q O •H 4-> CO to 4J C d) U c o CJ rH CD > c; i T3 C 3 O l-i Cn •o c 4J u •\|H "O d) ^1 a. dJ 1_\| (0 Q) Ul d) fH CO t in rH d) O rH •a 3 o IH Cn rj tfl J2 E O ^H O c 3 0 p 01 A; rj rrj Q dJ 01 10 d) > CO d CO x; 4J rH CO d) O •H rH D 3 r> 4-1 O d) 4J C to DJ O 4J -a d; c Cn •rH u: Q; •c r/ T; P ro •O C tt 4J Ul N 4- •H rH CO 3 tT M •rH CO 4J C i ij ro T) c o 0 d) Ul T3 C Ifl ; >l ra rH tfl 3 C C rfl d) X 4J C CO r^ -P IH Q_, X 4J 0 Ul d) E •H 4J Cn C • rH tJ1 CO V-l d) > CO IH 0 Ul T3 ;_i rfl •O C CO [ ! 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H 740 ------- H I W JD W Q OS eC a § tf> ITRATIONS' CJ 2 o o Z a c 2 EH Z t-H 0 a, ,q i Qi Z o y 2 0 EH o M S E < I h 1- C c < DAKOT X OS IC^ Q Z 0 CJ w w OS S M in in CO o CO rH in rH in CO rH O CO S Q Z O o OS u u 03 W J ERAGING £> < oo OOOLO oo o oo rH fNfOr- rHfN rH OO rH O O rH ^T o o o o o o o (^ L(~l O O ^ O O rH rO rH rH O O «. fc h rH O O rH ** mo oin o o oo \|>i£> CO \D O iX> OO fN ro -H «H O O o o (N r-~ i — iini — fN rsr- o ^r^1 fsj ,_((Njro ^ p_( CNrH (N CTi ID i — \| rH^J1 O^T^1^ rHCT\ O (NCO (N rH(N(N r^ CO O>O> rH r^ CN rH r- O O"l LiO CO rH ^ O ^D O^ rH rH rH U") (N O CM rH in co cor- Lnmr-(N r i — o ^ ^ f\j ^(^rn rHO^ rH rMrH (N 01 in . rH CM rHCNfN rHr^- CO CTiO> rH r- CN . rH inr- noiinco co^s1 o ^D &\ rH rH rH in 0) 1 13 C 3 0 CP T3 0) JJ CJ ..H T3 0) M Q. 0) IB 01 in CD r; £_, re C 5 0 14H 0 u 0) JJ c Ol CJ 01 JJ g 0 IH 14H in 0) r-H •H g? ro C CD IB JJ IT. •U C Oi £ 0) IH 3 V) IB 0) e. 0) IB E in jj C 'o a. rH IB ^ 3 r . in 1 Oi 0) rH J3 IB EH S 0 IH 14H the public health jj 0 0) JJ o ^J a 0 •p T3 CJ C CT^ •H w CD TJ in •a r4 IB T3 c IB JJ in ^^ jj -H i-l IB 3 O1 IH -H IB JJ C 0) .,_{ n £ IB rH IB >H 0) •a 0) 14H CD i- IB E >-, IH IB •a C O 0 CD in E T3 C IB r >i IB g •H V\| cx E JD • >, 1 — 1 CD > • H JJ CJ 0) n. in 01 IH » CD M IB 14H r-t CU 3 T3 C IB O Z O JJ 13 CD JJ IH CD C 0 0 01 tH IB in CD o 3 0 10 C IB £! IH 3 g O IH 14H C 0) o' IH JJ •H C UH O U! CD T3 •rl X o MH O JJ c 0> o ^( CD a o in jj IB n JJ •O g 3 in in IB in •H JJ rH U 741 ------- (2) To 1990 One Lurgi gasification plant will become operational in 1982. A second Lurgi plant will be constructed and become opera- tional in 1987. Maximum pollutant concentrations resulting from the interaction of power plant and Lurgi plumes at a 5-mile separation distance violate Class II PSD increments for 24-hour and 3-hour S02 emissions. If the wind blows directly from one plant to the other, plumes will interact. However, resulting concentrations would be less than those produced by either plant and mine combination (which are located much closer together) when the wind blows from the plant to the mine (peak plant/mine concentration) . Had the plants been sited closer together, the probability of interactions would increase. A slight reduction in long-range visibility from the current average of 60 miles at Bismarck, North Dakota, is expected. Beulah's population is predicted to grow to 4,000 by 1985, then to decline to 2,200 by 1990. The concentrations of urban pollutants for 1985 are shown in Table 9-11. The 3-hour HC concentrations predicted for 1985 will violate federal primary and secondary standards as well as North Dakota air quality standards.1 All other criteria pollutant concentrations are expected to be well within established standards. (3) To 2000 Two Synthane gasification plants will become operational be- tween 1990 and 2000. Interactions between the Synthane plants, power plant, and Lurgi plants will cause increases in annual peak concentrations. However, these increases are expected to be rel- atively small (less than 3 micrograms per cubic meter [yg/m3] for particulates and S02 and less than 15 yg/m3 for NOa) and should not violate any standards. When all of these facilities come on line, visibility is expected to decrease from the current average of 60 miles in the Beulah region to 54 miles. At a hypothetical 5-mile separation distance, maximum pollutant concentrations resulting from inter- action of power plant and Synthane plant plumes will violate Class II PSD increments for 24-hour and 3-hour SO2 emissions. During the 1990-2000 decade, the town of Beulah will again record an increase and then a decrease in population. The max- imum population will reach 4,800 in 1995, and increased pollution concentrations will be associated with this growth (Table 9-11). As was the case in 1985, only 3-hour HC levels will exceed any 1Ambient HC standards are violated regularly in mo'St urban areas. 742 ------- federal or state ambient air standards. All other pollutant concentrations fall well within existing air quality standards. E. Other Air Impacts Additional categories of potential air impacts have been qualitatively examined; that is, an attempt has been made to identify sources of pollutants and how energy development may affect levels of these pollutants during the next 25 years. These categories are sulfates, oxidants , fine particulates , long- range visibility, plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, cooling tower fogging and icing, trace element emissions, and fugitive dust emissions.1 Although there are likely to be local impacts as a consequence of these pollutants, both the available data and knowledge of impact mechanisms are insufficient to allow quantitative, site-specific analyses. Thus, these are discussed in a more general, qualitative manner in Chapter 10. 9.2.4 Summary of Air impacts Five new facilities (a power plant, two Lurgi , and two Syn- thane gasification plants) are projected for the Beulah area. To just meet NSPS, the 3,000 MWe power plant would require 99 percent particulate, 48 percent SO2 , and 38 percent NOX removal. However, at this level of control, ambient air standards for SOa would be violated. With 80 percent SOa and 99 percent particulate removal, Class II PSD increments for 3- and 24-hour SOa would be exceeded, and North Dakota's 1-hour ambient standards for NOX and SC-2 would be violated. In order to meet these Class II increments and North Dakota standards, the plant would have to be equipped with a 95 percent efficient scrubber or plant capacity would have to be re- duced to 1,500 MWe. Typical and peak pollutant concentrations from the Lurgi and Synthane gasification plants and their associated mines will not violate any federal ambient standards or any Class II PSD incre- ments. The Lurgi plants meet North Dakota ambient air standards, but the Synthane plants are likely to violate North Dakota's 1-hour N02 standard. If all five facilities are constructed according to the hypothesized schedule, population increases in Beulah will add to existing pollutant levels. Violations of HC standards may occur by 1990 due solely to urban sources. JNo analytical information is currently available on the source and formation of nitrates. See Hazardous Materials Advi- sory Committee. Nitrogenous Compounds in the Environment, EPA- SAB-73-001. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973. 743 ------- 9.3 WATER IMPACTS 9.3.1 Introduction The main source of water in the Beulah area is the Upper Missouri River (see Figure 9-3). Water is available either from the rivers in the area or from Lake Sakakawea. Although of lesser importance, the Knife River is also capable of supplying water to some energy developments. Annual rainfall averages about 15 inches, and annual snowfall averages about 36 inches.1 This section identifies the sources and uses of water required for energy development, the residuals that will be generated, and the water availability and quality impacts that are likely to result. 9.3.2 Existing Conditions A. Groundwater The Beulah area is located on the southeastern edge of the Williston Basin, a large sedimentary basin encompassing much of western North Dakota and eastern Montana. Groundwater is avail- able from deep bedrock aquifers, shallow sandstone aquifers, lignite aquifers, and alluvial aquifers in the area. Deeper, potentially highly productive aquifers, such as the Dakota or the Madison, are important regionally but apparently do not con- tain potable water in the Beulah area. Deep bedrock aquifers include the Fox Hills and basal Hell Creek aquifer and the upper Hell Creek and lower Cannonball-Ludlow aquifer, with the former being deeper. Wells in the lower aqui- fers are as much as 1,500 feet deep and yield up to 150 gpm, while the upper aquifer wells are about 500-800 feet deep with maximum yields of 100 gpm. The water quality of the two aquifers is quite similar; both contain predominately sodium bicarbonate with a TDS content of about 1,500 milligrams per liter (mg/£). (The U.S. Geological Survey defines 1,000-3,000 mg/£ as slightly saline.) Both aquifers are currently tapped for domestic livestock uses, with the lower aquifer also being used for municipal supplies. The lower Tongue River Formation aquifer is in shallow sand- stone and is separated from the deeper Hell Creek-Cannonball- Ludlow aquifer by a considerable thickness of relatively ''The moisture content of one inch of rain is equal to approx- imately 15 inches of snow. 2Croft, M.G. Ground-Water Resources, Mercer and Oliver Coun- ties, North Dakota, North Dakota Geological Survey Bulletin 56, Part III. Grand Forks, N.D.: North Dakota Geological Survey, 1974. 744 ------- w u CO H W ffi EH CO H H EH H U < PH >H O tf W S H K O CO w W W ro I CTl O H 745 ------- impermeable siltstone and claystone beds. The formation is only about 150 feet thick, and well yields are only about 5 gpm. The water contains sodium bicarbonate with a TDS of 1,400-1,700 mg/£. The aquifer is tapped by wells for domestic and stock purposes. Lignite bed aquifers are also used for domestic and stock purposes. Well yields are generally less than 10 gpm, and TDS concentration is generally over 1,000 mg/Jl. Alluvial aquifers are present along the intermittent and perennial streams in the Beulah area. The most important of these are the Knife River and Missouri River aquifers and those along Goodman, Antelope, Elm, and Square Butte Creeks. Thick- nesses range generally from 100 to 200 feet. The alluvial aquifers are the most productive in the Oliver County area, gen- erally yielding more than 500 gpm.1 Also, water quality is gen- erally better than in the bedrock aquifers. TDS concentration ranges from about 500 to about 1,700 mg/&. Water from alluvial aquifers is used for a wide variety of purposes. B. Surface Water The illustrative energy facilities in the Beulah area are located generally south of the eastern portion of Lake Sakakawea in the Upper Missouri drainage basin. Garrison Dam, which is near Riverdale, impounds the Missouri River to form Lake Sakaka- wea. The lake is used for flood control, irrigation, power, re- creation, navigation, and as a water supply source for municipal and industrial users. Reservoir characteristics are shown in Table 9-12. Flows in the Missouri River are greatly affected by condi- tions in the Yellowstone River Basin, which supplies about one- half of the average annual flow at Garrison Dam. Pertinent data for flow at Bismarck are shown in Table 9-13. Another significant perennial river in the Beulah area is the Knife River, which runs east through Beulah and Hazen to its confluence with the Missouri River below Garrison Dam. The Knife River is part of the Western Dakota Subbasin. Stream flow and other characteristics of the Knife River are shown in Table 9-13. Available data on local creeks are also shown in Table 9-13. The consumptive water uses reported for this area in 1975 are shown in Table 9-14. The Corps of Engineers has estimated that water will be available to supply both irrigation and energy users M.G. Ground-Water Resources, Mercer and Oliver Counties, North Dakota, North Dakota Geological Survey Bulletin 56, Part III. Grand Forks, N.D.: North Dakota Geological Survey, 1974. 746 ------- TABLE 9-12: RESERVOIR CHARACTERISTICS—LAKE SAKAKAWEA Location of Garrison Dam * Contributing drainage area Approximate length Maximum width Average width Maximum operating pool elevation and area Inactive storage between 1,775 and 1,673 feet above mean sea level Total gross storage between 1,854 and 1,673 feet above mean sea level Maximum discharge Minimum discharge Average discharge Power production plant capacity dependable capacity Surface fluctuationb Near Riverdale, North Dakota at river mile 1,389.9 180,050 square miles 178 miles 14 miles 3 miles 1,775 feet above mean sea level; 129,000 acres million acre-feet 24.4 million acre-feet 348,000 cubic feet per second 1,320 cubic feet per second 21,500 cubic feet per second 500 megawatt-electric 302 megawatt-electric 15 feet average 30 feet maximum in recent years Missouri Basin Inter-Agency Committee. The Missouri River Basin Comprehensive Framework Study. Denver, Colo.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, 1971. Northern Great Plains Resources Program, Water Work Group. Water Quality Subgroup Report, Discussion Draft. Denver, Colo.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Region VIII, 1974. CU.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Missouri Region. Final Environmental Statement: Initial Stage, Garrison Diversion Unit, Pick-Sloan Missouri Basin Program, North Dakota. Billings, Mont.: Bureau of Reclamation, 1975. 747 ------- PS < 25 H U W D W pa w w EH 2 H < 1 8 rl fe W OS EH Cfl oo rH I ^ \ £ -P O MH J 1 PM CU SH W U < U) 4H O a £3 f^ — • a o w H 2 m X f O £5 — ' a ID »^. ^"^ S CO H 3 ^ a ~ w ^ s«-g 3 W e H PS . n§ O1 Q ,2. 0 Q Cfl O PS CJ rij W W PS H s §a g5 UJ O PS ^ o o o «. 0 J" r~ ^ in rH O CM •• CN O O O •K O 0 in o o 00 1-1 o o K, 00 H LO •^ -rJ i \ iJ SH n3 O O SH (d w cu g w > tn •rH -H -r) a PS PQ O O O o . if) c> v^> rn o o o o us en CN H in ^ CN O CO CO <3< CN CU ^ in 4J £ 0) CU -P O QJ > d rH S-\| -H c m X) CTi •• CN ^ O 0 f^ k ro (N O in CN oo A x! O CD (d C CU rH (d SH 0 SH u 0) CQ pq $H -P 0) SH en -p (d CU 4J CU 5 0 C SH ------- TABLE 9-14: CONSUMPTIVE WATER USES IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SUBBASIN USE WATER REQUIREMENT (acre-ft/yr) Irrigation Livestock Municipal and Industrial Mining Rural Domestic Steam Electric Manufacturing Total 555,000 68,000 28,000 23,000 16,000 9,000 4,000 703,000 acre-ft/yr = acre-feet per year Source: Missouri River Basin Commission. The Missouri River Basin Water Resources Plan, Final Draft Report.Omaha,Nebr.:Missouri River Basin Commission, 1977, p. 151. through the year 2020. 1 However, releases to sustain navigation may be curtailed under some conditions. Water quality in Lake Sakakawea is relatively good. Mea- surements have been made both in the lake and downstream of Garrison Dam. Some of these data are reported in Table 9-15 so that a specific water user can make an evaluation of the suit- ability of local water quality as it pertains to a particular use. Water quality data for the Knife River is scarce, although there are known high silt and nutrient loads. The nutrients that accompany the silt are related to agricultural fertilizer uses. These nutrients increase aquatic plant growth which reduces fish populations. Because of these conditions, there is almost no sport fishing in the upper Knife River Basin, although the lower river is a good sport fishery. Water quality parameters have been compiled for area streams from several locations and are shown in Table 9-15. ^.S., Army, Corps of Engineers, Missouri River Division, Reservoir Control Center. Missouri River Main Stem Reservoirs Long Range Regulation Studies, Series 1-74. of Engineers, 1974. Omaha, Nebr.: Corps 749 ------- o 1 — 1 tf < 2 w u en tc J p w w K EH PH ^ O H fa (U 4J < -M E-i fH < Q rJ. U) >H CM EH H tfi i-l g o^ rN r-< r- u: < < < n <-o ^ m 222- •— ID — ' - - 1 ac o^ in « , u- . 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J -H . i CTs Q) J r— 1 rH J -H - - c - rH_Cl 0 r-l > H GJ — Q- 3 1 >i 3 M E -i U 3 H 0 r4 £ T3 750 ------- The availability of water to all the illustrative energy facilities is largely controlled by interstate compacts that govern water use in areas above Lake Sakakawea.1 Since no pro- vision has generally been made in these compacts to govern the location of the withdrawal of water by the pwner, allotments can be accounted for at downstream locations. For instance, Yellow- stone River water currently allotted to Wyoming but not being used within that state could be withdrawn as far downstream as, for example, Lake Oahe and pumped back to Wyoming. Yet assuming that some allocated water must be passed through, there should be sufficient water available in Lake Sakakawea to supply the scenario energy developments. A permit for withdrawal of water from Lake Sakakawea must be obtained from the North Dakota State Water Commission. There has been a moratorium on the issuing of permits from Lake Sakakawea that was in effect until July 1977. This moratorium was insti- tuted to allow the legislature to restructure the water alloca- tion program. The availability of water will be decided by the state after allowing for currently allocated water, including the rights of the Bureau of Reclamation to water for the Garrison Diversion Unit. 9.3.3 Factors Producing Impacts The water requirements of and effluents from energy facili- ties cause water impacts. These requirements and effluents are identified in this section for each type of energy facility. Associated population increases also increase municipal water demand and sewage effluent; these are presented in Section 9.3.4 for the scenario which includes all facilities constructed according to the scenario schedule. A. Water Requirements of Energy Facilities The water requirements for energy facilities hypothesized in the Beulah area are shown in Table 9-16. Two sets of data are presented. The Energy Resource Development System (ERDS) data are based on secondary sources including impact statements, Federal Power Commission docket filings, and recently published Fourche River Compact of 1943, 58 Stat. 94 (1944); Yellowstone River Compact of 1950, 65 Stat. 663 (1951). 751 ------- TABLE 9-16: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR ENERGY FACILITIES AT BEULAH (acre-feet per year) TECHNOLOGY3 Power Generation Gasification Lurgi Synthane Gasification Facilities Power Plant ERDSb WET COOLING 29,400 6,705 9,090 WPAC COMBINATION OF WET AND DRY COOLING HIGH WET 23,884 4,891 7,671 INTERMEDIATE WET 5,494 3,307 5,878 MINIMUM WET NC 2,853 5,520 Cost range in which indicated cooling technology is most economic (dollars per thousand gallons) NC NC <1.50 0.65-5.90 1.50-2.00 >3. 65-5. 90 >2.00 NC EROS = Energy Resource Development System WPA = Water Purification Associates NC = not considered < = less than > = greater than These values assume an annual load factor of 75 percent in the case of the 3,000 megawatt-electric power plant and 90 percent in the case of a 250 million cubic feet per day Lurgi and Synthane facilities. White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S. coming. Energy Resource Development Environmental Protection Agency, forth- cGold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. Combinations of wet and wet/dry cooling were obtained by examining the economics of cooling alternatives for the turbine condensers and gas compressor interstage coolers. In the high wet case, these are all wet cooled; in the intermediate case, wet cooling handles 10 percent of the load on the turbine condensers and all of the load in the interstage coolers; in the minimum practical wet case, wet cooling handles 10 percent of the cooling load on the turbine condensers and 50 percent of the load in the interstage coolers. For power plants, only variations on the steam turbine condenser load were considered practical, thus, only high wet and inter- mediate wet cases were examined. 752 ------- data accumulations.1 The Water Purification Associates data are from a study on minimum water use requirements and take into account opportunities to recycle water on-site as well as the moisture content of the coal being used and local meteorological conditions.2 As indicated in Table 9-16, the 3,000 MWe coal- fired power plant is expected to require the most water of all hypothesized energy facilities in the Beulah scenario (23,884 acre-feet per year [acre-ft/yr], assuming high wet cooling). The Lurgi and Synthane gasification facilities will require 4,891 and 7,671 acre-feet per day (assuming high wet cooling at the expected load factor of 90 percent). If intermediate wet cooling technology is used (a combination of wet and dry cooling), water requirements for energy facilities could be reduced by 77 percent for the power plant, 30 percent for the Lurgi facility, and 23 percent for the Synthane facility. From an economic viewpoint, the decision of which cooling technology to use often depends on the availability and price of water. For the power plant, high wet cooling is most economical if water costs less than $3.65 to $5.90 per thousand gallons. Intermediate wet cooling would save money if water costs rise above the $3.65 to $5.90 range. For synthetic fuel facilities, when water costs rise above $1.50 per thousand gallons, the intermediate wet cooling technology saves money. Additional water savings of from 7 to 14 percent could be realized for synthetic fuel facilities if minimum wet cooling is utilized. This technology would be economically advantageous if water costs more than $2.00 per thousand gallons. If water costs only $0.25 per thousand gallons and intermediate wet cooling is used in order to conserve water, the increased cost of synthetic fuels produced in the Beulah scenario would be about 1 cent per million Btu of fuel produced. However, in the case of electricity, the added cost of intermediate wet cooling would be 0.1 to 0.2 cent per kilowatt-hour (kWh). The manner in which water is used by the energy facilities is shown in Figure 9-4. As indicated there, the greatest use for all energy conversion technologies is for cooling. Solids disposal :The ERDS Report is based on data drawn from: University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program. Energy Alternatives: A Comparative Analysis. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975; and Radian Corporation. A Western Regional Energy Development Study, 3 vols. and Executive Summary. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1975. These data are published in White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Develop- ment Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Pro- tection Agency, forthcoming. 2Gold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, April 1977. See Appendix B. 753 ------- 0) 0) 0) QJ 4-1 I a) n o o o o 30 25 20 15 10 ERDS WPA-H ERDS Cooling Tower Evaporation \| \| Consumed in the Process Boftl Solids Disposal and Other •For Lurgi Gasification there is a net gain of about 740 acre-feet/year of water in the process. ERDS WPA-M Power Synthane Generation Gasification (3,000 MWe) (250xl06 scf/day) Lurgi Gasification (250xl06 scf/day) FIGURE 9-4: WATER CONSUMPTION FOR ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE BEULAH SCENARIO ERDS = Energy Resource Development System WPA-H = Water Purification Associates--High Wet Cooling WPA-I = Water Purification Associates—Intermediate Wet Cooling WPA-M = Water Purification Associates—Minimum Wet Cooling MWe = megawatt-electric scf/day = standard cubic feet per day Source: The ERDS data is from White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Wash- ington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. The WPA data is from Gold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. 754 ------- consumes comparable quantities of water for all technologies, varying primarily as a function of the ash content of the feed- stock coal. The water requirement associated with mining includes dust control,- handling, crushing, and service as well as reclamation. Reclamation requirements have been calculated, assuming 5 years of irrigation at a rate of 9 inches per year, and are given in Table 9-17. Water requirements for dust control are expected to range from 240 acre-ft/yr at the mine for the Lurgi plant to 400 acre-ft/yr at the mine for the power plant. Water to meet reclama- tion and dust control demands will come from mine dewatering activities whenever possible and will be supplemented with surface water if needed. The first Lurgi facility, the power plant, and the two Syn- thane facilities will obtain their water through a pipeline from Lake Sakakawea because it is the largest, most reliable local source. Water will be withdrawn from an intake system below the minimum operating level of the lake and pumped to on-site reser- voirs. The second Lurgi facility will use water released from Lake Sakakawea and withdrawn from its intake on the Missouri River downstream from Garrison Dam. As with the other facilities, the water will be pumped from the river to an on-site reservoir. Alternatively, the second Lurgi facility could use an upstream reservoir on the Knife River, such as the proposed Bronco Reser- voir,1 as a water source. B. Effluents from Energy Facilities The quantities of solid effluents from the energy facilities hypothesized for the Beulah area are shown in Table 9-18. The largest effluent quantities are from flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and ash disposal. Since the lignite in this area has only 6 per- cent ash, disposal requires less water than for coals with higher ash contents. The quantity of FGD effluent depends mainly on the sulfur content of the coal (0.8 percent by weight on a dry basis) and the scrubber efficiency (80 percent removal assumed). As indicated in Table 9-18, the synthetic' fuels facilities (Lurgi and Synthane) and the 3,000 MWe coal-fired power plant will produce solid effluents in the Beulah scenario. The highest volume of solid waste will come from the power plant (more than 3,800 tons of solid wastes per day). The Lurgi and Synthane plants each will generate about 2,200 tons of solid wastes per day. The combined total of solid wastes from all facilities will ^Jorthern Great Plains Resources Program. Water Work Group Report. Billings, Mont.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, 1974. 755 ------- TABLE 9-17: WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR RECLAMATION3 MINE Power Plant Lurgi (2) Syn thane (2) Total ACRES DISTURBED PER YEAR 840 1,000 1,000 MAXIMUM ACRES UNDER IRRIGATION 4,200 5,000 5,000 WATER REQUIREMENT (acre-ft/yr) 3,150 3,750 3,750 10,650 acre-ft/yr = acre-feet per year ra Assumes 9 inches per year for 5 years. be more than 12,600 tons per day (tpd). The largest amount of dissolved and dry solids is expected to come from the power plant (74 and 2,138 tpd). The Lurgi plants each will produce about 2,000 tpd of wet solids. Dissolved solids are present in the ash blowdown stream, the demineralizer waste stream, and the FGD stream.1 The principal constituents of wastewater which appear as dissolved solids are calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate, and chlorine. Wet solids from the electric power and Lurgi or Synthane gas- ification facilities are in the form of flue gas sludge, bottom ash, and cooling water treatment waste sludge. Calcium carbonate (CaCO3) and calcium sulfate (CaSOO are the primary constituents of flue gas sludge. The bottom ash is primarily oxides of alumi- num and silicon. CaCOs is the principal constituent of the cool- ing water treatment waste sludge. In all cases, the amount of cooling water treatment waste is very small, compared to the bot- tom ash and flue gas sludge. Note that all coal conversion processes generate electric- ity on-site, thus flue gas cleaning, ash handling, and demineral- ization are required for all. Demineralization is a method of preparing water for use in boilers; it produces a waste stream composed of chemicals present in the source water. The ash blow- down stream is the water used to remove bottom ash from the boiler. Bottom ash removal is done via a wet sluicing system using cooling tower blowdown water. Thus, the dissolved solids content of that stream is composed of chemicals from the ash and cooling water. 756 ------- TABLE 9-18: EFFLUENTS FROM COAL CONVERSION PROCESSES AT BEULAHa FACILITY TYPE Lurgi (250 MMcfd) Syn thane (250 MMcfd) Electric Power (3,000 MWe) SOLIDSb (tpd) DISSOLVED 32 29 74 WET 1,986 484 1,634 DRY 251 1,663 2,138 TOTAL 2,269 2,176 3,846 WATER IN EFFLUENT0 (acre-ft/yr) 807 975 1,978 tpd = tons per day acre-ft/yr = acre-feet per year MMcfd = million cubic feet per day MWe = megawatt-electric These data are from Radian Corporation. The Assessment of Resid- ual Disposal for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. EPA Contract No. 68-01- 1916. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1978. The Radian Cor- poration report extends and is based on earlier analyses conducted by Water Purification Associates and reported in Gold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Syn- thetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. These values are given for a day when the facility is operating at full load. In order to obtain yearly values, these numbers must be multiplied by 365 days and by the average load factor. Load factors are 90 percent for synthetic fuels facilities and 75 percent for power plants. The values given as solids do not in- clude the weight of the water in which the solids are suspended or dissolved. cThe values of water discharged are annual and take into account the load factor. 757 ------- Dry solid waste produced by the coal conversion processes is primarily fly ash composed of oxides of aluminum, silicon, and iron. The water in the effluent stream (Table 9-18) accounts for between 9 (power plant) and 16 (Lurgi) percent of the total water requirements of the individual energy facilities (data in Table 9-18 compared with that in Table 9-16) . Dissolved and wet solids are sent to evaporative holding ponds and later deposited in land- fills. Dry solids are treated with water to prevent dusting and deposited in a landfill.l 9.3,4 Impacts This section describes water impacts which result from the mines, conversion facilities (a power plant, two Lurgi plants, and two Synthane plants), and from a scenario which includes con- struction of all facilities according to the hypothesized sce- nario schedule. The water requirements and impacts associated with expected population increases are included in the scenario impact description. A. Surface Mine Impacts Surface mining will affect the quantity and quality of both groundwater and surface water. The chief groundwater effect of opening the mines will be the disruption of shallow bedrock aquifers in the Tongue River formation. Both sandstone aquifers and lignite beds will be destroyed by the removal of the lignite. Excavation will disrupt the flow patterns of aquifers encountered, requiring mine dewatering which may lead to excessive drawdowns and aquifer depletion. Aquifers in the overburden cannot be restored to premining conditions by replacement of the overburden during reclamation. Mining operations may result in oxidation which could cause the generation of acid waters and the release of dissolved con- taminants which would infiltrate the substrata below and adjacent to the mines. The infiltrating contaminated water could in turn pollute local shallow bedrock aquifers. These groundwater depletion and contamination problems will be manifested in local wells, springs, and seeps. Aquifer deple- tion will lower water levels in wells, and some wells may dry up or have to be deepened. Depletion may also cause flow reductions in springs, and some springs may dry up. Groundwater contamina- tion from leaching of the overburden could ruin wells and/or springs. Most of the impacts will be in consolidated bedrock aquifers, but nearby alluvial aquifers could also be affected. The environmental problems associated with solid waste disposal in holding ponds and in landfills are discussed in Chapter 10. 758 ------- These effects would be most pronounced where alluvial aquifers are recharged by base flow from bedrock aquifers. The streams associated with the alluvial aquifers may also receive contamin- ated water as base flow from bedrock or alluvial aquifers. Runoff from the mine area will be high in suspended solids from erosion of open banks, spoil piles, and the mine floor and will contain higher than ambient concentrations of the trace metals associated with the coal. The greater part of the con- taminated runoff will remain in or enter the mine area either by natural flow or through runoff retention structures. No con- taminated runoff will be allowed to directly enter a natural stream. About 83 acre-ft/yr of runoff could be trapped by each 1,000 acres of active mine or reclamation area.1 If there is a large excess of water from mine dewatering and runoff, it will be treated and used as make-up for process water at the associated energy conversion facility. B. Energy Conversion Facilities Impacts Water impacts may be divided into those occurring during construction and during operation and those occurring because of the water requirements of facilities and because of effluents from the facilities. Construction activities at the facilities will remove vege- tation and disturb the soil, affecting surface-water quality by increasing the sediment load of local runoff. Additionally, the equipment used during construction will require maintenance areas and petroleum products storage facilities. Areas for the storage of other construction-related materials, such as aggregate for a concrete batch plant, will be required as well. All these facil- ities have the potential for contaminating runoff. Runoff control methods will be instituted at all these potential sources. Run- off will be channeled to a holding pond for settling, reuse, and evaporation. Because the supply of water to this pond is inter- mittent, evaporation may claim most of the water. Some of the water may be used for dust control. Power plant construction will cause additional environmental effects where the water supply pipeline crosses the Knife River; construction activities will require that parts of the river be dammed temporarily. Increased silt loads and possible erosion of is estimate corresponds to 1 inch per year of runoff. 759 ------- stream banks due to increased velocities at the dam site may result.l Operation of the facilities may have some impact on local groundwater systems. However, it will not contribute to local aquifer depletion because process and cooling water for these facilities will be provided by Lake Sakakawea. The range of water requirements for the facilities, if high wet cooling is used, is 23,884 acre-ft/yr for the power plant, 4,891 acre-ft/yr for each Lurgi plant, and 7,671 acre-ft/yr for each Synthane plant (Table 9-16). These ranges in water requirements represent 0.5 to 2.4 percent of the minimum discharge from Lake Sakakawea (956,340 acre-ft/yr)2 and 0.03 to 0.2 percent of the annual average dis- charge (15,576,750 acre-ft/yr). The effluents from the energy conversion facilities likely to have the greatest impact on local groundwater supplies are those that will be ponded on the facility sites. Pond liners for the effluent storage ponds are designed to prevent leakage during the lifetime of the energy conversion facility, but they may leak because of failure, inadequate design, or improper main- tenance. In the event of pond liner leakage, contaminants could enter the substrata either by direct infiltration of contaminated liquids or by leaching of solids or semisolids by natural precip- itation. Local groundwater contamination may or may not occur, depending on the composition of the fluids or leachate and on the renovative capacity (filtration and absorption) of the substrata. This capacity will vary according to local geologic conditions. The Lurgi and Synthane facilities will produce solid wastes which will be trucked to disposal sites located in mined-out areas. Decomposition and leaching of these wastes could accentu- ate the contamination problems described earlier for the mines. In addition, there will be on-site ponds similar to those at the power plant for toxic, nontoxic, and sanitary wastes. Because of the provisions of Public Law 92-500, there will be no planned continuous or intermittent discharge of pollutants to surface waters. C. Scenario Impacts Water impacts resulting from interactions among the hypothe- sized facilities and their associated mines and water impacts Alternatively, the pipeline may be attached to the Highway 49 Bridge that crosses the Knife River south of Beulah. Recon- naissance of the area would be necessary to determine if this alternative is viable. 2Value obtained from Table 9-12 using the conversion factor of 1 cubic foot per second equals 724.5 acre-ft/yr. 760 ------- resulting from associated population increases are discussed in this section. Water requirements for direct use by these hypothesized energy facilities (assuming high wet cooling) increase from approximately 24,000 acre-ft/yr in 1980 when the power plant is operating to 33,665 acre-ft/yr in 1990 when the power plant and Lurgi plants are operating and to 49,008 acre-ft/yr in 2000 when all the plants are operating. Additional water, about 23 percent of the water requirement for the facilities, in 2000 may be re- quired for reclamation purposes. As shown in Table 9-19, population increases associated with energy development will also require additional water supplies. In the scenario area, municipal water use will total 4,645 acre-ft/yr by the year 2000, with intermediate demands re- lated to labor-intensive construction as high as 4,000 acre-ft/yr. Currently, water demands are being met with groundwater at all municipalities except Bismarck and Mandan, which use surface water from the Missouri River. Permits are required from the North Dakota State Water Commission to withdraw any additional municipal water. Wastewater from the energy facilities which will be impounded in evaporation ponds will average 2,000 acre-ft/yr by 1980, 3,600 acre-ft/yr by 1990, and 5,500 acre-ft/yr by 2000 (Table 9-18). Rural populations are assumed to use individual, on-site waste disposal facilities (septic tanks and drain fields), and urban populations will require waste treatment facilities. The wastewater generated by the population increases associated with energy development will amount to 1.25 million gallons per day (MMgpd) by 1980, 1.56 MMgpd by 1990, and 3.30 MMgpd by 2000 as shown in Table 9-20. During most of that time, the Bismarck- Mandan area will account for about 80 percent of the totals, but construction demand peaks will cause some fluctuations. Beulah will require increased capacity of 0.34 MMgpd by 1995, more than double its average over the 25-year period under consideration. Similary, Zap peaks in 1985 and Hazen in 1995. Current wastewater treatment practices in these communities are shown in Table 9-21. Based on the current treatment facilities capacities, all the communities in the scenario will require new facilities to accommodate new population due to energy developments. In Bismarck-Mandan, facilities will not have to expand immediately but will be needed before 2000. New facilities must use "best practicable" waste treatment technologies to conform to 1983 Estimates do not include population increases caused by secondary industries. 761 ------- TABLE 9-19: EXPECTED WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR INCREASED POPULATION3 (acre-feet per year) TOWN Beulah Golden Valley Hazen Stanton Zap Center Fort Clark Hannover Bismarck-Mandan Mercer County/ Ruralb Oliver County/ Ruralb 1980 133 6 78 34 25 53 4 15 1,344 11 20 1985 371 14 162 39 74 39 7 , 3 1,708 3 24 1990 119 8 106 35 13 39 6 3 1,834 16 29 1995 483 17 400 81 46 60 13 7 2,842 21 33 2000 147 15 190 85 32 81 15 8 4,032 25 38 Above 1975 base level; based on 125 gallons per capita per day. Based on 80 gallons per capita per day. TABLE 9-20: EXPECTED WASTEWATER FLOWS FROM INCREASED POPULATION3 (million gallons per day) TOWN Beulah Golden Valley Hazen Stanton Zap Center Fort Clark Hannover Bismarck-Mandan 1980 0.10 0 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.04 0 0.01 1 1985 0.27 0.01 0.12 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.01 0 1.22 1990 0.09 0.01 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.03 0 0 1.31 1995 0.34 0.01 0.29 0.06 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.01 2.03 20QO 0.11 0.01 0.14 0.06 0.02 0.06 0.01 0.01 2.88 Above 1975 base level; based on 100 gallons per capita per day. 762 ------- TABLE 9-21: WASTEWATER TREATMENT CHARACTERISTICS OF COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY BEULAH SCENARIO TOWN TYPE OF TREATMENT HYDRAULIC LOADING Beulah Golden Valley Hazen Stanton Zap Center Fort Clark Hannover Bismarck Mandan 2-cell waste stabilization pond, 15 acres 3-cell waste stabilization pond, 5 acres 2-cell waste stabilization pond, 18 acres 2-cell waste stabilization pond, 5.2 acres 2-cell waste stabilization pond, 2.75 acres Waste stabilization, with new but presently inoperable system, 6.5 acres No system No system Expanding to extended aeration, secondary clarifier, sand filtration, chlorination Extended aeration, filtration, chlorination At capacity Can expand by about 100-200 people At capacity At capacity At capacity Old system—over- loaded; new plus old system—at capacity Designed for 55,000 Designed for 20,000 Source: North Dakota Health Department. Personal communication, standards and must allow for recycling or zero discharge of pol- lutants to meet 1985 goals. The 1985 standard could be met by using effluents for industrial process makeup water or for irri- gating local farmland.* federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, Pub L. 92-500, §§ 101, 301; 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976). 763 ------- (1) To 1980 The only activity scheduled before 1980 is the construction of the power plant, the first Lurgi gasification plant, and the openings of their respective lignite surface mines. The power plant will go on-line in 1980, but the Lurgi plant will not go into operation until 1982. Therefore, prior to 1980 there will be little land disturbance by mines (and therefore only.minor reductions in the amount of runoff which no longer reaches streams) and no water required by the conversion facilities. This analysis assumes that the additional water requirements for communities in the scenario now using groundwater sources will also be met from groundwater which will be withdrawn by well fields in nearby alluvial aquifers. The productivity of the aquifers supplying each town should be sufficient to meet the needs without significant aquifer depletion. A possible excep- tion is Hannover, which may have to be provided with supplemental water from surface sources or by a pipeline from a well or well field in the Square Creek aquifer. Increased surface water with- drawals by Bismarck-Mandan to meet projected population needs are not expected to have an appreciable effect on the flow of the Missouri River. As noted in Table 9-21, all the small towns in the scenario area, with the exception of. Fort Clark and Hannover, presently use waste stabilization ponds for sewage treatment. Residences in Fort Clark and Hannover use individual septic tank and drain~ field systems. Bismarck and Mandan have municipal sewage treat- ment plants. Both the stabilization ponds (because of leakage) and the septic tank systems may pose a water quality hazard to local shallow aquifer systems in both the bedrock and the allu- vium. This hazard will be magnified by the population increases associated with the energy development projected for the scenario area. (2) To 1990 During the 1980-1990 interval, three of the energy facilities will begin operation. The power plant will go on-line in 1980, and the Lurgi plants will start operation in 1982 and 1987. The associated coal mines will begin operation concurrent with their plants. By 1990, the mines for the facilities in operation will have disturbed a total of 13,900 acres (calculated from Table 9-17) resulting in a loss of runoff (since this runoff is impounded) of 1,160 acre-ft/yr. Water requirements will total about 33,600 acre-ft/yr by 1990 or 3.5 percent of the minimum discharge of Lake Sakakawea and about 0.2 percent of the lake's average annual discharge. 764 ------- As a result of population growth, municipal water requirements will increase dramatically about the mid-1980's and then will de- crease to near the 1980 levels by the end of the decade. The alluvial aquifers or surface-water systems that supply the various communities should be able to meet these additional needs without aquifer depletion. Excessive groundwater withdrawals may occur at Beulah and Zap during the population peak, but the losses will be made up by recharge in later years. (3) To 2000 The two Synthane plants of the scenario will be constructed between 1990 and 2000. Both plants will be in operation by 2000. By 2000, surface mining for all facilities will have disturbed 34,800 acres of land (calculated from Table 9-17). Due to runoff impoundment, this will r'esult in a loss of water to local streams of about 2,900 acre-ft/yr. The combined effect of runoff loss, disrupted land, and mine dewatering could significantly affect base flows of streams and aquifers. After conversion facilities are operating, the total water requirement assuming high wet cooling and the expected load fac- tors (Table 9-16) will be 49,000 acre-ft/yr. This requirement is 5 percent of Lake Sakakawea's minimum discharge and 0.3 percent of its average annual discharge. These withdrawals should not have a significant effect on water supplies. However, they may cause some increase in downstream pollutant concentrations be- cause of the loss of higher quality water. This effect—mainly an increase in total dissolved solids—is difficult to evaluate quantitatively. As in the previous decade, population levels in the commu- nities of the scenario area during the 1990-2000 decade will in- crease to a high level in the mid-1990's, then decrease toward the end of the decade. The aquifers and rivers used by all the communities except Beulah should be able to meet the increased water needs without significant aquifer depletion. At Beulah, the groundwater withdrawals may exceed the recharge to the Knife River aquifer temporarily, but the losses would be made up after the population declines. The middecade population peak will again increase the stress on the quality of water in local shallow aquifers because of ex- cess septic tank usage and leakage from waste stabilization ponds. The renovative capacity of the substrata is not unlimited, and continued introduction of septic tank and stabilization pond effluent will probably lead eventually to aquifer contamination. 765 ------- (4) After 2000 The second Synthane plant will begin operating in 2000, but most of the impacts after 2000 will occur after the various energy facilities shut down. The mines associated with the five energy conversion facil- ities will continue to produce the same impacts described for earlier decades as long as the plants operate. After the plants are shut down, the total mine area will be reclaimed and mine dewatering will cease. Although aquifer depletion will no longer be a concern, groundwater quality impacts will continue after the mine areas are reclaimed. However, over the long term, the oxida- tion and release of contaminants in the overburden will be com- pleted, and the rate of release will taper off. After the facilities are decommissioned, the runoff control systems will no longer be operating. The amount of runoff con- tamination will be the result of erosion of the berms and leakage in the pond liners from lack of maintenance. Some of the people who migrate into the area because of en- ergy development are likely to remain after the plants are shut down. If so, water supply demands on the alluvial aquifers and the Missouri River will continue. These sources should be able to meet the needs without significant depletion. Communities that have not built municipal sewage treatment plants will continue to present a water quality hazard to local aquifers through the use of septic tanks and waste stabilization ponds. As noted earlier, this hazard is cumulative in that the renovative capacity of the substrata will eventually be exhausted. By the end of the decade, wastewater treatment demands in communities with severe treatment problems should have decreased to levels within the plant capacities of the various communities. 9.3.5 Summary of Water Impacts Water impacts are caused by: (1) the water requirements of and effluents from the energy facilities, (2) the water require- ments of and wastewater generated by associated population in- creases, and (3) the coal mining process itself. Assuming the energy facilities hypothesized for the Beulah area are high wet cooled, the water requirements in acre-ft/yr are 23,884 for the power plant, 9,782 for the two Lurgi plants, and 15,342 for the two Synthane plants. Operation of all the facil- ities could require as much as 49,000 acre-ft/yr from Lake Sakakawea which is 0.3 percent of its average annual discharge and 5 percent of its minimum discharge. The use of intermediate wet cooling for the facilities operating at the expected load 766 ------- factor could reduce this demand by 72 percent. The water requirements at the mines will generally be met from dewatering operations. Wastewater from the energy facilities, in acre-ft/yr, average 2,119 from the power plant, 807 from each Lurgi facility, and 975 from each Synthane plant. The objective of zero dis- charge of pollutants set forth in the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (FWPCA)l will necessitate on-site entrapment and disposal of all of these effluents. As a result, effluents will be discharged into clay-lined, on-site evaporative holding ponds and runoff prevention systems will be installed to direct runoff1' to a holding pond or to a water treatment facility. These methods protect the quality of surface water systems (at least for the life of the plants), but groundwater quality may be reduced by leakage and leaching from the disposal ponds and pits. Municipal water use in the scenario area will total 4,645 acre-ft/yr by 2000 with intermittent demands related to labor- intensive construction as high as 4,000 acre-ft/yr. Most of this municipal water demand is expected to be in Bismarck-Mandan where the source is the Missouri River. Small quantities for other towns will be taken from groundwater. Increased population will also cause wastewater increases, totaling 3.4 MMgpd by 2000. Disposal of urban sanitary wastes may pose several hazards to groundwater quality, and overloaded waste stabilization ponds may lower the quality of surface water. Two cycles of rapid popula- tion increases followed by rapid decreases, coupled with the re- quirements of the FWPCA, will tax the ability of the communities to provide adequate municipal treatment. Special measures may have to be instituted, such as using the municipal effluent as process water at one or more of the energy conversion facilities, to prevent the municipal effluents from degrading surface-water quality. The alternative is building expensive treatment plants that will not be used efficiently over the long term. The coal mines for the hypothesized energy facilities will also have several indirect impacts on both groundwater and sur- face water. If mine dewatering is necessary, local shallow bed- rock aquifers in the Tongue River formation may be depleted. The result would be a lowering of water levels in wells or the drying up of wells, seeps, and springs. Additionally, bedrock recharge to alluvial aquifers and base flow to streams may be greatly 1 Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, Pub. L. 92-500, §§ 101, 301; 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976). 2Runoff will average 83 acre-ft/yr for each 1,000 acres of land disturbed by a mine or facility, totalling 5,800 acre-ft/yr by the year 2000. 767 ------- reduced or eliminated. Returning overburden to the mines during reclamation may change aquifer characteristics and infiltration rates. A total of 33,000 acres will be mined by 2000 and 84,400 acres over the life of all facilities. Overturning the over- burden will also bring to the surface materials that were formerly deeply buried. Oxidation and release of these materials (acid waters) could lower the quality of surface water and groundwater sources. Infiltrating precipitation may leach these materials and carry them directly as recharge to aquifers or indirectly to surface water sources either as springs or as base flow to streams, The potential pollution problem associated with the overburden will continue for several years after plant shutdown and will diminish slowly as oxidation and other reactions in the over- burden go to completion. Finally, during construction, the energy facilities may lower the quality (turbidity and dissolved solids content) of surface water because of soil disturbance. Accidental spills of fuels and lubricants may also enter the surface water system and infiltrate to groundwater systems. 9.4 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS 9.4.1 Introduction The hypothesized developments in the Beulah scenario will occur in three counties of west-central North Dakota: Mercer, Oliver, and McLean. Of the five facilities, three will be in Mercer County; Oliver and McLean Counties will contain one facility each. Most of the anticipated social and economic im- pacts can be attributed either directly or indirectly to the attendant population increases. This analysis focuses on Mercer County because the facilities are centrally located around Beulah and because the county has several other small towns which will be affected by the hypothetical developments. 9.4.2 Existing Conditions Together, the three counties cover 3,828 square miles and had a 1974 population of 19,757 (a population density of 5.2 persons per square mile). Mercer County alone encompasses 1,042 square miles and had a 1974 population of 6,400 (about six persons per square mile) . The area is served by several state highways and two railroads: the Burlington Northern running east and west, and the Milwaukee, St. Paul, and Sault Ste. Marie (Soo Line) running north and south. Between 1950 and 1970, Mercer County's population decreased by 29 percent. The state's population also decreased over this period, but its 1 percent change was minor compared to the loss in Mercer County (Table 9-22). This decline continued at a 768 ------- TABLE 9-22: POPULATION, MERCER COUNTY AND NORTH DAKOTA, 1950-1970 Mercer County North Dakota POPULATION 1950 8,686 619,636 1960 6,805 632,446 1970 6,175 617,761 PERCENT POPULATION CHANGE 1950-60 ' -21.7 +2.1 1960-70 -10 -2.3 1950-70 -29 - 1 Source: U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1950 Census of Population; 1960 Census of Population; and 1970 Census of Population. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, various dates. slower pace into the early 1970's; the county population decreased 6.5 percent (from 6,600 to 6,175) between 1967 and 1972. There are six population centers in Mercer County, ranging from 100 to 1,200 people each. In addition to Beulah, incorpor- ated towns in the county are: Stanton (the county seat), Golden Valley, Hazen, Pick City, and Zap. Unlike the county trend, population in the three largest towns (Beulah, Stanton, and Hazen) has remained fairly stable over the past 20 years. The major loss has been from the unincorporated rural areas. Agriculture dominates the economy of Mercer County. In 1970, 33 percent of the labor force was employed in agriculture, (more than 10 times the national average) as compared to 21 percent statewide. The rest of the labor force was scattered throughout industry, with no other predominating sector (Table 9-23). How- ever, the dominance of agriculture is on the decline in Mercer County, reflecting a statewide trend. Total cropland, land in farms, and the number of farms have all declined from 1969 to 1974 in both Mercer and Oliver Counties.1 Mining and utilities sectors now generate more income than any other sector except !U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1974 Census of Agriculture; Preliminary Reports, Mercer County and Oliver County, North Dakota. Printing Office, 1976. Washington, D.C. Government 769 ------- TABLE 9-23: EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY GROUP IN MERCER COUNTY, 1970 INDUSTRY GROUP Agriculture, forest, and fisheries Mining Construction and manufacturing (Total) Food and kindred products Printing, publishing, and products Transportation, communication Utilities and sanitary sewers Retail trade Food and dairy products store Restaurants Trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Miscellaneous services Public administration Total Employment NUMBER EMPLOYED 713 115 151 6 3 70 175 210 69 49 210 71 388 91 2,321 PERCENT OF TOTAL 33.4 5.9 7.1 0.3 0.1 3.3 8.2 10.5 3.4 2.4 9.8 3.3 18.2 4.3 100 Source: U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Census of Population; 1970; General Social and Economic Character is tics"! Washington, D.C. : Government Printing Office, 1971. agriculture.1 Both trends largely reflect the coal resource developments already under way in the area. Both legislative and administrative functions in Mercer County are exercised by the Board of County Commissioners which is composed of three members serving 4-year terms. The Mercer County Planning Commission, consisting of nine members, serves under the County Board. The Commission's primary responsibilities consist of planning and zoning activities in all unincorporated areas of the county. Decisions of the Planning Commission are subject to approval by the County Commissioners. In 1967, the majority of local government expenditures (60.3 percent) in the county went into education. Other major ^.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Local Area Personal Income." Survey of Current Business, Vol. 54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75. 770 ------- expenditures included: highways, 19.4 percent; public welfare, 3.8 percent; and health and hospitals, 0.4 percent. The total local expenditure for that year was $1.8 million. Law enforce- ment in Mercer County is handled by a sheriff and five deputies. The county is served by one hospital, located in Hazen, which has 39 beds and two full-time doctors. The county also provides a public health nurse who travels throughout the county. Although Stanton is the county seat, almost all the retail and professional services are provided by the two largest towns, Beulah and Hazen. Beulah is governed by a six-member city council and a mayor. There is no full-time planner; the city engineer performs planning services for the town when necessary. However, there is a plan- ning commission which meets once a month, and the town has a mas- ter plan and a zoning code. Medical services consist of a clinic staffed by one doctor and one dentist, an eye clinic, and an am- bulance service. Law enforcement is provided by one policeman and one county sheriff's deputy. The fire department consists of a 58-man volunteer force and two fire trucks. In addition, the city owns and operates its own water and sewage treatment system. Hazen is governed by a mayor and four councilmen. The new position of city planner was created to deal with growth from energy development. It is now filled on a part-time basis by the city manager, but there are plans to fund it on a full-time basis starting in 1977. There is also a voluntary planning commission composed of nine members who meet twice a month. Law enforce- ment is provided by one policeman and one county sheriff's deputy. Fire protection is provided by a volunteer fire department. The city owns and operates its own water and sewer systems, which are presently operating at full capacity. Both Beulah and Hazen appear to have adequate physical capacity in their public service institutions to provide for the needs of their current residents. Further, both cities showed budget surpluses in fiscal 1973.l However, the pressures created by rapid growth could require rapid expansion of facilities and services in these communities, and thus a sudden increase in their public service employment. Under existing legislation, the cities are not prepared to do this; the maximum indebtedness of North Dakota cities cannot, by law, exceed 5 percent of their total assessed valuations. Thus, Beulah and Hazen are authorized debts of only $87,600 and $56,400, respectively. Given today's costs, such sums will not allow much expansion of public services in !This is typical of North Dakota's recent experience. The state general fund has a surplus equal to almost a full year's budget, and voters recently approved a reduction in sales tax rates. See the Denver Post, November 6, 1976. 771 ------- these communities. Further, even if a referendum should pass by a vote of two-thirds of the local residents, this limit can only be raised an additional 3 percent. 9.4.3 Factors Producing Impacts Two factors associated with energy facilities dominate as the cause of social and economic impacts: manpower requirements and taxes levied on the energy facilities. Tax rates are tied to capital costs, and/or the value of coal extracted, and/or the value of energy produced. Taxes which apply to the Beulah sce- nario facilities (a power plant, two Lurgi, and two Synthane gasi- fication plants and their associated mines) are: property tax, sales tax, severance tax, royalty payments for federally owned coal, and an energy conversion tax. The manpower requirements for each type of scenario facility and its associated surface coal mine are given in Table 9-24 and 9-25. For the mines, manpower requirement for operation exceeds peak construction manpower requirement by 2.5 times. However, the reverse is true for the conversion facilities; peak construc- tion manpower requirement exceeds the operation requirement by 5 (power plant) to 7 times (Lurgi and Synthane plants). In com- bination, the total manpower requirement for each mine-conversion facility increases from the first year when construction begins, peaks, and then declines as construction activity ceases. Peak total manpower requirement is about 5,600 for each gasification plant and 3,200 for the power plant. The fraction of peak total manpower requirement needed for operation of the mine and plant combination is about 0.2 for the gasification plants and 0.4 for the power plant. The total manpower required for operation of the plant-mine combination is about the same for each scenario facility and its associated mine. A property tax and sales tax which are tied to capital costs, a severance tax and royalty payments which are tied to coal value, and an energy conversion tax which is tied to energy produced generate revenue for the state and local governments. The capital costs of the conversion facilities and mines hypothesized for the Beulah scenario are given in Table 9-26. Costs are about 1,160 millions of 1975 dollars for each mine-gasification plant and 1,525 for the mine-power plant. The property tax, most of which goes to local government, is levied on the cash value of the mines only (approximately the total capital cost given in Table 9-26) after the construction of the mine is completed. Sales tax, most of which goes to the state government, is levied on materials and equipment only (Table 9-26) as the materials and equipment are purchased during construction. The current sales tax rate in North Dakota is 4 percent, and the property tax rate in Mercer, 772 ------- TABLE 9-24: MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A 3,000 MEGAWATT POWER PLANT AND ASSOCIATED MINE3 YEAR FROM START 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE MINE 0 58 338 328 338 270 0 POWER PLANT 0 460 2,220 2,265 2,345 1,990 720 0 OPERATION WORK FORCE MINE 0 440 440 883 883 POWER PLANT 0 109 109 218 436 436 TOTAL IN ANY ONF YEAR 0 518 2,558 2,702 3,232 2,918 2,039 1,319 MWe = megawatt-electric o Data are for a 3,000 MWe power plant and a surface coal mine large enough to supply that power plant (about 19.2 million tons- per year) and are from Carasso, M. , et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975; data uncertainty is -10 to +20 percent. Oliver, and McLean counties is about 1.48 percent.1 The severance tax (of which 40 percent goes to local government, 30 percent to state government, and 30 percent is saved) is levied at a rate of 5 percent on the value of the coal mined. Royalty payments, of which 50 percent is returned to state and local government, are about 12.5 percent of the value of federally owned coal.2 How- ever, all royalties are retained by Indian tribes when the coal is on the reservation. The energy conversion tax, most of which goes to state government, is levied at a rate of 0.25 mill per kWh on the power plant and $0.10 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) on the gasification plants. No energy conversion tax is collected on conversion facilities located on Indian reservations. JThis is the effective, average property tax rate. The actual rate is computed using a number of assessment ratios, since certain kinds of equipment (e.g., pollution control equipment) are taxed at different rates or may be exempt. '2This is the federal government's target rate; actual rates will vary from facility to facility. 773 ------- H s Q W li H U o CO CO Oi w ffi EH CO H O in CN I * ^ 3 W £_, -< 2 2 w ^ H J3 O d-l U OH o CM g O £g 12 O H ! w 04 o H u 0 CM ,, rV i 0 H EH U D EH CO O U EH 1 Av Z O H EH U H CM H CO f^ U w H g EH z 3 A >2 O H EH < U CM H CO O W g YEAR FROM START OCNO^mrHOOkD CO CTi (T> fN f~~ ** OO rH t~- rH £> t~- O m m oo rH O CTi CTi CT( 00 00 00 in m in o oo oo r^- r~~ CN CM ^ ^f O (Ti f^ CN CN O O 00 00 1^5 VD ^O VO VO CN •<* CN o CN o in o CN o ro co CTI in rH rH iH rH -------- 4J i 3 0 in U) T3 G 0 ro >lrH CP x: c CT> (0 O O. C (U -r-l 0) W 0) fd o •H 4-1 rd SH O o. o u CD 0) 4-1 C •H e 0) tn 3 V-l (-J J-J rd 0> 4-) H QJ x; - u . 0) g m SM 0 - 4-1 O •• H CO . ro r—, co m O ^i rd "H O O< M rH 4-1 rd rd 0) g U U U rd O M V-i M U 3 rd 4H CO W -H >i 0) O rd >H C SH rd rtj • d) >H 4-1 D-jU CM C C (1) CO rd C o C rd M 13 C g c o rd -P a C rd O rH C -H O rH •H rH (U 4-1 -rH G rd E rrj O A •H oo 4-1 Ui . (—' T—l • >—\| •H O >i W rH CO rd CP4J CU 3 A rd 0 4J X) co a • o CO CN O CN •H O n o rji4J C •H 4-1 0) C SH rd CLi rd H 4J rd 1 _p [ i rd rrj vo Q XI rd rH a, n) 4-1 (Ti CO rd 04 4-1 rd 774 ------- CO H EH H J H U PM O H EH U D tt EH CO § U ti tn rH Q (0 H O O in co OH O O tn co C w o K -rl EH g H U CN I J EH 0 EH .£> O EH H CO O EH W 2 U OS H D W OH PJ EH D EH 2 Q CO '""' 5S O CJ CO D O ta O Q < 2 w u CO H s CO EH < W H Q a p^ £5 p_j & < H EH D H n CN rH (Tl •<* n rH CTl ^T T O C 0 •H -P rd u •H t-* l 1 QJ -H S tn a rd to O — QJ 0 T3 •H 0 QJ MH -P 0 C 0 •H - rd § rH n ,d 5! •H «-' -P O Co rd -P >iin Pu C CO CN rd — C rH M O CU O -P •H C en rH -H rd rH QJ fJlrH QJ 5 M Cu > 0 d C Cu J 0 u CO 00 ^ 0 rH O CN rH rH oo CT^ ^j •* CN CN VD CN OO in n CN "dj1 Q"^ f^ o in in , — \| ^_^ Si ^ ^ r\ tn >i >i -P QJ Qi dia c -P -P a a a s ^o . rH CN OO CTl rd • • -* O -P QJ £ rH C •P O d >i •H U rH >H rH 0000 t/5 PTI pr_[ pr i tn rd Q) QJ tn O o •H rH •H e II I>1 QJ -p ^ rrj T3 !H QJ a 4J QJ QJ O 4H •H rH U -P -H 0 ^ QJ d rH O QJ 1 C •P O -P -H fd rH \|5 rH rd -H cng e n II -a m QJ O i s in C -P C O c CM rd X! Cu QJ > N rH •H QJ tn -p •H H in •H rH O QJ rd fi m pq QJ QJ -P EH o -p • rH i3 rd O -P QJ QJ tn QJ M in O U • rH a cu O -P O -£ o o O tn QJ -p tn pg rd ^ rH >i rd •• -P U • •i—4 ii i ^ e-H rd o H QJ SH rd C HH U •H rH QJ - M O en rd o C •H tn tn "O -H C O rd C rd O rH 'H Pu rd G t3 d fd QJ QJ CO •P O tn co •n M. tn T) -H rH rt £ O -P > QJ >H C CN rd -H rd T3 '—I •P QJ C1J rrj N TJ Q -H O « tn a QJ rH QJ QJ U QJ Q. rd •P rd •O -P d rd QJ rH rd fd H d QJ CQ QJ -P O MH •O QJ N •H tn QJ -P O QJ • M QJ rd C •H en g QJ •H 'O 4-1 QJ •H 4-) rH rd •H -H U U rd O MH tn tn QJ rd rd tn rG 4-> 4J -H co c rd O £ 4-> 4-) C rd rd QJ •H C in O rH d rH i-5 O o S QJ EH rH o rd 775 ------- 9.4.4 Impacts The nature and extent of the social and economic impacts caused by these factors depends on the size and character of the community or communities in which workers and their families live, on the state and local tax structure, and on many other social and economic factors. A scenario, which calls for the development of a power plant, two Lurgi and two Synthane gasifi- cation plants, and their associated mines according to a specified time schedule (see Table 9-1), is used here as a vehicle through which the nature and extent of the impacts are explored. The discussion relates each impact type to the hypothetical scenario and includes population impacts, housing and school impacts, economic impacts, fiscal impacts, social and cultural impacts, and political and governmental impacts. A. Population Impacts Most of the social and economic impacts in the Beulah scenario will result from population increases, initially during construc- tion and later during operation of the facilities. The initial major effect on the Beulah area will be caused by construction of the electric generating plant beginning in 1975, followed in 1977 by work on the first Lurgi gasification plant. The construction employment results in the sharply cyclical employment pattern of Table 9-27 (based on the employment multipliers in Table 9-28). Construction work in this scenario extends throughout the 1975-2000 time period, with the brief exception of 1988 and 1989. The entire employment-induced popu- lation change is assumed to occur within the existing towns and is allocated among those in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean Counties as well as the Bismarck-Mandan area.a The population estimates are shown in Table 9-29 and Figures 9-5 and 9-6. Because of construction period peaks and the location of the plants in this scenario, Mercer County is expected to nearly double in population by 1985, fall to around 8,600 in 1990, rise to 14,000 in the mid-1990's, then level off at just over 10,000 by the end of the century. Beulah and Hazen, the largest towns in the county, will closely reflect this trend. The early sce- nario activity will take place in Oliver County, where the total population will increase rapidly until 1980, then gradually Population changes were estimated by means of the economic base model (See Part II, Introduction) and the multipliers in Table 11-28. The overall estimates were allocated among those towns in the Beulah area within an hour's drive of each facility. The allocation model assumes that larger towns and closer towns should attract a greater proportion of new residents and balances the effects of population and commuting distance. 776 ------- TABLE 9-27: CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION EMPLOYMENT IN ENERGY DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO, 1975-2000 (person-years) YEAR 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 CONSTRUCTION 520 2,560 2,630 2,870 3,050 3,600 4,830 2,690 190 790 2,880 4,830 2,660 0 0 30 190 790 2,880 4,830 2,660 190 790 2,880 4,830 2,600 OPERATION 0 0 110 630 660 1,570 2,160 2,410 2,410 2, 400 2,650 3,240 3,490 3,490 3,490 3,490 3,490 3,490 3,740 4,330 4,580 4,580 4,580 4,830 5,410 5,660 TOTAL 520 2,560 2,740 3,500 3,710 5,170 6,990 5,100 2,600 3,190 5,530 8,070 6,150 3,490 3,490 3,520 3,680 4,280 6,620 9,160 7,240 4,770 5,370 7,710 10,240 8,260 Source: Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975. 777 ------- V .^ 4-1 iH _ c -a o O w c s \^\ E IB ni Q, Cn st 0 - C A* rrt N -rt 1^, QJ 4J 4-1 W > -rt 18 1-H O Cn 41 IH J 4J 01 C H CO pr H j f\ HH ^ h-l C3 2 P^ —' H EH B j^ fv. t-J O £•» ^.^ Q i-^ ^ ^N H M § K-, £ O J a w u M ,J CM r-( g^ ^ -^ £ EH Z £ CM 2 U u rrt CO 03 u u > a: CO Z o M ^H u OM EH CO Z 0 u * w rrt EH p P5 w CM O K ?* w >H ro in r— r~ «... O 0 O O in r- o (N .... O O rrt rrt 01 ^* 01 o r- GO oo o O1 O1 Ol O rrt rrt rrt (M 1 1 t 1 in o in o r~- co co rji C1 ON C1 01 rrt rrt i-H rrt ^ co a rH J CM H EH D £ W O iJ CM £ W X. 72 O M £-, H EH rrt £> rH EH U in o in ro C 41 U o a. ai U O CO C • IB 4) tJ rrt • CM Cnfc, C >H •rt - 4) C • 3 to < 0 41 CM 0 - CEO 0 rrt -rt 0 O IH x; -P M 4) U 41 iJ 41 •rt rrt •a cnw 3 C 4J -rt T3 in TI c 3 IB rrt rrt IB U 41 IH C C 01 -rt -rt > £ 4) - CO 01 rrt C IB Cn-rt o C (8 O •rt rrt C CM in •rt E -P IB (8 IB -P X 0) 0 U IB IH Q 0) fi •P IH X! 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U D - C O 4J Cn C • rt x; 01 re S . IB 4J 0 X O C OM UliB - c 0) O C -rt c -P cm to C O IB 4) 4) rrt tr > £ E IB to K 4-1 4J 4J < H IH M C O IB 4) -rt z a E • IB 4) e 4J -H .4 D O IH M 0 IH O 4-1 UH » -rt Di 0) >i > 4) 3 •> -P C CS T3 (B 4J 0 10 Q XI IH o z c •rt in c to 4) J-! 4-1 IB CM 4J C 41 e a 0 4) 4) D >- tJi 41 C W 4) > • rt 4J 10 C ^H 41 4J rH i UH O 4J U IB a. E M O •rt E 0 c o rt W C CO 4J H >H "D UH 4) C IB > 10 IH . rt Q rrt a >i IB D cn - IH 01 41 0) 4-i •P C O IB K IB 4-> a co - E IB iH •POO O 4-1 -rt X IB E IB r-t O Q O C XI O x; IB u 4J J H j^l O rrt 41 z 10 x; C EH o • ' -rt . 4J .. D 10 >• • z -a 41 4-1 - C CO 0 C Cn 0 01 in Cn W 10 in IB fc, < CJ •» >• . T 4J E r- C IB Oi 3 IH rrt O Cn U 0 - to in IH CM O 01 •rt O in E vj 4) 0 4) DCS 4J 41 - . 4 4) c 4) U fc 01 IH 4) E E 3 CO 4) 01 CO [~ 01 rrt >1 iH o -p IB 0 43 IB rrt 10 C 0 iH O -rt 3 O 4-> O W • IB 01 C Z 01 r-l O OS IB -rt 0) k 01 C CO 3 -rt C C -P > O 18 3 Q in rrt O < CM -rt CO iH E 4-1 Cn 0) •• IB < 4-> • 4) Ul rrt OllH UH >,rrt CJ H UIUH WICIWIU O CO H UH 0 c 0 •rt 01 0! -3 O 01 •rt 73 fQ IH 0 UH 01 in 1 in a a .. VC r- 01 rrt ^ iH O) cn 4) IB IH CM .. . Z - Y to O >t 5 41 Z . IB U .rt }H 4) <2 C 10 •p •rt 1— t o a o IH 4J 01 g C O z UH O . 4-J ^ 0 a 4) K (_H IB c •rt Pu _ 41 •rt UH 0 CM IH 4) O S C o •rt •p u 3 IH •p 01 O U . to IB Xi 0) U IH IH 13 IB 0) rrt CO 10 4) in OS 3 IH 4J 01 C 4) rt S 10 C 4-1 >rt O IB 4) -P UH 3 41 O £ in 4) E rt O Frt IH Dj UH -rt •P TJ rrt 41 3 -P E a 10 3 T3 O < •P >i C rrt 0) DK co E 4) -rt IH CO a 4) 4-1 M O e to 4) 01 •rt G rrt 4) a >, •rt 0 •P rrt rrt Q^ 3 E E 41 4! C> K rrt 4) Cn .£ C EH-rt in • rrl in c 01 rrt - in iH 01 4) > i» 0) U Cn 4) C Q -rt J< - H C O 0 3 • rt 01 - to c •rt 4) 1 T) 0 rrt U -rt x: rrt O IB C XI O 4J •rt -rt Ch 3 4) « in 4) •P rrt 01 a 41 3 S O U •a rrt -O o 01 •rt •• to , IB O E Q UH • O in Q) c in N 0 4) ••-< •u -P in Cn IB C Cn >^ •rt 4) rH ~ iH -rt to Cn g (0 D^ ft S (0 u-i 778 ------- ------- TABLE 9-27: CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION EMPLOYMENT IN BEULAH ENERGY DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO, 1975-2000 (person-years) YEAR 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 CONSTRUCTION 520 2,560 2,630 2,870 3,050 3,600 4,830 2,690 190 790 2,880 4,830 2,660 0 0 30 190 790 2,880 4,830 2,660 190 790 2,880 4,830 2,600 OPERATION 0 0 110 630 660 1,570 2,160 2,410 2,410 2,400 2,650 3,240 3,490 3,490 3,490 3,490 3,490 3,490 3,740 4,330 4,580 4,580 4,580 4,830 5,410 5,660 TOTAL 520 2,560 2,740 3,500 3,710 5,170 6,990 5,100 2,600 3,190 5,530 8,070 6,150 3,490 3,490 3,520 3,680 4,280 6,620 9,160 7,240 4,770 5,370 7,710 10,240 8,260 Source: Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975. 777 ------- 1 1 PH (^ J^ Z JJ iH rn C TJ O W 0) C 2 U E ra m a. en UJ 0 - C f-H N -H }T1 Q) 4J Jj S1 > -H ra J 0) M IH ID tn a [£] >1-H O rn C" "U ffl H J JJ 0) C fti ~ £2 H en Q-" H n r\ "1 1—4 D 22 o \_/ H r_\| "11 "1 hHl ID /^l t-M o PH Q w ^ ^S r ... s J2 M Kg IS o rrj 1/1 CX U M ex H £-. D EH Z £ O 3 (X u CJ in CD -x w M OH H Z O M EH CJ CX EH tn z 0 CJ % o rH EH rv . tw Wj O CX ,e( U ro in r^ r~- r * * • 0000 in r~ o CM > • • « O O rH rH CPi ^ ffi O r- oo co o rH rH rH CM 1 1 1 1 in o in o r~* oo oo c^ C> C^ 0> C^ rH rH rH rH ^ tn .X M J ex EH D £ w (4 o CX £ M Z o M EH r-H CX o ex IX EH rH J> H EH CJ in o in ro C 01 h O a 0) CJ O tn C • (0 0) .J •-! • CX Cn Cn C IH ••^ ^ ill C • 3 IH < 0 0) CX o - CEO 0 rH -H O O M X. 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ON >1 JJ C 0) TJ 3 -O rH 0 C O C IB O H U CD "O 3 3 03 U M X) SH C 0) 0) .C CD « Cn > TJ CO £ CD -H -H c 10 JJ r-l D3 Q5 r-> g Q o E 0 0 in r~ iH o 0 o rH 0 o ro k. ro rH o o o k. ro r— i O O T - IN rH O 0 3 jj rf: o JJ c 3 0 O c ro TJ c ro S i O M 10 E to -H CC O O r- in o o (N if O O o k. o o o rH k. ON in o 0 in k. CO in 0 o ON k. rr 1 rJ EH O CD 3 -a Tj" M 10 CD -H CD C 3 JS T> rH JJ £ O 0 C 'C l-i O C •H C HH O 3 rC O O CD >H M rJ CO CD JJ O O> r-l CD M X JJ O in CO V-l 3 1-1 ,C r-l ro rO O 10 CD C O -r-l JJ (HO £ O CD -H JJ 3 EH O JJ O JJ r-l tO 'H CO C JJ CD > CD CD CO O -r-t > O C 13 JJ -H MO U J-1 CD O JJ 1C 1C O, C C JJ CD C H in ro E O CD • J3 >I-H JJ o jj O J-> rH rH O IB 73 CD O-i 3 C E E r-l M IB 3 CD JJ JJ 10 CO -H O CO C C ON IB O O CO ON CD U CO JJ . O >, CD J3 J3 3 CHrH rj> io r-i vj ^5 3 JJ JJ CD 10 0 CO C C ,-1 tn c CD o J3 -H O CO JJ .c o UH ro JJ O CD JJ C M C C CD JJ CD -H -C C CO U 3 3 10 U CO O CD CD rO E co a c CD to -i-t rH ro CD c O en 0 CD CD IH -H a CD CD 3 i > j3 en j jj ro JJ to to ro CD (0 ro rH rH C CD 3 (1) to U fjjrH > -H O rH -H J5 CVH O JJ •o rH CD CO ro -P cu „ ,. r-l (0 -1H 10 CD 3 E --i CD & JJ -r-l -H >, ro JJ E CD 2 to ro 0 J3 TO W n-i JJ JJ 00 O C o 10 - CD O c • JJ 01 779 ------- c rt en 3 O 0 -H -P (tf O Total Mercer County Rural Hazen Beulah Stanton Zap Golden Valley 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 9-5: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR BEULAH SCENARIO AREA, 1975-2000 780 ------- 80 tf £ rd 0 x: o -H -P flj 0 cu 60- 40- 20- '..•"•• :v'.v.':" '•''"' .-•"'' :-;;:/^ .... ..-••:' B i McLean Oliver ismarck Randan County County 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 9-6: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR OLIVER AND McLEAN COUNTIES, AND BISMARCK-MANDAN, 1975-2000 781 ------- ch a population of about 3,350 by 2000. Much xopment activity in Oliver County will focus on , which is expected to double in population to Ration of McLean County, the site of the last Cation facility, will increase by nearly 3,000 •t <£fte95. This increase will be concentrated in the "^o ^bod, which will grow by nearly a factor of 5 be- ^ gjd 2000. Finally, the Bismarck-Mandan urban aresi ^east should grow steadily to 75,700 (a 61-per'cent ver the period. The largest absolute population growth -t\3ee,cenario is expected to occur in Bismarck and Mandan. Vfl^sex breakdowns of the projected population in Mercer tllow estimates of housing and educational needs. Since : the Beulah scenario developments will be located in .• County, the effects of the construction population booms .at county are of particular interest. The 1970 age-sex .ributions and data from community surveys in the West were ,d to estimate age-sex distributions for new employees and eir families.1 The resulting distribution for Mercer County nows the effects of construction activity. During heavy con- struction periods (e.g., 1985 and 1995 in Table 9-30), the 20-34 age groups, particularly males, are predominant. However, other age groups also appear to vary in relation to the amount of energy construction. B. Housing and School Impacts Housing demand in the Mercer County area will be highly dependent on construction activity. The number of households in the county will reach a peak of 5,700 in 1995 but will level off to 4,200 in 2000; this compares to a 1975 level of 1,950 house- holds (Figure 9-7, Table 9-31). The peak housing demands will be met largely by mobile homes, as is common in short-term situa- tions. These homes will be located mainly in and around Beulah, the town most affected by the cyclical changes in population. If housing construction in the county keeps up with the projected needs, over 1,200 single-family and 500 multifamily units will be built by the year 2000 (Table 9-32). Currently, about 12 percent of the county's housing consists of mobile homes,2 a proportion fountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, December 1975. 2Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted" Communities in Federal Region VIII.Denver,Colo.:Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975. 782 ------- 9~30: AGE Femal< 65- 55-64 35-54 Over 25- 34 20-24 17- 19 14-ie 6-13 0-5 TOTAL Male 65- 55-64 35-54 Over 25- 34 20-24 17-19 14-16 6-13 0-5 TOTAL „„„,„„ 1975 • 057 •061 •115 .051 .027 •020 .035 • 091 050 507 1980 .032 •040 • 105 •110 ..042 .022 .024 .067 044 486 1985 020 .033 •121 •130 • 047 •023 •019 .055 026 474 1990 •036 .059 •180 .072 .018 .012 .031 • 061 016 485 • 051 .065 •118 • 054 • 019 • 023 .030 .083 050 493 1995 •018 .035 •133 •131 •041 •019 • 020 •050 025 472 • 029 .044 •116 •128 • 044 .025 .021 • 063 044 2000 •024 •068 •204 .066 •015 •012 •025 .050 017 481 .021 .037 .140 •152 • 054 '023 • 019 .054 026 • 038 .067 .206 • 077 • Oil .008 .032 .061 016 •020 • 041 •155 -153 •044 • 019 • 020 • 050 025 S°Urce: Tah t • • 027 • 079 •235 • 067 • 009 •010 .025 050 519 do -ot aiways 783 ------- entary Secondary 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE , 9-7 S COUNTY 00 784 ------- TABLE 9-31: NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IN MERCER COUNTY, 1975-2000 YEAR 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS3 l,950d 3,000 4,500 3,400 5,700 4,200 NUMBER OF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL CHILDREN l,100d 1,400 1,500 1,300 1,750 1,250 NUMBER OF SECONDARY SCHOOL CHILDREN0 400d 480 540 540 690 620 Includes single-person households, which are about 20 percent of the total. Ages 6-13 plus 25 percent adjustment to improve estimates. CAges 14-16 plus 25 percent adjustment to improve estimates, Estimated. TABLE 9-32: DISTRIBUTION OF NEW HOUSING NEEDS BY TYPE OF DWELLING3 PERIOD 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990° 1990-1995 1995-2000° MOBILE HOME 420 580 -890 850 -860 SINGLE- FAMILY 410 610 0 190 0 MULT I - FAMILY 130 180 0 360 -140 OTHERb 90 120 -210 300 -300 Compiled from Table 9-31 and data adapted from Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: West Regional Commission, 1975, p. 103. Old For example, campers and recreational vehicles. °Negative values indicate dwelling removal, under the assumption that mobile homes will be the first to be removed during periods of population decline. 785 ------- that would more than triple in such peak construction years as 1985 and 1995. School enrollment impacts show another trend, with differ- ences in timing between elementary and high schools (Table 9-31). The overall peak will be reached in 1995,, when over 2,400 students will be enrolled (72 percent in elementary schools). In terms of the school financial situation, the current surplus of 30 class- rooms would allow any need through 1990 to be met with current facilities (Table 9-33) . A short-term need for 15 additional classrooms in 1986 and in the 1990's suggests that low-cost tem- porary classrooms or double sessions could largely solve the de- mand problem without building any new, permanent schools. Annual operating expenditures for schools in Mercer County should be almost double the present $1.5 million level during the 1990's; however, the average annual budget during the scenario period should be less than 50 percent above current expenditures. The Bismarck-Mandan school districts will have to build over 200 class- rooms at a cost of over $14 million because those districts are already operating near their capacities. C. Economic Impacts The economy of the Beulah area is still predominantly agricultural, particularly Oliver County where 58.8 percent of 1972 personal income was derived from agriculture. The 1972 levels for McLean and Mercer Counties were 42.0 percent and 27.2 percent, respectively. In that year, the mining, construction, and utility industries were already important to Mercer County, providing 38 percent of personal income for its inhabitants.1 As energy developments increase in the area, additional lands will be taken out of agricultural production, but employment opportun- ities in energy-related sectors will expand. Consequently, the Mercer County economy should become even more energy dependent, and the other counties will 'also see a percentage decline in their reliance on agriculture. Largely because of the change in industry mix areawide, the income distribution will rise to reflect the higher paying employ- ment2 opportunities for both local residents and newcomers. For example, in Mercer County the highest incomes will occur during the 1986 and 1995 construction booms, when nonlocals will be a ^.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Local Area Personal Income." Survey of Current Business, Vol. 54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75. 2In recent years, high agricultural prices have resulted in high farm incomes, often exceeding the projected energy operation salaries. Over the long term, however, energy occupations will be higher paying. 786 ------- PO 00 I ERATING DTTURES ions of lars) c & 2 rH rH ° W rH O _, O. -rt -D S X E ™ W ~ ^ ^pv S E) in in J? EH C IH < H ° " oi^H -g W rH O z W — 05 CLASSROOMS AT 21 STUDEN1 PER ROOM3 PH ^. L/l i-5 W ^ C g* I5i « COUNTY O"> O ^" o in o 1 — CO CO C^ O^ O M Ci 0) E ro co TT in m (N fN CN T ^D in o o in in PO in O (N (N in \£> p- o "^c TJ r- r- i— i o o vr? 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"""f E 0) 3 rH > c ro 0) i-i Q r-H 3 ra 4-1 >i 3 ro en 4-1 2 'H U 0) <: >H c •D O W 787 ------- TABLE 9-34: PROJECTED INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR MERCER COUNTY, 1975-2000 (in 1975 dollars) INCOME Less than $4,000 4,000- 5,999 6,000- 7,999 8,000- 9,999 10,000-11,999 12,000-14,999 15,000-24,999 25,000-over Median Household 19753 .188 ,.122 .114 .087 .084 .110 .234 .061 9,700 1980 .105 .071 .065 .072 .089 .117 .381 .100 14,500 1985 .074 .053 .045 .063 .092 .119 .434 .119 16,200 1990 .097 .067 .061 .075 .094 .140 .389 .094 14,300 1995 .066 .049 .042 .066 .095 .130 .439 .112 16,200 2000 .082 .058 .052 .075 .097 .136 .407 .093 15,000 Source: Tables 9-24, 9-25, and 9-26 and Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, B.C.: Old West Regional Commission, December 1975. u,S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Household Income in 1969 for States, SMSA's, Cities, and Counties;1970. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973. large part of the labor force (Table 9-34). A projected overall rise of over 50 percent in median income by 2000 includes the ex- pansion of the local economy and employment of local people as well as immigrants to the area. The increases in the service sector will be concentrated in local retailing activities, particularly in Beulah. Beulah, Hazen, Underwood, and Washburn currently serve as local trade centers, whereas Mandan and Bismarck are the regional centers for wholesale and retail activity.1 The primary change expected from energy de- velopment is a growing predominance of Beulah in the Mercer-Oliver- McLean county area. Because of the attraction of Bismarck and Mandan, no major secondary industries are expected to locate near Beulah. Mercer County communities must provide public services for the increased population. Beulah and Hazen, in particular, will require extensive additions to their water and sewage treatment :0wens, Wayne W., and Elmer C. Vangsness. Trade Areas in North Dakota, Extension Bulletin No. 20. Fargo, N.D.: North Dakota State University, Cooperative Extension Service, 1973. 788 ------- facilities through 1985 (Table 9-35).' Facilities capable of meeting the 1985 demands should be adequate through 2000, except for the 1995 construction boom. The Bismarck-Mandan area also will have an early capital need (before 1980) for over $22 million, which will become somewhat more gradual for the rest of the period. Other capital needs, especially for health care facilities, will demand considerable expenditures, as indicated in Table 9-35. In terms of operating expenditures, Beulah's municipal bud- get should triple to nearly $600,000 during the peak construction years. Hazen will be affected much the same as Beulah in absolute terms, which means a much greater proportional growth (Table 9-36). Since energy developments will be located in rural areas and the associated population will settle in the towns, some revenues will not add directly to the tax base of impacted towns. The temporary removal of land from agriculture, the avail- ability of well-paying jobs, and the expansion of towns in the Beulah area will combine to change the region into a more diverse economy. The early boom will cause planning and budgetary dif- ficulties for the towns nearby, although revenues should be sufficient for needs.2 Most long-term benefits will accrue to the Bismarck-Mandan area, where wholesale and retail activity will expand to serve the increased population. D. Fiscal Impacts North Dakota has recently enacted significant changes in the collection and disbursement of taxes on energy facilities. The new severance tax applies to the mining of coal, while the new privilege tax applies to the conversion of coal to other energy forms. (Thus, operators will have some incentive to "strip and ship" and avoid the privilege tax, rather than process or use the coal at the mine site.) The Beulah scenario envisions an annual production of 60.3 million tons of coal by the end of the century, a 3,000 MWe power plant (full production by 1980), and four assorted gasification Actually both towns have some unused capacity, so that early needs will be somewhat less. See Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted Communities in Federal Region VIII. Denver, Colo.:Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975. 2Leistritz, L., A.G. Leholm, and T.A. Hertsgaard. "Public Sector Implications of a Coal Gasification Plant in Western North Dakota," in Clark, Wilson F., ed. Proceedings of the Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 4: Social Impacts Section.Billings, Mont.: Eastern Montana College, 1975, pp. 429-42. 789 ------- o o o U CM M j PQ r- P CTi PH tH PS - O CO H Q EH pa H H P P 2 a § w o PS U W < PS EH P O EH W H i — i 1 m r- rH CO W O H > W CO PUBLIC 000 O O O 00 "3* 00 CN O 3 o rH in cTi ro r- sP ^J1 O"> CTi ^ ^ rH CM 0 0 O 000 CD CD ^} ^O ' — 1 ^* cr\ ro r~~ in rH -sj1 to d id d £ cu ^ cu CD g CU g cn CD co CD U 0 13 SH 13 SH d o d o td UH rd MH d d J-\| fr"] J_\| ^-i fl^ V^ XI CU CD CU CU rd-PSxl d4->>Xl rHrdrd4-1 CU<0(04-i 3&rHO NSJO CU tO P3 EC O 0 0 ^o m r~ (Ti iH 00 rH O OO U3 C^ CN CN ^} rH rH CN ^ rH ^f VO ^O 00 rH H in in r— J o vo o 00 *^ O^ in ^r ^ ^ ^j1 i — i O 0 O O l> O cri i — (in ^ ^ ^o in rH CD Cn4J tO d d £ CU rd CD g 13 CO CU d o rd 13 SH S d 0 I id m t^ £< U >H W SH SH Q) CD g id rd 4-i cn S J O •H m rH rd d o •H 4J •H T3 13 rd r\| U rd CU j_i O UH O O o » o M> f — «. rH 0 4-1 -p d 3 o g td cn 4J d cu g 0) SH •H rj C71 0) !H 4J d rd rH ft 0) Cn rd \|g CU cn 13 d rd SH CU rd .. 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PS .. ^ 0) rj rd n3 d •H i ~\ O in rH id cu 0) co . in SH (0 rH rH O TD m r- O1! rH O 4J 13 CU 4-1 tO rH m d •rH cu H rd cu O SH rj 0 cn ^ . 0 U d 0 X X W .. . 0 rH O u «. 5H CD £> d cu Q . cn 4-1 d (U g ft o rH 0) (U Q t1 £n SH CD d W CD Cn 5-i CO jjj !>i X! 13 CU in 3 tO U cn d 0 4-1 g 0 0 PQ d O in 4J 0 rO ft g H . ^T ^J* 1 ro ^ > ft ft * in t"» cr> rH ^ ft p 790 ------- TABLE 9-36: NECESSARY OPERATING EXPENDITURES OF MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENTS IN SELECTED COMMUNITIES, 1980-20003 (dollars) YEAR 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Current (1974) Budgetb BEULAH 114,000 318,000 102,000 414,000 126,000 143,850 HAZEN 67,000 139,000 91,000 343,000 163,000 10,950 BISMARCK-MANDAN 1,152,000 1,464,000 1,572,000 2,436,000 3,456,000 12,417,206 aAbove 1975 base level, based on population given in Table 9-29 and a figure of $120 per capita, broken down as follows: highways (25 percent); health and hospitals (14 per- cent) ; police (7 percent); fire protection (12 percent) ; parks and recreation (6 percent) ; libraries (4 percent); administration (10 percent); sanitation and sewage (10 percent); and other (12 percent). See THK Associates, Inc. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry; Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974. Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted Communities in Federal Region VIIlT Denver, Colo.:Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975. 791 ------- plants to come on-line between 1982 and 2000. Applying current tax rates to the projected incremental increases, revenues likely to arise from these energy developments are: • Coal Mining. The severance tax is $0.50 per ton.1 The authorizing legislation makes explicit provision for keeping up with inflation; thus, the $0.50 figure can be used throughout, in terms of 1975 currency. With the production levels of this scenario, the severance tax yields the following revenues:2 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 $12.3 $17.8 $20.5 $25.3 $30.1 (millions) • Electrical Generation. The tax rate is one-fourth mill per kWh. For a 3,000 MWe plant at 70 percent load fac- tor, the tax would amount to $4.6 million per year. The assumptions are that' one-fourth of this rate will be achieved in 1977-1978, one-half in 1979, and the full rate thereafter. • Gasification. Conversion facilities pay either 2.5 percent of gross receipts or $0.10 per Mcf, whichever is greater. Taking the $0.10 rate, each gasification facility will generate revenues of $8.2 million per year. • Property Taxes. Although the privilege tax stands in lieu of ad valorem taxes on conversion facilities, coal mines are still subject to property taxes. In North Dakota, the average current assessment ratio is 17 per- cent, the legal taxable value ratio is 50 percent, and the average mill levy is 174 (17.4 percent).3 All these factors are effectively multiplied together to yield a true tax rate of 1.48 percent of narket value. During the scenario time frame, five surface mines will be inaugurated at a total development cost of $493 million. Applying the 1.48 percent rate to these facilities, property tax revenues will grow as follows: 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 $3.03 $4.38 $4.99 $6.14 $7.30 (millions) ^ronder, Leonard D. Taxation of Coal Mining: Review with Recommendations. Denver, Colo.: Western Governors' Regional Energy Policy Office, 1976; and Stenehjem, Erik. Intra-Laboratory Memo. Argonne National Laboratory, February 9, 1976. Distribution will be considered after all revenues are listed. 3Stenehjem. Intra-Laboratory Memo. 792 ------- • Distribution. The new tax laws take cognizance of those jurisdictional problems occurring in other energy-rich areas. In most of the other scenarios, the county in which facilities are located has reaped the most significant portion of the revenues, while other jurisdictions have had to provide extra services without the benefit of new taxes. North Dakota has, instead, largely supplanted the property tax with new formulas designed to spread revenues over a variety of governmental units. The severance tax is distributed into the following shares: 35 percent of the Coal Development Impact Office (see Section F. Political and Governmental Impacts). 30 percent to the state general fund. 5 percent to the county of origin. 30 percent to the state trust fund. After legislative appropriation, the impact development office has wide latitude in disbursing these funds to any local units impacted by coal development. The trust fund, administered by the board of university and school lands, is to be held in perpetuity. However, income from this fund can be paid to the state general fund. The Beulah scenario should result in an accumulation of $133 million by the end of the century. An income of 5 percent, then, would make another $6.6 million available to the state beyond its 30-percent share. The coal conversion tax is distributed as follows: • 90 percent to the state general fund. • 4.5 percent to the schools in originating county. • 4.0 percent to the county general fund. • 1.5 percent to the towns in the originating county. School and town allocations must be prorated on the basis of attendance and population, respectively. In recent years, Mercer County has been allocating 51 per- cent of tax revenues to the general fund, 48 percent to schools, 793 ------- and 1 percent to a state medical fund.1 This is assumed to continue. These various taxes will be applied to the full complement of energy facilities (five mines, an electric station, and four gasification plants), and the revenues will be distributed by formula. The net result, by jurisdiction, is aiven in Table 9-37. These revenues appear adequate to yield an overall net surplus. However, the state government will capture most of this new revenue and will also benefit from income and sales taxes (not calculated here). In addition, the towns are only guaranteed $560,000 per year by the end of the century; their solvency depends on allocations from the Coal Development Impact Office (which operates within the office of the governor).2 That source can cover all municipal fiscal impacts if allocated with that goal in mind. Local property taxes might even be reduced with no real decline in the ability to provide government services in the long term. E. Social and Cultural Impacts The removal of land from agricultural production for strip mining will be difficult for some farmers, but the compensation from the mining activity, as well as the jobs made available, will be welcomed by many. The steady out-migration from the Beulah area in recent years would be turned around, an event that would also be favored by most residents.3 Judging from recent experi- ences, a large part of the labor force for energy development ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation and Center for Interdisciplinary Studies. Anticipated Effects of Major Coal Development on Public Services, Costs, and Revenues in Six Selected Counties. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974. 2They may also benefit from commercial and residential prop- erty taxes and utility fees not calculated here. 3Bickel, D., and C. Markell. "Problems and Solutions Related to Measuring Regional Attitudes Toward Coal Development and Life Styles in the Eastern Williston Basin," in Clark, Wilson F., ed. Proceedings of the Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 4: Social Impacts Section. Billings, Mont.: Eastern Montana College, 1975, pp. 421-28. 794 ------- TABLE 9-37: ALLOCATION OF TAXES LEVIED DIRECTLY ON ENERGY FACILITIES, MERCER COUNTY (millions of 1975 dollars) JURISDICTION State General Fund3 Impact Development Office County General Office School Districts Towns Total 1980 8.1 4.3 2.3 1.6 0.1 16.4 1985 18.2 6.2 3.6 2.7 0.2 30.9 1990 28.1 7.2 4.3 3.3 0.3 43.2 1995 38.6 8.9 5.6 4.2 0.4 57.7 2000 49.4 10.5 6.7 5.2 0.6 72.4 Including medical fund and income from trust fund (at 5 percent) . will be made up of local people.: Many other workers are likely to be North Dakotans, and at least one-third of all employees will be from outside the Northern Great Plains. Nonlocal employ- ment of such skilled workers as pipefitters and electricians is even more likely, up to levels of 70 percent and higher.2 Major uncertainty exists concerning the extent to which the local housing construction industries will be able to supply single-family and multifamily homes. A shortage of homes and subsequent reliance on mobile homes would be unpleasant to many families arriving in the Beulah area. Medical care will also be a problem for the scenario area, where only four doctors are available between Mandan and Dickinson (70 miles southwest of Beulah), two of whom are affiliated with a 39-bed hospital at Hazen.3 Government policy is generally unable to induce doctors 1Leholm, A., F.L. Leistritz, and J.S. Wieland. Profile of North Dakota's Coal Mine and Electric Power Plant Operating Work Force, Agricultural Economics Report No. 100. Fargo, N.D.: North Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Economics, 1975. 2Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, December 1975, pp. 14-19. 3Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Im- pacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted Communities in Federal Region VIII. Denver, Colo.: Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975. Mountain 795 ------- to settle in small communities when there are ample opportunities in more attractive places,1 although loan forgiveness programs have had some success.z For example, Underwood, Stanton, and Center currently have no doctors, and projected population growth will create the need for physicians in these towns. The Bismarck- Mandan area currently has 91 doctors but could need as many as 50 more by 2000. The urban areas clearly will have much less difficulty attracting physicians than the rural towns. F. Political and Governmental Impacts The population increases expected in the Beulah scenario will create a general need for more local government resources. None of the towns in the area has a full-time mayor or city manager,3 but the planning needs during the energy boom may pro- vide sufficient impetus to change that. Zoning and subdivision regulations, building codes, and mobile home park design stan- dards already exist to guide local expansion and permanent con- struction in municipalities. A major uncertainty in the scenario area is the extent to which the local housing construction industry will be able to cope with increasing demand for single-family and multifamily homes. At present, North Dakota does not have an administrative organization at the state level to assist in the establishment and financing of necessary housing in rural areas; the state also does not have a housing financing agency or corporation whose specific purpose is to assist in securing mortgage money for traditional lending institutions. A program designed to admin- ister bonds and related fiscal mechanisms could be made operational through the Bank of North Dakota, but the statutory authority usually granted to state housing finance corporations is lacking. Consequently, growth communities are unable to use many national ^ankford, Phillip L. "Physician Location Factors and Public Policy." Economic Geography, Vol. 50 (July 1974), pp. 244-55. 2Coleman, Sinclair. Physician Distribution and Rural Access To Medical Services, R-1887-HEW. Santa Monica, Calif.:Rand Corporation,1976. 3Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Im- pacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. Socioeconomic Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted Communities in Federal Region VIII. Denver, Colo.: Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975. 796 ------- and federal financial sources for housing that are available to other states.l Besides problems of housing, county and local governments will be hard-pressed to provide the range of services that tradi- tionally falls within the scope of their responsibilities. Mitigation of negative impacts in facilities and services cate- gories will depend largely on the availability of front-end capital and the ability of government to plan for such impacts. .As noted in the fiscal analysis, existing debt ceilings in Beulah and Hazen are not adequate if these localities are to cope with projected demands. Consequently, the fiscal solvency of these two commun- ities, as well as others in the scenario area, depends largely on the distribution of funds from the recently created Coal Develop- ment Impact Office. The Office administers the revenues collected from the state severance tax on coal. By statute, the Coal Devel- opment Impact Office has the authority to formulate a plan to pro- vide financial aid to local governments in coal development areas and to make grants to counties, cities, school districts, and other taxing districts. Decisions regarding the amount of an impact grant awarded to an eligible political subdivision must consider the amount of revenues which the local governments will gain from other tax sources.2 Clearly, the office will play an important role in facilitating responses to service demands within the state's energy-impacted communities because it has responsi- bility for determining not only which community will receive aid but also how much assistance.each will receive. As presently organized, the program leaves local administrators and officials in a state of uncertainty as to whether they should prepare pro- posals and whether they will indeed receive funds for projects they propose. Also uncertain is the Office's budget, at least in the long-term.3 As well as affecting the governmental institutions and pro- cesses in the scenario area, energy development can be expected to affect the political activity and attitudes of the residents. Although little information exists concerning the effects on local government of population influences associated specifically with energy development, conflicts between newcomers and area natives may produce noticeable effects on a community. Energy development workers are a potential political force because their Rapp, Donald A. Western Boomtowns, Part I, Amended: A Com- parative Analysis of State Actions, Special Report to the Gover- nors. Denver, Colo.: Western Governors' Regional Energy Policy Office, 1976. 2North Dakota Century Code §§ 57-62-04 (Cumulative Supp. 1975). 3The Coal Development Impact Program was scheduled to last until June 30, 1977 unless renewed by the state legislature. 797 ------- socioeconomic characteristics -are generally associated with higher than average involvement in politics.1 Also, they generally have urban viewpoints that conflict with the rural viewpoints of the local government personnel. (In this scenario area, as in most of the West, the present county governments are controlled by agricultural interests.) If long-time residents are willing to compromise with new interests (e.g., by channeling the increased revenues toward support of increased local services and amenities), then conflicts between the two groups may be minimized. 9.4.5 Summary of Social and Economic Impacts Manpower requirements and taxes levied on the energy facil- ities are major causes of social and economic impacts. For the mines, manpower requirements for operation exceed peak construc- tion manpower requirements. However the reverse is true for the conversion facilities; peak construction manpower requirement exceeds the operation requirement by 5 to 7 times. In combination, total manpower requirement for each mine-conversion facility in- creases from the first year when construction begins, peaks, and then declines as construction activity ceases. Total manpower required for operation of the plant-mine combination is about the same for each scenario facility and its associated mine. A property tax and sales tax which are tied to capital costs, severance tax and royalty payments which are tied to the value of coal, and an energy conversion tax which is tied to the energy produced generate revenue for the state and local government. Capital costs of the conversion facilities and mines hypothesized for the Beulah scenario in millions of 1975 dollars are about 1,200 for each of the mine-gasification facilities and 1,500 for the mine-power plant facility. The property tax is levied at a rate of about 1.48 percent on total capital costs, and the sales tax is levied at a rate of 4 percent on materials and equipment. In addition, the severance tax is levied at a rate of 5 percent on the value of the coal mined. Royalty payments for federally owned coal are about 12.5 percent. All royalties are retained by Indian tribes for coal on the reservation. The energy conversion tax is levied at a rate of 0.25 mill per kWh on the power plant and $0.10 per Mcf on the gasification plants. No energy conver- sion tax is collected from facilities on Indian reservations. Energy development in the Beulah area, especially strip mining and coal gasification, will cause population shifts over a three-county area focusing on Beulah and greater expansion in :Por a discussion of the characteristics that are usually associated with a high level of involvement in political affairs, see Flanigan, William H. Political Behavior of the American Electorate, 2nd ed. Boston, Mass.: Allyn and Bacon, 1972. 798 ------- the Bismarck area. The greater population influxes will accompany facilities construction in 1985 and 1995-2000. If facilities are constructed according to the hypothesized schedule, an overall increase of 40,000 people in the area is expected by 2000, nearly 30,000 of which will probably live in the Bismarck-Mandan area. Temporary housing, particularly mobile homes, will have to provide shelter for construction boom periods. Mobile homes could become more permanent fixtures if the local homebuilding industry cannot provide the single-family and multifamily units that could be demanded by the year 2000. School enrollment in Mercer County will be greatest in 1995 but will remain at least 50 percent above 1975 levels through the rest of the century. This indicates an average annual budget increase for schools in the county of about $2 million over cur- rent levels. New classroom needs will be small in comparison with other scenarios studies; the Bismarck-Mandan urban area will receive the greatest long-term impact, requiring 270 classrooms and $14 million in capital expenditures. Agriculture's dominant position in the economy of the Beulah area will be replaced by coal-related sectors. New job opportu- nities will allow many local people and former North Dakotans to take energy development positions. As a result, median income in the area will rise about 50 percent over the 1975 level, although short-term peaks will occur during construction periods. In wholesale and retail services, Bismarck-Mandan will see increases in activity, while Beulah and Hazen may expand as local retail centers. Combined with increases in population, these economic changes may result in new political alignments and leadership. Municipal services and related expenditures must increase substantially to provide the necessary services, which will be concentrated exclusively in the towns. Medical care is a partic- ular problem area, especially since it is difficult to attract doctors to nonmetropolitan locations. For example, the need for doctors by 2000 in the Beulah area will be difficult to meet under current trends. Planning for and managing energy development- related impacts may require full-time professional personnel in local governments, rather than the current part-time nonprofes- sionals. 9.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 9.5.1 Introduction The area evaluated in the Beulah scenario extends southward to the Heart River, eastward past the Missouri River, northward 10 miles beyond Lake Sakakawea (Garrison Reservoir), and westward to the Badlands of the Little Missouri. Most of the land is gently rolling prairie, crossed by a few streams. The climate is semiarid, with extreme annual variations in temperature. 799 ------- Climate (especially winter weather), topography, and soil types largely determine the nature of the native biota and its pro- ductivity. Agriculture has markedly altered the natural grass- land ecosystem, reducing both the diversity and abundance of wildlife. 9.5.2 Existing Biological Conditions Two major native biological communities are found in the area, each with characteristic animal and plant species indicated in Table 9-38. The more extensive is the mixed mid- and short- grass prairie that forms a nearly complete ground cover in upland areas.1 More than half of this area is under cultivation, princi- pally for wheat or forage crops, and the remainder is grazed. Antelope are important game species in the area. Black-footed ferrets are thought to be present but have not been confirmed. Both small birds and larger birds of prey are numerous.2 The peregrine falcon formerly bred on buttes and escarpments in the prairie habitat type but is now thought to be extinct as a breed- ing bird in North Dakota. Thousands of water-fowl nest and stop during migration on the many small lakes and marshes (an impor- tant duck production area). The second major community is a variable woodland with its major development along the Missouri River Floodplain and tribu- taries.3 The complex physical structure of these woodland areas, which provide a wide variety of nesting or denning sites and food sources, promotes a diversity of animal life, including a Characteristic grassland herbs such as lupine, goldenrod species, and blazing-star, as well as silver sage, rabbitbrush, and other shrubs, lend diversity to the: vegetation but do not contribute significantly to overall productivity or cover. 2Bird faunas include a number of typical prairie species, including western meadowlark, horned lark and lark bunting, golden eagle, Swainson's hawk, marsh hawk, red tailed hawk, kestrel, merlin, prairie falcon, and burrowing owl. Upland game birds include sharptail grouse and Hungarian partridge. The ring-necked pheasant is particularly characteristic of agricultural areas. 3The bottomland forest consists o.J: climax stands of green ash, American elm, box elder, and burr oak, with successional stands dominated by willow and cottonwood. 800 ------- TABLE 9-38: SELECTED CHARACTERISTIC SPECIES OF MAJOR BEULAH SCENARIO BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES COMMUNITY CHARACTERISTIC PLANTS CHARACTERISTIC ANIMALS Grassland/cropland mosiac Needle and thread grass Western wheatgrass Blue grama Little bluestem Silver sage Blazing-star Pronghorn antelope Jackrabbit species Ground squirrel species Badger Meadowlark Golden eagle Marsh hawk Short-horned lizard Riparian woodlands Cottonwood Green ash American elm Burr oak Willow species Buffaloberry Whitetail deer Porcupine Tree squirrel Skunk Mink Flycatchers Leopard frog Garter snake wide variety of birds.1 Typical mammals of woodlands habitats include porcupine, shrews, and whitefooted mice. Many predators and omnivores, including the red fox, mink, weasel, striped skunk, and raccoon, prefer the wooded floodplain or ravine habitats where there is both cover and a variety of prey. Game animals include wild turkey, cottontail rabbit, tree squirrels, and whitetailed deer, which also range into the prairies adjacent to the major stream courses. To the west, along the course of the Little Missouri River, lies an area of eroded badland topography. 1 Birds include large numbers of insect eaters such as the vireos, wrens, and flycatchers. The bald eagle once nested along the Missouri River, and an active nest was reported in 1975 for McLean County, within the study area, although it subsequently failed. 801 ------- Although beyond the immediate scenario area, these badlands may potentially have high recreational use." Aquatic communities in the scenario area vary from small lakes in the glaciated prairie to the large impoundments on the Missouri River and its tributaries. Fisheries are principally of the warm-water type, except within and below reservoirs, where both warm-water and cold-water species occur. The Missouri River between Lakes Oahe and Sakakawea is considered to be one of the outstanding sport fisheries of the Great Plains. The biota described above is subject to several man-made stresses which may intensify throughout the study period. Chief among these influences is the expansion of cultivated land since the early 1960's. Substantial reductions have occurred in the floodplain forest of the Missouri between Lake Sakakawea and Lake Oahe. Draining wetlands and eliminating fencerow vegetation has reduced cover for small animals and water fowl. Agriculture also contributes sediment, pesticides, and nutrients from fertilizers, through runoff, and most impoundments in the western part of the state (except main stem reservoirs) are now heavily contaminated with nutrients (eutrophic).2 Damming the Missouri River has re- duced flooding and meandering. This change has apparently reduced productivity in the floodplain forest and promotes the replacement of successional cottonwood and willow stands by hardwoods.3 9.5.3 Factors Producing Impacts Four factors associated with construction and operation of the scenario facilities (a power plant, two Lurgi and two Synthane gasification plants, and their associated mines) can cause ecolog- ical impacts: land use, population increases, water use and Respite the harshness of the environment, wildlife is diverse within the badlands. Species for which these areas con- stitute especially high-quality habitat include mule deer, cotton- tail rabbit, and bighorn sheep (introduced in the 1950's and now present in nuntable numbers). Many hawk and falcon species find good nesting habitat in the rugged terrain, as does the golden eagle. Prairie dog distribution follows the grassland portions of the badlands, and a black-footed ferret was sighted near Medora in 1973. 2Henegar, D.L. "Fisheries Division, Western District and Statewide Research Report." North Dakota Outdoors, Vol. 38 (No. 7, 1976), pp. 18-20. 3Johnson, W.C., R. L. Burgess, and W.R. Kaemmerer. "Forest Overstory Vegetation and Environment on the Missouri River Flood- plain in North Dakota." Ecological Monographs, Vol. 46 (Winter 1976), pp. 59-84. 802 ------- water pollution, and air quality changes. With the exception of land use, the quantities of each of these factors associated with the scenario facilities were given in previous sections of this chapter. Land-use quantities are given in this section, and the others are summarized. Land use by each type of facility pro- posed for the Beulah area is given in Table 9-39. During the 30- year facility lifetime, 15,000 acres are used by a gasification plant-mine combination. Energy developers have already leased existing farmland to be used for surface coal mining.1 Manpower requirements associated with construction and operation of the scenario energy facilities will cause an increase in the urban population in the scenario area. Peak total manpower requirement is about 5,600 for each gasification plant-mine com- bination and 3,200 for the power plant-mine combination. After facility construction is completed, manpower required for opera- tion of each facility is about 1,100. Water for the scenario facilities operating at the expected load factor range from 4,891 (Lurgi plant) to 23,884 acre-ft/yr (power plant) assuming high wet cooling (Table 9-16). The water source for the facilities, Lake Sakakawea, has an average annual discharge of 15,576,750 acre-ft/yr and minimum discharge of 956,340 acre-ft/yr (Table 9-12). Effluents from the energy facil- ities will be ponded and will contaminate surface' water or ground- water only if pond liners leak"or erode. The annual concentration of S02 in the plant vicinity will range from 0.7 (Lurgi plant) to 1.8 ug/m3 (power plant and mine). Typical and peak concentrations of criteria pollutants from the power plant-mine combination will be well below all federal and most state ambient standards. Only the North Dakota 1-hour S02 and N02 standards will be violated; however, the N02 standard will be exceeded by a factor of 7, Typ- ical and peak concentrations of criteria pollutants from the Lurgi and Synthane facilities are not expected to exceed any federal am- bient air standards, although the state 1-hour N02 standard may be exceeded by the Synthane plants. 9.5.4 Impacts The nature of the ecological impacts caused by these factors depends on the plant and animal community type on which they are imposed. For example, the impact of land use depends on whether grassland or shrubland communities are being used. Some of the land-use trends are now evident or could occur regardless of energy-related growth. A scenario, which calls for power, Lurgi, and Synthane plants and their associated mines to be developed Johnson, Jerome E., Robert E. Beck, and Cameron D. Sillers. The North Dakota Farmer/Rancher Looks at Severed Mineral Rights, Agricultural Economics Miscellaneous Report No. 18. Fargo, N.D.: North Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Econom- ics, 1975. 803 ------- TABLE 9-39: LAND USE BY SCENARIO FACILITIES AT BEULAH FACILITY LAND USE' ACRES/YEAR ACRES/30 YEARS Conversion Facilities Power Plant (3,000 MWe) Lurgi or Synthane Gasification Plant (250 MMcfd)b Associated Surface Coal Mine For Power Plant (19.2 MMtpy) For Lurgi Plant (10.8 MMtpy) For Synthane Plant (9.6 'MMtpy) 840 500 500 2,400 805 25,200 15,000 15,000 MWe = megawatt-electric MMcfd = million cubic feet per day MMtpy = million tons per year The land used by the mines will increase every year by the amounts given in the table for 30 years, the lifetime of the facilities. However, the land occupied by the plants will not vary after con- struction is completed. Two Lurgi and two Synthane plants are hypothesized for the Beulah area, but data is given for one Lurgi or one Synthane plant and its associated mine. according to a specified time schedule (see Table 9-1) is used here as the vehicle through which the extent of the impacts are explored. Impacts caused by land use, population increases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes are dis- cussed. A. To 1980 Most of the early ecological impacts will be due to construc- tion activities. By 1980, land use by the urban population and the power plant (the only plant on-line by 1980) will be 4,035 acres, which is 0.2 percent of the total acres in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean Counties (Table 9-40). Table 9-41 shows that energy facilities and urban population are expected to use grassland/ cropland habitat. Nearly 50 percent of the land in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean Counties is cropland and about 50 percent is grassland used for grazing. Based on this 1.1 ratio of cropland (for culti- vation) to grassland (for grazing), it is assumed in Table 9-41 that one-half of land use associated with energy development (Table 9-39) will be cropland and one-half will be grassland. If so, forage which could be produced on 2,018 acres (50 percent of land used by 1980) would support 55 cows with calves and 3 sheep 804 ------- TABLE 9-40: LAND USE IN THE BEULAH SCENARIO AREA (in acres) By Energy Facilities Conversion Facilities Power Plant (3,000 MWe) 1st Lurgi Plant (250 MMcfd) 2nd Lurqi Plant (250 MMcfd) 1st Synthane Plant (250 MMcfd) 2nd Synthane Plant (250 MMcfd) Associated Surface Coal Mines For Power Plant (19.2 MMtpy) For 1st Lurgi Plant (10.8 MMtpy) For 2nd Lurgi Plant (10.3 MMtpy) For 1st Synthane Plant (9.6 MMtpy) For 2nd Synthane Plant (9.6 MMtpy) Subtotal By Urban Population Mercer County Residential Streets Commercial Public and Community Facilities Industry Subtotal Oliver County Residential Streets Commercial Public and Community Facilities Industry Suototal McLean County Residential Streets Commercial Public and Community Facilities Industry Subtotal Subtotal Total Land Use Total Land In Beulah Scenario Area 2,449,920 Mercer County 666,880 Oliver County 1,321,600 McLean County 461,440 1975 320 64 8 20 32 444 110 22 3 7 11 153 575 115 14 36 58 798 1,395 1,395 1980 2,400 2,400 410 82 10 25 41 568 150 30 4 9 15 208 620 124 15 38 62 859 1,635 4,035 1990 2,400 805 805 3,400 4,000 1,500 17,910 430 86 10 27 43 596 140 28 3 9 14 194 665 133 16 41 66 921 1,711 19,621 2000 2,400 805 805 805 805 16,800 9,000 6,500 2,500 40,420 500 100 12 31 50 693 170 34 4 10 17 235 375 175 21 54 88 1,213 2,141 42,561 MWe - megawatt-electric MMcfd = million cubic feet per day aValues in each column are cumulative for year given. MMtpy = million tons per year Acres used by the urban population were calculated using population estimates in Table 9-29 for Mercer, Oliver, and McLean Counties assuming: residential land = 50 acres per 1,000 population; streets = 10 acres per 1,000 population; commercial land = 1.2 acres per 1,000 population; public and community facilities = 3.1 acres per 1,000 population; and industry = 5 acres per 1,000 popu- lation. Adapted from THK Associates. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry: Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 19~4. 805 ------- TABLE 9-41: HABITAT LOSS OVER TIME IN THE BEULAH SCENARIO AREAa (acres) HABITAT Grassland/ Cropland Valley Shrublands and Forests 1980 4,035 160 1990 19,621 260 2000 42,561 290 POST 2000a 92,961 2,080 Assumes that land use by urban population and scenario facilities given in Table 9-39 win pri- marily occur on grassland or cropland in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean counties. Land use by trans- mission lines and water supply lines (not included in Table 9-39) are included in this table. in a year (Table 9-42) . l By comparison,, Mercer County had an inventory of 53,125 cattle and calves and 2,192 sheep and lambs in 1974.2 The impact of lost cropland on yield will vary with weather conditions and with potential improvements in cultivation practices or plant varieties.3 Using the current figure of 25 bushels per acre, the loss of 2,018 acres of cropland would reduce yield by a maximum of 50,450 bushels, assuming all cropland was in 1 Grazing value of land is usually estimated in terms of acres per Animal Unit Month (AUM). An AUM is defined as the amount of forage required to support one cow and calf, or five sheep, for a month. AUM's relate only to production of forage used by sheep and cattle; differences in food habits make the unit inappropriate for wildlife. An average of 3 acres per AUM was assumed for cal- culations . 2U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1974 Census of Agriculture; Preliminary Report, Mercer County, North Dakota.Washington, D.C.:Government Printing Office,1976. 3 It has been suggested that North Dakota wheat yields could rise from 25 to 112 bushels per acre through such improvements. Stewart, Robert E., Jr., Alan Colbert, and Jerome Johnson, eds. Conference on the Future of Agriculture in Southwestern North Dakota, Held at Dickenson State College, Dickenson, May 197T7 Little Missouri Grassland Study, Interim Report No. 3. Fargo, N.D.: Little Missouri Grassland Study, 1973. 806 ------- CM • I O> W o CO 5S W H D O W M fj H 55 •^ W W W co CO > ,_q f£ U co 5 0 u W 0 C, b Q (• C J 'IT 3 rH 5 CTl O 1 rH rH CM 4-1 to 0 ft G 3 o o t^ Q) > •H rH o 1 (U o SH cu s CTi in ro ^ CM CM (Ti O Ol 0 O CO vo 00 O CM -O f^ ^^ rH G O •H 4-1 0 3 O SH ft to rd tn tn 0 rH d) \> •H 4J rd rH 3 H 3 0 4-> 8 o o O 4-> G CU O SH CU ft <#> CM dP H <#> in G 0 •H 4-1 U 3 •O O SH ft 1 rd «« to SH SH cu cu cu SH ft > 0 O -H rd rH ftO -P O rd 4J - .G in SH 4-> cu tO O T3 (U SH cu •H CU g •P a 3 •H W rH G CO •rH -rl rd o rd d to MH G -H rd ^irH 4-> Oi -H SH cu V JG * C 4-> T3 CU G • MH (d T3 CU O rH G ,G to rd 4-> 4-J (0 rH G rd to rH 0) SH tO •H O Oi rd 4J SH SH §cu tn tn ft-H 4-1 G 0 4J G cu m c cu > CU 0 •H CU 0 SH tJi o SH 0) G CU ft SH -H ft rd CO o CU o in j>-i in 13 A ~ 13 G O CU G rd rd g rd CU -H T) 4-1 T3 G SH CU C rd O MH rd H 4H -H rH ft rH ft O CU O SH > SH SH o •H rd O 4-) CU 4-1 rd >i to c rH I -H CU 3 O O g ro en SH 3 CU (D 0 SH -H ft •H 4-1 CU CO CO SH A 3 in rd 4-> o O CU i \ tj f^ CO CU G O 4-1 rd rH rH m (U rH rd i-3 -H to — 0 £ cu S SH G 4-i O O T) tn < -r) G O tfl 4-> rd rH • 4-1 rd CU [5 C •H to •H rd G rd rH ft O SH o rH rH rd tTi G •rl g 3 to to ^ i rd ft ft CU rd CU 0 A to tn G CD •-H > SH 'i i j_i rd SH U 0 m • rH ft rd cu o cu A A to 4-) •H 4-1 S £ CD & 0 O SH O CU ft CU c rH O . tj cu o H m 4J s_ 4-1 rO JZ O 4-> G CD 0 SH S! rd 4-1 CO -H 4-J C •H D c 3 rH rd H g rd -H g G •H <; G rd SH CU H ft rH rd CU • en to MH rd c O SH o O -H 4-J MH 4-> G rd CU 'W rH 003 SH O CU 10 rH ft CU rd r) 0 CTi O cr\ rd SH O G •H MH T3 go cu 3 g CO ^-i 3 tO 4-1 tO i< -H W o O rd MH O 3 4- rd SH CU 0 3 ^ ffl • >i - 4-> CD C o 3 SH O CU U 1 SH O CU U 0 SH m CD 0 S 4-1 " G 4-> cu SH g 0 4-1 ft SH cu rd ccj ft CU >i Q SH rd - G • -H CO g • -H D H CD •S Vj O ft SH CU tn SH CU 3 3 rH tn 3 •H U 1 1 J i 4J Oi rd i^ CU £ o t3 to G 3 rd to >i CU SH cj O 4-i ••a1 G t~ CU CTi > rH * ^^ [•»• O •H CD ^ 13 4J Q 807 ------- wheat (Table 9-42). By contrast, 1,361,547 bushels of wheat were harvested in Mercer County in 1974.1 The relatively small amount of habitat removed directly in this part of the scenario time frame is expected to have only locally adverse impacts on wildlife, mostly small species. A possible exception is the pronghorn antelope. Beulah lies in the center of an area of high-quality habitat, and the disturbance resulting from the construction of the power plant may cause some animals to avoid the area. The presence of large construction forces has been correlated with increases in illegal big game hunting. However, in the Beulah area, almost all land is owned privately, and most land- owners will probably post their lands as the first construction forces move into the area. While a certain amount of trespassing will probably occur, poaching is not expected to reduce the re- productive capacity of game populations. In this respect, the Beulah scenario differs from other scenarios where large amounts of unpatrolled public lands exist. Construction populations will also increase the demand for legal hunting and fishing. While upland game (sharptail grouse, pheasant, Hungarian partridge, and cottontail) populations will probably be able to withstand this, increased use of the publicly owned game management areas may call for additional controls. The supply of deer, antelope, and turkey may not be sufficient to meet potential hunting demand. By 1980, manpower required for construction of facilities will have caused an increase in the population in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean Counties to 23,500, a 19 percent increase over the 1975 population. Population increases are expected to occur pri- marily in Beulah and the small nearby towns. Ecological impacts associated with population increases will not be significant by 1980. Fisheries in the area are maintained by stocking, and the hatcheries presently supplying this area of North Dakota have slack capacity. Thus, existing fisheries are probably adequate to supply the increased demand of the 1975-1980 period. If a reservoir of 11,000 acre-feet capacity is constructed on the Knife River to supply the Lurgi plant, the area's fishery potential will be changed. Situated upstream of the industrial sites, the reservoir would not be subject to siltation problems resulting from construction. The reservoir would trap sediment l\J.S.f Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1974 Census of Agriculture; Preliminary Report, Mercer County, North Dakota. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office,1976. 808 ------- from the upper portion of the Knife River drainage which, in conjunction with controlled releases downstream, could help alle- viate sedimentation problems in the lower Knife caused by either industry or agriculture. The lake itself would probably support a warm-water sport fishery. The river's present populations of sauger, walleye, pike, and channel cat would benefit from stabili- zation of downstream flows. Population growth in the Beulah area may result in discharges of municipal sewage effluent, at least temporarily, into the Knife River and Heart Butte Creek. Such discharges typically have large concentrations of dissolved oxygen. Depending on the quantities discharged and the base flow in the stream, these pollutants could cause serious problems for several miles downstream. Nuisance blooms of algae and lowered dissolved oxygen levels could result. If all of the towns affected by population booms were to discharge into the Knife or its tributary, Spring Creek, pollutants might have a localized impact on the Missouri River. Ecological impacts associated with water use and pollution (from the facilities) and air quality changes will not be signi- ficant by 1980. B. To 1990 By 1990, the power and two Lurgi plants will be on-line. Land use by the urban population and energy facilities will total 19,621 acres, 0.8 percent of the land in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean Counties (Table 9-40). Forage which could be produced on grassland used (assuming 50 percent of land used by 1990 is grassland) would support 270 cows with calves and 14 sheep (Table 9-42). The cropland foregone (assuming 50 percent of land used by 1990 is cropland and assuming wheat is planted on all cropland used) would support 245,275 bushels of wheat (Table 9-42). Habitat fragmentation due to urban and industrial growth around Beulah will probably begin by the end of the second scenario decade, affecting, for example, more than half of the high-quality antelope habitat around Beulah. The number of antelope using this area will decline, and the regional popula- tions will reflect the loss of this key area. Deer using this same area will probably also show local declines because the Knife River Valley and Spring Creek are key habitats, providing food and protection from severe winter weather. The cyclical nature of unemployment could induce some workers to remain in the Beulah area between construction peaks, and ready access to deer populations, especially in winter, could make game poaching attrac- tive. Antelope might also suffer, although their wideranging habits make access more difficult. If poaching becomes widespread, 809 ------- the number of deer and antelope that could safely be harvested by legitimate hunters would decrease.l Demand for hunting and fishing will continue to increase over the 1980-1990 decade. Fishing pressure could exceed the capacity of existing hatcheries, but the two large reservoirs on the Missouri will probably continue to meet demands for fishing, expe- cially if recent introduction of such open-water fish as coho, lake trout, and lake whitefish are successful. Upland gamebirds could become somewhat scarcer around Beulah and Bismarck-Mandan. Con- tinued expansion of cropland and reduction of fencerow and road- side cover will also lower production of small game during the 1980-1990 time frame (particularly ring-necked pheasant, Hungarian partridge, and sharptail grouse). Demand for big game hunting will exceed supply by a growing margin. Human population size will fluctuate markedly between 1980 and 1990, exhibiting two distinct peaks: one around 1981 and one around 1986. By 1990, urban population in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean Counties will be 24,750, a 23 percent increase over 1975 population. Increased populations will place greater demands on the more accessible outdoor recreational resources of the area. On or adjacent to the two mainstem Missouri reservoirs, most con- tinuing human activity will be confined to specific public access areas, although displacement of game onto private land during hunting seasons is likely. Deterioration of plant communities due to recreational use is more likely to occur in the Little Missouri Badlands. Depending on the access and use restrictions placed on these lands by the Forest Service, there is a potential for serious erosion problems arising from vehicle use. Even with stringent regulations, a certain amount of illegal use of off- road vehicles is likely to occur due to the difficulty of enforc- ing regulations over such an extensive area. Presently, the Little Missouri channel is used in winter as a snowmobile course. Additional use, proportional to population increases, could place a potential stress on deer.2 Population peaks of the early and middle 1980's could result in temporary discharges of municipal sewage effluents into the Knife River and Spring Creek. Impacts of such discharge could be exacerbated in the 1980-1990 time frame if mine dewatering and runoff control results in lowered base flow in these two streams. Because illegal hunting takes pregnant females and non- breeding young, it can reduce the number of breeding adults. 2A recently published study on white-tailed deer suggests that increased movement such as may be caused by harassment could occasion substantial increases in energy expenditures. Moen, A.N. "Energy Conservation of White-Tailed Deer in the Winter." Ecology, Vol. 57 (Winter 1976) , pp. 192-98. 810 ------- The extent and seriousness of nutrient enrichment problems depend both on the amount and character of effluents discharged and on the base flows of affected streams. Water use and air quality changes associated with energy development are not expected to cause significant ecological impacts by 1990. C. To 2000 By 2000, all of the scenario facilities hypothesized for the Beulah area will be on-line. Land use by urban population and energy facilities will be 42,561 acres, 1.7 percent of total acres in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean Counties (Table 9-40) . Forage which could be produced on grassland used would support 585 cows with calves and 30 sheep; cropland used could be cultivated to yield 532,025 bushels of wheat (Table 9-42). Ecological impacts associated with land use and population increase by 2000 will be similar to those described for 1990. Beulah and Hazen will be centers of the high construction popula- tion in 1995. By 2000, the urban population in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean Counties is expected to be 30,900, a 54 percent increase over 1975 population (Table 9-29). Ecological impacts caused by water use and water pollution associated with energy development will be similar to those described by 1990. Emissions of criteria air pollutants under most conditions will not result in ground-level conceatrations likely to produce chronic damage to range or cropland vegetation. S02 concentra- tions similar to those causing chronic damage to wheat under ex- perimental conditions may occur for brief periods. Therefore, S02 emissions are not likely to significantly limit crop or for- age yields. The addition of sulfur to mineral cycles as particu- late fallout or rain washout might be beneficial in sulfur- deficient soils of the area.1 Trace elements, including mercury, fluorine, lead, arsenic, zinc, copper, and uranium, will be emitted chiefly from the power !Painter, E.P. "Sulfur in Forages." North Dakota Agricul- tural Experiment Station Bimonthly Bulletin, Vol. 5 (No. 5, 1943), pp. 20-22. 811 ------- plants.1 These elements will eventually enter the crop and grassland mineral cycles, but their pathways through the ecosystem are not well known. Therefore, the exact impact of their intro- duction cannot be predicted. Trace elememt buildup in both soils and vegetation has been recorded downwind of several power plants, but consequent toxic effects have not been documented. D. After 2000 During the 30-year lifetime of the energy facilities, land use by the urban population and energy fcicilities will total 92,961 acres, 4 percent of the land in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean counties. Forage which could be produced on grassland used would support 1,278 cows with calves and 65 she;ep in a year, which is 1 percent of cows with calves and 2 percent of sheep in the 1974 inventory of Mercer and Oliver counties (Table 9-42). Wheat which could be cultivated on cropland used would be 1,162,025 bushels, 56 percent of the wheat harvest in Mercer and Oliver counties in 1974 (Table 9-42) . Of the 92,961 acres used, 7,761 acres will be permanently lost to urban population and facility structures and 85,200 will be used by mining. The long-term ecological impact of mining will depend on the success with which these lands are reclaimed. The climate of North Dakota is generally favorable for reclamation, and several land-use options are possible;.2 Restoration of mined areas for use as cropland is typically attractive because of its relatively low cost. It is also possible to restore these mined areas to a mixed-grass prairie, consisting (at least in part) of native species, and suitable for grazing. Normal succession to a mature grassland in similar areas takes 15-20 years after North and South Dakota lignites have locally high con- centrations of uranium, in excess of 0.1 percent. Swanson, Vernon F., et al. Composition and Trace Element Content of Coal, Northern Great Plains Area, U.S., Department of the Interior Re- port 52-83. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1974, p. 7. 2Sandoval, F.M., et al. "Lignite Mine Spoils in the Northern Great Plains: Characteristics and Potential for Reclamation." Paper presented before the Research and Applied Technology Sym- posium on Mined Land Reclamation. Pittsburgh, Pa.: Bituminous Coal Research, Inc., 1973. 812 ------- disturbance.1 Wildlife habitat values can be restored for many upland game species by the use of woody plantings for food and cover. 2 The resemblance between reclaimed mined areas and early stages of grassland development may result in colonization by species which typically characterize early stages of grassland development, such as various ground squirrels, the western har- vest mouse, and horned lark. In mature grasslands and successful reclaimed areas, antelope, sharptail grouse, jack-rabbits, and a variety of small birds (typified by the chestnut-collared long- spur) are characteristically predominant. However, species adapted to croplands will differ little from those which may be expected to colonize newly reclaimed areas. Certain overburden characteristics could potentially limit the success of reclamation, at least locally. High sodium levels occur in some of the strata overlying several existing mines in western North Dakota, and the problem appears to be widespread over the lignite fields of the Fort Union Formation.6 Unless carefully buried, these layers could inhibit plant growth and prove highly susceptible to erosion. Further, even if buried, increased infiltration of water leaching through the unconsoli- dated spoil material could bring salts from these layers to the surface. Ecological impacts after 2000 associated with population increases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes will be similar for those prior to 2000. J.M. "Secondary Plant Succession on Muscatine Is- land, Iowa." Ecology, Vol. 11 (June 1930), pp. 577-88; Tolstead, W.L. "Plant Communities and Secondary Succession in South-Central South Dakota." Ecology, Vol. 22 (July 1941), pp. 322-28. 2Early experience at the Knife River Coal Company's Beulah mine has shown that upgraded spoil piles, planted with a mixture of wildlife food plants, are abundant in upland species such as grouse, pheasant, and rabbits, which typically suffer heavy losses because of winter storms. Large numbers of white-tailed deer from the adjacent Knife River Valley also shelter in the area intermittently. Legal provisions requiring that spoils be graded to resemble the original topography under these circum- stances reduces potential value for wildlife. 3Packer, Paul E. Rehabilitation Potentials and Limitations of Surface-Mined Land in"the Northern Great Plains^General Technical Report INT-14. Ogden, Utah: U.S., Department of Agri- culture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 1974. 813 ------- 9.5.5 Summary of Ecological Impacts Four factors associated with construction and operation of the scenario facilities can significantly affect the ecological impacts of energy development: land use, population increases, water use-and water pollution, and air quality changes. Land use by the urban population and energy facilities during the 30-year lifetime of the facilities will total 92,961 acres, 4 percent of the total acres in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean counties. By 2000, urban population in these counties is expected to be 30,900, a 54 percent increase over the 1975 population. Water required for the scenario facilities (operating at the expected load factor and assuming high wet cooling) will be 46,000 acre-ft/yr which repre- sents 5 percent of the minimum discharge and 0.3 percent of the average annual discharge of the water source, Lake Sakakawea. Ef- fluents from the energy facilities will be ponded to prevent water pollution. Typical and peak concentrations of criteria pollutants from the plants are not expected to cause significant ecological impacts. Table 9-43 summarizes the effects of the ecological impacts on the area's game species, rare or endangered species, and selected indicators of ecological change. The major scenario influences on deer and antelope popula- tions in the area are expected to be localized habitat fragmen- tation and, possibly, illegal harvest. This will probably be more important for area-wide antelope population because changes will occur to the less plentiful quality habitat. Upland game is expected to begin a localized decline in the early 1980's. Wild turkey, with harvests carefully controlled by the state of North Dakota, will probably not show major declines attributable to the scenario. However, many species are likely to experience regionwide reductions in numbers as a result of clearing grasslands, wetlands, and river bottoms for agriculture. Endangered species, including bald eagles and peregrine falcons that are occasionally seen in the area, may be adversely affected by the scenario. Both species are subject to illegal shooting. Bald eagles also tend to be sensitive to human dis- turbance within I or 2 miles of a nest; increased human population and activity along the Missouri could therefore reduce the likeli- hood of restoring a breeding population of eagles. The number of peregrines visiting the area is probably controlled by conditions in their breeding range; consequently, the potential impact of illegal shooting in the Beulah area on the number of birds seen there from year to year is difficult to specify. The black-footed ferret is known to be in the area from a recent sighting near Medora but has not been located in the Beulah vicinity. 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X 3 X O 01 JJ 01 iH IB Oi O e< 2 coxa-o IH IB a. 0 oj x 2 10 <0 2 J-1 u o: o 815 ------- C •H -P C o O ro •f t CTi o o o (N O c\ o CO Q"> i— 1 \ 1 ^ •rl C 73 H C 4J H 0 O 131 .C C 01 •H 73 rH QJ rQ 0 CP JH d) -Q rH rH H-t -r-t o o Ul 4J Ul o oj rH 3 73 OJ £1 rH -H ra Ul 3 ui T: 0 -rt a > 0) 4J 3 O 0) en >i 0 0 rH C cn _f) fn in ^ o 0 XI -H rH O "4H J-t i-4 t3 a c 0 0"i N .--M H M 01 03 O rH U rH 03 0 C r-l 4J O O -H a) -u CP rH H CU X3 X! 14 -H rd 01 X na Cfl 0 O 4-1 Cu -P O Jl 5. 13 aJ E 01 l o 01 r4 U W 1^4 U i 4J Ul 73 ui ra -a c o) rH 1} ra cn c ra OH 01 rH — 0 C 4J H rH C N ra V4 — ra U 3 C U 0 -P O Oi rH OJ H c; ui o 73 Ul 4J 01 0) 3 • O 73 d Si U CJ •H E g g 4-1 -H Ul -H c c ra O H 4H rH \| U g O 0 tn C 73 H 73 OJ CUE H 3 H E c ra H rH a 4-1 o H C 0) r4 O r4 4J O Ul Ul -73 O 4J C ^4 ra ra OJ -P -4 £ H sac fQ O cn £ 13 QJ cn c en in i-t dj cn fu o) 1-1 o J-1 .2 a rH (0 E O C 3 VH •H -H C O i 1 C tO Oi rH 73 O <4H r4 C Ul -H ra ra OJ 73 rH OJ rH u c 73 C ra rH C C ra rH -H O O C «i 3 •H -H cn (U 4J E 13 V4 u ra o M o C E 73 DI 4H ra ra C r-, 73 c 73 •H O OJ 0 OJ E 0) 14 -H S 0 iH OJ Ul -r4 73 3 ui ra C 0 01 rH 73 O rH O O OJ -H U 0) 3 Ul - 3 -4 d ui ui ui •H 0) OJ Ul c u ra 4-> oj o 3 u ra 14 u ui ui rH ra C tn 0 OJ 73 ro I iH 4-1 OJ r4 Ul i-i J >1 Ul 4J iH 73 cue to ra ra C OJ rH •H E C 73 O H C Ul 73 ra Q* in o 0) 73 - IH J= C C 0 4-1 ra o rH -rl 14 0) 01 O E 73 Ul UH O OJ 0) 0 E U 73 OJ -H O OJ J3 ra 3 E rH Ul -H >i o ra S r4 0 U 0) tji c ra r^ U OJ rH 4J 4J H ^ t Ul 0) O Ul 73 o ra c 3 ra Ul Oi c cn IH d -H a 0 O Ul O 4 0) 0) 0) 01 u u > c c o oj o ra c 73 -H 73 r+ 4J d OJ -H 3 ^ 14 73 D CO 3 C ra 73 4-i o c o u 73 ra 3 31 OJ rH IH Ul C 3 4-1 01 -H C rH Ul > 3 H ra o o 4-1 C rH IH U C O -H D, 14 O "H O E 3 U Ul Ul H J3 73 F OJ cn e oj 31 H o c ra o H rH 3 SUM p cu r< O 3 C J2 O Ul 0) o c ra > 10 4-> ra 73 ui rj ^ Ul J3 rH c ra M o ra •H cu cu 4-1 6 •HOC 73 tj H C OJ O -Q Ul O 73 C > C 0 4-1 rd ra -H M E rH Ul 0) CT1 c (0 .c O OJ rH 4J •H J « i cn 1 -H IH C rH rH 0) CU 01 rH rH 4J N u -H H ra x c E 3 3 ui o O tr UI 73 C Ul OJ -H c 3 ra 4J 0) O J3 3 i-i OlrH rH 0> >1 t) »rH rH X J2 U O iH o 01 a ra rH 4-1 E 73 rH H 73 Ul CJ ra rH -r4 > >4-i O 0) rH r4 > il o ui oj ra « C a rH Ul 0 iH rH H -H Ul CU -H 73 JJ E J3 3 ra ra 4J VH 4-1 CP H X rH S M 3 X U -3 >i o ra 0) Q. 3 ui crac oj o rH .1: cn ra 73 ui os:-HrH SH pa o u 31 :a 01 ra U rH 3 £, OJC C CO rHUli-lO U1 l\|H K » O Ul X H O t030J OO 4-1 »J 3 iH rH H £ k-OEO1 73 -H O ra 1 4-14-1 CC CU1CJ273C « C rH 103 OJ-iHujH ra u ra £1 OJ -H QJ oj oo •H OI-H 3 CJ 0 0) ra 14 31 73 OJ >H -HE ra £4 io u S o re 5 l!) rH u £ H3 os? 14 cu SH 3 £ H .c c ra o QJ c .c cr1 14(8 C S 3 M U 0) 73 C 3 C O C 4-J o o 0) 6 rH D- (T3 O C rH 0 OJ -H > 4J 0) -H 73 73 73 >. 03 oj o C H 0) Ul CO CU U si o 4J O 1H rH 0 rH H cu 3 C >! OJ O 0) 0) 14 .C 3 4J 4J rH Ul 3 4J CJ O -H 0) 14 ra c x oj o E 4-1 Ul IH rH ra c, a H 0) S Q 816 ------- direct destruction of habitat, would be through reduction of prairie dog numbers by varmint hunters. The endangered Northern Kit (swift) Fox is susceptible to traps set for other species and is mistaken for a young coyote by hunters. With increased numbers of people participating in these activities, this species could be reduced in numbers or lost altogether. Table 9-44 summarizes the major factors producing ecological impacts in the Beulah scenario area. These have been grouped into three classes, based on their geographic extent and the number of species they affect. S02 pollution is given a Class C rating because its impact on vegetation, measured as productivity, will be at least an order of magnitude less than the effects of normal year-to-year varia- tions in climatic factors and grazing pressure. The impact of land-use changes on agricultural production will likewise be small, usually less than 0.1 percent of county totals. Most of the impacts of rising human populations fall into Class B, namely: illegal shooting, increased use of delicate badlands areas, and discharge of sewage treatment plant effluents into surface waters. Conversion of native rangeland to cropland as mining and reclamation proceed is also included. These impacts rate higher in severity because they can potentially alter the size of areawide populations of some animals or bring about shifts in community composition in habitats of restricted occur- rence. Class A impacts are considered to be the pivotal problems responsible for the projected animal population impacts discussed above. In the Beulah scenario, habitat removal, fragmentation, and the incidental disturbances coincident with urban growth clus- ter within an area of high-quality wildlife habitat. Most criti- cally, these impacts are difficult to manage. 9.6 OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT BEULAH The intended energy benefit from the hypothetical develop- ments in the Beulah area will be production and export of 3,000 MWe of electricity and 1 billion cubic feet per day of synthetic natural gas by the year 2000. Locally, the benefits include in- creases in retail trade, income to residents, state and local governments, and secondary economic development. Social and economic impacts associated with energy develop- ment in the Beulah area tend to be a function of the labor and capital intensity of developments and, when multiple facilities are involved, of scheduling their construction. These factors determine the pace and extent of migration of people to the 817 ------- I 0> W o o o CN 1 O CT> cn H 1 O 00 CTI H O 00 CTi rH 1 in r-~ Oi H EH& U 0 O XI O -H !H g -P 3 CD to M -P MH >, C -P O -P 4-1 (U (0 -H 0 g 4-> CO > 0) Cn-H Q) -H n to xi c 4-1 •H >H fO O O C MH X! 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CD w CD Cn Cn'to H H £ fO tO CD tn X! cn CD O rH CO rH rH -H tO H Q ft ffl W w fO rH U CO CD CO CO O CD rH Xi 4-1 2 ft So d O !q 0 H -H u CD W H > W - -H -H •H tP O Oi 6 d > CD -H M CD N Q) MH N fO CO -H O M CD d W cj « « CO CD W W O CD H X! 4-> CO ft do d O M O M •HO CD W r4 > W -H -H •H cn O « g d > CD -H >H CD N CD MH N (0 CO -H O M CD d cn u K « CO CD CO CO O CD rH Xi 4J ft o d SH OH U CD >H > •» -H -H Cn O PH d > •H M CD N CD MH (0 W -H >H CD d e> « « &~n w ' fH U -H W 0 CD w d -H CO fO CD O fl X! g CD rH d O ft U WWW 818 ------- scenario area as well as the financial and managerial capability of local governments to provide .services and facilities for the increased population. Labor forces increase the population directly and indirectly. More labor'is required for construction of the facilities than for operation; thus suitable scheduling can minimize population instability. The power plant-mine com- bination is less labor intensive than the gasification facilities. Taxes which apply to the energy facilities (a property tax, sales tax, severance tax, royalty payments, and energy conversion tax) will generate revenue for local, state, and federal governments. Solutions to problems concerning who gets the revenue benefits and who provides public services and facilities needed by the increased population in the scenario area involve all levels of government and their ability to relate to each other. North Dakota's state government will financially assist growing commu- nities by giving them a portion of revenue obtained from mineral leasing and severance taxes. Impacts will be difficult to handle in small communities which do not have sufficient planning capac- ities to manage growth. Many of these impacts would be mitigated if people who have migrated out of the area returned and were hired along with some local unemployed laborers (to meet the manpower re- quirements for energy facility construction and operation). If all of the facilities hypothesized are constructed, social, economic, and political changes in the 3-county area will stem pri- marily from the overall 40 percent growth in population. The dis- tribution of this growth will determine the severity of the impacts. The new jobs are expected to raise the median income in the area about 50 percent above the 1975 level. The increased demand for housing will be largely met by mobile homes. Medical care and other professional services are expected to be seriously lacking throughout the 3-county area. As a result of the development, agriculture's dominant position in the economy will be replaced by coal-related sectors. Exporting coal would significantly reduce both the adverse and beneficial effects of much of the population growth, as well as lower property tax benefits to local governments. Air quality impacts associated with energy development at Beulah are related primarily to quantities of pollutants emitted by the facilities and to diffuse emissions associated with popu- lation increases. The power plant emits greater pollutant concen- trations than the gasification plant, but ambient air concentra- tions associated with the expanded population may be higher than those resulting from conversion facility emissions. As presently configured, the planned facilities will have a minimal effect on the local air quality. The four gasification plants do not cause any North Dakota (except the 1-hour NOX stan- dard in the case of Synthane) or federal ambient standards to be exceeded. However, although power plant emissions meet federal ambient standards, they exceed the North Dakota 1-hour SOa and ambient standards. In addition, general urban 819 ------- development at Beulah will cause both the federal and state 3-hour hydrocarbons standards to be exceeded by 1985. Also, the plumes of the plants will be visible from many locations in the area, and the average long-range visibility will be reduced about 10 percent when all the facilities are operating and to a greater extent during periods of air stagnation. The S02 emissions could be decreased through an improvement in scrubber efficiency, the precombustion washing of the coal, or through a reduction in plant operating capacity. Although scrubbers for N02 are still in the experimental stage, these emissions can be controlled, to a limited extent, by boiler firing modifications such as staged firing, low excess air, and reduction of plant capacity, or by exporting coal. Water impacts associated with energy development in the Beulah area are a function of the water required and effluents produced by energy facilities and the associated population. The power plant requires the most water, the Lurgi, the least. Effluents from all energy facilities will be ponded to prevent contamina- tion of surface water and groundwater in the scenario area. The water consumption attributed to the energy facilities and their associated development is not expected to significantly deplete groundwater or surface-water resources. Although there will be no intentional discharges of pollutants to groundwaters or surface waters, deterioration of local water quality may result from the failure of settling and holding ponds and the improper disposal of urban sanitary wastes. The integrity of the storage ponds may be breached via the leaching of chemicals through the pond liners or from the erosion of pond dikes; both possibilities will become more likely as the facilities age. Sewage disposal, although not presently a problem in the area, is expected to be- come serious as the urban growth out-paces the ability of munici- palities to respond. This problem will be most evident during periods of peak growth which, for this hypothesized development, occur in the mid-19 80's and mid-1990's. Although surface waters are most abundant in this scenario, technological changes could further reduce depletions. The poten- tial exists for using wet-dry cooling towers for the hypothetical conversion facilities in this scenario but at considerable expense. Local water quality could be mitigated through the installation of recyclable waste disposal systems or packaged systems for mo- bile home parks (which compose a large portion of the new housing). Ecological impacts associated with energy development in the Beulah area depend on land use, population increases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes. Land use by surface mining activities will be greater than that by energy facility structures and population needs. However, much of the land used 820 ------- by mining can be reclaimed. The average rainfall of 10-20 inches annually and well-developed soil in the scenario area will make revegetation likely. However, when and if the original plant communities will be reestablished is uncertain. Ecological impacts will stem largely from the population increases. Therefore, the area surrounding Beulah will probably be the most severely impacted. As a result of habitat fragmenta- tion, the productivity of selected species will likely decrease. Poaching is also expected to be a serious problem unless positive steps are initiated in game protection and management. Other impacts of human activities will include simplification of eco- system structure (with increases in relative abundance of fewer species) and loss of soil nutrients due to erosion. Controls over human use of the area, such as permits for recreational use and zoning, would minimize attrition of habitat. Provisions for habitat control in the river valley and habitat management programs on farmlands can also affect changes to vege- tation and animal abundance. Ecological impacts associated with water use and water pollution and air quality changes are not expected to be signi- ficant. 821 ------- CHAPTER 10 LOCALIZED IMPACTS 10.1 INTRODUCTION In addition to potential site-specific impacts of energy development reported in the preceding six chapters, a number of other impacts may be experienced in the vicinity of energy extrac- tion and conversion facilities. This chapter discusses these "localized" impacts. These are discussed here rather than in the six site-specific chapters either because; they do not differ sig- nificantly from site to site or because too little is known about them to treat them on a site-specific basis. Included are several air impacts categories, impacts from trace element emissions, problems associated with solid waste treatment and disposal, noise impacts, aesthetic impacts, public health impacts, and occupational health and safety impacts. 10.2 AIR IMPACTS Ten categories of potential local air impacts are discussed; sulfates, oxidants, fine particulates, long-range visibility, plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, cooling tower fog- ging and icing, fugitive dust, startup arid shutdown of conversion facilities, and air impacts of geothermal development. 10.2.1 Sulfates Sulfates result from the oxidation of sulfur dioxide as stack gas plumes mix with air. Because of the complexity of the chemical reactions forming sulfates and the very small particle size of sulfate aerosols (in the submicron range), predicting atmospheric distribution of sulfates is very difficult. For ex- ample, sulfuric acid (a sulfate) is formed from the oxidation of sulfur dioxide (SOa), and then reacts with other components in the atmosphere to produce salts such as ammonium sulfate. A sum- mary of measured atmospheric sulfate concentrations in selected western locations in 1974 is provided in Table 10-1. In most locations average sulfate concentrations are highest in the win- ter and fall. 822 ------- r- CTi O CO s o H EH w u & o U w EH CO W « CO W cu a p w H u en i o w J pa g (C /— N (T) 0 ^^ 00 CO a o M r j $ H a w o a 0 u w H fn hJ £^ to a o H K H a 2 W § a M 0 X c_? <1 B 1 ^ (_} Si C^H pjj § g C/^ o a M OH P-* co Bt) W H a H 2j a o H H • >OMO4J>OOO>M O OO)cOQ)CJO013Ocfl a a p 2 p o a p ^ a 2 ^O i li 1 OO r^ i 1 CO ON r P^ r-i CN "vT OJ -sT r— 1 co inmtoor^^ooa^oo rr» vDcxjr-^v^Oo^OOr— Jir\r— < Oi \tJ C^-J V4J ~-' 1 1AJ r—1 Uj r-1 00 C •H C2 o o T3 I>^ cd j2 M o rH tfl O ^ ^ a cd M 4-» CO & P-I ^i oo d cdOMO^C C fl C "^ Cd O /^x «H 00 O §C 4J •H QJ §E~* <3 -H O -H <^ O C " — • ' J>> X3 M U M C? OS •» S G » <3j Cd >H ^1'M J>^ " sCU >>^3-H OJ 3^-x^-H C! x^/ ^J 4_t CO ^ E""1 U 'O O^ d) O O •H H cd — - ^— M M r^* OJ ^—^ 4-* XXUT3OCO OJOJcdtf CO •H -H cd a)M>3(-JC!M^ C ti CH M T3 i — 1 d) o^ d) O O d) Qj^cd fU cd f> cd ^3 4-i p>^ ex I~H o owp-t cd ooa co^r-i d) CO-H ^C rC M O d) d) rH Cd _C3 cd d) PH PH O ^ Q ^1 Oj £3 0 U a tj •H C3 J3 Cfl 3 ^-> ^{ 4J CJ cfl ft g r-l ^> 4-1 •H r-l CO 0* M •H %< W rH CO •H f»4 HI 4J tfl Jg 00 C •H IIH 0* •H }u\| pg W 0 0) 4-1 Cfl >1 CO ^ 0£ M 01 C t^l 4-1 •H i— I •H 4J 0 >>D 00 M M 0) OJ (X fl CO 0 M O 00 £3 O M M a •H ti 0 0 M II ^ 0) m C ^~ a> 00 H 3. nJ O •rl M 4-1 a 01 rH W <4_t 0 4-1 C OJ 0 Cfl Cfl 0) CD CD U o « v» 4-1 CD 01 4-1 O CO CO CO 0) M •^ri 0 SJ H O M P-i rH cfl C o •H 00 0) _£J CO 'O a cfl K! T3 3 4-1 CO rH Cfl C O •H 00 0) pd I 1 CO 4J rH 3 CO 01 rrj C Cfl ^i OC o rH o 13 O _(-; 4-1 OJ S • LO oo I oo ft ft oo" p^ r-l „ C o M 0) a 0) H • • • MH •H rH CO O ** ^ cu rH 0) ^ M 0) ca • co fl •H Cfl rH P-I 4-1 Cfl QJ M O C3 ^ 0) 4J M O a CO pi •H cfl 4-1 C 3 O S 823 ------- Whether energy development will significantly increase these sulfate concentrations generally depends; on 862 emission levels and the rate at which SO2 is converted to sulfates in the atmos- phere. One study suggests the peak conversion rate of S02 to sulfates in plumes is less than 1 percent each hour.1 Although conversion rate estimates vary from 1 to 20 percent per hour, 20 percent rates have only been associated with oil-fired- power plants,3 probably due to finer particle size found in oil-fired plant emissions. Rates for coal-fired power plants have been reported at 1 to 3 percent per hour. Ground-level sulfate con- centrations which would result from the energy development sce- narios at each of the six sites are given in Table 10-2 for SO2 to sulfate conversion rates of 1 to 10 percent per hour. Con- version rates greater than 5 percent per hour could result in 24-hour ambient sulfate levels large enough to produce increases in mortality (discussed in the public health impacts Section 10.7).1 There are currently no federal standards for ambient con- centrations of sulfates, but Montana and North Dakota have estab- lished 24-hour sulfates standards of 12 micrograms per cubic meter (yg/m3) not to be exceeded more than once per year.5 Fa- cilities modeled at Colstrip, Montana, and Beulah, North Dakota, would not exceed this standard at 10 percent conversion rates (Table 10-2). Sulfate aerosols also affect visibility, as de- scribed in Section 10.2.4 below. 1Nordsieck, R., et al. Impact of Energy Resource Development on Reactive Air Pollutants in the Western United States, Draft Re- port to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Contract No. 68-01- 2801. Westlake Village, Calif.: Environmental Research and Tech- nology, Western Technical Center, 1975. 2U.S., Congress, House of Representatives, Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Environment and the Atmos- phere. Review of Research Related to Sulfates in the Atmosphere, Committee Print. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1976. 3 Ibid. ^U.S., Environmental Protection Agency. Position Paper on Regulation of Atmospheric Sulfates, EPA 450/2-75-007. Research Triangle Park, N.C.: National Environmental Research Center, 1975. 5Teknekron, Inc., Energy and Environmental Engineering Divi- sion. An Integrated Technology Assessment of Electric Utility Energy Systems, Briefing Materials; Air Quality Impact Method- ology and Results—Regional Study and Subregional Problem Areas; Southwest, Rocky Mountains, Northern Great Plains. Berkeley, Calif.: Teknekron, 1978, p. 7. 824 ------- TABLE 10-2: GROUND-LEVEL SULFATE CONCENTRATIONS FOR POWER PLANTS POWER PLANT SCENARIO SITE Kaiparowits/Escalante Navajo/Farmington Rifle Gillette Colstrip Beulah PEAK SULFATE CONCENTRATION (yg/m3) CONVERSION RATE ONE PERCENT 2.2 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.9 1.1 TWO PERCENT 4.4 1.6 3.0 1.0 1.8 2.2 FIVE PERCENT 11 4 7.5 2.5 4.5 5.5 TEN PERCENT 22 8 15 5 9 11 yg/nr = micrograms per cubic meter 10.2.2 Oxidants Oxidants (including such compounds as ozone, aldehydes, per- oxides, peroxyacly nitrates, chlorine, and bromine) are a cri- teria pollutant which either can be emitted from sources or formed in the atmosphere. For example, oxidants can be formed when hy- drocarbons (HC) combine with oxides of nitrogen (NOX). Measured average levels of oxidants varies widely throughout the study area as indicated in Figure 10-1. Peak oxidant values typically occur during summer, with some variation based on location.1 Daily maxima occur during late afternoon, and have been documented at 0.08 to 0.09 parts per million (ppm) in the Northern Great Plains sites and from 0.03 to 0.04 ppm in the Central Rockies.2 Thus, measurements found in the Northern Great Plains indicate that ^eknekron, Inc., Energy and Environmental Engineering Divi- sion. An Integrated Technology Assessment of Electric Utility Energy Systems, Briefing Materials: Air Quality Impact Method- ology and Results—Regional Study and Subregional Problem Areas; Southwest, Rocky Mountains, Northern Great Plains. Berkeley, Calif.: Teknekron, 1978, pp. 88-89. 2 Ibid. 825 ------- Northern Plains Dunn Center, ND Beulah, ND Porcupine Pump, WY Douglas, WY Winsor, CO Southwest Desert Coolidge, AZ Florence, AZ Playas, NM Hidalgo, NM Gold Hill, NM Florence, AZ Davis Dam, AZ Central Rockies Glenwood Springs, CO Parachute Creek, CO 'OQVJWJV ^W^^^j^^p >tfQQQ39Gl& 00000000 xxmorc xxxxxxxx! JfifiAOfiOQe XXXXXffiA ^WQWTOt KXXXXXXX XXXXXXXX gfissa Si WWWW A^VSA^^AA HXXXXXXX ioofid SI 7QQWQQQG xxxxa , 1 k^^VWWX^ l^yj 1 1 0 .02 .04 .06 .08 Average Concentration (ppm) FIGURE 10-1: OXIDANT CONCENTRATION BY SITE Source: Teknekron, Inc., Energy and Environmental Engineering Division. An Integrated Technology Assessment of Electric Utility Energy Systems, Briefing Materials: Air Quality Impact Method- ology and Results—Regional Study and Subregional Problem Areas: Southwest, Rocky Mountains, Northern Great Plains. Berkeley, Calif.: Teknekron, 1978, pp. 88-89. 826 ------- existing conditions could exceed the standard of 0.08 maximum 1-hour concentration.1 Present knowledge of the conversion processes forming oxi- dants is insufficient to predict concentrations based on residual emissions. However, the relatively low peak HC concentrations from a power plant and associated mine suggest that oxidant prob- lems will not be greatly exacerbated by power plant HC emissions alone. However, oxidant problems could result from background HC with the high levels of NOX emitted in power plant plumes. The extent of this problem has not been predicted. Oxidant problems are not expected from Lurgi or Synthane conversion facilities. However Synthoil plants, TOSCO II oil shale facilities, and natural gas production facilities all pro- duce peak HC levels many times greater than federal standards. For example, a 100,000 barrels per day (bbl/day) Synthoil plant produces peak HC concentrations about 150 times greater than the federal standard and emits NOX in the plume. As a result, fa- cilities of this size may have difficulty obtaining a construc- tion permit because they could cause oxidant standards to be violated. This may create special problems in North Dakota and other locations where synthetic fuel facilities are planned, and where current levels of oxidants already exceed or approach fed- eral primary standards. 10.2.3 Fine Particulates Fine particulates are primarily ash and coal particles emit- ted by the conversion facilities which are less than 3 microns (three one-millionth of an inch) in diameter.3 Current informa- tion suggests that particulate emissions controlled by electro- static precipatators (ESP) have a mean diameter of less than 5 microns, while uncontrolled power plant emissions have a mean MO C.F.R. 50.9 (Standard Promulgated February 18, 1975). Environmental Protection Agency Administrator 'Douglas M. Costle has proposed relaxation of the primary photochemical oxidant am- bient standard from 0.08 ppm to 0.1 ppm. The effect would be to reduce restrictions on industrial growth in some western locations, O'Donnel, Francis J. "Washington Report." Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, Vol. 28 (July 1978), p. 660. 2See the various site-specific analyses, Chapters 4 through 9, 3Some fine particulates are also produced by atmospheric chemical reactions. These fine particulates appear at long dis- tances from the plants because of the length of time required for these chemical reactions to occur. 827 ------- diameter of about 10 microns.1 In general, the higher the ef- ficiency of the ESP, the smaller the mean diameter of the parti- cles emitted by the plant stacks. The high efficiency ESP's (99 percent removal by weight) selectively remove coarse particulates to the point that an estimated 50 percent (by weight) of the total particulate emissions are fine particulates. This percentage applies to power plants and Lurgi and Synthane gasification pro- cesses. However, since only half of the particulate emissions from the Synthoil plant are controlled, only about 25 percent of its emissions will be fine particulates. Even when high degrees of particulate controls are used and ambient particulate standards are met, there may still be cause for concern due to small par- ticulates. These fine particulates are not efficiently filtered out by the body's respiratory system and thus they may have seri- ous health effects. The effect of fine particulates on respira- tory problems is discussed in Section 10.7 (public health impacts). Fine particulates can also adversely affect visability as dis- cussed in the following sections. 10.2.4 Long-Range Visibility Fine particulates, including aerosols, reduce long-range visibility. Particulates suspended in the atmosphere scatter light, which reduces the contrast between an object and its back- ground. As distance increases, the contrast level eventually falls below that required by the human eye to distinguish the object from the background. Estimates of the effect on visibility of energy facilities hypothesized for this study are based on em- pirical relationships between visual distance and fine particulate concentrations. Visibility in the West generally averages about 60 to 70 miles.2 As shown in Table 10-3, in many western loca- tions average (long-term) visibility has been decreasing since the 1950's (except in Pueblo, Colorado). As facilities in this study become operational, average visibility will further decrease by about 12 percent.3 Episodes of air stagnation will cause sub- stantially greater reductions of visibility on a short-term basis. Fifty percent of the mass is contained in particles less than this diameter. Eppright, B.R., et al. A Program to Model the Plume Opacity for the Kaiparowits Steam Electric Generating Station, Final Report, Radian Project No. 200-066 for Southern California Edison Company. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1974. 2The measurement of visibility is not an exact science. In the West visibility measurements have been taken at few locations and have generally not been recorded over the last several decades. 3An average value from site-specific analyses, Chapters 4-9. 828 ------- CO & o H EH < CJ O i-q tn U i-q CO 2 H CO Q W EH CQ H CO H I ro IT) (Ti I o PQ < EH EH H H M H H S i> o ^ « 2 fe 1 1 H W w^ O H f"7 ^^ ^j £H £ H u Q EH 2 W U w CM CO EH J3 H § g O U n3 W H EH W U W P-i 45 4-) 0 LT) £3 O H EH <] U O !_} CM r- CTl rH 1 0 s0 CTi rH g o SH 4H Ti G CD SH 4-1 4J G CD O S-i CD a CM rH 1 03 C O N •H SH r{ 4-1 0 CO 4J C CD O SH CD a r-- 1 03 C O N •rH SH <£ - u 0 rH en C •H 12 ^ ^O CTi H 1 ro LD C •H SH Cu CO O T3 03 SH O rH 0 U ^ o cy\ rH 1 LO LO CTi rH g O SH m TS G CD SH 4-1 4-) C CD O SH CD O^i I O 03 SH O rH 0 U >. SH CD j> G CD Q 4-1 C CD O SH CD CL, o 0 03 SH O rH O U >. G O •rl 4-1 O C d 1-3 T3 c 03 SH 0 ^ ^D O^ rH 1 LO un CTi rH g 0 SH m T3 G CD SH 4-1 4-) G CD u SH 0) in CN O T! 03 SH O rH 0 CJ «. 0 rH 43 0) d CM _p G CD O SH (D ro 1 45 03 4-1 _ >i 4-1 •H U CD 03 J 4-1 rH 03 CN r-~ CTl rH 1 • •H O tn tn 4-> SH G SH (0 CM W CD H G O H H pq H 03 05 &-P -P >i X G C -P W 0) (U -H E EH a a c -H < O O -P •SH u D -H -H . > > 0 -p G G -H m w w SH Q) -P S "O 0 45 C C 0) 4-> 0 03 H 3 -H W O 4-1 >, to (0 tnm HMO 0) O 0) 45 Qj G 4-) -P SH W C O 0) c u - g •H . en CD o en >i u a a) 4-i -H H en •H > en rH SH - < •rH , •H SH cr> en >i,y O •H tn a) rH > O G O = rH . G o cu 45 G EH U . 45 CD « U g EH a; o - EH 5-1 T3 G m CD (0 4-> d = r- to >H • r-- SH CD (Ti tn i3 en .H CD G 03 -P i Cn O i— O T3 O 4^ 4-> CD g 4-) O (C CU e H >1 4-) H i-H fO d a V4 H < • • en M (0 H M CD 4-1 to Q D S CD tn rH Q . tn -H m c G GO - O -H O -H >,-H 4-1 •r-i M o en CD •H O C -H -H S-\| 4J CD > SH EH en tn-H eq •H < Q 53 G tn en CD CD O C g O ',£ -H -H CD M -P 4-1 >-l -P d O Q) en O 4-1 CD 0) >i e/} O 4J C w 4-) a! QJ M O C M CD XI 4-1 M O 2 - en C n: 4-) G i- O s >i ,v o o Pi •. 4-1 en CD Ss 4-) d O C/) .. in 03 CD M < g CD i— 1 X! O M di rH rtJ C? o H tj> 0) M ja 3 e/i T3 ^ rd >i 13 d 4J w OJ X! 4-1 M-4 O 4-> G CD O H CD Oj O LO tn C •H M M d o o o iH (N >i 4-1 •H a >H •H X! 00 -H r- en CTN -H rH > iw G O O !H -^ X en CD CD G rH rX -H CD e CD O G U-l 03 H 4-1 rH W 03 -H U T3 11 >i CD CD rH rH CD --H X 4-1 SH G CD CD pq o M CD Q4 en G X! • H 4-> CD 03 o g rH LT) -H P_i cd 4-1 829 ------- Since the sulfates produced from conversion of SO2 are a major portion of aerosols from energy facilities such as power plants, they can affect visibility. Impacts of sulfates alone on visibility were evaluated using conversion rates of 1 and 10 percent S02 to sulfates per hour and these were reported in the six site-specific chapters (Chapters 4-9). A conversion rate of 1 percent could cause visibility during a worst-case episode to be reduced from its present value of 60 to 70 miles to 8 .to 60 miles as shown in Table 10-4. A 10 percent conversion rate could cause visibility to be reduced to 4 to 50 miles. The great- est visibility reduction is associated with power plants and the associated mines. These estimates are for worst-case periods, occurring once to several times per year during air stagnations. In order to provide better information on visibility, a view monitoring network was established in the spring of 1978 at seven locations in Utah and Arizona. The objective is to provide base- line long-range visibility data and document the effects of new energy facilities.1 10.2.5 Plume Opacity Fine particulates in plumes increase opacity in the same way they limit long-range visibility and subsequently obscure the view of an object or scenery in the background.2 Reduced light transmission through energy facility plumes is principally due to the amount of particulates and nitrogen dioxide (N02).3 The par- ticulates are typically from sources described earlier, including fly ash, sulfates, and nitrates from conversion of NOX.4 In the scenarios included in this study, ESP's will remove enough particulates to meet emission standards, but stack plumes would probably exceed the 20 percent opacity new source perfor- mance standard (NSPS) for power plants, (40 percent opacity is ^itchford, Marc L. "Visibility Investigative Experiment in the West." Communique (Las Vegas, Nev.: U.S., Environmental Pro- tection Agency), Vol. 10 (January 2, 1978), pp. 1-2. 2Opacity is the degree to which emissions reduce transmis- sion of light and obscure the view of an object in the background, 40 C.F.R. 60.2 (j). 3Williams, M.D., and E.G. Walther. Theoretical Analysis of Air Quality; Impacts on the Lake Powell Region, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin 8. Los Angeles, Calif.: University of California, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 1975, p. 19. »Ibid. 830 ------- TABLE 10-4 : WORST-CASE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT ONE PERCENT SULFATE CONVERSION RATE FACILITY3 Coal-fired power plant Coal-fired power plant and mine Lurgi gasification and mine Synthane gasification and mine Synthoil liquefaction and mine TOSCO II oil shale Lurgi and Synthane gasification, coal-fired power plants, and mines Coal- fired power plants Lurgi gasification, and mines Lurgi and Synthane gas- ification, Synthoil liquefaction, coal-fired power plant and mines Lurgi gasification and mine (2 plants) Synthane gasification and mine (2 plants) SITE Kaiparowits Riflec Gillette Beulah Farmington Gillette Gillette Colstrip Gillette Rifle Farmington Colstrip Colstrip Farmington Beulah Beulah BACKGROUND VISIBILITY (miles) 70 60 70 60 60 70 70 60 70 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 WORST-CASE SHORT-TERM VISIBILITY6 (miles) 8.6 43.6 9.6 4.8 41.6 48.4 59.5 48.9 48.3 44.4 9.3 8.1 8.7 8.2 37.4 29.4 ] PERCENT VISIBILITY REDUCTION 87.7 27.3 86.3 92.0 30.7 30.9 15.0 18.5 30.3 26.0 84.5 86.5 85.5 86.3 37.7 51.0 facilities modeled are 3,000 megawatt-electric coal-fired power plant, 250 million cubic feet per day (MMcfd) Lurgi gasification, 250 MMcfd Synthane gasification, 100,000 barrels per day (bbl/day) Synthoil liquefaction, 50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II oil shale and the associated mines. The power plants were modeled with 99 percent removal of particulates and 80 percent removal of sulfur dioxide. Short-term visibility impacts were investigated using a "box-type" disper- sion model. This particular model assumes all emissions occurring during a specified time interval are uniformly mixed and confined in a box capped by a lid or stable layer aloft. A lid of 500 meters has been used through the analyses. The conversion rate of sulfur dioxide to sulfates was assumed to be one percent per hour. cThe power plant at Rifle was 1,000 megawatts-electric. 831 ------- permissible for up to 2 minutes during any one hour).1 Although it is difficult to determine violations of this standard, if it were close to stacks, additional particulate removal capabilities would probably be required (up to approximately 99.9 percent of all plume particulates on some energy facilities). Analysis of air quality impacts in the Lake Powell region due to the Navajo power plant has indicated that under stable atmospheric conditions and low wind speed, significant plume opacity would occur further than 25 miles downwind from the plant.2 Although difficult to predict, similar impacts could result from power plants modeled in this study. 10.2.6 Cooling Tower Salt Deposition Cooling tower "drift" (i.e., emissions from wet-cooling towers) contains primarily calcium, magnesium, and sodium salts as well as other chemcials contained in the cooling water. The quantity of these salts emitted depends on the amount of cooling water required for the facility and the content of dissolved solids in the water source. Depending on the site, drift from a Lurgi facility is esti- mated to range from 400 to 600 pounds of dissolved solids per day; from a Synthane facility, 700 to 1,000 pounds per day; from a Synthoil facility, 1,000 to 1,700 pounds per day; and from a 3,000 megawatt-electric (MWe) power plant, 3,000 to 6,400 pounds per day.3 The salts are entrained in mist of varying particle size and are deposited over a large area. As shown in Table 10-5, deposi- tion rates are much higher in close proximity to facilities than MO C.F.R. 60.42(a) (2) . 2Williams, M.D., and E.G. Walther. Theoretical Analysis of Air Quality: Impacts on the Lake Powell Region, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin 8. Los Angeles, Calif.: University of California, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 1975, pp. 20-22. 3The quantity of salt in cooling tower drift depends not only on the size and operation of the facility but also on the total dissolved solids (TDS) content of the cooling water. The TDS in the source water for the six sites analyzed is (in ppm): Kaiparo- wits, 7,120; Farmington, 3,330; Rifle, 3,500; Gillette, 3,870; Colstrip, 3,200; and Beulah, 4,580. Each cell in a cooling tower circulates water at a rate of 15,300 gallons per minute and emits about 1.53 gallons per minute as a mist. A 3,000 MWe power plant has 64 cooling tower cells; a Lurgi plant, 11; a Synthane plant, 6; and a Synthoil plant, 16. Load factors are 70 percent for the power plant and 90 percent for the synthetic fuel facilities. 832 ------- TABLE 10-5: COOLING TOWER SALT DEPOSITS FOR SITE-SPECIFIC SCENARIOS3 (pounds per acre per year) SCENARIO Kaiparowits Nava jo/Farming ton Rifle Gillette Colstrip Beulah DISTANCE FROM COOLING TOWERSb TO 1 MILE 80 5-23 5-23 7-70 8.5-91 8.5-91 1 TO 8 MILES 7 0.5-4.9 0.4-1.6 0.7-3.4 0.6-5.8 0.6-5.8 8 TO 23 MILES 0.6 0.1-0.9 0.03-0.10 0.02-0.2 0.02-0.2 0.02-0.2 For specific data on deposition from facilities refer to site-specific Chapters 4 through 9. ^Ranges are due to different types of facilities. at a distance. Some interaction of salt deposition from among the various plants also occurs, although at rates significantly below maximum deposition rates that occur near the cooling towers. For example, the area midway between the power plant and Synthane plant in the Gillette scenario will receive an average of 3.7 pounds of salt per acre per year. Effects of cooling tower drift are briefly summarized in the ecological impact sections of the site-specific Chapters 4 through 9. Generally, surveys of the effect of cooling tower drift have not shown alterations in plant or animal populatons outside fa- cility boundaries, even for facilities using brackish or saline cooling water.1 Local effects include corrosion of equipment within facility boundaries.2 Whether salt deposition influences ^U.S., Environmental Protection Agency. Development Docu- ment for Effluent Limitation Guidelines and New Source Performance Standards for the Steam Electric Power Generating Point Source Category. Washington, D.C.: Environmental Protection Agency, 1974, p. 642. 2Ibid., p. 641. 833 ------- such factors as vegetation productivity, and ground or surface water salinity is dependent on natural rates of salt deposition and removal. Adverse effects on the environment (such as reduced vegetation) have only been documented within several hundred yards of cooling towers.1 10.2.7 Cooling Tower Fogging and Icing Fogging and icing can be two of the more noticeable effects of wet cooling towers. Fog is produced^when warm humid air from the towers mixes with cold ambient air.2 When this occurs, the cooling tower vapor condenses into a fog or into ice if the tem- perature is below freezing. The development of fog depends largely on local conditions; the areas normally susceptable are those where natural fogs frequently occur.3 The sites in the eight-state study area typically have about 10 foggy days per year. Northern Great Plains locations have a greater tendency to develop cooling tower fogs than do southwestern sites since their climates are cooler. According to criteria developed through Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sponsored studies, most of the western region has a "low" potential for cooling tower fogging.1 Portions of North Dakota, South Dakota, eastern Wyoming, and southeastern Montana have a "moderate" potential.5 The fog plume of mechanical draft cooling towers is emitted close to the ground, and its principal ctdverse effect is impaired vehicle travel, especially when icing occurs (approximately 100 days in most sites). Other types of adverse environmental effects may occur, such as impaired scenic vistas close to facilities. The potential for modification of regional or local weather pat- terns also constitutes a possible impact, but this has not been verified.6 ^.S., Environmental Protection Agency. Development Docu- ment for Effluent Limitation Guidelines and New Source Performance Standards for the Steam Electric Power Generating Point Source Category. Washington, D.C.: Environmental Protection Agency, 1974, p. 643. 2 Ibid. 3 Ibid. * Ibid. 5Ibid., p. 645. 6 Ibid., p. 648. 834 ------- 10.2.8 Fugitive Dust Fugitive dust emissions from surface coal mining operations are produced by the removal, loading, and dumping of overburden (material overlaying the coal) and by blasting, drilling, loading, transporting, and dumping the coal. Heavy machinery (loaders, scrapers, graders, tractors) traveling on the haul roads also produce dust. The entire exposed surface area of the mine can contribute to wind blown dust. The quantity of fugitive dust produced is determined by the amount of material available for entrainment which is induced by wind action. Blasting, loading, and dumping will typically produce higher concentrations of particulate emissions than dril- ling, transporting, or exposed storage piles. As would be ex- pected, wind velocity strongly affects the quantity of emissions of fugitive dust.1 Higher concentrations of dust tend to occur closer to the ground, but levels are highly erratic.2 Particu- late concentrations often increase with downwind sampling dis- tances (10 to 50 meters). Variations in emissions among mines are attributable to dif- ferences in soil type, equipment used, climate, and dust suppres- sion methods employed. Particulate emissions (in pounds per ton [Ibs/ton] of coal mined) were estimated for five coal mines in the West. The five sites and estimated emission were: northeast Colorado (1.5 Ibs/ton); southwest Wyoming (2.9 Ibs/ton); southeast Montana (0.6 Ibs/ton); central North Dakota (1.2 Ibs/ton); and northern Wyoming (1.0 Ibs/ton coal).3 This range represents 0.03 to 0.09 pounds per million British thermal unit (Btu) of coal mined. 10.2.9 Startup and Shutdown When a coal-fired power generation unit is started up (either after being shut down for maintenance or in order to meet peak demands) air emissions are sometimes completely uncontrolled for an interim time period. During this startup period emissions are exempt from NSPS. The period of controlled emissions during startup (upset conditions) depends on the kind of emission con- trol equipment used. For example, if control devices are inte- grated into the plant design for operation prior to firing the ^EDCo-Environmental, Inc. Survey of Fugitive Dust, EPA Contract No. 68-01-4489. Kansas City, Mo.: PEDCo-Environmental, n.d., p. 54. 2 Ibid. 3 Ibid., p. 63. 835 ------- boiler, no warm-up period may be needed. However, some ESP's and scrubber units only control emissions when flue gas streams are appropriately heated and the units are electrically energized. For example, one of the Four Corners power plants in north- western New Mexico has an ESP system that requires a warm-up period. Data on that plant from the New Mexico Health and. Social Services Department indicates that the shortest startup time (warm-up period) during the last 5 years was 7 minutes and the longest was 1 week.l The mean time of operation with uncon- trolled emissions was 16.86 hours and most startups lasted longer than 12 hours. When data over the last 5 years was averaged, the plant operated, on the average, 2 hours per day with un- controlled emissions.2 The main causes of breakdowns during this 5 year period were problems with the boiler, power distribution and generation, and the ESP. 10.2.10 Air Impacts of Geothermal Development For the case of hot water geothermal development, hydrogen sulfite (H2S) air emissions, considered a potential problem, were modeled in order to predict air concentrations under worst case meteorological conditions. The results of that modeling are given in Table 10-6 along with the state standards for,H2S. These data indicate that no standards will be violated if 99 to 99.9 percent emission control is achieved. Violations could occur with only 90 percent control. The Stretford process has been used in in- dustrial applications for H2S removal achieving 99.99 percent removal. Thus, the technology required for H2S control is thought to be available and feasible for geothermal applications. 10.3 TRACE ELEMENTS3 Trace elements are those elements present in the earth's crust at concentrations of 0.1 percent (1,000 ppm) or less. The xNew Mexico, Health and Social Services Department. "Upset Analysis of the Four Corners Power Plant." March 7, 1978. 2Ibid. 3Sources of information for this discussion are Kash, Don E., et al. The Impact of Accelerated Coal Utilization, Contract No. OTA-C-182^Norman,Okla.:University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program, 1977; and Radian Corporation. The Assess- ment of Residuals Disposal for Steam Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States, EPA Contract No. 68-01-1916. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1978, pp. 92-110. The latter source also contains information on the organic compounds that are formed during conversion and can be emitted. 836 ------- TABLE 10-6: WORST-CASE HYDROGEN SULFIDE IMPACTS FROM A 100 MEGAWATT GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANT (micrograms per cubic meter) Control (H2S Removal) 90 % 99 % 99.9% Standards'1 New Mexico Wyoming Montana North Dakota CONCENTRATION AND STANDARDS (ONE-HALF HOUR AVERAGING TIME) FLASHED STEAM POWER GENERATION11 133 13.3 NC BINARY PROCESS POWER GENERATION0 NC 46.2 - 59.3 4.6 - 5.9 46 - 152 40 - 70 42 - 70 45 - 75 H2S = hydrogen sulfide NC = not considered aAssuming worst case meteorology Stack parameters for flashed steam include 60 feet stack height, 85°F temperature, 30 feet per second flow velocity and a volumetric flow rate of 2.8 x io3 cubic feet per minute. £ Stack parameters for binary fluid process include 130 feet stack height, 125°F temperature, 30 feet per second flow velocity, and a volumetric flow rate ranging from 3.62 x 104 cubic feet per minute to 3.62 x 103 cubic feet per minute. dFrom White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,Forthcoming, Chapter 2. In New Mexico, the lower standard applies statewide except in the Pecos Permian Basin industrial area where the high standard applies. In Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota, the lower standard may not be violated more than two times in five consecu- tive days and the higher standard may not be violated more than two times a year. 837 ------- quantity and kinds of trace elements in coal vary with location (Table 10-7). Each coal has a unique composition, and methods used to predict exactly what happens to the trace elements in coal during energy conversion processes have not been fully devel- oped. As a result, data on trace element emissions and discharges from coal conversion technologies are quite preliminary. Esti- mated amounts of trace elements are also present in the source water used for plant cooling (Table 10-3). The fate of these elements is also difficult to predict. However, they can be emitted to the atmopshere in a gaseous form or as a mist in the cooling tower drift or they may be discharged in some liquid or solid form in the wastewater effluents from the conversion tech- nology. The total amount of trace elements introduced into the en- vironment become quite large when the amount of coal processed is considered. For example, for a 3,000 MWe coal fired electric power plant at Gillette, the quantity of a single trace element (arsenic) processed would range from 12.8 to 51.2 tons per year (tpy) (assuming a range of 1-4 ppm concentration of arsenic in Gillette coal as shown in Table 10-7). As a point of comparison with the amounts of this element occurring naturally in surface waters, the arsenic in power plant cooling water supply for Gillette would be 0.04 to 0.02 tpy depending on local concentra- tions. At Colstrip, 80 tpy of lead will be contained within the coal for two 3,000 MWe power plants; about 500 to 2,000 times as much as present in the cooling water. Ef a billion tons of coal were processed, a single trace element with a concentration of 10 ppm would account for 10,000 tons of residual waste in a single year. These trace elements may be emitted into the atmopshere via the stack, into holding ponds via wastewater discharge, or into groundwater via leaching of solid wastes. The amount of trace elements produced as residuals from coal conversion depends pri- marily on the amount of trace elements in the raw coal, but the emission or effluent streams in which they are found and the chemical forms that occur depends on the temperature at which each trace elements volatizes and on the operation of the coal conver- sion technology. Trace elements will appear in the bottom ash, fly ash, flue gas desulfurization (FGD) sludge, and other residual streams (e.g., wastewater from water treatment and cooling tower blowdown), In the case of synthetic fuels facilities, some trace elements may also be present in the product gas and oil. Combustion of coal is thought to cause most trace elements to occur in the fly ash and scrubber sludge and a reduced concentration of volatile trace elements in the bottom ash. Only volatile elements are thought to be present in the synthetic gas and oil. Under the high temperature processing conditions for coal in synthetic fuel 838 ------- TABLE 10-7: TRACE ELEMENTS IN SELECTED WESTERN COALS3 ELEMENT Antimony Arsenic Beryllium Cadmium Chromium Flourine Lead Manganese Mercury Nickel Selenium Uranium Vanadium Zinc GILLETTE (ppm) .1 - .7 1-4 .2 - .7 .1 - .2 NA 30 - 200 1.5 - 40 NA .1 - .28 NA .2 - 3.2 .3 - 3.2 NA 2.1 - 25 NAVAJO/FARMINGTON (ppm) .3 - 1.2 .1-3 NA .2 - .4 NA 200 - 780 1.4 - 4.0 NA .2 - .3 3-30 .1 - .2 NA NA 1.1 - 27 KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE (ppm) 0.6 - .2 .02 - 1.6 .3 - .7 .06 - 1.6 1.3 - 5.9 8-96 NA 4-8 .03 - .05 4-6 0-8 .3-1 7-9 NA ppm = parts per million by weight NA = not available Sinor, J.E. Evaluation of Background Data Relating to New Source Performance Standards for Lurgi Gasification, Final Report, EPA 600/7-77-057, EPA Contract No. 68-02-2152, Task 11. Denver, Colo.: Cameron Engineers, Inc., 1977 (source for Navajo/ Farmington, New Mexico data). U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Final Environmental Impact State- ment; Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976 (source for Kaiparowits/ Escalante data). 839 ------- TABLE 10-8: CONCENTRATIONS OF TRACE ELEMENTS IN SELECTED SOURCE WATER3 (parts per million by weight) ELEMENT Arsenic Barium Beryllium Cadmium Chromium Cobalt Copper Lead Manganese Mercury Molybdenum Nickel Radon Selenium Strontium Uranium Vanadium Zinc BEULAH, LAKE SAKAKAWEA 0-0.004 0-0.200 0 0-0.001 0-<0.010 0-0.001 0-0.002 0-0.002 0-0.002 0-< 0.0005 0.002-0.003 0.003-0.004 NA 0-0.001 0.470-0.530 NA NA 0.005-0.020 COLSTRIP, YELLOWSTONE RIVER 0.004-0.007 NA 0-0.010 0-<0.010 0 NA 0.001-0.002 0.001-0.004 0-0.010 0-0.0002 0.001-0.002 0.002-0.005 NA 0.001-0.002 NA NA 0-00016 0-0.010 GILLETTE, YELLOWSTONE RIVER 0.001-0.005 NA 0-<0.010 0 0-0.010 NA 0.002 0.001-0.002 0-0.005 0-0.0002 0.001-0.003 0.002-0.003 NA 0.001-0.002 NA NA 0.001-0.0012 0 GILLETTE, NORTH PLATTE RIVER 0.002-0.005 0.056-0.062 0-<0.001 <0. 002-0. 003 <0.003 <0. 002-0. 003 0.002-0.004 <0. 003-0. 006 0.018-0.022 NA 0.003 < 0.002-0. 003 0.0001 0.005-0.007 0.500-0.600 0.010 <0. 002-0. 003 0-0.010 NA = not available aRadian Corporation. The Assessment of Residuals Disposal for Steam Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1978, p. 79. 840 ------- production volatile trace elements that may occur in the product gas or oil include mercury, antimony, fluoride, selenium, vana- dium, lead, molybedenum, nickel, boron, zinc, cadmium, chromium, copper, cobalt, uranium, arsenic, and silver. These are expected to occur in greatest concentration in the FGD sludge and occur in very low concentrations in the bottom ash. Nonvolatile elements (e.g., beryllium, barium, iron, and manganese) will be present in the bottom ash and fly ash in similar proportions. Gaseous emissions of trace elements are difficult to control. Current air pollution control technologies are largely ineffective in controlling gaseous emissions of rare elements. However, when trace elements are part of liquid or solid waste streams, they can be more easily controlled by discharging them to holding ponds or landfills. But the potential for contamination of sur- face or groundwater still exists from seepage, leaks, or failures of the liquid waste holding ponds or solid waste landfill. Very little is known about the seriousness of emissions to the atmosphere of trace elements from coal, although the problem is now receiving increased research attention. Similarly, the effects of trace elements on human health are not well understood; however, a summary of known or anticipated effects is presented in Section 10.7 (public health impacts). 10.4 SOLID WASTE TREATMENT AND DISPOSAL By 1980, nationwide wastes from coal-fired power plants are estimated to be 70 million tpy from S02 (FGD) scrubbers and 60 million tpy of fly ash from the ESP and bottom ash collection systems.1 A single 1,000 MWe power plant is estimated to produce 44 million tons of waste in a 30-year period.2 The quantities and composition of solid wastes produced from each type of energy conversion facility at each site are given in the water sections of Chapters 4 through 9. This section deals with the overall problem of treatment and disposal of these wastes. 10.4.1 Application of Holding Ponds Holding ponds are large, man-made basins widely used for retaining liquid effluents from coal conversion facilities in the West while allowing the water to be evaporated. However, wastes can leave the holding pond and become environmental problems through evaporation, wind erosion, leaching, accidental berm !Gavande, S.A., W.F. Holland, and C.S. Collins. Survey of Technological and Environmental Aspects of Wet-Residue Disposal in Evaporative Holding Ponds, Final Report. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1978. 2Ibid. 841 ------- failures, and pond overflow.1 Some waste pollutants from hold- ing ponds are released to the air along with evaporated water. These include H2S, methane, ammonia, and other nitrogen gases which are contained in the sludge. Thus, contamination of areas immediately adjacent to the holding pond can occur by evapora- tion and wind-whipped spray if the wastes are in liquid form, or by wind erosion of dried wastes in the holding pond. Seepage from the holding pond is likely to leach out nitrates, chlorides, sulfates, boron, and cyanide through the soil to adjacent ground- water systems.2 If the holding pond leaks, the more soluble elements in the effluent may leach into the underground water system. Heavy rains or a period of decreased evaporation rate coupled with a heavy rate of effluent inflow into the holding pond can cause pond overflow and subsequent pollution of surface or groundwaters. Good pond design and use of natural or synthe- tic liners can be used to reduce the chance of overflow and leaching. Groundwater monitoring can be used to assess the ex- tent of leaching. Liquid or solid residuals usually consist of fly ash from the ESP, bottom ash, FGD sludge, and demineralizer and cooling tower blowdown liquids. Although many disposal configurations are possible, some facility configurations include three types of disposal ponds and at least one landfill.3 Fly ash is dry and is usually deposited directly in a landfill. Bottom ash is usually sluiced to an ash pond, allowed to settle, and the water sent to an evaporation pond along with water from the demineralizer. FGD sludge is usually routed along with cooling tower wastewater to a sludge pond. Solids from the ash and sludge ponds are periodi- cally removed by dredging or other dewatering techniques and deposited in a landfill. Fly ash, bottom ash, and FGD sludge may be mixed together before land filling to enhance compaction and stabilization. Disposal of these solid wastes can require a large amount of land for interim storage ponds and for final dis- posal in landfills. A. Pond Design Evaporative holding ponds located over thick, impermeable clay deposits reduce the chance of groundwater contamination in Gavande, S.A., W.F. Holland, and C.S. Collins. Survey of Technological and Environmental Aspects of Wet-Residue Disposal in Evaporative Holding Ponds, Final Report. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1978. 2Ibid. 3Radian Corporation. The Assessment of Residuals Disposal for Steam Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1978. 842 ------- the event of accidental overflow or seepage. If a suitable clay is located with 30 miles of the power plant, it may be economi- cally and technically feasible to transport the clay to the pond site. The pond consists of an excavated area (usually rectangular to accommodate large earth-moving equipment) with the excavated material used to construct an embankment (berm) on the sides. Currently, most holding ponds are unlined since unlined ponds are easier and more economical to construct. However, unlined ponds pose the greatest potential for groundwater contamination. This potential danger has led to the recent development of various pond lining methods to prevent seepage. Alternative pond linings include clay, synthetic membranes, and cement or asphaltic coat- ings of the pond bottom and sides. The environmental impact of evaporative holding ponds de- pends primarily on the pond's capacity to contain the accumula- tion of wastes from an energy facility and on the ability of operators to retire the site safely and to a productive use. Very little data are available regarding the performance of hold- ing ponds after construction. Ultimately, the capacity for ground and surface water contamination depends on the nature of the local geologic, climatic and hydrologic conditions, and the in- tegrity of the holding pond system, including human management capability. B. Disposal of Ponded Wastes Fly ash, bottom ash, and FGD sludge are eventually deposited in landfills or holding ponds and stabilized by chemical addition or evaporation to dryness. Some portions of all three solid waste streams may be mixed together prior to this final deposition. Because very few regulations cover FGD sludge, disposal procedures are uncertain. In addition, the design of a holding pond must take into account local weather extremes and hydrogeologic condi- tions which vary greatly from north to south in the West. Op- timum design and operation of holding ponds has not been deter- mined for most areas in the eight-state study area. There is very limited published information on the use of liners for holding ponds. In one system, a polyvinyl chloride (synthetic) liner covered with one foot of soil was first used but was later found inadequate because heavy equipment could not enter the pond for cleaning. Soil cement was later used but was found to deteriorate severely. Finally, ashpaltic concrete was used to line five of six ponds at the site and was found satis- factory. 1 !Gavande, S.A., W.F. Holland, and C.S. Collins. Survey of Technological and Environmental Aspects of Wet-Residue Disposal in Evaporative Holding Ponds, Final Report. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1978, pp. 68-69. 843 ------- Studies of the physical properties of FGD system wastes indicate that the material cannot usually be placed in a landfill without the aid of a chemical stabilization agent. Usually 35 to 55 percent of the water may be removed from the sludge in the holding pond prior to disposal. The sludge can be mixed with fly ash and lime or with cement fixatives and transported to a land- fill. Although chemical fixation of power plant wastes is expen- sive, it would substantially reduce the risks of solid wastes leaching into ground or surface water after disposal.1 After deposition in a landfill, wastes could be compacted and covered with several feet of compacted soil. The site may then be revege- tated to prevent erosion of the soil cover. In arid and semiarid regions of the West, supplementary irrigation will probably be needed if a soil stabilization plant cover is to be established over disposed wastes. Although the potential toxicity of power plant waste leach- ates has not been established at this time, there -are numerous potentially toxic elements produced in the coal conversion pro- cess discussed in the following sections. For example, arsenic, selenium, boron, chloride, mercury, and sulfates can produce det- rimental impacts on the environment, and, if not properly dis- posed of, may eventually pose a major threat to human health (see Section 10.7). 10.4.2 Effects of Ponds or Landfills on Groundwater The impact of solid waste disposal on groundwater quality depends on the toxicity of chemicals present. For coal-fired power plants the major sources of the chemicals are soluble spe- cies in the ash and in the scrubber liquor blowdown. The scrubber liquor is the most important factor affecting the leachate quality during initial leaching of the disposed solids into the soil.2 After that, the solubility of the ash and scrubber solids is most important. Table 10-9 illustrates average chemical composition of FGD sludge liquors from four power plants. Several chemical species have average (mean) concentrations above; the EPA drinking water standards. These elements include arsenic, boron, total chromium, iron, lead, manganese, mercury, selenium, chloride, fluoride, and sulfates. Particular consideration should be given to mercury 1 Jones, Julian W. "Disposal of Flue-Gas Cleaning Wastes." Chemical Engineering, Vol. 84 (February 14, 1977), pp. 79-85. 2Rossoff, J. , et al. Disposal of By-Products from Non- Regenerable Flue Gas Desulfurization Systems,Second Progress Report, EPA-600/7-77-052.Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. 844 ------- TABLE 10-9: RANGE OF CONCENTRATION OF SELECTED CONSTITUENTS IN SCRUBBER LIQUORS CONSTITUENTS Arsenic Beryllium Boron Cadmium Calcium Chromium (total) Cobalt Copper Iron Lead Magnesium Manganese Mercury Molybdenum Nickel Potassium Selenium Silver Sodium Tin Vanadium Zinc Chloride Fluoride Sulfite Sulfate Phosphate Chemical Oxygen Demand Total Dissolved Solids Total Alkalinity (as CaC03) Acidity /Alkalinity RANGE OF CONSTITUENT CONCENTRATIONS a (micrograms per liter) <0. 004-0. 3 <0.002-.14 8.0-46 0.004-.11 520-3,000 .01-. 5 .10-. 7 <0.002-.2 .02-8.1 .01-. 4 3-2,750 .09-2.5 .003-. 07 .91-6.3 .05-1.5 5.9-32 <0. 001-2. 2 0.005-.6 14-2,400 3.1-3.5 <0.001-.67 .01-. 35 420-4,800 .07-10 .8-3,500 720-10,000 .03-. 41 60-390 3,200-150,000 41-150 3.04-10.7 EPA DRINKING WATER STANDARDS DECEMBER 1976 0.05b 1.0b 0.01b 0.05b 1.0 0.3b 0.05b 0.05b, 0.002b 0.01b 0.05b no limit0 5.0 250. Ob 0.7-1.2b'd 250.0b'd no limitc no limitc no limit0 5-9b EPA = Environmental Protection Agency CaCO, calcium carbonate Source: Rossoff, J., et al. Disposal of By-Products from Non- Regenerable Flue Gas Desulfurization Systems, Second Progress Report, EPA-600/7-77-052. Washington, D.C. : U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. aSamples obtained from: EPA/Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), Shawnee, Steam Plant - venturi and spray tower; EPA/TVA Shawnee Steam Plant - turbulent contact absorber; Arizona Public Service Cholla Station - flooded disk scrubber and absorption tower; and Duquesne Light Phillips Station - single - and dual-stage venturi. Scrubber liquor effluent from one or more power plants exceeds water criteria. c"No limit" indicates that insufficient data existed for prescrib- ing limits. U.S., Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Public Health Service, USPHS Drinking Water Standards 1962, USPHS Publication No. 956. Washington, D.C.:Public Health Service, 1962. 845 ------- because of its high toxicity in very low concentrations. The chloride and sulfate levels are also high. The leachate produced from holding ponds has been charac- terized by several laboratory pond simulation studies and from actual operating ponds.1 Results from leaching studies of three sludges are summarized in Table 10-10. The values indicate averages from the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Shawnee lime- stone sludge, Arizona Public Service Cholla limestone sludge, and the Southern California Edison, Mohave limestone sludge. The concentration of major components (sulfate, chloride) decreased rapidly during the first few displacements of water through the sludge. Some trace elements are more difficult to flush from the system. However, some trace elements will continue to be flushed from fine particulate matter and subsequently enter soils in small quantities. In 1974, EPA began a field evaluation of the disposal of un- treated and treated flue gas cleaning wastes.2 The disposal evaluation site was located near the Shawnee coal-fired power plant (Paducah, Kentucky). In the clay lined ponds with low permeability, the groundwaters show no evidence of altered qual- ity.3 However, leachate studies showed that the concentrations of major dissolved solids, i.e., chlorides, sulfates, and total dissolved solids (TDS), progressively increase in the leachate during the first year. The data also indicate that the concen- trations may level off at approximately those measured between the second and fifth year. The concentrations of heavy metals in the leachate and the liquor show trends similar to those of the major species. However, it is not possible to project exact concentrations because of the relatively small amounts present and the complex chemistry involved. Other studies at fly ash disposal sites indicate that trace metals are released from the pond to the groundwater at generally ^ossoff, J., et al. Disposal of By-Products from Non- Regenerable Flue Gas Desulfurization Systems, Second Progress Report, EPA-600/7-77-052. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977; and Holland, W.F., et al. Environmental Effects of Trace Elements from Ponded Ash and Scrubber Sludge. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1975. 2Leo, P.P., and J. Rossoff. Control of Waste and Water Pol- lution from Power Plant Flue Gas Cleaning Systems, First Annual R&D Report, EPA 600/7-76-018. Research Triangle Park, N.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1976. 3Ibid. 846 ------- TABLE 10-10: SELECTED COMPOSITION OF SLUDGE LIQUORS AND LEACHATES CONSTITUENT Arsenic Cadmium Chromium Copper Lead Mercury Selenium Zinc Chloride Floride Sulfate Acidity /Alkalinity Total Dissolved Solids SLUDGE LIQUOR COMPOSITION3 (mg/£) <0. 004-0. 14 0.003-0.05 0.09-0.25 0.01-0.56 0.01-0.25 <. 005-0. 13 0.12-2.5 0.07-0.18 1,430-2,225 0.7-30 4,400-25,000 4.3-8.3 9,100-92,500 LEACHATES COMPOSITION3 (mg/£) FIRST LEACHINGb <0. 004-0. 06 0.001-0.05 0.. 019-0. 05 0.007-0.11 0.016-1.7 0.00008-0.05 0.03-0.2 0.06-2.7 900-7,700 2.4-10.8 3,500-9,000 4.6-8.5 6,500-24,300 FIFTIETH LEACHING0 <0.004 <.001-0.003 0.002-0.015 0.01-0.03 <0. 001-0. 08 <. 00005-0. 004 0.004-0.01 0.01-0.045 65-130 <0. 2-6.1 1,000-1,300 4.5-7.45 1,600-2,400 mg/£ = micrograms per liter < = less than aBased on data from Southern California Edison Mohave limestone sludge, Arizona Public Service Cholla limestone sludge and Tennessee Valley Authority Shawnee limestone sludge (aerobic and anaerobic conditions). ^Leachate produced from first displacement of pore space by infiltrating water. cThe Leachate produced after the 50th displacement of the pore space by infiltrating water. 847 ------- low levels.1 Increased concentrations of several times the nor- mal levels occur when ponds are first filled and again when main- tenance results in a large fly ash loading. Once trace metals are released, their behavior in groundwater depends upon the site- specific chemical and hydrologic characteristics. Metals were found to accumulate in the soils at the point where pond seepage water and natural groundwater meet, probably due to chemical pre- cipitation and absorption onto soils. Arsenic in particular has displayed high increases over background levels. Potential tox- icity of leachates has not been extensively established at this time. Information on general leachate quality, however, indicates a potential pollution problem and a need for careful site selec- tion, monitoring, installation of liners, and other management practices. 10.5 NOISE IMPACTS 10.5.1 Introduction Noise can be defined as any sound that may produce an unde- sired physiological or psychological effect in an individual or animal or that may interfere with the behavior of an indi- vidual or group.2 Noise can temporarily or permanently damage hearing, interfere with speech communications and the perception of auditory signals, disturb sleep, and interfere with the per- formance of complicated tasks. More intangibly, it can be a source of annoyance and adversely affect mood.3 Within recent years, recognition and quantification of these effects have re- sulted in the identification of noise as an environmental pol- lutant that raises both social and health concerns.1 The following analysis of noise impacts focuses on cases representative of conditions encountered in the mining, con- struction, and operation activities of energy development. Noise levels for three activities are estimated: surface strip mining, constructing a 3,000 MWe power plant, and operating a 3,000 MWe power plant. These cases were analyzed to determine whether the ^heis, J.L., et al. Field Investigations of Trace Metals in Ground Water from Fly Ash Disposal, Draft. South Bend, Ind.: University of Notre Dame, Department of Civil Engineering, 1977. 2Kerbec, Matthew J. "Noise and Hearing," Preprint from 1972 edition of Your Government and the Environment. Arlington, Va.: Output Systems Corporation, 1971. 3Miller, James D. Effects of Noise on People. St. Louis, Mo.: Central Institute for the Deaf, 1971. "White, Frederick. Our Acoustic Environment. New York, N.Y.: Wiley, 1975. 848 ------- noise they produce would be a source of concern for nearby popula- tions. Evaluations were based on the equivalent sound level av- eraged over 24 hours and historical data on the response of humans to these average levels. Transportation noise impacts are dis- cussed in Chapter 11.6. 10.5.2 Criteria for Noise Impacts In evaluations of the impact of environmental noise, EPA criteria were used as the basis for estimating effects from con- struction, operation, and mining.1 The noise level limits con- sidered by EPA to be essential to protect public welfare and safety are presented in Table 10-11. Additional criteria may be devel- oped based on the efforts required to communicate in the presence of ambient sound levels. These efforts are shown in Table 10-12 and indicate, for example, that for an ambient sound level of 78 decibels (dB) a very loud voice must be used to communicate with someone only 1 foot away. These criteria are consistent with the effect of noise on telephone communication, where a background noise level above 75 decibels A-weighted (dBA) makes telephone conversation difficult (Table 10-13). The change in sound level is an important factor in assessing the impact from added noise sources. It is just possible to de- tect a change in noise level of 2-3 dBA, while a 5 dBA change is readily apparent. An increase in noise level of 10 dBA is equiva- lent to a doubling of the loudness of the sound. The effects of noise on wildlife and domestic animals are less well understood. Studies of animals subjected to varying noise exposures in laboratories have demonstrated physiological and behavioral changes, and these reactions are assumed applicable to wildlife. However, no scientific evidence currently correlates the two. Large animals adapt quite readily to high sound levels. Conversely, loud noise disrupts brooding in poultry and conse- quently can decrease egg production.2 The major effect of noise on wildlife is related to the use of auditory signals. Acoustic signals are important for survival in some wildlife species. Probably the most important effect is re- lated to the prey-predator situation. An animal that relies on its ears to locate prey and an animal that relies on its ears to detect !EPA recommends use of a measure which accounts for greater impact than noise makes at night compared to the day, or the "day- night average sound level." This measure is called decibels A- weighted, or dBA. 2Memphis State University. Effects of Noise on Wildlife and Other Animals. Springfield, Va.: National Technical Information Service, 1971. 849 ------- TABLE 10-11: SOUND LEVELS REQUIRED TO PROTECT PUBLIC HEALTH AND WELFARE3 EFFECT LEVEL1 AREA Hearing loss Outdoor activity interference and annoyance 70 dB 55 dB Leq(24) 55 dB Indoor activity interference and annoyance Jdn Leq(24) 54 dB 45 dB All areas Outdoors in residential areas and farms and other outdoor areas where people spend widely varying amounts of time and other places in which quiet is a basis for use. Outdoor areas where people spend limited amounts of time, such as school yards, play- grounds, etc. Indoor residential areas. Other indoor areas with human activities such as schools, etc. dB = decibel(s) Jeq = the sound level averaged over a 24-hour period. Ldn = the sound level Leq weighted with a 10 dB larger impact for nighttime sounds. aU.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Noise Abatement and Control. Information on Levels of Environmental Noise Requisite to Protect Public Health and Welfare with an Adequate Margin of Safety. Arlington, Va.: Environmental Protection Agency, 1974, p. 3. bTable to be read as follows: To protect from a hearing loss, the sound level Leq(24) must be less than 70 dB in all areas, both indoor and outdoor. GHearing loss level represents annual averages of daily sound level over a period of 40 years that produces impairment to hearing. 850 ------- TABLE 10-12: SOUND LEVELS PERMITTING SPEECH COMMUNICATION T.T^TFNFR DISTANCE (feet) 1 2 3 4 5 6 12 AMBIENT SOUND LEVEL FOR SPEECH COMMUNICATION (dBA) LOW VOICE 60 54 50 48 46 44 38 NORMAL VOICE 66 60 56 54 52 50 44 RAISED VOICE 72 66 62 60 58 56 50 VERY LOUD VOICE 78 72 68 66 64 62 56 dBA = decibels A-weighted Source: Tracer, Inc. Guidelines on Noise. Washington, D.C.: American Petroleum Insti- tute, 1973. TABLE 10-13: QUALITY OF TELEPHONE USAGE IN THE PRESENCE OF STEADY- STATE MASKING NOISE NOISE LEVEL (dBA)a TELEPHONE USAGE 30-50 50-65 65-75 Above 75 Satisfactory Slightly Difficult Difficult Unsatisfactory dBA = decibels A-weighted Source: Tracer, Inc. Guidelines on Noise. Washington, D.C.: American Petroleum Institute, 1973 851 ------- predators are both impaired by intruding noise.1 The reception of auditory mating signals could also be limited and therefore affect reproduction. Distress or warning signals from mother animals to infants (or vice versa) or within groups of social animals "could be masked and possibly lead to increased mortality. There are clues that short-term high noise levels may startle wild game birds and stop the brooding cycle for an entire season.2 In the following analysis, noise levels were predicted from a model incorporating information on ambient air and topographic conditions and the properties of energy dispersion (sound energy) in air under these conditions. The results of this model predict energy levels at selected distances from single or multiple sources, The results are presented in terms of day-night equivalent sound levels (Ldn)• 10.5.3 Surface Strip Mining The principal noise sources during typical strip-mining op- erations will be bulldozers, the dragline, rock drills, -blasting, and coal haulers.3 A typical mining operation is shown in Figure 10-2, emphasizing the topographic barriers to noise from surface mining. Sound levels for each of the above sources are given in Table 10-14. The 50-foot high piles of overburden will effec- tively block most sound radiation. For the typical mining geome- try shown in Figure 10-2, the spoil piles will weaken radiated levels by about 15 dBA in the northern and southern quadrants. Predicted radiation noise levels, in the form of L^ contours, are shown in Figure 10-3 for the typical surface mining operation. Haulers will be the principal noise source in mining. How- ever, their L<3n will be less than 55 dBA in all directions for distances greater than 2,000 feet and will have less impact than the noise levels predicted for power plant construction and opera- tion. 10.5.4 Plant Construction Facility construction noise will be caused primarily by heavy construction equipment. Plant construction noise is usually 1 Memphis State University. Effects of Noise on Wildlife and Other Animals. Springfield, Va.: National Technical Information Service, 1971. 2 Ibid. 3The noise impact of blasting depends on size and depth of charge, acoustic properties of soil, and presence of sound atten- uating barriers, thus is highly variable. 852 ------- TABLE 10-14: REPRESENTATIVE SOUND LEVEL FOR MINING NOISE SOURCES EQUIPMENT Dragline Bulldozer Rock Drill Loader Coal Haulers SOUND LEVEL PER (dBA/ vehicle) 68 82 72 72 7 UNIT dBA = decibels A-weighted Source: Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus Laboratories. Detailed Envi- ronmental Analysis Concerning a Pro- posed Coal Gasification Plant for Trans- western Coal Gasification Co., Pacific Coal Gasification Co., and Western Gas- ification Co., and the Expansion of a Strip Mine Operation Near Burnham, N.M. Owned and Operated by Utah Interna- tional, Inc. Columbus, Ohio: Battelle Columbus Laboratories, 1973. concentrated in four areas: reservoir, ash disposal area, evapo- rative ponds, and cooling tower and power block construction. The equipment assumed to be operating in each area was: Reservoir: Ash disposal area: Evaporative ponds: 1 crane, 3 bulldozers, 6 dump trucks; 1 crane, 2 bulldozers, 4 dump trucks; 1 grader, 2 bulldozers; and \ 2 cranes, 6 air compressors, Cooling tower and power block construe- 4 rock drills, 10 pneumatic tion: wrenches, 6 welding generators, 2 graders, 6 dump trucks. The sound levels for each of these pieces of equipment are listed in Table 10-15. Total sound level of the equipment in each of the four areas will be: reservoir, 92.3 dBA; ash disposal, 91.3 dBA; evaporative ponds, 88.5 dBA; and power block and cooling tower, 109.9 dBA. 853 ------- Coal Haulers £^S 50 High Barrier %Mte&]X^k3^i^^ 8S2&23&3H3 Dragline Bulldozer 50' High Barrier (Spozls) m 100 FIGURE 10-2: TYPICAL SURFACE COAL MINE CONFIGURATION 854 ------- Q) CD C •H QJ U -P (0 •H D o o o CM o o o oo o o o o - o o o -3" - o o o oo . I o o o cxl LDN isopleth T ¥ -12000 -8000 -4000 -0 4000 8000 12000 Distance in Feet FIGURE 10-3: RADIATED NOISE FOR TYPICAL COAL MINING OPERATION 855 ------- TABLE 10-15: SOUND LEVELS FOR CONSTRUCTION NOISE SOURCES EQUIPMENT SOUND LEVEL PER UNIT (dBA/item) Bulldozer Air Compressor Welding Generator Rock Drill Pneumatic Drill Crane Grader Dump Truck 80 86 83 99 98 88 86 81 dBA = decibels A-weighted Source: Bolt, Beranek, and Newman. Noise from Construction Equipment and Operations, Building Equipment, and Home Appliances. Cambridge, Mass.: Bolt, Beranek, and Newman, 1971. The principal contributors to cooling tower and power block con- struction will be pneumatic wrenches and rock drills. Trucks will also be significant noise sources, since there are so many. Expected noise radiation during plant construction is shown in Figure 10-4. Contours of constant sound level (Ldn isopleths) are shown in 5-dB increments from 30 to 70 dBA. The results show that L^n will be greater than 55 dBA within a range of approxi- mately 4,000 feet (over three-quarters of a mile) of the construc- tion areas. This will probably annoy people residing near con- struction sites. 10.5.5 Plant Operation Principal noise sources for a typical coal-fired power plant will include the cooling towers, pulverizer, bulldozers on the coal pile, coal car shakers, and railroad car switching. Repre- sentative data for these pieces of equipment are listed in Table 10-16. The effect of the power block and the coal pile in weaken- ing the noise levels were included in these predictions. The predicted radiated noise levels; for plant operation are shown in Figure 10-5. L^n levels of 55 dBA will extend to about one mile from the plant. Thus, some community annoyance should be expected out to this distance. L^n levels of 45 dBA will extend to about 1.7 miles from the plant. The plant noise will be no- ticeable to about this range. 856 ------- 0) PM 0) O -p CO •H Q O O o ------- TABLE 10-16: REPRESENTATIVE SOUND LEVEL FOR COAL- FIRED POWER PLANT NOISE SOURCES EQUIPMENT Cooling Towers3 Pulverizer Bulldozers13 (270 horsepower) Car Switching0 (50% duty) Coal Car Shakers SOUND LEVEL PER UNIT (dBA/item) 104 104 80 82 101 dBA = decibels A-weighted aTracor, Inc. Guidelines on Noise. Washington, D.C.: American Petroleum Institute, 1973. bBolt, Beranek, and Newman. Noise from Construction Equipment and Operations, Building Equipment, and Home Appliances. Cambridge, Mass.: Bolt, Beranek, and Newman, 1971. cSwing, Jack W., and Donald B. Pies. Assessment of Noise Environments Around Railroad Operations, Report No. WCR 73-5.El Segundo, Calif.: Wyle Laboratories, 1973. 10.6 AESTHETIC IMPACTS 10.6.1 Introduction Aesthetic impacts will depend on the personal experiences, priorities, and values that different people place on visual qualities. Aesthetic characteristics are one aspect of quality- of-life considerations, along with social and economic aspects of life such as satisfaction with personal income, housing, and em- ployment. Since these kinds of concerns are measured most accu- rately through personal responses, this analysis of aesthetic impacts is intended only to identify potential areas of concern associated with western energy resource development. Our catego- ries of aesthetic impacts include land, air, noise, water, biota, and man-made objects (Table 10-17); the overall aesthetic quality of an area probably depends on all these factors. 10.6.2 Land Strip mining will be the source of many of the aesthetic land impacts in the West. The texture of overburden piles is usually coarse but not distinctive, and uniform from pile to pile, 858 ------- -p 0) 0) c •H 0) u c (0 -p 0) o o o CN O o o oo o o o o - I o o o O o o 00 o o o (N Isopleth Attenuating Barriers -12000 -8000 -4000 -0 4000 8000 12000 Distance in Feet FIGURE 10-5 RADIATED NOISE FOR TYPICAL POWER PLANT OPERATION 859 ------- TABLE 10-17: CATEGORIES OF AESTHETIC IMPACTS CATEGORY CONTRIBUTING FACTORS Land Air Noise Water Biota Man-made Objects Surface Texture and Color Relief and Topographic Character Odor Visibility Background Intermittent Clarity and Rate of Movemnet Shoreline Appearance Odor and Floating Material Domestic Animals, Kind and Quantity Wild Animals Diversity and Density of Vegetation Unique Species Density Skyline Alteration Conspicuousness Overall Impression Isolation Unique Composition Source: Adapted from Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus Laboratories. Final Environmental Evalu- ation System for Water Resource Planing, Contract No. 14-06-D-7182. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Depart- ment of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, 1972, pp. 59-86; Brossman, Martin W. Quality of Life Indicators; A Review of State-of-the-Art and" Guidelines Derived to Assist in Developing~Environ- mental Indicators.Springfield, Va.:National Technical Information Service, 1972; Water Resources Research Center of the Thirteen Western States, Technical Committee. Water Resources Planning, Social Goals and Indicators: Methodological Devel- opment and Empirical Test. Logan, Utah: Utah University, Utah Water Research Laboratory, 1974. 860 ------- The color varies depending on the location but is most often a uniform gray, a color that quite often contrasts with the sur- rounding surface. Long ridges without variation are the major relief and topographic characteristics of overburden spoils. The aesthetic impact of this modified topography is often dependent on the scenic properties of a region. In the southwest, for example, limited vegetation of "badlands" areas and their heterogenous topography reduce the extent and contrast of strip- mine spoils. In the Rocky Mountain areas, the impact of modified topography may be significant, but in many instances this can only be viewed from a restricted vantage point. In the Northern Great Plains, mine spoils contrast with the surrounding topography, however, restoration to grasslands or crops occurs more rapidly than in other areas. Requirements for reclamation of strip-mined land include provisions that land be returned to its original grade. In some cases, aesthetics might be improved by regrading efforts that add distinctive new contours to the land or allow the development of vegetation which was not natural to the area before mining. For additional discussion of reclamation impacts see Chapter 11. 10.6.3 Air Aesthetic impacts related to air quality are likely no matter where conversion facilities are located in the West. Long-range visibility as a physical air impact has been discussed in Chapter 11.2. The long-range visibility and clean air now enjoyed in most areas of the western states is a valued resource, and the deterio- ration of visibility is often considered a significant aesthetic impact.1 A single visible plume in an otherwise clear sky can result in a negative response from some people. Odors are frequently associated with air pollutants, such as S02 and NOX. However, there are other causes of odors such as trace pollutants and various HC's. Such odors can also detract from aesthetic quality. 10.6.4 Noise Noise impacts are discussed in Section 10.5. Since noise criteria have been set for occupational hazards but not for public nuisance, most authors place noise in the overall category of aes- thetic impacts. Noises which will not damage hearing can still be aesthetically displeasing and negatively affect quality of life. As indicated in Chapter 11.6 (transportation), people living near busy rail lines in the West will be increasingly impacted by noise. ^osephy, Alvin M. "Kaiparowits: The Ultimate Obscenity." Audubon, Vol. 78 (Spring 1976), pp. 64-90. 861 ------- 10.6.5 Water The clarity and rate of movement of water are valued aesthetic qualities. Water consumption for energy development will probably increase turbidity and lower flow rates, thereby reducing the tur- bulence of water movement in many streams. Some ecological impacts of this have been noted as secondary impacts in the local scenar- ios (Chapters 4-9). Shoreline appearance can be affected by increased nutrient levels in streams which generate shoreline algae, by reduced stream flows or lake levels which expose previously submerged areas, or by increased turbidity which may settle out to change the color of shore areas. Odors in streams can be caused by increased biolog- ical or chemical oxygen demand, excess chlorine or fluorine, and/ or various trace materials and pollutants. Odors can be perceived as aesthetically unpleasant even if levels are well within water quality standards. Floating material is almost always considered to be aesthetically displeasing. Garbage, beverage cans, sewage, and oil slicks are usually associated with increased local popu- lations . 10.6.6 Biota Wild or domestic animals may be perceived favorably and con- sidered to be an aesthetic asset to an area. A negative impact of energy facilities will occur when a development reduces the number of animals either due to disturbance to grazing land or the pres- ence of an increased human population. A valued feature of most public parks is the diversity and well-being of both vegetation and wildlife. Increased vegetation is almost always a welcome aesthetic addition in and near urban areas. Reclamation efforts at strip mines near towns are critical in this regard. The presence of unique species of plants or animals is a valued aesthetic benefit and reductions in endangered species due to energy development are possible (see Chapter 11). 10.6.7 Man-Made Objects The density of buildings or other man-made objects can be aesthetically important, and a vast expanse of buildings, railroad cars, drill holes, or other evidence of human presence is aesthe- tically objectionable to many people. Skyline alteration can be an important impact because of the long distance from which a structure on the skyline can be observed. Tall smokestacks and transmission lines are often the most objectionable of these fea- tures, especially in the rural West where man-made features are relatively few. However, even right-of-way clearings for buried pipelines may produce an objectionable skyline alteration. 862 ------- Conspicuousness is related to skyline alteration, but a fa- cility may be conspicuous without altering the skyline. Color, architectural design, and location relative to tall natural fea- tures are important. Facilities designed to conform to the sur- roundings wherever possible are often aesthetic benefits rather than costs. In contrast, some individuals also perceive man-made struc- tures or engineering activities as aesthetically pleasing. For example, the sweeping lines of large cooling towers or tall stacks can be viewed as a positive contribution to an apparently barren or desolate landscape. The range of these individual perceptions highlights the difficulty in generalizing about the aesthetic costs and benefits of energy resource development. 10.7 PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACTS 10.7.1 Introduction As indicated in Sections 10.2, 10.3, and 10.4, energy devel- opment exposes people to pollutants such as sulfur oxides, partic- ulates, trace elements, radioactive substances, and organic chem- icals such as HC. Each of these can adversely affect public health. Some of these chemicals are released in very large quan- tities, while others are emitted in small amounts. In addition, some of these substances may change in the environment to form compounds with different chemical properties (e.g., sulfates, nitrates, photochemical oxidants). The impact of many of these substances on humans is still un- certain; however, a number of studies indicate that public health may be endangered by: (1) inhalation of substances emitted from energy facilities; (2) ingestion of substances from water contam- inated either directly by effluents or by leaching from waste dis- posal areas; or (3) ingestion of animal or plant foods, such as milk, that have picked up hazardous substances (e.g., arsenic) re- leased by energy conversion processes. Also, energy development activities may cause increased accident rates for the general public. 1 Health effects can be as clear-cut as increased mortality (death) from a train accident or as difficult to ascertain as small increases in birth defects or in the incidence of cancer. The most pervasive uncertainty is that associated with dose- response relationships where understanding is incomplete at best. Human responses to pollutant doses are influenced by a host of factors, such as: the individual's age and general health, the presence or absence of other pollutants, general environmental JFor a description of accidents associated with transporta- tion facilities, see Chapter 11. 863 ------- conditions, and the constancy or variation of the pollutant con- centration. The level of ill health that is serious varies accord- ing to age, sex, race, and occupation. For example, respiratory irritation caused by elevated SO2 levels may be a minor problem to teenagers but a major concern to the elderly.1 Types of re- sponses are identified and summarized in Table 10-18. Because dose-response relationships, are uncertain, there is little agreement on defining appropriate; "zero-effect" exposure levels for the pollutants produced by energy facilities. Some pollutants can be tolerated without adverse effects as long as exposure is below some threshold level; other pollutants, however, will cause adverse effects at any level of exposure (no threshold). Unless these threshold determinations can be made, the only way to avoid health impacts is to avoid exposure entirely, which is usually expensive and often unattainable;. Determination of "zero- effect" exposure levels for human beings may, in fact, be impos- sible because of limitations in experimental research (e.g., clinical investigation requires the deliberate exposure of human subjects to health hazards). Consequently, determination of dose- response is generally limited to extrapolations from toxicological studies of animals or historical studies of human events. Thus, adverse health effects from western energy development are diffi- cult to determine at the current time. This section identifies adverse health effects to the general population outside the "fence-line" of energy facilities,2 addres- sing several categories of death and illness (Tajale 10-18) . Data on the pollutants from energy facilities that could cause health impacts are identified and discussed by disease category. 10.7.2 Residuals from Energy Development Table 10-19 lists some of the residuals introduced by energy development and the type of health impact which can be associated with each. Quantities of most of these pollutants emitted by en- ergy facilities were given in Chapters 4-9 and summarized in Chap- ter 3. Selected data on the relationship of these pollutants to disease are described for three specific disease categories: re- spiratory disease, cancer, and systemic illnesses. Argonne National Laboratory, Energy and Environmental Sys- tems Division, Environmental Impact Studies Division, and Biologi- cal and Medical Research Division. A Preliminary Assessment of the Health and Environmental Effects of Coal Utilization in the Midwest, Vol. I: Energy Scenarios, Technology Characterizations, Air and Water Resource Impacts, and Health Effects, Draft. Argonne, 111.: Argonne National Laboratory, 1977, pp. 169-80. 2Occupational health and safety problems (inside the fence- line) are discussed in Section 10.8. 864 ------- TABLE 10-18: SELECTED TYPES OF HEALTH RESPONSES' TYPE Irritation Coirritant effect Aggravation of pre- existing conditions Direct toxicity Physical synergisms or blocking Carcinogenesis (Cancer) Cocarcinogenic effects Birth defect or Teratogenesis Mutagenesis Protective effects DESCRIPTION Organs or tissues are inflamed as a reaction against foreign materials. Widespread inflamation may increase susceptibility to disease. Stimulation or irritation when exposures with other substances result in irritation. For example, simultaneous exposure to both ozone and oxides of nitrogen can result in additive or multiplicative responses. Exposure to some pollutants may have acute or fatal results if a preexisting heart or lung ailment exists . Cellular damage from agents that disrupt cell function. Key enzymes may be inactivated resulting in local or widespread loss of organ or tissue function. Loss of ciliary activity, for example, or thickening of tissues that interferes with removal of foreign materials . Pollutants or metabolic byproducts may stimulate uncontrolled growth of tissue that results from an accumulation of genetic mutations, chromosome aberration, biochemical changes or viral infection. A factor that facilitates the induction of cancer by another substance, (e.g., exposure to sulfur dioxide increases cancer rate from Benzapyrene aerosol) . Abnormal birth or stillbirth resulting from genetic, maternal, or other causes. Chromosome or gene damage that may be expressed as cancer or birth defects or disease. Some exposures result in the development of cross tolerances. For example prior exposure to ozone reduces the irritant effect of a subsequent exposure to other oxidants. aModified from Argonne National Laboratory, Energy and Environmental Systems Division, Environmental Impact Studies Division, and Biological and Medical Research Division. A Preliminary Assessment of the Health and Environmental Effects of Coal Utilization in the Midwest, Vol. I:Energy Scenarios, Technology Characterizations, Air and Water Resource Impacts, and Health Effects, Draft. Argonne, 111.: Argonne National Laboratory, 1977, pp. 169-80. 865 ------- TABLE 10-19: SELECTED RESIDUALS FROM ENERGY DEVELOPMENT AND TYPES OF HEALTH EFFECTS RESIDUAL TYPE OF EFFECT Air Sulfur dioxide (and sulfates) Fine particulates Hydrocarbons Trace elements Radioactive particles Water Hydrocarbons Trace elements Bacteria (sewage) Radioactive particles Land and Transportation Trains Trucks Extra-high voltage lines Pipelines Construction and Operation Employees Respiratory disorders Respiratory disorders Cancer Circulatory and respiratory disorders Cancer Cancer Circulatory and systemic disorders Infectious disease Cancer Accident (collisions) Accident (collisions) Nervous system disorders Accidents (explosion and fire) Accidents and disease transmission 866 ------- 10.7.3 Respiratory Problems Accelerated fossil fuel utilization results in increased emissions of SO2, NOX, particulates, and many other air pollu- tants. As shown in Table 10-20, human illness and death from respiratory diseases have been related to these air pollutants. Possible effects include increases in new cases and/or aggrava- tion of existing cases of bronchitis, emphysema, pneumonia, and asthma. There could also be other respiratory and cardiovascular symptoms, together with secondary effects on other parts of the body (such as the heart) that would be strained because of cough- ing or breathing difficulties. These effects are especially likely during prolonged periods of atmospheric inversion when ambient concentrations peak. Although these effects have been studied intensively, dose- response relationships are still ambiguous. Most research has concentrated on particulates and S02 (with the 1952 air pollution disaster in London being a major source of data). Adverse health effects appear to result from a complex of emitted pollutants rather than from any single pollutant.1 Research also indiates that the risk of health impacts is especially high for children, asthmatics, the elderly, and individuals who already suffer from cardio-respiratory disease.2 For example, epidemiological studies in Great Britain have demonstrated a relationship between partic- ulate and S02 pollution and the incidence of bronchitis, chronic cough, and reduced lung function in children. While S02 is asso- ciated with lower respiratory tract bacterial illness, NOX seems to be associated with increased susceptibility to upper respira- tory tract viral infections, especially in children. There is considerable evidence that symptoms of emphysema and other chronic pulmonary diseases are worsened by high short-term levels of air pollution.3 Effects of specific pollutants are discussed below. A. Sulfur Dioxide Present S02 levels are low (2 to 20 yg/m3) in most rural lo- cations where energy development will occur. Installation of energy facilities, particularly power plants, will contribute to higher SOz levels as summarized in Chapters 3 and 11. If scrub- bers are used, the increase in SO2 caused by energy facilities Goldstein, B.D. Health Effects of Gas-Aerosol Complex, Report to the Special Committee on Health and Biological Effects of Increased Coal Utilization. New York, N.Y.: New York University Medical Center, 1977, p. 1. 2Ibid., p. 14. 3 Ibid., p. 1. 867 ------- TABLE 10-20: AIR POLLUTANTS AND ASSOCIATED RESPIRATORY HEALTH EFFECTS3 MAJOR POLLUTANTS PRINCIPAL RESPIRATORY EFFECT OF INHALATION (known or suspected) Total Suspended Particulates Oxides of Sulfur Photochemical Oxidants Oxides of Nitrogen Arsenic Barium Beryllium Chromium Fluorides Manganese Nickel Carbonyl Phenols and Cresols Selenium Vanadium Directly toxic effects or aggravation of the effects of gaseous pollutants, especially SOx; aggravation of asthma or other respiratory or cardiorespiratory symptoms; increased cough and chest discomfort; increased mortality Aggravation of respiratory diseases, including asthma, chronic bronchitis, and emphysema; reduced lung function: irritation of respiratory tract; increased mortality Aggravation of respiratory and cardiovascular ill- ness, irritation of respiratory tract, impairment of cardiopulmonary function Aggravation of respiratory and cardiovascular ill- ness; increased respiratory inhibition; cause of pneumonia Bronchitis and other respiratory illnesses Nose and throat irritation Acute and chronic respiratory disorder from short term exposure Lesions of respiratory TIUCOUS membranes Irritation of respiratory tract and respiratory impairment Pneumonia in high doses Possible cause of asthma Corrosion of mucous membranes of nasal and respiratory tract Respiratory irritation Acute respiratory irritation SOX = oxides of sulfur aKash, Don E., et al. Impacts of Accelerated Coal Utilization, Report sub- mitted to the Office of Technology Assessment. Norman, Okla.: University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program, 1977, p. 8-1. Adapted from U.S., Council on Environmental Quality. Environmental Quality, Sixth Annual Report. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975. 868 ------- and urban activities will be below primary and secondary standards for all averaging times. One exception is western Colorado, where plume impaction on elevated terrain will cause primary standards to be violated.1 If scrubbers are not used, facilities in areas of relatively flat terrain could result in SO2 concentrations which exceed the ambient standards designed to protect human health. Even with 80 percent sulfur removal, a potential health prob- lem could result from exposure to sulfate. Whether this is a prob- lem depends on the conversion rates of S02 to sulfate. As discus- sed previously in this chapter, rate estimates vary from 1 to 20 percent conversion of S02 to sulfate per hour, although conversion rates for the facilities studied here appear to range from 1 to 3 percent.2 If conversion rates are 10 percent per hour, 24-hour ambient sulfate levels are as much as two times greater than those projected to produce increases in mortality according to EPA studies (Table 10-21).3 These data can be extended to compare the health risk of these levels of atmospheric sulfate against baselines of health disorders of average U.S. populations (Table 1-22).4 These data indicate that energy facilities emissions may cause an aggrava- tion of asthma, and heart and lung disease in the elderly. B. Oxidants Oxidants in the atmosphere are a product of the photochemical reactions of HC and N02 (among other compounds). The process is augmented in situations where pollutants accumulate by virtue of topographic and/or meteorological factors. Although oxidants could become a problem in the oil shale region (see Rifle scenario) due •"in western Colorado, values may exceed standards in some areas during conditions which do not favor dispersal. On a re- gional scale of development, additional areas of plume impaction may occur. 2U.S., Congress, House of Representatives, Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Environment and the At- mosphere. Review of Research Related to Sulfates in the Atmos- phere, Committee Print. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1976. 3U.S., Environmental Protection Agency. Position Paper on Regulation of Atmospheric Sulfates, EPA 450/2-75-077. Research Triangle Park, N.C.: National Environmental Research Center, 1975. ''Data on disease incidence in populations at risk within the eight state study area are not available. 869 ------- TABLE 10-21: LOCAL SCENARIO SULFATE CONCENTRATIONS AND THEIR HEALTH EFFECTS SCENARIO Kaiparowits/Escalante Nava j o/Farming ton Rifle Gillette Colstrip Beulah HEALTH EFFECTS b Aggravation of asthma Increased chronic bronchitis Increased acute respiratory disease PEAK SULFATE CONCENTRATION (micrograins per cubic meter) CONVERSION RATEa ONE PERCENT 2.2 0.8 1.5 .5 .9 1.1 TEN PERCENT 22 8 15 5 9 11 LEVELS PRODUCING HEATLH EFFECTS 6-10 14 10-25C Conversion rates vary for different technologies and are dependent on particle size and other factors. Rates for coal-fired power plants have been reported at 1-3 percent per hour, and rates for oil-fired power plants are as much as 20 percent per hour. U.S., Environmental Protection Agency. Position Paper on Regulation of Atmospheric Sulfates, EPA 450/2-75/007. Research Triangle Park, N.C.: National Environmental Research Center, 1975. CU.S., Council on Environmental Quality. Environmental Quality, Sixth Annual Report. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975. 870 ------- cfl A o w s w < w EH < PM J D 0} fa O M EH 2 H ffi EH (N CM I O W ^ PQ CO <<< ^4^ w Cfl ^3 w PQ u a H fn O H CJ M fe fn W H H D hJ hJ O PH ASSUMED BASELINE [-T") ja M iJ w C/5 , i i— i -i \|H P4 «J u P-I p ij o M CO u a! BJ P DISORDER WITHIN , h-4 r-PH HM C/i p^ ffi HM O pq < w fn TT HM r»1 py fyif pM r_ PH 'OPULATION AT RISK HH ^ CO M Pd H -, a rH •H ^O cfl • Q CN c o •H 4-1 cfl tH p cx o cx tH CO 4-1 o H >% 4-1 •H rH cfl 4J J-I 0 s frt g 60 3. O 1 — 1 J-I 0) cx 8^5 -3" i — i J-l O J-l U-4 O CO >-, g cfl --- T3 60 0) 3- OJ J-i C 0 O O g ne out of five of opulation at risk omplain of symptom ggravation on any iven day O CX O cfl 00 60 t> G G 0 J-i CO ca g oi -H cfl "O 4-J rH CO j-i cu o J-i cfl cfl cfl cu co c o> 43 OJ O f. CO -H CJ -H 4-1 IT) •H T3 Cfl v£> C rH O 60 3 C J-i G CX Cfl B~S 43 3 0 43 r- CJ rH CX 4J CN 4-1 60 0 C 3 C3 rH 0 G •H TJ -H 4-J C CO cfl 0) >, > CO tH CO 4-J CO Jj M J-i 0) CU 60 cfl CO T) 60 0) -H rH <3 43 13 0) CO g 60 3, O i— i J-i 01 cx B-S <± ro J-i O IH CO g 60 3. \O 1 43 4-1 CO cfl O in MH O 4-1 3 O 0) G O 0) 43 4-1 G •H cfl g £ 4-1 to < 4-1 O c o •H 4-J Cfl > cfl J-i 60 60 J-l o e % t3 J3 CJ CO 01 J4 CJ CO 4J 4-J Cfl G cfl B^S m to •H CO g 60 3. O r— 1 J-l CU cx s-s r^ r^ J-i O "4-1 CO g 60 3. rn i — i 0% of children LT> C CU J-l T3 .H •H 43 CJ iH iH < 1 CO J-i •H CX CO 01 (-1 M 01 is o rJ CO J-l cfl 0) >. rH CO M CU > O! to M 0) cx ^ C o OJ > cfl 0) CO cfl 01 CO •H T) >•> j-i O 4-1 M cfl 0) >^ G a) jj T3 rH •rl 43 CJ G •H H 0) 4-1 01 g CJ •H 4-1 3 a j-i 0) cx CO g cfl S-i 60 O J-i a •H g II V) g 60 3- O cfl CX g IH iH cfl 4-1 G 0) o J-i •H > G W •s G O •H CO •H > •H O CO g cu 4-1 to >-> CO tH CO 4-1 C 01 g 6 O J-l •H K» § w t) c CO >. 60 S-i 01 C w »v >, J-i O 4-1 CO >-i 0 rO cfl tJ iH cfl C 0 •H 4-J cfl a -i <3 cfl 14-4 O 4-1 C u g CO CO 01 to to 1 J-I CO G •H E •H rH CU J^ PH < • C o •H CO •H > •H Q 43 CJ J-l CO a» to 01 fyfl PH r™H cfl O •>-J •rl T3 01 S -O C cfl rH Cfl O •H 60 0 tH O •H ffl T3 C CO f\ C o •H CO •H > •H P to 01 •H -a 3 4-1 CO «S to 4-1 >« M J-I O) c w O O> U-4 IH W 43 4- H n 0) • 33 tH o TJ > c n #\ 4J to 0) h •c •r s 0) 43 4-1 C •r C O •r 4-> 03 N i~ f__ •r- 4J l"~^ Ct C CJ H C 0) g 3 o j-i •H > B w •a c cO 43 4-1 iH cfl OJ ffi 01 43 4-J CO 4-1 CJ Ct C h- 01 O J-l O CO a <& j-j 01 4-1 cfl s Td c Ct J- •r- i — i rs >, J-I O 4J Cfl ( , M o f. pLJ cfl hJ rH cfl G O •H 4-1 CO ^ 01 c c o 60 J-I < • • • !— 1 i-H 1— 1 r. 0) 3 ^ o 60 -4 < • 4J M-l Cfl -4 « 871 ------- to HC emissions, the photochemical process is so complex that predictions of levels or locations- where oxidants may be a health problem are not possible. C. Nitrogen Dioxide and Other Oxides of Nitrogen Two important forms of NOx are nitric oxide (NO) and N02. NO2 is more stable and is a lung irritant in snort-term exposures (4-6 hours) at levels as low as 0.5 ppm (1,000 yg/m3).1 Some studies have indicated diminished lung function and possible cancer-producing effects from NOX. Tables 10-23 and 10-24 show projected NOX concentrations in our scenarios and potential health effects at various concentrations.2 Acute effects are possible at N02 concentrations of 1,000 yg/m3 (Table 10-23) while respira- tory illness rates increase at 24-hour concentrations above about 150 yg/m3. Concentrations predicted to occur around urban areas as a result of energy development (Table 10-23) are below 100 yg/m3 except at Farmington and Gillette. However, peak 24-hour concentrations in the vicinity of power plants are all above 100 yg/m3 and range as high as 1,200 yg/m3 where plumes impact on rugged terrain. While these extremely high values due to plume impaction probably do not present a major health problem (since few people generally reside where the plumes impact), some in- crease in respiratory illness rates in the vicinity of power plants is possible. D. Particulates Although much of the research focus on health effects has been on total suspended particulates (TSP), it now appears that fine particulates may be a more important contributor to health Argonne National Laboratory, Energy and Environment Systems Division, Environmental Impact Studies Division, and Biological and Medical Research Division. A Preliminary Assessment of the Health and Environmental Effects of Coal Utilization in the Mid- west, Vol. I: Energy Scenarios, Technology Characterizations, Air and Water Resource Impacts and Health Effects, Draft. Argonne, 111.: Argonne National Laboratory, 1977, p. 171. 2See Chapman, R.S., et al. "Chronic Respiratory Disease." Archives of Environmental Health, Vol. 27 (September 1973) , pp. 138-42; U.S., Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Public Health Service, National Air Pollution Control Administration. Chattanooga, Tennessee-Rossville, Georgia Interstate Air Quality Study, 1967-68, Publication No. APTD-0533. Durham, N.C.: National Air Pollution Control Administration, n.d.; and Shy, C.M., et al. "The Chattanooga School Children Study: Effects of Community Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide; Incidence of Acute Respiratory Illness." Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, Vol. 20 (September 1970), pp. 582-88. 872 ------- TABLE 10-23: PEAK NITROGEN DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION FOR SCENARIO LOCATIONS (24-hour average measured in micrograms per cubic meter) LOCATION Kaiparowits Escalante Farmington Rifle (Grand Valley) Gillette Colstrip Beulaha SOURCE URBAN (1990) 88 - 163 57 140 54 42 POWER PLANT 130 - 220 760 - 1,260 125 - 210 380 - 630 115 - 190 120 - 200 170 - 280 Acute Biological Effects 1,000 (4-6 hours) Urban value is for 1995, not 1990. impacts.1 Particulate scrubbers can remove approximately 99 per- cent (by weight) of the particulates in power plant emissions; however, this efficiency varies as a function of particle size. Fine particulates are not trapped as efficiently as larger partic- ulates by current particulate removal systems. These fine partic- ulates may pose serious health hazards because they can absorb sulfates, heavy metals, and nitrogen compounds and carry them into respiratory systems.2 While larger particulates also possess this property, smaller particulates are especially amenable to absorption of toxic materials, including trace metals.3 In com- bination with gaseous air pollutants, such as S02 , particulates particulates are those less than 3 microns in size. 2Electric Power Research Institute. "Coordinating the Attack on Particulates." EPRI Journal, Vol. 2 (September 1977), pp. 16-18. 3Glass, Norman R. , ed. "Environmental Effects of Increased Coal Utilization: Ecological Effects of Gaseous Emissions from Coal Combustion." Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protec tion Agency, Office of Research and Development, Office of Health and Ecological Effects, November 4, 1977. 873 ------- TABLE 10-24: AVERAGE BIWEEKLY RESPIRATORY ILLNESS RATES PER 1,000 FAMILIES ACCORDING TO EXPOSURE TO NITROGEN DIOXIDE N02 EXPOSURE LEVEL (Average 2 4 -hoar) PARTS PER MILLION 0.109 0.078 0.062 0.043 MICROGRAMS PER CUBIC METER 200 150 117 90 ILLNESS RATE FOR ALL FAMILY MEMBERS 17.7 17.5 16.3 15.0 N02 = nitrogen dioxide aModified from Braustein, H.S., E.D. Copenhaver, and H.A. Pfuderer. Environmental, Health and Control Aspects of Coal Conversion: An Information Overview. Oak Ridge, Tenn.: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1977, Vol. 2, p. 10-79; and Shy, C.M., et al. "The Chattanooga School Children Study: Effects of Com- munity Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide; Incidence of Acute Respira- tory Illness." Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, Vol. 20 (September 1970), pp. 582-88. may worsen the toxic effects.1 Furthermore, the smaller size of fine particulates allows them to be inhaled deeper into the lungs (Figure 10-6). There is a significant natural background level of airborne particulates in all areas, especially in arid environments. Very wide variations occur; the range is 1-600 ug/m3 or more and is a function of the arid conditions and occasional dust storms. Thus, the 24-hour federal primary standard of 260 yg/m3 is probably exceeded frequently throughout a year. 1Argonne National Laboratory, Energy and Environmental Sys- tems Division, Environmental Impact Studies Division, and Biological and Medical Research Division. A Preliminary Assessment of the Health and Environmental Effects of Coal Utilization in the Mid- west, Vol. I: Energy Scenarios, Technology Characterizations, Air and Water Resource Impacts and Health Effects, Draft. Argonne, 111.: Argonne National Laboratory, 1977. 874 ------- 0) 4-> •H CO o D, 0) O O (0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 - n T\| IITTJ \ r 11 ii Nasopharyngeal Nasopharyngeal I i i 1 1 1 1 Tracheo- Bronchial I i i lilill 10 -2 10 10- 10' FIGURE 10-6: -1 Median Diameter y FRACTION INHALED PARTICLES DEPOSITED IN THE THREE RESPIRATORY TRACT COMPARTMENTS AS A FUNCTION OF MASS MEDIAN DIAMETER Source: Braumstein, H.M., E.D. Coperhaven and H.A. Pfudever. Environmental, Health and Control Aspects of Coal Conversion: An Information Overview. Vol. 2~, p^ 10-24. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, April 1977. 875 ------- Over the six scenarios, energy facilities will contribute 18-152 ug/m3 to ambient air particulate loading, and urban expan- sion will contribute about 30-100 yg/m3. Because ambient concen- trations periodically exceed standards, emissions from facilities and urban expansion may aggravate health problems. The particles emitted from energy facilities will be small (half of the parti- cles, by weight, have a diameter below 1-3 microns) and will re- main suspended in the atmosphere over long distances (hundreds of miles). 10.7.4 Cancer The pollutants of primary concern as to the incidence of cancer from increased combustion or conversion of fossil are HC and radioactivity. HC compounds such as benzo(a)pyrene, a poly- nuclear aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH), as well as air and waterborne radioactive elements are known to cause cancer in experimental animals and are considered responsible for certain kinds of can- cer in people. Although the clearest danger of such impacts is in connection with occupational health (discussed in Section 10.8), there are some risks to public health as well. Some car- cinogenic substances and their effects are summarized in Table 10-25. HC and radioactive emissions and effects are discussed in more detail. A. Hydrocarbons Fossil fuel combustion or conversion (e.g., synthetic fuel processes) create HC compounds that do not exist naturally. For instance, the pyrolysis of organic materials often leads to car- cinogenic tars, including condensed PAH, due to incomplete com- bustion.1 Generally, the hotter the temperature at which fuels are carbonized, the greater the production of carcinogenic agents. Some HC are carcinogenic on their own. Others are cocarcinogenic: that is, in combination with a "promoter," they change from being inactive to being carcinogenic. For example, either S02 or par- ticulates when in combination with benzo(a)pyrene have been shown to be associated with lung tumor formation.2 Still other HC appear to be anticarcinogenic, at least under certain condi- tions. One research conclusion to date is that the combination xKennaway, E.G. "Experiments on Cancer-Producing Substances." British Medical Journal, Vol. 2 (1925), pp. 1-4, as cited in Falk, Hans L. Health Effects of Coal Mining and Combustion, No. 7: Carcinogens and Cofactors. Oak Ridge, Tenn.: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Information Center Complex, Environmental Reponse Center, 1977, p. 27. 2Much of this research has been conducted on laboratory ani- mals and the effects on humans are less certain. 876 ------- TABLE 10-25: CARCINOGENS AND THEIR EFFECTS SUBSTANCE PRINCIPAL CARCINOGENIC EFFECT OF INHALATION, INGESTION, AND CONTACT Arsenic Benzene Beryllium Cadmium Chromium Hydrocarbons Lead Nickel Nickel Carbonyl Phenols and Cresols Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Some Radioactive Substances (Compositions vary with different types of coal) Zinc Chloride Skin cancer Suspected cause of leukemia Suspected cause of bone and lung cancer Possible relation to prostate cancer Suspected cause of lung cancer Suspected contribution to cancer Suspected occupational carcinogen Occupational cancer incidence Cause of lung cancer Occupational carcinogen (skin) Carcinogen Linkage with a few certain types of cancer Possible carcinogen Source: U.S., Council on Environmental Quality. Environmental Quality, Sixth Annual Report. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975; U.S., Council on Environmental Quality. Environmental Quality, Seventh Annual Report. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1976. 877 ------- of cigarette smoking and urban air pollution is clearly associated with a high incidence of lung cancer.1 Investigators in Britain have also found a relationship between air pollution and stomach cancer,2 and the same effect has been observed in the U.S.3 One study estimated that a 1,000 MWe coal-fired plant, located in an area where a population of 1.5 million lived within an 80 kilometer radius, would result in 1-6 deaths a year due to PAH emissions.4 Measurements of HC are not available in most rural areas in- cluded in these scenarios but high background HC levels (130 yg/m3) have been measured in the oil shale area of northwestern Colorado. Sources of HC include vegetation, evaporation from subsurface petroleum deposits,5 and present urban/industrial activity. How- ever, these naturally occurring HC have low PAH content. In many urban areas the current federal 3-hour ambient air quality standard for HC is already exceeded largely due to auto- motive emissions. Data from our site-specific analyses (sum- marized in Section 3.2) indicate that the HC standard will be violated as a result of urban expansion induced by energy devel- opment at most such sites in the West. In addition to cars, the major sources of HC are fugitive losses from synthetic fuels plants and fuel storage facilities. Power plant operations are Hans L. Health Effects of Coal Mining and Combustion, No. 7: Carcinogens and Cofactors. Oak Ridge, Tenn.: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Information Center Complex, Environmental Response Center, 1977. 2 Ibid.; Goldstein, B.D. Health Effects of Gas-Aerosol Com- plex, Report to the Special Committee on Health and Biological Effects of Increased Coal Utilization. New York, N.Y.: New York University Medical Center, 1977, p. 1. 3Falk. Health Effects of Coal Mining, No.7. 4Argonne National Laboratory. An Assessment of the Health and Environmental Impacts of Fluidized Bed Combustion of Coal Applied to Electric Utility Systems, Draft. Argonne, 111.: Argonne National Laboratory, 1977, as cited in Baser, M.E., and S.C. Morris. Assessment of the Potential Role of Trace Metal Health Effects in Limiting the Use of Coal Fired Electric Power, informal report. Upton, N.Y.: Brookhaven National Laboratory, National Center for Analysis of Energy Systems, Biomedical and Environmental Assessment Division, 1977, p. 11; and Lundy, R., as cited in Ibid. 5See Section 10.8 for a description of cancer related to crude oil extraction and refining. 878 ------- generally a minor contributor. These new sources of PAH compounds will be introduced into areas that have been relatively free of such contamination. Although stack gas cleaning systems remove most of the PAH, removal may only imply transferral to sludge ma- terials. These solid wastes and others from new coal conversion technologies may pose new health dangers since carcinogenic com- pounds could escape from the solid waste disposal areas and enter water supply systems. Very little is known about the potential seriousness of water contamination. B. Radioactive Materials Exposure to radiation is possible from coal, uranium, and oil shale resource systems. Very little is known about the fate of radioactive materials from oil shale processing and it is not considered further here. Current information on exposure to radioactive materials from coal and uranium facilities is dis- cussed below. (1) Coal Facilities Radioactivity in coal is highly variable, as shown in Table 10-26. Reported values for Radium 226 (Ra-226), a major source of this radioactivity, generally range from 1 to 4 picocuries1 per gram (pCi/g) of coal in the U.S.2 When coal is burned, most of the radium remains with the ash and is therefore concentrated. Ra-226 concentrations have been reported in various coal ashes, ranging from 2.1 to 5.0 pCi/g with a mean of 3.8 pCi/g;3 other investigators have reported up to 8.0 pCi/g. This may be com- pared with a typical value of 1.0 pCi/g for ordinary soils. Depending on the disposition of the ash retained by the col- lectors, opportunities exist for radioactivity to enter the en- vironment. If the ash is simply accumulated in piles, radio- active material may be resuspended with dust or leached from the piles to local surface waters. Radon-222 (Rn-222) (a product of Picocuries, a standard measurement of radioactivity, indi- cate the disintegration of 0.037 nuclei per second. 2Jaworowski, A., et al. "Artificial Sources of Natural Radionuclides in the Environment," in Adams, J., W.M. Lowder, and T.F. Gesell, eds. Natural Radiation Environment, CONF 720805-P2. Washington, B.C.: U.S., Energy Reserach and Development Adminis- tration, 1972, pp. 809-18. 3Eisenbud, M., and H.G. Petrow. "Radioactivity in the Atmo- spheric Effluents of Power Plants That Use Fossil Fuels." Science, Vol. 144 (April 17, 1964), pp. 288-89. 879 ------- TABLE 10-26: RADIOACTIVITY IN SELECTED COALSa (picocuries per gram) COAL SAMPLE LOCATION Western U.S. Utah Wyoming Montana Other U.S. Widow's Creek Appalachian Bartsville Alabama Tennessee Valley Authority Colbert Foreign Japan Australia Poland Ra-226 1.3 2.9b 1.6 3.8 2.3 2.3 4.25 3.1 7.98 2.0b Ra-228 0.8 1.3 0.8 2.7 2.4 3.1 2.2 2.85 6.9 1.5 Th-220 1.0 1.6 0.8 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.85 1.6 1.6 Th-232 — 0.8 2.7 3.1 - 2.85 6.9 - Ra = radium Th = thorium - = unknown aEisenbud, M., and H.G. Petrow. "Radioactivity in the Atmospheric Effluents of Power Plants That Use Fossil Fuels." Science, Vol. 144 (April 17, 1964), pp. 288-89; Martin, J.E., E.D. Harward, and D.T. Oakley. "Radiation Doses from Fossil Fuel and Nuclear Power Plants," in International Atomic Energy Agency Symposium, New York, 1970, Report SM-146/19. Vienna, Austria: International Atomic Energy Agency, 1971, pp. 107-25; Jaworowski, A., et al. "Artificial Sources of Natural Radionuclides in the Environment," in Adams, J., W.M. Lowder, and T.F. Gesell, eds. Natural Radiation Environment, CONF 172805-P2. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Energy Research and Develop- ment Administration, 1972, pp. 809-18; Bedrosian, P.H., D.G. Easterly, and S.L. Cummings. Radiological Survey Around Power Plants Using Fossil Fuel, Report #EERL 71-3. Washington, D.C.: UTS., Environmental Protection Agency, 1971. ^Assuming 15 percent ash content. 880 ------- the radioactive decay of thorium and radium) emanates as a gas from these piles.1 Concentrations of radioactivity in the air due to coal com- bustion may be estimated by multiplying the radioactivity in the fly ash by the airborne concentration of the fly ash. For example, for the Kaiparowits scenario, Table 10-27 gives airborne radio- activity concentrations in three towns for the years 1990 and 2000. Lung doses can be calculated2 from these and are given in Table 10-28 for the seven most important radioisotopes found in coal. Several studies carried out at higher dose rates than these found a risk rate of 1.2 cases of lung cancer per year per million exposed persons at one rem3 exposures.1* For the doses calculated in Table 10-28, this translates into an individual risk of one chance in 30 billion of contracting cancer in any one year. Thus, cancer risks due to airborne radioactivity from coal combustion are negligible. (2) Uranium Mining and Milling One serious radioactivity problem in uranium development is tailing piles from uranium milling operations that contain several thousand times as much radium as ordinary soils. According to 1Martin, J.E. "Comparative Population Radiation Dose Com- mitments of Nuclear and Fossil Fuel Electric Power Cycles," in Proceedings of the Eighth Midyear Topical Symposium of the Health Physics Society: Population Exposure, CONF-741018. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Atomic Energy Commission, 1974. 2 International Commission on Radiological Protection. Rec- ommendation of the International Commission on Radiological Pro- tection on Permissible Dose for Internal Radiation, Report No. 2. New York, N.Y.: Pergamon, 1959. 3A rem is a unit of radiation received by an organism (as particles or rays) proportional to the amount of potential bio- logical damage. Natural background dosage levels are approxi- mately 0.125 rem. 4Assuming an average exposure period of 30 years, this trans- lates to a risk of 36 lung cancer cases per million persons at one rem exposure. National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council, Advisory Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation. The Effects on Populations of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation. Washington, D.C.: National Academy of Sciences, 1972. 881 ------- TABLE 10-27: ESTIMATED ANNUAL AVERAGE AIRBORNE RADIOACTIVITY DUE TO COAL COMBUSTION IN 1990 AND 2000 TOWN Page Escalante Glen Canyon RADIOACTIVITY CONCENTRATION (picomicrocuries per cubic meter) a U238 0.6 0.6 0.6 U231t 0.6 0.6 0.6 Th230 0.6 0.6 0.6 Ra22(; 0.6 0.5 0.6 Th232 0.7 0.7 0.7 Ra228 0.5 0.5 0.5 Th228 0.4 0.4 0.4 U = uranium Th = thorium a'10~18 curie per cubic meter. Ra = radium TABLE 10-28: ESTIMATED INDIVIDUAL LUNG DOSES IN VICINITY OF PAGE, ESCALANTE, AND GLEN CANYON DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC RADIOACTIVITY PRODUCED BY COAL COMBUSTION ISOTOPE U238 u23" Th230 Ra226 Th232 Ra228 Th228 ESTIMATED DOSE (yrem per year) a 0.2 0.2 3.0 0.5 2.6 0.8 3.0 yrem = 10 rem U = uranium Th = thorium Ra = radium aNote that natural background radiation = 0.125 rem = 125,000 yrem. 882 ------- one study, exposures from uranium tailings piles pose a signifi- cant health risk at distances up to 1 kilometer.1 The uranium mill is also the energy facility releasing the greatest quantity of uranium particulates to the atmosphere and the source of the major uranium population exposure dose.2 Most of the atmospheric uranium releases are from the drying process.3 Although the amount of uranium radioactivity released is substan- tially lower than that of radon, the dose of radioactivity from uranium which actually reaches human tissues is over two orders of magnitude higher;1* this results in the relatively high popu- lation exposure doses due to uranium.5 Estimates of the radiation doses to individuals through the air pathway in the vicinity of a mill from routine plant emissions (not tailings piles) are shown in Table 10-29. They include esti- mated "collective" lung doses to the population in the vicinity. The average "collective" lung dose is determined by summing the individual radiation doses to individuals living throughout an 80 kilometer radius of the mill.6 Potential health effects to members of the general population in the vicinity of a model mill are estimated to be 0.0002 lung cancers per year of operation of 0.005 lung cancers for 30 years Jerry J., James M. Hardin, and Harry W. Galley. Potential Radiological Impact of Airborne Releases and Direct Gamma Radiation to Individuals Living Near Inactive Uranium Mill Tailings Piles. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protec- tion Agency, Office of Radiation Programs, 1976. 2Hong, Lee, et al. Potential Radioactive Pollutants Re- sulting from Expanded Energy Programs. Las Vegas, Nev.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, August 1977, p. 125. 3 Ibid. tRn-222 is a radioactive isotope produced from the decay of thorium and radium. It is emitted as a gas and rises in the atmosphere; thus, less of it is available to be respired by the population. Uranium is emitted as a dust from low level sources and remains at low levels, making it more available to be respired by humans. 5Hong, et al. Potential Radioactive Pollutants. 6U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Radiation Programs. Environmental Analysis of the Uranium Fuel Cycle, Part IV: Supplementary Analysis. Washington, D.C.: Environmental Protection Agency, July 1976, p. 23. 883 ------- O J EH W P W O D S P CO < O p ^ H EH »S^ i i H2 P H 2 U H H 0> EH W CO EH W CO 2 O H P 2 2 O O H H EH EH O H QH D O O W W CO O P g 2 " 'M , (J oo ^^ g « g r O 2 OJ FrH-K * y ^-* H 0 >, P 00 \ 2 g H 2 QJ H SH W ffi g OC_j «^* t^ J PJ 2 QJ H D SH P EH O g 2 < ffl — H 2 O cd ^-~ H W >, EH g U\ < O Pi -H H PS \|D U P tj O g i^ CO " — " * w Q \|_\| J U D 2 0 \| \| P a CN CN rH • i > CN O O CvJ fO m 1 1 1 O O O rH rH rH XXX CT> T CN n n CN o in in r~- rH rH rH o m o 00 rH rH rH 3< O n n ko CN CO CN CN in i CN g t tP SH O (0 SH -P fjj £ QJ C g O QJ •H rH -p QJ tO Qi •H 3 - CN 1C 1 r- C en o i — I ^ (0 rH 3 g h) 0 iH ^ U^J h- (0 U 03 PS C QJ •• Q) 03 4H > Cn O O H rt! T3 QJ -P C T3 0 H O C •H ro -H tO m PJ -P m u O - QJ O QJ -rH >i U U >i C U QJ CTlrH , > rH C to W C >- • rH u) tO • -p D C 0) g •• 2 QJ O U SH SH -H 3 > O C CO W •P SH O QJ SH N P^ 0 rH -P fO -P rH C (0 QJ 3 g U1 C QJ 0 •H QJ > g C 3 W 03 03 (0 »• 03 U >i tO a 5 f~] -P C fO O QJ -p Cn SH C QJ • •H -P T3 X! fO QJ 03 5 T3 tO 3 S OH -P 0 C 03 -H 03 QJ •H ' 03 -P 03 • (0 O >iin QJ c rH CN rH fO 1 Q) QJ C "vf PS SH rij CN cfl fO QJ SH rO 03 C O 03 SH Q) QJ j- o rH X in t m -P (0 •P 03 0 g 03 03 (0 03 rH rH •H • g QJ -p H -H QJ 03 T3 O rH g rH -H Q) g -P Q) XI SH -P 0 MH m 0 rH Q) g T3 Al O g ° oo C O C •H -H •P XI (0 -P rH -H 3 5 QJ O ^ QJ QJ 03 Q) O XI QJ EH X Ji QJ • t>i •\ g QJ SH g m CN rH 0 -P -P C QJ rH tO • r-l rj tJ1 QJ 03 •H -rs £ rj O SH (ji ^ U tO rH rO SH -P rO 5^ -P (0 r] -p QJ •P 0 2 o 884 ------- of operation.1 This calculation assumed that food consumed by individuals living near the mill is not produced locally so that exposure through food chains is not significant compared to lung exposures resulting from the direct inhalation of radioactive particulate matter. The radon exposure pathway was excluded. Significant radon exposure is also likely.2 In the vicinity of uranium mills and tailing piles in the Grants Mineral Belt area, New Mexico, radon levels are up to 10 times the accepted standards.3 Studies have indicated that a significant risk to health may result to workers and residents of the area from these doses to lung tissues. Apparent sources of this elevated readiation level have been particles and gases from mines and tailings piles.4 Currently the New Mexico state government is conducting a more detailed study to evaluate this health risk. Programs to minimize exposure to workers and the general public from uranium mill tailings are being conducted in Colorado.5 10.7.5 Systemic Illness Western energy development results in releases of small amounts of many toxic substances, including CO, cadmium, arsenic, JU.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Radiation Programs. Environmental Analysis of the Uranium Fuel Cycle, Part IV: Supplementary Analysis. Washington, D.C.: Environ- mental Protection Agency, July 1976, p. 26. 2Radon is the major residual radiation source in a uranium mill. See U.S., Atomic Energy Commission, Directorate of Licensing, Fuels and Materials. Environmental Survey of the Uranium Fuel Cycle, WASH-1248. Washington, D.C.: Atomic Energy Commission, 1972, p. S-19. 3New Mexico Environmental Improvement Agency. Personal Communication, November 1977. "Ibid. 5Mesa County Department of Health. "Fact Sheet: Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Program." Grand Junction, Colo.: Mesa County Department of Health, February 1973, p. 4; and Mesa County Department of Health. "Colorado's Involvement with Uranium Mill Tailings." Grand Junction, Colo.: Mesa County Department of Health, August 9, 1976, pp. 1-17; and Parmenter, Cindy. "U.S. May Foot 90% of Bill to Clean Up Uranium Tailings." Denver Post, July 22, 1978, p. 16. 885 ------- and vanadium. There is a risk that (in spite of careful con- trols) some of these substances will be inhaled or ingested by people, causing problems that vary in seriousness from irrita- tion to death. Many toxic substances appear to be threats mainly to occupational health, but public health could be affected as well. Although trace elements are present in very small quantities in fuels, they can be concentrated in waste streams, enter the ecological system and tend to accumulate in organisms. Potential emission rates for trace elements were discussed earlier in this chapter. The most immediate health concern is that dietary in- take levels for some trace metals are already approaching what have been defined by World Health Organization/Food and Agricul- ture Organization as tolerable limits. Cadmium intake, for exam- ple, is estimated at 75 percent of the limit, and increases of cadmium concentrations in soil are reflected widely in foodstuffs.l Mercury and lead are also close to tolerable levels. Thus, rela- tively small additions from individual energy facilities might lead to serious long-term health effects if a large number of new facilities are involved. The effects of selected trace elements are discussed below. A. Lead Lead is present as a natural substance in airborne particu- lates, coal, and oil shale, but it is essentially absent from petroleum. The average adult has a daily intake of 300 micrograms (pg) of lead, with about 90 percent via ingestion and 10 percent via respiration. However, absorption of lead via the gastro- intestinal system is only about 10 percent, whereas absorption via the pulmonary route is 30-50 percent.2 Thus, airborne lead could account for up to half the total lead absorbed.3 In view of the steadily increasing pollution of air and soils with lead from motor vehicle exhausts, accumulation and toxicity in exposed human beings may occur.1 Chronic lead poisoning requires months :Mahaffey, K.R., et al. "Heavy Metal Exposure from Foods." Environmental Health Perspective, Vol. 12 (1975), pp. 63-69. 2Schroeder, H.A., and I.H. Tipton. "The Human Body Burden of Lead." Archives of Environmental Health, Vol. 17 (December 1968), pp. 965-78. 3Goldsmith, J.R., and A.C. Hexter. "Respiratory Exposure to Lead: Epidemiological and Experimental Dose Response Relation- ships." Science, Vol. 158 (October 6, 1967), pp. 132-34. *Ibid. 886 ------- or years to develop. At present, there is concern that exposure to even very low levels of lead will produce subtle central ner- vous system pathologies, especially in children. Increased emissions of lead from energy facilities can be significant both in terms of direct exposure to humans and because airborne lead will settle to the ground and enter the food web. However, the lead emitted from energy facilities will probably be minute as compared to that resulting from the expanded popula- tion's use of motor vehicles burning leaded gasolines. As lead compounds are removed from gasoline, the overall risk would be reduced. B. Mercury Mercury occurs in coal, petroleum, and probably in oil shale. Depending on the combustion system and ancillary air pollution control devices, 10-90 percent of the contained mercury can be emitted to the atmosphere. This mercury emitted can be converted to the more toxic organic form by microorganisms, and then con- centrated in food webs. Exposure to elevated mercury levels in foods produces nervous system disorders and death.1 The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has established a 500 parts per billion (ppb) standard for mercury levels in food. The level of mercury emitted to the atmosphere by energy facilities is unlikely to constitute a hazard from direct expo- sure or ingestion. However, intrusion of mercury into the aqua- tic food web raises possibilities of contamination of fish used as human food. For example, in the Kaiparowits scenario (Chapter 4), mercury can reach Lake Powell from the facilities by direct fallout from emissions and by runoff. Mercury deposition from the hypothetical Kaiparowits power plant alone ranges from 16 to 480 pounds of mercury entering the lake each year, or 1-27 percent of the present estimated rate of addition from natural sources.2 Levels in some predatory fish in Lake Powell currently exceed the standard of 500 ppb, and energy facility emissions have been estimated to cause increases of 10-50 percent above this value, Pettyjohn, Wayne A. "Trace Elements and Health," in Petty- john, Wayne A., ed. Water Quality in a Stressed Environment: Readings in Environmental Hydrology. Minneapolis, Minn.: Bur- gess, 1972, pp. 245-246. 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Final Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed Kaiparowits Proj- ect, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976. 887 ------- depending on the number of plants, locations, and coal character- istics . 1 C. Cadmium Cadmium is found in coal and oil shale but is absent from petroleum. Cadmium is known to be highly toxic as particulates or fumes; it accumulates in the human kidney and liver, acts on the circulatory system,2 irritates the lung (producing emphysema),3 and at higher exposures causes damage to the excretory system.^ Some of these effects occur at atmospheric concentrations of 500-2,500 yg/m3 over as little as 3 days.5 Lower levels may be associated with high blood pressure or stomach and intestinal disorders. Between 4 and 41 percent of the cadmium in coal is emitted as flue gas in three power plants recently studied.6 Thus, because of potential emission of between 60 and 2,000 pounds/year7 (from a 3,000 megawatts [MW] power plant) and the possible role of cadmium in producing hypertension, a health hazard may exist from its accumulation in humans. D. Arsenic The toxicity of arsenic depends on its chemical form. Metal- lic arsenic is thought to be nontoxic, while arsine (AsH3, a ^tandiford, D.R., L.D. Potter, and D.E. Kidd. Mercury in the Lake Powell Ecosystem, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin No. 1. Los Angeles, Calif.: University of California, Institute of Geophysics nad Planetary Physics, 1973, p. 16. 2Schroeder, H.A. "Cadmium, Chromium, and Cardiovascular Dis- ease." Circulation, Vol. 35 (March 1967), pp. 570-82. 3Bouhoys, A., and J.M. Peters. "Control of Environmental Lung Disease." New England Journal of Medicine, Vol. 283 (Sep- tember 10, 1970), pp. 573-82. ^Piscator, M. , K.L. Beckmans, and. A.B. Tryckerier, eds. Proteninuria in Chronic Cadmium Poisoning. Stockholm, Sweden: n.p., 1966. 5Schroeder, H.A. Cadmium, Zinc, and Mercury, Air Quality Monograph No. 70-16. Washington, D.C.: American Petroleum In- stitute, n.d. 6Radian Corporation. Coal Fired Power Plant Trace Element Study, Vol. 1: A Three Station Comparison. Austin, Tex.: Ra- dian Corporation, 1975, p. 36. 7 Ibid., p. 31. 888 ------- colorless gas) is extremely toxic.1 Because arsenic is suspected of being a carcinogen, exposure from coal combustion or conver- sion facilities increases the possibility of cancer. Arsenic deposited in the aquatic environment may undergo microbiological transformation similar to what has been observed with mercury. E. Vanadium Vanadium is present in coal, petroleum, and oil shale. The production of residual petroleum fuels results in a concentration of the vanadium compounds which then are released during combus- tion. Vanadium has low toxicity in most forms, although there are some associations between airborne vanadium and respiratory dis- ease. Vanadium dioxide acts as an acid in aqueous solution and when inhaled contributes to respiratory irritation.2 Most cases of respiratory effects have resulted from exposures of 1-50 pg/m3 in dusty air.3 In 1967, the annual average concentration of air- borne vanadium in nonurban western locations was approximately 0.003 yg/m3 , " making the dose of 1-50 yg/m3 many thousand times greater than ambient concentrations. This element is potentially harmful because of its involvement in respiratory disease and bcause it is a "new" or introduced element in the local environ- ment. 10.7.6 Population-Related Health Problems Some of the greatest potential impacts on health are indi- rectly attributed to energy development because they result from rapid population growth.5 Population growth can cause impacts of two general types: (1) impacts dependent on public services, including inadequate water supplies, sewage treatment, solid waste management, and health care services; and (2) disease ^.S., Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public Health Service. Preliminary Air Pollution Survey of Arsenic and Its Compounds. Raleigh, N.C.: Public Health Service, 1969. 2Stokinger, H.E. "Vanadium," in Patty F.A., ed. Industrial Hygiene and Toxicology, Vol. 2. New York, N.Y.: Wiley Inter- science, 1963, pp. 1171-82. 3Lewis, C.E. "The Biological Actions of Vanadium, II." Archives of Industrial Health, Vol. 19 (1959) , p. 497. ^Athanassiadis, Y.C. Air Pollution Aspects of Vanadium and Its Compounds, National Air Pollution Control Administration. Bethesda, Md.: Litton Systems, Inc., 1969. 5Copley International Corporation. Health Impacts of Environ- mental Pollution in Energy-Development Impacted Communities, Ex- ecutive Summary for the Environmental Protection Agency. La Jolla, Calif.: Copley International, 1977, pp. 29-30. 889 ------- transmission and increases in accident rates associated with crowding.1 These two categories are closely linked; for example, improved public services can reduce accidents and adequate health services can minimize the incidence of disease. Increases in community size shown in Table 10-30 are a func- tion of employment in energy facilities and population multipliers for secondary services (see sections on social and economic im- pacts in Chapters 4-9). For some communities, existing facili- ties are adequate; in others, such as Farmington, sewage treat- ment is inadequate or, as in Gillette, water supplies are limited. When community environmental services become overloaded, con- tamination of the environment may occur. In Fruitland, New Mexico, for example, population growth associated with two large power plants and surface coal mines has resulted in a proliferation of mobile homes and septic tanks that leak sewage.2 In many rural locations, inadequate water supply affects personal hygiene which in turn is conducive to the transfer of pathogens among people.3 A variety of criteria can be applied to assess the signifi- cance of health problems caused by inadequate environmental ser- vices, including rate of population growth, number of persons per dwelling unit, capacity of water treatment and sewage treat- ment systems relative to demand, distance to a physician or hos- pital, and the presence of community health plans.k Based on these criteria, a recent study indicated that energy development significantly affected 60 communities, 38 are moderately affected, (Table 10-31), and another 114 would be potentially affected ad- versely5 if population continues to grow without added services. 1 Copley International Corporation. Health Impacts of Envi- ronmental Pollution in Energy-Development~Impacted Communities^ Executive Summary for the Environmental Protection Agency. La" Jolla, Calif.: Copley International, 1977, pp. 29-30. For a description of accidents associated with transportation facilities, see Chapter 11. 2New Mexico, Environmental Improvement Agency, Staff. Personal Communication, June 1977. 3Copley. Health Impacts of Environmental Pollution. "Ibid., pp. 13-16. 5States included in the study are in EPA Region VIII (Colo- rado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming). States not included but a part of this technology assessment are Arizona and New Mexico. Ibid. 890 ------- O EH W ffi W EH Q O3 O CO pT\| O Q H W EH N H >H U EH K W H CO 2 EH »—} ^ rj 2 W H s a fa O ft H U O U i-3 W 2 W ft CO I H > W W Q W CO EH W O CO 03 03 O W X H W CO O ro I O CQ D -H ft O 4UNITY g 0 CJ 0 O VD O O CN «. » CN VD rH ^* 1-1 0 O 00 O T O H VO rH rH H 0 O VD O <=i< r- •. •. r^ CN 00 O 0 o o r~) 3* n CN -P C -P O C U 0 C U rd C rd C — CO cn \|__1 £j •H O S -P O -— en >H x; c rd rrj -H 04-P g •r) D r( rd fd M fa rd o; . rH rH O O vo 00 ~ 4-1 C 0 U X! (U CQ o 03 a. •H M -P rH o U o in o «. 0 rH O o VD 00 o in <-> - 00 o o ^^ I>1 -P C 3 O U r) QJ O 0) ^ — • cl rd H 3 0) PQ 891 ------- Q W H Cn H g H EH H Q H !S ffi >K D EH O o &a CJ CM O W PL, O C* > EH W < hi g CO ID co pq ro I O w r4 P3 <: EH Q W EH U CM g H RATELY W Q O s Q W EH O CM O CM V [2 o v H a; W EH S 0 i U g 23 CO D S in 1 I — 1 o rH ro rH rH ro (N CN CN rH -P H C -P M O >i H 0) Q (U >- rH tT CM !H O 0) U C cfl pq rd U O C O -H -P U QJ -P O CM 892 ------- Diseases and increases in accident rates associated with crowding are also likely to increase in energy impacted communi- ties. Crowding, for example, favors the spread of airborne pathogens such as influenza, the common cold, as well as child- hood and other contagious diseases. In addition, crowding pro- duces stress that can result in mental illness, child abuse, alcoholism, and other behavioral disorders.1 In some locations, an increased rural population will be exposed to diseases only infrequently encountered. For example, in the northwestern quadrant of New Mexico where extensive coal, uranium, and petro- leum deposits are found, more than 50 cases of plague have oc- curred since 1949.2 This area has a population of less than 100,000 yet it has half the plague cases occurring in the U.S. and the rate of incidence has been continually increasing in recent decades. In 1975, more than 15 cases of plague were re- ported in New Mexico.3 One of the more substantiated hypotheses is that the encroachment of human population into areas that were once wilderness is responsible for these outbreaks of plague. "* Without disease control or public education programs, the popula- tion growth associated with energy development in areas with endemic parasitic or contagious diseases is likely to intensify the incidence of those diseases. 10.8 IMPACTS ON OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH AND SAFETY 10.8.1 Introduction Most of the factors associated with energy development that can affect public health (discussed in Section 10.7) can also affect workers in energy facilities. They include fugitive dust, gaseous emissions, and radioactive substances as well as the more toxic liquid and solid waste by-products handled by the workers. In addition, workers will be subject to the risk of injuries resulting from falls, fires, contact with machinery, and being struck by objects. The combination of health and safety risks Copley International Corporation. Health Impacts of En- vironmental Pollution in Energy-Development Impacted Communities, Executive Summary for the Environmental Protection Agency. La Jolla, Calif.: Copley International, 1977, pp. 29-30. 2Weber, Neil S. "Plague in New Mexico." Albuquerque, N. Mex.: State of New Mexico, Environmental Improvement Agency, Vector Control Program, January 1977, p. 26. 3Ibid., p. 27. *Ibid. , pp. 8-9. Plague is transmitted primarily through contact with fleas that have been associated with wild rodent populations. 893 ------- has been a focus of increasing legislative attention in recent years.1 The remainder of this section summarizes safety risks and then discusses these safety hazards in more detail in the develop- ment of coal, crude oil and natural gas, geothermal power, oil shale,- and uranium. 10.8.2 Summary of Safety Risks Table 10-32 summarizes accident rate information for facili- ties considered in this study. The data are based on industry aver- ages or, in some cases, projections from related industries, and should be interpreted with caution. They are accident-related and do not include deaths or lost time due to chronic health problems related to pollutants in the working environment. Using informa- tion on the operational work force for each facility, these data were converted to indicate the frequency of accidents per worker per year. As shown in Table 10-33, underground mining is the most risky occupation as measured by the probability of death due to on- the-job injuries. Uranium mill workers have the highest probability of injury. Compared to other industries, as shown in Table 10-34 the risk of injury in most energy facilities appears to be similar. The exception, again, is underground mining, which has a higher risk than other industries. 10.8.3 Coal Development A. Accidents As suggested above, underground mining is the most hazardous technology in the coal fuel cycle. The contrast between under- ground and surface mine safety is distinctive when compared on an equivalent energy basis, since the more hazardous underground mines yield less coal per worker per day. As shown in Table 10-35, deaths from underground mining are about five times higher per 1 Specific coal-focused legislation includes the Federal Coal Mine Health and Safety Act of 1969, Pub. L. 91-173, 83 Stat. 742; the Federal Mine Safety and Health Amendments Act of 1977, Pub. L. 95-164, 91 Stat. 1290; and the Black Lung Benefits Act of 1972, improved safety is assigned to the Mine Enforcement and Safety Ad- ministration. The Occupational Safety and Health Act, Pub. L. 91- 596, 84 Stat. 150, seeks to improve the health and safety of all workers including those in energy facilities, creating the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health for research, and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration for standards setting and enforcement. 894 ------- TABLE 10-32: SUMMARY OF OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENT DATA FOR TYPICAL SIZE FACILITIES RESOURCE AND FACILITY Coal Surface Mining (12 MMtpy) Underground Mining (12 MMtpy) a Coal Beneficiation Gasification' (250 MMsfd) Liquefaction (30,000 bbl/day) Powejr Plant (3,000 MW,e) Oil (100,000 bbl/day) Gas (250 MMcfd field) Geo thermal Oil shale Underground mine (66,000 tpd crushed shale) Surface mine (66,000 tpd crushed shale) Modified in situ (41,000 tpd oil shale) mining Surface retorting Modified in situ including processing Uranium Mine Mill (1,200 Mtpy) DEATHS PER YEAR 0.60 5.00 0.56 0.45 0.32 0.77 0.45 0.20 NA 0.80 0.20 0.10 0.15 NA NA 0.046 INJURIES PER YEAR 19 260 11 15 6.2 3.2 43 19 NA 34 10 5 15 NA NA 14.1 WORKER DAYS LOST PER YEAR 1,300 14,000 4,900 4,200 1,494 1,200 7,154 3,200 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 873 MMtpy = million tons per year MMsfd = million standard feet per day bbl/day = barrels per day MWe = megawatts-electric MMcfd = million cubic feet per day NA = not available tpd = tons per day Mtpy = metric tons per year Sources: White, Irvin L., et al. Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: Chapter3; and Hittman Associates, Energy From the West: Energy Resource Development U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming, Inc. Environmental Impacts, Efficiency and Cost of Energy Supplied by Emerging Technologies, Draft Report on Tasks 7 and 8, HIT-582. Hittman Associates, May 1974. Columbia, Md.: Data on coal mining from Bliss, C., et al. Accidents and Unscheduled Events Associated with Non-Muclear Energy Resources and Technology. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. 895 ------- TABLE 10-33: SAFETY RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY FACILITIES EXPRESSED PER INDIVIDUAL FACILITY Coal Surface mining (12 MMtpy) Underground mining (12 MMtpy) Gasification (250 MMsfd) Liquefaction (30,000 gpd) Power plant (3,000 MW) Oil (100,000 bbl/day) Gas (250 MMcfd field) Oil Shale Underground mine (66,000 tpd crushed shale) Surface retorting Uranium Mill (1,200 Mtpy) FREQUENCY PER WORKER PEP YEAR3 OF: DEATH 0.0011 0.0024 0.0008 0.0004 0.0017 0.0002 0.0003 0.0014 0.0004 0.0003 INJURY 0.034 0.090 0.002 0.007 0.007 0.021 0.024 0.062 0.045 0.104 MMtpy = million tons per year MMsfd = million -standard feet per day gpd = gallons per day MW = megawatt bbl/day = barrels per day MMcfd = million cubic feet per day tpd = tons per day Mtpy - metric tons per year aData from Table 10-32 divided by operational work force for each facility (given in Chapters 4-9 and summarized in Chapter 3) 896 ------- TABLE 10-34: INJURY RATES IN SELECTED INDUSTRIES, 1973 INDUSTRY Automobile Chemical Petroleum Shipbuilding Nonferrous metals and products Surface mining, all types^ Construction Railroad equipment Quarry^ Underground mining, except coalb Underground coal miningb All industries0 FREQUENCY OF INJURY PER WORKER3 PER YEAR .0032 .0085 .0135 .0142 .0186 .0195 .0272 .0285 .0353 .0505 .0709 .0211 Source: Bliss, C., et al. Accidents and Unscheduled Events Associated with Non-Nuclear Energy Resources an< Technology. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. aThese values were calculated from the above source. Injury rates in the source were given as injuries per million man hours. We assumed that one million man hours was equivalent to 500 man years (i.e., an average worker works 2,000 hours per year). bBased on data for 1972. °Rates not fully comparable from year to year due to reporting inconsistencies. 897 ------- cfl CO T3 CO S "I >H W O f< EH rH Q CO >H rtf H Q U -P C CO W W IH D Q I-D W H H ^ I CO IH ffi f< EH O (< U W Q PH O OJ 5 O cu -P ^-» 4-> in (C o en a) HH g o 0 CO O o o o 4-> - O rH (0 m n i o rH w i-q PQ 0 O H PS O PM CO Z pi H O Z M CO CO w o O Pi PM W U cS Z P O CO I~H H O Q H 0 X! Prf W O W Z o pa M H H r4 PU w P K U 8 ^4 z CM 1—4 o • o o CO • CM 00 CO CM O • O oo o CO o f^ vO • CO X! 4J Cfl CU Q ^3 z oo ro • i— i o 3" • CO CM *D LO • CM & • CO m oo 05 CU •H rJ 3 •r~> C f— ) ^3 Z ON • CN m i — i o %3" ro •N CM O in • ON ON ON ON o- 00 t^- \D " CO >} cfl 13 s. J-i O ^ 0 4J CO O rH CU »-Q CO rH •H cfl > cfl 4J o G II "^ g; 60 CU C r-i cfl cu rH 0 3 Z i C 0 z r~] 4-J •H Jj 13 cu 4-1 CO •H U 0 05 05 <^ Cfl 1 \| C CU ^ w T) CU rH 3 "O cu jS 0 Cfl C •a C cfl 05 4J C 0) •a •H U a <^ •s ^ O CD c o CU CO 60 4-1 Cfl C v-x cu e 'H C H O cfl r< r-l •H ^ ^> C ,Q fjj >• 'cu CO > •H P 05 3 iH O O CU • Q -> 0 C 0. O 05 w C 60 Cfl C rl •H 4-1 f? CO iH CO Cfl IS O O C >-, o 60 0 -O rH CU O 05 C cfl • XI ,£> iH cfl 4-1 CU O CU iH H CO O 13 O C • •• Cfl rH '4-1 in o O 05 cu • co ~ u a. 4-) 05 t-l U 05 3 - cfl •H o r- cx rH 05 r-~ B PQ CU ON H CO Pi r-l XI rH cfl j L O 4J 4H O U C CJ r-l cu f\ f-H • O CO •H 4J G cfl r— 1 a o •H ^ 4-1 O ^) 1 i^n CU i CO 4J 4-1 Cfl [} cfl 60 01 B o o o ft. i— H cfl Jj O 4-J >, rH p. P< 3 CO rH Cfl 0 O rH Cfl 3 G C cfl • #\ ^-^ w QJ i — i •H B • w ^ cfl 13 r-l O [J O o 1 — 1 4H O CO CO O rH O 4-1 05 rrj CO 0) rH f^ i-l 3 •r-) C •H 0) 60 Cfl M CU > cfl 4-1 Cfl f-f 4J 13 cu B 3 05 05 ^ • CU 60 cfl CU iH •H s 1 C 0 4-1 rH Cfl C O •H 4_) Cfl C , 05 CU •rl 3 •r~) C •H , \| cfl cfl 4-1 cu o 4-1 CO 01 •H j_, 3 !"") C •H 4-J c cu C cfl j_, 0) Cu •a G cfl 05 X! 4-1 CO cu 13 13 CU C •H f~\ c* O a cu j2 4-1 4H rH 5 I CU G 0 05 CU B 3 CO CO ^ CJ cu 4-1 O 13 c cfl ^ 4J CO o 05 ^> Cfl 13 ^ O O O o fl ^o 4-1 c cu CO cu a cu o 4-1 13 cu t-i CU 13 •H 05 C o o cu £_j cfl 05 01 •H 4-J •H ! 1 •H Xi cfl CO •H 13 rH CO 4-1 O 4-1 4-1 C CU G £3 t-l cu PM . 4-1 CO O rH 05 >N cfl 13 o O H 4-1 Cfl 13 CU 4-1 Cfl S •H 4-1 05 CU CU CO CO a) •H 4-1 •H rH •H CN cfl 05 •H 13 , CO •H Cfl o •H G O O O a 3 CU C tx 13 Q) 4-1 Cfl O •H f— 1 a. B 0 o o 4-1 13 CU 4J 3 X> •H i-i 4-1 4-1 Cfl 4-J 05 0 rH 05 ^t CO 13 O 60 C •H 13 3 rH O X w 13 898 ------- than for surface mining, injuries are about six times higher, and work days lost are about nine times higher. The frequency of injuries in underground coal mines is also higher than for under- ground mining of other materials.1 Underground mine accidents have become much less frequent since the passage of the Mine Health and Safety Act of 1969. However, mine safety varies with the geological characteristics of the site and the specific technology being used. For example, in 1975 not a single lost-time accident at the working face oc- curred in all shortwall mining.2 Increased coal production, however, is likely to require the use of inexperienced miners and accident rates are likely to increase unless effective train- ing programs are instituted for new miners (Mining Enforcement and Safety Administration [MESA] now requires miners to be trained).3 As Table 10-35 indicates, coal processing (e.g., cleaning, sizing, and drying operations) and coal conversion to electric power are considerably less hazardous than mining and coal trans- port. The accident potential of synthetic fuels production from coal is not known. However, since most liquefaction and gasifica- tion processes operate at high temperature and pressure, accidents involving pressure vessel rupture may be expected.4 Transmission and distribution accidents involve downed power lines and accidents involved in construction, operation, and repair. A National Safety Council study in 1972 showed that the accident frequency rate for the electric utility industry was less than the average for all reporting industries with 6.42 injuries 1 The frequency of injuries in underground coal mines is more than three times the average for selected industries and about one and a half times the average for underground mining of other mate- rials. The severity of underground coal mining injuries was almost eight times the all-industry average and about 25 percent higher than noncoal underground mining. Bliss, C., et a1. Accidents and Unscheduled Events Associated with Non-Nuclear Energy Resources and Technology. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977, p. 30. 2Kash, Don E., et al. The Impacts of Accelerated Coal Utili- zation, Draft Report, Contract No. OTA-C-182. Norman, Okla.: University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program, 1977, pp. 8-19. 3 Ibid. ''Bliss et al. Accidents and Unscheduled Events, p. 30. 899 ------- million worker-hours exposure. However, the severity rate was higher with 1,003 total days charged for injuries per million worker-hours exposure compared to 655 per million worker-hours exposure for all reporting industries for the period 1970-1972.l B. Respiratory Disease Respiratory illness caused from working in underground coal mines is perhaps the best known occupational health impact. "Black lung disease" (pneumoconiosis), chronic bronchitis, emphy- sema, and airways obstruction currently affect more than one- third of the underground coal miners in the U.S.2 The death rate from respiratory disease among workers in deep mines has been five times the heavy industrial average.3 In 1973 the federal government paid about $1 billion to coal miners and their depen- dents as compensation for black lung disease, and the total com- pensation level may rise to $8 billion by 1980. 4 It is expected that under MESA regulation, future mining operations will cause less black lung disease among new employees, but new cases are almost certain to occur. C. Cancer Workers in coal mines and in some conversion facilities are subject to increased incidence of cancer. The cancer hazard due to the combustion products of coal have been observed in related industries. For example, cancer death rates over 300 times higher than the general population have been reported for workers 1 Bliss, C., et al. Accidents and Unscheduled Events Asso- ciated with Non-Nuclear Energy Resources and Technology. Washing- ton, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977, p. 30. 2U.S., Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. Occuaptional Safety and Health Implications of Increased Coal Utilization, Draft. Rockville, Md.: National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, 1977, lines 88-92. 3U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, et al. Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed Development of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal Basin of Wyoming, 6 vols. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Bureau of Land Manage- ment, 1974. 4Edwards, P.E. The Washington Post, May 29, 1973, as cited in National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, Com- mission on Natural Resources, Committee on Mineral Resources and the Environment. Mineral Resources and the Environment. Washing- ton, D.C.: National Academy of Sciences, 1975, p. 213. 900 ------- on the top of coke ovens.1 Experience in the ]950's with a coal liquefaction plant operated by Union Carbide in Institute, West Virginia showed that, despite efforts to educate workers to the hazards of unnecessary contact with oils and instruction in decon- tamination practices, skin cancer during 7 years of operation occurred at 16-37 times the rate normally reported.2 Air samples showed benzo(a)pyrene concentrations (see Section 10.7) as high as 18.70 micrograms per 100 cubic meters on plant premises. This is about 30 times higher than an urban environment with heavy automobile traffic.3 In Japan, Britain, and Sweden, excess can- cers of various organs have been noted in workers producing gas from coal in various processes.4 These observations suggest but do not causally establish increased cancer risks associated with coal-conversion processes, and it is not possible to generalize from these cases to the fa- cilities planned for the western U.S. because both the specific processes and their scale of operation differ. In addition, recent federal requirements for maintaining worker safety have changed working conditions. The raw materials for coal conversion generally contain very small quantities of cancer-causing substances. Further, the pro- cesses of gasification and liquefaction result in the formation of complex organic molecules, some of which may cause cancer. Synthetic gas prior to upgrading to pipeline quality contains 1 Lloyd, J.W. "Long-Term Mortality Study of Steelworkers: V. Respiratory Cancer in Coal Plant Workers." Journal of Occu- pational Medicine, Vol. 13 (February 1971), pp. 53-68. 2Sexton, R.J. "The Hazards to Health in the Hydrogenation of Coal: I. An Introductory Statement on General Information Process Description, and a Definition of the Problem," Archives of Environmental Health, Vol. 1 (September 1960), pp. 181-86; and Sexton, R.J. "The Hazards to Health in the Hydrogenation of Coal: IV. The Control Program and the Clinical Effects." Archives of Environmental Health, Vol. 1 (September 1960), pp. 208-31. 3Ketcham, N.H., and B.S. Norton. "The Hazards to Health in the Hydrogenation of Coal: III. The Industrial Hygiene Studies." Archives of Environmental Health, Vol. 1 (September 1960) , pp. 194-207. 4Kauai, M., et al. "Epidemiologic Study of Occupational Lung Cancer." Archives of Environmental Health, Vol. 14 (1967), pp. 859-64; and Doll, R. , et al~! "Mortality of Gas Workers with Special Reference to Cancers of the Lung and Bladder, Chronic Bronchitis, and Pneumoconiosis." British Journal of Industrial Medicine, Vol. 22 (January 1965), pp^i 1-12"! 901 ------- more hazardous substances than the final product.1 Therefore, the greatest plant hazards will be from fugitive losses of raw synthetic gas and from the cleanup procedures (sulfur recovery, tar separation, etc.) designed to remove harmful substances. To a lesser extent, fugitive emissions from storage and blending of the final product may constitute a hazard.2 Workers stationed in these areas would receive regular exposure to fugitive emissions in amounts largely determined by standards of controls and clean- liness. Solid wastes from coal conversion include an ash discharged into a settling pond as a wet-solid. If process wastewaters are used to slurry the ash, workers may be in contact with a number of toxic compounds. The solid wastes potentially most hazardous are the chars and tars produced as process residues. In many instances, these could be burned in utility boilers. However, even then, care in preventing contact with these materials when transferred from reactor to boiler would be required. D. Stress Effects The rapid development and use of coal is likely to increase overtime hours worked, employee fatigue, and hence accident rates.3 Moreover, these factors can contribute to physical and mental health problems related to job stress and strain, such as heart disorders and neuroses. The impact may be especially serious on coal miners, who have been reported by National Institute of Occupation Safety and Health (NIOSH) to have unusally high levels of psychological distress and a high incidence of morbidity and mortality from stress-related disorders. " 1Of the major gasification processes, the highest risk of occupationally related cancer is thought to be associated with high-pressure, fixed-bed processes. Freudenthal, R.I., G.A. Lutz, and R.I. Mitchell. Carcinogenic Potential of Coal and Coal Con- version Products, Battelle Energy Program Report. Columbus, Ohio: Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus Laboratories, 1975. 2Cavanaugh, E.G., et al. Potentially Hazardous Emissions from the Extraction and Processing of Coal and Oil, EPA-650/ 2-76-038. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corporation, 1975. 3U.S., Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. Occupational Safety and Health Implications of Increased Coal Utilization, Draft. Rockville, Md.: National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, 1977, lines 830-32. ''Ibid. , lines 820-29. 902 ------- 10.8.4 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Development Although less severe than in coal development, occupational accidents in the crude oil resource system are frequent and costly in terms of numbers of injuries, work days lost, and damage to equipment.1 Major accidents involve spillage, blowouts, fire, explosion, and entanglement in machinery. These accidents occur at each stage in the energy cycle. Hazardous explosive conditions are associated with well blowouts, pipeline ruptures and leaks, other transportation accidents, and storage tank accidents.2 Major losses of life and property from such events occur in re- fineries and tank farms.3 In the natural gas system, blowouts during drilling of ex- ploratory and production wells, release of sulfur compounds during processing, and failures of pipelines account for the largest number of accidents.1* Sudden uncontrolled release of natural gas may result in explosions and fires causing damage to equipment and loss of life or injury to persons in the vicinity. In addition, the general public is exposed to pipeline hazards because they traverse populated residential and commercial areas.5 Pipeline distribution accounts for the largest number of injuries and workdays lost in the natural gas system: about 0.0138 iniuries/1012 Btu's of gas produced and 0.324 worker days lost/ 10 Btu's, respectively.6 Most pipeline failures can be attrib- uted to corrosion and damage by outside forces. Other possible sources of natural gas accidents are the failure of aboveground storage tanks. Higher rates of cancers of the lung, nasal cavities, and sinus have been observed in counties where petroleum industries are most heavily concentrated,7 including four counties in 1 Bliss, C., et al. Accidents and Unscheduled Events Associ- ated with Non-Nuclear Energy Resources and Technology, Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, February 1977, p. 30. 2 Ibid. 3Ibid., p. 31 "Ibid. 5 Ibid. 6 Ibid. 7Mortality is 1.15 to 1.48 as great as expected. Plot, William J., et al. "Cancer Mortality in U.S. Counties with Petro- leum Industries." Science, Vol. 198 (October 7, 1977), pp. 51-53. 903 ------- Wyoming.1 But this incidence is thought to be related to refining or petrochemical industries, rather than to the extraction and transportation phases included in this technology assessment. Table 10-36 summarizes the results of a study on safety risks for oil and gas field development workers.2 On an equivalent energy basis, the risk of death to workers in oil and gas fields is about the same, risk of injury is higher in oil fields than in gas fields and risk of work days lost is higher in gas fields than in oil fields. 10.8.5 Geothermal Resource Development Only limited working experience is available in geothermal resources development. Accidents reported include transportation accidents associated with exploration, blowouts, leaks, explosions during extraction, and mechanical accidents associated with the electric power generation step. The most severe anticipated accident would be a well blowout releasing hot fluids and steam to the surface.3 A blowout can cause injuries as well as damage to equipment. Early development at both the Cerro Prieto field in Mexico and at the Geysers in California has resulted in blow- outs.1* If natural gas is present, a fire could also result.5 A less severe accident would be a pipeline leak or rupture caused by an earthquake, mechanical failure, human error, or pressure buildup due to mineral deposition.6 Geothermal resource develop- ment can also cause subsidence resulting in damage to buildings and equipment. A summary of accident types associated with geo- thermal resource development is given in Table 10-37. Health hazards in geothermal development may also result from exposure to hydrogen sulfide and ammonia. Depending on the type of accident or condition, these gases may be released to the atmo- sphere in toxic concentrations along with certain trace gases 1"Using Cancer's Rates to Track Its Cause." Business Week, November 14, 1977, p. 69. Counties included: Carbon, Laramie, Natrona and Park. 2Battelle Columbus and Pacific Northwest Laboratories. Environmental Considerations in Future Energy Growth. Columbus, Ohio: Battelle Columbus Laboratories, 1973. 3Bliss, C., et al. Accidents and Unscheduled Events Associa- ted with Non-Nuclear Energy Resources and Technology. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977, p. 32. ulbid., p. 193. 5Ibid., p. 33. 6Ibid. 904 ------- H a) O CO Z 2 O H H CO W H CL, DH O >H EH W W EH S CO O I-H W 2 W O Q H EH CO CM O U Q U 2 O H EH W 1 CD CO x: 4J to CD Q rH rH O o CN 0 O 0 rH 0 • CO 3" SH rd i SH CD ft CO CD •H SH 13 •n C H 0 m ro CTv n o •— 1 nn o 0 0 CN " co 0 • O o CN CN ^_l CD ft 4J CO o ^ CO ^1 fO Q ^_i C fO tO CD -P O O m o "Q 0 H U CD V-l M SH . rc ex T3 • in SH (U -P ft fO -P -P •H ^ CD C rO CD 3 T! m rH SH U (0 CD -H 6 Pi .O SH d QJ CO U X! rH -P CD C SH O x; SH -H CO (0 rH •P -H •H II £ SH pq >i II rd II ^ T3 \ m 3 rH U W rQ S -p C CD W CD rH H CD -P -P ffl in (U •H 0 -H x! O en O 4-1 rO JQ M £ O 3 X! i—I tO O J U 4-1 CO • CD X! £ 4-1 X! S 4-1 O O O O C -H SH 4H 0) •H C U W (0 Oi 0) SH C -P rO 3 h CO d co rH C O O U -H CD tO rH SH rH CD CD 13 4-1 -H 4-1 CO rO C m o CO U CO 905 ------- I o W J CO < EH u o Pi pi p n H O pa P 3 P CO CO w Pi P4 o W O P H J H5^J HH a w o pa P H 1 O p pi H P o-S H INATED 5RMAL P H Z W P H U X X X X X X X XXX X XXXX X XXX X XXXX XXX X X X XXXX d o 13 -H CU CO 60 0 0 C >> 3 1-1 •!-! 4J 13 CX i— 1 •H C X cfl o -i-i cu cu •H CO CO gCJ T3 CU 4-1 CO -H -H 60 T3 C «H 6 0) 3 CO C CUO) OJCDCOCO l-i r-IHCUcO C U13 Cfl-HCUCU 3 U-ii-HO OCOC-H d W CU(-I13 H d -Hd60 •H4JCUU O4J'OM3'Hd'H OCJCXCUd 4-1 3 -O a -i-l 3 ------- such as mercury which are toxic at lower concentrations.1 Actual worker exposure has not been determined. Many geothermal waters contain concentrations of radium above drinking water standards.2 These waters also contain radon daugh- ters. According to one study, radiation risk from occupational ex- posures is not likely if water streams are contained and adequate ventilation exists. However, possible impacts depend on the size of development and type of technology used.3 10.8.6 Oil Shale Development Occupational exposure to health and safety risks in oil shale development occur both in the mining and conversion phases. Safety hazards are summarized in Table 10-38. These data are based on projections from related industrial activities, not on actual ex- perience with oil shale development. Thus, they must be interpreted cautiously. As indicated in Table 10-38, conventional oil shale development (mining followed by surface retort) exposes more workers to the haz- ards of a mine environment and process phases, which produce more HC, than does modified in situ development. The data in Table 10-38 also indicate that mining oil shale will be less hazardous than mining coal.1 Roof collapse is less likely for an equivalent sized room because of the hardness of the shale. However, larger rooms are likely to be used in oil shale mining. Explosions in the mine due to buildup of flammable gases probably will not occur, although explosive mixtures of dust may form.5 Explosions and fires may also occur in shale processing. The incidence of severe accidents is likely to be similar to that observed for other processes in- volving use of hydrogen under high pressure.6 Resource Planning Associates, Inc. Western Energy Resources and the Environment; Geothermal Energy. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Energy, Minerals, and Industry, 1977, pp. 67-68. 2O'Connell, M.F., and R.F. Kartmann. Radioactivity Associated with Geothermal Waters in the Western United States. Las Vegas, Nev.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, n.d., p. 21. 3 Ibid., p. 22. ''Bliss, C. , et al. Accidents and Unscheduled Events Associa- ted with Non-Nuclear Energy Resources and Technology. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, February 1977, p. 33. 5 Ibid. 6 Ibid. 907 ------- 00 m I o rH W J PQ < EH EH CO o Pi co H Q Pi Pi W W 04 0 CO Pi w <; H W Pi >H D h} p^ 2 W H p-i Pi co <; K W EH >n rt^ W Pi Q W 04 JH O 0 j_^ 0 £j K U W EH r£ — ^ -H g 'd 'd CO T3 ft Q) ft ft r^J 4-> C 4-> C 4-> C -H H 3o So o O O O rQ O wo o)o CD o tn - U - -H - H ^D rd VO IH iH d) ^O M-4 VD -H ^J1 rrj N — ^ rr^ C! 3 O ID co g i O rd M t) O4 \ — 1 X! t7) ^i ,Q C rd 31 •H -d 4-> p 4-> \ -HO M rH C0\|0 O XI - 4-> XI £\|o QJ H\|m Pi 0 ^ O T3 0) O (1) (1) U - -H fji rdo m rd m m -H 4-> W — T3 CO 3 O CO g >, T3 (U en rH 0) J-l xt II fX\| rd •d XI XJ JX\| d) rd rH rrj Q rd t i , I 0) -H ft rd en td C O 4-) •P 0 C II II ft j ^ji U r- C -P QJ H rH -H O O ft •• •H oj en ^ Pi 0) 4-1 4-> W 4-1 rd IH -H ^ rd U WwO 4-) Q en U tn ft tn g 0) H -H tn rH 0 rd rH -P 0 C C 0) Xi g u 2 Q) O EH )q •H tP > C C -H W tn H 0) • g U W C H >i X! v 0) 0) 4-J -H rd rH •H ft O ft O 3 en co tn f^ £>i CT> C ii rd Q) g C -P W 4-) •H IH ffi O 4-) .. tn 0) O o u 3 -d o c CO rd "! C f^J g 43 4-) -H ffi • t • 'd g V rd -H Xl g 3 rH O u . CN 00 m I EH H ffi >. 00 C rd r> en ry en rd EH C 0 4-1 C 0) U M Q) ft in CN X! 4-1 -H ^ o; c •H g rrj C 3 O H tn >_i CD rrj C 3 O 4J 4-1 C Q) rH rd •H • rt k> D1 U QJ O M QJ 4-1 QJ rd rH w to Xi 4-> en C QJ rH 'd H •H O O O M-( rd O 0) rH g en o tn g < Q) ni w 908 ------- Health hazards in underground mines also include exposure to shale dust that contains silica, inorganic salts, toxic metals, and organics. Free silica can cause silicosis.1 Some studies indicate that shale consists of 10 percent silica although other analyses found no free silica in respirable size ranges. Oil shale itself is not generally thought to be cancer pro- ducing; the organic portion of the shale rock is mainly low- molecular-weight organic material with little aromatic HC content. However, retorting produces such HC as PAH's suspected of produc- ing cancer. Tests on Colorado oil shale gave a distillate con- taining 2 percent PAH's.3 Upgrading shale oil reduces its car- cinogenicity by breaking down these components. However, the residues may contain relatively high concentrations of PAH's." British workers regularly exposed to raw shale oil and to lubricating oil made from shale have showed a high incidence of scrotal and skin cancer.5 Skin cancers have also been found in workers exposed to shale-derived tars, light oil, waxes, and cutting oils.6 However, in contrast with the British experience, oil shale industries in Estonia, Brazil, and Sweden have not re- ported increased incidences of cancer among workers. No skin can- cers were detected in the small-scale Bureau of Mines shale oil demonstration plant near Rifle, Colorado although there was a high incidence of benign skin lesions. 1 White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West; Energy Re- source Development Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming, Chapter 4. 2Ashland Oil, Inc.; Shell Oil Col. Operator. Oil Shale Tract C-b: Detailed Development Plan and Related Materials, prepared for submittal to the Area Oil Shale Supervisor pursuant to Lease C-20341 issued under the Federal Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Pro- gram, February 1976, Vol. 1, p. V-77. 3Not all PAH's are carcinogens, but most organic carcinogens found in shale oil are PAH's. ''Schmidt-Collerus, Josef J. Disposal and Environmental Ef- fects of Carbonaceous Solid Wastes from Commercial Oil Shale Operations. Denver, Colo.: University of Denver, Research In- stitute, 1974. 5Commoner, B. "From Percival Pott to Henry Kissinger." Hospital Practice, Vol. (1975), pp. 138-41. 6Auld, S.J.M. "Environmental Cancer and Petroleum." Journal of the Institute of Petroleum, Vol. 36 (April 1950), pp. 235-53. 909 ------- Some carcinogens will be emitted in the stack gas from the boilers and retort;! these will be dispersed into the atmosphere around the plant. While a continuing pattern of exposure would occur in areas affected by poor dispersion, there is no direct evidence to suggest that the concentration resulting would con- stitute a significant health hazard. Spent shale disposal could also expose populations to cancer- causing chemicals. In Estonian spent shale dumps, small unsatu- rated HC molecules (with less than 25 carbon atoms), some of which could be carcinogenic, are believed to be formed.2 Carbonaceous spent shale produced by retorting Colorado oil shale has been shown to contain carcinogens.3 Workers compacting the spent shale or maintaining the containment dikes, could be exposed to these substances regularly by inhalation. Process waters and various aqueous plant wastes will be con- taminated with PAH's and other HC. These wastes may be used to slurry or "wet down" the spent shale, arid workers involved may be exposed to the carcinogens through contact or inhalation. 10.8.7 Uranium Development Workers are exposed to potentially hazardous conditions in both uranium mines and mills. Underground metals mining is safer than underground coal mining, but exposure to radioactive materials is greater. Milling requires exposure to several risks, including exposure to radiation. A. Mining The two principle hazards from uranium mining are accidents within the mine and exposure to disease producing residuals. Accident data are not avilable for uranium mines apart from other underground metal mines. These industry data indicate that hard 1 These include the polynuclear aromatic carcinogens 7,12- dimethylbenz(a)anthracene, dibonz(a,j)anthracene, 3-methyIchoi- anthrene, benz(c)phenanthrene, benzpyrenes, benzanthracenes, chrysene, and carbazoles, among others. Barrett, R.E., et al. Assessment of Industrial Boiler Toxic and Hazardous Emissions Control Needs, Final Report, Cotract No. 68-02-1232, Task 8. Columbus, Ohio: Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus Laboratories, 1974 2Schmidt-Collerus, Josef J. Disposal and Environmental Effects of Carbonaceous Solid Wastes from Commercial Oil Shale Operations. Denver, Colo.: University of Denver, Research In- stitute, 1974. 3 Ibid. 910 ------- rock mining is a hazardous activity, although less hazardous than coal mining (see Table 10-34). Because conditions vary signifi- cantly among mines, average data should be interpreted with cau- tion for assessing the risk at specific locations. Like coal, surface uranium mining is less hazardous than underground mining. The incidence of lung cancer in uranium miners has been of special congern, and during the last 10 years exposure levels have been reduced in an attempt to lower the incidence of disease. In a study of 4,180 uranium miners from 1950 to 1973, approximately 180 excess respiratory malignancies have been reported (1 out of every 23 miners).1 Among this group, some 600 to 1,000 may even- tually die prematurely due to lung cancer.2 Other studies indi- cate that one out of every six of these miners may die of lung cancer within 10 years following 1976.3 Of 100 Navajo miners who worked on one Southwest mine, 18 have died of lung cancer and radiation induced illnesses.4 Although average doses have been reduced, some scientists believe that present standards expose miners to levels that would create lung cancer at double the av- erage rate of the population.5 B. Milling The most likely types of accidents associated with uranium mill operations are inadvertent discharges of tailings to nearby rivers or streams or a major fire in a solvent extraction circuit.6 Tailings dams could fail because of flooding, equipment failure, ^churgin, Arell A., and Thomas C. Hollocher. "Radiation- Induced Lung Cancers Among Uranium Miners," in Union of Concerned Scientists, ed. The Nuclear Fuel Cycle; A Survey of the Public Health, Environmental, and National Security Effects of Nuclear Power, rev. ed. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1975, p. 9. 2Ibid. 3Nafziger, Rich. Indian Uranium: Profits and Perils, AIO Red Paper. Albuquerque, N. Mex.: Americans for Indian Opportunity, 1976. ''Ibid., as cited in Schurgin and Hollocher. "Radiation- Induced Lung Cancers." 5Schurgin and Hollocher. "Radiation-Induced Lung Cancers," p. 30. 6U.S., Atomic Energy Commission, Directorate of Licensing, Fuels and Materials. Environmental Survey of the Uranium Fuel Cycle, WASH-1248. Washington, D.C.: Atomic Energy Commission, 1972, p. B-22. 911 ------- or operating errors such as inattention,1 One reported incident involved the release of about 2,000 gallons of tailings liquid due to a break in a secondary tailings dike; the break was caused by unusually high runoff from melting snow.2 In the solvent extraction process of a mill,3 several thou- sand gallons of solvent (mostly kerosene), containing as much as several thousand pounds of natural uranium, are present and used in the refining process. This solvent represents a potential for a serious fire and release of uranium. Explosions and fires with a large volume of intense smoke, such as those characteristic of petroleum fires, are possible. Both fires and tailings releases have occurred in a number of uranium mills. However, two large fires in two separate mills involving solvent extraction circuits, in which 2 to 3 thousand pounds of uranium were present in the circuits at the time, caused no appreciable release of uranium.4 Additional incidents occur in the uranium mill's drying and packaging area. Fires have been caused by the improper use of an open flame or welding.5 Other accidents include overflows from process tanks, failure of process lines, or leaks and.spills of sulfuric acid or kerosene.6 Health risk from exposure to radia- tion in the vicinity of uranium mills is discussed in Section 10.7 A five year study of the safety of nuclear facilities pro- vides a summary of the occupational health hazards from uranium mills. For a 1,200 ton per day uranium mill, the following re- sults were reported per year: 0.046 deaths, 17.1 injuries, and 1U.S., Atomic Energy Commission, Directorate of Licensing, Fuels and Materials. Environmental Survey of the Uranium Fuel Cycle, WASH-1248. Washington, D.C.: Atomic Energy Commission, 1972, p. B-22. 2Ibid., p. B-23. 3For a detailed description of a uranium mill, see White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Energy Resource Develop- ment Systems Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Pro- tection Agency, forthcoming. 4AEC. Uranium Fuel Cycle. Accident data are not availa- ble. 5 Ibid. blbid., p. B-27. 912 ------- 73 man days lost.1 With changes in the design of facilities and possible improvements in worker safety programs, these statistics are likely to change. 10.8.7 Summary of Occupational Health and Safety Of the energy technologies considered in this study, under- ground mining of coal presents the greatest occupational safety risks--significantly more risky than underground mining of other ores. When considered on the basis of equivalent amounts of coal produced, underground coal mining compared with surface coal min- ing results in at least five times more deaths, injuries, and work days lost. However, recent legislation is expected to lower the occupational safety risks associated with underground coal mining. The most severe accidents in oil, gas, and geothermal fields are due to blowouts and leaks which can cause explosions. The best known and best documented occupational health risks are respiratory disorders (black lung disease) in underground coal miners and lung cancer in underground uranium miners. Black lung disease affects more than one-third of underground coal miners and lung cancer (from radiation exposure) is expected in one out of every six uranium miners within 10 years after prolonged exposure. Both of these occupational health risks are expected to decline with new, tighter standards. Other occupational health risks are less certain; some are cancer related. Synthetic fuels production produces known carcino- gens and concentrates them as chars and tars in process residues. Carcinogens are present in raw shale oil and raw synthesis gas. Workers will be exposed to these and can assimilate them through inhalation or skin contact. Exposure levels are highly uncertain and safe exposure levels have not been determined. Consistent data useful for comparisons among technologies are generally not available. Some data vary on an annual basis due to major accidents. Data are also difficult to interpret on a risk per individual or per Btu basis. A major problem that emerges has been obtaining comparable data on death and accident risks useful for alerting policymakers to critical phases in western energy fuel cycles. :U.S., Atomic Energy Commission. The Safety of Nuclear Power Reactors (Light Water-Cooled) and Related Facilities, Final Draft, WASH-1250. Springfield, Va.: National Technical Information Service, 1973. 913 ------- CHAPTER 11 REGIONAL IMPACTS 11.1 INTRODUCTION This chapter reports the results of analyses of the aggregate impacts of western energy development. That is, whereas Chapters 4 through 9 discussed the impacts of hypothetical developments at six specific sites and Chapter 10 discussed impacts that are likely in the area surrounding a particular energy facility, this chapter assesses the effects of energy development on the entire eight-state study area. Impact categories include regional air impacts, water impacts on river basins, social and economic im- pacts on states or the entire region, ecological impacts of a regional nature, and impacts of energy transportation systems. The chapter begins with a discussion of the assumptions on the extent of energy development that provides a basis for the impact analyses. 11.1.1 Location of Development Regional impacts result from the overall levels and rates of development likely for the entire eight-state region. Impacts also depend upon the distribution of the different energy re- sources in the region. Coal is found in all eight states as shown in Figure 11-1. The largest concentrations are found in the Northern Great Plains. Oil shale deposits are concentrated in the Green River Formation in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. These are shown in Figure 11-2. The largest deposits of uranium are found in New Mexico and Wyoming, although some uranium may be found in each of the eight states, as shown in Figure 11-3. Crude oil and natural gas reserves are largest in New Mexico and Wyoming, although both of these resources are also found in Colorado, Utah, and North and South Dakota. Areas of geothermal resources are still being discovered, but resources have been primarily identified in the western half of the region. High temperature geothermal resource areas are shown in Figure 11-4. These general patterns of resource distribution, and more detailed patterns described in subsequent sections provide a mechanism for locating impacts within the region. 914 ------- Coal FIGURE 11-1: GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF COAL RESOURCES IN EIGHT WESTERN STATES Oil Shale FIGURE 11-2: GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF OIL SHALE RESOURCES IN EIGHT WESTERN STATES 915 ------- Uranium FIGURE 11-3: GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF URANIUM RESOURCES IN EIGHT 'WESTERN STATES Geothermal FIGURE 11-4: GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES IN EIGHT WESTERN STATES 916 ------- 11.1.2 Levels of Development Stanford Research Institute's (SRI) interfuel competition model was used to construct two energy resource development sce- narios for the eight states corresponding to two projections of national energy demands between the present and 2000.l These pro- jections of energy supply from the West are used in this report as a vehicle for assessing impacts. A representative range of energy supplies provides the basis for anticipating the potential extent and magnitude of impacts. Although based on informed inter- fuel competition modeling, the levels of energy production in these scenarios should not be interpreted as predictions of what is likely to occur. The SRI model considers various combinations of energy resources that could supply energy demands at a particular loca- tion at a particular time. Estimates are made of the costs of delivered energy in different fuel forms from various sources, and an economic analysis is used to determine the quantity pro- vided by each source. For example, demand for distillate fuel oil in Chicago could be supplied from: crude oil produced in Wyoming and piped to Chicago for refining; oil shale mined, retorted, and upgraded to synthetic crude oil in Colorado, then piped to Chicago for refining; or coal mined and converted to synthetic crude oil in Colorado, then piped to Chicago for re- fining. Each of these "paths" as well as others, must be analyzed as part of the entire U.S. energy system to determine the fraction of demand to be met by each resource at each location. The two demand levels assumed to create the two supply scenarios were SRI's Nominal and Low Demand cases. The Nominal case assumed a demand 30 percent higher than the Ford Foundation Technical Fix case.2 (The Ford Foundation's Technical Fix case was an attempt to anticipate the results of a variety of voluntary and mandatory energy conservation measures.) The Nominal Demand case scenario results in an energy supply of 156.9 quads (Q) and an end use demand of 79.98 Q for the year 2000. The Low Demand case corresponds to the Ford Foundation's Technical Fix Scenario. It results in an annual growth rate of approximately 2.1 percent, !Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Develop- ment Study: Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford Research Institute, 1976. 2 Ford Foundation, Energy Policy Project. A Time to Choose: America's Energy Future. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1974. 917 ------- with an energy supply of 129.5 Q and an end use demand of 67.97 Q for the year 2000. The SRI model was used at the time the impact scenarios were being formulated (1975) because the SRI model was the most readily available and well documented, it projected energy demands to the year 2000, it analyzed multiple demand scenarios, and it disaggregated geographically to the area of interest in this study. The model did, however, have limitations which included the fol- lowing : • The contribution predicted from oil shale grows very rapidly in the 1990-2000 decade (from five to forty-two 100,000 barrels per day (bbl/day) plants in the Nominal case) although it now seems unlikely that development at that rate could be accomplished. • Oil shale was considered to be produced solely from sur- face mines, and in situ oil shale retorting was not con- sidered. • Contributions from geothermal resources were not included. • Western coal was assumed to be of one composition and heating value throughout the West. Actually, wide varia- tions exist, such as between North Dakota lignite and Kaiparowits bituminous. • Only limited account was taken of the availability of equip- ment and personnel to accomplish the development indicated. As noted later in this chapter, both could tend to con- strain developments to levels below those indicated. • Installation of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) control equipment (stack gas scrubbers) was not considered on electrical power generating plants using western coal, and all coal was considered to be produced from surface mines . These assumptions and omissions constrain the utility of the model, and modifications discussed below will attempt to deal with them. The oil shale levels of development forecast appear too high because the commercial oil shale developments that were expected in the mid-1970 's have failed to materialize. The only Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Develop- ment Study; Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif. : Stanford Research Institute, 1976. Losses within the system account for the difference between the supply and end use demand numbers . 918 ------- oil shale development plan that has been approved by the Secretary of the Interior is Occidental and Ashland's in situ development of Colorado Tract B. This development is predicted to produce 57,000 bbl/day of shale oil by 1983. Development plans for" Colorado Tract A call for j.n situ retorting, and a federally spon- sored 100,000 bbl/day surface retort facility may be built, but the construction times for these facilities make it unlikely that the levels of development will exceed the following: 1990—2 levels: one and five 100,000 bbl/day facilities 2000—2 levels: 10 and 25 100,000 bbl/day facilities Thus, the SRI scenarios are modified to include these levels of oil shale development. Levels of geothermal development are likely to remain small in comparison to total electric power production until the year 2000. Assuming a national production level of geothermal-based electric power of between 2,500 and 5,000 megawatts-electric (MWe) in 1985 and between 7,000 and 50,000 MWe in 2000, l it seems reason- able to forecast the development of 100 to 200 MWe by 1985 and 700 to 5,000 by 2000 in the eight-state study area. The 100 to 200 MWe are based on planned developments in the Jemez Mountains in New Mexico and in the vicinity of Roosevelt, Utah. The 700 to 5,000 MWe are 10 percent of the level of national production es- timated for 2000. This is approximately the percentage of U.S. geothermal resources located in the eight-state area. Thus, the SRI scenarios are adjusted for these levels of geothermal develop- ment in the eight-state study area. Dealing with the assumptions concerning the coal character- istics and levels of emission controls made in the SRI model requires consideration of recent changes in emission control :These are consensus estimates from Loveland, Walter D., Bernard I. Spinrad, and, C.H. Wang, eds. Magnitude and Deploy- ment Schedule of Energy Resources; Proceedings of a Conference Held on July 21-23, 1975, in Portland, Oregon, under the Sponsorship of the Energy Research and Development Administra- tion, Pacific Northwest Regional Commission, and Oregon State University Office of Energy Research and Development!Corvallis, Oreg.: Oregon State University, 1975; and U.S., Energy Research and Development Administration, Division of Geothermal Energy. Definition Report; Geothermal Energy Research, Development and Demonstration Program. Springfield, Va. : National Technical Information Service, 1975. These estimates do not include direct thermal uses such as space heating and crop drying. 919 ------- regulations as a result of the Clean Air Act (CAA) Amendments of 1977. The Low Demand and Nominal cases in the SRI model call, respectively, for 970 million and 1,150 million tons of coal to be produced nationally in 1985. Without, a change in current policies, the National Energy Plan1 would require production of approximately 1,080 million tons of coal annually in 1985. How- ever, the plan proposes policy changes which would have the net effect of boosting national coal production in 1985 to about 1,280 million tons per year (MMtpy). The inclusion in the 1977 CAA Amendments of a "best avail- able control technology" (BACT) requirement for new, large coal burning facilities complicates matters further because the re- quirement can be expected to shift some coal production away from the West after 1985. The requirement that all coal-fired power plants be equipped with scrubbers would largely eliminate the advantage of using low sulfur western coal in most regions of the country. Demand through 1985 is not likely to be signifi- cantly affected because of existing long-term contracts but demand for western coal after 1985 would be strongly affected. One study performed at Argonne National Laboratory estimated the effect that alternative BACT definitions will have on regional coal markets.2 In that study all alternative BACT scenarios are projected to have substantial effects on western coal production; especially affected were Northern Great Plains coal shipments to the middle regions of the nation. In 1990 the production of Northern Great Plains coal ranged from 202 to 239 MMtpy for alternative BACT definitions compared to a base case (which assumed a continuation of New Source Performance Standards [NSPS]) production of 388 MMtpy. These compare with 1976 production levels of 46 million tons. Production of "other western" coal was largely unaffected by BACT according to the Argonne study. On the basis of these results, it appears that even SRI's Low Demand case will be too high for western coal production after 1985 if BACT is implemented. The Nominal case probably repre- sents a reasonable upper bound on development if less stringent sulfur controls are imposed and if the Administration's proposal requiring utilities to shift from oil and natural gas to coal is adopted. The projections for the two cases are given in Table 11-1 and 11-2, and include the modifications indicated above for oil 1U.S., Executive Office of the President, Energy Policy and Planning. The National Energy Plan. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1977. 2Krohm, G.C., C.D. Dux, and J.S. Van Kuiken. Effects on Regional Coal Markets of the "Best Available Control Technology" Policy for Sulfur Emissions, National Coal Utilization Assess- ment. Argonne, 111.: Argonne National Laboratory, 1977. 920 ------- CJ § w X Sw H« H§ ug £\| ^ UMBER IRED It ••? rH in r- en rH O o 0 fN 0 Cft en rH Ll CO C^ I— i o CD C* —1 U") 2 O o o (N O s rH b~) a? CTi rH O CD in f~ i rH CTi CN rH o in in \£> -tf i-H m o cn l-H !— I r- CN ^ co m m in tn CM en «r o CN r- m -v tN ro CT< ^O CO T~~- •T PI m t%i CN m in co ro (N ro O (N tn CD r- cn °; o m OJ fH m OJ r- rH s rvj rH in rH \£> CN 0 rH Coald "^ Mines Powder River Rocky Mountain - r~ m rsi oo r- rH rH rH rH rH m r-t CM r— ys r* -H in rH rH rH U3 U~l \£> o in in rH ? rH rH CO ^D t>J 01 «T in l-J O rH i— 1 i-H -H rH VjP (^ CO CO O Direct Use Unit Train Powder River Rocky Mountain Slurry Pipeline Powder River Rocky Mountain r~- m (N ^ «r ro ro O O O O 000 000 •H rH rH O> f^ fN •q- -.?. (-- rH M3 (^ l£- rH ro ro o o o o o (M (N O CO r~ rH V£> 0 (N o o o o Gasification Powder River Rocky Mountain CN CN O 0 0 O 0 0 O O 0 0 o o o ^O ^ tN \£> ^O O rH rH m m o o o Tp CO rH 0 OJ 0 fN O o o 0 Liquefaction Powder River Rocky Mountain ro co in fN rH CO ro in rH rH in rH ^T rH rH co m ro rH O rH in ro fN rH f- '«J1 CJ rH ro ro O er\ -v in rH rH rH O rH co ro in H rH O H Ch M r- ro H M O rH «3 ^ KO Ch U~) in «r rH m m m ------- •a o u o S H £•» M _ <" [t, ^ bs Z OS H is 44 1 o M CJ R 8s a. — tn w b £ O O g § ** f-( U b x O Z o M EH B Q a< en D < H H 0 0 0 rN o c^ C •H 3 rH 0) >1 (TJ O X X S U tn o o rH •H O C^ rH CO r- m T CN VD ^O T rH fN m m O m rH (N rH i-H r- m TJ- 0 fN CO rH m m cr> m in -H m co rH m m cr\ m in O fN CO rH m in o\ m in m ^r r co m in 0 rH fN 0 m rH r- o • m en rH fN C •H V-i ffl D 4-J > c rH -H 3 §"-? QJ ^ £ TJ rX m D fN O fN rH rH mom fN fN mom fN fN fN O rN fN fN cn o cn rH rH CO CO in o m O 0 CO O CO rH rH CO O CO m m CO O CO r- r- CO O CO ro 03 rH fN 0 VD rN o \D fN m ro fN rH f^. rH C •H to (C 1) -U — > c CD -H 3 1C S JJ CD >i g?3 £OO QJ r^ to (0 O m o m VO O >£> CO O CO CO O CO r- o r- m in r o ^ rH rH m o in m ro 0 O CO O CO VO VD CO O CO r- fN fN s m CN m r- ^r rN 0 rH rH rN rH ID rH rH .H C o -H r (C C) O -P 3 -H 3 u £ u i •HT3 ^ JJ S U W O O d> o- ot E S rH O rH r- r fN O C ••H 3 K O rH S P Q) >i CD S 0 o 01 o ion tons of western rH rH •H E o \D •. rH •r4 0 »+H O to CD i— 1 rl rl a S3 C o • H rH rH •H E fN f-^ rH ^1 rH 0) Jj 5 s X o a a , to co rH ro re tj 3 CD re iH a 3 jj cu re c c O <4H O — -p 10 01 ~ CD JJ UH •H C O 3 -rt £1 i-H 3 ro u E rl C co o •C -H JJ rH rH X -rl 10 >H •rl JJ JJ •rl CD rl C m o - o o rH * rH n re o 0 U re jj re •o c o •H jj ro T3 C 3 O b •O rl O b •O C re CD CO re o rH re c •H E O z CD JJ 3 JJ •H JJ CO C M jr. u )H rO 1) to CJ OS •O rl O c ro jj c o •a CD to re jj 3 a 3 O >* CD to 3 jj U (U IH -rH •C rH re 8 rl O UH CO 0) 3 1— 1 re jj 3 a c M .O t) ; unit trains and slurry ent) ; liquefaction, MWe) (70 percent); oil ; gas (methane) , 250 herraal, 100 MWe (70 percen C u — _. jj CD k JJ 0 O CD O C CD iH CVH CD Cn CD rl 0 OlO JJ rl - CM U CD -~ O rH C H >, CD O CD ^~ ro i CM o TJ tO •" rl ~ JJ 0) x b jj CD a a 1 ro o CD re 41 O 0 >iT! >i-H O \ J3 -UH -H IH 3 m o a CX - IH TJ c a o 10 rl O O 0 c re -n > o o TJ JJ jj c re >H o re w CD o c JJ CD Urn o to c •H CD 10 * rH c tr c I-H l-H O O -rl •rl .rl rH JJ O 6 rH re rH U O CJ in -H -rt O TJ 6 rl 0 3 •. 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(1) -P C - 3 CO O — KH CD •• -H JJ E CD -u c e o ^ re CD 3 T! re cj o -ri •H M C — CD -H a H -P e to 3 C 3 re o ai to — • -~ in re — JJ CD ^~> ^- C Pi en JJ >i CD -i c re o o O CD 1Q rl 0 JJ U \ CD rH CJ rl rH &—' ro 01 J3 MH CL^Q o >i — CM re •C3 0 — T3 re o >, o i-i ro x vj I-H — -a ro tn TJ DJ T3 >1 rl\ c a CD rH jj re -U O..Q CD CO % CO IIH CD i-H 0 N in CD O CJ •rl CS rl O -rl CO rl ^ J3 - ro o 3 >i 10 J2 0 U JJ CD rH •H C 0 E rH -H O - O -H rH O 4H lh ------- (N I § 2" W u s« s§ y P 2 fr< Ss fts 0 2 •JUMBER I RED I ~ D O e K z o M E-< U £ Cu — • H w cn D S feg Z PH M E-i O < 2 &, J3 2 z o M FH PRODUC C/3 P J < s H o o o CJ o O~i tTi rH in CO Ctt rH O CO en rH in r- CTl rH 0 o OJ 0 o\ CTi rH m cr\ rH O cn rH in en rH o o 0 (N O cn en rH in CO CTi rH 0 CO en i— i m r^ en rH ENERGY TYPE ^o m fN (N CN \& en r^ rH Cn rH r-H rH in ixi en r- rH rH CO rn m ri rH en o en rH rH CN rH rH r^ CN in in in "3- -V rH rr r I-H >x) in ^3- kD f~~ r rn o CN en CN ^r r~ m CN <~> O CN tn co r* rH in vo CO m rr fN O (N 0 ^r r- rH «J n m rH UD CN O rH Coald Mines Powder River Rocky Mountains rH i— 1 rH rH O O"> i-H VD in -H rH Cn CO rH «T HI .— 1 r^ in CN iH i— i o • r- 1 U"l rH p" ^" in U"l in ^ ID fN CO Cn Cn rH Cn CN ^- «• m ^r ^r o co co o m in o rH o ^r ^> r-t r- ^r ^- a- m ^- m V O \D T rH O rH en cr> fN ya rN en f> CM CN ON rO (N CT> rH (N fN O CO O CO m (Ti «* «H co r- .-t CO rH [^ CN 01 m i-t in ^r r-i 1^3 m m o cr. I-H rH fH rH -J3 X> CO CO O Direct Use Unit Train Powder River Rocky Mountains Slurry Pipeline Powder River Rocky Mountains CN in rH r r m m r ^ 0 0 o o o rH rH O 01 •** !-^ f> O £> o tr ^f <7l r~ 0 IT) O O o o o Liquefaction Powder River Rocky Mountains rH rH m o n r-H rH fN O> rO 1— ( K£> r rsi rH O rH CO "31 ^1 ro O> -fl" fN rH cn r^ r>j o m m O CO m in rH rH O ^ rH (N r- -r rH 0 0 rH 0 rH m in r rH o I1 LO CO fl o ^ ro •^ o rO Electrical Generation Powder River Rocky Mountains 923 ------- CD 3 C •H -P G O U (N I u Z O ^3 S" £« M -^ H\| u c ss fc-s o _ 05 H is a: D = 3 o u en z o M H U g §* tn -^ • H W W • w •=> s 0 0 K 0 H frH U g ^ o CTION ( PRODU w D )J < H S o o 0 OJ o CT1 Oi ^H in 00 a> .-i o CO c^ rH LO r- cn r-t o o o CN O cn CT\ c- 1 IT) CO cr- r- 1 O CO Oi H in r- cn (—1 0 0 0 (N O cr> C^ t— t i/l CO Ch i-H o CO en 1— 1 m r- en i— i ENERGY TYPE LO O IP i-« O »-( o o o o o o o o o o o o 0 0 ^H rH O O i-H rH O 0 0 0 0 i— 1 --t O 0 rH rH ir er> 0 r- r- r- o r- cr> ci r^ o r- >i> ^D CO O CO r- r- CO O CO CTi SO r- rH r-H 0 ^ r-j rH rs] in CN CN rH m rj i— < r- 0> rH Gas (Methane) Powder River Rocky Mountains m o in <£> O ^D CO O CO CO O CO r- o r- o o •r o r m m m O m in tn vo o vo (N tN CO O CO V£3 \D CO O CO CN \o fN fN r^- m in fN \£> f ^T fN \£> rH rH fN rH tf> ^ rH Domestic Crude Oil Powder River Rocky Mountains o o o rH rH rH O rH rH O rH o o o o o o 1 0 C 000 rH rH o o CO O C2 r—\| fN t ^ 0 1 1 Geotherma I Powder River Rocky Mountains c a 4- W a o U) c; o 4-J c: C) •H i-l rH •rH E: O VJD n. rH -rH O y-i O 1.0 i-H •u T3 ,Q C 0 -H ,H iH •H E \~~ i— 1 ^i —1 Q) 4J (IS £ H X 0 a a rfl to to rH rrj 2 CTrH 0) fO in O 3 4J QJ fO C C o 0 -- 4J W 0) — Q) -P UH -H C U P -H rH 3 HJ O £ n c QJ O rC -H -P rH rH £-H to JH -H 4J jj •H 0 In C m o - o o rH * rH i: 10 o a u 10 4-1 03 •O C o -H 4J 10 C 3 O In •a o t. •o c (0 0) to to u 'C c nJ g 01 a o j 01 4-1 3 4J -H 4J in c M £ O (0 01 QJ IX TS O 14-1 C (0 4J w c o •0 0) in 10 ca re . in 01 c 4-1 O ^ o to 0) 3 rH 10 4-1 a 3 o .^ 01 in 3 4J O 01 rH •H 13 rH m o u w 0 14-1 K 0) 3 rH t! 4J 3 D, C M XI t) ; unit trains and slurry ent); liquefaction, 100,000 percent); oil shale, 100,001 , 250 million cubic feet pe. 'e (70 percent) . c u — g o) ±4 o o) S o 01 r- c QJ ~ X O o\ 3 D o — s E - 0 -- — U rH >1 -H ^ ic u in ^ rO -H (0 -P --~ M Cn U >l U 4-1 0) 0,0) U — rH 4-1 & O -~ 01 frH 4J 1 4J QJ C rH — O 1 OJ 10 QJ U3 O E (0 4J 01 01 0) U to O.J3 >i-H 3 o -P r-l 3 (Jll^ QJ 0] O QJ °~ &1 a E •O QJ - in tH o A; — C 10 0 10 -P O T! 0 U C 4J C - 3 0) (0 ro O U C 4-1 iH M O W * rH OJ •H c o) a rH C 0 >! rH O -H 0 • H -H 4-1 ^ O £ M (0 O >H ^H ^ "^^ in -H Q) l-i e c is >i v QJ 0) (0 in o a> ^'O QJ LO \ C f^J rH ^ rH -H 10 QJ X) E - O &.Q C r^ O h in o .. -H 4J C 0 QJ 4-J CJ O O H 10 0) 4-1 - 10 U M O -H 01 O O T3 IH O rH Q) -r~l .» O E 10 ~- » - 3 10 -P rH rH in O! C -H in o) ~ o as - U --I ^~ i-l 0) QJ W 4-1 OJ 3 13 IH c a1" 3 0 OJ l-l 4-1 U 0 E U O r-l O^ 3 fO QJ ^- -H U M-l O. C -H ^ CO -P •0 C >i U W TO 0 10 3 QJ O iH -O G .H — \ - O rH •— • T3 TJ >ija -t-1 c &.£ d •* (0 4-1 — QJ '— E o j W £ >i M C 0) re O O N m tJ 04 O •H (N l"t to in o QJ ^ QJ en C^ >i m a — JJ QJ 0 -H q in >tO rH -H rH (TJ rH •rH rH 0) T) s-' U O i-l \ rrj Cli i~t ""^ ^ fri -H ro XI ro u £ij X! -Q TJ , rH n3 O U £ O u-i c Q) 0 •a x: ». QJ ^ a, E 10 X OJ ^ o yn ... OJ en 10 3 .H 0) 4-1 O U-t o 0) 3 (0 U 0) rH 10 4-1 O 4J 0 4-1 - r^ •C ro 4J o c o •0 in 0) -H IH O Oi 01 4-1 10 o Xl 3 W rH 10 O u •D 924 ------- shale and geothermal development. As used in the SRI model, the "Powder River Region" refers to the states of Montana, Wyoming, and North and South Dakota;l the "Rocky Mountain Region" includes New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado. Allocations of national nuclear production were based on present production rates. The number of facilities required was calculated by assuming the facility sizes and capacity factors shown in Tables 11-1 and 11-2 and determining how many facilities of this size will be needed for the total production indicated. Adjusting total energy supply for the reduction in number of oil shale facilities and the addition of geothermal, the supply for the Nominal Demand case is reduced to 155.1 Q and for Low Demand to 124.0 Q. In the SRI model, the geographical distribution of develop- ment was carried out dividing the western states into only two subregions, the Powder River and the Rocky Mountain areas. For some of our impact analyses, it was necessary to disaggregate further to a state. The number of facilities by state used in the analysis is given in Table 11-3. For the near future (to 1985), disaggregation was done on the basis of the locations of announced energy facility developments.2 For later times (1990 and 2000), development was assumed to be proportional to the proved reserves in each state. Disaggregation based on resource levels was done only to provide a basis for impact analyses. Actual siting of facilities depends upon a number of other factors, including site characteristics, land availability and several legal and institutional factors. 11.1.3 Development Options Although energy resources are located in the West, options exist- for where these resources are converted to end use forms. Options will depend upon the resource being handled. Oil shale must be retorted very near the mine mouth because the yield of the ore is small (high quality oil shale yields about 30 gallons per ton of ore) and transportation costs per unit of energy are consequently high. Subsequent processing of the shale oil 1 In the SRI model, the Powder River region includes the Powder River Basin and the Fort Union Basin. With several smaller geologic basins, this area may be considered equivalent to the Northern Great Plains region. 2Denver Federal Executive Board, Committee on Energy and- Environment, Subcommittee to Expedite Energy Development; and Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee. A Listing of Pro- posed, Planned or Under Construction Energy Projects in Federal Region VIII; A Joint Report.August 1975.(Unpublished report.) 925 ------- TABLE 11-3: NUMBER OF FACILITIES BY STATE IN THE LOW AND NOMINAL DEMAND SCENARIOS STATE Colorado Power plants Modified in situ Uranium Natural gas TOSCO II New Mexico Natural gas Crude oil Uranium Power plants Geothermal Gasification Utah Power plants Uranium TOSCO II oil shale Montana Power plants Gasification Liquefaction Wyoming Power plants Uranium Gasification Liquefaction North Dakota Power plants Gasification 1975 19 7 4 1 3 1980 LOW 1 0 0 0 0 22 8 9 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 NOMINAL 1 0 0 0 0 22 8 10 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 6 0 0 2 0 1990 LOW 1 1 1 0 0 21 6 19 1 1 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 3 12 0 0 4 2 NOMINAL 2 3 2 8 2 15 6 22 1 10 0 2 2 0 5 1 0 2 16 0 0 6 2 2000 LOW 1 3 2 4 2 9 5 31 1 10 1 1 2 0 5 9 1 3 22 5 1 6 13 NOMINAL 2 13 3 4 10 8 5 42 1 71 2 2 3 2 6 15 1 3 31 9 1 9 21 926 ------- produced in the retort may be at a distant site because the characteristics of the shale oil are comparable to crude oil, and pipeline transportation is economical. Geothermal energy conversion to electricity must be done near the wellhead because of heat transfer losses in transporta- tion. As a consequence, geothermal power plants tend to be smaller than fossil fuel plants because of the areal extent of well fields. Uranium ore is also low quality, so that the first step in conversion, milling to yellowcake, is done in the vicinity of the mine. Other steps in the nuclear fuel cycle were not con- sidered in this study. Oil and gas are both easily and economically transported by pipeline in virtually the form in which they come out of the ground. At the present time, most crude oil refining is carried on outside of the eight states considered in our study. Since the oil and gas resources in the region are limited, we assume that this continues to be the case. Coal, then, is the only resource considered in the study which may be converted or processed at the mine mouth, a demand center, or at some other intermediate location at which other required resources (such as water or labor) are available or regulations are attractive. As discussed in Chapter 1, site specific analyses of the impacts of coal conversion facilities were carried out only for locations in the vicinity of mines. Although most of the utilization of western coal is likely to be outside the eight-state region, analysis of impacts at these de- mand center sites was not carried out. Siting at intermediate locations was also not analyzed, although sites in South Dakota near the Missouri River appear to be under consideration for western coal processing.1 In addition to locational options, different rates of devel- opment of western energy resources can be considered. Rates of development at a specific location make a substantial difference in the social, economic, and political impacts at that location, but do not substantially change air and water impacts. Region- ally, social and economic impacts are also heavily affected by rate of development, and in addition, impacts may arise because ^orsentino, J.S. Projects to Expand Fuel Sources in Western States: Survey of Planned or Proposed Coal, Oil Shale, Tar Sands, Uranium, and Geothermal Supply Expansion Projects, and Related Infrastructure, in States West of the Mississippi River (as of May 1976) , Bureau of Mines Information Circular 8719.Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1976, p. 144. 927 ------- of bottlenecks in the provision of materials and equipment required for facility construction or operation. There may also be ecological impacts which are dependent on the rate of development; for example, plant and animal species may respond differently depending on the time allowed to adapt to changed surroundings resulting from new facilities. Chapters 4-9 in this report presented the results of site specific impact analyses and include the residuals and resource requirements data needed to perform the impact analysis for each facility (i.e., data on emissions, effluents, water requirements, land use, labor requirements, and capital cost). These same data are used in this chapter, aggregated at the regional level. Neither geothermal development nor enhanced recovery of oil were considered in the site specific analyses, but residuals data for them are given in Chapter 3 and these technologies are included in the scenarios in this chapter. 11.2 AIR IMPACTS 11.2.1 Introduction This section estimates regional air impacts which may re- sult from energy developments in the eight western states. The analysis is carried out for the two development scenarios (Low and Nominal case) described in the previous section. Regional impacts discussed include effects of total emissions and possible inadvertent weather modification, with the focus on total emissions. 11.2.2 Existing Conditions A. Air Quality Table 11-4 gives national ambient air quality standards for the six criteria pollutants1 and estimates of average back- ground levels for these pollutants in the West. Based on the limited data available, ambient air quality in the eight-state study area appears good when considered in the context of annual average concentrations of criteria pollutants. However, short- term (24-hour) particulate concentrations periodically exceed the federal primary standard in some areas. This violation occurs because of windblown dust. This is generally considered to be a natural condition resulting from the arid climate, but Criteria pollutants are those for which federal ambient air quality standards have been established. They include par- ticulates, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, photochemical oxidants, hydrocarbons, and carbon monoxide. 928 ------- TABLE 11-4: REGIONAL AIR QUALITY AND NATIONAL STANDARDS' (micrograras per cubic meter) POLLUTANT Particulates Annual geometric mean Maximum 24-hour Sulfur Dioxide Annual geometric mean Maximum 24-hour Maximum 3-hour Nitrogen Dioxide Annual geometric mean Photochemical Oxidants Maximum 1-hour Hydrocarbons Maximum 3-hour (6-9 a.m.) BACKGROUND LEVELb 12 - 40 600 10 - 20 10 60 - 180d 130f AMBIENT STANDARDS PRIMARY 260° 80 365° NA 100 160° 160° SECONDARY 150° NA NA 1,300° 100 160° 160° NA = not applicable a40 C.F.R. 50 (1976). These levels represent the range of measurements available across the eight-state study area. Q Not to be exceeded more than once a year. Oxidant concentrations vary greatly by location. Peak oxidant values typ- ically occur during the summer and daily maxima occur during late afternoon. Daily maxima in the Northern Great Plains have been documented at 160 to 180 micrograms per cubic meter (yg/m3) and in the Central Rockies at 60 to 80 yg/m3. See Teknekron, Inc., Energy and Environmental Engineering Division. An Integrated Technology Assessment of Electric Utility Energy Systems, Briefing Materials; Air Quality Impact Methodology and Results—Regional Study and Subregional Problem Areas: Southwest, Rocky Mountains, Northern Great Plains. Berkeley, Calif.: Teknekron, 1978, pp. 88-89. g The HC standard is not a strict standard as is the case with the other criteria pollutants; rather, it primarily serves as a guideline for achiev- ing oxidant standards. Annual average. No short-term measurements are available for HC; annual concentrations are considered good indicators of baseline concentrations. 929 ------- it has been suggested that human activity has destabilized the ground surface so that dust is more easily released.1 In addition, oxidant background levels (short-term) in the Northern Great Plains have been documented at 160 to 180 micro- grams per cubic meter (yg/m3) (Table 11-4), values which equal or exceed the 1-hour federal standard (160 yg/m3). Short-term measurements of background hydrocarbon (HC) concentrations are not available, but longer term averages approach the standard (Table 11-4). The extent to which high background oxidant and HC levels are caused by human activity or natural conditions is uncertain. The fact that high HC concentrations have been recorded in sparsely populated areas of Colorado2 indicates that natural sources of HC may be important.3 In northwestern Colorado, natural sources include vegetation (significant emissions have been measured for some vegetation indigenous to the area1) and evaporation from subsurface petroleum deposits. B. Meteorology The meteorological conditions which govern dispersion of pollutants and long range transport of pollutants are especially important in an assessment of likely air quality impacts due to resource development. Dispersion potential improves with larger mixing depths5 and wind speeds. It is generally best during spring and summer because of high mixing depths and poorest during the winter due to low mixing depths. Geographi- cally, the southeastern part of the region has the best ^.S., Department of the Interior, National Park Service, Denver Service Center. Analysis of Kaiparowits; Power Plant Impact on National Recreation Resources. Denver, Colo.: Denver Service Center, 1976, p. 44. 2Palomba, Joseph, Jr., comments in the "Report on the Fifth APCA Government Affairs Seminar, A New Look-at the Old Clean Air Act." Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, Vol. 27 (June 1977) , p. 529. 3Fosdick, George E., and Spencer A. Bullard. Air Quality Control for Oil Shale Tract C-b. Denver, Colo.: C-b Shale Oil Project, 1976, p. 6. ^Rasmussen, Reinhold A. "What Do the Hydrocarbons from Trees Contribute to Air Pollution?" Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, Vol. 22 (July 1972), pp. 537-43. 5Mixing depth is the height from the ground to the upward boundary of pollutant dispersion. 930 ------- dispersion potential because of typically high mixing depths and high wind speeds. Mixing depths in the northern part of the region tend to be lower, while wind speeds tend to be higher in the eastern part than in the western part of the region. Air stagnation can cause serious dispersion problems in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) during the winter because large masses of dense, cold air may be trapped between the Rocky and Sierra Nevada Mountains. Sharp terrain differences on the western slope of the Rockies exacerbate this problem by trapping air in deep valleys. In contrast to the UCRB, the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB) has much less air stagnation because of stronger winds and less rugged terrain. Long range transport of certain pollutants (e.g., sulfates and fine particulates) can create problems considerable distances from energy facilities. The areas impacted by this long range transport depend upon the trajectories of air masses which con- tain the sulfate or fine particulate pollutant. Current know- ledge of air mass trajectories suggests that, during summer, trajectories of air masses following fronts may carry air from the Powder River Basin to the Denver area; trajectories of masses that precede fronts may carry air to Denver from the Four Corners area. The air from the Four Corners area, however, is likely to lose much of its pollutant load over the Rockies because of rainout. 11.2.3 Emissions Two separate analyses of air emissions from energy develop- ment, in the eight-state area have been carried out. In the first analysis, the emissions which result from the energy facilities, as projected through the year 2000 in the Low and Nominal Demand scenarios, are evaluated. These emission levels include those associated with energy related population increases. In the second analysis, growth in air emissions in the West through the year 2000 are examined where other economic sectors (in addition to energy facilities) are accounted for. A. Emissions From Energy Facilities Aggregate emissions from the energy facilities depend on the mix of technologies and the composition of the coal used at the various coal facilities. Table 11-5 gives emissions for each technology, given the coal compositions assumed for each area. These are aggregated for two subregions in accordance with the number of facilities projected in the Low and Nominal Demand scenarios (the number of each kind of facility in each subregion is given in Table 11-1 and 11-2). Population related air emissions are estimated using coefficients for each criteria 931 ------- TABLE 11-5: EMISSIONS FROM ENERGY FACILITIES' (thousands of tons per year) FACILITY 3000 MWe Power Plantb 75 percent load factor 250 MMscfd Lurgi Gasification plant 90 percent load factor 250 MMscfd Synthane Gasification Plant 90 percent load factor 100,000 bbl/day Synthoil Liquefaction Plant 90 percent load factor 100,000 bbl/day TOSCO II Oil Shale Retort 90 percent load factor 100,000 bbl/day Modified In Situ Oil Shale Processing 90 percent load factor 1000 mtpy Uranium Mill 100,000 bbl/day Oil Extraction 90 percent load factor 250 MMscfd Natural Gas 90 percent load factor 100 MWe Geothermal 75 percent load factor STATE Utah New Mexico Colorado Wyoming Montana North Dakota New Mexico Wyoming Montana North Dakota New Mexico Wyoming Montana North Dakota Mew Mexico Wyoming Montana Colorado Colorado New Mexico Wyoming Colorado Wyoming PARTICIPATES 6.90 16.49 3.65 3.93 9.17 9.89 N N N N 0.03 0.03 0. 03 0.03 4.94 1.90 1.90 6.78 0.51 - 2.50 0.17 0.17 0.002 0.008 NA S02 19. 05 32.06 19.16 21.15 45. 99 45.49 NOX 49.27 - 82. 12 62.09 - 103.48 47.05 - 78.41 51. 94 - 86. 57 62.09 - 103. 48 69.26 - 115.43 2.03 \| 2.56 2.03 2.03 2.03 13. 89 13. 89 13.89 13.89 4.62 3.69 3.69 2.76 1.20- 2.37 0.004 0.004 0. 17 1. 84 0.69° 2.56 2. 56 2.56 19. 91 19. 91 19. 91 19.91 22.74 18.20 18.20 14. 98 4.07 - 12.29 0.001 HC 1.38 1.72 1.30 1.44 1.72 2.14 0.18 3.18 0. 18 0. 18 0.37 0.37 0. 37 0.37 6.65 5.32 5.32 8. 04 0. 83- 0. 90 N 0.001 \| N 0.14 2.58 NA 0. 03 3.94 NA SOz = sulfur dioxide NOX = oxides of nitrogen HC = hydrocarbons MWe = megawatt-electric MMscfd = million standard cubic feet per day N = negligible bbl/day = barrels per day mtpy = metric tons per year NA = not available These data are from chapters 4-9 where pounds per hour were converted to tons per year using the load factor. Assuming 80 percent S02 scrubber efficiency, 99 percent particulate removal effi- ciency, and from 0 to 40 percent NOX removal. "Hydrogen sulfide, assuming 90 percent removal efficiency. 932 ------- pollutant.1 Emissions from the energy facilities, those associated with the population, and the totals are given in Tables 11-6 and 11-7 for the Northern Great Plains (North Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming) and in Tables 11-8 and 11-9 for the Rocky Mountain States (Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico) . Figure 11-5 summarizes these data by indicating the increases (or decreases) relative to 1975 emission levels that projected emissions represent. Note from Table 11-6 through 11-9 that, except in the case of HC, emissions from energy related population increases are only a small fraction (0.04 to 6.5 percent) of those from the energy facilities. In fact, the site specific analyses (Chapters 4-9) indicated that HC air concentrations which result from emissions associated with the population (from automobile and space heating systems) are likely to violate the federal ambient air quality HC standard. In the Northern Great Plains (Tables 11-6 and 11-7) HC emissions from the population exceed those from energy facilities by the year 2000. This is not the case in the Rocky Mountain States (Table 11-9: Nominal) because the oil shale facilities are located there and emit relatively large quantities of HC. Figure 11-5 shows that for the Low Demand case in 2000 the largest increases above 1975 levels for sulfur dioxide (S02) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) occur in the Northern Great Plains subregion (1.71 times greater than 1975 levels for SC-2 and on the order of 5.6 times greater than 1975 levels for N0y) . The largest increase by the year 2000 in the Rocky Mountain region (Low Demand case) is for NOX (1.36-1.51 times greater than 1975 levels. NOX emission levels are highly uncertain since the quantity of NOX that scrubbers will remove has been estimated to range from none to 40 percent. The data in Tables 11-6 through 11-9 reflect that range. In the Rocky Mountain States, Figure 11-5 shows that HC emission levels for the Low Demand case increase only slightly, but for the Nominal Demand case they increase to a level 1.27 times larger than the 1975 level due to sharply increased levels of oil shale production. Overall, emissions due to energy facilities are projected to be lower in the Rocky Mountain States than in the Northern Great Plains. This is a consequence of the projections which indicate that larger numbers of coal fired power plants will be built in the Northern Great Plains than in the Rocky Mountain States; power plants emit greater quantities of criteria pollutants (ex- cept HC) than other energy facilities. Emissions by state are given in Table 11-10 for the Low and Nominal Demand scenarios in 1990 and 2000. The increases coefficients are given in footnote c of Tables 11-6 through 11-9. 933 ------- U S X O z o w to u EH 5 D U M c^ tt (X in u CO rH CT> ro . • TJ- r- ro in ^-~ co ^r rH ro in tN .0 . • CM . CO IN •* rH rH rH ^r ~ 1 00 ^j> . o rH ^ VD CO IN ro 1 ro ro CO \o o ^D (N in ro ro o ^r rH •» O rH r^ rH nr in I~ — ro . 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XI - - 01 cn rO --1 • 0) C rH C 01 •H -H - ro o 01 -P -H 0) Xl VH 4-1 O VH re U 01 r-H 0) U 01 XI O -P x: n 01 3 rH i — i re Qj 4J 0 tn 4-i 0) •H en -P C •rH -H rH T) •H -H U > re -H VH rrj >1 >1 Cn X! rH 01 TI C 0) 0) C • H 01 re XI 4-1 -P .a o E O in M -H VH •— I Oi 0) 01 > O Oi XI rH 4-1 in in r- 3 on rH rH a 0) 01 > C O O .0 •H re 01 m CD •H tn g re 0) 01 w in o r^ C on M rH VH • O C O g H 3 -P 01 ro 0) 3 x! a -P O • QjrH 01 OJ -H 01 > XI 0) rH -P rH re •P E vn O O r^ EH IH en rH ., cd 0 C 0 O 0 -r-l IN -p •H x; -a 3 ro o x; o •P rH VH 01 0) CD C 01 •rH O rH XI O -P vU T) e re c si O -P •H -P fl) CJ w • 3 O 11 T) E 01 o ro W 0) 0) a 01 H ro o 01 0) C ro rH -H Cn o 0) in t3 13 -P C C ro tn cd 01 rH rH -rH &J •H -p O-rH W r-H 0) (D -H 3 0) O O 3 ro a ro IH O T) Q) 01 C xi re ro Cn W 01 cu -a 01 X) C -rH E ro -P 3 -H C rH rH •H -H 0) 0 0 > re BVH ro u in Cn MH rH 0) 0) C 01 3 C VH ro o -rH O 01 01 -rH •rH 01 -P -H 01 in E x; •H 0) 4J x; c EH U >i a: K in 936 ------- 00 W EH < EH CO CT\ I W CJ X O CN O tfl DO M EH rJ £2 O M OS a o m o o °^ . • ^ m ^ ** rH CO r-. 01 OD rH " , " ^ ro' ro o pj r-f rH ro ro fSJ 0-i ^. rH • • r« vc o tn rO , — . ^ rH O T ro rt .O • CC • CO O"» O -H ro m — r^ O -— ' rH * rH • m . O y> rH T 1 J .' • r- CM UO • — I — in fN kO ,—. CO rH ro co ^r o .0 • • cr, , i— ) • • VD • CO O <^> rH CO rj- — ' rH ^ . — . co =r • ro ro • IT) rH in ~- O QJ O 0) O OJ co > ar» > o > cr> O en O O O fO fO tJ .. ^ d) •• J3 (U •• JD (D ^QJQJfO QJflJfd QJQJTJ LO JJ -H O -P -H (D -H -H &> O> QJ -H O QJ -H U (U -H U i — 1 T~l rH C TO rH C 'f~l i — 1 C 0 -H 0 -H O -H O -H O -H U -H c M o c -Mac SHOG •H p-i fTJ O 'C P-i fO O T3 &J fQ O T3 u-, -H c y-i -H c 4-i -H c t/7 C/3 -0 fT5O tO 4-J fO'O W 4-^ fO^ CCIXfTJ LD C I>i fO ^ C >t Itf m 0 0 rj^fHrHt^- O CP'HrHr^ O tJIrHrHf^- •H -H M 3 fO Oi 'H IM 13 fd C^ "^ i-J J3 (13 ^i W tO (D QJ -U '— 1 U) (UQj-UJrH tO 0)Qj-Pr~' wwcoo cocoo WGOO •H -H W P-i t^ """f W O-i E"1 "^ W O-i E"1 E E E E H W W W in O XI 1C CJ 0 rH •C £ II CJ c 11 CP O rH 4J •H HH O in 41 •O -H X 0 II X O 41 •O X O •H •0 rj 3 MH i — i 3 in H r\ O CO 1 •rH > W 0 UH 4i 0 CJ O rH 1 i-l rH £ tn 3 0 i rH in 41 rH J2 IB EH C -H •o 4> 4-1 IB CJ • H T3 C •H in rH D > CD r-\ in C O •H K in •H e 41 IT) r- Ol p-H TO 4J IH O o. 4) « rH IB 3 C C < co Q W 1) 4-> in >1 CO IB 4J ro Q in 0 •H in in W rH 10 c o -H 4-1 IB ;2 Environmental Research Center, 1975. r-H ro C O •rH 4J m 2 • « • >,CJ O • c s 4) Cn - < r* IH C IB O C^ •H -P 4) CJ rH D Cn -P C O IB ^H -rt Av &H EH rH IB J3 -P O C rH 0) IB e 4) c in O D M OH CJ (0 i X) 1 rH 0) rH JO EH C •H C 4) > •H en in M 0 4-1 CJ IB <4H £ O • H in in •H E 0) tn e •rf >l a -rH 4J rH 3 E S-l a TJ QJ C •H ro 4J Q O £> in •a o H in (D i •H 01 41 rH x: D x; -p IH 0 I4H rj> C •H 3 t! C ro 4-1 C 0) E O rH D > 0) T3 UH O rH 4) > 4) rH X U IB 4) 4.) IB ^ •H rH •H O rB U-H M-l 0 4) a >i 4-1 increase above 1975. 1> jr; 4J in 4-> C 4) in 4) in a 41 tn 01 •H 4J •H rH -H CJ IB H UH 0 r^ 4) C 4) x: EH projections from Table 11-34 by emission co- c 0 •rl 4J 13 rH 3 0, 0 a 0) 4J en c •ri r=M r-f a •H 4-1 rH 3 E >, XI rrj 0 C •H 10 4-1 £) O U 1 3 O H 4J IB a 41 IH in C 0) -H CJ • H UH U O CJ C O •H in tn 'E 41 4) a 0 D a o o O v rH rH D a iH rO 4) ^ IH O) a in c o 4-1 c M in 4J C 4) •H 0 lH MH 41 3. s those from the energy facilities plus those 75 level is obtained by dividing total by the CTl ^ C_) S- t3 C IB >v O r- •. X 0 z ... o T-H ^ rv O CO ... 01 . rH - in 41 4-1 IB rH 3 i-H a tn c o •H in tn •H E 4) in r^ 01 rH UH 0 E 3 in 4) 4-1 in •rl rH IB 4-1 0 EH TJJ CT\ r-f 0) > 0 rO 4) in IB 4) IH CJ C IH . c 0 •H 4J a rH 3 a o • QrH 0) 11 > .C 0) 4-1 rH E ui 0 r^ •M &\ 4-J rH 937 ------- TABLE 11-10: PROJECTED EMISSIONS IN SIX WESTERN STATES: LOW AND NOMINAL DEMAND SCENARIOS3 (thousands of tons per year) Colorado: 1975b Increase2 1990 2000 Total: 2000 New Mexico: 197 5b Increase0 1990 2000 Total: 2000 Utah: 1975b Increase0 1990 2000 Total: 2000 Wyoming: 1975b Increase0 1990 2000 Total: 2000 Montana: 197 5b Increase0 1990 2000 Total: 2000 North Dakota: 1975b Increase0 1990 2000 Total: 2000 PARTICULATES 222 5.32 - 25.78 22.08 - 95.00 244.08 - 317.00 113 19.05 - 19.52 21.01 - 22.92 134.01 - 135.92 79 0.00 - 7.24 0.34 - 20.97 79.34 - 99. 97 83.1 13.32 - 10.07 17.58 - 19.24 100.68 - 102.34 301 27.51 - 45. 88 48.04 - 57. 38 349.04 - 358.38 87.1 39.62 - 59.40 59.74 - 89.66 146.84 - 176.76 S02 54.2 20.94 - 63.92 37.39 - 96.00 91.59 - 150.20 490 36. 32 - 31.50 28.29 - 76.54 518.29 - 566.54 168 0.00 - 19.06 0.01 - 24.58 168.01 - 192.58 76.5 63. 49 - 42.35 107.03 - 138.52 183.53 - 215.02 960 137.97 - 237.91 305.28 - 399.03 1265.28 - 1359.03 86.6 197.88 - 288.86 376.42 - 576.17 463.02 - 663.17 NO 163 70.91 - 200.50 127.45 - 391.65 290.45 - 554.65 220 87.81 - 72.34 67.96 - 76.62 287.96 - 296.62 89 0.00 - 65.69 N - 95.66 89.00 - 184.66 80 207.77 - 138.53 282.13 - 327.06 362.13 - 407.06 164 248.34 - 425.15 533.19 - 683. 36 697.19 - 847.36 94.5 391.85 - 576.54 700.06 - 1067.00 794.56 - 1161.43 HC 213 2.17 - 51.05 35.70 - 109.94 248.70 - 322.94 168 9.57 - -14. (H* -37.47°- -41.14d 130.53 - 126.86 108 0.00 - 1.38 N - 17.46 108.00 - 125.46 61 4.32 - 2.88 11.01 - 12.11 72.01 - 73. 11 300 5.15 - 8.87 16.39 - 19.76 316.39 - 319.76 77.5 9.11 - 13.39 16.42 - 25.03 93.92 - 102.53 SOz = sulfur dioxide NOX = oxides of nitrogen HC = hydrocarbons N = negligible For 1990 and 2000 the Low Demand projection is given first, followed by the Nominal Demand projections. The 1975 emission levels indicated in Tables 11-6 thrcugh 11-10 come from U.S., Environmen- tal Protection Agency. National Emissions Data System (NEDS) Annual Report. Research Tri- angle Park, N.C.: National Environmental Research Center, 1975. Contribution projected to come from energy facilities. This is a negative number because oil and gas production declines through 2000; HC emissions from oil and gas facilities decrease more than those from additional synthetic fuels facili- ties and power plants increase. 938 ------- Rocky Mountain Region Northern Great Plains Region . )5 . JO . i'j . 10 . li QJ > Q) i-3 i 0) in i (0 PQ 4-1 O i. . oo 1975 lyso 1U90 (A) Particulates ]'J75 1980 1990 1.70 1.60 1.50 1.40 1.30 £ 1.20 (U ^ 1.10 . ------- in emissions by state follow the same general trends found in the resource subareas. In the Low Demand case, Montana is pro- jected to have the highest emissions of particulates, SOz and HC by 2000, while North Dakota is projected to have the highest NOX emissions. In the six states listed, NOX emissions generally would increase more than the other criteria pollutant emissions, with increases by 2000 ranging up to 700,000 tons per year (Low Demand) for North Dakota. SOz emissions are also expected to show large increases by 2000, while particulate emissions are expected to be only slightly higher than 1975 levels. In New Mexico, very little change in emissions between 1990 and 2000 and between the Low and Nominal cases is projected. This is because, although synthetic fuel and geothermal energy are in- creasing, oil and gas production is decreasing between 1990 and 2000. Table 11-11 lists emissions in selected states (outside the western region) which are thought to be representative of low or moderately industrialized states (such as Iowa and Georgia) and of highly industrialized states (such as Ohio and California). By comparison, the 1975 emissions and projected emissions in the six western states are relatively low1 with the exception of projected S02 emissions. For example, 1975 particulate levels in the six states listed in Table 11-10 ranged from 79,000 to 301,000 tons. These can be compared with 1972 levels in Iowa (239,000 tons), California (1,100,000 tons) and Ohio (1,947,999 tons). In 2000, particulate emissions in the six states are projected to range from 79,300 tons to 349,000 tons (Low Demand). The highest value is for Montana, which is similar to 1972 emissions in Iowa. Projected emissions of NOX and HC in the six western states are generally lower than emissions in the states outside the region (Table 11-10 compared with Table 11-11). By 2000, however, SOz emissions (Low Demand) in Montana exceed those in all states shown in Table 11-11 except Ohio. In New Mexico and North Dakota, projected S02 emissions in 2000 (Low Demand) are similar to 1975 emissions in California and Georgia. Emissions densities (calculated as the facility emissions divided by the area of the region in which production occurs) also give some indication of likely regional air quality problems such as reductions in visibility and sulfate formation. For SOa, a density of 14 tons per year per square mile (500 kg/km2) has been identified in the Ohio River Basin as a level above finding is stated for the purpose of comparison only. We do not intend to imply that the degradation that would be experienced would be either acceptable or unacceptable. 940 ------- TABLE 11-11: EMISSIONS IN SELECTED STATES IN 1972' (thousands of tons per year) STATE Ohio California Georgia Washington Texas Iowa PARTICULATES 1,947 1,110 446 179 606 239 S02 3,290 434 521 301 830 312 N0x 1,210 1,830 408 207 1,440 267 HC 1,272 2,380 505 380 2,450 349 S02 = sulfur dioxide NOx = oxides of nitrogen HC = hydrocarbons U.S., Environmental Protection Agency. Nationa.1 Emissions Report, EN-226. Research Triangle Park, N.C.: National Environmental Research Center, 1974 which air pollution problems may arise.l Table 11-12 gives emission densities for S02 using two regional areas. In one case, the state area is divided into total S02 emissions for that state (from Table 11-10). In the other case, the area of all counties in which energy facilities are projected to be sited is divided into total S02 emissions. This county level emission density calculation is done for two subregions, Northern Great Plains and Rocky Mountains. As indicated in Table 11-12, in the year 2000 the 14 tons per year per square mile index is exceeded for the counties in the Northern Great Plains in both the Low and Nominal cases; it is slightly exceeded in the Rocky Mountains in the Nominal case. While this index of 14 tons per square mile was calculated for the Ohio River Basin and thus may not apply to the West, these calculations do suggest that the magnitude of emissions is of concern. B. Emissions From All Economic Sectors The second air emission analysis was carried out using the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Strategic Environmental !Smith, Lowell F., and Brand L. Niemann, "The Ohio River Basin Energy Study: The Future of Air Resources and Other Factors Affecting Energy Development." Paper presented at the Third International Conference on Environmental Problems of the Extrac- tive Industries, Dayton, Ohio, November 29-December 1, 1977, p. 22. 941 ------- TABLE 11-12: EMISSION DENSITIES FOR SULFUR DIOXIDE (tons per square mile per year) o By state New Mexico Colorado Utah Montana Wyoming North Dakota By counties aggregated to subregionsb Rocky Mountain States Northern Great Plains 1975 4.02 0.52 1.98 6.52 0.78 1.22 5.40 1.35 2000 LOW 4.25 0.88 1.98 8.57 1.88 6.54 8.04 20.43 NOMINAL 4.65 1.44 2.27 9.21 2.20 9.36 13.38 28.32 Calculated by dividing total sulfur dioxide (S02) emissions by state from Table 11-10 by the area of each state in square miles. Calculated by dividing total S02 emissions from all energy facilities in a subregion by the total area of all counties in which energy facilities are located. Total SO2 emissions are obtained from Tables 11-6 through 11-9; 1975 emissions for the subregion must be sub- tracted from that total and 1975 emissions for the counties added. County areas are 25,308 square miles in the Rocky Mountain States and 41,608 square miles in the Northern Great Plains. 1975 S02 emissions for the counties total 136,400 tons per year (Rocky Mountains) and 56,300 tons per year (Northern Great Plains). Assessment System (SEAS) model1 which examined growth in air emissions for all economic sectors due to a "Nominal Dirty" ^.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Technology Assess- ment Model Project (TAMP) . A Description of the SEAS Model, Project Officer Dr. Richard Ball. Washington, D.C.: Environ- mental Protection Agency, 1977. (Unpublished report.) 942 ------- (155 Q) demand scenario. The "Nominal Dirty" scenario assumed 4.2 million bbl/day of shale oil by the year 2000 rather than the 2.5 million bbl/day assumed in the SRI Nominal scenario. Emission as- sumptions were based on emissions data collected for SEAS. Emis- sions control assumptions correspond to pre-1977 State Implementa- tion Plans, with NSPS becoming effective in 1979, except in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, where stricter state stan- dards are assumed to apply after 1979. Disaggregation of emissions was to three subregions: I - North and South Dakota and Montana; II - Colorado and Wyoming; and III - New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah. Emissions of criteria pollutants for these subregions are shown in Figures 11-6 through 11-10. The greatest increases in emissions are projected to occur in Colorado and Wyoming with a 900 percent increase in S02, 677 percent increase in NOX, and 248 percent in- crease in particulates by the year 2000. Emissions of HC and car- bon monoxide (CO) decline until 1990 in the eight-state area, and increase only modestly after that. The sources of these emissions are primarily automobiles rather than industry. The decline is caused by the SEAS model assumption that emission control on auto- mobiles will gradually tighten through the 1980's. The effect of that tightening, if it occurs, apparently more than offsets the population growth and associated increased numbers of automobiles. As shown in Figure 11-6, projected S02 emissions decrease in New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah. Sources of emissions explain this trend. The sources of S02 emissions for Colorado and Arizona are shown in Figure 11-11 for 1980, 1990, and 2000. In Colorado, pro- duction of electricity and industrial use of coal, along with oil shale development are the sources of increasing SOz emissions. In Arizona, production of electricity from coal accounts for an in- creased level of SO2 emissions, but this is more than offset by tightened emission standards on copper smelting, the source of 92.6 percent of 1980 S02 emissions. 11.2.4 Inadvertent Weather Modification1 Since coal combustion and synthetic fuel production add heat, water vapor, and various air pollutants to the atmosphere, they have the potential to affect weather patterns. Effects can include changes in precipitation (particularly cloudiness, 1 As indicated in the introduction to this chapter, the so- called greenhouse effect will not be considered here. 943 ------- 900 800 700 a 600 Q) U) 500 4-1 O 400 300 200 100 I I I II 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 11-6: GROWTH OF SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSIONS IN THE NOMINAL DIRTY SCENARIO a!975 base sulfur dioxides were as follows: Nation, 28.17 mil- lion tons per year; Subregion I (Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota), 379.7 thousand tons per year (Mtpy); Subregion II (Colorado and Wyoming), 154.1 Mtpy; and Subregion III (New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah), 2883.0 Mtpy. 944 ------- 900 800 700 ro 600 0) M-l O 500 C 400 o S-l 300 200 100 J_ J_ II III Nation 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 11-7: GROWTH OF OXIDES OF NITROGEN EMISSIONS IN THE NOMINAL DIRTY SCENARIO 1975 base oxides of nitrogen were as follows: Nation, 17.55 million tons per year; Subregion I (Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota), 169.5 thousand tons per year (Mtpy); Subregion II (Colorado and Wyoming), 237.7 Mtpy; and Subregion III (New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah), 379.4 Mtpy. 945 ------- 900 800 700 re 600 QJ 500 m o c 400 0) o n &, 300 200 100 II I III Nation 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 11-8: GROWTH OF PARTICULATE EMISSIONS IN THE NOMINAL DIRTY SCENARIO a!975 base participates were as follows: Nation, 20.19 million tons per year; Subregion I (Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota), 160.4 thousand tons per year (Mtpy); Subregion II (Colo- rado and Wyoming), 228.0 Mtpy; and Subregion III (New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah), 335.8 Mtpy. 946 ------- 200 II III I Nation 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 11-9: GROWTH OF HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS IN THE NOMINAL DIRTY SCENARIO 1975 base hydrocarbons were as follows: Nation, 14.87 million tons per year; Subregion I (Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota), 216.9 thousand tons per year (Mtpy); Subregion II (Colo- rado and Wyoming), 216.9 Mtpy); Subregion III (New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah), 368.3 Mtpy. 947 ------- cfl o 0) 100 75 50 25 II Nation I _L 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 11-10: DECLINE OF CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS IN THE NOMINAL DIRTY SCENARIO a!975 base carbon monoxides were as follows: Nation, 103.3 mil- lion tons per year; Subregion I (Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota), 1127.0 thousand tons per year (Mtpy); Subregion II (Colo- rado and Wyoming), 1592.0 Mtpy; and Subregion III (New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah), 2672.0 Mtpy. 948 ------- SH CU J— 1 f, -P O CU en D rH rH 03 03 -H O M U -p en 4-i 3 0 T3 C H T3 a g rrt ""1 i\j ,_» CU 0) rH rH O 03 rj ,£ -P CO 0! ft tH •H 0 >i X! tv >>1 -P •H U •H rH >-i rO -P O 0 U CU rH W M 0) CX a, o u a O o N H & < Q O Q i 1 -f o s s Q i S g s s? I f 18 : S ; 8 : 8 2 o ^ o u 0 S 0 H 8 co gn o o H H CO OH CO H >1 H EH X « r< 0 O H CL> $ H Q a 0) Q " 1-^ CO « < G S 2 O &4 H -p ^1 S D O 4-1 CO 2 0 &H en O o T3 o C CO O 03 U 1 3 o; o o o D °° ^ a o o^ -p » co rH — O) O o rH O U C 0 N CJ H 949 ------- fogginess, humidity levels, rain and snowfall amounts), changes in temperature, wind velocity reductions, and production of severe weather. Most of the research in inadvertent weather modification has been concerned with precipitation effects. Because cloud droplets form around small particles, the addition of small particulate matter (smaller than that normally perceived to affect air quality) is thought to have the most impact. But whether these particulate additions cause precipitation to in- crease or decrease is uncertain. In general, adding small par- ticulates to the air leads to clouds consisting of many small droplets which are slow in coalescing into rain.l On the other hand, formation of snow in winter clouds and in the upper, cold portions of summer clouds depends on the; presence of insoluble particles;2 their presence tends to increase precipitation but it is not known whether particulates from coal facilities will cause this effect. One research project in the Midwest section of the country recognized both increases and decreases in rainfall, depending on the details of the weather situation., 3 Another study indi- cated an increase in rainfall due to the presence of large par- ticles in pulp mill plumes.4 In nearly all cases, where an in- crease in precipitation due to pollution was observed, the location already had plentiful moisture. In arid and semiarid regions, there is concern that air pollution may decrease pre- cipitation. One very preliminary study of the Northern Great Plains indicates that a decrease in precipitation would be likely with significant levels of coal development because of the increase in cloud "stability" due to large numbers of small particulates that would be introduced.5 Clearly, even minor changes in rainfall in the western states would have a major impact on ecosystems and crop production. In short, particulates tennis, Arnett S., and Briant L. Davis. Statement in Support of a National Energy Research and Development Planpre- sented at ERDA Public Meeting, Denver, Colorado, May 17-18, 1976), Bulletin 76-2. Rapid City, S.D.: South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, 1976. 2Cloud seeding procedures generally involve the introduction of insoluble particles into cold clouds. 3Project METROMEX. "A Review of Results Summarized by the National Science Foundation and Other Groups." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 55 (1974), pp. 86-121. 4Dennis and Davis. Support of National R&D Plan. 5 Ibid. 950 ------- added by activities such as coal-fired power plants may travel hundreds of miles downwind. While the effects of those particu- lates on precipitation amounts may be significant, the nature of the effect is largely unknown. 11.3 WATER IMPACTS 11.3.1 Introduction Water impacts have been evaluated for the UCRB and UMRB. Impacts are assessed for two levels of development (Low and Nomi- nal Demand cases) and for the time period 1980 to 2000. Water re- quirements and water effluents of mining, conversion facilities, energy transportation modes, and associated population increases are identified and resulting water impacts are analyzed for each basin. 11.3.2 Impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin The UCRB includes parts of Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. It can be divided into three subregions associated with the Green River, the Upper Main Stem of the Colorado River, and the San Juan River as shown in Figure 11-12. A. Existing Conditions (1) Surface Water The magnitude of water availability impacts associated with energy development in the UCRB depends in part on the quantity of surface water available in the basin. Estimates of this supply vary widely, but three references are most commonly used: 1. The Department of the Interior's Water for Energy Management Team1 estimates that at least 5.8 million acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) are available for consumptive use in the UCRB. Their estimate is based on releasing 8.25 million acre-ft/yr to the Lower Basin and allowing for shortages to irriga- tion users during subnormal years. l\J.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage- ment Team. Report on Water for Energy in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Denver, Colo.: Department of the Interior, 1974. 951 ------- WYOMING NEW MEXICO FIGURE 11-12: UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN 952 ------- 2. Tipton and Kalmbach1 estimated that 6.3 million acre-ft/yr would be available for consumptive use if 7.5 million acre-ft/yr2 were delivered to the Lower Basin and Upper Basin users did not have to experience any shortages. 3. Weatherford and Jacoby estimated that 5.25 mil- lion acre-ft/yr are available for consumptive use if 8.25 million acre-ft/yr are delivered to the Lower Basin.3 In our analysis, 5.8 million acre-ft/yr was used, although for impacts which are particularly dependent on flow rate, the effects of using other values are noted.k Estimates of the quantities of water currently being consumed in the UCRB also vary, primarily because of the inconsistent lrTipton and Kalmbach, Inc. Water Supplies of the Colorado River, in U.S., Congress, House of Representatives, Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs. Lower Colorado River Basin Project. Hearings before the Subcommittee on Irrigation and Reclamation, 89th Cong., 1st sess., 1965, p. 467. 2The difference between the Department of Interior's estimate of 8.25 million acre-ft/yr and this estimate of 7.5 million acre- ft/yr which must be released to the Lower Basin is due to assump- tions about where the water that is guaranteed to Mexico will come from. In the Mexican Water Treaty of 1944 (Treaty between the United States of America and Mexico Respecting Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, February 3, 1944, 59 Stat. 1219 [1945], Treaty Series No. 994), the U.S. agreed to guarantee Mexico 1.5 million acre-ft/yr; the Department of Interior's estimate assumes that the Upper Basin states are responsible for supplying one half of the amount or 0.75 million acre-ft/yr. The Upper Basin states evidently do not assume delivery of 0.75, thus their estimate is 7.5 rather than 8.25 million acre-ft/yr. 3Weatherford, Gary D., and Gordon C. Jacoby. "Impact of Energy Development on the Law of the Colorado River." Natural Resources Journal, Vol. 15 (January 1975), pp. 171-213. ''Estimates of water available for consumptive use generally assume an average flow rate for the Colorado River. The most common estimate of average flow rate is 13.5 million acre-ft/yr. However, the standard deviation of these estimates is 3.4 million, meaning that in 67 percent of the years, flow would be between 10.1 and 16.9 million acre-ft. In drought years, flow could be much less; flow for 1977 has been estimated at 5.3 million acre- feet. 953 ------- depletion categories used by various studies. Table 11-13 gives values for 1974 depletions totaling 3.7 million acre-ft/yr. Using different assumptions, another study estimated 1975 deple- tions to be 3.2 million acre-ft/yr.2 Irrigation of agriculture accounted for 58 percent of the 1974 depletion. Interbasin transfers, the largest of which was to the Denver area, consumed 20 percent,, and evaporation losses accounted for 14 percent. Other uses were negligible compared to these. Water quality in the UCRB has been studied extensively. The principal water quality problem is salinity. The average annual salt flow at Lee Ferry has been estimated at 8.6 million tons, of which 4.3 million tons are from natural sources, 1.5 million tons from agriculture and 2.8 million tons from other manmade sources.3 A detailed description of the natural sources of salinity is in- cluded in several reports.4 According to the classification sys- tem used by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), water with a salt or total dissolved solids (TDS) content of up to 1,000 milligrams per liter (mg/ii) is considered fresh. The EPA Interim Primary Drinking Water Standard has no TDS limit;5 however, the EPA ^.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage- ment Team. Report on Water for Energy in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Denver, Colo.: Department of the Interior, 1974, p. 13. 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Westwide Study Report on Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western States. Washington, B.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975. 3Hyatt, M. Leon, et al. Computer Simulation of the Hydrologic- Salinity Flow System Within the Upper Colorado River Basin. Logan, Utah: Utah State University, Utah Water Research Laboratory, 1970.. Other studies differ in their breakdown of sources but appear to agree on total load in the river. "Williams, J. Stewart. The Natural Salinity of the Colorado River, Occasional Paper 7. Logan, Utah!Utah State University, Utah Water Research Laboratory, 1975; and U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Water Quality Office. Quality of Water—Colorado River Basin, Progress Report No. 7. Denver, Colo.:Bureau of Reclamation, 1975. 5U.S., Environmental Protection Agency. "National Interim Primary Drinking Water Regulations." 40 Fed. Reg. 59,566-88. (December 24, 1975). 954 ------- ls§ o £ w K i-3 w t, ^ j EH O EH O u H X w E 5 w 2 O 2 H s o E EH D o Q § o \|J o u 2 O N M w CO O rH rH rO rH O rO rH CO rs] rH rsi rH O in rsi co ro o co oo in •?• ro in ro ^r r~ ro in i — i p^ •. rsi •c in rsi vr ?• rH co o IN O rO rH rH rH U ro CO ^O CO rH ro O in rH rH rsi rH rH CO «T CO sD sD O IN IN ro in rH OO UO rH r^ rH CO T in rO rH IN rH O rsi in . rH n o ro rH 10 4J 73 0i 73 C C C C ro ro r-i ro — i n CU - -H 01 >H 0) E 73 U CU M-' C 73 0) J2 •— • -H 73 o C 2 -H c: rH.c C a C ro O i<-' O "O C IS O rH Qj -H rH C -V -H rH ro rrj 4J -H -H CO O 4-1 ro -rH rH C 10 S 4-1 rH Oro Q-rH tn ro ro £T" 10 ro 4-j ^i -H 4-j 4-i £ -H «.0)>4MOOWH M 73 l-l ,C (J CU 0> Q. -H 3 O cu o >H wo c >ro e 73 fli £ o -H -H cu -rJ -H > 3 c: x EH tj-— CuiH E tJQ) E--H tlj r-- ro rH h. ro vD 00 rsi oo IN ro m o ""• in in CO rH ro rH rH ro 4J 0 4-> 3 cn o «? rH o in CO in ro r- o rsi rH CTi VO IN O i-l • H 0 M OJ tn 0) E CU 4J tn co CD c tn •H Uj IS O S -H r- in vc •. ro st ^J ro rsi o in rsi CO rg rH * IN ro rH C O •H 4-> 0) rH Qj CU 73 rH ro 0 EH C o 4J 1-1 O a o C£i e ro cu EH jj c cu E cu Cr C ro £ >i t3^ 1-1 CU C w ^ o UH l_j 0) 4-> (8 w ^ c •H ^ 0 4J c M CU £-. -p IM O 4-1 C 0) E 4J 1-1 It a 01 c „ 1 to * £3 • • cu o M 3 o CO CD .c 4-) U-l o 4J c 0) E 4J ^j ro a 0) Q • • < 0 0 u I* cu > C cu Q • c •H tn 18 m M a> ^> •H P5 0 73 ro i-i 0 rH O u n 0) p , a ^3 CU 4-1 c •H !>i a cu c w 1^ o IM >H 0) 4-1 ro •5. * O m rH • P-, a1 •^ o~> rH «. ^ C •H \|H CU 4-1 C H 4-> C 3 0 E ro c o •H 4J CU rH a cu 73 rH (0 3 -P O . •w CO rH UH O ro £ C •H CU C •H rH C 0 4-> C 0) 4J c ro rH Cj ^ 0) z o o •ro IS £> ro IP. o 4-1 • H C 3 4-1 tn 1-1 • H tn re , CJ rH D ro rH •H IS > 10 4-1 O c 73 CU 73 3 rH O C •H 4J 0 C c o •H 4J a E 3 tn C o 0 0) IH •H rH 73 rH • H 2 O •rH O 4-1 tn •H £ rH ro VJ 3 4J ro 4D . 1-1 •H 0 ^1 cu in cu K OJ tn CU 73 3 rH U c M U . i_) •r-f 0 p 0 en cu 05 O •ro ro ^ 18 2 E O 1U C O -H 4J ro R ro cu tn CU 73 3 0 H t3 955 ------- proposed secondary standard recommends that TDS be limited to 500 mg/2,.1 For livestock, water is rated good up to a TDS of 2,500 mg/£.2 The more saline the water, the less desirable it is for agri- cultural purposes as well as for drinking. Concentrations of TDS at various points in the UCRB are shown in Table 11-14. All the streams are fresh according to the USGS classification system, except for the San Rafael River which flows through extensive salt and potash deposits in Utah. The allocation of water rights and legal/political problems surrounding them will be important in determining whether a por- tion of the unused water in the UCRB can be used for energy devel- opments. The legal structure governing the Colorado River has a long history of development.3 Major compacts include the Colorado River Compact, which apportioned the flow between the Upper and Lower Basins and guaranteed 7.5 million acre-ft/yr to the Lower Basin. The UCRB Compact1* divided the flow available to the Upper Basin, giving 50,000 acre-ft/yr to Arizona and apportioning 51.75 percent of the remainder to Colorado, 11.25 percent to New Mexico, 23 percent to Utah, and 14 percent to Wyoming. The Mexican Water Treaty of 1944 guarantees Mexico 1.5 mil- lion acre-ft/yr from the Colorado River5 but does not specify whether this amount should come equally from the Upper and Lower Basin apportionments or all from the Lower Basin. In addition, ^.S., Environmental Protection Agency. "National Secondary Drinking Water Regulations," Proposed Regulations. 42 Fed. Reg. 17,143-47 (March 31, 1977). 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Final Environmental Impact Statement: Proposed Kaiparowits Pro- ject ,6 vols.Salt Lake City,Utah:Bureau of Land Management, T9T6, p. 11-152. 3The appropriation system dates to the 1800's, and the Colo- rado River Compact was enacted in 1922 (42 Stat. 171) and de- clared effective by Presidential Proclamation in 1928 (46 Stat. 3000). 4Upper Colorado River Basin Compact of 1948, Pub. L. 81-37, 63 Stat. 31 (1949). 5Treaty between the United States of America and Mexico Re- specting Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, February 3, 1944, 59 Stat. 1219 (1945), Treaty Series No. 994. 956 ------- TABLE 11-14: AVERAGE TOTAL DISSOLVED SOLIDS CONCENTRATIONS IN STREAMS OF THE UPPER COLORADO REGION, 1941-1972 STATION LOCATION Green River Subregion Green River at Green River, Wyoming Green River near Greendale, Utah Green River at Green River, Utah Duchesne River near Randlett, Utah San Rafael River near Green River, Utah Upper Main Stem Subregion Colorado River near Glenwood Springs, Colorado Colorado River near Cameo, Colorado Colorado River near Cisco, Utah Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colorado San Juan-Colorado Subregion San Juan River near Archuleta, New Mexico San Juan River near Bluff, Utah Upper Colorado Region Outlet Colorado River at Lee Ferry, Arizona TOTAL DISSOLVED SOLIDS (mg/A) 307 421 456 680 1,688 270 405 612 621 159 447 558 mg/£ = milligrams per liter Source: Abstracted from U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Water Quality Office. Quality of Water- Colorado River Basin, Progress Report No. 7. Denver, Colo.: Bureau of Reclamation, 1975. an agreement with Mexico in 19731 and the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 19742 address salinity problems in the basin. Water quality standards for the Colorado River have been set by the states of the basin at 723 mg/£ below Hoover Dam, 747 International Boundary and Water Commission. "Permanent and Definitive Solution to the International Problem of the Salinity of the Colorado River," Minute No. 242. Department of State Bulletin, Vol. 69 (September 24, 1973), pp. 395-96. 2Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 1974, Pub. L. 93-320, 88 Stat. 266 (codified at 43 U.S.C.A. §§ 1571 et seq. [Supp. 1976]). 957 ------- mg/£ below Parker Dam, and 879 mg/£ at Imperial Dam.1 Adding to the complexity are the uncertainties associated with quantifica- tion of federal and Indian water rights and any allocation of flows to instream use. The federal government owns about 70 percent of the land in the Colorado River Basin and Indians have claimed rights to as much water as needed on the reservation. Federal and Indian rights under the Winters Doctrine reserve a sufficient quantity of unappropriated water to accomplish the purposes for which land was reserved. The Winters Doctrine has been affirmed in the courts to hold that reserved rights are not subject to state appropriation laws and that those rights are not lost if they are not used. These water problems and issues are elaborated in the Policy Analysis Report.2 (2) Groundwater Large quantities of groundwater are present in the UCRB. Although its distribution and quality are largely a function of geology and topography, UCRB groundwater is generally more evenly distributed than surface water and has a higher TDS. The most important groundwater aquifers are in sedimentary bedrock and in sand and gravel alluvium along rivers and streams. An estimated 115 million acre-ft/yr of water is stored in these aquifers at a depth of less than 100 feet,3 with substantially greater quantities in deeper reservoirs. This quantity is almost four times the storage capacity of all surface water reservoirs in the basin. The rate of recharge is about 4 million acre-ft/yr, but because many groundwater aquifers are isolated, the rate of withdrawal locally without mining must be determined from local recharge rates. Wells capable of yielding as much as 1,000 gallons per minute (gpm) can be drilled in much of the basin. "* Flow into groundwater aquifers usually takes place at high elevations where precipitation and flow in surface streams is J41 Fed. Reg. 13,656-57 (March 31, 1976). Colorado agreed to the standards at a later date. 2White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West; Policy Analysis Report. Washington, D.C.: U„S.,Environmental Protec- tion Agency, forthcoming. 3Price, Don, and Ted Arnow. Summary Appraisals of the Nation's Ground-Water Resources—Upper Colorado Region, U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 813-C. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1974. ''U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Westwide Study Report on Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western States. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975, p. 35. 958 ------- greatest and where the layers of rock making up the aquifer crop out at the surface. Discharge from the aquifers occurs at lower elevations in springs, seeps, and back into surface streams. Be- cause of the slow movement of water in the aquifer, its behavior is much like that of a surface impoundment. With a continuous discharge, this can be beneficial to maintaining flow in surface streams during periods of normal low flow. Water quality in aquifers in the UCRB varies widely but in general is a function of the mineral composition of the aquifer and the length of time the water has been stored there. Thus, water close to the recharge area (at higher elevations) has the best quality, and quality decreases at lower elevations. Water in aquifers above 7,000 feet elevation generally has a TDS of less than 1,000 mg/£.* This is fresh water according to the USGS classification system. About 133,000 acre-ft/yr of groundwater are currently used in the UCRB.2 In the basin, this is 2 percent of the total water used3 and about 3 percent of the annual recharge rate for ground- water. Groundwater use is limited by inadequate knowledge of its location and quality, and because the slow movement of water in aquifers requires a large number of wells over a wide area to withdraw at a substantial rate. (For perspective, if a suffi- ciently large groundwater aquifer could be found, 25 wells would be required, each producing 1,000 gpm, to supply water to a 3,000 megawatt-electric [MWe] power plant.) In addition, obtaining rights to groundwater can be difficult because of the inconsis- tencies and uncertainties associated with its administration. Groundwater has been administered locally rather than on a state- wide or regional basis, but this situation is changing as demand for water increases. B. Water Requirements The water requirements for energy development in the UCRB have been calculated for the two levels of energy development 1 Price, Don, and Ted Arnow. Summary Appraisals of the Na- tion's Ground-Water Resources--Upper Colorado Region, U.S. Geolog- ical Survey Professional Paper 813-C. Washington, B.C.: Govern- ment Printing Office, 1974. 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Westwide Study Report on Water Problems Facing the Eleven Wesjtern States. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975, p. 35. 3Price and Arnow. Ground-Water Resources—Upper Colorado Region. 959 ------- postulated in Section 11.I.1 These requirements are shown in Table 11-15. Assuming high wet cooling,, the largest requirements are for power plants. If intermediate cooling is used, regional water demands for energy would be reduced by about 60,000 acre-ft by the year 2000, assuming the Low Demand case. This represents about a 20 percent decrease in total basin water requirements.2 Projected water requirements resulting from the increases in population associated with the three levels of development are shown in Table 11-16. Assuming a daily consumption of 150 gallons per person, these water requirements will be less than 85,000 acre-ft/yr. This is approximately the amount of water required for three steam-electrical power plants,. Thus, population water requirements will be small compared to those for the facilities themselves, and will remain small, even if the per capita consump- tion doubles from the 150 gallons assumed. Total increased water requirements for the UCRB in the year 2000 for the two levels of energy development assumed in Section 11.1 are: Low Demand case, 311,500 acre-ft/yr and Nominal Demand case, 1,338,000 acre-ft/yr with wet cooling. If wet/dry cooling is used, water requirements are reduced to 251,500 acre-ft/yr in the Low Demand case and 1,246,800 acre-ft/yr in the Nominal De- mand case. C. Water Effluents Solid effluents and the quantity of wastewater produced by the energy facilities are given in Table 11-17 for the three time periods and two demand cases. Oil shale development (both TOSCO II and modified in situ) contributes nearly 85 percent of the total solids produced by energy development in the Basin. Overall, solid effluents in the Nominal case are more than four times those in the Low Demand case. 1 The location of energy facilities will be critical in deter- mining total demand on the water system. In this report, the re- gional demands are not addressed with respect to a specific site but rather with respect to the basin as a whole. 2Gold, Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977.For an elaboration of these potential savings, including savings associated with minimal wet cooling, see Chapter 4, "Water Policy Analysis," of White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West; Policy Analysis Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environ- mental Protection Agency, forthcoming. 960 ------- H O Q O ^ O u H 1 1 ) ^ ^ En Q o o o K -X \| \| CO E-i K r-J CC. M O w K C H W f_ d K ^ < ^ 1^ < — i ^- o 2 o z Sg K D 3 o w H ^ M T I§ Di ^~ pH ^ 2 ^ in -q- ,' o^ f-~ Lfl rH , , o g z z Z Z Z J ' in co ^ ^ in rH J M rxi co !; in o -S gg H ^ 1— o *~ &~" t^ IS Pl-l ^ H K H f£ -J — . 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J-1 (C E QJ 'C W 'O -H 'O \| C f C— CrHrHrH ^rH^^rH •P— OrOO-Q-HX!COJX!rH>iO>tffl- — •'' i — ig fC[D Do HO 'OrCo E CjQj CDj EQJ," C-i UE (\3OHO OU"JO E ^J-n-P ^S O-HSIUHO o H o 3o >^E-ES! OJ E iHO1— ' GJvQ-V-irH^-HOME; ErC "rH CPO-HO 3o Uo H-HO Co J-i rH -PO"T. S • com cro wo 'CCo ro * 3m rein Co^--1 0^ CO rJ -H i— 1 O rH O rH V4rHrHrsl 0 TJ o TO >i CO W c o ^-i J-i ^ D"1 01 C u a 73 -H Oj ^i rH CX Ul fO O C 73 O 01 O 0) C U C JJ rH tO O J3 JJ >t JJ C (0 01 in 0 rH "3 U -H --J -O -rH rH tlj C >1 ij rH > ro JQ JJ -rj ?S 01 E 01 & e JJ oi c II O -H -H II C JJ rH >, -HO >, a n IH o Qv -J -H O jj g <: u E S z ro >, W )H 01 w N ^ -n C 01 ro 73 JJ r< 01 ro s rr^ C 01 ro 01 -^ c Ul -H a 1 £ O JJ U SH CT' o c IW -H rH C\ O 1 O •o- o 01 JJ >H 01 Oi S Jj QJ 0) co • JJ £ rH C3 tj 1 -H rH 73 C rH 01 •n e 01 V, 73 rH O1 c ja jj OH -H UH c 0) -H Cn JJ C C 73 -H >, 01 0) rH ro g N o 73 a -r> 0 W rl U IH -rH ro 01 3 g J o, tr E 01 0) 3 S JJ U 03 0) rH O iJ 73 rH >jj 01 c ro jj ro O CO 01 -H s jJ ro ja M 3 UH o -a o o o. oi • 01 C CJl 73 X 0) rJ H ri IH ro cf uj o o ro 73 c 01 o1 01 -H 73 CO -H 73 C r< C Vj U J= 0) jj ro oi JJ 01 73 CJ JJ 0,73 0) -ri C i 0 73 S C 73 ro c 00 c II UH 73 01 g £ U \ II 01 3 C"73 01 03 rH ^: 01 -H ro 3S.QL> EHI/I 10 nd Lurg ded to wa nd equire- gh he ga r- c 0 -H 4J ro o • H VJH • H 01 ro c a c ro £ +j c >* u: JZ JJ 0 jq H O 14H 01 JJ c 0) E 0) >H -H 3 C1 o SH M 0' JJ ro S 03 0' re SH 0 s^ 0 o c -H 0) c ro 03 • H f- H 03 O 03 >N ro c CO u iiH .,H O 01 a 01 1 0) JJ •-J 01 OJ c •H E 73 C 3 0 SH t3i SH _0> C 3 O m 01 JJ C 0) E 01 SH •H 3 tr 0) SH SH 0) JJ CO 3 jj C 0) Sj 01 UH U-* •H r^; 0) jr, jj 01 jj o 0) rH U-i 0 SH 0) er. c ro SH OT -H £ . — ro O rH rH -H E 0) r* JJ >1 ja 73 01 SH -H 3 tr 0) ro I-H a SH o s o & rj 0 it- Ul j-j C 01 E 0) in -H 3 O1 0) M 0) JJ ro -rH 73 01 E SH O JJ C -H 73 T3 ro CD 03 CO U 0) JJ ro H 73 01 E SH 0) JJ C -H 01 —* JJ SH O 01 ro jj c H Ul 0) -H JJ -H rH ,,H CJ ro UH IH 01 J" JJ 0 01 jj SH O o; jj c 0) 961 ------- CO U S3 o H H cn EH >, ft H PH >H tf QJ O O DJ fa Q H vo oo in CT\ TJ< CN rH 00 O • • t r~ TJ« CN ro m >^) * • • O in rH m i>o m • • • VO \D rH rH oo in in • t t ro ro o vo CN in • • • rH Tf O ^O rH OO • • • ^2 ^J* CO O O 0 -H •a x (0 (U t i ^^ o ^ rH ^ fg O CD 4-> USD 00 • M 00 O r^ rH O • ** rH ro i ^ in • ^c CN 00 r^ "31 • VO ^ . m rH (0 4J 0 EH 0 O V-i 3o cfl 4-> Jj o -iH = 4J • (0 01 rH 4-> 3 O QJ O •"* SH rH Q) rH c 01 O C -H O 4J rH 0 __l f\\ f^ \^J (0 CO tn g 0 O m M rH W tT> 01 C 0) •H 4-1 6 <0 5 6 01 -H 01 4-) < 01 ^1 Q) 962 ------- TABLE 11-17: WATER EFFLUENTS FROM ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN3 DEMAND LEVEL AND EFFLUENT SOURCE Low Demand Energy Facility Power Plant Gasification Liquefaction TOSCO II Oil Shale Modified In Situ with Surface Retort Uranium Mill Population Total Nominal Demand Energy Facility Power Plant Gasification Liquefaction TOSCO II Oil Shale Modified In Situ with Surface Retort Uranium Mill Population Total SOLIDS (MMtpy) 1980 3.19 0 0 0 0 3.30 NC 6.49 4.78 0 0 0 0 3.67 NC 8.45 1990 4.78 0 0 0 15.56 7.34 NC 27.68 7.96 0 0 67.75 46.68 9.54 NC 131.93 2000 4.78 1.82 0 64.75 46.68 12.84 0.01 130.88 7.96 3.64 0 258. 99 264.54 17.62 0.04 552.79 WASTEWATER (thousand acre-ft/yr) 1980 2. 57 0 0 0 0 4.50 NC 7. 07 3.86 0 0 0 0 5.00 NC 8.86 1990 3.86 0 0 0 U 10.00 NC 13.86 6.43 0 0 8.04 U 13.00 NC 27.47 2000 3.86 0.95 0 8.04 U 17. 50 16.33 46.68 6.43 1.90 0 32. 16 U 24.00 55.85 120.34 MMtpy = million tons per year acre-ft/yr = acre feet per year U = unknown NC = not calculated These data are from chapters 4-9 for the standard size facilities and load factors assumed throughout che report and summarized in Section 11.1. Wastewater at 100 gallons per person per day, and 500 milligrams per liter solids. Population increases are 145,840 (Low Demand), and 498,700 (Nominal) by the year 2000. See Section 11.4. 963 ------- D. Water-Related Impacts of Energy Development in the UCRB (1) Surface Water The most obvious impact of energy development in the UCRB will be the withdrawal of water to supply the energy conversion facilities. As noted above, basinwide water requirements for the two levels of development could range from 248,000 to 1,338,000 acre-ft/yr by 2000 depending on the level of development and cooling technology. Using 1974 depletion levels, and assuming the Water for Energy Management Team's estimate of 5.8 million acre-ft/yr available to the Upper Basin is correct, the Upper Basin states are entitled to approximately 2.1 million acre-ft/yr of surface water which is not now being used in the Upper Basin.1 The energy developments postulated in our scenarios would require between 15 and 64 percent of this water.2 In addition, water will be required for secondary industrial and agricultural uses occur- ring as a direct result of the energy developments, as well as for growth occurring independent of energy development.3 Depending on how the demands for water are divided among the rivers in the UCRB and how reservoirs are used to regulate flow, flow depletion could become a problem as a result of energy with- drawals. Table 11-18 shows requirements disaggregated to various river basins for the year 2000. In all cases, the total energy- related demand is well below the average flow. However, the de- mands are a large fraction of typical low flows and equal or ex- ceed record low flows in the Four Corners Area. These water requirements and the resulting flow reductions which could occur during low flow periods could threaten fish and waterfowl species. (These impacts are discussed in Section 11.5.) The water requirements for energy development described above will also affect water quality. Unless desalination is carried out, current TDS values could increase significantly as a result of energy development in the UCR3. Even assuming no return flows from energy facilities, salt concentration will increase because of the withdrawal of water upstream of the principal 1U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage- ment Team. Report on Water for Energy in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Denver, Colo.: Department of the Interior, 1974. 2This assumes wet cooling is used. From 13 to 50 percent is required if wet/dry cooling is used. Alternatives for dealing with water availability problems are discussed in: White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West; Policy Analysis Report. U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.: forthcoming, Chapter 4. 3Water for Energy Management Team. Upper Colorado River Basin. 964 ------- ft ft D W w p 03 Pi oo r-H I w w co ^ u Q m s w Q 2 O . i •H O 2 O J fci S D S HH z H S J FLOW RECORD ScS 2 0 J fa W O S u § "w y u ?• c5 fe = § o w" P E 3 -O U 0 K o < 0 CO CN 3 CO l-l CB K CD O >, fcj — < W 2 < 03 O CO en U-l CJ o 0 ro 1 o o rH en U-l o rr rH VH >1 4-1 U-l 1 0) I-l o « o o o o rH CO rH VH CD •H 05 £3 ro 3 1-3 c ro CO VH >i \ •p U-l \| 01 VH O IB O rH m r~- r^ rH O CO CN •a* r~- rH tn i-i 0) C M O O 14 3 O r. __^ en UH 0 o o in CN •— • O -P tn C •H e VH ro t-, 4J IB en U-l O in •v CN rH T CN in MH O o o CN 1 O •31 en U-l o CO VH >1 4J UH 1 01 VH CJ CO O 0 O •r vc VX1 rH 1-1 CD > •H O5 C ro 3 1-3 c CO en ^^ en U-l CJ o o m CN _^ A: o o VH a •H 43 CO •p ro tn U-l o o o on rH 1 o O CO en UH CJ O o r~ VH >, 4-1 VH 1 CD 1-1 O ro o o o rH CN CO CN 1-1 CD •H 05 O •a ro rH o H 0 CJ H >i 4-1 U-l \| CD VH CJ CO o r in o m I o CO rH CA ^r O TD ro 1-1 o rH O CJ •p tn CD ^_^ tn UH o o o en m •— • 0 CD ro cj i-i IB CD C en U-l o o r~ i ^ tn 14H CJ O rH CN 1 O r~ rH en UH CJ CN rH rH rH >l 4-1 U-l 1 CD H O ro o o ^_^ en U-l o o ro en U-l CJ o o CO 1 o in CN en U-l o IN 0 rH Vj >1 \ •P U-l 1 CD l-l o CB O O ,._^ in U-l CJ o en r £> o CN m in T i-i •rH C5 CD 4-1 •H 43 VH >i \ 4J U-l \| CD l-l CJ (B o o rH C^ CN Vj CD ^ CD CD VH IB CD a 'en UH CJ o ^r ^_^ ^D O rH PO l-l CD > •rH K C CD CD l-l CJ l-l >, 4-1 UH \| 0) VH o ro o vo 00 o ro 1 O O in en CN 43 CO 4-1 D 4-1 en CO U Tf — C CD en C CD ^ VH IB CD C CO U-l O m «3" 1 ,-_! •«T •D e o o CD in n CD a 4-1 CD CD UH CJ •H 43 3 0 II en U-l CJ l-l ro CD >i VH CD a 4-1 CD CD UH 1 CD rH O ro u VH >-. •P MH 1 CD 14 CJ ro - i in l£> 1 rH ID en rH fc . 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U a k c o 4-> tn C -H 43 en ro 2 k IB rH rH CN VH CD a CO & >, rH a a 3 w VH CD -p ro 2 •. rH rH O > »• c •rH en ro ffl VJ CD > •H K •H VH 3 O en en •H E t •& r— en -rH VD ^ -P CD VH CJ CB -rH Oj U-l U4 -0 o r^ 1 vr> 143 a\ rH k. k w 3 Q) 43 4-> U-l O tn (3 •rH •P C •rH VH C. 4J C CD E C VH CD 0 U CD 43 •P l-l O U-l en 4J C CD CD u •~ i 3 cr CD VH VH CD -P ro S kk. . , rH . rH rH C 0 •rH -U 0 CD CO CD CD en 0 o o CN V4 IB CD >i CD 43 4J VH 0 U-l CD en ro O •O £3 ra E S O i-5 CD 43 4-> tn C •H E 3 in tn ra T3 c ro E CD Q 43 CD CJ ro U-l V4 3 en 4J en CD VH ra CD C 01 43 4-> O 4J 73 CD •p D 43 •rH VH •P 4J ro "O c ro en c o •H 4J a •H VH CJ en CD T) E CD •P tn >, to 4J C CD E a 0 rH CD > 0) Q 0) CJ VH 3 O tn 01 K >i tn l-l CD C M 0) 43 4J E 0 VH U-l en 0) •H tn 0 rH O c 43 CJ CD 4-1 CD O VH 3 0 en ai 05 > tn M CD S3 U kr 4-1 en CD 2 CD 43 •p E O VH &4 >. tn VH CD C U k tn c •H E 0 CJ 43 4J VH O U-l t. >1 CJ c CD tn < C o •H 4J O CD •p O VH IX rH ro 4-1 C • CD rH ro 4-1 CD E C o VH •rH > - C • u hj c • •H W VH D M b. kt CD • •P U •H • 43 Q 2 C . O C -P 0 tn •H C •P -H ro 43 cj en O ro rH 2 CD O • VH -P D l-l O 0 K Oi CD CD VH 05 0) en 43 E 4J 0) 4J O m •p >i CO >1 rH 4-1 C2< C a CD 3 E en a o l-l rH CD CD 4-> > ro ai 3 Q , in ic 1 rH l-O cn rH tn C •H VH 3 •a T) CD VH VH 3 CJ O O 4J ro 43 4J tn 3 0 rH U-l E 3 E •H C •rH E CD 43 4-> en •P C CD CO 0) VH a 01 VH CD tn £3 ro VH CD 43 H u 965 ------- sources of salt loadings. For example, salinity increases of 2 mg/£ at Imperial Dam were projected to result from the Kaiparowits project alone.1 If desalination projects are not carried out, in- creases in salinity at Imperial Dam are projected to increase from the present level of 879 mg/£ to as high as 1,250 mg/S, in the year 2000.2 This will be in violation of the limit established by the states in response to requirements of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (FWPCA); hence, additional salinity control measures, such as those authorized by the Salinity Control Act of 1974, 3 will be required. The economic costs of damages due to increases in salinity at Imperial Dam have been estimated at $230,000 per mg/£ of TDS increase,4 primarily because of decreased crop produc- tion from lands irrigated with this water. Control of salt load- ings through irrigation management and other on-farm measures has been estimated at between $7,000 and $750,000 per ing/A, and de- salination plants would cost between $100,000 and $4,000,000 per mg/& at Imperial Dam.5 Although the most significant water-related impacts in the UCRB will be due to water depletions and increases in salinity, several other impacts will also be important. These include municipal and industrial water supply and wastewater treatment problems, in-stream water needs to support fish and wildlife, and disposal of effluents from energy facilities. Most of these im- pacts are discussed in the site-specific chapters and Chapter 10. (2) Groundwater The quantity and quality of groundwater in the UCRB should decrease as a consequence of energy development. Both types of impacts will result from withdrawals from and additions to water in aquifer systems. ^.S., Department of the Interior,, Bureau of Land Management. Final Environmental Impact Statement; Proposed Kaiparowits Pro- ject, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976, p. III-157. 2Utah State University, Utah Water Research Laboratory. Colorado River Regional Assessment Study, Part 1: Executive Summary, Basin Profile and Report Digest, for National Commission on Water Quality. Logan, Utah: Utah Water Research Laboratory, 1975, p. 26. 3Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 1974, Pub. L. 93-320, 88 Stat. 266 (codified at 43 U.S.C.A. §§ 1571 et seq. [Supp. 1976]). "Utah Water Research Laboratory. Colorado River Regional Assessment Study, Part 1, p. 2. 5 Ibid., Part 1, p. 5. 966 ------- Groundwater withdrawals from aquifer systems could increase significantly if energy resources are developed close to the levels projected by our Low Demand scenario. While some ground- water withdrawals may be needed to dewater mines, most groundwater will be used for supplying municipal and rural population needs. Groundwater is especially attractive as a water source for domestic supplies in a water-short area like the UCRB. At present, about 31,000 acre-ft/yr are withdrawn for municipal supplies and about 14,000 acre-ft/yr are used for domestic supplies in rural areas.1 About 4,000 acre-ft/yr of groundwater are currently used for cooling in power plants. Large-scale groundwater withdrawals could lead to both local and regional lowering of the aquifer water levels in the immediate vicinity of wells. Lowered water levels could cause wells, springs, and seeps to go dry and could result in lower base flows in streams and rivers. The close interrelationship between ground- water and surface water could result in disputes over water rights stemming from groundwater withdrawals. Mining may affect local groundwater systems in several ways. Both underground and surface mines can interrupt aquifer flow, making dewatering operations necessary. As much as 765 square miles (about one-quarter percent) of the total surface area of the UCRB may be subjected to surface mining.2 Depending on the compo- sition of the overburden, oxidation may release contaminants to local shallow groundwater systems. In areas where the energy re- source is also an aquifer, as coal strata sometimes are, the aqui- fer will be destroyed when the resource is mined. If the over- burden is an aquifer, the aquifer properties may be greatly altered when the overburden is removed and then replaced. Reclaim- ing surface mined lands will not generally restore the aquifer properties. Mixing materials may reduce porosity and permeability, but this tendency may be offset by the disaggregation and loosening of mata-rials during removal and replacement. The net effect will vary according to the geologic conditions and will have to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. Most of the groundwater quality degradation that will result from energy development will be caused by chemical additions or disturbance to the natural aquifer systems. Shallow aquifers may ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Westwide Study Report on Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western States. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975, p. 51. 2Land use for surface mining is discussed in detail in Section 11.5 of this chapter and Chapter 7 of White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Policy Analysis Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. 967 ------- be polluted locally by mines, by energy conversion facilities, and by facilities associated with population growth. Deep aqui- fers would generally be polluted only where deep-well injection is used as a means of liquid waste disposal. Contaminated water from energy conversion facilities may enter groundwater systems directly as a result of seepage of liquid wastes and indirectly from leaching of solid waste from disposal sites. The types of pollutants will vary from facility to facil- ity, depending on the type of conversion process and the composi- tion and quantity of waste generated. Estimates of the amount of waste generated for the conversion processes considered are pre- sented in Table 11-17. In most places in the UCRB, the bedrock between the surface and the water table is mostly sandstone and shales which can fil- ter and absorb contaminated seepage. In addition, the water table in bedrock aquifers is quite deep, which also reduces the chances for contamination. In alluvial aquifers, the unconsolidated sand, gravel, and clay can similarly filter and absorb contaminants. Population growth associated with the projected energy devel- opment of the scenario will have two principal impacts on ground- water systems: the withdrawals required for municipal and domes- tic supplies, and the liquid and solid waste disposal methods used. If large towns develop over small or low-permeability aqui- fers, water levels may decline as a result of excessive withdrawal. Since the soils in much of the UCRB are thin, the effluent from septic tank drainfields (where used) may not be fully renovated, and partially-treated effluent may seep into local groundwater. Pollutants leached from municipal solid waste disposal sites could also contaminate shallow aquifers, but the arid climate over most of the basin lessens the potential seriousness of this problem. 11.3.3 Impacts in the Upper Missouri Fiver Basin A. Existing Conditions (1) Surface Water Surface water is available from several sources in the UMRB. As shown in Figure 11-13, the major subbasins are the Upper Missouri, Yellowstone, Western Dakota Tributaries, and Eastern Dakota Tributaries. The major tributaries to the Missouri are the Yellowstone, Powder, Little Missouri, Cheyenne, Belle Fourche, and James Rivers. Flows are generally highest in the western part of Problems and issues related to holding ponds disposal of effluents are discussed in Chapter 5 of White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Policy Analysis Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. 968 ------- t LEGEND BASIN BOUNDARY—^^^^ SUBBASIN BOUNDARY . -,s^~ STATE OR NATIONAL BOUNDARY MISSOURI SUBBAS/NS 1. UPPER MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES 2. YELLOWSTONE RIVER 3. WESTERN DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES 4. EASTERN DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES 5. PLATTE-NIOBRARA RIVERS 6. MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES 7. KANSAS RIVER 8. LOWER MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES FIGURE 11-13: SUBBASINS OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN 969 ------- the basin as a result of melting snow and ice in the spring, and can also be periodically high in any part of the basin as a result of prolonged rainfall or thunderstorms. Major river flows in the Fort Union Coal Region of the UMRB are shown in Table 11-19. The 8.8 million acre-ft/yr in the Yellowstone contributes about half the total flow into the Missouri above Lake Sakakawea. Water supply and use in the Mon- tana and Wyoming portions of the UMRB are shown in Table 11-20 for 1975. Total depletions are only 16 percent of the 20 million acre-ft/yr available in Montana and 19 percent of the nearly 8 million acre-ft/yr available in Wyoming., Data on categories of depletions for the Fort Union region of the UMRB in North Dakota are not available. The total average depletion in the UMRB is about 6.5 million acre-ft/yr including reservoir evaporation above Sioux City, Iowa.1 The undepleted flow at that point is approximately 28.3 million acre-ft/yr of which 19 million acre-ft/yr are estimated to be the practical limit for depletions.2 Hence, at present, an additional 12.5 million acre-ft/yr are apparently available for use. Water quality in the UMRB is generally good. Table 11-21 gives concentrations of TDS at selected locations in the Fort Union Coal Region. The Missouri River at Bismarck and the Yellow- stone River at its mouth both have TDS concentrations of less than 450 mg/£, and only the Powder River has a TDS concentration much greater than that considered fresh by the USGS classification system. The allocation of water rights and the legal political prob- lems surrounding them are important in determining whether a por- tion of the unused water of the Yellowstone and other rivers in the UMRB can be used for energy purposes.3 Northern Great Plains Resources Program. Water Work Group Report. Billings, Mont.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, 1974, p. 16. 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage- ment Team. Report on Water for Energy in the Northern Great Plains Area with Emphasis on the Yellowitone River Basin.Denver, Colo.: Department of the Interior, 1975, p. VII-6. 3These problems and associated issues are discussed in Chap- ter 4 of White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Policy Analysis Report. Washington, D.C.: U,. S., Environmental Protec- tion Agency, forthcoming. 970 ------- CM O H O u O H On) CM S H W CO ffi < EH PQ 2 03 CO H 2 03 K 03 CO O CO O3 CO O H S 03 cq S CU H CU D O W J ffi CM EH CA rH I H iH W o W rH" CJ CM tfA ^^ M ID (£l r- o o o CO oo in 0 0 o ^ CN rH S- rH CU C 0 -p CO o rH G H •H CU CO >1 rrj CQ rX SH CU O G CM 0 4-J CO CO ^ 5 SH 0 to H H •H U 0) 0 O 0 o m m •. CN O O O CA CN njt - rH O 0 0 (^ 0 W3 «. oo 43 4-> d O g SH rrj CU C G SH O j^ tn •H CQ 1 t3 G •H Jg 0 0 0 0 0 0 T U3 0 rH OO "tf O 0 o o 0 0 CM 00 oo ^ 0 0 0 O 0 O CA « ^o in in rH V rH 43 43 4-) -P O O g g tl ll 03 tO CU 0) C G OJ SH d 0) crind G £ 0 0 EH CU 0 O O o o CO V CO 0 o o o CM r- >. oo o o o o CA \£) «. CM rH CU G -O -H co S-) fO (U G CU G O 4-1 <0 u 0 rH H CU CO CU •H SH rrj 4-1 42 •H EH (0 4J O y tO p G ^ CU -P CO CU 0 0 0 0 0 0 O CO CA rH 00 rH 0 0 0 0 o o M< 00 00 o o 0 0 0 O •«r in CTi rH CM 00 «• rH 43 j3 i M fO G 43 •H 4-1 d o 0 g CO M •H tO S cu G CU rH CU 4-J MH -P -H •-H G O O 0 0 O 0 <* CA m ^r rH rH O 0 O 0 o o r- H rH O O O 0 0 0 in rH rH rH in r^ 43 -(,.1 I 43 4-J &-I O 0) g C SH rH (0 rH CU tO G .0 G 4-) O SH G tO G (U tO ffi U 0 0 0 VD m H o 0 0 CA 0 o o CN rH r~- 43 4-) 0 g S-i tO CU G T3 C M 0 O 0 o o O 0 CM in in CN CA m >. «. l£> CO rH rH 1 1 1 1 <0 SH 0) -H 5 O fO > y SH tO CU rX CO fO CU CO 03 0) 0) 1^ f~\| tO (0 J O 4-1 4-1 (0 fO SH SH cu cu > j> •H -H O3 O3 •H -H SH SH d d 0 0 CO CO CO CO -H -H S S o o o o 0 00 •> 00 CM 1 1 tO g H «• r1 -P •H U X ^ o •H CO -P fO SH cu ^> •H 03 -H SH d 0 CO CO •H S m 0 4J G CU g j_l (0 P, CU Q . 4J S-j O Pi CU OH P_, 3 O SH a rX SH O ^ S-\| cu 4-1 03 g 0 g (0 V-l en 0 S-i cu CO cu u S-J 3 o CO cu 03 CO C •H tO rH CU _p (0 cu SH O G SH CU 43 4J M o \|2 03 • 00 rH • a •. ^J1 r- CTi H V G O •H 4-1 (0 i rH O CU 03 m O ;3 (0 0) SH d CQ «. SH O •H J_l CU -p G H CU 43 4J CU 4-1 fO [g G O 4-1 SH O P_, CU 03 • g to cu EH -P G CU g CU tn tO G (0 S >•< Cn SH CU G W SH O 4H SH CU -P 03 15 •. SH O •H SH CU 4-1 G H CU 43 4-1 m o 4-) G (U g 4-1 SH fO pj 0) Q «. • CO . D _Q SH CU j> •H 03 CU G 0 4-1 CO •j 0 rH rH CU CU 43 -P G 0 CO -H CO to 43 OH g w 43 4-1 •H J5 tO CU SH rcC CO G • H fO rH Cu 4-J (0 CU S-i o G SH CU 43 4-1 SH O g cu 43 -1 i C •H I^s Cn SH 0) C W SH O m • 1,0 I H M £> • Pi >. in r~~ CA H «- ^_j O •H SH CU -P G H CU 43 4J m 0 4J C CU g 4-1 SH to Pi CU Q • • • O rH O CJ >^ H OJ [> G (U Q • G •H CO tO CQ 971 ------- TABLE 11-20: WATER SUPPLY AND USE IN THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER BASIN (1,000 acre-feet per year) TOTAL WATER SUPPLY & f\ Estimated depletions Irrigation Municipal and industrial Minerals and mining Thermal electric Other Reservoir -evaporation Total depletions MONTANA 20,141 2,280 99 10 1 204 603 3,197 WYOMING 7,884 1,245 29 55 3 172 1,504 Source: U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Westwide Study Report on Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western States. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1975, pp. 229, 300, 411, 412. Water supply and depletion estimates are only for the Upper Missouri portion of the states. The states include portions of other river basins as well. Interstate compacts exist for two rivers in the UMRB important for energy resource development: the Yellowstone and the Belle Fourche. The Belle Fourche River Compact1 apportions 90 percent of the unappropriated water of the river to South Dakota and 10 percent to Wyoming. The Yellowstone River Compact2 apportions the waters of the Yellowstone and its tributaries between Montana and Wyoming as follows: PERCENT TO: TRIBUTARY Clarks Fork Bighorn Tongue Powder WYOMING 60 80 40 42 MONTANA 40 20 60 58 1 Belle Fourche River Compact of 1943, 58 Stat. 94 (1944) 2Yellowstone River Compact of I960, 65 Stat. 663 (1953.). 972 ------- O o o H O Cn EH H en S > H H Pi K H Q # H 13 EH O U CO H S en « PH W O fu ft >H P EH H w J ffi H fY\| rH ^D rO £ rO _p c O g ^ £j S-l o X! tn •H CQ 4-1 rO j_j CU t> -H PH C J_\| O _c"j tP -H pq VD CTi ^f rO a rO 4-1 a o g k. £") -P •H U eo 0) rH •H g 4-1 ro SH CU > -H PH CU 3 CJi c o EH CN CN >. rH (0 C rO 4-1 C O g «. rr^J (0 CU X! S-l 0 O g 4-> rrj S-l CU £> -H Pi <^l -, 4-1 -H U in CU H •H g 4-J rO j_i CU j> •H PH CU c o 4-1 CO U O rH , — \| Q) , j * (0 4-1 O _y rO Q X! -P S-i O «. ty U J_j ro e in •H PQ 4-) ro SH 0) •H PH •H M 0 O in in •H S CU 4-1 -H H S-l CU en e rO S-l tr» •H rH rH -H e II en e en rQ •H ,H O en T3 CU j> rH O en CO •H t3 rH rO -P O 4-1 II en Q C-l CU I rO e rO rH U ^ Pi O n (0 CU S-l CQ o a; -P rO SH o •H CU 4-) C H • CU g X! rO 4-1 O O SH Cn 4-) a CQ CU cu g O 4-1 Lj t.i 3 rO O Q, CO CU CU Q en • C en •H • rO D Ol CM -P • ro 4J • CU G & SH O U g - £ -r- SH in cr> CU SjIrH X! C 4-1 -H - >H H C O rH O X -H -H cfl CQ 4J 973 ------- Based on these allocations and estimates of annual flow and present consumption on the Belle Fourche and Yellowstone, estimates have been made of unappropriated flow available to the states in- volved. These are shown in Table 11-22. The flow in the Yellow- stone basin available to Wyoming is estimated at 2.44 million acre- ft/yr; that available to Montana is estimated at 1 million acre- ft/yr. (2) Groundwater Aquifers in the UMRB include both deep and shallow aquifers in the bedrock as well as shallow aquifers in the alluvium above the bedrock. A total of about 860 million acre-ft of water is stored in these aquifers at a depth of less than 1,000 feet.1 The aquifers most likely to affect or be affected by our hypothe- sized energy developments are the Madison (which extends to several thousand feet in depth), several aquifers in the Fort Union Coal formation (which are less than a hundred feet deep), and alluvial aquifers associated with the major rivers and streams. The shallow bedrock and alluvial aquifers are not productive enough to be con- sidered as potential sources of water for energy facilities,2 but they will probably be used extensively to supply water for the associated population growth. If groundwater is used to help meet the demands of the energy conversion facilities, the Madison aquifer is the most likely source. The Madison aquifer is presently being studied as a possible water source for energy developments, although its hydrogeology is not completely understood.3 Some wells into the aquifer yield Missouri Basin Inter-Agency Committee. The Missouri River Basin Comprehensive Framework Study. Denver, Colo.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, 1971, Vol. 1, p. 63. 2Swenson, Frank A. "Potential of Madison Group and Associ- ated Rocks to Supply Industrial Water Needs, Powder River Basin, Wyoming and Montana," in Hadley, R.F., and David T. Snow, eds. Water Resources Problems Related to Mining. American Water Re- sources Association Proceedings, Vol. 18 (1974),p~.212. 3Swenson, Frank A. Possible Development of Water from Madison Group and Associated Rock in"~P"owder River Basin, Montana- Wyoming . Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974. 974 ------- CN i UNAPPROPRI LOW AVAILABLE (acre-ft/ E M rt EH O ^ g S EH 0 03 j MONTANA O S O g Q w — - EH >H < >i MO \ OS S 4J ft O MH O r-1 I OS PH 4) ft in ft 0 < (0 2 v D ,£ g^ wS* U (n > SM? w < i, > g S [^- rH IN IH 41 rl IH 4) £ D ai > ^ o > > -rf U rl •H -rl DS 0 3 K OS p., 0 C fa u Q) IH ra 4) 3 O .* 4) SH T3 C"X: rl rH 4) S C en 10 rH > O O -rl rH 4) -r) ft EH ta u « os 4) 4) U C rl O D 4J O in h 0 rl 4) rH 4) p— 1 r-H > rH 4) -H 4) >H OS « —7 Of 4-> 10 15 £ o 4J rl 0 dl 4) OS ..1 ., , 1 gement Team. 10 ? c « a E X 4- >1 tji c VJ C ft\ m C V W -r- If rl rfl 0 £. XH 0 g rl t 41 4J XI Ifl 4-> •£ rl 10 0 Q) •rl SH rl < 4) 4J 03 e c M -r-l 10 4) rH XI ft 4-1 4-> rl t-l IB (0 O d> 41 rl > 4J U -feet per Departme: Northern 41 1 >-i ri CnC X «H in 4J 4) H-l C C 1 41 U 4) .* rl 10 r- 0 EH O nj n UH C 4J 4) Ifl ;_4 r* • IN 1~- a> rH e" IB rl Cn O rl ft Cn C •H C C 10 rH ft Vj; 4) •t-* S tF C rt MH E O • O 1/1 E >i 1 rH Ifl S H 4) (H M > cn j 4) O •• • rH rl • QJ ft 0 0 >, - r- ens in tr, c 1— rH -H - <^ c 01 i-1 4) C C XI ifl C • 4J rH 4) >H ft >, O O 4) -H 4J in X! >H 41 cj 4) T3 4J 4J 4) (fl C 4J S • M 01 o 3 - rH 4) -i— i 4) x; T3 o . 4-> (0 -H O 14-J 2 *H 3 <4-\| O 0 O 4J rH ^« 4-) iw in o C - Q 41 H It 4) E 10 4) K 4J 3 41 >H C c - ro c -H tr a« cn c U C 'H 3 41 WE Cn O 10 0) >i " IH 4J S 4) 10 0 > 4-> C •H D CO rl 0 4) JO -• 4J •ri en in in e 10 ^ O -H 41 U 4J EX > in o 4J - -H >i -1 UK SO 3 J2 0 ^ 975 ------- more than 10,000 gpm, but most yield less than 1,000 gpm.l The Madison is recharged at high elevations where the limestone forming the aquifer crops out. High elevation rainfall and snowmelt are the primary sources of the water. Discharge from the Madison is to wells and, via leakage, into shallower aquifers. The quality of water in the Madison, as measured by TDS, ranges from less than 500 mg/X, near the recharge areas in the Powder River Basin to more than 4,000 mg/£ near the Montana-North Dakota line.2 In the Williston Basin area, where the water has been in the aquifer much longer, it is moderately to very saline according to the USGS classification system (3,000-10,000 mg/.'i) , and therefore not as likely to be used for energy facilities in the lignite fields of western North Dakota. Existing uses of Madison groundwater are for municipal, industrial, domestic, stock, and oil field water- flood purposes.3 Aquifers in the Fort Union Formation occur in both sandstone beds and coal seams. They are recharged from precipitation in high elevation areas and from surface streams. Most of these aquifers are at or near the water table depth. Water quality in F'ort Union aquifers varies depending on rock composition and how long the water has been in the aquifer. Existing uses are primarily for rural domestic supplies and stock watering. Alluvial aquifers are located below major rivers and streams in the basin. The total amount of water stored in these aquifers is not known, but the productivity of some is sufficient to supply irrigation wells that produce over 1,000 gpm. Water quality in alluvial aquifers is usually good unless recharge is from lower bedrock aquifers. Existing uses include supplying water for muni- cipal, domestic, stock, and irrigation needs. Groundwater use in the UMRB is limited by the large number of wells usually needed to produce high yields, the low permeability of the aquifers which limits the flow per well, and the lack of sufficient knowledge on the occurrence, location, and properties of the aquifers. ^.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. Plan of Study of the Hydrology of the Madison Limestone and Associated Rocks in Parts of Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming,Open-File Report 75-631.Denver,Colo.:Geological Survey, 1975, p. 3. 2Swenson, Frank A. Possible Development of Water from Madison Group and Associated Rock in~Powder River Basin, Montana- Wyoming. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974, p. 3. , 3U.S. Geological Survey. Hydrology of Madison Limestone. 976 ------- B. Water Requirements The water requirements for energy development in the UMRB have been calculated for the two levels of energy development postulated in Section 11.1. These requirements are shown in Table 11-23. Assuming high wet cooling, requirements for power plants and slurry pipelines are at least twice those of any other facil- ity. For the Low Demand case, total basinwide requirements by the year 2000 could reach almost 900,000 acre-ft/yr, assuming high wet cooling. If intermediate wet cooling is used by all con- version facilities, regional consumption in the UMRB for the Low Demand case in the year 2000 could be reduced by about 320,000 to 375,000 acre-ft.1 This is about a 40 percent reduction in water demand. Using minimal wet cooling could reduce requirements even further but at a higher economic cost.2 Water requirements resulting from the increases in population associated with the three levels of development are shown in Table 11-24. Assuming a daily consumption of 150 gallons per person, these water requirements do not exceed 87,000 acre-ft/yr in the Low Demand case, which is about 10 percent of that required for energy facilities. Total increased water requirements for energy development and related population increases in the UMRB in the year 2000 for the two levels of development are: Low Demand case, 969,000 acre-ft/yr and Nominal Demand case, 1,344,000 acre-ft/yr with high wet cooling. If intermediate wet cooling is used, water requirements could be reduced to 594,000 acre-ft/yr in the Low Demand case and 878,000 acre-ft/yr in the Nominal Demand case. C. Water Effluents Solid effluents and the quantity of wastewater produced by the energy facilities are given in Table 11-25 for the three time periods and two demand cases. For the Low Demand case, solid ef- fluents range from 5 (in 1980) to 39 (in 2000) million tons per year (MMtpy). The quantity of wastewater generated ranges from 10 (in 1980) to 61 (in 2000) thousand acre-ft/yr; this represents less than 10 percent of the water requirements. Harris, et al. Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. 2Analyses of the reduced water requirements of minimum wet cooling are presented in the site-specific chapters (7,8, and 9). These chapters should be referred to for additional details for facilities in the UMRB. 977 ------- OH tx r5 H U < CH Q) s Pi W W r3 -P H QJ Q) a, O i< W PM PQ I Q) Q CK M O 'O W H C S rt ns P CO rt O 3 H CO O & CO rC H j 1 tn K i D O fECTED M n I £ g Q Z U Q Z H § Z i Wrj < 2 W "l gg 2 W r, H gj •^ JS i H _ J 38 £8 EH 0" p^ Z "^ ^ MEDIATE ' :OOI,ING 2 u & W 5 0 2 i M O g J Q« U >H H W OH W CJ K rt * ^ u o: EH U rt & §8 X EH Ed 2 b w K £ \|g z d. "1= ^ M NTERMED] FET COOL H * U Z =3§ ^ O I u EH * >H t* H 1-1 (H u £ U vo ^ '"cn o in f • rH fN ' fN ' ' ' S S 1 7 o in •» oo • & ^o r^ oo 01 \o I1 ^r rH \|j \D I!-. vc in jj r- . . 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"^ Q) CU N N -H •H SH tn rd M 3 rd in 13 d 13 rd d -P id tn -P CU S-t XJ O -P ft 1,1 1 1 O MH 0) x: CTi -P 1 •^ -P 3 en 0 H XI cu en -P 3 ft O fd SH XI X{ 0 4J g d O Q) n e m 3 tn cu tn SH id rd in id SH -P 0 rd -P 13 U td CU in in CU 13 -H X! rd • EH O H CO rH rH SH CD ft w g d td d SH td •H"^ rH 13 . rH d ^ -H rd • g g rH CU rH 0 Q o c m U o O -H 'O 1-3 -P d — u id 0) 0 CO - m >iO o id "-P rrj v^o rH SH SH m cu CU MH ft O Q) d rd O in en * SH CU 0 cu in o ft rd o CU CN L_) S i CU O SH ft C rd •H CU tn j>i d d o o cu rH -H .£ rH -P -P id (d CflrH >, o ft oo — rH ft rH fd -P C rd • -H in g SH 13 O CU -H 2 -P rH — rd O £ in o CU 0 •P }H CN in cu - (d -P CTi !S -H "f rQ rH r~ 980 ------- D. Water Related Impacts of Energy Development in the Upper Missouri River Basin (1) Surface Water The water requirements for energy development through the year 2000, identified above, are 5 to 10 percent of the 12.5 million acre-ft estimated to be available for use in the UMRB. Because of the limited data on water availability and energy re- quirements for individual rivers in the UMRB, estimates cannot be made of the impacts that energy development might have on parti- cular rivers, although demands on the Yellowstone from Powder River coal development probably will be substantial. However, the overall impact on the basin from energy developments is not expected to be as serious as in the UCRB. However, water depletions in the UMRB may reduce the length of the navigation season in the Lower Missouri. One study has estimated that if an additional 10 million acre-ft/yr were with- drawn from UMRB, this season would drop from a nominal 8 months to zero for 11 of the next 75 years.1 If an additional 600,000 acre-ft/yr are withdrawn (approximately the amount required in our Low Demand, intermediate wet cooling case), the season would drop to zero for only one of the next 75 years.2 Much of the Fort Union Coal Region is in areas not served by nearby large streams; thus, a regional water system may be required to service a large part of the proposed development.3 If a re- gional water supply system is developed, there will be an effect on the river as well as on the land area disturbed by the construc- tion. The magnitude of the effect will be related to intake de- sign considerations and the amount of water withdrawn. Water quality impacts due to energy development in the UMRB have been estimated in other studies for levels of development similar to those assumed here and found to be small. TDS concen- tration increases in the Missouri River at Bismarck were estimated ^.S., Army, Corps of Engineers, Missouri River Division, Reservoir Control Center. Missouri River Main Stem Reservoirs Long Range Regulation Studies, Series 1-74. Omaha, Nebr.: Corps of Engineers, 1974, p. 23. 2U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage- ment Team. Report on Water for Energy in the Northern Great Plains Area with Emphasis on the Yellowstone River Basin. Denver, Colo.: Department of the Interior, 1975, p. V-21. 3U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Appraisal Report on Montana-Wyoming Aqueduct. Billings, Mont.: Bureau of Reclamation, 1974. 981 ------- to be from 13 mg/& to 454 mg/Jl.1 Changes in TDS concentrations in tributaries were highly variable, with increases predicted in some and decreases in others. Both the amount of change and direction depend on assumptions concerning level and type of development and the amount and quality of return flows to the streams. Although the most significant water-related impacts in the UMRB will be due to water depletions and changes in water quality, a number of additional impacts may also be important. These in- clude municipal and industrial water supply and wastewater treat- ment problems, in-stream water needs to support fish and wildlife, and disposal of effluents from energy facilities. Most of these impacts are discussed in the site-specific chapters and Chapter 10. (2) Groundwater Groundwater withdrawals could be increased by the projected energy resource development scenario. Some withdrawals will be for mine dewatering operations, but most withdrawals will be for consumption. Yield from shallow aquifers is not sufficient to meet the water needs of the energy conversion facilities.2 However, groundwater will probably make significant contributions to water supply for the associated population growth. Large-scale with- drawals could result in lowering of the aquifers' water levels in the vicinity of wells, which if large relative to the recharge rate, could cause wells, springs, and seeps to go dry, and lower base flows in streams and rivers. The Madison aquifer will probably be used if groundwater is needed for energy facilities. The Madison may be able to supply a significant fraction of the water required by some facilities, but groundwater mining may occur as a result.3 This has occurred 1 Northern Great Plains Resources Program. Water Work Group Repqrt. Billings, Mont.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, 1974, p. 66. 2Swenson, Frank A. "Potential of Madison Group and Associ- ated Rocks to Supply Industrial Water Needs, Powder River Basin, Wyoming and Montana," in Hadley, R.F., and David T. Snow, eds. Water Resources Problems Related to Mining. American Water Re- sources Association Proceedings, Vol. 18 (1974), p. 212. 3Swenson, Frank A. Possible Development of Water from Madison Group and Associated Rock in Powder River Basin, Montana- Wyoming. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Pro- gram,1974; U.S.,, Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. Plan of Study of the Hydrology of the Madison Limestone and Asso- ciated Rocks in Parts of Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, Open-File Report 75-631. Denver, Colo.: Geological Survey, 1975. 982 ------- in the vicinity of Midwest, Wyoming, where about 12-14 wells were drilled for waterflood supplies for oil field secondary recovery. This development caused a decline of 3,000 feet in the water levels in wells, with an area of influence extending under six townships.1 Mining also may affect local groundwater systems by interrupting or changing aquifer flow and by introducing•effluents into ground- water aquifers. Mining and energy conversion facility effects on groundwater systems in the UMRB will be similar to those described earlier for the UCRB. However, a number of possible impacts cannot be ade- quately assessed because of a lack of detailed knowledge about UMRB groundwater. Data on both the rate of movement of ground- water and the fate and effects of pollutants in groundwater systems are needed.2 Estimates of the amount of waste generated for the conversion processes have been summarized in Table 11-25. Most of the residuals will be produced by the power plants and gasifi- cation facilities.3 11.3.4 Summary of Regional Water Impacts A. Upper Colorado River Basin In the UCRB, water demands for energy uses for the year 2000 will be 15 to 64 percent of presently unallocated water for the two levels of energy development being considered. If intermediate wet cooling is used for power plants and coal synfuel facilities, this demand can be reduced by about 60,000 acre-ft (20 percent reduction) in the Low Demand case and about 91,000 acre-ft (about 7 percent) in the Nominal case. Meeting these water requirements will increase the salinity of the Colorado even if no pollutants are discharged from the ^wenson, Frank A. "Potential of Madison Group and Associ- ated Rocks to Supply Industrial Water Needs, Powder River Basin, Wyoming and Montana," in Hadley, R.F., and David T. Snow, eds. Water Resources Problems Related to Mining. American Water Re- sources Association Proceedings, Vol. 18,(1974) , p~. 217. 2Northern Great Plains Resources Program, Water Work Group, Groundwater Subgroup. Shallow Ground Water in Selected Areas in the Fort Union Coal Region, Open-File Report 74-48. Helena, Mont.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey, 1974, p. 13. 3Problems and issues related to holding ponds disposal of effluents are discussed in Chapter 5 of White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Policy Analysis Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,forthcoming. 983 ------- facilities. This will occur because water consumption by energy resource facilities will concentrate salt levels. Groundwater and surface water must be considered parts of a single resource system if water management is to be well-informed. Groundwater resources will be used primarily for municipalities, and both municipal withdrawals and possible groundwater pollution from sewage disposal will affect the resource. An additional groundwater impact may occur as a result, of mine dewatering. B. Upper Missouri River Basin Impacts on the UMRB due to energy development will not be as serious as those in the UCRB, primarily because considerably more water is available in the Missouri. Based on regionwide figures, energy facilities will require 8 to 11 percent of the water avail- able in the year 2000 for the two demand scenarios considered. If intermediate wet cooling is used, demand could be reduced about 375,000 acre-ft (about 40 percent reduction) for the Low Demand case in the year 2000. In the Nominal case, demands could be reduced about 465,000 acre-ft (35 percent) by the year 2000. The navigation season on the Lower Missouri will be reduced as a result of depletions for energy facilities in the Upper Basin. Depletions of 600,000 acre-ft/yr would result in one of the next 75 years having no navigation season; depletions of 10 million acre-ft/yr would result in 11 of the next 75 years having no navi- gation season. Groundwater from the Madison aquifer may be used to supple- ment surface water for energy facilities in the UMRB. Because of low porosity in the aquifer, municipal users of this groundwater source may be affected. Drilling deeper wells or finding supple- mental municipal sources may be necessary. However, these assess- ments are tentative because of insufficient information about groundwater resources in the basin. 11.4 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS 11.4.1 Introduction In this section, social and economic impacts of western energy development are analyzed and discussed for the western region and, in some aspects, for the nation as a whole. Population impacts are considered first, primarily in terms of net population changes expected in the West as a result of each of the two levels of energy resource development being examined. Following is an eco- nomic and fiscal analysis which estimates changes in personal in- come, public services, and economic structure in the western region. Social and cultural effects and political and governmental impacts are discussed next, followed by an analysis of impacts on the availability of personnel, materials and equipment, and capital. 984 ------- 11.4.2 Population Impacts This section analyzes the large-scale, regionwide population changes due to western energy developments in contrast to the site- specific analyses reported in Chapters 4-9. For both the Nominal case and Low Demand case of the SRI model described in Section 1 of this chapter, manpower requirements for construction and opera- tion were obtained from the Bechtel Energy Supply Planning Model.1 Average (rather than peak) construction employment was used for each of the energy facilities that are projected to be built in the various time periods. The population changes are discussed first for the entire eight-state area and then for selected sub- regions where energy development is expected to be concentrated. A. Regionwide One of the most important factors that will influence popula- tion change is the number and location of the necessary personnel. These can be considered as two specific questions: how many of the required workers will be available locally, and where will the others come from? A greater availability of local workers will decrease the need for in-migration. Limited information on the West indicates that about 46 per- cent of the energy construction workforce is found locally in the Four Corners states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah), and about 34 percent locally in the Northern Great Plains states (Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming).2 In the future, as energy development increases, more workers are likely to move into the area from outside the West, and proportionately fewer workers will probably be available from within the region. In the absence of other data, the available estimate of 66 percent net in-migration to Northern Great Plains localities and 54 per- cent to local areas in the Four Corners states are used here.3 Employment in energy development of in-migrants to an area generally induces secondary employment in other industries and, therefore, additional population in families. Table 11-26 lists the employment multiplier for operation, which represents the number of new jobs in other industries induced by one energy job, and the population multiplier, which represents family size or ^arrasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975. 2Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976, pp. 14-17. 3 Ibid. These figures appear to balance future in-migration to the region with movements within and among the western states. 985 ------- TABLE 11-26: EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION MULTIPLIERS FOR OPERATION PHASE YEAR 1980 1.985 1990 2000 EMPLOYMENT MULTIPLIER 0.4 0. 8 0.8 1.0 POPULATION MULTIPLIER 3 3 3 3 the number of people per employee. The employment and population multipliers for the construction phase of a facility were combined for simplicity into a single figure Of 2.0, which may underesti- mate the population impacts of construction in some areas. Population impacts of energy facility construction and opera- tion for the SRI Nominal and Low Demand cases were estimated with an economic base model methodology, using the multipliers above.1 Construction-related, operation-related, and overall population increases for the eight-state region are included in Table 11-27. The estimated trend shows that in both the Nominal and Low Demand cases, the greatest population gains will occur during the 1990's. An overall regional addition of about 660,000 people is likely by 2000 in the Low Demand scenario. Construction employment is rela- tively more important during the late 1970"s and the 1990's when the rate of energy development is projected to be the greatest. Although the population increases are not large on a regionwide scale (less than a seven percent increase over the 1975 population of 9,551,000 for the Low Demand case in 2000), the impacts will not be evenly distributed. In fact, the parts of the West likely to receive the greatest energy-related population increases are those with the smallest current populations, not the metropolitan areas which account for about half of the region's present popula- tion. xThis methodology is commonly used to assess energy develop- ment impacts. See Crawford, A.B., H.H. Fullerton, and W.C. Lewis. Socio-Economic Impact Study of Oil Shale Development in the Uintah f il< Basin, for White River Shale Project. Providence, Utah: Western Environmental Associates, 1975, pp. 147-58; Stenehjem, Erik J. Forecasting the Local Economic Impacts of Energy Resource Develop- ment; A Methodological Approach, ANL/AA-3. Argonne National Laboratory, 1975. Argonne, 111, 986 ------- TABLE 11-27: POPULATION INCREASES IN WESTERN STATES AFTER 1975 DUE TO ENERGY DEVELOPMENT YEAR 1980 1985 1990 2000 SRI CASE Nominal Low Demand Nominal Low Demand Nominal Low Demand Nominal Low Demand CONSTRUCTION- RELATED3 38,900 31,600 38,900 32,400 39,500 20,900 386,500 187,300 OPERATION- RELATED 59,600 45, 000 179,400 118,200 241,400 157,200 861,100 474,600 OVERALL INCREASE 98,500 76,700 218,300 150,600 280,900 178,100 1,247,600 661,900 SRI = Stanford Research Institute 3. Based on the average annual construction employment for the construction period of each facility and the pro- jected number of facilities. B. Subregional Disaggregation of the energy supply areas provides an analy- sis of subregional impacts on state and substate areas (Table 11- 28). Considerable error is potentially built into this procedure, even on the state level; for example, potential development in South Dakota and Arizona is approximated as zero. County-level projections appear to include many reasonable locations within states but occasionally concentrate resource development in too few areas. The substate areas where populations vary most between the two levels of development are those where oil shale resources are located. Aggregating the data in Table 11-28 by state, and separating construction and operation-based population, illustrates the dis- tribution of impacts among the western states (Table 11-29). Overall, the Low Demand case would result in a population increase 47 percent below that of the Nominal case, with the greatest dif- ference in Utah (89 percent lower) and in Colorado (73 percent lower) because of differences in oil shale production between the two cases. The largest absolute and relative growth is expected in the coal areas of the Northern Great Plains states of Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming, where operation-related population increases of 19.8 percent, 17.9 percent, and 27.4 percent, respec- tively, are projected due to Low Demand levels of energy development 987 ------- TABLE 11-28: PERMANENT POPULATION ADDITIONS AFTER 1975 FOR ENERGY AREAS OF SIX WESTERN STATES COLORADO GARFIELD, MESA, AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES ASEA YEAR 1980 1985 1990 2000 NOMINAL CASE 1,800 17,300 34,600 240,800 LOW DEMAND CASE 0 0 7,500 55,100 HUERFANO COUNTY AREA NOMINAL CASE LOW DEMAND CASE 0 11,600 11,603 12,700 3,600 9,300 11,200 12,700 UTAH KANE AND GARFIELD COUNTIES AREA YEAR 1980 1985 1990 2000 NOMINAL CASE 6,400 10,800 12,200 12,800 LOW DEMAND CASE 2,200 2,900 2,900 3,100 UINTAH AND GRAND COUNT IBS 'AREA NOMINAL CASE 0 600 500 27,000 LOW DEMAND CASE 0 0 0 2,100 NEW MEXICO NORTHWESTERN AREA (SAN JUAN, MCKINLEY, AND VALENCIA COUNTIES) YEAR S NOMINAL CASE LOW DEMAND CASE SOUTHEASTERN AREA (LEA, EDDY, ROOSEVELT , AND CHAVES COUNTIES) NOMINAL CASE \| LOW DEMAND CASE 1980 1985 1990 2000 6,300 14,600 20,600 54,200 3,700 11,400 15,200 35,700 9,930 12,900 6,900 0 8,200 10,500 4,800 0 MONTANA BIG HORN, ROSEBUD, AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES AREA YEAR 1980 1985 1990 2000 NOMINAL CASE 11,600 5 3,400 74,300 215, 100 LOW DEMAND CASE 10 ,400 38,100 48 ,900 149,400 1 WYOMING CAMPBELL COUNTY AREA YEAR 1980 1985 1990 2000 NOMINAL CASE 14,200 25,000 32,200 1 81,100 CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING (JOHNSON, SHERIDAN, CONVERSE, NATRONA, CARBON, FREMONT, AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES) LOW DEMAND CASE NOMINAL CASE 8,800 19 ,800 26,300 52,300 2,400 10.0CO 12, SCO 68,900 LOW DEMAND CASE 900 7,200 10,200 50,300 WEST CENTRAL AREA (DUNN, MCLEAN, MERCER, AND OLIVER COUNTIES) YEAR 1980 1985 1990 2000 NOMINAL CASE 7,000 14,000 21,400 84,600 LOW DEMAND CASE 7,000 14,500 23,600 52,400 SOUTHWESTERN AREA (BILLINGS, BOWMAN, HETHINGER, MCKEN3IE, SLOPE, STARK, AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES) NOMINAL CASE ! LOW DEMAND CASE o i o 4,500 j 4,600 13,800 \| 4,600 61,700 i 61,500 988 ------- UO Pi w EH CO w EH < EH CO H EH CO w EH 2 CO O CO W w w K Q U 2 W O 2 H W H ) •£• ^ , 1 -H ^ . — 1 5 '~\ > ^ ^ e 5 £ H w E"j f3 EH CO O O O O o o o o us oo r- oo oo CTI oo r- rH VD o o o o o o o o ^ VD CO VD 00 CTi CM 0 O O 0 0 O 0 0 00 UO CM UO rH CTi U3 OO CM ^i< in CM O 0 0 0 O 0 0 0 CM rH rH CM 00 rH CM rH rH CM rH o m o o 00 00 CTi O CTi CTi CT* O rH rH rH CM T OO UO • CM o fd ^_i O rH O u 0 O 0 0 o o o o i — i CTt i — i r~ CN rH O UO rH CM CM 00 O O O O O O O O r~ uo oo 3" CN 00 00 rH O O O 0 O O O 0 CN VO UO 00 vo r1" r""' ^^ rH CM CN UO 0 O 0 0 O O O 0 VX3 00 CN 00 UO rH rH 00 rH rH o uo o o CO 00 CTi O CTi CTi CTi O H rH rH CN f- ^J1 rH • rH o u •H X (U g jj (U 2 o o o o o o o o CN CTi CTt CN CM CM CM UO O O O O 0 0 [^ rH CN T O O 0 0 O 0 0 O ^•j* ^^ r" oo U> rH CN CTi rH rH 00 0 O O 0 O O O 0 H ^r in o oo CM in rH o in o o oo oo CTI o CTi CT* CT1 O rH rH rH CN ^O 0 CM • rH r\ fd -P D O O O O o o o o ^* 1 — 1 CTi ^* O OO OO CTi i — I OO ^* ^* rH o o o o o o o o CTi "3* CM UO •^ CTI CM r^- uo O 0 O O o o o o VO ^ 00 rH rH 00 ^ UO rH UO t^ rH CN o o o o o o o o ^ CN 'S' 00 r- CN o o rH rH OO O UO O O 00 00 CTi O CTi CTi CTi O rH rH rH CN 00 •^r r~ • (d rjj fd 4J £ o s o o o o O 0 0 0 0 0 rH CTi t~- CTi O OO rH 00 rH rH o o o o o o o o CM ^S1 O"l ^J1 VD VJ3 CTi rH VD 0 0 0 O O O O O o in CM oo r^ CN in oo CM OO ^ rH o o o o o o o o CM OO ^" f~" VD CTi CM O rH 0 rH o m o o 00 00 CTi O CTi CTi CTi O rH rH rH CM UO OO U3 • id 4J o ^ Q r\| 4-1 JH C t — f- O O O O O 0 0 O r~- o in I>D CTI r- u> CN CN 00 O rH O O O O 0000 r~ CTI o oo ^ ^j. ^j. ,H 00 O O 0 O o o o o VD O O O VD UO UO O rH oo ^r uo rH o o o o o o o o •^r VD CTI oo V£> «^ rH ^ uo o m o o 00 00 CTi O CTi CTi CTi O rH rH rH CM ^ r- oo • Cn C •H e o >-( s 989 ------- A comparison of the energy-related population growth projected here with a set of projections for the same period based on long- term trends made by the Department of Commerce's Office of Business Economics (now the Bureau of Economic Analysis) and the Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service (OBERS projections) gives an indication of the relative magnitude of energy-related impacts (Table 11-30).l The OBERS projections merely extend past trends into the future, with the result that: the out-migration in the Northern Great Plains is expected to continue; such rapidly growing metropolitan areas as Denver, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and Albuquerque are projected to continue growing; and mining activity in the West is expected to continue the trend experienced through about 1970. This involves very slow growth when compared with current activity. Because of recent events, which have broken some seemingly long-term trends, the actual population and eco- nomic activity levels in the West through 1975 show the OBERS projections to be large underestimates.2 Since energy develop- ment is the major impetus for reversal of the trends in the Northern Great Plains states, and is a considerable stimulus in the Four Corners states, the OBERS projections can be assumed to be the likely state of the western region in the absence of energy development. Thus, the greatest impact from energy development will be in those states which were expected to continue to lose population (generally the Northern Great Plains), whereas the smallest impact will be in those states where other growth was projected (the Four Corners states). To summarize, the population impacts from western energy developments will not be large regionwide (at most a 13 percent increase in the Nominal case through 2000). However, these devel- opments will largely take place far from the metropolitan areas and will impact small towns and rural areas most. In some areas, a 10-fold population increase by 2000 is possible under conditions similar to the levels of development considered here. Examples of effects in these areas are included in the site-specific analyses of chapters 4-9. ^.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. 197J! OBERS Projections: Economic Activity in the U.S., Vol. 4: States, for the U.S. Water Resources Council. Washington, D.C.: Govern- ment Printing Office, 1974. 2U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Analysis Division. "Tracking the BEA State Economic Projections." Survey of Current Business, Vol. 56 (April 1976), pp. 22-29. For example, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming have grown in population in contrast to projected steady declines. New Mexico is nearing its projected population for the year 2000; all other states in the region also are well above the estimates. 990 ------- TABLE 11-30: COMPARISON OF POPULATION INCREASES FOR LOW DEMAND CASE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT WITH OBERS POPULATION PROJECTIONS, 1980-2000 STATE Colorado New Mexico Utah Montana North Dakota Wyoming Arizona0 South Dakota0 YEAR 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000 ENERGY- RELATED POPULATION INCREASE3 4,000 22,600 97,400 24,800 20,900 39,100 4,900 2,900 9,300 15,300 51,100 206,900 13,200 40,000 175,300 14,400 40,500 133,800 OBERS PROJECTION11 2,586,100 2,889,900 3,134,100 1,054,900 1,131,200 1,180,400 1,160,100 1,309,600 1,412,100 669,700 664,500 656,400 578,700 563,400 545,200 330,900 334,000 333,400 2,225,900 2,700,900 3,065,500 654,500 647,500 637,000 ENERGY-RELATED INCREASE AS A PERCENTAGE OF OBERS PROJECTION 0.2 0.8 3.1 2.4 1.8 3.3 0.4 0.2 0.6 2.3 7.6 30.1 2.3 7.0 32.1 4.3 12.1 40.1 ACTUAL 1975 POPULATION 2,534,000 1,147,000 1,206,000 748,000 635,000 374,000 2,224,000 683,000 Operation plus construction phases; from Table 11-29. Source: U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Depart- ment of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. 1972 OBERS Projections: Eco- nomic Activity in the U.S., Vol. 4: Council. Washington, D.C.: States, for the U.S. Water Resources Government Printing Office, 1974. cArizona and South Dakota were not expected to be significantly impacted directly by the levels of energy development analyzed. See Section 11.1. 991 ------- 11.4.3 Economic Impacts A. Personal Income New income will be generated in the region because of job opportunities for both newcomers and current residents. Based on the population increases shown in Table 11-30 and income data for workers in communities with energy development,1 changes to states' aggregate personal incomes and per capita income for the Low De- mand case energy development can be estimated (Table 11-31). According to these projections, energy development is expec- ted to increase total income in the six-state area by about 16 percent2 over the 25-year period, an absolute increase from $35.8 to $41.4 billion per year. Further, most of the increase would occur during the 1990's, corresponding to the most intensive energy development. Thus, energy development alone would induce an annual growth rate of income of 1.06 percent during that decade. On the state level, Wyoming would experience the greatest relative gain in aggregate personal income (+51.9 percent over the quarter-century), and Utah would experience the least (+1.4 percent). By the per capita measure, Montana would make the greatest absolute gain ($630 per year),, and Utah would have the least ($30 per year).4 The only change in rank order on the basis of per capita incomes will occur in the 1990's when Wyoming is expected to surpass Colorado. These increases in per capita income would be due in large part to construction because construction labor generally is paid more than operational labor. In fact, in three states (North Dakota, Wyoming, and Colorado) current per capita incomes are higher than the average assumed for new operation workers and their families ($5,660). This is because of current construction and other high-wage occupations. High agricultural income in 1969, fountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976, p. 50. 2An annual growth rate of 0.5 percent (compound). This is in addition to income growth from other sources, such as produc- tivity gains and national trends. 3The 1975 aggregate income value of $35.8 billion per year plus $5.6 billion expected increase by 2000 from Table 11-31 gives the total of $41.4 billion per year. "Although not calculated bf>'e, South Dakota and Arizona will experience the least new energ- development of the eight states studied and the smallest income gains from new energy developments. 992 ------- W U D 2 % H Z EH W 2 W Q H W Pi EH W to to 2 WWW & W <3 x to ffi H H O W rH H J O DH T3 CJ LH O r- uo rH CTl O H EH W to o o & CO O i< to r"H £H EH W O H S -H Q O rH Q U H i U S D S S & 00 cn in •. m CM oo OO rH cr\ 0 >. rH CN i-D rH rd 4J O EH CU 4J rd 4J to X •H to O rH 00 in o in in o ^ m in o oo m in m r-^ ^ in cu Cn rd SH cu £> < CD 4J rd 4J CO X to 1 CU X! g -P O -H O £ C •H JH O CU X! X! rd -P rH Ij t i 0 0 4H 14H CU C Cn o C -H rd -P SH -H 4J SH 0) . O PJ S-i SH g (U SH O -P CU 0 fd CD rrX t i li CU O Cn -P rd to cu g T3X! •H G -P CU O tO SH -P CD -P CO SH rH CD 3 fd to O G rd O CD • -rH S-\| CU -P O to rd G fd 3 -H X! CU rd • g -P 0 to G O rd CU C O -H to SH G 0) CD O &i to •H CD -POX; U CN -P CD +1 •i— i CD O rH [0 SH rd 3 H G fd O U C -H O -P TJ •H -H rH -P >d 3 rd t) O rH rd CJ rj Pi r! r! 0 rd 0 Pl -rH to cn cu -H CD X! S-i -p to CU CD X! Cnx! •P C -P •H (rt S X! G nJ O -iH to CD g •H -P CU CD SH _(-] 4-1 -P 3 O 'fd CD X! T3 rH rjj o 5 to CD g 0 U G •H r^ rH O <~; CU to rj O ,G SH O >-i rH -r-j g rd m ••. to cu g 0 u c •H rd jJ •H Oj (d U SH • cu to &4 CU SH CD 3 SH Cn rd -H ii_i CD tO CD cu to X! CD ^ 4J 993 ------- the year of census data collection, caused some problems with income comparisons. Thus, incomes in some areas may slip to about current levels when energy-related construction diminishes. B. Current Economic Structure The economic structures of the eight states vary considerably, with agriculture dominating in the Northern Great Plains and tourist-related service activities dominating in the Four Corners states (Table 11-32). Manufacturing activities are less important in the region than nationally, and federal government employment is greater. Although accounting for only a small proportion of income compared to other sectors, mining and energy development income is particularly important in Wyoming, New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah. The energy resource areas within the region are also the areas with the greatest current agricultural activities.1 This suggests that the land-use, water-use, employment, and income impacts of energy resource development will fall disproportionately on agri- culture. However, employment impacts are difficult to predict since employment in agriculture has been declining. Furthermore, energy development may hold and/or bring back young people who have been moving out of the region, in addition to bringing new in-migration. Agricultural income has been increasing, although employment on farms is declining. The relative economic importance of agriculture is better indicated by total farm income (as shown in Table 11-32) than by employment trends. C. Secondary Industrial Impacts2 There are two general types of secondary industrial effects from energy development: (1) the attraction of large industries directly linked to energy facilities, such as plants to process by-products of coal gasification plants; and (2) local and re- gional service industries that respond to population growth to serve residential and business customers. Linked industries may be classified as upstream (or supplier firms) and downstream (or user firms). Upstream industries are those that supply inputs to an industry, such as equipment 1 Detailed breakdowns of income by industry and local area can be found in U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Local Area Personal Income,." Survey of Current Busi- ness, Vol. 54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75. 2This discussion is taken in part from University of Denver Research Institute, Industrial Economics Division. Methodology Papers; Linked Industry. Denver, Colo.: University of Denver Research Institute, 1977. 994 ------- CN m I W j §< 15 2 M O s gg a § 2 Q 2 H 2 2 0 tsi M a EH O S .. "x z w o Q o 0 u D . POLITAN AGE U. NONMETRO AVER w "I SECTOR & en CN „, o > 00 tN ^ rH m ro r- CN in in CN CN rH ro ro Farm •«• in r^ in r- T 00 in o m en CN rH CN O rH ro VD in m ^ Federal Government Civilian m ro CO ro rH ve en CM in ' cr. iH in in m •* cn & rH in rH cn in rH r <£> cn in rH O CN C^ CN 1 Manufacturing rH rH rH rH rH CO o cn CN CN ' cn ro r in 00 rH CN O rH Mining ^ o rH ID cn ro r- oa VO u> ' CN ^ ^ ^ ^ CO in ro \D Contract Construction j Transportation, CO in rr o rH <£> VO cn 00 rH vo CN 00 •>r r~ ^ in ro r- Communication, and Utilities in in rH r- ro rH r- rH r m rH ^T rH CN rH CN in rH cn r~- rH rH rH •3- rH [wholesale and Retail in ro ro ro ^r m ^ ro cn in rr ^r T " cn in CO CN r in Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate * o rH in o rH cn cn ^ rH rH O rH ro ro rH ro rH cn rH CM rH rH _, in rH [ Services ,rH rH CD CO •» > e i M < 00 •H • e a = o a • c 0) O - e o — o w T O r~- C "H 01 H O H rH D JJ CO f3 w C CD 3 0 >H tJi tn 3 g >H CO < CD — & » (U in co CJ in (U 1H H 0) • < § in E 0 rH O > C8 U y O >H W J O 01 = 1 IB 4J rH a c 1C 0) CD C Q ^ < M o • u •H W e • ^ ODD C 0 T! >i U C 0) W ro > M UH ^ g 0 m w r~- D I CO rH : 0) M • ro D Q, a ^3 CD ^r D m CD . •§ • rH O c/i O C . > H 0) CO •• tn c v Hi 0 o c 01 u -H u •3 01 ------- uppliers and manufacturers, machine shops, and electric power suppliers.1 Downstream industries include intermediate processors (such as producers of intermediate petrochemical products and electrolytically processed metals) and end producers, such as plastic products. (1) Supplier or Upstream Industries Supplier industries are easily identified on an aggregate national basis in input-output tables, such as those published by the U.S. Department of Commerce2 and the data embodied in the SEAS.3 However, both of these provide only national perspectives, not regional ones. The national data reflect aggregate linkages among industries, and effects on particular industries will be felt only in locations where those industries are present. Avail- able models include only current or historical data, which empha- size large industrial cities and deemphasize the potential effects on western urban areas. Where a wide industry mix already exists, it is more likely that industries will see an increase in produc- tion from major needs, such as steel, arising from anywhere in the country. This is why Birmingham, Pittsburgh, and Duluth are the three metropolitan areas projected ~o be most affected by in- creased western energy development.14 In general, urban areas in the West (including Albuquerque, Billings, Denver, and Salt Lake City) receive a much smaller effect of secondary industrial devel- opment than do urban areas in the northeast or West Coast (e.g., Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Los Angeles).5 Al- though past trends cannot be expected to continue completely, it is still certain that the bulk of industrial expansion attributable to energy development will take place in existing or growing in- dustrial complexes. Of western cities, the Salt Lake City area 1 Some projections of input needs and impacts on producing industries and regions are included in Section 11.4.8. 2U.S., Department of Commerce. Input/Output Structure of the U.S. Economy, 1967. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973. 3SEAS is summarized and applied to the western energy cpntext in White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: A Progress Report of a Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource De- velopment. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977, Vol. II, pp. 828-38 and in Section 11.4.8 below. ''Ibid. , Vol. II, p. 837. 5Control Data Corporation and International Research and Technology Corporation. Scenario Run Analysis: Western Energy Development. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Technical Information Division, 1977. 996 ------- contains the industry mix in steel and nonferrous metals most likely to be affected.1 (2) User or Downstream Industries User industries are rarely, if ever, included in development plans for energy facilities, and information for an adequate impact analysis is virtually nonexistent. One reason for this may be the uncertainty associated with the magnitude, duration, and timing of linked industry development. Downstream industries may not have an adequate market even though their potential inputs may be assured by energy facility by-products. Trade-off decisions must be made between transport costs and relocation costs by linked in- dustry firms established in other locations. In addition, the life of the energy resource at a location or within an area may be difficult to predict.2 For some energy projects, the by-products from processing an energy resource, and other minerals occurring in a resource area, are easily identified. Coal gasification by the Lurgi process produces six major by-products in substantial quantities (Table 11-33). These by-products can be processed near the plant site if the volume produced provides a sufficiently reliable source of raw material to processing industries. A minimum of three to four Lurgi plants is currently considered adequate to attract firms that would use the by-products. Otherwise, the by-products would be transported out of the area to purchasing firms. Oil shale development involves by-products both from mining and from retorting. Other minerals such as dawsonite and nahcolite occur interspersed with oil shale and can be extracted from lateral shafts. Dawsonite is a source of alumina that can compete with foreign bauxite for the aluminum industry. Nahcolite is naturally occurring sodium bicarbonate (baking soda), which has several com- mercial uses including use as an FGD agent. The baking soda alter- native for FGD is not feasible without a nahcolite source because industrially refined baking soda is prohibitively expensive. The possibilities of multimineral mining, including other minerals along with oil shale in western Colorado, improve the economic Control Data Corporation and International Research and Technology Corporation. Scenario Run Analysis: Western Energy Development. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Technical Information Division, 1977. 2University of Denver Research Institute, Industrial Economics Division. Methodology Papers: Linked Industry. Denver, Colo.: University of Denver Research Institute, 1977, pp. 2-3. 3Morrison-Knudsen Company. Navajo New Town Feasibility Over- view. Boise, Idaho: Morrison-Knudsen, 1975. 997 ------- TABLE 11-33: SALABLE BY-PRODUCTS FROM LURGI COAL GASIFICATION (tons per year)a BY-PRODUCT Sulfur Crude Phenols Naphtha Tar Oils Tar Anhydrous Ammonia QUANTITY PRODUCED 67,230 33,870 104,940 176,290 246,680 68,410 Source: U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Western Gasifica- tion Company (WESCO) Coal Gasification Project and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., San Juan County, New Mexico; Final Environmental Impact Statement, 2 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Reclamation, 1976. Based on 7,970 hours/year of a 250 mil- lion standard cubic feet per day plant. Does not include in-plant usage. viability of oil shale.l Flue gas cleaning using baking soda may also allow sulfur to be produced as a by-product from power plants at a cost much lower than current sulfur production.2 Oil shale surface retorting produces coke, low British ther- mal unit (Btu) gas, ammonia, and sulfur. The low-Btu gas can be expected to be used in the oil shale facilities.3 The remaining by-products could be sold to firms that need them as inputs, al- though the products are likely to be transported out of the region to existing processing plants until supplies become great enough in an area to attract investment in a plant there. The value of ^trabala, Bill. "Colorado Nahcolite Venture Planned." Denver Post, October 10, 1976; Strabala, Bill. "Oil Shale Mine to Test Multimineral Leasing Plan." Denver Post, July 3, 1977. 2 "A Growing Squeeze on Sulfur." Business Week, August 22, 1977, pp. 64-65. 3Just, J., et al. New Energy Technology Coefficients and Dynamic Energy Models. McLean, Va.: MITRE Corporation, 1975, Vol. 1, p. 57. 998 ------- these products from a 50,000 bbl/day plant annually is about $5.6 million (1975 dollars).1 (3) Service Industries More local secondary effects are virtually impossible to pre- dict with locational and temporal accuracy. These industries in- clude machine shops, supply houses, machinery parts dealers, accounting firms, and other businesses that are needed to serve some needs of energy developers. A major difficulty in projections is the trend among many developers and construction contractors to provide most or all of these services for themselves. It is ex- tremely difficult to predict when enough firms would be present in an area to create the need for a single, lower-cost, specialized entrepreneur in these businesses. This is most probable in larger cities, such as Casper and Grand Junction, where the business mar- ket in the area is larger. A second type of service industry is wholesale and retail trade, which is related to population growth but has strong ten- dencies to concentrate in large cities. Although the retail sec- tor grows along with population in any small town, a significant fraction of retail expansion takes place in larger cities, and nearly all wholesale activities are located there. Large cities serve as market centers for large regions, and are less affected by the cyclical population changes in any small town. As a town grows, it adds new businesses of a higher-order nature, but a larger city acquires more businesses from growth anywhere in an extended market area. There is a fairly consistent progression of businesses related to population size that could be expected to be replicated in the West.2 These range, for example, from service stations to drugstores to furniture stores and reflect the available population in the town's market area. Some market center relationships in the West will probably change as a result of energy development, such as Gillette becoming more important than Sheridan as a retail center in northern Wyoming. However, the largest absolute service growth will tend to concen- trate in existing large centers. This growth is of a cumulative nature and merely causes more growth as a result.3 xJust, J., et al. New Energy Technology Coefficients and Dynamic Energy Models. McLean, Va.: MITRE Corporation, 1975, Vol. 2, p. 139, updated to 1975 dollars. 2Berry, B.J.L. The Geography of Market Centers and Retail Distribution. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.:Prentice-Hall, 1967. 3Pred, A.R. City-Systems in Advanced Economies. New York, N.Y.: Wiley, 1977. 999 ------- D. Local Inflation Price levels have always been somewhat higher in sparsely settled areas for two primary reasons: transportation costs from places of manufacture, and lack of competition in small towns. The only items with consistently lower prices tend to be those produced locally, such as meat in most western locations. When isolated towns "boom", the demand for goods and services increases, and prices rise, and/or shortages occur. In recent western boomtowns, residents have expressed dissatisfaction with the availability of certain items more often than others; especially housing, land, and professional and retail services.1 Employers have also experienced a general shortage; of labor. However, the retailing sector tends to respond quickly and, in fact, local con- sumers eventually have access to a greater variety of goods when larger, more specialized stores are built. Boomtown inflation affects different people in various ways. Generally, inflation will benefit sellers and increase costs for buyers. For example, landowners will benefit if they sell, but renters will suffer from higher rents. Depending on methods of property taxation, landowners must pay taxes with higher assessed valuations on their holdings. In the local labor market, employers will suffer from increased wages while workers will benefit. In- creased wages will usually more than conpensate for increased prices, but some people, especially retirees, may not be in a position to take advantage of the improved employment conditions. Retirees also are adversely affected by property tax increases, and in some areas many have been forced to sell their homes. Local government also acts as a participant in the local eco- nomy. As a buyer, it mainly purchases labor and must compete with the energy developers. Since most taxes are based on property assessments, revenues will eventually rise with the general pace of inflation. However, assessments are often out of date; thus, revenues may lag behind local governmental expenditures.2 Perma- nent increases in tax rates should not be necessary. In fact, rates can be expected to decline for some county governments after tax revenues begin to outpace needs. West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976. 2Fiscal impacts on local government are considered in more detail in the social and economic section of Chapters 4-9. 1000 ------- 11.4.4 Public Services A. Expenditures Much of the development of energy resources in the West will occur in sparsely populated areas. Some communities of less than 5,000 people will increase their populations many times over. Thus, large investments in public facilities will be required, and operating expenses will be much higher than before the boom. Pub- lic investments at the local level will be devoted largely to water supply, sewage treatment, and school buildings (Table 11-34).1 Altogether the Low Demand case level of development would necessi- tate local capital expenditures of about $1.35 billion by the end of the century, most of this between 1990 and 2000, when the annual rate of new investment is expected to reach $90 million (almost 4 times the 1975-1980 annual requirement). This pattern is expected to hold for all the states in the study area but is most extreme in Montana and North Dakota. Although Table 11-34 shows expendi- ture needs only for operation-phase population, the additional amounts for construction employees and their families can be seen in the relative sizes of the populations in Table 11-30. Full cost figures were not calculated because temporary facilities for construction are often chosen at a lower cost to communities. Local governments will also have to increase their operating budgets by a total of $344 million annually by the year 2000 (Table 11-35), with school districts accounting for about 75 per- cent of the increase. As with capital costs, the operating costs in the 1990's will mushroom the most in energy areas of Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming. State government expenditures will also increase as populations rise (Table 11-36). Again, the greatest increases will be in the Northern Great Plains states, which account for 78 percent of the estimated expenditures for the region by the year 2000. By the year 2000, annual local operating expenditures are expected to be $344.2 million; new state annual expenditures will be $571.3 mil- lion; and the total capital expenses for the 25-year period are $1,353.2 million. B. Revenues If state governments tax individuals at current rates and also incur current per capita costs, new energy developments can always be expected to provide a net surplus. This is because new revenue from conventional sources (mainly income and excise taxes) 1 To facilitate comparisons among the states, consistent per capita figures were used in the calculations, even though expen- diture levels actually vary from state to state and community to community. 1001 ------- TABLE 11-34: LOCAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE NEEDS FOR LOW DEMAND CASE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT, 1975-2000 (in millions of 1975 dollars) STATE Colorado New Mexico Utah Montana North Dakota Wyoming •Six State Total PERIOD 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-2000 1975-2000 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-2000 1975-2000 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-2000 1975-2000 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-2000 1975-2000 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-2000 1975-2000 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-2000 1975-2000 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-2000 1975-2000 WATER AND SEWER 6.3 10.0 16.5 86.4 119.2 21.3 17.2 0 24.3 62.8 3.9 1.2 0 4.0 9.1 18.3 48.8 19.0 176.9 263.0 12.3 21.1 19.5 147.5 200.4 17.1 30.4 16.7 116.3 180.5 79.2 128.7 71.7 555.4 835.0 SCHOOLS 1.8 2.8 4.7 24.6 33.9 6.1 4.9 0 6.9 17.9 1.1 0.4 0 1.2 2.7 5.2 13.9 5.4 50.2 74.7 3.5 6.0 5.6 41.9 57.0 4.9 8.7 4.8 33.1 51.5 22.6 36.7 20.5 157.9 237.7 OTHER 2.1 3.4 5.6 29.0 40.1 7.1 5.8 0 8.2 21.1 1.3 0.4 0 1.4 3.1 6.1 16.4 6.4 59.4 88.3 4.1 7.1 6.6 49.5 67.3 5.7 10.2 5.6 39.1 60.6 26.4 43.3 24.2 186.6 280.5 TOTAL 10.2 16.2 26.8 140.0 193.2 34.5 27.9 0 39.4 101.8 6.3 2.0 0 6.6 14.9 29.6 79.1 30.8 286.5 426.0 19.9 34.2 31.7 238.9 324.7 27.7 49.3 27.1 118.5 292.6 128.2 208. 7 116.4 899.9 1353.2 Source: Based on energy operation population increases in Table 11-34 and data in THK Associates, Inc. Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry: Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo.: THK Associates, 1974, p. 30, inflated to 1975 dollars. Water and sewage plant expenditures are $1.76 million per 1,000 addi- tional population. School capital costs are $2500 per pupil, where school enrollment is assumed to be 20 percent of the new population. Other costs amount to $591,000 per 1,000 population. School capital costs are taken from Froomkin, Joseph, J.R. Endriss, and R.W. Stump. Population, Enrollment and Costs of Elementary and Secondary Education 1975-76 and 1980-81, Report to the President's Ccmmission on School Finance. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1971. 1002 ------- TABLE 11-35: ANNUAL ADDITIONAL OPERATING EXPENDITURES OF LOCAL GOVERNMENTS IN SIX WESTERN STATES, 1980-2000, FOR LOW DEMAND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT (in millions of 1975 dollars) STATE Colorado New Mexico Utah Montana North Dakota Wyoming Six State Total YEAR 1980 1985 1990 2000 1980 1985 1990 2000 1980 1985 1990 2000 1980 1985 1990 2000 1980 1985 1990 2000 1980 1985 1990 2000 1980 1985 1990 2000 COUNTY AND MUNICIPAL 0.5 1.2 2.7 11.7 3.0 3.0 2.5 4.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.8 5.7 6.1 24.8 1.6 3.0 4.8 21.0 1.7 3.8 4.9 16.1 9.2 17.0 21.3 79.4 SCHOOL 1.6 4.0 9.0 39.0 9.9 10.0 8.4 15.6 2.0 1.2 1.2 3.7 6.1 19.0 20.4 82.8 5.3 10.2 16.0 70.1 5.8 12.8 16.2 53.6 30.7 57.2 71.2 264.8 TOTAL 2.1 5.2 11.7 50.7 12.9 13.0 10.9 20.3 2.6 1.5 1.5 4.8 7.9 24.7 26.5 107.6 6.9 13.2 20.8 91.1 7.5 16.6 21.1 69.7 39.9 74.2 92.5 344.2 Source: Based on energy construction and operation population increases in Table 11-29 and data in THK Associates, Inc. Im- pact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil ShaTe Industry: Regional Development and Land Use Study. Denver, Colo, THK Associates, 1974, p. 30. The per capita figure used is $120 (1975 dollars). School operating costs used are $2,000 per pupil (which is an average figure that varies considerably among school districts). School enrollment is assumed to be 20 percent of the new population. 1003 ------- 0 o o IN 0 OS in CO i o CO rH Z o 88 CONSTRU RELA1 0 EH Z 0 "1 ONSTRl RELA U rJ H 0 EH Z o Eg 2< «§ 0 U o EH Z o g< Ha s« o tj J o H STATE in o> in in IN m rH I-- 0 rr m co CO fO « P- O r-> o in o in OS CO (N ' — 1 rH in o o on in cri in CO rH IN! (N rH C TO rH in ^r o o o ch m r- •r m IN O TO \C co rH in P- IT) rH rH rH rH cr\ in in M oo m -H IT, 0 ^ <7 in 3 ro m tH in IN co in ^r o 01 in rH r-t P- T IN IN IN rr rH •q- in "cr ,N^^ rH rH rH (0 4-1 o 18 rd Q Oi C C IB .C -H 4J 4-) g C M O O 0 X s z s m r-i <-f m r— 1 r^ LT) o 00 .— i \c ro in rH m - m ro (N rH rH 0 rH 00 State otal X EH •H CO M (D a m rH {D (8 00 O 00 CD rH 0> ,c 01 EH 0) rH JD 1C EH & (X! r- CT> rH n CD M O D -H T: 3 o c t/i I1 C tT1 CM CD C X O -H Cl 4J 0) C fl)JS -H Cn-P r4 O O 4J C (330) (8 g 13 QJ C C H rM itj 3 QJ CQ > <.T\ O CN ^ O rH O 'H M ** 0) • ,o o o (0 U EH • m c coo H J-) en TO -P C C d) CD -H » e -c re -u en 4) M it) r-l OS S o a C - Q) o • -u •H en to •p • V re a en rH 3 C t> OrH ------- approximately balance new costs, while additional revenues will be available from special energy taxes. The principal taxes currently levied on energy production and conversion are summarized in Table 11-37, along with current (1975) property tax rates. Applying these rates to the projected numbers of facilities in each state in the Low Demand cas,e gives an estimate of energy-derived revenues (not counting conventional sources such as personal income taxes) for the years 1980, 1990, and 2000 (Table 11-38). In the long run, most state and local governments can be ex- pected to derive more funds from new revenues than they expend on new costs. The problem is one of timing and distribution, as emphasized throughout the reports of this project.1 If states do not distribute revenues to local governments, or if impacted lo- calities do not receive property tax benefits, then the overall surplus of funds becomes meaningless at the local level. Finally, Montana stands out from the other states in having a particularly large surplus. In fact, of the $2.95 billion likely to be collected in the six-state region, fully $1.32 billion is expected to be generated within Montana. Most of this will come from the 30 percent coal mine severance tax, which is much higher than rates in any other state. 11.4.5 Social and Cultural Effects Agriculture and agricultural interests presently dominate much of the eight-state area. The setting in the resource-rich parts of the region is primarily rural, with any urban population being limited to small towns. Local lifestyles and cultures asso- ciated with this western setting are likely to be changed by cir- cumstances related to energy development, particularly where old- timers (i.e., native westerners) perceive themselves as being outnumbered by newcomers who hold different values and have dif- ferent interests.2 Over time, the values and attitudes of the newcomers to the area could become dominant. The impact of pro- jected large population shifts is especially acute when distinctive 1 White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Policy Analy- sis Report. Washington, B.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming, Chapters 8 and 9; White, Irvin L. , et al. Energy From the West: A Progress Report of a Technology Assess- ment of Western Energy Resource Development. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977, Chapter 3. 2Corless, C.F., and B. Jones. "The Sociological Analysis of Boom Towns." Western Sociological Review, Vol. 8 (1977), pp. 76- 90. 1005 ------- TABLE 11-37: STATE MINERAL SEVERANCE TAXES, PROPERTY TAXES, AND ENERGY CONVERSION TAXES (percentages) Colorado Montana New Mexico North Dakota Utah Wyoming COAL3 7.2b 30.0 4.6b 11. 3b 0.0. h 10.5 GAS AND OIL 5.0° 2.65 4.9 >£ 5.0 ° 2.0 4.0 URANIUM ? ^c - 5 0 d 1.0 5.5 SHALE OIL 4.0 EFFECTIVE PROPERTY TAX RATE 1.37 1.19 1.21 1.48 1.82 1.52 ENERGY CONVERSION TAX 0 0 f $.0004 $.00025; $.10g Source: Bronder, Leonard D. Severance Tax Comparisons Among WGREPO States, Staff Analysis No. 77-28. Denver, Colo.: Western Governors' Regional Energy Policy Office, June 1977. •a Surface-mined. Law written in cents per unit. Values of resources assumed here of: $8.33/ton for coal in Four Corners States; $5.73/ton for coal in Northern Great Plains; $1.45/thousand cubic feet for gas; $9.15/barrel for oil; $40/lb. for uranium (yellowcake). £ Before property tax credits. No taxable production in 1977. p 3.4 percent effective rate for gas. 0.4 mills per kilowatt hour (kWh) of electricity generated. 0.25 mills per kWh of electricity; $.10 per thousand cubic feet of synthetic gas. Reverts to 8.5 percent after the 2 percent special levy has accumu- lated to $160 million (probably around 1993). 1006 ------- CO X EH O O >H O EH CN Pi I W o ft oo ^ O CTi CO Pi rH S-l ft (0 Q CO H 2 W O H r-UO O co co OH Pi W W W X 2 > < W 2 EH O U >H Pi CO W(V1 P-J ft X O •< Pi EH ft W CJ 2 co «d* IY1 "w M-J K X W r3j J> EH W CO « rtj W tH W EH f£ EH CO rooocn incNrH cooom in cn ro ^* ^ ^3* cn r^ cn >& ^o CD ^0 ^o oo rH r~ CM vo oo cn CMCMOO mr^rH CM CN CM CM rH in 00 rH cNcncn m in in i— I ro o mcNCM rorooorHcnin rH rH CM P^ 00 H o vo co o cNrHooin M> co r~ "a cn rH oooo oo vo CN OOCNVDVD^J1 OOOO rH CM CM CN rH 00 Cn ooo ooo ooo ooo cocno cocno oocno cocno cncno cncno cncno cncno rHr-HCM rHrHCM rHrHCN i-)rHCN 0 0 O -H T3 X (0 (00) C MS fO 0 X! -P i-H \|5 (0 CJ O 0) -P O U 2 D g rH ro ** o e» oi ^ ro oo rH ^}* CM TT VD t • • cn vo <* oo <* rH in CM rH rH O rH 00 CO CN cn cn in «* CM m co in TJ< oo r~ rH ooo oo cn o cn cn o rH rH CM rH 4J O EH CU -P (0 -P CO X •H CO • CO J-) C CU 1 S-l cu ^ 0 Cn rH rO O O rH O -p o cn CO cu X rO •P K1 -P V^ 0) a o a jj CO o g cfl CO cu X m -P c • O CO •H CU CO -H CU (0 K T3 C C O 2 0 O X) &1 >-l t 1 ,_J cu cu C X! CU -P ?i C C -H rO X! 4J g-H 0 S rJ m 13 CU CO C CU -H 3 g C Q) CO > H CU ro CU CU C J> .,-^ •H g CU O >i (1) C r-l (0 O r-1 CO O H m (0 rH C! i-H CO •H ^ rrj CU W CO C 0 o a •H g -P -H (0 C CU C rO co x: •H rfj ^\| d cu H X! J3 -P 1007 ------- ethnic ana/ or religious groups are involved, such as Indians, Mexican- Americans , and Mormons. Many of these impacts can be discussed within the context of social and cultural effects, or what is generally termed the "quality of life" under the more general rubric of the "human environment. " Many of the attributes commonly included under quality of life reflect the adequacy of public and private ser- vices. In the area of public services, the ability of local gov- ernments to manage population growth and its effects is a critical element. Federal, regional, and state eiction will be necessary in most parts of the West to reduce or prevent adverse effects on people's lives. Private services, including housing, medical care, and retail goods and services, also tend to be in short sup- ply during rapid population growth. Some towns in the West will experience inadequacies in these areas as energy development pro- ceeds. 1 Medical care is an area of particular concern in the rural West, which, like most rural areas in the U.S., is chronically short of physicians. The permanent population increases expected in the West (those associated with energy facility operation) will require a total of 678 doctors by 2000 (Table 11-39) . Construction- related population could add 268 doctors to this need, or a total of 946. It has tended to be difficult to attract doctors to small towns .and rural areas such as those which will be affected by energy resource development in the West. In most energy areas, active policies will be needed to attract doctors away from metro- politan centers to small western towns.,2 Since a substantial number of energy development-related im- pacts on individuals' lives are viewed as being negative, such developments can ultimately lead to a Lowering of the overall quality of life.3 For instance, in many areas of the West, about half the current housing consists of mobile homes, and this trend will probably continue. Indications are that dissatisfaction with mobile home living will increase in conjunction with feelings of social segregation experienced by some construction workers and their families. The tension and stress precipitated by value and an elaboration of these issues, see Chapter 8 "Housing," and Chapter 9 "Growth Management," in White, Irvin L. , et al . Energy From the West: Policy Analysis Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming. 20n this point, see Ibid. , Chapter 9; and Coleman, Sinclair. Physician Distribution and Rural Access to Medical Services, R-1887-HEW. Santa Monica, Calif. : Rand Corporation, 1976. 3Gilmore, John S. "Boom Towns May Hinder Energy Resource Development." Science, Vol. 191 (February 13, 1976), pp. 535-40. 1008 ------- TABLE 11-39: INCREASED NUMBER OF DOCTORS NEEDED IN WESTERN STATES BY YEAR 2000, LOW DEMAND CASE3 STATE Colorado New Mexico Utah Montana North Dakota Wyoming Total NUMBER OF DOCTORS NEEDED 97 51 1 213 163 147 678 Source : Based on operation- related population increases (Table 11-29) and an average ratio of one doctor per 700 people, which is approximately the U.S. average. lifestyle conflicts between long-time residents and newcomers must also be taken into account.1 The quality of life depends on the reactions of people to their problems as well as on the problems themselves. Thus, more than any other factor in western energy development, quality of life is largely unaffected by mitigating measures from outside sources. Local activity, planning, and cooperation are among the most influential factors that can improve the quality of life in energy-impact areas. 11.4.6 Political Impacts Although the relative population increases projected for the region are not large (approximately 7 percent by 2000 in the Low Demand case), population growth in some states is substantial and will probably result in political changes. The populations of Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming particularly will increase from 20 to 27 percent (Table 11-29). If the partisan preferences of newcomers to the region differ substantially from those of the 1 These conflicts are elaborated in University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research. A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and Northeastern Wyoming. Missoula, Mont.: Institute for Social Science Research, 1974. 1009 ------- natives, the partisan character of the entire region may shift.1 Similarly, if the influx of newcomers changes the demographic com- position of the region, the level of political participation may change as well. The impact of construction workers on the region will differ substantially from that of operation and maintenance personnel. Construction workers will have the most immediate effect on the region. They will strain the medical, housing, recreation, and service facilities of the individual communities in the site area, which may call o-n the state and federal government for assistance. However, since the majority of construction workers are temporary residents and many currently live in the region,2 they will proba- bly not have any lasting political impact. Operation and maintenance personnel will follow the construc- tion workers and will have a more definite political impact be- cause they will reside in the region on a long-term basis. Selec- ted characteristics of the operation and maintenance workers can be summarized from the reports on individual energy production/ conversion sites as follows: they are highly skilled in the tech- nical and managerial fields needed to operate the energy production facilities; their income is above the median level for all indivi- duals; and they are mostly between 30 and 60 years of age. These characteristics are important in assessing the political impact of energy development because they are generally associated with a high level of involvement in politics.3 Thus, operation workers are more likely to become involved in community affairs than other groups. They will seek offices in the local government and in school, church, and civic groups. If successful, these individuals are likely to use their leadership roles to guide the community's development according to their own values and priorities. Hugh A., and Austin Ranney. Politics and Voters. New York, N.Y.: McGraw-Hill, 1976; Campbell, Angus, et al. The American Voter. New York, N.Y.: Wiley, 1960, pp. 37-38. His- torically, interregional migration has shifted the partisan loyal- ties of the western United States from heavily Democratic to bi- partisan. 2Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976. 3Lipset, Seymour Martin. P o1itic a1 Man. Garden City, N.Y.: Doubleday, 1960, p. 184; see also Pomper,Gerald. Voters' Choice. New York, N.Y.: Dodd Mead, 1975, Chapter 3; Flanigan, William H. Political Behavior of the American Electorate, 2nd ed. Boston, Mass.: Allyn and Bacon, 1972. 1010 ------- 11.4.7 Energy-Related Economic Growth Impacts The SEAS1 model was used to analyze some of the macroeconomic impacts of expanded energy development. The SEAS model includes a Nominal Clean, Nominal Dirty, and Low Growth scenario. Energy production projected in the SEAS Nominal scenarios and in the Low Growth scenario is similar to that projected by the SRI model and used throughout most of this chapter. The principal difference is in oil shale projections which are 4.2 million bbl/day by 2000 in the SEAS Nominal cases but only 2.5 million bbl/day in the SRI Nominal case. The difference between the SEAS Nominal Clean and Nominal Dirty scenarios is in compliance dates for pollution con- trol. These differences are given as needed in this section in order to interpret the information generated by the SEAS model. Using these scenarios, the industries which are expected to be affected the most by western energy development were identified, and their projected growth rates were compared to those projected for nonenergy related industries. In addition, the macroeconomic impacts of two levels of environmental control were analyzed by comparing growth rates projected by the Nominal Clean and Nominal Dirty scenarios. A. Growth in Industries Related to Energy Development SEAS disaggregates the national economy into 176 industrial sectors. Industries related to western energy development were identified using an empirical criterion: those industries in which the output for the Nominal Growth case was at least 1 per- cent greater than the Low Growth case as of 1995 were assumed to be western energy related; that is, they sell a significant por- tion of their output to firms involved in western energy develop- ment. Based on this empirical criterion, of the 176 industrial sectors considered, 76, or 43 percent were identified as western energy related. Using the Nominal Clean scenario, the nation's 25 fastest growing industries (including both energy and nonenergy related industries) were analyzed in order to identify whether or not their growth was due to or accelerated by western energy develop- ment. Table 11-40 lists the 25 fastest growing industries for three time frames. In the 1975 to 1980 period, 8 of the 25 are western energy related and 17 are unrelated to western energy; in the 1980 to 1990 and 1990 to 2000 time frames, 9 are western energy related and 16 are not. ^.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Technology Assessment Modeling Project (TAMP). A Description of the SEAS Model, Pro- ject Officer Dr. Richard Ball. Washington,D.C.:Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. (Unpublished report.) 1011 ------- o • i o ! ° i o ON ON EH 3- ' C o OS ON C £JN H 1 Z 0 g CO OS rH 0. 0 CO o JN rH 0 §JH t-3 W* ^ E"1 p; i« K o o o 1 o r-H C-4 S o 0- O~i O r-, e- o Z CO U rH a£ CM O CO -* in [•^ rH Q M H = 5 ^ tS EJ Oi E-* K W SS t-0 o LTl ^ o r— CO en u •r-i 4J cn rH P- r-crvo CN r^ r-rorn^r ^TfM^ -I -H tO iH >i C utn E jJLiOCiJU 0 ^>C -H CO ,Q •HQJ^3--[niX3 4-J i-( d) p i — 1 H fOO-PEiJ^ilH f^ U) CUE tTcn dj tu 4J-H -H -p QJ o 4^ QJ C/i3 WtT' CJ>C1)/2U IH rj IH C K O Oi-ilnlM-nQJ O-H rH4J EJ-H 5 -H U 0) 3 U fr Di ^ > ITJOI -H J_i Ef O tn LOtC CD-Pin ^£ "a>^cc^2 'Eo^S-H'acnSSS jJ CT fdOrJCJri3U3 fOC1""' tOfOOi-vE J— H rH C iHCJS^QjrH^rHCJOOC •-OiH'r'E"1 Oj rH 3cQ-r-t D"1 -Ht— irOr—— tri- -HcC tJU4JtflOMWit(DOC)Ci-iC4tUC!3C G. P 3U •H-HjJ O"JJOQJ CUU i-(O "3 Q> Q.'tC QJrH £I-i- O O1'^ lHT3r^30OQjEtnCHCCCXirH3ErHO4.h^WrU <£WD&,fcUH£ 2t,0,H = OUd.a;0 S r-r-r^ tsir^^rrlcovo Tr-CO {NrHCVJ^CNrH r~ I rsvo^r oo^^rr- O r~^ 3 POrHrHC^ >— i Chf— r^ i — r^r~~-ixi rH r- -H CN rs VD cr^ yD •rr rj rH m rH o cn co VD VD in LO tn ^r 01 in CTi 4-* tn to IH C c rH rji P 01 0 •H Qjct!ca> tr C.P in C O -(-» N C -H rc 3 O-^^;.^ >, -Hr-XlM W CjEVl—* ^ CT'ECVJCIJ (C £Ci)O-r^ 4-* JnC3C otn C-CS-P tn no—iE-'QJ !E-P Uwln 3 P-t^^i O C rHCD 'b^ OtT1 ^'^T^ rHCD Cfi EJ rH (fl (t, C i-t XCU) C,)CCT3 (C E ^ '— 1 "H ET3 4J i— i QJ UlOi-rH-J QJQJ^C -H 2 QJ ^ c I! s lo c'iJ o)5§coj-S£ Saw"3 i-(J-)4J2Vl4-i U'HfCtJ^C-HCSV-l -r^CJtn 4JU)3 -PlOiH-HC^rKU'-JrH-H Q,1 J-J^ICM O C Q-D-iU 3 El) E'^ t,1 J> (C EQ-l-^-'~'l"rC '- tT'H 0 ,_! O3i IC-P^ -H CD f— 1 -H fO O 0 QJ 4-^ CO W Ud-WMOU m U3 rH rH rH o •* r-, ro 0 in v£i in if~i in in o in m o r- ^r n- CN r- r~- r^ r-- 4J -P C •H Q) in E -P m c d C T3 EC tO -H CU O i- -P 3 £ O H O CP at 3 w rH -H T^J 3 C (0 0 -^ CT QJ u IH rC n W N o Cu U t/l QJ 0 ij H ex c n M in IH U O fc t? QJ 4-1 O EC -H C X 0 P-i O -P ^ ttJ -P QJ CO t/i u (0 01 QJ K tfl JH QJ -H in J CDCDtnCCTJOJ QJ Cr-irH-HSCDClHC •H -H CD ------- Growth rates between energy related and nonenergy related sectors are not significantly different. In none of the three time frames are the energy-related sectors overrepresented among the fastest growing sectors. Random distribution would have put an average of 10 energy-related sectors in the fastest growing group in each time frame. It thus seems that other influences (such as demographic change) will have stronger effects on the economy than does western energy development. However, some other trends indicated by the data on Table 11-40 do suggest that energy development eventually becomes a significant growth stimulus. For example, four of the five fastest growing industries by 2000 are energy related (electrical measuring instruments, coal mining, nonferrous forging, and lead). Moreover, batteries, the one nonenergy related industry that is part of the five fastest growing industries, is indirectly energy-related. That is, electrification is expected to be the major mode of utilizing coal resources, at least until such time as synthetic fuel industries mature. Growth of the battery and lead industries reflects, in particular, a projected penetration of 7.5 percent of the national auto fleet by electric cars by 2000. B. Impacts of Environmental Controls Given any particular level of energy development, alternative levels of pollution abatement expenditures can affect the growth rates of various industries. The SEAS model was used to compare economic growth rates projected for two versions of the Nominal growth scenario: one with strict environmental controls ("Nominal Clean") and one with lax controls ("Nominal Dirty"). The environ- mental compliance dates assumed in the SEAS scenarios are given in Figure 11-14. Some economic trends at the national level are given first, followed by trends in the eight-state study area.1 (1) Impacts at the National Level In most respects the economy shows a greater pace of activity in the Nominal Clean scenario than in the Nominal Dirty scenario. Among macroeconomic variables, this is most evident in capital equipment investment which is 3.6 percent greater in 1990 in the Clean scenario than in the Dirty scenario. However, after 1990 the situation reverses and total investment becomes less in the Clean scenario than in the Dirty scenario. Industries which were induced to build new plants before 1990 in order to meet (or beat) tight regulations then reduce their rate of investment. 1 The SEAS model cannot precisely be disaggregated to the eight-state region but because the nature of existing industries in that region is known, the impacts on those industries can be estimated. 1013 ------- AIR POLLUTION CONTROLS' DIRTY SCENARIO 19" CLEAN SCENARIO SIP SIP ?5 19? NSPS 0 19? NSPS 5 19S BACm 0 199 5 2000 WATER POLLUTION CONTROLS DIRTY SCENARIO 19 CLEAN 75 19i BPT 30 19 BPT 35 19C BAT )0 19< 35 2000 FIGURE 11-14: ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE DATES ASSUMED IN STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT SYSTEMS SCENARIOS NSPS = New Source Performance Standards SIP = state implementation plans BACT = best available control technology BPT = best practicable technology BAT = best available technology aRefers to plants in operation as of 1975; newly built plants must meet BAT standards under both scenarios. D Refers to plants beginning construction as of given date. 1014 ------- In addition, a significant difference between expenditures in the Nominal Clean and Nominal Dirty scenarios occurs in the late 1970's due to expenditures for water treatment. Investments in the 1970's are quite sensitive to compliance dates for Best Practicable Treatment (BPT) of water and to the preparation of industry and municipalities for Best Available Technology (BAT). BAT is assumed in the Nominal Clean scenario but not in the Nom- inal Dirty scenario (Figure 11-14). The 1980's bulge in water treatment expenditures is shown in Figure 11-15. Expenditures for water systems are $7.1 billion (1971 dollars) in the Nominal Clean scenario and $4.7 billion in the Nominal Dirty scenario in 1980, while by 1990, expenditures under both scenarios are $4.0 billion. In the case of sewer systems, expenditures in 1975 were estimated at $5 billion (Nominal Dirty) and 7.4 billion (Nominal Clean), increase to about $7.7 billion in 1980, and subsequently decrease to $4.3 billion by 1985 under both scenarios. For 1980, the industrial sectors which show the largest dif- ference in output between the' Nominal Clean and Nominal Dirty scenarios are listed in Table 11-41. These include equipment manufacturing industries and industries which supply them with materials and services. While total output for all industrial sectors is only 0.65 percent greater in the Clean scenario than in the Dirty scenario, output for the auto manufacturing and re- pair industries is 6.82 percent and 4.94 percent greater (respec- tively) in the Clean than in the Dirty scenario (Table 11-41). This indicates that auto emission standards1 will probably have greater economic impacts than will controls on stationary air pollution sources. Other strongly affected sectors shown in Table 11-41 include chemicals, reflecting their use for industrial pollu- tion control, and steel, reflecting its use in equipment manufac^ turing. As of 1990, the list of most strongly affected sectors (i.e., most strongly affected by the Clean as opposed to the Dirty Sce- nario) remains substantially the same. It shows some shift towards sectors related to electrical power, including special industrial machinery, lighting and wiring equipment, and aluminum. (2) Impacts at the Regional Level The western regional economy is largely oriented toward ex- tractive rather than manufacturing industries.2 In some cases, Expenditures on such devices as catalytic converters are considered part of the auto industry's output. The difference between the scenarios reflects primarily the 1977 CAA Amendments. 2Federal Region VIII produces 8.7 percent of the nation's farm output, but only 1.4 percent of the value added by manufac- tures, while its population is 2.9 percent of the nation's. 1015 ------- H 0 o C! O •H •H CQ sewer, clean scenario water systems water, clean scenario 19 75 1980 1985 1990 FIGURE 11-15: ANNUAL CONSTRUCTION EXPENDITURES ON WATER AND SEWER SYSTEMS 1016 ------- TABLE 11-41: SECTORS WITH LARGEST DIFFERENCES IN OUTPUT BETWEEN CLEAN AND DIRTY SCENARIOS, AS OF 1980 LARGEST PROPORTIONAL DIFFERENCES (percent) Motor vehicles Auto repair Metal stamping Miscellaneous chemicals Engine electrical equipment Industrial chemicals Pipes, valves, fittings All sectors 6.82 4.94 4.61 3.55 3.42 3.05 2.88 0.65 LARGEST ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCES (millions of 1971 dollars) Motor vehicles Auto repair Industrial chemicals Steel Petroleum refining Wholesale trade Business services All sectors 5,705 1,210 1,029 932 744 589 526 17,144 All percent differences are positive. Miscellaneous chemicals subsectors which show the largest differ- ences in the physical quantities produced include sodium chloride, ethylene, and propylene. c Industrial chemicals subsectors which show the largest differences in physical quantities produced include sulfuric acid, chlorine, and sodium carbonate. such as the extraction of molybdenum, virtually the entire national supply of the resource may come from one or two western states. Thus, national economic trends cause substantial variation in eco- nomic activity in localized areas. This is the case for several materials used in pollution abatement which, in accord with the SEAS assumptions of nationally stricter controls in the Clean scenario, will experience increased national demand. Table 11-42 shows the 20 state/industry combinations (out of a total of 1,408 combinations considered) which experience the largest differences in demand between the Nominal Clean and Nomi- nal Dirty scenarios. Several types of regional impacts can be observed: (1) demand for certain key materials is increased (e.g., copper, wood, aluminum, steel); (2) demand for certain manufactured items increases (e.g., computers, machinery); (3) the control of mobile sources of air pollution strongly affects the automobile industry and, due to decreased gasoline mileage, the oil industry; and (4) increased expenditure on pollution control "crowds out" other types of spending, hence decreases retail trade in some states. Overall, economic impacts on the western region of pollution control expenditures reflect national demands for certain materials 1017 ------- TABLE 11-42: INDUSTRIES SHOWING THE LARGEST STATE- LEVEL DIFFERENCES IN OUTPUT, NOMINAL CLEAN VERSUS NOMINAL DIRTY SCENARIOS, 1990 (millions of 1971 dollars) Arizona Copper (refining and fabricating) Copper (mining) Motor vehicles (repair) Computers Aluminum Colorado Motor vehicles (repair) Oil and gas Retail trade Special machinery Motor vehicles (mfg.) Wood products Steel Montana Wood products Copper (refining and fabricating) Petroleum refining New Mexico Oil and gas Metal ores (except iron or copper) Utah Motor vehicles (repair) Wyoming Petroleum refining Oil and gas DIFFERENCE IN OUTPUT3 +31.30 +21.84 +15.19 + 9.98 + 8.74 +17.73 +14.83 - 7.23 + 6.13 + 5.76 + 5.14 + 5.13 +13.83 + 9.36 + 6.55 +10.10 + 5.63 + 8.36 + 8.99 + 7.40 Differences expressed as output in Nominal Clean minus the output in Nomi- nal Dirty scenario. 1018 ------- (such as copper, oil, and wood) which already play a major role in the region's economy. 11.4.8 Personnel Resources Availability The question of personnel availability is addressed primarily on the regional and national levels because it is unlikely that local communities in the West will be able to fill the skilled positions required by the energy technologies.l The unskilled positions could largely be met locally but these would hardly lead to bottlenecks in any case. From the manpower supply point of view, the critical question is whether rapid energy development could be delayed by a nationwide shortage of key skilled personnel. A. Levels of Development As with the analysis of material and equipment resources, the overall pace of development is considered first. Manpower needs are based on the SRI Low Demand case projection and on the tech- nical and skilled manpower resources for standard-size facilities as detailed in the Bechtel Energy Supply Planning Model.2 Taking a 3,000-MWe mine-mouth power plant as an example, operation and maintenance will require a work force of: 24 engineers (16 elec- trical, 8 mechanical), 4 draftsmen, 56 supervisors, 240 skilled tradesmen (80 equipment operators, 80 welders, 48 electricians, and 32 pipefitters), and 112 relatively unskilled workers. B. Operations The total number of workers required for operating the number of plants in the Low Demand case, detailed by skill category, is about 144,000 as listed in Table 11-43. In terms of supply, the most readily available source of labor would be those workers filling similar positions in similar industries. If this source is orders of magnitude greater than western energy requirements, then western development should have relatively little impact in the labor market. On the other hand, if needs are large in com- parison to supply, then other industries must be raided, workers upgraded, wages boosted, and/or standards lowered. 1 In one survey, 73.9 percent of the professional, technical, and supervisory workers were found to be of nonlocal origin. See Mountain West Research. Construction Worker Profile, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Old West Regional Commission, 1976, p. 19. 2Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Develop- ment Study; Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford Research Institute, 1976; Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corpora- tion, 1975. 1019 ------- TABLE 11-43: DEMAND FOR SKILLED AND PROFESSIONAL PERSONNEL, WESTERN REGION, POST-1975 FACILITIES, LOW DEMAND CASE (operational and maintenance) OCCUPATION Engineers Chemical Civil Electrical Mechanical Mining Geological Other Total Draftsmen Supervisors Other Technical Total Managerial and Technical Pipefitters Electricians Boilermakers Carpenters Welders Operatives Underground Miners Other Skills and 'Crafts Total Skills and Crafts All Technical, Managerial, and Skilled 1980 120 70 70 10 50 320 100 1,350 700 2,150 210 990 0 0 560 2,900 2,100 3,500 10,260 12,730 1985 20 0 220 140 170 20 130 700 230 2,700 1,550 4,480 420 2,000 50 1,100 6,900 3,950 3,950 8,500 22,940 28,120 1990 160 20 310 260 300 60 220 1,430 390 4,550 2,800 7,740 820 3,350 100 20 1,670 13,100 7,600 16,400 43,060 52,230 2000 1,200 250 650 700 700 150 600 4,250 1,000 9,800 7,000 17,800 3,100 7,500 800 1,100 3,900 40,000 7,900 48,500 122,800 144,850 Source: Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model. San Francisco, Calif.:Bechtel Cor- poration,1975; and Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Development Study: Economies'^Final Report,2 vol».Menlo Park, Calif.:Stanford Research Institute, 1976. 1020 ------- This analysis is focused on the next decade because almost any degree of demand could be met by specific training, within 10 years. Although special provisions might be required for schools or apprenticeship programs, supply would not be absolutely con- strained by the current skill distribution beyond about 1985. The 1970 data on occupations by industry were consulted to determine the characteristics of the labor force in the mining and utility industries. The 1985 personnel requirements, expressed as a percentage of this readily available pool, are indicated in Table 11-44. As shown in the table, labor requirements for devel- oping western energy resources could range up to about 10 percent in some of the occupational categories, but for most occupations the demand would be less than 5 percent of available supply. The 9.5 percent indicated for operatives may actually be less because some 100,000 workers were deducted from this category and classi- fied as "underground miners." Western energy development may tighten the markets for tech- nicians, mining engineers, and welders, with 1985 demand exceeding 6 percent of the readily available labor pool in each case. The technician category consists mainly of surveyors, instrumentation people, and chemical laboratory people. Western development also may noticeably raise salaries, per- haps by as much as 20 percent. It may also provide the opportunity for further unionization in the West. Some skilled technicians (such as welders) can be easily transferred from other industries, while those such as mining engineers must take college courses and gain specific job experience over several years. Some increase in mining engineering education can already be detected.2 As noted previously, the major long-term limitation is not the current shape of the labor force but the training programs which are or are not instituted. In particular, the 1985-2000 period will bring very rapid increases in the demand for chemical and civil engineers, boilermakers, and carpenters. Clearly, new engineers must, at some point, go through a college curriculum, with some receiving advanced degrees. Conversely, skilled manual 1 One recent environmental impact statement which detailed the qualifications of the labor force indicated no more than 10 years experience is required for any of the positions. See U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Draft Environmental Impact Statement: Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols. Salt Lake City, Utah: Bureau of Land Management, 1976. 2The Bureau of Mines reports that college enrollments in that field have risen 22 percent in a single year. Poe, Edgar. "In Washington." Coal Mining and Processing, Vol. 13 (April 1976), pp. 39-42. 1021 ------- TABLE 11-44: 1985 WESTERN ENERGY DEMAND FOR OPERATIONAL LABOR AS A PERCENTAGE OF 1970 NATIONAL MARKET, LOW DEMAND CASE OCCUPATION Engineers Chemical Civil Electrical Geological5 Mechanical Mining Other Total Engineers Draftsmen Supervisors Other Technical Total Managerial and Technical Pipefitters Electricians6 Boilermakers Carpenters Weldersf Underground Miners8 Operatives11 Other Skills and Crafts Total Skills and Crafts 1985 WESTERN DEMAND3 20 0 220 20 140 170 130 700 230 2,700 1,550 4,480 420 2,000 20 50 1,100 3,950 6,900 8,500 22,940 1970 , SUPPLY 5,800 1,300 19,600 2,100 4,400 2,500 4,100 38,800 3,200 43,100 18,400 74,700 10,500 100,200 1,400 8,000 16,400 112,100 12, 300 226,700 547,600 PERCENTAGE 0.3 0 1.2 1.0 3.2 6.8 3.2 1.8 2.8 5. 6 8. 4 6.0 4.0 2.0 1.4 0.6 6.7 3.5 9.5 3.7 4.2 Taken from Table 11-43. Source: U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Occupation by Industry, Subject Report PC(2)-7C. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973, Table 8. Workers were counted from the census industry cate- gories of mining, excluding oil and gas production; privately-owned electric utilities; and petroleum re- fining. cCensus category: geologists. Census category: plumbers and pipefitters. eCensus category: electricians and linemen. Census category: welders and flamecutters. 8Census categories: blasters and powdermen, bolting operatives, earth drillers, mine operatives N.E.C., motormen. Nontransport operatives, excluding distinctly mining categories. 1022 ------- trades are learned primarily by "hands-on" experience. Therefore, the supply of engineers can be promoted through student scholar- ships and grants to colleges, and some skills can be learned in simulated mines and other such specially designed facilities.1 In short, foreseeable labor requirements can be met, but some will require expanded training programs, union cooperation, and other actions. C. Construction The same basic methodology was used in the analysis of con- struction requirements. The census categories of "general con- tractors except buildings" and "special trades contractors, sala- ried employees" were used because they correspond roughly to what is generally known as "heavy construction." On the demand side, the Bechtel data base indicates the number of construction workers needed in each year leading up to the completion of each energy facility. For simplicity, the average number of workers in each year of major construction activity was multiplied by the number of plants in that phase at any given time. Estimates of the total numbers employed in selected years are given in Table 11-45. A maximum of 94,800 construction personnel will be needed in the late 1990's. When 1985 demands are compared with the size of the construc- tion labor force (Table 11-46), potential shortages of mining engineers, boilermakers, and chemical engineers are greater than the projected problems with operation and maintenance personnel. If the demands and supplies for these occupations are combined for a slightly wider group of industries (construction, mining, petro- leum refining and electric utilities), the results are as shown in Table 11-47. It appears that the supply of chemical engineers would not be a problem but that availability of boilermakers could consti- tute a significant bottleneck. Additional workers could be re- cruited from manufacturing industries, but ultimately apprentice- ship programs must be expanded. Even if the 1985 demand is met from the current labor pool, a more than threefold increase beyond the 1985 demand is anticipated by 2000 (4,500 in construction ver- sus 1,300 at the earlier date). Beyond 1985, labor requirements would be greatly increased by gasification and shale oil plants. Particularly sharp growth in demand (sevenfold or more) would be felt for chemical and mech- anical engineers, pipefitters, welders, and carpenters. As noted previously in the case of operations personnel, a long lead time !For example, Tillman, David A. "Peabody Training Center Simulates Real Underground Conditions." Coal Mining and Processing, Vol. 12 (December 1975), pp. 62-67. 1023 ------- TABLE 11-45: DEMAND FOR CONSTRUCTION WORKERS, SKILLED AND PROFESSIONAL, WESTERN REGION, LOW DEMAND CASE OCCUPATION Engineers Chemical Civil Electrical Mechanical Mining Geological Other Total Engineers Technicians Draftsmen Supervisors Other Technical Total Managerial and Technical Skilled Trades Pipefitters Electricians Boilermakers Ironworkers Carpenters -Operating Engineers Welders Other Skills and Crafts Total Skills and Crafts All Technical, Managerial, and Skilled 1980 20 600 360 330 80 30 60 1,480 720 340 1,500 2,560 2,100 1,420 1,300 900 850 1,430 1,300 920 10,220 14,260 1985 220 800 480 570 160 70 160 2,460 1,410 580 2,440 4,430 4,640 2,050 1,300 1,170 1,440 2, 350 2,, 030 1,180 16,160 23,050 1990 400 820 540 720 140 60 230 2,910 1,870 670 2,900 5,440 6,650 2,400 1,240 1,230 1,750 2,470 2,600 1,140 19,480 27,830 2000 1,600 2,600 1,700 2,500 400 200 800 9,800 4,500 2,300 9 ,900 16,700 25,400 8,400 3,800 3,800 6,400 8,000 9,300 3,200 68,300 94,800 Source: Carasso, M., et al. The Energy Supply Planning Model. San Francisco, Calif.: Bechtel Corporation, 1975; and Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Development Study: Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford Research Institute, 1976. 1024 ------- TABLE 11-46: 1985 WESTERN ENERGY DEMAND FOR CONSTRUCTION LABOR AS PERCENTAGE OF 1970 NATIONAL MARKET, LOW DEMAND CASE OCCUPATION Engineers Chemical Civil Electrical Mechanical Mining Geological Other Total Engineers Technicians Draftsmen Supervisors Other Technical Total Technicians Skilled Trades Pipefitters Electricians Boilermakers Ironworkers3 Carpenters Operating Engineers Welders Other Skills and Crafts Total Skills and Crafts 1985 WESTERN DEMAND 220 800 480 570 160 70 160 2,460 1,410 580 2,440 4,430 4,640 2,050 1,300 1,170 1,440 2,350 2,030 1,180 16,160 1970 SUPPLY 900 54,800 4,800 4,300 100 500 6,900 72,300 16,000 158,500 23,000 197,500 174,100 182,700 2,600 44,800 133,000 22,800 38,100 822,100 1,420,200 PERCENTAGE 24.4 1.5 10.0 13.3 160.0 14.0 2. 3 3.4 8.8 0.4 10.6 2.2 2.7 1.1 50.0 2.6 1.1 10. 3 5.3 0.1 1.1 Source: Table 11-45 and U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Occupation by Industry, Subject Report PC(2)-7C. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973, Table 8. aCensus categories of cranemen and hoistmen and structural metal craftsmen. Census categories of earth drillers, miscellaneous machine operatives, and fork lift operatives. 1025 ------- TABLE 11-47: 1985 WESTERN ENERGY DEMAND FOR SELECTED OCCUPATIONS IN CONSTRUCTION, MINING, PETROLEUM REFINING, AND ELECTRIC UTILITIES: LOW DEMAND CASE OCCUPATION Mining engineers Boilermakers Chemical engineers 1985 DEMAND 300 1,320 240 LABOR POOL 3,100 6,600 8,200 PERCENTAGE 10.6 20. 0 2. 9 Source: Tables 11-44 and 11-46 and U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,. Occupation by Industry, Subject Report PC(2)-7C,. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973, Table 8. would allow these requirements to be met but would necessitate ex- pansion of formal schooling and/or apprenticeship programs. Western energy is still an emerging industry; thus, the future course of industrial relations has not yet been established. As the industry grows, it will obviously provide a major opportunity for union organization. What is considerably less clear is how far labor organization will go and what forms it might take. For example, the historical patterns of Appalachian mining probably will not be repeated. Almost all western mining is done by sur- face methods, which call for a smaller, more educated work force. There is more capital per worker than in underground mines, and the work is safer. All these features have a bearing on the pace and form of unionization. Moreover, the energy conversion facil- ities have small, highly specialized work forces. In short, west- ern energy does not seem easily organiz:able into the type of in- dustrial unions seen in the East. It is perhaps indicative that in the most recent coal strike, most western mines continued pro- duction. l Nevertheless, a number of labor organizations are trying to establish themselves.2 The results cannot be predicted with any reliability. ^roelstrup, Glenn. "16,000 Tons of Coal a Day Shipped by Rail to Midwest Utilities." Denver Post, Feb. 26, 1978. 2Recent western organizing efforts of the United Mine Workers are described in "The UMW Is Learning How to Lose the West."" Business Week, April 18, 1977, pp. 128, 130. 1026 ------- 11.4.9 Capital Availability A. Capital Requirements Large investments would be required to develop western energy resources at either of the two levels being considered. Nation- wide, investments would be even larger and questions have been raised about the ability and willingness of financial institutions to undertake such extensive commitments. In this subsection, an attempt is made to answer several of these questions, specifically: (1) How large are the demands for capital implied by western energy development? What is the time distribution of these demands? (2) Is this demand for capital large compared to national markets, in the sense of raising inter- est rates or diverting substantial funds from other sectors? (3) Are the individual projects large compared to the credit limits of firms in the industry? Will western energy development alter current patterns of industrial organization? (4) How sensitive are these forecasts to changes in market conditions? The capital resources required for the construction of several energy facilities are listed in Table 11-48. Conversion facilities account for over $1 billion each, and are responsible for the largest drain on the capital markets. Coal mining is a signifi- cant contributor, since the 100 surface mines projected in the Low Demand case account for nearly $13 billion in total investment by 2000. The four energy technologies which contribute most to capital demands during the time frame of this study are surface coal mining, mine-mouth power generation, coal gasification, and oil shale processing. Financial data for these industries are summa- rized by periods in Table 11-49. The patterns of development are quite diverse. Whereas oil shale and gasification are young and growing industries, mining is characterized by a steady (almost linear) growth of output; and mine-mouth power plants will have achieved a "mature" industry status by the late 1980's with only slight growth afterwards. Oil shale and gasification, once begun in the West, will require steadily growing inputs of capital, while mining requires a fairly constant $250-500 million in new money per year. Also, with a number of new plants coming on-stream in the opening years of the study period, mine-mouth power will actually become a net supplier of funds by 1985. These diverse trends add up to a very stable $1 billion rate of investment for the first 8 years,1 not counting transportation. 1 Table 11-49 shows a total of 13.26 billion dollars over the 10 year period of 1976 through 1985; roughly 8 billion dollars of this is required in the first 8 years and 5 billion dollars in the last two years. 1027 ------- CO w H EH H J H U o s o H EH U EH CO § U O Q ~ W in « rH H (0 H O K T) CO UO U cn tf rH ID O HH CO O rl O EH rH H rH PM -H < e O —' CXI " I ffl < EH o £-1 ua § w EH H o m f^C l_^ CO i EH ' H i-q H U KlJ fa C^ U3 O CM r- oo rH O O £> ro CM IT) rH IX) ro CM rH "3 in oo k£> OO a a >i -P -P a III CM ^r o rH . 0 OO O rH rH o u 1 i~n ftf T3 o c U 3 O rd (D SH g U CP 3 03 SH -H 4H CD C tn SH T3 o) CD 3 C M G CO D 13 •H a ^ t^ 'X) un rH 0 >. -. rH rH rH CTl UO rH 00 CM UO VD «^< ^J< IW CD U 1 i O O o m O CM 00 O •H 4J Ci 03 0 U •H -H 03 rH 4H SH CD -H CD & 03 > 0 03 £ CM O O U CJ^l i — I 0 rH ^ i — I v » CM H LT) ^D 1 I>1 03 03 \\ rH rH X! 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C O • -H rH fO 4J CD 4-) fO S-i o a S-i - O • U s - CD O -P ,-, 03 XI CD cn u ^ ($ Q) f$ ^ cn o U 0 rH ti • rH •H UH CD -H >, 05 rH -~^ •4— ' fu CO £j^ (0 U O C T) " -rH go m O U 13 SH SH cn rH en >4H -H CD a U -rl $ T) C >, CD oJ SH t3 rH SH to O C 03 fa CD 4-> tO 0 >i WC en (0 M C Cn >i CO CD -H £ rH a rH -H r-l rH 4J (0 • 4-1 -ri SH CD 03 cj g o C rH CD 4-1 •HO o T3 CD r-3 > SH G SH CD OS CN a •• en en CD - o £ C U rH rH -H -iH VH CD da 3 T3 4-) -H -rH o o < s s CO ?i cd o Q 1028 ------- W J OQ J ^ o EH O O o CN 1 rH .p ^ C G O co O 0) C -H (0, >, rH 4J G O G W PL, C •P -H -H J^ m CO CD-PS-P M,G g (U rH (fl p r-, w ^j > (COCDO O (fl M C »^ rH O 3tJ fi( (^) A) H en IM ro i > -H UH oj < G G COrHCOMG COM H CO -H (fl 3 -H CO 3 O OUcflJS O -P ^J M M CU CU W cj tx z o U co •H O G fl 4) M -P Pn W 01 C 3t us c/i < (U TJ •a cu tf T) i CO -P fd JH M MOO) «o a; c o « w U MH O M -H -H 3 rH C^rH U OJ O U 1029 ------- During that period mine-mouth power would take the major portion of funds. By 1985, 36,000-MWe would be on-line. These power plants would contribute a return cash flow of almost $800 million per year, an amount equivalent to around 35 percent of the require- ments for all new construction. However, in the mid-19801s, fun- damental changes would begin to occur. First oil shale and then gasification will be absorbing funds as fast as the previous peak of mine-mouth power. Oil shale, though lagging during most of the time frame, will begin consuming funds in the late 1980's. In short, energy development would require about $1 billion per year in new funds for quite a while, but after 1988 investment dwarfs anything previously encountered, reaching a $5 billion annual rate by the end of the century and still accelerating. In terms of a regional disaggregation, the largest invest- ments would be required in Montana and North Dakota in both the Nominal and Low Demand cases and in Colorado in the Nominal case (Table 11-50).l In Montana and North Dakota, investments would be needed primarily for coal development; in Colorado, they would be needed for oil shale development. Gasification would represent a sizable share of investment in the Northern Great Plains states after 1990. New transportation facilities compose an important link in the western energy system and could boost total investment costs of the four resource technologies by $41 billion. This estimate is based on assumptions stated in Table 11-51 where the substantial costs of transporting coal, compared to the synthetic energy forms, can also be seen. In fact, the low-cost transport of synthetic fuels is one of the prime incentives for adopting them. (Trans- portation costs and capacities are described further in Section 11.6.) The other energy systems in the aggregated scenario have negligible capital requirements. For example, although each under- ground mine requires more capital than a surface' mine of similar size, surface mines will far outnumber underground mines in the West. As another example, uranium mining and milling have very low capital requirements per Btu. Nevertheless, the Low Demand case: estimates a western uranium output of 17.11 Q's (1015Btu's) per year by the end of the century, which would require substantial investment in both enrichment and reactor facilities. In fact, if all the uranium output went to light water reactor plants, an investment of some $143 billion :This table differs from the previous tabulation in that only completed facilities are counted and interest costs are included. These alterations bring the results closer to figures that would be used in tax assessment. 1030 ------- TABLE 11-50: VALUES OF FACILITIES PLACED IN OPERATION, BY STATE, 1975-1990 AND 1990-2000 (billions of 1975 dollars)3 STATE Colorado New Mexico Utah Montana North Dakota Wyoming Total (six states) 1975-1990 NOMINAL 8.22 1.54 2.55 10.45 10.31 3.90 36.97 LOW DEMAND 2.54 1.38 1.28 5.93 7.87 4.80 23.80 1990-2000 NOMINAL 19.54 2.86 2.22 23.05 26.28 12.15 86.10 LOW DEMAND 4.06 1.38 0 14.27 16.49 9.36 45.54 Source: Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Re- gional Energy Development Study; Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif. : Stanford Research Institute, 1976. a Four energy systems are considered: gasifica- tion, oil shale, mine-mouth electricity, and coal mining. Figures include interest cost during construction. would be required by the year 2000. Enrichment and other fuel processing facilities could require an additional $11.5 billion. These costs are noted in passing but are not among the prime con- cerns of this study because the facilities would be located out- side the region. Another category of costs not analyzed in detail is pollution control. Little hard information is available in this area. Nevertheless, electrical power plants will probably have to invest at least $100 per kilowatt (kW) (and perhaps twice that) for con- trol of sulfur emissions.1 Control devices will also entail in- creased operating costs, and reduced overall electric generating plant efficiency. Other pollutants will also require control devices, such as electrostatic precipitators (ESP) for fly ash. (The costs of sulfur control are considered here simply to aOttmers, D.M., et al. Evaluation of Regenerable Flue Gas Desulfurization Processes, 2 vols. Austin, Tex.: Radian Corpora- tion, 1976, Vol. 1, p. 20. 1031 ------- o o o CNJ I in r- CTl in I iH H W ID M Ifl rH f_, -H g OT) ^ O g O MH C/3 ^ > 03 i-H rH •H 13 rH a „ CAPITAL COST .ons of dollars Quadrillion -miles per year rH 3 3 % e o m o —, 0 rH fM 10 « g N W rH ^ I^ ^ QJ ""I ^ 'L! ^ f£ w Sli D 1 0 3 CS 4-1 s m EH w u -^ o en § w Q Q s TRANSPORT rH CO O fl CO o r ^3* ^ co O CN ^* OJ O fN -— ) -O J2 ttf XJ rt r- r^- co cri o ro ro ^" o"> in T r^ IN ^ c-j f\j rH ^-i m fs) MS ^ r^* \& rH in I-H ro o^ CN cn tn co ^ . . . ^ co r^ ro ro 0) rH T3 10 3 O >, rH U 4-> U -rH C E 0 >, O -H W rH rH UH 4J 0) rH i-H U rH id 10 W Q/ ifl O O Ifl rH JS u o u ca en c o in ID 'e 10 c Ifl M pipeline rain peline current t peline >, 4-1 -rl 4-> -rH in a o a, M 4J 01 3 -rl ID IH rH rH C 10 -H -H W 3 O D O o 0 ,_5 o o ^r ^ m ] i -H C 3 rH id E 0) s: £, ID • H 4-> •rH IH CO II 3 4J CO «. y ^H ro d< O r-H C 0) 2 • ID rH O ;> CM ». 4-1 SH O a 01 p^ rH fU c -.H tu h. to o •H e o c o O w ,, £>, TD D 4J U) J_) c g O, O rH 0) ^ ^ Cn VH 0) C W rH 10 C o •rH en a OS c oi 4-J W 0) f£ . VT; [-^ cn rH v QJ 4-1 3 4J •rH ID c H J-3 u • rH i-H 10 4-1 tt) 10 01 ID 1' • T.1 O V-) IH Cl ro u-i ? c 'C nj W 4-J W v 4-1 01 •• rH . IB UH N -H Id iH U 0 ffl U 0! 0) C" 4J •rH iH rH 0 o a fl< O •H K ID >i in !-) 0) 'M rH 3 CP 'H O W >H fe tH It) < 0 ;j .• - 4J 10 ID C 01 •rH S 10 IH a) EH .C 4-1 4J •H E C O O VH fT \| •• >i 01 en C rH o a) ra c •H W C O H 4-1 O I) 4J O IH ul4 r-H rt 4J c 01 E c O rH •rH ^. C w h. • C/5 £3 ,, . u , o c rH 'O m •<-> a • en E rH o •H C C >H -rl 0) •H > E o M a, 0) M O a, I-H w - Q) 4J 0) •U -rH Cl 3 £ o S a) a: u = C -H -H 3 o • ca w O o) o x « ' -o >, o e en d< 11 rH i-i a 01 o d o < w 10 S : IS iTl - rH C 01 T3 O 4J C -iH 0) ffl ID 01 ID S rH E MH 0> 10 O 10 C J3 10 4-1 O rH C •H EH 01 01 01 ~ Cn 0) iH 10 4-1 in X) -H ID 0) O 32 •H > a >, £ en e en o O -rH -H M 33 O UH C Ifl £ T) >H U 0) 4-1 0) O X EH 3 63 •O Id Q) t3 Q C rH * id O J3 •P ID Ifl C 4) ,y id jj 0) rH QJ ^ ID 0) rH 'e o in £> £xi rH 0) 4J Ifl E •rH X o M a a r- r^ Ol rH >^ O c Q) t7> < 1032 ------- indicate the orders of magnitude involved.) The $100 per kW figure implies additional capital costs of $540 million during 1976-1980, $570 million in the 1980's, and $270 million in the 1990's. Since the synthetic fuels systems are still being developed, it is dif- ficult to estimate pollution control costs associated with them. B. Impact on Capital Markets and Energy Companies1 The financial demands described above can be compared with the overall size of U.S. financial markets and the energy indus- tries' historical share of those markets (Table 11-52). Equipment expenditures over the decade ending in 1975 averaged 7.9 percent of the gross national product (GNP).2 An average of 7.8 percent up to 2000 and a compound GNP growth rate of 3.5 percent per year are assumed in the following comparisons. This is a bit high, but is consistent with the energy growth rate implicit in the SRI Nominal Demand case.3 The proposed investments would not severely strain national capacity to build industrial structures and dura- ble equipment, at least from this highly aggregated perspective. Even during the projected gasification and oil shale development boom during the 1990's, western energy development will constitute no more than 4 percent of the nation's new plants and equipment. The share of investment traditionally taken by the energy industries provides another yardstick of impact. The U.S. Depart- ment of Commerce categories of electric and gas utilities, petro- leum companies (domestic operations only), and mining companies together have usually accounted for approximately 30 percent of all new plant and equipment expenditures. In the last 5 years, these industries have been investing at a rate of $36 billion per year (1975 currency). Allowing a 3.5 percent annual growth rate, western energy projects would take only 2.8 to 3.5 percent of the sector's investments through 1990, but would account for 12 per- cent during the 1991-2000 period. By the 1990's, western develop- ment will begin taking a noticeable share of energy investment, but it will be replacing other investments, such as conventional oil and gas drilling. Thus, the energy sector should maintain its 1This set of impacts and resulting issues is discussed in much greater detail in Chapter 10, "Capital Availability" in White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: Policy Analysis Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S.,Environmental Protection Agency,forth- coming. 2As reported in the "New Plant and Equipment Expenditures" series in the Survey of Current Business; published monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce. 3Together the two assumptions allow for gradual implementa- tion of energy conservation; for the average industry, Btu's per dollar output will decrease by 0.7 percent per year. 1033 ------- TABLE 11-52: INVESTMENTS FOR WESTERN ENERGY COMPARED TO NATIONAL NEW PLANT INVESTMENTS (in billions of 1975 dollars) TIME PERIOD 1976 - 1980 1981 - 1985 1986 - 1990 1991 - 2000 1976 - 2000 INVESTMENT IN WESTERN ENERGY (FOUR SYSTEMS)3 6.72 6.54 9.88 47.69 70.83 NEW PLANT, ALL INDUSTRIES 648 770 914 1,289 4,707 PERCENTAGE 1.04 0.85 1.08 3.70 1.50 aOil shale, coal gasification, surface mining, and mine-mouth power generation. historic share of investment activity, even as it shifts to new technological systems. Although western energy development is not large when compared either to the economy as a whole or to the energy industries, the projects envisioned in the scenarios could challenge the capacity of even the largest individual firms. The overall capital require- ment would not be intolerably large, but the expenditures must be made in major segments. Some trends that appear likely for com- panies involved in western energy development include: increased diversification by oil companies into other energy resources; con- tinued growth by mining firms; increasing use of consortium arrange- ments for financing large projects; and project financing for in- dividual energy facility investments.1 According to the SRI model, if oil prices continue to rise, synthetic fuels systems would become attractive investments with- out governmental subsidies by 1990. This scenario assumes that world oil prices will advance from the 1975 price of $11 per barrel to $16 per barrel by the end of the century (1975 prices). In such a case, interfuel competition, with each technology receiving its minimum acceptable price, would drive imported oil out of the market. Shale syncrude, Lurgi gas, arid other synthetic fuels could be produced for a total cost less than $16 per barrel equiv- alent according to SRI assumptions. }Vickers, Edward L. "Comments on Project Financing," in U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Southwest Energy-Minerals Conference Proceedings. Santa Fe, N. Mex.: Bureau of Land Management, 1977, Vol. II, pp7 209-39. 1034 ------- However, if the international oil cartel cannot (or will not) maintain prices, their oil will supply an increasingly large share of the U.S. energy market. SRI has run a sensitivity analysis in which world oil prices first fall, then rebound to $10 by the end of the century. Under such circumstances, oil shale development and other synthetic fuel projects would be almost forestalled. Such uncertainties, combined with the large capital cost of syn- fuels facilities, result in financial risks which may keep poten- tial investors from participating in western energy development. 11.4.10 Summary of Regional Social, Economic, and Political Impacts As a result of energy developments likely for the western U.S. between the present and 2000, the study area population can be expected to increase by 662,000-1,248,000 people. This popula- tion increase would generate most of the impacts discussed in this section. Relative increases projected are modest for Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah, but they may be as great as 20-27 percent in Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming. Increases as great as 400 percent through the year 2000 will occur in some local areas in the West. As a result of the new employment in the energy industry, re- gional income can be expected to increase by nearly 16 percent (in constant dollars) by 2000. The relative importance of economic sectors will change as well, with significant shifts from agricul- ture to energy in the Northern Great Plains states. Despite higher overall income, inflation can be expected to occur in some localities because of increased demands and inadequate supply of goods and services. This will adversely affect the elderly, those on fixed incomes, and small businessmen. Local cultures and lifestyles will be affected, particularly those of ranchers, farmers, and Indians. Political affiliations may also change as a result of the influx of new residents. How- ever, quality-of-life impacts will depend mostly on local condi- tions, and especially on how local governments and communities are able to respond to stresses induced by the new population. Their success will largely depend on their ability to plan and manage growth. Capital expenditures for local government services in the region will approach $90 million per year between 1990 and 2000. Overall, a total of $1.35 billion will be needed for these pur- poses in the West from 1975 to 2000. In the aggregate, tax reve- nues should be adequate to cover these expenditures. However, jurisdictional barriers can lead to problems when revenues accrue in a jurisdiction other than the one most severely impacted. State distribution of revenues to local areas is a critical deter- minant of revenue adequacy or shortage at the local level. 1035 ------- Equipment, capital, and personnel availability constraints can also be expected to occur. Capital requirements for energy facilities will not, on the aggregate, be a large fraction of total capital required nationally for plants and equipment. How- ever, the size of individual facilities will be so large that single companies are unlikely to have adequate capital or take the risks of borrowing for them. As a result, more joint ventures and outside financing will be required. On the whole, energy development would require about $71 billion in new funds from 1975 to 2000, but after 1988 investment would grow to a $5 billion annual rate by the end of the century. Personnel resources will, for the nost part, be adequate, but there will be substantial demands for chemical and mining en- gineers as well as a particularly high demand for boilermakers. These demands can probably be met only by establishing or enlarging training programs for these occupations. 11.5 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 11.5.1 Introduction A diversity of plant and animal communities occur in the eight-state study area. Consequently the effects on ecosystems from energy development will vary widely over the region depending on the particular stresses within an area and the biological com- munities present. The ecological impacts sections in Chapters 4-9 identify and describe the kinds of impacts that can be anti- cipated given various local conditions,, In assessing the ecologi- cal consequences of energy development over the region, it is clear that many of the effects will be qualitatively similar to those identified in the local scenarios; they will simply occur in more locations. In addition, regional development can pose cumulative stresses that will have ecological significance. Three of these cumulative stresses are discussed here: the impacts of consumptive water use on aquatic habitats; the loss and degradation of terrestrial communities through large-scale changes in land-use patterns; and the emissions of large quantities of SOa into the atmosphere. These stresses may act independently and synergisti- cally to produce changes in plant and animal populations in the study area. Each section identifies the types; of impacts energy develop- ment may have on the area's biological communities and gives ex- amples of ecological changes that result from altering factors 1036 ------- which determine the abundance and distribution of plant and animal populations.1 Throughout the eight-state area, the man-made and natural factors that act as stresses to ecosystems and their com- ponent populations vary in different areas. Consequently, these ecosystems differ in both their ability to sustain new stresses without deterioration and their resiliency or ability to recover from the changes induced by new stresses. These locational dif- ferences are highlighted in the following discussion. 11.5.2 Impacts from Water Consumption Of all the habitats found in the study area, aquatic habitat is by far the most limited in extent. Further reduction in this habitat will have more widespread effects to both aquatic and terrestrial species than changes to large areas of terrestrial habitat. Development of the water resources needed for the re- gional scenario will result in three principal changes to aquatic habitats: decreased stream flow, changes in water quality, and construction of water supply reservoirs. A. Flow Reduction As indicated in Chapters 4-9, stream-flow depletion arises from different removal and consumption of water, aquifer depletion, and runoff control. Anticipated water demands from regional development for the Low and Nominal case are included in Section 11.3. The total energy-related demand by 2000 will be well below the average flow of many rivers in the region, but will represent a large proportion of typical low flows and, in some cases, will equal or exceed the low flow record. The physical impact of flow reduction will be most noticeable in the summer and late winter months when flow is normally at its lowest. Depending on the ul- timate distribution and use of water rights, water withdrawals could reduce flow in some rivers to zero or nearly zero. Zero flow does not necessarily mean that there is no water in a stream bed but merely that it is not moving and therefore does not con- stitute a flow. 1 For example, factors that often limit the size and well- being of animal populations are the amount and condition of the ecosystem types that are available. Because many species require different kinds of habitat, the loss of only a small part of a population's total range may have a disproportionately large effect. Riparian (stream-side) habitat may be especially impor- tant for food gathering or water supply to some species. Other species may require lower elevation habitat for winter forage. These habitats may be a small portion of either the total range or habitat available, but they are critical to maintaining a population. 1037 ------- The water required by energy development would not all be withdrawn from existing low flows but, in part, would come from water released from storage in upstream reservoirs. In most parts of the eight-state region, large main-stem reservoirs on the Colorado and Missouri Rivers afford a source of stored water both for industrial use and maintenance of base flow. In other loca- tions, new reservoirs would be needed to sustain flow during per- iods of low snowmelt and limited rainfall. The greatest impacts on aquatic ecosystems could occur in the San Juan Basin and western Colorado. Increased irrigation such as the Navajo Indian Irrigation Project (NIIP), will consume addi- tional water and add significant amounts of nutrient-, pesticide-, and silt-laden runoff to the San Juan; flow depletion could seri- ously reduce the dilution capacity of the river. Together, these factors may alter the extent and quality of the aquatic habitat in the San Juan River and in the San Juan arm of Lake Powell. In western Colorado, heavy water demands could deplete flows in the White, Green, and Colorado Rivers. Even if as little as a quarter of the total water requirement for the area is apportioned to the White, demand would exceed typical minimum daily flows. The Colorado, measured near Rifle, commonly experiences minimum daily flows which will fall short of the total demand projected for the year 2000. Problems arising from excessive demand could be mitigated by using water from the Green River, although this river also experiences relatively small minimum flows. Severe flow depletion could reduce aquatic habitat and the ability to sustain threatened or endangered species.1 The Yellowstone River and its tributaries could experience withdrawals from 25 to 100 percent of typical low flows, depending on the use of reservoirs to regulate discharge. The portion of the Yellowstone from Billings, Montana to the Missouri confluence is free-flowing, and there is considerable public pressure to keep it so. However, the river is 20-100 miles away from many of the coal deposits; thus a long-distance delivery system typically in- volving reservoirs would be required. Irrigation demands on the Yellowstone are already high and could increase, further reducing dilution capacity and increasing nutrient and pesticide concentra- tions brought in by agricultural runoff. Expanded crop production, :A number of techniques for determining in-stream flow needs for biological resources have been reviewed. One simplified gen- eralization suggests that flows be maintained at 25-30 percent of the average daily flow as much as 55 percent of the time. However, such measures tend to be quite unreliable when applied to speci- fic situations. Bovee, K.D. The Determination, Assessment, and Design of "In-Stream Value" Studies for the Northern Great Plains Region. Denver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1975. 1038 ------- even on nonirrigated acreage, will add to the pollutant load entering the river through runoff. The two main-stem rivers in the study area will reflect the cumulative influence of upstream and tributary withdrawals. As discussed in Section 11.3, the water required from the Upper Colo- rado for energy development by the year 2000 amounts to 16-55 per- cent of the unused water in the river. The degree to which flow in the Lower Colorado may be reduced by this demand depends on the extent of actual use of presently allocated water and on use of reservoir discharge to maintain base flows. Depending on the magnitude of flow reductions, marshlands in the lower valley could very likely be affected both in extent and species composition. Loss of these habitats could prove critical to the officially "threatened" Yuma clapper rail, as well as the black rail and a large number of waterfowl and shorebirds that find other suitable wetlands habitat scarce in the area. In addition to affecting the aquatic community directly, re- duced river flow will exert an influence on terrestrial vegetation (if floodplain water tables are lowered due to insufficient re- charge from the stream). Riparian and floodplain habitats are perhaps the most important individual habitat types in the Great Plains and Southwestern deserts. They are used seasonally by many upland species as wintering habitat or as hunting range, and they support a distinctive and diverse animal community. They are among the most limited in extent of the major habitat types throughout the eight-state region and are rapidly being fragmented by urban and agricultural expansion. Riparian marshes important to waterfowl would be narrowed in some areas and perhaps lost, although in others, shoaling and reduced current velocity could induce a cycle of sedimentation and growth of emergent plants. B. Water Quality Changes Water consumption in the upper parts of the main river basins of the study area will reduce both volume and dilution potential downstream. In addition, the effect of evaporation on this re- duced volume will further increase salinity, particularly in the LCRB. Without salinity control, salinity levels may increase to 1,100-1,400 mg/S-.1 With successful operation of the Colorado JU.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Regions VIII and IX. The Mineral Quality Problem in the Colorado River Basin, Summary Report and Appendices. Denver, Colo.: Environmental Protection Agency, 1971; Colorado River Board of California. Need for Con- trolling Salinity of the Colorado River. Sacramento, Calif.: State of California, 1970; and U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Office of Saline Water. Colorado River International Salinity Control Project, Special Report. N.p.: Bureau of Reclamation, 1973. 1039 ------- salinity control projects, salinities at or above Imperial Dam should range between 730 and 1,000 mg/Jl.1 A number of researchers have found that freshwater fish can generally live in water with TDS as high as 7,000 mg/il, and some salt-tolerant freshwater species are found in natural waters with concentrations as high as 20,000 mg/Ji. On the basis of a broad literature survey, some state agencies apply a 2,000 mg/£ limit as a water quality crite- rion for maintenance of freshwater fish and aquatic life. The salinities expected to develop in the LCRB appear too low to cause redistribution or mortality in fishes. However, there is very little information available for evaluating the possibility of subacute effects of salinity changes on fish or other aspects of the aquatic ecosystem. In-flowing pollutants from energy fa- cilities, energy conversion waste disposal sites, and municipal sewage treatment effluent will add stresses, but their magnitude and effects are not possible to predict given the current state of knowledge. C. Reservoir Construction Additional impoundments will be required in the study area to insure a reliable source of water for energy development. For example, in the Yellowstone River Basin new impoundments would be needed to insure supply during late summer, fall, and winter.3 The reservoirs needed for energy developments offer a very different kind of habitat than that of the original river. Im- poundments may reduce turbidity, trap sediment, and stabilize chemical variations. A large reservoir stratifies seasonally into a warm, productive upper layer and a colder lower layer in which the dissolved oxygen content may be lowered. Nongame fish may be able to compete with game fish more successfully, or game fish may simply lose much of their suitable spawning areas (as happened recently in North Dakota's Lake Sakakawea). J.T. "Salinity Control Planning in the Colorado River System," in Flack, J.E., and C.W. Howe, eds. Salinity in Water Resources: Proceedings of the 15th Annual Western Resource Conference, University of Colorado, July 1973. Boulder, Colo.: Merriam Publishing, 1974. 2McKee, Jack Edward, and Harold W. Wolf. Water Quality Criteria, 2nd ed. Sacramento, Calif.: Resources Agency of Cali- fornia,State Water Quality Control Board, 1963. 3Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, Water Resources Division. Which Way? The Future of Yellowstone Water, Draft. Helena, Mont.: Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, 1976, pp. 25-34. 1040 ------- Some reservoirs can develop highly productive, diverse eco- systems if they combine good water quality with a variety of habi- tats, especially shoreline spawning and nursery areas. If reser- voirs experience large water-level fluctuations to maintain flow to energy facilities, then shoreline habitat cannot be maintained. Generally, reservoir in-flows are contaminated by pollutants and sediment. The reservoir sites most vulnerable to this pollution would be on major rivers in the Great Plains.1 Mountain reservoirs would generally be less likely to become enriched (eutrophic) . To date, most of the large impoundments in the study area have been on main-stem rivers. However, concern about protecting the remaining free-flowing river habitats, as well as the cost of building large dams, may induce a trend toward off-stream impound- ments. By trapping sediment and releasing steady flows of cool water, they could improve both the baseline quality of the re- maining aquatic habitat and the stream's ability to assimilate municipal wastes. In general, reservoirs increase the supply of some species, such as sport fish, both within the impoundment and frequently below it. Although the quality of sport fisheries may improve, the overall diversity of species could be reduced in areas where warm-water fishes predominate. Aquatic habitat will also be frag- mented by reservoir construction, which will introduce effective barriers to movement of biota upstream and downstream. Finally, reservoir construction and operation will eliminate valuable flood- plain vegetation or lower its productivity.2 In sum, reservoirs built to supply water to energy developments (and other users) will have a mixture of effects that will increase the abundance of some species and stress or eliminate populations of others. 11.5.3 Terrestrial Habitat Degradation by Changing Land Use As stated in the site-specific impact analyses in Chapters 4-9, the greatest stress to terrestrial ecosystems usually stems from the loss or degradation of habitat. Direct consumption of land for energy facilities can have an adverse influence if the amount of land required is large (as in the western North Dakota lignite fields) or if it overlaps areas of critical importance to animals, such as migratory routes or breeding areas. When both industrial and urban land disturbance is scattered through a of the lakes and large impoundments in North Dakota have become highly eutrophic from nutrients and sediment brought in by agricultural runoff. 2Johnson, W.C., R.L. Burgess, and W.R. Kaemmerer. "Forest Overstory Vegetation and Environment on the Missouri River Flood plain in North Dakota. " Ecological Monographs, Vol. 46 (Winter 1976), pp. 59-84. 1041 ------- vegetational type, the resulting fragmentation compounds the effects. A relatively small amount of the total plant community is eliminated but leaves no large areas without some degree of disturbance, and thus reduces the value of the remaining habitat. Finally, people exert a disturbing influence that typically thins out animals wary of human settlements.1 We have concluded that the three major causes of habitat deterioration are: direct land use by energy conversion facilities and for urban expansion; dis- persed recreation in wilderness and backcountry areas; and changes in land use due to mining and reclamation. Each is discussed below. A. Land Use by Energy Conversion Facilities and for Urban Expansion Table 11-53 presents land-use projections for the Low Demand case; it includes land use by the energy conversion facilities (not for coal mines) and for urban areas. For 53 sample counties in the U.S., new urban land use ranged from 0.097 to 0.481 acres per capita from 1961 to 1970, with an average of 0.173 acre.2 The estimates in Table 11-53 were made using the average. The same data, by region, for both the Low and Nominal demand cases is given in Table 11-54. As Table 11-54 indicates, the energy facilities will use more land than the population expansion they produce. In all cases, total land use is less than 1 percent of the land in each group of counties. In 1980 and 1990, total land use by energy facilities and the urban population is highest in New Mexico, but by 2000 it is highest in Montana. As a percentage of the land in counties in which energy development is projected to occur, North Dakota, Montana, and Colorado show the highest land-use rates (0.42, 0.55, and 0.43 percent). In the Nominal Demand case, total land use in 2000 is 2.7 times than in Low De- mand case for the Rocky Mountains and 1.4 times the Low Demand case for the Northern Great Plains (Table 11-54). The most critical factor related to the effect of land use is the spatial pattern in which development occurs. In the case of urban land, scattered trailer parks, subdivisions, and indivi- dual dwellings built on small parcels of land (e.g., less than 5 1 For example, as indicated in chapters 4-9, outdoor recrea- tional activities, particularly use of snowmobiles and other off- road vehicles, brings this disturbance into backcounty areas that have not been previously disturbed. Disturbances in winter can be important to some animals due to cidditional metabolic demands during periods of high physiological stress. 2Zeimetz, Kathryn A., et al. Dynamics of Land Use in Fast Growth Areas, Agricultural Economic Report No. 325. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, 1976. 1042 ------- TABLE 11-53: NEW LAND REQUIREMENTS FOR ENERGY FACILITIES AND URBAN LAND FOR LOW DEMAND CASE, 1980-2000 (in acres and percent of land in affected counties) YEAR ENERGY FACILITIES URBAN LAND TOTAL COLORADO Garfield, Mesa, Rio Blanco, and Huerfano Counties (7,125,760 acres) 1980 1990 2000 2,400 (0.03%) 4,855 (0.07%) 18,680 (0.27%) 623 (0.01%) 5,173 (0.07%) 11,729 (0.16%) 3,023 (0.04%) 10,028 (0.14%) 30,409 (0.43%) UTAH Kane, Garfield, Uintah, and Grand Counties (11,027,840 acres) 1980 1990 2000 2,400 (0.02%) 2,400 (0.02%) 2,960 (0.02%) 381 (0.003%) 502 (0.004%) 900 (0.01%) 2,781 (0.02%) 2,902 (0.03%) 3,860 (0.03%) NEW MEXICO San Juan, McKinley, Valencia, Lea, Eddy, Roosevelt, and Chavez Counties (21,573,120 acres) 1980 1990 2000 37,220 (0.17%) 37,570 (0.17%) 29,535 (0.14%) 2,059 (0.01%) 3,460 (0.02%) 6,176 (0.03%) 39,279 (0.18%) 41,030 (0.19%) 35,711 (0.17%) MONTANA Big Horn, Powder River, and Rosebud Counties (8,542,770 acres) 1980 1990 2000 2,400 (0.03%) 7,200 (0.08%) 21,305 (0.25%) 1,799 (0.02%) 8,460 (0.10%) 25,846 (0.30%) 4,199 (0.05%) 15,660 (0.18%) 47,151 (0.55%) WYOMING Campbell, Johnson, Sheridan, Converse, Natrona, Carbon, Freement, and Sweetwater Counties (31,114,240 acres) 1980 1990 2000 3,800 (0.01%) 10,560 (0.03%) 19,445 (0.06%) 1,678 (0.01%) 6,314 (0.02%) 17,750 (0.06%) 5,478 (0.02%) 16,874 (0.05%) 37,195 (0.12%) NORTH DAKOTA Dunn, Mercer, McLean, Oliver, Billings, Bowman, Hettinger, McKenzie, Slop, Stark, and Williams Counties (10,625,920 acres) 1980 1990 2000 4,800 (0.05%) 11,210 (0.10%) 24,865 (0.24%) 1,211 (0.01%) 5,225 (0.05%) 19,705 (0,18%) 6,011 (0.06%) 16,435 (0.15%) 44,570 (0.42%) 1043 ------- m i rH rH W CQ EH U3 H EH H . ~i 1 — i H U CM & W & W ^ EH O EH Q <~^ < m f ^ rn CU c -H c -M 13 1 f~1 0 X O ^"•^ K <£ p£J >H 2 O H O § o\° rH rH 0 ro 00 o m o\o rH O 0 ro VQ O oo o\° cn o o 0 CN o CN ^ 0 CO en rH ' — " t> w o 0> A rt SH C U •H rd ro -P 0 C CN 3 r- O - S VO CN ^r- X - U en O oo « •— o\° ro rH o o VO en ro in 0\° CN O O m ro rH en 0\° rH r-H O in CN 00 ^r ^r o en en rH o\° 00 rH 0 O 00 cn en vo o\o m o o m o 00 00 rH 0\° ro rH O in r- rH rH m o o 0 CN o\o CN r-H O rH CN en oo 0\° rH O o rH CN CN r o\o rH rH 0 o o r^ "=r ^3 O 00 en rH rH rd C •H e 0 X 0\° 0 CN 0 CN en o 0 oo o\o "31 o o ^ 'd' en rr rH C'P V£> rH O in in en in M3 O en en i— i 0\° r-- ^ o CN ^r CN r- co rH o\o m rH o ^ rH rH 0 VO o\o CN 00 O m CN rH [-, CN rH 0 0 0 CN o\° ro o o 00 00 UD in rH oV r-l O O m m w •=r c\° f^l O O O o 0 ,H ,H O 00 cn rH <•> tn o CU h4 ^ -P U (0 fO 0) rH 0 O co ,0 co C tn ^ M C CN OJ -rl CO .C (0 CN -P r-H v M a, o O m 3 — • 0\° 0\° o vo rH CN 0 O cn vo VO rH en en CO OO "* CN rH 0\° 0\° •^r ro 0 rH 0 O en rH en o en ro en ro i— I VO o\° o\° vo ro 0 rH 0 O o in r- rH en vo co m CN VO o o en o en o rH CN 0\° ^S1 O 0 o f~ ^ CTl r-H 0\° I— 1 0 O O cn 0 vo o\o ro O 0 O 00 VO ro rH o CO cn r-H rH rtf a •H g O £2 0\° 0\° ro vo rH 00 O O o r- rH cn en vo ^ CO vo oo r-H 0\° 0\° m r~~ 0 rH 0 0 m CN rH r-» oo ^r VO CO CN CO 0\° 0\° oo cn 0 rH 0 0 m m cn CN O CN 00 CN ro en o o cn o cn o rH CN 13 C (0 O U X 0) S CD •H O I rH Q) 13 fd a rd -P O g -P O -p M O c •rl O I rH CU m EH fi •H 13 CD -P to •H rH cn d) •H -P a o o 0) r; -P CO CU 13 rH o • a o -H 13 m fO rl QJ O SH rH ------- acres) usually exert a much larger overall affect on habitat than an equivalent total land use concentrated around a few urban foci. Certain habitats are likely to be more vulnerable than others to fragmentation and disturbance due to residential expansion. Especially in western Colorado and Utah, rough terrain often limits feasible residential sites to river and stream valleys, habitats which are both limited in extent and important to maintaining overall ecological diversity. The growing demand for recreational second homes in scenic mountain areas will also put pressure on foothill habitats, which are more feasible for home sites than higher elevations.1 This kind of land use may be expected to de- velop particularly in the southern foothills of the Rockies bor- dering the desert of the Colorado Plateau,2 in western Colorado's oil shale areas, and the Black Hills. The biological implications of the development in foothill winter ranges may be greater for some species than others. For example, these areas are typically the limiting factor controlling big game herds of the area.3 B. Impacts of Increased Outdoor Recreational Pressure Regional ecological stresses brought on by energy development are closely related to the size of human populations in the study area. (Anticipated growth in regional human populations is de- tailed in Section 11.4.2.) As shown in Table 11-55, the cumulative percent increase of population projected over the entire eight- state region (Nominal Demand case) will be more than 10 percent by 2000, and a disproportionate share of this growth will occur near areas with high value for backcountry recreation. As a new energy impact, the baseline against which this growth in resident demand should be measured is the projected growth in tourists (nonresidents). Estimates made for the UCRB and Missouri River Basin Comprehensive Framework Studies indicate that it is rea- sonable to expect this demand to double or triple by the year 2000. Since the early 1970's, backcountry activities such as hiking, snowmobiling, jeeping, and backpacking or packing with horses have been rising in popularity, accounting for 5 to 15 percent of the total use in individual national forests. 1 For example, these patterns of land development are described in Montana State University, Gallatin Canyon Study Team. The Gallatin Area: A Summary Report, Bulletin 344. Bozeman, Mont.: Montana State University, Cooperative Extension Service, 1974, pp. 9-13. 2 Including the deserts of southern Utah across the Navajo Reservation to central northern New Mexico. 3Montana State U., Gallatin Canyon Study Team. Gallatin Area., pp. 20-21. 1045 ------- TABLE 11-55: EXPECTED POPULATION INCREASES DUE TO NOMINAL CASE DEVELOPMENT IN SELECTED STATES AND THE EIGHT-STATE REGION YEAR 1975 1980 1990 2000 COLORADO 2,534,000 1,800 46,200 253,500 NEW MEXICO 1,147,000 16,200 27,500 54,200 WYOMING 374 ,000 16,600 45,000 150,000 TOTAL EIGHT- STATE REGION 9,551,000 95,500 280,900 1,229,600 Residents and nonresidents generally have different back- country use patterns. Residents are more often responsible for off-road vehicle use, including snowmobiles. Backpacking, hiking, and camping may be more evenly divided, while ski developments generally draw recreationists from lone distances. An important limitation in projecting recreational demands is the difficulty of anticipating trends in recreational styles. For example, such technological innovations as snowmobiling are recent phenomena. Hydrofoil and shallow-draft boats make many western rivers avail- able for recreational use. Similar uncertainty exists in land management practices. Current trends are to increase restrictions on wilderness and backcountry areas, but economics encourages the Forest Service to promote dispersed recreational activities by building trails and improving access. Although the intensity of use is uncertain, the locations of recreational activities generally fall into three categories: major established tourist attractions (e.g., Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks); areas near population centers (e.g., Grand Mesa National Forest, near Grand Junction); and recreational areas with otherwise limited recreational opportunities (e.g., Black Hills National Forest in Wyoming and South Dakota). Table 11-56 lists some major areas which are likely to experience in- creased use because of regionwide energy development. If access to these areas is limited or controlled, the bulk of the growing demand will fall on adjacent nondesignated areas which still have a strong aesthetic appeal. Energy-related population growth will probably result in potential damage to vegetation, and animal communities in four areas: western Colorado, the Powder River coal region, the Four Corners area, and the lignite fields of western North Dakota. In western Colorado, the large population influx is expected to locate in the midst of prime outdoor recreation areas; conse- quently, this area is likely to experience the greatest adverse ecological impacts'. The Powder River and North Dakota areas will 1046 ------- TABLE 11-56: MAJOR BACKCOUNTRY AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE INCREASED PRESSURE DUE TO ENERGY DEVELOPMENT STATE Colorado New Mexico South Dakota Utah Wyoming NATIONAL FORESTS, PARKS , MONUMENTS , AND RECREATION AREAS Grand Mesa (NF) Rio Grande (NF) Routt (NF! White River (NF) San Juan (NF) Black Canyon of the Gunnison (NM) Mesa Verde (NP) Theodore Roosevelt (NP) Carson (NF) Sante Fe (NF) Chaco Canyon (NM) Black Hills (NF) Ashley (NF) Dixie (NF) Fishlake (NF) Arches (NP) Dinosaur (NM) Zion (NP) Glen Canyon (RA) Cedar Breaks (NM) Capital Reef (NP) Canyonlands (NP) Bryce Canyon (NP) Hovenweep (NM) Bighorn (NF) Bridger-Teton (NF) Medicine Bow (NF) Shoshone (NF) Yellowstone (NP) Grand Teton (NP) Bighorn Canyon (RA) Flaming Gorge (RA) INCLUDED WILDERNESS AND PRIMITIVE AREAS La Garita (NA) , Upper Rio Grande (PA) Rawah (WA) , Mt. Zirkel (WA) Maroon Bells/Snowmass (WA) , Gore Range/Eagle's Nest (WA) , Flat Tops (WA) San Juan (WA) - - _- _._--__-_-_-_ _____ Wheeler Peak (WA) San Pedro Parks (WA) High Uintas (PA) Cloud Peak (PA) Teton (WA) , Bridger (WA) North Absaroka (WA) , Popo Agie (PA) , Washakie (WA) , Glacier (PA) NF = National Forest WA = Wilderness Area PA = Primitive Area NM = National Monument NP = National Park RA = Recreation Area 1047 ------- also experience substantial population increases; however, in these areas, outdoor recreationists will be limited in their choice of wilderness or backcountry areas. The three closest such areas (the Theodore Roosevelt National Memorial Park, the Black Hills National Forest, and the Bighorn National Forest) will receive concentrated use. The Custer National Forest, with few developed trails, campgrounds, or other facilities, may remain comparatively unused. The energy-related population growth in Utah and New Mexico (Four Corners) is expected to be comparatively small. Thus, although high quality wilderness and backcountry areas surround the area, these areas^should not experience significant usage increases resulting from regional energy development. Some local impacts will occur, as discussed in Chapters 4 and 5. C. Surface Mining and Reclamation The impact of surface mining depends on the extent of mining, the reclamation practices employed, the existing condi- tions of soil and climate, and the objectives of the reclamation activity. Important variables of reclamation are practices in separation of topsoil and subsoil from the overburden, adjust- ments to topography, mulching, seeding, fertilization, and irri- gation. The variety of existing conditions ranges from the rich soils of the Northern Great Plains with their low to moderate rainfall to the poor soils and arid climate of the desert south- west. The objectives of reclamation can vary from restoring natural conditions to establishing range grasses, providing of cover and forage for wildlife, and production of crops. Resto- ration of mined lands for productive use have also included pro- posals for commercial or recreational activities such as lakes, golf courses, or race tracks in locations near urban areas.1 This section primarily addresses the process of reclamation for the establishment of biological resources, which can include native species, game animals, or croplands. Following a dis- cussion of the extent of mining as projected by the regional scenario for the eight-state study area, this section identifies some of the major factors that affect reclamation, and describes the potential for success and the problems in reestablishing vegetation. Since the early 1970's, a great deal of laboratory and field research has been performed to determine whether, and by what means, mine spoils can be reclaimed in the major western coal fields. Some critics express uncertainty about the soundness of long-range predictions based on the results of these short-term 1For examples of economically successful projects, see: Ozarks Regional Commission. Mined-Land Redevelopment: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma. Wichita, Kans.: Wichita State University, 1973, pp. 6-8. 1048 ------- tests. Their reservations largely arise because of the inevitable lack of data concerning the long-term success of reclamation. The total acreage disturbed through the year 2000 by surface mining under the two demand cases postulated for the eight-state scenario is summarized by subarea in Table 11-57. These subareas reflect both the geographic distribution of major coal resource areas and natural groupings of biotic communities. The Northern Great Plains includes the coals of eastern Montana and northern Wyoming and North Dakota's lignite, all part of the Fort Union Formation; the Intermountain subarea includes coal deposits in western Colorado and western Wyoming; and, the Southwest Deserts include the coals of northern New Mexico, Arizona, and southern Utah. It is possible to generalize about the conditions that influence the success of reclamation in these three major sub- areas within the eight-state study area, as summarized below. (1) Existing Conditions Affecting Success of Reclamation The climate, soils, and overburden characteristics are the most important locational factors determining the success of reclamation. Precipitation is an important component of climate. As indicated in the following section, approximately 6-10 inches of precipitation are generally considered to be the lower limit for successful revegetation, although the frequency and timing of this precipitation may be more important than the total amount.l Surface soils within the eight-state study area vary greatly in sand content, organic content, and depth; and, a single mine often contains several soil types which differ in their suit- ability for use in reclamation. Thus, the following general observations are regional trends rather than uniformly occurring conditions. Rock strata overlaying coal deposits (overburden) also vary greatly. However, throughout the three subareas, cer- tain characteristics typify the major geological formations where coal is found. (a) Northern Great Plains Most precipitation in the Northern Great Plains falls in spring and as summer showers,2 and averages between 12 and 16 inches annually on most coal lands in the area. The timing of 1Davis, Grant. U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, SEAM Program. Personal Communication, November 3, 1976. 2Cook, C.W., R.M. Hyde, and P.L. Sims. Guidelines for Revegetation and Stabilization of Surface Mined Areas in the States, Range Science Series No. I6~. Fort Collins, Colo.: Colorado State University, Range Science Department, 1974. 1049 ------- TABLE 11-57: SURFACE ACREAGE ULTIMATELY DISTURBED BY SURFACE COAL MINING THROUGH THE YEAR 2000 Northern Great Plains3 Intermountain Southwest Deserts0 LOW DEMAND CASE 622,350 13,860 43,860 NOMINAL DEMAND CASE 861,600 27,730 62,800 Seam thickness assumed is that for site specific scenarios, Chapters 7, 8, and 9. One-third of the projected mines are underground and are not included; seam thickness assumed for surface mines is 7 feet. CA11 projected mines in New Mexico are surface with seam thickness given in Chapter 5. Half of the projected mines in Utah are underground and not included; seam thickness for Utah surface mines is assumed to be 10 feet. this rainfall is offset somewhat by the drying effects of the prevailing northwesterly winds,1 especially in the western part of this subarea. As much as 20 percent of the rain that falls during the growing season may evaporate without penetrating to plant roots.2 In addition, the climate is erratic,3 and while the overall climate favors revegetation, periods of lowered moisture will reduce the success of seedlings or alter the com- position of vegetation. Backer, Paul E. Rehabilitation Potentials and Limitations of Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great Plains, General Tech- nical Report INT-14. Ogden, Utah: U.S., Department of Agricul- ture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 1974; and Wall, M.K., and F.M. Sandoval. "Regional Site Factors and Revegetation Studies in Western North Dakota," in Wali, M.K., ed. Practices and Problems of Land Reclamation in Western North America. Grand Forks, N.D.: University of North Dakota Press, 1975. 2Curry, R.R. mation," in Wali. "Biogeochemical Limitations on Western Recla- Land Reclamation in Western North America. 3Thornthwaite, C.W. "Climate and Settlement on the Great Plains," in U.S., Department of Agriculture. Yearbook of Agri- culture. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 19-41. 1050 ------- Soils in the area generally have adequate nutrient and organic matter content to support plant growth. Topsoils may be 6-30 inches in depth, and weathered subsoil extends as deep as 20 feet in western North Dakota.1 Topsoil varies with topo- graphy, and soils on steep slopes erode so that deep soils do not develop. Soils on level terrain are much deeper. High salt content is a problem in some Northern Great Plains soils.2 These soils are poorly drained, minimally per- meable with a dry to a hard crust. Runoff from such soils is high, and they tend to erode. Soils in Wyoming and Montana tend to be deficient in phosphorus, while North Dakota soils may have insufficient nitrogen.3 Material below the soil and above the coal (overburden) in the Fort Union Formation is typically high enough in sodium to limit or prevent plant growth.4 Overburden above lignite is more likely to present sodium problems than is the overburden over- lying the subbituminous coal of the Fort Union Formation.5 These spoils are also susceptible to erosion, especially under the relatively high rainfall of North Dakota. Overburden generally contains low or marginally adequate amounts of mineral nutrients; plant cover almost always responds to nitrogen and phosphorus M.K., and F.M. Sandoval. "Regional Site Factors and Revegetation Studies in Western North Dakota," in Wali, M.K., ed. Practices and Problems of Land Reclamation in Western North America.Grand Forks,KLDak.:University of North Dakota Press, 1975. 2Sandoval, F.M., et al. "Lignite Mine Spoils in the North- ern Great Plains: Characteristics and Potential for Reclamation." Paper presented before the'Research and Applied Technology Sym- posium on Mined Land Reclamation. Pittsburgh, Pa.: Bituminous Coal Research, 1973; and Packer, Paul E. Rehabilitation Poten- tials and Limitations of Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great Plains, General Technical Report INT-14. Ogden, Utah: U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 1974. 3Packer. Rehabilitation of Surface-Mined Land. ^Sandoval. "Lignite Mine Spoils." 5Packer. Rehabilitation of Surface-Mined Land. 1051 ------- fertilizers.1 Potassium is sometimes adequate,2 but calcium may be needed.3 (b) Intermountain Subarea The varied topography and climate of the Intermountain sub- area are the major determinants of the distribution of the three major vegetation types found over coal lands: foothill shrubland, pinyon-juniper woodland, and mountain shrub communities. The foothill shrublands generally receive from 9 to more than 15 inches of rainfall annually. Most precipitation falls as snow, with erratic showers of rain in spring and early summer. July and August tend to be dry, and native plants are often dormant during this period. Year-to-year variation is wide, and in drought years only 6-7 inches of rainfall may occur.4 Pinyon- juniper woodlands at 4,000-7,000 feet receive 12-15 inches of rainfall annually.5 Mountain shrub communities above this zone receive 15-30 inches of rainfall each year, about half of it as snow. Generally, precipitation is more favorable to revegetation at these altitudes than at other elevations in the Intermountain region. ]Meyn, R.L., J. Holechek, and E. Sundberg. "Short and Long Term Fertilizer Requirements for Reclamation of Mine Spoils at Colstrip, Montana," in Clark, W.F., ed. Proceedings of the Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 3: Reclamation Section. Billings, Mont.: Eastern Montana College, 1975, pp. 266-79; and Power, J.F., et al. "Factors Restricting Revegetation of Strip- Mine Spoils," in Clark. Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 3, pp. 336-46. 2Sindelar, B.W., R.L. Hodder, and M. Majorous. Surface Mined Reclamation Research in Montana, Research Report No. 40. Bozeman,Mont.:Montana Agricultural Experiment Station, 1972. 3Power et al. "Factors Restricting Revegetation." ''National Academy of Sciences. Rehabilitation Potential of Western Coal Lands, a report to the Energy Policy Project of the Ford Foundation.Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1974. 5Plummer, A.P., D.R. Christenson, and S.B. Hansen. Restor- ing Big Game Range in Utah, Publication No. 68-3. Salt Lake City,Utah:Utah, Department of Natural Resources, Division of Fish and Game, 1968; and Water Resources Council, Upper Colorado Region State-Federal Inter-Agency Group. Upper Colorado Region Comprehensive Framework Study. Denver, Colo.:Water Resources Council, 1971. 1052 ------- Soils in the Intermountain subarea vary greatly, having developed over a wide variety of original rock. Three major types are found in the coal-producing regions.1 Soils of dry sagebrush plateaus, mesas, and foothills in Utah are generally loamy but poor in organic matter and range from 20 to 60 inches in depth. Soils of sagebrush and juniper canyonlands, lower mountain slopes, and barren areas are less than 20 inches deep and subject to water erosion. Soils on western Colorado coal lands are loamy, rich in organic matter, and contain a variety of vegetation types; subsoils may contain clay and may have permeability problems. These soils are typically deep and are often farmed for dryland crops. All three of these soil types may require irrigation. Because of the area's variable geology, generalizations about overburden characteristics cannot be made. For example, in western Colorado, mine spoils from the Mesa Verde formation are predominately fragmented hard rock and have low water holding capacity compared to finer materials. Therefore, vegetation is difficult to establish and maintain. These spoils are low in both available phosphorus and nitrogen needed for plant growth.2 Although part of the Mesa Verde formation, overburden in the western Wyoming Kemmerer coal fields varies considerably. Acid- producing iron pyrite is present in some strata, while others are alkaline. The salinity, ease of erosion, high aluminum con- tent, and low pH (acidity/alkalinity) of some overburden mate- rials make plant growth difficult. The overburden in this area generally contains enough mineral nutrients to accommodate the growth of plants in a greenhouse, although additional nitrogen helps.3 (c) Southwestern Deserts Precipitation in this area is usually insufficient for satisfactory revegetation of mine spoils without supplemental irrigation. Annual rainfall averages 5-8 inches, but in 1Water Resources Council, Upper Colorado Region State-Federal Inter-Agency Group. Upper Colorado Region Comprehensive Frame- work Study. Denver, Colo. : Water Resources' Council, 1971. 2Berg, W.A. "Revegetation of Land Disturbed by Surface Mining in Colorado," in Wali, M.K., ed. Practices and Problems of Land Reclamation in Western North America. Grand Forks, N. Dak.: University of North Dakota Press, 1975. 3Lang, R.L. "Reclamation of Strip Mine Spoil Banks in Wyo- ming." University of Wyoming Agricultural Experiment Station Research Journal, Vol. 51 (1971). 1053 ------- exceptional years may range from 3 to 12 inches.l Rain falls largely in late summer (July through September); spring and fall seasons are generally dry.2 Rainfall is often very irregular,3 and conditions favorable for seeding and establishing plants may occur naturally only 1 in 10 years.1 The timing of rainfall is particularly critical; experimental work with one native grass on wild lands in New Mexico showed that it could be planted with 80 percent success during only 2 weeks in the year; success fell rapidly to zero both before and after this period.5 In areas such as Arizona's Black Mesa, high, gusty winds occur throughout the year. This enhances evaporation and thus results in inade- quate soil moisture, even though rainfall may reach 12 inches annually.6 Soils in the arid coal regions of Arizona and New Mexico are generally poorly developed, hold little moisture, and are high in salt content. Moreover, these soils are often sandy, and the loss of vegetation through overgrazing leads to erosion. Drifting National Academy of Sciences. Rehabilitation Potential of Western Coal Lands, a report to the Energy Policy Project of the Ford Foundation. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1974. 2Aldon, E.R., and H.W. Springfield. "Problems and Techniques in Revegetating Coal Mine Spoils in New Mexico," in Wali, M.K., ed. Practices and Problems of Land Reclamation in Western North America. Grand Forks, N. Dak.: University of North Dakota Press, 1975. 3Gould, W.L., D. Rai, and P.L. Wierenga. "Problems in Reclamation of Coal Mine Spoils in New Mexico," in Wali. Land Reclamation in Western North America. IAldon and Springfield. "Revegetating Coal Mine Spoils." 5Aldon, E.F. "Establishing Alkali Sacaton on Harsh Sites in the Southwest." Journal of Range Management, Vol. 28 (March 1975), pp. 129-92. 6Thames, J.L., and T.R. Verma. "Coal Mine Reclamation in the Black Mesa and the Four Corners Areas of Northeastern Ari- zona," in Wali. Land Reclamation in Western North America. 1054 ------- and blowing soils can easily bury seedlings or reduce plant cover by abrasion.1 Mine spoils in the Southwest may also pose problems. For example, in the Fruitland Formation in the San Juan Basin, the sandstones and shales generally contain excessive amounts of sodium, low quantities of phosphorus, and variable amounts of nitrogen.2 The development of soil-based mineral cycling systems takes place slowly. Centuries might be required before vegetation stabilizes,3 and 10-30 years may be required for natural revege- tation.4 (2) Probable Success of Revegetation The success of a reclamation effort and the techniques needed to achieve it are very much influenced by the objectives of a reclamation program and local features. The differences in soil and overburden characteristics described above may require slightly different treatments between areas within a single mine, and soils and underlying strata can vary markedly in their suit- ability for reclamation within a few miles.5 However, it is difficult to predict the success of revegetation in many western locations on the basis of available experimental results and !National Academy of Sciences. Rehabilitation Potential of Western Coal Lands, a report to the Energy Policy Project of the Ford Foundation, Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1974; Thames, J.L., and T.R. Verma. "Coal Mine Reclamation in the Black Mesa and the Four Corners Areas of Northeastern Arizona," in Wali, M.K., ed. Practices and Problems of Land Reclamation in Western North America. Grand Forks, N. Dak.: University of North Dakota Press, 1975; Gould, W.L., D. Rai, and P.L. Wierenga. "Problems in Reclamation of Coal Mine Spoils in New Mexico," in Wali. Land Reclamation in Western North America; and Aldon, E.F., and H.W. Springfield."Problems and Techniques in Revegetating Coal Mine Spoils in New Mexico," in Wali. Land Reclamation in Western North America. 2Gould, Rai, and Wierenga. "Problems in Reclamation." 3NAS. Rehabilitation Potential of Western Coal Lands. ''Cook, C.W., R.M. Hyde, and P.L. Sims. Guidelines for Reveg- etation and Stabilization of Surface Mined Areas in the Western States, Range Science Series No. 16. Fort Collins, Colo.: Colo- rado State University, Range Science Department, 1974. 5For example, soils of poor texture and low organic content can be improved by mulching. Soils of low nutrient content can be fertilized with nitrogen, phosphorus, or other limiting ele- ments. 1055 ------- field observations. As indicated above, local climatic condi- tions and the unreliability of rainfall over most of the area can potentially make the difference between success and failure in revegetation efforts. Further, in most areas, current experience covers a period of 6 years or less, which is not sufficient for the long-term stability of revegetated areas to be assessed.l Reclamation efforts in the western U.S. will be limited most consistently by the timing and quantity of moisture available to plants.2 The amount of precipitation and its seasonal distribu- tion largely determine the likelihood of successful revegetation, even though soils vary in their ability to retain the amount that falls in a manner which makes it available to plants. As indicated in the previous descriptions, areas generally receiving an average of 10 or more inches of rainfall per year can be made to support some plant growth without supplemental irrigation.3 When mined lands have been graded with care and planted properly with suitable species, some areas with as little as 6 inches of rain have been revegetated.4 In most of the semi- arid West, however, rainfall varies widely from year to year. Under these circumstances, periodic dry years or droughts lasting several years must be expected, and the success of revegetation at such times will be curtailed, especially in marginal areas.5 The timing of rainfall is crucial to the establishment of plant 1 Farmer, E.E., et al. Revegetation Research on the Decker Coal Mine in Southeastern Montana, Research Paper INT-162. Ogden, Utah: U.S., Department of Agriculture,, Forest Service, Inter- mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 1974. 2See for example: National Academy of Sciences. Rehabili- tation Potential of Western Coal Lands, a report to the Energy Policy Project of the Ford Foundation7 Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1974; Cook, C.W., R.M. Hyde, and P.L. Sims. Guide- lines for Revegetation and Stabilization of Surface Mined Areas in the Western States, Range Science Series No. 16. Fort Collins, Colo.: Colorado State University, Range Science Department, 1974; Packer, Paul E. Rehabilitation Potentials and Limitations of Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great Plains, General Tech- nical Report INT-14. Ogden, Utah: U.S., Department of Agricul- ture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 1974. 3NAS. Rehabilitation Potential of Western Coal Lands. ''Davis, Grant. U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Ser- vice, SEAM Program. Personal Communication, November 3, 1976. 5NAS. Rehabilitation Potential of Western Coal Lands; and Packer. Rehabilitation of Surface-Mined Land. 1056 ------- cover. A lack of precipitation shortly after planting can reduce seedling success, and a difference of only 1-2 inches over the entire growing season may have significant consequences depending on its timing. Because of this, there will be a significant number of cases where reclamation efforts will either fail or be only marginally successful, especially where poor soil or top- soil characteristics are combined with an arid climate. Erratic rainfall patterns over the lifetime of a given mine may also be expected in years when seedling failure is unavoidable. Over the long term, it will probably be possible to estab- lish a cover of range grasses capable of containing erosion on most sites in the Northern Great Plains and in the higher foot- hill coal fields receiving adequate rainfall. However, this long-term trend may be punctuated by setbacks from periods of drought; provision for irrigation would mitigate this. During these periods, intensive management will be required for both seeded and established vegetation. Revegetation of some of the drier foothill sites will have a lesser chance for success, depending primarily on stresses over and above those arising from climate (such as those resulting from soil salinity and provisions for irrigation). Finally, in view of experience and the many adverse influences arrayed against desert sites, revege- tation will be difficult unless the sites are prepared carefully and seedlings are planted, intensively managed, and irrigated, with grazing and public access strictly controlled. (3) Reclamation for Specific Biological Objectives Four biological objectives for reclamation are restoring natural vegetation, providing wildlife habitat, establishing livestock forage, and establishing croplands. Reestablishing native vegetation is difficult, and in some instances the orig- inal vegetation has not been present for decades or longer. Reclamation for wildlife is a more complicated process than restoration .for livestock forage or cropland use. In contrast to grazing or farming, wildlife restoration must meet the needs of a relatively large number of animal species, which in turn requires a greater variety of plant species. Site character- istics, such as diverse topography and exposure, also play a large part in determining both the variety of vegetation that becomes established and the value of the habitat to wildlife. One example of the beneficial effects of diverse topography on wildlife values is the Knife River Coal Company's Beulah mine, which has helped maintain or increase the area's populations of grouse, pheasant, deer, and other small vertebrates. Prior to the establishment of state requirements for grading to a gently rolling contour, the spoils were left standing with only the ridgetops flattened. Planted shrub, grass, and forb species, selected for their food and cover value, have established thick stands in the valleys between the close-set spoil ridges where runoff provides high soil moisture content. Wildlife finds both 1057 ------- food and shelter from winter storms, which typically cause large losses of upland wildlife. Federal Reclamation Standards and the western states now require mined lands to be regraded to some extent. In addition to topographical variability, wildlife diversity and abundance are related to the spatial patterning of vegeta- tion. A mosaic of grasses, low shrubs and thickets, and taller trees, combined with available free water, are necessary for many western species 'such as sharptail and sage grouse, jackrabbits and cottontails, and many birds of prey. A combination of nutri- tive food plants adequate to meet the varied needs of grazers, browsers, and seed and fruit eaters is necessary to reestablish the full complement of native fauna, including insects that are important food sources. Several factors limit the success of woody plants. First, these plants grow slower than grasses and forbs. To speed the process, nursery stock may be planted, but this is expensive. Second, once planted, young shrubs and trees need protection from wildlife and livestock for 10-15 years before they can tolerate browsing. Third, natural rainfall may be insufficient or competition from other plants for the limited moisture on mine spoils may inhibit success. Reclamation may attempt to restore grazing alone, and in the Northern Great Plains, particularly North Dakota, mined land may be planted to crops. This would favor animal species character- istic of early grassland succession rather than woody vegetation. In these "replacement" or successional communities in the North- ern Great Plains, antelope, deer, grouse, jackrabbits, and a variety of small vertebrates will be infrequent on mined lands restored for grazing. Burrowing animals will be limited by the texture of the spoils themselves; black-footed ferrets and bur- rowing owls, normally associated closely with prairie dog col- onies will also be affected. Intermountain cool areas are less homogeneous, and thus it is more difficult to specify what changes in wildlife communities may take place. Unless shrub cover is restored on foothill areas, however, deer and elk will be unable to use mined lands for winter range, and many western slope coals now underlie present big game winter ranges. As discussed in Chapter 5, strip mine areas in the desert southwest have already experienced stress from overgrazing, with an attendant loss of soil that will make restoration of rangelands more difficult. Also, even if successfully restored, these lands will likely be of low productivity. Croplands may also be established in reclaimed areas and will likely expand in the eight-state region. The growth of 1058 ------- agriculture may occur in the same time frame as the energy devel- opment scenario. A recent study1 reports that new cropland is currently added at a nationwide rate of 1.25 million acres per year. At this rate, some 31 million acres will be brought under cultivation by the year 2000. However, a rapidly growing world food demand may result in the acceleration of agricultural expansion. Presently, only 81 percent (380 million acres) of the arable land in the U.S. is cropped. Thus, a theoretical maximum of 90 million acres could be added by 2000, not counting marginal lands requiring drainage or irrigation. In addition to new cropland being brought under cultivation, existing cropland is currently being lost at a national rate of 2.5 million acres per year to highways and urbanization. Since 1935, 100 million acres have been lost because of soil erosion. Most of these represent lost native ecosystems and wildlife habitat (although farms abandoned due to erosion eventually regain their value as habitat, at least for successional species). Thus, between 1975 and 2000 the nation may lose between 93 and 152 million acres of rangeland and native ecosystems from activities other than energy development, and reclamation for agricultural purposes may have a high priority according to agricultural interests. By comparison, land-use estimates for mining (Nominal case, Table 11-57) presented in this section with the potential for reclamation total only 0.95 million acres, much of which may utlimately be used for crops.2 11.5.4 Ecological Impacts of Sulfur Pollution A great deal of concern exists concerning the potential damage of widespread SOz emissions on vegetation in the western energy resource states.3 For example, livestock grazing is a major economic activity, and the potential threat of energy development to rangeland productivity can become a major issue in the eight-state area. Forests and other vegetation are also regarded as important resources. In view of projected increases ^imentel, D., et al. "Land Degradation: Effects on Food and Energy Resources?""Science, Vol. 194 (October 8, 1976), pp. 149-55. 2Highest land demands occur in the Northern Great Plains where reclamation for cropland is most feasible. 3Gordon, C.C., and P.C. Tourangeau. "Biological Effects of Coal-Fired Power Plants," in Clark, W.F., ed. Proceedings of the Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 5: Terrestrial Ecosystems Section. Billings, Mont.: Eastern Montana College, 1975, pp. 509-30. 1059 ------- in livestock grazing of up to 80 percent by the year 2000, 1 even small, chronic declines in productivity over large areas of the West could have measurable economic impacts. The impacts of S02 emissions, both directly and through the formation of sulfates, including acid rain, have received much attention, and adverse effects on vegetation have been widely documented. However, two major knowledge gaps prevent investi- gators from using regional S02 emission figures to predict the possibility of chronic S02 damage or acid rainfall: insufficient knowledge of the mechanisms by which S0;> emissions may be trans- lated into particulate sulfate fallout rates or low pH rainfall, and inadequate sophistication of dispersion models at a regional. level.2 According to the air impact analysis in Section 11.2, SO2 emissions in 2000 (Nominal case) would reach 663,000 tons per year (tpy) in North Dakota and 1,360,000 tpy in Montana with scrubbers removing 80 percent of the S02. Impacts in the oil shale development region, especially in Rio Blanco County, Colorado, are further complicated by the irregularity of the surrounding terrain, which can permit pollutants to be trapped in low-lying areas or cause plumes to impact on prominent ridges or mountainsides. Although it is not possible to make definitive statements about the likelihood of either particulate sulfate fallout or acid rain in these areas, the question may be approached by analogy with experiments or case histories as described below. The effects of air pollution on the structure and function of plant communities can be separated into three classes:3 unde- tectable or potentially beneficial effects; chronic harmful effects; and acute harmful effects. The term "harmful" effects here refers to reduction in plant growth or productivity. Unde- tectable or potentially beneficial impacts are associated with Northern Great Plains Resources Program. Effects of Coal Development in the Northern Great Plains: A Review of Major Issues and Consequences at Different Rates of Development. Den- ver, Colo.: Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1975. 2Ground-level concentrations used in this section are derived from dispersion models which may have an error range of up to 50 percent. However, conservative assumptions built into the models are thought to result in predicted levels high enough to compensate for this error. The net result is a figure which may exceed, but probably does not underestimate, actual field conditions. 3Smith, W.H. "Air Pollution—Effects on the Structure and Function of the Temperate Forest Ecosystem." Environmental Pol- lution, Vol. 6 (February 1974), pp. 111-29. 1060 ------- low pollution loads. Although there may be no detectable impact on individual plants, pollutants enter the mineral cycle of the ecosystem via normal pathways. This effect may not be harmful and may improve productivity if a particular mineral (such as sulfur) is in short supply. Chronic harmful effects arise from intermediate pollution loads that result in damage to susceptible plant species, such as pines, typically over periods of months or a few years. Such effects may include lowered productivity, reduced reproduction, or increased susceptibility to disease or insect infestation. Where species are affected differently, competitive relationships may be altered and the composition of species in a community changed. Acid rain can be placed in this category. In addition to its direct impacts on plants, acid rain is believed to cause increased leaching of nutrients from soils. The net effect on the entire plant community may be to reduce biomass and productivity. This loss of mineral nutrients may be reversible only after very long periods of time, if at all. Also, ecosystem impacts may not be simply additive because changed competitive relationships can bring about the dominance of new species able to tolerate pollu- tion stress better than competitors. Acute impacts occur when ambient pollutant concentrations are high enough to cause acute damage to plants. If sufficiently severe, this impact can eliminate species from the affected community. Since woody plants are often more susceptible to acute damage than are herbaceous species, loss of dominants may change the physical structure of the vegetation. Extensive veg- etation loss results in erosion and affects mineral cycling through direct soil loss. In most ecosystems, these effects will combine to reduce the amount of primary plant production avail- able to the animal community; further ecosystem simplification can take place as a result of reduced energy flow through the food web. Acute and chronic impacts lessen the economic value of the vegetation and reduce its complexity and, perhaps, its ability to respond adaptively to other stresses such as drought. Low- level impacts may actually increase productivity in some circum- stances. The following discussion covers acute impacts first, followed by chronic and low-level effects. A. » Acute Impacts Leaf injury (damage) from short-term exposure generally requires very high levels of SC>2. Concentrations of SC-2 which experimentally produce acute damage in 2-7 hours for a number of common western range grasses, important wildlife browse plants, trees, and crops are tabulated in Table 11-58; these experiments indicate that damage occurs between 0.4 and 10 parts per million (ppm). Results were selected to show the effects of exposures 1061 ------- 00 IT) I fJ3 2 o H EH H Q 2 O U J2 O H EH •^ ^> BJ tO 03 O Cu O DJ ^H ^ 2 _ £ ™ s ^ 2 §"" W 2 §-. 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C S ra D E 2 0) •H LT> tsj 01 Hi rH 1063 ------- correspondinq roughly to the shortest averaging times (3-hour and 24-hour averages) used to calculate maximum ground-level SO? concentrations for the six site-specific scenarios. Extreme high values, resulting from plume impaction on high terrain, may be as much as 0.43 ppm,1 while in the ventilated areas with flat terrain and lower sulfur coal highest 3-hour maxima are only to 0.13 ppm.2 Power plants, Synthoil plants, and TOSCO II (the Oil Shale Company) plants create the highest 3-hour average concentrations. These maxima approach concentrations that have produced experimental injury in ponderosa pine and alfalfa. More typical 3-hour periods produce ground-level concentrations one-tenth to one-hundredth as high. However, large areas of vegetation would not be expected to experience acute toxicity under the worst dispersion conditions considered. High ground- level concentrations result from direct impaction of a plume on high terrain. The highest modeled 3-hour concentration, 0.43 ppm from the Escalante power plant, occurs under these circumstances. Here, concentrations remain consis- tently high throughout the averaging period, but the affected area is quite small (roughly 1 or 2 square miles) . For most scenarios, ground- level concentrations will be 3-10 times lower than concentrations known to cause acute injury in fumigation experiments. In some scenarios, however, irregular terrain may result in infrequent plume impaction that could raise ground concentrations to levels which may cause acute damage to sensitive species. Some visible damage to ponderosa pine could occur within limited areas, especially in southern Utah and western Colorado. Elsewhere, sensitive species may be exposed to S02 levels near, but below, known damage levels. Evergreens are susceptible year-round, but the worst dispersion conditions over most of the eight-state region occur in the -winter when most vegetation species are in^ a seasonal minimum of activity. B. Chronic Impacts Chronic damage to plants typically occurs at much lower con- centrations than does acute damage. The premature loss of needles observed near the Mount Storm power plant in West Virginia3 was associated with average SO2 concentrations of 0.01 the Escalante Power Plant, see Chapter 4. 2For the Gillette scenario, see Chapter 7. 3U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Air Pollution Con- trol Office. Mount Storm, West Virginia/German, Maryland and Luke, Maryland/Kaiser, West VirginiaT" Air Pollution Abatement Activity , APTD-0656. Research Triangle Park, N.C.: Environ- mental Protection Agency, 1971. 1064 ------- ppm, although 1-hour maxima as high as 0.36 ppm were recorded. Reductions of 15 percent in the yield weights of grain have been reported for winter wheat under chronic 862 levels averaging 0.015-0.05 ppm.,1 Chronic damage to alfalfa has been observed at concentrations between 0.024 and 0.051 ppm.2 All these species are especially sensitive to S02. Analysis of air impacts in the site-specific scenarios showed that multiple plume interactions seldom occur, and when they do, their cumulative effect on ground-level concentrations is less than the peak levels modeled for the individual plants. Conse- quently, in this regional discussion where the exact locations of the emission sources are not known, it is assumed that maximum ground-level concentrations can still be estimated in terms of individual plants, with the understanding that these impacts may be felt in many locations in the region as a whole.3 Using 24-hour averaging times, worst-case concentrations range between 0.001 ppm (modified in situ shale processing, Rifle) and 0.12 ppm (power plant, Escalante). Assuming the cut-off point for chronic damage is 0.01 ppm, an examination of the peak 24-hour averages predicted for the local scenarios shows that concentra- tions exceeding this level can generally be expected downwind of power plants, at least at some time. However, these are infre- quent peaks and cover shorter periods than those usually associated with observed chronic S02 damage to plants in the field. Ecological damage thought to result from acid rainfall has been documented in Scandinavia from long-distance transport of sulfates from England and in Germany's industrialized Ruhr ^uderian, R., and H. Stratmann. Forschungsberichte des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen No. 1118. Koln: Westdeutscher Verlag, 1968, p~. 5l and Guderian,R. , and H. Stratmann. Forschungs- berichte des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen No. 1920. Koln: Westdeutscher Verlag, 1968, p. 3. 2Guderian, R., and H. Van Haut. "Detection of S02 Effects Upon Plants." Staub-Reinhaltung der Luft, Vol. 30 (1970), pp. 22-35. Background S02 data are scarce in the western states. How- ever, existing figures indicate that typical levels are only a few yg/m3, too small to make a difference significant to plants when added to calculated ground-level concentrations arising from energy facilities. 1065 ------- district.1 In New Hampshire, rainfall acidification due to emissions from the urban industrial complexes of New England has also been documented.2 From these and other studies, the following points emerge: • Mechanisms of Acidification. The mechanisms by which rainfall is acidified are just now beginning to be understood qualitatively, and quantitative predictions of the effects on rainfall pH of given SO2 emissions cannot yet be made. While some investigators have con- cluded that rainfall pH is governed by strong acids (such as sulfuric acid), others have presented evidence that weak acids may also be involved. In spite of this lack of agreement, it is apparent that other ions besides sulfates are involved in determining the pH of rain. The major species appear to be sulfates, nitrates, and chlorides.1* In addition to industrial sources, large amounts of nitrogen apparently enter the atmos- phere because of the use of ammonia and nitrate fer- tilizers.5 Atmospheric chloride ions, contributing to the formation of hydrochloric acid, also originate from the sea. • Pathways into Terrestrial Ecosystems. Much of the sulfur reaching "Sweden has been shown to be in the form of neutral ammonium sulfate compounds. These particles, which are thought to form catalytically or photochemically lBolin, B., Chairman. Sweden's Case Study Contributions to the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment—Air Pol- lution Across International Boundaries; The Impact on the "Envi- ronment of Sulfur in Air and Precipitation. Stockholm: Royal Ministry for Foreign Affairs,Kingl.Boktrychereit, P.A. Norsledt et Soner, 1971. 2Whittaker, R.H., et al. "The Hubbard Brook Ecosystem Study: Forest Biomass and Production." Ecological Monographs, Vol. 44 (Spring 1974), pp. 233-54. 3Frohliger, J.O., and R. Kane. "Precipitation: .Its Acidic Nature." Science, Vol. 189 (August 8, 1975), pp. 455-57. ^Likens, G.E., and F.H. Bormann. "Acid Rain: A Serious Regional Environmental Problem." Science, Vol. 184 (June 14, 1974), pp. 1176-79. 5Tabatabai, M.S., and J.M. Laflen. "Nutrient Content of Precipitation Over Iowa," abstract in First International Sympo- sium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem, Program and Abstracts. Columbus, Ohio: Ohio State University, Atmospheric Sciences Program, 1975. 1066 ------- in the air, enter the ecosystem as dry fallout. However, when the ammonia is absorbed by plants, both the remain- ing ammonia and the released sulfate ions tend to acidify soils.1 Forest vegetation tends to filter out such par- ticulates.2 This may expose forests differentially to acidification problems. However, airborne alkaline or calcareous dust may increase the pH of rainfall and thereby counteract the effect of acid-forming substances in the air.3 It has been suggested that the pH of rain- fall depends jointly on atmospheric sulfur loading, the amount of dense forest vegetation in the area, and the extent of calcareous or limestone soils.1* Geographic Variation. Observations of chronic damage from acid rainfall are not always consistent geograph- ically. Recent efforts to use tree-ring data to docu- ment the impacts of region-wide reductions in rainfall pH in New England and Tennessee failed to reveal a statistically significant trend on a regional level, despite the evidence of the Hubbard Brook Study in New Hampshire.5 Similarly, using the same method, no consistent trend in forest productivity has been ^ochinger, L.S., and T.A. Seliga. "Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem: A Report from the First International Sym- posium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem." Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, Vol. 25 (November 1975), pp. 1103-5; Brosset, C. "The Role of Acid Particles in Acidifi- cation," abstract in First International Symposium on Acid Precip- itation and the Forest Ecosystem, Program and Abstracts. Colum- bus, Ohio: Ohio State University, Atmospheric Sciences Programs, 1975. 2Davis, B.L., et al. The Black Hills as a "Green Area" Sink for Atmospheric Pollutants, First Annual Report,prepared for the USDA Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Report 75-8. Rapid City, S.Dak.: South Dakota School of Mines and Tech- nology, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, 1975. 3Cooper, H.B.H., et al. "Chemical Composition Affecting the Formation of Acid Precipitation," abstract in Symposium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem. ^Winkler, E.M. "Natural Dust and Acid Rain," abstract in Symposium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem. 5Cogbill, C.V. "The Effect of Acid Precipitation on Tree Growth in Eastern North America," abstract in Symposium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem. 1067 ------- discovered in Norway.1 In the northeastern U.S., a recent investigation found that the rate of nutrient loss from upland forest watersheds is still quite low, in spite of the rising acidity of rainfall.2 Acid rain has also been associated with single large sources, including large power generation complexes. In studies of the effects of multiple-plant generation complexes in West Virginia and Tennessee, premature pine needle drop, damage to crops, and reduced soil fertility were correlated with acid rain. In these cases, S02 emissions were generally greater than individual plant projections in this technology assessment.3 SO2 emissions den- sities at levels projected for the Nominal case for the Powder River Region in the year 2000 (see Section 11.2) are about one- third the SO2 emissions densities of the highest industrialized states (e.g., Ohio) in the East, assuming 80 percent SO2 removal from power plants. However, in eastern locations, rainfall is four to six times greater than in the eight-state study area. Acid rainfall due to lower emissions densities and rainfall seems less likely to become a regional problem in the eastern U.S. C. Low-Level Effects Atmospheric dispersion alone will likely result in low-level effects around most or all of the large facilities sited in the eight-state study area. In some areas, especially where disper- sion is rapid (as in Wyoming), sulfur additions may be so small as to exert no detectable influence on either soil sulfur levels or plant productivity. Slightly larger sulfur inputs may enter the sulfur cycle through direct absorption by plants as S02, dry fallout, or rain scavenging. ^brahamsen, G., and B. Tveite. "Impacts of Acid Precipita- tion on Coniferous Forest Ecosystems," abstract in First Inter- national Symposium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Eco- system, Program and Abstracts. Columbus,Ohio:Ohio State University,Atmospheric Sciences Program, 1975. 2Johnson, N.M. , R.C. Reynolds, arid G.E. Likens. "Atmos- pheric Sulfur: Its Effect on the Chemical Weathering of New England." Science, Vol. 177 (August 11, 1972), pp. 514-16. 3There are four plants in the Mount Storm area, totaling 3,400 MWe and emitting 788,000 tons of S02 in 1973. These plants burn high-sulfur coal without scrubbers. The Shawnee plant in Tennessee is rated at 1,750 MWe and emits 228,600 tons per year (1973). By contrast, the hypothetical Colstrip power plant will generate 3,000 MWe but will burn low-sulfur or medium-sulfur coal with scrubbers; its yearly emissions will be 14,000 tons. 1068 ------- 11.5.5 Summary of Regional Ecological Impacts The effects described above will change some existing pat- tern of stresses to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Consump- tive water use will result in flow depletion on some rivers. Especially vulnerable are the San Juan, the White, the Upper Colorado, and the Yellowstone. Cumulative impacts will also have adverse effects on the lower Colorado and Missouri. In-stream flow needs to protect aquatic ecosystems have not been estab- lished for most of these rivers, but it is expected that with- drawals could produce adverse impacts in several drainages. In addition to the physical impact of flow reduction, loss of dilu- tion capacity increases the risk of harmful impacts due to the discharge of municipal effluents, agricultural runoff, and con- taminated groundwater discharge. However, increased salinity does not appear to be a serious ecological problem. Construction of water supply systems may involve placing reservoirs on smaller tributary rivers and streams. These reservoirs can be beneficial in that they will trap sediment, provide fishery habitat, and can be used to regulate downstream flows. However, they also may interfere with spawning runs, destroy valuable riparian habitat, and build up excessive nutrient enrichment from agricultural runoff. Increased backcountry recreational pressure may become a serious problem to some terrestrial ecosystems, especially high alpine areas, high- and mid-elevation mountain valleys, and adja- cent desert watercourses. These habitats are critical to maintaining present levels of ecological diversity and are limited in extent. The heaviest population-related impacts will occur in the Black Hills, the Bighorn Mountains, and the moun- tainous areas surrounding the Colorado oil shale deposits. Because of the extensive land use for strip mining in the Northern Great Plains, reclamation will be important. Reclama- tion success depends primarily on the extent and timing of rain- fall, soil type and overburden characteristics, and the resiliency of plant and animal communities in restoration. The Southwestern deserts will be most difficult to reclaim because of low rainfall, poor soil characteristics, and overgrazing. Revegetation will probably be successful in the remainder of the eight-state region, but wildlife abundance and diversity will be reduced if grazing or crop production are the major reclamation objectives. Development of large numbers of SO2 emission sources over the western region is not expected to result in widespread damage to vegetation. Although the fate of sulfates in the air is poorly understood, comparison with recorded cases suggests that acid rainfall is unlikely to become a widespread problem. Acute damage to vegetation is expected only where rough terrain causes plume impaction. The oil shale area of western Colorado is the 1069 ------- only region in which multiple sources are expected to result in cumulative impacts which could be chronically damaging to vegeta- tion over areas of more than 1 or 2 square miles. 11.6 TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS 11.6.1 Introduction Development of energy resources in the eight-state study area will produce solids, liquids, gases, and electricity as energy forms, with a different set of transportation modes available for each form (see Figure 11-16). In this analysis of energy trans- portation impacts, particular attention is paid to coal because (1) there are a wide variety of transportation options in the coal resource development system,1 (2) a substantial investment is required (perhaps 75 percent of total western energy trans- portation investment) to develop the coal transportation system, and (3) there is substantial controversy surrounding the relative merits of rail and slurry pipeline systems. In this section, the expected increase in the overall mag- nitude of western energy transportation is assessed, with some detail on modes and routes. The characteristics of the modes are then discussed, both in terms of their resource requirements (such as water) and in terms of their impacts (such as noise). 11.6.2 Magnitude of Transportation Activity A. Coal Figure 11-17 presents projections of the major movements of western coal used by electric utilities in the year 2000. It is based on a scenario of high coal use (v/estern production for utilities of 788 million tons per year) and minimal environmental protection.2 It should be borne in mind that the flows depend critically on such factors as air pollution policy. One study has projected, for example, that a uniformly applied 90 percent sulfur removal standard could reduce flows from the Northern In addition to the modes shown in Figure 11-16, barges, trucks, and conveyors play a significant role in the eastern half of the country and localized areas in the West. 2Teknekron Inc., "Projections of Utility Coal Movement Patterns: 1980-2000," in U.S., Congress, Office of Technology Assessment. Task Reports; Slurry Coal Pipelines, Vol. II, Part 1. Washington, D.C.:Office of Technology Assessment, 1978. The 788 million tons per year exported from the West for use by utilities is equivalent to about 68 percent of all western coal production projected in the SRI Low Demand case and 50 percent of production projected in the SRI Nominal Demand case for 2000. 1070 ------- RESOURCE MINE-SITE CONVERSION TRANSPORT UNK DEMAND CENTER CONVERSION COAL POWER PLANT LIQUEFACTION GASIFICATION SLURRY ING "\| ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION! J L LIQUIDS PIPELINE J L GAS PIPELINE UNIT TRAIN SLURRV PIPELINE 1 NATURAL GAS \| GEOTHERMAL n pj WATER HEATING j^^ H "\| POWER PLANT j^^ "~~\| GAS PIPELINE f ' » "^H ELECTRIC TRANSMBSIONh " " -1 tLtCIHICIIV \| FIGURE 11-16: CONVERSION/TRANSPORT CONFIGURATIONS 1071 ------- 0 INTRASTATE VOLUMES PROPORTIONAL TO WIDTH: (V'=200 M.t.p.y.) FIGURE 11-17: UTILITY COAL TRANSPORTATION FROM WESTERN SOURCES, YEAR 2000 1072 ------- Great Plains to the Midwest by a factor of four or more.1 Nevertheless, the major movement of western coal will probably be from the Northern Great Plains eastward and southward. The largest single direction of movement will be from Wyoming to Texas, caused by extensive replacement of gas-fired power plants with coal-fired power plants.2 There is considerable uncertainty about the split of coal transportation between railroad and slurry modes. It is generally agreed that slurry pipelines are most economical when transporting large volumes over long distances, but investigators differ widely in quantifying these cost parameters. A rough estimate has been obtained by assuming that rail is more economical for all movements under 400 miles or 4 Mlitpy and that pipeline is more economical for all movements over both 950 miles and 18 million tons.3 These economic criteria imply that 48 percent of coal produced in the West would be transported by pipeline. This is equivalent to 62 percent of the coal which leaves the eight-state study area. Routes involved would be from Wyoming and Colorado to Texas, Kansas, Missouri, and Indiana. B. Gases, Liquids, and Electricity The magnitude of transportation of gases, liquids, and elec- tricity was traced in the process of implementing the Stanford Research Institute interfuel competition model.4 The model divides the U.S. into geographic regions, with resources, demands, and costs specified on a regional basis. On the basis of de- livered costs, the model determines the quantity of energy which will be transported by each alternative among the supply and de- mand centers. The transportation links in the model extend from ^rohm, G.C., C.D. Dux, and J.C. Van Kuiken. Effect on Regional Coal Markets of the "Best Available Control Technology" Policy for Sulfur Emissions, National Coal Utilization Assessment. Argonne, 111.: Argonne National Laboratory, 1977. 2However, the potential use by Texas utilities of Texas lignite makes this Wyoming to Texas projection quite uncertain. Intermediate situations can be allocated on the basis of some site-specific analysis. See General Research Corporation and International Research and Technology. "A Study of the Com- petitive and Economic Impact Associated with Coal Slurry Pipeline Implementation," in U.S., Congress, Office of Technology Assess- ment. Task Reports: Coal Slurry Pipelines, Vol. II, Part 1. Washington,D.C.:Office"of Technology Assessment, 1978. ^Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Develop- ment Study: Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford Research Institute, 1976. 1073 ------- the energy resource areas to the centroids1 of the energy demand regions. No attempt was made to simulate the complex network of links among numerous cities and towns. Results are displayed in Figures 11-18, 11-19, and 11-20. Based on the Nominal Demand case, nine gas pipelines, each with a capacity of 1 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day, will originate in the Northern Great Plains, while four gas pipelines will be required in the Four Corners area in the year 2000 to transport both natural and synthetic gas. Data filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) show that two major interstate gas pipeline companies have lines currently trans- versing the Four Corners states with a total yearly capacity of 2,341 bcf, exclusive of added compression or looping which would increase the capacity. Therefore, except for short gathering lines to tie in with these existing trunk lines, it is anticipated that no new pipelines will be required to transport the gas pro- jected to be produced in the Rocky Mountain region for the Nominal case. Existing lines will progressively transport less natural gas and more synthetic gas. Based on the same Federal Power Commission (FPC) data, one major gas pipeline with a capacity of 56 bcf per year currently traverses the Northern Great Plains. In addition, a leg of the proposed Alcan gas pipeline will pass through part of the region.2 The Nominal case will require that 4 bcf, 201 bcf, and 3.43 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas per year be produced in the Northern Great Plains in 1985, 1990, and 2000, respectively. In this case, current lines will be adequate until the late 1980's, but new pipelines with a capacity of 3.37 tcf per year will be required by 2000 to meet the projected flows. Liquid fuel flows from the western region will consist of shale oil, conventionally produced crude oil, and coal syncrude. Existing trunkline capacity from the Northern Great Plains has been estimated as 620,000 bbl/day.3 In the Nominal case, 142,000 bbl/day will be produced in the year 2000 in the area. Therefore, except for tie-in lines, existing crude oil trunkline :A centroid of a region is calculated as the point which minimizes the average distance to all other points in the region. 2"President Chooses Alcan to Move Prudhoe Gas." Oil and Gas Journal, Vol. 75 (September 12, 1977), p. 73. 3U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Coal Research. Prospective Regional Markets of Coal Conversion Plant Products Projected to 1980 and 1985. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1974. 1074 ------- oo iH I W K D O H 1075 ------- o o >H O O H Q CO 2 ------- o CN I W H 1077 ------- capacity should be capable of transporting the projected produc- tion of liquid fossil fuels from the Northern Great Plains to refinery centers. In the Nominal case, the Four Corners area will produce 3.91 million bbl/day of liquid fossil fuels in the year 2000. However, the Interstate Commerce Commission estimates the available crude oil trunkline capacity out of the area as only 260,000 bbl/day.1 As a result, almost all the approximately 2,400 miles of 36-inch pipelines projected to be required must be newly constructed. Most of the new electric power plants in the West are assumed to be located at the mine-mouth. This will entail new transmission facilities to tie into existing grid systems because few of the hypothesized mines are located near metropolitan demand centers. For the Nominal case in 2000, approximately 13,000 miles of new lines will be required. The choice between alternating current (AC) and direct current (DC) will involve detailed consideration of the advantages and disadvantages of each system on a case by case basis. However, DC transmission at 600 kilovolts(kV) was assumed in performing this regional scenario analysis because it has potential for lower power losses and reduced environmental impact in the high-volume, long-distance applications considered in this study. It must be recognized, however, that technology oE transmitting electricity via high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines is still in its early development stages as compared to AC transmission, and the use of HVDC has been fairly limited. Of the 39,502 circuit miles of overhead extra-high voltage transmission lines operational in 1974, only 865 miles were DC lines operating at ±400 kV.2 11.6.3 Input Requirements A. Economic Costs Table 11-59 summarizes information on the costs of energy transportation on a unit basis and Table 11-60 summarizes costs for the entire region. The front-end costs of unit train systems will consist of hopper cars, locomotives, new track, and upgrading of existing ^.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Coal Research. Prospective Regional Markets of Coal Conversion Plant Products Projected to 1980 and 19851Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1974. 2"The Electric Century, 1874-1974." Electrical World, Vol. 181 (June 1, 1974), p. 431. 1078 ------- TABLE 11-59: SUMMARY ESTIMATES OF THE ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF TRANSPORT MODES MODE DC Transmission Unit Trains Pipelines Slurry Gas Oil UNIT COST3 $2.78 0.60 0.75 0.56 0.078 FIXED PORTION OF COST (percent) 84.6 12.2 79.3 50.9 73.1 ENERGY CONSUMPTION0 (percent) 11.0 2.5 2.9 9.6 1.1 DC = direct current aExcept for electricity, the costs are 1975 dollars per million British thermal units (Btu) of energy flow over routes of 1,000 miles. In order to make the costs roughly comparable, the unit costs of electricity are expressed in terms of 1975 dollars per million Btu of electric energy, which assuming a 35 percent conversion efficiency requires three million Btu heat input at the power plant. Percent of annualized cost accounted for by amortization of initial investment. Assumed annual carrying charge of 22.8 percent. Percent of energy input which is lost or consumed over a 1,000 mile route. track. All of these costs will vary depending on the character- istics of the particular route being considered, such as the physical condition of the roadbed, signalling systems, and other traffic. These factors also play a role in determining the average speed of the trains and hence how much rolling stock is needed to deliver coal at a given rate. Railroads have been spending less and less on track mainte- nance over the last two decades. Results of a study for the Federal Energy Administration indicated that to restore 71 per- cent of the national rail lines (rails and ties) to normal condition will require $4.1 billion. A total expenditure of 1079 ------- o I rH W w CO o p H rH CO _ O UH ''^ " ° 2 j rn to f— 1 UJ L <; 0 nj H O V M -H -o U -H 43 CO H p PM S £3 O Pi re H t/3 CTi H rH CO O u-i O o o 2 cO H i ^ M -H ,2 , >1 rH ft CX 13 ,£3 4J 4-1 M-4 (]} tQ i i ^ 1 1 m ro c O ro oo ro r~- O oo <3" <3" • O • 0 ' rH rH 0 co r~^> \^ c? CN O> CT. r-l 00 O •> H %H cd -H ^ 4-1 H 3 'lH W r-l rH a Cd CJ -H CO P O O O cn 4J cx 3 o 4-1 C O) cr? 13 ^-i 01 cx cn CJ rH •H 01 i-i SH O CO O) 43 O> C 1 0 4-1 -H 4-1 rH CO r-l cfl °E 60 QJ II e 13 II rH O (1) J2 S ^5 ^ § pXj CO 13 M ^~i CO Q) 0) CX ^ 4-1 t-t 0) CD QJ cx UH CO O C -H 4-1 O 43 fl! 4-130) CJ M C M 0 C 3 •H 0 O rH -H rH rH 4-1 •H rH O 6 -rl 0) 43 )-l II -H II T3 CX 'O II 4-1 <4H S o o IS 43 p •H 3 cr 0) 4-J o QJ i — I UH 0) M O 4-1 T3 OJ C/l 3 •r-l cd OJ CO cn OJ •rH 4-1 •H 4-1 a cn cfl 0) 3 rH cr -H ^ E cn o 0) O cn o Cd r. O rH 13 U-i a o cd ai o P B ^3 rH 4-) CO CO C -H •H -a S 0 T3 25 0) N T3 'H cd i-i cd & 13 0 0 i-4 cd 4-1 43 cn O cO M G Q) M > cd o 1080 ------- $12 billion has been estimated for complete restoration.1 It was not determined whether this restoration process would enable existing lines to carry the increased tonnage required for coal unit trains. Existing rail lines might not be able to accommo- date the tonnage and speed of projected coal unit train traffic. Some lines have been constructed specifically for unit trains,2 but for many lines, new ballast, ties, and heavier rails will probably be required. Assuming that 33,000 miles of western track will require upgrading at a cost of $100,000 per mile, total upgrading cost would come to some $3.3 billion. There is considerable disagreement as to how many trains can be run on a given route. Various investigators have used figures in their studies ranging from 253 to 230U MMtpy on a double track line. Assuming a saturation point of 70 MMtpy, 6,600 miles of new lines would be needed for moving western coal, at a cost of almost $2.0 billion.5 In any case, the larger portion of cost in a unit train system comes in the form of operating costs, as can be seen in Table 11-59, ^.S., Federal Energy Administration. Project Independence Blueprint, Final Task Force Report, Analysis~of Requirements and Constraints on the Transport of Energy Materials, Vol.T~.Wash- ington, B.C.: Government Printing Office, 1974. 2Doran, Richard K., Mary K. Duff, and John S. Gilmore. Socio-Economic Impacts of Proposed Burlington-Northern and Chi- cago & North Western Rail Line in Campbell-Converse Counties, WyomingTDenver,Colo.:University of Denver,Research Insti- tute, 1974. 3This lower limit makes allowance for other classes of traf- fic and assumes relatively poor track conditions. See Rieber, Michael, and Shao Lee Soo. "Route Specific Cost Comparisons: Unit Trains, Coal Slurry Pipelines and Extra High Voltage Trans- mission," Appendix B in White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: A Progress Report of a Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource Development. Washington"^ D.C. : U.S., Environ- mental Protection Agency,1977. "Desai, Samir, and James Anderson. Rail Transportation Requirements for Coal Movement in 1980. Cambridge,Mass.:Input Output Computer Services Inc., 1976, p. 2-32. 5U.S., Congress, Senate, Committee on Commerce. To Alleviate Freight Car Shortage, Senate Report 92-982 on S. 1729, 92d Cong., 2d sess., 1972. 1081 ------- and the largest single item in operating costs is labor. Approxi- mately 43 railroad workers will be needed to transport each million annual tons of coal over a 1,000 mile route.1 In contrast with railroads, a large portion of the costs of slurry pipelines are front-ended. Estimates of front-end costs for a 25 MMtpy line range from $800 thousand2 to $2 million3 per mile. Interest charges and inflation rates are critical in con- verting these fixed costs into a per-ton equivalent. If a nominal cost of capital of 13 percent per annum must be borne at a time when 7 percent inflation is occurring, t'aen the real cost of capital is approximately 6 percent. If, on the other hand, long term financing commitments are made at 13 percent and inflation subsequently moderates to 4 percent, then the real rate will have risen to approximately 9 percent. Using these two cases as examples of possible real interest rates, adding 2.5 percent to each for insurance and property taxes, and assuming a facility life of 30 years; each million dollars of initial investment would entail an annualized real" cost of from $89,800 to $116,400. Combining these rates with the range of construction cost esti- mates given above, the per ton capital cost (per 1000 miles) could vary from $2.87 to $9.31. As noted, operating costs are rela- tively small in a slurry system. The economic characteristics of pov/er transmission will depend on whether the AC or DC mode is utilized. DC is more stable, has smaller energy losses, and--at any power level-- requires smaller lines, less insulation, and less right-of-way.5 Nevertheless, until recently AC has been used almost exclusively in transmission. The major obstacle to DC has been the cost of terminal conversion facilities. Although these costs are coming down, the major applications of DC will continue to be primarily long distance and single source, such as with remote mine-mouth generating plants. ^reudenthal, David, et al. Coal Development Alternatives. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Wyoming Department of Economic Planning and Development, 1974, Table 2.3. 2Cazalet, Edward, et al. A Western Regional Energy Develop- ment Study: Economics, Final Report, 2 vols. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford Research Institute, 1976. 3Freudenthal, et al. Coal Development Alternatives, p. 34. ''In terms of the currency value prevailing at the time of the initial investment. 5Hingorani, Narain. "The Reemergence of DC in Modern Power Systems." EPRI Journal, Vol. 3 (June 1978), pp. 6-13. 1082 ------- B. Physical Input Requirements Attention has been paid in a number of studies to the require- ments for steel, land, and water which may be consumed or changed in energy transportation. Summary estimates are presented in Table 11-61. Unit trains and slurry pipelines are roughly com- parable in total steel requirements, though the types of steel differ. Each system requires about 380 tons per mile for fixed structures (assuming 25 MMtpy capacity). In addition, railroads have to provide a fleet of locomotives and hopper cars. Some 500 unit trains, each consisting of 4 locomotives and 100 coal carry- ing cars,1 would be needed by the year 2000 in the Nominal case. Approximately 2 million tons of steel would be needed to manufac- ture this fleet. On the other hand, most of the needed track has already been installed, whereas only one major slurry pipe- line is currently in operation. Finally, it should be noted that the steel requirements for electric transmission lines are con- siderably less than for either trains or slurry lines.2 The slurry pipeline water estimates are based on an assump- tion of 740 acre-feet per million tons of coal, approximately a 50-50 mixture by weight. By comparison, the other energy trans- port systems use almost no water. However, transmission of electricity (or other converted energy forms) implies within-region use of water in the conversion process. In the case of electrical generation, about 2600 acre-feet would be needed for each million tons of coal burned, or more than 3 times as much water as would go into an equivalent amount of slurry. 11.6.4 Impacts A. Employment Construction and permanent employment are directly influenced by the distribution of costs between construction and operational categories. As shown in Table 11-59, unit trains have the lowest ratio of construction to operating costs of the transportation systems considered. Correspondingly, there is less of a con- struction boom-bust cycle associated with railroads than with the other systems, especially where roadbeds are already in place. For each MMtpy of capacity, slurry pipelines employ 383 construc- tion workers for two years, railroads employ 44 workers for three !Buck, P., and N. Savage. "Determine Unit-Train Require- ments." Power, Vol. 118 (Jan. 1974), pp. 90-91. 2However, on the order of 65,000 tons of aluminum will be used in electrical transmission. 3Further details on water use can be found in section 11.3 of this chapter. 1083 ------- o o o CN O 8 « K EH in tn g EH W 2 EH tn D O CK H W EH D O PL. CM S en H 2 W « CO EH \|< U >H EH Q H 2 U W EH Q U Q O U H S tf O O ffl < EH m O w QC'W 2 5 CU < to M Hi 3 0 0 * 4-1 XMV' UH 77 O i Pn tJ X. w c -P <; w ty O 1 X! (U 4J 5-1 -" U td tn C O •P 4-1 W ° "s w § •H •H £ o (_^ H s o 12 £ o l_3 < H s o 25 ^. O " 9 2 H S 0 ^ W P O s r- ^ £> CO rH CD ^ CM CO 2 m CM m 0 CM CM m CM 2 rH ro rH O-i c~- in in m U ro rH 0 (-- in 0 £ O -H to to •H S to c fd rH EH U Q fl CD M VH 0) 3 rH U Cn O •rH Q; H rH Cn-H 0) 'O U O 1084 ------- years. In the operational phase, slurries employ 25 permanent workers, railroads 43.l Long distance transmission employs fewer operational workers than either of these, but just as in the case of water use, electric transmission implies within- region energy conversion, hence within-region conversion employ- ment. B. Health and Safety Each transportation mode produces a different array of health impacts, some of which are indicated in Table 11-62. Due to longer experience with trains, the hazards of this mode have been quanti- fied more precisely than for the other modes. It has been calcu- lated, for example, that a flow of 20 unit trains per day over typical routes from the West averaging 1100 miles would cause 3.4 deaths and 14 injuries per year at grade crossings.2 It has also been found that railroads caused 7.4 percent of the wildfire property losses in Nebraska in 1972-1976,3 a figure which may be expected to increase with increasing coal traffic. "Plugging" of slurry lines presents problems unique to this transport system. If a plug (or a break) occurs anywhere along the line, all of the slurry must be dumped or the coal will rapidly settle out. Therefore, a holding pond of 100 acre-feet capacity must be available at each pumping station.4 The dumped slurry cannot be reinjected at these intermediate points, hence must be trucked to the origin or destination or otherwise dis- posed of on-site. Routine disposal of coal fines at the destination presents similar problems. Due to incomplete separation of coal and water, ^reudenthal, David, et al. Coal Development Alternatives. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Wyoming Department of Economic Planning and Development, 1974, Chapter IV. 2Science Applications, Inc. "Environmental Impacts of Coal Slurry Pipelines and Unit Trains," in U.S., Congress, Office of Technology Assessment. Task Reports; Slurry Coal Pipelines, Vol. II, Part 2. Washington, D.C.:Office of Technology Assess- ment, 1978, p. 73. 3 Ibid., p. 74. ^Rieber, Michael, and Shao Lee Soo. "Route Specific Cost Comparisons: Unit Trains, Coal Slurry Pipelines and Extra High Voltage Transmission," Appendix B in White, Irvin L., et al. Energy From the West: A Progress Report of a Technology Assess- ment of Western Energy Resource Development. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977, pp. 79-80. 1085 ------- TABLE 11-62: HEALTH AND SAFETY IMPACTS MODE IMPACTS Railroads Slurry Pipelines High Voltage Electric Oil and Gas Pipelines Trucks Derailments Traffic collisions Fires Line breaks Forced dumping of slurry if pumps fail Disposal of coal fines at receiving end Shock Microsparking Behavioral disorders Explosions Fires Collisions as much as 5.9 percent of the coal may have to be dumped in a sludge pond.* High voltage (greater than 500 kV) electric transmission may cause biological effects which are qualitatively different from those of electricity in more familiar voltage ranges. Behavioral disturbances such as loss of appetite and listlessness have been reported among switchyard workers in isolated cases in the Soviet Union and Spain.2 However, the extent of such impacts and the mechanisms involved have not been established.3 Of course, lower voltages could be used to avoid potential problems, but the advantages of lower construction costs, narrower rights-of-way, and smaller power losses would be lost. Calculated from data in Science Applications, Inc. "Envi- ronmental Impacts of Coal Slurry Pipelines and Unit Trains," in U.S., Congress, Office of Technology Assessment. Task Reports: Slurry Coal Pipelines, Vol. II, Part 2. Washington, D.C.: Office of Technology Assessment, 1978, pp. 44, 50. 2Kornberg, Harry. "Concern Overhead." EPRI Journal, Vol. 2 (June/July 1977), p. 9., 3For a review of the literature, see Miller, Morton, and Gary Kaufman. "High Voltage Overhead." Environment, Vol. 20 (January 1978), pp. 6-15, 32-36. 1086 ------- C. Barriers to Mobility Since they are configured in long, continuous strips, trans- portation corridors tend to restrict the mobility of humans and animals. Animals will probably be most affected by railroads and powerlines, inasmuch as these will often be fenced off for safety reasons. Pipelines, on the other hand, will usually be placed underground. Mobility may be crucial to the survival of some species, especially where seasonal migration is involved. Human mobility will be most disrupted where trains pass through towns. Passage time for a 100-car train traveling at 20 miles per hour is approximately 3 minutes. Under the Nominal case scenario, 43 round trips per day could be expected between the Powder River Basin and the industrial Midwest by the year 2000. To illustrate the possible effects of this level of coal traffic, suppose half of these unit trains (i.e., 22 per day) used a single section of track between these two regions. If this were the case, each crossing along the track would be blocked on the aver- age 9 percent of the time. While it is not possible to accurately predict how much traffic will increase along any particular route, these calculations show that significantly increased train traffic could be very disruptive locally. One detailed study of Colorado traced a rail transportation scenario of about 90 million tons/ year passing along the Front Range in 1985, and estimated the value of traffic delay time at $9.9 million annually in that state. : D. Air Pollution The most significant air quality impact anticipated from energy transportation will arise from the diesel emissions of unit trains. Emissions of particulates, HC, and CO from a rail route handling 65 MMtpy are equivalent to those of the average rural, federal, or state highway, i.e., on the order of 100 vehicles/hour. Sulfur oxide and NOX emissions, however, would resemble more closely the emissions from an urban street. 2 In terms of concentrations, diesel locomotive emissions are not likely, by themselves, to cause ambient air quality standards to be violated.3 :URS Company. Coal Train Assessment, Final Report for Colorado Department of Highways. Denver, Colo.: URS, 1976, Table C-l. 2Science Applications, Inc. "Environmental Impacts of Coal Slurry Pipelines and Unit Trains," in U.S., Congress, Office of Technology Assessment. Task Reports: Slurry Coal Pipelines, Vol. II, Part 2. Washington, D.C.: Office of Technology Assess- ment, 1978. 3Ibid., p. 82. 1087 ------- Highly uncertain is the impact of ozone generated by high voltage transmission lines. Available studies indicate that con- centrations generated by corona discharges on present extra-high voltage (EHV) transmission lines are too low to be deleterious to the environment. : E. Noise Residents along railroad rights-of-way will certainly notice the noise of passing coal trains. As noted above, many western towns were built around the tracks; moreover, short, widely spaced buildings will not block sound transmission effectively. At low levels, noise constitutes primarily an aesthetic detriment; at higher levels it can cause health and behavioral problems. Noise characteristics of unit trains have been determined by calculating the noise radiated and its attenuation for each of the engines and cars, then summing the total for various locations away from the track.2 The noise as a function of time is shown in Figure 11-21 for three observer distances from the tracks: 100 feet, 1,000 feet, and 3,000 feet. The calculations assume that there are few buildings to block or attenuate sound transmission. At 100 feet, the separate contributions of the locomotive and the coal cars will stand out clearly. Engine noise will dominate for about a minute, and the peak value will be more than 100 decibels A-weighted (dBA). This noise level will require shouting to communicate with another person at a distance of 1 foot. (Occupational Safety and Health Administration regulations limit exposure to 100 dBA noise to no more than two hours per day). At 1,000 feet, the noise level will not vary as widely over time, and the separate contributions of engine and coal car noise will not be so clearly defined. The noise level will be above 55 dBA for about 8 minutes. This is the level specified by the EPA as the "outdoor activity interference and annoyance" threshold. At 3,000 feet, the noise level will still be above 55 dBA for about 6 minutes, but the observed peak level will be reduced to 61 dBA. ' JFrydman, M., and C.H. Shih. "Effects of the Environment on Oxidants Production in AC Corona." IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-93 (January/February 1974) , pp. 436-43; and Roach, J.F., V.L. Chartier, and F.M. Dietrich. "Experimental Oxidant Production Rates for EHV Transmission Lines and Theoretical Estimates of Ozone Concentrations Near Operating Lines." IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-93 (March/April 1974), pp. 647-57. 2Swing, Jack W., and Donald B. Pies. Assessment of Noise Environments Around Railroad Operations, Report No. WRC 73-5. El Segundo, Calif.: Wyle Laboratories, 1973. 1088 ------- ffl ------- In order to assess the aggregate effect of a series of noise disturbances over time, the day-night equivalent sound level (Ldn) measure has been developed. This avereiges the noise impacts over time to form a .long-term equivalent sound level, including an ad- justment to account for the greater subjective impact of noise at night compared to daytime.1 Figure 11-22 shows calculated Ldn values at 100 and 1,000 feet from a railroad track as a function of the frequency of trains. If the Ldn value exceeds 65 decibels in a community, widespread complaints about noise can be expected. The graph indicates that 50 trains per day would be required to create such a noise level at a distance of 1,000 feet from the track, but only a few trains per day would be required to generate this noise level within a few hundred Eeet of the tract. Route-specific analysis of the mainline from Colstrip, Montana to Chicago indicates that 1,134,000 people live within one mile on either side of that route. This gives a rough measure of how many people might be impacted by train noise. F. Aesthetics Aside from noise, the major aesthetic impacts of energy trans- portation will probably be experienced visually. The visual evi- dence of human presence in itself may be aesthetically objection- able, especially in primitive areas. The long, straight lines characteristic of transportation corridors can contrast markedly with natural landscapes. Among transportation facilities, trans- mission lines will have the greatest skyline alteration impacts because of their height and hence the long distances from which they can be seen. However, even right-of-way clearings for buried pipelines may produce an objectionable; skyline alteration. Facilities may also be conspicuous without altering the sky- line. Color, design, and location relative to natural features are important variables.2 Facilities designed with these elements in mind can even yield some aesthetic benefits. JSee U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Noise Abatement and Control. Information on Levels of Environmental Noise Requisite to Protect Public Health and Welfare with an Ade- quate Margin of Safety. Arlington, Va.: Environmental Protec- tion Agency, 1974. 2For a description of these aspects with regard to a rail- road line, see U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, et al. Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed Development of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal Basin of Wyoming. Cheyenne, Wyo.: Bureau of Land Management, 1974, Vol. Ill, pp. 11-104 through 11-105. 1090 ------- m c h-i 90 -i 80 - 70 - 40 - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Number of trains/day 90 100 i 50 T I 200 100 150 200 250 Million tons coal/year I 300 350 FIGURE 11-22: DAY-NIGHT AVERAGE SOUND LEVEL (Ldn) AS A FUNCTION OF COAL TRAIN FREQUENCY AND COAL TONNAGE Source: Swing, Jack W., and Donald B. Pies. Assessment of Noise Environments Around Railroad Operations, Report No. WCR 73-5. El Secundo, Calif.: Wyle Laboratories, 1973 1091 ------- GLOSSARY AD VALOREM TAX—A tax imposed at a fixed percentage of the value of a commodity. ALLUVIAL—Associated with materials (sand, gravel, etc.) transported by and laid down by flowing water. ALTERNATING CURRENT (AC)—An electric current that reverses its direction at regularly recurring intervals. AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS—According to the Clean Air Act of 1970, the air quality level which must be met to protect the public health (primary) and welfare (secondary). Secondary standards are more stringent than Primary Ambient Air Quality Standards. AMBIENT STANDARDS—Standards for the conditions in the vicinity of a reference point, usually describing the physical environment (the ambient temperature is the outdoor temperature, and am- bient air refers to the normal air-quality conditions). AMORTIZATION—The gradual reduction of an obligation, such as a mortgage, by periodically paying a part of the principal as well as the interest. AQUIFER—A subsurface zone that yields economically important amounts of water to wells; a water-bearing stratum of permeable rock, sand, or gravel. AQUATIC HABITAT—A type of site in, on, or near water where certain types of plants and/or animals naturally or normally live and grow. AREA COUNCILS OF GOVERNMENT—Regional voluntary intergovernmental organizations. They serve the function of allowing greater cooperation and planning among local governments in solving problems that overlap more than one local jurisdiction. They also serve as a means to direct federal aid to cities. AUGMENTATION—Increasing existing (water) supplies by adding to the quantities naturally available. 1092 ------- AVOIDANCE AREAS—Areas that are not to be utilized as sites for energy conversion facilities unless there are no acceptable alternatives. BACKFILLING—A reclamation technique which returns the spoils to mined cuts or pits. This levels the land in a configuration similar to the original form. BACKGROUND LEVELS--Ambient concentrations of hydrocarbons and par- ticulates from natural sources, e.g., blowing dust. BENEFICIAL USE—A doctrine derived from the appropriation system stipulating that water use must be made in accordance with the public interest of the best utilization of the water resource. BERM--A shelf or wall built to contain spills around a fuel storage tank or to retain other liquids or semisolid materials as in waste stabilization ponds. BEST AVAILABLE CONTROL TECHNOLOGY (BACT) REQUIREMENT—The part of the Clean Air Act which requires that a facility be equipped with the most up-to-date antipollution device. Example—coal- fired power plants equipped with scrubbers. BREEDER REACTOR—A nuclear reactor that produces more fissile mate- rial than it consumes. This reactor is sometimes called the fast breeder because high energy (fast) neutrons produce most of the fissions in current designs. BROWSE—Twigs, shoots, and leaves eaten by livestock and other grazing animals. COMMODITIES CLAUSE—Section of the Interstate Commerce Act of 1887 which prevents railroads from transporting freight which they manufacture, mine, produce, own, or have an interest in. It has not been applied to any other transportation mode. COMMON CARRIER—A transportation company which is licensed to pro- vide its services at nondiscriminatory rates to all shippers who apply. CONSTRUCTION/OPERATION EMPLOYMENT RATIO—The difference between the number of employees needed for the construction phase of a large project and the number needed for operation of the facil- ity. Construction results in large employment increases, while employment declines are experienced during actual operation, resulting in the boom-bust cycle associated with large con- struction projects. The larger the ratio, the greater the employment decline when construction is completed. CONVERSION FACILITY—Plant used to convert energy raw materials into usable energy forms. 1093 ------- CORONA DISCHARGE—A discharge of electricity appearing as a bluish- purple glow on the surface of and adjacent to a conductor when the voltage gradient exceeds a certain critical value; due to ionization of the surrounding air by the high voltage. COST—The value of the best alternative which is foregone when an alternative is chosen. CRITERIA POLLUTANTS—Six pollutants identified prior to passage of the Clean Air Act Amendments which now have established Ambient Air Quality Standards, i.e., sulfur dioxide, particulate matter, carbon monoxide, photochemical oxidants, nonmethane hydrocar- bons, and nitrogen oxides. CRITICAL AREAS—Land in energy development areas in which energy and recreational development should be restricted. DEPLOYMENT—Strategic or wider utilization, in this case of energy resources. DEREGULATION—The act or process of removing restrictions and regu- lations. DESALINATION—Removal of salt, as from water or soil. Also known as desalting. DIRECT CURRENT (DC)—An electric current flowing in one direction only and substantially constant in value. DIVERTING—Turning the course of water from one direction to another. DRY COOLING—A method used for dissipating waste heat whereby water is circulated in a closed system and cooled by air flow similar to a car radiator. EASEMENT—The right held by one person or body to make use of the land of another for limited purposes. ECOSYSTEM—The interacting members of the biological community and physical components that occur in a given area. EFFECTIVENESS—The degree to which objectives are achieved. EFFICIENCY—The degree to which a possible course of action mini- mizes costs and risks while maximizing beneficial impacts. EFFLUENT—Any water flowing out of an enclosure or source to a sur- face water or groundwater flow network. ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION—The large-scale production of electric power for industrial, residential, and rural use, generally in stationary plants designed for the purpose. 1094 ------- ELECTROSTATIC PRECIPITATORS—Devices that use an electric field to remove solid particles or droplets of liquid from plant exhaust stack gases. EMINENT DOMAIN—The right of a government to take private property for public use by virtue of the superior dominion of the sov- ereign power over all lands within its jurisdiction. ENHANCED RECOVERY—The increased recovery from a pool achieved by artificial means or by the application of energy extrinsic to the pool, 'which artificial means or application includes pres- suring, cycling, pressure maintenance or injection to the pool of a substance or form of energy but does not include the in- jection into a well of a substance or form of energy for the sole purpose of (i) aiding in the lifting of fluids in the wells, or (ii) stimulation of the reservoir at or near the well by mechanical, chemical, thermal, or explosive means. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT (EIS)—The National Environmental Policy Act requires that an EIS be filed with any proposed federal action that will affect the environment. The EIS is to contain: a description of the proposed action; the rela- tionship of the action to plans for the affected area; the probable impact (both favorable and adverse); alternatives to the proposed action; unavoidable adverse environmental effects; and the relationship between short-term uses and long-term productivity. EQUITY—A risk interest or ownership right in property. EQUIVALENCY STANDARDS—Proposal to allow farmers and ranchers in arid regions to irrigate more land with water from federal water projects than those in more humid regions. Current stan- dards restrict irrigation to 160 acres or 320 acres if both husband and wife are owners. EVAPORATIVE HOLDING PONDS—Holding areas into which treated water effluents are discharged (rather than into navigable waters), where solid wastes accumulate and create potentially signifi- cant surface and groundwater quality problems. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION—Loss of water from the soil both by evaporation and by transpiration from the plants growing thereon. EXCLUSION AREAS—Areas designated by the federal government where energy development or conversion facilities cannot be sited. FEASIBILITY—The degree to which a possible course of action is ' capable of being accomplished, particularly from a technologi- cal standpoint. 1095 ------- FLUE GAS DESULFURIZATION (FGD)—Removal of sulfur oxide pollutants from stack gas emissions by one of several possible methods. FORB—An herb other than grass. FRONT-ENDED COSTS—Costs which are incurred before or at the begin- ning of a project. 4-R ACT—Railroad Revitilization and Regulatory Reform Act of 1976, Pub. L. 94-201, 90 Stat. 31. GASIFICATION—The conversion of coal or organic waste to a gaseous fuel. GAUSS—The centimeter-gram-second unit of magnetic induction equal to the magnetic flux density that will induce an electromotive force of one one-hundred millionth of a volt in each linear centimeter of a wire moving laterally with a speed of one centimeter per second at right angle to a magnetic flux. GAUSSIAN DISPERSION MODEL—The most commonly occurring probability distributions have the form: (I/a /27r)/u exp (-u2/2)du, u = (x-e)/a — oo where e. is the mean and a is the variance. Also known as Gauss' error curve or Gaussian distribution. A model used to measure or predict the normal distribution of air pollution. GONDOLA CAR—Railroad car for carrying bulk materials such as coal and grain, with an open top and sealed bottom, so that emptying is usually achieved by rotating the car. GROUNDWATER—Subsurface water occupying the saturation zone from which wells and springs are fed; in a strict sense, this term applies only to water below the water table. "HARD ROCK" MINERALS—Solid minerals, as distinguished from oil and gas, especially those solid minerals found in hard rocks. HIGH VOLTAGE TRANSMISSION LINE (HVTL)—An alternative method of coal transportation involving the production of mine-mouth electric power with subsequent transmission of large blocks of power on a point-to-point basis. HIGH WET COOLING—A method used for dissipating waste heat whereby water is circulated between a condenser where it absorbs heat and a tower where the warm water is cooled by evaporation. HOPPER CAR—Railroad car for carrying bulk materials such as coal and grain, with doors on the bottom for emptying. 1096 ------- HORIZONTAL DIVESTITURE—Disposal of a portion of a business which produces products which are somewhat substitutable for other products of the firm, e.g., coal produced by an oil company. HORIZONTAL INTEGRATION—Ownership by one company of competing energy resources—coal, petroleum, uranium, etc. HYDROLOGY—A science dealing with the properties, distribution, and circulation of water on the surface of the land, in the soil and underlying rocks, and in the atmosphere. IMPLEMENTABILITY—(1) The ability to carry out or put into practical effect; (2) the ability to have uniform standards incorporated in legislation and regulations. IMPOUNDMENT—Collection of water for irrigation, flood control, or similar purpose. IN_ SITU—In the natural or original position; applied to energy re- sources when they are processed or converted in the geologic strata where they were originally deposited. INFILTRATION—Permeation of water through the land surface into the groundwater system. INSTREAM FLOW—Water flowing in a stream, typically with reference to a water requirement for fish and other biota. INTERMEDIATE WET COOLING—The use of a mixture of high and mini- mum wet cooling technologies in power plants in order to conserve water resources. Also referred to as wet/dry cooling. INTERMODEL COMPETITION--Competition between companies providing dissimilar modes of transportation, e.g., railroads versus trucks. INTERMODEL UMBRELLA RATES—Protective rates allowed to be changed by companies providing the same mode of transportation. INTRAMODEL COMPETITION—Competition between companies which are providing the same form of transportation, e.g., rail. ISSUES—Impacts, problems, or consequences of energy resource devel- opment which generate conflict among parties-at-interest. ISSUE SYSTEM—Conceptual framework which identifies the issue being considered, the parties involved, the area in which the dis- pute occurs, and the decisionmaking agencies with jurisdiction. 1097 ------- JOINT USE CORRIDOR—A narrow strip of land with restricted bounda- ries in which facilities of the same or different system are placed adjacent to each other in as close proximity as practi- cal and feasible. LEAD TIME—The time needed for planning, financing, and construction of required facilities before they are ready for use. LEGUME—A dry, dehiscent fruit derived from a single simple pistil; common examples are alfalfa, beans, peanuts, and vetch. LIGNITE—The lowest-rank coal, with low heat content, fixed carbon, and high percentages of volatile matter and moisture; early stage in the formation of coal. LINK—A connection between two points, as in a transportation system (rail, pipeline) between a supply center and a demand center. LIQUEFACTION—The conversion of a solid fuel, such as coal or organ- ic waste, into liquid hydrocarbons and related compounds. LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG)—A clean, flammable liquid existing under very cold conditions that is almost pure methane. METHACOAL—A coal slurry using methyl alcohol instead of water. METHYL FUEL—An alkyl radical CH3 fuel derived from methane by re- moval of one hydrogen atom. MILLING—A process in the uranium fuel cycle by which ore containing only 2 percent uranium oxide is converted into a compound called yellowcake which contains 80 to 83 percent uranium oxide. MINE DEWATERING—Pumping unwanted groundwater from a mine in order to achieve adequate mining conditions. MINE-MOUTH SITING—Location of a facility in the vicinity or area of a mine, usually within several miles. MINIMUM WET COOLING—A method used for dissipating waste heat whereby water is circulated in a closed system and cooled by air flow similar to a car radiator. Also known as dry cooling. MIXING AND DILUTION—The dispersion of pollutants into the atmo- sphere resulting in a reduction in the level of concentration. MOBILE SOURCES—Nonstationary sources of air pollution such as auto- mobiles, trucks and buses; as defined by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977. 1098 ------- NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS—Pollution standards esta- blished by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 requiring a 90-percent reduction of automotive hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions from 1970 levels by the 1975 model year and a 90-percent reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions from 1971 levels by the 1976 model year. NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS—Standards set for new industries to ensure that ambient standards are met and to limit the amount of a given pollutant a stationary source may emit over a given time. "New" in this context applies to facilities built since August 17, 1971. NOMINAL CASE—One of the three levels of energy development used to make projections based on the energy model developed for Gulf Oil Corporation by Stanford Research Institute. NONATTAINMENT AREAS—(1) Areas, typically urban with heavy automobile-related pollutants, in which "all available mea- sures" will not attain ambient air quality standards by 1982. States must submit new implementation plans and must reduce emissions in the area each year to ensure that the ambient standard is attained by 1987; (2) areas where national air quality standards have not been met. NONMETHANE HYDROCARBONS—An organic compound (as acetylene or ben- zene) containing only carbon and hydrogen and often occurring in petroleum, natural gas, and coal, other than the colorless, odorless, flammable, gaseous hydrocarbon CHi+. NONPOINT SOURCES OF POLLUTION—Areawide water wastes, essentially those which are transported to surface and groundwaters from sources other than pipes and ditches. These include pesticides, fertilizers, sediments, natural salts, animal wastes, plant residues, and minerals. OMB A-95 REVIEW PROCESS—Requirement that states provide the oppor- tunity for governors and local officials to comment on appli- cation for federal funds to undertake a variety of catagorical programs, and that agencies of the federal government consider the comments of the general public in approving specific appli- cations for funds. OCEAN THERMAL GRADIENTS—Differences in temperature of the ocean water at various depths. OFF-ROAD VEHICLES—Motor vehicles such as motorcycles, snowmobiles, and four-wheel drive vehicles that can operate over natural terrain without the need for roads. 1099 ------- OFFSET PLAN—EPA policy which permits new facilities to be sited in nonattainment areas where concentrations of criteria pol- lutants exceed air quality standards. ONE-STOP SITING—Centralized decisionmaking alternative where one commission would handle all siting decisions and seek input from all concerned parties. ORGANIZATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES (OPEC)—A group of nations controlling over 75 percent of free-world petroleum reserves; includes Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, and others. OXIDES OF NITROGEN—A class of air pollutants which includes several forms of the compound (NO, N02, N03 as well as others). Oxides of nitrogen are produced during combustion and constitute some of the reactants involved in the formation of photochemical smog. OXIDES OF SULFUR—A class of air pollutants which includes several forms of the compound (S02 and S03). OZONE--An oxidant formed in atmospheric photochemical reactions. PARTICULATES—Microscopic solids that emanate from a range of sources and are widespread air pollutants. Those between 1 and 10 mi- crons in size are most numerous in the atmosphere; they stem from mechanical processes and include industrial dusts, ash, etc. PARTIES-AT-INTEREST—Individuals, groups, or organizations (such as local residents, Indian tribes, industry, labor, or various levels of government) whose interests or values are likely to be affected by the development of western energy resources. PEAK GROUND LEVEL CONCENTRATION—The highest air pollutant density measured or predicted that is a result of human activity on the ground, e.g., automobile use. Always cited with respect to an averaging time. PERCOLATION—Downward movement of water through soils. PHOTOCHEMICAL OXIDANTS—Any of the chemicals which enter into oxi- dation reactions in the presence of light or other radiant energy. PHREATOPHYTE—A deep-rooted plant that obtains its water from the water table or the layer of soil just above it. These plants are characteristically nonproductive vegetation, such as salt- cedar, growing in stream beds, ditch canals, etc. which con- sume large quantities of water. 1100 ------- PLANNING CORRIDOR—A broad linear strip of land of variable width reserved between two geographic points which has ecological, technical, and/or economic advantages over adjacent areas for the location of transportation and/or utility systems. PLUME IMPACTION—The point of contact between stack emissions and elevated terrain that results in high pollution concentration levels at that point. POINT SOURCES OF POLLUTION—Those sources of water pollution which are discrete conveyances (pipes, channels, etc.) and are con- trolled by the effluent standards of the Federal Water Pollu- tion Control Act Amendments of 1972. These include effluents from municipal sewage systems, storm water runoff, industrial wastes, and animal wastes from commercial feedlots. POND LINER—The bottom of a pond, typically a specially prepared layer of clay, less permeable solids, or manmade materials. POPULATION/EMPLOYMENT MULTIPLIER—A numerical multiplier applied to the number of workers needed to construct or operate a new facility that is used to project total population levels or increases. POWER POOLING—The transfer of electricity among utilities in re- gional electrical service. PREVENTION OF SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION (PSD)—Pollution standards that have been set to protect air quality in regions that are already cleaner than the Ambient Air Quality Standards. Areas are divided into three categories determining the degree to which deterioration in the area will be allowed. PRIME FARMLANDS—Land defined by the Agriculture Department's Soil Conservation Service based on soil quality, growing season, and moisture supply needed to produce sustained high crop yields using modern farm methods. PRIMITIVE AREAS—Scenic and wild areas in the national forests that were set aside and preserved from timber cutting, mineral operations, etc., from 1930-1939 by act of Congress; these areas can be added to the National Wilderness Preservation System established in 1964. PROBLEMS AND ISSUES—The two terms are not synonyms. The term "problems" is used when conflict among competing interests and values is not involved or is not being emphasized, "issues" when it is. 1101 ------- PROJECT FINANCING—Lending which is predicated more on the cash- generation capacity of a specific project than on the general credit-worthiness of the developer. Usually also involves long-term sales contracts and specific obligations with respect to completion and operation of the project. PROJECT INDEPENDENCE—A program initiated in March 1974 designed to improve the energy position of the United States and perhaps to gain independence from foreign energy sources by 1985. PUBLIC DOMAIN—Original public lands which have never left federal ownership; also, lands in federal ownership which were obtained by the government in exchange for public lands or for timber on such lands; also, original public domain lands which have reverted to federal ownership through operation of the public land laws. RECLAMATION—Restoring mined land to productive use; includes re- placement of topsoil, restoration of surface topography, waste disposal, and fertilization and revegetation. REGRADING—The movement of earth over a depression to change the shape of the land surface; a finer form of backfilling. RESERVES—Resources of known location, quantity, and quality which are economically recoverable using currently available tech- nologies. RESOURCES—Mineral or ore estimates that include reserves, identified deposits that cannot presently be extracted due to economical or technological reasons, and other deposits that have not been discovered but whose existence is inferred. RETORTING—The decomposition within a closed heating facility (re- tort) of the solid hydrocarbon kerogen in oil shale to produce a variety of gases and a liquid hydrocarbon which can be up- graded to produce a synthetic crude oil. RIGHT-OF-WAY—The legal right for use, occupancy, or access across land or water areas for a specified purpose or purposes, such as the construction of gas or oil pipelines. Such use on federal land is authorized by permit, lease, easement, or li- cense. On patented lands, it is acquired by easement or pur- chase . ROLLING STOCK—Railroad cars. RUSSIAN THISTLE—A prickly European herb (Salsola kali tenuifolia) that is a serious pest in North America; also called Russian tumbleweed. SALVAGED WATER—Water saved from current use which can be applied to another use. 1102 ------- SCIENCE COURT—A proposed "court" of scientific experts who will identify the significant science and technology questions re- lated to public policy decisions, conduct adversary proceedings over the issues, and issue a judgment pertaining to the disputed technical questions. SEAM--A bed of coal or other valuable mineral of any thickness. SEEP--A spot where fluid (as water, oil, or gas) contained in the ground oozes slowly to the surface and often forms a pool. SEDIMENTATION--The action or process of forming or depositing sedi- ment (material deposited by water, wind, or glaciers). 701 PROGRAM—A federal program to provide financial assistance to local governments for county-wide land-use programs. SEVERANCE TAX—A tax on the removal of minerals from the ground, usually levied as so many cents per barrel of oil or per thou- sand cubic feet of gas. The tax is sometimes levied as a per- centage of the gross value of the minerals removed. SITE SCREENING—A method which eliminates areas as possible sites for energy facilities on the basis of several criteria. Each stage of the process eliminates those locations that are un- acceptable for a particular criterion. When all the unaccept- able locations for each criterion are identified, the remaining sites are theoretically favorable for all criteria. SLURRY PIPELINE—A pipeline through which coal (in the form of a mixture of water and coal) is transported. SNOWPACK—The amount of annual accumulation of snow at higher eleva- tions in the western United States, usually expressed in terms of average water equivalent. SOFT MINERALS—Minerals such as oil and gas. SOIL PERMEABILITY—The ability of an area of land to conduct fluids. SOLUTIONAL MINING—The extraction of soluble minerals from subsur- face strata by injection of fluids and the controlled removal of mineral-laden solutions. SPENT SHALE—The material remaining after the kerogen is removed from oil shale by retorting. Its volume is greater than that ? of the original oil shale. SPOIL PROPERTIES—Physical and chemical characteristics of refuse resulting from mining and processing operations, e.g., coal mining operations. 1103 ------- STAKEHOLDERS—Individuals who have a vested interest in decisions affecting development of western energy resources. STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (SIP)—Required by the Clean Air Act of 1970, SIP's outline state procedures for enforcing national ambient air standards and for monitoring the performance of local programs. STRIP AND SHIP SITING—Determining the transport corridor through which it is possible to ship coal as coal instead of converted energy forms. STRIP MINING—A mining method that entails the complete removal of all material from over the resource to be mined in a series of rows or strips; also referred to as surface mining. STRIPPABLE RESERVES—Resources of known location, quantity, and quality, which are economically recoverable using currently available stripmining techniques. SUBSIDENCE—The sinking, descending, or lowering of the land surface; the surface depression over an underground mine that has been created by subsurface caving. SULFATES—A class of secondary pollutants that includes acid-sulfates and neutral metallic sulfates. SULFUR DIOXIDE (S02) SCRUBBERS—Equipment, used to remove sulfur di- oxide pollutants from stack gas emissions, usually by means of a liquid sorbent. SURFACE MINING—Mining method whereby the overlying materials are removed to expose the mineral for extraction. SYNTHETIC FUELS—Artificially produced fuels. SYNTHETIC NATURAL GAS (SNG)—Gas produced from a fossil fuel such as coal, oil shale, or organic material and having a heat con- tent of about 1,000 Btu's per cubic foot. TECHNOLOGICAL FIX--The application of technology to resolve social problems rather than seeking resolutions through behavioral or attitudinal change. TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT—An examination (generally based on previously completed research rather than initiating new primary research) of the second and higher order consequences of technological innovation. TA attempts to balance these consequences against first-order benefits by identifying and analyzing alternative policies and implementation strategies so that the process of coping with scientific invention can occur in conjunction with, rather than after such invention. 1104 ------- THERMAL DISCHARGE—High temperature point source water pollutants that could prove hazardous to indigenous shellfish, fish, and wildlife in and on the body of water into which the discharge is made. THROUGHPUT—The volume of feedstock charged to a process equipment unit during a specified time; the quantity of ore or other material passed through a mill or a section of a mill in a given time or at a given rate. TRACE ELEMENT—A nonessential element found in small quantities (usually less than 1.0%) in a mineral. Also known as accessory element; quest element. "208" PROGRAM—Federal Water Grant Program to make funds available to local jurisdictions for waste treatment facilities. UNIT TRAIN—A system for delivering coal in which a string of cars, with distinctive markings and loaded to full visible capacity, is operated without service frills or stops along the way for cars to be cut in and out. URANIUM TAILINGS—Uranium refuse material separated as residue in the preparation of various products such as ores. VARIANCE POLICY—The procedure whereby a facility may receive a variance from the sul'fur dioxide limits allowed for Class I areas whose air quality is cleaner than the Ambient Air Quality Standards. VERTICAL INTEGRATION—Participation by one company in more than one level of an energy resource system; such participation may range from exploration for a resource through the distribution of the resource to consumers. VOLATILE MATTER—Matter that can easily be vaporized at relatively low temperatures or exploded. WATER INTENSIVE FORAGE CROPS—Crops such as alfalfa which consume relatively large quantities of water through evapotranspiration. WATERSHED—Total land area above a given point on a stream or water- way that contributes runoff to that point. WILDERNESS AREAS—Federal lands placed under the National Wilderness Preservation System by the Wilderness Act of 1964. Subject to existing uses and rights, commercial enterprises, permanent roads, buildings, motorboats, airplanes, etc., are forbidden in any land designated as part of the wilderness system. 1105 ------- WINDFALL PROFITS—Profits which occur because of a one-time, unex- pected event, e.g., profits in the coal industry occasioned by a sudden increase in the price of oil. \ YELLOWCAKE—The product of the milling process in uranium fuel cycle, It contains 80 to 83 percent uranium oxide (U308). ZERO DISCHARGE—A goal of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972 to eliminate all point-source pollution of navigable water by 1985. 1106 16506 U.S. GOVEMWENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1979 0-281-147/46 ------- ------- O I r- W ANDARDSb tf> re t/5 B ONCENTRATI U Q Hi AMBIENT § U Cu E- E A t a CLASS II CLASS I WYOMING SECONDARY PRIMARY W EH EH )J \|J (H U u z H S D EH S &4 PLANT TYPICAL BACKGROUND AVERAGING TIME CTI r o I-H CM r-H m CN t?\ «H in mo rs in in r-l CN O O O O O O O \£) if) M3 \D O O \O i— H fs] m r-t r-l r-l O O 0 0 O \£> ifi o O \£> rH m fH rH rH in o o in o o t— >^ CO \X) O >* CN ro rH i— i rH LA -V f- O-> ^ o o o rH in CM in r- \£> O ^ m rH CTi k£> O ro o 0 rH iH in CN r- & f O V£> ro iH (^ ^T o ro o o i— i i-l in CN CO (Jl rH mm ro (N O in c S oo r- -=r £ rH rH C C 3 a 4-1 a it n rHrHS rH3H rH ^ 310O C003 10 3 U3J5 3XIO 3 O •H c i c i x; c x: JJ C T C rr 1 u c 1 M C 01 •H rH E JJ C C 3 rO O rH r-l p_l tjl Ul O CO CO tnXl Oi g C r-i CO 0) x: JJ jj > C JJ >1 f-l tn O x: rH tn 10 U 1H x: JJ tn 01 0) _r^ JJ JJ tn E O) 0 jq . 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                                          600779082B

Energy From the West
Impact Analysis Report
   Volume 11:
   Site-Specific and  Regional
    Impact Analyses
By
Science and Public Policy Program
University of Oklahoma

IrvinL. White         Edward B. Rappaport
Michael A. Chartock    Frank J. Calzonetti
R. Leon Leonard       Mark S. Eckert
Steven C. Ballard      Timothy A. Hall
Martha W. Gilliland     Gary D. Miller
Edward J. Malecki      Michael D. Devine
      Managers, Impact Analysis Report
  R. Leon Leonard, Science and Public Policy
          University of Oklahoma
 Martha W. Gilliland, Energy Policy Studies, Inc.
C. Patrick Bartosh     James L. Machin
B. Russ Eppright      Dennis D. Harner
Thomas W. Grimshaw   David Cabe
Milton Owen         SamA.Gavande
KenChoffel          W.F.Holland
Timothy J. Wolterink   Carl-Heinz Michelis
Jim Sherman         Michael W. Hooper

Prepared for:
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency


Project Officer:
Steven E. Plotkin
Office of Energy, Minerals and Industry

-------
                            DISCLAIMER
     This report has been reviewed by the Office of Energy,
Minerals and Industry, U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, and
approved for publication.  Approval does not signify that the
contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, now does mention of trade names
or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation
for use.

-------
                           FORWARD

     The production of electricity and fossil fuels inevitably
impacts Man and his environment.  The nature of these impacts
must be thoroughly understood if balanced judgements concerning
future energy development in the United States are to be made.
The Office of Energy, Minerals and Industry  (OEMI), in its role
as coordinator of the Federal Energy/Environment Research and
Development Program, is responsible for producing the informa-
tion on health and ecological effects - and methods for miti-
gating the adverse effects - that is critical to developing the
Nation's environmental and energy policy.  OEMI's Integrated
Assessment Program combines the results of research projects
within the Energy/Environment Program with research on the
socioeconomic and political/institutional aspects of energy
development, and conducts policy - oriented studies to identify
the tradeoffs among alternative energy technologies, development
patterns, and impact mitigation measures.

     The Integrated Assessment Program has supported several
"technology assessments" in fulfilling its mission.  Assess-
ments have been supported which explore the impact of future
energy development on both a nationwide and a regional scale.
Current assessments include national assessments of future
development of the electric utility industry and of advanced
coal technologies  (such as fluidized bed combustion).  Also,
the Program is conducting assessments concerned with multiple-
resource development in two "energy resource areas":

                    o  Western coal states
                    o  Lower Ohio River Basin

     This report, which describes the impacts likely to be
experienced when six energy resources are developed in eight
western states, is one of three major reports produced by the
"Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource Development"
study.   (The other two reports describe the technologies likely
to be used and analyze policy problems and issues that can
be expected to arise.)  The report is divided into two volumes.
The first or summary volume introduces the study, describes the
development alternatives which were assessed and summarizes the
results of the impact analyses which were conducted.  The second
volume reports the detailed results of both site-specific and
                             111

-------
regional impact analyses.  The report has been designed to be
useful to laypersons as well as persons who have a professional
interest in energy resource development.  And results are pre-
sented in a way which make this report a useful planning hand-
book for both professional planners and interested citizens.

     We would like to receive your comments concerning this
report. 'Such comments will help us to improve the usefulness of
the products produced by our Integrated Assessment Program.
                              ^
                              Steven R. Rezne(K
                              Acting Deputy Assistant
                                Administrator for Energy,
                                Minerals and Industry
                              IV

-------
                        PREFACE
     This Impact Analysis Report has been prepared as part
of "A Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource
Development" being conducted by an interdisciplinary research
team from the Science and Public Policy Program (S&PP) of
the University of Oklahoma for the Office of Energy, Minerals
and Industry (OEMI), Office of Research and Development (ORD),
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).  This study is
one of several conducted under the Integrated Assessment
Program established by OEMI in 1975.  Recommended by an
interagency task force, the purpose of the Program is to
identify economically, environmentally, and socially accepta-
ble energy development alternatives.  The overall purposes
of this particular study were to identify and analyze a
broad range of consequences of energy resource development
in the western U.S. and to evaluate and compare alternative
courses of action for dealing with the problems and issues
either raised or likely to be raised by development of these
resources.

     The Project Director was Irvin L.(Jack) White, Assistant
Director of S&PP and Professor of Political Science, at the
University of Oklahoma.  White is now Special Assistant to
Dr. Stephen J.  Gage, EPA's Assistant Administrator for
Research and Development.  Michael D. Devine, now Project
Director, supervised the final stages of producing this
report.

     R. Leon Leonard and Martha W. Gilliland have had pri-
mary management responsibility for producing this report.
Leonard, now a Senior Scientist with the Radian Corporation
in Austin, Texas, was a Co-Director of the research team,
Associate Professor of Aeronautical, Mechanical, and Nuclear
Engineering and a Research Fellow in S&PP while the study
was being conducted.  Gilliland is Executive Director of
Energy Policy Studies, Inc., El Paso, Texas.

     Steven E.  Plotkin, now with the Office of Technology
Assessment, was the EPA Project Officer.
                            v

-------
     Other S&PP team members are:  Michael A. Chartock, a
Co-Director of the research team and Associate Professor of
Ecology; Steven C. Ballard, Assistant Professor of Political
Science; Edward J. Malecki, Assistant Professor of Geography;
Edward B. Rappaport, Visiting Assistant Professor of Geogra-
phy; Frank J. Calzonetti, Research Associate in S&PP; Timothy
A. Hall, Research Associate in S&PP; Gary D. Miller, Graduate
Research Assistant  (Civil Engineering and Environmental
Science); Mark S. Eckert, Graduate Research Assistant  (Geogra-
phy) ;  Dipak Kumar Sinha, Graduate Research Assistant (Aeronau-
tical, Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering); and Michael E.
Vanderpool, Graduate Research Assistant (Aeronautical,
Mechanical, and Nuclear Engineering).  Professors Ballard,
Devine, Malecki, and Rappaport are also Research Fellows in
S&PP.

     Radian Corporation, Austin, Texas, has been a major
contributor to this impact analysis report.  C. Patrick
Bartosh, Program Manager, has directed the Radian effort.
Radian Personnel who contributed to the study are:  B.  Russ
Eppright, Thomas W. Grimshaw, Milton Owen, Ken Choffel,
Timothy J. Wolterink, Jim Sherman, James L. Machin, Dennis
D. Harver, David Cabe, Sam A. Gavande, W.F. Holland, Carl
Heinz Michelis, and Michael W. Hooper.

     Water Purification Associates, Cambridge, Massachusetts,
conducted a study of water requirements for steam-electric
power generation and synthetic fuel plants; and the Center
for Advanced Computation, the University of Illinois at
Urbana-Champaign conducted a study of route specific costs
comparisons of alternative transportation modes.  Results of
both studies have contributed to this report.

     Several persons no longer with S&PP or Radian partici-
pated in the early  stages of the research upon which this
report is based.  Three are now in graduate school at other
universities:  Gary N. Bloyd at Carnegie-Mellon University,
Lori L. Serbin at Ohio University, and Patrick Kangas at the
University of Florida.  Gerald M. Clancy, William D. Conine
and E. Douglas Sethness, Jr., have moved from Radian to
other corporate positions.
                          VI

-------
                             ABSTRACT


     This is the final impact analysis report of a three-year tech-
nology assessment of the development of six energy resources (coal,
geothermal, natural gas, oil, oil shale, and uranium) in eight west-
ern states (Arizona, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota,
South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming) during the period from the present to
the year 2000.  Volume I describes the purpose of the study and sum-
marizes the results and conclusions of the analysis.  In Volume II,
more detailed analytical results are presented.  Six chapters report
on the analysis of site-specific impacts of deploying typical energy
resource development technologies at sites representative of the
kinds of conditions likely to be encountered in the eight-state
study area.  A seventh chapter of Volume II identifies localized
impacts, which do not differ significantly from site to site.  A
last chapter focuses on regional impacts likely to occur across the
eight states if energy resources are developed at two different
levels from the present to the year 2000.   In addition to these two
volumes of the Impact Analysis Report, the Policy Analysis Report
and the Energy Resource Development Systems Report are published
separately.
                                Vll

-------
                      OVERALL TABLE OF CONTENTS

                                 FOR

           ENERGY  FROM THE WEST:  IMPACT ANALYSIS  REPORT


                              VOLUME I

                                                               Page
Foreword
Preface
Abstract
List of Figures
List of Tables
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations                             xv-i
Conversion Table                                                x-cx
Acknowledgements                                                 xx
PART I:  INTRODUCTION                                             1

CHAPTER 1:  AN  INTRODUCTION TO WESTERN ENERGY RESOURCE
            DEVELOPMENT                                          2

CHAPTER 2:  STRUCTURE  OF THE STUDY                              15

CHAPTER 3:  THE IMPACTS OF WESTERN ENERGY RESOURCE
            DEVELOPMENT:  SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS               41
                             VOLUME  II
PART II:  SITE-SPECIFIC AND REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS           160

CHAPTER 4:  THE  IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
            AT THE  KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE AREA                  169

CHAPTER 5:  THE  IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
            AT THE  NAVAJO/FARMINGTON AREA                      268

CHAPTER 6:  THE  IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENTS
            AT THE  RIFLE AREA                                  383
                            Vlli

-------
Table of Contents  (Continued)

CHAPTER 7:  THE  IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE  DEVELOPMENT
            AT THE  GILLETTE AREA

CHAPTER 8:  THE  IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE  DEVELOPMENT
            AT THE  COLSTRIP AREA

CHAPTER 9:  THE  IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE  DEVELOPMENT
            AT THE  BEULAH AREA
CHAPTER 10

CHAPTER 11

GLOSSARY
LOCALIZED  IMPACTS

REGIONAL IMPACTS
 491


 612


 722

 822

 914

1092
                              IX

-------
                         TABLE OF CONTENTS

                             VOLUME  II

            SITE-SPECIFIC AND REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

                                                             Page
Foreword
Abstract
List of Figures
List of Tables                                                  xu

PART II:  SITE-SPECIFIC AND REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS           160
I I.I  INTRODUCTION                                             160
I I. 2  IMPACT ANALYSIS METHODS                                  160
II. 2.1  Air Impact Analysis                                    160
II. 2. 2  Water Impact Analysis                                  162
II. 2. 3  Social and Economic Analysis                           165
II. 2. 4  Ecological Methodology                                 167
II. 3  INTERACTIONS AMONG CATEGORIES OF IMPACTS                 168

CHAPTER 4:  THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
            AT THE KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE AREA                  169

4.1  INTRODUCTION                                              169
4. 2  AIR IMPACTS                                               174
4.2.1  Existing Conditions                                     174
4.2.2  Factors Producing Impacts                               177
4.2.3  Impacts                                                 179
4.2.4  Summary of Air Impacts                                  192
4.3  WATER IMPACTS                                             193
4.3.1  Introduction                                            193
4.3.2  Existing Conditions                                     193
4.3.3  Factors Producing Impacts                               200
4.3.4  Impacts                                                 205
4.3.5  Summary of Water Impacts                                212
4.4  SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS                               214
4.4.1  Introduction                                            214
4.4.2  Existing Conditions                                     214
4.4.3  Factors Producing Impacts                               217
4.4.4  Impacts                                                 219
4.4.5  Summary of Social and Economic Impacts                  247
4.5  ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS                                        248
4.5.1  Introduction                                            248

-------
Table of Contents (Continued)                                Page

4.5.2  Existing Biological Conditions                         248
4.5.3  Factors Producing Impacts                              249
4.5.4  Impacts                                                251
4.5.5  Summary of Ecological Impacts                          261
4.6  OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE      264

CHAPTER 5:   THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
            AT THE NAVAJO/FARMINGTON AREA                     2-68

5.1  INTRODUCTION                                             268
5.2  AIR IMPACTS                                              273
5.2.1  Existing Conditions                                    273
5.2.2  Factors Producing Impacts                              276
5.2.3  Impacts                                                280
5.2.4  Summary of Air Impacts                                 295
5.3  WATER IMPACTS                                            296
5.3.1  Introduction                                           296
5.3.2  Existing Conditions                                    296
5.3.3  Factors Producing Impacts                              302
5.3.4  Impacts                                                309
5.3.5  Summary of Water Impacts                               318
5.4  SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS                              320
5.4.1  Introduction                                           320
5.4.2  Existing Conditions                                    320
5.4.3  Factors Producing Impacts                              325
5.4.4  Impacts                                                332
5.4.5  Summary of Social and Economic Impacts                 355
5.5  ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS                                       356
5.5.1  Introduction                                           356
5.5.2  Existing Biological Conditions                         357
5.5.3  Factors Producing Impacts                              360
5.5.4  Impacts                                                362
5.5.5  Summary of Ecological Impacts                          373
5.6  OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT NAVAJO/FARMINGTON          379

CHAPTER 6:   THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
            AT THE RIFLE AREA                                 383

6.1  INTRODUCTION                                             383
6.2  AIR IMPACTS                                              389
6.2.1  Existing Conditions                                    389
6.2.2  Factors Producing Impacts                              390
6.2.3  Impacts                                                393
6.2.4  Summary of Air Impacts                                 411
6.3  WATER IMPACTS                                            412
6.3.1  Introduction                                           412
6.3.2  Existing Conditions                                    412
6.3.3  Factors Producing Impacts                              416
6.3.4  Impacts                                                424
6.3.5  Summary of Water Impacts                               435
                                xi

-------
Table of Contents (Continued)                                Page

6.4  SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS                              437
6.4.1  Introduction                                           437
6.4.2  Existing Conditions                                    437
6.4.3  Factors Producing Impacts                              441
6.4.4  Impacts                                                445
6.4.5  Summary of Social and Economic Impacts                 469
6.5  ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS                                       471
6.5.1  Introduction                                           471
6.5.2  Existing Biological Conditions                         471
6.5.3  Factors Producing Impacts                              473
6.5.4  Impacts                                                473
6.5.5  Summary of Ecological Impacts                          485
6.6  OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS FOR THE RIFLE SCENARIO        487

CHAPTER 7:   THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
            AT THE GILLETTE AREA                              491

7.1  INTRODUCTION                                             491
7.2  AIR IMPACTS                                              497
7.2.1  Existing Conditions                                    497
7.2.2  Factors Producing Impacts                              499
7.2.3  Impacts                                                503
7.2.4  Summary of Air Impacts                                 520
7.3  WATER IMPACTS                                            522
7.3.1  Introduction                                           522
7.3.2  Existing Conditions                                    522
7.3.3  Factors Producing Impacts                              525
7.3.4  Impacts                                                538
7.3.5  Summary of Water Impacts                               546
7.4  SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS                              548
7.4.1  Introduction                                           548
7.4.2  Existing Conditions                                    549
7.4.3  Factors Producing Impacts                              551
7.4.4  Impacts                                                558
7.4.5  Summary of Social and Economic Impacts                 584
7.5  ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS                                       586
7.5.1  Introduction                                           586
7.5.2  Existing Biological Conditions                         587
7.5.3  Factors Producing Impacts                              589
7.5.4  Impacts                                                591
7.5.5  Summary of Ecological Impacts                          602
7.6  OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT GILLETTE                   608

CHAPTER 8:   THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
            AT THE COLSTRIP AREA                              612

8.1  INTRODUCTION                                             612
8.2  AIR IMPACTS                                              617
8.2.1  Existing Conditions                                    617

                                xii

-------
Table of Contents (Continued)                                Page

8.2.2  Factors Producing Impacts                              618
8.2.3  Impacts                                                621
8.2.4  Summary of Air Impacts                                 633
8.3  WATER IMPACTS                                            634
8.3.1  Introduction                                           634
8.3.2  Existing Conditions                                    634
8.3.3  Factors Producing Impacts                              639
8.3.4  Impacts                                                649
8.3.5  Summary of Water Impacts                               657
8.4  SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS                              658
8.4.1  Introduction                                           658
8.4.2  Existing Conditions                                    658
8.4.3  Factors Producing Impacts                              661
8.4.4  Impacts                                                667
8.4.5  Summary of Social and Economic Impacts                 696
8.5  ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS                                       698
8.5.1  Introduction                                           698
8.5.2  Existing Biological Conditions                         698
8.5.3  Factors Producing Impacts                              700
8.5.4  Impacts                                                702
8.5.5  Summary of Ecological Impacts                          713
8.6  OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT COLSTRIP                   719

CHAPTER 9:   THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
            AT THE BEULAH AREA                                722

9.1  INTRODUCTION                                             722
9.2  AIR IMPACTS                                              726
9.2.1  Existing Conditions                                    726
9.2.2  Factors Producing Impacts                              728
9.2.3  Impacts                                                730
9.2.4  Summary of Air Impacts                                 743
9.3  WATER IMPACTS                                            744
9.3.1  Introduction                                           744
9.3.2  Existing Conditions                                    744
9.3.3  Factors Producing Impacts                              751
9.3.4  Impacts                                                758
9.3.5  Summary of Water Impacts                               766
9.4  SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS                              768
9.4.1  Introduction                                           768
9.4.2  Existing Conditions                                    768
9.4.3  Factors Producing Impacts                              772
9.4.4  Impacts                                                776
9.4.5  Summary of Social and Economic Impacts                 798
9.5  ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS        \                               799
9.5.1  Introduction                                           799
9.5.2  Existing Biological Conditions                         800
9.5.3  Factors Producing Impacts                              802
9.5.4  Impacts                                                803


                                 xiii

-------
Table of Contents (Continued)                                Page

9.5.5  Summary of Ecological Impacts                          814
9.6  OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT BEULAH                     817

CHAPTER 10:  LOCALIZED IMPACTS                                822

10.1  INTRODUCTION                                            822
10.2  AIR IMPACTS                                             822
10.2.1  Sulfates                                              822
10.2.2  Oxidants                                              825
10.2.3  Fine Particulates                                     827
10.2.4  Long-Range Visibility                                 828
10.2.5  Plume Opacity                                         830
10.2.6  Cooling Tower Salt Deposition                         832
10.2.7  Cooling Tower Fogging and Icing                       834
10.2.8  Fugitive Dust                                         835
10.2.9  Startup and Shutdown                                  835
10.2.10  Air Impacts of Geothermal Development                836
10.3  TRACE ELEMENTS                                          836
10.4  SOLID WASTE TREATMENT AND DISPOSAL                      841
10.4.1  Application of Holding Ponds                          841
10.4.2  Effects of Ponds or Landfills on Groundwater          844
10.5  NOISE IMPACTS                                           848
10.5.1  Introduction                                          848
10.5.2  Criteria for Noise Impacts                            849
10.5.3  Surface Strip Mining                                  852
10.5.4  Plant Construction                                    852
10.5.5  Plant Operation                                       856
10.6  AESTHETIC IMPACTS                                       858
10.6.1  Introduction                                          858
10.6.2  Land                                                  858
10.6.3  Air                                                   861
10.6.4  Noise                                                 861
10.6.5  Water                                                 862
10.6.6  Biota                                                 862
10.6.7  Man-Made Objects                                      862
10.7  PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACTS                                   863
10.7.1  Introduction                                          863
10.7.2  Residuals from Energy Development                     864
10.7.3  Respiratory Problems                                  867
10.7.4  Cancer                                                876
10.7.5  Systemic Illness                                      885
10.7.6  Population-Related Health Problems                    889
10.8  IMPACTS ON OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH AND SAFETY               893
10.8.1  Introduction                                          893
10.8.2  Summary of Safety Risks                               894
10.8.3  Coal Development                                      894
10.8.4  Crude Oil and Natural Gas Development                 903
10.8.5  Geothermal Resource Development                       904
10.8.6  Oil Shale Development                                 907

                                 xiv

-------
Table of Contents (Continued)                                Page

10.8.7  Uranium Development                                   910
10.8.7  Summary of Occupational Health and Safety             913

CHAPTER 11:  REGIONAL IMPACTS                                 914

11.1  INTRODUCTION                                            914
11.1.1  Location of Development                               914
11.1.2  Levels of Development                                 917
11.1.3  Development Options                                   925
11.2  AIR IMPACTS                                             928
11.2.1  Introduction                                          928
11.2.2  Existing Conditions                                   928
11.2.3  Emissions                                             931
11.2.4  Inadvertent Weather Modification                      943
11.3  WATER IMPACTS                                           951
11.3.1  Introduction                                          951
11.3.2  Impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin             951
11.3.3  Impacts in the Upper Missouri River Basin             968
11.3.4  Summary of Regional Water Impacts                     983
11.4  SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS                             984
11.4.1  Introduction                                          984
11.4.2  Population Impacts                                    985
11.4.3  Economic Impacts                                      992
11.4.4  Public Services                                      1001
11.4.5  Social and Cultural Effects                          1005
11.4.6  Political Impacts                                    1009
11.4.7  Energy-Related Economic Growth Impacts               1011
11.4.8  Personnel REsources Availability                     1019
11.4.9  Capital Availability                                 1027
11.4.10  Summary of Regional, Social, Economic, and
         Political Impacts                                   1035
11.5  ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS                                     1036
11.5.1  Introduction                                         1036
11.5.2  Impacts from Water Consumption                       1037
11.5.3  Terrestrial Habitat Degradation by Changing
        Land Use                                             1041
11.5.4  Ecological Impacts of Sulfur Pollution               1059
11.5.5  Summary of Regional Ecological Impacts               1069
11.6  TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS                                 1070
11.6.1  Introduction                                         1070
11.6.2  Magnitude of Transportation Activity                 1070
11.6.3  Input Requirements                                   1078
11.6.4  Impacts                                              1083
                                 xv

-------
                          LIST OF FIGURES

                            VOLUME II

                                                             Page

4-1   Kaiparowits/Escalante Area of Southern Utah             170
4-2   The Location of Hypothesized Energy Development
        Facilities in the Kaiparowits/Escalante Area          171
4-3   Air Impacts of Energy Facilities in the Kaiparowits/
        Escalante Scenario                                    184
4-4   Water Supplies and Pipelines for the Kaiparowits/
        Escalante Scenario                                    194
4-5   Water Consumption for a 3,000 Megawatt-Electric
        Power Plant at Kaiparowits/Escalante, Utah            203
4-6   Estimated Households and School Enrollment in Kane
        County, 1975-2000                                     226
4-7   Estimated Households and School Enrollment in
        Garfield County, 1975-2000                            227
4-8   Estimated Households and School Enrollment in Page,
        1975-2000                                             228
4-9   Median Family Income, Kane and Garfield Counties,
        1975-2000                                             232
4-10  Estimated Annual Income Distribution for Kane and
        Garfield Counties, 1975-2000                          233
4-11  Human Activities in the Kaiparowits/Escalante Area      252
5-1   The Navajo/Farmington Scenario Area                     269
5-2   The Location of Energy Development Facilities in the
        Navajo/Farmington Area                                270
5-3   Air Impacts of Energy Facilities in the Navajo/
        Farmington Scenario                                   283
5-4   Surface Water Features and Water Impacts at Navajo/
        Farmington                                            297
5-5   Water Consumption for Energy Facilities in the
        Navajo/Farmington Scenario                            306
5-6   Population Estimates for Non-Navajo Portion of
        San Juan County, 1980-2000                            337
5-7   Population Estimates for Navajo Reservation Portion
        of San Juan County, 1975-2000                         338
6-1   Location of the Rifle Scenario Area                     384
6-2   Energy Facilities in the Rifle Scenario                 385
6-3   Air Impacts of Energy Facilities in the Rifle
        Scenario                                              397
6-4   Water Pipelines for Energy Facilities in the Rifle
        Scenario                                              413
                                 xvi

-------
List of Figures (Continued)                                   Page

6-5   Water Consumption for Energy Facilities in the
        Rifle Scenario                                        421
6-6   Population Estimates for Garfield County, 1980-2000     448
6-7   Population Estimates for Rio Blanco County, 1980-2000   448
6-8   Estimated Number of Households and School Enrollment
        in Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties, 1980-2000        452
6-9   Median Family Income,  Garfield and Rio Blanco
        Counties,  1970-2000                                   457
6-10  Projected Annual Income Distribution for Garfield
        and Rio Blanco Counties, 1975-2000                    458
7-1   Map of the Gillette Scenario Area                       492
7-2   Energy Facilities in the Gillette Scenario              493
7-3   Surface Water Sources in the Vicinity of Gillette       523
7-4   Water Consumption for Energy Facilities in the
        Gillette Scenario                                     530
7-5   Water Pipelines for Energy Facilities in the
        Gillette Scenario                                     532
7-6   Population Estimates for Campbell County, Gillette,
        and Casper, 1975-2000                                 563
7-7   Projected Number of Households, Elementary and
        Secondary School Children in Campbell County,
        1975-2000                                             567
7-8   Projected Annual Income Distribution for Campbell
        County, 1975-2000                                     571
7-9   Expected Habitat Value Trends for Particular Animal
        Groups after Disturbance with Attempted Rehabilita-
        tion to Perennial Grasslands                          604
8-1   The Colstrip Scenario Area                              613
8-2   The Location of Energy Development Facilities at
        Colstrip                                              614
8-3   Important Hydrologic Features of the Colstrip
        Scenario Area                                         635
8-4   Water Consumption for Energy Facilities in the
        Colstrip Scenario                                     645
8-5   Water Pipelines for Energy Facilities in the Colstrip
        Scenario                                              646
8-6   Transportation Facilities in the Rosebud County Area    660
8-7   Population Estimates for Rosebud County, 1975-2000      670
8-8   Projected Number of Households, Elementary and Second-
        ary School Children in Rosebud County, 1975-2000      677
8-9   Projected Annual Income Distribution for Rosebud
        County, 1970-2000                                     681
8-10  Population Estimates for Billings and Miles City,
        1975-2000                                              682
9-1   The Beulah Scenario Area                                723
9-2   Energy Facilities in the Beulah Scenario                724
9-3   Water Pipelines for Energy Facilities in the
        Rifle Scenario                                        745
9-4   Water Consumption for Energy Facilities in the
        Beulah Scenario                                       754
                                xvii

-------
List of Figures (Continued)                                   Page

9-5    Population Estimates  for Beulah Scenario Area,
         1975-2000                                            780
9-6    Population Estimates  for Oliver and McLean Counties
         and Bismarck-Mandan,  1980-2000                       781
9-7    Projected Number of Households, Elementary, and
         Secondary School Children in Mercer County,
         1975-2000                                            784
10-1   Oxidant Concentration by Site                          826
10-2   Typical Surface Coal Mine Configuration                854
10-3   Radiated Noise for Typical Coal Mining Operation       855
10-4   Radiated Noise for Typical Power Plant Construction    857
10-5   Radiated Noise for Typical Power Plant Operation       859
10-6   Fraction of Inhaled Particles Deposited in the  Three
         Respiratory Tract Compartments as a Function  of
         Mass Median Diameter                                 875
11-1   General Distribution of Coal Resources in Eight
         Western States                                       915
11-2   General Distribution of Oil Shale Resources in
         Eight Western States                                  915
11-3   General Distribution of Uranium Resources in Eight
         Western States                                       916
11-4   General Distribution of Geothermal Resources in
         Eight Western States                                  916
11-5   Projected Increase Above 1975 Levels of Emissions
         in Two Subregions,  Low Demand Scenario               939
11-6   Growth of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in the Nominal
         Dirty Scenario                                       944
11-7   Growth of Oxides of Nitrogen Emissions in the
         Nominal Dirty Scenario                               945
11-8   Growth of Particulate Emissions in the Nominal
         Dirty Scenario                                       946
11-9   Growth of Hydrocarbon Emissions in the Nominal
         Dirty Scenario                                       947
11-10  Decline of Carbon Monoxide Emissions in the Nominal
         Dirty Scenario                                       948
11-11  Sources of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in Colorado and
         Arizona, 1980-2000                                    949
11-12  Upper Colorado River Basin                             952
11-13  Subbasins of the Missouri River Basin                  969
11-14  Environmental Compliance Dates Assumed in Strategic
         Environmental Assessment Systems Scenarios          1014
11-15  Annual Construction Expenditures on Water and Sewer
         Systems                                             1016
11-16  Conversion/Transport Configurations                   1071
11-17  Utility Coal Transportation from Western Sources,
         Year 2000                                           1072
11-18  High Btu Gas Transmission from Western Region,
         Nominal Demand Case,  Year 2000                      1075
                               XVlll

-------
List of Figures (Continued)                                   Page

11-19  Liquid Pipeline (Crude Oil, Shale Oil, Coal Syncrude)
         Energy Transported from Western Region, Nominal
         Demand Case, Year 2000                              1076
11-20  Electricity Transmitted from Western Region, Nominal
         Demand Case, Year 2000                              1077
11-21  Noise Level of Passing Coal Train                     1089
11-22  Day-Night Average Sound Level as a Function of
         Coal Train Frequency and Coal Tonnage               1091
                          LIST OF TABLES

                           VOLUME II

                                                             Page

II-l   Coal Composition for Site Specific Scenarios           163
4-1    Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at
         Kaiparowits/Escalante                                172
4-2    Selected Characteristics of the Kaiparowits/
         Escalante Area                                       174
4-3    Air Quality Measurements at Page, Arizona              176
4-4    Comparison of Emissions from One 3,000 Megawatt Power
         Plant with New Source Performance Standards          178
4-5    Pollution Concentrations from Power Plant at
         Kaiparowits                                          181
4-6    Pollution Concentrations from Power Plant at
         Escalante                                            182
4-7    Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative
         Emission Controls at Kaiparowits/Escalante Power
         Plants                                               185
4-8    Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack
         Heights at Kaiparowits/Escalante Power Plants        186
4-9    Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Plant
         Sizes at Escalante Power Plant                       188
4-10   Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Relocating the
         Escalante Power Plant from a Complex to a Flat
         Terrain                                              188
4-11   Pollution Concentrations Due to Urban Sources at
         Kaiparowits New Town in 1990                         191
4-12   Groundwater Quality Data for Kaiparowits Scenario      196
4-13   Storage and Water Quality Data for Lake Powell         198
4-14   Estimated 1975 Surface Water Resources and Uses
         for Utah in the Upper Colorado River Basin           199
4-15   Water Requirements for Energy Facilities at
         Kaiparowits                                          201
4-16   Effluents from Coal Conversion Process at
         Kaiparowits/Escalante                                205
4-17   Expected Water Requirements for Increased Population   210
4-18   Expected Wastewater Flows from Increased Population    210

                                xix

-------
List of Tables                                               Page

4-19  Population of Kane and Garfield Counties and County
        Seats, 1940-1974                                      215
4-20  Employment Distribution in Kaiparowits Area, 1974       217
4-21  Manpower Requirements for One 3,000 Megawatt Power
        Plant and Associated Coal Mine                        218
4-22  Capital Resources Required for Construction of
        Facilities                                            219
4-23  Construction and Operation Employment for Kaiparowits
        Scenario, 1975-2000                                   220
4-24  Population Estimates for Page and Communities in
        Kane County, 1975-2000                                222
4-25  Population Estimates for Communities in Garfield
        County, 1975-2000                                     223
4-26  Age-Sex Distribution for Page and Kane and Garfield
        Counties                                              224
4-27  Estimated Housing Demand in Kane and Garfield
        Counties, and Page, 1975-2000                         225
4-28  Estimated School Enrollment in Kane and Garfield
        Counties and Page                                     229
4-29  Finance Prospects for Kane and Garfield Counties and
        Page School Districts, 1975-2000                      230
4-30  Projected Income Distribution for Kane and Garfield
        Counties, 1975-2000                                   234
4-31  Property Tax Revenues                                   236
4-32  Allocation of Federal Coal Royalties                    237
4-33  Revenue from Sales and Use Taxes                        238
4-34  Government Fees for Services                            239
4-35  Summary of Revenues from Energy Development             239
4-36  Capital Requirements of Local Governments by
        Quinquennia                                           240
4-37  Increases in Operating Expenditures of Selected
        Levels of Government                                  241
4-38  Selected Characteristic Species of Main Habitat
        Types in Kaiparowits/Escalante Scenario               250
4-39  Land Use in Kaiparowits/Escalante Scenario              253
4-40  Habitat Losses over Time in the Kaiparowits/
        Escalante Scenario                                    254
4-41  Summary of Major Factors Affecting Ecolo'gical Impacts   261
4-42  Forecasts of Population Status of Major Species for
        the Kaiparowits/Escalante Scenario                    263
5-1   Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at Navajo/
        Farmington                                            271
5-2   Selected Characteristics of the Navajo/Farmington
        Area                                                  274
5-3   Emissions from Facilities                               277
5-4   Comparison of Emissions from Power Plant with New
        Source Performance Standards                          279
5-5   Pollution Concentrations from Lurgi Plant at
        Farmington                                            281
                                  xx

-------
List of Tables (Continued)                                    Page

5-6   Pollution Concentrations from Synthane Gasification
        Plant at Farmington                                   285
5-7   Pollution Concentrations from Synthoil Liquefaction
        Plant/Mine Combination at Farmington                  286
5-8   Pollution Concentrations from Power Plant/Mine
        Combination at Farmington                             288
5-9   Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Power
        Plant Emissions Controls at Navajo Power Plant        289
5-10  Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack
        Heights at Navajo Power Plant                         290
5-11  Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Plant
        Sizes at Navajo Power Plant                           291
5-12  Pollution Concentrations Due to Urban Sources at
        Farmington                                            293
5-13  Flow Characteristics of the San Juan River              299
5-14  Operating Conditions for Navajo Reservoir               300
5-15  New Mexico's Present and Projected San Juan River
        Water Allocations                                     301
5-16  Water Quality in San Juan River for 1973                303
5-17  Water Requirements for Energy Facilities at Farmington  304
5-18  Water Requirements for Reclamation                      307
5-19  Effluents from Energy Conversion Facilities at
        Farmington/Navajo                                     308
5-20  Expected Water Requirements for Increased Population    312
5-21  Wastewater Treatment Characteristics for Towns
        Affected by the Navajo Scenario                       314
5-22  Expected Wastewater Flows from Increased Population     315
5-23  Employment Distribution in San Juan County, 1973        324
5-24  Manpower Requirements for a 3,000 Megawatt Power
        Plant and Associated Mine                             326
5-25  Manpower Requirements for a Lurgi Plant and
        Associated Mine                                       327
5-26  Manpower Requirements for a Synthane Plant and
        Associated Mine                                       328
5-27  Manpower Requirements for a Synthoil Plant and
        Associated Mine                                       329
5-28  Manpower Requirements for an Underground Uranium
        Mine and Processing Mill                              330
5-29  Capital Resources Required for Construction of
        Facilities                                            331
5-30  New Employment in San Juan County from Energy
        Development and Navajo Indian Irrigation Project,
        1975-2000                                             333
5-31  Assumed Secondary/Basic Employment Multipliers for
        Navajo/Farmington Scenario, 1976-2000                 334
5-32  Population Estimates for San Juan County                336
5-33  Estimated Number of Households and School Enrollment
        in San Juan County, 1975-2000                         340
5-34  Projected Income Distribution for San Juan County,
        1975-2000                                             343
                                xxi

-------
List of Tables (Continued)                                    Page

5-35  Fiscal Impacts on Navajo Tribal Government              347
5-36  Projected Additional Utility Fees and Property
        Taxes, Nonreservation Communities                     347
5-37  Projected Additional Income and Sales Taxes             348
5-38  Projected Tax Revenues, Privilege and Severance Taxes   348
5-39  Projected Total Revenues from All Sources               349
5-40  Summary of Additional Local Governmental Expenditures
        and Revenues, Off-Reservation                         350
5-41  Selected Components of Main Communities, Navajo/
        Farmington Scenario                                   358
5-42  Land Use by Scenario Facilities                         361
5-43  Land Use in Farmington Scenario Area                    363
5-44  Potential Livestock Production Foregone in the •
        Navajo/Farmington Scenario Area                       364
5-45  Forecast of Population Status of Selected Species
        for the Farmington Scenario                           375
5-46  Summary of Major Factors Affecting Ecological Impacts   377
6-1   Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at Rifle          386
6-2   Selected Characteristics of the Rifle Area              388
6-3   Emissions from Facilities                               391
6-4   Comparison of Emissions from Power Plant with New
        Source Performance Standards                          393
6-5   Pollution Concentrations from a 1,000 Megawatt Power
        Plant at Rifle                                        395
6-6   Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative
        Emission Controls at Rifle Power Plant                399
6-7   Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack
        Heights at Rifle Power Plant                          400
6-8   Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Power
        Plant Sizes at Rifle                                  401
6-9   Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Relocating the
        Rifle Power Plant From a Complex to a Flat Terrain    402
6-10  Pollutant Concentrations from a 50,000 Barrel Per Day
        TOSCO II Oil Shale Processing Facility At Parachute
        Creek                                                 404
6-11  Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack
        Heights at Rifle TOSCO II Plant                       405
6-12  Pollutant Concentrations from a 57,000 Barrel Per
        Day In Situ Oil Shale Processing Facility at Rifle    406
6-13  Pollutant Concentrations from a 57,000 Barrel Per
        Day In Situ Oil Shale Processing Facility with
        Surface Retort at Rifle                               407
6-14  Pollution Concentrations Due to Urban Sources at Rifle  409
6-15  Pollution Concentrations Due to Urban Sources at Grand
        Valley, 1990                                          410
6-16  Water Use in the Upper Colorado River Basin Portion of
        the State of Colorado                                 416
6-17  Water Quality and Flow Data for Rifle Vicinity          417
6-18  Water Requirements for Energy Facilities at Rifle       420


                               xxii

-------
List of Tables (Continued)                                    Page

6-19  Effluents from Coal and Oil Shale Conversion
        Processes at Rifle                                    423
6-20  Expected Municipal Water Requirements for Increased
        Population in the Rifle Region                        429
6-21  Wastewater Treatment Characteristics for Towns
        Affected by the Rifle Scenario                        431
6-22  Expected Wastewater Flows from Increased Population
        in the Rifle Region                                   432
6-23  Populations of Counties and Towns in the Rifle
        Vicinity                                              438
6-24  Employment Distribution by Industry, Garfield and
        Rio Blanco, 1970                                      439
6-25  Land-Use Regulations, Garfield and Rio Blanco
        Counties and Local Municipalities, 1975               440
6-26  Manpower Requirements for a 1,000 Megawatt Power
        Plant and Associated Mine                             442
6-27  Manpower Requirements for a 50,000 Barrel Per Day
        TOSCO II Plant and Associated Mine                    442
6-28  Manpower Requirements for a 57,000 Barrel Per Day
        In. Situ Oil Shale Plant and Associated Mine           443
6-29  Capital Resources Required for Construction of
        Facilities                                            444
6-30  Construction and Operation Employment for Rifle
        Energy Development Scenario, 1975-2000                446
6-31  Population Estimates for Garfield and Rio Blanco
        Counties and Grand Junction, 1975-2000                447
6-32  Projected Age-Sex Distribution for Garfield and
        Rio Blanco Counties, 1975-2000                        450
6-33  Estimated Number of Households and School Enrollment
        in Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties, 1975-2000        451
6-34  School District Finance Prospects, Garfield and
        Rio Blanco County Districts, 1975-2000                454
6-35  Projected Income Distribution for Garfield and
        Rio Blanco Counties, 1975-2000                        456
6-36  Projected New Capital Expenditure Required for
        Public Services in Garfield and Rio Blanco
        County Communities, 1975-2000                         460
6-37  Additional Operating Expenditures for Municipal
        Government in Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties,
        1980-2000                                             461
6-38  Mill Levies and Per Capita Taxes for Jurisdictions in
        the Rifle Area                                        462
6-39  Property Tax Revenues from Energy Facilities            463
6-40  Revenues from Residential and Commercial Property
        Taxes and Municipal Utility Fees, Selected
        Jurisdictions                                         464
6-41  New Sales Tax Revenues                                  465
6-42  Summary of Revenues Due to Energy Facilities            466
6-43  Selected Characteristic Species of Main Communities,
        Rifle Scenario                                        472

                              xxiii

-------
List of Tables (Continued)                                    Page

6-44  Land Use by Scenario Facilities                         474
6-45  Land Use in Rifle Scenario Area                         476
6-46  Vegetation Losses Over Time in the Rifle Scenario Area  477
6-47  Summary of Major Ecological Impacts, Ranked by
        Significance                                          486
6-48  Forecast of Population Status of Selected Species       488
7-1   Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at Gillette       494
7-2   Selected Characteristics of the Gillette Area           498
7-3   Emissions from Facilities                               501
7-4   Comparison of Emissions from Power Plant with New
        Source Performance Standards                          502
7-5   Pollution Concentrations from Power Plant/Mine
        Combination                                           505
7-6   Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative
        Emission Controls at Gillette Power Plant             507
7-7   Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack
        Heights at Gillette Power Plant                       508
7-8   Pollution Concentrations from Lurgi Gasification Plant
        at Gillette                                           509
7-9   Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack
        Heights at Gillette Lurgi Facility                    510
7-10  Pollution Concentrations from Synthane Gasification
        Plant/Mine Combination at Gillette                    511
7-11  Pollution Concentrations from Synthoil Liquefaction
        Plant/Mine Combination at Gillette                    513
7-12  Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack
        Heights at Gillette Synthoil Plant                    514
7-13  Pollution Concentrations from Strip Mine for Coal Rail
        Transport at Gillette                                 515
7-14  Pollution Concentrations from Strip Mine for Coal
        Slurry Line at Gillette                               516
7-15  Pollution Concentrations from Natural Gas Production
        at Gillette                                           517
7-16  Pollution Concentrations Due to Urban Sources at
        Gillette                                              519
7-17  Legal Division of Flow:  Yellowstone River Tributaries  526
7-18  Water Use and Availability for Transport for Energy
        Development in Gillette                               527
7-19  Water Requirements for Energy Facilities at Gillette    528
7-20  Water Requirements for Reclamation                      531
7-21  Storage, Flow, and Quality Data for Possible Water
        Diversion Points to Supply Development at Gillette    533
7-22  Alternative Water Supply Costs for Gillette             534
7-23  Effluents from Energy Conversion Facilities at
        Gillette                                              536
7-24  Expected Water Requirements for Increased Population    542
7-25  Wastewater Treatment Characteristics of Communities
        Affected by Energy Development at Gillette            543
7-26  Expected Wastewater Flows from Increased Population     543


                                xxiv

-------
List of Tables (Continued)                                 *   Page

7-27  Employment Distribution by Industry for 1970 and 1975   550
7-28  Manpower Requirements for a 3,000 Megawatt Power
        Plant and Associated Mine                             552
7-29  Manpower Requirements for a Lurgi Plant and
        Associated Mine                                       553
7-30  Manpower Requirements for a Synthane Plant and
        Associated Mine                                       553
7-31  Manpower Requirements for a Synthoil Plant and
        Associated Mine                                       554
7-32  Manpower Requirements for a Surface Coal Mine for
        Rail Transport or Slurry Pipeline                     555
7-33  Manpower Requirements for Gas Wells                     555
7-34  Manpower Requirements for a Uranium Mill and
        Associated Mine                                       556
7-35  Manpower Requirements for a Solutional Uranium Mine     556
7-36  Capital Resources Required for Construction of
        Facilities                                            557
7-37  New Employment in Energy Development in Campbell
        County, 1975-2000                                     559
7-38  Employment and Population Multipliers for Gillette
        Scenario Population Estimates                         561
7-39  Population Estimates for Campbell County, Gillette,
        and Casper, 1975-2000                                 562
7-40  Projected Age-Sex Distributions of Campbell County,
        1975-2000                                             564
7-41  Estimated Number of Households and School Enrollment
        in Campbell County, 1975-2000                         566
7-42  Distribution of New Housing by Type of Dwelling         566
7-43  School District Finance Needs for Campbell County,
        1975-2000                                             568
7-44  Projected Income Distribution for Campbell County,
        1975-2000                                             570
7-45  Projected New Capital Expenditures Required for
        Public Services in Gillette, 1975-2000                573
7-46  Necessary Operating Expenditures of Gillette,
        1975-2000                                             574
7-47  New Property Tax Revenues, Campbell County              575
7-48  Severance Taxes and Public Royalties                    577
7-49  Additional Population-Related Taxes and Fees            577
7-50  New Revenue from Energy Development by Level of
        Government                                            579
7-51  Physician Needs in Campbell County, 1975-2000           580
7-52  Selected Characteristic Species of Main Communities,
        Gillette Scenario                                     588
7-53  Land Use by Scenario Facilities                         590
7-54  Land Use in Gillette Scenario Area                      592
7-55  Land Consumption:  Gillette Scenario                    593
7-56  Potential Livestock Production Foregone:  Gillette
        Scenario                                              594


                                 xxv

-------
List of Tables (Continued)                                    Page

7-57  Habitat Groups of Selected Animals Representative
        of the Study Area                                     603
7-58  Forecast of Population Status of Selected Species
        for the Gillette Scenario                             606
7-59  Summary of Major Factors Affecting Ecological Impacts   608
8-1   Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at Colstrip       615
8-2   Selected Characteristics of the Colstrip Area           616
8-3   Emissions from Facilities                               619
8-4   Comparison of Emissions from Power Plant with New
        Source Performance  Standards                          621
8-5   Pollution Concentrations from Power Plant/Mine
        Combination at Colstrip                               623
8-6   Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative
        Emissions Controls  at Colstrip Power Plant            625
8-7   Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack
        Heights at Colstrip Power Plant                       626
8-8   Pollution Concentrations from Lurgi Plant at Colstrip   627
8-9   Pollution Concentrations from Synthane Plant at
        Colstrip                                              629
8-10  Pollution Concentrations from Synthoil Plant at
        Colstrip                                              630
8-11  Pollution Concentrations Due to Urban Sources at
        Colstrip                                              632
8-12  Selected Flow Data for the Upper Missouri and
        Yellowstone Rivers                                     638
8-13  Estimated 1975 Surface Water Situation for Selected
        Areas in Montana                                      640
8-14  Selected Water Quality Parameters for Major
        Southeastern Rivers                                   641
8-15  Water Requirements for Energy Facilities at Colstrip    643
8-16  Water Requirements for Reclamation                      647
8-17  Effluents from Coal Conversion Processes at Colstrip    648
8-18  Expected Water Requirements for Increased Population    652
8-19  Expected Wastewater Flows from Increased Population     653
8-20  Wastewater Treatment  Characteristics for the
        Colstrip Scenario                                     654
8-21  Population of Rosebud County, Colstrip and Forsyth,
        1940-1975                                             661
8-22  Employment Distribution in Rosebud County, 1970         662
8-23  Manpower Requirements for a 3,000 Megawatt Power
        Plant and Associated Mine                             663
8-24  Manpower Requirements for a Lurgi Plant and
        Associated Mine                                       664
8-25  Manpower Requirements for a Synthane Plant and
        Associated Mine                                       665
8-26  Manpower Requirements for a Synthoil Plant and
        Associated Mine                                       666
8-27  Capital Resources Required for Construction of
        Facilities                                            668


                                 xxvi

-------
List of Tables (Continued)                                    Page

8-28  Construction and Operation Employment for Colstrip
        Scenario, 1975-2000                                   669
8-29  Employment and Population Multipliers for Colstrip
        Scenario Population Estimates                         671
8--30  Assumed Population Attraction or Capture Rates Used
        to Allocate Population Within Rosebud County          672
8-31  Population Estimates for Rosebud County, 1975-2000      673
8-32  Projected Age-Sex Distribution for Rosebud County,
        1975-2000                                             675
8-33  Estimated Number of Households and School Enrollment
        in Rosebud County,  1975-2000                          676
8-34  School Finance Conditions for Rosebud County
        Districts, 1975-2000                                  678
8-35  Projected Income Distribution for Rosebud County,
        1975-2000                                             680
8-36  Projected Population for Billinqs Area and Miles
        City, 1975-2000              "                        683
8-37  Projected New Capital Expenditures Required in
        Forsyth and Ashland, 1975-2000                        684
8-38  Projected Operating Expenditures of Forsyth and
        Ashland, 1980-2000                                    685
8-39  Severance Tax Revenues from Colstrip Scenario
        Energy Development                                    687
8-40  Projected Property Valuation in Rosebud County          688
8-41  Projected Property Tax Receipts in Rosebud County        689
8-42  New State Income Tax Receipts from Energy Development   690
8-43  Distribution of New Tax Revenues from Colstrip
        Scenario Development                                  691
8-44  Consolidated Fiscal Balance, Town of Forsyth and
        Rosebud County, 1976-1985                             692
8-45  Selected Characteristic Species of Main Communities,
        Colstrip Scenario                                     699
8-46  Land Use by Scenario Facilities                         701
8-47  Land Use                                                703
8-48  Potential Livestock Production Foregone:  Colstrip
        Scenario                                              704
8-49  Forecasts of Population Status of Selected Major
        Species for the Colstrip Scenario                     715
8-50  Summary of Major Factors Affecting Ecological Impacts   718
9-1   Resources and Hypothesized Facilities at Beulah         725
9-2   Selected Characteristics of the Beulah Area             727
9-3   Emissions from Facilities                               729
9-4   Comparison of Emissions from Power Plant with New
        Source Performance Standards                          731
9-5   Pollution Concentrations from Power Plant/Mine
        Combination at Beulah                                 733
9-6   Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative
        Emission Controls at Beulah Power Plant               735
9-7   Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Stack
        Heights at Beulah Power Plant                         737

                                xxv ii

-------
List of Tables (Continued)                                    Page

9-8   Air Quality Impacts Resulting from Alternative Plant
        Sizes at Beulah Power Plant                           738
9-9   Pollution Concentrations from Lurgi Plant at Beulah     739
9-10  Pollution Concentrations from Synthane Plant
        at Beulah                                             740
9-11  Pollution Concentrations Due to Urban Sources
        at Beulah                                             741
9-12  Reservoir Characteristics — Lake Sakakawea               747
9-13  Stream Flow Data in the Beulah Scenario Area            748
9-14  Consumptive Water Uses in the Western Dakotas Subbasin  749
9-15  Water Quality Data for the Beulah Scenario              750
9-16  Water Requirements for Energy Facilities at Beulah      752
9-17  Water Requirements for Reclamation                      756
9-18  Effluents from Coal Conversion Processes at Beulah     . 757
9-19  Expected Water Requirements for Increased Population    762
9-20  Expected Wastewater Flows from Increased Population     762
9-21  Wastewater Treatment Characteristics of Communities
        Affected by Beulah Scenario                           763
9-22  Population, Mercer County and North Dakota, 1950-1970   769
9-23  Employment by Industry Group in Mercer County, 1970     770
9-24  Manpower Requirements for a 3,000 Megawatt Power
        Plant and Associated Mine                             773
9-25  Manpower Requirements for a Lurgi or Synthane Plant
        and Associated Mine                                   774
9-26  Capital Resources Required for Construction of
        Facilities                                            775
9-27  Construction and Operation Employment in Beulah
        Energy Development Scenario, 1975-2000                777
9-28  Employment and Population Multipliers in the Beulah
        Scenario                                              778
9-29  Population Estimates for the Beulah Scenario,
        1975-2000                                             779
9-30  Projected Age-Sex Distribution for Mercer County,
        1975-2000                                             783
9-31  Number of Households and School Enrollment in Mercer
        County, 1975-2000                                     785
9-32  Distribution of New Housing Needs by Type of Dwelling   785
9-33  School Finance Needs for Mercer County and Bismarck-
        Mandan, 1975-2000                                     787
9-34  Projected Income Distribution for Mercer County,
        1975-2000                                             788
9-35  Projected New Capital Expenditure Required for Public
        Services in Selected North Dakota Communities,
        1975-2000                                             790
9-36  Necessary Operating Expenditures of Municipal
        Governments in Selected Communities, 1980-2000        791
9-37  Allocation of Taxes Levied Directly on Energy
        Facilities, Mercer County                             795
9-38  Selected Characteristic Species of Major Beulah
        Scenario Biological Communities                       801

                                xxviii

-------
List of Tables (Continued)                                    Page

9-39   Land Use by Scenario Facilities at Beulah              804
9-40   Land Use in the Beulah Scenario Area                   805
9-41   Habitat Loss over Time in the Beulah Scenario Area     806
9-42   Agricultural Production Foregone                       807
9-43   Forecast of Population Status of Selected Species
         for the Beulah Scenario                              815
9-44   Summary of Major Factors Affecting Ecological Impacts  818
10-1   Selected Quarterly Average Sulfate Concentrations
         for 1974                                             823
10-2   Ground-Level Sulfate Concentrations for Power Plants   825
10-3   1953-1970 Visibility Trends in Selected Locations      829
10-4   Worst-Case Visibility Reduction at One Percent
         Sulfate Conversion Rate                              831
10-5   Cooling Tower Salt Deposits for Site Specific
         Scenarios                                            833
10-6   Worst-Case Hydrogen Sulfide Impacts from a 100
         Megawatt Geothermal Power Plant                      837
10-7   Trace Elements in Selected Western Coals               839
10-8   Concentrations of Trace Elements in Selected
         Source Water                                         840
10-9   Range of Concentration of Selected Constituents in
         Scrubber Liquors                                     845
10-10  Selected Compositions of Sludge Liquors and
         Leachates                                            847
10-11  Sound Levels Required to Protect Public Health
         and Welfare                                          850
10-12  Sound Levels Permitting Speech Communication           851
10-13  Quality of Telephone Usage in the Presence of
         Steady-State Masking Noise                           851
10-14  Representative Sound Level for Mining Noise Sources    853
10-15  Sound Levels for Construction Noise Sources            856
10-16  Representative Sound Level for Coal-Fired Power
         Plant Noise Sources                                  858
10-17  Categories of Aesthetic Impacts                        860
10-18  Selected Types of Health Responses                     865
10-19  Selected Residuals from Energy Development and
         Types of Health Effects                              866
10-20  Air Pollutants and Associated Respiratory Health
         Effects                                              868
10-21  Local Scenario Sulfate Concentrations and Their
         Health Effects                                       870
10-22  Health Impacts of Sulfate Aerosol                      871
10-23  Peak Nitrogen Dioxide Concentration for Scenario
         Locations                                            873
10-24  Average Biweekly Respiratory Illness Rates per 1,000
         for Families According to Exposure to Nitrogen
         Dioxide                                              874
10-25  Carcinogens and Their Effects                          877
10-26  Radioactivity in Selected Coals                        880


                                xxix

-------
List of Tables (Continued)                                    Page

10-27  Estimated Annual Average Airborne Radioactivity Due
         to Coal Combustion in 1990 and 2000                  882
10-28  Estimated Individual Lung Doses in Vicinity of Page,
         Escalante,  and Glen Canyon Due to Atmospheric
         Radioactivity Produced by Coal Combustion            882
10-29  Radiation Doses to Individuals Due to Inhalation in
         the Vicinity of a Model Mill                         884
10-30  Increase in Community Populations Due to Energy
         Development Hypothesized for the Six Site-Specific
         Scenarios                                            891
10-31  Number of Communities Identified as Having Health
         Impacts as  a Result of Energy Development            892
10-32  Summary of Occupational Accident Data for Typical
         Size Facilities                                      895
10-33  Safety Risks  Associated with Energy Facilities
         Expressed per Individual                             896
10-34  Injury Rates  in Selected Industries, 1973              897
10-35  Annual Deaths, Injuries, and Work Days Lost for
         Coal-Fired Electricity Systems                       898
10-36  Occupational Safety Risks in Oil and Gas Development
         Operations                                            905
10-37  Type of Accident Occurrence by Geothermal Resource     906
10-38  Summary of Safety Hazards in Oil Shale Development     908
11-1   Projection of Western Energy Resource Production
         Nominal Demand Case                                  921
11-2   Projection of Western Energy Resource Production
         Low Demand Case                                      923
11-3   Number of Facilities by State in the Low and Nominal
         Demand Scenarios                                     926
11-4   Regional Air Quality and National Standards            929
11-5   Emissions from Energy Facilities                       932
11-6   Projected Emissions for the Northern Great Plains:
         Low Demand Scenario                                  934
11-7   Projected Emissions for the Northern Great Plains:
         Nominal Demand Scenario                              935
11-8   Projected Emissions for the Rocky Mountain States:
         Low Demand Scenario                                  936
11-9   Projected Emissions for the Rocky Mountain States:
         Nominal Demand Scenario                              937
11-10  Projected Emissions in Six Western States:  Low and
         Nominal Demand Scenarios                             938
11-11  Emissions in Selected States in 1972                   941
11-12  Emission Densities for Sulfur Dioxide                  942
11-13  Estimated 1974 Depletions in the Upper Colorado
         River Basin                                          955
11-14  Average Total Dissolved Solids Concentrations in
         Streams of the Upper Colorado Region, 1941-1972      957
11-15  Water Required for Energy Facilities in Upper
         Colorado River Basin for Year 2000                   961


                                 xxx

-------
List of Tables (Continued)                                    Page

11-16  Water Requirements for Population Increases in the
         Upper Colorado River Basin                           962
11-17  Water Effluents from Energy Developments in the
         Upper Colorado River Basin                           963
11-18  Industrial Water Demand Versus Supply for Selected
         River Basins                                         965
11-19  Flow in Major Streams in the Fort Union Coal Region
         of the Upper Missouri River Basin                    971
11-20  Water Supply and Use in the Upper Missouri River
         Basin                                                972
11-21  Water Quality of Selected Rivers in the Fort Union
         Coal Area of the Upper Missouri River Basin          973
11-22  Allocation of Flows  by Interstate Water Compacts for
         Streams Within the Fort Union Coal Region            975
11-23  Water Required for Energy Facilities in the Upper
         Missouri River Basin                                 978
11-24  Water Requirements for Population Increases in the
         Upper Missouri River Basin                           979
11-25  Water Effluents from Energy Development in the
         Upper Missouri River Basin                           980
11-26  Employment and Population Multipliers for Operation
         Phase                                                986
11-27  Population Increases in Western States After 1975
         Due to Energy Development                            987
11-28  Permanent Population Additions After 1975 for Energy
         Areas of Six Western States                          988
11-29  Population Increases in Western States After 1975
         Due to Energy Development                            989
11-30  Comparison of Population Increases for Low Demand
         Case Energy Development with Obers Population
         Projections, 1980-2000                               991
11-31  Changes in Annual Personal Income, Six Western States,
         Low Demand Case Energy Development                   993
11-32  Percentage of Income Derived from Economic Sectors
         in the Western Region, 1972                          995
11-33  Salable By-Products  from Lurgi Coal Gasification       998
11-34  Local Capital Expenditure Needs for Low Demand Case
         Energy Development, 1975-2000                       1002
11-35  Annual Additional Operating Expenditures of Local
         Governments in Six Western States, 1980-2000,
         for Low Demand Energy Development                   1003
11-36  New Annual Expenditures, Capital and Operating, of
         State Governments, 1980-2000, Low Demand Energy
         Development                                         1004
11-37  State Mineral Severance Taxes, Property Taxes, and
         Energy Conversion Taxes                             1006
11-38  Annual Energy Tax and Property Tax Revenues in Six
         Western States, 1980-2000                           1007
11-39  Increased Number of Doctors Needed in Western States
         by Year 2000, Low Demand Case                       1009

                                xxxi

-------
List of Tables (Continued)                                    Page

11-40  The Twenty-Five Fastest Growing Industrial Sectors
         in Three Time Frames:  Comparison of Growth for
         Energy Related and Nonenergy Related Sectors        1012
11-41  Sectors with Largest Differences in Output Between
         Clean and Dirty Scenarios, as of 1980               1017
11-42  Industries Showing the Largest State-Level Differences
         in Output, Nominal Clean Versus Nominal Dirty
         Scenarios, 1990                                     1018
11-43  Demand for Skilled and Professional Personnel,
         Western Region, Post-1975 Facilities, Low Demand
         Case                                                1020
11-44  1985 Western Energy Demand for Operational Labor as
         Percentage of 1970 National Market, Low Demand Case 1022
11-45  Demand for Construction Workers, Skilled and
         Professional, Western Region, Low Demand Case       1024
11-46  1985 Western Energy Demand for Construction Labor as
         Percentage of 1970 National Market, Low Demand Case 1025
11-47  1985 Western Energy Demand for Selected Occupations
         in Construction, Mining, Petroleum Refining, and
         Electric Utilities:  Low Demand Case                1026
11-48  Capital Resources Required for Construction of
         Facilities                                          1028
11-49  Cash Flow, 1976-2000, Four Major Energy Systems in
         Western States, Low Demand Case                     1029
11-50  Values of Facilities Placed in Operation, by State,
         1975-1990 and 1990-2000                             1031
11-51  Investment Costs for Energy Transport, 1975-2000      1032
11-52  Investments for Western Energy Compared to National
         New Plant Investments                               1034
11-53  New Land Requirements for Energy Facilities and
         Urban Land for Low Demand Case, 1980-2000           1043
11-54  Land Use by Region, Low and Nominal Demand Cases      1044
11-55  Expected Population Increases Due to Nominal Case
         Development in Selected States and the Eight-State
         Region                                              1046
11-56  Major Backcountry Areas Likely to Receive Increased
         Pressure Due to Energy Development                  1047
11-57  Surface Acreage Ultimately Disturbed by Surface
         Coal Mining Through the Year 2000                   1050
11-58  Selected Sulfur Dioxide Concentrations Which
         Experimentally Produced Acute Injury in Western
         Plant Species                                       1062
11-59  Summary Estimates of the Economic Characteristics
         of Transport Modes                                  1079
11-60  Western Energy Transport, Year 2000, Increase over
         Year 1975                                           1080
11-61  Nominal and Low Demand Case Input Requirements, 1975
         Through 2000, for Coal and Electricity
         Transportation Systems                              1084
11-62  Health and Safety Impacts                             1086

                                xxxii

-------
               LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
AC
acre-f t
acre-f t/yr
AOG
AsH3
AUM
BACT
bbl
bbl/day
bcf
BIA
BLM
BPT
Btu
Btu/bbl
BuRec
CAA
CaC03
cf s
CO
CO 2
dB
dBA
DC
EDA
EHV
EPA
ERDS
ESP
F
FDA
FERC
FGD
FPC
FWPCA
GACLA
GNP
gpd
gpm
HC
H2S
alternating current
acre-feet
acre-feet per year
associations of government
arsine
animal units per month
best available control technology
barrel(s)
barrel(s) per day
billion cubic feet
Bureau of Indian Affairs
Bureau of Land Management
best practicable technology
British thermal unit
British thermal units per barrel
Bureau of Reclamation
Clean Air Act
calcium carbonate
calcium sulfate
cubic feet per second
carbon monoxide
carbon dioxide
decibel
decibel(s) A-weighted
direct current
Economic Development Administration
extra-high voltage
Environmental Protection Agency
Energy Resource Development Systems
electrostatic precipitator
Fahrenheit
Food and Drug Administration
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
flue gas desulfurization
Federal Power Commission
Federal Water Pollution Control Act
Governors' Advisory Council on Local Affairs
gross national product
gallons per day
gallons per minute
hydrocarbons
hydrogen sulfide
                           XXXlll

-------
kV
kWh
Ibs/ton
LCRB
Ldn
MESA
mg/£
MMcfd
MMgpd
MMscfd
MMtpy
MW
MWe
mph
NAAQS
NC
NH3
NH^Cl
NIOSH

NO
N02
NOX
NSPS
OPEC
ORV
PAH
pCi/g
pCi/£
pH
ppb
ppm
PSD
psi
psia
Q
Ra-226
Rn-222
SEAS
S02
S&PP
SRI
tcf
TDS
TOSCO
tpd
tpy
TSP
TVA
UCRB
kilovolt(s)
kilowatt-hour(s)
pounds per ton
Lower Colorado River Basin
day-night equivalent sound level
Mining Enforcement and Safety Administration
milligrams per liter
million cubic feet per day
million gallons per day
million standard cubic feet per day
million tons per year
megawatt(s)
megawatt-electric
miles per hour
National Ambient Air Quality Standards
not calculated or not considered
ammonia
ammonium chloride
National Institute of Occupational Safety and
  Health
nitric oxide
nitrogen dioxide
oxides of nitrogen
New Source Performance Standards
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
off-road vehicle
polyaromatic hydrocarbons
picocuries per gram
picocuries per liter
acidity/alkalinity
parts per billion
parts per million
prevention of significant deterioration
pounds per square inch
pounds per square inch atmosphere
1015 British thermal units and/or quad(s)
Radium 226
Radon 222 gas
Strategic Environmental Assessment System
sulfur dioxide
Science and Public Policy Program
Stanford Research Institute
trillion cubic feet
total dissolved solids
The Oil Shale Corporation
tons per day
tons per year
total suspended particulates
Tennessee Valley Authority
Upper Colorado River Basin
microgram(s)
                          xxxiv

-------
yg/m3             micrograms per cubic meter
UMRB              Upper Missouri River Basin
Us OB              uranium oxide and/or yellowcake
USGS              U.S. Geological Survey
WPA               Water Purification Associates
ZDP               zero discharge of pollutants
                           xxxv

-------
                            CONVERSION  TABLE
             BTU CONTENT  OF  ENERGY FORMS
Electricity:  1 kWh - 3413 Btu.

Natural  gas:  1 cubic foot - 1000 Btu.

Petroleum:    1 barrel (bbl) - 42 gallons

             crude oil—1 bbl - 5.8 million Btu;

             distillate fuel—1 bbl - 5.8 million Btu;

             residual fuel --1 bbl - 6.3 million  Btu;

             gasoline--! bbl " 5.3 million Btu;

             Uranium—1 pound Uj>5 - 3.6 X 101* Btu.
1  itlllcm - 10'
1 billion - 10'
) trillion - 101'
1  Quad  -  10"  Btu
I  un-gawatt  -  10* Watts
1  Kilowatt  -  10' Watts
                                         ENERGY
raits
1 joule
1 cal
1 Btu
1 VWh
joule
1
4.186
1.055 X 10'
3.6 X 10*
cal
2.389 X 10"'
1
2.52 X 101
9.6 X 10!
Btu
9.48 X 10~*
3.97 X 10~'
1
3.413'X 10'
VWh
2.778 X 10"'
1.163 X 10"*
2.93 X 10"*
1
                                         RATE
UNITS
1 gal Ion /minute
1 acre-foot/year
Cubic Meter/tear
1.9898 X 10'
1.2335 X 10J
. _£sll2B_filinute 	
1
6.2 X 10~*
Ac re-Fpet /Ypar
1.613
1
                                       PRESSURE
UNITS
1 atmosphere
1 pound/sq. Inch
atmospheres
1
6.804 X 10~2
kilonrans/sauare
centloeter
1.033
7.03 X 10"*
pounds J>er
square inch
1.469 X 101
1
N/m1, Pa
1.03 X 105
6394.76
                                        LEKCTH
UNITS
1 meter
1 yard
1 mile
Meteri
1
9.14 X Hf1
1.609 X 10'
Feet
3.28
3.0
5.28 X 10'
Yard*
1.093
1
1.76 X 10*
Miles
6.21 X 10"*
K 5.68 X 10"*
1
                                         WEIGHT
UNITS
1 kilogram
1 metric ton
1 too (short)
Kllogru
1
1.0 X 10'
9.072 X 101
Pound
2.2046
2.205 X 10*
2.0 X 101
Metric Too
1.0 X ID"1
1
9.078 X 10~'
Ton (Short)
1.102 X 10~'
1.102
1
                                         VOLUME
UNITS
1 liter
1 acre-foot
1 Mllon (U.S.)
Liters
1
1.234 X 10'
3.785
Cubic F».et
3.531 X 11~2
4.356 X 10*
1.337 X 10~l
Acre-Feet
8.107 X 10"'
1
3.068 ? 10"'
Gallons
Z.642 X 10" '
3.259 X 10s
1
                                         AREA
UNITS
1 square meter
1 square yard
1 acre
1 square mile
Square Meters
1
8.361 X 10~l
4.047 X 10'
2.59 X 10§
Square Feat
1.076 X 10
9.0
4.35 X 10*
2.788 X 107
Square tards
1.196
1
4.84 X 10'
3.098
Acres
2.471 X 10~*
2.066 X 10~*
1
6.402 X 102
Square Miles
3.86 X 10~'
3.228 X 10"'
1.562 X 10"'
1
stm
pst
cal
- atmospheres
» pounds per square Inrh
- calorie
N/.1.
Btu -
kWh -
Pa - Newton per
British thermal
kilowatt hour
square Meter, Pascal
units

                              XXXVI

-------
                        ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

     The research reported here could not have been completed
without the assistance of a dedicated administrative support
staff.  Members of the staff are an integral part of the inter-
disciplinary team approach employed by the Science and Public
Policy Program.  This staff is headed by Janice Whinery, Assis-
tant to the Director, and Nancy Heinicke, Clerical Supervisor.
Staff members are:  Ellen Ladd, Cyndy Allison, Patti Mershon,
Brenda Skaggs, Pam Odell, Judy Williams, and Julia Leonard.
Sharon Pursel assisted as Clerical Supervisor in the production
of the draft policy analysis report.

     The research support staff is headed by Martha Jordan, Li-
brarian.  Research Team Assistants are David Sage, Mary Sutton,
and Diane Dean.  Lorna Caraway and Phil Kabrich assisted as Re-
search Team Assistants in the final production of the report.

     Nancy Ballard, graphics arts consultant, designed the title
page.

     Steven E. Plotkin, EPA Project Officer, and Terry Thoem,
EPA, Denver, have provided continuing support and assistance in
the preparation of this report.

     An Advisory Committee and numerous individuals, corporations,
government agencies, and public interest groups have assisted the
team at various stages in the preparation of the report.  The
names of the members of the Advisory Committee are listed below.
Others who have assisted are far too numerous to list here.
Needless to say, no member of the Advisory Committee, consultant,
or any other individual or agency is responsible for the content
of this progress report.   The report is the sole responsibility
of the Science and Public Policy interdisciplinary research team
conducting this study.

Mr. John Bermingham                Dr. Thadis W. Box
Attorney                           Dean
Denver, Colorado                   College of Environmental
(formerly Regional Represen-         Studies
tative for the secretary, U.S.      Utah State University
Department of Commerce)             Logan, Utah
                        xxxvn

-------
Governor Jack Campbell
President
Federation of Rocky Mountain
  States
Denver, Colorado

Mr. Bill Conine
Environmentalist
Energy Minerals—U.S. and
  Canada
Mobil Oil Corporation
Denver, Colorado

Ms. Sharon Eads
Attorney
Native American Rights Fund
Boulder, Colorado

Mr. Michael B. Enzi
Mayor
Gillette, Wyoming

Mr. Lionel S. Johns
Program Manager
Office of Technology
  Assessment
U.S. Congress
Washington, D.C.

Mr. Kenneth Kauffman
Chairman
Water for Energy Management
  Team
U.S. Department of the
  Interior
Engineering and Research
  Center
Denver, Colorado

Mr. S.P. Mathur
Division of Regional
  Assessment
U.S. Department of Energy
Washington, D.C.
(formerly ERDA Representative
to the Water Resources Council)
Mr. Leonard Meeker
Attorney
Center for Law and Social
  Policies
Washington, D.C.

Dr. Richard Meyer
ABT Associates
Anglewood, Colorado
(formerly Acting Director,
Western Governors' Energy
Policy Office)

Dr. Raphael Moure
Industrial Hygienist
Oil, Chemical, and Atomic
  Workers Union
Denver, Colorado

Mr. Bruce Pasternack
Booz, Allen, Hamilton
Bethesda, Maryland
(formerly Assistant Admini-
strator, Policy and Program
Evaluation, Federal Energy
Administration, Washington,
D.C.)

Mr. Robert Richards
Kaiser Engineers
Oakland, California

Mr. H. Anthony Ruckel
Regional Lawyer
Sierra Club Legal Defense
  Fund
Denver, Colorado

Mr. Warren Schmechel
President and Chief
  Operating Officer
Western Energy Company
Butte, Montana

Mr. Vernon Valantine
Colorado River Board of
  California
Los Angeles, California
                       xxxv in

-------
     Three subcontractors contributed to the impact analyses and
background studies used in this report:  Radian Corporation,
Austin, Texas; Water Purification Associates, Cambridge, Massa-
chusetts; and the Western Governors' Policy Office, Denver,
Colorado.

     Others who have contributed to specific analyses include:
Mr. Donald S. Cooper
Principal Energy Analyst
International Research and
  Technology Corporation
McLean, Virginia

Dr. James M. Goodman
Associate Professor of
  Geography
University of Oklahoma

Dr. Arnold G. Henderson
Professor of Architecture
University of Oklahoma
Dr. Daniel B. Kohlhepp
Assistant Professor of
  Finance
University of Oklahoma

Mr. Richard Meyer
Program Manager
International Research and
  Technology Corporation
McLean, Virginia
                            XXXIX

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      PART II:  SITE-SPECIFIC AND REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSES
II.I  INTRODUCTION

     This part of the report presents results of our analysis of
the impacts likely to occur when western energy resources are de-
veloped.  Chapters 4-9 report the results of site-specific impact
analyses.  Knowledge concerning some local impacts is so limited
that they cannot be analyzed for each site; and some local impacts
do not vary significantly on the basis of site-specific differ-
ences.  These localized impacts are discussed in Chapter 10.1
Regional impact analysis results are reported in Chapter 11.

     The site-specific impacts analyzed in Chapters 4-9 are di-
vided into four major categories:  air; water; social and economic;
and ecological.  These and a transportation impact category are
included in the regional impacts analyzed in Chapter 11.  The meth-
ods and assumptions used in each of the four major categories are
briefly described below.

LI.2  IMPACT ANALYSIS METHODS2

II.2.1  Air Impact Analysis

     Gaussian dispersion models were used to determine the ambi-
ent air impact of air emissions.3  These models incorporate


      lrrhey include some air quality impact categories (e.g.,  cool-
ing tower salt deposition and fugitive dust), trace elements, solid
waste treatment and disposal, noise, aesthetics, and health effects
(both public health and occupational health and safety).

      2A more detailed description of the methods used in the anal-
ysis of impacts can be found in White, Irvin L., et al.  First
Year Work Plan for a Technology Assessment of Western Energy Re-
source Development.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Pro-
tection Agency, 1976.  More detailed assumptions are introduced
in Chapters 4-9.

      3For a description of the dispersion model, see White,
Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West:  A Progress Report of a
Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource Development.
Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977,
Appendix A.
                               160

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modifications to measure impacts in rough terrain.  When modeled
results were compared with measured air quality data taken in the
vicinity of the Navajo power plant near Page, Arizona, they were
found to be accurate to within i50 percent.

     The air emissions modeled in this study originate from three
types of sources:  plants, mines, and urban populations.  Emissions
data for mines and facilities are from the Energy From the. West:
Energy Resource Development Systems (ERDS) Report prepared to
codify baseline data for the project.1  Urban emission rates were
obtained by averaging per capita emissions for:  Salt Lake City,
Utah; Denver, Colorado; Albuquerque, New Mexico; Santa Fe, New
Mexico; Phoenix, Arizona; Billings, Montana; Casper, Wyoming; and
Rapid City, South Dakota.2

     The dispersion modeling of the three types of emissions
sources were each performed somewhat differently.  Plants were
modeled as a combination of elevated sources (stacks) and ground-
level sources (fugitive emissions), and the mines and urban areas
were modeled as ground-level sources.  Since the dispersion condi-
tions that create high concentrations from elevated sources are
different from those that create high concentrations from ground-
level sources, several different dispersion conditions were inves-
tigated for both types of sources at the plants and mines:

   • Short-Term (3 hours or less) Average Concentrations.
     Conditions producing plume looping, terrain impaction,
     and limited vertical mixing were modeled to determine
     the peak concentrations from elevated sources; and,
     ground-based inversions and low wind speeds typical of
     stagnation conditions were modeled for ground-level
     sources.

   • Intermediate-Term (3-24 hours)  Average Concentrations.
     Realistic sequences of meteorological conditions were
     modeled that included the short-term dispersion condi-
     tions which produced the highest concentrations.  The
     averaging time period was divided into an integral
     number of shorter term intervals with specific plant
     emissions and meteorological conditions which were
     assumed constant within a time interval but which
     could change from interval to interval.  The short-
     term model was used to compute the concentrations at
     particular receptors, and the final concentration for


     xWhite, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West;  Energy Re-
source Development Systems Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.

     2Data for smaller cities with populations comparable to those
found in the eight-state study area were not available.

                                161

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     the desired averaging time was computed by averaging
     contributions from the individual time increments.

   • Annual Average Concentrations.
     Concentrations, predicted using National Weather Service
     statistical data, were computed for a grid of receptors
     based on the frequency of occurrence of different sets
     of meteorological conditions.

     The highest ground-level concentrations and averaging time
for each pollutant were selected from these cases and are reported
as "peak" values.  Also computed for each facility were more typ-
ical concentrations that would be expected to occur downwind of
the plant.

     Sensitivity analyses were carried out on stack height, sulfur
dioxide (SO2)  scrubber and electrostatic precipitator efficiencies,
terrain characteristics, and plant size for the elevated sources
by calculating dispersion and reporting ambient concentrations for
different values of each of these variables.

     The urban areas were modeled on an annual average basis using
statistical meteorological data.1  The peak concentrations for the
shorter term averages were computed using Larsen's statistics.2

     Projections of emissions from power plants were based on sev-
eral assumptions about the characteristics of the coal to be used
in each scenario.  Table II-l summarizes the sulfur and British
thermal unit (Btu)  content of the coal and S02 emission rates for
each scenario.   These data indicate that the coal found in the vi-
cinity of each scenario varies with respect to sulfur and Btu con-
tent.  Coal of average sulfur and Btu content was selected for use
in each scenario.  Emission rates also depend on the amount of sul-
fur retained in the ash, as indicated in Table II-l.  For the sce-
narios analyzed, the emission factors were based on the assumption
that none of the sulfur was retained in the ash.

II.2.2  Water Impact Analysis

     Descriptions of the availability and quality of surface water
and groundwater at each of the six sites and in the eight-state


     ^.S., Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmos-
pheric Administration, Environmental Data Service.  Wind Distri-
bution by Pasquill Stability Classes, Star Program.  Ashville,
N.C.:  National Climatic Center, 1975.

     2Larsen,  Ralph I.  A Mathematical Model Relating Air Quality
Measurements to Air Quality Standards, Number AP-89.  Washington,
D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Pro-
grams, November 1971.

                               162

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                                    163

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study area are based on secondary sources.  Data on the water re-
quirements for energy facilities are taken from two sources:  the
ERDS Report,1 and Water Purification Associates' (WPA)  Water Re-
quirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel
Plants in the Western United States.2  The ERDS Report's descrip-
tions of water requirements are based on a variety of secondary
sources and represent likely average water use.  The WPA estimates
are site-specific and are the minimum water requirements within
the constraint of the economic cost of water.  In other words,
WPA's estimates are for the process design that would minimize
water to the point where minimizing water use would increase eco-
nomic cost, although it might be technologically feasible to re-
duce water requirements even further.  The WPA report should be
consulted for a description of how estimates were calculated.

     Data on the consumptive use of water by energy-related popula-
tion increases are based on actual per capita consumption rates in
communities included in the six site-specific scenarios.  For the
eight-state regional scenario, a rate of 150 gallons per capita
per day is used.

     Localized impacts on water availability were identified by
relating the consumptive use of water to local surface and ground-
water availability.  Basin-wide impacts on water availability were
identified by relating total water requirements for facilities and
population to total instream flows and current withdrawals.

     The local water quality impacts of energy development were
identified by relating development activities, such as construction
and mining, to the local conditions.  The land and aquifer distur-
bances, changes in runoff, and effluents resulting from these
activities were analyzed.

     Water availability analyses were conducted both at local and
regional levels.  Water quality changes were addressed mainly with
respect to local sites, but some emphasis was placed on regional
problems as well.  The data necessary to evaluate the effects of
specific facilities under various hydrologic conditions are being
generated by a number of research projects currently underway.
     1 See White, Irvin L.,  et al.  Energy From the West:  Energy
Resource Development Systems Report"!  Washington,  D.C . :  U.S . , En-
vironmental Protection Agency,forthcoming.

     2Gold, Harris, et al.   Water Requirements for Steam-Electric
Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United
States.Washington,D.C.:U.S.,Environmental Protection Agency,
1977.

                                 164

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II.2.3  Social and Economic Analyses

A.  Population, Schools, and Housing

     Population impacts resulting from energy developments were
estimated using the economic base or export-base model.-  This model
distinguishes between export-oriented or basic employment and local
service-related or nonbasic employment.1  The driving assumption
for regional impact analysis is that basic employment is the im-
petus for growth, to which the regional economy responds.  This
response takes the form of additional employment in the nonbasic
sector and is known as the multiplier effect.

     In this study, employment multiplier values were chosen from
studies of each site-specific locality, and population multipliers
were derived from empirical results in the West,2 discounting for
working spouses  (especially in service jobs).  Populations were
distributed in each local region, taking major local trade centers
into account.

     Both housing and school enrollment impacts were derived from
local age-sex distributions.  The 1970 age-sex structure was pro-
jected by aging surviving cohorts and adding newly arrived em-
ployees and their families, generally conforming to the age struc-
tures reported in the Construction Worker Profile.3  Housing de-
mand was assumed to approximate the number of males ages 20 and
over in the local population.  This is an aggregate approach which
is intended to balance male dependents and single female households,
School enrollment estimates assume that the 6-13 age group is ele-
mentary school age and the 14-16 age group is secondary school age.
These result in enrollment underestimates of up to 20 percent in
some cases but reflect the relative sizes expected fairly closely.

B.  Materials and Equipment

     The demand for industrial output for western energy develop-
ment was examined only at the regional level using the Strategic


     1 An alternative for economic base analysis is to focus on in-
come, thereby defining the basic sector as that which brings income
into the community.  The definition of sectors is more difficult
when income is used but provides a better framework for regions
where nonwage income is important (e.g., retirement communities).
For a comprehensive presentation of the model, see Tiebout,
Charles M.  The Community Economic Base Study.  New York, N.Y.:
Committee for Economic Development, 1962.

     2Mountain West Research.  Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report.  Washington, D.C.:  Old West Regional Commission,1976.

     3Ibid.

                                165

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Environmental Assessment System (SEAS).1  The SEAS is an input-
output model of the national economy.   Three runs were performed
and compared:

   • A "Nominal Dirty" case which closely parallels the
     Nominal Development case of the Stanford Research
     Institute (SRI)  model.  One major exception was a
     higher level of oil shale development:  4.2 million
     barrels/day by 2000 rather than 2.5 million;

   • A "Nominal Clean" case with the same scale of energy
     development but more strict environmental controls;

   • A "Low Growth" case with the "dirty" or lax environ-
     mental control assumptions but a slower rate of western
     energy development than in the Nominal cases.

     The sector-by-sector2 comparison of Nominal Dirty and Low
Growth indicates which industries'  rates of output are most sensi-
tive to varying levels of western energy development.  Comparison
of Nominal Dirty and Nominal Clean indicates which industries will
be most involved in producing pollution control materials and
equipment.  Moreover, this latter comparison also provides, via
SEAS Residuals Generation module, independent estimates of quan-
tities of pollutants on a regional basis, for comparison with fig-
ures derived by the Science and Public Policy (S&PP)  study team.

C.  Financial Resources

     For the site-specific analyses, fiscal impacts were examined
by combining data on the sources of revenue with data on projected
capital and operating expenditures at the city and county level.
Sources of revenue included those associated with the energy fa-
cilities and the increased population.  Tax rates and the kind of
applicable taxes varied by site in accordance with state and local
policy, but in general, the taxes considered included a property
tax, sales tax, severance tax, energy conversion tax, and royalty
payments on federally owned energy resources.  Capital expenditures
were projected for schools and sewage and water utilities using the
population projections.  Both revenues and expenditures were pro-
jected as a function of time in accordance with the timing of en-
ergy development and population increases to obtain projections of
          , Richard H., Project Officer.  A Description of the SEAS
Model.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,
October 1977.

     2 SEAS divides the economy into 185 sectors.

                                166

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deficits and surpluses.  Bechtel's Energy Planning Model1 was the
source of the capital cost data for energy facilities; these capi-
tal cost data were used to estimate the property tax revenue gen-
erated by the energy facilities.

     For the regional analysis, the same capital cost data were
used in conjunction with the number of plants projected to come
on-line each year in order to obtain the total investment costs
for all plants for each year.  In calculating return cash flow,
it was assumed that each facility would return its investment2
over a 30-year period at a 10 percent real discount ratio.  Depre-
ciation plus one-fourth of net income was assumed available to the
firm for further investment, and that constituted the "return cash
flow."

II. 2.4  Ecological Methodology

     As the first step in analyzing the ecological impacts of each
scenario, a detailed characterization of the existing ecosystem
was  prepared.   The background information gathered for the sce-
narios included:  identifying presently operating limiting factors
(e.g., rainfall, winter storms, etc.); identifying major natural
or manmade stresses (e.g., periodic drought, sagebrush eradication,
grazing); obtaining assessments of recent population trends for
selected species of wildlife and relating them to known stresses
(e.g., declining sharptail grouse populations because of habitat
destruction by farming); mapping vegetation types throughout the
scenario area; and mapping critical habitat for game and nongame
species for which information is available  (e.g., critical winter-
ing areas, breeding, or mating display areas).

     Analyzing the impacts of energy development on this dynamic
baseline involved interpreting the direct and indirect effects on
the availability and quality of habitat of the impacts found in
the air, water, and social and economic analyses.  This, in turn,
required a general analysis of secondary changes in land-use pat-
terns brought about by increasing populations.  Specifically, areas
likely to receive heavy pressure from backcountry recreationists
(hikers,  campers, fishermen, etc.)  and from offroad vehicle use
were identified, as well as areas vulnerable to strip development,
recreational or second-home developments, and siting of new roads
and highways.  These land-use projections were based largely on
input from responsible planning agencies, interpreted in the light
of recent trends and values.  In some scenarios, Changes in


     LCarasso, M., et al.  The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols.
San Francisco, Calif.:Bechtel Corporation, 1975.  These data were
converted to 1975 dollars.

     2Including allowances for funds during construction which were
not included in total capital requirements.

                                167

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forestry practice and expansion of cropland, concurrent with but
independent of energy development, are taken into consideration
as they can substantially affect both terrestrial and aquatic com-
munities.  Working maps of forecast land-use changes were prepared
to aid in evaluating the cumulative impact of energy-related
stresses superimposed on other changes taking place within the
same time period.

     In preparing the assessments presented in the following chap-
ters, all factors were quantified within reasonable limits.  Sce-
nario land requirements and secondary land-use changes were inter-
preted in terms of the relative amounts of affected habitat avail-
able in the scenario, and the location of areas were mapped as
critical habitats.  Impacts on livestock grazing were calculated
on the basis of available estimates of range capacity.  With-
drawals of water from rivers and streams were compared with re-
corded flows, although in no case were data appropriate to quan-
tifying critical flow needs available.  SO2 ground-level concen-
trations were compared with published data on the sensitivity of
affected plant species.  However, the final conclusions as to the
meaning of these impacts in conjunction with less quantifiable
effects were based on technical judgment and the opinion of active
professionals in the field.

     Finally, the cumulative ecological impact of each scenario was
summarized in terms of expected population trends for selected wild-
life and fish species.  Species evaluated included those of eco-
nomic or recreational importance, rare or threatened species, and
indicators of ecological change.  An apparent bias throughout the
scenarios toward game animals results not from an intent on the
part of the investigators but because there frequently was insuf-
ficient information to do more than generalize about nongame forms.

II.3  INTERACTIONS AMONG CATEGORIES OF IMPACTS

     Although separated for purposes of analysis, impact categories
obviously interact with and thus affect one another.  For example,
population increases may generate increased air emissions, which
in turn may affect health and the delivery of health services.
When appropriate, the analyses reported in the following chapters
attempt to take these interactive relationships into account by
introducing an impact from one category into the analysis of an-
other category of impacts.  A final section in each of the follow-
ing chapters summarizes impacts and identifies the technological
and locational factors which can cause significant variations in
impacts.
                                168

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                           CHAPTER 4

       THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE
                   KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE AREA


4.1  INTRODUCTION

     The Kaiparowits/Escalante area of southern Utah is shown in
Figure 4-1.  Hypothetical energy resource development proposed in
this area  (Kane and Garfield counties) includes underground coal
mining, mine-mouth electrical power generation, and export of
electrical power via extra-high voltage  (EHV) transmission lines
to Arizona, California, and elsewhere in Utah.1  The location of
these facilities is shown in Figure 4-2.

     The impacts of two 3,000 megawatt-electric (MWe) generating
plants, one located near Escalante and one near Kaiparowits, and
of the associated coal mines are evaluated separately; and a sce-
nario which calls for construction of both facilities is analyzed.
In the scenario, construction of the first 3,000 MWe generating
plant began during 1975.  The first plant will come on-line in
1983 and the second in 1987.  Development of the coal mines to
supply these plants began in 1976, and full production is sched-
uled for 1987.  Details on Kaiparowits/Escalante coal, technolog-
ical alternatives, and the scenario development schedule are sum-
marized in Table 4-1.  In all four impact sections of this chap-
ter  (air, water, social and economic, and ecological), the factors
that produce impacts are identified and discussed for each mine
and power plant.  In the air and water sections, impacts caused
by those factors are discussed for each mine-power plant combina-
tion and for the scenario which includes both mines and power
plants constructed according to the scenario schedule.  In the
social and economic and ecological sections, only the impacts of
the scenario are discussed.  This distinction is made because so-
cial, economic, and ecological effects are, for the most part,

     1While this hypothetical development closely parallels facil-
ities proposed by Southern California Edison, San Diego Gas and
Electric, and Arizona Public Service (now cancelled)  and the Inter-
mountain Power Project in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area,  it must
be stressed that the development identified here is hypothetical.
As with the others, this scenario was used to structure the assess-
ment of a particular combination of technologies and existing
conditions.

                               169

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Topography, in feet
      Above 9000 A Towns
      7000-9000
      5000-7000
      4000-5000
      3000-4000
 FIGURE  4-1:   KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE AREA OF SOUTHERN UTAH
                                  170

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FIGURE 4-2:  THE LOCATION OF HYPOTHESIZED ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
             FACILITIES IN THE KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE AREA
                             171

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higher order impacts.  Consequently, facility by facility impact
discussions would have been repetitive in nearly every respect.

     The Kaiparowits/Escalante area is generally characterized by
a low population density, low average income, majority affiliation
with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints  (Mormon),
and a predominant sentiment in favor of developing the area's re-
sources.1  The physical environment is characterized by limited
seasonal precipitation, a topography which changes from bench-
lands in the South to mountains in the North, and vegetation
which changes from desert shrubs in the South to pinyon-juniper
woodlands and coniferous forests at higher elevations in the
North.

     A major influence on the area's economy has been the exten-
sive federal ownership of land, particularly of recreation-
oriented lands such as national parks.2  During the summer there
are frequently many more tourists in the area than permanent
residents.  As a result, the major sectors of economic activity
are government, wholesale and retail trade, and services.  Ranching
is the major agricultural activity.  Industrial development has
been very limited.3

     Groundwater and surface water are available in the area, the
latter primarily from the Colorado River and Lake Powell.  Air
quality in the area is excellent, the major present pollutant being
blowing dust.

     Descriptive characteristics of the area are summarized in
Table 4-2.  Elaborations of these characteristics will be intro-
duced as they are required to explain the impact analyses reported
in this chapter.
          for example Myhra, David.  "Fossil Projects Need Siting
Help Too."  Public Utilities Fortnightly, Vol. 99 (September 29,
1977),  pp. 24-28.

     2These include Bryce Canyon, Zion, Canyonlands, and Capitol
Reef National Parks, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, and
Dixie and Kaibab National Forests.

     3U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
"Local  Area Personal Income."  Survey of Current Business, Vol.
54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75.

                                173

-------
          TABLE 4-2:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF THE
KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE AREA
 Environment
   Elevation
   Precipitation

   Air Stability
   Vegetation
      4,000-7,000 feet
      6-10 inches annually in the south
        20 inches annually in the north
      Frequently prolonged winter stagnation
      Salt desert shrub in the south;
        pinyon pine-juniper in the north
 Social and Economic
   Land Ownership
     Federal
     State
     City and County
     Private
   Population Density
   Unemployment
     Kane County
     Garfield County
   Income
            87   %
             8   %
             = .01%
             5   %

      0.7 per square mile
             7   %
            15   %
      $2,900 per capita annual
- - approximately
a!970 data, Garfield and Kane Counties.
b!974 data.
4.2  AIR IMPACTS1

4.2.1  Existing Conditions

A.  Background Pollutants

     Air quality in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area is currently
affected by the Navajo power plant located near Page, Arizona
(Figure 4-1) .   Measurements of concentrations of criteria
          federal standards referred to in this section are those
promulgated prior to the revisions mandated by the Clean Air Act
Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685.
                               174

-------
pollutants,1  (shown in Table 4-3) taken prior to  1975 indicated
nitrogen dioxide  (NOa) and sulfur dioxide  (S02) below detection
thresholds of the monitoring equipment.2  However, 24-hour parti-
culate concentrations, ranging from 1 to 543 micrograms per cubic
meter  (ug/m3), violate federal ambient standards  during high winds
due to blowing dust.  Based on measurements taken at Page, Arizona,
from 1970 to 1974, the annual average background  levels chosen as
inputs into the air dispersion model are:  particulates, 20; S02/
10; N02, 4; oxidants  (ozone), 60.4

B.  Meteorological Conditions

     The terrain in the Kaiparowits plateau area  of southern Utah
is topographically complex.  Mesas, plateaus, mountains, hills,
canyons, and basins complicate air flow and pollutant dispersion.
This terrain can contribute to pollution concentrations which ap-
proach ambient standards from both elevated and ground-level emis-
sion sources.5  Highest concentrations will occur when a plume
     1 Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air qual-
ity standards are in force:  carbon monoxide  (CO), nonmethane
hydrocarbons  (HC), oxides of nitrogen, oxidants, particulates,
and SOa•  Although technically only nonmethane HC are covered by
the standards, the more inclusive term "hydrocarbons" is generally
used.

     2Dames and Moore.  Air Quality Monitoring and Meteorology,
Navajo Generating Station--1974, Status Report, March 15, 1975, as
cited in U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Manage-
ment.  Final Environmental Impact Statement:  Proposed Kaiparowits
Project, 6 vols.  Salt Lake City, Utah:  Bureau of Land Management,
1976; and Walther, E.G., et al.  Air Quality in the Lake Powell
Region, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin No. 3.  Los Angeles,
Calif.:  University of California, Institute of Geophysics and
Planetary Physics, 1974.

     3BLM.  FEIS:  Kaiparowits.

     "These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's best
professional judgment.  They are used as the best estimate of the
concentrations to be expected at any particular time.  Measure-
ments of HC and CO are unknown.  But high background levels of
HC have been measured at other rural locations in the West and
may occur here.  Background CO levels are assumed to be relatively
low.

     5Elevated sources are tall stacks that emit pollutants several
hundred feet above ground.  Ground-level sources include towns,
strip mines, and tank farms that emit pollutants close to ground
level.

                               175

-------
 TABLE  4-3:
AIR QUALITY  MEASUREMENTS  AT  PAGE,  ARIZONA
 (micrograms  per cubic  meter)
POLLUTANT
AVERAGING TIME
Particulate
Annual


24-hourd


S02
Annual

24-hourd


3-hourd

NO 2
Annual

Oxidants
l-hourd
YEAR

1972
1973
1974
LEVEL
DAMES & MOOREb

29
27
28
ARIZONA0

31
52
46
Ranged from less than 1 to 543 yg/m3 .
High concentrations primarily due to
soil dust.3

1973
1974
1970 to 1974
1973
1974
1973
1974

1973
1974

1972


NA
NA
26
NA
NA
39
68

NA
NA

84


1
8
NA
11
22
NA
NA

10
24

NA
AMBIENT
STANDARDS3
PRIMARY

75


260



80

365


NA


100


160
SECONDARY

60


150



NA

NA


1,300


100


160
ug/ra' = micrograms per cubic meter
SO? = sulfur dioxide
                       NA  = not available or applicable
                       NO2 = nitrogen dioxide
aThe Ambient  Standards listed are the most stringent of either federal or
state.   For Utah,  no state ambient air quality  standards are more stringent
than the federal ones.  See White, Irvin L. ,  et al.  Energy From the West:
Energy Resource Development Systems Report.   Washington, D.C.:  U.S., En-
vironmental Protection Agency, forthcoming, Chapter 2.

 Data from Dames and Moore.  Air Quality Monitoring and Meteorology, Navajo
Generating Station--1974, Status Report, March  15, 1975, as cited in U.S.,
Department of the  Interior, Bureau of Land Management.  Final Environmental
Impact Statement:   Proposed Kaiparowits Project,  6 vols.Salt Lake City,
Utah:Bureau of Land Management,1976.

°Data from Arizona, Department of Health Services, Bureau of Air Quality
Control, as cited  in BLM.  FEIS:  Kaiparowits.

 Not to be exceeded more than once a year.
                                   176

-------
impacts1 on elevated terrain during stable conditions and when
mixing of plumes is limited by air inversions at the plume height.
Worst-case dispersion conditions are associated with stable con-
ditions, low mixing depths,2 persistent wind direction, and low
wind speeds (less than 10 miles per hour).  The frequency with
which these conditions occur varies locally.

     Meteorological conditions in the area are generally unfavor-
able for pollution dispersion  (i.e., they are stable) about 43
percent of the time.  More favorable, unstable conditions are ex-
pected to occur about 20 percent of the time.  However, these un-
stable conditions can contribute to localized, short-term concen-
trations due to erratic plume movement  (plume looping).

4.2.2  Factors Producing Impacts

     The primary air emission sources in the Kaiparowits/Escalante
scenario are two power plants, supporting underground mines, and
the population which is projected to increase.  The  focus of this
section is on emissions of criteria pollutants from  the energy
facilities.3  The largest of these sources are the four 750 mega-
watt boilers at each power plant site.

     Table 4-4 displays the emissions of five criteria pollutants
from one 3,000 MWe power plant.  The data assume that the stack
gas scrubbing systems remove 99 percent of the particulates and
80 percent of the S02 in the coal and that the power plant is
operating at full load.  Comparison of emission rates (on a per
million British thermal unit  [Btu] basis) with New Source Perform-
ance Standards'*  (NSPS), also given in Table 4-4, indicates that a
power plant with this level of control will more than meet NSPS
for particulates and SO2.  To just meet NSPS, no S02 removal and
98.6 percent particulate removal would be required.  If scrubbers
remove none of the oxides of nitrogen (NO )  generated in the
     1 Plume impaction occurs when stack plumes impinge on elevated
terrain because of limited atmospheric mixing and stable air con-
ditions .

     2Mixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upper
boundary of pollution dispersion.

     3Air impacts associated with population increases are dis-
cussed (Section 4.2.3) as those  impacts relate to the scenario
which includes all facilities constructed according to the hypoth-
esized schedule.

     "*NSPS limits the amount of  a given pollutant a stationary
source may emit; the limit is expressed relative to the amount of
energy in the fuel burned.

                                177

-------
       TABLE  4-4:
COMPARISON OF EMISSIONS FROM ONE 3,000
MEGAWATT POWER PLANT WITH NEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS

POLLUTANT
Particulates
SO 2
N0x
CO
HC

POUNDS PER HOUR3
2,100
5,800
15,000-25,000
1,400
420
POUNDS PER 10 6 Btu's
EMISSION
0.07
0.19
0.50-0.83b
NA
NA
NSPS
0.1
1.2
0.7
NA
NA
                                      NO.. =
                     x   nitrogen oxides
                   CO = carbon monoxide
                                      NA = not available or
                                           not applicable
NSPS = New Source Performance
       Standards
Btu = British thermal unit
S02 = sulfur dioxide
                   HC = hydrocarbons
o
 These data assume that the power plant is running at
full load with 99 percent particulate removal and 80
percent S02 removal.

 NO  range assumes 0 percent and 40 percent removal
by scrubber.
boiler, then NO  emissions will violate the NSPS.1  The minimum
NO  removal to just meet NSPS is 16 percent.2  In addition to
those criteria pollutants emitted from each power plant, the
75,000 barrel storage tank at the plant, with standard floating
roof construction, will emit up to 0.7 pounds of hydrocarbons  (HC)
per hour.

     The power plants are cooled by wet forced-draft cooling towers.
Each cell circulates water at a rate of 15,300 gallons per minute
(gpm) and emits 0.01 percent of its water as a mist.  The circula-
ting water has a total dissolved solids (TDS) content of 7,120 parts
per million (ppm).  This results in a salt emission rate of 45,300
pounds per year for each cell (each power plant has 64 cells).


     *The amount of NO  that scrubbers remove is uncertain; esti-
mates range from none to 40 percent.

     2The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91  Stat.
685, § 109 require both an emissions limitation and a percentage
reduction of S02, particulates, and NOX.  Revised standards have
not yet been established by the Environmental Protection Agency.
                               178

-------
     Emissions from the underground coal mines are expected to be
negligible.  However, emissions will originate from coal piles,
breaking and sizing operations, and transportation at the mines,
even though dust suppression (water spray)  will be used.1

4.2.3  Impacts

     This section describes air quality impacts which result from
each power plant taken separately2 and from a scenario which in-
cludes the predicted impacts of both plants.  For each power plant
the effect on air quality of alternative stack heights, alternative
emission control, and alternative plant sizes and locations is de-
scribed.  Interactions between facilities and impacts caused by
the expected population increase are included in the scenario im-
pact discussion.  The focus is on concentrations of criteria pol-
lutants (particulates, S02, N02, HC, and carbon monoxide [CO]).
See Chapter 10 for a qualitative description of sulfates, other
oxidants, fine particles, long-range visibility, plume opacity,
and cooling tower fogging and icing.

A.  Power Plant Impacts

     Although construction processes may increase windblown dust,
no other air quality impacts are associated with the construction
of a power plant.  Since periodic violations of 24-hour ambient
particulate standards already occur due to blowing dust, the fre-
quency of those violations can be expected to increase during
power plant construction.

     The majority of air quality impacts result from the operation
of a power plant and depend on the degree of emission control im-
posed.  Concentrations resulting from a base case, where control
equipment is hypothesized to remove 80 percent of the SC-2 and 99
percent of all particulates, are discussed first, followed by a
discussion of the effect on ambient air concentrations of alter-
native emission controls, alternative stack heights, alternative
plant sizes, and alternative plant locations.
     1 The effectiveness of current dust suppression techniques is
uncertain.  Separate research being conducted by the Environmental
Protection Agency is investigating this question; a discussion of
fugitive dust problems is given in Chapter 10.

     2Air quality impacts caused by the underground mines are ex-
pected to be negligible in comparison with impacts caused by the
power plants.  However, the impact of fugitive dust originating
from mines is uncertain and is discussed qualitatively in Chap-
ter 10.

                               179

-------
 (1)  Hypothesized Emission Control

     Tables 4-5 and 4-6 summarize the concentrations of four pol-
lutants predicted to be produced by the hypothesized plants at
Kaiparowits and Escalante (both 3000 MWe,  80 percent SOa removal,
and 99 percent particulate removal).  Federal primary and secon-
dary ambient air quality standards which regulate these pollutants
directly1 and Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) incre-
ments which regulate the pollutants indirectly2 are also included
in the tables.

     As the tables indicate, both typical and peak concentrations
associated with either power plant are below ambient standards.
Ambient standards are not exceeded in the immediate vicinity of
the power plants or in the nearby towns of Glen Canyon City and
Escalante.  The Kaiparowits power plant meets all allowable Class
II increments, but the Escalante plant exceeds Class II increments
for 24-hour particulates, 24-hour SOa, and 3-hour SOa-  Both
plants violate all Class I increments except for annual particu-
lates .

     Since these plants exceed Class I increments, they must be
located far enough away from Class I areas to allow emissions to
be diluted by atmospheric mixing to the low concentrations allowed
by Class I increments.  The distance required for this dilution
varies by facility type, size, emission controls, and meteorolog-
ical conditions.  In effect, this requirement establishes a "buffer
zone" around Class I areas.3

     Due to the complex terrain in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area,
no one buffer zone size for potential Class I PSD areas can be


     Primary standards are designed to protect public health; sec-
ondary standards are designed to protect public welfare.

     2PSD increments are allowable increments of pollutants which
can be added to areas of relatively clean air; that is, to areas
with air quality better than that allowed by ambient air standards.
They apply only to particulates and S02.  There are three classes
of increments.  Class I increments are intended to protect the
cleanest areas such as national parks and are the most restrictive.
A Class II designation is for areas which have moderate, well con-
trolled energy or industrial development and permits less deterior-
ation than that allowed by federal secondary ambient standards.
The Environmental Protection Agency initially designated all PSD
areas Class II and established a petition and public hearing pro-
cess for redesignating areas Class I or Class III.

     3Note that the term buffer zone is in disfavor.  We use it
because we believe it accurately describes the effect of PSD re-
quirements .


                               180

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defined.  However, the 3-hour S02 increment for Class I areas may
be exceeded in Bryce Canyon National Park, located about 25 miles
to the west1 (Figure 4-3).  Other nearby areas which have recently
been designated Class I include Zion, Capitol Reef, Grand Canyon,
and Canyonlands National Parks.

(2) Alternative Emission Controls

     The base case control for the Kaiparowits/Escalante power
plants assumed an SOa scrubber efficiency of 80 percent and an
electrostatic precipitator (ESP)  efficiency of 99 percent.  The
effect on ambient air concentrations of three additional emission
control alternatives is illustrated in Table 4-7.  These alter-
natives include a 95 percent efficient S02 scrubber in conjunction
with a 99 percent efficient ESP,  an 80 percent efficient S02
scrubber without an ESP, and alternatives in which neither a
scrubber nor an ESP is utilized.

     An examination of Table 4-7 reveals that removal of particu-
late control results in significant violations of National Ambient
Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)  for 24-hour and annual total sus-
pended particulates (TSP)  at both planes.  Removal of the S02
scrubber at Escalante results in violations of all Class II PSD
increments for S02 emissions and NAAQS for 3-hour and 24-hour S02
emissions.  Removal of the S02 scrubber at Kaiparowits also results
in violations of all Class II PSD S02 emission increments and the
NAAQS 24-hour S02 emission standard.  The Escalante power plant
can meet Class II PSD increments with 95 percent S02 removal, but
not with 80 percent S02 removal.

(3) Alternative Stack Heights

     In order to examine the effects of alternative stack heights
on air quality in the Kaiparowits/Escalante scenario, worst-case
dispersion modeling was carried out for a 300-foot stack (lowest
stack height consistent with good engineering practice), a 500-
foot stack  (an average or most frequently used height),  and a
1,000-foot stack  (a highest stack height).  The results of this
analysis are shown in Table 4-8.   Emissions on each power plant
are controlled by an 80 percent efficient S02 scrubber and a 99
percent efficient ESP; the 500-foot case was given previously as
part of the base case.

     A comparison of data in Table 4-8 with NAAQS indicates that
the Kaiparowits power plant could operate well within the NAAQS
S02 and TSP standards with a 300-foot stack.  The Escalante power
plant would violate the 3-hour S02 NAAQS with a 300-foot stack.
     JThis estimate is based on the Radian Corporation's best pro-
fessional judgment.

                               183

-------
   Existing Roads
   National Park or Recreation Area
FIGURE 4-3:
AIR  IMPACTS  OF ENERGY FACILITIES  IN THE
KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE SCENARIO
                            184

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     For the more stringent Class II PSD standards, the Escalante
plant would violate all standards with both a 300- and a 500-foot
stack, but would meet Class II increments with a 1,000-foot stack.
The Kaiparowits power plant would meet all Class II PSD increments
with a 300-foot stack.

(4) Alternative Plant Sizes

     Because the base-case Escalante power plant in this scenario
is expected to violate PSD Class II increments, even with 80 per-
cent S02 removal and 99 percent particulate removal, the effect of
alternative plant sizes was also analyzed; the results are given
in Table 4-9.  The Escalante plant would be able to meet all PSD
Class II increments only if generation capacity were reduced from
3000 MWe to 750 MWe.  At 1500 MWe, the plant violates 24-hour S02
and 24-hour TSP Class II PSD increments.

(5) Alternative Plant Locations

     The complex terrain at the proposed Escalante site aggravates
violations of Class II PSD increments during periods of plume im-
paction on that terrain.  Thus, the effect of relocating the plant
to a site where the terrain at and around the plant is flat was
examined.  A site along the ridge of the Kaiparowits Plateau to
the southwest of the original Escalante site was used for flat
terrain modeling.  Table 4-10 shows that relocation of the power
plant to flat terrain would result in compliance with all Class
II PSD increments (assuming a 500-foot stack height, 80 percent
SOz removal, and 99 percent removal of particulates).

(6) Summary of Power Plant Air Impacts

     The frequency of current violations of the NAAQS particulate
standards at the Kaiparowits/Escalante site will probably increase
during the construction phase of the power plants  (due to blowing
dust).  Once the plants are in operation, the 3000 MWe plant at
Kaiparowits (80 percent S02 removal, 99 percent TSP removal, 500-
foot stack height) would meet Class II PSD increments, the most
stringent of applicable standards.  The Escalante plant under the
same stack height and emission control assumptions, would violate
several Class II PSD increments.  For that plant, all Class II PSD
increments could be met by:  increasing stack height to 1,000 feet;
relocating the plant to flat terrain; or reducing plant capacity
from 3,000 MWe to 750 MWe.

B.  Scenario Impacts

     This section discusses air quality impacts that may occur
because of interactions between the two power plants and those
that result as the population increases according to the manpower
demands of the construction and operation schedule.
                               187
-------
TABLE  4-9:
                       AIR  QUALITY  IMPACTS RESULTING  FROM
                       ALTERNATIVE  PLANT  SIZES  AT ESCALANTE
                       POWER PLANT
UNIT SIZE
(MWe)
750



NO. OF
UNITS
1
2
3
4
PLANT
CAPACITY
(MWe)
750
1500
2250
3000
APPLICABLE STANDARDS
NAAQS
(primary)
(secondary)
Class II PSD increments
MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION (yg/m3)
3-HR. S02
266
532
798
1060
1300
512
24-HR. SO 2
73
147
220
293
365
91
24-HR. TSP
26.2
52.5
78.8
105.0
260
150
37
yg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter
MWe = megawatt-electric
HR. = hour
S02 = sulfur  dioxide
                           TSP = total  suspended particulates
                           NAAQS = National Ambient Air Quality
                                   Standards
                           PSD = prevention of significant
                                 deterioration
   TABLE 4-10:   AIR  QUALITY  IMPACTS RESULTING FROM RELOCATING
                  THE  ESCALANTE POWER PLANT  FROM  A COMPLEX TO  A
                  FLAT TERRAIN3
TERRAIN CASE
Complex
Flat
MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION (yg/m3)
3-HR. SO 2
1060
242
24-HR SO 2
293
37.7
24-HR. TSP
105
13.5
           yg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter
           HR.  = hour
           S02  = sulfur dioxide
           TSP  = total suspended particulates

           aStack height is assumed to be 500 feet, 80 percent  S02
           removal,  99 percent TSP removal, 3000 megawatt-electric.
                                    188
-------
 (1) To 1980

     Neither hypothetical power plant is scheduled, in this hypoth-
esized scenario, to be in operation in this time period.  The  sce-
nario calls for construction of the Kaiparowits plant beginning  in
1975 and of the Escalante plant in 1979.  Few air quality impacts
are caused by the construction itself; however, population increases
will be substantial and concentrated in towns, including the Kaipar-
owits new town to be built north of Glen Canyon City, Utah.  By
1980, this town is projected to have a population of approximately
S^SO.1  Increased emissions from a town this size are expected  to
result in concentrations of particulates, EC, CO, SC-2 , and NC>2 only
slightly higher than current background levels.  Automobiles are a
primary source.

 (2) To 2000

     The Kaiparowits power plant becomes operational in 1983 and
the Escalante plant in 1987 (22 miles apart).  No additional facil-
ities are hypothesized for this scenario through the year 2000.
Interaction of pollutants between these two plants may occur if  the
wind blows directly from one plant to the other.  Effective concen-
trations were investigated for a worst-case situation where one
plant was located 5 miles downwind from the other under flat terrain
conditions.  Maximum pollutant concentrations at 5 miles separation
distance violate neither NAAQS nor Class II PSD increments.*   Thus,
short-term concentrations of criteria pollutants resulting from  the
interaction of plumes between the two plants would be less than  that
caused from one plant by plume impaction on high terrain.

     When both plants are operating, visibility is expected to de-
crease from the current average of 70 miles at Navajo Point to 63
miles.   In a worst-case situation, expected to occur infrequently,
short-term visibilities could be reduced to between 4 and 9 miles,
depending on the amount of S02 converted to particulates in the
atmosphere.3


     1 See Section 4.4 for population projections.

     2Calculated maximum pollutant concentrations from the inter-
action of Kaiparowits and Escalante power plants at a separation
distance of 5 miles include:  3-hr. S02, 392; 24-hr. SOa, 64;  and
24-hr.  TSP, 22.8.   Maximum concentrations of S02 and TSP were cal-
culated using existing modeling runs for flat terrain conditions.

     3Short-term visibility impacts were investigated using a  "box-
type" dispersion model.  This particular model assumes that all
emissions occurring during a specified time interval are uniformly
mixed and confined in a box that is capped by a lid or stable layer
aloft.   A lid of 500 meters was used.   The effect of SOa to sulfate
conversion rates of 10 percent and 1 percent were modeled.

                                189
-------
     The Kaiparowits new town is expected to increase in population
from 3,350  (1980) to 6,940 by 1990 and 7,290 by 2000.  This will
contribute to increases in pollution concentrations due solely to
urban sources.  Table 4-11 displays predicted 1990 concentrations
of five criteria pollutants measured in the center of the town and
at. a point three miles from the center of town.1  When concentra-
tions from urban sources are added to background levels and to
concentrations from the power plant (Tables 4-5 and 4-6), the HC
levels exceed ambient standards.2  No other standard is approached
by these concentrations.

     Current PSD increments are designed to restrict pollution from
large point sources (e.g., power plants), not from urban sources
(e.g., automobiles).  If the same PSD criteria were applied to
urban sources that are currently applied to industrial sources,
population increases in the Kaiparowits new town would violate PSD
increments for particulates (Table 4-11).

     Concentrations of HC over Kaiparowits, which may be three
times higher than the federal standard by the year 2000, are also
likely to create an oxidant problem.  Since oxidants may take as
much as an hour to form, this problem will be less when wind con-
ditions move pollutants rapidly away from the town.

C.  Other Air Impacts

     Nine additional categories of potential air impacts have been
examined; that is, an attempt has been made to identify sources of
pollutants and how energy development may affect levels of these
pollutants during the next 25 years.  These include sulfates,
oxidants, fine particulates, long-range visibility, plume opacity,
cooling tower salt deposition, cooling tower fogging and icing,
trace element emissions, and fugitive dust emissions.3  Although
there are likely to be local impacts as a consequence of these
pollutants, both the available data and knowledge about impact
mechanisms are insufficient to allow quantitative site-specific
analyses.  Thus, these are discussed in a more general, qualita-
tive manner in Chapter 10.
     Concentrations in the year 2000 will be about 5 percent
higher than for 1990.

     2Ambient HC standards are violated regularly in most urban
areas.

     3No analytical information is currently available on the source
and formation of nitrates.  See Hazardous Materials Advisory Com-
mittee.  Nitrogenous Compounds in the Environment, U.S., Environ-
mental Protection Agency Report No. EPA-SAB-73-001.  Washington,
D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1973.

                               190
-------
TABLE  4-11:   POLLUTION  CONCENTRATIONS  DUE  TO  URBAN
                 SOURCES AT KAIPAROWITS  NEW TOWN  IN  1990
                 (micrograms  per  cubic meter)
POLLUTANT
AVERAGING TIME
Particulates
Annual
24-hour
SO 2
Annual
24-hour
3-hour
N02d
Annual
HC
3-hour
CO
8-hour
1-hour
CONCENTRATIONS a
BACKGROUND

20
20

10
10
10

4

unknown

unknown

MIDTOWN
POINT0

16
54

8
27
48

26

481

1,606
2,632
RURAL
POINT

4
54

2
27
48

6

481

1,606
2,632.
STANDARDS*3
PRIMARY

75
260

80
365


100

160

10,000
40,000
SECONDARY

60
150



1,300

300

160

10,000
40,000
SO2 = sulfur dioxide
NO2 = nitrogen dioxide
HC = hydrocarbons
CO = carbon  monoxide
 These concentrations  are predicted ground-level concentrations from
urban sources.   Background concentrations  are  taken from Table 4-4.
"Rural points"  are measurements taken 3 miles  from the center of town.

 "Primary" and  "secondary" are federal ambient air quality standards
designed to protect  the public health and  welfare, respectively.  In
no case are Utah ambient air quality standards more stringent than
federal ones.   See White, Irvin L., et al.   Energy From the West:
Energy Resource Development Systems Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency,forthcoming,  Chapter 2.

GThe 1980 concentrations are predicted to  be only slightly higher  than
background. Concentrations in 2000 will be  about 5 percent higher
than 1990.

 It is assumed  that  50 percent of oxides of  nitrogen from urban sources
are converted to NO2.
                               191
-------
4.2.4  Summary of Air Impacts

     Two new 3000 MWe power plants are hypothesized in the Kaiparo-
wits/Excalante region.  Particulate standards are already periodi-
cally violated in the region due to blowing dust; mining and power
plant construction activities would aggravate that problem.

     In order to just meet NSPS for particulates and SOa each
power plant would require 98.6 percent particulate removal but no
SC>2 removal.  However at that level of control, the Escalante
plant would violate one primary and two secondary federal ambient
standards, and both plants would exceed several Class II PSD incre-
ments.  If no N0x is removed by the scrubber systems, the NSPS for
NOX will be violated; at least 16 percent of the NO  produced in
the boiler must be removed if emissions are to meet NSPS.  Ambient
air standards for NOX can be met by both plants if no NO  is
removed.

     With the hypothesized emission control (80 percent S02/ 99
percent particulate) and a 500-foot stack, neither plant would
violate any federal ambient air standards; the Kaiparowits plant
would not exceed any Class II increments; but the Escalante plant
would exceed several short-term Class II increments.  The Esca-
lante plant causes violations primarily because it is hypotheti-
cally located in complex terrain where plume impaction occurs.

     The Kaiparowits plant can meet Class II increments if the
stack height were only 300 feet.  The Escalante plant can meet
Class II increments for S02 by increasing SOz scrubber efficiency
to 95 percent.  It can meet Class II increments for both SO 2 and
particulates by increasing the stack height to 1000 feet, relo-
cating the plant to flat terrain, or by decreasing plant capacity
from 3000 MWe to 750 MWe.

     Class I PSD increments would be violated by both plants, and
a Class I buffer zone size cannot be established due to the com-
plex terrain in the area.  The closest Class I area where viola-
tions might occur is Bryce Canyon National Park  (25 miles).

     If both plants are built, visibility will'be reduced at Nava^jo
Point from 70 miles to 63 miles  (on the average).  In a worst-case
situation, occurring infrequently, short-term visibilities could
be reduced to between 4 and 9 miles.  Even if the plants are spaced
closer than the distance hypothesized (22 miles) plume interactions
would not violate NAAQS or Class II increments  (assuming both are
located on flat terrain).  Population increases in the Kaiparowits
new town will add to pollution problems.  Concentrations from
urban sources are expected to violate the NAAQS for HC by 1990.
If PSD increments were applied to urban sources, the Class II
particulate increment would be violated.
                                192
-------
4.3  WATER IMPACTS

4.3.1  Introduction

     Surface water from Lake Powell will be the major water source
for energy development in the Kaiparowits/Escalante region  (see
Figure 4-4).  Precipitation in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area
ranges from 6 to 10 inches per year in the southern areas to 20
inches in the Escalante mountains to the north.  Annual snow fall
ranges from 12 to 24 inches.1

     This section identifies the sources and uses of water re-
quired for each power plant, the residuals that will be produced,
and the water availability and quality impacts that are likely to
result.

4.3.2  Existing Conditions2

A.  Groundwater

     Three aquifer systems are present in the Lake Powell area:
small alluvial aquifers in deposits along rivers and streams;
perched aquifers3 in the coal-bearing Straight Cliffs geologic
formation; and a regional aquifer in the deep Navajo Sandstone.

     Alluvial aquifers are located in sand and gravel strata below
valley stream beds.  The water table in these shallow aquifers is
generally less than 100 feet below the surface.  The aquifers
generally discharge into streams and are recharged by the streams
and by underflow from perched aquifers.  While the groundwater
quality is generally good (depending on stream quality), the quan-
tity of water available from alluvial aquifers is quite small.

     The perched aquifers in the Straight Cliffs Formation, the
formation in which the minable coal is located, are in sandstone
bodies that are generally small and erratically distributed in
shale.  Water yields vary from less than 1 to about 50 gpm.


     *The moisture content of 1 inch of rain is equal to approx-
imately 15 inches of snow.

     2Available data for describing the natural ground and surface
water conditions in the area are sketchy.  The primary data source
is the environmental impact statement prepared for the proposed
Kaiparowits coal-fired power plant.  U.S., Department of the Inter-
ior, Bureau of Land Management.  Final Environmental Impact State-
ment:  Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols.  Salt Lake City, Utah:
Bureau of Land Management, 1976.

     3Perched aquifers are small, usually localized aquifers that
are above the true water table.

                               193
-------
  Existing Roads

 = Water Line and Pumping Station
 Navaho
~> Plant
FIGURE 4-4:   WATER SUPPLIES AND PIPELINES  FOR  THE
               KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE  SCENARIO
                            194
-------
These shallow aquifers are recharged by direct infiltration of
precipitation, and discharge is from seeps and springs.  The
water in these aquifers, which is relatively poor quality  (TDS
range around 1,000 milligrams per liter, [mg/£] ) , is used by
livestock and wildlife.

     The most important regional aquifer is located in the Navajo
sandstone at a depth of 1,000 to 2,000 feet in the vicinity of the
hypothetical power plants.  This aquifer is not presently being
used in the Kaiparowits area.  At lower elevations along Wahweap
Creek where the aquifer is quite shallow, wells yield from several
hundred to more than 1,000 gpm.  Recharge of this regional aquifer
is in the area of sandstone outcrops, and most of the discharge
is probably into Lake Powell.  The quality of the groundwater in
the aquifer varies from fresh to slightly saline  (up to 3,000
mg/£) .

     Although groundwater is used exclusively by some of the area's
inhabitants, it is high in hardness and exceeds several of the
recommended limits set for drinking water as shown in Table 4-12.

B.  Surface Water

     The only major perennial river in the Kaiparowits area is the
Colorado River.  Glen Canyon Dam, which forms Lake Powell, is
located 16 miles up the Colorado River from Lee Ferry,1 the offi-
cial division between the Upper and Lower Colorado River Basin,
and 5 to 10 miles downstream from the scenario site.  At the nor-
mal water surface elevation, Lake Powell extends 186 miles up the
Colorado River and 71 miles up the San Juan River.

     The lake operates under the criteria established by the Sec-
retary of the Interior to control flows in the Colorado River at
Lees Ferry to meet conditions of the Colorado River Compact.2
For hydroelectric power generation, a minimum pool elevation must
be maintained.  Normal releases are approximately 10 percent of
the cumulative 10-year flow required by the Colorado River Compact
(75 million acre-feet) plus an allocation of Upper Basin flow
assumed to be required by treaty with Mexico.3  This totals a


     *Lee Ferry, the designated division point on the river is
located near the town of Lees Ferry, Arizona.

     2Colorado River Compact of 1922, 42 Stat. 171, and 45 Stat.
1064, declared effective by Presidential Proclamation, 46 Stat.
3000 (1928).

     3Treaty between the United States of America and Mexico Re-
specting Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers
and of the Rio Grande, February 3, 1944, 59 Stat. 1219 (1945),
Treaty Series No. 994.

                               195
-------
      TABLE  4-12:
GROUNDWATER QUALITY  DATA FOR  KAIPAROWITS
SCENARIO




SUBSTANCE
Arsenic
Barium
Cadmium
Chloride
Chromium
Copper
Cyanide
Fluoride
Iron
Lead
Mercury
Nitrate
Selenium
Silver
Sulfate
Zinc
Dissolved Solids

nRTNKTNr1 WATFR
U l\ J. IV Pi -L L>t vj VlrtXEjIx
RECOMMENDED
LIMITS3
(mg/n
0.05
1.0
0.01
250. Od
0.05e
1.0d
No Standard
1.4-2.4^
0.3d
0.05
0.002
10. Oh
0.01
0.05
250. Od
5.0d
500. Od
NAVAJO SANDSTONE AQUIFER

SAMPLE
WELL |19
(mg/8,)



140.0



0.4
0.03

j
0.531




1,060.0
SAMPLEb
WELL 120
(mg/i)



16.0




1.40


0.3J




292. 0
STRAIGHT CLIFFS FORMATION

DRILL0
HOLE 12
(mg/«,)
0.002
0.05
0. 01

0.02f
0.03
0.005


0.13
0.001

0.001


0. 5

DRILLC
HOLE #10
(mgA)
0.003
0.05
0.05

0.42f
0.42
0.005


0.58
0.001

0.005


4.98

mg/8, = milligrams per liter

aU.S., Environmental Protection Agency.   "National  Interim Primary Drinking Water Regu-
lations."  40 Fed.  Reg.  59566-88 (December  24,  1975).  These regulations also include
standards for turbidity,  organic chemicals,  and microbiological contaminants.

 U.S., Department of the  Interior,  Bureau of Land Management.  Final Environmental Im-
pact Statement:   Proposed Kaiparowits  Project,  6 vols.  Salt Lake City, Utah:  Bureau
of" Land Management,  1976, p.  11-147.

clbid., p. 11-149.

dU.S., Environmental Protection Agency.   "National  Secondary Drinking Water Regulations."
Proposed Regulations.   42 Fed.  Reg.  17143-47 (March 31, 1977).

eAs chromate (Cr+6).

 Total chromium.

eFluride standard varies  according  to  the annual average of the maximum daily air temper-
ature for the location in which the community water system is situated.  The lowest level
is for temperatures above 26.3° Centigrade  (C), and the highest level is for temperatures
below 12°C.

 Measured as nitrogen.

1Nitrate  (NOD  + nitrite  (N07)  as nitrogen.

^Nitrate  (NOD-
                                        196
-------
release of approximately 8.25 million acre-feet per year  (acre-
ft/yr).  Basic storage and water quality data for Lake Powell are
presented in Table 4-13.  Water quality data can be compared to
typical industrial boiler feed water quality requirements which
are also shown.

     The estimated 1975 surface water supply and uses in Utah's
portion of the Colorado River are shown on Table 4-14.  Irrigation
is the largest water use.  If both power plants are built, as
called for in this hypothetical scenario, power generation water
usage will be increased by a factor of 10 but will still be less
than 20 percent of the volume used for agriculture.

     The local surface water system directly affected by the
Kaiparowits/Escalante energy development also includes several
ephemeral and intermittent streams.  Flow in these streams is
generally the result of cloudbursts that occur frequently in late
summer.  The mean annual runoff for these streams is as follows:1

             Stream                        Acre-ft/yr2

         Warm Creek                           1,000
         Wahweap Creek                        2,000
         Last Chance Creek                    2,800
         Escalante River                     12,900

Peak flood flows in these creeks can be considerable.  For example,
where Coyote and Wahweap Creeks come together, flows have a 50
percent probability of attaining 2,000 cubic feet per second (cfs)
once every two years.

     Water quality in these ephemeral and intermittent streams has
been sampled.   Although the antecedent conditions were not reported,
values for estimated flow and TDS during May 1974 were:3
     ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.
Final Environmental Impact Statement:  Proposed Kaiparowits Project,
6 vols.   Salt Lake City, Utah:  Bureau of Land Management, 1976,
Chapter 2, p. 2-156.

     20ne thousand acre-ft/yr corresponds to 1.38 cubic feet per
second.

     3BLM.  FEIS;  Kaiparowits,  p. 2-157.

                              197
-------
             TABLE 4-13:
STORAGE AND WATER QUALITY
DATA FOR LAKE POWELL
PARAMETER
Minimum power pool elevation
Maximum water level
Dead storage
Active storage below minimum
power pool elevation
Active storage above minimum
power pool elevation
POLLUTANT
Dissolved solids
Calcium
Magnesium
Sodium
Potassium
Carbonate
Bicarbonate
Chloride
Sulfate
Dissolved Oxygen
VALUE
3,490 feet above mean sea level
3,711 feet above mean sea level
1,998,000 acre-feet
4,126,000 acre-feet
20,876,000 acre-feet
WATER QUALITY3
(mg/£)
MINIMUM
475.0
58.4
21.7
60.3
3.5
0.0
107.0
38.0
197.0
4.0
MAXIMUM
677.0
85. 0
29.8
93.8
5.1
23.1
182.0
70.3
281.0
10.1
TYPICAL
BOILER
FEED WATER
(mg/£)
< 10.10
0.10
0.03
0.24
< 0.01

< 0.01
< 10.00
0.14

mg/£ = milligrams per liter
                         < = less than
 Water Quality Data from USGS Sampling Station No. 1, Colorado
River Channel above Mouth of Wahweap Creek, unpublished, 1974,
1975.

 American Water Works Association, Inc.  Water Quality and Treat-
ment, 3rd ed.  New York, N.Y.:  McGraw-Hill, 1971, p. 510, Table
16-1.  Some numbers derived from Table 16-1, assuming concentra-
ting factor = 100, high pressure drum type boiler.
                               198
-------
 TABLE 4-14:  ESTIMATED 1975 SURFACE-WATER RESOURCES
              AND USES FOR UTAH IN THE UPPER COLORADO
              RIVER BASIN
              (1,000 acre-feet)
Average Annual Water Supply
Utah's estimated share of Upper
Colorado River flow3
Estimated 1975 Usesb
Irrigation
Municipal and Industrial Including Rural
Minerals
Thermal Electric
Recreation and F&WL
Other
Reservoir Evaporation
Estimated Exports
Total Depletions
Net Available for Use
1,322
521
7
9
8
8
118
194
112
977
346
F&WL = Fish and Wildlife

aAssumes 5.8 million acre-feet per year available for
use in the Upper Colorado River Basin, of which Utah
is entitled to 23 percent.

 U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclama-
tion.   Westwide Study Report on Critical Water Problems
Facing the Eleven Western States.Washington,D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1975, pp. 374-75.
                          199
-------
                                                      Total
                                                    Dissolved
                                    Flow             Solids
     	Stream	            (cfs)              (mg/&)	

     Wahweap Creek                   1.0              2,140
     Warm Creek                   very low           4,710
     Last Chance Creek            very low           3,520
     Escalante River                 2.6              1,150*

     Under the Upper Colorado River Basin Compact,2 Utah is en-
titled to 23 percent of the water allocated to the Upper Basin
after 50,000 acre-ft/yr is deducted for Arizona.  Primarily be-
cause of variations in calculated values for total flow and the
portion of the Mexican Treaty which may be allocated to the Upper
Basin, Utah's share of the Upper Basin water is uncertain.  The
Department of the Interior's Water for Energy Management Team
estimates that the Upper Basin states have about 5.8 million acre-
ft/yr to divide among themselves.  This would entitle Utah to
1,322,500 acre-ft/yr.

4.3.3  Factors Producing Impacts

     The water requirements of and effluents from the energy facil-
ities will cause water impacts.   These requirements and effluents
are identified in this section for each type of energy facility.
Associated population increases  also increase municipal water de-
mand and sewage effluent;  however, these are presented in Section
4.3.4 only for the scenario which includes both power plants and
associated coal mines constructed according to the scenario sched-
ule .

A.  Water Requirements of Energy Facilities

     The water requirements for  energy facilities hypothesized in
the Kaiparowits/Escalante region are shown in Table 4-15.  Two
sets of data are presented.  The Energy Resource Development Sys-
tem  (ERDS) Report data are based on secondary sources, including
impact statements, Federal Power Commission (FPC) docket filings,
     1From U.S. Geological Survey Water Resource Data, transformed
from specific conductance measurement to TDS using Hem, John D.
Study and Interpretation of the Chemical Characteristics of Natural
Water,  2nd ed., U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 1473.
Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1970, Figure 10.

     2Upper Colorado River Basin Compact of 1948, Pub. L. 81-37,
63 Stat. 31 (1949).

                                200
-------
          TABLE 4-15:  WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR ENERGY
                       FACILITIES AT KAIPAROWITS
                        (acre-feet per year)
    TECHNOLOGY'
   ERDS
WET COOLING
                                            WPA
                                    COMBINATIONS OF WETC
                                       AND DRY COOLING
 HIGH WET
INTERMEDIATE WET
 Power Generation
   Kaiparowits
   Escalante
   29,400
   29,400
  29,816
  29,816
      9,481
      9,481
                     Cost range in which  indicated cooling
                          technology is most economic
                         (dollars  per thousand  gallons)
   Power Plant
    NC
< 3.65-5.90
   >3.65-5.90
ERDS = Energy Resource Development System     <
WPA = Water Purification Associates           >
NC = no change
                             = less than
                             = greater than
 These values assume an annual load factor of 75 percent.

 White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West;  Energy Re-
source Development Systems Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.

°Gold, Harris, et al.  Water Requirements for Steam-Electric
Power Generationand Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western
United StateiTWashington,D.C.:U.S.,Environmental Protec-
tion Agency, 1977.

 Combinations of wet/dry cooling were obtained by examining
the economics of cooling alternatives for the turbine con-
densors.  In the high wet case, the turbine condensers are
all wet cooled; in the intermediate case, wet cooling handles
10 percent of the load on the turbine condensors and dry
cooling handles 90 percent.
                             201
-------
and recent published data accumulations,1 and can be considered
typical requirement levels.  The Water Purification Associates
data are from a study on minimum water use requirements and take
into account certain opportunities to recycle water on site as
well as the moisture content of the coal being used and local
meteorological conditions.2  As Table 4-15 indicates, the volume
of water needed for each 3,000 MWe coal-fired power plant in the
Kaiparowits/Escalante scenario is estimated at more than 29,800
acre-ft/yr, assuming wet cooling (the high wet cooling ca'se on
Table 4-15) .   If some dry cooling is used (the intermediate wet
case on Table 4-15), water requirements could be reduced to 9,481
acre-ft/yr, a savings of 69 percent for each power plant.  From
an economic standpoint, the decision of which cooling technology
to use depends upon the availability and price of water.  If water
costs less than $3.65 to $5.90 per thousand gallons, high cooling
would be the most economically attractive.  If water costs more
than $3.65 to $5.90 per thousand gallons, intermediate cooling
would be the most attractive alternative.  If water costs only
$0.25 per thousand gallons and intermediate cooling is used to
conserve water, the added costs of electricity will be 0.1 to 0.2
cents per kilowatt hour.

     Figure 4-5 indicates the manner in which the water require-
ment for a 3,000 MWe power plant at Kaiparowits or Escalante will
be used.  As  indicated, the greatest amount of water will be con-
sumed for cooling.  Water for solids disposal and other uses (e.g. ,
flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and mine dust control) consume about
2,000-3,000 acre-ft/yr depending on which estimates are used.

     The water required for mining (from 1800 to 3300 acre-ft/yr)
includes that for dust control (35 percent) , coal washing (58 per-
cent) , service, fire, sanitary, and potable water (6 percent),  and
for revegetation of coal refuse (1 percent).

     As shown in Figure 4-4, water intakes are to be located at
Warm Creek for the Kaiparowits plant and in the flooded portion of
          White, Irvin L. ,  et al.  Energy From the West:  Energy
Resource Development Systems Report.  Washington, B.C.:  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.  These ERDS Reports
are based on data drawn from University of Oklahoma, Science and
Public Policy Program.  Energy Alternatives;  A Comparative Analy-
sis .   Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1975; Radian
Corporation.  A Western Regional Energy Development Study, Final
Report, 3 vols .  and Executive Summary.  Austin, Tex.:  Radian
Corporation, 1975.

     2Gold, Harris, et al.   Water Requirements for Steam-Electric
Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United
States .  Washington, B.C.:   U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,
I9~77.

                               202
-------
           Q)
           >H
           -P
           m
           i
           (U
           !-l
           U
           o
           o
           o
           -H
  FIGURE 4-5:
                 30 _
                 25
                 20
  15
  10
           ERDS
                                    WPA-H






Cool
Ev
Solids
WPA-I

.
                                                     Evaporation
                                       and Other
                                  Power
                                Generation
                                (3,000 MWe)
WATER CONSUMPTION FOR A 3,000 MEGAWATT-ELECTRIC
POWER PLANT AT KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE,  UTAHa
ERDS = Energy Resource Development  System
WPA-H = Water Purification Associates-High Wet Cooling
WPA-I - Water Purification Associates-Intermediate Wet Cooling

 The ERDS data is from White, Irvin L.  et al.   Energy From the
West:  Energy Resource Development  Systems Report.   Washington,
D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,  forthcoming.  The
WPA data is from Gold, Harris, et al.   Water  Requirements for
Steam-Electric Power Generation  and Synthetic  Fuel Plants in the
Western United State's^  Washington,  D.C. :  U.S. ,  Environmental
Protection Agency, 1977.
                               203
-------
the Escalante River at Willow Creek for the Escalante plant.
Groundwater resources are not sufficient to meet the needs of the
energy facilities.

     Lake Powell is the designated source of surface water for the
hypothetical energy development called for at the Kaiparowits site.
To obtain the necessary water for energy development, the devel-
oper must acquire a water right from the state of Utah or purchase
water from the holder of an existing water right and must enter
into a contract with the Department of the Interior if water is to
be drawn from the lake rather than from a naturally flowing water-
course within Utah.

B.  Effluents from Energy Facilities

     When operating at full capacity, each 3,000 MWe power plant
in the Kaiparowits/Escalante scenario will produce more than 9,700
tons of solid effluents per day, including more than 70 tons of
dissolved solids, 1,250 tons of dry solids, and 8,350 tons of wet
solids.  Table 4-16 shows the rate of solid effluent per day for
a single power plant.

     Dissolved solids are present in the ash blowdown effluent,
the demineralizer waste effluent, and the FGD effluent.1  The
principal, dissolved constituents of wastewater which appear are
calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate, and chlorine.

     Wet solids from electric power plants are in the form of flue
gas sludge, bottom ash, and cooling water treatment and waste
sludge.  Bottom ash is primarily oxides of aluminum and silicon.
Calcium carbonate  (CaCOa) and calcium sulfate (CaSOi*) are the pri-
mary constituents of flue gas sludge.  The cooling water treatment
waste sludge is primarily CaCOa.  The amount of cooling water
treatment waste is very small, compared to the bottom ash and flue
gas sludge.  Dry solid waste produced by power plants is primarily
fly ash composed of oxides of aluminum, silicon, and iron.

     The water in the effluent stream accounts for 6 percent of
the total water requirements of each power plant.  Dissolved and
wet solids are sent to evaporative holding ponds and later
     ^emineralization is a method of preparing water for use in
boilers producing an effluent composed of chemicals present in the
source water.  The bottom ash stream is the water used to remove
bottom ash from the boiler.  Bottom ash removal is done via a wet
sluicing system using cooling tower blowdown water.  Thus, the dis-
solved solids content of that stream is composed of chemicals from
the ash and cooling water.

                               204
-------
            TABLE 4-16:   EFFLUENTS FROM  COAL CONVERSION
                          PROCESS  AT KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE'
FACILITY
Electric Power
(3000 MWe)
SOLIDS (tons per day)
DISSOLVED
73.5
WET
8,368
DRY
1,274
TOTAL
9,715.5
WATER IN EFFLUENT0
(acre-feet per year)
1,898.9
MWe = megawatt-electric
o
 These data are from Radian Corporation.  The Assessment of Residuals Disposal
for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western
United States, EPA Contract No. 60-01-1916.  Austin,  Tex.:  Radian Corpora-
tion, 1978.  The Radian Corporation report extends and is based on earlier
analyses conducted by Water Purification Associates and reported in Gold,
Harris, et al.  Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and
Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, 1977

 These values are given for a day when the facility is operating at full load.
In order to obtain yearly values, these numbers must  be multiplied by 365 days
and by the average load factor which is assumed to be 70 percent for power
plants.  The values given as solids do not include the weight of the water in
which the solids are suspended or dissolved.
Q
 The values  for water discharged are annual and take  into account the load fac-
tor.  In order to obtain daily water discharge rate for a day when the facility
is operating at full load, divide the yearly value by 365 days and by the load
factor of 70 percent.  The 1,898.9 acre-feet per year are equivalent to 1.7
million gallons per day.
deposited in  landfills.   Dry solids are  treated with water  to pre-
vent  dusting  and deposited in a  landfill.1

4.3.4  Impacts

      This section describes water impacts  which result from the
underground mines, limestone quarries, and two 3,000 MWe power
plants  and from a scenario which includes  construction of these
facilities according  to  the hypothesized scenario  schedule.   The
water requirements and impacts associated  with expected population
increases are also included in the scenario impact description.
           environmental  problems  associated with solid waste  dis-
posal  in holding ponds  and landfills are  discussed  in Chapter 10.
                                   205
-------
A.  Underground Mine and Limestone Quarry Impacts

     The construction and operation of an underground coal mine
impact both groundwater and surface water.  Construction of the
mine openings may intersect some of the perched aquifers contained
in the coal formation.   As mining proceeds and mines are expanded,
additional perched aquifers will be intersected.  As a result, the
groundwater flow patterns of these aquifers will be disrupted and
local springs and seeps, important as water supplies for wildlife
in the area, may dry up.  To the extent that subsidence occurs,
the resulting fractures in the overburden may, in turn, further
disrupt the flow in perched aquifers.  A potential effect of such
flow disruption is the  mixing of water from fresh and saline aqui-
fers .

     Runoff during mine operation is expected to be higher than
during preconstruction  conditions, and mine subsidence may change
the patterns of surface drainage.  This, in turn, affects wild-
life and livestock watering locations.

     The mining activities associated with one power plant will
consume from 1,800 to 3,300 acre-feet of water per year.  While
this is not a large quantity relative to the requirements of the
power plant, it nevertheless would not be available for other uses.

     After mining ceases, there will be continuing surface topo-
graphic changes due to subsidence, and the land that has been tem-
porarily revegetated (with application of water in excess of nat-
ural rainfall) may lose vegetation and erode.

     The limestone quarry required for one power plant will require
about 2 acre-feet of water per year.  While groundwater is assumed
to be the source of this water, its use may conflict with existing
local water rights.  Blasting disrupts groundwater flow and may
cause nearby springs to dry up.  Ponds created by quarry operations
may trap surface water rather than release it to the surface
streams in the area, resulting in reduced flows.

B.  Power Plant Impacts

     Construction activities at a power plant site will remove
vegetation and disturb the soil.  These activities affect surface
water quality by increasing the sediment load in local runoff.
This sediment loading of local creeks will be temporary, however,
since retention facilities will trap runoff and direct it into the
evaporation ponds after the plant begins operating.  The equipment
used during construction will require maintenance areas and petro-
leum products storage facilities.  Areas for the storage of other
construction-related materials, such as aggregate for a concrete
batch plant, will also be required.  All of these facilities con-
stitute potential sources of contaminants in runoff.  Runoff


                                206
-------
control methods call for channeling runoff from all of these
sources to a holding pond for settling, reuse, and evaporation.
Because the supply of water to this pond is intermittent, most of
the water will probably evaporate.  Water that does not evaporate
may be used for dust control.

     At the Kaiparowits site, the aggregate used in construction
will come from alluvium that is also part of the shallow aquifer
in the upper Wahweap Creek Canyon.  Removal of that aggregate will
reduce the storage capacity of the aquifer by approximately 200
acre-feet and create a pond, which may discharge into Wahweap
Creek.  Evaporative water loss from this pond will decrease the
downstream groundwater supply.  The likelihood of contamination
of both the groundwater and surface water will be increased by
livestock and wildlife use of the pond.

     Electric generating facilities at both Kaiparowits and
Escalante will cover land normally a part of the natural ground-
water recharge system.  Each plant will remove about 240 acres
from natural runoff contributions, because of runoff control de-
vices around critical areas and losses by catchments such as ponds,
Removal of this amount of land will reduce recharge capacity by
48 acre-ft/yr which is about 0.12 percent of the total recharge
capacity in the Kaiparowits Plateau.1

     Fuel tanks at both sites will be surrounded by a berm de-
signed to contain spills.  In the event of a spill, fuel oil will
saturate the ground within the bermed area and the soluble frac-
tions could eventually enter the perched groundwater system and
come out in unknown concentrations in springs and seeps.

     A 65 acre emergency reservoir at each site will be lined to
reduce natural pond leakage.  Some leakage will occur and enter
the groundwater system where it will recharge the local perched
aquifers and provide additional water to downstream seeps and
springs.

     Some increased erosion of creek banks could occur where the
water supply pipelines bridge creek beds.  This impact can be
avoided if banks are stabilized.  Some additional creek bed ero-
sion might occur due to increased pressure at the pipeline bridges
during flood flows.

     As noted previously, most of the water used by each power
plant complex will come from Lake Powell.  As indicated in Table
4-15, each 3,000 MWe plant  (high wet cooled)  will use more than


     ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.
Final Environmental Impact Statement:  Proposed Kaiparowits Pro-
ject, 6 vols.  Salt Lake City, Utah:  Bureau of Land Management,
1976.

                                207
-------
29,800 acre-ft/yr, equivalent to 2.2 percent of Utah's share of
the Upper Colorado River allocation.  Since it is either consumed,
evaporated in the cooling tower, or ponded, withdrawal of the
water will, of course, mean that this water will no longer be
available to other users in the Upper Colorado River Basin  (UCRB).

     The evaporation ponds are used as a final disposal site for
the natural salts that occur in the power plant water supply and
thus in its effluent.  Concentration of salts in these ponds will
be high, approximately 100,000 to 200,000 mg/£.  Thus, as these
salts infiltrate through the pond liner into the groundwater sys-
tem, they might, depending upon quantities and aquifer character-
istics , raise the TDS of the water and make the water unfit for
consumption by humans and, possibly, for livestock and wildlife
as well.  Springs and seeps fed by this contaminated groundwater
could subsequently affect surface-water systems.

     Water leaching from the ash disposal pond could enter the
surface water system by migrating laterally along the low per-
meability mudstone to the canyon walls.  As noted earlier, this
water will contain trace toxic materials.  The concentrations
that reach the surface water are presumed small, but the trans-
port mechanism for some of these materials through groundwater is
unknown.

     There will be no significant local surface water impacts
directly from plant effluents because there will be no off-site
discharge of effluents.  The surface water flow volume to local
streams will be reduced slightly as rainfall is trapped in the
on-site waste retention ponds and by the associated runoff reten-
tion facilities.

     After the plants are decommissioned, these ponds will remain.
Unless the berms around the ponds are properly maintained, they
may lose their protective vegetation, erode, and breach.  Subse-
quently, the materials within the pond site will erode and enter
the groundwater and surface water systems.  Although Lake Powell
is the original source of the salt materials in the evaporation
ponds, the eventual reentry of the salt to the lake could affect
local bottom organisms if salt concentrations are sufficiently
high.  Similarly, the addition of trace materials and solids from
the ash disposal and tailings ponds can have an adverse effect.

C.  Scenario Impacts

     This section discusses water impacts that may occur because
of interactions between the two power plants and those that result
as the population increases according to the manpower demands of
the construction-operation schedule.
                               208
-------
     Table 4-17 shows the water requirements of the population
expected if both plants are built.   An estimated 10,753 acre-
feet of water will be needed annually for the new town.  This un-
usually high water demand is caused by the new town development
plan which calls for extensive greenbelts and park facilities to
attract necessary personnel to the area.2

     Rural water demands will be met by individual wells that pro-
bably will not significantly affect the local aquifer.  Municipal
water requirements will be supplied by groundwater pumped from a
well field in the Navajo Sandstone.  Most of this withdrawal will
probably be from bank storage of Lake Powell, so this source should
be as reliable as the water supply of the lake.  If it can be
demonstrated that the groundwater used is part of Lake Powell bank
storage,3 the water will be considered Colorado River water and
may be subject to the legal constraints of the applicable compacts.
Also, existing local groundwater users could be affected by the
new town's well field.  These legal conflicts would have to be
resolved before a new water right could be issued.

     It is assumed that the rural population will use individual
on-site waste disposal facilities  (septic tanks and drainfields)
and that waste treatment facilities will be required in urban
areas.  The wastewater generated by the population increase expec-
ted if both power plants are built is shown in Table 4-18.

     Current treatment practices in Escalante and Panguitch con-
sist entirely of septic tanks and drainage fields.  Kanab has a
two stage 0.2 million gallon per day  (MMgpd) trickling filter oper-
ating at about 0.17 MMgpd.  As a result of the increased popula-
tions, it is likely that municipal sewage treatment facilities will
need to be built in Escalante and Panguitch as well as the new town.
New facilities should use best practicable waste treatment tech-
nologies in order to conform to 1983 standards and should allow
recycling or zero discharge of pollutants to meet 1985 goals.1*
The 1985 standard could be met by using effluents for industrial
process make up water or for irrigating local farmland.

      Population increases from secondary industries are not in-
cluded in these estimates.

      2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.
Final Environmental Impact Statement:  Proposed Kaiparowits Pro-
ject, 6 vols.  Salt Lake City, Utah:  Bureau of Land Management,
1976.

      3Some water migrates into the banks of the lake and is stored
there, hence the term "bank storage."

      ^Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, Pub.
L. 92-500, 86 Stat. 816 § 101, 301; 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311
(Supp. 1976).

                               209
-------
            TABLE 4-17:
EXPECTED WATER REQUIREMENTS
FOR INCREASED POPULATION
INCREASED WATER REQUIREMENT ABOVE 1975 LEVEL
(acre-feet per year)
YEAR3
1980
1990
2000
KANABa
21.0
63.0
70.0
PANGUITCHb
17.5
105.0
140.0
ESCALANTE3
7.0
567.0
588.0
PAGE3
84
476
574
KAIPAROWITS
NEW TOWN0
1,770
10,266
10,753
 Based on 125 gallons per capita per day.

 Based on 313 gallons per capita per day - Panguitch City Clerk.

°Based on 790 gallons per capita per day (approximately 125
gallons per capita per day for domestic use; 665 gallons per
capita per day for greenbelt irrigation).
             TABLE 4-18:
 EXPECTED WASTEWATER FLOWS
 FROM INCREASED POPULATION
INCREASED FLOW ABOVE 1975 LEVEL3
(million gallons per day)
YEAR
1980
1990
2000
KANAB
0.015
0.045
0.050
PANGUITCH
0.005
0.030
0.040
ESCALANTE
0.005
0.410
0.420
PAGE
0.27
0.66
0.73
KAIPAROWITS
NEW TOWN
0.05
1.16
1.22
1Based on 100  gallons  per capita per day.
(1)  To 1980

     Between the present and 1980, most activity will be centered
on construction related to opening the first coal mines and the
limestone quarry.  Construction of the power plant and new town
will also begin during this period.  However, most urban growth
during this period will be absorbed by existing communities, and
local groundwater systems will not be affected significantly.  As
Table 4-17 indicates, additional demands on surface-water supplies
                               210
-------
are small.  As Table 4-18 indicates, wastewater flows will increase
as a result of population increases from construction activities.
Existing facilities at Kanab should not be overloaded by this in-
crease.  Some surface water pollution may result from overloads
and/or bypasses unless existing wastewater treatment facilities
are expanded or new facilities built.

(2) To 2000

     Both power plants will be constructed and in operation by
1990.  In addition, ancillary activities, including coal mines
and quarries, will be in full operation.  The projected new town
will also be built and occupied.  These activities and facilities
have several potential impacts on groundwater and surface water.
No additional facilities are postulated beyond 1990; consequently,
water impacts are assumed to remain the same for 1990 to 2000.

     Combined mining activities will consume from 3,650 to 6,650
acre-feet of water per year and the power plants will consume
about 59,600 acre-ft/yr assuming they are high wet cooled (see
Table 4-13).  For perspective, this is equivalent to about 2.2
percent of Utah's share of the Upper Colorado River allocation.
It will not, of course, be available to other users in the UCRB.
In addition, removal of quantities in this range from Lake Powell
may have a salt-concentrating effect on the Colorado River.   The
Bureau of Reclamation (BuRec)  estimates that salt increase caused
by a project of similar size would be as much as 2.1 mg/£ at
Imperial Dam.  This increase would affect the agricultural users
of the water through lower crop yields, causing an estimated an-
nual loss of $230,000 per mg/£ of salt increases.1

     The combination of both plants will remove about 480 acres
from natural runoff contributions because of runoff control devices
around critical areas and losses by catchments such as ponds.  Re-
moval of this amount of land will reduce recharge capacity by 96
acre-ft/yr which is about 0.25 percent of the total recharge in
the Kaiparowits Plateau area.2

     The Kaiparowits new town will be located over a part of the
recharge area of the Navajo Sandstone aquifer.  Total sewage from
the proposed new town will be approximately 1.22 MMgpd.  Sewer pipes

     xUtah State University, Utah Water Research Laboratory.  Colo-
rado River Regional Assessment Study, Part 1, Executive Summary,
Basin Profile and Report Digest, for National Commission on Water
Quality.  Logan, Utah:  Utah Water Research Laboratory, 1975, p. 2.

     2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.
Final Environmental Impact Statement:  Proposed Kaiparowits Pro-
ject, 6 vols.  Salt Lake City, Utah:  Bureau of Land Management,
1976.

                               211
-------
to collect the raw sewage will be placed in the permeable sandstone
above the aquifer, and leaks in the pipes could result in ground-
water pollution.  If the solid waste disposal site for the new
town is placed on the recharge zone, additional pollution could
take place unless special precautions are taken.

     As noted earlier, under present law, effluents from the sewage
treatment plant may discharge to surface water until 1985.
Effluents from the sewage treatment plant are assumed to be used
in irrigated agriculture after 1985.  If the treatment facility
is operated properly, there should be no significant pollution
from this practice.

     Runoff will be increased by the construction of the new town
by about 1,100 acre-ft/yr.  This water will enter Wahweap Creek
during storm flows and subsequently flow into Lake Powell.

     Local water sources, such as springs and seeps, will be used
in the construction of access roads and highways.  This activity
will require virtually all the water available from these sources.
Highways and roads will increase runoff during storms with the
increased volume likely to drain into Lake Powell.

(3)  After 2000

     After the plants are decommissioned, the facilities will re-
main even though they are not operating.  The potential impacts
discussed earlier for each mine-power plant complex are compounded
by the presence of two complexes.  Two impact types are particu-
larly important in this postoperational phase:  subsidence and
pond dike failure.  Subsidence over the underground mines will
cause continuing topographic changes.  Erosion of the pond dikes
and subsequent release of salts and trace materials constitutes a
water pollution hazard over long time periods.

4.3.5  Summary of Water Impacts

     Water impacts are caused by:   (1) the water requirements of
and effluents from the energy facilities; (2) the water require-
ments of and wastewater generated by associated population in-
creases; and (3) the coal mining process itself.

     Assuming the power plants are high wet cooled, the total sur-
face water requirement for each plant will be 29,800 acre-ft/yr.
In combination, the surface water demand from Lake Powell, which
has an average annual release of 8.25 million acre-ft/yr, could
be as high as 59,600 acre-ft/yr.  The use of intermediate wet
cooling could reduce this demand by 69 percent.  During the life-
time of the power plants, the use of water from Lake Powell will
increase downstream salinity.
                               212
-------
     Effluents from each power plant averaging 1.7 MMgpd containing
9,700 tons of solids will be discharged into clay-lined, on-site
evaporative holding ponds.  Ponds may leak and increase the infil-
tration of pollutants from the ponds to the local groundwater.

     The groundwater requirement for the new town and other urban
and rural development could be as high as 12,000 acre-ft/yr,
assuming both complexes are built.  The water used for municipal
supplies may be reused as irrigation water.  The increased popu-
lation will cause wastewater increases, totaling 2.5 MMgpd by
2000.  The scenario municipalities which will probably require new
treatment facilities are Escalante, Panguitch, and the new town.

     The underground mining of 22.4 million tons of coal per year
(the amount required by both power plants) will likely cause un-
planned subsidence which will in turn affect surface water drain-
age and may affect groundwater flow patterns.  Changes in natural
flow in springs and seeps may change watering patterns for wild-
life and livestock.  Changes in runoff flows will occur as a re-
sult of vegetation removal, construction activities, and the
facilities themselves.  An increase in runoff is projected but it
will vary seasonally and from year to year.

     The physical impacts caused by the power plants and the facil-
ities associated with them will remain after the plants are de-
commissioned.  The subsidence effects, caused by underground mining
discussed above, are irreversible.  The limestone quarry will re-
main at the end of operations and will likely be filled with water
during some period of the year.  The alternative is a costly re-
contouring of the quarry site.  More important is the ultimate
destruction of the dikes around the evaporative holding ponds
which contain the salt, ash, trace materials, and scrubber sludge.
The likelihood of berm failure could be reduced if the dikes are
maintained, the contents are removed to a leakproof container, or
the ponds are drained, covered with soil, and revegetated.l  Main-
tenance of the dikes will not eliminate pond leakage, however, and
this is another potential long-term source of pollution.  Pond
liners will retard leakage but will not prevent it.  Over the life
of the plant, materials in the pond should not leach beyond the
outer boundary of the liner.  However, materials are likely,
eventually, to leach through the liner and into the soil below.2
     1 In some locations, it may be difficult to stabilize the areas
that have been refilled.

     2The environmental problems associated with solid waste dis-
posal in holding ponds and landfills are discussed in Chapter 10.


                                213
-------
4.4  SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS

4.4.1  Introduction

     As described above, the hypothetical development for Kaiparo-
wits/Escalante will occur in two counties of southern Utah:  Gar-
field and Kane.  Both are sparsely populated at present, but energy
development will change this.  Large numbers of workers, same
with families, will begin to move into the area when construction
of the energy facilities begins.  The establishment of a new town
near Glen Canyon City is part of the overall development in this
scenario.  The social and economic impacts that can be anticipated
will result either directly or indirectly from the rapid population
increase that will follow.

4.4.2  Existing Conditions

     Kane and Garfield Counties comprise 9,201 square miles and
in 1974 had a combined population of approximately 6,600 people.
This is a density of 0.7 persons per square mile.  Few roads
serve the area, and many of these are unpaved or unimproved.  No
railroads or airlines presently serve the two-county area.  Thus,
the Kaiparowits Plateau is  generally inaccessible, and any heavy
vehicle traffic would require substantial highway improvement and
construction.

     Except for a recent increase, mainly in Kane County (Table
4-19), the population of the area has been static or declining
for most of the past 35 years.   The increase in Kane County appears
to be related to the Navajo power plant just south of Glen Canyon
City and may be temporary.1

     Only the county seat of each county has a population over
1,000, Kanab in Kane County and Panguitch in Garfield County.
Both towns are located in the extreme western part of their respec-
tive counties.

     Very few people actually live in the Kaiparowits Plateau por-
tion of the two counties.  In fact, fewer than 700 people lived in
Kane County outside of established towns (Table 4-19).

     Ethnically, the area is quite homogenous;  there is no black
population and less than 1  percent are Indians.  As is common in
areas of the U.S.  in which  population is declining, young adults
have tended to leave to seek economic opportunities elsewhere.
     1Wistisen, M.J., and G.T. Nelson.  Kaiparowits Socio-Economic
Study.   Provo, Utah:  Brigham Young University, Center for Business
and Economic Research, 1973, p. 44.

                               214
-------
      TABLE 4-19:  POPULATION OF KANE AND GARFIELD COUNTIES
                   AND COUNTY SEATS, 1940-1974
LOCATION
Kane County
Kanab
Other towns
Garfield County
Panguitch
Other towns
Two County Total
1940
2,561
5,253
7,814
1950
2,299
4,151
1,435
6,450
1960
2,667
1,645
737
3,577
1,318
1,856
6,244
1970
2,421
1,381
661
3,157
1,318
1,570
5,578
1974a
3,300
1,550
700
3,300
1,350
1,600
6,600
     Source:  University of Utah, Bureau of Economic and
     Business Research.

      Estimated.
Net outmigration from Kane and Garfield Counties between 1960 and
1970 was 1,507 people.1

     Table 4-20 shows the distribution of employment by industry
in the two counties.  The local economy of the Kaiparowits area
is oriented more toward government, wholesale and retail trade, and
services than is the national average.  This is primarily because
of tourist attractions in the area  (including several national
forests and parks)  and a lack of major activity in other economic
sectors.  Agricultural activities in the area consist mainly of
sheep and cattle production.  Per capita income in the two-county
area remains less than 80 percent of the Utah average, itself only
82 percent of the U.S. average.2

     The Kaiparowits area was settled largely by Church of Jesus
Christ of Latter Day Saints  (Mormon) immigrants from other parts
of Utah.  Mormons still constitute the single largest religious
group in the area.3

     Bowles, Gladys K.,  Calvin L. Beale, and Everett S. Lee.  Net
Migration of the Population, 1960-70 by Age, Sex, and Color, Part
6:  Western States.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Department of Agri-
culture, Economic Research Service, 1975, pp. 74-75.

     2Kiholm, Janet.  "Personal Income in Utah 1970-75."  Utah
Economic and Business Review, Vol. 36 (June 1976), pp. 1-6.

     3Dotson, John L.  "Duel in the Sun."  Newsweek (October 27,
1975), p. 10.
                               215
-------
     Residents of the area are apparently overwhelmingly in favor
of energy development.  Southern Utah has lagged behind the rest
of the state economically, and residents would like an opportunity
to catch up — which is what energy development in this area seems
to offer.1  Further, economic opportunities would both help to
keep the young people from leaving southern Utah and to allow
relatives and friends to return.

     Both Kane and Garfield Counties are governed by three-member
boards of commissioners.  Governmental services in these counties
are limited; law enforcement is provided by two full-time law
officers in each county.  Both counties are serviced by joint
city/county volunteer fire departments.  Kane County has a planning
commission, but Garfield County does not.  Both counties have a
master plan, and although only Kane County currently has a zoning
ordinance, one is being drafted for Garfield County.  Public edu-
cation is provided by a single school district in each county.
Public health services in Kane County include maintenance of a
31-bed hospital in Kanab; a 28-bed county hospital is now under
construction in Panguitch to replace the old 16-bed facility there.
Physicians are not available elsewhere in the two counties.

     Panguitch is governed by a mayor and five councilmen.  Two
full-time policemen provide law enforcement, and the joint city/
county volunteer fire department provides fire protection.  Cur-
rently, the city has neither a professional city engineer nor a
planner.  However, the city owns and operates a water system and
has a zoning ordinance .

     Kanab, the seat of Kane County government, has a mayor and
five councilmen.  It employs three full-time policemen and, like
Panguitch, participates in a joint volunteer fire department ar-
rangement with the county.  Unlike Panguitch, Kanab has a licensed
city engineer.  It does not have a professional planner, but the
city does have a zoning ordinance.  Kanab has both a city-owned
and operated water and sewage treatment system, and an expansion
to the water system is now underway.  The other incorporated com-
munities in the two counties have no municipal water or sewer
systems .

     Overall, Kane and Garfield Counties and the two small towns
of Kanab and Panguitch appear to lack the resources necessary to
deal effectively with energy development in the area.  However,
the counties have been attempting to upgrade their capabilities,
particularly in planning.  Both counties and their county seats
also participate in Utah's system for intergovernmental planning
          U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Manage-
ment.  Final Environmental Impact Statement:  Proposed Kaiparowits
Project, 6 vols .   Salt Lake City, Utah:  Bureau of Land Manage-
ment, 1976, pp. A-710 to A-726.

                                216
-------
              TABLE 4-20:
EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION
IN KAIPAROWITS AREA, 1974
INDUSTRY
Total Civilian Work Force
Total Employed
Agriculture
Mining
Contract Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation and
Public Utilities
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance, and
Real Estate
Service and Miscellaneous
Government
All Other Nonagriculture
Total Unemployed
KANE COUNTY
1,260
1,170
100
20
15
60

10
200

25
150
200
310
90a
GARFIELD COUNTY
1,430
1,210
110
20
15
200

50
135

20
190
310
150
220b
Source:  University of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business
Research.

 7.1 percent.

 15.4 percent.
cooperation.1  They also participate in the Kaiparowits Planning
and Development Advisory Council which Governor Calvin L. Rampton
established by executive order in August 1974.2  The council was
established to guide and coordinate activities related to energy
development in Kane and Garfield Counties.

4.4.3  Factors Producing Impacts

     Two factors dominate as the cause of social and economic im-
pacts:  the manpower requirements of energy facilities and the
taxes levied on energy facilities.  Tax rates are tied to capital
costs, and/or the value of coal extracted, and/or the value of
energy produced.  Taxes which apply to the scenario facilities


     ^his system is described in 4.4.4.

     2The executive order is reprinted in U.S., Department of the
Interior, Bureau of Land Management.  Final Environmental Impact
Statement:  Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols.  Salt Lake City,
Utah:  Bureau of Land Management, 1976, pp. A-259 to A-260.
                               217
-------
    TABLE 4-21:   MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR ONE 3,000 MEGAWATT
                 POWER PLANT AND ASSOCIATED COAL MINEa
YEAR
PROM
J. r\v_/i7i
START
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
CONSTRUCTION
WORK FORCE
MINE

0
22
154
305
507
816
573
107
0


POWER PLANT
0
40
420
907
1,315
2,065
2,545
1,990
720
0


OPERATION
WORK FORCE
MINE






0
749
1,502
3,002
3,000
3,000
POWER PLANT






0
109
109
212
436
436
TOTAL IN
AMY (YMF
-rVLN -1 ^1N I-j
YEAR
0
40
442
1,061
1,620
2,572
3,361
3,421
2,433
3,214
3,436
3,436
MWe - megawatt-electric
aData are for a 3,000 MWe power plant and an underground coal mine
large enough to supply that power plant (about 11.2 million tons
per year) and are from Carasso, M., et al.  The Energy Supply
Planning Model, 2 vols.  San Francisco, Calif.:  Bechtel Corpora-
tion7 1975, data uncertainty is -10 to +20 percent.
hypothesized for Kaiparowits/Escalante are a property tax, sales
tax, and royalty payments on federally owned coal.

     Table 4-21 gives the manpower requirements of a 3,000 MWe
power plant and an underground coal mine large enough to supply
that power plant with coal.  Note that manpower requirements for
the operation of an underground coal mine exceed the peak construc-
tion requirements by 4 times, while the reverse is true for the
power plant (peak construction manpower requirements exceed opera-
tion requirements).  As a result, the manpower requirements for a
combination underground coal mine-power plant build steadily; the
maximum number of workers are employed during operation and no
construction peak occurs.

     The property tax and sales tax, which are tied to the capital
costs of the facilities, and royalty payments, which are tied to
the value of coal, generate revenue.  The capital costs of one
power plant and mine are given in Table 4-22.  The total cost of
one plant-mine combination is about 1,575 million 1975 dollars.
Property tax, most of which goes to local government, is levied on
                               218
-------
           TABLE 4-22:
CAPITAL RESOURCES  REQUIRED FOR
CONSTRUCTION OF FACILITIES
(in millions of 1975  dollars)3


FACILITY
Power Plant 3,000 MWe
Underground Coal Mine
11.2 MMtpy
MATERIALS
AND
EQUIPMENT
461
118

LABOR
AND
MISCELLANEOUS
461
72

INTEREST
AND
CONSTRUCTION
394
71



TOTAL
1,316
261

MWe  = megawatt-electric                   MMtpy = million tons per year

 Data are adjusted assuming linearity to correspond to the facility size hypo-
thesized in the scenario (a 3,000 MWe power plant with a 11.3 MMtpy mine) and
are  from Carrasso, M.,  et al.   The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols.  San
Francisco, Calif.:  Bechtel Corporation, 1975.

 At  10 percent per year.
the cash value of  the  facility (approximately the  total  capital
cost given in Table  4-22)  after construction of  the  facility is
completed.  Sales  tax,  most of which goes to the state government,
is levied on materials  and equipment only (Table 4-22) as the ma-
terials and equipment  are  purchased during construction.   The cur-
rent sales tax rate  in  Utah is 4.75 percent, of  which  4  percent
goes to the state  and  0.75 percent goes to the local government.
The property tax rate  is 1.82 percent in Kane County and 1.68
percent in Garfield  County.1   State and local governments also
receive 50 percent of  the  royalty payment, which is  12.5 percent
of the value of federally  owned coal.2

4.4.4  Impacts

     The nature and  extent of the social and economic  impacts
caused by these factors depend on the size and character of the
community or communities in which workers and their  families live,
on the state and local  tax structure, and on many  other  social and
economic factors.  A scenario, which calls for two power plant
complexes to be developed  according to a specified time  schedule
(see Table 4-1), is  used here as the vehicle through which the

     •'This is the  effective,  average property• tax  rate.   The actual
rate is computed using  a number of assessment ratios,  since certain
kinds of equipment (e.g.,  pollution control equipment) are taxed
at different rates or may  be exempt.

     2This is the  federal  government's target rate;  actual rates
will vary from mine  to  mine.

                                219
-------
     TABLE 4-23:
CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION EMPLOYMENT FOR
KAIPAROWITS SCENARIO, 1975-2000a
YEAR
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
to
2000
FACILITY #1
(KAIPAROWITS SITE)
CONSTRUCTION
40
440
1,060
1,670
2,570
3,360
2,560
830
0








OPERATION




0
430
740
1,480
2,970
2,970
2,970
2,970
2,970
2,970


2,970
FACILITY #2
(ESCALANTE SITE)
CONSTRUCTION




0
40
440
1,060
1,670
2,570
3,360
2,560
830
0



OPERATION








0
430
740
1,480
2,970
2,970


2,970
Source:  Carasso, M.,  et al.   The Energy Supply Planning Model
2 vols.  San Francisco, Calif.:  Bechtel Corporation, 1975.


aAbout 20-25 percent of construction and 80 percent of operation
employment is attributable to the coal mining activity alone.
nature and extent of the impacts are explored.  The discussion
relates each impact type to the hypothetical scenario and includes
population impacts, housing and school impacts, economic impacts,
fiscal impacts, social and cultural impacts, and political and
governmental impacts.

A.  Population Impacts

     Most of the social and economic impacts in the Kaiparowits/
Escalante scenario will result from population increases, initially
during construction and later during operation of the facilities.

     Construction of the first power plant was to have begun in
1975 and will extend into 1983.  The direct employment projections
used to evaluate population changes are shown in Table 4-23.
                               220
-------
Population projections are shown  in Table  4-24.l  They  indicate
that Page, Arizona will attract the majority of  the growth early
in the development.  Established  schools and services in  Page will
attract many people, especially families with children.   A 75
percent increase in size  (to 10,440) is expected by 1980, after
which only minor population changes should occur  (Table 4-24).
Kane County is expected to triple in population  by 1983,  after
which growth will be gradual.  Much of the increase should take
place in the new town, where 2,000 people will  live by  1979  and
6,500 by 1984.  Kanab can expect  a 40-percent increase  by 1980;
roadside sprawl of trailer homes  is likely in the Glen  Canyon City
area, where the present population of about 20 will grow  to  110
by 1980.

     Garfield County will receive only minor impacts from the first
mine and power plant development  located to the  south.  However,
after construction begins near Escalante in 1980, population will
increase considerably.  Between 1980 and 1987, when construction
is completed, a 240-percent increase in the county population is
expected, most of it at Escalante  (11,000 population in 1987) but
much of it also in and around the small towns along Utah  Highway
12 (Table 4-25) .

     Age-sex distributions of population were estimated from 1970
data for Kane and Garfield Counties and age distributions of em-
ployees and family members from recent surveys in the West.2
Page, Arizona, was assumed to have a structure similar to southern
Utah.  As it typical,  the relative number of males is expected to
be greatest during construction (1980-1985), and the proportion of
the population in the 20-35 age group remains higher due  to em-
ployment opportunities (Table 4-26).


     Population changes were projected using economic base  analy-
sis, the data in Table 4-23, employment multipliers, and  population
multipliers.  The employment multipliers used for the construction
phase increased from 0.2 to 0.4 and, for the operation phase, from
0.2 to 0.5.  The population/employee multipliers used were 2.2 for
construction and 3.0 for operation.  An average of 80 percent of
the new employees in the area were assumed to be from outside the
local area, a figure which may be high early in  the development but
which should be a reasonable average.  A community choice model
based on a town's population and distance from facility sites was
used to allocate populations to towns in the area.  The community
choice model is described in Mountain West Research.  Construction
Worker Profile, Final Report.  Washington, D.C.:  Old West Regional
Commission, 1976, pp.  90-97.  The assumed new town was allocated
500 people a priori in 1977 and 1978, after which its population
changes also were subject to the model.  The new town is  assumed
to be an incorporated community rather than a company town.

     2Ibid.

                               221
-------
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                                                           223
-------
       TABLE 4-26,:
AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION FOR PAGE
AND KANE AND GARFIELD COUNTIES
AGE GROUP
Female
65 and over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13
0-5
Total
Male
65 and over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13
0-5
Total
1975

.048
.051
.110
.053
.024
.024
.042
.098
.053
.503

.050
.054
.104
.048
.019
.026
.041
.100
.056
.498
1980

.020
.034
.102
.127
.045
.029
.023
.061
.041
.483

.021
.038
.110
.140
.049
.033
.022
.062
.042
.517
1985

.013
.025
.092
.151
.045
.030
.021
.065
.049
.491

.014
.027
.096
.158
.048
.032
.021
.065
.050
.509
1990-2000

.013
.021
.085
.156
.042
.029
.024
.074
.057
.501

.013
.022
.084
.155
.041
.029
.023
.074
.058
.499
B.  Housing and School Impacts

     Housing and school enrollment impacts are obtained from popu-
lation in the age structure estimates, assuming the age structure
is the same throughout the area.  The 6-13 age group is classified
as elementary school age and the 14-16 age group is classified as
secondary school age.l  Housing demand is estimated from the pro-
portion of the population which is male and 20 years of age and
older.

     Estimates of housing demand are generally high during construc-
tion and continue to rise slowly through 2000 (Table 4-27) .  By
1980 in this scenario, Kane County will need over 1,700 new homes,


     1 These assumptions and their resulting estimates are associated
with perhaps a ± 25 percent error given the population estimates.
                               224
-------
        TABLE 4-27:
ESTIMATED HOUSING DEMAND IN KANE AND
GARFIELD COUNTIES AND PAGE,
1975-2000
LOCATION
Kane County
New Town
Page
Garfield County
Escalante
1975
910
0
1,650
910
180
1980
2,670
1,200
3,740
1,610
320
1985
3,790
2,290
3,880
4,430
2,950
1990
3,620
2,190
3,710
4,490
3,060
2000
3,800
2,300
3,900
4,710
3,210
1,200 at the new town site alone  (Figure 4-6).  Judging from other
western energy development sites, at least half of these could be
mobile homes.   Garfield County is even more likely to have a
large number of mobile homes, since the demand for housing in 1985
will be nearly five times the 1975 level (Figure 4-7).  Escalante
is the probable site for extensive mobile home location.  Likewise,
the expected growth of the very small towns in the area (Tables
4-24 and 4-25)  will largely be accommodated by mobile homes.

     School enrollment projections in Table 4-28 are  rather low
until the 1980's because short-term construction personnel do not
all bring families and because many of those who do bring children
will probably choose to live in Page, which balances  the enrollment
decline after completion of the Navajo power plant.   Still  when
the increased enrollment from Kaiparowits area impacts is balanced
with the decline in population and enrollment from Navajo power
plant, a net increase of only about 300 students by 1985 and 600
by 1990 is expected in Page.

     The impact of this approximate 30 percent increase in enroll-
ment by 1985 on Page will be relatively slight compared to the im-
pacts anticipated in Kane and Garfield Counties (Figure 4-8).  The
enrollment increase in these two counties will be more than 100
percent by 1990.  Further, this increase will occur in a part of
the area where,  except for Escalante, school facilities are not
currently available.  The financial impacts associated with pro-
viding education for this increased school-age population will be
     fountain West Research.  Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report.  Washington, D.C.:  Old West Regional Commission, 1976,
p. 103.
                               225
-------
en
T3
C
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3
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3
o
                                                   Households-
                                                   County
                                                   Total
                                                  Households-
                                                  New  Town
                                                  Elementary
                                                  Secondary
     1975
               1980
1985    1990    1995
                                               2000
FIGURE 4-6:
              ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLDS  AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
              IN KANE COUNTY,  1975-2000
                            226
-------
CO


rd
CO

O

4-1


4J


g
i-H
,—I
O


w

CO


O

CD
CO

O
                                                   Households-
                                                   County
                                                   Total
                                                   Households-
                                                   Escalante
                                                   Elementary
                                                   Secondary
     1975    1980     1985
                                1990
1995
2000
FIGURE 4-7:
               ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLDS  AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
               IN GARFIELD COUNTY,  1975-2000
                            227
-------
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      TABLE 4-28:
ESTIMATED SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IN KANE AND
GARFIELD COUNTIES AND PAGE
SCHOOL
Elementary
Kane County
Page
Garfield County
Secondary
Kane County
Page
Garfield County
1975

650
1,190
650

270
500
270
1980

920
1,280
650

340
500
270
1985

1,440
1,470
1,680

460
500
540
1990

1,700
1,740
2,100

540
550
670
2000

1,780
1,830
2,200

570
580
700
felt primarily in Garfield County (Table 4-29) , although the lead
time is somewhat longer there than for Kane County.  Overall, about
$14 million will be needed for schools in southern Utah because of
the energy development and about $2.7 million in Page.

C.  Economic Impacts

     One of the most immediate local impacts from energy develop-
ment in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area will be a change in income
distribution both because energy and construction workers tend to
earn relatively high incomes and because local residents will be
able to fir.d employment in energy development or to establish re-
tail businesses in the area.  The income impact will be especially
noticeable in southern Utah, where the per capita income is cur-
rently less than 70 percent of the national average.1

     In making the income distribution projections, the patterns
recently found in currently affected energy resource communities
in the West were adopted.2  The construction phase results in a
43 percent rise in median household income by 1985, including in-
creased incomes for many long-time residents.  This declines by

     ^.S., Department of Commerce,  Bureau of Economic Analysis.
"Local Area Personal Income."  Survey of Current Business, Vol. 54
(May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75; Kiholm, Janet.  "Personal Income in
Utah 1907-1975."  Utah Economic and Business Review, Vol. 36
(June 1976) , pp. 1-6.

     2Mountain West Research.  Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report.  Washington, D.C.:  Old West Regional Commission, 1976,
p. 50.
                                229
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1990 but will remain 24 percent above current levels (Table 4-30
and Figures 4-9 and 4-10).  The principal changes in the Kane and
Garfield County income distribution will be a large relative de-
crease in low-income families and a predominance of families in
the $15 - $25 thousand income range.

     A second major impact will be an expansion in secondary em-
ployment, especially retailing.  Any necessary industrial services
are likely to be either provided within the mine-power plant com-
plexes or imported from outside the Kaiparowits area.  No other
major industrial facilities are expected in the area from this
scenario.  Substantial increases in service employment to provide
goods and services for the local population will be part of the
overall impact of energy development.  Because retail activities
are market-oriented, their location is largely determined by the
locations of customers and other businesses.  Therefore, much of
the early impact, at least through 1980, will occur at Page, where
most energy workers will live and where businesses are already
serving Navajo power plant workers and their families.  However,
much of the 1975-1980 impact on Page from Kaiparowits will have
the effect of offsetting an economic decline during the phase-out
of construction at the Navajo facility.  Because of Page's current
mix of goods and services and its importance to the southern Utah
area before the Kaiparowits new town is built, a 75 percent in-
crease in retail activity (based on the expected population in-
crease) at Page is expected by 1990.

     The Kaiparowits new town and, to a lesser extent Escalante,
will provide lower order (frequently purchased, often lower cost)
goods and services, while higher order retail activities will be
relatively more numerous at Page and, to some extent, Flagstaff.
Activities in the Kaiparowits/Escalante area towns by the mid-
1980's are likely to include a bank, taverns, gas stations, food
stores, restaurants, laundries, and probably clothing stores.
However, no large-scale economic benefit to the Page and southern
Utah area is likely to result because the goods purchased there
will largely be manufactured and wholesaled outside the area.
Flagstaff, Arizona, a rapidly growing city about 120 miles south
of Page, is likely to benefit from increased wholesale activity.
Salt Lake City and Phoenix should also benefit from increased
wholesale and retail activity as well as from state sales and in-
come tax receipts.

     Local government expenditures will generally be manageable
except for Escalante.  The Kaiparowits new town could plan to meet
public expenditure demands by including the energy facilities in
                               231
-------
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25,000
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15,000-
24,999
12,000-
14,999
10,000-
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                    1975 1980  1985   1990 1995  2000
FIGURE  4-10:
ESTIMATED  ANNUAL INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR KANE
AND GARFIELD COUNTIES, 1975-2000
                             233
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the Special Service Districts.1  Page already has the Navajo power
plant in its property tax base and has  excess capacity  in most
of its public services.  The new town's construction presumably
would include sufficient capital facilities to handle all the ex-
pected population.  Escalante, by means of Special Service Dis-
tricts, also could use energy facility  tax revenues but might have
more trouble than other towns in having ready capital in time for
the demand.  This is discussed further  in the section on fiscal
impacts.  In the view of some persons,  the new roads, pipelines,
transmission lines, and reduced visibility in the wilderness areas
would also downgrade the scenic attractions of the area,2 having
serious implications for a region which Is currently dependent on
tourism for its economic livelihood.

     Agriculture involves about 660 square miles in Kane and Gar-
field Counties  (about 7 percent of the  area), down from 740 square
miles in 1967.  Eight percent of the labor force works in agri-
culture, mainly cattle and sheep grazing operations.  Little
ranching takes place near the scenario  facility sites, and it is
unlikely that energy development would  adversely affect agriculture,
The amount of land now committed to national forest and other fed-
eral uses also indicates that not much  increase in agriculture is
likely in southern Utah.  Smaller ranches will gradually go out of
production or be consolidated into larger units, but this is a
national trend not expected to be influenced by energy development.

     Finally, the energy-related economic activity will result in
inflation in local housing and labor markets, perhaps equal to the
short-term increase in income.  Project workers will be able to
outbid long-time local residents for land (where private land is
available)  and for goods and services; some low-wage service
workers will be attracted away from their present jobs.  Some em-
ployees of existing businesses in the area can be expected to move
to higher paying jobs in the energy facilities.
     Special Service Districts in Utah can supply water, sewage,
drainage, flood control, garbage, hospital, transportation, recrea-
tion, and fire protection services.  They may include several non-
contiguous areas, such as a power plant and a town separated by
sevevral miles, and may cross jurisdictional boundaries.  See
Section F, Political and Governmental Impacts.

     2See Josephy, Alvin M.  "Kaiparowits:  The Ultimate Obscenity."
Audubon Magazine, Vol. 78  (Spring  1976), pp.  64-90;  Ives, Berry,
and William Schulze.  Boomtown Impacts of Energy Development in  the
Lake Powell Region, Draft Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin.
Los Angeles, Calif.:  University of California, Institute of Geo-
physics and Planetary Physics, 1976.


                                235
-------
              TABLE 4-31:   PROPERTY TAX REVENUES
                           (millions of 1975  dollars',
JURISDICTION
Kane County a
Garfield County
Escalante b
Coconino County, Arizona
1977
2.8
0
0
0.03
1980
15.6
1
0.01
0.14
1985
21.8
18.3
0.42
0.17
1990
21.8
21.8
0.48
0.18
       Tax on energy facilities.

       Tax on residential and commercial development.
D.  Fiscal Impacts

     The largest fiscal impact of the energy development hypothe-
sized in this scenario will arise from property taxes.   Development
expenditures are estimated to be $1,300 million for each power
plant and $250 million for related coal mines at each site.  This
is equivalent to 32 percent of the currently assessed valuation
in all of Utah.

     Assuming that the current mill levy rates are maintained1
and that the energy facilities are taxable at those levels, the
energy facilities and related residential and commercial develop-
ment will generate the property tax revenues shown in Table 4-31.

     Only about 3 percent of the increased tax base in the area
will be accounted for by residential and commercial development.
All property taxes in Utah currently go to county and local govern-
ments.  On the average, school districts get 59.8 percent.2

     By law, property tax will be due on both mine structures and
equipment (as calculated above) and on the coal resource when
mined.  However, nonmetallic mines located on land leased from
public agencies have not been subjected to this "privilege tax"
in the past.  Because of this precedent and the heretofore arbitrary


      Current levies are 1.82 percent of full cash value in Kane
County and 1.68 percent in Garfield County.  University of Utah,
Bureau of Economic and Business Research.  1976 Statistical Ab-
stract of Utah.  Salt Lake City, Utah:  University of Utah, Bureau
of Economic and Business Research, 1976, Tables VII-16 and VII-17.

      2Ibid., Table VII-14.
                                236
-------
        TABLE 4-32:  ALLOCATION OF FEDERAL COAL ROYALTIES
                     (millions of dollars)
FUND
State
Reclamation
Total (including
others
1980
1.8
1.5

3.7
1985
10.2
8.1

20.3
1990
18.3
14.7

36.7
2000
22.2
17.8

44.5
application of taxes to other mineral deposits, no potential re-
venues are assumed from this source.1

     Utah will derive some benefit from federal royalties.  Ac-
cording to recently passed legislation, 12.5 percent of mine-mouth
value has been set as a target for royalty collection, and of this
amount 50 percent will be returned to the state.2  (A portion of
the state's share must be expended in the coal-impact area, but
we have credited all of it to the state's account.)  Using coal
prices derived from the nominal case run of the Stanford Research
Institute (SRI) model3 (rising from $7.99/ton in 1975 to $13.71/ton
by 2000, in constant dollars), and assuming that all of the coal
is obtained through federal leases, ** royalties shown in Table
4-32 may be expected.

     Excise taxes will apply both directly to the energy facilities
(a use tax on building materials, whether imported to the state or
bought locally) and indirectly (sales tax on the workers' retail
purchases).   Construction activity will reach a peak in 1980, when

     ^render, Leonard D.  Taxation of Coal Mining:  Review with
Recommendations.   Denver, Colo. :   Western Governors'  Regional Pol-
icy Office,  1976, appendix on Utah.

     2Bureau of National Affairs.  Energy Users' Report, Current
Developments No.  129 (January 29, 1976), pp. A-3 through A-4.

     3Cazalet, Edward, et al.  A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study:   Economics, Final Report,2 vols.Menlo Park,Calif.:
Stanford Research Institute, 1976.

     4Eight-seven percent of the land in these counties is feder-
ally owned.

                               237
-------
         TABLE 4-33:
REVENUE FROM SALES AND USE TAXES'
(millions of 1975 dollars)
LOCATION
Utah
State
Kane County
Garfield County
Arizona
State
Page
1977

4.1
0.51
0.01

0-12
0.02
1980

14.2
1.52
0.26

0.58
0.07
1985

11.3
0.11
1.3

0.59
0.07
1990

1.4
0.08
0.1

0.43
0.05
        Distribution of retail sales assumed proportional
        to population.
$337 million of materials and equipment are installed.  At a rate
of 4 percent, Utah would gain $13.5 million in use tax revenue
that year, and the counties would gain $1.7 million  (at a 0.5
percent rate).  After the completion of the energy facilities,
only the sales tax would continue.  The $46 million per year of
retail sales1 would yield $1.4 million for the state of Utah.
These revenues are detailed in Table 4-33.  Note that Page will
not collect a use tax from the plants, only a sales tax from re-
tail activity.

     As a final source of revenue, localities can charge for basic
services, most notably water and sewer.  Taking the Utah average
of $74.80 per capita for charges and miscellaneous fees by local
government,2 additional local revenues can be expected as shown
in Table 4-34.

     All the revenues cited in the preceding analysis are grouped
by jurisdiction in Table 4-35 to provide a basis for comparison
with expenditures.


     Assuming that 56.0 percent of new personal income goes to
taxable purchases.  This is the average rate for the mountain
states.  See U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
The Statistical Abstract of the United States.  Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1975, Tables 1317, 629.

     2 Inferred from University of Utah, Bureau of Economic and
Business Research.  1976 Statistical Abstract of Utah.  Salt Lake
City, Utah:  University of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business
Research, 1976, Table VII-8.
                               238
-------
             TABLE 4-34:
         GOVERNMENT FEES FOR SERVICES
         (millions of 1975 dollars)
COUNTY
Kane County
Escalante, Utah
Coconino, Arizona
1977
.06
.01
.07
1980
.31
.02
.32
1985
.58
.59
.39
1990
.61
.68
.42
    TABLE 4-35:
SUMMARY OF REVENUES FROM ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
(millions of 1975 dollars)
LOCATION
Utah State3
Kane County
Kane School District
Garfield County
Garfield School District
Escalante
Arizona State
Arizona Local
1977
6.1
1.7
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.02
0.12
0.12
1980
20.0
8.1
9.3
0.6
0.6
0.05
0.58
0.53
1985
33.6
9.5
13.0
8.6
10.9
1.14
0.59
0.63
1990
26.1
9.5
13.0
8.8
13.0
1.26
0.43
0.65
     Including funds for discretionary allocation to local
    units.

     As stated earlier, energy development will necessitate an ex-
pansion of public services, especially in the areas of education
and water and sewage treatment, and thus will require substantial
expenditures.  In analyzing these requirements, standard accounting
procedures were followed; capital and operating expenditures were
identified separately.  It was assumed, as stated previously, that
$2,500 in capital costs will be incurred for each additional student.
(School enrollment is the only substantial growth category foreseen
in the decade of the 1990's, either in expenditures or revenues.)
Other likely capital expenditures include $1,760 per capita for
water and sewage facilities and $590 for other items1 (mostly hos-
pitals and parks).  Table 4-36 shows the projected capital require-
ments of Kane and Garfield Counties resulting from the application
of these figures to the appropriate population projections, by
5-year periods.

     *THK Associates, Inc.   Impact Analysis and Development Patterns
Related to an Oil Shale Industry;  Regional Development and Land
Use Study.Denver,Colo.:THK Associates,1974.
                               239
-------
           TABLE 4-36:
CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS OP LOCAL
GOVERNMENTS BY QUINQUENNIA
(millions of 1975 dollars)


LOCATION
Kane County
Kane School District
Garfield School District
Escalante, Utah
Page, Arizona3"
1976
TO
1980
9.8
0.8
0.00
0.59
10.64
1981
TO
1985
8.4
1.6
3.2
18.1
2.53
1986
TO
1990
1.0
0.8
1.4
2.66
1.9
1991
TO
2000
NA
0.3
0.3
NA
NA
    NA = not applicable, since no appreciable population
         increase.

    aGeneral government and schools.
     For operating expenditures, it is assumed that Utah averages
will be maintained.l   The annual operating levels are projected
in Table 4-37.

     A comparison of these requirements with the previously tab-
ulated revenue projections shows that Utah and many of its local
jurisdictions will enjoy substantial, positive fiscal benefits by
1980 if current tax rates are maintained.  For example, the Kane
School District would receive additional property tax revenues of
$13.0 million per year by 1982, while only $1.7 million per year
in additional operating funds would be needed, even by 1990.   The
surplus will leave more than enough for the $3.2 million in capital
to be accumulated over the first 15 years.  The situation is simi-
lar for county governments.  The state government will eventually
collect about twice as much as is needed for additional services
($26.1 million per year versus $12.3 million in 1990 and beyond).
In fact, the disparity is even greater in the mid-1980"s, when
some $11 million per year will be realized from the use tax on
construction materials.
     *At $1,300 per year per student for schools, $197 per capita
for other local functions, and $645 for state government.  See Uni-
versity of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business Research.  1976
Statistical Abstract of Utah.  Salt Lake City, Utah:  University
of Utah, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 1976.
                               240
-------
      TABLE 4-37:
INCREASES IN OPERATING EXPENDITURES OF
SELECTED LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT
(millions of 1975 dollars)
JURISDICTION
Utah State
Kane County
Kane School District
Garfield School District
Escalante, Utah
Page, Arizona3
1977
0.80
0.16
0.18
0.00
0.02
0.25
1980
3.50
0.82
0.44
0.00
0.05
0.99
1982
4.80
0.92
0.77
0.68
0.32
0.94
1985
11.20
1.53
1.27
1.69
1.57
1.41
1990
12.30
1.61
1.72
2.40
1.79
1.92
 aGeneral government and schools.
     Municipalities, however, will experience negative fiscal im-
pacts if higher levels of government do not subsidize them.  Es-
calante and Page may be taken as examples of this problem.  Exca-
lante's new revenues will just about keep pace with operating
expenditures until the mid-1980's, but later deficits will grow
to about $530,000 per year ($1.79 million new expenditures versus
$1.26 million new revenues).   Moreover, Escalante must build new
facilities at a rate of $3.62 million per year during 1981-1985 if
the current quality of service is to be maintained.  Fortunately,
the capital requirements will decrease to $0.53 million per year
in the late 1980's, and a negligible level thereafter, due to a
leveling off of population growth.

     Similarly, in Page, Arizona, operating deficits will widen
continually, from $0.46 million in 1980 to $0.78 million in 1985
and $1.27 million in 1990.1   Capital requirements will peak at
$2.13 million per year in the late 1970's, decreasing to about
$0.45 million through the 1980's.

     The disparities between state, county, and municipality re-
venues arise because the state and county can tax energy developers
directly but the municipality can tax only the new population.
Counties levy property taxes and use taxes on the facilities; the
state receives a share of federal coal royalties, the larger part
of sales and use taxes, and an income tax.  Thus, their revenues
can grow faster than population  (and hence costs) without any
change in tax rates.  However, as long as municipalities rely on
population-determined taxes   (residential property, utility fees,


     1 Deficits include both  school and general local government.
                               241
-------
retail sales) , they cannot expand revenues faster than population
increases without raising their tax rates.

E.  Social and Cultural Impacts

     The major sociocultural impact resulting from the Kaiparowits/
Escalante development will be a drastic alteration of the domi-
nant lifestyle in the area.  At present, communities are small,
relatively isolated, and inhabited by persons who have established
rural traditions1 and strong religious beliefs.   Residents of the
communities are family and extended family oriented.  The influx
of individuals with different geographical, cultural, and religious
origins, higher incomes, and a somewhat more urban perspective
will provide a sharp contrast to the present population.  Because
these new residents will eventually outnumber the present popula-
tion, changes in the dominant lifestyle will occur.

     Religious and value differences could also be problems.  The
inhabitants of southern Utah are almost exclusively Mormon,  whereas
a large number of the immigrants will probably not be Mormon.
Mormon standards may conflict with immigrant preferences, particu-
larly with regard to intoxicants and smoking.  Conflicts from
these differences may well arise for immigrant school children.
In addition, the evangelistic posture of the Mormon church could
have an effect by generating both converts and conflicts.  The
lack of alternative churches in Utah may make Page a worship center
because eight denominations, in addition to the  Latter Day Saints,
have congregations there.

     Dissatisfactions with mobile home living and insufficient
social services will produce impacts such as high divorce rates
and other indications of community and family stress.2  One aspect
of this stress will be an increased crime rate.   However, after
construction activity is completed (by 1988), these local problems
should decrease significantly.

     Although community medical facilities appear capable of
meeting projected needs to 1985, adequate medical personnel will


     *Minar, David W., and Scott Greer.  The Concept of Community:
Readings with Interpretations.  Chicago, 111.:  Aldine,  1969.

     2For a further discussion of boomtown problems, see Gilmore,
John S.  "Boom Towns May Hinder Energy Development."  Science, Vol.
191 (February 13, 1976), pp. 535-40; Kneese, Allan V.  "Mitigating
the Undesirable Aspects of Boom Town Development," in Federation
of Rocky Mountain States.   Energy Development in the Rocky Mountain
Region:  Goals and Concerns.  Denver, Colo.:  Federation of Rocky
Mountain States, 1975, pp. 74-76; and Talagan, D.P., and W.E. Rapp.
"Mitigation of Social Impacts on Individuals, Families,  and Commu-
nities in Rapid Growth Areas," in Ibid., pp. 71-74.

                               242
-------
be difficult to retain because physicians generally are reluctant
to live in isolated, nonmetropolitan areas.  The two Utah counties
will need 39 physicians by 1990 to meet the national average of
one physician per 1,320 population.

     Because the population increases in the area will be caused
primarily by the energy development activities, a number of "com-
pany town" characteristics may develop in area communities.  Work
schedules, holidays, and vacations might well determine the hours
for businesses in these communities, creating an impression of
company domination.  Company-owned buildings and vehicles will
also contribute to this impression, creating resentment among
some native residents.  The new town near Glen Canyon City will
probably show the greatest "company town" tendencies.

F.  Political and Governmental Impacts

     Population growth and economic development at Kaiparowits/
Escalante, almost of necessity, will increase the role of govern-
ment in terms of demands for public service and facilities.  As
shown in the preceding analysis, most of these demands will fall
on Kane and Garfield Counties, their localities, and to a lesser
degree on Page, Arizona.  The state government of Utah likewise
will be affected, particularly with regard to legislative policies
and programs, tax collection and distribution procedures, and other
energy-related problems of statewide planning and growth manage-
ment.

     Immediate governmental impacts will occur as local communities,
confronted with or anticipating rapid population increases, demand
expenditures to provide essential services.  In the case of Kane
and Garfield Counties, the bulk of the population is located in
the western half of each county.  Most of the population increases,
on the other hand, will take place in the resource areas, which
are in the eastern parts of the area.

     Although, as noted in the fiscal analysis, revenues in the
two Utah counties will be adequate to provide service improvements,
problems may occur relative to the timing and distribution of
available tax monies for communities if higher levels of govern-
ment do not subsidize them.  For example, even though Escalante's
new revenues appear to keep pace with operating expenditures until
the mid-1980's, later deficits expand to $530,000 per year.
Furthermore, Escalante must build new facilities at a rate of $3.62
million per year during 1981-1985 if present tax rates are main-
tained in this community.

     The timing problem  (i.e., the potential impact of lagging
revenues)  for localities might be averted if resource developers
choose to prepay all or a portion of the taxes anticipated from
the facility development and if such monies are distributed to the


                               243
-------
point of impact.  However, as enacted in 1975, the Utah sales
and use tax prepayment provision is restricted in several ways.1
First, it is voluntary on the part of the developer and appears
to give no incentive to the developer to prepay (e.g., in the
form of discounts or interest on tax credits).  Second and more
critical to mitigating local impacts are restrictions limiting aid
to "state-related public improvements," such as schools and high-
ways.  The preceding fiscal analysis shows that the agencies pri-
marily concerned with these projects (e.g., school districts)
will manage without such assistance.  The problem for state pro-
grams is not one of time, for these jurisdictions have surplusses
from the start; rather, the problem is that municipalities need
help in meeting their front-end financing problems.

     In addition to the above limitations, the process of distrib-
uting revenues collected through Utah's prepayment statute does
not insure that the available funds will reach the point of need
in a reliable manner.  The Utah legislature is required to approve
appropriations for public service projects to be funded, thereby
increasing the length of time required for the disbursement of
monies and raising the level of uncertainty as to their availabil-
ity.  This is especially significant because the legislature meets
only once every 2 years.

     There also appears to be some question as to the adequacy of
the increased revenues which Page and Coconino County can expect
to receive for purposes of service and facility improvements.
In Page, Arizona, operating deficits widen continually during
1980-1990.  Some fiscal adjustments may be required by the res-
pective local and county governments because Arizona must depend
on ad valorem property taxes and assessed valuations connected with
population growth and increased sales taxes to finance public
improvements.

     Fiscal impacts and problems of tax distribution underscore
the importance of adequate planning at every level of government.
The planning capacity of Kane and Garfield Counties, as previously
indicated, is limited.  Only Kane County has a zoning ordinance
and planning commission, and both staffs are small.  The Kaiparo-
wits Planning and Development Council was established to provide
the two Utah counties access to additional professional planning
expertise.  In addition, the state has taken several earlier steps
to reinforce the roles and capabilities of local officials by
     :Utah Code Annotated, §§ 63-51-1 et seq.   (Cumulative Supple-
ment 1975.)
                               244
-------
developing a planning and coordination structure to assist
localities.1  Beginning in May 1970, eight multicounty planning
districts  (since reduced to seven) were established by executive
order of the Governor.  Members of the designated districts formed
Associations of Government (AOG's), with Kane and Garfield joining
the Five County AOG in southern Utah.  Generally, membership in
the Five County AOG is composed of elected city and county offi-
cials; however, it includes elected members of the school board
and invited representatives of higher education and state legis-
lators to sit ex-officio.  The association decides what issues it
chooses to deal with, what funds it accepts for these purposes,
and whether it will undertake direct operation of programs.  The
AOG also sends representatives to the Governor's Advisory Council
on Local Affairs (GACLA)  to coordinate local involvement in the
state government planning process.

     Besides the GACLA, the governor of Utah has another statewide
advisory group, the State Planning Advisory Committee, which seeks
to coordinate the responses of state agencies to both federal and
local issues and bring state agencies under a common set of prior-
ities and policies.2  This committee and the multicounty AOG serve
additionally as state and area clearinghouses under the federal
Office of Management and Budget A-95 review procedures.3

     As described above,  Utah's arrangements and procedures for
intergovernmental coordination remain largely untested, at least
in terms of the energy-related problems the state confronts in
this scenario.  Until the scenario unfolds over time, it will re-
main unknown whether the typical lag between the need for govern-
ment planning and services and their provision will or will not
prevail here.  The fact that there is so much federal land in the


      Information on the Utah intergovernmental planning structure
is summarized mainly from Utah, State Planning Coordinator and
Department of Community Affairs.  Intergovernmental Planning and
Coordination:  The Utah Experience.  Salt Lake City, Utah:  State
of Utah, 1975.

     2To carry out its duties, the State Planning Advisory Commit-
tee has established three interdepartmental coordination groups
within three major categories:  Human Services, Economic and Phys-
ical Development, and Regulatory.

     30ffice of Management and Budget Circular A-95 establishes
the requirement for states to provide the opportunity for gover-
nors and local officials  to comment on applications for federal
funds to undertake a variety of categorical programs, and requires
agencies of the federal government to consider the comments of the
general public in approving specific applications for funds.   Nu-
merous federal grants for facilities and services require A-95
review procedures as a condition for their award.

                               245
-------
area suggests that proper planning in advance will be even more
essential in this scenario than elsewhere.1  It also suggests
that the market for the best land could easily be bid out of reach
of all but large, nonlocal interests.  Further, the location and
status of the Kaiparowits new town will raise numerous issues
involving both the state and county governments, as well as
federal-state relations.

     Besides facility finances, another traditional category of
government concern that may be affected by energy resource devel-
opment is police protection; that is, increases in area crime due
to energy-related development and population increase might result
in law enforcement problems.2  However, increases in crime appear
to vary greatly from community to community and are not always
perceived to be disproportionate.3  Present law enforcement per-
sonnel will be insufficient for the communities likely to be
affected, and salary disparities between area law enforcement and
energy facility security jobs may result in loss of some community
officers to the higher paid positions.

     In addition to impacts noted above, energy development at
Kaiparowits/Escalante may result in changes for traditional
organized interests and could, over the long term, affect the power
base of political groups and other parties-at-interest in energy-
impacted communities.  For example, the change in land use from
ranching and tourism to urban, industrial, and residential activi-
ties will result in social and political stress in the area.  Long-
time residents whose way of life, and possibly livelihood, are
threatened by energy development could become a political force
that might make additional demands on the developers.  Although
the southern Utah mood is generally prodevelopment, some groups
will be affected more adversely than others.  Therefore, some
political differences appear likely.  These may well be exacer-
bated if, as is likely, newcomers displace natives on the


     1For example, police and fire protection and medical care in-
volve important locational and accessibility criteria that must be
considered.  The unavailability of federal land could constrain
such services to very nonoptimal sites if the best sites are either
on federal land or are sold for other uses.

     2Crime rates have often increased in other boom towns.  See
Coon, Randal C., et al.  The Impact of the Safeguard Antiballistic
Missile System Construction on Northeastern North Dakota, Agricul-
tural Economics Report No. 101.  Fargo, N.D.:  North Dakota State
University, Department of Agricultural Economics, 1976, pp. 15-16;
Gilmore, John S.  "Boom Towns May Hinder Energy Development."
Science, Vol. 191 (February 13, 1976),  pp. 535-40.

     3Summers, Gene F., et al.  Industrial Invasion of Nonmetropo-
litan America.  New York, N.Y.:  Praeger, 1976.

                                246
-------
governing bodies of city and county governments and in such
organizations as Parent Teachers Associations and Chambers of
Commerce.  If construction-related residents, who are known to be
temporary, are perceived to be overly active politically, hostil-
ity can result.

4.4.5  Summary of Social and Economic Impacts

     Manpower requirements and tax rates, especially those tied
to the capital costs of the mine-power plant complexes, are major
causes of social and economic impacts.  The manpower requirement
for the operation of an underground coal mine exceeds the peak
construction requirement by four times, but the reverse is true
for the power plant.  As a result, the manpower requirements for
the mine-plant combination build steadily; the maximum number of
workers are employed during operation, and no construction peak
occurs.

     Property tax and sales tax, which are tied to energy facility
capital costs, and royalty payments, which are tied to the value
of the coal, generate revenue for the state and local government.
Capital costs for a power plant-mine combination  (two are hypothe-
sized for the Kaiparowits/Escalante area) are about $1,575 million
(1975 dollars).  The property tax is levied on the cash value of
each facility, and the sales tax is levied on the materials and
equipment purchased.  The current sales tax rate  in Utah is 4.75
percent; the property tax rate is about 1.82 percent in Kane County
and 1.68 percent in Garfield County.  State and local governments
will receive 50 percent of the royalty payments which are about
12.5 percent of the value of federally owned coal.

     If development at Kaiparowits/Escalante proceeds according
to the scenario hypothesized, it will result in an approximate
400 percent population increase in southern Utah  (to more than 25
thousand people) by 1990.  The largest local increases should occur
in Escalante and at the Kaiparowits new town.  However, much of
the secondary employment personnel will be attracted to Page,
Arizona.  Housing and school needs will be greatest at Escalante,
less at the new town (where the development plan should anticipate
demand with several school buildings), and less at Page, where the
increase will be fairly gradual and will balance with the down-
turn in activity from construction of the Navajo power plant.

     A long-term impact on the age structure in the area will re-
sult, with younger workers and families moving into an area which
has recently seen much out-migration by young adults.  In the
short term, an  imbalance of males and females could cause social
problems during project construction.  The average income in the
area will increase by at least 24 percent, and except for Coconino
County and Page, governmental revenues will increase.  Most of the
impacts will occur in the eastern portions of the two counties,
the area now least populated.  This will  intensify the need for

                                247
-------
planning and delivery of social services, and it may result in
some tension between the new population in the east and the na-
tives in the west.

     Revenues generated by the development will support the ex-
pansion of public services and professional staff required in
southern Utah.  However, Page will not benefit directly and will
suffer a net loss in providing services to the portion of the
population increase expected to locate there.

     By 1990, most of the negative economic impacts associated
with population increases will have been absorbed.  From this
time forward, economic impacts will be almost entirely beneficial,
especially in terms of tax revenues and personal income.

4.5  ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS

4.5.1  Introduction

     The area considered for ecological impacts in the Kaiparowits/
Escalante scenario extends northward from the Colorado River to
include the Aquarius Plateau and Boulder Mountain.  The western
boundary is the Paria River, and the eastern boundary is the Henry
Mountains.   Topographically, the area is a series of benches or
plateaus, separated by steep cliffs as much as 2,000 feet in
height.  The entire landscape rises gradually from 4,000 feet in
the semiarid benchlands at Glen Canyon Dam to more than 10,500
feet on the relatively moist Aquarius Plateau.  Elevational change,
with associated rainfall variation of 6 to 20 inches per year, is
the major factor determining the distribution of predominant plant
communities.  Within each community type, soil moisture largely
determines the relative abundance of plant species.

4.5.2  Existing Biological Conditions

     Biological communities in the Kaiparowits Plateau area are
comprised primarily of plants and animals adapted for survival in
a harsh, arid or semiarid environment.1  Nevertheless, these popu-
lations fluctuate from year to year in response to climatic varia-
tions, especially in the amount of moisture.  Slight variations in
precipitation can cause major changes in the production of plants;
in turn, the levels of plant productivity tend to place a ceiling
on the potential abundance of animal life.

     The flora of the Kaiparowits Plateau contains a blend of
cold and warm desert species, resulting in a diversity of plant


     1U.S./ Department of the Interior, Southwest Energy Federal
Task Force.  Southwest Energy Study, Appendix H:  Report of the
Biota Work Group.  Springfield, Va.:  National Technical Informa-
tion Service, 1972, pp. 23-30.  PB-232-104.

                                248
-------
life.  The dominant vegetation types in the immediate vicinity of
the postulated energy facilities are pinyon-juniper woodland on the
plateau and several desert shrub and grassland communities at lower
elevations toward the Colorado River.1  Some soilless, rocky areas
are entirely barren.  At the Kaiparowits facility site, pinyon and
juniper trees cover up to 62 percent of the surface.  Mountains
to the north support coniferous forests that consist mostly of
Ponderosa pine and Douglas fir.

     Animal life is diverse but sparse, probably because accessible
water is relatively scarce.  Large mammals include mule deer,
pronghorn antelope, bighorn sheep, mountain lions, coyotes, foxes,
and bobcats.2  Over 200 species of birds use the area at least
seasonally, and about 60 species of smaller terrestrial vertebrates
occur, including small mammals, reptiles, and amphibians.3  The
only rare or endangered species known to occur in the area directly
affected by the scenario activities is the peregrine falcon, which
occasionally appears in the summer.4  Table 4-38 summarizes char-
acteristic species of the major terrestrial habitat types in the
scenario area.

     The physical and chemical properties of Lake Powell make it
a productive lake with a largely self-sustaining sport fishery.
The lake supports about 19 species of fish via a food chain that
includes a diversity of algae and invertebrates.  The lake is
primarily a warm water habitat, and fishes such as largemouth bass
are abundant in the upper water layers and shallow bays.  Deeper,
cooler layers contain trout.

4.5.3 Factors Producing Impacts

     Four factors associated with construction and operation of
the scenario facilities (two 3,000 MWe power plants and their


     ^.S., Department of the Interior, Southwest Energy Federal
Task Force.  Southwest Energy Study, Appendix H:  Report of the
Biota Work Group.  Springfield, Va,:  National Technical Informa-
tion Service, 1972, pp. 23-30.  PB-232 104.

     2Bighorn sheep occur in the Circle Cliffs area, which is the
northern border of the Escalante River Valley.

     3Some of the small mammals may be important to arid southwest
ecosystems.  For example,  kangaroo rats help maintain nutrient
cycles.   Chew, R.M., and A.E.  Chew.  "Energy Relationships of the
Mammals  of a Desert Shrub (Larrea tridentata)  Community."  Ecolog-
ical Monographs, Vol.  40 (1979), pp. 1-21.

     4A colony of the endangered Utah prairie dog is located about
25 miles to the north, and another has been introduced in Bryce
Canyon to the west.

                               249
-------
  TABLE 4-38:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTIC  SPECIES OF MAIN HABITAT
TYPES  IN KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE SCENARIO
      COMMUNITY TYPE
          CHARACTERISTIC PLANTS
CHARACTERISTIC ANIMALS
  Salt and Desert Shrub
  and Grasslands
          Blackbrush
          Spiny hopsage
          Shadscale
          Rabbithrush
          Galleta grass
          Indian ricegrass
Pronghorn antelope
Buffalo
Canyon mouse
Chukar
Horned lark
Side-blotched lizard
Coyote
Badger
  Rugged Areas
          Same as desert  shrub
Bighorn  sheep
Rock squirrel
Bat
Birds of prey
Mountain lion
Bobcat
  Pinyon-Juniper
  Woodland
          Utah juniper
          Double-leaf pinyon
          Buffaloberry
          Cliffrose
          Sagebrush
          Indian ricegrass
          Blue grama
Mule deer
Desert cottontail
Bushytail woodrat
Pinyon jay
Chickadee
Coyote
Fox
Mountain lion
Bobcat
  Plateau Coniferous
  Forest
          Ponderosa pine
          Douglas fir
          Englemann spruce
          Aspen
          Gambel oak
Mule deer
Black bear
Wild turkey
Band-taxled pigeon
Beaver
Chipmunk species
Clark's nutcracker
Dipper
Coyote
Bobcat
associated underground coal mines)  can cause ecological impacts:
land  use, population increases, water: use and water pollution,  and
air quality changes.  With the exception of  land use,  the quanti-
ties  of each of  these associated with one mine-power plant complex
were  given in previous sections of  this chapter.  Land-use quan-
tities  are given in this  section and the others are summarized.
Land  used by a 3,000 MWe  power plant is about 2,4000 acres and  by
                                   250
-------
its associated underground coal mine, 1,590 acres.1  Urban
population in the scenario area is expected to increase due to the
manpower required for construction and operation of the facilities.
During construction, direct employment by one mine-power plant
complex peaks at 3,360 workers 7 years after the start.  During
the operational phase, direct employment is about 6,440 workers.
Each facility will demand from 18,000 to 30,000 acre-feet of water
per year and contribute contaminants to surface and groundwater
only as evaporative ponds leak or erode.  In the vicinity of the
Kaiparowits plant, ground level ambient air concentrations of S02
may be as high as 229 yg/m3.  In the vicinity of the Escalante
plant, annual concentrations of 862 are 11.2 yg/m3, and 3-hour
concentrations are 1,060 yg/m3.

4.5.4  Impacts

     The nature of the ecological impacts caused by these factors
depends on the plant and animal community type on which they are
imposed.  For example, the impact of land use depends on whether
desert shrub, riparian, or pinyon-juniper communities are being
used.  Figure 4-11 shows the distribution of energy facilities
and associated human activities likely to have the greatest impact
on ecosystems.  Some of these land-use trends are now evident or
could occur regardless of energy-related growth.  Their extent is
directly related to the number of people drawn into the area by
energy resource developments.  A scenario, which calls for two
complexes to be developed according to a specified time schedule
(see Table 4-1),  is used here as the vehicle through which the
extent of the impacts are explored.  Impacts caused by land use,
population increase, water use and water pollution, and by air
quality changes are discussed.

A.  To 1980

     During the 1975-1980 time period, construction of the Kai-
parowits power plant will begin, with the labor force peaking in
1980.  Construction activity during most of this time period will
be limited to clearing the Kaiparowits plant site, building heavy
duty access roads, and laying the plant water line.  Table 4-39
shows the expected land use by the proposed energy facilities
and urban population in Kane and Garfield counties from 1975-2000.
Land use in 1980  by the urban population only (since neither of
the plants or mines are completed) totals about 828 acres, approx-
imately equally divided between pinyon-juniper woodland and shrub
grassland.  Table 4-40 summarizes these habitat losses.

     The loss of  414 acres of pinyon-juniper and of salt-tolerant
shrub grass land by 1980 (Table 4-40) in the scenario area would


     Includes only that portion of the mine site to 'be occupied
by surface structures.

                               251
-------
        Coal Mine
        Limestone Quarry
        Existing Roads
        Proposed Roads
        Water Line and Pumping Station
        Transmission Line
 «"r.v'-V  Probable Recreation
        Probable Housing and Business
-'£&??.V;  Probable Recreation Concentration
       FIGURE  4-11:   HUMAN  ACTIVITIES  IN  THE  KAIPAROWITS/
                           ESCALANTE  AREA
                                         252
-------
      TABLE  4-39:   LAND USE IN  KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE  SCENARIO
                     (acres)a

By Energy Facilities
1st Power Plant (3,000 MWe)
2nd Power Plant (3,000 MWe)
Underground Coal Mines (11.2 MMtpy)
Underground Coal Mines (11.2 MMtpy)
Subtotal
By Urban Population
Kane County
Residential
Streets
Commercial
Public and Community Facilities
Industry
Subtotal
Garfield County
Residential
Streets
Commercial
Public and Community Facilities
Industry
Subtotal
Subtotal
Total Land Use
Total Land in Scenario Area 5,888,640
Kane County 2,570,240
Garfield County 3,318,400
1975








165
33
4
10
16
228

165
33
4
10
16
228
456
456



1980








373
75
9
23
37
517

224
45
5
14
22
310
827
827



1990

2,400
2,400
1,59(T
1,590
7,980


575
115
14
36
58
798

712
142
17
44
71
986
1,784
9,764



2000

2,400
2,400
1,590
1,590
7,980


603
121
14
37
60
835

747
149
18
46
75
1,035
1,870
9,850



MWe = megawatt-electric
MMtpy = million tons per year
 values in each column are cumulative up to year shown.

 Acres used by the urban population were calculated using population estimates
in Tables 4-24 and 4-25 for Kane and Garfield counties,  respectively,  and
assuming:  residential land = 50 acres per 1,000 population;  streets = 10 acres
per 1,000 population; commercial land =1.2 acres per 1,000 population;  public
and community facilities =3.1 acres per 1,000 population;  and industry  = 5
acres per 1,000 population.  Adopted from THK Associates, Inc.   Impact Analy-
sis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry:   Regional Devel-
opment and Land Use Study.  Denver, Colo.:   THK Associates, 1974.
/->
 Includes only that portion of the mine site to be occupied by surface structures.
                                     253
-------
           TABLE 4-40:  HABITAT LOSSES OVER TIME IN THE
                        KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE SCENARIO
                        (acres)
TYPE
Piny on- juniper
Salt-tolerant
shrub grassland
Plateau conifers
Ponderosa pine
Sagebrush
Barren land
Total:
1980
414

414




828
1990
7,295

1,844
447


178
9,764
2000
7,305

1,844
447
65
11
178
9,850
eliminate the forage normally utilized in a year by 4 to 5 cows
with calves.1  Normally, these lands are used for only 6 months
in the winter or summer.  Therefore, the maximum number of cow-
with-calf units represented by this loss is 8 to 10.  However,
not all lands in the scenario area are grazed under the present
Bureau of Land Management (BLM) program.  Consequently, potential
livestock reductions are less than this maximum.

     Population increases during this period center in a new  town
to be built on East Clark Bench; the town is expected to have a
population over 3,000 by 1980.  Population in Kane County as  a
whole increases by 56 percent  from 1975 to 1980.  The higher  levels
of human activity during this  construction phase will cause some
local stress to wildlife.  For example, increased access to the
plateau will result in  a significant increase in game poaching, a
problem typically observed during construction periods in other
western areas.2  Poaching, together with the present steady
downtrend in the Kaiparowits herd, could have measurable effects
on total numbers.  The  new town is located in the range of the
East Clark Bench antelope herd, which may ultimately disappear


     Carrying capacity for livestock has been assumed to be  10-15
acres of forage per month for a cow and calf in pinyon-juniper
rangeland and 18-22 acres of forage per month for a cow and calf
in salt-tolerant shrub-grassland.
     2Unlike legitimate single-sex hunting, which is also likely
to increase, poaching takes animals of both sexes and can affect
the population's ability to maintain its numbers by reproduction.
                                254
-------
from the area through the combined effects of poaching, harassment,
and habitat deterioration.  These antelope, numbering perhaps 25
or 30, are the remnants of an attempt at reintroduction.  However,
habitat quality, rather than available area, appears to limit
their numbers, and they are expected to decline with or without
the development of the new town.  Birds of prey are also tradi-
tional targets for illegal shooting.  The problem of illegal
killing will worsen when the Cannonville-Kaiparowits highway is
built.  In addition, increased recreational demands may be expec-
ted and will likely exert their greatest influence on the desert
ecosystem below the plateau rim.  Extensive areas of the BLM land,
which are potentially attractive sites for off-the-road vehicle
(ORV) use, lie within easy access of Page and the new town.  Heavy
use of these areas may eventually result in extensive local ero-
sion and accompanying vegetation loss.1

     Since neither power plant is operating during this time per-
iod, impacts caused by water use or air quality changes are mini-
mal .

B.  To 1990

     By the end of the second scenario decade, the Kaiparowits
and Escalante plants will both be on-line, transmission lines will
be built, and population will have risen sharply.  Also during
this time frame, the limestone quarry to supply the needs of
power plant scrubbers will be opened.

     In 1990, land use by the energy facilities will be 7,980 acres,
and by the urban population, 1,984 acres (Table 4-39).  The per-
centages of land in Kane and Garfield counties used by the energy
facilities and by the urban population are 0.14 percent and 0.03
percent, respectively.  Habitat loss by 1990 is principally
pinyon-juniper woodland with smaller amounts of shrub-grassland,
plateau conifers, and barren land, as shown in Table 4-40.  The
pinyon-juniper habitat supports a wide variety of vertebrate spe-
cies and constitutes the bulk of the winter range of the Kaiparo-
wits deer herd.2  Deer are distributed unevenly over the plateau,
in small groups which do not fully utilize the habitat available.

     1 The seriousness of the impact of ORV use will depend on the
success of efforts to control it on public lands, the kinds of
trails made, and their manner of use.  Where a trail is used infre"
quently and plant roots are not damaged, the vegetation may recover
in one season.  However, roads which climb slopes at steep angles
and break the surface of the soil may begin to gully after about
5 years from infrequent but intense thunderstorms.  U.S., Depart-
ment of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Paria Unit Staff.
Personal communication.

     2Utah, Division of Wildlife Resources, Personal communication.

                                255
-------
One estimate suggests that the proposed plant site may be used by
some 60 deer seasonally, or year-round by roughly 20.   The cumu-
lative total loss of pinyon-juniper woodland constitutes roughly
3 percent of the Kaiparowits deer range.  Consequently, it is not
expected that overall carrying capacity will be significantly re-
duced.  In addition, a total of 1,220 acres of the pinyon-juniper
habitat lost in this decade is claimed by transmission line rights-
of-way.  While vegetation is initially cleared entirely, regrowth
in the absence of root competition from trees may be equal or supe-
rior to the original vegetation as wildlife forage, especially if
the right-of-way is reseeded.   This additional productive vegeta-
tional discontinuity will probably result in local increase in
small vertebrate diversity.  The limestone quarry lies adjacent to
the range of a healthy antelope herd, but the bulk of the habitat
to be disturbed is unsuitable for them.

     Agricultural impacts will stem from the loss of grazing land.
Excluding transmission line right-of-way, which may be reseeded
and recover its grazing value, the 9,149 acres of forage (pinyon-
juniper and salt-tolerant shrub grassland) used by the energy
facilities and urban population by 1990  (Table 4-40)  is equivalent
to the yearly forage requirements of 48 to 70 cows with calves.2
Not all of the land disturbed is normally allotted to grazing;
therefore, these numbers are a maximum.  Based on 6 month pasturing,
this amount of forage might support 95-139 cows with calves.

     Population increases during this period may be expected to
affect habitat quality.  By 1990 the population of Kane and Gar-
field counties will rise (with respect to 1975 population)  248
percent and 330 percent, respectively.  The Kaiparowits new town
will have about 7,000 residents in 1990.  Page, Arizona, will act
as a secondary focus of growth, and will have grown by a cumula-
tive 33 percent by 1990.  The town of Escalante will grow from
650 to about 9,700 in this period.  These higher populations may
be expected to influence habitat quality in a variety of ways.
For example, increased traffic on new roads crossing the Kaiparo-
wits Plateau will add to the yearly road kill of animals, espe-
cially since the proposed Cannonville-Glen County City highway
right-of-way transects the present direction of deer migration.
Increased access to the plateau will probably increase the amount
of game poaching and extend it to a wider area.  Cumulative effects
could result in continued decline in deer numbers.
     :U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.
Draft Environmental Impact Statement:  Proposed Kaiparowits Project,
6 vols.  Salt Lake City, Utah:  Bureau of Land Management, 1976.

     2Carrying capacity for livestock had been assumed to be 10-15
acres of forage per month for a cow and calf in pinyon-juniper
rangeland and 18-22 acres in salt-tolerant shrub grassland.

                               256
-------
     Water for the two plants is pumped from Lake Powell and piped
to the plant sites.  The municipalities will use groundwater.
Both of these withdrawals as well as coal mining within aquifers
and discharge of municipal wastewater affect aquatic and terres-
trial ecosystems.

     Removal of water from Lake Powell for the Kaiparowits pro-
ject has been predicted to result in salinity increases of roughly
2 mg/£ at Imperial Dam.l  The present scenario would no more than
double this effect, which could constitute approximately 0.3 per-
cent of the salinity projected for the year 2000.2  Thus, the
impact of water withdrawal on downstream water use by wildlife
will be negligible.

     Mining and groundwater withdrawal for municipal use will
probably bring about a decrease in discharge to springs and seeps
over an unspecified portion of the area.  These discharges have a
strong influence on the distribution of many kinds of wildlife,
such as deer, mourning doves, and numerous small birds and mammals
with restricted ranges that require accessible water to sustain
life.  The cumulative effect on the plateau ecosystem of ground-
water losses, depending on the extent to which accessible water
sources are affected, will be a combination of redistribution of
water dependent species away from depeleted springs or seeps and
perhaps a decrease in their overall population.

     The loss of water from these sources will be partially miti-
gated by the addition of surge ponds on the water lines and on-
site raw water reservoirs.  Reservoirs located in the pinyon-
juniper zone might be used by a variety of wildlife, provided that
deer-proof fencing is not used.  However, these reservoirs will
not replace natural springs and seeps that support vegetation.
Surge ponds will be located in the desert ecosystem where they
will constitute a distinct benefit if not restrictively fenced.
Partridge, pheasant, or quail could establish new populations
around these ponds, provided other habitat requirements are met.

     Treated municipal wastes might be discharged into the Esca-
lante River from the town of Escalante.  These wastes usually con-
tain large amounts of nutrients that can stimulate algal growth.
The amount of discharge would be insufficient to maintain base


     ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.
Draft Environmental Impact Statement:  Proposed Kaiparowits Project,
5 vols.  Salt Lake^City, Utah:  Bureau of Land Management, 1975.

     2Published estimates range from 1,220 mg/£  (BuRec) to 1,340
mg/£ (Colorado River Board of California).  Note that if water
for energy development were instead used for agriculture, runoff
from croplands would result in larger increases in downstream
salinity.

                               257
-------
flow in the dry summer period.  Nuisance algal blooms, causing
odors and reducing dissolved oxygen, could result if the effluent
stagnates in pools.  Adverse impacts of this kind would be greatest
at periods of low flow.

     After the two power plants begin operations, air pollutants
of various kinds will enter the atmosphere.  Ground-level concen-
trations of S02 are estimated to reach peak 3-hour average values
of about 1,060 ug/m3 where plume impaction on high terrain may
occur (see Section 4.2).  This concentration is equivalent to
about 0.4 ppm, which is below acute damage levels for those desert
plants which have been tested (acute damage has been measured in
desert plants typically in the range of 2 to 10 ppm for 2 to 6
hour exposures).   More sensitive desert species may exist but
have not been tested.  The potential for chronic damage may exist
but there are insufficient data to support a conclusion.  Generally,
damage due to acid rainfall is not expected due to the low humidity
and limited precipitation, although periods of active plant growth
and increased susceptibility to acid rain may be related to the
area's rainfall season.

C.   To  2000

     By  2000  land  use  by  the  energy  facilities and urban popula-
tion will total  9,850  acres,  less  than  0.2 percent of the amount
of  land  in Kane  and  Garfield  counties.  Between  1990  and 2000, no
additional land  is required for the  energy facilities themselves;
but  urban expansion  continues to require habitat directly  (see
Table 4-40) ,  and population increases continue to affect habitat
quality  indirectly.  By 2000, the  population of  Garfield County
and  Kane County  should more than triple the 1975 population  (see
Section  4.4).  Thus, living space, water,  and recreation needs in
these counties will  lead  to both local  and areawide changes  in
land use.  ORV use,  camping,  hiking, and other activities will
continue to  affect vegetation locally and  contribute  to erosion.
New  trails to be developed by the  Forest Service to accommodate
increased recreational use will provide access to previously  iso-
lated areas.

     Urban growth  around  Escalante,  Page,  and the Kaiparowits new
town will result in  an increase in ORV  recreation on  the deserts
near Lake Powell.  A new  road planned to parallel Lake  Powell's
north shore  will open  access  to new  areas.  In addition, poaching
will continue  along  roads and near towns,  although levels may de-
cline somewhat after the  Escalante construction  peak.   Residential
growth  will  also result in fragmentation of habitat,  particularly
along highways following  river valleys.  If allowed to  run  free,
                               258
-------
dogs may also affect wildlife in the area.1  The cumulative
effect of these influences will be to reduce the abundance and
diversity of wildlife within as much as 5 to 10 miles of residen-
tial centers.

     Increased populations will add to the recreational pressure
placed on the Dixie National Forest and nearby highlands.  Major
potential impacts include loss of vegetation cover, particularly
around lakeshores and streambanks as a consequence of uncontrolled
camping and ORV use associated with fishing.  Some summer deer
range could also be affected.  Loss of shore vegetation, if not
controlled by restricting use of these areas, can lead to erosion
and siltation problems which could lower the production of fish
in lakes already under stress from a long-term drying trend.
Continuing growth in fishing pressure will, by this decade, have
depleted naturally reproducing trout populations, and the fishery
will probably be maintained exclusively by stocking.  Small par-
cels of privately owned land within the National Forest are expec-
ted to be developed as recreational subdivisions.  This change in
use will disturb wildlife and tend to fragment winter deer range.
Hunting will also increase, but it can be controlled by employing
management practices such as setting hunting seasons, limiting
the numbers of permits issued, and reducing bag limits.  Demand,
however, will probably exceed the amount of deer and, perhaps,
upland game birds.

     Some of the long-term changes which may occur as a result of
the handling of wastewater from the power plants are potentially
significant.  For example, large wastewater impoundments may
attract wildlife during dry periods, but it is not likely that
animals will prefer the highly polluted water to the clean water
in the plant source water reservoirs.2  Also, materials leached
from these ponds may enter groundwater.  Although recent evidence
suggests that trace metals do not migrate far through soils, some
salts, such as sulfates and carbonates, may.3  The fate of the
soluble organic compounds is uncertain.  After the facilities are
abandoned, the chemicals left in the evaporation ponds may

     1 Dogs have become a serious concern in some parts of Colorado;
a review of the problem, from the sportsman's viewpoint, is given
in Oertle, V. Lee.  "What's Happening to Western States' Deer
Hunting?"  Sports Afield (September 1975).

     2Crawford, James C., and D.C.  Church.  "Response of Black-
Tailed Deer to Various Chemical Taste Stimuli."  Journal of Wild-
life Management, Vol. 35 (November 1971),  pp. 210-215.
     3
      Holland, W.F., et al.  The Environmental Effects of Trace
Elements in the Pond Disposal of Ash and Flue Gas Desulfurization
Sludge, Final Report, Electric Power Research Institute Research
Project No. 202.  Austin, Tex.:  Radian Corporation, 1975, p. 3.

                               259
-------
eventually enter surface waters from dike failure or erosion.  If
high concentrations enter the shallow bays of Lake Powell, for
example, fish might be killed or avoid the contaminated areas.

     Considerable concern has been expressed over the long-term
contamination of Lake Powell by trace elements emitted in plant
stack gases.  For example, mercury can reach the lake from the
facilities by direct fallout from emissions and by runoff.  Cal-
culations made for mercury deposition from the Kaiparowits plant
alone range from 16 to 480 pounds of mercury entering the lake
each year.  These numbers are 1 to 27 percent of the present esti-
mated rate of addition from natural sources.  An unknown fraction
of this input is converted to the organic form of mercury and enters
the food chain.  The emissions from the Escalante plant would con-
tribute additional mercury, although the position of the site
makes it likely that the amount would be less than that of Kai-
parowits.

     There is evidence to suggest that very small increases in
mercury entering the aquatic food chain could result in elevations
of mercury levels in fish tissues exceeding the limits set by the
Food and Drug Administration (FDA)  as safe for human consumption.
Current levels in some predatory fish in Lake Powell exceed FDA
standards of 500 parts per billion.  Although based on limited
knowledge, the movement of mercury in the form of an elemental
vapor from power plant emissions into the aquatic food chain has
been estimated to cause increases of 10 to 50 percent, depending
on the number of plants, their location, and coal characteristics.1
These estimates are based on limited data, however.

     Arsenic additions from the facilities will deposit an esti-
mated total of between 600 and 5,000 pounds of arsenic per year.
Unknown fractions of this would enter Lake Powell.  The effects
of this amount of arsenic on both terrestrial and aquatic portions
of the food chain are largely unknown.

     Additional toxic substances will be emitted from the power
plants, including about one thousand pounds of fluorides per
year.2  Manganese,  chromium, nickel, and lead will be emitted in
quantities comparable to the mercury releases.   Expected ambient
concentrations and effects of these materials on the ecosystem are


     ^tandiford, D.R., L.D. Potter, and D.E. Kidd.   Mercury in
the Lake Powell Ecosystem, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin
No. 1.  Los Angeles, Calif.:  University of California, Institute
of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 1973, p. 16.

     2U.S., Department of the Interior,  Bureau of Land Management.
Final Environmental Impact Statement:  Proposed Kaiparowits Project,
6 Vols.  Salt Lake City, Utah:   Bureau of Land Management, 1976,
p. 111-65.

                               260
-------
         TABLE 4-41:
SUMMARY OF MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING
ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS

Class A
Impacts :


Class B
Impacts :








Class C
Impacts :








Unknown:



1975-1980
Increased recrea-
tional use of high
plateaus
Illegal shooting
Damage and harass-
ment associated
with ORV's in
desert areas,
habitat fragmen-
tation, land-use,
road kill, and
harassment
(urban influence)
zone
Direct habitat
removal
Grazing losses











1980-1990
Increased recrea-
tional use of high
plateaus
Illegal shooting
Damage and harass-
ment associated
with ORV's in
desert areas, ur-
ban influence,
altered springs
and seep discharge



Direct habitat re-
moval
Grazing losses
"Criteria" air pol-
lutant emissions

Local eutrophica-
tion of Escalante
River by municipal
sewage discharge
Addition of mer-
cury and other
trace elements to
Lake Powell
1990-2000
Increased recrea-
cional use of high
plateaus

Damage and harass-
ment associated
with ORV's in
desert areas, ur-
ban influence, al-
tered springs and
seep discharge



Direct habitat re-
moval
Grazing losses
"Criteria" air
pollutant emis-
si OTIS




Addition of trace
elements to Lake
Powell

ORV = off-the-road vehicle
largely unknown.  Much larger quantities of  the materials  will
either be removed from stack gases and deposited  in  the  evapora-
tive settling ponds or placed in ash disposal  sites.

4.5.5  Summary of Ecological Impacts

     Table 4-41 summarizes the impacts discussed  in  the  preceding
sections under three classes.  Class C impacts are those which
affect very small proportions (less than 3 percent)  of the total
                               261
-------
available habitat of any given kind, and/or occur infrequently,
although the effect may be locally severe.  Class B impacts are
more widespread and have effects which may noticeably alter the
composition of the ecosystem or selectively affect a particular
species.  Class A impacts can potentially affect large proportions
of a given habitat type or have severe impacts on populations of
one or more species.

     The cumulative impact of energy resource development on the
ecosystem will most likely be to lower the diversity of wildlife
locally, increase erosion, and contribute to the decline of several
species.  Specific populations of game animals and fish will ex-
perience selectively heavy stresses and decline in number.  These
impacts will result from the combined effects of direct habitat
loss, habitat fragmentation, and diffuse human disturbances.  Im-
pacts on several major species are summarized in Table 4-42.
Major contributors to these disturbances will include the following;
habitat degradation in such areas as the high plateaus due to dif-
fuse recreational activity; subdivision of lands for recreational
developments; growth of residential and commercial land use and
its influence on the quality of surrounding habitat; increased
illegal hunting; and increased fishing in high plateau lakes.

     Although these disturbances will not break down the struc-
tural and functional integrity of the ecosystems, local areas will
probably experience internal adjustments affecting individual
species populations.  For example, development activities and
anticipated increases in sport hunting for predators may minimize
the importance of the mountain lion as a natural predator of mule
deer, but coyotes (and possibly wild dogs) will assume greater
importance as predators.

     Cumulative adverse influences are also expected to result in
a long-term decline of the Kaiparowits deer herd and probably will
hasten the loss of antelope from East Clark Bench.1  Illegal
shooting could, over the long term, cause declines in populations
of the larger birds of prey.  Aquatic ecosystems in the Dixie
National Forest may also be locally degraded unless access is con-
trolled; this stress, coupled with heavy fishing pressure, will
have a severe impact on resident reproducing trout populations.

     With the introduction of the energy facilities and projected
population increase of approximately 40,000 people, some long-
term alterations of vegetation may occur on a local scale.
          influence of the scenario's impacts on habitat in the
Dixie National Forest and on the benchlands just east of the Esca-
lante River could render them less suitable or unsuitable for rein-
troduction of elk and antelope, now under consideration by the
Utah Division of Wildlife Resources.

                                262
-------
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                                                 263
-------
     Many of the immediate and direct impacts of construction
activities and facility siting will probably have only short-term
effects; other impacts may have more lasting effects.  Some plant
communities will be disrupted by immediate stresses and will under-
go plant replacement or succession.  Succession is not well under-
stood in desert plant communities, perhaps because of the very
long time required for change.1  A series of successional stages
will probably occur on those sites directly disrupted by energy
development and damaged by ORV use and subsequent erosion, and
their return to a climax stage of development may take many years.2

     One potential long-term effect from energy development on
future ecological systems may come from eventual accumulation of
trace elements emitted from the power plants and entering the
aquatic food chain in Lake Powell.  However, incomplete under-
standing of the dynamics of the movements of trace elements (e.g.,
mercury) into and through the ecosystem make it difficult to pre-
dict the potential concentration in fish, although some studies
indicate potentially significant increases.  Also, the degradation
of dikes enclosing the waste materials deposited in evaporation
ponds may allow release of toxic compounds which will eventually
enter the biological components of the ecological system.

     Opening the area by providing easier access will be considered
a benefit by some groups and a detriment by others.  The wilder-
ness character of the area will be largely lost; however, larger
numbers of people will have access to the recreational and scenic
benefits of the area.

4.6  OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE

     A major benefit resulting from the hypothetical energy devel-
opment called for in the Kaiparowits/Escalante scenario will be
the production of 6,000 MWe of electricity.  This benefit will
accrue more to people outside than inside the areas.  Locally,
the principal potential benefits are economic, including substan-
tial increases in per capita income, retail and wholesale trade,
and secondary economic development.  In addition, Kane and Gar-
field Counties can receive substantial new tax revenues, and the


     1 On dune sands in Idaho, a situation somewhat analogous to a
desert, Chadwick and Dalke recognized five stages of succession:
Stage 1 lasting about 30 years; Stage 2 lasting 20 to 70 years;
Stage 3 lasting 50 to 70 years; and Stage 4 lasting 700 to 900
years before the final or climax stage becomes dominant.  Chadwick,
H.W., and P.D. Dalke.  "Plant Succession on Dune Sands in Fremont
County, Idaho."  Ecology, Vol. 46  (Autumn 1965), pp. 765-780.

     2Whitfield, C.J., and H.L. Anderson.  "Secondary Succession
in the Desert Plains Grassland."  Ecology, Vol. 19  (April 1938),
pp. 171-80.

                                264
-------
state of Utah could benefit noticeably.  These financial benefits
can support the expansion of public services and professional
staffs presently needed in southern Utah.  Some persons, both
locals and tourists, will consider new roads in previously inac-
cessible areas to be a benefit.

     The impact analysis indicates that social, economic, and polit-
ical impacts which could be expected in the Kaiparowits/Escalante
area as a result of energy resource development tend to be a func-
tion of:  the labor and capital intensity of the energy facilities
and, when multiple facilities are involved, of scheduling their
construction.  These factors determine the pace and extent of
migration of people to the scenario area as well as the financial
and managerial capability of local governments to provide services
and facilities for the increased population.  Labor forces required
for construction and operation of the scenario facilities increase
the population in the scenario area directly and indirectly.
More labor is required for construction of the facilities than for
operation; thus, construction of the facilities can be scheduled
to minimize the population instability.  The capital intensity of
the facilities determines the amount of revenue generated; a prop-
erty tax and sales tax are tied to the capital costs of the facil-
ities, and royalty payments are tied to the value of the coal.  At
the Kaiparowits/Escalante site, towns are small, a factor that
tends to exacerbate negative impacts associated with population
increases.  If some of the labor force includes young people who
had previously migrated out of the area as well as local unemployed
laborers, population increases would not be as great nor would
they include as many strangers to the community.  Utilization of
the local labor force mitigates negative social and political im-
pacts .

     Many of the major negative impacts that can be anticipated if
all the energy facilities are constructed according to the hypo-
thesized time schedule will result either directly or indirectly
from the expected 300 percent population increase for southern
Utah by 1990.  Some local governments will be hard-pressed initially
to provide the services required.   Existing school, housing, health,
and public safety services will be initially overwhelmed by the
influx of workers and their families.  Local governments in the
area are generally not well-equipped to respond to the needs of
this new population.  However,  planning capabilities are being up-
graded, and the adequacy of existing controls, such as zoning, is
now being assessed.  These problems are surmountable, and the
economic impacts of population increases will be predominantly
positive by 1990.  With the exception of Page, long-term revenues
produced by the development will be more than adequate to pay for
the necessary services and the required additions to the
                               265
-------
professional staffs of local governments.1  Since it will not
share in the direct tax revenues produced by the energy facilities,
Page will subsidize services to those workers and their families
who choose to live there.

     Newcomers could outnumber natives very early during the
development.  As indicated in the social and cultural impacts
discussion, the lifestyles of the natives and newcomers are likely
to be quite different.  While small in terms of numbers, at least
some of the natives will consider the resultant political and
social changes detrimental.

     Air quality impacts of energy development in the Kaiparowits/
Escalante area result from emissions of pollutants from both the
power plant and those associated with the population.  At the
Kaiparowits/Escalante site, SOa emissions from a power plant with
no emission controls would meet the NSPS for S02 because coal in
the Kaiparowits/Escalante area has a low sulfur content (0.5 per-
cent) .  However, the complex terrain and poor dispersion potential
characteristic of the scenario area would contribute to high
ground-level concentrations of pollutants as a consequence of
plume impaction.  Even with emission control, the Escalante plant
may produce air impacts which exceed significant deterioration
standards "or'a Class II area.  Visibility will also be adversely
affected, especially during winter stagnation periods.  Given the
extensive recreational use of the area, particularly in the num-
erous nearby national parks and forests, this impact must be con-
sidered significant.

     Power plant scrubbers are rated as 80 percent efficient in
removing S02 in this analysis.  However, scrubbers with 95 percent
efficiency would be required to insure that no violation of Class
II SC-2 standards occurs.  Elimination of scrubbers would result
in significant violations of anticipated nondegradation air quality
standards and would violate short-term  (3-hour and 24-hour) pri-
mary and secondary air quality standards.

     Water impacts associated with energy development in the
Kaiparowits/Escalante area are caused both by the water require-
ments of, and effluents produced by a power plant.  Water related
impacts associated with population increases are minor in compari-
son to those associated with a power plant.  Since most of the
water use by a power plant is for cooling, impacts which result
from water consumption can be reduced greatly by the use of "inter-
mediate wet" (a combination of wet and dry) cooling technology.
Effluents from the facilities will be ponded to protect water


     1There might be problems due to a lag between the need to pro-
vide services and receipt of income.  However, this problem is
lessened by Utah's law permitting local governments to require the
prepayment of taxes.

                               266
-------
quality in the scenario area.  However, the large withdrawals of
water from Lake Powell may have a salt concentrating effect on the
Colorado River.

     Ecological impacts associated with energy development in the
Kaiparowiirs/Escalante area depend on land use, population increases,
water use and water pollution, and air quality changes.  Loss of
habitat on land used by facility structures and by the population
is permanent.  Habitat fragmentation and recreational activities
will further reduce the carrying capacity of the characteristic
community types (desert shrub grassland, desert grassland, and
pinyon-juniper woodland) to support wildlife, both game and non-
game animals.  Reduced stream flow due to water withdrawn for
energy development will reduce the amount of aquatic and riparian
habitat, which is already very limited in the area.  In addition,
inadequately treated municipal sewage could cause excessive plank-
ton growth.  Additions of mercury into the Lake Powell ecosystem
will exacerbate the problem of current mercury concentrations in
some predatory fish which exceed the FDA standards.  Finally,
chronic or acute damage to crops and native plants in the scenario
area may result due to poorly dispersed SOa emissions from, the
power plants.
                               267
-------
                           CHAPTER 5

          THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
                 AT THE NAVAJO/FARMINGTON AREA
5.1  INTRODUCTION

     Energy development proposed in the Navajo/Farmington area
includes coal mining, electrical power generation, Lurgi and
Synthane high-British thermal unit (Btu)  gasification, Synthoil
liquefaction, an underground uranium mine, and a uranium mill.
The area within which development is  to take place is shown in
Figure 5-1; Figure 5-2 shows the location of specific facilities.
Electricity generated in the area will be transported via extra-
high voltage transmission lines to demand centers in Arizona,
California, and New Mexico.   The synthetic gas will be fed into
existing pipeline networks in the Southwest, and the synthetic
liquids will be pipelined to western  and/or midwestern refineries.
These facilities will be constructed  between 1977 and 2000.  The
construction timetable and the technologies to be deployed are
shown in Table 5-1.1

     In all four impact sections of this  chapter (air, water,
social and economic,  and ecological), the factors that produce
impacts are identified and discussed  separately for each energy
facility type.  In the air and water  sections, the impacts caused
by those factors are also discussed separately for each facility
type and, in combination, for a scenario  in which all facilities
are constructed according to the scenario schedule.  In the social
and economic and ecological sections, only the combined impacts
of the scenario are discussed.  This  distribution is made because
social, economic, and ecological effects  are, for the most part,
higher order impacts.  Consequently,  facility-by-facility impact
discussions would have been repetitive in nearly every respect.


     JWhile this hypothetical development may parallel develop-
ments proposed by the Public Service  Company of New Mexico, Utah
International, Inc.,  Western Gasification Company, Consolidation
Coal Company, El Paso Natural Gas Company and others, it must be
stressed that the development identified  here is hypothetical.
As with the others, this scenario was used to structure the
assessment of a particular combination of technologies and
existing conditions.

                              268
-------
                           COLORADO
Topography
    Above 9000 feet
    8000-9000 feet
    7000-8000 feet
    6000- 7000 feet
    5000-6000 feet
    Below 5000 feet
                                    r
FIGURE  5-1:    THE  NAVAJO/FARMINGTON  SCENARIO  AREA
                                       269
-------
                           COLORADO
                                     " O I
                                      Si
                                      3!
                                      »j     UTE MOUNTAIN
                                      -L. INDIAN RESERVATION
                                      _ {—..—•»—»._._._.._._.—.,_._._
                                                                    Farmington
              Coal Mine

         — •— Transmission Line

        === Pipeline

        iHHiHtui'i Conveyor
FIGURE  5-2:
THE  LOCATION  OF  ENERGY  DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES

IN THE  NAVAJO/FARMINGTON AREA
                                     270
-------
   TABLE  5-1:   RESOURCES AND  HYPOTHESIZED FACILITIES
                    AT NAVAJO/FARMINGTON
Resources
Cosl ^ (billions of tons)
Resources 2 . 4
Proved Reserves 1.9





Technologies
Extraction
Four surface area mines ox
varying capacity using
draglines


One underground uranium mine
Conversion
One Lurgi coal gasification
plant operating at 73% thermal
efficiency; nickel-catalyzed
methanation process; Glaus
plant H2S removal; wet forced-
draft cooling towers
One 3,000 MWe power plant
consisting of four 750 MWe
turbine generators; 34% plant
efficiency; 80% efficient lime-
stone scrubbers; 99% efficient
electrostatic precipitator; and
wet forced-draft cooling towers
One Synthane coal gasification
plant operating at 80% thermal
efficiency; nickel-catalyzed
methanation process; Glaus
plant H2S removal; wet forced-
draft cooling towers
One Synthoil coal liquefaction
plant operating at 92% thermal
efficiency; Claus plant H2S
removal; wet forced-draft
cooling towers
One Uranium Mill
Transportation
Coal
Conveyor belts from mines to
each facility
Gas
One 30-inch pipeline
Oil
One 16-inch pipeline
Electricity
Two EHV lines
CHARACTERISTICS

Coal
Heat Content 8,580 Btu's/lb
Moisture 16 %
Volatile Matter 30 %
Fixed Carbon 34 %
Ash 19 %
Sulfur 0.7 %
FACILITY
SIZE
7 . 3 MMtpy
12.2 MMtpy
6 . 6 MMtpy
12.2 MMtpy
1,100 mt

250 MMscfd





1,500 MWe
1,500 MWe





250 MMscfd





100,000 bbl/day




1,000 mt





250 MMcf

100,000 bbl/day

765 *V
COMPLETION
DATE
1979
1984
1989
1989
1935

1980





1934
1985





1990





2000




1985





1980

2000

1934
FACILITY
SERVICED
Lurgi Plant
Power Plant
Synthane
Synthoil
Uranium Mill































Lurgi Plant

Synthcil

Power Plant
Btu's/lb = British thermal units per pound
MMtpy  = million tons per year
mt = metric tons
MMscfd = million standard cubic feet per day
H2S =  hydrogen sulfide
MWe = megawatt-electric
bbl/day = barrels  per day
MMcf = million cubic feet
EHV = extra-high voltage
kV = kilovolts
aNielsen, George F.  Keystone Coal Industry Manual:   1974.  New York, N.Y.:   Mining
Information Service, 1.9/4, p~I477; proved reserves are  calculated as 80 percent of
the defined resources.  Values are for strippable coal  from the Navajo field.
                                      271
-------
     In addition to this hypothetical energy development, the
Navajo Indian Irrigation Project will become operational during
the late 1970's.  Because of its size, this development is also
taken into account when impacts are analyzed.

     Two distinctive cultures are found in the Navajo/Farmington
area:  the Indian culture centered on the Navajo Reservation,
and the predominantly non-Indian culture centered in Farmington
and Aztec.  A similar division exists in the economy of the area.

     San Juan County's non-Indian economy is diversified among
several sectors of activity.  Wholesale and retail trade, gov-
ernment, transportation and communications, mining, manufacturing,
and agriculture are among the principal employers within the
county.  The Indian economy is predominantly agricultural.

     The county is governed by a three-member board of commis-
sioners and served by a professional manager.  In 1975, a Plan-
ning and Research Department was established, primarily to assess
and respond to needs arising from new developments within the
county.

     Services provided in the unincorporated sections of the
county include police (a sheriff's department), fire (provided
jointly with the state), and highway construction and maintenance.
Public health care and public assistance are provided jointly
by the county and state.

     There are three incorporated urban areas in the county:
Farmington, Aztec, and Bloomfield.   Basic public services are
provided in all three, and a separate school district serves
each.  Farmington1s municipal power plant provides electricity
to these communities and the rural area.  The communities are
comparatively isolated in northwest New Mexico, despite a history
of continued growth and the widespread construction of permanent
masonry buildings.  No rail line services this area, and the prin-
cipal highways serving the region are winding, two lane roads
that make movement of large equipment and building materials dif-
ficult.  Although historically conservative, Farmington and
surrounding communities are nevertheless currently involved in
expanding government services to improve water supplies, sewage
treatment, airport facilities, and other municipal and county
projects.

     Although there are many unresolved questions concerning
relationships between Indians and non-Indians  (the applicability
of state laws to Indians, the applicability of Indian laws to
non-Indians, etc.), the Navajcs and Utes maintain local sover-
eignty over their reservation lands.  The Navajo Reservation,
on which several energy facilities will be located, is governed
                              272
-------
by a Tribal Cpuncil. l   Members of the Council are elected from
Chapters into which the Reservation is divided.  A Chairman of
the Tribal Council is elected at large.

     Within the past few years, the Navajos have expanded the
capabilities of the tribal government, largely in direct response
to prospective energy development.  For example, the Council is
now served by a professional planning staff, and environmental
and tax commissions have been established.

     The reservation is predominantly rural.  Shiprock, the only
urban area in the New Mexico portion of the reservation, is un-
incorporated and governed by the Tribal Council.

     The area to be developed is in the San Juan River Basin.
The San Juan, one of several perennial streams in the area, will
be the source of water for the proposed energy facilities.   Al-
though there is groundwater in the area, it is limited in quantity
and generally of poor quality.

     Rainfall averages only about 7 inches per year.  This limits
the amount and variety of vegetation, and the area contains most-
ly desert grasslands and shrubs.  In some locations, overgrazing
by Nava jo-owned sheep has led to elimination of vegetation and
serious soil erosion.

     Air quality in the area is already affected by the San Juan
and Four Corners power plants, refineries, and a variety of in-
dustrial facilities.  Blowing dust also affects existing air
quality.  Selected descriptive characteristics of the area are
summarized in Table 5-2.  In each of the following sections,
additional information is introduced as needed in the analysis
of impacts.

5.2  AIR IMPACTS2

5.2.1  Existing Conditions

A.  Background Pollutants

     Air quality in the Navajo/Farmington area is currently af-
fected by numerous emission sources, the largest of which are
             Monroe E.  Law and the American Indian.  Indianapolis,
Ind.:  Bobbs-Merrill, 1973; and Cohen, Felix S., ed.  Statutory
Compilation of the Indian Law, Survey.  Washington, D.C.:  Gov-
ernment Printing Office, 1940.

     2The federal standards referred to in this section are those
promulgated prior to the revisions mandated by the Clean Air Act
Ammendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685.


                              273
-------
            TABLE 5-2:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF
THE NAVAJO/FARMINGTON AREA
         Environment

           Elevation
           Precipitation
           Air Stability

           Vegetation
         Social and Economic
           (San Juan County)

           Land Ownership

             Indian
             Federal
             State
             Private

           Population Density

           Unemployment3

           Incomeb
       6,000-9,000 feet
       6-8 inches average annually
       Air stagnation during fall
         and winter
       Sparse grasses and shrubs
         with barren areas, pinyon
         and juniper in foothills
           60   %
           30   %
            5   %
            5   %

           11.3 per square mile

            8.2 %

       $3,147   per capita annual
        a!973 data.

        b!972 data.
the Four Corners and San Juan Power Plants (Figure 5-1).   Mea-
surements of the concentrations of criteria pollutants1  taken
in 1974 in the Four Corners area indicate that 24-hour average
particulate levels exceed both federal and New Mexico standards
     Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air quality
standards are in force:  carbon monoxide, nonmethane hydrocarbons
(HC),  nitrogen dioxide, oxidants, particulates,  and sulfur
dioxide.  Although only nonmethane HC are technically covered by
the standards, the more inclusive term "hydrocarbons" is gener-
ally used.  The HC standard serves as a guide for achieving
oxidant standards.
                               274
-------
due to blowing dust.1  However, measurements taken at the site
of the proposed Western Gasification Company gasification plants2
do not indicate violations of either particulate or sulfur diox-
ide (S02) standards.  Based on measurements, the annual average
background levels chosen as inputs to the air dispersion model
are:  SQ2, 20 micrograms per cubic meter (yg/m3); particulates,
40 pg/m3; and nitrogen dioxide (N02), 10 yg/m3.3

B.  Meteorological Conditions

     The worst dispersion conditions for the Navajo/Farmington
area are associated with stable air conditions, low wind speeds
(less than 5-10 miles per hour [mph]),  unchanging wind direction,
and relatively low mixing depths.4  These conditions are likely to
increase concentrations of pollutants from both ground level and
elevated sources.  Since worst-case dispersion conditions differ
     JUtah Engineering Experiment Station.  Air Pollution Inves-
tigation in the Vicinity of the Four Corners and San Juan Power
Plants, Progress Report.  Salt Lake City, Utah:  March 1973, and
amended by letter January 1974.  As cited in U.S., Department of
the Interior.  Draft Environmental Statement for Proposed Modifi-
cation of Four Corners Power Plant and Navajo Mine.  Washington,
D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1975.

     2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Western Gasification Company (WESCO)  Coal Gasification Project
and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New
Mexico;  Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols.  Salt Lake City,
Utah:  Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976.

     3These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's best
professional judgment.  They are used as the best estimates of the
concentrations to be expected at any particular time.  Measure-
ments of hydrocarbons (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO) are not avail-
able in the rural areas.  However, high-background HC levels have
been measured at other rural locations in the West and may occur
here.  Background CO levels are now assumed to be relatively
low.  Measurements of long range visibility in the area are not
available, but the average is estimated to be 60 miles.  Others
have estimated background visibility at 70-100 miles.  See
Nichelson, R.  Progress Report, New Mexico Visibility Study.
Santa Fe, N.M.:  New Mexico, Environmental Improvement Agency, n.d.

     ^Mixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upward
boundary of pollution dispersion.


                              275
-------
at each facility location, predicted annual average pollutant
levels vary among locations, even if the pollutant sources are
identical.  Meteorological conditions in the area are generally
unfavorable for pollution dispersion more than 40 percent of the
time.  Hence, plume impaction and limited mixing of plumes caused
by temperature inversions at plume height can be expected to occur
regularly.1  Good dispersion conditions are expected to occur
about 30 percent of the time.2

     As at most western sites, the potential for dispersion of
pollutants in the Navajo/Farmington area varies considerably by
season.  During spring and summer, strong low-level winds (15-25
mph)  enhance dispersion potential.  During winter months, dis-
persion potential is often limited because of persistent high
pressure areas near the surface over the Colorado River Plateau.

5.2.2  Factors Producing Impacts

     The primary emissions sources in the Navajo/Farmington sce-
nario are a power plant, three synthetic fuels conversion facili-
ties (Lurgi, Synthane,  and Synthoil), supporting surface coal
mines,  an underground uranium mine and mill, and population in-
creases.  The focus of  this section is on emissions of criteria
pollutants from the energy facilities.3  Table 5-3 lists the
amounts of the five criteria pollutants emitted by each of the
facilities.  In all cases, most emissions come from the conver-
sion facilities rather  than the mines.  Most mine-related pollu-
tion originates from diesel engine combustion products, primarily
nitrogen oxides (NOX),  hydrocarbons (HC), and particulates.   Al-
though dust suppression techniques are hypothesized to be used
          National Climatic Center.  Wind Dispersion by Pasquill
Stability Classes, Star Program for Selected U.S. Cities.  Ash-
ville, N.C.:  National Climatic Center, 1975.

     2Jordan, R.A.  Joint Ambient Air Monitoring Project, Interim
Report.  Alburquerque, N.M.:   Public Service Company of New Mexico,
September 1973, and amended January 1974.  As cited in U.S.,
Department of the Interior.  Draft Environmental Statement for
Proposed Modification of Four Corners Power Plant and Navajo
Mine.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1975.

     3Air impacts associated with population increases are dis-
cussed forward (Section 5.2.3)  as those impacts relate to the
scenario, which includes all facilities constructed according to
the hypothesized schedule.


                              276
-------
            TABLE 5-3:
EMISSIONS  FROM FACILITIES'
 (pounds  per hour)
FACILITIESb
Electrical Generation0
Mine
Plant

Lurgi
Mine
Plant
Synthane
Mine
Plant
SynthoilS
Mine
Plant
Uranium
Underground Mine
Mill
PARTICULATES

17d
5,020

i
8d
N
J
7d
8
i
10d
1,254

0.16
40
S02

11
9,760


5
516

5
3,524

7
1,171

0.36
1.03
NOX

144
18,900-
-31,500e

68
649

63
5,052

92
5,770

5
0.3
HC

17
524


8
47 f

7.
94f

11
1,688

0.5
0.05
CO

87
1,744


41
N

38
176

56
227

3
U
S02 = sulfur dioxide
NOx = oxides of nitrogen
HC = hydrocarbons
         CO  =  carbon dioxide
         N = negligible
         U = unknown
aThese levels of emissions would violate several New Mexico State New
Source Performance Standards.
"The Lurgi and Synthane gasification plants are 250 million standard
cubic feet per day facilities with three emissions stacks at each plant.
The Synthoil plant produces 100,000 barrels per day and has 24  stacks.
White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West:   Energy Resource Develop-
ment Systems Report.  Washington, B.C.:   U.S.,  Environmental Protection
Agency, forthcoming.
°Assuming 99 percent electrostatic precipitators efficiency and 80 per-
cent S02 scrubber efficiency.  The S02  scrubber is also assumed to re-
move 40 percent of NOX.
 These particulate emissions do not include fugitive dust.
6Range represents emissions assuming 0  and 40 percent NOX removal by
scrubbers.
 These emissions do not include fugitive HC.
^Synthoil data have a high uncertainty  because of the small capacity  of
bench scale test facilities built to date.  The Solvent Refined Coal
liquefaction process now appears likely to become commercial sooner,  and
more reliable pilot plant data are available.  These data are reported
in White et al.  Energy From the West:   ERDS Report, Chapter 3.
                                  277
-------
in this scenario, some additional particulates will come from
blasting, coal piles, and blowing dust.1

     The largest single contributor to total emissions is the
power plant for all pollutants except HC, in which case the
Synthoil plant has the largest emissions (Table 5-3).   For all
criteria pollutants except carbon monoxide (CO),  the Lurgi plant
has the smallest total emissions.

     The hypothetical power plant, for which data in Table 5-3
were calculated, has four 750 megawatt-electric (MWe)  boilers,
each with its own stack.2  The boiler is equipped with an electro-
static precipitator (ESP) which removes 99 percent of the partic-
ulates and a scrubber which removes 80 percent of the S02 and
from 0 to 40 percent of the NOX.3  For a power plant operating
under these conditions, Table 5-4 gives emissions on the basis of
a million Btu's of coal burned and compares them to the New Source
Performance Standards  (NSPS).  Emissions of S02 more than meet
NSPS.4  However, particulate emissions exceed these standards,
and NOX emissions (assuming 40 percent removal by the scrubber)
just meet NSPS.  In order to meet NSPS, 99.4 percent particulates,
20 percent S02/ and 36 percent NOX removal would be required.5

     In addition to emissions from the power plant itself, two
75,000-barrel oil storage tanks at the plant, with standard
floating roof construction, will each emit up to 0.7 pound of
HC per hour.

     Both the power plant and the three coal synthetic fuels
facilities are cooled by wet forced-draft cooling towers.  Each


     !The effectiveness of current dust suppression practices is
uncertain.  Research being conducted by the Environmental Protec-
tion Agency (EPA) is investigating this question.   The problem of
fugitive dust from mines is discussed qualitatively in Chapter 10.

     2Stacks are 500 feet high, have an exit diameter of 30.3
feet, mass flow rates of 2.6 x 106 cubic feet per minute, an exit
velocity of 60 feet per second, and an exit temperature of 180°F.

     3These efficiencies were hypothesized as reasonable estimates
of current industrial practices;  exact percentages are uncertain.

     4NSPS limit the amount of a given pollutant a stationary
source may emit; the limit is expressed relative to the amount of
energy in the fuel burned.

     5Section 109 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub.
L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685 requires both an emissions limitation and
a percentage reduction of S02, particulates, and NOX.   Revised
standards are to be established by the EPA.

                               278
-------
       TABLE 5-4:
COMPARISON OF EMISSIONS FROM POWER PLANT
WITH NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS
(pounds per million Btu)
POWER PLANT
Particulates
S02a
N0xb
EMISSION
0.17
0.33
0.65-1.08
NSPS
0.1
1.2
0.7
             NSPS - New Source Performance Standards
             Btu = British thermal unit
             S02 = sulfur dioxide
             NOX = oxides of nitrogen

             aNew Mexico standards require that 65
             percent of the S02 be controlled.  Data
             from White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy
             From the West;  Energy Resource Devel-
             opment Systems Report.  Washington,
             D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection
             Agency, forthcoming, Chapter 2.

              Range of NOX emissions assumes 0 and
             40 percent NOX removal by the scrubber.
cell in the tower circulates water at a rate of 15,330 gallons
per minute (gpm) and emits 0.01 percent of its water as a mist.
The circulating water has a total dissolved solids  (TDS)  content
of 3,300 parts per million, which results in a salt emission rate
of 21,200 pounds per year for each cell.1

     Underground uranium mining operations produce dust in the
mine tunnels and crosscuts.  Radon gas (Rn-222) and its daughters
are emitted from the exposed surfaces in the mine and are pres-
ent in greater concentrations than dust.   The dust and radio-
nuclides generated by the mining process are emitted into the
atmosphere through exhaust ventilation shafts.  This air flow
dilutes the pollutants to a concentration well within federal
and state regulatory standards.2  The air emerges from the vent
     :The power plant has 64 cells, the Lurgi plant has 11, the
Synthane plant has 6, and the Synthoil plant has 16.

     2White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West:  Energy
Resource Development Systems Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.
                               279
-------
shafts at a high velocity causing the pollutants to be dispersed
rapidly into the atmosphere.  The maximum emission rate of Rn-222
from the mine vent exhausts is about 2.94 curies per day for a
1,200 tons per day (tpd) mine.1  The primary radiological air
emission from the 1,000 tpd uranium mill is also Rn-222; emissions
have been estimated to be about 9,000 curies per year.2

5.2.3  Impacts

     This section describes air quality impacts which result
from each type of conversion facility3 (Lurgi, Synthane, Synthoil,
power plant, and a uranium mill)  taken separately and from a
scenario which includes construction of all facilities according
to the hypothesized scenario schedule.  For the power plant, the
effect on air quality of hypothesized emission controls, alter-
native emission controls, alternative stack heights, and alterna-
tive plant sizes are discussed.  The focus is on concentrations
of criteria pollutants  (particulates, S02, NOX, HC,  and CO).
See Chapter 10 for a qualitative description of sulfates, other
oxidants, fine particulates, long-range visibility,  plume opacity,
cooling tower salt deposition, and cooling tower fogging and icing.

A.  Lurgi Impacts

     Few air quality impacts are associated with the construction
phase of a Lurgi plant, although construction processes may in-
crease wind-blown dust which currently causes periodic violations
of 24-hour ambient particulate standards.

     Air quality impacts result primarily from the operation of
the Lurgi facility.   Table 5-5 summarizes the concentrations of
four pollutants predicted to be produced by the Lurgi plant.
These pollutants (particulates, S02, NOX, and HC)  are regulated
by federal and New Mexico state ambient air quality  standards
(also shown in Table 5-5).  Based on these data, the typical con-
centrations associated with the plant when added to  existing
     1White, Irvin L.,  et al.   Energy From the West:  Energy
Resource Development Systems Report.   Washington, D.C.:  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency,forthcoming, Chapter 5.

     2Ibid.

     3Air quality impacts caused by the mines are expected to be
negligible in comparison with impacts caused by conversion facil-
ities .

                               280
-------
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background levels, will be well below federal and state ambient
air standards.l

     Table 5-5 also lists the prevention of significant deterio-
ration (PSD)  standards, which are the allowable increments of
pollutants that can be added to areas of relatively clean air
(i.e., areas with air quality better than that allowed by ambient
air standards).2  "Class I" is intended to designate the cleanest
areas, such as national parks and forests.3  Peak concentrations
attributable to the Lurgi plant do not exceed Class II allowable
increments.  However, the Class I increment for 3-hour 862
emissions is exceeded.

     Since the plant exceeds one Class I increment, it would have
to be located a sufficient distance from any Class I area to
allow dilution of emissions by atmospheric mixing to required
levels prior to their reaching such areas.  The distance required
for this dilution (which varies by facility type, size, emission
controls, and meteorological conditions) in effect establishes
a "buffer zone" around Class I areas.1*  No proposed Class I areas
are within 10 miles of the plant site, but Mesa Verde National
Park and San Pedro Parks National Wilderness Area are mandatory
Class I areas in the vicinity of the Navajo power plant.  Chaco
Canyon National Monument, about 20 miles to the southeast, is
another potential Class I area (Figure 5-3).
     Potential air impacts are subject to the New Mexico state
permit review system, which does not allow any facility develop-
ment that threatens applicable state standards.  If the operation
of a plant will violate state standards, construction can be
halted, and/or the plant may be required to install additional
pollution control equipment.

     2PSD standards apply only to particulates and SO2.

     3The Environmental Protection Agency initially designated
all PSD areas Class II and established a process requiring peti-
tions and public hearings for redesignating areas Class I or
Class III.  A Class II designation is for areas which have mod-
erate, well-controlled energy or industrial development and per-
mits less deterioration than that allowed by federal secondary
ambient standards.  Class III allows deterioration to the level
of secondary standards.

     "Analysis of buffer zone requirements is based on the poten-
tial of many western areas to become Class I, either by redesig-
nation or by Congressional requirement.  Estimated sizes of buffer
zones are not based on dispersion modeling.  Note that the term
buffer zone is in disfavor.  We use it because we believe it
accurately describes the effect of PSD requirements.


                              282
-------
                    COLORADO
                              XI     UTi MOUNTAIN     ;
                              3 i-JSS^JO§fJWJISSffit!!	J
       *^^
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                                    »
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                                   Burnham NewTbwn
          5      10
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                       15
         Canyon National Monument
                                                    }               J* " .




                                                    t  'jf^fe *^<^Ji?^ ^»£> "• ^ ^ "^
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FIGURE  5-3:   AIR IMPACTS OF ENERGY  FACILITIES  IN THE
                NAVAJO/FARMINGTON  SCENARIO
                              283
-------
     In a worst-case situation, expected to occur infrequently,
the interaction of pollutants from the Lurgi plant and its asso-
ciated mine is expected to cause background visibility (presently
about 60 miles) be reduced to between 25 and 40 miles, depending
on the amount of S02 converted to sulfates in the atmosphere.1

B.  Synthane Impacts

     Typical and peak concentrations of four criteria pollutants
from the proposed Synthane gasification plant are summarized in
Table 5-6.  No federal or state ambient standard will be violated
by this facility.

     The Synthane plant will exceed some of the allowable incre-
ments for PSD.  Peak concentrations from the Synthane plant will
violate Class I PSD standards for 24-hour and 3-hour S02.  The
PSD violation would require a buffer zone between the plant and
any Class I area.  Current Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
regulations would require a buffer zone of about 5 miles for the
Synthane plant.

C.  Synthoil Impacts

     Table 5-7 lists typical plant concentrations, peak plant
concentrations, and peak combined concentrations from the Synth-
oil liquefaction plant and surface mine.  These data show that
the only violation from the Synthoil facilities (plant or plant/
mine combination) will be HC emission levels, which violate both
federal and state standards.  They are more than 30 times greater
than New Mexico's standard.

     This facility will not violate any Class II PSD increments.
Peak concentrations from the Synthoil plant will exceed Class I
PSD increments for 24-hour particulate and SO2 increments.  In
addition, typical concentrations from the plant will exceed the
24-hour S02 increment.  These concentrations would require a 16-
mile buffer zone between plant and any Class I area.

D.  Power Plant Impacts

     Because construction processes may increase windblown dust,
periodic violations of 24-hour National Ambient Air Quality Stan-
dards (NAAQS) for particulates can be expected to increase during
power plant construction.  No other air quality impacts are
associated with the construction of a power plant.


     LShort-term visibility impacts were investigated using a
"box-type" dispersion model.  This particular model assumes that
all emissions occurring during a specified time interval are uni-
formly mixed and confined in a box that is capped by a lid or
stable layer aloft.  A lid of 500 meters was used.  SO2. to sulfate
conversion rates of 10 percent and 1 percent were modeled.

                               284
-------
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                                                       286
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     The majority of air quality impacts result from the opera-
tion of a power plant and depend on the degree of emission con-
trol imposed.  Concentrations resulting from a base case, where
control equipment is hypothesized to remove 80 percent of the
S02 and 99 percent of all particulates, are discussed first, fol-
lowed by a discussion of the effects on ambient air concentrations
of alternative emission controls, alternative stack heights, and
alternative plant sizes.

(1)  Hypothesized Emission Control

     Table 5-8 summarizes typical and peak concentrations of four
criteria pollutants predicted to be produced by a power plant
(3,000 MWe, 500-foot stack, 80 percent S02 removal, and 99 percent
particulate removal).  Peak concentrations from the plant will
violate New Mexico's ambient air standard for 24-hour NO2 levels.
No other federal or state ambient standard will be violated by
this facility and its associated mine.  This facility does, how-
ever, exceed several allowable increments for PSD Class I.  Class
I 24-hour particulate increments and all SO2 increments will be
exceeded by plant peak concentrations.  Class II increments for
24-hour particulates will just be met by the plant but exceeded
by the the plant/mine combination.

     These PSD violations would require buffer zones between the
plant and any Class I area.  Current EPA regulations would re-
quire a 58-mile buffer zone for the power plant.  Nearby areas
which have recently been designated Class I include Mesa Verde
National Monument and San Pedro Parks National Wilderness Area.

(2)  Alternative Emission Controls

     The base case control for the Navajo power plant assumed an
S02 scrubber efficiency of 80 percent and an ESP efficiency of
99 percent.  The effect on ambient air concentrations of three
additional emission control alternatives is shown in Table 5-9.
These alternatives include a 95 percent efficient SC>2 scrubber
with a 99 percent efficient ESP;  an 80 percent efficient SO2
scrubber with an ESP;  an 80 percent efficient S02 scrubber with
no ESP;  and an alternative in which neither a scrubber nor an
ESP are utilized.

     An examination of Table 5-9  reveals violations of NAAQS and
Class II increments occur only when controls are removed alto-
gether for total suspended particulates (TSP), SO2, or both.
Removal of the SO2 scrubber results in violations of NAAQS sec-
ondary standards for 3-hour SO2,  and all Class II PSD increments
except annual S02.  Removal of the ESP results in violations of
all NAAQS and Class II PSD increments for TSP.  The base case
control meets all applicable standards for S02 and TSP emissions.
                              287
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                                                     289
-------
  TABLE  5-10:
AIR QUALITY IMPACTS RESULTING FROM ALTERNATIVE
STACK HEIGHTS AT NAVAJO POWER PLANT
SELECTED STACK HEIGHTS (feet)
300
500
1,000
APPLICABLE STANDARDS
NAAQS
(primary)
(secondary)
State standards
Class II PSD increments
MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION (yg/m3)
3-HOUR SO 2
497 '
454
365
1,300
1,300
512
24-HOUR SO 2
72
65
26
365
260
91
24-HOUR TSP
40
36
14
260
150
150
37
 yg/m3  = micrograms per cubic meter :
 S02 =  sulfur dioxide
 TSP =  total suspended particulates=
                    NAAQS = National Ambient Air
                           Quality Standards
                    PSD = prevention of significant
                         deterioration
(3)   Alternative Stack Heights

     In order to examine the  effects  of alternative stack heights
on air quality in the Navajo  scenario,  worst-case dispersion mod-
eling was carried out for a 300-foot  stack (lowest stack height
consistent with good engineering  practice),  a 500-foot stack  (an
average or most frequently used height),  and a 1,000-foot stack
(a highest stack height).  The results  of this examination are
shown in Table 5-10.  Emissions from  each stack are controlled by
an 80 percent efficient  SOz scrubber  and a 99 percent efficient
ESP.  The 500-foot case  was given previously as part of the base
case.

     A comparison of predicted emissions with applicable standards
shows no NAAQS are violated with  a 300-foot stack.  However,
Class II PSD increments  for 24-hour TSP emissions are violated
in the 300-foot stack height  case.

(4)   Alternative Plant Sizes

     The base case 3,000 MWe  power plant at Navajo  (with 500-foot
stack height, 80 percent S02  removal  and 99 percent TSP removal)
violates no NAAQS or Class II PSD increments.  Any reduction  in
plant generating capacity would  turther reduce emissions of S02
and TSP.  Resnlts are shown in Table  5-11.
                               290
-------
  TABLE 5-11:
AIR QUALITY IMPACTS  RESULTING FROM ALTERNATIVE
PLANT SIZES AT NAVAJO  POWER PLANT
UNIT
SIZE (MWe)
750

NUMBER
OF UNITS
1
2
3
4
PLANT
CAPACITY
(MWe)
750
1,500
2,250
3,000
APPLICABLE STANDARDS
NAAQS
(primary)
(secondary)
State standards
Class II PSD increments
MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION (yg/m3)
3-HOUR SO 2
114
227
340
454
1,300
1,300
512
24-HOUR S02
16
32
49
65
365
260
91
24-HOUR TSP
9
18
27
36
260
150
150
37
 yg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter
 MWe = megawatt-electric
 S02 = sulfur dioxide
 TSP = total suspended particulates
                   NAAQS = National Ambient Air
                          Quality Standards
                   PSD = prevention of significant
                        deterioration
(5)  Summary of Power  Plant Air Impacts

     During the construction phase of the Navajo power plant,  the
frequency of violations  of  NAAQS particulate standards will prob-
ably increase.  Once the 3,000  MWe hypothesized power plant and
associated mine are in operation (80 percent S02 removal,  99
percent TSP removal, and 500-foot stack height), they are  pre-
dicted to violate New  Mexico's  ambient air standard for N02 con-
centrations and the Class II PSD increment for  24-hour particu-
lates.  Removal of the SO2  scrubbers or ESP would result in
violations of several  NAAQS and Class II PSD increments.   Lower-
ing the hypothesized stack  height to 300 feet would result in
violations of Class II PSD  increments for 24-hour TSP emissions.

E.  Uranium—Underground Mine and Mill Impacts

     The primary radioactive isotope emitted from uranium  milling
is Rn-222.  There is no  federal standard for allowable Rn-222  air
concentrations.  A rule  of  thumb value commonly used as an accept-
able level is one picocurie per liter of air (one picocurie is
equal to 10"12 curies).   In this study neither  criteria pollutant
                               291
-------
nor radiological emissions from a uranium mine and mill were
modeled.  Thus, the concentrations that would result from the
criteria pollutant emission rates given in Table 5-3 or from a
9,000 curie per year radiological emission rate are not known.

F.  Scenario Impacts

(1)  To 1980

     Construction of the hypothetical Lurgi gasification plant
will begin in 1977, and the plant will become operational in 1980.
The population of Farmington is expected to increase from 27,900
(1975)  to 34,800 by 1980.l  This population increase will con-
tribute to increases in pollution concentrations due solely to
urban sources.  Table 5-12 shows predicted 1980 concentrations of
the five criteria pollutants in the center of Farmington and at
a point 3 miles from the center of town.

     When the Lurgi coal gasification plant becomes operational
in 1980, visibility is expected to decrease from the current
average of 60 miles to 59 miles.

     When concentrations from urban sources are added to back-
ground levels and concentrations from the Lurgi plant (given in
Table 5-5), annual particulate levels exceed the federal secondary
standard, and 3-hour HC levels exceed the federal and New Mexico
standards.2  Moreover, concentrations of particulates (30-day,
7-day,  and 24-hour), S02 (annual), and N02 (annual and 24-hour)
approach the most restrictive federal or state standards.

(2)  To 1990

     Two new facilities are hypothesized to be constructed by
1990 in the Navajo/Farmington area.  A power plant will become
operational in 1986 and a Synthane gasification plant in 1990.
Interactions of the pollutants from the power and Synthane plants
are minimal because they have been (hypothetically) sited 6 miles
apart.   If the wind blows directly from one plant to the other,
plumes will interact.  The maximum pollutant concentration re-
sulting from the interaction of Synthane plant with the power
plant will just meet Class II PSD increments for 24-hour SO2
emissions.   The Class II PSD increment for 3-hour S02 emissions
will be violated.  The Lurgi plant is too far away to affect peak
concentrations.  If the plants were closer, the probability of
interactions would increase.
          Section 5.4.3.

     2HC standards are violated regularly in most urban areas

                               292
-------
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                                                          293
-------
     When the power plant and Synthane plant come on-line with the
Lurgi facility, visibility is expected to decrease from the cur-
rent average of 60 miles in the Farmington region to 57 miles by
1990.  In a worst-case situation, expected to occur about once a
year, short-term visibilities could be reduced to between 3 and
9 miles,- depending on the amount of S02 converted to particulates
in the atmosphere.

     Farmington's predicted population increase to 43,650 by 1990
will cause urban pollutant concentrations to reach the levels
shown in Table 5-12.  Combined with background levels, the 1990
concentrations will violate the federal secondary standards for
annual particulate levels and New Mexico's 24-hour NO2 and 3-hour
HC standards.  These concentrations also approach either a federal
secondary or New Mexico standard for 30-day, 7-day, and 24-hour
particulate levels and annual S02 levels.  The HC violation, which
will exceed New Mexico's standard by a factor of five, appears
the most severe because it increases the likelihood of oxidant
formation and photochemical smog.

(3)  To 2000

     One new facility, a Synthoil liquefaction plant, will become
operational between 1990 and 2000.  Interactions between the new
Synthoil plant, the Lurgi, Synthane, and power plants will in-
crease annual peak concentrations near the power plant.  Inter-
action between the Synthoil and power plant plumes will result
in maximum pollutant concentrations that just meet Class II PSD
increments for 24-hour SOz levels.  The Class II PSD increment
for 24-hour TSP will be violated.

     When all energy conversion facilities in the scenario come
on-line in 2000, visibility is expected to decrease from the
current average of 60 miles in the Farmington region to 56 miles.
In a worst-case situation, expected to occur about once a year,
short-term visibilities could be reduced to between 3 and 8 miles,
depending on the amount of SO2 converted to particulates in the
atmosphere.

     Farmington's population will increase to-49,600 by the year
2000, and increased pollution concentrations will be associated
with this growth  (Table 5-12).  These increases will exceed two
additional ambient standards beyond those violated by population
increases in 1990  (New Mexico's 30-day and 7-day particulate
standards).  Further, 24-hour particulate levels will be virtually
equal to federal secondary standards.

G.  Other Air Impacts

     Nine additional categories of potential air impacts have
been examined; that is, an attempt has been made to identify
sources of pollutants and how energy development may affect levels

                               294
-------
of these pollutants during the next 25 years.  These categories
include sulfates, oxidants, fine particulates , long-range visi-
bility, plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, cooling
tower fogging and icing, trace elements, and fugitive dust
emissions.1  Although there are likely to be local impacts as a
consequence of these pollutants, both the available data and
knowledge about impact mechanisms are insufficient to allow quan-
titative, site-specific analyses.  Thus, these are discussed in
a more general, qualitative manner in Chapter 10.

5.2.4  Summary of Air Impacts

     Energy development hypothesized in the Navajo/Farmington
region are:  Lurgi and Synthane gasification facilities, a Syn-
thoil liquefaction facility, a 3,000 MWe power plant, associated
surface coal mines for the facilities, and a uranium mine (under-
ground) and mill.  Particulate standards are already periodically
violated in the region due to blowing dust; mining and facility
construction activities are likely to aggravate that problem.

     Particulate emissions violate the federal NSPS for particu-
lates, and the NSPS for NOX may be violated  (depending on the
amount of NOX removed by scrubbers which is highly uncertain) .

     Neither the Lurgi nor the Synthane facilities violate any
federal ambient standards or Class II PSD increments.  Buffer
zones of 10 and 5 miles, respectively, would be required to meet
Class I PSD increments.  The Synthoil plant violates only the
NAAQS for HC; a buffer zone of 16 miles would be required to
meet Class I increments.

     The power plant violates New Mexico's ambient N02 air stan-
dard but no federal ambient standards or Class II PSD increments.
The combination of the power plant and mine violate the Class II
increment for 24-hour particulates.  Without the hypothesized
80 percent S02 and 99 percent TSP removal, the power plant would
violate ambient air standards.  Lowering the stack from the hy-
pothesized height of 500 feet to 300 feet would cause the Class II
PSD increment for 24-hour TSP to be violated.

     The impact that population increases will have on air quality
may be significant.  Our results indicate that federal and New
Mexico ambient standards for particulates and HC are likely to
be violated.  The HC problem may be severe due to its participa-
tion in the chemical reactions which produce smog.
         analytical information is currently available on the
source and formation of nitrates.  See Hazardous Materials Advi-
sory Committee.  Nitrogenous Compounds in the Environment, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency Report No. EPA-SAB-73-001.  Wash-
ington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1973.

                               295
-------
5.3  WATER IMPACTS

5.3.1  Introduction

     Energy resource development facilities in the Navajo/
Farmington area are sited in the San Juan River Basin, a subbasin
of the Colorado River.  The major water source for this develop-
ment is the San Juan River (see Figure 5-4).   The New Mexico por-
tion of the San Juan Basin is arid, and water supplies are limited.
Within most of the basin, annual rainfall is  generally 6 to 10
inches or less, and snowfall is approximately 24 inches.1

     This section identifies the sources and  uses of water re-
quired for energy development, the residuals  that will be produced,
and the water availability and quality impacts that are likely to
result.

5.3.2  Existing Conditions

A.  Groundwater

     The aquifers of greatest significance to the Farmington area
are:2  an alluvial aquifer system along the San Juan River and
Chaco Wash and their tributaries; a shallow bedrock sandstone
aquifer in the Pictured Cliffs Formation; and a deep bedrock sand-
stone aquifer in the Morrison Formation.

     Recharge of alluvial aquifers depends on stream flow; there-
fore, when associated with intermittent streams, alluvial aqui-
fers are unreliable as supply sources.  However, these aquifers
are sometimes satisfactory as water sources for livestock and
domestic purposes.

     Water quality in the alluvial aquifer associated with Chaco
Wash is relatively poor  (contains up to 3,000 milligrams per liter
[mg/£] of TDS).  Water quality in the alluvial aquifer of the
San Juan River is probably somewhat better because the aquifer is
recharged by a perennial rather than an intermittent stream.

     The Pictured Cliffs sandstone aquifer is about 100 feet thick
and lies about 30 feet below the deepest minable coal seam.  Its
yield is low (generally about 10 gpm), and the water is of poor
     xThe moisture content of one inch of rain is equal to approx-
imately 15 inches of snow.

     2The entire New Mexico portion of the San Juan Basin was
declared an underground basin in July 1976 by the State Engineer.
Uses of the basin are subject to regulation as an aquifer of
significance to water supply.

                              296
-------
                         COLORADO
                                                            ™ T«f      * '   l,
                                                                        t>
         Navajo Indian
         Irrigation Project
         Water Line and
         Pumping Station
FIGURE  5-4:   SURFACE WATER  FEATURES AND WATER  IMPACTS  AT
                NAVAJO/FARMINGTON
                                  297
-------
quality.  The TDS content is usually above 1,000 mq/i and ranges
as high as 75,000 mg/Jl.1  Recharge of the aquifer is estimated to
be about 200 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr).

     The Morrison sandstone aquifer is about 900 feet thick and,
in the scenario area, occurs at a depth of about 5,000 feet.
Little is known about the productivity and water quality of this
aquifer.

B.  Surface Water

     All the southern tributaries of the San Juan River, includ-
ing Chaco Wash and its tributaries, are ephemeral.  Approximately
88 percent of the average annual water supply in the basin re-
sults from flow from the Colorado portion of the drainage basin.2

     Allocation and control of water resources in the San Juan
River currently involves a number of treaties and basinwide com-
pacts which include state and federal jurisdictions.  These are
the:  Colorado River Compact;3 Upper Colorado River Basin Com-
pact;4 Mexico Treaty of 1944;5 and the laws of the State of New
Mexico.

     Under the Upper Colorado River Basin Compact, New Mexico is
entitled to 11.25 percent of the water in the Colorado River to


     1 Forty-nine water samples from the Pictured Cliffs sandstone
aquifer yielded an average TDS content of 25,442 mg/£.  U.S.,
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.  Western Gas-
ification Project and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah Interna-
tional Inc., New Mexico;  Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols.
Salt Lake City, Utah:  Bureau of Reclamation,  Upper Colorado Re-
gion, 1976, pp. 2-37 and 2-38.

     2This inflow from Colorado helps to explain why New Mexico's
entitlement is somewhat less than the total available water leav-
ing the state.  The San Juan actually contributes about 17 per-
cent of the flow at Lee Ferry, the point at which Upper Basin
flow is measured.

     3Colorado River Compact of 1922, 42 Stat. 171, 45 Stat. 1064,
declared effective by Presidential Proclamation, 46 Stat. 3000
(1928) .

     ^Upper Colorado River Basin Compact of 1948, Pub. L. 81-37,
63 Stat. 31 (1949).

     5Treaty between the United States of America and Mexico Res-
pecting Utilization of Water of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers
and of the Rio Grande, February 3, 1944, 59 Stat. 1219  (1945),
Treaty Series No. 994.


                              298
-------
     TABLE  5-13:   FLOW CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SAN JUAN  RIVER


LOCATION
Farmington


Shiprock


DRAINAGE
AREA
(square miles)
7,240


12,900



20-YEAR AVERAGE FLOW
(1955-75)
1,850 cfs

1,340,000 acre-ft/yr
1,848 cfs

1,339,000 acre-ft/yr
MAXIMUM
FLOW
(cfs)
68,000
(1927)a

80,000
(1929)a

MINIMUM
FLOW
(cfs)
14
(1939)a

8
(1939)a

    cfs = cubic feet per second
   acre-ft/yr = acre-feet per year
   Source:  U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey, Sur-
   face Water Supply of  the U.S., 1961-65,  Part 9,  Colorado River Basin,
   Vol.  2, Water Supply Paper 1925.
   Printing Office, 1970.

   aThe  year of measurement.
Washington, D.C.:  Government
which Upper Basin  states  are entitled.  While estimates  of  the
amount of water  available to the Upper Basin states vary widely,
our analysis is  based on  5.8 million acre-ft/yr.1  This  would
entitle New Mexico to 652,000 acre-ft/yr.  However, the  state of
New Mexico bases its  claim on an estimate of 6.3 million acre-
ft/yr and, allowing for reuse of 24,000 acre-ft/yr, uses 727,000
acre-ft/yr for planning purposes.2  At present, there  is suffi-
cient water available in  the San Juan River to meet any  of  these
estimates.  However,  the  absence of impoundments below Navajo
Reservoir reduces  the practicability of diversions to  Bloomfield
and Aztec in spite of an  apparently adequate total.

     Baseline surface water flow in the Farmington area  varies
considerably.  During low flow periods, withdrawals for  energy
use could be a substantial percentage of what is available.   Flow
characteristics  of the San Juan River at Shiprock and  Farmington
are shown in Table 5-13.   Since 1962, the flow in the  San Juan
            issues  are  elaborated in our regional analysis  (Chap-
ter 11).  The 5.8 figure,  one of the most common estimates,  is
from U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy  Manage-
ment Team.  Report  on Water for Energy in the Upper Colorado
River Basin.  Denver, Colo.:  Department of the Interior,  1974.

     2Colorado River Compact of 1922, 42 Stat. 171, 45 Stat.  1064,
declared effective  by Presidential Proclamation, 46 Stat.  3000
(1928) .
                                299
-------
has been partially regulated by the Navajo Reservior, which was
built to supply the Navajo Indian Irrigation Project  (NIIP).  The
maximum and minimum flows of record at Farmington and Shiprock
occurred before the construction of Navajo Reservoir.  The res-
ervoir operating conditions are shown in Table 5-14.  To meet
the NIIP water demand, it will be necessary to use the entire
operating range and all of the active storage.

     Not all of the water allocated to New Mexico in the Upper
Colorado River Basin  (UCRB) is currently being used.  However,
future developments may create a demand that exceeds that total
available supply.  Present and projected water allocations are
shown in Table 5-15.  This table is based on New Mexico's posi-
tion that its share of available water is 703,000 acre-ft/yr.
The largest future development is the NIIP, but water commitments
for energy development are also substantial.  If the water quan-
tity from the Energy Management Team's estimate of 5.8 million
     TABLE 5-14:  OPERATING CONDITIONS FOR NAVAJO RESERVOIR
  Maximum storage
  Minimum storage
  Normal operating range
  pre-NIIPa

  Minimum release
  September-April

  Minimum release
  May-August
      6,085 feet above mean sea level
  1,709,000 acre-feet

      5,990 feet above mean sea level
    600,000 acre-feet

6,025-6,050 feet above mean sea level
        450 cubic feet per second*3
        700 cubic feet per second
NIIP = Navajo Indian Irrigation Project

aThe Navajo Indian Irrigation Project will require 330,000 acre-
feet per year (acre-ft/yr)  of which 226,000 acre-ft/yr will be
consumed for irrigation and by evaporation and 104,000 acre-ft/yr
will be returned.

 Model studies indicated that these minimum flows could not be
met during 3 years using 1949-1965 flow data.  Under these
extreme events,  discharges to the San Juan River may be less
than 300 cubic feet per second to maintain minimum storage in
the reservoir.
                               300
-------
    TABLE 5-15:
NEW MEXICO'S PRESENT AND PROJECTED
SAN JUAN RIVER WATER ALLOCATIONS
DEPLETIONS
(nominal-at-site) (thousands of acre-feet per year)

Irrigation (present)
Other (present)
Hammond
San Juan-Chama
Navajo Reservoir Evaporation
Hogback Expansion
Utah International Incorporated
(Four Corners)
Farmington M & I (increase)
Navajo Indian Irrigation
Navajo M & I Contracts
New Mexico Public Service Company
(San Juan)
Utah International Incorporated
(WESCO)
El Paso Natural Gas Co.
Other (Gallup)
Animas-La Plata
Irrigation
M & I
Mainstream Reservoir Evaporation
Total depletions
1974
83
13
8
46
24
2

25
0
0


5

0
0
0
0
0
0
58
264
FUTURE
83
13
10
110
26
10

39
5
226


16

35
28
8
34
14
20
58
735
M & I = Municipal and Industrial
WESCO = Western Gasification Company

Source:  U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Rec-
lamation.  States' Comments, Westwide Study Report on Crit-
ical Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western States.
Denver, Colo.:  Bureau of Reclamation, 1976.

aM & I, Fish and Wildlife (F & W), Recreation Mineral, etc,
                            301
-------
acre-ft/yr is used to calculate New Mexico's portion of the Upper
Colorado River water, only 652,000 acre-ft/yr would be available,
in which case future depletions would exceed supply.  This could
lead to the reallocation of water currently allocated but not
being used or the purchase of existing water rights for new uses.

     The quality of water in the San Juan River, which will be
the source of process water for the energy facilities in this
area, is shown in Table 5-16 along with typical industrial boiler
feed quality requirements and drinking water standards.

     Two existing power plants are located in the San Juan Basin
in the vicinity of the Navajo/Farmington area.  The San Juan
Power Plant has a closed-loop water system and does not return
effluent to the San Juan.  However, the Four Corners Power Plant
discharges from Morgan Lake into Chaco Wash.  This plant also
uses Morgan Lake, a 1,200-acre lake, as a cooling pond.  When
evaporative losses from the lake increase water salinity to levels
unacceptable for plant use, the lake is flushed into Chaco Wash
and refilled from the San Juan River by pipeline.  As reported by
Arizona Public Service Company, the operator of the Four Corners
plant, these intermittent discharges have an average TDS concen-
tration of 3,000 mg/2, and are somewhat alkaline (acidity/alkalinity
[pH] levels are often above 9.0),l  In the future, the company
may be required to reduce the TDS levels of water discharged to
comply with state standards and regulations.

5.3.3  Factors Producing Impacts

     The water requirements of and effluents from energy facili-
ties cause water impacts.  These requirements and effluents are
identified in this section for each type of energy facility.
Associated population increases also increase municipal water
demand and sewage effluent; these are presented only for the
scenario which includes facilities constructed according to the
scenario schedule.

A.  Water Requirements of Energy Facilities

     The water requirements for energy facilities hypothesized
for the Navajo/Farmington area are in Table 5-17.  Two sets of
data are presented.  The Energy Resource Development System (ERDS)
Report data are based on secondary sources, including impact
statements, Federal Power Commission (FPC) docket filings, and
     According to the New Mexico Water Quality Control Commission
(San Juan River Basin Plan).

                              302
-------
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                                  303
-------
             TABLE  5-17:    WATER  REQUIREMENTS  FOR ENERGY
                               FACILITIES AT FARMINGTON
                               (acre-feet per  year)a
TECHNOLOGY
Power Generation
Gasification
Lurgi
Synthane
Liquef accion
Synthoil6
Uranium
Underground Mine-Mill

Synthetic Fuels
Facilities
Power Plant
ERDS REPORTb
WET COOLING
29,400
6,714
9 ,090
17,460
1,350
WATER PURIFICATION ASSOCIATES0
COMBINATION OF WET AND DRY COOLING
HIGH WET
29,206
7,128
8,670
11,753
NC
INTERMEDIATE WET
9,089
5,639
6,694
9,655
NC
MINIMUM WET
NC
5,213
6,289
9,112
NC
Cost Range in Which Indicated Cooling
Technology Is Most Economic
(dollars per thousand gallons)
NC
NC
< 1. 50
< 3.65-5.90
1.50-2.00
>3. 65-5. 90
>2.00
NC
ERDS = Energy Resource Development  Systems
NC = not considered
< = less than
> = greater than
aThese values assume an annual  load  factor of  75 percent in the case of the 3,000
megawatt-electric power plant and  90 percent in the case of the 250 million cubic
feet per day Lurgi and Synthane facilities and 100,000 barrel per day Synthoil
facility.
bwhite, Irvin L., et al.   Energy From  the West:  Energy Resource Development
Systems Report.   Washington, D.C.:   U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forth-
coming.
°Gold, Harris, et al.   Water Requirements for  Steam-Electric Power Generation and
Synthetic Fuel Plants  in~ the Western United State's^  Washington, D.C. :  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency,1977.
dCombinations of  wet and wet dry cooling were  obtained by examining the economics
of cooling alternatives for the turbine condensers and gas compressor interstage
coolers.  In the  high  wet case,  these  are all  wet cooled; in the intermediate case,
wet cooling handles 10 percent  of  the  load on  the turbine condensers and all of
the load in the interstage coolers;  in the minimum practical wet case, wet cooling
handles 10 percent of  the cooling  load on the  turbine condensers and 50 percent of
the load in the interstage coolers.  For power plants, only variations on the
steam turbine condenser load were  considered practical; thus, only high wet and
intermediate wet  cases were examined.

eSynthoil dj|ta have a  high uncertainty because of the small capacity of bench
scale test facilities  built to  date.   The Solvent Refined Coal  liquefaction pro-
cess now appears  likely to become  commercial sooner, and more reliable pilot plant
data are available. These data are  reported in White et al.  Energy From the West:
ERDS Report, Chapter 3.
                                       304
-------
recently published data accumulations,1 and can be considered
typical requirement levels.  The Water Purification Associates'
(WPA) data are from a study on minimum water-use requirements
and take into account certain opportunities to recycle water on-
site as well as the moisture content of the coal being used and
local meteorological conditions.2  As indicated in Table 5-17,
the coal-fired power plant will have the largest water requirement
of all hypothesized energy facilities in the Farmington scenario.
The uranium mine and mill will have the least.  More than 29,000
acre-ft/yr of water would be needed by the 3,000 MWe power plant
if all wet cooling is used (the high wet case on Table 5-17) .
By using intermediate wet cooling  (i.e. , a combination of wet and
dry cooling) , water requirements could be reduced to slightly more
than 9,000 acre-ft/yr, a savings of 69 percent.  For synthetic
fuels facilities, the intermediate wet cooling process could
produce savings of from 1.8 (Synthoil) to 23 percent (Synthane) .
From an economic standpoint,  the decision of which process to
use often depends on the availability and price of water.  In
the case of the power plant,  high wet cooling would be more at-
tractive economically if water costs less than $3.65 to $5.90
per thousand gallons.  If water costs more than $3.65 to $5.90
per thousand gallons, intermediate wet cooling would be the more
attractive alternative.  For synthetic fuel facilities, high wet
cooling would be most attractive if water costs less than $1.50
per thousand gallons.  If water costs from $1.50 to $2.00 per
thousand gallons, intermediate wet cooling would be the economi-
cal choice.   Minimum wet cooling (i.e., maximum dry cooling) would
save from 6 (Synthoil and Synthane) to 8 percent (Lurgi)  more
water than intermediate wet cooling.  This process would become
economically attractive if water costs more than $2.00 per thou-
sand gallons.

     If water costs only $0.25 per thousand gallons but inter-
mediate wet cooling is utilized in order to conserve water, the
increased cost of synthetic fuels would be about one cent per
million Btu of fuel greater than if high wet cooling would have
been used.  In the case of a power plant, the increased cost of
           is based on data drawn from University of Oklahoma,
Science and Public Policy Program.  Energy Alternatives:  A Com-
parative Analysis.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office,
1975 ;  and Radian Corporation.  A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study, 3 vols. and Executive Summary.  Austin, Tex.:  Radian
Corporation, 1975.  These data are published in White, Irvin L. ,
et al.  Energy From the West:  Energy Resource Development Systems
Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,
forthcoming.

     2Gold, Harris, et al.  Water Requirements for Steam-Electric
Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United
States.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,
1977.
                               305
-------
                                        Cooling Tower Evaporation I	I

                                        Consumed in the Process  fe&'l

                                        Solids Disposal and Other H
                 Power      Synthoil     Synthane     Lurgi
                 Generation  Liquefaction  Gasification  Gasification
                  (3000 MWe)   (100,000 bbl/day) (250xl06 scf/day) (250xl06 scf/day)
            ERDS = Energy Resource Development System
            WPA-H = Water Purification Associates—High Wet Cooling
            WPA-I = Water Purification Associates—Intermediate Wet Cooling
            WPA-M = Water Purification Associates—Minimum Wet Cooling
            MWe = megawatt-electric
            bbl/day = barrel(s) per day
            scf/day = standard cubic feet per day

            Source:  The ERDS data is from White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy
            From the West:  Energy Resource Development Systems Report.
            Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,  forth-
            coming.  The WPA data is from Gold, Harris, et al. Water Require-
            ments for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants
            in the Western United States.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environ-
            mental Protection Agency, 1977.
       FIGURE  5-5:
WATER CONSUMPTION FOR ENERGY FACILITIES
IN THE NAVAJO/FARMINGTON SCENARIO
intermediate  wet cooling is  about 0.1 to 0.2  cents  per kilowatt-
hour  (kWh).

      The use  of the water required  for energy facilities  is  shown
in Figure  5-5.   As indicated,  the greatest water use for  all en-
ergy  technologies is  for high  wet cooling.  Solids  disposal  con-
sumes comparable quantities  of water  for all  technologies, varying
primarily  as  a  function of the ash  content of the feedstock  coal.

      In addition to the water  requirements of the facilities, the
coal  mines  that provide feedstock coal for the facilities will
also  require  water.   If reclamation of surface-mined lands in-
cludes irrigation, most of the water  requirements for mining will
be for reclamation  (see Table  5-18).   These quantities, which are
regarded as maximum requirements, are 10 to 25 percent of the
requirements  for the  conversion facility.

      As mentioned previously,  the San Juan River is the only re-
liable source of surface water in the area; thus, it is assumed
to be the  source of water for  the energy facilities included in
this  area.  As  shown  in Figure 5-3, pipelines will  transport water
from  the San  Juan River to the energy facilities.   The rights to
this  water  would have to be  purchased from present  holders.
Groundwater supplies, the only alternative source,  are not suf-
ficient to  support the postulated facilities.

                                   306
-------
       TABLE 5-18:  WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR RECLAMATION'
MINE
Power
Lurgi
Synthane
Synthoil
Total
ACRES DISTURBED
PER YEAR
830
360
360
660
2,210
MAXIMUM
ACRES UNDER
IRRIGATION
4,150
1,825
1,825
3,300
11,100
WATER
REQUIREMENT
(acre-ft/yr)
3,110
1,370
1,370
2,475
8,325
     acre-ft/yr = acre-feet per year

     aBased on an irrigation rate of 9 inches per year for
     five years.
B.  Effluents From Energy Facilities

(1)   Coal Conversion Facilities

     Table 5-19 lists expected amounts of solid effluents produced
by coal conversion facilities in the Navajo scenario.  The great-
est amount of solid effluent will be produced by the Synthoil
plant  (more than 11,100 tpd), and the 3,000 MWe power plant is ex-
pected to produce more than 9,300 tons per day.  The Synthane and
Lurgi gasification plants are expected to produce the least amount
of solid effluents (slightly less than 6,000 tpd).  The power
plant will have the highest volume of dissolved and dry solids
(71 and 5,677 tpd), and the Synthoil plant is expected to produce
the highest amount of wet solids (5,550 tpd).

     Dissolved solids are present in the ash blowdown effluent,
the demineralizer waste effluent, and the flue gas desulfurization
(FGD) effluent.  All coal conversion processes generate electricity
on-site, thus flue gas cleaning, ash handling, and demineralization
are generally required.  One exception is the Synthoil process,
which uses clean fuel gas for power generation; flue gas cleaning
is not required for it.  Demineralization is a method of prepar-
ing water for use in boilers, producing an effluent containing
chemicals originally present in the source water.  The bottom
ash stream is the water used to remove bottom ash from the boiler.
Bottom ash removal is done via a wet sluicing system using cooling
tower blowdown water.  Thus, the dissolved solids content of that
stream is composed of chemicals from the ash and cooling water.
The principal dissolved constituents of these wastewater streams
are calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate, and chloride.
                               307
-------
             TABLE 5-19:
EFFLUENTS FROM ENERGY CONVERSION
FACILITIES  AT  FARMINGTON/NAVAJO
FACILITY TYPE
Coalc
Lurgi
(250 MMcfd)
Syn thane
(250 MMcfd)
Synthoil
(100,000 bbl/day)
Electric Power
(3,000 MWe )
Uranium
Underground Mine
(1,100 mt/day)
Mill (1,000 mt/year)
SOLIDS3 (tons per day)
DISSOLVED
24
22
15
71
0.13-0.31
g
WET
5,284
1,540
5,550
3,582
0.04-0.48
6.46^
DRY
667
4,417
5,550
5,677
Oe
1,000
TOTAL
5,115
5,979
11,115
9,330
0.21-0.81f
1,006
WATER IN EFFLUENTb
(acre-feet per year)
575
1,328
909
2,290
53-81
500
MMcfd = million cubic feet  per  day
bbl/day = barrels per day
             MWe = megawatt-electric
             mt = metric tons
aThe values for solids are given  for  a day when the facility is operating at full load.
In order to obtain yearly values,  these numbers must be multiplied by 365 days and by
the average load factor.   Load factors are 90 percent for synthetic fuels facilities
and 75 percent for power plants.   The values given as solids do not include the weight
of the water in which the solids  are  suspended or dissolved.

 The values for water discharged  are  annual and take into account the load factor.

cThese data are from Radian Corporation.  The Assessment of Residuals Disposal for
Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States,
EPA Contract No. 68-01-1916.   Austin, Tex.:  Radian, 1978.  The Radian Corporation
report extends and is based on earlier analyses conducted by Gold, Harris, et al.
Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the
Western United States.   Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977.

 Calculated from data reported in  the Corps of Engineers' Discharge Permit Applications.

eMine wastes are generated as  dry  solids, but are generally put back into the mine.

 Dissolved and wet do not sum  to  total because the total includes some volatile solids.

8Dissolved and wet solids are  given together in the wet column.
                                         308
-------
     Wet solids from electric power and Lurgi or Synthane gasi-
fication facilities are in the form of flue gas sludge, bottom
ash, and cooling water treatment waste sludge.  Bottom ash is
the primary constituent of wet solids produced by a Synthoil fa-
cility.  Calcium carbonate (CaCO3) and calcium sulfate (CaSO^)
are the primary constituents of flue gas sludge.   The bottom ash
is primarily oxides of aluminum and silicon.  CaC03 is the prin-
cipal constituent of the cooling water treatment waste sludge.
In all cases the amount of cooling water treatment waste is very
small, compared to the bottom ash and flue gas sludge.

     Dry solids waste produced by coal conversion processes is
primarily fly ash composed of oxides of aluminum, silicon, and
iron.  The water in the effluent stream accounts for between 5
(Synthoil)  and 14 (Synthane)  percent of the total water require-
ments of the individual energy facilities (data in Table 5-19
compared with that in Table 5-17).

     Dissolved and wet solids are sent to evaporative holding
ponds and later deposited in landfills.  Dry solids are treated
with water to prevent dusting and deposited in a landfill.1

(2)  Underground Uranium Mine and Mill

     Process effluents from the uranium underground mine' and mill.
will contain significant quantities of suspended and dissolved
solids and moderate levels of radioactive elements.  Total quan-
tities are given in Table 5-19.  The major source of solids is
the mill tailings, shown as dry solids on Table 5-19.  Mill tail-
ings will be ponded as a slurry and then landfilled.  Dissolved
and wet solids will be ponded separately from mill tailings.
After settling, some of this pond water may be used for other
purposes such as irrigation.   It is expected that ponded effluent
will have a solids content equal to or below that of the surface
waters in the area.   Radioactive solids (primarily as radium 226
[Ra-226]) will be precipitated in the pond and later landfilled
with the mill tailings.

5.3.4  Impacts

     This section describes water impacts which result from the
mines and conversion facilities, and from a scenario which in-
cludes construction of all facilities according to the hypothe-
sized scenario schedule.  The water requirements and impacts
associated with expected population increases are included in
the scenario impact description.
     !The environmental problems associated with solid waste dis-
posal in holding ponds and in landfills are discussed in Chapter
10.


                              309
-------
A.  Surface Coal Mines Impacts

     As noted previously, the Pictured Cliffs sandstone aquifer
is about 30 feet below the deepest minable coal seam and would
probably be the only aquifer affected by mining.  Flow patterns
in the aquifer may be disturbed by the blasting required to frag-
ment overburden and coal.

     Surface water drainage patterns will be affected by mine
excavations, some of which will trap runoff.  Unless these ponds
are pumped out regularly, the impounded water may eventually
percolate into the groundwater system or evaporate,  but this is
not expected to produce a significant impact.  Losses in runoff
due to mine excavations are not expected to be significant lo-
cally because area streams are ephemeral and water would quickly
dry up in any case.  This loss of runoff into tributaries of the
San Juan River would not reduce the flow in the river to a great
extent.

B.  Energy Conversion Facilities Impacts1

     Water impacts may be divided into those occurring during
construction and during operation and those occurring because of
the water requirements of facilities and because of effluents
from the facilities.  These impacts are similar for each conver-
sion facility except as they differ in degree.

     Construction activities at the conversion facilities will
remove vegetation and disturb the soil.  These activities have
an effect on surface water quality.  The major effect will result
from increases in the sediment load of local runoff.  Maintenance
areas and petroleum products storage facilities will also be
needed to support construction equipment.  Areas for the storage
of other construction-related materials  (such as aggregate for
a concrete batch plant) may be required as well.  All these fa-
cilities have the potential for contaminating runoff.  Runoff
control methods will be instituted at all of these potential
sources of contaminants and will be channeled to a holding pond
for settling, reuse, and evaporation.  Because the supply of
water to this pond is intermittent, evaporation may claim most
of the water, although some of the water may be used for dust
control.

     Before the water supply pipeline from the San Juan River is
completed, water for construction will be obtained temporarily
from a well drilled into the Morrison sandstone aquifer.  However,
only about 400 acre-feet will be needed from the aquifer before
     Discussion of potential effect of radioactive effluents and
emmission of uranium mines and mills is provided in Chapter 10.


                              310
-------
the pipeline is completed, a small part of the total water supply
available from this aquifer.

     Water requirements for operating a high wet-cooled power
plant (average load factor of 75 percent)  represent 11 percent
of the 1974 depletions for the San Juan River (see Tables 5-15
and 5-17) and 4.5 percent of New Mexico's portion of Upper Colo-
rado River water.1  In contrast, an intermediate wet-cooled power
plant would consume only 1.4 percent of New Mexico's portion of
Upper Colorado River water.  Each synthetic fuels plant will con-
sume from 1.1 percent to 1.8 percent of New Mexico's UCRB allot-
ment, if they are high wet cooled, and from 0.8 to 1.5 percent,
if they are intermediate wet cooled.

     Also, during operation, holding ponds and runoff retention
facilities will decrease 'runoff from the plant sites below pres-
ent levels.  This loss may decrease flow in the San Juan River,
but this effect by itself will be small and temporary.  Also,
this runoff reduction in combination with the water demand of
any one facility could have a salt concentrating effect in the
San Juan.  That effect is likely to be small when considering
one facility at a time.

C.  Scenario Impacts

     Water requirements for direct use by these hypothesized en-
ergy facilities increases from approximately 7,128 acre-ft/yr in
1980 when the Lurgi plant is operating to 46,354 acre-ft/yr by
1990 when the power plant, Synthane, and uranium facilities are
also operating to 58,107 acre-ft/yr by the year 2000 when the
Synthoil plant is added (high wet cooling is assumed in all cases
from Table 5-17).  If intermediate wet cooling is used, estimated
water requirements would be reduced to 32,427 acre-ft/yr in the
year 2000, a reduction of 45 percent.  All of this water will be
taken from the San Juan River.  An irrigation program for rec-
lamation of surface mined land would increase that requirement
to 8,498 acre-ft/yr in 1980, 52,204 acre-ft/yr in 1990, and
66,432 acre-ft/yr in 2000.

     The projected water needs of the expected increases in popu-
lation are shown in Table 5-20.2  This table is divided into res-
ervation and nonreservation requirements;  requirements are pro-
jected both with and without a new town.   The water source for
most towns is the San Juan River or its alluvial aquifer.  These
systems are expected to expand as the municipal demand increases.
(A new town may have individual domestic wells or may pipe water


     Assuming that portion is 652,000 acre-ft/yr.

     2Population increases from secondary industries are not in-
cluded in obtaining the estimates.


                              311
-------
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from the San Juan River.)  Aztec currently gets municipal water
from the Animas River and is experiencing a severe water shortage.

     Wastewater from the energy facilities, which will be im-
pounded in evaporation ponds, will average 575 acre-ft/yr by 1980,
4,760 acre-ft/yr by 1990, and 5,665 acre-ft/yr by 2000.

     Rural populations are assumed to use individual on-site waste
disposal facilities (septic tanks and drain fields), and the ur-
ban population will require waste treatment facilities.  Waste-
water treatment capacity in the municipalities most affected by
energy development activities are shown in Table 5-21.  Waste-
water increases resulting from development-induced population
increases are apportioned as shown in Table 5-22.  New wastewater
treatment facilities adequate to meet the demands generated by
these hypothetical developments and the associated population
increases are being planned for all the impacted communities.
These facilities will need to use the "best practicable" waste
treatment technology to conform to 1983 standards and have al-
lowance for recycling or zero discharge of pollutants to meet
1985 goals.l  The 1985 goals could be met by using effluents for
industrial process make-up water or for irrigating local farmland.

(1)  To 1980

     The Lurgi high-Btu gasification plant and its associated
surface mine will be constructed and in operation by 1980.  Its
consumptive water demand (assuming high wet cooling)  represents
about 1.1 percent of New Mexico's portion of Upper Colorado River
water.  By itself, this does not represent a significant demand
on surface water supplies;  however, it does represent a large
portion of water not already allocated.

     From the present to 1980, most urban growth will be absorbed
by existing communities, and local groundwater systems will not
be significantly affected.   Additional demands will be made on
surface water supplies, but the overall increases should be small
(see Table 5-20).

     Municipalities must secure a permit to withdraw additional
water from surface supplies in the area.  As shown in Tables
5-21 and 5-22, wastewater treatment facilities will be operating
at or exceeding design capacity in Aztec by 1980.  Unless new
facilities come on-line to meet these requirements,  some surface
water pollution may result from overloads and/or bypasses.
     federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972,
 § 101, 301; 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976).

                               313
-------
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 (2)  To 1990

     During the 1980-1990 period, the power plant, the Synthane
high-Btu gasification facility, and the uranium mine and mill
will be constructed and become operational.  Since construction
activities are greatest during this time period, the potential
for surface water contamination by the sediment load as well as
by other contaminants contained in the runoff is also greatest
during this decade.

     The three coal mines in operation by 1990 will affect the
water quality of the Pictured Cliffs sandstone aquifer because,
as indicated previously, it lies only about 30 feet below the
lowest coal bed.  Weathering and leaching of mine wastes and ash
that are deposited in landfills will probably result in poor
quality water filtering into the aquifer.  However, the low an-
nual precipitation of the area lessens the potential seriousness
of this problem.  In any case, water quality in the aquifer is
already poor (TDS from 49 wells average about 25,500 mg/& and
range from 1,000 to 75,000 mg/£) .  In addition, groundwater seep-
age or stormwater runoff will pool in operational areas of mines.
The quality of water impounded in mined-out locations within the
Navajo/Farmington area should be approximately the same as the
quality of water in natural streams.1  These impoundments will
not result in a significant loss of water to the Colorado River
System.  The mines will have encompassed approximately 7,800
acres by 1990 (calculated from Table 5-18).  If it is found that
runoff retention facilities are required for this area, approx-
imately 130 acre-ft/yr of water would be withheld from the local
watersheds.

     The four conversion facilities in operation by 1990 will
probably not significantly affect the quantity of recharge water
fed to the Pictured Cliffs aquifer.  However, the failure or in-
adequacy of liners in on-site holding ponds may result in the
leakage of pollutants into the Pictured Cliffs aquifer.

     Changes in surface water quality will occur primarily as a
result of the combined water demands of all the energy develop-
ment facilities.  The water supply system may eventually have a
salt-concentrating effect because it will remove water with a
relatively low TDS content from the river basin.  Consequently,
some increase in TDS may be noticed at both Lake Powell and Lake
     1U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Western Gasification Company (WESCO)  Coal Gasification Project
and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New
Mexico:  Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols.   Salt Lake City,
Utah:  Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976.

                               316
-------
Mead.1  The TDS concentrations at Shiprock and at Imperial Dam
will increase by approximately 7.1 and 2.9 mg/£ respectively.2
These increases are estimated averages and could be higher at
Shiprock during low-flow periods.  The increases would probably
not vary seasonally at the major reservoirs because of their
large buffer capacity.  The Utah Water Research Laboratory of
Utah State University estimates that the annual economic cost
of salinity ranges from $45,900 to $230,000 for each mg/£ increase
in TDS.3

     In addition to salt concentration because of water with-
drawals, some concentration of suspended solids (sediment) will
occur downstream from the pipeline intakes if a gravel bed/
perforated pipe intake filtration system is used.   This system
will remove relatively clear water, thus leaving most suspended
particules in the San Juan River.  At the plant sites, changes
in surface water quality will be negligible because of the small
amount of runoff (0.1-0.2 inch per year)  and the runoff control
systems provided.  Similarly, plant effluents are not expected
to significantly affect surface water qualities because of the
use of discharge technology that meets the goals of the Federal
Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972.

     Population increases resulting from these developments may
be accommodated by existing communities or by a new town on res-
ervation lands.  Neither is expected to have much effect on
groundwater quality or quantity.  However, some increase in mu-
nicipal and industrial needs must be met from surface water.  As
shown in Tables 5-21 and 5-22, the municipal wastewater loads
will continue to stress the existing system.  The 1976 design
loads will be equalled or exceeded in Farmington,  Aztec, Bloom-
field, and Shiprock.   Current expansion plans will provide ade-
quate capacity in Farmington and Bloomfield if constructed on an
appropriate schedule.   Runoff will be increased by the expansion


     'U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Western Gasification Company (WESCO)  Coal Gasification Project
and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New
Mexico:  Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols.  Salt Lake City,
Utah:Bureau of Reclamation,Upper Colorado Region, 1976.

     2Ibid.  This statement calls for four 1,000 million standard
cubic feet per day gasification plants to be in operation under
1981 conditions.

     3Utah State University, Utah Water Research Laboratory.
Colorado River Regional Assessment Study, Part 1,  Executive
Summary, Basin Profile and Report Digest, for National Commission
on Water Quality.   Logan, Utah:   Utah Water Research Laboratory,
1975.

                               317
-------
of existing towns.  This runoff is generally routed directly into
major streams and will eventually augment flow in the San Juan
River.

(3)  To 2000

     The only major facilities to be added during the 1990-2000
decade are a Synthoil liquefaction plant and its associated coal
mine.  The mine will begin operation in 1999, and the plant will
come on-line in 2000.  Thus, the impacts associated with these
facilities will be primarily related to construction during this
decade.

     The water impacts to 2000 are expected to be qualitatively
about the same as to 1990.  Quantitatively,  the impacts will be
somewhat higher because of the cumulative effect of the three
existing plants and because of the addition of the Synthoil plant.
Population growth will also continue during the decade, resulting
in additional water demands and wastewater treatment requirements.

(4)  After 2000

     After the plants are decommissioned, the structures will
remain.   Although many areas will be reclaimed and revegetated,
irrigation of the areas will ultimately cease.  Subsequently,
vegetation may be lost and erosion may increase.  The berms
around the ponds will also probably lose their protective vege-
tation and erode; the berms may breach as a result.   If this
happens, the materials within the pond site will erode and enter
the surface water system.  Although the salt materials from the
evaporation ponds would be returning to their original source,
the San Juan River, concentrations may be high enough to cause
localized damage to aquatic ecosystems.  Likewise, the addition
of trace materials and solids from the ash disposal and tailing
ponds may have an adverse effect.  The low precipitation in the
scenario area will retard the transport of these materials.

     The towns associated with the energy development will likely
remain but populations will decline.  The effects of increased
storm-water runoff from urban areas and the associated introduc-
tion of contaminants into surface water will also remain unless
the water is treated.

5.3.5  Summary of Water Impacts

     Water for energy development in the Navajo/Farmington area
will be taken from the San Juan River Basin, a subbasin of the
Colorado River.  This water source is limited; estimates of the
New Mexico allotment of UCRB water range from 652,000 acre-ft/yr
to 703,000 acre-ft/yr.  The power plant requires significantly
more water  (about 29,000 acre-ft/yr assuming high wet cooling
                               318
-------
and a 75 percent load factor) than the synthetic fuels plants,
and all coal conversion facilities require significantly more
than the uranium facilities.  Of the coal conversion facilities,
the Lurgi gasification plant requires the smallest water quantity
(about 7,100 acre-ft/yr assuming high wet cooling and a 90 per-
cent load factor).  The greatest water use for all of the coal
conversion facilities is for cooling.  The use of intermediate
cooling would reduce water requirements by 69 percent for the
power plant, and between 18 and 23 percent for the synthetic
fuels plants.  The coal mines that provide feedstock coal for
the facilities will require 10 to 25 percent of the amounts of
water required for the conversion facilities.

     Effluents from the energy facilities will be directed into
clay-lined,  on-site evaporative holding ponds.   For the coal fa-
cilities, fly ash and bottom ash disposal generate the largest
quantities of residuals primarily because the coal contains 19
percent ash.  FGD also generates large quantities of residuals
from power generation.  Other residual quantities from coal con-
version are insignificant.   The only quantitatively significant
residual from the uranium facility is the mill tailings, -but these
are up to 5  times less than residuals from coal plants.

     If all the facilities are constructed,  the total water re-
quirement is as much as 81,750 acre-ft/yr1 (about 12 percent of
New Mexico's annual allotment), including water needs resulting
from development-related population increases and the postulated
new town development.  Combined with other current and planned
surface water usage in the area, this demand may exceed New Mexi-
co's total allotment from the San Juan Basin, depending on the
value used to represent the dependable flow in the Colorado River
at Lees Ferry.

     Wastewater from the energy facilities,  which will be im-
pounded in evaporation ponds, will average 575 acre-ft/yr by 1980
and increase to 5,665 acre-ft/yr by 2000.  Wastewater increases
will also result from population increases.

     Water impacts will increase with the operation of the con-
version facilities and their mines and with population increases.
Poor quality water filtering from the mines to the Pictured Cliffs
sandstone aquifer below the mines may affect the water quality of
the aquifer which is already poor.  Runoff from the plants and
mines will be reduced by holding ponds and water retention facili-
ties.  Increased runoff from the expansion of towns will be di-
rected to the San Juan River.  Increased salt concentrations in
the San Juan River will be caused by water removal.
      Calculated from Tables 5-17, 5-18, and 5-20.

                               319
-------
     A potential long-term groundwater pollution problem is pond
leakage.  Pond liners should forestall this problem during the
life of the plants, but the materials are likely to leach through
the liners eventually and enter the groundwater system.  Simi-
larly, following the cessation of maintenance activities, berms
containing salts, ash, trace materials, sanitary sludge, and scrub-
ber sludge may be destroyed.  If concentrations of these materials
enter surface water systems, both local biota and downstream
water users might be affected.

5.4  SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS

5.4.1  Introduction

     San Juan County, the site of the hypothetical energy devel-
opment proposed in the Navajo/Farmington scenario, is located in
the extreme northwestern corner of New Mexico.

     Understanding the many differences between Indians and non-
Indians in the county is basic to an analysis of the social and
economic effects of energy development within the Navajo/Farming-
ton area.  In the analyses which follow, Indian and non-Indian
and reservation and nonreservation impacts generally are treated
separately.

5.4.2  Existing Conditions

     Less than 6 percent of the land in San Juan County is pri-
vately owned.  The Navajo and the Ute Mountain Reservations oc-
cupy approximately 60 percent of the county; another 4.8 percent
is owned by the state, and 29.5 percent is owned by the federal
government.

     San Juan County's 1974 population was 61,700, 56 percent of
which was located in the three cities of Aztec, Bloomfield, and
Farmington.  Population density countywide was 11.2 persons per
square mile; outside the three cities, it was 4.9.  Approximately
35 percent of the county's 1970 population was Indian, 96 percent
living on the Navajo Reservation.  Thirteen percent of the pop-
ulation either had Spanish surnames or used Spanish as their pri-
mary language.  Less than 1 percent was black.  Except for a
slight decline between 1960 and 1970, the county's population
has been increasing over the past 35 years.  Population in the
three cities has also been increasing, and people have been some-
what more mobile than is generally the case in the western U.S.
                              320
-------
     Housing in the county is relatively new, four-fifths of it
having been built since 1950.  Between 1970 and 1973, 739 new
homes were constructed; 551 in 1973 alone.  Mobile homes com-
prised about 12 percent of all the houses in Farmington.1

     The median value of a single-family dwelling in the county
was about $13,000 in 1970  ($21,000 in 1975 dollars); the median
rent was $80 ($130 in 1975 dollars).   Both were somewhat higher
in Farmington:   the median house value there was about $18,000,
and the median rent was about $165 per month.2  In early 1976,
the minimum price housing in Farmington was about $22,000, and
the median was over $30,000.  Rents ranged from $175 to about
$260 per month.3

     The county is governed by a board of commissioners.  A sub-
stantial planning capacity has been developed within the County
Planning and Research Department, which now has both a planner
and assistant planner.  Except for transportation and housing
supply, the county seems to have an adequate infrastructure and
service mix to accommodate additional population growth. "*  There
is no countywide zoning ordinance at present.  However, a land-
use study is under way, the results of which are to be used by
the commissioners to decide whether a zoning ordinance is needed,

     Shiprock is the only urban center on the San Juan County
portion of the Navajo Reservation.5  It is unincorporated, has
no established boundaries, and is governed by the Tribal Council,
Public services are provided by the tribal, county, state, and
     ^.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.  County
and City Data Book:  A Statistical Abstract Supplement.  Washing-
ton,D.C.:Government Printing Office,1970;New Mexico, Bureau
of Business and Economic Research.  Community Profile:  Farming-
ton, 1974-75.  Santa Fe, N. Mex.:   New Mexico, Department of
Development, 1974.

     2Ibid.

     3Farmington (New Mexico)  Chamber of Commerce.  General In-
formation,  January 15, 1976.  Farmington, N. Mex.:  Chamber of
Commerce, 1976.

     4See Zickefoose, Paul W.   A Socioeconomic Analysis of the
Impact of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center
Area.  Las Cruces,  N. Mex.:  New Mexico State University, Center
for Business Services, 1974; and Farmington.  General Information.

     5There are smaller, unincorporated communities in the Farm-
ington/Shiprock corridor.  These include Kirtland, Fruitland,
and Waterflow.


                              321
-------
federal governments.  Water, sewer, and electrical services are
provided generally only along the highway south from Shiprock.
Health services are provided by the Public Health Service and
the Bureau of Indi an Affairs (BIA) .  Public safety is maintained
by die Navajo and dtate police forces and the county sheriff.
The BIA and the state of New Mexico construct and maintain the
roads.

     Farmington, the area's largest city, is governed by a four-
member council, has a city manager, and has a professional plan-
ning capability.  City services include water, sewers, electric-
ity,  police and fire protection, and recreation.  There are no
social assistance services apart from those provided jointly by
the county and state.

     According to the city planning department, most of the ser-
vice delivery systems are currently operating at or near capacity.
A recently completed status report identifies some $30 million
worth of projects that are needed to absorb already anticipated
population impacts.1  In the view of both city and county offi-
cials,  the primary need is construction and operating funds, not
help in identifying and analyzing problems.  The area is unusual
in that relatively few studies have focused on energy development
in San Juan County, in contrast to many other areas of the West.

     The other off-reservation cities, Aztec and Bloomfield, have
mayor-council governments and a city manager.  Except for elec-
tricity, services in both are the same as those provided by
Farmington.

     Although a major portion of the reservation is within San
Juan County, the Navajos retain a separate identity as the Navajo
Nation.  While the Navajos govern themselves, there are numerous
unanswered questions in Indian law that can affect energy devel-
opment in the area.  For example, the water rights of Indians
generally2 are in question.  The applicability of state laws
intended to regulate energy development, particularly environ-
mental laws, is also unresolved.3

     1Farmington, New Mexico, City of.  Status Report, March 11,
1976.   Farmington, N. Mex.:  City of Farmington, 1976.

     2Pelcyger, Robert S.  "Indian Water Rights, Some Emerging
Frontiers," in Rocky Mountain Mineral Law Foundation.  Rocky Moun-
tain Mineral Law Institute:  Proceedings of the Twenty-First
Annual Institute, July 17-19, 1975.  New York, N.Y.:Matthew
Bender, 1975, pp. 743-75.

     3Will, J. Kemper.  Questions and Answers on EPA's Authority
Regarding Indian Tribes.  Denver, Colo.:  U.S., Environmental
Protection Agency, Region VIII, 1976.

                              322
-------
     Concerning its ability to absorb and serve the anticipated
population increases, the tribe has been increasing its profes-
sional staff, particularly its capacity to plan for economic
development.  The Tribal Council, the legislative arm of tribal
government, has also created specialized commissions to deal with
revenue needs and environmentally related challenges.  For exam-
ple, the Navajo Tax Commission is studying the potential for es-
tablishing property taxes within the reservation as a means of
funding traditional services provided by the Council.  In addi-
tion, this Commission is involved in efforts to renegotiate
existing royalty rates for mining activity on Navajo land be-
cause the tribe believes it did not receive equitable treatment
in the past.  Another special commission, the Navajo Environmental
Protection Commission, was created in response to the Navajo's
need for an independent environmental assessment, regulatory,
and enforcement organization.  This five-member commission has the
authority to implement the environmental policy of the tribe,
serves as a forum for environmental information collection, and
considers adverse environmental impacts associated with potential
development on the reservation.1

     The county's economy is characterized by diversity as illus-
trated by the 1973 distribution of employment shown in Table 5-23.
However, the reservation economy is still predominantly agri-
cultural, and the unemployment rate among Indians is well above
the county average shown in Table 5-23.  The traditional Navajo
economy has centered around livestock grazing and near subsis-
tence size irrigated plots.  In recent years, subsistence agri-
culture has been supplemented by turquoise jewelry making and
weaving.  Employment off the reservation and some industrializa-
tion on the reservation have become necessary to provide employ-
ment on land already used beyond its capacity for subsistence
agriculture.2

     Farmington is the economic service center for northwestern
New Mexico and thus contains a major portion of the available
professional and supporting services for the various industrial
     :For a discussion of the development of the Navajo Environ-
mental Protection Commission and problems related to the Commis-
sion's attempts to implement its regulatory and assessment
potential, see Cortner, Hanna J.  The Navajo Environmental Pro-
tection Commission and the Environmental Impact Statement, Lake
Powell Research Project Bulletin 27.  Los Angeles, Calif.:
University of California, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary
Physics, 1976.

     2Austin, Lynn A., et al.  Socio-Economic Impacts of Coal
Mining on Communities in Northwestern New Mexico, Bulletin 652.
Las Cruces, N. Mex.:   New Mexico State University, 1977, p.  35.

                              323
-------
            TABLE 5-23:
EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION IN
SAN JUAN COUNTY, 1973

INDUSTRY
Total Civilian Work Force
Total Employed
Agricultures
Manufacturing
Mining
Contract Construction
Transportation, Communications,
and Utilities
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance, and
Real Estate
Government
Services and Miscellaneous
Total Unemployed

EMPLOYEES
21,193
19,371
1,597
1,754
1,803
1,943

2,015
3,596

438
3,439
2,787
1, 822a
% OF
EMPLOYED

100.0
8.2
9.1
9.3
10.0

10.4
18.6

2. 3
17.8
14.4

     Source:  State of New Mexico Department of Development,
     Economic Development Division.
     a8.2 percent of labor force.
and agricultural activities in the area.  However, some supporting
services are available in Aztec, Bloomfield, and Shiprock.

     Per capita income in the county was $3,147 in 1972, which
was below the average of $3,512 for the state as a whole.1  For
the Navajo Nation as a whole, the median individual income was
$1,984 in 1969 and about $2,220 in 1972, well below the county
and state averages.2  Thus, relatively higher incomes off the
reservation contrast sharply with low incomes among Navajos.


     1 University of New Mexico, Bureau of Business and Economic
Research.  New Mexico Statistical Abstract, 1975.  Albuquerque,
N. Mex.:  University of New Mexico, 1975.

     2U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.  Census
of Population:  1970; Subject Reports;  Final Report PC(2)-1F:
American Indians.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office,
1973.
                              324
-------
5.4.3  Factors Producing Impacts

     Two factors associated with energy facilities dominate as
the cause of social and economic impacts:  manpower requirements
and taxes levied on energy facilities.  Tax rates are tied to
capital costs, and/or the value of coal extracted, and/or the
value of energy produced.  Major taxes which apply to the scenario
facilities  (a power plant, Lurgi and Synthane gasification plants,
Synthoil liquefaction plant, and uranium mill)  and their asso-
ciated mines are a sales tax, royalty payments on Indian-owned
coal, and an energy conversion tax.

     The manpower requirements for each scenario facility and its
associated surface mine are given in Tables 5-24 through 5-28.
For all mines, the manpower requirement for operation exceeds the
peak construction requirement by at least two times.  However,
the reverse is true for the conversion facilities.  The peak con-
struction manpower requirement exceeds the operation requirement
by 1.7 (Synthoil plant) to 7.0 times  (Lurgi and Synthane plants).
In combination, the total manpower requirement for each coal mine-
conversion facility increases from the first year when construc-
tion begins, peaks, and then declines as construction activity
ceases.  The uranium mine-mill combination is characterized by
a steady increase in manpower requirements.  The peak total man-
power requirement for each of the Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil
mine-plant combinations is about 5,000 and, for the power plant,
about 3,000.  The fraction of the peak total manpower requirement
needed for operation of the mine-plant combination ranges from 0.2
for the Lurgi and Synthane plants to 0.6 for the Synthoil plant.
The total manpower required for operation of the Synthoil facility
and its associated mine is more than three times that for each of
the other plant-mine combinations.

     A sales tax which is tied to the capital costs of the fa-
cilities, royalty payments which are tied to the value of the
coal, and an energy conversion tax which is tied to the value of
the energy produced generate revenue.  The capital costs of the
conversion facilities and mines hypothesized for the Farmington
scenario are given in Table 5-29.  For coal facilities,. costs
range from about $1,125 million  (mine-gasification plant) to
$2,170 million (mine-liquefaction plant) in 1975 dollars. Capital
costs of the uranium mine-mill are considerably lower at $30
million.

     Sales tax during the construction phase, most of which goes
to the state government, is levied on materials and equipment onl}
(Table 5-29).  The current sales tax rate in New Mexico is 4 per-
cent.  Royalty payments are normally about 12.5 percent of the
                               325
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value of federally owned coal,1 of which 50 percent is returned
to state and local governments.  However, all royalties for coal
on Indian reservations are retained by the tribe.  In New Mexico,
an energy conversion tax is levied on the power plant at a rate
of 0.4 mill per kWh.

5.4.4  Impacts

     The nature and extent of the social and economic impacts
depend on the size and character of the community or communities
in which workers and their families live, on the state and local
tax structure, and on many other social and economic factors.  A
scenario, which calls for the development of power, Lurgi, Syn-
thane, Synthoil, and uranium facilities according to a specified
time schedule (see Table 5-1),  is used here as a vehicle through
which the nature and extent of the impacts are explored.  The
discussion relates each impact type to the hypothetical scenario
and includes population impacts, housing and school impacts,
economic impacts, fiscal impacts, social and cultural impacts,
and political and governmental impacts.

A.  Population Impacts

     Employment data for both energy development2 and the NIIP3 are
listed in Table 5-30.  Population impacts were determined using an
economic base model, construction and operation employment data
from Table 5-30, sets of secondary/basic employment multipliers
which increase during the early years of energy development  (Table
5-31), and population/employment multipliers which include wives
     1 This is the federal government's target rate; actual rates
will vary from mine to mine.

     2Employment data for energy facilities are from Carasso, M.,
et al.  The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols.  San Francisco,
Calif.:  Bechtel Corporation,1975.

     3For discussions of the NIIP, see Morrison-Knudsen Company.
Navajo New Town Feasibility Overview.  Boise, Idaho:  Morrison-
Knudsen,1975.Morrison-Knudsen's population projections of the
project are from Zickefoose, Paul W.  A Socioeconomic Analysis of
the Impact of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth	
Center Area.  Las Cruces, N. Mex.:  New Mexico State University,
Center for Business Services, 1974, p. 178.

                               332
-------
   TABLE 5-30:
NEW EMPLOYMENT IN SAN JUAN COUNTY
FROM ENERGY DEVELOPMENT AND
NAVAJO INDIAN IRRIGATION PROJECT,
1975-2000
YEAR
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
ENERGY
CONSTRUCTION
0
40
250
620
1,120
1,560
2,890
5,440
6,880
70
820
2,890
4,890
2,830
0
0
0
0
30
260
1,010
2,070
2,380
1,730
640
0
ENERGY
OPERATION
0
0
0
0
270
270
550
660
940
1,040
2,130
2,130
2,400
2,400
3,270
3,270
3,270
3,270
3,270
3,270
3,270
3,270
3,270
3,550
4,180
5,100
NAVAJO INDIAN
IRRIGATION PROJECT3
0
460
570
660
810
980
1,190
1,510
1,600
1,740
1,780
2,120
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
2,140
TOTAL
0
500
820
1,280
2,200
2,810
4,630
7,610
9,420
2,850
4,730
7,140
9,430
7,370
5,410
5,410
5,410
5,410
5,440
5,670
6 ,420
7,480
7,790
7,420
6,960
7,240
 Source:  Zickefoose, Paul W.  A Socioeconomic Analysis of
the Impact of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock
Growth Center Area.  Las Cruces, N. Hex.:  New Mexico State
University, Center for Business Services, 1974, p. 178.
                           333
-------
        TABLE  5-31:
ASSUMED  SECONDARY/HAS1C  EMPLOYMENT
MULTIPLIERS  FOR NAVAJO/FARMINGTON
SCENARIO,  1976-2000a


DATE

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993-2000
CONSTRUCTION PHASE
MULTIPLIERS


ANGLO
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7




















NAVAJO
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

OPERATION PHASE
MULTIPLIERS

ANGLO



1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0

NAVAJO



0.20
0.25
0.30
0,35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0. 70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90

ASSUMED POPULATION/EMPLOYEE MULTIPLIERS13
ACTIVITY
Construction
Operation
Service
NON-NAVAJO NAVAJO
2.05 5.0
2.30 5.0
2.00 j 4.0
aThese values were  determined by synthesizing materials from several  sources.
See New Mexico State  University, Department of Agricultural  Economics and Agri-
cultural Business.  Socioeconomic Impact on Rural Communities of  Developing
New Mexico's Coal Resources'  Las Cruces, N. Mex. :   New Mexico State  University ,
1975, pp .  37-53; Morrison-Knudson Company.  Navajo New Town  Feasibility Over-
view.  Boise, Idaho:  Morrison-Knudsen, 1975"; Robbins, Lynn  A.  The Impact "of
Power Development on  the Navajo Nation, Lake Powell Research Pro}ect  Bulletin 7.
Los Angeles , Calif .:  University of California, Institute of Geophysics and
Planetary Physics,  1975; U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of  Reclama-
tion.  El Paso Coal Gasification Project, New Mexico:   Draft Environmental State-
ment.  Salt Lake City, Utah:  Bureau of Reclamation,  Upper Colorado  Region,
Z"Ickef oose , Paul W.  A Socioeconomic Analysis of the Impact of  New Highway Con-
struction in the Shiprock Growth Center Area.  Las Cruces, N. Mex.:   New Mexico
State University Center  for Business Services, 1974;  U.S., Department of the
Interior, Bureau of  Reclamation.  Western Gasification Company  (WESCO)  Coal Gas-
ification Project and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New~
Mexico:  Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols.  Salt Lake City,  Utah":  Bureau of
Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, T976.  Navajo household size  was 5.1 persona
per household in 1970 and the multipliers in the table may be large  on  average
considering single workers.

bNon-Navajo '.Anglo)  population multipliers are adapted from Mountain West Re-
search.  Construction iv'orker Profile, Final Report.  Washington,  D.C.:  Old
West Regional Commission, 1976.
                                     334
-------
in service jobs  (Table 5-31).l  The resulting projected population
increases are .shown in Table  5-32, Figure 5-6, and Figure 5-7.  In
this analysis, population increases are assumed to be absorbed
both by existing communities  and by a new town to be built in the
Burnham area by energy developers.   The populations for the new
town in Table 5-32 are postulated as an example of the effect of
the town.  It would generally house less than 20 percent of the
Navajo population in the county.

     Because of the assumptions concerning Navajo employment, the
Navajo population in San Juan County is expected to double by 1983
and to reach approximately 80,000 by 2000.   (For example, if fam-
ily members of Navajos remain in Arizona, then the estimates in
Table 5-32 are high.)   Farmington will grow to 50,000 by 1987, but
after a construction phase will not reach that size again until
2000.  Overall, the county population will more than double be-
tween 1975 and 2000 in the scenario.

     The population of the county will increase about 33 percent
by 1980 and 86 percent by 1990.  The relative proportion of Na-
vajos should increase from the present 40 to 50 percent.  Some
of the impetus for the increase in Navajo population will be the
job opportunities afforded by the NIIP.  Much of the increase is
expected to occur in the vicinity of Shiprock, where housing with
plumbing is being provided by the Navajo Tribe, but the new town
would eventually be the largest urban area in the Navajo part of
the county.


     Population change also included natural increase which was
assumed to be:  1.0 percent annually from 1975 to 1990 and 0.8
percent thereafter for the Anglo population; and 2.0 percent from
1975 to 1990, and 1.5 percent thereafter for the Navajo popula-
tion.  The Indian employment on energy projects was assumed to
be one-half of the total through 1990 and 80 percent after 1990.
All energy employees are assumed to come from outside of San Juan
County. .Ninety percent of NIIP employment is assumed to be
Navajo, 10 percent of which is assumed to come from outside San
Juan County.   See U.S., Department of Interior, Bureau of Recla-
mation.  Western Gasification Company (WESCO) Coal Gasification
Project and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc.,
New Mexico:  Final Environmental Statement,  2 vols.  Salt Lake
City, Utah:  Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976,
pp. 3-173 to 3-178.

     2Morrison-Knudsen Company.  Navajo New Town Feasibility Over-
view .  Boise, Idaho:   Morrison-Knudsen, 1975.  Although the pre-
liminary plans for the town suggest a fairly even Navajo-Anglo
population, its location on the reservation and Farmington's
proximity will probably eliminate its attraction to non-Indian
families.   WESCO1s final environmental impact statement does not
discuss a new town,  stating that it is not a near-term possibility.


                               335
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    70-
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    60-
    50-
40-
30-
    20-
    10-
                                                   Total
                                                   Nonreservation
                                                   Farmington
                                                Aztec


                                                Bloomfield
                                                Other
                                                Nonreservation
    1975
          1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
     FIGURE  5-6:
               POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR NON-NAVAJO
               PORTION OF SAN JUAN COUNTY, 1980-2000
                               337
-------
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   80
   70-
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    10
    1975
                                                  Total
                                                  Reservation
                                                  Other
                                                  Navajo
                                                    New Town

                                                    Shiprock
                                                    Area
              1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
FIGURE 5-7:
               POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR NAVAJO  RESERVATION

               PORTION OF SAN JUAN COUNTY,  1975-2000
                            338
-------
B.  Housing and School Impacts

(1)  Housing

     As shown in Table 5-33, the number of households in the
county are projected to increase 145 percent by 2000.  Navajo
housing demand will double by 1983 and will be three times the
1975 level by the late 1990's.

     Much of the required new housing could be supplied by con-
tinued expansion of the Navajo Tribal housing development at
Shiprock, which has already provided several hundred one- and
two-family homes with plumbing.1  A shortfall in housing supply
could result in a scattering of hogans,  shanties, and mobile
homes without running water in the vicinity of the irrigation
and energy projects.  If the new town is built, it could provide
new employment opportunities and supply a significant proportion
of the housing need for Navajo families.  Water for the town
could be drawn from the San Juan River along with water for the
energy facilities.  Finally, clusters of housing in the Farming-
ton/Shiprock corridor are likely.  Some Navajo homes in this
area might be provided with running water by 1985.

     By 2000, new off-reservation housing demands in Farmington,
Aztec, and Bloomfield will be approximately 4,000, 800, and 300
homes, respectively.  With few vacancies in the housing market,
many of these may be mobile homes near existing developments or
along the highway east and west of Farmington.2  The spread of
mobile homes outside urban areas will be constrained primarily
by the availability of water but also by the availability of
other utilities and the location of privately owned land in the
county.

(2)  Schools

     As shown in Table 5-33, school enrollment can be expected
to increase through 2000.  These school enrollment changes also
show distinctions between Indians and non-Indians.  The Central
Consolidated School District serving the reservation will be the
most affected.  The number of students will more than double by

     Running water is unavailable except in the northern section
of the county.  Even there, it was unavailable until Shiprock
was hooked up with the Farmington municipal system.  In the cen-
tral and southern parts of the county, poor quality groundwater
is the only supply.  See Section 5.3.

     2U.S., Department of the Interior,  Bureau of Reclamation.
El Paso Coal Gasification Project, New Mexico:  Draft Environ-
mental Statement.  Salt Lake City, Utah:  Bureau of Reclamation,
Upper Colorado Region, 1974, pp. 2-123 to 2-130.

                              339
-------
     TABLE 5-33:  ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL
                  ENROLLMENT IN SAN JUAN COUNTY, 1975-2000

CATEGORY
Households







Elementary
Enrollment
(20% of
population) c




Secondary
Enrollment
(10% of
population) c





YEAR
1975
1980
1983
1985
1987
1990
1995
2000
1975
1980
1983
1985
1987
1990
1995
2000
1975
1980
1983
1985
1987
1990
1995
2000
NAVAJO RESERVATION
PORTION3
5,000
7,200
11,000
10,100
12,600
14,350
16,200
19,900
5,000
7,200
11,000
10,100
12,600
11,500
12,950
15,900
2,500
3,600
5,500
5,050
6,300
5,750
6,500
7,950
NONRESERVATION
PORTIONb
11,350
14,150
19,600
16,500
20,300
17,750
19,350
20,200
7,500
9,350
12,950
10,900
13,450
11,700
12,750
13,300
3,750
4,650
6,500
5,450
6,700
5,850
6,400
6,650

TOTAL
16,350
21,350
30,600
26,600
32,900
32,100
35,550
40,100
12,500
16,550
23,950
21,000
26,050
23,200
25,700
29,200
6,250
8,250
12,000
10,500
13,000
11,600
12,900
14,600
aBased on five persons per household through 1985 and four per-
sons per household after.

bBased on 3.3 persons per household.  Both this and the above
assumption give high estimates during construction.

C0verall averages, which may be high during construction.
                              340
-------
1983 to 16,500 and then remain relatively constant until about
2000.  Both elementary and secondary enrollment peak in 1987 and
again in 2000, and a low point appears about 1985.

     At 30 students per classroom, about 300 classrooms will be
needed in the Central School District by 1983 and another 250
by the year 2000.  Financing for school construction on the res-
ervation could be gained from the proposed energy projects if
property taxes are levied, as they can be used for this purpose.1

     However, the revenues would lag behind the need by as much
as 3 years.  Some prepayment plan, or the proceeds from coal roy-
alties, could provide the revenue for school construction with
the necessary lead time.2  New schools in the Burnham area, in
particular, would help eliminate the present necessity for board-
ing schools.3

     In the Farmington, Aztec, and Bloomfield School Districts,
enrollment can be expected to increase somewhat during construc-
tion peaks.11   The Farmington School District had excess class-
room capacity in 19745 but will need about 265 classrooms by
1983.  With expected enrollments, the need for additional class-
room space will be minimal after the 1980's.

     In higher education, the San Juan College campus of New
Mexico University in Farmington  (600-700 students) and the Ship-
rock Branch of Navajo Community College (more than 200 students)


     1 Property taxes generally do not exist in the Navajo Nation.
However, a large portion of school costs are provided from the
state level.

     2Some of the financial requirements will also be borne by
the federal government, since currently about one-fourth of the
Navajo children attend BIA schools.

     3U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
El Paso Coal Gasification Project, New Mexico:  Draft Environ-
mental Statement.  Salt Lake City, Utah:  Bureau of Reclamation,
Upper Colorado Region, 1974, pp. 2-121, 3-72 to 3-73.

     uNo large increases are expected because of the declining
birth rate of the white population.  U.S., Department of Com-
merce, Bureau of the Census.  "Projections of the Population of
the United States, by Age and Sex:  1972-2000."  Current Popula-
tion Reports, Series P-25, No. 493 (1972).

     5Real Estate Research Corporation.  Excess Cosr Burden,
Problems and Future Development in Three Energy Impacted Com-
munities of the West.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Department of the
Interior,  Office of "Minerals Policy Development, 1975, p. IV-14.

                              341
-------
will perhaps triple their current enrollments.  As employment
opportunities become available to more Navajos, vocational train-
ing at the Shiprock Branch may increase even more.  Training fa-
cilities, such as the Navajo Engineering and Construction Author-
ity, train workers in heavy construction trades; the demand for
this training can be expected to increase as more energy develop-
ment takes place on the reservation.l

C.  Economic Impacts

     One immediate change from energy development will be in
local income distribution.  In San Juan County, positive bene-
fits will accrue to the Navajo population as new employment op-
portunities allow them to increase their incomes and improve
their living standards.

     Currently, two of the greatest disparities between Indians
and non-Indians occur in income and housing conditions.  The 1969
median income of white families in San Juan County was $9,343;
the overall median in the county was $8,139.  On the Navajo Res-
ervation as a whole, a median individual income was $1,984;2
comparable data on Navajo family income in the county are not
available.

     As shown in Table 5-34, the percentage of families with in-
comes in the $8,000-10,000 range increases through 1985 and then
declines.3  The median income and the proportion of households
earning $15,000 and over fluctuates with the amount of con-
struction activity (compare with Table 5-30).   Overall, there
will be relatively fewer low-income families,  the result being
a fairly constant median income.  However, an overall increase
in earnings for Navajos is expected, primarily because of a
greater number of on-reservation job opportunities.  The pro-
jected income distribution in Table 5-34 includes income increases
for several hundred Navajo households currently in the area.  De-
creases in overall median income, when they occur, reflect a
relative decrease in high-paying jobs in the oil and gas indus-
tries .


     ^ickefoose, Paul W.  A Socioeconomic Analysis of the Impact
of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center Area.
Las Cruces, N. Mex.:  New Mexico State University, Center for Busi-
ness Services, 1974, pp. 131, 148-49.

     2U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.  Census
of Population:  1970; Subject Reports:  Final Report PC(2)-1F:
American Indians.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office,
1973.

     3The income estimates here do not take into account national
trends in income growth from productivity gains and other causes.

                              342
-------
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     A second major economic effect will be the expansion of
business activity, particularly on the Navajo Reservation where
a number of new business establishments should be located.  The
potential of a concentrated market in the new town near Burnham
would be attractive to businesses, but several bottlenecks to
business development might occur.  A major problem will be fi-
nancing new enterprises since credit, even from the Small Busi-
ness Administration, appears to be difficult to obtain.1  Also,
since reservation land is communally owned and may not be sold,
a use-right must be obtained from both the tribal government and
the area agency of the BIA before a business can be established.
The application process involves some 20 steps and may take up to
5 years to complete.2  This has discouraged business activity on
the reservation, including those in the two largest expenditure
categories for Navajos:  automobile and truck sales and food
purchases.3  Most of the commercial benefits that will follow
from an increase in the income of the San Juan County Navajos
will go to businesses in Gallup and Farmington.  It appears that
business activity in these two communities will increase in any
case, and that activity at Shiprock and the new town site could
be encouraged by an easing of credit and tribal policies on land
acquisition.

     Additional industries which may locate in the county include
cattle processing facilities (feedlots and slaughter operations)
of the Navajo Agricultural Products Industry,  on-site facilities
to process by-products of gasification, "* and a possible rail
spur north from Gallup to B-urnham or Shiprock.5  There is con-
siderable uncertainty regarding the latter two.

     The extent to which usual boom effects will occur in San
Juan County is not known.  Local inflation in housing costs and
wage rates for service workers is taking place, but public ser-
vices and facilities are in much better shape than in more


     1\1.S., Commission on Civil Rights.  The Navajo Nation:  An
American Colony.  Washington, D.C.:  Commission on Civil Rights,
1975, pp. 31-39.

     2Ibid., pp. 39-40.

     3Morrison-Knudsen Company.  Navajo New Town Feasibility
Overview.  Boise, Idaho:  Morrison-Knudsen, 1975, p. II-2.

     "Ibid., pp. III-l to III-2.

     5Zickefoose, Paul W.  A Socioeconomic Analysis of the Impact
of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center Area.
Las Cruces, N. Mex. :  New Mexico State University, Center for Busi-
ness Services, 1974, pp. 200-2.


                              344
-------
isolated areas with no large towns.  Price increases for retail
goods and services will affect both Indians and non-Indians; the
largest effect will be felt by those who do not benefit from wage
inflation.

D.  Fiscal Impacts

     Public finance aspects are complicated by the location of
facilities on an Indian reservation, as well as recent changes
in federal mineral policies.  The "dual'entitlement" status of
Indians means that the federal government provides many services
(such as sanitation, health, and education), but local govern-
ment must stand ready to provide services to Indians in their
role as U.S. citizens.1  The tribal council acts as another level
of government in performing many traditional local government
functions, such as police protection.  Nevertheless, no public
agency can levy property taxes within the reservation, except
for a few limited items.  As noted above, the Navajo Tax Commis-
sion is studying the potential for establishing property taxes.
At rates comparable with Farming-ton's, some $57 million per year
could be collected from the energy facilities in our scenario.2

     The only substantial new revenue source available to the
Tribal Council will be a royalty on coal.  The amount of money
involved is difficult to predict, because it depends on negoti-
ation, but appears to be 12.5 percent.3  That would generate
$47.3 million annually for the Navajos by the end of the century.

     For expenditures, the Tribal Council is assumed to provide
all local government services for residents except education,
health care, and construction of water and sewage facilities.1*


     •'U.S., Commission on Civil Rights.  The Navajo Nation:  An
American Colony.  Washington, D.C,:  Commission on Civil Rights,
1975.

     2Zickefoose, Paul W.  A. So_ci gee gnomic Analysis of the  Impact
of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center Area.
Las Cruces, N. Mex.:  New Mexico State University, Center for Busi-
ness Services, 1974, p. 152.

     3"Navajos Up Royalty Requirements for New Mexico Coal  Gasifi-
cation Project."  Coal Industry News, Vol. 1, No. 5  (December 12,
1977) , p. 9.

     ^In New Mexico, state and federal governments pay for  most
public school costs  (79 percent in San Juan County), and more
than one-fourth of the Navajo children attend federal  (BIA)
schools.  The Indian Health Service handles the other functions
named above.  See Morrison-Knudsen Company.  Navajo New Town
Feasibility Overview.  Boise, Idaho:  Morrison-Knudsen, 1975,
p. 111-16.

                               345
-------
The remaining functions should require $337 per capita for cap-
ital costs1 and $129 per capita for annual operations.2  Combining
these data with the projected population increases, tribal fi-
nances would develop as shown in Table 5-35.  The Tribe faces
deficits at most times until 1983, when the second mine begins
operations.3  Thereafter, royalties are more than adequate, yield-
ing surpluses of up to $10 million per year.

     Off the reservation, local governments will likely rely pri-
marily on residential and commercial property taxes, sales tax,
and utility fees to obtain revenue from the energy developments.
San Juan County's 1973 tax rolls showed noncorporate valuations
of $3,030 per capita (1975 prices).1*  Applying this factor to
the prevailing Farmington mill levies5 and adding the current
average utility bill ($216 per capita per year),* potential muni-
cipal revenues are shown in Table 5-36.

     Sales and income taxes depend primarily on the aggregate of
new income.  Based on the projected distributions of household
income and current New Mexico tax rates,7 an average of 4.4 per-
cent of new personal income will be due the state in income tax.
     JTHK Associates, Inc.  Impact Analysis and Development Pat-
terns Related to an Oil Shale Industry;   Regional Development and
Land Use Study.  Denver, Colo.:   THK Associates, 1974, p. 30.

     2U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.  The
Statistical Abstract of the United States.  Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1975, Tables 429 and 432.

     3Note that the population estimates include the irrigation
project, but the revenue estimates do not.

     "Zickefoose, Paul W.  A Spcipeconomic Analysis of the Impact
of New Highway Construction in the Shiprock Growth Center Area.
Las Cruces, N. Mex.:   New Mexico State University, Center for
Business Services, 1974, p. 28.

     5New Mexico, Department of Development, Economic Development
Division, and University of New Mexico,  Bureau of Business and
Economic Research.  Community Profile;  Farmington, 1974-75.
Santa Fe, N. Mex.:  New Mexico,  Department of Development, 1974.

     6Real Estate Research Corporation.   Excess Cost Burden, Prob-
lems and Future Development in Three Energy Impacted Communities
of the West.  Washington, D.C.:   U.S., Department of the Interior,
Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, Table 17.

     7Bureau of Census.  The Statistical Abstract of the U.S.
Table 435.
                              346
-------
   TABLE  5-35:
FISCAL  IMPACTS ON NAVAJO TRIBAL  GOVERNMENT
(millions of 1975 dollars)
YEAR
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1990
1995
2000
NEW CAPITAL INVESTMENT
EACH YEAR
0.77
0.61
0.55
1.02
0.74
1.96
2.53
2.01
0
0
1.39
2.48
5.00
OPERATING COSTS
ABOVE 1975 LEVELS3
(.29)0.29
(.23)0.53
(.21)0.74
(.39)1.13
(.28)1.41
(.75)2.16
(.97)3.13
(.77)3.90
(-1.52)2.38
(.90)3.28
(.89)4.17
(.95)5.12
(1.91)7.03
NEW COAL
ROYALTIES13
0
0
1.98
1.98
3.96
3.96
3.96
8.26
8.26
12,54
16.50
16.50
23.09
SURPLUS
(deficit)
(1.06)
(1.14)
.69
(0.17)
1.81
(0.16)
(1.70)
2.35
5.88
9.26
10.94
8.90
11.06
aNumbers in parentheses show increases over the previous year.
not in parentheses are the operating costs for that year.

 If the rate is  55 cents per ton.
                                         Numbers
     TABLE  5-36:  PROJECTED ADDITIONAL UTILITY  FEES AND
                   PROPERTY TAXES, NONRESERVATION  COMMUNITIES
                   (millions of 1975  dollars)
SOURCE
Property tax, state
Property tax, local
Utility fees
1980
0.12
0.46
1.13
1985
0.28
1.10
2.72
1990
0.47
1.85
4.55
1995
0.55
2.17
5.36
2000
0.72
2.85
7.03
                               347
-------
     TABLE 5-37:  PROJECTED ADDITIONAL INCOME AND SALES TAXES
                   (millions of  1975 dollars)
SOURCE
Personal income
Taxable sales
State share,
sales tax (4%)
Local share,
sales tax (2%)
State income tax
1980
51.80
18.10

0.72

0.36
2.28
1985
107.30
37.50

1.50

0.75
4.76
1990
165.00
57.70

2.31

1.15
7.18
1995
197.60
69.20

2.77

1.38
8.75
2000
235.80
82.50

3.30

1.65
10.48
Assuming further, that five-eighths of personal income will be
spent off the reservation, and that 56 percent of that will be
on items subject to sales tax, income-related taxes can be sum-
marized as in Table 5-37.

     Finally, the state of New Mexico taxes coal mining and elec-
trical production directly.  "Privilege" and "severance" taxes
total 1.25 percent of the gross value of the coal (less some
minor deductions).  Electricity generation is taxed at a rate of
0.4 mill per kWh.]  Based on scenario assumptions, these taxes
should result in the revenues shown in Table 5-38.

     The various revenues calculated above can be regrouped by
level of government, as shown in Table 5-39, and then compared
with new expenditures (Tables 5-35 and 5-40).
        TABLE 5-38:
PROJECTED TAX REVENUES, PRIVILEGE
AND SEVERANCE TAXES
(millions of 1975 dollars)
SOURCE
Coal
Electricity
1980
0.8
0.0
1985
2.9
7.8
1990
4.2
7.8
1995
4.7
7.8
2000
7.3
7.8
     *The current law has been challenged as an unconstitutional
interference with interstate commerce.  See Bronder, Leonard D.
Taxation of Coal Mining;  Review with Recommendations.  Denver,
Colo.:  Western Governors' Regional Energy Policy Office, 1976.
                              348
-------
    TABLE 5-39:  PROJECTED TOTAL REVENUES FROM ALL SOURCES
                 (millions of 1975 dollars)
LOCATION
Reservation
County, Municipal
State
Total: All state and
local
1980
2.9
2.0
3.9
8.8
1985
9.0
4.6
17.2
30.8
1990
11.9
7.6
22.0
41.4
1995
11.9
8.9
24.6
45.4
2000
16.7
11.5
29.6
57.8
     The simplest comparison to be made involves state government.
A realistic assumption is that the state's costs will rise in
proportion to population.  These costs amounted to $621 per cap-
ita in fiscal 1973.1  Applying a scale-up for inflation and San
Juan County population growth, the following cumulative cost in-
crease is projected for the state:  $12.6 million in 1980, $28.8
million in 1985, $43.3 million in 1990, $51.1 million in 1995,
and $63.0 million in 2000.

     These figures suggest that new state expenditures will be
about twice as large as new revenues.  However, not all of the
county's new people will come from out of state.2  People who
move about within the state will not cause any appreciable change
in state government requirements.  Although very difficult to
forecast, at least half the new people should come from instate.
If this is the case, the state government will experience very
little net fiscal effect from these developments.  However, the
state, and its government, would grow in absolute size about 3
percent.

     Using basic data from a recent western planning study,3
capital costs for local government are estimated to be $2,360
per capita for county and municipal governments off the


     University of New Mexico,  Bureau of Business and Economic
Research.  New Mexico Statistical Abstract, 1975.  Albuquerque,
   Mex.
N.
University of New Mexico, 1975, p.  61.
     2This has been the case for workers on the San Juan Gener-
ating Plant project.  See Mountain West Research.  Construction
Worker Profile, Final Report.  Washington, D.C.:  Old West Re-
gional Commission, December 1975, pp. 8-17.

     3THK Associates, Inc.  Impact Analysis and Development Pat-
terns Related to an Oil Shale Industry;  Regional Development and
Land Use Study.  Denver, Colo.:  THK Associates, 1974, p. 30.
                              349
-------
   TABLE 5-40:
SUMMARY OF ADDITIONAL LOCAL GOVERNMENTAL
EXPENDITURES AND REVENUES, OFF-RESERVATION
(millions of 1975 dollars)
LOCATION
Expenditure
Capital3
Operating
Annual expenditure,
if no borrowing
Annual expenditure,
with borrowing
Revenue
1980

12.4
0.9

3.4
2.1
2.0
1985

17.3
2.1

5.6
4.9
4.6
1990

20.1
3.5

7.5
8.2
7.6
1995

8.8
4. 1

5.9
9.6
8.9
2000

18.2
5.4

9.0
12.6
11.5
    aTotal for 5-year period ending at specified date.

     Current operating costs paid "as you go" plus all
    previous capital costs amortized over 20 years at
    7-percent interest.
reservation.  Using New Mexico's average figures for local ex-
penditures, these governments will also need $166 per person per
year for operating costs.  Combining these data with the projected
population increases, additional local governmental expenditures
are shown in Table 5-40.   The previously tabulated revenue figures
are included for comparison.

     On a "pay as you go" basis of financing, local government
faces a negative fiscal impact (new expenditures exceeding new
revenues) until about 1990, after which the fiscal impact turns
positive.  In consideration of that long-term prospect, the
municipalities may decide to borrow the portion for capital ex-
penditures.  After taking interest costs into account, that
method is seen to result in slight but consistent deficits, grow-
ing to about $1.1 million per year by the end of the century.

     Finally, the federal government is more involved fiscally
in this scenario than in the others because of the large Indian
population.  Federal commitments undertake the expense and/or
administration of sanitation, health, education, and other func-
tions.  Moreover, the Department of Interior has a responsibility
to oversee mineral lease terms and other major action of the
Tribal Council.
                              350
-------
E.  Social and Cultural Impacts

     Changes in the Navajo culture and lifestyle may be consid-
erable during the next 25 years because of increased agricultural
activities as well as energy development.  Navajos traditionally
emphasize sharing and communal possession (as opposed to personal
ownership of property)  and harmony with nature and the land (as
opposed to modern agricultural and industrial activities).l   De-
velopment will result in challenges to these traditional atti-
tudes and values, and conflicts will probably develop between
the tribal government and locals.2  The Burnham chapter's rejec-
tion of the proposed gasification-coal mining operations in the
Burnham area is an example of this.3

     Most Navajos seem to dislike urban living.  For example, the
growth of Shiprock as a relatively major settlement on the res-
ervation occurred simultaneously with a large increase in drink-
ing, automobile accidents, and child abuse. "*  Energy development
is likely to bring even greater changes in family structures and
daily schedules than urbanization.  However, the availability of
job opportunities on the reservation should be favored by most
Navajos who prefer to work locally rather than off the reserva-
tion. 5
           practices of the Navajos seem to contradict this de-
scription; for example, overgrazing is common.

     2New Mexico State University, Department of Agricultural
Economics and Agricultural Business.  Socioeconomic Impact on
Rural Communities of Developing New Mexico's Coal Resources.
Las Cruces, N. Mex.:  New Mexico State University, 1975, pp. 217-
22; and Goodman, James M.  "Some Observations on the Navajo
Sense of Place."  Unpublished paper, University of Oklahoma,
Department of Geography, 1975; and Zickefoose, Paul W.  A Socio-
economic Analysis of the Impact of New Highway Construction in
the Shiprock Growth Center Area.  Las Cruces, N. Mex.:  New Mexico
State University, Center for Business Services, 1974, pp. 39-45.

     3New Mexico State University, Socioeconomic Impact on Rural
Communities, pp. 435-36.  This was hot a consensus decision.
However, it is indicative of a tribal split.

     4Zickefoose.  Impact of Highway Construction in Shiprock
Area.

     5Ruffing, Lorraine T.  "Navajo Economic Development Subject
to Cultural Constraints."  Economic Development and Cultural
Change, Vol. 24  (April 1976), pp. 611-21.

                               351
-------
     Some benefits from development are certain, such as increases
in income and purchasing power and the consequent capabilities
of Navajos to buy or build modern homes.   However, the increase
in the Navajo population in San Juan County is certain to take
place more rapidly than the provision of such things as medical
care, housing, and other social services.  The current gap be-
tween medical needs and available care, already a major problem
for the Navajos, will probably widen as population increases.
Roads, utilities, and retail establishments may also lag behind
the population growth.

     Quality-of-life effects on Farmington and the rest of the
county are expected to be minor in comparison with those on the
Navajo.  During the oil and gas boom in the 1950's, Farmington's
population grew more than 600 percent in 10 years.  The expected
rate of increase in coming years will be small by comparison.
Although rapid growth has resulted in some service lags, notably
in housing, Farmington's urban services and retail mix generally
make it a better environment for its residents than smaller towns
with the same problem but fewer amenities.

     As for health services, the San Juan County Hospital is
being expanded and remodeled to triple the 97-bed capacity (in-
cluding specialized beds)  of 1973.  Consequently, health care
should be less of a problem in the future.  Among western cities,
Farmington is well-equipped to handle the impacts of energy de-
velopments largely because of its size and infrastructure.  Typ-
ical boomtown problems are not as likely to occur in Farmington
as they are in smaller, less developed localities.

     Increases in both Indian and non-Indian populations within
the county will increase contact betewen the two groups.  Rela-
tions are likely to become strained, with increased conflict
between Indians and non-Indians and between the Tribal Council
and other governments.

F.  Political and Governmental Impacts

     As noted earlier, disagreements between the Navajo Tribal
Council, local chapters, and individuals regarding the level of
economic activitiy already exist.  These are likely to continue,
and perhaps even to intensify, as energy development becomes
more extensive.  For example, a confrontation over Navajo nego-
tiation rights may occur,  although the Navajos should be able to
resolve their differences with the federal government more easily
than some other tribes.

     Navajos will receive increased revenues from industrial
operations on their land,  but the specific quantities and sources
of those revenues depend on the tribe's priorities and the ex-
tent of the projects it pursues.  Existing royalty rates are to
be renegotiated by the Navajo Tax Commission because the tribe

                               352
-------
now believes that it did not receive fair treatment in the past.
New contracts negotiated with prospective developers will provide
more benefits to the tribes, not only in increased royalty rates
but in such areas as training and jobs for Navajos.

     In some ways the tribe's income needs are greater than those
of many local governments.  For example, road-building presents
a particular problem because the Tribal Council is not recognized
as a local government for various federal cost-sharing programs.1
On the other hand, the federal government directly provides some
services, such as health care.

     Participation in tribal affairs and government by local
Navajo chapters and individuals has increased with increased min-
ing and industrial development on the reservation.  Opposition
to Anglo developments on Navajo land and the Tribal Council's
nontraditional policies on such issues could have serious effects
on Navajo community spirit in the San Juan County area.  Contrasts
between the poor, traditional Burnham area and more modernized
Shiprock are great.  However, residents of both areas have opposed
non-Navajo exploitation of Navajo lands.2

     The increasing importance of Farmington as the center of
economic and other activities can be expected to continue.  Most
of the city's revenue comes from city-operated utilities, in-
cluding electricity, water, and solid waste treatment operations.
The city also benefits from growth outside boundaries because it
provides water to Shiprock and a number of unincorporated towns
in the Farmington/Shiprock corridor.  Property taxes are its
smallest source of revenue.  The sales tax and utility revenues
are likely to increase as the county's population increases.  How-
ever, major capital improvements will be needed for adequate de-
velopment of water and sewage systems.  Police and fire protec-
tion also need to be improved.3
     1U.S., Commission on Civil Rights.  The Navajo Nation:  An
American Colony.  Washington, D.C.:  Commission on Civil Rights,
T975, p. 19.

     2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Western Gasification Company (WESCO)  Coal Gasification Project
and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New
Mexico:  Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols.  Salt Lake City,
Utah:  Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976.

     3Real Estate Research Corporation.  Excess Cost Burden, Prob-
lems and Future Development in Three Energy Impacted Communities
of the West.  Washington, B.C.:  U.S., Department of the  Interior,
Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, pp. IV-4 to IV-13.


                               353
-------
     As noted in the population impact analysis, the demand for
housing in San Juan County will more than double by 1985, with
off-reservation needs greatest in Farmington and Aztec.  Assis-
tance for these and other communities, particularly during the
short term, will necessarily have to come from other levels of
go\ . nment.  Pressure will likely be exerted on the state to pro-
vide mechanisms which make more money available to traditional
lending institutions for home mortgage loans.  Although New Mexico
presently does not have an administrative division of housing to
administer fiscal programs to assist in the development of low
or moderate income housing in rural areas, the state does provide
limited aid through other state agencies.1  Rapid energy develop-
ment in the area may cause expansion of these administrative ac-
tivities since eligibility for funds from the federal government's
"Community Development Block Grant Program" requires that a hous-
ing plan for assisting low- or moderate-income persons must be
implemented by states requesting such assistance.  The state also
has a housing finance agency, the Mortgage Finance Agency, whose
purpose is to assist in securing mortgage funds for traditional
lending institutions.

     Due to the lack of a comprehensive countywide zoning plan,
certain types of strip development in the San Juan Valley west
of Farmington along U.S. 550 and on other limited private lands
in the county are expected to continue.2  Mobile homes, in par-
ticular, are likely to proliferate in the area, both on and off
the reservation lands.  Such development could result in unde-
sirable impacts since the state does not now provide design cri-
teria or standards for mobile home parks  (except indirectly
through health codes).  Even if more effectively planned, the
development of large parks for mobile homes  (especially in remote
areas) can lead to problems for local and county governments with
regard to their ability to provide essential public services,
regulate activities, control land use, and enforce regulations
and standards.  The state recently reported problems of enforce-
ment of solid waste rules and regulations, indicating this was
primarily because small communities lacked the necessary capital
     aRapp, Donald A.  Western Boomtowns, Part I, Amended:  A
Comparative Analysis of State Actions, Special Report to the
Governors.  Denver, Colo.:  Western Governors' Regional Energy
Policy Office, 1976, pp. 20-22.

     2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation,
Western Gasification Company (WESCQ) Coal Gasification Project
and Expansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New
Mexico:  Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols.  Salt Lake City,
Utah:  Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976, p. 3-84

                              354
-------
for implementing required technologies and because of a signifi-
cant lack of funds at the state level.l

5.4.5  Summary of Social and Economic Impacts

     Manpower requirements and the tax rates associated with en-
ergy facilities are major determinants of social and economic
impacts.   For the mines, manpower requirements for operation
exceed peak construction manpower requirements.  However, the
reverse is true for the conversion facilities; i.e., more labor
is required for construction than for operation.  In combination,
requirements for each coal mine-conversion facility increase
from the first year when construction begins, peak, and then de-
cline as construction activity ceases.  Total manpower required
for operation of the Synthoil facility and its associated mine
is more than three times that of other coal mine-plant combina-
tions.

     A property tax, sales tax, royalty payments on Indian owned
coal, and an energy conversion tax generate revenue for the local
and state governments.  Capital costs of the coal conversion
facilities and mines hypothesized for the Farmington scenario
range from about 1,125  (mine-gasification plant facility) to 2,100
(mine-Synthoil plant facility) millions of 1975 dollars.  A sales
tax of 4 percent is levied on the materials and equipment pur-
chased in constructing each facility.  However, no property tax
is collected from facilities located on Indian reservations.  Roy-
alty payments are about 12,5 percent of the value of federally
owned coal, of which 50 percent is returned to state and local
government.  However, all royalties for coal on Indian reserva-
tions are retained by the tribe.  In New Mexico, an energy con-
version tax is levied on the power plant at a rate of 0.4 mill
per kWh.

     If all of the energy facilities hypothesized are constructed,
the 1975 population of San Juan County will more than double be-
cause of both the energy and agricultural development proposed
in the Navajo/Farmington scenario.  The largest increases are ex-
pected among the Navajo in the reservation portion of the county.
The urban areas of the county  (such as Farmington, Aztec, Ship-
rock, and a new town near Burnham) will attract much of the new
population.  Most of the secondary employment growth will be in
Farmington, bringing its population to about 50,000 by the year
2000.  The largest increases in the demand for housing and schools
will also be on the Navajo Reservation.
     TRapp, Donald A.  Western Boomtowns, Part I, Amended:  A
Comparative Analysis of State Actions~Special Report to the Gov-
ernors.  Denver, Colo.:  Western Governors' Regional Energy Policy
Office, 1976, p. 28.


                               355
-------
     As employment opportunities and incomes improve,  the  life--
style of many Navajos will generally change from a dispersed
rural existence to a more settled and affluent one .  The current
rural distribution represents the highest rural population  dc-n--
sity in the nation.  New provisions for modern housing with plumb-
ing and kitchens will greatly affect the Navajo quality of  lift-:,
and this is a major impetus for Navajo support of  the  concept •>!"
a new town in the Burnham area.1

     Public services, especially health car^ f wat-_:r,  and  sewc>::..,?
will be among the greatest needs ooth on and o:.f rhe-  i ese rvat i o-i ,
Coordination between the tribe, local Anglo governmorrcs , and  t tic-
federal aovernment will become important within the county  so
that Ihe quality of growth can be controlle d .  Th;-1 M. iiv-  i:.,:,*1-:,'
must derive virtually all its new revenues f^oin coa]  i
The above analysis has shown that a royalty rate of :3r
ton would ultimately provide net surpluses of more than $10 mi I
lion per year.  However, deficits may be experienced  as late-  ,-.,.-.
1982.  Local Anglo governments similarly can expect; surpluses
eventually (late 1980 's) but deficits in the short run,.
5.5.1  Introduction

     The area considered for ecological  impacts  in  the  Navajo/
Farmington scenario is bounded on the west by  the Utah  and Arizona
borders and on the north by the San Juan National Forest.   The
study area extends eastward as far as the Chama  River and  south-
ward to the Chaco Canyon.3  Elevations range from 5,000 feet over
much of the desert to 9,000 feet in the  mountain areas.

     Energy development at Navajo/Farmington will take  place in
a desert environment.  As noted earlier, the average annual rain-
fall is 6-8 inches in most of the area and up  to 10 inches at
higher elevations.  Limited precipitation, coupled  with excessive
grazing are the major factors controlling the  composition  and
productivity of the terrestrial ecosystem.
     aMorrison-Knudsen Company.  Navajo New  Town  Feasibility
Overview.  Boise, Idaho:  Morrison-Knudsen,  19-75.

     2Some net income should be derived from the  irrigation pro-
ject, but this cannot be estimated at present.
     3This area includes most of the present  and potential iriflu-
CIK-CO of human populations  living  in the  Farmington  area and en-
compasses the ranges of migratory  game  animals.
ences
                               356
-------
5,5,2  Existing Biological Conditions

     The coal fields being developed at Navajo/Farmington lie in
a broad expanse of desert.  Table 5-41 summarizes plants and ani-
mals characteristic of the biological communities found in the
scenario area.  Vegetation south of the San Juan River is very
sparse desert grass and shrubland, with species composition re-
flecting the slight saltiness of much of the soil.  Indian.and
non-Indian ranchers are a major influence of this ecosystem.  For
exciiiipi'^, live-stock grazing on the Navajo Reservation has removed
most of the plant cover, and much, of the topsoil has been carried
away by erosion.

     The scarcity of water in the area also limits animal popula-
tion.  The fauna is typified by a variety of desert-adapted ro-
dents, lizards, and songbirds.   Several birds of prey are found
in the area.  Foxes, coyotes, and badgers constitute the bulk of
the mammalian predators.  Except for small numbers of antelope
using the more productive grass and shrublands northeast of Farm-
ington, there are few game animals in the area.  Rare or endan-
gered species include the peregrine falcon, bald eagle, and
black-footed ferret.

     The desert is bounded on the north by irrigated croplands,
natural marshlands, and riparian woods found in the San Juan
River floodplain.  In addition to a relatively diverse and abun-
dant assemblage of mammals and reptiles, this zone of well-watered
vegetation supports a wide variety of birds, both resident and
migratory.  For example, the waterfowl habitat of the San Juan
Valley is of regional significance.2

     The foothills to the north and east are pinyon-juniper wood-
land with some scrub oak and a variety of grasses and forbs.
Greater rainfall in these areas makes the foothills more produc-
tive than the desert grass and shrublands.  Consequently, the
fauna is more diverse and abundant there, especially the bird
life, which finds a broad spectrum of food and habitats within
this type of vegetation.  These foothills are also important
areas for deer, especially in winter.

     Above the pinyon-juniper zone and more distant from Farming-
ton lie coniferous forests consisting primarily of ponderosa pine


     xThe San Juan Valley lies in the Central Flyway and provides
habitat for winter migratory waterfowl and spring breeding popu-
lations .

     2U.S., Department of the Interior, Southwest Energy Federal
Task Force.  Southwest Energy Study, Appendix H:  Report of the
Biota Work Group.  Springfield, Va.:  National Technical Infor-
mation Service, 1972, PB-232 104, pp. 26-30.

                               357
-------
    TABLE 5-41:
SELECTED COMPONENTS OF MAIN COMMUNITIES,
NAVAJO/FARMINGTON SCENARIO
   COMMUNITY
     TYPE
    CHARACTERISTIC
       PLANTS
    CHARACTERISTIC
       ANIMALS
Desert
Grassland-Shrub
  Blue grama
  Galleta grass
  Indian ricegrass
  Alkali scaton
  Russian thistle
  Shadscale
  Mormon tea
Ord's kangaroo rat
Silky pocket mouse
Spotted ground squirrel
Whitetailed prairie dog
Collared lizard
Horned lark
Coyote
Antelope
Pinyon-Juniper
Woodland
  Pinyon pine
  Utah juniper
  Curl-leaf mountain
    mahogany
  Cliff rose
  Gambel oak
Barbary sheep
Mule deer
Cliff chipmunk
Pinyon mouse
Gambel's quail
Pinyon jay
Riparian
  Indian ricegrass
  Rabbitbrush
  Tamarisk
  Willows
  Cottonwood
  Elm
House mouse
Western harvest mouse
Porcupine
Desert cottontail
Red fox
Great blue heron
Mule deer
Midelevation
Conifer Forests
  Ponderosa pine
  Blue spruce
  Douglas fir
  Aspen
  Moutain maple
  Alder
  Oceanspray
  Gambel oak
Mule deer
Elk
Turkey
Chickadee
Cooper's hawk
Band-tailed pigeon
Pigmy nuthatch
Subalpine
Conifer Forests
  Corkbark fir
  Subalpine fir
  Engelmann spruce
  Aspen
  Mountain maple
  Box myrtle
  Snowberry
Mule deer
Elk
Mountain goat
Bighorn sheep
Beaver
Marmot
Marten
Blue grouse
Gray jay
                             358
-------
and Douglas fir.  This vegetation supports a diverse fauna dis-
tinct from that of the pinyon-juniper zone.  For example, beaver
inhabit most of the mountain streams, and bald eagles winter in
this area.  Game animals include turkey, as well as deer and elk
during the winter.

      The highest forest type is dominated by corkbark fir and
Engelmann spruce.  Alpine meadows occur above the timberline.
Big game animals use these high forests and meadows as summer
range.

      The quality of the aquatic habitat in the San Juan River is
influenced by the Navajo Reservoir, constructed in 1962, which is
located about 45 miles upstream from Farmington.  Cold water dis-
charged from the lower layers of the reservoir controls stream
conditions 15-18 miles below the dam.:  Beyond this distance the
river assumes a more typical desert character, becoming warmer
and silty.  The colder waters support a trout fishery, and a lim-
ited warm-water fishery is located near Farmington.  Below Farm-
ington, many nongame fish occur; however, the water is too turbid
for game fish.  Other streams in the area are primarily inter-
mittent; and while they support short-lived invertebrate and plant
populations, they probably do not contain fish.

      The mineral cycles of arid desert land in San Juan County
are "slowed down" relative to many temperate grasslands and for-
ests.  Nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus are confined to
the upper soil layers, due to limited leaching, and this may
separate them from the plant roots.2  Also microbial decomposition
of litter and wood is limited to the short periods of adequate
soil moisture following rainstorms.3  However, the principal factor
      :U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
El Paso Coal Gasification Project, New Mexico:  Draft Environ-
mental Statement.  Salt Lake City, Utah:  Bureau of Reclamation,
Upper Colorado Region, 1974, p. 2-84.

      2See Jurinak, J.J., and R.A. Griffin.  Factors Affecting the
Movement and Distribution of Anions in Desert Soils, US/IBP Desert
Biome Research Memo 72-38, 1972.  Skujing, J.  Nitrogen Dynamics
in Desert Soils; I, Nitrification, US/IBP Desert Biome Research
Memo 72-40, 1972.

      3Tiedeman, A.R., and J.O. Klemmedson.  "Nutrient Availabil-
ity in Desert Grassland Soils Under Mesquite  (Prosopis juliflora)
Trees and Adjacent Open Areas."  Soil Science Society of America
Proceedings, Vol. 37 (January-February 1973), pp.107-11.

                               359
-------
limiting vegetative production is usually moisture rather than
nutrients.1

5.5.3  Factors Producing Impacts

     Four factors associated with construction and operation of
the scenario facilities (a power plant, Lurgi plant, Synthane
plant, Synthoil plant, uranium mill, and their associated mines)
can cause ecological impacts:  land use, population increases,
water use and water pollution, and air quality changes.  With
the exception of. land use, the quantities of each of these fac-
tors associated with each facility were given in previous sec-
tions of 'this chapter.  Land-use quantities are given in this
section, and the others are summarized.

     Land use by each of the facilities proposed for the Farming-
ton area is given in Table 5-42.  Acres used during the lifetime
(30 years) of each coal facility range from 11,605  (gasification
plant-mine combination) to 27,300 (power plant-mine combination).
By comparison, the uranium mine-mill requires only 350 acres.
Land use by NIIP, a large nonenergy development which began op-
eration in 1976, will affect the ecosystems in the scenario area.2
Following the initial phase, the NIIP will add about 10,000 acres
to the system each year until it reaches its planned limit of
96,630 acres in 1986.

     Manpower required for construction and operation of the fa-
cilities is expected to cause an increase in urban population.
Peak manpower required for construction of the facilities is
     *The production of vegetation is low.  The gross primary
productivity of the several vegetation types found in the area
is estimated to be about 1.7xl06 kilocalories per hectare per
year, which is almost an order of magnitude less than productiv-
ity at the other scenario locations (except for Kaiparowits) of
this study.  Productivity is chiefly limited by rainfall, and
coverage values for the sparse vegetation range from about 5 to
20 percent.

     2The system will consist of a main open canal and three
laterals, with water delivered to the fields by sprinkler sys-
tems.  Possible crops are corn and sugar beets, and several
crops a year are feasible.  The Animas-La Plata Project, a Bureau
of Reclamation program of reservoirs and irrigated agriculture
in two river valleys, is roughly one-seventh the size of the
NIIP and will use Animas River water,  which will be returned to
the San Juan through the La Plata River.

                               360
-------
         TABLE 5-42:  LAND USE BY SCENARIO FACILITIES21


FACILITY
Conversion Facilities
Power Plant (3,000 MWe)
Lurgi or Synthane Gasification
Plant (250 MMcfd)
Synthoil Plant (100,000 bbl/day)
Uranium Mill (1,000 mtpy)
Associated Mines
For Power Plant (12.2 MMtpy)
For Lurgi Plant (7.3 MMtpy)
For Synthane Plant (6.6 MMtpy)
For Synthoil Plant (12.2 MMtpy)
Uranium Underground Mine (1,100 mtpd)
LAND USE
ACRES PER
YEAR







830
360
360
660
NA
ACRES PER
30 YEARS

2,400

805
2,060
280

24,900
10,800
10,800
19,800
70
MWe = megawatt-electric
MMcfd = million cubic feet
        per day
bbl/day = barrels per day
mtpy = metric tons per year
MMtpy = million tons per year
mtpd = metric tons per day
NA = not applicable
aThe land used by the coal mines will increase every year by
the amount given in the table for 30 years, the life-time of
the facilities.  However, the land occupied by a conversion
facility or by the underground uranium mine will not vary after
construction of the project.
about 2,800 for the power plant and mine, about 5,000 for each
of the other coal facilities, and about 230 for the uranium fa-
cility.  After the facilities are constructed, manpower required
for operation of the power, Lurgi, and Synthane plant and mine
combinations is about 1,000 each, for the Synthoil plant and
mine, over 3,000, and for the uranium mine and mill, about 1,100.

     The water requirement for the power plant (about 29,000 acre-
ft/yr assuming high wet cooling and 75 percent load factor)  is
significantly greater than that required by the synthetic fuels
plants or by the uranium facility.  Of the coal facilities the
Lurgi plant requires the smallest water quantity—about 7,128
acre-ft/yr (assuming high wet cooling and 90 percent load factor),
                              361
-------
The uranium mine and mill will require about 1,350 acre-ft/yr.
Water will be withdrawn from the San Juan River to meet the water
requirements of the facilities.  Wastewater from the facilities
directed to ponds or treatment facilities will contribute con-
taminants to surface and groundwater only as evaporative ponds
leak or erode.

     The annual ambient air concentrations of S02 will range from
0.3 (Lurgi gasification plant-mine combinations)  to 3.3 (Synthoil
and power plant-mine combinations) yg/m3.   Peak concentrations
from the Synthoil plant will violate New Mexico's ambient air
standard for HC by more than 130 times.

5.5.4  Impacts

     The nature of the ecological impacts caused by these factors
depends on the plant and animal community type on which they are
imposed.  For example, the impact of land use depends on whether
desert shrub, riparian, or pinyon-juniper communities are being
used.  Some of the land-use trends are now evident or could occur
regardless of energy-related growth.  A scenario, which calls for
power, Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil plants, a uranium mill,
and their associated mines to be developed according to a speci-
fied time schedule (see Table 5-1),  is used here as the vehicle
through which the extent of the impacts is explored.  Impacts
caused by land use, population increases,  water use and water
pollution, and by air quality changes are discussed for each
time period.

A. To 1980

     Most of the early impacts of the scenario will be a conse-
quence of construction activities.  At the same time, expansion
of the NIIP will begin modifying the ecological baseline.  Table
5-43 shows the expected land use by the proposed energy facil-
ities, urban population, and NIIP in San Juan County.  By 1980,
the NIIP will use 30,000 acres (0.9  percent of the land in San
Juan County); the urban population will require 5,142 acres  (0.15
percent).  The Lurgi facility will be the only facility operating
by 1980 and will use 1,165 acres or 0.03 percent of the land in
San Juan County.  These lands are currently used for grazing,
primarily by sheep.  An average of 365 acres of forage is re-
quired to support one cow with calf or five sheep per year  (based
on the BIA's recommended stocking rates).1  Table 5-44 gives the


     ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Western Gasification Company Coal Gasification Project and Ex-
pansion of Navajo Mine by Utah International Inc., New MexicoT
Final Environmental Statement, 2 vols.  Salt Lake City, Utah:
Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 1976, p. 2-131.
                              362
-------
   TABLE  5-43:
LAND  USE  IN  FARMINGTON SCENARIO AREA
(in acres)a

By Energy Facilities
Conversion Facilities
Power Plant (3,000 MWe)
Lurgi Plant (250 MMcfd)
Synthane Plant (250 MMcfd)
Synthoil Plant
(100,000 bbl/day)
Uranium Mill (1,000 mtpy)
Mines
Power Plant (12.2 MMtpy)
Lurgi Plant (7.3 MMtpy)
Synthane Plant (6.6 MMtpy)
Synthoil Plant (12.2 MMtpy)
Underground Uranium Mine (1,100 mtpd)
Subtotal
By Urban Population
Indian Reservations
Residential
Streets
Commercial
Public and Community Facilities
Industry
Subtotal
Nonreservation
Residential
Streets
Commercial
Public and Community Facilities
Industry
Subtotal
Subtotal
Total Land Use
Land Use for NIIP
1975

















1,250
250
30
78
125
1,733

1,835
367
44
114
184
2,544
4,277
4 ,277

1980



805






360



1,165


1,645
1990


2,400
805
805


280

4,980
3,960
360

70
13,660


2,535
329 | 507
40
102
164
2,280

2,065
413
50
128
206
2,862
5,142
6,307
30,000
61
157
254
3,513

2,495
499
60
155
250
3,459
6,973
20,633
96,630
2000


2,400'
805
80S

2,060
280

13,280
7,560
3,960
660
70
31,880


3,545
709
85
220
354
4,913

2,725
545
65
169
272
3,776
8,689
40,564
96,630
Total Land in San Juan County 3,523,840
Indian Reservations 2, 114 J 304
Nonreservation 1,409,536
MWe = megawatt-electric
MMcfd = million  cubic  feet per day
bbl/day = barrels  per  day
mtpy = metric tons per year
                     MMtpy = million  tons per year
                     mtpd = metric  tons  per day
                     NIIP = Navajo  Indian Irrigation
                            Project
 Values in each  column  are cumulative for year given.

 Acres used by the  urban population were calculated using population esti-
mates in Table 5-32  for San Juan County assuming:   residential  land =  50
acres per 1,000  population; streets = 10 acres per 1,000 population; com-
mercial land =1.2  acres per 1,000 population; public  and community facil-
ities = 3.1 acres per 1,000 population; and industry = 5 acres  per 1,000
population.  Adapted from THK Associates, Inc.  Impact Analysis and Devel-
opment Patterns  Related to an Oil Shale Industry:   Regional Development
Land Use Study.  Denver, Colo.:  THK Associates, 1974.
                                   363
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-------
number of animals  (using  the  present  64-36  ratio of sheep to cows
in San Juan County1)  foregone because of  land used by the energy
facilities and urban  population.   The acres lost by 1980 would
support  L4 cows with  calves and  24 sheep  (Table 5-44).   Because
actual Navajo stocking rates  are  often three times the  recommended
rate, the forage lost could support up to 42 cows with  calves and
72 sheep,

     Imparts on wildlife  at the  Lnrgi construction site will be
,'x -lipa/'at i>eLy minor.  The  larcj^i ,  more mobile animals,  such as
b'-Tqe-'S  and horned  Larks,  will be driven  away by tho activity.
'"[any af  t.tie smaller species with  restricted movement, patterns,
such as  the pocket mouse  or kangaroo  rat. will be killed directly.
:Y •"  • he  rnnst part, the species affected are widespread  throughout
ti'.'-•  >-'ntiL-^ desert, and the habitat, affected by construction ac-
;:.; :!.'-.'/  i.s .'i^ir.hor anjquo  nor  distinctive.   The cliffs along the
:,J>,jc  s Riv-.--!-:, however, constitute  important  nestinq habitat, for
th.:  .'urea's birds of prey,  particularly the  golden eagle and red-
t  a.i 1  hawk.  The water line feeding the Lurgi plant will be con-
structed a Long the rim of  the Chaco Wash, causing birds of prey
to abandon their nests if  the disturbance coincides with the
nesting  period.  Once the  water  line  is in  place, some  of the
birds could be expected to return,  but original nesting density
wcuid j.iro!>ably not be restored.

     The population of San Juan  County by 1980 is expected to be
82,700,  up 30 percent.  Increases in  poaching of game animals and
shooting of riongame species have  been observed widely throughout
the western states during  periods of  construction and mineral
exploration.  Poaching in  northern New Mexico is already extensive,
in some  places equalling  legal kill levels  (according to a recent
study in the Guadalupe Mountains  by the New Mexico Department
of Game  and Fish).2  Antelope and deer are  the species  most
likely to suffer from extensive poaching.   The nesting  birds
     1U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau  of  the  Census.   19 74
Census of Agriculture; Preliminary Report,  San Juan  County,  New
Mexico.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office,  1976.

     2Poaching differs from legal hunting in its impact  on game
populations by being indiscriminate with respect to  age,  sex,
and season.  By removing pregnant females and  nonbreeding  young,
it can exert a significant impact on  the ability of  the  popula-
tion to maintain an adequate base of  breeding  adults.  Poaching
not only harms game populations directly, it reduces the  number
of surplus animals which may be legally taken.   Without  license
revenues, management and patrol programs designed  to protect the
herds are difficult to finance.  The  New Mexico Department of
Game and Fish views poaching as one of their most  significant
problems.


                              365
-------
of prey in the Chaco Wash are especially vulnerable to shooting
as a consequence of waterline construction.

     Water use, water pollution, and air quality changes associ-
ated with energy development will not cause significant impacts
by 1980.

B.  To 1990

     The NIIP will be completed by 1986 and the power, Lurgi,  and
Synthane plants and associated mines will be in operation by 1990.

     By 1990, land used by the NIIP will by 96,630 acres (2.7
percent of the land in San Juan County), by the energy facilities,
13,660 acres  (0.4 percent), and by the urban population, 6,973
acres (0.2 percent).  Loss of grazing lands will have agricul-
tural impacts.  The amount of land used by the energy facilities
and urban population would support 45 cows with calves and 79
sheep according to the BIA recommended stocking rate.  However,
this is one-third of the actual stocking rate practiced (Table
5-44).   Total acres used by the NIIP would support 212 CQWS with
calves and 375 sheep (according to BIA stocking rates, Table
5-44).   This total is 0.9 percent of the 1974 inventory of cows
and sheep in San Juan County.1

     The expansion of irrigated agriculture during this period
will begin to establish a trend toward replacement of the desert
fauna with species typical of agricultural areas.  The limiting
factors will become the availability of food and cover.  Water-
fowl may benefit from the habitat provided by surface canals ad-
jacent to croplands, especially where grains are grown.  Desert
rodent species may be replaced by those commonly associated with
croplands and which consequently have a higher probability of
contact with man.  Plague is endemic in northwest New Mexico,  and
as human and rodent populations grow, the probability of cases of
human plague may increase.

     Actual habitat disruption by the facilities is, as indicated
above, of minimal ecological significance in San Juan County.
However, the increased population, which will exceed 13"0,000
by 1990 (more than twice the 1975 population), will have signif-
icant ecological impacts.  Game poaching and illegal shooting of
nongame is expected to increase as population increases, which
     1U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census.  1974 Cen-
sus of Agriculture; Preliminary Report, San Juan County, New
Mexico.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1976.

                              366
-------
would cause noticeable declines in wildlife populations by 1990.
The most vulnerable big game populations are the deer  (Deer Man-
agement Area 10) and the antelope located in the foothills south-
east of Farmington.  The declining deer populations are nonmigra-
tory and their range is particularly accessible by vehicle on oil
and gas exploration trails.  The antelope herd is already declin-
ing due to harrassment and illegal harvest, and could be virtually
eliminated by 1990.  Furthermore, the demand for legitimate hunt-
ing, especially for big game, will also increase as construction-
related populations grow.  Hunting pressure on deer is already
high especially in the foothills near Farmington.  Between 1970
and 1973, hunters using Deer Management Area 10  (which includes
almost all the New Mexico deer habitat in this scenario)  increased
from 8,159 to 12,600.  Concurrently, hunter success dropped from
24.9 percent to 11.4 percent.

     Game animals on Navajo lands are subject to shooting that is
controlled more by Indian social custom than by state laws and
management.  Game populations suffer from year-round or uncon-
trolled harvest, as well as from habitat destruction by heavy graz-
ing from domestic animals.  Changes in wildlife use on reservation
lands from new Indian towns or changed population distributions
are not expected.

     The impact of the scenario in increased demand for backcoun-
try types of recreation will begin to be felt by 1990.  Initially,
much of this demand will focus on the San Juan Mountains, partic-
ularly the newly designated.San Juan Wilderness area and the ad-
jacent Rio Grande Wilderness.  The San Juan Forest staff has in-
dicated that use permits may be used in order to limit access in
4-5 years.  With demand for recreational areas, adjacent foothills
and midelevation forests will be used to a greater degree.1  Vege-
tation along stream banks, lakes, and in meadows at high altitudes
may deteriorate due to the effects of camping, horses, and foot
traffic.2  Other impacts might include:  the disturbance and
     foothill lands controlled by the Ute Mountain and Southern
Ute Reservations are, however, essentially closed to dispersed
recreation by tribal attitude and policy.  Most of the recreational
pressure from the Farmington area is likely to concentrate in the
foothills of the San Juan National Forest in Colorado and in the
highlands east of Farmington, including the Carson National Forest.

     2For example, the San Juan National Forest presently has rules
restricting camping within a specified distance of certain high-
altitude lakes and streams.  High meadows are summer range for
both deer and elk, and support distinctive populations of small
vertebrates and insects of both scientific and aesthetic interest.
Delicate alpine flora can be greatly reduced in diversity or de-
stroyed after a few years of trampling.

                               367
-------
subsequent redistribution of elk, especially on calving grounds;
fragmentation of key deer ranges by recreational development on
private lands;1 harrassment of deer and other wildlife by heavy
off-road vehicle (ORV)  use in the hills east of Farmington, espe-
cially in winter;2 and local erosion.

     Expanding urban development will  also begin to produce notice-
able impacts by 1990.  Strip development along the San Juan River
will fragment riparian habitat.  While some species of ducks,
shorebirds, and songbirds will lose some habitat due to this de-
velopment, the loss will be compensated for, in part, by the NIIP.
Species such as the great blue heron,  which depend heavily on fish
and other aquatic fauna, may decline.   Wild dogs, already a prob-
lem, will increase in numbers and disturb deer wintering in the
uplands adjacent to the San Juan River or in the valley itself.
Finally, heavy ORV use within roughly  20 miles of concentrations
of human populations will deteriorate  some terrain.  Even without
development of a new town at Burnham,  some clustering of dwellings
in the area may be expected because of its location relative to
the NIIP and the energy developments.

     Water requirements for the scenario facilities and munici-
palities will be met with water from the San Juan River.  Water
withdrawals may result in high concentrations of salt and sus-
pended solids in the river.  During construction of the facilities,
runoff may also contaminate surface water.  Groundwater may be
contaminated by weathering and leaching of mine wastes and ash
deposited in mined-out areas.

     Effluents from the facilities will be ponded and are not ex-
pected to contaminate water.  However, the increased effluents
from the municipalities will require updated sewage treatment fa-
cilities.  Difficulties in procuring funds for adequately updating
municipal sewage facilities may result in the direct discharge of
most of the treated sewage generated by the growing urban popula-
tions by 1990.  Especially during late-summer periods of low flow,
the added nutrients and biochemical oxygen demand carried in sew-
age treatment effluent, coupled with agricultural runoff, could
cause serious problems of algal growth and lowered dissolved oxygen
     1 This could be particularly significant west of Durango, par-
allel to U.S. 160 from Durango to Cortez, and in the Animas River
valley below the Purgatory ski area.  However, Colorado's land-use
laws provide for county approval of such development, which may
afford a measure of control.

     2Assuming a total of 28,000 new families by 1990 and one ORV
for each four families yields an estimate of 7,000 such vehicles.
By 2000, the total is 8,750.  These could exert very significant
impacts on nearby foothill habitats if uncontrolled.


                               368
-------
in the river from Farmington to below Shiprock.  If treatment fa-
cilities are improved during the second half of the decade these
effects will diminish.

     The four facilities operating by 1990 are sited far enough
apart so that interaction of air pollutants from each will not be
significant.  Peak concentrations from the power plant-mine com-
bination will violate New Mexico's 24-hour NOa ambient air stan-
dard.  Pollution due to Farmington's predicted population increase
will violate New Mexico's 3-hour HC standards.  The HC violation,
which will exceed New Mexico's standard by a factor of five, ap-
pears the most severe because it increases the likelihood of oxi-
dant formation and photochemical smog.  Although the uncertainty
is high, expected ambient air concentrations of criteria pollu-
tants are not expected to cause chronic or acute damage to eco-
logical communities.

C.  To 2000

     By 2000, all five of the scenario facilities will be operat-
ing.  Continued expansion of the coal mines from 1990-2000 plus
construction of the Synthoil facility will use additional land.
Land use by 2000 by the facilities and urban population will be
40,560 acres or 1.1 percent of the land in San Juan County (Table
5-43).  The forage produced on this acreage would support 88 cows
with calves and 156 sheep per year (according to the BIA stocking
rate, which is one-third of the actual stocking rate, Table 5-44).

     Population in San Juan County will increase to 146,300, a
134 percent increase over the 1975 population.  The increased
population will exacerbate the ecological impacts described above
associated with game poaching, illegal and legal hunting, recre-
ation activities, and urban development.

     Local changes in the mineral cycles at Farmington are likely
to occur in two major categories:  physical changes in nutrient
pools, and changes in the biological sector of the nutrient cycles.
Physical changes will be due primarily to erosion (particularly
from the wind)  of surface soil and litter.  These impacts will
arise from construction, livestock overgrazing, recreational
activities  (especially ORV use), and surface mining.  Another
physical change will be the minimization of stream flow varia-
tions as a result of the operational practices of the Navajo
Reservoir.  This will reduce the deposition of soil in riparian
habitats which now occurs following high-flow periods.

     In general, water impacts associated with the scenario fa-
cilities and urban population by 2000 will be qualitatively simi-
lar to, but more intense than, 1990 impacts.  The impact of bio-
logical changes in the mineral cycles though vegetation loss will
be limited spatially because the desert is divided into "micro-
watersheds" with an individual shrub at the center of each small

                               369
-------
catchment area. l   Changes from energy development will operate on
the level of the individual microwatersheds rather than on some
larger unit such as a stream watershed or plant community.  By
the year 2000, the withdrawal of water from the San Juan Basin
will have risen to 226,000 acre-ft/yr for the NIIP, 66,400 acre-
ft/yr for the new energy facilities,2 and about 15,350 acre-ft/yr
of additional water for the increased population.  Most of this
water will be diverted directly from the Navajo Reservoir. 3  By
2000, the Navajo Reservoir, which is currently drawn down about
45 feet per year, will be drawn down 95 feet per year to meet the
water requirements for the NIIP, energy facilities, and increased
urban population.  The impacts of these water withdrawals on the
reservoir will be minor.  Game fish populations now in the reser-
voir are expected to continue to reproduce, although shallow water
habitat important to spawning and juvenile survival will be sea-
sonally reduced as the lake level drops.   Algae and aquatic macro-
phytes, if fluctuating lake levels allow their growth, will be
stranded along the shoreline as the water recedes.  After they
have decayed and the lake level again rises, a decrease in dis-
solved oxygen could occur in areas where vegetative growth is
permitted.

     The net effect of the withdrawals may be a decrease in flows
of cold water downstream.  Although the storage project maintains
a minimum flow of 400 cubic feet per second (cfs) for downstream
use, lowering of potential flows closer to this minimum will have
few beneficial, and many adverse, consequences, including:  limit-
ing the already excellent cold water fishery for rainbow and brown
trout below Navajo Reservoir; some deposition of silt and sand
bars downstream which will reduce the stability of bottom habitats,
including fish spawning and nesting sites; warming of waters and
reduction of total amount of aquatic habitat in areas of depleted
           for example, Stark, N.   Distillation—Condensation of
Water and Nutrient Movement in a Desert Ecosystem, US/IBP Desert
Biome Research Memo 73-44, 1973; Charley, J.L.   "The Role of
Shrubs in Nutrient Cycling," in McKell, C.M. ,  J.P. Blaisdell,
and J.R. Goodin ,  eds .   Wildland Shrubs — Their Biology and Utili-
zation, USDA Forest Service General Technical Report INT-1.
Ogden , Utah:  U.S., Department of Agriculture,  Forest Service,
Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 1972; Garcia-
Moya, E., and C.M. McKell.  "Contribution of Shrubs to the Nitro
gen Economy of a Desert-Wash Plant Community."   Ecology, Vol. 51
(Winter 1970), pp. 81-87.

     2Assuming high wet cooling for the scenario facilities oper
ating at the expected load factor (Table 5-17)  and including the
water used for mine reclamation (Table 5-18) .

     3U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation,
Farmington, New Mexico.  Personal Communication, January 1977.

                               370
-------
flow  (effects of flow reduction will be much more significant
than  increase in dissolved solids); and reduction in marsh vege-
tation within the floodplain, reducing waterfowl nesting habitat.

     About 209 cfs will be annually returned to the San Juan
River above Shiprock at Chaco Wash from seasonal irrigation run-
off and artificial aquifers created by the NIIP.  This return will
contain high TDS concentrations and quantities of pesticides and
fertilizers.  Though base flows at Navajo Dam should maintain
flow  at Shiprock, the dilution of this irrigation return could
become critical to water quality at and below Shiprock during
periods of low flow.l  The ability of the river to dilute the
concentrated irrigation runoff could be enhanced by almost 20
percent through the use of once-through cooling processes at the
energy facilities.2

     Wastewater impounded at the four plant sites could attract
desert animals and waterfowl.  The impact of these wastewaters on
wildlife is dependent on accessibility and their composition.  The
wastes of the coal conversion plants are of particular interest
because they may contain various organic compounds known or sus-
pected to be carcinogenic (see Chapter 10).  Evaporation ponds
are likely to contain high concentrations of chemicals and be un-
palatable and odoriferous.  In addition, sublethal or chronic ef-
fects would probably not affect a sufficient number of animals to
be significant on a regional scale.

      As reported previously in the air impact analysis, ground
level SO2 and N02 concentrations from the proposed facilities
will generally be at least an order of magnitude below the federal
standards even under the worst conditions.  However, New Mexico's
ambient air standard for 24-hour N02 will be violated by the power
plant facility.  The Synthoil facility will violate New Mexico's
ambient HC air standard by more than 130 times.   Concentrations
of S02 and NO2 over most croplands will be much lower than in the
facility vicinity, on the order of 10 yg/m3 or less.  At this
level, SO2 has not been found to produce either acute or chronic
damage to the type of crops to be grown in the irrigation project.
The effects of air-dispersed trace elements, including large

      :Low flow of record at Shiprock since the construction of
Navajo Dam is 68 cfs (present management attempts to assure 400
cfs) .

      2About 75 percent of the total water required for energy pro-
duction is lost to evaporation in forced-draft cooling towers.  If
once-through cooling is employed, this water can be returned to the
San Juan above Chaco Wash and Shiprock.  The increased dilution of
20 percent reflects changes in volume and disregards losses from
the river due to evaporation or seepage; it similarly does not
reflect periods of increased rainfall or other seasonal variation.


                               371
-------
amounts of  fluorine, cadmium, arsenic, and mercury, cannot be
predicted.  However, under similar circumstances, concentrations
of these elements  (with the exception of fluorine) were not pre-
dicted to reach toxic concentrations in terrestrial environments.1
Fluoride concentrations, with all facilities on-line, may approach
cumulative  damage  levels in sensitive plants of 1 part per billion
over extended periods of time, depending on the stack gas scrub-
bing method.2

     Other  potential impacts on the biological portion of mineral
cycling arise from S02 emissions.  A considerable amount of sul-
fur will be emitted into the air and may eventually be deposited
on land.  The impact of this additional sulfur is not known, but
it may be expected to accumulate in the ecosystem, eventually
reacting with biological components and beginning to cycle within
the systems.3  However, given the anticipated level of scenario
development, it is unlikely that sufficient sulfate will enter
the soil to induce an overall acidification problem, especially
since many  soils are slightly alkaline.

D.  After 2000

     A total of 71,900 acres, which is 2.0 percent of the acres
in San Juan County, will have been disturbed by the facilities
during their 30-year lifetime (Table 5-42)  and an additional
8,700 acres by the urban population (Table 5-43).  This total
acreage of  80,600 would support 178 cows with calves and 315 sheep
(according  to BIA  recommended stocking rate, which is one-third
of the actual 1975 stocking rate), which is 0.7 percent of such
livestock in San Juan County in 1974 (Table 5-44).  Attempts by
ranchers to compensate for these forage losses by moving sheep or
cows to other, unmined lands will probably be unsuccessful.  Over-
grazing on Navajo  lands is already heavy, and increased grazing
pressure on remaining rangelands may decrease forage production to
the point where livestock carrying capacities are significantly
lower than  they were prior to energy development.
     ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management,
Final Environmental Impact Statement;  Proposed Kaiparowits Pro-
ject,6 vols.Salt Lake City,Utah:Bureau of Land Management,
1976, pp. 111-60 to 111-64.

     2Ibid.,  p. 111-65.

     3See Tiedeman, A.R., and J.O.  Klemmedson.  "Nutrient Avail-
ability in Desert Grassland Soils Under Mesquite (Prosopis juli-
flora)  Trees  and Adjacent Open Areas."  Soil Science Society of
America Proceedings, Vol. 37  (January-February 1973), pp. 107-11;
and Tucker, T.C., and R.L. Websterman.  Gaseous Losses of Nitro-
gen from Soil of Semi-Arid Regions, US/IBP Desert Biome Research
Memo 73-37, 1973.
                               372
-------
     The major cumulative habitat losses of the Navajo Scenario
will take place in an area of desert bounded by the San Juan River,
New Mexico Highway 44, and the Chaco Wash.  Environmental factors
which will limit the reestablishment of vegetation are:  limited
rainfall and high evaporation, erodibility and salinity of much
of the overburden material, general absence of good topsoil, and
uncontrolled grazing by large livestock populations on the Navajo
Reservation.

     Overgrazing by Navajo livestock is a critical factor.  Re-
seeding efforts at Black Mesa on the Navajo Reservation have
failed several times, largely because livestock destroyed the
early growth.1  Alternative techniques, such as planting seedlings,
may substantially increase the success of revegetation, but at
present no formal plans have been developed to initiate a seedling
program.  Current practices at two 'surface mines in the Four Cor-
ners area involve application of up to 12 inches of water for a
period of 2 years in an effort to reestablish growth of both na-
tive and nonnative species.  Invasion of nonpalatable species
(Russian thistle) has occurred, and some species common to wetter
locations have been established, but successful long-term mainte-
nance of these species does not appear likely.  Data for a period
of longer than two years are not available.

     Impacts after 2000 associated with population increases,
water use and water pollution, and air quality changes are ex-
pected to be similar to those prior to 2000.

5.5.5  Summary of Ecological Impacts

     Four factors associated with construction and operation of
the scenario facilities can significantly affect the ecological
impacts of energy development:  land use, population increases,
water use and water pollution, and air quality changes.  Land use
by urban population and energy facilities during their 30-year
lifetime will be 80,600 acres, which is 2.3 percent of the land
in San Juan County.  Land use by a nonenergy development, the
NIIP, which will use 96,630 acres between 1976 and 1986, will
also cause ecological impacts.  By 2000, the urban population in
San Juan County will increase to 146,300, a 134 percent increase
over the 1975 population.  Water use by the year 2000 will be
226,000 acre-ft/yr for the NIIP, 66,400 acre-ft/yr for the energy
     lrrhames, J.L., and T.R. Verma.  "Coal Mine Reclamation in the
Black Mesa and the Four Corners Areas of Northeastern Arizona,"
in Wali, M.K., ed.  Practices and Problems of Land Reclamation in
Western North America.  Grand Forks, N. Dak.:  University of
North Dakota Press, 1975.

                               373
-------
facilities, and 15,350 acre-ft/yr for the increased population.
These water requirements will be met with water from the Navajo
Reservoir which has a limited water supply.  By 2000, the Navajo
Reservoir, which is currently drawn down about 45 feet per year,
will be drawn down 95 feet per year to meet the total water re-
quirements.  Effluents from the energy facilities will be ponded
to prevent contamination of surface water and groundwater.  In-
creased effluents from the urban population will require updated
sewage treatment facilities to prevent water pollution.

     Although ecological impacts will begin with the first year
of the scenario, noticeable regional effects will probably not
become evident until after 1985.  The most important of these
impacts--judged on the basis of geographic extent, potential for
altering the size and/or stability of populations of important
species, or likelihood of resulting in a change in the structure
or function of a large portion of an ecosystem—are summarized
below.  Their expected cumulative impact on selected animals is
presented in Table 5-45.

     Major ecological impacts are ranked into classes in Table
5-46.  These classes are based on the extent of habitat and num-
ber of species affected by a given action.  Class A impacts such
as habitat removal or fragmentation, the replacement of the desert
ecosystem by cultivated croplands, and little or no revegetation
on mined areas, affect several species over a wide area and are
considered the most severe.  Class B impacts locally affect fewer
species and include illegal shooting and poaching as well as the
potential loss of small herds of antelope.  Impacts that are likely
to affect the fewest animals and are extremely localized  (such as
the consumption of impounded wastewaters) are ranked as Class C.

     Assuming that climatic factors, poor soils, and overgrazing
will combine to preclude effective reclamation of strip mines, the
combined effect of habitat loss from energy developments will be
to cause an overall decline in the water- or food-limited desert
fauna and to replace it by a cover-limited fauna typical of farm-
lands.  Total animal abundance will probably increase due to the
impact of the irrigation project, in spite of the opposite trend
associated with energy development.

     Two groups of species will serve as barometers or indicators
of this change.  Species adapted to the desert  (which are ex-
pected to decline because of habitat loss) include Gunnison's
prairie dog, Ord's kangaroo rat, the silky pocket mouse,  and white-
throated wood rat.  Decline in these, particularly the prairie
dog, will affect other species adapted to  living among and preying
on them.  For example, the western burrowing owl, ferruginous hawk,
and badger may be expected to exhibit sharp declines.  In addition
to a decrease in predators, fragmentation of open areas will con-
tribute to the decline of gray and kit foxes.  The NIIP will pro-
vide a food base for increased numbers of other rodents and birds,
some of which may become pests  (such as the pocket gopher, which

                               374
-------
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may increase where root crops [such as sugar beets]  are grown).
Gophers, mice, and moles are now found in the area and are expected
to become common as the expansion of agriculture proceeds.  Some
of these rodent populations could become reservoirs for plague.
Swallows and various small farmland sparrows will also increase;
although the horned lark will still be a common resident, it will
no longer be the dominant species.

     Coincident with this increase in smaller wildlife, there.will
probably be an expansion of the population of several predators
or omnivores adapted to farmland situations.  Many of the hawks
already breeding in the area could increase in numbers as a result
of the increased prey base in the irrigated lands, provided that
adequate nesting sites are present.  These include the marsh hawk,
kestrel, redtail, and roughleg.   Red fox and striped skunk will
probably also increase.

     Toxic substances discharged into on-site holding ponds cannot
be ruled out as hazards to some wildlife, but the possibility of
their constituting a threat on a region-wide scale appears to be
small.  The ecological impact of pesticide and fertilizer use by
the NIIP cannot be predicted.

     Withdrawals from the San Juan River for irrigation and energy
use will reduce flow to minimum requirements during dry periods.
This reduction will lower both abundance and diversity in the
aquatic ecosystem.  Floodplain marshes, important to waterfowl,
may be reduced in extent.

     The most widespread of the scenario's impacts,  with the
greatest potential for reducing the abundance and diversity of
native plant and animal life, are those arising from the growth
of San Juan County's population from 62,400 to 146,300 over the
study period.  These impacts include fragmentation of riparian
foothill habitat by residential and commercial development, which
will place additional stress on deer, waterfowl, and other water-
related avifauna.  In particular, antelope near Farmington are
expected to be lost or decline to a few individuals.  Vandalism
will tend to reduce diversity and abundance of birds of prey near
town and within the area of the energy developments.  In additon,
domestic and wild dogs may become a significant stress on both
small and large animals adjacent to the San Juan Valley.  A major
impact of increased population will be to increase erosion losses
and thus reduce vegetative cover.

     Several endangered species may be affected by energy develop-
ment.  The Black-footed ferret is known to exist near the scenario
area but not within it.  If present, they will probably be elimi-
nated.  Three of seven active peregrine falcon nests in the Rockies
are located near Durango close to an area receiving increasing use
by campers and recreationists.  The reason for their continued
decline is uncertain; if they are disturbed by hikers, they may

                               378
-------
desert these nesting sites.  At least one bald eagle nest is
known in the San Juan Valley above the Navajo Reservoir; heavier
recreational use of this area could result in its abandonment.
The Colorado squawfish and the humpback sucker (recently removed
from "threatened" status) have been reported from the San Juan
River.  If present below Shiprock, they could be eliminated lo-
cally by flow depletion.

     Several of the significant impacts described above can be
modified by changes in technologies.  If mined areas are planted
with native seedlings following a complete replacement of topsoils,
reclamation will have a better chance to succeed, although long-
term stability is still an issue.  In addition, salt deposition
from cooling tower drift would be eliminated by the use of a cool-
ing lake (although such a lake would almost be as large as the
area affected by cooling tower drift), by the use of dry cooling
towers, or by once-through cooling processes.  A decrease in water
consumption would benefit the riparian habitats along the San Juan
River.  In addition, controls over access to remote habitats, es-
pecially by vehicle, would minimize the adverse effects to the
ecosystem from the enlarged population.  However, such restrictions
on use would substantially reduce the aesthetic and recreational
values of the ecosystem.

5.6  OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT NAVAJO/FARMINGTON

     Major benefits resulting from the hypothetical developments
in the Navajo/Farmington scenario will be the production of 500
million cubic feet of gas and 100,000 barrels of oil daily, 3,000
megawatts of electric power generating capacity,  and annual pro-
duction of 1,000 metric tons of yellowcake.  These benefits accrue
primarily to people outside the area,  but locally substantial in-
creases in per capita income, trade, and other economic develop-
ment could take place, principally to the Navajo Nation.

     Social, economic, and political impacts associated with en-
ergy development in the Navajo/Farmington area tend to be a func-
tion of the labor and capital intensity of facilities and, when
multiple facilities are involved, of scheduling their construction.
These factors determine the pace and extent of migration of people
to the scenario area as well as the financial and managerial capa-
bility of local governments to provide services and facilities for
the increased population.  Labor forces increase the population
directly and indirectly.  More labor is required for construction
of the facilities than for operation;  thus suitable scheduling of
facility construction can minimize population instability.  Of
the scenario facilities considered, the gasification-mine combina-
tions are the least labor-intensive and the Synthoil facility is
the most.  Revenue for the local, state, and federal governments
is generated mainly by sales taxes, royalty payments on fed-
erally owned coal, and an energy conversion tax levied on the
energy produced.   The fact that Farmington is a relatively large

                              379
-------
community now with extant planning capacity will mitigate negative
social, economic, and political impacts.  Farmington has a greater
capacity to handle growth than do smaller communities.  All com-
munities regardless of size will encounter difficulty in obtaining
funds for increased public facilities and services.  Solutions to
problems concerning who receives the benefits of revenue from the
conversion technologies and who provides services needed involves
all levels of government and their ability to relate to each other.
There are currently no funding assistance programs in New Mexico
for small communities.

     If people who have migrated out of the area returned and were
hired along with some local unemployed laborers (to meet the man-
power requirements for energy facility construction and operation) ,
then political and cultural impacts caused by a population increase
of strangers would not be as great.  In the Farmington area, life-
style and cultural differences, especially concerning Indians and
non-Indians, will influence the way in which impacts from energy
development are perceived.

     Air quality impacts associated with energy development are
related primarily to quantities of pollutants emitted by the fa-
cilities and to those associated with population increases.  Of
the coal facilities, the greatest concentrations of particulates,
NOX, and SO2 are emitted by the power plant and the least, by the
gasification plant, but the Synthoil plant emits higher HC con-
centrations than the other plants.  Uranium mine-mill emissions
of criteria pollutants are negligible compared to coal plants.
Diffuse population-related emissions would probably cause higher
concentrations of particulates, NOX, and HC than those produced by
the facilities.

     The sulfur content of Farmington coal is such that SO2 emis-
sions from a power plant with no emission controls would violate
NSPS and ambient air standards.  With 80 percent sulfur removal,
neither would be violated.  Dispersion potential in the scenario
area is good, and plumes from the hypothesized facilities are
rarely expected to interact.  Thus, the presence of several facil-
ities is not expected to create significant violations of ambient
air quality standards.1  Individually, only the Synthoil plant
greatly exceeds standards due to the low-level fugitive HC emis-
sions.  In selected instances, the facilities exceed both Class I
and Class II significant deterioration increments.  The ambient
air quality standards are currently exceeded for both particulates
and HC at Farmington, and the new population and facilities can be
expected to exacerbate this problem.  In addition, the plumes of
the plants will be visible from any part of the area and will


     Exceptions may occur during downslope wind conditions.  New
Mexico Environmental Improvement Agency Staff, Personal Communi-
cation, November 23, 1976.

                               380
-------
typically reduce visibility about 10 percent, with much greater
reduction under adverse meteorological conditions.

     Technological variables affecting impacts include improved
emission controls or reduced plant size.  Both these alternatives,
if carried out at an adequate operational level, would reduce the
number of potential standards violations.  In addition, coal ben-
eficiation steps that would remove inorganic sulfur would also
reduce conflicts with sulfur standards.

     Water impacts associated with energy development in the
Navajo-Farmington area are a function of the water required for
and effluents produced by facilities and associated populations.
Of the coal facilities, a power plant requires the most water,
a Lurgi plant, the least.  The uranium facility uses five times
less water than the Lurgi plant and 21 times less than the power
plant.  Water demand for the population is significant but less
than that for the facilities.  Effluents from the various types
of conversion plants are similar in amount but different in com-
position.  For example, effluents from coal gasification plants
are primarily ash and from power plants are nearly equal 'amounts
of ash and FGD sludge.  Effluents from all facilities will be
ponded to prevent contamination of surface water and groundwater.

     Site-specific factors that affect water impacts in the Farm-
ington area are:  the limited supply of water in the San Juan
Basin; the generally poor quality surface and groundwater; and
the high ash content and low moisture content of Farmington coal.
More ash-containing effluents will be produced by plants in this
scenario area than in other scenario areas, and more water is
required by a Lurgi facility using Farmington coal than for Lurgi
facilities located elsewhere in the West, where coal contains more
moisture.

     If all the scenario energy facilities are built according to
the hypothesized time schedule, conflicts over water use in the
San Juan Basin will increase substantially, both among users in
the basin and between users in the Farmington area and those
presently using downstream flow.  This use-would significantly
affect the quality of the surface water  (especially in such
characteristics as TDS, temperature, and the ability of water to
transport sediment) and other features of stream hydrology.
Groundwater quality could also be affected by leaching chemicals
from the settling ponds, and erosion of the pond dikes could
affect surface waters.

     Dry or wet/dry cooling combinations significantly decrease
water consumption especially for the power plant, but would both
increase costs and decrease plant efficiency.  Among other changes,
this efficiency change would result in some expansion of mining,
air emissions, and a slightly larger population.  Changes in


                               381
-------
cooling methods could affect up to 13 percent of available water
in the Basin.  Other technological changes could be significant,
including the use of treated sewage for plant cooling (as is done
in some southwest areas).   The use of combinations of cooling
towers and evaporation ponds could also reduce some water use,
especially during the winter.

     Ecological impacts associated with energy development in the
area depend on land use,  population increases, water use and water
pollution, and air quality changes.  Land use by surface mining
activities is greater than use by conversion facilities or than
the amount of land required by expanded populations.  However,
mined lands can potentially be reclaimed, while land use by con-
version facilities and populations is permanently lost.  In the
Farmington area, reclamation success is uncertain; the arid cli-
mate and poor soils will make it difficult.   Impacts associated
with increased populations will be significant, if recreational
activities on public lands are allowed to fragment habitat and
disrupt wildlife.  Use of the limited water supply will decrease
aquatic habitat availability, but water pollution is not expected
to have significant impact on aquatic communities.  The exception
is possible leakage of affluent ponds which contain heavy metals,
trace elements, and carcinogenic compounds.   In the Farmington
area, air emissions and ambient air concentrations are not expec-
ted to affect ecological communities.

     If all the facilities hypothesized are constructed, several
significant ecological efxfects are likely to occur from the com-
bined impacts of surface mining, land use, new population, and the
use of water.  Water withdrawal from the San Juan will adversely
affect the aquatic and riparian ecosystems.  The new population
will fragment habitat, damage vegetation, and contribute to the
erosion of soils, as well as stress wildlife populations through
intentional or inadvertent harrassment.  Thus, certain species
are likely to be eliminated or significantly reduced on a local
basis.  The combined impact of mining and desert irrigation will
favor an animal community in the desert portion of the scenario
area which is more typical of farmlands or grasslands than of the
original arid desert shrub ecosystem.

     Several of these impacts could be significantly modified by
reclamation technologies or by extensive social controls.  By us-
ing seedling transplants,  adequate water, and fertilization, rec-
lamation might have a better short-term chance of success.  How-
ever, the costs of this practice would be significant and would
divert water from other beneficial uses.  Controls over human use
of the area would require an extensive use of permits for recre-
ational use and zoning.  Provisions for habitat control in the
river valley and habitat management programs on farmlands can also
affect vegetation and animal abundance.
                                382
-------
                           CHAPTER 6

   THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE RIFLE AREA


6.1  INTRODUCTION

     Energy development in the Rifle area is located in Rio Blanco
and Garfield counties in northwestern Colorado  (Figure 6-1).   As
shown in Figure 6-2, the hypothetical developments include crude
oil, coal, and oil shale extraction, conversion, and transporta-
tion.  The TOSCO II (the Oil Shale Corporation) oil shale retort-
ing facility is assumed to produce 50,000 barrels per day  (bbl/day)
with oil shale supplied by an underground mine.  The modified in
situ process  (Occidental Oil Shale) oil shale facility is assumed
to produce 57,000 bbl/day.  Pipelines transport the upgraded oil
from the TOSCO II and in situ facilities to refineries outside the
region.  In the modified in situ process, a portion of the shale
is mined prior to establishing the in situ retort; that portion
may simply be disposed of at the surface or retorted in a TOSCO II
surface retort.  A 3.4 million tons per year (MMtpy) room-and-
pillar coal mine supplies a 1,000-megawatt electric (MWe) power
plant that provides electricity to local users and the regional
power grid via 500-kilovolt (kV)  transmission lines.  The 400-well
field produces 50,000 bbl/day, which is transported via pipeline
to refineries outside the region.  These facilities will be con-
structed between 1977 and 2000.  The construction schedules for
the scenario and selected technical details of these facilities
are presented in Table 6-1.!
            this hypothetical development may be similar to some
developments proposed by Moon Lake Electric Company, Midland Coal
Company, Blue Mountain Coal, Gulf Oil, ShelL Oil, Superior Oil
Shale, Paraho Oil Shale Demonstration, Consolidation Coal, W.R.
Grace, Hanna Mining, Utah International, and others, it must
be stressed that the development identified here is hypothetical.
As with the others, this scenario was used to structure the assess-
ment of a particular combination of technologies and existing
conditions.

                               383
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TABLE  6-1:    RESOURCES  AND  HYPOTHESIZED  FACILITIES  AT  RIFLE
Resource*
Coal* (billions or tons)
Resources 3
Proved Reserves 4

Oil Shaleb (billions of barrels)
Resources 117
Proved Reserves 53

Oil (billions of barrels)
Resources': 10
Technologies
Resource Production
foil 1
uoai
One underground roora-and-
pillar mine utilizing
continuous miners
Oil Shale
One underground room-and-
pillar mine
Oil
400 wells drilled at the
rate of 100 per year


Conversion
1,000-MWe power plant consist-
ing of two 500-MWe turbine
generators; 34% plant effi-
ciency; 30% efficient limestone
scrubbers; 99% efficient electro-
static precipitator; and wet
forced-draft cooling towers4
One 50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II oil
shale facility with wet forced-
draft cooling towers
One modified in situ oil shale
facility
Transportation
Coal
Two conveyor belts from the
mine to the plant
Oil
One 16-inch pipeline
Oil Shale
One conveyor belt
Shale Oil
One 20-inch pipeline
Electricity
One line (to regional power
grid)
One line (to local power
grid)
CHARACTERISTICS
Coal
Heat Contentd 11,220 Btu's/lb
Moisture 13 %
Volatile Matter 42 %
Fixed Carbon 53 %
Ash S %
Sulfur 0.6 %


FACILITY
SIZE
3.4 MMtpy



26 MMtpy


12,500 bbl/day
12,500 bbl/day
12,500 bbl/day
12,500 bbl/day

500 MNe
500 MNe





50,000 bbl/day


57,000 bbl/day






50,000 bbl/day

26 MMtpy

107,000 bbl/day

500 lev

265 kV

COMPLETION
DATE
1980



1995


1982
1983
1984
1985

1979
1980





1985


1990



1980


1985

1985

1985

1980

1980

FACILITY
SERVICED
Power plant



Oil shale retort


Pipeline
Pipeline
Pipeline
Pipeline

Power plant
Power plant





Oil shale






Power plant


Oil well field

Oil shale retort

oil shale retort

Power plant

Power plant

                                                               MWe » megawatt-electric
                                                               kV - kilovolts
Btu's/lb » British  thermal units per pound
MMtpy - million  tons  per year
bbl/day • barrels per day

a!974 Keystone Coal Industry Manual.  New York,  N.Y.:   McGraw-Hill, 1974, p. 477.  Proved
reserves are  calculated as 50 percent of the defined resources.

^National Petroleum Council, Committee on U.S.  Energy  Outlook.  U.S. Energy Outlook.
Washington, D.C.:  National Petroleum Council,  1972, pp.  207-8.  Proved reserves
are calculated as 50  percent of the defined resources.

National Petroleum Council, Committee on U.S.  Energy  Outlook, Oil and Gas Subcommittees,
Oil and Gas Supply Task Groups.  'J.S. Energy Outlook:   Oil  and Gas Availability.
Washington, D.C..  National Petroleum Council,  1973.

 Ctvrtnicek,  T.E.,  S.J. Rusek, and C.W. Sandy.   Evaluation  of Low-Sulfur Western Coal
Characteristics,  Utilization, and Combustion Experience,  EPA-650/2-75-046, Contract
No. 53-02-1302.   Dayton, Ohio:  Monsanto Research Corporation, 1975.

*Due to format  restrictions, this facility was  defined as four 250-MNe units for the
calculations  of  the social/economic impacts.
                                                   386
-------
     In all four impact sections of this chapter (air,  water,
social and economic, and ecological),  the factors that produce
impacts are identified and discussed separately for each energy
facility type.  In the air and water sections, the impacts caused
by those factors are discussed separately for each facility
type and, in combination, for a scenario in which all facilities
are constructed according to the scenario schedule.  In the social
and economic and ecological sections,  only the combined impacts
of the scenario are discussed.  This distinction is made because
social, economic, and ecological effects are, for the most part,
higher order impacts.  Consequently, facility-by-facility impact
discussions would have been repetitive in nearly every respect.

     Land ownership in the area is predominantly federal, with
state and private ownership clustered along streams in valleys.
The area population has been increasing in the last decade, but
unemployment is low.  Employment is highest in the service indus-
tries, but construction and agriculture are also major employers.
The area enjoys some tourist trade as it is on a commonly used
route to Aspen and Vail.  The quality of life in the area is
considered excellent by the residents, and a larger than normal
fraction of the population is of retirement age.

     The terrain is rugged to mountainous, and climate varies
with altitude.  Annual precipitation is between 12 and 20 inches,
and annual snowfall is between 60 and 100 inches.  The climate is
cool, with only 50 to 120 frost-free days per year.  Due to the
absence of pollution sources, air quality is good, although air
stagnation occurs in the valleys.

     Biological communities in the Rifle area also vary with alti-
tude.  Valley floors near streambeds are primarily croplands but
contain elder, oak, and willow trees,  and a large variety of birds
and small mammals.  As the elevation increases, plant and animal
species become more characteristic of mountain areas, moving from
pinyon-juniper to fir and pine at high altitudes with deer and elk,
as well as some black bear.  Hunting for deer and elk is a major
activity in the area.

     The White and Colorado Rivers and their tributaries are the
principal surface water sources for the area, with numerous inter-
mittent streams flowing into them.  Water quality in the smaller
streams is generally poor, primarily as a result of irrigation
runoff.  However, water quality is good in the major streams.
Groundwater is located predominately in alluvial aquifers which
are associated with the surface streams.  Groundwater is also
found in a bedrock aquifer associated with the Mahogany Zone,  the
richest source of oil shale.  Additional site characteristics are
shown in Table 6-2 and elaborated in greater detail as needed in
the following sections.
                               387
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6.2  AIR IMPACTS1

6.2.1  Existing Conditions

A.  Background Pollutants

     Air quality in the Rifle area is currently affected  by  a  num-
ber of air emission sources, the most significant of which is  the
Mid-Continent Coal and Coke Company.  Measurements of  concentra-
tions of criteria pollutants2 taken through  late 1975  in  the Rifle
area indicate that no federal or Colorado ambient air  standards
are violated.3  Based on these measurements  the annual average
background levels for all six criteria pollutants chosen  as  inputs
to the dispersion model are in micrograms per cubic meter; parti-
culates, 12; sulfur dioxide  (SC>2), 2; nitrogen oxides  (NOX) , 5;
hydrocarbons  (HC), 130; carbon monoxide  (CO), 1,000; and  oxidants,
68. "

B.  Meteorological Conditions

     The worst dispersion conditions for the Rifle area are  asso-
ciated with stable air conditions, low wind  speeds  (less  than  5-10
miles per hour), unchanging wind direction,  and relatively low mix-
ing depths.5  These conditions are likely to increase  concentrations
      The federal standards referred to in this section are those
promulgated prior to the revisions mandated by the Clean Air Act
Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685.

     2Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient  air quality
standards are in force:  CO, HC,  NOx, oxidants, particulates,  and
S02.  The term "hydrocarbons" is  generally used to refer to non-
methane HC.

     3Ashland Oil, Inc.; Shell Oil, Operator.  Oil Shale Tract C-b
Environmental and Exploration Program, Summary Reports  2, 3, 4 and
5.  Denver, Colo.:  C-b Oil Shale Project, Inc;, October 1975.

     4These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's best
professional judgment.  They are  used as the best estimates of the
concentrations to be expected at  any particular time.   Measure-
ments of HC and CO are not available in the rural areas.  However,
high-background HC levels have been measured at other  rural loca-
tions in the West and may occur here.  Measurements of  long-range
visibility in the area are not available, but the average is esti-
mated to be 60 miles.

     5Mixing depth is the distance from the ground to  the upward
boundary of pollution dispersion.

                                389
-------
of pollutants from both ground-level and elevated sources.1  Since
worst-case conditions differ at each facility location  (largely
due to the wide variety of terrain in the Rifle area) , predicted
annual average pollutant levels will vary among locations even if
pollutant sources are identical.  Meteorological conditions in the
area are generally unfavorable for pollution dispersion about 30
percent of the time.  Hence, plume impaction2 and limited mixing
of plumes caused by temperature inversions at the plume height
can be expected to occur regularly. 3  Good dispersion conditions
associated with moderate winds and large mixing depths are ex-
pected to occur about 15 percent of the time.

     As is the case at most western sites, the potential for dis-
persion of pollutants in the Rifle area varies considerably by sea-
son and time of day.  Fall and winter mornings are most frequently
associated with poor dispersion, due largely to more persistent
high-pressure areas with lower wind speeds and mixing depths.

6.2.2  Factors Producing Impacts

     The primary emission sources in the Rifle area are a power
plant, oil shale processing and retorting facilities, supporting
coal and oil shale mines, the oil well fields, and population in-
creases.  The focus of this section is on emissions of criteria
pollutants from the facilities .**  Table 6-3 lists the amounts of
the five criteria pollutants emitted by each of the facilities.
Oil well field emissions are negligible in comparison to the power
plant and oil shale facility emissions.  For all conversion pro-
cesses, most emissions come from the plants, rather than the mines,
since all mines are underground.  Most underground coal and oil
shale mine-related pollution originates from diesel engine combus-
tion products, primarily NOX , HC, and particulates .  Although the
mines are underground and dust suppression techniques are hypoth-
esized in the scenario, some additional particulates will come


     Ground-level sources include towns and strip mines that emit
pollutants close to ground level.  Elevated sources are stack
emissions.

     2 Plume impaction occurs when stack plumes impinge on elevated
terrain because of limited atmospheric mixing and stable air con-
ditions.

     3National Climatic Center.  Wind Dispersion by Pasquill Sta-
bility Class, Star Program for Selected U.S. Cities.  Asheville,
N.C.:  National Climatic Center, 1975.
          impacts associated with population increases are dis-
cussed below  (Section 6.2.3) as they relate to the scenario,
which includes all facilities constructed according to the hypoth-
esized schedule.

                               390
-------
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                                                   391
-------
from blasting, coal piles, oil shale crushing, and blowing dust.1
The power plant emits more S02 than the oil shale facilities, but
the TOSCO II facility emits more particulates than the power plant
or the in situ oil shale process.  Overall, the iri situ facility
without the surface retort emits the least amount of criteria
pollutants  (Table 6-3).

     The hypothetical power plant, for which data in Table 6-3
were calculated, has two 500-MWe boilers each with its own stack.2
The plant is equipped with an electrostatic precipitator  (ESP)
which removes 99 percent of the particulates and a scrubber which
removes 80 percent of the S02 and from 0 to 40 percent of the NOX.3
For a power plant operating under these conditions, Table 6-4 lists
the amounts of particulates, SOa and NOX expected to be emitted per
million Btu of coal burned and compares the amounts to the New
Source Performance Standards (NSPS).4  The amounts of particulates
and S02 emitted are well below these standards.  In order to just
meet NSPS, the power plant would require 97.3 percent particulate
removal, but no SOa removal.5  If no N0x is removed, NSPS will be
exceeded.  A minimum of 15 percent NO  must be removed to meet NSPS.

     In addition to emissions from the stacks, one 75,000-barrel
oil storage tank at the plant,  with standard floating roof con-
struction, will emit up to 0.7 pound of HC per hour.

     Both the power plant and the TOSCO II oil shale conversion
facility are cooled by wet forced-draft cooling towers.  Each
cell in the tower circulates water at a rate of 15,330 gallons
     xThe effectiveness of current dust suppression practices is un-
certain.  Research is being conducted by the Environmental Protec-
tion Agency.  The problem is discussed qualitatively in Chapter 10.

     2Stacks are 500 feet high, have an exit diameter of 23.6 feet,
mass flow rates of 1.57 x 106 cubic feet per minute, an exit velo-
city of 60 feet per second, and an exit temperature of 180°F.

     3Exact amount of removal of N0x by scrubbers is uncertain.
The maximum estimate is 40 percent; minimum is 0.

     ''NSPS limit the amount of a given pollutant a stationary source
may emit; the limit is expressed relative to the amount of energy
in the fuel burned.

     5Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat.
685, § 109, require both an emissions limitation and,a percentage
reduction of SOz, particulates, and NOX.  Revised standards have
not yet been established by the Environmental Protection Agency.

                                392
-------
         TABLE 6-4:
COMPARISON OF EMISSIONS FROM POWER
PLANT WITH NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE
STANDARDS
(pounds per million Btu)
POWER PLANT
Particulates
S02a
NOX
EMISSION

.19
,48-.80b
NSPS
0.1
1.2
0.7
               NSPS = New Source Performance Standards
               Btu = British thermal unit
               S02 = sulfur dioxide
               N0x = nitrogen oxide

               aThe Colorado State standard for SO2
               emissions is 0.4 pounds per million Btu.
               Data from White, Irvin L., et al.
               Energy From the West:  Energy Resource
               Development Systems Report.  Washington,
               D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection
               Agency, forthcoming, Chapter 2.

                Range represents 0 and 40 percent
               removal by SO2 scrubbers.
per minute (gpm) and emits 0.01 percent of its water as a mist.1
The circulating water has a total dissolved solids  (TDS) content
of 3,500 parts per million.  This results in a salt emission
rate of 21,500 pounds per year for each cell.2

6.2.3  Impacts

     This section describes air quality impacts which result from
each type of conversion facility  (a power plant and oil shale
     Efficiencies are Radian's estimates of current industrial
practices.

     2The power plant has 22 cells and the 50,000-bbl/day TOSCO II
oil shale plant has 5.
                                393
-------
plants) taken separately1 and from a scenario which includes con-
struction of all facilities according to the hypothesized scenario
schedule.2  For the power plant the effect on air quality of hy-
pothesized emission control, alternative emission control, alter-
native stack heights, alternative plant sizes, and alternative
plant locations are discussed.  The focus is on concentrations of
criteria pollutants  (particulates, S02, NOX, HC, and CO).  See
Chapter 10 for a qualitative description of sulfates, other oxi-
dants, fine particulates, long range visibility, plume opacity,
cooling tower salt deposition, and cooling tower fogging and icing.

     In all cases, air quality impacts result primarily  from the
operation rather than the construction of these facilities.  Con-
struction impacts are limited to periodic increases in particulate
concentrations due to windblown dust.  These may cause periodic vi-
olations of 24-hour National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)
for particulates.

A.  Power Plant Impacts

     Air quality impacts result primarily from the operation of
the power plant and depend largely on the degree of emission con-
trol imposed.  Concentrations resulting from the hypothesized case
where control equipment removes 80 percent of the SC-2 and 99 per-
cent of particulates are discussed first, followed by a discussion
of alternative emission controls, alternative stack heights, alter-
native plant sizes, and alternative plant locations.

 (1)  Hypothesized Emission Control

     Table 6-5 summarizes the concentrations of four pollutants
predicted to be produced by this hypothesized power plant  (1,000
MWe, 80 percent S02 removal, and 99 percent particulate  removal).
These pollutants  (particulates, S02, nitrogen dioxide [N02], and
HC) are regulated by federal and Colorado state ambient  air qual-
ity standards, which are also shown in Table 6-5.  This  informa-
tion shows that the typical concentrations associated with the
plant, when added to existing background levels, are below most
federal and state ambient air standards.  However, the peak con-
centrations produced by the plant do violate Colorado's  24-hour
and 3-hour SO2 standards.
     JAir quality impacts caused by the underground mines  are  ex-
pected to be negligible in comparison with impacts caused  by con-
version facilities.

     2Because air emissions from the oil well field are  small  in
comparison to those from the power plant and oil shale facilities,
the impacts of those emissions are not considered in this  section.

                               394
-------
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                                    395
-------
     Table 6-5 also lists Prevention of Significant Deterioration
(PSD)  standards, which are the allowable increments of pollutants
that can be added to areas of relatively clean air (i.e., areas
with air quality better than that allowed by ambient air stan-
dards) . 1  Class I standards, intended to protect the cleanest
areas such as national parks, are the most restrictive.2  Peak
concentration from the power plant exceeds Class II increments for
3-hour and 24-hour SOz and Class I increments for 24-hour par-
ticulates, annual, 24-hour, and 3-hour S02.

     Since the plant exceeds Class I increments, it would have to
be located far enough from any Class I areas to allow emissions to
be diluted by atmospheric mixing prior to reaching such areas.
The distance required for this dilution (which varies by facility
type, size, emission controls, and meteorological conditions) in
effect establishes a "buffer zone" around Class I areas.  Current
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations would require a
minimum buffer zone of 13.6 miles between this hypothesized power
plant and any Class I area's boundary.3  Although no proposed
Class I areas are within 15 miles of the plant site, the White
River National Forest is less than 10 miles to the east.  If this
forest were designated a Class I area, the power plant would prob-
ably violate allowable increments (Figure 6-3).  Maroon Bells-
Snowmass National Wilderness Area and Mt.  Zirkel National Wilder-
ness Area have been designated Class I areas and are in the vicin-
ity of the Rifle facility.

     In a worse-case situation, expected to occur about once a
year, the power plant may reduce background visibility  (presently
about 60 miles) to between 9 and 27 miles, depending on the amount
     *PSD standards apply only to particulates and S02 .

     2The Environmental Protection Agency initially designated all
PSD areas Class II and established a process requiring petitions
and public hearings for redesignating areas Glass I or Class III.
A Class II designation is for areas which have moderate, well-
controlled energy or industrial development and permits less de-
terioration than that allowed by federal secondary ambient stan-
dards.  Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat.
685.

     3Note that buffer zones around energy facilities will not be
symmetric circles.  This lack of symmetry is clearly illustrated
by area windroses which show wind direction patterns and strengths
for various areas and seasons.  Hence, the direction of prevention
of significant deterioration areas from energy facilities will be
critical to the size of the buffer zone required.  Note also that
the term buffer zone is in disfavor.  We use it because we believe
it accurately describes the effect of PSD requirements.

                               396
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397
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of SOa converted to particulates in the atmosphere.1  On the  aver-
age, visibility reductions are expected to be negligible.

(2)   Alternative Emission Controls

     The base case control for the Rifle power plant assumed  an
S02  scrubber efficiency of 80 percent and an ESP efficiency of 99
percent.  The effect on ambient air concentrations of three addi-
tional emission control alternatives is illustrated in Table  6-6.
These alternatives include a 95 percent efficient 502 scrubber;
a scrubber without an ESP; and an alternative in which neither a
scrubber nor an ESP are utilized.

     An examination of Table 6-6 reveals violations of Class  II
PSD increments for 3-hour and 24-hour S02 emissions with the  80
percent efficient scrubber.  Complete removal of the scrubber ag-
gravates these violations and results in violations of the less
stringent NAAQS for 3-hour and 24-hour S02 emissions.  The use of
99 percent efficient ESP allows the plant to meet all applicable
standards for total suspended particulates  (TSP) emissions.   Re-
moval of the ESP results in violations of the NAAQS for  24-hour TSP
emissions and Class II PSD increments for 24-hour and annual  TSP.
The utilization of a 95 percent efficient S02 scrubber with an
ESP would violate the Colorado 3-hour S02 standard.

(3)   Alternative Stack Heights

     In order to examine the effects of alternative stack heights
on air quality in the Rifle scenario, worst-case dispersion model-
ing was carried out for a 300-foot stack  (lowest stack height con-
sistent with good engineering practice), a 500-foot stack  (an aver-
age or most frequently used height), and a 1000-foot stack  (highest
stack height).  The results of this examination are shown in  Table
6-7.  Emissions from each stack are controlled by an 80  percent ef-
ficient S02 scrubber and a 99 percent efficient ESP.  The 500-foot
stack case was given previously as part of the base case control.

     A comparison of predicted concentrations with applicable stan-
dards shows no violations of NAAQS with a 300-foot stack.  However,
Class II PSD increments for 3-hour S02, 24-hour SO2, and 24-hour
TSP are exceeded with this lowest stack height alternative.   The
base case control also violated Class II PSD increments  for 3-hour
and 24-hour SOa emissions.  Colorado's 3-hour SOa standards are
violated even with a 100-foot stack.

     1 Short-term visibility impacts were investigated using a "box
type" dispersion model.  This particular model assumes that all
emissions occurring during a specified time interval are uniformly
mixed and confined in a box that is capped by a lid or stable layer
aloft.  A lid of 500 meters has been used through the analyses.
SOa conversion rates of 10 percent and 1 percent per hour were
modeled.

                                398
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    TABLE 6-7:
AIR QUALITY IMPACTS  RESULTING FROM ALTERNATIVE
STACK HEIGHTS AT  RIFLE  POWER PLANT
SELECTED STACK HEIGHTS
(feet)
300
500
1,000
APPLICABLE STANDARDS
NAAQS
(primary)
(secondary)
State standards
Class II PSD increments
MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION (ug/m3)
3-HR. SO 2
861
530
204
1,300
100
512
24-HR. SO 2
298
155
30.8
365
50
91
24-HR. TSP
57
30
5.9
260
150
150
37
Ug/m  = micrograms per cubic meter
HR. = hour
S02 = sulfur dioxide
TSP = total suspended particulates
                NAAQS = National Ambient Air Quality
                      Standards
                PSD = prevention of significant
                     deterioration
(4)   Alternative Plant  Sizes

     The results of  an  examination of the effects of alternative
plant sizes on air quality  in the Rifle scenario are given  in Table
6-8.  The hypothesized  1000  MWe power plant will violate  Class II
PSD increments for 3-hour  and 24-hour S02 emissions.  A reduction
of the size of the power plant to 500 MWe would allow the unit to
operate within applicable  federal standards, but it would still
violate the Colorado 3-hour  S02 standard.

(5)   Alternative Plant  Locations

     The complex terrain of  the proposed Rifle power plant  site
aggravates violations of Class II PSD increments during periods
of plume impaction on that  terrain.  Thus, the effect of  reloca-
ting the plant to a  site where the terrain at and around  the plant
is flat was examined.   Sites  along the ridge separating the
Piceance Creek and Roan Creek watersheds  (west-southwest  of the
original site of the Rifle  power plant near Meeker) have  a  low
potential for impaction with elevated terrain.  Table 6-9 shows
the results of this  examination.  Relocation of the Rifle power
plant  (1000 MWe, 80  percent SO2 removal, 99 percent TSP removal)
would allow the facility to operate well within all applicable
standards.
                                400
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(6)   Summary of Power Plant Air Impacts

     During the construction phase of the Rifle power plant, the
frequency of current violations of NAAQS particulate standards will
probably increase.  Once the 1000 MWe power plant is in operation
(80 percent SO2 removal, 99 percent TSP removal, and 500-foot
stack height),  Class II PSD increments for 3-hour and 24-hour SO2
emissions will be violated.  If the plant were equipped with a 95
percent efficient S02 scrubber, all applicable federal standards
could be met.   With an 80 percent efficient S02 scrubber. Class II
PSD increments could also be met by utilization of a 1000-foot
stack, reducing power plant capacity to 500 MWe, or relocating the
plant site to a location with flat terrain.  However, the only al-
ternative which would not violate Colorado's 3-hour S02 standard
is relocating the plant site to flat terrain.

B.  TOSCO II Shale Plant Impacts

     Table 6-10 shows typical and peak concentrations of criteria
pollutants from the proposed TOSCO II oil shale plant.  Predicted
hydrocarbon concentrations exceed the federal primary and state am-
bient air standards for HC.  Class II PSD increments are exceeded
for 24-hour TSP, and Class I PSD increments are exceeded for 3-hour
and 24-hour S02.  Colorado's 3-hour S02 standard is also violated
by peak concentrations.

     The effects of alternative stack heights for a 50,000 bbl/day
TOSCO II plant on ambient air concentrations are shown in Table
6-11.  All stack height alternatives meet applicable federal stan-
dards for S02 concentrations.  Colorado's 3-hour S02 standards are
violated by all but the 300 foot stack height.  None of the three
alternatives can meet the Class II PSD increments for 24-hour TSP
emissions.

     In a worse-case situation, expected to occur infrequently,
the TOSCO II facility may reduce background visibility (presently
about 60 miles) to between 7 and 10 miles, depending on the amount
of S02 converted to particulates in the atmosphere.

<--  In Situ Oil Shale Processing With and Without Surface
    Retorting Impacts

     Tables 6-12 and 6-13 show typical and peak concentrations of
criteria pollutants from the proposed in. situ oil shale processing
facility  (Table 6-12), and from the proposed in situ oil shale
processing facility with a surface retort  (Table 6-13).  Concen-
trations resulting from the processing facility by itself or with
a surface retort violate no NAAQS or Class II PSD increments.
Peak concentrations do violate the Class I PSD increment for 24-
hour particulates.  The processing facility with a retort also
violates Class I PSD increments for 24-hour and 3-hour S02.


                               403
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D.  Scenario Impacts

(1)  To 1980

     Construction of the hypothetical power plant begins  in  1977,
and the plant becomes operational in 1980.  Several  small towns,
such as Rifle and Grand Valley, are expected to increase  their  pop-
ulations as a result of the energy development in this  scenario.1
By 1980, the population of Rifle should increase from  2,500  to
2,950, and Grand Valley should grow from  360 to 700.   These  in-
creases will contribute to increases in pollution concentrations
due solely to urban sources.  Table 6-14  shows predicted  concen-
trations of five criteria pollutants for  Rifle in 1980.   Concen-
trations are estimated at a point in the  center of the  town  and
at a point 3 miles from the center.

     When concentrations from urban sources are added  to  background
levels, the federal HC standard is exceeded.2  No other federal or
state standards are approached by the combination of background
and urban sources by 1980.

(2)  To 1990

     Both the TOSCO II and in situ oil shale facilities are  hypo-
thesized to be constructed by 1990 in the Rifle area.   A  50,000
bbl/day TOSCO II oil shale plant with an  underground oil  shale
mine will become operational in 1985 and  the 57,000  bbl/day
in situ facilities will become operational in 1990.

     If the wind blows directly from one  plant to the  other,  plumes
may interact.  However, maximum concentrations of pollutants  due
to interactions of the plumes from the power plant and  TOSCO  II
plant do not violate any applicable standards at a hypothetical
separation distance of 5 miles.  Concentrations which  result  from
plume interaction are less than those produced by either  plant
under worst-case dispersion conditions.   With the addition of the
oil shale facilities, visibility is expected to decrease  from the
current average of 60 miles in the Rifle  region to 58  miles  by
1990.  In a worst-case dispersion situation, expected  to  occur
infrequently, short-term visibility may be reduced to  between
7 and 10 miles.

     Rifle's predicted population increase to 6,150  and Grand
Valley's increase to 3,900 will cause concentrations of urban
pollutants to reach the levels shown in Table 6-14 at  Rifle,  and
Table 6-15 at Grand Valley.  The Federal  HC standard,  which  will be
exceeded by a factor greater than three,  continues to  be  the  only


     1 Refer to Section 6.4.3.

     2HC standards are violated regularly in most urban areas.

                                408
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-------
ambient standard violated in Rifle by 1990.  Concentrations over
Grand Valley will violate federal and Colorado HC standards.  Al-
though the populations of Rifle and Grand Valley will grow some-
what by the year 2000, the resultant pollution concentrations are
expected to increase less than 5 percent over 1990 values.

E.  Other Air Impacts

     Additional categories of potential air impacts have been ex-
amined; that is, an attempt has been made to identify sources of
pollutants and how energy development may affect levels of these
pollutants during the next 25 years.  These include sulfates, oxi-
dants, fine particulates, long-range visibility, plume opacity,
cooling tower salt deposition, cooling tower fogging and icing,
trace element emissions, and fugitive dust emissions.1  Although
there are likely to be local impacts as a consequence of these
pollutants, both the available data and knowledge about impact
mechanisms are insufficient to allow quantitative, site-specific
analyses.  Thus, these are discussed in a more general, qualita-
tive manner in Chapter 10.

6.2.4  Summary of Air Impacts

     A 1,000 MWe power plant, one 50,000 barrel per day TOSCO II
oil shale plant with an underground mine, one 57,000 bbl/day in
situ oil shale processing facility, and a 50,000 bbl/day oil field
are projected for the Rifle area.  To meet NSPS the power plant
would require 97.3 percent particulate removal, no SO2 removal,
and 15 percent NOX removal.  However, with this level of control,
the plant would violate federal ambient standards for 3-hour and
24-hour S02 as well as Colorado's 24-hour S02 standard.

     With 80 percent SOa and 99 percent particulate removal, peak
concentrations from the plant do not violate federal ambient stan-
dards, but 24-hour SO2 concentrations still exceed the Colorado
24- and 3-hour standards.  With the control, the plant also exceeds
Class II PSD increments for 3-hour and 24-hour S02.  Class II in-
crements can be met by increasing the SO2 scrubber efficiency to
95 percent, by increasing the stack height to 1,000 feet, by de-
creasing plant capacity to 500 MWe, or by relocating the plant to
flat terrain.  Of these alternatives, only the relocation results
in no violation of Colorado's 3-hour SOz standard.

     The 50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II plant exceeds the federal NAAQS
for HC and the Class II PSD increments for 24-hour TSP, but the


     1 Little analytical information is currently available on the
source and formation of nitrates.  See:  Hazardous Materials Ad-
visory Committee.  Nitrogenous Compounds in the Environment, U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency Report No. EPA-SAB-73-001.  Wash-
ington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1973.

                               411
-------
Class II PSD increments can be met through  an  increase  in  the
stack height;

     The i_n situ oil shale processing facilities  (with  or  without
a surface retort) do not violate any NAAQS  or  Class  II  PSD incre-
ments .

     If all facilities are constructed according  to  the hypothe-
sized schedule, population increases in Rifle  and Grand Valley
will add to and create pollution problems.  By 1990, Colorado's
annual S02 and federal and Colorado 3-hour  HC  standards will be
violated.

6.3  WATER IMPACTS

6.3.1  Introduction

     Energy resource development facilities in the Rifle area are
sited in the Upper Colorado River Basin  (UCRB) .   The major water
sources will be the White and Colorado Rivers,  but groundwater will
also supply a significant part of the requirements (see Figure
6-4) .   In the scenario area, annual precipitation varies between
11 and 20 inches per year depending on elevation, with  annual
snowfall varying between 60 and 100 inches.1

     This section identifies the sources and uses of water re-
quired for energy development, the residuals that will  be  pro-
duced, and the water availability and quality  impacts that are
likely to result.

6.3.2  Existing Conditions

A.  Groundwater

     The Rifle area contains both bedrock and  alluvial  aquifers.
Bedrock aquifers are in the combined Uintah and Green River For-
mations and in the Mesa Verde Group.  The Uintah  and Green River
aquifers are separated by the Mahogany Zone, the  principal source
of oil shale.  Since leakage is common through the zone, the two
aquifers behave as if they were parts of the same unit,  although
their water quality differs.  The total volume of water stored in
the Uintah and Green River aquifers has been estimated  to  be about
25 million acre-feet.2  The flow through the aquifers in the
Piceance Creek drainage basin is estimated  to  be  about  36  cubic
          moisture content of one inch of rain is equal  to  approx-
imately fifteen inches of snow.

     2 U.S., Department of the Interior.  Final Environmental  State-
ment for the Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Program, 2 vols.   Washing-
ton, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1973, Vol. I, p.  11-141.
                                412
-------
                                                            o
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feet per second  (cfs) . 1  Most of the recharge  takes place  in out-
crops of the aquifers, and groundwater  flow  is toward  the  center
of the Piceance Basin.  Discharge is mostly  from  springs and into
alluvial aquifers.  Wells penetrating both aquifers should yield
as much as 1,000 gallons per minute  (gpm) .   The total  dissolved
solids (TDS) of water  in the upper aquifer is  generally  less than
1,000 milligrams per  liter (mg/£) , but  the TDS of water  in the
lower aquifer is as high as 40,000 mg/£.2

     Aquifers in the Mesa Verde Group are important to the sce-
nario area because this group is the projected source  of coal for
the power plant.  Very little information is available on  ground
water in the Mesa Verde Group.  These aquifers, many of which are
perched,  occur in discontinuous beds of sandstone that are inter-
spersed in the shales  of the formation.  Records3 indicate that
wells in the Mesa Verde Group produce less than 50 gpm in  the
scenario region, but no data are available on  water quality for
the Mesa Verde aquifers.

     The alluvial aquifers associated with the Colorado  and White
Rivers are recharged by their respective rivers and, therefore,
are highly reliable and productive sources of  water.   The  hydrol-
ogy is much the same for the Parachute  and Piceance Creek  aquifers;
however,  their productivity is relatively low,  and current use  is
limited to providing water for livestock.  Water  quality in the
two creek aquifers is  relatively good with TDS of less than 1,000
mg/& in the upper reaches.  Because of  decreases  in the quality
of discharge from the  bedrock aquifers, groundwater quality in  the
alluvium becomes progressively worse downstream,  eventually reach-
ing 3,000 mg/l TDS.

B.  Surface Water

     As shown in Figure 6-4, the White  and Colorado Rivers are  the
major surface-water supply sources for  energy  development  in the
Rifle scenario.  Flow  allocations in both of these rivers  are gov-
erned by the Colorado  River Compact,4 the Upper Colorado River
             John B., et al.  Simulated Effects of_ Oil-Shale  Devel
opment on the Hydrology of Piceance Basin, Colorado,  U.S.',  Geolog-
ical Survey Professional Paper 908.  Washington, D.C.:   Government
Printing Office, 1974, p. 40.

     2 Ibid. , p. 40.

     3Colorado Land Use Commission.  Colorado Land Use  Map  Folio.
Denver, Colo.:  Colorado Land Use Commission, 1974.

     ''Colorado River Compact of  1922,  42  Stat.  171,  45  Stat.  1064,
declared effective by Presidential Proclamation, 46  Stat.  3000
 (1928) .
                                414
-------
Basin Compact,1 and the Mexican Treaty of 1944,2 as well as the
laws of the State of Colorado.  Colorado's  share of the flow  in
the UCRB is determined with reference to the natural  flow of  the
Colorado River at Lees Ferry, Arizona.  This flow has been esti-
mated to be from 5.25 to  6.3 million acre-feet  per year  (acre-
ft/yr); the most widely accepted estimate is that made by the
Department of Interior at  5.8 million acre-ft/yr.3  Using that
value, Colorado's share of the flow is about 3  million acre-ft/yr.
Near Rifle, the Colorado  River has an average flow of 2.8 million
acre-ft/yr, and the White  River averages 455,000 acre-ft/yr.  How-
ever, not all of the flow  in the Colorado River near  Rifle or in
the White River is available for future energy  development.   Con-
siderable uncertainty exists over how demands for increased water
allocations for agricultural irrigation, municipal needs, instream
needs, and other legal commitments and uses will be handled.

     Present uses of UCRB water in Colorado are shown in Table
6-16.  The main use is for irrigation, but a significant portion
is diverted to the San Juan River and to municipal use in the
Denver area.  Although about 745,000 acre-ft/yr from the Cplorado
River system are estimated to be available for  the State of Colo-
rado to develop1* not all of this will be available for energy in
the Rifle area.

     Water quality in the White and Colorado Rivers is shown  in
Table 6-17.  Also shown are water quality data  for Piceance and
Parachute Creeks, both of which may be impacted by energy develop-
ment.  Water quality is generally good in the White and Colorado
Rivers and in Parachute Creek, but TDS and hardness levels are
high in Piceance Creek, primarily due to bicarbonates and sodium.
     1Upper Colorado River Basin Compact of 1948, Pub. L. 81-37,
63 Stat. 31 (1949).

     2Treaty between the United States of America and Mexico Re-
specting Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers
and of the Rio Grande, February 3, 1944, 59 Stat. 1219 (1945),
Treaty Series No. 994.

     3U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage-
ment Team.  Report on Water for Energy in the Upper Colorado River
Basin.  Denver, Colo.:  Department of the Interior, 1974, p. 11.

     ''U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Westwide Study Report on Critical Water Problems Facing the Eleven
Western States.  Washington, D.C.:  Government "Printing Office,
1975, p. 261.

                               415
-------
    TABLE 6-16:
WATER USE IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
PORTION OF THE STATE OF COLORADO
(in thousands of acre-feet)a


Estimated 1974 Water Use
Estimated exports
Irrigation
Municipal and industrial
including rural
Minerals
Thermal electric
Recreation fish and wildlife
Other
Consumptive conveyance losses
Reservoir evaporation
Total depletions0
GREEN RIVER
SUBBASIN

0
89
2

4
10
3
5
22
2
137
UPPER MAIN
STEM SUBBASIN

614b
779
14

8
4
8
11
175
37
1,650
 U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Westwide Study Report on Critical Water Problems Facing the
Eleven Western State's"!  Washington, D.C. :  Government Printing
Office, 1975, p. 260-261.

 Includes intersubbasin transfer to San Juan River and inter-
basin transfer to the Denver, Colorado area.
Q
 Includes Colorado's remaining share of mainstream reservoir
evaporation
 6.3.3  Factors Producing  Impacts

     The water requirements of and effluents  from energy  facilities
 cause water  impacts.  These requirements and  effluents are  iden-
 tified in  this section  for each type of energy  facility.  Asso-
 ciated population increases also increase municipal water demand
 and sewage effluent; these are presented in Section 6.3.4 for
 the scenario which  includes all facilities constructed according
 to the scenario schedule.
                                416
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A.  Water Requirements of Energy Facilities

     The water requirements for energy facilities hypothesized  in
the Rifle area are shown in Table 6-18.  Two sets of data  are pre-
sented.  The Energy Resource Development System  (ERDS) data  are
based on secondary sources, including impact statements, Federal
Power Commission docket filings, and recently published data ac-
cumulations,1 and can be considered typical requirement levels.
The Water Purification Associates data are from  a study on mini-
mum water use requirements and take into account opportunities
to recycle water on site as well as the moisture content of  the
coal being used and local meteorological conditions.2  The man-
ner in which water is consumed by these facilities is shown  in
Figure 6-5.  Cooling consumes the most water in  power generation,
while for oil shale processing, cooling, and solid waste disposal
consume comparable amounts.

     As indicated in Table 6-18, the 1,000 MWe coal-fired  power
plant at Rifle requires 9,400 acre-ft/yr of water, using a high
wet cooling technology.  The water requirements  of the power plant
equipped with an intermediate wet cooling system  (i.e., combin-
ation of wet and dry towers) are 2,786 acre-ft/yr, a reduction  in
water use of some 71 percent.  For the 50,000 barrel TOSCO II oil
shale retort water requirements are 4,650 to 9,272 acre-ft/yr.3
The water requirements of the in. situ oil shale  facility are 4,360
acre-ft/yr without surface retort, and 5,663 acre-ft/yr with a  sur-
face retort.1*  The type of cooling chosen is often determined by


     JThe ERDS is based on data drawn from University of Oklahoma,
Science and Public Policy Program.  Energy Alternatives;   A  Com-
parative Analysis.  Washington, B.C.:'  Government Printing Office,
1975; and Radian Corporation.  A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study, Final Report, 3 vols. and Executive  Summary.   Austin,
Tex.:  Radian Corporation, 1975.  These data are published in
White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West:   Energy Resource
Development Systems Report.  Washington, D.C.:   U.S., Environ-
mental Protection Agency, forthcoming.

     2Gold, Harris, et al.  Water Requirements for Steam-Electric
Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western  United
States.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental  Protection Agency,
1977.

     3The difference between these two values is the exclusion  of
mine dust control and spent shale reclamation water requirements
in the low value and the inclusion of it in the  high value.  See
footnote "e" of Table 6-18.

     4Both of these values include water for mine dust control  and
the 5,663 value includes water for spent shale reclamation.  See
footnotes "f" and "g" of Table 6-18.

                                419
-------
          TABLE 6-18:
WATER REQUIREMENTS  FOR  ENERGY
FACILITIES  AT  RIFLE
 (acre-feet  per  year)
TECHNOLOGY3
Power Generation
(1,000 MWe)
Oil Shale Retort TOSCO II
(50,000 bbl/day)
Modified In Situ Oil Shale
(57,000 bbl/day)
Modified In Situ Oil Shale
With Surface Retort
(57,000 bbl/day)
Oil Well Field
(50,000 bbl/day)

Power Plant
ERDSb
WET COOLING

9,400
9,272e
4,360f
5,663s
2,500-4,100h
WPAC COMBINATIONS
OF WET AND DRY COOLING
HIGH WET

9,494
NC
NC
NC
NC
INTERMEDIATE WET

2,786
6,46s1
NC
NC
NC
Cost range in which indicated cooling
technology is most economic
(dollars per thousand gallons)
NC
< 3.65-5.90
>3. 65-5. 90
ERDS = Energy Resource  Development Systems
       Report
WPA = Water Purification Associates
MWe = megawatt-electric
                  NC  = not considered
                  bbl/day = barrels per day
                  < = less than
                  •> = greater than
aThese values assume an annual  load  factor of 75 percent in the case of the power plant
and 90 percent in the case  of  the oil shale facilities.

bWhite, Irvin L., et al.   Energy From the West:  Energy Resource Development Systems
Report.  Washington, D.C.:U.S.,Environmental Protection Agency,forthcoming.

cGold, Harris, et al.  Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic
Fuel Plants in the Western  United States  .Washington,D.C.:U.S.,Environmental Protec-
tion Agency,  1977.

 Combinations of  wet and wet-dry cooling were obtained by examining the economics of cool-
ing alternatives  for the steam turbine condensers.  In the high wet case, these are all
wet cooled; in the intermediate case, wet cooling handles ten percent of the load on the
turbine condensers.

eOf the total 9,272, 891 is for dust control in the mining operations; 7,301 is needed for
the retort; and 1,100 is used  for reclaiming and revegetating the spent shale.

^Of the total 4,360, 730 is used for dust control in the mining operations and 3,630 is
needed for the in situ retort.

sOf the 5,663, 547 is for dust control in the mining operations; 2,722 is needed for the
in situ retort and 2,081 for the surface retort; and 313 is used for reclaiming and re-
vegetating the spent shale.

hThis represents  the water requirements of a water flood in the oil field.

iThis value represents the water requirements  for a TOSCO II retort (4,653 acre-ft) and
water for spent shale disposal (1,815 acre-ft).  The engineering design for that system
calls for integration of some  dry cooling, thus it is  termed intermediate wet.
                                         420
-------
 0)
 to
 (D
 a,
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 a)
 M
 o
 o
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10

 9_

 8.

 7.


 6.

 5.


 4^


 3_

 2_


 1-
            EKDS
                  WPA-H
                                     ERDS
Cooling Tower Evaporation

Consumed in the Process

Solids Disposal and Other
D
                          WPA-I
                  Power
               Generation
               (1,000  MWe)
                             Oil Shale Retort
                                 TOSCO II
                             (50,000 bbl/day)
      FIGURE 6-5:
             WATER CONSUMPTION FOR ENERGY FACILITIES
             IN THE  RIFLE  SCENARIO
ERDS = Energy Resource  Development System
WPA-H = Water Purification  Associates-High Wet Cooling
WPA-I = Water Purification  Associates-Intermediate Wet Cooling
MWe = megawatt-electric
bbl/day = barrels per day

Source:  The ERDS data  is from White,  Irvin L. et al.  Energy
From the West;  Energy  Resource Development Systems Report.
Washington,D.C.:U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forth-
coming.  The WPA data is from Gold,  Harris, et al.  Water Require-
ments .for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel
Plants in the Western United  States.   Washington, D.C.:  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency,  1977.  The oil shale retort
includes water used  for spent shale  disposal.
                                421
-------
water availability and price.  The current price of water  in the
Southwest is 3 to 30£ per thousand gallons.  If water costs in-
crease above a range of $3.60 to $5.90.per thousand gallons, it be-
comes more profitable to use less water by employing intermediate
wet cooling for the power plant.  However, which cooling  system
is chosen may depend on other factors  in addition to economics.
If intermediate wet cooling is used, even though water  costs $0.25
per thousand gallons, the cost of electricity would increase 1 to
2 cents per kilowatt hour.

     As shown in Figure 6-4, water for the power plant  will be
taken from the White River near Meeker.  Water that has been re-
leased from a new upstream off-channel impoundment will be with-
drawn from the Colorado River near Grand Valley to supply  the
50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant.  This  new impoundment will be
filled with flood flows from the Colorado River.  The 57,000 bbl/
day oil shale plant will use as process water groundwater  from
dewatering the oil shale mines.

B.  Effluents from Energy Facilities

     Table 6-19 lists expected amounts of solid effluents  produced
by energy facilities in the Rifle scenario.  The greatest  amount
of solid effluents will be produced by the 50,000 bbl/day  TOSCO II
facility, more than 49,000 tons per day.  The 1,000 MWe power plant
is expected to produce less than 700 tons of solid effluents per
day (assuming average load factors).1  The TOSCO II plant  will pro-
duce the highest volume of dry and wet solids, more than  48,000
tons of dry solids, primarily spent shale, and slightly less than
1,000 tons of wet solids per day.  The power plant will have the
highest volume of dissolved solids, 12 tons per day.  Effluents
from the modified in. situ process are  essentially unknown.  If
the mined shale is retorted, the spent shale will be produced at
a rate of 27,000 tons per day.

     In the power plant and TOSCO II plant, dissolved solids are
present in the ash blowdown effluent,  the demin.eralized waste ef-
fluent, and the flue gas desulfurization effluent.2  The principle
constituents of wastewater which appear as dissolved solids are
calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate, and chlorine.


     !The average load factor for the  power plant is 75 percent
and TOSCO II facility is 90 percent.

     2Demineralization is a method of  preparing water for  use in
boilers; it produces a waste stream composed of chemicals  present
in the source water.  The ash blowdown stream is the water used to
remove bottom ash from the boiler.  Bottom ash removal  is  done via
a wet sluicing system using cooling tower blowdown water.  Thus,
the dissolved solids content of that stream is composed of chemi-
cals from the' ash and cooling water.

                                422
-------
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                                     423
-------
     Wet solids from the electric power plant are in the form of
flue gas sludge, bottom ash, and cooling water treatment waste
sludge.  Calcium carbonate  (CaC03) and calcium sulfate  (CaS04)
are the primary constituents of flue gas sludge.  The bottom ash
is primarily oxides of aluminum and silicon.  CaC03 is the princi-
pal constituent of cooling water treatment waste.  In all cases,
the amount of cooling water treatment waste is very small, com-
pared to the bottom ash and flue gas sludge.  The quantity of wet
solids in the flue gas desulfurization sludge depends on the ef-
ficiency of the facility's scrubbers (80 percent removal has been
assumed here), and on the SOa content of the flue gas.  Dry solid
waste produced by the power plant is primarily fly ash composed
of oxides of aluminum, silicon, and iron.

     The water content of the effluent stream accounts for one per-
cent of the total water requirements of the power plant, and from
21 to 31 percent of the total water requirements of the TOSCO II
oil shale retort.  (Data in Table 6-19 compared with data in Table
6-18).

     Dissolved and wet solids will be sent to evaporative holding
ponds and later deposited in landfills.  Dry solids are treated
with water to prevent dusting and deposited in a landfill.1  The
spent shale is expected to be dumped into canyons, compacted, and
revegetated.

6.3.4  Impacts

     This section describes water impacts which result from the
mines and conversion facilities individually, and from a scenario
which includes construction of all facilities according to the
hypothesized scenario schedule.2  The water requirements and im-
pacts associated with expected population increases are included
in the scenario impact description.

A.  Mine Impacts

(1)  Underground Coal Mine

     The coal mine for the power plant will use surface-water
sources and should not result in the depletion of any regional
groundwater aquifers.  However, the mine openings will probably
intercept some of the groundwater flow in the Mesa Verde Group,


     lThe environmental problems of solid waste disposal in land-
fills are discussed in Chapter 10.

     2Because the water requirements of and effluents from the oil
well field are small in comparison to those of the power plant and
oil shale facilities, water impacts of the oil well field are not
considered in this section.

                                424
-------
and any associated dewatering operations could also cause deple-
tion of local aquifers, particularly if the aquifers are perched.

     Since the coal mine will be located on a natural watershed
divide, runoff affected by the mining process can be trapped with-
out disturbing natural surface-water drainage.  Also, because this
is an underground mine, only a small area will be needed for sur-
face facilities that cause changes in water quality.  Water af-
fected by these facilities will be trapped and introduced into
the water treatment facilities at the power plant.

     The extent of the impacts will increase as expanded mine
openings intercept more aquifers and/or remove more of the original
aquifer, resulting in greater interruption of groundwater flow.
Also, mine subsidence may begin to set in and may lead to such ef-
fects as topographic and drainage pattern changes, disruption of
groundwater flow in the overburden, and possibly mixing of fresh
and saline aquifers.

(2)  Underground Oil Shale Mines

     The oil shale mine will have several impacts on the bedrock
groundwater aquifers.1  Interception of the flow will cause sev-
eral springs and seeps to dry up, and the recharge to alluvial
aquifers will also be reduced.  Mining operations will deplete the
bedrock aquifers by 420 acre-ft/yr  (0.58 cfs), which will lower
the local water table below the bed of Parachute Creek and thus
eliminate its base flow.2

B.  Energy Conversion Facilities impacts

     Water impacts may be divided into those occurring during con-
struction and during operation, and those occurring because of the
water requirements of facilities and because of effluents from the
facilities.

     Construction activities at the conversion facilities will re-
move vegetation and disturb the soil.  These activities have an
effect on surface-water quality.  The major effect will be in-
creases in the sediment load of local runoff.  Maintenance areas
and petroleum products storage facilities will also be needed to


     1Weeks, John B., et al.  Simulated Effects of Oil-Shale Devel-
opment on the Hydrology of Piceance Basin, Colorado, U.S. Geolog-
ical Survey Professional Paper 908.  Washington, B.C.:  Government
Printing Office, 1974, p. 4.

     2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.
Draft Environmental Impact Statement;  Proposed Development of Oil
Shale Resources by the Colony Development Operation in Colorado.
Washington, D.C.:  Bureau of Land Management, 1975, p. 34.

                               425
-------
support construction equipment.  Areas for the storage of other
construction-related materials (such as aggregate for a concrete
batch plant) may be required as well.  All these facilities have
the potential for contaminating runoff.  Runoff control methods
will be instituted at all the potential sources of contaminants.
Runoff will be channeled to a holding pond for settling, reuse,
and evaporation.  Because the supply of water to this pond is in-
termittent, evaporation may claim most of the water, but some of
the water may be used for dust control.

(1)  Power Plant

     The operation of a 1,000 MWe power plant facility will require
from 2,800 to 9,500 acre-feet of surface water annually (see Table
6-18).  This water will come from the White River near Meeker.  A
28-acre surface reservoir to be constructed at the plant site will
contain a 21-day supply of water.  This water will be used during
extremely low-flow periods in the White River, but the plant will
generally not draw water solely from the reservoir for more than
14 consecutive days.  At full load, the plant requires approxi-
mately 20 cubic feet of water per second and this is about 14 per-
cent of the lowest recorded flow in the White River at Meeker.

     Since water for the coal-fired power plant will be obtained
from surface-water sources, excessive withdrawals and aquifer de-
pletions are not expected to be major problems.  In fact, leakage
from fresh-water storage ponds should have the beneficial effect
of recharging local perched aquifers with high quality water that
will tend to dilute lower quality water.  Lower quality recharge
would be expected from cooling tower and sanitary effluent ponds
and from scrubber sludge and ash disposal sites.  This may result
in contamination of local Mesa Verde aquifers.

     Approximate quantities of effluents expected from the opera-
tion of the power plant are given in Table 6-19.  These effluents
will be discharged into clay-lined retention ponds to reduce the
potential for pollution of local surface waters or groundwaters,
although some leakage from these ponds could occur and pollute
groundwater.

(2)  50,000 bbl/day Oil Shale Plant

     Since water for operation of the 50,000 bbl/day oil shale
plant will be taken from surface water, the water requirements of
this plant will have minimal negative impact on groundwater sup-
plies.  Although water storage ponds at the site may provide bene-
ficial recharge to the bedrock aquifers, leakage from effluent dis-
posal ponds may lower groundwater quality.  If the spent (pro-
cessed) oil shale from the 50,000 bbl/day plant is deposited in
gullies as planned, infiltrating precipitation and water added for
revegetation may leach trace elements and dissolved salts into both


                               426
-------
bedrock and alluvial aquifers (the latter by pollution of stream-
flow which becomes recharge to the alluvial aquifers).

     The water supply system envisioned for the 50,000 bbl/day oil
shale plant on Parachute Creek will have little effect on surface
flows.  Water is postulated to be released from an upstream im-
poundment and removed near the confluence of the Colorado River
and Parachute Creek.  The impoundment will be offstream and will be
filled with flood flows from the Colorado River.  There should be
no measurable adverse environmental impact from this water supply
system provided the impoundment design is adequate to handle ex-
treme low-flow periods.  If the plant were to withdraw process
water without a corresponding impoundment release, the plant re-
quirement of 12.7 cfs is equivalent to 1.8 percent of the minimum
low flow of record near Cameo, Colorado1 (the closest gauging sta-
tion with adequate records).  Even during such an extreme event,
changes caused by the process withdrawals would be small.

     The large areas used for spent shale disposal will contribute
to the increases in surface runoff as will the process facilities
and roads.  Also, the oil shale disposal piles may become semi-
impermeable until vegetation has been established, which could in-
crease runoff as much as 1.4 acre-feet per acre of disposal pile.2
However, this increase in runoff will appear as a loss of flow in
the local streams during the life of the plant because the water
will be caught by retention facilities and treated for use as pro-
cess make-up water.  These facilities will cause a portion of the
natural watershed to be effectively removed from the basin, thus
causing the flow decrease in local streams.  After vegetation is
established and runoff quality has been shown to be acceptable,
the retention facility will be deactivated and runoff will be re-
turned to these streams.

(3)  In Situ Oil Shale Facility

     Potential sources of surface water impacts from the in situ
oil shale operation in the Rifle scenario include sediment deliv-
ery, leaching of dissolved solids, and leaching of toxic substances
into the Piceance Creek watershed.  Runoff retention facilities
will be used around shale piles, and dams in nearby gulches should
be adequate to protect surface water systems from runoff.  However,


     ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.
Draft Environmental Impact Statement:  Proposed Development of Oil
Shale Resources by the Colony Development Operation in Colorado.
Washington, D.C.:  Bureau of Land Management, 1975, p. 34.

     2Weeks, John B., et al.  Simulated Effects of Oil Shale Devel-
opment on the Hydrology of Piceance Basin, Colorado, U.S. Geolog-
ical Survey Professional Paper 908.Washington, D.C.:  Government
Printing Office, 1974.

                               427
-------
complete protection will not be possible during construction of
these dams.  After diversion and retention facilities are com-
pleted in 1982, pollution of the watershed will be markedly reduced.
Water tapped by these facilities will be used for shale moisturi-
zation, treated and recycled in the retorting process, or evapora-
ted in clay-lined pits.   The result will be minimal quality and
quantity impacts upon surface waters.  There is a possibility of
mine water defluoridation and discharge into Piceance Creek.  De-
fluoridation would bring the mine water within EPA drinking water
standards, and would augment the watershed in times of low flows,
arid reduce the fluoride concentrations in the creek slightly.
Withdrawals of water from the Colorado River are expected to be
minimal and will have a negligible impact on water quality and
availability in that basin.  Because of the mine dewatering oper-
ations, a reduction of groundwater discharge to streams will occur
in the Piceance and Yellow Creek Basins.

     The underground mine and associated surface facilities are
likely to affect both upper and lower aquifers during construc-
tion, operation, and postoperation phases.  During the construc-
tion phase, leaching of shale piles, and disposal of excess water
from dewatering and irrigation of the shale piles could result in
a groundwater contamination problem.  During the operational phase,
shale oil and related organic and inorganic compounds could all be
considered contaminants that could enter the groundwater systems.
If the mined oil shale is retorted at the surface, it will pose a
potential threat to the groundwater system.  Leaching and migra-
tion of leachate to groundwater systems are not likely to occur
unless the piles become saturated or nearly saturated.  The likeli-
hood of spent shale leachate reaching groundwater systems will de-
pend on whether excess mine water is disposed of by irrigation of
the shale and, if so, the rate of application of this irrigation
water.  Petroleum-like products from the surface operations of the
in siJbu facility may also pose water quality problems for ground-
water at the site due to leakage or spills.  This problem can be
minimized by proper operation and maintenance of equipment, and
prompt cleanup of any spills or leaks.

     After the operations cease, the in situ retorts may become
saturated by the water table, releasing contaminants into the
water and lowering water quality.   The higher permeability of
the retort area can also be expected to affect the flow relation-
ship of the upper and lower bedrock aquifers.  The combustion of
the oil shale in these retorts may mobilize trace elements, or-
ganic substances, or other potentially hazardous materials that
could be subsequently leached by groundwater after operations
cease and the water table reestablishes itself.  Whether the high
temperatures used in the retort will increase or decrease the
availability of trace elements or other contaminants is unknown.
The potential for groundwater contamination by trace elements is
currently under investigation.


                                428
-------
       TABLE 6-20:  EXPECTED MUNICIPAL WATER REQUIREMENTS
                    FOR  INCREASED  POPULATION  IN  THE
                    RIFLE REGION3
                     (acre-feet per year)
LOCATION
Rifle
Grand Valley
Glenwood Springs
Rural
Meeker
Rangely
Grand Junction
1975b
364
29
615
1,308
374
374
8,386
1980
65
30
26
110
800
480
782
1990
530
280
80
140
880
380
2,665
2000
575
290
119
205
950
410
3,898
           Based  on  130  percent  of  reported wastewater
           flow.   See Table  6-22.

           1975 data are estimated  municipal water usage.
           Data  for 1980, 1990, and  2000  represent increased
           water usage over  the 1975 requirements.
C.  Scenario Impacts

     Water impacts resulting from  interactions  among  the  hypothe-
sized facilities and water impacts resulting  from  associated  pop-
ulation increases are discussed in this section.

     Water requirements for direct use by these hypothesized  en-
ergy facilities  (assuming high wet cooling) increase  from approxi-
mately 9,500 acre-ft/yr in 1980, when the power plant is  operating,
to 24,000 acre-ft/yr by 1990, when the power  plant and both oil
shale plants are in operation.

     The increased population associated with energy  development
will require additional water supply facilities.  An  estimated to-
tal of 17,900 acre-ft/yr of water will be1 required by the year
2000.  This requirement has been broken down  by municipality  in
Table 6-20. 1  Water for municipal use will probably be withdrawn


     Population estimates do not include increases caused by
secondary industries.
                                429
-------
from Colorado's allocation of the Colorado River either through
a direct intake of river water or from wells in alluvial aquifers.
In either case, permits must be obtained from the State of Colorado
to withdraw this water.

     Rural populations are assumed to use individual,  on-site waste
disposal facilities (septic tanks and drainfields).   The urban pop-
ulation will require waste treatment facilities.  The current sta-
tus of wastewater treatment facilities in the municipalities most
affected by energy development activities is indicated in Table
6-21.  The wastewater generated by the population increases asso-
ciated with energy development is shown in Table 6-22.

     Based on current capacities of treatment facilities, all the
communities impacted in this scenario, except Glenwood Springs and
Grand Junction, will require new wastewater treatment facilities
to accommodate new population due to energy developments.  New fa-
cilities will need to use "best practicable" waste treatment tech-
nologies to conform to 1983 standards, and must make allowance for
recycling or zero discharge of pollutants to meet 1985 standards.1
The 1985 standards could be met by using effluents from the waste
treatment facility for industrial process make-up water or for
irrigating local farmland.

(1)  To 1980

     The only facilities to be in operation by 1980 are the 1,000
MWe power plant and its associated underground coal mine.  The
water requirement for the power plant will be approximately 9,500
acre-ft/yr, assuming high wet cooling and a 75 percent load factor
(Table 6-18).  This requirement is about 2 percent of the average
flow and 8 percent of the minimum flow of the White River near
Meeker.2  Intermediate wet cooling could reduce water use by 71
percent.

     The effects of energy development-related population growth
on area municipal facilities in terms of increased water supply
and wastewater treatment demand are shown in Tables 6-20 and 6-21.

     Small communities will be significantly affected by large
increases in water and wastewater service requirements.  Updating
treatment facilities to meet expected population demands may cost
more per capita in a small municipality than in a large city.
Under present law, pollutants from the sewage treatment plant may
	<	

      federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, §§
101,  301; 33 U.S.C.A.  §§ 1251, 1311  (Supp. 1976).

      2Flow values obtained from Table 6-17; minimum flow values
in cfs converted to acre-ft/yr by multiplying by 724.5 acre-ft/
yr/cfs.

                                430
-------
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                                     432
-------
discharge to surface waters until 1985.  If a reliable  treatment
scheme can be devised, there should be no significant pollution
from this practice.  Where population growth occurs  in  rural  areas
having no centralized treatment facilities, groundwater quality
may be decreased by septic tank and drainfield systems,  but the
substrate -has a natural capacity for renovation if septic tank
density becomes too great.

     Other environmental effects to be expected as a result of pop-
ulation growth include a decrease in surface-water quality stem-
ming from urban runoff.  If contaminated runoff recharges aquifers,
then groundwater quality may be affected as well.  Leachates  from
additional municipal solid waste disposal sites can  also contam-
inate both groundwater and surface water.

(2)  To 1990

     The 50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II oil shale plant will begin opera-
tions in 1985.  Construction of the in situ oil shale facility will
begin in 1984, and the plant will  go on-line in 1990.   The 1,000
MWe power plant will continue operation throughout this period.

     By 1990, the mine for the TOSCO II plant will have disturbed
375 acres of land which will result in impoundment of runoff  water.
The water for the retort, 4,650 acre-ft/yr, will be  taken from the
Colorado River.  This requirement is 0.2 percent of  the average
flow of the Colorado River above Grand Valley and 2.2 percent of
the minimum flow.

     Municipal water supply requirements will have to be met
through increases in service systems and treatment facilities.
The quantities of the increases in water supply and  wastewater are
shown in Table 6-20 and 6-22.

     If municipalities install sewage treatment facilities that
meet the goal of zero discharge of pollutants by 1985,  the in-
creased municipal effluent will have little effect on groundwater
systems.  A possible exception is excess leakage from municipal
sewer lines that could contaminate shallow aquifers.  Population
growth in rural areas may also have an impact on aquifers.  In
areas of high population density where septic tank and  drainfield
disposal methods are used, the cumulative effect of  the septic
tanks may exceed the capacity of the soils to renovate  the drain-
field effluent.  The result could be the direct infiltration  of
effluents into aquifers, thereby lowering groundwater quality.
Other sources of contamination for both surface and  groundwater
are urban runoff and leachate from solid waste disposal sites.

(3)  To 2000

     The impacts of the in situ oil shale facility,  TOSCO II  oil
shale plant, and the coal mine and power plant will  continue  as in

                                433
-------
the preceding decade.  Continued operations at the coal mine,
in situ oil shale mine, and the 50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant
are expected to increase the effects on the depletion of bedrock
aquifers.  Water added to the spent shale during revegetation,  as
well as natural precipitation, will leach trace elements, dis-
solved salts, and other contaminants from the shale.  This  con-
taminated water may then recharge the lower Green River aquifer,
which has low water quality (high TDS) even in natural conditions.
As mining activities increase, recharge into Yellow and Piceance
Creeks (Figure 6-1) will be further diminished, and water quality
will be lowered in the groundwater recharge areas.

     Because of Public Law 92-500, which has a goal of zero dis-
charge of pollutants by 1985, the only surface-water effects  asso-
ciated with effluent disposal at the energy facilties will  be the
result of unplanned occurrences.  Ponds used for the ultimate dis-
posal of cooling-tower blowdown, sanitary effluent, and scrubber
sludge will continue to fill.  The associated water will be evap-
orated or may leak into the pond liner material, carrying some of
the dissolved constituents with it.  There will be the continuing
possibility that some harmful constituents will reach the ground-
water system and cause a degradation of both surface and ground-
water supplies.  Clay absorption in the pond liner or, where  it
occurs, in the clay substrate will reduce the TDS content.

     Increased urban and rural population growth in the 1990-2000
decade will produce qualitatively similar but quantitatively
greater effects as compared with the preceding decade.  Municipal
facilities will experience progressively increasing demands for
water supply and wastewater treatment  (see Tables 6-20 and  6-22).
Water supplies will continue to be charged against Colorado's
share of Upper Basin surface water, whether taken from streams or
alluvial aquifers.  Wastewater treatment facilities will be changed
from discharging to local streams to recycling or land application
of effluents.  Recycled water may help diminish the water supply
demands placed on local sources by hypothesized energy development
facilities.

(4)  After 2000

     After operations cease, the oil shale and coal mines may sub-
side over the long term, resulting in minor changes in topography
and drainage patterns as well as changes in groundwater flow  pat-
terns in the overburden.  In addition, the coal mine may produce
acid water.  However, insufficient groundwater data preclude  the
evaluation of this potential problem.  The low-sulfur content of
the coal may reduce this probability.

     After the plants are decommissioned, the facilities will re-
main.  Leakage from effluent disposal ponds may continue to re-
charge and contaminate groundwater systems long after operations
cease unless the sites are properly maintained.  Likewise,  the

                                434
-------
dikes around the evaporative ponds may lose their protective vege-
tation and erode, and the dikes may be breached as a result.  Sub-
sequently, materials within the pond site will erode and enter the
surface-water system.

     As municipal wastewater plants are upgraded, the quality of
effluents will improve and the impacts on groundwater will  lessen.
Further, as rural areas become more densely populated, more of
these areas will switch from septic tanks to municipal wastewater
treatment systems.  The decreased septic tank load will alleviate
the associated groundwater degradation problem.  However, those
areas remaining on septic tanks will pose a continued hazard to
local groundwater systems.

6.3.5  Summary of Water Impacts

     Water impacts are caused by:   (1) the water requirements of
and effluents from the energy facilities,  (2)  the water require-
ments of and wastewater generated by associated population  in-
creases, and  (3) the coal and oil shale mining processes.

     Water sources postulated for the Rifle scenario facilities
are the White River near Meeker, the Colorado River near Grand
Valley, and groundwater from mine dewatering.   Depending on
whether the energy facilities are high wet cooled, the water re-
quirement in acre-ft/yr ranges from 2,786 to 9,494 for the  power
plant, 6,470 to 9,270 for the 50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant, and
4,360 to 5,660 acre-ft/yr for the in_ situ oil shale facility.
Operation of all the facilities could require as much as 24,000
acre-ft/yr.  The use of intermediate wet cooling at the expected
load factors could reduce this demand by a total of 54 percent.
Little water is saved by intermediate cooling of oil shale  pro-
cesses  (29 percent), but savings are substantial  (71 percent)
when intermediate wet cooling is used on the power plant.   The
White River near Meeker, the hypothesized source of water for the
power plant, has an average flow of 450,000 acre-ft/yr and  a mini-
mum flow of 173 cfs. 1  The Colorado River above Grand Valley, the
hypothesized source of water for the 50,000 bbl/day oil shale
plant, has an average flow of 1,955,000 acre-ft/yr and minimum
flow of 286 cfs.2  The impact of surface water withdrawal on water
availability is not a major local issue, especially for the Colo-
rado River.  One of the most significant impacts will be the in-
terception of groundwater flow in the Piceance Creek Basin  by the
in situ oil shale facility.
          perspective and comparison with the water requirements
of energy facilities, 173 cfs is equivalent to 125,000 acre-ft/yr.

     2Two-hundred and eight-six cfs is equivalent to 207,000
acre-ft/yr.

                               435
-------
     Effluents from the energy facilities, in tons per day,  aver-
age 641 from the power plant, and 49,300 from the 50,000 bbl/day
oil shale plant.  Effluents from the oil shale retorts are pri-
marily spent shale.  Over the long term, spent shale deposits  are
likely to have an impact on both groundwater and surface water.
The hydrology of the upper parts of the affected stream basins
will be changed by filling gullies with spent shale.  After  reveg-
etation, natural precipitation will continue to leach trace  ele-
ments.  Some of this leachate may recharge bedrock aquifers, and
some will surface at the toe of the piles and enter surface-water
systems.  Runoff from spent shale piles will be trapped and  cycled
for process water, but only for the life of the plants.  Waste dis-
posal ponds at the various energy conversion plant sites will  also
pose a long-term pollution potential to both groundwater and sur-
face water systems.  The berms that impound the ponds may ulti-
mately be destroyed by erosion, and the pond contents  (soluble
solids, ash, toxic metals, and other wastes) may be released to
surface water.  The pond liners are designed to be effective for
the life of the plant, but they may not prevent escape of the pond
contents over the long term.  Leaching of pond contents would re-
sult in infiltration into the subsurface and recharge to local
aquifers.  If the vertical permeability is low, the leachate will
migrate laterally, discharge into stream basins, and ultimately
contaminate surface streams.

     Municipal water use in the scenario area will increase  to
17,900 acre-ft/yr by the year 2000, due to increased population
associated with energy development.  The additional water for mu-
nicipal use will probably be withdrawn from the Colorado River.
Increased population will also cause wastewater increases, total-
ing 4.51 million gallons per day by 2000.  Scenario municipalities
listed in Table 6-23, other than Glenwood Springs and Grand  Junc-
tion, will require new wastewater treatment facilities for the in-
creased wastewater generated.

     The coal mine for the power plant will use surface-water
sources and should not result in the depletion of any regional
groundwater aquifers.  However, the openings of the coal and oil
shale mines and associated dewatering operations may cause aquifer
depletion.  Interception of the Parachute Creek and the Piceance
Creek aquifers by the mine for the oil shale plant may result  in
the elimination of their base flows.  Coal mine subsidence may
occur and lead to such effects as topographic and drainage pat-
tern changes, disruption of groundwater flow in the overburden,
and possibly mixing of fresh and saline aquifers.

     Finally, runoff will decrease during facility construction,
and will remain measurably less than current levels after the  fa-
cilities are completed due to trapping of this runoff to guard
against water quality deterioration.
                                436
-------
6.4  SOCIAL AND, ECONOMIC IMPACTS

6.4.1  Introduction

     The social and economic effects resulting from energy devel-
opments in the Rifle scenario will occur primarily in Garfield
and Rio Blanco Counties and the city of Grand Junction.  At pre-
sent, the area population is concentrated in the eastern portion
of the counties; the hypothetical energy developments will be lo-
cated in the western portion of the counties.  Most of the antici-
pated social and economic impacts will result either directly or
indirectly from the population increase that will come with energy
development.  This section describes and analyzes existing condi-
tions in the area and the changes likely to accompany energy
development.

6.4.2  Existing Conditions1

     Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties occupy 6,254 square miles
and had a combined 1974 population of 21,700, giving the region a
population density of 3.5 people per square mile.  Colorado's over-
all density is 21.2 people per square mile.  The population of the
area increased in the 1960-70 decade, but not on a comparable level
with the state  (8.2 percent increase for the two counties as com-
pared with 25.8 percent for the state).  Speculation and anticipa-
tion concerning oil shale production in the area has been a major
cause for this population growth.  Further, Rio Blanco County's
population declined by 6 percent during the decade, primarily due
to net outmigration.  About one-half of the residents in the two
counties live in unincorporated areas.  Populations and population
changes for the area counties and towns are shown in Table 6-23.

     Employment by industry in the two counties is shown in Table
6-24.  Tourist-related employment is centered in Glenwood Springs,
which is on the route to Aspen and Vail.

     Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties are each governed by a board
of county commissioners.  Both counties have planning departments
and countywide zoning regulations (see Table 6-25).  Both also be-
long to a council of governments made up of elected officials from
these counties and Moffat and Mesa Counties.  This council of gov-
ernments has focused much of its attention on oil shale development
within the area.  According to a survey of residents and officials,
     1For a detailed history and current description of  the  sce-
nario area, see Ashland Oil, Inc.; Shell Oil Co., Operator.  Oil
Shale Tract C-b;  Socio-economic Assessment, prepared  in  conjunc-
tion with the activities related to lease C-20341 issued  under the
Federal Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Program.  n.p.:  March 1976,
Vol. I.

                                437
-------
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stringent land-use controls are favored in Garfield County  and
opposed in Rio Blanco County.1

     Carbondale, Glenwood Springs, New Castle, Silt,  Rifle,
and Grand Valley are the incorporated cities in Garfield  County.
Carbondale, Grand Valley, and Rifle are governed by a mayor and
council.  All three also have a professional city manager,  but only
Carbondale has a professional planner.   (Carbondale has recently
grown because of energy development in nearby Pitkin  County.)
Public services include water, sewers, public safety, and fire
protection.2  Apparently, current services are operating  at or
near capacity; however, expansion is either under way or  being
discussed in all three cities.

     Meeker and Rangely are incorporated cities in Rio Blanco
County.  Both are governed by a mayor and council.  Meeker  has a
city manager and Rangely has a town administrator, but neither has
a professional planner.  Public services in Meeker include  water,
sewers  (provided by a separate district), a volunteer fire  depart-
ment, and public safety.  Rangely provides the same services ex-
cept that it is just beginning to develop its sewer system.

     Education for the counties and municipalities is provided by
separate school districts.  Other special districts provide for
sanitation, fire protection, and hospital.

6.4.3  Factors Producing Impacts

     Two factors associated with energy facilities dominate as the
causes of social and economic impacts:  manpower requirements and
taxes levied on energy facilities.  Tax rates are tied to capital
costs, and/or the value of coal extracted, and/or the value of en-
ergy produced.  Taxes which apply to the Rifle scenario facilities
are a property tax, sales tax, severance tax, royalty payments for
federally owned coal, and oil shale bonus bids.

     The manpower requirements for each scenario facility are given
in Tables 6-26 to 6-28.  For the oil shale mines, the manpower re-
quirement for operation exceeds the peak construction requirement
by two times and, for the coal mine, by eight times.  However, the
reverse is true for the conversion facilities; peak construction
manpower requirements exceed the operation requirement by six times
for the power plant and four times for the TOSCO II plant in situ


     :VTN Colorado, Inc.  Socioeconomic and Environmental Land-Use
Survey;  Moffat, Routt, and Rio Blanco Counties, Colorado,  Summary
Report.  Denver, Colo.:  VTN Colorado, 1975, p. 160.

     2Sewer service in Carbondale and fire protection in  Grand
Valley are provided by separate districts.  Rifle is  now  forming
a separate fire protection district.

                               441
-------
     TABLE 6-26:  MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A 1,000 MEGAWATT
                  POWER PLANT AND ASSOCIATED MINE3
YEAR
FROM
START
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE
MINE
0
31
71
101
163
115
21
0
POWER PLANT
0
126
394
619
763
597
216
0
OPERATION WORK FORCE
MINE


0
150
300
600
1,200
1,200
POWER PLANT



0
33
65
121
131
TOTAL IN
ANY ONE
YEAR
0
157
465
870
1,259
1,377
1,568
1,331
 Data are for a 1,000 megawatt-electric power plant and an under-
ground coal mine large enough to supply that power plant  (about
3.4 million tons per year) and are from Carasso, M., et al.  The
Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols.  San Francisco, Calif.:
Bechtel Corporation, 1975; data uncertainty is -10 to +20 percent.
   TABLE 6-27:
MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A 50,000 BAR!
DAY TOSCO II PLANT AND ASSOCIATED MINE°
PER
YEAR
FROM
START
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE
MINE


0
115
313
356
157
0

TOSCO II PLANT
0
43
311
824
1,342
1,322
778
0

OPERATION WORK FORCE
MINE






0
591
591
TOSCO II PLANT






0
327
327
TOTAL IN
ANY ONE
YEAR
0
43
311
939
1,655
1,678
935
918
918
aData are for a 50,000 barrel per day TOSCO II oil shale plant  and
an underground oil shale mine large enough to supply that plant
(about 26 million tons per year) and are from Carasso, M.,  et al.
The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols.  San Francisco, Calif.:
Bechtel Corporation, 1975; data uncertainty is -10 to +20 percent.
                                442
-------
 TABLE 6-28:
MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A 57,000 BARREL PER DAY
IN SITU OIL SHALE PLANT AND ASSOCIATED MINE
YEAR
FROM
START

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE

MINE



140
260
550
200



IN SITU PLANT

250
400
960
1,040
1,950
1,000



OPERATION WORK FORCE

MINE





270
530
1,090
1,090
1,090
IN SITU PLANT



50
50
130
270
510
510
510
TOTAL IN
ANY ONF
YEAR

250
400
1,150
1,350
2,900
2,000
1,600
1,600
1,600
 Calculated from data on maximum manpower needs given in Ashland
Oil, Inc. and Occidental Oil Shale, Inc.  Supplemental Material
to Modifications to Detailed Development Plans for Oil Shale
Tract C-b, prepared for Area Oil Shale Supervisor, July 21,1977.
oil shale facilities.  In combination, the total manpower require-
ment for each oil shale mine-conversion facility combination in-
creases from the first year when construction begins, peaks, and
then declines as construction activity ceases.  There is almost no
peak for the coal mine-power plant combination.  Peak total man-
power is about 1,570 for the power plant, 1,680 for the 50,000
bbl/day TOSCO II plant, and 2,900 for the 57,000 bbl/day Occiden-
tal modified in situ plant.  For the oil shale facilities, total
labor required for operation is about half that required during
peak construction.  The 50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant and mine
require the least labor, 920, for operation and the 57,000 bbl/day
plant and mine require the most, 1,600.

     The property tax and sales tax, which are tied to capital
costs of the conversion facilities, and royalty payments and the
severance tax which are tied to the value of the coal, and oil
shale bonus bids, generate revenue for the local and state govern-
ment.  The capital costs of the conversion facilities and mines
hypothesized for the Rifle scenario are given in Table 6-29.
Costs range from about 515 (mine-power plant facility) to 556 mil-
lion 1975 dollars (50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant and mine).  The
property tax, most of which goes to local government, is levied
on the cash value of the facility (approximately the total capital
cost given in Table 6-29) after construction of the facility is
                               443
-------
   TABLE 6-29:
CAPITAL RESOURCES REQUIRED FOR CONSTRUCTION OF
FACILITIES (in millions of 1975 dollars)3
FACILITIES
Power Plant,
1,000 MWe
Associated
underground
coal mine
3.4 MMtpy
In Situ Oil
Shale, 57,000
bbl/dayc
TOSCO II Oil
Shale, 50,000
bbl/dayc
MATERIALS
AND
EQUIPMENT
154

35
315

217
LABOR
AND
MISCELLANEOUS
154

21
127

191
INTEREST
DURING
CONSTRUCTION
131

20
111

148
TOTAL
439

76
553

556
MWe = megawatt-electric
MMtpy = million tons per year
                 bbl/day = barrels per day
 Data are adjusted  (assuming linearity) to correspond  to  the  fa-
cility size hypothesized in the scenario and  are  from  Carasso,  M.,
et al.  The Energy  Supply Planning Model, 2 vols.   San Francisco,
Calif.:  Bechtel Corporation,1975;and Ashland Oil, Inc.,  and
Occidental Oil Shale, Inc.  Oil Shale Tract C-b Modifications to
Detailed Development Plan.  Ashland, Ky.:Ashland  Oil,Inc.,1911

 At ten percent per year.

°Cost includes those for the mine and retort.
completed.  The sales tax, most of which goes to the state govern-
ment, is levied on materials and equipment only  (Table 6-29) as
these materials and equipment are purchased during construction.
The current sales tax rate in Colorado is 3.5 percent and the
property tax rate in Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties is about
1.37 percent.1  In Colorado, there is also a 5 percent severance


     :This is the effective, average property tax rate.  The ac-
tual rate is computed using a number of assessment ratios, since
certain kinds of equipment  (e.g., pollution control equipment)
are taxed at different rates or may be exempt.
                               444
-------
tax, most of which goes to the state government, levied on the
value of the coal that is mined.  Royalty payments for federally
owned coal are about 12.5 percent of the coal value,1 of which  50
percent is returned to local and state government.  A royalty rate
of $1.12 per ton2 is collected on oil shale and bonus bids may  be
as high as $48 million for a mine supplying a 57,000 bbl/day fa-
cility.  Half of the royalty and bonus bid payments are designated
to go to the state.

6.4.4  Impacts

     The nature and extent of the social and economic impacts
caused by these factors depend on the size and character of the
community or communities in which workers and their families live,
on the state and local tax structure, and on many other social  and
economic factors.  A scenario, which calls for the development  of
a power plant and two oil shale plants according to a specified
time schedule (see Table 6-1), is used here as a vehicle through
which the nature and extent of the impacts are explored.  The dis-
cussion relates each impact type to the hypothetical scenario and
includes population impacts, housing and school impacts, economic
impacts, fiscal impacts, social and cultural impacts, and political
and governmental impacts.

A.  Population Impacts

     The first major energy-related impact on western Colorado
will be from construction workers associated with the coal mine
and power plant complex, followed in 1978 by oil well drilling
personnel.  All construction in this scenario will be completed
before 1990.  Population changes were estimated by means of an
economic base model, the employment data from the Bechtel Corpor-
ation3 in Table 6-30, and a set of multipliers for construction
and for operation phases.  Construction-phase multipliers increase
from 0.3 in 1975 to 0.7 in 1982 and remain constant thereafter;
operation-phase multipliers begin at 0.4 in 1977 and rise to 1.2
by 1986.1*  Low multiplier effects are the rule rather than the
     xThis is the federal government's target rate;  actual  rates
will vary from mine to mine.

     2For 30 gallons per ton oil shale, 1974 dollars.

     3Carasso, M., et al.  The Energy Supply Planning Model,
2 vols.  San Francisco, Calif.:  Bechtel Corporation, 1975.

     **These values were adapted from Crawford, A.B., H.H. Fullerton,
and W.C. Lewis.  Socio-Economic Impact Study at Oil  Shale Develop-
ment in the Uintah Basin, for White River Shale Project.  Provi-
dence, Utah:  Western Environmental Associates, 1975, pp. 156-58.

                               445
-------
  TABLE 6-30:
               CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION EMPLOYMENT  FOR RIFLE
               ENERGY DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO,  1975-2000
YEAR
1975
1976
1877
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1990-2000
CONSTRUCTION
157
465
720
1,360
2,930
4,465
4,860
5,570
5,160
3,015
940
2,350
2,730
2,500
1,200
0
0
OPERATION


150
330
665
1,330
1,740
2,150
2,560
2,970
4,300
4,350
4,350
4,700
5,100
5,900
5,900
TOTAL
157
465
870
1,690
3,595
5,795
6,600
7,720
7,720
5,985
5,240
6,700
7,080
7,200
6,300
5,900
5,900
          Source:  Carasso, M., et  al.  The  Energy
          Supply Planning Model.  2 vols.  San  Fran-
          cisco,Calif.:Bechtel Corporation,  1975;
          and Ashland Oil,  Inc., and Occidental Oil
          Shale, Inc.   Oil  Shale Tract C-b Modifica-
          tions to Detailed Development  Plan.
          Ky.:  Ashland Oil,  Inc.,  1977.
                                                Ashland,
exception in rural areas.1  Further, the overall population  esti-
mates were distributed spatially among the urban centers  in  and
around Garfield County (Table 6-31 and Figures 6-6 and  6-7).  The
Grand Valley vicinity at the mouth of Parachute Creek is  expected
to receive a large amount of the increase in population.  A  new
          Summers, Gene F., et al.
ropolitan America.
                                    Industrial Invasion of Nonmet-
	   New York, N.Y.:  Praeger, 1976, pp.  54-59.
Population employee multipliers used were 2.05 for construction
workers, 2.50 for operation workers, and 2.0 for service workers
(all of which take into account two-worker households).  They were
adapted from Mountain West Research.  Construction Worker  Profile,
Final Report.  Washington, D.C.:   Old West Regional Commission,
1976.
                                446
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     1975
            1980
1985
1990
1995
                                                Total
                                                Rural
                                                Rifle

                                                Glenwood Springs
                                                Grand Valley
2000
    FIGURE 6-6:  POPULATION  ESTIMATES  FOR GARFIELD

                 COUNTY,  1980-2000
en  20_

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     1975
            1980    1985    1990    1995     2000
      FIGURE 6-7:
                   POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR RIO BLANCO

                   COUNTY,  1980-2000
                              448
-------
town development discussed in some reports is not anticipated  in
this scenario.'1

     The population of Garfield County is expected to  increase more
than 65 percent to almost 28,000 people by 2000.  Rifle  should grow
three-fold to 6,800, becoming larger than Glenwood Springs by  1990.
Grand Valley is expected to increase from 360 to 4,400,  a twelve-
fold increase.  Rio Blanco County is expected to grow  200 percent
by 1990, with much of the growth taking place in Rangely and Meeker
(Figure 6-6).  Meeker is projected to increase to 7,900  people by
2000.  For the two-county area, the 22,150 population  increase
from 1975 to 2000 represents a doubling of the population.2

     In general, the population increase in the scenario is ex-
pected to take place primarily in and near the established towns.
Outside the two-county area, service employment will increase  in
Grand Junction, the major service center in western Colorado.  A
46 percent population increase is expected in the Grand  Junction
area as a result of the energy development hypothesized  in this
scenario  (Table 6-31).

     Age-sex breakdowns of the projected populations in  Garfield
and Rio Blanco Counties help in predicting changes in  the housing
and educational needs of the area.  The new employment was assumed
to be distributed by age as found in recent surveys in the West.3

     The resulting age-sex distribution in Table 6-32  shows an in-
crease in the 25-34 age group and, through 1990, the 0-5 age group.
The 35-54 age group increases after 1990.  In addition,  the rela-
tive proportion of males to females is high during the 1980-1995
period because of single males associated with energy development.

B.  Housing and School Impacts

     Housing demand and school enrollment can be estimated by em-
ploying the information in Tables 6-31 and 6-32, and assuming that
children in the 6-13 age group are in elementary school, and those
in the 14-16 age group are in secondary school (see Table 6-33 and
     1 See the uncontrolled urban development pattern in THK Asso-
ciates.  Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related  to  an
Oil Shale Industry;  Regional Development and Land Use Study.
Denver, Colo.:  THK Associates, 1974, pp. 74-75.

     2For a scenario which projects greater population growth,
see Ibid., pp. 75-77.

     3Data adapted from Mountain West Research.  Construction
Worker Profile, Final Report.  Washington, D.C.:  Old West Re-
gional Commission, 1976, p. 38.

                                449
-------
TABLE 6-32:
PROJECTED AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION FOR GARFIELD
AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES, 1975-2000a
AGE
Female
6 5 -over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13
0- 5
Total
Male
6 5 -over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13
0- 5
Total
1975

.055
.051
.113
.059
.033
.030
.031
.078
.046
.496

.050
.049
.116
.058
.031
.032
.034
.084
.047
.501
1980

.031
.032
.091
.097
.037
.027
.024
.067
.052
.458

.029
.038
.117
.123
.052
.033
.026
.070
.053
.541
1985

.028
.029
.085
.096
.036
.033
.028
.080
.057
.472

.026
.031
.100
.123
.044
.035
.029
.082
.058
.528
1990

.024
.026
.082
.107
.038
.033
.027
.077
.060
.474

.022
.027
.098
.134
.044
.035
.028
.079
.060
.527
1995

.024
.032
.104
.087
.049
.033
.030
.077
.046
.482

.024
.033
.120
.101
.051
.034
.030
.078
.046
.517
2000

.028
.041
.116
.093
.053
.036
.031
.067
.025
.490

.028
.044
.120
.101
.054
.036
.031
.067
.025
.506
  Source:  Table 6-31 and data from Mountain West Research.
  Construction Worker Profile, Final Report.  Washington,
  D.C. :Old West Regional Commission, 1976, p. 38.

  aTotals do not always sum to 1.0 because of rounding.
                            450
-------
      TABLE  6-33:  ESTIMATED  NUMBER OF  HOUSEHOLDS  AND SCHOOL
                  ENROLLEMNT IN  GARFIELD  AND  RIO  BLANCO
                  COUNTIES,  1975-2000a
YEAR
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
NUMBER OF
HOUSEHOLDS
6,600
12,300
11,900
13,300
13,800
14,900
NUMBER OF
ELEMENTARY
SCHOOL CHILDREN
3,500
4,630
5,960
6,370
6,490
5,740
NUMBER OF
SECONDARY
SCHOOL CHILDREN0
1,410
1,690
2,100
2,200
2,500
2,700
      Source:

      a
Tables 6-31 and 6-32.
       Debeque  and  Roaring  Fork  school  districts were ex-
      cluded  from calculations.

      bAges 6-13.

       Ages 14-16.   These age  group assumptions result in a
      possible  underestimate of  at most 25  percent (current
      enrollment  is just over  6,700) , but relative sizes are
      indicative  of impacts.
Figure 6-8).  Based on these projections, expected housing demand
nearly doubles almost immediately, indicating that about  5,700
new units will be needed in the Garfield-Rio Blanco County area
by 1980.  Growth in demand is somewhat slower thereafter, but
2,600 additional new homes will be needed between 1980 and 2000.

     The distribution of housing estimated in Table 6-33  largely
reflects temporary construction worker households living  in mobile
homes through 1990, particularly between 1975 and 1980.   Even
more families are likely to live in mobile homes if local housing
construction cannot keep up.1  Given existing infrastructure, the


     Housing construction in western Colorado is not keeping up
with demand.  See Bolt, Ross M., Dan Luna, and Lynda A. Watkins.
Boom Town Financing Study, 2 vols.  Denver, Colo.:  Colorado De-
partment of Local Affairs, 1976.
                                451
-------
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                                             Elementary
                                                 Secondary
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            I

         1980
1985
  I

1990
  I

1995
2000
FIGURE 6-8:
         ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS  AND SCHOOL

         ENROLLMENT IN GARFIELD AND RIO  BLANCO
         COUNTIES, 1980-2000
                          452
-------
majority of mobile homes will be concentrated in the Grand Valley
area, where 63 of the present 87 dwellings are mobile homes.
Rifle, where mobile homes currently account for less than 10 per-
cent of available housing, is expected to maintain a relatively
low percentage if the local building industry attempts to meet
demands there.1

     School enrollment impacts will vary between elementary and
high school over time.  Elementary enrollment is expected to peak
at 6,500 in 1995 (85 percent more than the 1975 level).  The 380
classrooms suggests that some excess capacity is available2 (Table
6-34).  A 29 percent rise in enrollment between 1975 and 1980 can
be absorbed on an overall classroom basis, but impacts will be
greater at some locations than at others.  For example, nearly one-
half of all new enrollment by 1980 is expected in Rangely, which
in 1974 had an average of just over six students in each of its
67 classrooms.  To maintain an average of 21 pupils per classroom,
10 new classrooms will be needed by 1980, 60 percent of them in
elementary schools.  However, by 1985, Rangely will not need any
of the 25 additional classrooms.  In the other districts, enroll-
ment and classroom needs increase steadily, creating a $7 million
increase in operating expenditures by 2000.  Teachers, bus drivers,
maintenance, and supplies, as well as the purchase of new school
buses, will be in addition to the construction costs.  The esti-
mates in Table 6-34 suggest that the additional enrollment during
the 1980's and early 1990's may well be accommodated by split ses-
sions or temporary facilities, keeping capital expenditures for
permanent facilities to a minimum.  However, this may be difficult
in Rangely, where the peak enrollment in 1980 will be 23 percent
above the 2000 peak.

C.  Economic Impacts

     Agriculture now dominates the economy of Rio Blanco County
(35 percent of all 1972 earnings).3  However, as energy develop-
ment proceeds, the economy will shift to mining and extraction.
In Garfield County, the mixed tourism-related local economy will
shift to mining and service and local government employment


     *Data on December, 1974 housing are taken from Mountain Plains
Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Impacts of Natural Resource
Development Committee.  Socioeconomic Impacts and Federal Assis-
tance in Energy Development Impacted Communities in Federal Region
VIII.  Denver, Colo.:  Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council,
1975.

     2Ibid.

     3U.S., Department of Commerce, Bure-au of Economic Analysis.
"Local Area Personal Income."  Survey of Current Business, Vol. 54
(May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75.

                                453
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related to population growth.  Major economic benefits will  result
from employment, and income in the energy industries  and  from tax
revenues of various types  (Table 6-35, Figures  6-9 and 6-10).   The
scenario development should result in a 13 percent higher median
household income, while during construction the median is 28 per-
cent above the 1975 level1 (see Figure 6-9).  The principal  change
in the overall income distribution is an increase in the relative
number of households earning $15,000 to $25,000  (Figure  6-10).

     The general increase in business activity  should be roughly
proportional to the population gains in each locality.   The  tempor-
ary benefits from construction workers and their somewhat higher
incomes will accrue primarily to the nearby towns of Rifle,  Meeker,
Rangely, and Grand Valley.  Some commercial growth should occur in
Grand Junction as a result of the Rifle-Meeker  area  development,
but other development in western Colorado is likely  to be a  bigger
source of growth in that city.

     Local governments will receive tax benefits, although mu-
nicipal services will experience shortfalls early in the period.
School districts will have little difficulty after the early rush
of new residents, partly because their taxing areas  include  the en-
ergy facilities with their relatively large valuations.  Based  on
an enrollment increase of 4,000 students in all districts within
two counties by 1995, nearly $10 million in new school construc-
tion will be required in the area.  Property tax receipts should
keep up with this need.  In municipalities, where energy facilities
do not add directly to tax revenues, meeting needs for public fa-
cilities may be more difficult.

     Water and sewage treatment facilities are  among the primary
problems faced by any small community experiencing a significant
population influx.  In terms of capital expenditures, these  two
items will account for 75 percent of all nonschool expenditures
needed to serve additional population in the scenario area.2
Within the area, excess capacity exists only in Grand Junction's
     1These income impacts will be in addition to national  trends
in income growth from productivity gains and other  causes.

     2THK Associates.  Impact Analysis and Development Patterns
Related to an Oil Shale Industry;  Regional Development  and Land
Use Study.  Denver, Colo.:  THK Associates, 1974, p.  30;  see  also
Lindauer, R.L.  Solutions to Economic Impacts on Boomtowns  Caused
by Large Energy Development.  Denver, Colo.:  Exxon Co.,  USA,  1975.
pp. 43-44.

                                455

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    16,000  _
    15,000  -
    10,000
         1975   1980  1985   1990  1995   2000
FIGURE 6-9:  MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME, GARFIELD AND
             RIO BLANCO COUNTIES, 1970-2000
                        457

-------
w
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more than
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                1975   1980  1985  1990   1995  2000
FIGURE 6-10:  PROJECTED ANNUAL INCOME DISTRIBUTION

              FOR GARFIELD AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES,

              1975-2000  (in 1975 dollars)
                        458

-------
water and sewage treatment facilities,1 suggesting that the com-
munities in Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties will be forced to
expand their systems before the population arrives  (1975-1980,
Table 6-36), or have insufficient capacities during construction
booms.  Other capital needs, especially health care, will demand
sizable capital outlays by 1980.  Only Rangely's population will
decline in the postconstruction phase after 1980.

     In terms of overall expenditures, per capita costs tend to
rise as a town's population increases because more services are
provided; however, much of the increase is normally for capital
expenditures and debt service.2  Based on an average of $120 per
capita, the additional operating expenditures required of munic-
ipal governments in the scenario area are shown in Table 6-37.
Meeker and Grand Valley will need 4 and 12 times, respectively,
their 1975 annual budgets by 1990.  Particular needs likely to be
generated by population growth are full-time fire protection to
assist existing volunteer departments and an expansion of county
sheriff and municipal police forces and vehicles.3

D.  Fiscal Impacts

     The major source of revenue from energy development will be
the property tax on energy facilities.  Over $1.6 billion  (Table
6-29) will be invested in energy facilities by 1990 ."*  Assuming
that current mill levies are maintained, the property tax on these
facilities will generate nearly $36 million in new revenues annu-
ally by 1990.  Table 6-38 details these levies, and Table 6-39
shows the resulting property tax revenues by jurisdiction.  Valu-
ations are based on investment costs in'the Bechtel Energy Supply
Planning Model.5

     fountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Im-
pacts of Natural Resource Development Committee.  Socioeconomic
Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted
Communities in Federal Region VIII.  Denver, Colo.:  Mountain
Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975.

     2THK Associates.  Impact Analysis and Development Patterns
Related to an Oil Shale Industry;  Regional Development and Land
Use Study.  Denver, Colo.:  THK Associates, 1974, p. 41.

     3Ashland Oil, Inc.; Shell Oil Co., Operator.  Oil Shale Tract
C-b;  Socio-Economic Assessment, prepared in conjunction with the
activities related to lease C-20341 issued unde'r the Federal Proto-
type Oil Shale Leasing Program.  n.p.:  March 1976, Vol. I, pp.
VIII-34 to VIII-35.

     4All figures are in 1975 dollars.

     5Carasso, M., et al.  The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vol.
San Francisco, Calif.:  Bechtel Corporation, 1975.

                                459

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-------
   TABLE 6-39:  PROPERTY  TAX  REVENUES  FROM ENERGY FACILITIES
                 (in millions  of  1975 dollars)
.JURISDICTION
Rio Blanco Schools
Rio Blanco General
Garfield Schools
Garfield General
Total
1978
2.4
1.0
0
0
3.4
1980
5.0
2.0
0
0
7.0
1983
14. 0
5.7
0
0
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1985
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26.1
1990
18.2
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7.2
3.0
35.9
       Source:  Tables  6-29  and  6-38.
     In comparison to the industrial plants, valuations  of  related
residential and commercial property are negligible, adding  only
about one percent to the above figures.  However,  for  some  juris-
dictions  (such as Grand Junction), residential and commercial  de-
velopment will be the only source of new property  taxes.

     The average tax rates in Table 6-38 can be applied  to  popula-
tion increments in the impacted areas.  At the same time, it is
convenient to add another population-related source:   fees  for ser-
vices such as water and sewer.  If Grand Junction  data are  indic-
ative of the entire area, $61.60 per year per capita in  fees may
be added to the tax revenues.  Applying these rates to the  antic-
ipated population increases, revenues may be estimated for  the
jurisdictions in the region  (Table 6-40).

     Next to the property tax, the biggest local revenue will  come
from sharing federal mineral revenues, because the hypothetical oil
shale mine is located on leased federal land.  The royalty  rate is
12C per ton  (1974 dollars) for shale containing 30  gallons  of  shale
oil per ton and may be adjusted to reflect changes  in  the price of
crude.1  For a 50,000 bbl/day facility, annual payments  would  be
$3,120,000.  If royalty rates are applied at the same  rate  to  the
shale oil recovered from the in situ facility, an  additional
$3,550,000 per year would be collected.  Also, the  bonus bid


     lnFact Sheet" accompanying Department of the  Interior  news
release, November 29, 1973.
                                463

-------
      TABLE 6-40:
REVENUES FROM RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL
PROPERTY TAXES AND MUNICIPAL UTILITY FEES,
SELECTED JURISDICTIONS
(above 1975 levels in millions of 1975
dollars)
JURISDICTION
Rio Blanco Schools
Rio Blanco General
Garfield Schools
Garfield General
Grand Junction Schools
Grand Junction General
1980
1.33
1.21
.36
.24
.92
.65
1985
1.17
1.07
1.62
1.09
1.99
1.40
1990
1.28
1.17
2.36
1.59
3.18
2.23
       Source:  Based on population increase data from
       Table 6-32, and per capita school and general
       fund tax given on Table 6-38, and a water and
       sewer fee of $61.60 per capita.
payment will add a much larger amount to this.  The highest bonus
bid so far received is the $41,300 per acre offer obtained from
the Standard Oil of Indiana/Gulf venture in 1974.l  Assuming this
to be indicative of what could be collected from a commercially
viable project, and applying it to both oil shale facilities,2
the projected bonus bid is $53 million, which is payable in five
annual installments starting with the bid date.  (The following
allocations assume a bid date of 1979 for the 50,000 bbl/day mine
and 1984 for the 57,000 bbl/day facility.)   Recently passed legisla-
tion allocates one-half of federal mineral revenues to the state of
origin, with one-fourth of that amount intended for mitigating local
impacts.  Altogether, the state share of oil shale bonus bids
would be $2.5 million per year during 1979-1983, and $2.8 million
during 1984-1988.  The state and local share of royalty payments


     JU.S., Federal Energy Administration.   Project Independence
Blueprint Final Task Force Report—Potential Future Role of Oil
Shale;  Prospects and Constraints.  Washington, D.C.:  Government
Printing Office, 1974, Appendix B, p. 17.

     2The mine-site for the 50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II plant is 606
acres.  For the 57,000 bbl/day in situ process, only a portion of
the shale that is retorted is mined.  Since the nature of the bo-
nus bid in that case has not been established, this calculation
scales the bonus bid to the 50,000 bbl/day plant and sums the two.
                                464

-------
              TABLE 6-41:  NEW SALES TAX REVENUES
                            (millions of 1975 dollars)
JURISDICTION13
State of Colorado (3%)
Rio Blanco County (0.5%)
City of Grand Junction (0.5%)
Total
1980
1.99
.21
.08
2.28
1985
1.83
.12
.11
2.06
1990
2.57
.14
.16
2.87
      aAssuming 56 percent of income goes to retail
      sales.  Revenues geographically distributed
      proportionally to population.

       These are the only jurisdictions  in  the  region
      which currently levy a sales  tax.
would be about $3 million per year beginning in 1983 for the
TOSCO II facility and continuing for the mine life.  For the in
situ facility, a comparable royalty rate would be $3.5 million per
year beginning in 1990.

     State income and sales taxes are the major sources of revenue
tied to personal income.  Colorado's income tax, which reaches 8
percent of taxable income for incomes above $10,000,* implies col-
lections of $848 per household based on the projected 1980 income
distribution, and $794 per household based on the steady-state dis-
tributions.  Expected income tax revenues are $1.9 million in 1978,
$5.4 million in 1980, $6.6 million in 1983, $5.9 million in  1985,
and $8.9 million in 1990.  Sales taxes are detailed in Table 6-41.
Some undetermined portion of this additional revenue is overesti-
mated because some of the immigrating workers will leave other
parts of Colorado to work on these energy projects.

     Finally, all state and local revenues can be summarized by
jurisdiction.  These are shown in Table 6-42 and can be compared
with anticipated expenditures for these jurisdictions.  It is


     JU.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.  The Sta-
tistical Abstract of the United States.  Washington, D.C.:  Govern-
ment Printing Office,1975,Table435.  We assume a standard deduc-
tion of $4,000 per household.
                                465

-------
   TABLE 6-42:  SUMMARY OF REVENUES DUE TO ENERGY FACILITIES
                (millions of 1975 dollars)
JURISDICTION
o
State of Colorado
School Districts
Rio Blanco
Garfield
Grand Junction
County and Municipal
Rio Blanco
Garfield
Grand Junction
1980
9.9

6.3
.36
.92

3.4
.24
.72
1985
13.3

19.4
1.9
2.0

8.7
1.2
1.5
1990
14.9

19.5
9.6
3.2

8.8
4.6
2.4
          Including portions of royalties earmarked for
         local assistance.
immediately apparent that school districts in Rio Blanco County will
derive substantial fiscal advantages from the projected develop-
ments.1  For example, in 1990, new operating expenditures in Meeker
and Rangely will be at a rate of $4.7 million per year  (the sum of
expenses for Meeker and Rangely from Table 6-34), while new reve-
nues for these districts total $19.5 million (Table 6-42).  Mill
levies could be reduced and capital requirements still be met on
a pay-as-you-go basis.  Garfield County districts will also enjoy
surpluses eventually but may face deficits before the in situ oil
shale facility comes on-line in 1990.  For example, in 1985 the
Rifle and Grand Valley districts will need an additional $4.9 mil-
lion (the sum of expenses for Rifle and Grand Valley from Table
6-34) over current operating budgets, while new revenues only
reach $1.9 million (Table 6-42).  Further, $2 million in new fa-
cilities will be needed by that date.  The prospect of $9.6 mil-
lion per year in new revenues for Garfield County schools after
1990 may provide a basis for borrowing in the interim.2  County and
municipal governments in these counties show short-falls for capital


     Compare Table 6-42 with Table 6-34.

     2Note that some of the state government's royalty' share is
earmarked for local impact mitigation.
                                466

-------
expenditures until 1990.  Grand Junction  (in Mesa County) occupies
an intermediate position, with moderate revenue increases  ($1.5
million by 1985, $2.4 million by 1990).

     If Colorado state government maintains its current  rate of
expenditures ($1,125 per capita), and if no more than one-fourth
of the people new to this area come from out of state, then the
state government will experience positive fiscal benefits.  Any
immigration rate much greater than 25 percent would  lead to new
expenses exceeding new revenues.

E.  Social and Cultural Impacts

     The primary societal effects of energy resource development
in western Colorado should be related to the economic changes  in
the area.  Shifts from an agricultural and tourism base  to a
resource-extraction base will alter the political base and social
relations of the population over the long term.  Social  conflict
between newcomers and long-time residents is most likely in Rio
Blanco County where newcomers will outnumber oldtimers before  1980.
Other conflicts between these groups of residents are likely,  at
least in the short term, because of the strain put on local ser-
vices by the population increase.1  A large cluster  of mobile
homes may prove to be undesirable to both inhabitants and close
neighbors.  Finally, the cost of living generally rises  faster
than the incomes of long-time residents; this is especially true
for persons on fixed incomes who compose a significant proportion
of the present population.  However, in general, social  impacts in
the Rifle area will probably be less severe than was thought a few
years ago.2

     The quality of life as perceived by people in the Rifle area
would undergo some changes because of energy development.  The pre-
sent residents like the small community size and environmental
quality of the area but some are dissatisfied with the range of
     :A particular problem in rapid growth communities  is  a degen-
eration of telephone service, suggesting that private industry  also
has a lead time problem in coping with new demands  from growth.
See U.S., Federal Energy Administration.  Project Independence
Blueprint Final Task Force Report—Potential Future Role of Oil
Shale;  Prospects and Constraints.  Washington, D.C.:   Government
Printing Office, 1974, p. 246.

     2Compare Ibid., pp. 238-58; and University of  Denver, Research
Institute; Resource Planning Associates; and Socioeconomic Asso-
ciates.  Socioeconomic and Secondary Environmental  Impacts of West-
ern Energy Resource Development, Working Paper, for the Council on
Environmental Quality.  Denver, Colo.:  University  of Denver Re-
search Institute, 1976, pp. VII-1 through VII-11.

                                467

-------
shopping and entertainment facilities.1  Thus, the population
growth expected with energy development, especially during  the  con-
struction phase, will have a negative effect on the area's  quality
of life for some residents, but others will welcome the  accompany-
ing increase in the number and range of goods and services  avail-
able locally.  For example, educational services for adults are
likely to be expanded by Colorado Northwestern Community College
in Rangely.  Rangely and Meeker will be most impacted by 1980  (in
this scenario) , after which a new stability will be difficult to
achieve until after 1990.  The shift in the economic base from
agriculture and tourism will be indicative of the shifts in life-
styles for people in the area 'as more seasonally stable  industries
replace the dependence on the traditional lines of work.

F.  Political and Governmental Impacts

     As shown in the preceding analysis, energy development in
Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties will lead to demands for new pub-
lic facilities and services.  Communities in the two counties will
be forced to expand their water and sewer systems before the popu-
lation arrives; capital will be needed for health care facilities;
and fire and police protection will have to expand.  Each of these
demands requires increasing government activity and expenditures
at the local level.  However, a major problem for the communities
is their lack of planning resources and infrastructure to prepare
for and manage rapid population growth.  This lack, together with
the anticipated expenditure needs discussed above, suggests that
fiscal and planning shortfalls are likely.

     Although school districts and the two counties will enjoy  long-
term revenue benefits from the projected development, the Garfield
County districts will face deficits before the energy facilities
are assessed and placed on the tax rolls.  That is, front-end fi-
nancial problems and the manner in which revenues are distributed
from both the state and the counties will greatly influence the
net fiscal status of the localities and districts during the short-
term construction period, especially those outside the immediate
vicinity of a mining activity.  The creation of a new town  or plan-
ned subdivisions financed largely by industry near Grand Valley
could alleviate many of the problems anticipated for that community.
Rifle and Meeker will be able to handle the impact to a greater ex-
tent primarily because of their expected growth as service  centers.
The service-related growth of these two municipalities will help to
balance the population pressure in western Colorado and will pro-
vide the towns additional tax revenues to finance capital improve-
ments and public services.
               Carl E. von.  Attitudes and Opinions Related to the
Development of an Oil Shale Industry, for the Oil Shale Regional
Planning Commission and the Colorado West Area Council of Govern-
ments.  Denver, Colo.:  Bickert, Browne and Coddington and Asso-
ciates, Inc., 1973.

                                468

-------
     Another impact category which may involve government is the
demand for housing and mobile homes subdivisions to accommodate
temporary and longer term workers.  Colorado provides minimum stan-
dards for subdivision design, platting, provision of utilities,
open space_, and similar control criteria.  The Department of Local
Affairs within the state's Division of Housing serves as the ad-
ministrative organization to assist in the establishment and finan-
cing of needed housing.1  In addition, Colorado's Housing Finance
Corporation can help alleviate low and middle income housing needs
by securing home mortgage money for traditional lending institu-
tions in rural areas.  Since a number of the energy-impacted com-
munities must rely on mobile homes to meet temporary population
growth, it is significant that Colorado has adopted mobile home
construction standards for all mobile homes sold in the state.
Of more critical concern, however, is the need to assure adequate
enforcement of construction standards and the provision of now
nonexistent mobile home park codes of design.2

     The most important political impacts are related to land use
in the area and the effect of energy development on ranchers.  Po-
litically, the rancher-dominated system will be strained by new-
comers almost from the beginning of construction.  As development
progresses, urban centers will acquire a larger proportion of vot-
ers and, hence, political influence in the counties.  This shift
can begin as early as 1980 in Rio Blanco County when a large num-
ber of new permanent workers and their families are present.

6.4.5  Summary of Social and Economic Impacts

     Manpower requirements and the capital cost of the energy fa-
cilities are major causes of social and economic impacts.  The man-
power requirements for operation of the underground mines exceed
peak construction manpower requirements, particularly in the case
of the coal mine.  However, the reverse is true for the conversion
facilities.  The peak construction manpower requirement for the
power plant exceeds the operation requirement by about six times.
In combination, the total manpower requirement for each oil shale
mine-conversion facility increases from the first year when con-
struction begins, peaks, and then declines as construction activity
ceases.  After all the facilities and their associated mines are
            Ross M., Dan Luna, and Lynda A. Watkins.  Boom Town
Financing Study, 2 vols.  Denver, Colo.:  Colorado Department of
Local Affairs, 1976.

     2See the Policy Analysis of Planning and Growth Management in
White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West;  Policy Analysis Re-
port.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,
forthcoming.

                                469

-------
constructed, operation of the 50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II plant will
require the least labor and the 57,000 bbl/day in situ oil shale
facility, the most.

     Property tax, sales tax, severance tax, royalty payments,
and oil shale bonus bids generate revenue for local and  state  gov-
ernment.  Capital costs of the conversion facilities and mines  hy-
pothesized for the Rifle area range from about $515 million  (mine-
power plant facility) to $556 million  (1975 dollars) for the 50,000
bbl/day oil shale plant and mine combination.  The property tax is
levied at a rate of about 1.37 percent on the cash value of each
facility and the sales tax is levied at a rate of 3.5 percent  on
the materials and equipment purchased.  Royalty payments are about
12.5 percent of the value of federally owned coal and 12C per  ton
of oil shale mined.  Oil shale bonus bids are expected to be about
$25 million for a 50,000 bbl/day facility.  About half of all  min-
eral revenues will go to the state government.

     If all facilities are constructed according to the  hypothe-
sized schedule, the Rifle scenario energy development will in-
crease the population of western Colorado by 43,000 people, 16,000
of whom will be in the area by 1980.  This early increase, con-
sisting largely of construction workers, will require 5,700 homes,
at least 40 percent of which may be mobile homes.  As construction
workers are replaced by operational employees, the proportion  of
mobile homes may be able to decline to about 20 percent  of total
housing.  School enrollment will increase through 1995 and subside
after that.  The long-term capital need for education will be  about
$6 million by 1990; operating' expenditures will more than triple
for the school districts serving Rifle and Grand Valley.  The  towns
of Meeker, Rangely, Rifle, and Grand Valley likewise will receive
the bulk of the population impact from development.

     The long-term income benefit to Rifle area residents is esti-
mated to be about a 13 percent increase; during construction the
increase will be up to 28 percent.  Some local inflation will  re-
duce the latter to the long-term level.  Grand Junction, the eco-
nomic service center for the area, also will receive some commer-
cial benefits from these energy developments.

     Local governments will require greatly expanded facilities to
serve the larger local populations, especially in water  and sew-
age treatment.  In fact, about $20 million will be needed primarily
by Meeker and Rangely by 1980; an additional $12 million will  be
needed by Rifle and Grand Valley by 1990.

     The change from an agricultural and tourism base to an en-
ergy development base will have social as well as economic effects.
Population concentrations and conflicts over agricultural land in
population expansion areas will require adjustments within the lo-
cal area.  The overall planning capacity of local governments  ap-
pears to be inadequate to manage growth in the area.

                                470

-------
6.5  ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS

6.5.1  Introduction

     The area considered for ecological impacts in the Rifle sce-
nario extends from the Colorado-Utah state line eastward to the
middle of the White River National Forest, and from Grand Mesa on
the south to the northern Moffat County line.1

     The complex topography of the area varies from river valleys
at 4,700 feet to mountains higher than 11,000 feet.  Both rainfall
and temperature vary with topography; conditions are relatively
drier and warmer at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes.  The
structures of the area's varied soils reflect the combined influ-
ence of biological conditions, weather, and topography.  In the
study area, the principal influences controlling the development
of biological communities are slope, elevation, and exposure.
Forestry, agriculture, and grazing have a locally important
influence.

6.5.2  Existing Biological Conditions

     Vegetation types correspond approximately to altitude and ex-
posure.  The major types in order of elevation are:  riparian
(streamside) and agricultural bottomlands; salt desert shrub; sage-
brush communities; pinyon-juniper woodland; mixed mountain brush
areas? midelevation coniferous forest; and subalpine coniferous
forest.  Mixtures of types are often found together in patches.
The dominant species characteristic of these biological communities
are summarized in Table 6-43.

     Although widely distributed, most smaller animals generally
live within a single community.  However, some birds and most big
game species range more widely.  The larger mammals (such as deer,
elk, bear, and mountain lions) generally move freely between zones
but use them selectively and during different seasons.  Fifty-four
species of mammals, 260 species of birds, and 13 species of rep-
tiles and amphibians have been reported for the area.   Rare or
endangered terrestrial species include the bald eagle and pere-
grine falcon; the black-footed ferret may also be present.

     Aquatic habitats vary from temporary creeks and small perma-
ment streams such as Parachute and Piceance Creeks to the area's
two major rivers, the Colorado and the White.  Both cold-water and
warm-water fish inhabit these streams, including trout, mountain
whitefish, bluehead sucker, channel catfish, Cplorado squawfish,
and carp.
     JA large area was considered due to the extensive influence
of increased human populations.

                                471

-------
TABLE 6-43:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTIC  SPECIES  OF
MAIN COMMUNITIES, RIFLE  SCENARIO
COMMUNITY TYPE
Riparian
(bottomlands )
Salt desert shrub
Sagebrush
Pinyon- juniper
Mountain brush
Midelevation
Subalpine forest
CHARACTERISTIC
PLANTS
Crops
Cottonwood
Box elder
Willow species
Green ash
Cropland
(some irrigated)
Shadscale
Greasewood
Fourwing saltbush
Nuttall saltbush
Big sage
Silver sage
Rabbitbrush
Bitterbrush
Pinyon pine
Utah juniper
Bitterbrush
Mountain mahogany
Rabbitbrush
Serviceberry
Mountain mahogany
Chokecherry
Snowberry
Gambel oak
Ponder osa pine
Douglas fir
Snowberry
Mountain maple
Serviceberry
Engelmann spruce
Lodgepole pine
Aspen
Fescut species
Needle grass
CHARACTERISTIC
ANIMALS
Muskrat
Raccoon
Snakes (e.g., common
garter)
Amphibians (e.g.,
tiger salamander)
Songbirds (e.g.,
yellow-throat)
Lizards (e.g., short-
horned)
Kangaroo rat
Jackrabbit
Gray fox
Antelope
Mule deer (winter)
Blue and sage grouse
Sagebrush lizard
Brewers blackbird
Sage sparrow
Blue and sage grouse
Mountain cottontail
Scrub jay
Least chipmunk
Mule deer
Elk (winter)
Deer (migratory or
winter)
Chickadees
Kinglets
Gray jay, Steller's
jay
Mule deer (summer)
Elk (summer)
Red squirrel
Lewis ' woodpecker
Snowshoe hare
Hawks and owls
Mule deer (summer)
Elk (summer)
Mountain goat
Bighorn sheep
Red fox
Hawks and owls
Clark's nutcracker
                       472

-------
6.5.3  Factors, Producing Impacts

     Four factors associated with construction and operation of
the scenario facilities can cause ecological impacts:  land use,
population increases, water use and pollution, and air pollution.
With the exception of land use, the quantities of each of these
factors associated with the scenario facilities were given in
previous sections of this chapter.  Land-use quantities are given
in this section and the others are summarized.

     Land use by each of the facilities proposed for the Rifle
area is given in Table 6-44.  The amount of land used during the
lifetime of each facility (30 years)  ranges from 180 acres (the
in situ oil shale process)  to 2,650 acres  (the 50,000 bbl/day
TOSCO II facility and mine.) .  In the two cases where spent shale
disposal is required (TOSCO II and in situ with a surface retort),
land use is high.

     The manpower required for construction and operation of the
facilities is expected to cause an increase in urban population.
Peak manpower requirement for the scenario facilities is about
1,570 for the power plant and mine, 1,680 for the 50,000 bbl/day
plant and mine, and 2,900 for the 57,000 bbl/day in situ plant and
mine.  After construction is completed, manpower requirement for
operation is 1,330 for the power plant and mine, 920 for the
50,000 bbl/day TOSCO II plant and mine, and 1,600 for the 57,000
bbl/day .in, situ plant and mine.  Assuming the power plant is wet
cooled, It's water requirement is 9,400 acre-ft/yr.  The TOSCO II
facility will require 9,300 acre-ft/yr and the in. situ facility
from 4,360 to 5,660 acre-ft/yr.  Water sources postulated to meet
these requirements are the White River near Meeker, the Colorado
River near Grand Valley and groundwater from mine dewatering.  Ef-
fluent streams from the facilities directed to ponds or treatment
facilities will contribute contaminants to surface and groundwater
only if evaporative ponds leak or erode.  The annual ambient air
concentrations of S02 will range from 0.1  (in situ shale) to 2.3
micrograms per cubic meter (yg/m3) (power pTant).Peak concentra-
tions from the power plant will violate Colorado's 24-hour and
3-hour SO2 ambient air standard.  Typical and peak concentrations
from the TOSCO II oil shale plant will greatly exceed federal am-
bient air standards for HC.

6.5.4  Impacts

     The nature of the ecological impacts caused by these factors
depends on the plant and animal community type on which they are
imposed.  For example, the impact of land use depends on whether
desert shrub, riparian, or pinyon-juniper communities are used.
Some of the land-use trends are now evident or could occur regard-
less of energy related growth.  A scenario, which calls for the
development of a power plant, 50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant, and
57,000 bbl/day in situ oil shale plant and associated mines,  to be

                               473

-------
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                                             474

-------
developed according to a specified time schedule  (see Table 6-1),
is used here as the vehicle through which the extent of the im-
pacts are explored.  Impacts caused by land use, population in-
creases, water use and pollution, and by air pollution are dis-
cussed.

A.  To 1980

     The power plant and its associated underground coal mine will
begin operation in 1980.  Table 6-45 shows the expected land use
by the energy facilities and urban population in the scenario area
which includes Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties.  By 1980, 3,061
acres will be used by the power plant and its associated mine and
by the urban population; this is about 0.1 percent of the land in
these counties (Table 6-45).  Table 6-46 gives the community types
lost due to land use by energy facilities and urban population.
Habitat losses by 1980 will be primarily mountain brush and sage-
brush.  Land in the scenario area which is managed by the Bureau
of Land Management (BLM) is presently grazed in spring and fall
by cattle and sheep and is stocked below its carrying capacity
(based on forage production alone) to preserve wildlife and water-
shed values.  The forage which could be produced on the 3,061 acres
used by 1980 is roughly equivalent to the food consumed by 43-86
cows with calves or 215-432 sheep using the area as seasonal pas-
ture.1  Temporary land use of about 750 acres during construction
of transmission line rights-of-wa^ is not included in acres lost
(Tables 6-45 and 6-46)  because grazing values can be restored with
proper reclamation practice to a level similar to that which ex-
isted before the line was built.

     The impacts of habitat removal on small nongame species that
do not occupy large ranges will probably be localized, not affect-
ing populations on adjacent undisturbed areas.  These local losses
will not adversely affect predators that use them as food.

     The power plant site is located within a large elk winter
range.  The total area affected is small—less than five percent
of the total winter range unit--but human activity may cause elk
to stay as much as a half mile from the construction site.  The
impact of these factors alone, in terms of elk populations, cannot


     1 Based on the carrying capacity of the land in acres per ani-
mal unit month (AUM), as furnished by the BLM (White River Resource
Area personnel, personal communication, 1976).  An AUM, a unit of
forage production, is the amount of food consumed by a cow with
calf, or five sheep in a month.  Because of differences in food
habits, the unit cannot generally be extended to wild grazing ani-
mals.  Potential forage losses calculated in AUM's are independent
of season.  Acres of forage required per animal unit assuming sea-
onal pasturing (six-month)  is 35.. 4 to 70.8.  Twelve-month pastur-
ing would require twice as many acres.

                               475

-------
       TABLE  6-45:
LAND  USE  IN  RIFLE  SCENARIO  AREA
(in acres)

By Energy Facilities
Conversion Facilities
Power Plant (1,000 MWe)
Oil Shale In Situ (57,000 bbl/day)
Oil Shale Retort (50,000 bbl/day)
Associated Mines
Underground Coal Mine (3.4 MMtpy)
Underground Oil Shale (26 MMtpy)
Subtotal
By Urban Population
Rio Blanco County
Residential
Streets
Commercial
Public and Community Facilities
Industry
Subtotal
Garfield County
Residential
Streets
Commercial
Public and Community Facilities
Industry
Subtotal
Subtotal
Total Land Use
Total Land in Rifle Scenario 4,005,760
Land in Rio Blanco County 2,088,320
Land in Garfield County 1,917,440
1975











260
52
6
16
26
36CT

445
89
11
28
44
6 17
977
977



1980


800



500

1,300


795
159
19
49
80
1,102

475
95
11
30
48
STT
1,761
3,061



1990


800
180
2,150

500
500
4,130


870
174
21
54
87
1,206

570
114
14
35
57
790"
1,996
6,126



2000


800
180
2,150

500
500
"4,130


915
183
22
57
92
1,269

600
120
14
37
60
83T
2,100
6,230



MWe = megawatt-electric
bbl/day = barrels  per  day
          MMtpy = million tons  per  year
 Values in each column  are cumulative for year given.

 Acres used by the urban  population were calculated using population estimates
in Table 6-32  for  Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties assuming:   residential  land
= 50 acres per 1,000 population; streets = 10 acres per 1,000 population;  com-
mercial land = 1.2 acres  per 1,000 population; public and community facilities
= 3.1 acres per 1,000 population; and industry = 5 acres per  1,000 population.
Adapted from THK Associates.  Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related
to an Oil Shale Industry:  Regional Development and Land-Use  Study.Denver,
Colo.:THK Associates, 1974.
                                   476

-------
         TABLE 6-46:
VEGETATION LOSSES OVER TIME IN THE
RIFLE SCENARIO AREA
(acres)a
COMMUNITY TYPE
Mountain brush
Sagebrush
Pinyon- juniper
Total
1980
2,755
214
92
3,061
1990
3,939
238
1,949
6,126
2000
3,644
263
2,323
6,230
             aThe data in the table include land use
             by energy facilities and urban popula-
             tion.  The following land-use categories
             are not included in the table:  product
             pipelines will remove roughly 70 acres
             of mountain brush, 170 acres of sage,
             70 acres of pinyon-juniper.  New roads
             will occupy a total of approximately
             710 acres in the riparian/agricultural
             zone but will remove substantially less
             than that amount of vegetation (probably
             only about 360 acres) because the widths
             of the existing roads are already cleared.
             A new road connecting the town of Rangely
             to the Piceance Creek site will remove
             240 acres of mixed pinyon-juniper and up-
             land sagebrush.  The oil field development
             around Rangely will disturb a total of
             850 acres, divided between the oil wells
             themselves and the gathering pipelines
             connecting them.
be quantified with available data but would probably be small com-
pared to overall herd size.

     While the activities of construction workers will have neg-
ligible impacts on most nongame species outside the immediate plant
site, several-fold increases in big game poaching are typically ob-
served around large construction projects in the West.:  For these
species, the impact of illegal kills will probably be more signi-
ficant with respect to areawide populations than will habitat loss.
Other than big game animals, the only other species which are


     *Grand Junction Field Office Staff, Colorado Division of Wild-
life.  Personal Communication, 1976.
                               477

-------
subject to local reductions by illegal shooting are large birds of
prey, including hawks and eagles.1

     Manpower associated with energy development is expected to
cause a 57 percent increase over the 1975 urban population in Rio
Blanco and Garfield Counties by 1980.  Urban population increase,
together with growing use by out-of-state visitors, will place
additional demands on mountain habitats for dispersed backoountry
recreational activities.  Designated wilderness areas will receive
especially heavy demand.2 Recreational activities with a potential
for altering wildlife distribution patterns include:  camping and
fishing, which tend to cause selective deterioration of delicate
riparian and lakeshore habitats; off-road-vehicle  (ORV)  use;
and hiking and backpacking.  Certain heavily used areas are already
beginning to show visible signs of deterioration.3

     Recreational opportunities offered by the White River and
Grand Mesa National Forests tend to draw visitors from all over
the nation.  As a regional recreational focus, the area receives
a strong impact from the metropolitan centers along Colorado's
Front Range as well as from the Western Slope.  The population
change is likely to have a disproportionately large impact on
National Forest use because residents will use the forests re-
peatedly, rather than once or twice yearly.  Also, persons visit-
ing new residents may help to swell the number of forest visitors.

     Increased human presence in mountainous backcountry tends to
lead to withdrawal of sensitive species away from areas of activity.


    Coaching has a much more severe impact than legitimate hunting
in that it affects game of both sexes and occurs throughout the
year.  Removal of pregnant females and nonbreeding young can affect
the ability of the population to maintain adequate breeding stock.
Legitimate hunting is regulated so as to assure the presence of
enough breeding adults to regenerate the herd year after year.

    2Two areas certain to be used more intensely are Snowmass/
Maroon Bells and Flat Tops—the Elk Creek and Canyon Creek drain-
ages.  Three areas adjacent to Snowmass/Maroon Bells are also
likely to be used extensively, particularly if they are designated
as wilderness areas (a possibility which is currently being con-
sidered) .  Another area not classified as wilderness but also sus-
ceptible to heavy recreational use is the Grand Mesa National For-
est immediately south of Rifle.

    3For example, along the Canyon del Diablo portion of Main Elk
Creek which lies in the scenario area, excessive use since 1972 has
led to serious erosion problems along roads and trails.  Increased
fishing in Main Elk Creek has already reduced the quality of the
trout fishery.  Todd, J.  "We're Losing the Wild in the Wilder-
ness."  Colorado Outdoors, Vol. 25 (March/April 1976), pp. 10-11.

                                478

-------
Species considered sensitive to this type of disturbance include
mountain lion, pine marten, bear, and elk.  The diversity and abun-
dance of small mammals and birds may be decreased on a local scale
around heavily used areas.  Snowmobile use, although usually con-
centrated in areas of deep snow avoided by migratory wildlife in
winter, can be particularly stressful to big game animals.

     Deer and elk normally winter at different elevations, which
permits them to share the available winter habitat.  Depending on
the degree to which elk are disturbed in wintering areas, movement
of these animals to lower elevations could bring them into direct
competition with deer, which may suffer as a result.  There is also
some circumstantial evidence that displacement of elk by heavy rec-
reational activity in their high-elevation summer range and calving
ground may be associated with declines in overall numbers.1  With
existing controls on use, continued deterioration in habitat qual-
ity may be expected in wilderness areas.2

     Recreational vehicle use of the rugged lands of the Roan Pla-
teau and adjacent uplands may increase.  Much of this region is
presently accessible by road or trail, and most of this land is
under BLM control which has limited personnel for adequate enforce-
ment.  Besides supporting a diverse small-vertebrate fauna, these
lands constitute a major mule deer winter range; inadvertent or
intentional harassment by ORV users could result indirectly in the
loss of an unquantifiable number of animals.3

     The water requirement of the power plant will be about 8 per-
cent of the average flow and 21 percent of the minimum flow of the
White River near Meeker, its water source.  The increased water
demand for the 1980 urban population will probably be met with
water from the Colorado River.  Effluents from the energy facility
will be ponded.  Increased wastewater from urban population will
require updated treatment facilities.  Contaminated urban runoff
and leachates from additional municipal solid waste disposal sites
could contaminate groundwater and surface water.

     Air quality changes due to emissions of criteria pollutants
from the power plant are not expected to cause significant ecolog-
ical impacts by 1980.


     :San Juan National Forest Staff.  Personal Communication, 1976.

     2The White River National Forest has no current plans to in-
stitute a backcountry permit system.  Colorado Division of Wild-
life Staff.  Personal Communication, 1976.

     3During the late winter months, deer are usually in their
poorest condition.  Avoiding ORV pursuit, especially by snowmobiles,
may debilitate weakened individuals sufficiently to reduce their
resistance to disease.

                               479

-------
B.  To 1990

     All the scenario facilities will be operating by 1990.  By
this time, 6,126 acres of land, about 0.15 percent of the total
acres in Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties, will have been used by
the energy facilities and urban population.  Forage which could be
produced on the land used would support 78-155 cows with calves or
388-777 sheep assuming they are seasonally pastured.  Land use by
1990 will affect local populations of small vertebrates and pred-
ators, but area-wide populations will probably remain stable.

     Increases in manpower requirements for construction and oper-
ation of the facilities is expected to cause a 92 percent increase
over the 1975 urban population in Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties,
which will total 41,800 by 1990.  Population of elk, deer, ante-
lope, hawks, and bald eagles could decline by 1990 as a result of
increased poaching associated with increasing construction forces
and urban population.

     The additional vehicular traffic in and out of the two oil
shale plant/mine complexes will also have an additional adverse
influence on wildlife, particularly on mule deer which concentrate
in the Parachute Creek Valley during the winter.  Initially, road
kills of wildlife will increase sharply.  As many as 100 deer may
be killed in the first year or two of heavy traffic in Parachute
Creek.1  Subsequently, deer may begin to avoid their old winter
concentration areas and attempt to winter in adjacent habitats.

     The bulk of the human population influx into the scenario area
is expected by 1990.  Most changes associated with urban growth
should be apparent by 1985, although they intensify somewhat later.
In addition to urban growth, increased population will add to ex-
isting demands for recreational and second home sites.  Areas most
affected by this kind of growth will include the White River Valley
east of Meeker, the Glenwood Springs area, and the Rifle area.

     The major impacts of urban and residential growth on animals
arise through fragmentation of habitat; for example, where foothills
used as winter deer range are subdivided for recreational homesites,
and where there is local intensification of such activities as ORV
and trail bike use and similar miscellaneous disturbances.  Valley
and foothill habitats, which contain the most developable lands,
are most vulnerable to this type of deterioration.


     Colony Development Operation; Atlantic Richfield Company,
Operator.  An Environmental Impact Analysis for a Shale Oil Complex
at Parachute Creek, Colorado, Part I:  Plant Complex and Service
Corridor.  Denver, Colo.:  Atlantic Richfield, 1974; and U.S. ,
Department of the Interior.  Final Environmental Impact Statement
for the Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Program, 2 vols.  Washington,
D.C.:Government Printing Office,F973.

                               480

-------
     Fragmentation of biological communities is likely to have the
greatest impact in the White River valley east of Meeker, and spe-
cies with large ranges will be most affected.  For example, accord-
ing to the Colorado Division of Wildlife personnel, 30-50 percent
of the elk herd in the White River National Forest winter on pri-
vate lands, and available winter range is thought to limit the size
of this herd.  Elk are sensitive to human disturbance and tend to
move completely away from areas with increased levels of activity.1
Therefore, the impact of energy-related habitat fragmentation and
clearing will be greater than the proportion of acreage involved.
The mule deer winter range will also be affected.  Deer are less
liable to wholesale emigration in response to habitat fragmentation,
but some measurable reduction in numbers is probably inevitable.

     Urban development will occur primarily in the major river val-
leys, and fragmentation will probably affect species typical of the
cultivated valley lands.  However, these species are adapted to
fragmented habitat.  The chukar partridge, a bird with narrow hab-
itat requirements, is likely to be eliminated locally near Grand
Junction.  This could reduce the total breeding population slightly.
Beaver remaining in the valley might also suffer from clearing of
riparian vegetation, which is their primary food source.

     Urban water demands and generation of wastewater are expected
to increase as the population increases.  However, water withdraw-
als for municipalities and the energy facilities are not expected
to have a significant impact on the aquatic ecology of the Colorado
River, which has an average flow of 1,955,000 acre-ft/yr.

     The effect of dewatering on vegetation will be confined pri-
marily to the riparian and agricultural areas.  Deteriorated water
quality could curtail irrigation in the remainder of the drainage.
This will probably result in a shift in vegetation from cultivated
grasses to one of the two major native valley floor associations;
sagebrush and saltbush-greasewood.  Accumulation of salts in ir-
rigated soils may favor the latter.

     Some species of terrestrial animals will be affected directly
by the loss of these valley vegetation types.  These include musk-
rat, raccoon, other stream-side mammals of medium size, and the
characteristic small bird species of riparian woodlands.  Small
mammals, which are abundant in irrigated haylands, will be reduced
in numbers, which may in turn lead to locally reduced numbers of
preda,tors and wintering birds of prey.
     lfrhis statement represents the current conventional wisdom;
recent observations at Glenwood Springs and Steamboat Springs
have indicated that elk may return to such ranges after a few
years (Colorado Division of Wildlife, Grand Junction, Colorado.
Personal Communication, 1976).

                                481

-------
     While the upland vegetation may persist without change, the
loss of accessible water from springs and streams will probably
alter the composition and perhaps the abundance of their animal
communities.  For example, sage grouse and blue grouse require
mois'. areas with plentiful succulent vegetation and accessible
water during the brood-rearing phase of their life cycle.  A sage
grouse brood-rearing area lying along the southern edge of the
Piceance basin will probably be abandoned if its springs are lost.
In winter, mule deer can probably obtain their water needs from
snow or meltwater; thus, the large populations wintering there
might not be seriously affected by groundwater depletion.  However,
deer may cease to use some of the area in summer.

     Interception of groundwater flow in the Parachute Creek Basin
by the 50,000 bbl/day oil shale plant is not expected to result in
a significant loss of base flow in the Colorado River.  Reduced
flows may result in slight increases in salinity downstream.  Due
to dewatering, the sport fishery in the Piceance Creek, which in-
cludes brown, rainbow, and brook trout and mountain whitefish, will
probably be lost or degraded.  More adaptable nongame species may
remain.

     The potential ecological impact of flow reduction in the White
River is impossible to quantify with available data.  Flow-reduction
sufficient to result in ecological stress is not likely to occur
every year.  Instream flow needs for maintaining the aquatic com-
munity have not been established for the White River.  Lowered cur-
rent velocity will reduce populations of organisms living on
sediment-free stream bottoms fed on by fish and limit fish spawning
or nesting habitat.

     The oil shale complex will dispose of spent shale in on-site
impoundments; catastrophic failures of these impoundments are un-
likely during the 30 years of plant operation.1  However, should
such an event occur (most probably as a result of a flash flood),
spent shale from the Parachute Creek disposal pile could be car-
ried as far as the Colorado River.  The fine-grained shale could
physically obliterate existing bottom communities in Parachute
Creek, rendering them unstable and reducing productivity for sev-
eral years.  Heavy metals in the shale could be slowly released
into the aquatic environment, possibly contaminating the food chain
if present in sufficient quantities.  Also, there is evidence that
carbonaceous spent shales of the type produced by the TOSCO II pro-
cess contain at least moderately carcinogenic substances which are
     ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.
Draft Environmental Impact Statement;  Proposed Development of Oil
Shale Resources by the Colony Development Operation in Colorado.
Washington, D.C.:  Bureau of Land Management, 1975.

                               482

-------
water soluble and subject to leaching.1  The spent shale piles
containing salts, trace elements, and potentially carcinogenic
compounds will be treated to prevent the occurrence of significant
ecological impacts.2

     Accidental rupture of product pipelines could release quan-
tities of oil or ammonia into the Parachute Creek drainage area.
The effects of such a spill could be both acute (from introducing
water-soluble toxins into the aquatic ecosystem)  and chronic (from
fouling of the bottom by oil).    Relatively small spills might re-
sult in possible fish kills.3  Following a spill which entered one
of the flowing rivers or streams in the scenario area, oil would
tend to collect in the quiet backwaters used by young fish and
could foul productive riffle areas.

     Alkaline shale dusts and salts carried in cooling tower drift
also damage vegetation.  Processed shale resembling cement-kiln
dust, which is thought to cause premature needle-drop in conifers,1*
would be confined to the immediate plant and spent shale disposal
areas.  The effect of salt deposition around cooling towers would
also be confined to an area within a few hundred yards in the di-
rection of prevailing winds.  The highest salt deposition rates
will be associated with the power plant; and the lowest level will
occur at the Parachute Creek oil shale plant.

     The projected emissions of S02 result in periodic high ground-
level concentrations when plumes impact on adjacent high terrain.
High SO2 concentrations have caused acute damage in experiments
with ponderosa pine.  The sensitivities of other woody plants in
the area are either lower or have not been tested.  The area of
     ^chmidt-Collerus, Josef J.  The Disposal and Environmental
Effects of Carbonaceous Solid Wastes from Commercial Oil Shale
Operations.Denver,Colo.:University of Denver,Research  Insti-
tute, 1974.

     2Pfeffer, Fred M.  Pollutional Problems and Research Needs
for  an Oil Shale Industry, EPA-660/2-74-067.Ada, Okla.:Robert S,
Kerr Environmental Research Laboratory, 1974.

     3U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.
Draft Environmental Impact Statement:  Proposed'Development  of Oil
Shale Resources by the Colony Development Operation in Colorado.
Washington,D.C.:Bureau  of Land  Management,1975.

     ''U.S., Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Public
Health Service.  Air Quality Criteria  for Particulate Matter, Na-
tional Air Pollution Control Administration Publication No.AP-49.
Springfield, Va.:  National Technical  Information Service, 1969.

                                 483

-------
vegetation damage would probably be less than one to two square
miles.  Ground-level concentrations near the smaller plant are not
high enough to suggest such acute damage, although chronic impacts
 (resulting in reduced growth, vigor, and resistance to disease)
cannot be ruled out.  Slight to negligible soil acidification1
could also result from a combination of dry deposition of partic-
ulate sulfates and S02.  Total scenario S02 emissions are probably
not high enough to result in acid rain problems, although, acid
mists could form locally under certain conditions.

C.  To 2000

     Although construction of all the scenario facilities will be
completed by 1990, land use will continue to increase due to dis-
posal of spent shale and urban growth.  By 2000, about 6,230 acres,
 (about 0.16 percent of the total acres in Rio Blanco and Garfield
Counties)  will be used by the energy facilities and urban popula-
tion (Table 6-45).  Forage which could be produced on the land
used would support 111-222 cows with calves or 555-1,110 sheep,
assuming they are seasonally pastured.  Other ecological impacts
associated with land use by 1990 will be more intense by 2000.

     In 2000, the urban population will have doubled its 1975 level
in Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties.  Ecological impacts associated
with urban population increase, water use and pollution, and air
pollution will be qualitatively similar to those described by
1990.

D.  After 2000

     About 7,000 acres of land, 0.18 percent of the total area in
Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties, will be used by the energy facil-
ities (Figure 6-2).   If the facilities are located totally or pri-
marily on land suitable for other development (which is only a
small fraction of the total area),  the effect will be much greater
than implied by the total area occupied.  The population-related
land requirements shown in Table 6-45 must use the developable
land in the river valleys, which constitutes only about 393,600
acres in the two counties.2  The requirements for most population-
related land needs amount to only 2,100 acres (0.54 percent of the


     Acidifying the soil with sulfates is thought to increase the
rate at which nutrients are lost from the soil by leaching.

     2THK Associates, Inc.  Impact Analysis and Development Pat-
terns Related to an Oil Shale Industry;  Regional Development and
Land Use Study.   Denver, Colo.:  THK Associates, 1974, pp.  61-70;
see also Ashland Oil, Inc., Shell Oil Co.,  Operator.  Oil Shale
Tract C-b:  Socio-Economic Assessment, prepared in conjunction with
the activities related to lease C-20341 issued under the Federal
Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Program, 2 vols. n.p.:  March 1976.

                               484

-------
developable land and 1.41 percent of the "most suitable" develop-
able land)  in Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties.1

     Ecological impacts after 2000 associated with population in-
crease, water use and pollution, and air pollution are expected
to be similar to those prior to 2000.

6.5.5  Summary of Ecological Impacts

     Four factors associated with construction and operation of
the scenario facilities can significantly affect the ecological
impacts of energy development:  land use, population increases,
water use and pollution, and air pollution.  About 7,000 acres
of land, 0.16 percent of the total area in Rio Blanco and Garfield
Counties, will be used by. the energy facilities and urban popula-
tion during the thirty-year lifetime of the facilities.  By 2000,
urban population in Rio Blanco and Garfield Counties will be
43,850, an increase of 100 percent over the 1975 population.  The
water requirement of the power plant (operating at the expected
load factor and assuming high wet cooling is used) will be 2 per-
cent of the average flow and 8 percent of the minimum flow of its
water source, the White River.  The base flow of the White River
may be reduced during periods of low flow due to water withdrawal
for the power plant.  Water withdrawn for an oil shale plant and
municipalities from the Colorado River, which has an average flow
of 1,955,000 acre-ft/yr, is not expected to have a significant
impact.  Colorado's 24-hour and 3-hour SOj ambient air standards
will be violated by emissions from the power plant.

     Major ecological impacts caused by these factors are ranked
into categories in Table 6-47.  These categories are based upon
the extent of community change and number of species affected.
Class A impacts such as habitat removal or fragmentation or changes
caused by the failure of shale piles or pipelines are the most
severe.  Class B impacts locally affect fewer species and include
stream flow depletion and illegal shooting.  Impacts which are
likely to affect the fewest animals and are extremely localized
such as the localized plant damage from plume impaction, are
ranked as Class C.

     A fourth category includes impacts that cannot be evaluated
with certainty because adequate understanding of their mechanisms
is not available.  The complex processes that govern the movement
of toxic metal ions and organic substances, such as may be con-
tained in spent shale piles, are not well enough known to determine

     1 Ratings according to THK Associates, Inc.  Impacted Analysis
and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry:  Re-
gional Development and Land Use Study.   Denver, Colo.:  THK Asso-
ciates, 1974, p. 70.  The development ratings therein unfortunately
include currently irrigated lands as favorable for development, a
conflict in use which will have to be resolved.

                               485

-------
        TABLE  6-47:
SUMMARY OF MAJOR ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS,
RANKED BY SIGNIFICANCE
IMPACT
CATEGORY
Class A
Class B
Class C
Uncertain
1975-1980

Illegal shooting
Grazing losses

1980-1990
Pipeline rupture
Retention dam
failure
Habitat frag-
mentation
Flow depletion
in White River
Illegal shooting
Increased recre-
ational use of
backcountry
areas
Grazing losses
Localized S02
plant damage
Leaching of
toxins from
spent shale
1990-2000
Pipeline rupture
Retention dam
failure
Habitat frag-
mentation
Flow depletion
in White River
Groundwater
depletion
Illegal shooting
Increased recre-
ational use of
backcountry
areas
Grazing losses
Loss of irriga-
tion water,
Piceance Creek
Leaching of
toxins from
spent shale
Subacute SO2
injury to
vegetation
S02 = sulfur dioxide
whether normal operation will involve a risk of contaminating
Parachute Creek.  Similarly, ignorance of the quantitative dynamics
of acid rain formation and of the entry of atmospheric sulfates
into forest soils means that the risk of subacute damage to vege-
tation from S02 emissions cannot be assessed when only the amounts
of S02 emitted are known.
                               486

-------
     Table 6-48 summarizes the ecological impacts on several sel-
ected animal species.  Their cumulative effects on several species
of interest to people will be as follows.

(1)   Game Species

     While not significantly affected by any of the direct impacts
of energy facilities, elk may experience range displacement, and
possible direct reduction in numbers, as a result of population
growth.  Mule deer populations have been low and decreasing in re-
cent years, but the reasons for this are not known with certainty.
It appears reasonable to expect an accelerated decline throughout
the study period.  Antelope habitat in Grand Valley, already sub-
stantially fragmented by agriculture, will be further affected by
urban and residential growth and probably by the use of ORV's near
population centers.  Coupled with poaching pressure, these influ-
ences will probably contribute to an overall decline in the ante-
lope population throughout the scenario time frame.l

(2)   Rare and Endangered Species

     Bald eagles within the scenario area have habitat classified
as critical along the White River between Piceance Creek and Meeker
and three small areas south of Rangley.  These areas are all easily
accessible from human population centers, and shooting will prob-
ably reduce the number of eagles using these areas.  Slight to
marked declines may be expected from about 1978 through the sce-
nario time frame.

6.6  OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS FOR THE RIFLE SCENARIO

     The developments hypothesized for the Rifle area could produce
benefits of 157,000 bbl/day of oil and 1,000 megawatts of electric-
ity.  Most of this energy would be transported out of the Rifle
area and the western region.  Average incomes would increase about
13 percent over present levels, and economic service activities
would be increased.  As a result of increased urbanization, res-
idents in the area could enjoy more services and amenities, and
several existing communities could either acquire or improve water
and sewage treatment facilities, health services, parks, and rec-
reational areas.  Communities will also be able to professionalize
their staff, particularly in planning.  Improved roads, largely in
the river and creek valleys, will make access to recreational areas
easier for hunters, hikers, ORV enthusiasts, and other potential
users.

     Social, economic, and political impacts associated with energy
development in the Rifle area tend to be a function of the labor
and capital intensity of facilities and,- when multiple facilities


     Selected additional game species are mentioned in Table 6-48.

                               487

-------
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-------
are involved, of scheduling their construction.  These factors
determine the pace and extent of migration of people to the sce-
nario area, as well as the financial and managerial capability of
local governments to provide services and facilities for the in-
creased population.  Labor forces increase the population directly
and indirectly.  For most facility types, more manpower is required
for construction of the facility than for operation; thus, where
multiple facilities are involved, construction can be scheduled so
that population increases and instability are minimized.  Revenue
for the local, state, and federal governments is derived from prop-
erty taxes and sales taxes, both of which are tied to the capital
intensity of the facility, and from royalty payments on federally
owned coal and oil shale.  Acquiring funds for the expansion of
public services and public facilities will be difficult.  The fact
that communities are small with undeveloped planning capacity will
make that acquisition more difficult.  Colorado has no funding
assistance programs which would aid in financing increased public
costs associated with increased population; but, in Colorado, dis-
tricts rather than individual communities provide public services
and facilities.  In general, solutions to problems of who receives
the revenue and who provides the services will involve all levels
of government and their abilities to relate to each other.  Life-
style and cultural differences among residents and newcomers in-
fluence the way in which impacts from energy development are per-
ceived.  However, some of the impacts related to an influx of
"strangers" can be alleviated if labor forces include people who
had previously migrated out of the area and local unemployed
laborers.

     Air impacts associated with energy development in the Rifle
area are related primarily to quantities of pollutants emitted by
the energy facilities and quantities associated with activities of
the increased population.  A power plant emits more S02, N02, and
CO than an oil shale plant, but the TOSCO II oil shale plant emits
more HC and particulates than a power plant.  Pollutant concentra-
tions of HC associated with the population could be greater than
those from the facilities.  The complex terrain and poor disper-
sion conditions in the Rifle area exacerbate air pollution prob-
lems.  For example, ambient air concentrations will exceed Colorado
or federal standards in at least two categories.  Colorado SO2
standards are exceeded by a factor of 5 by the 1,000 MWe power
plant.  The federal primary standard for HC is greatly exceeded,
as fugitive emissions from the 50,000 bbl/day facility produce
ambient concentrations that are 240 times the standard.  There
may also be an oxidant problem at Rifle and Grand Valley, visi-
bility in the area will be reduced, and some Class II significant
deterioration increments are exceeded.

     Water impacts associated with energy development in the Rifle
area depend primarily on the water requirements of and effluents
produced by the facilities.  Water required for a power plant
(which is primarily for cooling purposes), is more than that for

                               489

-------
oil shale plants, but the use of wet/dry cooling can significantly
reduce the water required for a power plant.   Water demand by the
population is significant but less than that for the energy facil-
ities.  Effluents from the oil shale plants,  most of which are
spent shale, exceed those from the power plant.  With the excep-
tion of spent shale, all effluents will be ponded to prevent
groundwater and surface water contamination.   Mining activities
intercept aquifers, affecting base flows of groundwater and surface
water.  Water availability will probably not pose a problem for
energy development in the Rifle area and water quality is generally
good in the White and Colorado Rivers and Parachute Creek.  It is
poor in Piceance Creek.

     Mine dewatering will lower groundwater tables so that after
several decades, seeps and springs within several miles of the
mine along Piceance Creek may diminish or run dry, which may affect
vegetation and animal populations.  In the long term, processed
shale, whether stored on the surface or underground, will poten-
tially have an impact on groundwater and surface water.  Leachate
from both will enter bedrock aquifers and local streams.  It is
also likely that, over the long term, the waste disposal ponds at
the oil shale plants and the power plant will become sources of
contaminants which will infiltrate local aquifers and possibly
migrate into surface streams.

     Ecological impacts associated with energy development in the
Rifle area depend on land use, population increases, water use and
pollution, and air pollution.  Habitat removal by the new popula-
tion and the energy facilities will adversely affect both large
and small animals, but changes in animal population will not be
large.  Larger stresses to animal life are more likely from addi-
tional hunting and from reduction in stream flow, which may elim-
inate some aquatic species and reduce riparian habitat.  Plume im-
paction from the power plant and oil shale facilities is likely
to produce damage to vegetation in ah area up to several square
miles.  Process engineering changes and the imposition of addi-
tional environmental control technologies, such as increased effi-
ciency of S02 scrubbers, would lessen air impacts.  Some air, wa-
ter, and land impacts can be mitigated by in_ situ oil shale re-
torting.
                               490

-------
                            CHAPTER 7

           THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
                      AT THE GILLETTE AREA
7.1  INTRODUCTION

     Energy development proposed for the Gillette area will take
place in Campbell County, Wyoming (Figure 7-1).   This development
consists of six surface coal mines,  a mine-mouth electric genera-
tion plant, two coal gasification plants, a coal liquefaction
plant, coal export via both rail and slurry pipeline, natural gas
production, two uranium mines (surface and solutional),  and a
uranium mill.   As shown in Figure 7-2, all these facilities are
located within 40 miles of Gillette.  Although some of the elec-
tricity is to be distributed within Wyoming, most of the energy is
to be transported to demand centers in the Midwest.  Construction
of these facilities was to have begun in 1975,  and all the facili-
ties included in the scenario are to be in operation by the year
2000.  Table 7-1 identifies the technologies to be used and gives
the timetable for their deployment.1

     In all four impact sections of this chapter (air, water,
social and economic, and ecological), the factors that produce
impacts are identified and discussed separately for each energy
facility type.  In the air and water sections,  the impacts caused
by those factors are also discussed separately for each facility
type and, in combination, for a scenario in which all facilities
are constructed according to the scenario schedule.  In the social
and economic and ecological sections, only the combined impacts
of the scenario are discussed.  This distinction is made because
            this hypothetical development may parallel actual
development proposed by Carter Oil Company, Northern Natural Gas,
Black Hills Power and Light, Carter Mining, Atlantic Richfield,
Wyodak Resources Development, Kerr-McGee, Sunoco Energy Develop-
ment, AMAX Coal, El Paso Natural Gas, Falcon Coal, Shell Oil, and
others, the development identified here is hypothetical.  As with
others, this scenario was used to structure the assessment of a
particular combination of technologies and existing conditions.

                               491

-------
                        MONTANA
                        WYOMING
. , , , 1 1 i 1 I
505
Topography, feet
4000-5000
Below 4000
.. 10 15 20
miles
FIGURE 7-1:   MAP  OF THE GILLETTE  SCENARIO AREA
                         492

-------
                                    MONTANA
                                                               iiiiiiiiiHMiiHiHConveyofS




                                                               — _ « ....Trammraston
FIGURE  7-2:   ENERGY  FACILITIES  IN  THE  GILLETTE  SCENARIO




                                      493

-------
TABLE 7-1:  RESOURCES AND HYPOTHESIZED FACILITIES AT GILLETTE
Resources
Coal3 (billions of tons)
Resources 16
Proved Reserves 13
Natural Gasc (trillion standard cubic
feet)
Reserves 3.2
Uranium"1 (million of tons of ore)
Reserves 353


Technologies
Extraction
r-r*,~ i
OOa J.
Six surface mines of varying
capacity using draglines




Uranium
One surface mine using dozers
for ore removal
Gas
Completion of 83 wells with a
combined production of 250 MMscfd

Conversion
One natural gas processing plant for the
removal of H2S and natural gas liquids
One Lurgi coal gasification plant oper-
ating at 73 percent thermal efficiency;
nickel-catalyzed methanation process;
Glaus plant H2S removal; and wet forced-
draft cooling towers
One 3,000 MWe power plant consisting of
four 750 MWe turbine generators; 34 per-
cent plant efficiency; 80 percent effi-
cient limestone scrubbers; 99 percent
efficient electrostatic precipitator ;
and wet forced-draft cooling towers
One uranium ore processing plant using
acid leaching of ore and ammonia precipi-
tation to product 1,000 metric tons of
U308 per year
CHARACTERISTICS

1_
Coalb
Heat Content 7,980 3tu's/lb
Moisture 32 %
Volatile Matter 43 %
Fixed Carbon 42 %
Ash 8 %
Sulfur 0.6 %
Uranium
U309 Content 0.07%
FACILITY
SIZE
25.0 MMtpy
25.0 MMtpy
9 . 4 MMtpy
12 . 8 MMtpy
8 . 1 MMtpy
12 . 1 MMtpy

1,100.0 mtpd

6
27
50

250 MMscfd

250 MMscfd




750 MWe

750 MWe

1,500 MWe

1,000 mtpy



COMPLETION
DATE
1980
1985
1985
1985
1995
2000

1985

1977
1978
1979

1979

1985




1982

1984

1985

1985



FACILITY
SERVICED
Rail Export
Slurry Export
Lurgi Plant
Power Plant
Synth ane
Synthoil

Uranium

Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Natural Gas

















i
                              494

-------
TABLE 7-1: (Continued)

Conversion (Continued)
One solutional mine-mill producing 250
tons of U30a per year
One Synthane coal gasification plant
operating at 80 percent thermal efficiency;
nickel-catalyzed methanation process; Claus
plant H2S removal; and wet forced-draft
cooling towers
One coal liquefaction plant operating at
92 percent efficiency; nickel-catalyzed
methanation process; Claus plant H2S
removal; and wet forced-draft cooling
towers
Transportation
Coal
Conveyors from mines to
facilities
Railroad
Slurry Pipeline
Gas
One 36-inch pipeline
Oil
One 16-inch pipeline
Electricity
Four lines

500 kV
500 kV
500 kV (2)
COMPLETION
DATE

1982
1984
1985
FACILITY
SERVICED

Coal
Coal

Gas

Oil

Power Plant
Power Plant
Power Plant
Btu'S/lb = British thermal units per pound
U308 = uranium oxide
MMtpy = million tons per year
mtpd = metric tons per day
MMscfd = million standard cubic feet per day
H2S = hydrogen sulfide
MWe = megawatt-electric
mtpy • metric tons per year
tpy = tons per year
bbl/day = barrels per day
kV » kilovolts
aWyoming, Department of Economic Planning and Development. Coal and Uranium Development
of the Powder River Basin—An Impact Analysis. Cheyenne, Wyo.:Wyoming, Department of
Economic Planning and Development,1974.

bctvrtnicek, T.E., S.J. Rusek, and C.W. Sandy. Evaluation of Eow-Sultur Western Coal
Characteristics, Utilization, and Combustion Experience, EPA-650/2-75-046.Dayton, Ohio:
Monsanto Research Corporation,1975.Estimates are for the Powder River Basin.

cAmerican Petroleum Institute. Petroleum Facts and Figures, 1971 Edition. Washington,
D.C.: American Petroleum Institute, 1971, p. 114. The value cited is for the state of
Wyoming.
U.S., Energy Research and Development Administration. Statistical Data of the Uranium
Industry, January 1, 1976. Grand Junction, Colo.: Energy Research and Development
Administration, 1976, p. 49. Value cited is for S30/lb U309 reserves for the state of
Wyoming.
495

-------
social, economic, and ecological effects are, for the most part,
higher order impacts.  Consequently, facility-by-facility impact
discussions would have been repetitive in nearly every respect.

     In 1975, Campbell County had a population of 17,000--more
than double its 1960 total.  This population influx resulted pri-
marily from the large number of energy-related employment oppor-
tunities in the area.  The county's 1970 median income was $11,300,
which was higher than both the Wyoming and national medians.
Assessed 1975 valuation was in excess of $32 million, which was
the highest in the state.  At current tax rates, this valuation
constitutes a tax base adequate to provide county social services
for an increasing population.  The county is governed by a three-
member board of commissioners.  Currently, all three commissioners
are either ranchers or local businessmen; newcomers have not yet
displaced locals to the extent that might have been expected.
Although countywide zoning regulation is not practiced, develop-
ment in an area around Gillette is controlled.  The county and
the city fund the City of Gillette-Campbell County Department of
Planning and Development, which is responsible for all facets of
municipal and countywide planning.

     Gillette, the county seat and the only incorporated town in
Campbell County, had a population of 14,000 in 1975.  It is gov-
erned by a mayor and city council.  While there is no city manager,
there is a part-time city administrator.  The city provides public
safety, water, sewer, sanitation, and electrical services.  Schools
are operated by a countywide system, and the city cooperates with
the county to provide animal control, fire protection, an airport,
and snow removal.  Both the water and sewer systems are operating
at capacity, and efforts are under way to expand both.

     Most of the area around Gillette is still rural, and ranching
is a major activity.  At higher elevations, ponderosa pine and
juniper woodlands predominate.  At lower elevations there are
deciduous woodlands along streambeds; however, most of the area
is rangeland.  The 4-percent decline in farmland in Campbell County
from 1969 to 1974 is part of a 3-percent decline throughout Wyo-
ming.  This has occurred in part because several ranches in the
area have been sold or leased to coal mine developers.  Six large
surface mines were in operation or under construction in 1977, the
largest being the AMAX Belle Ayre Mine, which was the third largest
producing mine in the U.S. in 1976, with production of 7.4 million
tons.

     Runoff from the limited rainfall drains northward into the
watersheds of the Powder and Belle Fourche Rivers, both of which
are within the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB).   These surface
waters have intermittent flow and are not a reliable and adequate
source of water.
                               496

-------
     Air quality in the region is good, although winter inversions
offer the potential for periods of pollutant accumulation.  The
principal existing source of industrial emissions is the Wyodak
power plant, a 330 megawatt (MW) dry-cooled electric plant located
5 miles east of Gillette.  Selected characteristics of the area
are summarized in Table 7-2.

7.2  AIR IMPACTS1

7.2.1  Existing Conditions

A.  Background Pollutants

     Measurements of criteria pollutant2 concentrations taken at
Rapid City, South Dakota,3 indicate that no federal or Wyoming
standards are currently exceeded.  Based on these measurements,
annual average background levels chosen as inputs to the air dis-
persion models are (in micrograms per cubic meter):  sulfur diox-
ide (S02), 18; particulates, 17; and nitrogen dioxide (NC>2), 4. "*

B.  Meteorological Conditions

     Worst-case dispersion conditions can be associated with sta-
ble air conditions, low wind speeds (less than 5-10 miles per
hour), persistent wind direction, and relatively low mixing depths.5
     1 The federal standards referred to in this section are those
promulgated prior to the revisions mandated by the Clean Air Act
Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685.

     2Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air quality
standards are in force:  carbon monoxide  (CO), nonmethane hydro-
carbons  (HC), N02,  oxidants, particulates, and S02.   The term
"hydrocarbons" is used to refer to nonmethane HC.

     3U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Region VIII Energy
Office, Surveillance Analysis Division.  Ambient Air Quality
Monitoring Network—EPA Region VIII Energy Areas, EPA 908/4-77-
011.  Denver, Colo.:  Environmental Protection Agency, 1977.

     ''These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's best
professional judgment.  They are used as the best estimates of
the concentrations to be expected at any particular time.  Back-
ground concentrations of HC and CO are unknown, but high back-
ground HC levels have been measured at other rural locations in
the West and may occur here.  Background CO levels are assumed
to be relatively low.

     5Mixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upward
boundary of pollution dispersion.


                               497

-------
 TABLE 7-2:  SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GILLETTE AREA
          CHARACTERISTIC
             VALUE
 Environment

   Elevation
   Precipitation
   Temperature
     Winter Daily Low (January)
     Summer Daily High (July)
   Air Stability
   Soils
4,000-5,000 feet
14 inches average annually
87° F
Stable 31 percent of the time
Sandy to sandy loam, variable
 Biota

   Vegetation

   Croplands

   Dominant Animals
   Major Limiting Factors
Grasslands (plus coniferous and
  deciduous)
92-percent rangeland,  4-percent
  croplands (forage)
Cattle, rabbits, antelope
Droughts, grazing
 Social and Economic3

   Mineral Ownership (%)
     Federal
     State
     Local Government and Private

   Land Ownership
     Federal
     State
     Local Government and Private
   Population (County)
   Population Density
   Unemployment
   Income (per family)
   Poverty Level (less  than  $3,000)
     46.8 %
      7.1 %
     46.1 %


     12.6 %
      6.5 %
     80.8 %
 17,000
      3.8 per square mile
      2.6 % (1970)
$18,500
      4.8 %
 Government

   County
   City (Gillette)
   Taxation
   Public Department Expenditures
Board of County Commissioners
Mayor-Council
Primarily property tax
$1.4 million (1972 Campbell
  County)
Source:  U.S.,  Department  of  Commerce, Bureau of the Census, County
and City Data Book:   A Statistical  Abstract Supplement.  Washington,
D.C.:  Government Printing Office,  1972, pp. 534-545.

aCampbell County, 1975 dollars.
                                498

-------
Under these conditions, increases in pollutant concentrations
from both ground-level sources such as towns and strip mines and
elevated sources such as tall scrubber stacks are likely.  These
worst-case dispersion conditions differ at each facility location
and are reflected in the predicted annual average pollutant levels
among locations.  Prolonged periods of air stagnation are uncommon
in the Gillette area.  However, meteorological conditions unfavor-
able for pollution dispersion occur approximately 30 percent of
the time.  Thus, plume impaction1 and limited plume mixing due to
temperature inversions at plume height can be expected with some
regularity.2

     The pollution dispersion potential for the Gillette area will
also vary considerably with the season and time of day.  Pollution
problems are most likely during fall and winter mornings when mix-
ing depths and wind speeds are lowest.  Dispersion potential is
generally greatest during the spring.

7.2.2  Factors Producing Impacts

     The primary sources of air emissions in the Gillette scenario
are:  a power plant; three coal synthetic fuel facilities (Lurgi,
Synthane, and Synthoil); a natural gas plant; a uranium mill;
supporting gas wells; surface coal mines; surface and solutional
uranium mines; and emission sources associated with population
increases such as vehicles and residential and commercial heating
and cooling.  The focus of this section is on emissions of cri-
teria pollutants from the energy facilities.3  Table 7-3 lists
the amounts (in pounds per hour) of the five criteria pollutants
emitted by each of the eight facilities.  For the coal facilities,
most of the emissions come from the plants rather than the mines.
Most mine-related pollution will .originate from diesel engine
combustion products, primarily nitrogen oxides (NOX), HC, and
     1 Plume impaction occurs when stack plumes impinge on ele-
vated terrain because of limited atmospheric mixing and stable
air conditions.

     2See National Climatic Center.  Wind Dispersion by Pasquill
Stability Classes, Star Program for Selected U.S. Cities.Ash-
ville, N.C.:  National Climatic Center, 1975.

     3Air impacts associated with population increases are dis-
cussed in Section 7.2.3 as they relate to the scenario (which
includes all facilities constructed according to the hypothesized
schedule).

                               499

-------
particulates.  Although water spray will be used to suppress dust,
some additional particulates will occur from blasting, coal piles,
and blowing dust.1

     Except for HC the power plant is the greatest contributor of
pollutants in all cases.  Both the Synthoil plant and the natural
gas wells exceed the power plant in HC emissions (Table 7-3).
The largest of the primary emission sources, the power plant,  will
have four 750 megawatt-electric (MWe)  boilers, each with its own
stack.2  The plant will be equipped with an electrostatic pre-
cipitator (ESP)  which will remove 99 percent of particulates and
a scrubber which will remove 80 percent of the S02.3  Scrubbers
are thought to remove some'of the NOX generated in the boiler,
but the amount removed is uncertain.  These data represent a range
of 0 to 40 percent NOX removal.  The plant's two 75,000 barrel
oil storage tanks (standard floating roof construction) will each
emit up to 0.7 pound of HC per hour.

     Table 7-4 lists the amounts of particulates, S02, and NOX
expected to be emitted (per million British thermal units [Btu'sj)
from a power plant operating under the previously described con-
ditions.  When compared with federal New Source Performance Stan-
dards (NSPS), the particulates and S02 emitted more than meet
these standards.1*  Whether or not NOX emissions will meet standards
depends on the quantity of NOX removed by scrubbers.  At least 22
percent of the total will have to be removed to meet the standard.
To meet federal NSPS for particulates and S02, the 3,000 MWe power
plant would require 97.5 percent particulate removal; no S02 re-
moval would be required.5

     *The effectiveness of current dust suppression practices is
uncertain.  Research being conducted by the Environmental Protec-
tion Agency  (EPA) is investigating this question.  The issue of
fugitive dust is discussed qualitatively in Chapter 10.

     2Stacks are 500 feet high, have an exit diameter of 30.0
feet, mass flow rates of 2.56 x 106 cubic feet per minute, an
exit velocity of 60 feet per second, and an exit temperature of
180° Fahrenheit.

     3These efficiencies were hypothesized as reasonable esti-
mates of current industrial practices.

     ''NSPS limit the amount of a given pollutant a stationary
source may emit; the limit is expressed relative to the amount
of energy in the fuel burned.


     5Section 109 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of  1977,  Pub.
L.  95-95, 91 Stat.  685, requires both an  emissions  limitation and
a percentage reduction of  S02, particulates,  and NOX.  Revised
standards have not  yet been  established by  the EPA.

                               500

-------
                TABLE  7-3:
EMISSIONS  FROM  FACILITIES
(pounds per hour)
FACILITIES
3,000 MWe Power Plant
Mine3
Plant
Lurgi
Mine
Plant
Synthane
Mine
Plant
Synthoila
Mine
Plant
25 MMtpy Export Coal
Mine (rail)
25 MMtpy Coal Mine
(slurry)
Natural Gas
Production/Processing
Uranium
Surface Mine (open pit)
Mill
Solutional Mine-Mill
PARTICULATES
12. 6b
1,196

N
6b
8
10b
482
13b
13b

2
36 lb
40
N
S02
8.3
6,440

4.6
516
4
3,524
6.8
936.7
8.3
8.3

468
8.9
1.03
N
NOX
0.5
15,812-
26,353°

62
649
54
5,052
92
4,616
113
113

655
123
0.3
N
HC
69
440

39
47d
33
94d
56
1,350
69
69

1,000
U
0.05
U
CO
13.1
1,464

7.3
N
6.3
176
11
181
13
13

2
93.4
U
N
SOa = sulfur dioxide        CO  =  carbon monoxide       MMtpy = million tons
NOX = oxides of nitrogen    MWe = megawatt-electric            per year
HC = hydrocarbons           N = negligible             U = unknown
aSynthoil data have a high uncertainty because of the small capacity of bench
scale, test facilities built to  date.  The Solvent Refined Coal liquefaction
process now appears likely to become commercial sooner, and more reliable
pilot plant data are available.   These data are reported in White, Irvin L.,
et al.  Energy From the West:   Energy Resource Development Systems Report.
Washington, B.C.:  U.S.,  Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming, Chap-
ter 3.

°These particulate emissions do not include fugitive dust.

cRange represents NOX removal of  0 to 40 percent.
^These emissions do not include fugitive hydrocarbons.

                                    501

-------
   TABLE  7-4:
COMPARISON OF EMISSIONS FROM POWER PLANT WITH
NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS
(pounds per million Btu)
POWER PLANT
Particulates
S02*
N0xb
EMISSION
0.04
0.22
0.54-0.90
NSPS
0.1
1.2
0.7
NSPS = New Source Performance
       Standards
Btu = British thermal unit
                        S02  =  sulfur  dioxide
                        NO   =  oxides  of  nitrogen
 The Wyoming State standard for S02 emissions is 0.2 pounds per
million Btu.  Data from White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the
West:  Energy Resource Development Systems Report"Washington,
D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming,
Chapter 2.

 Range represents 0 to 40 percent NOX removal by the scrubber.


     All the coal conversion facilities and the power plant will
be cooled by wet forced-draft cooling towers.  Each of the various
cells in the cooling towers circulates water at a rate of 15,330
gallons per minute (gpm)  and emits 0.01 percent of its water as
a mist.  The circulating water has a total dissolved solids (TDS)
content of 3,870 parts per million (ppm).   This resuilts in a
salt emission rate of 24,600 pounds per year for each cell.1

     Emissions of criteria pollutants from uranium surface and
solutional mines and milling technologies are negligible (Table
7-3).  Radioactive emissions from uranium surface mining include
primarily radon gas (Rn-222) and its daughters.  The amount of
Rn-222 released into the atmosphere is a function of the amount
of overburden and mine surface and varies with mining rates.  For
a 1,200 ton per day (tpd) mine,2 Rn-222 gas release would be about
33.2 curies per year.3


     :In the scenario, the power plant has 64 cells, the Lurgi
plant has 11, the Synthane plant has 6, and the Synthoil plant
has  16.

     20ne thousand two hundred short tons is about equivalent to
1,100 metric tons.

     3White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West:  Energy
Resource Development Systems Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming, Chapter 5.
                              502

-------
     Because uranium solutional mining techniques are still in
the research and development stage, data on this process are not
complete.  Information available on the air emissions of a solu-
tional uranium mine is qualitative and represents gaseous emis-
sions for alkaline leach, solutional uranium mining.  The primary
gaseous emissions are likely to be carbon dioxide (COa), ammonia
(NH3), ammonium chloride (NH^Cl), and uranium oxide  (\J3O8).1  The
primary radioactive air emissions from the 1,000 tpd uranium
mill are Rn-222, estimated to be about 9,000 curies per year.2

7.2.3  Impacts

     This section describes air quality impacts which result from
each type of energy facility (Lurgi, Synthane, Synthoil, power
plant, natural gas plant, uranium facilities, and coal transport
by rail and slurry pipeline) taken separately3 and from a scenario
which includes construction of all facilities according to the
scenario schedule.  For the power plant the effect on air quality
of the hypothesized emission control, alternative emission con-
trols, and alternative stack heights are discussed.  Interactions
among facilities and impacts caused by the expected population
increase are included in the scenario impact discussion.  The
focus is on concentrations of criteria pollutants  (particulates,
S02, NOX/ HC, and CO).  See Chapter 10 for a qualitative descrip-
tion of sulfates, other oxidants, fine particulates, long-range
visibility, plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, and
cooling tower fogging and icing.

     In all cases, air quality impacts result primarily from the
operation rather than the construction of these facilities.  Con-
struction impacts are limited to periodic increases in particulate
concentrations due to windblown dust.  However, since the highest
particulate measurements do not exceed either federal or Wyoming
standards, blowing dust should not cause particulate problems.

A.  Power Plant Impacts

     For power plants, concentrations of criteria pollutants de-
pend greatly on the degree of emission control imposed.  Concen-
trations resulting from the hypothesized case in which control


     :White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West:  Energy
Resource Development Systems Report^Washington, D.C.:U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency,forthcoming, Chapter 5.

     2 Ibid.

     3Air quality impacts caused by the surface coal mines are
expected to be negligible in comparison with impacts caused by
the conversion facilities.  However, the impact of fugitive dust
originating from mines is uncertain and is discussed qualita-
tively in Chapter 10.
                               503

-------
equipment removes 80 percent of the SO2 and 99 percent of the
particulates are discussed first followed by a discussion of the
effect of alternative emission controls and alternative stack
heights.

(1)  Hypothesized Emission Control

     Table 7-5 summarizes the typical and peak concentrations of
four pollutants predicted to be produced by the power plant  (3,000
MWe, 500 foot stack, 80 percent SOa removal, and 99 percent partic-
ulate removal).  These pollutants  (particulates, SOa , NOX, and HC)
are regulated by federal and Wyoming state standards  (Table 7-5).
Peak concentrations from the power plant and its mine are not ex-
pected to violate any federal or Wyoming ambient air standards.

     Table 7-5 also lists prevention of significant deterioration
(PSD)  standards, which are the allowable increments of pollutants
that can be added to areas of relatively clean air (i.e., areas
with air quality better than that allowed by ambient air stan-
dards) .1  "Class I" designation is intended to protect air quality
in the cleanest areas, such as national parks and forests, and
Class III allows deterioration to the level of national ambient
secondary standards.

     No Class II increments are violated by the power plant.
However, several Class I increments are exceeded.  When combined
with its associated mine, peak concentrations from the plant ex-
ceed all short-term (24-hour or less)  Class I increments.  In
addition, typical 3-hour S02 levels from the power plant equal
the allowable Class I increment.

     Since Class I increments are violated by this facility,  it
would have to be located a sufficient distance from any desig-
nated Class I areas to allow dilution of emissions by atmospheric
mixing to allowable concentrations prior to their reaching that
area.   The distance required for this dilution, which varies by
facility type, size, emission controls, and meteorological con-
ditions, establishes what is in effect a "buffer zone" around
Class I areas.  Current EPA regulations would require a buffer
zone of about 44 miles between the power plant and a Class I
boundary.2  Currently, there is no designated Class I area with-
in this buffer zone.


     :PSD standards apply only to particulates and SOa.

     2Buffer zones around energy facilities will not be symmet-
rical because wind direction and strength vary by area and season.
Hence, the direction of Class I areas from energy facilities will
be critical to the size of the buffer zone required.  Note also
that the term buffer zone is in disfavor.  We use it because we
believe it accurately describes the effect of PSD requirements.

                              504

-------
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-------
     Reductions in background visibility (currently, about 70
miles)  may occur infrequently on a short-term basis to between
3 and 10 miles, depending on the amount of S02 converted to par-
ticulates in the atmosphere.1

(2)  Alternative Emission Controls

     The base case control for the Gillette power plant assumed
an S02  scrubber efficiency of 80 percent and an ESP efficiency
of 99 percent.  The effect on ambient air concentrations of three
additional emission control alternatives is illustrated in Table
7-6.  These alternatives include a 95 percent efficient S02
scrubber in conjunction with a 99 percent efficient ESP, an 80
percent efficient SOz scrubber without an ESP, and an alternative
in which neither a scrubber nor an ESP is utilized.

     An examination of Table 7-6 reveals that removal of partic-
ulate control results in violations of Class II PSD increments
for 24-hour and annual total suspended particulates (TSP)  and
and National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)  24-hour TSP
standards.  If no scrubber is utilized, violations of Class II
PSD increments for 3-hour and 24-hour S02 emissions and NAAQS for
3-hour  S02 emissions result.  No violations result from the base
case of 80 percent S02 efficient scrubber and an ESP.

(3)  Alternative Stack Heights

     In order to examine the effects of alternative stack heights
on ambient air quality in the Gillette scenario, worst-case dis-
persion modeling was carried out for a 300-foot stack (lowest
stack height consistent with good engineering practice) , a 500-
foot stack (an average or most frequently used height) ,  and a
1,000-foot stack (a highest stack height).   The results of this
examination are shown in Table 7-7.  Using a 300-foot stack, the
Gillette power plant can operate within all applicable standards.

(4)  Summary of Power Plant Air Impacts

     A 3,000 MWe power plant with a 500 foot stack, 80 percent
SOz removal, and 99 percent particulate removal can meet all ap-
plicable standards (NAAQS, Wyoming, and Class II PSD increments).
The same plant with a 300 foot stack will also meet applicable
standards.  Without a scrubber or particulate control, the plant
would violate all Class II PSD increments (except that for annual
     and several NAAQS.
     1 Short-term visibility impacts were investigated using a
"box-type" dispersion model.  This particular model assumes all
emissions occurring during a specified time interval are uniformly
mixed and confined in a box capped by a lid or stable layer aloft.
A lid of 500 meters was used.  S02 to sulfate conversion rates of
10 percent and 1 percent were modeled.

                               506

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                                                      507

-------
           TABLE  7-7:
AIR QUALITY IMPACTS RESULTING
FROM ALTERNATIVE STACK HEIGHTS
AT GILLETTE POWER PLANT
SELECTED STACK HEIGHTS
(feet)
300
500
1,000
APPLICABLE STANDARDS
NAAQS
(primary)
(secondary)
State standards
Class II PSD Increments
MAXIMUM POLLUTANT
CONCENTRATION (yg/m3)
3-HR. S02
342
323
290
1,300
1,300
512
24-HR. S02
55
47
31
365
260
91
24-HR. TSP
10
8.7
5.7
260
150
150
37
  yg/m3  = micrograms per  cubic meter
  HR.  =  hour
  SO2  =  sulfur  dioxide
  TSP  =  total suspended particulates
  NAAQS  = National  Ambient Air Quality  Standards
  PSD  =  prevention  of  significant  deterioration
B.  Lurgi Impacts

     Typical and peak concentrations from the operation of a Lurgi
gasification plant are summarized in Table 7-8.  Peak concentra-
tions are not expected to violate any federal or Wyoming ambient
air standards nor any Class II PSD increments.  However, peak S02
concentrations from the Lurgi plant exceed the 3-hour Class I PSD
increment.  These PSD violations will require a buffer zone of
7.4 miles for the plant.  Currently there is no designated Class I
area within this buffer zone.

     The effects of alternative stack heights for a Lurgi gasifi-
cation plant on ambient air concentrations are shown in Table
7-9.  No violations of applicable standards will occur with any
of the boiler/dryer stack height combination alternatives.

     A reduction in short-term visibility from current background
visibility of 70 miles to between 17 and 60 miles may occur in-
frequently, depending on the amount of SOz converted to partic-
ulates in the atmosphere.
                              508

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                                     509

-------
           TABLE 7-9:
AIR QUALITY IMPACTS RESULTING
FROM ALTERNATIVE STACK HEIGHTS
AT GILLETTE LURGI FACILITY
SELECTED STACK HEIGHTS
(feet)
150 (dryers)
400 (boilers)
300 (dryers)
500 (boilers)
450 (dryers)
700 (boilers)
APPLICABLE STANDARDS
NAAQS
(primary)
(secondary)
State standards
Class II PSD Increments
MAXIMUM POLLUTANT
CONCENTRATION (yg/m3)
3-HR. S02
47
44
43
1,300
1,300
512
24-HR. SO2
4.9
4.6
2.8
365.0
260.0
91.0
24-HR. TSP
N
N
N
260
150
150
37
  yg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter
  HR.  = hour
  SO2  = sulfur dioxide
  TSP  = total suspended particulates
  N =  no change over background concentrations
  NAAQS = National Ambient Air Quality Standards
  PSD  = prevention of significant deterioration
C.  Synthane Impacts

     Table 7-10 summarizes typical and peak concentrations from
the Synthane gasification plant.   The plant does not violate any
federal or Wyoming ambient air standards nor any Class II PSD
increments.  However, the peak plant concentrations violate Class
I increments for annual, 24-hour, and 3-hour S02.  These pollutant
concentrations would require a buffer zone of less than 5 miles.

     Short-term visibility may be reduced from current background
visibility of 70 miles to between 2 and 11 miles, depending on
the amount of S02 converted to particulates in the atmosphere.
                              510

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D.  Synthoil Impacts

     Table 7-11 lists typical concentrations from the Synthoil
plant, peak concentrations from the plant, and peak concentra-
tions from the plant and mine combination.  These data show that
the only federal and state ambient air quality violation will be
the 3-hour HC ambient standard.  HC concentrations resulting from
the Synthoil plant greatly exceed those allowed.

     The Synthoil plant does not violate any Class II PSD incre-
ments, but the plant and mine combination violates all Class I
increments for S02.  These pollutant concentrations would require
a buffer zone of 13 miles for the Synthoil plant.

     The effects of alternative stack heights for a Synthoil plant
on ambient air concentrations are shown in Table 7-12.  With a
100-foot stack (the lowest alternative stack height), no appli-
cable standards would be violated.

     Worst-case impacts on short-term visibility, expected to
occur infrequently, may reduce background visibility of 70 miles
to between 10 and 28 miles, depending on the amount of SOa con-
verted to particulates in the atmosphere.

E.  Coal Rail Transport Impacts

     Table 7-13 summarizes the concentrations of four pollutants
predicted to be produced by the strip mine for coal rail trans-
port.  The data indicate that the strip mine will not violate any
federal or state ambient standards.

     Peak concentrations attributable to the strip mine for coal
rail transport do not exceed allowable Class II increments.  How-
ever, the Class I increments for 24-hour and 3-hour SOa and 24-
hour particulates are violated.  Current EPA regulations would
require a buffer zone of less than 5 miles between this facility
and a Class I area boundary.

F.  Coal Slurry Pipeline Impacts

     Typical and peak concentrations from the operation of the
strip mine supporting the coal slurry pipeline are summarized in
Table 7-14.  Air impacts from this strip mine are expected to be
similar to those produced by the strip mine for coal rail trans-
port shown in Table 7-13.  Peak concentrations are not expected
to violate any federal or Wyoming ambient air standards.

     No Class II increments are violated by the strip mine.  How-
ever, several Class I increments are exceeded by this facility.
Peak concentrations exceed all short-term (24-hour or less) Class
I increments.  These PSD violations will require a buffer zone of
less than 5 miles for the strip mine, according to current EPA
regulations.
                               512
-------
           TABLE 7-12:
AIR QUALITY IMPACTS RESULTING
FROM ALTERNATIVE STACK HEIGHTS
AT GILLETTE SYNTHOIL PLANT
SELECTED STACK HEIGHTS
(feet)
100
200
300
APPLICABLE STANDARDS
NAAQS
(primary)
(secondary)
State standards
Class II PSD increments
MAXIMUM POLLUTANT
CONCENTRATION (ug/m3)
3-HR. S02
140
109
83
1,300
1,300
512
24-HR. S02
49
31
21
365
260
91
24-HR. TSP
10
6
4.2
260
150
150
37
 yg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter
 HR. = hour
 S02 = sulfur dioxide
 TSP = total suspended particulates
 NAAQS = National Ambient Air Quality Standards
 PSD = prevention of significant deterioration
G.  Natural Gas Impacts

     Table 7-15 summarizes the concentrations of four pollutants
predicted to be produced by the natural gas wells.   These pol-
lutants (S02, particulates, N02,  and HC)  are regulated by federal
and Wyoming state standards.  The data show that, while typical
concentrations from the natural gas wells do not violate ambient
standards, peak concentrations may exceed both the federal and
state HC standards by a factor of more than six.

     Peak concentrations from the natural gas wells do not exceed
allowable Class II increments.  However,  the Class I standards
for 3-hour and 24-hour S02 are exceeded.   This PSD violation
would require a buffer zone of less than 5 miles between this
facility and a Class I area boundary according to current EPA
regulations.
                               514
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H.  Uranium Surface and Solutional Mines and Mill Impacts

     Since emissions of criteria pollutants from uranium facilities
are negligible in comparison to those from coal facilities, ura-
nium facility emissions were not modeled.  The primary radioactive
isotope emitted from uranium milling is Rn-222.  There is no fed-
eral standard for allowable Rn-222 air concentrations.  A rule
of thumb value commonly used as an acceptable level is one pico-
curie per liter (pCi/£) of air (1 picocurie is equal to 10 ~*2
curies).  Thus, the ambient air concentrations that would result
from a 9,000 curie per year emission rate are not known.

I.  Scenario Impacts

(1)  To 1980

     The hypothetical strip mine for coal rail transport and the
natural gas wells will become operational in 1980, and the town of
Gillette is expected to increase its population from 14,000 to
26,650 by I960.1  This increase will contribute to increases in
pollution concentrations from urban sources.  Pollution from
energy-related population increases will result largely from ad-
ditional automobile traffic.  Concentrations have been estimated
from available data on average emissions per person in several
western cities.  Table 7-16 shows predicted concentrations of
five criteria pollutants measured at the center of the town and
at a point 3 miles from the center of town.2  The calculations
indicate that pollution from urban sources will only exceed
standards from HC.  It should be noted that HC standards are
violated regularly in most urban areas.

(2)  To 1990

     By 1990, the power plant, coal slurry pipeline, Lurgi gas-
ification plant, all associated coal mines, and the uranium fa-
cilities will become operational.  Interactions of the pollutants
from the plants are minimal due to the assumed distances between
them.  If the wind blows directly from one plant to another,
plumes may interact.  However, concentrations which result are
less than those produced by either plant and mine combination
when the wind blows from the plant to the mine (peak plant/mine
concentration).  The maximum pollutant concentrations resulting
from the interaction of the power plant and Lurgi gasification
          Section 7.4.3.

     2Pollution concentrations from population increases were
computed under the assumption that urban emissions are directly
proportional to population.

                               518
-------
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-------
facilities (when they are separated by 5 miles)  will not violate
applicable standards.  The plants could have been sited such that
short-term concentrations were highest for the case of plant
interaction.

     Gillette's population increase to 44,500 by 1990 will cause
urban pollutant concentrations to increase to the levels shown
in Table 7-16.  As in the 1980 case, the only federal or state
ambient standard violated is that for HC.

(3)  To 2000

     Two new facilities, a Synthane gasification plant and a
Synthoil liquefaction plant, will become operational between
1990 and 2000.  Maximum pollutant concentrations resulting from
interactions  of the Synthane and Synthoil plants with the power
plant do not violate federal or Wyoming ambient standards.

     Gillette's population will increase to 69,200 by the year
2000, and increased pollution concentrations will be associated
with growth (Table 7-16).  Still, only the HC ambient standard
will be exceeded by this source; no other standard will even be
approached.

J.  Other Air Impacts

     Nine additional categories of potential air impacts have
been examined:  that is, an attempt has been made to identify
sources of pollutants and how energy development may affect lev-
els of these  pollutants during the next 25 years, including sul-
fates, oxidants, fine particulates,  long-range visibility, plume
opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, cooling tower fogging and
icing, trace  element emissions, and fugitive dust emissions.
Although there are likely to be local impacts as a consequence of
these pollutants,  both the available data and knowledge about
impact mechanisms  are insufficient to allow quantitative, site-
specific analyses.  Thus, these are discussed in a more general,
qualitative manner in Chapter 10.

7.2.4  Summary of  Air Impacts

     Eight facilities (a power plant, Lurgi and Synthane gasifi-
cation plants, a Synthoil liquefaction plant, coal rail transport,
coal slurry pipeline, natural gas wells, a uranium mill, and both
a surface and solutional uranium mine)  are projected for the
     *No analytical information is currently available on the
source and formation of nitrates.  See Hazardous Materials Advisory
Committee.  Nitrogenous Compounds in the Environment, EPA-SAB-73-
001.  Washington, B.C.:Government Printing Office, 1973.

                                520
-------
Gillette area.  To meet NSPS,  the 3,000 MWe power plant would
require 97.5 percent particulate removal, no S02 removal, and 22
percent NOX removal.  However, at this level of control, several
federal ambient air standards  and Class II PSD increments would
be violated.

     With 80 percent SC>2 and 99 percent particulate removal and
either a 500 or 300 foot stack height, neither ambient air stan-
dards nor Class II PSD increments will,be exceeded.  When combined
with its associated mine, peak concentrations from the power plant
will exceed short-term Class I increments.  A buffer zone of 44
miles between the plant and Class I area would be required.

     Typical and peak concentrations from both the Lurgi and
Synthane gasification plants will not violate any federal or
Wyoming ambient air standards or Class II PSD increments.  Since
Class I PSD increments will be violated by both plants, buffer
zones of 7.4 miles  (Lurgi) and 5 miles (Sythane) would be required.

     The 3-hour peak HC concentrations which result from the
Synthoil plant will greatly exceed the federal and Wyoming am-
bient air standards.  No other ambient air standards or Class II
PSD increments will be violated.  The violations of Class I PSD
increments would require a buffer zone of 13 miles between the
Synthoil plant and any area designated Class I.

     Typical and peak concentrations from the operation of the
strip mines for coal rail transport and coal slurry pipeline are
not expected to violate any federal or Wyoming ambient air stan-
dards or Class II PSD increments.  However, some Class I PSD in-
crements will be exceeded and would require buffer zones of less
than 5 miles between the mines and an area designated Class I.

     Peak concentrations from the natural gas wells may exceed
both the federal and Wyoming ambient air standards for HC by a
factor of more than six.  No other ambient air standards or Class
II PSD increments will be violated.  The Class I increment for
3-hour SO2 is exceeded and would require a buffer zone of less
than 5 miles.

     Impacts from the uranium mill and its associated surface
mine are expected to be negligible.  Those from a solutional mine
are uncertain.

     If all eight facilities are constructed according to the
hypothesized schedule, population increases in Gillette will add
to existing pollution problems.  Current violations of HC stan-
dards will continue to increase through the year 2000, but no
other violations of ambient standards due to urban sources are
expected in Gillette.
                               521
-------
 7.3  WATER IMPACTS

 7.3.1  Introduction

     As shown in Figure 7-3, Gillette, Wyoming, is located in  a
 water-poor area of the relatively water-rich UMRB.  Surface water
 sources that could supply the needs of energy development at
 Gillette are all a considerable distance away; these include the
 Yellowstone River, its tributaries, and the Belle Fourche1, Green,
 and North Platte Rivers.  In this area, annual rainfall is about
 14 inches, and annual snowfall is about 48 inches, the equivalent
 of an additional 3.2 inches of rainfall.1

     This section identifies the sources and uses of water re-
 quired for energy development, the residuals that will be pro-
 duced, and water availability and quality impacts that are likely
 to result.

 7.3.2  Existing Conditions

A.  Groundwater

     The most productive aquifer systems in the Gillette area are
the deeply buried Madison Limestone aquifer (mostly over 5,000
 feet deep), shallow aquifer systems in the Fort Union and Wasatch
Formations (mostly less than 300 feet deep), and alluvial aquifer
 systems associated with the surface drainage.   Although no esti-
mate is available on the quantity of water stored in these aqui-
 fers (information is especially inadequate for the Madison),
the total volume of groundwater available in the northeast Wyoming
 region without exceeding recharge rates is estimated at 15,000
 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr).2

     The quality of water in the Madison aquifer, as measured by
TDS concentrations,  ranges from less than 500  milligrams per
liter (mg/£)  near recharge areas in the Powder River Basin to
more than 4,000 mg/£ near the Montana-North Dakota line.3
     :The moisture content of 1 inch of rain is equal to approx-
imately 15 inches of snow.

     2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management,
et al.  Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed De-
velopment of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal Basin
of Wyoming, 6 vols.  Cheyenne, Wyo.:  Bureau of Land Management,
1974.

     3Swenson, Frank A.  Possible Development of Water from Madison
Group and Associated Rock in Powder River Basin, Montana-Wyoming.
Denver, Colo.:  Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974, p. 3,

                                522
-------
        Montana
Utah
                           Colorado
                       SUBBASINS

1.   Western Dakota Tributaries    6.
2.   Platte-Niobrara Rivers         7.
3.   Powder River
4.   Bighorn River                  8.
5.   Green River                    9.
                 Yellowstone
                 Upper Missouri
                 River Tributaries
                 Snake River
                 Bear River
        FIGURE 7-3:
SURFACE WATER SOURCES  IN
THE VICINITY OF GILLETTE
                          523
-------
     Water from the Madison has municipal, industrial, domestic,
and livestock uses in the Wyoming region.  Because the Madison is
a limestone aquifer with irregular caverns storing the water, the
productivity of a particular well depends on the number or size
of caverns encountered by the well borehole.  Wells producing
several hundred gpm are common.

     Several alluvial aquifers are present along the streams in
the scenario area.  The aquifer along Donkey Creek, about 5 miles
east of Gillette, is the most productive, having wells that yield
from only a few to as much as several hundred gpm1 at a depth of
from 3 to 20 feet.2  Water quality of these alluvial aquifers is
generally only fair,3 and the water is presently used only for
livestock and domestic purposes.

     The most important aquifers in the Gillette area are in the
shallow bedrock Fort Union and Wasatch Formations.  These aquifers
are in coal beds and lens-like sandstone bodies interbedded with
shales.  Wells yield up to 100 gpm in the Fort Union Formation
and up to 500 gpm in the Wasatch Formation."  Water taken from
these formations is used for livestock and domestic purposes as
well for 95 percent of Gillette's municipal water supply.5  Water
quality is variable, with a generally lower concentration of TDS
than the alluvial aquifers.6
     Wyoming, State Engineer's Office.  A Report from the
Wyoming Water Planning Program.  Cheyenne, Wyo.:   Wyoming, State
Engineer's Office, 1972, p. 61.

     2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management,
et al.   Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed De-
velopment of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal Basin
of Wyoming,6 vols.Cheyenne,Wyo.:Bureau of Land Management,
1974, p. 1-95.

     3TDS range from about 500 to more than 2,000 mg/£, but most
water ranges from 1,000 to 1,500 mg/Jl.  Ibid. , p. 1-199.

     ^Wyoming, State Engineer's Office.  Water Planning Program.

     5Northern Great Plains Resources Program, Water Work Group,
Ground Water Subgroup.  Shallow Ground Water in Selected Areas in
the Fort Union Coal Region, Open File Report 74-48.Helena, Mont.:
U.S.,Department of the Interior, Geological Survey, 1974, p. 35.

     6The TDS content ranges from 300 to more than 2,000 mg/£,
but the range of most bedrock aquifer water in the Powder River
Basin is limited to 500-1,500 mg/£ dissolved solids.  BLM.  FEIS:
Eastern Powder River Coal Basin, p. 1-130.

                               524
-------
B.  Surface Water

     As shown in Figure 7-3, Gillette, Wyoming is located approxi-
mately on the divides of several major watersheds:  The Belle
Fourche, Little Powder, Cheyenne, and Powder River Basins.  There-
fore, as. energy development takes place around Gillette, the
water needs could be met from several of these sources.

     The water supply situation is complicated by the Yellowstone
and the Belle Fourche Compacts.1  The Yellowstone Compact was
negotiated between Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota to control
water allocations in the Yellowstone River Basin.  The compact
recognizes all water rights existing in the basin as of January 1,
1950, and provides for the division of all remaining (unallocated)
flow.  Flow in the tributaries to the Yellowstone is divided as
shown in Table 7-17.

     However, an important provision within the compact states
that no water will be diverted out of the basin without the con-
sent of the signatory states.  As Gillette is outside the Yellow-
stone Basin, this provision will directly affect the availability
of water to energy development.

     Water appropriations in the Belle Fourche River are governed
by a compact between Wyoming and South Dakota.  This compact
states that all water unappropriated as of February 1944 is al-
located 10 percent to Wyoming and 90 percent to South Dakota.
There are several intermittent streams in the scenario area.  Al-
though there are no data on these streams, it is doubtful that
they have enough flow to supply water for energy development.
For example, Gillette is located on Donkey Creek, an ephemeral
tributary of the Bell Fourche River, but the drainage area of
the creek above Gillette is only 0.28 square mile.

     The availability of water to meet energy development demands
is shown in Table 7-18.  Surface water would be available from
several distant sources, including the Yellowstone River and its
tributaries, the Belle Fourche, Cheyenne, Little Missouri, Green,
and North Platte Rivers, and Lake Oahe (on the Upper Missouri
in South Dakota).

7.3.3  Factors Producing Impacts

     The water requirements of and effluents from energy facil-
ities cause water impacts.  These requirements and effluents are
identified in this section for each type of energy facility.
Associated population increases also increase municipal water
demand and sewage effluent; these are presented in Section 7.3.4


     Yellowstone River Compact of 1950,  Pub. L. 82-231, 65 Stat.
663 (1951); and Belle Fourche River Compact of 1943, Pub. L. 78-
236, 58 Stat. 94 (1944).
                               525
-------
              TABLE 7-17:
                           LEGAL DIVISION OF FLOW:
                           YELLOWSTONE RIVER
                           TRIBUTARIES

TRIBUTARY
Clarks Fork
Bighorn
Tongue
Powder
WYOMING
(percent)
60
80
40
42
MONTANA
(percent)
40
20
60
58
for the scenario which includes all facilities constructed ac-
cording to the scenario schedule.

A.  Water Requirements of Energy Facilities

     The water requirements of energy facilities included in the
Gillette scenario are shown in Table 7-19.   Two sets of data are
presented.  The Energy Resource Development System  (ERDS) Report
data are based on secondary sources, including impact statements,
Federal Power Commission docket filings, and recent published data
accumulations,1 and can be considered typical requirement levels.
The Water Purification Associates data are from a study on minimum
water-use requirements and take into account certain opportunities
to recycle water on site as well as the moisture content of the
coal being used and local meteorological data.2

     As indicated in Table 7-19, the power plant requires more
water than the other facilities if wet cooling is used (the high
wet case in Table 7-19 or 25,842 acre-ft/yr).  By using a com-
bination of wet and dry cooling  (i.e., intermediate wet cooling),
water requirements can be reduced by 75 percent to 6,465

     JThe ERDS Report is based on data drawn from:  University of
Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program.   Energy Alternatives;
A Comparative Analysis.  Washington, D.C.:   Government Printing
Office, 1975; and Radian Corporation.  A Western Regional Energy
Development Study, Final Report, 4 vols.  Austin, Tex.:  Radian
Corporation, 1975.  These data are published in White, Irvin L.,
et al.   Energy From the West:  Energy Resource Development Systems
         Washington, D.C.:
Report,
forthcoming.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,
     2Gold, Harris, et al.  Water Requirements for Steam-Electric
Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United
sTates.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,
1977.
                              526
-------
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                                                                      527
-------
     TABLE  7-19:
WATER REQUIREMENTS  FOR ENERGY  FACILITIES
AT  GILLETTE
 (acre-feet per  year)



TECHNOLOGY3
Power Generation
Gasfication
Lurgi
Syn thane
Liquefaction
Synthoil6
Coal Slurry
Gas Wells
Uranium
Solutional Uranium Mine
Surface Mine-Mill



Synthetic Fuels
Facilities
Power Plant


ERDS^
WET COOLING
29,400

6,714
9,090

17,460
13,390
380

200
1,350
WPAC
COMBINATION OF WET AND DRY COOLING

HIGH WET
25,842

5,823
7,776

9,227
NC
NC

NC
NC
INTERMEDIATE WET
6,465

4,206
5,875

7,539
NC
NC

NC
NC
MININUM WET
NC

3,721
5,484

7,026
NC
NC

NC
NC
Cost Range in Which Indicated Cooling
Technology Is Most Economic
(dollars per thousand gallons)

NC
NC

< 1.50
<3. 65-5. 90

2.00
>3. 65-5. 90

>2.00
NC
ERDS = Energy Resource Development System
WPA = Water Purification Associates
NC = not considered
                               less than
                               greater than
 These values  assume an annual load factor of 75 percent in  the case of the 3,000 megawatt-
electric power plant and  90 percent in the case of a 250 million cubic feet per day Lurgi and
Synthane facilities and 100,000 barrel per day Synthoil  facility.

 White, Irvin  L.,  et al.  Energy From the West:  Energy  Resource Development Systems Report.
Washington,  D.C.:  U.S.,  Environmental Protection Agency,  forthcoming.

GGold, Harris, et  al.  Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic.
Fuel Plants  in the Western United States.Washington,D.C.:U.S.,Environmental Protection
Agency, 1977.

 Combinations  of wet and  wet/dry cooling were obtained by examining the economics of cooling
alternatives for the turbine condensers and gas compressor interstage coolers.  In the high wet
case, these  are all wet cooled; in the intermediate case,  wet cooling handles 10 percent of the
load on the  turbine condensers and all of the load in the interstage coolers; in the minimum
practical wet  case, wet cooling handles 10 percent of the cooling  load on the turbine condens-
ers and 50 percent of  the load in the interstage coolers.   For power plants, only variations
on the steam turbine condenser load were considered practical; thus, only high wet and inter-
mediate wet  cases  are  examined.

eSynthoil data have a  high uncertainty because of the small capacity of bench scale test facil-
ities built  to date.   The Solvent Refined Coal liquefaction process now appears likely to be-
come commercial sooner, and more reliable pilot plant data are available.  These data are re-
ported in White et al.  Energy From the West:  ERDS Report,  Chapter 3.
                                           528
-------
acre-ft/yr.  For synthetic fuels facilities the intermediate wet
cooling system could save between 19 (Synthoil) and 28 percent
(Lurgi) of the water required for a high wet (i.e., all wet) sys-
tem.  From an economic standpoint, the decision as to which pro-
cess to use will depend on the availability and price of water.
In the case of the power plant, high wet cooling is economically
attractive if water costs less than $3.65 to $5.90 per thousand
gallons.  If water costs more than $3.65 to $5.90 per thousand
gallons, intermediate wet cooling would be the most attractive
alternative.  For synthetic fuels facilities, high wet cooling
would be most attractive if water costs less than $1.50 per thou-
sand gallons.  If water costs increase to about $1.50 per thou-
sand gallons, intermediate wet cooling would be the economical
choice.  Minimum wet cooling (i.e., maximum dry cooling) would
save from 6  (Synthoil) to 8 percent (Lurgi) more water than in-
termediate wet cooling and would become economically attractive
if water costs more than $2.00 per thousand gallons.

     If water costs only $0.25 per thousand gallons but interme-
diate wet cooling is utilized in order to conserve water, the in-
creased cost of synthetic fuels would be about one cent per million
Btu of fuel produced more than if high wet cooling were used.  If
water costs  $0.25 per thousand gallons and intermediate wet cooling
rather than high wet cooling is chosen for the power plant, the
economic penalty is 0.1 to 0.2 cents per kilowatt hour.

     About 200 acre-feet of water per year will be used to leach
the yellowcake at the solutional uranium facility.  The water
will be pumped into the uranium ore deposits as a leaching solu-
tion through insertion wells.  The leaching solution and dis-
solved uranium is then pumped to a processing mill via production
wells.  More than half of the total water requirement is for
postleaching aquifer restoration.  Techniques for restoration of
the aquifer include:  total water removal; water removal, clean-
up, and recycle; and solutional restoration.  In the case of water
removal, clean-up, and recycle, contaminated water is pumped from
the aquifer, treated above ground, and then reinjected into the
aquifer where it originated.  The scenario reported here assumes
this option for aquifer restoration.  Most of the water needed
for the solutional uranium mine will be generated as a part of
the solutional leaching and aquifer restoration operations.  Ad-
ditional wells may be drilled on-site.1

     Figure 7-4 indicates the manner in which water is consumed
by the hypothesized energy facilities.  As indicated, more water
is used for cooling than for processing and solids disposal com-
bined.  Solids disposal consumes comparable quantities of water
          White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West:  Energy
Resource Development Systems Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming, Chapter 5.

                               529
-------
           ERDS
 (8
 
-------
        TABLE 7-20:  WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR RECLAMATION'

MINE
Power Plant
Lurgi
Synthane
Sythoil
Rail
Transport
Slurry
Pipeline
Total

ACRES
DISTURBED/YEAR
110
85
85
110
220
220
830
MAXIMUM
ACRES UNDER
IRRIGATION
550
425
425
550
1,110
1,110
4,170
WATER
REQUIREMENTS
(acre-ft/yr)
415
320
415
415
825
825
3,215
     acre-ft/yr = acre-feet per year

     aBased on an irrigation rate of 9 inches per year for 5
     years, which is the difference between water demand of
     native grasses and average precipitation.  See U.S.,
     Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.
     Resource and Reclamation Evaluation;  Otter Creek Study
     Site, EMRIA Report No. 1.  Billings, Mont.:  Bureau of
     Land Management, 1975.
for all technologies, varying primarily as a function of the ash
content of the feedstock coal.

     In addition to the energy facility water requirements, the
associated mines that provide feedstock coal will also require
water.  If reclamation of surface mined lands includes irrigation,
most of the water requirements for mining will be for reclamation
(see Table 7-20).

     Assuming the legal restraints of the various compacts can be
favorably resolved, several pipeline or aqueduct schemes for
supplying Gillette with water have been evaluated by industry and
government agencies.  Figure 7-5 shows some of these schemes.
Table 7-21 presents representative flow data at possible diver-
sion points from these rivers and some water quality parameters
of interest.

     The cost of transporting water to the energy development will
depend on several factors, including the route selected and the
volume of flow.  Cost figures for some of those diversions are
shown in Table 7-22.
                               531
-------
                      MONTANA
FIGURE 7-5:
WATER PIPELINES  FOR ENERGY FACILITIES
IN THE GILLETTE  SCENARIO
                        532
-------
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                                                                               533
-------
               TABLE 7-22:
ALTERNATIVE WATER SUPPLY
COSTS FOR GILLETTE3

SERVICE AREA
Gillette, Wyoming
vicinity and south




WATER SOURCES
Bighorn River
Bighorn River
Yellowstone
River
Missouri River
Green River

DIVERSON
POINT
Bighorn Lake
Hardin, Montana
Miles City,
Montana
Oahe Reservoir,
South Dakota
Rock Springs,
Wyoming
COST PER
ACRE-FOOT
(dollars)
270
250
220
294
235
      Source:  Gibbs,  Phil Q.  "Availability of Water for Coal Conversion,"
      Preprint No. 2561.  Paper presented at the American Society of
      Civil Engineers  National Convention, Denver, Colorado, November
      1975.
      *3
      Assumptions - 8 percent interest
                   8 mills/kilowatt hour for pumping
                   40 year repayment of capital costs
                   Flow 300,000-600,000 acre-feet per year
     The cost  required to bring large quantities of water  into
Gillette may be  such that only a federal  organization, such  as
the Bureau  of  Reclamation, would be able  to finance the construc-
tion.  However,  a consortium of private companies might fund a
water system for all the developments and thus be able to  take
advantage of economies of scale.  In effect,  this could mean that
the timing  of  facility completions and subsequent start-ups  would
be at more  defined intervals.  Several facilities might come on
line at the same time to match the completion 6f an increment of
the water supply system.  Although the costs shown in Table  7-22
are for a 300,000-600,000 acre-ft/yr delivery rate, this volume
may not be  provided in one step.  Alternatively, individual  in-
dustries may provide their own water supply systems.  The  cost  of
individual  systems would be higher but might still be within the
economic limits  of project feasibility.
                                534
-------
     In the immediate vicinity of Gillette, the Madison aquifer
is too deep (10,000-14,000 feet)1 for economical use, but about
50 miles to the east the aquifer is only about 1,500 feet from
the surface and thus could be economically tapped and pumped by
pipeline to the Gillette area.  Such a system could be used to
supply some of the water needs for energy development.

     The water supply system postulated for this scenario assumes
that, rather than a single water-supply pipeline, the industries
will use various surface and groundwater sources, and water will
be pumped to the industrial site.  The Lurgi and Synthane gasifi-
cation plants and the power plant will draw water from the Yellow-
stone River at Miles City.  The Synthoil liquefaction plant and
coal slurry facility will take water from the North Platte River
near Douglas.  Water for the rail transport facility will be
taken from local, shallow aquifers in the Fort Union Formation.
This water will be obtained from mine dewatering operations.
Water for the uranium mill and the natural gas plant will be with-
drawn from the Madison limestone aquifer in the vicinity of
Sundance.

B.  Effluents from Energy Facilities

(1)  Coal conversion facilities

     The expected amounts of solid effluents produced by coal con-
version facilities in the Gillette scenario are shown in Table
7-23.  The greatest amount of solid effluents will be produced
by the Synthoil plant (more than 2,500 tpd).  The 3,000 MWe power
plant will produce more than 2,300 tpd of solid effluents, and
Synthane and Lurgi plants are each expected to produce more than
1,350 tons of solid effluents per day.  The power plant will
produce the largest total quantity of dissolved and dry solids
(50 and 1,303 tpd), and the Synthoil plant will produce the most
wet solids (1,250 tpd).

     Dissolved solids are present in the ash blowdown effluent,
the demineralizer waste effluent, and the flue gas desulfurization
     ^wenson, Frank A.  Possible Development of Water from
Madison Group and Associated Rock in Powder River Basin, Montana-
Wyoming .  Denver, Colo.:  Northern Great Plains Resources Program,
1974.

                               535
-------
    TABLE  7-23:
EFFLUENTS  FROM  ENERGY  CONVERSION  FACILITIES
AT  GILLETTE3
FACILITY TYPE
Coalc
Lurgi
(250 MMcfd)
Syn thane
(250 MMcfd)
Synthoil
(100,000 bbl/day)
Electric Power
(3,000 MW)
Uraniumd
Surface Mine
(1,100 mtpd)
Mill
(1,000 mtpy)
Solutional Mine-Mill
(250 tpy)
Natural Gas
(250 MMcfd)
SOLIDS3 (tons per day)
DISSOLVED
25
25
20
50
0.8-3.8
g
7.0
0
WET
1,186
321
1,250
958
0.3
6g
2.2
0
DRY
154
1,014
1,249
1,303
Oe
1,000
0.7-1.4h
0
TOTAL
1,365
1,360
2,519
2,311
1.2-5.1£
1,006
9.8-10.5
0
WATER IN EFFLUENTb
(acre-feet per year)
681
924
864
1,827
500-1,600
500
125
0
MMcfd = million cubic  feet  per  day
bbl/day = barrels per  day
MW = megawatt
                      mtpd = metric tons per day
                      mtpy =' metric tons per year
                      tpy = tons per year
aThese values are  given  for  a day when the facility is operating at full  load.   In  order  to  ob-
tain yearly values,  these  numbers must be multiplied by 365 days and by the  average load  factor.
Load factors are 90  percent  for synthetic fuels facilities and 70 percent for power plants.   The
values given as solids do  not include the weight of the water in which the solids are  suspended
or dissolved.

bThe values for water discharged are annual and take into account the load factor.

cThese data are from Radian  Corporation.  The Assessment of Residuals Disposal for  Steam-Electric
Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States.   Austin, Tex.:   Radian
Corporation,1978.The  Radian Corporation report extends and is based on earlier analyses con-
ducted by Water Purification Associates and reported in Gold, Harris, et  al.   Water Requirements
for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States.
Washington,D.C.:U.S:,Environmental Protection Agency,1977.

 Calculated from data reported in the Corps of Engineers Discharge Permit Applications.

eOverburden could  be considered a dry solid effluent.  Since it is placed back in the  mine,  it
is not included here.

£Total is not the  sum of dissolved and wet because it includes volatile solids.

^Dissolved and wet solids  are included in wet column.

hTailings calculated as  1-2  pounds of dry waste per  pound of yellowcake where 250 tons of yellow-
cake  per year is 1,370  pounds  per  day.
                                             536
-------
effluent.l  The principal constitutents of wastewater (which ap-
pear as dissolved solids) are calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate,
and chlorine.

     Wet solids from electric power and Lurgi or Synthane gasifi-
cation facilities are in the form of flue gas sludge, bottom ash,
and cooling tower treatment waste sludge.  Bottom ash is the pri-
mary constituent of wet solids produced by a Synthoil facility.
Calcium carbonate (CaC03) and calcium sulfate (CaSOiJ are the
primary constituents of flue gas sludge.  Bottom ash is primarily
oxides of aluminum and silicon.  CaCO3 is the principal constit-
uent of the cooling water treatment waste sludge.  In all cases,
the amount of cooling water treatment waste is very small, com-
pared to the amount of bottom ash and flue gas sludge.

     Dry solids produced by coal conversion processes are pri-
marily fly ash composed of oxides of aluminum, silicon, and iron.

     Dissolved and wet solids are transported to evaporative
holding ponds and later deposited in a landfill.  Dry solids are
treated with water to prevent dusting and deposited in a landfill.2

     The water in the effluent stream accounts for between 5
(Synthoil)  and 10 percent (Lurgi and Synthane) of the total water
requirements of the individual coal conversion facilities (water
effluent given in Table 7-23 compared to water requirements in
Table 7-19).

(2)  Uranium Facilities

     Only the uranium mill produces a significant quantity of
solids in the form of mill tailings (Table 7-23) , but these are
still less than solids from coal plants.  Water effluent from
the surface mine will be ponded.  Mill tailings will be disposed
of in a landfill.  Ponded water has a radium-226  (Ra-226) content
of about 100 pCi/£, whereas groundwater is generally about 3.3


     JNote that all coal conversion processes generate electic-
ity on-site, thus flue gas cleaning, ash handling, and deminerali-
zation are required for all.  One exception is the Synthoil pro-
ess which uses clean fuel gas for power generation; flue gas
cleaning is not required for it.  Demineralization is a method
of preparing water for use in boilers; it produces an effluent
composed of chemicals present in the source water.  The ash blow-
down stream is the water used to remove bottom ash from the boiler.
Bottom ash removal is done via a wet sluicing system using cooling
tower blowdown water.  Thus, the dissolved solids content of the
stream is composed of chemicals from the ash and cooling water.

     2The environment problems associated with solid waste dis-
posal in holding ponds and landfills are discussed in Chapter 10.

                               537
-------
pCi/&.  In order to prevent groundwater contaminants, the radium
is treated in the pond, precipitated, and later transferred to a
landfill along with the mill tailings.

     Effluents from the solutional uranium leaching operation are
similar to those from the mill, except that mill tailings are re-
duced significantly  (Table 7-23).   A solutional facility produces
1 to 2 pounds of tailings per pound of yellowcake, whereas a nor-
mal milling operation produces 300 pounds of tailings per pound
of yellowcake.

7.3.4  Impacts

     This section describes water impacts which result from the
coal surface mines, gas wells, conversion facilities, coal rail
transport, coal slurry pipeline, and uranium facilities and from
the combination of facilities in the Gillette scenario.  The
water requirements and impacts associated with expected popula-
tion increases are included in the scenario impact description.

A.  Coal, Uranium, and Gas Extraction Impacts

     The surface coal mines may have several disturbing effects
on the local Fort Union Formation aquifers.  The coal mines will
probably intersect either perched or water-table aquifers and
disrupt aquifer flow patterns.  If the mine is below the water
table (the coal seams are aquifers in parts of the Fort Union
Formation), mine dewatering will be necessary, and depletion of
the aquifers will result.  Discharges from mine dewatering proba-
bly will not exceed 500 gpm.  Local springs and seeps on hill-
sides may dry up, and water levels in local wells may be lowered.
Additionally, the base flow of streams in the area may be reduced,
To comply with the zero-discharge provisions of current legisla-
tion, water from dewatering will be used for dust control and
washing or will be reinjected in Fort Union aquifers far enough
down-gradient to prevent recycling of water to the mine.  Thus,
the only loss to the aquifers will be local.  After the coal
slurry pipeline begins operation in 1985, reinjection can be dis-
continued, and the water from dewatering can be piped to the
slurry preparation plant for use as process water.

     Depending on the composition of the overburden, weathering
and oxidation of the spoil material may result in the release of
contaminants.  Both natural precipitation and water added for re-
vegetation may pick up the contaminants and transport them into
local aquifers.  Aquifers in the immediate mine area will be af-
fected the most.  Aquifers in coal beds that are mined will be
destroyed, and aquifers in the overburden will experience large
changes in such properties as porosity and permeability.  No al-
luvial aquifers are close enough to the mine to be affected by
mining operations.


                               538
-------
     Surface water drainage patterns will be affected by mine ex-
cavations, some of which will trap runoff.  Unless these mines are
pumped out regularly, some of the impounded water may eventually
percolate into the groundwater system but should not produce any
significant impacts.  Losses in runoff due to mine excavation are
not expected to be significant locally because area streams are
ephemeral and runoff flow would quickly dry up in any case.

     As the mines continue to operate, reclamation efforts will
increase and larger water requirements must be satisfied.  This
could be accomplished by the use of water from mine dewatering
and from wastewater treatment plant effluent at Gillette (see
Table 7-22).

     Solutional uranium leaching operations will produce impacts
on both surface and groundwater systems.  Construction activities
will remove vegetation and disturb soils over a small area.
Drilling activities will cause intermittent disturbances of sur-
face water.   The potential exists for excessive sediment delivery
during storms to Willow Creek and the Powder River.  However, due
to the present sparse vegetation and current high rate of sediment
delivery during storms, significant impacts from the facility's
construction are not anticipated.

     Wastes from the solutional uranium mining facility will be
stored in plastic-lined, temporary retention ponds on the site.
The liquid will be allowed to evaporate, and no effluent will be
discharged to surface waters.  Another disposal alternative would
be to use the liquid wastes for irrigation.  The possibility of
mineralogical and radiological pollution of the Powder River makes
this an unlikely alternative.

     Impacts on the groundwater system can occur from the subsur-
face solutional leaching process or from the leaching of residuals
generated from the processing of the ore at a disposal site.  The
most significant potential impacts relate to reductions in the
water quality of the Wasatch aquifer.

     The gas wells will have little or no impact on local surface
water or groundwater systems, provided that proper well drilling
and completion practices are used.

B.  Energy Conversion Facilities and Coal Export Impacts

     Annual average water requirements (assuming expected load
factors and high wet cooling, see Table 7-19)  range from a low
for Lurgi gasification of 5,823 acre-ft/yr to a high for a power
plant of 25,842 acre-ft/yr.  Any one facility, then, would with-
draw a small percentage of the Yellowstone River's average annual
flow of 8,200,000 acre-ft/yr.  On the other hand, worst case con-
ditions, when a facility is operating at the expected load factor
on a day when its water source was at low flow, could be signif-
icant.   Low flow on the Yellowstone is 5,135 cubic feet per


                               539
-------
second (cfs) and on the North Platte is 176 cfs (Table 7-21).l
Withdrawals by any one energy facility operating at the expected
load factor range from 0.1 to 0.7 percent of the Yellowstone's
low flow and from 4.8 to 21.3 percent of the North Platte1s low
flow (Lurgi and a power plant respectively).  Since each of the
facilities will have on-site reservoirs, withdrawals could be
reduced during low-flow periods when the plants would draw from
the reservoirs.

     The situation in the North Platte could be further amelio-
rated if water were released into it from upstream reservoirs
(such as the Pathfinder Reservoir or Seminole Reservoir).   Alter-
natively, water could be conveyed from the Green River to the
North Platte to augment flows or to supply water to the facilities
(see Figure 7-6).   The impact of these withdrawals on the North
Platte River during low-flow periods could be significant both in
terms of flow depletion and from salt-concentrating effects.  Al-
ternate surface sources (such as a pipeline from Lake Oahe on the
Upper Missouri River in South Dakota)  or the use of groundwater
to meet part of the needs may be necessary.  Since the Gillette
coal slurry and Synthoil facilities are outside the Yellowstone
River Basin, Wyoming cannot transfer Yellowstone River water to
the facilities without the consent of Montana and North Dakota.
In any case, Wyoming can only use water that has been allocated
to it by the Yellowstone Compact.  Agreements will have to be
made for Wyoming to remove water from the Yellowstone River in
Montana.

     The uranium mine and facilities will use local groundwater,
i.e., the Madison aquifer in the vicinity of Sundance, and are
therefore not expected to have a significant impact on surface
water.  The mill's withdrawal of 1,350 acre-ft/yr of water  (Table
7-19) may contribute to the depletion of the Madison aquifer.
About 1,000 tpd of solid wastes in the form of processing tail-
ings will be produced by the uranium mill  (Table 7-23).  These
tailings will be disposed of in tailings ponds that will also be
used for the disposal of liquid and solid chemical and radiolog-
ical wastes.2  These wastes may pose a particularly large hazard
to local aquifers should the tailings ponds leak.   The degree of
the hazard depends on the chemistry and radiology of the tailings
and other wastes deposited in the ponds.  The effectiveness of
any pond liners provided will also strongly influence the degree
of hazard.

     No significant impact on surface water is' expected from other
plant effluents because discharge technology that meets the goals
of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972


     *For comparison with withdrawals given in Table 7-19, 5,135
cfs converts to 3,720,000 acre-ft/yr and 176 cfs converts to
127,512 acre-ft/yr; in general, 724.5 acre-ft/yr equals 1.0 cfs.


                               540
-------
will be used.  Pollution prevention systems include the discharge
of all effluents into clay-lined, on-site evaporative holding
ponds to prevent contamination of local surface water or ground-
water systems, although pond liners may leak pollutants to local
aquifers.1  Runoff retention facilities will also be used.

C.  Scenario Impacts

     Water impacts resulting from interactions among the hypoth-
esized facilities and their associated mines and water impacts
resulting from associated population increases are discussed in
this section.

     Water requirements for direct use by these hypothesized
energy facilities (assuming high wet cooling) will be at least
56,400 acre-ft/yr in 1990 when the power plant, Lurgi plant, coal
slurry pipeline, uranium mine and mill, solutional uranium mine-
mill, and natural gas production are operating, and 82,900 acre-
ft/yr in 2000 when all hypothesized scenario facilities are
operating.  Additional water (about 5 percent of the water re-
quirement for the facilities in 2000) may be required for mine
reclamation purposes.

     Most of the municipal water supply will probably be taken
from groundwater supplies.  Although the water supply for Gillette
is presently derived from a local well field, water probably will
be pumped in the future from the Madison aquifer in the vicinity
of Sundance.  Additional water for Casper will be obtained by
increased development of existing sources.  Water requirements
for increased population growth are shown in Table 7-24.

     Wastewater from the energy facilities which will be impounded
in evaporation ponds will average 4,100 acre-ft/yr by 1990 and
5,900 acre-ft/yr by 2000.2

     Rural populations are assumed to use individual, on-site
waste disposal facilities (septic tanks and drainfields), and
the urban population will require waste treatment facilities.
The current status of wastewater treatment facilities in the
municipalities most affected by energy development activities is
indicated in Table 7-25.  Increases in wastewater resulting from
energy development-induced population increases are portioned as
shown in Table 7-26.

     New wastewater treatment facilities adequate to meet the
demands generated by these hypothetical developments and the


     :See Chapter 10 for a discussion of the environmental prob-
lems associated with evaporative holding ponds.
     2Values from Table 7-23.
                               541
-------
TABLE 7-24:
EXPECTED WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR INCREASED POPULATION
(acre-feet per year)a
YEAR
1980
1990
2000
RURALb
CAMPBELL
COUNTY
85
170
286
GILLETTE0
3,400
8,198
14,873
CASPERd
490
1,510
2,370
TOTAL
3,975
9', 878
17,529
          aAbove 1975 level,

          bBased on 80 gallons per capita per day.

          cBased on 240 gallons per capita per day.

          BBased on 200 gallons per capita per day.   U.S.,
          Department of the Interior, Geological Survey.
          Estimated Use of Water in the United States in
          1970,  Circular 676.   Washington, D.C.:
          ment Printing Office, 1972.
                                     Govern-
associated population increases should be planned for Gillette
by 1980.  These facilities must use the "best practicable" waste
treatment technology to conform to 1983 standards and must allow
for recycling or zero discharge of pollutants (ZDP)  to meet 1985
goals.1  The 1985 goal could be met by using effluents from the
waste treatment facility for industrial process make-up water or
for irrigating local farmland.  The energy development postulated
in this scenario should not require any increase in wastewater
treatment capacity for Casper.

(1)  To 1980

     The gas wells and the coal mine for rail transport will be
constructed and in operation by 1980.  The mine which will dis-
turb about 200 acres per year will trap-runoff and thus affect
the local ephemeral stream drainage pattern.  Prior to 1980,
revegetation will not have been initiated, and water will be re-
quired only for dust suppression.  Trapped runoff in conjunction
with water from dewatering operations will be used for dust sup-
pression.  By 1980, natural gas production will require 380 acre-
ft/yr of water (Table 7-19); this quantity is assumed to be with-
drawn from the Madison aquifer.


     federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, §§
101, 301, 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311  (Supp. 1976).
                               542
-------
       TABLE  7-25:  WASTEWATER TREATMENT  CHARACTERISTICS
                      OF COMMUNITIES  AFFECTED BY  ENERGY
                      DEVELOPMENT AT  GILLETTE3
                         GILLETTE
                                         CASPER
 Type of
   Treatment

 Design Load
 Current Load
 Future Plans
Extended Aeration

1.2 MMgpd
(1.6 with modification)
1.3 MMgpd

Powder River Areawide Planning
Organization in Sheridan doing
208b planning; Step 1 of 201 is
being donec
Adding secondary  treatment
to existing  facility

10 MMgpd
7 MMgpd
None at present
MMgpd = million gallons per day

aWater Quality Division of Department  of Environmental Quality.

^Refers to Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, Pub. L.
92-500, §  208, 33 U.S.C.A. § 1288 (Supp. 1976), which encourages  areawide
waste treatment management.

clbid., §  201, 33 U.S.C.A. § 1281 (Supp. 1976), which provides grants for
construction of treatment works.
              TABLE 7-26:   EXPECTED WASTEWATER FLOWS
                             FROM INCREASED POPULATION
INCREASED FLOW ABOVE 1975 LEVEL
(million gallons per day)
YEAR
1980
1990
2000
GILLETTE3
1.01
2.44
4.42
CASPERb
0.20
0.61
0.95
                   a80 gallons per  capita per day .

                   °90 gallons per  capita per day.
                                  543
-------
     The increase in population associated with the Gillette sce-
nario will require an additional 4,000 acre-ft/yr of water by
1980 (see Table 7-24) . l  This additional water will be taken
either from local aquifers in the Fort Union Formation or from
the Madison aquifer in the vicinity of Sundance.  A well or well
field capable of producing about 870 gpm will be required.  This
well represents a significant withdrawal, especially from the lo-
cal Fort Union aquifers.   Some of the population increase will
take place in rural areas, rather than in Gillette.  The increased
withdrawal of groundwater at individual homesites is not expected
to be significant.

     Contamination of local bedrock aquifers from septic tank sys-
tems associated with rural homesites may pose a significant water
quality problem where the housing and septic tank densities become
great enough to exceed the natural renovation capacity of the sub-
strata.  The Gillette area has an expansive clay soil that is not
especially desirable for septic tank drainage fields and may be-
come clogged or overloaded.

     The increased capacity requirement for wastewater treatment
will be about one million gallons per day (MMgpd).   This will
necessitate construction of a new treatment facility at Gillette
or expansion of the existing facility.  Unless new facilities
come on-line to meet these requirements, some surface water pol-
lution may result from overloads and/or bypasses.

(2)   To 1990

     The coal mines and energy conversion and transportation
facilities for the slurry pipeline, the 3,000 MWe power plant,
the Lurgi high-Btu gasification plant, the uranium mine and pro-
cessing mill, and the solutional uranium facility will be in
operation by 1985.

     By 1990, the coal mines for the facilities in operation will
have disturbed a total of 4,275 acres (calculated from Table 7-20).
Total annual water consumption will be 56,400 acre-ft/yr of which
36,100 will be withdrawn from the Yellowstone.River  (for the power
plant and Lurgi facility), 18,390 will be withdrawn from the North
Platte River (for the slurry pipeline), and 1,900 from the Madison
aquifer (for uranium processing and solutional uranium mine and
natural gas production).2  Total withdrawal from the Yellowstone


     Population increases induced by secondary industries are
not included in this estimate.

     2A11 numbers assume expected average load factors and wet
coolers.  Power plant and Lurgi data are Water Purification Asso-
ciates high wet cooling;  others, Energy Research and Development
Systems wet cooling.

                               544
-------
River represents 0.8 percent of its low flow, and total withdrawal
from the North Platte River represents 14.4 percent of its low
flow.

     During the 1980-1990 period, the municipal requirements for
water at Gillette will increase to 8,200 acre-ft/yr.  This in-
creased withdrawal, which is equivalent to about 5,020 gpm, pre-
sents a significant possibility for aquifer depletion from either
the local well field or the Madison aquifer near Sundance.  Be-
cause both Gillette and Casper are projected to use groundwater
as a source for municipal needs, there will be no major impacts
on local surface water hydrology as a result of withdrawals.

     Increased capacity requirements for both water supply and
wastewater capacities will be needed.  Both cities may be able
to sell effluents for reclamation or irrigation and thus satisfy
the requirements for ZDP.

     Runoff will be increased by the expansion of existing towns,
and some lowering of the water quality in nearby streams is ex-
pected from this.

     The potential for aquifer pollution from increased septic
tank use in rural areas will be similar to that described for the
preceding decade but will be larger in magnitude.

(3)  To 2000

     The coal mine and conversion facility for the Synthane plant
will be operating by 1995.  The Synthoil operation will be in
production by 2000.  The other energy conversion facilities, their
associated mines, and the gas wells will continue operation dur-
ing this decade, so that all hypothesized facilities will be in
operation in 2000.

     By 2000, a total of 11,050 acres will have been disturbed
by the coal mines  (calculated from Table 7-20).  Disturbed land
will impound runoff water and thus reduce the amount of water
available to local streams.  Total annual water consumption is
about 82,900 acre-ft/yr of which 45,200 acre-ft/yr will be with-
drawn from the Yellowstone River  (for the power, Lurgi, and
Synthane plants), 35,800 acre-ft/yr will be withdrawn from the
North Platte River (for the Synthoil plant and coal slurry pipe-
line) , and 1,900 acre-ft/yr will be withdrawn from the Madison
aquifer (for uranium operations and natural gas production).

     Total withdrawal from the Yellowstone River represents 1.0
percent of its low flow, and total withdrawal from the North Platte
River represents 22.5 percent of its low flow.  In addition, rec-
lamation of coal mines may require 3,200 acre-ft/yr.
                               545
-------
     Municipal requirements for water will increase to 14,900
acre-ft/yr at Gillette and 2,400 acre-ft/yr at Casper (Table 7-24)
due to the population increases from the energy conversion fa-
cilities.  This increased withdrawal will lower groundwater lev-
els, especially in the shallow aquifers in the Gillette area and
the liadison aquifer near Sundance.  To meet these water needs,
either the well field in the vicinity of Sundance could be ex-
panded or surface water pipelines could be used to import water.

     Wastewater treatment facilities at Gillette must be expanded
to accommodate the additional needs (see Table 7-25).   Effluents
will continue to be used for reclamation or irrigation and thereby
satisfy the requirements for ZDP by 1985.

     Runoff from urban expansion will continue to increase result-
ing in further lowering of the water quality in nearby streams.
The potential for aquifer pollution from increased use of septic
tanks by rural populations will increase as in previous decades.

(4)  After 2000

     The mines will continue to operate with the same impacts as
stated in the 1990-2000 decade until they are exhausted.  Although
many areas will be reclaimed and revegetated after the mines and
their associated energy conversion facilities are decommissioned,
irrigation of the areas will cease, some vegetation will be lost,
and erosion will increase.  After the mines shut down and are
recontoured and revegetated, disruption of shallow aquifer sys-
tems will continue, and surface flows will continue to be modi-
fied both in volume and quality.

     After the energy conversion facilities are shut down, the
berms around the ponds will probably lose their protective vege-
tation and erode, eventually resulting in breaches in the berms.
When this happens, the materials within the pond site will erode
and enter the surface water system or percolate into the ground-
water aquifers.  The low precipitation in the scenario area will
be a retarding factor in the transport of these materials.

     Population levels will remain stable at least until the mines
and associated energy conversion technologies are decommissioned.
Thus, groundwater depletions will continue, and there will be a
reduction in the quality of surface water resources in the vicin-
ity of Gillette and Casper due to runoff from the population in-
creases.  The amount of water in any surface water sources used
to supply municipal needs will also be reduced.

7.3.5 Summary of Water Impacts

     Water impacts are caused by  (1) the water requirements of
and effluents from the energy facilities,  (2) the water


                               546
-------
requirements of and wastewater generated by associated population
increases, and (3) the coal and uranium mining processes.

     The impacts of the water requirements of the energy facilities
depend largely on the source of that water.  In the immediate vi-
cinity of Gillette, supplies of groundwater and surface water are
insufficient; and water must be imported by pipeline from such
sources as the Yellowstone River and its tributaries (Cla-rks Fork,
Bighorn, Tongue, and Powder), Belle Fourche River, Green River,
North Platte River, and Lake Oahe on the Upper Missouri River in
South Dakota.  The cost for this water will vary with the dis-
tance from the facility site.  However, before these sources can
be used for energy development, legal restrictions from several
compacts need to be lifted.

     This analysis hypothesized that water for energy development
would be withdrawn from several sources including the Yellowstone
River, the North Platte River, the Madison limestone aquifer, and
shallow aquifers in the Fort Union Formation.  Under a worst-case
condition, when any one facility was operating at the expected
load factor on the day when the river was at low flow,  the facil-
ity would withdraw from 4.8 to 21.3 percent  (Lurgi-power plant)
of the North Platte and 0.1 to 0.7 percent of the Yellowstone
River.  Average withdrawals are considerably lower percentages of
the annual average flow rates on the rivers.  The average flow
rate on the Yellowstone is 8,200,000 acre-ft/yr.  Annual average
withdrawals by energy facilities (assuming they are high wet
cooled and operating at expected annual average load factors)
are:  for Lurgi-5,823 acre-ft/yr; for Synthane-7,776 acre-ft/yr;
for Synthoil-9,227 acre-ft/yr; for the power plant-25,842 acre-
ft/yr; for the slurry pipeline-18,390 acre-ft/yr; for uranium
production-1,350 acre-ft/yr; solutional uranium facility-200
acre-ft/yr; and for natural gas production-380 acre-ft/yr.  The
use of intermediate wet cooling by these facilities operating at
expected load factors can reduce these requirements by 19 to 75
percent.  The energy development hypothesized in this scenario
analysis which calls for the power, Lurgi, and Synthane plants
to obtain water from the Yellowstone River and the Synthoil
plant and slurry pipeline to obtain water from the North Platte
River would require 1.1 percent of the Yellowstone River flow and
21.6 percent of the North Platte under worst-case conditions (ex-
pected load factors and low flow on the rivers).  The impact of
these withdrawals on the North Platte River during low-flow pe-
riods could be significant in terms of flow depletion and salt-
concentrating effects.   Alternate surface sources or the use of
groundwater to meet part of the needs may be necessary.  Similarly,
the water requirement of the uranium mill is expected to con-
tribute to the depletion of its water source, the Madison aquifer.

     Solid effluents from the following energy facilities in tpd
average 2,300 from the power plant, 2,500 from the Synthoil plant,
slightly less than 1,400 from the Synthane plant and Lurgi plant,

                               547
-------
1,000 from the uranium mill, and 10 from the solutional uranium
facility.  The objective of ZDP set forth in the Federal Water
Pollution Control Act1 will necessitate on-site entrapment and
disposal of effluents.  Therefore effluents will be discharged
into clay-lined, on-site evaporative holding ponds.  Furthermore,
runoff prevention systems will be installed to direct runoff to
a holding pond or to a water treatment facility.  These methods
protect the quality of surface water systems (at least for the
life of the plants), but groundwater quality may be reduced by
leakage and leaching from the disposal ponds and pits.  Similarly,
dry solid wastes such as the tailings produced by the uranium mill
will be disposed of in tailing ponds which may pose a particularly
large hazard to local aquifers should the tailing pond leak.

     By the year 2000, municipal water use will total 17,493 acre-
ft/yr in the scenario area due to energy-related increases in
population.  Most of the municipal water supply will be taken from
groundwater supplies.  The population increase in Gillette will
increase the water requirement significantly (by 14,837 acre-ft/
yr)  and may contribute to depletion of local aquifers and the
Madison aquifer.  Also, Gillette will need new wastewater treat-
ment facilities (4.4 MMgpd)  by the year 2000.

     The surface coal mines may have several disturbing effects
on the local Fort Union Formation and Wasatch aquifers.  The coal
mines will probably intersect aquifers and disrupt their flow
patterns.  If mine dewatering is necessary, aquifer depletion may
result.   Local springs and seeps on hillsides may dry up, water
levels in local wells may be lowered, and the base flow of streams
in the area may be reduced.   Moreover, natural precipitation and
water added for revegetation may pick up contaminants from mining
activities and transport them to local aquifers.

     By the year 2000, about 11,050 acres will have been disturbed
by the coal mines.  Disturbed land will impound runoff water and
thus reduce the amount of water available to local, ephemeral
streams.  The change in local stream flow patterns will, in turn,
affect wildlife habits.

7.4  SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS

7.4.1  Introduction

     All the hypothetical developments in the Gillette scenario
will occur in Campbell County in northeast Wyoming.  This area
experienced an oil and gas boom in the 1960's,  followed by a
population decline in the latter part of that decade.  The cur-
rent coal boom began in the early 1970's, and the area's


     federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972,
Pub. L.  92-500, §§ 101, 301, 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311  (Supp. 1976)

                               548
-------
population was twice that of 1960.  With the hypothetical develop-
ment included in this scenario, the population will continue to
increase but at an accelerated rate.  Most of the social and eco-
nomic impacts in the area will be related to population growth.

7.4.2  Existing Conditions

     Campbell County has an area of 3 million acres.  In 1974,
its population was 12,000 by U.S. Census Bureau estimates, giving
it a population density of 2.7 persons per square mile.  Local
estimates run as high as 17,000 for 1975.  More than 80 percent
of the population is centered in the only incorporated city,
Gillette, which is the county seat.  Since much of the population
growth has occurred as a consequence of energy development, the
population is disproportionately young and male.

     Table 7-27 gives the employment distributions in Gillette
during 1970 and in Campbell County during 1970 and 1975.  As
shown, construction, mining, and services are the major employers.
Gillette also receives some economic benefit from hunters and
tourists en route to Devil's Tower National Monument, the Black
Hills, and Bighorn National Forest.  Due to its location on
Interstate 90, Gillette also serves some visitors to Yellowstone
and Grand Teton National Parks.

     Campbell County is governed by a board of three county com-
missioners elected at large for 4-year terms.  The incumbents
currently are all ranchers, indicating that long-time residents
of the area have not been displaced by newcomers as quickly as
might be expected with a rapid influx of new population.

     The county provides few services by itself, in part because
they are provided by the state (social and health services) or
by the city and county jointly under the Wyoming Joint Powers
Act.1  The school system is countywide, and fire protection and
airport services are provided cooperatively by the city and
county.  The city and county also cooperate in planning, animal
control, park maintenance, and snow removal.  As noted earlier,
Campbell County now provides about one-third of the support for
the city of Gillette Department of Planning and Development,
which is responsible for planning, zoning administration, city
engineering, and building inspection.  The staff consists of a
planner, assistant planner, planning intern, city engineer, and
several building inspectors.
           act gives county and/or city governments the powers
of both governments when they work together.  For a description
of this legislation, see Hayen, Roger L. ,  and Gary L. Watts.  A
Description of Potential Socioeconomic Impacts from Coal-Related
Developments in Campbell County, Wyoming.   Washington, D.C.:
U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy De-
velopment, 1975, pp. 70-71.

                               549
-------
         TABLE 7-27:
EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY
INDUSTRY FOR 1970 AND 1975
INDUSTRY
Agriculture
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation
Communication and
Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance,
and Real Estate
Services
Public Administration
Total
CAMPBELL
COUNTY
1970
NUMBER
601
1,323
268
156
359
96
129
706
162
907
96
4,803
PERCENT
12.5
27.5
5.6
3.2
7.5
2.0
2.7
14.4
3.4
18.9
2.0
99.7
CAMPBELL
COUNTY
1975
NUMBER
579
1,406
1,604
168a
457
175
164
898b
206
1,154C
122
6,933
PERCENT
8.4
20.3
23.1
2.4
6.6
2.5
2. 4
12.9
3.0
16.6
1.8
100.0
Source:  1970 - U.S.,  Department of Commerce, Bureau of
                the Census.   Census of Population;  1970
                General Social and Economic Characteris-
                tics .   Washington, B.C.:  Government
                Printing Office, 1971.
         1975 - Estimated from Matson, Roger A., and
                Jeanette B.  Studer.  Energy Resources
                Development in Wyoming Powder River Basin;
                An Assessment of Potential. Social and
                Economic Impacts, prepared for Northern
                Great Plains Resources Program.  Cheyenne,
                Wyo.:   University of Wyoming, Water
                Resources Research Institute, 1974, p. 80.

aMostly nonelectric machinery.

^Mostly motor vehicles and service stations.

°To a large extent in public schools.
                          550
-------
     Gillette is governed by a part-time mayor and six council-
men who are elected for 4-year terms.  The city also has a full-
time city administrator.  In addition to those services provided
jointly with the county, the city provides its residents sewer,
garbage, and electrical services.  The electrical utility was re-
cently expanded, but the city's application to the Economic Devel-
opment Administration (EDA)  for $2 million to fund the extension
and improvement of its sewage treatment facilities has been de-
nied.  The sewer system has recently been expanded through loans
from the Wyoming Farm Loan Board.

     The single countywide school district has met the needs of
a growing population.  In Gillette, two new elementary schools
and a junior high school have been built, and two existing ele-
mentary schools have been enlarged.  In large part, education
problems have been minimal because the rate of population growth
has been relatively steady and because the county's tax base has
expanded with energy development.

     In addition to the help provided by the state under the pro-
grams mentioned above, Gillette receives assistance from the
Gillette Human Services Project, staffed by recent graduates of
the University of Wyoming.  This program (funded by EDA, state
revenue sharing funds, the Campbell County Children's Center, and
some energy developers)  provides research assistance for finding
solutions to growth-related problems and also provides extra man-
power to human service agencies in impacted communities.1

7.4.3  Factors Producing Impacts

     Two factors associated with energy facilities dominate as
the cause of social and economic impacts:  manpower requirements
and taxes levied on energy facilities.  Tax rates are tied to
capital costs, and/or the value of the coal extracted, and/or the
value of energy produced.  Taxes which apply to the Gillette
scenario facilities  (power plant, Lurgi plant, Synthane plant,
Synthoil plant, coal rail transport, coal slurry pipline, gas
wells, and a uranium mill) and their associated mines are:  a
property tax, sales tax, severance tax, and royalty payments on
federally owned coal.

     The manpower requirements for each scenario facility and its
associated mine are given in Tables 7-28 to 7-35.  For the coal
mines and the uranium mines, manpower requirements for operation
exceed peak construction manpower requirements by two times.
However, the reverse is true for the power, Lurgi, Synthane, and
          Uhlmann, Julie M.  Gillette Human Services Project,
Annual Report, August 31, 1976.  Laramie, Wyo.:  University of
Wyoming, Wyoming Human Services Project, 1976.

                               551
-------
    TABLE  7-28:
MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A 3,000 MEGAWATT
POWER PLANT AND ASSOCIATED MINE3
YEAR
FROM
START
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
CONSTRUCTION
WORK FORCE
MINE


0
36
211
205
211
169
0
0
POWER PLANT
0
40
420
905
1,315
2,265
2,545
1,990
720
0
OPERATION
WORK FORCE
MINE





0
275
275
552
552
POWER PLANT




0
109
109
218
436
436
TOTAL IN
ANY ONE
YEAR
0
40
420
941
1,526
2,579
3,140
2,652
1,708
988
    MWe = megawatt-electric

    aData are for a 3,000 MWe power plant and a surface coal
    mine large enough to supply that power plant (about 12.8
    million tons per year)  and are from Carasso, M., et al.
    The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols.  San Francisco,
    Calif.:  Bechtel Corporation, 1975; data uncertainty is
    -10 to +20 percent.
Synthoil plants and the gas wells.  The peak construction man-
power requirements for these facilities exceed the operation re-
quirements by 1.7 (Synthoil plant) to 7 times (Lurgi and Synthane
plants).  In combination, the total manpower requirement for each
coal mine-conversion facility increases from the first year when
construction begins, peaks, and then declines as construction
activity ceases.  Peak total manpower requirements for the Lurgi,
Synthane, and Synthoil mine-plant combinations are about 5,000,
and, for the power plant, about 3,100.  The fraction of the peak
total manpower requirement needed for operation of the mine-plant
combination ranges from 0.2 for the Lurgi and Synthane plants to
0.6 for the Synthoil plant.  The total manpower required for opera-
tion of the Synthoil facility and its associated mine is more than
three times that of the other plant-mine combinations.

     Property and sales taxes, which are tied to capital costs of
the facilities, and a severance tax and royalty payments, which
are tied to the value of coal, generate revenue for the state and
local governments.
                               552
-------
       TABLE 7-29:
   MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A LURGI
   PLANT AND ASSOCIATED MINE3

YEAR
FROM
START
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CONSTRUCTION
WORK FORCE


MINE
0
29
169
164
169
135
0


LURGI PLANT
0
36
609
2,687
4,682
2,662
0

OPERATION
WORK FORCE


MINE



0
220
220
442
442

LURGI PLANT




0
589
589
589

TOTAL IN
ANY ONE
YEAR'
0
65
778
2,851
5,071
3,606
1,031
1,031
   aData are for a Lurgi plant and a coal mine large enough
   to supply that plant (about 9.4 million tons per year)
   and are from Carasso, M.,  et al.  The Energy Supply
   Planning Model, 2 vols.   San Francisco, Calif.:   Bechtel
   Corporation,1975;  data  uncertainty is -10 to +20 percent,
    TABLE 7-30:
MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A SYNTHANE
PLANT AND ASSOCIATED MINEa

YEAR
FROM
START
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CONSTRUCTION
WORK FORCE

MINE
0
25
148
144
148
118
0

SYNTHANE PLANT
0
36
609
2,687
4,682
2,662
0

OPERATION
WORK FORCE

MINE



0
192
192
386
386
SYNTHANE PLANT




0
589
589
589

TOTAL IN
ANY ONF
YEAR
0
61
757
2,831
5,022
3,561
975
975
aData are for a Synthane plant and a surface coal mine large
enough to supply that Synthane plant (about 8.1 million tons
per year)  and are from Carasso, M., et al.   	
Planning Model, 2 vols.  San Francisco, Calif.:
Corporation, 1975; data uncertainty is -10  to +20 percent.
                           The Energy Supply
                                Bechtel
                             553
-------
 I
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gg
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                                                                  Q)
                                 554
-------
      TABLE 7-32:
MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A
SURFACE COAL MINE FOR RAIL
TRANSPORT OR SLURRY PIPELINE3
YEAR
FROM
START
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CONSTRUCTION
WORK FORCE
0
72-108
422-633
410-615
422-633
338-507
0

OPERATION
WORK FORCE



0
550-825
550-825
1,104-1,656
1,104-1,656
TOTAL IN
ANY ONE
YEAR
0
72-108
422-633
410-615
972-1,458
888-1,332
1,104-1,656
1,104-1,656
aData are for a large surface coal mine for coal export
(about 25 million tons per year) via rail transport or
                                      M.
                        et  al.   The
slurry pipeline and are from Carasso,     	   	
Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols.  San Francisco,
Calif.:  Bechtel Corporation, 1975; data uncertainty
-10 to +20 percent.
t>Manpower required for construction or operation of the
surface coal mine is given as a range since it, depends
on seam thickness, which is highly variable at Gillette,
  TABLE 7-33:  MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR GAS WELLS'
YEAR
FROM
START
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

CONSTRUCTION
WORK FORCE
0
144
729
1,695
1,488
0


OPERATION,
p»
WORK FORCE


0
58
314
790
790
TOTAL IN
ANY ONE
YEAR
0
144
729
1,753
1,802
790
790
 Data are for 83 gas wells with a combined production
of 250 million standard cubic feet per day and are from
Carasso, M., et al.  The Energy Supply Planning Model.
San Francisco, Calif.:  Bechtel Corporation, 1975; data
uncertainty is -10 to +20 percent.
                         555
-------
       TABLE 7-34:  MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A
                    URANIUM MILL AND ASSOCIATED
                    MINE3

YEAR
FROM
START
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
CONSTRUCTION
WORK FORCE


MINE
0
57
65
81
70
5
0

URANIUM MILL


0
22
117
10
0
OPERATION
WORK FORCE


MINE


178
178
178
178
178

URANIUM MILL


111
111
111
111
111

TOTAL IN
ANY ONE
YEAR
0
57
354
392
477
304
289
 Data are for a uranium mill and a surface uranium mine
large enough to supply that mill (about 1,000 metric tons
per year) and are from Carasso, M.,  et al.  The Energy
Supply Planning Model.  San Francisco, Calif.:  Bechtel
Corporation, 1975; data uncertainty is -10 to +20 percent.
       TABLE 7-35:
MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A
SOLUTIONAL URANIUM MINE3
YEAR
FROM
START
1
2
3
4

CONSTRUCTION
WORK FORCE
50
20
0
0

OPERATION
WORK FORCE
0
60
60
60
TOTAL IN
ANY ONE
YEAR
50
70
60
60
      aData are for a 250 ton per year in situ
      solutional mining operation and are from
      Larson, W.C., Geologist, Twin Cities Mining
      Research Centers, U.S. Bureau of Mines.
      Personal communication, November 23, 1977.
                          556
-------
     The capital costs of the conversion facilities and mines
hypothesized for the Gillette scenario are given in Table 7-36.
Costs range from 8 to 30  (uranium facilities) to 2,170 million
1975 dollars (mine-Synthoil plant facility).  Property tax, most
of which goes to local government, is levied on the cash value of
the facility (approximately the total capital cost given in Table
7-36) after construction of the facility is completed.  Sales tax,
most of which goes to the state government, is levied on materials
and equipment only (Table 7-36)  as these materials and equipment
are purchased during construction.  The current sales tax rate in
Wyoming is 4 percent, and the property tax rate in Campbell County
is about 2.52 percent.1  In addition, there is a severance tax
levied at a rate of 3.5 percent on the value of the coal mined.
This revenue will be used for loans to the local government with
interest going to the state government.  Royalty payments are
about 12.5 percent of the value of federally owned coal,2 of which
50 percent is returned to state and local government.

7.4.4  Impacts

     The nature and extent of the social and economic impacts
caused by these factors depend on the size and character of the
community or communities in which workers and their families live,
on the state and local tax structure, and on many, other social and
economic factors.  A scenario, which calls for the development of
power, Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil plants, coal rail transport,
coal slurry pipeline, gas wells, uranium mines, and a mill accord-
ing to a specified time schedule  (see Table 7-1), is used here as
a vehicle through which the nature and extent of the impacts are
explored.  The discussion relates each impact type to the hypo-
thetical scenario and includes population impacts, housing and
school impacts, economic impacts, fiscal impacts, social and cul-
tural impacts, and political and governmental impacts.

A.  Population Impacts

     In this scenario, the principal initial impact of energy de-
velopment on Gillette and northern Wyoming was from the workers
associated with the construction of an export surface coal mine
in 1975 and with gas drilling activities in 1976.  The employment
related to the eight scenario developments is summarized in Table
7-37.  The cyclincal nature of the construction activity is
     '•This is the effective, average property tax rate.  The
actual tax rate is computed using a number of assessment ratios,
since certain kinds of equipment (e.g., pollution control equip-
ment) are taxed at different rates or may be exempt.

     2This is the federal government target rate; actual rates
will vary from mine to mine.

                               557
-------
  TABLE  7-36:
CAPITAL RESOURCES  REQUIRED FOR CONSTRUCTION
OF FACILITIES
(in  millions of  1975 dollars)a
FACILITIES
Coal Conversion Facilities
Power Plant (3,000 MWe)
Lurgi or Synthane
Gasification Plant
(250 MMcfd)
Synthoil Plant (100,000
bbl/day)
Associated Surface Coal Mines
For Power Plant (12.8
MMtpy)
For Lurgi Plant (9.4 MMtpy)
For Synthane Plant
(8.1 MMtpy) '
For Synthoil Plant (12.1
MMtpy)
Surface Coal Mine for Coal
Export via rail transport
or slurry pipeline (25
MMtpy)
Uranium Mine and Mill (1,000
mtpy)
Uranium Mine (Solutional,
250 mtpy)
MATERIALS
AND
EQUIPMENT

461


469

689


72
52

46

65



137

8

2
LABOR
AND
OTHER

461


369

832


39
28

26

35



74

16

4
INTEREST
DURING
CONSTRUCTION

394


219

649


33
24

21

30



63

6

2
TOTAL

1,316


1,057

2,170


144
104

93

130



274

30

8
MWe = megawatt-electric
MMcfd = million  cubic feet per day
bbl/day = barrels per day
                     MMtpy = million tons per year
                     mtpy = metric tons per year
 Data are adjusted  (assuming linearity)  to correspond to the facility
size hypothesized in this scenario and are from Carasso, M., et al.
The Energy Supply Planning Model.  San Francisco, Calif.:  Betchel
Corporation,  1975;  and Larson, W.C.,  Geologist, Tw,in Cities Mining
Research Centers, U.S. Bureau of Mines.   Personal communication, 1977,

 At 10 percent per  year.
                                 558
-------
TABLE 7-37:
NEW EMPLOYMENT IN ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
IN CAMPBELL COUNTY, 1975-2000
(person years)
YEAR
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
CONSTRUCTION
110
780
1,340
2,370
2,420
1,080
2,780
5,800
8,130
5,530
760
0
0
0
0
60
760
2,830
4,890
3,380
2,280
4,490
5,210
3,710
1,250
0
OPERATION
0
0
0
880
1,140
2,450
2,450
2,680
3,890
5,080
5,920
5,920
5,920
5,920
5,920
5,920
5,920
5,920
6,110
6,700
6,890
6,890
6,890
7,170
8,640
10,380
TOTAL
110
780
1,340
3,250
3,560
3,530
5,230
8,480
12,020
10,610 '
6,680
5,920
5,920
5,920
5,920
5,980
6,980
8,750
11,000
10,080
9,170
11,380
12,100
10,880
9,890
10,380
     Source:   Carasso,  M.,  et al.   The
     Energy Supply Planning Model.   San
     Francisco,  Calif.:  Bechtel Corporation,
     1975;  and Larson,  W.C., Geologist, Twin
     Cities Mining Research Centers, U.S.
     Bureau of Mines.   Personal communica-
     tion,  1977.
                        559
-------
evident, but a long-term new energy work force of over 10,000
persons is expected by 2000.1   Overall population changes are
based on the annual energy employment (for both construction and
operation) and are estimated by means of an economic base model,
the employment data in Table 7-37, and two sets of time-dependent
multipliers (Table 7-38).  The population estimates, shown in
Table 7-39 and Figure 7-6, were distributed among Gillette, the
remainder of Campbell County,  and Casper.  No new population
clusters in Campbell County are explicitly considered here, al-
though scattered settlement is becoming more common.  For example,
Atlantic Richfield is providing housing at the town of Wright
(near Reno Junction), about 40 miles south of Gillette.2  Note
that the population impacts would differ significantly for a
construction schedule different from that analyzed here.

     The population of Campbell County will increase over four-
fold to 75,400 by the year 2000 given the energy development
proposed in the Gillette scenario.  Most of this growth will
occur in and near Gillette, where the area will attain a popula-
tion of about 69,000 by 2000.   Casper will achieve a population
of over 50,000«as a result of  the scenario development and will
grow even larger if other extensive developments take place in
eastern and central Wyoming.  The size of the facilities in this
scenario result in somewhat larger population estimates for
Campbell County than previous  studies have found; thus, the pop-
ulation discussed in this section may overestimate future condi-
tions. 3

     Age-sex distributions of  the projected population in Campbell
County provide an indication of housing and educational needs in
the area.  Using 1970 age distributions, new employment in the
     1 Based on projections using Bechtel's energy supply planning
model.  See Carasso, M.,  et al.   The Energy Supply Planning Model,
San Francisco, Calif.:  Bechtel Corporation,1975.

     2"Town Revived in Coal Boom."  Denver Post, July 13, 1976.

     3See, for example, U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau
of Reclamation and Center for Interdisciplinary Studies.  Anti-
cipated Effects of Major Coal Development on Public Services,
Costs, and Revenues in Six Selected Counties.  Denver, Colo.:
Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974, pp. 149-75; and
Wyoming, Department of Economic Planning and Development.  Coal
and Uranium Development of the Powder River Basin—An Impact
Analysis.  Cheyenne, Wyo.:  Wyoming, Department of Economic
Planning and Development, 1974,  pp. 51-75.

                              560
-------
     TABLE 7-38:
EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION MULTIPLIERS FOR
GILLETTE  SCENARIO POPULATION  ESTIMATES
SERVICE/BASIC MULTIPLIERS3
YEAR
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
and
after
CONSTRUCTION
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7

0.7
OPERATION



0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2

1.2
POPULATION/EMPLOYEE MULTIPLIERS13
Construction 2.05
Operation 2.30
Services 2.00
aThese values were selected after examining several  studies  of  the  northeastern
Wyoming area, including Hayen,  Roger L.,  and Gary  L.  Watts.   A  Description of
Potential Socioeconomic Impacts from Coal-Related  Developments  on Campbell
County, Wyoming.   Washington,  D.C.:   U.S.,  Department of  the Interior, Office
of Minerals Policy Development, 1975;  Northern Great  Plains  Resources Program,
Socioeconomic and Cultural Aspects Work Group.   Socioeconomic and Cultural
Aspects of Potential Coal Development in the Northern Great  Plains, Discussion
Draft.  Denver,  Colo.:   Northern Great Plains Resources Program,  1974; U.S.,
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land  Management, et al.   Final Environ-
mental Impact Statement for the Proposed Development  of Coal Resources in the
Eastern Powder River Coal Basin of Wyoming, 6 vols.   Cheyenne,  Wyo.:  Bureau
of Land Management, 1974;  Wyoming,  Department of  Economic Planning and Devel-
opment.  Coal and Uranium Development of  the Powder  River Basin—An Impact
Analysis.  Cheyenne, Wyo.:  Wyoming,  Department of Economic  Planning and
Development, 1974; U.S.,  Department  of the  Interior,  Bureau  of  Reclamation and
Center for Interdisciplinary Studies.   Anticipated Effects of Major Coal
Development on Public Services, Costs, and  Revenues  in Six Selected Counties.
Denver, Colo.:   Northern Great Plains Resources Program,  1974;  Matson, Roger A.,
and Jeanette B.  Studer.  Energy Resources Development in  Wyoming's  Powder
River Basin:  An Assessment of Potential Social and  Economic Impacts.  Denver,
Colo.:  Northern Great  Plains  Resources Program,  1974.

"Adapted from Mountain  West Research.   Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report.  Washington, D.C.:  Old West Regional Commission,  1976.
                                     561
-------
    TABLE 7-39:
POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR CAMPBELL COUNTY,
GILLETTE, AND CASPER, 1975-2000a

YEAR
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
CAMPBELL
COUNTYb
17,000C
30,600
49,700
49,400
63,450
75,400

GILLETTE
14,000°
26,650
44,800
44,500
57,700
69,200

CASPER
40,000
42,200
45,000
46,750
48,650
50,600
aEstimates incorporate an annual natural increase of 0.8 percent
through 1990 and 0.5 percent from 1991-2000.  Some yearly peaks,
caused by the employment needs in Table 7-38, are missed in the
above presentation.  Given the assumptions of the scenario, the
estimates of population increase should be considered to have a
±20 percent range associated with them.

bCampbell County was assumed to be the location for 100 percent
of all energy development employment in the scenario, with 90
percent occurring in or near Gillette and the remaining 10 per-
cent at Casper.

GSource:  Local estimates (Enzi, Mike, Mayor of Gillette, Wyoming.
Personal communication).  U.S. Census estimates are closer to
12,000 and 10,000 for the county and city, respectively.
county was assumed to correspond to data reported in the Con-
struction Worker Profile. l

     The marital status of construction workers and age -distribu-
tion of their children were also assumed to be distributed ac-
cording to recent survey findings in the West.  The resulting
age-sex distributions (Table 7-40) show increases in the 25-34
age group through 1985 and in the 35-64 age groups after 1985.
During' intensive construction periods, the relative proportion
of males to females is especially high, although males compose
at least 51.5 percent of the population throughout the 25-year
period.
          Mountain West Research.  Construction Worker Profile,
Final Report.  Washington, D.C. :   Old West Regional Commission,
1976, p. 38.
                              562
-------
                                      Campbell County

                                      Gillette
      1975  1980  1985  1990  1995  2000
    70 —i
                                       Casper
      1975  1980  1985  1990  1995  2000
FIGURE 7-6:  POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR CAMPBELL COUNTY,
             GILLETTE, AND CASPER, 1975-2000
                          563
-------
                                                            r -
 TABLE 7-40:   PROJECTED AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTIONS OF
              CAMPBELL COUNTY, 1975-2000a
AGE
Female
65-over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13
0-5
Total
Male
65-over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13
0-5
Total
1975

.025
.024
.090
.076
.046
.025
.031
.094
.071
.482

.022
.029
.120
.085
.041
.022
.032
.097
.069
.517
1980

.013
.018
.083
.118
.048
.024
.024
.076
.074
.478

.012
.021
.104
.136
.050
.024
.025
.077
.073
.522
1985

.009
.014
.075
.132
.048
.023
.028
.082
.074
.485

.008
.016
.088
.145
.050
.024
.028
.083
.074
.516
1990

.010
.019
.125
.114
.041
.032
.034
.071
.039
.485

.011
.023
.142
.122
.041
.032
.034
.071
.039
.515
1995

.011
.126
.125
.106
.051
.031
.025
.065
.040
.480

.013
.030
.143
.118
.054
.031
.025
.065
.040
.519
2000

.015
.139
.129
.116
.043
.025
.027
.063
.026
.483

.017
.042
.146
.126
.044
.025
.027
.063
.026
.516
aTotal may not sum to 1.0 because of rounding.
                       564
-------
B.  Housing and School Impacts

     Housing demand and school enrollment can be estimated from
the data in Tables 7-39 and 7-40.l  The resulting projections
are shown in Table 7-41.  The level of energy development in this
scenario results in nearly triple the number of households by
1985, rising to a total of over 28,000 households by the year
2000.  Except for 1985-1990, the  average annual rate of growth
is over 5 percent.

     In 1975, approximately one-third of Gillette's residences
were mobile homes.2  By 1977 nearly 40 percent were mobile homes3
because of constraints in the local housing market.  To keep mo-
bile homes at that proportion would require over 400 single-
family homes and about 200 multifamily units to be built annually
through 1985 and from 1990-2000 (Table 7-42).  Some energy de-
velopers are currently providing housing for their employees be-
cause of the tight housing market, but other residents find
housing difficult to purchase.1*

     School enrollment impacts will vary over time (Table 7-41
and Figure 7-7).  Overall school enrollment in the scenario is
expected to increase over 150 percent by 1985 and to reach 13,550
by 2000.  The upward trend in elementary enrollment is broken
only by a slight decline between  1985 and 1990, which reflects
the absence of energy construction activity.  High school enroll-
ment shows a similar trend five years later; enrollment increases
except for a slight drop between  1990 and 1995.  At an average
class size of 25 students and an estimated $2,500 per student
space, 192 new classrooms will be needed by 1985 at a cost of
approximately $12 million (Table  7-43).  The school district's


     Housing demand can be estimated by assuming the number of
males aged 50 years and older approximates the number of house-
holds in the area.  School enrollment can be estimated by assum-
ing that the 6-13 age group constitutes elementary school enroll-
ment and the 14-16 age group is the enrollment in secondary
schools.

     2Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council.  Compilation of
Raw Data on Energy Impacted Communities Including Characteristics,
Conditions, Resources and Structures.   Denver, Colo.:   Mountain
Plains Federal Regional Council,  1976.

     3U.S., Federal Energy Administration, Region VIII, Socioeco-
nomic Program Data Collection Office.   Regional Profile:  Energy
Impacted Communities.  Lakewood,  Colo.:  Federal Energy Adminis-
tration, 1977.

     4"Wyoming Grassland Transformed to Coal Mining Center."
Civil Engineering—ASCE, Vol. 47   (September 1977),  pp. 50-56.

                              565
-------
  TABLE  7-41:
ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL
ENROLLMENT IN CAMPBELL COUNTY, 1975-2000



YEAR
1975°
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000


NUMBER OF
HOUSEHOLDS
5,000
9,900
15,250
16,250
22,700
28,300
NUMBER OF
ELEMENTARY
SCHOOL
CHILDREN3
3,250
4,700
8,200
7,000
8,250
9,500
NUMBER OF
SECONDARY
SCHOOL
CHILDREN
1,050
1,500
2,800
3,350
3,200
4,050


TOTAL SCHOOL
ENROLLMENT
4,300
6,200
11,000
10,350
11,450
13,550
 Ages  6-13.

3Ages  14-16.
'Estimates..
        TABLE  7-42:
      DISTRIBUTION OF NEW HOUSING
      BY TYPE OF DWELLINGa

PERIOD
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
MOBILE
HOME
2,000
2,150
400
2,600
2,250
SINGLE-
FAMILY
2,000
2,150
400
2,600
2,250
MULT I -FAMILY
AND OTHER
900
1,050
200
1,250
1,100
       aAssumes  40  percent  of  new homes  will be
       mobile  homes,  40  percent will  be  single-
       family, and  20  percent  multi-family
       dwellings  or other types  (campers or
       recreational vehicles).  These percen-
       tages are  approximately those  found in
       Mountain West Research.  Construction
       Worker  Profile, Final Report.   Washington,
       D.C.:Old West Regional Commission,  1976,
       p.  103.
                           566
-------
     40  —1
  in
  T3
  fl
  (0
  W
  3
  o
  X!
  -P
 -P
 C

 I
  c
  w
  (0
 £  10
 0)
30  —
    20
                                               Households
                                                   Elementary
                                                    Secondary
        1975
             I
            1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
  FIGURE 7-7:
          PROJECTED NUMBER OF  HOUSEHOLDS,  ELEMENTARY AND
          SECONDARY SCHOOL CHILDREN  IN  CAMPBELL  COUNTY,
          1975-2000
financial needs would triple by the end of the century in this
scenario, although there will be a brief period of overcapacity
in the late 1980's.

C.  Economic Impacts

     The economy of Campbell County is now dominated by mining,
agriculture, and construction (totaling 48 percent of total
personal income).  Conversely, services, local government, fi-
nance, insurance, and real estate employ less than state and
national averages.1  Gillette's economy also receives a signifi-
cant contribution from out-of-state hunters.  This mix should
become somewhat less concentrated in energy-related sectors


     1U.S./ Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
"Local Area Personal Income."  Survey of Current Business, Vol.
54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75.
                              567
-------















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during the next 25 years as service-sector employment gradually
increases to a more average level compared to state and national
employment.

     Primarily because of the change in industry mix as con-
struction declines in importance, the county-wide income distri-
bution should gradually decline to $16,100 (1975 dollars)  during
the 1975-2000 period.1  However, despite this 11.5-percent de-
cline, the county-wide average will still be above the current
national average (Table 7-44 and Figure 7-8).  The proportion of
households in income categories between $8,000 and $15,000 will
increase, while the proportion in the over $25,000 category will
decrease.  High school age boys are being attracted to high-wage
energy-related employment, and, as a consequence, high school
girls are being employed in gas stations and other services.
This pattern is likely to continue for some time.

     The expected increase in the service sector will actually
be caused by an anticipated expansion in local business activity.
The rapid increase in the number of businesses in Gillette,
which has tripled since 1968, should continue.  Even if the rural
population growth is greater than expected, Gillette will still
benefit from retail activity because it is the only market cen-
ter in the county.  Casper, the nearest city larger in size than
Gillette, also will receive additional retail activity because
of Campbell County's energy development.

     To the extent that export mines are developed, rather than
mines directly attached to conversion facilities, the local
economy would experience less direct benefit.  On the other
hand, the smaller population would place smaller demands on pub-
lic services.2

     Tourism is not likely to be greatly affected because, unlike
many parts of the West, Gillette is not a particularly attrac-
tive place for tourism.  Some traffic occurs because of Devil's
Tower National Monument 60 miles east of town, but the area does
not compare with the major national parks in the region as a
tourist attraction.  However, hunting of the large antelope,
deer, and other animal populations is likely to increase substan-
tially (within state licensing limits)  as a result of the in-
creased population (see Section 7.5).
     xThis projection does not include national trends, such as
technological change, productivity gains, etc.

     2 See White, Irvin L., et al.   Energy From the West:  Energy
Resource Development Systems Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.


                              569
-------
TABLE 7-44: PROJECTED INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR
CAMPBELL COUNTY, 1975-2000
(in 1975 dollars) a
MEDIAN
HOUSEHOLD
INCOME
o
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15,000-
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1975  1980   1985  1990  1995
                                                 2000
FIGURE 7-8:  PROJECTED ANNUAL  INCOME  DISTRIBUTION
             FOR CAMPBELL COUNTY,  1975-2000
             (in 1975 dollars)
                         571
-------
D.  Fiscal Impacts

     Municipal services will be severely strained, especially
early in the population expansion period.1  An estimate of capi-
tal expenditure needs for Gillette emphasizes the importance of
water and sewage facilities in rapid population growth areas
(Table 7-45).  In overall operating expenditures, per capita
costs tend to rise as a town's population increases; however,
much of the increase can be attributed to capital expenditures
and debt service.2  Employing an average of $120 per capita, the
additional operating expenditures required of Gillette as a re-
sult of the scenario increase an average of 5.3 percent per year
(compound)  through 2000 (Table 7-46).   The estimated operating
expenditures are probably low (perhaps as much as 20 percent),
but they indicate the increase in financial needs with a popula-
tion increase.  Adding these operating expenditures to the capi-
tal needs in Table 7-45 shows that Gillette will have problems
in meeting population-related needs through 1985 and again after
1990.  A major cause of these problems will be that energy devel-
opment taking place outside Gillette's city limits will not pro-
vide the city with the tax revenues needed to fund the required
municipal services.3

     The largest portion of new taxes will come from levies di-
rectly on the facilities, and the largest of these items will be
the property tax.  By the end of the century, the energy devel-
opments in our scenario will carry an assessed value of about
$6 billion, or almost 20 times the total 1975 assessment in
Campbell County.  Until the last few years of the scenario, the
new values consist of roughly equal portions of facilities (as-
sessed at 24 percent of invested value)  and coal production
(assessed at 100 percent of each year's extracted value).  The
final facility to be added, a 100,000 barrels per day liquefaction
plant, is very capital-intensive, bringing $2.1 billion of new
property to the county or some 18 times as much as the value of


     1 See Gillette, Wyoming, City of.   Catalog of Public Invest-
ment Projects, 1976 to 1986.  Gillette,  Wyo.:City of Gillette,
1976; and Campbell County Chamber of Commerce.  Economic Impact
of Anticipated Growth;  City of Gillette and Campbell County,
Wyoming.  Gillette, Wyo.:  Campbell County Chamber of Commerce,
1976.

     2THK Associates, Inc.  Impact Analysis and Development
Patterns Related to an Oil Shale Industry:  Regional Development
and Land Use Study.  Denver, Colo.:  THK Associates, 1974.

     3Campbell County Chamber of Commerce.  Economic Impact of
Anticipated Growth;  City of Gillette and Campbell County,
Wyoming.  Gillette, Wyo.:  Campbell County Chamber of Commerce,
1976.

                              572
-------
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          TABLE 7-46:
NECESSARY OPERATING EXPENDITURES
OF GILLETTE, 1975-2000
YEAR
1975b
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
OPERATING EXPENDITURE NEEDS3
(Thousands of 1975 dollars)
2,514
4,032
6,210
6,174
7,758
9,018
aBased on $120 per capita (1975 dollars)  added to the 1975 figure
of $2,514 million.  The needs can be broken down as follows:
roads and streets (25 percent), health and hospitals (14 percent),
police (7 percent),  fire protection (12 percent), parks and rec-
reation (6 percent),  libraries (4 percent), administration  (10
percent), and other  (12 percent).  See THK Associates, Inc.  Im-
pacts Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil Shale
Industry;  Regional Development and Land Use Study.  Denver,
Colo.:  THK Associates, Inc., 1975, p. 41.  The $120 average is
probably low for Gillette.

bSource:   Hayen, Roger L., and Gary L. Watts.   A Description of
Potential Socioeconomic Impacts from Coal-Related Developments
on Campbell County,  Wyoming.  Washington, D.C.:   U.S., Department
of the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, p.
30.  This source is particularly useful for detailed projections
of short-term needs  (through 1985).
the coal which annually supplies it (and two-thirds of the value
of all other facilities in the scenario combined).

      When the current mill levies—48.98 mills for schools (local
and state programs)  and 11.99 mills for other county purposes1--
are applied to the assessed values of the energy facilities, new
revenues would be generated as in Table 7-47.  The major bene-
ficiary of new property tax revenues would be education.  In 2000,
nearly $140 million would be added annually to school budgets if
the current rates were maintained.  However, as indicated in
      1U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation
and Center for Interdisciplinary Studies.  Anticipated Effects
of Major Coal Development on Public Services, Costs/ and Revenues
in Six Selected Counties.  Denver, Colo.:  Northern Great Plains
Resources Program, 1974, p. 341.
                               574
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-------
Table 7-43, the school will need only $27 million per year in
additional operating expenditures to maintain current standards.
Clearly, there would be considerable leeway for lowering the
school mill levy.

     Other revenues derived directly from energy facilities in-
clude severance taxes and royalties.  The Impact Assistance Act,1
will collect 2 percent of the value of coal extracted until $160
million has been accumulated.  The mines in our scenario will
produce that much coal by 1990, so that tax collected statewide
will probably terminate in the 1980's.  Proceeds will be allocated
by the Wyoming Farm Loan Board to impacted areas for building
infrastructure, especially roads.  Another tax of 1.5 percent
will not terminate and will be collected to establish the Mineral
Trust Fund.2  Income from the fund will go to the state's general
fund, but the principal will be used for loans to localities.
Finally, the state will receive 50 percent of federal coal roy-
alties.  Under recent legislation, royalties have been targeted
at one-eighth of the coal value.  (Approximately 45 percent of
the coal in the scenario area is owned by the federal government.)
The various mineral taxes and royalties are summarized in Table
7-48.

     The other public revenue impacts in this scenario, sales
taxes and utility fees, are population-related.  New sales tax
revenues can be estimated on the basis of the incomes already
projected.  At each point in time, all the following factors are
multiplied together:  number of new households (since 1975),
average income per household,3 average propensity to buy taxable
goods,1* the sales tax rate,5 and the split between levels of
government.6  These factors are brought together in Table 7-49
along with an estimate of municipal utility fees.


     *The act provides funds to mitigate impacts related to the
development of coal, gas, shale oil, and other minerals.

     2See Hayen, Roger L., and Gary L. Watts.  A Description of
Potential Socioeconomic Impacts from Coal-Related Developments on
Campbell County, Wyoming.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Department of
the Interior,Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, pp.
69-70.

     3$17,600 in 1980, $16,910 in 1985 and thereafter were used.

     "*The average for the mountain states is 56 percent of income.

     5Three percent by the state, another one percent optional
by county.

     6Two-thirds to the state, roughly one-sixth each to county
and city.

                               576
-------
       TABLE  7-48:   SEVERANCE TAXES AND  PUBLIC  ROYALTIES
                     (millions of  1975  dollars)
SOURCE
Impact Assistance Acta
Mineral Trust Fundb
Interest on Mineral
Trust Funda'c
State Share of Federal
Royalties3 > ^
1980
4.3
14.0
0.7
6.1
1985
12.0
61.0
3.0
19.6
1990
0.0
132.0
6.6
22.2
1995
0.0
216.0
10.8
27.6
2000
0.0
319.0
16.0
34.7
     Annual  rate.

     'Accumulation.

     'At  5  percent.

     Assuming  45 percent of  coal  under federal lease.
    TABLE 7-49:
ADDITIONAL POPULATION-RELATED TAXES AND FEES
(millions of 1975 dollars)
SOURCE
Retail sales, Campbell
Retail sales, Casper
Sales Tax Shares
State
Campbell County
Gillette City
Casper and Natrona
Total
Utility fees, Gillette3
Utility fees, Casper3
1980
48.3
8.2
1.29
0.32
0.32
0.08
2.01
1.98
0.35
1985
97.1
15.9
0.31
0. 65
0.65
0.16
1.17
4.84
0.79
1990
106.5
25.1
3. 51
0.71
0.71
0.25
5.18
4.79
1.06
1995
167.6
33.4
5.36
1.12
1.12
0.33
7.93
6.86
1.36
2000
220.6
41.7
6.99
1.47
1.47
0.42
10.35
8.67
1.66
«3
 At $157 per capita.  See Hayen, Roger L., and Gary L. Watts.  A
Description of Potential Socioeconomic Impacts from Coal-Related
Developments on Campbell County, Wyoming.  Washington, D.C.:
U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy De-
velopment, 1975, p. 118.
                               577
-------
     All the revenue sources identified above for the state and
Campbell County can be regrouped by level of government, as in
Table 7-50.  Comparisons can then be readily made with the demands
for new public expenditures (Table 7-45 and 7-46).  Under current
conditions, Gillette will always be short of revenues for nec-
essary expenditures.  For Gillette to meet its expenditures, it
must share costs with Campbell County or annex county land to add
to the city tax base.1

E.  Social and Cultural Impacts

     Several major groups of people live in and around Gillette:
ranchers, oil company employees, coal mining and related con-
struction employees, and businessmen.  The managerial-level oil
company employees, some of them Gillette residents for 10 years,
are able to take part in local affairs, while more recent new-
comers related to coal development largely are not.2

     The social segregation has geographical manifestations par-
ticularly noticeable in the predominance of mobile home living
among new workers and their families.  One effect of a large in-
crease in coal-related population is likely to be yet more mobile
home neighborhoods spatially distinct from existing housing.
Gillette residents strongly dislike the appearance and quality
of living of mobile home parks, and that condition will probably
only increase as a result of the scenario analyzed here.   Fur-
ther, child neglect and abuse, to the extent it actually occurs,
appears to be a consequence of the migrant nature of construction
families around Gillette.4
     1 See Campbell County Chamber of Commerce.  Economic Impact
of Anticipated Growth:  City of Gillette and Campbell County,
Wyoming.  Gillette, Wyo.:  Campbell County Chamber of Commerce,
1976.

     2University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research.
A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the
Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and
Northeastern Wyoming.Missoula,Mont.:Institute for Social
Science Research, 1974, pp. 49-52, 75.

     3Ijbid; Pernula, D.  City of Gillette/Campbell County:  1977
Citizen_ Policy Survey.  Gillette, Wyo.:  Gillette/Campbell County
Department of Planning and Development, 1977.

     ''Richards, Bill.  "Western Energy Rush Taking Toll Among
Boom Area Children."  Washington Post, December 13, 1976, pp. 1,
4.  Gillette off-cials say that this is not a problem and that
Richards is guilty of hyperbole in most of his stories about
Gillette and Campbell. County.


                              578
-------
        TABLE 7-50:
NEW REVENUE FROM ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
BY LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT
(millions of 1975 dollars)
JURISDICTION
Wyoming (state revenues) a
Campbell County
City of Gillette
Campbell County School
District
1980
12.4
4.9
2.9

18.0
1985
39.6
17.6
6.9

70.0
1990
32.3
18.9
6.9

74.5
1995
43.8
24.5
10.0

95.4
2000
57.7
35.1
12.7

137.0
   Source:  Tables 7-47, 7-48, and 7-49.

   alncludes amounts to be allocated to impact areas.
     Another type of separation results from the coal trains which
roll slowly through Gillette several hours each day, cutting the
town into two sections.  Like many western towns, Gillette grew
up on both sides of the railroad tracks that run through town.
As coal traffic has increased (and continues to increase), vehi-
cles, including emergency vehicles, are forced to wait for trains
to pass.  An overpass or underpass would solve this problem but
would create others.  Congestion would occur at the single access
point, and weather would have effects on usefulness.  Underpasses
are subject to temporary flooding, and overpasses become icy in
winter.  These conditions would be preferable to the daily inter-
ruption of all cross-town interaction.
     In public and private
ularly short supply.  Only
Campbell County in 1974, a
people.  By 1977, the town
also had grown; making the
people.1  Gillette has had
and as a consequence, many
      services, medical care is in partic-
      eight physicians served Gillette and
      ratio of about one physician to 1,500
      had 10 physicians, but the population
      ratio one physician to about 1,700
      trouble attracting and keeping doctors,
      residents drive long distances for
     *By comparison, Sheridan has 17 doctors, a ratio of one per
675 people; the national average is about one per 660 people.  See
Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Impacts
of Natural Resource Development Committee.  Socioeconomic Impacts
and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted Communities
in Federal Region VIII.  Denver, Colo.:  Mountain Plains Federal
Regional Council, 1975; and U.S., Federal Energy Administration,
Region VIII, Socioeconomic Program Data Collection Office.   Re-
gional Profile:  Energy Impacted Communities.  Lakewood, Colo.:
Federal Energy Administration, 1977.
                              579
-------
            TABLE 7-51:
PHYSICIAN NEEDS IN CAMPBELL
COUNTY, 1975-2000


YEAR
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000


POPULATION
17,000
30,600
49,700
49,400
53,450
75,400
AT RATIO OF
ONE DOCTOR PER
1,000 PEOPLE
17
31
50
49
63
75
AT RATIO OF
ONE DOCTOR PER
700 PEOPLE
24
44
71
71
91
108
medical care.  This is a matter of great concern.1  The need for
new physicians (Table 7-51)  will be as acute as the need for ad-
ditional water and sewage treatment but is less likely to be ame-
liorated by local government policy.  Physicians are highly mobile
and attracted by both large urban areas (and their well-equipped
hospitals) and pleasant outdoor amenities.  For the latter reason,
Sheridan seems to do better than Gillette and other similar-size
towns at attracting physicians.2  Company-supported health main-
tenance organizations or other group medical practice may be
necessary to meet medical needs in Campbell County.  In addition,
the current trend toward family practice,  rather than medical
specialization, may help small cities such as Gillette.3

     The social unrest among the various groups in Gillette will
exist until some stable pattern of social interaction takes prece-
dence over the constant conflict between oldtimers and newcomers. **
     ^ernula, D.  City of Gillette/Campbell County 1977 Citizen
Policy Survey.  Gillette, Wyo.:Gillette/Campbell County Depart-
ment of Planning and Development, 1977, pp. 4-5 and pp. 23-39.

     2University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research.
A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the
Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and
Northeastern Wyoming.  Missoula, Mont.:  University of Montana,
Institute for Social Science Research, 1974.

     3Loan forgiveness programs also appear to be an important
influence on rural and small-town location of physicians.  See
Coleman, Sinclair.  Physician Distribution and Rural Access to
Medical Services, R-1887-HEW.  Santa Monica, Calif.:  Rand Cor-
poration, 1976.

     ^University of Montana.  Impact of Coal Development.

                              580
-------
On a county wide scale, ranchers now dominate most local positions
of power.  This control is most threatened by the growth of urban
Gillette, not by the mining and energy-related activity.  The
urbanization issue in Wyoming and much of the West is particularly
contentious because of the desire to keep the small-town atmo-
sphere, which is declining.1

     The quality of life in Gillette will not be judged favorably
by many residents during the course of this development.  Water
supply problems, medical service shortages, and the lack of street
maintenance are only a few of Gillette's negative attributes that
largely can be expected to continue.2  On the positive side, em-
ployment opportunities are abundant in Gillette, the number and
mix of retail goods and commercial services is expanding steadily,
and a number of high-quality recreational areas are available
within a few hours of the town.

     The negative aspects of living in Gillette will not be re-
duced or eliminated easily.  Financial strain on the community
appears to be a major source of unfavorable opinion about life
there.  In addition, the integration of new residents into social
groups and their participation in local affairs may be difficult
and constitutes an important consideration for individuals.

F.  Political and Governmental Impacts

     Some of the social effects of energy development will be
reflected in the political affairs and governmental administra-
tion of both Gillette and Campbell County.  Immediate impacts on
governmental administration will occur as localities demand ex-
panded public services and as the sphere of public purpose is
extended into quasi-public areas such as the provision of private
housing and health care.  Providing these services will require
a concerted planning, coordination, and implementation effort on
the part of all the parties-at-interest in the Gillette energy
development area.  Further, the changing nature of the population


     University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research.
A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the
Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and
Northeastern Wyoming.  Missoula, Mont.:  University of Montana,
Institute for Social Science Research, 1974; and Northern Great
Plains Resources Program, Socioeconomic and Cultural Aspects
Work Group.  Socioeconomic and Cultural Aspects of Potential Coal
Development in the Northern Great Plains, Discussion Draft.
Denver,Colo.:Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974,
pp. 37-73.

     2Pernula,  Dale.  City of Gillette/Campbell County 1977
Citizen Policy Survey.  Gillette , Wyo.:  Gillette/Campbell County
Department of Planning and Development, 1977.

                               581
-------
will strain the existing political balance, forcing accommodation
of new attitudes and values in local decisions.

     Wyoming, through the state legislature, has implemented a
number of measures to reduce local fiscal impacts caused by
energy-related growth.l  The Wyoming Community Development Au-
thority was created and authorized to provide loans to communities
and to provide additional financing capacity to traditional lend-
ing institutions for low-interest housing loans.  Severance tax
revenues were to be used to back the Development Authority, thus
providing a better bond rating for municipal loans by guarantee-
ing repayment.  This Wyoming finance agency is unique because it
was given the power to make loans to both the public and private
sectors to raise additional mortgage money.  Although the non-
housing provisions of the Authority have been declared unconsti-
tutional by the state supreme court, the Authority is expected to
provide substantial assistance to mitigate housing shortages
associated with energy development.

     Legislative provisions for distribution the coal tax allow
the Wyoming Farm Loan Board to disperse funds collected from the
state severance tax.  Grants are made to communities which have
exhausted other reasonable means of financing sewer and water
systems, streets, and road projects.  Gillette received over
$900,000 in 1975-76 for its water and sewer system from coal tax
grants.2  As a condition for issuing development permits for
large energy facilities, the Wyoming Industrial Development In-
formation and Siting Act of 1975 provides authority to require
an applicant to share in the financing of needed public facili-
ties and services, including schools.  Coal mines valued at less
than $50 million are excluded from these requirements, but coal
conversion facilities and large uranium mills are subject to the
Act. 3


     *For a detailed review of Wyoming's legislative package
dealing with the fiscal impacts of energy development, see Hayen,
Roger L. , and Gary L. Watts.  A Description of Potential Socio-
economic Impacts from Coal-Related Developments on Campbell
County, Wyoming.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Department of the
Interior,Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, pp. 57-74.

     2Bronder, L.D., N. Carlisle, and M.D. Savage.  Financial
Strategies for Alleviation of Socioeconomic Impacts in Seven
Western States.  Denver, Colo.:  Western Governors' Regional
Energy Policy Office, 1977, p. 391.

     3Wyoming Industrial Development Information and Siting Act,
Wyoming Statutes,    35-502.75 through 35-502.94.  For more infor-
mation, see Chapter 8, Housing, in White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy
From the West;  Policy Analysis Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.

                               582
-------
     Energy development in the area will also lead to changes in
Gillette's relationship with Campbell County.  Public services,
such as law enforcement, fire protection, and water supply, will
require a concerted effort on the part of the city and Campbell
County to upgrade and maintain adequate levels of performance.
Although, as shown in the previous fiscal analysis, expenditures
and revenues will be fairly equal between 1975 and 1990, Gillette
will experience a deficit until 1983.  This deficit will be at
its largest, $1.2 million, in 1980.  When compared to Gillette's
1975 budget of about $2.5 million, these data indicate the city
will be faced with a deficit approximately 50 percent as large as
current revenues.  If capital costs are included, the deficit in
1980 would be about $2.5 million instead of $1.2 million.  A
factor mitigating this fiscal imbalance could be redistribution
of tax revenues from the county since its revenues are expected
to expand dramatically after 1980, nearly tripling Gillette's
expenditures by 1985.  With redistribution to Gillette, the total
operating and capital expenditures required in this scenario
could easily be met after 1980, but such action requires uncommon
fiscal cooperation between both jurisdictions.l

     As noted earlier, the city and county cooperate on planning,
as personified by a city-county planner on the county payroll.2
Along with Wyoming's Joint Powers Act, which authorizes counties
to join with other local governments in financing facilities,
planning for future growth of Gillette appears to be reasonably
possible.  However, there is no means for requiring that the Joint
Powers Act be involved, leaving the vast majority of Gillette's
financing problems to the city.  In addition, the city-county
planner's recommendations need not be, and often are not, approved
by the Board of County Commissioners.  Another complication to
planning results from the fact that the Industrial Development
Information and Siting Act applies to facilities with construc-
tion costs greater than $50 million.  Several of the currently
planned operations were valued slightly below that limit3 in what
was perhaps an attempt to avoid the effects of the law.  These and
          Campbell County Chamber of Commerce.  Economic Impact
of Anticipated Growth;  City of Gillette and Campbell County,
Wyoming.Gillette, Wyo.:Campbell County Chamber of Commerce,
1976.

     2During the fiscal year 1975, the total county contribution
was $55,000 of the $150,000 budget of the Department of Planning
and Development.  Wyoming, Department of Planning and Development
Personal communication, 1976.

     3Gillette, Wyoming, City of.  Statement of Planning Consid-
erations, February 13, 1976.  Gillette, Wyo.: "City of Gillette,
1976.

                               583
-------
 similar  specific problems greatly limit Gillette's efforts to
 plan adequately for future growth.'

     Finally, energy development at Gillette will result in
 changes  for traditional organized interests and, over the long
 term, will likely affect the power base that has prevailed in
 Gillette-Campbell County relations.  That is, the control of
 county affairs by the ranchers will decline to allow representa-
 tion of  Gillette in county government affairs.  Like many parts
 of the West, town and county affairs have been kept distinct; in
 fact, the population of the town is typically less than that of
 the remainder of the county.  The reverse situation now exists
 with regard to the city of Gillette and Campbell County, but po-
 litical  power in the county government still is held by the ran-
 chers.   It is not clear at what point, in the course of future
 development, the political balance will shift to meet the popula-
 tion balance.  Whenever it does, the changeover will be difficult
 for long-time residents.2

 7.4.5  Summary of Social and Economic Impacts

     Manpower requirements and the tax rates levied on the energy
 facilities are major causes of social and economic impacts.   For
 the mines, manpower requirements for operation exceed peak con-
 struction manpower requirements.  However, the reverse is true
 for the  coal conversion facilities and gas wells, i.e., more
 labor is required for construction than for operation.  In com-
 bination, total manpower requirement for each coal mine-conversion
 facility combination increases from the first year when construc-
 tion begins, peaks, and then declines.  Total manpower required
 for operation of the Synthoil facility and its associated mine is
more than three times that of other coal mine-plant combinations.

     Property tax and sales tax, which are tied to the capital
 costs of the facilities, and a severance tax and royalty payments,


     *A  further example is the inability of Gillette to expand
 in preferred directions because of land ownership by parties,
 including energy developers, who are unwilling to give up their
 land to  urban expansion.

     2University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research.
 A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the
Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and
Northeastern Wyoming.   Missoula, Mont.:  University of Montana,
 Institute for Social Science Research, 1974; and Northern Great
 Plains Resources Program, Socioeconomic and Cultural Aspects Work
 Group.    Socioeconomic and Cultural Aspects of Potential Coal
 Development in the Northern Great Plains, Discussion Draft.
 Denver,  Colo.:  Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974,
 pp. 37-73.

                               584
-------
which are tied to the value of coal, generate revenue for the
state and local government.

     Capital costs of the hypothesized conversion facilities and
mines in the Gillette area range from about $8 million for a
solutional uranium mine to $2.17 billion  (1975 dollars) for a
mine-Synthoil plant facility.  A property tax is levied at a rate
of about 1.52 percent on the cash value of each facility, and a
sales tax is levied at a rate of 4 percent on materials and
equipment purchased during construction.  In addition to these
taxes related to capital costs, there is a severance tax levied
at a rate of 3.5 percent on the value of the coal mined.  State
and local government also received 50 percent of the royalty pay-
ments which are about 12.5 percent of the value of federally
owned coal.

     Of all locations in the western U.S., the Gillette, Wyoming,
area is expected to be one of the areas most intensively impacted
by energy development.  The scenario analyzed here indicates that
the county population will grow over four-fold by the year 2000,
with a large part of the growth taking place in or near Gillette.
Housing needs and school enrollments will expand similarly.  Most
new housing units will be mobile homes, reflecting the reluctance
of builders, finance firms, and residents to expect anything but
short-term growth.

     Campbell County's economy has already been largely energy-
impacted, although primarily by oil and gas production.  Through
1985, this concentration in energy should continue, slowly giving
way to greater representation of service employment related to
population.  The energy and service sectors will exceed agricul-
ture in the county in terms of income and employment.  A gradual
decline in household median income will occur over the 25-year
period as a result of the change in industry mix and the growth
of relatively lower paying service jobs.

     Municipal expenditures for capital facilities and operating
budgets are expected to be quite large, particularly in the capi-
tal expenditures area where $163 million will be needed over
the 25-year period.  For 1980 to 1985, because of the increasing
tax base, the county will have a financial surplus, whereas
Gillette will show a deficit.  Consequently, a concerted effort
on the part of both jurisdictions will be needed to meet the
demands for public facilities and services.

     Social problems resulting from, for example, the large num-
ber of mobile homes and the lack of sufficient medical care will
make life especially difficult for newcomers to Gillette.   The
newcomer/oldtimer disparity is also manifested in political con-
trol, which presently remains in the hands of ranchers county-
wide.  Planning for the future growth of Gillette within the


                              585
-------
county is thwarted by both these political considerations and
the growing power of energy developers in the county.

     The major technological choices affecting social and eco-
nomic impacts in Campbell County are essentially the alternatives
between exporting coal or converting it within the local area.
The greatest impacts will occur during construction of a conver-
sion facility, which requires 20 to 30 times the labor force for
construction of a mine alone.  Thus, construction of mines would
not produce so great a fluctuation in the work force as that which
takes place in the scenario during the mid-1980's.  Importantly,
however, differences in operation of the facilities are not as
great as construction, and half the work force (and attendant
population)  would not be required if the coal were shipped from
the region.   However, without the plants, the tax base for Campbell
County would significantly diminish.

     Other technological choices would produce some change in
social impacts.  For example, if plant efficiency decreases, due
to such factors as dry-cooling towers, mining might require 5
percent more labor; if the plants were located at more distant
locations, some shifts in population location of commuters might
take place.   If extensive export mining called for additions to
rail service rather than slurry lines, impacts would be difficult
to predict and would depend on the extent of new rail access to
the region and the degree to which rail lines would be monopolized
by coal cars.

     Prediction of many of the social and economic impacts depends
largely on assumptions in the economic base model and, for exam-
ple, of taxation rates.  Improvements in knowledge of the current
situation probably would not result in significant improvements
in the ability to predict impacts in this area.  However, im-
portant changes in quality-of-life and political impacts are more
difficult to predict and can only be approached by means of local
data, such as surveys of attitudes and aspirations of people with-
in the region or a greater understanding of the underlying politi-
cal structure of Gillette and Campbell County.

7.5  ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS

7.5.1  'Introduction

     The area considered in evaluating the Gillette scenario ex-
tends from the Bighorn Mountains eastward to the Black Hills
and northward from the North Platte River to the Montana border.
Most of this land is rolling prairie of 4,600 to 5,000 feet in
elevation, relieved by stream valleys and buttes and ridges ris-
ing a few hundred feet from the surrounding landscape.  The cli-
mate is semiarid, with extreme annual variations in temperature1;
                               586
-------
which, together with soil moisture and topography, are the major
factors affecting the distribution of plant and animal species.1

7.5.2  Existing Biological Conditions

     There are two major biological communities present in the
prairie portion of the study area:  sagebrush-grasslands and Pon-
erosa pine woodlands.  The sagebrush-grasslands are of several
subtypes,  a shrubby salt-tolerant greasewood type along stream-
courses and silver sage or big sage dominant in well-drained
upland sites.  Most of the area is big sage grassland used for
grazing cattle.  There are also a few pure grassland areas largely
devoid of shrubs.

     Antelope and sage grouse, two species which depend heavily
on large expanses of sage, are exceptionally abundant in the
Gillette area.  Wyoming also has almost half the world"s popula-
tion of pronghorn antelope, and most of these inhabit the study
area.  Other typical animal species are shown in Table 7-52.
Rare or endangered species include the peregrine falcon, bald
eagle, black-footed ferret, and northern kit fox; and possibly
other species threatened with extinction also occur in or migrate
through the area.2

     Ponderosa pine woodlands are found largely in rough topo-
graphy to the north of Gillette and in a small range of hills to
the southeast.  The widely spaced trees provide a variety of food
plants, cover, and nesting sites for a distinctive bird fauna
and a variety of small mammals (Table 7-52).3

     A small amount of riparian habitat is found in the prairie
portion of the scenario area, principally along the Powder,
     1 Packer, Paul E.  Rehabilitation Potentials and Limitations
of Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great Plains, General
Technical Report INT-14.  Ogden, Utah:  U.S., Department of Agri-
culture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experi-
ment Station, 1974, p. 4.

     2Northern Great Plains Resources Program.  Effects of Coal
Development in the Northern Great Plains:  A Review of Major
Issues and Consequences at Different Rates of Development.
Denver, Colo.:  Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1975,
p. 46.

     3Most of the area's birds of prey hunt over both communities;
species include:  Swainson's, red-tailed, and ferruginous hawks;
golden eagle; marsh hawk; prairie falcon; kestrel; and great
horned owl.  Other ubiquitous predators include the coyote, bob-
cat, and red fox.

                               587
-------
      TABLE 7-52:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTIC SPECIES OF MAIN
COMMUNITIES,  GILLETTE SCENARIO
      COMMUNITY TYPE
     CHARACTERISTIC
         PLANTS
 CHARACTERISTIC
     ANIMALS
      Sagebrush
      Grassland
   Big Sagebrush
   Silver Sagebrush
   Greasewood
   Gardner Saltbush
   Alkali Sacaton
   Bluegrass
   Needle and Thread
     Grass
   Western Wheat Grass
Antelope
Coyote
Richardson"s
  Ground Squirrel
Black Tailed
  Prairie Dog
Western Harvest
  Mouse
Sage Grouse
Golden Eagle
      Ponderosa Pine
      Woodlands
   Ponderosa Pine
   Rocky Mountain
     Juniper
   Skunkbush Sumac
   Western Snowberry
   Stoneyhills Muhly
   Green Needlegrass
   Sideoats Grama
Mule Deer
Elk
Porcupine
Wild Turkey
Bushytail
  Woodrat
Least Chipmunk
Bobcat
      Riparian
   Plains Cottonwood
   Sanbar Willow
   Boxelder
   Wild Rose
   Rubber Rabbitbrush
   Wildrye
   Wheatgrass
   Needlegrass
Mule Deer
Whitetail Deer
Red Fox
Meadowvole
Mallard
Western Kingbird
Skunk
Bobcat
Raccoon
Little Powder, Belle Fourche,  and Cheyenne Rivers, and Black
Thunder and Lightning Creeks.   Composition of this vegetation
type ranges from narrow rows of cottonwoods with a shrubby under-
story to a relatively well-developed floodplain forest.  White-
tail deer and a number of other mammals are found principally in
these bottom woodlands.

     Aquatic habitat is limited in extent in the prairie portion
of the scenario area.  Flows in the area's major streams—North
Platte, Cheyenne, Belle Fourche, and Powder Rivers—vary consid-
erably from both natural runoff and irrigation withdrawals.
Warm-water fish species predominate, except below the discharges
of several reservoirs in the North Platte.  Fish habitat in the
                               588
-------
Powder, Belle Fourche, and Cheyenne Rivers is limited because
extreme summer flow reductions leave only a series of deep holes
and pools with little water flowing between them.  Species tol-
erant of these conditions include burbot, carp, white sucker,
and fathead minnow.  Stock ponds and small irrigation reservoirs
usually support largemouth bass and panfish, while larger reser-
voirs support both warm- and cold-water species.  Mountain lakes
and streams in the Black Hills and Bighorn Mountains are 'stocked
with trout.

7.5.3  Factors Producing Impacts

     Four factors associated with construction and operation of
the scenario facilities (electric power, Lurgi, Synthane, and
Synthoil plants and their associated surface coal mines, surface
coal mines for rail and slurry export, surface and solutional
uranium mines and mills, and gas wells) can cause ecological im-
pacts:  land use, population increases, water use and water pol-
lution, and air quality changes.  With the exception of land use,
the quantities of each of these factors associated with the sce-
nario facilities were given in previous sections of this chapter.
Land-use quantities are given in this section  (Table 7-53), and
the others are summarized.  As indicated in Table 7-53, the solu-
tional uranium facility and natural gas production and processing
system require the least amount of land overall  (200 and 1,080
acres over 30 years respectively).  For coal plant-mine combina-
tions, land use ranges from a low of 3,550 acres (gasification
plant and mine) to a high of 5,770 acres (power plant and mine)
during the 30-year facilities' lifetime.  Land use for the surface
uranium mine and mill (3,730 acres/30 years) is similar in magni-
tude to that for the coal plant-mine combinations.  The surface
coal mines for coal export will use the most land overall, 6,600
acres.

     As described in Section 7.4, manpower required for construc-
tion and operation of the scenario facilities is expected to cause
an increase in urban population in Campbell County.  Peak man-
power required during construction of the facilities is about
2,750 for the power plant-mine combination, about 5,000 for the
Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil plant-mine combinations, 1,700 for
the gas wells, 200 for the uranium mine and mill, and 50 for the
solutional uranium mine.  After construction is completed, man-
power required for operation is about 1,000 for the power, Lurgi,
and Synthane plant-mine combinations, about 3,400 for the Synthoil
plant-mine combination,  800 for the gas wells, 300 for the uranium
mine and mill, and 60 for the solutional mine.

     Water required for the plants operating at the expected load
factor ranges from about 5,825 (Lurgi plant) to 25,800 acre-ft/yr
(power plant)  assuming high wet cooling is used (Table 7-19).
Water for the power, Lurgi, and Synthane plants will be withdrawn
from the Yellowstone River; water for the Synthoil plant and coal

                               589
-------
         TABLE 7-53:  LAND USE BY SCENARIO FACILITIES
FACILITY
Coal Conversion
Power Plant (3,000 MWe)
Lurgi or Synthane Gasification
Plant (250 MMcfd)
Synthoil Plant (100,000 bbl/day)
Surface Coal Mines
For Power Plant (12.8 MMtpy)
For Lurgi Plant (9.4 MMtpy)
For Synthane Plant (8.1 MMtpy)
For Synthoil Plant (12.1 MMtpy)
For Rail Transport (25 MMtpy)
For Slurry Pipeline (25 MMtpy)
Natural Gas Production/Processing
(250 MMcfd)
Uranium
Surface Mine (1,100 mtpd)
Mill (1,000 mtpy)
Solutional Mine-Mill (250 tpy)
LAND USE3
ACRES PER
YEAR






100
85
85
110
220
220



115


ACRES PER
30 YEARS

2,400

805
2,060

3,300
2,550
2,550
3,300
6,600
6,600

1,080

3,450
280
200
   MWe = megawatt-electric
   MMcfd = million cubic feet
           per day
   bbl/day = barrels per day
MMtpy = million tons per year
mtpd = metric tons per day
mtpy = metric tons per year
tpy = tons per year
    aThe  land used by the mines will increase every year by the
    amounts  given in the table for 30 years, the  lifetime of
    the facilities.  However, land occupied by the plants will
    not vary after construction is completed.
slurry facility, from the North Platte River;  water for rail
transport facility, from local shallow aquifers;  water for the
uranium mill and gas liquefaction plant,  from the Madison lime-
stone aquifer.  Wastewater from the facilities directed to ponds
or treatment facilities will contribute contaminants to surface
and groundwater only as ponds leak or erode.

     The annual ambient air concentrations of S02 from the sce-
nario facilities will range from 0.2  (coal mines for coal export)
to 3.6 micrograms per cubic meter (yg/m3)  (Synthoil plant).
Typical and peak concentrations of criteria pollutants from the

                               590
-------
facilities for coal export, power plant, Lurgi plant, Synthane
plant, and uranium mill are not expected to violate any federal
or Wyoming ambient air standards.  Peak concentrations from both
the gas wells and Synthoil plant will violate the federal and
Wyoming 3-hour HC ambient air standard.

7.5.4  Impacts

     The nature of the ecological impacts caused by these factors
depends on the plant and animal community type on which they are
imposed.  For example, the impact of land use depends on whether
shrub grassland, pine woodland, or riparian woodland is being used.
Some of the land-use trends are now evident or could occur re-
gardless of energy-related growth.  A scenario which calls for
power, Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil plants and their associated
mines, surface coal mines for rail export and slurry export,
uranium surface mine and mill and solutional mine, and gas wells
to be developed according to a specified time schedule (see Table
7-1) , is used here as the vehicle through which the extent of the
impacts are explored.  Impacts caused by land use, population in-
creases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes
are discussed for each time period.

A.  To 1980

     Most of the early impacts of the scenario will be a conse-
quence of construction activities.  Expected land use by the
urban population and the scenario facilities from 1975-2000 are
given in Table 7-54.  By 1980, about 2,840 acres, 0.09 percent
of the land in Campbell County, will be used by the urban popula-
tion by the one energy facility which is on-line.  Table 7-55
shows that shurb grassland will be the community type primarily
used by the urban population and energy facilities.   Forage which
could be produced on the 2,840 acres would support 30-53 cows
with calves and 41-74 sheep in a year (Table 7-56).l   For pur-
poses of comparison, a 1974 Census of Agriculture Preliminary
Report for Campbell County indicates a total inventory of 91,893
cows with calves and 126,890 sheep (including lambs).

     The expected impact during the first 5 years is relatively
minor in this scenario, primarily due to the limited extent of
development.   The amount of habitat removed by constructing the

     livestock carrying capacities are expressed as Animal Unit
Months (AUM's).  An animal unit is one cow and her calf or five
sheep.  An AUM refers to the amount of forage required to support
one animal unit for 1 month.  AUM's do not refer to wildlife.
Estimated current forage requirements are 3.5-6 acres of forage
for one AUM for grasslands and sagebrush grasslands,  and 3.5-4.0
acres for pine and riparian lands.  Private lands are now over-
stocked, and 3-4 acres are used to feed one cow with calf per
month.
                              591
-------
TABLE  7-54:
                   LAND  USE  IN  GILLETTE  SCENARIO  AREA
                   (in acres)a

By Energy Facilities
Coal Conversion Facilities
Power Plant (3,000 MWe)
Lurgi Plant (250 MMcfd)
Synthane Plant (250 MMcfd)
Synthoil Plant (100,000 bbl/day)
Surface Coal Mines
For Power Plant (12.8 MMtpy)
For Lurgi Plant (9.4 MMtpy)
For Synthane Plant (8.1 MMtpy)
For Synthoil Plant (12.1 MMtpy)
For Rail Export (25 MMtpy)
For Slurry Export (25 MMtpy)
Uranium Facilities
Surface Mine (1,100 mtpd)
Mill (1,000 mtpy)
Solutional Mine-Mill (250 tpy)
Natural Gas Production/Processing
(250 MMcfd)
Subtotal
By Urban Population in Campbell
County*3
Residential
Streets
Commercial
Public and Community
Facilities
Industry
Subtotal
Total Land Use
Total Land In Campbell
County 3,043,840
1975






















600
120
14

37
t60
831
831


1980


















1,080
1,080


1,270
254
30

79
127
1,760
2,840


1990


2,400
805



550
425


2,200
1,100

575
280
200

1,080
9,615


2,185
437
52

136
218
3,028
12,643


2000


2,400
805
805
2,060

1,650
1,275
425

4,400
3,300

1,725
280
200

1,080
20,405


3,505
701
84

217
350
4,857
25,262


                                    mtpd = metric tons per day
                                    mtpy = metric tons per year
                                    tpy = tons per year
MWe = megawatt-electric
MMcfd = million cubic feet  per  day
bbl/day = barrels per day
MMtpy = millions tons per year
aValues in each column are  cumulative for year given.

 Acres used by the urban population were calculated using population
estimates in Table 7-39  for Campbell County assuming:  residential
land = 50 acres per 1,000 population; streets = 10 acres per 1,000
population; commercial land = 1.2 acres per 1,000 population;
public and community facilities =3.1 acres per 1,000 population;
and industry = 5 acres per  1,000 population.  Adapted from THK
Associates, Inc.  Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related
to an Oil Shale Industry:   Regional Development and Land Use Study.
Denver, Colo.:  THK Associates,  1974.
                             592
-------
     TABLE 7-55:
LAND CONSUMPTION:
(acres)
GILLETTE SCENARIO
COMMUNITY
TYPE
Grassland
Shrub
grassland3
Pine
Woodlandb
Riparian
Woodlandb
PERMANENT LOSS
1980
930

2,840
550
130
1990
1,330

12,643
780
190
2000
1,920

25,262
930
250
          aAssumes land use by energy facilities and
          urban population given in Table 7-54 will be
          on shrub grassland areas.

          bThese community types will be affected by
          land use for rail spur from Gillette area to
          Douglas which supports the export mines, a
          trunk line which supports the gas wells, and
          transmission and pipeline rights-of-way; these
          land uses are temporary and are not included
          in Table 7-54.
rail line, opening the first export mine, and developing the gas
field with its system of gathering and transmission pipelines will
be negligible compared to the total amount of sagebrush-grassland
habitat available.  Smaller vertebrates will be lost during con-
struction, but many will tend to recolonize the pipeline rights-
of-way after reseeding.1  Although local impacts in affected
areas will eliminate some species,2 the net impact on areawide
populations will be negligible.
     Species recolonizing rights-of-way may not be the same as
those initially found there, owing to change in vegetation cover.

     2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management,
et al.   Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed
Development of Coal ^Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal
Basin of Wyoming, 6 vols.  Cheyenne, Wyo.:   Bureau of Land Manage-
ment, 1974, p. IV-115.
                               593
-------
           TABLE 7-56:
POTENTIAL LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION
FOREGONE:  GILLETTE SCENARIO
ACRES LOST3
1980 2,840
1990 12,643
2000 25,262
Post-2000c 39,112
1974 Inventory ,d
Campbell County
Loss as percent of
1974 Inventory
(Post-2000)
ANIMAL EQUIVALENTb
COWS WITH CALF
30-53
137-234
274-469
423-725
91,893
0.5-0.8
SHEEP
41-74
193-330
386-661
597-1,022
126,890e
0.5-0.8
        alncludes cumulative land use by energy facili-
        ties and urban population given in Table 7-55.

         Carrying capacity of 3.5-6.0 acres of forage
        per Animal Unit Month (AUM)  assumed for calcu-
        lations.  Actual capacity on private lands
        which are now overstocked are 3-4 acres per AUM.

        clncludes total land use during 30 year life-
        time of facilities.

         U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
        Census.  1974 Census of Agriculture; Preliminary
        Report, Campbell County, Wyoming"!Washington,
        D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 19 76.

        elncludes lambs.
     The introduction of the rail line, which will carry seven
unit trains daily, will interfere with the movements of larger,
wide-ranging species such as deer and antelope.  Seasonal move-
ments between areas of winter browse and summer feeding and wa-
tering will be disrupted.  The rail line also bisects two large
winter concentration areas.  If prevented from movement between
winter and summer areas, antelope could decline in abundance,
particularly during periods of drought-induced stress.  This area
                               594
-------
is also subject to extensive habitat fragmentation1 by energy
development during subsequent years, which could accentuate this
population trend.

     Livestock production on either side of the railroad right-
of-way will also require that it be fenced on both sides.  These
fences will prevent crossing of the rail line by antelope and
will cause occasional, temporary entrapment of deer and antelope
within the right-of-way.2

     Manpower required for construction will cause the urban
population in Campbell County to increase by 80 percent over the
1975 population, which will total 30,600 by 1980 (Table 7-39).
Ecological impacts associated with population increases, water
use and water pollution, and air quality changes will not be
significant by 1980.

B.  To 1990

     By 1990, the gas wells, uranium surface and solutional mines
and mill, surface mines for coal export, and power and Lurgi
plants and their associated mines will be on-line.  Land use by
the urban population and by the energy facilities given in Table
7-54 is expected to be 12,640 acres, 0.41 percent of the land in
Campbell County.  Forage which could be produced on this land
area, (primarily shrub grassland and small amounts of streamside
vegetation, Table 7-55) would support 137-234 cows with calves
and 193-330 sheep for a year (Table 7-56).

     While the proportion of the total extent of habitat lost to
facility siting is negligible,  the addition of new sites will
tend to fragment habitat used by the widest ranging of the area's
wildlife:  the pronghorn antelope.  Fragmentation will increase
in the subsequent decade; together with the impact of the rail-
road, this splitting of the species' range could result in changes
     Habitat fragmentation occurs when the continuous mosaic of
habitat types available to area wildlife becomes a discontinuous
patchwork because of artificial barriers such as fences, irriga-
tion canals, rail lines, or large barren expanses of mined areas.
Wildlife species travel among different habitats daily, and often
seasonally, to fulfill food, water, and cover requirements.  Bar-
riers which fragment habitat stress wildlife because they limit
or prohibit access to these important needs.

     2There has been some question about the impact of fencing
the railroad right-of-way.  Though deer can either jump or crawl
through/under fences, antelope crawl under them and only rarely
attempt to jump.

                               595
-------
in seasonal movements and distribution.l   Increased traffic on
the highway parallel to the rail line will constitute a wildlife
hazard.  The impact of highway kills on areawide populations of
smaller wildlife will be negligibly small, but the increased
amount of carrion available may, in turn, attract birds of prey
and some mammalian predators, which will be vulnerable to road-
kill.  Because of their low numbers, the threat to bald eagles,
which feed on both carrion and live prey, warrants concern, al-
though areawide populations of most other predators are high enough
to absorb occasional deaths without decline.

     It has been relatively common practice for large energy de-
velopers to purchase irrigation water rights as a stop-gap mea-
sure to ensure a water supply.2  If this happened in this hypo-
thetical scenario, conversion of these rights to industrial use
could eliminate a portion of the wildlife habitat provided by
irrigated crop and pasture land.  Although restricted in extent,
this habitat type may be important to a number of wildlife species,
including ring-necked pheasant and water fowl as well as a variety
of small mammals and birds.

     A potential physical hazard is presented by the extra-high
voltage power transmission line.  Migrating birds may occasionally
fly into the wires or suffer electrocution because of corona
discharge.  However, appropriate design can reduce the problem of
electrocuting large birds perching on the towers.  The corona
discharge from the line could cause wildlife and livestock to
avoid the general area.3

     Increases in the population of the Gillette area over the
second decade will induce continuing changes in land-use patterns.
The effect of town growth on wildlife populations is irregular
and is related to topography and the movements of people, but it
probably extends no farther than 20 miles from the outskirts of
town into the plains.  For most species,  a smaller radius (perhaps


     Current fencing practices on public lands in the study area
are antelope-oriented; that is, bottom fence strands are 14-16
inches above the ground, and Bureau of Land Management-designed
"antelope guards" are provided.  Fencing on private lands does
not usually incorporate such designs and has likely produced some
changes in distribution already.

     2 Industry has already purchased some 12,000 acres of irri-
gated cropland to obtain the associated water rights.  However,
as described in Part III, it is not clear that agricultural water
rights can be converted for use in energy development.

     3Research under the sponsorship of the Electric Power Re-
search Institute is intended to reveal the extent to which large
power lines can influence wildlife.

                               596
-------
10 miles)  would include most concentrated day-to-day human activ-
ity, the presence of domestic dogs and cats, traffic, noise, and
suburban habitat fragmentation that would noticeably reduce the
abundance and diversity of terrestrial wildlife.  If, however,
growth is'scattered into small subdivisions along the north-south
axis of the coal field, the combined effect on wildlife habitat
of both industrial and residential land use would be more exten-
sive than around a single town.  This pattern could result if
Gillette is unable to finance sewage treatment facilities meeting
EPA standards, thus favoring scattered small developments.

     By 1990, the urban population in Campbell County will be
about 49,400, almost triple the 1975 population.  Larger concen-
trations of people may bring increases in hunting and poaching,
primarily of deer, elk, antelope, and sage grouse.  Poaching
typically reaches high levels around large construction projects
and will have begun to occur in the previous scenario decade.
Illegal kills of nongame animals are likely to follow a similar
pattern.  Birds of prey are usually prime targets, especially
those which frequent roadsides such as bald and golden eagles and
Swainson's hawks.  The peregrine falcon, occasionally seen in the
area, and the prairie falcon, a resident, can probably tolerate
less of this kind of stress than the more abundant species.  Var-
mint hunting is popular in the area, concentrating mainly on fox,
coyote, and bobcat.  A major increase in trapping and hunting,
due to the increased human population and rising fur prices, could
reduce the bobcat and possibly the fox populations.  Since coy-
otes typically do not decline unless concerted efforts are made
against them, their numbers could increase slightly as a result
of lowered competition with other predators.

     Patterns of recreational land use could shift if private
lands are closed to hunting and other recreational uses.  -This
trend is already in evidence around Gillette.  Ranchers who close
their lands will probably keep them closed even after the first
population influx has passed.  Such actions could reduce illegal
game kill on large areas of sage-grassland.  This trend would
also force outdoor recreationists to almost exclusive use of the
area's public lands, particularly the Black Hills and Bighorn
National Forests.1
     1 Lands to the northwest and southeast of Gillette that are
under the administration of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM)
and Basin National Grasslands or are administered by the Forest
Service will be affected to a smaller degree.  The BLM lands are
important deer and elk habitat; unrestricted use of off-road ve-
hicles  in these areas could be particularly harmful to elk,  which
occupy  very restricted ranges.


                               597
-------
     Wildlife populatons in the Black Hills will probably be
affected more severely than those in the Bighorn Mountains due to
the proximity of Gillette.  While large parts of the Bighorn
National Forest are administered as primitive areas and proposed
for wilderness classification, the Black Hills National Forest
is so well supplied with roads that the Forest Service plans to
close some of them to reduce traffic in potential "backcountry"
areas.1  Further, about 20 percent of the area within the Black
Hills National Forest boundary is not owned by the federal gov-
ernment.  This land consists of scattered, small, privately held
parcels whose subdivision could affect many kinds of wildlife
through habitat fragmentation.2  The net effect of developing
recreational forested lands would be to protect, to some extent,
animals typical of the well-developed sagebrush grasslands (where
energy facilities occur)  at the expense of forest ecosystems.

     Water withdrawals from the North Platte and Yellowstone Rivers
for energy development are not expected to cause significant
ecological impacts.  Localized adverse impacts may arise from
dewatering the surface mines and from contamination of groundwater
percolating through these mines after backfilling and revegeta-
tion.  Mine dewatering may affect the water table as much as 2
miles away.3  Springs or surface discharges within that distance
might become unpalatable to wildlife from contamination by leached
salts after flow is resumed.

     Although the discharge of municipal sewage into area streams
is to be controlled during this decade, Gillette will probably
continue current discharge practices until about 1985 (Section
7.3).  Such discharge could contain harmful amounts of nutrients
and perhaps some organic material.   Gillette presently discharges
its sewage effluent into Donkey Creek, an intermittent stream.
Assuming that this practice continues, the added flow could help
stabilize the aquatic ecosystem.   However, nutrients carried by
the wastewater could cause algal blooms in pool habitats, lower-
ing dissolved oxygen levels and causing odor problems as they
     ^.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky
Mountain Region.  Draft Environmental Statement for the Timber
Management Plan for the Black Hills National Forest.Denver,
Colo.:   Forest Service, 19 76.

     Particularly vulnerable are whitetail deer, which winter
at lower elevations, largely outside the forest boundary.

     3U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey.  Final
Environmental Impact Statement:  Proposed Plan of Mining and
Reclamation, Belle Ayr South Mine, Amax Coal Company, Coal Lease
W-0317682, Campbell County, Wyoming, 2 vols.  Reston, Va.:  Geo-
logical Survey, 1975.


                               598
-------
decay.  Further, the Belle Fourche River, about 23 miles down-
stream, might receive nutrient-laden water from Donkey Creek, al-
though the effects would be significantly diminished.

     Typical and peak concentrations of criteria pollutants from
the scenario facilities are not expected to cause significant
ecological impacts.

C.  By 2000

     All the scenario facilities will be on-line by 2000.  Land
use by 2000 by urban population and energy facilities given in
Table 7-54 will total 25,262 acres, 0.8 percent of the acres in
Campbell County.  Forage which could be produced on this land
area, which is primarily shrub grassland (Table 7-55), would
support 274-469 cows with calves and 386-661 sheep in a year
(Table 7-56).

     Recreational and land-use changes along with illegal harvest
may adversely affect the twc small elk herds in the area (50 in
the Rochelle Hills and a larger herd, about 200, along the bad-
lands of the Little Powder River).  These herds are too small to
sustain continued loss of breeding animals of both sexes.  Another
factor affecting the vulnerability of elk is the large proportion
of their range that lies on public lands.  The area's other game
species are likely to be protected somewhat by the closure of
private lands.

     Ecological impacts associated with land use and population
increases will be similar to, but more intense than, impacts de-
scribed for 1990.  By 2000, the urban population in Campbell
County will be 75,400, 4.4 times the 1975 population.

     The removal of water from the North Platte River (Section
7.3) will equal 22 percent of low flow by 2000.  Periodic stress
in the aquatic community is likely to occur, at least in years
of low flow.   Lowered stream flows affect aquatic ecosystems by
changing fish distributions and behavior, reducing the produc-
tivity of plants and invertebrates, reducing the total bottom
area, changing overall water quality, and lowering the rate of
food transfer from riffle to pool areas.

     Flows in the North Platte are affected by reservoir opera-
tion.  Reduced flow effects will be greatest in the periods of
lowest river discharge, principally in winter.  At other times,
flow is great enough so that water withdrawal in the anticipated
amounts will be only a very small portion of the total discharge.
Thus, spring or fall fish spawning is not likely to be influenced.
                              599
-------
In the drier months, increasing stress to game might conceivably
bring about species shifts favoring nongame fishes.1

     Dewatering will also reduce the extent of habitat available
to wintering waterfowl.  Large numbers of mallards, green-winged
teal, golden-eye, and merganser, together with some geese, winter
on the North Platte below Glenrock.

     Both airborne and waterborne industrial wastes can introduce
hazardous substances into the environment.  Under most conditions,
combined plant emissions should not add significantly to ground-
level pollutant concentrations.  Consequently, acute air pollution
damage to vegetation or animals does not seem likely.  Since the
total land area exposed to airborne pollutants does reflect the
number of emission sources, low-level exposure to S02 will cover
a broad area downwind of the line of developments.  Peak ground-
level concentrations will be highest--323 milligrams per cubic
meter (0.13 ppm)  3-hour average—downwind of the plant.  These
concentrations are below those generally thought to cause acute
vegetation damage.

     Some evidence suggests that fine particulate matter origi-
nating in the Great Plains is reduced over the Black Hills by
the scavenging effects of precipitation and by the ability of
vegetation to act as a filter.2  The latter mechanism may account
for as much as a two-fold reduction in particulate concentration.
Thus, much of the sulfates and sulfites emitted as fine particu-
lates or forming subsequently in the atmosphere may be deposited
in the Black Hills.  This phenomenon would carry with it the
possibility of slight soil acidification, but total emissions are
far below levels which have been associated with locally acid
rainfall or chronic damage to plants.  The tendency toward soil
acidification will probably also be small.  Other influences in
the same time frame may have a greater affect on overall vegeta-
tion productivity and influence the ecosystems at large.   Grazing
and drought will remain the principal factors limiting the pro-
ductivity of prairie vegetation, while the intent of the Forest
Service to manage the Black Hills National Forest intensively
     1 These nongame fishes have more flexible habitat require-
ments and include carp, white sucker, river carpsucker, buffalos,
and bullheads.  Nongame species which may be adversely affected
include the stonecat and shorthead redhorse.

     2Davis, B.L., et al.  The Black Hills as a "Green Area" Sink
for Atmospheric Pollutants, First Annual Report, prepared for
the USDA Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station,
Report 75-8.  Rapid City, S. Dak.:  South Dakota School of Mines
and Technology, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, 1975.


                               600
-------
as a system of small, even-aged stands1 overrides the influence
of long-distance transport of air pollutants from Gillette as
an overall habitat influence.

D.  After 2000

     Land use by urban population and energy facilities  (in Table
7-56) during the 30-year lifetime of the facilities will total
39,112 acres, 1.3 percent of the acres of land in Campbell County.
Very little of the land in the county is cropland (about 4 per-
cent) ; most of the land on and near the resource sites is cur-
rently used to graze cattle and sheep.2  Little of this activity
would be affected by mining, although 10 percent of the county
will be within 0.5 mile of some transportation right-of-way,
including rail, extra-high voltage transmission lines, and slurry
pipelines.  Forage which could be produced on the 39,112 acres,
which are primarily shrub grassland, would support 423-725 cows
with calves and 597-1,022 sheep (including lambs) in a year,
which represents 0.5-0.8 percent of the 1974 inventory of cows
with calves and sheep in Campbell County.

     Of the 39,112 acres used during the 30-year scenario time
period, about 11,200 acres will be permanently lost to urban ex-
pansion and facility structures and 27,900 acres will be used
by mining.  Experimental work in the Gillette area has shown that
a cover of range grasses can be established on regraded mine
spoils.  Opinions differ on the length of time required to estab-
lish self-sustaining vegetation, but this technology assessment
assumes that 5 years will be sufficient, after which there will
be no further manipulation of the revegetated area.   However,
since spoil material lacks the structure of soils developed over
longer periods, moisture in the revegetated mine spoils will
probably not be as good (nor natural nutrient cycles as effective)
as those in native soils.   Further, since soil moisture avail-
ability and fertility are usually the major factors limiting
plant growth on spoils from this part of the Fort Union Formation,
revegetated areas may have less dense plant cover, lower produc-
tivity, and exhibit less stability in the face of such stresses
as grazing or the region's periodic droughts than adjacent un-
disturbed vegetation.  In consequence, the net effect of mining
will probably be to convert shrubland used to a less productive,
probably less stable early-successional type of grassland.


     1U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky
Mountain Region.  Draft Environmental Statement for the Timber
Management Plan for~the Black Hills National Forest.Denver,
Colo.:  Forest Service, 1976.

     2U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.  1974
Census of Agriculture; Preliminary Report, Campbell County,
Wyoming.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1976.

                               601
-------
     The ecological impact of reclamation changes can be quali-
tatively described, based on successional patterns observed on
abandoned farmland in the area.1  Table 7-57 is a classification
of area animals according to their preference for different vege-
tation types.  (Figure 7-9 shows the expected changes in area
animal populations on lands reclaimed with varying success.)
This diagram shows that, during the 1980-2000 time period, most
of the mined lands will be in an early stage of succession  (modi-
fied by early introduction of perennial grasses).  For example,
ground squirrels, pocket gophers, and kangaroo rats will be abun-
dant if spoil conditions permit burrowing, although on some mines,
spoil textures may limit their occurrence.  However, total numbers
or biomass of these small vertebrates may be less than the origi-
nal population, especially if grazing is permitted or plant cover
is low.  In contrast, those Group 1 species that depend on mature
sage stands will be found in very small numbers.   The resulting
local change in prey species composition will probably not cause
a change in the relative abundance of different predators.  Po-
tential exceptions are the golden and wintering bald eagles and
the larger buzzard hawks, which prey heavily and sometimes almost
exclusively on rabbits.  The overall impact of hunting, trapping,
and illegal shooting will probably have a more important effect
on predator numbers than mining.

     Other ecological impacts associated with land use, population
increases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes
as described for 1990 and for 2000 will continue during the 30-year
lifetime of the facilities.

7.5.5  Summary of Ecological Impacts

     Four factors associated with construction and operation of
the scenario facilities can significantly affect the ecological
impacts of energy development:  land use, population increases,
water use and water pollution, and air quality changes.  Land use
by urban population and energy facilities during the 30-year
lifetime of the facilities will total 39,112 acres, 1.3 percent
of the acres of land in Campbell County.  By 2000, urban popula-
tion in Campbell County will be 75,400, an increase of 4.4 times
the 1975 population.  Water withdrawal for energy development
from the Yellowstone River will represent 1 percent of its low
flow and from the North Platte River, 22 percent of its low flow.
Increased municipal water demands will be met with groundwater


     ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management,
et al.  Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed
Development of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal
Basin of Wyoming, 6 vols.  Cheyenne, Wyo.:  Bureau of Land Man-
agement, 1974; and Lang, R.L.  "Vegetation Changes Between 1943
and 1965 on the Shortgrass Plains of Wyoming."  Journal of Range
Management, Vol. 26  (November 1973), pp. 407-9.

                              602
-------
         TABLE 7-57:
HABITAT  GROUPS  OF  SELECTED ANIMALS
REPRESENTATIVE  OF  THE STUDY AREA
 Group I
   Animals heavily dependent on sagebrush
   for food or cover or nesting sites or
   combination thereof and/or other up-
   land shrubs such as greasewood, salt-
   brush, and rabbitbrush, especially
   for winter feed
                   Pronghorn Antelope
                   Mule Deer
                   White-tailed Deer
                   Sagebrush Vole
                   Deer Mouse
                   Least Chipmunk
                   White-tailed Prairie Dog
                   White-tailed Jackrabbit
 Group II
   Animals feeding heavily on seeds and/
   or foliage or roots of weedy species
   of forb or annual grasses and/or nest-
   ing on ground in open grasslands
                   Thirteen-lined Ground Squirrel
                   Richardson's Ground Squirrel
                   Northern Pocket Gopher
                   Wyoming Pocket Gopher
                   Ord's Kangaroo Rat
                   Western Harvest Mouse
 Group III
   Animals nesting on the ground in open
   grasslands and/or feeding primarily on
   perennial grass seeds or foliage
                   Black-tailed Prairie Dog
                   Prairie Vole
                   Chestnut Collared Longspur
                   McCown's Longspur
 Group IV
   Animals that depend primarily on the
   riparian (stream-side)  plant associ-
   ations and/or marshy or moist meadow
   areas around lakes or ponds to directly
   or indirectly provide food or cover or
   nesting or breeding sites
                   Raccoon
                   Mink
                   Striped Skunk
                   Beaver
                   Muskrat
                   Long-tailed Vole
                   Black-billed Magpie
                   Red-shafted Flicker
 Group V
   Animals requiring the open pine timber,
   juniper breaks, or rough, rocky topog-
   raphy for cover or food or nesting
   sites
                   Elk
                   Bushytail Wood Rat
                   Porcupine
                   Pygmy Nuthatch
                   Cassins Kingbird
                   White-winged Junco
                   Pinon Jay
Source:  U.S., Department of the Interior,  Bureau of  Land Management,  et al.
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the  Proposed Development  of Coal
Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal  Basin of Wyoming,  6 vols.
Cheyenne, Wyo.:   Bureau of Land Management, 1974.
                                     603
-------
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from local aquifers.  Effluents from the plants will be ponded
to prevent water pollution.  Increased wastewater from the urban
population will require updated sewage treatment facilities.
Typical and peak concentrations of criteria pollutants from the
facilities for coal export, power plant, Lurgi plant, Synthane
plant, and"uranium mill are not expected to violate any federal
or Wyoming ambient air standards.  Peak concentrations from both
the gas wells and Synthoil plant will violate the federal and
Wyoming 3-hour HC ambient air standard.

     The sources and expected period of major ecological impacts
are shown in Table 7-58.  Major impacts of the Gillette scenario
are ranked according to the total area and number of species which
they affect in Table 7-59.  Class A impacts are considered most
severe because they affect the largest number of species over an
extensive area.  In this scenario, habitat fragmentation takes
place in a large area important to antelope.  Poaching and ille-
gal shooting affect both game and nongame species and are often
widespread.

     Another direct impact of the scenario is the low-flow.re-
duct ion in the North Platte River from cumulative water with-
drawals.  Although uncertain due to lack of knowledge about the
river channel in the scenario area, some detectable changes in
the productivity of the ecosystem may result, at least during
years of below-average flow.

     Finally, the greatest potential impact arises from the in-
direct land-use pressures of a large increase in population.
Especially significant is game poaching during construction peaks,
which may decimate the area's small elk herds.

     Suburban habitat fragmentation, concentrated human activity,
and similar localized impacts associated with growth of an urban
center such as Gillette are ranked as Class B impacts.  Though
they may affect several species, the geographic area in which
the impacts are realized is relatively small.

     Because the geographic area affected by facilities siting
is small compared to the total amount of similar available habi-
tat, grazing losses are given the most minor of rankings:   Class
C.

     The cumulative impact of facility siting on habitat quantity
and quality will principally reflect the success of reclamation
and the degree to which habitat is fragmented and the movements
of wide-ranging species are disrupted by the new rail line and
its parallel high-traffic highway.  Antelope will probably be
most sensitive to this impact because of the large range they
normally occupy.
                               605
-------
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                                     607
-------
              TABLE  7-59:
SUMMARY OF MAJOR FACTORS
AFFECTING ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
IMPACT-
CATEGORY
Class A







Class B

Class C
Uncertain



1975-1980
Habitat
fragmentation



Increased
recreational
use of public
lands
Growth of
Gillette
Grazing losses
(facilities
siting)




1980-1990
Habitat
fragmentation
Poaching and
illegal
shooting
Stream flow
reductions
Increased
recreational
use of public
lands
Growth of
Gillette
Grazing losses
(facilities
siting)


Irrigated
agricultural
losses

1990-2000
Habitat
fragmentation
Poaching and
illegal
shooting
Stream flow
reductions
Increased
recreational
use of public
lands
Growth of
Gillette
Grazing losses
(facilities
siting)
Sulfate fallout
in Black Hills
Irrigated
agricultural
losses
7.6  OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT GILLETTE

     The intended energy benefit from the hypothetical develop-
ments in the Gillette area will be the production and shipment of
50 million tons of coal per year, 100,000 barrels of synthetic
oil, 750 million standard cubic feet per day of synthetic and
natural gas, and 3,000 MW of electricity.  In addition, 1,250
metric tons per year of UsOs will be produced for enrichment for
nuclear reactors.  Locally, the benefits include increased income
to the city and county, increased retail and wholesale trade, and
secondary economic development.  Campbell County will also re-
ceive increased tax revenues as will the state of Wyoming.
                               608
-------
     Social, economic, and political impacts associated with en-
ergy development in the Gillette area tend to be a function of
the labor and capital-intensity of development and, when multiple
facilities are involved, of scheduling their construction.  These
factors determine the pace and extent of migration of people to
the scenario area as well as the financial and managerial capa-
bility of local governments to provide services and facilities
for the increased population.  Labor forces increase the popula-
tion directly and indirectly.  More manpower is required for the
operation of the uranium mine and coal mines than for construction,
but conversion facilities require more manpower for construction
(at its peak) than for operation.  Of the scenario facilities,
the Synthoil facility is the most labor-intensive.  Suitable
scheduling of facility construction can minimize population in-
stability usually associated with construction forces.  Revenue
for local, state, and federal governments is generated by prop-
erty taxes, sales taxes, a severance tax, and royalty payments
on federally owned coal.  Although Gillette is a relatively large
community, it may have difficulty in meeting the demands asso-
ciated with the expected population increase.  Wyoming offers
funding assistance for communities needing expanded public ser-
vices and facilities to meet demands of new residents.  Lifestyle
and cultural differences among residents and newcomers influence
the way in which impacts from energy development are perceived.
As a result, if people who have migrated out of the area returned
and were hired along with some local unemployed laborers to meet
the manpower requirements for energy facility construction and
operation, then the impacts caused by a population of strangers
would not be as great.

     If all facilities are constructed according to the hypothe-
sized schedule, social, economic, and political changes in Camp-
bell County will stem primarily from a four- to fivefold growth
in population.  Housing demands will be largely met by mobile
homes.  Nearly 1.3 percent of Campbell County will undergo changes
in land use adding significantly to the assessed valuation.  How-
ever, the tax base for Gillette will not increase enough to meet
new demands placed on public services, and the political strength
within the county may shift from ranchers and businessmen to
energy developers.

     Technological variables affecting these impacts are primar-
ily alternatives between exporting coal or converting it within
Campbell County.  Construction of conversion facilities requires
20 to 30 times the labor of a mine alone and would not produce
great fluctuations in the work force.  However,  if the coal were
shipped from the region, the tax base for Campbell County would
significantly diminish.  If export mining resulted in increased
rail service rather than slurry lines, impacts would depend on
the extent of new rail access to the region and the degree to
which rail lines would be monopolized by coal cars.


                               609
-------
     Air quality impacts associated with energy development are
related primarily to quantities of pollutants emitted by the en-
ergy facilities and to diffuse emissions associated with the popu-
lation.  The power plant emits higher concentrations of all cri-
teria pollutants other than HC than the other conversion facili-
ties.  The sulfur content of coal in the scenario area is low
enough that a power plant with no emission controls could meet
the SO2 NSPS but not the ambient air standards.

     Both the Synthoil plant and natural gas production facilities
emit HC in amounts that will result in ambient air concentrations
in excess of both Wyoming and federal standards.  In addition,
current levels of HC in the city of Gillette are estimated to be
in excess of standards, and any addition from the plants and ad-
ditional urban growth will exacerbate this problem.  If the Black
Hills National Forest to the east is reclassified as a Class I
area, significant deterioration increments for S02 will be ex-
ceeded.  In addition, the plumes of the plants will be visible
from many locations in the area, and average long-range visibility
will be reduced by up to 8 percent when all the facilities are
operating.  Under adverse meteorological conditions, visibility
will be reduced to an even greater extent.

     Several potential air controls could ameliorate the extent
of the air impacts, although the HC problem cannot be solved short
of enclosing the entire plant or making major improvements in
valve and flange design.  Either a reduction in plant size, im-
proved scrubbers, or coal washing to remove inorganic sulfur would
reduce sulfur emissions to minimize potential conflicts with sig-
nificant deterioration standards.  Increasing precipitator effi-
ciency to 99.5 percent would result in less reduction in visi-
bility and reduce emissions of most trace elements by 50 percent.

     Water impacts associated with energy development in the
Gillette area depend on the water requirements of and effluents
produced by the facilities.  Of the coal conversion facilities,
the power plant has the largest water requirement and the Lurgi
plant, the smallest.  Water consumed by the energy facilities
(if all those hypothesized are constructed) will significantly
affect the streams used as water sources, especially the North
Platte River where the low flow will be reduced by about 22 per-
cent.  This reduction in flow would also increase in-stream sa-
linity and affect downstream agricultural users as well as the
quality of water for aquatic life.  Groundwater quality may also
be affected by leaching chemicals from settling ponds and by the
erosion of storage ponds.  Surface water quality in the immediate
vicinity of Gillette is also threatened by inadequate sewage
treatment facilities.

     Technological changes could significantly affect the con-
sumptive use of water.  One small power plant in the Gillette
region is currently using dry cooling, and the potential exists

                               610
-------
for using dry-cooling towers or wet/dry cooling for the hypothe-
tical conversion facilities in this scenario.  This would signifi-
cantly affect the potential conflicts that might arise from using
the waters of the North Platte or in transporting water from the
Yellowstone River in Montana to Wyoming.

     Ecological impacts associated with energy development in the
Gillette area are a function of land use, population increases,
water use and water pollution, and air quality changes.  Most of
the land use will be due to mining activities.  However, it is
expected that much of the mined land will be returned to grass-
land following reclamation.  This change, together with habitat
fragmentation, will likely decrease productivity of selected
species.  Combined with habitat attrition and poaching from the
increased population, some species of game will be adversely af-
fected unless positive steps are initiated in protection and game
management.  Consumptive use of water for plant cooling and slurry
transport will reduce the extent of riparian habitat and the
quality of the aquatic ecosystem, and the new rail line will limit
movement of antelope, reducing population size.  The principal
technological variables affecting ecological impacts include pop-
ulation size and water consumption addressed above and alternative
methods for transporting energy resources.
                               611
-------
                            CHAPTER 8

           THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
                      AT THE COLSTRIP AREA
8.1  INTRODUCTION

     The Colstrip area of Rosebud County in southeastern Montana
is shown in Figure 8-1.  The energy developments proposed for this
area consist of surface coal mining, an electric power generating
plant, Lurgi and Synthane high British thermal unit (Btu) gasifi-
cation plants, and a Synthoil coal liquefaction plant (Figure 8-2)
Extra-high voltage transmission lines transport electricity from
the power plant to demand centers in the midwestern U.S.  These
facilities are to be constructed between 1977 and 2000.   Coal char
acteristics, technological alternatives, and the scenario's devel-
opment schedule are summarized in Table 8-1. 1

     In all four impact sections of this chapter (air, water, so-
cial and economic, and ecological) , the factors that produce im-
pacts are identified and discussed separately for each energy fa-
cility type.  In the air and water sections, the impacts caused
by those factors are also discussed separately for each  facility
type and, in combination, for a scenario in which all facilities
are constructed according to the scenario schedule.  In  the sec-
tion on social and economic impacts (8.4)  and on ecological im-
pacts (8.5), only the combined impacts of the scenario are dis-
cussed.  This distinction is made because social, economic, and
ecological effects are, for the most part, higher order  impacts.
Consequently, facility by facility impact discussions would have
been repetitive in nearly every respect.

     Rosebud County's 1975 population was about 8,600, with agri-
culture the major source of earned income (33 percent in 1972).
Other major sectors of economic activity are government, wholesale
and retail trade, and construction.  Construction activity has
          e this hypothetical development may parallel developments
proposed by Northern Natural Gas, Western Energy, Westmoreland Re-
sources, AMAX Coal, Montana Power, and others, the development
identified here is completely hypothetical.  As with the others,
this scenario was used to structure the assessment of a particular
combination of technologies and existing conditions .
                                612
-------
FIGURE 8-1:  THE  COLSTRIP SCENARIO AREA
                   613
-------
                           3000-3600
                           2500-3000
                           Below 2500
FIGURE  8-2:
THE  LOCATION OF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES
AT COLSTRIP
                                614
-------
TABLE  8-1:   RESOURCES  AND  HYPOTHESIZED  FACILITIES  AT  COLSTRIP
Resources
Coal (billions of tons)
Resources 1. 4
Proved Reserves 1.1





Technologies
Extraction
pn3 1
l^UclX
Four surface area mir.es of
varying capacity using
draglines

Conversion
One 3,000 MWe power plant consis-
ting of four 750 MWe turbine gener-
ators; 34% plant efficiency; 80%
efficient limestone scrubbers; 99%
efficient electrostatic precipita-
tor; and wet forced-draft cooling
towers
One Lurgi Coal Gasification plant
operating at 73% thermal effi-
ciency; nickel-catalyzed methana-
tion process; Claus plant H2S re-
moval; and wet forced-draft cool-
ing towers
One Synthane Coal Gasification
plant operating at S0% thermal ef-
ficiency; nickel-catalyzed metha-
nation process; Claus plant H2S
removal; and wet forced-draft
cooling towers
One Synthoil Coal Liquefaction
plant operating at 92% thermal
efficiency; Claus plant H2S re-
moval; and wet forced-draft cool-
ing towers
Transportation
Coal
Transportation from the mines to
facilities provided by trucks
Gas
One 30-inch pipeline
Oil
One 16-inch pipeline
Electricity
Fcur 500 kV lines


CHARACTERISTICS

U
Coalb
Heat Content 8,870 Btu's/lb
Moisture 24 %
Volatile Matter 39 %
Fixed Carbon 51 %
Ash 10 %
Sulfur 1 %
FACILITY
SIZE
16 . 8 MMtpy
9.6 MMtpy
8.4 MMtpy
12.0 MMtpy

750 MWe
750 MWe
1,500 MWe




250 MMscfd





250 MMscfd





100,000 bbl/day









250 MMscfd

100,000 bbl/day

500 kV
500 kV
500 kV (2)
COMPLETION
DATE
1984
1989
1994
1999

1982
1984
1985




1990





1995





2000









1990

2000

1982
1994
1985
FACILITY
SERVICED
Power Plant
Lurgi
Synthane
Synthoil






























Lurgi Plant

Synthoil Plant

Power Plant
Power Plant
Power Plant
     3tu's/lb =  British thermal units per pound
     MMtpy = million tons per year
     MWe = megawatt-electric
     MMscfd = million standard cubic  feet per day
H2S = hydrogen sulfide
bbl/day  =  barrels per day
kV = kilovolts
      Montana Energy Advisory Council.  Coal Development  Information Packat.  Helena, Mont.:
     State of Montana, 1974.

      Ctvrtnicek, I.E., S.J. Rusek,  and C.W. Sandy.   Evaluation of Low-Sulfur Western Ccal
     Characteristics, Utilization,  and Combustion Experience, EPA-650/2-75-046, Contract No.
     68-02-1302.  Dayton, Ohio:   Monsanto Research Corporation, 1975.
                                            615
-------
            TABLE  8-2:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF THE
COLSTRIP AREA
        Environment
          Elevation
          Precipitation
          Air  Stability
          Vegetation
                           o
        Social  and  Economic

          Landownership
            Federal
            State
            Private

          Population  Density

          Unemployment

          Income
       3,000-4,000 feet
       12-16 inches average annually
       Air stagnation most fre-
         quent during fall and
         winter
       Ponderosa pines at higher
         elevations;  rolling grass-
         lands at lower elevations
            4.7  %
            5.1  %
           90.2  %

            1.69 per square mile

            6.4  %

       $3,751    per capita annual
       *a
        Rosebud  County.

        June 1978 (Source:   Montana State Government,  Office
       of Research Analysis, Helena, Montana).

       °1972 Data.

increased substantially as a result of recent energy development
in the area.  Per capita income in Rosebud County has been slightly
lower than the Montana average, averaging out the prosperous ranch-
ing activity and the relative poverty of the Northern Cheyenne In-
dians, who comprised 28 percent of the population in 1970.

     The area around Colstrip is generally a semiarid plateau, dis-
sected by several tributaries of the Yellowstone River.  The topog-
raphy ranges from gently rolling basins to rugged uplands and eroded
buttes.  Rangeland accounts for 77 percent of the county.  Although
most land in Rosebud County is privately owned, the federal govern-
ment owns much of the mineral rights.

     Both groundwater and surface water are available in the area,
the latter primarily from the Yellowstone and Tongue Rivers and
Rosebud Creek.  Air quality in the area is good, with the major
present pollutant being blowing dust.  Selected characteristics
of the area are summarized in Table 8-2.
                                616
-------
8.2  AIR IMPACTS1

8.2.1  Existing Conditions

A.  Background Pollutants

     Air quality in the Colstrip area is currently affected by
several sources of air emissions, the largest of which are the
Colstrip 1 and 2 generating facilities and the Ashland Timber Com-
pany.  Coal strip mines in the area may also cause some localized
increases in pollutant concentrations.  Measurements of concentra-
tions of criteria pollutants2 taken in the Colstrip area do not
violate any federal or Montana Standards.3  Based on these measure-
ments, the annual average background levels chosen as inputs to
the air dispersion model are (in micrograms per cubic meter
[yg/m3]):  sulfur dioxide (802), 6; particulates , 15; and nitro-
gen dioxide (NOa) / 10 . "*
B.  Meteorological Conditions

     The worst dispersion conditions for the Colstrip area are
associated with stable air conditions, low wind speeds (less than
5-10 miles per hour) ,  unchanging wind direction, and relatively
     :The federal standards referred to in this section are those
promulgated prior to the revisions mandated by the Clean Air Act
Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685.

     2Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air quality
standards are in force:  carbon monoxide (CO), nonmethane hydro-
carbons (HC), N02 , oxidants, particulates, and S02.   The term
"hydrocarbons" is generally used to refer to nonmethane HC.  The
HC standard serves as a guideline for achieving oxidant standards.

     3U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Region VIII Energy
Office, Surveillance Analysis Division.  Ambient Air Quality Mon-
itoring Network—EPA Region VIII Energy Areas, Report No.908/4-
77-011.  Denver, Colo.:  Environmental Protection Agency, October
1977.

     4These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's best
professional judgment.  They are used as the best estimates of the
concentrations to be expected at any particular time.  Measurements
of HC and CO are not available in the rural areas.  However, high-
background HC levels have been measured at other rural locations
in the West and may occur here.  Background CO levels are now as-
sumed to be relatively low.  Measurements of long-range visibility
in the area are not available, but the average is estimated to be
60 miles.

                                617
-------
low mixing depths.1  These conditions are likely to increase
concentrations of pollutants from both ground-level and elevated
sources.2  Since worst-case conditions differ at each facility,
annual average pollutant levels vary among locations even if pol-
lutant sources are identical.  Meteorological conditions in the
area are generally unfavorable for pollution dispersion more than
27 percent of the time.  Hence, plume impaction3 and limited plume
mixing caused by temperature inversions at stack height can be ex-
pected to occur regularly.4  Favorable dispersion conditions asso-
ciated with moderate winds and large mixing depths are expected to
occur about 14 percent of the time.

     The pollution dispersion potential for the Colstrip area var-
ies considerably with the season and time of day.  Fall and winter
mornings are most frequently associated with poor dispersion due
largely to low wind speeds, low mixing depths, and the prevalence
of high-pressure systems during these seasons.  The highest poten-
tial for dispersion occurs during the spring when low-level winds
are strongest.

8.2.2  Factors Producing Impacts

     The primary air emission sources in the Colstrip scenario are
a power plant, three coal conversion facilities  (Lurgi, Synthane,
and Synthoil), supporting surface coal mines, and those sources
associated with population increases.  The focus of this section
is on emissions of criteria pollutants from the energy facilities.5
Table 8-3 lists the amounts of the five criteria pollutants emitted
by each of the four facilities.  In all four cases, most emissions
come from the plants rather than the mines.  Most mine-related pol-
lution will originate from diesel engine combustion products,


     1 Mixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upward
boundary of pollution dispersion.

     2Ground-level sources include towns and strip mines that emit
pollutants close to ground level.  Elevated sources are stack
emitters.

     3Plume impaction occurs when stack plumes impinge on elevated
terrain because of limited atmospheric mixing and stable air con-
ditions .

     ''See National Climatic Center.  Wind Dispersion by Pasquill
Stability Classes, Star Program for Selected U.S. Cities.
Ashville, N.C.:National Climatic Center,1975.

     5Air impacts associated with population increase are discussed
below  (Section  8.2.3)  as those impacts relate to the scenario,
which  includes  all  facilities  constructed  according to the hypo-
thesized schedule.

                                618
-------
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-------
primarily nitrogen oxides (NOX)/  hydrocarbons (EC) ,  and particu-
lates.  Although water spray will be used to suppress dust in this
scenario, some additional particulates will occur from blasting,
coal piles, and blowing dust.1

     The largest of these sources, the power plant,  has four 750-
megawatt-electric (MWe) boilers,  each with its own stack.2  The
plant is equipped with electrostatic precipitators (ESP)  which re-
move 99 percent of particulates and scrubbers which  remove 80 per
cent of the 862 and from 0 to 40  percent of the NOx.3  The plant
has two 75,000-barrel oil storage tanks, with standard floating
roof construction, each of which  will emit about 0.7  pound of HC
per hour.  Table 8-4 lists the amounts of particulates, SO2 , and
NOX expected to be emitted (in pounds per million Btu)  from the
power plant operating under the conditions described above and
compares emissions to the New Source Performance Standards (NSPS).^
Particulate and NOX emissions just meet NSPS with 99  percent total
suspended particulate  (TSP)  removal and 40 percent scrubber removal
of NOX.  If the scrubbers remove  none of the NOX emissions, the
NSPS will be violated.  In order  to just meet NSPS,  a minimum of
20 percent of S02 emissions and 36 percent of NOX emissions removal
would be required.5

     The power plant and the three coal conversion facilities are
cooled by wet forced-draft cooling towers.  Each cell circulates
water at a rate of 15,330 gallons per minute (gpm)  and emits 0.01
percent of its water as a mist.  The circulating water has a total
dissolved solids (TDS) content of 3,200 parts per million (ppm),
which results in a salt emission  rate of 21,200 pounds per year
for each cell.6


     I1he effectiveness of current dust suppression  practices is
uncertain.  Research being conducted by the Environmental Protec-
tion Agency (EPA) is investigating this question.  The issue of
fugitive dust is discussed qualitatively in Chapter  10.

     2Each stack is 500 feet high.

     Efficiency of NOX removal may vary from 0 to 40 percent.

     ''NSPS limit the amount of a given pollutant a stationary
source may emit; the limit expressed relative to the amount of
energy in the fuel burned.

     5The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L.  95-95, 91 Stat.
697 § 109, requires both an emissions limitation and a percentage
reduction of S02, particulates, and NOX.  Revised standards have
not yet been established by the EPA.

     6The power plant has 64 cells, the Lurgi plant  has 11, the
Synthane plant has 6,  and the Synthoil plant has 16.

                               620
-------
    TABLE  8-4:
COMPARISON OF EMISSIONS FROM POWER PLANT WITH
NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARD
(pounds per million Btu)
POWER PLANT
Particulates
S02,
N0xb
EMISSION
0.10
0.48
0.65-1.08
NSPS3
0.1
1.2
0.7
 NSPS  =  New  Source  Performance
         Standards
 Btu = British thermal  unit
                  S02 = sulfur dioxide
                  NO  = oxides of nitrogen
  The Montana  state  standard  for  S02  emissions  is  one  pound  per
 million Btu plus  the maximum control capability which is  tech-
 nically practicable and  economically feasible  as  determined by
 the Air Quality Bureau.   Data from White,  Irvin L., et al.
 Energy From the West;  Energy Resource  Development  Systems  Report,
 Washington,D.C.:U.S.,Environmental  Protection Agency,forth-
 coming, Chapter 2.

  Range indicates  NO removal b>  scrubber of  0  and 40  percent.
8.2.3  Impacts

     This section describes air quality impacts which result from
each type of coal conversion facility (Lurgi, Synthane, Synthoil,
and power plant)  taken separately1 and from a scenario which in-
cludes construction of all facilities according to the hypothe-
sized scenario schedule.  For the power plant the effect on air
quality of hypothesized emission controls, alternative emission
controls, and alternative stack heights are discussed.  The focus
is on concentrations of criteria pollutants  (particulates, S02,
N02 ,  HC,  and carbon monoxide  [CO]).

     See Chapter 10 for a qualitative description of sulfates,
other oxidants, fine particulates, long-range visibility, plume
opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, and cooling tower fogging
and icing.

     In all cases, air quality impacts result primarily from the
operation rather than the construction of these facilities.  Con-
struction impacts are limited to periodic increases in particulate
concentrations due to windblown dust, which may cause periodic vio-
lations of 24-hour ambient particulate standards.

     TAir quality impacts caused by the surface mines are expected
to be negligible in comparison with impacts caused by conversion
facilities.
                                621
-------
A.  Power Plant Impacts

     Concentrations of criteria pollutants resulting from power
plant emissions depend largely on the extent of emission control
imposed.  Concentrations resulting from the hypothesized case
where control equipment removes 80 percent of the SO2' and 99 per-
cent of the particulates are discussed first followed by a dis-
cussion of alternative emission controls and alternative stack
heights.

(1)  Hypothesized Emission Control

     Table 8-5 summarizes the typical and peak concentration of
four criteria pollutants predicted to be produced by a power plant
(3,000 MWe, 80 percent S02 removal, 99 percent TSP removal).  These
pollutants (particulates,•S02, N02, and HC) are regulated by the
federal and Montana state ambient air quality standards, which are
shown in Table 8-5.  Peak concentrations from the plant will not
violate ambient air standards but will exceed the Class II pre-
vention of significant deterioration (PSD) increment for 3-hour
S02.l  Peak concentrations from the power plant will exceed all
Class I increments except that for annual particulates, with typ-
ical concentrations violating the 24-hour and 3-hour S02 increment.

     Since the plant exceeds Class I increments, it would have to
be located a sufficient distance from any Class I area so that
emissions will be diluted by atmospheric mixing to acceptable con-
centrations prior to reaching such areas.  The distance required
for this dilution (which varies by facility type, size, emission
controls, and meteorological conditions) in effect establishes a
"buffer zone" around Class I areas.  Current Environmental Pro-
tection Agency (EPA) regulations require a minimum buffer zone of
75 miles between the power plant and any Class I area boundary.2

(2)  Alternative Emission Controls

     The base case control for the Colstrip power plant assumed an
S02 scrubber efficiency of 80 percent and an ESP efficiency of 99
percent.  The effect on ambient air quality of three additional
     XPSD standards apply only to particulates and SOa•

     2Note that buffer zones around energy facilities will not be
symmetric circles.  This lack of symmetry is clearly illustrated
by area "wind roses," which show wind direction and strength pat-
terns for various areas and seasons.  Hence, the direction of PSD
areas from energy facilities will be critical to the size of the
buffer zone required.  Note also that the term "buffer zone" is
in disfavor.  We use it because we believe it accurately describes
the effect of PSD requirements.

                               622
-------
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-------
emission control alternatives is illustrated in Table 8-6.   These
alternatives include a 95 percent efficient S02 scrubber used in
conjunction with a 99 percent efficient ESP; an 80 percent efficient
S02 scrubber without an ESP;  and an alternative in which neither a
scrubber "nor an ESP are utilized.  In each case, plant capacity is
assumed to be 3,000 MWe with 500-foot stack heights.

     An examination of Table 8-6 reveals that by using a 95 percent
efficient S02 scrubber with an ESP, the power plant can meet all
applicable standards.  The base case violates 3-hour Class II PSD
increments for SOz emissions.  Removal of the ESP results in vio-
lations of National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for 24-
hour TSP emissions and Class II PSD increments for 24-hour and
annual TSP emissions.

(3)  Alternative Stack Heights

     In order to examine the effects of alternative stack heights
on ambient air quality in the Colstrip scenario, worst-case dis-
persion modeling was carried out for a 300-foot stack (a lowest
stack height consistent with good engineering practice), a 500-
foot stack (an average or most frequently used stack height), and
a 1,000-foot stack height (a highest stack height).  Emissions from
each stack are controlled by an 80 percent efficient S02 scrubber
and a 99 percent efficient ESP.  The 500-foot stack height was
given previously as part of the base case.  Table 8-7 illustrates
the results of this analysis.

     A comparison of predicted emissions with applicable standards
in Table 8-7 shows violations of the Class II PSD increments for
3-hour S02 emissions with both a 300- and a 500-foot stack height.
The 300-foot case also violates the Class II PSD increment for 24-
hour SO2 emissions.  The only case which violates no applicable
standards is the 1,000-foot stack height.

(4)  Summary of Air Impacts of Power Plant

     The frequency of current violations of the NAAQS particulate
standards at the Colstrip power plant site will probably increase
during the construction phase of the power plant due to blowing
dust.  Once the plant is in operation, the 3,000 MWe plant at
Colstrip (80 percent S02 removal, 99 percent TSP removal, 500-foot
stack height) is expected to violate Class II PSD increments for
3-hour S02 emissions.  No other applicable standards should be
violated by this facility.  If the plant were equipped with a 95
percent efficient S02 scrubber or if stack heights were increased
to 1,000 feet, all applicable standards would be met.

B.  Lurgi Impacts

     Typical and peak pollutant concentrations from the Lurgi plant
are summarized in Table 8-8.  Peak concentrations from the plant

                                624
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will not violate any federal or Montana ambient air standards, nor
will they exceed Class II PSD increments.  However, the plant ex-
ceeds Class I increments for the 3-hour SOa averaging time.  This
PSD violation would require a buffer zone of 7.8 miles between
this plant and any Class I area boundary in order to comply with
current EPA regulations.

C.  Synthane Impacts

     Typical and peak concentrations from the Synthane gasification
plant are summarized in Table 8-9.   These data show that no ambient
standards will be violated and no Class II PSD increments will be
exceeded.  However, the Synthane plant will violate Class I incre-
ments for 24-hour and 3-hour SC-2.   These emission levels would re-
quire a buffer zone of 7.1 miles.   The plant-mine combination may
reduce visibility over short time periods in a worst-case situa-
tion (expected to occur infrequently)  to between 2 and 11 miles,
depending on the amount of SC>2 converted to particulates in the
atmosphere.l

D.  Synthoil Impacts

     Table 8-10 lists typical concentrations from the Synthoil
liquefaction plant and peak concentrations from the plant.  The
Synthoil plant will exceed only the 3-hour HC standard, but will
do so by a factor of more than 100.  It will not exceed any Class
II PSD increments.  However, it will violate the Class I incre-
ments for annual and 24-hour S02.   These potential Class I viola-
tions would require a buffer zone of 13.4 miles.

E.  Scenario Impacts

(1)  To 1980

     Construction of the hypothetical power plant will begin in
the 1975-1980 period, but the plant will not become operational
until after 1980.  The population of Colstrip should increase from
the 1975 level of 3,000 to 4,080 by I960.2  This increase will con-
tribute to increases in pollution concentrations due solely to ur-
ban sources.  Pollution from energy-related population increases
will be mainly due to additional automobile traffic.  Concentrations


     1 Short-term visibility impacts were investigated using a "box-
type" dispersion model.  This particular model assumes that all
emissions occurring during a specified time interval are uniformly
mixed and confined in a box that is capped by a lid or stable layer
aloft.  A lid of 500 meters has been used through the analyses.
SO2 to sulfate conversion rates of ten percent and one percent
were modeled.

     2Refer to Section 8.4.3.

                                628
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have been estimated from available data on average emission per
person in several western cities.  Table 8-11 lists predicted con-
centrations of the five criteria pollutants measured in the center
of town and at a point 3 miles from the center of town.  This in-
formation shows that the only ambient standard violated in Colstrip
due to urban sources is that for HC.1

(2)  To 1990

     The power plant will become operational in 1985, and a Lurgi
gasification plant will become operational in 1989.  Interactions
of the pollutants from the plants are minimal because they have
been (hypothetically)  sited 6 miles apart.  If the wind blows di-
rectly from one plant to the other, plumes will interact.  However,
the resulting concentrations would be less than those produced by
either plant and mine combination when the wind blows from the
plant to the mine (peak plant/mine concentration).  The predicted
maximum pollutant concentration resulting from interactions of the
power plant and Lurgi facilities at a 6-mile separation distance
just meet the Class II PSD increment for 24-hour SOa emissions;
but the Class II PSD increment for 3-hour S02 is violated.  Had
the plants been sited closer together, the probability of the in-
teractions would increase.

     When the power plant and Lurgi facility are both operating,
visibility is expected to decrease from the current average of 60
miles in the region near Miles City, Montana to 58 miles.  In a
worst-case situation, expected to occur infrequently, short-term
visibilities could be reduced to between 3 and 9 miles depending
on the amount of SOa converted to particulates in the atmosphere.

     Colstrip1s projected population increase to 5,250 will cause
some increases in urban pollutants (Table 8-11).  As in the 1980
case, the HC standard will be the only one violated.  All other
pollutant concentrations remain well within federal and state
standards.

(3)  To 2000

     Two new facilities, a Synthoil liquefaction plant and a Syn-
thane gasification plant, will become operational between 1990 and
2000.  Interactions between the new Synthoil and Synthane plants
and the Lurgi and electrical generation plants will increase annual
peak concentrations.  Interaction of the Synthane and Synthoil
plants with the power plant will violate Class II PSD increments
for 24-hour and 3-hour S02 emissions.

     When all four of these coal conversion facilities come on-
line in the Colstrip region, visibility is expected to decrease


     1EC standards are violated regularly in most urban areas.

                                631
-------
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-------
from the current average of 60 miles to 56 miles by the year 2000.
In a worst-case situation, expected to occur infrequently, short-
term visibilities could be reduced to between 3 and 9 miles.

     Colstrip's population will increase to 7,910 by the year  2000,
and some increase in pollution concentrations will be associated
with this growth  (Table 8-11).  Although the ambient standard  for
3-hour HC is exceeded, no other ambient standards are approached.

F.  Other Air Impacts

     Nine additional categories of potential air impacts have  re-
ceived preliminary attention; that is, an attempt has been made to
identify sources of pollutants and how energy development may  ef-
fect levels of these pollutants during the next 25 years.  These
include sulfates, oxidants, fine particulates, long-range visibil-
ity, plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, cooling tower
fogging and icing, fugitive dust, and trace element emissions.
Although there are likely to  be local impacts as a consequence of
these pollutants, both the available data and knowledge about  im-
pact mechanisms are insufficient to allow quantitative, site-
specific analyses.  Thus, these are discussed in a more general,
qualitative manner in Chapter 10.

8.2.4  Summary of Air Impacts

     Four new facilities  (a power plant, Lurgi and Synthane gas-
ification plants, and a Synthoil liquefaction plant) are projected
for the Colstrip area.  To just meet NSPS, the 3,000 MWe power
plant would require 99 percent particulate, 20  percent S02, and
36 percent NOX removal.  However, at this level of control, am-
bient air standards would be  violated.  With 80 percent S02 and
99 percent particulate removal,  no federal or Montana ambient air
standards will be violated, but the Class II PSD increment for
3-hour SO2 will be exceeded.   In order to meet this Class II incre-
ment,  the power plant would have to be equipped with a scrubber
which removed 95 percent of the S02 or with 1,000-foot (rather
than 500-foot)  stacks.

     Peak concentrations from the power plant will exceed Class I
increments except that for annual particulates.   Typical concen-
trations will violate the 24-hour and 3-hour SC-2  increments.  These
PSD violations would require  a buffer zone of 75  miles.

     Typical and peak pollutant concentrations  from the Lurgi and
Synthane gasification plants will not violate any federal or
Montana ambient air standards, nor will they exceed any Class II
PSD increments.   However, both plants will exceed Class I incre-
ments;  buffer zones of 7.8 miles for the Lurgi  plant and 7.1 for
the Synthane plant would be required.
                                633
-------
     The only federal or Montana ambient air standard that the
Synthoil plant violates is the. 3-hour HC standard, but it does so
by a factor of more than 100.  No Class II PSD increments will be
exceeded.  However, the Class I increments for 24-hour S02 , 3-hour
S02 , and annual S02 will be exceeded.  These .PSD violations would
require a buffer zone of 13.4 miles.

     If all four facilities are constructed according to the hy-
pothesized schedule, population increases, in Colstrip will add to
existing pollutant levels.  Violations of HC standards will be
exacerbated by concentrations due solely to urban sources.

8.3  WATER IMPACTS

8.3.1  Introduction

     Energy resource development facilities in the Colstrip sce-
nario are sited in the Yellowstone River Basin, a subbasin of the
Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB) .  Although several large tribu-
taries could be used (see Figure 8-3) , the major water source for
this development is the Yellowstone River.  Annual precipitation
in the area is about 14 inches, 3-4 inches of which fall as snow.1
Thus , the area receives adequate precipitation to sustain local
water demands by irrigation, municipal, and industrial users.

8.3.2  Existing Conditions

A.  Groundwater

     The largest aquifer systems in the Colstrip area are the Mad-
ison aquifer, aquifer systems in the coal and sandstone beds of the
Tongue River Member of the Fort Union Formation, and alluvial aqui-
fers.  Although the Madison aquifer is quite deep in the Colstrip
area (about 7,500 feet) ,2 it is considered here as a potential water
source because of its high pressure  (water will rise in a well to
within a few hundred feet of the ground surface) .  The closest re-
charge area of the Madison is along the Bighorn Mountains several
miles southwest of Colstrip.  Discharge is primarily by upward
leakage into overlying strata.

     Although large quantities of water are available from the
Madison aquifer in the southeastern Montana region, its produc-
tivity in the Colstrip area has not been fully evaluated.  A test
well drilled through this aquifer near Colstrip indicates well
          moisture content of one inch of rain is equal to approx-
imately 15 inches of snow.

     2Swenson, Frank A.  Possible Development of Water From Madison
Group and Associated Rock in Powder River Basin, Montana-Wyoming.
Denver , Colo . :  Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974.

                                634
-------
                                   Tongue River  /.   .   ,
                           n  .   „ Reservoir  ./Moorhead
                           Decker* Jl	7	Mont
FIGURE 8-3:
IMPORTANT  HYDROLOGIC  FEATURES OF  THE COLSTRIP

SCENARIO AREA
                                 635
-------
productivity may be between 200 and 300 gpm.1  The TDS content of
the aquifer in the scenario area is about 2,000 milligrams per li-
ter (mg/£).  Although deep wells into the Madison aquifer could
provide a significant fraction of the water required by energy fa-
cilities in the Colstrip area, surface water and shallow ground-
water sources can possibly be developed at less expense.

     Aquifers in the Tongue River Member are in sandstone and coal
beds that are deposited in alternate layers with shales.  The main
coal bed aquifer is the Rosebud coal seam, which is the primary
source of coal at Colstrip.  The water table depth varies but is
usually less than 50 feet.  Yields of individual wells are usually
less than 100 gpm.  Recharge is from rainfall and surface streams.
Discharge is to seeps and springs on hillsides and as baseflow to
the larger streams.

     Water quality in the Tongue River aquifer system is highly
variable, differing with each sandstone body and coal seam.  The
median TDS content of 49 water samples from the Tongue River Mem-
ber was about 900 mg/£,2 and fresh water is generally less, than
1,000 mg/X, (1,000-3,000 mg/S, is considered slightly saline by the
United States Geological Survey [USGS] standards).3  The hardness
of Tongue River aquifer water decreases with depth.1*  At present,
this groundwater is used only for domestic purposes and livestock
watering.  Although the aquifer system of the Tongue River Member
could not support the energy facilities of the scenario, it could
provide water for associated municipal growth.
     1 Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Conservation,
Energy Planning Division.  Draft Environmental Impact Statement
on Colstrip Electric Generating Units 3 and 4, 500 Kilovolt Trans-
mission Lines and Associated Facilities.  Helena, Mont.:  Montana,
Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, 1974, V. 3-A,
p. 359.

     2Hopkins, William B.  Water Resources of the Northern Chey-
enne Indian Reservation and Adjacent Area, Southeastern Montana,
U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Investigations Atlas HA-468.
Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1973.

     3U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey.  Study
and Interpretation of the Chemical Characteristics of Natural Water,
Water Supply Paper 1473.Washington,D.C.:Government Printing
Office, 1970, p. 219.

     4Ibid.. ; and Renick, B. Coleman.  Geology and Groundwater Re-
sources of Central and Southern Rosebud County, Montana, U.S. Geo-
logical Survey Water Supply Paper 600.  Washington, D.C.:  Govern-
ment Printing Office, 1929, p. 40.

                                636
-------
     The alluvial aquifers are along the Yellowstone River and its
tributaries, Rosebud Creek and the Tongue River.  The alluvium
along these rivers is up to 100 feet thick; as much as 60 of that
100 feet are saturated.:  Wells may yield up to 700 gpm for short
periods.  Most recharge to and discharge from these aquifers is by
interflow with the associated streams, with additional water lost
to vegetation and wells.  Water quality in the alluvial aquifers
depends on the quality of the river water and the groundwater re-
ceived from the bedrock formation.  The median TDS content of 16
samples taken from alluvial aquifers was about 1,100 mg/£.2  Pres-
ent uses of water from alluvial aquifers are limited to supplying
domestic and livestock needs..  Alluvial aquifers such as those
along the Tongue River could provide part of the water for munici-
pal growth, but could not support energy facilities.

B.  Surface Water

     The Colstrip scenario lies within the Yellowstone River Sub-
basin of the UMRB.  The Yellowstone and Missouri Rivers contribute
comparable flows at their confluence on the Montana-North Dakota
border.  The main tributaries of the Yellowstone flowing through
the Fort Union coal region are the Powder, Tongue, and Bighorn
Rivers (see Figure 8-3).   Flows for these rivers are shown in
Table 8-12.  The largest reservoir in this part of the Yellowstone
Basin is Bighorn Lake, which is located on the Bighorn River about
75 miles southwest of Colstrip and has a total storage of 1.3 mil-
lion acre-feet (acre-ft).   The only other storage facility of sig-
nificance is the 74,000 acre-ft Tongue River Reservoir about 50
miles south of Colstrip.3

     Flows in lower elevation tributaries to the Yellowstone River
peak between March and early May.  The larger rivers, which depend
on the higher-elevation snowpack for their spring runoff flows,
peak between mid-June and mid-July.  Many of the small streams
have significant discharges from midwinter to early spring as a
result of snowmelt caused by chinook winds or by local thunder-
storms in the summer.  The soils in the area have relatively low
permeability, resulting in low infiltration rates.  Runoff averages
0.2-0.5 inch per year.
     Hopkins, William B.  Water Resources of the Northern Cheyenne
Indian Reservation and Adjacent Area, Southeastern Montana,U.S.
Geological Survey Hydrologic Investigations Atlas HA-468.Wash-
ington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1973.

     2Ibid.

     3Northern Great Plains Resources Program.  Water Work Group
Report.  Billings, Mont.:  U.S., Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Reclamation, 1974.

                                637
-------
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                                                               638
-------
     The Yellowstone River is free-flowing to its confluence with
the Bighorn River.  Because the flows in the Bighorn are about the
same as those of the Yellowstone, and because the Bighorn River is
regulated by Bighorn Lake, the flows in the Yellowstone near For-
syth (where the energy facilities will draw water) are regulated
for most of the year (see Figure 8-3).

     Water supply and use in Montana is shown in Table 8-13.  About
70 percent of total water use is for irrigation.  The majority of
this water is supplied through state and federal projects, but a
portion has been developed privately.  Groundwater also is used
for irrigation but in negligible amounts compared to surface-water
usage.

     With the exception of Glendive, municipalities downstream of
Miles City use groundwater as a public supply; towns upstream from
Miles City use surface water.1

     The water quality of the Yellowstone Basin rivers is generally
good, with the possible exception of the Powder River.  Both the
Tongue and Bighorn are considered of national importance as sport
fishing areas.  The Powder River characteristically has high TDS
concentrations (3,000-10,000 mg/£), which is considered moderately
saline by USGS standards.  Combined with its tendency to dry up in
some stretches in late summer, these TDS levels reduce the Powder
River's potential for use as boiler make-up or drinking water.
The major source of pollution in all three rivers is agricultural.
The representative values of water quality parameters given in
Table 8-14 can help individuals evaluate water quality acceptabil-
ity for specific uses.  Although not reported in this table, iron
and manganese concentrations in Armells Creek at Colstrip commonly
exceed EPA's Proposed National Secondary Drinking Water Regulations.2

8.3.3  Factors Producing Impacts

     The water requirements of and effluents from energy facilities
cause water impacts.  These requirements and effluents are identi-
fied in this section for each type of energy facility.  Associated
population increases also increase municipal water demand and sew-
age effluent; these are presented in Section 8.3.4 for the scenario
which includes all facilities constructed according to the scenario
schedule.	

     Montana, Department of Natural Resources•and Conservation,
Energy Planning Division.  Draft Environmental Impact Statement
on Colstrip Electric Generating Units 3 and 4, 5-QQ Kilovolt Trans-
mission Lines and Associated Facilities.Helena,Mont.:Montana,
Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, 1974.

     2U.S., Environmental Protection Agency.  "National Secondary
Drinking Water Regulations," Proposed Regulations.  42 Fed. Reg.
17,143-47 (March 31, 1977).

                                639
-------
TABLE 8-13:
             ESTIMATED 1975 SURFACE-WATER SITUATION FOR SELECTED
             AREAS IN MONT AN A a
             (1,000 acre-feet)
SUPPLY OR USE
Average Annual Water Supply,
Modified Inflow to Region
Undepleted Water Yield
Estimated 1975 Imports
Total Water Supply
Estimated 1975 Water Usec
Irrigation
M & I Including Rural
Minerals
Thermal Electric
Otherd
Reservoir Evaporation
Total Depletions
Estimated Future Water Supply
Modified 1975 Water Supply6
Estimated Legal or Instream
Commitments
Net Water Supply
YELLOWSTONE
RIVER

6,305
4,239
0
10,544

776
43
10
1
49
234
1,113

9 ,431

0
9,431
UPPER MISSOURI
RIVER

847
8,398
140
9,385

1,480
56
0
0
155
369
2,060

7,325

0
7,325
M & I = municipal and industrial

 U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.  West-
wide Study Report on Critical Water Problems Facing the Eleven
Western States.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office,
1975.

 Inflow reflects the effects of depletions upstream of state lines.

 Includes surface water, surface-related groundwater, and mined
groundwater.

 No depletions are attributed to thermal electric, recreation,
and consumptive conveyance losses.

eModified 1975 supply is determined by subtracting estimated total
water use from total supply.

 Available for future instream uses such as for fish, wildlife,
recreation, power, or navigation or for consumtive use.  Physical
or economic constraints could preclude full development.
                                640
-------
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                                                                                            641
-------
A.  Water Requirements of Energy Facilities

     The water requirements of energy facilities hypothesized for
the Colstrip area are shown in Table 8-15.   Two sets of data are
presented.  The Energy Resource Development System (ERDS)  data are
based on secondary sources (including impact statements, Federal
Power Commission docket filings, and recently published data accu-
mulations1)  and can be considered typical consumptions.  The Water
Purification Associates data are from a study on minimum water-use
requirements for the Colstrip area and take into account opportuni-
ties to recycle water on site as well as the moisture content of
the coal being used and local meteorological data.2  As indicated
in Table 8-15, the power plant requires more water (26,659 acre-
feet per year [acre-ft/yr] assuming high wet cooling)  then the
other coal conversion facilities.  The Synthoil liquefaction facil-
ity will require more than 10,000 acre-ft/yr, the Lurgi gasifica-
tion facility will require more than 6,250  acre-ft/yr, and the
Synthane gasification facility will require more than 7,800 acre-
ft/yr (all cases assuming high wet cooling).  If intermediate wet
cooling (a combination of wet and dry cooling)  is used, water re-
quirements for energy facilities could be reduced from 73 percent
(power plant)  to 16 percent (Synthoil).  If intermediate wet cool-
ing is used for all facilities, the Synthoil plant will require
the most water, 8,481 acre-ft/yr.  From an  economic standpoint,
availability and cost of water often determine which cooling tech-
nology would be the most profitable to use.  For synthetic fuel
facilities,  intermediate wet cooling technology would save money
if water costs more than $1.50 per thousand gallons.  High wet
cooling would be the economic choice for power plants if water
costs less than $3.65 to $5.90 per thousand gallons.  Minimum wet
cooling (i.e., maximum dry cooling), not considered for the power
plant, would result in economic savings at  the synthetic fuel fa-
cilities if water costs more than $2.00 per thousand gallons.  Min-
imum wet cooling would save an additional 9 (Synthoil and Synthane)
to 10 percent (Lurgi) more water than intermediate wet cooling.
If water, costs only $0.25 per thousand gallons and intermediate


     :The ERDS is based on data drawn from University of Oklahoma,
Science and Public Policy Program.  Energy  Alternatives;  A Compar-
ative Analysis.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office,
1975; and Radian Corporation.  A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study,  Final Report, 3 vols. and Executive Summary.  Austin,
Tex.:  Radian Corporation, 1975.  These data are published in
White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West:  Energy Resource
Development Systems Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental
Protection Agency, forthcoming.

     2Gold,  Harris, et al.  Water Requirements for Steam-Electric
Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants  in the Western United
States.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,
1977.

                                 642
-------
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wet cooling is utilized in order to conserve water, the increased
cost of synthetic fuels would be about one cent per million Btu of
fuel more than if high wet cooling had been used.  In the case of
a power plant, the added cost of intermediate wet cooling is 0.1
to 0.2 cents per kilowatt hour of electricity.

     Figure 8-4 indicates the manner in which water is consumed by
the hypothesized energy facilities.  As indicated, more water is
used for cooling than processing and solids disposal combined.
Solids disposal consumes comparable quantities of water for all
technologies, varying primarily as a function of the ash content
of the feedstock coal.

     Additional water requirements are associated with the coal
mines that will support these facilities.   Reclamation efforts
(see Table 8-16)  will use the majority of  the mine water required;
dust control, handling, crushing, and service water requirements
are estimated to be approximately 1,240 acre-ft/yr1 for all four
mines, or 25 percent of that required for reclamation.  However,
the reclamation water requirements are not clearly defined for this
specific coal spoil waste under area climatic conditions.  Table
8-16 estimates were based on an irrigation rate of 9 inches per
year over a 5-year period. 2

     Water for the various scenario energy conversion facilities in
the Colstrip area will be imported by individual pipelines from the
Yellowstone River as shown in Figure 8-5.   The Yellowstone River is
the most likely source of water because of its proximity, high flow,
and good quality.  However, there has been a 3-year moratorium on
new diversions from the Yellowstone in excess of 20 cubic feet per
second (cfs) (14,000 acre-ft/yr).3  This moratorium, which was to
end in 1977, was put into effect to allow Montana time to clear
up water rights questions raised by a change in procedures.  Since
the Montana Water Use Act of 1973, the state has administered all
surface water and groundwater rights through a permit system.
Montana is now in the process of determining valid appropriations
under the old "right of use" system before approving new rights
            Harris, et al .   Water Requirements for Steam-Electric
Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United
States .   Washington, D.C.:   U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,
1977.

     Differences between water demand of native grasses and aver-
age precipitation.  See U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau
of Land Management.  Resource and Reclamation Evaluation:  Otter
Creek Study Site, EMIRA Report No. 1.  Billings, Mont.:  Bureau
of Land Management, 1975.

     3Montana Revised Codes Annotated § 89-8-105 (Cumulative Sup-
plement 1975) .

                                644
-------
  (0
  0)
  
-------
FIGURE 8-5:
WATER PIPELINES  FOR ENERGY FACILITIES
IN THE COLSTRIP  SCENARIO
                         646
-------
        TABLE 8-16:  WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR RECLAMATION'

MINE
Power Plant
Lurgi
Synthane
Synthoil
Total

ACRES DISTURBED
PER YEAR
340
240
240
250
1,070
MAXIMUM
ACRES UNDER
IRRIGATION
1,720
1,180
1,180
1,250
5,330
WATER
REQUIREMENT
(acre-f t/yr)
1,290
890
890
940
4,010
     acre-ft/yr = acre-feet per year

     aAssuming an irrigation rate of 9 inches per year over a
     5-year period.
that might overallocate Yellowstone River water.  When this situa-
tion has stabilized, a developer will hie able to apply for a new
right.  Although an old right could be transferred, it might not
be recognized or given the same priority under the new system.

B.  Effluents from Energy Facilities

     Table 8-17 lists expected amounts of solid effluents to be
produced by energy facilities in the Colstrip scenario.  Solid ef-
fluents will be produced by Lurgi, Synthane, Synthoil, and the
3,000 MWe power plant.  The Synthoil facility is expected to pro-
duce more than 4,300 tons of total solid effluents per day when
operating at full capacity.  The power plant will produce more than
4,100 tons of solid effluents per day.  Solid wastes from the Lurgi
plant are expected to be slightly less than 2,400 tons per day (tpd),
and Synthane solid waste production is expected to total more than
2,200 tpd.  The Synthoil plant is expected to have the highest rate
of wet solid production (over 2,100 tpd); and the power plant is
expected to produce the most dissolved and dry solids  (60 and 2,222
tpd).  The total daily solid waste production from all facilities
hypothesized in the Colstrip scenario will be slightly less than
13,000 tpd.

     Dissolved solids are present in the ash blowdown stream, the
demineralizer waste stream, and the flue gas desulfurization  (FGD)
                                647
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stream.l  The principal constituents of wastewater which appear
as dissolved solids are calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate, and
chlorine.

     Wet solids from the electric power plant and Lurgi or Syn-
thane gasification facilities are in the form of flue gas sludge,
bottom ash, and cooling wastewater treatment sludge.  Calcium car-
bonate (CaC03)  and calcium sulfate (CaSCK)  are the primary constit-
uents of flue gas sludge.  Bottom ash is the primary constituent
of wet solids produced by a Synthoil facility.  The bottom ash is
primarily made up of oxides of aluminum and silicon.  CaC03 is the
principal constituent of the cooling water treatment waste sludge.
In all cases the amount of cooling water treatment waste is very
small compared to the bottom ash and flue gas sludge.

     Dry solids waste produced by coal conversion processes is
primarily fly ash composed of oxides of aluminum, silicon, and iron.
The water in the effluent stream (Table 8-17) accounts for between
8  (power plant) and 12 (Synthane) percent of the total water re-
quirements of coal conversion facilities (data in Table 8-17 com-
pared to that in Table 8-15).  Dissolved and wet solids are sent
to evaporative holding ponds and later deposited in landfills.
Dry solids are treated with water to prevent dusting and deposited
in a landfill.2

8.3.4  Impacts

     This section describes water impacts which result from the
mines, conversion facilities (a power plant, Lurgi plant, Synthane
plant, and Synthoil plant), and from a scenario which includes con-
struction of all facilities according to the hypothesized scenario
schedule.  The water requirements and impacts associated with ex-
pected population increases are included in the scenario impact
description.
     JNote that all coal conversion processes generate electricity
on-site, thus flue gas cleaning, ash handling, and demineraliza-
tion are required for all.  One exception is the Synthoil process
which uses clean fuel gas for power generation; fuel gas cleaning
is not required for it.  Demineralization is a method of preparing
water for use in boilers; it produces a waste stream composed of
chemicals present in the source water.  The ash blowdown stream is
the water used to remove bottom ash from the boiler.  Bottom ash
removal is done via a wet sluicing system using cooling tower blow-
down water.  Thus, the dissolved solids content of that stream is
composed of chemicals from the ash and cooling water.

     2The environmental problems associated with solid waste dis-
posal in holding ponds and landfills are discussed in Chapter 10.

                                649
-------
A.  Surface Mine Impacts

     The opening of the surface coal mines for the conversion fa-
cilities will cause disturbances of aquifer systems in the Tongue
River Member of the Fort Union Formation.  Since the source of the
coal, the Rosebud seam, is a large aquifer in the Tongue River Mem-
ber, mine dewatering will probably be required in most areas.  This
dewatering may lead to local aquifer depletion and a resultant low-
ering of water levels in nearby wells.  Springs and seeps on hill-
sides may dry up, and there may be a significant loss to the base
flow of Rosebud Creek.  The water from mine dewatering operations
will be pumped to the facilities and used as make-up water for
cooling towers or will be used for mine operations and for revege-
tation of spoil material.  Shallow bedrock aquifers in the coal
and overburden will be lost in the mine area.  Replacing the over-
burden will not necessarily reestablish aquifers because homoge-
nization of the overburden will change its porosity and permeabil-
ity.  If acid and trace element contaminants are present, they
could move laterally and appear as part of the discharge of springs
and seeps, thus contaminating these important sources of water for
wildlife.  Alluvial aquifers along Rosebud Creek may also be con-
taminated by water from the strip mine, either by water recharging
directly from polluted bedrock aquifers or by surface water from
contaminated seeps and springs.  There is a significant possibility
that contaminated groundwater from the mine areas will begin flow-
ing into Armells, Sarpy, and Rosebud Creeks  (see Figure 8-3 for
stream locations).

     The opening of the coal mines will also have some impact on
the local surface water.  Since vegetation will be removed and soil
disturbed, the silt load will be increased in local streams until
runoff can be controlled by ponding and settling.  Until other uses
develop, ponded runoff will be used for dust control and revegeta-
tion, with the excess being evaporated.  Ponding the runoff de-
creases surface water flows which could affect the flow patterns
of intermittent streams in the mine areas.  There may also be fugi-
tive spills of lubricants and fuels either in bulk from a storage
site or from machine maintenance.  These petroleum products will
not readily degrade and will contaminate runoff.

B.  Energy Conversion Facilities Impacts

     Water impacts may be divided into those occurring during con-
struction and operation, and those occurring because of the water
requirements of and the effluents from the facilities.

     Although the construction activities associated with the fa-
cilities are not expected to have an  appreciable impact on any
groundwater system in the scenario area, they will remove vegeta-
tion and disturb the  soil.  Thus, construction activities will af-
fect surface water quality, primarily in the form of sediment load


                                650
-------
increases.  Additionally, the equipment used during construction
will require petroleum storage and maintenance facilities.  Other
areas will be required for storage of materials for the concrete
batch plant and other construction-related activities.  All these
facilities will contaminate runoff.  Runoff control techniques will
be instituted at all the potential contaminant locations.  Runoff
will be gathered in a common pond for settling, reuse, and evapo-
ration.  As the supply of water to this pond is very intermittent,
evaporation may claim most of the water, although some may be used
for dust control at aggregate storage sites.

     Assuming the facilities are high wet cooled, Table 8-15 shows
the energy conversion plants will consume about 26,659 acre-ft/yr
(power plant), 6,283 acre-ft/yr (Lurgi plant), 7,808 acre-ft/yr
(Synthane plant), and 10,296 acre-ft/yr (Synthoil plant).  For per-
spective, the water source, the Yellowstone River at Miles City,
has an average flow of 8,800,000 acre-ft/yr and minimum flow of
3,720,000 acre-ft/yr (Table 8-12).l  Under worst-case conditions,
when a facility is operating at 100 percent load factor on a day
when the river was at low flow, withdrawals would range from 0.14
to 1.2 percent of the river flow depending on the type of facility.

     The disposal sites for effluents from the plants will pose a
water quality hazard for shallow aquifer systems.  Fluids from liq-
uid waste disposal ponds (sanitary effluent, cooling tower blowdown,
etc.)  may infiltrate through leaky or ineffective pond liners and
enter groundwater systems, thus lowering the quality of the water.

C.  Scenario Impacts

     Water impacts resulting from interactions among the hypothe-
sized facilities and their associated mines and water impacts re-
sulting from associated population increases are discussed in this
section.

     Water requirements for direct use by these hypothesized energy
facilities (assuming high wet cooling and operation at the expected
load factor, Table 8-15)  increase from approximately 26,700 acre-
ft/yr in 1990 when the power plant is operating to 50,600 acre-ft/
yr in 2000 when all the facilities are operating.  Additional water,
about 8 percent of the water requirement for the facilities in 2000,
may be required for mine reclamation purposes.

     Assuming that the towns on the Yellowstone River (including
Miles City)  will continue to use surface water for municipal needs,
the projected increases in water supply requirements as a result
     1Minimum flow is 5,135 cfs and is converted to acre-ft/yr only
so that withdrawals by the energy facilities given in acre-ft/yr
can be compared.

                                651
-------
TABLE 8-18:  EXPECTED WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR INCREASED POPULATION3
             (acre-feet per year)
LOCATION
Forsyth
Colstrip
Miles City
Billings
1980
1,120
245
35
56
1990
4,256
420
91
154
2000
12,320
784
322
504
 Above the 1975 base level; based on 125 gallons per capita per
day.

 Based on 1,000 gallons per capita per day (present consumption
during the summer - Montana Water Quality Bureau).

 Only growth caused by energy development included.
of energy development (based on population predictions from Sec-
tion (8.4)  are shown in Table 8-18.l   Rural population growth gen-
erally is not expected because of county zoning and land-use prac-
tices.   The only municipality shown in Table 8-18 that will use
groundwater as a supply source is Colstrip, where a well field will
be developed that will tap aquifers in the Tongue River member.
Since only about 500 gpm will be needed by the year 2000, the well
field should not be extensive.

     Wastewater from the energy facilities (Table 8-17), which will
be impounded in evaporation ponds, will average 2,837 acre-ft/yr by
1990, and 4,623 acre-ft/yr by 2000.  The wastewater generated by
the population increases associated with energy development is
shown in Table 8-19.  Rural populations are assumed to use indi-
vidual, on-site waste facilities (septic tanks and drain fields),
and the urban population will require waste treatment facilities.
Current treatment practices in affected communities are shown in
Table 8-20.

     Based on current treatment facility capacities, new facili-
ties will be required in Colstrip before 1980, in Forsyth around
1990, and in Miles City before 2000.   These facilities must use
the "best practicable" waste -treatment technology to conform to
     1 Increases from secondary industry are not included in obtain-
ing population estimates.
                                652
-------
TABLE 8-19:  EXPECTED WASTEWATER FLOWS FROM INCREASED POPULATION'
LOCATION
Forsyth
Colstrip
Miles City
Billings
1980
0.1
0.175
0.025
0.04
1990
0.38
0.30
0.065
0.11 •
2000
0.1
0.56
0.23
0.36
 Above the 1975 base level, based on 100 gallons per capita per
day.  Rural population is assumed to use septic tanks, so no
wastewater is present.  Only growth caused by energy development
considered.


1983 standards.1  The 1985 goal (zero discharge of pollutants)
could be met by using effluents for industrial process make-up
water of for irrigating local farmland.

(1)  To 1980

     Between the present and 1980, the only activity scheduled is
the beginning of the construction of the 3,000 MWe power plant and
the opening of the associated coal mine.  Therefore, prior to 1980
there will be little land disturbance by mines (and therefore only
minor reductions in the amount of runoff which no longer reaches
streams)  and no water required by the conversion facilities.

     Of the 1,456 acre-ft/yr of water required by the population
increases associated with the Colstrip scenario,  245 acre-ft/yr for
the town of Colstrip will come from the Tongue River Member aqui-
fer.  The remainder will come from the Yellowstone River to sat-
isfy needs in Forsyth, Miles City, and Billings (see Table 8-18).

     The municipal growth at the Colstrip scenario will be re-
stricted to expansion of existing communities, most of which have
municipal sewage treatment facilities.  Septic tanks may pose a
significant hazard to groundwater quality in local Tongue River
Member aquifers.  The projected population increase at Colstrip
for the scenario will increase the magnitude of the hazard to
groundwater quality.

     Miles City, Forsyth, and Billings must increase their waste-
water treatment facility capacities to meet the expected needs.


     1 Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, Pub.
L. 92-500, 86 Stat. 816, and 844 §§ 101, 301; 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251,
1311 (Supp. 1976).
                                653
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-------
As shown in Tables 8-19 and 8-20, wastewater treatment requirements
will exceed capacity at Colstrip.  Facilities must be expanded or
treatment levels must be upgraded to meet the requirements of the
Federal Water Pollution Control Act  (FWPCA)  guidelines.  This com-
bined effect will be felt most acutely within the smaller communi-
ties, and some financial hardship may result.

(2)  To 1990

     Construction of the 3,000 MWe, coal-fired power plant will
continue, and its associated coal mine will be opened during the
1980-1985 period.  The power plant will go on-line in 1985.  In
addition, construction will begin on the Lurgi*high-Btu gasifica-
tion plant and its associated coal mine after 1985 so that this
plant can begin operation by 1990.

     By 1990, the mine for the power plant will have disturbed
1,700 acres of land (Table 8-16)  resulting in runoff impoundment
of about 140 acre-ft/yr.1  Water consumption for the operation of
the power plant  (26,660 acre-ft/yr) will be about 0.3 percent of
the average flow and 0.72 percent of the minimum flow of the
Yellowstone River at Miles City.

     About 4,920 acre-ft/yr of additional water will be required
by population increases caused by the scenario at Colstrip (Table
8-18).  Of this amount, 420 acre-ft/yr will be withdrawn from
groundwater sources in the town of Colstrip.  This quantity of
water, which is equivalent to about 260 gpm, may begin to deplete
the local shallow aquifers.  Several wells will be required, and
local water levels may be lowered.

     This scenario assumes that the 'town of Colstrip will build a
municipal sewage treatment plant between 1985 and 1990.  Until then,
the septic tank and drainfield systems will continue to degrade the
water quality of local shallow aquifers.  The population influx
during the 1980-1990 decade will add considerably to the ground-
water quality problems.  Much of the water taken from local ground-
water supplies will be returned to the shallow aquifers through
the septic tanks, but such recycling may have serious public health
implications.  The natural renovating capacity (primarily filtra-
tion by sands and absorption by clays)  of the Tongue River Member
may be exceeded with increased septic tank use.

     Although the water usage of the municipalities relying on sur-
face water will increase, the amount demanded will still be small
compared to the total flow of the Yellowstone.  Water requirements
for municipalities will increase as more construction workers mi-
grate into the area.  Forsyth will have the greatest increase,
about 4,250 acre-ft/yr above the 1975 level.  Municipalities must


     Assuming one inch of runoff per year.

                                655
-------
also treat an increased wastewater load as shown in Table 8-19.
Forsyth will have the greatest increase and will exceed the capac-
ity of its current facilities.  Because provisions of the FWPCA
restrict pollutant discharge after 1983, the communities affected
by growth have the additional problem of effluent disposal.  Alter-
nate disposal methods, such as selling the effluent to the energy
conversion facilities for use as irrigation water for mine recla-
mation, will be sought.  Therefore, no appreciable impact is likely
in local surface waters.

(3)  To 2000

     The Lurgi high-Btu gasification plant will go into operation
in 1990.  Construction of the Synthane high-Btu gasification plant
and associated coal mine will begin shortly after 1990, and the
plant will begin operating in 1995.  Finally, construction will
begin after 1995 on the Synthoil coal liquefaction plant and its
associated coal mine, and the plant will begin operation in 2000.

     By 2000, a total of 8,700 acres of land will have been dis-
turbed by the coal mines for the facilities  (Table 8-16), reducing
runoff to surface streams (via impoundment) by about 700 acre-ft/
yr.  This reduction is likely to affect the flow patterns of local
streams.  The water requirement for the operation of all the sce-
nario facilities (at the expected load factor and assuming high
wet cooling, see Table 8-15) will total about 0.6 percent of the
average flow and 1.3 percent of the minimum flow of the Yellow-
stone River at Miles City.

     By the year 2000, the town of Colstrip will withdraw about
780 acre-ft/yr  (480 gpm) from local groundwater resources.  After
1990, the town will be using a municipal sewage treatment facility;
thus, none of this water will be returned to shallow aquifers
through septic tank systems.  The result will likely be depletion
of local shallow aquifers as described for the preceding decade.

     A total of 13,930 acre-ft/yr of surface water above the 1975
level will be required by Forsyth, Miles City, and Billings.  This
amount of water should not significantly affect flow in the Yellow-
stone River.  Wastewater treatment plant capacity must be expanded
from the 1975 base level by a factor of 10 for Miles City and
Forsyth, and the capacity at Colstrip must be tripled.  Thus, the
communities will probably have substantial problems in funding and
constructing new treatment plants on an appropriate schedule, and
package treatment will probably be used as a stopgap measure.  Be-
cause pollutants from municipal facilities will not be discharged
into surface streams, there will not be any significant impacts
on local watersheds.
                                656
-------
 (4)  After 2000

     All four coal conversion facilities will continue to operate
after 2000, and their impacts will be much the same as those des-
cribed for earlier decades.

     The mines will continue to have long-range impacts on ground-
water systems after mine operations cease, despite the reclamation
measures that will be undertaken for restoration of surface uses
of the land.  The overburden that is returned to the mine will have
aquifer characteristics quite different from the original, undis-
turbed overburden.

     The evaporative pond dikes which have been maintained during
plant operation will receive no maintenance after shutdown.  These
dikes could lose their protective vegetation, erode, and eventually
be breached.  Subsequently, the materials within the pond site will
erode and enter the surface water system.  The salt concentrations
may be high enough to cause damage to local streams.

8.3.5  Summary of Water Impacts

     Water impacts are caused by (1)  the water requirements of and
effluents from the energy facilities, (2) the water requirements
of and wastewater generated by associated population increases,
and  (3)  the coal mining process itself.

     Assuming the energy facilities hypothesized for the Colstrip
area are high wet cooled, the water requirements in acre-ft/yr are
26,659 for the power plant, 6,283 for the Lurgi plant, 7,808 for
the Synthane plant, and 10,296 for the Synthoil plant.  Operation
of all the facilities could require as much as 50,600 acre-ft/yr
from the Yellowstone River.  The use of intermediate wet cooling
for the facilities operating at the expected load factor could
reduce this amount by 48 percent.  The Yellowstone River, the water
source for the hypothesized energy conversion facilities, has an
average annual flow at Miles City of 8,800,000 acre-ft/yr and min-
imum flow of 3,720,000 acre-ft/yr.  Thus, all facilities operating
at the expected load factor during a low flow period (a worst-case)
would consume only 1.4 percent of the river flow.

     Wastewater from the energy facilities (in acre-ft/yr) average
2,107 from the power plant, 580 from the Lurgi plant, 915 from the
Synthane plant, and 871 from the Synthoil plant.  The objective of
zero discharge of pollutants set forth in the FWPCA1 will necessi-
tate on-site entrapment and disposal of all these effluents.  There-
fore, effluents will be discharged into clay-lined, on-site evapo-
rative holding ponds.  Furthermore, runoff prevention systems will


     federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, Pub.
L. 92-500, 86 Stat. 816, and 844, §§ 101, 301; 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251,
1311 (Supp. 1976).
                                657
-------
be installed to direct runoff to a holding pond or to a water
treatment facility.  These methods protect the quality of surface
water systems (at least for the life of the plants),  but ground-
water quality may be reduced by leakage and leaching  from the dis-
posal ponds and pits.

     Municipal water use in the scenario area will be 13,390 acre-
ft/yr by the year 2000.  If the towns in the area continue to use
surface water, most of the water demand will be met with water
from the Yellowstone River.1  However, surface water  resources are
not expected to be greatly affected by the municipal  water require-
ments.  Increased population will also cause wastewater increases
totalling 1,25 million gallons per day by 2000.  New  sewage treat-
ment plants in several towns, particularly in Colstrip, will be
required.

     The coal mines for the energy facilities will have impacts on
both groundwater and surface water.  Mine dewatering, which will
probably be required in most areas, may lead to local aquifer de-
pletion and a resultant lowering of water levels in nearby wells.
Springs and seeps on hillsides may dry up, and there  may be a sig-
nificant loss to the base flow of Rosebud Creek.  Shallow bedrock
aquifers in the coal and overburden will be lost in the mine area,
and replacing the overburden will not necessarily reestablish aqui-
fers.  Furthermore, contaminants from the mines may contaminate
springs, seeps, alluvial aquifers, and creeks in the  area.

     By 2000, nearly 9,000 acres of land will have been disturbed
by the coal mines.  Silt loading in local streams will occur until
runoff is controlled by ponding.  Ponding the runoff  will decrease
surface water flow and alter flow patterns in local,  intermittent
streams.

8.4  SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS

8.4.1  Introduction

     The primary area of social and economic effects  in the
Colstrip scenario will be Rosebud County, Montana and, to a lesser
extent, the cities of Billings and Miles City.  Most  of the effects
anticipated will result either directly or indirectly from popula-
tion changes.

8.4.2  Existing Conditions

     Rosebud County covers 5,037 square miles and had a 1975 popu-
lation of approximately 8,600 people.  The resulting  population
density of 1.69 persons per square miles is low in comparison with
the 1970 Montana average of 4.77 persons per square mile.  The

     Colstrip will be the only scenario municipality using ground
water.

                                658
-------
county's population has increased since 1970 after a period of
relative stability with most of the growth occurring in Colstrip
and Forsyth (see Table 8-21).  In 1970, the Northern Cheyenne In-
dian Reservation in the southern portion of Rosebud County ac-
counted for 1,700 people, or about 28 percent of the county's
population.

     Agriculture dominates the Rosebud County economy, accounting
for 33 percent of all earned income in 1972  (the average for Montana
was 19.7 percent).  The average size ranch or farm was 2,665 acres
in 1974.  The proportion of farm income from ranching  (livestock
income) is higher than the state average:  75.9 percent compared
to 63.6 percent.  (The distribution of employment by industry in
1970 is shown in Table 8-22.)  However, recent development related
to power plant construction has altered this pattern by adding sub-
stantially to the construction employment proportion.

     As shown in Figure  8-6, the county's road network is more de-
veloped in an east-west  direction, focusing  on Billings 100 miles
to the west and Miles City to the east.  Both the Burlington North-
ern  (formerly Northern Pacific) and the Chicago, Milwaukee, St.
Paul,  and Pacific Railroads  cross the  county from east to west,
running through Forsyth.  A  spur line  runs south through Colstrip.

     Rosebud County is governed by a board of three elected county
commissioners.  There is currently no county charter, but one is
being developed by a study commission elected in 1975.  A county
planning board was created in January 1974, and a master plan was
to be completed by late  1976.  Law enforcement consists of one
sheriff with deputies in Forsyth (the  county seat), Colstrip,
Ashland, and Birney.

     Colstrip is an unincorporated community owned by Western En-
ergy Company, a subsidiary of Montana Power Company.1  Most basic
municipal services, such as streets, water, and sewer facilities,
have been provided by the company.2  The planning board has taken
an active role to assure that the town of Colstrip meets all county
zoning and building requirements.  A town council has been formed
to provide resident input to Western Energy Company planners.  There
were no full-time physicians or dentists in Colstrip in 1975; since
then, a clinic facility has been opened with a full-time staff.

     Forsyth, the county seat and only incorporated town in Rose-
bud County, is governed by a mayor and four councilmen.  There is


     Colstrip has been  a company-owned town since it was founded
by Northern Pacific Railroad in 1923.  It was sold to Montana Power
in 1959.

     2Current sewage treatment facilities consist of septic tanks
and drainage systems.

                                659
-------
FIGURE 8-6:
TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES  IN THE
ROSEBUD COUNTY AREA
                      660
-------
        TABLE  8-21:   POPULATION  OF  ROSEBUD  COUNTY,  COLSTRIP
                     AND  FORSYTH, 1940-19753
YEAR
1975b
1974
1973
1970
1960
1950
1940
ROSEBUD COUNTY
8,500

6,959
6,032
6,187
6,570
6,477
COLSTRIP
3,000
2,650
1,800
422
439
553

FORSYTH
2,500
2,950
2,700
1,873
2,032
1,906
1,696
        aU.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
        County and City Data Book;  A Statistical Abstract
        Supplement.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing
        Office, 1972; University of Montana, Institute for
        Social Science Research.  A Comparative Case Study
        of the Impact of Coal Development on the Way of Life
        of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and
        Northeastern Wyoming.  Missoula, Mont.:  Institute
        for Social Science Research, 1974; Westinghouse Elec-
        tric Corporation, Environmental Systems Department.
        Colstrip Generation and Transmission Project:  Appli-
        cant's Environmental Analysis.  Pittsburgh, Pa.:
        Westinghouse Electric Corporation, 1973; Mountain
        Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Im-
        pacts of Natural Resource Development Committee.
        Socioeconomic Impacts and Federal Assistance in En-
        ergy Development Impacted Communities in Region VIII.
        Denver, Colo.:  Mountain Plains Federal Regional
        Council, 1975.

         Estimated.
no planning department, and most of the planning is done by the
city through the use of consultants.  Forsyth has both city-owned
and operated water and sewage treatment systems, and expansion of
the water system is now underway.

8.4.3  Factors Producing Impacts

     Two factors associated with energy facilities dominate as the
cause of social and economic impacts:  manpower requirements and
taxes levied on the energy facilities.   Tax rates are tied to cap-
ital costs, and/or the value of coal extracted, and/or the value
of energy produced.  Taxes which apply to the Colstrip scenario
facilities (power plant, Lurgi and Synthane gasification plants,
and Synthoil liquefaction plant)  and their associated mines are
                                661
-------
        TABLE 8-22:
                EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION IN ROSEBUD
                COUNTY,  1970
INDUSTRY
Total Civilian Labor Force
Total Employed
Agriculture
Contract Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale and Retail
Trade
Services
Education
Government
Other
Total Unemployed (1970) a
NUMBER
2,346
2,238
497
116
175

316
81
257
553
243
108
PERCENTAGE
100
95.4
22.2
5.2
7.8

14.1
3.6
11.5
24.7
10.9
4.6
              U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
              County and City Data Book;  A Statistical Ab-
Source:
Census.	
stract Supplement.  Washington, D.C.:
ing Office, 1972, p. 294.
                                            Government Print-
      June 1978 unemployment is 6.4 percent (Montana State
     Government Office of Research Analysis, 1978).
property tax, a severance tax, and royalty payments on federally
owned coal.

     The manpower requirements for each scenario facility and its
associated surface coal mine are given in Tables 8-23 to 8-26.
For the mines, the manpower requirement for operation exceeds the
peak construction manpower requirement by two times.  However, the
reverse is true for the conversion facilities; the peak construc-
tion manpower requirement exceeds the operation requirement by 1.7
(Synthoil plant)  to 7.0 times (Lurgi and Synthane plants).  The
peak total manpower requirements for each mine-conversion facility
increases from the first year when construction begins, peaks, and
then declines as construction activity ceases.  The peak total man-
power requirement for the Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil mine-plant
combination is about 5,000 and for the power plant, about 3,000.
The fraction Of the peak total manpower requirement needed for
operation of the mine and plant combination ranges from 0.2 for the
Lurgi and Synthane plants to 0.6 for the Synthoil plant.  The to-
tal manpower required for operation of the Synthoil facility  and
its associated mine is more than three times that for each of the
other plant-mine combinations.
                                662
-------
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     A property tax which is tied to capital costs of the facili-
ties and a severance tax and royalty payments which are tied to the
value of coal generate revenue for the state and local governments.
The capital costs of the conversion facilities and mines hypothe-
sized for the Colstrip scenario are given in Table 8-27.  Costs
range (in millions of 1975 dollars) from about 1,150  (mine-gasifi-
cation plant facility)  to 2,170 (mine-Synthoil plant  facility).
The property tax, most of which goes to local governments, is lev-
ied on the cash value of the facility (approximately  the total cap-
ital cost given in Table 8-27) after construction of  the facility
is completed, but no property tax is collected when a facility is
located on an Indian reservation.   The property tax in Rosebud
County, Montana is about 1.19 percent.1  Currently, there is no
sales tax, but a severance tax of 30.5 percent is levied on the
coal extracted.  Revenue obtained from the severance  tax is divided
between the state government and local government (52.3 and 47.7
respectively).  State and local government also receive 50 percent
of royalty payments which are about 12.5 percent of the value of
federally owned coal.2  However, all royalties are retained by
Indian tribes when the coal is on Indian reservations.

8.4.4  Impacts

     The nature and extent of the social and economic impacts
caused by this factor depend on the size and character of the com-
munity or communities in which workers and their families live, on
the state and local tax structure, and on many other  social and
economic factors.  A scenario, which calls for the development of
power, Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil facilities according to a
specified time schedule (see Table 8-1), is used here as a vehicle
through which the nature and extent of the impacts are explored.
The discussion relates each impact type to the hypothetical sce-
nario and includes population impacts, housing and school impacts,
economic impacts, fiscal impacts,  social and cultural impacts, and
political and governmental impacts.

A.  Population Impacts

     The first major impact on the Rosebud County area from the
scenario will be from construction workers associated with the
power plant complex beginning in 1977 (Table 8-28).   Construction
activity in the scenario is scheduled to end in 2000, although
     JThis is the effective, average property tax rate.  The actual
rate is computed using a number of assessment ratios, since certain
kinds of equipment (e.g., pollution control equipment) are taxed at
different rates or may be exempt.
              i
     2This is the federal government's target rate; actual rates
will vary from mine to mine.

                                667
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        TABLE  8-28:
CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION EMPLOYMENT
FOR COLSTRIP SCENARIO, 1975-2000
(person years)
YEAR
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
CONSTRUCTION


40
420
900
1,350
2,280
2,750
2,200
890
70
820
2,890
4,890
2,830
70
820
2,890
4,920
3,090
1,010
2,070
2,380
1,730
640
0
OPERATION


0
0
0
0
0
110
380
490
990
990
990
1,260
1,260
2,130
2,130
2,130
2,400
2,400
3,270
3,270
3,270
3,540
4,180
5,100
TOTAL


40
420
900
1,350
2,280
2,860
2,580
1,380
1,060
1,810
3,880
6,150
4,090
2,200
2,950
5,020
7,320
5,490
4,280
5,340
5,650
5,270
4,820
5,100
              Source:   Carasso,  M.,  et  al.   The  Energy
              Supply Planning  Model,  2  vols.   San
              Francisco,  Calif.:   Bechtel  Corporation,
              1975.
employment in construction is minimal in 1985 and 1990.*  The pop-
ulation estimates explicitly take into account the major market
centers of Eastern Montana, Billings, and Miles City, as well as
settlements in Rosebud County (Figure 8-7).


     Population changes were estimated by means of an,economic
base model, the employment data from Table 8-28, and the multi-
pliers in Tables 8-29 and 8-30.
                                669
-------
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                                                         Rosebud
                                                         County
                                                        Forsyth

                                                        Colstrip



                                                        Others

                                                        Ashland
     1975      1980      1985      1990     1995      2000
        FIGURE 8-7:
POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR ROSEBUD
COUNTY, 1975-2000
                             670
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-------
        TABLE 8-30:
ASSUMED POPULATION ATTRACTION OR CAPTURE
RATES USED TO ALLOCATE POPULATION WITHIN
ROSEBUD COUNTY

Energy Population
1975-1985
1986-1990
1991-2000
Service Population
1975-1985
1986-1990
1991-2000
FORSYTE
.40
.20
.30
.75
.40
.40
COLSTRIP
.40
.20
.30
.15
.20
.20
ASHLAND
.10
.40
.20
.10
.30
.20
OTHER
.10
.20
.20

.10
.20
     The projected population of Rosebud County is expected to
increase more than three-fold to over 27,000 by 2000 (Table 8-31) .1
The peak population occurs in 1993 in all parts of the county, with
a slightly smaller short-term peak in 1988.  Ashland will receive
the most severe impact because of its current small size; its 1988
peak is nearly 10 times its present size of 500.  Forsyth and
Colstrip remain over 5,000 population after 1986 with occasional
peaks during construction activity.   The projections reported here
effectively consider Colstrip as more similar to other towns.
However, its past and present ownership by Western Energy Company
could preclude additional population from settling there.  If
Colstrip is incorporated by the mid-1980's, the populations in
Table 8-31 are more realistic.

     Outside Rosebud County,  Miles City and Billings will receive
a noticeable amount of service industry growth stemming from


     Because the Northern Cheyenne Reservation is not the site of
coal development in this scenario, estimates of Indian employment
are difficult to make.  About 200-300 Indians may be directly em-
ployed, and out-migration is  likely to be slowed.  The Northern
Cheyenne population is included in the "other" category in Table
8-31.
                                672
-------
  TABLE  8-31:  POPULATION  ESTIMATES  FOR  ROSEBUD  COUNTY,  1975-2000'
YEAR
1975
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
ROSEBUD
COUNTY
8,600
11,620
13,350
14,850
14,700
12,740
12,690
14,260
18,430
23.200
19,680
17,160
18,710
22,860
27,660
24,500
23,350
25,540
26,270
25,910
25,770
27,170
FORSYTH
2,500
3,820
4,690
5,290
5,270
4,440
4,510
4,880
5,870
7.010
6,260
5,830
6,320
7,640
9,170
8,200
7,900
8,600
8,840
8,750
8,750
9,240
COLSTRIP
3,000
4,080
4,770
5,230
5,130
4,380
4,280
4,610
5,460
6,430
5,740
5,250
5,690
6,870
8,220
7,310
6,910
7,530
7,740
7,630
7,550
7,910
ASHLAND
500
790
980
1,100
1,090
890
880
1,450
3,020
4,810
3,400
2,340
2,640
3,470
4,420
3,790
3,550
3,990
4,130
4,050
4,020
4,350
OTHERb
2,600
2,930
3,090
3,230
3,210
3,030
3,020
3,320
4,080
4,950
4,280
3,740
4,060
4,880
5,850
5,200
4,990
5,420
5,560
5,480
5,450
5,670
        Given  the  development  in  this  scenario,  the  pop-
       ulation increases  are within  a  -25  percent  range
       of  expected conditions.  For  example,  Rosebud
       County's  population  in  2000 should  be  between
       22,500  and  31,800.

        Other  includes  a  rural  population  of  about 1,800
       throughout  the period,  as  well  as townsites such
       as  Rosebud,  Lame Deer,  and Birney.


wholesale and retail sales to Rosebud County residents.1  Miles
City, east of Forsyth,  should grow in population by 5,800, or 62
     1 University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research.
A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the
Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and"
Northeastern Wyoming'.  Missoula, Mont. :  University of Montana,
Institute for Social Science Research, 1974, pp. 61-69; and Polzin,
Paul E.  Water Use and Coal Development in Eastern Montana.
Bozeman, Mont.:Montana State University,Joint Water Resources
Research Center, 1974.

                                673
-------
percent, by the year 2000.  Expected growth in the Billings area
of 17,800 is only about 27 percent of its current population.  The
bulk of the overall population increase from the scenario is ex-
pected to take place within Rosebud County, where nearly all of
the cyclincal impacts occur.l

     Age-sex breakdowns of the projected population of Rosebud
County help to indicate the housing and educational needs of the
area.  From the county's 1970  age-sex distributions, new immi-
grants were assumed to fall into categories derived from studies
of energy-impacted communities.2  The resulting age-sex distribu-
tion (Table 8-32)  shows particular increases in the 25-34 age
groups and a high proportion of school-age children through 1985.
The disparity between males and females should diminish through-
out the energy development period.

B.  Housing and School Impacts

     Housing demand and school enrollment can be estimated by em-
ploying the information in Tables 8-31 and 8-32 and by assuming
that the 6-13 age group is elementary school enrollment and the
14-16 age group comprises secondary school enrollment (Table 8-33,
Figure 8-8).  The demand for housing is twice the 1975 level by
the mid-1980's, then doubles again during the peak construction
activity around 1993 (Table 8-33).  At least 600 extra homes would
be needed for peak population  before the year 2000.

     In accordance with the experience of other energy-impacted
areas, much of the housing for development workers will be pro-
vided by mobile homes.   About  39 percent of Rosebud County's hous-
ing in 1974 was made up of mobile homes, up from about 9.5 percent
in 1970.3  More than 50 percent of the newcomers will be forced to
live in mobile homes, with the percentage being higher at Colstrip
than at Forsyth. "*   These trends were begun in connection with

     *When construction employment does not carry over from year
to year, the employees, their  families, and one-half of the asso-
ciated service population is assumed to leave the area.   Given the
large amount of energy  construction activity which might occur in
the West,  this assumption is as reasonable as its alternatives.

     2Mountain West Research.   Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report.  Washington, B.C.:  Old West Regional Commission,1976,
pp. 33-38.

     3U.S.,  Department  of Agriculture, Committee for Rural Develop-
ment.  1975  Situation Statement;  Rosebud-Treasure Counties.  For-
syth, Mont.:  Department of Agriculture, 1975,  pp. 65-74.

     ^Mountain West Research.   Construction Worker Profile, Com-
munity Report;  Forsyth and Colstrip, Montana.Washington, D.C.:
Old West Regional  Commission,1976.

                                674
-------
     TABLE  8-32:
PROJECTED AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION FOR ROSEBUD
COUNTY, 1975-2000
CATEGORY
Females
65 and over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13
0-5
Total
Males
65 and over
55-64
35-54
25-34
20-24
17-19
14-16
6-13
0-5
Total
1975

.051
.039
.102
.057
.035
.025
.029
.092
.064
.494

.050
.043
.113
.059
.027
.020
.038
.095
.060
.516
1980

.037
.035
.102
.090
.043
.027
.023
.072
.051
.480

.036
.041
.118
.104
.042
.026
.029
.074
.049
.520
1985

.033
.031
.098
.113
.042
.027
.023
.075
.055
.496

.033
.033
.105
.115
.037
.024
.029
.076
.052
.504
1990

.024
.026
.095
.143
.045
.028
.020
.066
.050
.498

.023
.028
.100
.144
.042
.026
.024
.067
.049
.502
1995

.018
.024
.094
.158
.048
.029
.018
.059
.046
.494

.017
.026
.100
.163
.047
.029
.020
.059
.045
.506
2000

.016
.022
.094
.172
.048
.030
.017
.056
.045
.499

.015
.027
.096
.172
.047
.028
.019
.057
.044
.501
       Source:   Table  8-31  and  data  adapted  from Mountain
       West  Research.   Construction  Worker Profile,  Final
       Report.   Washington,D.C.:Old West  Regional Com-
       mission,  1976,  pp. 33-38.
construction activity on Colstrip power plant Units 1 and 2, and
would continue in the scenario development here.  Any single- and
multifamily units are likely to be located primarily at town sites
within the county.  Since only Forsyth and Colstrip currently pro-
vide municipal water service, development in the Ashland vicinity
must rely on septic tanks.

     School enrollment impacts will be relatively minor through
1983, with a 43 percent elementary increase and a 49 percent sec-
ondary increase over 1975 levels (Table 8-33).  From 1983 to 1993,
                                675
-------
      TABLE  8-33:
ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL
ENROLLMENT IN ROSEBUD COUNTY, 1975-2000
YEAR
1975
1980
1983
1988
1993
1995
2000
HOUSEHOLDS3
2,510
3,960
4,470
7,330
8,900
7,680
8,300
ELEMENTARYb
1,560
1,700
2,220
3,090
3,480
2,760
3,070
SECONDARY0
510
600
760
1,020
1,130
890
980
            Estimated  from'number  of males  aged  22  and
           over,  representing  an aggregate  of  single-
           person households and families.   Estimates
           should be seen as medians in  a 25-percent
           error  range.

            Ages  6-13, resulting in somewhat low estimates;
           the'upper end of the range  should be  20-25 per-
           cent above  these figures.

            Ages  14-16, resulting  in somewhat  low estimates;
           see  "b"  above.
enrollments will nearly double at both school levels.  The enroll-
ments peak in 1993, and the 2000 enrollments are very close to
the 1988 levels.  This suggests that temporary facilities could
accommodate the 1990's construction bulge at much less expense
than permanent structures.  About 200 new classrooms will be needed
for the 1993 peak, which is about 25 more than will be needed for
the 2000 enrollment (Table 8-34).  Capital expenditures for new
schools should be below $6.5 million, especially if modular-type
classrooms are used for peak enrollments; annual operating expen-
ditures should double  (in constant dollars)  by 1993. l  The distri-
bution of these needs within the county is suggested by the pop-
ulation distribution in Table 8-31.


     1 These estimates may be compared with U.S., Department of the
Interior, Bureau of Reclamation and Center for Interdisciplinary
Studies.  Anticipated Effects of Major Coal Development on Public
Services, Costs, and Revenues in Six Selected Counties.  Denver,
Colo.:  Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1974 , pp. 230-52.
                                676
-------
    10
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     8-
6 -
4-
                                                        Households
                                                        Elementary
                                                         Secondary
     1975
          1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
  FIGURE  8-8:   PROJECTED NUMBER  OF HOUSEHOLDS, ELEMENTARY AND

                SECONDARY SCHOOL  CHILDREN IN ROSEBUD COUNTY,

                1975-2000
                                677
-------
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-------
C.  Economic Impacts

     Rosebud County's economy currently is dominated by agriculture,
especially ranching, which accounted for 33 percent of all 1972
earnings.   Coal mining and conversion activities will undoubtedly
shift the major portion of income to the extraction and utilities
sectors, although most of the land will remain agricultural.  Local
service and government employment will also expand, especially at
Forsyth, the county seat.  Based on new employment opportunities
in Rosebud County, the overall income distribution will change con-
siderably over the course of the scenario  (Table 8-35; Figure 8-9).
Largely because of the higher paying jobs in energy industries,
the $15,000-20,000 category should expand considerably.  However,
both the distribution and the median income are strongly influ-
enced by construction activity, as e-videnced by the up-and-down
effect during the 1980-1990 period.  In addition, short-term in-
flation will reduce purchasing power at times, a fact disguised by
the constant dollar computation.

     The scenario energy developments will result in local business
increases similar to but substantially greater than the increases
resulting from the recent construction of Colstrip Units 1 and 2.
However, Billings and Miles City should receive much of the whole-
sale and retail expansion from Rosebud County population growth2
(Table 8-36, Figure 8-10).  Since Montana has no sales taxes, the
economic benefits to these market centers will be primarily indi-
rect, coming in the form of increased employment and new businesses.
     ^.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
"Local Area Personal Income."  Survey of Current Business, Vol. 54
(May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75.

     2University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research.
A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the
Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and
Northeastern Wyoming.Missoula,Mont.:University of Montana,
Institute for Social Science Research, 1974, p. 69; Johnson,
Maxine C., and Randle V. White.  Colstrip, Montana;  The Fiscal
Effects of Recent Coal Development and an Evaluation of the Com-
munity's  Ability  to Handle Further Expansion.Washington, B.C.:
U.S.,Department of the Interior,Office of Minerals Policy Devel-
opment, 1975, p. 56; and Polzin, Paul E.  Water Use and Coal Devel-
opment in Eastern Montana.  Bozeman, Mont.!Montana State Univer-
sity, Joint Water Resources Research Center, 1974.

                                679
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                 1975  1980   1985   1990    1995   2000
  FIGURE 8-9:
PROJECTED ANNUAL  INCOME  DISTRIBUTION

FOR ROSEBUD COUNTY,  1975-2000
                           681
-------
                                                 Billings
                                                 Miles City
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
  FIGURE 8-10:
       POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR BILLINGS
       AND MILES CITY, 1975-2000
                         682
-------
                TABLE  8-36:
PROJECTED POPULATION
FOR BILLINGS AREA AND
MILES CITY, 1975-2000
YEAR
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000'
BILLINGS
75,000
78,400
82,000
86,400
89,800
92,800
MILES CITY
9,200
9,900
10,700
12,200
13,800
15,000
     Rosebud County finances have been studied extensively,1 and
an analysis specific to this scenario follows in the section on
fiscal impacts.  The Forsyth water and sewage treatment facilities
are currently used to capacity  (only primary sewage treatment is
available), and an expansion of the system is being studied.2  As
is common for small communities, the expenditure for such facili-
ties is the largest single category of capital requirements  (Table
8-37).  The major period of expenditure need in Forsyth occurs
after 1985, and especially in the early 1990's.  Ashland, which
currently has no water system, will require about $8 million to
meet demands in the 1988-1993 period.  However, temporary facili-
ties might be used at some savings.

     To meet projected needs, municipal operating expenditures in
Forsyth and Ashland must increase five-fold by 2000, the larger in-
creases occurring in the late 1980's and early 1990's  (Table 8-38),
     ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation and
Center for Interdisciplinary Studies.  Anticipated Effects of Major
Coal Development on Public Services, Costs, and Revenues in Six"
Selected Counties.Denver,Colo.:Northern Great Plains Resources
Program, 1974; and Johnson, Maxine C., and Randle V. White.
Colstrip, Montana;  The Fiscal Effects of Recent Coal Development
and an Evaluation of the Community's Ability to Handle Further
Expansion.Washington,D.C.:U.S.,Department of the Interior,
Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975.

     2Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Im-
pacts of Natural Resource Development Committee.  Socioeconomic
Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted Com-
munities in Region VIII.  Denver, Colo.:  Mountain Plains Federal
Regional Council,1975; and U.S., Department of Agriculture, Com-
mittee for Rural Development.  1975 Situation Statement:  Rosebud-
Treasure Counties.  Forsyth, Mont.:Department of Agriculture,
1975, p. 84.

                                683
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-------
           TABLE  8-38:
                        PROJECTED OPERATING EXPENDITURES
                        OF FORSYTH AND ASHLAND,  1980-2000
                        (in dollars above 1975 level)
YEAR
1980
1983
1988
1993
1995
2000
1974 Budget
FORSYTH
458,000
632,000
841,000
1,100,000
948,000
1,109,000
214,353
ASHLAND
95,000
131,000
577,000
530,000
426,000
522,000
Unknown
      Based on  a  figure  of $120  per capita (1975 dollars)
     broken down  as  follows:   streets and roads (25 percent),
     health and hospitals  (14  percent),  police (7 percent),
     fire  protection (12 percent),  parks and recreation (6
     percent),  libraries (4 percent), administration (10 per-
     cent) , sanitation and sewage  (10 percent), and other (12
     percent).  See  THK  Associates,  Inc.  Impact Analysis and
     Development  Patterns  Related  to an  Oil Shale Industry:
     Regional Development  and  Land Use Study.   Denver,  Colo.:
     THK Associates,  1974,  p.  30~I   All figures from that source
     are inflated to 1975  dollars.   These figures will  be high
     estimates  for Forsyth because some  of these services are
     provided by  county  funds.

      Not  known.   Ashland  is an  unincorporated community.
The provision of necessary services for construction-related pop-
ulations will be a major problem because property taxes will not
provide revenue until the construction is completed.  This has
been the case in Rosebud County recently.1

     The large revenue benefits from energy development discussed
in other studies2 have only begun to be felt in the towns; they
     ^.S., Department of Agriculture, Committee for Rural Develop-
ment.  1975 Situation Statement:  Rosebud-Treasure Counties.
Forsyth") Mont. :   Department of Agriculture, 1975 ,
                                                     63 .
     2Johnson, Maxine C. , and Randle V. White.  Colstrip, Montana;
The Fiscal Effects of Recent Coal Development and an Evaluation of
the Community's Ability to Handle Further Expansion.  Washington,
D.C. :   U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Minerals Policy
Development, 1975.
                                685
-------
may only partially compensate local municipalities which are forced
to absorb large population increases but do not include the energy
facilities within their area of taxation.  This is likely to be the
case for Forsyth, Ashland, and other Rosebud County towns, where
newcomers employed in energy development must live.1  What little
land ranchers and other landowners make available for housing will
continue to escalate in price, and general inflation for goods and
services will be felt.  These problems will be worse during inten-
sive construction periods when greater demands will be placed on
local markets.2

D.  Fiscal Impacts

     In this section, the tax rates currently in effect in Rosebud
County are applied to project incremental revenues likely to arise
from energy development.  Some taxes, such as severance taxes, ap-
ply directly to the energy developments; others, such as personal
income taxes, derive indirectly.  Some taxes are local, some are
state, and some are collected by the state for local distribution.

(1)  Coal Mines License Tax3

     This excise tax will probably capture more revenue from energy
development than any other tax.  The rate will depend on heat con-
tent and contract price, but it will generally be 30 percent of sales
price at the mine.1*  The Resource Indemnity Trust Tax is also based
on the value of minerals extracted, in this case at a 0.5 percent
rate.5  Receipts are placed in a trust which will accumulate to

     *If Colstrip remains a company town, then the company could
directly provide many facilities from internal funds, without
having to go through the tax system.  See Section 8.4.8 below.

     2A description of recent experience in the area is found in
the University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research.
A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the
Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and
Northeastern Wyoming.Missoula,Mont.:University of Montana,
Institute for Social Science Research, 1974.

     3Montana Revised Codes Annotated, Title 84, Chapter 13 (Cumu-
lative Supplement 1976); Johnson, Maxine C., and Randle V. White.
Colstrip, Montana;  The Fiscal Effects of Recent Coal Development
and an Evaluation of the Community's Ability to Handle Further Ex-
pansion^Washington,D.C.:U.S. ,Department of theInterior,
Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975, pp. 43-46.

     ^For heat content greater than 7,000 Btu's per pound and
prices greater than $1.40 per ton.

     5Montana Revised Codes Annotated, Title 84, Chapter 70 (Cumu-
lative Supplement 1976).

                                686
-------
         TABLE  8-39:
SEVERANCE TAX REVENUES FROM COLSTRIP
SCENARIO ENERGY DEVELOPMENT3
(millions of 1975 dollars)
YEAR
1978
1980
1983
1985
1988
1990
1995
2000
GROSS RECEIPTS
0
0
80
171
239
292
438
652
TAX REVENUES
0
0
24.4
52.2
72.9
89.1
133.6
198.9
                The  Coal  Mines  License  Tax accounts
               for 98.4 percent of  the  tax revenues
               in the  table,  at 30  percent of  the
               mine  revenues.   The  remainder is  the
               Resource Indemnity Trust Tax, at  0.5
               percent of mine  revenues.
$100 million with certain restrictions.  This scenario simply cred-
its the funds to the state legislature's discretion.

     Projected prices for western coal indicate a rise from $9.52
per ton in 1983 to $13.94 by 2001 (all figures in 1975 currency).1
The Colstrip scenario calls for new coal production to reach 47
million tons per year by 2000.  Multiplying these quantities to-
gether and then by 30.5 percent, annual mine and tax revenues are
projected (Table 8-39) .

(2)  Property Taxes

     Several forms of property are taxed by a host of governmental
units.  This analysis concentrates on the energy facilities, asso-
ciated municipal construction, and "gross proceeds" of mines.   It
is assumed that energy facilities in the scenario will be taxed
during construction in proportion to the resources invested as of
each date.  The actual value of facilities subject to property tax
would thus grow continuously (Table 8-40) .  It can be seen in the
table that the energy developments,  rather than the resulting res-
idential and commercial growth, will dominate the tax assessment
rolls.
               Edward, et al .   A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study, Economics, Final Report, 2 vols.  Menlo Park, Calif.:
Stanford Research Institute, 1976.
                                687
-------
             TABLE  8-40:
PROJECTED PROPERTY VALUATION
IN ROSEBUD COUNTY
(millions of 1975 dollars)
YEAR
1978
1980
1983
1985
1988
1990
1995
2000
FACILITIES
55
276
998
1,135
1,831
2,051
3,605
4,862
MINERALS
0
0
80
171
239
292
438
642
RESIDENTIAL
AND COMMERCIAL3
4
11
23
15
54
31
79
96
           Based on  $3,800 per  capita  and population
           growth in  Rosebud County.  See Polzin, Paul E.
           Water Use  and Coal Development in Eastern
           Montana.   Bozeman, Mont.:  Montana State Uni-
           ver'sity, Joint Water  Resources Research Center,
           1974, p. 142.
     Taxable values are derived from these actual values by a ser-
ies of statutorially defined ratios.  Most property receives a
multiplier of 0.12, so that the recent mill levy of 94.42 is equiv-
alent to a rate of 1.133 percent of full market value.1  Applying
the tax rates to the taxable values, and using the current formulas
for apportionment, likely property tax receipts are summarized in
Table 8-41.

     These revenues far exceed previous annual receipts in Rosebud
County.  At the current time (after some energy-related development
has already been felt), the county's total of nonutility property
has a taxable value of $15.3 million.   By contrast, energy facili-
ties will grow to a taxable value of $584 million by 2000, and
gross proceeds will reach $117 million.  Clearly, these facilities


     Pollution control equipment has a multiplier of 0.028, and
gross proceeds from strip mining have a multiplier of 18.  We do
not make separate provisions for control equipment in these esti-
mates, however.  See Johnson, Maxine C., and Randle V. White.
Colstrip, Montana:  The Fiscal Effects of Recent Coal Development
and an Evaluation of the Community's Ability to Handle Further
Expansion.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Department of the Interior,
Office of Minerals Policy Development, 1975.
                                688
-------
  TABLE  8-41:   PROJECTED  PROPERTY  TAX RECEIPTS  IN ROSEBUD COUNTY
               (millions  of  1975 dollars)
CATEGORY
State
County General
Purposes
County for
Schools
School
District 19
Total Levy
1978
0
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.6
1980
0.2
0.8
1.9
0.7
3.6
1983
0.8
3.3
6.3
2.5
12.9
1985
0.9
4.1
7.9
3.1
16.0
1988
1.5
6.5
12.6
4.9
25.5
1990
1.7
7.4
14.4
5.6
29.1
1995
2.9
12.5
24.3
9.5
49.2
2000
3.9
16.6
32.3
12.6
65.4
will become the mainstay of local public finances, especially for
the school district which depends almost entirely on property taxes
A comparison with Table 8-34 shows that the school districts in
Rosebud County can enjoy substantial surpluses if current tax rates
are maintained.

     The valuation of facilities will probably take on political
overtones, considering its crucial role in determining local bud-
gets.  The tax assessment process, conducted at the state level,
may enjoy some insulation from local political pressures, but these
facilities are so capital-intensive as to have a noticeable impact
even on the state's tax rolls.

     Also, there is a distinct possibility that rates may be re-
duced, especially those of the property tax and coal mines sever-
ance tax.  Otherwise (if no major spending programs were intro-
duced) , large surpluses would build up in state and county trea-
suries.  Moreover, the 30 percent rate of the license tax far ex-
ceeds rates in neighboring states (about 6 percent in North Dakota
and 3.5 percent in Wyoming).  Thus,  this high rate might eventually
cause a loss of some development to other states.

(3)   State Income Tax1

     The state income tax in Montana is a graduated tax and there-
fore depends on the income distribution (Table 8-35; Figure 8-9).
Including $3,600 in exemptions and deductions for a family of four,
the average tax collected per household will be in the range of
          Montana Revised Codes Annotated, Title 84, Chapter 49
(1947) .
                                689
-------
       TABLE 8-42:
NEW STATE INCOME TAX RECEIPTS FROM ENERGY
DEVELOPMENT
(millions of 1975 dollars)
YEAR
1978
1980
1983
1985
1988
1990
1995
2000
NEW HOUSEHOLDS
IN ROSEBUD COUNTY
425
1,230
1,955
1,305
5,460
3,090
7,680
9,660
TOTAL NEW
PERSONAL INCOME
5.7
16.6
23.0
15.4
71.8
40.6
113.5
141.0
NEW TAX
RECEIPTS3
0.4
1.1
1.5
1.0
4.7
2.6
7.4
9.2
        At  6.5  percent  of  new personal  income.
6.5-6.6 percent of household income.  Taking into account the in-
come distribution in Table 8-35, the total new income tax revenue
is shown in Table 8-42.

(4)   Distribution

     The state receives all funds generated by electrical producers'
and income taxes, and a portion of the mill levy, as detailed pre-
viously (Table 8-41).  The county government will receive new funds
from the coal tax and the mill levy.  All new funds for schools
will come from mill levies (by the county and by the districts).
Further, the Coal Mines License Tax and the Resource Indemnity
Trust Tax are distributed as follows beginning in 1979:  41 percent
goes to the state general fund; 34.5 percent goes to local impact
and education trust funds (of which 3/7 may be disbursed in grants);
21.1 percent goes to state-earmarked purposes (public schools
equalization receives 46.5 percent of that portion, park acquisi-
tion receives 23.2 percent, energy research receives 18.6 percent,
and resource development bonds support receives 11.6 percent); and
3.4 percent goes to the originating county.1  The distribution of
new revenues from all taxes is summarized in Table 8-43.

     The property valuation data presented in Table 8-40 showed
that less than 2 percent of new ad_ valorem revenues will come from
residential and commercial development.  Since the energy facili-
ties will be located in unincorporated areas, municipalities will


     1 These figures differ from language in RCM 84-1309.1 because
the License Tax and Resource Indemnity Trust Tax have been com-
bined for ease of calculation.
                                690
-------
TABLE 8-43:
                 DISTRIBUTION OF NEW  TAX  REVENUES  FROM  COLSTRIP
                 SCENARIO  DEVELOPMENT
                 (millions of 1975  dollars)
YEAR
1978
1980
1983
1985
1988
1990
1995
2000
STATE
GENERAL
PURPOSE
0.4
1.3
14.3
31.1
43.9
48.6
72.9
102.5
STATE
EARMARKED
FUNDS
0
0
5.1
11
15.4
18.8
28.2
42
STATE
GRANTS
TO LOCAL
0
0
3.6
7.7
10.8
13.2
19.8
29.4
COUNTY
GENERAL
PURPOSES
0.2
1
4.1
5.9 '
9
10.4
17
23.4
SCHOOLS
(county and
district)
0.4
2.6
8.8
11
17.5
21
33.8
44. 9
be excluded from the larger part of new property taxes.  Combined
with the fact that there is no sales tax in Montana, this means
that towns such as Forsyth must depend to a great extent on allo-
cations from higher levels of government.

     But if all the state impact aid funds are channeled back to
their county of origin, then all local needs can be met, with sur-
pluses, after 1981.  In the first few years, the fiscal balance
will be as shown in Table 8-44.

E.  Social and Cultural Impacts

     A distinctive aspect of the Rosebud County area is the contin-
ued opposition of many area ranchers to strip mining and other en-
ergy development.  The arguments are largely economic, since the
land and water supplies are crucial to ranching operations, but
also include aesthetics (focusing on transmission lines) and com-
binations of the two (including air pollution effects on visibility
and on vegetation).1

     1"Colstrip Testimony."  The Plains Truth, Vol. 5  (February/
March 1976), pp. 11-16; see also Montana, Department of Natural Re-
sources and Conservation, Energy Planning Division.  Draft Environ-
mental Impact Statement on Colstrip Electric Generating Units 3 and
4, 500 Kilovolt Transmission Lines and Associated Facilities.
Helena, Mont.:  Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Con-
servation, 1974, Vol. 3-B, pp. 789-825; University of Montana, In-
stitute for Social Science Research.  A Comparative Case Study of
the Impact of Coal Development on the Way of Life of People in the
Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and Northeastern Wyoming.  Missoula,
Mont.:University of Montana,Institute for Social Science Re-
search, 1974, pp. 27-35.

                                691
-------
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                                                     692
-------
     Newcomers to the Rosebud County area have not been uniformly
impressed with living conditions in the area.  Land for housing
subdivisions is not available, even in small lots, and mobile home
living is the primary alternative.  Even in the company-owned town
of Colstrip, few families actually own their homes.1  More unset-
tling to many families is the separation within Colstrip between
construction workers, nonadministrative operation workers, and
administrators and supervisors; there is no evidence that this
will be eliminated in the future.  As a result, a number of workers,
especially those with families, have chosen to live in Forsyth,2
and this can be expected to continue.

     The major social impacts on long-time residents will be on
the ranchers, who perceive their way of life and values threatened
by coal development.  For all, local inflation will be a problem
when limited competition allows rising prices to take advantage of
high incomes.

     The quality of life in Rosebud County varies with residential
location.  Dissatisfaction with medical services, housing avail-
ability, and streets and roads is common in both Colstrip and For-
syth.  Residents of Colstrip have been quite dissatisfied with
entertainment and shopping facilities, resulting in an overall
characterization of the town as "isolated" and "dull."  In Forsyth,
these services are more readily available, and1dissatisfactions are
more regularly expressed regarding housing quality.  People re-
cently living in Forsyth tend to have positive descriptions about
the town, characterizing it as "friendly" and  "happy."  Forsyth1s
established town atmosphere appears to be much preferred over other
locations in Rosebud County.3
     JFor descriptions of Colstrip, see Myhra, David.  "Colstrip,
Montana—the Modern Company Town."  Coal Age, Vol. 80  (May 1975),
pp. 54-57; Schmechel, W.P.  "Developments at Western Energy Com-
pany's Rosebud Mine," in Clark, Wilson F., ed.  Proceedings of the
Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 1.  Billings, Mont.:  East-
ern Montana College, Montana Academy of Sciences, 1975, pp. 60-66.

     2University of Montana, Institute for Social Science Research.
A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development on the
Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and
Northeastern Wyoming"!  Missoula, Mont. :  University of Montana,
Institute for Social Science Research, 1974, pp. 16-18, 43-45.

     3Mountain West Research.  Construction Worker Profile, Com-
munity Report:  Forsyth and Colstrip, Montana.Washington,D.C.:
Old West Regional Commission, 1976, pp. 28-32, 56-61.

                                693
-------
     Medical care will continue to be a pressing need in the county,
as in most of nonmetropolitan America.  At least 16 more physicians
will be needed by 2000 just to maintain the current average of one
physician per 1,500 people.  Twice that number would be needed to
meet national averages.  As elsewhere in the West and in rural
areas, attracting physicians will be difficult if not impossible.
A subsidized group practice with guaranteed working hours would be
a possible inducement for practicing physicians.  New doctors could
also be influenced to locate in small towns through loan forgive-
ness programs.1

F.  Political and Governmental Impacts

     As noted in the preceding fiscal analysis, the state and the
school districts generally will have sufficient revenues to re-
spond to energy-related impacts.   However, the net fiscal status of
local units of government will depend largely on administrative
and policy decisions made at the state and county levels of govern-
ment and by the private owners of Colstrip.  For example, Forsyth,
which will probably be the major recipient of newcomers, must de-
pend on state-level impact aid and county revenues because the
energy facilities in this scenario are located in unincorporated
areas.  Distribution decisions of this nature become even more
critical because Montana has no sales tax.

     Funding decisions about facilities and services at Colstrip
will be up to the discretion of its administrators, as is the case
for any company town.  Administrators will have wide latitude in
the way they provide services or amenities.  In addition, workers
on energy developments not participated in by the Western Energy
Company may not be allowed to live in Colstrip as long as the com-
pany owns the town.  Colstrip' s ultimate incorporation is not
scheduled, and even if it should occur early enough for the town
to absorb new residents, the usual strains caused by service de-
mands associated with rapid growth would arise.  Decisions in both
regards will also influence the number of people locating in other
communities .

     Actions by the Montana Coal Board clearly will be instrumental
in determining whether financial problems in communities outside
the immediate area of the mines will be handled adequately.  If
all Montana state impact funds are channeled back to their county
of origin, then fiscal demands for the town of Forsyth can be met,
with surpluses, after 1981.  During 1976-1981, deficits will be
experienced, most notably in 1978 ($550,000) and 1979 ($500,000).
Besides funneling state revenues back to Forsyth, two additional
factors can be brought to bear on the "lead time" problem experienced
               Sinclair.  Physician Distribution and Rural Access
to Medical Services, R-1887-HEW.  Santa Monica, Calif.:  Rand
Corporation, 1976 .

                                694
-------
in the short term.  First, according to state law, county commis-
sioners can request prepayment of taxes on a new industrial facil-
ity, not to exceed three times the estimated property tax due the
year the facility is completed.1  These advance funds would provide
immediate local impact assistance.  Second, the state can use sev-
erance tax revenues generated in other parts of the state, just as
Rosebud's revenues can later be sent to areas beginning their
growth in the 1980*s.  In fact, Montana already has distributed
$3.96 million in such revenues to Rosebud and Big Horn Counties as
of mid-1976.  This aid is presently helping to reduce financial
hardship in Forsyth, Colstrip, and Ashland.2

     Another government impact category where money appears to be
one of the principal problems is law enforcement.  Funds are needed
for manpower and equipment to adequately handle the large projected
influx of people, especially during the construction phase of de-
velopment.  At present, the counties are levying all they can (at
least all that is politically feasible) to assist in meeting the
needs of their localities.  Local revenues are being supplemented
by revenue sharing grants and other federal sources.  Police pro-
tection in both Rosebud and Treasure Counties is a consolidated
city-county effort and, in each, is administered by the Sheriff's
office.  Officers have jurisdiction over their entire county, in-
cluding rural areas, city properties, and unincorporated towns.
In the near future, inadequate protection for Colstrip and Ashland
may force incorporation of these towns and formation of their own
police departments.3

     The most important political impacts appear to be related to
decisions concerning land use in the area.  Local governing bodies
in Montana are required by law to adopt subdivision regulations
which conform to minimum standards, including:  a requirement for
environmental assessments; analysis of possible social and economic
impacts; and dedication of land for open space (parks) or payment
of cash in lieu of land.4  In addition, a 1975 amendment to the
Montana Subdivision and Platting Act establishes specific "public
interest" criteria which county commissioners must consider and
respond to before taking action on a subdivision application,


     Montana Revised Codes Annotated § 84-41-105 (Cumulative Sup-
plement 1975).

     201d West Regional Commission Bulletin, Vol. 3 (September 1,
1976), p. 4.

     3U.S., Department of Agriculture, Committee for Rural Develop-
ment.  1975 Situation Statement;  Rosebud-Treasure Counties.  For-
syth, Mont.:Department of Agriculture,1975, pp.83-84.

     ^Montana Revised Codes Annotated §§ 11-3859 through 11-3876
(Cumulative Supplement 1975).

                                695
-------
including expressed public opinion and potential social and envi-
ronmental effects.1

     The majority of the people in Rosebud County are very con-
cerned about the balance between social costs of industrial growth
and related economic gains, and they want to play .a role in the
planning and decisionmaking process for further development.2  Con-
troversy over planning and zoning decisions may become more pro-
nounced as the area population increases.  This is particularly
significant since Rosebud County's zoning laws and regulations con-
strain the availability of land for subdivision purposes, forcing
most new residents to locate in existing towns.  The resultant ex-
pansion of the towns to a more urban character will be difficult
for some long-time residents to accept.3  Others will enjoy the
greater range of goods and services available.  The county, which
as already noted receives much of the taxation benefit from energy
development, will continue its adaptation to more populated condi-
tions by expanding roads and cooperating with the local communities.
These decisions do not always rest well with the landowners, nearly
all of whom are ranchers.1*

8.4.5  Summary of Social and Economic Impacts

     Manpower requirements and the taxes levied on the energy fa-
cilities are major causes of social and economic impacts.  For the
mines, manpower requirements for operation exceed peak construction
manpower requirements.  However, the reverse is true for the con-
version facilities, i.e., more labor is required for construction
than for operation.  In combination, total manpower requirements
for each mine-conversion facility combination increase from the
first year when construction begins, peaks, and then declines as


      1This amendment should provide a forum for the public in im-
portant growth-related decisions; however, it also raises the po-
tential for political conflict.

     2U.S., Department of Agriculture, Committee for Rural Develop-
ment.  1975 Situation Statement;  Rosebud-Treasure Counties.
Forsyth^Mont. :  Department of Agriculture, 1975, p~. 59.

     3 Ibid., pp. 57-59.

     4For example, the decision to build a new road between Col-
strip and Forsyth was opposed by area ranchers, who reportedly
prefer unpaved roads because they "discourage nosey tourists and
cattle thieves."  See University of Montana, Institute for Social
Science Research.  A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal
Development on the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of
Eastern Montana and Northeastern Wyoming.Missoula, Mont.:Uni-
versity of Montana,Institutefor Social Science Research, 1974,
p. 74.

                                696
-------
construction activity ceases.  Total manpower required for opera-
tion of the Synthoil facility and its associated mine is more than
three times that of other mine-plant combinations.

     A property tax, which is tied to capital costs, and a sever-
ance tax and royalty payments, which are tied to the value of the
coal, generate revenue for the state and local government.  Capi-
tal costs of the conversion facilities and mines hypothesized for
the Colstrip scenario range (in millions of 1975 dollars) from
about 1,150 (mine-gasification plant facility) to 2,170  (mine-
Synthoil plant facility).  The property tax rate in Montana is
about 1.19 percent but is not collected when a facility is located
on an Indian reservation.  Currently, there is no sales tax in
Montana, but a severance tax on coal of 30.5 percent is divided be-
tween the state and local governments.  State and local governments
also receive 50 percent of the royalty payments which are 12.5 per-
cent of the value of federally owned coal.  However, all royalties
are retained by Indian tribes when coal is on Indian reservations.

     If all facilities hypothesized in the Colstrip scenario are
built, the Rosebud County population will increase by about 25,000
people by the year 2000.  The largest population increases are ex-
pected in Forsyth, which will grow six-fold during the scenario
period to 13,500.  Mobile homes will be the major housing type
throughout the period, reflecting the unavailability of  land for
home construction.  School enrollments will grow slowly until about
1990 when rapid growth will take place.  The expenditure require-
ments for school districts follow the same pattern, suggesting that
lead times may be easier to deal with in Rosebud County.

     Local area incomes will change along with the shift in eco-
nomic activity.  Greater reliance on energy sectors will raise
median incomes 48 percent by 2000 and even more during construction
booms.  These incomes will likely induce local inflation, espe-
cially in housing.  Miles City and Billings will receive a signi-
ficant amount of the wholesale and retail activity from  Rosebud
County development.

     Population-related government expenditures follow the trend
of population growth, with the greatest need occurring in the early
1990's.  Of particular importance will be the water and  sewage
treatment facilities, which will require over $19 million in capi-
tal expenditures by 2000.  Although the state and the school dis-
tricts will generally have sufficient funds to respond to impacts,
the municipalities are dependent on coal tax funds and actions by the
state Coal Board for adequate revenues for local services.

     Rancher opposition to coal development in Rosebud County will
probably grow as additional grazing land is strip-mined.  The com-
pany-owned town of Colstrip provides an uncertain governmental
problem through potential prohibitions on living within the town
while working nearby.  Rosebud County's planning capacity and

                                697
-------
regulatory ability appear able to constrain the type of unplanned
sprawl occurring in some areas in the West.

8.5  ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS

8.5.1  Introduction

     The area considered for ecological impacts in the Colstrip
scenario extends from the Bighorn Mountains in the southwest, east-
ward to the Tongue River, and north to the Yellowstone River.  Most
of the landscape consists of rolling hills broken by more rugged
uplands and dissected by several tributaries to the Yellowstone.
Elevations range from 2,700 feet at Forsyth to 5,200 feet in the
Little Wolf Mountains.  The climate is semiarid with extreme annual
variations in temperature and occasional violent storms which, to-
gether with soil moisture and topography, largely determine the
abundance and distribution of the biota.1  Agricultural practices,
particularly livestock grazing and sagebrush eradication programs,
are important influences on the ecosystem.

8.5.2  Existing Biological Conditions

     The terrestrial ecosystem is characterized by two major bio-
logical communities:  ponderosa pine and juniper woodlands; and
the more gently rolling sagebrush grasslands of lower elevations.
In addition to these, floodplains and streambanks support a dis-
tinctive riparian vegetation.  Table 8-45 lists species character-
istic of these community types.  Although vertebrate wildlife range
across all three of these vegetational types, unifying them into
a single ecosystem, many species have seasonal preferences, moving
in response to the availability of shelter and forage in winter
and succulent vegetation in summer.2  Rare and endangered species
include the peregrine falcon and bald eagle; the black-footed
ferret may also be present.

     The diversity of vegetation is related to small-scale topog-
raphic variabilities, such as rock outcrops where fissures hold
pockets of soil and water for trees.  The mixture of vegetation in
turn supports a variety of wildlife.  The least abundant riparian


     Backer, Paul E.  Rehabilitation Potentials and Limitations of
Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great Plains,General Technical
Report INT-14.Ogden, Utah:U.S., Department of Agriculture, For-
est Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station,
1974.

     2For example, mule deer and antelope tend to use all three
types of vegetation, although exhibiting a preference for woodland
and sagebrush respectively.  The coyote, a major predator, and the
deer mouse, an important prey species, are also found in all types
of habitats.

                                698
-------
       TABLE 8-45:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTIC SPECIES OF MAIN
COMMUNITIES, COLSTRIP SCENARIO
       COMMUNITY
      CHARACTERISTIC
          PLANTS
   CHARACTERISTIC
      ANIMALS
  Sagebrush Grassland
   Green needlegrass
   Needle-and-thread
     grass
   Western wheatgrass
   Blue grass
   Big sage
   Silver sage
Pronghorn antelope
Whitetailed jack-
  rabbit
Badger
Western meadowlark
Sage grouse
Short-horned lizard
  Pine Woodland
   Ponderosa pine
   Rocky mountain
     juniper
   Bluebunch wheatgrass
   Sideoats grass
   Snowberry
   Goldenrod
Mule deer
Porcupine
Bobcat
Ground squirrel
  species
Great horned owl
Red-shafted flicker
Turkey
Sharptail grouse
  Streamsides
  (Riparian)
   Plains cottonwood
   Green ash
   Willow
   Wild currant
   Bluegrass
   Foxtail
   Dock
Whitetail deer
Raccoon
Little brown bat
Red fox
Shorebirds (e.g.,
  killdeer)
Yellowthroat
Ringneck pheasant
Leopard frog
habitat is probably the most critical to the maintenance of overall
ecosystem diversity, as this type is used (at least seasonally) by
most of the area's vertebrate species.  Its extent has been re-
duced by irrigated agriculture, especially in the large floodplains
of the Yellowstone, Bighorn, and Tongue Rivers.

     Rivers support a varied and diverse aquatic fauna and supply
important breeding and migration habitat for waterfowl.  Fish pop-
ulations are generally dominated by nongame species such as bull-
heads, goldeye, carp, suckers, shubs, minnows, and dace.  Game
fishes in the area include sauger and channel catfish; trout and
bass have been introduced.  Three native game species of particular
importance in the Yellowstone and Tongue River are the paddlefish,
                                699
-------
shovelnose sturgeon, and pallid sturgeon, which enter the rivers
in the spring to spawn.  A total of 49 species of fish have been
recorded in the Yellowstone in Montana.l

     The Bighorn Mountains are covered with a variety of conif-
erous forests, zoned by altitude and topography.  Alpine meadows
are scattered over the highest elevations.  The animal life of the
Bighorns is accordingly diverse; game animals include elk, mule
deer, black bear, mountain lion, bighorn sheep, antelope, white-
tailed deer, and moose.  Most of the big game animals are limited
by winter range.  Several uncommon species requiring special man-
agement practices include the wolverine, pine marten, and spotted
bat. 2

8.5.3  Factors Producing Impacts

     Four factors associated with construction and operation of the
scenario facilities (power plant, Lurgi plant, Synthane plant, Syn-
thoil plant, and their associated mines)  can cause ecological im-
pacts:  land use, population increases, water use and water pollu-
tion, and air quality changes.  With the exception of land use, the
quantities of each of these factors associated with the scenario
facilities were given in previous sections of this chapter.  Land-
use quantities are given in this section, and the others are summa-
rized.  Land use by each of the facilities proposed for the Col-
strip scenario is given in Table 8-46.  The amount of land used
during the lifetime of each facility  (30 years) ranges from about
8,000 (gasification plant-mine combination) to 12,600 (power plant-
mine combination) acres.

     Manpower requirements associated with construction and oper-
ation of the scenario energy facilities will cause an increase in
the urban population in the scenario area.  Peak manpower require-
ments for the facilities range from 2,859 for the power plant and
mine to about 5,200 for each of the other facilities.  After con-
struction is completed, manpower required for operation is about
1,000 for the power, Lurgi, and Synthane plants and mines and 3,487
for the Synthoil plant and mine.
     JPeterman, Larry G., and Michael H. Haddix.  "Preliminary
Fishery Investigations on the Lower Yellowstone River," in Clark,
Wilson F., ed.  Proceedings of the Fort Union Coal Field Symposium,
Vol. 2:  Aquatic Ecosystems Section.  Billings, Mont.:  Eastern
Montana College, 1975, p. 99.

     2 In addition, the flammulated owl, American osprey, prairie
falcon, grayling, greater sandhill crane, and gyrfalcon have also
been described as requiring special management by the U.S. Fish
and Wildlife Service.

                               700
-------
          TABLE  8-46:   LAND  USE  BY  SCENARIO  FACILITIES
             FACILITY
                                              LAND USE
ACRES/YEAR
ACRES/30 YEARS
 Conversion Facilities
    Power  Plant  (3,000 MWe)
    Lurgi  or Synthane Gasification
      Plant  (250 MMcfd)
    Synthoil Plant  (100,000 bbl/day)

 Associated Surface Coal Mines
    For Power Plant  (16.8 MMtpy)
    For Lurgi Plant  (9.6 MMtpy)
    For Synthane Plant  (8.4 MMtpy)
    For Synthoil Plant  (12.0 MMtpy)
    340
    240
    240
    250
    2,400

      805
    2,060


   10,200
    7,200
    7,200
    2,500
MWe = megawatt-electric
MMcfd = million cubic  feet per  day
bbl/day = barrels per day
MMtpy = million tons per year
 The land used by  the  surface coal mines will  increase  every  year
by the amounts given in the table for  30 years,  the  lifetime  of
the facilities.  However,  the land occupied  by the plants  will
not vary after construction is  completed.


     Water requirements for the scenario facilities operating at
the expected load factor range  from about 6,283 acre-ft/yr  (Lurgi
plant)  to 26,600 acre-ft/yr (power plant)  assuming the  facilities
are high wet cooled.  The water source will be the Yellowstone
River which has an average flow of 8,800,000 acre-ft/yr and minimum
flow of 3,720,000 acre-ft/yr1  at Miles City  (Table 8-13).  Effluents
from the energy facilities will be ponded and will contaminate sur-
face water or groundwater only  if pond liners  leak or erode.  Typ-
ical and peak concentrations of criteria pollutants from the power,
Lurgi,  and Synthane plants will not violate any federal or Montana
ambient air standards.   Annual  concentrations of SOa in the plant
vicinity ranges from 0.2 (Lurgi plant)  to 2.7  vg/m3  (power plant
and mine).   Peak concentrations of pollutants  from the  Synthoil
plant will only exceed the 3-hour federal ambient air standard for
HC but will do so by a factor of more than 100.
     1Minimum flow is 5,135 cfs and is converted to acre-ft/yr here
only so that withdrawals by the energy facilities given in acre-ft/
yr can be compared.
                                701
-------
8.5.4  Impacts

     The nature of the ecological impacts caused by these factors
depends on the plant and animal community type on which they are
imposed.  For example, the impact of land use depends on whether
sagebrush grassland or pine woodland communities are being used.
Some of the land-use trends are now evident or could occur regard-
less of energy-related growth.  A scenario, which calls for power,
Lurgi, Synthane, and Synthoil plants and their associated mines to
be developed according to a specified time schedule (see Table 8-1) ,
is used here as the vehicle through which the extent of the impacts
are explored.  Impacts caused by land use, population increases,
water use and water pollution, and air quality changes are
discussed.

A.  To 1980

     During the 1975-1980 period, construction will start on the
power plant and mine scheduled to come on-line in 1985.  Land use
by the energy facilities and urban population is given in Table
8-47.  Land use by 1980 by the urban population only totals about
800 acres, about 0.03 percent of the total amount of land in Rose-
bud County.  Forage which could be produced on this acreage would
support 9-18 cows with calves and 1-3 sheep in a year depending on
what type of habitat is disturbed by the urban population (Table
8-48) . l  For purposes of comparison, a 1974 Census of Agriculture
Preliminary Report for Rosebud County indicates a total inventory
of 94,500 cattle and calves and 15,245 sheep (including lambs).

     At the power plant site, direct habitat removal affects most
small vertebrate species locally and is not expected to reduce re-
gional populations.  However, the site area is a wintering area
for mule deer and antelope, and the disturbance from construction
activity may cause big game species to disperse into adjacent areas.
Sharptail and sage grouse courtship and brood-rearing activities
could be disturbed or displaced as far as 2 miles from the site.
           estimate is derived from the carrying capacity of the
different vegetation types in acres per Animal Unit Month (AUM) .
An AUM is a measure of forage production and represents the amount
of forage required to sustain a cow with calf, or five sheep, for
a month.  Because food habits differ, the unit cannot generally be
applied to wildlife.  Since the unit has no time dimension, its
interpretation in terms of total numbers of livestock depends on
whether the range is used seasonally or all year.  Carrying capa-
cities are:  3.5-7.0 acres/AUM in sagebrush grassland; 3.5-4.0
acres/AUM in pine woodland; and 5.5 acres/AUM in other grassland
types.  Carrying capacity of 3.5-7.0 acres/AUM was used for this
calculation.  Payne, G.F.  Vegetation Rangeland Types in Montana,
Bulletin 671.  Bozeman, Mont. :  Montana State University, Montana
Agricultural Experiment Station, 1973.

                                702
-------
                         TABLE  8-47:   LAND USE
                                         (in acres)'

By Energy Facilities
Conversion Facilities
Power Plant (3,000 MWe)
Lurgi Plant (250 MMcfd)
Synthane Plant (250 MMcfd)
Synthoil Plant (100,000 bbl/day)
Associated Surface Coal Mines
For Power Plant (16,8 MMtpy)
For Lurgi Plant (9.6 MMtpy)
For Synthane Plant (8.4 MMtpy)
For Synthoil Plant (12.0 MMtpy)
Subtotal
By Urban Population in Rosebud County
Residential
Streets
Commercial
Public and Community Facilities
Industry
Subtotal
Total Land Use
Total Land in Rosebud County 3,223,680
1975













430
86
10
27
43
596
596

1980













580
116
14
36
58
804
804

1990


2,400
805



2,040
240


5,485

860
172
21
53
86
1,192
6,677

2000


2,400
805
805
2,060

5,440
2,640
1,440
250
15,840

1,360
272
33
84
136
1,885
17,725

MWe = megawatt-electric
MMcfd = million cubic feet per day
bbl/day = barrels per day
MMtpy = million tons per year
 Values in each column are cumulative for year given.

 Acres used by the urban population were calculated using population'estimates
in Table 8-31 for Rosebud County assuming:  residential land  =  50  acres  per
1,000 population; streets = 10 acres per 1,000 population;  commercial  land =
1.2 acres per 1,000 population; public and community facilities =  3.1  acres
per 1,000 population; and industry = 5 acres per 1,000 population.   Adapted
from THK Associates.  Impact Analysis and Development  Patterns  Related to an
Oil Shale Industry:  Regional Development and Land Use Study.   Denver, Colo.:
THK Associates, 1974.
                                     703
-------
      TABLE  8-48:  POTENTIAL LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION FOREGONE:
                   COLSTRIP SCENARIO3

1980
1990
2000
Past-2000c
1974 Inventory,
Rosebud County
Loss (% of 1974
Inventory)

ACRES LOST
804
6,667
17,725
40,005


ANIMAL EQUIVALENTS13
COW/ CALVES
9- 18
77-154
205-410
462-925
94,499
0.5-1.0
SHEEP
1- 3
12- 24
32- 64
72-143
15,245e
0.5-0.9
         Includes  land used by plants, associated mines,  and
        urban population.  Acres  lost does not  include  land
        disturbed  by:  transmission, gas, and water  lines to
        the plants; two new roads to the Synthane and Syn-
        thoil facility sites; improved highways  connecting
        major new  population centers.

         Assuming  carrying capacity is 3.5-7.0  acres on range
        used all year.

         Total  land use during 30-year facility  lifetime.

         U.S.,  Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
        1974 Census of Agriculture; Preliminary  Report,
        Rosebud County, Montana.  Washington, D.C.:  Govern-
        ment Printing Office, 1976.

         Includes  lambs.

     Increases in both legal and illegal hunting are typically
associated with large construction projects in the West.  Poaching
will probably center near Colstrip and the construction site, espe-
cially since both mule deer and antelope now concentrate  there in
winter.1  Private landowners have already begun to close  their


     Unlike legitimate hunting, poaching can reduce the  breeding
stock by taking females and young, which can affect the ability of
the population to replace harvested individuals by reproduction.
As populations decline, the number of individuals which may be
safely harvested by legal hunters is reduced, and legal hunts may
be curtailed or even discontinued.
                                704
-------
lands to hunters and other outdoor recreationists; with the first
construction peak, land closure will probably become common.  While
this action may reduce poaching, it will also focus legitimate big
hunting pressure on the nearby Custer and Bighorn National Forests,
where hunter success may decline.  Manpower required for construc-
tion will cause the urban population in Rosebud County to increase
by 35 percent over the 1975 population, which will total 11,620 by
1980 (Table 8-31).  Ecological impacts associated with population
increase, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes
associated with energy development will not be significant by 1980.

B.  To 1990

     By 1990, the power and Lurgi plants and their associated sur-
face coal mines will be on-line.  Land use by 1990 by these energy
facilities and the urban population will be about 6,680 acres or
about 0.2 percent of the land in Rosebud County (Table 8-47).  For-
age which could be produced on this land would support 77-154 cows
with calves and 12-24 sheep in a year (Table 8-48).  Land use by
the power plant and mine combination will primarily be sagebrush
grassland and pine woodland, and by the Lurgi plant and mine com-
bination (sited east of Colstrip), sagebrush, woodland, and pure
grassland.   The Lurgi plant will not occupy portions of key wild-
life ranges.

     By 1990, major improvement in vehicular access will occur
throughout the scenario area.  Highway rights-of-way will generally
follow the major stream courses in the area and will constitute a
major adverse influence on these restricted habitat zones.  By 1990,
the volume of traffic along large portions of Armells and Rosebud
Creeks and the Tongue River will have increased several-fold.  Hab-
itat removal will affect a variety of small birds, mammals, and
amphibians, among them the sharptail grouse and ring-necked pheas-
ant.  Whitetail deer, largely restricted to valley bottoms, are
likely to decline.  In particular, the highway following the Tongue
River would bisect two mule deer winter concentration areas and an
antelope concentration area, increasing road kills and resulting
in a slight reduction of the deer and antelope populations.

     The urban population in Rosebud County will be about 17,160
by 1990, an increase of 100 percent over the 1975 population.  This
growth in areawide human populations, especially at Colstrip and
Forsyth, will contribute to illegal shooting of nongame animals,
off-road vehicle (ORV)  use, and habitat fragmentation from subdi-
vision and strip development.  Birds of prey, such as Swainson's
hawk and the golden eagle, which frequent roadsides and perch on
power or telephone poles, are most vulnerable to shooting.  Varmint
hunting can indirectly affect the probability of the survival of
black-footed ferrets in the area (if they are present), especially
                                705
-------
if prairie dog populations are reduced.1   Other nontarget species,
particularly the Northern kit fox and other beneficial small pred-
ators, may also show noticeable declines  by 1990.

     Some local disturbance of big game animals and interference
with the breeding and nesting of sharptail and sage grouse may
occur.  Feral dogs (dogs allowed to run loose and  become wild) may
threaten local wildlife near population centers.  Because the town
of Colstrip lies within an area of winter deer and antelope concen-
trations, there is a potential for harassment by dogs to develop
into a sufficiently important stress to effect a reduction in num-
bers,2 beginning as early as 1980, in the absence  of additional
controls.

     Water use and water pollution associated with the energy fa-
cilities are not expected to cause significant ecological impacts.
Growing municipalities in the area may discharge increasing amounts
of sewage effluent into surface waters, at least until new systems
can be built.  Although discharge from Forsyth would flow into the
Yellowstone, the amount will be negligible, even in comparison to
the historical low-flow in the Yellowstone.  Dilution will reduce
nutrient concentrations well below levels that might affect aquatic
production.  However, continued use of septic systems around Col-
strip could contaminate groundwater and transfer nutrients into
Armells Creek.  Although the stream is intermittent, nutrient en-
richment could cause algal blooms that reduce the  quality of the
aquatic environment for fish.

     Air quality changes associated with  energy development are not
expected to cause significant ecological  impacts.

C.  To 2000

     Construction of the Synthane and Synthoil facilities in the
sagebrush grassland of Sarpy Creek Valley occurs between 1990-2000.
By 2000 all the scenario facilities will  be in operation.  Land
use by the facilities and the urban population will total 17,725


     ]A survey conducted by a consulting  firm from 1972 to 1975 in
a 10x20-mile rectangle bracketing Colstrip did not detect ferrets.
Schwarzkoph, William F., and Raymond R. Austin.  "Monitoring Wild-
life Parameters Prior to Extensive Strip Mining and Operation of
Coal-Fired Steam Generating Plants at Colstrip, Montana," in Clark,
Wilson F., ed.  Proceedings of the Fort Union Coal Field Symposium,
Vol. 5:  Terrestrial Ecosystems Section.Billings,Mont.:East-
ern Montana College, 1975, p. 668.

     2The net impact of such growth-related stresses is not always
to reduce the stability of the population but to lower the propor-
tion of the total ("surplus") that can safely be removed by hunting
without threatening the balance.

                                706
-------
acres or about 0.6 percent of the land in Rosebud County (Table
8-47).   Forage on this acreage would support 205-410 cows with
calves and 32-64 sheep in a year (Table 8-48).   These facilities
will further fragment wildlife habitat around Colstrip and the
Sarpy Creek Valley.  The greatest impacts on wildlife will probably
be associated with the loss of thickets and woodlands along valleys
affected by road construction.  Poaching will probably continue to
be associated with peaks in construction activity.  The combined
effects of habitat loss, vehicular traffic, and increased legal
and illegal hunting will probably result in at least moderate re-
ductions in populations of white-tailed deer and pheasant.  A zone
of urban influence extending several miles around Colstrip may re-
sult in which wildlife will be generally less abundant and diverse,
and game species will be uncommon.  Although the Synthoil plant on
Sarpy Creek will be a more isolated influence,  it is sited in an
antelope winter concentration area and will probably cause some
relocation.  However, areawide populations of nongame species with
small ranges are not likely to be affected as strongly.

     Energy-related population increases and resultant urban devel-
opment will require a relatively negligible portion of land (about
1,885 acres, Table 8-47) and will be located almost entirely at
existing towns.  Zoning and subdivision regulations in the county
will prevent the rural settlement scatter that is occurring else-
where in the West.

     By 2000, the urban population in Rosebud County will be about
27,170, about a 215 percent increase over the 1975 population.  An
increase in recreational activities is expected due to this in-
creased population.  An important feature of the Colstrip scenario
is the limited availability of public land open to or suitable for
camping, hiking, hunting, fishing, and snowmobile and ORV use.
The closest public lands are the two National Forests, Custer in
Montana and Bighorn in Wyoming.

     The greatest potential for damage exists in the Bighorn Na-
tional Forest.  The forest will probably be a regional focus for
recreation for increased populations throughout the entire Powder
River resource region.  Large areas of the forest are closed to
vehicular traffic, or otherwise restricted, in the winter months,
which will tend to concentrate ORV and snowmobile use on the re-
maining open areas.  Wilderness areas will receive heavy foot and
horse traffic in the summer months, unless restrictions are placed
on the number of visitor days permitted.  Although numerous forest
species are tolerant of human activity, some species (including
elk, pine marten, and bighorn sheep)  avoid areas of heavy human
activity.  Disturbance of these animals may result in a complex
pattern of redistribution which could increase competition with
other species.  For example, if elk are displaced onto lower ele-
vation in winter, they may compete with deer.  Deer usually decline
under these circumstances unless the winter range is underutilized.
In addition, subdivision of private lands along the boundaries of
the national forest can fragment deer winter range.
                                707
-------
     As fishing increases in the high mountain lakes, the quality
of the sport fisheries will decrease, although more intensive
stocking programs can help maintain fish populations.  However,
without careful management of use, relatively fragile vegetation
around these lakes may be severely damaged by campers and pack
trains, especially above timberline.  Smaller wildlife (such as
pikas, ground squirrels, and marmots) could also decline in numbers
around heavily used areas, especially if dogs are permitted in the
high country.

     Beginning with the opening of the power plant in 1985, the
scenario's water demands will be capable of reducing low-flow in
the summer months in the Yellowstone River during dry years to a
point where some short-term ecological response may become notice-
able.  The magnitude of such flow reductions would be greater down-
stream of the scenario area near the Yellowstone-Missouri conflu-
ence than in the withdrawal area.  Between Miles City and Sidney,
large irrigation withdrawals currently reduce summer low-flows by
an amount equivalent to roughly 50 percent of the low-flow of re-
cord.  Outside the growing season, including the spring runoff
period critical to migratory spawners such as the paddlefish and
sturgeon, flow near Sidney is appreciably greater than at Miles
City.  For this reason, even though the impact on summer low-flow
could be significant in the lower Yellowstone, no interference
with the reproductive patterns of either spring or fall spawning
fishes are expected to result from the Colstrip scenario alone.

     Water removal by the scenario developments for energy facil-
ities peaks at 51,000 acre-ft/yr by the end of the scenario time
frame.  The impact of this use depends on the ecosystem dynamics
of the Yellowstone River.  Key ecosystem components are presently
under intensive study but are not yet sufficiently well known to
permit establishment of instream flow requirements.1  Consequently,
it is not possible to predict the magnitudes of the ecological con-
sequences of reduced summer low-flows.  However, possible effects
include additional sedimentation to a limited degree during summer,
reducing the productive riffle areas crucial to the food supply of
most game fishes, and reducing the area of quiet backwaters, island
edges, and vegetated banks important for the growth and survival
of many juvenile fish.2  These impacts would be temporary, and a
     Performed by the Montana Department of Natural Resources for
the Old West Regional Commission, Dr. Kenneth Rlackburn, Project
Coordinator.

     2Peterman, Larry G., and Michael H. Haddix.  "Preliminary
Fishery Investigations on the Lower Yellowstone River," in Clark,
Wilson F., ed.  Proceedings of the Fort Union Coal Field Symposium,
Vol. 2:  Aquatic Ecosystems Section.Billings, Mont.:Eastern
Montana College, 1975, p. 99.

                                708
-------
return to normal flow conditions will permit the ecosystem to
restore its balance in subsequent years.1

     Dewatering of active mines can affect discharge in springs
and seeps, with consequent reduction in the base flow of springs.
The severity of the resultant ecological consequences will depend
on the scale of the impact and cannot be predicted with certainty.
However, the following kinds of impacts could occur if discharge
were eliminated over a large portion (for example, 25 percent) of
the Rosebud Creek Basin throughout the entire time frame:

     Reduction in diversity and biomass of the Rosebud Creek
     ecosystem.  The stream is not important as a fishery, but
     loss of ecosystem productivity would affect terrestrial
     species such as the raccoon, shorebirds, and waterfowl.

     Reduction in extent and vigor of riparian vegetation de-
     pendent on stream underflow.  Losses of this type of vege-
     tation, if extensive, would reduce carrying capacity for
     all species listed as characteristic of this vegetation
     type, including white-tailed deer, sharptail grouse,
     pheasant, muskrat, and mink.  Sage grouse brood-rearing
     areas could also be affected.

     Reduction in density of smaller wildlife dependent on
     springs and seeps for watering, including mourning dove
     and several species of rodents.  More drought-resistant
     forms, such as Ord's kangaroo rat and woodrats, may re-
     place the species lost.

     Reduction of runoff, due to impoundment of mine and plant
site drainage, affects 6,400 acre-feet of runoff lost to the
Sarpy, Armells, and Rosebud Creek drainages.  This will combine
with that of reduced groundwater discharge to produce the impacts
discussed above.

     By the year 2000, all the scenario facilities will accumulate
impounded wastewaters on site.  All these waste ponds will contain
considerable amounts of carbonate and sulfate salts, together with
various trace metals and chemical wastes from demineralizing oper-
ations.  In addition, wastewaters from coal conversion may contain
a variety of toxic organic compounds, especially phenols (a number
of organic agents known or thought to be carcinogenic), as well as


     1 The Yellowstone is expected to supply water not just for the
development of the immediately adjacent coal deposits but for in-
dustry as far away as Gillette.  Therefore, although the Colstrip
scenario in itself is not expected to result in major ecological
damage from dewatering, regional water demands could occasion seri-
ous stress.  The ecological impacts of withdrawls at this scale
are discussed in Chapter 12.

                                709
-------
dissolved hydrogen sulfide and ammonia.  These materials could
pose a threat to wildlife if they were repeatedly consumed or con-
tacted.1  Impoundments made of reclaimed mine spoils and ash might
leach heavy metals in waters or be incorporated into aquatic and
terrestrial food chains, depending on concentration and food chain
links with the terrestrial ecosystem.  Even with these conditions
met, the resulting ecological impacts would.be local.

     All the scenario facilities emit air pollutants into the at-
mosphere, the greatest quantities coming from the power plant.  SOa
concentrations may affect vegetation.  Acute injury normally re-
sults from exposures of a few hours to high levels of SC-2.  Short-
term field fumigation studies have revealed threshold sensitivi-
ties of 1.0-1.5 ppm for range grasses2 and between 1 and 6 ppm
for sagebrush and associated shrubs.3 SC>2 damage to white and jack
pine has been observed in the field with continous exposure to be-
tween 0.13 and 0.5 ppm ambient concentrations.1*  Laboratory and
field fumigation tests have produced injury in ponderosa
     Wildlife will probably not drink from these impoundments even
though conventional fencing would deter few species.  The extreme
saltiness and probably unpleasant odors will render these waters
unpalatable, especially with clean water available nearby in the
water reservoirs at each site.  Waterfowl may occasionally land on
these ponds, especially during migration, but in the absence of
aquatic vegetation or animal life, would not remain long enough
for repeated contact with carcinogens to increase the risk of tumor
formation.  Thus, the toxic and carcinogenic compounds retained in
impoundments will probably not constitute an actual hazard to wild-
life.

     2Tingey, D.T., R.W. Field, and L. Bard.  "Physiological Re-
sponses of Vegetation to Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions," in
Lewis, R.A., N.R. Glass, and A.S. Lefohn, eds.   The Bioenviron-
mental Impact of Coal-Fired Power Plant, 2nd Interim Report:
Colstrip, Montana, EPA-600/3-76-013.Corvallis, Oreg.:  Corvallis
Environmental Research Laboratory, 1976.

     3Hill, A.C., et al.  "Sensitivity of Native Desert Vegetation
to S02 and to S02 and N02 Combined."   Journal of the Air Pollution
Control Association, Vol. 24  (February 1974), pp.153-57.

     kDreisinger, B.R.  "Monitoring Atmospheric Sulfur Dioxide and
Correlating Its Effects on Crops and Forests in the Sudbury Area,"
in Conference on the Impact of Air Pollution on Vegetation:  Pro-
ceedings .Toronto,Canada:Ontario Department of Energy and Re-
sources Management, 1970; and Linzon, S.N.  "Damage to Eastern
White Pine by Sulfur Dioxide, Semimature-Tissue Needle Blight, and
Ozone."  Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, Vol. 16
(March 1966), pp. 140-44.

                                710
-------
pine between 0.4 and 10.0 ppm, depending on the investigator.1
Crops grown in the Colstrip area are largely alfalfa and winter
wheat, both of which are sensitive to S02.  Acute damage has occur-
red in wheat at concentrations of 0.20-0.40 ppm2 and in alfalfa at
0.5 ppm.3

     Dispersion modeling indicates that the highest short-term
ground-level concentrations experienced, with all facilities-on-
line, will be 0.26 ppm (3-hour average) downwind of the power plant.
Under most circumstances, concentrations will be at least an order
of magnitude less.  This maximum level could damage wheat crops, and
dispersion conditions producing these high concentrations occur
mainly in the winter.  Spring brings the most favorable conditions
for ventilation.

     Chronic damage typically occurs when S02 levels are much lower
than those required to induce direct injury.  Chronic SO2 pollution
damage of alfalfa and wheat may be possible downwind of the power
plant.  Judging from the relatively higher tolerances of native
plants to acute S02, these species may be less likely to develop
chronic injury symptoms.  However, in the absence of appropriate
data, the possibility cannot be ruled out.

D.  After 2000

     Land use by the urban population and energy facilities during
their 30-year lifetime will total 40,055 acres, about 1.2 percent
of the land in Rosebud County (Table 8-47 and 8-48).  Over 92 per-
cent of Rosebud County is cropland, grazing land, or woodland,
and any land use would necessarily reduce the agricultural acreage.
The amount of forage which could be produced on 40,055 acres would
support 462-925 cows with calves and 72-143 sheep per year, about
0.5-1.0 percent of the 1974 inventory of cows with calves and sheep
in Rosebud County (Table 8-48).   Additional land bordering on coal
            A.C., et al.  "Sensitivity of Native Desert Vegetation
to S02 and to SC>2 and N02 Combined."  Journal of the Air Pollution
Control Association, Vol. 24 (February 1974), pp. 153-57.

     2Guderian, R.,  and H. Van Haut.  "Detection of S02 Effects Up-
on Plants."  Staub-Reinhaltung der Luft, Vol. 30 (1970), pp. 22-35,

     3Tingey, D.T.,  et al.  "Vegetation Injury from Interaction of
Nitrogen Dioxide and Sulfur Dioxide."  Phytopathology,  Vol. 61
(December 1971), pp. 1506-11.

                                711
-------
mining areas may be rendered unsuitable for grazing as a result of
odors, pollution, dust, and noise.1

     Land leased for coal as of July 1974 covers 3.86 percent of
the county (about 129,000 acres), indicating a potentially greater
number of surface mines.2  The ultimate impact of mining, which
will use 32,100 acres primarily consisting of sagebrush/grasslands,
pine forest, and savanna, will depend on the success with which
they are reclaimed.  Although variable, the overall climate around
Colstrip favors reclamation.  However, during periods of drought,
moisture stress will reduce the success of new plantings and alter
the species composition of existing stands.3

     Overburden characteristics vary widely among the coal fields
of southeastern Montana.  While spoils from the existing mine at
Colstrip are not excessively saline, overburden at the nearby
Decker mine and in the neighboring Otter Creek coal field contains
layers which are salty enough to cause problems with the initial
establishment of vegetation.  At Decker, it has been shown that
salinity of the surface spoil is acceptably reduced after the first
one or two years, especially if irrigated.4

     Although with proper fertilization and surface treatment
spoils can be returned to a productive cover of grasses, it has
proven more difficult to reestablish woody vegetation equivalent
to the preexisting biological community.  Ponderosa pine, impor-
tant over almost half the total mine areas, will be particularly
difficult to restore, both because it requires a long time to ma-
ture and because its need for water is generally greater than that
of the grasses.


     Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Conservation,
Energy Planning Division.  Draft Environmental Impact Statement on
Colstrip Electric Generating Units 3 and 4, 500 Kilovolt Transmis-
sion Lines .and Associated Facilities.  Helena, Mont.:  Montana De-
partment of Natural Resources and Conservation, 1974, pp. 767-70.

     2U.S., Department of Agriculture, Committee for Rural Develop-
ment.  1975 Situation Statement:  Rosebud-Treasure Counties.
Forsyth, Mont.:  Department of Agriculture, 1975, pp. 46-47.

     3Short-term climatic fluctuations in the Colstrip area result
in severe droughts lasting two years or more, recurring at one-or-
two-decade intervals.  Drought cycles of 15-20 years are character-
istic of this area, with drier than normal years occurring more
frequently than years with above-average precipitation.

     4Farmer, E.E., et al.  Revegetation Research on the Decker
Coal Mine in Southeastern Montana, Research Paper INT-162.  Ogden,
Utah:  U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermoun-
tain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 1974.

                                712
-------
     The foregoing factors suggest that reclamation efforts may
partially or completely restore grazing values in most years bar-
ring problems with excess salts in the soil, but will not restore
the original native cover.1  Thus, the original ecosystem of mined
areas will probably not be restored, since both topographic and
vegetational diversity are critical factors.  The degree to which
this grazing value is restored will depend on climatic patterns,
spoil characteristics, and grazing management.  Therefore, the
32,100 acres mined in the scenario should be considered a long-
term loss to wildlife such as antelope, sage grouse, and a large
number of songbirds which depend on shrubby cover at some critical
point in their life cycle.

     Small amounts of cropland in the Armells Creek Valley will be
removed by strip mining and community expansion; some agricultural
land will also be preempted by the construction of new roads in the
Tongue River and Rosebud Creek valleys.  While exact acreage fig-
ures are not known, the total will be well below one percent of
Rosebud County's 1974 cropland total of 157,400 acres.  Toward the
end of the scenario, and after 2000, salinity increases brought on
by contamination of groundwater by mine leaching could reduce the
extent of irrigated agriculture locally near the mines.  However,
salinities would have to rise between 10- and 100-fold to enter
the range toxic to crops; this is unlikely even in the immediate
vicinity of the contamination source.

     Ecological impacts after 2000 caused by urban population,
water use and water pollution, and air quality changes will be
similar to those described prior to 2000.

8.5.5  Summary of Ecological Impacts

     Four factors associated with construction and operation of the
scenario facilities can significantly affect the ecological impacts
of energy development:  land use, population increases, water use
and water pollution, and air quality changes.  Land use by the
urban population and energy facilities during the thirty-year life-
time of the facilities will total 40,055 acres, 1.2 percent of the
land in Rosebud County.  By 2000, the urban population in Rosebud
County will be about 27,120, a 215 percent increase over the 1975
population.  Water requirements for the energy facilities operating
at the expected load factor (assuming high wet cooling) will be


     :The largely discounted agricultural practice of repeated
summer fallowing has resulted in the loss of some 380,000 acres of
cropland in Montana because of the deposition of salts in the sur-
face soil.  Salts dissolved from the lower layers are carried up-
ward through evaporation into the surface.  A similar problem could
arise in irrigated or fallowed spoil material.  Mine reclamation
experience in this region has not covered a time span long enough
for such a phenomenon to be observed.

                                713
-------
51,000 acre-ft/yr which represents 0.6 percent of the average flow
and 1.4 percent of the minimum flow of their water source, the
Yellowstone River.  This river is also the water source for munic-
ipalities in the scenario area (except for Colstrip which uses
groundwater).   Effluents from the energy facilities will be ponded
to prevent water contamination.   Increased wastewater from the in-
creased population will require new sewage treatment facilities.
The SO2 level due to plant emissions may cause acute damage to
wheat crops and/or chronic damage to wheat and alfalfa crops.
Table 8-49 summarizes expected population trends in selected ani-
mal species over the scenario period.   However, climatic fluctu-
ations characteristic of southeastern Montana can, and probably
will, modify these predictions considerably either by imposing
ecosystem-wide stress (drought,  winter conditions) or especially
benign conditions (abundant spring and summer rainfall, easy
winters).

     Noticeable impacts on game animal populations arising from
scenario activities will not develop until the first construction
peak in the 1980-1990 decade.  Recent wildlife population trends
of the Colstrip area have been downward since 1971, and these
trends have been projected arbitrarily over the remainder of the
1975-1980 period.

     The greatest local impact on mule deer populations will arise
from the encroachment of mining and residential-urban growth on
wintering habitat near Colstrip.  In addition, poaching may be ex-
pected to have moderate to serious consequences.  By the 1990-2000
decade, only scattered groups of deer may continue to winter there.
Roads passing directly through wintering areas may also result in
increases in road kills, possibly followed by changed distribution
patterns.  The cumulative impact of all these influences is ex-
pected to be a moderate decline in deer numbers throughout the
scenario area, especially around Colstrip.

     Antelope around Colstrip will be affected by the same stresses
as mule deer but to a somewhat greater degree because more winter-
ing habitat is affected.  The continued presence of large expanses
of superior antelope habitat north of the Yellowstone will tend to
reduce the regional significance of this loss.  However, by 1995,
antelope may decline to very low levels in Rosebud County.

     Of the three major game birds in the Colstrip area, pheasants
will suffer most from the loss of habitat and sage grouse least.
Loss of springs and seeps and reduced stream flow due to mine de-
watering and runoff interception may also eliminate some brood-
rearing habitat for these species.  However, closure of private
lands to hunting may counteract these trends to the extent that,


     JThe following discussion does not include the Bighorn
Mountains.

                                714
-------
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                                        716
-------
while local declines may be observed in the immediate vicinity of
the plant sites and Colstrip, overall county populations may re-
main largely unaffected.

     Three species currently listed as threatened by the Fish and
Wildlife Service may be found in the Colstrip area.  The bald eagle
and peregrine falcon are seasonal visitors; both are susceptible
to illegal shooting, but the impact of such individual losses on
overall population levels is probably outweighed by influences on
breeding habitat elsewhere.

     Although apparently absent from the immediate Colstrip vicin-
ity, the black-footed ferret has been confirmed in Rosebud County
as late as 1972.  The main threat to these animals from the sce-
nario developments will probably be through destruction of prairie
dog towns utilized by ferrets.  Intensive study in the areas where
most of the scenario facilities will be sited has so far failed to
discover the animals.

     The prairie falcon, recently removed from the Fish and Wild-
life Service list, is an uncommon resident which may breed in the
scenario area.  These birds are also subject to illegal shooting;
if they breed in the area, they could, unlike the other two raptor
species, decline because of shooting losses.

     Several species of mammals and fish can be considered as in-
dicators of ecological change.  Reclaimed mine areas may, for a
time, take on the character of early successional communities and
support a fauna dominated by rodents.  Richardson's ground squirrel,
which feeds to a large extent on weedy forbs, may be an indicator
of the formation of this kind of community, provided that the tex-
ture of the soil permits burrowing.  Species characteristic of ma-
ture vegetation include the prairie vole and cottontail rabbit;
the first requires relatively dense stands of grasses, while the
second prefers brushy areas.  Their absence is an indication of the
degree to which the vegetation has been modified from its original
structure, and their return will signal at least partial success
in restoring wildlife values.  Dewatering in the Yellowstone is
expected to result in only minor and temporary changes in the eco-
system.  Such change as may be observed would probably first be
indicated by a restriction in the distribution of the stonecat, a
species especially sensitive to flow conditions, below Miles City.
The somewhat more pervasive ecological change which might result
from cumulative water withdrawals for industry outside the immedi-
ate scenario area would be signaled by an increase in the dominance
of such generalist fish species as carp, catfish, and suckers.

     Table 8-50 ranks the major impacts on the ecosystem into three
classes, based on their severity and extent.  Class C includes im-
pacts which are expected to be very localized (within a few square
miles)  and thus will not create measurable changes in the stability
of areawide animal populations.  Thus, direct habitat removal is

                                717
-------
             TABLE 8-50:
              SUMMARY OF MAJOR FACTORS
              AFFECTING ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
   IMPACT
  CATEGORY
     1975-1980
          1980-2000
 Class A
Fragmentation of
deer and antelope
wintering areas by
facility, town
siting, mining
Continued fragmentation of
sagebrush/grassland habitat

Fragmentation of riparian
habitats
 Class B
Illegal shooting
Illegal shooting

Increased recreational pressure
on national forests
 Class C
Grazing losses

Loss of irrigated
cropland
Grazing losses

Loss of irrigated cropland

Water withdrawal from Yellow-
stone River

Acute SO2 damage to crops
 Uncertain
Contamination of
Armells Creek by
sewage from septic
systems
Contamination of Armells Creek
by sewage from septic systems

Chronic SO2 damage to sensitive
vegetation

Local flow depletions of springs
and seeps from mine dewatering

Contamination of groundwater
from mine spoil leaching
 SO2 =  sulfur  dioxide

included until 1980, as are alterations in groundwater discharge.
Water withdrawals from the Yellowstone (for this section) are also
placed in Class C because of the infrequency with- which they would
occasion adverse impacts and because the natural adaptive charac-
teristics of the ecosystem are considered capable of compensating
for such infrequent disturbances.

     Class B impacts include those that affect animal populations
which range over larger areas (the size of national forests or
counties).  This class includes game poaching and illegal shooting
                                718
-------
of nongame species, such as raptors, and growing demands on the
recreational resources of the two nearby national forests.

     Class A impacts include those which are considered to be the
key factors involved in the projected declines of animal popula-
tions discussed above.  Habitat loss and fragmentation, particu-
larly in limited streamside habitats and winter concentration
areas, are key aspects of the scenario that cannot be materially
reduced.  Because critical wildlife habitats are affected, the
severity of the impact cannot be much lessened by management of
remaining lands, as can be done with livestock grazing.  The lim-
itations of geology and climate on reclamation also curtail the
potential restoration of wildlife values on mined lands.

8.6  OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT COLSTRIP

     The primary benefits of the hypothetical energy developments
in the Colstrip area will be the production and shipment of 500
million cubic feet of synthetic natural gas per day, 100,000 bar-
rels per day of synthetic crude oil, and 3,000 megawatts of elec-
tricity.  However, these benefits clearly will accrue primarily
to people outside the area.  Local benefits are principally eco-
nomic and include increased tax revenues for state as well as
county and local governments, increased retail and wholesale trade,
and secondary economic development.  New revenues will provide for
expansion of municipal services, such as water distribution and
treatment systems, police and fire protection services, and im-
proved health care facilities.  Local governments will generally
be hard-pressed initially to provide the services for the increased
population.  Existing school, housing, health, and public safety
services will be overwhelmed at the outset by the influx of workers
and their families.  For example, in Rosebud County a fourfold
increase in population by 2000 will result in increases in both
the demand for housing and for educational facilities.  Revenues
produced by the development will be adequate to pay for the educa-
tion demands, but municipal services in the 1975-1980 time,frame
will be inadequate for the construction population as revenues do
not improve until the operation phase in the mid-1980"s.

     Social and economic impacts associated with energy development
in the Colstrip area tend to be a function of the labor and capital
intensity of development and, when multiple facilities are involved,
of scheduling their construction.  These factors determine the pace
and extent of migration of people to the scenario area as well as
the financial and managerial capability of local governments to
provide services and facilities for the increased population.  Labor
forces increase the population directly and indirectly.  More labor
is required for construction of the facilities than for operation;
thus suitable scheduling of facility construction can minimize pop-
ulation instability.  Of the facilities hypothesized for the
Colstrip scenario, the power plant-mine combination is the least
labor-intensive and the Synthoil facility is the most.  Property

                                719
-------
taxes which are tied to the capital cost of the energy facilities
and a severance tax and royalty payments which are tied to the
value of the coal will generate revenue for local, state, and fed-
eral governments.  Solutions to problems concerning who gets the
benefits of revenue from the energy facilities and who provides
services needed by the increased population in the scenario area
involves all levels of government and their ability to relate to
each other.  Montana's state government provides financial assis-
tance to communities for the expansion of public services and pub-
lic facilities.  The state gives the communities a portion of the
state revenue obtained from mineral leases and severance taxes.
The fact that communities in the scenario area are small and do
not have well developed planning capabilities will make social and
economic impacts difficult to handle.  These impacts would be mit-
igated if people who have migrated out of the area returned and
were hired along with some local unemployed laborers to meet the
manpower requirements for energy facility construction and opera-
tion.

     Many of the negative impacts associated with increased popu-
lation could be minimized if coal rather than electricity and syn-
thetic oil and gas was exported from the Colstrip area.  Construc-
tion impacts would be reduced while revenue benefits to the state
from producing the resource would continue.  However, elimination
of the conversion facilities would substantially decrease both cap-
ital investment and additions to the property tax base which pro-
vide for expanded local public services.  Alternative rates of de-
velopment or scheduling affect the social impacts from construction
phases of the energy developments.  If the construction phases of
the different facilities were coordinated, the minor boom and bust
cycles could be avoided.  This would be a significant advantage
for planning housing and educational 'facilities.

     Air quality impacts associated with energy development are
related primarily to quantities of pollutants emitted by the fa-
cilities and to diffuse emissions associated with population in-
creases.  The greatest concentrations of particulates, NOX, and
S02 are emitted by the power plant and the least by the gasifica-
tion plant; but, the Synthoil plant produces higher HC concentra-
tions than the other conversion facilities.  Air quality impacts
will be limited to the violation of the federal ambient HC stan-
dard.  The violation will occur in connection with the Synthoil
facility and the increased urban growth at Colstrip.  All other
federal standards, as well as EPA1s PSD increments, will be met.
Control of fugitive HC at Colstrip from the Synthoil facility is
difficult to achieve short of locating the plant elsewhere.

     Water impacts associated with energy development in the Col-
strip area are a function of the water required and effluents pro-
duced by energy facilities and associated population.  The power
plant requires the most; the Lurgi requires the least.  Water de-
mand for the population is significant but less than that for the

                               720
-------
facilities.  Effluents from synthetic fuels plants are similar in
amounts but different in composition.  Effluents from coal gasifi-
cation plants are primarily ash, and from power plants are nearly
equal amounts of ash and FGD sludge.  Effluents from all the fa-
cilities will be ponded to prevent contamination of surface water
and groundwater in the scenario area.

     Water quality impacts may be minimized by achieving FWPCA
zero discharge goals.  The most significant water quality impact
will be associated with municipal water treatment facilities.  It
is doubtful that Forsyth,  the only community in Rosebud County
which currently has a wastewater treatment facility, will be able
to expand its facility at  the rate necessary to match the projected
population growth.  The other communities rely on septic tanks,
which will pose a hazard to groundwater quality.  This may ulti-
mately pose a special hazard to the Colstrip residents because
they will be relying on groundwater resources for their municipal
water needs.

     Meeting the water requirements of energy development will take
a small fraction of the average flow of the Yellowstone River, but
this may be significant during periods of low flow.  Groundwater
aquifer systems in the Colstrip area may be depleted as a result
of Colstrip's increasing municipal requirements, coal mine dewa-
tering practices, and decreased surface runoff, which will in-
crease the infiltration rate.

     Flow reduction in the Yellowstone can be reduced by wet/dry
or dry cooling of the power plants at greater economic costs but
with savings of up to 64 percent of the water demand for the en-
ergy facilities.  A minimum of water from the Yellowstone would
be used if the coal were shipped out of the region before conver-
sion.

     Ecological impacts associated with energy development in the
Colstrip area are a function of land use, population increases,
water use and water pollution, and air quality changes.  Land use
by surface mining activities will be greater than that by energy
facility structures and by the population.  However, much of the
land used by mining can be reclaimed.  The average rainfall  (10-20
inches annually) and well-developed soil in the scenario area makes
revegetation likely.  However, when and if the original plant com-
munity will be reestablished is highly uncertain.  Habitat fragmen-
tation and stress induced  by increased recreational activities will
adversely affect wildlife  and some species of game animals.  Eco-
logical impacts associated with water use and water pollution, and
air quality changes are not expected to be significant in the
Colstrip area.
                                721
-------
                            CHAPTER 9

  THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AT THE BEULAH AREA


9.1  INTRODUCTION

     Although energy development proposed for the Beulah area
will take place in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean Counties in west-
central North Dakota, most development is centered around Beulah
in Mercer County (Figure 9-1).   This development consists of five
surface coal mines that will produce from 10-20 million tons per
year, a 3,000 megawatt-electric (MWe)  mine-mouth electric genera-
tion plant, and four coal gasification plants, each capable of
producing 250 million standard cubic feet per day.  The location
of these facilities is shown in Figure 9-2.  Although some of
the electricity and gas will be distributed within North Dakota,
most of the energy will be shipped to demand centers farther
eastward via gas pipelines and electrical transmission lines.
Construction of these facilities began in 1975, and all the facil-
ities will be fully operational by 2000.  The technologies to be
deployed and the timetable for their deployment are presented in
Table 9-1.l

     In all four impact sections of this chapter  (air, water,
social and economic, and ecological), the factors that produce
impacts are identified and discussed separately for each facility
type.  In the air and water sections, the impacts caused by those
factors are also discussed separately for each facility type and,
in combination, for a scenario in which all facilities are con-
structed according to the scenario schedule.  In the social and
economic and ecological sections, only the combined impacts of
the scenario are discussed.  This distinction is made because
social, economic, and ecological effects are, for the most part,
higher order impacts.  Consequently, facility-by-facility impact
discussions would have been repetitive in nearly every respect.


     1While this hypothetical development may parallel development
proposed by Baukol-Noonan, Minnkota Power Cooperative, Knife River
Coal Mining, Consolidation Coal, Montana-Dakota Utilities, Coteau
Properties, American Natural Gas, Basin Electric Power Cooperative,
United Power Association, Falkirk Mining, and others, the devel-
opment identified here is hypothetical.  As with the others, this
scenario was used to structure the assessment of a particular com-
bination of technologies and existing conditions.

                               722
-------
                                                w
                                                u
                                                c/3
                                                W
                                                PQ


                                                H
                                                ffi
                                                I

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                                                O
723
-------
724
-------
 TABLE 9-1:   RESOURCE AND HYPOTHESIZED  FACILITIES AT BEULAH
Resources
Coala (billions of tons)
Resources 2
Proved Reserves 1.6





Technologies
Extraction
p,-.-a 1
WDd .L
Five surface mines of
varying capacity using
draglines


Conversion
One 3,000 MWe power plant consis-
ting of four 750 MWe turbine gen-
erators; 34% plant efficiency;
80% efficient limestone scrubbers;
99% efficient electrostatic precip-
itator, and wet forced-draft cool-
ing towers
Two Lurgi coal gasification plants
operating at 73% thermal effi-
ciency; nickel-catalyzed methana-
tion process; Glaus plant HjS re-
moval; and wet forced-draft cool-
ing towers
Two Synthane coal gasification
plants operating at 80% effi-
ciency; nickel-catalyzed methana-
tion process; Glaus plant HaS re-
moval; wet forced-draft cooling
towers
Transportation
Gas
Two 30-inch pipelines
Electricity
Four 500 kV lines



CHARACTERISTICS

u
Coalb
Heat Content 7,070 Btu's/lb
Moisture 36 %
Volatile Matter 40 %
Fixed Carbon 32 %
Ash 6 %
Sulfur 0.8%
FACILITY
SIZE
19 . 2 MMtpy
10.8 MMtpy
10 . 8 MMtpy
9.6 MMtpy
9.6 MMtpy

750 MWe
750 MWe
1,500 MWe




250 MMscfd
250 MMscfd




250 MMscfd
250 MMscfd








500 kV
500 kV
500 kV
(2 lines)
COMPLETION
DATA
1980
1982
1987
1995
2000

1977
1979
1980




1982
1987




1995
2000






1982
1995
1977
1979
1980

FACILITY
SERVICED
Power Plant
Lurgi
Lurgi
Synthane
Synthane

Power Plant
Power Plant
Power Plant




Lurgi
Lurgi




Synthane
Synthane






Lurgi
Synthane
Power Plant
Power Plant
Power Plant

Btu1s/lb = British thermal  units  per pound
MMtpy = million tons  per year
MWe = megawatt-electric
MMscfd = million standard cubic
         feet per day
HzS = hydrogen sulfide
kV = kilovolts
 Anderson,  Donald L.   Regional  Analysis of the U.S. Electric Power Industry, Vol.4A:
Coal Resources in the United  States,  for U.S. Energy Research and Development Admin-
istration.   Springfield,  Va.:   National Technical Information Service, 1975.

 Ctvrtnicek,  T.E.,  S.J.  Rusek,  and C.W. Sandy.  Evaluation of Low-Sulfur Western
Coal Characteristics, Utilization, and Combustion Experience, EPA-650/2-75-046,  Con-
tract No.  68-02-1302.  Dayton,  Ohio:  Monsanto Research Corporation, 1975.
                                       725
-------
     The three-county area is generally characterized by low
unemployment, farming, and .privately owned lands.  Aside from
agriculture, the remainder of the labor force is distributed
mostly in the service and trade industries and government ser-
vices.  Manufacturing has been extremely limited.  The reliance
on agriculture has resulted in a steadily shrinking population
(30 percent smaller in 1970 than in 1950) .

     The topography is primarily gently rolling prairies; the
climate is semiarid with extreme seasonal variations in tempera-
ture.  Much of the past ecological diversity has recently given
way to intensive livestock grazing and cultivation, and aquatic
habitats have been modified by reservoirs.  Groundwater and sur-
face water are available in the area, the latter primarily from
the Missouri River and the Garrison Reservoir.  Air quality is
generally good with good dispersion conditions prevailing
throughout the year.  Selected characteristics of the area are
summarized in Table 9-2.  Elaborations of these characteristics
are introduced as required to explain the impact analyses re-
ported in this chapter.

9.2  AIR IMPACTS1

9.2.1  Existing Conditions

A.  Background Pollutants

     Air quality in the Beulah area is currently affected by
four lignite-fired power plants ranging from 13.5 MWe to 23.5
MWe.  Measurements of criteria pollutant2 concentrations taken
at Bismarck, North Dakota,3 do not indicate violations of any
federal or state standards for particulates, sulfur dioxide
(SOz), or nitrogen oxides  (NOX).  Based on these measurements,
annual average background  levels chosen as inputs to the air
     *The federal standards referred to in this section are those
promulgated prior to the revisions mandated by the Clean Air Act
Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685.

     2Criteria pollutants are those for which ambient air quality
standards are in force:  carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, NOX,
oxidants, particulates, and S02-

     3U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation,
Upper Missouri Region.  ANG Coal Gasification Company;  North
Dakota Project;  Draft Environmental Statement.Billings,Mont.:
Bureau of Reclamation, 1977.

                               726
-------
     TABLE 9-2:  SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BEULAH AREA
    Environment

      Elevation
      Precipitation  (annual)

      Temperatures
        January  minimum
        July  maximum

      Vegetation
    Social  and  Economic

      Land  Ownership

      Land  Use
      Population Density
      Unemployment
      Income
      County  Government
      City  (Beulah)  Government
      Taxation
      County  Revenues  (1972)
1,700-2,200 feet
17 inches average annually
86°F

Mixed-grass prairie with
  stream-side woodlands
Private ownership in excess of
  90%
97% agriculture
5.9 per square mile
3.6%
$11,270 per capita annual
Board of Commissioners
Mayor-Council
Primarily property tax
$750,000
   Characteristics for Mercer County,  1975 dollars.
dispersion models are:  particulates, 39; S02, 14; and nitrogen
dioxide (N02), 4.1

B.  Meteorological Conditions

     The worst dispersion conditions for the Beulah area are
associated with stable air conditions, low wind speeds (less


     1 These estimates are based on the Radian Corporation's best
professional judgement.  They are used as the best estimates of
the concentrations to be expected at any particular time.  Mea-
surements of hydrocarbons (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO) are not
available in the rural areas.  However, high-background HC levels
have been measured at other rural locations in the West and may
occur' here.  Background CO levels are assumed relatively low.
Measurements of long-range visibility in the area are hot avail-
able, but the average is estimated to be 60 miles.
                               727
-------
than 5-10 miles per hour) , persistent wind direction, and
relatively low mixing depths.1 These conditions are likely to in-
crease concentrations of pollutants from both ground level and
elevated sources.2  Since worst-case conditions differ at each
facility location, predicted annual average pollutant levels vary
among locations even if pollutant sources are identical.  Pro-
longed periods of air stagnation are uncommon in the Beulah area
because of moderate to strong winds, relatively high mixing
depths, and a general lack of stagnating high-pressure systems.
Meteorological conditions in the area are generally unfavorable
for pollution dispersion about 30 percent of the time.  Hence,
plume impaction3 and limited mixing of plumes caused by air inver-
sions at plume height can be expected with some regularity.1*
Favorable dispersion conditions associated with moderate winds
and large mixing depths are expected less than 15 percent of the
time.

     The pollution dispersion potential for the Beulah area may
be expected to vary considerably with the season and time of day.
Fall and winter mornings are most frequently associated with poor
dispersion due largely to lower wind speeds and mixing depths.

9.2.2  Factors Producing Impacts

     The emission sources in the Beulah scenario which will pro-
duce air impacts are a power plant, four gasification facilities
(two Lurgi and two Synthane) , supporting surface mines, and those
sources associated with population increases.  The focus of this
section is on emissions of criteria pollutants from the energy
facilities.5  Table 9-3 lists the amounts of the five criteria
pollutants emitted by each of the three types of facilities.  In


     fixing depth is the distance from the ground to the upward
boundary of pollution dispersion.

     ^Ground-level sources include towns and strip mines that emit
pollutants close to ground level.  Elevated sources are stack
emissions .

     3 Plume impaction occurs when stack plumes impinge on elevated
terrain because of limited atmospheric mixing and stable air con-
ditions .
          National Climatic Center.  Wind Dispersion by Pasquill
Stability Classes, Star Program for Selected U.S. Citie¥T
Ashville, N.C.:  National Climatic Center, 1975.

     5Air impacts associated with population increases are dis-
cussed below (Section 9.2.3) since those impacts relate to the
scenario, which includes all facilities constructed according
to the hypothesized schedule.

                                728
-------
            TABLE 9-3:  EMISSIONS FROM FACILITIES
                        (pounds per hour)
FACILITY3
Power Plant
Mine
Plant
Lurgi
Mine
Plant
Synthane
Mine
Plant
P ARTICULATES
24b
3,012
7b
N
8b
8
S02
16
13,848
5
516
5
3,524
NOX
215
21,084-
35,140C
66
649
69
5,052
HC
180
652
8
47d
94d
CO
25
2,176
40
N
42
176
   S02 = sulfur dioxide
   N0y = oxides of nitrogen
   HC = hydrocarbons
CO = carbon monoxide
N = negligible
    The Lurgi and Synthane gasification facilities each produce
   250 million standard cubic feet per day, and each plant has
   three stacks.

    These particulate emissions do not include fugitive dust.

    Range represents 0 and 40 percent NOX removal by scrubbers.

    These emissions do not include fugitive HC.
all three cases, most emissions come from the plants rather than
the mines.  Most mine-related pollution originates from diesel
engine combustion products, primarily N0x,  hydrocarbons (HC),  and
particulates.   Although dust suppression techniques are hypothe-
sized in the scenario, some additional particulates will come
from blasting, coal piles, and blowing dust.1

     The largest single contributor to total emissions for all
pollutants is  the power plant.  The hypothetical power plant in
the Beulah area has four 750-MWe boilers, each with its own
     xThe effectiveness of current dust suppression practices is
uncertain.  Separate research being conducted by the Environmental
Protection Agency is investigating this question.  The problem of
fugitive dust is discussed briefly in Chapter 10.
                               729
-------
stack.l  The plant is equipped with an electrostatic precipitator
(ESP) which removes 99 percent of the particulates and a scrubber
which removes 80 percent of the S02-   Scrubber removal of NO  is
uncertain and is thought to vary from none to 40 percent.  The
plant has two 75,000-barrel oil storage tanks, with standard
floating roof construction, each of which will emit up to 0.7
pound of HC per hour.  Table 9-4 lists the amounts of particu-
lates, S02, and NOX emitted (per million British thermal units
[Btu] of coal burned) from a power plant operating under the con-
ditions described above and compares those emissions to the New
Source Performance Standards (NSPS).2  SO2 emissions are well
below the standard, but particulate emissions just meet the stan-
dard; NO  emissions violate it.  N0x removal of 38 percent is
required to just meet NSPS.  In order for the power plant to just
meet the NSPS for S02, 48 percent efficient SO2 scrubbers (as
opposed to the 80 percent hypothesized)  removal would be re-
quired. 3

     The power plant and the two coal conversion facilities are
cooled by wet forced-draft cooling towers.  Each of the cells in
the cooling towers circulates water at a rate of 15,330 gallons
per minute (gpm) and emits 0.01 percent of its water as a mist.
The circulating water has a total dissolved solids  (TDS) content
of 4,580 parts per million.  This results in a salt emission rate
of 29,100 pounds per year for each cell.1*

9.2.3  Impacts

     This section describes air quality impacts which result from
each type of conversion facility (power plant, Lurgi, and Synthane)
     Stacks are 500 feet high, have an exit diameter of 33.1
feet, mass flow rates of 3.10 x 106 cubic feet per minute, an
exit velocity of 60 feet per second, and an exit temperature of
180° Farenheit.

     2NSPS limit the amount of a given pollutant a stationary
source may emit; the limit is expressed relative to the amount
of energy in the fuel burned.

     3The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91
Stat. 685, § 109, requires both an emissions limitation and a
percentage reduction of S02, particulates, and N0x-  Revised
standards have not yet been established by the Environmental
Protection Agency.

     4The power plant has 64 cells, the Lurgi plant has 11, and
the Synthane plant has 6.

                               730
-------
        TABLE 9-4:
COMPARISON OF EMISSIONS FROM POWER
PLANT WITH NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE
STANDARDS
(pounds per million Btu)
POWER PLANT
Particulates
S02
N0xb
EMISSION
0.10
0.47
0.72-1.2
NSPSa
1.10
1.2
0.7
                NSPS = New Source Performance
                       Standards
                Btu = British thermal unit
                    = sulfur dioxide
                NOX = oxides of nitrogen

                 The North Dakota state S02 emission
                standards are the same as federal.
                Data from White, Irvin L. , et al.
                Energy From the West:  Energy Re-
                source Development Systems Report.
                Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environ-
                mental Protection Agency, forth-
                coming, Chapter 2.

                 Range represents 0 and 40 percent
                NOX removal by scrubbers.
taken separately1 and from a scenario which includes construction
of all facilities according to the hypothesized scenario schedule.
For the power plant the effect on air quality of hypothesized
emission control, alternative emission control, alternative stack
heights, and alternative plant sizes are discussed.  The focus is
on concentrations of criteria pollutants (particulates, SO2, NOa,
HC, and carbon monoxide [CO]).  See Chapter 10 for a qualitative
description of sulfates, other oxidants, fine particulates, long-
range visibility, plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition,
and cooling tower fogging and icing.

     In all cases, air quality impacts result primarily from the
operation rather than the construction of these facilities.  Con-
struction impacts are limited to periodic increases in particulate


     *Air quality impacts caused by the surface mines are expected
to be negligible in comparison with impacts caused by conversion
facilities.
                               731
-------
concentrations due to windblown dust.  These may cause periodic
violations of 24-hour ambient particulate standards.

A.  Power Plant Impacts

     Concentrations of criteria pollutants resulting from power
plant emissions depend largely on the extent of emission control
imposed.  Concentrations resulting from the hypothesized case
where control equipment removes 80 percent of the S02 and 99 per-
cent of the particulates are discussed first followed by a dis-
cussion of the effect of alternative emission controls, alterna-
tive stack heights, and alternative plant sizes.

(1)  Hypothesized Emission Control

     Table 9-5 summarizes the concentrations of four criteria
pollutants predicted to be produced by the power plant (3,000
MWe, 80 percent SO2 removal, and 99 percent particulate removal)
and its supporting surface mines.  These pollutants  (particulates,
SO , NO , and HC) are regulated by federal and North Dakota state
ambient air quality standards (also shown in Table 9-5).   This
information shows that the typical and peak concentrations asso-
ciated with the plant and with the plant and mine combination will
be well below federal ambient standards.  However, the North
Dakota 1-hour S02 standard will be violated, and the 1-hour N02
standard will be exceeded by a factor of 7.

     Table 9-5 also lists Prevention of Significant Deterioration
(PSD) standards, which are the allowable increments of pollutants
that can be added to areas of relatively clean air (i.e., areas
with air quality better than that allowed by ambient air stan-
dards) . 1  "Class I" is intended to designate the cleanest areas,
such as national parks and forests.  Typical concentrations of
the short-term (less than 24-hour)  averaging time for S02 from the
power plant and mine combination will exceed allowable Class I
increments.  In addition, peak concentrations attributable to the
power plant and the plant and mine combination will far exceed
the 24-hour and 3-hour Class I increments for SO2 (24-hour and
3-hour averaging times).  They will be exceeded by a factor
greater than 20.  The peak S02 concentration for the power plant
and the plant and mine combination will also cause the Class II
24-hour and 3-hour increments to be exceeded.

     Since the plant exceeds some Class I increments, it would
have to be located far enough away from any such areas so that
emissions will be diluted by atmospheric mixing to allowable con-
centrations prior to reaching any Class I area.  The distance re-
quired for this dilution (which varies by facility type,  size,
emissions controls, and meteorological conditions) in effect


          standards apply only to particulates and S02.

                               732
-------
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                                                733
-------
establishes a "buffer zone" around Class I areas.  Current
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)  regulations would require
a 75-mile buffer zone between the power plant and a Class I area
boundary.l  Since there are no current or potential Class I areas
within the power plant's "buffer zone," no Class I standards are
expected to be violated.

     In a worst-case situation, expected to occur infrequently,
short-term visibility may be reduced from the current background
visibility of 60 miles to between 2 and 5 miles, depending on the
amount of S02 converted to particulates in the atmosphere.2

(2)   Alternative Emission Controls

     The base case control for the Beulah power plant assumed a
S02  scrubber efficiency of 80 percent and an ESP efficiency of
99 percent.  The effect on ambient air concentrations of three
additional emission control alternatives is illustrated in Table
9-6.  These alternatives include a 95 percent efficient S02
scrubber in conjunction with a 99 percent efficient ESP; an 80
percent efficient S02 scrubber without an ESP; and an alternative
in which neither a scrubber nor an ESP are utilized.

     An examination of Table 9-6 reveals the utilization of 95
percent efficient S02 scrubber allows the plant to operate within
the Class I PSD increments for S02 emissions.  Removal of the
scrubber results in violations of both National Ambient Air
Quality Standards (NAAQS)  and Class II PSD increments for SO2.
Removal of the ESP also results in .violations of NAAQS and Class
II PSD increments for particulates.
     1Note that buffer zones around energy facilities will not
be symmetric circles.  This lack of symmetry is clearly illus-
trated by area "wind roses ," which show wind direction patterns
and strengths for various areas and seasons.  Hence, the direc-
tion of PSD areas from energy facilities will be critical to the
size of the buffer zone required.  Note also that the term buffer
zone is in disfavor.  We use it because we believe it accurately
describes the effect of PSD requirements.

     2Short-term visibility impacts were investigated using a
"box-type" dispersion model.  This particular model assumes that
all emissions occurring during a specified time interval are
uniformly mixed and confined in a box that is capped by a lid or
stable layer aloft.  A lid of 500 meters has been used through
the analyses.  S02 to sulfate conversion rates of 10 percent and
1 percent were modeled.

                               734
-------
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-------
(3)  Alternative Stack Heights

     In order to examine the effects of alternative stack heights
on ambient air quality in the Beulah scenario, worst-case disper-
sion modeling was carried out for a 300-foot stack (lowest stack
height consistent with good engineering practice), a 500-foot
stack (an average or most frequently used height), and a 1,000-
foot stack (a highest stack height).  The results of this examina-
tion are shown in Table 9-7.  Emissions from each stack are con-
trolled by an 80 percent efficient S02 scrubber and a 99 percent
efficient ESP.  The 500-foot case was given previously as part of
the base case.  A comparison of predicted emissions from the
Beulah power plant with applicable standards shows no violations
of Class II PSD increments for SOa if a 1,000-foot stack is used.

(4)  Alternative Plant Sizes

     The base case 3,000 MWe power plant at Beulah (500-foot
stack height, 80 percent SOz removal, and 99 percent total sus-
pended particulates [TSP]  removal) violates Class II PSD incre-
ments for 3-hour and 24-hour SOz emissions.  As shown in Table
9-8, a reduction in plant capacity to 2,250 MWe allows the plant
to meet the Class II PSD increment for 24-hour S02 emissions,
but a further reduction to 1,500 MWe is required to meet the
Class II PSD 3-hour S02 emission increment.

(5)  Summary of Power Plant Air Impacts

     During the construction phase of the Beulah power plant,
the frequency of current violations of NAAQS particulate standards
will probably increase.  Once the 3,000 MWe power plant is in
operation  (80 percent SOz removal, 99 percent TSP removal, and
500-foot stack height), Class II PSD increments for 3-hour and
24-hour S02 emissions will be violated.  If the plant were
equipped with a 95 percent efficient SOa scrubber or if capacity
were reduced to 1,500 MWe, all applicable standards could be met.

B.  Lurgi Impacts

     Typical and peak pollution concentrations are summarized for
the two Lurgi plants in Table 9-9.  Peak concentrations from
these new plants are not expected to cause violations of federal
or North Dakota state ambient air standards, and these facili-
ties will easily meet all Class II PSD increments.  The Class I
increment for 3-hour S0£ concentrations will be exceeded.  In
accordance with EPA regulations, this Class I PSD violation
would require a maximum Class I buffer zone of about 13.1 miles
for each plant.  Since there are no current or proposed Class I
areas within these buffer zones, no significant deterioration
problems are anticipated.
                                736
-------
  TABLE 9-7:  AIR  QUALITY IMPACTS RESULTING FROM ALTERNATIVE
              STACK  HEIGHTS AT BEULAH POWER PLANT

SELECTED STACK HEIGHTS
(feet)
300
500
1,000
APPLICABLE STANDARDS
NAAQS
(primary)
(secondary)
State Standards
Class II PSD Increments
MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION (yg/m3)

3-HR. S02
745
692
261


—
1,300
1,300
512

24-HR. S02
125
112
13


365
—
260
91

24-HR. TSP
29
26
3


260
150
150
37
   yg/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter
   HR. = hour
   SOa = sulfur dioxide
   TSP = total suspended particulates
NAAQS = National Ambient Air
       Quality Standards
PSD = prevention of significant
     deterioration
     In a worst-case  situation,  expected infrequently,  short-term
reductions  in visibility (background visibility is about  60  miles)
to between  15 and  52  miles  may occur, depending on the  amount of
S02 converted to particulates in the atmosphere.

C.  Synthane Impacts

     Table  9-10 gives typical and peak concentrations from the
Synthane gasification plant.   These data show violations  of  North
Dakota ambient air standards  for 1-hour N02 concentrations.   Peak
concentrations from the  Synthane plants will exceed Class  I  PSD
increments  for 24-hour and  3-hour S02 levels.  These violations
will require an 18.6-mile buffer zone between each plant  and any
designated  Class I area.

     In a worst-case  situation,  which is expected to occur infre-
quently, the background  visibility of 60 miles may be reduced to
between 2 and 11 miles,  depending on the amount of S02  converted
to particulates in the atmosphere.
                                737
-------
  TABLE 9-8:
AIR QUALITY IMPACTS  RESULTING FROM ALTERNATIVE
PLANT SIZES AT BEULAH  POWER PLANT
UNIT
SIZE (MWe)
750



NUMBER
OF UNITS
1
2
3
4
PLANT
CAPACITY
(MWe)
750
1,500
2,250
3,000
APPLICABLE STANDARDS
NAAQS
(primary)
(secondary)
State Standards
Class II PSD Increments
MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION (yg/m3)
3-HR. S02
173
346
519
692


—
1,300
1,300
512
24-HR. S02
28
56
84
112


365
—
260
91
24-HR. TSP
6.5
13.0
19.5
26.0


260
150
150
37
yg/m3  = micrograms per cubic meter
MWe =  megawatt-electric
HR. =  hour
S02 =  sulfur dioxide
                    TSP = total suspended particulates
                    NAAQS = National Ambient Air Quality
                          Standards
                    PSD = prevention of significant
                         deterioration
D.  Scenario Impacts

(1)  To 1980

     Construction of  the  hypothetical power plant and  Lurgi
gasification plant will begin in this period, with the power plant
becoming fully operational by 1980.  A slight reduction in long-
range visibility from the current average of 60 miles  at Bismarck,
North Dakota, is expected once the power plant becomes operational.
The town of Beulah is projected to. grow from a 1-975  population of
1,350 to 2,300 by 1980.   This increase will contribute to increases
in pollution concentrations from urban sources.  Table 9-11 shows
predicted concentrations  of the five criteria pollutants measured
at the center of the  town and at a "rural" point, 3  miles from the
center of the town.   When concentrations from urban  sources only
are added to background levels, no federal or North  Dakota state
ambient standards will be exceeded.
                                738
-------
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                           741
-------
(2)  To 1990

     One Lurgi gasification plant will become operational in
1982.  A second Lurgi plant will be constructed and become opera-
tional in 1987.  Maximum pollutant concentrations resulting from
the interaction of power plant and Lurgi plumes at a 5-mile
separation distance violate Class II PSD increments for 24-hour
and 3-hour S02 emissions.  If the wind blows directly from one
plant to the other, plumes will interact.  However, resulting
concentrations would be less than those produced by either plant
and mine combination (which are located much closer together)
when the wind blows from the plant to the mine (peak plant/mine
concentration) .  Had the plants been sited closer together, the
probability of interactions would increase.  A slight reduction
in long-range visibility from the current average of 60 miles at
Bismarck, North Dakota, is expected.

     Beulah's population is predicted to grow to 4,000 by 1985,
then to decline to 2,200 by 1990.  The concentrations of urban
pollutants for 1985 are shown in Table 9-11.  The 3-hour HC
concentrations predicted for 1985 will violate federal primary
and secondary standards as well as North Dakota air quality
standards.1  All other criteria pollutant concentrations are
expected to be well within established standards.

(3)  To 2000

     Two Synthane gasification plants will become operational be-
tween 1990 and 2000.  Interactions between the Synthane plants,
power plant, and Lurgi plants will cause increases in annual peak
concentrations.  However, these increases are expected to be rel-
atively small (less than 3 micrograms per cubic meter [yg/m3]  for
particulates and S02 and less than 15 yg/m3 for NOa) and should
not violate any standards.

     When all of these facilities come on line, visibility is
expected to decrease from the current average of 60 miles in the
Beulah region to 54 miles.  At a hypothetical 5-mile separation
distance, maximum pollutant concentrations resulting from inter-
action of power plant and Synthane plant plumes will violate
Class II PSD increments for 24-hour and 3-hour SO2 emissions.

     During the 1990-2000 decade, the town of Beulah will again
record an increase and then a decrease in population.  The max-
imum population will reach 4,800 in 1995, and increased pollution
concentrations will be associated with this growth  (Table 9-11).
As was the case in 1985, only 3-hour HC levels will exceed any
     1Ambient HC standards are violated regularly in mo'St urban
areas.

                               742
-------
federal or state ambient air standards.  All other pollutant
concentrations fall well within existing air quality standards.

E.  Other Air Impacts

     Additional categories of potential air impacts have been
qualitatively examined; that is, an attempt has been made to
identify sources of pollutants and how energy development may
affect levels of these pollutants during the next 25 years.
These categories are sulfates, oxidants , fine particulates , long-
range visibility, plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition,
cooling tower fogging and icing, trace element emissions, and
fugitive dust emissions.1  Although there are likely to be local
impacts as a consequence of these pollutants, both the available
data and knowledge of impact mechanisms are insufficient to allow
quantitative, site-specific analyses.  Thus, these are discussed
in a more general, qualitative manner in Chapter 10.

9.2.4  Summary of Air impacts

     Five new facilities (a power plant, two Lurgi , and two Syn-
thane gasification plants)  are projected for the Beulah area.   To
just meet NSPS, the 3,000 MWe power plant would require 99 percent
particulate, 48 percent SO2 , and 38 percent NOX removal.  However,
at this level of control, ambient air standards for SOa would be
violated.  With 80 percent SOa and 99 percent particulate removal,
Class II PSD increments for 3- and 24-hour SOa would be exceeded,
and North Dakota's 1-hour ambient standards for NOX and SC-2 would
be violated.  In order to meet these Class II increments and North
Dakota standards, the plant would have to be equipped with a 95
percent efficient scrubber or plant capacity would have to be re-
duced to 1,500 MWe.

     Typical and peak pollutant concentrations from the Lurgi and
Synthane gasification plants and their associated mines will not
violate any federal ambient standards or any Class II PSD incre-
ments.  The Lurgi plants meet North Dakota ambient air standards,
but the Synthane plants are likely to violate North Dakota's
1-hour N02 standard.

     If all five facilities are constructed according to the
hypothesized schedule, population increases in Beulah will add to
existing pollutant levels.  Violations of HC standards may occur
by 1990 due solely to urban sources.
     JNo analytical information is currently available on the
source and formation of nitrates.  See Hazardous Materials Advi-
sory Committee.  Nitrogenous Compounds in the Environment, EPA-
SAB-73-001.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1973.

                               743
-------
9.3  WATER IMPACTS

9.3.1  Introduction

     The main source of water in the Beulah area is the Upper
Missouri River  (see Figure 9-3).  Water is available either  from
the rivers in the area or from Lake Sakakawea.  Although of  lesser
importance, the Knife River is also capable of supplying water to
some energy developments.  Annual rainfall averages about 15
inches, and annual snowfall averages about 36 inches.1

     This section identifies the sources and uses of water required
for energy development, the residuals that will be generated, and
the water availability and quality impacts that are likely to
result.

9.3.2  Existing Conditions

A.  Groundwater

     The Beulah area is located on the southeastern edge of  the
Williston Basin, a large sedimentary basin encompassing much of
western North Dakota and eastern Montana.  Groundwater is avail-
able from deep bedrock aquifers, shallow sandstone aquifers,
lignite aquifers, and alluvial aquifers in the area.   Deeper,
potentially highly productive aquifers, such as the Dakota or
the Madison, are important regionally but apparently do not con-
tain potable water in the Beulah area.

     Deep bedrock aquifers include the Fox Hills and basal Hell
Creek aquifer and the upper Hell Creek and lower Cannonball-Ludlow
aquifer,  with the former being deeper.   Wells in the lower aqui-
fers are as much as 1,500 feet deep and yield up to 150 gpm,  while
the upper aquifer wells are about 500-800 feet deep with maximum
yields of 100 gpm.  The water quality of the two aquifers is  quite
similar;  both contain predominately sodium bicarbonate with a TDS
content of about 1,500 milligrams per liter (mg/£).   (The U.S.
Geological Survey defines 1,000-3,000 mg/£ as slightly saline.)
Both aquifers are currently tapped for domestic livestock uses,
with the lower aquifer also being used for municipal supplies.

     The lower Tongue River Formation aquifer is in shallow sand-
stone and is separated from the deeper Hell Creek-Cannonball-
Ludlow aquifer by a considerable thickness of relatively


     ''The moisture content of one inch of rain is equal to approx-
imately 15 inches of snow.

     2Croft, M.G.  Ground-Water Resources, Mercer and Oliver Coun-
ties, North Dakota, North Dakota Geological Survey Bulletin 56,
Part III.   Grand Forks, N.D.:  North Dakota Geological Survey,
1974.

                               744
-------
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745
-------
impermeable siltstone and claystone beds.  The formation is only
about 150 feet thick, and well yields are only about 5 gpm.  The
water contains sodium bicarbonate with a TDS of 1,400-1,700 mg/£.
The aquifer is tapped by wells for domestic and stock purposes.

     Lignite bed aquifers are also used for domestic and stock
purposes.  Well yields are generally less than 10 gpm, and TDS
concentration is generally over 1,000 mg/Jl.

     Alluvial aquifers are present along the intermittent and
perennial streams in the Beulah area.  The most important of
these are the Knife River and Missouri River aquifers and those
along Goodman, Antelope, Elm, and Square Butte Creeks.  Thick-
nesses range generally from 100 to 200 feet.  The alluvial
aquifers are the most productive in the Oliver County area, gen-
erally yielding more than 500 gpm.1  Also, water quality is gen-
erally better than in the bedrock aquifers.  TDS concentration
ranges from about 500 to about 1,700 mg/&.  Water from alluvial
aquifers is used for a wide variety of purposes.

B.  Surface Water

     The illustrative energy facilities in the Beulah area are
located generally south of the eastern portion of Lake Sakakawea
in the Upper Missouri drainage basin.  Garrison Dam, which is
near Riverdale, impounds the Missouri River to form Lake Sakaka-
wea.  The lake is used for flood control, irrigation, power, re-
creation, navigation, and as a water supply source for municipal
and industrial users.  Reservoir characteristics are shown in
Table 9-12.

     Flows in the Missouri River are greatly affected by condi-
tions in the Yellowstone River Basin, which supplies about one-
half of the average annual flow at Garrison Dam.  Pertinent data
for flow at Bismarck are shown in Table 9-13.

     Another significant perennial river in the Beulah area is
the Knife River, which runs east through Beulah and Hazen to its
confluence with the Missouri River below Garrison Dam.  The Knife
River is part of the Western Dakota Subbasin.  Stream flow and
other characteristics of the Knife River are shown in Table 9-13.
Available data on local creeks are also shown in Table 9-13.  The
consumptive water uses reported for this area in 1975 are shown
in Table 9-14.  The Corps of Engineers has estimated that water
will be available to supply both irrigation and energy users
             M.G.  Ground-Water Resources, Mercer and Oliver
Counties, North Dakota, North Dakota Geological Survey Bulletin
56, Part III.  Grand Forks, N.D.:  North Dakota Geological
Survey, 1974.

                               746
-------
     TABLE 9-12:  RESERVOIR CHARACTERISTICS—LAKE SAKAKAWEA
 Location of Garrison Dam *


 Contributing drainage area

 Approximate length

 Maximum width

 Average width

 Maximum operating pool
   elevation and area
  Inactive storage between  1,775
   and 1,673  feet above mean
   sea level

  Total gross  storage between
   1,854 and  1,673  feet above
   mean sea level

  Maximum discharge
 Minimum discharge


 Average discharge


 Power production plant
   capacity
   dependable capacity

 Surface fluctuationb
Near Riverdale, North Dakota at
river mile 1,389.9

180,050     square miles

    178     miles

     14     miles

      3     miles


  1,775     feet above mean sea
            level;
129,000     acres
            million acre-feet
     24.4   million acre-feet

348,000     cubic feet per
            second

  1,320     cubic feet per
            second

 21,500     cubic feet per
            second
    500     megawatt-electric

    302     megawatt-electric

     15     feet average
     30     feet maximum in
            recent years
 Missouri Basin Inter-Agency Committee.  The Missouri River Basin
Comprehensive Framework Study.  Denver, Colo.:  U.S., Department
of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, 1971.

 Northern Great Plains Resources Program, Water Work Group.  Water
Quality Subgroup Report, Discussion Draft.  Denver, Colo.:  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, Region VIII, 1974.

CU.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Upper
Missouri Region.  Final Environmental Statement:  Initial Stage,
Garrison Diversion Unit, Pick-Sloan Missouri Basin Program, North
Dakota.  Billings, Mont.:  Bureau of Reclamation, 1975.
                                747
-------
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-------
      TABLE 9-14:
CONSUMPTIVE WATER USES IN THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS SUBBASIN
                    USE
                 WATER REQUIREMENT
                    (acre-ft/yr)
          Irrigation
          Livestock
          Municipal and Industrial
          Mining
          Rural Domestic
          Steam Electric
          Manufacturing

          Total
                      555,000
                       68,000
                       28,000
                       23,000
                       16,000
                        9,000
                        4,000

                      703,000
         acre-ft/yr = acre-feet per year

         Source:  Missouri River Basin Commission.  The
         Missouri River Basin Water Resources Plan, Final
         Draft Report.Omaha,Nebr.:Missouri River
         Basin Commission, 1977, p. 151.


through the year 2020. 1  However, releases to sustain navigation
may be curtailed under some conditions.

     Water quality in Lake Sakakawea is relatively good.  Mea-
surements have been made both in the lake and downstream of
Garrison Dam.  Some of these data are reported in Table 9-15 so
that a specific water user can make an evaluation of the suit-
ability of local water quality as it pertains to a particular
use.  Water quality data for the Knife River is scarce, although
there are known high silt and nutrient loads.  The nutrients that
accompany the silt are related to agricultural fertilizer uses.
These nutrients increase aquatic plant growth which reduces fish
populations.  Because of these conditions, there is almost no
sport fishing in the upper Knife River Basin, although the lower
river is a good sport fishery.  Water quality parameters have been
compiled for area streams from several locations and are shown in
Table 9-15.
     ^.S., Army, Corps of Engineers, Missouri River Division,
Reservoir Control Center.  Missouri River Main Stem Reservoirs
Long Range Regulation Studies, Series 1-74.
of Engineers, 1974.
                          Omaha,  Nebr.:   Corps
                               749
-------


















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     The availability of water to all the illustrative energy
facilities is largely controlled by interstate compacts that
govern water use in areas above Lake Sakakawea.1  Since no pro-
vision has generally been made in these compacts to govern the
location of the withdrawal of water by the pwner, allotments can
be accounted for at downstream locations.  For instance, Yellow-
stone River water currently allotted to Wyoming but not being
used within that state could be withdrawn as far downstream as,
for example, Lake Oahe and pumped back to Wyoming.  Yet assuming
that some allocated water must be passed through, there should be
sufficient water available in Lake Sakakawea to supply the scenario
energy developments.

     A permit for withdrawal of water from Lake Sakakawea must be
obtained from the North Dakota State Water Commission.  There has
been a moratorium on the issuing of permits from Lake Sakakawea
that was in effect until July 1977.  This moratorium was insti-
tuted to allow the legislature to restructure the water alloca-
tion program.   The availability of water will be decided by the
state after allowing for currently allocated water, including the
rights of the Bureau of Reclamation to water for the Garrison
Diversion Unit.

9.3.3  Factors Producing Impacts

     The water requirements of and effluents from energy facili-
ties cause water impacts.  These requirements and effluents are
identified in this section for each type of energy facility.
Associated population increases also increase municipal water
demand and sewage effluent; these are presented in Section 9.3.4
for the scenario which includes all facilities constructed
according to the scenario schedule.

A.  Water Requirements of Energy Facilities

     The water requirements for energy facilities hypothesized
in the Beulah area are shown in Table 9-16.  Two sets of data
are presented.  The Energy Resource Development System (ERDS)
data are based on secondary sources including impact statements,
Federal Power Commission docket filings, and recently published
            Fourche River Compact of 1943, 58 Stat. 94 (1944);
Yellowstone River Compact of 1950, 65 Stat. 663 (1951).
                               751
-------
TABLE  9-16:
WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR ENERGY  FACILITIES AT BEULAH
 (acre-feet  per  year)
TECHNOLOGY3
Power Generation
Gasification
Lurgi
Synthane

Gasification Facilities
Power Plant
ERDSb
WET COOLING
29,400

6,705
9,090
WPAC
COMBINATION OF WET AND DRY COOLING
HIGH WET
23,884

4,891
7,671
INTERMEDIATE WET
5,494

3,307
5,878
MINIMUM WET
NC

2,853
5,520
Cost range in which indicated cooling
technology is most economic
(dollars per thousand gallons)
NC
NC
<1.50
0.65-5.90
1.50-2.00
>3. 65-5. 90
>2.00
NC
  EROS = Energy Resource Development System
  WPA = Water Purification  Associates
  NC = not considered
                                       < = less than
                                       > = greater than
   These values assume an annual  load  factor of 75 percent in the case of the 3,000
  megawatt-electric power plant and 90 percent in the case of a 250 million cubic
  feet per day Lurgi and Synthane  facilities.
   White, Irvin L.,  et al.   Energy From the West:
  Systems Report.   Washington,  D.C.:  U.S.
  coming.
                                 Energy Resource Development
                          Environmental Protection Agency,  forth-
  cGold, Harris, et al.   Water  Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and
  Synthetic Fuel Plants  in the  Western United States.  Washington, D.C.:   U.S.,
  Environmental Protection Agency,  1977.

   Combinations of wet and wet/dry  cooling were obtained by examining the economics
  of cooling alternatives for the turbine condensers and gas compressor interstage
  coolers.  In the high  wet case, these are all wet cooled; in the intermediate case,
  wet cooling handles 10 percent of the load on the turbine condensers and all of the
  load in the interstage coolers; in  the minimum practical wet case, wet cooling
  handles 10 percent of  the cooling load on the turbine condensers and 50 percent of
  the load in the interstage coolers.  For power plants, only variations on the steam
  turbine condenser load were considered practical, thus, only high wet and inter-
  mediate wet cases were examined.
                                        752
-------
data accumulations.1  The Water Purification Associates data are
from a study on minimum water use requirements and take into
account opportunities to recycle water on-site as well as the
moisture content of the coal being used and local meteorological
conditions.2  As indicated in Table 9-16, the 3,000 MWe coal-
fired power plant is expected to require the most water of all
hypothesized energy facilities in the Beulah scenario (23,884
acre-feet per year  [acre-ft/yr], assuming high wet cooling).  The
Lurgi and Synthane gasification facilities will require 4,891 and
7,671 acre-feet per day (assuming high wet cooling at the expected
load factor of 90 percent).   If intermediate wet cooling technology
is used (a combination of wet and dry cooling), water requirements
for energy facilities could be reduced by 77 percent for the power
plant, 30 percent for the Lurgi facility, and 23 percent for the
Synthane facility.  From an economic viewpoint, the decision of
which cooling technology to use often depends on the availability
and price of water.  For the power plant, high wet cooling is
most economical if water costs less than $3.65 to $5.90 per
thousand gallons.  Intermediate wet cooling would save money if
water costs rise above the $3.65 to $5.90 range.  For synthetic
fuel facilities, when water costs rise above $1.50 per thousand
gallons, the intermediate wet cooling technology saves money.
Additional water savings of from 7 to 14 percent could be realized
for synthetic fuel facilities if minimum wet cooling is utilized.
This technology would be economically advantageous if water costs
more than $2.00 per thousand gallons.  If water costs only $0.25
per thousand gallons and intermediate wet cooling is used in order
to conserve water, the increased cost of synthetic fuels produced
in the Beulah scenario would be about 1 cent per million Btu of
fuel produced.  However, in the case of electricity, the added
cost of intermediate wet cooling would be 0.1 to 0.2 cent per
kilowatt-hour (kWh).

     The manner in which water is used by the energy facilities
is shown in Figure 9-4.  As indicated there, the greatest use for
all energy conversion technologies is for cooling.  Solids disposal


     :The ERDS Report is based on data drawn from:  University of
Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program.  Energy Alternatives:
A Comparative Analysis.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing
Office, 1975; and Radian Corporation.  A Western Regional Energy
Development Study, 3 vols. and Executive Summary.  Austin, Tex.:
Radian Corporation, 1975.   These data are published in White,
Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West:  Energy Resource Develop-
ment Systems Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Pro-
tection Agency, forthcoming.

     2Gold, Harris, et al.  Water Requirements for Steam-Electric
Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United
States.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,
April 1977.  See Appendix B.

                               753
-------
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               ERDS
                   WPA-H
                             ERDS
Cooling Tower Evaporation |	|

Consumed in  the Process   Boftl

Solids Disposal and  Other
       •For Lurgi Gasification
       there is a net gain of
       about 740 acre-feet/year
       of water in the process.
                                       ERDS
                                                            WPA-M*
              Power           Synthane
              Generation     Gasification
              (3,000 MWe)    (250xl06  scf/day)
                                        Lurgi
                                        Gasification
                                       (250xl06  scf/day)
      FIGURE  9-4:
           WATER CONSUMPTION  FOR ENERGY FACILITIES
           IN THE BEULAH SCENARIO
ERDS = Energy Resource Development  System
WPA-H = Water Purification Associates--High Wet Cooling
WPA-I = Water Purification Associates—Intermediate Wet Cooling
WPA-M = Water Purification Associates—Minimum Wet Cooling
MWe = megawatt-electric
scf/day =  standard cubic feet per day

Source:  The ERDS data is from White, Irvin L., et al.   Energy
From the West:   Energy Resource  Development Systems Report.   Wash-
ington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental  Protection Agency,  forthcoming.
The WPA data is from Gold, Harris,  et al.   Water Requirements for
Steam-Electric Power Generation  and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the
Western United States.  Washington, D.C.:   U.S., Environmental
Protection Agency, 1977.
                                 754
-------
consumes comparable quantities of water for all technologies,
varying primarily as a function of the ash content of the feed-
stock coal.

     The water requirement associated with mining includes dust
control,- handling, crushing, and service as well as reclamation.
Reclamation requirements have been calculated, assuming 5 years
of irrigation at a rate of 9 inches per year, and are given in
Table 9-17.  Water requirements for dust control are expected to
range from 240 acre-ft/yr at the mine for the Lurgi plant to 400
acre-ft/yr at the mine for the power plant.  Water to meet reclama-
tion and dust control demands will come from mine dewatering
activities whenever possible and will be supplemented with surface
water if needed.

     The first Lurgi facility, the power plant, and the two Syn-
thane facilities will obtain their water through a pipeline from
Lake Sakakawea because it is the largest, most reliable local
source.  Water will be withdrawn from an intake system below the
minimum operating level of the lake and pumped to on-site reser-
voirs.  The second Lurgi facility will use water released from
Lake Sakakawea and withdrawn from its intake on the Missouri
River downstream from Garrison Dam.  As with the other facilities,
the water will be pumped from the river to an on-site reservoir.
Alternatively, the second Lurgi facility could use an upstream
reservoir on the Knife River, such as the proposed Bronco Reser-
voir,1 as a water source.

B.  Effluents from Energy Facilities

     The quantities of solid effluents from the energy facilities
hypothesized for the Beulah area are shown in Table 9-18.  The
largest effluent quantities are from flue gas desulfurization (FGD)
and ash disposal.  Since the lignite in this area has only 6 per-
cent ash,  disposal requires less water than for coals with higher
ash contents.  The quantity of FGD effluent depends mainly on the
sulfur content of the coal (0.8 percent by weight on a dry basis)
and the scrubber efficiency (80 percent removal assumed).

     As indicated in Table 9-18, the synthetic' fuels facilities
(Lurgi and Synthane)  and the 3,000 MWe coal-fired power plant
will produce solid effluents in the Beulah scenario.  The highest
volume of solid waste will come from the power plant (more than
3,800 tons of solid wastes per day).  The Lurgi and Synthane
plants each will generate about 2,200 tons of solid wastes per
day.  The combined total of solid wastes from all facilities will
     ^Jorthern Great Plains Resources Program.  Water Work Group
Report.  Billings, Mont.:  U.S., Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Reclamation, 1974.

                                755
-------
        TABLE  9-17:  WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR RECLAMATION3
MINE
Power Plant
Lurgi (2)
Syn thane (2)
Total
ACRES
DISTURBED
PER YEAR
840
1,000
1,000

MAXIMUM
ACRES UNDER
IRRIGATION
4,200
5,000
5,000

WATER
REQUIREMENT
(acre-ft/yr)
3,150
3,750
3,750
10,650
      acre-ft/yr = acre-feet per year

      ra
       Assumes 9 inches per year for 5 years.
be more than 12,600 tons per day (tpd).   The largest amount of
dissolved and dry solids is expected to come from the power plant
(74 and 2,138 tpd).  The Lurgi plants each will produce about
2,000 tpd of wet solids.

     Dissolved solids are present in the ash blowdown stream, the
demineralizer waste stream, and the FGD stream.1  The principal
constituents of wastewater which appear as dissolved solids are
calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate, and chlorine.

     Wet solids from the electric power and Lurgi or Synthane gas-
ification facilities are in the form of flue gas sludge, bottom
ash, and cooling water treatment waste sludge.   Calcium carbonate
(CaCO3)  and calcium sulfate (CaSOO  are the primary constituents
of flue gas sludge.  The bottom ash is primarily oxides of alumi-
num and silicon.  CaCOs is the principal constituent of the cool-
ing water treatment waste sludge.  In all cases, the amount of
cooling water treatment waste is very small, compared to the bot-
tom ash and flue gas sludge.


     *Note that all coal conversion processes generate  electric-
ity on-site, thus flue gas cleaning, ash handling, and demineral-
ization are required for all.  Demineralization is a method of
preparing water for use in boilers; it produces a waste stream
composed of chemicals present in the source water.  The ash blow-
down stream is the water used to remove bottom ash from the boiler.
Bottom ash removal is done via a wet sluicing system using cooling
tower blowdown water.  Thus, the dissolved solids content of
that stream is composed of chemicals from the ash and cooling
water.
                               756
-------
           TABLE 9-18:
EFFLUENTS FROM COAL CONVERSION
PROCESSES AT BEULAHa
FACILITY TYPE
Lurgi
(250 MMcfd)
Syn thane
(250 MMcfd)
Electric Power
(3,000 MWe)
SOLIDSb (tpd)
DISSOLVED
32
29

74
WET
1,986
484

1,634
DRY
251
1,663

2,138
TOTAL
2,269
2,176

3,846
WATER IN
EFFLUENT0
(acre-ft/yr)
807
975

1,978
tpd = tons per day
acre-ft/yr = acre-feet per year
          MMcfd = million cubic feet per
                  day
          MWe = megawatt-electric
 These data are from Radian Corporation.  The Assessment of Resid-
ual Disposal for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Synthetic
Fuel Plants in the Western United States.  EPA Contract No. 68-01-
1916.  Austin, Tex.:  Radian Corporation, 1978.  The Radian Cor-
poration report extends and is based on earlier analyses conducted
by Water Purification Associates and reported in Gold, Harris, et
al.  Water Requirements for Steam-Electric Power Generation and Syn-
thetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States.  Washington, D.C.:
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977.

 These values are given for a day when the facility is operating
at full load.  In order to obtain yearly values, these numbers
must be multiplied by 365 days and by the average load factor.
Load factors are 90 percent for synthetic fuels facilities and 75
percent for power plants.  The values given as solids do not in-
clude the weight of the water in which the solids are suspended
or dissolved.

cThe values of water discharged are annual and take into account
the load factor.
                               757
-------
     Dry solid waste produced by the coal conversion processes
is primarily fly ash composed of oxides of aluminum, silicon, and
iron.  The water in the effluent stream (Table 9-18) accounts for
between 9 (power plant) and 16 (Lurgi)  percent of the total water
requirements of the individual energy facilities (data in Table
9-18 compared with that in Table 9-16) .  Dissolved and wet solids
are sent to evaporative holding ponds and later deposited in land-
fills.  Dry solids are treated with water to prevent dusting and
deposited in a landfill.l

9.3,4  Impacts

     This section describes water impacts which result from the
mines, conversion facilities  (a power plant, two Lurgi plants,
and two Synthane plants),  and from a scenario which includes con-
struction of all facilities according to the hypothesized sce-
nario schedule.  The water requirements and impacts associated
with expected population increases are included in the scenario
impact description.

A.  Surface Mine Impacts

     Surface mining will affect the quantity and quality of both
groundwater and surface water.  The chief groundwater effect of
opening the mines will be  the disruption of shallow bedrock
aquifers in the Tongue River formation.   Both sandstone aquifers
and lignite beds will be destroyed by the removal of the lignite.
Excavation will disrupt the flow patterns of aquifers encountered,
requiring mine dewatering  which may lead to excessive drawdowns
and aquifer depletion.  Aquifers in the overburden cannot be
restored to premining conditions by replacement of the overburden
during reclamation.

     Mining operations may result in oxidation which could cause
the generation of acid waters and the release of dissolved con-
taminants which would infiltrate the substrata below and adjacent
to the mines.  The infiltrating contaminated water could in turn
pollute local shallow bedrock aquifers.

     These groundwater depletion and contamination problems will
be manifested in local wells, springs,  and seeps.  Aquifer deple-
tion will lower water levels in wells,  and some wells may dry up
or have to be deepened.  Depletion may also cause flow reductions
in springs, and some springs may dry up.  Groundwater contamina-
tion from leaching of the  overburden could ruin wells and/or
springs.  Most of the impacts will be in consolidated bedrock
aquifers, but nearby alluvial aquifers could also be affected.


     *The environmental problems associated with solid waste
disposal in holding ponds  and in landfills are discussed in
Chapter 10.

                               758
-------
These effects would be most pronounced where alluvial aquifers
are recharged by base flow from bedrock aquifers.  The streams
associated with the alluvial aquifers may also receive contamin-
ated water as base flow from bedrock or alluvial aquifers.

     Runoff from the mine area will be high in suspended solids
from erosion of open banks, spoil piles, and the mine floor and
will contain higher than ambient concentrations of the trace
metals associated with the coal.  The greater part of the con-
taminated runoff will remain in or enter the mine area either by
natural flow or through runoff retention structures.  No con-
taminated runoff will be allowed to directly enter a natural
stream.  About 83 acre-ft/yr of runoff could be trapped by each
1,000 acres of active mine or reclamation area.1  If there is a
large excess of water from mine dewatering and runoff, it will
be treated and used as make-up for process water at the associated
energy conversion facility.

B.  Energy Conversion Facilities Impacts

     Water impacts may be divided into those occurring during
construction and during operation and those occurring because of
the water requirements of facilities and because of effluents
from the facilities.

     Construction activities at the facilities will remove vege-
tation and disturb the soil, affecting surface-water quality by
increasing the sediment load of local runoff.  Additionally, the
equipment used during construction will require maintenance areas
and petroleum products storage facilities.  Areas for the storage
of other construction-related materials, such as aggregate for a
concrete batch plant, will be required as well.  All these facil-
ities have the potential for contaminating runoff.  Runoff control
methods will be instituted at all these potential sources.  Run-
off will be channeled to a holding pond for settling, reuse, and
evaporation.  Because the supply of water to this pond is inter-
mittent, evaporation may claim most of the water.  Some of the
water may be used for dust control.

     Power plant construction will cause additional environmental
effects where the water supply pipeline crosses the Knife River;
construction activities will require that parts of the river be
dammed temporarily.  Increased silt loads and possible erosion of
        is  estimate  corresponds to 1 inch per year of runoff.

                               759
-------
stream banks due to increased velocities at the dam site may
result.l

     Operation of the facilities may have some impact on local
groundwater systems.  However, it will not contribute to local
aquifer depletion because process and cooling water for these
facilities will be provided by Lake Sakakawea.  The range of
water requirements for the facilities, if high wet cooling is
used, is 23,884 acre-ft/yr for the power plant, 4,891 acre-ft/yr
for each Lurgi plant, and 7,671 acre-ft/yr for each Synthane plant
(Table 9-16).  These ranges in water requirements represent 0.5 to
2.4 percent of the minimum discharge from Lake Sakakawea (956,340
acre-ft/yr)2 and 0.03 to 0.2 percent of the annual average dis-
charge (15,576,750 acre-ft/yr).

     The effluents from the energy conversion facilities likely
to have the greatest impact on local groundwater supplies are
those that will be ponded on the facility sites.  Pond liners
for the effluent storage ponds are designed to prevent leakage
during the lifetime of the energy conversion facility, but they
may leak because of failure, inadequate design, or improper main-
tenance.  In the event of pond liner leakage, contaminants could
enter the substrata either by direct infiltration of contaminated
liquids or by leaching of solids or semisolids by natural precip-
itation.  Local groundwater contamination may or may not occur,
depending on the composition of the fluids or leachate and on the
renovative capacity (filtration and absorption) of the substrata.
This capacity will vary according to local geologic conditions.

     The Lurgi and Synthane facilities will produce solid wastes
which will be trucked to disposal sites located in mined-out
areas.  Decomposition and leaching of these wastes could accentu-
ate the contamination problems described earlier for the mines.
In addition, there will be on-site ponds similar to those at the
power plant for toxic, nontoxic, and sanitary wastes.  Because of
the provisions of Public Law 92-500, there will be no planned
continuous or intermittent discharge of pollutants to surface
waters.

C.  Scenario Impacts

     Water impacts resulting from interactions among the hypothe-
sized facilities and their associated mines and water impacts


     Alternatively, the pipeline may be attached to the Highway
49 Bridge that crosses the Knife River south of Beulah.  Recon-
naissance of the area would be necessary to determine if this
alternative is viable.

     2Value obtained from Table 9-12 using the conversion factor
of 1 cubic foot per second equals 724.5 acre-ft/yr.

                                760
-------
resulting from associated population increases are discussed in
this section.

     Water requirements for direct use by these hypothesized
energy facilities  (assuming high wet cooling) increase from
approximately 24,000 acre-ft/yr in 1980 when the power plant is
operating to 33,665 acre-ft/yr in 1990 when the power plant and
Lurgi plants are operating and to 49,008 acre-ft/yr in 2000 when
all the plants are operating.  Additional water, about 23 percent
of the water requirement for the facilities, in 2000 may be re-
quired for reclamation purposes.

     As shown in Table 9-19, population increases associated
with energy development will also require additional water
supplies.   In the scenario area, municipal water use will total
4,645 acre-ft/yr by the year 2000, with intermediate demands re-
lated to labor-intensive construction as high as 4,000 acre-ft/yr.
Currently, water demands are being met with groundwater at all
municipalities except Bismarck and Mandan, which use surface
water from the Missouri River.  Permits are required from the
North Dakota State Water Commission to withdraw any additional
municipal water.

     Wastewater from the energy facilities which will be impounded
in evaporation ponds will average 2,000 acre-ft/yr by 1980, 3,600
acre-ft/yr by 1990, and 5,500 acre-ft/yr by 2000 (Table 9-18).

     Rural populations are assumed to use individual, on-site
waste disposal facilities (septic tanks and drain fields), and
urban populations will require waste treatment facilities.  The
wastewater generated by the population increases associated with
energy development will amount to 1.25 million gallons per day
(MMgpd)  by 1980, 1.56 MMgpd by 1990, and 3.30 MMgpd by 2000 as
shown in Table 9-20.  During most of that time, the Bismarck-
Mandan area will account for about 80 percent of the totals, but
construction demand peaks will cause some fluctuations.  Beulah
will require increased capacity of 0.34 MMgpd by 1995, more than
double its average over the 25-year period under consideration.
Similary, Zap peaks in 1985 and Hazen in 1995.  Current wastewater
treatment practices in these communities are shown in Table 9-21.

     Based on the current treatment facilities capacities, all
the communities in the scenario will require new facilities to
accommodate new population due to energy developments.  In
Bismarck-Mandan, facilities will not have to expand immediately
but will be needed before 2000.  New facilities must use "best
practicable" waste treatment technologies to conform to 1983
     Estimates do not include population increases caused by
secondary industries.

                               761
-------
TABLE 9-19:
EXPECTED WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR INCREASED
POPULATION3
(acre-feet per year)
TOWN
Beulah
Golden Valley
Hazen
Stanton
Zap
Center
Fort Clark
Hannover
Bismarck-Mandan
Mercer County/
Ruralb
Oliver County/
Ruralb
1980
133
6
78
34
25
53
4
15
1,344
11
20
1985
371
14
162
39
74
39
7
, 3
1,708
3
24
1990
119
8
106
35
13
39
6
3
1,834
16
29
1995
483
17
400
81
46
60
13
7
2,842
21
33
2000
147
15
190
85
32
81
15
8
4,032
25
38
  Above 1975 base level; based on 125 gallons  per  capita
 per day.

  Based on 80 gallons per capita per day.
TABLE 9-20:
EXPECTED WASTEWATER FLOWS FROM INCREASED
POPULATION3
(million gallons per day)
TOWN
Beulah
Golden Valley
Hazen
Stanton
Zap
Center
Fort Clark
Hannover
Bismarck-Mandan
1980
0.10
0
0.06
0.02
0.02
0.04
0
0.01
1
1985
0.27
0.01
0.12
0.03
0.05
0.03
0.01
0
1.22
1990
0.09
0.01
0.08
0.03
0.01
0.03
0
0
1.31
1995
0.34
0.01
0.29
0.06
0.03
0.04
0.01
0.01
2.03
20QO
0.11
0.01
0.14
0.06
0.02
0.06
0.01
0.01
2.88
  Above 1975 base level; based on 100 gallons per capita
 per day.
                         762
-------
      TABLE 9-21:
 WASTEWATER TREATMENT CHARACTERISTICS OF
 COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY BEULAH SCENARIO
       TOWN
    TYPE OF TREATMENT
HYDRAULIC LOADING
   Beulah

   Golden Valley


   Hazen


   Stanton

   Zap

   Center
   Fort Clark

   Hannover
   Bismarck
   Mandan
2-cell waste stabilization
pond, 15 acres
3-cell waste stabilization
pond, 5 acres

2-cell waste stabilization
pond, 18 acres
2-cell waste stabilization
pond, 5.2 acres
2-cell waste stabilization
pond, 2.75 acres
Waste stabilization, with
new but presently
inoperable system, 6.5
acres

No system

No system
Expanding to extended
aeration, secondary
clarifier, sand
filtration, chlorination
Extended aeration,
filtration, chlorination
At capacity

Can expand by
about 100-200
people

At capacity


At capacity

At capacity

Old system—over-
loaded; new plus
old system—at
capacity
Designed for
55,000
Designed for
20,000
  Source:  North Dakota Health Department.  Personal communication,
standards and must allow for recycling or zero discharge of pol-
lutants to meet 1985 goals.   The 1985 standard could be met by
using effluents for industrial process makeup water or for irri-
gating local farmland.*


     federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, Pub
L. 92-500, §§ 101, 301; 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976).
                                763
-------
(1)  To 1980

     The only activity scheduled before 1980 is the construction
of the power plant, the first Lurgi gasification plant, and the
openings of their respective lignite surface mines.  The power
plant will go on-line in 1980, but the Lurgi plant will not go
into operation until 1982.  Therefore, prior to 1980 there will
be little land disturbance by mines (and therefore only.minor
reductions in the amount of runoff which no longer reaches
streams) and no water required by the conversion facilities.

     This analysis assumes that the additional water requirements
for communities in the scenario now using groundwater sources will
also be met from groundwater which will be withdrawn by well
fields in nearby alluvial aquifers.  The productivity of the
aquifers supplying each town should be sufficient to meet the
needs without significant aquifer depletion.  A possible excep-
tion is Hannover, which may have to be provided with supplemental
water from surface sources or by a pipeline from a well or well
field in the Square Creek aquifer.  Increased surface water with-
drawals by Bismarck-Mandan to meet projected population needs are
not expected to have an appreciable effect on the flow of the
Missouri River.

     As noted in Table 9-21, all the small towns in the scenario
area, with the exception of. Fort Clark and Hannover, presently
use waste stabilization ponds for sewage treatment.  Residences
in Fort Clark and Hannover use individual septic tank and drain~
field systems.  Bismarck and Mandan have municipal sewage treat-
ment plants.  Both the stabilization ponds (because of leakage)
and the septic tank systems may pose a water quality hazard to
local shallow aquifer systems in both the bedrock and the allu-
vium.  This hazard will be magnified by the population increases
associated with the energy development projected for the scenario
area.

(2)  To 1990

     During the 1980-1990 interval, three of the energy facilities
will begin operation.  The power plant will go on-line in 1980,
and the Lurgi plants will start operation in 1982 and 1987.  The
associated coal mines will begin operation concurrent with their
plants.

     By 1990, the mines for the facilities in operation will have
disturbed a total of 13,900 acres (calculated from Table 9-17)
resulting in a loss of runoff (since this runoff is impounded) of
1,160 acre-ft/yr.  Water requirements will total about 33,600
acre-ft/yr by 1990 or 3.5 percent of the minimum discharge of
Lake Sakakawea and about 0.2 percent of the lake's average annual
discharge.


                               764
-------
     As a result of population growth, municipal water requirements
will increase dramatically about the mid-1980's and then will de-
crease to near the 1980 levels by the end of the decade.  The
alluvial aquifers or surface-water systems that supply the various
communities should be able to meet these additional needs without
aquifer depletion.  Excessive groundwater withdrawals may occur
at Beulah and Zap during the population peak, but the losses will
be made up by recharge in later years.

(3)  To 2000

     The two Synthane plants of the scenario will be constructed
between 1990 and 2000.  Both plants will be in operation by 2000.
By 2000, surface mining for all facilities will have disturbed
34,800 acres of land (calculated from Table 9-17).  Due to runoff
impoundment, this will r'esult in a loss of water to local streams
of about 2,900 acre-ft/yr.  The combined effect of runoff loss,
disrupted land, and mine dewatering could significantly affect
base flows of streams and aquifers.

     After conversion facilities are operating, the total water
requirement assuming high wet cooling and the expected load fac-
tors (Table 9-16)  will be 49,000 acre-ft/yr.  This requirement is
5 percent of Lake Sakakawea's minimum discharge and 0.3 percent
of its average annual discharge.  These withdrawals should not
have a significant effect on water supplies.  However, they may
cause some increase in downstream pollutant concentrations be-
cause of the loss of higher quality water.  This effect—mainly
an increase in total dissolved solids—is difficult to evaluate
quantitatively.

     As in the previous decade, population levels in the commu-
nities of the scenario area during the 1990-2000 decade will in-
crease to a high level in the mid-1990's, then decrease toward
the end of the decade.  The aquifers and rivers used by all the
communities except Beulah should be able to meet the increased
water needs without significant aquifer depletion.  At Beulah,
the groundwater withdrawals may exceed the recharge to the Knife
River aquifer temporarily, but the losses would be made up after
the population declines.

     The middecade population peak will again increase the stress
on the quality of water in local shallow aquifers because of ex-
cess septic tank usage and leakage from waste stabilization ponds.
The renovative capacity of the substrata is not unlimited, and
continued introduction of septic tank and stabilization pond
effluent will probably lead eventually to aquifer contamination.
                                765
-------
(4)  After 2000

     The second Synthane plant will begin operating in 2000, but
most of the impacts after 2000 will occur after the various energy
facilities shut down.

     The mines associated with the five energy conversion facil-
ities will continue to produce the same impacts described for
earlier decades as long as the plants operate.  After the plants
are shut down, the total mine area will be reclaimed and mine
dewatering will cease.  Although aquifer depletion will no longer
be a concern, groundwater quality impacts will continue after the
mine areas are reclaimed.  However, over the long term, the oxida-
tion and release of contaminants in the overburden will be com-
pleted, and the rate of release will taper off.

     After the facilities are decommissioned, the runoff control
systems will no longer be operating.  The amount of runoff con-
tamination will be the result of erosion of the berms and leakage
in the pond liners from lack of maintenance.

     Some of the people who migrate into the area because of en-
ergy development are likely to remain after the plants are shut
down.   If so, water supply demands on the alluvial aquifers and
the Missouri River will continue.  These sources should be able
to meet the needs without significant depletion.

     Communities that have not built municipal sewage treatment
plants will continue to present a water quality hazard to local
aquifers through the use of septic tanks and waste stabilization
ponds.  As noted earlier, this hazard is cumulative in that the
renovative capacity of the substrata will eventually be exhausted.

     By the end of the decade, wastewater treatment demands in
communities with severe treatment problems should have decreased
to levels within the plant capacities of the various communities.

9.3.5  Summary of Water Impacts

     Water impacts are caused by:  (1)  the water requirements of
and effluents from the energy facilities, (2) the water require-
ments of and wastewater generated by associated population in-
creases, and  (3)  the coal mining process itself.

     Assuming the energy facilities hypothesized for the Beulah
area are high wet cooled, the water requirements in acre-ft/yr are
23,884 for the power plant, 9,782 for the two Lurgi plants, and
15,342 for the two Synthane plants.  Operation of all the facil-
ities could require as much as 49,000 acre-ft/yr from Lake
Sakakawea which is 0.3 percent of its average annual discharge
and 5 percent of its minimum discharge.  The use of intermediate
wet cooling for the facilities operating at the expected load

                               766
-------
factor could reduce this demand by 72 percent.  The water
requirements at the mines will generally be met from dewatering
operations.

     Wastewater from the energy facilities, in acre-ft/yr,
average 2,119 from the power plant, 807 from each Lurgi facility,
and 975 from each Synthane plant.  The objective of zero dis-
charge of pollutants set forth in the Federal Water Pollution
Control Act (FWPCA)l will necessitate on-site entrapment and
disposal of all of these effluents.  As a result, effluents will
be discharged into clay-lined, on-site evaporative holding ponds
and runoff prevention systems will be installed to direct runoff1'
to a holding pond or to a water treatment facility.  These methods
protect the quality of surface water systems  (at least for the
life of the plants), but groundwater quality may be reduced by
leakage and leaching from the disposal ponds and pits.

     Municipal water use in the scenario area will total 4,645
acre-ft/yr by 2000 with intermittent demands related to labor-
intensive construction as high as 4,000 acre-ft/yr.  Most of
this municipal water demand is expected to be in Bismarck-Mandan
where the source is the Missouri River.  Small quantities for
other towns will be taken from groundwater.  Increased population
will also cause wastewater increases, totaling 3.4 MMgpd by 2000.
Disposal of urban sanitary wastes may pose several hazards to
groundwater quality, and overloaded waste stabilization ponds may
lower the quality of surface water.  Two cycles of rapid popula-
tion increases followed by rapid decreases, coupled with the re-
quirements of the FWPCA, will tax the ability of the communities
to provide adequate municipal treatment.  Special measures may
have to be instituted, such as using the municipal effluent as
process water at one or more of the energy conversion facilities,
to prevent the municipal effluents from degrading surface-water
quality.  The alternative is building expensive treatment plants
that will not be used efficiently over the long term.

     The coal mines for the hypothesized energy facilities will
also have several indirect impacts on both groundwater and sur-
face water.  If mine dewatering is necessary, local shallow bed-
rock aquifers in the Tongue River formation may be depleted.  The
result would be a lowering of water levels in wells or the drying
up of wells, seeps,  and springs.  Additionally, bedrock recharge
to alluvial aquifers and base flow to streams may be greatly
     1 Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, Pub.
L. 92-500, §§ 101, 301; 33 U.S.C.A. §§ 1251, 1311 (Supp. 1976).

     2Runoff will average 83 acre-ft/yr for each 1,000 acres of
land disturbed by a mine or facility, totalling 5,800 acre-ft/yr
by the year 2000.

                               767
-------
reduced or eliminated.  Returning overburden to the mines during
reclamation may change aquifer characteristics and infiltration
rates.  A total of 33,000 acres will be mined by 2000 and 84,400
acres over the life of all facilities.  Overturning the over-
burden will also bring to the surface materials that were formerly
deeply buried.  Oxidation and release of these materials (acid
waters)  could lower the quality of surface water and groundwater
sources.  Infiltrating precipitation may leach these materials
and carry them directly as recharge to aquifers or indirectly to
surface water sources either as springs or as base flow to streams,
The potential pollution problem associated with the overburden
will continue for several years after plant shutdown and will
diminish slowly as oxidation and other reactions in the over-
burden go to completion.

     Finally, during construction, the energy facilities may
lower the quality (turbidity and dissolved solids content)  of
surface water because of soil disturbance.  Accidental spills
of fuels and lubricants may also enter the surface water system
and infiltrate to groundwater systems.

9.4  SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS

9.4.1  Introduction

     The hypothesized developments in the Beulah scenario will
occur in three counties of west-central North Dakota:  Mercer,
Oliver,  and McLean.  Of the five facilities, three will be in
Mercer County; Oliver and McLean Counties will contain one
facility each.  Most of the anticipated social and economic im-
pacts can be attributed either directly or indirectly to the
attendant population increases.  This analysis focuses on Mercer
County because the facilities are centrally located around Beulah
and because the county has several other small towns which will
be affected by the hypothetical developments.

9.4.2  Existing Conditions

     Together, the three counties cover 3,828 square miles and
had a 1974 population of 19,757 (a population density of 5.2
persons per square mile).  Mercer County alone encompasses 1,042
square miles and had a 1974 population of 6,400 (about six persons
per square mile) .  The area is served by several state highways
and two railroads:  the Burlington Northern running east and west,
and the Milwaukee, St. Paul, and Sault Ste. Marie (Soo Line)
running north and south.

     Between 1950 and 1970, Mercer County's population decreased
by 29 percent.  The state's population also decreased over this
period,  but its 1 percent change was minor compared to the loss
in Mercer County  (Table 9-22).  This decline continued at a


                               768
-------
   TABLE 9-22:
POPULATION, MERCER COUNTY AND NORTH DAKOTA,
1950-1970

Mercer County
North Dakota
POPULATION
1950
8,686
619,636
1960
6,805
632,446
1970
6,175
617,761
PERCENT POPULATION CHANGE
1950-60
' -21.7
+2.1
1960-70
-10
-2.3
1950-70
-29
- 1
    Source:  U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.  1950
    Census of Population; 1960 Census of Population; and 1970 Census
    of Population.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office,
    various dates.
slower pace into the early  1970's;  the county population decreased
6.5 percent (from 6,600  to  6,175)  between 1967 and 1972.

     There are six population  centers in Mercer County, ranging
from 100 to 1,200 people each.   In addition to Beulah, incorpor-
ated towns in the county are:  Stanton (the county seat), Golden
Valley, Hazen, Pick City, and  Zap.   Unlike the county trend,
population in the three  largest  towns (Beulah, Stanton, and Hazen)
has remained fairly stable  over  the past 20 years.  The major loss
has been from the unincorporated rural areas.

     Agriculture dominates  the economy of Mercer County.  In 1970,
33 percent of the labor  force  was employed in agriculture,  (more
than 10 times the national  average)  as compared to 21 percent
statewide.  The rest of  the labor force was scattered throughout
industry, with no other  predominating sector (Table 9-23).  How-
ever, the dominance of agriculture is on the decline in Mercer
County, reflecting a statewide trend.  Total cropland, land in
farms, and the number of farms have all declined from 1969 to
1974 in both Mercer and  Oliver Counties.1  Mining and utilities
sectors now generate more income than any other sector except
     !U.S., Department of  Commerce,  Bureau of the Census.  1974
Census of Agriculture; Preliminary Reports, Mercer County and
Oliver County, North Dakota.
Printing Office, 1976.
              Washington, D.C.
Government
                                769
-------
          TABLE  9-23:
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY GROUP IN
MERCER COUNTY, 1970
INDUSTRY GROUP
Agriculture, forest, and fisheries
Mining
Construction and manufacturing (Total)
Food and kindred products
Printing, publishing, and products
Transportation, communication
Utilities and sanitary sewers
Retail trade
Food and dairy products store
Restaurants
Trade
Finance, insurance, and real estate
Miscellaneous services
Public administration
Total Employment
NUMBER
EMPLOYED
713
115
151
6
3
70
175
210
69
49
210
71
388
91
2,321
PERCENT
OF
TOTAL
33.4
5.9
7.1
0.3
0.1
3.3
8.2
10.5
3.4
2.4
9.8
3.3
18.2
4.3
100
   Source:  U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
   Census of Population;  1970; General Social and Economic
   Character is tics"!  Washington, D.C. :  Government Printing
   Office, 1971.
agriculture.1  Both trends largely reflect the coal resource
developments already under way in the area.

     Both legislative and administrative functions in Mercer
County are exercised by the Board of County Commissioners which
is composed of three members serving 4-year terms.  The Mercer
County Planning Commission, consisting of nine members, serves
under the County Board.  The Commission's primary responsibilities
consist of planning and zoning activities in all unincorporated
areas of the county.  Decisions of the Planning Commission are
subject to approval by the County Commissioners.

     In 1967, the majority of local government expenditures
(60.3 percent) in the county went into education.  Other major


     ^.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
"Local Area Personal Income."  Survey of Current Business, Vol.
54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75.
                               770
-------
expenditures included:  highways, 19.4 percent; public welfare,
3.8 percent; and health and hospitals, 0.4 percent.  The total
local expenditure for that year was $1.8 million.  Law enforce-
ment in Mercer County is handled by a sheriff and five deputies.
The county is served by one hospital, located in Hazen, which has
39 beds and two full-time doctors.  The county also provides a
public health nurse who travels throughout the county.

     Although Stanton is the county seat, almost all the retail
and professional services are provided by the two largest towns,
Beulah and Hazen.

     Beulah is governed by a six-member city council and a mayor.
There is no full-time planner; the city engineer performs planning
services for the town when necessary.  However, there is a plan-
ning commission which meets once a month, and the town has a mas-
ter plan and a zoning code.  Medical services consist of a clinic
staffed by one doctor and one dentist, an eye clinic, and an am-
bulance service.  Law enforcement is provided by one policeman
and one county sheriff's deputy.  The fire department consists of
a 58-man volunteer force and two fire trucks.  In addition, the
city owns and operates its own water and sewage treatment system.

     Hazen is governed by a mayor and four councilmen.  The new
position of city planner was created to deal with growth from
energy development.  It is now filled on a part-time basis by the
city manager, but there are plans to fund it on a full-time basis
starting in 1977.  There is also a voluntary planning commission
composed of nine members who meet twice a month.  Law enforce-
ment is provided by one policeman and one county sheriff's deputy.
Fire protection is provided by a volunteer fire department.  The
city owns and operates its own water and sewer systems, which are
presently operating at full capacity.

     Both Beulah and Hazen appear to have adequate physical
capacity in their public service institutions to provide for the
needs of their current residents.  Further, both cities showed
budget surpluses in fiscal 1973.l  However, the pressures created
by rapid growth could require rapid expansion of facilities and
services in these communities, and thus a sudden increase in their
public service employment.  Under existing legislation, the cities
are not prepared to do this; the maximum indebtedness of North
Dakota cities cannot, by law, exceed 5 percent of their total
assessed valuations.  Thus, Beulah and Hazen are authorized debts
of only $87,600 and $56,400, respectively.  Given today's costs,
such sums will not allow much expansion of public services in


     !This is typical of North Dakota's recent experience.  The
state general fund has a surplus equal to almost a full year's
budget, and voters recently approved a reduction in sales tax
rates.  See the Denver Post, November 6, 1976.

                                771
-------
these communities.  Further, even if a referendum should pass
by a vote of two-thirds of the local residents, this limit can
only be raised an additional 3 percent.

9.4.3  Factors Producing Impacts

     Two factors associated with energy facilities dominate as
the cause of social and economic impacts:  manpower requirements
and taxes levied on the energy facilities.  Tax rates are tied
to capital costs, and/or the value of coal extracted, and/or the
value of energy produced.  Taxes which apply to the Beulah sce-
nario facilities  (a power plant, two Lurgi,  and two Synthane gasi-
fication plants and their associated mines)  are:  property tax,
sales tax, severance tax, royalty payments for federally owned
coal, and an energy conversion tax.

     The manpower requirements for each type of scenario facility
and its associated surface coal mine are given in Table 9-24 and
9-25.  For the mines, manpower requirement for operation exceeds
peak construction manpower requirement by 2.5 times.  However,
the reverse is true for the conversion facilities; peak construc-
tion manpower requirement exceeds the operation requirement by
5 (power plant)  to 7 times (Lurgi and Synthane plants).  In com-
bination, the total manpower requirement for each mine-conversion
facility increases from the first year when construction begins,
peaks, and then declines as construction activity ceases.  Peak
total manpower requirement is about 5,600 for each gasification
plant and 3,200 for the power plant.  The fraction of peak total
manpower requirement needed for operation of the mine and plant
combination is about 0.2 for the gasification plants and 0.4 for
the power plant.  The total manpower required for operation of
the plant-mine combination is about the same for each scenario
facility and its associated mine.

     A property tax and sales tax which are tied to capital costs,
a severance tax and royalty payments which are tied to coal value,
and an energy conversion tax which is tied to energy produced
generate revenue for the state and local governments.  The capital
costs of the conversion facilities and mines hypothesized for the
Beulah scenario are given in Table 9-26.  Costs are about 1,160
millions of 1975 dollars for each mine-gasification plant and
1,525 for the mine-power plant.  The property tax, most of which
goes to local government, is levied on the cash value of the mines
only (approximately the total capital cost given in Table 9-26)
after the construction of the mine is completed.  Sales tax, most
of which goes to the state government, is levied on materials and
equipment only  (Table 9-26)  as the materials and equipment are
purchased during construction.  The current sales tax rate in
North Dakota is 4 percent, and the property tax rate in Mercer,
                               772
-------
     TABLE 9-24:
MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR A 3,000 MEGAWATT
POWER PLANT AND ASSOCIATED MINE3

YEAR
FROM
START
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CONSTRUCTION
WORK FORCE

MINE
0
58
338
328
338
270
0

POWER PLANT
0
460
2,220
2,265
2,345
1,990
720
0
OPERATION
WORK FORCE

MINE



0
440
440
883
883
POWER PLANT


0
109
109
218
436
436

TOTAL IN
ANY ONF
YEAR
0
518
2,558
2,702
3,232
2,918
2,039
1,319
     MWe = megawatt-electric
     o
      Data are for a 3,000 MWe power plant and a surface coal
     mine large enough to supply that power plant (about 19.2
     million tons- per year)  and are from Carasso, M. , et al.
     The Energy Supply Planning Model, 2 vols.  San Francisco,
     Calif.:  Bechtel Corporation, 1975; data uncertainty is
     -10 to +20 percent.
Oliver, and McLean counties is about 1.48 percent.1  The severance
tax (of which 40 percent goes to local government, 30 percent to
state government, and 30 percent is saved) is levied at a rate of
5 percent on the value of the coal mined.  Royalty payments, of
which 50 percent is returned to state and local government, are
about 12.5 percent of the value of federally owned coal.2  How-
ever, all royalties are retained by Indian tribes when the coal
is on the reservation.  The energy conversion tax, most of which
goes to state government, is levied at a rate of 0.25 mill per
kWh on the power plant and $0.10 per thousand cubic feet  (Mcf) on
the gasification plants.  No energy conversion tax is collected
on conversion facilities located on Indian reservations.


     JThis is the effective, average property tax rate.  The
actual rate is computed using a number of assessment ratios, since
certain kinds of equipment (e.g., pollution control equipment) are
taxed at different rates or may be exempt.

     '2This is the federal government's target rate; actual rates
will vary from facility to facility.
                               773
-------
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9.4.4  Impacts

     The nature and extent of the social and economic impacts
caused by these factors depends on the size and character of the
community or communities in which workers and their families
live, on the state and local tax structure, and on many other
social and economic factors.  A scenario, which calls for the
development of a power plant, two Lurgi and two Synthane gasifi-
cation plants, and their associated mines according to a specified
time schedule (see Table 9-1),  is used here as a vehicle through
which the nature and extent of the impacts are explored.  The
discussion relates each impact type to the hypothetical scenario
and includes population impacts, housing and school impacts,
economic impacts, fiscal impacts, social and cultural impacts,
and political and governmental impacts.

A.  Population Impacts

     Most of the social and economic impacts in the Beulah scenario
will result from population increases, initially during construc-
tion and later during operation of the facilities.

     The initial major effect on the Beulah area will be caused
by construction of the electric generating plant beginning in
1975, followed in 1977 by work on the first Lurgi gasification
plant.  The construction employment results in the sharply
cyclical employment pattern of Table 9-27 (based on the employment
multipliers in Table 9-28).   Construction work in this scenario
extends throughout the 1975-2000 time period, with the brief
exception of 1988 and 1989.   The entire employment-induced popu-
lation change is assumed to occur within the existing towns and
is allocated among those in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean Counties
as well as the Bismarck-Mandan area.a  The population estimates
are shown in Table 9-29 and Figures 9-5 and 9-6.

     Because of construction period peaks and the location of
the plants in this scenario, Mercer County is expected to nearly
double in population by 1985, fall to around 8,600 in 1990, rise
to 14,000 in the mid-1990's, then level off at just over 10,000
by the end of the century.   Beulah and Hazen, the largest towns
in the county, will closely reflect this trend.  The early sce-
nario activity will take place in Oliver County, where the total
population will increase rapidly until 1980, then gradually


     Population changes were estimated by means of the economic
base model (See Part II, Introduction) and the multipliers in
Table 11-28.  The overall estimates were allocated among those
towns in the Beulah area within an hour's drive of each facility.
The allocation model assumes that larger towns and closer towns
should attract a greater proportion of new residents and balances
the effects of population and commuting distance.

                               776
-------
  TABLE 9-27:  CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION EMPLOYMENT IN
               ENERGY DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO, 1975-2000
               (person-years)
YEAR
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
CONSTRUCTION
520
2,560
2,630
2,870
3,050
3,600
4,830
2,690
190
790
2,880
4,830
2,660
0
0
30
190
790
2,880
4,830
2,660
190
790
2,880
4,830
2,600
OPERATION
0
0
110
630
660
1,570
2,160
2,410
2,410
2, 400
2,650
3,240
3,490
3,490
3,490
3,490
3,490
3,490
3,740
4,330
4,580
4,580
4,580
4,830
5,410
5,660
TOTAL
520
2,560
2,740
3,500
3,710
5,170
6,990
5,100
2,600
3,190
5,530
8,070
6,150
3,490
3,490
3,520
3,680
4,280
6,620
9,160
7,240
4,770
5,370
7,710
10,240
8,260
Source:  Carasso, M., et al.  The Energy Supply Planning Model,
2 vols.  San Francisco, Calif.:  Bechtel Corporation, 1975.
                               777
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  TABLE 9-27:
CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION EMPLOYMENT IN BEULAH
ENERGY DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO, 1975-2000
(person-years)
YEAR
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
CONSTRUCTION
520
2,560
2,630
2,870
3,050
3,600
4,830
2,690
190
790
2,880
4,830
2,660
0
0
30
190
790
2,880
4,830
2,660
190
790
2,880
4,830
2,600
OPERATION
0
0
110
630
660
1,570
2,160
2,410
2,410
2,400
2,650
3,240
3,490
3,490
3,490
3,490
3,490
3,490
3,740
4,330
4,580
4,580
4,580
4,830
5,410
5,660
TOTAL
520
2,560
2,740
3,500
3,710
5,170
6,990
5,100
2,600
3,190
5,530
8,070
6,150
3,490
3,490
3,520
3,680
4,280
6,620
9,160
7,240
4,770
5,370
7,710
10,240
8,260
Source:  Carasso, M., et al.  The Energy Supply Planning Model,
2 vols.  San Francisco, Calif.:  Bechtel Corporation, 1975.
                               777
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                                                    Beulah



                                                    Stanton

                                                    Zap

                                                    Golden Valley
     1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
         FIGURE  9-5:
        POPULATION ESTIMATES  FOR BEULAH

        SCENARIO AREA,  1975-2000
                               780
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:-;;:/^
.... ..-••:' B
i
McLean
Oliver

ismarck
Randan
County
County
      1975
           1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
   FIGURE 9-6:
           POPULATION ESTIMATES  FOR OLIVER AND  McLEAN

           COUNTIES, AND BISMARCK-MANDAN, 1975-2000
                              781
-------
                    ch a population of about 3,350 by 2000.  Much
                   xopment activity in Oliver County will focus on
                   , which is expected to double in population to
               Ration of McLean County, the site of the last
                Cation facility, will increase by nearly 3,000
        •t   <£fte95.  This increase will be concentrated in the
         "^o ^bod, which will grow by nearly a factor of 5 be-
          ^  gjd 2000.  Finally, the Bismarck-Mandan urban aresi
          ^east should grow steadily to 75,700 (a 61-per'cent
           ver the period.  The largest absolute population growth
      -t\3ee,cenario  is expected to occur in Bismarck and Mandan.

       Vfl^sex breakdowns of the projected population in Mercer
       tllow estimates of housing and educational needs.  Since
       : the Beulah scenario developments will be located in
      .• County, the effects of the construction population booms
     .at county are of particular interest.  The 1970 age-sex
    .ributions and data from community surveys in the West were
   ,d to estimate age-sex distributions for new employees and
  eir families.1  The resulting distribution for Mercer County
 nows the effects of construction activity.  During heavy con-
struction periods  (e.g., 1985 and 1995 in Table 9-30), the 20-34
age groups,  particularly males, are predominant.  However, other
age groups also appear to vary in relation to the amount of
energy construction.

B.  Housing and School Impacts

     Housing demand in the Mercer County area will be highly
dependent on construction activity.  The number of households in
the county will reach a peak of 5,700 in 1995 but will level off
to 4,200 in 2000; this compares to a 1975 level of 1,950 house-
holds (Figure 9-7, Table 9-31).  The peak housing demands will
be met largely by mobile homes, as is common in short-term situa-
tions.  These homes will be located mainly in and around Beulah,
the town most affected by the cyclical changes in population.  If
housing construction in the county keeps up with the projected
needs, over 1,200 single-family and 500 multifamily units will be
built by the year 2000 (Table 9-32).  Currently, about 12 percent
of the county's housing consists of mobile homes,2 a proportion
     fountain West Research.  Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report.  Washington, D.C.:  Old West Regional Commission,
December 1975.

     2Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic
Impacts of Natural Resource Development Committee.  Socioeconomic
Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted"
Communities in Federal Region VIII.Denver,Colo.:Mountain
Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975.

                               782
-------
           9~30:
          AGE
     Femal<
       65-
      55-64
      35-54
         Over
      25-
         34
      20-24
      17-
          19
     14-ie
      6-13
      0-5
   TOTAL
  Male
    65-
    55-64
    35-54
       Over
   25-
        34
   20-24
   17-19
   14-16
   6-13
   0-5
TOTAL
                                   „„„,„„
                     1975
    • 057
    •061
    •115
   .051
   .027
   •020
   .035
   • 091
   050

   507
                              1980
    .032
    •040
    • 105
   •110
   ..042
   .022
   .024
   .067
   044

   486
                                     1985
     020
    .033
    •121
   •130
   • 047
   •023
   •019
   .055
   026

   474
                                             1990
    •036
    .059
    •180
   .072
   .018
   .012
   .031
   • 061
   016

   485
 • 051
 .065
 •118
 • 054
 • 019
 • 023
.030
.083
 050

 493
                                                     1995
    •018
    .035
    •133
   •131
   •041
   •019
   • 020
   •050
   025

   472
 • 029
 .044
 •116
 •128
 • 044
 .025
.021
• 063
 044
                                                             2000
 •024
 •068
 •204
 .066
 •015
 •012
•025
.050
 017

481
 .021
 .037
 .140
 •152
 • 054
 '023
• 019
.054
 026
 • 038
 .067
 .206
 • 077
 • Oil
 .008
.032
.061
 016
 •020
 • 041
 •155
 -153
 •044
• 019
• 020
• 050
 025
S°Urce:   Tah



                        t
                            •
                                                          • 027
                                                          • 079
                                                         •235
                                                         • 067
                                                         • 009
                                                         •010
                                                         .025
                                                         050
                                                       519
      do -ot aiways
                         783
-------
                                          entary
                                       Secondary
1980
         1985
                   1990
                            1995
                                     2000
FIGURE
,
9-7
    S
COUNTY
                     00
                    784
-------
TABLE 9-31:
       NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
       IN MERCER COUNTY, 1975-2000


YEAR
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000

NUMBER OF
HOUSEHOLDS3
l,950d
3,000
4,500
3,400
5,700
4,200
NUMBER OF
ELEMENTARY
SCHOOL CHILDREN
l,100d
1,400
1,500
1,300
1,750
1,250
NUMBER OF
SECONDARY
SCHOOL CHILDREN0
400d
480
540
540
690
620
 Includes single-person households, which are about 20
percent of the total.

 Ages 6-13 plus 25 percent adjustment to improve estimates.

CAges 14-16 plus 25 percent adjustment to improve estimates,

 Estimated.
        TABLE 9-32:
               DISTRIBUTION OF NEW HOUSING
               NEEDS BY TYPE OF DWELLING3

PERIOD
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990°
1990-1995
1995-2000°
MOBILE
HOME
420
580
-890
850
-860
SINGLE-
FAMILY
410
610
0
190
0
MULT I -
FAMILY
130
180
0
360
-140

OTHERb
90
120
-210
300
-300
       Compiled from Table 9-31 and data adapted from
      Mountain West Research.  Construction Worker
      Profile, Final Report.
	                 Washington, D.C.:
West Regional Commission, 1975, p. 103.
Old
       For example, campers and recreational vehicles.

      °Negative values indicate dwelling removal, under
      the assumption that mobile homes will be the first
      to be removed during periods of population decline.
                          785
-------
that would more than triple in such peak construction years as
1985 and 1995.

     School enrollment impacts show another trend, with differ-
ences in timing between elementary and high schools (Table 9-31).
The overall peak will be reached in 1995,, when over 2,400 students
will be enrolled (72 percent in elementary schools).  In terms of
the school financial situation, the current surplus of 30 class-
rooms would allow any need through 1990 to be met with current
facilities (Table 9-33) .  A short-term need for 15 additional
classrooms in 1986 and in the 1990's suggests that low-cost tem-
porary classrooms or double sessions could largely solve the de-
mand problem without building any new, permanent schools.  Annual
operating expenditures for schools in Mercer County should be
almost double the present $1.5 million level during the 1990's;
however, the average annual budget during the scenario period
should be less than 50 percent above current expenditures.  The
Bismarck-Mandan school districts will have to build over 200 class-
rooms at a cost of over $14 million because those districts are
already operating near their capacities.

C.  Economic Impacts

     The economy of the Beulah area is still predominantly
agricultural, particularly Oliver County where 58.8 percent of
1972 personal income was derived from agriculture.  The 1972
levels for McLean and Mercer Counties were 42.0 percent and 27.2
percent, respectively.  In that year, the mining, construction,
and utility industries were already important to Mercer County,
providing 38 percent of personal income for its inhabitants.1
As energy developments increase in the area, additional lands will
be taken out of agricultural production, but employment opportun-
ities in energy-related sectors will expand.  Consequently, the
Mercer County economy should become even more energy dependent,
and the other counties will 'also see a percentage decline in
their reliance on agriculture.

     Largely because of the change in industry mix areawide, the
income distribution will rise to reflect the higher paying employ-
ment2 opportunities for both local residents and newcomers.  For
example, in Mercer County the highest incomes will occur during
the 1986 and 1995 construction booms, when nonlocals will be a


     ^.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
"Local Area Personal Income."  Survey of Current Business, Vol.
54  (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75.

     2In recent years, high agricultural prices have resulted in
high farm incomes, often exceeding the projected energy operation
salaries.  Over the long term, however, energy occupations will
be higher paying.

                               786
-------
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                                 787
-------
      TABLE  9-34:
PROJECTED INCOME  DISTRIBUTION FOR MERCER
COUNTY, 1975-2000
(in 1975 dollars)
INCOME
Less than $4,000
4,000- 5,999
6,000- 7,999
8,000- 9,999
10,000-11,999
12,000-14,999
15,000-24,999
25,000-over
Median Household
19753
.188
,.122
.114
.087
.084
.110
.234
.061
9,700
1980
.105
.071
.065
.072
.089
.117
.381
.100
14,500
1985
.074
.053
.045
.063
.092
.119
.434
.119
16,200
1990
.097
.067
.061
.075
.094
.140
.389
.094
14,300
1995
.066
.049
.042
.066
.095
.130
.439
.112
16,200
2000
.082
.058
.052
.075
.097
.136
.407
.093
15,000
      Source:  Tables 9-24,  9-25, and 9-26 and Mountain West Research.
      Construction Worker Profile, Final Report.  Washington, B.C.:
      Old West Regional Commission, December 1975.

       u,S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.  Household
      Income in 1969 for States, SMSA's, Cities,  and Counties;1970.
      Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1973.
large part of  the  labor force (Table 9-34).   A projected overall
rise of over 50  percent in median income by  2000  includes the ex-
pansion of the local economy and employment  of local people as
well as immigrants to the area.

     The increases in the service sector will be  concentrated in
local retailing  activities, particularly in  Beulah.   Beulah, Hazen,
Underwood, and Washburn currently serve as local  trade centers,
whereas Mandan and Bismarck are the regional centers for wholesale
and retail activity.1  The primary change expected from energy de-
velopment is a growing predominance of Beulah in  the Mercer-Oliver-
McLean county  area.   Because of the attraction of Bismarck and
Mandan, no major secondary industries are expected to locate near
Beulah.

     Mercer County communities must provide  public services for
the increased  population.  Beulah and Hazen,  in particular, will
require extensive  additions to their water and sewage treatment


     :0wens, Wayne W., and Elmer C. Vangsness.  Trade Areas in
North Dakota,  Extension Bulletin No. 20.  Fargo,  N.D.:  North
Dakota State University, Cooperative Extension Service, 1973.
                                788
-------
facilities through 1985 (Table 9-35).'  Facilities capable of
meeting the 1985 demands should be adequate through 2000, except
for the 1995 construction boom.  The Bismarck-Mandan area also
will have an early capital need (before 1980) for over $22 million,
which will become somewhat more gradual for the rest of the period.
Other capital needs, especially for health care facilities, will
demand considerable expenditures, as indicated in Table 9-35.

     In terms of operating expenditures, Beulah's municipal bud-
get should triple to nearly $600,000 during the peak construction
years.  Hazen will be affected much the same as Beulah in absolute
terms, which means a much greater proportional growth (Table 9-36).
Since energy developments will be located in rural areas and the
associated population will settle in the towns, some revenues will
not add directly to the tax base of impacted towns.

     The temporary removal of land from agriculture, the avail-
ability of well-paying jobs, and the expansion of towns in the
Beulah area will combine to change the region into a more diverse
economy.  The early boom will cause planning and budgetary dif-
ficulties for the towns nearby, although revenues should be
sufficient for needs.2  Most long-term benefits will accrue to
the Bismarck-Mandan area, where wholesale and retail activity
will expand to serve the increased population.

D.  Fiscal Impacts

     North Dakota has recently enacted significant changes in the
collection and disbursement of taxes on energy facilities.  The
new severance tax applies to the mining of coal, while the new
privilege tax applies to the conversion of coal to other energy
forms.  (Thus, operators will have some incentive to "strip and
ship" and avoid the privilege tax, rather than process or use
the coal at the mine site.)

     The Beulah scenario envisions an annual production of 60.3
million tons of coal by the end of the century, a 3,000 MWe power
plant (full production by 1980), and four assorted gasification


     Actually both towns have some unused capacity, so that early
needs will be somewhat less.  See Mountain Plains Federal Regional
Council, Socioeconomic Impacts of Natural Resource Development
Committee.  Socioeconomic Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy
Development Impacted Communities in Federal Region VIII.  Denver,
Colo.:Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975.

     2Leistritz, L., A.G. Leholm, and T.A. Hertsgaard.  "Public
Sector Implications of a Coal Gasification Plant in Western North
Dakota," in Clark, Wilson F., ed.  Proceedings of the Fort Union
Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 4:  Social Impacts Section.Billings,
Mont.:  Eastern Montana College, 1975, pp. 429-42.

                               789
-------
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                                                           790
-------
TABLE 9-36:
NECESSARY OPERATING EXPENDITURES
OF MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENTS IN
SELECTED COMMUNITIES, 1980-20003
(dollars)
YEAR
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Current
(1974)
Budgetb
BEULAH
114,000
318,000
102,000
414,000
126,000
143,850
HAZEN
67,000
139,000
91,000
343,000
163,000
10,950
BISMARCK-MANDAN
1,152,000
1,464,000
1,572,000
2,436,000
3,456,000
12,417,206
aAbove 1975 base level, based on population
given in Table 9-29 and a figure of $120 per
capita, broken down as follows:  highways
(25 percent); health and hospitals (14 per-
cent) ; police (7 percent); fire protection
(12 percent) ; parks and recreation (6 percent) ;
libraries (4 percent); administration (10
percent); sanitation and sewage (10 percent);
and other (12 percent).  See THK Associates,
Inc.  Impact Analysis and Development Patterns
Related to an Oil Shale Industry;   Regional
Development and Land Use Study.  Denver, Colo.:
THK Associates,  1974.

 Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council,
Socioeconomic Impacts of Natural Resource
Development Committee.  Socioeconomic Impacts
and Federal Assistance in Energy Development
Impacted Communities in Federal Region VIIlT
Denver, Colo.:Mountain Plains Federal
Regional Council, 1975.
                     791
-------
plants to come on-line between 1982 and 2000.  Applying current
tax rates to the projected incremental increases, revenues likely
to arise from these energy developments are:

   • Coal Mining.  The severance tax is $0.50 per ton.1  The
     authorizing legislation makes explicit provision for
     keeping up with inflation; thus, the $0.50 figure can
     be used throughout, in terms of 1975 currency.  With
     the production levels of this scenario, the severance
     tax yields the following revenues:2
      1980      1985      1990      1995        2000
     $12.3     $17.8     $20.5     $25.3       $30.1 (millions)

   • Electrical Generation.  The tax rate is one-fourth mill
     per kWh.  For a 3,000 MWe plant at 70 percent load fac-
     tor, the tax would amount to $4.6 million per year.  The
     assumptions are that' one-fourth of this rate will be
     achieved in 1977-1978, one-half in 1979, and the full
     rate thereafter.

   • Gasification.  Conversion facilities pay either 2.5
     percent of gross receipts or $0.10 per Mcf, whichever
     is greater.  Taking the $0.10 rate,  each gasification
     facility will generate revenues of $8.2 million per
     year.

   • Property Taxes.  Although the privilege tax stands in
     lieu of ad valorem taxes on conversion facilities, coal
     mines are still subject to property  taxes.  In North
     Dakota, the average current assessment ratio is 17 per-
     cent, the legal taxable value ratio  is 50 percent, and
     the average mill levy is 174 (17.4 percent).3  All these
     factors are effectively multiplied together to yield a
     true tax rate of 1.48 percent of narket value.  During
     the scenario time frame, five surface mines will be
     inaugurated at a total development cost of $493 million.
     Applying the 1.48 percent rate to these facilities,
     property tax revenues will grow as follows:
      1980      1985      1990      1995       2000
     $3.03     $4.38     $4.99     $6.14      $7.30 (millions)
     ^ronder, Leonard D.  Taxation of Coal Mining:  Review with
Recommendations.   Denver, Colo.:  Western Governors' Regional
Energy Policy Office, 1976; and Stenehjem, Erik.  Intra-Laboratory
Memo.  Argonne National Laboratory, February 9, 1976.

     Distribution will be considered after all revenues are
listed.

     3Stenehjem.   Intra-Laboratory Memo.

                               792
-------
   • Distribution.  The new tax laws take cognizance of
     those jurisdictional problems occurring in other
     energy-rich areas.  In most of the other scenarios,
     the county in which facilities are located has
     reaped the most significant portion of the revenues,
     while other jurisdictions have had to provide extra
     services without the benefit of new taxes.  North
     Dakota has, instead, largely supplanted the property
     tax with new formulas designed to spread revenues
     over a variety of governmental units.

     The severance tax is distributed into the following
     shares:

          35 percent of the Coal Development Impact Office
          (see Section F.  Political and Governmental Impacts).

          30 percent to the state general fund.

          5 percent to the county of origin.

          30 percent to the state trust fund.

     After legislative appropriation, the impact development
office has wide latitude in disbursing these funds to any local
units impacted by coal development.  The trust fund, administered
by the board of university and school lands, is to be held in
perpetuity.   However, income from this fund can be paid to the
state general fund.  The Beulah scenario should result in an
accumulation of $133 million by the end of the century.  An income
of 5 percent, then, would make another $6.6 million available
to the state beyond its 30-percent share.

     The coal conversion tax is distributed as follows:

   • 90 percent to the state general fund.

   • 4.5 percent to the schools in originating county.

   • 4.0 percent to the county general fund.

   • 1.5 percent to the towns in the originating county.

School and town allocations must be prorated on the basis of
attendance and population,  respectively.

     In recent years, Mercer County has been allocating 51 per-
cent of tax revenues to the general fund, 48 percent to schools,
                               793
-------
and 1 percent to a state medical fund.1  This is assumed to
continue.

     These various taxes will be applied to the full complement
of energy facilities (five mines, an electric station, and four
gasification plants), and the revenues will be distributed by
formula.  The net result, by jurisdiction, is aiven in Table
9-37.

     These revenues appear adequate to yield an overall net
surplus.  However, the state government will capture most of this
new revenue and will also benefit from income and sales taxes (not
calculated here).  In addition, the towns are only guaranteed
$560,000 per year by the end of the century; their solvency depends
on allocations from the Coal Development Impact Office (which
operates within the office of the governor).2  That source can
cover all municipal fiscal impacts if allocated with that goal in
mind.  Local property taxes might even be reduced with no real
decline in the ability to provide government services in the long
term.

E.  Social and Cultural Impacts

     The removal of land from agricultural production for strip
mining will be difficult for some farmers, but the compensation
from the mining activity, as well as the jobs made available, will
be welcomed by many.   The steady out-migration from the Beulah
area in recent years would be turned around, an event that would
also be favored by most residents.3  Judging from recent experi-
ences, a large part of the labor force for energy development
     ^.S., Department of the Interior,  Bureau of Reclamation
and Center for Interdisciplinary Studies.  Anticipated Effects of
Major Coal Development on Public Services, Costs, and Revenues in
Six Selected Counties.  Denver, Colo.:  Northern Great Plains
Resources Program, 1974.

     2They may also benefit from commercial and residential prop-
erty taxes and utility fees not calculated here.

     3Bickel, D., and C. Markell.  "Problems and Solutions Related
to Measuring Regional Attitudes Toward Coal Development and Life
Styles in the Eastern Williston Basin,"  in Clark, Wilson F., ed.
Proceedings of the Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 4:
Social Impacts Section.  Billings, Mont.:  Eastern Montana College,
1975, pp. 421-28.

                               794
-------
       TABLE 9-37:
ALLOCATION OF TAXES LEVIED DIRECTLY ON
ENERGY FACILITIES, MERCER COUNTY
(millions of 1975 dollars)
JURISDICTION
State General Fund3
Impact Development Office
County General Office
School Districts
Towns
Total
1980
8.1
4.3
2.3
1.6
0.1
16.4
1985
18.2
6.2
3.6
2.7
0.2
30.9
1990
28.1
7.2
4.3
3.3
0.3
43.2
1995
38.6
8.9
5.6
4.2
0.4
57.7
2000
49.4
10.5
6.7
5.2
0.6
72.4
     Including  medical  fund  and  income  from trust  fund  (at 5
    percent) .
will be made up of local people.:  Many other workers are likely
to be North Dakotans, and at least one-third of all employees
will be from outside the Northern Great Plains.  Nonlocal employ-
ment of such skilled workers as pipefitters and electricians is
even more likely, up to levels of 70 percent and higher.2

     Major uncertainty exists concerning the extent to which the
local housing construction industries will be able to supply
single-family and multifamily homes.  A shortage of homes and
subsequent reliance on mobile homes would be unpleasant to many
families arriving in the Beulah area.  Medical care will also be
a problem for the scenario area, where only four doctors are
available between Mandan and Dickinson (70 miles southwest of
Beulah), two of whom are affiliated with a 39-bed hospital at
Hazen.3  Government policy is generally unable to induce doctors
     1Leholm, A., F.L. Leistritz, and J.S. Wieland.  Profile of
North Dakota's Coal Mine and Electric Power Plant Operating Work
Force, Agricultural Economics Report No. 100.  Fargo, N.D.:  North
Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Economics,
1975.

     2Mountain West Research.  Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report.  Washington, D.C.:  Old West Regional Commission, December
1975, pp. 14-19.

     3Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Im-
pacts of Natural Resource Development Committee.  Socioeconomic
Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted
Communities in Federal Region VIII.  Denver, Colo.:
Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975.
                                 Mountain
                               795
-------
to settle in small communities when there are ample opportunities
in more attractive places,1 although loan forgiveness programs
have had some success.z  For example, Underwood, Stanton, and
Center currently have no doctors, and projected population growth
will create the need for physicians in these towns.  The Bismarck-
Mandan area currently has 91 doctors but could need as many as
50 more by 2000.  The urban areas clearly will have much less
difficulty attracting physicians than the rural towns.

F.  Political and Governmental Impacts

     The population increases expected in the Beulah scenario
will create a general need for more local government resources.
None of the towns in the area has a full-time mayor or city
manager,3 but the planning needs during the energy boom may pro-
vide sufficient impetus to change that.  Zoning and subdivision
regulations, building codes, and mobile home park design stan-
dards already exist to guide local expansion and permanent con-
struction in municipalities.

     A major uncertainty in the scenario area is the extent to
which the local housing construction industry will be able to
cope with increasing demand for single-family and multifamily
homes.  At present, North Dakota does not have an administrative
organization at the state level to assist in the establishment
and financing of necessary housing in rural areas; the state also
does not have a housing financing agency or corporation whose
specific purpose is to assist in securing mortgage money for
traditional lending institutions.  A program designed to admin-
ister bonds and related fiscal mechanisms could be made operational
through the Bank of North Dakota, but the statutory authority
usually granted to state housing finance corporations is lacking.
Consequently, growth communities are unable to use many national
     ^ankford, Phillip L.  "Physician Location Factors and Public
Policy."  Economic Geography,  Vol. 50 (July 1974), pp. 244-55.

     2Coleman, Sinclair.  Physician Distribution and Rural Access
To Medical Services, R-1887-HEW.  Santa Monica, Calif.:Rand
Corporation,1976.

     3Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Im-
pacts of Natural Resource Development Committee.  Socioeconomic
Impacts and Federal Assistance in Energy Development Impacted
Communities in Federal Region VIII.  Denver, Colo.:  Mountain
Plains Federal Regional Council, 1975.

                               796
-------
and federal financial sources for housing that are available to
other states.l

     Besides problems of housing, county and local governments
will be hard-pressed to provide the range of services that tradi-
tionally falls within the scope of their responsibilities.
Mitigation of negative impacts in facilities and services cate-
gories will depend largely on the availability of front-end capital
and the ability of government to plan for such impacts.  .As noted
in the fiscal analysis, existing debt ceilings in Beulah and Hazen
are not adequate if these localities are to cope with projected
demands.  Consequently, the fiscal solvency of these two commun-
ities, as well as others in the scenario area, depends largely on
the distribution of funds from the recently created Coal Develop-
ment Impact Office.  The Office administers the revenues collected
from the state severance tax on coal.  By statute, the Coal Devel-
opment Impact Office has the authority to formulate a plan to pro-
vide financial aid to local governments in coal development areas
and to make grants to counties, cities, school districts, and
other taxing districts.  Decisions regarding the amount of an
impact grant awarded to an eligible political subdivision must
consider the amount of revenues which the local governments will
gain from other tax sources.2  Clearly, the office will play an
important role in facilitating responses to service demands within
the state's energy-impacted communities because it has responsi-
bility for determining not only which community will receive aid
but also how much assistance.each will receive.  As presently
organized, the program leaves local administrators and officials
in a state of uncertainty as to whether they should prepare pro-
posals and whether they will indeed receive funds for projects
they propose.  Also uncertain is the Office's budget, at least in
the long-term.3

     As well as affecting the governmental institutions and pro-
cesses in the scenario area, energy development can be expected
to affect the political activity and attitudes of the residents.
Although little information exists concerning the effects on
local government of population influences associated specifically
with energy development, conflicts between newcomers and area
natives may produce noticeable effects on a community.  Energy
development workers are a potential political force because their


     *Rapp, Donald A.   Western Boomtowns, Part I, Amended:  A Com-
parative Analysis of State Actions, Special Report to the Gover-
nors.   Denver, Colo.:   Western Governors' Regional Energy Policy
Office, 1976.

     2North Dakota Century Code §§ 57-62-04 (Cumulative Supp.  1975).

     3The Coal Development Impact Program was scheduled to last
until June 30, 1977 unless renewed by the state legislature.

                               797
-------
socioeconomic characteristics -are generally associated with higher
than average involvement in politics.1  Also, they generally have
urban viewpoints that conflict with the rural viewpoints of the
local government personnel.  (In this scenario area, as in most
of the West, the present county governments are controlled by
agricultural interests.)  If long-time residents are willing to
compromise with new interests (e.g., by channeling the increased
revenues toward support of increased local services and amenities),
then conflicts between the two groups may be minimized.

9.4.5  Summary of Social and Economic Impacts

     Manpower requirements and taxes levied on the energy facil-
ities are major causes of social and economic impacts.  For the
mines, manpower requirements for operation exceed peak construc-
tion manpower requirements.  However the reverse is true for the
conversion facilities; peak construction manpower requirement
exceeds the operation requirement by 5 to 7 times.   In combination,
total manpower requirement for each mine-conversion facility in-
creases from the first year when construction begins,  peaks, and
then declines as construction activity ceases.  Total  manpower
required for operation of the plant-mine combination is about the
same for each scenario facility and its associated mine.

     A property tax and sales tax which are tied to capital costs,
severance tax and royalty payments which are tied to the value of
coal, and an energy conversion tax which is tied to the energy
produced generate revenue for the state and local government.
Capital costs of the conversion facilities and mines hypothesized
for the Beulah scenario in millions of 1975 dollars are about
1,200 for each of the mine-gasification facilities and 1,500 for
the mine-power plant facility.   The property tax is levied at a
rate of about 1.48 percent on total capital costs,  and the sales
tax is levied at a rate of 4 percent on materials and equipment.
In addition, the severance tax is levied at a rate of  5 percent
on the value of the coal mined.  Royalty payments for  federally
owned coal are about 12.5 percent.  All royalties are retained by
Indian tribes for coal on the reservation.  The energy conversion
tax is levied at a rate of 0.25 mill per kWh on the power plant
and $0.10 per Mcf on the gasification plants.  No energy conver-
sion tax is collected from facilities on Indian reservations.

     Energy development in the Beulah area, especially strip
mining and coal gasification, will cause population shifts over
a three-county area focusing on Beulah and greater expansion in
     :Por a discussion of the characteristics that are usually
associated with a high level of involvement in political affairs,
see Flanigan, William H.  Political Behavior of the American
Electorate, 2nd ed.  Boston, Mass.:  Allyn and Bacon, 1972.

                               798
-------
the Bismarck area.  The greater population influxes will accompany
facilities construction in 1985 and 1995-2000.  If facilities are
constructed according to the hypothesized schedule, an overall
increase of 40,000 people in the area is expected by 2000, nearly
30,000 of which will probably live in the Bismarck-Mandan area.
Temporary housing, particularly mobile homes, will have to provide
shelter for construction boom periods.  Mobile homes could become
more permanent fixtures if the local homebuilding industry cannot
provide the single-family and multifamily units that could be
demanded by the year 2000.

     School enrollment in Mercer County will be greatest in 1995
but will remain at least 50 percent above 1975 levels through the
rest of the century.  This indicates an average annual budget
increase for schools in the county of about $2 million over cur-
rent levels.  New classroom needs will be small in comparison
with other scenarios studies; the Bismarck-Mandan urban area will
receive the greatest long-term impact, requiring 270 classrooms
and $14 million in capital expenditures.

     Agriculture's dominant position in the economy of the Beulah
area will be replaced by coal-related sectors.  New job opportu-
nities will allow many local people and former North Dakotans to
take energy development positions.  As a result, median income in
the area will rise about 50 percent over the 1975 level, although
short-term peaks will occur during construction periods.  In
wholesale and retail services, Bismarck-Mandan will see increases
in activity, while Beulah and Hazen may expand as local retail
centers.  Combined with increases in population, these economic
changes may result in new political alignments and leadership.

     Municipal services and related expenditures must increase
substantially to provide the necessary services, which will be
concentrated exclusively in the towns.  Medical care is a partic-
ular problem area, especially since it is difficult to attract
doctors to nonmetropolitan locations.  For example, the need for
doctors by 2000 in the Beulah area will be difficult to meet under
current trends.  Planning for and managing energy development-
related impacts may require full-time professional personnel in
local governments, rather than the current part-time nonprofes-
sionals.

9.5  ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS

9.5.1  Introduction

     The area evaluated in the Beulah scenario extends southward
to the Heart River, eastward past the Missouri River, northward
10 miles beyond Lake Sakakawea (Garrison Reservoir), and westward
to the Badlands of the Little Missouri.  Most of the land is
gently rolling prairie, crossed by a few streams.  The climate
is semiarid, with extreme annual variations in temperature.

                               799
-------
Climate (especially winter weather),  topography, and soil types
largely determine the nature of the native biota and its pro-
ductivity.  Agriculture has markedly altered the natural grass-
land ecosystem, reducing both the diversity and abundance of
wildlife.

9.5.2  Existing Biological Conditions

     Two major native biological communities are found in the
area, each with characteristic animal and plant species indicated
in Table 9-38.  The more extensive is the mixed mid- and short-
grass prairie that forms a nearly complete ground cover in upland
areas.1  More than half of this area is under cultivation, princi-
pally for wheat or forage crops, and the remainder is grazed.
Antelope are important game species in the area.  Black-footed
ferrets are thought to be present but have not been confirmed.
Both small birds and larger birds of prey are numerous.2  The
peregrine falcon formerly bred on buttes and escarpments in the
prairie habitat type but is now thought to be extinct as a breed-
ing bird in North Dakota.  Thousands of water-fowl nest and stop
during migration on the many small lakes and marshes (an impor-
tant duck production area).

     The second major community is a variable woodland with its
major development along the Missouri River Floodplain and tribu-
taries.3  The complex physical structure of these woodland areas,
which provide a wide variety of nesting or denning sites and
food sources, promotes a diversity of animal life, including a
     Characteristic grassland herbs such as lupine, goldenrod
species, and blazing-star, as well as silver sage, rabbitbrush,
and other shrubs, lend diversity to the: vegetation but do not
contribute significantly to overall productivity or cover.

     2Bird faunas include a number of typical prairie species,
including western meadowlark, horned lark and lark bunting,
golden eagle, Swainson's hawk, marsh hawk,  red tailed hawk,
kestrel, merlin, prairie falcon, and burrowing owl.  Upland game
birds include sharptail grouse and Hungarian partridge.  The
ring-necked pheasant is particularly characteristic of agricultural
areas.

     3The bottomland forest consists o.J: climax stands of green
ash, American elm, box elder, and burr oak, with successional
stands dominated by willow and cottonwood.

                               800
-------
      TABLE 9-38:
SELECTED CHARACTERISTIC SPECIES OF MAJOR
BEULAH SCENARIO BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES
     COMMUNITY
      CHARACTERISTIC
          PLANTS
  CHARACTERISTIC
      ANIMALS
 Grassland/cropland
 mosiac
  Needle and thread grass
  Western wheatgrass
  Blue grama
  Little bluestem
  Silver sage
  Blazing-star
Pronghorn antelope
Jackrabbit species
Ground squirrel
  species
Badger
Meadowlark
Golden eagle
Marsh hawk	
Short-horned
  lizard
 Riparian woodlands
  Cottonwood
  Green ash
  American elm
  Burr oak
  Willow species
  Buffaloberry
Whitetail deer
Porcupine
Tree squirrel
Skunk
Mink
Flycatchers
Leopard frog
Garter snake
wide variety of birds.1  Typical mammals of woodlands habitats
include porcupine, shrews, and whitefooted mice.  Many predators
and omnivores, including the red fox, mink, weasel, striped skunk,
and raccoon, prefer the wooded floodplain or ravine habitats where
there is both cover and a variety of prey.  Game animals include
wild turkey, cottontail rabbit, tree squirrels, and whitetailed
deer, which also range into the prairies adjacent to the major
stream courses.  To the west, along the course of the Little
Missouri River, lies an area of eroded badland topography.


     1 Birds include large numbers of insect eaters such as the
vireos, wrens, and flycatchers.  The bald eagle once nested along
the Missouri River, and an active nest was reported in 1975 for
McLean County, within the study area, although it subsequently
failed.
                               801
-------
Although beyond the immediate scenario area, these badlands may
potentially have high recreational use."

     Aquatic communities in the scenario area vary from small
lakes in the glaciated prairie to the large impoundments on the
Missouri River and its tributaries.  Fisheries are principally
of the warm-water type, except within and below reservoirs, where
both warm-water and cold-water species occur.  The Missouri River
between Lakes Oahe and Sakakawea is considered to be one of the
outstanding sport fisheries of the Great Plains.

     The biota described above is subject to several man-made
stresses which may intensify throughout the study period.  Chief
among these influences is the expansion of cultivated land since
the early 1960's.  Substantial reductions have occurred in the
floodplain forest of the Missouri between Lake Sakakawea and Lake
Oahe.  Draining wetlands and eliminating fencerow vegetation has
reduced cover for small animals and water fowl.  Agriculture also
contributes sediment, pesticides, and nutrients from fertilizers,
through runoff,  and most impoundments in the western part of the
state (except main stem reservoirs) are now heavily contaminated
with nutrients (eutrophic).2  Damming the Missouri River has re-
duced flooding and meandering.  This change has apparently reduced
productivity in the floodplain forest and promotes the replacement
of successional cottonwood and willow stands by hardwoods.3

9.5.3  Factors Producing Impacts

     Four factors associated with construction and operation of
the scenario facilities (a power plant, two Lurgi and two Synthane
gasification plants, and their associated mines) can cause ecolog-
ical impacts:  land use, population increases, water use and


     Respite the harshness of the environment, wildlife is
diverse within the badlands.  Species for which these areas con-
stitute especially high-quality habitat include mule deer, cotton-
tail rabbit, and bighorn sheep (introduced in the 1950's and now
present in nuntable numbers).  Many hawk and falcon species find
good nesting habitat in the rugged terrain, as does the golden
eagle.  Prairie dog distribution follows the grassland portions
of the badlands, and a black-footed ferret was sighted near Medora
in 1973.

     2Henegar, D.L.  "Fisheries Division, Western District and
Statewide Research Report."  North Dakota Outdoors, Vol. 38
(No. 7, 1976), pp. 18-20.

     3Johnson, W.C., R. L. Burgess, and W.R. Kaemmerer.  "Forest
Overstory Vegetation and Environment on the Missouri River Flood-
plain in North Dakota."  Ecological Monographs, Vol. 46  (Winter
1976), pp. 59-84.

                               802
-------
water pollution, and air quality changes.  With the exception of
land use, the quantities of each of these factors associated with
the scenario facilities were given in previous sections of this
chapter.  Land-use quantities are given in this section, and the
others are summarized.  Land use by each type of facility pro-
posed for the Beulah area is given in Table 9-39.  During the 30-
year facility lifetime, 15,000 acres are used by a gasification
plant-mine combination.  Energy developers have already leased
existing farmland to be used for surface coal mining.1

     Manpower requirements associated with construction and
operation of the scenario energy facilities will cause an increase
in the urban population in the scenario area.  Peak total manpower
requirement is about 5,600 for each gasification plant-mine com-
bination and 3,200 for the power plant-mine combination.  After
facility construction is completed, manpower required for opera-
tion of each facility is about 1,100.

     Water for the scenario facilities operating at the expected
load factor range from 4,891 (Lurgi plant) to 23,884 acre-ft/yr
(power plant)  assuming high wet cooling  (Table 9-16).  The water
source for the facilities, Lake Sakakawea, has an average annual
discharge of 15,576,750 acre-ft/yr and minimum discharge of
956,340 acre-ft/yr (Table 9-12).  Effluents from the energy facil-
ities will be ponded and will contaminate surface' water or ground-
water only if pond liners leak"or erode.  The annual concentration
of S02 in the plant vicinity will range from 0.7 (Lurgi plant) to
1.8 ug/m3 (power plant and mine).  Typical and peak concentrations
of criteria pollutants from the power plant-mine combination will
be well below all federal and most state ambient standards.  Only
the North Dakota 1-hour S02 and N02 standards will be violated;
however, the N02 standard will be exceeded by a factor of 7,  Typ-
ical and peak concentrations of criteria pollutants from the Lurgi
and Synthane facilities are not expected to exceed any federal am-
bient air standards, although the state 1-hour N02 standard may be
exceeded by the Synthane plants.

9.5.4  Impacts

     The nature of the ecological impacts caused by these factors
depends on the plant and animal community type on which they  are
imposed.  For example, the impact of land use depends on whether
grassland or shrubland communities are being used.  Some of the
land-use trends are now evident or could occur regardless of
energy-related growth.  A scenario, which calls for power, Lurgi,
and Synthane plants and their associated mines to be developed

      Johnson, Jerome E., Robert E. Beck, and Cameron D. Sillers.
The North Dakota Farmer/Rancher Looks at Severed Mineral Rights,
Agricultural Economics Miscellaneous Report No. 18.  Fargo, N.D.:
North Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Econom-
ics,  1975.

                               803
-------
     TABLE 9-39:  LAND USE BY SCENARIO FACILITIES AT BEULAH
             FACILITY
                                             LAND USE'
ACRES/YEAR
ACRES/30 YEARS
 Conversion Facilities
   Power Plant (3,000 MWe)
   Lurgi or Synthane Gasification
     Plant (250 MMcfd)b

 Associated Surface Coal Mine
   For Power Plant (19.2 MMtpy)
   For Lurgi Plant (10.8 MMtpy)
   For Synthane Plant (9.6  'MMtpy)
    840
    500
    500
     2,400

       805


    25,200
    15,000
    15,000
MWe = megawatt-electric
MMcfd = million cubic feet per day
MMtpy = million tons per year
 The land used by the mines will increase every year by the amounts
given in the table for 30 years, the lifetime of the facilities.
However, the land occupied by the plants will not vary after con-
struction is completed.

 Two Lurgi and two Synthane plants are hypothesized for the Beulah
area, but data is given for one Lurgi or one Synthane plant and
its associated mine.
according to a specified time schedule  (see Table 9-1)  is  used
here as the vehicle through which the extent of the impacts are
explored.  Impacts caused by land use, population increases,
water use and water pollution, and air quality changes  are dis-
cussed.

A.  To 1980

     Most of the early ecological impacts will be due to construc-
tion activities.  By 1980, land use by the urban population and
the power plant  (the only plant on-line by 1980) will be 4,035
acres, which is  0.2 percent of the total acres in Mercer,  Oliver,
and McLean Counties (Table 9-40).  Table 9-41 shows that energy
facilities and urban population are expected to use grassland/
cropland habitat.  Nearly 50 percent of the land in Mercer, Oliver,
and McLean Counties is cropland and about 50 percent is grassland
used for grazing.  Based on this 1.1 ratio of cropland  (for culti-
vation) to grassland (for grazing), it is assumed in Table 9-41
that one-half of land use associated with energy development
(Table 9-39) will be cropland and one-half will be grassland.  If
so, forage which could be produced on 2,018 acres (50 percent of
land used by 1980) would support 55 cows with calves and 3 sheep
                               804
-------
         TABLE  9-40:
LAND USE IN  THE  BEULAH  SCENARIO AREA
(in  acres)

By Energy Facilities
Conversion Facilities
Power Plant (3,000 MWe)
1st Lurgi Plant (250 MMcfd)
2nd Lurqi Plant (250 MMcfd)
1st Synthane Plant (250 MMcfd)
2nd Synthane Plant (250 MMcfd)
Associated Surface Coal Mines
For Power Plant (19.2 MMtpy)
For 1st Lurgi Plant (10.8 MMtpy)
For 2nd Lurgi Plant (10.3 MMtpy)
For 1st Synthane Plant (9.6 MMtpy)
For 2nd Synthane Plant (9.6 MMtpy)
Subtotal
By Urban Population
Mercer County
Residential
Streets
Commercial
Public and Community Facilities
Industry
Subtotal
Oliver County
Residential
Streets
Commercial
Public and Community Facilities
Industry
Suototal
McLean County
Residential
Streets
Commercial
Public and Community Facilities
Industry
Subtotal
Subtotal
Total Land Use
Total Land In Beulah Scenario Area 2,449,920
Mercer County 666,880
Oliver County 1,321,600
McLean County 461,440
1975
















320
64
8
20
32
444

110
22
3
7
11
153

575
115
14
36
58
798
1,395
1,395




1980


2,400










2,400


410
82
10
25
41
568

150
30
4
9
15
208

620
124
15
38
62
859
1,635
4,035




1990


2,400
805
805



3,400
4,000
1,500


17,910


430
86
10
27
43
596

140
28
3
9
14
194

665
133
16
41
66
921
1,711
19,621




2000


2,400
805
805
805
805

16,800
9,000
6,500
2,500

40,420


500
100
12
31
50
693

170
34
4
10
17
235

375
175
21
54
88
1,213
2,141
42,561




MWe - megawatt-electric     MMcfd = million  cubic feet per day

aValues in  each column are cumulative for  year given.
                                    MMtpy = million tons  per year
 Acres used by  the urban population were  calculated using population  estimates in Table 9-29 for
Mercer,  Oliver, and McLean Counties assuming:  residential land = 50  acres per 1,000 population;
streets  =  10 acres per 1,000 population;  commercial land = 1.2 acres  per  1,000 population;  public
and community facilities = 3.1 acres per  1,000 population; and industry = 5 acres per 1,000 popu-
lation.  Adapted from THK Associates.   Impact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to  an Oil
Shale Industry:  Regional Development and Land Use Study.  Denver,  Colo.:  THK Associates,  19~4.
                                           805
-------
       TABLE 9-41:
HABITAT LOSS OVER TIME IN THE BEULAH
SCENARIO AREAa
(acres)
HABITAT
Grassland/
Cropland
Valley
Shrublands and
Forests
1980
4,035

160
1990
19,621

260
2000
42,561

290
POST
2000a
92,961

2,080
         Assumes  that land use by urban population and
        scenario  facilities given in Table 9-39 win pri-
        marily occur on grassland or cropland in Mercer,
        Oliver, and McLean counties.  Land use by trans-
        mission lines and water supply lines (not included
        in Table  9-39)  are included in this table.
in a year (Table 9-42) . l  By comparison,, Mercer County had an
inventory of 53,125 cattle and calves and 2,192 sheep and lambs
in 1974.2  The impact of lost cropland on yield will vary with
weather conditions and with potential improvements in cultivation
practices or plant varieties.3  Using the current figure of 25
bushels per acre, the loss of 2,018 acres of cropland would reduce
yield by a maximum of 50,450 bushels, assuming all cropland was in


     1 Grazing value of land is usually estimated in terms of acres
per Animal Unit Month (AUM).  An AUM is defined as the amount of
forage required to support one cow and calf, or five sheep, for a
month.  AUM's relate only to production of forage used by sheep
and cattle; differences in food habits make the unit inappropriate
for wildlife.  An average of 3 acres per AUM was assumed for cal-
culations .

     2U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1974
Census of Agriculture; Preliminary Report, Mercer County, North
Dakota.Washington, D.C.:Government Printing Office,1976.

     3 It has been suggested that North Dakota wheat yields could
rise from 25 to 112 bushels per acre through such improvements.
Stewart, Robert E., Jr., Alan Colbert, and Jerome Johnson, eds.
Conference on the Future of Agriculture in Southwestern North
Dakota, Held at Dickenson State College, Dickenson, May 197T7
Little Missouri Grassland Study, Interim Report No. 3.  Fargo,
N.D.:  Little Missouri Grassland Study, 1973.
                               806
-------
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                                         807
-------
wheat  (Table 9-42).  By contrast, 1,361,547 bushels of wheat were
harvested in Mercer County in 1974.1

     The relatively small amount of habitat removed directly in
this part of the scenario time frame is expected to have only
locally adverse impacts on wildlife, mostly small species.  A
possible exception is the pronghorn antelope.  Beulah lies in the
center of an area of high-quality habitat, and the disturbance
resulting from the construction of the power plant may cause some
animals to avoid the area.

     The presence of large construction forces has been correlated
with increases in illegal big game hunting.  However, in the
Beulah area, almost all land is owned privately, and most land-
owners will probably post their lands as the first construction
forces move into the area.  While a certain amount of trespassing
will probably occur, poaching is not expected to reduce the re-
productive capacity of game populations.  In this respect, the
Beulah scenario differs from other scenarios where large amounts
of unpatrolled public lands exist.

     Construction populations will also increase the demand for
legal hunting and fishing.  While upland game (sharptail grouse,
pheasant, Hungarian partridge, and cottontail)  populations will
probably be able to withstand this, increased use of the publicly
owned game management areas may call for additional controls.
The supply of deer, antelope, and turkey may not be sufficient to
meet potential hunting demand.

     By 1980, manpower required for construction of facilities
will have caused an increase in the population in Mercer, Oliver,
and McLean Counties to 23,500, a 19 percent increase over the
1975 population.  Population increases are expected to occur pri-
marily in Beulah and the small nearby towns.  Ecological impacts
associated with population increases will not be significant by
1980.

     Fisheries in the area are maintained by stocking, and the
hatcheries presently supplying this area of North Dakota have
slack capacity.  Thus, existing fisheries are probably adequate
to supply the increased demand of the 1975-1980 period.

     If a reservoir of 11,000 acre-feet capacity is constructed
on the Knife River to supply the Lurgi plant, the area's fishery
potential will be changed.  Situated upstream of the industrial
sites, the reservoir would not be subject to siltation problems
resulting from construction.  The reservoir would trap sediment


     l\J.S.f Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.  1974
Census of Agriculture; Preliminary Report, Mercer County, North
Dakota.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office,1976.

                               808
-------
from the upper portion of the Knife River drainage which, in
conjunction with controlled releases downstream, could help alle-
viate sedimentation problems in the lower Knife caused by either
industry or agriculture.  The lake itself would probably support
a warm-water sport fishery.  The river's present populations of
sauger, walleye, pike, and channel cat would benefit from stabili-
zation of downstream flows.

     Population growth in the Beulah area may result in discharges
of municipal sewage effluent, at least temporarily, into the Knife
River and Heart Butte Creek.  Such discharges typically have large
concentrations of dissolved oxygen.  Depending on the quantities
discharged and the base flow in the stream, these pollutants could
cause serious problems for several miles downstream.  Nuisance
blooms of algae and lowered dissolved oxygen levels could result.
If all of the towns affected by population booms were to discharge
into the Knife or its tributary, Spring Creek, pollutants might
have a localized impact on the Missouri River.

     Ecological impacts associated with water use and pollution
(from the facilities)  and air quality changes will not be signi-
ficant by 1980.

B.  To 1990

     By 1990, the power and two Lurgi plants will be on-line.
Land use by the urban population and energy facilities will total
19,621 acres, 0.8 percent of the land in Mercer, Oliver, and
McLean Counties (Table 9-40).  Forage which could be produced on
grassland used (assuming 50 percent of land used by 1990 is
grassland)  would support 270 cows with calves and 14 sheep (Table
9-42).  The cropland foregone (assuming 50 percent of land used
by 1990 is cropland and assuming wheat is planted on all cropland
used)  would support 245,275 bushels of wheat (Table 9-42).

     Habitat fragmentation due to urban and industrial growth
around Beulah will probably begin by the end of the second
scenario decade, affecting, for example, more than half of the
high-quality antelope habitat around Beulah.  The number of
antelope using this area will decline, and the regional popula-
tions will reflect the loss of this key area.  Deer using this
same area will probably also show local declines because the
Knife River Valley and Spring Creek are key habitats, providing
food and protection from severe winter weather.  The cyclical
nature of unemployment could induce some workers to remain in the
Beulah area between construction peaks, and ready access to deer
populations, especially in winter, could make game poaching attrac-
tive.   Antelope might also suffer, although their wideranging
habits make access more difficult.  If poaching becomes widespread,
                               809
-------
the number of deer and antelope that could safely be harvested by
legitimate hunters would decrease.l

     Demand for hunting and fishing will continue to increase over
the 1980-1990 decade.  Fishing pressure could exceed the capacity
of existing hatcheries, but the two large reservoirs on the
Missouri will probably continue to meet demands for fishing, expe-
cially if recent introduction of such open-water fish as coho, lake
trout, and lake whitefish are successful.  Upland gamebirds could
become somewhat scarcer around Beulah and Bismarck-Mandan.  Con-
tinued expansion of cropland and reduction of fencerow and road-
side cover will also lower production of small game during the
1980-1990 time frame (particularly ring-necked pheasant, Hungarian
partridge, and sharptail grouse).  Demand for big game hunting
will exceed supply by a growing margin.

     Human population size will fluctuate markedly between 1980
and 1990, exhibiting two distinct peaks:  one around 1981 and one
around 1986.  By 1990, urban population in Mercer, Oliver, and
McLean Counties will be 24,750, a 23 percent increase over 1975
population.  Increased populations will place greater demands on
the more accessible outdoor recreational resources of the area.
On or adjacent to the two mainstem Missouri reservoirs, most con-
tinuing human activity will be confined to specific public access
areas, although displacement of game onto private land during
hunting seasons is likely.  Deterioration of plant communities
due to recreational use is more likely to occur in the Little
Missouri Badlands.  Depending on the access and use restrictions
placed on these lands by the Forest Service, there is a potential
for serious erosion problems arising from vehicle use.  Even with
stringent regulations, a certain amount of illegal use of off-
road vehicles is likely to occur due to the difficulty of enforc-
ing regulations over such an extensive area.  Presently, the
Little Missouri channel is used in winter as a snowmobile course.
Additional use, proportional to population increases, could place
a potential stress on deer.2

     Population peaks of the early and middle 1980's could result
in temporary discharges of municipal sewage effluents into the
Knife River and Spring Creek.  Impacts of such discharge could be
exacerbated in the 1980-1990 time frame if mine dewatering and
runoff control results in lowered base flow in these two streams.


     Because illegal hunting takes pregnant females and non-
breeding young, it can reduce the number of breeding adults.

     2A recently published study on white-tailed deer suggests
that increased movement such as may be caused by harassment could
occasion substantial increases in energy expenditures.  Moen, A.N.
"Energy Conservation of White-Tailed Deer in the Winter."  Ecology,
Vol. 57  (Winter 1976) , pp. 192-98.

                               810
-------
The extent and seriousness of nutrient enrichment problems depend
both on the amount and character of effluents discharged and on
the base flows of affected streams.

     Water use and air quality changes associated with energy
development are not expected to cause significant ecological
impacts by 1990.

C.  To 2000

     By 2000, all of the scenario facilities hypothesized for the
Beulah area will be on-line.  Land use by urban population and
energy facilities will be 42,561 acres, 1.7 percent of total acres
in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean Counties (Table 9-40) .  Forage which
could be produced on grassland used would support 585 cows with
calves and 30 sheep; cropland used could be cultivated to yield
532,025 bushels of wheat (Table 9-42).

     Ecological impacts associated with land use and population
increase by 2000 will be similar to those described for 1990.
Beulah and Hazen will be centers of the high construction popula-
tion in 1995.  By 2000, the urban population in Mercer, Oliver,
and McLean Counties is expected to be 30,900, a 54 percent increase
over 1975 population (Table 9-29).

     Ecological impacts caused by water use and water pollution
associated with energy development will be similar to those
described by 1990.

     Emissions of criteria air pollutants under most conditions
will not result in ground-level conceatrations likely to produce
chronic damage to range or cropland vegetation.  S02 concentra-
tions similar to those causing chronic damage to wheat under ex-
perimental conditions may occur for brief periods.  Therefore,
S02 emissions are not likely to significantly limit crop or for-
age yields.  The addition of sulfur to mineral cycles as particu-
late fallout or rain washout might be beneficial in sulfur-
deficient soils of the area.1

     Trace elements, including mercury, fluorine, lead, arsenic,
zinc, copper, and uranium, will be emitted chiefly from the power
     !Painter, E.P.  "Sulfur in Forages."  North Dakota Agricul-
tural Experiment Station Bimonthly Bulletin, Vol. 5 (No. 5, 1943),
pp. 20-22.

                               811
-------
plants.1  These elements will eventually enter the crop and
grassland mineral cycles, but their pathways through the ecosystem
are not well known.  Therefore, the exact impact of their intro-
duction cannot be predicted.  Trace elememt buildup in both soils
and vegetation has been recorded downwind of several power plants,
but consequent toxic effects have not been documented.

D.  After 2000

     During the 30-year lifetime of the energy facilities, land
use by the urban population and energy fcicilities will total
92,961 acres, 4 percent of the land in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean
counties.  Forage which could be produced on grassland used would
support 1,278 cows with calves and 65 she;ep in a year, which is
1 percent of cows with calves and 2 percent of sheep in the 1974
inventory of Mercer and Oliver counties (Table 9-42).  Wheat which
could be cultivated on cropland used would be 1,162,025 bushels,
56 percent of the wheat harvest in Mercer and Oliver counties in
1974 (Table 9-42) .

     Of the 92,961 acres used, 7,761 acres will be permanently
lost to urban population and facility structures and 85,200 will
be used by mining.  The long-term ecological impact of mining
will depend on the success with which these lands are reclaimed.
The climate of North Dakota is generally favorable for reclamation,
and several land-use options are possible;.2  Restoration of mined
areas for use as cropland is typically attractive because of its
relatively low cost.  It is also possible to restore these mined
areas to a mixed-grass prairie, consisting (at least in part) of
native species, and suitable for grazing.   Normal succession to a
mature grassland in similar areas takes 15-20 years after
           North and South Dakota lignites have locally high con-
centrations of uranium, in excess of 0.1 percent.  Swanson,
Vernon F., et al.  Composition and Trace Element Content of Coal,
Northern Great Plains Area, U.S., Department of the Interior Re-
port 52-83.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1974,
p. 7.

     2Sandoval, F.M., et al.  "Lignite Mine Spoils in the Northern
Great Plains:  Characteristics and Potential for Reclamation."
Paper presented before the Research and Applied Technology Sym-
posium on Mined Land Reclamation.  Pittsburgh, Pa.:  Bituminous
Coal Research, Inc., 1973.

                               812
-------
disturbance.1  Wildlife habitat values can be restored for many
upland game species by the use of woody plantings for food and
cover. 2

     The resemblance between reclaimed mined areas and early
stages of grassland development may result in colonization by
species which typically characterize early stages of grassland
development, such as various ground squirrels, the western har-
vest mouse, and horned lark.  In mature grasslands and successful
reclaimed areas, antelope, sharptail grouse, jack-rabbits, and a
variety of small birds (typified by the chestnut-collared long-
spur) are characteristically predominant.  However, species
adapted to croplands will differ little from those which may be
expected to colonize newly reclaimed areas.

     Certain overburden characteristics could potentially limit
the success of reclamation, at least locally.  High sodium levels
occur in some of the strata overlying several existing mines in
western North Dakota, and the problem appears to be widespread
over the lignite fields of the Fort Union Formation.6  Unless
carefully buried, these layers could inhibit plant growth and
prove highly susceptible to erosion.  Further, even if buried,
increased infiltration of water leaching through the unconsoli-
dated spoil material could bring salts from these layers to the
surface.

     Ecological impacts after 2000 associated with population
increases, water use and water pollution, and air quality changes
will be similar for those prior to 2000.
              J.M.  "Secondary Plant Succession on Muscatine Is-
land, Iowa."  Ecology, Vol. 11 (June 1930), pp. 577-88; Tolstead,
W.L.  "Plant Communities and Secondary Succession in South-Central
South Dakota."  Ecology, Vol. 22 (July 1941), pp. 322-28.

     2Early experience at the Knife River Coal Company's Beulah
mine has shown that upgraded spoil piles, planted with a mixture
of wildlife food plants, are abundant in upland species such as
grouse, pheasant, and rabbits, which typically suffer heavy
losses because of winter storms.   Large numbers of white-tailed
deer from the adjacent Knife River Valley also shelter in the
area intermittently.  Legal provisions requiring that spoils be
graded to resemble the original topography under these circum-
stances reduces potential value for wildlife.

     3Packer, Paul E.  Rehabilitation Potentials and Limitations
of Surface-Mined Land in"the Northern Great Plains^General
Technical Report INT-14.  Ogden,  Utah:  U.S., Department of Agri-
culture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment
Station, 1974.

                               813
-------
9.5.5  Summary of Ecological Impacts

     Four factors associated with construction and operation of
the scenario facilities can significantly affect the ecological
impacts of energy development:  land use, population increases,
water use-and water pollution, and air quality changes.  Land use
by the urban population and energy facilities during the 30-year
lifetime of the facilities will total 92,961 acres, 4 percent of
the total acres in Mercer, Oliver, and McLean counties.  By 2000,
urban population in these counties is expected to be 30,900, a 54
percent increase over the 1975 population.  Water required for the
scenario facilities (operating at the expected load factor and
assuming high wet cooling) will be 46,000 acre-ft/yr which repre-
sents 5 percent of the minimum discharge and 0.3 percent of the
average annual discharge of the water source, Lake Sakakawea.  Ef-
fluents from the energy facilities will be ponded to prevent water
pollution.  Typical and peak concentrations of criteria pollutants
from the plants are not expected to cause significant ecological
impacts.

     Table 9-43 summarizes the effects of the ecological impacts
on the area's game species, rare or endangered species, and
selected indicators of ecological change.

     The major scenario influences on deer and antelope popula-
tions in the area are expected to be localized habitat fragmen-
tation and, possibly, illegal harvest.  This will probably be
more important for area-wide antelope population because changes
will occur to the less plentiful quality habitat.

     Upland game is expected to begin a localized decline in the
early 1980's.  Wild turkey, with harvests carefully controlled
by the state of North Dakota, will probably not show major declines
attributable to the scenario.  However, many species are likely
to experience regionwide  reductions in numbers as a result of
clearing grasslands, wetlands, and river bottoms for agriculture.

     Endangered species,  including bald eagles and peregrine
falcons that are occasionally seen in the area, may be adversely
affected by the scenario.  Both species are subject to illegal
shooting.  Bald eagles also tend to be sensitive to human dis-
turbance within I or 2 miles of a nest; increased human population
and activity along the Missouri could therefore reduce the likeli-
hood of restoring a breeding population of eagles.  The number of
peregrines visiting the area is probably controlled by conditions
in their breeding range;  consequently, the potential impact of
illegal shooting in the Beulah area on the number of birds seen
there from year to year is difficult to specify.

     The black-footed ferret is known to be in the area from a
recent sighting near Medora but has not been located in the
Beulah vicinity.  The major threat to this species, aside from

                               814
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direct destruction of habitat, would be through reduction of
prairie dog numbers by varmint hunters.

     The endangered Northern Kit (swift)  Fox is susceptible to
traps set for other species and is mistaken for a young coyote
by hunters.  With increased numbers of people participating in
these activities, this species could be reduced in numbers or
lost altogether.

     Table 9-44 summarizes the major factors producing ecological
impacts in the Beulah scenario area.  These have been grouped
into three classes, based on their geographic extent and the
number of species they affect.

     S02 pollution is given a Class C rating because its impact
on vegetation, measured as productivity,  will be at least an order
of magnitude less than the effects of normal year-to-year varia-
tions in climatic factors and grazing pressure.  The impact of
land-use changes on agricultural production will likewise be small,
usually less than 0.1 percent of county totals.

     Most of the impacts of rising human populations fall into
Class B, namely:  illegal shooting, increased use of delicate
badlands areas, and discharge of sewage treatment plant effluents
into surface waters. Conversion of native rangeland to cropland
as mining and reclamation proceed is also included.  These impacts
rate higher in severity because they can potentially alter the
size of areawide populations of some animals or bring about
shifts in community composition in habitats of restricted occur-
rence.

     Class A impacts are considered to be the pivotal problems
responsible for the projected animal population impacts discussed
above.  In the Beulah scenario, habitat removal, fragmentation,
and the incidental disturbances coincident with urban growth clus-
ter within an area of high-quality wildlife habitat.  Most criti-
cally, these impacts are difficult to manage.

9.6  OVERALL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS AT BEULAH

     The intended energy benefit from the hypothetical develop-
ments in the Beulah area will be production and export of 3,000
MWe of electricity and 1 billion cubic feet per day of synthetic
natural gas by the year 2000.  Locally, the benefits include in-
creases in retail trade, income to residents, state and local
governments, and secondary economic development.

     Social and economic impacts associated with energy develop-
ment in the Beulah area tend to be a function of the labor and
capital intensity of developments and, when multiple facilities
are involved, of scheduling their construction.  These factors
determine the pace and extent of migration of people to the

                               817
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scenario area as well as the financial and managerial capability
of local governments to provide .services and facilities for the
increased population.  Labor forces increase the population
directly and indirectly.  More labor'is required for construction
of the facilities than for operation;  thus suitable scheduling
can minimize population instability.  The power plant-mine com-
bination is less labor intensive than the gasification facilities.
Taxes which apply to the energy facilities (a property tax, sales
tax, severance tax, royalty payments,  and energy conversion tax)
will generate revenue for local, state, and federal governments.
Solutions to problems concerning who gets the revenue benefits
and who provides public services and facilities needed by the
increased population in the scenario area involve all levels of
government and their ability to relate to each other.  North
Dakota's state government will financially assist growing commu-
nities by giving them a portion of revenue obtained from mineral
leasing and severance taxes.  Impacts will be difficult to handle
in small communities which do not have sufficient planning capac-
ities to manage growth.  Many of these impacts would be mitigated
if people who have migrated out of the area returned and were hired
along with some local unemployed laborers (to meet the manpower re-
quirements for energy facility construction and operation).

     If all of the facilities hypothesized are constructed, social,
economic, and political changes in the 3-county area will stem pri-
marily from the overall 40 percent growth in population.  The dis-
tribution of this growth will determine the severity of the impacts.
The new jobs are expected to raise the median income in the area
about 50 percent above the 1975 level.  The increased demand for
housing will be largely met by mobile homes.  Medical care and
other professional services are expected to be seriously lacking
throughout the 3-county area.  As a result of the development,
agriculture's dominant position in the economy will be replaced by
coal-related sectors.  Exporting coal would significantly reduce
both the adverse and beneficial effects of much of the population
growth, as well as lower property tax benefits to local governments.

     Air quality impacts  associated with  energy development  at
Beulah  are related  primarily  to quantities of  pollutants  emitted
by  the  facilities and  to  diffuse emissions associated with popu-
lation  increases.   The  power  plant emits  greater pollutant concen-
trations than  the gasification plant,  but ambient air concentra-
tions associated with  the expanded population  may be higher  than
those resulting  from conversion facility  emissions.

     As presently configured, the planned facilities will have  a
minimal effect on the  local  air quality.  The  four gasification
plants  do not  cause any North Dakota  (except the 1-hour NOX  stan-
dard in the  case of Synthane) or federal  ambient standards to be
exceeded.  However,  although  power plant  emissions meet federal
ambient standards,  they exceed the North  Dakota 1-hour  SOa and
    ambient  standards.  In addition,  general urban

                               819
-------
development at Beulah will cause both the federal and state
3-hour hydrocarbons standards to be exceeded by 1985.  Also, the
plumes of the plants will be visible from many locations in the
area, and the average long-range visibility will be reduced about
10 percent when all the facilities are operating and to a greater
extent during periods of air stagnation.

     The S02 emissions could be decreased through an improvement
in scrubber efficiency, the precombustion washing of the coal,
or through a reduction in plant operating capacity.  Although
scrubbers for N02 are still in the experimental stage, these
emissions can be controlled, to a limited extent, by boiler firing
modifications such as staged firing, low excess air, and reduction
of plant capacity, or by exporting coal.

     Water impacts associated with energy development in the Beulah
area are a function of the water required and effluents produced
by energy facilities and the associated population.  The power
plant requires the most water, the Lurgi, the least.  Effluents
from all energy facilities will be ponded to prevent contamina-
tion of surface water and groundwater in the scenario area.

     The water consumption attributed to the energy facilities
and their associated development is not expected to significantly
deplete groundwater or surface-water resources.  Although there
will be no intentional discharges of pollutants to groundwaters
or surface waters, deterioration of local water quality may result
from the failure of settling and holding ponds and the improper
disposal of urban sanitary wastes.  The integrity of the storage
ponds may be breached via the leaching of chemicals through the
pond liners or from the erosion of pond dikes; both possibilities
will become more likely as the facilities age.  Sewage disposal,
although not presently a problem in the area, is expected to be-
come serious as the urban growth out-paces the ability of munici-
palities to respond.  This problem will be most evident during
periods of peak growth which, for this hypothesized development,
occur in the mid-19 80's and mid-1990's.

     Although surface waters are most abundant in this scenario,
technological changes could further reduce depletions.  The poten-
tial exists for using wet-dry cooling towers for the hypothetical
conversion facilities in this scenario but at considerable expense.
Local water quality could be mitigated through the installation
of recyclable waste disposal systems or packaged systems for mo-
bile home parks (which compose a large portion of the new housing).

     Ecological impacts associated with energy development in the
Beulah area depend on land use, population increases, water use
and water pollution, and air quality changes.  Land use by surface
mining activities will be greater than that by energy facility
structures and population needs.  However, much of the land used


                               820
-------
by mining can be reclaimed.  The average rainfall of 10-20 inches
annually and well-developed soil in the scenario area will make
revegetation likely.  However, when and if the original plant
communities will be reestablished is uncertain.

     Ecological impacts will stem largely from the population
increases.  Therefore, the area surrounding Beulah will probably
be the most severely impacted.  As a result of habitat fragmenta-
tion, the productivity of selected species will likely decrease.
Poaching is also expected to be a serious problem unless positive
steps are initiated in game protection and management.  Other
impacts of human activities will include simplification of eco-
system structure (with increases in relative abundance of fewer
species) and loss of soil nutrients due to erosion.

     Controls over human use of the area, such as permits for
recreational use and zoning, would minimize attrition of habitat.
Provisions for habitat control in the river valley and habitat
management programs on farmlands can also affect changes to vege-
tation and animal abundance.

     Ecological impacts associated with water use and water
pollution and air quality changes are not expected to be signi-
ficant.
                               821
-------
                           CHAPTER 10

                        LOCALIZED IMPACTS
10.1  INTRODUCTION

     In addition to potential site-specific impacts of energy
development reported in the preceding six chapters, a number of
other impacts may be experienced in the vicinity of energy extrac-
tion and conversion facilities.  This chapter discusses these
"localized" impacts.  These are discussed here rather than in the
six site-specific chapters either because; they do not differ sig-
nificantly from site to site or because too little is known about
them to treat them on a site-specific basis.  Included are several
air impacts categories, impacts from trace element emissions,
problems associated with solid waste treatment and disposal, noise
impacts, aesthetic impacts, public health impacts, and occupational
health and safety impacts.

10.2  AIR IMPACTS

     Ten categories of potential local air impacts are discussed;
sulfates, oxidants, fine particulates, long-range visibility,
plume opacity, cooling tower salt deposition, cooling tower fog-
ging and icing, fugitive dust, startup arid shutdown of conversion
facilities, and air impacts of geothermal development.

10.2.1  Sulfates

     Sulfates result from the oxidation of sulfur dioxide as
stack gas plumes mix with air.  Because of the complexity of the
chemical reactions forming sulfates and the very small particle
size of sulfate aerosols  (in the submicron range), predicting
atmospheric distribution of sulfates is very difficult.  For ex-
ample, sulfuric acid (a sulfate) is formed from the oxidation of
sulfur dioxide (SOa), and then reacts with other components in
the atmosphere to produce salts such as ammonium sulfate.  A sum-
mary of measured atmospheric sulfate concentrations in selected
western locations in 1974 is provided in Table 10-1.  In most
locations average sulfate concentrations are highest in the win-
ter and fall.
                               822
-------
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-------
     Whether energy development will significantly increase these
sulfate concentrations generally depends; on 862 emission levels
and the rate at which SO2 is converted to sulfates in the atmos-
phere.  One study suggests the peak conversion rate of S02 to
sulfates in plumes is less than 1 percent each hour.1  Although
conversion rate estimates vary from 1 to 20 percent per hour,
20 percent rates have only been associated with oil-fired- power
plants,3 probably due to finer particle size found in oil-fired
plant emissions.  Rates for coal-fired power plants have been
reported at 1 to 3 percent per hour.  Ground-level sulfate con-
centrations which would result from the energy development sce-
narios at each of the six sites are given in Table 10-2 for SO2
to sulfate conversion rates of 1 to 10 percent per hour.  Con-
version rates greater than 5 percent per hour could result in
24-hour ambient sulfate levels large enough to produce increases
in mortality (discussed in the public health impacts Section
10.7).1*  There are currently no federal standards for ambient con-
centrations of sulfates, but Montana and North Dakota have estab-
lished 24-hour sulfates standards of 12 micrograms per cubic
meter  (yg/m3)  not to be exceeded more than once per year.5  Fa-
cilities modeled at Colstrip, Montana, and Beulah, North Dakota,
would not exceed this standard at 10 percent conversion rates
(Table 10-2).   Sulfate aerosols also affect visibility, as de-
scribed in Section 10.2.4 below.
     1Nordsieck, R.,  et al.  Impact of Energy Resource Development
on Reactive Air Pollutants in the Western United States, Draft Re-
port to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Contract No. 68-01-
2801.  Westlake Village, Calif.:  Environmental Research and Tech-
nology, Western Technical Center, 1975.

     2U.S., Congress, House of Representatives, Committee on
Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Environment and the Atmos-
phere.  Review of Research Related to Sulfates in the Atmosphere,
Committee Print.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office,
1976.

     3 Ibid.

     ^U.S., Environmental Protection Agency.  Position Paper on
Regulation of Atmospheric Sulfates, EPA 450/2-75-007.  Research
Triangle Park, N.C.:   National Environmental Research Center,
1975.

     5Teknekron, Inc., Energy and Environmental Engineering Divi-
sion.  An Integrated Technology Assessment of Electric Utility
Energy Systems, Briefing Materials;  Air Quality Impact Method-
ology and Results—Regional Study and Subregional Problem Areas;
Southwest, Rocky Mountains, Northern Great Plains.  Berkeley,
Calif.:  Teknekron, 1978, p. 7.

                               824
-------
         TABLE  10-2:
GROUND-LEVEL SULFATE
CONCENTRATIONS FOR POWER PLANTS
POWER PLANT
SCENARIO SITE
Kaiparowits/Escalante
Navajo/Farmington
Rifle
Gillette
Colstrip
Beulah
PEAK SULFATE CONCENTRATION
(yg/m3)
CONVERSION RATE
ONE
PERCENT
2.2
0.8
1.5
0.5
0.9
1.1
TWO
PERCENT
4.4
1.6
3.0
1.0
1.8
2.2
FIVE
PERCENT
11
4
7.5
2.5
4.5
5.5
TEN
PERCENT
22
8
15
5
9
11
  yg/nr = micrograms per cubic meter
10.2.2  Oxidants

     Oxidants (including such compounds as ozone, aldehydes, per-
oxides, peroxyacly nitrates, chlorine, and bromine) are a cri-
teria pollutant which either can be emitted from sources or formed
in the atmosphere.  For example, oxidants can be formed when hy-
drocarbons (HC)  combine with oxides of nitrogen  (NOX).   Measured
average levels of oxidants varies widely throughout the study area
as indicated in Figure 10-1.  Peak oxidant values typically occur
during summer, with some variation based on location.1   Daily
maxima occur during late afternoon, and have been documented at
0.08 to 0.09 parts per million  (ppm) in the Northern Great Plains
sites and from 0.03 to 0.04 ppm in the Central Rockies.2  Thus,
measurements found in the Northern Great Plains indicate that
     ^eknekron, Inc., Energy and Environmental Engineering Divi-
sion.  An Integrated Technology Assessment of Electric Utility
Energy Systems, Briefing Materials:  Air Quality Impact Method-
ology and Results—Regional Study and Subregional Problem Areas;
Southwest, Rocky Mountains, Northern Great Plains.  Berkeley,
Calif.:  Teknekron, 1978, pp. 88-89.

     2 Ibid.
                               825
-------
Northern Plains
Dunn Center, ND
Beulah, ND
Porcupine Pump, WY
Douglas, WY
Winsor, CO
Southwest Desert
Coolidge, AZ
Florence, AZ
Playas, NM
Hidalgo, NM
Gold Hill, NM
Florence, AZ
Davis Dam, AZ
Central Rockies
Glenwood Springs, CO
Parachute Creek, CO

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                                   0      .02     .04     .06     .08
                                   Average Concentration  (ppm)
           FIGURE 10-1:   OXIDANT CONCENTRATION BY SITE
Source:  Teknekron, Inc., Energy and Environmental Engineering
Division.  An Integrated Technology Assessment of Electric Utility
Energy Systems, Briefing Materials:  Air Quality Impact Method-
ology and Results—Regional Study and Subregional Problem Areas:
Southwest, Rocky Mountains, Northern Great Plains.  Berkeley,
Calif.:  Teknekron, 1978, pp. 88-89.
                              826
-------
existing conditions could exceed the standard of 0.08 maximum
1-hour concentration.1

     Present knowledge of the conversion processes forming oxi-
dants is insufficient to predict concentrations based on residual
emissions.  However, the relatively low peak HC concentrations
from a power plant and associated mine suggest that oxidant prob-
lems will not be greatly exacerbated by power plant HC emissions
alone.  However, oxidant problems could result from background
HC with the high levels of NOX emitted in power plant plumes.
The extent of this problem has not been predicted.

     Oxidant problems are not expected from Lurgi or Synthane
conversion facilities.  However Synthoil plants, TOSCO II oil
shale facilities, and natural gas production facilities all pro-
duce peak HC levels many times greater than federal standards.
For example, a 100,000 barrels per day  (bbl/day) Synthoil plant
produces peak HC concentrations about 150 times greater than the
federal standard and emits NOX in the plume.  As a result, fa-
cilities of this size may have difficulty obtaining a construc-
tion permit because they could cause oxidant standards to be
violated.  This may create special problems in North Dakota and
other locations where synthetic fuel facilities are planned, and
where current levels of oxidants already exceed or approach fed-
eral primary standards.

10.2.3  Fine Particulates

     Fine particulates are primarily ash and coal particles emit-
ted by  the conversion facilities which are  less than 3 microns
 (three  one-millionth of an inch) in diameter.3  Current informa-
tion  suggests that  particulate emissions controlled by electro-
static  precipatators  (ESP) have a mean diameter of less than 5
microns, while uncontrolled  power plant emissions have a mean
      MO  C.F.R.  50.9  (Standard Promulgated February 18,  1975).
 Environmental  Protection  Agency Administrator 'Douglas  M.  Costle
 has proposed relaxation of  the primary photochemical oxidant am-
 bient standard from 0.08  ppm to 0.1  ppm.   The  effect would be to
 reduce restrictions on  industrial  growth  in some western locations,
 O'Donnel,  Francis  J.   "Washington  Report."  Journal of the Air
 Pollution Control  Association,  Vol.  28 (July 1978), p.  660.

      2See the  various  site-specific  analyses,  Chapters 4 through  9,

      3Some fine particulates are also produced by atmospheric
 chemical  reactions.  These  fine particulates appear at long dis-
 tances from the plants  because of  the length of time required for
 these chemical reactions  to occur.

                               827
-------
diameter of about 10 microns.1  In general, the higher the ef-
ficiency of the ESP, the smaller the mean diameter of the parti-
cles emitted by the plant stacks.  The high efficiency ESP's (99
percent removal by weight)  selectively remove coarse particulates
to the point that an estimated 50 percent  (by weight) of the total
particulate emissions are fine particulates.  This percentage
applies to power plants and Lurgi and Synthane gasification pro-
cesses.  However, since only half of the particulate emissions
from the Synthoil plant are controlled, only about 25 percent of
its emissions will be fine particulates.  Even when high degrees
of particulate controls are used and ambient particulate standards
are met, there may still be cause for concern due to small par-
ticulates.  These fine particulates are not efficiently filtered
out by the body's respiratory system and thus they may have seri-
ous health effects.  The effect of fine particulates on respira-
tory problems is discussed in Section 10.7  (public health impacts).
Fine particulates can also adversely affect visability as dis-
cussed in the following sections.

10.2.4  Long-Range Visibility

     Fine particulates, including aerosols, reduce long-range
visibility.  Particulates suspended in the atmosphere scatter
light, which reduces the contrast between an object and its back-
ground.  As distance increases, the contrast level eventually falls
below that required by the human eye to distinguish the object
from the background.  Estimates of the effect on visibility of
energy facilities hypothesized for this study are based on em-
pirical relationships between visual distance and fine particulate
concentrations.  Visibility in the West generally averages about
60 to 70 miles.2  As shown in Table 10-3, in many western loca-
tions average (long-term) visibility has been decreasing since
the 1950's (except in Pueblo, Colorado).  As facilities in this
study become operational, average visibility will further decrease
by about 12 percent.3  Episodes of air stagnation will cause sub-
stantially greater reductions of visibility on a short-term basis.
     *Fifty percent of the mass is contained in particles less
than this diameter.  Eppright, B.R., et al.  A Program to Model
the Plume Opacity for the Kaiparowits Steam Electric Generating
Station, Final Report, Radian Project No. 200-066 for Southern
California Edison Company.  Austin, Tex.:  Radian Corporation,
1974.

     2The measurement of visibility is not an exact science.  In
the West visibility measurements have been taken at few locations
and have generally not been recorded over the last several decades.

     3An average value from site-specific analyses, Chapters 4-9.

                               828
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                                                       829
-------
     Since the sulfates produced from conversion of SO2 are a
major portion of aerosols from energy facilities such as power
plants, they can affect visibility.  Impacts of sulfates alone
on visibility were evaluated using conversion rates of 1 and 10
percent S02 to sulfates per hour and these were reported in the
six site-specific chapters (Chapters 4-9).   A conversion rate of
1 percent could cause visibility during a worst-case episode to
be reduced from its present value of 60 to 70 miles to 8 .to 60
miles as shown in Table 10-4.  A 10 percent conversion rate
could cause visibility to be reduced to 4 to 50 miles.  The great-
est visibility reduction is associated with power plants and the
associated mines.  These estimates are for worst-case periods,
occurring once to several times per year during air stagnations.

     In order to provide better information on visibility, a view
monitoring network was established in the spring of 1978 at seven
locations in Utah and Arizona.  The objective is to provide base-
line long-range visibility data and document the effects of new
energy facilities.1

10.2.5  Plume Opacity

     Fine particulates in plumes increase opacity in the same way
they limit long-range visibility and subsequently obscure the
view of an object or scenery in the background.2  Reduced light
transmission through energy facility plumes is principally due to
the amount of particulates and nitrogen dioxide (N02).3  The par-
ticulates are typically from sources described earlier, including
fly ash, sulfates, and nitrates from conversion of NOX.4

     In the scenarios included in this study, ESP's will remove
enough particulates to meet emission standards, but stack plumes
would probably exceed the 20 percent opacity new source perfor-
mance standard (NSPS) for power plants, (40 percent opacity is
     ^itchford, Marc L.  "Visibility Investigative Experiment in
the West."  Communique  (Las Vegas, Nev.:  U.S., Environmental Pro-
tection Agency), Vol. 10 (January 2, 1978), pp. 1-2.

     2Opacity is the degree to which emissions reduce transmis-
sion of light and obscure the view of an object in the background,
40 C.F.R. 60.2 (j).

     3Williams, M.D., and E.G. Walther.  Theoretical Analysis of
Air Quality;  Impacts on the Lake Powell Region, Lake Powell
Research Project Bulletin 8.  Los Angeles, Calif.:  University of
California, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 1975,
p. 19.

     *»Ibid.

                              830
-------
     TABLE  10-4 :
WORST-CASE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT
ONE PERCENT  SULFATE CONVERSION  RATE
FACILITY3
Coal-fired power plant
Coal-fired power plant
and mine
Lurgi gasification and
mine
Synthane gasification
and mine
Synthoil liquefaction
and mine
TOSCO II oil shale
Lurgi and Synthane
gasification, coal-fired
power plants, and mines
Coal- fired power plants
Lurgi gasification, and
mines
Lurgi and Synthane gas-
ification, Synthoil
liquefaction, coal-fired
power plant and mines
Lurgi gasification and
mine (2 plants)
Synthane gasification
and mine (2 plants)
SITE
Kaiparowits
Riflec
Gillette
Beulah
Farmington
Gillette
Gillette
Colstrip
Gillette
Rifle
Farmington
Colstrip
Colstrip

Farmington
Beulah
Beulah
BACKGROUND
VISIBILITY
(miles)
70
60
70
60
60
70
70
60
70
60
60
60
60

60
60
60
WORST-CASE
SHORT-TERM
VISIBILITY6
(miles)
8.6
43.6
9.6
4.8
41.6
48.4
59.5
48.9
48.3
44.4
9.3
8.1
8.7

8.2
37.4
29.4
]
PERCENT
VISIBILITY
REDUCTION
87.7
27.3
86.3
92.0
30.7
30.9
15.0
18.5
30.3
26.0
84.5
86.5
85.5

86.3
37.7
51.0
facilities modeled are 3,000 megawatt-electric  coal-fired power plant, 250
million cubic  feet per day  (MMcfd) Lurgi gasification,  250 MMcfd Synthane
gasification,  100,000 barrels per day (bbl/day)  Synthoil liquefaction, 50,000
bbl/day TOSCO  II  oil shale and the associated mines.  The power plants were
modeled with 99 percent removal of particulates  and  80  percent removal of
sulfur dioxide.

 Short-term visibility impacts were investigated using  a "box-type" disper-
sion model. This particular model assumes all emissions occurring during a
specified time interval are uniformly mixed and  confined in a box capped by
a lid or stable layer aloft.  A lid of 500 meters  has been used through the
analyses.  The conversion rate of sulfur dioxide to  sulfates was assumed to
be one percent per hour.

cThe power plant  at Rifle was 1,000 megawatts-electric.
                                   831
-------
permissible for up to 2 minutes during any one hour).1   Although
it is difficult to determine violations of this standard, if it
were close to stacks, additional particulate removal capabilities
would probably be required (up to approximately 99.9 percent of
all plume particulates on some energy facilities).   Analysis of
air quality impacts in the Lake Powell region due to the Navajo
power plant has indicated that under stable atmospheric conditions
and low wind speed, significant plume opacity would occur further
than 25 miles downwind from the plant.2  Although difficult to
predict, similar impacts could result from power plants modeled
in this study.

10.2.6  Cooling Tower Salt Deposition

     Cooling tower "drift" (i.e., emissions from wet-cooling
towers) contains primarily calcium, magnesium, and sodium salts
as well as other chemcials contained in the cooling water.  The
quantity of these salts emitted depends on the amount of cooling
water required for the facility and the content of dissolved
solids in the water source.

     Depending on the site, drift from a Lurgi facility is esti-
mated to range from 400 to 600 pounds of dissolved solids per
day; from a Synthane facility, 700 to 1,000 pounds per day; from
a Synthoil facility, 1,000 to 1,700 pounds per day; and from a
3,000 megawatt-electric (MWe) power plant, 3,000 to 6,400 pounds
per day.3

     The salts are entrained in mist of varying particle size and
are deposited over a large area.  As shown in Table 10-5, deposi-
tion rates are much higher in close proximity to facilities than


     MO C.F.R. 60.42(a) (2) .

     2Williams, M.D., and E.G. Walther.  Theoretical Analysis of
Air Quality:  Impacts on the Lake Powell Region, Lake Powell
Research Project Bulletin 8.  Los Angeles, Calif.:   University of
California, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 1975,
pp. 20-22.

     3The quantity of salt in cooling tower drift depends not only
on the size and operation of the facility but also on the total
dissolved solids  (TDS) content of the cooling water.  The TDS in
the source water for the six sites analyzed is  (in ppm):  Kaiparo-
wits, 7,120; Farmington, 3,330; Rifle, 3,500; Gillette, 3,870;
Colstrip, 3,200; and Beulah, 4,580.  Each cell in a cooling tower
circulates water at a rate of 15,300 gallons per minute and emits
about 1.53 gallons per minute as a mist.  A 3,000 MWe power plant
has 64 cooling tower cells; a Lurgi plant, 11; a Synthane plant,
6; and a Synthoil plant, 16.  Load factors are 70 percent for the
power plant and 90 percent for the synthetic fuel facilities.

                               832
-------
         TABLE 10-5:  COOLING TOWER SALT DEPOSITS FOR
                      SITE-SPECIFIC SCENARIOS3
                      (pounds per acre per year)
SCENARIO
Kaiparowits
Nava jo/Farming ton
Rifle
Gillette
Colstrip
Beulah
DISTANCE FROM COOLING TOWERSb
TO 1 MILE
80
5-23
5-23
7-70
8.5-91
8.5-91
1 TO 8 MILES
7
0.5-4.9
0.4-1.6
0.7-3.4
0.6-5.8
0.6-5.8
8 TO 23 MILES
0.6
0.1-0.9
0.03-0.10
0.02-0.2
0.02-0.2
0.02-0.2
    For specific data on deposition from facilities refer to
   site-specific Chapters 4 through 9.

   ^Ranges are due to different types of facilities.
at a distance.  Some interaction of salt deposition from among
the various plants also occurs, although at rates significantly
below maximum deposition rates that occur near the cooling
towers.  For example, the area midway between the power plant
and Synthane plant in the Gillette scenario will receive an
average of 3.7 pounds of salt per acre per year.

     Effects of cooling tower drift are briefly summarized in the
ecological impact sections of the site-specific Chapters 4 through
9.  Generally, surveys of the effect of cooling tower drift have
not shown alterations in plant or animal populatons outside fa-
cility boundaries, even for facilities using brackish or saline
cooling water.1  Local effects include corrosion of equipment
within facility boundaries.2  Whether salt deposition influences
     ^U.S., Environmental Protection Agency.  Development Docu-
ment for Effluent Limitation Guidelines and New Source Performance
Standards for the Steam Electric Power Generating Point Source
Category.  Washington, D.C.:  Environmental Protection Agency,
1974, p. 642.
     2Ibid.,  p. 641.
                               833
-------
such factors as vegetation productivity,  and ground or surface
water salinity is dependent on natural rates of salt deposition
and removal.  Adverse effects on the environment (such as reduced
vegetation) have only been documented within several hundred yards
of cooling towers.1

10.2.7  Cooling Tower Fogging and Icing

     Fogging and icing can be two of the more noticeable effects
of wet cooling towers.  Fog is produced^when warm humid air from
the towers mixes with cold ambient air.2   When this occurs, the
cooling tower vapor condenses into a fog or into ice if the tem-
perature is below freezing.  The development of fog depends
largely on local conditions; the areas normally susceptable are
those where natural fogs frequently occur.3  The sites in the
eight-state study area typically have about 10 foggy days per
year.  Northern Great Plains locations have a greater tendency
to develop cooling tower fogs than do southwestern sites since
their climates are cooler.  According to criteria developed
through Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)  sponsored studies,
most of the western region has a "low" potential for cooling tower
fogging.1*  Portions of North Dakota, South Dakota, eastern Wyoming,
and southeastern Montana have a "moderate" potential.5

     The fog plume of mechanical draft cooling towers is emitted
close to the ground, and its principal ctdverse effect is impaired
vehicle travel, especially when icing occurs (approximately 100
days in most sites).  Other types of adverse environmental effects
may occur, such as impaired scenic vistas close to facilities.
The potential for modification of regional or local weather pat-
terns also constitutes a possible impact, but this has not been
verified.6
     ^.S., Environmental Protection Agency.  Development Docu-
ment for Effluent Limitation Guidelines and New Source Performance
Standards for the Steam Electric Power Generating Point Source
Category.  Washington, D.C.:  Environmental Protection Agency,
1974, p. 643.

     2 Ibid.

     3 Ibid.

     * Ibid.

     5Ibid., p. 645.

     6 Ibid., p. 648.

                               834
-------
10.2.8  Fugitive Dust

     Fugitive dust emissions from surface coal mining operations
are produced by the removal, loading, and dumping of overburden
(material overlaying the coal)  and by blasting, drilling, loading,
transporting, and dumping the coal.  Heavy machinery (loaders,
scrapers, graders, tractors) traveling on the haul roads also
produce dust.  The entire exposed surface area of the mine can
contribute to wind blown dust.

     The quantity of fugitive dust produced is determined by the
amount of material available for entrainment which is induced
by wind action.  Blasting, loading, and dumping will typically
produce higher concentrations of particulate emissions than dril-
ling, transporting, or exposed storage piles.  As would be ex-
pected, wind velocity strongly affects the quantity of emissions
of fugitive dust.1  Higher concentrations of dust tend to occur
closer to the ground, but levels are highly erratic.2  Particu-
late concentrations often increase with downwind sampling dis-
tances (10 to 50 meters).

     Variations in emissions among mines are attributable to dif-
ferences in soil type, equipment used, climate, and dust suppres-
sion methods employed.  Particulate emissions  (in pounds per ton
[Ibs/ton] of coal mined) were estimated for five coal mines in
the West.  The five sites and estimated emission were: northeast
Colorado (1.5 Ibs/ton); southwest Wyoming (2.9 Ibs/ton); southeast
Montana  (0.6 Ibs/ton); central North Dakota  (1.2 Ibs/ton); and
northern Wyoming (1.0 Ibs/ton coal).3  This range represents 0.03
to 0.09 pounds per million British thermal unit (Btu) of coal
mined.

10.2.9  Startup and Shutdown

     When a coal-fired power generation unit is started up (either
after being shut down for maintenance or in order to meet peak
demands)  air emissions are sometimes completely uncontrolled for
an interim time period.  During this startup period emissions are
exempt from NSPS.  The period of controlled emissions during
startup  (upset conditions) depends on the kind of emission con-
trol equipment used.  For example, if control devices are inte-
grated into the plant design for operation prior to firing the
     ^EDCo-Environmental, Inc.  Survey of Fugitive Dust, EPA
Contract No. 68-01-4489.  Kansas City, Mo.:  PEDCo-Environmental,
n.d.,  p. 54.

     2 Ibid.

     3 Ibid., p. 63.

                               835
-------
boiler, no warm-up period may be needed.  However,  some ESP's and
scrubber units only control emissions when flue gas streams are
appropriately heated and the units are electrically energized.

     For example, one of the Four Corners power plants in north-
western New Mexico has an ESP system that requires  a warm-up
period.  Data on that plant from the New Mexico Health and. Social
Services Department indicates that the shortest startup time
(warm-up period) during the last 5 years was 7 minutes and the
longest was 1 week.l  The mean time of operation with uncon-
trolled emissions was 16.86 hours and most startups lasted longer
than 12 hours.  When data over the last 5 years was averaged,
the plant operated, on the average, 2 hours per day with un-
controlled emissions.2  The main causes of breakdowns during this
5 year period were problems with the boiler, power  distribution
and generation, and the ESP.

10.2.10  Air Impacts of Geothermal Development

     For the case of hot water geothermal development, hydrogen
sulfite (H2S)  air emissions, considered a potential problem,  were
modeled in order to predict air concentrations under worst case
meteorological conditions.  The results of that modeling are given
in Table 10-6 along with the state standards for,H2S.  These data
indicate that no standards will be violated if 99 to 99.9 percent
emission control is achieved.   Violations could occur with only
90 percent control.  The Stretford process has been used in in-
dustrial applications for H2S removal achieving 99.99 percent
removal.  Thus, the technology required for H2S control is thought
to be available and feasible for geothermal applications.

10.3  TRACE ELEMENTS3

     Trace elements are those elements present in the earth's
crust at concentrations of 0.1 percent (1,000 ppm)  or less.  The


     xNew Mexico, Health and Social Services Department.   "Upset
Analysis of the Four Corners Power Plant."  March 7, 1978.

     2Ibid.

     3Sources of information for this discussion are Kash, Don E.,
et al.  The Impact of Accelerated Coal Utilization, Contract No.
OTA-C-182^Norman,Okla.:University of Oklahoma, Science and
Public Policy Program, 1977; and Radian Corporation.  The Assess-
ment of Residuals Disposal for Steam Electric Power Generation
and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United States, EPA
Contract No. 68-01-1916.  Austin, Tex.:  Radian Corporation,
1978, pp. 92-110.  The latter source also contains information on
the organic compounds that are formed during conversion and can
be emitted.

                               836
-------
  TABLE 10-6:   WORST-CASE HYDROGEN SULFIDE IMPACTS FROM A
               100  MEGAWATT GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANT
               (micrograms per cubic meter)

Control (H2S Removal)
90 %
99 %
99.9%
Standards'1
New Mexico
Wyoming
Montana
North Dakota
CONCENTRATION AND STANDARDS
(ONE-HALF HOUR AVERAGING TIME)
FLASHED STEAM
POWER GENERATION11
133
13.3
NC
BINARY PROCESS
POWER GENERATION0
NC
46.2 - 59.3
4.6 - 5.9
46 - 152
40 - 70
42 - 70
45 - 75
H2S = hydrogen sulfide
NC = not considered

aAssuming worst case meteorology

 Stack parameters for flashed steam include 60 feet stack
height, 85°F temperature, 30 feet per second flow velocity
and a volumetric flow rate of 2.8 x io3 cubic feet per minute.
£
 Stack parameters for binary fluid process include 130 feet
stack height, 125°F temperature, 30 feet per second flow
velocity, and a volumetric flow rate ranging from 3.62 x 104
cubic feet per minute to 3.62 x 103 cubic feet per minute.

dFrom White, Irvin L.,  et al.  Energy From the West:  Energy
Resource Development Systems Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency,Forthcoming, Chapter 2.  In
New Mexico, the lower standard applies statewide except in the
Pecos Permian Basin industrial area where the high standard
applies.  In Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota, the lower
standard may not be violated more than two times in five consecu-
tive days and the higher standard may not be violated more
than two times a year.
                             837
-------
quantity and kinds of trace elements in coal vary with location
(Table 10-7).   Each coal has a unique composition, and methods
used to predict exactly what happens to the trace elements in
coal during energy conversion processes have not been fully devel-
oped.  As a result, data on trace element emissions and discharges
from coal conversion technologies are quite preliminary.  Esti-
mated amounts of trace elements are also present in the source
water used for plant cooling (Table 10-3).   The fate of these
elements is also difficult to predict.  However, they can be
emitted to the atmopshere in a gaseous form or as a mist in the
cooling tower drift or they may be discharged in some liquid or
solid form in the wastewater effluents from the conversion tech-
nology.

     The total amount of trace elements introduced into the en-
vironment become quite large when the amount of coal processed is
considered.  For example, for a 3,000 MWe coal fired electric
power plant at Gillette, the quantity of a single trace element
(arsenic) processed would range from 12.8 to 51.2 tons per year
(tpy) (assuming a range of 1-4 ppm concentration of arsenic in
Gillette coal as shown in Table 10-7).  As a point of comparison
with the amounts of this element occurring naturally in surface
waters, the arsenic in power plant cooling water supply for
Gillette would be 0.04 to 0.02 tpy depending on local concentra-
tions.  At Colstrip, 80 tpy of lead will be contained within the
coal for two 3,000 MWe power plants; about 500 to 2,000 times as
much as present in the cooling water.  Ef a billion tons of coal
were processed, a single trace element with a concentration of
10 ppm would account for 10,000 tons of residual waste in a single
year.

     These trace elements may be emitted into the atmopshere via
the stack, into holding ponds via wastewater discharge, or into
groundwater via leaching of solid wastes.   The amount of trace
elements produced as residuals from coal conversion depends pri-
marily on the amount of trace elements in the raw coal, but the
emission or effluent streams in which they are found and the
chemical forms that occur depends on the temperature at which each
trace elements volatizes and on the operation of the coal conver-
sion technology.

     Trace elements will appear in the bottom ash, fly ash, flue
gas desulfurization (FGD) sludge, and other residual streams
(e.g., wastewater from water treatment and cooling tower blowdown),
In the case of synthetic fuels facilities,  some trace elements
may also be present in the product gas and oil.  Combustion of
coal is thought to cause most trace elements to occur in the fly
ash and scrubber sludge and a reduced concentration of volatile
trace elements in the bottom ash.  Only volatile elements are
thought to be present in the synthetic gas and oil.  Under the
high temperature processing conditions for coal in synthetic fuel


                               838
-------
            TABLE 10-7:  TRACE ELEMENTS IN SELECTED
                         WESTERN COALS3
ELEMENT
Antimony
Arsenic
Beryllium
Cadmium
Chromium
Flourine
Lead
Manganese
Mercury
Nickel
Selenium
Uranium
Vanadium
Zinc
GILLETTE
(ppm)
.1 - .7
1-4
.2 - .7
.1 - .2
NA
30 - 200
1.5 - 40
NA
.1 - .28
NA
.2 - 3.2
.3 - 3.2
NA
2.1 - 25
NAVAJO/FARMINGTON
(ppm)
.3 - 1.2
.1-3
NA
.2 - .4
NA
200 - 780
1.4 - 4.0
NA
.2 - .3
3-30
.1 - .2
NA
NA
1.1 - 27
KAIPAROWITS/ESCALANTE
(ppm)
0.6 - .2
.02 - 1.6
.3 - .7
.06 - 1.6
1.3 - 5.9
8-96
NA
4-8
.03 - .05
4-6
0-8
.3-1
7-9
NA
ppm = parts per million by weight
NA = not available
 Sinor, J.E.  Evaluation of Background Data Relating to New
Source Performance Standards for Lurgi Gasification, Final Report,
EPA 600/7-77-057, EPA Contract No. 68-02-2152, Task 11.  Denver,
Colo.:  Cameron Engineers, Inc., 1977 (source for Navajo/
Farmington, New Mexico data).  U.S., Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Land Management.  Final Environmental Impact State-
ment;  Proposed Kaiparowits Project, 6 vols.  Salt Lake City,
Utah:  Bureau of Land Management, 1976 (source for Kaiparowits/
Escalante data).
                              839
-------
          TABLE 10-8:   CONCENTRATIONS  OF TRACE ELEMENTS IN
                         SELECTED SOURCE WATER3
                         (parts  per million by weight)
ELEMENT
Arsenic
Barium
Beryllium
Cadmium
Chromium
Cobalt
Copper
Lead
Manganese
Mercury
Molybdenum
Nickel
Radon
Selenium
Strontium
Uranium
Vanadium
Zinc
BEULAH,
LAKE
SAKAKAWEA
0-0.004
0-0.200
0
0-0.001
0-<0.010
0-0.001
0-0.002
0-0.002
0-0.002
0-< 0.0005
0.002-0.003
0.003-0.004
NA
0-0.001
0.470-0.530
NA
NA
0.005-0.020
COLSTRIP,
YELLOWSTONE
RIVER
0.004-0.007
NA
0-0.010
0-<0.010
0
NA
0.001-0.002
0.001-0.004
0-0.010
0-0.0002
0.001-0.002
0.002-0.005
NA
0.001-0.002
NA
NA
0-00016
0-0.010
GILLETTE,
YELLOWSTONE
RIVER
0.001-0.005
NA
0-<0.010
0
0-0.010
NA
0.002
0.001-0.002
0-0.005
0-0.0002
0.001-0.003
0.002-0.003
NA
0.001-0.002
NA
NA
0.001-0.0012
0
GILLETTE,
NORTH PLATTE
RIVER
0.002-0.005
0.056-0.062
0-<0.001
<0. 002-0. 003
<0.003
<0. 002-0. 003
0.002-0.004
<0. 003-0. 006
0.018-0.022
NA
0.003
< 0.002-0. 003
0.0001
0.005-0.007
0.500-0.600
0.010
<0. 002-0. 003
0-0.010
NA = not  available

aRadian Corporation.   The Assessment of Residuals Disposal for Steam
Electric  Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United
States.   Austin, Tex.:  Radian Corporation, 1978, p.  79.
                                    840
-------
production volatile trace elements that may occur in the product
gas or oil include mercury, antimony, fluoride, selenium, vana-
dium, lead, molybedenum, nickel, boron, zinc, cadmium, chromium,
copper, cobalt, uranium, arsenic, and silver.  These are expected
to occur in greatest concentration in the FGD sludge and occur in
very low concentrations in the bottom ash.  Nonvolatile elements
(e.g., beryllium, barium, iron, and manganese) will be present
in the bottom ash and fly ash in similar proportions.

     Gaseous emissions of trace elements are difficult to control.
Current air pollution control technologies are largely ineffective
in controlling gaseous emissions of rare elements.  However, when
trace elements are part of liquid or solid waste streams, they
can be more easily controlled by discharging them to holding
ponds or landfills.  But the potential for contamination of sur-
face or groundwater still exists from seepage, leaks, or failures
of the liquid waste holding ponds or solid waste landfill.

     Very little is known about the seriousness of emissions to
the atmosphere of trace elements from coal, although the problem
is now receiving increased research attention.  Similarly, the
effects of trace elements on human health are not well understood;
however, a summary of known or anticipated effects is presented
in Section 10.7  (public health impacts).

10.4  SOLID WASTE TREATMENT AND DISPOSAL

     By 1980, nationwide wastes from coal-fired power plants are
estimated to be 70 million tpy from S02 (FGD) scrubbers and 60
million tpy of fly ash from the ESP and bottom ash collection
systems.1  A single 1,000 MWe power plant is estimated to produce
44 million tons of waste in a 30-year period.2  The quantities
and composition of solid wastes produced from each type of energy
conversion facility at each site are given in the water sections
of Chapters 4 through 9.  This section deals with the overall
problem of treatment and disposal of these wastes.

10.4.1  Application of Holding Ponds

     Holding ponds are large, man-made basins widely used for
retaining liquid effluents from coal conversion facilities in the
West while allowing the water to be evaporated.  However, wastes
can leave the holding pond and become environmental problems
through evaporation,  wind erosion, leaching, accidental berm


     !Gavande, S.A.,  W.F. Holland, and C.S. Collins.  Survey of
Technological and Environmental Aspects of Wet-Residue Disposal
in Evaporative Holding Ponds, Final Report.  Austin, Tex.:  Radian
Corporation, 1978.

     2Ibid.

                              841
-------
failures, and pond overflow.1  Some waste pollutants from hold-
ing ponds are released to the air along with evaporated water.
These include H2S, methane, ammonia, and other nitrogen gases
which are contained in the sludge.  Thus, contamination of areas
immediately adjacent to the holding pond can occur by evapora-
tion and wind-whipped spray if the wastes are in liquid form,
or by wind erosion of dried wastes in the holding pond.  Seepage
from the holding pond is likely to leach out nitrates, chlorides,
sulfates, boron, and cyanide through the soil to adjacent ground-
water systems.2  If the holding pond leaks, the more soluble
elements in the effluent may leach into the underground water
system.  Heavy rains or a period of decreased evaporation rate
coupled with a heavy rate of effluent inflow into the holding
pond can cause pond overflow and subsequent pollution of surface
or groundwaters.  Good pond design and use of natural or synthe-
tic liners can be used to reduce the chance of overflow and
leaching.  Groundwater monitoring can be used to assess the ex-
tent of leaching.

     Liquid or solid residuals usually consist of fly ash from
the ESP, bottom ash, FGD sludge, and demineralizer and cooling
tower blowdown liquids.  Although many disposal configurations are
possible, some facility configurations include three types of
disposal ponds and at least one landfill.3  Fly ash is dry and is
usually deposited directly in a landfill.  Bottom ash is usually
sluiced to an ash pond, allowed to settle, and the water sent to
an evaporation pond along with water from the demineralizer.  FGD
sludge is usually routed along with cooling tower wastewater to
a sludge pond.  Solids from the ash and sludge ponds are periodi-
cally removed by dredging or other dewatering techniques and
deposited in a landfill.  Fly ash, bottom ash, and FGD sludge
may be mixed together before land filling to enhance compaction
and stabilization.  Disposal of these solid wastes can require a
large amount of land for interim storage ponds and for final dis-
posal in landfills.

A.  Pond Design

     Evaporative holding ponds located over thick, impermeable
clay deposits reduce the chance of groundwater contamination in


     *Gavande, S.A., W.F. Holland, and C.S. Collins.  Survey of
Technological and Environmental Aspects of Wet-Residue Disposal
in Evaporative Holding Ponds, Final Report.  Austin, Tex.:  Radian
Corporation, 1978.

     2Ibid.

     3Radian Corporation.  The Assessment of Residuals Disposal
for Steam Electric Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in
the Western United States.  Austin, Tex.:  Radian Corporation,
1978.
                               842
-------
the event of accidental overflow or seepage.  If a suitable clay
is located with 30 miles of the power plant, it may be economi-
cally and technically feasible to transport the clay to the pond
site.  The pond consists of an excavated area (usually rectangular
to accommodate large earth-moving equipment) with the excavated
material used to construct an embankment (berm)  on the sides.
Currently, most holding ponds are unlined since unlined ponds are
easier and more economical to construct.  However, unlined ponds
pose the greatest potential for groundwater contamination.  This
potential danger has led to the recent development of various
pond lining methods to prevent seepage.  Alternative pond linings
include clay, synthetic membranes, and cement or asphaltic coat-
ings of the pond bottom and sides.

     The environmental impact of evaporative holding ponds de-
pends primarily on the pond's capacity to contain the accumula-
tion of wastes from an energy facility and on the ability of
operators to retire the site safely and to a productive use.
Very little data are available regarding the performance of hold-
ing ponds after construction.  Ultimately,  the capacity for ground
and surface water contamination depends on the nature of the
local geologic, climatic and hydrologic conditions, and the in-
tegrity of the holding pond system, including human management
capability.

B.  Disposal of Ponded Wastes

     Fly ash, bottom ash, and FGD sludge are eventually deposited
in landfills or holding ponds and stabilized by chemical addition
or evaporation to dryness.  Some portions of all three solid
waste streams may be mixed together prior to this final deposition.
Because very few regulations cover FGD sludge, disposal procedures
are uncertain.  In addition, the design of a holding pond must
take into account local weather extremes and hydrogeologic condi-
tions which vary greatly from north to south in the West.  Op-
timum design and operation of holding ponds has not been deter-
mined for most areas in the eight-state study area.

     There is very limited published information on the use of
liners for holding ponds.  In one system, a polyvinyl chloride
(synthetic) liner covered with one foot of soil was first used
but was later found inadequate because heavy equipment could not
enter the pond for cleaning.  Soil cement was later used but was
found to deteriorate severely.  Finally, ashpaltic concrete was
used to line five of six ponds at the site and was found satis-
factory. 1


     !Gavande, S.A., W.F. Holland, and C.S. Collins.  Survey of
Technological and Environmental Aspects of Wet-Residue Disposal
in Evaporative Holding Ponds, Final Report.  Austin, Tex.:  Radian
Corporation, 1978, pp. 68-69.

                               843
-------
     Studies of the physical properties of FGD system wastes
indicate that the material cannot usually be placed in a landfill
without the aid of a chemical stabilization agent.  Usually 35 to
55 percent of the water may be removed from the sludge in the
holding pond prior to disposal.  The sludge can be mixed with fly
ash and lime or with cement fixatives and transported to a land-
fill.  Although chemical fixation of power plant wastes is expen-
sive, it would substantially reduce the risks of solid wastes
leaching into ground or surface water after disposal.1  After
deposition in a landfill, wastes could be compacted and covered
with several feet of compacted soil.  The site may then be revege-
tated to prevent erosion of the soil cover.  In arid and semiarid
regions of the West, supplementary irrigation will probably be
needed if a soil stabilization plant cover is to be established
over disposed wastes.

     Although the potential toxicity of power plant waste leach-
ates has not been established at this time, there -are numerous
potentially toxic elements produced in the coal conversion pro-
cess discussed in the following sections.  For example, arsenic,
selenium,  boron, chloride, mercury, and sulfates can produce det-
rimental impacts on the environment, and, if not properly dis-
posed of,  may eventually pose a major threat to human health
(see Section 10.7).

10.4.2  Effects of Ponds or Landfills on Groundwater

     The impact of solid waste disposal on groundwater quality
depends on the toxicity of chemicals present.  For coal-fired
power plants the major sources of the chemicals are soluble spe-
cies in the ash and in the scrubber liquor blowdown.

     The scrubber liquor is the most important factor affecting
the leachate quality during initial leaching of the disposed
solids into the soil.2  After that, the solubility of the ash
and scrubber solids is most important.

     Table 10-9 illustrates average chemical composition of FGD
sludge liquors from four power plants.  Several chemical species
have average (mean)  concentrations above; the EPA drinking water
standards.  These elements include arsenic, boron, total chromium,
iron, lead, manganese, mercury, selenium, chloride, fluoride, and
sulfates.   Particular consideration should be given to mercury


     1 Jones, Julian W.  "Disposal of Flue-Gas Cleaning Wastes."
Chemical Engineering, Vol. 84  (February 14, 1977), pp. 79-85.

     2Rossoff,  J. , et al.  Disposal of By-Products from Non-
Regenerable Flue Gas Desulfurization Systems,Second Progress
Report, EPA-600/7-77-052.Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental
Protection Agency, 1977.

                               844
-------
TABLE  10-9:
RANGE  OF  CONCENTRATION  OF  SELECTED
CONSTITUENTS  IN  SCRUBBER  LIQUORS
CONSTITUENTS
Arsenic
Beryllium
Boron
Cadmium
Calcium
Chromium (total)
Cobalt
Copper
Iron
Lead
Magnesium
Manganese
Mercury
Molybdenum
Nickel
Potassium
Selenium
Silver
Sodium
Tin
Vanadium
Zinc
Chloride
Fluoride
Sulfite
Sulfate
Phosphate
Chemical Oxygen Demand
Total Dissolved Solids
Total Alkalinity
(as CaC03)
Acidity /Alkalinity
RANGE OF CONSTITUENT
CONCENTRATIONS a
(micrograms per liter)
<0. 004-0. 3
<0.002-.14
8.0-46
0.004-.11
520-3,000
.01-. 5
.10-. 7
<0.002-.2
.02-8.1
.01-. 4
3-2,750
.09-2.5
.003-. 07
.91-6.3
.05-1.5
5.9-32
<0. 001-2. 2
0.005-.6
14-2,400
3.1-3.5
<0.001-.67
.01-. 35
420-4,800
.07-10
.8-3,500
720-10,000
.03-. 41
60-390
3,200-150,000
41-150
3.04-10.7
EPA DRINKING WATER
STANDARDS
DECEMBER 1976
0.05b
1.0b
0.01b
0.05b
1.0
0.3b
0.05b
0.05b,
0.002b
0.01b
0.05b
no limit0
5.0
250. Ob
0.7-1.2b'd
250.0b'd
no limitc
no limitc
no limit0
5-9b
  EPA = Environmental Protection Agency
                       CaCO,
                                                  calcium  carbonate
  Source:   Rossoff, J., et al.   Disposal of By-Products from Non-
  Regenerable Flue Gas Desulfurization Systems, Second Progress Report,
  EPA-600/7-77-052.  Washington,  D.C. :  U.S., Environmental Protection
  Agency,  1977.

  aSamples obtained from:  EPA/Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA),
  Shawnee, Steam Plant - venturi and  spray tower; EPA/TVA Shawnee
  Steam Plant - turbulent contact absorber; Arizona Public Service
  Cholla Station - flooded disk scrubber and absorption tower;  and
  Duquesne Light Phillips Station - single - and dual-stage venturi.

   Scrubber liquor effluent from one  or more power plants exceeds
  water criteria.

  c"No limit" indicates that insufficient data existed for prescrib-
  ing limits.

   U.S., Department of Health,  Education and Welfare,  Public Health
  Service,  USPHS Drinking Water Standards 1962, USPHS Publication
  No. 956.  Washington, D.C.:Public Health Service,  1962.
                                 845
-------
because of its high toxicity in very low concentrations.  The
chloride and sulfate levels are also high.

     The leachate produced from holding ponds has been charac-
terized by several laboratory pond simulation studies and from
actual operating ponds.1  Results from leaching studies of three
sludges are summarized in Table 10-10.  The values indicate
averages from the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)  Shawnee lime-
stone sludge, Arizona Public Service Cholla limestone sludge, and
the Southern California Edison, Mohave limestone sludge.  The
concentration of major components (sulfate, chloride) decreased
rapidly during the first few displacements  of water through the
sludge.  Some trace elements are more difficult to flush from
the system.  However, some trace elements will continue to be
flushed from fine particulate matter and subsequently enter soils
in small quantities.

     In 1974, EPA began a field evaluation  of the disposal of un-
treated and treated flue gas cleaning wastes.2  The disposal
evaluation site was located near the Shawnee coal-fired power
plant  (Paducah, Kentucky).  In the clay lined ponds with low
permeability, the groundwaters show no evidence of altered qual-
ity.3  However, leachate studies showed that the concentrations
of major dissolved solids, i.e., chlorides, sulfates, and total
dissolved solids (TDS), progressively increase in the leachate
during the first year.  The data also indicate that the concen-
trations may level off at approximately those measured between
the second and fifth year.  The concentrations of heavy metals
in the leachate and the liquor show trends  similar to those of
the major species.  However, it is not possible to project exact
concentrations because of the relatively small amounts present
and the complex chemistry involved.

    Other studies at fly ash disposal sites indicate that trace
metals are released from the pond to the groundwater at generally
    ^ossoff, J., et al.   Disposal of By-Products from Non-
Regenerable Flue Gas Desulfurization Systems, Second Progress
Report, EPA-600/7-77-052.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental
Protection Agency, 1977;  and Holland, W.F., et al.  Environmental
Effects of Trace Elements from Ponded Ash and Scrubber Sludge.
Austin, Tex.:  Radian Corporation, 1975.


    2Leo, P.P., and J. Rossoff.  Control of Waste and Water Pol-
lution from Power Plant Flue Gas Cleaning Systems, First Annual
R&D Report, EPA 600/7-76-018.  Research Triangle Park, N.C.:
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1976.

    3Ibid.

                               846
-------
         TABLE 10-10:   SELECTED COMPOSITION OF SLUDGE
                          LIQUORS AND  LEACHATES
CONSTITUENT
Arsenic
Cadmium
Chromium
Copper
Lead
Mercury
Selenium
Zinc
Chloride
Floride
Sulfate
Acidity /Alkalinity
Total Dissolved
Solids
SLUDGE LIQUOR
COMPOSITION3
(mg/£)
<0. 004-0. 14
0.003-0.05
0.09-0.25
0.01-0.56
0.01-0.25
<. 005-0. 13
0.12-2.5
0.07-0.18
1,430-2,225
0.7-30
4,400-25,000
4.3-8.3
9,100-92,500

LEACHATES COMPOSITION3 (mg/£)
FIRST LEACHINGb
<0. 004-0. 06
0.001-0.05
0.. 019-0. 05
0.007-0.11
0.016-1.7
0.00008-0.05
0.03-0.2
0.06-2.7
900-7,700
2.4-10.8
3,500-9,000
4.6-8.5
6,500-24,300

FIFTIETH LEACHING0
<0.004
<.001-0.003
0.002-0.015
0.01-0.03
<0. 001-0. 08
<. 00005-0. 004
0.004-0.01
0.01-0.045
65-130
<0. 2-6.1
1,000-1,300
4.5-7.45
1,600-2,400

mg/£ = micrograms  per  liter
< = less than
aBased on data from Southern California Edison Mohave limestone sludge,
Arizona Public Service  Cholla limestone sludge and Tennessee Valley
Authority Shawnee limestone sludge  (aerobic and anaerobic conditions).

^Leachate produced from first displacement of pore space by infiltrating
water.

cThe Leachate produced  after the 50th displacement of the pore space by
infiltrating water.
                                   847
-------
low levels.1  Increased concentrations of several times the nor-
mal levels occur when ponds are first filled and again when main-
tenance results in a large fly ash loading.   Once trace metals
are released, their behavior in groundwater depends upon the site-
specific chemical and hydrologic characteristics.  Metals were
found to accumulate in the soils at the point where pond seepage
water and natural groundwater meet, probably due to chemical pre-
cipitation and absorption onto soils.  Arsenic in particular has
displayed high increases over background levels.  Potential tox-
icity of leachates has not been extensively established at this
time.  Information on general leachate quality, however, indicates
a potential pollution problem and a need for careful site selec-
tion, monitoring, installation of liners, and other management
practices.

10.5  NOISE IMPACTS

10.5.1  Introduction

    Noise can be defined as any sound that may produce an unde-
sired physiological or psychological effect in an individual
or animal or that may interfere with the behavior of an indi-
vidual or group.2  Noise can temporarily or permanently damage
hearing, interfere with speech communications and the perception
of auditory signals, disturb sleep, and interfere with the per-
formance of complicated tasks.  More intangibly, it can be a
source of annoyance and adversely affect mood.3  Within recent
years, recognition and quantification of these effects have re-
sulted in the identification of noise as an environmental pol-
lutant that raises both social and health concerns.1*

     The following analysis of noise impacts focuses on cases
representative of conditions encountered in the mining, con-
struction, and operation activities of energy development.  Noise
levels for three activities are estimated:  surface strip mining,
constructing a 3,000 MWe power plant, and operating a 3,000 MWe
power plant.  These cases were analyzed to determine whether the


    ^heis, J.L., et al.  Field Investigations of Trace Metals
in Ground Water from Fly Ash Disposal, Draft.  South Bend, Ind.:
University of Notre Dame, Department of Civil Engineering, 1977.

    2Kerbec, Matthew J.  "Noise and Hearing," Preprint from
1972 edition of Your Government and the Environment.  Arlington,
Va.:  Output Systems Corporation, 1971.

    3Miller, James D.  Effects of Noise on People.  St. Louis,
Mo.:  Central Institute for the Deaf, 1971.

    "*White, Frederick.  Our Acoustic Environment.  New York,
N.Y.:  Wiley, 1975.

                              848
-------
noise they produce would be a source of concern for nearby popula-
tions.  Evaluations were based on the equivalent sound level av-
eraged over 24 hours and historical data on the response of humans
to these average levels.  Transportation noise impacts are dis-
cussed in Chapter 11.6.

10.5.2  Criteria for Noise Impacts

     In evaluations  of the impact of environmental noise,  EPA
criteria were used as the basis for estimating effects from con-
struction,  operation, and mining.1   The noise level limits con-
sidered by  EPA to be essential to protect public welfare and safety
are presented in Table 10-11.   Additional criteria may be devel-
oped based on the efforts required to communicate in the presence
of ambient  sound levels.  These efforts are shown in Table 10-12
and indicate, for example, that for an ambient sound level of 78
decibels (dB)  a very loud voice must be used to communicate with
someone only 1 foot away.  These criteria are consistent with the
effect of noise on telephone communication, where a background
noise level above 75 decibels A-weighted (dBA) makes telephone
conversation difficult  (Table 10-13).

     The change in sound level is an important factor in assessing
the impact from added noise sources.  It is just possible to de-
tect a change in noise level of 2-3 dBA, while a 5 dBA change is
readily apparent.  An increase in noise level of 10 dBA is equiva-
lent to a doubling of the loudness of the sound.

     The effects of noise on wildlife and domestic animals are
less well understood.  Studies of animals subjected to varying
noise exposures in laboratories have demonstrated physiological
and behavioral changes, and these reactions are assumed applicable
to wildlife.  However, no scientific evidence currently correlates
the two.  Large animals adapt quite readily to high sound levels.
Conversely, loud noise disrupts brooding in poultry and conse-
quently can decrease egg production.2

     The major effect of noise on wildlife is related to the use
of auditory signals.  Acoustic signals are important for survival
in some wildlife species.  Probably the most important effect is re-
lated to the prey-predator situation.  An animal that relies on its
ears to locate prey and an animal that relies on its ears to detect


     !EPA recommends use of a measure which accounts for greater
impact than noise makes at night compared to the day, or the "day-
night average sound level."  This measure is called decibels A-
weighted, or dBA.

     2Memphis State University.  Effects of Noise on Wildlife and
Other Animals.  Springfield, Va.:  National Technical Information
Service, 1971.

                               849
-------
           TABLE 10-11:
    SOUND  LEVELS  REQUIRED  TO  PROTECT
    PUBLIC HEALTH AND WELFARE3
       EFFECT
    LEVEL1
          AREA
 Hearing loss

 Outdoor activity
   interference and
   annoyance
           70 dB
           55 dB
                     Leq(24)
           55 dB
 Indoor activity
   interference and
   annoyance
Jdn
                     Leq(24)
           54 dB
           45 dB
All areas

Outdoors in residential
  areas and farms and
  other outdoor areas
  where people spend
  widely varying
  amounts of time and
  other places in which
  quiet is a basis for
  use.
Outdoor areas where
  people spend limited
  amounts of time, such
  as school yards, play-
  grounds, etc.

Indoor residential
  areas.

Other indoor areas with
  human activities such
  as schools, etc.
dB = decibel(s)
 Jeq
    =  the sound level averaged over a 24-hour period.
Ldn = the sound level Leq weighted with a 10 dB larger impact
      for nighttime sounds.

aU.S.,  Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Noise
Abatement and Control.   Information on Levels of Environmental
Noise Requisite to Protect Public Health and Welfare with an
Adequate Margin of Safety.  Arlington, Va.:   Environmental
Protection Agency, 1974, p. 3.

bTable to be read as follows:  To protect from a hearing loss,
the sound level Leq(24) must be less than 70 dB in all areas,
both indoor and outdoor.

GHearing loss level represents annual averages of daily sound
level over a period of 40 years that produces impairment to
hearing.
                               850
-------
    TABLE 10-12:
  SOUND LEVELS PERMITTING
  SPEECH COMMUNICATION


T.T^TFNFR
DISTANCE
(feet)
1
2
3
4
5
6
12
AMBIENT SOUND LEVEL FOR
SPEECH COMMUNICATION (dBA)

LOW
VOICE
60
54
50
48
46
44
38
NORMAL
VOICE
66
60
56
54
52
50
44
RAISED
VOICE
72
66
62
60
58
56
50
VERY LOUD
VOICE
78
72
68
66
64
62
56
dBA = decibels A-weighted

Source:  Tracer, Inc.  Guidelines on Noise.
Washington, D.C.:  American Petroleum Insti-
tute, 1973.
  TABLE 10-13:
QUALITY OF TELEPHONE USAGE
IN THE PRESENCE OF STEADY-
STATE MASKING NOISE
       NOISE LEVEL
          (dBA)a
     TELEPHONE USAGE
          30-50
          50-65
          65-75
        Above 75
    Satisfactory
    Slightly Difficult
    Difficult
    Unsatisfactory
      dBA = decibels A-weighted

      Source:  Tracer, Inc.  Guidelines
      on Noise.  Washington, D.C.:
      American Petroleum Institute, 1973
                      851
-------
predators are both impaired by intruding noise.1  The reception
of auditory mating signals could also be limited and therefore
affect reproduction.  Distress or warning signals from mother
animals to infants  (or vice versa)  or within groups of social
animals "could be masked and possibly lead to increased mortality.
There are clues that short-term high noise levels may startle
wild game birds and stop the brooding cycle for an entire season.2

     In the following analysis, noise levels were predicted from
a model incorporating information on ambient air and topographic
conditions and the properties of energy dispersion (sound energy)
in air under these conditions.  The results of this model predict
energy levels at selected distances from single or multiple sources,
The results are presented in terms of day-night equivalent sound
levels (Ldn)•

10.5.3  Surface Strip Mining

     The principal noise sources during typical strip-mining op-
erations will be bulldozers, the dragline, rock drills, -blasting,
and coal haulers.3  A typical mining operation is shown in Figure
10-2, emphasizing the topographic barriers to noise from surface
mining.

     Sound levels for each of the above sources are given in
Table 10-14.   The 50-foot high piles of overburden will effec-
tively block most sound radiation.   For the typical mining geome-
try shown in Figure 10-2, the spoil piles will weaken radiated
levels by about 15 dBA in the northern and southern quadrants.
Predicted radiation noise levels, in the form of L^ contours,
are shown in Figure 10-3 for the typical surface mining operation.

     Haulers will be the principal noise source in mining.  How-
ever, their L<3n will be less than 55 dBA in all directions for
distances greater than 2,000 feet and will have less impact than
the noise levels predicted for power plant construction and opera-
tion.

10.5.4  Plant Construction

     Facility construction noise will be caused primarily by heavy
construction equipment.  Plant construction noise is usually


     1 Memphis State University.  Effects of Noise on Wildlife and
Other Animals.  Springfield, Va.:  National Technical Information
Service,  1971.

     2 Ibid.

     3The noise impact of blasting depends on size and depth of
charge, acoustic properties of soil, and presence of sound atten-
uating barriers, thus is highly variable.

                               852
-------
              TABLE 10-14:
REPRESENTATIVE SOUND LEVEL
FOR MINING NOISE SOURCES

EQUIPMENT
Dragline
Bulldozer
Rock Drill
Loader
Coal Haulers
SOUND LEVEL PER
(dBA/ vehicle)
68
82
72
72
7
UNIT






              dBA = decibels A-weighted

              Source:  Battelle Memorial Institute,
              Columbus Laboratories.   Detailed Envi-
              ronmental Analysis Concerning a Pro-
              posed Coal Gasification Plant for Trans-
              western Coal Gasification Co.,  Pacific
              Coal Gasification Co.,  and Western Gas-
              ification Co., and the Expansion of a
              Strip Mine Operation Near Burnham, N.M.
              Owned and Operated by Utah Interna-
              tional, Inc.  Columbus, Ohio:  Battelle
              Columbus Laboratories,  1973.
concentrated in four areas:  reservoir, ash disposal area, evapo-
rative ponds, and cooling tower and power block construction.
The equipment assumed to be operating in each area was:
     Reservoir:
     Ash disposal area:
     Evaporative ponds:
1 crane, 3 bulldozers, 6 dump
trucks;

1 crane, 2 bulldozers, 4 dump
trucks;

1 grader, 2 bulldozers; and
\
2 cranes, 6 air compressors,
     Cooling tower and
     power block construe-  4 rock drills, 10 pneumatic
     tion:
wrenches, 6 welding generators,
2 graders, 6 dump trucks.
The sound levels for each of these pieces of equipment are listed
in Table 10-15.

     Total sound level of the equipment in each of the four areas
will be:  reservoir, 92.3 dBA; ash disposal, 91.3 dBA; evaporative
ponds, 88.5 dBA; and power block and cooling tower, 109.9 dBA.

                               853
-------
                                               Coal Haulers
             £^S 50   High  Barrier
             %Mte&]X^*k3^i^^
8S2&23&3H3
          Dragline
                                Bulldozer
              50'  High Barrier (Spozls)  m

                                           100
FIGURE 10-2:  TYPICAL SURFACE COAL MINE CONFIGURATION
                           854
-------
Q)

CD
C
•H


QJ

U
-P
(0
•H

D
     o
     o
     o
     CM
     o
     o
     o
     oo
     o
     o
     o
o  -
o
o
o
-3"  -
     o
     o
     o
     oo .
     I
     o
     o
     o
     cxl
                                            LDN isopleth
                                             T    ¥
       -12000
           -8000
-4000
-0
4000     8000    12000
                          Distance in Feet
     FIGURE 10-3:
                RADIATED NOISE FOR TYPICAL COAL

                MINING OPERATION
                            855
-------
            TABLE 10-15:
SOUND LEVELS FOR
CONSTRUCTION NOISE SOURCES
                EQUIPMENT
     SOUND LEVEL PER UNIT
          (dBA/item)
            Bulldozer
            Air Compressor
            Welding Generator
            Rock Drill
            Pneumatic Drill
            Crane
            Grader
            Dump Truck
              80
              86
              83
              99
              98
              88
              86
              81
           dBA = decibels A-weighted

           Source:  Bolt, Beranek, and Newman.   Noise
           from Construction Equipment and Operations,
           Building Equipment,  and Home Appliances.
           Cambridge, Mass.:  Bolt, Beranek, and
           Newman, 1971.
The principal contributors to cooling tower and power block con-
struction will be pneumatic wrenches and rock drills.  Trucks will
also be significant noise sources, since there are so many.

     Expected noise radiation during plant construction is shown
in Figure 10-4.  Contours of constant sound level (Ldn isopleths)
are shown in 5-dB increments from 30 to 70 dBA.  The results show
that L^n will be greater than 55 dBA within a range of approxi-
mately 4,000 feet (over three-quarters of a mile) of the construc-
tion areas.  This will probably annoy people residing near con-
struction sites.

10.5.5  Plant Operation

     Principal noise sources for a typical coal-fired power plant
will include the cooling towers, pulverizer, bulldozers on the
coal pile, coal car shakers, and railroad car switching.  Repre-
sentative data for these pieces of equipment are listed in Table
10-16.  The effect of the power block and the coal pile in weaken-
ing the noise levels were included in these predictions.

     The predicted radiated noise levels; for plant operation are
shown in Figure 10-5.  L^n levels of 55 dBA will extend to about
one mile from the plant.  Thus, some community annoyance should be
expected out to this distance.  L^n levels of 45 dBA will extend
to about 1.7 miles from the plant.  The plant noise will be no-
ticeable to about this range.
                               856
-------
0)
PM
0)
O
-p

CO
•H
Q
     O
     O
     o
     
-------
       TABLE 10-16:
REPRESENTATIVE SOUND LEVEL FOR COAL-
FIRED POWER PLANT NOISE SOURCES
                EQUIPMENT
       Cooling Towers3
       Pulverizer
       Bulldozers13 (270 horsepower)
       Car Switching0 (50% duty)
       Coal Car Shakers
                SOUND LEVEL PER UNIT
                     (dBA/item)
                         104
                         104
                          80
                          82
                         101
      dBA = decibels A-weighted

      aTracor,  Inc.   Guidelines on Noise.   Washington, D.C.:
      American Petroleum Institute, 1973.

      bBolt, Beranek, and Newman.   Noise from Construction
      Equipment and Operations, Building Equipment, and
      Home Appliances.  Cambridge, Mass.:   Bolt, Beranek,
      and Newman,  1971.

      cSwing, Jack W., and Donald B. Pies.   Assessment of
      Noise Environments Around Railroad Operations, Report
      No. WCR 73-5.El Segundo, Calif.:  Wyle Laboratories,
      1973.
10.6  AESTHETIC IMPACTS

10.6.1  Introduction

     Aesthetic impacts will depend on the personal experiences,
priorities, and values that different people place on visual
qualities.  Aesthetic characteristics are one aspect of quality-
of-life considerations, along with social and economic aspects of
life such as satisfaction with personal income, housing, and em-
ployment.  Since these kinds of concerns are measured most accu-
rately through personal responses, this analysis of aesthetic
impacts is intended only to identify potential areas of concern
associated with western energy resource development.  Our catego-
ries of aesthetic impacts include land, air, noise, water, biota,
and man-made objects  (Table 10-17);  the overall aesthetic quality
of an area probably depends on all these factors.

10.6.2  Land

     Strip mining will be the source of many of the aesthetic
land impacts in the West.  The texture of overburden piles is
usually coarse but not distinctive,  and uniform from pile to pile,
                               858
-------
-p
0)
0)
c
•H

0)
u
c
(0
-p
0)
     o
     o
     o
     CN
     O
     o
     o
     oo
     o
     o
     o
o  -
 I
o
o
o
     O
     o
     o
     00
     o
     o
     o
     (N
                                                 Isopleth

                                            Attenuating

                                            Barriers
-12000    -8000   -4000
                                    -0
                                       4000
8000   12000
                          Distance in  Feet
          FIGURE 10-5
                    RADIATED NOISE  FOR TYPICAL POWER

                    PLANT OPERATION
                                 859
-------
 TABLE 10-17:  CATEGORIES OF AESTHETIC IMPACTS
 CATEGORY
       CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
 Land


 Air


 Noise


 Water



 Biota
 Man-made
   Objects
Surface Texture and Color
Relief and Topographic Character

Odor
Visibility

Background
Intermittent

Clarity and Rate of Movemnet
Shoreline Appearance
Odor and Floating Material

Domestic Animals, Kind and Quantity
Wild Animals
Diversity and Density of Vegetation
Unique Species

Density
Skyline Alteration
Conspicuousness
Overall Impression
Isolation
Unique Composition
Source:  Adapted from Battelle Memorial Institute,
Columbus Laboratories.  Final Environmental Evalu-
ation System for Water Resource Planing, Contract
No. 14-06-D-7182.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Depart-
ment of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, 1972,
pp. 59-86; Brossman, Martin W.  Quality of Life
Indicators; A Review of State-of-the-Art and"
Guidelines Derived to Assist in Developing~Environ-
mental Indicators.Springfield, Va.:National
Technical Information Service, 1972; Water Resources
Research Center of the Thirteen Western States,
Technical Committee.  Water Resources Planning,
Social Goals and Indicators:  Methodological Devel-
opment and Empirical Test.  Logan, Utah:  Utah
University, Utah Water Research Laboratory, 1974.
                      860
-------
The color varies depending on the location but is most often a
uniform gray, a color that quite often contrasts with the sur-
rounding surface.  Long ridges without variation are the major
relief and topographic characteristics of overburden spoils.

     The aesthetic impact of this modified topography is often
dependent on the scenic properties of a region.  In the southwest,
for example, limited vegetation of "badlands" areas and their
heterogenous topography reduce the extent and contrast of strip-
mine spoils.  In the Rocky Mountain areas, the impact of modified
topography may be significant, but in many instances this can
only be viewed from a restricted vantage point.  In the Northern
Great Plains, mine spoils contrast with the surrounding topography,
however, restoration to grasslands or crops occurs more rapidly
than in other areas.

     Requirements for reclamation of strip-mined land include
provisions that land be returned to its original grade.  In some
cases, aesthetics might be improved by regrading efforts that add
distinctive new contours to the land or allow the development of
vegetation which was not natural to the area before mining.  For
additional discussion of reclamation impacts see Chapter 11.

10.6.3  Air

     Aesthetic impacts related to air quality are likely no matter
where conversion facilities are located in the West.  Long-range
visibility as a physical air impact has been discussed in Chapter
11.2.  The long-range visibility and clean air now enjoyed in most
areas of the western states is a valued resource, and the deterio-
ration of visibility is often considered a significant aesthetic
impact.1  A single visible plume in an otherwise clear sky can
result in a negative response from some people.

     Odors are frequently associated with air pollutants, such as
S02 and NOX.  However, there are other causes of odors such as
trace pollutants and various HC's.   Such odors can also detract
from aesthetic quality.

10.6.4  Noise

     Noise impacts are discussed in Section 10.5.  Since noise
criteria have been set for occupational hazards but not for public
nuisance,  most authors place noise in the overall category of aes-
thetic impacts.   Noises which will not damage hearing can still be
aesthetically displeasing and negatively affect quality of life.
As indicated in Chapter 11.6 (transportation), people living near
busy rail lines in the West will be increasingly impacted by noise.


     ^osephy, Alvin M.  "Kaiparowits:   The Ultimate Obscenity."
Audubon, Vol. 78 (Spring 1976),  pp.  64-90.

                               861
-------
10.6.5  Water

     The clarity and rate of movement of water are valued aesthetic
qualities.  Water consumption for energy development will probably
increase turbidity and lower flow rates, thereby reducing the tur-
bulence of water movement in many streams.  Some ecological impacts
of this have been noted as secondary impacts in the local scenar-
ios (Chapters 4-9).

     Shoreline appearance can be affected by increased nutrient
levels in streams which generate shoreline algae, by reduced stream
flows or lake levels which expose previously submerged areas, or
by increased turbidity which may settle out to change the color of
shore areas.  Odors  in streams can be caused by increased biolog-
ical or chemical oxygen demand, excess chlorine or fluorine, and/
or various trace materials and pollutants.  Odors can be perceived
as aesthetically unpleasant even if levels are well within water
quality standards.  Floating material is almost always considered
to be aesthetically  displeasing.  Garbage, beverage cans, sewage,
and oil slicks are usually associated with increased local popu-
lations .

10.6.6  Biota

     Wild or domestic animals may be perceived favorably and con-
sidered to be an aesthetic asset to an area.  A negative impact of
energy facilities will occur when a development reduces the number
of animals either due to disturbance to grazing land or the pres-
ence of an increased human population.  A valued feature of most
public parks is the  diversity and well-being of both vegetation
and wildlife.

     Increased vegetation is almost always a welcome aesthetic
addition in and near urban areas.  Reclamation efforts at strip
mines near towns are critical in this regard.  The presence of
unique species of plants or animals is a valued aesthetic benefit
and reductions in endangered species due to energy development
are possible (see Chapter 11).

10.6.7  Man-Made Objects

     The density of buildings or other man-made objects can be
aesthetically important, and a vast expanse of buildings, railroad
cars, drill holes, or other evidence of human presence is aesthe-
tically objectionable to many people.  Skyline alteration can be
an important impact because of the long distance from which a
structure on the skyline can be observed.  Tall smokestacks and
transmission lines are often the most objectionable of these fea-
tures, especially in the rural West where man-made features are
relatively few.  However, even right-of-way clearings for buried
pipelines may produce an objectionable skyline alteration.


                               862
-------
     Conspicuousness is related to skyline alteration, but a fa-
cility may be conspicuous without altering the skyline.  Color,
architectural design, and location relative to tall natural fea-
tures are important.  Facilities designed to conform to the sur-
roundings wherever possible are often aesthetic benefits rather
than costs.

     In contrast, some individuals also perceive man-made struc-
tures or engineering activities as aesthetically pleasing.  For
example, the sweeping lines of large cooling towers or tall stacks
can be viewed as a positive contribution to an apparently barren
or desolate landscape.  The range of these individual perceptions
highlights the difficulty in generalizing about the aesthetic
costs and benefits of energy resource development.

10.7  PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACTS

10.7.1  Introduction

     As indicated in Sections 10.2, 10.3, and 10.4, energy devel-
opment exposes people to pollutants such as sulfur oxides, partic-
ulates, trace elements, radioactive substances, and organic chem-
icals such as HC.  Each of these can adversely affect public
health.  Some of these chemicals are released in very large quan-
tities, while others are emitted in small amounts.  In addition,
some of these substances may change in the environment to form
compounds with different chemical properties (e.g., sulfates,
nitrates, photochemical oxidants).

     The impact of many of these substances on humans is still un-
certain; however, a number of studies indicate that public health
may be endangered by:  (1)  inhalation of substances emitted from
energy facilities; (2) ingestion of substances from water contam-
inated either directly by effluents or by leaching from waste dis-
posal areas; or  (3)  ingestion of animal or plant foods, such as
milk, that have picked up hazardous substances (e.g., arsenic)  re-
leased by energy conversion processes.  Also, energy development
activities may cause increased accident rates for the general
public. 1

     Health effects can be as clear-cut as increased mortality
(death) from a train accident or as difficult to ascertain as
small increases in birth defects or in the incidence of cancer.
The most pervasive uncertainty is that associated with dose-
response relationships where understanding is incomplete at best.
Human responses to pollutant doses are influenced by a host of
factors, such as:  the individual's age and general health, the
presence or absence of other pollutants, general environmental


     JFor a description of accidents associated with transporta-
tion facilities, see Chapter 11.

                               863
-------
conditions, and the constancy or variation of the pollutant con-
centration.  The level of ill health that is serious varies accord-
ing to age, sex, race, and occupation.  For example, respiratory
irritation caused by elevated SO2 levels may be a minor problem
to teenagers but a major concern to the elderly.1  Types of re-
sponses are identified and summarized in Table 10-18.

     Because dose-response relationships, are uncertain, there is
little agreement on defining appropriate; "zero-effect" exposure
levels for the pollutants produced by energy facilities.  Some
pollutants can be tolerated without adverse effects as long as
exposure is below some threshold level; other pollutants, however,
will cause adverse effects at any level of exposure (no threshold).
Unless these threshold determinations can be made, the only way
to avoid health impacts is to avoid exposure entirely, which is
usually expensive and often unattainable;.  Determination of "zero-
effect" exposure levels for human beings may, in fact, be impos-
sible because of limitations in experimental research  (e.g.,
clinical investigation requires the deliberate exposure of human
subjects to health hazards).  Consequently, determination of dose-
response is generally limited to extrapolations from toxicological
studies of animals or historical studies of human events.  Thus,
adverse health effects from western energy development are diffi-
cult to determine at the current time.

     This section identifies adverse health effects to the general
population outside the "fence-line" of energy facilities,2 addres-
sing several categories of death and illness (Tajale 10-18) .  Data
on the pollutants from energy facilities that could cause health
impacts are identified and discussed by disease category.

10.7.2  Residuals from Energy Development

     Table 10-19 lists some of the residuals introduced by energy
development and the type of health impact which can be associated
with each.  Quantities of most of these pollutants emitted by en-
ergy facilities were given in Chapters 4-9 and summarized in Chap-
ter 3.  Selected data on the relationship of these pollutants to
disease are described for three specific disease categories:  re-
spiratory disease, cancer, and systemic illnesses.


     Argonne National Laboratory, Energy and Environmental Sys-
tems Division, Environmental Impact Studies Division, and Biologi-
cal and Medical Research Division.  A Preliminary Assessment of
the Health and Environmental Effects of Coal Utilization in the
Midwest, Vol. I:  Energy Scenarios, Technology Characterizations,
Air and Water Resource Impacts, and Health Effects, Draft.
Argonne, 111.:  Argonne National Laboratory, 1977, pp. 169-80.

     2Occupational health and safety problems (inside the fence-
line)  are discussed in Section 10.8.

                               864
-------
     TABLE 10-18:   SELECTED  TYPES  OF  HEALTH RESPONSES'
TYPE
Irritation
Coirritant effect
Aggravation of pre-
existing conditions
Direct toxicity
Physical synergisms
or blocking
Carcinogenesis
(Cancer)
Cocarcinogenic
effects
Birth defect or
Teratogenesis
Mutagenesis
Protective effects
DESCRIPTION
Organs or tissues are inflamed as a reaction
against foreign materials. Widespread inflamation
may increase susceptibility to disease.
Stimulation or irritation when exposures with other
substances result in irritation. For example,
simultaneous exposure to both ozone and oxides of
nitrogen can result in additive or multiplicative
responses.
Exposure to some pollutants may have acute or fatal
results if a preexisting heart or lung ailment
exists .
Cellular damage from agents that disrupt cell
function. Key enzymes may be inactivated resulting
in local or widespread loss of organ or tissue
function.
Loss of ciliary activity, for example, or thickening
of tissues that interferes with removal of foreign
materials .
Pollutants or metabolic byproducts may stimulate
uncontrolled growth of tissue that results from
an accumulation of genetic mutations, chromosome
aberration, biochemical changes or viral infection.
A factor that facilitates the induction of cancer
by another substance, (e.g., exposure to sulfur
dioxide increases cancer rate from Benzapyrene
aerosol) .
Abnormal birth or stillbirth resulting from
genetic, maternal, or other causes.
Chromosome or gene damage that may be expressed as
cancer or birth defects or disease.
Some exposures result in the development of cross
tolerances. For example prior exposure to ozone
reduces the irritant effect of a subsequent exposure
to other oxidants.
aModified from Argonne  National  Laboratory, Energy and Environmental Systems
Division, Environmental Impact Studies Division, and Biological and Medical
Research Division.   A Preliminary Assessment of the Health and Environmental
Effects of Coal Utilization  in the Midwest, Vol. I:Energy Scenarios,
Technology Characterizations, Air and Water Resource Impacts, and Health
Effects, Draft.  Argonne,  111.:  Argonne National Laboratory, 1977, pp.
169-80.
                                    865
-------
   TABLE 10-19:
SELECTED RESIDUALS FROM ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
AND TYPES OF HEALTH EFFECTS
         RESIDUAL
                      TYPE OF EFFECT
Air
  Sulfur dioxide (and
  sulfates)
  Fine particulates
  Hydrocarbons
  Trace elements

  Radioactive particles
Water
  Hydrocarbons
  Trace elements

  Bacteria (sewage)
  Radioactive particles
Land and Transportation
  Trains
  Trucks
  Extra-high voltage
  lines
  Pipelines
Construction and Operation
  Employees
           Respiratory disorders

           Respiratory disorders
           Cancer
           Circulatory and respiratory
           disorders
           Cancer

           Cancer
           Circulatory and systemic
           disorders
           Infectious disease
           Cancer

           Accident  (collisions)
           Accident  (collisions)
           Nervous system disorders

           Accidents  (explosion and fire)
           Accidents and disease transmission
                              866
-------
10.7.3  Respiratory Problems

     Accelerated fossil fuel utilization results in increased
emissions of SO2,  NOX,  particulates,  and many other air pollu-
tants.  As shown in Table 10-20, human illness and death from
respiratory diseases have been related to these air pollutants.
Possible effects include increases in new cases and/or aggrava-
tion of existing cases  of bronchitis, emphysema, pneumonia, and
asthma.  There could also be other respiratory and cardiovascular
symptoms, together with secondary effects on other parts of the
body  (such as the heart) that would be strained because of cough-
ing or breathing difficulties.  These effects are especially
likely during prolonged periods of atmospheric inversion when
ambient concentrations  peak.

     Although these effects have been studied intensively, dose-
response relationships  are still ambiguous.  Most research has
concentrated on particulates and S02  (with the 1952 air pollution
disaster in London being a major source of data).  Adverse health
effects appear to result from a complex of emitted pollutants
rather than from any single pollutant.1  Research also indiates
that the risk of health impacts is especially high for children,
asthmatics, the elderly, and individuals who already suffer from
cardio-respiratory disease.2  For example, epidemiological studies
in Great Britain have demonstrated a relationship between partic-
ulate and S02 pollution and the incidence of bronchitis, chronic
cough, and reduced lung function in children.  While S02 is asso-
ciated with lower respiratory tract bacterial illness, NOX seems
to be associated with increased susceptibility to upper respira-
tory tract viral infections, especially in children.  There is
considerable evidence that symptoms of emphysema and other chronic
pulmonary diseases are  worsened by high short-term levels of air
pollution.3  Effects of specific pollutants are discussed below.

A.  Sulfur Dioxide

     Present S02 levels are low (2 to 20 yg/m3) in most rural lo-
cations where energy development will occur.  Installation of
energy facilities, particularly power plants, will contribute to
higher SOz levels as summarized in Chapters 3 and 11.  If scrub-
bers are used, the increase in SO2 caused by energy facilities
     Goldstein, B.D.  Health Effects of Gas-Aerosol Complex,
Report to the Special Committee on Health and Biological Effects
of Increased Coal Utilization.  New York, N.Y.:  New York
University Medical Center, 1977, p. 1.

     2Ibid.,  p. 14.

     3 Ibid.,  p. 1.


                               867
-------
              TABLE  10-20:
     AIR POLLUTANTS AND ASSOCIATED
     RESPIRATORY  HEALTH EFFECTS3
    MAJOR POLLUTANTS
     PRINCIPAL RESPIRATORY EFFECT OF INHALATION
                 (known or suspected)
 Total Suspended
 Particulates
 Oxides of Sulfur




 Photochemical Oxidants



 Oxides of Nitrogen



 Arsenic

 Barium
 Beryllium


 Chromium

 Fluorides


 Manganese
 Nickel Carbonyl

 Phenols and Cresols

 Selenium

 Vanadium
Directly toxic effects or aggravation of the effects
of gaseous pollutants, especially SOx; aggravation
of asthma or other respiratory or cardiorespiratory
symptoms; increased cough and chest discomfort;
increased mortality

Aggravation of respiratory diseases, including
asthma, chronic bronchitis, and emphysema;
reduced lung function: irritation of respiratory
tract; increased mortality

Aggravation of respiratory and cardiovascular ill-
ness, irritation of respiratory tract, impairment
of cardiopulmonary function
Aggravation of respiratory and cardiovascular ill-
ness; increased respiratory inhibition;  cause of
pneumonia

Bronchitis and other respiratory illnesses
Nose and throat irritation

Acute and chronic respiratory disorder from short
term exposure

Lesions of respiratory TIUCOUS membranes

Irritation of respiratory tract and respiratory
impairment

Pneumonia in high doses
Possible cause of asthma
Corrosion of mucous membranes of nasal and
respiratory tract

Respiratory irritation

Acute respiratory irritation
SOX = oxides of sulfur

aKash, Don E., et al.  Impacts of Accelerated Coal Utilization,  Report sub-
mitted to the Office of Technology Assessment.   Norman,  Okla.:   University
of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program,  1977,  p.  8-1.  Adapted from
U.S., Council on Environmental Quality.   Environmental Quality,  Sixth Annual
Report.  Washington, D.C.:   Government Printing  Office,  1975.
                                      868
-------
and urban activities will be below primary and secondary standards
for all averaging times.  One exception is western Colorado, where
plume impaction on elevated terrain will cause primary standards
to be violated.1  If scrubbers are not used, facilities in areas
of relatively flat terrain could result in SO2 concentrations
which exceed the ambient standards designed to protect human
health.

     Even with 80 percent sulfur removal, a potential health prob-
lem could result from exposure to sulfate.  Whether this is a prob-
lem depends on the conversion rates of S02 to sulfate.  As discus-
sed previously in this chapter, rate estimates vary from 1 to 20
percent conversion of S02 to sulfate per hour, although conversion
rates for the facilities studied here appear to range from 1 to 3
percent.2   If conversion rates are 10 percent per hour, 24-hour
ambient sulfate levels are as much as two times greater than
those projected to produce increases in mortality according to
EPA studies (Table 10-21).3

     These data can be extended to compare the health risk of
these levels of atmospheric sulfate against baselines of health
disorders of average U.S. populations (Table 1-22).4  These data
indicate that energy facilities emissions may cause an aggrava-
tion of asthma, and heart and lung disease in the elderly.

B.  Oxidants

     Oxidants in the atmosphere are a product of the photochemical
reactions of HC and N02  (among other compounds).  The process is
augmented in situations where pollutants accumulate by virtue of
topographic and/or meteorological factors.  Although oxidants could
become a problem in the oil shale region  (see Rifle scenario) due


     •"in western Colorado,  values may exceed standards in some
areas during conditions which do not favor dispersal.  On a re-
gional scale of development, additional areas of plume impaction
may occur.

     2U.S., Congress, House of Representatives, Committee on
Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Environment and the At-
mosphere.  Review of Research Related to Sulfates in the Atmos-
phere, Committee Print.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing
Office, 1976.

     3U.S., Environmental Protection Agency.  Position Paper on
Regulation of Atmospheric Sulfates, EPA 450/2-75-077.  Research
Triangle Park, N.C.:  National Environmental Research Center,
1975.

     ''Data on disease incidence in populations at risk within the
eight state study area are not available.

                               869
-------
   TABLE 10-21:
LOCAL SCENARIO SULFATE CONCENTRATIONS
AND THEIR HEALTH EFFECTS
SCENARIO
Kaiparowits/Escalante
Nava j o/Farming ton
Rifle
Gillette
Colstrip
Beulah
HEALTH EFFECTS b
Aggravation of asthma
Increased chronic
bronchitis
Increased acute
respiratory disease
PEAK SULFATE CONCENTRATION
(micrograins per cubic meter)
CONVERSION RATEa
ONE PERCENT
2.2
0.8
1.5
.5
.9
1.1
TEN PERCENT
22
8
15
5
9
11
LEVELS PRODUCING HEATLH EFFECTS
6-10
14
10-25C
Conversion rates vary for different technologies and
are dependent on particle size and other factors.  Rates
for coal-fired power plants have been reported at 1-3
percent per hour, and rates for oil-fired power plants
are as much as 20 percent per hour.

 U.S., Environmental Protection Agency.   Position Paper
on Regulation of Atmospheric Sulfates, EPA 450/2-75/007.
Research Triangle Park, N.C.:  National Environmental
Research Center, 1975.

CU.S., Council on Environmental Quality.  Environmental
Quality, Sixth Annual Report.  Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1975.
                            870
-------
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-------
to HC emissions, the photochemical process is so complex that
predictions of levels or locations- where oxidants may be a health
problem are not possible.

C.  Nitrogen Dioxide and Other Oxides of Nitrogen

     Two important forms of NOx are nitric oxide (NO) and N02.
NO2 is more stable and is  a lung irritant in snort-term exposures
(4-6 hours) at levels as low as 0.5 ppm (1,000 yg/m3).1  Some
studies have indicated diminished lung function and possible
cancer-producing effects from NOX.   Tables 10-23 and 10-24 show
projected NOX concentrations in our scenarios and potential health
effects at various concentrations.2  Acute effects are possible
at N02 concentrations of 1,000 yg/m3 (Table 10-23)  while respira-
tory illness rates increase at 24-hour concentrations above about
150 yg/m3.   Concentrations predicted to occur around urban areas
as a result of energy development (Table 10-23)  are below 100
yg/m3 except at Farmington and Gillette.  However,  peak 24-hour
concentrations in the vicinity of power plants are all above 100
yg/m3 and range as high as 1,200 yg/m3 where plumes impact on
rugged terrain.  While these extremely high values due to plume
impaction probably do not  present a major health problem (since
few people generally reside where the plumes impact), some in-
crease in respiratory illness rates in the vicinity of power
plants is possible.

D.  Particulates

     Although much of the  research focus on health effects has
been on total suspended particulates (TSP), it now appears that
fine particulates may be a more important contributor to health


     Argonne National Laboratory,  Energy and Environment Systems
Division, Environmental Impact Studies Division, and Biological
and Medical Research Division.  A Preliminary Assessment of the
Health and Environmental Effects of Coal Utilization in the Mid-
west, Vol.  I:  Energy Scenarios, Technology Characterizations, Air
and Water Resource Impacts and Health Effects, Draft.  Argonne,
111.:  Argonne National Laboratory, 1977, p. 171.

     2See Chapman, R.S., et al.  "Chronic Respiratory Disease."
Archives of Environmental  Health, Vol. 27 (September 1973) , pp.
138-42; U.S., Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Public
Health Service, National Air Pollution Control Administration.
Chattanooga, Tennessee-Rossville, Georgia Interstate Air Quality
Study, 1967-68, Publication No. APTD-0533.  Durham, N.C.:  National
Air Pollution Control Administration, n.d.; and Shy, C.M., et al.
"The Chattanooga School Children Study:  Effects of Community
Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide; Incidence of Acute Respiratory
Illness."  Journal of the  Air Pollution Control Association, Vol.
20  (September 1970), pp. 582-88.

                               872
-------
       TABLE 10-23:
PEAK NITROGEN DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION
FOR SCENARIO LOCATIONS
(24-hour average measured in
micrograms per cubic meter)
LOCATION
Kaiparowits
Escalante
Farmington
Rifle (Grand Valley)
Gillette
Colstrip
Beulaha
SOURCE
URBAN
(1990)
88
-
163
57
140
54
42
POWER PLANT
130 - 220
760 - 1,260
125 - 210
380 - 630
115 - 190
120 - 200
170 - 280
Acute Biological
Effects 1,000 (4-6 hours)
            *Urban value is for 1995, not 1990.
impacts.1  Particulate scrubbers can remove approximately 99 per-
cent  (by weight) of the particulates in power plant emissions;
however, this efficiency varies as a function of particle size.
Fine particulates are not trapped as efficiently as larger partic-
ulates by current particulate removal systems.  These fine partic-
ulates may pose serious health hazards because they can absorb
sulfates, heavy metals, and nitrogen compounds and carry them into
respiratory systems.2  While larger particulates also possess
this property, smaller particulates are especially amenable to
absorption of toxic materials, including trace metals.3  In com-
bination with gaseous air pollutants, such as S02 , particulates
           particulates are those less than 3 microns in size.

     2Electric Power Research Institute.  "Coordinating the
Attack on Particulates."  EPRI Journal, Vol. 2 (September 1977),
pp. 16-18.

     3Glass, Norman R. , ed.  "Environmental Effects of Increased
Coal Utilization:  Ecological Effects of Gaseous Emissions from
Coal Combustion."  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protec
tion Agency, Office of Research and Development,  Office of
Health and Ecological Effects, November 4, 1977.
                               873
-------
  TABLE 10-24:
AVERAGE BIWEEKLY RESPIRATORY ILLNESS RATES PER
1,000 FAMILIES ACCORDING TO EXPOSURE TO
NITROGEN DIOXIDE
N02 EXPOSURE LEVEL (Average 2 4 -hoar)
PARTS PER
MILLION
0.109
0.078
0.062
0.043
MICROGRAMS PER
CUBIC METER
200
150
117
90
ILLNESS RATE
FOR ALL
FAMILY
MEMBERS
17.7
17.5
16.3
15.0
 N02  = nitrogen dioxide

 aModified from Braustein,  H.S.,  E.D.  Copenhaver,  and H.A.
 Pfuderer.   Environmental,  Health and  Control Aspects of Coal
 Conversion:   An Information Overview.   Oak  Ridge,  Tenn.:   Oak
 Ridge National Laboratory,  1977, Vol.  2,  p.  10-79;  and Shy,  C.M.,
 et al.  "The Chattanooga School  Children  Study:   Effects  of  Com-
 munity Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide;  Incidence of Acute Respira-
 tory Illness."  Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association,
 Vol. 20 (September 1970),  pp.  582-88.
may worsen the toxic effects.1  Furthermore,  the smaller size of
fine particulates allows them to be inhaled deeper into the lungs
(Figure 10-6).

     There is a significant natural background level of airborne
particulates in all areas, especially in arid environments.  Very
wide variations occur; the range is 1-600 ug/m3 or more and is a
function of the arid conditions and occasional dust storms.  Thus,
the 24-hour federal primary standard of 260 yg/m3 is probably
exceeded frequently throughout a year.
     1Argonne National Laboratory, Energy and Environmental Sys-
tems Division, Environmental Impact Studies Division, and Biological
and Medical Research Division.  A Preliminary Assessment of the
Health and Environmental Effects of Coal Utilization in the Mid-
west, Vol. I:  Energy Scenarios, Technology Characterizations, Air
and Water Resource Impacts and Health Effects, Draft.  Argonne,
111.:  Argonne National Laboratory, 1977.
                               874
-------
       0)
       4->
       •H
       CO
       o
       D,
       0)
       O
       O
       (0
1.0




0.9



0.8




0.7



0.6




0.5



0.4




0.3




0.2
             0.1 -
         n
T| IITTJ   \  r 11 ii


 Nasopharyngeal
  Nasopharyngeal
                                                      I  i i  1 1 1 1
                         Tracheo-
                         Bronchial
                   I i i lilill
                10
                  -2
              10
               10-
10'
   FIGURE 10-6:
                -1
                             Median  Diameter y
     FRACTION INHALED PARTICLES DEPOSITED  IN  THE
     THREE RESPIRATORY TRACT COMPARTMENTS  AS  A

     FUNCTION OF MASS MEDIAN DIAMETER
Source:  Braumstein, H.M., E.D.  Coperhaven and H.A. Pfudever.
Environmental, Health and Control  Aspects of Coal Conversion:
An Information Overview.  Vol.  2~,  p^  10-24.   Oak Ridge National
Laboratory, April 1977.
                              875
-------
     Over the six scenarios, energy facilities will contribute
18-152 ug/m3 to ambient air particulate loading, and urban expan-
sion will contribute about 30-100 yg/m3.   Because ambient concen-
trations periodically exceed standards, emissions from facilities
and urban expansion may aggravate health problems.  The particles
emitted from energy facilities will be small (half of the parti-
cles, by weight, have a diameter below 1-3 microns) and will re-
main suspended in the atmosphere over long distances (hundreds
of miles).

10.7.4  Cancer

     The pollutants of primary concern as to the incidence of
cancer from increased combustion or conversion of fossil are HC
and radioactivity.  HC compounds such as benzo(a)pyrene, a poly-
nuclear aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH), as well as air and waterborne
radioactive elements are known to cause cancer in experimental
animals and are considered responsible for certain kinds of can-
cer in people.  Although the clearest danger of such impacts
is in connection with occupational health (discussed in Section
10.8), there are some risks to public health as well.  Some car-
cinogenic substances and their effects are summarized in Table
10-25.  HC and radioactive emissions and effects are discussed
in more detail.

A.  Hydrocarbons

     Fossil fuel combustion or conversion (e.g., synthetic fuel
processes)  create HC compounds that do not exist naturally.  For
instance, the pyrolysis of organic materials often leads to car-
cinogenic tars, including condensed PAH,  due to incomplete com-
bustion.1  Generally, the hotter the temperature at which fuels
are carbonized, the greater the production of carcinogenic agents.
Some HC are carcinogenic on their own.  Others are cocarcinogenic:
that is, in combination with a "promoter," they change from being
inactive to being carcinogenic.  For example, either S02 or par-
ticulates when in combination with benzo(a)pyrene have been
shown to be associated with lung tumor formation.2  Still other
HC appear to be anticarcinogenic, at least under certain condi-
tions.  One research conclusion to date is that the combination
     xKennaway, E.G.  "Experiments on Cancer-Producing Substances."
British Medical Journal, Vol. 2 (1925),  pp. 1-4, as cited in Falk,
Hans L.  Health Effects of Coal Mining and Combustion, No. 7:
Carcinogens and Cofactors.  Oak Ridge,  Tenn.:  Oak Ridge National
Laboratory, Information Center Complex,  Environmental Reponse
Center, 1977, p. 27.

     2Much of this research has been conducted on laboratory ani-
mals and the effects on humans are less  certain.

                              876
-------
           TABLE  10-25:  CARCINOGENS  AND  THEIR  EFFECTS
          SUBSTANCE
    PRINCIPAL CARCINOGENIC EFFECT OF
   INHALATION, INGESTION, AND CONTACT
 Arsenic

 Benzene

 Beryllium

 Cadmium

 Chromium

 Hydrocarbons

 Lead

 Nickel

 Nickel Carbonyl

 Phenols and Cresols

 Polycyclic Aromatic
   Hydrocarbons

 Some Radioactive Substances
   (Compositions vary
   with different types
   of coal)

 Zinc Chloride
Skin cancer

Suspected cause of leukemia

Suspected cause of bone and lung cancer

Possible relation to prostate cancer

Suspected cause of lung cancer

Suspected contribution to cancer

Suspected occupational carcinogen

Occupational cancer incidence

Cause of lung cancer

Occupational carcinogen (skin)

Carcinogen
Linkage with a few certain types of
cancer
Possible carcinogen
Source:  U.S., Council on Environmental Quality.   Environmental Quality,
Sixth Annual Report.   Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office,  1975;
U.S., Council on Environmental Quality.  Environmental Quality, Seventh
Annual Report.  Washington,  D.C.:  Government Printing Office,  1976.
                                   877
-------
of cigarette smoking and urban air pollution is clearly associated
with a high incidence of lung cancer.1   Investigators in Britain
have also found a relationship between air pollution and stomach
cancer,2 and the same effect has been observed in the U.S.3  One
study estimated that a 1,000 MWe coal-fired plant, located in
an area where a population of 1.5 million lived within an 80
kilometer radius, would result in 1-6 deaths a year due to PAH
emissions.4

     Measurements of HC are not available in most rural areas in-
cluded in these scenarios but high background HC levels (130 yg/m3)
have been measured in the oil shale area of northwestern Colorado.
Sources of HC include vegetation, evaporation from subsurface
petroleum deposits,5 and present urban/industrial activity.  How-
ever, these naturally occurring HC have low PAH content.

     In many urban areas the current federal 3-hour ambient air
quality standard for HC is already exceeded largely due to auto-
motive emissions.  Data from our site-specific analyses (sum-
marized in Section 3.2) indicate that the HC standard will be
violated as a result of urban expansion induced by energy devel-
opment at most such sites in the West.  In addition to cars, the
major sources of HC are fugitive losses from synthetic fuels
plants and fuel storage facilities.  Power plant operations are
            Hans L.  Health Effects of Coal Mining and Combustion,
No. 7:  Carcinogens and Cofactors.  Oak Ridge, Tenn.:   Oak Ridge
National Laboratory, Information Center Complex, Environmental
Response Center, 1977.

      2 Ibid.; Goldstein, B.D.  Health Effects of Gas-Aerosol Com-
plex, Report to the Special Committee on Health and Biological
Effects of Increased Coal Utilization.  New York, N.Y.:  New York
University Medical Center, 1977, p. 1.

      3Falk.  Health Effects of Coal Mining, No.7.

      4Argonne National Laboratory.  An Assessment of the Health
and Environmental Impacts of Fluidized Bed Combustion of Coal
Applied to Electric Utility Systems, Draft.  Argonne,  111.:
Argonne National Laboratory, 1977, as cited in Baser,  M.E., and
S.C. Morris.  Assessment of the Potential Role of Trace Metal
Health Effects in Limiting the Use of Coal Fired Electric Power,
informal report.  Upton, N.Y.:  Brookhaven National Laboratory,
National Center for Analysis of Energy Systems, Biomedical and
Environmental Assessment Division, 1977, p. 11; and Lundy, R.,
as cited in Ibid.

      5See Section 10.8 for a description of cancer related to
crude oil extraction and refining.


                               878
-------
generally a minor contributor.  These new sources of PAH compounds
will be introduced into areas that have been relatively free of
such contamination.  Although stack gas cleaning systems remove
most of the PAH, removal may only imply transferral to sludge ma-
terials.  These solid wastes and others from new coal conversion
technologies may pose new health dangers since carcinogenic com-
pounds could escape from the solid waste disposal areas and enter
water supply systems.  Very little is known about the potential
seriousness of water contamination.

B.  Radioactive Materials

     Exposure to radiation is possible from coal, uranium, and
oil shale resource systems.  Very little is known about the fate
of radioactive materials from oil shale processing and it is not
considered further here.  Current information on exposure to
radioactive materials from coal and uranium facilities is dis-
cussed below.

(1) Coal Facilities

     Radioactivity in coal is highly variable, as shown in Table
10-26.  Reported values for Radium 226 (Ra-226), a major source
of this radioactivity, generally range from 1 to 4 picocuries1
per gram (pCi/g) of coal in the U.S.2  When coal is burned, most
of the radium remains with the ash and is therefore concentrated.
Ra-226 concentrations have been reported in various coal ashes,
ranging from 2.1 to 5.0 pCi/g with a mean of 3.8 pCi/g;3  other
investigators have reported up to 8.0 pCi/g.  This may be com-
pared with a typical value of 1.0 pCi/g for ordinary soils.

     Depending on the disposition of the ash retained by the col-
lectors, opportunities exist for radioactivity to enter the en-
vironment.  If the ash is simply accumulated in piles, radio-
active material may be resuspended with dust or leached from the
piles to local surface waters.  Radon-222  (Rn-222)  (a product of
     Picocuries, a standard measurement of radioactivity, indi-
cate the disintegration of 0.037 nuclei per second.

     2Jaworowski, A., et al.  "Artificial Sources of Natural
Radionuclides in the Environment," in Adams, J., W.M. Lowder, and
T.F. Gesell, eds.  Natural Radiation Environment, CONF 720805-P2.
Washington, B.C.:  U.S., Energy Reserach and Development Adminis-
tration, 1972, pp. 809-18.

     3Eisenbud, M., and H.G. Petrow.  "Radioactivity in the Atmo-
spheric Effluents of Power Plants That Use Fossil Fuels."  Science,
Vol. 144 (April 17, 1964), pp. 288-89.

                               879
-------
    TABLE 10-26:
RADIOACTIVITY IN SELECTED COALSa
(picocuries per gram)
COAL SAMPLE
LOCATION
Western U.S.
Utah
Wyoming
Montana
Other U.S.
Widow's Creek
Appalachian
Bartsville
Alabama
Tennessee Valley
Authority
Colbert
Foreign
Japan
Australia
Poland
Ra-226

1.3
2.9b

1.6
3.8
2.3
2.3
4.25
3.1
7.98
2.0b
Ra-228

0.8
1.3
0.8

2.7
2.4
3.1
2.2
2.85
6.9
1.5
Th-220

1.0
1.6
0.8

2.8
2.6
2.3
2.85
1.6
1.6
Th-232

—
0.8

2.7
3.1
-
2.85
6.9
-
Ra = radium
Th = thorium
         - = unknown
aEisenbud, M.,  and H.G.  Petrow.   "Radioactivity in
the Atmospheric Effluents of Power Plants That Use
Fossil Fuels."   Science, Vol. 144 (April 17, 1964),
pp. 288-89; Martin, J.E., E.D. Harward, and D.T.
Oakley.  "Radiation Doses from Fossil Fuel and Nuclear
Power Plants,"  in International Atomic Energy Agency
Symposium, New York, 1970, Report SM-146/19.  Vienna,
Austria:  International  Atomic Energy Agency, 1971,
pp. 107-25; Jaworowski,  A., et al.   "Artificial
Sources of Natural Radionuclides in the Environment,"
in Adams, J., W.M. Lowder, and T.F.  Gesell, eds.
Natural Radiation Environment, CONF 172805-P2.
Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Energy Research and Develop-
ment Administration, 1972, pp. 809-18; Bedrosian, P.H.,
D.G. Easterly,  and S.L.  Cummings.  Radiological
Survey Around Power Plants Using Fossil Fuel, Report
#EERL 71-3.  Washington, D.C.:  UTS., Environmental
Protection Agency, 1971.

^Assuming 15 percent ash content.
                           880
-------
the radioactive decay of thorium and radium)  emanates as a gas
from these piles.1

     Concentrations of radioactivity in the air due to coal com-
bustion may be estimated by multiplying the radioactivity in the
fly ash by the airborne concentration of the fly ash.  For example,
for the Kaiparowits scenario, Table 10-27 gives airborne radio-
activity concentrations in three towns for the years 1990 and
2000.  Lung doses can be calculated2 from these and are given in
Table 10-28 for the seven most important radioisotopes found in
coal.  Several studies carried out at higher dose rates than
these found a risk rate of 1.2 cases of lung cancer per year per
million exposed persons at one rem3 exposures.1*  For the doses
calculated in Table 10-28, this translates into an individual
risk of one chance in 30 billion of contracting cancer in any
one year.  Thus, cancer risks due to airborne radioactivity from
coal combustion are negligible.

(2)  Uranium Mining and Milling

     One serious radioactivity problem in uranium development is
tailing piles from uranium milling operations that contain several
thousand times as much radium as ordinary soils.  According to
     1Martin, J.E.  "Comparative Population Radiation Dose Com-
mitments of Nuclear and Fossil Fuel Electric Power Cycles," in
Proceedings of the Eighth Midyear Topical Symposium of the Health
Physics Society:  Population Exposure, CONF-741018.  Washington,
D.C.:  U.S., Atomic Energy Commission, 1974.

     2 International Commission on Radiological Protection.  Rec-
ommendation of the International Commission on Radiological Pro-
tection on Permissible Dose for Internal Radiation, Report No. 2.
New York, N.Y.:  Pergamon, 1959.

     3A rem is a unit of radiation received by an organism (as
particles or rays) proportional to the amount of potential bio-
logical damage.  Natural background dosage levels are approxi-
mately 0.125 rem.

     4Assuming an average exposure period of 30 years, this trans-
lates to a risk of 36 lung cancer cases per million persons at
one rem exposure.  National Academy of Sciences/National Research
Council, Advisory Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing
Radiation.  The Effects on Populations of Exposure to Low Levels
of Ionizing Radiation.  Washington, D.C.:  National Academy of
Sciences, 1972.

                               881
-------
TABLE 10-27:  ESTIMATED ANNUAL AVERAGE AIRBORNE  RADIOACTIVITY
              DUE TO COAL COMBUSTION IN  1990 AND 2000
TOWN
Page
Escalante
Glen Canyon
RADIOACTIVITY CONCENTRATION
(picomicrocuries per cubic meter) a
U238
0.6
0.6
0.6
U231t
0.6
0.6
0.6
Th230
0.6
0.6
0.6
Ra22(;
0.6
0.5
0.6
Th232
0.7
0.7
0.7
Ra228
0.5
0.5
0.5
Th228
0.4
0.4
0.4
 U = uranium          Th = thorium

 a'10~18 curie per cubic meter.
                            Ra = radium
  TABLE 10-28:
ESTIMATED INDIVIDUAL LUNG DOSES  IN VICINITY
OF PAGE, ESCALANTE, AND GLEN CANYON  DUE  TO
ATMOSPHERIC RADIOACTIVITY PRODUCED BY  COAL
COMBUSTION
ISOTOPE
U238
u23"
Th230
Ra226
Th232
Ra228
Th228
ESTIMATED DOSE
(yrem per year) a
0.2
0.2
3.0
0.5
2.6
0.8
3.0
               yrem = 10   rem
               U = uranium
                   Th = thorium
                   Ra = radium
               aNote that natural background
               radiation = 0.125 rem = 125,000
               yrem.
                              882
-------
one study, exposures from uranium tailings piles pose a signifi-
cant health risk at distances up to 1 kilometer.1

     The uranium mill is also the energy facility releasing the
greatest quantity of uranium particulates to the atmosphere and
the source of the major uranium population exposure dose.2  Most
of the atmospheric uranium releases are from the drying process.3
Although the amount of uranium radioactivity released is substan-
tially lower than that of radon, the dose of radioactivity from
uranium which actually reaches human tissues is over two orders
of magnitude higher;1* this results in the relatively high popu-
lation exposure doses due to uranium.5

     Estimates of the radiation doses to individuals through the
air pathway in the vicinity of a mill from routine plant emissions
(not tailings piles) are shown in Table 10-29.  They include esti-
mated "collective" lung doses to the population in the vicinity.
The average "collective" lung dose is determined by summing the
individual radiation doses to individuals living throughout an
80 kilometer radius of the mill.6

     Potential health effects to members of the general population
in the vicinity of a model mill are estimated to be 0.0002 lung
cancers per year of operation of 0.005 lung cancers for 30 years
             Jerry J.,  James M. Hardin, and Harry W. Galley.
Potential Radiological Impact of Airborne Releases and Direct
Gamma Radiation to Individuals Living Near Inactive Uranium Mill
Tailings Piles.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protec-
tion Agency, Office of Radiation Programs, 1976.

     2Hong, Lee, et al.   Potential Radioactive Pollutants Re-
sulting from Expanded Energy Programs.  Las Vegas, Nev.:  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, August 1977, p. 125.

     3 Ibid.

     t*Rn-222 is a radioactive isotope produced from the decay
of thorium and radium.   It is emitted as a gas and rises in the
atmosphere; thus, less of it is available to be respired by the
population.  Uranium is emitted as a dust from low level sources
and remains at low levels, making it more available to be respired
by humans.

     5Hong, et al.  Potential Radioactive Pollutants.

     6U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Radiation
Programs.  Environmental Analysis of the Uranium Fuel Cycle, Part
IV:  Supplementary Analysis.  Washington, D.C.:  Environmental
Protection Agency, July 1976, p. 23.

                               883
-------
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-------
of operation.1  This calculation assumed that food consumed by
individuals living near the mill is not produced locally so that
exposure through food chains is not significant compared to lung
exposures resulting from the direct inhalation of radioactive
particulate matter.  The radon exposure pathway was excluded.
Significant radon exposure is also likely.2

     In the vicinity of uranium mills and tailing piles in the
Grants Mineral Belt area, New Mexico, radon levels are up to 10
times the accepted standards.3  Studies have indicated that a
significant risk to health may result to workers and residents
of the area from these doses to lung tissues.  Apparent sources
of this elevated readiation level have been particles and gases
from mines and tailings piles.4  Currently the New Mexico state
government is conducting a more detailed study to evaluate this
health risk.  Programs to minimize exposure to workers and the
general public from uranium mill tailings are being conducted in
Colorado.5

10.7.5  Systemic Illness

     Western energy development results in releases of small
amounts of many toxic substances, including CO, cadmium, arsenic,
     JU.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Radiation
Programs.  Environmental Analysis of the Uranium Fuel Cycle,
Part IV:  Supplementary Analysis.  Washington, D.C.:  Environ-
mental Protection Agency, July 1976, p. 26.

     2Radon is the major residual radiation source in a uranium
mill.  See U.S., Atomic Energy Commission, Directorate of
Licensing, Fuels and Materials.  Environmental Survey of the
Uranium Fuel Cycle, WASH-1248.  Washington, D.C.:  Atomic Energy
Commission, 1972, p. S-19.

     3New Mexico Environmental Improvement Agency.  Personal
Communication, November 1977.

     "Ibid.

     5Mesa County Department of Health.  "Fact Sheet:  Uranium
Mill Tailings Remedial Action Program."  Grand Junction, Colo.:
Mesa County Department of Health, February 1973, p. 4; and Mesa
County Department of Health.  "Colorado's Involvement with Uranium
Mill Tailings."  Grand Junction, Colo.:  Mesa County Department of
Health, August 9, 1976, pp. 1-17; and Parmenter, Cindy.  "U.S. May
Foot 90% of Bill to Clean Up Uranium Tailings."  Denver Post,
July 22, 1978, p. 16.

                               885
-------
and vanadium.  There is a risk that (in spite of careful con-
trols) some of these substances will be inhaled or ingested by
people, causing problems that vary in seriousness from irrita-
tion to death.  Many toxic substances appear to be threats mainly
to occupational health, but public health could be affected as
well.

     Although trace elements are present in very small quantities
in fuels, they can be concentrated in waste streams, enter the
ecological system and tend to accumulate in organisms.  Potential
emission rates for trace elements were discussed earlier in this
chapter.  The most immediate health concern is that dietary in-
take levels for some trace metals are already approaching what
have been defined by World Health Organization/Food and Agricul-
ture Organization as tolerable limits.  Cadmium intake, for exam-
ple, is estimated at 75 percent of the limit, and increases of
cadmium concentrations in soil are reflected widely in foodstuffs.l
Mercury and lead are also close to tolerable levels.  Thus, rela-
tively small additions from individual energy facilities might
lead to serious long-term health effects if a large number of new
facilities are involved.  The effects of selected trace elements
are discussed below.

A.  Lead

     Lead is present as a natural substance in airborne particu-
lates, coal, and oil shale, but it is essentially absent from
petroleum.  The average adult has a daily intake of 300 micrograms
(pg) of lead, with about 90 percent via ingestion and 10 percent
via respiration.  However, absorption of lead via the gastro-
intestinal system is only about 10 percent, whereas absorption
via the pulmonary route is 30-50 percent.2  Thus, airborne lead
could account for up to half the total lead absorbed.3  In view
of the steadily increasing pollution of air and soils with lead
from motor vehicle exhausts, accumulation and toxicity in exposed
human beings may occur.1*  Chronic lead poisoning requires months
     :Mahaffey, K.R.,  et al.  "Heavy Metal Exposure from Foods."
Environmental Health Perspective, Vol. 12 (1975), pp. 63-69.

     2Schroeder, H.A., and I.H.  Tipton.  "The Human Body Burden
of Lead."  Archives of Environmental Health, Vol. 17 (December
1968),  pp. 965-78.

     3Goldsmith, J.R., and A.C.  Hexter.  "Respiratory Exposure
to Lead:  Epidemiological and Experimental Dose Response Relation-
ships."  Science, Vol. 158  (October 6, 1967), pp. 132-34.

     **Ibid.

                              886
-------
or years to develop.  At present, there is concern that exposure
to even very low levels of lead will produce subtle central ner-
vous system pathologies, especially in children.

     Increased emissions of lead from energy facilities can be
significant both in terms of direct exposure to humans and because
airborne lead will settle to the ground and enter the food web.
However, the lead emitted from energy facilities will probably
be minute as compared to that resulting from the expanded popula-
tion's use of motor vehicles burning leaded gasolines.  As lead
compounds are removed from gasoline, the overall risk would be
reduced.

B.  Mercury

     Mercury occurs in coal, petroleum, and probably in oil shale.
Depending on the combustion system and ancillary air pollution
control devices, 10-90 percent of the contained mercury can be
emitted to the atmosphere.  This mercury emitted can be converted
to the more toxic organic form by microorganisms, and then con-
centrated in food webs.  Exposure to elevated mercury levels in
foods produces nervous system disorders and death.1  The Food
and Drug Administration (FDA) has established a 500 parts per
billion (ppb) standard for mercury levels in food.

     The level of mercury emitted to the atmosphere by energy
facilities is unlikely to constitute a hazard from direct expo-
sure or ingestion.  However, intrusion of mercury into the aqua-
tic food web raises possibilities of contamination of fish used
as human food.  For example, in the Kaiparowits scenario (Chapter
4), mercury can reach Lake Powell from the facilities by direct
fallout from emissions and by runoff.  Mercury deposition from
the hypothetical Kaiparowits power plant alone ranges from 16 to
480 pounds of mercury entering the lake each year, or 1-27 percent
of the present estimated rate of addition from natural sources.2
Levels in some predatory fish in Lake Powell currently exceed the
standard of 500 ppb, and energy facility emissions have been
estimated to cause increases of 10-50 percent above this value,
     Pettyjohn, Wayne A.  "Trace Elements and Health," in Petty-
john, Wayne A., ed.  Water Quality in a Stressed Environment:
Readings in Environmental Hydrology.  Minneapolis, Minn.:  Bur-
gess, 1972, pp. 245-246.

     2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.
Final Environmental Impact Statement:  Proposed Kaiparowits Proj-
ect, 6 vols.  Salt Lake City, Utah:  Bureau of Land Management,
1976.

                               887
-------
depending on the number of plants,  locations,  and coal character-
istics . 1

C.  Cadmium

     Cadmium is found in coal and oil shale but is absent from
petroleum.  Cadmium is known to be highly toxic as particulates
or fumes; it accumulates in the human kidney and liver, acts on
the circulatory system,2 irritates the lung (producing emphysema),3
and at higher exposures causes damage to the excretory system.^
Some of these effects occur at atmospheric concentrations of
500-2,500 yg/m3 over as little as 3 days.5  Lower levels may be
associated with high blood pressure or stomach and intestinal
disorders.  Between 4 and 41 percent of the cadmium in coal is
emitted as flue gas in three power plants recently studied.6
Thus, because of potential emission of between 60 and 2,000
pounds/year7 (from a 3,000 megawatts [MW] power plant) and the
possible role of cadmium in producing hypertension, a health
hazard may exist from its accumulation in humans.

D.  Arsenic

     The toxicity of arsenic depends on its chemical form.  Metal-
lic arsenic is thought to be nontoxic, while arsine (AsH3, a


     ^tandiford, D.R., L.D. Potter, and D.E.  Kidd.  Mercury in
the Lake Powell Ecosystem, Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin
No. 1.  Los Angeles, Calif.:  University of California, Institute
of Geophysics nad Planetary Physics, 1973, p.  16.

     2Schroeder, H.A.  "Cadmium, Chromium, and Cardiovascular Dis-
ease."  Circulation, Vol. 35  (March 1967), pp. 570-82.

     3Bouhoys, A., and J.M. Peters.  "Control of Environmental
Lung Disease."  New England Journal of Medicine, Vol. 283  (Sep-
tember 10, 1970), pp. 573-82.

     ^Piscator, M. , K.L. Beckmans, and. A.B. Tryckerier, eds.
Proteninuria in Chronic Cadmium Poisoning.  Stockholm, Sweden:
n.p., 1966.

     5Schroeder, H.A.  Cadmium, Zinc, and Mercury, Air Quality
Monograph No. 70-16.  Washington, D.C.:  American Petroleum In-
stitute, n.d.

     6Radian Corporation.  Coal Fired Power Plant Trace Element
Study, Vol. 1:  A Three Station Comparison.  Austin, Tex.:  Ra-
dian Corporation, 1975, p. 36.

     7 Ibid., p. 31.

                              888
-------
colorless gas)  is extremely toxic.1  Because arsenic is suspected
of being a carcinogen, exposure from coal combustion or conver-
sion facilities increases the possibility of cancer.  Arsenic
deposited in the aquatic environment may undergo microbiological
transformation similar to what has been observed with mercury.

E.  Vanadium

     Vanadium is present in coal, petroleum, and oil shale.  The
production of residual petroleum fuels results in a concentration
of the vanadium compounds which then are released during combus-
tion.  Vanadium has low toxicity in most forms, although there are
some associations between airborne vanadium and respiratory dis-
ease.  Vanadium dioxide acts as an acid in aqueous solution and
when inhaled contributes to respiratory irritation.2  Most cases
of respiratory effects have resulted from exposures of 1-50 pg/m3
in dusty air.3  In 1967, the annual average concentration of air-
borne vanadium in nonurban western locations was approximately
0.003 yg/m3 , "* making the dose of 1-50 yg/m3 many thousand times
greater than ambient concentrations.  This element is potentially
harmful because of its involvement in respiratory disease and
bcause it is a "new" or introduced element in the local environ-
ment.

10.7.6  Population-Related Health Problems

     Some of the greatest potential impacts on health are indi-
rectly attributed to energy development because they result from
rapid population growth.5  Population growth can cause impacts
of two general types:   (1) impacts dependent on public services,
including inadequate water supplies, sewage treatment, solid
waste management, and health care services; and (2) disease

     ^.S., Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public
Health Service.  Preliminary Air Pollution Survey of Arsenic and
Its Compounds.  Raleigh, N.C.:  Public Health Service, 1969.

     2Stokinger, H.E.  "Vanadium," in Patty F.A., ed.  Industrial
Hygiene and Toxicology, Vol. 2.  New York, N.Y.:  Wiley Inter-
science, 1963, pp. 1171-82.

     3Lewis, C.E.  "The Biological Actions of Vanadium, II."
Archives of Industrial Health, Vol. 19 (1959) , p. 497.

     ^Athanassiadis, Y.C.  Air Pollution Aspects of Vanadium and
Its Compounds, National Air Pollution Control Administration.
Bethesda, Md.:  Litton Systems, Inc., 1969.

     5Copley International Corporation.  Health Impacts of Environ-
mental Pollution in Energy-Development Impacted Communities, Ex-
ecutive Summary for the Environmental Protection Agency.  La Jolla,
Calif.:  Copley International, 1977, pp.  29-30.
                              889
-------
transmission and increases in accident rates associated with
crowding.1  These two categories are closely linked; for example,
improved public services can reduce accidents and adequate health
services can minimize the incidence of disease.

     Increases in community size shown in Table 10-30 are a func-
tion of employment in energy facilities and population multipliers
for secondary services (see sections on social and economic im-
pacts in Chapters 4-9).  For some communities, existing facili-
ties are adequate; in others, such as Farmington, sewage treat-
ment is inadequate or, as in Gillette, water supplies are limited.
When community environmental services become overloaded, con-
tamination of the environment may occur.  In Fruitland, New Mexico,
for example, population growth associated with two large power
plants and surface coal mines has resulted in a proliferation of
mobile homes and septic tanks that leak sewage.2  In many rural
locations, inadequate water supply affects personal hygiene which
in turn is conducive to the transfer of pathogens among people.3

     A variety of criteria can be applied to assess the signifi-
cance of health problems caused by inadequate environmental ser-
vices, including rate of population growth, number of persons
per dwelling unit, capacity of water treatment and sewage treat-
ment systems relative to demand, distance to a physician or hos-
pital, and the presence of community health plans.k  Based on
these criteria, a recent study indicated that energy development
significantly affected 60 communities, 38 are moderately affected,
(Table 10-31), and another 114 would be potentially affected ad-
versely5 if population continues to grow without added services.
     1 Copley International Corporation.  Health Impacts of Envi-
ronmental Pollution in Energy-Development~Impacted Communities^
Executive Summary for the Environmental Protection Agency.  La"
Jolla, Calif.:  Copley International, 1977, pp. 29-30.  For a
description of accidents associated with transportation facilities,
see Chapter 11.

     2New Mexico, Environmental Improvement Agency, Staff.
Personal Communication, June 1977.

     3Copley.  Health Impacts of Environmental Pollution.

     "Ibid., pp. 13-16.

     5States included in the study are in EPA Region VIII  (Colo-
rado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming).
States not included but a part of this technology assessment are
Arizona and New Mexico.  Ibid.


                               890
-------
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                                                        892
-------
     Diseases and increases in accident rates associated with
crowding are also likely to increase in energy impacted communi-
ties.  Crowding, for example, favors the spread of airborne
pathogens such as influenza, the common cold, as well as child-
hood and other contagious diseases.  In addition, crowding pro-
duces stress that can result in mental illness, child abuse,
alcoholism, and other behavioral disorders.1  In some locations,
an increased rural population will be exposed to diseases only
infrequently encountered.  For example, in the northwestern
quadrant of New Mexico where extensive coal, uranium, and petro-
leum deposits are found, more than 50 cases of plague have oc-
curred since 1949.2  This area has a population of less than
100,000 yet it has half the plague cases occurring in the U.S.
and the rate of incidence has been continually increasing in
recent decades.  In 1975, more than 15 cases of plague were re-
ported in New Mexico.3  One of the more substantiated hypotheses
is that the encroachment of human population into areas that
were once wilderness is responsible for these outbreaks of plague. "*
Without disease control or public education programs, the popula-
tion growth associated with energy development in areas with
endemic parasitic or contagious diseases is likely to intensify
the incidence of those diseases.

10.8  IMPACTS ON OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH AND SAFETY

10.8.1  Introduction

     Most of the factors associated with energy development that
can affect public health (discussed in Section 10.7)  can also
affect workers in energy facilities.  They include fugitive dust,
gaseous emissions, and radioactive substances as well as the more
toxic liquid and solid waste by-products handled by the workers.
In addition, workers will be subject to the risk of injuries
resulting from falls, fires, contact with machinery,  and being
struck by objects.  The combination of health and safety risks
     Copley International Corporation.  Health Impacts of En-
vironmental Pollution in Energy-Development Impacted Communities,
Executive Summary for the Environmental Protection Agency.  La
Jolla,  Calif.:   Copley International, 1977, pp. 29-30.

     2Weber, Neil S.  "Plague in New Mexico."  Albuquerque, N.
Mex.:   State of New Mexico, Environmental Improvement Agency,
Vector Control Program, January 1977, p. 26.

     3Ibid., p. 27.

     **Ibid. , pp. 8-9.  Plague is transmitted primarily through
contact with fleas that have been associated with wild rodent
populations.

                              893
-------
has been a focus of increasing legislative attention in recent
years.1  The remainder of this section summarizes safety risks and
then discusses these safety hazards in more detail in the develop-
ment of coal, crude oil and natural gas,  geothermal power, oil
shale,- and uranium.

10.8.2  Summary of Safety Risks

     Table 10-32 summarizes accident rate information for facili-
ties considered in this study.  The data are based on industry aver-
ages or, in some cases, projections from related industries, and
should be interpreted with caution.  They are accident-related and
do not include deaths or lost time due to chronic health problems
related to pollutants in the working environment.  Using informa-
tion on the operational work force for each facility, these data
were converted to indicate the frequency of accidents per worker
per year.  As shown in Table 10-33, underground mining is the most
risky occupation as measured by the probability of death due to on-
the-job injuries.  Uranium mill workers have the highest probability
of injury.

     Compared to other industries, as shown in Table 10-34 the risk
of injury in most energy facilities appears to be similar.  The
exception, again, is underground mining,  which has a higher risk
than other industries.

10.8.3  Coal Development

A.  Accidents

     As suggested above, underground mining is the most hazardous
technology in the coal fuel cycle.  The contrast between under-
ground and surface mine safety is distinctive when compared on an
equivalent energy basis, since the more hazardous underground mines
yield less coal per worker per day.  As shown in Table 10-35,
deaths from underground mining are about five times higher per
      1 Specific coal-focused  legislation includes  the Federal Coal
Mine  Health and  Safety Act of  1969, Pub. L. 91-173, 83 Stat. 742;
the Federal Mine Safety and  Health Amendments Act of 1977,  Pub.  L.
95-164,  91 Stat.  1290; and the Black Lung Benefits Act of  1972,
improved  safety  is assigned  to the Mine Enforcement and Safety Ad-
ministration.  The Occupational Safety and Health Act, Pub. L. 91-
596,  84  Stat. 150, seeks to  improve the health and safety  of all
workers  including those in energy facilities, creating the National
Institute for Occupational Safety and Health for  research,  and the
Occupational Safety  and Health Administration for standards setting
and enforcement.

                                894
-------
        TABLE  10-32:
SUMMARY  OF  OCCUPATIONAL  ACCIDENT
DATA FOR TYPICAL  SIZE  FACILITIES
RESOURCE AND FACILITY
Coal
Surface Mining (12 MMtpy)
Underground Mining (12 MMtpy) a
Coal Beneficiation
Gasification' (250 MMsfd)
Liquefaction (30,000 bbl/day)
Powejr Plant (3,000 MW,e)
Oil (100,000 bbl/day)
Gas (250 MMcfd field)
Geo thermal
Oil shale
Underground mine (66,000 tpd
crushed shale)
Surface mine (66,000 tpd
crushed shale)
Modified in situ (41,000 tpd
oil shale) mining
Surface retorting
Modified in situ including
processing
Uranium
Mine
Mill (1,200 Mtpy)
DEATHS PER YEAR

0.60
5.00
0.56
0.45
0.32
0.77
0.45
0.20
NA


0.80

0.20

0.10
0.15

NA

NA
0.046
INJURIES PER YEAR

19
260
11
15
6.2
3.2
43
19
NA


34

10

5
15

NA

NA
14.1
WORKER DAYS LOST
PER YEAR

1,300
14,000
4,900
4,200
1,494
1,200
7,154
3,200
NA


NA

NA

NA
NA

NA

NA
873
MMtpy = million tons per year
MMsfd = million standard feet per day
bbl/day = barrels per day
MWe = megawatts-electric
                MMcfd = million cubic feet per day
                NA = not available
                tpd = tons per day
                Mtpy = metric tons per year
Sources:  White, Irvin L.,  et al.
Systems Report.  Washington, D.C.:
Chapter3; and Hittman Associates,
     Energy From the West:   Energy Resource Development
      U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,  forthcoming,
     Inc.  Environmental Impacts, Efficiency and  Cost of Energy
Supplied  by Emerging Technologies, Draft Report on Tasks 7 and 8,  HIT-582.
Hittman Associates, May 1974.
                                            Columbia, Md.:
 Data on coal mining from Bliss, C., et al.   Accidents and Unscheduled Events Associated
with Non-Muclear Energy Resources and Technology.  Washington,  D.C.:  U.S., Environmental
Protection Agency, 1977.
                                        895
-------
      TABLE 10-33:  SAFETY RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY
                    FACILITIES EXPRESSED PER INDIVIDUAL
                 FACILITY
          Coal
            Surface mining
            (12 MMtpy)

            Underground mining
            (12 MMtpy)

            Gasification
            (250 MMsfd)

            Liquefaction
            (30,000 gpd)

            Power plant
            (3,000 MW)

          Oil  (100,000 bbl/day)

          Gas  (250 MMcfd field)

          Oil Shale
            Underground mine
            (66,000 tpd
            crushed shale)

            Surface retorting

          Uranium
            Mill
            (1,200 Mtpy)
                                 FREQUENCY PER WORKER
                                     PEP YEAR3 OF:
 DEATH
 0.0011


 0.0024


 0.0008


 0.0004


 0.0017

 0.0002

 0.0003
 0.0014

 0.0004



 0.0003
INJURY
 0.034


 0.090


 0.002


 0.007


 0.007

 0.021

 0.024
 0.062

 0.045



 0.104
MMtpy = million tons per year
MMsfd = million -standard feet
        per day
gpd = gallons per day
MW = megawatt
bbl/day = barrels per day
MMcfd = million cubic feet
        per day
tpd = tons per day
Mtpy - metric tons per year
aData from Table 10-32 divided by operational work  force  for
each facility  (given in Chapters 4-9 and summarized in  Chapter 3)
                              896
-------
        TABLE 10-34:  INJURY RATES IN SELECTED
                      INDUSTRIES, 1973
INDUSTRY
Automobile
Chemical
Petroleum
Shipbuilding
Nonferrous metals and products
Surface mining, all types^
Construction
Railroad equipment
Quarry^
Underground mining, except coalb
Underground coal miningb
All industries0
FREQUENCY OF
INJURY PER WORKER3
PER YEAR
.0032
.0085
.0135
.0142
.0186
.0195
.0272
.0285
.0353
.0505
.0709
.0211
Source: Bliss, C., et al. Accidents and Unscheduled
Events Associated with Non-Nuclear Energy Resources an<
Technology. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental
Protection Agency, 1977.

aThese values were calculated from the above source.
Injury rates in the source were given as injuries per
million man hours.  We assumed that one million man
hours was equivalent to 500 man years (i.e., an average
worker works 2,000 hours per year).

bBased on data for 1972.

°Rates not fully comparable from year to year due to
reporting inconsistencies.
                           897
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than for surface mining, injuries are about six times higher, and
work days lost are about nine times higher.  The frequency of
injuries in underground coal mines is also higher than for under-
ground mining of other materials.1

     Underground mine accidents have become much less frequent
since the passage of the Mine Health and Safety Act of 1969.
However, mine safety varies with the geological characteristics
of the site and the specific technology being used.  For example,
in 1975 not a single lost-time accident at the working face oc-
curred in all shortwall mining.2  Increased coal production,
however, is likely to require the use of inexperienced miners
and accident rates are likely to increase unless effective train-
ing programs are instituted for new miners (Mining Enforcement
and Safety Administration  [MESA] now requires miners to be
trained).3

     As Table 10-35 indicates, coal processing  (e.g., cleaning,
sizing, and drying operations) and coal conversion to electric
power are considerably less hazardous than mining and coal trans-
port.  The accident potential of synthetic fuels production from
coal is not known.  However, since most liquefaction and gasifica-
tion processes operate at high temperature and pressure, accidents
involving pressure vessel rupture may be expected.4

     Transmission and distribution accidents involve downed power
lines and accidents involved in construction, operation, and
repair.  A National Safety Council study in 1972 showed that the
accident frequency rate for the electric utility industry was less
than the average for all reporting industries with 6.42 injuries
     1 The frequency of injuries in underground coal mines is more
than three times the average for selected industries and about one
and a half times the average for underground mining of other mate-
rials.   The severity of underground coal mining injuries was almost
eight times the all-industry average and about 25 percent higher
than noncoal underground mining.  Bliss, C., et a1.  Accidents
and Unscheduled Events Associated with Non-Nuclear Energy Resources
and Technology.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection
Agency, 1977, p. 30.

     2Kash, Don E., et al.  The Impacts of Accelerated Coal Utili-
zation, Draft Report, Contract No. OTA-C-182.  Norman, Okla.:
University of Oklahoma, Science and Public Policy Program, 1977,
pp. 8-19.

     3 Ibid.

     ''Bliss et al.  Accidents and Unscheduled Events, p. 30.

                              899
-------
million worker-hours exposure.   However,  the severity rate was
higher with 1,003 total days charged for injuries per million
worker-hours exposure compared to 655 per million worker-hours
exposure for all reporting industries for the period 1970-1972.l

B.  Respiratory Disease

     Respiratory illness caused from working in underground coal
mines is perhaps the best known occupational health impact.
"Black lung disease" (pneumoconiosis),  chronic bronchitis, emphy-
sema, and airways obstruction currently affect more than one-
third of the underground coal miners in the U.S.2  The death rate
from respiratory disease among workers  in deep mines has been
five times the heavy industrial average.3  In 1973 the federal
government paid about $1 billion to coal miners and their depen-
dents as compensation for black lung disease, and the total com-
pensation level may rise to $8 billion  by 1980. 4  It is expected
that under MESA regulation, future mining operations will cause
less black lung disease among new employees, but new cases are
almost certain to occur.

C.  Cancer

     Workers in coal mines and in some  conversion facilities are
subject to increased incidence of cancer.  The cancer hazard due
to the combustion products of coal have been observed in related
industries.  For example, cancer death  rates over 300 times
higher than the general population have been reported for workers
     1 Bliss, C., et al.  Accidents and Unscheduled Events Asso-
ciated with Non-Nuclear Energy Resources and Technology.  Washing-
ton, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977, p. 30.

     2U.S., Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, National
Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.  Occuaptional Safety
and Health Implications of Increased Coal Utilization, Draft.
Rockville, Md.:  National Institute for Occupational Safety and
Health, 1977, lines 88-92.

     3U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management,
et al.   Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed
Development of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder River Coal
Basin of Wyoming, 6 vols.  Cheyenne, Wyo.:  Bureau of Land Manage-
ment, 1974.

     4Edwards, P.E.  The Washington Post, May 29, 1973, as cited
in National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, Com-
mission on Natural Resources, Committee on Mineral Resources and
the Environment.  Mineral Resources and the Environment.  Washing-
ton, D.C.:  National Academy of Sciences, 1975, p. 213.

                               900
-------
on the top of coke ovens.1  Experience in the ]950's with a coal
liquefaction plant operated by Union Carbide in Institute, West
Virginia showed that, despite efforts to educate workers to the
hazards of unnecessary contact with oils and instruction in decon-
tamination practices, skin cancer during 7 years of operation
occurred at 16-37 times the rate normally reported.2  Air samples
showed benzo(a)pyrene concentrations (see Section 10.7)  as high
as 18.70 micrograms per 100 cubic meters on plant premises.  This
is about 30 times higher than an urban environment with heavy
automobile traffic.3  In Japan, Britain, and Sweden, excess can-
cers of various organs have been noted in workers producing gas
from coal in various processes.4

     These observations suggest but do not causally establish
increased cancer risks associated with coal-conversion processes,
and it is not possible to generalize from these cases to the fa-
cilities planned for the western U.S. because both the specific
processes and their scale of operation differ.  In addition,
recent federal requirements for maintaining worker safety have
changed working conditions.

     The raw materials for coal conversion generally contain very
small quantities of cancer-causing substances.  Further, the pro-
cesses of gasification and liquefaction result in the formation
of complex organic molecules, some of which may cause cancer.
Synthetic gas prior to upgrading to pipeline quality contains
     1 Lloyd, J.W.  "Long-Term Mortality Study of Steelworkers:
V. Respiratory Cancer in Coal Plant Workers."  Journal of Occu-
pational Medicine, Vol. 13 (February 1971), pp. 53-68.

     2Sexton, R.J.  "The Hazards to Health in the Hydrogenation
of Coal:  I.  An Introductory Statement on General Information
Process Description, and a Definition of the Problem,"  Archives
of Environmental Health, Vol. 1 (September 1960), pp. 181-86; and
Sexton, R.J.  "The Hazards to Health in the Hydrogenation of Coal:
IV.  The Control Program and the Clinical Effects."  Archives of
Environmental Health, Vol. 1 (September 1960), pp. 208-31.

     3Ketcham, N.H., and B.S. Norton.  "The Hazards to Health in
the Hydrogenation of Coal:  III.  The Industrial Hygiene Studies."
Archives of Environmental Health,  Vol. 1 (September 1960) , pp.
194-207.

     4Kauai, M., et al.  "Epidemiologic Study of Occupational Lung
Cancer."  Archives of Environmental Health, Vol. 14  (1967), pp.
859-64; and Doll, R. , et al~!   "Mortality of Gas Workers with
Special Reference to Cancers of the Lung and Bladder, Chronic
Bronchitis, and Pneumoconiosis."  British Journal of Industrial
Medicine, Vol. 22 (January 1965),  pp^i 1-12"!

                               901
-------
more hazardous substances than the final product.1   Therefore,
the greatest plant hazards will be from fugitive losses of raw
synthetic gas and from the cleanup procedures (sulfur recovery,
tar separation, etc.)  designed to remove harmful substances.  To
a lesser extent, fugitive emissions from storage and blending of
the final product may constitute a hazard.2  Workers stationed
in these areas would receive regular exposure to fugitive emissions
in amounts largely determined by standards of controls and clean-
liness.

     Solid wastes from coal conversion include an ash discharged
into a settling pond as a wet-solid.  If process wastewaters are
used to slurry the ash, workers may be in contact with a number
of toxic compounds.  The solid wastes potentially most hazardous
are the chars and tars produced as process residues.  In many
instances, these could be burned in utility boilers.  However,
even then, care in preventing contact with these materials when
transferred from reactor to boiler would be required.

D.  Stress Effects

     The rapid development and use of coal is likely to increase
overtime hours worked, employee fatigue, and hence accident rates.3
Moreover, these factors can contribute to physical and mental
health problems related to job stress and strain, such as heart
disorders and neuroses.  The impact may be especially serious on
coal miners, who have been reported by National Institute of
Occupation Safety and Health (NIOSH) to have unusally high levels
of psychological distress and a high incidence of morbidity and
mortality from stress-related disorders. "*
     1Of the major gasification processes, the highest risk of
occupationally related cancer is thought to be associated with
high-pressure, fixed-bed processes.  Freudenthal, R.I., G.A. Lutz,
and R.I. Mitchell.  Carcinogenic Potential of Coal and Coal Con-
version Products, Battelle Energy Program Report.  Columbus, Ohio:
Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus Laboratories, 1975.

     2Cavanaugh, E.G., et al.  Potentially Hazardous Emissions
from the Extraction and Processing of Coal and Oil, EPA-650/
2-76-038.  Austin, Tex.:  Radian Corporation, 1975.

     3U.S., Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, National
Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.  Occupational Safety
and Health Implications of Increased Coal Utilization, Draft.
Rockville, Md.:  National Institute for Occupational Safety and
Health, 1977, lines 830-32.

     ''Ibid. , lines 820-29.

                               902
-------
10.8.4  Crude Oil and Natural Gas Development

     Although less severe than in coal development, occupational
accidents in the crude oil resource system are frequent and costly
in terms of numbers of injuries, work days lost, and damage to
equipment.1  Major accidents involve spillage, blowouts, fire,
explosion, and entanglement in machinery.  These accidents occur
at each stage in the energy cycle.  Hazardous explosive conditions
are associated with well blowouts, pipeline ruptures and leaks,
other transportation accidents, and storage tank accidents.2
Major losses of life and property from such events occur in re-
fineries and tank farms.3

     In the natural gas system, blowouts during drilling of ex-
ploratory and production wells, release of sulfur compounds during
processing, and failures of pipelines account for the largest
number of accidents.1*  Sudden uncontrolled release of natural gas
may result in explosions and fires causing damage to equipment and
loss of life or injury to persons in the vicinity.  In addition,
the general public is exposed to pipeline hazards because they
traverse populated residential and commercial areas.5

     Pipeline distribution accounts for the largest number of
injuries and workdays lost in the natural gas system:  about 0.0138
iniuries/1012 Btu's of gas produced and 0.324 worker days lost/
10   Btu's, respectively.6  Most pipeline failures can be attrib-
uted to corrosion and damage by outside forces.  Other possible
sources of natural gas accidents are the failure of aboveground
storage tanks.

     Higher rates of cancers of the lung, nasal cavities, and
sinus have been observed in counties where petroleum industries
are most heavily concentrated,7 including four counties in


     1 Bliss, C., et al.  Accidents and Unscheduled Events Associ-
ated with Non-Nuclear Energy Resources and Technology, Washington,
D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, February 1977, p. 30.

     2 Ibid.

     3Ibid., p. 31

     "Ibid.

     5 Ibid.

     6 Ibid.

     7Mortality is 1.15 to 1.48 as great as expected.  Plot,
William J., et al.  "Cancer Mortality in U.S. Counties with Petro-
leum Industries."  Science, Vol. 198  (October 7, 1977), pp. 51-53.

                               903
-------
Wyoming.1  But this incidence is thought to be related to refining
or petrochemical industries, rather than to the extraction and
transportation phases included in this technology assessment.
Table 10-36 summarizes the results of a study on safety risks for
oil and gas field development workers.2  On an equivalent energy
basis, the risk of death to workers in oil and gas fields is
about the same, risk of injury is higher in oil fields than in
gas fields and risk of work days lost is higher in gas fields than
in oil fields.

10.8.5  Geothermal Resource Development

     Only limited working experience is available in geothermal
resources development.  Accidents reported include transportation
accidents associated with exploration, blowouts, leaks, explosions
during extraction, and mechanical accidents associated with the
electric power generation step.   The most severe anticipated
accident would be a well blowout releasing hot fluids and steam
to the surface.3  A blowout can cause injuries as well as damage
to equipment.  Early development at both the Cerro Prieto field
in Mexico and at the Geysers in California has resulted in blow-
outs.1*  If natural gas is present, a fire could also result.5
A less severe accident would be a pipeline leak or rupture caused
by an earthquake, mechanical failure, human error, or pressure
buildup due to mineral deposition.6  Geothermal resource develop-
ment can also cause subsidence resulting in damage to buildings
and equipment.  A summary of accident types associated with geo-
thermal resource development is given in Table 10-37.

     Health hazards in geothermal development may also result from
exposure to hydrogen sulfide and ammonia.  Depending on the type
of accident or condition, these gases may be released to the atmo-
sphere in toxic concentrations along with certain trace gases


     1"Using Cancer's Rates to Track Its Cause."  Business Week,
November 14, 1977, p. 69.  Counties included:  Carbon, Laramie,
Natrona and Park.

     2Battelle Columbus and Pacific Northwest Laboratories.
Environmental Considerations in Future Energy Growth.  Columbus,
Ohio:  Battelle Columbus Laboratories, 1973.

     3Bliss, C., et al.  Accidents and Unscheduled Events Associa-
ted with Non-Nuclear Energy Resources and Technology.  Washington,
D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977, p. 32.

     ulbid., p. 193.

     5Ibid., p. 33.

     6Ibid.

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such as mercury which are toxic at lower concentrations.1  Actual
worker exposure has not been determined.

     Many geothermal waters contain concentrations of radium above
drinking water standards.2  These waters also contain radon daugh-
ters.  According to one study, radiation risk from occupational ex-
posures is not likely if water streams are contained and adequate
ventilation exists.  However, possible impacts depend on the size
of development and type of technology used.3

10.8.6  Oil Shale Development

     Occupational exposure to health and safety risks in oil shale
development occur both in the mining and conversion phases.  Safety
hazards are summarized in Table 10-38.  These data are based on
projections from related industrial activities, not on actual ex-
perience with oil shale development.  Thus, they must be interpreted
cautiously.

     As indicated in Table 10-38, conventional oil shale development
(mining followed by surface retort) exposes more workers to the haz-
ards of a mine environment and process phases, which produce more
HC, than does modified in situ development.  The data in Table 10-38
also indicate that mining oil shale will be less hazardous than
mining coal.1*  Roof collapse is less likely for an equivalent sized
room because of the hardness of the shale.  However, larger rooms
are likely to be used in oil shale mining.  Explosions in the mine
due to buildup of flammable gases probably will not occur, although
explosive mixtures of dust may form.5  Explosions and fires may
also occur in shale processing.  The incidence of severe accidents
is likely to be similar to that observed for other processes in-
volving use of hydrogen under high pressure.6
     Resource Planning Associates, Inc.  Western Energy Resources
and the Environment;  Geothermal Energy.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Energy, Minerals, and
Industry, 1977, pp. 67-68.

     2O'Connell, M.F., and R.F. Kartmann.  Radioactivity Associated
with Geothermal Waters in the Western United States.  Las Vegas,
Nev.:   U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, n.d., p. 21.

     3 Ibid., p. 22.

     ''Bliss, C. , et al.  Accidents and Unscheduled Events Associa-
ted with Non-Nuclear Energy Resources and Technology.  Washington,
D.C.:   U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, February 1977, p. 33.

     5 Ibid.

     6 Ibid.

                                907
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-------
     Health hazards in underground mines also include exposure
to shale dust that contains silica, inorganic salts, toxic metals,
and organics.  Free silica can cause silicosis.1  Some studies
indicate that shale consists of 10 percent silica although other
analyses found no free silica in respirable size ranges.

     Oil shale itself is not generally thought to be cancer pro-
ducing; the organic portion of the shale rock is mainly low-
molecular-weight organic material with little aromatic HC content.
However, retorting produces such HC as PAH's suspected of produc-
ing cancer.  Tests on Colorado oil shale gave a distillate con-
taining 2 percent PAH's.3  Upgrading shale oil reduces its car-
cinogenicity by breaking down these components.  However, the
residues may contain relatively high concentrations of PAH's."

     British workers regularly exposed to raw shale oil and to
lubricating oil made from shale have showed a high incidence of
scrotal and skin cancer.5  Skin cancers have also been found in
workers exposed to shale-derived tars, light oil, waxes, and
cutting oils.6  However, in contrast with the British experience,
oil shale industries in Estonia, Brazil, and Sweden have not re-
ported increased incidences of cancer among workers.  No skin can-
cers were detected in the small-scale Bureau of Mines shale oil
demonstration plant near Rifle, Colorado although there was a
high incidence of benign skin lesions.
     1 White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West;  Energy Re-
source Development Systems Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming, Chapter 4.

     2Ashland Oil, Inc.; Shell Oil Col. Operator.  Oil Shale Tract
C-b:  Detailed Development Plan and Related Materials, prepared
for submittal to the Area Oil Shale Supervisor pursuant to Lease
C-20341 issued under the Federal Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Pro-
gram, February 1976, Vol. 1, p. V-77.

     3Not all PAH's are carcinogens, but most organic carcinogens
found in shale oil are PAH's.

     ''Schmidt-Collerus,  Josef J.  Disposal and Environmental Ef-
fects of Carbonaceous Solid Wastes from Commercial Oil Shale
Operations.   Denver, Colo.:   University of Denver, Research In-
stitute, 1974.

     5Commoner, B.  "From Percival Pott to Henry Kissinger."
Hospital Practice, Vol.   (1975), pp. 138-41.

     6Auld,  S.J.M.  "Environmental Cancer and Petroleum."  Journal
of the Institute of Petroleum, Vol. 36 (April 1950), pp. 235-53.


                               909
-------
     Some carcinogens will be emitted in the stack gas from the
boilers and retort;!   these will be dispersed into the atmosphere
around the plant.  While a continuing pattern of exposure would
occur in areas affected by poor dispersion, there is no direct
evidence to suggest that the concentration resulting would con-
stitute a significant health hazard.

     Spent shale disposal could also expose populations to cancer-
causing chemicals.  In Estonian spent shale dumps, small unsatu-
rated HC molecules (with less than 25 carbon atoms), some of which
could be carcinogenic, are believed to be formed.2  Carbonaceous
spent shale produced by retorting Colorado oil shale has been
shown to contain carcinogens.3  Workers compacting the spent
shale or maintaining the containment dikes, could be exposed to
these substances regularly by inhalation.

     Process waters and various aqueous plant wastes will be con-
taminated with PAH's and other HC.   These wastes may be used to
slurry or "wet down"  the spent shale, arid workers involved may be
exposed to the carcinogens through contact or inhalation.

10.8.7  Uranium Development

     Workers are exposed to potentially hazardous conditions in
both uranium mines and mills.  Underground metals mining is safer
than underground coal mining, but exposure to radioactive materials
is greater.  Milling requires exposure to several risks, including
exposure to radiation.

A.  Mining

     The two principle hazards from uranium mining are accidents
within the mine and exposure to disease producing residuals.
Accident data are not avilable for uranium mines apart from other
underground metal mines.  These industry data indicate that hard

     1 These include the polynuclear aromatic carcinogens 7,12-
dimethylbenz(a)anthracene, dibonz(a,j)anthracene, 3-methyIchoi-
anthrene, benz(c)phenanthrene, benzpyrenes, benzanthracenes,
chrysene, and carbazoles, among others.  Barrett, R.E., et al.
Assessment of Industrial Boiler Toxic and Hazardous Emissions
Control Needs, Final Report, Cotract No. 68-02-1232, Task 8.
Columbus, Ohio:  Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus Laboratories,
1974

     2Schmidt-Collerus, Josef J.  Disposal and Environmental
Effects of Carbonaceous Solid Wastes from Commercial Oil Shale
Operations.  Denver, Colo.:  University of Denver, Research In-
stitute, 1974.

     3 Ibid.

                               910
-------
rock mining is a hazardous activity, although less hazardous than
coal mining (see Table 10-34).   Because conditions vary signifi-
cantly among mines, average data should be interpreted with cau-
tion for assessing the risk at specific locations.  Like coal,
surface uranium mining is less hazardous than underground mining.

     The incidence of lung cancer in uranium miners has been of
special congern, and during the last 10 years exposure levels
have been reduced in an attempt to lower the incidence of disease.
In a study of 4,180 uranium miners from 1950 to 1973, approximately
180 excess respiratory malignancies have been reported (1 out of
every 23 miners).1  Among this group, some 600 to 1,000 may even-
tually die prematurely due to lung cancer.2  Other studies indi-
cate that one out of every six of these miners may die of lung
cancer within 10 years following 1976.3  Of 100 Navajo miners who
worked on one Southwest mine, 18 have died of lung cancer and
radiation induced illnesses.4  Although average doses have been
reduced, some scientists believe that present standards expose
miners to levels that would create lung cancer at double the av-
erage rate of the population.5

B.  Milling

     The most likely types of accidents associated with uranium
mill operations are inadvertent discharges of tailings to nearby
rivers or streams or a major fire in a solvent extraction circuit.6
Tailings dams could fail because of flooding, equipment failure,
     ^churgin, Arell A., and Thomas C. Hollocher.  "Radiation-
Induced Lung Cancers Among Uranium Miners," in Union of Concerned
Scientists, ed.  The Nuclear Fuel Cycle;  A Survey of the Public
Health, Environmental, and National Security Effects of Nuclear
Power, rev. ed.  Cambridge, Mass.:  MIT Press, 1975, p. 9.

     2Ibid.

     3Nafziger, Rich.  Indian Uranium:  Profits and Perils, AIO
Red Paper.  Albuquerque, N. Mex.:  Americans for Indian Opportunity,
1976.

     ''Ibid., as cited in Schurgin and Hollocher.  "Radiation-
Induced Lung Cancers."

     5Schurgin and Hollocher.  "Radiation-Induced Lung Cancers,"
p. 30.

     6U.S., Atomic Energy Commission, Directorate of Licensing,
Fuels and Materials.  Environmental Survey of the Uranium Fuel
Cycle, WASH-1248.  Washington, D.C.:  Atomic Energy Commission,
1972, p. B-22.

                                911
-------
or operating errors such as inattention,1  One reported incident
involved the release of about 2,000 gallons of tailings liquid
due to a break in a secondary tailings dike; the break was caused
by unusually high runoff from melting snow.2

     In the solvent extraction process of a mill,3 several thou-
sand gallons of solvent (mostly kerosene),  containing as much as
several thousand pounds of natural uranium, are present and used
in the refining process.  This solvent represents a potential for
a serious fire and release of uranium.  Explosions and fires with
a large volume of intense smoke, such as those characteristic of
petroleum fires, are possible.  Both fires  and tailings releases
have occurred in a number of uranium mills.  However, two large
fires in two separate mills involving solvent extraction circuits,
in which 2 to 3 thousand pounds of uranium  were present in the
circuits at the time, caused no appreciable release of uranium.4
Additional incidents occur in the uranium mill's drying and
packaging area.  Fires have been caused by  the improper use of an
open flame or welding.5  Other accidents include overflows from
process tanks, failure of process lines, or leaks and.spills of
sulfuric acid or kerosene.6  Health risk from exposure to radia-
tion in the vicinity of uranium mills is discussed in Section 10.7

     A five year study of the safety of nuclear facilities pro-
vides a summary of the occupational health  hazards from uranium
mills.  For a 1,200 ton per day uranium mill, the  following re-
sults were reported per year:  0.046 deaths, 17.1 injuries, and
     1U.S., Atomic Energy Commission, Directorate of Licensing,
Fuels and Materials.  Environmental Survey of the Uranium Fuel
Cycle, WASH-1248.  Washington, D.C.:  Atomic Energy Commission,
1972, p. B-22.

     2Ibid.,  p. B-23.

     3For a detailed description of a uranium mill, see White,
Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West:  Energy Resource Develop-
ment Systems Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Pro-
tection Agency, forthcoming.

     4AEC.  Uranium Fuel Cycle.  Accident data are not availa-
ble.

     5 Ibid.

     blbid.,  p. B-27.

                               912
-------
73 man days lost.1   With changes in the design of facilities and
possible improvements in worker safety programs, these statistics
are likely to change.

10.8.7  Summary of Occupational Health and Safety

     Of the energy technologies considered in this study, under-
ground mining of coal presents the greatest occupational safety
risks--significantly more risky than underground mining of other
ores.  When considered on the basis of equivalent amounts of coal
produced, underground coal mining compared with surface coal min-
ing results in at least five times more deaths, injuries, and work
days lost.  However, recent legislation is expected to lower the
occupational safety risks associated with underground coal mining.
The most severe accidents in oil, gas, and geothermal fields are
due to blowouts and leaks which can cause explosions.

     The best known and best documented occupational health risks
are respiratory disorders (black lung disease) in underground coal
miners and lung cancer in underground uranium miners.  Black lung
disease affects more than one-third of underground coal miners and
lung cancer (from radiation exposure) is expected in one out of
every six uranium miners within 10 years after prolonged exposure.
Both of these occupational health risks are expected to decline
with new, tighter standards.

     Other occupational health risks are less certain; some are
cancer related.  Synthetic fuels production produces known carcino-
gens and concentrates them as chars and tars in process residues.
Carcinogens are present in raw shale oil and raw synthesis gas.
Workers will be exposed to these and can assimilate them through
inhalation or skin contact.   Exposure levels are highly uncertain
and safe exposure levels have not been determined.

     Consistent data useful for comparisons among technologies are
generally not available.  Some data vary on an annual basis due to
major accidents.  Data are also difficult to interpret on a risk
per individual or per Btu basis.  A major problem that emerges has
been obtaining comparable data on death and accident risks useful
for alerting policymakers to critical phases in western energy fuel
cycles.
     :U.S., Atomic Energy Commission.  The Safety of Nuclear Power
Reactors (Light Water-Cooled) and Related Facilities, Final Draft,
WASH-1250.   Springfield, Va.:  National Technical Information
Service, 1973.

                                913
-------
                           CHAPTER 11

                        REGIONAL IMPACTS

11.1  INTRODUCTION

      This chapter reports the results of analyses of the aggregate
impacts of western energy development.  That is, whereas Chapters
4 through 9 discussed the impacts of hypothetical developments
at six specific sites and Chapter 10 discussed impacts that are
likely in the area surrounding a particular energy facility, this
chapter assesses the effects of energy development on the entire
eight-state study area.  Impact categories include regional air
impacts, water impacts on river basins, social and economic im-
pacts on states or the entire region, ecological impacts of a
regional nature, and impacts of energy transportation systems.
The chapter begins with a discussion of the assumptions on the
extent of energy development that provides a basis for the impact
analyses.

11.1.1  Location of Development

      Regional impacts result from the overall levels and rates
of development likely for the entire eight-state region.  Impacts
also depend upon the distribution of the different energy re-
sources in the region.  Coal is found in all eight states as
shown in Figure 11-1.  The largest concentrations are found in
the Northern Great Plains.  Oil shale deposits are concentrated
in the Green River Formation in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming.
These are shown in Figure 11-2.  The largest deposits of uranium
are found in New Mexico and Wyoming, although some uranium may
be found in each of the eight states, as shown in Figure 11-3.
Crude oil and natural gas reserves are largest in New Mexico and
Wyoming, although both of these resources are also found in
Colorado, Utah, and North and South Dakota.  Areas of geothermal
resources are still being discovered, but resources have been
primarily identified in the western half of the region.  High
temperature geothermal resource areas are shown in Figure 11-4.
These general patterns of resource distribution, and more detailed
patterns described in subsequent sections provide a mechanism for
locating impacts within the region.
                               914
-------
                                           Coal
FIGURE 11-1:  GENERAL  DISTRIBUTION OF COAL RESOURCES
              IN EIGHT WESTERN STATES
                                          Oil Shale
FIGURE 11-2: GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF OIL SHALE
             RESOURCES  IN  EIGHT WESTERN STATES
                         915
-------
                                             Uranium
FIGURE 11-3:
GENERAL DISTRIBUTION  OF URANIUM
RESOURCES IN EIGHT 'WESTERN STATES
                                            Geothermal
FIGURE 11-4:   GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF GEOTHERMAL
               RESOURCES IN EIGHT WESTERN STATES
                          916
-------
11.1.2  Levels of Development

      Stanford Research Institute's (SRI) interfuel competition
model was used to construct two energy resource development sce-
narios for the eight states corresponding to two projections of
national energy demands between the present and 2000.l  These pro-
jections of energy supply from the West are used in this report
as a vehicle for assessing impacts.  A representative range of
energy supplies provides the basis for anticipating the potential
extent and magnitude of impacts.  Although based on informed inter-
fuel competition modeling, the levels of energy production in
these scenarios should not be interpreted as predictions of what
is likely to occur.

      The SRI model considers various combinations of energy
resources that could supply energy demands at a particular loca-
tion at a particular time.  Estimates are made of the costs of
delivered energy in different fuel forms from various sources,
and an economic analysis is used to determine the quantity pro-
vided by each source.  For example, demand for distillate fuel
oil in Chicago could be supplied from:  crude oil produced in
Wyoming and piped to Chicago for refining; oil shale mined,
retorted, and upgraded to synthetic crude oil in Colorado, then
piped to Chicago for refining; or coal mined and converted to
synthetic crude oil in Colorado, then piped to Chicago for re-
fining.  Each of these "paths" as well as others, must be analyzed
as part of the entire U.S. energy system to determine the fraction
of demand to be met by each resource at each location.

      The two demand levels assumed to create the two supply
scenarios were SRI's Nominal and Low Demand cases.  The Nominal
case assumed a demand 30 percent higher than the Ford Foundation
Technical Fix case.2  (The Ford Foundation's Technical Fix case
was an attempt to anticipate the results of a variety of voluntary
and mandatory energy conservation measures.)   The Nominal Demand
case scenario results in an energy supply of 156.9 quads (Q)  and
an end use demand of 79.98 Q for the year 2000.  The Low Demand
case corresponds to the Ford Foundation's Technical Fix Scenario.
It results in an annual growth rate of approximately 2.1 percent,
      !Cazalet, Edward, et al.   A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study:  Economics, Final Report, 2 vols.  Menlo Park, Calif.:
Stanford Research Institute, 1976.

      2 Ford Foundation, Energy Policy Project.  A Time to Choose:
America's Energy Future.  Cambridge, Mass.:  Ballinger, 1974.

                               917
-------
with an energy supply of 129.5 Q and an end use demand of 67.97 Q
for the year 2000.

      The SRI model was used at the time the impact scenarios
were being formulated (1975) because the SRI model was the most
readily available and well documented,  it projected energy demands
to the year 2000, it analyzed multiple  demand scenarios, and it
disaggregated geographically to the area of interest in this study.
The model did, however, have limitations which included the fol-
lowing :

      • The contribution predicted from oil shale grows very
        rapidly in the 1990-2000 decade (from five to forty-two
        100,000 barrels per day (bbl/day)  plants in the Nominal
        case) although it now seems unlikely that development at
        that rate could be accomplished.

      • Oil shale was considered to be  produced solely from sur-
        face mines, and in situ oil shale retorting was not con-
        sidered.

      • Contributions from geothermal resources were not included.

      • Western coal was assumed to be  of one composition and
        heating value throughout the West.   Actually, wide varia-
        tions exist, such as between North Dakota lignite and
        Kaiparowits bituminous.

      • Only limited account was taken  of the availability of equip-
        ment and personnel to accomplish the development indicated.
        As noted later in this chapter, both could tend to con-
        strain developments to levels below those indicated.

      • Installation of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) control
        equipment  (stack gas scrubbers) was not considered on
        electrical power generating plants using western coal,
        and all coal was considered to  be produced from surface
        mines .

These assumptions and omissions constrain the utility of the model,
and modifications discussed below will  attempt to deal with them.

      The oil shale levels of development forecast appear too
high because the commercial oil shale developments that were
expected in the mid-1970 's have failed  to materialize.  The only
                Edward, et al.  A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study;  Economics, Final Report, 2 vols.  Menlo Park, Calif. :
Stanford Research Institute, 1976.  Losses within the system
account for the difference between the supply and end use demand
numbers .

                               918
-------
oil shale development plan that has been approved by the Secretary
of the Interior is Occidental and Ashland's in situ development
of Colorado Tract B.  This development is predicted to produce
57,000 bbl/day of shale oil by 1983.  Development plans for"
Colorado Tract A call for j.n situ retorting, and a federally spon-
sored 100,000 bbl/day surface retort facility may be built, but
the construction times for these facilities make it unlikely that
the levels of development will exceed the following:

      1990—2 levels:  one and five 100,000 bbl/day facilities

      2000—2 levels:  10 and 25 100,000 bbl/day facilities

Thus, the SRI scenarios are modified to include these levels of
oil shale development.

      Levels of geothermal development are likely to remain small
in comparison to total electric power production until the year
2000.  Assuming a national production level of geothermal-based
electric power of between 2,500 and 5,000 megawatts-electric (MWe)
in 1985 and between 7,000 and 50,000 MWe in 2000, l it seems reason-
able to forecast the development of 100 to 200 MWe by 1985 and 700
to 5,000 by 2000 in the eight-state study area.  The 100 to 200
MWe are based on planned developments in the Jemez Mountains in
New Mexico and in the vicinity of Roosevelt, Utah.  The 700 to
5,000 MWe are 10 percent of the level of national production es-
timated for 2000.  This is approximately the percentage of U.S.
geothermal resources located in the eight-state area.  Thus, the
SRI scenarios are adjusted for these levels of geothermal develop-
ment in the eight-state study area.

      Dealing with the assumptions concerning the coal character-
istics and levels of emission controls made in the SRI model
requires consideration of recent changes in emission control
       :These are consensus estimates from Loveland, Walter D.,
Bernard I. Spinrad, and, C.H. Wang, eds.  Magnitude and Deploy-
ment Schedule of Energy Resources; Proceedings of a Conference
Held on July 21-23, 1975, in Portland, Oregon, under the
Sponsorship of the Energy Research and Development Administra-
tion, Pacific Northwest Regional Commission, and Oregon State
University Office of Energy Research and Development!Corvallis,
Oreg.:  Oregon State University, 1975; and U.S., Energy Research
and Development Administration, Division of Geothermal Energy.
Definition Report;  Geothermal Energy Research, Development and
Demonstration Program.  Springfield, Va. :  National Technical
Information Service, 1975.  These estimates do not include direct
thermal uses such as space heating and crop drying.

                                919
-------
regulations as a result of the Clean Air  Act (CAA)  Amendments
of 1977.  The Low Demand and Nominal cases in the SRI model call,
respectively, for 970 million and 1,150 million tons of coal to
be produced nationally in 1985.   Without,  a change in current
policies, the National Energy Plan1  would require production of
approximately 1,080 million tons of  coal  annually in 1985.   How-
ever, the plan proposes policy changes which would have the net
effect of boosting national coal production in 1985 to about
1,280 million tons per year (MMtpy).

      The inclusion in the 1977 CAA  Amendments of a "best avail-
able control technology" (BACT)  requirement for new, large coal
burning facilities complicates matters further because the re-
quirement can be expected to shift some coal production away
from the West after 1985.  The requirement that all coal-fired
power plants be equipped with scrubbers would largely eliminate
the advantage of using low sulfur western coal in most regions
of the country.  Demand through 1985 is not likely to be signifi-
cantly affected because of existing  long-term contracts but
demand for western coal after 1985 would  be strongly affected.
One study performed at Argonne National Laboratory estimated
the effect that alternative BACT definitions will have on regional
coal markets.2  In that study all alternative BACT scenarios are
projected to have substantial effects on  western coal production;
especially affected were Northern Great Plains coal shipments
to the middle regions of the nation.   In  1990 the production of
Northern Great Plains coal ranged from 202 to 239 MMtpy for
alternative BACT definitions compared to  a base case (which
assumed a continuation of New Source Performance Standards [NSPS])
production of 388 MMtpy.  These compare with 1976 production
levels of 46 million tons.  Production of "other western" coal
was largely unaffected by BACT according  to the Argonne study.
On the basis of these results, it appears that even SRI's Low
Demand case will be too high for western  coal production after
1985 if BACT is implemented.  The Nominal case probably repre-
sents a reasonable upper bound on development if less stringent
sulfur controls are imposed and if the Administration's proposal
requiring utilities to shift from oil and natural gas to coal
is adopted.

      The projections for the two cases are given in Table 11-1
and 11-2, and include the modifications indicated above for oil


      1U.S., Executive Office of the President, Energy Policy
and Planning.  The National Energy Plan.   Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1977.

      2Krohm, G.C., C.D. Dux, and J.S. Van Kuiken.  Effects on
Regional Coal Markets of the "Best Available Control Technology"
Policy for Sulfur Emissions, National Coal Utilization Assess-
ment.  Argonne, 111.:  Argonne National Laboratory, 1977.

                               920
-------
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                                 924
-------
shale and geothermal development.  As used in the SRI model, the
"Powder River Region" refers to the states of Montana, Wyoming,
and North and South Dakota;l the "Rocky Mountain Region" includes
New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado.  Allocations of national
nuclear production were based on present production rates.  The
number of facilities required was calculated by assuming the
facility sizes and capacity factors shown in Tables 11-1 and 11-2
and determining how many facilities of this size will be needed
for the total production indicated.  Adjusting total energy supply
for the reduction in number of oil shale facilities and the
addition of geothermal, the supply for the Nominal Demand case
is reduced to 155.1 Q and for Low Demand to 124.0 Q.

      In the SRI model, the geographical distribution of develop-
ment was carried out dividing the western states into only two
subregions, the Powder River and the Rocky Mountain areas.  For
some of our impact analyses, it was necessary to disaggregate
further to a state.  The number of facilities by state used in
the analysis is given in Table 11-3.  For the near future (to
1985), disaggregation was done on the basis of the locations of
announced energy facility developments.2  For later times (1990
and 2000), development was assumed to be proportional to the
proved reserves in each state.  Disaggregation based on resource
levels was done only to provide a basis for impact analyses.
Actual siting of facilities depends upon a number of other
factors, including site characteristics, land availability and
several legal and institutional factors.

11.1.3  Development Options

      Although energy resources are located in the West, options
exist- for where these resources are converted to end use forms.
Options will depend upon the resource being handled.  Oil shale
must be retorted very near the mine mouth because the yield of
the ore is small (high quality oil shale yields about 30 gallons
per ton of ore) and transportation costs per unit of energy are
consequently high.   Subsequent processing of the shale oil
      1 In the SRI model, the Powder River region includes the
Powder River Basin and the Fort Union Basin.  With several smaller
geologic basins, this area may be considered equivalent to the
Northern Great Plains region.

      2Denver Federal Executive Board, Committee on Energy and-
Environment, Subcommittee to Expedite Energy Development; and
Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council, Socioeconomic Impacts
of Natural Resource Development Committee.  A Listing of Pro-
posed, Planned or Under Construction Energy Projects in Federal
Region VIII;  A Joint Report.August 1975.(Unpublished report.)

                               925
-------
TABLE 11-3:
NUMBER OF FACILITIES BY STATE IN THE
LOW AND NOMINAL DEMAND SCENARIOS
STATE
Colorado
Power plants
Modified in situ
Uranium
Natural gas
TOSCO II
New Mexico
Natural gas
Crude oil
Uranium
Power plants
Geothermal
Gasification
Utah
Power plants
Uranium
TOSCO II oil
shale
Montana
Power plants
Gasification
Liquefaction
Wyoming
Power plants
Uranium
Gasification
Liquefaction
North Dakota
Power plants
Gasification
1975







19
7
4




1








3






1980
LOW

1
0
0
0
0

22
8
9
0
0
0

1
0

0

1
0
0

1
5
0
0

2
0
NOMINAL

1
0
0
0
0

22
8
10
1
0
0

1
0

0

2
0
0

1
6
0
0

2
0
1990
LOW

1
1
1
0
0

21
6
19
1
1
0

1
0

0

3
0
0

3
12
0
0

4
2
NOMINAL

2
3
2
8
2

15
6
22
1
10
0

2
2

0

5
1
0

2
16
0
0

6
2
2000
LOW

1
3
2
4
2

9
5
31
1
10
1

1
2

0

5
9
1

3
22
5
1

6
13
NOMINAL

2
13
3
4
10

8
5
42
1
71
2

2
3

2

6
15
1

3
31
9
1

9
21
                        926
-------
produced in the retort may be at a distant site because the
characteristics of the shale oil are comparable to crude oil,
and pipeline transportation is economical.

      Geothermal energy conversion to electricity must be done
near the wellhead because of heat transfer losses in transporta-
tion.  As a consequence, geothermal power plants tend to be
smaller than fossil fuel plants because of the areal extent of
well fields.

      Uranium ore is also low quality, so that the first step in
conversion, milling to yellowcake, is done in the vicinity of
the mine.  Other steps in the nuclear fuel cycle were not con-
sidered in this study.

      Oil and gas are both easily and economically transported by
pipeline in virtually the form in which they come out of the
ground.  At the present time, most crude oil refining is carried
on outside of the eight states considered in our study.  Since
the oil and gas resources in the region are limited, we assume
that this continues to be the case.

      Coal, then, is the only resource considered in the study
which may be converted or processed at the mine mouth, a demand
center, or at some other intermediate location at which other
required resources (such as water or labor)  are available or
regulations are attractive.  As discussed in Chapter 1, site
specific analyses of the impacts of coal conversion facilities
were carried out only for locations in the vicinity of mines.
Although most of the utilization of western coal is likely to be
outside the eight-state region, analysis of impacts at these de-
mand center sites was not carried out.  Siting at intermediate
locations was also not analyzed, although sites in South Dakota
near the Missouri River appear to be under consideration for
western coal processing.1

      In addition to locational options, different rates of devel-
opment of western energy resources can be considered.  Rates of
development at a specific location make a substantial difference
in the social, economic, and political impacts at that location,
but do not substantially change air and water impacts.  Region-
ally, social and economic impacts are also heavily affected by
rate of development, and in addition, impacts may arise because


      ^orsentino, J.S.  Projects to Expand Fuel Sources in
Western States:  Survey of Planned or Proposed Coal, Oil Shale,
Tar Sands, Uranium, and Geothermal Supply Expansion Projects,
and Related Infrastructure, in States West of the Mississippi
River (as of May 1976) , Bureau of Mines Information Circular
8719.Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1976,
p. 144.

                              927
-------
of bottlenecks in the provision of materials and equipment
required for facility construction or operation.  There may
also be ecological impacts which are dependent on the rate of
development; for example, plant and animal species may respond
differently depending on the time allowed to adapt to changed
surroundings resulting from new facilities.

      Chapters 4-9 in this report presented the results of
site specific impact analyses and include the residuals and
resource requirements data needed to perform the impact analysis
for each facility (i.e., data on emissions,  effluents, water
requirements, land use, labor requirements,  and capital cost).
These same data are used in this chapter, aggregated at the
regional level.  Neither geothermal development nor enhanced
recovery of oil were considered in the site specific analyses,
but residuals data for them are given in Chapter 3 and these
technologies are included in the scenarios in this chapter.

11.2  AIR IMPACTS

11.2.1  Introduction

      This section estimates regional air impacts which may re-
sult from energy developments in the eight western states.  The
analysis is carried out for the two development scenarios  (Low
and Nominal case) described in the previous section.  Regional
impacts discussed include effects of total emissions and possible
inadvertent weather modification, with the focus on total
emissions.

11.2.2  Existing Conditions

A.  Air Quality

      Table 11-4 gives national ambient air quality standards
for the six criteria pollutants1 and estimates of average back-
ground levels  for these pollutants in the West.  Based on the
limited data available, ambient air quality in the eight-state
study area appears good when considered in the context of annual
average concentrations of criteria pollutants.  However, short-
term (24-hour) particulate concentrations periodically exceed
the federal primary standard in some areas.   This violation
occurs because of windblown dust.  This is generally considered
to be a natural condition resulting from the arid climate, but
       Criteria pollutants are those for which federal ambient
air quality standards have been established.  They include par-
ticulates, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, photochemical
oxidants, hydrocarbons, and carbon monoxide.

                               928
-------
  TABLE 11-4:
REGIONAL  AIR QUALITY  AND NATIONAL STANDARDS'
(micrograras per cubic meter)
POLLUTANT
Particulates
Annual geometric mean
Maximum 24-hour
Sulfur Dioxide
Annual geometric mean
Maximum 24-hour
Maximum 3-hour
Nitrogen Dioxide
Annual geometric mean
Photochemical Oxidants
Maximum 1-hour
Hydrocarbons
Maximum 3-hour (6-9 a.m.)
BACKGROUND LEVELb
12 - 40
600
10 - 20
10
60 - 180d
130f
AMBIENT STANDARDS
PRIMARY
260°
80
365°
NA
100
160°
160°
SECONDARY
150°
NA
NA
1,300°
100
160°
160°
NA = not applicable

a40 C.F.R.  50 (1976).

 These levels represent  the  range  of measurements available across the
eight-state study area.
Q
 Not to be exceeded more than  once a year.

 Oxidant concentrations  vary greatly by location.  Peak oxidant values typ-
ically occur during the  summer and daily maxima occur during late afternoon.
Daily maxima in the Northern Great Plains have been documented at 160 to 180
micrograms per cubic meter (yg/m3)  and in the Central Rockies at 60 to 80
yg/m3.  See Teknekron,  Inc., Energy and Environmental Engineering Division.
An Integrated Technology Assessment of Electric Utility Energy Systems,
Briefing Materials;  Air Quality Impact Methodology and Results—Regional
Study and Subregional Problem  Areas:  Southwest, Rocky Mountains, Northern
Great Plains.  Berkeley, Calif.:   Teknekron, 1978, pp. 88-89.
g
 The HC standard is not  a strict standard as is the case with the other
criteria pollutants; rather, it primarily serves as a guideline for achiev-
ing oxidant standards.

 Annual average.  No short-term measurements are available for HC; annual
concentrations are considered  good indicators of baseline concentrations.
                                  929
-------
it has been suggested that human activity has destabilized the
ground surface so that dust is more easily released.1

      In addition, oxidant background levels (short-term)  in the
Northern Great Plains have been documented at 160 to 180 micro-
grams per cubic meter (yg/m3)  (Table 11-4), values which equal
or exceed the 1-hour federal standard (160 yg/m3).  Short-term
measurements of background hydrocarbon (HC) concentrations are
not available, but longer term averages approach the standard
(Table 11-4).   The extent to which high background oxidant and
HC levels are caused by human activity or natural conditions
is uncertain.   The fact that high HC concentrations have been
recorded in sparsely populated areas of Colorado2 indicates
that natural sources of HC may be important.3  In northwestern
Colorado, natural sources include vegetation (significant
emissions have been measured for some vegetation indigenous to
the area1*)  and evaporation from subsurface petroleum deposits.

B.  Meteorology

      The meteorological conditions which govern dispersion of
pollutants and long range transport of pollutants are especially
important in an assessment of likely air quality impacts due
to resource development.  Dispersion potential improves with
larger mixing depths5 and wind speeds.  It is generally best
during spring and summer because of high mixing depths and
poorest during the winter due to low mixing depths.   Geographi-
cally, the southeastern part of the region has the best
      ^.S., Department of the Interior, National Park Service,
Denver Service Center.  Analysis of Kaiparowits;  Power Plant
Impact on National Recreation Resources.  Denver, Colo.:  Denver
Service Center, 1976, p. 44.

      2Palomba, Joseph, Jr., comments in the "Report on the Fifth
APCA Government Affairs Seminar, A New Look-at the Old Clean Air
Act."  Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, Vol. 27
(June 1977) , p. 529.

      3Fosdick, George E., and Spencer A. Bullard.  Air Quality
Control for Oil Shale Tract C-b.  Denver, Colo.:  C-b Shale Oil
Project, 1976, p.  6.

      ^Rasmussen,  Reinhold A.  "What Do the Hydrocarbons from
Trees Contribute to Air Pollution?"  Journal of the Air Pollution
Control Association, Vol. 22 (July 1972), pp. 537-43.

      5Mixing depth is the height from the ground to the upward
boundary of pollutant dispersion.

                               930
-------
dispersion potential because of typically high mixing depths
and high wind speeds.  Mixing depths in the northern part of
the region tend to be lower, while wind speeds tend to be higher
in the eastern part than in the western part of the region.

      Air stagnation can cause serious dispersion problems in
the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) during the winter because
large masses of dense, cold air may be trapped between the Rocky
and Sierra Nevada Mountains.  Sharp terrain differences on the
western slope of the Rockies exacerbate this problem by trapping
air in deep valleys.  In contrast to the UCRB, the Upper Missouri
River Basin (UMRB) has much less air stagnation because of
stronger winds and less rugged terrain.

      Long range transport of certain pollutants (e.g., sulfates
and fine particulates) can create problems considerable distances
from energy facilities.  The areas impacted by this long range
transport depend upon the trajectories of air masses which con-
tain the sulfate or fine particulate pollutant.  Current know-
ledge of air mass trajectories suggests that, during summer,
trajectories of air masses following fronts may carry air from
the Powder River Basin to the Denver area; trajectories of masses
that precede fronts may carry air to Denver from the Four Corners
area.  The air from the Four Corners area, however, is likely to
lose much of its pollutant load over the Rockies because of
rainout.

11.2.3  Emissions

      Two separate analyses of air emissions from energy develop-
ment, in the eight-state area have been carried out.  In the first
analysis, the emissions which result from the energy facilities,
as projected through the year 2000 in the Low and Nominal Demand
scenarios, are evaluated.  These emission levels include those
associated with energy related population increases.  In the
second analysis, growth in air emissions in the West through
the year 2000 are examined where other economic sectors (in
addition to energy facilities) are accounted for.

A.  Emissions From Energy Facilities

      Aggregate emissions from the energy facilities depend on
the mix of technologies and the composition of the coal used at
the various coal facilities.  Table 11-5 gives emissions for
each technology, given the coal compositions assumed for each
area.  These are aggregated for two subregions in accordance
with the number of facilities projected in the Low and Nominal
Demand scenarios (the number of each kind of facility in each
subregion is given in Table 11-1 and 11-2).  Population related
air emissions are estimated using coefficients for each criteria
                              931
-------
          TABLE  11-5:
EMISSIONS  FROM ENERGY FACILITIES'
(thousands of  tons per year)
FACILITY
3000 MWe Power Plantb
75 percent load factor




250 MMscfd Lurgi
Gasification plant
90 percent load factor

250 MMscfd Synthane
Gasification Plant
90 percent load factor

100,000 bbl/day
Synthoil Liquefaction
Plant
90 percent load factor
100,000 bbl/day TOSCO II
Oil Shale Retort
90 percent load factor
100,000 bbl/day
Modified In Situ Oil
Shale Processing
90 percent load factor
1000 mtpy Uranium Mill

100,000 bbl/day Oil
Extraction
90 percent load factor
250 MMscfd
Natural Gas
90 percent load factor
100 MWe Geothermal
75 percent load factor
STATE
Utah
New Mexico
Colorado
Wyoming
Montana
North Dakota
New Mexico
Wyoming
Montana
North Dakota
New Mexico
Wyoming
Montana
North Dakota
Mew Mexico
Wyoming
Montana

Colorado


Colorado



New Mexico
Wyoming
Colorado


Wyoming




PARTICIPATES
6.90
16.49
3.65
3.93
9.17
9.89
N
N
N
N
0.03
0.03
0. 03
0.03
4.94
1.90
1.90

6.78


0.51 - 2.50



0.17
0.17
0.002


0.008


NA

S02
19. 05
32.06
19.16
21.15
45. 99
45.49
NOX
49.27 - 82. 12
62.09 - 103.48
47.05 - 78.41
51. 94 - 86. 57
62.09 - 103. 48
69.26 - 115.43
2.03 | 2.56
2.03
2.03
2.03
13. 89
13. 89
13.89
13.89
4.62
3.69
3.69

2.76


1.20-
2.37


0.004
0.004
0. 17


1. 84


0.69°

2.56
2. 56
2.56
19. 91
19. 91
19. 91
19.91
22.74
18.20
18.20

14. 98


4.07 - 12.29



0.001
HC
1.38
1.72
1.30
1.44
1.72
2.14
0.18
3.18
0. 18
0. 18
0.37
0.37
0. 37
0.37
6.65
5.32
5.32

8. 04


0. 83-
0. 90


N
0.001 | N
0.14


2.58


NA

0. 03


3.94


NA

SOz = sulfur dioxide
NOX = oxides of nitrogen
HC = hydrocarbons
MWe = megawatt-electric
MMscfd = million standard cubic  feet per day
                          N  = negligible
                          bbl/day = barrels per  day
                          mtpy = metric tons per year
                          NA = not available
 These data  are from chapters  4-9 where pounds per  hour were converted to tons  per
year using the load factor.

 Assuming 80 percent S02 scrubber efficiency,  99 percent particulate removal  effi-
ciency,  and  from 0 to 40 percent NOX removal.

"Hydrogen sulfide, assuming 90  percent removal efficiency.
                                      932
-------
pollutant.1  Emissions from the energy facilities, those
associated with the population, and the totals are given in
Tables 11-6 and 11-7 for the Northern Great Plains (North
Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming)  and in Tables 11-8 and 11-9 for
the Rocky Mountain States (Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico) .
Figure 11-5 summarizes these data by indicating the increases
(or decreases) relative to 1975 emission levels that projected
emissions represent.

      Note from Table 11-6 through 11-9 that, except in the case
of HC, emissions from energy related population increases are
only a small fraction (0.04 to 6.5 percent) of those from the
energy facilities.  In fact, the site specific analyses (Chapters
4-9) indicated that HC air concentrations which result from
emissions associated with the population (from automobile and
space heating systems)  are likely to violate the federal ambient
air quality HC standard.  In the Northern Great Plains (Tables
11-6 and 11-7) HC emissions from the population exceed those
from energy facilities by the year 2000.  This is not the case
in the Rocky Mountain States (Table 11-9:  Nominal) because the
oil shale facilities are located there and emit relatively large
quantities of HC.

      Figure 11-5 shows that for the Low Demand case in 2000
the largest increases above 1975 levels for sulfur dioxide (S02)
and oxides of nitrogen  (NOx) occur in the Northern Great Plains
subregion (1.71 times greater than 1975 levels for SC-2 and
on the order of 5.6 times greater than 1975 levels for N0y) .
The largest increase by the year 2000 in the Rocky Mountain
region (Low Demand case) is for NOX (1.36-1.51 times greater
than 1975 levels.  NOX emission levels are highly uncertain
since the quantity of NOX that scrubbers will remove has been
estimated to range from none to 40 percent.  The data in Tables
11-6 through 11-9 reflect that range.   In the Rocky Mountain
States, Figure 11-5 shows that HC emission levels for the Low
Demand case increase only slightly, but for the Nominal Demand
case they increase to a level 1.27 times larger than the 1975
level due to sharply increased levels of oil shale production.
Overall,  emissions due to energy facilities are projected to be
lower in the Rocky Mountain States than in the Northern Great
Plains.  This is a consequence of the projections which indicate
that larger numbers of coal fired power plants will be built in
the Northern Great Plains than in the Rocky Mountain States;
power plants emit greater quantities of criteria pollutants (ex-
cept HC)  than other energy facilities.

      Emissions by state are given in Table 11-10 for the Low
and Nominal Demand scenarios in 1990 and 2000.  The increases
             coefficients are given in footnote c of Tables 11-6
through 11-9.

                              933
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                                            937
-------
  TABLE  11-10:    PROJECTED  EMISSIONS  IN  SIX WESTERN  STATES:
                      LOW  AND NOMINAL  DEMAND  SCENARIOS3
                      (thousands  of  tons  per  year)

Colorado: 1975b
Increase2 1990
2000
Total: 2000
New Mexico: 197 5b
Increase0 1990
2000
Total: 2000
Utah: 1975b
Increase0 1990
2000
Total: 2000
Wyoming: 1975b
Increase0 1990
2000
Total: 2000
Montana: 197 5b
Increase0 1990
2000
Total: 2000
North Dakota: 1975b
Increase0 1990
2000
Total: 2000
PARTICULATES
222
5.32 - 25.78
22.08 - 95.00
244.08 - 317.00
113
19.05 - 19.52
21.01 - 22.92
134.01 - 135.92
79
0.00 - 7.24
0.34 - 20.97
79.34 - 99. 97
83.1
13.32 - 10.07
17.58 - 19.24
100.68 - 102.34
301
27.51 - 45. 88
48.04 - 57. 38
349.04 - 358.38
87.1
39.62 - 59.40
59.74 - 89.66
146.84 - 176.76
S02
54.2
20.94 - 63.92
37.39 - 96.00
91.59 - 150.20
490
36. 32 - 31.50
28.29 - 76.54
518.29 - 566.54
168
0.00 - 19.06
0.01 - 24.58
168.01 - 192.58
76.5
63. 49 - 42.35
107.03 - 138.52
183.53 - 215.02
960
137.97 - 237.91
305.28 - 399.03
1265.28 - 1359.03
86.6
197.88 - 288.86
376.42 - 576.17
463.02 - 663.17
NO*
163
70.91 - 200.50
127.45 - 391.65
290.45 - 554.65
220
87.81 - 72.34
67.96 - 76.62
287.96 - 296.62
89
0.00 - 65.69
N - 95.66
89.00 - 184.66
80
207.77 - 138.53
282.13 - 327.06
362.13 - 407.06
164
248.34 - 425.15
533.19 - 683. 36
697.19 - 847.36
94.5
391.85 - 576.54
700.06 - 1067.00
794.56 - 1161.43
HC
213
2.17 - 51.05
35.70 - 109.94
248.70 - 322.94
168
9.57 - -14. (H*
-37.47°- -41.14d
130.53 - 126.86
108
0.00 - 1.38
N - 17.46
108.00 - 125.46
61
4.32 - 2.88
11.01 - 12.11
72.01 - 73. 11
300
5.15 - 8.87
16.39 - 19.76
316.39 - 319.76
77.5
9.11 - 13.39
16.42 - 25.03
93.92 - 102.53
SOz  = sulfur dioxide
NOX  = oxides of nitrogen
HC = hydrocarbons
N = negligible
 For 1990 and 2000  the Low Demand projection is given first,  followed by the Nominal Demand
projections.

 The 1975 emission  levels indicated in Tables 11-6 thrcugh 11-10 come from  U.S., Environmen-
tal Protection Agency.  National Emissions Data System (NEDS) Annual Report.  Research Tri-
angle Park, N.C.:   National Environmental Research Center,  1975.

Contribution projected to come from energy facilities.

 This is a negative number because oil and gas production declines through  2000; HC emissions
from oil and gas facilities decrease more than those from additional synthetic  fuels facili-
ties and power plants increase.
                                         938
-------
                         Rocky  Mountain Region
                         Northern Great Plains  Region
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     ]'J75  1980
                      1990
                              1.70


                              1.60


                              1.50


                              1.40


                              1.30


                            £ 1.20

                            (U
                            ^ 1.10
	.  
-------
in emissions by state follow the same general trends found in
the resource subareas.  In the Low Demand case, Montana is pro-
jected to have the highest emissions of particulates, SOz and
HC by 2000, while North Dakota is projected to have the highest
NOX emissions.  In the six states listed, NOX emissions generally
would increase more than the other criteria pollutant emissions,
with increases by 2000 ranging up to 700,000 tons per year (Low
Demand)  for North Dakota.  SOz emissions are also expected to
show large increases by 2000, while particulate emissions are
expected to be only slightly higher than 1975 levels.  In New
Mexico,  very little change in emissions between 1990 and 2000
and between the Low and Nominal cases is projected.  This is
because, although synthetic fuel and geothermal energy are in-
creasing, oil and gas production is decreasing between 1990 and
2000.

      Table 11-11 lists emissions in selected states (outside
the western region) which are thought to be representative of
low or moderately industrialized states  (such as Iowa and Georgia)
and of highly industrialized states (such as Ohio and California).
By comparison, the 1975 emissions and projected emissions in the
six western states are relatively low1 with the exception of
projected S02 emissions.  For example, 1975 particulate levels
in the six states listed in Table 11-10 ranged from 79,000 to
301,000 tons.  These can be compared with 1972 levels in Iowa
(239,000 tons), California (1,100,000 tons) and Ohio (1,947,999
tons).  In 2000, particulate emissions in the six states are
projected to range from 79,300 tons to 349,000 tons  (Low Demand).
The highest value is for Montana, which is similar to 1972
emissions in Iowa.  Projected emissions of NOX and HC in the
six western states are generally lower than emissions in the
states outside the region  (Table 11-10 compared with Table 11-11).
By 2000, however, SOz emissions  (Low Demand) in Montana exceed
those in all states shown in Table 11-11 except Ohio.  In New
Mexico and North Dakota, projected S02 emissions in 2000 (Low
Demand)  are similar to 1975 emissions in California and Georgia.

      Emissions densities  (calculated as the facility emissions
divided by the area of the region in which production occurs)
also give some indication of likely regional air quality problems
such as reductions in visibility and sulfate formation.  For
SOa, a density of 14 tons per year per square mile  (500 kg/km2)
has been identified in the Ohio River Basin as a level above
            finding is stated for the purpose of comparison
only.  We do not intend to imply that the degradation that would
be experienced would be either acceptable or unacceptable.

                              940
-------
     TABLE 11-11:
EMISSIONS IN SELECTED STATES IN 1972'
(thousands of tons per year)
STATE
Ohio
California
Georgia
Washington
Texas
Iowa
PARTICULATES
1,947
1,110
446
179
606
239
S02
3,290
434
521
301
830
312
N0x
1,210
1,830
408
207
1,440
267
HC
1,272
2,380
505
380
2,450
349
        S02 = sulfur dioxide
        NOx = oxides of nitrogen
        HC = hydrocarbons

        U.S., Environmental Protection Agency.  Nationa.1
       Emissions Report, EN-226.  Research Triangle Park,
       N.C.:  National Environmental Research Center, 1974
which air pollution problems may arise.l   Table 11-12 gives
emission densities for S02 using two regional areas.  In one
case, the state area is divided into total S02 emissions for
that state (from Table 11-10).  In the other case, the area
of all counties in which energy facilities are projected to be
sited is divided into total S02 emissions.  This county level
emission density calculation is done for two subregions, Northern
Great Plains and Rocky Mountains.  As indicated in Table 11-12,
in the year 2000 the 14 tons per year per square mile index is
exceeded for the counties in the Northern Great Plains in both
the Low and Nominal cases; it is slightly exceeded in the Rocky
Mountains in the Nominal case.  While this index of 14 tons per
square mile was calculated for the Ohio River Basin and thus
may not apply to the West, these calculations do suggest that
the magnitude of emissions is of concern.

B.  Emissions From All Economic Sectors

      The second air emission analysis was carried out using the
Environmental Protection Agency's  (EPA's) Strategic Environmental
      !Smith, Lowell F., and Brand L. Niemann, "The Ohio River
Basin Energy Study:  The Future of Air Resources and Other Factors
Affecting Energy Development."  Paper presented at the Third
International Conference on Environmental Problems of the Extrac-
tive Industries, Dayton, Ohio, November 29-December 1, 1977, p. 22.
                              941
-------
     TABLE 11-12:
EMISSION DENSITIES FOR SULFUR DIOXIDE
(tons per square mile per year)

o
By state
New Mexico
Colorado
Utah
Montana
Wyoming
North Dakota
By counties aggregated
to subregionsb
Rocky Mountain States
Northern Great Plains
1975

4.02
0.52
1.98
6.52
0.78
1.22

5.40
1.35
2000
LOW

4.25
0.88
1.98
8.57
1.88
6.54

8.04
20.43
NOMINAL

4.65
1.44
2.27
9.21
2.20
9.36

13.38
28.32
          Calculated by dividing total sulfur dioxide
         (S02)  emissions by state from Table 11-10 by
         the area of each state in square miles.

          Calculated by dividing total S02 emissions
         from all energy facilities in a subregion by
         the total area of all counties in which energy
         facilities are located.  Total SO2 emissions
         are obtained from Tables 11-6 through 11-9;
         1975 emissions for the subregion must be sub-
         tracted from that total and 1975 emissions for
         the counties added.  County areas are 25,308
         square miles in the Rocky Mountain States and
         41,608 square miles in the Northern Great
         Plains.  1975 S02 emissions for the counties
         total 136,400 tons per year (Rocky Mountains)
         and 56,300 tons per year (Northern Great
         Plains).
Assessment System (SEAS)  model1 which examined growth in air
emissions for all economic sectors due to a "Nominal Dirty"
      ^.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Technology Assess-
ment Model Project (TAMP) .  A Description of the SEAS Model,
Project Officer Dr. Richard Ball.  Washington, D.C.:  Environ-
mental Protection Agency, 1977.  (Unpublished report.)
                              942
-------
 (155 Q) demand scenario.  The "Nominal Dirty" scenario assumed 4.2
million bbl/day of shale oil by the year 2000 rather than the 2.5
million bbl/day assumed in the SRI Nominal scenario.  Emission as-
sumptions were based on emissions data collected for SEAS.  Emis-
sions control assumptions correspond to pre-1977 State Implementa-
tion Plans, with NSPS becoming effective in 1979, except in Arizona,
Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, where stricter state stan-
dards are assumed to apply after 1979.

     Disaggregation of emissions was to three subregions:  I - North
and South Dakota and Montana; II - Colorado and Wyoming; and
III - New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah.

     Emissions of criteria pollutants for these subregions are shown
in Figures 11-6 through 11-10.  The greatest increases in emissions
are projected to occur in Colorado and Wyoming with a 900 percent
increase in S02, 677 percent increase in NOX, and 248 percent in-
crease in particulates by the year 2000.  Emissions of HC and car-
bon monoxide (CO) decline until 1990 in the eight-state area, and
increase only modestly after that.  The sources of these emissions
are primarily automobiles rather than industry.  The decline is
caused by the SEAS model assumption that emission control on auto-
mobiles will gradually tighten through the 1980's.  The effect of
that tightening, if it occurs, apparently more than offsets the
population growth and associated increased numbers of automobiles.

     As shown in Figure 11-6, projected S02 emissions decrease in
New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah.  Sources of emissions explain this
trend.  The sources of S02 emissions for Colorado and Arizona are
shown in Figure 11-11 for 1980, 1990, and 2000.  In Colorado, pro-
duction of electricity and industrial use of coal, along with oil
shale development are the sources of increasing SOz emissions.  In
Arizona, production of electricity from coal accounts for an in-
creased level of SO2 emissions, but this is more than offset by
tightened emission standards on copper smelting,  the source of 92.6
percent of 1980 S02 emissions.

11.2.4  Inadvertent Weather Modification1

     Since coal combustion and synthetic fuel production add
heat, water vapor, and various air pollutants to the atmosphere,
they have the potential to affect weather patterns.  Effects
can include changes in precipitation (particularly cloudiness,
     1 As indicated in the introduction to this chapter, the so-
called greenhouse effect will not be considered here.

                                 943
-------
            900


            800


            700
         a  600
          Q)
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            500
          4-1
          O
            400
            300
            200
            100
                      I
             I
I
                                                 II
              1975   1980  1985   1990  1995   2000
  FIGURE 11-6:
GROWTH OF SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSIONS IN THE
NOMINAL DIRTY SCENARIO
a!975 base sulfur dioxides were as follows:  Nation,  28.17 mil-
lion tons per year; Subregion I (Montana, North Dakota,  and
South Dakota), 379.7 thousand tons per year  (Mtpy); Subregion
II (Colorado and Wyoming), 154.1 Mtpy; and Subregion  III (New
Mexico, Arizona, and Utah), 2883.0 Mtpy.
                               944
-------
           900
            800
            700
        ro   600
         0)
         M-l
         O
            500
         C  400
         o
         S-l
            300
            200
            100
                                  J_
                       J_
                                                   II
                                                   III
                                                   Nation
             1975   1980  1985   1990  1995   2000
    FIGURE  11-7:
GROWTH OF OXIDES OF NITROGEN EMISSIONS
IN THE NOMINAL DIRTY SCENARIO
 1975 base oxides of nitrogen were as follows:  Nation,  17.55
million tons per year; Subregion I  (Montana, North  Dakota,  and
South Dakota), 169.5 thousand tons per year  (Mtpy);  Subregion
II (Colorado and Wyoming), 237.7 Mtpy; and Subregion III (New
Mexico, Arizona, and Utah), 379.4 Mtpy.
                              945
-------
             900




             800




             700
          re  600
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             500
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           o


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           n

           &, 300
             200
             100
                                                    II
                                    I

                                    III


                                    Nation
              1975    1980   1985    1990   1995    2000
  FIGURE 11-8:
GROWTH OF PARTICULATE EMISSIONS IN THE NOMINAL

DIRTY SCENARIO
a!975 base participates were as follows:  Nation, 20.19 million

tons per year; Subregion I (Montana, North Dakota, and South

Dakota), 160.4 thousand tons per year  (Mtpy); Subregion II  (Colo-

rado and Wyoming), 228.0 Mtpy; and Subregion III  (New Mexico,

Arizona, and Utah), 335.8 Mtpy.
                               946
-------
             200
                                                   II
                                                   III
                                                   I
                                                   Nation
              1975
     1980
1985  1990
1995  2000
  FIGURE 11-9:
GROWTH OF HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS IN THE NOMINAL
DIRTY SCENARIO
 1975 base hydrocarbons were as follows:  Nation, 14.87 million
tons per year; Subregion I (Montana, North Dakota, and South
Dakota), 216.9 thousand tons per year (Mtpy); Subregion II (Colo-
rado and Wyoming), 216.9 Mtpy); Subregion III (New Mexico, Arizona,
and Utah), 368.3 Mtpy.
                               947
-------
          cfl

o
0)
             100
              75
              50
              25
                                                    II
                                                    Nation
                       I
                         _L
               1975
           1980  1985   1990   1995   2000
    FIGURE 11-10:
        DECLINE OF CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS  IN  THE
        NOMINAL DIRTY SCENARIO
a!975 base carbon monoxides were as follows:  Nation,  103.3  mil-
lion tons per year; Subregion I  (Montana, North  Dakota,  and  South
Dakota), 1127.0 thousand tons per year  (Mtpy); Subregion II  (Colo-
rado and Wyoming), 1592.0 Mtpy; and Subregion III  (New Mexico,
Arizona, and Utah), 2672.0 Mtpy.
                               948
-------







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                         949
-------
fogginess, humidity levels, rain and snowfall amounts), changes
in temperature, wind velocity reductions, and production of
severe weather.

      Most of the research in inadvertent weather modification
has been concerned with precipitation effects.  Because cloud
droplets form around small particles, the addition of small
particulate matter (smaller than that normally perceived to
affect air quality) is thought to have the most impact.  But
whether these particulate additions cause precipitation to in-
crease or decrease is uncertain.  In general, adding small par-
ticulates to the air leads to clouds consisting of many small
droplets which are slow in coalescing into rain.l  On the other
hand, formation of snow in winter clouds and in the upper, cold
portions of summer clouds depends on the; presence of insoluble
particles;2 their presence tends to increase precipitation but
it is not known whether particulates from coal facilities will
cause this effect.

      One research project in the Midwest section of the country
recognized both increases and decreases in rainfall, depending
on the details of the weather situation., 3  Another study indi-
cated an increase in rainfall due to the presence of large par-
ticles in pulp mill plumes.4  In nearly all cases, where an in-
crease in precipitation due to pollution was observed, the
location already had plentiful moisture.  In arid and semiarid
regions, there is concern that air pollution may decrease pre-
cipitation.  One very preliminary study of the Northern Great
Plains indicates that a decrease in precipitation would be
likely with significant levels of coal development because of
the increase in cloud "stability" due to large numbers of small
particulates that would be introduced.5  Clearly, even minor
changes in rainfall in the western states would have a major
impact on ecosystems and crop production.  In short, particulates


      tennis, Arnett S., and Briant L. Davis.  Statement in
Support of a National Energy Research and Development Planpre-
sented at ERDA Public Meeting, Denver, Colorado, May 17-18,
1976), Bulletin 76-2.  Rapid City, S.D.:  South Dakota School
of Mines and Technology, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, 1976.

      2Cloud seeding procedures generally involve the introduction
of insoluble particles into cold clouds.

      3Project METROMEX.  "A Review of Results Summarized by the
National Science Foundation and Other Groups."  Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society, Vol. 55  (1974), pp. 86-121.

      4Dennis and Davis.  Support of National R&D Plan.

      5 Ibid.

                              950
-------
added by activities such as coal-fired power plants may travel
hundreds of miles downwind.  While the effects of those particu-
lates on precipitation amounts may be significant, the nature of
the effect is largely unknown.

11.3  WATER IMPACTS

11.3.1  Introduction

     Water impacts have been evaluated for the UCRB and UMRB.
Impacts are assessed for two levels of development  (Low and Nomi-
nal Demand cases) and for the time period 1980 to 2000.  Water re-
quirements and water effluents of mining, conversion facilities,
energy transportation modes, and associated population increases
are identified and resulting water impacts are analyzed for each
basin.

11.3.2  Impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin

     The UCRB includes parts of Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Arizona,
and New Mexico.  It can be divided into three subregions associated
with the Green River, the Upper Main Stem of the Colorado River,
and the San Juan River as shown in Figure 11-12.

A.  Existing Conditions

(1)  Surface Water

     The magnitude of water availability impacts associated with
energy development in the UCRB depends in part on the quantity of
surface water available in the basin.  Estimates of this supply
vary widely, but three references are most commonly used:

     1.  The Department of the Interior's Water for Energy
         Management Team1 estimates that at least 5.8 million
         acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) are available for
         consumptive use in the UCRB.  Their estimate is
         based on releasing 8.25 million acre-ft/yr to the
         Lower Basin and allowing for shortages to irriga-
         tion users during subnormal years.
     l\J.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage-
ment Team.  Report on Water for Energy in the Upper Colorado
River Basin.  Denver, Colo.:  Department of the Interior, 1974.

                               951
-------
                               WYOMING
                                        NEW MEXICO
FIGURE  11-12:   UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
                      952
-------
     2.  Tipton and Kalmbach1 estimated that 6.3 million
         acre-ft/yr would be available for consumptive use
         if 7.5 million acre-ft/yr2 were delivered to the
         Lower Basin and Upper Basin users did not have to
         experience any shortages.

     3.  Weatherford and Jacoby estimated that 5.25 mil-
         lion acre-ft/yr are available for consumptive
         use if 8.25 million acre-ft/yr are delivered to
         the Lower Basin.3

     In our analysis, 5.8 million acre-ft/yr was used, although
for impacts which are particularly dependent on flow rate, the
effects of using other values are noted.k

     Estimates of the quantities of water currently being consumed
in the UCRB also vary, primarily because of the inconsistent


     lrTipton and Kalmbach, Inc.  Water Supplies of the Colorado
River, in U.S., Congress, House of Representatives, Committee on
Interior and Insular Affairs.  Lower Colorado River Basin Project.
Hearings before the Subcommittee on Irrigation and Reclamation,
89th Cong., 1st sess., 1965, p. 467.

     2The difference between the Department of Interior's estimate
of 8.25 million acre-ft/yr and this estimate of 7.5 million acre-
ft/yr which must be released to the Lower Basin is due to assump-
tions about where the water that is guaranteed to Mexico will come
from.  In the Mexican Water Treaty of 1944 (Treaty between the
United States of America and Mexico Respecting Utilization of
Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande,
February 3, 1944, 59 Stat.  1219 [1945], Treaty Series No.  994),
the U.S. agreed to guarantee Mexico 1.5 million acre-ft/yr; the
Department of Interior's estimate assumes that the Upper Basin
states are responsible for supplying one half of the amount or
0.75 million acre-ft/yr.  The Upper Basin states evidently do not
assume delivery of 0.75, thus their estimate is 7.5 rather than
8.25 million acre-ft/yr.

     3Weatherford, Gary D., and Gordon C. Jacoby.   "Impact of
Energy Development on the Law of the Colorado River."  Natural
Resources Journal, Vol.  15 (January 1975), pp.  171-213.

     ''Estimates of water available for consumptive use generally
assume an average flow rate for the Colorado River.  The most
common estimate of average flow rate is 13.5 million acre-ft/yr.
However, the standard deviation of these estimates is 3.4 million,
meaning that in 67 percent of the years, flow would be between
10.1 and 16.9 million acre-ft.   In drought years,  flow could be
much less;  flow for 1977 has been estimated at 5.3 million acre-
feet.

                               953
-------
depletion categories used by various studies.  Table 11-13 gives
values for 1974 depletions totaling 3.7 million acre-ft/yr.
Using different assumptions, another study estimated 1975 deple-
tions to be 3.2 million acre-ft/yr.2

     Irrigation of agriculture accounted for 58 percent of the
1974 depletion.  Interbasin transfers, the largest of which was
to the Denver area, consumed 20 percent,, and evaporation losses
accounted for 14 percent.  Other uses were negligible compared to
these.

     Water quality in the UCRB has been studied extensively.  The
principal water quality problem is salinity.  The average annual
salt flow at Lee Ferry has been estimated at 8.6 million tons, of
which 4.3 million tons are from natural sources, 1.5 million tons
from agriculture and 2.8 million tons from other manmade sources.3
A detailed description of the natural sources of salinity is in-
cluded in several reports.4  According to the classification sys-
tem used by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), water with a salt
or total dissolved solids (TDS) content of up to 1,000 milligrams
per liter (mg/ii) is considered fresh.  The EPA Interim Primary
Drinking Water Standard has no TDS limit;5 however, the EPA
     ^.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage-
ment Team.  Report on Water for Energy in the Upper Colorado
River Basin.  Denver, Colo.:  Department of the Interior, 1974,
p. 13.

     2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Westwide Study Report on Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western
States.  Washington, B.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1975.

     3Hyatt, M. Leon, et al.  Computer Simulation of the Hydrologic-
Salinity Flow System Within the Upper Colorado River Basin.  Logan,
Utah:  Utah State University, Utah Water Research Laboratory,
1970..  Other studies differ in their breakdown of sources but
appear to agree on total load in the river.

     "*Williams, J. Stewart.  The Natural Salinity of the Colorado
River, Occasional Paper 7.  Logan, Utah!Utah State University,
Utah Water Research Laboratory, 1975; and U.S., Department of the
Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Water Quality Office.  Quality
of Water—Colorado River Basin, Progress Report No. 7.  Denver,
Colo.:Bureau of Reclamation, 1975.

     5U.S., Environmental Protection Agency.  "National Interim
Primary Drinking Water Regulations."  40 Fed. Reg. 59,566-88.
(December 24, 1975).

                               954
-------

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proposed secondary standard recommends that TDS be limited to
500 mg/2,.1  For livestock, water is rated good up to a TDS of
2,500 mg/£.2

     The more saline the water, the less desirable it is for agri-
cultural purposes as well as for drinking.  Concentrations of TDS
at various points in the UCRB are shown in Table 11-14.  All the
streams are fresh according to the USGS classification system,
except for the San Rafael River which flows through extensive salt
and potash deposits in Utah.

     The allocation of water rights and legal/political problems
surrounding them will be important in determining whether a por-
tion of the unused water in the UCRB can be used for energy devel-
opments.  The legal structure governing the Colorado River has a
long history of development.3  Major compacts include the Colorado
River Compact, which apportioned the flow between the Upper and
Lower Basins and guaranteed 7.5 million acre-ft/yr to the Lower
Basin.  The UCRB Compact1* divided the flow available to the Upper
Basin, giving 50,000 acre-ft/yr to Arizona and apportioning 51.75
percent of the remainder to Colorado, 11.25 percent to New Mexico,
23 percent to Utah, and 14 percent to Wyoming.

     The Mexican Water Treaty of 1944 guarantees Mexico 1.5 mil-
lion acre-ft/yr from the Colorado River5 but does not specify
whether this amount should come equally from the Upper and Lower
Basin apportionments or all from the Lower Basin.  In addition,
     ^.S., Environmental Protection Agency.  "National Secondary
Drinking Water Regulations," Proposed Regulations.  42 Fed. Reg.
17,143-47  (March 31, 1977).

     2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.
Final Environmental Impact Statement:  Proposed Kaiparowits Pro-
ject ,6 vols.Salt Lake City,Utah:Bureau of Land Management,
T9T6, p. 11-152.

     3The appropriation system dates to the 1800's, and the Colo-
rado River Compact was enacted in 1922 (42 Stat. 171) and de-
clared effective by Presidential Proclamation in 1928 (46 Stat.
3000).

     4Upper Colorado River Basin Compact of 1948,  Pub. L. 81-37,
63 Stat. 31  (1949).

     5Treaty between the United States of America and Mexico Re-
specting Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers
and of the Rio Grande, February 3, 1944,  59 Stat.  1219 (1945),
Treaty Series No. 994.

                               956
-------
   TABLE  11-14:
AVERAGE TOTAL DISSOLVED SOLIDS CONCENTRATIONS
IN STREAMS OF THE UPPER COLORADO REGION,
1941-1972
STATION LOCATION
Green River Subregion
Green River at Green River, Wyoming
Green River near Greendale, Utah
Green River at Green River, Utah
Duchesne River near Randlett, Utah
San Rafael River near Green River, Utah
Upper Main Stem Subregion
Colorado River near Glenwood Springs, Colorado
Colorado River near Cameo, Colorado
Colorado River near Cisco, Utah
Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colorado
San Juan-Colorado Subregion
San Juan River near Archuleta, New Mexico
San Juan River near Bluff, Utah
Upper Colorado Region Outlet
Colorado River at Lee Ferry, Arizona
TOTAL
DISSOLVED
SOLIDS
(mg/A)
307
421
456
680
1,688
270
405
612
621
159
447
558
mg/£ = milligrams per liter

Source:  Abstracted from U.S., Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Reclamation, Water Quality Office.  Quality of Water-
Colorado River Basin, Progress Report No. 7.  Denver, Colo.:
Bureau of Reclamation, 1975.
an agreement with Mexico in 19731 and the Colorado River Basin
Salinity Control Act of 19742 address salinity problems in the
basin.  Water quality standards for the Colorado River have been
set by the states of the basin at 723 mg/£ below Hoover Dam, 747


     International Boundary and Water Commission.  "Permanent
and Definitive Solution to the International Problem of the
Salinity of the Colorado River," Minute No. 242.  Department of
State Bulletin, Vol. 69 (September 24, 1973), pp. 395-96.

     2Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 1974, Pub. L.
93-320, 88 Stat. 266 (codified at 43 U.S.C.A. §§ 1571 et seq.
[Supp. 1976]).

                               957
-------
mg/£ below Parker Dam, and 879 mg/£ at Imperial Dam.1  Adding to
the complexity are the uncertainties associated with quantifica-
tion of federal and Indian water rights and any allocation of flows
to instream use.  The federal government owns about 70 percent of
the land in the Colorado River Basin and Indians have claimed
rights to as much water as needed on the reservation.  Federal and
Indian rights under the Winters Doctrine reserve a sufficient
quantity of unappropriated water to accomplish the purposes for
which land was reserved.  The Winters Doctrine has been affirmed
in the courts to hold that reserved rights are not subject to
state appropriation laws and that those rights are not lost if
they are not used.  These water problems and issues are elaborated
in the Policy Analysis Report.2

(2) Groundwater

     Large quantities of groundwater are present in the UCRB.
Although its distribution and quality are largely a function of
geology and topography, UCRB groundwater is generally more evenly
distributed than surface water and has a higher TDS.  The most
important groundwater aquifers are in sedimentary bedrock and in
sand and gravel alluvium along rivers and streams.  An estimated
115 million acre-ft/yr of water is stored in these aquifers at a
depth of less than 100 feet,3 with substantially greater quantities
in deeper reservoirs.  This quantity is almost four times the
storage capacity of all surface water reservoirs in the basin.
The rate of  recharge is about 4 million acre-ft/yr, but because
many groundwater aquifers are isolated, the rate of withdrawal
locally without mining must be determined from local recharge
rates.  Wells capable of yielding as much as 1,000 gallons per
minute (gpm) can be drilled in much of the basin. "*

     Flow into groundwater aquifers usually takes place at high
elevations where precipitation and flow in surface streams is

     J41 Fed. Reg. 13,656-57  (March 31, 1976).  Colorado agreed
to the standards at a later date.

     2White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West;  Policy
Analysis Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U„S.,Environmental Protec-
tion Agency, forthcoming.

     3Price, Don, and Ted Arnow.  Summary Appraisals of the
Nation's Ground-Water Resources—Upper Colorado Region, U.S.
Geological Survey Professional Paper 813-C.  Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, 1974.

     ''U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Westwide Study Report on Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western
States.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1975,
p. 35.

                               958
-------
greatest and where the layers of rock making up the aquifer crop
out at the surface.  Discharge from the aquifers occurs at lower
elevations in springs, seeps, and back into surface streams.  Be-
cause of the slow movement of water in the aquifer, its behavior
is much like that of a surface impoundment.  With a continuous
discharge, this can be beneficial to maintaining flow in surface
streams during periods of normal low flow.

     Water quality in aquifers in the UCRB varies widely but in
general is a function of the mineral composition of the aquifer
and the length of time the water has been stored there.  Thus,
water close to the recharge area (at higher elevations) has the
best quality, and quality decreases at lower elevations.  Water
in aquifers above 7,000 feet elevation generally has a TDS of less
than 1,000 mg/£.*  This is fresh water according to the USGS
classification system.

     About 133,000 acre-ft/yr of groundwater are currently used
in the UCRB.2  In the basin, this is 2 percent of the total water
used3 and about 3 percent of the annual recharge rate for ground-
water.  Groundwater use is limited by inadequate knowledge of its
location and quality, and because the slow movement of water in
aquifers requires a large number of wells over a wide area to
withdraw at a substantial rate.  (For perspective, if a suffi-
ciently large groundwater aquifer could be found, 25 wells would
be required, each producing 1,000 gpm, to supply water to a 3,000
megawatt-electric  [MWe] power plant.)   In addition, obtaining
rights to groundwater can be difficult because of the inconsis-
tencies and uncertainties associated with its administration.
Groundwater has been administered locally rather than on a state-
wide or regional basis, but this situation is changing as demand
for water increases.

B.  Water Requirements

     The water requirements for energy development in the UCRB
have been calculated for the two levels of energy development
     1 Price, Don, and Ted Arnow.  Summary Appraisals of the Na-
tion's Ground-Water Resources--Upper Colorado Region, U.S. Geolog-
ical Survey Professional Paper 813-C.  Washington, B.C.:  Govern-
ment Printing Office, 1974.

     2U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Westwide Study Report on Water Problems Facing the Eleven Wesjtern
States.   Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1975,
p. 35.

     3Price and Arnow.  Ground-Water Resources—Upper Colorado
Region.

                               959
-------
postulated in Section 11.I.1  These requirements are shown in
Table 11-15.  Assuming high wet cooling,, the largest requirements
are for power plants.  If intermediate cooling is used, regional
water demands for energy would be reduced by about 60,000 acre-ft
by the year 2000, assuming the Low Demand case.  This represents
about a 20 percent decrease in total basin water requirements.2

     Projected water requirements resulting from the increases in
population associated with the three levels of development are
shown in Table 11-16.  Assuming a daily consumption of 150 gallons
per person, these water requirements will be less than 85,000
acre-ft/yr.  This is approximately the amount of water required
for three steam-electrical power plants,.  Thus, population water
requirements will be small compared to those for the facilities
themselves, and will remain small, even if the per capita consump-
tion doubles from the 150 gallons assumed.

     Total increased water requirements for the UCRB in the year
2000 for the two levels of energy development assumed in Section
11.1 are:   Low Demand case, 311,500 acre-ft/yr and Nominal Demand
case, 1,338,000 acre-ft/yr with wet cooling.  If wet/dry cooling
is used, water requirements are reduced to 251,500 acre-ft/yr in
the Low Demand case and 1,246,800 acre-ft/yr in the Nominal De-
mand case.

C.  Water Effluents

     Solid effluents and the quantity of wastewater produced by
the energy facilities are given in Table 11-17 for the three time
periods and two demand cases.   Oil shale development (both TOSCO II
and modified in situ) contributes nearly 85 percent of the total
solids produced by energy development in the Basin.  Overall,
solid effluents in the Nominal case are more than four times those
in the Low Demand case.
     1 The location of energy facilities will be critical in deter-
mining total demand on the water system.   In this report, the re-
gional demands are not addressed with respect to a specific site
but rather with respect to the basin as a whole.

     2Gold, Harris, et al.  Water Requirements for Steam-Electric
Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United
States.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,
1977.For an elaboration of these potential savings, including
savings associated with minimal wet cooling, see Chapter 4, "Water
Policy Analysis," of White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the
West;  Policy Analysis Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environ-
mental Protection Agency, forthcoming.


                              960
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-------
  TABLE  11-17:   WATER EFFLUENTS FROM  ENERGY  DEVELOPMENTS
                    IN  THE  UPPER COLORADO RIVER  BASIN3
DEMAND LEVEL
AND
EFFLUENT SOURCE
Low Demand
Energy Facility
Power Plant
Gasification
Liquefaction
TOSCO II Oil Shale
Modified In Situ with
Surface Retort
Uranium Mill
Population
Total
Nominal Demand
Energy Facility
Power Plant
Gasification
Liquefaction
TOSCO II Oil Shale
Modified In Situ with
Surface Retort
Uranium Mill
Population
Total
SOLIDS
(MMtpy)
1980

3.19
0
0
0
0
3.30
NC
6.49

4.78
0
0
0
0
3.67
NC
8.45
1990

4.78
0
0
0
15.56
7.34
NC
27.68

7.96
0
0
67.75
46.68
9.54
NC
131.93
2000

4.78
1.82
0
64.75
46.68
12.84
0.01
130.88

7.96
3.64
0
258. 99
264.54
17.62
0.04
552.79
WASTEWATER
(thousand acre-ft/yr)
1980

2. 57
0
0
0
0
4.50
NC
7. 07

3.86
0
0
0
0
5.00
NC
8.86
1990

3.86
0
0
0
U
10.00
NC
13.86

6.43
0
0
8.04
U
13.00
NC
27.47
2000

3.86
0.95
0
8.04
U
17. 50
16.33
46.68

6.43
1.90
0
32. 16
U
24.00
55.85
120.34
MMtpy =  million tons per year
acre-ft/yr = acre feet per year
U = unknown
NC = not  calculated
 These data are from chapters  4-9 for the standard  size facilities and  load
factors assumed throughout che report and summarized in Section 11.1.

 Wastewater at 100 gallons per person per day,  and  500 milligrams per  liter
solids.   Population increases  are 145,840 (Low Demand), and 498,700 (Nominal)
by the year 2000.  See Section 11.4.
                                   963
-------
D.  Water-Related Impacts of Energy Development in the UCRB

 (1)  Surface Water

     The most obvious impact of energy development in the UCRB
will be the withdrawal of water to supply the energy conversion
facilities.  As noted above, basinwide water requirements for the
two levels of development could range from 248,000 to 1,338,000
acre-ft/yr by 2000 depending on the level of development and
cooling technology.  Using 1974 depletion levels, and assuming
the Water for Energy Management Team's estimate of 5.8 million
acre-ft/yr available to the Upper Basin is correct, the Upper
Basin states are entitled to approximately 2.1 million acre-ft/yr
of surface water which is not now being used in the Upper Basin.1
The energy developments postulated in our scenarios would require
between 15 and 64 percent of this water.2  In addition, water will
be required for secondary industrial and agricultural uses occur-
ring as a direct result of the energy developments, as well as
for growth occurring independent of energy development.3

     Depending on how the demands for water are divided among the
rivers in the UCRB and how reservoirs are used to regulate flow,
flow depletion could become a problem as a result of energy with-
drawals.  Table 11-18 shows requirements disaggregated to various
river basins for the year 2000.  In all cases, the total energy-
related demand is well below the average flow.  However, the de-
mands are a large fraction of typical low flows and equal or ex-
ceed record low flows in the Four Corners Area.  These water
requirements and the resulting flow reductions which could occur
during low flow periods could threaten fish and waterfowl species.
(These impacts are discussed in Section 11.5.)

     The water requirements for energy development described
above will also affect water quality.   Unless desalination is
carried out, current TDS values could increase significantly as a
result of energy development in the UCR3.   Even assuming no return
flows from energy facilities, salt concentration will increase
because of the withdrawal of water upstream of the principal


     1U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage-
ment Team.  Report on Water for Energy in the Upper Colorado
River Basin.  Denver, Colo.:  Department of the Interior, 1974.

     2This assumes wet cooling is used.  From 13 to 50 percent is
required if wet/dry cooling is used.   Alternatives for dealing
with water availability problems are discussed in:  White, Irvin L.,
et al.   Energy From the West;  Policy Analysis Report.  U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, Washington,  D.C.:  forthcoming,
Chapter 4.

     3Water for Energy Management Team.  Upper Colorado River Basin.

                               964
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                                    965
-------
sources of salt loadings.  For example, salinity increases of 2
mg/£ at Imperial Dam were projected to result from the Kaiparowits
project alone.1  If desalination projects are not carried out, in-
creases in salinity at Imperial Dam are projected to increase from
the present level of 879 mg/£ to as high as 1,250 mg/S, in the year
2000.2  This will be in violation of the limit established by the
states in response to requirements of the Federal Water Pollution
Control Act (FWPCA); hence, additional salinity control measures,
such as those authorized by the Salinity Control Act of 1974, 3
will be required.  The economic costs of damages due to increases
in salinity at Imperial Dam have been estimated at $230,000 per
mg/£ of TDS increase,4 primarily because of decreased crop produc-
tion from lands irrigated with this water.  Control of salt load-
ings through irrigation management and other on-farm measures has
been estimated at between $7,000 and $750,000 per ing/A, and de-
salination plants would cost between $100,000 and $4,000,000 per
mg/& at Imperial Dam.5

     Although the most significant water-related impacts in the
UCRB will be due to water depletions and increases in salinity,
several other impacts will also be important.  These include
municipal and industrial water supply and wastewater treatment
problems, in-stream water needs to support fish and wildlife, and
disposal of effluents from energy facilities.  Most of these im-
pacts are discussed in the site-specific chapters and Chapter 10.

(2)   Groundwater

     The quantity and quality of groundwater in the UCRB should
decrease as a consequence of energy development.  Both types of
impacts will result from withdrawals from and additions to water
in aquifer systems.


     ^.S., Department of the Interior,, Bureau of Land Management.
Final Environmental Impact Statement;  Proposed Kaiparowits Pro-
ject, 6 vols.   Salt Lake City, Utah:  Bureau of Land Management,
1976, p.  III-157.

     2Utah State University, Utah Water Research Laboratory.
Colorado River Regional Assessment Study,  Part 1:  Executive
Summary,  Basin Profile and Report Digest,  for National Commission
on Water Quality.  Logan, Utah:  Utah Water Research Laboratory,
1975, p.  26.

     3Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 1974, Pub. L.
93-320, 88 Stat. 266 (codified at 43 U.S.C.A. §§ 1571 et seq.
[Supp. 1976]).

     "*Utah Water Research Laboratory.  Colorado River Regional
Assessment Study, Part 1, p. 2.

     5 Ibid., Part 1, p. 5.

                               966
-------
     Groundwater withdrawals from aquifer systems could increase
significantly if energy resources are developed close to the
levels projected by our Low Demand scenario.  While some ground-
water withdrawals may be needed to dewater mines, most groundwater
will be used for supplying municipal and rural population needs.
Groundwater is especially attractive as a water source for domestic
supplies in a water-short area like the UCRB.  At present, about
31,000 acre-ft/yr are withdrawn for municipal supplies and about
14,000 acre-ft/yr are used for domestic supplies in rural areas.1
About 4,000 acre-ft/yr of groundwater are currently used for
cooling in power plants.

     Large-scale groundwater withdrawals could lead to both local
and regional lowering of the aquifer water levels in the immediate
vicinity of wells.  Lowered water levels could cause wells,
springs, and seeps to go dry and could result in lower base flows
in streams and rivers.  The close interrelationship between ground-
water and surface water could result in disputes over water rights
stemming from groundwater withdrawals.

     Mining may affect local groundwater systems in several ways.
Both underground and surface mines can interrupt aquifer flow,
making dewatering operations necessary.  As much as 765 square
miles (about one-quarter percent)  of the total surface area of the
UCRB may be subjected to surface mining.2  Depending on the compo-
sition of the overburden, oxidation may release contaminants to
local shallow groundwater systems.  In areas where the energy re-
source is also an aquifer, as coal strata sometimes are, the aqui-
fer will be destroyed when the resource is mined.  If the over-
burden is an aquifer, the aquifer properties may be greatly
altered when the overburden is removed and then replaced.  Reclaim-
ing surface mined lands will not generally restore the aquifer
properties.  Mixing materials may reduce porosity and permeability,
but this tendency may be offset by the disaggregation and loosening
of mata-rials during removal and replacement.  The net effect will
vary according to the geologic conditions and will have to be
evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

     Most of the groundwater quality degradation that will result
from energy development will be caused by chemical additions or
disturbance to the natural aquifer systems.  Shallow aquifers may


     ^.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Westwide Study Report on Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western
States.   Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1975,
p. 51.

     2Land use for surface mining is discussed in detail in Section
11.5 of this chapter and Chapter 7 of White, Irvin L., et al.
Energy From the West:  Policy Analysis Report.  Washington, D.C.:
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.

                               967
-------
be polluted locally by mines, by energy conversion facilities,
and by facilities associated with population growth.  Deep aqui-
fers would generally be polluted only where deep-well injection
is used as a means of liquid waste disposal.

     Contaminated water from energy conversion facilities may enter
groundwater systems directly as a result of seepage of liquid
wastes and indirectly from leaching of solid waste from disposal
sites.  The types of pollutants will vary from facility to facil-
ity, depending on the type of conversion process and the composi-
tion and quantity of waste generated.  Estimates of the amount of
waste generated for the conversion processes considered are pre-
sented in Table 11-17.

     In most places in the UCRB, the bedrock between the surface
and the water table is mostly sandstone and shales which can fil-
ter and absorb contaminated seepage.  In addition, the water table
in bedrock aquifers is quite deep, which also reduces the chances
for contamination.  In alluvial aquifers, the unconsolidated sand,
gravel, and clay can similarly filter and absorb contaminants.

     Population growth associated with the projected energy devel-
opment of the scenario will have two principal impacts on ground-
water systems:  the withdrawals required for municipal and domes-
tic supplies, and the liquid and solid waste disposal methods
used.   If large towns develop over small or low-permeability aqui-
fers,  water levels may decline as a result of excessive withdrawal.
Since the soils in much of the UCRB are thin, the effluent from
septic tank drainfields (where used) may not be fully renovated,
and partially-treated effluent may seep into local groundwater.
Pollutants leached from municipal solid waste disposal sites could
also contaminate shallow aquifers, but the arid climate over most
of the basin lessens the potential seriousness of this problem.

11.3.3  Impacts in the Upper Missouri Fiver Basin

A.  Existing Conditions

(1)  Surface Water

     Surface water is available from several sources in the UMRB.
As shown in Figure 11-13,  the major subbasins are the Upper
Missouri, Yellowstone, Western Dakota Tributaries, and Eastern
Dakota Tributaries.  The major tributaries to the Missouri are the
Yellowstone, Powder, Little Missouri, Cheyenne, Belle Fourche, and
James Rivers.  Flows are generally highest in the western part of


     Problems and issues related to holding ponds disposal of
effluents are discussed in Chapter 5 of White, Irvin L., et al.
Energy From the West:  Policy Analysis Report.  Washington, D.C.:
U.S.,  Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.

                               968
-------
             t
                  LEGEND
            BASIN BOUNDARY—^^^^
         SUBBASIN BOUNDARY	.	-,s^~
STATE OR NATIONAL BOUNDARY	
                                                          MISSOURI
         SUBBAS/NS
1. UPPER MISSOURI RIVER  TRIBUTARIES
2. YELLOWSTONE  RIVER
3. WESTERN DAKOTA  TRIBUTARIES
4. EASTERN  DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES
5. PLATTE-NIOBRARA RIVERS
6. MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES
7. KANSAS RIVER
8. LOWER MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES
     FIGURE  11-13:   SUBBASINS OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN
                                    969
-------
the basin as a result of melting snow and ice in the spring, and
can also be periodically high in any part of the basin as a result
of prolonged rainfall or thunderstorms.

     Major river flows in the Fort Union Coal Region of the UMRB
are shown in Table 11-19.  The 8.8 million acre-ft/yr in the
Yellowstone contributes about half the total flow into the
Missouri above Lake Sakakawea.  Water supply and use in the Mon-
tana and Wyoming portions of the UMRB are shown in Table 11-20
for 1975.  Total depletions are only 16 percent of the 20 million
acre-ft/yr available in Montana and 19 percent of the nearly 8
million acre-ft/yr available in Wyoming.,  Data on categories of
depletions for the Fort Union region of the UMRB in North Dakota
are not available.

     The total average depletion in the UMRB is about 6.5 million
acre-ft/yr including reservoir evaporation above Sioux City, Iowa.1
The undepleted flow at that point is approximately 28.3 million
acre-ft/yr of which 19 million acre-ft/yr are estimated to be the
practical limit for depletions.2  Hence, at present, an additional
12.5 million acre-ft/yr are apparently available for use.

     Water quality in the UMRB is generally good.  Table 11-21
gives concentrations of TDS at selected locations in the Fort
Union Coal Region.  The Missouri River at Bismarck and the Yellow-
stone River at its mouth both have TDS concentrations of less than
450 mg/£, and only the Powder River has a TDS concentration much
greater than that considered fresh by the USGS classification
system.

     The allocation of water rights and the legal political prob-
lems surrounding them are important in determining whether a por-
tion of the unused water of the Yellowstone and other rivers in
the UMRB can be used for energy purposes.3
     Northern Great Plains Resources Program.  Water Work Group
Report.  Billings, Mont.:  U.S., Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Reclamation, 1974, p. 16.

     2U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage-
ment Team.  Report on Water for Energy in the Northern Great
Plains Area with Emphasis on the Yellowitone River Basin.Denver,
Colo.:  Department of the Interior, 1975, p. VII-6.

     3These problems and associated issues are discussed in Chap-
ter 4 of White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West:  Policy
Analysis Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U,. S., Environmental Protec-
tion Agency, forthcoming.

                               970
-------
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                                                       971
-------
           TABLE 11-20:
WATER SUPPLY AND USE IN THE
UPPER MISSOURI RIVER BASIN
(1,000 acre-feet per year)

TOTAL WATER SUPPLY &
f\
Estimated depletions
Irrigation
Municipal and
industrial
Minerals and mining
Thermal electric
Other
Reservoir -evaporation
Total depletions
MONTANA
20,141

2,280

99
10
1
204
603
3,197
WYOMING
7,884

1,245

29
55
3

172
1,504
         Source:  U.S., Department of the Interior,
         Bureau of Reclamation.  Westwide Study Report
         on Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western
         States.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing
         Office, 1975, pp. 229, 300, 411, 412.

          Water supply and depletion estimates are only
         for the Upper Missouri portion of the states.
         The states include portions of other river
         basins as well.
     Interstate compacts exist for two rivers in the UMRB important
for energy resource development:  the Yellowstone and the Belle
Fourche.   The Belle Fourche River Compact1 apportions 90 percent
of the unappropriated water of the river to South Dakota and 10
percent to Wyoming.  The Yellowstone River Compact2 apportions
the waters of the Yellowstone and its tributaries between Montana
and Wyoming as follows:

                                           PERCENT TO:
TRIBUTARY
Clarks Fork
Bighorn
Tongue
Powder
WYOMING
60
80
40
42
MONTANA
40
20
60
58
     1 Belle Fourche River Compact of 1943, 58 Stat. 94  (1944)

     2Yellowstone River Compact of I960, 65 Stat. 663  (1953.).
                               972
-------
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                                                973
-------
     Based on these allocations and estimates of annual flow and
present consumption on the Belle Fourche and Yellowstone, estimates
have been made of unappropriated flow available to the states in-
volved.  These are shown in Table 11-22.  The flow in the Yellow-
stone basin available to Wyoming is estimated at 2.44 million acre-
ft/yr; that available to Montana is estimated at 1 million acre-
ft/yr.

(2)  Groundwater

     Aquifers in the UMRB include both deep and shallow aquifers
in the bedrock as well as shallow aquifers in the alluvium above
the bedrock.  A total of about 860 million acre-ft of water is
stored in these aquifers at a depth of less than 1,000 feet.1
The aquifers most likely to affect or be affected by our hypothe-
sized energy developments are the Madison (which extends to several
thousand feet in depth), several aquifers in the Fort Union Coal
formation (which are less than a hundred feet deep), and alluvial
aquifers associated with the major rivers and streams.  The shallow
bedrock and alluvial aquifers are not productive enough to be con-
sidered as potential sources of water for energy facilities,2 but
they will probably be used extensively to supply water for the
associated population growth.  If groundwater is used to help
meet the demands of the energy conversion facilities, the Madison
aquifer is the most likely source.

     The Madison aquifer is presently being studied as a possible
water source for energy developments, although its hydrogeology
is not completely understood.3  Some wells into the aquifer yield
     Missouri Basin Inter-Agency Committee.  The Missouri  River
Basin Comprehensive Framework Study.  Denver, Colo.:  U.S.,
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management,  1971,
Vol. 1, p. 63.

     2Swenson, Frank A.  "Potential of Madison Group and Associ-
ated Rocks to Supply Industrial Water Needs, Powder River Basin,
Wyoming and Montana," in Hadley, R.F., and David T. Snow, eds.
Water Resources Problems Related to Mining.  American Water Re-
sources Association Proceedings, Vol. 18  (1974),p~.212.

     3Swenson, Frank A.  Possible Development of Water  from
Madison Group and Associated Rock in"~P"owder River Basin, Montana-
Wyoming .  Denver, Colo.:  Northern Great  Plains Resources Program,
1974.

                               974
-------
CN
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                              975
-------
more than 10,000 gpm, but most yield less than 1,000 gpm.l  The
Madison is recharged at high elevations where the limestone forming
the aquifer crops out.  High elevation rainfall and snowmelt are
the primary sources of the water.  Discharge from the Madison is
to wells and, via leakage, into shallower aquifers.  The quality
of water in the Madison, as measured by TDS, ranges from less than
500 mg/X, near the recharge areas in the Powder River Basin to more
than 4,000 mg/£ near the Montana-North Dakota line.2  In the
Williston Basin area, where the water has been in the aquifer much
longer, it is moderately to very saline according to the USGS
classification system (3,000-10,000 mg/.'i) , and therefore not as
likely to be used for energy facilities in the lignite fields of
western North Dakota.  Existing uses of Madison groundwater are
for municipal, industrial, domestic, stock, and oil field water-
flood purposes.3

     Aquifers in the Fort Union Formation occur in both sandstone
beds and coal seams.  They are recharged from precipitation in high
elevation areas and from surface streams.  Most of these aquifers
are at or near the water table depth.  Water quality in F'ort Union
aquifers varies depending on rock composition and how long the
water has been in the aquifer.  Existing uses are primarily for
rural domestic supplies and stock watering.

     Alluvial aquifers are located below major rivers and streams
in the basin.  The total amount of water stored in these aquifers
is not known, but the productivity of some is sufficient to supply
irrigation wells that produce over 1,000 gpm.  Water quality in
alluvial aquifers is usually good unless recharge is from lower
bedrock aquifers.  Existing uses include supplying water for muni-
cipal, domestic, stock,  and irrigation needs.

     Groundwater use in the UMRB is limited by the large number of
wells usually needed to produce high yields, the low permeability
of the aquifers which limits the flow per well, and the lack of
sufficient knowledge on the occurrence, location, and properties
of the aquifers.
     ^.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey.  Plan
of Study of the Hydrology of the Madison Limestone and Associated
Rocks in Parts of Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota,
and Wyoming,Open-File Report 75-631.Denver,Colo.:Geological
Survey, 1975, p. 3.

     2Swenson, Frank A.  Possible Development of Water from
Madison Group and Associated Rock in~Powder River Basin, Montana-
Wyoming.  Denver, Colo.:  Northern Great Plains Resources Program,
1974, p. 3.                                 ,

     3U.S. Geological Survey.  Hydrology of Madison Limestone.

                               976
-------
B.  Water Requirements

     The water requirements for energy development in the UMRB
have been calculated for the two levels of energy development
postulated in Section 11.1.  These requirements are shown in Table
11-23.  Assuming high wet cooling, requirements for power plants
and slurry pipelines are at least twice those of any other facil-
ity.  For the Low Demand case, total basinwide requirements by
the year 2000 could reach almost 900,000 acre-ft/yr, assuming
high wet cooling.  If intermediate wet cooling is used by all con-
version facilities, regional consumption in the UMRB for the Low
Demand case in the year 2000 could be reduced by about 320,000 to
375,000 acre-ft.1  This is about a 40 percent reduction in water
demand.  Using minimal wet cooling could reduce requirements even
further but at a higher economic cost.2

     Water requirements resulting from the increases in population
associated with the three levels of development are shown in Table
11-24.  Assuming a daily consumption of 150 gallons per person,
these water requirements do not exceed 87,000 acre-ft/yr in the
Low Demand case, which is about 10 percent of that required for
energy facilities.

     Total increased water requirements for energy development and
related population increases in the UMRB in the year 2000 for the
two levels of development are:  Low Demand case, 969,000 acre-ft/yr
and Nominal Demand case, 1,344,000 acre-ft/yr with high wet cooling.
If intermediate wet cooling is used, water requirements could be
reduced to 594,000 acre-ft/yr in the Low Demand case and 878,000
acre-ft/yr in the Nominal Demand case.

C.  Water Effluents

     Solid effluents and the quantity of wastewater produced by
the energy facilities are given in Table 11-25 for the three time
periods and two demand cases.  For the Low Demand case, solid ef-
fluents range from 5 (in 1980) to 39  (in 2000) million tons per
year  (MMtpy).  The quantity of wastewater generated ranges from
10  (in 1980)  to 61 (in 2000) thousand acre-ft/yr; this represents
less than 10 percent of the water requirements.
            Harris, et al.  Water Requirements for Steam-Electric
Power Generation and Synthetic Fuel Plants in the Western United
States.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,
1977.

     2Analyses of the reduced water requirements of minimum wet
cooling are presented in the site-specific chapters (7,8, and 9).
These chapters should be referred to for additional details for
facilities in the UMRB.

                               977
-------
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-------
D.  Water Related Impacts of Energy Development in the Upper
    Missouri River Basin

(1)  Surface Water

     The water requirements for energy development through the
year 2000, identified above, are 5 to 10 percent of the 12.5
million acre-ft estimated to be available for use in the UMRB.
Because of the limited data on water availability and energy re-
quirements for individual rivers in the UMRB, estimates cannot be
made of the impacts that energy development might have on parti-
cular rivers, although demands on the Yellowstone from Powder
River coal development probably will be substantial.  However,
the overall impact on the basin from energy developments is not
expected to be as serious as in the UCRB.

     However, water depletions in the UMRB may reduce the length
of the navigation season in the Lower Missouri.  One study has
estimated that if an additional 10 million acre-ft/yr were with-
drawn from UMRB, this season would drop from a nominal 8 months
to zero for 11 of the next 75 years.1   If an additional 600,000
acre-ft/yr are withdrawn (approximately the amount required in
our Low Demand, intermediate wet cooling case), the season would
drop to zero for only one of the next 75 years.2

     Much of the Fort Union Coal Region is in areas not served by
nearby large streams; thus, a regional water system may be required
to service a large part of the proposed development.3  If a re-
gional water supply system is developed, there will be an effect
on the river as well as on the land area disturbed by the construc-
tion.  The magnitude of the effect will be related to intake de-
sign considerations and the amount of water withdrawn.

     Water quality impacts due to energy development in the UMRB
have been estimated in other studies for levels of development
similar to those assumed here and found to be small.  TDS concen-
tration increases in the Missouri River at Bismarck were estimated

     ^.S., Army, Corps of Engineers, Missouri River Division,
Reservoir Control Center.  Missouri River Main Stem Reservoirs
Long Range Regulation Studies, Series 1-74.   Omaha, Nebr.:  Corps
of Engineers, 1974, p. 23.

     2U.S., Department of the Interior, Water for Energy Manage-
ment Team.  Report on Water for Energy in the Northern Great
Plains Area with Emphasis on the Yellowstone River Basin.   Denver,
Colo.:  Department of the Interior, 1975, p. V-21.

     3U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation.
Appraisal Report on Montana-Wyoming Aqueduct.  Billings, Mont.:
Bureau of Reclamation, 1974.

                               981
-------
to be from 13 mg/& to 454 mg/Jl.1  Changes in TDS concentrations in
tributaries were highly variable, with increases predicted in some
and decreases in others.  Both the amount of change and direction
depend on assumptions concerning level and type of development and
the amount and quality of return flows to the streams.

     Although the most significant water-related impacts in the
UMRB will be due to water depletions and changes in water quality,
a number of additional impacts may also be important.  These in-
clude municipal and industrial water supply and wastewater treat-
ment problems, in-stream water needs to support fish and wildlife,
and disposal of effluents from energy facilities.  Most of these
impacts are discussed in the site-specific chapters and Chapter 10.

(2)  Groundwater

     Groundwater withdrawals could be increased by the projected
energy resource development scenario.  Some withdrawals will be
for mine dewatering operations, but most withdrawals will be for
consumption.  Yield from shallow aquifers is not sufficient to
meet the water needs of the energy conversion facilities.2  However,
groundwater will probably make significant contributions to water
supply for the associated population growth.  Large-scale with-
drawals could result in lowering of the aquifers' water levels in
the vicinity of wells, which if large relative to the recharge
rate, could cause wells, springs, and seeps to go dry, and lower
base flows in streams and rivers.

     The Madison aquifer will probably be used if groundwater is
needed for energy facilities.  The Madison may be able to supply
a significant fraction of the water required by some facilities,
but groundwater mining may occur as a result.3  This has occurred


     1 Northern Great Plains Resources Program.  Water Work Group
Repqrt.  Billings, Mont.:  U.S., Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Reclamation, 1974, p. 66.

     2Swenson, Frank A.   "Potential of Madison Group and Associ-
ated Rocks to Supply Industrial Water Needs, Powder River Basin,
Wyoming and Montana," in Hadley, R.F., and David T. Snow, eds.
Water Resources Problems Related to Mining.   American Water Re-
sources Association Proceedings, Vol. 18 (1974), p. 212.

     3Swenson, Frank A.   Possible Development of Water from
Madison Group and Associated Rock in Powder River Basin, Montana-
Wyoming.  Denver, Colo.:  Northern Great Plains Resources Pro-
gram,1974; U.S.,, Department of the Interior,  Geological Survey.
Plan of Study of the Hydrology of the Madison Limestone and Asso-
ciated Rocks in Parts of Montana, Nebraska,  North Dakota, South
Dakota, and Wyoming, Open-File Report 75-631.   Denver, Colo.:
Geological Survey, 1975.

                               982
-------
in the vicinity of Midwest, Wyoming, where about 12-14 wells were
drilled for waterflood supplies for oil field secondary recovery.
This development caused a decline of 3,000 feet in the water levels
in wells, with an area of influence extending under six townships.1
Mining also may affect local groundwater systems by interrupting
or changing aquifer flow and by introducing•effluents into ground-
water aquifers.

     Mining and energy conversion facility effects on groundwater
systems in the UMRB will be similar to those described earlier for
the UCRB.  However, a number of possible impacts cannot be ade-
quately assessed because of a lack of detailed knowledge about
UMRB groundwater.  Data on both the rate of movement of ground-
water and the fate and effects of pollutants in groundwater systems
are needed.2  Estimates of the amount of waste generated for the
conversion processes have been summarized in Table 11-25.  Most
of the residuals will be produced by the power plants and gasifi-
cation facilities.3

11.3.4  Summary of Regional Water Impacts

A.  Upper Colorado River Basin

     In the UCRB, water demands for energy uses for the year 2000
will be 15 to 64 percent of presently unallocated water for the
two levels of energy development being considered.  If intermediate
wet cooling is used for power plants and coal synfuel facilities,
this demand can be reduced by about 60,000 acre-ft (20 percent
reduction) in the Low Demand case and about 91,000 acre-ft (about
7 percent) in the Nominal case.

     Meeting these water requirements will increase the salinity
of the Colorado even if no pollutants are discharged from the
     ^wenson, Frank A.  "Potential of Madison Group and Associ-
ated Rocks to Supply Industrial Water Needs, Powder River Basin,
Wyoming and Montana," in Hadley, R.F., and David T. Snow, eds.
Water Resources Problems Related to Mining.  American Water Re-
sources Association Proceedings, Vol. 18,(1974) , p~. 217.

     2Northern Great Plains Resources Program, Water Work Group,
Groundwater Subgroup.  Shallow Ground Water in Selected Areas in
the Fort Union Coal Region, Open-File Report 74-48.  Helena,
Mont.:  U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey, 1974,
p. 13.

     3Problems and issues related to holding ponds disposal of
effluents are discussed in Chapter 5 of White, Irvin L., et al.
Energy From the West:  Policy Analysis Report.  Washington, D.C.:
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency,forthcoming.

                               983
-------
facilities.  This will occur because water consumption by energy
resource facilities will concentrate salt levels.

     Groundwater and surface water must be considered parts of a
single resource system if water management is to be well-informed.
Groundwater resources will be used primarily for municipalities,
and both municipal withdrawals and possible groundwater pollution
from sewage disposal will affect the resource.  An additional
groundwater impact may occur as a result, of mine dewatering.

B.  Upper Missouri River Basin

     Impacts on the UMRB due to energy development will not be as
serious as those in the UCRB, primarily because considerably more
water is available in the Missouri.  Based on regionwide figures,
energy facilities will require 8 to 11 percent of the water avail-
able in the year 2000 for the two demand scenarios considered.
If intermediate wet cooling is used, demand could be reduced about
375,000 acre-ft (about 40 percent reduction)  for the Low Demand
case in the year 2000.  In the Nominal case,  demands could be
reduced about 465,000 acre-ft (35 percent) by the year 2000.

     The navigation season on the Lower Missouri will be reduced
as a result of depletions for energy facilities in the Upper Basin.
Depletions of 600,000 acre-ft/yr would result in one of the next
75 years having no navigation season; depletions of 10 million
acre-ft/yr would result in 11 of the next 75 years having no navi-
gation season.

     Groundwater from the Madison aquifer may be used to supple-
ment surface water for energy facilities in the UMRB.  Because of
low porosity in the aquifer, municipal users of this groundwater
source may be affected.  Drilling deeper wells or finding supple-
mental municipal sources may be necessary.  However, these assess-
ments are tentative because of insufficient information about
groundwater resources in the basin.

11.4  SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS

11.4.1  Introduction

     In this section, social and economic impacts of western energy
development are analyzed and discussed for the western region and,
in some aspects, for the nation as a whole.  Population impacts
are considered first, primarily in terms of net population changes
expected in the West as a result of each of the two levels of
energy resource development being examined.  Following is an eco-
nomic and fiscal analysis which estimates changes in personal in-
come, public services, and economic structure in the western region.
Social and cultural effects and political and governmental impacts
are discussed next, followed by an analysis of impacts on the
availability of personnel, materials and equipment, and capital.

                               984
-------
11.4.2  Population Impacts

     This section analyzes the large-scale, regionwide population
changes due to western energy developments in contrast to the site-
specific analyses reported in Chapters 4-9.  For both the Nominal
case and Low Demand case of the SRI model described in Section 1
of this chapter, manpower requirements for construction and opera-
tion were obtained from the Bechtel Energy Supply Planning Model.1
Average (rather than peak) construction employment was used for
each of the energy facilities that are projected to be built in
the various time periods.  The population changes are discussed
first for the entire eight-state area and then for selected sub-
regions where energy development is expected to be concentrated.

A.  Regionwide

     One of the most important factors that will influence popula-
tion change is the number and location of the necessary personnel.
These can be considered as two specific questions:  how many of
the required workers will be available locally, and where will
the others come from?  A greater availability of local workers
will decrease the need for in-migration.

     Limited information on the West indicates that about 46 per-
cent of the energy construction workforce is found locally in the
Four Corners states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah), and
about 34 percent locally in the Northern Great Plains states
(Montana,  North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming).2  In the
future, as energy development increases,  more workers are likely
to move into the area from outside the West, and proportionately
fewer workers will probably be available from within the region.
In the absence of other data, the available estimate of 66 percent
net in-migration to Northern Great Plains localities and 54 per-
cent to local areas in the Four Corners states are used here.3

     Employment in energy development of in-migrants to an area
generally induces secondary employment in other industries and,
therefore, additional population in families.  Table 11-26 lists
the employment multiplier for operation,  which represents the
number of new jobs in other industries induced by one energy job,
and the population multiplier, which represents family size or


     ^arrasso, M., et al.  The Energy Supply Planning Model.
San Francisco, Calif.:  Bechtel Corporation, 1975.

     2Mountain West Research.  Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report.  Washington, D.C.:  Old West Regional Commission, 1976,
pp. 14-17.

     3 Ibid.  These figures appear to balance future in-migration
to the region with movements within and among the western states.

                               985
-------
       TABLE 11-26:
EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION MULTIPLIERS
FOR OPERATION PHASE

YEAR
1980
1.985
1990
2000
EMPLOYMENT
MULTIPLIER
0.4
0. 8
0.8
1.0
POPULATION
MULTIPLIER
3
3
3
3
the number of people per employee.  The employment and population
multipliers for the construction phase of a facility were combined
for simplicity into a single figure Of 2.0, which may underesti-
mate the population impacts of construction in some areas.

     Population impacts of energy facility construction and opera-
tion for the SRI Nominal and Low Demand cases were estimated with
an economic base model methodology, using the multipliers above.1
Construction-related, operation-related,  and overall population
increases for the eight-state region are included in Table 11-27.
The estimated trend shows that in both the Nominal and Low Demand
cases, the greatest population gains will occur during the 1990's.
An overall regional addition of about 660,000 people is likely by
2000 in the Low Demand scenario.   Construction employment is rela-
tively more important during the late 1970"s and the 1990's when
the rate of energy development is projected to be the greatest.
Although the population increases are not large on a regionwide
scale (less than a seven percent increase over the 1975 population
of 9,551,000 for the Low Demand case in 2000), the impacts will
not be evenly distributed.  In fact, the parts of the West likely
to receive the greatest energy-related population increases are
those with the smallest current populations, not the metropolitan
areas which account for about half of the region's present popula-
tion.
     xThis methodology is commonly used to assess energy develop-
ment impacts.  See Crawford, A.B., H.H. Fullerton, and W.C. Lewis.
Socio-Economic Impact Study of Oil Shale Development in the Uintah
    *f
    il<
Basin, for White River Shale Project.   Providence, Utah:  Western
Environmental Associates, 1975, pp.  147-58; Stenehjem, Erik J.
Forecasting the Local Economic Impacts of Energy Resource Develop-
ment;  A Methodological Approach, ANL/AA-3.
Argonne National Laboratory, 1975.
                        Argonne, 111,
                              986
-------
      TABLE 11-27:
POPULATION INCREASES IN WESTERN STATES
AFTER 1975 DUE TO ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
YEAR
1980
1985
1990
2000
SRI
CASE
Nominal
Low Demand
Nominal
Low Demand
Nominal
Low Demand
Nominal
Low Demand
CONSTRUCTION-
RELATED3
38,900
31,600
38,900
32,400
39,500
20,900
386,500
187,300
OPERATION-
RELATED
59,600
45, 000
179,400
118,200
241,400
157,200
861,100
474,600
OVERALL
INCREASE
98,500
76,700
218,300
150,600
280,900
178,100
1,247,600
661,900
    SRI = Stanford Research Institute

    3.
     Based on the average annual construction employment for
    the construction period of each facility and the pro-
    jected number of facilities.
B.  Subregional

     Disaggregation of the energy supply areas provides an analy-
sis of subregional impacts on state and substate areas  (Table 11-
28).  Considerable error is potentially built into this procedure,
even on the state level; for example, potential development in
South Dakota and Arizona is approximated as zero.  County-level
projections appear to include many reasonable locations within
states but occasionally concentrate resource development in too
few areas.  The substate areas where populations vary most between
the two levels of development are those where oil shale resources
are located.

     Aggregating the data in Table 11-28 by state, and separating
construction and operation-based population, illustrates the dis-
tribution of impacts among the western states (Table 11-29).
Overall, the Low Demand case would result in a population increase
47 percent below that of the Nominal case, with the greatest dif-
ference in Utah (89 percent lower) and in Colorado (73 percent
lower) because of differences in oil shale production between the
two cases.  The largest absolute and relative growth is expected
in the coal areas of the Northern Great Plains states of Montana,
North Dakota, and Wyoming, where operation-related population
increases of 19.8 percent, 17.9 percent, and 27.4 percent, respec-
tively, are projected due to Low Demand levels of energy development
                               987
-------
TABLE  11-28:
PERMANENT  POPULATION ADDITIONS AFTER 1975
FOR ENERGY AREAS OF SIX WESTERN STATES
COLORADO
GARFIELD, MESA, AND
RIO BLANCO COUNTIES ASEA
YEAR
1980
1985
1990
2000
NOMINAL CASE
1,800
17,300
34,600
240,800
LOW DEMAND CASE
0
0
7,500
55,100
HUERFANO COUNTY AREA
NOMINAL CASE LOW DEMAND CASE
0
11,600
11,603
12,700
3,600
9,300
11,200
12,700
UTAH
KANE AND GARFIELD
COUNTIES AREA
YEAR
1980
1985
1990
2000
NOMINAL CASE
6,400
10,800
12,200
12,800
LOW DEMAND CASE
2,200
2,900
2,900
3,100
UINTAH AND GRAND
COUNT IBS 'AREA
NOMINAL CASE
0
600
500
27,000
LOW DEMAND CASE
0
0
0
2,100
                         NEW MEXICO
NORTHWESTERN AREA
(SAN JUAN, MCKINLEY, AND
VALENCIA COUNTIES)
YEAR
S NOMINAL CASE LOW DEMAND CASE
SOUTHEASTERN AREA
(LEA, EDDY, ROOSEVELT , AND
CHAVES COUNTIES)
NOMINAL CASE | LOW DEMAND CASE
1980
1985
1990
2000
6,300
14,600
20,600
54,200
3,700
11,400
15,200
35,700
9,930
12,900
6,900
0
8,200
10,500
4,800
0
MONTANA
BIG HORN, ROSEBUD, AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES AREA



YEAR
1980
1985
1990
2000
NOMINAL CASE
11,600
5 3,400
74,300
215, 100
LOW DEMAND CASE
10 ,400
38,100
48 ,900
149,400
1
WYOMING
CAMPBELL COUNTY AREA
YEAR
1980
1985
1990
2000
NOMINAL CASE
14,200
25,000
32,200 1
81,100
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING
(JOHNSON, SHERIDAN, CONVERSE,
NATRONA, CARBON, FREMONT, AND
SWEETWATER COUNTIES)
LOW DEMAND CASE NOMINAL CASE
8,800
19 ,800
26,300
52,300
2,400
10.0CO
12, SCO
68,900
LOW DEMAND CASE
900
7,200
10,200
50,300

WEST CENTRAL AREA
(DUNN, MCLEAN, MERCER, AND
OLIVER COUNTIES)
YEAR
1980
1985
1990
2000
NOMINAL CASE
7,000
14,000
21,400
84,600
LOW DEMAND CASE
7,000
14,500
23,600
52,400
SOUTHWESTERN AREA
(BILLINGS, BOWMAN, HETHINGER,
MCKEN3IE, SLOPE, STARK, AND
WILLIAMS COUNTIES)
NOMINAL CASE ! LOW DEMAND
CASE
o i o
4,500 j 4,600
13,800 | 4,600
61,700 i 61,500
                            988
-------
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-------
     A comparison of the energy-related population growth projected
here with a set of projections for the same period based on long-
term trends made by the Department of Commerce's Office of Business
Economics (now the Bureau of Economic Analysis) and the Department
of Agriculture's Economic Research Service (OBERS projections)
gives an indication of the relative magnitude of energy-related
impacts  (Table 11-30).l   The OBERS projections merely extend past
trends into the future,  with the result that:  the out-migration
in the Northern Great Plains is expected to continue; such rapidly
growing metropolitan areas as Denver, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and
Albuquerque are projected to continue growing; and mining activity
in the West is expected to continue the trend experienced through
about 1970.   This involves very slow growth when compared with
current activity.  Because of recent events,  which have broken
some seemingly long-term trends, the actual population and eco-
nomic activity levels in the West through 1975 show the OBERS
projections to be large underestimates.2  Since energy develop-
ment is the major impetus for reversal of the trends in the
Northern Great Plains states, and is a considerable stimulus in
the Four Corners states, the OBERS projections can be assumed to
be the likely state of the western region in the absence of energy
development.  Thus, the greatest impact from energy development
will be in those states which were expected to continue to lose
population  (generally the Northern Great Plains), whereas the
smallest impact will be in those states where other growth was
projected (the Four Corners states).

     To summarize, the population impacts from western energy
developments will not be large regionwide (at most a 13 percent
increase in the Nominal case through 2000).   However, these devel-
opments will largely take place far from the metropolitan areas
and will impact small towns and rural areas most.   In some areas,
a 10-fold population increase by 2000 is possible under conditions
similar to the levels of development considered here.  Examples of
effects in these areas are included in the site-specific analyses
of chapters 4-9.


     ^.S.,  Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
and Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.  197J!
OBERS Projections:  Economic Activity in the U.S., Vol. 4:  States,
for the U.S. Water Resources Council.  Washington, D.C.:  Govern-
ment Printing Office, 1974.

     2U.S.,  Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Regional Economic Analysis Division.  "Tracking the BEA State
Economic Projections."  Survey of Current Business, Vol. 56
(April 1976), pp. 22-29.  For example, Montana, North Dakota,
South Dakota, and Wyoming have grown in population in contrast
to projected steady declines.  New Mexico is nearing its projected
population for the year 2000; all other states in the region also
are well above the estimates.

                                990
-------
 TABLE 11-30:
COMPARISON  OF  POPULATION  INCREASES FOR LOW
DEMAND  CASE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT WITH OBERS
POPULATION  PROJECTIONS, 1980-2000
STATE
Colorado
New Mexico
Utah
Montana
North
Dakota
Wyoming
Arizona0
South
Dakota0
YEAR
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
ENERGY- RELATED
POPULATION
INCREASE3
4,000
22,600
97,400
24,800
20,900
39,100
4,900
2,900
9,300
15,300
51,100
206,900
13,200
40,000
175,300
14,400
40,500
133,800


OBERS
PROJECTION11
2,586,100
2,889,900
3,134,100
1,054,900
1,131,200
1,180,400
1,160,100
1,309,600
1,412,100
669,700
664,500
656,400
578,700
563,400
545,200
330,900
334,000
333,400
2,225,900
2,700,900
3,065,500
654,500
647,500
637,000
ENERGY-RELATED
INCREASE AS A
PERCENTAGE OF
OBERS PROJECTION
0.2
0.8
3.1
2.4
1.8
3.3
0.4
0.2
0.6
2.3
7.6
30.1
2.3
7.0
32.1
4.3
12.1
40.1


ACTUAL 1975
POPULATION
2,534,000
1,147,000
1,206,000
748,000
635,000
374,000
2,224,000
683,000
 Operation plus construction phases;  from Table 11-29.
 Source:  U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis  and Depart-
ment of Agriculture,  Economic Research Service.  1972 OBERS Projections:  Eco-
nomic Activity in the U.S., Vol.  4:
Council.  Washington, D.C.:
                States,  for the U.S. Water Resources
         Government Printing Office, 1974.
cArizona and South Dakota were not expected to be significantly impacted
directly by the levels of energy development analyzed.  See Section 11.1.
                                   991
-------
11.4.3  Economic Impacts

A.  Personal Income

     New income will be generated in the region because of job
opportunities for both newcomers and current residents.  Based on
the population increases shown in Table 11-30 and income data for
workers in communities with energy development,1 changes to states'
aggregate personal incomes and per capita income for the Low De-
mand case energy development can be estimated (Table 11-31).

     According to these projections, energy development is expec-
ted to increase total income in the six-state area by about 16
percent2 over the 25-year period, an absolute increase from $35.8
to $41.4 billion per year.   Further, most of the increase would
occur during the 1990's, corresponding to the most intensive
energy development.  Thus, energy development alone would induce
an annual growth rate of income of 1.06 percent during that decade.

     On the state level, Wyoming would experience the greatest
relative gain in aggregate personal income (+51.9 percent over
the quarter-century), and Utah would experience the least  (+1.4
percent).   By the per capita measure, Montana would make the
greatest absolute gain  ($630 per year),, and Utah would have the
least ($30 per year).4  The only change in rank order on the basis
of per capita incomes will occur in the 1990's when Wyoming is
expected to surpass Colorado.

     These increases in per capita income would be due in large
part to construction because construction labor generally is paid
more than operational labor.  In fact, in three states (North
Dakota, Wyoming, and Colorado) current per capita incomes are
higher than the average assumed for new operation workers and their
families ($5,660).  This is because of current construction and
other high-wage occupations.  High agricultural income in 1969,


     fountain West Research.  Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report.  Washington, D.C.:  Old West Regional Commission, 1976,
p. 50.

     2An annual growth rate of 0.5 percent (compound).  This is
in addition to income growth from other sources, such as produc-
tivity gains and national trends.

     3The 1975 aggregate income value of $35.8 billion per year
plus $5.6 billion expected increase by 2000 from Table 11-31 gives
the total of $41.4 billion per year.

     "Although not calculated bf>'e, South Dakota and Arizona will
experience the least new energ-  development of the eight states
studied and the smallest income gains from new energy developments.

                               992
-------
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-------
the year of census data collection, caused some problems with
income comparisons.  Thus, incomes in some areas may slip to about
current levels when energy-related construction diminishes.

B.  Current Economic Structure

     The economic structures of the eight states vary considerably,
with agriculture dominating in the Northern Great Plains and
tourist-related service activities dominating in the Four Corners
states (Table 11-32).  Manufacturing activities are less important
in the region than nationally, and federal government employment
is greater.  Although accounting for only a small proportion of
income compared to other sectors, mining and energy development
income is particularly important in Wyoming, New Mexico, Arizona,
and Utah.

     The energy resource areas within the region are also the areas
with the greatest current agricultural activities.1   This suggests
that the land-use, water-use, employment, and income impacts of
energy resource development will fall disproportionately on agri-
culture.   However, employment impacts are difficult to predict
since employment in agriculture has been declining.   Furthermore,
energy development may hold and/or bring back young people who
have been moving out of the region, in addition to bringing new
in-migration.   Agricultural income has been increasing, although
employment on farms is declining.  The relative economic importance
of agriculture is better indicated by total farm income (as shown
in Table 11-32)  than by employment trends.

C.  Secondary Industrial Impacts2

     There are two general types of secondary industrial effects
from energy development:  (1) the attraction of large industries
directly linked to energy facilities, such as plants to process
by-products of coal gasification plants; and (2)  local and re-
gional service industries that respond to population growth to
serve residential and business customers.

     Linked industries may be classified as upstream (or supplier
firms) and downstream (or user firms).  Upstream industries are
those that supply inputs to an industry, such as equipment


     1 Detailed breakdowns of income by industry and local area
can be found in U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis.  "Local Area Personal Income,."  Survey of Current Busi-
ness, Vol. 54 (May 1974, Part II), pp. 1-75.

     2This discussion is taken in part from University of Denver
Research Institute, Industrial Economics Division.  Methodology
Papers;  Linked Industry.  Denver, Colo.:  University of Denver
Research Institute, 1977.

                               994
-------
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  uppliers and manufacturers, machine shops, and electric power
suppliers.1  Downstream industries include intermediate processors
 (such as producers of intermediate petrochemical products and
electrolytically processed metals) and end producers, such as
plastic products.

 (1)  Supplier or Upstream Industries

     Supplier industries are easily identified on an aggregate
national basis in input-output tables, such as those published by
the U.S. Department of Commerce2 and the data embodied in the
SEAS.3  However, both of these provide only national perspectives,
not regional ones.  The national data reflect aggregate linkages
among industries, and effects on particular industries will be
felt only in locations where those industries are present.  Avail-
able models include only current or historical data, which empha-
size large industrial cities and deemphasize the potential effects
on western urban areas.   Where a wide industry mix already exists,
it is more likely that industries will see an increase in produc-
tion from major needs, such as steel, arising from anywhere in
the country.  This is why Birmingham, Pittsburgh, and Duluth are
the three metropolitan areas projected ~o be most affected by in-
creased western energy development.14  In general, urban areas in
the West (including Albuquerque, Billings, Denver, and Salt Lake
City) receive a much smaller effect of secondary industrial devel-
opment than do urban areas in the northeast or West Coast (e.g.,
Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Los Angeles).5  Al-
though past trends cannot be expected to continue completely, it
is still certain that the bulk of industrial expansion attributable
to energy development will take place in existing or growing in-
dustrial complexes.   Of western cities, the Salt Lake City area


     1 Some projections of input needs and impacts on producing
industries and regions are included in Section 11.4.8.

     2U.S., Department of Commerce.  Input/Output Structure of the
U.S. Economy, 1967.   Washington, D.C.:   Government Printing Office,
1973.

     3SEAS is summarized and applied to the western energy cpntext
in White,  Irvin L.,  et al.   Energy From the West:  A Progress
Report of a Technology Assessment of Western Energy Resource De-
velopment.   Washington,  D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection
Agency,  1977, Vol. II, pp.  828-38 and in Section 11.4.8 below.

     ''Ibid. , Vol. II, p. 837.

     5Control Data Corporation and International Research and
Technology Corporation.   Scenario Run Analysis:  Western Energy
Development.  Washington,  D.C.:  U.S.,  Environmental Protection
Agency,  Technical Information Division, 1977.

                               996
-------
contains the industry mix in steel and nonferrous metals most
likely to be affected.1

(2)  User or Downstream Industries

     User industries are rarely, if ever, included in development
plans for energy facilities, and information for an adequate impact
analysis is virtually nonexistent.  One reason for this may be the
uncertainty associated with the magnitude, duration, and timing
of linked industry development.  Downstream industries may not
have an adequate market even though their potential inputs may be
assured by energy facility by-products.  Trade-off decisions must
be made between transport costs and relocation costs by linked in-
dustry firms established in other locations.  In addition, the
life of the energy resource at a location or within an area may
be difficult to predict.2

     For some energy projects, the by-products from processing an
energy resource, and other minerals occurring in a resource area,
are easily identified.  Coal gasification by the Lurgi process
produces six major by-products in substantial quantities  (Table
11-33).   These by-products can be processed near the plant site
if the volume produced provides a sufficiently reliable source of
raw material to processing industries.  A minimum of three to four
Lurgi plants is currently considered adequate to attract firms
that would use the by-products.  Otherwise, the by-products would
be transported out of the area to purchasing firms.

     Oil shale development involves by-products both from mining
and from retorting.  Other minerals such as dawsonite and nahcolite
occur interspersed with oil shale and can be extracted from lateral
shafts.   Dawsonite is a source of alumina that can compete with
foreign bauxite for the aluminum industry.  Nahcolite is naturally
occurring sodium bicarbonate (baking soda), which has several com-
mercial uses including use as an FGD agent.  The baking soda alter-
native for FGD is not feasible without a nahcolite source because
industrially refined baking soda is prohibitively expensive.  The
possibilities of multimineral mining, including other minerals
along with oil shale in western Colorado, improve the economic


     Control Data Corporation and International Research and
Technology Corporation.  Scenario Run Analysis:  Western Energy
Development.   Washington, D.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection
Agency,  Technical Information Division, 1977.

     2University of Denver Research Institute, Industrial Economics
Division.   Methodology Papers:  Linked Industry.  Denver, Colo.:
University of Denver Research Institute,  1977, pp. 2-3.

     3Morrison-Knudsen Company.  Navajo New Town Feasibility Over-
view.  Boise, Idaho:  Morrison-Knudsen, 1975.

                               997
-------
 TABLE 11-33:
SALABLE BY-PRODUCTS FROM LURGI COAL GASIFICATION
(tons per year)a
                 BY-PRODUCT
             Sulfur
             Crude Phenols
             Naphtha
             Tar Oils
             Tar
             Anhydrous Ammonia
                   QUANTITY PRODUCED
                         67,230
                         33,870
                        104,940
                        176,290
                        246,680
                         68,410
            Source:  U.S., Department of the Interior,
            Bureau of Reclamation.  Western Gasifica-
            tion Company  (WESCO)  Coal Gasification
            Project and Expansion of Navajo Mine by
            Utah International Inc., San Juan County,
            New Mexico;  Final Environmental Impact
            Statement, 2 vols.  Salt Lake City, Utah:
            Bureau of Reclamation, 1976.

             Based on 7,970 hours/year of a 250 mil-
            lion standard cubic feet per day plant.

             Does not include in-plant usage.
viability of oil shale.l   Flue gas cleaning using baking soda may
also allow sulfur to be produced as a by-product from power plants
at a cost much lower than current sulfur production.2

     Oil shale surface retorting produces coke, low British ther-
mal unit (Btu) gas, ammonia, and sulfur.  The low-Btu gas can be
expected to be used in the oil shale facilities.3  The remaining
by-products could be sold to firms that need them as inputs, al-
though the products are likely to be transported out of the region
to existing processing plants until supplies become great enough
in an area to attract investment in a plant there.  The value of


     ^trabala, Bill.  "Colorado Nahcolite Venture Planned."
Denver Post, October 10,  1976; Strabala, Bill.  "Oil Shale Mine to
Test Multimineral Leasing Plan."  Denver Post, July 3, 1977.

     2 "A Growing Squeeze on Sulfur."  Business Week, August 22,
1977, pp. 64-65.

     3Just, J., et al.  New Energy Technology Coefficients and
Dynamic Energy Models.  McLean, Va.:  MITRE Corporation, 1975,
Vol. 1, p. 57.
                               998
-------
these products from a 50,000 bbl/day plant annually is about $5.6
million (1975 dollars).1

(3)  Service Industries

     More local secondary effects are virtually impossible to pre-
dict with locational and temporal accuracy.  These industries in-
clude machine shops, supply houses, machinery parts dealers,
accounting firms, and other businesses that are needed to serve
some needs of energy developers.  A major difficulty in projections
is the trend among many developers and construction contractors to
provide most or all of these services for themselves.  It is ex-
tremely difficult to predict when enough firms would be present
in an area to create the need for a single, lower-cost, specialized
entrepreneur in these businesses.  This is most probable in larger
cities, such as Casper and Grand Junction, where the business mar-
ket in the area is larger.

     A second type of service industry is wholesale and retail
trade, which is related to population growth but has strong ten-
dencies to concentrate in large cities.  Although the retail sec-
tor grows along with population in any small town, a significant
fraction of retail expansion takes place in larger cities, and
nearly all wholesale activities are located there.  Large cities
serve as market centers for large regions, and are less affected
by the cyclical population changes in any small town.  As a town
grows, it adds new businesses of a higher-order nature, but a
larger city acquires more businesses from growth anywhere in an
extended market area.  There is a fairly consistent progression
of businesses related to population size that could be expected
to be replicated in the West.2  These range, for example, from
service stations to drugstores to furniture stores and reflect
the available population in the town's market area.

     Some market center relationships in the West will probably
change as a result of energy development, such as Gillette becoming
more important than Sheridan as a retail center in northern Wyoming.
However, the largest absolute service growth will tend to concen-
trate in existing large centers.  This growth is of a cumulative
nature and merely causes more growth as a result.3
     xJust, J.,  et al.   New Energy Technology Coefficients and
Dynamic Energy Models.   McLean, Va.:   MITRE Corporation, 1975,
Vol. 2, p. 139,  updated to 1975 dollars.

     2Berry, B.J.L.  The Geography of Market Centers and Retail
Distribution.  Englewood Cliffs, N.J.:Prentice-Hall, 1967.

     3Pred, A.R.  City-Systems in Advanced Economies.  New York,
N.Y.:  Wiley, 1977.

                               999
-------
D.  Local Inflation

     Price levels have always been somewhat higher in sparsely
settled areas for two primary reasons:  transportation costs from
places of manufacture, and lack of competition in small towns.
The only items with consistently lower prices tend to be those
produced locally, such as meat in most western locations.

     When isolated towns "boom", the demand for goods and services
increases, and prices rise, and/or shortages occur.   In recent
western boomtowns, residents have expressed dissatisfaction with
the availability of certain items more often than others; especially
housing, land, and professional and retail services.1  Employers
have also experienced a general shortage; of labor.  However, the
retailing sector tends to respond quickly and, in fact, local con-
sumers eventually have access to a greater variety of goods when
larger, more specialized stores are built.

     Boomtown inflation affects different people in various ways.
Generally, inflation will benefit sellers and increase costs for
buyers.  For example, landowners will benefit if they sell, but
renters will suffer from higher rents.  Depending on methods of
property taxation, landowners must pay taxes with higher assessed
valuations on their holdings.  In the local labor market, employers
will suffer from increased wages while workers will benefit.  In-
creased wages will usually more than conpensate for increased
prices, but some people, especially retirees, may not be in a
position to take advantage of the improved employment conditions.
Retirees also are adversely affected by property tax increases,
and in some areas many have been forced to sell their homes.

     Local government also acts as a participant in the local eco-
nomy.   As a buyer, it mainly purchases labor and must compete with
the energy developers.  Since most taxes are based on property
assessments, revenues will eventually rise with the general pace
of inflation.  However, assessments are often out of date; thus,
revenues may lag behind local governmental expenditures.2  Perma-
nent increases in tax rates should not be necessary.  In fact,
rates can be expected to decline for some county governments after
tax revenues begin to outpace needs.
              West Research.  Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report.  Washington, D.C.:  Old West Regional Commission, 1976.

     2Fiscal impacts on local government are considered in more
detail in the social and economic section of Chapters 4-9.

                              1000
-------
11.4.4  Public Services

A.  Expenditures

     Much of the development of energy resources in the West will
occur in sparsely populated areas.  Some communities of less than
5,000 people will increase their populations many times over.
Thus, large investments in public facilities will be required, and
operating expenses will be much higher than before the boom.  Pub-
lic investments at the local level will be devoted largely to water
supply, sewage treatment, and school buildings  (Table 11-34).1
Altogether the Low Demand case level of development would necessi-
tate local capital expenditures of about $1.35 billion by the end
of the century, most of this between 1990 and 2000, when the annual
rate of new investment is expected to reach $90 million (almost 4
times the 1975-1980 annual requirement).   This pattern is expected
to hold for all the states in the study area but is most extreme
in Montana and North Dakota.  Although Table 11-34 shows expendi-
ture needs only for operation-phase population, the additional
amounts for construction employees and their families can be seen
in the relative sizes of the populations in Table 11-30.  Full
cost figures were not calculated because temporary facilities for
construction are often chosen at a lower cost to communities.

     Local governments will also have to increase their operating
budgets by a total of $344 million annually by the year 2000
(Table 11-35), with school districts accounting for about 75 per-
cent of the increase.  As with capital costs, the operating costs
in the 1990's will mushroom the most in energy areas of Montana,
North Dakota,  and Wyoming.

     State government expenditures will also increase as populations
rise (Table 11-36).  Again, the greatest increases will be in the
Northern Great Plains states, which account for 78 percent of the
estimated expenditures for the region by the year 2000.  By the
year 2000, annual local operating expenditures are expected to be
$344.2 million; new state annual expenditures will be $571.3 mil-
lion; and the total capital expenses for the 25-year period are
$1,353.2 million.

B.  Revenues

     If state governments tax individuals at current rates and
also incur current per capita costs, new energy developments can
always be expected to provide a net surplus.  This is because new
revenue from conventional sources (mainly income and excise taxes)

     1 To facilitate comparisons among the states, consistent per
capita figures were used in the calculations, even though expen-
diture levels actually vary from state to state and community to
community.

                               1001
-------
TABLE  11-34:
LOCAL  CAPITAL EXPENDITURE NEEDS FOR LOW
DEMAND CASE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT, 1975-2000
(in millions  of  1975  dollars)
STATE
Colorado




New Mexico




Utah




Montana




North Dakota




Wyoming




•Six State
Total



PERIOD
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-2000
1975-2000
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-2000
1975-2000
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-2000
1975-2000
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-2000
1975-2000
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-2000
1975-2000
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-2000
1975-2000
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-2000
1975-2000
WATER AND
SEWER
6.3
10.0
16.5
86.4
119.2
21.3
17.2
0
24.3
62.8
3.9
1.2
0
4.0
9.1
18.3
48.8
19.0
176.9
263.0
12.3
21.1
19.5
147.5
200.4
17.1
30.4
16.7
116.3
180.5
79.2
128.7
71.7
555.4
835.0
SCHOOLS
1.8
2.8
4.7
24.6
33.9
6.1
4.9
0
6.9
17.9
1.1
0.4
0
1.2
2.7
5.2
13.9
5.4
50.2
74.7
3.5
6.0
5.6
41.9
57.0
4.9
8.7
4.8
33.1
51.5
22.6
36.7
20.5
157.9
237.7
OTHER
2.1
3.4
5.6
29.0
40.1
7.1
5.8
0
8.2
21.1
1.3
0.4
0
1.4
3.1
6.1
16.4
6.4
59.4
88.3
4.1
7.1
6.6
49.5
67.3
5.7
10.2
5.6
39.1
60.6
26.4
43.3
24.2
186.6
280.5
TOTAL
10.2
16.2
26.8
140.0
193.2
34.5
27.9
0
39.4
101.8
6.3
2.0
0
6.6
14.9
29.6
79.1
30.8
286.5
426.0
19.9
34.2
31.7
238.9
324.7
27.7
49.3
27.1
118.5
292.6
128.2
208. 7
116.4
899.9
1353.2
       Source:   Based on energy operation  population increases in
       Table 11-34 and data in THK Associates, Inc.  Impact Analysis
       and Development Patterns Related  to an Oil Shale Industry:
       Regional Development and Land Use Study.  Denver, Colo.:   THK
       Associates,  1974, p. 30, inflated to  1975 dollars.  Water and
       sewage plant expenditures are $1.76 million per 1,000 addi-
       tional population.  School capital  costs are $2500 per pupil,
       where school enrollment is assumed  to be 20 percent of the
       new population.  Other costs amount to $591,000 per 1,000
       population.   School capital costs are taken from Froomkin,
       Joseph,  J.R.  Endriss, and R.W.  Stump.  Population, Enrollment
       and Costs of Elementary and Secondary Education 1975-76 and
       1980-81, Report to the President's  Ccmmission on School
       Finance.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office,  1971.
                                 1002
-------
TABLE 11-35:
ANNUAL ADDITIONAL OPERATING EXPENDITURES OF LOCAL
GOVERNMENTS IN SIX WESTERN STATES, 1980-2000,
FOR LOW DEMAND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
(in millions of 1975 dollars)
STATE
Colorado



New Mexico



Utah



Montana



North Dakota



Wyoming



Six State
Total


YEAR
1980
1985
1990
2000
1980
1985
1990
2000
1980
1985
1990
2000
1980
1985
1990
2000
1980
1985
1990
2000
1980
1985
1990
2000
1980
1985
1990
2000
COUNTY AND MUNICIPAL
0.5
1.2
2.7
11.7
3.0
3.0
2.5
4.7
0.6
0.3
0.3
1.1
1.8
5.7
6.1
24.8
1.6
3.0
4.8
21.0
1.7
3.8
4.9
16.1
9.2
17.0
21.3
79.4
SCHOOL
1.6
4.0
9.0
39.0
9.9
10.0
8.4
15.6
2.0
1.2
1.2
3.7
6.1
19.0
20.4
82.8
5.3
10.2
16.0
70.1
5.8
12.8
16.2
53.6
30.7
57.2
71.2
264.8
TOTAL
2.1
5.2
11.7
50.7
12.9
13.0
10.9
20.3
2.6
1.5
1.5
4.8
7.9
24.7
26.5
107.6
6.9
13.2
20.8
91.1
7.5
16.6
21.1
69.7
39.9
74.2
92.5
344.2
Source:  Based on energy construction and operation population
increases in Table 11-29 and data in THK Associates, Inc.  Im-
pact Analysis and Development Patterns Related to an Oil ShaTe
Industry:  Regional Development and Land Use Study.  Denver, Colo,
THK Associates, 1974, p. 30.  The per capita figure used is $120
(1975 dollars).  School operating costs used are $2,000 per pupil
(which is an average figure that varies considerably among school
districts).   School enrollment is assumed to be 20 percent of
the new population.
                             1003
-------



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approximately balance new costs, while additional revenues will
be available from special energy taxes.

     The principal taxes currently levied on energy production
and conversion are summarized in Table 11-37, along with current
 (1975) property tax rates.  Applying these rates to the projected
numbers of facilities in each state in the Low Demand cas,e gives
an estimate of energy-derived revenues (not counting conventional
sources such as personal income taxes) for the years 1980, 1990,
and 2000  (Table 11-38).

     In the long run, most state and local governments can be ex-
pected to derive more funds from new revenues than they expend
on new costs.  The problem is one of timing and distribution, as
emphasized throughout the reports of this project.1  If states do
not distribute revenues to local governments, or if impacted lo-
calities do not receive property tax benefits, then the overall
surplus of funds becomes meaningless at the local level.

     Finally, Montana stands out from the other states in having
a particularly large surplus.  In fact, of the $2.95 billion likely
to be collected in the six-state region,  fully $1.32 billion is
expected to be generated within Montana.   Most of this will come
from the 30 percent coal mine severance tax, which is much higher
than rates in any other state.

11.4.5  Social and Cultural Effects

     Agriculture and agricultural interests presently dominate
much of the eight-state area.  The setting in the resource-rich
parts of the region is primarily rural, with any urban population
being limited to small towns.  Local lifestyles and cultures asso-
ciated with this western setting are likely to be changed by cir-
cumstances related to energy development, particularly where old-
timers (i.e., native westerners)  perceive themselves as being
outnumbered by newcomers who hold different values and have dif-
ferent interests.2  Over time, the values and attitudes of the
newcomers to the area could become dominant.  The impact of pro-
jected large population shifts is especially acute when distinctive
     1 White, Irvin L.,  et al.  Energy From the West:  Policy Analy-
sis Report.  Washington, B.C.:  U.S., Environmental Protection
Agency, forthcoming, Chapters 8 and 9; White, Irvin L. , et al.
Energy From the West:  A Progress Report of a Technology Assess-
ment of Western Energy Resource Development.   Washington, D.C.:
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977,  Chapter 3.

     2Corless, C.F., and B. Jones.  "The Sociological Analysis of
Boom Towns."  Western Sociological Review, Vol. 8  (1977), pp. 76-
90.

                              1005
-------
    TABLE 11-37:
STATE MINERAL SEVERANCE TAXES, PROPERTY
TAXES, AND ENERGY CONVERSION TAXES
(percentages)

*

Colorado
Montana
New Mexico
North Dakota

Utah

Wyoming


COAL3
7.2b
30.0
4.6b
11. 3b

0.0.
h
10.5

GAS
AND OIL
5.0°
2.65
4.9 >£
5.0 °

2.0

4.0


URANIUM
? ^c
-
5 0
d

1.0

5.5

SHALE
OIL
4.0







EFFECTIVE
PROPERTY
TAX RATE
1.37
1.19
1.21
1.48

1.82

1.52
ENERGY
CONVERSION
TAX
0
0 f
$.0004
$.00025;
$.10g



Source:   Bronder, Leonard D.  Severance Tax Comparisons  Among  WGREPO
States,  Staff  Analysis No.  77-28.  Denver, Colo.:   Western Governors'
Regional Energy Policy Office, June 1977.
•a
 Surface-mined.

 Law written in cents  per unit.  Values of resources assumed here of:
$8.33/ton for coal in  Four Corners States; $5.73/ton for coal in
Northern Great Plains;  $1.45/thousand cubic feet for gas;  $9.15/barrel
for oil; $40/lb.  for uranium  (yellowcake).

£
 Before property tax credits.

 No taxable production in 1977.

p
 3.4 percent effective rate for gas.

 0.4 mills per kilowatt hour  (kWh) of electricity generated.

 0.25 mills per kWh of electricity; $.10  per thousand cubic feet of
synthetic gas.

 Reverts to 8.5 percent after  the 2 percent special levy has accumu-
lated to $160 million  (probably around 1993).
                                1006
-------
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                                          1007
-------
ethnic ana/ or religious groups are involved, such as Indians,
Mexican- Americans ,  and Mormons.

     Many of these impacts can be discussed within the context of
social and cultural effects, or what is generally termed the
"quality of life" under the more general rubric of the "human
environment. "  Many of the attributes commonly included under
quality of life reflect the adequacy of public and private ser-
vices.  In the area of public services, the ability of local gov-
ernments to manage population growth and its effects is a critical
element.  Federal,  regional, and state eiction will be necessary
in most parts of the West to reduce or prevent adverse effects on
people's lives.  Private services, including housing, medical
care, and retail goods and services, also tend to be in short sup-
ply during rapid population growth.  Some towns in the West will
experience inadequacies in these areas as energy development pro-
ceeds. 1

     Medical care is an area of particular concern in the rural
West, which, like most rural areas in the U.S., is chronically
short of physicians.  The permanent population increases expected
in the West (those associated with energy facility operation) will
require a total of 678 doctors by 2000  (Table 11-39) .  Construction-
related population could add 268 doctors to this need, or a total
of 946.   It has tended to be difficult to attract doctors to small
towns .and rural areas such as those which will be affected by
energy resource development in the West.  In most energy areas,
active policies will be needed to attract doctors away from metro-
politan centers to small western towns.,2

     Since a substantial number of energy development-related im-
pacts on individuals' lives are viewed as being negative, such
developments can ultimately lead to a Lowering of the overall
quality of life.3  For instance, in many areas of the West, about
half the current housing consists of mobile homes, and this trend
will probably continue.  Indications are that dissatisfaction
with mobile home living will increase in conjunction with feelings
of social segregation experienced by some construction workers and
their families.  The tension and stress precipitated by value and
          an elaboration of these issues, see Chapter 8 "Housing,"
and Chapter 9 "Growth Management," in White, Irvin L. , et al .
Energy From the West:  Policy Analysis Report.  Washington, D.C.:
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, forthcoming.

     20n this point, see Ibid. ,  Chapter 9; and Coleman, Sinclair.
Physician Distribution and Rural Access to Medical Services,
R-1887-HEW.  Santa Monica, Calif. :  Rand Corporation, 1976.

     3Gilmore, John S.  "Boom Towns May Hinder Energy Resource
Development."  Science, Vol. 191 (February 13, 1976), pp. 535-40.

                              1008
-------
  TABLE 11-39:
INCREASED NUMBER OF DOCTORS NEEDED IN WESTERN
STATES BY YEAR 2000, LOW DEMAND CASE3

STATE
Colorado
New Mexico
Utah
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
Total
NUMBER OF
DOCTORS NEEDED
97
51
1
213
163
147
678
                 Source :   Based on operation-
                 related  population increases
                 (Table 11-29)  and an average
                 ratio of one doctor per 700
                 people,  which is approximately
                 the U.S. average.
lifestyle conflicts between long-time residents and newcomers must
also be taken into account.1

     The quality of life depends on the reactions of people to
their problems as well as on the problems themselves.  Thus, more
than any other factor in western energy development, quality of
life is largely unaffected by mitigating measures from outside
sources.  Local activity, planning, and cooperation are among the
most influential factors that can improve the quality of life in
energy-impact areas.

11.4.6  Political Impacts

     Although the relative population increases projected for the
region are not large (approximately 7 percent by 2000 in the Low
Demand case), population growth in some states is substantial and
will probably result in political changes.  The populations of
Montana, North Dakota,  and Wyoming particularly will increase
from 20 to 27 percent (Table 11-29).   If the partisan preferences
of newcomers to the region differ substantially from those of the


     1 These conflicts are elaborated in University of Montana,
Institute for Social Science Research.  A Comparative Case Study
of the Impact of Coal Development on the Way of Life of People in
the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and Northeastern Wyoming.
Missoula, Mont.:  Institute for Social Science Research, 1974.
                              1009
-------
natives, the partisan character of the entire region may shift.1
Similarly, if the influx of newcomers changes the demographic com-
position of the region, the level of political participation may
change as well.

     The impact of construction workers on the region will differ
substantially from that of operation and maintenance personnel.
Construction workers will have the most immediate effect on the
region.  They will strain the medical, housing, recreation, and
service facilities of the individual communities in the site area,
which may call o-n the state and federal government for assistance.
However, since the majority of construction workers are temporary
residents and many currently live in the region,2 they will proba-
bly not have any lasting political impact.

     Operation and maintenance personnel will follow the construc-
tion workers and will have a more definite political impact be-
cause they will reside in the region on a long-term basis.  Selec-
ted characteristics of the operation and maintenance workers can
be summarized from the reports on individual energy production/
conversion sites as follows:  they are highly skilled in the tech-
nical and managerial fields needed to operate the energy production
facilities; their income is above the median level for all indivi-
duals; and they are mostly between 30 and 60 years of age.  These
characteristics are important in assessing the political impact
of energy development because they are generally associated with
a high level of involvement in politics.3  Thus, operation workers
are more likely to become involved in community affairs than other
groups.  They will seek offices in the local government and in
school, church, and civic groups.  If successful, these individuals
are likely to use their leadership roles to guide the community's
development according to their own values and priorities.
            Hugh A., and Austin Ranney.  Politics and Voters.
New York, N.Y.:   McGraw-Hill, 1976; Campbell, Angus, et al.  The
American Voter.   New York, N.Y.:   Wiley, 1960, pp. 37-38.  His-
torically, interregional migration has shifted the partisan loyal-
ties of the western United States from heavily Democratic to bi-
partisan.

     2Mountain West Research.  Construction Worker Profile, Final
Report.  Washington, D.C.:  Old West Regional Commission, 1976.

     3Lipset, Seymour Martin.  P o1itic a1 Man.  Garden City, N.Y.:
Doubleday, 1960, p. 184; see also Pomper,Gerald.  Voters' Choice.
New York, N.Y.:   Dodd Mead, 1975, Chapter 3; Flanigan, William H.
Political Behavior of the American Electorate, 2nd ed.  Boston,
Mass.:   Allyn and Bacon, 1972.

                              1010
-------
11.4.7  Energy-Related Economic Growth Impacts

     The SEAS1 model was used to analyze some of the macroeconomic
impacts of expanded energy development.  The SEAS model includes
a Nominal Clean, Nominal Dirty, and Low Growth scenario.  Energy
production projected in the SEAS Nominal scenarios and in the Low
Growth scenario is similar to that projected by the SRI model and
used throughout most of this chapter.  The principal difference
is in oil shale projections which are 4.2 million bbl/day by 2000
in the SEAS Nominal cases but only 2.5 million bbl/day in the SRI
Nominal case.  The difference between the SEAS Nominal Clean and
Nominal Dirty scenarios is in compliance dates for pollution con-
trol.  These differences are given as needed in this section in
order to interpret the information generated by the SEAS model.

     Using these scenarios, the industries which are expected to
be affected the most by western energy development were identified,
and their projected growth rates were compared to those projected
for nonenergy related industries.  In addition, the macroeconomic
impacts of two levels of environmental control were analyzed by
comparing growth rates projected by the Nominal Clean and Nominal
Dirty scenarios.

A.  Growth in Industries Related to Energy Development

     SEAS disaggregates the national economy into 176 industrial
sectors.  Industries related to western energy development were
identified using an empirical criterion:  those industries in
which the output for the Nominal Growth case was at least 1 per-
cent greater than the Low Growth case as of 1995 were assumed to
be western energy related; that is, they sell a significant por-
tion of their output to firms involved in western energy develop-
ment.  Based on this empirical criterion, of the 176 industrial
sectors considered, 76, or 43 percent were identified as western
energy related.

     Using the Nominal Clean scenario, the nation's 25 fastest
growing industries (including both energy and nonenergy related
industries)  were analyzed in order to identify whether or not
their growth was due to or accelerated by western energy develop-
ment.  Table 11-40 lists the 25 fastest growing industries for
three time frames.  In the 1975 to 1980 period, 8 of the 25 are
western energy related and 17 are unrelated to western energy;  in
the 1980 to 1990 and 1990 to 2000 time frames, 9 are western
energy related and 16 are not.
     ^.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Technology Assessment
Modeling Project (TAMP).   A Description of the SEAS Model, Pro-
ject Officer Dr. Richard Ball.  Washington,D.C.:Environmental
Protection Agency,  1977.   (Unpublished report.)


                              1011
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     Growth rates between energy related and nonenergy related
sectors are not significantly different.  In none of the three
time frames are the energy-related sectors overrepresented among
the fastest growing sectors.  Random distribution would have put
an average of 10 energy-related sectors in the fastest growing
group in each time frame.  It thus seems that other influences
(such as demographic change) will have stronger effects on the
economy than does western energy development.

     However, some other trends indicated by the data on Table
11-40 do suggest that energy development eventually becomes a
significant growth stimulus.  For example, four of the five fastest
growing industries by 2000 are energy related (electrical measuring
instruments, coal mining, nonferrous forging, and lead).  Moreover,
batteries, the one nonenergy related industry that is part of the
five fastest growing industries, is indirectly energy-related.
That is, electrification is expected to be the major mode of
utilizing coal resources, at least until such time as synthetic
fuel industries mature.  Growth of the battery and lead industries
reflects, in particular, a projected penetration of 7.5 percent of
the national auto fleet by electric cars by 2000.

B.  Impacts of Environmental Controls

     Given any particular level of energy development, alternative
levels of pollution abatement expenditures can affect the growth
rates of various industries.  The SEAS model was used to compare
economic growth rates projected for two versions of the Nominal
growth scenario:  one with strict environmental controls ("Nominal
Clean")  and one with lax controls ("Nominal Dirty").   The environ-
mental compliance dates assumed in the SEAS scenarios are given
in Figure 11-14.  Some economic trends at the national level are
given first, followed by trends in the eight-state study area.1

(1)  Impacts at the National Level

     In most respects the economy shows a greater pace of activity
in the Nominal Clean scenario than in the Nominal Dirty scenario.
Among macroeconomic variables, this is most evident in capital
equipment investment which is 3.6 percent greater in 1990 in the
Clean scenario than in the Dirty scenario.  However,  after 1990
the situation reverses and total investment becomes less in the
Clean scenario than in the Dirty scenario.  Industries which were
induced to build new plants before 1990 in order to meet (or beat)
tight regulations then reduce their rate of investment.
     1 The SEAS model cannot precisely be disaggregated to the
eight-state region but because the nature of existing industries
in that region is known, the impacts on those industries can be
estimated.

                             1013
-------
    AIR POLLUTION CONTROLS'
DIRTY
SCENARIO
19"
CLEAN
SCENARIO
SIP

SIP
?5 19?
NSPS

0 19?


NSPS
5 19S
BACm

0 199


5 2000

     WATER POLLUTION CONTROLS
DIRTY
SCENARIO
19
CLEAN


75 19i

BPT


30 19

BPT

35 19C
BAT


)0 19<



35 2000

  FIGURE  11-14:
ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE DATES ASSUMED  IN
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT SYSTEMS
SCENARIOS
NSPS = New Source Performance Standards
SIP = state implementation plans
BACT = best available control technology
BPT = best practicable technology
BAT = best available technology

aRefers to plants in operation as of 1975; newly built plants
 must meet BAT standards under both scenarios.
D
 Refers to plants beginning construction as of given date.
                             1014
-------
     In addition, a significant difference between expenditures
in the Nominal Clean and Nominal Dirty scenarios occurs in the
late 1970's due to expenditures for water treatment.  Investments
in the 1970's are quite sensitive to compliance dates for Best
Practicable Treatment  (BPT) of water and to the preparation of
industry and municipalities for Best Available Technology  (BAT).
BAT is assumed in the Nominal Clean scenario but not in the Nom-
inal Dirty scenario (Figure 11-14).  The 1980's bulge in water
treatment expenditures is shown in Figure 11-15.  Expenditures
for water systems are $7.1 billion (1971 dollars) in the Nominal
Clean scenario and $4.7 billion in the Nominal Dirty scenario in
1980, while by 1990, expenditures under both scenarios are $4.0
billion.  In the case of sewer systems, expenditures in 1975 were
estimated at $5 billion (Nominal Dirty) and 7.4 billion (Nominal
Clean), increase to about $7.7 billion in 1980, and subsequently
decrease to $4.3 billion by 1985 under both scenarios.

     For 1980, the industrial sectors which show the largest dif-
ference in output between the' Nominal Clean and Nominal Dirty
scenarios are listed in Table 11-41.  These include equipment
manufacturing industries and industries which supply them with
materials and services.  While total output for all industrial
sectors is only 0.65 percent greater in the Clean scenario than
in the Dirty scenario, output for the auto manufacturing and re-
pair industries is 6.82 percent and 4.94 percent greater  (respec-
tively) in the Clean than in the Dirty scenario  (Table 11-41).
This indicates that auto emission standards1 will probably have
greater economic impacts than will controls on stationary air
pollution sources.  Other strongly affected sectors shown in Table
11-41 include chemicals, reflecting their use for industrial pollu-
tion control, and steel, reflecting its use in equipment manufac^
turing.

     As of 1990, the list of most strongly affected sectors  (i.e.,
most strongly affected by the Clean as opposed to the Dirty Sce-
nario) remains substantially the same.  It shows some shift towards
sectors related to electrical power, including special industrial
machinery, lighting and wiring equipment, and aluminum.

(2)  Impacts at the Regional Level

     The western regional economy is largely oriented toward ex-
tractive rather than manufacturing industries.2  In some cases,

     Expenditures on such devices as catalytic converters are
considered part of the auto industry's output.   The difference
between the scenarios reflects primarily the 1977 CAA Amendments.

     2Federal Region VIII  produces 8.7 percent of the nation's
farm output,  but only 1.4  percent of the value added by manufac-
tures, while its population is 2.9 percent of the nation's.

                              1015
-------
  H
  0
  o
  C!
  O
  •H
  •H
  CQ
           sewer, clean
           scenario
                                       water
                                       systems
  water,
  clean
scenario
         19 75
      1980
1985
1990
FIGURE  11-15:
   ANNUAL CONSTRUCTION EXPENDITURES  ON
   WATER AND  SEWER SYSTEMS
                          1016
-------
TABLE 11-41:
SECTORS WITH LARGEST DIFFERENCES IN OUTPUT  BETWEEN
CLEAN AND DIRTY  SCENARIOS,  AS OF 1980
LARGEST PROPORTIONAL DIFFERENCES
(percent)
Motor vehicles
Auto repair
Metal stamping
Miscellaneous chemicals
Engine electrical equipment
Industrial chemicals
Pipes, valves, fittings
All sectors
6.82
4.94
4.61
3.55
3.42
3.05
2.88
0.65
LARGEST ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCES
(millions of 1971 dollars)
Motor vehicles
Auto repair
Industrial chemicals
Steel
Petroleum refining
Wholesale trade
Business services
All sectors
5,705
1,210
1,029
932
744
589
526
17,144
     All percent differences are positive.

     Miscellaneous chemicals subsectors which show the largest differ-
    ences in the physical quantities produced include sodium chloride,
    ethylene, and propylene.

    c
     Industrial chemicals subsectors which show the largest differences
    in physical quantities produced include sulfuric acid, chlorine,
    and sodium carbonate.
such as the  extraction of molybdenum, virtually the entire national
supply of  the  resource may come from one  or  two western states.
Thus, national  economic trends cause substantial variation in eco-
nomic activity  in  localized areas.  This  is  the case for several
materials  used  in  pollution abatement which,  in accord with the
SEAS assumptions of nationally stricter controls in the Clean
scenario,  will  experience increased national  demand.

     Table 11-42 shows the 20 state/industry  combinations (out of
a total of 1,408 combinations considered) which experience the
largest differences in demand between the Nominal Clean and Nomi-
nal Dirty  scenarios.   Several types of regional impacts can be
observed:   (1)  demand for certain key materials is increased (e.g.,
copper, wood, aluminum, steel); (2) demand for  certain manufactured
items increases (e.g., computers,  machinery);  (3)  the control of
mobile sources  of  air pollution strongly affects the automobile
industry and, due  to decreased gasoline mileage,  the oil industry;
and (4) increased  expenditure on pollution control "crowds out"
other types  of  spending,  hence decreases retail trade in some
states.

     Overall, economic impacts on the western region of pollution
control expenditures reflect national demands for certain materials
                              1017
-------
TABLE 11-42:
INDUSTRIES SHOWING THE LARGEST STATE-
LEVEL DIFFERENCES IN OUTPUT, NOMINAL
CLEAN VERSUS NOMINAL DIRTY SCENARIOS,
1990
(millions of 1971 dollars)
       Arizona

         Copper (refining
           and fabricating)
         Copper (mining)
         Motor vehicles (repair)
         Computers
         Aluminum

       Colorado
         Motor vehicles (repair)
         Oil and gas
         Retail trade
         Special machinery
         Motor vehicles (mfg.)
         Wood products
         Steel

       Montana

         Wood products
         Copper (refining
           and fabricating)
         Petroleum  refining

       New Mexico

         Oil and gas
         Metal ores (except
           iron or  copper)
       Utah

         Motor vehicles (repair)
       Wyoming

         Petroleum  refining
         Oil and gas
                      DIFFERENCE
                      IN OUTPUT3
                        +31.30
                        +21.84
                        +15.19
                        + 9.98
                        + 8.74
                        +17.73
                        +14.83
                        -  7.23
                        +  6.13
                        +  5.76
                        +  5.14
                        +  5.13
                        +13.83

                        + 9.36
                        + 6.55
                        +10.10

                        + 5.63


                        + 8.36
                        + 8.99
                        + 7.40
      Differences expressed as output in
      Nominal Clean minus  the output in Nomi-
      nal  Dirty scenario.
                       1018
-------
 (such as copper, oil, and wood) which already play a major role
 in the region's economy.

 11.4.8  Personnel Resources Availability

     The question of personnel availability is addressed primarily
 on the regional and national levels because it is unlikely that
 local communities in the West will be able to fill the skilled
 positions required by the energy technologies.l  The unskilled
 positions could largely be met locally but these would hardly lead
 to bottlenecks in any case.  From the manpower supply point of
 view, the critical question is whether rapid energy development
 could be delayed by a nationwide shortage of key skilled personnel.

 A.  Levels of Development

     As with the analysis of material and equipment resources, the
 overall pace of development is considered first.  Manpower needs
 are based on the SRI Low Demand case projection and on the tech-
 nical and skilled manpower resources for standard-size facilities
 as detailed in the Bechtel Energy Supply Planning Model.2  Taking
 a 3,000-MWe mine-mouth power plant as an example, operation and
 maintenance will require a work force of:  24 engineers  (16 elec-
 trical, 8 mechanical), 4 draftsmen, 56 supervisors, 240 skilled
 tradesmen (80 equipment operators, 80 welders, 48 electricians,
 and 32 pipefitters), and 112 relatively unskilled workers.

 B.  Operations

     The total number of workers required for operating the number
 of plants in the Low Demand case, detailed by skill category, is
 about 144,000 as listed in Table 11-43.  In terms of supply, the
 most readily available source of labor would be those workers
 filling similar positions in similar industries.  If this source
 is orders of magnitude greater than western energy requirements,
 then western development should have relatively little impact in
 the labor market.  On the other hand, if needs are large in com-
 parison to supply, then other industries must be raided,  workers
 upgraded, wages boosted, and/or standards lowered.
     1 In one survey, 73.9 percent of the professional, technical,
and supervisory workers were found to be of nonlocal origin.  See
Mountain West Research.  Construction Worker Profile, Final Report.
Washington, D.C.:  Old West Regional Commission, 1976, p. 19.

     2Cazalet, Edward, et al.  A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study;  Economics, Final Report, 2 vols.  Menlo Park, Calif.:
Stanford Research Institute, 1976; Carasso, M., et al.  The Energy
Supply Planning Model.  San Francisco, Calif.:  Bechtel Corpora-
tion, 1975.


                              1019
-------
  TABLE 11-43:
DEMAND FOR SKILLED AND PROFESSIONAL
PERSONNEL, WESTERN REGION, POST-1975
FACILITIES, LOW DEMAND CASE
(operational and maintenance)
OCCUPATION
Engineers
Chemical
Civil
Electrical
Mechanical
Mining
Geological
Other
Total
Draftsmen
Supervisors
Other Technical
Total Managerial
and Technical
Pipefitters
Electricians
Boilermakers
Carpenters
Welders
Operatives
Underground Miners
Other Skills and
'Crafts
Total Skills and
Crafts
All Technical,
Managerial, and
Skilled
1980



120
70
70
10
50
320
100
1,350
700

2,150
210
990
0
0
560
2,900
2,100

3,500

10,260


12,730
1985

20
0
220
140
170
20
130
700
230
2,700
1,550

4,480
420
2,000
50
1,100
6,900
3,950
3,950

8,500

22,940


28,120
1990

160
20
310
260
300
60
220
1,430
390
4,550
2,800

7,740
820
3,350
100
20
1,670
13,100
7,600

16,400

43,060


52,230
2000

1,200
250
650
700
700
150
600
4,250
1,000
9,800
7,000

17,800
3,100
7,500
800
1,100
3,900
40,000
7,900

48,500

122,800


144,850
Source:  Carasso, M., et al.  The Energy  Supply
Planning Model.  San Francisco, Calif.:Bechtel  Cor-
poration,1975; and Cazalet, Edward, et al.  A Western
Regional Energy Development Study:  Economies'^Final
Report,2 vol».Menlo Park, Calif.:Stanford Research
Institute, 1976.
                        1020
-------
     This analysis is focused on the next decade because almost
any degree of demand could be met by specific training, within 10
years.   Although special provisions might be required for schools
or apprenticeship programs, supply would not be absolutely con-
strained by the current skill distribution beyond about 1985.

     The 1970 data on occupations by industry were consulted to
determine the characteristics of the labor force in the mining
and utility industries.  The 1985 personnel requirements, expressed
as a percentage of this readily available pool, are indicated in
Table 11-44.  As shown in the table, labor requirements for devel-
oping western energy resources could range up to about 10 percent
in some of the occupational categories, but for most occupations
the demand would be less than 5 percent of available supply.  The
9.5 percent indicated for operatives may actually be less because
some 100,000 workers were deducted from this category and classi-
fied as "underground miners."

     Western energy development may tighten the markets for tech-
nicians, mining engineers, and welders, with 1985 demand exceeding
6 percent of the readily available labor pool in each case.  The
technician category consists mainly of surveyors, instrumentation
people, and chemical laboratory people.

     Western development also may noticeably raise salaries, per-
haps by as much as 20 percent.  It may also provide the opportunity
for further unionization in the West.  Some skilled technicians
(such as welders)  can be easily transferred from other industries,
while those such as mining engineers must take college courses and
gain specific job experience over several years.  Some increase
in mining engineering education can already be detected.2

     As noted previously,  the major long-term limitation is not
the current shape of the labor force but the training programs
which are or are not instituted.  In particular, the 1985-2000
period will bring very rapid increases in the demand for chemical
and civil engineers, boilermakers,  and carpenters.   Clearly, new
engineers must, at some point, go through a college curriculum,
with some receiving advanced degrees.  Conversely,  skilled manual


     1 One recent environmental impact statement which detailed
the qualifications of the labor force indicated no more than 10
years experience is required for any of the positions.   See U.S.,
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.   Draft
Environmental Impact Statement:  Kaiparowits Project,  6 vols.
Salt Lake City, Utah:  Bureau of Land Management, 1976.

     2The Bureau of Mines reports that college enrollments in that
field have risen 22 percent in a single year.   Poe,  Edgar.   "In
Washington."  Coal Mining and Processing,  Vol.  13 (April 1976),
pp. 39-42.

                              1021
-------
TABLE  11-44:
1985 WESTERN  ENERGY  DEMAND  FOR OPERATIONAL
LABOR  AS  A PERCENTAGE OF  1970  NATIONAL
MARKET, LOW DEMAND CASE


OCCUPATION
Engineers
Chemical
Civil
Electrical
Geological5
Mechanical
Mining
Other
Total Engineers
Draftsmen
Supervisors
Other Technical
Total Managerial
and Technical
Pipefitters
Electricians6
Boilermakers
Carpenters
Weldersf
Underground Miners8
Operatives11
Other Skills and
Crafts
Total Skills and
Crafts
1985
WESTERN
DEMAND3

20
0
220
20
140
170
130
700
230
2,700
1,550

4,480
420
2,000
20
50
1,100
3,950
6,900

8,500

22,940

1970 ,
SUPPLY

5,800
1,300
19,600
2,100
4,400
2,500
4,100
38,800
3,200
43,100
18,400

74,700
10,500
100,200
1,400
8,000
16,400
112,100
12, 300

226,700

547,600


PERCENTAGE

0.3
0
1.2
1.0
3.2
6.8
3.2
1.8
2.8
5. 6
8. 4

6.0
4.0
2.0
1.4
0.6
6.7
3.5
9.5

3.7

4.2
           Taken from Table 11-43.

           Source:  U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of  the
          Census.  Occupation by Industry, Subject Report PC(2)-7C.
          Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1973, Table
          8.  Workers were counted  from the census industry  cate-
          gories of mining, excluding oil and gas production;
          privately-owned electric  utilities; and petroleum  re-
          fining.

          cCensus category:  geologists.

           Census category:  plumbers and pipefitters.

          eCensus category:  electricians and linemen.

           Census category:  welders and flamecutters.

          8Census categories:  blasters and powdermen,  bolting
          operatives, earth drillers, mine operatives N.E.C.,
          motormen.

           Nontransport operatives, excluding distinctly mining
          categories.
                                   1022
-------
trades are learned primarily by "hands-on" experience.  Therefore,
the supply of engineers can be promoted through student scholar-
ships and grants to colleges, and some skills can be learned in
simulated mines and other such specially designed facilities.1
In short, foreseeable labor requirements can be met, but some will
require expanded training programs, union cooperation, and other
actions.

C.  Construction

     The same basic methodology was used in the analysis of con-
struction requirements.  The census categories of "general con-
tractors except buildings" and "special trades contractors, sala-
ried employees" were used because they correspond roughly to what
is generally known as "heavy construction."  On the demand side,
the Bechtel data base indicates the number of construction workers
needed in each year leading up to the completion of each energy
facility.  For simplicity, the average number of workers in each
year of major construction activity was multiplied by the number
of plants in that phase at any given time.  Estimates of the
total numbers employed in selected years are given in Table 11-45.
A maximum of 94,800 construction personnel will be needed in the
late 1990's.

     When 1985 demands are compared with the size of the construc-
tion labor force (Table 11-46), potential shortages of mining
engineers, boilermakers, and chemical engineers are greater than
the projected problems with operation and maintenance personnel.
If the demands and supplies for these occupations are combined for
a slightly wider group of industries (construction, mining, petro-
leum refining and electric utilities),  the results are as shown
in Table 11-47.

     It appears that the supply of chemical engineers would not
be a problem but that availability of boilermakers could consti-
tute a significant bottleneck.  Additional workers could be re-
cruited from manufacturing industries,  but ultimately apprentice-
ship programs must be expanded.  Even if the 1985 demand is met
from the current labor pool, a more than threefold increase beyond
the 1985 demand is anticipated by 2000 (4,500 in construction ver-
sus 1,300 at the earlier date).

     Beyond 1985, labor requirements would be greatly increased
by gasification and shale oil plants.   Particularly sharp growth
in demand (sevenfold or more) would be felt for chemical and mech-
anical engineers, pipefitters, welders, and carpenters.  As noted
previously in the case of operations personnel, a long lead time


     !For example,  Tillman,  David A.  "Peabody Training Center
Simulates Real Underground Conditions."  Coal Mining and Processing,
Vol.  12 (December 1975), pp. 62-67.

                              1023
-------
  TABLE 11-45:
DEMAND FOR CONSTRUCTION WORKERS,
SKILLED AND PROFESSIONAL,
WESTERN REGION, LOW DEMAND CASE
OCCUPATION
Engineers
Chemical
Civil
Electrical
Mechanical
Mining
Geological
Other
Total Engineers
Technicians
Draftsmen
Supervisors
Other Technical
Total Managerial
and Technical
Skilled Trades
Pipefitters
Electricians
Boilermakers
Ironworkers
Carpenters
-Operating
Engineers
Welders
Other Skills
and Crafts
Total Skills
and Crafts
All Technical,
Managerial, and
Skilled
1980

20
600
360
330
80
30
60
1,480

720
340
1,500

2,560

2,100
1,420
1,300
900
850

1,430
1,300

920

10,220


14,260
1985

220
800
480
570
160
70
160
2,460

1,410
580
2,440

4,430

4,640
2,050
1,300
1,170
1,440

2, 350
2,, 030

1,180

16,160


23,050
1990

400
820
540
720
140
60
230
2,910

1,870
670
2,900

5,440

6,650
2,400
1,240
1,230
1,750

2,470
2,600

1,140

19,480


27,830
2000

1,600
2,600
1,700
2,500
400
200
800
9,800

4,500
2,300
9 ,900

16,700

25,400
8,400
3,800
3,800
6,400

8,000
9,300

3,200

68,300


94,800
Source:  Carasso, M., et al.  The Energy Supply
Planning Model.  San Francisco, Calif.:  Bechtel
Corporation, 1975; and Cazalet, Edward, et al.
A Western Regional Energy Development Study:
Economics, Final Report, 2 vols.  Menlo Park,
Calif.:  Stanford Research Institute, 1976.
                        1024
-------
        TABLE 11-46:
1985 WESTERN ENERGY DEMAND FOR
CONSTRUCTION LABOR AS PERCENTAGE
OF 1970 NATIONAL MARKET,
LOW DEMAND CASE


OCCUPATION
Engineers
Chemical
Civil
Electrical
Mechanical
Mining
Geological
Other
Total Engineers
Technicians
Draftsmen
Supervisors
Other Technical
Total Technicians
Skilled Trades
Pipefitters
Electricians
Boilermakers
Ironworkers3
Carpenters
Operating Engineers
Welders
Other Skills and Crafts
Total Skills and Crafts
1985
WESTERN
DEMAND

220
800
480
570
160
70
160
2,460

1,410
580
2,440
4,430

4,640
2,050
1,300
1,170
1,440
2,350
2,030
1,180
16,160

1970
SUPPLY

900
54,800
4,800
4,300
100
500
6,900
72,300

16,000
158,500
23,000
197,500

174,100
182,700
2,600
44,800
133,000
22,800
38,100
822,100
1,420,200


PERCENTAGE

24.4
1.5
10.0
13.3
160.0
14.0
2. 3
3.4

8.8
0.4
10.6
2.2

2.7
1.1
50.0
2.6
1.1
10. 3
5.3
0.1
1.1
Source:  Table 11-45 and U.S., Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census.  Occupation by Industry, Subject
Report PC(2)-7C.   Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing
Office, 1973, Table 8.

aCensus categories of cranemen and hoistmen and structural
metal craftsmen.

 Census categories of earth drillers, miscellaneous machine
operatives, and fork lift operatives.
                             1025
-------
TABLE 11-47:
1985 WESTERN ENERGY DEMAND FOR SELECTED OCCUPATIONS
IN CONSTRUCTION, MINING, PETROLEUM REFINING, AND
ELECTRIC UTILITIES:  LOW DEMAND CASE

OCCUPATION
Mining engineers
Boilermakers
Chemical engineers
1985
DEMAND
300
1,320
240

LABOR POOL
3,100
6,600
8,200

PERCENTAGE
10.6
20. 0
2. 9
      Source:  Tables 11-44 and 11-46 and U.S., Department
      of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,.  Occupation by
      Industry, Subject Report PC(2)-7C,.  Washington, D.C.:
      Government Printing Office, 1973, Table 8.


would allow these requirements to be met but would necessitate ex-
pansion of formal schooling and/or apprenticeship programs.

     Western energy is still an emerging industry; thus, the future
course of industrial relations has not yet been established.  As
the industry grows, it will obviously provide a major opportunity
for union organization.   What is considerably less clear is how
far labor organization will go and what forms it might take.  For
example, the historical patterns of Appalachian mining probably
will not be repeated.  Almost all western mining is done by sur-
face methods, which call for a smaller, more educated work force.
There is more capital per worker than in underground mines, and
the work is safer.  All these features have a bearing on the pace
and form of unionization.  Moreover, the energy conversion facil-
ities have small, highly specialized work forces.  In short, west-
ern energy does not seem easily organiz:able into the type of in-
dustrial unions seen in the East.  It is perhaps indicative that
in the most recent coal strike, most western mines continued pro-
duction. l  Nevertheless, a number of labor organizations are trying
to establish themselves.2  The results cannot be predicted with
any reliability.
     ^roelstrup, Glenn.  "16,000 Tons of Coal a Day Shipped by
Rail to Midwest Utilities."  Denver Post, Feb. 26, 1978.

     2Recent western organizing efforts of the United Mine Workers
are described in "The UMW Is Learning How to Lose the West.""
Business Week, April 18, 1977, pp. 128, 130.
                              1026
-------
11.4.9  Capital Availability

A.  Capital Requirements

     Large investments would be required to develop western energy
resources at either of the two levels being considered.  Nation-
wide, investments would be even larger and questions have been
raised about the ability and willingness of financial institutions
to undertake such extensive commitments.

     In this subsection, an attempt is made to answer several of
these questions, specifically:  (1) How large are the demands for
capital implied by western energy development?  What is the time
distribution of these demands?  (2) Is this demand for capital
large compared to national markets, in the sense of raising inter-
est rates or diverting substantial funds from other sectors?
(3) Are the individual projects large compared to the credit limits
of firms in the industry?  Will western energy development alter
current patterns of industrial organization?  (4) How sensitive
are these forecasts to changes in market conditions?

     The capital resources required for the construction of several
energy facilities are listed in Table 11-48.  Conversion facilities
account for over $1 billion each,  and are responsible for the
largest drain on the capital markets.  Coal mining is a signifi-
cant contributor, since the 100 surface mines projected in the
Low Demand case account for nearly $13 billion in total investment
by 2000.

     The four energy technologies which contribute most to capital
demands during the time frame of this study are surface coal
mining, mine-mouth power generation, coal gasification, and oil
shale processing.  Financial data for these industries are summa-
rized by periods in Table 11-49.  The patterns of development are
quite diverse.  Whereas oil shale and gasification are young and
growing industries, mining is characterized by a steady (almost
linear) growth of output; and mine-mouth power plants will have
achieved a "mature" industry status by the late 1980's with only
slight growth afterwards.  Oil shale and gasification, once begun
in the West, will require steadily growing inputs of capital,
while mining requires a fairly constant $250-500 million in new
money per year.  Also, with a number of new plants coming on-stream
in the opening years of the study period, mine-mouth power will
actually become a net supplier of funds by 1985.

     These diverse trends add up to a very stable $1 billion rate
of investment for the first 8 years,1 not counting transportation.

     1 Table 11-49 shows a total of 13.26 billion dollars over the
10 year period of 1976 through 1985; roughly 8 billion dollars of
this is required in the first 8 years and 5 billion dollars in the
last two years.

                               1027
-------
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                                                  1029
-------
During that period mine-mouth power would take the major portion
of funds.  By 1985, 36,000-MWe would be on-line.  These power
plants would contribute a return cash flow of almost $800 million
per year, an amount equivalent to around 35 percent of the require-
ments for all new construction.  However, in the mid-19801s, fun-
damental changes would begin to occur.  First oil shale and then
gasification will be absorbing funds as fast as the previous peak
of mine-mouth power.  Oil shale, though lagging during most of the
time frame, will begin consuming funds in the late 1980's.

     In short, energy development would require about $1 billion
per year in new funds for quite a while, but after 1988 investment
dwarfs anything previously encountered, reaching a $5 billion
annual rate by the end of the century and still accelerating.

     In terms of a regional disaggregation, the largest invest-
ments would be required in Montana and North Dakota in both the
Nominal and Low Demand cases and in Colorado in the Nominal case
(Table 11-50).l   In Montana and North Dakota, investments would
be needed primarily for coal development; in Colorado, they would
be needed for oil shale development.  Gasification would represent
a sizable share of investment in the Northern Great Plains states
after 1990.

     New transportation facilities compose an important link in
the western energy system and could boost total investment costs
of the four resource technologies by $41 billion.  This estimate
is based on assumptions stated in Table 11-51 where the substantial
costs of transporting coal, compared to the synthetic energy forms,
can also be seen.  In fact, the low-cost transport of synthetic
fuels is one of the prime incentives for adopting them.   (Trans-
portation costs and capacities are described further in Section
11.6.)

     The other energy systems in the aggregated scenario have
negligible capital requirements.  For example, although each under-
ground mine requires more capital than a surface' mine of similar
size, surface mines will far outnumber underground mines in the
West.  As another example, uranium mining and milling have very
low capital requirements per Btu.

     Nevertheless, the Low Demand case: estimates a western uranium
output of 17.11 Q's (1015Btu's) per year by the end of the century,
which would require substantial investment in both enrichment and
reactor facilities.  In fact, if all the uranium output went to
light water reactor plants, an investment of some $143 billion

     :This table differs from the previous tabulation in that only
completed facilities are counted and interest costs are included.
These alterations bring the results closer to figures that would
be used in tax assessment.

                              1030
-------
    TABLE 11-50:
VALUES OF FACILITIES PLACED IN OPERATION, BY
STATE, 1975-1990 AND 1990-2000
(billions of 1975 dollars)3


STATE
Colorado
New Mexico
Utah
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
Total
(six states)
1975-1990

NOMINAL
8.22
1.54
2.55
10.45
10.31
3.90

36.97
LOW
DEMAND
2.54
1.38
1.28
5.93
7.87
4.80

23.80
1990-2000

NOMINAL
19.54
2.86
2.22
23.05
26.28
12.15

86.10
LOW
DEMAND
4.06
1.38
0
14.27
16.49
9.36

45.54
        Source:  Cazalet, Edward, et al.  A Western Re-
        gional Energy Development Study;  Economics,
        Final Report, 2 vols.  Menlo Park, Calif. :
        Stanford Research Institute, 1976.
        *a
         Four energy systems are considered:  gasifica-
        tion, oil shale, mine-mouth electricity, and coal
        mining.  Figures include interest cost during
        construction.
would be required by the year 2000.  Enrichment and other fuel
processing facilities could require an additional $11.5 billion.
These costs are noted in passing but are not among the prime con-
cerns of this study because the facilities would be located out-
side the region.

     Another category of costs not analyzed in detail is pollution
control.  Little hard information is available in this area.
Nevertheless, electrical power plants will probably have to invest
at least $100 per kilowatt (kW) (and perhaps twice that) for con-
trol of sulfur emissions.1  Control devices will also entail in-
creased operating costs, and reduced overall electric generating
plant efficiency.  Other pollutants will also require control
devices, such as electrostatic precipitators (ESP) for fly ash.
(The costs of sulfur control are considered here simply to


     aOttmers, D.M.,  et al.  Evaluation of Regenerable Flue Gas
Desulfurization Processes, 2 vols.  Austin, Tex.:  Radian Corpora-
tion, 1976, Vol. 1, p.  20.
                              1031
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                             1032
-------
indicate the orders of magnitude involved.)  The $100 per kW figure
implies additional capital costs of $540 million during 1976-1980,
$570 million in the 1980's, and $270 million in the 1990's.  Since
the synthetic fuels systems are still being developed, it is dif-
ficult to estimate pollution control costs associated with them.

B.  Impact on Capital Markets and Energy Companies1

     The financial demands described above can be compared with
the overall size of U.S. financial markets and the energy indus-
tries' historical share of those markets (Table 11-52).  Equipment
expenditures over the decade ending in 1975 averaged 7.9 percent
of the gross national product (GNP).2  An average of 7.8 percent
up to 2000 and a compound GNP growth rate of 3.5 percent per year
are assumed in the following comparisons.  This is a bit high, but
is consistent with the energy growth rate implicit in the SRI
Nominal Demand case.3  The proposed investments would not severely
strain national capacity to build industrial structures and dura-
ble equipment, at least from this highly aggregated perspective.
Even during the projected gasification and oil shale development
boom during the 1990's, western energy development will constitute
no more than 4 percent of the nation's new plants and equipment.

     The share of investment traditionally taken by the energy
industries provides another yardstick of impact.  The U.S. Depart-
ment of Commerce categories of electric and gas utilities, petro-
leum companies (domestic operations only), and mining companies
together have usually accounted for approximately 30 percent of
all new plant and equipment expenditures.  In the last 5 years,
these industries have been investing at a rate of $36 billion per
year  (1975 currency).  Allowing a 3.5 percent annual growth rate,
western energy projects would take only 2.8 to 3.5 percent of the
sector's investments through 1990, but would account for 12 per-
cent during the 1991-2000 period.  By the 1990's, western develop-
ment will begin taking a noticeable share of energy investment,
but it will be replacing other investments, such as conventional
oil and gas drilling.  Thus, the energy sector should maintain its


      1This set of impacts and resulting issues is discussed in
much  greater detail in Chapter 10, "Capital Availability" in White,
Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the West:  Policy Analysis Report.
Washington, D.C.:  U.S.,Environmental Protection Agency,forth-
coming.

      2As reported in the "New Plant and Equipment Expenditures"
series in the Survey of Current Business; published monthly by
the U.S. Department of Commerce.

      3Together the two assumptions allow for gradual implementa-
tion of energy conservation; for the average industry, Btu's per
dollar output will decrease by 0.7 percent per year.

                              1033
-------
    TABLE 11-52:
INVESTMENTS FOR WESTERN ENERGY COMPARED TO
NATIONAL NEW PLANT INVESTMENTS
(in billions of 1975 dollars)

TIME
PERIOD
1976 - 1980
1981 - 1985
1986 - 1990
1991 - 2000
1976 - 2000
INVESTMENT IN
WESTERN ENERGY
(FOUR SYSTEMS)3
6.72
6.54
9.88
47.69
70.83

NEW PLANT,
ALL INDUSTRIES
648
770
914
1,289
4,707


PERCENTAGE
1.04
0.85
1.08
3.70
1.50
   aOil shale, coal gasification, surface mining, and mine-mouth
   power generation.


historic share of investment activity, even as it shifts to new
technological systems.

     Although western energy development is not large when compared
either to the economy as a whole or to the energy industries, the
projects envisioned in the scenarios could challenge the capacity
of even the largest individual firms.  The overall capital require-
ment would not be intolerably large, but the expenditures must be
made in major segments.  Some trends that appear likely for com-
panies involved in western energy development include:  increased
diversification by oil companies into other energy resources; con-
tinued growth by mining firms; increasing use of consortium arrange-
ments for financing large projects; and project financing for in-
dividual energy facility investments.1

     According to the SRI model, if oil prices continue to rise,
synthetic fuels systems would become attractive investments with-
out governmental subsidies by 1990.  This scenario assumes that
world oil prices will advance from the 1975 price of $11 per barrel
to $16 per barrel by the end of the century (1975 prices).  In
such a case, interfuel competition, with each technology receiving
its minimum acceptable price, would drive imported oil out of the
market.  Shale syncrude, Lurgi gas, arid other synthetic fuels
could be produced for a total cost less than $16 per barrel equiv-
alent according to SRI assumptions.
     }Vickers, Edward L.  "Comments on Project Financing," in U.S.,
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management.  Southwest
Energy-Minerals Conference Proceedings.  Santa Fe, N. Mex.:  Bureau
of Land Management, 1977, Vol. II, pp7 209-39.
                              1034
-------
     However, if the international oil cartel cannot (or will not)
maintain prices, their oil will supply an increasingly large share
of the U.S. energy market.  SRI has run a sensitivity analysis in
which world oil prices first fall, then rebound to $10 by the end
of the century.  Under such circumstances, oil shale development
and other synthetic fuel projects would be almost forestalled.
Such uncertainties, combined with the large capital cost of syn-
fuels facilities, result in financial risks which may keep poten-
tial investors from participating in western energy development.

11.4.10  Summary of Regional Social, Economic, and Political
         Impacts

     As a result of energy developments likely for the western
U.S. between the present and 2000, the study area population can
be expected to increase by 662,000-1,248,000 people.  This popula-
tion increase would generate most of the impacts discussed in this
section.  Relative increases projected are modest for Colorado,
New Mexico, and Utah, but they may be as great as 20-27 percent
in Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming.  Increases as great as 400
percent through the year 2000 will occur in some local areas in
the West.

     As a result of the new employment in the energy industry, re-
gional income can be expected to increase by nearly 16 percent
(in constant dollars) by 2000.  The relative importance of economic
sectors will change as well, with significant shifts from agricul-
ture to energy in the Northern Great Plains states.  Despite
higher overall income, inflation can be expected to occur in some
localities because of increased demands and inadequate supply of
goods and services.  This will adversely affect the elderly, those
on fixed incomes, and small businessmen.

     Local cultures and lifestyles will be affected, particularly
those of ranchers, farmers, and Indians.  Political affiliations
may also change as a result of the influx of new residents.  How-
ever, quality-of-life impacts will depend mostly on local condi-
tions, and especially on how local governments and communities
are able to respond to stresses induced by the new population.
Their success will largely depend on their ability to plan and
manage growth.

     Capital expenditures for local government services in the
region will approach $90 million per year between 1990 and 2000.
Overall, a total of $1.35 billion will be needed for these pur-
poses in the West from 1975 to 2000.  In the aggregate, tax reve-
nues should be adequate to cover these expenditures.  However,
jurisdictional barriers can lead to problems when revenues accrue
in a jurisdiction other than the one most severely impacted.
State distribution of revenues to local areas is a critical deter-
minant of revenue adequacy or shortage at the local level.


                               1035
-------
     Equipment, capital, and personnel availability constraints
can also be expected to occur.  Capital requirements for energy
facilities will not, on the aggregate, be a large fraction of
total capital required nationally for plants and equipment.  How-
ever, the size of individual facilities will be so large that
single companies are unlikely to have adequate capital or take
the risks of borrowing for them.  As a result, more joint ventures
and outside financing will be required.  On the whole, energy
development would require about $71 billion in new funds from 1975
to 2000, but after 1988 investment would grow to a $5 billion
annual rate by the end of the century.

     Personnel resources will, for the nost part, be adequate,
but there will be substantial demands for chemical and mining en-
gineers as well as a particularly high demand for boilermakers.
These demands can probably be met only by establishing or enlarging
training programs for these occupations.

11.5  ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS

11.5.1  Introduction

     A diversity of plant and animal communities occur in the
eight-state study area.  Consequently the effects on ecosystems
from energy development will vary widely over the region depending
on the particular stresses within an area and the biological com-
munities present.  The ecological impacts sections in Chapters
4-9 identify and describe the kinds of impacts that can be anti-
cipated given various local conditions,,  In assessing the ecologi-
cal consequences of energy development over the region, it is
clear that many of the effects will be qualitatively similar to
those identified in the local scenarios; they will simply occur
in more locations.  In addition, regional development can pose
cumulative stresses that will have ecological significance.  Three
of these cumulative stresses are discussed here:  the impacts of
consumptive water use on aquatic habitats; the loss and degradation
of terrestrial communities through large-scale changes in land-use
patterns; and the emissions of large quantities of SOa into the
atmosphere.  These stresses may act independently and synergisti-
cally to produce changes in plant and animal populations in the
study area.

     Each section identifies the types; of impacts energy develop-
ment may have on the area's biological communities and gives ex-
amples of ecological changes that result from altering factors
                              1036
-------
which determine the abundance and distribution of plant and animal
populations.1  Throughout the eight-state area, the man-made and
natural factors that act as stresses to ecosystems and their com-
ponent populations vary in different areas.  Consequently, these
ecosystems differ in both their ability to sustain new stresses
without deterioration and their resiliency or ability to recover
from the changes induced by new stresses.  These locational dif-
ferences are highlighted in the following discussion.

11.5.2  Impacts from Water Consumption

     Of all the habitats found in the study area, aquatic habitat
is by far the most limited in extent.  Further reduction in this
habitat will have more widespread effects to both aquatic and
terrestrial species than changes to large areas of terrestrial
habitat.  Development of the water resources needed for the re-
gional scenario will result in three principal changes to aquatic
habitats:  decreased stream flow, changes in water quality, and
construction of water supply reservoirs.

A.  Flow Reduction

     As indicated in Chapters 4-9, stream-flow depletion arises
from different removal and consumption of water, aquifer depletion,
and runoff control.  Anticipated water demands from regional
development for the Low and Nominal case are included in Section
11.3.  The total energy-related demand by 2000 will be well below
the average flow of many rivers in the region, but will represent
a large proportion of typical low flows and, in some cases, will
equal or exceed the low flow record.  The physical impact of flow
reduction will be most noticeable in the summer and late winter
months when flow is normally at its lowest.  Depending on the ul-
timate distribution and use of water rights, water withdrawals
could reduce flow in some rivers to zero or nearly zero.   Zero
flow does not necessarily mean that there is no water in a stream
bed but merely that it is not moving and therefore does not con-
stitute a flow.
     1 For example, factors that often limit the size and well-
being of animal populations are the amount and condition of the
ecosystem types that are available.  Because many species require
different kinds of habitat, the loss of only a small part of a
population's total range may have a disproportionately large
effect.   Riparian (stream-side) habitat may be especially impor-
tant for food gathering or water supply to some species.  Other
species may require lower elevation habitat for winter forage.
These habitats may be a small portion of either the total range
or habitat available, but they are critical to maintaining a
population.

                              1037
-------
     The water required by energy development would not all be
withdrawn from existing low flows but, in part, would come from
water released from storage in upstream reservoirs.  In most parts
of the eight-state region, large main-stem reservoirs on the
Colorado and Missouri Rivers afford a source of stored water both
for industrial use and maintenance of base flow.  In other loca-
tions, new reservoirs would be needed to sustain flow during per-
iods of low snowmelt and limited rainfall.

     The greatest impacts on aquatic ecosystems could occur in the
San Juan Basin and western Colorado.  Increased irrigation such as
the Navajo Indian Irrigation Project  (NIIP), will consume addi-
tional water and add significant amounts of nutrient-, pesticide-,
and silt-laden runoff to the San Juan; flow depletion could seri-
ously reduce the dilution capacity of the river.  Together, these
factors may alter the extent and quality of the aquatic habitat
in the San Juan River and in the San Juan arm of Lake Powell.

     In western Colorado, heavy water demands could deplete flows
in the White, Green, and Colorado Rivers.  Even if as little as a
quarter of the total water requirement for the area is apportioned
to the White, demand would exceed typical minimum daily flows.
The Colorado, measured near Rifle, commonly experiences minimum
daily flows which will fall short of the total demand projected
for the year 2000.  Problems arising from excessive demand could
be mitigated by using water from the Green River, although this
river also experiences relatively small minimum flows.  Severe
flow depletion could reduce aquatic habitat and the ability to
sustain threatened or endangered species.1

     The Yellowstone River and its tributaries could experience
withdrawals from 25 to 100 percent of typical low flows, depending
on the use of reservoirs to regulate discharge.  The portion of
the Yellowstone from Billings, Montana to the Missouri confluence
is free-flowing, and there is considerable public pressure to keep
it so.  However, the river is 20-100 miles away from many of the
coal deposits; thus a long-distance delivery system typically in-
volving reservoirs would be required.  Irrigation demands on the
Yellowstone are already high and could increase, further reducing
dilution capacity and increasing nutrient and pesticide concentra-
tions brought in by agricultural runoff.  Expanded crop production,


     :A number of techniques for determining in-stream flow needs
for biological resources have been reviewed.  One simplified gen-
eralization suggests that flows be maintained at 25-30 percent of
the average daily flow as much as 55 percent of the time.  However,
such measures tend to be quite unreliable when applied to speci-
fic situations.  Bovee, K.D.  The Determination, Assessment, and
Design of "In-Stream Value" Studies for the Northern Great Plains
Region.  Denver, Colo.:  Northern Great Plains Resources Program,
1975.

                              1038
-------
even on nonirrigated acreage, will add to the pollutant load
entering the river through runoff.

     The two main-stem rivers in the study area will reflect the
cumulative influence of upstream and tributary withdrawals.  As
discussed in Section 11.3, the water required from the Upper Colo-
rado for energy development by the year 2000 amounts to 16-55 per-
cent of the unused water in the river.  The degree to which flow
in the Lower Colorado may be reduced by this demand depends on
the extent of actual use of presently allocated water and on use
of reservoir discharge to maintain base flows.  Depending on the
magnitude of flow reductions, marshlands in the lower valley could
very likely be affected both in extent and species composition.
Loss of these habitats could prove critical to the officially
"threatened" Yuma clapper rail, as well as the black rail and a
large number of waterfowl and shorebirds that find other suitable
wetlands habitat scarce in the area.

     In addition to affecting the aquatic community directly, re-
duced river flow will exert an influence on terrestrial vegetation
(if floodplain water tables are lowered due to insufficient re-
charge from the stream).  Riparian and floodplain habitats are
perhaps the most important individual habitat types in the Great
Plains and Southwestern deserts.  They are used seasonally by
many upland species as wintering habitat or as hunting range, and
they support a distinctive and diverse animal community.  They are
among the most limited in extent of the major habitat types
throughout the eight-state region and are rapidly being fragmented
by urban and agricultural expansion.  Riparian marshes important
to waterfowl would be narrowed in some areas and perhaps lost,
although in others, shoaling and reduced current velocity could
induce a cycle of sedimentation and growth of emergent plants.

B.  Water Quality Changes

     Water consumption in the upper parts of the main river basins
of the study area will reduce both volume and dilution potential
downstream.   In addition, the effect of evaporation on this re-
duced volume will further increase salinity, particularly in the
LCRB.  Without salinity control, salinity levels may increase to
1,100-1,400 mg/S-.1  With successful operation of the Colorado

     JU.S.,  Environmental Protection Agency, Regions VIII and IX.
The Mineral Quality Problem in the Colorado River Basin, Summary
Report and Appendices.  Denver, Colo.:  Environmental Protection
Agency, 1971; Colorado River Board of California.   Need for Con-
trolling Salinity of the Colorado River.  Sacramento, Calif.:
State of California, 1970; and U.S., Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Reclamation, Office of Saline Water.  Colorado River
International Salinity Control Project, Special Report.
N.p.:  Bureau of Reclamation, 1973.

                              1039
-------
salinity control projects,  salinities at or above Imperial Dam
should range between 730 and 1,000 mg/Jl.1   A number of researchers
have found that freshwater  fish can generally live in water with
TDS as high as 7,000 mg/il,  and some salt-tolerant freshwater
species are found in natural waters with concentrations as high
as 20,000 mg/Ji.  On the basis of a broad literature survey, some
state agencies apply a 2,000 mg/£ limit as a water quality crite-
rion for maintenance of freshwater fish and aquatic life.

     The salinities expected to develop in the LCRB appear too low
to cause redistribution or  mortality in fishes.   However,  there is
very little information available for evaluating the possibility
of subacute effects of salinity changes on fish or other aspects
of the aquatic ecosystem.  In-flowing pollutants from energy fa-
cilities, energy conversion waste disposal sites, and municipal
sewage treatment effluent will add stresses, but their magnitude
and effects are not possible to predict given the current state
of knowledge.

C.  Reservoir Construction

     Additional impoundments will be required in the study area
to insure a reliable source of water for energy development.  For
example, in the Yellowstone River Basin new impoundments would be
needed to insure supply during late summer, fall, and winter.3

     The reservoirs needed  for energy developments offer a very
different kind of habitat than that of the original river.  Im-
poundments may reduce turbidity, trap sediment,  and stabilize
chemical variations.  A large reservoir stratifies seasonally into
a warm, productive upper layer and a colder lower layer in which
the dissolved oxygen content may be lowered.  Nongame fish may be
able to compete with game fish more successfully, or game fish
may simply lose much of their suitable spawning areas  (as happened
recently in North Dakota's  Lake Sakakawea).
               J.T.  "Salinity Control Planning in the Colorado
River System," in Flack, J.E., and C.W. Howe, eds.  Salinity in
Water Resources:  Proceedings of the 15th Annual Western Resource
Conference, University of Colorado, July 1973.  Boulder, Colo.:
Merriam Publishing, 1974.

     2McKee, Jack Edward, and Harold W. Wolf.  Water Quality
Criteria, 2nd ed.  Sacramento, Calif.:  Resources Agency of Cali-
fornia,State Water Quality Control Board, 1963.

     3Montana, Department of Natural Resources and Conservation,
Water Resources Division.  Which Way?  The Future of Yellowstone
Water, Draft.  Helena, Mont.:  Montana, Department of Natural
Resources and Conservation, 1976, pp. 25-34.

                               1040
-------
     Some reservoirs can develop highly productive, diverse eco-
systems if they combine good water quality with a variety of habi-
tats, especially shoreline spawning and nursery areas.  If reser-
voirs experience large water-level fluctuations to maintain flow
to energy facilities, then shoreline habitat cannot be maintained.
Generally, reservoir in-flows are contaminated by pollutants and
sediment.  The reservoir sites most vulnerable to this pollution
would be on major rivers in the Great Plains.1  Mountain reservoirs
would generally be less likely to become enriched  (eutrophic) .

     To date, most of the large impoundments in the study area have
been on main-stem rivers.  However, concern about protecting the
remaining free-flowing river habitats, as well as the cost of
building large dams, may induce a trend toward off-stream impound-
ments.  By trapping sediment and releasing steady flows of cool
water, they could improve both the baseline quality of the re-
maining aquatic habitat and the stream's ability to assimilate
municipal wastes.

     In general, reservoirs increase the supply of some species,
such as sport fish, both within the impoundment and frequently
below it.  Although the quality of sport fisheries may improve,
the overall diversity of species could be reduced in areas where
warm-water fishes predominate.  Aquatic habitat will also be frag-
mented by reservoir construction, which will introduce effective
barriers to movement of biota upstream and downstream.  Finally,
reservoir construction and operation will eliminate valuable flood-
plain vegetation or lower its productivity.2  In sum, reservoirs
built to supply water to energy developments  (and other users)
will have a mixture of effects that will increase the abundance
of some species and stress or eliminate populations of others.

11.5.3  Terrestrial Habitat Degradation by Changing Land Use

     As stated in the site-specific impact analyses in Chapters
4-9, the greatest stress to terrestrial ecosystems usually stems
from the loss or degradation of habitat.  Direct consumption of
land for energy facilities can have an adverse influence if the
amount of land required is large (as in the western North Dakota
lignite fields) or if it overlaps areas of critical importance to
animals, such as migratory routes or breeding areas.  When both
industrial and urban land disturbance is scattered through a
           of the lakes and large impoundments in North Dakota
have become highly eutrophic from nutrients and sediment brought
in by agricultural runoff.

     2Johnson, W.C., R.L. Burgess, and W.R. Kaemmerer.  "Forest
Overstory Vegetation and Environment on the Missouri River Flood
plain in North Dakota. "  Ecological Monographs, Vol. 46 (Winter
1976), pp. 59-84.

                              1041
-------
vegetational type, the resulting fragmentation compounds the
effects.  A relatively small amount of the total plant community
is eliminated but leaves no large areas without some degree of
disturbance, and thus reduces the value of the remaining habitat.
Finally, people exert a disturbing influence that typically thins
out animals wary of human settlements.1  We have concluded that
the three major causes of habitat deterioration are:  direct land
use by energy conversion facilities and for urban expansion; dis-
persed recreation in wilderness and backcountry areas; and changes
in land use due to mining and reclamation.  Each is discussed
below.

A.  Land Use by Energy Conversion Facilities and for Urban
    Expansion

     Table 11-53 presents land-use projections for the Low Demand
case;  it includes land use by the energy conversion facilities
(not for coal mines)  and for urban areas.  For 53 sample counties
in the U.S., new urban land use ranged from 0.097 to 0.481 acres
per capita from 1961 to 1970, with an average of 0.173 acre.2
The estimates in Table 11-53 were made using the average.  The
same data, by region, for both the Low and Nominal demand cases
is given in Table 11-54.   As Table 11-54 indicates, the energy
facilities will use more land than the population expansion they
produce.  In all cases, total land use is less than 1 percent of
the land in each group of counties.   In 1980 and 1990, total land
use by energy facilities and the urban population is highest in
New Mexico, but by 2000 it is highest in Montana.  As a percentage
of the land in counties in which energy development is projected
to occur, North Dakota, Montana, and Colorado show the highest
land-use rates (0.42, 0.55, and 0.43 percent).  In the Nominal
Demand case, total land use in 2000 is 2.7 times than in Low De-
mand case for the Rocky Mountains and 1.4 times the Low Demand
case for the Northern Great Plains (Table 11-54).

     The most critical factor related to the effect of land use
is the spatial pattern in which development occurs.  In the case
of urban land,  scattered trailer parks, subdivisions, and indivi-
dual dwellings built on small parcels of land (e.g., less than 5


     1 For example, as indicated in chapters 4-9,  outdoor recrea-
tional activities, particularly use of snowmobiles and other off-
road vehicles,  brings this disturbance into backcounty areas that
have not been previously disturbed.   Disturbances in winter can
be important to some animals due to cidditional metabolic demands
during periods of high physiological stress.

     2Zeimetz,  Kathryn A., et al.   Dynamics of Land Use in Fast
Growth Areas,  Agricultural Economic Report No. 325.  Washington,
D.C.:   U.S., Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service,
1976.

                              1042
-------
TABLE 11-53:
NEW LAND REQUIREMENTS  FOR ENERGY FACILITIES
AND URBAN LAND FOR  LOW DEMAND CASE,  1980-2000
(in acres and percent  of  land in affected
counties)
YEAR
ENERGY FACILITIES
URBAN LAND
TOTAL
COLORADO
Garfield, Mesa, Rio Blanco, and Huerfano Counties
(7,125,760 acres)
1980
1990
2000
2,400 (0.03%)
4,855 (0.07%)
18,680 (0.27%)
623 (0.01%)
5,173 (0.07%)
11,729 (0.16%)
3,023 (0.04%)
10,028 (0.14%)
30,409 (0.43%)
UTAH
Kane, Garfield, Uintah, and Grand Counties
(11,027,840 acres)
1980
1990
2000
2,400 (0.02%)
2,400 (0.02%)
2,960 (0.02%)
381 (0.003%)
502 (0.004%)
900 (0.01%)
2,781 (0.02%)
2,902 (0.03%)
3,860 (0.03%)
NEW MEXICO
San Juan, McKinley, Valencia, Lea, Eddy, Roosevelt,
and Chavez Counties (21,573,120 acres)
1980
1990
2000
37,220 (0.17%)
37,570 (0.17%)
29,535 (0.14%)
2,059 (0.01%)
3,460 (0.02%)
6,176 (0.03%)
39,279 (0.18%)
41,030 (0.19%)
35,711 (0.17%)
MONTANA
Big Horn, Powder River, and Rosebud Counties
(8,542,770 acres)
1980
1990
2000
2,400 (0.03%)
7,200 (0.08%)
21,305 (0.25%)
1,799 (0.02%)
8,460 (0.10%)
25,846 (0.30%)
4,199 (0.05%)
15,660 (0.18%)
47,151 (0.55%)
WYOMING
Campbell, Johnson, Sheridan, Converse, Natrona, Carbon,
Freement, and Sweetwater Counties (31,114,240 acres)
1980
1990
2000
3,800 (0.01%)
10,560 (0.03%)
19,445 (0.06%)
1,678 (0.01%)
6,314 (0.02%)
17,750 (0.06%)
5,478 (0.02%)
16,874 (0.05%)
37,195 (0.12%)
NORTH DAKOTA
Dunn, Mercer, McLean, Oliver, Billings, Bowman, Hettinger,
McKenzie, Slop, Stark, and Williams Counties
(10,625,920 acres)
1980
1990
2000
4,800 (0.05%)
11,210 (0.10%)
24,865 (0.24%)
1,211 (0.01%)
5,225 (0.05%)
19,705 (0,18%)
6,011 (0.06%)
16,435 (0.15%)
44,570 (0.42%)
                           1043
-------
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acres) usually exert a much larger overall affect on habitat than
an equivalent total land use concentrated around a few urban foci.

     Certain habitats are likely to be more vulnerable than others
to fragmentation and disturbance due to residential expansion.
Especially in western Colorado and Utah, rough terrain often limits
feasible residential sites to river and stream valleys, habitats
which are both limited in extent and important to maintaining
overall ecological diversity.  The growing demand for recreational
second homes in scenic mountain areas will also put pressure on
foothill habitats, which are more feasible for home sites than
higher elevations.1  This kind of land use may be expected to de-
velop particularly in the southern foothills of the Rockies bor-
dering the desert of the Colorado Plateau,2 in western Colorado's
oil shale areas, and the Black Hills.  The biological implications
of the development in foothill winter ranges may be greater for
some species than others.  For example, these areas are typically
the limiting factor controlling big game herds of the area.3

B.  Impacts of Increased Outdoor Recreational Pressure

     Regional ecological stresses brought on by energy development
are closely related to the size of human populations in the study
area.  (Anticipated growth in regional human populations is de-
tailed in Section 11.4.2.)  As shown in Table 11-55, the cumulative
percent increase of population projected over the entire eight-
state region (Nominal Demand case) will be more than 10 percent
by 2000, and a disproportionate share of this growth will occur
near areas with high value for backcountry recreation.  As a new
energy impact, the baseline against which this growth in resident
demand should be measured is the projected growth in tourists
(nonresidents).   Estimates made for the UCRB and Missouri River
Basin Comprehensive Framework Studies indicate that it is rea-
sonable to expect this demand to double or triple by the year 2000.
Since the early 1970's, backcountry activities such as hiking,
snowmobiling, jeeping, and backpacking or packing with horses have
been rising in popularity, accounting for 5 to 15 percent of the
total use in individual national forests.
     1 For example, these patterns of land development are described
in Montana State University, Gallatin Canyon Study Team.  The
Gallatin Area:  A Summary Report, Bulletin 344.  Bozeman, Mont.:
Montana State University, Cooperative Extension Service, 1974,
pp. 9-13.

     2 Including the deserts of southern Utah across the Navajo
Reservation to central northern New Mexico.

     3Montana State U.,  Gallatin Canyon Study Team.  Gallatin
Area., pp. 20-21.

                             1045
-------
       TABLE 11-55:
EXPECTED POPULATION INCREASES DUE TO
NOMINAL CASE DEVELOPMENT IN SELECTED
STATES AND THE EIGHT-STATE REGION
YEAR
1975
1980
1990
2000
COLORADO
2,534,000
1,800
46,200
253,500
NEW MEXICO
1,147,000
16,200
27,500
54,200
WYOMING
374 ,000
16,600
45,000
150,000
TOTAL EIGHT-
STATE REGION
9,551,000
95,500
280,900
1,229,600
     Residents and nonresidents generally have different back-
country use patterns.  Residents are more often responsible for
off-road vehicle use, including snowmobiles.   Backpacking, hiking,
and camping may be more evenly divided, while ski developments
generally draw recreationists from lone distances.  An important
limitation in projecting recreational demands is the difficulty
of anticipating trends in recreational styles.  For example, such
technological innovations as snowmobiling are recent phenomena.
Hydrofoil and shallow-draft boats make many western rivers avail-
able for recreational use.   Similar uncertainty exists in land
management practices.  Current trends are to increase restrictions
on wilderness and backcountry areas, but economics encourages the
Forest Service to promote dispersed recreational activities by
building trails and improving access.

     Although the intensity of use is uncertain, the locations of
recreational activities generally fall into three categories:
major established tourist attractions  (e.g.,  Yellowstone and
Grand Teton National Parks); areas near population centers  (e.g.,
Grand Mesa National Forest, near Grand Junction); and recreational
areas with otherwise limited recreational opportunities  (e.g.,
Black Hills National Forest in Wyoming and South Dakota).  Table
11-56 lists some major areas which are likely to experience in-
creased use because of regionwide energy development.  If access
to these areas is limited or controlled, the bulk of the growing
demand will fall on adjacent nondesignated areas which still have
a strong aesthetic appeal.

     Energy-related population growth will probably result in
potential damage to vegetation, and animal communities in four
areas:  western Colorado, the Powder River coal region,  the Four
Corners area, and the lignite fields of western North Dakota.  In
western Colorado, the large population influx is expected to
locate in the midst of prime outdoor recreation areas; conse-
quently, this area is likely to experience the greatest  adverse
ecological impacts'.  The Powder River  and North Dakota areas will
                              1046
-------
TABLE  11-56:
MAJOR BACKCOUNTRY AREAS LIKELY TO  RECEIVE
INCREASED PRESSURE DUE TO  ENERGY DEVELOPMENT


STATE
Colorado












New Mexico


South Dakota
Utah











Wyoming











NATIONAL FORESTS,
PARKS , MONUMENTS ,
AND RECREATION AREAS
Grand Mesa (NF)
Rio Grande (NF)

Routt (NF!

White River (NF)


San Juan (NF)
Black Canyon of the
Gunnison (NM)
Mesa Verde (NP)
Theodore Roosevelt (NP)
Carson (NF)
Sante Fe (NF)
Chaco Canyon (NM)
Black Hills (NF)
Ashley (NF)
Dixie (NF)
Fishlake (NF)
Arches (NP)
Dinosaur (NM)
Zion (NP)
Glen Canyon (RA)
Cedar Breaks (NM)
Capital Reef (NP)
Canyonlands (NP)
Bryce Canyon (NP)
Hovenweep (NM)
Bighorn (NF)
Bridger-Teton (NF)

Medicine Bow (NF)
Shoshone (NF)



Yellowstone (NP)
Grand Teton (NP)
Bighorn Canyon (RA)
Flaming Gorge (RA)

INCLUDED WILDERNESS
AND PRIMITIVE AREAS

La Garita (NA) ,
Upper Rio Grande (PA)
Rawah (WA) ,
Mt. Zirkel (WA)
Maroon Bells/Snowmass (WA) ,
Gore Range/Eagle's Nest (WA) ,
Flat Tops (WA)
San Juan (WA)



	 - 	 - _- _._--__-_-_-_ _____ 	 	
Wheeler Peak (WA)
San Pedro Parks (WA)


High Uintas (PA)











Cloud Peak (PA)
Teton (WA) ,
Bridger (WA)

North Absaroka (WA) ,
Popo Agie (PA) ,
Washakie (WA) ,
Glacier (PA)




       NF = National Forest
       WA = Wilderness Area
       PA = Primitive Area
              NM = National Monument
              NP = National Park
              RA = Recreation Area
                                 1047
-------
also experience substantial population increases; however, in
these areas, outdoor recreationists will be limited in their
choice of wilderness or backcountry areas.  The three closest
such areas  (the Theodore Roosevelt National Memorial Park, the
Black Hills National Forest, and the Bighorn National Forest)
will receive concentrated use.  The Custer National Forest, with
few developed trails, campgrounds, or other facilities, may
remain comparatively unused.  The energy-related population
growth in Utah and New Mexico (Four Corners) is expected to be
comparatively small.  Thus, although high quality wilderness and
backcountry areas surround the area, these areas^should not
experience significant usage increases resulting from regional
energy development.  Some local impacts will occur, as discussed
in Chapters 4 and 5.

C.  Surface Mining and Reclamation

     The impact of surface mining depends on the extent of
mining, the reclamation practices employed, the existing condi-
tions of soil and climate, and the objectives of the reclamation
activity.  Important variables of reclamation are practices in
separation of topsoil and subsoil from the overburden, adjust-
ments to topography, mulching, seeding, fertilization, and irri-
gation.  The variety of existing conditions ranges from the rich
soils of the Northern Great Plains with their low to moderate
rainfall to the poor soils and arid climate of the desert south-
west.  The objectives of reclamation can vary from restoring
natural conditions to establishing range grasses, providing of
cover and forage for wildlife, and production of crops.  Resto-
ration of mined lands for productive use have also included pro-
posals for commercial or recreational activities such as lakes,
golf courses, or race tracks in locations near urban areas.1
This section primarily addresses the process of reclamation for
the establishment of biological resources, which can include
native species, game animals,  or croplands.  Following a dis-
cussion of the extent of mining as projected by the regional
scenario for the eight-state study area, this section identifies
some of the major factors that affect reclamation, and describes
the potential for success and the problems in reestablishing
vegetation.

     Since the early 1970's, a great deal of laboratory and field
research has been performed to determine whether, and by what
means, mine spoils can be reclaimed in the major western coal
fields.  Some critics express uncertainty about the soundness of
long-range predictions based on the results of these short-term


     1For examples of economically successful projects, see:
Ozarks Regional Commission.  Mined-Land Redevelopment:  Kansas,
Missouri, Oklahoma.  Wichita,  Kans.:  Wichita State University,
1973, pp. 6-8.

                              1048
-------
tests.  Their reservations largely arise because of the inevitable
lack of data concerning the long-term success of reclamation.

     The total acreage disturbed through the year 2000 by surface
mining under the two demand cases postulated for the eight-state
scenario is summarized by subarea in Table 11-57.  These subareas
reflect both the geographic distribution of major coal resource
areas and natural groupings of biotic communities.  The Northern
Great Plains includes the coals of eastern Montana and northern
Wyoming and North Dakota's lignite, all part of the Fort Union
Formation; the Intermountain subarea includes coal deposits in
western Colorado and western Wyoming; and, the Southwest Deserts
include the coals of northern New Mexico, Arizona, and southern
Utah.  It is possible to generalize about the conditions that
influence the success of reclamation in these three major sub-
areas within the eight-state study area, as summarized below.

(1)  Existing Conditions Affecting Success of Reclamation

     The climate, soils, and overburden characteristics are the
most important locational factors determining the success of
reclamation.  Precipitation is an important component of climate.
As indicated in the following section, approximately 6-10 inches
of precipitation are generally considered to be the lower limit
for successful revegetation, although the frequency and timing
of this precipitation may be more important than the total
amount.l

     Surface soils within the eight-state study area vary greatly
in sand content, organic content, and depth; and, a single mine
often contains several soil types which differ in their suit-
ability for use in reclamation.  Thus, the following general
observations are regional trends rather than uniformly occurring
conditions.  Rock strata overlaying coal deposits (overburden)
also vary greatly.  However, throughout the three subareas, cer-
tain characteristics typify the major geological formations where
coal is found.

(a)  Northern Great Plains

     Most precipitation in the Northern Great Plains falls in
spring and as summer showers,2 and averages between 12 and 16
inches annually on most coal lands in the area.  The timing of

      1Davis, Grant.  U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest
Service, SEAM Program.  Personal Communication, November 3, 1976.

      2Cook, C.W., R.M. Hyde, and P.L. Sims.  Guidelines for
Revegetation and Stabilization of Surface Mined Areas in the
States, Range Science Series No. I6~.  Fort Collins, Colo.:
Colorado State University, Range Science Department, 1974.

                              1049
-------
      TABLE 11-57:
 SURFACE ACREAGE ULTIMATELY DISTURBED BY
 SURFACE COAL MINING THROUGH THE YEAR 2000

Northern Great Plains3
Intermountain
Southwest Deserts0
LOW DEMAND CASE
622,350
13,860
43,860
NOMINAL DEMAND CASE
861,600
27,730
62,800
  Seam thickness assumed is that for site specific scenarios,
 Chapters 7, 8, and 9.

  One-third of the projected mines are underground and are not
 included; seam thickness assumed for surface mines is 7 feet.

 CA11 projected mines in New Mexico are surface with seam
 thickness given in Chapter 5.  Half of the projected mines in
 Utah are underground and not included; seam thickness for Utah
 surface mines is assumed to be 10 feet.
this rainfall is offset somewhat by the drying effects of the
prevailing northwesterly winds,1 especially in the western part
of this subarea.  As much as 20 percent of the rain that falls
during the growing season may evaporate without penetrating to
plant roots.2  In addition, the climate is erratic,3 and while
the overall climate favors revegetation, periods of lowered
moisture will reduce the success of seedlings or alter the com-
position of vegetation.
     Backer, Paul E.  Rehabilitation Potentials and Limitations
of Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great Plains, General Tech-
nical Report INT-14.  Ogden, Utah:  U.S., Department of Agricul-
ture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment
Station, 1974; and Wall, M.K., and F.M. Sandoval.  "Regional Site
Factors and Revegetation Studies in Western North Dakota," in
Wali, M.K., ed.  Practices and Problems of Land Reclamation in
Western North America.  Grand Forks, N.D.:  University of North
Dakota Press, 1975.
     2Curry, R.R.
mation," in Wali.
"Biogeochemical Limitations on Western Recla-
Land Reclamation in Western North America.
      3Thornthwaite, C.W.  "Climate and Settlement on the Great
Plains," in U.S., Department of Agriculture.  Yearbook of Agri-
culture.  Washington, D.C.:  Government Printing Office, 19-41.
                             1050
-------
     Soils in the area generally have adequate nutrient and
organic matter content to support plant growth.  Topsoils may be
6-30 inches in depth, and weathered subsoil extends as deep as
20 feet in western North Dakota.1  Topsoil varies with topo-
graphy, and soils on steep slopes erode so that deep soils do not
develop.  Soils on level terrain are much deeper.

     High salt content is a problem in some Northern Great
Plains soils.2  These soils are poorly drained, minimally per-
meable with a dry to a hard crust.  Runoff from such soils is
high, and they tend to erode.  Soils in Wyoming and Montana tend
to be deficient in phosphorus, while North Dakota soils may have
insufficient nitrogen.3

     Material below the soil and above the coal  (overburden) in
the Fort Union Formation is typically high enough in sodium to
limit or prevent plant growth.4  Overburden above lignite is more
likely to present sodium problems than is the overburden over-
lying the subbituminous coal of the Fort Union Formation.5  These
spoils are also susceptible to erosion, especially under the
relatively high rainfall of North Dakota.  Overburden generally
contains low or marginally adequate amounts of mineral nutrients;
plant cover almost always responds to nitrogen and phosphorus
            M.K., and F.M. Sandoval.  "Regional Site Factors and
Revegetation Studies in Western North Dakota," in Wali, M.K., ed.
Practices and Problems of Land Reclamation in Western North
America.Grand Forks,KLDak.:University of North Dakota Press,
1975.

     2Sandoval, F.M.,  et al.  "Lignite Mine Spoils in the North-
ern Great Plains:  Characteristics and Potential for Reclamation."
Paper presented before the'Research and Applied Technology Sym-
posium on Mined Land Reclamation.  Pittsburgh, Pa.:  Bituminous
Coal Research, 1973; and Packer, Paul E.  Rehabilitation Poten-
tials and Limitations of Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great
Plains, General Technical Report INT-14.  Ogden, Utah:  U.S.,
Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest
and Range Experiment Station, 1974.

     3Packer.  Rehabilitation of Surface-Mined Land.

     ^Sandoval.  "Lignite Mine Spoils."

     5Packer.  Rehabilitation of Surface-Mined Land.

                             1051
-------
fertilizers.1  Potassium is sometimes adequate,2 but calcium may
be needed.3

(b)  Intermountain Subarea

     The varied topography and climate of the Intermountain sub-
area are the major determinants of the distribution of the three
major vegetation types found over coal lands:  foothill shrubland,
pinyon-juniper woodland, and mountain shrub communities.  The
foothill shrublands generally receive from 9 to more than 15
inches of rainfall annually.  Most precipitation falls as snow,
with erratic showers of rain in spring and early summer.  July
and August tend to be dry, and native plants are often dormant
during this period.  Year-to-year variation is wide, and in
drought years only 6-7 inches of rainfall may occur.4  Pinyon-
juniper woodlands at 4,000-7,000 feet receive 12-15 inches of
rainfall annually.5  Mountain shrub communities above this zone
receive 15-30 inches of rainfall each year, about half of it as
snow.  Generally, precipitation is more favorable to revegetation
at these altitudes than at other elevations in the Intermountain
region.
     ]Meyn, R.L., J.  Holechek, and E.  Sundberg.  "Short and Long
Term Fertilizer Requirements for Reclamation of Mine Spoils at
Colstrip, Montana," in Clark, W.F., ed.  Proceedings of the Fort
Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 3:  Reclamation Section.
Billings, Mont.:  Eastern Montana College, 1975, pp. 266-79; and
Power,  J.F., et al.  "Factors Restricting Revegetation of Strip-
Mine Spoils," in Clark.  Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 3,
pp. 336-46.

     2Sindelar, B.W.,  R.L. Hodder, and M. Majorous.  Surface
Mined Reclamation Research in Montana, Research Report No. 40.
Bozeman,Mont.:Montana Agricultural Experiment Station, 1972.

     3Power et al.  "Factors Restricting Revegetation."

     ''National Academy of Sciences.  Rehabilitation Potential of
Western Coal Lands, a report to the Energy Policy Project of the
Ford Foundation.Cambridge, Mass.:  Ballinger, 1974.

     5Plummer, A.P.,  D.R. Christenson, and S.B. Hansen.  Restor-
ing Big Game Range in Utah, Publication No. 68-3.  Salt Lake
City,Utah:Utah, Department of Natural Resources, Division of
Fish and Game, 1968;  and Water Resources Council, Upper Colorado
Region State-Federal Inter-Agency Group.  Upper Colorado Region
Comprehensive Framework Study.  Denver, Colo.:Water Resources
Council, 1971.

                              1052
-------
     Soils in the Intermountain subarea vary greatly, having
developed over a wide variety of original rock.  Three major
types are found in the coal-producing regions.1  Soils of dry
sagebrush plateaus, mesas, and foothills in Utah are generally
loamy but poor in organic matter and range from 20 to 60 inches
in depth.  Soils of sagebrush and juniper canyonlands, lower
mountain slopes, and barren areas are less than 20 inches deep
and subject to water erosion.  Soils on western Colorado coal
lands are loamy, rich in organic matter, and contain a variety
of vegetation types; subsoils may contain clay and may have
permeability problems.  These soils are typically deep and are
often farmed for dryland crops.  All three of these soil types
may require irrigation.

     Because of the area's variable geology, generalizations
about overburden characteristics cannot be made.  For example,
in western Colorado, mine spoils from the Mesa Verde formation
are predominately fragmented hard rock and have low water holding
capacity compared to finer materials.  Therefore, vegetation is
difficult to establish and maintain.  These spoils are low in
both available phosphorus and nitrogen needed for plant growth.2

     Although part of the Mesa Verde formation, overburden in the
western Wyoming Kemmerer coal fields varies considerably.  Acid-
producing iron pyrite is present in some strata, while others
are alkaline.  The salinity, ease of erosion, high aluminum con-
tent, and low pH (acidity/alkalinity) of some overburden mate-
rials make plant growth difficult.  The overburden in this area
generally contains enough mineral nutrients to accommodate the
growth of plants in a greenhouse, although additional nitrogen
helps.3

(c)  Southwestern Deserts

     Precipitation in this area is usually insufficient for
satisfactory revegetation of mine spoils without supplemental
irrigation.  Annual rainfall averages 5-8 inches, but in
     1Water Resources Council, Upper Colorado Region State-Federal
Inter-Agency Group.  Upper Colorado Region Comprehensive Frame-
work Study.  Denver, Colo. :  Water Resources' Council, 1971.

     2Berg, W.A.  "Revegetation of Land Disturbed by Surface
Mining in Colorado," in Wali, M.K., ed.  Practices and Problems
of Land Reclamation in Western North America.  Grand Forks,
N. Dak.:  University of North Dakota Press, 1975.

     3Lang, R.L.  "Reclamation of Strip Mine Spoil Banks in Wyo-
ming."  University of Wyoming Agricultural Experiment Station
Research Journal, Vol. 51 (1971).

                              1053
-------
exceptional years may range from 3 to 12 inches.l  Rain falls
largely in late summer (July through September); spring and fall
seasons are generally dry.2  Rainfall is often very irregular,3
and conditions favorable for seeding and establishing plants may
occur naturally only 1 in 10 years.1*  The timing of rainfall is
particularly critical; experimental work with one native grass on
wild lands in New Mexico showed that it could be planted with 80
percent success during only 2 weeks in the year; success fell
rapidly to zero both before and after this period.5  In areas
such as Arizona's Black Mesa, high, gusty winds occur throughout
the year.  This enhances evaporation and thus results in inade-
quate soil moisture, even though rainfall may reach 12 inches
annually.6

     Soils in the arid coal regions of Arizona and New Mexico are
generally poorly developed, hold little moisture, and are high in
salt content.  Moreover,  these soils are often sandy, and the loss
of vegetation through overgrazing leads to erosion.  Drifting
     National Academy of Sciences.  Rehabilitation Potential
of Western Coal Lands, a report to the Energy Policy Project of
the Ford Foundation.  Cambridge, Mass.:  Ballinger, 1974.

     2Aldon, E.R., and H.W. Springfield.  "Problems and Techniques
in Revegetating Coal Mine Spoils in New Mexico," in Wali, M.K.,
ed.  Practices and Problems of Land Reclamation in Western North
America.  Grand Forks, N. Dak.:  University of North Dakota Press,
1975.

     3Gould, W.L., D. Rai,  and P.L. Wierenga.  "Problems in
Reclamation of Coal Mine Spoils in New Mexico," in Wali.  Land
Reclamation in Western North America.

     I*Aldon and Springfield.  "Revegetating Coal Mine Spoils."

     5Aldon, E.F.  "Establishing Alkali Sacaton on Harsh Sites
in the Southwest."  Journal of Range Management, Vol. 28 (March
1975), pp. 129-92.

     6Thames, J.L., and T.R. Verma.  "Coal Mine Reclamation in
the Black Mesa and the Four Corners Areas of Northeastern Ari-
zona," in Wali.  Land Reclamation in Western North America.

                              1054
-------
and blowing soils can easily bury seedlings or reduce plant cover
by abrasion.1

     Mine spoils in the Southwest may also pose problems.  For
example, in the Fruitland Formation in the San Juan Basin, the
sandstones and shales generally contain excessive amounts of
sodium, low quantities of phosphorus, and variable amounts of
nitrogen.2  The development of soil-based mineral cycling systems
takes place slowly.  Centuries might be required before vegetation
stabilizes,3 and 10-30 years may be required for natural revege-
tation.4

(2)   Probable Success of Revegetation

     The success of a reclamation effort and the techniques
needed to achieve it are very much influenced by the objectives
of a reclamation program and local features.  The differences in
soil and overburden characteristics described above may require
slightly different treatments between areas within a single mine,
and soils and underlying strata can vary markedly in their suit-
ability for reclamation within a few miles.5  However, it is
difficult to predict the success of revegetation in many western
locations on the basis of available experimental results and

     !National Academy of Sciences.   Rehabilitation Potential of
Western Coal Lands, a report to the Energy Policy Project of the
Ford Foundation,  Cambridge, Mass.:   Ballinger, 1974; Thames, J.L.,
and T.R. Verma.  "Coal Mine Reclamation in the Black Mesa and the
Four Corners Areas of Northeastern Arizona," in Wali, M.K., ed.
Practices and Problems of Land Reclamation in Western North
America.  Grand Forks, N. Dak.:  University of North Dakota Press,
1975; Gould, W.L., D.  Rai, and P.L.  Wierenga.   "Problems in
Reclamation of Coal Mine Spoils in New Mexico," in Wali.  Land
Reclamation in Western North America; and Aldon, E.F., and H.W.
Springfield."Problems and Techniques in Revegetating Coal Mine
Spoils in New Mexico," in Wali.  Land Reclamation in Western
North America.

     2Gould, Rai, and Wierenga.  "Problems in Reclamation."

     3NAS.   Rehabilitation Potential of Western Coal Lands.

     ''Cook, C.W., R.M. Hyde, and P.L. Sims.  Guidelines for Reveg-
etation and Stabilization of Surface Mined Areas in the Western
States, Range Science Series No.  16.  Fort Collins, Colo.:  Colo-
rado State University, Range Science Department, 1974.

     5For example, soils of poor texture and low organic content
can be improved by mulching.  Soils of low nutrient content can
be fertilized with nitrogen, phosphorus, or other limiting ele-
ments.

                               1055
-------
field observations.  As indicated above, local climatic condi-
tions and the unreliability of rainfall over most of the area can
potentially make the difference between success and failure in
revegetation efforts.  Further, in most areas, current experience
covers a period of 6 years or less, which is not sufficient for
the long-term stability of revegetated areas to be assessed.l

     Reclamation efforts in the western U.S. will be limited most
consistently by the timing and quantity of moisture available to
plants.2  The amount of precipitation and its seasonal distribu-
tion largely determine the likelihood of successful revegetation,
even though soils vary in their ability to retain the amount that
falls in a manner which makes it available to plants.

     As indicated in the previous descriptions, areas generally
receiving an average of 10 or more inches of rainfall per year
can be made to support some plant growth without supplemental
irrigation.3  When mined lands have been graded with care and
planted properly with suitable species, some areas with as little
as 6 inches of rain have been revegetated.4  In most of the semi-
arid West, however, rainfall varies widely from year to year.
Under these circumstances, periodic dry years or droughts lasting
several years must be expected, and the success of revegetation
at such times will be curtailed, especially in marginal areas.5
The timing of rainfall is crucial to the establishment of plant


     1 Farmer, E.E., et al.  Revegetation Research on the Decker
Coal Mine in Southeastern Montana, Research Paper INT-162.  Ogden,
Utah:  U.S., Department of Agriculture,, Forest Service, Inter-
mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 1974.

     2See for example:  National Academy of Sciences.  Rehabili-
tation Potential of Western Coal Lands, a report to the Energy
Policy Project of the Ford Foundation7 Cambridge, Mass.:
Ballinger, 1974; Cook, C.W., R.M. Hyde, and P.L. Sims.  Guide-
lines for Revegetation and Stabilization of Surface Mined Areas
in the Western States, Range Science Series No. 16.  Fort Collins,
Colo.:  Colorado State University, Range Science Department, 1974;
Packer, Paul E.  Rehabilitation Potentials and Limitations of
Surface-Mined Land in the Northern Great Plains, General Tech-
nical Report INT-14.  Ogden, Utah:  U.S., Department of Agricul-
ture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment
Station, 1974.

      3NAS.  Rehabilitation Potential of Western Coal Lands.

     ''Davis, Grant.  U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Ser-
vice, SEAM Program.  Personal Communication, November 3, 1976.

     5NAS.  Rehabilitation Potential of Western Coal Lands; and
Packer.  Rehabilitation of Surface-Mined Land.

                              1056
-------
cover.  A lack of precipitation shortly after planting can reduce
seedling success, and a difference of only 1-2 inches over the
entire growing season may have significant consequences depending
on its timing.  Because of this, there will be a significant
number of cases where reclamation efforts will either fail or be
only marginally successful, especially where poor soil or top-
soil characteristics are combined with an arid climate.  Erratic
rainfall patterns over the lifetime of a given mine may also be
expected in years when seedling failure is unavoidable.

     Over the long term, it will probably be possible to estab-
lish a cover of range grasses capable of containing erosion on
most sites in the Northern Great Plains and in the higher foot-
hill coal fields receiving adequate rainfall.  However, this
long-term trend may be punctuated by setbacks from periods of
drought; provision for irrigation would mitigate this.  During
these periods, intensive management will be required for both
seeded and established vegetation.  Revegetation of some of the
drier foothill sites will have a lesser chance for success,
depending primarily on stresses over and above those arising
from climate  (such as those resulting from soil salinity and
provisions for irrigation).  Finally, in view of experience and
the many adverse influences arrayed against desert sites, revege-
tation will be difficult unless the sites are prepared carefully
and seedlings are planted, intensively managed, and irrigated,
with grazing and public access strictly controlled.

(3)  Reclamation for Specific Biological Objectives

     Four biological objectives for reclamation are restoring
natural vegetation, providing wildlife habitat, establishing
livestock forage, and establishing croplands.  Reestablishing
native vegetation is difficult, and in some instances the orig-
inal vegetation has not been present for decades or longer.
Reclamation for wildlife is a more complicated process than
restoration .for livestock forage or cropland use.  In contrast to
grazing or farming, wildlife restoration must meet the needs of
a relatively large number of animal species, which in turn
requires a greater variety of plant species.  Site character-
istics, such as diverse topography and exposure, also play a
large part in determining both the variety of vegetation that
becomes established and the value of the habitat to wildlife.
One example of the beneficial effects of diverse topography on
wildlife values is the Knife River Coal Company's Beulah mine,
which has helped maintain or increase the area's populations of
grouse, pheasant, deer, and other small vertebrates.  Prior to
the establishment of state requirements for grading to a gently
rolling contour, the spoils were left standing with only the
ridgetops flattened.  Planted shrub, grass, and forb species,
selected for their food and cover value, have established thick
stands in the valleys between the close-set spoil ridges where
runoff provides high soil moisture content.  Wildlife finds both

                              1057
-------
food and shelter from winter storms, which typically cause large
losses of upland wildlife.  Federal Reclamation Standards and the
western states now require mined lands to be regraded to some
extent.

     In addition to topographical variability, wildlife diversity
and abundance are related to the spatial patterning of vegeta-
tion.  A mosaic of grasses, low shrubs and thickets, and taller
trees, combined with available free water, are necessary for many
western species 'such as sharptail and sage grouse, jackrabbits
and cottontails, and many birds of prey.  A combination of nutri-
tive food plants adequate to meet the varied needs of grazers,
browsers, and seed and fruit eaters is necessary to reestablish
the full complement of native fauna, including insects that are
important food sources.

     Several factors limit the success of woody plants.  First,
these plants grow slower than grasses and forbs.  To speed the
process, nursery stock may be planted, but this is expensive.
Second, once planted, young shrubs and trees need protection
from wildlife and livestock for 10-15 years before they can
tolerate browsing.  Third, natural rainfall may be insufficient
or competition from other plants for the limited moisture on
mine spoils may inhibit success.

     Reclamation may attempt to restore grazing alone, and in the
Northern Great Plains, particularly North Dakota, mined land may
be planted to crops.  This would favor animal species character-
istic of early grassland succession rather than woody vegetation.
In these "replacement" or successional communities in the North-
ern Great Plains, antelope, deer, grouse, jackrabbits, and a
variety of small vertebrates will be infrequent on mined lands
restored for grazing.  Burrowing animals will be limited by the
texture of the spoils themselves; black-footed ferrets and bur-
rowing owls, normally associated closely with prairie dog col-
onies will also be affected.  Intermountain cool areas are less
homogeneous, and thus it is more difficult to specify what changes
in wildlife communities may take place.  Unless shrub cover is
restored on foothill areas, however, deer and elk will be unable
to use mined lands for winter range, and many western slope coals
now underlie present big game winter ranges.  As discussed in
Chapter 5, strip mine areas in the desert southwest have already
experienced stress from overgrazing, with an attendant loss of
soil that will make restoration of rangelands more difficult.
Also, even if successfully restored, these lands will likely be
of low productivity.

     Croplands may also be established in reclaimed areas and
will likely expand in the eight-state region.  The growth of
                              1058
-------
agriculture may occur in the same time frame as the energy devel-
opment scenario.  A recent study1 reports that new cropland is
currently added at a nationwide rate of 1.25 million acres per
year.  At this rate, some 31 million acres will be brought under
cultivation by the year 2000.  However, a rapidly growing world
food demand may result in the acceleration of agricultural
expansion.  Presently, only 81 percent (380 million acres) of
the arable land in the U.S. is cropped.  Thus, a theoretical
maximum of 90 million acres could be added by 2000, not counting
marginal lands requiring drainage or irrigation.  In addition to
new cropland being brought under cultivation, existing cropland
is currently being lost at a national rate of 2.5 million acres
per year to highways and urbanization.  Since 1935, 100 million
acres have been lost because of soil erosion.  Most of these
represent lost native ecosystems and wildlife habitat  (although
farms abandoned due to erosion eventually regain their value as
habitat, at least for successional species).  Thus, between 1975
and 2000 the nation may lose between 93 and 152 million acres
of rangeland and native ecosystems from activities other than
energy development, and reclamation for agricultural purposes
may have a high priority according to agricultural interests.
By comparison, land-use estimates for mining  (Nominal case,
Table 11-57) presented in this section with the potential for
reclamation total only 0.95 million acres, much of which may
utlimately be used for crops.2

11.5.4  Ecological Impacts of Sulfur Pollution

     A great deal of concern exists concerning the potential
damage of widespread SOz emissions on vegetation in the western
energy resource states.3  For example, livestock grazing is a
major economic activity, and the potential threat of energy
development to rangeland productivity can become a major issue
in the eight-state area.  Forests and other vegetation are also
regarded as important resources.  In view of projected increases
     ^imentel, D.,  et al.  "Land Degradation:  Effects on Food
and Energy Resources?""Science, Vol. 194 (October 8, 1976),
pp. 149-55.

     2Highest land demands occur in the Northern Great Plains
where reclamation for cropland is most feasible.

     3Gordon, C.C.,  and P.C. Tourangeau.  "Biological Effects of
Coal-Fired Power Plants," in Clark, W.F., ed.  Proceedings of the
Fort Union Coal Field Symposium, Vol. 5:  Terrestrial Ecosystems
Section.  Billings,  Mont.:  Eastern Montana College, 1975,
pp. 509-30.

                              1059
-------
in livestock grazing of up to 80 percent by the year 2000, 1  even
small, chronic declines in productivity over large areas of the
West could have measurable economic impacts.

     The impacts of S02 emissions, both directly and through the
formation of sulfates, including acid rain, have received much
attention, and adverse effects on vegetation have been widely
documented.  However, two major knowledge gaps prevent investi-
gators from using regional S02 emission figures to predict the
possibility of chronic S02 damage or acid rainfall:  insufficient
knowledge of the mechanisms by which S0;> emissions may be trans-
lated into particulate sulfate fallout rates or low pH rainfall,
and inadequate sophistication of dispersion models at a regional.
level.2

     According to the air impact analysis in Section 11.2, SO2
emissions in 2000 (Nominal case) would reach 663,000 tons per
year  (tpy) in North Dakota and 1,360,000 tpy in Montana with
scrubbers removing 80 percent of the S02.  Impacts in the oil
shale development region, especially in Rio Blanco County,
Colorado, are further complicated by the irregularity of the
surrounding terrain, which can permit pollutants to be trapped
in low-lying areas or cause plumes to impact on prominent ridges
or mountainsides.  Although it is not possible to make definitive
statements about the likelihood of either particulate sulfate
fallout or acid rain in these areas, the question may be approached
by analogy with experiments or case histories as described below.

     The effects of air pollution on the structure and function
of plant communities can be separated into three classes:3  unde-
tectable or potentially beneficial effects; chronic harmful
effects; and acute harmful effects.  The term "harmful" effects
here refers to reduction in plant growth or productivity.  Unde-
tectable or potentially beneficial impacts are associated with


      Northern Great Plains Resources Program.  Effects of Coal
Development in the Northern Great Plains:  A Review of Major
Issues and Consequences at Different Rates of Development.  Den-
ver, Colo.:  Northern Great Plains Resources Program, 1975.

      2Ground-level concentrations used in this section are
derived from dispersion models which may have an error range of
up to 50 percent.  However, conservative assumptions built into
the models are thought to result in predicted levels high enough
to compensate for this error.  The net result is a figure which
may exceed, but probably does not underestimate, actual field
conditions.

      3Smith, W.H.  "Air Pollution—Effects on the Structure and
Function of the Temperate Forest Ecosystem."  Environmental Pol-
lution, Vol. 6  (February 1974), pp. 111-29.

                             1060
-------
low pollution loads.  Although there may be no detectable impact
on individual plants, pollutants enter the mineral cycle of the
ecosystem via normal pathways.  This effect may not be harmful
and may improve productivity if a particular mineral  (such as
sulfur) is in short supply.

     Chronic harmful effects arise from intermediate pollution
loads that result in damage to susceptible plant species, such
as pines, typically over periods of months or a few years.  Such
effects may include lowered productivity, reduced reproduction,
or increased susceptibility to disease or insect infestation.
Where species are affected differently, competitive relationships
may be altered and the composition of species in a community
changed.   Acid rain can be placed in this category.  In addition
to its direct impacts on plants, acid rain is believed to cause
increased leaching of nutrients from soils.  The net effect on the
entire plant community may be to reduce biomass and productivity.
This loss of mineral nutrients may be reversible only after very
long periods of time, if at all.  Also, ecosystem impacts may not
be simply additive because changed competitive relationships can
bring about the dominance of new species able to tolerate pollu-
tion stress better than competitors.

     Acute impacts occur when ambient pollutant concentrations
are high enough to cause acute damage to plants.  If sufficiently
severe, this impact can eliminate species from the affected
community.  Since woody plants are often more susceptible to
acute damage than are herbaceous species, loss of dominants may
change the physical structure of the vegetation.  Extensive veg-
etation loss results in erosion and affects mineral cycling
through direct soil loss.  In most ecosystems, these effects will
combine to reduce the amount of primary plant production avail-
able to the animal community; further ecosystem simplification
can take place as a result of reduced energy flow through the
food web.

     Acute and chronic impacts lessen the economic value of the
vegetation and reduce its complexity and, perhaps, its ability
to respond adaptively to other stresses such as drought.  Low-
level impacts may actually increase productivity in some circum-
stances.   The following discussion covers acute impacts first,
followed by chronic and low-level effects.

A. » Acute Impacts

     Leaf injury (damage) from short-term exposure generally
requires very high levels of SC>2.  Concentrations of SC-2 which
experimentally produce acute damage in 2-7 hours for a number of
common western range grasses, important wildlife browse plants,
trees, and crops are tabulated in Table 11-58; these experiments
indicate that damage occurs between 0.4 and 10 parts per million
(ppm).  Results were selected to show the effects of exposures

                             1061
-------
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1063
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correspondinq roughly to the shortest averaging times  (3-hour and
24-hour averages) used to calculate maximum ground-level SO?
concentrations for the six site-specific scenarios.  Extreme high
values, resulting from plume impaction on high terrain, may be as
much as 0.43 ppm,1 while in the ventilated areas with flat terrain
and lower sulfur coal highest 3-hour maxima are only to 0.13 ppm.2
Power plants, Synthoil plants, and TOSCO II (the Oil Shale Company)
plants create the highest 3-hour average concentrations.  These
maxima approach concentrations that have produced experimental
injury in ponderosa pine and alfalfa.  More typical 3-hour periods
produce ground-level concentrations one-tenth to one-hundredth as
high.

     However, large areas of vegetation would not be expected to
experience acute toxicity under the worst dispersion conditions
considered.  High ground- level concentrations result from direct
impaction of a plume on high terrain.  The highest modeled 3-hour
concentration, 0.43 ppm from the Escalante power plant, occurs
under these circumstances.   Here, concentrations remain consis-
tently high throughout the averaging period, but the affected
area is quite small (roughly 1 or 2 square miles) .

     For most scenarios, ground- level concentrations will be 3-10
times lower than concentrations known to cause acute injury in
fumigation experiments.  In some scenarios, however, irregular
terrain may result in infrequent plume impaction that could raise
ground concentrations to levels which may cause acute damage to
sensitive species.  Some visible damage to ponderosa pine could
occur within limited areas, especially in southern Utah and
western Colorado.  Elsewhere, sensitive species may be exposed to
S02 levels near, but below, known damage levels.  Evergreens are
susceptible year-round, but the worst dispersion conditions over
most of the eight-state region occur in the -winter when most
vegetation species are in^ a seasonal minimum of activity.

B.  Chronic Impacts

     Chronic damage to plants typically occurs at much lower con-
centrations than does acute damage.  The premature loss of
needles observed near the Mount Storm power plant in West
Virginia3 was associated with average SO2 concentrations of 0.01
          the Escalante Power Plant, see Chapter 4.

     2For the Gillette scenario, see Chapter 7.

     3U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Air Pollution Con-
trol Office.  Mount Storm, West Virginia/German, Maryland and
Luke, Maryland/Kaiser, West VirginiaT"  Air Pollution Abatement
Activity , APTD-0656.  Research Triangle Park, N.C.:  Environ-
mental Protection Agency, 1971.

                             1064
-------
ppm, although 1-hour maxima as high as 0.36 ppm were recorded.
Reductions of 15 percent in the yield weights of grain have been
reported for winter wheat under chronic 862 levels averaging
0.015-0.05 ppm.,1  Chronic damage to alfalfa has been observed at
concentrations between 0.024 and 0.051 ppm.2  All these species
are especially sensitive to S02.

     Analysis of air impacts in the site-specific scenarios showed
that multiple plume interactions seldom occur, and when they do,
their cumulative effect on ground-level concentrations is less
than the peak levels modeled for the individual plants.  Conse-
quently, in this regional discussion where the exact locations of
the emission sources are not known, it is assumed that maximum
ground-level concentrations can still be estimated in terms of
individual plants, with the understanding that these impacts may
be felt in many locations in the region as a whole.3

     Using 24-hour averaging times, worst-case concentrations
range between 0.001 ppm (modified in situ shale processing, Rifle)
and 0.12 ppm (power plant, Escalante).  Assuming the cut-off point
for chronic damage is 0.01 ppm, an examination of the peak 24-hour
averages predicted for the local scenarios shows that concentra-
tions exceeding this level can generally be expected downwind of
power plants, at least at some time.  However, these are infre-
quent peaks and cover shorter periods than those usually associated
with observed chronic S02 damage to plants in the field.

     Ecological damage thought to result from acid rainfall has
been documented in Scandinavia from long-distance transport of
sulfates from England and in Germany's industrialized Ruhr
     ^uderian, R., and H. Stratmann.  Forschungsberichte des
Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen No. 1118.  Koln:  Westdeutscher Verlag,
1968, p~. 5l and Guderian,R. , and H. Stratmann.  Forschungs-
berichte des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen No. 1920.  Koln:
Westdeutscher Verlag, 1968, p. 3.

     2Guderian, R., and H. Van Haut.  "Detection of S02 Effects
Upon Plants."  Staub-Reinhaltung der Luft, Vol. 30 (1970),
pp. 22-35.

     Background S02 data are scarce in the western states.  How-
ever, existing figures indicate that typical levels are only a
few yg/m3, too small to make a difference significant to plants
when added to calculated ground-level concentrations arising
from energy facilities.

                              1065
-------
district.1  In New Hampshire, rainfall acidification due to
emissions from the urban industrial complexes of New England
has also been documented.2  From these and other studies, the
following points emerge:

   • Mechanisms of Acidification.  The mechanisms by which
     rainfall is acidified are just now beginning to be
     understood qualitatively, and quantitative predictions
     of the effects on rainfall pH of given SO2 emissions
     cannot yet be made.  While some investigators have con-
     cluded that rainfall pH is governed by strong acids
     (such as sulfuric acid), others have presented evidence
     that weak acids may also be involved.   In spite of
     this lack of agreement,  it is apparent that other ions
     besides sulfates are involved in determining the pH of
     rain.  The major species appear to be sulfates, nitrates,
     and chlorides.1*  In addition to industrial sources,
     large amounts of nitrogen apparently enter the atmos-
     phere because of the use of ammonia and nitrate fer-
     tilizers.5  Atmospheric chloride ions, contributing to
     the formation of hydrochloric acid,  also originate from
     the sea.

   • Pathways into Terrestrial Ecosystems.  Much of the
     sulfur reaching "Sweden has been shown to be in the form
     of neutral ammonium sulfate compounds.  These particles,
     which are thought to form catalytically or photochemically


     lBolin, B., Chairman.  Sweden's Case Study Contributions to
the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment—Air Pol-
lution Across International Boundaries;  The Impact on the "Envi-
ronment of Sulfur in Air and Precipitation.  Stockholm:  Royal
Ministry for Foreign Affairs,Kingl.Boktrychereit, P.A.
Norsledt et Soner, 1971.

     2Whittaker, R.H., et al.  "The Hubbard Brook Ecosystem
Study:   Forest Biomass and Production."  Ecological Monographs,
Vol. 44 (Spring 1974), pp. 233-54.

     3Frohliger, J.O., and R. Kane.  "Precipitation: .Its Acidic
Nature."  Science, Vol. 189 (August 8, 1975), pp. 455-57.

     ^Likens, G.E., and F.H.  Bormann.  "Acid Rain:  A Serious
Regional Environmental Problem."  Science, Vol. 184  (June 14,
1974),  pp. 1176-79.

     5Tabatabai, M.S., and J.M. Laflen.  "Nutrient Content of
Precipitation Over Iowa," abstract in First International Sympo-
sium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem, Program and
Abstracts.  Columbus, Ohio:  Ohio State University, Atmospheric
Sciences Program, 1975.

                             1066
-------
     in the air, enter the ecosystem as dry fallout.   However,
     when the ammonia is absorbed by plants, both the remain-
     ing ammonia and the released sulfate ions tend to acidify
     soils.1  Forest vegetation tends to filter out such par-
     ticulates.2  This may expose forests differentially to
     acidification problems.   However, airborne alkaline or
     calcareous dust may increase the pH of rainfall  and
     thereby counteract the effect of acid-forming substances
     in the air.3  It has been suggested that the pH  of rain-
     fall depends jointly on atmospheric sulfur loading, the
     amount of dense forest vegetation in the area, and the
     extent of calcareous or limestone soils.1*

     Geographic Variation.  Observations of chronic damage
     from acid rainfall are not always consistent geograph-
     ically.  Recent efforts to use tree-ring data to docu-
     ment the impacts of region-wide reductions in rainfall
     pH in New England and Tennessee failed to reveal a
     statistically significant trend on a regional level,
     despite the evidence of the Hubbard Brook Study  in New
     Hampshire.5  Similarly,  using the same method, no
     consistent trend in forest productivity has been
     ^ochinger, L.S., and T.A.  Seliga.  "Acid Precipitation and
the Forest Ecosystem:  A Report from the First International Sym-
posium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem."  Journal
of the Air Pollution Control Association, Vol. 25 (November 1975),
pp. 1103-5; Brosset, C.  "The Role of Acid Particles in Acidifi-
cation," abstract in First International Symposium on Acid Precip-
itation and the Forest Ecosystem, Program and Abstracts.  Colum-
bus, Ohio:  Ohio State University, Atmospheric Sciences Programs,
1975.

     2Davis, B.L., et al.  The Black Hills as a "Green Area" Sink
for Atmospheric Pollutants, First Annual Report,prepared for the
USDA Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Report
75-8.  Rapid City, S.Dak.:  South Dakota School of Mines and Tech-
nology, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, 1975.

     3Cooper, H.B.H., et al.  "Chemical Composition Affecting the
Formation of Acid Precipitation," abstract in Symposium on Acid
Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem.

     ^Winkler, E.M.  "Natural Dust and Acid Rain," abstract in
Symposium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem.

     5Cogbill, C.V.  "The Effect of Acid Precipitation on Tree
Growth in Eastern North America," abstract in Symposium on Acid
Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem.

                              1067
-------
     discovered in Norway.1   In the northeastern U.S.,  a
     recent investigation found that the rate of nutrient
     loss from upland forest watersheds is still quite  low,
     in spite of the rising acidity of rainfall.2

     Acid rain has also been associated with single large sources,
including large power generation complexes.   In studies of the
effects of multiple-plant generation complexes in West  Virginia
and Tennessee, premature pine needle drop, damage to crops, and
reduced soil fertility were correlated with acid rain.   In these
cases, S02 emissions were generally greater than individual plant
projections in this technology assessment.3   SO2 emissions den-
sities at levels projected for the Nominal case for the Powder
River Region in the year 2000 (see Section 11.2)  are about one-
third the SO2 emissions densities of the highest industrialized
states (e.g., Ohio) in the East, assuming 80 percent SO2 removal
from power plants.  However, in eastern locations, rainfall is
four to six times greater than in the eight-state study area.
Acid rainfall due to lower emissions densities and rainfall seems
less likely to become a regional problem in the eastern U.S.

C.  Low-Level Effects

     Atmospheric dispersion alone will likely result in low-level
effects around most or all of the large facilities sited in the
eight-state study area.  In some areas, especially where disper-
sion is rapid  (as in Wyoming), sulfur additions may be  so small
as to exert no detectable influence on either soil sulfur levels
or plant productivity.  Slightly larger sulfur inputs may enter
the sulfur cycle through direct absorption by plants as S02, dry
fallout, or rain scavenging.
      ^brahamsen, G., and B. Tveite.  "Impacts of Acid Precipita-
tion on Coniferous Forest Ecosystems," abstract in First Inter-
national Symposium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Eco-
system, Program and Abstracts.  Columbus,Ohio:Ohio State
University,Atmospheric Sciences Program, 1975.

      2Johnson, N.M. , R.C. Reynolds, arid G.E. Likens.  "Atmos-
pheric Sulfur:  Its Effect on the Chemical Weathering of New
England."  Science, Vol. 177  (August 11, 1972), pp. 514-16.

      3There are four plants in the Mount Storm area, totaling
3,400 MWe and emitting 788,000 tons of S02 in 1973.  These plants
burn high-sulfur coal without scrubbers.  The Shawnee plant in
Tennessee is rated at 1,750 MWe and emits 228,600 tons per year
(1973).  By contrast, the hypothetical Colstrip power plant will
generate 3,000 MWe but will burn low-sulfur or medium-sulfur
coal with scrubbers; its yearly emissions will be 14,000 tons.

                              1068
-------
11.5.5  Summary of Regional Ecological Impacts

     The effects described above will change some existing pat-
tern of stresses to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems.  Consump-
tive water use will result in flow depletion on some rivers.
Especially vulnerable are the San Juan, the White, the Upper
Colorado, and the Yellowstone.  Cumulative impacts will also have
adverse effects on the lower Colorado and Missouri.  In-stream
flow needs to protect aquatic ecosystems have not been estab-
lished for most of these rivers, but it is expected that with-
drawals could produce adverse impacts in several drainages.  In
addition to the physical impact of flow reduction, loss of dilu-
tion capacity increases the risk of harmful impacts due to the
discharge of municipal effluents, agricultural runoff, and con-
taminated groundwater discharge.  However, increased salinity
does not appear to be a serious ecological problem.  Construction
of water supply systems may involve placing reservoirs on smaller
tributary rivers and streams.  These reservoirs can be beneficial
in that they will trap sediment, provide fishery habitat, and can
be used to regulate downstream flows.  However, they also may
interfere with spawning runs, destroy valuable riparian habitat,
and build up excessive nutrient enrichment from agricultural
runoff.

     Increased backcountry recreational pressure may become a
serious problem to some terrestrial ecosystems, especially high
alpine areas, high- and mid-elevation mountain valleys, and adja-
cent desert watercourses.  These habitats are critical to
maintaining present levels of ecological diversity and are
limited in extent.  The heaviest population-related impacts will
occur in the Black Hills, the Bighorn Mountains, and the moun-
tainous areas surrounding the Colorado oil shale deposits.

     Because of the extensive land use for strip mining in the
Northern Great Plains, reclamation will be important.  Reclama-
tion success depends primarily on the extent and timing of rain-
fall, soil type and overburden characteristics, and the resiliency
of plant and animal communities in restoration.  The Southwestern
deserts will be most difficult to reclaim because of low rainfall,
poor soil characteristics, and overgrazing.  Revegetation will
probably be successful in the remainder of the eight-state region,
but wildlife abundance and diversity will be reduced if grazing
or crop production are the major reclamation objectives.

     Development of large numbers of SO2 emission sources over
the western region is not expected to result in widespread damage
to vegetation.  Although the fate of sulfates in the air is
poorly understood, comparison with recorded cases suggests that
acid rainfall is unlikely to become a widespread problem.  Acute
damage to vegetation is expected only where rough terrain causes
plume impaction.  The oil shale area of western Colorado is the


                              1069
-------
only region in which multiple sources are expected to result in
cumulative impacts which could be chronically damaging to vegeta-
tion over areas of more than 1 or 2 square miles.

11.6  TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS

11.6.1  Introduction

     Development of energy resources in the eight-state study area
will produce solids, liquids, gases, and electricity as energy
forms, with a different set of transportation modes available for
each form (see Figure 11-16).  In this analysis of energy trans-
portation impacts, particular attention is paid to coal because
(1) there are a wide variety of transportation options in the
coal resource development system,1  (2) a substantial investment
is required (perhaps 75 percent of total western energy trans-
portation investment) to develop the coal transportation system,
and (3) there is substantial controversy surrounding the relative
merits of rail and slurry pipeline systems.

     In this section, the expected increase in the overall mag-
nitude of western energy transportation is assessed, with some
detail on modes and routes.  The characteristics of the modes are
then discussed, both in terms of their resource requirements (such
as water)  and in terms of their impacts (such as noise).

11.6.2  Magnitude of Transportation Activity

A.  Coal

     Figure 11-17 presents projections of the major movements of
western coal used by electric utilities in the year 2000.  It is
based on a scenario of high coal use  (v/estern production for
utilities of 788 million tons per year) and minimal environmental
protection.2  It should be borne in mind that the flows depend
critically on such factors as air pollution policy.  One study
has projected, for example, that a uniformly applied 90 percent
sulfur removal standard could reduce flows from the Northern


      *In addition to the modes shown in Figure 11-16, barges,
trucks, and conveyors play a significant role in the eastern half
of the country and localized areas in the West.

      2Teknekron Inc., "Projections of Utility Coal Movement
Patterns:  1980-2000," in U.S., Congress, Office of Technology
Assessment.  Task Reports;  Slurry Coal Pipelines, Vol. II,
Part  1.  Washington, D.C.:Office of Technology Assessment, 1978.
The 788 million tons per year exported from the West for use by
utilities is equivalent to about 68 percent of all western coal
production projected in the SRI Low Demand case and 50 percent of
production projected in the SRI Nominal Demand case for 2000.

                              1070
-------
RESOURCE
               MINE-SITE CONVERSION
                                             TRANSPORT UNK
                                                                    DEMAND CENTER CONVERSION
   COAL
                      POWER PLANT
                      LIQUEFACTION
                     GASIFICATION
                     SLURRY ING
         "|  ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION!
J	L
                                               LIQUIDS PIPELINE
J	L
                                               GAS PIPELINE
                                               UNIT TRAIN
                                               SLURRV PIPELINE
1 NATURAL GAS

| GEOTHERMAL

n 	
pj WATER HEATING j^^
H
*"| POWER PLANT j^^

"~~| GAS PIPELINE f '








»

"^*H ELECTRIC TRANSMBSIONh " " -1 tLtCIHICIIV |
      FIGURE  11-16:   CONVERSION/TRANSPORT  CONFIGURATIONS
                                        1071
-------
 0
INTRASTATE
           VOLUMES PROPORTIONAL
           TO WIDTH:
           (V'=200 M.t.p.y.)
          FIGURE 11-17:   UTILITY COAL TRANSPORTATION FROM
                          WESTERN SOURCES,  YEAR 2000
                               1072
-------
Great Plains to the Midwest by a factor of four or more.1
Nevertheless, the major movement of western coal will probably
be from the Northern Great Plains eastward and southward.   The
largest single direction of movement will be from Wyoming to
Texas, caused by extensive replacement of gas-fired power plants
with coal-fired power plants.2

     There is considerable uncertainty about the split of coal
transportation between railroad and slurry modes.  It is generally
agreed that slurry pipelines are most economical when transporting
large volumes over long distances, but investigators differ widely
in quantifying these cost parameters.  A rough estimate has been
obtained by assuming that rail is more economical for all movements
under 400 miles or 4 Mlitpy and that pipeline is more economical
for all movements over both 950 miles and 18 million tons.3  These
economic criteria imply that 48 percent of coal produced in the
West would be transported by pipeline.  This is equivalent to 62
percent of the coal which leaves the eight-state study area.
Routes involved would be from Wyoming and Colorado to Texas,
Kansas, Missouri, and Indiana.

B.  Gases, Liquids, and Electricity

     The magnitude of transportation of gases, liquids, and elec-
tricity was traced in the process of implementing the Stanford
Research Institute interfuel competition model.4  The model
divides the U.S. into geographic regions, with resources,  demands,
and costs specified on a regional basis.  On the basis of de-
livered costs, the model determines the quantity of energy which
will be transported by each alternative among the supply and de-
mand centers.  The transportation links in the model extend from


      ^rohm, G.C., C.D. Dux, and J.C. Van Kuiken.  Effect on
Regional Coal Markets of the "Best Available Control Technology"
Policy for Sulfur Emissions, National Coal Utilization Assessment.
Argonne, 111.:  Argonne National Laboratory, 1977.

      2However, the potential use by Texas utilities of Texas
lignite makes this Wyoming to Texas projection quite uncertain.

      Intermediate situations can be allocated on the basis of
some site-specific analysis.  See General Research Corporation
and International Research and Technology.  "A Study of the Com-
petitive and Economic Impact Associated with Coal Slurry Pipeline
Implementation," in U.S., Congress, Office of Technology Assess-
ment.  Task Reports:  Coal Slurry Pipelines, Vol. II, Part 1.
Washington,D.C.:Office"of Technology Assessment, 1978.

      ^Cazalet, Edward, et al.  A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study:  Economics, Final Report, 2 vols.  Menlo Park, Calif.:
Stanford Research Institute, 1976.

                              1073
-------
the energy resource areas to the centroids1 of the energy demand
regions.  No attempt was made to simulate the complex network of
links among numerous cities and towns.  Results are displayed in
Figures 11-18, 11-19, and 11-20.

     Based on the Nominal Demand case, nine gas pipelines, each
with a capacity of 1 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day, will
originate in the Northern Great Plains, while four gas pipelines
will be required in the Four Corners area in the year 2000 to
transport both natural and synthetic gas.   Data filed with the
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) show that two major
interstate gas pipeline companies have lines currently trans-
versing the Four Corners states with a total yearly capacity of
2,341 bcf, exclusive of added compression or looping which would
increase the capacity.   Therefore, except for short gathering
lines to tie in with these existing trunk lines, it is anticipated
that no new pipelines will be required to transport the gas pro-
jected to be produced in the Rocky Mountain region for the Nominal
case.  Existing lines will progressively transport less natural
gas and more synthetic gas.

     Based on the same Federal Power Commission (FPC)  data, one
major gas pipeline with a capacity of 56 bcf per year currently
traverses the Northern Great Plains.   In addition, a leg of the
proposed Alcan gas pipeline will pass through part of the region.2

     The Nominal case will require that 4  bcf,  201 bcf, and 3.43
trillion cubic feet (tcf)  of gas per year  be produced in the
Northern Great Plains in 1985, 1990,  and 2000,  respectively.  In
this case, current lines will be adequate  until the late 1980's,
but new pipelines with a capacity of 3.37  tcf per year will be
required by 2000 to meet the projected flows.

     Liquid fuel flows from the western region will consist of
shale oil, conventionally produced crude oil, and coal syncrude.
Existing trunkline capacity from the Northern Great Plains
has been estimated as 620,000 bbl/day.3  In the Nominal case,
142,000 bbl/day will be produced in the year 2000 in the area.
Therefore, except for tie-in lines, existing crude oil trunkline
     :A centroid of a region is calculated as the point which
minimizes the average distance to all other points in the region.

     2"President Chooses Alcan to Move Prudhoe Gas."  Oil and Gas
Journal, Vol. 75 (September 12, 1977), p.  73.

     3U.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Coal Research.
Prospective Regional Markets of Coal Conversion Plant Products
Projected to 1980 and 1985.  Washington, D.C.:  Government
Printing Office, 1974.

                             1074
-------
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1077
-------
capacity should be capable of transporting the projected produc-
tion of liquid fossil fuels from the Northern Great Plains to
refinery centers.

     In the Nominal case, the Four Corners area will produce 3.91
million bbl/day of liquid fossil fuels in the year 2000.  However,
the Interstate Commerce Commission estimates the available crude
oil trunkline capacity out of the area as only 260,000 bbl/day.1
As a result, almost all the approximately 2,400 miles of 36-inch
pipelines projected to be required must be newly constructed.

     Most of the new electric power plants in the West are assumed
to be located at the mine-mouth.  This will entail new transmission
facilities to tie into existing grid systems because few of the
hypothesized mines are located near metropolitan demand centers.
For the Nominal case in 2000, approximately 13,000 miles of new
lines will be required.

     The choice between alternating current (AC)  and direct current
(DC)  will involve detailed consideration of the advantages and
disadvantages of each system on a case by case basis.  However,
DC transmission at 600 kilovolts(kV)  was assumed in performing
this regional scenario analysis because it has potential for lower
power losses and reduced environmental impact in the high-volume,
long-distance applications considered in this study.  It must be
recognized, however, that technology oE transmitting electricity
via high-voltage direct current (HVDC)  lines is still in its
early development stages as compared to AC transmission, and the
use of HVDC has been fairly limited.   Of the 39,502 circuit miles
of overhead extra-high voltage transmission lines operational in
1974, only 865 miles were DC lines operating at ±400 kV.2

11.6.3  Input Requirements

A.  Economic Costs

     Table 11-59 summarizes information on the costs of energy
transportation on a unit basis and Table 11-60 summarizes costs
for the entire region.

     The front-end costs of unit train systems will consist of
hopper cars, locomotives, new track,  and upgrading of existing
     ^.S., Department of the Interior, Office of Coal Research.
Prospective Regional Markets of Coal Conversion Plant Products
Projected to 1980 and 19851Washington, D.C.:  Government
Printing Office, 1974.

     2"The Electric Century, 1874-1974."  Electrical World, Vol.
181  (June 1, 1974), p. 431.


                              1078
-------
         TABLE  11-59:
SUMMARY ESTIMATES OF THE ECONOMIC
CHARACTERISTICS OF TRANSPORT MODES
MODE
DC Transmission
Unit Trains
Pipelines
Slurry
Gas
Oil
UNIT COST3
$2.78
0.60

0.75
0.56
0.078
FIXED PORTION
OF COST
(percent)
84.6
12.2

79.3
50.9
73.1
ENERGY
CONSUMPTION0
(percent)
11.0
2.5

2.9
9.6
1.1
   DC = direct current

   aExcept for electricity, the costs are 1975 dollars per
   million British thermal units  (Btu) of energy flow over
   routes of 1,000 miles.  In order to make the costs roughly
   comparable, the unit costs of electricity are expressed
   in terms of 1975 dollars per million Btu of electric
   energy, which assuming a 35 percent conversion efficiency
   requires three million Btu heat input at the power plant.

    Percent of annualized cost accounted for by amortization
   of initial investment.  Assumed annual carrying charge of
   22.8 percent.

    Percent of energy input which is lost or consumed over a
   1,000 mile route.
track.  All of these costs will vary depending on the character-
istics of the particular route being considered, such as the
physical condition of the roadbed, signalling systems, and other
traffic.  These factors also play a role in determining the average
speed of the trains and hence how much rolling stock is needed to
deliver coal at a given rate.

     Railroads have been spending less and less on track mainte-
nance over the last two decades.  Results of a study for the
Federal Energy Administration indicated that to restore 71 per-
cent of the national rail lines (rails and ties) to normal
condition will require $4.1 billion.   A total expenditure of
                              1079
-------
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                                      1080
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$12 billion has been estimated for complete restoration.1  It was
not determined whether this restoration process would enable
existing lines to carry the increased tonnage required for coal
unit trains.  Existing rail lines might not be able to accommo-
date the tonnage and speed of projected coal unit train traffic.
Some lines have been constructed specifically for unit trains,2
but for many lines, new ballast, ties, and heavier rails will
probably be required.  Assuming that 33,000 miles of western
track will require upgrading at a cost of $100,000 per mile, total
upgrading cost would come to some $3.3 billion.

     There is considerable disagreement as to how many trains can
be run on a given route.   Various investigators have used figures
in their studies ranging from 253 to 230U MMtpy on a double track
line.  Assuming a saturation point of 70 MMtpy,  6,600 miles of new
lines would be needed for moving western coal,  at a cost of almost
$2.0 billion.5

     In any case, the larger portion of cost in a unit train system
comes in the form of operating costs, as can be seen in Table 11-59,
     ^.S., Federal Energy Administration.  Project Independence
Blueprint, Final Task Force Report, Analysis~of Requirements and
Constraints on the Transport of Energy Materials, Vol.T~.Wash-
ington, B.C.:  Government Printing Office, 1974.

     2Doran, Richard K., Mary K. Duff, and John S. Gilmore.
Socio-Economic Impacts of Proposed Burlington-Northern and Chi-
cago & North Western Rail Line in Campbell-Converse Counties,
WyomingTDenver,Colo.:University of Denver,Research Insti-
tute, 1974.

     3This lower limit makes allowance for other classes of traf-
fic and assumes relatively poor track conditions.  See Rieber,
Michael, and Shao Lee Soo.  "Route Specific Cost Comparisons:
Unit Trains, Coal Slurry Pipelines and Extra High Voltage Trans-
mission," Appendix B in White, Irvin L., et al.  Energy From the
West:  A Progress Report of a Technology Assessment of Western
Energy Resource Development.  Washington"^ D.C. :  U.S., Environ-
mental Protection Agency,1977.

     "Desai, Samir, and James Anderson.  Rail Transportation
Requirements for Coal Movement in 1980.  Cambridge,Mass.:Input
Output Computer Services Inc., 1976, p. 2-32.

     5U.S., Congress, Senate, Committee on Commerce.  To Alleviate
Freight Car Shortage, Senate Report 92-982 on S. 1729, 92d Cong.,
2d sess., 1972.

                              1081
-------
and the largest single item in operating costs is labor.  Approxi-
mately 43 railroad workers will be needed to transport each million
annual tons of coal over a 1,000 mile route.1

     In contrast with railroads, a large portion of the costs of
slurry pipelines are front-ended.  Estimates of front-end costs
for a 25 MMtpy line range from $800 thousand2 to $2 million3 per
mile.  Interest charges and inflation rates are critical in con-
verting these fixed costs into a per-ton equivalent.  If a nominal
cost of capital of 13 percent per annum must be borne at a time
when 7 percent inflation is occurring, t'aen the real cost of
capital is approximately 6 percent.  If, on the other hand, long
term financing commitments are made at 13 percent and inflation
subsequently moderates to 4 percent, then the real rate will have
risen to approximately 9 percent.  Using these two cases as
examples of possible real interest rates, adding 2.5 percent to
each for insurance and property taxes, and assuming a facility
life of 30 years; each million dollars of initial investment
would entail an annualized real" cost of from $89,800 to $116,400.
Combining these rates with the range of construction cost esti-
mates given above, the per ton capital cost (per 1000 miles) could
vary from $2.87 to $9.31.  As noted, operating costs are rela-
tively small in a slurry system.

     The economic characteristics of pov/er transmission will
depend on whether the AC or DC mode is utilized.  DC is more
stable, has smaller energy losses, and--at any power level--
requires smaller lines, less insulation, and less right-of-way.5
Nevertheless, until recently AC has been used almost exclusively
in transmission.  The major obstacle to DC has been the cost of
terminal conversion facilities.  Although these costs are coming
down, the major applications of DC will continue to be primarily
long distance and single source, such as with remote mine-mouth
generating plants.
     ^reudenthal, David, et al.  Coal Development Alternatives.
Cheyenne, Wyo.:   Wyoming Department of Economic Planning and
Development, 1974, Table 2.3.

     2Cazalet, Edward, et al.  A Western Regional Energy Develop-
ment Study:  Economics, Final Report, 2 vols.  Menlo Park, Calif.:
Stanford Research Institute, 1976.

     3Freudenthal, et al.  Coal Development Alternatives, p. 34.

     ''In terms of the currency value prevailing at the time of
the initial investment.

     5Hingorani, Narain.  "The Reemergence of DC in Modern Power
Systems."  EPRI Journal, Vol. 3 (June 1978), pp. 6-13.

                              1082
-------
B.  Physical Input Requirements

     Attention has been paid in a number of studies to the require-
ments for steel, land, and water which may be consumed or changed
in energy transportation.  Summary estimates are presented in
Table 11-61.  Unit trains and slurry pipelines are roughly com-
parable in total steel requirements, though the types of steel
differ.  Each system requires about 380 tons per mile for fixed
structures  (assuming 25 MMtpy capacity).   In addition, railroads
have to provide a fleet of locomotives and hopper cars.  Some 500
unit trains, each consisting of 4 locomotives and 100 coal carry-
ing cars,1 would be needed by the year 2000 in the Nominal case.
Approximately 2 million tons of steel would be needed to manufac-
ture this fleet.  On the other hand, most of the needed track
has already been installed, whereas only one major slurry pipe-
line is currently in operation.  Finally, it should be noted that
the steel requirements for electric transmission lines are con-
siderably less than for either trains or slurry lines.2

     The slurry pipeline water estimates are based on an assump-
tion of 740 acre-feet per million tons of coal, approximately a
50-50 mixture by weight.  By comparison,  the other energy trans-
port systems use almost no water.  However, transmission of
electricity (or other converted energy forms) implies within-region
use of water in the conversion process.  In the case of electrical
generation, about 2600 acre-feet would be needed for each million
tons of coal burned, or more than 3 times as much water as would
go into an equivalent amount of slurry.*

11.6.4  Impacts

A.  Employment

     Construction and permanent employment are directly influenced
by the distribution of costs between construction and operational
categories.  As shown in Table 11-59, unit trains have the lowest
ratio of construction to operating costs of the transportation
systems considered.  Correspondingly, there is less of a con-
struction boom-bust cycle associated with railroads than with the
other systems, especially where roadbeds are already in place.
For each MMtpy of capacity, slurry pipelines employ 383 construc-
tion workers for two years, railroads employ 44 workers for three
     !Buck, P., and N. Savage.  "Determine Unit-Train Require-
ments."  Power, Vol. 118  (Jan. 1974), pp. 90-91.

     2However, on the order of 65,000 tons of aluminum will be
used in electrical transmission.

     3Further details on water use can be found in section 11.3 of
this chapter.
                              1083
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                        1084
-------
years.  In the operational phase, slurries employ 25 permanent
workers, railroads 43.l  Long distance transmission employs
fewer operational workers than either of these, but just as in
the case of water use, electric transmission implies within-
region energy conversion, hence within-region conversion employ-
ment.

B.  Health and Safety

     Each transportation mode produces a different array of health
impacts, some of which are indicated in Table 11-62.  Due to longer
experience with trains, the hazards of this mode have been quanti-
fied more precisely than for the other modes.  It has been calcu-
lated, for example, that a flow of 20 unit trains per day over
typical routes from the West averaging 1100 miles would cause
3.4 deaths and 14 injuries per year at grade crossings.2  It has
also been found that railroads caused 7.4 percent of the wildfire
property losses in Nebraska in 1972-1976,3 a figure which may be
expected to increase with increasing coal traffic.

     "Plugging" of slurry lines presents problems unique to this
transport system.  If a plug (or a break) occurs anywhere along
the line, all of the slurry must be dumped or the coal will
rapidly settle out.  Therefore, a holding pond of 100 acre-feet
capacity must be available at each pumping station.4  The dumped
slurry cannot be reinjected at these intermediate points, hence
must be trucked to the origin or destination or otherwise dis-
posed of on-site.

     Routine disposal of coal fines at the destination presents
similar problems.  Due to incomplete separation of coal and water,
     ^reudenthal,  David, et al.  Coal Development Alternatives.
Cheyenne, Wyo.:   Wyoming Department of Economic Planning and
Development, 1974,  Chapter IV.

     2Science Applications, Inc.  "Environmental Impacts of Coal
Slurry Pipelines and Unit Trains," in U.S., Congress, Office of
Technology Assessment.  Task Reports;  Slurry Coal Pipelines,
Vol. II, Part 2.  Washington, D.C.:Office of Technology Assess-
ment, 1978, p. 73.
     3
      Ibid.,  p. 74.
     ^Rieber, Michael, and Shao Lee Soo.  "Route Specific Cost
Comparisons:  Unit Trains, Coal Slurry Pipelines and Extra High
Voltage Transmission," Appendix B in White, Irvin L., et al.
Energy From the West:  A Progress Report of a Technology Assess-
ment of Western Energy Resource Development.  Washington, D.C.:
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, 1977, pp. 79-80.

                              1085
-------
            TABLE 11-62:  HEALTH AND SAFETY IMPACTS
         MODE
                IMPACTS
   Railroads
   Slurry Pipelines
   High Voltage
     Electric
   Oil and Gas
     Pipelines

   Trucks
Derailments
Traffic collisions
Fires

Line breaks
Forced dumping of slurry if pumps fail
Disposal of coal fines at receiving end

Shock
Microsparking
Behavioral disorders

Explosions
Fires

Collisions
as much as 5.9 percent of the coal may have to be dumped in a
sludge pond.*

     High voltage (greater than 500 kV)  electric transmission may
cause biological effects which are qualitatively different from
those of electricity in more familiar voltage ranges.  Behavioral
disturbances such as loss of appetite and listlessness have been
reported among switchyard workers in isolated cases in the Soviet
Union and Spain.2  However, the extent of such impacts and the
mechanisms involved have not been established.3  Of course, lower
voltages could be used to avoid potential problems, but the
advantages of lower construction costs,  narrower rights-of-way,
and smaller power losses would be lost.
     Calculated from data in Science Applications, Inc.  "Envi-
ronmental Impacts of Coal Slurry Pipelines and Unit Trains," in
U.S., Congress, Office of Technology Assessment.  Task Reports:
Slurry Coal Pipelines, Vol. II, Part 2.  Washington, D.C.:
Office of Technology Assessment, 1978, pp. 44, 50.

     2Kornberg, Harry.  "Concern Overhead."  EPRI Journal, Vol. 2
(June/July 1977), p. 9.,

     3For a review of the literature, see Miller, Morton, and
Gary Kaufman.  "High Voltage Overhead."  Environment, Vol. 20
(January 1978), pp. 6-15, 32-36.
                              1086
-------
C.  Barriers to Mobility

     Since they are configured in long, continuous strips, trans-
portation corridors tend to restrict the mobility of humans and
animals.  Animals will probably be most affected by railroads and
powerlines, inasmuch as these will often be fenced off for safety
reasons.  Pipelines, on the other hand, will usually be placed
underground.  Mobility may be crucial to the survival of some
species, especially where seasonal migration is involved.

     Human mobility will be most disrupted where trains pass
through towns.   Passage time for a 100-car train traveling at 20
miles per hour is approximately 3 minutes.  Under the Nominal case
scenario, 43 round trips per day could be expected between the
Powder River Basin and the industrial Midwest by the year 2000.
To illustrate the possible effects of this level of coal traffic,
suppose half of these unit trains (i.e., 22 per day) used a single
section of track between these two regions.  If this were the
case, each crossing along the track would be blocked on the aver-
age 9 percent of the time.  While it is not possible to accurately
predict how much traffic will increase along any particular route,
these calculations show that significantly increased train traffic
could be very disruptive locally.  One detailed study of Colorado
traced a rail transportation scenario of about 90 million tons/
year passing along the Front Range in 1985, and estimated the
value of traffic delay time at $9.9 million annually in that
state. :

D.  Air Pollution

     The most significant air quality impact anticipated from
energy transportation will arise from the diesel emissions of
unit trains.  Emissions of particulates, HC, and CO from a rail
route handling 65 MMtpy are equivalent to those of the average
rural, federal, or state highway, i.e., on the order of 100
vehicles/hour.   Sulfur oxide and NOX emissions, however, would
resemble more closely the emissions from an urban street. 2  In
terms of concentrations, diesel locomotive emissions are not
likely, by themselves, to cause ambient air quality standards to
be violated.3

     :URS Company.  Coal Train Assessment, Final Report for
Colorado Department of Highways.  Denver, Colo.:  URS, 1976,
Table C-l.

     2Science Applications, Inc.  "Environmental Impacts of Coal
Slurry Pipelines and Unit Trains," in U.S., Congress, Office of
Technology Assessment.  Task Reports:  Slurry Coal Pipelines,
Vol. II, Part 2.  Washington, D.C.:  Office of Technology Assess-
ment, 1978.

     3Ibid., p. 82.

                              1087
-------
     Highly uncertain is the impact of ozone generated by high
voltage transmission lines.  Available studies indicate that con-
centrations generated by corona discharges on present extra-high
voltage (EHV) transmission lines are too low to be deleterious to
the environment. :

E.  Noise

     Residents along railroad rights-of-way will certainly notice
the noise of passing coal trains.  As noted above, many western
towns were built around the tracks; moreover, short, widely
spaced buildings will not block sound transmission effectively.
At low levels, noise constitutes primarily an aesthetic detriment;
at higher levels it can cause health and behavioral problems.

     Noise characteristics of unit trains have been determined by
calculating the noise radiated and its attenuation for each of
the engines and cars, then summing the total for various locations
away from the track.2  The noise as a function of time is shown in
Figure 11-21 for three observer distances from the tracks:  100
feet, 1,000 feet, and 3,000 feet.  The calculations assume that
there are few buildings to block or attenuate sound transmission.

     At 100 feet, the separate contributions of the locomotive
and the coal cars will stand out clearly.  Engine noise will
dominate for about a minute, and the peak value will be more than
100 decibels A-weighted (dBA).   This noise level will require
shouting to communicate with another person at a distance of 1
foot.  (Occupational Safety and Health Administration regulations
limit exposure to 100 dBA noise to no more than two hours per day).

     At 1,000 feet, the noise level will not vary as widely over
time, and the separate contributions of engine and coal car noise
will not be so clearly defined.  The noise level will be above 55
dBA for about 8 minutes.   This is the level specified by the EPA
as the "outdoor activity interference and annoyance" threshold.
At 3,000 feet, the noise level will still be above 55 dBA for
about 6 minutes, but the observed peak level will be reduced to
61 dBA.	'

     JFrydman, M., and C.H. Shih.  "Effects of the Environment on
Oxidants Production in AC Corona."  IEEE Transactions on Power
Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-93  (January/February 1974) ,
pp. 436-43; and Roach, J.F., V.L. Chartier, and F.M. Dietrich.
"Experimental Oxidant Production Rates for EHV Transmission Lines
and Theoretical Estimates of Ozone Concentrations Near Operating
Lines."  IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol.
PAS-93  (March/April 1974), pp. 647-57.

     2Swing, Jack W., and Donald B. Pies.  Assessment of Noise
Environments Around Railroad Operations, Report No. WRC 73-5.
El Segundo, Calif.:  Wyle Laboratories,  1973.

                              1088
-------
ffl



-------
     In order to assess the aggregate effect of a series of noise
disturbances over time, the day-night equivalent sound level (Ldn)
measure has been developed.  This avereiges the noise impacts over
time to form a .long-term equivalent sound level, including an ad-
justment to account for the greater subjective impact of noise at
night compared to daytime.1  Figure 11-22 shows calculated Ldn
values at 100 and 1,000 feet from a railroad track as a function
of the frequency of trains.  If the Ldn value exceeds 65 decibels
in a community, widespread complaints about noise can be expected.
The graph indicates that 50 trains per day would be required to
create such a noise level at a distance of 1,000 feet from the
track, but only a few trains per day would be required to generate
this noise level within a few hundred Eeet of the tract.

     Route-specific analysis of the mainline from Colstrip, Montana
to Chicago indicates that 1,134,000 people live within one mile on
either side of that route.  This gives a rough measure of how many
people might be impacted by train noise.

F.  Aesthetics

     Aside from noise, the major aesthetic impacts of energy trans-
portation will probably be experienced visually.  The visual evi-
dence of human presence in itself may be aesthetically objection-
able, especially in primitive areas.  The long, straight lines
characteristic of transportation corridors can contrast markedly
with natural landscapes.  Among transportation facilities, trans-
mission lines will have the greatest skyline alteration impacts
because of their height and hence the long distances from which
they can be seen.  However, even right-of-way clearings for buried
pipelines may produce an objectionable; skyline alteration.

     Facilities may also be conspicuous without altering the sky-
line.  Color, design, and location relative to natural features
are important variables.2  Facilities designed with these elements
in mind can even yield some aesthetic benefits.
     JSee U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Noise
Abatement and Control.  Information on Levels of Environmental
Noise Requisite to Protect Public Health and Welfare with an Ade-
quate Margin of Safety.  Arlington, Va.:  Environmental Protec-
tion Agency, 1974.

     2For a description of these aspects with regard to a rail-
road line, see U.S., Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land
Management, et al.  Final Environmental Impact Statement for the
Proposed Development of Coal Resources in the Eastern Powder
River Coal Basin of Wyoming.  Cheyenne, Wyo.:  Bureau of Land
Management, 1974, Vol. Ill, pp. 11-104 through 11-105.

                                1090
-------
m

c
h-i
     90  -i
     80  -
     70  -
     40  -
             10
20
30    40   50   60    70

  Number of trains/day
    90
  100
                i
               50
            T
               I
             200
    100    150    200     250

      Million tons coal/year
 I
300
350
    FIGURE 11-22:
 DAY-NIGHT AVERAGE SOUND LEVEL (Ldn) AS
 A FUNCTION OF COAL TRAIN FREQUENCY AND
 COAL TONNAGE
  Source:  Swing, Jack W., and Donald B. Pies. Assessment
  of Noise Environments Around Railroad Operations, Report
  No. WCR 73-5.  El Secundo, Calif.:  Wyle Laboratories, 1973
                            1091
-------
                             GLOSSARY


AD VALOREM TAX—A tax imposed at a fixed percentage of the value of
     a commodity.

ALLUVIAL—Associated with materials (sand, gravel, etc.)  transported
     by and laid down by flowing water.

ALTERNATING CURRENT (AC)—An electric current that reverses its
     direction at regularly recurring intervals.

AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS—According to the Clean Air Act of
     1970, the air quality level which must be met to protect the
     public health (primary)  and welfare (secondary).  Secondary
     standards are more stringent than Primary Ambient Air Quality
     Standards.

AMBIENT STANDARDS—Standards for the conditions in the vicinity of
     a reference point, usually describing the physical environment
     (the ambient temperature is the outdoor temperature, and am-
     bient air refers to the normal air-quality conditions).

AMORTIZATION—The gradual reduction of an obligation, such as a
     mortgage, by periodically paying a part of the principal as
     well as the interest.

AQUIFER—A subsurface zone that yields economically important amounts
     of water to wells; a water-bearing stratum of permeable rock,
     sand, or gravel.

AQUATIC HABITAT—A type of site in, on, or near water where certain
     types of plants and/or animals naturally or normally live and
     grow.

AREA COUNCILS OF GOVERNMENT—Regional voluntary intergovernmental
     organizations.  They serve the function of allowing greater
     cooperation and planning among local governments in solving
     problems that overlap more than one local jurisdiction.   They
     also serve as a means to direct federal aid to cities.

AUGMENTATION—Increasing existing (water) supplies by adding to the
     quantities naturally available.
                                1092
-------
AVOIDANCE AREAS—Areas that are not to be utilized as sites for
     energy conversion facilities unless there are no acceptable
     alternatives.

BACKFILLING—A reclamation technique which returns the spoils to
     mined cuts or pits.   This levels the land in a configuration
     similar to the original form.

BACKGROUND LEVELS--Ambient concentrations of hydrocarbons and par-
     ticulates from natural sources, e.g., blowing dust.

BENEFICIAL USE—A doctrine derived from the appropriation system
     stipulating that water use must be made in accordance with the
     public interest of the best utilization of the water resource.

BERM--A shelf or wall built to contain spills around a fuel storage
     tank or to retain other liquids or semisolid materials as in
     waste stabilization ponds.

BEST AVAILABLE CONTROL TECHNOLOGY (BACT) REQUIREMENT—The part of
     the Clean Air Act which requires that a facility be equipped
     with the most up-to-date antipollution device.  Example—coal-
     fired power plants equipped with scrubbers.

BREEDER REACTOR—A nuclear reactor that produces more fissile mate-
     rial than it consumes.  This reactor is sometimes called the
     fast breeder because high energy (fast) neutrons produce most
     of the fissions in current designs.

BROWSE—Twigs, shoots, and leaves eaten by livestock and other
     grazing animals.

COMMODITIES CLAUSE—Section of the Interstate Commerce Act of 1887
     which prevents railroads from transporting freight which they
     manufacture, mine, produce, own, or have an interest in.  It
     has not been applied to any other transportation mode.

COMMON CARRIER—A transportation company which is licensed to pro-
     vide its services at nondiscriminatory rates to all shippers
     who apply.

CONSTRUCTION/OPERATION EMPLOYMENT RATIO—The difference between the
     number of employees needed for the construction phase of a
     large project and the number needed for operation of the facil-
     ity.  Construction results in large employment increases, while
     employment declines are experienced during actual operation,
     resulting in the boom-bust cycle associated with large con-
     struction projects.   The larger the ratio, the greater the
     employment decline when construction is completed.

CONVERSION FACILITY—Plant used to convert energy raw materials into
     usable energy forms.

                                1093
-------
CORONA DISCHARGE—A discharge of electricity appearing as a bluish-
     purple glow on the surface of and adjacent to a conductor when
     the voltage gradient exceeds a certain critical value; due to
     ionization of the surrounding air by the high voltage.

COST—The value of the best alternative which is foregone when an
     alternative is chosen.

CRITERIA POLLUTANTS—Six pollutants identified prior to passage of
     the Clean Air Act Amendments which now have established Ambient
     Air Quality Standards, i.e., sulfur dioxide, particulate matter,
     carbon monoxide, photochemical oxidants, nonmethane hydrocar-
     bons, and nitrogen oxides.

CRITICAL AREAS—Land in energy development areas in which energy
     and recreational development should be restricted.

DEPLOYMENT—Strategic or wider utilization, in this case of energy
     resources.

DEREGULATION—The act or process of removing restrictions and regu-
     lations.

DESALINATION—Removal of salt, as from water or soil.  Also known
     as desalting.

DIRECT CURRENT (DC)—An electric current flowing in one direction
     only and substantially constant in value.

DIVERTING—Turning the course of water from one direction to another.

DRY COOLING—A method used for dissipating waste heat whereby water
     is circulated in a closed system and cooled by air flow similar
     to a car radiator.

EASEMENT—The right held by one person or body to make use of the
     land of another for limited purposes.

ECOSYSTEM—The interacting members of the biological community and
     physical components that occur in a given area.

EFFECTIVENESS—The degree to which objectives are achieved.

EFFICIENCY—The degree to which a possible course of action mini-
     mizes costs and risks while maximizing beneficial impacts.

EFFLUENT—Any water flowing out of an enclosure or source to a sur-
     face water or groundwater flow network.

ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION—The large-scale production of electric
     power for industrial, residential, and rural use, generally
     in stationary plants designed for the purpose.

                               1094
-------
ELECTROSTATIC PRECIPITATORS—Devices that use an electric field to
     remove solid particles or droplets of liquid from plant exhaust
     stack gases.

EMINENT DOMAIN—The right of a government to take private property
     for public use by virtue of the superior dominion of the sov-
     ereign power over all lands within its jurisdiction.

ENHANCED RECOVERY—The increased recovery from a pool achieved by
     artificial means or by the application of energy extrinsic to
     the pool, 'which artificial means or application includes pres-
     suring, cycling, pressure maintenance or injection to the pool
     of a substance or form of energy but does not include the in-
     jection into a well of a substance or form of energy for the
     sole purpose of (i)  aiding in the lifting of fluids in the
     wells, or (ii)  stimulation of the reservoir at or near the well
     by mechanical, chemical, thermal, or explosive means.

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT (EIS)—The National Environmental
     Policy Act requires that an EIS be filed with any proposed
     federal action that will affect the environment.  The EIS is
     to contain:  a description of the proposed action; the rela-
     tionship of the action to plans for the affected area; the
     probable impact (both favorable and adverse); alternatives to
     the proposed action; unavoidable adverse environmental effects;
     and the relationship between short-term uses and long-term
     productivity.

EQUITY—A risk interest or ownership right in property.

EQUIVALENCY STANDARDS—Proposal to allow farmers and ranchers in
     arid regions to irrigate more land with water from federal
     water projects than those in more humid regions.  Current stan-
     dards restrict irrigation to 160 acres or 320 acres if both
     husband and wife are owners.

EVAPORATIVE HOLDING PONDS—Holding areas into which treated water
     effluents are discharged (rather than into navigable waters),
     where solid wastes accumulate and create potentially signifi-
     cant surface and groundwater quality problems.

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION—Loss of water from the soil both by evaporation
     and by transpiration from the plants growing thereon.

EXCLUSION AREAS—Areas designated by the federal government where
     energy development or conversion facilities cannot be sited.

FEASIBILITY—The degree to which a possible course of action is '
     capable of being accomplished, particularly from a technologi-
     cal standpoint.
                               1095
-------
FLUE GAS DESULFURIZATION (FGD)—Removal of sulfur oxide pollutants
     from stack gas emissions by one of several possible methods.

FORB—An herb other than grass.

FRONT-ENDED COSTS—Costs which are incurred before or at the begin-
     ning of a project.

4-R ACT—Railroad Revitilization and Regulatory Reform Act of 1976,
     Pub. L. 94-201, 90 Stat. 31.

GASIFICATION—The conversion of coal or organic waste to a gaseous
     fuel.

GAUSS—The centimeter-gram-second unit of magnetic induction equal
     to the magnetic flux density that will induce an electromotive
     force of one one-hundred millionth of a volt in each linear
     centimeter of a wire moving laterally with a speed of one
     centimeter per second at right angle to a magnetic flux.

GAUSSIAN DISPERSION MODEL—The most commonly occurring probability
     distributions have the form:

               (I/a /27r)/u  exp (-u2/2)du, u = (x-e)/a
                         — oo
     where e. is the mean and a is the variance.  Also known as
     Gauss' error curve or Gaussian distribution.  A model used to
     measure or predict the normal distribution of air pollution.

GONDOLA CAR—Railroad car for carrying bulk materials such as coal
     and grain, with an open top and sealed bottom, so that emptying
     is usually achieved by rotating the car.

GROUNDWATER—Subsurface water occupying the saturation zone from
     which wells and springs are fed; in a strict sense, this term
     applies only to water below the water table.

"HARD ROCK" MINERALS—Solid minerals, as distinguished from oil and
     gas, especially those solid minerals found in hard rocks.

HIGH VOLTAGE TRANSMISSION LINE (HVTL)—An alternative method of coal
     transportation involving the production of mine-mouth electric
     power with subsequent transmission of large blocks of power on
     a point-to-point basis.

HIGH WET COOLING—A method used for dissipating waste heat whereby
     water is circulated between a condenser where it absorbs heat
     and a tower where the warm water is cooled by evaporation.

HOPPER CAR—Railroad car for carrying bulk materials such as coal
     and grain, with doors on the bottom for emptying.
                               1096
-------
HORIZONTAL DIVESTITURE—Disposal of a portion of a business which
     produces products which are somewhat substitutable for other
     products of the firm, e.g., coal produced by an oil company.

HORIZONTAL INTEGRATION—Ownership by one company of competing energy
     resources—coal,  petroleum, uranium, etc.

HYDROLOGY—A science dealing with the properties, distribution, and
     circulation of water on the surface of the land, in the soil
     and underlying rocks, and in the atmosphere.

IMPLEMENTABILITY—(1)  The ability to carry out or put into practical
     effect; (2) the ability to have uniform standards incorporated
     in legislation and regulations.

IMPOUNDMENT—Collection of water for irrigation, flood control, or
     similar purpose.

IN_ SITU—In the natural or original position; applied to energy re-
     sources when they are processed or converted in the geologic
     strata where they were originally deposited.

INFILTRATION—Permeation of water through the land surface into the
     groundwater system.

INSTREAM FLOW—Water flowing in a stream, typically with reference
     to a water requirement for fish and other biota.

INTERMEDIATE WET COOLING—The use of a mixture of high and mini-
     mum wet cooling technologies in power plants in order to
     conserve water resources.  Also referred to as wet/dry
     cooling.

INTERMODEL COMPETITION--Competition between companies providing
     dissimilar modes  of transportation, e.g., railroads versus
     trucks.

INTERMODEL UMBRELLA RATES—Protective rates allowed to be changed
     by companies providing the same mode of transportation.

INTRAMODEL COMPETITION—Competition between companies which are
     providing the same form of transportation, e.g., rail.

ISSUES—Impacts, problems, or consequences of energy resource devel-
     opment which generate conflict among parties-at-interest.

ISSUE SYSTEM—Conceptual framework which identifies the issue being
     considered, the parties involved, the area in which the dis-
     pute occurs, and  the decisionmaking agencies with jurisdiction.
                               1097
-------
JOINT USE CORRIDOR—A narrow strip of land with restricted bounda-
     ries in which facilities of the same or different system are
     placed adjacent to each other in as close proximity as practi-
     cal and feasible.

LEAD TIME—The time needed for planning, financing, and construction
     of required facilities before they are ready for use.

LEGUME—A dry, dehiscent fruit derived from a single simple pistil;
     common examples are alfalfa, beans, peanuts, and vetch.

LIGNITE—The lowest-rank coal, with low heat content, fixed carbon,
     and high percentages of volatile matter and moisture; early
     stage in the formation of coal.

LINK—A connection between two points, as in a transportation system
     (rail, pipeline)  between a supply center and a demand center.

LIQUEFACTION—The conversion of a solid fuel, such as coal or organ-
     ic waste, into liquid hydrocarbons and related compounds.

LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG)—A clean, flammable liquid existing
     under very cold conditions that is almost pure methane.

METHACOAL—A coal slurry using methyl alcohol instead of water.

METHYL FUEL—An alkyl radical CH3 fuel derived from methane by re-
     moval of one hydrogen atom.

MILLING—A process in the uranium fuel cycle by which ore containing
     only 2 percent uranium oxide is converted into a compound
     called yellowcake which contains 80 to 83 percent uranium oxide.

MINE DEWATERING—Pumping unwanted groundwater from a mine in order
     to achieve adequate mining conditions.

MINE-MOUTH SITING—Location of a facility in the vicinity or area
     of a mine, usually within several miles.

MINIMUM WET COOLING—A method used for dissipating waste heat whereby
     water is circulated in a closed system and cooled by air flow
     similar to a car radiator.  Also known as dry cooling.

MIXING AND DILUTION—The dispersion of pollutants into the atmo-
     sphere resulting in a reduction in the level of concentration.

MOBILE SOURCES—Nonstationary sources of air pollution such as auto-
     mobiles, trucks and buses; as defined by the Clean Air Act
     Amendments of 1977.
                               1098
-------
NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS—Pollution standards esta-
     blished by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 requiring a
     90-percent reduction of automotive hydrocarbon and carbon
     monoxide emissions from 1970 levels by the 1975 model year and
     a 90-percent reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions from 1971
     levels by the 1976 model year.

NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS—Standards set for new industries
     to ensure that ambient standards are met and to limit the
     amount of a given pollutant a stationary source may emit over
     a given time.  "New" in this context applies to facilities
     built since August 17, 1971.

NOMINAL CASE—One of the three levels of energy development used to
     make projections based on the energy model developed for Gulf
     Oil Corporation by Stanford Research Institute.

NONATTAINMENT AREAS—(1) Areas, typically urban with heavy
     automobile-related pollutants, in which "all available mea-
     sures" will not attain ambient air quality standards by 1982.
     States must submit new implementation plans and must reduce
     emissions in the area each year to ensure that the ambient
     standard is attained by 1987; (2) areas where national
     air quality standards have not been met.

NONMETHANE HYDROCARBONS—An organic compound (as acetylene or ben-
     zene)  containing only carbon and hydrogen and often occurring
     in petroleum, natural gas, and coal, other than the colorless,
     odorless, flammable, gaseous hydrocarbon CHi+.

NONPOINT SOURCES OF POLLUTION—Areawide water wastes, essentially
     those which are transported to surface and groundwaters from
     sources other than pipes and ditches.  These include pesticides,
     fertilizers, sediments, natural salts, animal wastes, plant
     residues, and minerals.

OMB A-95 REVIEW PROCESS—Requirement that states provide the oppor-
     tunity for governors and local officials to comment on appli-
     cation for federal funds to undertake a variety of catagorical
     programs, and that agencies of the federal government consider
     the comments of the general public in approving specific appli-
     cations for funds.

OCEAN THERMAL GRADIENTS—Differences in temperature of the ocean
     water at various depths.

OFF-ROAD VEHICLES—Motor vehicles such as motorcycles, snowmobiles,
     and four-wheel drive vehicles that can operate over natural
     terrain without the need for roads.
                               1099
-------
OFFSET PLAN—EPA policy which permits new facilities to be sited
     in nonattainment areas where concentrations of criteria pol-
     lutants exceed air quality standards.

ONE-STOP SITING—Centralized decisionmaking alternative where one
     commission would handle all siting decisions and seek input
     from all concerned parties.

ORGANIZATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES (OPEC)—A group of
     nations controlling over 75 percent of free-world petroleum
     reserves; includes Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Libya, Nigeria,
     Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, and others.

OXIDES OF NITROGEN—A class of air pollutants which includes several
     forms of the compound (NO, N02,  N03 as well as others).  Oxides
     of nitrogen are produced during  combustion and constitute some
     of the reactants involved in the formation of photochemical
     smog.

OXIDES OF SULFUR—A class of air pollutants which includes several
     forms of the compound (S02 and S03).

OZONE--An oxidant formed in atmospheric photochemical reactions.

PARTICULATES—Microscopic solids that emanate from a range of sources
     and are widespread air pollutants.  Those between 1 and 10 mi-
     crons in size are most numerous  in the atmosphere; they stem
     from mechanical processes and include industrial dusts, ash,
     etc.

PARTIES-AT-INTEREST—Individuals, groups,  or organizations (such as
     local residents, Indian tribes,  industry, labor, or various
     levels of government)  whose interests or values are likely to
     be affected by the development of western energy resources.

PEAK GROUND LEVEL CONCENTRATION—The  highest air pollutant density
     measured or predicted that is a  result of human activity on the
     ground, e.g., automobile use.  Always cited with respect to
     an averaging time.

PERCOLATION—Downward movement of water through soils.

PHOTOCHEMICAL OXIDANTS—Any of the chemicals which enter into oxi-
     dation reactions in the presence of light or other radiant
     energy.

PHREATOPHYTE—A deep-rooted plant that obtains its water from the
     water table or the layer of soil just above it.  These plants
     are characteristically nonproductive vegetation, such as salt-
     cedar, growing in stream beds, ditch canals, etc. which con-
     sume large quantities of water.


                               1100
-------
PLANNING CORRIDOR—A broad linear strip of land of variable width
     reserved between two geographic points which has ecological,
     technical, and/or economic advantages over adjacent areas for
     the location of transportation and/or utility systems.

PLUME IMPACTION—The point of contact between stack emissions and
     elevated terrain that results in high pollution concentration
     levels at that point.

POINT SOURCES OF POLLUTION—Those sources of water pollution which
     are discrete conveyances (pipes, channels, etc.) and are con-
     trolled by the effluent standards of the Federal Water Pollu-
     tion Control Act Amendments of 1972.  These include effluents
     from municipal sewage systems, storm water runoff, industrial
     wastes, and animal wastes from commercial feedlots.

POND LINER—The bottom of a pond, typically a specially prepared
     layer of clay, less permeable solids, or manmade materials.

POPULATION/EMPLOYMENT MULTIPLIER—A numerical multiplier applied to
     the number of workers needed to construct or operate a new
     facility that is used to project total population levels or
     increases.

POWER POOLING—The transfer of electricity among utilities in re-
     gional electrical service.

PREVENTION OF SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION  (PSD)—Pollution standards
     that have been set to protect air quality in regions that are
     already cleaner than the Ambient Air Quality Standards.  Areas
     are divided into three categories determining the degree to
     which deterioration in the area will be allowed.

PRIME FARMLANDS—Land defined by the Agriculture Department's Soil
     Conservation Service based on soil quality, growing season,
     and moisture supply needed to produce sustained high crop
     yields using modern farm methods.

PRIMITIVE AREAS—Scenic and wild areas in the national forests that
     were set aside and preserved from timber cutting, mineral
     operations, etc., from 1930-1939 by act of Congress; these
     areas can be added to the National Wilderness Preservation
     System established in 1964.

PROBLEMS AND ISSUES—The two terms are not synonyms.   The term
     "problems" is used when conflict among competing interests and
     values is not involved or is not being emphasized, "issues"
     when it is.
                               1101
-------
PROJECT FINANCING—Lending which is predicated more on the cash-
     generation capacity of a specific project than on the general
     credit-worthiness of the developer.   Usually also involves
     long-term sales contracts and specific obligations with respect
     to completion and operation of the project.

PROJECT INDEPENDENCE—A program initiated in March 1974 designed to
     improve the energy position of the United States and perhaps
     to gain independence from foreign energy sources by 1985.

PUBLIC DOMAIN—Original public lands which have never left federal
     ownership; also, lands in federal ownership which were obtained
     by the government in exchange for public lands or for timber
     on such lands; also, original public domain lands which have
     reverted to federal ownership through operation of the public
     land laws.

RECLAMATION—Restoring mined land to productive use; includes re-
     placement of topsoil, restoration of surface topography, waste
     disposal, and fertilization and revegetation.

REGRADING—The movement of earth over a depression to change the
     shape of the land surface; a finer form of backfilling.

RESERVES—Resources of known location, quantity,  and quality which
     are economically recoverable using currently available tech-
     nologies.

RESOURCES—Mineral or ore estimates that include reserves, identified
     deposits that cannot presently be extracted due to economical
     or technological reasons, and other deposits that have not
     been discovered but whose existence is inferred.

RETORTING—The decomposition within a closed heating facility (re-
     tort) of the solid hydrocarbon kerogen in oil shale to produce
     a variety of gases and a liquid hydrocarbon which can be up-
     graded to produce a synthetic crude oil.

RIGHT-OF-WAY—The legal right for use, occupancy, or access across
     land or water areas for a specified purpose or purposes, such
     as the construction of gas or oil pipelines.  Such use on
     federal land is authorized by permit, lease, easement, or li-
     cense.  On patented lands, it is acquired by easement or pur-
     chase .

ROLLING STOCK—Railroad cars.

RUSSIAN THISTLE—A prickly European herb (Salsola kali tenuifolia)
     that is a serious pest in North America; also called Russian
     tumbleweed.

SALVAGED WATER—Water saved from current use which can be applied
     to another use.
                                1102
-------
SCIENCE COURT—A proposed "court" of scientific experts who will
     identify the significant science and technology questions re-
     lated to public policy decisions, conduct adversary proceedings
     over the issues, and issue a judgment pertaining to the disputed
     technical questions.

SEAM--A bed of coal or other valuable mineral of any thickness.

SEEP--A spot where fluid (as water, oil, or gas)  contained in the
     ground oozes slowly to the surface and often forms a pool.

SEDIMENTATION--The action or process of forming or depositing sedi-
     ment (material deposited by water, wind, or glaciers).

701 PROGRAM—A federal program to provide financial assistance to
     local governments for county-wide land-use programs.

SEVERANCE TAX—A tax on the removal of minerals from the ground,
     usually levied as so many cents per barrel of oil or per thou-
     sand cubic feet of gas.  The tax is sometimes levied as a per-
     centage of the gross value of the minerals removed.

SITE SCREENING—A method which eliminates areas as possible sites
     for energy facilities on the basis of several criteria.  Each
     stage of the process eliminates those locations that are un-
     acceptable for a particular criterion.   When all the unaccept-
     able locations for each criterion are identified, the remaining
     sites are theoretically favorable for all criteria.

SLURRY PIPELINE—A pipeline through which coal (in the form of a
     mixture of water and coal)  is transported.

SNOWPACK—The amount of annual accumulation of snow at higher eleva-
     tions in the western United States, usually expressed in terms
     of average water equivalent.

SOFT MINERALS—Minerals such as oil and gas.

SOIL PERMEABILITY—The ability of an area of land to conduct fluids.

SOLUTIONAL MINING—The extraction of soluble minerals from subsur-
     face strata by injection of fluids and the controlled removal
     of mineral-laden solutions.

SPENT SHALE—The material remaining after the kerogen is removed
     from oil shale by retorting.  Its volume is  greater than that  ?
     of the original oil shale.

SPOIL PROPERTIES—Physical and chemical characteristics of refuse
     resulting from mining and processing operations, e.g.,  coal
     mining operations.


                                1103
-------
STAKEHOLDERS—Individuals who have a vested interest in decisions
     affecting development of western energy resources.

STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (SIP)—Required by the Clean Air Act of
     1970, SIP's outline state procedures for enforcing national
     ambient air standards and for monitoring the performance of
     local programs.

STRIP AND SHIP SITING—Determining the transport corridor through
     which it is possible to ship coal as coal instead of converted
     energy forms.

STRIP MINING—A mining method that entails the complete removal of
     all material from over the resource to be mined in a series of
     rows or strips; also referred to as surface mining.

STRIPPABLE RESERVES—Resources of known location, quantity, and
     quality, which are economically recoverable using currently
     available stripmining techniques.

SUBSIDENCE—The sinking, descending, or lowering of the land surface;
     the surface depression over an underground mine that has been
     created by subsurface caving.

SULFATES—A class of secondary pollutants that includes acid-sulfates
     and neutral metallic sulfates.

SULFUR DIOXIDE (S02) SCRUBBERS—Equipment, used to remove sulfur di-
     oxide pollutants from stack gas emissions, usually by means of
     a liquid sorbent.

SURFACE MINING—Mining method whereby the overlying materials are
     removed to expose the mineral for extraction.

SYNTHETIC FUELS—Artificially produced fuels.

SYNTHETIC NATURAL GAS (SNG)—Gas produced from a fossil fuel such
     as coal, oil shale, or organic material and having a heat con-
     tent of about 1,000 Btu's per cubic foot.

TECHNOLOGICAL FIX--The application of technology to resolve social
     problems rather than seeking resolutions through behavioral
     or attitudinal change.

TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT—An examination (generally based on previously
     completed research rather than initiating new primary research)
     of the second and higher order consequences of technological
     innovation.  TA attempts to balance these consequences against
     first-order benefits by identifying and analyzing alternative
     policies and implementation strategies so that the process of
     coping with scientific invention can occur in conjunction with,
     rather than after such invention.

                               1104
-------
THERMAL DISCHARGE—High temperature point source water pollutants
     that could prove hazardous to indigenous shellfish, fish, and
     wildlife in and on the body of water into which the discharge
     is made.

THROUGHPUT—The volume of feedstock charged to a process equipment
     unit during a specified time; the quantity of ore or other
     material passed through a mill or a section of a mill in a
     given time or at a given rate.

TRACE ELEMENT—A nonessential element found in small quantities
     (usually less than 1.0%) in a mineral.  Also known as accessory
     element; quest element.

"208" PROGRAM—Federal Water Grant Program to make funds available
     to local jurisdictions for waste treatment facilities.

UNIT TRAIN—A system for delivering coal in which a string of cars,
     with distinctive markings and loaded to full visible capacity,
     is operated without service frills or stops along the way for
     cars to be cut in and out.

URANIUM TAILINGS—Uranium refuse material separated as residue in
     the preparation of various products such as ores.

VARIANCE POLICY—The procedure whereby a facility may receive a
     variance from the sul'fur dioxide limits allowed for Class I
     areas whose air quality is cleaner than the Ambient Air Quality
     Standards.

VERTICAL INTEGRATION—Participation by one company in more than one
     level of an energy resource system; such participation may
     range from exploration for a resource through the distribution
     of the resource to consumers.

VOLATILE MATTER—Matter that can easily be vaporized at relatively
     low temperatures or exploded.

WATER INTENSIVE FORAGE CROPS—Crops such as alfalfa which consume
     relatively large quantities of water through evapotranspiration.

WATERSHED—Total land area above a given point on a stream or water-
     way that contributes runoff to that point.

WILDERNESS AREAS—Federal lands placed under the National Wilderness
     Preservation System by the Wilderness Act of 1964.  Subject to
     existing uses and rights, commercial enterprises, permanent
     roads, buildings, motorboats, airplanes, etc., are forbidden
     in any land designated as part of the wilderness system.
                               1105
-------
WINDFALL PROFITS—Profits  which occur because of a one-time,  unex-
     pected event,  e.g., profits in the coal industry occasioned by
     a sudden increase  in  the price of oil.
    \
YELLOWCAKE—The product of the milling process in uranium  fuel cycle,
     It contains  80  to  83  percent uranium oxide  (U308).

ZERO DISCHARGE—A goal  of  the Federal Water Pollution Control Act
     Amendments of  1972 to eliminate all point-source pollution of
     navigable water by 1985.
                                1106

                                        16506 *U.S. GOVEMWENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1979 0-281-147/46
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