INITIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
OF WATER POLLUTION  CONTROL COSTS
UPON THE COAL MINING INDUSTRY

report to

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                      Arthur D Little Inc

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                          PART  I

                    TABLE OF CONTENTS
                                                       Page No,
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
     A.   INTRODUCTION                                    1
     B.   FINDINGS                                        2
                                                           Arthur D Little, Inc

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                           PART II


                       TABLE OF CONTENTS

                                                           Page No,

Preface

     A.   FORMAT                                              i
          I.    Industry Segments                             i
          II.   Price Effects                                 ±
          III.  Financial Profiles                            i
          IV.   Pollution Control Requirements               ii
          V.    Impact Analysis                              ii

     B.   APPROACH                                           iv

I.   INDUSTRY SEGMENTS                                      1-1

     A.   SEGMENTS                                          1-1
     B.   PERSPECTIVE ON WATER POLLUTION                    1-6

II.  PRICE EFFECTS                                         II-1

III. FINANCIAL PROFILES                                   III-l

IV.  POLLUTION CONTROL REQUIREMENTS                        IV-1

     A,   GUIDELINES                                       IV-1
     B.   POLLUTION CONTROL TECHNOLOGY                     iv-2
     C.   LIME NEUTRALIZATION COSTS                        IV-5
     D.   RESERVATIONS                                     IV-14

V.   IMPACT ANALYSIS                                        V-l

     A.   ADL SAMPLE                                        V-l
     B.   FINANCIAL EFFECTS                                 V-8
     C.   PRODUCTION EFFECTS                                V-13
     D.   EMPLOYMENT AND COMMUNITY EFFECTS                  v-14
     E.   BALANCE OF PAYMENTS EFFECTS                       V-19

VI.  LIMITS OF THE ANALYSIS                                VI-1

     A.   GENERAL                                          VI-1
                                                           Arthur D Little, Inc

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                           PART II


                        List of Tables
                                                                          Page  No,
  I - 1   Production of coal by the large producers  for 1954  and  1967.        1-5

  1-2   Percentage distribution of the number of sources  and                1-8
          proportion of acid mine drainage by type of  mine, active
          and inactive.

  1-3   Breakdown of Pennsylvania mines by type of drainage                1-10

III - 1   Measures of financial performance of coal  industry  segments       III-4
          based on 1967 Bureau of Census data

III - 2   Selected financial data for the coal mining  industry              III-8
          based on U. S. Income Tax data

 IV - 1   Mine drainage classification                                      IV-1

 IV - 2   Estimated cost of lime neutralization of acid mine  drainage        IV-10

 IV - 3   Cost data supplied by EPA for coal mining                          IV-11

  V - 1   Geographical, size and drainage profiles of  surveyed  coal  mines     V-2

  V - 2   Estimated water treatment costs for surveyed mines.                V-4

  V - 3   Production, Value of shipments and water treatment  costs for        V-7
          the surveyed mines

  V-4   Capital spending by mine segments                                  V-10

  V - 5   Acid mine drainage sensitivity of Bituminous coal counties of       V-15,
          Appalachia and North Central United States                 V-16, V-17,V-18

  V - 6   Areas and communities with maximum sensitivity to water            V-20
          pollution control costs.

  V-7   Number, Production, and Productivity of Coal Mines  in              V-21
          Bituminous Coal States (1970)
                                                                Arthur D Little, Inc

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                         PART II


                     List of Figures
                                                                         Page No.


 I - 1  Changes in the number of coal mines in three size                  1-3
        categories since 1960

 1-2  Changes in coal production for three sizes of mines since 1960.    1-4

 1-3  Areas affected by the acid mine drainage problem in Appalachia     1-7

IV _ i  Flowsheet for lime neutralization                                 IV-8

IV - 2  Estimated cost of lime neutralization of acid mine drainage       IV-9

IV - 3  Capital costs of lime neutralization of acid mine drainage        IV-12
                                                              Arthur D Little, Inc

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INITIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS OF WATER




  POLLUTION CONTROL COSTS UPON THE COAL




             MINING INDUSTRY
             PART I - SUMMARY
                                                   Arthur D Little, Inc

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 A.    INTRODUCTION
         The  Environmental Protection Agency  (EPA) is interested in assessing
 the  economic impact  on  the  coal  industry  of  proposed legislation affecting
 quality  of effluent  water from coal mining operations.  Because of budget and
 time constraints and the non-availability of necessary data,  the entire coal
 mining industry could not be  examined;  instead, selected operations in several
 industry segments were  studied.


         Four regions account  for virtually all the bituminous  coal production
 of the U.S.  - Appalachia, Central U.S., Northern Great Plains  and the Mountain
 and  Pacific  states.  We believe  the problems associated with water pollution and
 acid mine drainage are most severe in  the Appalachian and Central regions and
 therefore have devoted  our  analysis to  these regions.


         The coal mining effluent limitation guidelines furnished by the EPA
dated July 29, 1972 were assumed as a standard to be achieved for all effluent
waters.  The EPA was to provide all pollution control information including
effluent flow, volumes, pollutant concentration and pollution control costs in
order for us to provide a meaningful impact analysis.  However, it proved ex-
tremely difficult for EPA to obtain such data and we were asked to use data
available from other sources in making our analysis.  The only data generally
available are from the Bureau of Census and deal only with regional and national
totals for the industry rather than individual mines, thus making it less useful
for a microeconomic impact analysis.   We therefore confined our analysis to a
sampling of individual mines that could be made within the time constraints

imposed.
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         For the purposes of this study, we adopted, with slight modification,




water treatment capital costs furnished by the EPA.  We found these to be con-




sistent with the estimates given to us by industry personnel and available in




standard sources such as the 1969 Appalachian Regional Commission report on




Acid Mine Drainage.  Operating costs were similarly obtained from standard




sources coupled  with our best judgment of probable costs in those mines where




standard data were not applicable.









         In addition to estimating the impact on the coal mine sample that was




studied, we studied qualitatively, the remaining segments of the Appalachian




and North-Central coal regions to determine the probable sensitivity of these




mining areas to the water pollution regulations and the possible impacts that




could be incurred.









B.   FINDINGS




         We find that there are major differences between the small and large




coal mine operations.  The small mines are low profit marginal operations and




in the past few years the number of small mines has been decreasing.  This has




been caused by a number of different pressures, but mainly because of their




inability to control price ceilings (which are established by the large pro-




ducers in each region) and therefore to pass on increased costs.  Our analysis




indicates that most of the small mines have little or no profits and are quite




susceptible to closures in response to potential cost increases.







         The large mine operations are in a relatively better position because




of their ability to increase prices to reflect higher costs even though some-
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times Governmental action delays such increases, and interfuel competition




puts additional constraints on the degree of total pass-on on increased




operating costs.  However, with the increasing amount of legislation on the




coal miners from the environmental as well as the coal mine health and safety




programs, costs may increase beyond what can be passed on and the decision




makers of some of the large operations may find it necessary to shut down




because of a number of complex factors.









         We find that it is possible to isolate the regions that will be




severely affected be new water pollution regulations on the basis that these




are the areas already affected by acid mine drainage problems and are areas




where coal mines are a major employer.  Thus the mines in Northern Appalachia,




particularly Pennsylvania and West Virginia, producing less than 50,000 tons




of coal per year represent a segment of the industry that would be particularly




sensitive to the water effluent regulation and would therefore have the high-




est probability of discontinuing operations.  If we assume the worst set of




pollution control costs and this entire segment of the industry shuts down,




this would mean the loss of less than 15% of the coal production from this




region.  We believe this to be a minimal impact from the viewpoint of industry-




wide production and growth.  However, the community impact would be quite




severe and the following counties could be severely affected:  West Virginia -




Boone, Barbour, Logan, Marion, Marshall, McDowell, Monongalia, and Wyoming




Counties, and in Pennsylvania - Greene County.  In addition, Gallatin County,




Illinois; Pike County, Indiana; Floyd, Knott, Letcher, and Pike Counties in




Kentucky; and Buchanan, Dickenson and Wise Counties in Virginia would ex-




perience adverse employment and community impacts.  Coal mines in these
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counties employ about 53,000 persons, out of which about 6,000 persons are




employed in the small mine segment.









         We do not expect possible increases in coal production costs due to




enforcement of mine effluent quality standards to exert any noticeable effect




on the United States balance-of-payment position.









         In general, we find that acid mine drainage control costs at active




mines always reflect seepages from abandoned mines.  Therefore, mine closures,




per se, do not solve the problem of acid mine drainage.  Thus, employment




and community impacts will be severe in certain regions, especially Appalachia.




With the impact of several differing types of legislation and their associated




regulations, the net result on the coal industry is an increase in operating




costs.  Shutdowns will occur, especially amongst the small mine operations.




However, when an industry faces the prospects of increasing operating costs




from several sources, mine shutdowns result from the cumulative effect of




these increased costs.  One cannot predict individual mine closings on the




basis of examination of one of these factors nor is it safe to assume that




the operators' margins (the difference between price and costs) is available




to absorb the impact from any single course of incremental costs.
                                                                   Arthur D Little, Inc

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INITIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS OF WATER POLLUTION




      CONTROL COSTS UPON SELECTED SEGMENTS OF




              THE COAL MINING INDUSTRY
     PART II - INITIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
                                                        Arthur D Little, Inc

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                                PREFACE
 A.   FORMAT




         In compliance with EPA's recommendations, we have organized this




 report in keeping with the following format provided by the EPA.  In so




 doing, we recognize the limitations of this format and have endeavored




 to minimize its possible effects on the thrust of the conclusions.  Where




 necessary, reference is made to the Appendix which is issued as a separate




 volume and provides general background on the coal mining industry.









 I.  Industry Segments




     A.  What different types of plants in the industry might be




         affected differently by pollution control requirements.




     B.  How many of each type of plant are there?









 II. Price Effects




     A.  How are prices determined in the industry?




     B.  What price changes can be expected as a result of




         pollution control requirements?





III. Financial Profiles




     A.  For plants in each sensitive segment, what is the




         1.  Annual profit before taxes




         2.  Annual cash flow




         3.  Market (salvage) value of assets




         4.  Cost structure




             a.  Fixed costs




             b.  Variable costs




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     B.  For each of the above, what is the

         1.  Median

         2.  Range

         3.  Distribution

     C.  What are the constraints on financing additional capital

         assets for plants in each segment?



IV. Pollution Control Requirements

     What assumptions about pollution control technology, investments,
     and costs were used in this study?



 V.  Impact Analysis

     For plants in each segment, what will be the impact of pollution

     control costs in terms of:

     A.  Financial Effects

         1.  Profitability

         2., Capital availability

     B.  Production Effects

         1.  Production curtailments

         2.  Plant shut downs

         3.  Industry growth

     C.  Employment Effects

         1.  From production curtailments

         2.  From plant shut downs

         3.  From changes in industry  growth
                                    ii

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    D.  Community Effects




        1.  Where are plants likely to shut down or reduce employment?




        2.  Are new plants likely to be built in the same areas




            due to the location of the market, raw materials, or




            skilled labor?




        3.  Are laid off employees likely to be absorbed by other




            plants in the same areas?




        4.  Will additional, secondary unemployment result in the




            communities because of multiplier effects?




        5.  How many communities are likely to be seriously impacted?




            Where?




    E.  Balance of Payments Effects





    F.  Effects Upon the Industry's Suppliers and Consumers









VI. Limits of the Analysis




    A.  How accurate can the analysis be considered?




    B.  What is the possible range of error of the estimates?




    C.  What were the critical assumptions?




    D.  What questions remain unanswered?




    E.  Under what circumstances might the major conclusions of




        the analysis be altered?
                                 iii
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B.   APPROACH
        Our efforts were concentrated on Appalachia and North Central
regions, since they currently have an acid mine drainage problem and would
therefore suffer adverse economic effects due to water pollution regulations.
The industry in these areas was analyzed on a "best-efforts" basis, taking
into account regional combinations and within the imposed budgetary and
time cons traints.


        We had expected the EPA to furnish us detailed information on
individual mine effluent quality and quantity and detailed information
on pollution control costs.  Because effluent data were not made available,
we had  to collect data on individual mines as available and our sample of
25 mines is less than 0.5% of the number of mines in the industry.  The

EPA cost data were received late and subsequent to the time when we had
compiled a consistent data base for cost estimation.


        This project was carried out in conjunction with Apt, Bramer, Conrad
and Associates, Inc., of Pittsburgh, Pa.  In addition to compiling effluent
data on mines and calculating the estimated treatment costs, we analyzed
data on mine segments provided by the Bureau of Census and the Internal
Revenue Service.  Our analysis of the mine segments was verified by several
discussions with people knowledgeable about the coal industry.  These dis-
cussions were also helpful in assessing the coal industry's attitudes regarding
the sources of future incremental operating costs and its effects on the
industry.
                                       iv
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                          I.  INDUSTRY SEGMENTS









A.  SEGMENTS









        Four regions account for virtually all the bituminous coal




produced in the United States,—Appalachia, Central U. S., Northern




Great Plains and the Mountain and Pacific states.  It is our opinion




that the problems associated with water pollution and acid mine




drainage are most preponderant in the Appalachian and Central regions,




and on this basis our study excluded consideration of the other re-




gions .









        For purposes of this analysis we have classified coal producers




into three size categories:






•  small mines producing 49,999 tons per year or less including




   "family establishments" producing less than 10,000 tons per year






•  medium-sized mines whose production ranges from 50,000 to 499,999




   tons per year






•  large mines producing 500,000 tons per year and over.








Of the 4,000 active mines falling into the small category in 1970,




3726 were located in the Appalachian region and 227 in the Central




region.  1288 medium-sized mines were operating nationwide, with 1119




located in Appalachia and 141 in the Central region.  The breakdown




for large mines was 187 and 101 for Appalachia and the Central region




respectively.





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        Figures 1-1 and 1-2 show the historical trends in the numbers

and production tonnages, respectively, of these segments of the indus-

try nationwide.  It should be noted that the number  of medium and large

mines  has steadily increased at the expense of small mines which have

experienced a steep numerical decline since 1963.   Figure 1-2, on the

other hand, shows that the tonnage production from the large mines has

increased sharply while small mines have hardly registered any gains.

This is further highlighted by Table 1-1 which shows the coal produc-

tions and percentages generated by the four and eight largest coal

producers in 1954 and 1967.  In this interim, the four largest pro-

ducers boosted their share of total production from 15.8% to 29.2%.

For the top eight producers, the figures are 23.6 and 39.7% respectively.

Thus, while the degree of concentration has increased, the coal indus-

try is not a particularly concentrated industry when compared with the

primary ferrous and non-ferrous industries.



        The trend in Figure 1-1 indicates that the smaller producers

are a marginal segment of the industry.  Most of the small and medium

producers are involved in exploitation of small deposits that are

generally unattractive to the larger producers since the small de-

posits are not amenable to extraction by large scale operation and to

some extent the larger producers are burdened by higher overheads and

usually by union labor costs.  In a given geographical region, the

large producers control the prices and the small producers are gener-

ally unable to exert any significant pressures to control the price

of their product.  Because of this, the smaller producers are tradi-

tionally sensitive to those factors that tend to increase operating

                              1-2
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    7000
    6000
    5000
CD
C
o
k.
CD

"I
D
   4000
   3000
   2000
    1000
                                                            Small
                                                           Medium
                                                           Large
        1960
   1962
1964
1966
                                                        1968
                                                   1970
                                      Year
          Note:
Small: 50,000 Tons Per Year and Under
Medium: 50,000 - 500,000 Tons Per Year
Large: 500,000 Tons Per Year and Over
          Source: Minerals Yearbook, 1960—1970

          FIGURE 1-1  CHANGES IN THE NUMBER OF COAL MINES IN
                      THREE SIZE CATEGORIES SINCE 1960
                                1-3
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   400
   350
   300
   250
o
c
o
   200
   150
   100
    50
                                                         Large
                                                        Medium
                                                        Small
      1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
                                   Year
          Note:   Small: 50,000 Tons Per Year and Under
                 Medium: 50,000 - 500,000 Tons Per Year
                 Large: 500,000 Tons Per Year and Over
          Source:  Minerals Yearbook, 1960—1970

          FIGURE 1-2 CHANGES IN COAL PRODUCTION FOR THREE
                     SIZES OF MINES SINCE 1960
                             1-4
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                              TABLE 1-1

       PRODUCTION OF COAL BY THE LARGE PRODUCERS FOR 1954 AND 1967
                                                Production
                                                (Millions
                                                 of Tons)
                                                            Percent
                                                              of
                                                             Total
                 1954

1.  Pittsburgh Consolidation Group
2.  United States Steel
3.  Sinclair Southern
4.  Eastern Gas & Fuel
5.  Island Creek-Pond Creek
6.  Bethlehem Steel
7.  Truax-Traer
8.  Peabody
                                        Top 4
                                        Top 8
                         Total, all companies
                                              22.9
                                              22.7
                                               8.3
                                               8.1
                                              62.0

                                               8.1
                                               8.1
                                               7.2
                                               7.0
                                              92.4

                                             392.0
                15.8
                23.6

               100.0
                 1967
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

7.
8.
Peabody (Kennecott)
Consolidation (Continental Oil)
Island Creek (Occidental Petroleum)
Pittston
                                        Top 4
United States Steel
United Electric and Freeman
 (General Dynamics)
Bethlehem Mines (Bethlehem Steel)
Eastern Associated (Eastern Gas & Fuel)
                                    Top 8

                     Total, all companies
 59.4
 56.5
 25.9
 19.7
161.5

 19.0

 14.1
 12.6
 12.3
219.5

552.6
                                                             29.2
                                                                 39.7

                                                                100.0
NOTE:  The parent company, if any, is indicated in parentheses,
       The figures have been rounded.
SOURCE:  FTC Report, Docket 8765
                                 1-5
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costs in the short term and their high "mortality rate" is well docu-




mented.  In the long run it can be argued that because of their mode




of operation (i.e., selection of small "easy to mine" deposits) they




would tend to avoid those deposits that are susceptible to water




pollution problems and thus suffer no impact of stringent water pollu-




tion standards.  The latter, however, would involve a loss of mineable




reserves.









B.  PERSPECTIVE ON WATER POLLUTION









        The water pollution resulting from coal mining over the past




century has caused a major impact in certain regions of Appalachia.




Figure 1-3 delineates the areas affected by mine drainage in this re-




gion.   It is estimated that acid mine drainage pollutes 5,700 miles  of




streams in this region, with 75% of the affected streams located in




the Susquehana, Allegheny, Monongahela, Potomac, and Delaware River




Basins of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Maryland.









        Table 1-2 shows the percentage distribution of the number of




sources of acid mine drainage in Northern Appalachia, along with the




proportion of drainage by mine type and operating status.  It is evi-




dent that nearly 80% of acid pollution comes from abandoned or inac-




tive mines and 71% originates in underground mines.  It is expected




that these proportions will probably not change in the near future




unless serious remedial measures are undertaken.









The data of Table 1-2 indicates that stopping operations at a mine








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                                         Applachian Region
                                           Boundary
                                                                                          Area Underlain by
                                                                                          Coal Deposits
                                                                                          Sub-Area Boundary
                                                                                          Areas Affected by
                                                                                          Acid Mine Drainage
                                                                        SUB-AREAS OF APPALACHIA DESCRIBED IN
                                                                                MINE DRAINAGE REPORT
                                                                            1.
                                                                            2.
                                                                            3.
                                                                            4.
                                                                            5.
                                                                            6.
                                                                            7.
                                                                            8.
                                                                            9.
                                                                           10.
                                                                           11.
                                                                           12.
                                                                           13.
                                                                           14.
                                                                           15.
                                                                           16.
                                                                           17.
                                                                           18.
                                                                           19.
Anthracite Region
Tioga River Basin
West Branch Susquehanna River Basin
Juniata River Basin
North Branch Potomac River Basin
Allegheny River Basin
Monongahela River Basin
Beaver River Basin
Muskingum River Basin
Hocking River Basin
Little Kanawha River Basin
Kanawha River Basin
Scioto River Basin
Guyandotte River Basin
Big Sandy River Basin
Ohio River Minor Tributary Basins
Kentucky River Basin
Cumberland River Basin
Tennessee River Basin
                    Source: Appalachian Regional Commission; Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
FIGURE  1-3   AREAS AFFECTED BY THE ACID MINE DRAINAGE PROBLEM IN APPALACHIA
                                                  1-7
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        TABLE 1-2;  PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE NUMBER OF SOURCES AND




                    PROPORTION OF ACID MINE DRAINAGE BY TYPE OF MINE, ACTIVE




                    AND INACTIVE
     TOTALS
                                   TYPE  OF  MINES
Number of Sources
ACTIVE MINES
INACTIVE MINES
Underground
5.0
53.0
Surface
1.4
27.0
Combination
0.4
8.4
Other
Sources
0.5
4.3
Sub-
Totals
7.3
92.7
58.0
28.4
8.8
4.8
100.0
Amount of Acid Drainage







ACTIVE MINES




INACTIVE MINES





     TOTALS
18.8
52.5
0.9
11.1
1.9
7.3
0.4
7.1
22.0
78.0
71.3
12.0
9.2
7.5
100.0
1.  Combination mines include both surface and underground mines on the same site
SOURCE:  APPALACHIA REGIONAL COMMISSION, Report on "Acid Mine Drainage in




         Appalachia"  (1969).
                                         1-8
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does not solve the associated water pollution problems since a high




proportion of the current pollution arises from abandoned mines.  As




a corollary, it can be concluded that enforcement of water quality




standards at presently operating coal mines will solve only a fraction




of the pollution problem and the cost of treating active mine waters




in Appalachia will always be affected by seepage from adjoining aban-




doned mines.  To forestall future pollution when currently active




mines cease operations, we understand that the state of Pennsylvania




has passed a regulation effectively making an operator of a newly




auaudoned mine liable for future acid mine drainage treatment costs




arising from that operator's mine.









        It can be observed from Figure 1-3 that mine drainage prob-




lems are more prevalent in Pennsylvania than in any other state.  In




fact, about 60% of the total Appalachian drainage problem occurs in




Pennsylvania,and Pennsylvania has been a leader in documenting the




quality and quantity of acid mine drainage; its impacts and control




costs as well as the regulation of operations to prevent future acid




drainage.








        Table 1-3 indicates the distribution of drainage sources by




counties in the Pennsylvania bituminous coal belt.  This table illus-




trates several points that have to be kept in mind when studying the




water pollution aspects of the coal industry; viz. although acid mine




drainage can be localized geographically as in Figure 1-3, there is a




wide variability from mine to mine within a county and frequently







                               1-9




                                                                 Arthur DLittleJnc

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  1-10
                                          Arthur D Little, Inc

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adjoining mines can have acid and alkaline discharges or widely varying
volumes of discharge.  In agreement with the general Appalachia drain-
age picture, the table shows that there are more inactive than active
sources.
                                1-11
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Inc

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                           II.  PRICE EFFECTS



        As discussed in detail in the Appendix, the marketing of coal

involves steam coal (washed and unwashed) and metallurgical coal for

domestic and foreign consumers.  Metallurgical coal is a higher value

product and the demand is essentially price inelastic in the short

term.  Two price structures prevail in the steam coal market,—long

term contract price and spot-market price.  The large and some medium-

size producers can obtain long-term contracts for steam coal and this

contract price determines the price in that region.  The spot-market

price is responsive to short-term supply-demand imbalances and these

sales are dominated by small producers who market their coal through

brokers.  In the spot market, the producer is practically unable to

control the price of his product or to pass on any  increases  in operat-

ing costs.   For the large producers,  steam coal marketing to the elec-

trical utilities is a highly sophisticated process involving proper

estimation of mining costs over the life of a property, imaginative

auu persistent attention to securing the lowest possible transportation

co^ts, and the capacity to make sales proposals for large-volume,  long-

term contracts in intensive competition with other coal producers  and

suppliers of alternative fuels.  The long-term contracts contain clauses

that determine the extent of automatic cost pass-on in the event that

operating costs increase.



        The inability of the small and medium-sized operators to influ-

ence the price received for coal makes them susceptible to any impact of
                                 II-l
                                                                  Arthur D Little, Inc

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increased costs.


        We believe that the nature of the long-term sales contract

makes it possible for a large producer to pass on a major portion of

his increased costs including costs of direct compliance with new

government regulations.  There are several reasons why the full cost

of compliance could not be passed on automatically but would require

renegotiation of contracts.  These relate to government regulations

that might prevent a full pass on of costs and more important, to the

fact that many of the steps necessary for compliance result in a loss

of reserves and a decrease in mine life and the loss of future income

cannot be passed on.


        In the case of the smaller producers, we believe that the

added costs can be fully passed on only if

•  the larger mines incur identical higher costs which they are able

   to pass-on in full


•  no government regulations prohibit full pass-on to the consumer.


Partial pass-on would occur if the small and medium-size mines incur

additional costs that are higher than those incurred by the large pro-

ducers.  This, in fact, is expected to be more likely since smaller

units do not characteristically have economies of scale.  Thus the

most probable occurrence would be an increase in price equal the amount

passed on by the large producers.
                                  II-2
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Inc

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                        III.  FINANCIAL PROFILES



        We have utilized the most recent data on the coal industry, as

developed in the 1967 Census of Mineral Industries (and published

December, 1970) for an assessment of the financial profiles of the

different size segments of the coal industry.  Data for the 1972

Census is not expected to be available until late 1974.  We made some

tests based on the 1963 Census data and our own information on the

coal mining industry and feel that the 1967 data can be usefully em-

ployed in this study to indicate parameters useful in microeconomic

analyses, as a function of the size of the coal mining operation.



        The 1967 Census data provides the following financial infor-

mation on ten employee size segments of the industry.


•  Value of shipments (VS) and receipts includes the net selling value

   f.o.b. mine after discounts and receipts for contract work done by

   others.


•  Cost of Supplies, Etc., and Purchased Machinery - This includes:

   a.  the total delivered cost of all supplies used,  minerals re-

       ceived for preparation, and purchased machinery installed;

   b.  the amount paid for electric energy purchased;

   c.  the amount paid for all purchased fuels used for heat, power,

       or the generation of electricity;

   d.  the cost of work done by others on a contract,  fee, or other

       basis for the account of the establishments (contract work);
                              III-l
                                                               Arthur D Little, Inc

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   e.  the cost of products bought and resold without further pro-




       cessing.




   The total excludes the cost of other services used, such as adver-




   tising, insurance, telephone, etc., and research and consulting




   services of other establishments.  It also excludes overhead costs,




   such as depreciation charges, rent, interest, royalties, etc.  It




   includes supplies, machinery, and equipment used in development and




   exploration of mineral properties and in capitalized repairs.









•  Capital Expenditures - This covers expenditures made during the




   year for development and exploration of mineral properties, for new




   construction, and for machinery purchased at their operations that




   were chargeable to fixed-assets accounts of the mining establish-




   ments and were of a type for which depreciation, depletion, or




   Office of Minerals Exploration accounts are ordinarily maintained.






•  Mining Employees   Payrolls - This total includes the gross earn-




   ings paid in the calendar year 1967 to all employees on the pay-




   roll of reported establishments.  It follows the definition of pay-




   rolls used for calculating the Federal withholding tax.  It in-




   cludes all forms of compensation such as salaries, wages, commis-




   sions, dismissal pay, all bonuses, vacation and sick leave pay, and




   compensation in kind.  It should be noted that this definition does




   not include employers' Social Security contributions or other non-




   payroll labor costs such as Employees' pension plans, group insur-




   ance premiums, and workmen's compensation.






•  Value Added in Mining (VA) - This measure is computed by subtract-








                             Ill -2                              Arthur D Little, Inc

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   ing the cost of supplies, etc., and purchased machinery from the


   value of shipments and receipts plus capital expenditures.





        These data can be utilized to derive the following informa-


tion about each size segment as shown in Table III-l.



•  Value Added (VA)/Value of Shipments (VS)


   Since the value of shipments is a measure of tonnage produced by


   each segment, this is equivalent to value added per ton.



•  (VA - payroll (incl. suppl. expenses))/VS


   If local taxes, insurance and interest charges are subtracted from


   this column, we obtain an estimate of pretax cash flow per ton.



•  Capital expenditures (CI)/VS


   This is an estimate of the average rate of capital investment per


   ton of production.



•  Variable out-of-pocket costs (CV)/VS


   The out-of-pocket costs are obtained by first adjusting the capital


   expenditures to remove exploration labor costs which were capital-


   ized.   When this quantity is subtracted from cost of supplies and


   purchased machinery etc; the cost of supplies is obtained.  This


   cost of supplies plus payroll (including supplemental expenses such


   as welfare and social security contributions) gives the out-of-


   pocket variable costs per ton.





        One striking finding is that the sum of reported out of pocket


operating costs per unit value of shipments (or per ton of coal at
                               III-3
                                                               Arthur D Little, Inc

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                                                                                                                               Arthur D Little, Inc

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 constant price)  is virtually  independent of mine size.  A rough cross




 check of this is obtained with estimates derived from the Statistics




 of Income  from corporation  tax returns reported by IRS for the coal




 mining industry  for Income  Years 1966 and 1967 (covering accounting




 periods ending between July 1966-June 1967 and July 1967-June 1968,




 respectively).






 •  Fixed costs, profits and cashflows—Use of IRS data




   Because the set of Census  Data do not indicate profit or cash flow




   from mining, and because of a fair cross check on the unit payroll




   and other operating cost data from the IRS sample, we used the IRS




   data to develop unit estimates of fixed costs, profit, and "cash




   flow" as a function of mine size.









        The income tax data comprise a stratified sample of returns with




 estimates of sampling variability; all returns with corporate assets




 $10 million and above are sampled at 100%.  The IRS data are broken




 down into two groups—"Returns With Net Income" and "Returns With and




Without Net Income," the latter giving the algebraic sum of returns




 showing net income and those  showing deficits, etc.  Some indication of




 the variability of relationships over time can be obtained by examining




 the last several years of statistics.  However, analysis must proceed




with caution because of the sampling variability, differences in cor-




porate classification over  time, differences due to foreign versus do-




mestic earnings mix, and changes in tax laws and regulations over the




 last several years.









        While we have attempted to reconcile IRS and census data to the







                                XI1-5                          Arthur D Little, Inc

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extent practicable, the IRS data  are  given on a different  basis  than
Census (i.e. asset size of reporting corporation rather than average
number of employees per mining establishment), and hence there is only
a rough correspondence between the two sets of data, in addition to
their other limitations.


        For the purposes of this analysis, we have defined fixed
charges per unit value of shipments to be equivalent to the sum of rent
paid on business property, interest, depreciation and amortization, de-
pletion and taxes other than Federal Income Tax, all divided by the
value of business receipts—assumed equivalent to the value of ship-
ments.  To approximate as closely as possible the data in the 1967
Census, we averaged IRS Income Years 1966 and 1967, covering returns
for corporate accounting periods ending July 1966-June 1967 and July
1967-June 1968.  The results shown in Table III-l indicate that fixed
charges tend to increase with the size of coal mining operations.
This may be explained in part by the greater use of long term debt
financing among the large coal companies resulting in higher interest
charges per unit value of shipments.
                               III-6
                                                               Arthur D Little, Inc

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        Table III-2 presents estimates of net income after tax,




cash flow (cash flow is defined here as simply net income after tax




plus depreciation and depletion deductions), assets, value of business




receipts, and cash flow per unit value of shipments as a function of




the asset size ranges of corporations reporting to IRS (covering over




2,300 returns).  We feel that cash flow as obtained from these data is




a more meaningful measure of financial performance than IRS reported




net income, due to the computational effects of statutory depreciation




and depletion allowances.









        Except for the three smallest categories of coal mining




operations, i.e., those with assets under $250,000 and fewer than




20 employees approximately, we find cash flow to be relatively stable




as a percentage of the business receipts (value of shipments).  As




indicated in Table III-2 the range is -1.6% to 14.4% for the industry




as a whole with a median of 10.0%.  Excluding the three smallest groups,




however, the range is 9.6% to 14.4% with a median of 10.9%.
                                       "7                           Arthur D Little, Inc

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              TABLE III-2:  SELECTED FINANCIAL DATA FOR THE COAL MINING INDUSTRY
BASED ON UNITED STATES INCOME TAX DATA

Corporation
Asset Class
($000)

0-50
50-100
100-250
250-500
500-1,000
1,000-5,000
5,000-10,000
10,000-25,000
25,000-50,000
50,000-100,000
100,000-250,000
250,000 or more

Total
Assets


16.5
27.3
58.1
58.6
131.0
302.0
123.9
325.2
374.1
145.4
360.9
761.8



Reported
Business Net Income "Cash Flow" r
Receipts After Taxes from
(VS) (NI) (NI + De + Dp) L


86.5
72.2
143.7
109.1
185.0
403.8
268.4
270.1
258.9
109.8
349.2
762.1
-Millions of
-4.3
-2.4
-1.6
2.4
4.2
4.5
9.0
-0.7
7.7
5.7
-2.3
16.3


-1.6
0.6
6.4
10.3
22.0
39.1
39.9
32.1
36.1
15.7
28.6
76.5
"Cash Flow"
per Dollar
of Bus .
Receipts
NI + De + Dpi
VS J
%
-1.6
0.9
1.4
9.9
11.9
9.6
10.9
11.9
14.0
14.4
8.7
10.1
Notes:  Data from United States Internal Revenue Service, Source Book of
        Statistics of Income, Minor Industry 1100 - Coal Mining, Average
        of Periods July 1966-June 1967 and July 1967-June 1968, by Arthur
        D. Little, Inc.

        NI - Net income after taxes
        De - Depletion
        Dp - Depreciation
        VS - Business receipts, assumed equivalent to value of shipments
                                           III-8
                                                                           Arthur D Little, Inc

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•  Salvage Value of Coal Mining Assets




   There is little information available yet which could be directly




   and meaningfully applied to the question of salvage values of coal




   mines in the context of shutdown merely to avoid incremental pol-




   lution abatement investment and operating costs.  As a first ap-




   proximation one may assume that mobile equipment is salvageable.




   In a new underground mine cost of mobile equipment would amount to




   40-50% of the total capital investment.  The share is higher for




   strip mines.  However, further investigation is necessary to devel-




   op and test a methodology for meaningfully estimating salvage val-




   ues of this equipment since the actual prices obtainable are sen-




   sitive to location and local economic climate.









        Some perspective on the maximum possible salvage value of plant




and equipment per ton of production capacity may be obtained from the




1967 census of mineral industries.  It indicates gross book value of




machinery and equipment employed by the industry of $2.2 billion, cov-




ering 3921 establishments producing 545 million tons of coal.  Pur-




chased machinery installed in 1967 was valued at $259 million; for




1963, when production was 459 million tons, the value of purchased




machinery installed was $191 million (not adjusted for inflation to




1967 dollars).









        The salvage value of a mine or plant may be approximated by
                            III-9




                                                               Arthur D Little, Inc

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the sum of the value of net (depreciated) plant and equipment plus the




net working capital associated with the operations.  Actually, adjustment




from "book values" will probably have to be made, not only as a result of




differences in accounting treatment and rates of depreciation assumed from




one firm to the next, but also to reflect current market conditions.




Using IRS data, indications are that small coal mining companies typically show




negative or very small positive year-end net working capital positions. Although




varying widely, the large coal mine operations show net working capital




positions  on the order of 35% of their net plant and equipment.









        Of course, shut-down of a plant or mine does not imply that an




entire corporation goes into liquidation, and the IRS data are not necessarily




amenable to meaningful proration or allocation to a specific mine or plant.










•  Constraints on Financing Additional Capital Assets




   The constraints on financing additional capital assets fall into




   several different categories:  managerial, financial, competitive, and




   regulatory.








a.   Managerial




        It is management's task to choose from among investment alternatives




and decide on the optimum utilization of the corporation's resources and




borrowing power and to formulate and implement plans accordingly.  Most large




coal companies seek long term contracts with utilities  (and vice versa) and




these activities typically require a commitment of capital for development




of a new mining property.







                                 111-10




                                                                  Arthur D Little, Inc

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        The funds available to the corporation include, of course, its
total cash generation plus its borrowing power.


        Large amounts of both long-term and short-term external capital
funds have been made available to the large coal companies, and long term
contracts to supply an electric utility facilitate financing of new invest-
ments.  The realistic constraints here are the costs of capital vis-a-vis
the expected rates of return on its investment.  IRS data indicated all but
the smallest mines carry significant long term as opposed to short term
debt.  The small mines typically sell in the "spot" market and carry a
large trade credit.


        Mining ventures are typically expected to have relatively high rates
of return and frequently involve some relatively high risks.  Uncertainty
over future pollution control requirements is a factor increasing perceived
risk and probably also the cost of capital.


b.   Financial
        A corporation's earnings and cash flow are generally programmed to
meet dividend, reinvestment, and debt service requirements.  When external
financing is required, there are many considerations dictating the type and
amount.


        In general, financial institutions and investment firms employ
tests of financial performance and standards or guidelines for debt-to-equity
ratios and coverage of fixed charges in a given industry to assess the
                                III-ll
                                                                  Arthur D Little, Inc

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"creditworthiness" of a corporate issuer of securities.  The capital


markets together with corporate management, determine how much capital


will be made available, and under what terms, to the borrowing corporation.


Existing commitments carry with them an obligation to make certain


expenditures, meet debt service schedules, etc.  Loan agreements may


restrict the extent to which the corporation can diminish working capital,


retained earnings, or issue further debt.




c_.	Competitive


        A process breakthrough which significantly lowers production cost


may dictate that capital investments be made — by the innovative firm, on


the offensive, and defensively by its competitors.  On the other hand, if


pollution control costs are so onerous and if competitive market conditions


do not permit such incremental costs to be passed on to customers or tax-


payers, a firm may elect not to spend the money, assuming it could achieve


a greater return on its investment elsewhere.




d.  Regulatory


        The financing of certain additional capital assets may be influenced


by regulatory considerations.  Tax laws and ownership  limitations are  the


most important considerations, e.g., in regard to the  effect of depletion


allowances, or industrial pollution control revenue bond financing.
                                  111-12
                                                                   Arthur D Little, Inc

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                       IV.  POLLUTION CONTROL REQUIREMENTS
A.  GUIDELINES









        We were required to consider the guidelines presented in Appendix B




for water pollution control standards that have to be achieved by each




coal mine.  We understand that each coal permit application for water dis-




charge will be evaluated on the basis of these guidelines.
                                IV'1                               Arthur D Little inc

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B.  POLLUTION CONTROL TECHNOLOGY









        The use of alkalis to neutralize acidic salts and acids from




acid mine drainage (AMD), is the most widely used treatment of such




discharges in use today.  The principle involves the use of alkaline




chemicals, mainly hydrated lime and limestone, and is generally com-




bined with an aeration or oxidation process since mine drainages are




often characterized by the presence of ferrous ion.









        The objective of neutralization of AMD is to remove acidity




and iron from the discharged water.  Iron removal is a necessary




consequence, since ferric ions are only slightly soluble at pH val-




ues over 3.0, and the solubility decreases as the pH increases.




When ferrous sulfate solutions are oxidized at pH values over




3.0, ferric oxides or hydrated oxides are formed, together with an




equivalent amount of sulfuric acid.  This acid potential must also




be neutralized by the alkali used.









        Water drainage from coal mines may contain varying amounts of




acidity  in the form of sulfuric acid  and iron salts, principally




ferrous sulfate.  Other materials may be present, usually in lesser




amounts, principally calcium, magnesium and aluminum salts.  The qual-




ity of mine drainage depends on many factors and is truly the result of




a dynamic series of chemical and physical factors.  These factors have




been well defined, in terms of the present state of knowledge.  The




quality and classification of mine drainage waters are summarized in




Table IV-1.
                               jv _ 2                              Arthur D Little, Inc

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        Those classifications in which the pH is generally below 7.0,




where measurable acidity and iron compounds are present can be treated




by neutralization with alkalis, such as hydrated lime, limestone,




caustic, soda ash, and the like.  Such treatment results in the removal




of acidity and the reduction of soluble iron concentration.  The




efficiency of removal of these materials depends on the alkali used.









        The use of calcium alkalis, lime, hydrated lime and limestone




will remove sulfate ions when present above the saturation solubility of




calcium sulfate, and if accompanied by aeration or other form of oxidation,




will also remove soluble iron salts as insoluble iron oxides.  Thus, effluent




solutions from such neutralization processes generally have no acidity or




slight alkalinity, contain low concentrations of soluble iron and reduced




sulfate concentrations if the original sulfate exceeded about 2000 ppm as




calcium sulfate.  Soluble aluminum salts are also removed from solution.









        Neutralization treatments historically have been applied to mine




drainage classes 1 and 2, since classes 3 and 4 generally have no acidity




and lower iron concentrations.  Unslaked lime  and hydrated lime are the most




common.  More recently limestone has been more widely used, primarily because




of its low cost.









        The effluent solutions, after treatment with calcium alkalis,




contain higher than original hardness concentration, may contain up




to about 2000 ppm sulfate, and may contain significant amounts of
                                    IV-4
                                                                   Arthur D Little, Inc

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    suspended solids depending on solids separation techniques.   To the

    extent that acidity and iron compounds are removed, neutralization

    with calcium-based alkalis is successful.




            While lowest cost alkalis have been most widely used, it is


    obvious that this may not be the determining or limiting factor.  In

    fact, while some alkalis would not produce a desired effluent for

    addition to other surface waters because of high solids content, there


    may be other considerations for investigation .




            The use of sodium based alkalis such as soda ash or  caustic

    will effect a removal of acidity and iron.  These alkalis are substan-

    tially more expensive to use however, but there is one other major


    technical difference.  Since sodium sulfate is a highly soluble salt,

    there is no reduction in sulfate content.  The insoluble materials

    would be iron and aluminum oxides, and the quantity of insolubles


    separated would be less, since no sulfates would be removed.  Sludge

    disposal is a serious consideration, since it represents a pollu-

    tional waste.  Disposal methods now in use include lagooning and dis-

    posal in abandoned dry mines.  Accurate sludge handling and  disposal

    costs have not been detailed well in the literature, although Corsaro

    et al,*     provide information and also point out the many  factors

    which must be considered.




    C.  LIME NEUTRALIZATION COSTS




            Neutralization and oxidation, via the use of lime or lime-

* Second Symposium on AMD, BCR ine  (1968)

                                                                    Arthur D Little, Inc
                                   IV-5

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stone with aeration, while not widely practiced on acid mine drainage




taken as a whole, nevertheless are by far the most widely used of all




mine drainage treatment methods.









Engineering Cost Factors









        1.  Plant treatment capacity:  Lime neutralization costs are




less dependent on the volume of water treated than on the acidity and




iron content of the water, although lower volumes of water treated




tend to increase both the operating and capital costs per unit volume




of water.






        2.  Lime Consumption:  Hydrated lime is normally used.  Al-




though it reacts quickly and completely, it suffers the disadvantage




of producing a poorly settleable sludge.  The theoretical lime re-




quirements can be easily determined by assuming a stoichiometric




balance between the contained acidity and the lime addition.  In




practice, this quantity is escalated by about 25% to compensate for




reaction kinetic effects and to ensure iron precipitation.  A good




rule of thumb is to add one pound of hydrated lime per 100 ppm acid




per 1,000 gallons of drainage.






        3.  Mixing and Aeration:  These are important operations in




the use of lime, since the chemical reactions involve the formation




of slightly soluble gypsum and the oxidation of ferrous iron.  It is




most important that suitable mixing and agitating/aeration facilities




be provided or else incomplete reactions would give an unstable sludge




 in effluent water.  Oxidation of ferrous ions accelerates as the pH








                                IV'6                            ArthurDLittle,Inc

-------
 is  raised.






         4.   Settling  and/or Thickening:  These are to be weighed as




 importantly  as mixing and  aeration, since the sludges formed are




 typically  slow in  settling from solution.  In this respect lime treat-




 ment  is  at a disadvantage  in  comparison with limestone treatment,




 which produces a lower volume, more rapidly settleable sludge.  The




 sludge volume typically produced from a lime treatment plant is a high




 percentage of influent volume and contains from 1 to 10% solids on




 the average.  This volume  of  solids increases with time.  Convention-




 ally, the  treated water and sludge are sent to a settling lagoon or




 impoundment  basin  from where  the supernatant may be removed by pump-




 ing.






         5.   Sludge Disposal:  The cost of sludge disposal varies as a




 function of  the drainage acidity and flow rate, as well as the disposal




 method.  The above factors have been taken into consideration in the




 flowsheet of Figure IV-1 which represents a currently practical process




 for lime neutralization of acid mine drainage.  The estimated treatment




 costs have been plotted in Figure IV-2 as a function of the mine drain-




 age rate and  acidity.  A breakdown is given in Table IV-2 of the sev-




 eral  cost elements.   Capital  cost estimates in each case were based on




 information  furnished by the  EPA.  The EPA information is summarized in




Table IV-3. We consider the EPA estimates realistic and they appear to be con-




 sistent  with  the estimates given to us by industry personnel and avail-




 able  in  standard sources such as the 1969 Appalachia Regional Commis-




 sion  Report  on Acid Mine Drainage.  Capital costs are plotted in Fig-




 ure IV-3 as  a function of  drainage acidity and flow rate.  Care must









                              iv-7                              Arthur D Little, Inc

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           Raw Drainage
   \
1
           Holding Lagoon
Sludge for Disposal
                                                     Lime
                                        Mixer
                                           Neutralization Tank
                                                             Aeration
                                                               Tank
                                                                          Air
                                                                             Coagulant Aid
                                                                   Settling
                                                                    Basin
                                                                                        Treated Effluent
     FIGURE IV-1  FLOWSHEET FOR LIME NEUTRALIZATION OF ACID MINE DRAINAGE
                                          IV-8
                                                                     Arthur D Little, Inc

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4.0
2.0
 .10
   0.10
            ,Strong Solution  pH-1.0 to 3.0
            Average Solution  pH-3.0 to 5.0
            Weak Solution pH > 5.0
           I     I
J   	L	I   I   ill
                      1.0
          Mine Drainage Flow Rate, MGD
                                                                                   10.0
        FIGURE IV-2 ESTIMATED COST OF LIME NEUTRALIZATION OF ACID MINE DRAINAGE
                                        IV-9
                                                                           Arthur DLittleJnc

-------



































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IV-10
Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
                             TABLE IV-3:  COST DATA SUPPLIED BY  EPA  FOR COAL MINING



A.  BASIS

    1.  Plant capacities:  0.1 - 1.0 - 7.0 million gallons/day

    2.  Definition of treatment technologies

        a.  sedimentation

        b.  neutralization and sedimentation

        c.  two stage neutralization and sedimentation

        d.  same as "c" with addition of coagulant aids  and  aeration

        e.  same as "d" with addition of deep bed or mixed media filtration
    COSTS

    1.  Plant size of 0.1 million gal/day

        Treatment Technology

        a.  Medium Solution (pH 3.0-5.0)

            Investment
            Opr & Maint (c/1000 gal)

        b.  Strong Solution (pH 1.0-3,0)

            Investment
            Opr & Maint

        c.  Weak Solution (pH 5.0-7.0)

            Investment
            Opr & Maint
$ 38,000
  19c
$ 65,000
 68c
 Use 154% of cost shown above
 Use 144% of cost shown above
 Use 75% of cost shown above
 Use 58% of cost shown above
                                  C*
$  104,000
 1.36C
$  138,000
 1.92C
$  172,000
 2.10C
    2.   Plant size of 1.0 million gallons/day

        a.   Medium Solution (pH 3.0-5.0)
            Investment
            Opr & Maint (c/1000 gal)

        b.   Strong Solution (pH 1.0-3.0)

            Investment
            Opr & Maint

        c.   Weak Solution (pH 5.0-7.0)

            Investment
            Opr & Maint
 125,000
 3.3c
 210,000
 46c
 Use 162% of cost shown above
 Use 171% of cost shown above
 Use 46% of cost shown above
 Use 30% of cost shown above
   340,000
 92C
   460,000
 1.34C
   730,000
 1.40c
    3.  Plant size of 7.0 million gallons/day

        a.   Medium Solution (pH 3.0-5.0)
            Investment
            Opr 6, Maint (c/1000 gal)

        b.   Strong Solution ( pH 1.0-3.0)

            Investment
            Opr & Maint

        c.   Weak Solution (pH 5.0-9.0)

            Investment
            Opr & Maint
 540,000
 1.5C
 880,000
 43C
 Use 191% of cost shown above
 Use 179% of cost shown above
 Use 35% of cost shown above
 Use 22% of cost shown above
 1,400,000
 86C
 2,000,000
 1.20C
 2,600,000
 1.23C
* Note - For this analysis it can be assumed that level "C"  will satisfy  RAPP  guidelines.
                                                       IV-11
                                                                                                    Arthur D Little, Inc

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    10   p
    1.0  I
CD
 o
    0.1
   0.01
       0.01
0.1                        1.0


     Drainage Flow Rate, MGD
                                                                                      10
                       FIGURE IV-3  CAPITAL COST OF LIME NEUTR. OF AMD
                                           IV-12
                                                                              Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
be exercised in extrapolating these curves to very low drainage flow

rates since we believe that capital costs become less sensitive to flow

rates at flow rates less than about 10,000 gallons per day.  In fact,

we estimate that a small treatment system (containing only the neces-

sary components such as lime feeders and pumps) for a low capacity

operation would cost a minimum of $20,000 to $40,000.  This amount of

capital investment (for non-income producing equipment) would have a

significant impact on the smallest mine.  The capital cost per 1000

gallons of drainage treated was calculated on the assumption that the

investment is amortized over a ten-year period.  Obviously, this

would not apply in the case of a mine with 5 years of remaining life—

a situation applicable to many smaller producers.  Other elements of

cost represent our best judgement of unit costs for each item, and are

generally consistent with the operating cost data utilized in the 1969

Appalachian Regional Commission report of the economics of mine drain-

age control.  We have also included the cost of waste sludge disposal

which we consider essential for optimum and economic facility opera-

tion.



        As shown in Figure IV-2 and Table IV-2, the total treatment

cost for the assumed ranges of flow rate and acidity ranges from a low

of 12 cents to a high of $1.39 per 1000 gallons of effluent treated.

It is noted that at low flow rates, capital and lime costs are the

largest contributors to the overall treatment cost, whereas at high

flows, lime costs alone tend to dominate, especially at high drainage

acidities.
                                 IV- 13
                                                               Arthur D Little, Inc

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D.  RESERVATIONS




        We have the following reservations regarding the applicability

of the cost data presented earlier to specific situations in the coal

mining industry.



•  The applicability of the capital cost estimates to small scale

   operations.  This problem was discussed in section C.


•  It appears that the sampling schedule proposed by EPA in Appendix B

   is rigorous and would impose a considerable cost penalty on the small

   mines.


•  Since lime sludge settles to a low solids density, sludge ponds will fill

   up rapidly and the sludge has to be removed and disposed.  Depending

   on location and terrain, lagoon and sludge disposal costs can vary

   widely.


•  The limitation of 30 mg/1 on suspended solids can have a potentially

   great impact.  This is because in many cases, the waters received

   can contain greater concentrations of suspended solids than this and

   non-availability of land in many areas would require the use of more

   expensive  techniques such as flocculation and/or filtration.
                                  IV-14
                                                               Arthur D Little, Inc

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                          V.  IMPACT ANALYSIS









A.   ADL SAMPLE




        For the purpose of analyzing the potential impact of water pollution




control on the coal mining industry, we had expected the EPA to furnish




us data relating to the water consumption, treatment, and discharge




characteristics of a representative cross-section of coal mines in the




United States.  Since the EPA was unable to supply such data, we have relied




on our sampling of those mines in the Appalachian and Central regions who




were willing to disclose their coal production and water-treatment data.




Our sample has been limited to Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West




Virginia because this sector accounts for 57% of the annual bituminous




coal production, and most of the acid mine drainage problems in the coal




industry occur in this region.









        The production and  mine drainage profiles of the mines covered in




our survey are listed in Table V-l.  It should be emphasized that due to




time and other constraints, our sample is necessarily neither significant




in relation to the total number of mines in the United States (over 5000)




nor representative of each sector.  For instance, although it is our belief




that the small mines with less than about 50,000 tons per year production




are liable to be most adversely impacted by water pollution regulations, they




are not adequately represented in Table V-l.
                                V-l
                                                                   Arthur D Little, Inc

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TABLE V-l:  GEOGRAPHICAL, SIZE. AMD DRAINAGE PROFILES OF SURVEYED COAL MINES
Mine Code Location Coal Type
No.
01 W. Virginia Steam
03 Pennsylvania "
04 " Met.
05 W. Virginia Steam
06 " "
07 Pennsylvania "
08 W. Virginia "
09 Pennsylvania Met.
10 " Steam
11 " Met.
12 " "
13 W. Virginia Steam
14 Pennsylvania "
15 " Met.
16 " Steam
17
18 " "
19
STRIP
20 Pennsylvania Steam
21 W. Virginia "
22 Ohio
23 Illinois
24 " "
* Not Available
Kev: Plant Size - S = Small Capacity - Less than 50,000
Plant Drainage Profile
Size Flow rate pH Acidity Iron
M S M L M
M M M L L
L L L L M
L M H H H
L S L L N.A.*
M L M M N.A.
L M M M N.A.
L M H H H
L L H H H
L S L L I,
L M M M "
L L L H M
S M H M M
L L H H
L M L L I,
L L L L L
L M L L L
L L L L L
M M H M M
S S L L L
L M H M M
L L L N.A. N.A.
L ' L L N.A. N.A.
tons/yr
M = Medium Capacity - 50,000 - 500,000 tons/yr
L = Large Capacity - Over 500,000 tons/yr
Flow Rate - L = I ow Flow - Less than 150,000 gals.
/day
M = Medium Flow - 150,000 - 750,000 gals. /day
H = High Flow - Over 750,000 gals. /day
£H - L = Low 5.0 - 7.0
M = Average 3.0 - 5.0
H = Severe <3.0
Acidity - L = Low Acidity 0 - 100 ppm
M = Average Acidity 100 - 999 ppm
H = High Acidity 71000 ppm
Iron - L = Low<-25 ppm
  M =  Average  25-250 ppm
  H =  High "7250 ppm
                                   V-2
                                                                            Arthur D Little, In

-------
        For the following reasons, our sampling has been limited to mines




and includes no washeries:




o  we are informed by reliable industry sources that about 80% of coal




   washeries recycle their process water, and thus washeries do not pose




   significant water pollution problems.  Any problems arising from




   washeries are usually related to acid water seepage from gob piles, a




   problem which is peculiar to those areas where acid mine drainage is




   a problem.









        We have not used the water discharge data in the 1967 Census of




Mineral Industries - "Water Use in Mining" because:




•  these data do not include establishments consuming less than 20 million




   gallons per year.  We believe a substantial fraction of small coal mines falls




    within    this category and thus their water discharge data are not




   included in the Census figures.




•  it is difficult to relate the Census data to individual mines.  It is




   only on this basis that reliable conclusions can be drawn in a micro-




   economic study concerning the possible impact of water pollution control on




   specific mines or mine segments.








        Shown in Table V-2 are additional data regarding the ownership and




water treatment practices (where available) of the surveyed mines, as well




as our estimates of costs where treatment facilities are currently in




operation, or estimates of potential costs where no facilities have been




installed.  Accordingly, treatment costs for mines 11, 20, 21, 22, 23, and




24 represent our judgment of the requisite treatment system and the incurred




costs of water treatment.








                                    v'3                           Arthur D Little, Inc

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                                                                                   Arthur D Little, Inc

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        Capital cost estimates were derived partly from Figure  IV-3

representing the costs furnished by the EPA.  We adopted these figures

since we have determined them to be quite consistent with actual capital

costs incurred by industry sources willing to disclose their capital cost

data to us.  In several cases, however, we have modified the EPA data to

reflect the peculiarities of a specific treatment system.  For instance,

the EPA figures reflected in Figure  IV-3 apply to a system incorporating

mine neutralization, aeration, and sedimentation.  Where necessary, these

have been adjusted to account for the fact that some operations can ful-

fill the EPA's effluent limitation guidelines by simple lagooning or by

aeration and lagooning only.


        The operating costs have been adapted from the cost estimates

given by Holland,  Corsaro,  and Ladish at the Second Symposium on Coal

Mine Drainage Research in Pittsburgh, 1968.   These are shown in Table IV-2.

Their figures are generally accepted to be realistic and were largely

adopted in the analysis of "Engineering Economic Study of Mine Drainage

Control Techniques" by Cyrus William Rice and Company for the Appalachian

Regional Commission.  Where necessary, these costs have been modified by

us to reflect the conditions within particular treatment facilities.  It

should be noted that our estimates include the cost of sludge disposal

where necessary.  We believe that it would be impractical to use a

sedimentation basin for sludge storage since this practice would call for

construction of a new basin every few months.
                                 V-5
                                                                   Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
        It will be observed from Table V-2 that total treatment costs




can range from 0.06 to $1.25 per thousand gallons of drainage treated,




depending on the complexity of the treatment system and the volume flow




rate,  acidity,  and iron content of the drainage.  The variability stems




primarily from the capital cost contribution which indicates that some




treatment facilities can be installed for as low as $5,000 where a low




flow rate is coupled with a drainage that already meets the effluent limit-




ation guidelines.




        Table V-3 presents the ratio of the water treatment cost to the




value of shipments of the mines surveyed.  Clearly, mine 14 with a water




treatment cost in excess of its value of shipment cannot be expected to




continue in operation.  It is our understanding that this mine will be




closing, partly as a result of inability to comply with water pollution




regulations.









        The ratio of treatment cost to value of shipments must not, however,




be used as a standard for assessing the impact of water pollution regulations




on particular mines.  While this may be meaningful for small independent




mines, the same cannot be said for large captive facilities where the cost




impact of water treatment can be internalized within the organization in




such a manner as not to result in mine shut-down.  All that can be said with




regard to the probability of a mine shut-down is that each facility must be




evaluated separately, taking into account, among other factors, its




peculiar organizational structure, production capacity, and water treatment




requirements.
                                     V-6





                                                                  Arthur D Little, Inc

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Arthur DLittleJnc

-------
B.    FINANCIAL EFFECTS

       1.  Profitability and Shutdown Considerations



       In the long term, any increase in operating costs that results in

negation of profits would lead to a plant shut down.  In the short term,

one could argue that the pressure point vis-a-vis plant shutdown occurs

when revenues just barely exceed projected out-of-pocket costs plus

incremental capital and operating charges for continued operations with

pollution control.



       This may be expressed in notational form as follows by defining a

quantity, ($ , the net present value of the future cash flows from

projected operations.
Thus     L           [Revenues - Out of Pocket - incremental annual Pollution]
                      (VS)         Costs (CV)   Control Capital & Operating
                    	Costs  (CPC)	

                                   (1 + r)n
       n=0
Where       L     is the estimated useful life of the mine

            n     is years

            r     is the discount rate which management chooses for present
                  value/rate of return analysis

       We may rewrite the numerator  in brackets as  follows:


    O           VS
    ^-n  ^     77?   fVS - cv - cpC]
                                V-8
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
                 vs  [i - cv _  CPC
                     L    VS    VS  J
       For coal mining CV/VS  ^  0.71  (See Table III-l)
                VS  [1 - 0.71 -
        CPC
        VS~   is the Unit COSt of a11 incremental pollution control,  mine
              health and safety, etc.


  or    d^ #   .29 VS - CPC


The pressure point is reached when 6 falls to a critically low value.
          The  decision  to  shut down a plant, of course, must not only

 weigh  the  salvage value  in  comparison with v  , the present value  cal-

 culated  above, but  also  the realistic economic alternatives, and even


 non-economic factors.




          Our  belief  is that the realizable salvage values would be some.

 fraction of  the book  value  of plant and equipment plus the working

 capital  associated  with  a plant, mine, or mines in question  (See Chap-

 ter III),  adding up to a maximum of about 10% of VS.  It appears that,

 for typical  discount  rates  and mine lives, the pressure point will not

 be affected  so much by realizable salvage as by management's estimate

 of the incremental  annual cost of pollution control.




          For  the smaller  mines, the cost of compliance with other re-

 cent regulations is significant.  For example, we find that  the small
                              V-9

                                                               Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
operator will pay consultants who ensure compliance with the Coal




Mine Health & Safety regulations at a flat rate proportional to the




tons produced.  This consultant fee above amounts to about 2-5% of




VS.









    2.  Capital Spending versus Availability









        We believe that the very small coal companies may have diffi-




culty meeting capital requirements for water quality control.  For




purposes of this analysis, we have examined companies with fewer than




50 employees, and have assumed a $40,000 minimum requirement for es-




tablishments with acid mine drainage problems to meet the water qual-




ity standards considered for this study.




        Based on the 1967 Census, these establishments show the following




pattern of capital expenditure.
                                V-9a




                                                                Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
            Table V-4:   Capital Spending Pattern by Mine Segment

                        with Less than 50 Employees
                              Average Annual
                            Value of Shipments Capital Expenditure Average Annual
Employee       No. of         and Receipts         per Dollar       Capital Exp.
 Range     Establishments   per Establishment    of Shipments	 per Establishment
0-4
5-9
10-19
20-49
1673
582
636
526
$38,500
$146,000
$264,000
$666,000
0.186
0.183
0.122
0.128
$ 7,160
$26,600
$32,300
$85,400
 SOURCE;  1967 U. S. Census of Mineral Industries
                                                              Arthur D Little, Inc
                           v-io

-------
        From the IRS Statistics of Income on Coal Mining, the first

group above may be estimated to have assets of under $50,000,  The

second and third groups are estimated to be firms having assets of

from $50,000 to $250,000, and the fourth group, from $250,000 up to

$1 million.  Typically, the very small operations report marginal

profitability, or show losses, especially for tax purposes.  However,

even adjusting for depreciation and depletion allowances, they are not

considered very profitable.  All but the smallest coal mining estab-

lishments appear to utilize a significant amount of long term debt and

the small firms carry a relatively high percentage of short term and

trade credit.  On the average, these small firms show little net work-

ing capital.



        It seems obvious that the very small coal mining establishments

which are marginal to begin with, will have difficulty financing an

"unproductive" $40,000 investment that raises operating costs.  The

credit picture and financial performance of establishments with 50 or

more employees (and perhaps some of the 20 to 49 employee category),

typically with assets of $1 million or more, is such that they are not

likely to be affected as adversely from the capital availability view-

point.
                                V-ll
                                                               Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
In summary, it may be concluded that:









•  while the ratio of water treatment cost to value of shipments




   (Table V-3) may be a meaningful indicator of the economic impact




   of water pollution control (especially on small independent mines),




   it must be evaluated in the context of a specific mine's organi-




   zation and ownership, since these factors can influence the extent




   to which apparently excessive costs can be internalized, thus




   resulting in continued operation of a mine;






•  in view of the other "non-productive" demands made on the coal




   industry (e.g. Mine Health and Safety Regulations), we believe




   that additional water pollution control costs should not exceed




   about 10% of the value of shipments, if a mine is to successfully




   absorb the economic impact of these added costs;






•  we anticipate that the very small mines will experience diffi-




   culties in financing water treatment costs.  It is in this segment




   that we expect a severe impact as a result of water pollution




   control.
                             V-12
                                                              Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
C.  PRODUCTION EFFECTS



        Irrespective of who absorbs any added effluent water treatment

costs, it is important to view any probable cost effects due to water

treatment costs alone in conjunction with other factors that exert an

impact on coal mining costs.  For instance, some of the proposed strip

mining regulations are liable to affect the industry's costs to a

greater extent than would the costs of meeting water quality guidelines

considered for this study.  Restrictions on mineable reserves and mine

life, limitations on sulfur content of steam coal, and the more strin-

gent enforcement of mine health and safety laws and future OSHA stan-

dards are expected to have a significant impact on coal production costs.

The impacts of all these costs are generally additive and the decision

to shut down any establishment is made on the basis of all these factors

although any single factor can be "the straw that broke the camel's back."



        We believe that those mines in Northern Appalachia (particu-

larly Pennsylvania and West Virginia) producing less than 50,000 tons

of coal per year represent a segment of the industry that would be

particularly sensitive to water effluent regulations and would there-

fore have the highest probability of discontinuing operations.  If,

in the absence of a mine-by-mine analysis, it is assumed that this

entire industry segment is forced to close down for one of any variety

of reasons, these would represent less than 157o of the coal production

from these states.  The impact of this production loss on the industry

coal output and growth is considered negligible in the long run.
                               V-13
                                                                    Arthur D Little, Inc

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D.  EMPLOYMENT AND COMMUNITY EFFECTS









        To assess the potential adverse impacts on employment, we have




made a county-by-county evaluation of the acid mine drainage conditions




in the bituminous coal regions of Appalachia and North Central U. S.




This was based on Figure 1-3 and other related data.  Concurrently, we




determined the total mine employment as a percentage of the population




of each county.









        Table V-5 provides a perspective on the areas that are suscep-




tible to acid mine drainage costs and those communities that would




suffer a high impact because a large portion of the population is de-




pendent on coal mining.  We assume  that a county is  heavily dependent




on mining if 4% or more    of the county population were involved di-




rectly in coal mining.  Thus the combination of high mine drainage




problem areas and high mine employment isolates the areas that have




the maximum sensitivity to the impact of water pollution control




costs.  Accordingly, Greene County in Pennsylvania with




a total mine employment of 3,545 is highly sensitive




while         the other coal producing counties have a medium sensi-




tivity.  In West Virginia, Boone, Barbour, Logan, Marion, Marshall,




McDowell, Monongalia, and Wyoming counties with a cumulative coal




mining employment of 27,797 (59% of survey total), would have a high




probability of being adversely affected.
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
                                                     TABLE V-5
                                    ACID MINE DRAINAGE SENSITIVITY OF BITUMINOUS COAL
State and County

ALABAMA:

  Bibb
  Blount
  Jackson
  Jefferson
  Marion
  Shelby
  Tuscaloosa
  Walker
  Wins Con
  Others
    Totals

ILLINOIS:
  Chris tian
  Douglas
  Franklin
  Fulton
  Gallatin
  Jackson
  Jefferson
  Kankakee
  Knox
  Maconpin
  Mercer
  Montgomery
  Peoria
  Perry
  Pope
  Randolph
  St.  Clair
  Saline
  Stark
  Vermillion
  Williamson
    Totals

INDIANA:

  Clay
  Fountain
  Gibson
  Greene
  Parke
  Pike
  Spencer
  Sullivan
  Vermillion
  Vigo
  Warwick
  Others

    Totals
COUNTIES OF APPALACHIA AND NORTH-CENTRAL AMERICA

1970 Total
Coal Production
(000 Tons)
1,046
270
967
9,963
650
568
2,169
4,237
474
219
20,563
4,900
1,140
8,324
5,635
2,898
134
6,395
976
1,528
262
42
2,651
2,875
8,086
12
3,594
7,375
3,457
622
250
3,961
65,117
1,237
W
W
2,748
8
4,285
W
4,569
953
W
7,514
975


Overall
Sensitivity
M
L
L
M
L
M
M
L
L
L

L
L
L
L
H
M
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
M
L
L
M
L
L
M

L
L
L
L
L
H
L
L
L
L
L
-


Volume of Acid
Drainage 1000 Gal/Day Employment
N.A. 157
65
105
2,982
154
297
236
1,006
71
"
5,073
N.A. 798
153
1,100
590
700
18
1,226
153
127
102
15
566
292
501
" 11
408
693
845
86
115
758
9,257
N.A. 133
8
163
240
4
517
22
560
48
19
561
it _

Mine Employ as
% of County
Population
1.00%
0.20
0.30
0.30
0.80
1.00
0.20
2.00
0.50
-

2.00%
0.80
3.00
1.20
9.20
0.04
3.79
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.10
1.60
0.15
2.60
0.20
1.30
0.30
3.20
1.00
0.10
1.50

0.70%
0.04
0.50
1.00
0.30
4.00
0.10
2.60
0.20
0.02
0.40
-

Sensitivity
to
Acid MD
H
L
L
H
L
H
H
L
L
-

L
L
L
L
H
H
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
H
L
L
H
L
L
H

L
L
L
L
L
H
L
L
L
H
L
L
Total
Number
of
Mines
9
4
3
45
13
6
13
28
5
-
126
1
]
4
A
3
2
3
1
1
]
o
2
3
3
2
3
6
7
1
3
6
59
6
1
1
4
1
9
1
5
1
1
8
-
                      22,289
2,275
                                                                                                                     38
                                                         V-15
                                                                                                    Arthur D Little, Inc.

-------


TABLE V-5 (CONTINUED)




ACID MINE DRAINAGE SENSITIVITY OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COUNTIES OF APPALACHIA AND NORTH-CENTRAL AMERICA

1970 Total


Coal Production Overall Volume of Acid
State and County
KENTUCKY (EAST):
Bell
Boyd
Breathitt
Carter
Clay
Clinton
Floyd
Harlan
Jackson
Johnson
Knott
Knox
Laurel
Lawrence
Lee
Leslie
Let cher
McCreary
Magof fin
Martin
Morgan
Perry
Pike
Pulaski
Rockcastle
Wayne
Whitley
Wolfe
Sub-Totals
KENTUCKY (WEST) :
Butler
Chris t ian
Daviess
Henderson
Hopkins
McLean
Muhlenberg
Ohio
Union
Webs ter
Others
Sub-Totals
Grand Totals
MARYLAND:
Allegany
Garrett
Totals
(000 Tons)

2,803
40
3,356
27
520
168
5,349
9,422
11
2,196
3,718
795
176
286
27
2,322
8,119
479
714
1,612
21
8,175
21,299
84
14
53
704
10
75,500

228
170
804
93
12,533
94
25,903
7,269
4,620
1,089
2,379
55,182
127,682

412
1,203
1,615
Sensitivity Drainage 1000 Gal/Day

L N.A.
M "
M "
M
L
L
H
M
L "
M "
H "
L
L
L "
L "
M "
H
L "
M "
M
M
M "
H "
L "
L "
L
L
M "
-

L N.A.
L "
L "
L
M "
L
M
L
L "
L "
"



L N.A.
L "

Employment

755
20
329
19
210
51
1,994
2,626
9
389
1,113
347
85
55
26
1,054
2,406
223
97
380
14
1,798
5,914
63
8
11
462
6
20,464

55
39
91
68
2,014
28
2,112
636
61
135
N.A.
5,239
25,703

123
234
357
Mine Employ as
% of County
Population

2.10%
0.04
2.10
0.10
1.00
0.60
4.80
5.10
0.08
1.90
6.40
1.40
0.30
0.50
0.30
9.70
8.00
1.80
0.90
3.70
0.10
5.10
17.00
0.20
0.10
0.10
1.80
0.10


0.60%
0.07
0.10
0.20
5.20
0.30
7.60
3.60
0.40
1.00
N.A.



0.15%
1.10

Sensitivity
to
Acid MD

L
H
H
H
L
L
H
L
L
H
H
L
L
L
L
L
H
'-
H
H
H
L
H
L
L
L
L
H


L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
-



L
L

Total
Xuiiber
of
'lines

60
5
2°
4
37
5
176
141
2
51
97
48
14
10
2
56
1S9
8
6
15
5
12 '
496
9
3
3
43
1
1 ,623

6
4
1
3
35
3
27
14
4
1
_^L
98
1,721

20
-M
50
V-16
                                    Arthur D Little, Inc.

-------
State and County

OHIO:

  Athens
  Belmont
  Carroll
  Columbiana
  Coshocton
  Callia
  Guernsey
  Harrison
  Hocking
  Holmes
  Jackson
  Jefferson
  Lawrence
  Mahoning
  Meigs
  Monroe
  Morgan
  Muskingum
  Noble
  Perrv
  Stark
  Tuscaranas
  Vinton
  Washings ton
  Wayne
  Others
    Totals

PENNSYLVANIA:

  Allegheny
  Armstrong
  Beaver
  Bedford
  Butler
  Cambria
  Centre
  Clarion
  Clearfield
  Clinton
  Ilk
  Favette
  Greene
  Indiana
  Jefferson
  Lawrence
  Lycoming
  Mercer
  Somerset
  Tioga
  Venango
  Washington
  Westmoreland
  Others

    Totals
TABLE V-5 (CONTINUED)
ACID MINE DRAINAGE SENSITIVITY OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COUNTIES OF APPALACHIA AND NORTH-CENTRAL AMERICA

1970 Total
Coal Production
(000 Tons)
56
14,572
503
1,239
2,865
218
48
12,575
165
372
968
5,122
325
448
13
W
4,437
743
2,533
3,731
339
2,167
605
_
40
1,267
55,351
4,642
7,795
219
19
1,984
6,559
1,342
4,383
5,879
451
402
1,825
11,586
8,389
1,663
883
99
226
3,743
885
477
14,464
2,610
245
80,770


Overall
Sensitivity
M
M
L
M
L
M
L
H
L
L
L
M
L
L
M
M
M
L
M
L
L
L
L
M
L
_

M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
H
H
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
-



Volume of Acid
Drainage 1000 Gal /Day
N.A.
"
"
"
"
"
ir
rr
"
11
"
II
n
II
"
"
11
"
II
"
"
"
"
n
"
II

106,445
35,094
_
1,670
7,877
69,199
6,336
1,930
24,192
432
1,404
2,880
338
115,080
4,514
144
288
_
10,440
288
-
27,330
33,916
1,087
450,884



Employment
14
2,461
80
347
293
41
14
2,585
31
61
186
831
58
81
12
296
393
147
152
536
67
460
83
27
4
-
9,260
1,337
1,783
70
13
477
3,088
286
494
1,378
71
69
864
3,545
2,506
329
163
10
18
1,047
114
69
5,053
764
N.A.
23,548

Mine Employ as
% of County
Pqpula t 1 on
0.01%
3.00
0.30
0.30
1.00
0.20
0.03
14.50
0.20
0.30
0.06
0.10
0.10
0.03
0.05
2.00
3.00
0.20
1.50
2.00
0.02
0.60
I. 00
0.50
0.005
-

0.80%
2.20
0.03
0.03
0.40
1.50
0.40
1.30
1.70
0.20
0.20
0.50
9.00
3.30
0.70
0.10
0.01
0.01
1.35
0.31
0.10
2.30
0.20
-


Sensitivity
to
Acid MD
H
H
L
H
L
H
L
H
L
L
L
h
L
L
H
H
H
L
H
I
L
L
L
H
L
-

H
H
H
H
H
H
a
H
H
H
H
H
h
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
-

lotal
Number
of
Nines
5
36
-4
38
11
7
-
23
7
j
19
35
5
9
3
1
2
12
b
JJ
y
3b
8
0
1
-
307
23
73
7
6
36
51
22
63
101
6
18
35
26
74
70
23
3
3
89
8
10
31
29
-
807
                                                         V-17
                                                                                                   Arthur DLittleJnc

-------
TABLE V-5 (CONTINUED)
ACID MINE DRAINAGE SENSITIVITY OF BITUMINOUS COAL



State and County
TENNESSEE:
Anderson
Campbell
Claiborne
Cumberland
Fentress
Grundy
Hamilton
Marlon
Morgan
Putnam
Scott
Sequatchie
Van Buren
Others
Totals
VIRGINIA:
Buchanan
Dickenson
Lee
Montgomery
Russell
Scott
Tazewell
Wise
Others
Totals
WEST VIRGINIA:
Barbour
Boone
Brooke
Clay
Fayette
Cllmer
Grant
Greenbrier
Hancock
Harrison
Kanawha
Lewis
Logan
Marion
Marshall
Mason
McDowell
Mercer
Mineral
Mingo
Monongalia
Nicholas
Ohio
Pocahontas
Preston
Raleigh
Randolph
Summers
Taylor
Tucker
Upshur
Wayne
Webster
Wyoming
Others
Totals

1970 Total
Coal Production
(000 Tons)

1,813
1,591
1,922
5
43
134
17
745
434
80
605
298
400
137
8,224

14,825
7,147
1,127
w
2,333
W
1,115
8,466
13
35,026

3,612
12,212
995
W
4,700
93
2,422
478
W
7,190
11,724
333
12,682
9,294
5,162
646
17,146
1,159
363
2,225
12,827
7,277
W
40
3,019
10,426
649
21
225
300
870
105
254
12,969
2,700
144,118
COUNTIES OF

Overall
Sensitivity

M
M
M
M
M
L
L
L
M
L
M
L
L
-


H
H
M
L
M
L
M
H
-


H
H
M
L
L
L
M
L
L
M
M
L
H
H
H
L
H
L
L
M
H
M
M
L
M
M
L
L
M
L
L
M
L
H
-

APPALACHIA AND NORTH-CENTRAL AMERICA

Volume of Acid
Drainage 1000 Gal/Day Employment

N.A. 429
317
461
7
32
29
" 11
" 236
78
28
171
116
74
"
1,989

5,222
1,875
303
5
784
9
352
" 2,070
"
10,620

N.A. 922
3,665
" 267
205
" 1,692
53
573
241
13
1,588
3,183
59
3,779
2,697
1,642
434
7,101
529
81
943
2,870
3,012
794
11 26
" 393
4,017
" 288
10
74
64
292
143
183
" 5,121
"
46,954

Mine Employ as
% of County
Population

0.70%
1.10
2.40
0.04
0.20
0.20
0.005
0.90
0.05
0.10
1.10
2.00
2.00
-


14.20%
9.30
1.20
0.01
3.00
0.03
0.78
4.74
-


6.00%
12.80
1.00
1.80
2.70
0.70
6.90
0.70
0.03
2.00
1.30
0.03
6.20
4.20
4.30
1.80
10.00
0.80
0.40
2.40
5.20
11.90
1.20
0.20
1.50
5.20
1.00
0.07
0.50
0.80
1.60%
0.30
1.30
14.70
-

                                                                                                            Total
                                                                                                Sensitivity  Xutiber
                                                                                                    to         ot
                                                                                                 Acid MD     Mines
N.A.  = Not  Available
W    = Withheld by USBM
L    = Low    "1
M    = Medium  I- Sensitivity
H    = High  J
                                                                                                              46
                                                                                                              42
                                                                                                              15
                                                                                                               3
                                                                                                               3
                                                                                                               1
                                                                                                               3
                                                                                                              2 7
                                                                                                              18
                                                                                                               1
                                                                                                              485
                                                                                                              87
                                                                                                              133
                                                                                                              803
H
H
H
L
L
L
L
L
L
H
H
L
H
H
H
L
H
L
L
H
H
L
H
L
H
L
L
L
H
L
L
H
L
H
53
104
12
3
59
5
11
19
11
59
82
12
85
14
5
3
196
17
13
58
38
90
2
3
69
100
18
2
9
4
20
5
16
132
                                                                                                             1,329
SOURCE:   1970 Minerals Yearbook
         ADL Estimates
         Pennsylvania Department of  Health
         City and County Yearbook
¥18
Arthur D Little, Ir

-------
         Overall, the counties shown in Table V-6 in the bituminous coal pro-

ducing states are susceptible to a major adverse employment and community im-


pact.  In the absence of a detailed breakdown relating sensitivity to mine

size, we show in Table V-7 the number and 1970 coal production of the small

mines which we believe constitute the most sensitive sector of the industry,

as well as the industry productivity in the various states.


        It is unfortunate that many of these counties which are susceptible

to mine shut down are the same counties which have in the past been effected


by high unemployment and declining economy.  Many attempts have been made

by both the Federal and various state governments to either attract other in-

dustry into the area or relocate more people to other areas, but to no avail.

It seems that the problems still exist and may even get aggravated further.


E.   BALANCE OF PAYMENTS EFFECTS


        We do not expect possible increases in coal production costs due to

enforcement of mine effluent quality standard to exert any noticeable effect


on the United States balance-of payments position.  A high proportion of the

exported coal tonnage consists of low-sulfur metallurgical coal consumed by

steel producers in Canada, Japan, South America and Western Europe.  Because

of its high quality and competitive price, we conclude that this market would

be unaffected in the short term.  The major impact on metallurgical coal

consumption in the long term (and therefore on export markets) will be from

the development of substitutes — either from non-coking coals or other

fossil fuels.

        If metallurgical coal sources in Appalachia are adversely

affected by these standards, any export production curtailment would probably

be made up by increased production from the Western mines.  As a matter

of fact, this trend in favor of the Western mines is already noticeable.

The other reason for our conclusion is that metallurgical ccal

enjoys a higher value than steam coal and is, therefore, bf;Cter suited to

                                  V-19
                                                                   Arthur D Little, Inc

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TABLE V-6:  AREAS AND COMMUNITIES WITH MAXIMUM SENSITIVITY TO WATER
POLLUTION
STATE
Illinois
Indiana
Kentucky



Pennsylvania
West Virginia







Virginia


CONTROL COSTS.
COUNTY
Gallatin
Pike
Floyd
Knott
Letcher
Pike
Greene
Barbour
Boone
Logan
Marion
Marshall
McDowell
Monongalia
Wyoming
Buchanan
Dickenson
Wise

COAL MINE EMPLOYMENT
700
517
1,994
1,113
2,406
5,914
3,545
922
3,665
3,779
2,697
1,642
7,101
2,870
5,121
5,222
1,875
2,070
                                        Total
53,153
                                V-20
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Inc

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                                                                                                            Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
absorb any additional costs due to waste water treatment.  It should be




noted that because of the inelasticity of demand, one should expect an




increase in foreign exchange earnings when the price increases as a




result of a full pass on.  This is a second order effect and cannot be




quantified within the limits of this analysis.
                                  V-22
                                                                  Arthur D Little, Inc

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                     VI.  LIMITS OF THE ANALYSIS









A.  GENERAL




        In undertaking an analysis of the impact of pending pollution




regulations on natural resource-based industries, one must face




immediately the problem of lack of similarity of operations.  No  two




mines are alike, even if they produce the same mineral commodity.  Unlike




manufacturing facilities, it is difficult to identify a norm or the




typical mine, and from there determine the deviations that can occur.




Modeling of this sort could quickly lead to erroneous conclusions.









        A proper analysis of impact of regulations should be done on a




mine-by-mine basis.  However, time and money constraints do not allow




this type of analysis to be made.  On the other hand, an analysis of




an industry sector, such as several mines with obvious common charac-




teristics, could tend to allow the investigator to determine the  areas




where extreme sensitivity to regulation may occur, and in turn potential




areas of high impact.









        This is the approach that was taken in this study.  We believe




the analysis to be accurate for the mines or operations that were




analyzed individually.  Extrapolation to other mines would have a lower




degree of confidence.  Our sample of the coal industry was quite  narrow




(less than 0.5% of the total number of mines),  because EPA was unable to




furnish information on effluent quality and volumes from individual mines




and because of budget and time constraints.
                                                                  Arthur D Little, Inc

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Of this limited sample, we find that one mine will be seriously affected




with eventual termination of operations.









        Turning to EPA's effluent guidelines and associated costs supplied to




us by the EPA, we find that there is a serious question regarding the




effluent guidelines viz. can the      guidelines for suspended solids




be met without filtration in some cases.    If   filtration is necessary,




higher costs might be incurred than assumed for this study, and result




in a greater impact on the coal industry.  This is an area that must be




analyzed further.  Another example of variability is the fact that for




a general cost analysis, we assumed a 10-year life for water pollution




control equipment.  In specific instances involving the small operators,




mine life is much shorter than this and all of the pollution control




equipment is not salvagable.  We also believe that the suggested EPA




sampling schedule will have an adverse impact on the small operator.








        In making our analysis, we were required to assume that the coal




mining industry is subject to impact by pending water pollution legislation




only.  However, we do recognize the additional (or concurrent) impact of




the coal mine health and safety program and its more rigorous enforcement




in the future, black lung  benefits, future OSHA standards, the air




pollution legislation and other regulations that affect the value of coal,




and how these contribute to the decision-makers' problems in determining




whether or not a mine stays open or closes.  For example, recent estimates




of incremental cost resulting from the coal mine health and safety act alone




vary from $0.91 to $2.15 per ton (Mining Engineering, Oct. 1972).










                                VI-2



                                                                  Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
        Another problem which arises deals with the enforceability of the




legislation.  It is known that the degree of enforcement varies widely,




from region to region.  Since many coal mining operations are family




enterprises, the degree of enforcement will vary widely.  Thus, the




probable impact could be questionable.  An analysis of enforceability




may be a very important input to the overall impact study of this




industry.









        If adequate data on effluent volumes from mines, both underground




and strip, were available, an overall impact of the pending water control




legislation could have been evaluated and the impact translated to the




U. S. economy and the energy situation that presently exists.  Further,




such a study would focus on the most sensitive regional situations and the




effect on these localities.
                                  VI-3




                                                                  Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
               APPENDIX A
DESCRIPTION OF THE  COAL MINING INDUSTRY
                                                Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
                               PREFACE
          In accordance with our scope of work, we provide here a
description of the industry to provide the background information
necessary for understanding the main body of the report.  Because of
its requirements, EPA requested that this background information be
provided in the following standardized format to the extent possible.

          A.  Demand

              1.  Product(s) and substitute product(s)

              2.  Size, location and relative importance of markets
                  (including international markets).

              3.  Distribution system.

              4.  Recent market trends (i.e., price and volume by,
                  product).

              5.  Government influence on market (e.g., Federal
                  Government is major customer).

          B.  Supply

              1.  Industry structure

                  a.  Outline of production process

                  b.  Type and location of raw materials

                  c.  Number and location of firms, plants

                  d.  Type of firms

                      —large/small
                      --integrated/non-Integrated
                      —multiplant/single plant
                      —multiproduct/single product
                      —diversified/non-diversified
                      —stage in production process

                  e.  Types of plants

                      —large/ small
                      —new/old
                      —high technology/low technology
                      —efficient/inefficient
                      —stage in production process

                  f.  Number of employees and skill levels
                                                                 Arthur D Little, b

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    g.  Significant recent trends

2.  Financial structure and trends

    a.  Prices

    b.  Sales

    c.  Costs - fixed, variable

    d.  Profits

3.  Current industry capacity and capacity utilization
    and recent trends.

4.  Current degree of competition and competitive
    practices (including impact of foreign competition)
    and recent trends.

5.  Current government influence on supply (e.g., quotas,
    subsidies) and recent trends.
                     Ml
                                                   Arthur D Little Inc

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A.  DEMAND

1.  Competitive Energy Sources

          The economic and industrial growth of the United States has
been largely based on its energy and mineral resources.  Of these, coal
constitutes a very basic resource, since it is the principal energy
source for generating the large amounts of low-cost electric power
needed by most industrial activities.  The demand for coal is a derived
demand.  It is derived from the demand for electricitv, for heat and
for a multitude of other goods and services.  The total demand for coal
Is a part of the complex demand for energy of all types with its sub-
stitution effects among coal, gas, oil and nuclear energy plus legisla-
tion on pollution limits, coal quality limits, transportation factors
etc.

          Figure A-l depicts the relative proportions of the energy
consumption of the United States supplied by the major sources in 1950
and 1970, as well as the projected supply pattern for 1990.  While the
percentage share of the energy market supplied by coal declined from
over 40% in 1950 to just 207, in 1970, projections for 1990 call for coal
to hold its own in the next two decades.  The gains predicted for
nuclear energy will be made largely at the expense of natural gas.

          The importance of coal as an energ" source takes on added
importance when viewed through the eyes of the power generation
industry.  As shown in Figure A-2, coal accounted for nearly two thirds
of this industry's total fuel demand in 1970.  While the proportion of
the utility industry's fuel demand supplied by coal might decline after
1990, primarily because of the impact of nuclear power generation, we
believe that coal consumption will steadily increase in absolute terms.
The costs of nuclear power have been higher than predicted, and the
construction program is many years behind schedule as a result of
rising concern about the environmental impact of nuclear power plants.

2.  >farkets

          A discussion of the markets for coal must recognize a
difference between the market sectors for metallurgical coal and that
for steam coal.  The demand for metallurgical coal is characteristically
inelastic in the short run with respect to price and may in fact remain
so in the long run.  Substitution of alternate coals or fuels would
occur when mechanically suitable chars can be produced from non-coking
coals and if alternative fuel costs become favorable.  Where coal is
                                  A1
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
c
0>
a
<0
3
.a
o
    80
    60
    40
    20
         Share %
                                       74
            1950
                   1970
                          1990
 32
                                Coal
                                Gas
                16
p r-;,i""v
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  ./
   s  '
                                 Oil
              1950
1970
              1990
                                                   465
                        350

                                                   230
                                                        c
                                                        o
                         116
        Source: Chem. Eng., Oct. 30, 1972
        'includes geothermal energy

   FIGURE A-1  DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. ENERGY DEMAND BY
               SOURCE FOR 1950-1970, AND PROJECTED
               1990 PATTERN
                             A2
                                                                 Arthur D Little, I

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     3000
    2500
     1970
                      1975
                                        1980
                                                         1985
                                                                          1990
       F.GURE A-2 UN.TED STATES ELECTR.C UT.L.TY FUEL DEMAND, 1970-1990




Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc.




                                      A3
                                                                         Arthur D Little Inc

-------
clearly the cheapest available fuel, the demand for steam coal is
similarly inelastic.  Generally, however, the demand function is com-
plex and dependent to a high degree on interfuel competition i.e. the
cost of fuel oil or natural gas to a major consumer.

          Table A-l is a breakdown of the coal markets for the
principal coal-producing states.  Included also are the sulfur contents
of the coals shipped to the various markets, since this parameter
determines in part the most advantageous market for each coal product.

          Figure A-3, a graph of bituminous coal production and con-
sumption statistics from 1962 to 1971, includes a breakdown of con-
sumption tonnages by industries or markets.  The electrical utility
industry is by far the largest and fastest growing market for coal,
accounting in 1971 for about 58% of the total consumption.  The intake
by the steel industry has remained virtually constant with time,
despite large increases in steel tonnage output; this is a consequence
of improvements in blast furnace technology, which have reduced coke
consumption rates.  The development of supplementary fuel oil and gas
injection has lowered the coke consumption still further.

          Following World War II, bituminous coal exports became an
important item of U.S. foreign trade, contributing significantly to the
international balance of payments.  Table A-2 shows the trends in coal
export and import for a selection of years between 1950 and 1970.
Exports fluctuated widely prior to 1961 because of various emergencies
abroad; the lack of any major fuel shortages since then has enabled
exports to increase steadily.  Because of its high quality and com-
petitive price relative to locally mined coal, we believe that U.S.
metallurgical coal will continue to enjoy a favorable market, especially
in Canada, Japan, and Western Europe.  The recent trend is increasing
export of western metallurgical coals to Japan at the expense of
eastern coals.

          In 1970, the United States exported 70.9 million tons of coal,
an increase of 14.7 million tons over the corresponding 1969 figure.
The increased demand for U.S. coal stemmed from an unprecedented rise
in world steel production, a depletion of large coal stockpiles, and a
reduction in coal mining capacity abroad.  The total revenue earned from
coal export in 1970 was $91 million, representing 2.3% of the total
national export value.

          Nearly 96% of the exported tonnage uent to Canada, Japan, and
Europe, and the bulk of the remainder rent to Brazil and Chile.  Ship-
ments to the Iron Curtain countries amounted to 466,000 tons, all
destined for East Oerraany and Romania.  Exports to these Eastern T'lor
                                                                 Arthur D Little In

-------
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                                                                      Arthur D Little, Inc

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Bituminous Bituminous Consumption
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    1962 1963  1964  1965 1966
Source:  Coal Age, February 1972
                              1967 1968  1969  1970  1971
FIGURE A-3  1962-1971 PATTERNS OF COAL PRODUCTION AND
            CONSUMPTION IN THE UNITED STATES
                                                           Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
                               TABLE A-2



                  TRENDS IN U. S. FOREIGN TRADE IN COAL

                             1950 - 1970
Year


1950

1957

1960

1965

1968

1970
Total Exports'
 (106 tons)

    25.5

    76.5

    36.5

    50.2

    50.6

    70.9
Total Imports
 (103 tons)

   346.7

   366.5

   260.5

   184.4

   224.4

    36.4
  Excludes shipments to U. S. military forces
Source;  Bituminous Coal Data,  1971 Edition,
         National Coal Association
                                 A8
                                                                 Arthur D Little, In(

-------
countries totaled 159,000 tons in 1969.  Imports, as shown in Table
A-2, have steadily declined since 1964 and totaled only 36,400 tons in
1970, a mere 0.007% of the yearly domestic consumption.

3.  Distribution System

          Recent trends in the modes of coal distribution are shoT/n in
Table A-3.  It should be pointed out that, except for metallurgical
coal which can, because of its relatively high value, travel long
distances, there is no "national" market for coal.  Steam coal is
generally produced and consumed within a specific geographical region.
The average haul is between 290 and 430 miles.  An exception has been
the growing tendency for Western low-sulfur coal to be transported to
Mid-Western generating stations.  Thus the competitive reach of
Western coals is stretching to Chicago, St. Paul, Oklahoma, and Texas.

          Coal transportation is dominated by the railroads, handling
about 73% of all bituminous coal and lignite.  In fact, coal provides
the backbone of the operations of the nation's railroads, contributing
25% of railroad tonnage and 10% of the total revenues.

          Figure A-4 illustrates the relative costs of transporting
coal by the alternative modes.  Railroad rates have been declining
since 1958 and this decline is expected to continue.  Contributing in
no small measure to this decline is the development of unit-trains in
the early 1960's, as well as the design and development of storage and
materials handling systems which have resulted in lower car turnaround
times and manpower requirements.

          Recent pressures on electrical utility plants to curtail the
level of SOX emissions by using low sulfur fuels has affected the con-
sumption of eastern high sulfur steam coal and has led to a reduction
in coal tonnages delivered by some of the major Eastern railroads which
had dominated coal transportation in the past.  Adverse impacts on
profits have been felt by such lines as the Delaware and Hudson, the
Baltimore and Ohio, and the Western Maryland rail-lines.  On the other
hand, Mid-Western and Western lines have reaped the benefits of the
increasing tonnages of coal that move eastward from the low-sulfur
reserves of the West.  Thus the Southern, the Seaboard Coast Line,
and the Illinois Central Gulf have all shown recent impressive
growths attributable to their rising coal hauls.

          Other coal transportation modes have also witnessed important
changes in recent years.  Tow boats have increased in size, thereby
increasing the basic tow and reducing overall costs.

          Other factors which offer opportunities for more favorable
delivered prices of coal and of coal-generated energy are the adapta-
bility of coal to transmission by coal-slurry pipelines, and the
development of extra-high-voltage transmission of electricity over long
                                  A9
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Inc

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                               TABLE A-3
TREND IN MODES OF
COAL SHIPMENT
(million tons)
Load at Mine
For Shipment By
Year
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
Rail
371.
387.
404.
396.
397.
409.
Water
5
0
5
4
9
1
60
62
67
66
71
81
.3
.1
.0
.9
.0
.3
Trucked to
Final Destination
68
67
62
61
66
74
.3
.0
.0
.8
.0
.0
Used at
Mine
12
17
19
20
25
4
.0
.8
.1
.2
.6
.1
Total
Shipment
512.1
533
552
545
560
602
.9
.6
.2
.5
.9




1
       Total shipment includes coal consumed at mine-mouth
       generating plants.
Source;   Bituminous Coal Data, 1971 Edition,
         National Coal Association
                                 A-10
                                                                 Arthur D Little; I

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       18


       16


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distances from coal-fired power plants in or relatively close to
indigenous coal producing areas.

4.  Recent Market Trends

          As was shown in Figure A-3, the general trend in coal produc-
tion has been upward, except in 1968, when labor disputes caused it to
drop.  This factor again played an important role in the 1971 dip, along
with the general slowdown in the free world economy and the implenenta-
tion of stringent air pollution control and mine safety regulations.

          The 1970 and projected 1980 data on consumption are shown in
Table A-  according to end use.  While the coal demand of the electric
utilities industry is expected to remain strong, the use of high sulfur
eastern steam coal will be limited by EPA regulations, at least in the
short term until SOX control processes are widely adopted at power
plants.  Also, the EPA regulations will  accelerate the trend towards
substituting imported low or medium sulfur fuel oil for local coal,
which was started many years ago on the East Coast and is now spreading
to the Midwest.  The ferrous metallurgical coal requirements should
increase only modestly as coke rates per ton of blast furnace iron
decrease and as supplementary injection of low-sulfur oil becomes more
universally adopted.  Industrial demand is expected to remain stable,
while the shrinking residential and commercial market is expected to
remain fixed at about 12 million tons.  Overall, however, the cumula-
tive demand for coal should remain strong, and its average price should
slowly rise, reflecting increases in costs of operation and capital
installations.  A major new market is represented by coal gasification
and coal liquification processes that are currently being developed
under public and private sponsorship.  This new market is not expected
to amount to much before 1980.

5.  Government Influence

          In addition to the various Federal government programs aimed
at ensuring the future availability of coal at reasonable costs,
developing new uses for coal, expanding exports, and providing funda-
mental information on resources and availabilities, the thrust of
recent government activity has been directed toward preserving or
restoring the environmental quality of mined land and health and safety
in mining.  These activities have been spurred on by increasing public
concern over the environmental deterioration due to mining operations,
particularly strip mining.

•  As of November 1972, the Federal government had no regulatory role
   in the conduct of strip mining.  However, one bill, - HR 6482 - was
   passed by the House in early October.  Among other provisions, it
   would prohibit contour mining on all slopes exceeding 20°.  It
   would also require all coal operators to obtain mining permits of
   one-year duration which are renewable after reviex? by state and/or
                                   A12
                                                                 Arthur D Little, ln(

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                            TABLE A-4


                    U. S. COAL CONSUMPTION BY USE

                        (millions of short tons)



                                         1970             1980


Electric Utilities                        320              525

Metallurgical Coal                        102              120

Industrial                                 84               84

Residential and Commercial                 12               12

    Total                                 518              741
Sources:  Bureau of Mines for 1970 actual;  1971 National
          Petroleum Council Energy Forecast, and Arthur D.
          Little, Inc. estimates for 1980.
                             A 13

                                                            Arthur D Little, (nc

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   federal authority.  It also would establish a $100 million federal
   fund to assist in reclaiming previously stripped land.   A Senate
   bill, - S 630, that would cover strip mining of all minerals could
   not be passed before the adjournment of the 92nd Congress.  The
   chances are good that a bill to regulate strip mining will be
   reintroduced when the new Congress meets.

•  The Federal Coal Mine Health and Safety Act of 1969 was passed to
   reduce the hazards of underground coal mining.  Among other things,
   it seeks to ensure adequate environmental and coal face ventilation
   underground, ensure proper cleaning and rock dusting practices, pro-
   vide adequate roof support, limit the rate of advance of continuous
   miners in order to keep the operator under boltod roof, and regulate
   the specifications on underground mining ecmipment.   Coal opera-
   tors report production cost increases due to this law of about 257,
   ranging from an average low of $0.91 for continuous captive nines to
   a high of $2.15 for conventional captive nines (rining Engineering,
   Oct. 1972)

•  The regulatory activities of the Interstate Connerce Conmission,
   especially as they apply to railroad freight rate, influence the
   market for coal.  The delivered price of coal is composed of the
   f.o.b. mine price and the cost of transportation from the nine to
   the consumer.  Transportation costs currentl^ represent about 40%
   of the delivered price of coal, and are thus significant in
   determining the competitive posture of coal viz-a-viz the other fuel
   sources.  It is apparent that further escalations in transportation
   costs would make fuel substitution much more attractive to present
   coal consumers.

•  Similarly, the activities of the Federal Power Commission relating
   to energy rates and the value of imported foreign energy sources
   exert a direct impact on the coal markets.  In 1970, fuel imports
   added $2.7 billion to the U.S. balance-of-payments deficit and a
   figure of in excess of $15 billion is projected for 1980 if current
   trends persist.  Such deficits are obviously intolerable and efforts
   to establish substitute domestic sources, preferably based on coal,
   are beginning to gain momentum.

•  The Environmental Protection Agency's standards limiting the sulfur
   content of utility boiler fuels affect the competitive ability of
   eastern coals as well as the domestic development pattern of coal
   resources.  As sulfur emission standards become more stringent,
   there would be a tendency for low-sulfur oil and gas to substitute
   for high-sulfur coal in those instances xrfiere the economics and
   availability warrant it.  Furthermore, exploitation of the low-sulfur
   reserves of the Western United States becomes increasingly
   attractive.

•  There are several other regulatory pressures exerted on the coal
                                 A 14
                                                                 Arthur D Little In<

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   industry by State and Federal Agencies.  Examples are regulations
   relating to backfilling of top soil and overburden in strip mines,
   coal left in place to prevent water seepage from adjoining under-
   ground mines, etc.  These pressures generally result in increased
   operating costs and/or a loss of reserves and decreased mine life.

B.  SUPPLY

1.  Industry Structure

     a.  Production Processes

          The particular mining technique adopted for a given coal bed
is determined to a large degree by a combination of factors including
the seam topography and physical characteristics (thickness, depth
below the surface), which in turn influence to some degree the economics
of mine production.  Seams may vary in thickness from less than a foot
to as much as 100 feet, although for economic reasons, only those seams
thicker than about 30 inches are commercially exploitable at present.
In addition, current technology of coal extraction limits the maximum
depth of exploitable reserves to no more than about 3000 feet below the
surface.

          Three primary mining techniques and combinations thereof are
currently practiced:  strip mining, underground mining, and auger
mining.  These are further described below, and their respective per-
centage contributions to the national bituminous coal output are shown
in Figure A-5.

          (a)  Strip Mining.  Strip mining has increased in popularity
since World War I because it enjoys certain characteristic advantages
such as higher output per man-shift (resulting in lower production cost
per ton of strip coal), lower requirement of generally scarce labor,
and perhaps a faster return on investment.  However, stripping is not
universally applicable to all coal seams.  To qualify, a seam must be
located relatively close to the surface, with an overburden of no more
than 100 to 125 feet.  In practice, the overburden is first removed
using scrapers, bulldozers, or mechanically-operated shovels.  The coal
is scooped up by pox^er shovels and loaded into trucks.  The productivity
of strip mines has been about 36 tons per man-day over the last three
years.  A large strip mine requires an investment of between $4.00 and
$12.00 per annual ton on productive capacity.

          (b)  Auger Mining.  This method derives its name from the fact
that a large auger is employed as a cutting head, along with a tube and
screw for coal transportation.  Auger mining is a relatively recent
introduction to the coal industry and is used mostly in the eastern
states where coal is extracted from the rough terrain of the
Appalachian Region.  It possesses advantages where the overburden is
too great for strip mining.  The mechanism is unitized so that the
                                 A 15
                                                                 Arthur D Little, fnc

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16
                                        Arthur D Little Inc

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 coal-removing system is extensible as the cutter penetrates the coal
 seam.  The auger, generally operated from an outcrop location,  is
 mounted on movable frames and can bore holes over 200 feet deep.  The
 coal falls from the auger into a conveyor and is elevated into  a truck.
 Like conventional strip mining, auger mining enjoys a high productivity,
 with the average figures for 1969 and 1970 being respectively 39.9 and
 34.3 tons per man-day.

           (c)  Underground Fining.  Underground raining may be further
 categroized into two broad types which have been employed in the
 United States:  room-and-pillar mining, and longwall mining.  The
 roon-and-pillar method  is in more common use, accounting for about 90%
 of present underground  mining; however, the lon^al! technique,
 originally developed in Europe, has been registering definite rains in
 recent years, primarily because it offers increased nine safety and
 productive capacity.

           In roon-and-pillar mining, entries into the coal bodv serve as
.haulage ways and fan out into the coal bed vl.th side or cross entries
 fron which the coal is  removed to forn roons.  As nuch as 50% of the
 coal is left to support the roof.  In the longwall method, a continuous
 mining face is maintained in the coal seam.  After nininp,, the.  roof is
 permitted to settle, 30 to 50 feet from the nine working face.   Waste
 rock is used to support the roof and for maintenance of haulage
 roadways.

           Perhaps the most significant mechanical accomplishment in
 underground mining has  been the advent of multi-purpose machines
 known as continuous miners.  These combine in a single unit the actions
 of dislodging the coal  from the solid seam and loading it into  some unit
 of a transportation system.  In effect, they combine the separate steps
 of cutting, drilling, blasting, and loading.

           The rapid rate of coal extraction in continuous mining makes
 it imperative that haulage be synchronized with extraction and  loading
 operations.  Among recent innovations aimed at accomplishing this
 objective is the development of short belt conveyor systems to  move
 coal from continuous mining machines to the main haulage system without
 the use of shuttle cars.

           The capital investment for a large (over one million  tons per
 year) underground mine  in deep overburden ranges  from about $3.50 to
 $15.00 per annual ton of production, and can vary outside this
 range depending on specific conditions.

           (d)  Cleaning Process.  The objective of coal cleaning is to
 remove solid foreign matter, such as rock and slate, from the coal prior
 to its use.  The advantages thus derived are a reduction in ash and
 sulfur content, control of ash fusibility, increase in calorific value,
 and improvement of coking properties.  The need to clean coal prior to
                                 A 17
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Inc

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shipment has resulted from factors such as the adoption of mechanized
mining, which does not differentiate between coal and impurities, and
the imposition of stringent quality specifications by consumers, who
are increasingly conscious of environmental pollution due to coal
combustion.

   The proportion of U.S. coal production subjected to some form of
mechanical cleaning increased rapidly from about 22% in 1940 to a
high of about 67% in 1961.  Since 1961, this figure dropped, partlv
because of the increasing production of Western coal, which requires
little if any cleaning.  About 54% of all U.S. coal underwent mechani-
cal cleaning in 1970, which amounted to a total of 325.5 million tons.
Of this, 305.6 million tons were treated by wet methods and therefore
involved the consumption of some process water.

          Mechanical cleaning of coal is possible because of the
difference in specific gravity between the free impurities (density
between about 1.7 and 4.9) and coal, which has a density of about 1.3.
Generally, cleaning processes can be classified as either gravity-based
stratification or non-gravity processes.  Included in the former
category are wet processes such as launder washers, jigs, classifiers,
and tables; the non-gravity category includes the heavy-media methods
(in air or water) as well as froth flotation.

          The principles of some of the more important types of cleaning
processes currently in use are briefly reviewed below.

•  Jigs - Jigging is one of the oldest ways to wash coal and is still
   the most universal method.  It is essentially a special form of
   hindered settling which stratifies the particles into layers of
   different densities.  Jigs can handle closely sized feeds as well as
   mixed sizes through a wide range of specific gravities.  About 46%
   of all coals cleaned by wet methods in the United States in 1970
   were treated in jigs.

•  Launders - The launder washer operates on the principle of flowing
   current concentration and hindered settling.  The launder consists
   of a long, sloping trough with discharge boxes located at intervals
   along the trough bottom.  Coal and flush water are fed at the high
   end, and the heavy-gravity material is withdrawn through the
   discharge boxes.  Launders are capable of cleaning coal of practi-
   cally any size.  Their capacity varies with the width of the launder
   and size of the coal feed.

•  Tables - In 1970, tables accounted for about 14% of the wet-cleaned
   coal in the United States.  Of the various coal-cleaning processes
   that are based on the principle of gravity concentration, the
   tabling process is unique in that it is especially adapted to the
   treatment of the fine rather than the coarse coal sizes.  The only
   tables of importance in the coal industry are riffled shaking tables,
                                 A 18
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Ir

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   in which a deck that is inclined slightly from the horizontal is
   shaken with an asymmetrical motion in the direction of the long axis.
   The coal travels across the deck at right angles, while the refuse
   travels essentially parallel to the motion.  Wash water flows over
   the table at right angles to the direction of the motion.

•  Heavy Media Process - In this process, coal is separated from its
   associated impurities by a suspension of finely divided solids in
   water, aqueous solutions of inorganic salts, and organic liquids.
   The separating medium is adjusted to achieve a predetermined
   gravity of separation, so that clean coal will float in it and
   the heavier refuse materials will sink.  At present, finely ground
   magnetite is used almost exclusively as the medium, because it is
   easily recovered and cleaned by magnetic methods.  Furthermore,
   varying gravities can be obtained merely by mixing with water.
   Cleaning coal by a heavy media process involves feeding crushed and
   screened coal into a vessel containing a suspension of the magnetite
   medium at the desired specific gravity.  The coal floats and is
   continuously removed, while the refuse particles sink and are also
   removed.  The popularity of this process is underscored by the fact
   that it was used for 35% of all wet-processed coal in the United
   States in 1970.

•  Froth Floatation - This is a process for separating fine materials
   from their associated impurities by having one constituent adhere
   to air or oil and rise to the surface.  The theory is based on the
   fact that an air bubble will become attached to small particles and
   carry them with it as it rises to the surface.  In coal processing,
   the optimum particle size for froth flotation is approximately 48
   mesh.  The cleaning process involves the agitation of raw fine coal
   with a suitable amount of water and a small quantity of reagents.
   The reagents selectively form a water-repellent coating on the coal
   particles, so that they adhere to the air bubbles and float to the
   surface, where they are easily removed.  While froth flotation of
   coal has experienced a steady growth since 1900 (accounting for
   3.5% of all U.S. wet-cleaned coal in 1970), its application has been
   limited to production of very high quality metallurgical coals.
   However, it also has potential for removing pyritic sulfur from
   finely ground coal, and its use for this purpose can be expected to
   increase.

          We estimate that about 80% of the wet coal cleaning plants
recycle a major portion of their process water and therefore we expect
a minimal impact of new water pollution control regulations on these
plants.  These plants produce large quantity of solids wastes and
would be vulnerable to stringent regulations in that area.

     b.  Reserves

          The characteristics of the coal resources in the United States
                                 A 19
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Inc

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are well known.  All types of coal occur in a wide variety of seam
thicknesses, dips, and formations, and it is generally conceded that
there are enough exploitable supplies to meet the nation's needs for
the foreseeable future.

          Deposits occur in 35 states, but 23 of these account for most
of the production.  The locations of the coal fields are shown in
Figure A-6.  The latest reserve estimates are shown in Table A-5, and
brief comments about the deposits in each of the major states follow.

          (1) Alabama.  Four major coal fields, covering 8000 square
miles - Coosa, Cahaba, Plateau, and Warrior Fields.  Present production
mostly from Warrior Field.

          •  Coosa Field - Coal medium- to high-volatile bituminous,
             ash content 4-14%, 13,000-14,500 Btu/lb, sulfur 0.8-4.1%.
             Four beds 14 inches-12 feet thick.  Some steep dips.

          •  Cahaba Field - Coal formations horizontal to steep in-
             clines, irregular thickness, and folded and faulted.  Most
             coal high-volatile bituminous, 3-12% ash, sulfur 0.4-2.1%,
             13,200-14,150 Btu/lb.  More than 16 coal beds, 3-11 feet
             thick.

          •  Plateau Field - Eight coal beds, average thickness about
             27 inches.  Medium-volatile bituminous, 8-11% ash, sulfur
             0.7-3.9%, 12,900-15,000 Btu/lb.

          •  Warrior Field - Seven productive coal beds, 1-7 feet thick.
             Medium- to high-volatile bituminous, ash 2.5-15.9%, 12,300-
             14,300 Btu/lb, sulfur 0.7-3.1%.  Gentle basin structure with
             horizontal to slightly dipping beds.

Also, lignite belt 200 miles long and 30 miles wide.  Outcrops up to 12
feet thick; 14% ash and 30% moisture.

          (2) Alaska . Four major coal fields:

          •  Arctic Slope Region - Low-volatile coking coal to sub-
             bituminous and lignite.

          •  Cook Inlet - Sub-bituminous coal up to 40 feet thick,
             dipping 10-14°.

          •  Nenana - Sub-bituminous, producing field.

          •  Mantannska - High-volatile bituminous, 21 beds, 18-22 feet
             thick.
                                 A 20
                                                                 Arthur D Little, In

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          (3) Arizona.  One principal coal field, at Mesa Verde.  High-
volatile bituminous.  A number of seams, some up to 9 feet thick.  Much
of this can be open-pit mined.

          (4) Arkansas.  Three coal seams extending from the Oklahoma
Field.  Seams to 8-1/2 feet thick of low-volatile bituminous and ranging
into semi-anthracite.  3.8-10.2% ash, 12,000-14,600 Btu/lb, sulfur
0.6-3.2%.

          (5) Colorado.  Seven principal coal fields, covering over
20,000 square miles.  Large reserves of bituminous and semi-bituminous
coals and some anthracite.

          •  Green River Region - Most coal is high-volatile bituminous
             coming from seams ranging from 4-1/2 to 23 feet thick.
             Ash 3.7-12.6%, 9,590-12,360 Btu/lb, sulfur 0.4-2.5%.

          •  Uinta Region - This region actually comprises eight differ-
             ent coal fields ranging from sub-bituminous to anthracite.
             Seams range from flat lying to completely tilted, folded,
             and faulted.  Seams 4-1/2 to 22 feet thick.  Some good
             coking coals.

          •  San Juan River Region - Mined seams 5-9 feet thick.  High-
             volatile bituminous rank.

          •  Dakota Sandstone - Most coals here are thin, discontinuous,
             and of poor quality, but thicker volatile bituminous coals
             are available in the Nucla-Naturita area.  They have about
             11.9% ash, 12,000 Btu/lb, sulfur 0.9%.

          •  Raton Mesa Region - Seams of high-volatile bituminous
             2-1/2 to 9 feet thick.  In Trinidad Field, some coking
             coal.

          •  Denver Region - Mostly coals of sub-bituminous rank.  Mined
             at depths of 250-450 feet.  Seams mined range from 7 to
             10-1/2 feet thick.  Ash 4.4-10.1%, 9,060-10,660 Btu/lb,
             sulfur 0.3-0.9%.

          •  Canyon City Field - Seams of high-volatile bituminous
             3.5-8 feet thick.

          (6) Illinois.  About 37,000 square miles of Illinois is
underlain by coal-bearing formations that contain mostly high-volatile
bituminous coals.  Calorific value 11,000 to 14,000 Btu/lb, ash 6-14%,
sulfur 0.5-6%, moisture content 6-18%.  Some coking coal in southern
area.  Coals usually overlain by slate or limestone, commonly two feet
of slate, then thicker limestone.  Ten principal seams 18 inches to
25 feet thick.  No. 6 seam is uniformly 6-7 feet thick and lies at
                                 A 23
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
depths of 650 to 1200 feet in southern Illinois.  Gently dipping.

          (7) Indiana.  Coals are an extension of the large field in
Illinois.  The beds and coal seams here dip to the west and southwest
at about 25 feet per mile.  Nine major coal beds occur 2.5 to 8 feet
thick.  Generally high-volatile bituminous with 6.3-12.2% ash, 10,900-
11,600 Btu/lb, and 1.2-3.3% sulfur.  Roof rock generally shale.

          (8) Iowa.  Coal beds cover 1,300,000 acres in 37 counties of
Iowa.  Of possible interest are three groups of coal beds:

          •  Wabansee Group - One principal bed 14-18 inches thick in
             southwest.

          •  Marniaton Group - One principal bed about 2-1/2 feet thick.

          •  Cherokee Group - Eleven coal beds of some interest.  Often
             lenticular with individual lenses 5 feet thick.  Other beds
             32 to 66 inches thick.  Mostly utility coal.

          (9) Kansas.  Bituminous coal bearing rocks cover 18,500 square
miles in eastern part of the state.  There are at least 32 coal beds in
Kansas, of which 12 are of some importance.  All coal is high-volatile
bituninous and averages 15,500-13,300 Btu/lb.  Seams are 12-60 inches
thick.  In northeastern Kansas, coal seam depths range from 660 to 1200
feet.  North central Kansas also has a lignite area in a bed 12 to 36
inches thick.

          (10) Kentucky.  Kentucky has two distinctly separate coal
mining regions, the Western and Eastern Regions.  The Eastern Region
is part of the Appalachian Region which includes Pennsylvania, Ohio,
Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, and Alabama.  The
Western Region is part of the Eastern Interior Basin x^hich includes
Illinois and Indiana.

          Eastern Kentucky coals are generally high-volatile bituminous,
good for coking coals, with less than 10% ash and 3% sulfur.  Eastern
Kentucky has about 12 major coal seams 22-99 inches thick.  The
average thickness mined is probably 36-44 inches.  Btu values range
from 12,500 to 14,000.

          Western Kentucky coals are also high-volatile bituminous but
generally are higher in ash and sulfur content than the Eastern Region
coals.  Seven major beds varying from 3 to 8 feet thick are known
in this region.

          (11) Maryland.  Coal fields in Maryland cover 455 square
miles in the northwest corner of the state.  There are five major
fields, with 8 major seams ranging from 3 to 14 inches thick and
bituminous in rank.  Ash content is 5.3-15.5%, sulfur 0.6-4.2%, and Btu
                                  A 24
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Ir

-------
value ranges from 12,500 to 14,500.

          (12) Missouri.  Coal beds underlie 23,000 square miles.  The
beds dip generally in a northwest direction.  Much of the coal in the
area is generally thin.  Mining has been confined to near the out-
cropping areas.

          The state has been divided into five coal districts, and
some nine major beds have been identified.  The mined beds are 22 to 57
inches thick.  The coals contain 6-16% ash, 2.2-6.9% sulfur, and heating
values of 10,500-13,000 Btu/lb.

          (13) Montana.  Montana has large reserves of sub-bituminous
and lignite coals, ranging in thickness from 4 to 80 feet, with
3.9-9.6% ash, 0.5-12% sulfur, and 5600-9500 Btu/lb heating values.
Strip mining is used in the eastern part of the state, but west to Fort
Union most of the coals will require underground mining.

          (14) New Mexico.  New Mexico has both bituminous and sub-
bituminous coals in beds 2 to 20 feet thick.  Coals have 3.0-12.5%
ash, 0.4-1.6% sulfur, and 9500-13,500 Btu/lb.  In the principal field
(San Juan Basin) the coal crops out as a narrow belt around the margin
and dips under thick cover toward the center.  In the other field
(Raton) the coal beds are horizontal or gently dipping westward, and
are from 3 to 13 feet thick.

          (15) North Dakota.  The western part of the state contains
about two-thirds of the total U.S. lignite reserve.  It covers about
28,000 square miles.  Over 100 beds have been identified, ranging
from 4 to 24 feet in thickness.  The lignite beds are practically
horizontal and are covered generally with a layer of impervious clay.
Average analyses show 5.6% ash and 0.3% sulfur, 700 Btu/lb, 36.2%
moisture, and 31.2% fixed carbon.

          (16) Ohio.  Coal beds occur under 12,340 square miles of
eastern Ohio.  Some 54 coal beds are known, but only 24 are thick enough
to consider as containing potential reserves.  These range from 28 to
60 inches in thickness.

          The coals are high-volatile bituminous fuel coals with 6-9%
ash, 1.5-3.7% sulfur, and 12,000-13,000 Btu/lb heating value.

          (17) Oklahoma.  Some 20,000 square miles of Oklahoma are
underlain by coal-bearing formations.  Most coals are bituminous in
rank.  There are at least seven important seams, ranging in thickness
from 24 to 72 inches.  In one area (Lightning Creek) a 12-15 inch coal
seam is strip mined by removing the limestone above it.  A typical
analysis shows 8% ash, 0.9% sulfur, and 13,500 Btu/lb.

          (18) Pennsylvania.  Coal beds underlie 33% of the state and
                                 A 25
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
are part of the Appalachian coal basin.  Some 52 coal seams are known
and named in eight fields.  Coals range in rank from high-volatile
bituminous to anthracite (in the east).  Heating values range from
14,700 to 15,800 Btu/lb.  Moisture contents range from 0.5 to 12%,
sulfur 1-3%, and ash 4-15%.  Most of these coals of bituminous rank
coke to some degree.

          In the main western bituminous areas, the beds dip generally
less than 2° and rarely more than 8°.  In general, folding and faulting
are not serious.  In one isolated field (Broadtop), dips frequently up
to 30° are encountered.  These bituminous seams are 16-72 inches thick.

          Anthractie in eastern Pennsylvania consists of four fields.
Much folding and faulting has occurred, and dips of 60° are not un-
common.  The seams vary from 3-12 to 21 feet in thickness and commonly
contain partings of several feet.

          (19) Tennessee.  Tennessee coals are a part of the
Appalachian region and underlie some 5000 square miles in a belt
passing though the central part of the state.  The coals are bituminous
in rank and have been divided into nine major districts.  Some 11 seams
are of importance, and these vary from 15 to 72 inches in thickness.
Roof rocks are generally shales, sandstones, and slates.

          These coals have 2-14% ash, 0.4-5.8% sulfur, and 12,000-
14,300 Btu/lb heating value.  In some areas the Sewaull seam produces a
coking-grade coal.

          (20) Texas.  Texas contains lignite, bituminous, and sub-
bituminous coals over an area of 75,000 square miles.  All current
production is from lignites having about 12% ash, 1.0% sulfur, and a
7800 Btu/lb heating value.

          (21) Utah.  Coal fields cover an area of 15,000 square miles
in Utah, divided into 11 principal fields.  The coals are of
bituminous rank, and in one area (Salima and Huntington Canyon) they
contain up to 15% resin.  Much of the coal is of coking quality.
Typical analyses show 5.4 to 6.3% ash, 0.5 to 1.2% sulfur, and 10,700
to 13,200 Btu/lb heating value.

          Eight major coal seams are known, ranging from 4 to 30 feet
thick.  A variety of dips and conditions occur in the seams.  For
example, the Sunnyside seams are only slightly dipping, and the roof
consists of shales or sandstones; the Castle Gate seams dip 12° to
the north and have good roof and floor conditions; and the Hiawatha
seam is 8-15 feet thick, dips slightly, and is covered by a massive
sandstone overburden that is 40-150 feet thick.

          (22) Virginia.  Virginia coal fields are widely scattered and
are commonly grouped in three major divisions.  In southwest Virginia,
                                 A 26
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Ir

-------
high- and low-volatile bituminous coals occur; these fields are part of
the Appalachian Region.  The other areas are known as the Valley Fields
and the Richmond Basin.

          Some 27 seams have been described, with thicknesses varying
from 1.3 to 8 feet.  The coals have 0.7 to 3.7% sulfur, 3 to 10% ash,
and 13,000 to 15,000 Btu/lb heating values.  Most of the beds are gently
dipping.

          (23) Washington.  Most of the coal reserves in Washington
occur in a discontinuous belt along the western edge of the Cascade
Range.  Formations in all areas are folded and faulted, and dips of 90°
are often encountered in the seams.  Most of the coals are high-
volatile bituminous with about 11% ash, 0.7% sulfur, and 14,000 Btu/lb
heating value.

          In the Roslyn Field in Kittitas County, beds dip up to 40° and
have thicknesses of 15 to 19 feet.  In the Centralia area there is a
seam 15 to 20 feet thick with a 15° dip.  This seam has the composition
indicated above.

          (24) West Virginia.  West Virginia is situated in the central
part of the Appalachian Region, and coal occurs in 53 countries in the
state.  Some 62 of the known coal seams contain minable reserves.  Most
of this coal is high-volatile bituminous, and the seams are 2 to 20 feet
thick.  Typical analyses show 0.6 to 4.8% sulfur, 7 to 17% ash, and
12,500 to 15,000 Btu/lb heating value.  Beds are commonly horizontal or
slightly dipping.

          (25) Wyoming.  Vast coal deposits occur over 40,000 square
miles of Wyoming.  Coals rank from lignite to high-volatile bituminous.
There are over 40 fields, of which eight are of major interest and
importance.   In the Powder River Basin the Roland bed has a maximum
thickness of 106 feet, and in many of the fields beds range from 7 to
118 feet thick.  Also in the Powder River Basin near Lake De Smet,
strippable coal beds over 200 feet thick are being developed.  In
general, roof rocks are shales, but some sandstones are also encountered.

          Analyses of typical coals show 1-9% ash, 0.3-1.4% sulfur, and
7400-13,400 Btu/lb heating value.

          The Wyoming coals occur in broad synclinal basins.  Around
the edges of these basins the coal-bearing strata may dip steeply as
the result of later uplift of the surrounding mountains, but in the
central basins the seams are virtually flat-lying.

     c.  Location of Mines

          The coal mining industry of the United States may be divided
into three distinct regions - the Appalachian, the Central, and the
                                  A 27
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Inc

-------
Mountain and Pacific (or Western consisting of the bituminous and
semi-biturainous coals of the Intermountain Region and the lignites of
the Northern Great Plains).  Table A-5 (and Figure A-5) shows the
distribution of bituminous coal and lignite mines by state, size of
output, and type of mining used in each of these regions.

          The Appalachian Region comprises the coal fields of Maryland,
Virginia, and West Virginia (grouped into the South Atlantic sub-
district), Kentucky, Tennessee, and Alabama (forming the East-South
Central subdistrict), and the Mid-Atlantic subdistrict consisting of the
Pennsylvania coal deposits.

          The Central Coal Region is composed of mines in Ohio,
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, North Dakota, Missouri, Arkansas,
and Oklahoma.

          The coal producing states in the Mountain and Pacific Region are
Montana, New Mexico, Wyoming, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Washington, and
Alaska.

     d.  Coal ?Iinirig Companies

          Table A-7 lists the 40 largest U.S. coal companies and their
respective production tonnages in 1970 and 1971.  We have also indicated,
wherever possible, the ownership of a given company and whether or not
it is publicly quoted on the major stock exchanges.  Relatively few are
publicly held; most of the large companies have been acquired by multi-
product corporations, while others have actively diversified.
Pittston Company, the fourth largest, is probably typical in this re-
spect, since only about 44% of its revenue comes from coal sales.

          The bulk of the coal mining companies are small, independent
operators or family-owned mines, that are only involved in coal
mining.  These companies, though numerous, account for a smaller
proportion of the total coal production than the large companies.  Over
the last several years, these smaller companies have succumbed to
economic pressures fron a variety of sources, and the trend towards
greater concentration in the industry is expected to continue.  Despite
this, the coal mining industry is not particularly concentrated in
comparison with industries such as the primary ferrous and non-ferrous
industries.

     e.  Types of Mines

          Table A-6 showed that 55% of the 5032 mines in the Appalachian
Region are underground operations and account for 66.5% of the total
regional production of 415 million short tons.  Over 1700 strip mines
and 513 auger nines in the regionpproduce 29" and 4.5% of its coal
output respectively.  Relative to the total U.S. coal production,
Appalachia accounted for about 69%.
                                                                 Arthur D Little, I

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                                   A 33
                                                                        Arthur D Little, Inc

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          While nearly 85% of  the Appalachian mines produce less than
100,000  tons each per year, this group accounts for only 22.5% of the
tonnage  output.  In  fact, 1763 mines, each of which produces less than
10,000 tons per year, contribute only 2% of the annual coal production
of  this  region.  This emphasizes the relatively small size of many of
the coal mines, as well as the dominating effect, in terms of tonnage
output,  of the mines that produce over 500,000 tons per year (3.7% of
the total number of  mines and  38.4% of the production).  In contrast
to  the Appalachian Region, a high proportion of the mines in the
Central  Region are strip operations:  72% versus 34.5% in Appalachia.
Accordingly, 65.5% of the coal production is accounted for by strip
mines, whereas the corresponding figure in the Appalachian Region is
29%.  These comparisons are shown in Table A-8.  The Central Region is
the source of 26% of the total U.S. bituminous coal output.

          The coals  of the Mountain and Pacific Region are of varying
purity,  with Colorado and Utah furnishing most of the metallurgical
coals consumed.  The entire region accounts for less than 5% of the
total U.S. production of bituminous coal and lignite.

          There is no auger mining in the Mountain-Pacific Region;
strip mining is the  preferred  technique, with 67% of the facilities
employing this method.  Over 80% of the coal production comes from 10%
of  the mines, each of which produces in excess of 500,000 tons per year.
Twenty-seven percent of the establishments produce less than 10,000 tons
each per year and cumulatively generate only 3.0% of the total regional
coal tonnage.

     f.  Mine Employment

          The latest year for  which complete coal industry statistics
are available is 1967.  Although the absolute figures on industry  employ-
ment may be expected to have changed since that time, we believe the change
has been less than 10% and that the data therefore furnish a reliable
representation of industry patterns and trends in 1971.

          Figure A-7 depicts the 1967 distribution of mine sizes in
terms of the number  of employees per mine.  An overwhelming number of
the operating mines  employed less than 100 workers each; in fact,
approximately 2400 of the 5873 active mines employed less than ten
each.  This graph also shows the number of employees in each mine size as
a percentage of the  total industry employment.  Clearly, the operations
that employ less than ten men  account for small proportion of the
workers  in the industry.  On the other hand, the fewer mines with
over 50  men employ a high proportion of the total working force.

          The distribution of  the 5,873 mines, by mining method and
mine size, is shown  in Figure  A-8.  The near-coincidence of the
underground mint  and the total mine curves underscores the dominance of
underground mining in the coal industry in terms of  the number of mines.
                                  A34

                                                                 Arthur D Little, Ir

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                                    TABLE A-8
             MINING AND PRODUCTION PATTERNS IN U.S. COAL DISTRICTS
Region
Appalachian
Central
Mountain-
Pacific
% of Total
U.S.
Production
68.9
26.2
4.9
% of Output By
Mining Method
Underground Strip Auger
66.5 29.0 4.5
33.6 65.5 <1%
32.9 67.1 0.0

<1 0,000
tpy
2.1
(35.0)a
0.3
(23.9)
0.3
(27.0)
% of Output
Mine Size
<1 00,000
tpy
22.5
(84.7)
5.6
(64.0)
3.7
(60.0)
By
>500,000
tpy
38.3
(3.7)
84.7
(21.5)
80.9
(19.0)
Percentage of the total number of mines in this size range are enclosed in parentheses.
Source:   Table  A-6
                                    A 35
                                                                          Arthur D Little, Inc

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                           A  36
                                                                             Arthur D Little I

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                                               X Underground
                                               O Strip
                                               D Auger
                                               • Total
       1-19
                                 20-99

                        Size of Mine (by Employment)

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, 1967 Census of Mineral Industries
100-Over
FIGURE A-8 DISTRIBUTION OF COAL INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT
           BY MINING METHOD AND MINE SIZE
                        A37
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Inc

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           The histogram of Figure A-9 shows the historical employment
 pattern in the coal industry by mining method.   In the 25-year span from
 1945 to 1970, employment in the industry dropped from about 383,000 to
 about 140,000 due mainly to increased mechanization and the closing
 of facilities that were unprofitable of unable  to meet more stringent
 safety and pollution control.  While the number of men in underground
 mines has decreased progressively since 1955,  the number in strip
 mines has held fairly constant, in spite of the fact that the number of
 strip mines has increased since then.  Employment statistics on auger
 mines have been available since 1955; both the  number of such mines
 and the work force employed by them have shown  a slow and steady
 increase.

      g.  Trends in Coal Mining and Washing

           Recent trends in coal mining and beneficiation have been
 instigated largely by the desire on the part of producers to supply
 high-quality coals to consumers at prices that  are competitive with
.alternative fuels.  These requirements make it  imperative that coal
 producers engage in careful planning and astute operational management
 at all stages of the coal production process.

           Table A-9 shows the recent trends in  mining methods.  It is
 apparent that the percentage of the total production from under-
 ground mines has been declining, whereas strip  and auger mining have
 registered corresponding increases.  Longwall mining appears to be
 firmly established and will be adopted by a growing number of mines.

           To further enhance the economics of strip mining, the trend
 is toward larger machinery capable of stripping to depths of over
 200 feet.  In the not very distant future, draglines of up to 300-
 cubic-yard capacity could become commonplace at mine sites.  Similarly
 impressive advances are being made in drilling  and blasting practices.

           The mechanization of mining, loading, and conveying is
 increasing rapidly.  The degree of mechanical loading underground,
 for example, has risen from 36% of underground  production in 1940 to
 97% in 1970.  Similarly, strip mining has undergone great advances in
 mechanization, and this trend is expected to continue.

           Another area that stands to receive substantial attention in
 the future concerns the application of automatic control of mine
 face equipment.  The impetus for this trend comes not only from the
 improved face performance expected, but also from the need to move
 the coal miner back from the face area, where most underground
 accidents occur.

           In coal preparation, the essential design features of the
 major gravity separation units are x:ell established.  There is, however,
 a continuing effort to modify them to effect better separation
                                  A38
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Ir

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        A 39
                                               Arthur D Little, Inc

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                                TABLE A-9
           BITUMINOUS COAL AND LIGNITE PRODUCTION BY MINING
                     METHODS IN THE U.S. 1967-71
                                         Millions of Net Tons
Underground Mining
  Percentage of Total

Strip Mining
  Percentage of Total

Auger Mining
  Percentage of Total
                                  1967
187.1
 33.9

 16.4
  3.0
         1968
349.1   344.1
 63.1    63.1
185.8
 34.1

 15.3
  2.8
         1969
 16.4
  2.9
         1970
        347.1   338.8
         62.0    56.2
20.0
 3.3
        1971
       302.4
        54.0
197.0   244.1   238.6
 35.1    40.5    42.6
19.6
 3.3
Total
552.6   545.2   561.0   602.9   560.0
  Estimates
Source;   Coal Age, February 1972
                                A 40
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Ir

-------
of  coal from sulfurous  impurities.  Both physical and chemical tech-
niques are being  evaluated  for achieving this objective.  The gravity-
and density-based processes for pyrite removal evaluated thus far
appear promising, but they  suffer from the economic handicap that the
clean coal yield  decreases  with the extent of desulfurization.  The
chemical processes  for  organic sulfur removal, which generally
include a solvent-extraction step, have been tested primarily on a
laboratory scale  and are  still a long way from commercial use.

          Table A-10 shows the historical trend in the number of
cleaning plants in  the  various coal-producing states.  In virtually
every state, the  number has been decreasing progressively since 1966.
This does not necessarily imply a de-emphasis of coal cleaning by the
industry; rather, it reflects the decrease in the number of mines and
the consolidation of cleaning plants.

          Despite improvements in transportation methods and the
attendant decrease  in freight rates, shipping rates for coal are still
high relative to  those  of competing energy sources.  Accordingly,
pipeline transportation of  slurried coal is receiving careful con-
sideration from the power-generating industry.  Another recent trend
among power generators  is to install the power plants at the coal mine
and transmit the  energy at extra-high voltages  from there  to load
centers.  Between 1965  and  1971, about 25 coal-fired electric generating
units located at  mine sites were brought on-stream, and this trend is
expected to continue.
           The  output per man-day  at a  coal mine is not a foolproof
measure of productivity, since  it fails to compensate for the physical
characteristics of  the  coal bed and the degree of mining mechanization,
among other variables;  nevertheless, it is a working indicator of
trends within  the industry and  provides a basis for comparing per-
formance  at various locations.  To convey the proper perspective,
Table A-10 lists productivities in terms of output per man-day for the
three major mining  methods in the United States from 1945 to 1970, and
for underground coal mines in several  European countries.  The data  for
U. S. underground and strip mines are plotted in Figure A-10, along with
our projections of  the  respective productivities through 1980.

          For all mining methods, productivity has been inching generally
upward.  Compared with  those in European countries, as shown in Table A-ll,
U. S. mines are immensely productive; however, one must interpret the fig-
ures for Europe in  the  light of the mining conditions there.

2.  Financial Structure and Trends

     a.  Prices

          Coal pricing  is a complex subject and can be visualized as
                                A 41

                                                                 Arthur D Little, Inc

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                                                                                               Arthur D Little I

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                 A  U.S. Average Strip Mines

                 O  U.S. Average - Underground
     1945
             1950
1955
1960
1965
                                                               1970
                                                                       1975
                                                          1980
      Source:  1945 - 1970  U.S. Bureau of Mines

              1971 - 1980  Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
                 FIGURE A-10 PRODUCTIVITY OF U.S. BITUMINOUS COAL MINES
                                            A 43
                                                                                     Arthur D Little, Inc

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                                 Arthur D Little, Inc

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involving three major commodities - metallurgical coal, low-sulfur coal,
and high-sulfur coal.  Since sulfur is considered an impurity in coal, a
sulfur penalty is levied.  At the present time, this is equivalent to
about $0.75 per ton per percentage point of sulfur in excess of about
2.0% in the spot market.  This penalty is expected to escalate as sulfur
specifications for steam coal decrease.  Another price-determining fac-
tor is whether the coal is washed or unwashed.  The price of washed
versus unwashed coal varies by as much as $0.05 per ton for each 100
Btu increase in energy content obtained by washing.

          In addition to the above factors, coal pricing is also a func-
tion of the size and organization of the producing firm - large and/or
captive, large and independent, or small and independent.

          Contract sales generally involve fixed prices and built in
escalation changes for the large producers,  while the independent pro-
ducers sell coal mainly in the open spot market.  Thus, the spot market
is dominated by small independent producers who market coal through
brokers who charge a commission rate of 20 to 30 cents per ton.
Typically, the small producer can do no better than to accept the
brokers stipulated price which, in turn, is set in a region by the
large producers and consumers.  Figure A-ll depicts the spot price trend
from 1965 to 1972 for metallurgical and steam coals.  Spot prices change
continuously in response to short-term supply-demand imbalances which
are affected by factors such as the implementation of new coal-mining
labor contracts and sags in steel demand by such consumers as the auto-
motive and construction industries.  Generally, the trend in the spot
price of coal since 1965 has been upward.  In contrast to the spot
market, prices in contract sales are less erratic because of the long-
term character of the contracts.

     b.  Sales

          This discussion has been covered in Section A.4.

     c.  Costs

          The principal components of the cost of coal production are
the capital costs and the operating costs.  Typical capital costs for
an underground mine are shown in Table A-12.  Underground equipment
constitutes the largest cost item, absorbing about 55% of the total
expenditure.  Elements of production cost are given in Table A-13,
with production costs amounting to $5.07 per ton (including
amortization).

          The estimated production costs for a small Northern Appalachian
strip mine are given in Table A-14, and they range from $4.05 to $5.15
per ton.

          Of particular interest to an economic impact study would be a
cost function for mines in different size categories i.e. how
                                 A45                             Arthur D Little, Inc

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 9.50

 9.00

 8.50

 8.00

 7.50

 7.00


 6.50

 6.00

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                                                             DMW Wage Increase
           II
           I!
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Metallurgical Low and
Medium Volatile	
                          Metallurgical High Volatile
                          (Comparable to Lowi	
                          Sulfur Steam Coal) J
                                           Screenings, Industrial Use
                                           (Comparable to High Sulfur
                                           Steam Coal)
          I   I  I
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       Jan.      Jan.      Jan.      Jan.     Jan.      Jan.      Jan.      Jan.      Jan.
           1965     1966     1967     1968     1969      1970    1971      1972

        Source:  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
     FIGURE A-11 SPOT PRICE TRENDS - U.S. BITUMINOUS COAL F.O.B. MINE 1965-1972
                                 A 46
                                                                            Arthur D Little, Inc

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                              TABLE A-12
             ESTIMATED CAPITAL COSTS FOR A TWO MILLION TON
                    PER YEAR UNDERGROUND COAL MINE
                        Estimated Capital Costs
Underground equipment                                      $ 7,000,000

Slope and slope belt                                         1,118,000

Air shafts                                                     476,000

Man-elevator                                                   110,000

Fan                                                             40,000

Preparation plant                                            2,250,000

Unit train facilities                                          5000,000

Engineering                                                    100,000

Prospecting                                                    110,000

                                                           $11,704,000

All other surface facilities:

     $11,704,000 * 95 minus $11,704,000 =                      616,000
                                                           $12,320,000

Underground development                                        400,000
Total Estimated Capital Costs                              $12,720,000

     This is an average cost of $6.36 per annual ton of production


Source:  N. Robinson - "Third AGA Pipeline Gas Symposium", 1970
                                A 47
                                                                 Arthur D Little; Inc.

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                              TABLE A-13
         ESTIMATED COST OF PRODUCTION FROM AN UNDERGROUND MINE

   (1.9 million tons of clean coal/2.4 million tons raw coal per yr)
         8,000 Tons clean coal -5- 231 men = 34.6 tons per man

                                                           Per Ton
Labor                                                       $1.36

Supplies                                                     1.25

Power                                                        0.12

Welfare                                                      0.40*

Royalty                                                      0.15

New mine, health and safety law                              1.00

Depreciation                                                 0.50

Taxes                                                        0.03

Gross sales tax                                              0.06

Insurance                                                    0.03

Operators association dues, miscellaneous                    0.02

Administration                                               0.12

Sales                                                        0.03**
Total estimated cost of production                          $5.07


 *Will be 0.80
**Sold under long-term contract


Source:  N. Robinson, "Third AGA Pipeline Gas Symposium", 1970.
                                 A 48
                                                                 Arthur D Little

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                     TABLE A-14
    TYPICAL AVERAGE COSTS FOR A SMALL STRIP MINE3
               IN NORTHERN APPALACHIA
Royalties

                  9
Overburden removal
  @ 12-15c/yd3

Loading

Backfilling

  Direct Cost

Brokerage and commissions

Profit
         $/Ton

        0.30-0.50
(can be as high as 0.80)

        2.50-3.00
        0.25-0.35

          0.50



        0.20-0.30

        0.30-0.50
 non-union mine; typically,   costs are much lower at the
 beginning of a stripping operation and higher toward the
 end.
 includes capital charges on mining equipment and cost of
 explosives  and labor.
Source:  ADL estimates.
                        A 49
                                                        Arthur D Little Inc

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operating costs change with varying production.

          In an analysis of a specific small strip mine in S. Ohio,
Dreese* was able to derive a theoretically appealing downward sloping
cost function (indicating lower operating costs per ton at higher
production rates) with the curve rising again at very high production
levels.  Analysis of Dreese's data indicate that 'low-cost at high
production1 occured when the company was fortuitously operating a
thick shallow seam at a time when the demand was adequate.  Thus this
theoretically appealing curve says nothing about whether that mine
could deliberately increase production in the short term and reap
the advantages in decreased operating cost per ton, thus being able
to absorb increased costs resulting from pollution abatement.
Furthermore, after considering a major production increase as a Long-term
option, Dreese states "It is questionable whether the economics of
large scale would offset the higher costs, and whether the additional
competition for customers would be possible in a market with several
large producers with years of experience and large amounts of capital."

          We believe that there are a bexd.ldering variety of variables
that contribute to the overall costs of production at each nine and
even knowing the cost function of a mine in one segment contributes
little to knowing the cost function at any other mine in that segment.

     d.  Profits

          Table A-15 lists the coal reserves and production statistics,
as well as recent sales and income data for the major coal-producing
firms.

          Table A-16 lists the price-to-earnings ratios for selected
companies as of early April 1972.  These values, v/hich range from
11.8 to about 27, may be higher than normal, because the coal strike
in 1971 depressed the earnings of most companies.

3.  Industry Capacity and Productivity

          In terms of the cumulative energy reserves, coal constitutes
the most plentiful fuel in the United States and accounts for almost
90% of the known reserves, including uranium.  It is estimated that
390 billion tons of coal reserves are commercially exploitable under
present economic conditions, and with existing mining technology.
Sizeable as this quanitty is, it is nevertheless a small fraction of
the estimated 1.6 trillion tons of total mapped and explored coal
reserves.
*Dreese & Bryant, "Costs and Effects of a Water Quality Program for a
Small Strip Mining Company" OTIS Springfield, Va.  (1971) IUR Report
71-7.
                                 A 50
                                                                 Arthur D Little, I

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                                      TABLE A-15
    COAL AND INCOME STATISTICS FOR MAJOR U.S. COAL-PRODUCING FIRMS
Company
t   CM. ftasarvas—-N/-—Coal Production—vgoa| s«l*s Salas Total
   Total     Low      1971     % Cnanca  1971     1971
(Billion Tons) Sulphur (Million Tons)  1970-72* (Millions) (Millions)
Nat Incoma 5 jr. An.
   1971     Matiirn
 (Millions)  on Equity
Burlington Northern
Union Pacific
Kenneeott Copper
(PeabodyCoal)
Continental Oil
(Consolidation Coal)
Exxon (Monterey Coal)
American Metal Climax
(AmaxCoal)
Occidental Petroleum
(Island Creek Coal)
United States Steel
Gulf Oil
(Pitts, ft Midway Coal)
North American Coal
Reynolds Metals
Bethlehem Steel
Pacific Power* Light
American Electric Pwr.
Eastern fias ft Fuel Assoc.
(Eastern Assoc. Coal)
Kerr-McGee
Norfolk ft Western RR
Utah International
Westmoreland. Coal
Prttston Co.
Montana Power
(Western Energy)
Standard Oil of Ohio
(Old Ben Coal)
Ziegler Coal
General Dynamics
Freeman/United Elec.
Rochester ft Pitts. Coal
Carbon Fuel
Amer. Smelting ft Refin.
(Midland Coal)
11.0
10.0
8.7
8.1
7.0
4.0
3.3
3.0
2.6
2.5
2.1
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1+
1
.8
.8
.6
.3
.1
.1
100%
50+
27
35
NA
50
28
NA
8
80
95
NA
100
minimal
33
60
99
94
88
100
100
minimal
0
0
0
97
0
none
none
54.8
54.8
1.2
12.5
22.8
16.6
7.0
8.8
none
12
1.7
5.5
11.7
minimal
none
6.81
8.4
20.1
5.1
10.5
4.0
11.5
4.3
2.6
4
none
none
5.7
6.0
12.8
-24.3
NA
3.6
31.8
none
6.3
29.4
27.8
none
none
27.2
-21.7
NA
607.4
NA
-15.5
-24.2
15.2
-1.4
NA
none
none
J268.8
360.3
NA
NA
247.2
NA
33.5
63.6
none
none
none
none
150.0
none
NA
144.8
255.6
NA
66.3
25.3
N.A.
43.4
24.3
NA
$ 1,028.8
977.2
1,053.4
3,051.1
18,700.6
756.9
2,635.2
4,928.0
5,940.0
63.6
1,093.3
2,963.6
178.4
748.2
291.4
603.3
1,054.1
104.4
144.8
581.0
88.2
1,393.8
25.3
1,868.8
43.4
24.3
656.8
$ 38.7
90.7
87.2
140.1
1,516.6
55.4
d48
154.5
561.0
1.3
5.9
139.2
38.6
135.0
16.8
40.7
76.8
34.2
4.4
35.3
20.0
58.8
1.1
20.6
.8
2.8
46.0
2.2%
5.4
11.9
10.8
13.4
13.9
17.3
5.5
12.5
6.6
6.4
7.2
9.7
13.0
13.0
11.9
6.3
20.4
9.0
17.0
17.7
10.9
8.3
6.8
4.3
14.2
13.5
• Comparison of first six months of 1972.  d-D«ficit. N.A.-No! available.


 Source: Forbes, November 15,1972
                                          A 51
                                                                                      Arthur D Little Inc

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                            TABLE A-16
                    PRICE EARNING RATIOS FOR A
        SELECTION OF PUBLICLY-QUOTED COAL COMPANY STOCKS
Rank
4
8
11
12
14
26

Company
Pittston Co.
Eastern Gas & Fuel Associates
North American Coal Corp.
Westmoreland Coal Co.
Utah International Inc.
Carbon Fuel Co.
Average
Coal Revenue
as Percent
of Total
44
52
~ 100
~ 100
~ 20
86

Fiscal 1971
Earnings
per Share
2.67
1.65
0.76
1.30
2.50
1.25a

Market
Price
4/4/71
37.5
31
19
27.5
67
14.75

P/E
14
18.7
25
21.2
26.8
11.8
19.5
Initial offering 3/16/72 at $17.50/share for a P/E of 14.
                              A 52
                                                            Arthur D Little, I

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          National industry data are shown in Figure A-12, using mine
tonnage output as a criterion of size.  The approximately two hundred
mines that produce less than 50,000 tons per year account for a small
proportion of the annual output.  Similar data are presented in
Figures A-13 and A-14, specifically for underground mines and strip
mines respectively.  The small mines dominate numerically, but their
contribution is relatively modest in terms of coal production.

4.  Competition from Other Energy Sources

          While coal price and demand can reasonably be expected to
remain strong and competitive for the next decade, it should be
recognized that sharp price increases would force major market segments
to substitute otfier energy sources for coal where the economics so
dictate.  Major competitors in the electrical power Industry are
hydroelectric power, nuclear power, natural gas, and oil.  Hydroelectric
power should not be a serious contender, since most hydroelectric sites
in the United States have already been developed and very little growth
is projected for this energy segment into the 1990s.  Nuclear power
plants are no longer expected to attain the very rapid construction
growth predicted for them until 1980.  As for natural gas, a supply
shortage is predicted in the near future.  Oil is the only source that
threaten   to penetrate the coal market in the electrical industry.
Already it has gained a substantial foothold on the East Coast and is
penetrating the Great Lakes metropolitan areas.  While the price of
low-sulfur oil exceeds that of coal in the inland eastern United States,
the pressure of pollution control codes, the unreliability of current
sulfur dioxide control technologies, and the limited availability of
low-sulfur coal are forcing current conversions to low-sulfur oil,
particularly in urban areas.

          In the ferrous metallurgical industry, coal's dominant
posture as a fuel source is threatened by the inception of direct-
reduction processes (for converting ore to high-iron pellets suitable
for blast-furnace feeding) based on natural gas, the increasing
importance of scrap or pellet-consuming electric furnaces as steelmaking
units for both carbon and high-alloy steels, and the future development
of nuclear-energy-based blast furnaces for iron smelting.  Of some
importance also are the improvements in blast-furnace and coking
practices which make it possible to decrease coke consumption per ton
of iron produced, such as the recent development of processes for pro-
ducing form coke from noncoking coal.
          There is an extensive research program in progress on the
conversion of coal to synthetic pipeline gas, synthetic crude oils,
or heavy oils suitable for burning in utility boilers.  The successful
development of this technology is expected to increase the demand for
coal.  However, the projected prices for these coal-derived products are
                                  A 53
                                                                 Arthur D Little, Inc

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                                                  A 54
                                                                                                  Arthur D Little

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                        A  56
                                                                          Arthur D Little, I

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high, so that the competition between imports and domestic products will
continue.

5.  Effects of Federal Government Programs on the Coal Industry

          These effects were discussed earlier on Page A-12.
                                   A57
                                                                Arthur D Little, Inc

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                                     APPENDIX B
     EFFLUENT LIMITATION GUIDELINES PREPARED BY THE EPA OFFICE OF PERMIT PROGRAMS
                                       IN 1972
General
This guidance for the establishment  of effluent limitations for discharges
in the Coal Mining Industrial category sets  forth numerical
limitations based on the application of  'best practicable control  technology
currently available.1  Schedule A values  reflect the Agency's best technical
judgment of the effluent levels which  can be achieved by the application
of the highest level of control technology which is now considered 'practicable'
and 'currently available' for the.industry.   Schedule A values are based on
the totality of experience with the  technology, including demonstration projects,
pilot plants, and actual use, which  demonstrates that it is technologically and
economically reliable.

In every case of (i) new plants installing pollution abatement equipment and
(ii) existing plants now beginning abatement programs, yea should apply
Schedule A values-   In some  cases, economic  and social factors may affect
the practicability of applying control techniques to achieve these values,
and may require some modification of Schedule A values as to particular
plants.  These instances should be kept  to an absolute minimum.  Guidance on the
economic and social factors  which may  require that you consider such
modifications, as well as more detailed  explanation of the engineering
assumptions underlying the Schedule  A  values, will be provided at technical
seminars to be conducted concerning  each industrial category.

Schedule B values represnt the minimum acceptable effluent levels for the Coal
Mining Industry.  No plant should achieve less pollution reduction than
Schedule B values.  Schedule B values  may be applied where a discharger has,
at the time the permit is issued, commenced  and made substantial progress on
an abatement program.
                                        B-l
SOURCE:   EPA
                                                                      Arthur D Little, Inc

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    Rationale - Effluent Limitations for the Coal  Industry

    There are three major categories of effluent associated with the
    production of coal:  coal  preparation waste (coal  washers),
    .underground coal mining waste (underground mine drainage),  and
    Surface mining waste (strip mine drainage).  Because these  three
    wastes are somewhat different and require different treatment,
    the major problem areas are discussed separately.   Also, these
 ..   wastes are often unrelated, or only indirectly related, to
 -   production quantities, therefore, in this text, effluent
    limitations are expressed  in terms of concentration rather   *.-•'*•-
    than units of production.   Due to the wide variation of geological
    and hydro!ogical factors in the coal industry a jpound per day
    limitation is impractical.  The effluent limitations for the
   "coal mining industry were  based on utilization of the geochemical
    approach which encompassed oxidation potential, reaction rates^
    and solubility constants,  as well as pH control." The term
    "underground mine drainage" as used'herein applies not only to
    discharges which have a low pH value but also to discharges with
    a neutral value but which  are high in metallic salts which
    can be a problem in an alkaline environment.

    It should be noted that this rationale was developed as a guideline
    for the coal mining industry only and should not be applied to
    hardrock mining.


A.   Preparation Plant Wastes

    Semi-colloidal particles of coal, shale, and clay in suspension
    form one of the principal  pollutants ~ suspended solids.  Reduction
    in the amount of suspended solids reaching the stream can be
    achieved by installation of settling and impounding facilities.
    Other, methods of control include the use of froth flotation,
    floCculation, filtration,  and mechanically operated sedimentation
    and clarification basins.   Organic coagulants, such as polyacrylamide,
    used alone or in combination with inorganic coagulants may
    demonstrate good settling qualities.

    In addition to the problem of suspended solids, the effluent from
    coal washing may contain iron and sulphur compounds in suspension.
    In high enough concentration.these would cause considerable
    loading on the stream and will require chemical treatment before
    discharge.  The effluent limitations for preparation plant
    wastes, shown in Attachment A, reflect the eventual goal of
    complete recycling.
    SOURCE:  EPA
                                     B-2
                                                                 Arthur D Little,

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B.  Underground Mine Drainage

    Drainage from coal  mines may be acid in character and  may contain
    sulfuric acid, ferrous and ferric iron, aluminum, and  manganese
    in significant concentrations.  Carbon dioxide,  and  calcium,
    magnesium, and sodium salts, all of which contribute to a
    very high degree of hardness, may also be present.  Preventive1
    measures might include reduction of the amount of infiltration
    into the mine, controlled dewatering to reduce contact with
    acid-forming materials, removal of acid forming  materials and
    sealing or flooding of inactive mines, and replacement of
    waste rock.  Treatment methods which might be used to  meet
    the effluent requirements, shown in Attachment B, may
    include neutralization, and removal of iron and  manganese.

    Neutralization

    Neutralization to a pH of 6.0 to 9.0 can be accomplished by the
    use of lime, limestone, oxidation, or varied combinations of
    the three, depending on the characteristics of the waste.  A
    French patent was granted in the nineteen-hundreds for the
    treatment of mine drainage water with lime (Fassin).  This
    process, consisting of lime neutralization and precipitation  of
    metallic salts, was accomplished by adding more  lime as the
    effluent was passed through a series of ponds.

    A number of neutralization processes using limestone have been
    tried. _ The first reported application of limestone in acid
    mine treatment was at the Calumet Mine, Westmoreland County,
    Pennsylvania, In 1916.

    Following this, a patent was granted for a two-step process
    which was first used by Mason and Travers.  Their treatment was
    carried out in tanks, with the addition of powdered limestone to
    br.tng the pH to approximately 5.  Lime was then  added  to the
    mixture to complete neutralization.

    It was found that limestone powder did not react with  ferrous
    .salts, however, this reaction could be produced  by causing
    oxidation either by direct aeration or by the use of chlorine or
    some other oxidant.  A period of 50 minutes was  required to
    oxidize 640 milligrams per liter by aeration of  an acid waste
    to which had been added a fourfold excess of limestone.  The
    ferrous salts are converted to free ferric salts which precipitate
    out.
    SOURCE:  EPA
                               B-3
                                                                Arthur D Little, Inc

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While neutralization with a combination of lime and limestone is
not new (it has been used by the steel industry for treating
pickle liquor for a number of years) its application in the
neutralization of coal mine drainage water is still effective.
The use of a two-step neutralization process, that is,  the use
of limestone £6 bring the pH to 5, with the addition of lime,
to completethe neutralization, could result in a considerable
savings both in the cost of chemicals and in sludge handling.
The sludge resulting from the two-stage precipitation method
has better settling qualities and a higher solids concentration
than sludge from using lime alone.

Iron Removal
At present there are two common methods employed for the removal
of iron from mine drainage.  Both processes are based on
precipitation reaction.  In the first process, precipitation is
carried out through adjusting the pH; this reaction results in
precipitation of iron  oxide.  The second method, precipitation
by chemical addition,  results in the formation of an insoluble
sulfide compound.  This method is by far the more costly of the
two.

At present, the Clinchfield Coal Corporation of Clarksburg,
West Virginia operates a treatment facility for neutralization
and removal of iron from mine pumpage wastes.  On a daily flow
of 600,000 gallons, and through the use of lime treatment and
sedimentation, the pH  is increased from 3.8 to 8.5. This facility
employs a two-pond sludge  settling system with the first pond
reducing iron content  from 240 mg/1 to 9 mg/1, at the same time,
through oxidation and  precipitation, the total iron content is
decreased in the second pond from 9 mg/1 to 0.6 mg/1.  In this
process iron is removed at two different pH levels.  At the first
level, ferric iron will precipitate at a pH of about 3.2 and, at
£he second level, ferrous  iron will precipitate at a pH between
8 and 9.  Lime neutralization, with the oxidation of ferrous
iron to ferric iron,  is carried out between the two levels, at
a pH of about 7.  At  a pH  of 7 to 9, depending on temperature, an
amorphous ferric oxyhydroxide is formed.  This suspension is
light and almost colloidal.  To aid in sedimentation a coagulant
or some form of  polyelectrolyte  could  be used to enhance
clarification in existing  lagooning systems.
 SOURCE: .EPA
                               B-4

                                                            Arthur D Little,

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    Manganese Removal

    Depending on the compound of manganese to be removed,  coagulation
    and precipitation can be carried out to varying degrees.   A
    moderate concentration of manganese can be reduced to  0.6 mg/1
    by utilizing the pH adjustment system previously described.
    Lime is added to raise the pH from 10 to 11, at which  time the
    manganese can be removed with some form of aeration to form
    flocculent settleable material.   The addition  of either sodium
    or barium sulfide will aid in precipitation of a manganese
    sulfide.
C.  Surface Mining

    In 1965 the total U. S. production of coal  from surface mining
    operations was 180 million tons or 35% of the total.   In 1970,
    44% of the coal mined was by surface methods, according to the
    National Coal  Association.  (This includes  a 17.5% increase in
    the total coal mined in the United States).  With this continuing
    increase in surface mine operations, even  greater control and
    implementation of existing technology is needed.

    Attachment C contains the effluent limitations for surface
    mining (strip mining  operations).  To meet  the effluent limitations,
    operators will have to employ one or all of the following methods
    presently being used by many companies:
           *
         1.  Keep as much water as possible out of the operating, site;

         2.  Provide proper drainage removal to a treatment facility;

         3.  Separate contaminated and non-contaminated water; and

         4.  Insure that all water receives proper pH control as
             well as removal of suspended solids and metallic
             materials.

    At present, a number of operations are employing lagooning
    systems.  Evaporation results in a reduction in the suspended
    solids as well as the ferric hydroxide and  the ferric sulfate.
    Precipitation eventually results through the oxidation process.

    One source of acid mine water is the refuse pile or "gob pile"
    which contains sulfurous refuse from the preparation and cleaning
    process.  Control of the gob piles could eliminate a source of
    acid drainage.  The simplest system for control is to cover
    these piles with a non-acid producing material such as two feet
    of dirt.  At a later time, to insure stability, some form of
    vegetation should be planted.  Sealing or benching of the cut
    area so that there are no opportunities for oxidation of the
    pyrite material will eliminate a major part of the problem.
   SOURCE:  EPA



                                  B-5
                                                               Arthur D Little, Inc

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CONSIDERATION OF APPLICATION OF LIMITS TO PREPARATION PLANTS,
UNDERGROUND MINE DRAINAGE, AND SURFACE*MINING OPERATIONS

1.  It shall be considered a violation of the discharge permit if
    the average of the analyses peformed over any thirty-day period
    exceeds the limitations (except for pH) as stated in
    Attachments A, B, and C.

2.  It shall be considered a violation of the discharge permit
    if at any instantaneous measurement the pH of the effluent
    is less than 6.0 or more than 9.0.

3.  It shall also be considered a violation of the permit if any
    composite sample exceeds the limitation shown in the
    Attachments by more than 50%.

4.  It shall be considered a violation of the permit if any
    single grab sample exceeds the limitations by 100%.

5.  Any single violation may be considered sufficient cause
    for revocation of a discharge permit.
NOTE:  Four violations in any 12-month period will require an action
       memorandum from the Regional Administrator or his designee
       to the Assistant Administrator for Enforcement and
      . General Counsel detailing an action program to bring-such
       violations to an end.
 SOURCE:  EPA
                               B-6

                                                              Arthur DLittl

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PREPARATION PLANTS

A.  Recommended  Effluent Limits

    1.  There shall  be no dilution  of the effluent stream.

    2.  Use limits shown in Attachment A, Schedule $ or B, as
        appropriate.

B.  Monitoring

    ^* Minimum Frequency

        A weekly sampling frequency shall be maintained for the
        first twelve weeks with  the exception of pH and flow
        which will always be continuous measurements.  Following
        the first 12 weeks, a monthly sampling schedule may be
        established.

    2.  Sampling and Analysis

        Analyses shall  be performed on composite sairples consisting
        of at least  five grab samples  taken at equally spaced
        intervals over the operating period.  The maximum
        compositing  period for any  composite sample, shall be
        24 hours.
NOTE:  The applicability of  any of  the parameters 3i;sted must be
       at the discretion of  the Regional Administrator or his
       designee.

Monitoring Program  is  shown  in Attachment D.
SOURCE:  EPA
                               JB-7

                                                             Arthur D Little, Inc

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MINE DRAINAGE (Underground)

A.  Recommended Effluent Limits

    1.  The velocity of discharge shall be such that scouring of
        stream bed shall not occur.

    2.  Use limits shown in Attachment B, Schedule A or B, as
        appropriate.

B.  Monitoring

    1.  Minimum Frequency

        A weekly sampling frequency will be maintained during
        the first 12 weeks; thereafter, a monthly schedule may
        be initiated.

        NOTE:  Sampling mine discharges is generally much like
               sampling a reservoir or a small lake.  The
               changes in water quality are slow and generally
               consistent; modification of the sampling program
               should be decided by the Regional Administrator
               or his designee.

        Dischargers shall maintain daily records of duration and
        volume of flow.  These records are necessary because
        many operations have a varying discharge, which is
      •  dependent on the season of the year and- the rate -of
        production.

        NOTE:  The flow can be calculated using pumpage rates
               and duration, providing controls are installed
               to insure continual pump suction.

    2.  Sampling and Analysis

        a.  Analyses shall be performed on composite samples consisting
            of at least five grab samples taken at equally spaced
            intervals over the operating period.  The maximum compositing
            period for any composite sample, shall be 24 hours.

        b.  Program is presented in Attachment E.

NOTE:  pH should be run on each of the grab samples making up
       the composite.

NOTE:  Neutralization - Neutralization is generally required for
       mines located in the eastern United States.  Graph #1
       is included to help to aid in estimating chemical requrements
       and chemical costs.
SOURCE:   EPA
                                                              Arthur D Little, I
                               B-8

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B.  Monitoring
       ^* Minimum Frequency

           The monitoring program is shown in Attachment F.

           NOTE:  Suspended matter in parts per million may in some
                  instances be estimated by multiplying turbidity in
                  jackson turbidity units by 2.2.
                                                                 *
       2.  Sampling and Analysis

           Daily sampling and analysis for turbidity and pH should be
           carried out for the first three weeks when a discharge is
           occuring.  Following the first three week period, a
           frequency of twice a week may be initiated for sampling
            and analysis.

           The additional parameters shall be sampled weekly; analysis
           may be performed on grab samples for the first three weeks.
           Thereafter, a monthly schedule, sampling annually may be
           maintained.  The monthly analysis shall be performed on
          .composite sample consisting of at least five grab samples
           taken at equal intervals over an operating period.

           The compositing period shall not exceed 24 hours, for
           any one sample.
 SOURCE:  EPA
                                  B"9      .                   Arthur D Little, Inc

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o
         SOURCE:   EPA
                                                   B-10
                                                                                 Arthur D Little, In

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SURFACE MINING OPERATIONS

A.  Recommended Effluent Limits

    1.  All treatment facilities shall  be of sufficient size to handle
        the run-off resulting from a once-in-ten-years1  storm.
        (Source-- Kentucky revised statutes relating to strip mining
        and reclamation, 1966, Chapter 350, Regulation 11.)

    2.  The effluent shall not contain suspended matter in excess  of
        the limits shown in Attachment C, with the exception of during
        and four hours after a major precipitation event.  The  operator
        is not at any time to discharge an effluent containing  suspended
        matter in excess of 1,000 mg/1  from any area of land affected.

        NOTE:  (1)  A major precipitation event:  The number in inches
               of water greater than the duration of the storm  in  minutes
               divided by 100 plus 0.2.  (Source - U.S.D.A.  miscellaneous
               publication #204, "Rainfall  Intensity and Frequency Data,"
               1935.)

               (2)  Graph #2 is an example of the method employed  in
               determining a major precipitation event.   The graph depicts
               a major precipitation event according to time.

               (3)  Since the operator must show the major precipitation
               event has occurred, it will  require an installation at the
               operating site of a recording rain gauge.  In addition,
               precipitation must be included in the monitoring program.

               (4)  Area of land affected:   (The area of land from which
               overburden is to be or has been removed and upon which the
               overburden is to be or has been deposited,  which shall
               include all land affected by the construction of new
               roads or the improvement or use of existing roads other
               than public roads to gain access and to haul  coal.)

    3. .Sudden release of large volumes of water from the treatment
        facility must be prohibited.

        NOTE:  Release of large volumes of water, as during  a storm must
               be prohibited to prevent scouring of the treatment  facility.
               Therefore, there should  be established a level at which  the
               flow will be diverted from the treatment facility.   This
               level must be set for each individual  operation  taking into
               consideration the following:  (i) average precipitation  of
               area; (ii) receiving stream water quality standards; and
               (iii) the volume of water discharged during a once-in-ten-
               years' storm.

    4.  Use limits shown in Attachment C, Schedule A or B, as appropriate.
    SOURCE:  EPA
                                   B-ll
                                                              Arthur D Little, Inc

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                               ATTACHMENT A

         RECOMMENDED  PERMIT CONDITIONS FOR COAL-PREPARATION PLANTS
CRITERIA
 RECOMMENDED CONCENTRATION
         SCHEDULE
Suspended Solids
PH
Total Iron
Alkalinity
Toxic Materials
Oil and Grease
 30 mg/1
6.0 - 9.0
4.0 mg/1
Greater than acidity
  B

40   mg/1
6.0"- 9.0
 7.0 mg/1
No toxic or hazardous material a
designated under the provisions
Section 12 of the Federal Water
Pollution Control Act or known
to be hazardous or toxic by the
permittee except with the
approval of the Regional
Administrator (EPA) or his
Authorized representative.

Final resolution of this paramet
must await discussions with the
oil industry.  After
resolution, it will be applied
to all industry on a
relatively uniform basis.  Prese
thinking is that it may be a
single number no more stringent
than 5 mg/1 and no less
stringent than 10 mg/1 as a
final effluent limit.  The use
of dilution to achieve this
number will not be allowed.
     SOURCE:  EPA
                                   B-12
                                                                  Arthur D Little, I

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                                ATTACHMENT B

              RECOMMENDED PERMIT CONDITIONS FOR MINE-DRAINAGE
 CRITERIA
RECOMMENDED CONCENTRATION
         SCHEDULE
 Suspended Solids
 PH
 Total  Iron
Alkalinity
 Toxic  Materials
                                                                         B
30.0 ntg/1             40.0
6.0 - 9.0             6.0 - 9.0
4.0 mg/1              7.0 mg/1
Greater than acidity
No toxic or hazardous material
as designated under the provisions
of Section 12 of the Federal
Water Pollution Control Act or
known to be hazardous or toxic
by the permittee except with the
approval of the Regional
Administrator (EPA) or his
authorized representative.
SOURCE:   EPA
                                   B-13
                                                                  Arthur D Little, Inc

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                               ATTACHMENT C

         RECOMMENDED PERMIT CONDIT     FOR SURFACE MINING OPERATIONS
CRITERIA
Suspended Solids

PH

Total Iron

Alkalinity

Toxic Materials
Oil and Grease
 RECOMMENDED CONCENTRATION
          SCHEDULE
  A

 30 mg/1

 6.0 - 9.0
  B

 100 mg/1

6.0 - 9.0
 4.0 mg/1              7.0 mg/1

 Greater than the acidity

 No toxic or hazardous material
 as designated under the
 provisions of Section 12
 of the Federal  Water Pollution
 Control Act or known to be
 hazardous or toxic by the
 permittee except with the
 approval  of the Regional
 Administrator (EPA) or his
•authorized representative.

 Final  resolution of this
 parameter must await discussion
 with the oil industry.  After
 resolution, it will be applied
 to all industry on a
 relatively uniform basis. Prese
 thinking is that it may be a
 single number no more stringen
 than 5 mg/1 and no less
 stringent than 10 mg/1 as a
 final  effluent limit.  The use
 of dilution to achieve this nu
 will not be allowed.
SOURCE:   EPA
                                    B-14
                Arthur D Little, In

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SOURCE:   EPA
                                    B-15
                                                                    Arthur D Littk Inc

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                               ATTACHMENT D
                     MONITORING -  PREPARATION PLANTS
PARAMETERS
PH
Flow
Suspended Solids
Suspended Volatile  Solids3
Total Dissolved Solids3
Iron (total)
Manganese3
Turbidity3
Aluminum3
Alkalinity3
Acidity1
Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD)3
Oil and Grease^
TYPE OF
SAMPLE
Continuous
Continuous
Composite
Composite
Composite
Composite
Composite
Composite
Composite
Composite
Composite
Composite
Composite
iy  Determine by  hot phenolphthalein method
2/  Report as total  hexane soluble
3/  If conditions warrant monitoring these parameters,
    use type of sampling specified  above.
SOURCE:   EPA
                                  B-16
                           Arthur D Little, I

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                               ATTACHMENT E
                        MONITORING  - MINE DRAINAGE
 PARAMETERS
 PH
 Flow
 Suspended Solids
 Total  Dissolved Solids*
 Total  Iron
 Manganese*
 Aluminum*
 Sulfates*
 Turbidity '
 Conductivity*
 Suspended Volatile Solids*
 Chemical  Oxygen Demand (COD)*
 Acidity
 Alkalinity
TYPE OF
SAMPLE
Grab
Continuous
Composite
Composite
Composite
Composite
Composite
Composite
Composite
Composite
Composite
Composite
Composite
Composite
*If conditions warrant monitoring these parameters,
 use type of sampling specified above.
SOURCE:   EPA
                                B-17
                                                                Arthur D Little, Inc

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 PARAMETERS
                               ATTACHMENT  F
                       MONITORING -  SURFACE  MINING
TYPE OF
SAMPLE
 pH                               Grab
 Flow                             Continuous
 Precipitation                    Continuous
 Turbidity                        Grab
 Conductivity*                    Composite
 Suspended Solids                 Composite
 Total  Dissolved Solids*          Composite
 Total  Iron                       Composite
 Alumi num*                        Compos i te
 Manganese*                       Composite
 Chemical  Oxygen Demand (COD)*    Composite
 Sulfates*                        Composite
 Alkalinity (total)               Composite
 Acidity, (total)                  Composite
 Suspended Volatile Solids*       Composite
*If conditions warrant monitoring these parameters,
 use type of sampling specified above.
SdURCE:   EPA
                                    B-18
                                                               Arthur D Little, I

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