EPA-450/4-74-Ol4-b
October 1975
ACCOUNTING FOR NEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS IN PROJECTING
AND ALLOCATING EMISSIONS
-HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE-
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Air and Waste Management
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
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c
EPA-450/4-74-014-B
ACCOUNTING FOR NEW SOURCE
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS IN PROJECTING
AND ALLOCATING EMISSIONS
-HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE-
[A Supplement to Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance
Planning and Analysis - Volume 13: Allocating
Projected Emissions to Subcounty Areas
(EPA-450/4-74-014)]
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Air and Waste Management
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
October 1975
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OAQPS GUIDELINE SERIES
The guideline series of reports is being issued by the Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards (OAQPS) to provide information to state and local
air pollution control agencies; for example, to provide guidance on the
acquisition and processing of air quality data and on the planning and
analysis requisite for the maintenance of air quality. Reports published in
this series will be available - as supplies permit - from the Air Pollution
Technical Information Center, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
27711; or, for a nominal fee, from the National Technical Information Ser-
vice, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
PUBLICATION No. EPA-450/4-74-014-b
11
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ACCOUNTING FOR NEW SOURCE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS
IN PROJECTING AND ALLOCATING EMISSIONS
- HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE -
BACKGROUND
Volume 13: Allocating Projected Emissions to Subcounty
Areas of the Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Plannning
and Analysis was published before estimated New Source Performance
Standards (NSPS) emission data and time schedules were available
for consideration; for that reason this information was not
used in developing the general methodology presented in the
Industrial Emissions Section, 3.4, of the Guideline. This
attachment supplements Volume 13 and demonstrates how consideration
of the Federal NSPS should be incorporated into the emission
estimates needed to carry through the subcounty allocation
procedures of Volume 13. It is noted that the genera] procedure
described below parallels the consideration given to incorporating
NSPS information into Volume 7; Projecting County Emissions of
the Guidelines. An excerpt from Volume 7 of the Guidelines
explaining the applicability of the NSPS and effect on projected
emissions is included as an attachment to this supplement. The
reader should also be aware of the most recent proposal concerning
the definition of "modification" as it relates to NSPS applicability
(39 FR 36946).
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The net effect upon the methodology developed in Section
3.4 of Volume 13 of considering NSPS is to require intermediate
year calculations of new emissions from all industrial point
sources for which NSPS will exist. I The reader should review
pages 87 through 99 of Section 3.4,1 of Volume 13 in order that
the development which follows may be better understood.) The
estimates would be in addition to the suggested analysis years
of 1975, '80, '85.
For example, assume the following industrial point sources
existed in the county of consideration:
ABC Steel Company - Basic oxygen furnace (BOF)
DEF Copper Company - Strelter
GHI Clay Products Company - Complex of sources.
Assume also that NSPS are applicable to these sources in the
years 1977, 1978 and 1983 respectively. Hence, intermediate
calculations of emissions in addition to those suggested in
Volume 13 would be needed as follows:
— Steel Company BOF from 1975-1976 and 1977-1980
— Copper Company Smelter from 1975-1977 and 1978-1980
— Clay Products Company emissions from 1980-1982 and 1983-1985.
For the purpose of general model development it is assumed that
the effective date for the NSPS will commence on January 1 of the
specified calendar year, and that emissions relate to end-of-year
results.
The generalized equation for determining the effect on
emissions of a NSPS (or a more stringent State or local regulation)
that becomes effective in year i is:
E5 = E0 GF0,i-l U + CGRi>5 + RF.(NGR.j5) - (RR.^Xl - RF.)] (1)
-------
where:
Er = Emission rate for the 5th year following the
base year.
EQ = Emission rate in the base year.
GFQ • •, = The growth factor (expressed as a decimal) for
the period from the base year, 0, to the (i-1)
year. GFn . , = (1 + r)n, where r is'the
U 9 1 ~ I
applicable annual growth rate expressed as a
decimal and n is the number of years in the growth
period.
CGR. c = The growth rate for emission attributable to
1 »3
increasing production activity up to full
capacity for the period from the beginning of
the ith year to the end of year 5. CGR, r
i ,o
cannot exceed the unused capacity, expressed as
a fraction, available for production in year i.
CGR1 5 = (1 + r)n - 1.
RF. = The reduction factor for all applicable emissions
due to regulations applied in year i, RF. =
NER/PER where NER is the emission rate allowed
under new regulations and HER is the emission
rate allowed under the previous regulation. In
many cases, the emission rate under the new
regulations will be the NSPS; where State regu-
lations are more stringent, however, NER will be
the State regulation.
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NGR.J 5 = The growth rate for the period from the beginning
of year 1 to the end of year 5 applicable to
those emissions which are covered by new emission
regulations, either NSPS or more stringent State
regulations. NGR. _ = (1 + r)n - 1.
i ,o
RR. 5 = The retirement and replacement rate for the period from
the beginning of year i to the end of year 5 (expressed
as a decimal). RR.. 5 = (1 + R)n - 1 where R is
the annual retirement rate (expressed as a
decimal) for equipment for which NSPS or State
emission standards are applicable; n is the
number of years in the period from year 1 to
year 5.
In the case where all emissions growth is attributable to new
equipment or modifications (utilization of unused capacity
equals zero) and the equipment retirement and replacement rate is zero,
equation 1 simplifies to:
E5 = E0GF0,i-l C1 +RFl(NGR1>5)] (2)
Where the NSPS or more stringent State emission standards
are applicable to all growth and modifications within a five year
analysis period, and the growth assumptions and retirement rate
assumptions of equation (2) above hold, equation (2) becomes:
E5 = EQ(1 + RFQ NGR0>5) (3)
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Finally in the case of estimating emission projections for
a five year analysis period where no NSPS or more stringent
State emission regulations become applicable the above equation
simplifies to:
E5 ' E0S0,5
where:
GO 5 = The growth factor for the 5 year projection interval.
INTRODUCTION
This discussion presents a hypothetical example of a method
for taking EPA's anticipated new source performance standards
(NSPS) into account when projecting industrial emissions using
EPA's Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis,
Volume 13; Allocating Projected Emissions to Sub-County Areas.
A list of EPA's best estimates of anticipated NSPS and the approxi-
mate dates by which they are expected to take effect are given in
Table 1. These estimates have no legal basis because the standards
must be subjected first to further investigation and then to
EPA's procedures for rulemaking. The estimates presented in
Table 1 are thus subject to change. EPA advises States to use the
latest update of these estimates, which may be obtained from EPA regional
offices for use in the analysis of, and plan development in, air quality
maintenance areas under 40 CFR 51.12.
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ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE EXAMPLE
1. Assume that in County XYZ, Subarea A, three existing sources of
emissions subject to NSPS are the ABC Steel Company's iron and
steel basic oxygen furance (BOF), the DEF Copper Company's primary
copper (CU) smelter, and the GHI Clay Company's clay products plant.
These hypothetical source categories were chosen to demonstrate
how different effective dates for NSPS affect the projection of
emissions. From Table 1, the following information is obtained
for these three source categories:
Source
category
Iron and
steel mills
(BOF)
Primary
copper smel-
ters (roaster.
furnace, con-
verter)
Clay
products
sec
code
3-03-009-
03
3-03-005-
(01-05)
3-05-008-
(01-03)
3-05-009-
(02-03)
3-05-003-
(01-06)
Estimated NSPS
Effective Part.
date (year) matter SOV NO CO HC
X X
1977 0.022 or/
dscf
(99.8%
control)
1978 38 lb/
ton of
metal
produced
(99.5%
control )
1983 4.5 lb/
ton of
product
produced
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2. The example sources have the following characteristics:
Flow rate of
exhaust gases
or production
Source rate
ABC Steel 1.06 x 106 dscf/
CO. BOF min
(current (1000 hours
employ- of operation/
ment = 200) year)
DEF Copper 2600 tons metal
CO. Primary produced/year
Copper
Smelter
(current
employment =
Existing
emission
limitation
Parti cul ate
matter:
1.1 gr/dscf
S02: 380 lb/
ton metal
produced
Baseline (1975)
emissions*
Parti cul ate
matter :
5000 tons/year
CO: 1000 tons/
year
S02: 500 tons/
year
Parti cul ate
matter:
50 tons /year
200)
GHI Clay
Products
Co. (current
employment =
100)
50,000 tons of
product/year
Particul ate
matter: 10 lb/
ton of product
Particulate
matter: 250
year
tons/
*Assume that these sources are in compliance with existing regulations
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3. The baseline (1975) emissions are entered into Table 3.4-1
from Volume 13. The completed Table 3.4-1 also includes location
coordinates and employment figures for the hypothetical sources.
(Actually, a separate Table 3.4-1 should be completed for each
industrial process category; in this example, three source cate-
gories are entered into one table for brevity.) The growth
factor for the baseline year (1975) is assumed to be one (1).
4. The total growth in emissions is due entirely to increased
production from new or modified equipment. That is, the utilization
of unused plant capacity is zero.
5. The equipment retirement and replacement rate for the example
facilities is zero for the analysis periods.
CALCULATION OF FUTURE EMISSIONS FOR INDIVIDUAL EXISTING POINT
SOURCES - (RESULTS ENTERED INTO TABLE 3.4-1 FOR DIFFERENT YEARS)
VOL. 13 - ORDER 1 ANALYSIS: GROWTH ALLOCATED TO EXISTING SOURCES
1980 Emissions
1. Iron and Steel (BOF) - ABC Steel Company. Assume that the source
has an annual growth rate of 2.0 percent;
a. Particulate matter - NSPS will only control sources in
this category for 1977 and beyond. The following are the
input for equation (1):
Eg = E = 5,000 tons/year
GF0,i-l = GF1975, 1976 = 1'QZ
RF, = RF1Q77 = 0.022 qr/dscf = 0.02
1 |y// 1.1 gr/dscf
NGR. j5 = NGR1977j = (1 + 0.02)4 - 1 = 0.082.
8
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Entering these into equation (2) yields:
E5 = E]980 = (5000 tons/year) (1.02) [1 + (0.02) (0.082)]
= 5108 rounded to 5110 tons/year.
b. Carbon monoxide - No NSPS will control carbon monoxide
emissions. The growth factor for the 5-year period, 1976-
1980, will be:
(1 + 0.02)5 = 1.104.
Therefore » using equation (4), the emissions in 1980 will
be:
E5 = E1980 = (100° tons/year) (1.104) ~ 1100 tons/year.
2. Primary Copper Smelter - DEF Copper Company. Assume that the
source has an annual growth rate of 3 percent.
a. Sulfur dioxide - The NSPS will not control sources in
this category until 1978. The following are the input for
equation (2):
EQ = E = 500 tons/year
SF0,1-1 • GF1975,1977 ' (l+°-°3) - 1.061
RF. = RF1Q7R = 38 Ib/ton of metal produced = 0.10
380 Ib/ton of metal produced
NGR. >5 = NGRlg78> 1980 = (1 + 0.03)3 - 1 = 0.093.
Entering these into equation (2) yields:
E5 = E1980 = (5°0 tons/year) (1.061) [1 + (0.10) (0.093)]
*= 536 tons/year.
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b. Particulate matter - No NSPS will control parti oil ate
matter emissions from this source category, and therefore,
the 1980 emissions can be calculated directly using
equation (4). The growth factor for the 5-year period,
1976-1980, is:
(1 + 0.03)5 = 1.159
Therefore, 1980 emissions will be
E5 = E1980 = ^50 tons/year) (1-159)^58 tons/year.
3. Clay Products - GHI Clay Company. Assume that this source has
an annual growth rate of 2.5 percent. NSPS will not apply until
1983. Therefore, the growth in emissions over the first five years
can be calculated directly using equation (4). The 5-year growth
factor is:
(1 + 0.025)5 = 1.131.
Therefore, the 1980 emissions will be:
E5 = E1980 = (25° tons/year) (1-131) ~ 283 tons/year.
4. Summary - The above results are entered into columns 7-11 of
Table 3.4-1 for 1980. The 1980 employment for each source is the
product of the 1975 employment for the source and the growth
factor for 5 years for the source; the 1980 employment is entered
into column 12, of Table 3.4-1.
1985 Emissions
1. Iron and Steel (BOF) - ABC Steel Company. Again assume an annual
growth rate of 2.0 percent.
10
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a. Parti culate matter - Because the NSPS started to control
sources in 1977, equation (3) is used; the Inputs for
equation (3) are:
Eg = Elggo = 5110 tons/year
NGF0,5 = NGF1980, 1985 = ^ + °'02) ' ] * °'104
RFQ = RF1975 = 0.02. (from page 8)
Inserting these into equation (3) yields:
E5 = E1985 = (511° tons/year) H + (0-104) (0.02)]
= 5121 tons/year.
b. Carbon monoxide - The growth factor for the 5-year period,
1981-1985, is:
(1 + 0.02)5 = 1.104.
Therefore, using equation (4) the 1985 emissions are:
E5 = E1985 = (110° tons/year) (1-104) ~ 1210 tons/year.
2. Primary Copper Smelter - DEF Copper Company, assume again an
annual growth rate of 3 percent.
a. Sulfur dioxide - Because the NSPS started to control
sources in 1978, equation (3) is used; the inputs are:
Eg = E198Q = 536 tons/year
NGR0,5 = NGR1980, 1985 * " + 0.03)5 - 1 =0.159
DC — DC
KrO " Kr1980 = 0.10. (from page 9)
Entering these into equation (3) yields:
E5 = E1985 = 536 tons/year H + (0.159) (0.10)]
*= 545 tons/year.
11
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b. Particulate matter - Since no NSPS controls sources in
this category the 1985 emissions are calculated directly
using equation (4) as
Eg = Elg85 = (58 tons/year) (1.159) ^67 tons/year.
3. Clay Products - GHI Clay Company. The NSPS will apply to this
source in 1983. Again assume an annual growth rate of 2.5
percent. Equation (2) 1s used with the following inputs:
E0 = E1980 = 283 tons/year
GF0,i-l = GF1980, 1982 = (1 + 0.025)2 = 1.051
RF. = RF1Qp~ =4.5 Ib/ton of product = 0.45
1 Iyo<3 10 Ib/ton of product
NGRi,5 = NGR1983, 1985= (1 + 0.025)3 - 1 =0.077.
Entering these into equation (2) yields:
E5 = E1985 = (283 tons/year) (1-051) [1 + (0.45) (0.077)]
~ 307 tons/year.
4. Summary - The above results are entered into columns 7-11 of
Table 3.4-1 for 1985. The 1985 employment for each source is the
product of the 1980 employment for the source and the growth factor
for 5 years for the source; the 1985 employment is entered into
Column 12, Table 3.4-1.
CALCULATION OF FUTURE EMISSIONS FOP. ALL (EXISTING AND NEW) SOURCES
VOL. 13 - ORDER 2 and 3 ANALYSIS: GROWTH ALLOCATED TO NEW AND
EXISTING SOURCES (RESULTS ENTERED INTO TABLE 3.4-2)
1. Assume that for the hypothetical county, XYZ, the baseline year
emissions from existing point sources and the employment from those
sources are as given in Table 3.4-2, columns 2-7 (this information
12
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is obtained by summing emissions and employment over all individual
sources in each process category for Table 3.4-1 ; note that the
Table 3.4-1 previously constructed is only partially complete in
the context of the following example.)
2. Assume that in this hypothetical example, one-half of the
increase in emissions and employment for the county for all industrial
process categories is due to new sources at new locations and the
other half is due to new sources and modifications at existing
locations.
1 . Iron and Steel - BOF
Assume for this hypothetical case an annual growth rate for
the category of 2.5 percent.
a. Parti cul ate matter - The NSPS will control sources in
this category for 1977 and beyond for new emissions. Equation (2)
is used with the following input:
E0 = E1975 = 15»00° tons/year
GF0,i-l = GF1975, 1976 = 1'025
RF. = RF1Q7, = 0.022 gr/dscf = 0.02
1 iy/D 1.1 gr/dscf
NGR.j5 = N6R = (1 + 0.025)4 - 1 = 0.104.
Entering these into equation (2) yields:
E5 = E1980 = (15'°° tons/year) (1-025) [1 + (0.02) (0.104)]
^ 15,400 tons/year.
13
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b. Carbon monoxide - No NSPS will control. Therefore, the
growth factor for the 5-year period, 1976-1980, will be:
(1 + 0.025)5 = 1.131.
Therefore, using equation (4), the 1980 emissions are:
E5 = E1980 = (300° tons/year) (1-131) ~3400 tons/year.
2. Primary Copper Smelters - Assume for this hypothetical case an
annual growth rate of 3.5 percent for the category.
a. Sulfur dioxide - The NSPS will not control until 1978.
Equation (2) is used with the following input:
E0 = E1975 = 200° tons/year
GF0,1-1 = GF1975, 1977 Ml +0.035)2= 1.071
RF. = 38 Ib/ton of metal produced = 0.10
380 Ib/ton of metal produced
NGR.)5 = NGR1978> 198Q = (1 + 0.035)3 - 1 = 0.109.
Inserting these into equation (2) yields:
E5 = E1980 = (200° tons/year) (1-071) [1+ (0.10) (0.109)]
~ 2160 tons/year.
b. Parti cul ate matter - No NSPS controls sources of particulate
matter in this category. The growth factor for the 5-year
period, 1975-1980, is
(1 + 0.035)5 = 1.188.
Therefore using equation (4) the 1980 emissions are
E5 = E1980 = ^20° tons/year) 0-188) ~ 238 tons/year.
14
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3. Clay Products - Assume for this hypothetical case an annual
growth rate of 3.0 percent for the category. The NSPS will not
apply until 1983. The growth factor for the 5-year period, 1975-
1980, is:
0 + 0.03)5 = 1.159.
The 1980 emissions using equation (4) are calculated as:
E5 = E1980 = (100° tons/vear) (1-159) ~ 1160 tons/year.
4. Employment - Growth in employment is calculated as the product
of the 5-year growth factor between 1975 and 1980 and the 1975
employment.
a. Iron and Steel - EOF - Assume an annual growth rate of
2.5 percent. Therefore, the 5-year growth rate is:
(1 + 0.025)5 - 1 = 1.131-1 = 0.131 (equivalent to 13.1%).
Since the baseline year employment is 600, the growth in
employment is:
(600) (0.131)~80.
Therefore, the total employment for 1980 for all sources in
the category for the county is 680 (entered into column 14).
Since half of the new employment (40) will occur in new
sources, 40 is entered into column 26; the remaining 40
will be placed with the employment at existing sources
(600 + 40 = 640) and entered into column 20 of Table 3.4-2.
b. Primary Copper Smelter - Assume an annual growth rate of
3.5 percent. Therefore, the 5-year growth rate is:
0 + 0.035}5 - 1 = 0.188 (equivalent to 18.8%).
Since the baseline year employment is 800, the growth in
employment is:
(800) (0.188)~ 150.
15
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Therefore, the total employment for 1980 for all sources
in the category in the county is 950 (entered into column
14). Since half of the new employment (75) will occur
in new sources, 75 is entered into column 26; the remaining
75 will be placed with the employment at existing sources
(800 + 75 = 875) and entered into column 20.
c. Clay Products - The annual growth rate is 3.0 percent. Therefore,
the 5-year growth rate is:
(1 + 0.03)§ - 1 = 0.159 (equivalent to 15.9%)
Since the baseline year employment is 400, the growth in
employment is:
(400) (0.159) ^'64.
Therefore, the total employment for 1980 for all sources
in the category in the county is 464 (entered into column
14). Since half of the new employment (32) will occur in
new sources, 32 is entered into column 26; the remaining
32 will be placed with the employment at existing sources
(400 + 32 = 432) and entered into column 20.
5. Summary - The resulting emissions from above are entered into
the appropriate places in columns 9 to 13 of Table 3.4-2 for the year
1980. As aforementioned, Table 3.4-2 is usually completed by entering
the 1980 emissions and employment from existing sources (from Table
3.4-1 for 1980) into columns 15 to 20. In this hypothetical example,
however, Table 3.4-1 lists only 3 sources for simplicity and was
constructed to illustrate consideration of the NSPS. For that reason,
16
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the 1980 emissions and employment calculated from existing
sources and entered into columns 15 to 20 of Table 3.4-2 do not
relate to the previously constructed Table 3.4-1 but rather to
the assumed scheme concerning new location and existing location
stated above. The entries for columns 21 to 26 are the differ-
ences between the appropriate entries in columns 9 to 14 and
columns 15 to 20.
CALCULATION OF FUTURE EMISSIONS BY PROCESS CATEGORY AND SUBAREA
VOLUME 13 - ORDER 2 AND 3 ANALYSIS: EMISSIONS ALLOCATED BY
PROCESS CATEGORY AND SUBAREA (RESULTS ENTERED INTO TABLE 3.4-3)
1980
1. The hypothetical 1980 employment data for the three process
categories for Subarea A of county XYZ are presented in columns
2 and 3 of Table 3.4-3. In an actual calculation, the data for
column 2 would be obtained from area planning studies, and the
data for column 3 would be obtained from column 12 of Table 3.4-1.
Column 4 is the difference between column 2 and column 3.
2. The Employment Allocation Proportion (EAP) is calculated as the
ratio:
Subarea Category New Source Employment (from column 4)
County Total Category New Source Employment (from column 26, Table 3.4-2)
These ratios are entered into column 5.
3. The new source emissions for each subarea are then calculated as
the product of the EAP and the projected emissions for the whole county
(columns 21-25, Table 3.4-2). The results are entered into columns 6-10
as shown.
17
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SUBAREA SUMMARY
VOL. 13 - ORDER 1 , 2 AND 3 ANALYSIS: SUMMARY OF EMISSION BY SUBAREA
(RESULTS ENTERED INTO TABLE 3.4-4).
1980 Emissions .
1. The existing point source emissions for county XYZ, Subarea A for
Iy80 are here assumed for the hypothetical case (columns 4-8); in
actual practice, this information is taken from Table 3.4-1.
2. The 1980 new source emissions (columns 10-14) are taken from
Table 3.4-3, columns 6-10.
3. The total 1980 emissions (columns 16-20) are the sum of the appro-
priate entries in columns 4-8 and columns 10-14 of Table 3.4-4.
This completes the example projection and allocation of industrial
process sources for 1980; 1985 projections are calculated in a similar
manner and are not presented here in the interest of brevity.
18
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Table 3.4-3
Process Emissions by Process Category and Subarea
A. County
B. Subarea
C. Year
D. Allocation Order
2 and 3
Industrial
Process Category
(1)
IfoM^SrettBoF
3-03-009-03
ftL\M*W(jj SMZLT,
3 -03 -#>£•-£ J
CL/4Y PRODUCTS
3-0 4-003 -£ )
E. SUBAREA TOTAL
Total
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(2)
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425
232.
Point
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-------
ATTACHMENT
EXCERPT FROM VOLUME 7: PROJECTING COUNTY EMISSIONS. GUIDELINES FOR
AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE PLANNING AND ANALYSIS
"(3) The Effect of New Source Performance Standards on Forecasted
Emissions
The value for the future equivalent control efficiency to be
"plugged into" the emissions equation is usually a function of the
laws and regulations already agreed upon by the State agencies and
EPA. There are, however, some industrial processes that are now,
or are likely to be, subject to Federal New Source Performance
Standards (NSPS). Some NSPS became effective in 1971 while others
will be implemented in 1975. Still others will probably be in
effect by 1980 or by 1985. Preliminary estimates of the emission
reductions resulting from these promulgated and proposed NSPS have
been tabulated by EPA for use in Air Quality Maintenance emission
projections and can be obtained from the AQMA representative in
each EPA Regional Office. This reference specifies either the
required control efficiency (percent removal of uncontrolled emissions)
or the maximum amount of pollutant allowed per unit of activity for
each process likely to be affected by NSPS between 1974 and 1985.
Federal NSPS apply to the following industrial activities:
(a) New equipment installed in an existing facility
36
-------
(b) Replacement of obsolete equipment within an existing
facility
(c) All equipment in a new facility.
Federal NSPS do not apply to utilization of idle capacity, however,
Thus, three different situations can exist for an industrial
process subject to NSPS:
(a) The entire facility is subject to NSPS
(b) Part of the production is subject to NSPS and no other
laws affect the remaining production
(c) One part of the production is subject to NSPS and the
remainder is subject to a local agency regulation.
Exhibit 1 depicts plan information for a source that is
currently subject to a local regulation or compliance schedule and
also will be subject to a NSPS in 1980. The objective of this
example is to show, in general, how to estimate 1985 emissions when
one portion of the 1985 source production will be subject to a NSPS
and the remainder will still be subject to the local regulation. This
method is also valid when the NSPS is the sole control regulation
affecting the industrial process. Before constructing a graph
similar to Exhibit 1, the following data must be collected for the
point source under investigation:
(a) Production rate for the base year (obtained via interviews)
(b) Design capacity (obtained via interviews)
37
-------
EXHIBIT 1
Sample Plant Projections
x
H
CJ
<
0-
<
(J
CO •-
LU 5,
.0 -
u
o
O)
en
in
oo
CT)
cc
LU
ir
O
2
UJ
_l
<
CO
en
(HV3A d3d Q3DnOOad SNO1 '3 'I) 13A31 A1IAI10V
38
-------
(c) Replacement rate of obsolete process equipment (obtained
via interviews or assume twice equipment lifetime allowed
by the Internal Revenue Service for tax purposes*).
(d) Future activity growth rate obtained via interviews or
from generalized growth projections (e.g., OBERS[**]).
The following procedure was used to construct the graph in
Exhibit 1:
(a) Draw a horizontal line representing the design capacity
for the year in which the NSPS becomes effective
(b) Draw the expected activity growth pattern starting at the
projection level for the base year
(c) Draw a line representing the rate obsolete process
equipment is replaced; start the line on the year that the
NSPS becomes effective.
Line E-F represents the portion of 1985 production expected
to be subject to the NSPS whereas line F-G represents 1985 production
subject to the local regulations. Total 1985 emissions are calculated
by inserting the appropriate activity values and required control
efficiencies into the emission equation and summing the results.
It has been assumed in the above example that the proposed
NSPS is more stringent in limiting emissions than the existing local
regulations. If this is not the case, the local regulation should
be applied to the entire 1985 production."
*U.S. Department of the Treasury, Internal Revenue Service,
Depreciation Guidelines and Rules. Pub. No. 456, Hashington, D.C.,
August 1964.
[**1972 OBERS Projections—Economic Activity in the U.S. Volume 5:
Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Prepared by the U.S.
Departments of Commerce and Agriculture for the U.S. Water Resources
Council, Washington, D.C., April, 1974.]
39
-------
TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1 REPORT NO.
EPA-450/4-74-014-b
2.
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSIOt*NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and
Analysis, Volume 13: Allocating Projected Emissions
to Subcounty Areas; Supplement No. 1
5. REPORT DATE
September 1975
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
David Sanchez and John Silvasi
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air and Waste Management
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, N.C. 27711
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Final
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
Part of a 13-volume series
16. ABSTRACT
Supplement No. 1 of Volume 13: Allocating Projected Emissions to Sybcounty Areas,
presents a hypothetical example of how to account for future new source per-
formance standards in projecting and allocating emissions. The supplement
also presents a general methodology for considering these future new source
performance standards in the projection and allocation techniques.
17.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
c. COSATI Field/Group
Air Pollution
Atmosphere Contamination Control
Air quality maintenance
plans
Emission inventories
Forecasting emissions
Subcounty Emissions
allocation techniques
13-B
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Unlimited
19. SECURITY CLASS (ThisReport)
Unclassified
21. NO. OF PAGES
41
20. SECURITY CLASS (Thispage)
Unclassified
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
40
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