United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Science Advisory
Bdard
EPA-SAB-EC-95-007A
January 1995
A Technical Annex to
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EPA-SAB-EC-95-007A
January 1995
Report-. Futures and
A Technical Annex to "Beyond the Horizon:
Protecting the Future with Foresight"
Prepared by the
Environmental Futures Committee
Science Advisory Board
Washington, DC 20460
Printed on Recycled Paper
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Notice
This technical annex, like the companion report, has been written as part of the activities of
the Science Advisory Board (SAB), a public advisory group providing extramural scientific
information and advice to the Administrator and other officials of the Environmental Protection
Agency. The Board is structured to provide balanced, expert assessment of scientific matters
related to problems facing the Agency. This report has not been reviewed for approval by the
Agency and, hence, the contents of this report do not necessarily represent the views and
policies of the Environmental Protection Agency, nor of other agencies in the Executive Branch
of the Federal government, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute
a recommendation for use.
Seven reports were produced from the Environmental Futures Project of the SAB, The titles
are listed below:
(1) Environmental Futures Committee EPA-SAB-EC-95-007
[Title: "Beyond the Horizon: Protecting the Future with Foresight," Prepared by the
Environmental Futures Committee of the Science Advisory Board's Executive Committee.]
(2) Environmental Futures Committee EPA-SAB-EC-95-007A
Title: Futures Methods and Issues, Technical Annex to the Report entitled "Beyond the
Horizon: Protecting the Future with Foresight," Prepared by the Environmental Futures
Committee of the Science Advisory Board's Executive Committee.]
(3) Drinking Water Committee EPA-SAB-DWC-95-OQ2
[Title:" Safe Drinking Water: Future Trends and Challenges," Prepared by the Drinking
Water Committee, Science Advisory Board.]
(4) Ecological Processes and Effects Committee EPA-SAB-EPEC-95-OQ3
[Title: "Ecosystem Management: Imperative for a Dynamic World," Prepared by the
Ecological Processes and Effects Committee, Science Advisory Board.]
(5) Environmental Engineering Committee EPA-SAB-EEC-95-004
[Title: "Review of Environmental Engineering Futures Issues," Prepared by the Environ-
mental Engineering Committee, Science Advisory Board.]
(6) Indoor Air Quality and Total Human Exposure Committee EPA-SAB-IAQC-95-005
[Title: "Human Exposure Assessment: A Guide to Risk Ranking, Risk Reduction and
Research Planning," Prepared by the Indoor Air Quality and Total Human Exposure
Committee, Science Advisory Board.]
(7) Radiation Advisory Committee EPA-SAB-RAC-95-006
[Title: "Report on Future Issues and Challenges in the Study of Environmental Radiation,
with a Focus Toward Future Institutional Readiness by the Environmental Protection
Agency," Prepared by the Radiation Environmental Futures Subcommittee of the Radiation
Advisory Committee, Science Advisory Board.]
Single copies of any of these reports may be requested and obtained from the SAB.
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Science Advisory Board
Environmental Futures Committee
Chair
Dr. Raymond Loehr*
H. M. Alharthy Centennial Chair and Professor
Environmental and Water Resources Program
The University of Texas at Austin
Austin, TX
Members1
Mr. Alvin Aim*
Sector Vice President
Science Applications International Corporation
McLean, VA
Mr. Richard Conway**
Senior Corporate Fellow
Union Carbide Corporation
South Charleston, WV
(Liaison to the Environmental Engineering Committee)
Dr. Paul Deisler*
(Retired from Shell Oil Company)
.Austin, TX
Dr. Kenneth Dickson*
Director, Institute of Applied Science
University of North Texas
Denton, TX
(Liaison to the Ecological Processes and Effects Committee)
Mr. Theodore J. Gordon
(Retired from The Futures Group)
Vero Beach, FL
Mr. Fred Hansen2
Director Oregon Department of
Environmental Quality
Portland, OR
'The Committee was also assisted by Ms, Linda Greer, Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, DC, who
attended one meeting, --- '-
'Member of the Executive Committee at the time of EFC Study,
"Former member of the Executive Committee.
"Mr. Hansen served on the Environmental Futures Committee from December 1993 until September 1994 at which time
he resigned to become the Deputy Administrator of EPA,
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Dr. Morton Lipprnann*
Institute for Environmental Medicine
New York University
Tuxedo, NY
(Liaison to the Indoor Air Quality and Total Human Exposure Committee)
Dr. Genevieve M. Matanoski*
Department of Epidemiology
School of Public Health
The Johns Hopkins University
Baltimore, MD
(Executive Committee Chair and Liaison to the Radiation Advisory Committee)
Dr. Paulette Middleton
Science & Policy Associates, Inc.
Boulder, CO
(Liaison to the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee)
Dr. Verne Ray*
Medical Research Laboratory
Pfizer Inc.
Groton, CT
(Liaison to the Drinking Water Committee)
Dr. Terry Yosie
Vice President
E. Bruce Harrison Company
Washington, DC
Designated Federal Official
Dr. Edward S. Bender
Mr. A. Robert Flaak
US EPA/Science Advisory Board
401 M Street, S.W.,(1400F)
Washington, DC 20460
Staff Secretaries
Ms. Diana L. Pozun
Ms. Lori Anne Gross
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Contents
Page
1.0 Introduction , , 1
1.1 Charge to the Committee 1
1.2 Procedures of the Committee 1
1.2.1 EFC Activities 2
1.2.2 Standing Committee Activities , .....3
2.0 Background and Agency Futures Experience 4
2.1 Legacy of Reducing Risk .....4
2.2 Current Futures Activities in EPA... ;... 4
2.2.1 EPA Futures Staff 4
2.2.2 Office of Research and Development 5
3.0 Recommended Methods for Identifying Possible Future Environmental Issues 6
3.1 Task 1: Scenarios 7
3.1.1 Describing Future Possible Conditions .....8
3.1.2 Adding Substance to the Scenario 8
3.1.3 An Example of the Use of Drivers/Scenarios 12
3.1.4 Final Comments About Scenarios 14
3.2 Task 2: Look Out Panel 15
3.3 Task 3: Scanning 15
3.4 Task 4: Screening 16
3.5 Task 5: Panel Review 17
3.6 Task 6: Analysis 17
3.7 Task 7: Implementation 17
4.0 Considerations for the Future 19
4.1 The Importance of Driving Forces in Shaping Environmental Issues 19
4.1.1 Population Growth 19
4.1.2 Per Capita Income Growth and Energy Use 19
4.1.3 Technological Change 19
4.2 Environmental Issues Can Affect Foreign Affairs 20
4.2.1 Issues that Cross Political Boundaries...... 20
4.2.2 Environmental Quality as a Foreign Affairs Issue 20
5.0 Identification and Selection of Issues for the Future 22
5.1 Overview of the Approach 22
5.2 Principal Limitations to the Pilot "Lookout Panel" 22
5.3 General Outcome of the Pilot Effort 22
5.4 Issue Collection and Refinement 23
5.4.1 Issue Collection ... 23
5.4.2 Combining Issues .23
5.4.3 Consolidating Issues ...23
5.5 Criteria and Processes for Selecting Potentially Significant Issues from a
List of Issues 23
5.5.1 issue-Selectiqn Criteria 23
5.5.2 Issue-Selection Processes 24
5.5.2.1 Qualitative Selection Processes 24
5.5.2.2 Quantitative Selection Processes 26
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5.6 Derivation of a Set of Overarching Issues Areas 27
5.7 Further Discussions and Recommendations 27
6.0 Highlights of the Standing Committee Activities 29
6.1 Drinking Water Committee Report 29
(EPA-SAB-DWC-95-002)
6.2 Ecological Processes and Effects Committee Report 29
(EPA-SAB-EPEC-95-Q03)
6.3 Environmental Engineering Committee Report 30
(EPA-SAB-EEC-95-004)
6.4 The Indoor Air Quality and Total Human Exposure Committee Report 31
(EPA-SAB-IAQC-95-005)
6.5 Radiation Advisory Committee Report ., 31
(EPA-SAB-RAC-95-Q06)
6.6 Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee! 32
7.0 Retrospective Analysis ; 33
Appendices , 34
Appendix A: Input Data: Master List of Specific, Future Issues Collected 35
Appendix B: List of Refined Potential Future Issues Created by Combining Like
Future Issues in Appendix A 44
Appendix C: An Alternative Classification of the Refined Issues 53
Appendix D: Detailed Description of the Issue-Selection Criteria..... ....54
Appendix E: Example of a Scoring Matrix 56
Appendix F: A Set of Eleven Overarching Issue Areas .65
Appendix G: Overarching Issue Areas Prepared for Discussion with the EFC 72
Appendix H: Selected Published Information on Foresight and Driving Factors 77
Appendix I: List of Organizations and Individuals Contacted 79
VI
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1.0 Introduction
This document is a technical annex to the Science Advisory
Board (SAB) report "Beyond the Horizon: Using Foresight to
Protect the Environmental Future," EPA-SAB-EC-95-001, It
provides details on the activities undertaken by the Environ-
mental Futures Committee (EFC) to address the charge to the
SAB. Sections 3-5 include materials developed by EFC work
groups on methods and process, driving factors, and specific
environmental issues. This information was used by the entire
Committee, along with information obtained from documents,
presentations from both inside and outside, of the Agency,
meetings with different types of groups, and personal con-
tacts. Appendices A-G present the lists of issues areas, future
issues, potential problems, criteria for selecting issues for
further evaluation, and an example of an issue ranking proce-
dure that was developed by the EFC during the Environmental
Futures project.
Abraham Lincoln once said, "If we could first know where we
are, and whither we are tending, we could better judge what to
do, and how to do it."3 To understand "whither we are tend-
ing" is to have foresight capability. Foresight capability will
help to make one better aware of the consequences of present
choices by us and by others.
1.1 Charge to the Committee
On My 16, 1993, Carol Browner, Administrator, United
States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and David
Gardiner, EPA Assistant Administrator for the Office of Policy,
Planning and Evaluation, requested that the SAB carry out a
study addressing future environmental and human health prob-
lems.
The SAB was asked to develop a procedure for conducting a
periodic scan of the future horizon and to choose a few of the
many possible future developments for in-depth examination
of potential environmental impacts.
The Executive Committee of the SAB considered and ac-
cepted this request and established an ad hoc SAB committee,
the EFC, to undertake this effort. Based on the proposed
charge, the SAB accepted the following specific goals for this
project:
A. Develop procedures for conducting a short (five- to ten-
year horizon) and long-term (20-year horizon or longer)
scan of future developments that will affect environ-
mental quality and the nation's ability to protect the
environment over a medium to long-term time frame.
3 Grant, L. 1988, Foresight and National Decisions. University of America
Press. Lanham, MD,
B. Conduct as comprehensive a scan as practical to identify
important future developments and environmental con-
sequences.
C. Choose a limited number of short- and long-term future
developments for in-depth evaluation of their environ-
mental consequences.
D. Develop appropriate procedures for conducting in-depth
examination of those future developments and conse-
quences.
E. Apply procedures described in D.
F. Draw implications for EPA from the in-depth examina-
tion of future developments.
The following points were added by the EFC:
G. Recommend possible actions for addressing the devel-
opments and consequences.
!L Propose possible approaches for continuing EPA pro-
grams that address evaluation of future developments
and environmental consequences.
I. Develop a method for communicating the results of the
Futures study so that it will have an impact on appropri-
ate professionals in EPA,
1.2 Procedures of the Committee
The general approach to the EFC efforts is illustrated in
Figure 1. The annual SAB meeting in October 1993 was the
kickoff event serving as the opportunity to brief all SAB
members and other interested individuals about the project
and its objectives. Following that meeting several Standing
Committees agreed to participate. The EFC met twelve times
during this project and conducted six fact-finding sessions
with various organizations. The Standing Committee activi-
ties are summarized in Section 6.
The project activities drew on knowledge that currently .exists
and the capabilities of the SAB members. Both the EFC and
the SAB Standing Committees used available reports, and the
Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation (OPPE) and SAB
staff facilitated project activities. OPPE provided examples of
forecasting methods and reports, and sources of data on
driving forces. As an example, OPPE funded and made avail-
able an earlier study, "Challenges Ahead for the U.S. Environ-
mental Protection Agency in the 21 st Century: Final Report of
the Megatrends Project," by the World Resources Institute
(WRI) which served as a background document. OPPE staff
assisted in locating and providing other reports and docu-
ments that helped to establish baselines, trends, and proce-
dures. '
1
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Tentative
Schedule
Organizational Meetings
SAB Annual Meeting
-Board Discussions
-Kickoff Event
September 1993
October 1993
EFC
-Review Available Reports
and Documents
-Interview Individuals and
Organizations with
Experience in Relevant
Areas
nformation
Flow
SAB Standing Committees
- Use Scientific and -
Technical Expertise to
Respond to the Project
Charge and Goals
October 1993
Meet and Discuss
Progress with
Relevant Groups
Standing Committees
Develop Individual
Reports
jr
EFC Prepares Integrating,
Summary Project Report
Final Report Polished,
Printed, and Transmitted
EPA
Spring and
Summer 1994
Late Summer 1994
Fall 1994
Winter 1995
Figure 1. Overview of the Environmental Futures Project.
1.2.1 EFC Activities
The EFC interviewed knowledgeable individuals, including
those from relevant organizations, to seek insights and infor-
mation. Organizations included those that have considered
similar issues, such as WRl, Census Bureau, Department of
Energy, Department of Commerce, EPA-OPPE staff, indus-
try forecasters and planners, as well as individuals who have
focused on issues related to the future and to national and
international developments that may affect public health and
the environment (Appendix I).
The EFC established four Work Groups on (a) methods, (b)
driving forces, (c) specific issues, and (d) scenarios to de-
velop preliminary thoughts in these areas. The Methods
Group developed an overview of an early warning system
and its possible functions, by drawing from presentations and
information from the EFC and from their own expertise. The
Scenario Group developed heuristic scenarios for use in the
analysis of specific issues and principles for the development
and application of scenarios as part of a top-down approach
for foresight. Actual scenarios were also developed as part of
the work of the Ecological Processes and Effects Committee
(EPEC), one of the participating Standing Committees of the
SAB, and summarized (Section 3.1.2) with the work of the
Methods Group. The Driving Forces Group provided valu-
able insights for interpreting some impacts of drivers and
applying foresight methods. They identified policy issues
that flow from consideration of future environmental issues
that have implications for future society and government
policy makers. The Specific Issues Group developed a set of
criteria for selecting issues of environmental concern for the
future. The Specific Issues Group also facilitated the whole
EFC, which served as a pilot 'look out" panel.
The results of these four activities are described in detail in
this Technical Annex. Section 3 presents the design of a
recommended method for detecting and analyzing future
environmental problems and sketches of environmental sce-
narios. Section 4 discusses driving forces that is those large
societal and economic forces that set the stage for future
environmental issues and in their evolution result in environ-
mental stresses on a global scale. Section 5 presents specific
issues generated by the EFC, criteria for issue evaluation and
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a description of the process used by the EFC to identify these
issues.
1.2.2 Standing Committee Activities
The Standing Committees were invited to develop their own
approaches to the project. Each of the participating Standing
Committees became, in effect, a "look out" panel for its own
area of interest; each followed its own methods for generating,
identifying, and selecting future issues. Each participating
Standing Committee also had a representative on the EFC to
provide inputs to, and participate in, the work of the EFC and
to act as a communication link. From this came a rich variety
of responses from the Standing Committees noted below. All
committees used their scientific and technical expertise to (a)
identify baseline information and trends that may be expected
to have future impacts on human health and/or the environ-
ment, (b) focus on one or more case studies relevant to their
expertise, and (c) describe the procedures they used to recog-
nize future environmental concerns.
Seven Standing Committees participated: the Executive Com-
mittee through its Environmental Futures Committee, the
Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC), the Drink-
ing Water Committee, the Ecological Processes and Effects
Committee, the Environmental Engineering Committee, the
Indoor Air Quality and Total Human Exposure Committee,
and the Radiation Advisory Committee. CASAC provided
issues that are included in the appended lists of issues but did
not produce a separate report. The other five technical com-
mittees provided issues and also produced separate reports the
results of which are reflected in this report. Each Standing
Committee report includes a discussion of the premises, meth-
ods, and resources that were used in developing findings and
recommendations. Highlights of the findings of the Standing
Committees are discussed in Section 6; however, the reader
should consult the Standing Committee reports for details on
the assumptions and implications of those findings. Refer-
ences to the Standing Committee reports are listed below:
Drinking Water Committee
Ecological Processes and Effects
Committee
Environmental Engineering
Committee
EPA-SAB-DWC-95-002
EPA-SAB-EPEC-95-003
EP A-S AB-EEC-95-004
Indoor Air Quality and Total Human Exposure
Committee EPA-SAB-IAQ-95-005
Radiation Advisory Committee EPA-SAB-RAC-95-006
These reports are available from the Science Advisory Board
(1400), Committee Evaluation and Support Section, 401 M
Street, S.W., Washington, DC 20460, (202) 260^8414.
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2.0 Background and Agency Futures Experience
2.1 Legacy of Reducing Risk
This project is a logical extension of the SAB reports on
"Future Risk" (EPA/630/R-92/001) and '"Reducing Risks"
(EPA-SAB-EC-90-021). In both reports, the SAB indicated
that it was important for EPA to increase its ability to identify
the future potential risks to human health and die environ-
ment. In both of these earlier reports, the SAB recommended
that the Agency use long-range strategic planning and that the
Agency focus on setting risk priorities and developing multi-
media risk solutions.
2.2 Current Futures Activities in EPA
EPA has several current futures activities that may be useful
as the Agency considers the how to implement the recommen-
dations of the EFC. The activities of two organizations are
summarized below based on information provided to the EFC
by the Office of Research and Development (ORD) and
OPPE. In addition, the EFC is aware that EPA has several
other projects that could be related to foresight techniques:
The Environmental Goals Project; EPA's Strategic Planning
activities; and its attempts to develop measurements of envi-
ronmental results.
2.2.1 EPA Futures Staff
Since the fall of 1989, a small group of EPA professionals
have been designing and implementing foresight activities
within the OPPE. These activities within EPA were spawned
by briefs given to OPPE's Assistant Administrator by a mem-
ber of the Dutch government engaged in similar activities in
preparing their National Environmental Policy Plan and in
response to the S AB's Future Risk Report.
The present group is composed of three fun-time federal
employees and is complemented by student interns, and staff
on loan from other parts of EPA. The group's annual extramu-
ral budget within OPPE's Office of Strategic Planning and
Environmental Data is just under $300,000.
The Futures staffs .self-directed mission is to develop, sup-
port, and promote an anticipatory, systematic approach to
environmental policy-making. This approach is designed to
identify strategic opportunities for sustainable development
and pollution prevention, compare potential outcomes of policy
options in advance, to sharpen our understanding of forces
that shape society and the environment, and to clarify and
reduce uncertainties in critical areas. Key activities include:
Conducting studies to help organizations envision sus-
tainable environmental futures.
'Identifying emerging issues, critical trends, and strategic
Opportunities relevant to environmental planning and de-
cision-making.
« Collecting and synthesizing information on the environ-
ment, economic sectors, and other key drivers to help
identify and assess sustainable development policies.
Identifying, developing, and using tools and methods that
support foresight and systematic thinking. These tools
and methods are used to develop alternative futures,
identify their potential.environmental impact, and exam-
ine policy options for sustainable development, pollution
prevention, and mitigation of problems.
» Coordinating EPA's futures work with complementary
work in other agencies, institutions, private corporations,
and nonprofit organizations.
Specific projects underway at OPPE include:
Demographic Change and the Environment (Battelle
Northwest via Interagency Agreement with Department
of Energy, Richland, WA, Laboratory) - This project is
designed to broaden bur understanding of population-
environment linkages and facilitate the integration of
population issues into long-range environmental policy
and planning.
» Reinvigorating the National Environmental Policy Act
(NEPA) as a Tool for Defining and Measuring Progress
Toward A Sustainable United States - Under a coopera-
tive agreement with the Environmental Law Institute, this
study will examine how NEPA can be used as a planning
and policy tool. NEPA could serve as a government-wide
instrument to integrate sustainability into decision-mak-
ing and to increase foresight and foster interdisciplinary
understanding.
Sustainable Futures for Community Water Resources
(Continuing) - Under a cooperative agreement with the
Rocky Mountain Institute of Technology Forecasting and
Technology Policy, this project supports work on identi-
fying and clarifying emerging issues, trends, and policy
alternatives relevant to the development of water infra-
structure and water resources. This includes, but it is not
limited to, issues, trends, and policies affecting the future
of community water services and the environment, with a
particular focus on the residential/commercial subsector.
A central goal of this project is to help decision-makers
develop plans for the sustainable use and management of
water resources.
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Identifying Environmentally Important Technologies^ in
the Metal Castings Industry - An in-house exploratory
analysis to forecast the potential environmental impacts
of advances composite materials technology over the
next decade. Based on this analysis, a framework will be
developed for near-term government policies that may
mitigate long-term environmental impacts.
Kentucky Futures and Comparative Risks Project (con-
tinuing) - This project, an in-house collaboration with the
State of Kentucky, is intended to expand the comparative
risk process to capitalize on human and social imagina-
tion creating positive visions of Kentucky and then
examining the environmental risks avoided by moving
down certain paths of social, economic, technological,
and demographic development with a focus on creating a
sustainable future. Anticipated products include a long-
range sustainable development strategy, over 100 issue
papers relating sustainable development to economic sec-
tors and other issues, and partial support of the Long-
Range Policy Research Center.
« Industrial Ecology: The Role of the Federal Government
(Draft, 1993), and an accompanying annotated bibliogra-
phy - Industrial ecology is a concept that applies ecologi-
cal principles to the industrial processes. The concept
offers many new approaches to industrial production that
could lead to sustainable development in the U.S. and
abroad. This paper identifies barriers to implementing the
concept and suggests how these barriers can be over-
come.
U.S. EPA Futures Internet Information Server - An
Internet-connected, information resource providing the
environmental futures community with EPA information.
Currently available on all of the major platforms (GO-
PHER, WAIS, and Mosaic). This server is also being
used to enhance networking among state and local gov-
ernments and to obtain feedback from the field on EPA
activities.
For analytical and conceptual support, the Futures staff uses
cooperative agreements and contracts to work with such orga-
nizations as
The World Resources Institute, The Rocky Mountain
Institute, RAND Corp., Massachusetts Institute of Tech-
nology, The National Academy of Sciences/National Re-
search Council, Environmental Law Institute, The Human
Affairs Research Center (Battelle), United Nations Uni-
versity (see discussion Section 3.2) and Wide Area Infor-
mation Servers, Inc.
ties, and technological choices; improving methods of pre-
dicting and evaluating risk; and broadening the type and focus
of environmental research. The program was envisioned to
include several existing elements: ORD's National Human
Exposure Assessment Survey (NHEXAS) and Environmental
Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), designed to
provide a comprehensive, integrated national data base of
human health and environmental conditions, and OPPE's Fu-
tures staffs "Critical Trends" work, designed to delineate
demographic, economic, behavioral, and other drivers of en-
vironmental problems. The program was also considering
establishing a technology monitoring/forecasting effort. Final
decisions have been delayed until ORD determines how it will
implement the recommendations of the EPA laboratory study5
and its plans for reorganization of ORD.
The Anticipatory Research Program was also described in an
ORD Research Issue Plan, draft February 1993.6 The impor-
tance of this research was noted in earlier reports of the SAB
and a Peer Review Panel.7 The term anticipatory was defined
in two ways: (1) the anticipation of potential environmental
problems before they arise and (2) the identification of cur-
rently small scale or poorly defined environmental concerns
that have the potential to become more serious. In the Envi-
ronmental Futures Project, the Look Out panel identified
emerging issues that met both of these definitions.
During the Environmental Futures Project, ORD staff pre-
sented the results of a survey of ORD Laboratory Directors'
opinions regarding the important environmental issues of the
future. Each of the laboratories included issues related to
social science and concerns over the human values and atti-
tudes toward the environment. In addition, they noted defi-
ciencies in our current ability to deal with land use and
environmental resources, growing U.S. and world population
pressures on the environment, continuing problems of solid
waste, air, and water quality, arid the need to develop global
strategies to deal with environmental impacts associated with
free trade and expanding economies of the world. Coinci-
dently, most of these issues were also identified by the mem-
bers of the SAB in this project (see Appendix A).
2.2.2 Office of Research and Development
ORD and OPPE initiated an Anticipatory Research Program4
in January 1994. The major components of that program
include new elements: collecting and analyzing a broad range
of environmental and human behavioral data; identifying
emerging trends in environmental conditions, human activi-
4 Skumanich, M. and K. Paterson, 1994. Initial Scoping of an ORD Technology
Monitoring and Forecasting" Effort. Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory.
Seattle, WA.
5Mitre Corp. 1994. Assessment of the Scientific and Technical Laboratories
and Facilities of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Performed under
Contract No. 68D40003. For information on this report contact Mr. Tom Hadd
at 202-260-7500. In addition, SAB. 1994. Review of Mitre Corp. Draft report
on the EPA Laboratory Study. Prepared by the Research Strategies Advisory
Committee, provided many recommendations that are being addressed under
the current ORD reorganization.
"ORD. 1993. Strategic Issue Plans. 38, Anticipatory Research and Emerging
Environmental Problems. Issue Planner: Hal Zenick.
'EPA. 1992. Safeguarding the Future: Credible Science, Credible Decisions.
EPA/600/9-91/050. The Report of the Expert Panel on the Role of Science at
EPA. January 8, 1992.
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3.0 Recommended Methods for Identifying Possible
Future Environmental Issues
The Agency should design and implement a comprehensive,
continuous, and well integrated system for detecting and
analyzing incipient future developments that might threaten
the environment or provide new pollution prevention opportu-
nities for the Agency. Of course, many activities are already
underway at the Agency that focus on the future including
those described in Section 2 by ORD and OPPE. The EFC
recommends that the Agency go well beyond such existing
and worthwhile current efforts. The Agency should create an
in-house information system capable of detecting important
"weak signals" of future changes that could impinge adversely
on the environment or create new opportunities for the Agency
to achieve its goals.
Any early warning system should have the following charac-
teristics; it should:
draw from a wide range of sources to help assure that a
broad net is cast. Specifically, in implementing an early
warning system, the Agency should make use of relevant
information that exists in data bases, models, and other
institutions. It should draw on experts, both in and outside
of the Agency, who have firsthand knowledge about
changes in process that may presage future issues.
be global in scope, but without sacrificing attention to
national, regional, and local issues.
* operate in a continuous rather than a "one-shot" mode.
» have an institutional memory, so that suggestions that are
set aside today for lack of data or interest can be reas-
sessed in the future.
8 be quantitative, wherever possible, to facilitate analysis.
be subject to scrutiny by people outside of the process to
help avoid the introduction of biases.
» make goals ~ and where possible, values explicit.
' recognize that many futures are possible and the condi-
tions that actually emerge are likely to be the product of a
huge number of large and small changes and decisions
that aggregate in a way that is unknown yet may create
vastly different prospects.
« be tolerant of errors and omissions since no analytic
method will eliminate the uncertainties of the future.
* encourage rather than repress imaginative views of the
future that may seem "far out" today but may neverthe-
less represent very real threats or opportunities;
link to and provide information to other activities of the
Agency; for example( an effective early warning system
should trigger R&D activities and should offer significant
.background for Agency planning.
« report periodically on principal findings about prospec-
tive threats and opportunities to inform the national agenda
and stimulate discussion about priorities and policies.
In the remainder of this chapter, a system is described that
could meet most of these requirements. Because this is one of
many approaches that may prove effective, we offer this
system only as an illustration of what might be done. The
group within the Agency that is ultimately charged with the
responsibility for such a system should design its own ap-
proach.
Figure 2 shows the major features of an early warning system,
As this figure illustrates, the approach involves three primary
ways to develop information:
Scenarios (Taskl): This method involves constructing a set of
internally consistent images of the future based not only on
current trends but on perceptions about future developments
that could change those trends. In this approach, these images
of the future are studied to identify future issues and opportu-
nities; they also serve as backdrop for analyzing the signifi-
cance of issues identified by other means and for evaluating
candidate strategies. This is a "top down" source of ideas
about future environmental issues; that is, it builds from big,
holistic images about the future circumstances that may exist
Look Out Panel (Task 2), This approach uses experts in the
field and other interested and informed participants who are in
a position to observe, firsthand, public health and environ-
mental developments and assess data pertaining to environ-
mental stresses that.could serve as early warnings of
environmental changes of importance to the nation and the
Agency. This is a "bottoms up" source of information about
future environmental issues, that is, it is designed to provide
judgments from selected participants about specific develop-
ments that may be of concern.
Scanning (Task 3): This activity involves a continual and
thorough review of published information and contacts with
other "futures watching" organizations. With respect to the
review of published information, both formal publications in
scholarly journals and informal publications in some of the
newer media such as science-oriented computer bulletin boards
should be included. The scope of this review goes well
beyond the bounds of traditional environmental literature to
include important peripheral disciplines. Further, it would be
useful to include a systematic review of data that are collected
-------
Input Sources
Task?
Figure 2. Major Features of the Early Warning System.
by the Agency and other organizations in the United States
and abroad. Finally, the Agency should establish formal links
to other "futures watching" organizations in the federal gov-
ernment, in foreign governments, and in industry to exchange
data and perceptions about future developments that could
have environmental consequences.
The information from these three sources is intended to pro-
duce an array of possible issues and opportunities for EPA to
consider. Many will be uncertain and dependent on other
factors; some will be of high probability, others low; some
will be significant, others immaterial. The burden of the
remaining portions of the system sketched above is to identify
the issues likely to be of highest significance, to determineto
the extent possible-their likelihood and impacts, and to de-
vise effective mitigation strategies, given these possibilities.
To accomplish the required assessment, each issue should be
screened (Task 4) against a well defined set of criteria that,
ideally, will-separate those items worth considering from
those of lesser significance (see Sections 4.5 and 5.5.1 for an
example of such criteria). The items that pass through this
filter can be reviewed and assessed by an expert panel (Task
5). This panel might consist of an expansion of the lookout
panel of Task 2 or a new panel with in-depth expertise,
precisely targeted at the areas related to the issues of interest.
Those items that have priority will be subjected to,analysis
(Task 6) including modeling, cost benefit analysis, and risk
analysis to determine the most promising policy choices. The
scenarios constructed in Task 1 will be useful in Task 6 since
the assessment of issues suggested by the panel (Task 2) or by
the scanning process (Task 3) can be based, at least in part, on
the circumstances depicted by the scenarios.
Finally, when appropriate, initial implementation steps will be
taken in Task 7.
These tasks are described in more detail in the paragraphs that
follow.
3.1 Task 1: Scenarios8
A scenario is a rich and detailed portrait of a plausible future
world, one sufficiently vivid that a planner can imagine and,
to some extent, comprehend the problems, challenges, and
opportunities that would be faced in such an environment, A
scenario is not a forecast per se; rather, it is a synthesizing
tool, a plausible description of what might occur. Scenarios
describe events and trends as they could evolve.
Because of the multiplicity of forces that shape the future,
their complexity and their interactions, the future that grows
from the present can never be accurately or completely known.
Most planners and futurists today would reject the idea that
planning should be conducted against a single "most likely"
scenario or image of the future, since all futures will contain
surprises and no particular future that we can describe is in the
statistical sense very likely.
Rather than accuracy, the measures of a good scenario are
plausibility (telling the story about getting from here to
there in a rational fashion),
internal self consistency, and
* usefulness in decision making.
'This material is largely drawn from "Scenarios," a methodological report in
the series produced by The United Nations University for the UNDP Africa
Futures Project, as part of the Millennium Project Feasibility Study. 1994,
-------
Sets of scenarios are used in planning. If the sets encompass a
broad span of future possibilities, and plans are generated to
cope with the eventualities they portray, then the plans will be
robust and the future can be met with some degree of confi-
dence. Most planners who use scenarios recommend that
three scenarios one optimist, one neutral, and one pessimis-
tic should be employed. Generally planners employ richer
variations to define a "scenario space."
3.1.1 Describing Future Possible Conditions
In general, the term scenario has been used in two different
ways to describe future conditions. First, scenarios are used to
describe a future history, that is, the evolution from present
conditions to one of several futures. These scenarios are
"exploratory" and they lay out the causal chain of decisions
and circumstances that lead from the present. The second
approach, used primarily for "normative" scenarios, involves
"backcasting" in which some desirable future state is postu-
lated and a chain of causality is projected back from that
future time to the present to illustrate how the desirable future
might be achieved.
EPA planning might benefit from the use of scenarios. Some
of the questions that will have to be addressed by the planning
team are
« specifically, which scenarios should be included?
how do these scenarios link to others that exist in the
federal government and elsewhere?
is there a systematic means for choosing the themes of the
scenarios to be constructed?
what should be the geographic and temporal scope of the
scenarios?
Ideally, the set of scenarios chosen by EPA should encompass
a range broad enough to illustrate important future opportuni-
ties and issues that might otherwise have been missed, and yet
narrow enough to provide depth to arguments about the
severity of future issues, the significance of potential opportu-
nities, and the effectiveness of alternative policies.
Undoubtedly, the Agency will want to choose scenario drivers
as the first step in this exercise. The Agency should include
consideration of those largely external drivers that will exac-
erbate or inhibit future environmental issues or affect the
capability to deal with these issues. These drivers include:
population growth in the United States and abroad
" technological developments that can affect the processes
through which environmental risks are generated or met
economic factors (including consideration of personal
affluence, industrial evolution and third world develop-
ment) and the valuation of natural resources in terms of
preservation of biodiversity, ecosystem balance, climate,
etc.
public and political awareness of environmental issues
and willingness of the public and political institutions to
actively pursue goals that affect the environment.
As an example, take the extremes of these four driving dimen-
sions. Permuting these produces sixteen primary global sce-
nario cases; many more are possible if intermediate values for
these four driving dimensions are considered. These permuta-
tions are too numerous to consider simultaneously. But three
of these global scenarios are particularly interesting and rec-
ommended for consideration by EPA:
Let the Future Take Care of Itself Case: High population
growth everywhere, few capabilities or incentives to improve
the processes that result in environmental threats, rapid eco-
nomic development, and low political awareness and public
activism. This combination leads to a polluted and risky
future. .
A Frustrating Case: High population growth in third world
countries and the United States, low technological progress,
low affluence, and high political awareness and public activ-
ism. Here the public will to protect and improve the environ-
ment is also high, but the means fiscal and technological
to pursue desired environmental policies are low.
A Promising Case: Moderate population growth and develop-
ment in third world countries, high technological progress,
relatively high affluence worldwide, and high political aware-
ness and public activism. In this scenario there is public will
to improve the environment and the money and the technol-
ogy to pursue enlightened environmental policies exist simul-
taneously.
A sketch of the possible world future conditions under these
three scenarios is presented on the following page,
EPA should review the principal scenarios that have already
been created by other federal agencies and consider the envi-
ronmental consequences of the conditions described. These
existing scenarios could provide a good starting point for the
Agency's work. Useful planning scenarios may already exist
at the Department of Energy (Energy Information Agency)
and elsewhere.9
3.1.2 Adding Substance to the Scenario
Once having selected the scenario cases of interest, EPA
should consider the following activities:
define and project drivers of environmental factors in a
manner consistent with each scenario case
analyze and project environmental consequences
9For example, among scenarios of particular interest might be those created
by
- OECD. depicting some potential fiitures for OECD and developing
countries
- California's South Coast Air Management Board
- the energy futures project of the Edison Electric Institute
- the Energy Modeling Forum (see Energy Policy, March 1993)
- the Network for European Communications and Transport Study
(Futures, July/ August 1992)
In addition, various country and regional scenarios have been reported in
Energy Policy in the last few years, including the Middle East (Energy .
Policy, November 1990); Taiwan (Energy Policy, December 1990), USSRr
(Energy Policy, December 1991), Mexico (Energy Policy, December 1991),
.Korea (Energy Policy, December 1991), Central America (Energy Policy,
April 1992, Sub-Sahara Africa (Energy Policy, January 1993), and France
(Energy Policy, March 1993).
,8
-------
Drivers
Environmental Attitudes
Population Growth
Third World Development
Technological Development
Domain
Institutional Development
Scenario 1 :
Let the Future Take
Care of Itself
Not concerned
High
High
Moderate
Features
No fo.llow up to
Rio Conference
Global
Climate
Change
Convention is
weakly implemented
Environmental
backlash in
developing countries
NGO efforts
frustrated; seem to
be part of the problem
UN largely ineffective
in achieving environ-
mental cooperation
Scenario 2:
A Frustrating Case
Deeply concerned
High
Moderate/Low
Low
Features
Rio framework results
in serious effort to
understand and control
greenhouse gases
Global
Climate
Change
. Convention is
implemented
Environmental
consciousness grows
throughout the world,
together with great
frustration about lack
of accomplishments
NGO efforts
frustrated; funding
inadequate because
of adverse economic
conditions
UN efforts in
achieving pledges of
environmental co-
operation Succeed, but
costly activities are
postponed because of
lack of funding
Scenario 3
A Promising Case
Deeply concerned
Moderate
Moderate
High
Features
Rio framework results
in serious effort to
understand and control
greenhouse gases
Global
Climate
Change
Convention is
implemented
Environmental
consciousness
grows through-
out the world,
with some satis-
faction about
progress shown
NGO efforts to
improve environ-
mental conscious-
ness meet some
success
UN becomes
effective in
achieving
environmental
cooperation
Business Developments
Energy
Businesses minimize
environmental
expenditures
Business managers have
little appreciation for
environmental matters'
Energy policies unfocused
in most countries
Large-scale electrification
Energy mix stays roughly
the same; natural gas increases;
solar and renewable slowly
increase
Coal use increases
dramatically in China and
Russia
Businesses minimize environ-
mental expenditures
Business managers do what
they can to improve the
environment but funds are
limited
Energy policies focus on in-
expensive modes but not much
gets done
Electricity's share of total energy
production remains constant
Natural gas use grows slowly;
inexpensive research is
fostered
Coal use increases dramatically
in China and Russia
Firms see pollution
prevention as a source
of competitive advantage
New breed of industrial
managers have stronger
environmental ethic
Energy policies geared
to conservation and re-
newables in most
countries
Electricity's share of
total energy production
remains constant
Natural gas use grows
rapidly; it becomes a
transitional fuel toward a
predominantly solar and
renewable economy
Coal use increases in
China and Russia
-------
Drivers
Environmental Attitudes
Population Growth
Third World Development
Technological Development
Scenario 1 :
Let the Future Take
Care of Itself
Not concerned
High
High
Moderate
Scenario 2:
A Frustrating Case
Deeply concerned
High
Moderate/Low
Low
Scenario 3
A Promising Case
Deeply concerned
Moderate
Moderate
High
Domain
Features
Features
Features
Transportation
Economy
Technology
Agriculture
1C powered vehicles
predominant
Latin America and Asia
have high levels of
economic growth
China goes through
industrial revolution
Info technologies improve
efficiency.
Environmentally friendly
technologies not pursued
Mega cities in third world
Water treatment technologies
are needed but not much is
done
Use of fertilizers and pesticides
intensifies
1C powered vehicles
predominant
Economic growth everywhere
is moderate or low
China's industrial revolution.is
slower
Info technologies lag
Some environmentally friendly
technologies are approved but
use lags
Mega cities in third world
Water treatment technologies
are needed; research is. slow
Use of fertilizers and pesticides
intensifies
1C vehicles replaced by
mass transit, electric
vehicles, natural gas/fuel
cell vehicles
Economic growth in Latin
America and Asia is
moderate
China's industrial revolu-
tion is slower
Info technologies allow
decentralization
Environmentally
friendly technologies
developed and are
widely applied
Mega cities averted
Water treatment techno-
logies are widely
employed
Use of harmful fertilizers
and pesticides dimin-
ishes; alternatives used
Education
Environmental curricula
remain the same or are
diminished
Environmental curricula are
improved and spread world-
wide; global ethics introduced
Environmental curricula
are improved and spread
worldwide; global ethics
introduced
Consequences
Total levels of greenhouse
gases and other toxins
increase
Agricultural activities
intensify greatly
Desertification in Africa and
parts of Asia
Little trading of greenhouse
gas reduction rights
Massive loss of rain forests
Over fishing, depletion
Total levels of greenhouse
gases and other toxins
increase
Agricultural activities
intensity greatly
Desertification in Africa and
parts of Asia
Worldwide trading of greenhouse
gas reduction rights save .for
future era when new facilities can
be constructed in earnest
Massive loss of rain forests
Over fishing, depletion, despite
international conventions
Greenhouse gases
and the production of
other toxins are
stabilized
Agricultural activities
grow moderately
Desertification generally
controlled
Worldwide trading of
greenhouse gas reduc-
tion rights helps save
many rain forests
Some agricultural land
returned to rain forests
International conventions
reduce over fishing;
aquacuiture becomes
major industry
10,
-------
Drivers
Environmental "Attitudes
Population Growth ,
Third World Development
Technological Development
Scenario 1 :
Let the Future Take
Care of itself
Not concerned
High
High
Moderate
Scenario 2:
A Frustrating Case
Deeply concerned
High
Moderate/Low
Low
Scenario 3
A Promising Case
Deeply concerned
Moderate
Moderate
High
Domain
Features
Features
Features
Increased run off, eutrophi-
cation, pollution
Accelerated depletion of
species
Essentially no endangered
species conventions
Increased production of solid
and hazardous waste
Environmental refugees in
Africa and parts of Asia
Increased runoff, eutrophica-
tion, pollution
Accelerated depletion of
species
Essentially no endangered
species conventions
Increased production of solid
and hazardous waste but at
slower rate because of low
economic growth
Environmental refugees in
Africa and parts of Asia
Nonpoint sources
brought under control
through better land
management
Biodiversity maintained
Endangered species
conventions save many
species
Less solid and
hazardous waste
Few environmental
refugees
Environmental conflicts over
war and other resources
Disparity between haves and
have nots increases, increasing
the potential for violence
Air pollution in major cities
Intensifies
Genetic technology advances;
applied to agriculture and
medicine
Decreased dialogue among
decision makers worldwide
Environmental conflicts over
water and other resources
Disparity between haves and
have nots increases, Increasing
the potential for violence
Air pollution in major cities
intensifies
Genetic technology advances
are slowly realized; applications
to agriculture and medicine lag
Increased dialogue among
decision makers worldwide
Environmental conflicts
over water and other
resources are averted
Disparity between haves
and have nots improves
from today's levels
Air.pollution in major
cities is improved
Genetic technology
advances; applied to
agriculture and medicine
Increased dialogue
among decision makers
worldwide
determine alternative policies for consideration
Among the drivers, the Agency may wish to consider, for
example, energy supply and usage, demographic factors, eco-
nomic activity, transportation, industrial production, agricul-
ture, and institutional activities at the international, national,
and regional levels.
Within each of these categories, a set of variables should be
identified and forecast where possible (e.g. for transportation:
the number of miles traveled per year; for social change,
consumer purchasing behavior and values and mores relevant
to the environment). These variables will not only add sub-
stance to the scenarios and facilitate the testing of contem-
plated policies but will provide the basis for tracking changes
as they occur.
Among the environmental consequences, the Agency should
consider possible impacts on a global, national and regional
scale for both current and emerging issues, including, for
example: ,
« natural resource depletion
biodiversity
human health, particularly the changing nature of risks to
health and reproduction
» the sources, nature and quantities of waste products (in-
cluding heat and hazardous waste production) and the
markets for waste products
land (e.g., acidification, desertification, nutrient quality),
water and air quality
11
-------
« water resources (quantity and quality)
food availability
the consequences of environmental changes from the
viewpoint of stakeholder communities including state
and local governments, industry, labor, and various inter-
est groups
Among alternative policies, we suggest that the Agency in-
clude examination of "paradigm shift" policies as well as
policies that respond to the specific issues that are raised by
the scenarios. Among the "paradigm" shift policies are
sustainability, industrial ecology, preservation of reproduc-
tive vitality, life cycle analysis, inte'rgenerational responsibil-
ity, and pollution prevention.
The discussion to this point has focused on exploratory sce-
narios, that is descriptions of plausible self consistent images
of what might be expected. A second type of scenario is also
important: normative scenarios. Normative scenarios are vi-
sions of what might be. Scenario 3 described earlier is an
example of a normative scenario. Generally, they reflect some
single unifying concept of a desirable future that servea as an
organizing principle; sometimes normative scenarios result
from goal-oriented group process in which individuals or
representatives of grass roots organizations interact to articu-
late desirable goals or end points. Probably the best current
example of an organizing principle is sustainable develop-
ment, a concept that was proposed by the World Commission
on Environment and Development in 1987.'°
One of the most promising approaches to forming normative
scenarios is "backcasting." In this technique, an image of a
desirable future is formed, for example in the form of a
description of some future society. The burden of the scenario
is then to describe the paths that lead from "there" to "here" in
a plausible and self-consistent manner."
The EFC recommends that the Agency form a number of
normative scenarios and use them as the basis for collecting
and focusing desirable images of the future. These can be the
basis for public outreach and can provide cohesive and com-
pelling images of the futures to which the Agency is aspiring.
10 World Commission on Environment and Development. 1987. "Our Common
Future," also known as the Bruntland Commission. Published by the United
Nations.
" The Science Advisory Board received several examples of normative sce-
narios in the presentations leading to this report. These included the work of
the 2050 Project of the World Resources Institute, which is an example of
such an approach. This project asks, "Under what conditions will global
suslainability be reached in the next century?" Another project based on a
future scenario image is the Sustainable Agriculture and Research Program
(SAKE) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. In this work, for example, one
type of domestic agriculture is practiced on the Twenty-First Century
Diversified Farm," which is farmer operated, a partnership of not more than
three families, emphasizing use of on-farm resources, in which hired-worker
days usually do not exceed farm-family worker days."
3.1.3 An Example of the Use of Drivers!
Scenarios
m their environmental future project, EPEC explored and
found useful an approach for futures analysis based on the
principles developed in "Reducing Risk" (EPA-SAB-EC-90-
021) and the Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment
(EPA/630/R-92/001). Their approach is repeated here as an
example of the kind of scenario-derived problem analysis that
might be conducted in Task 1.
A matrix approach is used to evaluate and communicate the
intensity of potential ecological effects, the uncertainties of
these estimates, the types of ecological responses and the time
scales for ecological recoveries following removal of stres-
sors. This approach appears to provide a rational basis for
evaluating ecological and other problems at various spatial
scales (e.g., local, regional, national, and global) and temporal
scales (e.g., 20 years, 100 years). Similarly, this framework
provides a process for analyzing stressors and effects, charac-
terizing risks and examining consequences of risk manage-
ment decisions.
The premise of the ecorisk approach is that adverse effects
occur as a result of exposure to one or more stressors. While
the foundations of the approach explored by EPEC come from
ecological risk assessment, the approach appears to have
wider utility in futures analyses in other areas.
The conceptual model for futures analysis provides a method-
ology for identifying the interactions between drivers (ulti-
mate causes of change), stressors and ecological endpoirits,
delineating the causes and effects of environmental changes,
and exploring ways in which management actions can pre-
vent, influence, and/or mitigate environmental risks. Figure 3
illustrates the elements of the conceptual model.
The use of the conceptual model incorporates a scenario
approach with the decision-making framework used for risk
assessment. (These may in fact be the same scenarios as
developed in Task 1.) Future scenarios are developed using
assumptions about driving forces, and the effects of these
scenarios on endpoints of concern (ecological health) are
determined using the ecological risk assessment framework.
The results of the exercise can be used to identify possible
consequences and to identify actions that can be taken to
avoid or minimize effects (risk management). The process of
using the approach appears to foster the development of a
strategic vision, and may promote nimble responses to unfore-
seen events.
The first step in using the conceptual model is to define
"drivers"the major variables that determine trends in re-
source use. The primary drivers are anthropogenic factors that
affect the stressors in some fashion. Table 1 lists some pri-
mary drivers, stressors, and ecological endpoints used by
EPEC in evaluating alternative energy scenarios.
During the actual scenario development, EPEC found it useful
to consider more detailed subcategories of these primary
driyers irt order to create a more focused story or scenario. For
example, assumptions about human population growth and
distribution might include increasing proportions of urban, as
opposed to rural, populations worldwide. Similarly, assump-
12
-------
Scenario Development
Problem Formulation
Drivers
Primary/Resource Use
Influence Drivers
Regulate
Use
Risk Management
Alternatives
Ecosystems
and/or
Humans at Risk
Perform Risk
Characterization
Figure 3. A Conceptual Model for the Use of Futures Analysis in Environmental Risk Assessment.
Table 1. Initial List of Drivers, Stressors and Ecological Endpoints
Drivers
Environmental
Stressors
Ecological
Endpoints
Government policies
Population growth/ distribution
Globalization of economy
Unequal distribution of wealth
Consumption per capita
Education
.Energy
Urbanization
Water availability
Environmental ethics
Resource ownership
Resource depletion
Agriculture '
Technology development
War
Global climate
Habitat alteration
Stratospheric ozone
Biological depletion
Herbicides/pesticides
Toxins in surface water
Acid deposition
Airborne toxins
Nutrients
BOD
Turbidity
Oil
Ground water contamination
Radionuclides
Acid inputs to surface water
Thermal pollution
Exotic species introduction
Ecological condition
Species
Population
Community
' Ecosystem
Landscape/region
Habitat
Biodiversity
Productivity
Products and services
Welfare/vista/aesthetics
Community
Population
Community
Ecosystem
Community
Community
Source: Reducing Risk: Setting Priorities for Environmental Protection (EPA-SAB-EC-9Q-021).
tions about technology development and use might include
broader use of existing industrial technologies in the develop-
ing world or development of more environmentally benign
technologies distributed globally,
Stressors. After the initial scenario is developed the next step
is to determine the implications of the scenario for endpoints
of concern. The process can take advantage of already-exist-
ing paradigms for predicting ecological effects; the ecorisk
framework provides a method for identifying the causes of
ecological change or damage, termed "stressors" and evaluat-
ing the effects of these stressors on ecosystem components.
EPEC concluded that for assessing ecological futures the
stressors identified in "Reducing Risk" were the most signifi-
cant in influencing future environmental problems and con-
tinue to pose the greatest risks to the integrity and sustainability
of ecosystems (Table 1).
Linkages Between Drivers and Stressors. Each of the drivers
may influence ecological stressors. A matrix approach is an
effective way to determine and communicate the relationships
between the anthropogenic drivers and the ecological stres-
sors and to determine which effects are the most significant
Table 2 illustrates a matrix developed by EPEC for a scenario
involving unlimited energy at a global scale with a time
horizon of 30 years. For each driver and stressor, the direction
of the linkage was characterized as positive (+) , negative (-)
or scenario - dependent (+/-), and the strength of the linkage
13
-------
Table 2. Strength of Linkages Between Divers and Ecological Stressors
(Global Scale, 30 years)*
Drivers/
Stressors
Population
Consumption per capita
Globalization of economy
Technology
Education
Envir laws policies
Climate
Change
H+
H+
M+/-
M+/-
L-
MW-
Habitat,
Loss
H+
H+
H+/-
M/H +/-<
M-
M+/-
UVB
Levels
L+
L+
L-
L-
L-
H-
Pesticide
Use
H+
L+
H+/-
H+/-
M-
H+/-
Pollution
H+
H+
M+/-
M+/-
M-
H+/-
Nutrient
Enrichment .
H+
H+
L+/-
M+/- .
L-
H+/-
Exotic
Species
L+
M+
H+
H+
M-
U/-
*The linkages were designated H-high, M-medium, or L-low and + or - indicates that the stress is increasing or decreasing.
or association was classified as high, medium, or low. For
example, an increase in the rate of population growth would
be expected to be strongly related to an increase in habitat
loss, while stabilization of population powth would be strongly
related to a decrease in the rate of habitat loss,
Assessment Endpoints, Assessment endpoints identify those
particular characteristics of systems that can be used to char-
acterize the health of the system. In the ecological arena, a
suite of ecological endpoints is necessary, explicitly cutting
across organizational hierarchy (Le., organism, population,
community, ecosystem, and landscape levels). These end-
points are ecological characteristics, but they are selected to
include both things of importance ecologically, (e.g.,
biodiversity, primary productivity, critical species) and things
that are important to humans (e.g., endangered species, and
aesthetic, nuisance, or economic disbenefits), A matrix ap-
proach similar to that used to link drivers to Stressors can be
used to link Stressors to assessment endpoints.
Mitigation. An important component of the conceptual model
for futures analysis outlined in Figure 2 is risk mitigation.
Once the risks associated with a particular scenario are identi-
fied, formulation of strategies for mitigating or managing the
risk can be explored. These may include action on the drivers,
Stressors, or endpoints. The management options emerge from
the generation and analysis of the scenario and characteriza-
tion of the risks associated with the specific problems defined.
Examples of specific risk management strategies might in-
clude:
Influence the drivers: The risk is managed by impacting
the primary drivers of environmental change. Examples
of this approach include changes in regulatory mandates,
globalization of the economy (NAFTA or GATT, etc.)
Regulate the Use of Resources: Risks can be reduced at
the level of resource utilization through a variety of
measures including land use plans, energy utilization
controls, water allocation, and timing of resource use,
« Exposure Management. This option controls impacts of
Stressors by limiting or controlling exposure of specific
ecosystem components to stress. Innovative technologies
that either prevent pollution by process modification or
materials substitution preventing the release of materials
that can impact the ecosystem are examples that might be
considered in this option.
Restoration: Restoration includes a variety of remediation
technologies, as well as reintroduction of endangered
species, revegetation, etc.
In any case, the analysis can be conducted against a set of
"goals and vision statements" that, in the aggregate represent
the desired future state of the environment. These visions
would, to the extent possible, be in quantitative form and
maintained by staff, but informed by a wide variety of inputs
from interest groups, experts, policy makers, and others. The
techniques for deriving these goals and visions are not sug-
gested here but must include a wide range of outreach tech-
niques that include public meetings.
Policies suggested by the analyses would be tested analyti-
cally and could be fed back to the panel for qualitative
judgment in Task 5. Those policies that are found to bring the
expected future state closer to the desired goals and visions
would be recommended for further study or implementing
action. In addition, scenario analysis can lead to the identifica-
tion of options that appear to be useful in all of the scenarios;
these clearly are "good bets." Finally, options will be identi-
fied that are designed to collect additional information so that
the extent of a potential issue can be better assessed.
3.1.4 -Final Comments About Scenarios
The EFC recommends that the Agency make a deliberate
effort to use material in its scenarios that has been produced
by other organizations located in the United States and abroad.
It is probably unwise to seek consensus about scenarios
among institutions concerned about the future, since much of
the benefit of scenarios derives from the act of constructing
the scenarios and reasoning through the causal impacts they
depict. But, reviewing the scenarios of other institutions will
help trigger ideas about change, ease the burden of data
collection, and improve communications. EPA might take the
lead in establishing a clearinghouse for such information,
particularly with respect to environmental scenarios, or it
might participate in. a consortium that would focus on the
findings of future oriented studies.
The scenarios produced by the Agency could be included in a
biennial "State of the Environment" report. One of the princi-
pal features of this report could be the presentation of the
forecasts of range of the variables included in its scenarios, for
examples, indicators of sustainability. (See Task 7 for further
14
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discussion about dissemination of the results of the early
warning activities of EPA.)
3.2 Task 2: Look Out Panel
The scenarios of Task 1 are "top down" (i.e., the big picture
giving rise to images of future environmental issues). By
contrast, the look out panel of Task 2 uses "bottom up" (that
is, ideas about future issues and opportunities are generated by
individuals who, by virtue of their experience, knowledge,
and observations, perceive incipient problems and nascent
opportunities).
The panelists involved in this enterprise are contacted on-line,
through the mail, or by FAX and asked to scan their fields and
provide observations about new or intensifying issues or
nascent opportunities that might face EPA (Task 2). They are
also asked for judgments about developments suggested by
other panelists, the possible causes of the reported develop-
ments, and policies that might be useful (Task 5). The EFC
suggests that a medical metaphor might be appropriate: panel-
ists will be asked for judgments about symptoms of newly
emerging or future environmental issues, diagnosisthat is,
the possible causes of the issues , and therapies, the options
that might be effective in.addressing these issues.
Because in any practical design, the number of respondents
will be small, a "look out" panel cannot produce statistically
significant results. The results provided by the panel will not
predict the response of a larger population or even the find-
ings of a different panel. They will represent the synthesis of
opinion of that particular group, no more or less.
Since the value of an EPA "look out" panel will depend on the
knowledge and cooperation of the panelists, it is essential to
include persons who are likely to contribute valuable ideas. In
a statistically based study such as a public opinion poll,
participants are assumed to be representative of a larger
population. In panels of the sort we recommend, nonrepresen-
tative, knowledgeable persons are needed. The panelists not
only must be expert in their disciplines, they also must be able
to think broadly "about environmental problems encompassing
many fields. They must be willing to step beyond the usual
confines of strict scientific knowledge and "create" a future.
EPA laboratory directors, division directors, state environ-
mental personnel, and representatives of environmental action
groups might be included in the group invited to participate.
EPA recently funded a study at the United Nations University
to investigate the design of such a panel. Among the key
findings of this study that are relevant to the design were
**"'
Candidate panelists can be identified through systematic
literature searches, nomination by two or more peers in
"daisy chain" fashion, and through recommendations of
professional organizations.
* Panelists should be compensated for their time and reim-
bursed for the cost of communications.
» Important qualifications of panelists are his or her disci-
pline, experience, work, and interests. There should be a
deliberate attempt to include search mechanisms that
seek out creative thinkers and diverse viewpoints. The
panel should be global in outlook.
* The composition of the panel should change over time;
rotation is to be encouraged to bring fresh minds and
views into the process.
Communications media should include E-Mail, post and
FAX. E-Mail, while convenient for the staff, may not
expedite two way communications or not be available to
all those invited; FAX is most expensive.
« To the extent possible, questions of fact should be di-
rected to those panelists who are expert in that area.
Panelists should be able to excuse themselves from an-
swering questions about which they are not expert. (Note:
as in EPA's Scientific and Technological Achievement
Awards grading system, panelists could state their degree
of expertise/experience/knowledge, when they answer.)
Panelist responses should be anonymous when fed back
" to the group as a whole, although the list of participants
should be known to all.'2
EPA should consider a second, broader, less formal panel as
well. This panel would be open to contributions.from anyone.
In particular, as an experiment, EPA might establish a super-
vised computer bulletin board on Internet and some of the
other computer communications services. The bulletin board
could serve as the basis for collecting observations about
incipient issues and prospective policies, and provide the
medium for debate and discussion about these subjects .
3.3 Task 3: Scanning
This task is designed to generate ideas about potential issues
and opportunities through the systematic and continuous re-
view of news about current scientific and technological devel-
opments important to the future of the environment. Presently,
we believe that there are at least three major elements to be
considered: literature review, data base review, and coordina-
tion with other agencies.
Literature Review. The literature review should include se-
lected professional journals both within and outside of the
environmental disciplines. For example, an engineering jour-
nal might provide an early indication of the introduction of a
new material; a policy journal might give an indication of
public policy that has environmental overtones. Because the
literature of possible interest is so immense, a means must be
designed to assure high efficiency searches.
The designers of this system should consider subscribing to
and reviewing
12 Gordon, Theodore J. and Jerome Glenn, Issues in Creating the Millen-
nium Project, UNU. October 1993. This report also conducted a "test run"
using an international panel to identify and evaluate some important future
environmental developments as well as to produce a forecast of
population size in several countries and regions. This work was funded by
OPPE.
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« A set of professional journals. Individual staff members
should be assigned the responsibility of reviewing and
periodically reporting on "early warning" items they find.
Some of these journals should deliberately go beyond the
immediate environmental disciplines; for example, jour-
nals that might be of interest include Technological Fore-
casting and Social Change and The Social Indicators
Network News.
On-line data bases such as Dialogue or ProQuest (a CD
ROM abstracting service). This will provide access to
and a means of quickly searching a much wider set of
publications. The use of carefully selected search terms
will improve the efficiency of this activity. When the
review of abstracts indicates a potentially important ar-
ticle, the full text can be obtained for detailed review.
"Unofficial" media such as selected computer bulletin
boards. Several existing bulletin boards or special interest
groups might be scanned periodically for information of
interest; in addition, as mentioned earlier, it might be
worthwhile to experiment with an Internet panel to be
created by EPA mat invites anyone with access to con-
tribute their observations about incipient changes or threats
to the environment.
Abstracts of presentations and papers delivered at sympo-
sia to identify new findings as early as possible. Other
potentially important sources include conference and
workshop summaries, funded research proposals, and
dissertation abstracts.
» Synthesizing publications. For example, Science News
publishes a weekly "news magazine of science;" Future
Survey publishes monthly abstracts of articles and books
dealing in some way with the future based on a continu-
ing review of the field. A recent issue of Futures Survey,
for example, uncovered three dozen or so newly pub-
lished books and papers dealing specifically with envi-
ronmental issues, many of them containing "early
warnings."
Analysis of Quantitative Data Bases, EPA staff could select
several sources of data collected by the EPA or other organi-
zations and analyze, track, and forecast these data as a further
source of early warning information. In particular:
At EPA, the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Pro-
gram (EMAP) is designed "to1 provide a comprehensive, inte-
grated national database of environmental conditions." EMAP
is a geographically oriented database designed to integrate
health data and geographic data. Many states use Geographic
Information Systems (GIS) for correlating and mapping natu-
ral resources and structures. Adding census information and
appropriate health or ecological data will provide a frame-
work for ongoing investigations of potential environmental
problems. The EMAP system might well be an important
source of quantitative information about future environmental
risks. For example, by correlating past changes with demo-
graphic, societal, and economic factors, forecasts of future
conditions could be made. Furthermore, these forecasts could
be prepared under the assumptions implicit in the scenarios
prepared in Task 1 A. This could result in a system capable of
tracking future environmental expectations and provide the
raw material for issue identification.
A second EPA program may also provide significant early
warnings to the proposed system. OPPE is considering whether
or not to establish a technology monitoring and forecasting
program that will review technologies in the design and
development phase to anticipate environmental consequences.
that might flow from their wider use. This activity could also
help establish issues to be monitored.
Two other examples of tracking systems that could be used in
a similar manner are
WorldWatch Institute's Vital Signs report on Trends
That are Shaping Our Future (Lester Brown, Chris-
topher Flavin, and Hal Kane, WorldWatch Institute,
1992). This report examines trends in food, agricul-
tural production, energy, the atmosphere, the envi-
ronment and other domains, and present brief essays
and charts depicting key indicators to back up their
assertions.
World Resources 1992-93, published by World Re-
sources Institute (Allen Hammond, ed. March, 1992).
This is the fifth in a biennial series and focuses on
sustainable development.
In addition, the Agency should consider setting up a system in
which selected quantitative data bases generated by EPA and
other organizations are periodically tapped and analyzed to
determine whether past trends are changing. Through regres-
sion analysis and other statistical techniques, the correlates of
change may be determined and scenario-based forecasts pro-
duced.
Coordination With Other Agencies. Formal and informal net-
works of planners within federal agencies have been formed
in the past; wherever the opportunity for participation exists,
EPA should continue to be represented or lead in the forma-
tion of such groups. The Inter-Agency Consortium on Emerg-
ing Issues represents a good example. It was constituted
particularly to facilitate the exchange of information about
"weak signals" in the operating environment that had been
detected by various government planners and forecasters,
including USGS, IRS, EPA, NASA, CIA, VA, USBM, and
DOD. EPA should investigate the possibility of revitalizing it.
Contact should also be established and maintained With inter-
national groups engaged in environmental planning such as
the Dutch Committee for Long Term Environmental Policy.
Finally, it may be useful to maintain contact with the 2050
Project of the World Resources Institute.
3.4 Task 4; Screening
In the next step, new ideas about future issues generated in
Tasks 1-3 are screened for relative importance. Screening is
necessary because the volume of issues to investigate will be
large. Therefore, the challenge in this task, is that issues of
high significance must be distinguished without losing sight
of others that may become important later (See Section 5.4
and Appendix B).
The screening step, Task 4, would employ eriteria_such as
Timing: How soon is this problem likely to emerge,
how important is early recognition, and how
rapidly can the problem be reversed?
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Novelty: To what extent is this a new problem that has
not been addressed adequately?
Scope: How extensivein terras of geography or
population affected, for exampleis this prob-
lem?
Severity: How intensive are the likely health, ecologi-
cal, economic, and other impacts of this prob-
lem, and are they reversible?
Visibility: How much public concern is this problem
likely to arouse?
Probability: What is the likelihood of this problem emerg-
ing, and necessitating a response, in the fu-
ture?
A utility matrix .(a standard operations research technique)
may be constructed to estimate a "score" for each issue. If this
approach is used, weights are assigned to each criterion; the
weights represent the perceived contribution of each to the
relative importance of an issue. A matrix is constructed with
the issues on the rows and the criteria in the columns,
Each issue is evaluated with respect to each criterion and the
judgments are recorded in the intersecting cells. Finally,
"scores" are produced for each issue by taking the weighted
sums across the rows. While the use of such an approach can
produce "scores" for each issue, these should be considered
only in a relative sense, to separate the top of the list from the
bottom. An example of this approach appears elsewhere in
this report (see Section 5.5.2.2 and Appendix E).
3.5 Task 5: Panel Review
The steps discussed so far include a list of potential issues
generated for Tasks 1-3. The issues came from the scenario
activity (Task 1), the look out panel (Task 2), and the scanning
process (Task 3). These issues are screened according, to the
criteria used in Task 4 to produce a list of top priority issues.
Now the key question is "are these prospective issues likely to
be real"? To answer this question for a subset of issues, it may
be necessary to convene a second panel in Task 5. The
members of this panel are different, and perhaps broader, than
those constituted in Task 1; they must have in-depth knowl-
edge of the specific issues under study and the ability to look
beyond today's world and imagine future circumstances im-
portant to the environment. In this Task, the panelists are
asked to comment on the issues about which they are expert
and on matters such as timing, scope, severity, visibility,
novelty and probability; that is, the criteria used to judge the
priority of issues, as well as underlying causes for the issue
and possible policies that could prove ameliorative.
3.6 Task 6: Analysis
Those issues surviving the scrutiny of Screening (Task 4) and/
or Panel Review (Task 5) flow to Task 6, Analysis. The
central objective of this task is to perform the required quanti-
tative assessments of key potential issues, to determine their
likely scope, severity, and probability as well as to define
candidate policies and their costs and benefits. In short, the
output of this task will represent an early evaluation of the
extent of the problem. This work would be accomplished by
staff, appropriate Scientific Advisory Committees, and out-
side consultants.
The analysis would be conducted against the backdrop of the
reference scenarios developed in Task 2, Some issues will
gain in intensity as a result of the scenario in which they are
placed, others will become less important.
Many different techniques should be employed in this task; to
name a few, econometric and cost benefit modeling, public
opinion polling, in depth interviewing, structural modeling
and other systems analytic techniques, and agent adaptive
modeling (of the sort being developed by Brookings Institu-
tion as part of the World Resource Institute's 2050 Project).
3.7 Task 7: Implementation
The burden of this task is to start the ball rolling toward
implementation of effective policies. If the output of the
monitoring system is simply a set of reports, a great opportu-
nity will have been missed. Instead the EFC envisions that the
process described here will have multiple dissemination and
action paths:
The look out process will produce information of value to
R&D planning: future issues will be identified by this
process that should trigger new research programs or
create changes in existing programs that are part of the
Agency's current or long-range and strategic research
plans.
« Long-range planning by the Agency may be affected by
Agency responses to these recommendations; hence the
process should be tied into Agency planning. The addi-
tion of a futures component should help the Agency to
take a more strategic approach to developing partnerships
and cooperative ventures with other relevant federal agen-
cies, and industrial, academic, and NGO stakeholders.
« Assessment endpoints should be developed for selected
issues to monitor changes and report their status so that
trends can be evaluated. A future-oriented "State of the
Environment" report can be issued in both hard copy and
on-line. A report of this sort will be publicly important
and a major dissemination medium.
» The process should provide fresh examples of risk assess-
ment issues and insights into emerging patterns of human
activities. Analysis of these activities and their potential
environmental impacts and the implications for human
exposure to stressors should contribute to risk reduction
plans within each program office and within each EPA
region.
These are just examples. A survey should be conducted of
Agency activities that could benefit from look out type infor-
mation; the process recommended here should become a
source of data for these activities.
EPA regions must also be actively involved in this process.
Regions are likely to encounter many early warning signs of
environmental problems through their own observations and
monitoring, and through public inquiries and citizen com-
plaints which they routinely handle. The scanning system,
look out panel, and scenario building process must be sensi-
17
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live to this information. Output from the futures analysis
process may assist the regions in communicating with the
public, businesses and institutions.
Furthermore, this process should have the ear of the highest
level of management at EPA. Quarterly briefings should be
prepared for management; this will not only be a vehicle for
transferring action recommendations, it will also help legiti-
mize this process within the organization and aid EPA plan-
ning and budgeting processes.
Finally, implementation of the early warning process carries
an obligation for EPA. If it is implemented, EPA must not
only provide a suitable budget for the process, but must be
prepared to act on early warnings that the process may evoke.
Some of these warnings will inevitably prove incorrect; nev-
ertheless, if expectations are raised without appropriate bud-
get and follow through, the level of disappointment will be
high, and the sense of missed opportunity will be disappoint-
ing and frustrating both to the public and to those who have
participated in the various steps. On the other hand if the
Agency can focus on this enterprise, a sense of dynamism,'
active problem avoidance and forward-looking policy making
may provide the Agency unifying cohesion and creative en-
ergy..
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4.0 Considerations for the Future
4.1 The Importance of Driving Forces in
Shaping Environmental Issues
Future environmental issues and hence, environmental qual-
ity, will be affected by the interaction of economic, techno-
logical, behavioral and other factors that stimulate change in
the condition and thought processes of everyday life. These
factors, known as "driving forces," contain possibilities for
both improving as well as diminishing environmental quality.
The loss of environmental quality and the wasteful consump-
tion of natural resources may influence the choices available
to a society for maintaining or changing its standard of living
and sustaining its citizens. Any attempt to anticipate or pre-
empt future environmental problems must take such driving
forces into account, for ultimately they establish the structure
within which policy options will be identified and imple-
mented. The potential environmental effects of several major
driving forces are discussed below.
4.1.1 Population Growth
High population .growth rates are likely to produce long-term
environmental degradation. Urban areas are likely to grow
even faster, multiplying the number of urban areas that ap-
proach the status of mega-cities, with inhabitants numbering
in the range of ten to twenty millions. The requirements for
adequate housing, water supply and sewerage infrastructure,
transportation, police and other services (which are currently
unsatisfactory in many American cities) are greater than at
any previous time in human history.
Population growth in cities and elsewhere is likely to increase
demand for energy, particularly for fossil fuel based energy
sources that are at the heart of the concern over global climate
change. Any effort to minimize environmental impacts related
to population, growth will require a variety of economic, legal,
institutional and technological changessuch as eliminating
subsidies that promote the use of fossils fuels and water
resources, privatizing state owned industries, providing farm-
ers with private property rights on the lands they till, and
improving the distribution of information on issues ranging
from agricultural to human fertility.
Population growth and its impact upon the environment is
very likely to exacerbate national security concerns in the
future. The following is an abbreviated scenario describing
this potential issue:
As population levels increase in some developing na-
tions, more ecologically sensitive areas are converted to
agricultural uses, large numbers of people move from
rural to urban areas, and in many cases fundamental
human needs are not met."Under these conditions, popu-
lation growth increases the number of refugees who
move from areas no longer able to sustain them. Instabil-
ity of governments follows.
4.1.2 Per Capita Income Growth and Energy Use
It is likely that real per capita income and the standard, of
living will increase in many developing countries of the
world. Currently, Latin America and the Asian Pacific Rim
economics are experiencing rapid economic growth. Over
time, economic growth is also .likely to occur in other Asian
nations and Central and Eastern Europe. This development,
coupled to population growth, will result in greater consump-
tion of energy and consumer goods. Although energy growth
need not be directly proportional to GNP growth, there is no
doubt energy use will rise dramatically in the developing
world and will soon dominate energy markets worldwide.
According to Department of Energy projections, energy de-
mand in developing nations is likely to reach 240 quadrillion
BTUs (quads) by the year 2010, an increase of over 40 percent
in 20 years. During the same period, U.S. energy demand is
projected to reach 105 quads, a 26 percent increase. By 2010,
developing nations could account for more than half of the
world's total energy demand. This level of growth is likely
even if per capita energy consumption in developing coun-
tries remains at much lower levels than in the industrialized
world.
The strategies employed to provide increased energy services
will have a profound impact on the environment. If countries
such as China and India choose to generate electricity with
conventional coal technologies with minimum controls, the
local, regional and global environmental impacts will be
substantial. On the other hand, strategies to achieve high
levels of efficiency and the use of cleaner fuels could greatly
ameliorate what otherwise would occursignificant environ-
mental deterioration.
4.1.3 Technological Change
Ongoing technological, change could create a variety of op-
portunities for environmental improvement, but whether this
occurs depends upon the soundness of the economy, creation
of regulatory incentives, and a cultural change that values
environmental protection. Technological change is accelerat-
ing at the highest rate in history and this rate of change
probably will increase.
Fundamental technological changes are underway and their
impacts can only be guessed. These include new systems of
manufacturing, accelerated rates of diffusion of new technolo-
gies, miniaturization* new information technologies, virtual
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reality, new imaging systems, biotechnology and genetic en-
gineering. We have already witnessed how technological
change alters workers' and managers' roles and opportunities
(positive and negative), reconfigures the setting where work
actually occurs, and confronts business, governmental and
social organizations with the need to alter their missions and
capabilities to retain their effectiveness,
The driving forces that will shape the future environment are
all interrelated. Higher rates of population and per capita
GNP growth are reasonable expectations for the future; to-
gether these forces will create new demands for energy .and
manufactured products. Over time, higher per capita income,
combined with improved education and an expanded range of
personal choices, should reduce population pressures. Tech-
nological choices could exacerbate or ameliorate environmen-
tal pressures and affect the rate of per capita consumption as
well. Cultural values and the manifestation of those values in
national policies could influence how effective institutions,
both national and international, will be in integrating environ-
mental values into commitments to protect environmental
quality.
Such driving forces are not immutable. All are subject to
public policy and personal choices. Family planning informa-
tion and other measures could reduce the rate of population
growth. Free trade and investment can affect per capita GNP
growth. Technology choices can affect the quality of the
environment if they introduce inherently less polluting pro-
cesses and products, or by providing the means for coping
with environmental problems (such as insufficient drinking
water supplies). Energy policies that encourage the use of
cleaner fuels and improved efficiency could reduce the envi-
ronmental impacts from energy use. These and other ex-
amples offer evidence that the environmental future can be
chosen.
At present, most environmental policies seek to limit the
impacts of technologies and products already in commerce;
regulation of this sort may be too cumbersome and inefficient
to keep pace with a dynamic marketplace. Perhaps the most
fundamental challenge, therefore, is for environmental values
to become part of the of the design process of future technolo-
gies so that technologies are intrinsically less risky. Creative
incentive systems incorporated into a regulatory framework
should induce industry to make choices that favor environ-
mental protection.
The central challenge of technologies of the future will be to
match the precision necessary to achieve a specific goal with
the flexibility required by the user. By recognizing these core
technological values, innovators, corporations, governments,
and consumers can begin to conceptualize how environmental
values might also be served through the process of technologi-
cal creation, chance and diffusion. Concepts regarding "De-
sign for the Environment" provide an initial glimpse at the
possibilities for integrating technological and environmental
goals, but such thinking is still in its infancy. More impor-
tantly, the structure of the creative process, and the myriad
number of decisions by individuals and organizations that
influence that process, must incorporate the promotion of
environmental values as one of the central reasons for techno-
logical change.
4.2 Environmental Issues Can Affect Foreign
Affairs
4.2.1 Issues That Cross Political Boundaries
In the next few decades, the world will face a unique problem.
Individual countries, now poor, but with every justification,
seeking to provide their citizens a better way of life, will
through their actions or inactions have the ability to affect the
environment of their neighbors and in many instances the
world. This potential stems from the drivers of population
growth and economic development and from concomitant
environmental issues that may include for example allocation
and uses of shared water resources, hazardous waste genera-
tion and disposal, and emission of greenhouse gasses and
particulate matter. All of these imply transborder impacts and
hence are potentially subjects of foreign policy. The goals of
development and environmental quality may easily come in
conflict. The issue is potentially divisive and has already been
stated as a developed/developing world dichotomy.
Yet all nations can benefit or suffer in the future from the
outcome of this issue. New models of cooperation must be
found. These should be based on equity and fairness. Neither
in fact nor perception can these models limit any developing
nation's ability to choose its own course of development. But
the models should include means for facilitating mutual un-
derstanding of the goals that may be in conflict, promote
understanding of the matters at stake, and arrange for the
efficient transfer of technical and financial assistance in the
interest of all parties, but with a particular sensitivity to the
needs of the developing country.
4.2.2 Environmental Quality as a Foreign
A/fairs Issue
There is a clear and important link between the need to protect
the environment and foreign policy. Opposing forces have
used environmental destruction as a major instrument of war.
Population growth, terrorism, and nuclear proliferation each
has major implications for public health and the environment.
The U,S, Congress enacted legislation over two decades ago
requiring the executive branch to recognize the "worldwide
and long-range character of environmental problems" in the
nation's foreign policy.
These examples reinforce the view that environmental issues
will comprise a large and growing element of U.S. foreign
policy. America will be faced with many more environmental
and natural resource-based security 'challenges in the future.
As a result, global environmental quality issues represent one
of the single most important strategic issues that will face the
U.S. at the dawn of a new century.
While the threat of global nuclear confrontation has dimin-
ished, the-threat of regional conflicts, terrorisnvand pollution
has increased. The potential future loss of critical environ-
mental resources, such as forests or the use of water bodies,
20
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may be as critical to the U.S. as the loss of access to imported environment; (2) identifies various risk contingencies and
oil today. The loss of either threatens the stability of econo- presents the criteria for undertaking economic, diplomatic, or
mies and governments because it limits their ability to sustain political action to respond to such contingencies; (3) assesses
their population. any necessary policy or treaty modifications to enable the
U.S. to achieve its environmentally related foreign policy
However, the U.S. government s thinking about the role of objectives; and (4) encourages all nations-through the UN or
environmental issues in foreign policy has emerged on an ad bnaterally-to incorporate consideration of environmental mat-
hoc basis. What is lacking is an umbrella framework that (1) tprs in ^ ford H initiatives.
articulates the nation s foreign policy objectives related to the
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5.0 Identification Selection of Issues- for the Future
5.1 OYerview of the Approach
Following the development of methodologies for the "top-
down" scenario approach and the "bottom-up" approaches of
environmental scanning and "lookout" panels, the EFC agreed
to act as a pilot Look-Out panel to evaluate the methodology
and develop a list of environmental issues of concern for the
future. No constraint was place on the fields that the proposed
environmental issues could cover, and they were not limited
to issues for which EPA has or might have mandates. The
EFC invited the Standing Committees of the SAB, their
members, and members of the EFC to submit possible envi-
ronmental issues of the future. The collected issues were
collated, refined, and analyzed for significance using a set of
criteria developed by the Specific Issues Group and modified
by the EFC. Issues selected, based on their significance, were
examined in further detail. Individual issues were consoli-
dated into a number of overarching issue areas that were used
by the EFC to illustrate the values of foresight methodologies.
5.2 Principal Limitations to the Pilot "Lookout
Panel" ' *
There are several important differences between the EFC
activities and the functioning of a continuing 'lookout panel."
The EFC not only collected and examined future issues, it
undertook, to a limited degree, the analytical tasks of screen-
ing, identifying, or generating issues by different methods,
activities that are beyond the defined scope of a typical,
continuing 'lookout panel." It also developed a set of screen-
ing criteria. It did not carry out the full task of analysis or of
identifying 'symptoms,' engaging in 'diagnosis,' and prescrib-
ing 'therapy,' as described in Section 3.0.
., - ***
There are several further limitations to the EFC's work. These
limitations were inherent in the Environmental Futures Project
itself and in its timing. For example, the effort made by the
EFC was, as it could only be, a onetime effort. This created
limitations that would not be encountered by a continuing
"lookout panel;" such a continuing panel could learn by
experience and could apply that learning over time. In this
case, the SAB did limited analysis of a few methods to define
future issues and the issues proposed were discussed only in
brief.
While the membership of the EEC was chosen to bring a
broad set of backgrounds and experiences to the Environmen-
tal Futures Project, it was not selected with the "lookout
panel" approach in mind; the approach had not been defined at
that time. In contrast, a continuing panel or panels, such as
those the EFC recommends for the Agency, should have
available a variety of participants with appropriate expertise
for evaluating trends in particular drivers, scanning for early
warning signals for environmental change or responses to
stress. Although the EFC had the advantage of numerous
excellent presentations by EPA staff and by outside experts
with many different, relevant backgrounds, it could only serve
effectively as a limited, pilot "lookout panel" to illustrate and
demonstrate some aspects of the concept.
The EFC had adequate staff assistance for its originally con-
ceived purpose and to complete its fundamental task. How-
ever, a continuing "lookout panel" would have to have a
support staff dedicated to futures work that would bring to
bear a degree of continuity and experience that could not be
provided on a onetime basis. For example, the Agency may
wish to establish "Look Out" Panels for scientific and engi-
neering disciplines and develop networks and procedures to
scan routinely for information and trends associated with
various driving factors or program components.
5.3 General Outcome of the Pilot Effort *
With all of these limitations, the pilot effort of the EFC was
therefore only a onetime, truncated simulation of an ongoing
"lookout panel" plus some additional activities. But the diver-
sity of talent and information actually available to the EFC
was such that the EFC's pilot effort resulted in (a) significant
suggestions and recommendations for the design and opera-
tion of continuing "lookout panels," properly staffed and
supported; (b) suggestions for approaches to be taken in
collating, selecting, and identifying significant future environ-
mental issues; and (c) suggestions for major environmental
issue areas of potential, future interest.
There is a key point with respect to the results reported in this
document and also with respect to the results of any ongoing,
continuing 'lookout panel." It must be recognized that any
issues identified as potentially important in the future are just
that; they should not be considered to be predictions of the
future. They can be of assistance in planning, but the flexibil-
ity to alter plans as a regular matter must always be main-
tained. Also, despite the qualifying statement that identifying
a potential issue and predicting the future are not the same
thing, the mere act of a "lookout panel" pointing to certain
issues or issue areas as being of potential future significance
can raise their visibility and, thus, their probability of becom-
ing prominent. EPA must bear this also in mind and be
prepared to dedicate the resources needed to deal with identi-
fied issues.
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5.4 Issue Collection and Refinement
5.4.1 Issue Collection
The Specific Issues Group (SIG) of the EFC asked all mem-
bers of the EFC and the participating Standing Committees to
submit lists of prospective environmental issues. The result
was a collection of ninety-four submissions from eleven sources
(Appendix A). This was the input data for the pilot, "bottom
up" effort. An actual, continuing "lookout panel" would and
should make use of a much wider selection of organizations
and individuals in seeking input issues and would therefore
collect a larger number of issues for the selection process. The
SAB constituted a reasonably wide and diverse source for this
limited, pilot exercise but, in viewing the results, this limita-
tion should be kept in mind.
As seen in Appendix A, the issues, as submitted, varied
greatly in content and specificity. Some were described in one
or two lines, others were described at some length, and the
topics varied widely. Many issues covered the same subject,
or at least different aspects of the same subject, and the next
step before any selections could be made had to be a refine-
ment of this submitted list by combining like issues.
5.4.2 Combining Issues
The first combination of related issues was made by the SIG
members, in concert. Discussions of that list with the EFC as
a whole resulted in further changes and modifications that
were incorporated in the final list of refined issues, which
were restated as potential future problems given in Appendix
B, with captions added to identify each problem briefly. This
is the list of problems used in the selection process. The
ninety-four issues of Appendix A have been reduced, by
combination, to fifty issues which were restated as'refined
issues in Appendix B. All issue selections were conducted
using either the list of collected issues in Appendix A or the
first list of refined issues in Appendix B. All further refer-
ences to refined issues or potential issues in this section refer
to the list in Appendix B.
In undertaking the task of combining topics it became clear
that issues may be combined in many ways and to many
degrees of coverage. Over-combination can lead to "issues"
that are so large that they cannot be dealt with without
redividing them into smaller, more pointed issues (not neces-
sarily the same as the original issues that were combined to
form the too-large "issues"). Similarly, under-combination
can lead to "issues" that are merely different aspects of a
larger issue and which are better dealt with in that larger form.
An issue, to be useful, needs to have a specific point "at
issue," something needing resolution. Some of the
"overarching" issues identified later in this report are desig-
nated as "issue areas" (or problem areas in the overview
report) rather than, simply, as "issues;" each is an issue, but to
address them practically some subdivision is needed.
5.4.3 Consolidating Issues
In Appendix B the issues are shown classified by general
subject matter using, for the most part, conventional classifi-
cations: Human Health Effects and Human Health Risk As-
sessment, Ecological Effects, Their Assessment and Manage-
ment, Radiation: Health And Environmental Assessment and
Management, and so forth. For the purpose of issue selection,
classification of the issues is not necessary. However, classifi-
cation is useful in two respects: as a convenience to the user to
bring a degree of order to a list of issues and to enable a
"lookout panel" to determine if there are important classifica-
tions not represented.
That there are many ways to classify issues became apparent
in the discussions among the SIG members - just as there are
many ways both to combine and to subdivide issues. One
possible alternative classification is shown in Appendix C
where the issues of Appendix B have been reclassified by
sources of stressors. This classification system- and others
with different logical bases-could have served to organize the
refined issues, for the purposes of this report, as well as the
one used. Moreover, such ^classifications can serve to further
determine if there are any additional areas of classification for
which no issues have been developed and so to stimulate
thinking in these areas. The two alternative classification
methods offered here are but two examples of the many ways
in which issues might be classified (for example, by potential
mitigating actions). The selection of a preferred method, if
such exists, should await further experience on the part of a
continuing "lookout panel." Examples of attributes a preferred
classification scheme might be based on are mutual exclusiv-
ity of the classifications and the ability of the classification
scheme to stimulate broad perspective.
Using an issue classification scheme can be especially useful
in the collection of issues. Developing a variety of possible
classifications and offering them to the prospective contribu-
tors to consider can be conducive to wider thought on their
part, and these same classification schemes can be of assis-
tance to a 'lookout panel" in ensuring completeness of cover-
age.
5.5 Criteria and Processes for Selecting
Potentially Significant Issues from a List of
Issues
Many processes are possible for selecting especially interest-
ing or significant issues from a particular set of issues. Briefly,
processes can be entirely qualitative, entirely quantitative, or
some combination of the two. In any case, a high degree of
subjectivity is involved; some kind of agreed-upon mecha-
nism for reaching agreement on the issues selected is needed.
Possible mechanisms include reaching a tacit (or explicit)
consensus or using some more formal voting process.
5.5.1 Issue-Selection Criteria
Any process for assigning priority to issues will be facilitated
by having a set of agreed-upon criteria to bring consistency to
the evaluation. The SIG therefore developed a set of. issue-
selection criteria. These criteria were presented to, discussed
with, and modified by the EFC. The resulting six major
criteria are Timing, Novelty, Scope, Severity, Visibility, and
Probability. These and their use are described in detail in
Appendix D and the reader is advised to read this more
detailed description of what is meant by each criterion before
23
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attempting to use the criteria to evaluate issues. Brief defini-
tions of each are given in Table 1.
The first five criteria characterize the impact of an issue,
supposing that it will in fact develop into a problem, whereas
the last one is predictive and describes the likelihood that an
issue will, in fact, develop into a problem and need to be dealt
with within the future time frame of interest. The last crite-
rion, Probability, should be assessed for purposes of issue
selection as though the selection of an issue will not affect the
probability of its coming into prominence.
In selecting these criteria, the criteria used by a number of the
Standing Committees in their work were examined for their
applicability to the wide variety of issues collected. In addi-
tion, two basic principles were applied: (1) that the major
criteria should be as few in number as possible in the interests
of ease and certainty of application and (2) that to the extent
possible the major criteria should be independent of each
other and capable of discrete, clear definitionand, where
dependence must occur, it should be explicitly recognized.
Experience with a list of criteria such as this, on the part of a
continuing "lookout panel," could and should result in modifi-
cations to it that make it more definitive and useful.
5.5.2 Issue-Selection Processes
Both the qualitative and the quantitative approaches to using
the issue-selection criteria to select potentially significant
future issues were briefly explored by the EFC.
5.5.2.1 Qualitative Selection Processes
The qualitative use of the criteria should, in a continuing issue
identification system, involve in-depth discussions of each
issue against the criteria and against other-issues, the develop-
ment of lists of possible selections (again, with explicit referr
ence to the criteria) and, finally, the narrowing down of the
lists into one list using either the arrival at a tacit or explicit
consensus or some form of voting to do so.
A much curtailed process involving some discussion followed
voting (but with little discussion of the results aimed at
reaching a consensus) was used in this pilot effort, recogniz-
ing that the validity of identified issues resulting from this
kind of simplified process is highly uncertain. The process
was used at two different stages of the development of the
pilot study: first, at a stage when the nearly complete list of
collected issues (Appendix A) was available and known to all
EFC members, before the first refined list of issues was
completed (Appendix B), but at a time when the issue-selec-
tion criteria were nearly complete and were familiar to all; and
second, at a stage when the first refined list and the criteria
were in virtually final form and had undergone significant
discussion.
The first attempt was an effort to obtain some sense of
whether there was any sort of natural consensus on issue
selection. In this attempt, the EFC members were asked to
submit their individual selections of potentially significant
issues from the list of submitted issues. Seven self-selected
EFC members responded. Table 2 lists the submitted issues,
by number (as in Appendix A), cited by at least four of the -
seven respondents.
While this simple process is inadequate to give a definitive
selection of potentially significant future issues, it does sug-
gest some issue-subjects that need to be analyzed further,
along with others, in the preparing a list of issues to be
highlighted.
In the second attempt to sound out the preferences of the EFC
the nearly complete first list of refined issues (Appendix B)
and the nearly final issue-selection criteria were available to
all and had undergone significant discussion. The voting took
place at the August 2-3, 1994, EFC meeting with each mem-
ber present (a total of eleven) being asked to list their top
issues from the list of refined issues. Only seventeen issues
received no votes, nineteen received one vote each, six re-
ceived two votes apiece, and eight received more than two
votes each. This last set of eight issues is shown in Table 3.
Only two issues received relatively large numbers of citations,
numbers 29 (nine citations) and 25 (five citations). The sub-
ject matters of these two issues were .among the subject
matters of the most-cited issues in the first selection as well
(Table 2), 3-3 and 3-12, each of which received five citations
out of a total number of seven respondents. The remainder of
the issues in Table 3 have slight to no relation to issues in
Table 2.
There are several possible reasons for the differences in
outcomes of the two selections, though there is no. clear way
to decide which reasons truly explain the differences. One is
the fact that the second group was not the same as the first
one; it did not contain only the same members and it was not
self-selected. Two different groups can be expected to arrive
at different results in this kind of activity. A second is that the
issues, themselves, had been refined (combined, categorized,
and reduced in number by almost a factor of two) between the
times the two selections took place and thus many, had some-
what different content. A third is the fact that a significant
amount of discussion and of learning had taken place between
the two selections and during the final selection process. And,
finally, emphasis had been given in the EFC discussions to
two different kinds of issues: issues for which there were
evident trends and abundant evidence today and issues which
were mere "dots on the horizon," for which there are only
indications and weak signals, today, but no generally agreed,
current trends visible, and which, on closer approach, may
either grow and solidify or disappear. Since one of the func-
tions of a "lookout panel" is to identify the "dots on the
horizon" so they can be monitored, it may be that the respon-
dents in the second case were more diligent in including at
least some of this kind of issue in their selections.
There is a recognized danger in voting face-to-face, during
discussions, rather than anonymously and with opportunity
for reflection. The danger is that in a face-to-face situation,
particularly persuasive or emphatic panel members can un-
duly sway a vote that, with the opportunity to reflect and to
vote anonymously, might have been different. Voting_proce-_
dures for a continuing system need to be carefully defined to
avoid this type of possible bias. On the other hand, without
24
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Table 1. Definitions of the Six Major Issue-Selection Criteria
Major Issue-Selection Criteria , Definition
1 Timing deals with when an issue will become important in the future period considered and the
importance of early recognition of an issue in resolving aspects of the issue, including, especially, its
uncertainties.
2 Novelty involves not only the consideration of how new an-issue is, perse, but also whether there is a
newly acquired perception of the amount of attention an issue requires versus the attention it is getting,
Assessing Novelty depends to a degree on Timing, which should therefore be assessed first.
3 , Scope is an extensive criterion of magnitude dealing with the breadth or extent of the impacts of an
issue with respect to factors such as geographic range, population affected, ecosystems affected,
temporal scope, socioeconomic factors, legislative and/or regulatory activity, and so forth.
4 Severity is an intrinsic and/or intensive criterion of magnitude dealing with the depth or intensity of
impact, or the seriousness of the consequences of an issue with respect to factors such as physical,
health, ecological, socioeconomic, legislative and/or regulatory, and welfare factors. In particular, the
degree of irreversibility of the-effects involved in, or of the consequences of, the issue are important in
determining Severity.
5 Visibility refers to the degree to which an issue is or can become visible as a public issue: to influential
groups, to the media, to the political establishment, to the public as a whole, considering its scientific,
technical and/or economic plausibility, its political appeal, and the recognition it is likely to receive by
special groups. Visibility is dependent on components of the first four issues.
6 Probability assesses the likelihood that the Issue will need to be addressed. It is highly dependent on
the first five criteria. It brings together into a single statement of probability the probability that the issue
will arise and need to be dealt with because of scientific, technical,, or other similarly definable reasons,
whether or not it is publicly visible, and the probability that the issue will arise because, whatever its
scientific or technical basis, it has strong public and/or political appeal.
Table 2. First Selection of Issues from the First List of Submitted Issues (Appendix A)
Submitted
Issue No. Brief Description of Submitted Issue Content
1-4 Risk of total, possibly synergistic, air burden growth, requiring integrated management.
1-6 " Global importance of persistent toxic emissions increases.
3-1 Importance of sustainable ecosystem management Increase's.
3-3...,* Deterioration of the "health of the oceans progresses.
3-12 Conflicting environmental and land use pressures grow; land use becomes a major, global issue.
7-8 More sustainable agricultural practices needed because of loss of habitat, loss of productive
agricultural land, contamination of ground and surface water.
25
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Table 3. Second Selection of Issues from the First List of Refined Issues (Appendix B) - Cited by More Than Two of Eleven Members of the
EFC
Refined
Issue No,
16
21
25
29
32
.38
Brief Description of Refined Issue*
. Emphasis is placed on multiple endpoints and multiple exposures requiring new risk manage-
ment criteria (3-7, plus elements of 4-2,10-1).
Technology to control newly recognized pathogens in drinking water is found to be inadequate
(6-9 plus elements of 8-3).
Animal and human health (e.g., reproductive capacity) and ecosystems are adversely affected
by global dispersion of estrogen-mimicking chemicals (3-2,5-1,7-4).
The need is recognized to evaluate unregulated, untested agents (existing and newly intro
duced) and their unforeseen environmental impacts (7-10,10-1).
Increasing environmental pressures require improved land use practices (3-12, 4-4, 6-2, 7-1, 7-
2, 7-3,7-8 plus elements of 9-5,9-7).
"Health" of the oceans deteriorates further (3-3,10-2).
The quality and quantity of surface and ground water diminishes as a result of inefficient use and
contamination (5-9,7-13, 8-3).
Inefficient uses of energy for transportation and other uses has growing adverse impacts on
environmental quality (3-13, 7-12).
'Numbers in parentheses are those of the submitted issues in Appendix A used in forming each refined issue.
some group discussions, a single member with a particularly
good grasp of an issue may not be given an adequate hearing
in reaching a group consensus.
In any case, the two lists, if they had been derived by carefully
defined voting procedures and by more rigorously held dis-
cussions, are the kind of product that would form a suitable
basis for the further in-depth panel discussions needed to
arrive at a single, final, agreed-upon list. There was not the
opportunity for such discussions to take place in this onetime
effort, so the selection process was not carried farther along
this track to a definitive conclusion.
5.5.2.2 Quantitative Selection Processes
With a set of issue-selection criteria in hand, quantitative
weighing of the criteria, and the calculation of some kind of
overall weight or score for each issue, is a possibility for
selecting the issues most in keeping with the criteria. There
are real advantages but also real pitfalls in using such a
system. The fact that there are pitfalls should not deter anyone
from using quantitative methods; it is necessary to be aware of
them and allow for them, however.
Among the advantages are(a) the fact that all criteria are taken
into account in some kind of reasonably consistent, systematic
fashion as compared to qualitative approaches; (b) the fact
that members of a group or panel can be mutually "calibrated"
so that the numerical weights selected by different members
of the group have consistent, relative meanings so that these
weights can be used to reach a group consensus on the relative
rankings of the issues; and (c) the fact that a numerically
based order of preference is obtained among the issues con-
sidered.
Among the pitfalls is the possibility that the system selected
may not reflect the decision process or, even, some fundamen-
talbut possibly not knownrules for combining criteria.
Also, the weights or scores are, themselves, usually subjective
values, subject to great differences from one individual to
another or from one time to another for the same individual.
Generally speaking, scoring methods will distinguish between
the most important and the least important issues. The possi-
bility of miss-ranking issues arises when their level of impor-
tance is close together. It is in this latter situation that sensitivity
to changes in individual scores can be most acute.
In the final analysis, the results of any quantitative, scoring
method need careful examination, a "reality check," and
changes may need to be made in the results accordingly.
Appendix E contains a detailed example of the use of a
scoring matrix prepared, as an example of such a method, by
one member of the EFC. The same member selected all values
used in this example so that the results do not represent, in any
sense, any kind of consensus, however preliminary, of the.
EFC.
In this example, the first five criteria were scored from one to
five (lowest to highest importance or weight) while the sixth
criterion, Probability, was scored from zero to one-hundred.
Each criterion was, itself, assigned a weight for reasons given
in Appendix E. The product of a criterion score and the weight
for the same criterion was the weighted score for that crite-
rion; the sum of the weighted scores of-the first five criteria
was the Impact Score for the issue considered; and the sum of
the Impact Score and the weighted score for probability was
the Total Score for diat same issue. Table 1 in Appendix E
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gives the Impact Scores, the weighted probability scores, and
the Total Scores for each of the fifty refined issues listed in
Appendix B. Table 2 in Appendix E gives the same informa-
tion in order of their Total Scores, from the highest to the
lowest. Figure 1 in Appendix E shows a plot of the weighted
probability score (Probability) against Impact Score (Impact)
for the fifty issues. And Table 2 in Appendix E shows a bar
chart of the Total Scores for the fifty issues, from the highest
to the lowest.
As seen by examining the results in Appendix E, the top
issues selected in this example are considerably different from
those in either of the two selections already discussed and,
since they represent the views of only one individual, they do
not approximate in any way what might have been obtained
from a carefully arrived-at consensus of the EFC.
The example does illustrate the method, however, and while it
uses only one individual's inputs, it is apparent that consensus
inputs from the entire EFC could have been used equally well
had it been possible to arrive at them. Alternatively, the same
scoring method could have been applied to inputs from each
of the EFC members arid the results compared and discussed
so as to reach a consensus set of selected issues.
5.6 Derivation of a Set of Overarching Issues
Areas
With the collection of submitted issues in Appendix A in
hand, the issue-selection criteria well developed, the first
refined issue list in Appendix B partially complete, and the
first selection-by-vote (seven respondents) completed, an ex-
amination was undertaken to identify major or overarching
issue areas evident among the specific issues. A list of seven-
teen such overarching issue areas (Appendix G) was prepared
for discussion with the entire EFC at their July 13, 1994,
meeting with the result that the seventeen areas were reduced
to a total of eleven. Table 4 summarizes these eleven
overarching issue areas; Appendix F gives detailed descrip-
tions of them.
At the EFC's August 2-3, 1994, meeting these eleven issues
were further discussed, with all of the collected and refined
issues (or potential problems) in hand. From these discussions
there then emerged the final five problem areas described in
Section II.5 of "Beyond the Horizon," (see EPA-SAB-EC-95-
007). These five problem areas are described in Section H.5 as
though they already exist to make the point of the problem are
as clear. However, it is not predicated that these issue areas
will in fact emerge in preference to others (the actual future
remains uncertain); they are given as examples of the kinds of
problem areas which, given the signs discernible now, might
emerge and which are worthy of further consideration along
with other possible problem areas. The five issues areas are:
(1) Sustainability of Terrestrial Ecosystems, (2) Noncancer
Human Health Effects, (3) Total Air Pollutant Loadings, (4)
Nontraditional Environmental Stressors, and (5) Health of the
Oceans.
5.7 Further Discussions and Recommendations
In the pilot effort, issues were collected from a variety of
sources, as described, to whom no instructions had been given
other than to ask them to submit issues they thought might
have future significance. In the actual operation of a "lookout
panel," information intended to stimulate and widen the
thoughts of respondents should be supplied. One suggestion is
to supply different sets of issue classifications as a stimulus;
another is to supply brief descriptions of a variety of drivers
and scenario elements. In any case, the intention of supplying
such information is not to focus or channel the thinking of
respondents but to broaden and stimulate it. Also, a much
broader set of respondents should be used than was used in the
pilot study.
The EFC's pilot effort shows that, given the high levels of
good will, dedication and patience that the members exhibited
in this case, an ongoing, continuing system, with the neces-
sary support, is capable of collecting, generating, refining, and
assessing potential future issues against a set of issue-selec-
tion criteria.
The time the EFC dedicated to this pilot effort was large, as a
percentage of the time they had to work together starting at
their June 15-16, 1994, meeting, but it was inadequate to
complete the task of reaching a true consensus on the selec-
tion of issues from the list of refined issues. Separately from
this effort, however, but building on its results, they were able
to reach a consensus on a small set of overarching issue areas
(see Appendix F).
It is apparent that members of ongoing, continuing panels will
have to dedicate substantial time to the effort, at least at the
start, to bring satisfactory closure to their selections at any
point in time. Once established, and with an experienced
support staff in place, the time should decrease although it
will still represent a substantial commitment for each member
and for the staff. With good background preparation and some
preliminary meetings, well planned consensus-building meet-
ings to implement combined, qualitative and quantitative
approaches (preceded by considerable E-mail or FAX com-
munication) of as much as .two days or even more in length
may well be necessary to complete issue selection. Part of the
time, at least at the start, will turn out to be devoted to a
"calibration" of the panel members against each other, either
through a deliberate or an incidental process. Doing this
"calibration" deliberately will save time and produce a better
result.
For issue selection (or potential problem selection) itself, a
combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches is
best. Neither is satisfactorily certain, by itself, of producing a
reasonable selection of issues and each provides a kind of
check on the other.
Developing and using a quantitative approach first (one possi-
bility is described in Appendix E) as a means for obtaining an
initial preference ranking of a set of refined issues, followed
by an in-depth examination and discussion of the ranking so
obtained may prove to be the most practical and credible
approach. Arriving at quantitative rankings might be accom-
plished in one of two ways: (1) devote a working session to
'reaching consensus on the scores to be used to calculate a
single ranking to be discussed or (2) have each member
generate scores and, thus, individual rankings and then
devote a working session to discussing these rankings to
arrive at a consensus ranking. While the first step of the latter
approach can be carried out without meeting face-to-face, the
27
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Table 4. Initial Set of Eleven Overarching Issue Areas Identified by the EFC as Possibly Becoming Important in the Future
(Not listed in any preferred order) ,
What possible contingency plans should EPA design to address these possible future conditions:
a. Energy choices, worldwide, increase the total loadings and adverse impacts of pollutants.
b. Global warming becomes a reality and leads to global and local climate changes and other complex consequences.
c. Increasing environmental pressures require new integrated land use practices that allow for the diversity of needs and interests.
d. The "health" of the oceans deteriorates further and leads to a wide range of. serious, adverse consequences.
e. Over-exploitation of natural resources leads to ecosystem and human welfare harm and lack of sustainability.
f. Introduction of exotic species and the favoring of specific species leads to significant threats to endemic species and to overall biodiversity.
g. Failure to maintain a healthy biosphere leads to environmental degradation to the point of preventing the achievement of sustainability and
of seriously threatening human welt-being.
h. The advent and application of new scientific discoveries about the causes of adverse human health effects, and of extensive data banks,
leads to radically new methods of human health risk assessment and management and to new opportunities for, and controversies in, risk
management.
I increased energy production and use coupled with inefficiencies in its production and use and with inadequately considered energy
production alternatives lead to a wide range of adverse environmental impacts.
j. Failure to monitor, assess, and catalog previously unaccounted-for sources of stressors leads to unexpected adverse impacts on human
health and ecosystems.
k. Failure to respond to the national and international expansion and growth of the concept of environmental equity leads to disproportionate
adverse impacts on significant segments of the world's population.
examination of numerous rankings may prove more difficult
than arriving at a consensus on scores. In either case, having a
small subgroup of the entire "lookout panel" suggest appropri-
ate scores, with the reasons can, therefore, assist in bringing
the remainder of the process to completion more easily.
However the process is carried out, it will take a considerable
commitment of time.
In reaching a consensus on issue selection, ranking should be
viewed as a tool for sorting issues for which there is some
consensus; however, it should not be overemphasized so as to
replace the worth of single, well-founded voices.
An important point in establishing any ongoing panel is for
the members, as they join the panel, to be given a thorough
understanding of what it is they will be expected to do and
what kind of a commitment they are making; and, if the
commitment causes them concern, they can then decide,
early, not to make it. In this regard, the operations of ongoing
panels for future issue identification and selection are similar
to the operations of the committees involved in doing com-
parative risk ranking and involve similar commitments. Al-
though in each case the members must bring to bear their own
expertise in arriving at a result, there are many areas in which
scientific or other data, and proof, are minimal or lacking and
the members must be committed to using judgment and to
arriving at consensus by one means or another. In the case of
identifying potential future issues, whose difficulties are at
least as well supported by present trends or by a consideration
of clearly related and understood driving forces, there are
difficulties that arise when all that are available are weak
signals that something may be beyond the horizon. It is
especially important to focus on such cases since, to fail to
pick one up is to fail to identify just the sorts of surprises that
a "future issues" effort is supposed to identify. On the other
hand, responding to every weak signal can be misleading.
This is a difficult area, and members must understand, before
they join in a "future issues" effort, that they will be faced
with such possibilities and that these are at the very heart of
identifying potentially important issues.
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6.0 Highlights of the Standing Committee Activities
The Environmental Futures Project includes the efforts of
seven related panels, working from a common charge, but
with varying methods, levels of effort, and approaches. Each
panel began with brainstormlng sessions to define critical
trends, forces, events and/or uncertainties that would have
significant impacts on environmental quality or EPA and the
nation's ability to deal with environmental quality problems
.over the next 5-30 years. Each Standing Committee focused
on a principal area of their expertise drinking water, eco-
logical systems, treatment technologies, exposure assessment,
radiation, and air quality. Following that exercise, each group
followed its own path to develop issues and recommenda-
tions.
In some cases, one or more members of a Standing Committee
developed papers to describe the significance of a future event
or the implications of the trends on environmental issues of
the future,
6.1 Drinking Water Committee Report (EPA-
- SAB-DWC-95-002)
The Drinking Water Committee (DWC) examined the trends
in water resources demands, water treatment technologies,
and drinking water quality and their likely impacts on the
country's ability to provide safe drinking water in the future.
The Committee offered five major recommendations:
1. Improve the management of renewable water resources.
Greater emphasis must be given to improving the manage-
ment of existing renewable water supplies. A national man-
agement program should include (1) prevention of further,
water supply deterioration and better management of land-use
and forestry practices; (2) improvement of our ability to
capture a larger proportion of renewable water supplies, in-
cluding wetland protection and extension; (3) implementation
of water recycling and conservation practices to improve
efficiencies of water use, including lining of irrigation canals,
installation of more efficient'plumbing, and consideration of
reallocation of water rights.
2. Support the consolidation of small distribution systems.
Consolidation of small water systems should be encouraged to
improve the overall quality of water and provide the necessary
revenue to implement treatment technologies now available to
the larger systems. The drive toward consolidation should
take advantage of the replacement of distribution systems that
will be necessary in the near future in many communities.
3. Support changes in treatment technologies.
The traditional concepts of water treatment and distribution
can be expected to change substantially in the future as a
result of the changing profiles of contaminants of concern. A
number of promising technologies will need to be improved
and implemented, including membrane treatment. In addition,
methods will need to be developed for stabilizing water in
distribution systems that do not depend on maintenance of a
residual oxidant in the distribution system.
4. Accelerate research to spur advances in risk assess-
ment methodologies for both chemical and microbio-
logical contaminants of water.
Modifications of current water disinfection treatments to mini-
mize chemical risks in the drinking water supply must con-
sider the relative risks, i.e., the magnitude of microbial risks
that may be introduced as a result of the changes, as well as
the creation of other disinfection by-products. Substantial
research is needed in risk assessment methodology for both
chemical and microbial risks. Without such research, large
public investments for changes in drinking water treatment
plants may be made on an inadequate and possibly incorrect
scientific and technical basis.
5. Establish a surveillance or alert system for emerging
waterborne pathogens.
The almost certain changes in water treatment and distribution
systems in the next decades and the increased consolidation
into larger systems for efficiency of control and delivery of
water, pose the very real danger of the generation and trans-
mission to large populations of heretofore unknown microor-
ganisms that may pose serious health risks. A surveillance or
alert system to detect these risks early should be put in place.
6.2 Ecological Processes and Effects Committee
Report (EPA-SAB-EPEC-95-003)
The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee (EPEC)
contributed to the Environmental Futures Project by examin-
ing key future developments and then examining the ecologi-
cal consequences of human activities. The Committee based
its procedure on the principles developed In Reducing Risk:
Setting Priorities and Strategies for Environmental Protection
(EPA-SAB-EC-90-Q21) and the Framework for Ecological
Risk Assessment (EPA/630/R-92/001).
The conceptual model for futures analysis posed by the Com-
mittee provides a methodology for developing and then evalu-
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ating future scenarios by (1) making assumptions about driv-
ing forces (the ultimate causes of change); (2) identifying the
interactions between drivers (ultimate causes of change), stres-
sors, and ecological endpoints via development of interaction
matrices; (3) delineating the causes and effects of environ-
mental changes; and (4) exploring ways in which manage-
ment actions can avoid, influence, or mitigate environmental
risks. Comparing a series of scenarios can help to define "no
regrets" actions which provide benefits under a wide range of
scenarios, as well as encourage the development of a strategic
vision, and promoting nimble responses to unforeseen events.
The Committee evaluated the approach for futures analysis by
applying it to scenarios of energy development and consump-
tion in the United States. These scenarios (Very Low Cost
Energy versus Very High Cost Energy) illustrate how the
approach can be applied to identify the key components of
environmental problems and how risks can be managed. This
approach represents ail important facet of the scenario analy-
sis method recommended in Section 3 of this Annex.
Based on its study, EPEC presented key conclusions, summa-
rized below, which the Agency should consider as guidance
for developing a process for assessing future environmental
problems. They also cited examples of potential future prob-
lems to illustrate the methodology, including several prob-
lems cited in Reducing Risk.
1. The conceptual model for futures analysis, which com-
bines the use of scenarios and the analytical framework for
ecological risk assessment (ecorisk framework) provided a
formalized approach to assess future environmental risks.
2. This approach when applied to two scenarios making
assumptions about the cost of energy, revealed possible
ecological consequences that probably would not have
been determined through an unstructured brainstorming.
For example, availability of Very Low Cost En-
ergy (via technological breakthrough in fusion
energy and/or plasma energy) may result in in-
creased fragmentation of habitats because very
cheap energy could overcome natural constraints
such as water availability allowing arid regions to
be opened up to development. Light pollution and
noise pollution may increase and adversely impact
ecological resources. Thus a future with extremely
low cost energy may not necessarily mean a green
future.
3. Attempting to identify the ecological consequences of the
two energy scenarios demonstrated to the Committee the
values of examining futures lies in the process rather than
the results of the analysis. .
The process makes participants think about 'risk
management options affecting drivers, stressors
and ecosystems at risk. The ecosystem manage-
ment paradigm, while still evolving, embodies
elements based on our current understanding of
ecosystem structure and^ function, including the
need to comprehensively consider ecosystem prod-
ucts and services and the importance of ecosystem
health to human actions and policies. Ecosystem
management requires a larger scale and longer-
term perspective than typical human planning
scales. However, management goals formulated
on a broad scale must be implemented on a "local"
scale based on ecological management units.
4. The EPEC scenario/futures analysis exercise reaffirmed
the conclusions in Reducing Risk that national ecological
risks are dominated by larger-scale and longer-time issues,
including global climate change and habitat alteration,
ozone depletion and introduction of exotic species.
The adverse impacts from global .climate change
and stratospheric ozone depletion were described
by EPEC as "Stressors Causing Effects in the
Longer-Term (30+ years)." Stressors Causing Ef-
fects in the Near-term (0-30 years) included habi-
tat alteration and destruction and the introduction
of exotic species.
6.3 Environmental Engineering Committee
Report (EPA-SAB-EEC-95-004)
The Environmental Engineering Committee (EEC) chose four
important issues relating to technology that may emerge in the
future. Drivers, scenarios, consequences, and recommenda-
tions for Agency actions were developed for each. The EEC
also developed an approach by which the EPA could regularly
scan the horizon for future issues. An abbreviated version of
this approach was used successfully by the EEC to conduct a
second search for potential emerging issues.
The four issues developed in detail concerned (1) fostering
environmental protection while helping to assure sustained
industrial development in an increasingly competitive manu-
facturing economy;( 2) responding to increasing societal pres-
sures for the redevelopment of industrial sites and remediation
of land; (3) preparing to address threats posed to human health.
and natural resources by transient phenomena; and (4) cor-
recting insufficiencies in core technical competencies that are
needed to address future environmental challenges.
Based on its experience in identifying these issues, the EEC
developed a suggested methodology for continuing work by
EPA: (1) establishing lookout panels in the areas of technol-
ogy, ecology, environmental health, and socioeconomics; (2)
continual scanning of their fields by the panels; (3) collecting
these observations and referring them back to all panelists for
comment; (4) screening of candidate issues using agreed upon
criteria; (5) analysis of surviving issues; and (6) recommend-
ing near-term actions based on projected futures. This meth-
odology forms an important part of the system recommended
in Section 3 of this Annex. .
Using a short form of this lookout panel, the EEC identified
eight additional issues which EPA should consider evaluating.
These issues relate to (1) fossil fuel depletion; (2) industrial
accidents and/or terrorist activities; (3) deterioration of urban
infrastructure;. (4) high-cost benefit of some environmental
management strategies; (5) reservoirs of environmental con-
taminants; (6) pathogens in drinking water; (7) electromag-
netic radiation; and (8) industrial ecology.
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Based upon its study, the EEC prepared four recommenda-
tions for EPA:
1. EPA policy recommendations concerning clean technolo-
gies should be carefully constructed and balanced to ben-
efit both the environment and U.S. industrial
competitiveness.
2 EPA should ensure the development and use of appropri-
ate technology to enable the redevelopment of urban con-
taminated industrial sites and remediated land.
3. EPA should strengthen its capabilities and readiness to
address potential environmental consequences of natural
disasters associated with transient events such as riverine
floods and violent regional storms, in the face of trends in
population growth and land use.
4. EPA should systematically identify and examine the es-
sential and distinct scientific and engineering capabilities
(core competencies) needed to address technical aspects of
its present and anticipated future mission and strengthen
them where needed.
6.4 The Indoor Air Quality and Total Human
Exposure Committee Report (EPA-SAB-
IAQC-95-005)
The Indoor Air Quality and Total Human Exposure Commit-
tee (IAQTHEC) studied opportunities for advances in the
science and art of human exposure assessment, and opportuni-
ties that such advances could offer EPA and the nation for
improving risk rankings and risk reduction management deci-
sions. Human mortality and morbidity related to causal fac-
tors in the environment may not become manifest until decades
after the exposures to environmental risk factors. Thus, early
recognition of the nature and extent of such exposures can
provide opportunities for prevention of adverse effects through
regulations and guidance to the public designed to reduce
exposures.
The IAQTHEC recognized that technical bases for quantum
advances in capabilities for exposure assessment exist in
certain critical areas. These are
microsensor and microprocessor technologies. The an-
ticipated advances in these technologies should make it
possible to measure and record personal exposures to a
wide'Variety of airborne toxicants at low environmental
levels with relatively inexpensive and compact badges
for persona] monitoring as well as for fixed position
monitors in public spaces and around pollution sources.
biomarkers of exposure. Very sensitive biomarkers of
exposure to environmental toxicants are being developed
at a rapid pace, and will provide a basis for assessing
personal exposures via all routes of entry. Complemen-
tary research on toxicokinetics and metabolism will pro-
vide an improved basis for the interpretation of biomarker
indices, and in guiding sampling protocols for biomarkers
for the validation of exposure models.
database resources. Federal agencies and large industry
groups are creating and improving their capabilities to
enter, process, and retain human exposure related data of
many kinds. This process has already stimulated efforts
to improve the quality and range of the data being col-
lected.
Based upon its study, the IAQTHEC prepared five specific
recommendations to EPA:
1. Develop a mechanism to support research, validation and
application of (a) more sensitive and specific microsensors,
biomarkers, and other monitoring technologies and ap-
proaches for measuring exposures and (b) validated data
on associated exposure determinants, including demo-
graphic characteristics, time-activity patterns, locations of
activities, behavioral and life-style factors, etc.
2. Establish a mechanism to develop, validate with field data,
and iteratively improve models that integrate (a) measure-
ments of total exposure and their determinants; (b) a better
knowledge of exposure distributions across different popu-
lations; and (c) the most current understanding available of
exposure-dose relationships.
3. Develop, in cooperation with other agencies and stake-
holders, a robust database that reflects the status and trends
in national exposure to environmental contaminants.
4. Develop sustained mechanisms and incentives to ensure a
greater degree of interdisciplinary collaboration in expo-
sure assessment, and, by extension, in risk assessment and
risk management activities.
5. Take advantage of exploding capabilities in exposure as-
sessment technology, electronic handling of data, and elec-
tronic communications, to establish and disseminate
early-warnings of developing environmental stresses.
6.5 Radiation Advisory Committee Report
(EPA-SAB-RAC-95-006) .
The Radiation Advisory Committee (RAC) formed a subcom-
mittee, the Radiation Environmental Futures Subcommittee
(KEFS), to address future potential problems in environmen-
tal radiation. The REFS carried out a scan of future develop-
ments in the field of radiation, particularly as they pertained to
environmental radiation. The Subcommittee reached consen-
sus on a list of 21 issues that it considered to be the most
relevant ones in environmental radiation over a 5-30-year
time frame. From this list, the Subcommittee selected seven
major topics that might have a significant impact in the future
of our environment. The issue categories were (1) Energy and
environmental quality; (2) Exposures, dose-response models,
and population susceptibility; (3) Management of radioactive
waste material; (4) Nonionizing radiation; (5) Radon and .the
indoor environment; (6) Loss of control of nuclear materials;
(7) How does the EPA become the source of choice for
environmental radiation information, and recognition as a
leader on these issues?
Based on its study, the RAC Subcommittee recommended
that EPA consider the following activities as part of its long-
term efforts for the environment:
1) Place greater emphasis on providing scientifically cred-
ible information, while relying less on a regulatory role in
risk management.
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2) Participate in the joint development of national energy
policies, focusing on (a) an examination of the overall
environmental consequences of different energy produc-
tion options; (b) the roles of alternative energy sources,
including nuclear electricity generation, in curtailing green-
house gases; (c) potential releases of radioactive materi-
als to the environment; (d) radioactive waste management
issues; and (e) possible increases in Ultra Violet (UV)
radiation and other harmful stressors,
3) Incorporate into its program activities important research
findings related to radiation exposures, dose-response
models, and radiation effects, especially in regard to
differences in individual susceptibility.
4) Provide an environmental perspective to assure control of
nuclear weapons materials through conversion to energy
use and/or secure disposal,
5) Stimulate and track research on the potential health ef-
fects of exposure to nonionizing radiation and provide
non-regulatory federal guidance and advice on the pru-
dent avoidance of unnecessary risks from potential sources
of exposure, if such risks are shown to exist.
6) Assume a federal leadership role in activities involving
pollution prevention, the management and disposal of
radioactive wastes, and in developing criteria and stan-
dards for cleanup of sites containing radioactive and
mixed wastes.
7) Exercise its federal radiation guidance role, in collabora-
tion with other Federal and state agencies, to promote
reduction of population exposure in medical uses of
radiation.
8) Continue efforts to focus on characterization of high-risk
radon potential regions, improving knowledge about ra-
don risks, and developing more accurate methods of
measuring and mitigating radon in buildings. Particular
emphasis should be placed on empowerment,of stake-
holders by dissemination of all scientific information
available,
9) Become the primary source of information on environ-
mental radiation by providing advice, guidance, and stan-
dards, where appropriate, on the scientific basis for risk
management decisions and by identifying research needs
in radiation-related areas. The continued existence and
funding of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation,
and its work with the A-bomb survivors will be crucial to
these efforts, and
10) Use a process of foresight to develop a capability for
scanning the future in order to be proactive, rather than
reactive, in shaping environmental radiation policies.
6.6 Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee
Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC) partici-
pated in the environmental futures project by contributing
directly to the Environmental Futures Committee (EFC) rather
than by producing a separate report of its own. The Commit-
tee developed and refined several issues and recommenda-
tions related to air quality, which were included in the EFC
Overview report and the appendix. Of particular note is the
CASAC recommendation regarding the multimedia impacts
of total pollutant loadings, which appears in the EFC report as
one of the five major issues for consideration in the near term.
The recommendation is reiterated here.
EPA should begin to address air quality as a
total pollutant system producing multimedia
insults that transcend national borders.
Current approaches to air quality management which focus on
one pollutant or one impact at a time, do not effectively deal
with complex connections among atmospheric processes, syn-
ergisrn of pollutants and resulting impacts, and multimedia
affects of air pollutants. These approaches also do not ad-
equately consider the long term, long distance, and often
international characteristics of air pollution. They also tend to
neglect the associated overriding social and economic factors
which can delay or ever deter implementation of strategies
which affect the world community in general.
To improve current approaches, EPA will need to develop a
broader definition of the total air burden which considers new
and emerging air toxics as well as familiar regulated pollut-
ants. EPA will also need to develop a system for addressing
diverse sources and multimedia effects of total pollution
burden. A shift from single pollutant threshold-based regula-
tions to comparable risk paradigms also may be appropriate
given the lower or perhaps more uncertain thresholds associ-
ated with the total air burden. New structures for integrated
assessments of the multimedia effects of pollutants also may
need to be considered to facilitate decision making regarding
the total air burden. Finally, in order to take a leadership role
internationally in promoting this more holistic approach, EPA
will need to take a leadership role internationally in promoting
this approach to air quality as an issue that is intimately linked
to other environmental, energy, social, and economic con-
cerns.
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7.0 Retrospective Analysis
The concept of using foresight to assist long range planning
efforts is generally accepted. However, it may be difficult to
envision how foresight might change the Agency's response
to problems. The EFC recommends that the Agency examine
in retrospect the development of a few critical environmental
issues that led to environmental policy changes in the past. -
Environmental issues tend to evolve by passing through a
series of stages or steps: the initial "warning signs" of environ-
mental damage; scientific understanding; public awareness;
public pressure for action; congressional awareness; and imple-
mentation of the statute or policy (Figure 4). A retrospective
review should examine the time between several key mile-
stones (e.g., "the initial "warning signs" of environmental
damage and scientific understanding), the factors that affected
the course of the issue, and the shareholders that the Agency
contacted for the issue(s). Once the historical relationships
have been defined, one possible analytical approach could use
normative scenarios to identify desired outcomes. Informa-
tion on driving factors could be used to develop strategies to
reach those outcomes. The EFC has not been able to conduct
this type of analysis during this project, and is not suited to
doing it. However the Committee has an impression of the
process and the likely impact of foresight on the nature and
timing of an Agency response. The EPA is nearing the
completion of a more extensive review of the benefits of the
air pollution controls imposed by the CAA of 1970. This
report, and SAB review of it, can provide lessons for the
utility of the methodologies used, and the cost benefits from a
landmark regulatory statute.
Generally, the period between the initial recognition of an
environmental issue and the implementation of a policy or
regulation is likely to span several decades. Foresight tech-
niques are most likely to reduce the time between the "early
warning signals" and the scientific understanding of the issue
and the response of the Agency to it. In a limited study of the
1977 Clean Air Act, OPPE found that net environmental
benefits were not realized until more than 13 years after the
passage of the CAA due the elaborate process of developing
guidance and approving state implementation plans. The
retrospective analysis of this case study suggests that the
Agency may have many opportunities to accelerate imple-
mentation of its regulations and improve its monitoring of
weak signals. '
Drivers
Stressor
(Scientific) Observations/
Knowledge/Monitoring
Figure 4. The Evolution of an Environmental Policy.
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34
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Appendix A
Input Data for Master List of Possible Specific, Future Issues Collected
Note: The eleven sets of issues are given in full, as submitted,
with only light editing to eliminate typographical and other
minor errors. While these issues cover a broad range of topics,
they must not be considered all-inclusive; they are simply the
ones submitted by some SAB members in response to the
EFC's invitation. Also, while they are possible issues, they are
not predictions of problems that will happen.
1 -1. Primary particles along with those formed from chemical
reactions involving sulfur, nitrogen, and carbon may be re-
flecting solar radiation back into space, thereby masking the
greenhouse effect over some parts of the earth. Without
simultaneous management of particles, particle processors
and greenhouse gases, global warming could be accelerated or
masked. Thus simultaneous management is needed.
1-2. There is increasing evidence that naturally occurring
nitrogen deficiencies have been ameliorated in a number of
diverse environments possibly due to large urban increases in
nitrogen oxide emissions and agricultural ammonia emissions
which affect areas far removed from their immediate SUD-
roundings. It has been suggested that nitrogen-stimulated
carbon uptake in plant tissues of aggrading forests of the
northern hemisphere can balance global carbon losses to the
atmosphere from agriculture and deforestation. Nitrogen fer-
tilization may therefore serve to postpone the rate of CO2.
accumulation in the atmosphere. Consequently simultaneous:
management of CO2 and N may be needed.
1-3. Formation mechanisms for secondary pollutants such as
ozone and fine particles (and visibility-reducing regional haze)
in the atmosphere through complex, nonlinear processes are
not fully understood. It is further complicated by "uncontrol-
lable factors" such as natural emissions and meteorological
influences. As we leam more about such processes, we may
have to rethink our present control strategy paradigm.
1-4. Many chemicals are more harmful in general to human
health and welfare when acting in the presence of other
chemicals. For example, ozone and particles often coexist and
high levels of both together results in a suite of adverse
impacts. Thus, simultaneous risk-management of the total air
burden is needed.
1-5. As we continue to find biological impacts of air pollut-
ants at lower and lower concentrations, the paradigm of
setting standards at levels below which effects are seen (and
with an adequate margin of safety) will need to be changed to
one that is based on comparative risk management.
1 -6. Emissions of persistent, or long-lived, toxics as well
as other air pollutants are a problem especially in developing
countries and especially in local areas where these air con-
taminants are prevalent in high concentrations. They are also
important globally because of longTrange transport and trans-
portation. These need proper consideration in the environ-
mental debate.
1 -7. The transport of goods from developed to developing
countries does not always follow good environmental prac-
tices further compounding environmental degradation in de-
veloping countries. Until clean technology is available and
used worldwide, pollution will continue to rise globally.
1-8. Overarching Air Quality Issue. Current approaches to air
quality management which focus on one Issue at a time do not
effectively deal with complex connections among atmospheric
processes, synergism of pollutants and resulting impacts, and
overriding social and economic factors which can.delay or
even deter implementation of strategies which affect the pub-
lic in general. Recognition of this situation is leading to a risk-
based management treatment of air quality as a total system
intimately linked to other factors and to programs encourag-
ing individual participation and commitment to pollution pre-
vention.
1-9. A comprehensive set of early warning signs has yet to be
identified. Past elements of the environment that provided
early signs provide guidance in developing a set of human
health and other environmental signals leading to recognition
of potential problems while they are still tractable. Indicators
of environmental well being often are difficult to understand
except in the case of visual air quality. Often the air looks bad
before other senses or body conditions suggest that something
is unhealthy with the air. Use of haze as an early warning
signal has immediate and long term value.
1-10. Stress, often induced by factors related to or enhanced
by environmental degradation, may be growing. This could
result in increased physical health problems and for the people
most sensitive to equity issues, to increased violence. This
' leads to an awareness that improvement of environmental
quality, particularly in areas of high population, can help
reduce antisocial behavior occurring in these areas.
1-11. Individual habits are a major factor determining pollu-
tion levels. However, voluntary mandates for personal change
do not seem to be effective in many areas, leading to a call for
improved environmental education and dialogue among indi-
viduals and institutions to promote an awareness of common
problems and a common commitment to solutions developed
by and for the public in general.
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1-12. The lack of acceptance or empowerment felt by a
growing number of people worldwide may result in increased
violence and apathy especially for those people most sensitive
to economic and- environmental stress. Because of this, plus
the availability of harmful weapons, there may be less respect,
and even an indifference, for the environment and other
humans. This almost desperate situation leads to an acute
awareness that environmental programs must be sensitive to
equity issues and address the need for bringing angry voices
into the decision process.
2-1. The conservation of biodiversity will become an issue of
major importance in the future period under consideration.
3-1. Sustainable Ecosystem Management. Mounting popula-
tion and related pressures will require holistic ecosystem risk
assessment and management capable of supporting sustain-
able development; operational definitions of ecosystems which
permit this to be done are not now available.
Discussion: Existing laws, regulations and mechanisms cover
only the protection of specific species or of certain features
which include one of more ecosystems (e.g., wetlands). Public
awareness and interest in this issue is rising. Research is
needed to define ecosystems so as to take account of their
interrelationships to each other and to the whole; their role in
maintaining sufficient biodiversity; their relationships to hu^
man health, well being and welfare; their relevance for achiev-
ing sustainable development; when ecological change is or is
not inimical to human health, well being and welfare; and
when remedial action is required. This issue is likely to
become prominent early in the period and to have major effect
on land use. (See Issue (3-9)).
3-2. Wildlife Health. The increasing occurrence of adverse
health effects in wildlife populations as a result of exposure to
various stressors, especially when more than one species is
affected, may indicate or pose risks to human health and the
environment.
Discussion: This is an issue not widely known to the public; it
is of concern to wildlife biologists, especially, in regard to
reproductive health. The monitoring of wildlife health, achiev-
ing understanding of the relevant etiologies, and determining
what effects may be indicated for human health or for ecologi-
cal damage is needed. .
3-3. Maintenance of the Health of the Oceans. The overall
health of the oceans is deteriorating. Its maintenance needs to
be addressed holistically and internationally as population
pressures and related drivers bring ever greater stress on the
total set of the oceans' regenerative capacities.
Discussion: Numerous instances of adverse impacts on the
local (and wider-ranging) conditions of the oceans exist as a
result of introducing harmful substances into the oceans as
well as because of overstressing the resources of the oceans
(e.g., overfishing: world fish catch per person is already level-
to-decreasing and further population pressures, even with
relatively mild population growth, and the growing demand
for protein, could seriously affect this resource and, therefore,
the health of oceanic ecologies). This is an international issue,
it may have national security aspects, it is not confined to the
EPA, and it will probably become prominent toward the end
of the period. Research, including policy research, is needed
now.
3-4. Local Climate Change. Future, more complete definition
of the mechanisms of global climate change raises the possi-
bility of identifying factors leading to adverse, local climate
changes and the need for methods for their risk assessment
and management.
Discussion:. The increasing ability to identify local climate
change factors and to assess related risks and management
options is likely to lead to the development of related policies,
legislation arid regulation. Public interest is likely in such
developments. Research to provide a sound scientific and
economic basis will be needed. Effects on land use are likely
to be significant. This issue is seen to be longer term, possibly
reaching prominence toward the end of the period.
3-5. Human Health and Ecological Risks of Introduced
Bioengineered Species. Increasing rates of introduction of a
growing variety of bioengineered species may cause new
human health and ecological risks, both direct (from intro-
duced species) and indirect (from species' alteration); meth-
ods for assessing .these risks are not available.
Discussion: Risks may not be only those which arise directly
from contact .with or use of bioengineered species or their
products or frorn their escape into the general environment (as
is true with naturally occurring species such as the current
case of the zebra mussel invasion of the Great Lakes). Indirect
risks might arise from: natural modifications of introduced
species, modifications of existing species which interact or
exchange genetic material with introduced species either di-
rectly or through the mediation of other species (e.g., viruses),
or the development of variants of existing species in response
to the challenge of introduced species. Research is needed on
the existence (or nonexistence) of both direct and indirect
risks, and on methods and protocols for hazard identification
and risk analysis. As more bioengineered species are pro-
duced and used, public interest is likely to be a salient factor in
shaping the issue.
3-6. Environmental Impacts and Benefits of the Information
Highway. Environmental and other benefits of the spread of
the information highway throughout out society may bring
with them significant personal health and societal risks.
Discussion: Some of the risks are personal isolation and
greater separation, in society, between those who can and do
enter the information highway and those who cannot or do not.
do so, as well as the direct health effects involved in exposure
to the relevant equipment and the changes in life-style that are
likely. Research on the psychological and societal impacts of
this development is needed, and on ways to mitigate the
impacts since the development, underway already, is not
likely to slow down. This issue may assume significant pro-
portions early in the period. EPA could take leadership in
addressing and defining this issue.
3-7. Total Human Health Risk Management. Growing empha-
sis on risks of non-cancer, adverse health effects will lead to
human health risk assessment and management involving
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consideration of all health effects under conditions of both
single and multiple exposures with great impact on the regula-
tion and management of health risks.
Discussion: The growing emphasis on risks of non-cancer,
adverse health effects seen today is likely to lead to human
health risk assessment and management which involves con-
sideration of all health effects under conditions of both single
and multiple exposures. The identification of the controlling
risk as a means of managing and regulating multiple risks is
likely to become possible. EPA should take the lead in pursu-
ing these developments.
3-8. Biomarkers of Exposure and Biomarkers of Effect, Rapid
strides in understanding human and animal biological and
genetic mechanisms at the most basic levels make it likely
that significant biomarkers of exposure and of effect will be
defined, greatly changing the way human health risks are
studied, assessed, regulated and managed.
Discussion: These developments will change the approach to
animal testing, epidemiology, and health hazard and risk
assessment, and will bring about much more sophisticated
methods for regulating health risks. These same techniques,
applied to wildlife, will have powerful effects on the issue of
wildlife health.. EPA should take the lead in pursuing these
developments.
3-9. Susceptibilities to Environmentally Induced Diseases.
Rapid strides being made in understanding human and animal
biological and genetic mechanisms at the most basic levels
make it likely that individual susceptibilities to diseases will
become well understood, greatly changing the way human
health risks are studied, assessed, regulated and managed.
Discussion: Such knowledge, applied to health risk regula-
tion, would have direct and powerful effects on such regula-
tion by making it possible to identify, in more instances than
is now possible, the most susceptible members of a popula-
tion. EPA should take the lead in pursuing these develop-
ments.
3-10. Ancillary Information Bearing on Health Risks. Rapid
strides in understanding human and animal biological and
genetic mechanisms at the most basic levels make it likely
.that in vitro and in vivo data and PBPK models will change
how human health risk assessment is done, greatly changing
the way human health risks are studied, assessed, regulated
and managed.
Discussion: Such scientific progress also will likely lead to
increased understanding of structure-activity relationships and
to their improved application in health risk assessment. EPA
should take the lead in pursuing these developments.
3-11. Environmental Justice or Environmental Equity. En-
vironmental Justice is an existing issue which can expand well
. beyond its present scope and move in significant, additional
directions.
Discussion: Starting as a dot on the horizon in the 1970s, the
Environmental Justice issue is rapidly becoming a main stream
issue. It is politically attractive and has a growing following.
Research is needed to provide the statistical and other evi-
dence to ensure that policy decisions (and any concomitant
legislative and/or regulatory decisions) are the best that can be
made. Examination of current regulatory structures to deter-
mine which may be affected by the Environmental Justice
issue (not only those regulatory structures relating to site-
related issues but all types of regulations) is needed to deter-
mine the scope of the research issue and to set goals.
3-12. Land Use, As both direct and indirect land use restric-
tions grow in number, coverage and complexity, a holistic
review of land-use-related laws, regulations and policies will
become more urgent as a part of achieving sustainable devel-
opment.
Discussion: In addition to the many existing, direct, land use
laws, regulations and ordinances, there are the indirect land
use effects of existing laws which do not have land use as their
primary objectives (e.g., the Clean Air Act and its "Bubble"
concept) and the potential for further, major land use restric-
tions arising from the resolution of new issues within the
period. Land use restrictions, direct and indirect, with due
regard for environmental and human health issues and the
laws which regulate them, for agriculture, forestry, industry,
housing, recreation, environmental conservation, and many
other uses will need integrated reexamination and, possibly,
reform as a part of achieving sustainable development. Major,.
technically- and scientifically-backed, integrated, policy re-.
search is needed. This issue is likely to become acute in the
period.
3-13. Transportation/Energy/Environmental Policy. In the
light of the growing need for energy efficiency and environ-
mental protection, review of our national transportation sys-
tems-is needed to determine what developments are desirable
and what means and incentives are needed to bring them
about in a free society.
Discussion: Transportation in all its forms is a major energy
user and has major environmental impacts. New directions
(an example might be appropriate combinations of very fast
trains with short- and long-haul airplanes and trucks to pro-
vide more energy-efficient, environmentally friendly intercity
freight and passenger transport) need to be explored and
policies developed for the implementation of better systems
than are now in place. Current laws, for example, for good but
possibly outdated reasons, which now favor certain forms of
transportation over others, may need to be rewritten to achieve
energy efficiency and lower environmental impact. Incentives
to move in the preferred direction need to be devised to effect
change in our free society. Life cycle analysis should play a
prominent role in this reexamination. While EPA may not be
the principal agency involved with this issue, it should have
important involvement as the administrator of so many cur-
rent environmental laws.
4-1. Managing An Environmental Data Resource, Risk, As-
sessment and Risk Management decisions would be much
more defensible and gain much wider acceptance if they could
be based on a firmer data and knowledge base than now
exists. Under typical current conditions, relevant data are
either nonexistent, not accessible, or of unknown specificity,
relevance, or quality, or lack coordinate information that
would make them useful.
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Discussion: With appropriate specification of the kinds, na-
ture, and amounts of data needed for some of EPA's most
common data needs for risk assessment and risk management,
much of the potentially useful data being collected by EPA,
states, industry, and others could be made much more useful
at marginal increases in the cost of acquisition. The existence
of a rational and accessible repository of quality-assured data
would itself stimulate the acquisition and sharing of additional
data that fills the important information needs of the various
stakeholders. The mature system would provide for uniform
criteria for:
(a) Data collection and entry into universal data resource
(b) Reasonable and open access to universal data resource
(c) Inventory of data and periodic trends analysis
(d) Ongoing system of oversight
(e) Periodic review of analysis based on usage of data
resource
4-2. Defining Acceptable Risk. There is increasing recognition
that there are few environmental exposures resulting from
anthropogenic activities that do not create measurable effects
on human health and welfare and on ecological balance. There
are, however, few established criteria for evaluating and char-
acterizing the nature, distribution, and persistence of these
effects, and their acceptability to affected individuals or to
society as a whole.
Discussion: There are many dimensions to be considered in
defining the acceptability of risk, such as: voluntary vs im-
posed; familiar vs exotic; transient vs persistent or irrevers-
ible; benefits to compensate for risks accepted; personal vs
societal; difficulty or cost of risk reduction; willingness to
accept or impose remedial costs, etc. When low-cost and/or
broadly acceptable risk reduction options are not feasible, risk
minimization efforts will depend on broadly acceptable defi-
nitions of the circumstances under which specific levels of
risk are tolerated by individuals and populations, including
those circumstances where anthropogenic program activities
increase exposures and risks incrementally above natural back-
ground exposures and their associated risks. EPA should
consider how to engage appropriate stakeholders in develop-
ing and refining criteria for defining acceptable risk for a
variety of .circumstances where anthropogenic activities can
increase and/or redistribute risks to ecological systems and/or
human health and welfare.
4-3. Global Atmospheric Composition and Pollutant Disper-
sion. Trace gases such as ozone (O.,), methane (CH^), and
nitrous oxide (NO) as well as carbon dioxide (CO2), and fine
particles (FP) have been continuously increasing in concen-
tration in the global atmosphere for most or all of the twenti-
eth century, as has the global dispersion of toxic trace elements
and compounds that raises the background soil and surface
water deposition of these materials. These include lead (Pb),
mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), poly chlorinated
biphenyls (PCBs) dioxins, and pesticides.
Discussion: While some of the effects of this widespread
dispersion of pollutants are known to some extent, such as the
influence of CO2, CH4 and FP on global climate change, and
the role of transport in the atmosphere on Hg uptake in fish in
distant lakes and its impact on Hg in human diets, others are
more speculative. These include the effects of rising back-
ground levels of O3 and FP on the mortality and morbidity
associated with daily peak levels of these pollutants. For such
issues, trends analysis of rising background pollutant levels
may provide early warnings about rising exposures of human
and ecosystems that, with improving exposure-response knowl-
edge, could justify controls before waiting for more severe
effects to be established.
4-4. Defining Remediation Criteria. Contaminated mining,
milling, industrial process, and waste disposal sites need to be
managed, isolated, and/or decontaminated prior to their use
for activities that may lead to exposures to residual waste
contaminants in adjacent, downstream and other populations.
Decontamination to levels approaching pristine conditions is
generally either not possible or far more costly than the value
of the benefits from such essentially complete cleanup, re-
moval and disposal of recoverable contaminants.
Discussion: For sites that can be restricted to usage that does
not involve full and free access of the general public, such as
industrial plants, warehouses, freight terminals, etc. alterna-
tive specifications designed to isolate, encapsulate and/or
contain contaminants in subsurface soils may serve to protect
the workers on the site, and the public outside, from signifi-
cant exposures from the residual contaminants in the soil and/
or water. This can allow restoration of the sites to the local tax
roles and the creation of new employment opportunities for
local residents. EPA can stimulate local economies and job
creation by establishing and enforcing realistic criteria for site
remediation for sites which do not warrant restoration to
pristine conditions.
5-1. "Feminizing" of animal and human species as a result of
exposure to estrogen-mimicking compounds in the environ-
ment. Early popular press reports lead to public awareness and
concern. EPA's paradigm shifts from exposure to cancer risks,
to exposure to risks to the endocrine or reproductive systems
of plants and animals, including humans.
5-2. Loss of environmental data archives (including, possibly,
stored plant germ plasm) as a result of unauthorized access by
data terrorists or destructive hackers.
5-3. Statistically significant increase in atmospheric tempera-
ture provides irrefutable evidence of global warming, result-
ing in acceleration of changes in energy policy in essentially
all countries.
5-4. Continued lack of statistical evidence of atmospheric
temperature increases, leading to cynicism about global warm-
ing and more liberal energy policies.
5-5. Soil depletion, increased addition of dust and particulates
to the atmosphere, and accelerating desertification in develop-
ing countries-partieulafly sub-Saharan African countries- re-
sulting from pressures to increase agricultural output to feed
large indigenous populations. (African population is expected
to rise from 600 million to over 1 billion by 2010; Population
Reference Bureau, 1994).
5-6. Loss of an annual crop such as wheat or -corn in -the
United States as a result of an unexpected pathogen-perhaps a
mutant virus-that successfully attacks a vulnerable, single
species crop. This results in food shortages in countries that
would have imported the crop and increased prices as well as
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a search for new means of detecting and dealing with plant
pathogens and a call for crop diversity.
5-7, Increased presence of lead and more exotic metals in the
environment as a result of widespread acceptance of electric
or high efficiency automobiles.
5-8. New and unexpected modes of introduction of pollutants
and hazardous materials into the environment as a result of
deterioration of urban infrastructure (decaying of sewer or
natural gas pipes, for example).
5-9. Salt intrusion into primary aquifers from run off and
leeching into the soil, leading to the need for large scale
desalination, with concomitant price increases. This acceler-
ates the search for plant species that can be irrigated with salt
or brackish water.
5-10. Practical demonstration that very low frequency non
ionizing radiation is causally related to certain forms of can-
cer. The etiology linking VLF EMR and disease is estab-
lished; epidemiological inferences are confirmed. Result: the
need for new exposure limits, monitoring, and revamping of
products and electrical transmission infrastructure.
5-11. Emergence of a possible new endpoint: impacts of
environmental pollutants on aging processes of various spe-
cies (including humans) through, for example, effects on the
neuroendocrine system.
5-12. Use of weapons with new properties including sleep
inducing, behavior mediation (psychotropics), material diges-
tion, bio-weapons, surface modification (e.g., chemicals for
making roads slick), etc.
6-1. The environment and U.S. industrial competitiveness in
the global marketplace are at risk if optimal (i.e., not over-
shoot/undershoot) Agency policy options concerning clean
technologies are not adopted.
6-2. A failure to establish an appropriate Agency stance that
can enable less costly and more timely redevelopment of
urban land and structures could force the development of
more pristine land resources, contrary to conservation objec-
tives, and increasingly diminish the ability of urban planners
to provide badly needed resources.
6-3. Present Agency capability and readiness are inadequate
to address potential environmental consequences of natural
disasters in the face of trends in population growth and land
use.
6-4. The costs of environmental management strategies will
become fully recognized by the public and consequently
EPA's programs are challenged,
6-5. Unless appropriately deployed, industrial-ecology con-
cepts will lead to uses of wastes by industrial/commercial
sectors that cause more problems than solutions.
6-6. The threat or actuality of terrorist activities related to the
environment could reach crisis proportions and become a
major focus for the Agency.
6-7. Accelerating deterioration of urban infrastructure (e.g.,
water, sewerage, fuels) will cause many serious environmen-
tal incidents,
6-8. Fossil fuel depletion will lead to use of resources having
a greater potential for environmental contamination and habi-
tat loss.
6-9, Technology to control newly recognized pathogens in
drinking water will be found to be inadequate.
6-10. Managing environmental reservoirs, such as contami-
nated sediments, will become recognized to be more critical
than increasingly stringent point-discharge management.
6-11. Proliferation of new technologies will increase sources
of nonionizing radiation and will become recognized as a
major health threat.
6-12. A Cross-Cutting Issue: The Agency will not be able to
meet future environmental challenges unless it endeavors to
identify required core technical and research competencies
and, where needed, strives to strengthen them,
6-13. Land use choices made without appropriate environ-
mental considerations can prevent achievement of EPA's
biodiversity and human -welfare/health goals.
6-14. International Incident Response: In order to achieve and
maintain environmental goals in the United States EPA, in
concert with other countries, will need to develop the capabil-
. ity to respond throughout the world to major releases due to
industrial accidents and terrorist acts.
7-1. Species and habitat loss, and loss of productive agricul-
tural land, because of inefficient and inappropriate land use,
necessitating more effective, long-range measures to manage
land use.
7-2. Broad ranges of environmental problems are exponent
tially multiplied by increasing human populations, requiring
recognition and strategic planning to address population
growth,
7-3. Broad ranges of environmental problems are multiplied
by high consumption rates for energy and natural resources,
requiring increased efficiency in the use of these resources.
7-4. Decreased reproductive ability and health in many ani-
mals, including humans, caused by persistent organochlorine
wastes (resulting from pesticide use, combustion and indus-
trial processes) being widely distributed through the environ-
ment, requiring better control of this class of chemicals and
better understanding of their impact on the environment,
7-5. Potentially massive effects on plants and animal life
caused by increased UV radiation reaching the earth because
of decreasing ozone concentrations in the upper atmosphere,
caused by halogens (especially chlorine) reacting with the
upper atmosphere, requiring measures to greatly reduce re-
leases of these chemicals to the atmosphere.
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7-6. Changes in plant and animal habitats, population centers,
agriculture, energy use, etc., as a result of climate changes
resulting from IR-absorbing gases released to and remaining
in the atmosphere, requiring measures to minimize releases
and retention of these gases in the atmosphere.
7-7. Loss of plant and animal species resulting from habitat
destruction (through resource extraction, land development...
improper/inefficient land use), requiring more efficient use of
land and water resources.
7-8. Habitat destruction, chemical and biological contamina-
tion of groundwater and surface water, loss of productive
agricultural land caused by, unsustainable .agricultural prac-
tices, requires revision of current methods of crop production
to more sustainable practices.
7-9. Broad ranges of environmental problems resulting from
rapid economic growth in the developing world, requiring
strategic technology planning, technology transfer, and nego-
tiations to reduce or slow these impacts.
7-10. Unforeseen but potentially significant environmental
impacts resulting from the development, use and disposal of
thousands of new chemicals per year, requires better testing
and control of these compounds,
7-11. Potential for direct (human health) and indirect (agricul-
tural) effects resulting from "emerging" viruses and opportu-
nistic plants and animals spread by global trade and travel,
and treatment-resistant bacteria, require a more careful strat-
egy for understanding, and addressing changing ecosystems.
7-12. Broad ranges of environmental effects resulting from
inefficient use of energy for transportation, industrial pur-
poses, and residential use requiring improved conservation
and efficiency, and development of energy sources with lower
environmental impacts.
7-13. Decreasing availability of the quantity and quality of
surface and groundwater resulting from inefficient use and
contamination require measures to more efficiently use avail-
able resources and protect and restore other resources for
sustainable use.
7-14. Declining plant, fish and.-animal populations resulting
from unsustainable harvesting, habitat loss and pollution,
require measures to ensure the protection of lands and waters
as ecosystems and as a sustainable resources for humans.
» Issues 7-15 through 7-18 are likely to cause significant
environmental impact only under specific future sce-
narios; they are scenario-dependent issues:
7-15, Environmental costs (localized climate change, decreased
raptor populations) resulting from increased use of "alterna-
tive" (solar, wind) power sources require more comprehen-
sive planning for use of these technologies.
7-16. Unforeseen alterations of ecosystems caused by devel-
opment and use of genetically-engineered organisms (bacte-
ria, plants, animals), require planning, testing and control of
this technology.
7-17. Release of highly radioactive material to the environ-
ment caused by accidental or intentional (war, terrorism)
events, require more control of these materials.
7-18. Potential human health and environmental effects from
exposure to electromagnetic radiation resulting from the rapid
growth in the number and power of EM sources (communica-
tions, power transmission lines), require a better understand-
ing of effects from these sources.
8-1. Research is needed in developing risk assessment meth-
ods for use with infectious agents. Generally, actual levels of
exposure are not known; nor is how these factors can vary in
their impact with susceptible populations.
8-2. There is a need for the Agency to develop and implement
a strategy that focuses future research and development ef-
forts on a regional or geographically oriented basis. Problems
of natural resource protection, pollution prevention, toxicant
monitoring, water management and conservation, fisheries
and wildlife protection, as examples, all have a regional
specificity that needs to be addressed if efficiencies are to be
realized with the limited available resources. Further, there is
a need for interagency planning in this effort due to the severe
overlap in many critical areas of environmental concern (e.g.,
land use, water supplies, fisheries). This regional type of
effect could also address differences between laws of adjoin-
ing states that create critical rather than supportive public
responses.
8-3. There is a current and expanding need to research,
develop and implement practices and procedures that will
provide adequate future supplies of renewable water in the
United States.
Issues 9-1 through 9-13 were organized into five catego-
ries, considering a range of energy scenarios: (1) Issues
from "Reducing Risk", (2) Stressors Causing Effects in
the Near Term (0-30 years), (3) Stressors Causing Effects
in the Longer Term (30+ years), (4) Other Possible
Future Concerns!Stressors, and (5) Effects Caused by
Cumulative Stresses (Syndromes):
(1) High Risk Problems Identified in "Reducing Risk."
The importance, significance, and relative ranking of the risks
to ecological resources identified in Appendix A of the SAB's
"Reducing Risk" report are affirmed. Risks that received high
rankings in that report included:
9-1. Global Climate Change
9-2, Habitat Alteration and Destruction
9-3. Loss of Biological Diversity
9-4. Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
These four environmental problems continue to present high
risks to ecological systems and human welfare because the
geographical scale of all four is very large (regional to global),
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and because the time that could be required to mitigate all four
is very long and some effects are irreversible.
(2) Stressors Causing Effects in the Near Terra (0-30
years)
9-5. Habitat Alteration and Destruction - The greatest stres-
sor to the world's biological resources is alteration and loss of
habitat. Loss, degradation and fragmentation of habitat due to
urbanization, land use changes associated with agricultural
and silviculture activities, and transportation stress terrestrial
biota. Flow modifications, channel alterations, damming, silt-
ation, and nutrient enrichment eliminate and degrade aquatic
habitats impacting aquatic biota,
9-6, Exotic Species - Accidental or misguided introduction of
exotic species (both plant and animal, terrestrial and aquatic)
poise a significant threat to endemic species and overall
biodiversity. Introduced species often out compete native
species due to lack of predators and disrupt the structure and
functioning of ecosystems. Examples include: zebra mussel in
Lake Erie, asiatic clam, kudzu, chestnut blight, Dutch Elm
disease, water milfoil, hydrilla, mesquite, Japanese beetle, sea
lamprey. With internationalization of the economy, a signifi-
cant risk exists for an increase in the introduction of exotic
species. Development of transgenic species may pose a simi-
lar threat if not carefully evaluated and managed.
9-7. Pollution - Persistent bioaccumulative chemicals, metals,
some pesticides and nutrient (phosphorous and nitrogen) con-
tinue to have adverse impacts on terrestrial, freshwater .and
near coastal ecosystems in many parts of the world.
Bioaccumulative chemicals such as dioxin and polychlori-
nated biphenyls (PCBs) concentrate in top predators and can
adversely affect growth, development and reproduction of
terrestrial and aquatic consumers. Metals in soil, sediments
and water can exert acute and chronic toxic effects on plants
and animals. Continued use of highly toxic and persistent
pesticides particularly in developing countries threatens eco-
logical resources. Excessive use of fertilizers in urban and
agricultural applications are causing eutrophieation of fresh-
water and near coastal ecosystems. Eutrophication smothers
habitats, encourages growth of nuisance organisms (red tide)
and depletes dissolved oxygen.
9-8. Over Exploitation of Natural Resources - Adverse im-
pacts on ecological systems are significant from over exploi-
tation of natural resources. Over drafting of groundwater and
surface water for irrigation, industrial use and drinking water
supply are contributing to an increase in deserts in many parts
of the world. Poor agricultural practices contribute to erosion
and subsequent loss of soils. .Over exploitation of near coastal
and marine fisheries have decimated many stocks of fish.
Non-sustainable harvesting of timber, particularly in the trop-
ics, causes unprecedented losses of biodiversity. Surface min-
ing of minerals destroys terrestrial habitats and contaminates
aquatic ecosystems.
(3) Stressors Causing Effects in the Longer-Term (30+
years)
9-9. Concern continues about the ecological consequences of
global climate change caused by build up of greenhouse gases
and increases in ultra violet light (UVb) caused by depletion
of stratospheric ozone. Adverse ecological effects from these
Stressors such as inundation of coastal wetlands and marshes
from thermal expansion of the oceans and UVB impacts on
phytoplankton photosynthesis in the oceans may not be real-
ized until many years in the future. However, because of long
lag times in realizing the benefits of mitigation activities,
efforts should be begun immediately to address these issues.
(4) Other Possible Future Concerns/Stressors
9-10. Light pollution - If energy becomes inexpensive and
widely available globally due to advances in fusion and/or
hydrogen technologies, it is likely that this energy will be used
to light up the planet. Many animals and plants use light cues
to initiate their reproductive activities. Nocturnal animals
have evolved life strategies which partition niches based on
night time activities. Excessive light could significantly dis-
rupt plant and animal physiology and behavior and have
potentially significant effects.
9-11. Noise pollution - A more populated earth with increased
dependency on technology (machines) will also be a noisier
place. This noise has the potential to disrupt communication
critical for reproductive behavior and territorial defense for
many species. Many birds use calls to mark and defend their
territories. Whales whose population numbers are small com-
municate over long distances. As noise pollution increases,
interference with essential communication activities will in-
crease.
9-12. Electromagnetic fields - With inexpensive, widely avail-
able energy, it is likely that electromagnetic fields (EMF) will
increase. Potential impacts on terrestrial plants and animals
will also increase.
(S) Effects Caused By Cumulative Stresses (Syndromes)
9-13. Individual organisms, populations, communities of or-
ganisms and ecosystems respond to the cumulative impacts of
Stressors. Examples of significant ecological problems that
appear to be caused by cumulative stresses are: marine mam-
mal die-off, forest decline, and coral reef bleaching. These
phenomena appear to be increasing in frequency and extent.
Protecting ecological resources form cumulative stresses will
require an integrated and long term commitment to pollution
prevention and resource protection.
10-1. Environmental Impacts of Unmeasured or Unevaluated
Chemicals an overarching futures issue:
Only chemicals cited in permits and regulations are monitored
and measured. Previously, these were generic conventional
parameters such as BOD, COD, TPH, suspended solids, etc.
Now it is likely to be some set of specific chemicals, such as
benzene, naphthalene, chlorinated solvents, etc. There are,
however, many other chemicals released to the environment
that either in combination or alone can have a long term, slow
but important effect not appreciated.
It is not prudent to attempt to measure the concentrations of all
chemicals that are released. However, there should be at-
tempts to identify the effects that such chemicals may have.
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This overarching issue could capture some of the issues noted
elsewhere in the list of issues such as: release of bioengineered
species, environmental estrogens, loss of specific species
(frogs, birds, etc.), or non-cancer effects,
Use of the criteria the EFC has suggested indicate that this
issue should be one of the major ones.
10-2, Health of the Oceans (suggested as a major issue see,
too, issue 3-3).
The oceans are an important part of the global environment
yet an ecosystem that is poorly understood. In addition, be-
cause the oceans border on many countries and are so broad,
they are the responsibility of no one country or organization.
As a result, environmental changes receive little focus.
There are signs that the environmental health of the oceans
may be deteriorating. Fully 45% of the fish stocks whose
status is known are now overfished and populations of some
species have decreased to 10% of the level that yields the
largest sustainable catch (see 1993 Vital Signs for other rel-
evant information).
Whether these changes are from overfishing or from other
causes is not known. However, the point is that changes in the
ocean health are occurring and, whatever the cause, they can
have adverse environmental, economic and social impacts.
There is need for better science and knowledge to understand
the extent and rate of actual changes.
This is an important issue because the oceans: a) are an
important sink for CO2 and other gases, b) are a source of food
for much of the world, c) are important in the hydrologic
balance and weather patterns that affect all the earth, and d)
serve as a reservoir or sink for other chemicals discharged to
the atmosphere and to surface waters. The ecosystem health of
the oceans is an important national and global issue that also
has national security implications. Thus, it is prudent to take
steps to increase.the evaluation of the health of the oceans and
to include observations about ocean health in any lookout and
subsequent "future" considerations.
One can recall that concerns with surface water pollution
became large with the crystallizing event of fish kills. These
were localized, short term events that could be managed by
point source pollution controls. As a result, surface water
ecosystem health has improved.
Oceans are huge reservoirs whose equilibrium takes a long
time to change. However, it also will take a long time to
recover once the causes of any adverse effects are identified.
In the meantime, large parts of the global human population
may be affected by these changes. In estimating the relative
risk of adverse impacts, long term, broad impact events should
be considered major "future" issues. Ocean health is such an
issue.
Another factor that causes this to be a major issue is the fact
that there is no organization that has responsibility for the
evaluation of ocean ecosystem health. Thus, unless some
evaluation of such health is considered in any "futures" effort,
this issue will continue to fall through the cracks, be the
responsibility of no one, yet have an effect on everyone.
11-1. If the EPA wants to be considered a credible leader
among the agencies in the Federal Government with regard to
the issues pertaining to energy and the environment it should
consider the implementation of unequivocal and forceful poli-
cies with regard to energy issues today. The agency actions
could have considerable influence on the future of energy
supplies and energy production mix of the USA. In order for
these actions to be effective they must happen rapidly, and
they must give a clear message to the Nation. Ambiguous
policy statements will only complicate the issues that will
come up in the future. The EPA should clearly enunciate its
choice for the future of the environment as to whether green-
house gas reductions will be a guiding concern in the develop-
ment of policy alternatives. Furthermore, by the year 2030,
the 22% of the energy supply that comes from nuclear power
plants will be essentially taken out of the US energy supply
unless the issues regarding nuclear energy are resolved to the
satisfaction of the people. Barring an unforeseen breakthrough
in nuclear fusion technology, fusion energy will not be the
panacea to the energy question. Sustainable fusion reactions
beyond the "break even" point will require massive amounts
of tritium, which will generate a new and different mix of
radioactive wastes that is not completely understood at this
time. Three scenarios come clearly into view:
1. Greenhouse gases and nuclear waste concerns dominate
the future view and no nuclear or fossil energy produc-
tion facilities come on line. This scenario will require
clear and forceful policies for the rapid development of
efficient, clean and reliable alternative energy sources
that will replace the capacity lost as ageing plants are
decommissioned.
2. Greenhouse gases are the dominant concern in the future.
In this scenario effective policies for radioactive waste
disposal are implemented; concerns of trust in govern-
ment and politics as they pertain to nuclear safety and risk
issues are resolved through information dissemination
and education of the general public; and a satisfactory
accommodation between opposing political forces is
reached. Then new sources of nuclear energy (both fusion
and fission) come on line to replace fossil fuel capacity.
3. Nuclear issues are the dominant concerns. The nuclear
power capacity goes off-line by the year 2030. Efforts to
control greenhouse gases are limited by the energy needs
of the Nation. New policies are required for the develop-
ment of alternative energy sources as in Scenario 1.
All three scenarios require a solution to the waste disposal
issues that will incorporate pollution prevention and risk"
reduction as guiding principles. Furthermore, clear leadership
from the EPA will be needed to address the environmental
concerns found in all three scenarios. Which way the future
develops will be influenced by the energy actions.
11-2. Population exposures and susceptibilities to radiation
are an issue. As we learn more about the susceptibility of
individuals to radiation from molecular biology it is easy to
see that the current regulatory paradigm for radiation may not
be able to meet the future issues it will face. As we get more
information out of the Human Genome project, and genetic
susceptibilities are identified, the EPA will face a crossroad:
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to keep adding additional protection factors to the 'existing radon level is low. The testing and identification programs for
limits to protect a few individuals at higher risk than the rest radon would continue as they exist, but remediation programs
of the population, or to issue guidance that protects the overall would be more focused in terms of reducing risks where they
population to a certain risk limit while advising those more exist. This would result in programs that are more efficient
susceptible individuals to avoid "hot environments." A cur- and cost-effective. The incorporation of population suscepti-
rent example is indoor radon where the data would support an bility information into the regulatory programs will become
action level of ca. 10 pCi/L for nonsmokers, while smokers an important issue in the future, and EPA will be required to
may have an action level of ca. 2 pCi/L, yet the agency chose lead the federal government through their authority to issue
an aggregate risk estimate of 4 pCi/L. The implications of the guidance on radiation exposures. The agency should be pre-
former set of action levels would require clear policy state- pared to do so in a credible and effective manner.
ments that if you smoke you should ensure that your home's
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Appendix B
List of Refined Potential Future Issues Created by
Combining Like Future Issues in Appendix A*
(Notes: (1) Numbers in brackets indicate the collected issues of each issue if it were, in fact, to emerge as a future problem.
in Appendix A used in forming these issues; (2) original No inference should be made that these are possible actual
authors' words used to the extent possible to preserve meaning predictions, or that this is a comprehensive list of all possible
in the text of each issue; (3) highlighted captions, summariz- future issues. Rather, these issues are simply one set of
ing each issue, added. These summary statements of this set of possible issues requiring further investigation, analysis and
possible, future issues have been written to aid in issue possible aggregation. These possible future issues are listed in
evaluation against a set of criteria by making clear the nature no order of priority or importance.
Issue
Number Issue Category, Title And Description
Category
Human Health Effects and Human Health Risk Assessment
1. Health problems and social disorder result from environmental stress.
Stress, often induced by factors related to or enhanced by environmental degradation, may be growing and could
result in increased physical health problems and, for the people most sensitive to equity issues, to increased
violence. Improvement of environmental quality, particularly in areas of high population, can help reduce
antisocial behavior occurring in these areas. [1-10]
2. The information highway is found to produce psychological and societal impacts.
Stress from increased personal isolation and separation resulting from increasing use of the "information
highway" as the "highway" becomes more developed and encompassing may cause mental health risks and raise
serious societal divisions and related problems. Research on the psychological and societal impacts is needed.
[3-6]
3. New understanding of secondary air pollutants and their risks requires new risk control strategies.
Formation mechanisms for secondary pollutants such as ozone and fine particles (and visibility-reducing
regional haze) in the atmosphere through complex, nonlinear processes are not fully understood. It is further
complicated by "uncontrollable factors" such as natural emissions and meteorological influences. As we learn
more about such processes, we may have to rethink our present control strategy paradigm. [1-3]
4. The total toxic air burden, including synergisrn, requires new, simultaneous risk management.
Many chemicals are more harmful in genera] to human health and welfare when acting in the presence of other
chemicals. For example, ozone and particles often coexist and high levels of both together results in a suite of
adverse impacts. Thus, simultaneous risk management of the total air .burden is needed. [1-4]
5. Emphasis is placed on multiple end-points and multiple exposures requiring new risk management criteria.
A growing emphasis' on the risks of non-cancer health effects, including possible new effects (e.g., effects of
pollutants on aging), will lead to an encompassing form of human health risk assessment and management to
include multiple endpoints (including both cancer and non-cancer effects, together) under conditions of single
and multiple exposures (simultaneous or sequential). These developments can have profound effects on health
risk regulation, requiring the development and acceptance of criteria for the significance of "acceptability" of
various levels of such risks. Despite the growing debate there are only a few established criteria for
characterizing risks. [3-7 plus elements of 4-2, 5-11, 10-1]
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6. The application of major advances in basic biomedical sciences leads to radically new methods of human health
risk assessment and management.
Rapid strides in understanding human and animal biological and genetic mechanisms at the most basic levels
make it likely that significant biomarkers of exposure and of effect will be defined, that individual susceptibilities
to diseases will become well understood, and that in vitro and in vivo data and PBPK models will change how
human health risk assessment is done. These increases in understanding will help bring increased understanding,
as well, of structure-activity relationships and their improved application in health risk assessment. These
developments will greatly change the way human health risks are studied, assessed, regulated and managed.
[3-8,3-9,3-10] .
7, Methods to assess and manage exposures and risks from infectious agents are found to be inadequate.
Research is needed in developing risk assessment methods for use with infectious agents. Generally, actual levels
of exposure are not known; nor is how these factors can vary in their impact with susceptible populations. [8-1]
8. Technology to control newly recognized pathogens in drinking water is found to be inadequate.
Technology to control newly recognized pathogens in drinking water will be found to be inadequate. Actual levels
of exposure will not be known and will have to be determined. Risk assessment methods for use with such agents
are not now available. [6-9 plus elements of 8-1]
Category
Ecological Effects, Their Assessment and Management
9. The development of regional strategies for environmental assessment and protection is found necessary.
There is a need for the Agency to develop and implement a strategy that focuses future research and development
efforts on a regional or geographically oriented basis. Problems of natural resource protection, pollution
prevention, toxicant monitoring, water management and conservation, fisheries and wildlife protection, as
examples, all have a regional specificity that needs to be addressed if efficiencies are to be realized with the
limited available resources. Further, there is a need for interagency planning in this effort due to the severe
overlap in many critical areas of environmental concern (e.g., land use, water supplies, fisheries). This regional
type of effect could also address differences between laws of adjoining states that create critical rather than
supportive public responses. [8-2]
10. Increasing light pollution is found to be seriously disruptive to many species' physiology and behavior.
Light pollution: If energy becomes sufficiently inexpensive and widely available globally due to advances in
fusion and/or hydrogen technologies, it is likely that this energy will be used to light up the planet. Many animals
and plants use light cues to initiate their reproductive activities. Nocturnal animals have evolved life strategies
which partition niches based on night time activities. Excessive light could significantly disrupt plant and animal
physiology and behavior and have potentially significant effects on population distributions. [9-10]
11. Increasing noise pollution is found to disrupt many species'essential behavior patterns.
Noise pollution: a more populated earth with increased dependency on technology (machines) will also be a
noisier place. This noise has the potential to disrupt communication critical for reproductive behavior and
territorial defense for many species. Many birds use calls to mark and defend their territories. Whales whose
population numbers are small communicate over long distances. As noise pollution increases, interference with
essential communication activities will increase. [9-11]
12. Cumulative environmental stresses lead to increasing decline and die-off of sentinel species.
Individual organisms, populations, communities of organisms and ecosystems respond to the cumulative impacts
of stressors. Examples of significant ecological problems that appear to be caused by cumulative stresses are:
marine mammal die-off, forest decline, and coral reef bleaching. These phenomena appear to be increasing in
frequency and extent. Protecting ecological resources from cumulative stresses will require an integrated and long
term commitment to pollution prevention and resource protection. [9-13]
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13. The use of alternate energy sources leads to adverse impacts on environmental quality.
Energy and environmental quality: by the year 2030, the 22% of the energy supply that comes from nuclear power
plants will be essentially taken out of the U.S. energy supply unless the issues regarding nuclear energy are
resolved to the satisfaction of the people. Barring an unforeseen breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology,
fusion energy will not be the panacea to solve the energy question. Sustainable fusion reactions beyond the "break
even" point will require massive amounts of tritium; this will generate a new and different mix of radioactive
wastes that .is not completely understood at this time. Three scenarios are possible:
1. Greenhouse gases and nuclear waste concerns dominate the future view and no
nuclear or fossil energy production facilities come on line.
2 Greenhouse gases are the dominant concern in the future.
3 Nuclear issues are the dominant concerns and the nuclear power capacity goes
off-line by the year .2030.
In the first scenario clear and forceful policies for the rapid development of efficient, clean and reliable alternative
energy sources to replace the capacity lost as ageing plants are decommissioned are required. In the second
scenario effective policies for radioactive waste disposal must implemented; concerns of trust and safety must be
resolved. In the third scenario, efforts to control greenhouse gases are limited by the energy needs of the Nation
and new policies are required for the development of alternative energy sources as in the first scenario. The EPA
needs to take a central role in the decision-making that will shape the future of energy and the environment.
[11-1]
14. Global climate changes and stratospheric ozone depletion lead to adverse impacts on ecological systems.
Adverse ecological consequences of global climate change caused by build up of greenhouse gases and increases
in ultra violet light (UVb) caused by depletion of stratospheric ozone are a serious issue. Effects caused by these
stressors such as inundation of coastal wetlands and marshes from thermal expansion of the oceans and UVB
impacts on phytoplankton photosynthesis in the oceans may not be realized until many years in the future and may
bring about changes in plant and animal habitats, population centers, agriculture, energy use, etc. However,
because of long lag times in realizing the benefits of mitigation activities, efforts should be begun immediately to
address these issues. [7-6, 9-9]
15. Losses of monoculture crops occur because of the unexpected pathogens.
Loss of an annual crop such as wheat or com in the United States as a result of an unexpected pathogen perhaps
a mutant virus that successfully attacks a vulnerable, single species crop can result in food shortages in
countries that would have imported the crop and increased prices, as well as a search for new means of detecting
and dealing with plant pathogens and a call for crop diversity. [5-6]
Category
Human Health and Ecological Effects, Combined, and Their Assessment and Management
16. Animal and human health (e.g., reproductive capacity) and ecosystems are adversely affected by global
dispersion of estrogen-mimicking chemicals.
The increasing occurrence of adverse health effects in wildlife populations as a result of exposure to various
stressors, especially when more than one species is affected, may both indicate and pose risks to human health and
the environment. An example is the concern about "feminizing" of animal species and humans as a result of
exposure to estrogen-mimicking compounds in the environment. The monitoring of wildlife health, achieving
understanding of the relevant etiologies, and determining what effects may be indicated for human health or for
ecological damage is needed. [3-2,5-1,7-4]
17. Long-range transport and global accumulations of pollutants are found to be sources of adverse health and
ecological effects.
The atmospheric concentrations of globally dispersed pollutant trace gases such as ozone (O3), methane (CH4),
and of nitrous oxide (NO), carbon dioxide (CO2) and fine particles (FP), have been continuously increasing for
most or all of the twentieth century, as has the global dispersion of toxic trace elements and compounds that raise
the background soil and surface water deposition of these materials. These include lead (Pb), mercury (Hg),
arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) dioxins, and pesticides. Trends analysis of rising
background pollutant levels may provide early warnings about rising exposures of human and ecosystems that,
46
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with Improving exposure-response knowledge, could justify controls before waiting for more severe effects to be
established. Two examples are the effects "of rising background levels of O3 and FP on the mortality and
morbidity associated with daily peak levels of these pollutants, and the role of transport in the atmosphere on Hg
uptake in fish in distant lakes and its impact on Hg in human diet. [4-3]
18. The need is recognized to develop and use early warning signs and signals of potential environmental problems.
Elements of the environment that provide early signs provide guidance in developing a set of human health and
other environmental signals leading to recognition of potential problems while they are still tractable. Indicators
of environmental well being often are difficult to understand except in the case of visual air quality. Often the air
looks bad before other senses or body conditions suggest that something is unhealthy with the air. Use of haze as
an early warning signal has immediate and long term value. A comprehensive set of early warning signs has yet
to be identified. [1-9]
19. The introduction of exotic species into ecosystems requires the development of new methods for risk assessment
and-management.
Accidental or misguided introduction of exotic species and the increasing rates of introduction of a growing
variety of such species may pose new, unforeseen human health and ecological risks, as well as risks to
agriculture, both direct (from introduced species) and indirect (from species' alteration in the environment). The
species referred to may be plant or animal species, terre'strial or aquatic, macroscopic or microscopic; they may be
existing, exotic species (such as plants and animals spread by global trade and travel), bioengineered species,
"emerging" viruses, treatment-resistant bacteria, or others. Ecologically and historically, introduced species have
often out competed native species due to lack of predators and have disrupted the structure and functioning of
ecosystems (examples include: zebra mussel in the Great Lakes, asiatic clam, kudzu, chestnut blight, Dutch Elm
disease, water milfoil, hydrilla, mesquite, Japanese beetle, and the sea lamprey). Health threats, particularly of
bioengineered or altered species, are not well assessed. Methods for assessing or managing these risks are not
now available. [3-5, 7-11, 7-16, plus elements of 8-1, 9-6]
20. The need is recognized for establishing and maintaining an encompassing environmental data resource for risk
management purposes.
Providing an environmental data resource: risk assessment and risk management decisions would be much more
defensible and gain much wider acceptance if they could be based on an accessible, firmer, quality-assured, data
and knowledge base than now exists. Under typical current conditions, relevant data are either nonexistent, not
accessible, or of unknown specificity, relevance, or quality, or lack coordinate information that would make them
useful. The mature system would provide for uniform criteria for: a) data collection and entry into universal data
resource, b) reasonable and open access to universal data resource, c) inventory of data and periodic trends
analysis, d) ongoing system, of oversight, and e) periodic review of analysis based on usage of data resource.
[4-1]
21. The need is recognized to evaluate unregulated, unevaluated agents (existing and newly introduced) and their
unforeseen environmental impacts.
Environmental impacts of unmeasured or unevaluated chemicals and other agents need to be considered.
Unforeseen but potentially significant environmental impacts resulting from the development, use and disposal of
thousands of new chemicals per year, require attention. At present only chemicals cited in permits arid regulations
are monitored and measured. Previously, these were included in generic, conventional parameters such as BOD,
COD, TPH, suspended solids, etc. Now it is likely to be some set of specific chemicals, such as benzene,
naphthalene, chlorinated solvents, etc. There are, however, many other chemicals (and types of agents) released
to the environment that either in combination or alone can have a long term, slow but important effect not
appreciated. It 'is not prudent to attempt to measure the concentrations of all chemicals that are released.
However, there should be attempts to test the toxicity and identify the effects that such chemicals may have,
Other unevaluated agents can include release of bioengineered species, environmental estrogens. Indicators of
action or presence can be of many types such as the loss of specific species (frogs, birds, etc.) or the observation
of particular non-cancer adverse health effects in humans or animals. [7-10,10-1]
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Category
Radiation: Health and Environmental Assessment and Management
22. Major health hazards of nonionizing radiation are demonstrated.
Exposures to electromagnetic radiation resulting from the rapid proliferation of old and new technologies will
increase and nonionizing radiation could be demonstrated to be a major health and environmental threat. The
need for new exposure limits, monitoring, and revamping of products and electrical transmission infrastructure
will be recognized and better understanding of effects from these sources will be needed. [5-10,6-11,7-18,9-12]
23. Increasing ground-level UV radiation results in massive adverse effects on plant and animal life .
Potentially massive effects on plants and animal life caused by increased ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the
earth because of decreasing ozone concentrations in the upper atmosphere, caused by halogens (especially
chlorine) reacting with the upper atmosphere, requiring measures to greatly reduce releases of these chemicals to
the atmosphere. [7-5 plus elements of 9-9]
24. Releases of radioactive materials through accident, war or terrorism lead to the search for better control
mechanisms.
Release of highly radioactive material to the environment caused by accidental or intentional (war, terrorism)
events, require more control of these materials. [7-17]
Category
Land Use - . . '
25. Increasing environmental pressures require improved land use practices.
A new, integrated and holistic approach to land use will become more urgent as a part of achieving sustainable
development. Some of the factors that will require this are: the increasing need to prevent species and habitat
loss, the need to prevent the loss of productive agricultural land, the need to protect pristine lands, and the need to
provide for expanding human populations and their resource-using activities. Land use choices made without
. appropriate environmental considerations can prevent achievement of biodiversity and human welfare/health
goals. Furthermore, the current complexity of laws, regulations and ordinances can raise barriers to achieving
improved, overall land use and will only increase under these new pressures unless an integrated approach is
taken.' Providing for the re-use of already used, contaminated land and structures offers a part of the solution;
however, failure to establish a stance that can enable less costly and more timely redevelopment of urban sites
could force the development of more pristine land resources. Remediation criteria are needed for sites of all types
prior to re-use; decontamination to levels approaching pristine conditions may not be possible and may be too
costly compared to the benefits. Restricted use could restore some previously used sites to new industrial or other
economic use. [3-12, 4-4, 6-2, 6-13,7-1,7-2, 7-3,7-7,7-8, Plus elements of 9-5,9-7]
26. Increasing agricultural intensity in developing countries increases soil depletion, atmospheric particulates, and
desertification.
Large increases in agricultural intensity in developing countries particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and
Southeast Asia resulting from pressures to increase agricultural output to feed large indigenous populations ~ will
increase soil depletion, atmospheric particulates and desertification (African population is expected to rise from
600 million to over 1 billion by 2010; Population Reference Bureau, 1994). [5-5]
27. Inadequate capabilities exist to cope with the environmental consequences of natural disasters.
Present Agency (EPA) capability and readiness are inadequate to address potential environmental consequences
of natural disasters in the face of trends in population growth and land use. [6-3, 7-2]
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Category
Resource and Depletion
28, Biodiversity is lost as a result of habitat alteration and destruction.
The loss of biodiversity will become an issue of major importance in the future period under consideration. The
greatest stressor to the world's biological resources is alteration and loss of habitat. Loss, degradation and
fragmentation of habitat due to urbanization, land use changes associated with agricultural, and silviculture
activities, and transportation stress terrestrial biota. Land use choices made without appropriate environmental
considerations can prevent achievement of biodiversity and human welfare/health goals. Flow modifications,
channel alterations, damming, siltation, and nutrient enrichment eliminate and degrade aquatic habitats impact-
ing aquatic biota [2-1,6-13,9-5]
29. "Health" of the oceans deteriorates further.
There are signs, today, that the overall health of the oceans, and of the enormously complex ecologies therein, is
deteriorating. The maintenance of the health of the oceans needs to be addressed holistically and internationally
as population pressures and related drivers bring ever greater stress on the total set of the oceans' slow
regenerative capacities. Causes include overuse (such as over-fishing), the impacts of pollutant and solid waste
discharges and dumping by nations around the world, dumping and spills at sea, and the absorption of airborne
contaminants of all types. There is no one authority responsible for the health of the oceans. At risk is a major
source of the world's food supply, a major sink and transporter of CO2, a major producer of oxygen, and a highly
important climatological engine. The issue is likely to become acute within the period if present trends continue.
The issue is of global and critical importance. [3-3,10-2]
30. Fossil fuel depletion leads to use of other, contaminating, habitat-destructive alternatives.
Fossil fuel depletion will lead to use of energy resources having a greater potential for environmental
contamination and habitat loss. [6-8]
31. Adverse ecological effects result from over-exploitation of natural terrestrial resources
Adverse impacts on ecological systems are significant from over-exploitation of natural resources. Over-
drafting of grbundwater and surface water for irrigation, industrial use, and drinking water supply are
contributing to an increase in deserts in many parts of the world. Poor agricultural practices contribute to erosion
and. subsequent loss of soils. Non-sustainable harvesting of timber, particularly in the tropics, causes
unprecedented losses of biodiversity. Surface mining of minerals destroys terrestrial habitats and contaminates
aquatic ecosystems. The impacts of these problems are exponentially increased by increasing human popula-
tions multiplied by high consumption rates for energy and natural resources. Methods are required for holistic
ecosystem risk assessment and management capable of supporting sustainable development; operational
definitions of ecosystems which permit this to be done are not now available. [3-1, 7-2, .7-3, 7-14, 9-8]
32. The quality and quantity of surface and groundwater diminishes as a result of inefficient use and contamination.
Decreasing availability of the quantity and quality of surface and groundwater, resulting from inefficient use and
contamination, leads to a current and expanding need to research, develop and implement practices and
procedures that will provide adequate future supplies of renewable water in the United States. This could take
the form of measures to more efficiently use available resources, to protect and restore other resources for
sustainable use, or to develop altogether new solutions. For example, salt intrusion into primary aquifers from
run off and leaching into the soil can lead to the need for large scale desalination with concomitant price
increases. This could accelerate the search for plant species that can be irrigated with salt or brackish water.
[5-9,7-13,8-3]
Category
Climatological Effects and Their Assessment and Management
33. The need for understanding the mechanisms and effects of local climate change becomes apparent.
Local climate change effects: future, more complete definition of the mechanisms of global climate change
raises the possibility of identifying factors leading to adverse, local climate changes and effects and the need for
methods for their assessment and management. Public interest is likely, and effects on land use are likely to be
significant. [3-4]
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34. The need for understanding the dynamics of the counteracting effects of atmospheric particles and greenhouse
gases on global climate change becomes critical.
Primary particulates together with those formed from reactions involving carbon, nitrogen and sulfur may mask
the Greenhouse Effect by reflecting incident sunlight. Increases in urban nitrogen oxide and agricultural
ammonia emissions, widely dispersed, may stimulate carbon uptake in plant tissues of aggrading forests of the
northern hemisphere tP balance global carbon losses to the atmosphere from agriculture and deforestation, thus
postponing the rate of C02 accumulation in the atmosphere and delaying the Greenhouse Effect. Whether or hot
statistically significant increases in atmospheric temperature actually occur will have profound effects on the
urgency of taking corrective measures. Such measures could involve shifts in energy policy and/or simultaneous
management of CO,,, nitrogen compounds, particles and greenhouse gases. [1-1,1-2, 5-3, 5-4]
Category
r Intergovernmental - Governmental - Institutional
35. Local, regional, and global transport and accumulation of pollutants from developing countries becomes a major
international environmental problem.
Emissions of persistent, or long-lived, toxics as well as other air pollutants are a problem especially in developing
countries and especially in local areas where these air contaminants are prevalent in high concentrations. They
are also important globally because of long-range transport and transportation. These need proper consideration
in the environmental debate. [1-6]
36. Inefficient uses of energy for transportation and other sectors has growing adverse impacts on environmental
quality.
Broad ranges of environmental effects resulting from inefficient use of energy for transportation, industrial
purposes, and residential use requiring improved conservation and efficiency, and development of energy sources
with lower environmental impacts. For example, a review of our national transportation systems is needed to
determine what developments are desirable (what combinations of ground and air, long-haul and short-haul, and
new means of transportation such as very fast trains like the French TGVs) and what means and incentives are
needed to bring them about in a free society. [3-13, 7-12]
37, Increased use of lead and other metals in "clean" vehicles leads to increased potential for adverse impacts on
environmental quality.
Increased presence of lead and more exotic metals in the environment as a result of wide-spread acceptance of
electric or high efficiency automobiles. [5-7]
38. Urban infrastructure decay leads to additional and unexpected sources of adverse environmental incidents.
New and unexpected modes of introduction of pollutants and hazardous materials into the environment as a result
of the accelerating deterioration of urban infrastructure (decaying of sewer or natural gas pipes, for example) will
cause many serious environmental incidents. [5-8, 6-7]
39. The environment and U.S. industrial competitiveness are at risk from non-optimal environmental strategies and
their costs.
The environment and U.S. industrial competitiveness in the global marketplace are at risk if optimal (i.e., not
overshoot/undershoot) Agency policy options concerning clean technologies are not adopted. As the costs of
current environmental management strategies become more fully recognized by the public, EPA's programs may
be increasingly challenged. [6-1,6-4]
40. Industrial uses of wastes cause unexpected problems.
Unless appropriately deployed, industrial-ecology concepts will lead to uses of wastes by industrial/commercial
sectors that cause more problems than solutions. [6-5]
41. Scientific/technical core competencies in EPA prove to be inadequate when future challenges arise.
The Agency will not be able to meet future environmental challenges unless it endeavors to identify required core
technical and research competencies and, where needed, strives to strengthen them. (A Cross-Cutting Issue).
[6-12]
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42. Environmental problems result from rapid growth in developing countries.
Broad ranges of environmental problems resulting from rapid economic growth in the developing world,
requiring strategic technology planning, technology transfer, and negotiations to reduce or slow these impacts.
[7-9]
.43. Local climate changes and environmental impacts result from the use of alternative energy sources.
Environmental costs (localized climate change, decreased raptor populations) resulting from increased use of
"alternative" (solar, wind) power sources require more comprehensive planning for use of these technologies.
[7-15]
44. Environmental emergencies caused by accident, terrorism or c rime require enhanced capabilities for international
response.
International Incident Response: In order to achieve and maintain environmental goals in the United States EPA,
in concert with other countries' agencies, will need to develop the capability to respond throughout the world to
major releases due to industrial accidents and terrorist acts. Loss of environmental data archives, for example
(including, possibly, stored plant germ plasm), could occur as a result of unauthorized access by data terrorists or
destructive hackers. Weapons with new properties pose special problems. [5-2. 5-12, 6-6, 6-14]
45. Environmental degradation in developing countries is exacerbated by poorly controlled exports from developed
countries.
The transport of goods from developed to developing countries does not always follow good environmental
practices, further compounding environmental degradation in developing countries. Until clean technology is
available and used worldwide, pollution will continue to rise globally. [1-7]
Category
Socioeconomic
46. Voluntary mandates fail to produce changes in behavior needed to sustain and improve environmental quality.
Individual habits are a major factor determining pollution levels. However, voluntary mandates for personal
change do not seem to be effective in many areas, leading to a call for improved environmental education and
dialogue among individuals and institutions' to promote an awareness of common problems and a common
commitment to solutions developed by and for the public in general. [1-11]
47. Environmental inequity and environmental and economic stress lead to environmental apathy and violence.
Environmental Justice is an existing issue in the United States which can expand well beyond its present scope
and move in significant, additional directions. Worldwide, the lack of acceptance or empowerment felt by a
growing number of people may result in both increased violence and apathy especially for those people most
sensitive to economic and environmental stress. Because of this, plus the availability of harmful weapons, there
may be less respect, and even an indifference, for the world's environment and other humans. This almost
desperate situation makes it clear that environmental programs must be sensitive to equity issues and address the
need for bringing angry voices into the decision process. In the United States, now, research is needed to provide
the statistical and other evidence to ensure that policy decisions (and any concomitant legislative and/or
regulatory decisions) are the best that can be made in this politically sensitive and attractive arena. Examination
of current regulatory structures to determine which may be affected by the Environmental Justice issue (not only
those regulatory structures relating to site-related issues but all types of regulations) is needed to determine the
scope of the research issue and to set goals. [1-12, 3-11]
Category
Other Risk Management Issues
48. The continuing lack of societal consensus on criteria for "acceptable" risk requires resolution of the growing
debates on the subject.
There is a growing debate about the definition of "acceptable risk." There is increasing recognition that there are
few environmental exposures resulting from anthropogenic activities that do not create measurable effects on
human health and welfare and on ecological balance. There are, however, few established criteria for evaluating
51
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and characterizing the nature, distribution, and persistence of these effects, and their "acceptability" to affected
individuals or to society as a whole. There are many dimensions to be considered in defining the acceptability of
risk, such as: voluntary vs imposed; familiar vs exotic; transient vs persistent or irreversible; benefits to
compensate for risks accepted; personal vs societal; difficulty or cost of risk reduction; willingness to accept or
impose remedial costs, etc. EPA needs to consider how to engage appropriate stakeholders in developing and
refining criteria for defining acceptable risk for a variety of circumstances where anthropogenic activities can
increase and/or redistribute risks to ecological systems and/or human health and welfare. [4-2]
49. Preventing dispersion of chemicals from environmental reservoirs becomes more critical than point source
management. ' . >'
Managing environmental reservoirs, such as deposits of contaminated sediments, will become recognized to be
more critical than increasingly stringent point-discharge management. [6-10]
50. The discovery of adverse effects at ever lower exposures leads to the need to develop new means of managing the
net risks of multiple pollutant exposures.
As we continue to find biological impacts of pollutants at lower and lower concentrations, the paradigm of setting
standards at levels below which effects are seen (and with an adequate margin of safety) will need to be changed
to one that is based on comparative risk management. Furthermore, current approaches to environmental quality
management which focus on one issue at a time do not effectively deal with complex connections among
atmospheric processes, synergism of pollutants and resulting impacts, and overriding social and economic factors
which can delay or even deter implementation of strategies which affect the public in general. Recognition of this
situation is leading to a risk-based management treatment of environmental quality as a total system intimately
linked to other factors and to programs encouraging individual participation and commitment to pollution
prevention. (An "overarching" environmental quality issue). [1-5, 1-8]
*FolIowing completion and use of this list, a few further suggestions were made of issues that might possibly be
combined, as follows:
(1) Issues 8 and 32. Views on whether these could or should be combined were mixed.
(2) Issues 4 and 50. These can easily be combined.
(3) Issues 7 and 8. These can be combined provided the thoughts contained in each are fully and distinctly
preserved.
For any future use of this list it is suggested that Issues 4 and 50 should be combined into one issue and Issues 7 and 8 can
be combined into one issue, thus reducing the 50 refined issues to as few as 48.
52
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Appendix C
An Alternative Classification of the Refined Issues
issue Categories by Types Issues (Numbers as
of Stressors (Causes) in Appendix B)
Chemicals from Industrial/Commercial Operations 16,21,23,49
Particles from Industrial/Commercial Operations " , 34
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Harvesting/Extraction Operations 26,31
Natural Phenomena & Transient incidents 27, 38,44
Individual & Institutional Actions .25,28, 29,45,46
Governmental Actions ' 6,46,4750
Radiation Releases 22,24
Pathogens, Exotic Species, Engineered Organism
Releases , 7,8,15,19
Technology Change . 2,39,40,42
Population Growth 10,11 '
Energy Production/Use ' 13;" 14,30,36,37
Multi-Stressors without Predominance ' ' 1,3,4,17,35
New Information or Understanding 6, 9,12,18,20,
33,41,43,48
53
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Appendix D
Detailed Description of the Issue-Selection Criteria
Six major criteria have been defined and used for the purpose
of selecting issues for special consideration and highlighting.
These criteria are aimed at deciding whether or not a potential
issue will become a significant issue within the future time
period considered; whether what may now be only a dot on
the horizon will grow and become significant or will disap-
pear. The six criteria are (1) Timing, (2) Novelty, (3) Scope,
(4) Seventy, (5) Visibility, and (6) Probability.
The first five criteria describe and characterize an issue in
various ways, assuming that the issue actually develops as
foreseen, whereas the last criterion is predictive and describes
the likelihood that an issue will, in fact, develop and need to
be dealt with within the future time frame of interest.
In deriving these criteria two principles were adhered to
(1) That the major criteria should be as few in number as
possible in the interests of ease of application.
Clearly, if it were possible to have only one criterion the job of
selecting the issues best meeting that criterion or of highest
weight according to the criterion would be easy. The more
criteria there are the more difficult is the job of using them to
select issues of special interest, whether the criteria are ap-
plied qualitatively or according to some quantitative scoring
method (see Appendix E for a description of one quantitative
scoring method).
(2) That to the extent possible the major criteria be indepen-
dent of each other and capable of discrete, clear definition
and that where dependence occurs it should be clearly
indicated.
Independence is not entirely possible in all cases, or even
necessarily desirable; where it is not possible, the degree and
type of dependence must be clearly defined. For example,
Timing, Scope and Severity have a high degree of'indepen-
dence from each other whereas Visibility is in part dependent
on aspects of these three major criteria as well as on others,
yet it is an important criterion in its own right.
The first five criteria and their factors are described as fol-
lows:
(1) Timing: This criterion deals with when an issue will
become important: sooner (closer to the beginning of the
period considered), later (closer to the end of the period)
or throughout the period. Greater weight should normally
be given to this factor if the timing is sooner rather than
later. However, the importance of early recognition of an
issue, whatever its timing may be, must enter into the
weight given to the timing criterion. While some early-
occurring issues might automatically make early recogni-
tion important, some late-occurring ones might also if the
issue is especially consequential, if the issue or its conse-
quences are hard to define, if a long lead time is needed
for understanding the issue, if policy research, planning or
laboratory or field research efforts of major magnitude are
needed, or if the issue has particularly intractable prob-
lems or major uncertainties associated with it. A factor to
consider is whether there are already mechanisms in place
to address the issue.
(2) Novelty: This criterion involves consideration of what is
new about an issue but it also involves consideration of
whether sufficient attention is being given to the issue in
the near term whether the issue itself is new or not.
While this latter aspect of the criterion does not deal with
the novelty of the issue itself it does deal with an aspect of
novelty: a newly acquired perception of the amount of
attention an issue requires versus the attention it is getting.
The criterion might have been called Novelty and/or Inat-
tention but, always keeping the dual definition of novelty
in rnind, it is called, simply, Novelty.-
Pursuing the matter of Inattention further and its relation to
timing, there are few, if any, issues that will loom large on the
horizon within the first five years of the.time period that can
be rated "high" in terms of Novelty, However, their immi-
nence, in terms of potential for major impact on society, can
be very large and any failure or delay in recognizing the
significance of likely impacts and in developing and imple-
menting remedial actions could have serious consequences to
environmental quality and/or public health and welfare. For
purposes of assessing this dual criterion, some large-looming
issues that are already being addressed with significant inves-
tigational resources must be excluded, such as stratospheric
ozone depletion and global climate change. Rather, focus
should be on issues with likely major, near-term impacts that
are not receiving strategic evaluation and contingency plan-
ning; in other words, on issues that are suffering from a lack of
sufficient attention. Hence the designation of this aspect of the
dual criterion as "Inattention."
In weighing the dual criterion, near term issues might suffer if
weighed only on the basis of their own novelty: weighed low
on the basis of this aspect, they might nevertheless weigh high
on the basis of Inattention and both must be considered.
Thus, a high degree of Novelty, per se, together with a high
degree of Inattention gives this dual criterion of Novelty high
weight, whatever the Timing might be.
In judging the weight to be given to the dual criterion called
Novelty, the criterion of Timing is, important and, therefore, it
54
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is suggested that it be considered and defined before the dual
criterion is considered. Following this suggestion Timing is
here listed first among all the criteria.
When considering the Novelty of an issue, itself, consider-
ation should be given to whether an issue is: a wholly new
issue, a significant modification of an existing issue or class of
issues, a change of direction of an existing issue or class of
issues, a newly recognized aspect of an existing issue, and/or
whether new thinking is required or new options must be
considered. In. addition to considering what is new about an
issue, perceptions of what are new issues, and what are new
ways to deal with existing problems are important.
In weighing this part of the dual criterion (Novelty, per se) it
is recognized that there will often be an existing base of
scientific and technical information around an issue and that
there will often be groups of individuals who recognize it as
an important issue. The existence of such information or of
groups of interested people does not negate the novelty of the
issue. Rather, novelty, in addition to capturing wholly new
issues, is meant to capture issues which are not generally
accepted as matters of concern. One needs to consider whether
the issue is generally not accepted as important, or is known
or perceived to be an important issue, by one or more groups
such as the technical/scientific community, academia in gen-
eral, governmental personnel, and/or the population as a whole.
(3) Scope: This is an extensive criterion of magnitude dealing
with the breadth or extent of the issue with respect to the
following different kinds of factors: (1) geographic range:
local, regional, national or international; (2) population
affected: many or few people are affected or a large or
small percentage of people are affected; (3) ecosystems
affected: many or few ecosystems or ecoregions are af-
fected or a large or small percentage of such systems or
regions are affected; (4) environmental coverage: the is-
sue has broad or narrow environmental effects or it affects
a large or small percentage of different types of environ-
ments; (5) socioeconomic factors: the breadth of impact in
this area (how broadly are societal institutions and soci-
etal factors affected: education, jobs, etc.); (6) temporal
scope: whether the issue is a long term, persistent issue or
a shorter term one; (7) impact on regulatory or legislative
activity: the degree of pertinence to many or few regula-
tory or legislative areas or to a large or small percentage of
such areas; and (8) agencies affected: the issue is pertinent
only to the EPA, it is pertinent to other agencies, or it is
pertinent to both. It is important, when considering Scope,
to define which of the different types of scope are relevant
to the assessment being made.
(4) Severity. This is an intrinsic and/or intensive criterion of
magnitude dealing with the depth or intensity of impact,
or the seriousness of the consequences of an issue: the
physical, health, ecological, socioeconomic (how deeply
are societal institutions and societal factors affected: edu-
cation, jobs, etc.), legislative,,.regulatory, and welfare
consequences and, in particular, the irreversibility of the
effects involved, or of the consequences of, the issue. The
time needed to reverse an adverse effect or the rate of
reversibility are further determinants of Severity.
(5) Visibility: The "visibility" of an issue refers to the degree
to which it is or can become visible as a public issue: to
influential groups, to the media, to the political establish-
ment, to the public as a whole. To assess the weight this
criterion might have, the following characteristics of the
issue need to be considered: its scientific, technical and/or
economic plausibility; its political appeal; the recognition
it is likely to receive by special groups; and its public
comprehension and appeal (including the possibility of
the fear of imminent personal harm). Visibility is also
dependent on components of the first four issues. For
example, if a large population were to be affected (under
Scope), if Novelty were to include a new, important haz-
ard, if Severity of an effect, especially on people, were to
be large, or if the issue is expected to become a significant
, factor sooner rather than later (Timing) all would in-
crease the Visibility and all must be considered. Since all
these prior criteria must be considered in assessing Vis-
ibility after assessing the first four criteria are assessed is
recommended.
(6) Probability, is the sixth major criterion; it assesses the
likelihood that the issue will need to be addressed. It is an
integrative and a predictive criterion, highly dependent on
the first five criteria.
It expresses the likelihood that an issue will rise to promi-
nence by or within the time period in question and have to
be dealt with in the period. It is integrative because all five
of the preceding criteria, plus other factors, must be
considered in assessing it and it is predictive since it
predicts whether an issue is likely to become prominent
within the future time frame of interest; it is not a charac-
teristic of the issue, per se.
One might view the assessment of Probability as involving
the estimation of the joint probability of an issue rising to
prominence as a result of two other probabilities: (a) the
probability that the issue will arise and need to be dealt with
because of scientific, technical or other similarly definable
reasons whether or not it is publicly visible and (b) the
probability that the issue will arise because, whatever its
scientific or technical basis, it has strong public and/or politi-
cal appeal (Visibility plays a major role in determining this
probability). These two probabilities are not independent of
each other, and either one, separately, or both together, can
cause a given issue to rank highly with respect to the joint or
overall Probability. Specifying whether it is one of the two
probabilities, or both together, which most determines the
assessment of the Probability of the issue is important in issue
selection.
Estimating the weight of this criterion requires considering
the five other criteria already defined and, also, the issue's
sensitivity (or lack of same) to scenarios (if these have been
defined), and/or to driving forces.
55
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Appendix E
Example of a Scoring Matrix
Introduction
Suppose a decision has to be made that requires the selection
of one possible decision from many choices. If a clear winner
is apparent, the decision is easy; however, in the real world
one alternative may be better than the others in one but worse
in other respects. When criteria are in conflict, how can a
rational selection be made? One approach is the use of a utility
matrix, a technique from the field of operations research. In
this method, a list of selection criteria is first made. These
criteria define the elements of a good decision such as low
cost, low risk and high payoff. The criteria may not have equal
weight; for example, low risk may be more important than
low cost. Once the criteria and their weights are in hand, each
alternative decision is reviewed in terms of each criterion. The
review is usually conducted in matrix form, the alternative
decisions in the rows and the criteria in the columns. Judg-
ments about how each decision meets each criterion are
placed in the cells, and a score is computed based on the
weighted sums of the cells in the rows. All other things being
equal, the decision that gains the highest score is the one that
comes closest to meeting the ideal decision that would best
satisfy all criteria.1
There are difficulties with this approach. First of all, a simple
weighted sum may not reflect the actual decision process. For
example, one decision may gain a high overall score despite a
low score with respect to a single criterion. Yet this criterion
may be absolutely necessary. One approach to meeting this
difficulty is to use a formulation other than a simple weighted
sum. A necessary criterion may be treated as a multiplicative
element: if a decision rates a score of zero with respect to the
necessary criterion, the total score will also be zero.
In addition, the method, while systematic, is almost entirely
subjective. Thus two different people are apt to fill in the
matrix differently and obtain different scores. If several people
complete the matrix, the question remains: how should dispar-
ate opinions be combined? If an average is used, it will be
distorted by extreme opinions. Perhaps the entire matrix should
be completed by all participants and the rank order of the
decisions compared.
Finally, the scores produced by such matrices may be sensi-
tive to small changes in input.
Nevertheless, the method is useful when many potentially
conflicting decision criteria are involved. It helps sort out
what's really important and at very least is capable of separat-
ing the subset of best decisions from the worst.
The method can be used to screen issues in EPA's early
warning system. The system can generate a plethora of poten-
tial future issues. But which of these deserves priority? The
criteria for selecting -issues from the longer list include (as
explained elsewhere in this report) novelty, scope, severity,
visibility, timing and probability. The last criterion is of a
different sort than the former five which are in fact, elements
of an issue's impact. With this scheme, an issue with highest
priority would be one that is entirely novel, severely affects
essentially everyone, is publicly visible, apt to be felt soon,
and is highly probable 'to emerge.
Test Example
To illustrate the method, a single member of the group pre-
pared a scoring matrix for the set of fifty issues. The judg-
ments were completely subjective and represented only a
single person's view about what's important. This illustration
is presented in Tables 1 and 2 and in Figures 1 and 2.
The weights assigned to the impact criteria were
Novelty 10
Scope 7
Severity 10
Visibility 5
Timing 5
Judgments were placed in the matrix cells according to the
following scale:
Timing 1= +20 years in the future
Novelty 1= old hat
Scope 1= affects almost no one
Severity 1= slight effect
Visibility 1= will be of very little interest
5= immediate
5= never been seen before
5= affects everyone
5= human death
5= will be of great interest
'This type of scoring system is recommended, for example, in EPA's
"Guidebook for Comparing Risks and Setting Environmental Priorities,
"EPA/230/B93/013 (1993).
The probability judgments were entered in percentage terrns
that is likelihood of occurrence, and the weight used for the
probability judgments was .5. Thus, 100% probability had an
effect on the total score of an issue that was equal to a novel
issue that had "never been seen before."
56
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Table 1 presents the issues and judgments in numerical se-
quence. Note that for each issue both an "impact score"
(composed of timing, novelty, scope, severity, and visibility
and) and a total score that adds to the impact score the product
of .5 and probability. Figure I presents a graph of impact score
vs. probability for each issue. Table 2 presents the issues in
rank order according to total score; the total scores are shown
in bar graph form in Figure 2.
The top rated issues were
32 Decreasing availability of the quantity and quality of
surface groundwater
26 Large increases in land use in developing countries lead
to soil depletion, atmospheric particulates and desertifi-
cation
44 Environmental emergencies caused by accident, terror-
ism, or crime
29 Health of the oceans deteriorates further
8 Technology to control newly recognized pathogens in
drinking water is found inadequate
49 Contamination from dispersion of chemicals from stor-
age reservoirs, more critical than management of point
sources
7 Exposure to infectious agents becomes EPA concern
13 Adverse impacts of alternate energy sources on envi-
ronmental quality .
22 Demonstration of a major health hazard from non ioniz-
ing radiation
35 Emissions of persistent toxics and pollutants in devel-
oping countries, transported globally by long range
atmospheric mechanisms
Analysis
Analyses of this sort should be used only to separate top rated
issues from lower rated issues. It is inappropriate to argue on
the basis of such an analysis that, say, issue 22 (ranked 9th) is
more important than issue 35 (ranked 10th). The score differ-
ence between the two is insignificant and a small change in
one judgment can swamp the small score differences that
were computed.
To illustrate the sensitivity of such an analysis to variations in
judgments, consider how changes to the entries for issue 32,
the top rated issue would change the outcome. Suppose that
instead of judgment of "5" for severity, a "4" was substituted.
This change drops the rank of this issue from the top of the list
to 3rd, and dropping it to "3" would place the issue as 6th. In
other words, it would have remained in the top 10, despite
such changes.
A very interesting use of the results of such an analysis is
depicted in Figure 1. By plotting impact score against prob-
ability it is possible to identify regions of relative risk and
return. For example:
High Impact, High Probability: These issues should clearly
be given priority
High Impact, Low Probability: These are the surprise
issues and preparation for them, despite their low prob-
ability may.be appropriate
Low Impact, High Probability: These issues may be on us
soon so preparation may be in order
Low Impact, Low Probability: These issues should not be
on the urgent list
A prudent R&D program may cut diagonally across Figure 1,
indicating a portfolio of issues for attention that includes
essentially all high impact, high probability issues as well as
moderate to high impact, lower probability issues.
Qne variation on this theme may be of interest. Suppose a
group begins the exercise by assigning a total score to each of
the issues, based purely on judgment. If the issues are then
judged in the matrix form described above, it is possible to
perform a regression analysis and deduce the criterion weights
that come closest to "explaining" the assigned initial scores.
57
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Table
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
g
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
1. Issue Scoring Example
Novelty
Development 10*
Environmental stresses cause of health
. problems and social disorder
Information highway causes psychological
and societal impacts
Secondary pollutants found toxic
Synergistic chemicals found toxic, requiring
management of the total, toxic air burden
Non cancer health effects emphasized leading
to multiple end point human health risk
assessment
Application of biological and genetic
mechanisms to blomarkers, leading to
changes in the way human health risks are
studied
Exposure to infectious agents becomes
EPA concern
Technology to control newly recognized
pathogens in drinking water is found
inadequate
Regional specificity becomes necessary in
developing strategies for environmental
protection
Ecological effects of light pollution found
disruptive
Ecological effects of noise pollution found
to disrupt communications and territorial
response in many species
Cumulative stresses on sentinal species
result in Increasing frequency of die-off
Adverse impacts of alternate energy sources
on environmental quality
Adverse ecological consequences of global
climate changes
Loss of an annual crop in US as a result of
unexpected pathogen
"Feminizing" of animal species and humans
resulting from exposure to estrogen-mimicking '
chemicals
Long-range transport of pollutants found to
be an important mechanism in accumulation
of pollutants with severe effects
Recognition of the need to cjeyelop early
warning signs and signals of potential
environmental problems
Introduction of exotic species into new
ecosystems
Recognition that data needed for
environmental policy making are lacking
Unforeseen environmental impacts' from the
introduction of new chemicals
Demonstration of a major health hazard
from non ionizing radiation
Great impacts on plants and animals of
increasing ground level UV radiation
Release of radioactive material to the
environment caused by accident, war or
terrorism
2
1
4
3
4
4
3
2
2
.'3
2
2
2
2
3
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
3
Scope
7.
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
3
3
3
5
3
4
4
4
4
3
3
4
5
3
5
Severity
10*
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
.5
2,
2
2
2
5
3
4
4
;3
3
3
2
3
4
3
5 '
Visibility
' 5*
2
4
1
2
2
Z
4
.5
2
1
1
2
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
4
2
'Timing
5*
3
3
3
2
4
3
3
4
3
1
2
2
3
3
3
4
3
3
4
3
3
4
3
3
Impact
Score
86
86
118
108
128
123
140
150
93
81
76
81
140
101
123
138
123 -
123
111
96
113
150
106
140
Probability
0.5*
35
35
75
85
iO
95
90
98
r
45
25
25
95
85 .
90
25
75
65
50
85
75
95
65
50
60
(continued)
Total
Score
103.5
103.5
155,5
150.5
173
170.5
185
199
115.5
93.5
88.5
128.5
182.5,
146
135.5
175*5
155.5
148
153.5
133.5
160.5
182.5
131
170
"Denotes weight
58
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Table
No..
25 '".
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
I. Continued
Novelty
Development 10*
Need for improved land use planning, including
prevention of habitat loss, remediation, and
urban land use
Large increases in land use in developing
countries lead to soil depletion, atmospheric
particulates and desertification
inadequate response to the environmental
consequences of natural disasters
Loss of biodiversity as a result of loss and
alteration of habitat
Health of the oceans deteriorates further
Fossil fuel depletion leading to greater
use of resources that cause contamination
and habitat loss
Over exploitation of natural resources leading
to adverse ecological impacts
Decreasing availability of the quantity and
quality of surface groundwater
Need for understanding the mechanisms and
effects of local climate changes
Masking of greenhouse effects by counter-
balancing effects of particuiates that reflect
incident sunlight
Emissions of persistent toxics and pollutants
in developing countries, transported globally
by long-range atmospheric mechanisms
Inefficient use of energy for transportation
resulting in a broad range of environmental
effects
Increased presence of lead and exotic metal
resulting from use in electric or high
efficiency vehicle
New and unexpected modes of introduction of
pollutants and hazardous materials as a result
. of decay of urban infrastructure
Adverse effects on US industrial
competitiveness as a result of non optimal
environmental policies
Uses of wastes (encouraged by industrial
ecology) leads to more problems than
solutions
Lack of core competencies at EPA
Environmental problems resulting from rapid
economic growth in developing countries
Localized climate change and other
environmental effects resulting from use of
alternate power sources
Environmental emergencies caused by
accident, terrorism, or crime
Environmental degradation resulting from the
export of goods from developing countries
Voluntary mandates fail to produce desirable
changes In behavior affecting pollution levels
Lack of acceptance or empowerment results
violence and apathy, especially among people
who are sensitive to economic and
environmental Issues
2
3
4
3
2 ,
2
2
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5.
2
3
4
4
4
3
5
Scope
T':-
2
5
3
3
5
3
3
4
2
5
5
3
3
4
3
3
3
5
3
5
3
2
3
Severity
10*
2
5
4
4
5
3
3
5 "
2
5 .
4
3
3
3
2
. 3
3
4
3
5
3
3
3
Visibility Timing Impact
5* 5* ' Score
3 4 89
4 4 155
2 4 131
4 3 126
5 S* 155
3 2 96
3 2 96
5 5 168
2 2 94
5 2 160
3 4 150
3 2 116
2 3 126
2 '3 133
2 3 116
.2 ..- 3 126
2 5 106
33 135
2 2 111
4 4 165
3 3 121
2 3 99
3'3 131
Probability
0.5*
95
95'
70
85
90
95
90
85
25
25
65
45
40
80
35
30
185
95
25
75
35
85
75
(continued)
Total
Score
136,5
202.5
166
168.5
200
143.5
141
210.5
106.5
172,5
182.5
138.5
146
173
133,5
141
148.5
182.5
123.5
202.5
138:6
141.5
168.5
59
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Table 1. Continued
No.
Development
Novelty Scope Severity Visibility Timing Impact Probability Total
10* 7* 10* 5* 5* Score 0.5* Score
48
49
Growing debate about the definition of 433
"acceptable risk"
Contamination from dispersion of chemicals 4 4 5
3 2 118 65 148.5
3 4 " 153 80 193
from storage reservoirs, more critical than
management of point sources
50 Continual discovery of biological impacts of
pollutants at lower and lower concentrations
requiring development of a new means of
managing net risks
131
95 178.5
Table 2.
No.
32
26
44
29
8
49
7
13
22
35
42
50
Issue Scoring Example: Rank Order
Novelty Scope Severity Visibility Timing
Development 10* 7* 10* 5* 5*
Decreasing availability of the quantity .4 4 5 5 5
and quality of surface ground water
Large increases in land use in developing 35 5 4 4
countries lead to soil depletion,
particulates and desertification
Environmental emergencies caused by 4 5 ' 5 44
accident, terrorism, or crime
Health of the oceans deteriorates further 25555
Technology to control newly recognized 2 5.5 5 4
pathogens In drinking water is found
inadequate
Contamination from dispersion of 44534
chemicals from storage reservoirs, more
critical than management of point sources
Exposure to infectious agents becomes 3 54 4 3
EPA concern
Adverse impacts of alternate energy 25543
sources on environmental quality
Demonstration of a major health hazard 3 5 4 5 4
from non ionizing radiation
Emissions of persistent toxics and 45434
in developing countries, transported
globally by long-range atmospheric
mechanisms
Environmental problems resulting from 3 5 4 33
rapid economic growth in developing
countries
Continual discovery of biological impacts 43433
of pollutants at lower and lower
concentrations, requiring development
of a new rfteans of managing net risks
Impact Probability Total
Score 0.5* Score
168 85 210.5
210.5
155 95 202.5
202.5
202.5
' 185 75 202.5
202.5
155 90 200
150 98 199
199
199
153 80 193
i93
183
140 90 185
185
140 85 182,5
' 182.5
150 65 182,5
182.5
150 65 182.5
182.5
182.5
135 95 182.5
182.5
131 95 . 178.5
' 178.5
178,5
178.5
RANK
1
1
2
2
2
3
3
4
5
5
5
6.
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9-
10
10
10
11
11
12
12
12
12
(continued)
*Denotes weight.
60
-------
Table 2.
No.
16
5
38
34
6
24
28
47
27 '
21
3
17
19
4
41
48
18
14
37
Continued.
Novelty Scope Severity Visibility Timing
Development 10* 7* 10* 5* 5*
"Feminizing" of animal species and 44424
humans resulting from exposure to
estrogen-mimicking chemicals
Noncancer health effects emphasized 44324
leading to multiple end point human
health risk assessment
New and unexpected modes of 54323
introduction of pollutants and
hazardous materials as a result of
decay of urban infrastructure
Masking greenhouse effects by counter- 45552
balancing effects of particulates that
reflect incident sunlight
Application of biological and genetic 4 4 3.2 3
mechanisms to biomarkers, leading to
changes in the way human health risks
are studied
Release of radioactive material to the 3 5 52 3
environment caused by accident, war, or
terrorism
Loss of biodiversity as a result of loss 33443
and alteration of habitat
Lack of acceptance or empowerment 53333
results in violence and apathy, especially
among people who are sensitive to
economic and environmental stress
Inadequate response to the environmental 4 3 4 2 4
consequences of natural disasters
Unforeseen environmental impacts from 3 4 3 23
the-introduction of new chemicals
Secondary pollutants found toxic 44313
Long-range transport of pollutants 44323
found to be an important mechanism in
accumulation of pollutants with severe
effects
Introduction of exotic species into new 3 3.3 2 4
ecosystems
Syriergistic chemicals found toxic, 3 43 2 2
requiring management of the total,
toxic air burden
Lack of core competencies at EPA 2 3 3 2.5
Growing debate about the definition of 4 3 3 32
"acceptable risk"
Recognition of the need to develop early 44 3 23
warning signs and signals of potential - -_ ,. ,. . .. .
environmental problems
Adverse ecological consequences of 2 3 3 3 3
global climate changes
Increase presence of lead and exotic 5 3 3 2 3
metals resulting from use in electric or
high efficiency vehicles
Impact Probability Total
Score 0.5* Score
138 75 175.5
175.5'
175.5
128 90 173
173
173
133 80 173
173
173
160 25 172.5
172.5
172.5
123 95 170.5
170.5
170.5
170.5
140 60 170
- 170
170
126 85 168.5
168.5
131 75 168.5
168.5
168.5
168.5
131 70 166
166
113 95 160.5
160.5
118 75 155.5
123 65 155.5
155.5
155.5
111 85 153.5
153.5
108 85 150.5
150.5
106 85 148.5
116 65 148.5
1 48.5
123 '50 148
148
148
101 90 146
146
126 40 146
146
146
(continued)
RANK
13
13
13
14
13
13
13
13
13
14
14
14
15
15
17
17
18
18
18
19
19
19
19
19
21
22
22
23
23
24
24
24
24
25
25
26
26
27
27
27
28
28
28
29
29
29
29
29
61
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Table 2. Continued.
Novelty Scope
No. Development 10* 7*
30
46
31
40
36
45
25
15
20
39
23
12
43
9
33
1
2
10
11
Fossil fuel depletion leading to greater 2 3
use of resources that cause contamination
and habitat loss
Voluntary mandates fail to produce 3 2
desirable changes in behavior affecting
pollution levels
Over exploitation of natural resources 2 3
leading to adverse ecological impacts
Uses of wastes (encouraged by 5 3
industrial ecology) leads to more
problems than solutions
Inefficient use of energy for transportation 4 3
resulting in a broad range of
environmental effects
Environmental degradation resulting 4 3
from the export of goods from
developing countries
Need for improved land use planning, 2 2
including prevention of habitat loss,
remediation, and urban land use
Loss of an annual crop in US as a result 3 4
unexpected pathogen
Recognition that data needed for 3.3
environmental policy making are lacking
Adverse effects on US industrial 5 3
competitiveness as a result of non-
optimal environmental policies
Great impacts on plants and animals of 2 3
increasing ground level UV radiation
Cumulative stresses on sentinal species 2 3
result in increasing frequency of die-off
Localized climate change and other 4 3
environmental effects resulting from use
alternate power sources
Regional specificity becomes necessary 2 4
developing strategies for environmental
protection
Need for understanding the mechanisms 4 2
and effects of local climate changes
Environmental stresses cause of health 2 3
problems and social disorder
Information highway causes psychological 1 3
and societal impacts
Ecological effects of light pollution found 3 . 3
disruptive
Ecological effects of noise pollution found 2 3
to disrupt communications and territorial
response in many species
Severity Visibility Timing Impact Probability Total
10* 5* 5* Score 0.5* Score
3 3 2 96 95 143.5
143.5
143.5
3 2 3 99 85 141.5
141.5
3 3 2 96 90 141
141
3 2 3 126 30 141
141
3 3 2 116 45 138.5
138.5
3 3 3 121 35 138.5
138.5
2 3 4 89 95 136.5
136.5
136.5
423 123 25 135.5
135.5
2 2 3 96 75 133.5
133.5
2 2 3 116 35 133.5
133.5
133.5
3 4 3 106 50 131
131
22 2 81 95 128.5
128.5
3 22 111 25 123.5
123.5
123.5
2 2 3 93 45. 115.5
115.5
115.5
2 2 2 94 25 106.5
106.5
2 2 3 86 35 103.5
103.5
24 3 86 35 103.5
103.5
2 1 1 81 25 93.5
93.5
2 1 2 76 25 88.5
88.5
88.5
RANK
30
30
33
34
34
35
35
35
35
36
36
36
38
39
39
39
40
40
41
40
40
40
40
41
41
42
42
43
43
43
44
44
44
45
45
46
46
46
46
47
47
50
50
50
62
-------
120
100
80
.Q
0)
-d
o
60
40
20
H
12
m
25
&
30-
13 EEI9
31 14
H EE E
46 41419
20
21
H
6
E
3
0
2
E El
11 10
E
9
33
23
48
m
36
E
17
E E
a5042 m
5 7
S H
28 13
19
38
B E
47 16
B
27
E
24
18
a ia
39 45
0
37
H
43
.40
,15
26
E
29
49
E
22
32
H
44
34
50
100
150
200
.Impact
Figure 1. Issues: Impacts vs. Probability.
(The numbers identify the specific issue evaluated.)
63
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250
200
150 -
1 3 5 7 9 11. 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
100 -
Figure 2. Total Scores for the Issues.
(This rank order plot is derived from the data in Table 2.)
64
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Appendix F
A Set of Eleven Overarching Issue Areas
(Not listed in any order of preference)
NOTE: With the descriptive title of each overarching issue
area two sets of numbers are given: in Arabic numerals, the
collected issues listed Appendix A relevant to these issues;
and in Roman numerals, the preliminary overarching issue
areas listed in Appendix G. Not all of the underlying potential
problems have been used explicitly in formulating the de-
scriptions of the overarching issue areas although all have
been considered. To the extent possible, the wording of the
originators of the issues has been used so as to preserve
meaning; where necessary additional or modified wording has
been provided. The descriptive titles are written as though, in
a future time, the problems associated with the issue areas are
in existence. -
No inference should be made that these are possible actual
predictions, or that this is a comprehensive list of all possible
future issues. Rather, these issues are simply one set of
possible issues requiring further investigation, analysis and
possible aggregation. These possible future issues are listed in
no order of priority or importance.
A. Energy Choices, Worldwide, Increase the Total Load-
ings and Adverse Impacts of Pollutants 1-3,1-4,1-5,
1-6,1-8, 4-3; I.
Continued and, in significant areas of the world, increasing
use of fossil fuels as a main source of energy, without fully
adequate, increasingly stringent, pollution controls, will lead
to increasing pollution burdens and impacts on human and
ecosystem health, worldwide. In many areas of the world,
where fossil fuels remain the primary energy choice, develop-
ment will remain closely linked to fossil fuel use.
Pollution of the air, water and land result from current fossil
fuel burning: from contaminants directly emitted into the air;
from contaminants formed in the air as a result of chemical
reactions involving emitted contaminants; from deposition of
some atmospheric contaminants into water and land; and from
those solid and liquid wastes which are also pollution by-
products of fossil fuel use and which contaminate both water
and land directly.
The effects of pollution range from immediate local insults to
longer range, regional impacts to global climate change. Many
contaminants deposit onto the land and into the waterways at
locations far removed from the original emission sites. Also,
the increase in air pollutants is already resulting in an increase
in global background levels of harmful agents. Pollutants that
react chemically to form ozone, haze and acids cause prob-
lems on a regional scale and carbon dioxide, which does not
enter into these types of reactions, is a major by-product of
fossil fuel burning; it diffuses into all levels of the atmo-
sphere, including the stratosphere, and can affect temperature
and rainfall balances worldwide.
Current approaches to air quality management which focus on
one issue at a time do not effectively deal with complex
reaction sequences among atmospheric constituents, syner-
gism between pollutants (including trace contaminants and
particulates), emissions of persistent, or long-lived, toxics as
well as other air pollutants, the accumulation of contaminants
over time, and their dispersion and transport, inter-regionally
and internationally. Developing countries, through their rapid
expansion in the use of local wood and coal as fuel sources,
pose particular problems to themselves and others as well as
to specific, local areas where air contaminants are prevalent in
high concentrations.
Recognition of this situation by national and international
authorities must lead to risk-based management of air quality
as a total system intimately linked to other factors and to
programs encouraging individual participation and commit-
ment to pollution prevention.
Trends analysis of rising background pollutant levels should
provide early warnings about rising exposures of humans and
ecosystems that, with improving exposure-response knowl-
edge, could justify risk management actions before waiting
for more severe effects to be established.
As we learn more about persistent pollutants, their interac-
tions and transport, the United States' present control strategy
paradigm will have to be rethought (simultaneous risk-man-
agement of the total air burden may be needed) and interna-
tional cooperation will be required.
B. Global Warming Becomes a Reality and Leads to
Global and Local Climate Changes and Other Com-
plex Consequences - 1-1,1-2,1-3, 3-4, 5-3, 5-4,7-5,7-
6,11-1, plus elements of 6-3; II.
Global warming is a well recognized issue, the subject, today,
of much research, speculation and uncertainty. Major uncer-
tainties exist as to if, when, and to what degree global warm-
ing will occur, possible mitigating mechanisms, and whether
or not its effects will be more adverse than beneficial, overall.
In the meantime numerous specific questions surrounding the
interrelated issues need attention and a concerted effort to
seek out and investigate such questions is needed. Some
examples are
Primary particles along with those formed from chemical
reactions involving sulfur, nitrogen and carbon may be
reflecting solar radiation back into space, thereby mask-
65
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ing the greenhouse effect over some parts of the earth.
Formation mechanisms for secondary pollutants such as
ozone and fine particles (and visibility-reducing regional
haze) in die atmosphere through complex, nonlinear pro-
cesses are not fully understood. It is further complicated
by uncontrollable factors such as natural emissions and
meteorological influences. Better understanding of the
simultaneous effects of particles, particle precursors and
greenhouse gases is needed to devise appropriate risk
management plans.
« Increased nitrogen-containing emissions (urban nitrogen
oxide and agricultural ammonia emissions) may stimu-
late carbon uptake in plant tissues and thus may tend to
balance global carbon losses to the atmosphere from
agriculture and deforestation. Nitrogen fertilization may
therefore serve to postpone the rate of CO2 accumulation
in the atmosphere.
Future, more complete definition of the mechanisms of
global climate change raises the possibility of identifying
factors leading to adverse, local climate changes and the
need for methods for their risk assessment and manage-
ment. An example is the possibility of increased storm-
system intensity, frequency and geographic coverage
caused by the transformation of some of the additional
thermal atmospheric energy of global warming into the
mechanical energy of moving air masses.
If the belief prevails and/or evidence shows that signifi-
cant global warming will occur and that its effects are,
overall, adverse, the selection and implementation of
energy policies will be affected by factors such as whether
concerns over greenhouse gas emissions or nuclear waste
disposal or a combination of the two concerns
dominate. Several scenarios based on these concerns
could affect energy policy choices between the utilization
of: (a) nuclear fission (or possibly, in the future, fusion);
(b) fossil fuels; (c) alternative energy sources; or (d)
combinations of these sources, as major sources of en-
ergy supply (see Issue XI).
C. Increasing Environmental Pressures Require New,
Integrated Land Use Practices Which Allow for the
Diversity of Needs and Interests - 3-12, 4-4, 5-5, 6-2,
6-13,7-1,7-2,7-3,7-7,7-8 plus elements of 6-3,9-5,9-
7; HI, XIII.
A new, integrated and holistic approach to land use will
become more urgent nationally and internationally as a part of
achieving sustainable development as population pressures
and related environmental stressors increase. Land use choices
made without appropriate environmental considerations can
cause irretrievable losses of biodiversity and habitat, and can
prevent the long term achievement of human welfare and
health goals and sustainabiliry. Some of the countervailing
needs involved in the issue of land use are
« The increasing need to prevent species and habitat loss.
« The need to prevent the loss of productive agricultural
land.
The need to protect pristine lands.
The need to prevent soil depletion and "dust bowl" cre-
ation (and, on a larger scale, desertification as in sub-
Saharan Africa).
The need to provide for expanding human populations,
their needs, and their resource-using activities (e.g., in-
creases in agricultural intensity in developing countries in
order to feed large and growing local populations as in
sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia).
» The need to consider the increased individual and total
population risks due to flooding as a result of increasing
total population and/or increased population density in
flood-prone areas, and related development activities.
Greater storm intensities, a possible consequence of glo-
bal warming, will exacerbate flooding problems.
The need to give full consideration to the rights of prop-
erty owners and their legal guarantees in future land use
planning in the United States and in other countries.
* The need to cope with the current complexity and diver-
sity of laws, regulations and ordinances within nations;
this complexity and diversity is very great and can raise
barriers to achieving improved, overall land use.
Providing for the reuse of already used, contaminated land
and structures offers a solution to one aspect of the overall
land use problem; however, failure to establish a stance that
can enable less costly and more timely redevelopment of
urban sites could force the development of more pristine land
resources. Remediation criteria are needed for sites of all
types prior to reuse; decontamination to levels approaching
pristine conditions may not be possible and may be too costly
compared to the benefits. Restricted use could restore some
previously used sites to new industrial or other economic use.
This issue is likely to become acute in the period. In addition
to its national and -international scope, in some regions of the
world it has national security implications.
D. The "Health" of the Oceans Deteriorates Further and
Leads to a Wide Range of Serious, Adverse Conse-
quences. - 3-3, 7-14 (in part), 10-2; V.
The oceans are a major part of the global environment,
covering over seventy percent of the surface of the Earth.
They are a major source of food for many species, including
the global human population; interacting with the atmosphere,
they are a major part of the mechanism which generates the
world's climatic conditions; they absorb and fix CO2 in vari-
ous organic and inorganic forms; they absorb atmospheric
contaminants (gases and partieulates), purifying the atmo-
sphere; and their worldwide blanket of chlorophyll-containing
plant species, in the upper, photic layer of the oceanic waters,
produces as much or more oxygen as terrestrial plants do.
There are early signs that the environmental health of the
. oceans is deteriorating. Most of these signs are seen in the
coastal and near-coastal waters of the oceans, but some are
showing up in the deep, open seas as well. Given the intercon-
nections of all the parts of the oceans, it is not surprising that
dlis should happen at some time.
66
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Damage to the condition of the oceans comes about in two
principal ways: (1) over-exploitation of their resources and (2)
the introduction of pollutants and wastes into their waters.
The harvesting of marine life for food is the primary, current
concern insofar as over-exploitation of resources is concerned.
Much of the overharvesting has occurred in the relatively
shallow (less than 1,000 feet deep) waters over the continental
shelves where national Exclusive Economic Zones have been
established and within which some nations, such as the U.'S.,
are taking measures to restore depleted stocks. Commercial
deep sea fishing and hunting is not so easily regulated, world-
wide, however. At the present time, fully 45% of the fish
stocks whose status is known are now overfished and popula-
tions of some species have decreased to 10% of the level that
yields the largest sustainable catch (see 1993 Vital Signs for
other relevant information).
Overharvesting is not solely a concern from the standpoint of
human food supplies. The reduction of food availability af-
fects other species and is not limited to coastal species since
the food chains of the oceans are highly interconnected (the
"food web"), longer, on average, than terrestrial food chains,
and include species living at all depths.
Insofar as pollutants and wastes are concerned, the oceans are
a major, frequently final, sink for pollutants and wastes of all
kinds: pollutants in runoff from the land masses and from
most rivers enter the oceans at every shoreline; airborne
gaseous and particulate pollutants enter the oceans across
their entire surfaces (see issue area A); liquid and solid
wastes, including untreated sewage and radioactive wastes,
from shore-based facilities and ships throughout the world are
deliberately dumped into the oceans despite local laws and
international conventions; accidental dumping from spills or
other accidents introduce many types of contaminants and
wastes into the oceans; and naval and military activities
provide further sources of contamination.
The greatest burdens and impacts of pollution are found in the
coastal regions and they have increased measurably in fre-
quency and extent over the last two decades; some examples
of impacts are: tumor-bearing fish, shell fish and marine
mammals; red algae blooms (which have increased in number
and in geographic distribution in the last decade) and which
are due, in part, to nutrient pollutants; and contaminated fish,
shell fish, and marine mammals. Red (and other) algal blooms
cut off sunlight and deplete dissolved oxygen, causing great
harm to other marine life; and their toxins, bioaccumulated in
fish and shell fish, have sickened people and killed both
whales and fish. Currents have transported such blooms hun-
dreds of miles.
Although most of the effects of pollution and its impacts are
seen in the coastal waters of the continental shelf around the
world, ocean currents and the food web have carried indi-
vidual contaminants to non-coastal waters. Many fish, includ-
ing those normally harvested in coastal waters, migrate across
great expanses of the oceans. Contaminants such as pesticides
and PCBs have been found, widespread, in the open seas not
only in the tissues of fish and marine mammals but in the
seawater, itself. And solid waste such as polystyrene foam
particles, bottles, and the like, have been found floating in the
Sargasso Sea far from the beaches of the world where they so
often appear. So far, in the open seas, the presence of contami-
nants and solid wastes is detectable, but their effects have not
been detectable in many planktonic or nektonic life forms.
Their presence stands as another, possible, early warning sign
of larger, future problems.
The oceans are a vast (but not endless) complex of ecosystems
that is as yet poorly understood compared to terrestrial sys-
tems and whose biodiversity may be greater than that of the
land. Marine scientists have recently, at a National Research
Council Conference, expressed concerns that oceanic
biodiversity is at risk and must be much better understood in
the near future. Because the oceans border on many countries
and are so broad, they are the responsibility of no one country
or organization. As a result, it is difficult to bring a single
focus to bear on environmental events and changes in the
oceans so that the integrated significance of such changes to
the environment of the Earth can be evaluated. Oceans are
huge reservoirs whose equilibrium takes a long time to change.
However, it also will take a long time to recover once the
causes of any adverse effects are identified. In the, meantime,
large parts of the ever-growing, global, human population
may be affected by these changes. Assuming that "dilution is
the solution to pollution" is no more valid for the oceans than
for other segments of the Earth's environment.
Bringing an integrated focus to monitoring and assessing the
important environmental consequences of the oceans, glo-
bally, will require firm, farseeing leadership.
E. Over-Exploitation of Natural Resources Leads to Eco-
system and Human Welfare Harm and Lack of
Sustainability - 6-5, 7-2, 7-3, 7-7, 7-13,7-14, 8-3, 9-8,
11-1 (relates to 3-3,10-2); IV, VI.
The problems connected with resource use and, in particular,
resource depletion, worldwide, can be exacerbated by the lack
of adequate alternatives for achieving short-term economic
growth in many areas where the resource depletion is viewed
as necessary for economic survival. Adverse impacts on eco-
logical and other natural systems can be significant from the
over exploitation of natural resources, however, and can
threaten the long-term well- being of the ecologies of the
planet as a whole, including human populations.
Some of the particular concerns are: over drafting of ground-
water and surface water for irrigation, industrial use and
drinking water supply are contributing to ground-level subsid-
ence and concerns about our ability to supply ourselves with
adequate quantities of drinking water of good quality. Poor
agricultural practices contribute to erosion and subsequent
loss of soils and reliance on monoculture crops poses risks to
the food supply. Over exploitation of near coastal and marine
] fisheries has decimated many stocks offish (see issue area D).
Non-sustainable harvesting of timber and other causes of
deforestation, not only in the tropical rainforests but else-
where as well, cause unprecedented losses of biodiversity.
Surface mining of minerals destroys terrestrial habitats and
contaminates aquatic ecosystems. And poorly thought through
land use practices in all areas contribute to many types of
resource depletion (see issue area C).
67
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Waste management, national and worldwide, goes hand-in-
hand with resource use. The ultimate resting grounds of
wastes are, in themselves, natural resources. Even with the
maximum utilization of less polluting technologies, pollution
prevention in general, waste utilization, and recycling, there
will be waste to be disposed of, and increases in population
and in energy use and material consumption per capita will
exacerbate this issue. Increasing amounts of radioactive wastes
will continue to pose their own particular problems. Efforts to
prevent pollution and promote utilization and recycling will
not proceed or succeed at the same rate in all regions of the
world: they will take time to take hold. Thus the period of
concern is one of many years' duration. The urgent need for
economic improvement in some regions of the world will
delay.the full implementation of these more sophisticated
approaches to pollution prevention and abatement.
Novel approaches to all of these problems will be needed.
Economic offsets will not solve the underlying physical prob-
lems but they can make some of the interim adjustments more
feasible and acceptable.
F, Introduction of Exotic Species and the Favoring of
Specific Species Leads to Significant Threats to En-
demic Species and to Overall Biodiversity 3-5,7-1-1,
7-16, 9-6; VII.
The intentional introduction of exotic species (plant or ani-
mal, terrestrial or aquatic, microscopic or macroscopic, and
natural or bioengineered), is usually done to obtain specific,
clear benefits, as is the deliberate favoring of one species over
another. Accidental introductions occur as well.
Practices that favor one species over another (as in fish
hatcheries and silviculture) can change the ecological balance
by helping the favored species to become dominant Introduc-
tions can pose significant threats to endemic species and to
overall biodiversity. Introduced species often out-compete
native species, due to lack of predators, and disrupt the
structure and functioning of ecosystems. Examples of natural
species' introduction include: the zebra mussel in the Great
Lakes, the Asiatic clam, kudzu, chestnut blight, Dutch elm
disease, water milfoil, hydrilla, mesquite, the Japanese beetle
and the sea lamprey.
The introduction of bioengineered species raises human health
risk fears, too, not only from direct impact of the species in
question but from unforeseen variations which may occur in
nature to such species or the changes that unpredicted ex-
changes of genetic material may give rise to. The develop-
ment of bioengineered species needs to be carefully evaluated
and managed. Research is needed on both direct and indirect
risks from bioengineered species, and on methods and proto-
cols for hazard identification and risk analysis. As more
bioengineered species are produced and used, public interest
may become a salient factor in shaping the issue.
With the internationalization of the economy and the rapid
development of bioengineering, a. significant likelihood
exists for an increase in the introduction of exotic species
of all types; how to cope with these introductions will
become an increasingly more severe problem.
G. Failure to Maintain a Healthy Biosphere Leads to
Environmental Degradation to the Point of Prevent-
ing the Achievement of Sustainability an of Seriously
Threatening Human Weil-Being - 2-1, 3-1, 5-6, 6-13,
7-8, 9-5,9-10, 9-11,9-12; VIII.
Achieving and supporting sustainable development in the face
of mounting population and the pressures related to it (for
example: increasing use of resources, including land; and
increasing pollution, including that of light and noise) require-
holistic ecosystem risk assessment and management capable
of maintaining ahealthy, viable biosphere. Failure to maintain
such a viable biosphere will result in ecological damage such
as loss of habitat and of biodiversity and, ultimately, risks to
human well being.
To maintain a healthy biosphere and achieve sustainable
development, operational definitions of ecosystems which
facilitate risk assessment and management will be needed, as
well as research to define ecosystems, including their interre-
lationships to each other, to the whole, and to human health,
well being and welfare; to define their role in maintaining
sufficient biodiversity (and define such concepts as "sufficient
biodiversity" and "sufficient habitat"); to define their rel-
evance for achieving sustainable development; to define when
ecological change is or is not inimical to the ecologies and to
human health, well being and welfare; and to define when
remedial action is required and what it is. This issue is likely
to become prominent early in the period and to have major
effect on land use policies (see Issue C).
H. The Advent And Application Of New Scientific Dis-
coveries About the Causes of Adverse Human Health
Effects, and of Extensive Data Banks, Leads to Radi-
cally New Methods of Human Health Risk Assessment
and Management and to New Opportunities for, and
Controversies in, Risk Management 1-4,1-5, 3-7,3-
8, 3-9, 4-1, 4-2, 5-10, 6-10, 6-11, 7-10, 7-18, 8-1, 11-2;
X.
The challenges to human health risk assessment and manage-
ment will remain high throughout the future period considered
whether the agents in question are specific chemicals, mix-
tures of substances in solution or as suspended particulate or
other finely divided matter, biological organisms, or any of
many types of radiation. The questions of how to define and
use, in risk assessments: (1) information as it is obtained in
areas such as individual susceptibility to agents (especially for
susceptible subpopulations); (2) the accounting for multiple
or cumulative exposures including synergism between agents
of all types; (3) biomarkers of exposure and/or of effect: and
(4) information on mechanisms of action will continue to be
of prime importance.
The increasing use, as knowledge is obtained from risk assess-
ment-oriented studies or from other studies such as those
involved in the Human Genome Project, of new information
will lead to new methods of risk assessment, including devel-
oping techniques for the prediction of predisposition to dis-
ease. These,- in turn, will have major effects on traditional
methods of risk management and regulation and may require
totally new strategies.
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Risk assessment is further complicated by the diversity of
backgrounds and ages in susceptible groups and the differ-
ences in population responses to risk due to economic, cul-
tural or educational differences. With sufficient impetus, the
harmonization of the assessment of risks of cancer and non-
cancer endpoints is likely to come about, and the development
of extensive and proven managed databases of exposures will
become available.
As methods for accounting for multiple exposures and end-
points are developed (for cancer and non-cancer endpoints,
together) and as previously unevaluated agents and effects are
monitored and exposure data banks become more and' more
encompassing (see issue area J) there will be a tendency for
regulations to become more stringent. Consequently, there
will need to be better, more accepted methods for taking
account of the benefits of risk reduction and for assessing risk
versus risk. These developments, as they occur, will make the
development of harmonized criteria'of the "acceptabilities" of
risks a more urgent problem.
I. Increased Energy Production and Use Coupled With
Inefficiencies in Its Production and Use and With
Inadequately Considered Energy Production Alterna-
tives Lead to a Wide Range of Adverse Environmen-
tal Impacts - 3-13, 6-8, 7-12, 7-15,11-1; XL
The production and use of energy in all its forms is among the
greatest technological benefits enjoyed in the world today.
The availability of just one form of energy, alone, electrical
energy, for lighting, refrigeration of foods and medicines,
communications, and education is a great and powerful posi-
tive force for human health and welfare. Thus, increased use
of electrical energy from clean and efficient sources in devel-
oping societies has been viewed as a major step toward
sustainable societies.
The environmental impacts of energy production and use will
remain a major United States and worldwide issue throughout
the period considered. As an overall issue it is not novel. For
the United States, as the largest producer and user of energy in
the world, the issue has a special criticality.
Some examples of areas requiring focused and integrated
attention, in the U.S. and worldwide, are
The recognition of the broad ranges of adverse environ-
mental effects resulting from inefficient use of energy for
transportation, industrial purposes, and residential use
will lead to requirements for improved conservation and
efficiency, and development of economic energy sources
with lower environmental impacts.
« Transportation, in all its forms, is a major energy user and
has major environmental impacts. In the light of the
growing need for energy efficiency and environmental
protection, a comprehensive review of our national trans-
portation systems (ground, water and air) is needed to
determine what developments are desirable (what combi-
nations of types of transportation best fit differing needs
and distances covered) and what means and incentives
are needed to bring them about in a free society.
The anticipation of an accelerated use of highly-polluting
coal, with its release of particulates and hazardous sub-
stances (including radionuclides) and its potential impact
on the global climate, in developing countries poses a
worldwide issue. The United States' position as the larg-
est user of energy makes this a particularly difficult issue
to deal with from this country's standpoint.
The need to avoid the possibility that fossil fuel depletion
will lead to the use of resources having a greater potential
for environmental contamination and habitat loss.
The possibility that environmental costs (localized cli-
mate change, decreased raptor populations) resulting from
increased use of alternative (e.g., solar, wind) power
sources require more comprehensive planning prior to
widespread use of these technologies.
The particular issue of energy policy choices between the
utilization of (a) nuclear fission (or possibly, in the future,
fusion); (b) fossil fuels; (c) alternative energy sources; or
(d) combinations of these sources, as major sources of
energy supply need to be considered in the light of factors
such as greenhouse emissions and nuclear waste disposal
(see Issue B).
J. Failure to Monitor, Assess and Catalog Previously
Unaccounted for Sources of Stressors Leads to Unex-
pected Adverse Impacts on Human Health and Eco-
systems - 1-6, 1-7, 1-9, 3-2, 4-1, 5-1, 7-4, 9-7, 9-13,
10-1; LX, XIV, XV.
The production and use of energy in all its forms is among the
greatest technological benefits enjoyed in the world today.
The availability of just one form of energy, alone, electrical
energy, for lighting, refrigeration of foods and medicines,
communications, and education is a great and powerful posi-
tive force for human health and welfare. Thus, increased use
of electrical energy from clean and efficient sources in devel-
oping societies has been viewed as a major step toward
sustainable societies.
The environmental impacts of energy production and use will
remain a major United States and worldwide issue throughout
the period considered. As an overall issue it is not novel. For
the United States, as the largest producer and user of energy in
the world, the issue has a special criticality.
Some examples of areas requiring focused and integrated
attention, in the U.S. and worldwide, are:
The recognition of the broad ranges of adverse environ-
mental effects resulting from inefficient use of energy for
transportation, industrial purposes, and residential use
will lead to requirements for improved conservation and
efficiency, and development of economic energy sources
with lower environmental impacts.
Transportation, in all its forms, is a major energy user and
has major environmental impacts. In the light of the
growing need for energy efficiency and environmental
protection, a comprehensive review of our national trans-
portation systems (ground, water and air) is needed to
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determine what developments are desirable (what combi-
nations of types of transportation best fit differing needs
and distances covered) and what means and incentives
are needed to bring them about in a free society.
The anticipation of an accelerated use of highly polluting
coal, with its release of particulates and hazardous sub-
stances (including radionuclides) and its potential impact
on the global climate, in developing countries poses a
worldwide issue. The United States' position as the larg-
est user of energy makes this a particularly difficult issue
to deal with from this country's standpoint.
The need to avoid the possibility that fossil fuel depletion
will lead to the use of resources having a greater potential
for environmental contamination and habitat loss.
« The possibility that environmental costs (localized cli-
mate change, decreased raptor populations) resulting from
increased use of alternative (e.g., solar, wind) power
sources require more comprehensive planning prior to
widespread use of these technologies.
The particular issue of energy policy choices between the
utilization of (a) nuclear fission (or possibly, in the future,
fusion); (b) fossil fuels; (c) alternative energy sources; or
(d) combinations of these sources, as major sources of
energy supply need to be considered in the light of factors
. such as greenhouse emissions and nuclear waste disposal
(see Issue B).
J. Failure to Monitor, Assess and Catalog Previously
Unaccounted for Sources of Stressors Leads to Unex-
pected Adverse Impacts on Human Health and Eco-
systems - 1-6, 1-7, 1-9, 3-2, 4-1, 5-1, 7-4, 9-7, 9-13,
10-1; IX, XIV, XV.
Current requirements to report, monitor or measure contami-
nants (including biological contaminants) in, or released to,
the environment may appear to be highly inclusive. However,
such is not the case because contaminants can enter into,
migrate and disperse in, change in, interact within, and accu-
mulate in the environment, including the biosphere, in many
now unaccounted ways both within and across media. Trans-
port, dispersion, migration and dissemination can include not
only the above means but also the transport of contaminants in
goods from developed to developing countries and vice versa.
The issue is of interregional arid' international scope, involv-
ing both developed and third world countries and their diverse
practices. The effects of such contaminants on human health
and ecosystems is not now sufficiently known, but as time
goes on and accumulation continues, previously impercep-
tible risks may be perceived.
Currently, in the United States, only chemicals cited in per-
mits and regulations are regularly monitored and measured.
Historically, generic conventional parameters such as BOD,
COD, TPH, or suspended solids, were monitored. Now it is
likely as well to be some set of specific chemicals, such as
benzene, naphthalene, chlorinated solvents, and the like. And
while the Toxic Substances Control Act, along with other acts,
causes the reporting of many new substances not otherwise
reported to the EPA prior to their introduction as commercial
products so that these substances are known to the EPA --
many other chemicals exist and migrate in the environment
from a variety of direct and indirect sources that either in
combination or alone can have long-term, slow but important
health or ecological effects not now appreciated. Examples of
bioaccumulative chemicals are:
(1) dioxin and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) which
concentrate in top predators and can adversely affect
growth, development and reproduction of both terres-
trial and aquatic consumers; while
(2) metals in soil, sediments and water can exert acute and
chronic toxic effects on plants and animals, including
humans.
It is not prudent to attempt to measure the concentrations or
amounts of all contaminants that are released from various
sources. However, there should be attempts to identify, record,
monitor and analyze effects that may be caused by contami-
nants, both currently monitored or regulated contaminants and
others, as a means of initiating studies aimed at identifying the
actual stressors causing observed effects. One approach is the
monitoring of early warning signs that adverse effects may
exist. A comprehensive set of early warning signs has yet to
be identified. Indicators of environmental harm, and therefore
of underlying stressors, often are difficult to understand ex-
cept in the case of visual air quality. Use of haze as an early
warning signal has immediate and long term value, for ex-
ample, and the monitoring of wildlife health for effects such
as me current ones of environmental estrogens or the sudden
reductions in populations, (e.g., the current collapse of frog
populations) are examples of possible early warning signs.
But more such signs need to be identified, catalogued, and
entered into a readily accessible information system for use in
identifying previously undetected exposures with effects. Public
judgement that there is an environmental health problem
based on perceptions of visual air quality and odor and human
perceptions of environmental quality are indicators that should
be followed up.
A second, companion approach is to develop an environmen-
tal data resource of high quality and reliability. With appropri-
ate specification of the kinds, nature and amounts of data
needed for some of EPA's most common data needs for risk
assessment and risk management, much of the potentially
useful data being collected by EPA, states, industry, and
others could be made much more useful at marginal increases
in cost of acquisition. The existence of a rational and poten-
tially accessible repository of quality-assured data would it-
self stimulate the acquisition and sharing of additional data
suitable for the needs of the various stakeholders. The mature
system would provide for uniform criteria for (a) data collec-
tion and entry into tJie universal data resource, (b) reasonable
and open access to the universal data resource, (c) inventory-
ing of data and periodic trends analysis, (d) ongoing system of
oversight and (e) periodic review of analyses based on usage
of the data resource.
K. Failure to Respond to the National and International
Expansion and Growth of the Concept of Environ-
mental Equity Leads to Disproportionate Adverse
Impacts on Significant Segments of the World's Popu-
lation. - 1-10,1-12,3-11; XVI.
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Environmental justice or equity is an evolving issue in the
United States which can expand well beyond its present scdpe
and move in significant, additional directions. It is also an
emerging international issue, particularly evident when devel-
oped nations ignore or are insensitive to environmental prob-
lems and environmental health in less developed nations. The
problems of economic survival and improvement in those
nations are too seldom recognized, and differences in living
habits, nutritional levels, cultural practices and susceptibilities
to diseases must.be borne in mind; and it must be remembered
that environmental "solutions" satisfactory for more devel-
oped nations may be infeasible or unacceptable in less devel-
oped nations. Assistance in forms that less developed nations
can use and accept is needed. This issue may become one of
the most important ones in the coming period with major
international aspects and consequences and possibly national
security aspects.
In the United States the issue is based on the fact that people
of lower economic means, among whom the proportion of
minorities is often higher than in the general population, are
generally more highly exposed to environmental contami-
nants, either through living in proximity to manufacturing
areas, waste disposal sites or other facilities or in higher
contaminated areas, or because of the nature and basis of
regulations written for "average" individuals, or otherwise.
This segment of the population may have different food intake
patterns and habits of living because of differences in eco-
nomic conditions and cultural backgrounds from the "aver-
age" member of the population and may have consequent
different overall levels of health and individual susceptibili-
ties to diseases. In addition to the possibility that such portions
of the population might experience an excess of adverse
health effects, compared with the rest of the. population, from
such exposures, stress induced by factors related to or en-
hanced by environmental degradation might result in in-
creased physical health problems or, even, increased violence.
In the United States the issue has a growing following, and
environmental programs must be sensitive to equity and ad-
dress the need for bringing diverse, even angry voices into the
decision process. Research is needed to provide the statistical
and other evidence to ensure that policy decisions (and any
concomitant legislative and/or regulatory decisions) are the best
that can be made; but it must be remembered that equity is a
matter of human values and is not an issue to be resolved by
science but, at most, illuminated by it. Examination of current
regulatory structures to determine which may be affected by the
environmental equity issue (not only those regulatory structures
relating to site-related issues but all types of regulations) is
needed to determine the true scope of the issue and to set goals.
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' Appendix G
Overarching Issue Areas Prepared for Discussion With the EFC
(Not listed in any order of preference)
NOTE: With the title of each overarching issue area the
numbers of the relevant issues in Appendix A are given. Not
all of the underlying issues were used explicitly in formulat-
ing the descriptions of the overarching issues although all
were considered. The wording of the issues in Appendix A
was used to the extent possible to preserve original meaning.
Titles were added to indicate the general subjects of the issues
areas, not to summarize the issues. . .
No inference should be made that these are possible actual
predictions, or that this is a comprehensive list of all possible
future issues. Rather, these issues are simply one set of
possible issues requiring further investigation, analysis and
possible aggregation. These possible future issues are listed in
no order of priority or importance.
I. Integrated Atmospheric Contaminant Management
- 1-3,1-4,1-5,1-6,1-8,4-3.
Current approaches to air quality management which focus on
one issue at a time do not effectively deal with complex
connections among atmospheric processes, synergism be-
tween pollutants (including trace contaminants and particu-
lates), emissions of persistent, or long-lived, toxics as well as
other air pollutants, the accumulation of contaminants over
time, and their dispersion and transport, inter-regionally and
internationally. Developing countries in particular pose prob-
lems as do local areas where.air contaminants are prevalent in
high concentrations.
Recognition of this situation is leading to risk-based manage-
ment of air quality as a total system intimately linked to other
factors and to programs encouraging individual participation
and commitment to pollution prevention. Trends analysis of
rising background pollutant levels may provide early warn-
ings about rising exposures of humans and ecosystems that,
with improving exposure-response knowledge, could justify
risk management actions before waiting for more severe
effects to be established. As we learn more about persistent
pollutants, their interactions and transport, we will have to
rethink, our present control strategy paradigm. Simultaneous
risk-management of the total air burden may be needed.
II. Climate Change: Global Warming - 1-1,1-2,1-3,
3-4, 5-3,5-4, 7-5,7-6,11-1.
Global wanning is a well recognized issue, the subject, today,
of much research, speculation and uncertainty. Major uncer-
tainties exist as to if, when, and to what degree global warm-
ing will occur, considering possible mitigating mechanisms,
and whether or not its effects will be more adverse than
beneficial, overall. In the meantime numerous specific ques-
tions surrounding the interrelated issues need attention and a
concerted effort to seek out and investigate such questions is
needed. Some examples are
« Formation mechanisms for secondary pollutants such as
ozone and fine particles (and visibility-reducing regional
haze) in the atmosphere through complex, nonlinear pro-
cesses are not fully understood. It is further complicated
hy "uncontrollable factors" such as natural emissions and
meteorological influences,
« Primary particles along with those formed from chemical
reactions involving sulfur, nitrogen and carbon may be
reflecting solar radiation back into space, thereby mask-
ing the greenhouse effect over some parts of the earth.
Better understanding of the simultaneous effects of par-
ticles, particle processors and greenhouse gases is needed
to devise appropriate risk management plans.
Increased nitrogen-containing emissions (urban nitrogen
oxide and agricultural ammonia emissions) may stimu-
late carbon uptake in plant tissues and thus may tend to
balance global carbon losses to the atmosphere from
agriculture and deforestation. Nitrogen fertilization may
therefore serve to postpone the rate of CO2 accumulation
in the atmosphere^
« Future, more complete definition of the mechanisms of
global climate change raises the possibility of identifying
factors leading to adverse, local climate changes and the
need for methods for their risk assessment and manage-
ment.
If the belief prevails that global warming will occur and
that its effects are, overall, adverse, the selection and
implementation of energy policies will be affected by
factors such as whether concerns over greenhouse gas
emissions or nuclear waste disposal or a combination
of the two concerns ~ dominate. Several scenarios based
on these concerns could affect energy policy choices
between the utilization of (a) nuclear fission (or possibly,
in the future, fusion), (b) fossil fuels, (c) alternative
energy sources, or (d) combinations of these sources, as
major sources of energy supply (see Issue XI).
ID. Land Use and Management - 3-12,4-4, 5-5, 6-13,
7-1,7-7.
As both direct and indirect land use restrictions grow in
number, coverage and complexity, a holistic review of land
use-related laws, regulations and policies will become more
urgent as a part of achieving sustainable development. Poli-
cies dealing with land use choices will have to include health
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considerations as well as ecological considerations such as
loss of biodiversity, habitat destruction, soil depletion, "dust
bowl" creation (and, on a larger scale, desertification). The
reuse of land must be considered: remediation criteria for the
decontamination of land previously subjected to many types
of uses to make it suitable for reuse will be needed, including
consideration of health, ecological and cost and benefit fac^
tors. This issue is likely to become acute in the period. It has
national and international implications; in some regions of the
world it has national security implications.
IV. Global Waste Management Issues ~ 6-5, 7-2, 7-3,
11-2.
Only a few of the issues collected address waste, per se, and it
is not the main topic of any of the issues. However the
interregional, international and global implications of this
issue are likely to become large within the period despite
efforts to prevent pollution and promote recycling and novel
approaches will be needed. Increases in population, in energy
use per capita, in consumption per capita, and in the sophisti-
cation of the very methods for dealing with wastes, will
exacerbate this issue.
V. The Health of the Oceans ~ 3-3, 7-14 (in part),
10-2
There are signs, today, that the overall health of the oceans,
and of the enormously complex ecologies therein, is deterio-
rating. The maintenance of the health of the oceans needs to
be addressed holistically 'and internationally as population
pressures and related drivers bring ever greater stress on the
total set of the oceans' slow regenerative capacities. Causes
include overuse (such as overfishing), the impacts of pollutant
and solid waste discharges and dumping by nations around the
world, dumping and spills at sea, and the absorption of
airborne contaminants of all types. There is no one authority
responsible for the health of the oceans. At risk is a major
source of the world's food supply, a major sink and transporter
of CO2, a major producer of oxygen, and a highly important
climatological engine. The issue is likely to become acute
within the period if present trends continue. The issue is of
global and critical importance.
VI. Over Exploitation of Natural Resources - 7-7, 7-
13, 7-14, 8-3, 9-8, (relates to 3-3,10-2).
Adverse impacts on ecological and other natural systems are
significant from over exploitation of natural resources. Over
drafting of groundwater and surface water for irrigation, in-
dustrial use and drinking water supply are contributing to in
increase in deserts in many parts of the world as well as to
concerns about our ability to supply ourselves with adequate
quantities of drinking water of good quality. Poor agricultural
practices contribute to erosion and subsequent loss of soils.
Over exploitation of near coastal and marine fisheries have
decimated many stocks of fish (see Issue V). Non-sustainable
harvesting of timber particularly in the tropics cause unprec-
edented losses of biodiversity. Surface mining of minerals
destroys terrestrial habitats arid contaminates aquatic ecosys-
tems. And poorly thought through land use practices in all
areas, contribute to many types of resource depletion (see
Issue IH).
VII. Accidental or Misguided Introduction of Exotic
Species - 3-5, 7-11, 7-16, 9-6.
Accidental or misguided introduction of exotic species (both
plant and animal, terrestrial and aquatic species, and both and
natural and bioengineered species) pose a significant threat to
endemic species and overall biodiversity. Introduced species
often out-compete native species, due to lack of predators, and
disrupt the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Examples
of natural species introduction include: zebra mussel in the
Great Lakes, Asiatic clam, kudzu, chestnut blight, Dutch elm .
disease, water milfoil, hydrilla, mesquite, Japanese beetle, sea
lamprey. The introduction of bioengineered species raises
human health risk questions, too, not only from direct impact
of the species in question but from variations which may
occur in nature to such species or the changes that exchanges
of genetic material may give rise to. With the internationaliza-
tion of the economy and the rapid development of bioengi-
neering, a significant risk exists for an increase in the
introduction of exotic species. Development of bioengineered
species needs to be carefully evaluated and managed. Re-
search is needed on the existence (or nonexistence) of both
direct and indirect risks from bioengineered species, and on
methods and protocols for hazard identification and risk analy-
sis. As more bioengineered species are produced and used,
public interest is likely to be a salient factor in shaping the
issue.
VIK. Sustainable Development and the Maintenance of
a Healthy Biosphere ~ 2-1, 3-1, 5-6, 6-13,
7-8,9-5,9-10,9-11,9-12.
While human health and welfare considerations are the gov-
erning reasons for seeking to achieve sustainable develop-
ment, and are, therefore, important in defining and achieving
it, ecological factors, especially loss of habitat and of
biodiversity, represent great threats to our ability to achieve
sustainable development. Mounting population and the pres-
sures related to it (land use, pollution including that of light
and noise, for example) will require holistic ecosystem risk
assessment and management capable of supporting sustain-
able development; operational definitions of ecosystems which
permit this to be done are not now available and research is
needed to define ecosystems so as to take account of their
interrelationships: to each other, and to the whole; their role in
maintaining sufficient biodiversity; their relationships to hu-
man health, well being and welfare; their relevance for achiev-
ing sustainable development; when ecological change is or is
not inimical to human health, well being and welfare; and
when. remedial action is required. This issue is likely to
become prominent early in the period and to have major effect
on land use policies (see Issue III).
IX. Migration and Accumulation of Pollutants ~ 1-6,
1-7, 9-7,9-13.
The dissemination, dispersion, migration and long-range trans-
port of contaminants (including biological contaminants), es-
pecially persistent ones, by many pathways, and their
accumulation in the environment, including the biosphere,
over time, poses a large and difficult issue in risk assessment
and management. Major risks can arise if this issue is not
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addressed and the phenomena not monitored in a concerted
way. For example, bioaccumulative chemicals such as dioxin
and poly chlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) concentrate in top
predators and can adversely affect growth, development and
reproduction of both terrestrial and aquatic consumers while
metals in soil, sediments and water can exert acute and
chronic toxic effects on plants and animals, including humans.
Transport, dispersion, migration and dissemination can in-
clude not only traditional means but the transport of contami-
nants in goods from developed to developing countries (which
does not always follow good environmental practices) - and
vice versa. The issue is of inter-regional and international
scope, involving both developed and third world countries
and their diverse practices.
X. Human Health Risk Assessment and Management
- 1-4,1-5,3-7,3-8,3-9,4-1,4-2,5-10,6-10,6-11,7-
10, 7-18, 8-1,11-2.
The challenges to human health risk assessment and manage-
ment will remain high throughout the future period considered
whether the agents in question are chemical substances, par-
ticulate matter, biological organisms, or any of many types of
radiation. The questions of how to define and use, in risk
assessments, such information as it is obtained in areas such
as individual susceptibility to agents (and especially suscep-
tible subpopulations), the accounting for multiple or cumula-
tive exposures including synergism between agents of all
types, biomarkers of exposure and/or of effect, and ancillary
information on mechanisms of action will continue to be of
prime importance; the increasing use, as knowledge is ob-
tained, of information in these areas will lead to new methods
of risk assessment which, in turn, will have major effects on
risk management and regulation. With sufficient impetus, the
harmonization of the assessment of risks of cancer and non-
cancer endpoints is likely to come about, and the development
of extensive and proven managed databases of exposures will
become available. In all likelihood, regulations in many cases
will become more stringent, especially as methods for ac-
counting for multiple exposures are developed, including
multiple effects: cancer and non-cancer endpoints, together.
These developments, as they occur, will make the develop-
ment of harmonized criteria of the acceptabilities of risks a
more urgent problem; whether it will or can be resolved
explicitly is not clear.
XI. Energy Production and Use ~ 3-13,6-8,7-12,7-15,
11-1.
Energy production and use, and its environmental impacts, is
and will remain a major issue throughout the period consid-
ered. As an overall issue it is not novel.
As the largest producer and user of energy in the world, the
issue is especially critical in the United States. Some ex-
amples of areas requiring focused and integrated attention are:
The fact that the broad ranges of environmental effects
resulting from inefficient use of energy for transporta-
tion, industrial purposes, and residential use require im-
proved conservation and efficiency, and development of
economic energy sources with lower environmental im-
pacts;
« The need to avoid the possibility that fossil fuel depletion
will lead to use of resources having a greater potential for
environmental contamination and habitat loss; and
The possibility that environmental costs (localized cli-
mate change, decreased raptor populations) resulting from
increased use of alternative (e.g., solar, wind) power
sources require more comprehensive planning for use of
these technologies.
» The particular issue of transportation. Transportation in
air its forms is a major energy user and has major envi-
ronmental impacts. In the light of the growing need for
energy efficiency and environmental protection, review
of our national transportation systems (ground, water and
air) is needed to determine what developments are desir-
able (what combinations of types of transportation best fit
differing needs and distances covered) and what means
and incentives are needed to bring them about in a free
society.
° The particular issue of energy policy choices between the
utilization of (a) nuclear fission (or possibly, in the future,
fusion), (b) fossil fuels, (c) alternative energy sources, or
(d) combinations of these sources, as major sources of
energy supply need to be considered in the light of factors
such as greenhouse emissions and nuclear waste disposal
(see Issue II).
XH. Technological Innovation, Development or
Decay -- 3-6, 5-7, 5-8, 6-1, 6-7, 6-11,7-9.
It will be important to look for and monitor risks related to
technological causes new, developing or in a state of decay
on a continuing basis as time goes on. This should be an
ongoing task of an established "lookout" panel. Some ex-
amples of these types of risks are:
Environmental and other benefits of the spread of the
information highway throughout society may bring with
them significant personal (mental) health and societal
risks.
increased presence of lead and more exotic metals in the
environment as a result of widespread acceptance of
electric or high efficiency automobiles.
Proliferation of new technologies will increase sources of
non-ionizing radiation, a possible important health threat.
' Broad ranges of environmental problems result from
rapid economic growth in the developing world, require
strategic technology planning, technology transfer, and
negotiations to reduce or slow these impacts.
Accelerating deterioration of urban infrastructure (e.g.,
water, sewerage, fuels) will cause many serious environ-
mental incidents and the introduction of unexpected pol-
lutants into the environment.
XHI. Management of Natural Environmental .-.
Disasters ~ 6-3.
Continued growth of the U.S. population, especially since it
tends to result in larger, densely populated city-plexes, and the
increasing utilization of land for agricultural and other pur-
74
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poses (including widely separated residences and other inhab-
ited facilities) as population grows, make the occurrence of
any natural disaster, whether the disaster be caused by floods,
storms, earthquakes, or fires, more severe and extensive in its
impact oil human life, safety, and welfare and on regional and
national economics. The same can be said internationally. In
the case of floods and storms, phenomena associated with
atmospheric action, the onset of global warming, if it should
occur without significant mitigation, will increase the danger
still further because of the partitioning of energy in the
atmosphere between thermal and mechanical modes, coupled
with the inherently chaotic nature of atmospheric phenomena.
Recent experience, alone, demonstrates the seriousness of
these types of environmental hazards and after-the-fact rescue
plans alone (Federal Emergency Management Agency), how-
ever well conceived and carried out, will not suffice as we
enter and move through the time period under consideration.
An effort is needed, starting now, to lay plans for preventative
measures as well as rescue and repair measures. This issue
will have important impact on such other issues as Issue III.
XIV. Information on Measures and Indicators of Hu-
man Health and Ecological Risks -- 1-9,3-2,4-1,
5-1,7-4,10-1.
Two factors are critical to the identification, assessment and
ultimately, risk management of hitherto undetected adverse
effects on human health and ecosystems: (1) the monitoring of
early warning signs that such effects may exist and (2) an
environmental data resource of high quality and reliability.
Needed now, the need for these two items will only grow in
the'future.
With regard to the first item, a comprehensive set of early
warning signs has yet to be identified. Indicators of environ-
mental harm often are difficult to understand except in the
case of visual air quality. Use of haze as an early warning
signal has immediate and long term value, for example, and
the monitoring of wildlife health, with its possible meaning
for human health, is another, but more such signs need to be
identified, catalogued, and entered into a readily accessible
information system for use in identifying previously undetec-
ted effects.
With regard to the second item, with appropriate specification
of the kinds, nature, specified and amounts of data needed for
some of EPA's most common data needs for risk assessment
and risk management, much of the potentially useful data
being collected by EPA, states, industry, and others could be
made much more useful at marginal increases in cost of
acquisition. The existence of a rational and potentially acces-
sible repository of quality assured data would itself stimulate
the acquisition and sharing of additional data that filled im-
portant information needs of the various stakeholders. The
mature system would provide for uniform criteria for: a) data
collection and entry into the universal data resource, ^rea-
sonable and open access to the universal data resource c)
inventorying of data and periodic trends analysis d) ongoing
system of oversight and e) periodic review of analyses based
on usage of the data resource.
XV. Novel and Unaccounted Sources of Stressors
10-1.
Only chemicals cited in permits and regulations are now
regularly monitored and measured. Previously, generic con-
ventional parameters such as BOD, COD, TPH, suspended
solids, were monitored. Now it is likely as well to be some set
of specific chemicals, such as benzene, naphthalene, chlori-
nated solvents, and the like. There are, however, many other
chemicals released to the environment that either in combina-
tion or alone can have a long term, slow but important health
or ecological effects not now1 appreciated. It is not prudent to
attempt to measure the concentrations of all chemicals that are
released. However, there should be attempts to identify, record,
monitor and analyze effects that may be caused by chemicals,
both currently monitored or regulated chemicals and others,
as a means of initiating studies aimed at identifying the actual
causes of observed effects. Current examples of the kinds of
effects that might be picked up are release of bioengineered
species, the effects of environmental estrogens or other spe-
cific disease endpoints, or the disappearances of specific
species (e.g., the current losses of frogs). (See, too, Issues VII,
DC, X and XTV).
XVI. Environmental Equity - 1-10,1-12, 3-11.
Environmental justice or equity is an existing issue which can
expand well beyond its present scope and move in significant.
additional directions. It is an issue affecting mainly the lower
economic strata of society among which, in the United States,
there is a disproportionately large number of minorities. It'is
based on the fact that people in this stratum of society are
generally more greatly exposed to environmental pollutants
and wastes, either through proximity to living areas, the work
place, the nature and basis of regulations written for "average"
individuals, or otherwise. In addition to the possibility that
such portions of'the population might experience an excess of
adverse health effects, compared with the rest of the popula-
tion, from such exposures, stress induced by factors related to
or enhanced by environmental degradation, may be growing
and might result in increased physical health problems or,
even, increased violence.
The issue is politically attractive, it has a growing following,
and environmental programs must be sensitive to equity and
address the need for bringing angry voices into the decision
process. Research is needed to provide the statistical and other
evidence to ensure that policy decisions (and any concomitant
legislative and/or regulatory decisions) are the best that can be
made. Examination of current regulatory structures to deter-
mine which may be affected by the Environmental Justice
issue (not only those regulatory structures relating to site-
related issues but all types of regulations) is needed to deter-
mine the true scope of the issue and to set goals.
75
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XVII. Education, Culture and Environmental Awareness Cultural characteristics which determine individual habits can
~ 1-11, 6-4. be major factors in determining pollution levels and the
degree to which wastes of many types are properly handled
The costs of environmental management strategies are grow- and disposed of. impr0ved, more widespread, environmental
ing and are increasingly of concern to various sectors of the education and dialogue among individuais and institutions is
population, including the public at large. In many areas, needed to ote an awareness of comm0n environmental
already, the traditional "command and control" environmental problemS) a common commitment to solutions developed by
strategies are being challenged and these challenges are likely ^ for ^ bljc in era]> and> ultimate]y> to bri about
to grow. Also, voluntary "mandates for personal change do environmentally favorable cultural changes. The processes
not seem to be effective. Effective alternatives to traditional for bri j about cu]tura] ch ^ slow.acting ones at
approaches are needed now and will be increasingly needed in best ^ require me dedication of large resoUrces, skillfully,
the future, creatively, consistently and persistently over time.
76
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Appendix H
Selected Published Information on Foresight and Driving Factors
A. Foresight Techniques and Forecasts
Brown, L.R., H. Kane, and E. Ayres. 1993. Vital Signs: The
Trends That are Shaping our Future. W.W. Norton and
Company, New York, 150 pp.
ICF. 1990. Environmental Forecasting: Problems, Study Pro-
files, and a Selected Bibliography. (Prepared for the
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch, OPPE,
EPA)
Girl Scouts of America. 1993. Environmental Scanning Re-
port 1994-1996. ( Available from Research Group,
GSUSA,420Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10018-2702
Gordon, T.J. and J.C. Glenn. 1993. Issues in Creating the
Millennium Project. (This was an initial report from the
Milennium Project Feasibility Study, United Nations Uni-
versity, 4421 Garrison Street, N.W., Washington, D.C.
20016-4055. It was prepared for EPA and sections are
used in this document with permission of the authors. A
copy of the detailed report is available on the Internet
"Worldewide Web. Futures@EPA.GOV. Select Pointers
and Guides and the Millinenium Project is under that
heading.)
Grant, L. 1988. Foresight and National Decisions: The Horse-
man and the Bureaucrat. 273p. University Press of
America. Lanham, MD.
Schwartz, P. 1991. The Art of the Long View. Doubleday
Publishers, New York, 258 pp.
Schwarz, B., U. Svedin, and B. Wittrock. 1982.,Methods in
Futures Studies: Problems and Applications. Westview
Press. Boulder, Colorado (Consulted only chapter 3 pp.
11-45).
Shoemaker, P.J.H. and C.A.J.M. van der Heijden. 1992. Case
Study: Integrating Scenarios into Strategic Planning at
Royal Dutch/Shell. Planning Review (May/June): 41-48.
B. Population and Demographics
Population Reference Bureau. 1993. World Population Data
Sheet (Demographic data and estimates for the countries
and regions of the world). (Available from Circulation
Department, PRB, P.O. Box 96452, Washington, D.C.
20090-6452 or 800-877-9881).
Day, J.C. 1994. Projection of the United States, by Age, Sex,
Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1993 to 2050. P25-1104. U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. (Current
Population Reports by the U.S. Bureau of the Census)
United Nations. 1992. Long-Range World Population Projec-
tions. ST/ESA/SER.A/125. New York. (These are bien-
nial projections prepared by the UN).
C. Driving Factors
Dutch Committee for Long Term Environmental Policy. 1991.
Highlights from "The Environment: Ideas for the 21st
Century". (This article and the 640 page book it describes
are available from CLTM, P.O. Box 90740,2509 LS The
Hague, Netherlands.)
McCabe, G., C. Orians, C. Cluett, K. Branch, and N. Johnson.
1991. Driving Variables that Impact Environmental Qual-
ity. (Prepared by Battelle Human Affairs Research Cen-
ters, Seattle and Department of Economics, University of
Washington for the Environmental Forecasting Project,
. EPA)
D. Energy
Office of Technology Assessment. 1993. Assessment Activi-
ties.
World Resources Institute. 1991. A Comparative of U.S.
Energy Sector Forecasts and Their Usefulness to EPA.
(Prepared in support of the EPA.)
E. Technology
Carnegie Commission. 1992. Enabling the Future: Linking
Science and Technology to Societal Goals. (Available
from the Carnegie Commission, 10 Waverly Place, New
York, N.Y. 10003)
National Science Technology Council. 1994. Technology for
a Sustainable Future: A Framework for Action. (Avail-
able from Environmental Technology Strategy Staff,
OSTP, Room 443, Old Executive Office Building, Wash-
ington, D.C. 20500)
Olson, R.L. and M. Superka. 1994. Technology for a Sustain-
able Future. Institute for Alternative Futures. Alexandria,
VA. (Available from IAF, 108 N. Alfred Street, Alexan-
dria, VA)
F. Trends
Gas Research Institute. 1992. Environmental Trends and Is-
sues at the Research Horizon. GRI-92/0156. (Available
from the Gas Research Institute, 8600 Bryn Mawr Av-
enue, Chicago, IL 60631.)
77
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U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute. 1994. 1994 Envi-
ronmental Trends Update. (Available from Mr. Robert
Jarrett, U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute, 430
Tenth St., NW» Suite S-206, Atlanta, GA 30318. Note the
SAB was given a working draft of this paper which may
not be available, however, a 1993 Environmental Trends
Update has been published.)
G. Ocean Health
Anderson, D.M. 1994. Red Tides. Scientific American (Au-
gust);62,
Culotta, E. February 1994. Is Marine Biodiversity at Risk?
Science 263:918.
Holloway, M, 1994. Diversity Blues. Scientific American.
(August) p. 16.
Hughes, T. P. 1994. Catastrophes, Phase Shifts and Large-
Scale Degradation of a Caribbean Coral Reef. Science
265:1547-1551.
Kerr, R.A. 1988. Linking Earth, Ocean, and Air at AGU.
Science 239:259.
Morris, K.S. 1994. Beluga: White Whale of the North. Na-
tional Geographic (June):2.
Robinson, M. 1986, Update: Sellafield Sea-Dumping, in Let-
ters Harpers 272 (1633):4.
"Sources if Marine Pollution" 1989. In: The Time Atlas and
Encyclopedia of the Sea. Alastair Couper, Ed. Harper and
Row. New York. pp. 172-177.
The Encyclopedia of the Environment, Ruth A. Eblen and
William R. Eblen, Editors. Houghton Mifflin Company,
New York (1994). See articles p. 168 "Marine Ecology"
by James Nybakken, Moss Landing Marine Laboratory,
California State University; p. 252 "Fishing Industry" by
William G. Gordon, Marine Fisheries Consultant, Fairplay,
Colorado; p. 294 "Marine Geology" by James Craig,
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University,
Blacksburg, Virginia; p. 641 "Sea and Lake Zones" by
Patrick L. Brezonik, University of Minnesota; p. 121
"Coral Reefs" by Thomas L. Goreau, Global Coral Reef
Alliance; p. 495 "Ocean Dumping" by Julia Ruttenberg,
Dubos Center for Human Environments, Inc., New York,
New York; p. 595 "Oceanography" by William A.
Nieremberg, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La
Jolla, California; p. 512 "Oxygen Cycle" by Aharon
Gibor, University of California at Santa Barbara; p. 645
"Seawater" by William R. Eblen, Dubos Center for Hu-
man Environments, Inc., New York, New York.
"The Ocean Crisis" 1993. In: An Atlas of Planet Management.
Norman Myers, Editor. Doubleday. New York .pp.76-93
78
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Appendix I
List of Organizations and Individuals Contacted
Futures Methods (How to do it)
Bob Olson
Jonathan Peck
Institute for Alternative Futures*
William Leffler, Shell Oil Company*
Lester Brown, WorldWatch Institute*
Rob Axtel and
John Epstein
Brookings Institution*
Institutional process (How to make it count)
Mr. Dewitt John
National Association of Public Administration*
Dr. Mary Lowe Good**
Under Secretary for Technology Administration
Department of Commerce
Ms. Sherri Goodman**
Deputy Under Secretary of Defense
for Environmental Security
Department of Defense
Ms. Christine Ervin**
Assistant Secretary for Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy
Department of Energy
Dr. Chia Shin**
Associate Administrator for Research,
Technology, and Analysis
Department of Transportation
Dr. Karen Hulebak**
Office of Policy
Food and Drug Administration
Dr. David Berry**
Materials Branch
Bureau of Mines
Megatrends and Drivers (Activities that shape the future)
1. Demographics-Census, UN
Carl Haub, Population Institute*
*Made a presentation at a public meeting.
**Participated in a fact-finding session.
All others have attended meetings, offered coments and ideas, and provided.
documents.
Mr. Jack Sullivan, American Water Works Association*
2. Science and Technology
Dr. Peter Blair, Office of Technology Assessment*
Stephen Wolff, National Science Foundation*
Ms. Meg Maguire, Maguire Associates*
Mr. Peter Hawley, National Endowment for the Arts*
American Institute of Chemical Engineers
American Industrial Health Council**
3. Energy-EPRJ, Gas Research Institute, DOE
Dr. Michael Totten, Director of Solar Energy Research
and Education Foundation*
Dr. Irwin Billick
Gas Research Institute
4. Agriculture-USD A
Dr, George Byrd, Michigan State University*
Dr. Daniel Kugler*, Deputy Administrator, Cooperative
Extension Service, USDA, Washington, DC
5. Environmental Groups
Mr. Jonathan Lash, President,
World Resources Institute
Dr. Robert Coppock, Director Project 2050**
Washington, DC
Dr. Allen Hammond*
World Resources Institute,
New York, NY.
Mr. Ralph DeGennaro**
Ms. Velma Smith
Friends of the Earth
Nature Conservancy
Arlington, VA
Sharon Newsome**
National Wildlife Federation
Dr. Theo Colborn**
World Wildlife Fund
Ms. Debora James**
National Audubon Society
New. York, NY
79
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Ms. Debbie Sease
Sierra Club
Washington, DC
Mr. Bill Roberts
Environmental Defense Fund
Washington, DC
Dr. William Futrell**
Environmental Law Institute
Dr. Raymond Hayes*
Dr. S. Taseer Hussain*
Howard University (Public Health Risks of Climate
Change)
6. Business Forecasting (Oil, Pharmaceuticals; etc.)
Mr. Eugene Wheeler**
Vice President, Health, Safety and Environment
The Clorox Company
Pleasanton, CA
Ms. Helen Shapiro**
Technical Affairs
American Automobile Manufacturers Association
Ms. Pat Kenworthy**
Monsanto Company
800 N. Lindbergh Boulevard
St.. Louis, MO
Mr. John Festa**
Mr. Con Schlage**
American Forest Products and Paper Association
Washington, DC
Mr. Carl Costello
Environmental Issues Specialist
American Institute of Architects
Washington, DC
Mr. William Frick, Vice President
Health, Environment and Safety
Mr. Paul Bailey, Director**
Health and Environmental Affairs
American Petroleum Institute
Washington, DC
Mr. Joseph Mayhew**
Assistant Vice President for Health and Safety
Chemical Manufacturers Association .
Washington, DC
7. Ocean "Health" Contacts
The following individuals provided comments and observa-
tions which are reflected in the development of the EFC
discussions on the Health of the Oceans in the Overview
report, and in Appendix A under items 3-3 and 10-2, in
Appendix B under issue 29, and in Appendix G Overarching
Issue Area V. This issue is an example of how additional
information from experts outside the SAB was gathered.
Dr. Dean Stackwell
Dr. Tony Amos
University of Texas Marine Laboratory
Port Aransas, TX
Dr. Jimmy Ray, Director
Texas A&M Marine Station
Galveston, TX
Dr. James Brooks, Director
GERG
Texas A&M University
College Station, TX
Dr. John Farrington, Dean
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Woods Hole, MA
Dr. Jane Lubchenko, Professor
Oregon State University
Corvallis, OR
Dr. Fred Grassle
Rutgers University
Newark, NJ
80
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