SECOND JOINT U.S./USSR SYMPOSIUM
ON THE COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS
OF THE ENVIRONMENT
OCTOBER 21-26, 1975
-------
SECOND JOINT U.S./USSR SYMPOSIUM ON
THE COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS
OF THE ENVIRONMENT
Honolulu, Hawaii, October 21-26, 1975
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20460
-------
DISCLAIMER
This report has been reviewed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products
does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.
-------
CONTENTS
Page
Preface v
Introduction vi
Acknowledgments vii
Paper title, authors
General Approaches to the Problem of
Maximum Permissible Load on the Environment
Author: Yuri A.j Izrael 1
Are We on Track in Assessing Environment
Stress on Man?
Author: Frode Ulvedal 5
Internal Substance Cycling in the Main Types
of the Natural Ecosystems over the Territory
Authors: I. P. Gerasimov; Yu. A. Isakov; D. V. Panfilov 9
Global Balance and Maximum Permissible
Mercury Emissions into the Atmosphere
Authors: B. P. Abramovskiy; Yu. A. Anokhin; V. A. lonov;
I. M. Nazarov; A. Kh. Ostromogil'skiy 14
Human Risk Assessment Based on Laboratory Animal Studies
Author: D. G. Hoel 22
Environmental Stress and Behavior: Response
Capabilities of Marine Fishes
Authors: Bori L. Olla; Anne L. Studholme 25
Principles of Setting Norms of Anthropogenic
Influences on the Vertebrate Population
Authors: V. Ye. Sokolov; I. A. Il'yenko 32
Extrapolation of Animal Data to Human Response:
An Assessment of the Factors Involved
Author: Thomas J. Haley 41
Determination of Criteria of Harmless Chemical
Effects on the Human Organism and the Problem
of Permissible Loading
Author: A. P. Shitskova 47
Projected Health Implications of Major
Automotive Emissions
Authors: John H. Knelson; Robert E. Lee, Jr 51
Hygienic Criteria of Maximum Permissible Load
Authors: G. I. Sidorenko; M. A. Pinigin 56
Rationale for the Assessment of Carcinogenic Risks
Author: Roy E. Albert 61
Genetic Aspects of Permissible Load Determination
Author: L. M. Filippova 64
Biological Effects of Non-Ionizing Radiation
Author: Joe A. Elder 68
Pollutants and Progeny
Author: K. Diane Courtney 75
iii
-------
Page
The Problem of Comprehensive Evaluation of the Danger
of the Emergence of Remote Consequences of the Effects
of Various Environmental Factors
Authors: N. F. Izmerov; I. V. Sanotskiy 80
The Detection of Naturally Occurring and Man-Made
Carcinogens and Mutagens by the DNA Repair Assay
Authors: H. F. Stich; R.C.H. San; P. Lam;
D. J. Koropatnick 85
Organization of Biosphere Preserves (Stations)
in the USSR
Authors: I. P. Gerasimov; Yu. A. Izrael; V. Ye. Sokolov 89
Theoretical Foundations of Global Ecological Forecasting
Author: S. S. Shvarts 92
The Problem of the Maximum Permissible Effects of the
Anthropogenic Factor from the Ecologist's Viewpoint
Author: V. D. Fedorov 98
On the Ecosystem's Stability
Author: A. M. Molchanov 109
Ecological Modeling and Estimation of Stress
Author: Richard A. Park 119
An Ecological-Economic Model of the Use of Nature
Author: M. Lemeshev 127
Mathematical Simulation Model of the Lake Baykal Region as a Method for
Comprehensive Analysis, Long-Term Forecasting and Determination
of the Permissible Yields of the Influence of National Economic
Activity on Environmental Quality and the State of Ecological Systems
Authors: Yu. A. Izrael; Yu. A. Anokhin; A. Kh. Ostromogil'skiy;
F. M. Semevskiy; S. M. Semenov; V. N. Kolesnikova 133
Management Systems for Minimizing Regional
Environmental Stress: Research on Applied Aspects
of Planning, Implementation and Enforcement
Author: Charles N. Ehler 144
Mathematical Analysis of Some Ecological-Economic Models
Authors: M. Ya. Antonovskiy; S. M. Semenov 155
IV
-------
PREFACE
This proceeding includes papers presented at the Second U.S./USSR Sym-
posium on Comprehensive Analysis of the Environment. All the papers, except
for one, were given in English or Russian at Honolulu, Hawaii, USA between
October 23, 1975 and October 25, 1975. The paper by Gerasimov, Izrael, and
Sokolov was given in New York on October 20, 1975 at a joint meeting with
Biosphere Reserves Project.
The publication of these proceedings is in accordance with the Memorandum
of the Fourth Meeting of the U.S./USSR Joint Committee on Cooperation in the
Field of Environmental Protection, signed in Washington on October 31, 1975,
which called for independent publication in both the United States and the
Soviet Union.
-------
INTRODUCTION
The Joint U.S./USSR Committee on Cooperation in the Field of Environ-
mental Protection was established in May 1972. These Proceedings result from one
of the projects, Project VII-2.1 Comprehensive Analysis of the Environment,
derived from the formation of the Joint Committee.
The project derives its strength and value from the idea that it is important
for scientists who share a concern for the environment to take a broad look at the
subject and to exchange views with their colleagues. It is hoped by this process
to help assure that the overall goals are not lost in the clutter of minutia. These
Proceedings cover the Second Symposium held by the Project on the general theme
of Maximum Acceptable Environmental Stress on Organisms, Populations, Eco-
systems, and the Biosphere as a Whole. I think that the quality of the papers was
extraordinarily good, and I here thank again all the participants for the effort
they made. I would like to especially thank my Project Co-Chairperson Izrael
(and also the Soviet Chairperson of the Joint Committee) for bringing with him
a group of such excellence.
Roger S. Cortesi
Chairperson U.S. Side
VI
-------
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Yuri A. Izrael and Roger Cortesi were Chairpersons of this project, Compre-
hensive Analysis oj the Environment, and they were responsible for organization
of the symposium.
Special credit must go to William Brown, Special Assistant to EPA Adminis-
trator Russell Train, for the U.S./USSR Environmental Agreement, for advice and
help in carrying out the symposium, and to John Dovel of EPA for skillful handling
of countless and often exasperating details.
vn
-------
GENERAL APPROACHES TO THE PROBLEM OF MAXIMUM
PERMISSIBLE LOAD ON THE ENVIRONMENT
YURI A. IZRAEL
The concept of the permissible load on the en-
vironment is extremely complex and ambiguous. In
attempting to formulate a definition of the permissi-
ble load, we are faced with completely natural ques-
tions. What determines the permissibility of the load?
Is it the lack of any changes in the environment or
only undesirable changes? If they are undesirable,
then for whom? Is it for an individual or for the
components comprising the natural ecosystems of
the species and population of animals and plants or
is it for the biosphere and mankind as a whole?
Which effects are we discussing? Those which are
natural, where the environment changes slowly and
evolves, or those which are artificial (anthropogenic)
where nature can change quickly and even deteri-
orate?
Let us attempt to formulate the approaches to the
problem of permissible loads, their effect on the
environment from the point of view of ecology, keep-
ing in mind the anthropogenic planned or unplanned
effects.
To begin with, let us attempt to define the qualities
of the environment since, at the present time, a gen-
erally accepted definition does not exist.
It is also necessary to define the initial, or base
line, in order to begin a calculation of the state, at
the present time, or for example, the state prior to
the beginning of the intrinsic anthropogenic effect.
Without laying claim to a complete understanding
of the environment, we assume that the high (or suf-
ficient) quality of the environment, for the specific
ecosystem, implies: a. the potential for the stable
existence and development of the given, historically
developed or created, or transformed by man eco-
logical system, in a given point or area; b. the ab-
sence of unfavorable consequences for any (or the
most important), and primarily human population
located in that area either historically or temporarily.
In this instance it is possible to examine the quality
of the environment for the particular population.
Biological (ecological) criteria exist and can be de-
fined to show the high quality of the environment:
high biological productivity, optimal correlation of
the species, biomass population, located at various
trophic levels and so forth (see for example [1]).
In the broadest sense, we understand the per-
missible anthropogenic load on the environment to
be the load (composed of individual, uniform and
heterogeneous actions) which does not change the
qualities of the environment, or change it within the
permissible limits; that is, does not result in the de-
struction of the existing ecological system and the
appearance of unfavorable consequences among the
most important, and primarily human, populations.
In our opinion, all ecosystems of the biomass can
be conditionally divided into two categories:
—unique or prohibited areas where fallout of any
sort is forbidden; natural ecosystems where it is
incumbent to observe the basic requirements to
maintain the ecosystems and the high quality
of the environment, but where certain individual
changes are possible (large forest areas and
seas);
—zones with heavily transformed ecosystems or
artificial ecosystems (agricultural areas, cities,
canals or rivers, and so forth).
However, the question arises whether it is possible,
while maintaining the regulations, to permit the com-
plete destruction of individual species without violat-
ing the viability of the ecological system. Thus, it
would seem that the destruction of individual orga-
nisms on Lake Baykal would be a catastrophe for
the unique ecosystem of the entire lake.
In our opinion, in determining the permissible
load, it is necessary to adopt as the base, the signifi-
cance of the function of the state of the biosphere,
which at the present time is not affected by local
influences.
It is necessary to take into consideration the state
at all stages of the individual, population, commu-
nity, ecological system and finally the biosphere as
a whole.
Let us introduce a certain function of the state of
the ecosystem or of another element of the biosphere
(characteristic of, for example, the volume of the
biomass, productivity, metabolism, energy exchange
in the system, or a combination of these and other
analogous factors):
ifot)
-------
(converted in space and time), or a generalized func-
tion for region (•*.-•-
l*(t)=J |(R.t)dR (i)
This function may be recorded for the ecosystem as
a whole, or at any stage of any population, and then
examined within its permissible limits.
Let us introduce the function of the artificial in-
fluence which is capable of changing the state of the
ecosystem under study:
or:
H(R.t)
H*(t)= I H(R,t)dR
(2)
Then:
l«a(t)=l*(t)H(t) (3)
describes the change in the state of the elements of
the biosphere under the influence of the artificial
factor (Figure 1).
zone of
ecological reserve
__-perm (min)
crit (min)
non-permissible zone
Figure 1. Biosphere elements changed by artificial factor.
Apparently, it is possible to determine the critical
and permissible values of functions Icrit. and Iperm.
which must differ from each other.
It can be seen from Figure 1 (which illustrates
these changes), that in the majority of cases Icrtti has
two sets of values: maximum and minimum, while
the permissible values lie in between; a change of I
from time is determined by a change in the external
factors such as: temperature, humidity and so forth.
The difference between the actual and permissible
state (as well as at times, the critical) is the ecological
reserve of that system. By comparing these curves
it is easy to find the "critical" zones and to determine
priorities in locating the most stressed situation and
in adopting the appropriate and most important
measures.
Analogous curves may be examined, as well, for
the function of action determined, from the curves,
the "critical" zones and "reserve" zones (Figure 2).
Minimum and maximum critical levels exist for
many of the action factors, while the optimum value
lies in between. The difference in the values of the
permissible Hperin. and critical Hcrit. action factors
may (or should) be quite significant. Thus, for cer-
tain fish populations this difference for pesticides is
found in the interval of 2-2.103, for heavy metals
10-10s [2] and for man, for gamma irradiation, this
difference reaches 10*.
H*ft)
____ __perm (max)
crit zone
non-permissible" zone
crit (max)
H*a
.perm (min)
crit (min)
Figure 2. Curves for the function of action.
The above-mentioned curves can be plotted for
various media and pollutants. Such an investigation
is equivalent to a study of various limiting factors
for some populations or ecosystems within the appro-
priate tolerance range.
Formulation of the permissible or maximum per-
missible load, its theoretical and experimental calcu-
lation, are necessary for the solution of a number of
problems and employment in various areas:
—designing and implementing economic develop-
ment, construction of cities, recreational devel-
opment in the specific area;
—determining priorities in the activities designed
to protect man and his environment in zones of
intensive man-made action;
—defining the economic consequences of the ac-
tions and measures directed toward reducing
such actions;
—providing optimum monitoring systems for the
environment.
Of course, the enumerated tasks are in a majority
of cases closely linked; the solution of each of them
calls for certain results obtained during the solution
of other problems.
-------
Let us examine the approaches to a determination
of permissible loads, in accordance with the indi-
cated spheres of application.
It appears to us, that maintenance of a sufficiently
high quality of the environment requires:
—for the normal functioning of the ecosystem—
not exceeding the maximum permissible eco-
logical load (MPEL) for the specific ecosystem.
In reaching this value, accounting must be made
of all the factors of the combined and complex
actions on the ecosystem. Efforts in this direc-
tion are underway; however, such values still
have not been calculated even in the form of
examples for individual regions;
—for assuring the absence of undesirable conse-
quences among individual populations—not ex-
ceeding such values which provide the high
quality of the environment for the specific popu-
lation either directly [for example, the maxi-
mum permissible concentration (MAC)] for
man, secondary standards for vegetation and
so on, or for the entire ecological chain, having
direct significance for the specific population
(for example the MFC for individual species of
catch fish). A substantial volume of material
of a scientific and technical nature is available
in this field. The USSR has developed MFC
values for hundreds of ingredients for man and
certain other populations.
Development of the MFC for individual popula-
tions began significantly earlier (thus, the MFC for
man underwent development in the USSR in the
thirties). This work is somewhat simpler than the
development of ecological norms since, in essence,
it includes only some of the elements of the work
which must be carried out to determine permissible
conditions for the ecosystem as a whole.
However, the situation has already pointed out the
need for carrying out the work and implementing
ecological norms.
Thus, development of permissible man-made loads
on the ecosystems of unique natural objects is prac-
tically necessary, for example, the unique ecosystem
of Lake Baykal. However, differences still exist in
the approaches to the development of the MFC and
MPEL values. In computing the MFC, the permis-
sible values were taken from values of concentrations
where the population did not manifest either any
harmful, undesirable pathological effects or any no-
ticeable reaction. The difference between the MFC
value and the maximum critical values of concentra-
tions of the maximum critical concentrations (which
can be lethal for certain individuals) reaches signifi-
cant values (as noted above). Of course, this differ-
ence assures a large reserve of "stability" in the
population while adhering to the MFC, or even dur-
ing slight excesses of the MFC values.
The values of the MPEL are currently based on
an understanding of the resistance of the ecosystem,
or the critical state of the ecosystem or of its indi-
vidual links and levels. In this instance, the reserve
of stability is absent — upon attaining the MPEL,
the ecosystem may begin to disintegrate. Of course,
in this instance, as well, it is possible to introduce
the concept of the permissible ecological load (PEL)
based on like concepts of the MFC. An example is
the introduction of obligatory adherence of the MFC
for all links in the ecosystem or even a certain "com-
plex" MFC, taking into account the interaction
among separate populations. At that point there also
will be a reserve of stability (an ecological reserve)
formed on the basis of the difference between the
PEL and MPEL (as demonstrated in Figures 1
and 2).
If the MFC were originally worked out and im-
plemented for man then, in developing the MPEL,
the question arises as to priorities, which ecosystems
and which locations (areas or regions) require the
greatest effort in raising the quality of the environ-
ment.
The question is also raised as to how the priorities
are set with regard to the factors of action, sources
of action, sectors of industry and so forth.
It is obvious that if the load exceeds the permis-
sible point, the man-made action will cause harm to
the population, ecosystem and biosphere as a whole.
As previously referred to [3], it is possible to dis-
tinguish provisionally the ecological, economic and
esthetic damages. Unquestionably there is a link
between the designated forms of damage and, in
particular, the ecological and economic.
It is not difficult to assume that ecological losses
are in direct relation dependent on the degree of
action of various factors on the biosphere.
Generally, when the ecological losses for the m
population (noted in a simplified form, see [3]):
Am(t) =
J_'J
R
(4)
where
-------
For example, when dealing with regions, the high-
est priority must be assigned to cities as well as /ones
which provide drinking (potable) water; for the
media, air and fresh water wells; by pollutant (for
air particulates) sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide,
nitric oxide; for water — biogennic products, phe-
nols, etc.; for sources of pollution for example in
cities, thermal electric power stations, boilers and
motor transport.
These curves may also be used for economic
calculations, superimposing on them economic con-
ditions and searching for optimal results.
The enumerated examples point up the diversity
of solutions in determining particular priorities.
The setting of priorities in the calculation and
implementation of maximum permissible loads in-
dicates at the same time the setting of priorities to
protect man and his environment from harmful man-
made influences, and also provides a determination
of the degree of damage (or presence thereof, in
general) of the given action.
It may be that certain man-made actions, under
certain conditions, may be totally harmless while
under other conditions, and with the same physical
intensity, they may result in substantial damage to
the ecosystem (here we are dealing primarily with
actions not linked to pollution).
This statement is particularly important in de-
nning the strategies of the optimum interaction of
man and nature.
In other words the permissible man-made load
must not be calculated by using some fixed value,
set in perpetuity or so assigned, it is (or may appear)
a fixed component of an available time in a specified
period, and a natural effect of the reserve of "sta-
bility" of the ecological system.
In conclusion, the approaches employed in the
development of priorities coincide to a significant de-
gree with the approaches adopted during the de-
velopment of the optimal system for monitoring the
state of the environment.
The basic tasks of the monitoring system include
an evaluation of the state of the biosphere, a prog-
nosis of its state, the development of the most sig-
nificant factors of action including the definition of
priorities, and development of the sources of these
actions.
This provides the basis for monitoring, which re-
quires the implementation of a search for the critical
or most sensitive links in the ecosystem, most nearly
characterizing the system and its state, that is, the
representative links; and a search for indices most
pertinent to the active factors and pointing to the
sources of such action.
REFERENCES
1. Shvarts, S. S., Theoretical Foundations of Global Eco-
logical Forecasting, Works of the Symposium.
2. Dzhonson, Kh. Ye., The Effect of Pollution on Species
and Populations of Fish and Birds, Comprehensive
Analysis of the Environment (Works of the Soviet-
American Symposium), Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad,
1975, pp 158-176.
3. Izrael', Yu. A., Complex Analysis of the Environment.
Approaches to Determining Permissible Loads on the
Natural Environment and Establishing Monitors, pp
17-25.
-------
ARE WE ON TRACK IN ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL
STRESS ON MAN?
FRODE ULVEDAL
Are we on the right track in assessing the health
impact of the many environmental stresses to which
we are exposed? From my vantage point in the
Environmental Protection Agency and from what I
have heard during the past few days, my answer
must be "yes." However, I hasten to say that we
are all just beginning on this track, and we have a
long way to go before we can truly say we are as-
sessing man's total exposure and his total body
burden of pollutants and the resulting health effects.
In our daily lives, we are exposed to a multitude
of physical stresses, such as flickering artificial lights,
noises of all types (from typewriters to airplanes).
We have traffic jams to contend with as we go to
work and return home, with the associated stress of
auto pollution; the stress at our workplace, whether
chemical, physical, or emotional, all these factors
must be considered. Therefore, man is exposed to
a great variety of stresses simultaneously, some chem-
ical, some physical, and some psychological. Man
is exposed to chemical agents through food, water,
and air; man is also exposed to microbiological
agents through the same media. We must, therefore,
begin to seriously cooperate in looking at the total
exposure and total body burden to which we are
exposed during each 24-hour period in the day, for
the seven days in the week, for the months, and for
the year. In some cases, we must even look at life-
time exposures.
Obviously, I don't have all the answers as to how
we can proceed, but maybe I have some suggestions
as to how we can start. And, by collectively think-
ing about this matter, some of the answers may
become obvious although the solutions may remain
difficult.
Since environmental health-related research activi-
ties are the responsibility of many agencies in this
country, let me begin by citing examples of inter-
agency agreements which are occurring, but should
be widened and formalized.
The Occupational Safety and Health Administra-
tion proposed an occupational standard for arsenic
in the air at 2.0 /ug/m3. The water office in the EPA,
based on their research, wanted to change the drink-
ing water standard for arsenic from 0.05 to 0.1 /ig/1.
By considering the total impact on man's burden and
in cooperation with OSHA, EPA retained its drink-
ing water standard for arsenic at the lower level.
The Food and Drug Administration [1] tells us
that the average American is now receiving through
his diet 70 to 90 percent of the allowable intake of
cadmium. The EPA is at the same time exploring
the feasibility of using wastewater and sludge on
agricultural land for disposal and treatment, and for
watering and fertilizing crops. These residues which
will be applied to land may contain many unwanted
compounds, including cadmium which may be re-
turned to man via the drinking water or his food,
whether from meats or vegetables. In other words,
man could be exposed to an increased burden of
cadmium because of action the EPA might take.
However, by cooperative work with the FDA and
the Department of Agriculture we learn what crops
will not take up cadmium and in what organs of
food animals cadmium may accumulate. So, by
having three agencies work together, we can mini-
mize the cadmium load in man.
We have set standards for several gaseous and
particulate pollutants in the ambient air. However,
the exposure we received of these pollutants indoors
where we spend 70 percent of our time was inade-
quately considered when these standards were set.
Although we know that when someone is cooking
over a gas stove, that person may be exposed to
higher NOx levels than the ambient standard allows.
[2] Let me give you an example.
The CHESS studies [3] have clearly associated
significantly increased frequencies of acute lower
respiratory illness with ambient levels of oxides of
nitrogen. Now we have strong indications that in-
creased frequencies of acute lower respiratory dis-
eases are also associated with indoor air pollutants
which arise from domestic use of gas for cooking,
again this is mostly due to nitrogen oxides [4].
A comparison between families cooking and heating
with electricity and families cooking and heating with
gas showed that members of the families using gas
for cooking reported a significantly higher frequency
-------
of acute lower respiratory illness. The greatest ex-
cess in morbidity was found among the mothers who
would be the most exposed family member. The
EPA is now beginning to look at this to assess the
effects of total NOX load.
By this example, I again hope to have illustrated
the importance of looking at all of the routes of
exposure when assessing the need for regulating a
pollutant.
Furthermore, the rugs on which we walk contain,
in all likelihood, pesticides which are not accounted
for when we talk about banning pesticides for out-
door use. [5] (The pesticides were introduced during
the processing and manufacturing of the rugs.) Yet,
man is exposed to pesticides through air, water, and
food as well. Now we are beginning to look at this.
Let us consider noise for a moment. This is an-
other consequence of industrialization and techno-
logical development. This pollution seems to have
shown an impressive increase in the last years.
Numerous authors [6] have shown that noise pro-
vokes psychological stress reactions, not only as
concomitants to the distress reactions implicit in the
very definition of noise, but also through reflex
stimulation of auditory nerves and on the hypothal-
mic-hypophysical system. Exposure to noise can,
therefore, cause a number of mental, as well as
physical, diseases. [7]
In epidemiological studies several authors report
an increased incidence of hypertension in workers
exposed to high noise levels. This increase in mor-
bidity manifests itself after eight years of exposure,
reaching a maximum after 13 years of exposure.
There is also an increased incidence of nervous com-
plaints in similar situations. Living in areas close
to a noisy airport was accompanied by increased
numbers of admissions to psychiatric hospitals, ac-
cording to one study. [6]
Mice, when innoculated with infectious agents in
conjunction with noise stress, were more susceptible
than mice just innoculated with the infectious agent
alone (stromatile virus). Similarly, people who
breathe pollutants (e.g., NOX) are more prone to
become ill from biological systems (e.g., Klebsiella)
than from the same dose of Klebsiella without NOX.
[8]
What I am trying to point out again is that we
have to look at man in his total environment. Noise
by itself may be at a level which does not interfere
with a person's well-being. NOX may be at such
levels that it has no measurable effect, the same with
an infectious agent. But, when man is exposed to
the multitude of potentially noxious stimuli, the effect
may be both additive and debilitating.
So while we have been busy setting ambient air
standards for such pollutants as NOX, CO, etc., and
for metals and organic compounds in water, man's
defense mechanisms have been fighting insults from
a multitude of sources and types, which we are now
beginning to consider in our research efforts.
As we heard from several speakers we must begin
to look at the complicating considerations of syner-
gistic additive and antagonistic actions. It is im-
portant that we stress this aspect of our work.
Within this concept we also have to consider these
actions from several points, whether we are talking
about chemical actions or intermedia actions (e.g.,
noise vs. chemicals, noise/radiation/chemicals). Be-
cause, unless we look at the total complement of
what is present in man (or to what he is exposed),
we may possibly do more harm than good by re-
moving one component from his environment unless
we can remove all unwanted stresses.
Up to now I have cited some examples of fairly
easy variables to measure and quantify. But there
are other things associated with living in this stressful
environment which are not so easy to quantify. I am
referring to subtle and sometimes not so subtle be-
havioral effects. I am referring to the psychophysio-
logical effects and metabolic effects in populations
residing in communities where the physical and
chemical pollutants are high.
Why is it, for example, that normal rational peo-
ple when sitting in a traffic jam become irrational
and lose their tempers and start to fight at the slight-
est provocation? They have been exposed repeatedly
to the stress of the work situation, the lights, the
noise, the irritation of delay, the pollution from the
automobiles, and possibly from the food eaten, and
other factors. We had better start to look at this
complex problem in a coordinated and accelerated
fashion.
Why do we see increases in incidences of head-
aches in our population? [9] Is it because of physical
stressors like light and noise, or from noxious gases
we breathe, or is the cause to be found in a com-
bination of these environmental stressors? Will the
removal of the noxious gases we breathe be enough
to alleviate the headaches without also doing some-
thing about the flickering lights or the noises? By
removing the noxious gases from the air, will we
alleviate the suffering from increasing frequency of
attacks in asthma patients or do we also have to
remove the psychological stressors?
We know that life changes act as stressors (pro-
voking "stress selye"), thereby increasing the wear
and tear in the organism and eventually leading to a
rise in morbidity and mortality. The casual relation-
ships between exposure to psychosocial stressors
such as crowding, unemployment, malnutrition, and
subsequent disease is supported by numerous studies
[6,10,11].
-------
The general concept of psychosocially mediated
ill health is that a wide range of environmental situa-
tions (such as those related to population density
and migration) may engage a relatively small number
of pathogenic physiological mechanisms, which may
lead to precursors of a large variety of diseases and
eventually to the diseases themselves. These are
factors which I have not yet elaborated on but which
we must consider. Because as we consider the qual-
ity of life we must take into account the totality of
all components concerned, balancing against each
other the various needs of the individual and the
politically determined priorities concerning the needs
of various individuals and groups. The EPA has
begun to look at this, but the effort is small com-
pared to what is needed. Maybe this is an area of
future collaboration.
I hope I have made my point regarding the need
for looking at the total environment but let me add
another regarding this mobile population we have
today.
Certain chronic diseases have been associated with
migration status. As summarized by Myers [11],
the evidence on coronary heart disease indicates
higher rates for rural people migrating to the city
than for native urbanites in the U.S. cities studied.
This could be attributed to the new physical, chemi-
cal, and psychological stress imposed on the migrant.
Haenzel, et al. [12,13] found the mortality from
lung cancer higher among urban residents born in
rural areas than in lifetime residents (with age and
level of smoking controlled). The cause could again
be due to the physical and chemical stresses, it could
also mean that born urbanites have adjusted, adapted,
or compensated (increased tolerance) to the stressful
environment. But, we don't know for sure, do we?
Also, Korpi [14] compared the number of days on
sick leave. Male migrants from rural areas were
found to exhibit higher absenteeism than persons
born in cities. The more urbanized the area to which
they migrated, the higher the absenteeism. Females
exhibited similar trends.
I realize, as you do, that the whole picture of
environmental stressors as it impacts on man is com-
plex and that we have to begin to look at something.
So we look at air pollutants and their effects and
water pollutants and their effects. A piecemeal effort
to be sure, but a start.
But as we do this, why can't we also start to put
the pieces together in a coordinated fashion? There
is enough for all the U.S. agencies to do and there
is enough for the Soviet agencies to do without over-
lapping on each other's work.
So my plea is this:
Why not start to look at -man as an entity, look at
what he is exposed to outdoors, indoors, in the work-
place, and what he eats. Sure, we can start by look-
ing at individual pollutants as man must handle them,
whether it is asbestos from air, water, food, or
dermal contact. At least then we are looking at the
total body burden of asbestos. We can do the same
for specific organic compounds or anything else.
At the same time, someone else can look at the
effects of electromagnetic radiation (e.g., radar)
which is suspected of causing cancer, cardiovascular
changes, and even birth defects in people living in
the vicinity of areas with radar usage and of altering
immunological response.
We also need a centralized authority who can
oversee what all the various agencies are doing and
that they are doing it in a coordinated and collabora-
tive fashion. This would make sense, at least to me,
both scientifically and economically.
We can start to screen out dangerous chemical
compounds before they are used in products or
manufacturing processes. This would diminish new
toxic substances from entering the environment.
This, however, is easier said than done. (Some 2
million chemical compounds are known, and an esti-
mated 25,000 new ones are developed every year.
Of this total, about 10,000 have significant com-
mercial use, and most of them are not dangerous.
Even so, to test those that might be carcinogens,
cause birth defects and other diseases would be
time-consuming and costly [15].) It can, however,
be done, by close cooperation between manufactur-
ers and government, in a check and balance of testing
and regulatory functions. There could also be a
mandatory heavy fine; e.g., $100,000 per day for
noncooperation or violations, or closing of the manu-
facturing plant until pollution has been reduced to
acceptable levels.
I would also convene a national task force of ex-
perts who would develop the overall strategy and set
the priority for the various projects. This could later
be expanded to encompass an international body of
experts under the auspices of the U.N. or WHO, but
new mandates and authorities would be needed for
that. [16]
On the international level, since environmental
stress is universal, closer collaborations and exchange
of informaion among all nations make equally as
much sense and for the same scientific and economic
reasons.
Above all else, agreement between the nations on
definitions (criteria) and methods of measurement of
pollution is obviously desirable if the results of re-
search work in different countries are to be com-
pared.
For example, if we look at the NOX standards, we
find for:
-------
United States
Canada
West Germany
Japan
USSR
0.05 ppm/year,
0.13ppm/24hours
0.10 ppm/24 hours,
0.20 ppm/hour
0.05 ppm/long term,
0.15 ppm/short term
0.02 ppm/24 hours
0.05 ppm/24 hours
Why these differences in standards when the
human body is affected the same way, regardless of
nationality? We live on this planet together, and
together we have to take care of it. It is not very
big, is it?
Thank you for letting me give you my philosophy
on the problems of environmental stress as I see
them facing man.
REFERENCES
1. "Compliance Program Evaluation: Total Diet Studies:
FY-73." Bureau of Foods, Federal Drug Administra-
tion, January 9, 1975.
2. Cote, W. A., W. A. Wade IV, J. E. Yocom. "A Study
of Indoor Air Quality." Environmental Monitoring
Series EPA 650/4-74-042.
3. Pearlman, M. E., J. F. Finklea, J. P. Creason, C. M.
Shy, M. M. Young, and R. J. Horton, "Nitrogen Diox-
ide and Lower Respiratory Illness." Pediatrics 47(2);
391-398, February 1971.
4. Finklea, John F., "Indoor Air Pollution with Nitrogen
Dioxide." Personal Communication. July 29, 1974.
5. Durham, William. Personal Communication. 1974.
6. Carlestam, G. et al. "Stress and Disease in Response
to Exposure to Noise: A Review, Proceedings of the
International Congress on Noise as a Public Health
Problem. May 13-18, 1973.
7. Kagan, Aubrey R. and Lennart Levi. "Health and En-
vironment— Psychological Stimuli: A Review." Soc.
Sci. & Med. 8, 225-241.
8. Ehrlich, R., M. C. Henry and J. Fenters. "Influence of
Nitrogen Dioxide on Resistance to Respiratory Infec-
tions." In: Inhalation Carcinogenesis, AEC Symposium
18. M. G. Hanna, Jr., P. Nettesheim and J. R. Gilbert
(Eds.). Oak Ridge, Tennessee. U.S. Atomic . Energy
Commission, Division of Technical Information Exten-
sion. April 1970, pp. 243-257. (NTIS Conf.-691001)
9. Coddon, D. R., U.S. News and World Report, p. 51,
September 15, 1975.
10. Levi, L. and L. Anderson, Population, Environment,
and Quality of Life. Almanna Forlaget, April 1974.
11. Myers, G. C., "Health Effects of Urbanization and
Migration." International Union for the Scientific Study
of Population. London, 1969.
12. Haenszel, W. et al. "Lung Cancer Mortality as Related
to Residence and Smoking History: White Males."
Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 28, 947. 1962.
13. Haenszel, W. et al. "Lung Cancer Mortality as Related
to Residence and Smoking History: White Females."
Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 32, 803. 1964.
14. Korpi, W., Flyttning Och Halsa. Mimeographed Re-
port. Department of Sociology, University of Umea,
Umea, Sweden. 1972. (Reported by Levi, See 10).
15. Time Magazine, October 19, 1975.
16. Kiyoura, Raisaku. 'The Need for International Models
of Environmental Standards." International Confer-
ence on Environmental Sensing and Assessment. Las
Vegas, Nevada, September 14-19, 1975.
-------
INTERNAL SUBSTANCE CYCLING IN THE MAIN TYPES OF THE
NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS OVER THE TERRITORY
I. P. GERASIMOV, YU. A. ISAKOV, and D. V. PANFILOV
Development of regional-geographic or ecological
investigations and the multiplicity of approaches em-
ployed leads not only to a rapid accumulation of a
variety of data on natural ecosystems, but also poses
many new tasks in the fields of geography and bi-
ology. Included among such problems is the para-
mount one of the typology of natural ecosystems as
one of the cornerstones in the building of their gen-
eral classification.
Generally speaking, a complete scientific typology
of natural ecosystems (regions) still does not exist,
although there are numerous approaches to it, pri-
marily based on the classification of descriptive ma-
terial of a geographic (geobotanical, soil-geographic
and physico-geographic) nature. The general result
of the processing of such materials led to the defini-
tion of the main types of existing natural ecosystems
as well as their physiognomic characteristics. Cur-
rently these characteristics are being updated with
data characterizing the conditions of the environ-
ment (for example, climatological, hydrological and
others) and the levels of the biological productivity
of various natural ecosystems which assigns to them
a certain quantitative definiteness. However, this is
not sufficient for the further development of the eco-
system typology.
A comprehensive typology of natural ecosystems
must, in addition to its descriptive framework, pro-
ceed above all from the functional characteristics of
the internal processes and the internal circulation of
substances taking place in the ecosystems. In studying
these processes, many complex tasks arise of course
which require that extensive experimental observa-
tions be carried out. Many steps have already been
taken in this direction. Nevertheless, one should not
overestimate the importance of these data. Thus, for
example, data on the total biomass of various eco-
systems and their productivity as well as the biomass
of individual components provide in themselves still
insufficiently defined characteristics for the internal
circulation of substances taking place in the eco-
systems. As a rule, correct assessment requires addi-
tional functional (genetic) analysis of the various
components' role in this evolution of the ecosystem.
At the present time there is a strong need for the
most rapid development of the typology of the main
natural ecosystems, using available indices from the
internal circulation of substances and the functional
role in it of the basic components. Such a necessity
is the result of the vast scale of the intense man-
made transformation of natural ecosystems, the radi-
cal disturbance of the natural internal circulation of
substances and the varied and frequently ruinous
consequences of it all. Therefore, one of the primary
tasks of science at the present time is the possibly
more reliable forecasting of the consequences of
actions by man. This in turn requires a clear under-
standing of the essence of the basic processes and
most importantly the natural circulation of substances
taking place in various natural ecosystems. More-
over, the large gaps in present day scientific knowl-
edge of such circulation have to be filled in, using a
variety of hypotheses and working concepts requiring
empirical verification and further clarification. The
test of such an effort is presented below in the form
of a number of principal conditions.
1. One of the most important indices of the gen-
eral nature of the internal circulation of substances
occurring in natural ecosystems is its type. Accord-
ing to this indicator all natural ecosystems can be
divided into three main groups: autonomous (inde-
pendent), transonomic (dependent) and subonomic
(subordinate) ecosystems. Such a division despite
the new terminology is sufficiently traditional. It
corresponds to both the most general physico-geo-
graphic and biogeochemical systems. Thus, the
autonomous (or independent) ecosystems should be
identified, in our opinion, with the zonal plakornymi
[?] or water divide formations; transonomic (or de-
pendent) ecosystems with introzonal formations on
depressions, developed along transit flows of matter,
and the subonomic (or subordinate) ecosystems with
azonal cumulative formations in depressions or re-
gions of the final flow of the matter, removed from
the autonomous systems. The above-cited compari-
son makes it unnecessary to comment further on the
discussion which attempts to link various types of
the circulation of substances in the ecosystems with
-------
the use of the substances formed in situ as a result of
erosion and soil-formation (autonomous or indepen-
dent ecosystems); depending on the selective intake
of substances in transitory migratory flows (tran-
sonomic or dependent ecosystems), or finally subor-
dinated (frequently forced) to the use (accumulation)
of substances from the final accumulation results
(subonomic or subordinate ecosystems). It should
only be stipulated that further texts will be devoted
to the first group of natural ecosystems alone, that
is, the autonomous systems.
2. Autonomous (independent) natural ecosystems
in their optimum development represent formations
found in a state of mobile equilibrium with the en-
vironment, that is, attaining a climax. Such a state
is the result of a lengthy evolution (within the frame-
work of geological time) for each type of the auto-
nomous ecosystem. Despite the equilibrium state,
that is, the apparent stability, it at the same time does
not at all signify that the autonomous ecosystems,
having attained the present level of development,
have ceased their further evolution. As a result of
the various states of the medium in which such eco-
systems exist as well as a result of the defined com-
position of their biota predetermined by the entire
course of preceding evolutionary development, they
possess a distinct degree of being locked in, that is,
independence of their circulation of substances. A
specific level of being enclosed, that is, the ability
to most fully utilize the substances entering the eco-
system without loss (return within) or excessive ac-
cumulation in its limits in the form of an inert,
unusable product may serve as an important index
of the overall perfection of the internal organization
of the autonomous ecosystem. As will be demon-
strated below, different types of natural ecosystems
are characterized by various levels (degrees) of their
being closed in, that is, basic differences in the levels
of their organization.
3. Along with the different degrees of locking in
the circulation of the substances, the autonomous
natural ecosystems can be characterized as well by
other integral and differentiated indices of the in-
ternal circulation of substances. Let us select from
among them, first of all, the intensity or rate of the
circulation of the substances, which we can judge by
the relationship of the entire mass of the annual
biological production of the specific ecosystem to its
total biomass. Apparently, the smaller the value, the
greater in that ecosystem is the delay of the sub-
stances in the circulation and even their temporary
conservation in a specific form. On the contrary, an
increase of the specific indicator points to a more
rapid or intensive circulation of substances, peculiar
to that ecosystem, that is, its greater dynamism. It
should be noted that this integral index of the in-
tensity of the internal processes of the circulation of
the substances in the ecosystems can and must be
supplemented with additional differential indices
such as the relationship of the annual increase in the
growth of the flora and the total increase of the
phytomass, the relationship of the scope of the an-
nual decrease in the flora to the reserves of the
cover, and others. A comparison of such differential
indices of the intensity of the circulation of sub-
stances with each other as well as with the integral
indices provides important and specific definitions
for the various types of the ecosystem.
4. An important general index of the internal
processes in the ecosystems is the structure of the
circulation of the substances. It can be judged on
the basis of various peculiarities of the ecosystem and
various indices. Let us single out three of the most
general which may be defined as the most accom-
plished, balanced and residual productivity of the
circulation of substances in the ecosystem.
—The first of these, that is, the most accomplished
may be characterized by the degree of utilization of
its entire organic mass, created in the ecosystem
through its own effort. Obviously the most important
portion of the expenditure of the organic substance
in any ecosystem in the process of its functioning is
the use of its breathing for the entire biota compris-
ing the ecosystem. Therefore, the most integrated
measure of perfection of the overall structure of the
circulation is the degree of utilization of the annual
increase of the biomass on the breathing of the living
organisms — plants and animals comprising the eco-
system. In ecosystem-climaxes in a state of dynamic
equilibrium with the environment, such a measure
must be equal, that is, 100% (zero). If, however, the
ecosystem produces a somewhat greater biomass
than is necessary for breathing its own biomass, then
the structure of the internal circulation of the sub-
stance becomes incomplete. Apparently, this is a
property which is temporary for succeeding ecosys-
tems which have not reached climax equilibrium.
—The second characteristic of the structure of
the circulation of substances in the ecosystems has
been named by us as the degree of balance. It can
be judged in the most integrated form by the rela-
tionship of the primary and secondary biological pro-
duction in the ecosystem. The high significance of
this index always points to the presence in the eco-
system of primary material which is used sparingly
or not at all in the course of the subsequent circula-
tion of substances, while the lower values speak of
a more effective structure of the circulation in the
ecosystem as a result of the attained symmetry in the
rate of production of the primary product and the
rate of its further consumption and transformation.
10
-------
Apparently, this indicator again points to the general
level of organization of the particular ecosystem.
—Finally, the residual productivity of the internal
circulation of substances may be denned as the gen-
eral relationship of the mass of the living biota with
the dead organic matter accumulated in the makeup
of the ecosystem. Such dead organic matter may
serve as an unnecessary ballast in the ecosystem with
little or no value.
Such an example is peat in an automorphic swamp.
However, in many other instances, dead organic
matter, created and accumulated within the ecosys-
tem may be an extremely important reserve of nutri-
tive and other substances necessary to the ecosystem.
This reserve, as it were, temporarily removed from
the internal circulation, is used by the ecosystem only
periodically in crisis situations for the existence of
the ecosystem. It is specifically for this reason that
it plays the role of an insurance policy for the self-
preservation of the ecosystem. An example of such
a reserve is the dead forest underbrush or the re-
serves of humus in the soil.
5. There is no doubt, that many other indices,
both integral and differential, may be used to char-
acterize the internal circulation of the substances
taking place in the autonomous natural ecosystems
(as well as in the dependent and subordinant eco-
systems) and the most important functions of their
components. However, the task of examining all
such indices goes beyond the framework of this
paper. Therefore, below we shall employ, to char-
acterize the main types of zonal ecosystems, peculiar
to the USSR, only a limited system of the above-
mentioned indices supplemented for explanatory pur-
poses with certain other qualitative characteristics.
6. The tundra ecosystems exist under conditions
of a significant shortage of heat and relatively good
moisture. As a result of the brevity of a warm
period during the year and particularly as a result
of the low temperatures of the soil and its permanent
gley soil (tundra gley soil) its phytomass is negligible.
The annual phytomass production is also small, par-
ticularly that of the land mass. As a result the in-
tensity of the circulation of the substances here is
small, the structure is characterized by noticeable
residual accumulation as a result of which the initial
production is regularly underutilized and in the upper
layers of most of the soil there is an accumulation of
undecomposed vegetative residue—the formation of
peat pointing to the irrevocable loss of a significant
quantity of organic matter and with it of biogens
from biological circulation. This, apparently, points
to the insufficient evolution of tundra ecosystems
which perhaps is explained by the absolute geological
youth of the tundra ecosystems appearing on the
surface of the Earth only during the Pleistocene (sec-
ond half) and formed from as yet insufficiently
adapted biota components.
7. Ecosystems of tayga dark-coniferous forests.
Despite the vast overall phytomass, formed primarily
by the wood and perennial reserve of conifers, the
annual increase of the flora here is relatively small.
The total zoomass in the dark-coniferous forests as
a rule, is also small and is represented primarily by
saprophage which together with bacteria and fungus
take part in the conversion of the vegetation remains
on the surface of the soil and in its upper layers.
Here the acid decay products are formed and act on
the mineral soil mass, stimulating its decomposition
(podzol formation). As a result of the shadiness of
the forests and cold soil the destruction of the flora-
detrite takes place slowly while the podzol soils
possess a low absorption capability, the plants in
turn do not ripen and cannot fully employ the min-
eral products of the organic decay. As a result many
substances, including biogens, are washed out in the
form of organo-mineral compounds in sub-soil hori-
zons reaching subsurface water and thereby are lost
to the ecosystems. The low intensity circulation of
substances and their unfavorable structure (vast ac-
cumulation of wood), as well as the large losses of
substances under the autonomous conditions also
point to the insufficient evolutionary perfection which
is possibly linked to the absolute geological youth
of the tayga systems on the plains of the USSR,
located there as a result of the broad expansion still
relatively recently. Perhaps, therefore, under the
natural conditions of the tayga ecosystem there are
tendencies simply to degenerate or be replaced by
other, although temporary, ecosystems, for example,
low-leaved forests.
8. Ecosystems of defoliated broad-leafed forests
possess a large phytomass in comparison with the
dark coniferous forests. They also differ by a much
greater production of green matter. The total zoo-
mass in these forests reaches great values. Animals
use with great intensity and over many months of the
year the primary production, in part the green form,
and primarily that shed by the trees and together
with richly represented bacteria and fungus success-
fully reduce the substances, synthesized by the plants,
to mineralization. Gray and brown forest soil is
formed here rich in clay minerals. As a result of
their large quantity in the soil, the biogens are re-
tained easily and in large volume in the absorption
complex of the soils and are used again by the roots
of plants, thereby not leaving the internal circulation
of the entire ecosystem. As a result the circulation
of substances in the broad-leafed forests is, to a
significant degree, closed as demonstrated by the
poor development of podzol formation although in
places and particularly in areas with a more humid
11
-------
climate it is seen (in acidic brown forest soils). Nor-
mally, however, the gray and particularly the brown
forest soils of broad-leafed forests contain a signifi-
cant reserve of nutritive substances used not only
by adult trees but also by brush, underbrush and
grasses.
9. Ecosystems of the meadow steppe are charac-
terized by a smaller overall phytomass; however, the
increase in them of the green mass is almost the
same as for the broad-leafed forests while the gen-
eral increase of the phytomass frequently even ex-
ceeds it. The zoomass is sizeable with the animals
intensely using the green parts of the plants, their
roots and detritus. By the formation of fertile cher-
nozen, the soil layer of the described ecosystems
accumulates a vast reserve of nutritive matter. These
substances stored over a long period of time in a
thick humus layer of the chernozen in time enter the
biological circulation through the plant with deep
root systems as a result of the burrowing activity of
rodents, primarily of badgers and gophers. The
presence of so large a reserve of biogens although
it reduces the intensity of the overall circulation of
substances is an important condition for imparting
general stability to the characterized ecosystems
capable of withstanding extreme conditions of peri-
odic crises (above all drought) in the external en-
vironment.
10. The functional structure of the ecosystems of
arid steppes is basically comparable to that of the
meadow steppe, but the total phytomass and its
annual production are less in this case; the green
parts of the plants and the roots are used more in-
tensely by the animals; mineralization of organisms
takes place more fully. Small quantities of precipi-
tation, dry air and dry upper layers of the soil de-
crease the vitality of the plants that during the
intense treatment of the biological production, leads
to an excess accumulation of mineral compounds in
the soil, with which the significant soil alkalinity
(chestnut soils and alkaline complexes) is linked.
11. Arid natural ecosystems on the territory of the
USSR are very diverse, but some general features
are common in the desert zone to the psammaphytic
or clay-less ecosystems. With a relatively small total
phytomass and low production of the green mass in
these ecosystems, the significant share of the phyto-
mass is composed of hardwood plant fibre — sur-
face and subsurface organs. Animals, particularly
in the southern desert belt, demonstrate substantial
activity throughout the year, vary in their relation-
ship to the systematic composition and adaptation,
and have a relatively large zoomass. Therefore, the
desert animals, very quickly and even greedily
consume the primary small phytoproduction and
together with the bacteria provide its nearly
total mineralization. As a result the desert soils
contain little humus, but are rich in biogens. The
latter, as a result of a shortage of moisture, cannot
always be quickly used by the plants, which, just
as the dryness of the climate, promotes the accumu-
lation in the soils of large reserves of substances, up
to the extreme leading to their salinization (brown
and grey-brown desert soils).
12. The review of the surface autonomous natural
ecosystems shows that the high degree of the closed
circulation of substances is characteristic of the ma-
jority of zonal ecosystems in the USSR, including
those which are most productive. Clearly an incom-
plete circulation with a large loss of biogens is pecu-
liar to the ecosystems of the tundra and the dark
coniferous forests of the tayga. The rate of circula-
tion of substances as a whole is the greatest for the
ecosystems of the broad-leafed forests and grassy
ecosystems of the semi-arid areas where the favor-
able combination of heat and moisture provide the
diversity and high vitality of the plants, animals and
bacteria, and the speed of synthesizing the primary
product and transformation into the secondary.
Moreover, there is an important and basic difference
between these two types of natural ecosystems in re-
gard to the reserve of biogenic substances. This re-
serve is small for the broad-leafed forests and great
in the steppe which is of vast significance for provid-
ing the latter with a high degree of stability in crisis
situations in the external environment (primarily
droughts). Desert natural ecosystems of an autono-
mous nature are also marked by varied distinctions
in the internal organization.
13. Man-made changes of natural ecosystems,
have to a greater or lesser degree occurred through-
out the USSR, in some instances the natural ecosystems
have basically retained their natural characteristics,
while in others they have changed completely and
were replaced by the man-made. Simultaneously, the
man-made changes in the natural ecosystems and
their replacement by secondary ones, excessively ex-
ploited for agricultural purposes, first of all are the
result of a basic transformation of the plant cover
during the planting of agricultural crops, the exten-
sive use of pastures and hay cutting for feeding farm
animals, and with the cutting of trees or their inten-
sive exploitation. It is natural that with all of these
forms of actions by man, the internal circulation of
substances in the natural ecosystems is subjected to
varied transformation.
Thus, in the tundra and in a majority of tayga
territories even with extensive man-made changes of
the natural ecosystems the biological circulation of
substances intensifies somewhat, the plant cover and
the animal population increase and the biological
productivity of the territory as a whole increases.
12
-------
In the area of the spread of coniferous-broad-
leafed and broad-leafed forests an original forest-
pasture-field complex of man-made ecosystems was
formed as the result of the transformation of natural
ecosystems, as a rule with significant biological pro-
ductivity and a number of other features of its inter-
nal circulation of substances.
Conversely, in the forest-steppes and steppes, that
is, in the particularly productive natural ecosystems,
the nearly total ploughing of land led to the depletion
of the composition of the vegetative and animal pop-
ulation, and to a disturbance of the natural processes
of the circulation of substances. Therefore, the soils
in the ecosystems under study, began with the exten-
sive utilization, to lose the reserve of biogens accumu-
lated over the centuries, as a result both of the
depletion of land animal population and the constant
exclusion of a large quantity of the mass produced
by the plants from the agricultural-cattle ecosystems.
However, under the conditions of •• intense farming
all of this was neutralized by the introduction of fer-
tilizer into the soil, an improvement in the level of
agrotechnology and the rational methods of crop
rotation. Planted, highly productive ecosystems
which appeared as a result of meadow steppes show
the formation of many new features in the course of
the internal processes and above all in the nature of
the internal circulation. Extensive cattle breeding in
the arid steppes also leads to the depletion of the
natural ecosystems and a drop in their natural bio-
logical productivity, while on the irrigated territories
of the desert the total biological productivity and
primary production increase significantly. On the
basis of natural ecosystems new types of oasis eco-
systems are also formed here.
14. Generally it may be stated that the man-made
ecosystems characterized by a permanent depletion
of substances, including biogens, in the form of agri-
cultural products, cease to be autonomous ecosystems
and in essence become dependent on man, requiring
for the maintenance of the natural productivity, and
even more so for its growth, appropriate compensa-
tion in the form of rich fertilizer and other measures.
The replacement of the natural ecosystems with
the man-made resulted in many other consequences.
Thus, for example, the destruction of a living cover
highly adapted to local conditions frequently leads
to the intensive development of water and wind ero-
sion accompanied by the loss of substances needed
by the plants, beyond the limits of the ecosystem a
disturbance of the water system of the territory, soil
degradation, and so forth.
It follows that man, keeping in mind the need for
prolonged use and maintenance of high productivity
both of natural as well as the creation of man-made
systems, must take it upon himself to carry out
specific ecological functions. This must, however, be
based on a comprehensive knowledge of the entire
dynamic of natural ecosystems, their internal circula-
tion of substances as well as the laws governing the
transformation of natural ecosystems into man-made
ecosystems. This points to the necessity for an all
out effort in studying the physical, chemical, and
biological phenomena taking place in the geograph-
ical landscapes, primarily aimed at a study of the
relationship of the environment and biota in the
ecosystems as well as the internal circulation of sub-
stances in various types of natural and man-made
ecosystems.
13
-------
GLOBAL BALANCE AND MAXIMUM PERMISSIBLE MERCURY
EMISSIONS INTO THE ATMOSPHERE
B. P. ABRAMOVSKIY, YU. A. ANOKHIN, V. A. IONOV, I. M. NAZAROV,
and A. KH. OSTROMOGIL'SKIY
INTRODUCTION
This paper, using mercury as an example, shows
that limitations for man-made emissions into the en-
vironment may arise not as a result of the pollution
of those surroundings into which they are directly
emitted, but as a result of the processes of secondary
pollution of other surroundings. In particular, for
mercury, when there are atmospheric emissions, dan-
gerous situations arise first of all as a result of the
pollution of small bodies of water along the chain,
air-land-water. The effects of this type should be
carefully studied and considered when establishing
standards both for the extent of the concentration
and the extent of the emissions themselves.
Mercury compounds are among the most toxic
pollutants of the environment. Their accumulation in
the biosphere is caused by different types of human
economic activity. The majority of man-made mer-
cury enters the atmosphere as a result of the burning
of coal, oil and municipal garbage, as well as the
activity of enterprises of the chemical industry [1,2].
Until now it was believed that the mercury enter-
ing the atmosphere, given the natural processes and
the emissions of industries, had the same life span
(residence) in the atmosphere. Along these lines, a
materials-balance analysis of mercury was con-
structed, and the dynamics of the possible pollution
of the biosphere were appraised [1,2]. Serious
grounds have forced us to doubt the correctness of
this suggestion. In fact, the great concentration of
aerosol particles, the high chemical activity of a sub-
stance, the increased temperature in the combustion
of enterprises are creating the conditions for the
existence of mercury vapors, which differ signifi-
cantly from the conditions in the clear atmosphere.
A significant portion of the aerosols being emitted
in combustion, by which mercury vapors are being
derived from the atmosphere, have a life span that
is shorter than natural atmospheric aerosols.
In this work on the varying life span (residence)
in the atmosphere of mercury of natural and man-
made origin, the existing patterns of the global
balance of mercury were modified. Here we present
an analysis of the modified model, of the results of
experimental determination and substantiation of the
parameters of the model, and an evaluation of the
effects of the pollution of the biosphere.
In creating the model, the goal was pursued to
obtain a simple calculating scheme that contains the
most important properties of the global cycle of
mercury and, at the same time, includes only those
parameters, the order of magnitude of which is either
known with sufficient reliability, or can be deter-
mined experimentally. It seems that such an ap-
proach in a certain sense is more fruitful than the
calculation of numerous connections without the pos-
sibility of giving the appropriate quantitative evalua-
tions for their description. In this case, by this
method, we succeeded in obtaining evaluations of the
effects of pollution which arise because of the dif-
ferent behavior of natural and anthropogenic mer-
cury. The additional calculation of the local effects
made it possible to evaluate the permissible emis-
sions of man-made mercury into the atmosphere.
DESCRIPTION OF THE MODEL
The model examines two types of sources of the
entrance of mercury into the biosphere: natural —
qnat into the soil and man-made — qant into the
atmosphere. Natural mercury enters as a result of
the processes of weathering when there is a break-up
of the crystal lattice of minerals of rocks and soils.
Man-made mercury enters the atmosphere as a re-
sult of its direct emission, see Figure 1.
Mercury circulates between the atmosphere and
the lithosphere and is taken out of circulation only
as a result of passage into the hydrosphere. The
fate of mercury in the hydrosphere is not examined;
we believe that its passage from the hydrosphere
into the atmosphere and soil within the examined
time intervals (on the order of hundreds of years)
may be omitted. Therefore, the model does not
examine direct emissions of man-made mercury into
the hydrosphere. The model omits a number of
secondary sources, such as volcanoes, owing to their
low intensity [1,2].
14
-------
dQn _- Qa
"df ~ TT
,- ^ - ^ ; (i)
Tnfl 7"nr
Figure 1. Scheme of the circulation of mercury in the at-
mosphere-lithosphere-hydrosphere system.
The mercury in the coarse-dispersed fractions of
emissions of enterprises falls near the enterprises. Its
amount is equal to (1 - K)qant, its time span in the
atmosphere is accepted as being equal to zero (in
practice it is measurable in hours). Mercury vapors
precipitated in the fine-dispersed fraction or having
left the flame, will be dispersed just like natural
mercury with a life span in the atmosphere of ra.
The amount of this mercury, which is equal to qant,
in the emissions of enterprises is determined by the
equipment and increases with the removal of aerosols
from the emissions.
The time for mercury to move from the soil into
the atmosphere rna is accepted as being equal for
man-made and natural mercury, and the time to
move from the soil into the hydrosphere, rnr, is also
considered identical.
Let us introduce the following designations for
variables:
—Qa is the background amount of mercury in the
atmosphere (not including local pollution near
enterprises);
—Qn is the amount of mercury in soils, which par-
ticipates in global circulation;
—Qag* is the amount of anthropogenic mercury in
the soil near enterprises;
—QT is the amount of mercury that has entered the
hydrosphere only through processes in the system
atmosphere-soil without consideration of other
means.
Let us keep in mind that only a part of the back-
ground atmosphheric mercury, which is equal to
fQa, falls onto dry land. For man-made mercury
that falls near enterprises, it can be considered that
it falls on dry land. In these assumptions we will
have the following system of differential equations
which describes the global balance of mercury:
t\ __ *J n _ ^!n
-K)qant — - — -
dQa
+ Q'S'
Tnr
RESULTS OF THE EXPERIMENTS AND
THEIR ANALYSIS
The main task of the experimental verification of
the model was the establishment of the difference in
the behavior of natural and man-made mercury in
the atmosphere and the evaluation of the amount
of mercury in the atmosphere Qa. With this purpose
in mind, airplane studies of the background levels
of the concentrations of mercury vapors were con-
ducted over the European part of the USSR and
Central Asia. The measurements were made at
great distances from man-made sources of mercury,
in order to avoid the influence of local pollution of
the atmosphere. In addition to the measurement of
background concentration, measurements were made
of the emission of mercury vapors by man-made
sources.
The measurements were made with an atomic-
adsorption gas analyzer [3,4], the sensitivity of which
in the airplane variant, owing to the injection of
large volumes of air, was reduced to 10-11g/m. In
order to obtain additional information, parallel meas-
urement was made of the concentration of the short-
lived products of the decomposition of radon.
Considerable attention was devoted to the study of
the high-altitude distribution of mercury vapors in
the atmosphere, which is necessary for an evaluation
of the background content of mercury in the atmos-
phere. The combined data on the high-altitude de-
pendence of mercury vapors and short-lived prod-
ucts of the decomposition of radon, the source of
which are soil and rock in the atmosphere, served
as the basis for determining the life span of mercury
vapors in the atmosphere.
In different regions of the USSR, 1 1 high-altitude
probes in the atmosphere at altitude ranges of 50 to
4000 m were made. The probe was made under
different meteorological conditions. A characteristic
feature of all these measurements was the fact that
the profiles of the high-altitude curves for mercury
vapors and the short-lived products of the decom-
position of radon, which are in a state of equilibrium
with them, practically coincide. One of the diagrams
of the high-altitude dependence for mercury vapors
and the products of the decomposition of radon is
cited in Figure 2. The satisfactory coincidence of the
high-altitude distribution of concentrations indicates,
first of all, that the source of mercury vapors in the
atmosphere, just as that of radon, is the earth's sur-
face, and the direct contribution of local anthropo-
15
-------
10°
8
6
CD
o
-0
OJ
C
O
CO
O
|io-1
o
0)
•° 8
OJ
f 6
o
73
O
O
C
CD
U
c§ -2
10
10
-9
CO
E
_
o
a.
CO
-5 6
C
o
-jo 4
0}
o
c
o
0
10
-11
-1+30
o
0 1000 2000 3000
1000 2000 3000
Altitude of flight h, m
4000
Figure 2. The altitude dependence of the concentration in the atmosphere of mercury vapors ; of the products
of the decomposition of radon ! of mercury vapors, measured simultaneously with the products of the
decomposition of radon .
genie sources is negligibly small. Secondly, this
means that the life span of mercury vapors coincides
with the life span of radon (we will return to this
question below). Regardless of the form of high-
altitude dependence, the concentrations of mercury
at altitudes around 3000 m became very small, prac-
tically equal to zero. The amount of mercury in the
air column from 50 to 4000 m, in the same region
with a change in the form of the high-altitude curve
depending on the meteorological conditions, changed
relatively slightly within the limits of 20 to 30%.
In the altitude range of 0 to 50 m, the altitude
distribution of mercury vapors was not studied. At
the earth's surface, one can observe an increase in
the concentration of mercury vapors [5], but this
does not affect its total amount in the atmospheric
column.
In order to evaluate the background content of
mercury in the atmosphere, apart from the altitude
distribution of mercury, one must know the spatial
variations of the concentration of mercury on the
earth's surface. Such measurements were made on
a sufficiently extensive and representative part of the
territory of the USSR. In Table 1, the average con-
centrations of mercury vapors C for the different
regions are cited for an altitude of 50 m above ground
level. The measurements were made during the
warm part of the year, when there was no snow
cover and under the conditions of intensive atmos-
pheric agitation. Table 1 also indicates the coeffi-
cient of variation, calculated according to the results
of a number of measurements made during flight
over regions that are relatively identical in geological
and soil conditions.
16
-------
TABLE 1. AVERAGE CONTENT OF MERCURY VAPORS C IN THE ATMOSPHERE AT A LEVEL
OF 50 m FROM THE EARTH'S SURFACE
No.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8,
Region and geological
soil conditions
Moscow oblast. Moscow
area basin. Carboniferous
system. Soddy podzolic
soils.
Vitebskaya oblast.
Orshinskiy depression.
Devonian system. Soddy
podzolic soils.
Zhdanovskaya Oblast.
Ukrainian shield.
Micellar calcareous
black earths.
Kishinevskaya oblast.
Declivity of Ukrainian
crystal massif. Neogene
system. Podsolized and
typical black earths.
Pensenskaya and Sara-
tovskaya oblasts. Volgo-
Ural anteclise. Cretaceous
and Neogene deposits.
Mack earths.
Saratovskaya and north-
ern Volgogradskaya
oblasts. Volgo-Ural
anteclise. Cretaceous,
Neogene and Quaternary
deposits. Dark chestnut
soils.
Southern Volgogradskaya
and Astrakhanskaya
oblasts. Caspian region
syneclise. Quaternary
deposits. Brown desert-
steppe solonetzic soils.
Kokandskaya and Naman-
ganskaya oblasts. Tyan'-
Shan' variscites.
Paleozoic and Mesozoic
deposits. Gray desert soils.
10-»g/m3, Coefficient of
error, % variation, %
0.60(7%) 15
0.60(7%) 15
1.0 (5%) 15
1.0 (10%) 20
0.84(16%) 30
0.70(5%) 6
0.67 (20%) 30
0.60(10%) 15
No. Region and geological 10-°g/ms, Coefficient of
soil conditions error, % variation, %
9. Ferganskaya and 0.75 (10%) 20
Andizhanskaya oblasts.
Tyan'-Shan' variscites.
Paleozoic and Mesozoic
deposits. Meadow-gray
desert soils.
10. Yuzhnyy Ustyurt. 0.54(17%) 25
Zaunguzskiye Kara-Kumy.
Turanskaya platform.
Neogene and Quaternary
deposits. Aeolian sands.
11. Severnyye Kyzyl-Kumy. 0.45(18%) 20
Turanskaya platform.
Neogene and Quaternary
deposits. Aeolian sands.
12. Karshinskaya steppe. 0.36(40%) 25
Turanskaya platform.
Paleogene and Quaternary
deposits. Gray-brown
desert soils.
13. Khorezmskaya oblast. 0.72(14%) 17
Turanskaya platform.
Quaternary system.
Meadow-gray desert soils.
14. Rabat-Chorku-Batken 6.6 (45%) 70
valley. Alayskiy chain.
Silurian, Devonian and
Carboniferous deposits.
Mountain gray desert
soils.
15. Zaravshanskiy chain. 1.2 (50%) 100
Koktash plateau. Silurian
and Carboniferous
deposits. Mountain-
cinnamonic soils.
The territory studied has various geographical-
landscape zones and geochemical provinces and
therefore is sufficiently representative, in global
scale, for a description of the distribution of mercury
above the continent.
The average concentrations of mercury vapors,
for the various regions, lies within the limits (0.4 to
7)»10-9g/m3. The minimum concentrations fall to
the regions with a massive covering of loose deposits.
Concentrations on an order of l«10~9g/m3 were ob-
served only in local sectors in the region of the
Turkestan-Alaysk mercury belt. On the whole, the
area distribution of mercury vapors is closely con-
nected with the concentration of mercury in soils and
rocks, and is consistent with the surface measure-
ments made in some of the regions being examined
[3,4].
In order to calculate the time that the mercury
remained in the atmosphere, we took advantage of
the fact that the profiles of the altitude distribution of
vapors of the concentration of mercury and the
short-lived products of the decomposition of radon
coincide when measured under different meteorolog-
ical conditions. Then, by using, for example, the
model of transference as a result of turbulent dif-
fusion and considering that the rate of elimination of
mercury is proportional to the magnitude of its con-
centration CHg, it is possible to obtain that:
(2)
-Hg
z = oo =0,
17
-------
where K7j is the coefficient of turbulent agitation,
generally speaking, which depends on the altitude
and Tvap is the life span of the mercury vapors in the
atmosphere.
Equations (2) will also describe the altitude dis-
tribution in the atmosphere of concentration of radon
Crad with a life span of rrad *=» 5.5 days, which is
determined only by radioactive decomposition. The
coincidence of the profiles of the altitude distribution
of mercury and radon, which is observed in different
situations, means that the functions CHg and Crad are
linearly dependent, which is not difficult to show, is
correct only under the condition
Tyap = Trad- (3)
Condition equation (3) is independent not only of
the specific value of the coefficient of the turbulent
agitation Kz in equation (2), but even of the adopted
model. It is important only that the model being
used is linear with respect to the concentration (CHg).
Therefore, we believe that it has been experimentally
proven that Tvap —5 days.
According to existing notions the basic mechanism
for the elimination of mercury vapors from the at-
mosphere is their deposition on aerosol particles,
possibly with the simultaneous occurrence in a num-
ber of cases of chemical reactions, with the subse-
quent precipitation of the aerosol particles. Thus,
given the established equilibrium between the vapor
and aerosol phases, the life span of mercury ra is
equal to
Ta = Tyap + Taer (4)
and
IT1P =
(5)
where Cvap and Caer are the concentrations of mercury
in the vapor and aerosol phases respectively.
Let us note that for continental areas the life span
of the aerosols that capture the products of the de-
composition of radon fluctuates from 1 to 40 days,
and values on the order of 5 days are quite normal
[6]. This likewise corresponds to existing notions, as
follows from [3,4], that given the established equilib-
rium, the concentrations of mercury in the vapor and
aerosol phases do not differ greatly [7]. Thus, the life
span of mercury in the atmosphere ra can be calcu-
lated as ra = 10 days. As is shown by the analysis
of the data of Table 1 and the altitude distributions
of mercury vapors, given that Caer «= Cvap, the aver-
age amount of mercury in the air column above con-
tinental areas is equal to 1.5 ± 0.5 g/km2. This
evaluation and the value we obtained for the life span
of mercury in the atmosphere above continental
areas are quite consistent with the available data on
the precipitation of mercury for continental regions.
According to [2,8] it is 0.2 ±0.1 g/km2 • day; ac-
cording to our calculations it should be 0.15 g/km2
•day.
Now it is possible also to calculate the amount of
mercury in the atmosphere, which is contained above
continental areas, «= 260 t. The concentrations of
mercury above the ocean according to the little data
we have and according to [2] are almost on an order
of a magnitude less than the concentrations above
dry land, see Table 2. Taking this into consideration
TABLE 2. CONCENTRATIONS OF MERCURY
VAPORS IN THE REGION OF SEA BASINS
OF THE USSR
No.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Concen-
tration of
Location of Altitude of Hg vapors, Weather
measurement flight (m) 10-I0g/m3 conditions
Caspian Sea (central 200
part)
Caspian Sea (central 200
part)
Barents Sea (Perchor- 200
skaya Guba)
Karsk Sea (Baydarats- 200
kaya Guba)
Karsk Sea (Baydarats- 1500
kaya Guba)
Karsk Sea (Obskaya 2700
Guba)
Karsk Sea (Pyasinskiy 200
Zaliv)
2.0 SE,
6m /sec,
15°C
2.5 NNE,
5m /sec,
20 °C
0.3 SSW,
5m/sec,
-10°C
0.3 ENE,
5m/sec,
-12°C
1.0 NNE,
5m /sec,
-10°C
0.3 WNW,
7m/sec,
-15°C
0.15 ENE,
7m /sec,
-8°C
the total amount of mercury in the atmosphere can
be calculated as Qa «* 350 t. This value is approxi-
mately 30 times less than the value obtained in [2],
which in our opinion is erroneous. It should be noted
that, although the life span of mercury in the atmos-
phere above continental and ocean areas can differ,
this difference should not have a strong effect on the
time that the mercury remains in the atmosphere as
a whole, since the concentrations of mercury above
the ocean drop significantly and the total amount of
mercury precipitating above the ocean is very small.
The measurements of the mercury vapors in the
emissions of thermal electric power stations and
chemical and metallurgical industrial complexes
showed that the amount of mercury vapors in the
profile of the flame Q decreases with the separation r
from the source by the exponential law:
Q = Qo • e-VVrvap (6)
where V is the average wind velocity, and Tvap is the
life span of mercury vapors.
18
-------
The processing of the experimental measurements
in the profiles of the combustion of a copper-smelting
metallurgical works gave the value
30 min.
For other enterprises the life span of mercury vapors
in combustion was 10 to 40 min. As was mentioned,
the life span of aerosols in the emissions of enter-
prises is significantly higher and is a magnitude on
the order of several hours. Consequently, it also
determines the time for the elimination of man-made
mercury from the atmosphere.
The obained experimental data confirm the need
to consider in the global balance model the differ-
ences between the behavior of natural and man-made
mercury, which was calculated in the system of equa-
tions (1).
DETERMINATION OF THE PARAMETERS
OF THE MODEL
To determine the other parameters of the model
that belong to system (1), several quite realistic sug-
gestions were made.
—In the absence of man-made sources, system (1)
would be in a state of equilibrium, i.e.,
QO
t V'a
f —
Tna
(7)
(8)
where Q°a iand Q°n are the background content of
mercury in the atmosphere and soil respectively, in
the absence of man-made sources;
—Considering that the density of man-made
sources has practically no influence on the vertical
distribution and concentration of mercury vapors in
airplane studies, see Table 1, it was assumed that
of the 3.5*102 t of mercury in the atmosphere, only
50 t were caused by man-made emissions, i.e.,
Qa— 3 • 102 t. This proportion does not contradict
the data on mercury pollution in glaciers. Let us
indicate that according to the data of various authors
the proportion of man-made mercury in the atmos-
phere fluctuates from 10% to 80%.
—The total amount of mercury in the soil is taken
to be equal to Q°. This assumption is confirmed
directly by the degree of pollution of glaciers.
—The value of f was taken to be 0.8. Considered
here was the nonuniform distribution of dry land,
which is the source of mercury in the northern and
southern hemispheres, and the complicated exchange
of air masses between the hemispheres. Value cal-
culations were also made with f = 0.6.
From equations (7) and (8) it follows that
qnat =— "
Tnr
Let us calculate the first component in (9), after
which we will be able to calculate qnat.
Let the entrance of mercury into some body of
water occur by its precipitation from the atmosphere
and runoff from a catchment basin. Then the dy-
namics of the content of mercury in the body of
water Qw is described by the equation:
dQ»
dt
Si
i rn
(10)
where the following designations are assumed:
— Ss is the area of the surface of the body of
water;
— Sc is the area of the catchment of the body of
water;
— Qw is the amount of mercury in the body of
water;
— Si is the area of dry land (1.7 • 108 km2);
— QW/TW is the discharge of mercury from the
body of water.
The example of Lake Baykal was examined. Ow-
ing to its great depth it is possible to assume that the
decrease in the amount of deposited mercury in the
water results basically through discharge from the
Angara, i.e., Tw can be assumed to equal the time for
complete water exchange, i.e., Tw = 400 liters.
The background concentrations of mercury in
Baykal are calculated to be 3 • 10~7 g/liter*, conse-
quently, considering that the volume of water in
Baykal is 23 • 103 km3, we obtain the value of the
background content of mercury in Baykal, Qw = 7 •
103 1. In the absence of man-made sources the inflow
and outflow of mercury should be counterbalanced,
therefore
Qn _ FQJ Qa°f SJ S, .
— ~P?~~ — r c~ c~ >
Tnr [ 1 w Ta J>1 J !SC
For Baykal:
and
S8 = 3.1 • 10* km2
Sc = 5.6 • 105 km2.
(9)
Hence we obtain the value:
— ^ 4.8 • 103 t/year.
Tnr
Using (11) we obtain qnat = 6.8 • 103 t/year.
As in work [1], let us take the value of the content
of mercury in the soil Qn = 4.2-106 t. Then it is
possible from (9,14) to obtain values for rnr and
Tna, and namely 900 and 420 years respectively.
Let us cite several other considerations that indi-
cate that the determined values of the model para-
meters do not contradict the existing notions of the
processes in question.
Using our calculations, the natural entrance of
mercury into the atmosphere is Q?/Tna=104 t/year.
*The personal communication of V.A. Vetrov.
19
-------
The entrance of mercury into the atmosphere as a
result of the processes of weathering and evaporation
from the soil is calculated in different ways — from
230 to 250 t/year [1] to 2.5 + 15-104 t/year [11.
It seems to us that a figure on the order of several
tens of thousands of tons per year is too high, since,
given the time we established for elimination, this
amount of mercury would not successfully be elimi-
nated from the atmosphere.
From studies on the behavior of global fallouts of
radioactive elements it was established that the rate
at which they are washed from the soil into catch-
ment areas is determined by the following times of
elimination [9]: for readily soluble Sr90, rnr = 200
years; for poorly soluble Cs137, Tnr=1000 years.
Consequently, the order of the obtained value Tnr
for mercury is very consistent with these data.
Table 3 cites the values of the parameters of the
model, which we will use later on.
TABLE 3. PARAMETERS OF THE MODEL
No. Name
Designation
Accepted
value
1. Time for elimination of
mercury from atmosphere
2. Time for elimination of
mercury from soil into
atmosphere
3. Time for elimination of
mercury from soil into
hydrosphere
4. Natural sources of
mercury in soil
5. Proportion of mercury
precipitated on dry land
6. Proportion of anthropo-
genic mercury included
immediately in global
circulation
7. Content of mercury in the
atmosphere in the absence
of anthropogenic sources
8. Content of mercury in
the soil in the absence of
anthropogenic sources
TUB
K
Q°a
QS
3*10-2
4.1Q2
9-102
7-103
0.8
0 and 1
3-102
4.10"
FACTORS LIMITING THE EMISSIONS OF
MERCURY INTO THE ATMOSPHERE
The dynamics of environmental pollution depend
heavily on the change in the capacity of the man-
made source over time. Figure 3 shows, as an illus-
tration, the curves of the accumulation of mercury
in the soil and the air given
qnat(t) = 1870 + 960 • .e°-°3 I*-1900' (12)
where the time is 1900
-------
may create the illusion of a favorable situation con-
cerning emissions of mercury into the atmosphere.
However, in this case the danger of the global pol-
lution of mercury is that, being washed from the
soil, mercury pollutes natural waters and, by accu-
mulation, can exceed the permissible concentrations.
The background content of mercury in the surface
waters of dry land is about 1 • 10~71/1. This amount
is 50 times less than the maximum permissible con-
centration accepted in the USSR. This mercury
enters as a result of being washed from the soils, i.e.,
given an increase in the content of mercury in the
soil on the area of a catchment of 50 times, the con-
centration of mercury in the water will reach an im-
permissible amount. Such an increase in the amount
of mercury on a global scale, as follows from (13)
to (15), is achieved when qant ±* (7 4- 10) • 10*
t/year, which exceeds by 7 -=- 10 times the present
emissions 10* t/year [1,2]. This calculation shows
that emissions of mercury into the Atmosphere may
become a very dangerous factor.
On local scales such situations may be forming
even at the present. Since in the established regime
the part being washed from the soils is Tna/(Tna +
Tnr) from the annual precipitations, in all nearly
30% is washed away. With a density of precipita-
tion of 1 • 1CH t/year • km2, the annual wash-off
would be 3 • 10~2 t/year • km2. With the amount of
precipitates of 500 mm, the average concentration
in surface waters will significantly exceed the maxi-
mum permissible concentration (by up to 30 times).
The cited value is most likely an underestimate.
Thus, for global radioactive fallouts it is known [5]
that the rate of wash-off in the first year is on the
order of about a magnitude greater than in subse-
quent years. There are serious grounds to believe
that a similar effect will occur for precipitations of
mercury as well.
The subsequent conversions of mercury and its
compounds into the very toxic methyl form [10]
aggravates this situation. However, this question
pertains to the behavior of mercury hi the hydro-
sphere, which is not examined by this model.
CONCLUSIONS
The studies conducted using mercury as an exam-
ple indicate the need to consider the interaction of
different environmental media when establishing
standards for the concentration and emissions of
dangerous substances. From the data obtained it
follows that the emissions of mercury into the at-
mosphere may create dangerous pollution of soils
and bodies of water, at the same time that the pol-
lution of the atmosphere itself will remain at a per-
missible level.
The features of the mercury balance: the inclu-
sion of local precipitations in the global cycle and
the possible impermissible pollution of the waters of
dry land through the atmosphere, require a limita-
tion of the emissions of mercury on a global scale.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors express their gratitude to V. A.
Vetrov for the presented data on the average con-
centration of mercury in Lake Baykal.
REFERENCES
1. Meadows, D. L. and D. Meadows, Toward Global
Equilibrium, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1973.
2. Kothny, E. L., 'Trace Elements in the Environment,"
The Three-Phase Equilibrium of Mercury in Nature,
American Chemical Society, Washington, 1973.
3. Fursov, V. Z., I. I. Stepanov, Prospecting and Protec-
tion of Mineral Resources, No. 10 (1971), p. 38.
4. Fursov, V. Z., DAN [Proceedings of the USSR Acad-
emy of Sciences], 194, No. 6 (1970), p. 1421.
5. Johnson, D. L., R. S. Bramen, Environmental Science,
Technology, Vol. 8, No. 12 (November 1974), p. 1003.
6. Izrael, Kh., A. Krebs (eds.), Atomic Geophysics, Mos-
cow, Izdatel'stvo Mir, 1964.
7. Bogen, J., Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 7, No. 11
(1973), p. 1117.
8. Lockerotz, W., Water, Air and Soil Pollution, Vol. 3,
No. 2 (1974), p. 179.
9. Report of the United Nations Science Committee on
the Effect of Atomic Radiation, II, A/5216 (1962).
10. Kommoner, B., The Closing Circle, Leningrad, 1974.
21
-------
HUMAN RISK ASSESSMENT BASED ON LABORATORY
ANIMAL STUDIES
D. G. HOEL
Possibly the greatest uncertainty associated with
environmental decision making involves a process
referred to as human risk assessment. This pro-
cedure in its simplest form is concerned with the
prediction of the effects on human health by a con-
stant exposure level of a single environmental agent
which typically will be a chemical compound. The
complexities associated with varying exposure dis-
tributions and possible synergistic activity between
agents are not really understood and most often
ignored. Nevertheless, if reliable methods for pre-
dicting health effects at given exposure levels due
to a single agent were available, then the environ-
mental decision process will have made consider-
able progress.
Among possible adverse health effects, carcino-
genesis has received the most attention from a
human risk analysis standpoint. The reasons for
this no doubt vary from the psychological to the
relative ease in interpreting qualitatively from lab-
oratory rodent studies to man. Therefore we will
discuss primarily methods of risk assessment asso-
ciated with carcinogenesis. The techniques, how-
ever, will often equally apply to other irreversible
processes such as teratogenesis and mutagenesis for
which the relationships of experimental laboratory
findings to man's health are not as clear.
The risk assessment process ideally will involve
a mix of both human data and laboratory findings.
The laboratory data are clearly essential in two
situations: (1) For those cases in which a new
product or a greatly increased exposure of an old
product is proposed (e.g., NTA as a detergent ad-
ditive) and for which no human data are readily
available. (2) For those situations in which the
human data are either of low quality or extremely
difficult to interpret (e.g., organics in drinking
water). These situations are not meant to minimize
the value of human data in risk assessment. There
have been many examples where epidemiological
methods have identified human carcinogens such as
angiosarcomas and mesotheliomas associated with
environmental exposures to vinyl chloride and as-
bestos, respectively. Recently the NCI has pro-
duced county cancer incidence maps by cancer type
which should give good leads to environmental "hot
spots." Possibly the most important need for human
data is with the testing and validation of animal
models which are intended to predict the human
response.
Finally, it has been estimated that the majority
of human cancers are due to environmental agents.
If so, the needs of human risk assessment in car-
cinogenesis come basically down to (1) the identi-
fication of those environmental components which
are human carcinogens and (2) the determination
of the degree of carcinogenicity and the identifica-
tion of susceptible subgroups in the population.
DETECTION
The National Cancer Institute has a major bio-
assay program for the detection of chemical car-
cinogens. This program has upwards of 500
chemicals under test in both rats and mice, each
at two dose levels. Using both sexes, eight treat-
ment groups of 50 animals apiece are studied. Since
lifetime chronic testing is employed, the screening
for each individual compound is expensive in terms
of both time and money.
From a risk assessment viewpoint there are sev-
eral difficulties with using data derived from stan-
dardized protocols which are designed primarily for
detection purposes. First of all, priorities based
upon environmental considerations are developed
for compound selection. However, environmental
considerations should also influence the size of
particular assays. This relates to the ability of the
assay to detect with statistical confidence a given
increase in carcinogenic activity over background
levels. Clearly not all the compounds under test
are of equal environmental concern. A second
need of risk estimation methods is for dose re-
sponse data. Often the results of detection assays
which involve only one or two dose levels are of
little use in estimating low dose responses. How-
ever, without some prior knowledge concerning the
dose response curve, efficient protocols can not be
produced to yield the required dose response data.
22
-------
More recently, consideration has been given to
the use of microbial mutagenic tests as presumptive
tests for carcinogenesis. In particular, Ames et al.
[1] has developed various tester strains of Salmo-
nella which combined with liver microsomes produce
results highly correlated with those found by
chronic animal studies. Because of its speed and
low cost, this bacterial assay may prove to be an
effective prescreen for the chronic carcinogenesis
assay. Denote by « and ft the prescreen's type I
and type II errors (i.e., false positive and false
negative) and let p be the incidence of true posi-
tives in a collection of compounds requiring car-
cinogenic determinations. Then the following table
indicates the increased testing efficiency one would
obtain by applying the life-time animal assay to
only those compounds which had previously been
prescreened positive.
TABLE 1. EFFICIENCY VALUES REPRESENTED BY
THE RATIO OF THE PROBABILITY OF DETECTION
GIVEN PRESCREENED POSITIVE TO THE PROBA-
BILITY OF DETECTION GIVEN NO PRESCREENING.
p = 0.1
0.01
/3 0.05
0.20
0.01
9.2
9.1
9.0
a
0.05
6.9
6.8
6.4
0.20
3.5
3.5
3.1
p = 0.01
p
0.01
0.05
0.20
0.01
50
49
45
a
0.05
17
16
14
0.20
4.8
4.6
3.9
Upon examination of the tabled efficiencies one
may conclude that if the prescreen procedure has
reasonable error probabilities and if testing resources
are limited in relation to the number of compounds
requiring testing, then substantial savings can be
made by applying prescreens.
The correlation between the microbial mutagenesis
assay and the animal carcinogenesis assay has so far
been a qualitative one. The prospects of a quantita-
tive relationship are unknown at this point. Therefore
the application of the results of a microbial assay to
risk assessment and quantitative extrapolation to
man remains in doubt.
EXTRAPOLATION
The second phase of risk assessment deals with
the quantitative aspects of environmental agents.
Given that a compound has been determined to be
carcinogenic and that it is impractical to totally
remove it from the environment, a determination
must be made as to the possible effects on human
health. Assuming that absolute safety cannot be
assured with the presence of an established car-
cinogen, quantitative estimates of risk are needed.
Currently, risk estimates are obtained statistically
by a two step process [2], [3]. First, using a par-
ticular mathematical function to represent the rela-
tionship between dose and response, the animal
effects are estimated for a predetermined level of
exposure which is typically much lower than the
experimental dose levels. Conversely, an exposure
level may be estimated from a predetermined effect
level. The second step of the risk estimation in-
volves the extrapolation of the estimated low dose
results from the animal data to man. This effort has
generally been one of predicting the median man
response from that of the median mouse without
much attention being paid to the heterogeniety of
human population with its possible susceptible sub-
groups.
Two types of dose models have been used to
describe the single risk effects of cancer. The first
type functionally relates cumulative tumor incidence
with age and is often referred to as a time-to-tumor
model. The two mathematical functions which have
received the most attention in time-to-tumor de-
scriptions are the log normal and the Weibull [4],
[5]. To bring dose effects into the picture, particular
parameters in the models are functionally related to
dose. Recently, the Doll and Hill data on British
physicians and their cigarette smoking histories have
been analyzed by both models [6]. The available
data seemed to fit the log normal and the Weibull
equally well.
The second type of model simply relates dose
with total incidence and a number of mathematical
functions have been applied. With both types of
models there usually are not sufficient data to deter-
mine which model best describes the data. However,
when one extrapolates to the very low dose levels
there are often relatively large differences in the
estimated responses. For example, if one were in-
terested in an incidence of 10~8 over the background
incidence, then there may be a factor of 1000 in the
estimated doses which corresponds to this incidence.
In order to avoid the difficulties with choosing a
mathematical function for the dose response curve,
Mantel and co-workers [7], [8] have suggested that
extrapolation be based upon an upper bound to the
curve. For example, if the lower portion of the dose
response curve is concave upwards then a linear
extrapolation would provide an upper bound. Using
a conservative upper bound approach unfortunately
may produce estimated dose levels which are un-
realistically low. The quantitative differences of
incorporating such an approach have not been
investigated.
23
-------
Recently the stochastic models described by Armi-
tage and Doll [9] have been studied from a low
dose extrapolation viewpoint [10]. These models
describe the carcinogenic process as consisting of
an initiation period which is composed of a finite
number of stages each of which has a rate approxi-
mately linear in dose. The initiation period is then
followed by a random induction time which is as-
sumed to be independent of dose. Thus the incidence
rate at time t with dose d and induction period F
can be expressed as
This incidence rate is approximately linear as the
dose d becomes small; an obvious question is how
close is the incidence rate to linearity at low dose
levels. The linear approximation to I(d,t) at d = 0 is
iL(d,t)=i(o,t)+dr(o)t). (2)
Define dp as that dose which yields a p increase over
the background rate, that is
I(dp)t) = (l+p)I(o,t). (3)
The closeness to linearity can then be represented
by the ratio r(p,k) of I(d,t) to its linear approxima-
tion IL(d,t) at the dose dp which is
I(dp,t)
r(p,k) =
Ii/dp,t)
and can be shown to have the upper bound
1+P
l+kKl+p)1/"-!].
This bound depends only on the number of stages
of the initiation period k and the amount of increase
over background p. Selected values are
p
k
0.1
1
2
5
oo
1
1.02
1.04
1.05
1
1
1.21
1.35
1.44
10
1
2.16
3.25
4.17
and from these values one may conclude that the
percentage increase over the background level is the
determining factor and for small increases such as
10% (p = 0.1) the incidence rate is essentially linear.
Currently statisticians are involved with directly esti-
mating the low dose response assuming the model
given by (1). Also they are concerned with obtaining
error estimates associated with the response esti-
mates.
After some type of low dose estimate has been
obtained, the next step is to extrapolate the estimate
to man. Usually not much information on species
differences is available and the conversion to man
is made without pharmacological input. Hopefully
in the future species differences in metabolism, dis-
tribution, etc. can be estimated from appropriate
pharmacokinetic models. In the meantime informa-
tion is being studied on species differences in car-
cinogenesis response so that at least some feeling
as to what order of magnitude differences may exist.
In conclusion the problem of risk assessment in
carcinogenesis can make modest advances using sta-
tistical methodologies. However, until there is a
better understanding of the biological mechanisms
involved the risk estimates will be fairly crude.
REFERENCES
1. Ames, B. N., Durston, W. E., Yamasaki, E. and Lee,
F. D. (1973). Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 70, 2281-2285.
2. Hoel, D. G., Gaylor, D. W., Kirschstein, R. L., Saf-
fiotti, U. and Schneiderman, M. A. (1975). J. Tox.
Envir. Health (in press).
3. Mantel, N. and Schneiderman, M. (1975) Cancer Re-
search 35, 1379-1386.
4. Albert, R. E. and Altshuler, B. (1973). In Ballou, J. E.
et al. (Eds): Radionuclide Carcinogenesis, AEC Sym-
posium Series, CONF-72050, Springfield, Va., NTIS,
233-253.
5. Peto, R., Lee, P. N. and Paige, W. S. (1972). Br. J.
Cancer 26, 258-261.
6. Whittemore, A. and ALtshuler, B. (1975). Lung can-
cer incidence in cigarette smokers: further analysis of
Doll and Hill's data for British physicians (unpublished
manuscript).
7. Mantel, N. and Bryan, W. (1961) J. Natl. Cancer Inst.
27, 455-470.
8. Mantel, N., Bohidar, N., Brown, C., Ciminera, J. and
Tukey, J. (1975). Cancer Research.
9. Armitage, P. and Doll, R. (1961). Proc. 4th Berkeley
Sym. Math. Statist. Prob. Univ. Calif. Press. Vol. 4,
19-38.
10. Crump, K. S., Hoel, D. G., Langley, C. H. and Peto,
R. (1975). Fundamental carcinogenic processes and
their implications for low dose risk assessment (un-
published manuscript).
24
-------
ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS AND BEHAVIOR: RESPONSE
CAPABILITIES OF MARINE FISHES
BORI L. OLLA and ANNE L. STUDHOLME
The search for sensitive and ecologically pertinent
measures of pollutant effects on aquatic organisms
has stimulated research in a variety of disciplines
including animal behavior. Recent work has shown
that knowledge of the life habits and requirements
of an organism may be used in a variety of ways to
assess and predict the effects of contaminants in
marine and estuarine ecosystems (f6r examples, see
Olla [1]. Prior to any contaminant experiments in
the laboratory, understanding of the organism's nor-
mal behavioral repertoire, including its scope of re-
sponse to natural stresses, may form a sound basis
for speculation on its survival potential to man-
induced stress. While the organism itself may be
able to survive or remain unaffected by a specific
contaminant, disruption of components within the
ecosystem on which it is dependent (e.g., shelter,
food resources) may indirectly reduce its survival
capability.
For laboratory studies, baselines may be estab-
lished using selected behaviors which play an identi-
fiable role in the life habits of the animal. However,
the efficacy of the experimental design will depend
on the degree to which these behaviors transcend
field and laboratory, and are separate and distinct
from those induced by the laboratory environment.
Departures from these norms will indicate contami-
nant effects with the results of these studies often
directly related to the survival capabilities of the
individual or population in the natural environment.
However, the confidence with which such extra-
polations can be made will depend on the knowl-
edge of normal and the careful integration of
laboratory and field results.
Studies to define normal behavior in situ may be
carried out either by direct observations with the use
of mask and snorkel, SCUBA, viewing boxes and
submersibles (mobile and fixed units) or indirectly
with remote sensing devices such as underwater
television, sonar and acoustic tags [1]. Habits can
also be inferred indirectly from commercial and
sport catches, stomach contents and various samp-
ling techniques primarily used for scientific assess-
ment of populations. All of these procedures con-
tribute information on spatial distributions, activity
patterns, daily and seasonal shifts in abundance,
feeding and food habits, reproduction, territoriality
and other habits and requirements which can be used
in the formulation and design of laboratory experi-
ments that are ecologically relevant.
Our philosophy and method of approach of using
changes in behavior to measure stress on aquatic
organisms can best be illustrated by examples taken
from our previously published work. The studies
were aimed at furthering our understanding of the
comparative aspects of the behavioral response to
temperature in selected marine fishes. In this paper,
we will limit our discussion to two pelagic species,
bluefish, Pomatomus saltatrix, and Atlantic mackerel,
Scomber scotnbrus, and one demersal species, tautog,
Tautoga onitis.
We chose temperature as the stress stimulus for
our initial studies for two main reasons: 1) it repre-
sented a current as well as a future problem for a
small but significant number of marine ecosystems
being subjected to heated effluents from electrical
generating plants, and 2) the design of almost any
study on contaminant effects requires consideration
of temperature as a primary experimental variable
because of the obvious short and long term fluctua-
tions of this parameter in estuarine and inshore
marine zones.
Although both pelagic species are quite different
taxonomically as well as in the specifics of their life
habits, there are, nevertheless, similarities in the way
in which they are related to the environment. Both
species occupy the upper pelagic zone, travel in
schools, and are seasonal migrants. Seasonal move-
ments of these fish appear to be related to changing
photoperiod, while their location at a particular time
is closely correlated with temperature.
We conducted laboratory studies on each species
separately, using small groups of adult fish held
under controlled conditions in a 121-kiloliter aquar-
ium [2]. Water quality was maintained primarily by
recirculating the water through a filtrant of sand,
gravel and crushed oyster shell. Water temperature
was controlled indirectly by room temperature and
25
-------
by the addition of water from a well-point located
in Sandy Hook Bay. A specialized lighting system
simulated diurnal changes in light intensity and dup-
licated natural seasonal changes in photoperiod.
Both the bluefish and Atlantic mackerel possessed
a clearly defined diurnal rhythm of activity although
they swam continuously day and night [3,4]. Con-
tinuous swimming in Atlantic mackerel was not so
surprising since they lack any hydrostatic organ,
making swimming obligatory to maintain their posi-
tion in the water column. The bluefish, although
possessing such an organ, also swam continuously,
but at much lower speeds and with a higher degree
of variability, especially at night. Both species gen-
erally swam around the tank in a school, although
the bluefish were more variable in this activity
especially at night.
The introduction of live food (small bait fish of
various species for bluefish; grass shrimp for Atlantic
mackerel) caused an almost immediate breakdown
of schooling with the fish feeding more or less as
individuals (for bluefish, see Olla, Katz & Studholme
[5]; for Atlantic mackerel, Olla, personal observa-
tion). As would be expected for schooling animals
inhabiting the upper pelagic zone where light levels
are relatively high, the fish were highly visually
oriented, using vision as a primary modality for
feeding.
While the introduction of food would cause a
breakdown in the integrity of the school, the intro-
duction of a "fright" stimulus had the opposite effect.
Stimuli such as a sudden flash of light, especially at
night, a splash at the surface, or the sudden appear-
ance of an observer above the aquarium would
cause an increase in cohesion and speed. At times,
the initial response to a startle stimulus would be for
100
80
60
40
CO
2
CJ
Q
LU
LU
Q_
V)
CO
20
60
40
20
_ A
I I I I I I I I I I I l I I I I
15
20
25
30
35
10 15
TEMPERATURE °C
20
25
Figure 1. Activity recorded during low- and high-temperature experiments for (A) adult bluefish and (B) adult Atlantic
mackerel. Points represent the high and low mean swimming speeds for 4- or 5-day periods at the mean
temperature for each period. Relation between activity and temperature is indicated by a median curve (after
Reference 4).
26
-------
the animals to separate, followed within several sec-
onds by regrouping, with the fish significantly closer
than before the introduction of the startle stimulus.
The fish were highly responsive to any altering stimu-
lus both day and night with avoidance being mani-
fested by increased speed and reduced interfish
distance.
Initial acclimation levels for both species (adult
bluefish, 19.9°C; juvenile bluefish, 20.0°C; and At-
lantic mackerel, 13.3°C) were based on correlations
between temperature and distribution. For bluefish,
peak abundance off the eastern coast of North Amer-
ica appears to be about 18-20°C (Walford, unpub-
lished) with inshore appearances in the spring along
the Middle Atlantic and New England regions occur-
ring as temperatures reached 12-15°C and departures
in the fall at 13-15°C [6]. Limits for distribution of
Atlantic mackerel along this coast are from about
7-8°C [7] up to approximately 18-20°C [8] with
12-14°C cited by Dannevig [9] as the optimal range
for Scomber scombrus in the eastern North Atlantic.
The response of both species to gradual increases
in temperature (0.02°C/h) from these acclimation
levels was an increase in speed (Figures la, b, 2) and
a decrease in fish-to-fish distance [10,4]. As tem-
peratures reached stress levels, the daily rhythmic
pattern was no longer evident as the fish schooled
at high speed both day and night. Juvenile bluefish,
in separate experiments, responsed similarly (Figures
2, 3; [4]) even though the rate of rise was more rapid
(mean rate 1.38°C/h). Maximum cruising speeds
were reached by juvenile bluefish at 32-33°C and by
Atlantic mackerel at 20-22°C, several degrees below
lethal levels.
The response of these two species to increasing
temperatures, based on even the most rudimentary
physiological interpretation, was not surprising. How-
ever, the responses of the adult fish to decreases in
temperature from similar acclimation levels, 19.5°C
for bluefish, 7.9°C for Atlantic mackerel [10,4],
were most interesting, if not surprising. A decrease
in temperature (mean rate 0.013-0.03 °C/h) resulted
in an increase in speed similar to that observed in
response to a temperature increase (Figures la, b, 2).
As they had at high stressful temperatures, adult
Atlantic mackerel reached maximal cruising speeds
before temperature reached lower lethal levels, Fig-
ure Ib.
80
60
40
20
PELAGIC FISH
MEAN SWIMMING TIME (CM/S)
DEMERSAL FISH
MEAN DAYTIME ACTIVITY (%)
TEMPERATURE
HIGH
NORMAL
LOW
ADULT
MACKEREL
ADULT
BLUEFISH
JUVENILE
BLUEFISH
ADULT
TAUTOG
YOUNG
TAUTOG
Figure 2. Comparison of activity at normal and stress temperatures for adult Atlantic mackerel; adult and juvenile
bluefish; adult and young tautog (after Reference 4).
27
-------
40
w
S
u
Q30
D_
in
20
V)
i i i
21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
TEMPERATURE CC
Figure 3. Mean swimming speeds of four groups of juve-
nile bluefish during temperature rise (after Ref-
erence 4).
Although the response to low temperature might
be oposite to what would normally be expected, the
distribution of these animals in nature is so obviously
correlated with temperature that our laboratory find-
ings simply confirmed that temperature is an im-
portant parameter influencing their distribution.
These pelagic species (it remains to be investigated
in other marine pelagics) have the capability of ac-
tively avoiding or selecting certain thermal regimes.
The data indicate that the temperatures avoided or
"preferred" were not specific, but rather fell within
a range dependent on the specific environmental
requirements of each species.
The similarity in response to both increasing and
decreasing temperatures by species with similar nor-
mal patterns of behavior reflects what has been
termed behavioral thermoregulation ([11,12], for
examples and discussion of directed movements in
response to temperature). It has been shown in situ
in fresh water [13] and demonstrated under con-
trolled laboratory conditions [13-15] that certain
fishes have the ability to regulate body temperature
behaviorally by selecting water temperatures.
Bluefish and Atlantic mackerel, which are not as-
sociated with a specific place but rather to specific
thermal ranges (as well as with other environmental
parameters), have the capability to move in response
to changing temperature, thereby avoiding poten-
tially stressful conditions and maximizing their pres-
ence in zones which are selectively advantageous.
We suggest that animals such as these possess the
capability of generally avoiding stresses including
other contaminants. Whether avoidance actually oc-
curs will depend on a host of variables including
their motivation to be in a particular area, the char-
acteristics of the contaminant, the ability of the ani-
mal to detect it and whether or not it represents,
within the context of the animal's scope of respon-
siveness, a noxious or "danger" stimulus.
In contrast to these pelagic fishes are species which
are more restricted both in activity and movements.
The tautog, one of two members of the Labrid
family found in inshore temperate waters of the
western Atlantic, is found on or near the bottom,
in association with objects which provide shelter,
such as rocks, pilings, jetties, and various forms of
vegetation. Our knowledge of the natural habits and
requirements of this demersal fish was gained from
field studies on populations located in Great South
Bay, New York, specifically within the Fire Island
Inlet [16,17]. In our studies, we employed various
techniques including direct observation with SCUBA,
remote sensing with ultrasonic tracking, as well as
examination of digestive tracts of captured specimens.
From our direct underwater observations we found
distinct differences in the behaviour of the tautog
from day to night [16]. During the day they were
active and highly responsive, swimming in the water
column and feeding along the pilings and rubble in
the basin. During evening twilight, the number of
fish in proximity to the basin increased. By night-
time, the fish were settled in or on almost any object
that afforded cover, lying quiescent and unresponsive
throughout the night to the extent that they could be
touched or captured with a net. The tautog resumed
activity during morning twilight.
Thus, as is the case with the pelagic species, these
fish have a diurnal rhythm of activity, but with the
important difference that at night they are com-
pletely quiescent with significantly reduced ability to
respond to altering stimuli.
Results from sonically tracking adult fish (39-50
cm) from July to October showed that these large
tautog would move away from the homesite each
morning (some travelling as far as 500 meters) and
return each night. In contrast with these adults,
young tautog (=25 cm) remained in proximity to the
basin throughout the day, close to objects affording
shelter.
Underwater observations of the areas where the
adults spend significant amounts of time showed
large quantities of blue mussels, Mytilus edulis. It
seemed probable that the daily dispersal of these
large fish was related to feeding.
Analysis of the digestive tract contents supported
this view, indicating that blue mussels, averaging
about 12 mm in length, comprised the major food
item. The size of mussels ingested, by even the
largest tautog, was limited by the pharyngeal mill
at the opening of the esophagus. Since tautog of all
sizes are restricted in the size of mussels they can
28
-------
ingest, mussels less than three years old would be
the largest potential food resource for which this
population would compete. The daily dispersal of
the adults from the homesite was probably related
to more effective utilization of available resources,
reserving mussels at the homesite as a food for the
young fish.
These patterns of activity and feeding were typical
for this tautog population from July through October.
However, as temperatures dropped from the 16-24°C
range of summer and early fall to about 10°C in
November, we no longer saw tautog larger than
30 cm. This corresponds to the results of Cooper
[18] who found that fish of similar size moved out
of Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, to winter off-
shore in a relatively dormant state. In contrast, our
results showed that young fish remained in prox-
imity to the homesite, wintering over in a torpid,
non-feeding state. It was apparent that, for the 'first
3-4 and possibly 5 years, young fish are highly
restricted in their movements, associating closely
with the shelter throughout the year regardless of
temperature.
There are a number of possible reasons for shelter
dependence, but one of the most obvious and im-
portant for young and adult tautog is protection
from predation, especially critical during the periods
of lowered responsiveness. It seemed probable that
this high degree of dependence on shelter might well
limit or preclude any ability to avoid or escape
potentially lethal environmental stress, and we hy-
pothesized that tautog, particularly the young fish,
might have different behavioral capabilities for re-
sponse than we had observed with pelagic fishes.
Based on this premise, we tested the response
capabilities of young tautog in the laboratory to
high, stressful temperature. Two experimental aquaria
(1,400 and 1,500 1) isolated in temperature-con-
trolled rooms and equipped with lighting systems
which simulated day-night cycles, were used for
testing [19]. One to two clay drainage tiles were
placed on the sand bottom of each tank to provide
shelter. Temperature was regulated by thermostatic-
ally controlled units. In each of four tests, two fish
of nearly similar size were acclimated at 19.8-21.1°C
while observations of behavior patterns were re-
corded.
After an initial period of adjustment to the lab-
oratory, the fish would be active during the light
period, swimming about, searching for food and en-
gaging in aggressive behavior. The larger of the two
fish was always dominant, occupying the shelter,
and aggressively defending it against the subordi-
nate. The subordinate would dig a depression in
the sand adjacent to the aquarium wall, which
would serve as a shelter site. When small clumps
of mussels were placed on the sand, the dominant
fish, if not satiated, would defend this area, chasing
and nipping at the subordinate if it tried to feed. At
night, both fish would remain generally inactive and
quiescent.
The agreement between behaviors observed in
both field and laboratory again indicated that these
patterns transcended both situations and could be
used as baselines in evaluating thermal stress.
As temperature increased from acclimation levels
of 19.8 to 21.1°C (mean rate 1.26°C/h) at about
28 °C (absolute levels varying among fish), activity
decreased as association with shelter increased. As
the temperature was held at about 30°C (the level
varying within a 2°C range between tests), the activ-
ity of the fish diminished still further, Figures 2, 4,
and they became generally unresponsive, showing
little or no motivation to feed (Table 1). Aggression
decreased to the extent that the subordinate fish,
now highly motivated to enter and share the shelter
tile, could do so without being attacked by the
dominant (Table 1). Preliminary findings on the
effects of high but sublethal temperatures on adults,
indicated that activity as well as aggression was sig-
nificantly reduced, Figure 2.
The decrease in activity and responsiveness and
the accompanying increase in association with sheltei
100
^90
£80
70
o
oj 60
S
5 5°
Q
^ 40
UJ
30
20
10
ACCLIMATION
TEST
II III
EXPERIMENT
IV
Figure 4. Mean daytime activity of young tautog expressed
as percent total day observation time during
acclimation (19.8° to 21.1°C) and during tests
at elevated temperatures (26.9° to 32.0°C) for
four experiments (after Reference 19).
29
-------
TABLE 1. BEHAVIOR OF YOUNG TAUTOG (TAUTOGA ONITIS) AT ACCLIMATION AND
ELEVATED TEMPERATURE DERIVED FROM FOUR EXPERIMENTS, INCLUDING AGGRES-
SIVE ENCOUNTERS (MEAN FREQUENCY), SHELTER OCCUPANCY (MEAN % TIME) AND
FEEDING (MEAN WEIGHT IN GRAMS OR NUMBER OF INGESTIONS OF MYT1LUS EDU-
L1S). MODIFIED FROM OLLA & STUDHOLME, 1975.
Feeding
Acclimation
Test
Temperature
Range °C
19.8-21.1
26.9-32.0
No. of Aggressive
Encounters
16.48
5.04
Wt. Ingested
(g)*
5.50
1.35
No. of
Ingestions* *
23.4
1.3
Shelter
Dominant
37.40
51.14
Occupancy, % Time
Subordinate
4.88
24.3
Shared
0.05
13.72
*Based on three tests in which clam was used for food.
**Based on one test in which clumps of Mytilus were used for food.
at high temperature resembled typical nighttime
behavior of tautog. Since we had observed tautog
in the natural environment seeking shelter when
pursued by predators or when startled by divers, it
seemed clear that closer association with shelter
would serve as protection during periods of lowered
responsiveness, whether the stimulus was the onset
of nighttime or a stress such as temperature.
When exposure to sublethal temperatures was of
short duration, and the temperature returned to
20°C, several of the fish were able to survive, re-
suming feeding and normal activity within a few days.
In the natural environment, they could apparently
withstand thermal increases of a transient nature,
but if exposure were to be prolonged (dependent
also on the rate of increase and temperature attained),
survival would be impaired since it does not appear
that these fish have the behavioral capability to
regulate body temperature by moving to more optimal
thermal regions.
Other species, with similar dependence on shelter
(e.g., many of the coral reef species) may also be
restricted in the capacity to move from a given
locale under stressful conditions [20]; (Stevenson
personal communication).
Reduced capability for response may also depend
on when the stress is imposed. It is apparent that
the capability of tautog to respond to or escape
altering stimuli at night, when responsiveness is low,
would be significantly less than during the day. This
is in direct contrast with the pelagic fishes which
were highly responsive both day and night.
The contrasting responses of the pelagic species
and tautog to thermal stress support our contention
that it is important to define, species by species, the
normal behavioral*capabilities of each as related to
their specific environmental requirements before at-
tempting to predict the effects of potentially lethal
stresses. While certain physiological and biochemical
responses to temperature (and even other contami-
nants) may be common to a number of species, how
an animal may act when subjected to stress is based
on its normal scope of behavior. Generalizations
cannot be postulated until more is known about
species for which only the most meager information
now exists.
REFERENCES
1. Olla, B. L., 1974. (Editor). Behavioral measures of
environmental stress. In, Proc. of a workshop on
marine bioassays, Chairman, G. V. Cox, Marine Tech-
nology Society, Washington, D.C., pp. 1-31.
2. Olla, B. L., W. W. Marchioni & H. M. Katz, 1967. A
large experimental aquarium system for marine pelagic
fishes. Trans. Am. Fish. Soc., Vol. 96, pp. 143-150.
3. Olla, B. L. & A. L. Studholme, 1972. Daily and sea-
sonal rhythms of activity in the bluefish (Pomatomus
saltatrix). In, Behavior of marine animals: current per-
spectives in research, edited by H. E. Winn & B. L.
Olla, Plenum Press, New York, pp. 303-326.
4. Olla, B. L., A. L. Studholme, A. J. Bejda, C. Samet &
A. D. Martin, 1975. The effect of temperature on the
behavior of marine fishes: a comparison among Atlantic
mackerel, Scomber scombrus, bluefish, Pomatomus salta-
trix, and tautog, Tautoga onitis. In, Proc, of IAEA
symposium on the combined effects on the environment
of radioactive, chemical and thermal releases from the
nuclear industry, 2-5 June, 1975, Stockholm, Sweden,
(in press).
5. Olla, B. L., H. M. Katz & A. L. Studholme, 1970. Prey
capture and feeding motivation in the bluefish, Pomato-
mus saltatrix. Copeia, Vol. 1970 (2), pp. 360-362.
6. Lund, W. A., Jr. & G. C. Maltezos, 1970. Movements
and migrations of the bluefish, Pomatomus saltatrix,
tagged in waters of New York and southern New Eng-
land. Trans. Am. Fish. Soc., Vol. 99, pp. 719-725.
7. Sette, O. E., 1950. Biology of the Atlantic mackerel
(Scomber scombrus) of North America. II. Migrations
and habits. Fishery Bull. Fish. Wildl. Serv. U.S., Vol.
51, pp. 251-358.
8. Recksiek, C. W. & J. D. McCleave, 1973. Distribution
of pelagic fishes in Sheepscot River - Black River estu-
ary, Wiscasset, Maine. Trans. Am. Fish. Soc., Vol. 102,
pp. 541-551.
9. Dannevig, A., 1955. Mackerel and sea temperature.
Measurements — 21 April to 15 May, 1952. Praktiske
Fiskeforsok, 1952, Arsber. Norges Fisk., Vol. 5, pp.
64-67. Cited in I. Hela & T. Laevastu, 1961. Fisheries
Hydrography, Fishing News (Books) Ltd., London,
p. 21.
10. Olla, B. L. & A. L. Studholme, 1971. The effect of
temperature on the activity of bluefish, Pomatomus
saltatrix L. Biol. Bull. Mar. Biol. Lab., Woods Hole,
Vol. 141, pp. 337-349.
30
-------
11. Fry, F. E. L, 1971. The effect of environmental factors
on the physiology of fish. In, Fish Physiology, Vol. VI,
edited by W. S. Hoar & D. J. Randall, Academic Press,
New York, pp. 1-98.
12. Stevens, E. D. 1973. The evolution of endothermy. J.
Theor. Biol., Vol. 38, pp. 597-611.
13. Neill, W. H. & J. J. Magnuson, 1974. Distributional
ecology and behavioral thermoreregulation in fishes in
relation to heated effluent from a power plant on Lake
Monona, Wisconsin. Trans. Am. Fish. Soc., Vol. 103,
pp. 663-710.
14. Rozin, P. N. & J. Mayer, 1961. Thermal reinforcement
and thermoregulatory behavior in the goldfish, Caras-
sius auratus. Science, N. Y., Vol. 134, pp. 942-943.
15. Neill, W. H., J. J. Magnuson & G. C. Chipman, 1972.
Behavioral thermoregulation by fishes: a new experi-
mental approach. Science, N.Y., Vol. 176, pp. 1443-
1445.
16. Olla, B. L., A. J. Bejda & A. D. Martin, 1974. Daily
activity, movements, feeding, and seasonal occurrence
in the tautog, Tautoga onitis.
17. Olla, B. L., A. J. Bejda & A. D. Martin, 1975. Activity,
movements, and feeding behavior of the cunner, Tauto-
golabrus adspersus, and comparison of food habits with
young tautog, Tautoga onitis, off Long Island, New
York. Fishery Bull., U.S., Vol. 73, (in press).
18. Cooper, R. R., 1966. Migration and population estima-
tion of the tautog, Tautoga onitis (Linnaeus), from
Rhode Island. Trans. Am. Fish. Soc., Vol. 95, pp. 239-
247.
19. Olla, B. L. & A. L. Studholme, 1975. The effect of
temperature on the behavior of young tautog, Tautoga
onitis (L.). In, Proc. 9th Europ. Mar. Biol. Symp.,
edited by H. Barnes, Aberdeen University Press, pp.
75-93.
20. Sale, P. F., 1971. Extremely limited home range in a
coral reef fish, Dascyllus aruanus (Pisces: Pomacentri-
dae). Copeia, Vol. 1971 (2), pp. 324-327.
31
-------
PRINCIPLES OF SETTING NORMS OF ANTHROPOGENIC
INFLUENCES ON THE VERTEBRATE POPULATION
V. YE. SOKOLOV, I. A. IL'YENKO, and A. N. SEVERTSON
At present, in connection with man's strong influ-
ence on natural complexes, the pollution of the bio-
sphere with industrial wastes, urbanization and the
chemicalization of agriculture, the determination of
criteria for evaluating the extent of permissible ef-
fects of anthropogenic influences on the animal popu-
lation and ecosystem as a whole is becoming the
main topic for ecological study. From the point of
view of the influence on the commercially valuable
animal population it is necessary to determine the
permissible burdens which either would have no in-
fluence on these populations or would have an insig-
nificant effect on them. In the latter case such an
effect should not cause a sharp decline or increase in
the number, a decrease in animal vitality, and should
not influence normal reproduction in the population.
For example, the overcatching of animals as well as
the undercatching would be of great harm to their
protection. Therefore at present, the concept "the
protection of animals" includes their wise use and
reproduction [1]. On the other hand, with respect to
dangerous animals, it is essential to establish minimal
standards of influence, which are sufficient to disrupt
the successful existence of the population and sharply
decrease the number or even completely eliminate
individuals of this species in a given region (or
throughout the entire area).
The history of the influence of human activity on
the commercially valuable animal population on
USSR territory yields examples of both negative and
positive results. The depredatory utilization of a
number of species of valuable mammals, elk (Alces
alces), saiga (Saiga tataricd), beaver (Castor fiber),
sable (Maries zibellina) and other species, had led to
their near complete extinction toward the end of the
19th and beginning of the 20th centuries. The ban
on hunting these animals and subsequently the wise
utilization of a part of the population enabled their
number to be restored. For example, the beaver,
which at one time populated nearly the entire forest
zone of the European part of the country and were
encountered beyond the Urals, at the beginning of
this century remained only in four small territories
far from each other: in the Dnepr River Basin, in the
Don River Basin, in the North Trans-Urals along the
Konda and Sos'va rivers, and along the upper reaches
of the Yenisey River. Measures were taken to pro-
tect the beaver and increase their number. Since
1922 the hunting of beaver has been prohibited every-
where. Three special preserves were created. Begin-
ning in 1927, the resettling of the beaver began. The
scope of reacclimization grew particularly after the
war. From 1946 through 1970, 12,017 beaver had
been resettled.
By the end of the 1960's, as a result of measures
taken in the USSR, the beaver had settled a territory
approximately the size of its area in the 17th cen-
tury, and the number of beaver reached about
90,000. The increased number of beaver made it
possible to organize their commercial hunting, which
gradually increased from 537 in 1963 and 1964 to
2376 in 1969 and 1970. In the RSFSR, from 1969
through 1975 the number of elk increased from
455,000 to 640,000; saiga from 135,000 to 330,000;
wild boar (Sus scrofa) from 71,000 to 131,000; and
beaver from 64,000 to 89,000 [2]. The regulated
hunting of these species of animals at present does
not threaten their population and is not causing a
sharp decline in their number. All this is so in spite
of the fact that commercial hunting of these species
is very intensive. For example, annually (from 1957
to the present) in different years from 30,000 to
nearly 200,000 saiga alone have been bagged.
In our age man is developing the natural resources
of all the continents and oceans. A large number of
species of animals of the world's fauna, including
mammals, have in some way become involved in the
sphere of human economic, cultural and scientific
interests. And the regulation of population processes,
which is based on scientific data, is now already
within reach.
The principles of setting norms of man-made influ-
ences on the animal population should be founded
on specific knowledge of the dynamics of the num-
ber, the age, sex and distribution patterns of the
population, the ability to reproduce (intensity of
32
-------
reproduction) of each species, its food base (the
availability under natural conditions of a sufficient
amount of food), on the one hand. On the other, it
is essential to consider the permissible terms and
means of removing a part of the animals from the
population — a part that can be quickly restored in
the process of reproduction.
The setting of norms of any influences should be
based only on in-depth scientific research.
As a rule, each species of vertebrates populates its
own area not in its entirety, but only individual
places, occupying only the ecosystems suitable for its
existence. The degree of proportionality of the popu-
lation depends on the specifics of the demands of the
species on the sphere of habitation, on the place used
for purposes of food, and on the natural geographical
features of the territory. In different ecosystems the
density of the animal population is far from identical.
The existence of a number of gradations of settle-
ment attests to the varying degrees of suitability of
biogeocenoses to the life of the species and makes it
possible to judge their demands on the surroundings.
At present we know that the number of animals
populating individual areas and entire regions is far
from stable and fluctuates greatly from season to
season and year to year.
The dynamics of the number in the mammal pop-
ulation is to a certain extent specific for each species.
The basic biological traits characteristic of the type
of dynamics of the number of animals are the fertility
rate and life expectancy. The fertility rate is histori-
cally connected with resistance to unfavorable influ-
ences of the sphere of habitation and the average life
expectancy of individuals. The appearance of adap-
tations is accompanied by a corresponding lowering
of the fertility rate. The animal fertility rate is an
adaptation which arose in the course of evolution
and offsets the death rate. The balancing of repro-
duction and death, which ensures relative stability in
the population under relatively stable conditions of
existence, has deep historical roots.
Especially well defined are the fluctuation in num-
ber among massive, rapidly multiplying species, for
example, among many rodents and small predators.
Fluctuating greatly is the number of certain ungulates
(the wild boar [Sus scrofa], roe deer [Capreolus
capreolus], the caribou [Rangifer tarandus], the saiga
[Saiga tatarica], and several others). Among rela-
tively rare and slowly multiplying species, for exam-
ple, among large predators, the number is more
stable from year to year.
The causes for the inconstancy in number of ani-
mals are quite diverse. At the basis of this phenom-
enon are changes in the intensity of reproduction and
the rapidity of the dying out of the population, which
in turn depend on changes in the conditions of their
existence. The changes in number are directly influ-
enced by climatic conditions, the provision of food,
the number of predators, and the spread of parasites
and agents of infectious diseases.
The change in number of a majority of species has
a certain, although not strictly defined, periodicity.
For example, the duration of the cycle of change in
number of the Arctic fox (Alapex lagopus) is 3 to 4
years. For the squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) and hare
(Lepus timidus) the duration of the cycle varies in
different parts of the area of distribution. In the taiga
zone great upsurges in number occur every 9 to 11
years, in the southern part of the area somewhat
more frequently, but after less specific time intervals
[3-5].
At the basis of the principle of setting norms of
the process of hunting the population of commercially
valuable species is the seasonal change in the number
of animals.
The minimal number of a majority of species is
observed at the end of winter and in the spring prior
to the beginning of reproduction. In autumn, as a
rule, the highest number of animals occurs. At the
same time, the magnitude of the number, as compared
with the number of animals in the population in the
spring, is directly proportional to the fertility rate of
the animals. Among small mammals (rodents and
insectivora) the seasonal changes in number may
reach hundreds of times. Among large animals these
fluctuations are significantly lower. Thus, for exam-
ple, the annual increase in the elk herd reaches 15%
of the number in spring [6]. During the winter, when
as a rule animal reproduction does not occur, the
number of individuals in the population decreases as
a result of the natural death rate, unfavorable cli-
matic conditions and so forth, and reaches a mini-
mum in spring. Depending on climatic conditions of
the year, the spring minimum in number can vary in
different years. By knowing the spring number of
animals and the fertility rate of the species, we can
determine the reproduction intensity in comparison
with the conditions of the year and calculate the
magnitude of the fall number, which will also deter-
mine the norm for the bag of animals. For example,
the number of saiga in Kazakhstan in March-April
1974 was 1.2 million. In the spring, after calving,
the number grew to 1.7 million, which made it pos-
sible to shoot 25% of the herd [7]. The indices of
reproduction of a species or population are very sig-
nificant when setting the norms for the yield of hunt-
ing. Thus, relatively similar species of marmots have
different fertility rates. For the Menzbier marmot
(Marmota menzbieri) there are 20young for each 100
adults and immature adults; for the red (M. caudata)
and gray (M, baibacind) marmot there are 30 to 40
young; for the bobac (M. bobac) 40 to 50; and the
33
-------
tarabagan (M. siburicd) more than 50. Without con-
sidering this varying reproductive ability, it is impos-
sible to correctly plan hunting. If you remove from
the population a number of marmot exceeding the
reproductive capability, it is possible not only to
decrease its number, but also to wipe it out.
Different populations of the same species, which
live under different conditions, also differ in their
reproductive abilities. The elk in the European part
of the USSR usually give birth to two young, while
the elk of the Trans-Baykal and Primor'ye regions
almost always give birth to one.
The different populations of sable have different
fertility rates. In the Yenisey region of Siberia the
fertility index of the sable is 3.2, while in Kamchatka
it is 4.0. The significance of these biological traits
of populations must be considered when planning
hunting, for determining the possible percentage of
the take from the population, so as to preserve the
reproductive capability of the breeding stock.
The fertility rate of a species also depends on the
conditions of the sphere of its habitation and can
change from year to year within the same region.
The reasons for this may be the result of different
factors: food, climatic, physiological, the sex and
age structure of the population [8].
Removal from the population of a part of the indi-
viduals improves the conditions of existence of the
animals during the period of unfavorable winter con-
ditions; the total burden on the food base decreases
and the amount of food per animal increases. Thin-
ning of the population decreases the possibility that
widespread epizootics will appear.
The removal of animals from the spring popula-
tion can not be permitted, since such an action de-
creases the reproductive capability of the population
and may lead to a sharp decrease in the number of
animals.
Even for large species of animals there are unfav-
orable years, when the effect on this species results
in a long-term depression of its number. Such was
the case in Primorskiy Kray with the squirrel in 1964,
when the number of this little animal was very low,
and in order to quickly restore it, the hunting of it
had to be banned. But this was not done, and the
preparation of pelts that year decreased sharply (in
all, 8000 pelts were prepared, instead of the 105,000
to 277,000 in years when the number is normal, or
the 30,000 to 54,000 in years with a minimal num-
ber). As a result of hunting, the number of squirrel
decreased even further and its restoration in subse-
quent years proceeded at a very slow pace, which
was reflected in the decrease in its bag for a number
of subsequent years [8].
At present the increasingly more intense protection
of animals does not always produce the desired re-
sults. In a number of regions of the USSR the
increased number of ungulates is creating higher
burdens on pasture lands, depressing natural refor-
estation, and frequently results in the death of the
forest plantations of valuable types of trees, espe-
cially the pine (Pinus silvestrus). This situation has
been observed in a number of reserves in the central
oblasts of the USSR. According to the data of [9],
elk have done considerable damage to the timber
industry. During the period 1959 to 1968, in Altay-
skiy Kray the are of timber crops killed off as a result
of stripping was 8500 hectares, which brought dam-
ages in the amount of 1.021 million rubles. Herds of
saiga came into conflict with agriculture and sheep
raising. Large herds of wild caribou, which pasture on
slowly regrowing mosses, are creating serious diffi-
culty for the further development of domestic caribou
breeding. The increased fertility of the wild boar
population in the central oblasts of the European part
of the USSR has led to a sharp decrease in the num-
ber of wildfowl on hunting grounds, to outbreaks of
dangerous infectious diseases and to increased harm-
ful influences of these animals on the productivity of
agricultural lands. As a result, the government is
sustaining huge losses, numbering in the millions of
rubles [10].
At present in most regions of the USSR the large
predators, which regulate the number of ungulates
and, being scavengers, single out from the population
the weakest and least valuable animals, have been
almost entirely exterminated. Therefore, man should
assume the role of the predators on the population
of herbivorous animals.
The reasons for the artificial removal of part of
the population, regulation of the norms and terms of
bagging animals are formed from precise knowledge
of the number of exploitable species and capacity
(suitability to the life of the lands). The optimal
variant occurs when the number of animals is in
complete correspondence with the capacity of the
lands characteristic of the species, i.e., when in pro-
viding pasturing ungulates with fodder to the full
extent the pastures are not degraded into classes of
lower productivity, and the productivity of the popu-
lation of the ungulates themselves is the highest.
Consequently, the extent of the annual take of
animals from the populations should be equal to the
annual increase in their number, under the condition
that the optimal number of this population be main-
tained. At the same time, the quantitative aspect of
the burdens of hunting still has not resolved the mat-
ter. It is also important which animals are bagged —
males or females, young or adult animals, in what
combinations and in what proportions [10].
The negative consequences of taking from the un-
gulate population only adult animals leads to an
34
-------
impermissible lowering of the age of the population
and fragmentation of the animals of the herd, to the
inefficient use of fodders in the biogeocenosis. Thus,
in Volgogradskaya Oblast, as a result of sport and
commercial shooting only of adult animals, the elk
population grew younger. Calves there formed 49%
of the herd [11].
In Western Europe and on some hunting reserves
of the USSR the shooting of animals in order to ob-
tain valuable trophies, primarily horns and the large
tusks of wild boar, is widely practiced. In this case
the most vital, physiologically fit and valuable speci-
mens for the reproduction of the population are
bagged. As a result, the animals in the population
become fragmented, their stability of life decreases,
and the available number of genes grows worse.
The preferential shooting only of males leads to
two negative consequences for the population: a rise
in the percentage of barren females and a decrease
in the intensity of sexual selection which facilitates
the inclusion in the reproductive process of young
males who produce a posterity of poorer quality. In
those cases when more females are bagged, this re-
sults in a decrease in the productivity of the popula-
tions, but, at the same time, increases the intensity
of sexual selection, which leads to an increase in the
quality (stability of life) of the posterity [10].
Under ideal conditions, when the number of ani-
mals in the population corresponds to the capacity
of the lands, both sexes and all ages in those com-
binations and proportions in which the animals are
represented under natural conditions should be sub-
ject to hunting.
Different means of hunting and terms for taking
animals have an unpremeditated selectivity. Owing
to the behavior traits of sex and age groups during
each specific period of the entire term of activity,
certain categories of animals come under the fire of
hunters. For example, at the beginning of the hunt
for elk, owing to less caution and greater attachment
to the sector of habitation, more females are shot, in
the middle of the hunting period males and females
are shot with equal frequency, while at the end many
more males are bagged [10]. At the same time, the
expenditures of time to bag animals increase from
the beginning to the end of the hunting season.
The majority of means of hunting ungulates have
an unpremeditated selectivity. Thus, when hunting
wild boar with dogs, young females are primarily
bagged, while when hunting from a blind, adult male
boars more frequently come under fire.
The artificial regulation of the number of animals,
with due regard for the age, sex and distribution pat-
terns of the population, its ability to reproduce, and
the potentials of the lands, makes it possible to
achieve the maximum achievable product.
On the territory of the RSFSR, as a rule, the
number of animals taken from the population during
the hunting period is significantly less than the per-
missible hunting yields, see Table 1.
TABLE 1. THE NUMBER OF SHOT ANIMALS OF
SEVERAL SPECIES ON THE TERRITORY OF THE
RSFSR IN 1974 (1000's) AND THE NORMS OF THE
PERMISSIBLE HUNTING YIELDS ON THE POPULA-
TION [12-14].
Species of
Animal
Counted
Shot
% of Permissible
Taken Level of Hunt-
Animals ing Yield, %
Waterfowl
Elk
Deer
Roe Deer
Caribou
Saiga
Wild Boar
9275
184.4
14.8
3.2
—
—
61.8
1799
14.1
0.6
0.3
—
—
6.8
19.4
7.6
4.7
6.2
10-12
—
11.0
35
20-25
10-15
10-15
—
40
up to 50
Many species of vertebrates have adapted to the
regular effects of hunting [15]. Therefore, the ceas-
ing or sharp curtailment of its intensity at times re-
sults in unfavorable consequences. The number of
many species of commercially valuable animals on
lands long unfrequented by hunters is often lower
than on lands regularly developed for hunting.
For example, on the Konda-Sos'va preserve,
following a 22-year ban on hunting, there were
significantly less sable than on the lands adjacent
to it. In sable populations touched only occasionally
by shooting, young individuals made up 10.5 to
14.3% of the total, adults from 21.7 to 38.7%,
and the old from 47.0 to 62.4% (an extremely large
number of old). In places where normal hunting
and trapping took place, the sable populations were
made up of 54.0 to 62.0% young, 36.3 to 46.6%
adults, and 1.2% old (the healthy population).
Quite different principles of the effect on the
animal populations are at the basis of the struggle
against agricultural pests (insects and rodents) or
carriers of natural infections of man and agricultural
animals. In such cases it is a matter of the complete
removal of specific species from the ecosystem or a
curtailment of their number to the point that they
no long represent an appreciable danger.
A good example of the long-term effect on the
mammal populations from the curing of a natural
plague outbreak in Priaral'skiye Karakumy is cited
[16]. In the process of ridding the territory of
plague, a breakdown of the epizootological chain
occurred: the warm-blooded host, a large sand eel
(Rhombomys opimus); plague microbe; fleas. An
exception to this occurred where microbes continued
to exist in desert ecosystems through long-term (3-4
yr) maintenance of a low number of rodents. These
35
-------
rodents are elementary hotbeds forming a most stable
site for the preservation of the agent in nature.
Extermination work using poison bait and other
means was carried out on hundreds of thousands of
hectares, with subsequent "mop-ups" — the destruc-
tion of remaining small colonies of rodents. This
work was preceded by much scientific research.
It is interesting to note that as a result of the
extermination of the large sand eels on vast terri-
tories, predatory birds and mammals have either
disappeared from these regions or shifted to feeding
on other types of animals. Consequently, the effects
on one species in the ecosystem caused a significant
influence on the populations of other species and
on the entire ecosystem as a whole. Moreover,
the extermination of the large sand eel has led to
a change in the plant community at their colonies,
which facilitated an improvement of the food base
for other herbivorous animals. Many similar
examples could be cited.
Some anthropogenic influences on the landscape
result not only in a decrease of the number of
animals, but even in the complete extinction of entire
populations. The complete felling of forests, the
plowing up of virgin lands, the flooding of river
floodlands, and so forth cause the disappearance
of some species of animals and the appearance of
new species on "cultivated" territories.
The extermination of a species or the sharp
decrease in its number on a relatively small territory
does not lead to its disappearance. Following the
cessation of the influence on the population or a
part of it, through reproduction of the remaining
individuals and the moving in from outside, the
number of animals may soon be restored. For
example, the population of elk in the European
part of the USSR at the beginning of this century
had been greatly thinned, while in the central and
southern oblasts it had been totally exterminated.
Owing to protection the elk quickly resettled and
at present the area of their distribution has reached
the Northern Caucasus.
Very similar phenomena are observed in fish
populations in the case of fishing. As a result of
long-term intensive fishing and irrational manage-
ment, the reserves of sturgeon in the Caspian by
the 1940's had entered a depressed state. The catch
was no more than 50,000 quintals. To re-establish
the reserves of these valuable commercial fish
(primarily the sturgeon), the following measures
were taken:
—the complete ban on commercial fishing for a
period of 8 to 10 years;
—the establishment of commercial size and limit
(quota of catch);
—reconstruction of the food base of the Caspian
sturgeon by introducing new species of mollusks and
Polychaeta (Nereis—Nereis pelagicd);
—improvement of the coastal water regime (puri-
fication of sewage), observance of permissible norms
of pollution by oil enterprises, regulation of explora-
tory blasting work;
—artificial breeding.
As a result the present catch of sturgeon in
the Caspian has increased to 250,000 quintals. In
the future it will reach 500,000 quintals.
Fishing has a multiple influence on the school
of commercial fish. By taking a part of the school,
fishing on the one hand, by thinning the population,
raises the supply of food for the remainder of the
school, which is connected with a change in the
growth rate of the individual fish, the age of achieve-
ment of sexual maturity, and the age limit. Selective
fishing, when using any method of catching and nets
with different sizes of netting, in removing some
part of the population, tells on the change in the
population structure, and thereby also on its repro-
ductive properties [17].
By removing part of the school, fishing inevitably
changes the intensity, and at times event the nature
of the effect of the school of fish on its feed base,
creating in a number of instances favorable condi-
tions for feeding other species of fish, which consume
foods similar to the foods of the species that is
the object of fishing. By thinning the school of
predatory fish, fishing changes the intensity and
nature of its effect on the school of peaceful fish.
Let us take, for example, an elementary food
link, the triotroph of our lakes, say in Pskovsko-
Chudskoye reservoir: zooplankton — lake smelt
(sparling) and pike perch. The crayfish which form
the zooplankton are eaten by the sparling, and the
sparling are destroyed by the pike perch. The pike
perch has practically no predators.
In the unfished reservoir a mobile equilibrium
of the food chain is being established: the abundance
of phytoplankton determines the number of its
consumers — the crayfish of zooplankton; the
number and mass of zooplankton in turn determine
the number of its consumers — the sparling, and
the biomass of the sparling in the final analysis is
the cause of the number and biomass of the
pike perch.
Assume that fishing aimed at catching the pike
perch encroaches on the established natural dy-
namic equilibrium of these inhabitants of Pskovsko-
Chudskoye reservoir. Having caught a part of the
school of pike perch, fishing lowers the loss of the
sparling school as a result of this predator or, as
is customary to say, weakens the press of the
predators. An excess number in the sparling school
36
-------
is created, which can be removed from the reservoir.
In this case, fishing for sparling replaces the preda-
tor, as if assuming the role of the predator.
Thus, the basic natural reserve of the commercial
product should be seen in the directed restructuring
by fishing of the food interrelationships among
populations in the reservoir for the purpose of "re-
placing the predator." This can be regarded as a
direct influence on the biocenosis with the purpose
of removing a part of the biomass and converting
it into a commercially valuable product.
Another form of fishing activity is indirect,
oblique, aimed at weakening the rival relations
among species and within a species. In lakes the
bream and ruff feed on similar food, bottom inverte-
brates. The intensive fishing for ruff frees food for
the other, more valuable species, the bream, and
thereby enables an acceleration of itss growth and
an increase in the number and biomass.
With respect to schooling fish, for some the school
is a defensive means against predators; fishing, in
breaking up the school structure, can often make
these fish more accessible to the activity of preda-
tors. Finally, in a number of cases, fishing changes
the parasite relations of commercially valuable fish.
From its effects on the population, fishing is
reminiscent of the effect of predators, and the
reaction of the population to fishing is in many ways
similar to its reaction to the influence of predators.
The difference usually is that fishing primarily affects
the best, sexually mature part of the school, while
predators affect the sexually immature and sick part.
Fishing, by thinning the school, creates more
favorable conditions for the supply of food for the
remainder of the population and thereby affects the
intensity of its reproduction. For intensively fished
populations of commercially valuable fish the growth
rate is higher and the population fertility rate is
greater. However, for all fish populations an in-
crease in the intensity of fishing causes a rise in the
growth rate and fertility rate only to specific limits,
above which, the regulatory mechanisms of the
population are disturbed, and they cease to react
to further thinning of the school. This is a very
serious signal of overfishing. Species of fish with
a short life cycle, early sexual maturation, great
replenishment with respect to the remainder, which
have adapted to the intensive effect of predators on
the sexually mature part of the population, permit
an even greater percentage of take of the sexually
mature population through fishing. While fish with
a very aged population structure, late sexual matura-
tion, with a relatively low replenishment with respect
to the remainder following fishing, and which have
adapted to a relatively low death rate from predators
at old age, permit a relatively small percentage of
take with respect to the entire sexually mature
part of the school.
Thus, fishing of a specific intensity, different for
different species which differ in the nature of the
dynamics of the school, might also not disturb
its reproduction. This occurs when fishing removes
that part of the school, to the removal of which
the population is adapted (eating by predators),
when fishing can be offset by the regulatory mecha-
nisms of the population, i.e., when fishing appears
to be an element of the environment. Given a
similar intensity of fishing and, of course, if spawning
and the condition of development of the young
are not disrupted, the population will be able to
exist for many years, annually providing a specific
catch [17].
Selectivity (selective action) of the tackle and
means of catching depends on very many causes;
like fishing efficiency it is the result of the inter-
action of the tackle and the fish and is determined
both by the qualities of the tackle and means of
catching and by the qualities of the fish population
being caught. The selection of the tackle and means
of catching is made in a number of directions:
choice of fish of a specific size, quickest growing,
specific sex and maturity of sexual products, specific
fatness and fat content, and, finally, choice of fish
of different stages of fattening.
At present, fishing has on a school of commer-
cially valuable fish a very significant and diverse
influence. On fish with a different nature of school
dynamics this influence can vary. With respect to a
number of species of fish extreme fishing has led
to a decrease in their number and a progressive
decline in catches. This concerns above all bottom
fish with poorly defined fluctuations in number.
The changes occurring in the structure of the
population of commercially valuable fish under the
influence of fishing are quite diverse. In some cases
a sharp decline in the age of the school is observed,
in others, in spite of the considerable intensity of
fishing, the age structure of the school remains
unchanged. Among fish with significant fluctuations,
the changes in the structure of the school under
the influence of fishing are usually less noticeably
defined than for fish with small fluctuations in the
productivity of generations.
In order to set correct norms on the size of the
fish catch, there must be timely information on
changes occurring in the population. Therefore the
fishing industry sets the size of the fish catch by
taking into consideration two elements: (1) the value
of the raw material base at the moment and (2) the
prediction of change in the number and biomass
of the schools of fish being caught in the future.
Present prediction of the number and biomass of
37
-------
the school of fish provides the industry with informa-
tion on the maximum permissible catch of each
species, the size, age and sex composition of the
spawning school, and a qualitative description of
the fish. Of great significance in making predictions
of fish catches is the description of the food base.
On the basis of predictions not only the total
size of the catch, but also its quality are planned.
Thus, at the basis of setting norms of anthropogenic
influence on the populations of commercially valu-
able fish and mammals there have been used, in
general, the same principles which are based on
universal biological laws.
Obviously, pollution with industrial wastes should
be considered a no less significant influence,
not always controllable by man, on the animal
populations.
The Institute of Evolutionary Morphology and
Ecology of Animals of the USSR Academy of
Sciences for a number of years has been studying
the effect on the rodent population of artificial
contamination, for experimental purposes, of eco-
systems with strontium 90 soil contamination levels
up to 3.4 millicuries/m2 [18]. These studies showed
that in the degree of effect of this new ecological
factor for animals two periods can be singled out.
First period. The animal population for the first
time came under conditions of radioactive contami-
nation. In this instance a strong effect on the
population of small mammals is observed. The age,
sex and distribution pattern of the population
changes. The death rate increases and the life
expectancy of individuals decreases. The embryonic
death rate increases, the period of reproduction in
the population decreases, the reproduction rates
decline. The interrelations "host- endo- and ecto-
parasites" and "victim-predator" become more
acute. A change in the animals' behavior is also
noted [18]. Radioactive contamination of the eco-
system has its strongest effect on the oldest animals
at the end of their life. Such specimens no longer
participate in the reproductive processes and usually
die a natural death. When they are removed even
through the effect of radiation, the size of the
population does not decline significantly, since the
number of such animals is not great. It was estab-
lished that in spite of breakdowns in ecology, rodent
populations can exist on territories contaminated
with strontium 90 up to levels of 1.0 to 3.4 milli-
curies/m2.
Second period. The population lived under condi-
tions of radioactive contamination for several repro-
duction periods. In this instance, owing to natural
selection there remain in the population the animals
more resistant to radiation, which produce a pos-
terity more resistant to radiation. The population's
resistance to radiation in this case increases. The
effects of the influence on it of the radioactive
factor of the sphere of habitation are less appreciable
[18, 19].
Additional radiation with gamma rays of rodents
taken from populations inhabiting for 15 years
sectors contaminated with strontium 90 and a clean
area showed that these animals do not differ
significantly with respect to this factor, see Tables
2 and 3.
TABLE 2. LDso/ao FOR TWO SPECIES OF RODENTS
TISSUES OF THEIR SPLEENS IN POPULATONS ON
SECTORS ARTIFICIALLY CONTAMINATED WITH
STRONTIUM 90 FOLLOWING RADIATION WITH
COBALT 90 AT A DOSE OF 200 r [18,20].
Species
Red Vole
Wood Mice
Experimental
Sectors
Contaminated by
strontium 90
Control
Contaminated by
strontium 90
Control
LD 00/30,
r
980±26
949±20
600±32
630±25
Aberrant
Cells, %
10.4±1.1
9.8±0.6
11.6±0.7
14.6±0.9
The experiment was conducted on a species highly
resistant to radioactivity, red voles (Clethrionomys
rutilus), and a less resistant species, wood mice
(Apodemus sylvaticus). Similar results were obtained
for both species.
TABLE 3. NUMBER OF CHROMOSOME ABERRA-
TIONS IN CELLS OF THE SPLEEN OF RED VOLES
AND WOOD MICE INHABITING SECTORS ARTI-
FICIALLY CONTAMINATED WITH STRONTIUM 90
FOLLOWING RADIATION WITH COBALT 90 IN A
DOSE OF 200 r [18].
Sectors
Experimental
Conditions
Number of Aber-
rant Cells
Control
Contaminated
Control
Contaminated
Red Vole
Spontaneously
200 r
Spontaneously
200 r
Wood Mice
Spontaneously
200 r
Spontaneously
200 r
5.6±0.5
9.8±0.6
6.4±0.4
10.4±1.1
8.2±0.6
14.4±0.9
8.0±1.7
11.6±0.7
Thus, certain cases of the adaptation of bacteria
populations to various chemical substances and the
emergence of DDT-resistant insect populations are
complemented also by the case of the adaptation
of populations of small mammals to radioactive
contamination. Apparently, the emergence of popu-
lations resistant to certain contaminations of eco-
38
-------
systems with chemical substances can be a universal
biological law.
The problem of setting ecological norms of the
contamination of the ecosystem from the point of
view of the influence on the mammal population is
very complicated. Furthermore, it should be taken
into consideration that in forest ecosystems, when
there are contaminations by chemical and radioactive
substances, the first to die are the species of fir
trees, which are significantly more sensitive to this
factor than verterbrate animals [21]. In this
instance there occur the thinning of the forests
and a significant change in the species composition
of the animals in the ecosystem, up to the complete
disappearance of certain species.
It is impossible not to dwell on the question of
the migration of certain elements in the food chains
in the ecosystem. At present, when calculating the
maximum permissible concentration for freshwater
ecosystems, consideration is not always given to an
element's propensity to be concentrated in specific
trophic levels of food chains. Figure 1 shows our
data on the migration of strontium 90 and cesium
137 in some food chains of a body of fresh
water [22].
Strontium 90
(skeleton, kg)
2 Predatory fish
1 Predatory fish
Victim (herbivorous
fish)
Food of victim
(periphyton)
Water (1)
0.22
0.66
Cesium 137
(muscles, kg)
1.3
480.0
0.7
9-8 Pisci- 200-0
vorous
Bird
_1^L_0.04 0.2 0.18
230.0 7 o §70*6870
I I
1.0 1.0
150.0 368.0
1.0
1.0
Figure 1. Quantitative distribution of strontium 90 and
cesium 137 in the food chain of the zoocenosis
of a body of fresh water in relation to the con-
tent of the radioisotope in food of the victim
(numerator) and the water (denominator)
(ll'yenko).
As is evident from the data cited in the figure,
the concentration of strontium 90 in relation to its
content in the water as the food chain gets longer,
decreases in the skeleton of invertebrates. In the
secondary consumer — the predatory fish, and in
the piscivorous bird — its concentration still exceeds
the content in the water respectively by 3.3 and 7.0
times. In the case of cesium 137, the concentration
increased respectively by 480 and 68 times.
Moreover, it is necessary to consider the extent
of resistivity of the organisms which are at different
trophic levels in the food chains, which can differ by
tens and hundreds of times. Unfortunately, at
present this question still remains very little studied.
Anthropogenic influences on populations of
invertebrate animals may have a diverse nature.
They can be short-term and periodic short-term
(annual); long-term; or permanent. It is evident that,
depending on the nature of the influence, the popu-
lation will react to them in different ways.
Short-term and periodic short-term influences.
A decrease in the number of animals through
partial removal. Temporary change in the structure
of the population. Improvement of the food base
for the remaining animals. Heightening of the
reproductive ability of the population. Restoration
of the number in the next reproduction season.
Long-term influence. Sharp decrease in number.
Disruption of the age, sex and distribution patterns
of the population. Following the cessation of the
influence a slow restoration of the number through
reproduction of surviving local specimens and ani-
mals moving in from surrounding territories.
Permanent influence. At first a decrease in num-
ber, then the complete extermination of the specimens
in the population. The population may be reestab-
lished after many years, through migration of animals
from bordering territories. There may be adaptation
of the population to some anthropogenic influences
after the long-term unfavorable effect.
The proposed system does not claim to be com-
plete and as data are accumulated will be supple-
mented and improved.
REFERENCES
1. Sokolov, V. Ye., Sablina, T. B. 1974. The Protection
and Utilization of Mammals, Moscow, Izdatel'stvo
Znaniye, seriya biologicheskaya, 3.
2. Yeliseyev, N., Zuyev, Ye. 1975. "Protection of Game,"
Hunting and Hunting Management, 8, pp. 4-5.
3. Kolosov, A. M., Lavrov, N. P., Naumov, S. P. 1961.
Biology of Fur-Bearing Animals of the USSR, Moscow,
Vysshaya shkola.
4. Barabash-Nikiforov, I. I., Formozov, A. N. 1963. The
Study of Beasts, Moscow, Vysshaya shkola.
5. Naumov, N. P. 1963. Animal Ecology, Moscow,
Vysshaya shkola.
6. Dvoryankin, A. V. 1975. "The Influence of Hunting
on the Number and Structure of the Elk Population of
the Lower Priamur'ye," Moscow, Nauka.
7. Sludskiy, A. A., Fadeyev, V. A. 1975. "Resources of
Wild Ungulates of Kazakhstan, Their Status and Pros-
pects of Utilization," Moscow, Nauka.
8. Abramov, V. K. 1973. "Principles of the Protection of
Mammals," The Protection, Reproduction and Efficient
Use of Resources Of the Animal World Of Eastern
Siberia, Ulan-Ude, Buryatskoya knizhnoye izdatel'stvo,
pp. 6-23.
39
-------
9. Bondarev, A. Ya. 1975. "The Distribution and Bag of
Elk in Altayskiy Kray," Materials on the Hunting and
Norms of the Taking of Ungulates, Moscow, Nauka.
10. Yazan, Yu. P. 1975. "Principles of Regulating the
Norms and Terms of Taking Ungulates," Moscow,
Nauka.
11. Perovskiy, M. D. 1975. "On the Efficient Utilization of
the Elk Stock," Moscow, Nauka.
12. Bannikov, A. G., Zhirnov, L. V., Lebedeva, L. S.,
Fadeyev, A. A. 1961. Biology of the Saiga, Moscow,
Izdatel'stvo sel'skokhozyaystvennoy literatury.
13. Lavov, M. A., Bulavkin, V.I., Voronova, T. N. 1975.
"Economic Utilization of Ungulates in Northern
Krasnoyarskiy Kray," Moscow, Nauka.
14. Chistyakov, M. 1975. "The Hunt Has Begun," Okhota
i okhotnich'ye khozyaystvo, 8, pp. 1-2.
15. Larin, B. A. 1970. "The Efficient Exploitation and Re-
production of Reserves of Commercially Valuable
Animals," in the book The Study of Hunting, volume
1, 1970.
16. Naumov, N. P., Lobachev, V. S., Dmitriyev, P. R.,
Smirin, V. M. 1972. The Natural Plague Hotbed in
Priaral'skiye Karakumy, Moscow, Izdatel'stvo MGU.
17. Nikol'skiy, G. V. 1965. Theory of the Dynamics of the
School of Fish, Moscow, Nauka.
18. Il'yanko, A. I. 1974. The Concentration by Animals
of Radioisotopes and Their Influence on the Population,
Moscow, Nauka.
19. H'yenko, A.I., Isayev, S. I., Ryabstev, I. A. 1974. "Radi-
ation Sensitivity of Some Species of Small Mammals
and the Possibility of Adaptation of Rodent Populations
to Artificial Contamination of the Biogeocenosis With
Strontium 90," Radiobiology, 14, 4, pp. 572-575.
20. Nizhnik, G. V., Mazheykite, R. B., Il'yenko, A. L,
Ryabtsev, I. A. 1975. "The Study of the Radiation
Sensitivity of Populations of Wild Species of Small
Rodents Inhabitating Sectors With an Increased Level
of Ionizing Radiation," Moscow, Nauka (in press).
21. Tikhomirov, F. A. 1972. The Effect of Ionizing Radi-
ations on Ecological Systems, Moscow, Atomizdat.
22. Il'yenko, A. I. 1975. "The Interrelation of Vertebrate
Populations With a Biogeocenosis Contaminated With
Radioactive Substances," in the book Radioecology of
Vertebrates, Moscow, Nauka (in press).
40
-------
EXTRAPOLATION OF ANIMAL DATA TO HUMAN RESPONSE:
AN ASSESSMENT OF THE FACTORS INVOLVED
THOMAS J. HALEY
INTRODUCTION
When the subject of extrapolation of animal data
to human experience is discussed, one is confronted
with a multitude of problems, all of which impinge
on the validity of the data being extrapolated. What
were the experimental conditions, and, was the ex-
perimental design well thought out prior to the initia-
tion of the evaluation? It rapidly becomes evident
that very few cases are available in which previ-
ously determined animal data indicated a possible
human hazard from environmental dispersion of a
known chemical entity. The opposite is usually the
case where cancer or some other debilitating or fatal
condition is first observed in a human population and
animal experimentation serves to confirm the hazards
associated with such environmental exposures. To
further complicate the situation, the degree of ex-
posure and the amount absorbed per unit time are
rarely known in most cases of human exposure to
potent environmental chemicals. While the physical
condition of an experimental animal population is
generally known in great detail, that of the human
population is often complicated by known or un-
known degrees of physical impairment of important
body systems.
The purpose of this discussion is to review and
place in perspective the various factors involved in
extrapolation studies and determine those which
complicate our extrapolations and those which might
make it possible to forecast possible human hazards
prior to their appearance. However, we must con-
sider the fact that environmental exposures in their
totality generally involve exposures to multiple
chemicals simultaneously rather than a single entity
and the sorting out of all contributing factors can
be an enormous task. Factors to be considered in-
clude: chemical and its physical state (liquid, solid,
particles, gas, etc.), route of exposure (gastrointes-
tinal, dermal, pulmonary), rate of absorption, routes
of biotransformation, active and inactive metabolites,
pharmacokinetic considerations, body distribution
and storage, age, physical state (health or illness),
routes of elimination and unforeseen events. Means
for determining exposure and industrial hygenic
practices which assist in assessing the degree of
exposure and preventing exposure will also be cov-
ered. Selected chemicals known to be involved in
environmental exposures will be utilized to illustrate
how the above factors become active and assist in
extrapolation studies.
INTERPLAY OF THE VARIOUS FACTORS
It would be nice to separate each of the factors,
but in reality they are so intermingled that they must,
in general, be discussed together. A prime example
is exposure to asbestos where both man and animals
develop mesothelioma of the lungs and peritoneum
from inhalation exposure. Particle size is all impor-
tant because only particles of <3ju in diameter and
>20^a in length are more carcinogenic than other
particles. Time is also important because animals
require exposures of up to two years before pul-
monary carcinoma is evident, while humans develop
the disease after 15 to 20 years. Nothing is known
regarding the development of gastrointestinal cancer
from oral ingestion of asbestos by either animals or
man although potable water supplies have been
shown to be highly contaminated with asbestos fibers.
Research in this area should allow a good extrapola-
tion of animal data because the degree of contamina-
tion and the particle sizes are known, as is the
time interval of exposure.
Another example of environmental exposure via
the pulmonary route is the development of hepatic
angiosarcoma in animals and man from inhalation of
vinyl chloride. Viola's original animal experiments
showed liver carcinoma after prolonged exposure to
30,000 ppm of vinyl cholride, but it was only after
similar cancers appeared in a small number of vinyl
chloride workers that the problem received serious
consideration. Again, we were dealing with a con-
centration/time effect where the amount of vinyl
chloride in the environment was unknown. Subse-
quent animal experiments showed that prolonged
exposure to 25 to 50 ppm of vinyl chloride resulted
in the development of hepatic angiosarcoma.
Benzidine is another chemical with a long history
of problems from an environmental standpoint. The
41
-------
first human chemically induced bladder carcinoma
was reported in 1895 but it required many years of
research to positively identify benzidine as one of
the causative agents. Extrapolation from animals to
man was not possible in the early years because
there was no animal model. Benzidine induced blad-
der carcinoma was first seen in dogs fed the material
for 7 years. Other animal species do not develop
such tumors. This is peculiar because all other
related chemicals, i.e., 4-aminobiphenyl, known to
induce urinary bladder cancer in man also produces
it in the mouse. Furthermore, human exposures are
via the pulmonary and dermal routes rather than by
ingestion, except in the case of the Japanese kimono
painters who develop the disease from "pointing"
their brushes while applying benzidine dyes to fab-
rics. The age factor has been found to operate in
the development of benzidine bladder carcinoma;
those exposed before age 30 years develop the con-
dition earlier than those exposed later in life. This
may, in part, be related to the chemical's long induc-
tion period.
The dermal route of exposure allows extrapola-
tion from animal data to the expected human
response but, here again, caution must be observed
in interpretation of the data because animal skin and
human skin are not the same. Moreover, human
skin differs in chemical penetrability depending on
the area exposed with axillary and inguinal areas
giving the most rapid chemical absorption. This is
of extreme importance in environmental exposure to
anticholinesterase pesticides. However, the chemical
itself may influence the rate of dermal absorption.
Carbaryl shows a high absorbability on the palm of
the hand, a skin area known for its low penetrability.
High ambient temperatures can also increase skin
penetration by environmental chemicals and cause
varying degrees of intoxication. Data are given in
Tables 1 and 2.
TABLE 2. RATIO COMPARING VARIOUS SITES
TO FOREARM
Forearm
Palm
Foot, ball
Abdomen
Hand dorsum
Scalp
law angle
Forehead
Axilla
Scrotum
Parathion
1.0
1.3
1.6
2.1
2.4
3.7
3.9
4.2
7.4
11.8
Malathion
1.0
0.9
1.0
1.4
1.8
3.4
4.2
Hydrocortisone
1.0
0.8
3.5
13.0
6.0
3.6
42.0
FACTORS INFLUENCING THE RATE OF
ABSORPTION
As has already been discussed, environmental
chemicals enter the body via the lungs, gastrointes-
tinal tract and skin, and each of the portals of entry
exhibit different rates of absorption related to known
mechanisms of transport. Simple diffusion transports
many substances through cell membranes. The thick-
ness of cell membrane (ca. 100 A) and the diameters
of the pores in cell membranes (4 to 40 A) regulate
the size of molecule or micelle that can be moved
into or out of cells. Even water soluble chemicals of
molecular weights of 100 or more cannot pass into
erythrocytes. The ionized portion usually does not
pass through the cell membrane and its distribution
is governed by its pKa value, the pH gradient and
active transport. This produces a difference in con-
centration on each side of the membrane. The
nonionized portion, being lipid soluble, is able to
pass the cell membrane.
Active transport, which requires energy and en-
zymatic activity, can cause chemicals to enter cells
selectively against an electrochemical or osmotic
gradient. Such transport can be blocked by metabolic
inhibitors. This is very important where environment
exposure involves multiple chemical entities and may
TABLE 1.
EFFECT OF ANATOMIC REGION ON ABSORPTION OF TOPICAL 14C MALATHION
AND CARBARYL (URINARY «C EXCRETION EXPRESSED AS PERCENT APPLIED DOSE)*
Excretion
Anatomic Region
Forearm
Palm
Foot, ball
Abdomen
Hand dorsum
Forehead
Axilla
Carbaryl
forearm
Jaw angle
Hours
0-4
0.176
0.133
0.361
0.138
1.199
1.660
2.313
0.21
4.43
4-8
1.557
0.629
0.255
2.618
2.732
6.994
12.351
4.85
11.30
8-12
1.647
1.061
0.269
2.774
3.135
4.358
5.380
12.11
14.61
12-24
2.186
1.867
1.082
1.965
3.357
6.077
4.556
23.33
10.91
2
0.767
1.147
2.757
1.191
1.065
1.816
2.014
20.49
12.83
Days
3
0.232
0.431
1.320
0.388
0.371
1.002
0.978
6.65
6.19
4
0.128
0.321
0.491
0.194
0.314
0.496
0.768
3.70
4.43
Total Excretion
5
0.142
0.236
0.249
0.155
0.291
0.774
0.299
2.54
5.17
This Experiment
6.838 ± 2.312
5.828 ± 2.913
6.787 ± 3.237
9.377 ± 7.947
12.466 ± 3.956
23.179 ± 9.139
28.662 ± 13.743
73.91 ± 21.03
69.91 ± 19.55
Forearm
Control
6.838
6.838
6.838
6.838
6.838
6.838
6.838
Ratio
1.0
0.9
1.0
1.4
1.8
3.4
4.2
*The dose was 4 «g/sq. m. All data are corrected for incomplete urinary recovery from the intravenous control data. Six subjects were
involved in each experiment.
42
-------
aid in explaining the aberrant results often reported
in the literature. Facilitated diffusion is carrier trans-
port which shows selectivity, saturability and block-
ade by metabolic inhibitors but does not move a
chemical against a gradient. Solubility and concen-
tration of a chemical in tissue fluids are determining
factors in the rate of absorption, as are the area
of the absorbing surface, richness of the capillary bed
and route of exposure. It must be borne in mind that
solubility in tissue fluids does not follow the usual
form of solubility in aqueous or organic solvent
because tissue fluids are mixtures whose overall com-
position assists in dissolving many chemicals usually
considered insoluble.
Pulmonary absorption is usually extremely rapid
because of the large absorbing surface and the
richness of the capillary bed. Furthermore the
pulmonary macrophages can facilitate absorption of
insoluble particulates by phagocytosis. Pulmonary
irritation can facilitate absorption or decrease it,
depending upon the degree of irritation, mucous
secretion, ciliary activity or paralysis and the various
pulmonary reflexes which can be activated. The con-
centration of gas, aerosol or particulate is also
important. Gastrointestinal absorption is extremely
variable and is influenced by solubility, formation of
food complexes, susceptibility to enzymatic action,
gastric emptying time and the irritability of the
particular chemical. The rate of absorption via the
dermal route is even more variable, depending upon
the chemical, its lipid solubility and the solvent used
as a carrier.
ROUTES OF BIOTRANSFORMATION
Whereas many chemicals may not require activa-
tion by body tissues, a large variety of environmental
chemicals must be activated by liver, kidney, lung or
other tissue microsomal enzymes. Moreover, the
environmental mixture may contain body enzyme
inducers (DDT, methylcholanthrene, etc.) or
inhibitors (piperonylbutoxide). Age also plays an
important role in chemical transformation; the very
young must develop the necessary enzymes and the
elderly have lower levels of enzymatic activity. Fe-
males tend to metabolize chemicals at different rates
than males and in some species and strains of animals,
vital enzymes may be missing. This becomes im-
portant in the selection of animal models for approxi-
mating expected human responses to environmental
chemical exposure. Genetic differences, both animal
and human, can produce profound effects on bio-
transformation pathways. There are only eleven
known mechanisms for biotransformation of chemi-
cals and the most important ones are oxidation,
reduction and conjugation. The reactions are in-
fluenced by body temperature with low temperatures
TABLE 3. SUMMARY OF BENZIDINE BIOTRANS-
FORMATION IN VARIOUS SPECIES
Species
Metabolites
Mouse Monoacetylated 3-OH ethereal sulfate
Monoacetylated 3-OH glucuronide
N-Hydrogen sulfate and/or glucuronide
3-OH-Benzidine glucuronide
Rat 3,3'-Dihydroxybenzidine (?)
4'-Acetamido-4-amino-3-diphenylyl hydrogen
sulfate
4'-Amino-4-diphenylyl sulfamic acid
4'-Acetamido-4-diphenylyl sulfamic acid
Guinea Pig 4'-Acetamido-4-aminodiphenyl Nl glucuronide
4'-Acetamido-4-amino-3-diphenylyl hydrogen
sulfate
Rabbit 3'-OH-Benzidine sulfate and glucuronide
4'-Acetamido-4-amino-3-diphenylyl hydrogen
sulfate
4'-Amino-4-diphenylyl sulfamic acid
N-Glucuronides
4'-Acetamido-4-aminodiphenyl
3-OH-Benzidine
Dog 3-OH-Benzidine
3-OH-Benzidine hydrogen sulfate
4-Amino-4-hydroxybiphenyl
Mono- and diacetylbenzidine
4,4'-Diamino-3-diphenyl sulfate and glucuronide
Monkey Monoacetylbenzidine
Man 3,3'-Dihydroxybenzidine (?)
Mono- and diacetylbenzidine
3-OH-Benzidine
N-Hydroxy acetylaminobenzidine
reducing and high ones increasing their rates. A
reduction in enzyme protein will reduce enzyme
concentration and thus decrease the rate of chemical
conversion. Here again it is evident that the interplay
of many factors determines both the animal and
human responses to environmental chemicals. More-
over, the various species biotransformations of a
given chemical may differ by several orders of mag-
nitude. It has been suggested that short term in vitro
biotransformation experiments may give clues to
human responses. While the animal data obtained
may indicate the possible active metabolites, it would
be disastrous to conclude that a given chemical is
transformed in the same manner by all species. This
is illustrated by the metabolic end products for
benzidine shown in Table 3. On the other hand, the
biotransformation of vinyl chloride, which involves
an epioxidation step (Figure 1), appears to be similar
for all species. An increase in urinary mercapturic
acid following exposure to vinyl chloride indicates
the loss of hepatic glutathtione and subsequent
toxicity to hepatocytes resulting in hepatic angiosar-
coma. Monitoring of urinary excretion of ethereal
sulfate, glucuronide and free phenol can give an
indication of the severity of exposure to benzene and
a warning that the liver and kidneys have been
damaged. Liver and kidney impairment also can
43
-------
I II
-CIC^H-CH-
Vinyl ~ 0 Phlnrn
chloride Chloroethyleneoxideacetcy^;°ehyde
-CICH2-CHO
Trapped aldehyde
V
/CHCH2OH
5
Postulated but not identified
Alternate pathway - spontaneous rearrangement
of II to III
Figure 1. Biotransformation of vinyl chloride by mixed
function oxygenase.
have a profound effect on the biotransformation
and elimination of environmental chemicals. Thus
chemical exposure at low levels can result in both
acute and chronic toxicity which can end fatally even
though the exposure levels may be below those
generally considered to be hazardous.
PHARMACOKINETIC CONSIDERATIONS
The pharmacokinetic study of environmental
chemicals has not received the attention it deserves
either in animals or man. The measurement of the
rate of absorption, tissue distribution and binding,
storage (i.e., fat depots), metabolism and elimination
must be undertaken if a thorough knowledge of
chemical attack and attachment to receptor sites is
to be obtained. Unbound plasma levels can be di-
rectly related to the level of agent reaching such
sites, except with those chemicals producing an
irreversible binding or those which require activation
prior to binding. A good correlation between rate
of absorption, plasma level and urinary excretion can
usually be established and such correlations can be
used to establish an approximation of tissue storage.
Pharmacokinetic studies may indicate that additional
substituent group(s) have changed the biotransforma-
tion mechanism, tissue storage and elimination. Such
studies on 3,3'-dichlorobenzidine showed that only
1 % of the administered dose was eliminated via the
urinary pathway in 15 days and tissue concentration
could not account for the balance. However, chemical
levels in body fat stores were not measured. Thus
it would appear that chlorination of benzidine may
have changed body storage and resulted in an aromatic
amine behaving like an organochlorine compound.
A similar situation has been observed with diiso-
propyl fluorophosphate where the primary target
organ is acetylcholine enterase and the secondary one
is the brain neurotoxic esterase. The result of enzyme
inhibition is a peripheral neuropathy with demye-
lination followed by loss of function in the limbs
similar to that originally reported from ingestion of
o-tricresylphosphate. Pharmacokinetic studies can
determine the degree and time course of cholin-
esterase inhibition and recovery and in vitro studies
can give similar information on chicken brain neuro-
toxic esterase, but only nerve condition studies can
give information on developing delayed neurotoxicity
in humans prior to clinical manifestation of the
disease. In this instance, animal studies can act as a
preventative of human disease. All newly developed
organophosphate pesticides should be studied in this
manner prior to introduction into the environment.
Another environmental contaminant which could be
subjected to a pharmacokinetic study is vinyl
chloride. Working area and workers could be studied
under almost ideal conditions where quantitative
atmospheric contamination and blood and urine
concentrations might give a better insight into ab-
sorption and excretion. Animal studies would enable
definitive correlations to be established between ani-
mal and human responses.
PHYSICAL STATES
In any study of a new or old environmental chem-
ical the animals are rigorously checked and main-
tained, whereas humans exposed to such chemicals
usually suffer from various degrees of physical im-
pairment, i.e., hypertension, diabetes, etc. The use
of healthy animals under such circumstances can
result in data which cannot be extrapolated to man.
It is imperative that animal studies be initiated to
ascertain the effects of such impairments on overall
responses. In addition, exposures to more than one
environmental contaminant, particularly those which
affect different body systems, could generate data
which would have greater application to human
responses. Studies with aged animals could also bring
into focus the possible responses to be expected in
aging humans, particularly the influence of lower
levels on environmental contamination in situations
where biotransformation enzyme activities have
decreased and there is a partial impairment in excre-
tory function.
THE ASSESSMENT OF EXPOSURE AND ITS
PREVENTION
In any extrapolation of animal data to human
experience, it is essential that the degree of actual
human response be assessed in terms of available
animal information concerning time-concentration of
the chemical involved. Where air and water an-
alyses are done on a continuing basis, the degree of
human exposure is readily obtainable. A similar
situation occurs in occupational exposures where
44
-------
continuous monitoring has been instituted, as in vinyl
chloride plants. Such monitoring has the added
advantage of determining those instances in which
"peaking" occurs, resulting in a far higher concen-
tration of chemical than normally is present in the
ambient atmosphere. Equipment leaks which grad-
ually increase the toxicant concentration can also be
detected. Animal data are not available because
research has not covered this area although episodes
have been recorded where humans have been
subjected to such exposures.
Probably the largest area of environmental con-
tamination to which humans are exposed is local and
area wide air pollution related to the operation of
the internal combustion engine and/or various indus-
tries such as steel making, power generation, etc. A
large number of the chemical entities are gaseous
(SO2, SO3,O3, NOX, CO) and particulate (benzpyrene,
fly ash, etc.) and they are monitored on. a continuing
basis and reported as daily pollution indices. Here
again it was human exposure with its pulmonary ef-
fects and eye irritation which stimulated animal re-
search to determine the effects produced by known
concentrations of gaseous pollutants, the influence of
particulates on the response and, finally, the effects
of combinations of pollutants or UV irradiated auto-
mobile exhaust on both eye irritation and pulmonary
function. The animal data closely paralleled that
obtained on humans. "Normal" humans may or may
not respond to low levels of air pollution but
physically impaired humans (asthmatics, cardio-pul-
monary case, etc.) are readily affected. Morbidity
and mortality statistics indicate the highest levels of
adverse responses occur the week after acute ex-
posures as in the London air pollution episode of
1952. Ambient temperature can also complicate the
situation as was observed in Los Angeles in 1954
where unseasonally high ambient temperatures
increased the death rate in nursing homes having
cardio-pulmonary patients.
Occupational exposure to chemicals can be con-
trolled and decreased by good industrial hygienic
practices, respirators, protective clothing and closed
systems. The use of action levels of a given chemical
in ambient air causing monitoring of employees in
the area should assist in reducing overall occupational
in urinary-excreted, naturally present chemicals and
assist in preventing new vinyl chloride-like episodes
before they become complete disasters. Also moni-
toring employees for changes in body fluids, changes
in urinary-excreted, naturally present chemicals and
radiographic tissue changes would also be of assis-
tance. Examples include A-aminolevulinic acid
excretion or aminolevulinic synthetase in blood from
lead exposure and Raynaud's syndrome, scleroderma
and acroosteolysis from vinyl chloride exposure.
Warnings of such changes would indicate action to
prevent more disastrous events such as encephalophy
or cancer. However, a rational approach must be
employed, otherwise economic dislocation will ensue
or the suggested cure may be worse than the situa-
tion it is set up to correct.
Another area for consideration in both prevention
and anticipation of future episodes involving environ-
mental chemicals is the existing literature covering
experimental animals and clinical research data.
Reviews of existing material should indicate areas
requiring additional work for clarifying possible
problems. Epidemiology of selected populations
could indicate areas of concern and suggest remedies.
CONCLUSIONS
The problems associated with the extrapolation of
animal data to human responses have been discussed
with the view to making such extrapolations more
accurate and areas of research have been suggested
to assist in the process. The multiplicity of the
systems involved make the problem difficult but not
insurmountable. Cooperation of the scientists of the
USA and the USSR is essential if progress is to be
made and human life improved through carefully
conducted environmental research.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Alvares, A. P., Leigh, S., Kappas, A., Levin, W. and
Conney, A. H., Induction of aryl hydrocarbon hydroxylase
in human skin. Drug Metabol. Disp. 1, 386-390 (1973).
Cavanagh, J. B., Peripheral neuropathy caused by chem-
ical agents. Critical Rev. Toxicol. 2, 365-417 (1973).
Coburn, R. F. (ed.), Biological effects of carbon monox-
ide. Ann. Y. Y. Acad. Sci. 174, 430 (1970).
Gillette, J. R., A perspective on the role of chemically
reactive metabolites of foreign compounds in toxicity. I.
Correlation of changes in covalent binding of reactive
metabolites with changes in the incidence and severity of
toxicity. Biochem. Pharmacol. 23, 2785-2794 (1974).
Haley, T. J., Asbestosis, A reassessment of the overall
problem. J. Pharm. Sci. in press.
Haley, T. J., Benzidine Revisited: A review of the litera-
ture and problems associated with the use of benzidine and
its congeners. Clin. Toxicol. 8, 13-42 (1974).
Haley, T. J., Vinyl Chloride, How many unknown prob-
lems? J. Toxicol. Environ. Health, in press.
Hucker, H. B., Intermediates in drug metabolism reac-
tions. Drug Metab. Rev. 2, 33-56 (1973).
Jerina, D. M. and Daly, J. W., Arene Oxides: A new
aspect of drug metabolism. Science 185, 573-582 (1974).
Johnson, M. K., The delayed neuropathy caused by some
organophosphorus esters: Mechanism and challenge. Crit-
ical Revs. Toxicol. 3, 289-316 (1975).
Kriek, E., Carcinogenesis by aromatic amines. Biochim.
Biophy. Acta. 355, 177-203 (1974).
Maibach, H. I., Feldmann, R. J., Milby, T. H. and Serat,
W. P., Regional variation in percutaneous penetration in
man. Arch. Environ. Hlth. 23, 208-211 (1971).
Mitchell, J. R., Jollow, D. J. and Gillette, J. R., Relation-
ship between metabolism of foreign compounds and liver
injury. Israel J. Med. Sci. 10, 339-345 (1974).
45
-------
Mitchell, J. and Jollows, D. J., Metabolic activation of
drugs to toxic substances. Gastroenterology 68, 392-410
(1975).
Murphy, S. D., Leng, J. K., Ulrich, C. E. and Davis, H. V.
Effects on animals of exposure to auto exhaust. Arch. En-
viron. Hlth. 7, 60-70 (1963).
Reid, W. D., Kirshna, G., Gillette, J. R. and Brodie, B. B.,
Biochemical mechanism of hepatic necrosis induced by aro-
matic hydrocarbons. Pharmacology 10, 193-214 (1973).
Schreiber, E. C., Metabolic oxygenated compounds: For-
mation, conjugation, and possible biological implications.
J. Pharm. Sci. 63, 1177-1190 (1974).
Sereni, F., Morselli, P. L. and Pardi, G., Postnatal devel-
opment of drug metabolism in human infants. Third Euro-
pean Congress of Perinatal Medicine, Lausanne, Switzerland,
April, 1972.
Speizer, F., Epidemiologic appraisal of particulate matter,
oxides of sulfur and sulfuric acid. J. Air Pollut. Control
Assoc. 19, 647-655 (1969).
Sterling, T. O., Phair, J. J., Pollack, S. V., Schumsky,
D. A. and DeGroote, I., Urban morbidity and air pollution.
A first report. Arch. Environ. Hlth. 13, 158-170 (1966).
Treon, J. F., Dutra, F. R., Cappel, J., Sigmon, H., and
Younker, W., Toxicity of sulfuric acid mist. Arch. Ind.
Hyg. Occ. Med. 2, 716-734 (1950).
Uehleke, H., The role of cytochrome P-450 in the N-oxi-
dation of individual amines. Drug Metabol. Disp. 1, 299-
313 (1973).
Vesell, E. S., Introduction: genetic and environmental
factors affecting drug responses in man. Fed. Proc. 31,
1253-1269 (1972).
Weir, F. W., Stevens, D. H. and Bomberg, P. A., Pul-
monary function studies of men exposed for 120 hours to
sulfur dioxide. Toxicol. Appl. Pharmacol. 22, 319 (1972).
46
-------
DETERMINATION OF CRITERIA OF HARMLESS CHEMICAL
EFFECTS ON THE HUMAN ORGANISM AND THE PROBLEM
OF PERMISSIBLE LOADING
A. P. SHITSKOVA
Intensive industrialization and urbanization have
to an ever greater degree led to the pollution of the
biosphere with chemical compounds which to a
greater or lesser extent can have a negative effect on
the organism of man, population, ecosystem and the
biosphere as a whole.
Under these conditions it is particularly important
to define the criteria and methods permitting the
objective exposure of their unfavorable impact on
man and various biological systems for the purpose
of developing both collective intergovernmental as
well as regional (within the framework of individual
countries and regions) safety measures as well as
measures to avert the accumulation of dangerous
levels of toxic substances in the biosphere. Objec-
tively assessing the growth of environmental pollu-
tion, we believe it to be groundless to view the
demands of certain researchers of the possibility of
going back to the so-called "natural conditions."
Without mentioning the fact that such a "return"
would deprive us of the possibility of enjoying the
benefits of civilization which mankind has acquired
in the process of its development, we know that even
the "natural conditions" are not always a guarantee
for the health of man. For example, an area with an
imbalance in the content of certain microelements
(iodine, fluorine and other substances), naturally
heightened radioactive background and other natural
conditions, have an unfavorable impact on health.
We also cannot agree with those who strive to
orient themselves to the technical possibilities existing
in each specific case.
In our country an extremely realistic concept has
been developed in this regard. It was clearly formu-
lated by Leonid Il'ich Brezhnev, the general secretary
of the CC CPSU, in his report to the 24th party con-
gress. He stated: "In adopting measures to accelerate
scientific and technical progress it is necessary to do
everything so that it would be combined with an
economic attitude toward natural resources, and
would not serve as a source of dangerous air and
water pollution and depletion of the earth." Increas-
ing pollution of the environment cannot be viewed
as an inevitable result of the scientific and technical
revolution. In the Soviet Union, as in other coun-
tries there are many examples vividly illustrating the
possibility of developing wasteless technology, utiliz-
ing industrial waste which previously was discharged
into reservoirs, air and food products.
The basis of these measures in the USSR is formed
by scientifically determined hygienic requirements
and regulations assuring optimum relations of man
and the population as a whole with the environment.
In principle, without excluding the possibility of
developing ecological norms or loads as a whole or
for individual systems of the biosphere in the USSR
primarily scientific criteria of individual factors of the
environment (water, air, air in the workers' zone,
food and others) were worked out guaranteeing the
optimum conditions for man's life and work.
In a paper at the preceding symposium devoted to
the "Comprehensive Analysis of the Environment"
(in 1974 in Tbilisi, USSR) we dwelt on the concept
of the hygienic norming of toxic substances and other
factors of the environment accepted in our country.
In determining the criteria of safety — the maxi-
mum permissible concentrations (MFC) (or what is
synonymous — the maximum permissible loads)
of toxic substances, we proceeded from the under-
standing that the MFC must not disturb the requi-
site physiological balance between the organism and
the environment or during prolonged impact assure
the maintenance of the complete health of the popu-
lation and favorable sanitary conditions of its life.
The theoretical base when establishing the hygienic
norms is the dialectical-materialistic teaching of the
threshold of all types of actions of toxins (including
the blastomogenic and others). Therefore, at the
basis of the health standard setting (when establishing
the MFC) along with a study of the limiting indices
for the environment lies the principle of defining the
threshold of damaging impact. As the threshold we
accept that minimum concentration or dose of the
substance in the environment under the effects of
47
-------
which the organism changes with certain conditions of
its injection, which exceed the bounds of physio-
logically adaptive reactions and a temporarily com-
pensating pathology sets in.
The objective evaluation of the biological threat
of chemical compounds is based on the results of
experimental studies conducted on various types of
laboratory animals. For the purpose of unification
of the methods employed to elicit the minimum
effects of the biological action of the chemical com-
pounds, a plan has been worked out for carrying out
studies, the selection of laboratory animals, types of
interactions of the organism and pollutants under
study, the sequence for the conduct of acute and
subacute experiments and indices required for elicit-
ing the minimum effects, consideration of the experi-
mental toxicological and hygienic studies, and so on.
The single basis for all studies promoted the obtain-
ing and accumulation of comparable data. This also
with time assures the possibility of reaching theo-
retical conclusions permitting a more precise forecast
of the results and nature of the effect of the substance.
Despite certain differences in the methodological
approach in calculating the damage from the actions
of the chemical compounds on the organism in vari-
ous media (air in a workers' zone, air, water in a
reservoir, in food and others) the principles and
methods for calculating the minimum effects of the
pollutants are alike in many ways. All of them
envisage a three-stage experimental study on the
animals: 1st stage, acute experiments; 2nd stage,
intermediate (repeated) experiments (1 to 2 months);
and the 3rd stage, chronic (3 to 6 months and longer)
experiments.
The studies employ adequate, highly sensitive
physiological, biochemical, toxicological and other
methods. Relying on the arsenal of the achievements
of current biology and medicine, studies are con-
ducted on the nature of impact of the chemical
compounds on the organism of the test animals as a
whole and on their individual organs and systems.
Among these particular attention is devoted to the
central nervous system (including a study of the
bioelectric mosaic of the brain and the subcortical
formations), the cardiovascular system, enzyme
spectrum and, in particular, the organospecific
enzymes. The use of varied methods and tests
permits the discovery of the slightest and earliest
changes in the functional state of the organism short
of the threshold harmful action of the substance.
Along with this studies are conducted with volun-
teers as well as epidemiological studies, observations
of people under natural conditions. It should be
noted that a specially conducted study of the
question of the possibility of a "transmission" to
man of data obtained in experiments with animals
showed that the experimentally substantiated values,
as a rule, protect man to a sufficient degree from the
unfavorable effects of chemical compounds.
In setting up the experiments significant value was
assigned to elicit primary effects of the actions of
toxic substances (in acute and subacute experiments)
and particular attention was devoted to a determina-
tion of the cumulative properties. By these properties
we mean an acceleration of the action of the toxin
during its repeated intake by the organism as a result
of the accumulation of the active toxic substance
(material cumulation) or the summation of trace
reactions resulting from the impact of the substance
(functional cumulation).
The cumulative action of the chemical compounds
is conditioned by the combination of the processes
of absorption, distribution, accumulation and con-
version of toxins entering the organism.
The value of the introduced dose and the time
factor play a significant role in the evaluation of the
cumulative effect.
The state of accumulation includes the combina-
tion of the elements of "breakdown" and adaptive
stress of the functions of the organism.
Moreover, we differentiate the stages of true
physiological adaptation to changed conditions of the
external medium from the stage of latent compensa-
tory pathology. In order to differentiate these stages
we normally employ so-called functional load tests
(alcohol load, hexenal sleep, hypothermia, determina-
tion of working capacity, time of restoration to
straight line movement following rotation in a
centrifuge, electronic action on the cerebral cortex).
In addition to adaptation there may be another
phenomenon which is the state of acclimatization.
At the same time the organism develops resistance,
there is a heightened resistance to the action of the
toxin, the absence or decrease of shifts in the state
of the organism. According to present day concepts
the state of acclimatization must be evaluated as the
first phase of intoxication.
Questions of accumulation, adaptation and accli-
matization are of great importance in hygienic norm
setting since the definition of these effects permits a
more precise selection of the coefficient of reserves
when establishing the MFC.
In our report we have dwelt in detail on studies
to find the primary effects and cumulation because
at the present time a plan is being worked out at the
Moscow Institute of Hygiene im. F. F. Erisman for
an accelerated joint experiment to establish orienta-
tion values for MFC in the atmosphere, reservoir
water, in the air of a workers' zone and food
products.
Moreover, we devote particular attention to study-
ing the phases of the reaction, their direction, defini-
48
-------
tion of adaptation, acclimatization and cumulation.
Obtaining the orientation values of the MFC plays
an important role in determining the forecast of the
biological action of new chemical substances in our
environment.
The multiplicity of chemical compounds circulat-
ing in the environment predetermines the inevit-
ability of the combined, that is, sum of substances
and complex action of them on the organism of man
(during inhalation, perorally, through the skin).
The complexity of the evaluation of the mechanism
of biological action of the mixture of chemical com-
pounds depends on many factors. Integrally the
effect can manifest itself as antagonistic, or synergetic
or additive. This question was reported on by us in
detail at the previous symposium (USSR, Tbilisi,
1974). At that time we remarked that the summary
effect is observed most frequently. The degree of
danger from the combined action of cnemical com-
pounds possessing the summary effect can be calcu-
lated by using a formula where the sum of the ratios
of the true concentrations of chemical compounds
to their MFC for example in atmospheric air must
not exceed one.
The principle difference from the combined action
is the complex effect as a result of the features of the
biological effects with various ways for the substances
to enter the organism. In this case the sequence of
the intake of substances (peroral or inhalation) may
be of great significance. Under the effect of chemical
compounds in concentrations at the threshold level
of chronic action, during the complex intake by the
organism of substances perorally, or by inhaling, as
well as in the majority of cases with the combined
substances, we observe a summation of biological
effects. Therefore, the total quantity of chemical
compounds which can enter the organism of man
from various media must not exceed the maximum
permissible dose for man.
In recent years much attention has been devoted
to a study of individual consequences of contact by
man with chemical substances to set hygienic norms.
Therefore, during the health standard setting of
toxic substances methods are employed characterizing
chromosome and mutations which according to the
data of our institute can appear as early as in the
first generation. Disturbance of the genetic balance
represents a grave danger.
Of particular interest is the influence of chemical
substances on the generative functions of the organism
(embryo-gonadotoxic and teratogenic effects) and the
appearance of blastomogenic activity. Remote con-
sequences can also affect changes in the cardio-vas-
cular system. In order to find these consequences
specific methodological methods of investigation are
developed. For example, in evaluating the cancero-
genic activity of substances use is made of the trans-
plantation method of investigation.
The hygienic norms (MFC) established in this
manner on the basis of comprehensive studies, at
the level of inactive subthreshold values are con-
firmed by state agencies and then become obligatory
for all institutions, enterprises, design organizations
as well as for current sanitary and preventive control.
In this manner a reliable system is set up to protect
the population against the harmful effects of chemical
compounds entering the environment. The MFC
permits the establishment of a biologically justified
standard of man's environment and also promotes
the creation of favorable sanitary conditions for a
healthy existence inasmuch as during health standard
setting it is necessary to take into consideration the
effect of the substances on the state of the environ-
ment. For example, smell of water, turbidity, color,
self-purification in the reservoir and others.
Our methods have been recognized internationally.
For example, the MFC developed in the USSR
for water in reservoirs in areas where water is used
by the population are published by WHO. At the
same time we know that in certain countries the
basis of regulations for the quality of the environ-
ment is formed by the principle of maximum
acceptable concentrations or concepts of acceptable
risk which we do not share.
In recent years the attention of investigators has
been drawn to the problem of the establishment of
permissible loads in the broadest sense of the
word, beginning with the individual biological sys-
tems and to the biosphere as a whole. This question
is of great theoretical interest; however, in develop-
ing permissible loads for man it must be based on
the principle of health standard setting. Along with
the extensive positive experience from the effort to
establish maximum permissible doses (loads) at the
present time there naturally arise a number -of im-
portant new questions from the point of "view of
theory and practice.
For example, in determining the MFC (or maxi-
mum permissible loads) of chemical compounds
importance is ascribed to the discovery of such
quantitative indices as the value of accumulation,
removal of substances from the organism, results of
conversions and others. For this purpose we now
employ so-called exposition methods (exposition
tests). As experimental research has shown they
permit the establishment of a specific correlation
between the excretion of certain substances (lead,
mercury, manganese) with urine and the level of their
concentrations in the inhaled air, however, this cor-
relation is disturbed when examining individuals.
Apparently, the use of expository test samples for
the purpose of setting the permissible loads requires
49
-------
further clarification including numerous epidemic-
logical and clinical-laboratory examinations.
It would be logical as well to have at hand precise
data on the values of the toxic substances which can
"settle" in the organism, their distribution and dy-
namics of accumulation depending on the dose, time
of action and other conditions.
Of vast importance as well is the definition of the
"critical" organ where the basic portion of the toxin
accumulates, or where it is absent.
Of particular significance is the study of the inter-
mittent action of the chemical compounds during
complex and combined entry into the organism.
In summing up, the results state that the establish-
ment of MFC (loads) on the organism of man
requires a necessary calculation of the threshold,
cumulative properties of the substances, adaptive
abilities of the organism, the possibility of combined
and complex action, remote results as well as sub-
stance parameters which, in the organism or critical
organ, do not over a period of many years change
the state of health and do not have a negative effect
following the impact.
50
-------
PROJECTED HEALTH IMPLICATIONS OF MAJOR AUTOMOTIVE
EMISSIONS
JOHN H. KNELSON and ROBERT E. LEE, JR.
The health hazard associated with a given environ-
mental pollutant depends on three basic parameters:
—First is the concentration level of the pollutant
to which a given population is exposed. Accurately
determining the concentration has always been diffi-
cult because of limitations in measurement tech-
nology, different chemical forms of the pollutant in
the atmosphere, and the uncertainty in relating the
pollutant level in air to the actual dose a given
individual would receive.
—The second parameter is the range of suscepti-
bility of a given population. For example, we know
that patients with heart disease are more susceptible
to the effects of small amounts of carbon monoxide
than are healthy subjects. From the concept of the
range of susceptibility, we can designate the popula-
tion at risk to exposure to a given pollutant.
—The third parameter which needs to be con-
sidered in assessing the health hazard of an environ-
mental pollutant is the spectrum of response which
refers to the various ways an individual can manifest
the effects of environmental stress. The spectrum of
response can range from the mildest, such as slight
biological changes of uncertain significance, to the
most severe, that is, mortality.
These three dimensions make up an exposure-
response matrix which can provide a tool for objec-
tively determining human health effects from environ-
mental pollutants. The question we want to answer
is "How many individuals in each category of our
population are subjected to what levels of risk for
a given range of pollutant concentration?"
Automotive emissions have long been recognized
as having a significant impact on the air quality and
subsequently to health and welfare of the United
States. In assessing the projected health implications
of major automotive emissions including carbon mon-
oxide, photochemical oxidants and their precursors,
and oxides of nitrogen, we must take into account
the parameters of the exposure-response matrix
which have been described. It is possible to develop
a damage function for each of those pollutants which
relate per year health consequences to incremental
levels of air pollutant exposure using a total popula-
tion basis. In conjunction with the damage function,
projected pollutant concentration, and the projected
population for a given area, we can estimate the
human health consequences which may be expected
to result from the implementation of various mobile
source control strategies. This concept can be applied
on an individual basis to those pollutants associated
with mobile source emissions.
CARBON MONOXIDE
The current U.S. ambient air quality standard foi
CO is 10 mg/m3 for an 8 hour average and 40
mg/m3 for a 1 hour average [1]. Carbon monoxide
exerts its adverse physiologic influence by interfering
with oxygen transport to the cellular level. This
occurs due to formation of carboxyhemoglobin
(COHb) by combination of inhaled CO with the
hemoglobin which ordinarily carries oxygen.
The damage function, shown in Figure 1, relates
excess person hours of disability, that is, chest pain
and decreased activity in people with stable coronary
artery disease, to incremental ambient levels of
carbon monoxide exposure. It was derived from
the data of Anderson et al. [2] which related the
effect of low-level CO exposure in persons with
stable coronary artery disease to the duration of
chest pain. Regression lines for excess disability
assuming various carboxyhemoglobin threshold levels
were developed and incorporated into an estimate of
the general population at risk. The ambient levels
were expressed as the annual geometric mean of the
maximum daily eight-hour average for each of the
three standard geometric deviations. The annual
geometric means varied from 2 to 10 mg/m3 and the
three standard geometric deviations provided for
each mean were 1.3, 1.5 and 1.7.
We may now apply the damage function to a given
area in conjunction with a projected population esti-
mate and an estimate of ambient air quality. Let us
use San Francisco as an example. The projected
population of San Francisco in 1980 is 3.4 million
and in the year 2000 it is 4.2 million people [3].
51
-------
50
I 40
+••
- CO
1!
co °- 30
HI C
o o
X OT
a.
co
10
34567
ANNUAL GEOMETRIC MEAN OF DAILY MAXIMUM
8-hr AVERAGE CO CONCENTRATIONS, mg/m3
Figure 1. Damage function for exposure to carbon monoxide: excess disability versus CO concentration.
The projected air quality for carbon monoxide is
based on a number of assumptions:
—That the average lifetime of an automobile in
the U.S. will be 13 years.
—That for the air quality level of carbon mon-
oxide, a growth of one percent compounded
annually can be expected from automobiles.
This reflects the fact that carbon monoxide is a
localized problem where traffic density is already
high and that growth in those areas will not be
as great as for the broader metropolitan areas.
—That new emission standards are assumed to
take effect in 1978.
—That the deterioration rate of control devices for
mobile sources is reduced from that presently
occurring by assuming that inspection and
maintenance plans will be in operation nation-
wide.
For a vehicle emissions standard of 25 gm of
CO/mile, we can calculate an average air quality
level of 9 mg/m3 in both 1980 and 2000 [4]. If we
assume a standard geometric deviation of 1.5,
100,000 person-hours will be lost due to excess
disability in 1980 and 1.25 million person-hours
in 2000.
On the other hand, for a vehicle emission standard
of 9 gm/mile, the CO level in San Francisco will be
9 mg/m3 in 1980 and 4.6 mg/m3 in 2000 [4]. This
means that 100,000 person-hours will be lost in
1980 but only 10,500 hours in 2000, a decrease of
99% over the 25 gm/mile emission standard.
PHOTOCHEMICAL OXIDANTS
The present U.S. National Primary Standard for
photochemical oxidants is 160 |U,g/m3 maximum one
hour concentration not to be exceeded more than
once per year [1]. Compliance with this Ambient
Air Quality Standard (AAQS) is sought by emission
control of hydrocarbons which are oxidant pre-
cursors, rather than control of oxidants themselves.
The original evidence for the ambient standard in
humans was based on increased illness including
aggravation of asthma and chronic lung disease, irri-
tation of the respiratory tract in healthy adults,
decreased visual acuity, increased eye irritation, and
changes in heart and lung function in healthy sub-
jects.
Damage functions at three geometric standard
deviations are shown in Figure 2 relating the annual
geometric mean of the daily maximum 1 hour con-
centration to excess chest discomfort. It was derived
from data developed from the Los Angeles Student
Nurse Study carried out by Hammer et al. [5].
Applying the same assumptions as in the case for
carbon monoxide but assuming a growth of 3%
compounded annually and a standard geometric
deviation of 2.2 we can project the health conse-
quences of automobile emission control strategies.
Let us take the Portland, Oregon area as an
example. For an emission standard of 2 gm/mile,
52
-------
30
c
o
£ - 20
P a
co
Q
(A
CO
-------
500
400
O o
u -^
O ^
£ I 300
U/CD
I T3
2 =
< O
Q in
< fe
111 Q.
I
CO"
oo o
LU ,-
U
X
200
100
EYE DISCOMFORT
40 80 120' 160
ANNUAL GEOMETRIC MEAN OF DAILY MAXIMUM
1-hour OXIDANT CONCENTRATION,>/g/m 3
200
Figure 3. Damage function for exposure to oxidants: excess headache and eye discomfort versus oxidant concentration.
100 /xg/m3 [1] as an annual arithmetic average.
While the annual standard is felt to be adequate on
an annual basis, that human health consequences
have been calculated at lower levels suggests this
standard is probably not sufficient. Recent data
obtained from laboratory studies suggest human
health consequences may occur under peak exposure
conditions for short durations. These peak exposure
effects are probably reflected in this damage function.
EPA is currently investigating this question, and
the possible need for a short term National Ambient
Air Quality standard for nitrogen dioxide.
Using the damage function to assess the effect of
control strategies, we find in St. Louis for example,
that implementing a NO2 standard of 3.1 gm/mile
will result in 416,000 excess days of restricted
activity in 1980 and 532,000 days in 2000. But a
standard of 0.4 gm/mile will result in 390,000 days
in 2000, a reduction of 6% — but only 280,000
days in 2000, or a decrease of 48% from the 3.1
gm/mile standard.
CONCLUSIONS
Damage functions can provide us with tools for
estimating exposure-response relationships associated
with automotive control strategies. It is recognized
that these functions are based on a number of
assumptions and approximations and were derived
from a limited health data base. They do, however,
give us an estimate of the projected human health
risk which can be expected. We are sure that as
more results from animal toxicology, clinical and
population studies become available, we will be able
to further refine damage functions.
REFERENCES
1. EPA, "National Ambient Air Quality Standards" Federal
Register 36 6680 (April 7, 1971).
2. Anderson, Andelman, Strauch, Fortuin and Knelson,
"Effect of Low-Level Carbon Monoxide Exposure on
Onset and Duration of Angina Pectoris," Ann. Intern.
Med. 79, 46 (1973).
3. "1972 OBEDS Series E Projections of Economic Activity
in the U.S." U.S. Water Resources Council, April, 1974.
4. "Air Quality and Automobile Emission Control" Vol. 3,
"The Relationship of Emissions to Ambient Air Quality,"
Serial No. 93-24, Committee on Public Works, U.S.
Senate, (Sept. 1974).
5. Hammer, D. I., V. Hasselblad, B. Portnoy, and P. F.
Wehrle, "Los Angeles Student Nurse Study. Daily Symp-
tom Reporting and Photochemical Oxidants," Arch.
Environ. Health, 28, 255 (1974).
6. Shy, C. M. et al., "The Chattanooga School Children
Study: Effects of Community Exposure to Nitrogen
Dioxide. Incidence of Auto Respiratory Illness." I. Air
Poll. Control Assoc. 20, 582 (1970).
54
-------
300
250
i= o 200
o 4=
Q 2.
E% 15°
to ^
ai CA
cc. >.
,r. (0
LLJ
100
50
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
ANNUAL AVERAGE NC>2 CONCENTRATION,
Figure 4. Damage function for exposure to nitrogen dioxide: excess restricted activity in children with lower respiratory
disease versus N02 concentration.
55
-------
HYGIENIC CRITERIA OF MAXIMUM PERMISSIBLE LOAD
G. I. SIDORENKO and M. A. PINIGIN
As we know, the current development of produc-
tive forces is in many instances accompanied by
qualitative and quantitative changes in the state of
the environment and in particular in its chemical
composition. A redistribution of chemical elements,
is taking place on earth as a result of man's activity;
biogeochemical provinces are being disturbed which
were formed in nature; there is an increase in the
pollution of air, water, soil and of food products by
various chemical agents. For example, in a number
of countries the pollution of air in the cities has
reached a point where it presents a threat to health
and in some situations to the lives of people. Conse-
quently, among the many aspects of the problem
dealing with the environment much importance is
ascribed to the question of protecting the life and
health of man, thereby pointing to the necessity of
evaluating the danger of chemical pollution.
The hygienic assessment of the danger of chemical
pollution of the environment includes two aspects,
one of which is tied in with the substantiation of the
criteria of the degree of pollution (hygienic norms)
and the other with the use of these criteria in practice
to control the quality of the environment.
HYGIENIC NORMS OF THE PERMISSIBLE
CONTENT OF HARMFUL SUBSTANCES
IN THE ENVIRONMENT
The hygienic norms for the permissible content of
harmful substances are the maximum permissible
concentration (MFC) for various media of the en-
vironment (air, water, soil, food products).
The MFC include concentrations which do not
directly or indirectly affect man and his progeny, do
not reduce his ability to work, or his state of health
as well as the sanitary-living conditions of the lives
of people.
The norm setting of the permissible content of
chemical factors in the environment is based on the
concept of the presence of thresholds in action,
although the threshold values themselves (concen-
trations) are relative and depend on many causes,
both physical (aggregate state of the substance,
medium, regime duration of intake and so forth)
and biological (physiological state of the organism,
age, methods of intake and others).
Threshold concentrations are generally recognized
as those minimum concentrations which under cer-
tain conditions are capable of harming the organism
of man or the environment. Inasmuch as the harm-
ful effects of the chemical agents on the organism
and the environment are varied, use has to be made
of the limiting index in establishing the hygienic
norms, (V. A. Ryazanov, 1952; S. N. Cherkinskiy,
1971; G. I. Sidorenko, M. A. Pinigin, 1971, et al.).*
In accordance with this principle norm setting is
carried out for the most sensitive index. For ex-
ample, if odor of a substance is noticeable with
concentrations which do not have a harmful effect
on man or the environment, then the norm setting for
atmospheric pollution is conducted taking into con-
sideration the threshold of the olfactory senses. If
the substance has a damaging effect on the environ-
ment with lesser concentrations than on the organism
of man, the process of norm setting proceeds from
the threshold of action of that substance on the
environment. In designating the MFC of chemical
substances in the water of reservoirs and having
established the threshold and inactive concentrations
of the effect on the organoleptic properties of water
(odor, taste, color and turbidity) and on the general
sanitary regime of the reservoirs (change in the
biochemical processes of the mineralization of or-
ganic substances) as well as the toxic effect on the
organism of man as a limiting indication, we accept
that for which the threshold and inactive concentra-
tions are the smallest.
A characteristic of hygienic norm setting of the
permissible contents of harmful substances in the
environment is also conditioned by the extreme vari-
ability of their concentrations in time and space,
which is linked with the variety of their causes. Most
significant is the variability of the concentrations of
atmospheric pollution. Therefore, the concentrations
calculated for the same point but with different
degrees of averaging during the selection of test
samples have significant differences. Then, the nature
*No references accompany this paper.
56
-------
of the concentrations in the environment can be
correct only when there is a simultaneous degree of
averaging of the analytical data in time: average
hourly, average daily, average monthly, average
yearly, and so forth. Consequently, the norm values
of the MFC must be, by degree of their averaging,
different in time. Inasmuch as the effect of the
harmful substance depends both on its concentration
and on the duration of the contact, the concentration
which is harmless during a brief inhalation may
become dangerous with a more prolonged inhalation.
Substances which have generally toxic effects with
an expressed cumulative effect have the norms set
by following average concentrations over a prolonged
period.
As a result of the significant variability in the con-
tent of substances in the environment, the average
concentration over a prolonged period'cannot guar-
antee the fact that the content of the substance will
not exceed the threshold of acute action for a brief
span of time. Therefore, in addition to the average
concentrations, it is necessary to indicate the boun-
daries of their vacillations, that is the maximum
permissible monetary or "peak" concentration. This
first of all must refer to substances with expressed
irritant effect on the mucosa and substances with a
strong odor since the perception of the odor or of a
sense of the irritation of the mucosa does not require
prolonged exposure (V. A. Ryazanov, 1952).
In accordance with basic tenets of hygienic norm
setting for the permissible content of harmful sub-
stances in the environment, the state sanitary legisla-
tion of the USSR, at the present time, includes norms
for over 450 substances in the water of reservoirs
and over 160 substances in atmospheric air, during
their isolated impact on the organism.
However, under present conditions each object in
the environment (air, water, food products) can be
contaminated simultaneously by various chemical
compounds, resulting in the need to study their com-
bined actions.
The evaluation of the nature of the combined
action is based on the comparison of the effect pro-
duced by a mixture of the substances with the effect
reached during the isolated action by components of
the mixture. Therefore, usually having established
the threshold concentrations for the isolated action
of the substances, the mixtures are made up including
the individual components in parts from the estab-
lished thresholds calculated so that the sum of these
parts is smaller, equal to or greater than a unit.
If the mixture results in an effect equal to the
threshold during isolated action and its concentration
expressed in parts of the individual thresholds is
equal to a unit, then the nature of the combined
action is assessed as a manifestation of additivity
(summation). The finding of the threshold effect with
a concentration of the mixture less than a unit points
to the synergism effect during combined action and
with summary concentrations larger than a unit
points to manifestations of antagonism.
As shown by the process of norm setting, at the
level of small concentrations found in the environ-
ment, many substances during their combined action
render an impact by the type of summation effect
(I. V. Sanotskiy, 1969; M. I. Gusev, 1970; G. I.
Sidorenko, et al., 1973; and others). In this case
the permissible level of the content of several sub-
stances, with their combined presence in a specific
medium, is that where the sum of concentrations
expressed in parts of the MFC of the substance
equals a unit. In the event of antagonism the sum
may be larger than a unit and in the case of
synergism less than a unit.
Under present conditions man may be subjected to
the unfavorable actions of not only various combina-
tions of chemical substances simultaneously appear-
ing from some object in the environment but also the
action of one substance from several objects (air,
water, food). The impact of the substance entering
the organism simultaneously by several routes is
called complex.
Existing methods for establishing hygienic norms
of a substance separately for atmospheric air, air at
production sites, water in reservoirs, and in food
products do not take into consideration the possi-
bility of its simultaneous entry into the organism.
This determines the need for developing approaches
to complex (single) norm setting for chemical com-
pounds in the environment.
In view of the differences in the principles and
criteria for establishing the MFC of harmful sub-
stances in various media we at the present stage are
dealing with development of approaches for single
norm setting for those substances the permissible
content of which is limited by their resorptive, i.e.
toxic action. Proposals aimed at the solution of the
question of complex norm setting are being examined
in this particular plan (Ye. I. Spynu, et al., 1971;
A. I. Korbakova, et al., 1971; G. I. Sidorenko, M. A.
Pinigin, 1971; and others).
Probably the courses for resolving the methodo-
logical questions of the evaluation of danger of
chemical substances during their complex entry into
the organism can vary. However, the determining
factor in developing the approaches to single hygienic
norm setting is the calculation of the biological
equivalency (isoeffectiveness) of doses and concen-
trations of harmful substances entering the organism
by different routes and in various regimes.
Along with an evaluation of the environment for
the level of pollution certain authors consider the
57
-------
biological "integral" established with the aid of highly
sensitive biochemical and enzymological tests of
exposition to be an important index of the total
action of the substance (I. D. Gadaskina, V. A.
Filov, 1971, et al.).
Efforts, which have been undertaken to further
expand the bases for hygienic norm setting of chem-
ical factors, present new tasks in light of the further
integration of criteria of the quality of the environ-
ment. In fact, in solving questions of the evaluation
of combined and complex impact individually, one
must not forget that these actions render their influ-
ence on man simultaneously; that is, at a specific
moment each medium may contain several sub-
stances, while a number of substances may be present
not in one certain substance alone but in other media.
For the purpose of calculating and evaluating this
integral action it probably is not possible to disagree
with the suggestion of establishing a maximum per-
missible chemical load.
Undoubtedly, the definition of the concept of the
maximum permissible load (MPL) must in principle
be the same as the definition of the MFC, that is,
the MPL is the maximum content of harmful sub-
stances in the environment which does not result in
direct or indirect unfavorable effects on the organism
of man and his progeny, does not deteriorate the
hygienic and daily conditions of life. However to
measure the maximum permissible load it is not
really possible to use the measures employed for the
MFC (mg/m3, mg/1 and so forth). Apparently, the
most satisfactory measure of the MFC can be ex-
pressed in relative terms, for example, in parts of the
MFC of the substances present in the environment
taking into consideration the nature of the combined
and complex action of these substances.
In both instances, in order to calculate their na-
ture, as previously mentioned, it is particularly im-
portant to use biologically equivalent (isoeffective)
concentrations.
The calculation of biological equivalence of the
concentration of a substance can be based on the
use of quantitative dependences and in particular
on "dose-effect" and "dose-time." In the case of
using, for purposes of evaluation of the complex
action, the "dose (concentration)-time" complex as
the isoeffective concentrations, we also employ those
which evoke similar effects over the same interval
of time.
In connection with the importance of determining
the dependences "dose-effect" and "dose-time" for
quantitative evaluation of the nature of combined
and complex actions of the chemical agents we pre-
sent below the empirical values for the expression of
these dependences.
THE DEPENDENCE CURVES OF THE
"DOSE-EFFECT" AND "TIME-EFFECT"
AND THEIR USE IN THE SOLUTION OF
QUESTIONS OF THE MPL
The most typical dependence curves between the
toxic dose and the reaction are the S-shaped curves
which on the punctured grid are approximated by the
straight lines. Unfortunately, we must note the fact
that as a result of the complexity of setting up the
chronic experiments, the dependence curves of the
"dose-effect" at low concentrations are not as a rule
established. In connection with this it is, at the
present time, difficult to judge the nature of the
"dose-effect" curves at low concentrations during
prolonged exposure. An even more complex task
is the establishment of similar curves on the basis of
epidemiological studies of the interaction of the
health of the population with the degree of environ-
mental pollution. However, establishment of the
nature of the dependence "dose-effect" curves at the
level of low concentrations represents one of the
most important aspects in the development of criteria
in calculating the permissible levels of the chemical
loads.
As long as the MPL according to definition is
found below the levels of the threshold of action of
the chemical compounds it is necessary to use, in
the evaluation of the nature of the combined and
complex action of the subthreshold levels of concen-
tration, (sic) It is theoretically possible, that in the
zone of subthreshold concentrations one can find the
dependence of the "dose-effect" in the zone of the
prethreshold concentrations as well. However, at
subthreshold levels a direct measurement of the ef-
fects is impossible, therefore the "dose-effect" can
be represented in the form of the dependence curve
of the degree of intensity of the defensive-adaptive
mechanisms from the level of threshold concentra-
tions. This can be shown with the help of functional
loads. Unfortunately, similar data are in practice not
available. In connection with this an important task
for defining the MPL calls for an ellucidation of the
dependences of the "dose-effect" curves at the level
of the subthreshold (or MP) concentrations.
In order to calculate the MPL, as previously
noted, we can employ the "dose (concentration)-
time" dependence.
Studies conducted at the Institute im. A. N. Sysin
of the USSR Academy of Medical Sciences show
that during uninterrupted inhalation of the sub-
stances the "concentration-time" dependence both
during onset of acute toxic effects (marginal situation
and death of the animals) and the physiological and
biochemical shifts has the nature of a hyperbole,
58
-------
which on a grid with a logarithmic scale may be
approximated with straight lines of various slopes.
In accordance with the equation of the straight line
the empirical expression of the dependence "concen-
tration-time" may be written in the general form:
lgT = lgT0-tgLXlgC, (1)
where T is the time of the onset of the toxic effect
during inhalation of the substance in a concentration
of C; T0 —time, equal to the accepted unit of time
measurement, where concentration of substance C0
results in the same effect; L is the angle of inclination
(the concentration being plotted along the abscissa).
In changing the values according to the axes of the
coordinates the equation of the dependence "time-
concentration" can be shown as:
TABLE 1. CLASSIFICATION OF THE DANGER
OF HARMFUL SUBSTANCES ACCORDING TO THE
"CONCENTRATION-TIME" DEPENDENCE CURVE
= lgC0-tgLXlgT
(2)
From equation (2) we obtain an empirical formula
of the dependence of the concentration of the sub-
stance in the air from the time of its uninterrupted
inhalation:
^Co _,
(3)
where in addition to the known designations, K rep-
resents tga (M. A. Pinigin, 1972).
Inasmuch as the "concentration-time" curves are
integral reflections of the toxicodynamics of the
substance as well as the state of the cumulation of
the toxic effect and its compensation, the parameters
of these curves (the angle of inclination or its tan-
gents) permit judgment of the degree of danger
(probability of unfavorable effect of the substance
on the organism under actual conditions). Moreover,
the greater the slope, the smaller the tangent of the
angle, the more dangerous is the substance, since in
this case a drop in the level of the concentration
leads to an increase in comparison with the onset
of this effect in other cases.
The logarithmic dependence of the time of onset
of the toxic effects on the level of concentrations of
the substance in the air permitted a classification of
their threat according to the parameters of the "con-
centration-time" curve, Table 1.
Classification of the danger of substances as estab-
lished according to parameters of the curve "con-
centration-time" during continuous inhalation as the
comparison shows coincides satisfactorily with the
classification established for these substances during
labor hygiene with interrupted impact.
The possibility of obtaining "concentration-time"
curves during inhalation and oral intake of sub-
stances permits a calculation of the biologically
equivalent concentrations and on this basis a judg-
Class of danger
Curve parameters
Slope
Increase in effect
appearance time
Tangent of with a 10-fold
inclination reduction in substance
angle concentration in air
1st extremely
dangerous >155° <0.475 for 3 times
2nd highly
dangerous 155-137° 0.475-0.950 9 times
3rd moderately
dangerous 137-125° 0.950-1.425 27 times
4th slightly
dangerous <125° > 1.425 > 27 times
ment of the nature of the combined and complex
action. The evaluation of the nature of impact of the
substance is carried out in accordance with the Finni
formula. Here, the resultant isoeffective concentra-
tions with the isolated impact of the substance are
taken as 100% (or 1) while the concentration of the
appropriate substances during combined or complex
intake are expressed in parts of the isoeffective con-
centrations.
The parts obtained, expressed in percentages are
added up. If the sum of parts of all components of
the mixture approximates 100%, there is a summa-
tion, but if it is less, then there is synergism, and if
it is over 100%, we have antagonism (M. A. Pinigin,
1974).
In accordance with the defined nature of the com-
bined and complex impact of the substance we can
calculate the MPL according to formulae: in the
event of the summation effect:
MPL =
HYGIENIC ASSESSMENT OF THE ACTUAL
LOAD OF CHEMICAL POLLUTION
The state of the environment is assessed following
results of studies of the content of various chemical
compounds based on a comparison with hygienic
norms. In those instances, where the content of the
harmful substances in the environment exceeds the
permissible levels, we face the question of developing
a short or long-range program for the purpose of
cleaning up the specified environment. It is per-
fectly natural that the development of such programs
must be based on a differentiated assessment of the
danger of pollution. Moreover, like levels of MPC
excesses for various substances do not point to the
like danger of environmental pollution by these sub-
stances. The degree of danger of pollution is judged
59
-------
differently depending on the classification of danger
of the chemical compound (I. P. Ulanova, M. A.
Pinigin, 1974). In accordance with the classification
of substances by degree of danger (probability of
unfavorable effect on man under actual conditions)
as adopted in the USSR, development continues on
special nomograms for an assessment of the danger
of pollution and particularly of air pollution (M. A.
Pinigin, 1975). The nomograms represent isolines
of the degree of danger of pollution for various
multiplicity factors exceeding the MPC of chemical
substances relating to various classes. This permits
a "standardization" of the degree of danger from
the actual pollution by substances of various classes
for one class and on this basis a summary* assessment
of pollution as the index of pollution danter (M. A.
Pinigin, R. M. Barkhudarov, I. K. Dibobes, 1975).
The index of the danger of pollution of one
medium can be expressed in the form of a general
formula:
s
m=l
(Kj + KOrnXn-
(1)
where: N is the quantity of the substance in the air;
C^ is the number of all possible pairs of the sub-
stance;
Ki + Kj/2 is the average concentration of the *
nth pair of substances the concentration of
which is preliminarily standardized at** the
threshold
nm is the number of substances with a monotypic
nature of combined action, (when all of the
examined substances possess a monotypic nature
of the combined action, then n = Nl;)
Att,j?is the coefficient characterizing the effect of the
combined action.
Naturally, in evaluating the actual load taking into
consideration the intake of substances via water or
other media the formula becomes more complex.
However, the main complexity of the evaluation of
the actual load lies in the fact that the coefficients
describing the combined and complex action of sub-
stance remain in the majority of cases still unknown.
As further experiments are carried out, we un-
questionably will be able to define more precisely the
quantitative expression of the MPC and ways for
applying it for the integral assessment of the chemi-
cal pollution of the environment which in turn will
promote greater efficiency in raising the preventive
and treatment measures hi the sphere of protecting
the environment from pollution.
*Here the expression "concentration" means the brevity of
exceeding the MPC.
** Standardization is carried out with consideration for the
classification of the danger of the pollutants according to
the nomograms.
60
-------
RATIONALE FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF CARCINOGENIC RISKS
ROY E. ALBERT
BACKGROUND
Regulatory action against chemicals on the basis
of carcinogen action has become an issue of con-
siderable importance. There is evidence that a sub-
stantial amount of human cancer is caused by
chemical and physical agents in the environment.
Bioassay programs, currently testing hundreds of
substances, are beginning to show that important
industrial and agricultural chemicals are carcino-
genic for animals and are, therefore, candidates for
regulatory action. There is expectation that control
of environmental carcinogens by Federal regulatory
action will reduce the public health burden of can-
cer.
The first important regulatory step against car-
cinogens in the United States was the Delaney
Clause of the Food and Drug Act which set a zero
tolerance limit against carcinogenic food additives.
However, the general application of such an ideal-
ized form of regulatory action is unrealistic because
many carcinogens are too important to eliminate
completely without intolerable socio-economic con-
sequences. Consonant with this view, the Federal
Insecticide, Fungicide, Rodenticide Act (FIFRA),
which is the enabling legislation for the control of
health hazards from pesticides, requires a balancing
of risks and benefits as the basis for regulatory de-
cisions.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is
developing procedures for analyzing health risks
from suspect carcinogens as one component of the
process of weighing risks and benefits. A draft of
the Interim Guideline for Carcinogen Risk Assess-
ment is attached as an Appendix to this paper.
There are two basic aspects to the evaluation of
any risk: How likely is the risk to occur, and if it
does occur, how bad are the consequences? Simi-
larly, there are two fundamental questions to be
answered by the risk assessment of a suspect carcin-
ogen. How likely is the agent to be a human carcin-
ogen? And if it is, how much cancer might be pro-
duced by the agent if allowed to go on unregulated?
The best evidence that an agent is a human car-
cinogen is provided by adequate epidemiologic data
backed by confirmatory animal tests. However, for
practical purposes, the bulk of instances which re-
quire judgments about human carcinogenicity will
come from animal studies.
The point of view taken in the EPA Guideline
is that any evidence of tumorigenic activity in ani-
mals is a signal that the agent is a potential human
carcinogen. The weight of evidence that an agent
is a human carcinogen is determined by the quality
and adequacy of the data for carcinogenicity as well
as the nature and magnitude of the response. There
is substantial justification for using rodent assay
systems for predicting human responses because of
the approximately 15 chemical agents that are gen-
erally accepted to have produced human cancers,
all but one produced a carcinogenic response in
rats and/or mice; in most of the tests, the cancers
occur in the same organ as in humans when tested
by the appropriate route of exposure. There are
only a few instances where the conventional bioassay
tests by ingestion or inhalation with rats and mice
produced false negative results; i.e., tests with other
species or routes of administration were required to
produce positive results. It is to be expected that
the rodent assay systems will also produce false
positive results, but there is no evidence upon which
to base judgments of how frequently and with what
classes of agents this is likely to occur.
The quantitative assessment of the impact of a
suspect carcinogen on cancer induction in humans
at unregulated levels of exposure is necessary be-
cause otherwise there would be no basis for judging
the need for regulatory action. Of the half a dozen
cases in which quantitative comparisons can be
made between animals and humans, the magnitude
of carcinogenic response in the most sensitive of
the tested animals does show a reasonable compar-
ability to that of humans. Such comparisons also
indicate that there can be enormous differences in
the carcinogenic potency of different agents for both
humans and animals. However, it is necessary to
recognize that there are substantial differences in
sensitivity even amongst different strains in the same
species of test animals so that it is necessary to take
61
-------
cross comparisons between animals and humans
with reservations.
Another aspect of the quantitative risk assess-
ment involves extrapolation of dose-response rela-
tionships from high levels of exposure to low levels
of exposure. All the instances that we have of hu-
man cancer induction by known chemical and phys-
ical agents as well as the induction of cancers in
animals involve large exposures in comparison to
those which are of concern in setting exposure
standards. Estimates are, therefore, required about
the level of cancer risk at exposures which are far
below those for which observable responses have
been obtained. In order to make such extrapola-
tions, it is necessary to assume some shape to the
dose-response curve. For this purpose, it is prob-
ably most appropriate to assume a linear non-thresh-
old dose-response relationship. This pattern of re-
sponse has been observed in humans with certain
forms of ionizing radiation and with the occurrence
of lung cancer by cigarette smoking. It is also the
pattern of response observed for the induction of
genetic mutations and there is a strong possibility
that genetic damage is the fundamental derange-
ment in cancer cells. The linear non-threshold dose-
response relationship is conservative in tending to
predict the largest response for any given level of
low dose exposure. Such a dose-response pattern,
however, carries the implication that there is no
such thing as a safe level of exposure.
SUMMARY
The intent of the EPA Interim Guideline for
Carcinogen Risk Assessment is to provide a sum-
mation of the evidence about a suspect carcinogen
which encapsulates judgments about the quality and
adequacy of data, the likelihood that the agent is a
human carcinogen, and an estimate of the magni-
tude of the cancer burden that could be ascribed to
the agent if no regulatory action were taken. It is
recognized that new knowledge in the field of car-
cinogenesis is rapidly developing and that modifi-
cations of the Guidelines for Risk Assessment will
need to be made periodically.
DRAFT INTERIM GUIDELINE FOR
CARCINOGEN RISK ASSESSMENT
1.0 Introduction
This preliminary guideline describes the general
framework to be followed in developing an analy-
sis of carcinogen risks and some salient principles
to be used in evaluating the quality of data and for-
mulating judgments concerning the nature and mag-
nitude of the cancer hazard from suspect carcino-
gens.
This guideline is to be used within the policy
framework already provided by applicable statutes,
and does not alter such policies. The guideline pro-
vides a general format for analyzing and organizing
available data. It does not imply that one kind of
data or another is prerequisite for regulatory action
to control, prohibit, or allow the use of a carcino-
gen. Also, the guideline does not change any stat-
utorily prescribed standards as to which party has
the responsibility of demonstrating the safety, or
alternatively the risk, of an agent.
The analysis of health risks will be carried out
independently from considerations of the socio-eco-
nomic consequences of regulatory action.
The risk assessment document will contain or
identify by reference the background material es-
sential to substantiate the evaluations contained
therein.
2.0 General Principles Concerning the Assessment oi
Carcinogenesis Data
The central purpose of the health risk assessment
is to provide a judgment concerning the weight of
evidence that an agent is a potential human carcin-
ogen and, if so, how great an impact it is likely to
have on public health.
Judgments about the weight of evidence involve
considerations of the quality and adequacy of the
data, and the kinds of responses induced by the
suspect carcinogen. The best evidence that an agent
is a human carcinogen comes from epidemiological
studies in conjunction with confirmatory animal
tests. Substantial evidence is provided by animal
tests that demonstrate the induction of malignant
tumors in one or more species including benign tu-
mors that are generally recognized as early stages
of malignancies. Suggestive evidence includes the
induction of only those non-life shortening benign
tumors which are generally accepted as not pro-
gressing to malignancy, and indirect tests of tumor-
igenic activity, such as matagenicity, in-vitro cell
transformation, and initiation-promotion skin tests
in mice. Ancillary reasons that bear on judgments
about carcinogenic potential, e.g., evidence from
systematic studies that relate chemical structure to
carcinogenicity should be included in the assess-
ment.
When an agent is assumed to be a human car-
cinogen, estimates should be made of its possible
impact on public health at current and anticipated
levels of exposure. The available techniques for as-
sessing the magnitude of cancer risk to human pop-
ulations on the basis of animal data only are very
crude due to uncertainties in the extrapolation of
dose-response data to very low dose levels and also
because of differences in levels of susceptibility of
62
-------
animals and humans. Hence, the risk estimates
should be regarded only as rough indications of
effect. Where appropriate, a range of estimates
should be given on the basis of several modes of
extrapolation.
Expert scientific judgments in the areas of toxi-
cology, pathology, biometry, and epidemiology are
required to resolve uncertainties about the quality,
adequacy, and interpretation of experimental and
epidemiology data to be used for the risk assess-
ment.
3.0 Format of the Risk Analysis
3.1 EXPOSURE PATTERNS
This section should summarize the known and
possible modes of exposure attendant to the var-
ious uses of the agent. It should include or identify
by reference available data on factors relevant to
effective dosage, physical and chemical parameters,
e.g., solubility, particle size for aerosols, skin pene-
tration, absorption rates, etc. Interaction of agents
which may produce a synergistic or antagonistic
effect should also be indicated, if available.
3.2 METABOLIC CHARACTERISTICS
This section should summarize known metabolic
characteristics including transport, fate and excre-
tion, and biochemical similarities to other known
classes of carcinogens at high and low dose levels
and should provide comparisons between relevant
species as well as variations in different strains of
certain species.
3.3 EXPERIMENTAL CARCINOGENESIS
STUDIES
Available experimental reports should be summar-
ized. If some experiments are to be rejected for the
risk assessment, give reasons for doing so. Reprints
of key papers and reports should be included as
appendices to the analysis.
Judgments should be provided on the quality of
the experimental data and their interpretations for
each study on the basis of (1) experimental proto-
cols, (2) survival rates in controls particularly in
relation to acceptance of negative results, (3) inci-
dence of spontaneous tumors in the control com-
pared to general laboratory experience for the same
species or strain, (4) diagnostic criteria and nom-
enclature used for tumor characterization (additional
evaluation of histological material should be ob-
tained when appropriate), (5) observed results of
positive controls (i.e., a test group given a standard-
ized exposure to a known carcinogen) in light of
expected results.
3.4 EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES
Summarize epidemiological studies, together with
critiques of the work with respect to its limitations
and significance. Summarize other published cri-
tiques whether supportive or at variance with the
judgment made here.
3.5 CANCER RISK ESTIMATES
3.5.1 Exposure Patterns — Describe likely expo-
sure levels with respect to long-term temporal trends,
short-term temporal patterns, and weighted averages
for both the total exposed populations and for sub-
groups whose exposure patterns may be distinctly
different from the average. Characterize, to the ex-
tent possible, the size of the exposed population
for each of the above categories with an indication
of whether the exposures are likely to involve chil-
dren and pregnant women. Discuss the adequacy of
the methods used to estimate exposures and indi-
cate the range of uncertainty in the estimates.
3.5.2 Dose-Response Relationships — Both hu-
man and animal data should be used as available.
Include available human data, even if inadequate
for a characterization of the actual magnitude of
risk, where such data could be helpful in interpret-
ing animal responses in relation to human sensitiv-
ity.
3.5.3 Estimates of Cancer Risk — The procedure
will involve a variety of risk extrapolation models,
e.g., the linear non-threshold model and the log-
probit model. Analyses will be done separately for
all suitable experimental data and human epidemio-
logical data. The results should be presented in
terms of excess lifetime incidence, or average ex-
cess cancer rates; life-shortening estimates should
also be made when the data permit. The uncer-
tainty in the data and extrapolation techniques
should be clearly indicated. The results predicted
for humans should be presented in relationship to
the current cancer experience in the assumed target
organ(s).
Some judgments should be included regarding
the relevance of the mode of exposure used in ani-
mal studies to that associated with human exposure.
4.0 Summary
The summary section of the risk assessment
should provide a statement which encompasses an-
swers to the following questions: (1) How likely
is the agent to be a human carcinogen? (2) If the
agent is a human carcinogen, what is the estimated
impact on human health?
63
-------
GENETIC ASPECTS OF PERMISSIBLE LOAD DETERMINATION
L. M. FILIPPOVA
In determining the scientifically substantiated
magnitude of the permissible influence of environ-
mental factors in the individual or population aspect
we are faced with the need to consider all the pos-
sible types of harmful effects of an entire complex
of factors affecting an organism. With an increase
in our knowledge and the accumulation of infor-
mation in this area of research there becomes in-
creasingly more important that part of the so-called
"genotoxic" (a lethal, toxic and mutational com-
plex) effect which is connected with the genetic con-
sequences of environmental pollution. Mutationally
active chemical compounds, which are encountered
among industrial wastes emitted into the natural
environment, among synthetic industrial products
and food additives, which increase the frequency of
genetic and chromosomal mutations in the gametes
and somatic cells of man, are becoming the cause
of an increase in the number of hereditary diseases
and defects, congenital anomalies, stillbirths and
spontaneous miscarriages. No small role is played
by the increase in the intensity of the mutation pro-
cess in animal and plant populations, which leads
as a rule to a decrease in their vitality and a deteri-
oration of the qualitative characteristics.
The influence of chemical factors having a mu-
tagenic activity can lead to diverse genetic conse-
quences for individual organisms, populations and
ecosystems. At the level of ecosystems the increase
caused by these factors in the intensity of the mu-
tation process among populations belonging to this
ecosystem may lead to a change in its structure,
which will be expressed in the gradual disappear-
ance of all the populations of the ecosystem sensi-
tive to this influence and to the consolidation of all
those resistant to it. The disturbance of the stability
of the ecosystem, its degradation may become the
result of such a restructuring. Most dangerous are
similar influences and similar changes for long
existing, stable, isolated ecosystems.
In the individual aspect the existence of muta-
genes in the environment entails the threat of de-
terioration of the state of health, the shortening of
the life expectancy, as well as the emergence of can-
cerous diseases through the induction of mutations
in the somatic cells of people subject to the in-
fluence.
Most serious in the aspect being examined is the
population level. Each population is characterized
by its own evolutionarily established correlation of
the mutation process that saturates the population
with harmful mutations, and the process which
eliminates defective genes from the population. An
increase in the intensity of the mutation process, if
it is not great, will not have any serious conse-
quences in the case of open populations with a large
number of individuals. What has been said, how-
ever, does not apply to human populations. Char-
acteristic of the human population at present is a
constant decrease in the pressure of selection; in
connection with this it becomes evident what the
significance is of the observed increase in the pres-
sure of mutations against a background of the al-
ready considerable existing genetic threat in the
population. Table 1 shows the change in the num-
ber of affected individuals in the population with
a doubling of the frequency of mutations from 10~6
to 2X 10"6 for four types of genes [1].
TABLE 1.
Type of Defective
Gene
Number of Affected Individuals
per Million
Recessive*
Semidominant
Dominant*
Linked with Sex*
Initial
Equilibrium
1 aa
20 Aa
2 Aa
3 aY
After One
Generation
1.002 aa
20 Aa
4 Aa
4aY
New
Equilibrium
2 aa
40 Aa
4 Aa
6aY
* In the first, third and fourth instances the affected indi-
viduals are incapable of reproduction.
The same changes may occur when the frequency
of mutations is unchanged but the pressure of se-
lection is reduced by 50%.
It was only comparatively recently, yet now ev-
eryone recognizes the need to evaluate the permis-
sible levels of influence of mutagenic agents in ad-
dition to the traditional setting of lexicological
standards of pollutants in man's environment. Con-
sidering the fact that the combination of pollutants
being admitted into the natural environment is be-
64
-------
coming increasingly diverse, while the amount of
each of them is constantly growing, very impor-
tant is the need to evaluate the relative contribu-
tion of the most diverse environmental factors hav-
ing a mutagenic activity. Keeping in mind the ex-
perimentally demonstrated potential of an adaptive
or synergidal mutation effect, when determining the
permissible amounts of genetically active pollutants
in natural environments it is necessary to consider
not only the interaction of these substances, but also
the increase in the frequency of mutations, which
is caused by the influence of products of chemical
synthesis and other factors in production, industry
and agriculture, as well as in daily life. Each of
these spheres of human life is characterized by a
specific set of genetically active agents that comes
into contact with man. As an example we can cite
the results of our research on the mutagenic danger
of certain groups of medicinal compounds. The
bulk of strong chemical mutagenes is found among
medicinal compounds used in cancer chemother-
apy, but other classes of pharmacological prepara-
tions also contain a significant amount of mutageni-
cally active compounds. We studied a group of psy-
chotropic drugs now being used extensively through-
out the world and often without regulation, and,
what is very important, primarily by people of
childbearing age [2, 3]. Of 47 compounds 12 sub-
stantially increased the frequency of the appearance
of gene mutations and/or chromosomal aberrations;
among the mutagenically active compounds was
such a very widespread drug as Luminal (pheno-
barbital). The existence of such a large number of
mutagenically active compounds in the studied se-
lection of psychotropic drugs, which are in no way
deliberately mutagenic, as in the case of canceroly-
tic drugs, attests to the significant contribution to
the overall mutational load on the human popula-
ion by pharmacological preparations.
In environmental toxicology there are two ap-
proaches to the setting of standards for the content
of harmful substances, i.e., to the determination of
the permissible loads on the human body. The first
approach is traditional, it has been at the basis of
the development of environmental hygiene in recent
decades. This approach has as its theoretical foun-
dation the concept of the threshold nature of the
influence of toxic substances and consists in deter-
mining their threshold amounts. The maximum per-
missible concentration of a substance (MFC) in
natural environments is a threshold, and according to
this concept, an absolutely safe amount of this sub-
stance, and therefore, there is no possibility of any
influence from the toxic substance on the human
organism. The concept of a threshold nature of the
effect of harmful substances leads to the very ser-
ious and, in our opinion, doubtful conclusion that
no matter how numerous the environmental pollut-
ing compounds and factors, their simultaneous pres-
ence is absolutely harmless if the amount of each
of them does not exceed the MFC.
Recently among toxicologists developing norms
and standards of the content of substances polluting
the natural environment, recognition has been
gained by the conception according to which any,
even the smallest quantities of a harmful substance
may have an influence on an organism, while the
apparent threshold of the effect with the increase in
our knowledge and the appearance of more perfect
research techniques will gradually be lowered. In
this case there can be no absolutely safe and guar-
anteed subthreshold quantities of toxic substances,
and basic in determining the permissible amounts
of harmful substances in natural environments is
the question, what portion of the population will
be subject to the harmful effects of a particular dose
of the pollutant and to what extent. In this case the
determination of the degree of permissible influence
and permissible quantities of toxic substances in nat-
ural environments is no longer that clear and sim-
pie.
As we already stated in our report presented at
the first symposium on the comprehensive analysis
of the environment, when determining the permis-
sible amounts of chemical compounds in the en-
vironment it is extremely important to proceed
from the principle of the lack of a threshold of
their mutational effect [4]. Hence ensues the very
important conclusion that any amount of an active
chemical mutagen can become the cause of serious
genetic consequences for the human population. At
present our knowledge of the laws of those proc-
esses in the human population which can lead to
particular disturbances of the balance "mutations
— selection" is limited, and approaches to the quan-
titative evaluation of the gentic risk of the factors
of man's environment are only being developed;
for this reason many geneticists assume that today
it would be correct only to assert that any kind of
influence on hereditary material and any amount of
mutagenic substances (except for those found in
natural conditions) in the natural environment are
impermissible. Such an assertion, however, cannot
satisfy us for the reason that the complete elimin-
ation of mutagenically active agents not only from
the natural environment, but also from the daily
sphere is impossible. Moreover, the benefit from
using some product, even a mutagenically active
one, can be just as great, but its replacement by an-
other, nonmutagenic product for similar use is im-
65
-------
possible. In this case we are forced to deliberately
agree to some enhancement of the intensity of the
mutation process in the population, and then the
most important question would be, precisely what
change in the intensity of the mutation process can
be considered permissible.
The question, what influence of a mutagenic
agent and what increase in the intensity of the mu-
tation process in a human population under the in-
fluence of environmental factors can be considered
permissible, for the most part has been worked out
for ionizing radiation [5]. A BEIR report, published
in 1972, postulated that if the genetically significant
dose of ionizing radiation is lower than the natural
background of radiation taken as a standard of
comparison, then the genetic consequences caused
by this influence will not differ quantitatively or
qualitatively from those experienced by mankind
in the history of its development. Taken as the cri-
terion of permissibility of an influence was a double
dose, i.e., the dose of radiation necessary to induce
the same number of mutations observed under nat-
ural conditions; its magnitude was calculated on an
interval of from 20 to 200 rem. Adopted as the
standard of permissible influence for the basic pop-
ulation was a dose of 170 mrem annually from all
nonmedical artificial sources of radiation.
The vast diversity of chemical agents in man's
environment, the pronounced specificity and differ-
ences in the mechanisms of their effect make the
task of determining the permissible genetic stress
much more complicated than in the case of radia-
tion agents. Approaches to evaluating the permisr
sible amounts of chemical mutagenes, the permis-
sible levels of influence on the intensity of the mu-
tation process in the human population are only
beginning to be developed.
Of course, it would be illogical to examine the
genetic risk of chemical mutagenes and radiation
in isolation of each other and not to use the positive
experience of development of this question for ra-
diation agents; therefore when evaluating the per-
missible influence of chemical mutagenes in the en-
vironment it was proposed to use the principles elab-
orated for radiation mutagenes [6,7]. A number of
authors proposed to express the degree of muta-
genic risk of factors by comparison with a radiation-
equivalent dose; even earlier we used this approach
in a work devoted to the study of the genetic haz-
ard of drugs [8].
Special units were proposed for such an evalua-
tion of the effect of chemical mutagenes: RED
roentgen equivalent dose [6], radeq (radequivalent)
[7,9], REC (rem-equivalent-chemical) [10]. Thus,
the determination of the genetic risk of chemical
mutagenes under normal environmental conditions
should be made by extrapolation of the experimental
data according to the dependency "dose-effect"
(in the opinion of most, it should be assumed as
linear) and the subsequent risk in terms of the dose
of radiation causing the same effect. Thus [9], if in
vitro there is the probability of the appearance of m
gene mutations with an exposure time to t hours of
mutagenesis at a concentration c, then the concen-
tration ex 10~3 under the conditions in vivo can
cause a genetic effect of
m
1000
X
1
or m/lOOOt per hour of exposure.
If the same effect can occur under the influence
of b rad of radioactive irradiation, then m/lOOOt is
the equivalent of b rad or equal to b "radequiv."
The magnitude thus obtained can be compared
with the already established standard of the maxi-
mum permissible dose (about 0.17 rad/year) in
excess of the spontaneous level of radiation.
A recent survey [10] prepared by a group of
specialists (Committee 17) contains some recom-
mendations on evaluating the genetic risk of chem-
ical mutagenes and determining the permissible lev-
els of influence of mutagenes on man. It is proposed
that the permissible level of total mutagenic influ-
ence of synthetic chemical compounds, as well as
of radiation, be equivalent to 5 rem/generation, in
conformity with the BEIR commission, excluding
radiation and chemical compounds used for medi-
cal purposes. With a double dose of 40 rem this
corresponds to an increase in the intensity of the
spontaneous mutation process by 12.5% [(5/40)
x 100]. The effect of any single mutagenic agent
should not exceed 10% of the total norm of 5 REC,
which is the maximum permissible for an entire
complex of mutagenic agents. It is proposed to take
this level as the absolute level, although the limi-
tation to 10% has no scientific basis, but was estab-
lished by proceeding from the consideration that the
appearance in the same place and at the same time
of 10 active mutagenes is unlikely.
The work of N. P. Bochkov et al. [11] suggested
proceeding from the indicator of the intensity of the
spontaneous mutation process when evaluating the
genetic risk of chemical mutagenes; placed at the
basis of the evaluation of the mutagenic danger of
some chemical mutagene was the extent of the in-
crease in the spontaneous level of mutations of the
test object, converted to the average dose and ex-
posure time of the given substance in the human
population. The authors proposed that in the popu-
lation aspect the maximum permissible dose be the
66
-------
average population dose that causes an increase in
the spontaneous level of not more than 0.1%; in
the individual aspect a doubling of the level of the
spontaneous mutation process should be taken as
the maximum permissible influence.
No one can doubt that no compound, even one
which is of great benefit, can be allowed to be used
if its mutagenicity exceeds the permissible level; it
is also evident that it is impermissible to use a mu-
tagenically active compound that is not of great
value for man. If the mutagenic activity of a valu-
able product of chemical synthesis is lower than the
maximum permissible level, the cost-benefit analy-
sis, the results of which should determine the vol-
ume and form of use of this product by man, be-
comes the main task.
The question of the economic evaluation of the
damage of environmental pollution has been worked
out only in its general outlines. Earlier [5], an at-
tempt was made to evaluate in dollars the cost (eco-
nomic damage) of the influence of radiation on
man. The total cost of a dose of 1 rem per person
in concepts of the cost to health was between 12
and 120 dollars. The opinion was expressed [10]
that the sample principles of evaluation can be ap-
plied to determination of the damage from chemical
mutagenes, if their activity is expressed in the units
GSC (genetically significant concentration) and
REC.
CONCLUSION
At present the need has become evident not only
for a study of the mutagenic activity of environ-
mental factors, but also for an evaluation of the
permissible amounts of mutagenic agents and the
permissible levels of the influence on the individual
organism and populations. In elaborating the prob-
lem of protecting the human genetic stock from the
harmful influence of environmental factors we
should name the following as the most importarii
tasks whose resolution will be the basis of regula-
tion of the content of genetically active compounds
in the environment:
—Development of adequate models and test ob-
jects, which are the most informative and minimize
the problem of extrapolating the data to man, for
determining the genetic activity of chemical agents
in the environment, as well as the principles of se-
lection and the sequence (priority) of their testing.
—Determination of a scientifically sound magni-
tude of the permissible influence of an entire com-
plex of mutagenic compounds and separate chemi-
cal mutagenes on the human population.
—Development of methods for evaluating the ge-
netic damage and the expenditure which society is
forced to bear as a result of the use and the presence
in the environment of a mutagenic compound.
In spite of the fact that modern approaches to
determining permissible levels of influence of chem-
ical mutagenes on the human population are in
many respects imperfect, qualitative and intuitive,
it is fundamentally important already today to de-
velop methods for regulating the content of chemi-
cal agents in the natural environment, as well as in
the production and everyday spheres. Right now it
is necessary to shift to practical measures on limit-
ing the number and volume of chemical mutagenes
coming into contact with man; the extent of limita-
tion should be determined by conducting a cost-
benefit analysis for chemical products which have
for society a pronounced benefit and do not exceed
the permissible (according to present notions) lev-
els of influence on the intensity of the mutation pro-
cess in the human population.
REFERENCES
1. "Evaluation of Genetic Risks of Environmental
Chemicals," Report of a symposium, Skokloster, Swe-
den, 1972, p. 20.
2. Filippova, L. M., and V. S. Jurkov, "Mutagenic and
Cytogenetic Activity of Some Psychotropic Drugs,"
Mutation Res., 21 (1973), p. 31.
3. L. M. Filippova, I. A. Rapoport, Yu. L. Shapiro, Yu.
A. Aleksandrovskiy, "The Mutagenic Activity of Psy-
chotropic Drugs," Genetics, 2, 6 (1975), pp. 77-82.
4. L. M. Filippova, "On the Problem of the Genetic
Danger of Environmental Pollutants," Works of the
First Soviet-American Symposium on the Comprehen-
sive Analysis of the Environment, Tbilisi, USSR, 1974,
pp. 145-151.
5. "The Effects on Populations of Exposure to Low Lev-
els of Ionizing Radiation" (BEIR Report), 1972.
6. J. F. Crow, "The Impact of Various Types of Genetic
Damage," in The Evaluation of Chemical Mutagen-
icity Data in Relation to Population Risk, 1973, pp.
1-5.
7. B. A. Bridges, "Some General Principles of Mutagen-
icity Screening and a Possible Framework for Testing
Procedures," in The Evaluation of Chemical Muta-
genicity Data in Relation to Population Risk, 1973,
pp. 221-227.
8. I. A. Rapoport, L. M. Filippova, "Differentiation of
the Mutagenic Effect of Drugs Being Synthesized for
Chemotherapy," Bulletin of the Moscow Nature So-
ciety, 4(1965), pp. 117-124.
9. B. A. Bridges, "The Three-Tier Approach to Muta-
genicity Screening and the Concept of Radiation-
Equivalent Dose," Mutation Res., 26, 4 (1974), pp.
335-340.
10. "Environmental Mutagenic Hazards," Science, 187
(1975), pp. 503-514.
11. N. P. Bochkov, R. Ya. Shram, N. P. Kuleshov, V. S.
Zhurkov, "A System for Evaluating Chemical Sub-
stances for Mutagenicity for Man: General Principles,
Practical Recommendations and Further Develop-
ments," Genetika (in press).
67
-------
BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF NON-IONIZING RADIATION
JOSEPH A. ELDER
INTRODUCTION
Reports from American laboratories describe bi-
ological effects from exposure to non-ionizing radi-
ations such as the high frequency microwaves and
radio waves and low frequencies near that of U.S.
electrical power (60 Hz). The non-ionizing electro-
magnetic radiation spectrum includes the radio,
microwave, infrared, visible and most of the ultra-
violet frequencies. The microwave region refers to
the upper part of the radio frequency spectrum
from 300 MHz to 300 GHz with corresponding
wavelengths from 100 to 0.1 cm.
The energy of a 2450 MHz photon is approxi-
mately 1 x 10~5 electron volts which is more than
one million times too low to produce the ionizations
caused by the higher frequency x-rays and gamma-
rays. Hence, the name non-ionizing electromagnetic
radiation. For comparison, a visible light photon is
about 100,000 times more energetic than a photon
at microwave frequencies.
A mechanism by which microwave radiation can
deposit energy in a biological system is by heating
[1-3]. This process may be partially explained by
2 electrophysical properties of water. The water
molecule is an electrical dipole which tends to align
itself along the lines of force in an electric field.
The other pertinent property of water is its lengthy
relaxation time which prevents the net dipole mo-
ment for water from quickly and completely align-
ing in a rapidly oscillating electric field. Microwave
heating of biological samples is due to the molecular
friction caused by water and other dipoles, such as
proteins, being unable to complete their rotational
motion in time with each oscillation of the rapidly
changing electric field. When ions are present, ionic
conduction also contributes significantly to heating.
The energy of the incident electromagnetic waves
is transformed into increased kinetic energy of the
absorbing molecules and thus to an increase in tem-
perature. This is the process that cooks food in a
microwave oven and is the principle of the thera-
peutic use of microwave radiation in diathermy units
in hospitals for heating of tissues deep within the
body.
The heating effect of microwave and radio fre-
quency radiation is the basis for the U.S. protection
guide for occupational exposure. The American Na-
tional Standards Institute (ANSI) guide of 10
mW/cm2 for radio frequency exposures, which was
recommended in 1966 and reaffirmed in 1973, is
roughly a factor of ten below thresholds of biologi-
cal damage by thermal effects [4,5]. This exposure
level also takes into account the amount of exogen-
ous heat which the human body can tolerate and
dissipate without a rise in body temperature. The
guide of 10 mW/cm2 applies to pulsed and contin-
uous wave radiation in the frequency range from
10 MHz to 100 GHz.
Establishment of an exposure guide has not quiet-
ed the concern for possible health hazards for two
reasons. First, since World War II, equipment utiliz-
ing the radio and microwave frequencies has prolifer-
ated to the extent that the potential exists for hu-
mans to be exposed to appreciable levels of these
man-made forms of radiation. Examples of this
equipment include radio and television broadcast
transmitters, radar, diathermy and blood-warming
units, cooking and drying ovens, communication
devices, and industrial machines.
Second, the U.S. guide is up to 1000 times
greater than standards established in the USSR
and Eastern Europe [6]. In contrast to our exposure
guide which is based on thermal effects, the Soviet
standard is based on their research on central ner-
vous system and behavioral effects of non-ionizing
radiation [2]. Our present research is directed to-
wards determining the reasons for the discrepancy
in exposure guides and determining whether our
safety limit applies across a wide frequency band
and to different types of modulation. We are asking
ourselves the questions: Are there subtle biological
interactions of non-ionizing radiation which cannot
be reproduced by conventional (non-microwave)
thermal means? Are there direct interactions be-
tween microwave radiation and tissues, such as
transduction by biological membranes, which can
cause physiological effects? If so, what are the phys-
ical mechanisms by which these interactions occur?
68
-------
Some experiments that bear on these questions are
described below.
CATARACTS
The heat exchange, capacity of the circulatory
system is one of the protective mechanisms for dis-
sipation of excessive thermal energy; therefore, a
tissue's susceptibility to thermal damage by micro-
wave radiation is related to its vascularity. A tissue
which is completely a-vascular is the lens of the eye.
Cataracts are produced in the lenses of experimen-
tal animals given short (single or multiple) expo-
sures to microwaves at high power densities. For
laboratory animals, investigations suggest a thresh-
old of cataract formation from acute exposures in
excess of 100 mW/cm2 [7]. Thermal effects such as
this led to the development of the U.S. exposure
guide.
At present, a threshold value for human cata-
ractogenesis cannot be determined, although it would
appear to be in excess of 100 mW/cm2 because
microwave diathermy has been used for many years
pre- and post-operatively on the eye. The usual
treatment of about 100 mW/cm2 for 20 minutes is
often given twice a day for up to 2 weeks. No ad-
verse effects of this treatment have been seen [8].
Beyond the question of the threshold value for man,
there is a controversy over the effects of different
exposure conditions such as the cumulative effects
of chronic exposure, nonthermal effects, and pulsed
versus continuous wave effects [9,10].
GENETIC EFFECTS
It is well known that the testes possess a vascular
system inadequate for rapid heat transfer and that
sperm are very sensitive to heat. Almost all studies
on the effects of microwaves on testicular tissue de-
scribe results primarily of thermal origin due to
high power density irradiation [6].
Genetic damage is a biological hazard which
must be considered for every chemical and physi-
cal agent to which humans are exposed. The
genetic code is contained in DNA (deoxyribonucleic
acid) which is the basic information molecule in
chromosomes. The significance of chromosomal
aberrations is that any induced mutations may have
somatic consequences to the recipient and genetic
consequences to the offspring. Chromosomal aber-
rations have been observed in both human and an-
imal cells in culture after irradiation (2450 MHz)
at power density levels below the U.S. exposure
guide [11,12]. Such in vitro results have to be con-
sidered with a great deal of concern. This is espe-
cially true if the effects can be produced by
irradiating the whole animal. However, a 1974 re-
view article states that "no in vivo investigations of
the effect of radio-frequency or microwaves on
mammalian chromosomes have been conducted at
power levels sufficiently low to avoid heating the
animal" [6].
A current study sponsored by EPA will provide
information on the cytogenetic effect of microwave
exposure of animals. In our facilities in the Experi-
Mental Biology Division, Chinese hamsters* are
irradiated at 2450 MHz at power densities of 5 to
30 mW/cm2. Blood cells from the animals are sub-
sequently analyzed for chromosomal abberations at
the Duke University Medical Center. Preliminary
data indicate that these levels of radiation do not
produce abnormal chromosomes in hamster lym-
phocytes. The differing in vivo and in vitro results
have yet to be reconciled.
BEHAVIOR
A simple behavioral experiment has demonstrated
that rats can "detect" pulsed microwave radia-
tion (1.2 GHz) at an average power density of 0.2
mW/cm2 [13]. The experimental animals were
placed in a box divided in half by a low fence. One
half of the box was exposed to microwaves; the
other half was shielded from radiation. Animals
tended to avoid pulsed radio waves by spending
significantly more time in the shielded half of the
shuttle box. This effect was not seen with contin-
uous wave radiation.
In a subsequent experiment an association was
found between this change in behavior and in brain
permeability [13]. Animals were exposed to micro-
wave energy under the same conditions that yielded
the behavioral modification and, immediately after
irradiation, a dye was injected into the bloodstream.
The dye, sodium fluorescein, binds to serum proteins
and is used to study the permeability of the brain
to these large molecules. An increase in fluores-
cence was seen in the brain of exposed rats com-
pared to that of controls which indicated a
breakdown in the blood-brain barrier. Interestingly,
both pulsed and continuous wave radiations caused
a change in the brain barrier, however, pulsed
radio waves produced a greater effect. Only pulsed
radiation caused a change in behavior in the shuttle
box. The authors concluded: "It appears that RF
electromagnetic energy affects brain permeability
and behavior and that pulsed energy is more effec-
tive than CW energy in affecting said brain per-
meability and behavior. These results indicate that
there is an association between behavioral modifi-
cation and brain permeability changes when similar
RF energy parameters are employed" [13].
*Chinese hamsters are the animal of choice for cytoge-
netic studies because each cell contains only 22 chromo-
somes compared to man's 46.
69
-------
Scientists at the Naval Medical Research Institute
have studied the effects of low levels (1 to 20
mW/cm2) of pulsed (2860 and 9600 MHz) and
continuous wave (2450 MHz) microwave radiation
on conditioned behavioral patterns [14]. For ex-
ample, rats trained to respond (press a lever) a
specific number of times to produce a food pellet
had a lower rate of response after microwave irra-
diation. Subtle changes in performance patterns in
this and other behavioral tasks were reported at
exposures as low as 5 mW/cm2. These effects are
interpreted as interactions of microwave radiation
at low power levels with the central nervous system
as opposed to possible thermal stress caused by
higher power densities.
Experiments conducted at the UCLA Brain Re-
search Institute have shown behavioral, electroen-
cephalographic (EEG) and biophysical/chemical
effects of very low frequency (ELF region) and
modulated very high frequency (VHP) radiations.
For example, monkeys trained to subjectively esti-
mate a five second time interval without external
cues showed a significant shortening of their esti-
mation of the time interval when exposed to a 7
Hz electric field at 10 V/m* [15-17]. In addition,
EEG recordings showed the gradual appearance of
enhanced rhythms at the 7 Hz field frequency. Sim-
ilar behavioral and EEG effects were observed at
45 and 75 Hz but higher electric fields were re-
quired. Effects at fields of 100 V/m were so per-
meating that the animal's performance was affected
24 hours later.
The EEG patterns showed two principal trends.
During irradiation, a sharp decrease was seen in the
very low brain frequencies (e.g., 1 and 2 Hz), and,
although not very pronounced, any naturally oc-
curring brain wave which matched a radiation fre-
quency seemed to be enhanced (e.g., 7 Hz) [17].
Similar effects on EEG recordings were observed in
animals exposed to a weak electromagnetic field
(1 mW/cm2) at a very high frequency (VHF,
147 MHz) amplitude modulated at brain wave fre-
quencies. That is, EEG signals recorded in specific
brain areas were enhanced in their frequency of
occurrence by the presence of the VHF field modu-
lated at the same frequency [19].
The UCLA scientists have sought the basis of
these apparently direct interactions of extremely low
(ELF) and radio frequency fields with the brain in
a series of biochemical studies. They hypothesized
that the electrical forces induced in brain tissue by
the fields could trigger local conformational changes
*Smith and Brown [18] reported that ambient levels
originating primarily from AM broadcast transmitters and
radar installations in the Washington, D.C. area approached
0.01 mW/cm2 (6 V/m).
in the macromolecular structure of the outer zone of
the neuronal membrane [20]. These changes would
result in displacement of cations bound to the mac-
romolecular glycoproteins of the outer surface of the
classical lipid bilayer membrane. The glycoproteins
are loosely arranged, highly hydrated, and have
numerous fixed negative charges. Because of its af-
finity for cations, particularly calcium and hydro-
gen, this outer zone may function as an electro-
chemical energy transducer. To study one step in
this process, experiments were conducted to meas-
ure movement of calcium ions in brain tissue in
vitro following irradiation with the VHF field am-
plitude modulated at EEG frequencies. Thus, the
exposure conditions in this experiment were like
those employed in the experiments which showed
EEG effects. Exposures to fields modulated at 9,
11, 16 and 20 Hz caused a 10 to 20% increase in
calcium efflux [21]. The significance of this change
is related to the finding that calcium binding and
release has been linked to inhibition and excitation
in the cerebral cortex.
HEART
An effect of microwave radiation on the heart
may be due to an interaction with the nervous sys-
tem of this organ. University of Utah scientists have
shown that microwaves (960 MHz, continuous
wave) change the rate at which the isolated turtle
heart beats in an unexpected way [22]. A decrease
in heart rate (bradycardia) occurred upon irradiation
in a certain low power range. Since the turtle is cold
blooded (poikilothermic), the heart beat will increase
with an increase in temperature; therefore, the de-
crease in beat rate cannot be explained by general-
ized heating of absorbed microwave energy.
The scientists hypothesized that the radiation is
stimulating remnants of the involuntary (autonomic)
nervous system. In general, if the parasympathetic
nerves are stimulated, the heart rate decreases. If
the sympathetic nerves are stimulated, the rate in-
creases. Addition of atropine, which will block the
action of the parasympathetic nerves, will cause a
transient increase in the heart beat. If the atropine-
treated heart is irradiated after the beat rate has
returned to the control level, an increase in beat
frequency occurs instead of the decrease observed
in the untreated sample. These results suggest an
interaction of low level microwave radiation with
the nervous system of the heart. The effect has been
repeated with isolated mammalian (rat) hearts [23].
Pronounced bradycardia was observed within two
minutes after irradiation of 1.5 to 2.5 mW/cm3.
Furthermore, the heart rate showed both a regular
decrease and temporarily stopped for 5 to 12 sec-
onds.
70
-------
GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT
Although mammalian experiments have generally
failed to show growth and development defects due
to microwave radiation at low power, exposures of
the darkling beetle (Tenebrio molitor} to 9 GHz ra-
diation has caused teratological damage at dosages
as low as 0.4mWhr (0.2 mW applied for 2 hours).
The authors suggest the possibility that microwave
radiation is a cumulative teratogen in the beetle
[24]. This report reproduced earlier research
[25,26] describing such damage and extended the
threshold value for teratogenesis to a lower value.
Still to be answered is the question of how the micro-
waves interacted with the insect larvae and pro-
duced the effect (discrete holes in the elytra).
Transient or localized thermal effects have not been
eliminated as a mechanism of interaction in these
experiments.
RF HEARING
Some humans can "hear" microwaves, a phe-
nomenon called RF (radio frequency) hearing
[27-29]. The sensations are similar tq clicks, buzzes,
pops and hisses which are localized slightly behind
the head on the sagital midline. The RF induced re-
sponse is an auditory sensation which is distinct
from and not dependent upon normal air conduction
hearing. To hear microwave energy, it must be
pulsed. The sensation is dependent on peak power
of the pulse and has an average power threshold of
about 0.4 mW/cm2. Perception occurs upon irra-
diation of pulsed ultra high frequencies (UHF) at
300-3000 MHz.
Recent research has suggested that the sensation
is due to a transient thermal expansion phenomenon.
[30]. A microphone suspended in a container of
water irradiated by pulsed microwaves delivered an
audio output similar to that "heard" by directly
radiated human subjects. Since water changes den-
sity as its temperature is altered, the miniscule
thermalizations produced in it upon absorption of
the pulsed microwaves were sufficient to initiate
small but detectable changes of hydraulic pressure.
Other investigators have demonstrated sonic trans-
duction of pulsed microwaves in materials lacking
water [31]. The importance of these studies is re-
lated to an elucidation of one way non-ionizing elec-
tromagnetic radiation at low power levels that inter-
acts with a biological system.
Some question the physiological significance of
RF hearing. Others wonder at the possibility of psy-
chological effects in people subjected to pulsed RF
energy (which elicits the hearing sensations) who
have no understanding of where or how the buz-
zes, clicks and hisses originate in their heads. On
the other hand, the RF hearing phenomenon may
lead to a means of communication with the deaf.
EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES
The Chinese hamsters used in the cytogenetic
study mentioned earlier were irradiated in an ex-
posure facility which operates at 2450 MHz, see
Figure 1. Within the large chamber is a smaller one
in which the animals were irradiated under con-
trolled temperature and humidity conditions. The
animal exposure box is constructed of polystyrene
because this material is essentially transparent to
the radiation and it also provides good temperature
control. The inside walls of the chamber are lined
with material that absorbs microwave energy and
prevents reflections. Such a facility is called an ane-
choic chamber (no reflections or echoes). A similar
radiation facility operates at 9 GHz and is used to
study the effects of a pulsed microwave source, such
as radar, on biological samples.
Figure 1. The 2450 MHz far-field exposure facility. The
horn antenna (top) and the environmental ex-
posure chamber (center) are visible in the
shielded anechoic room. (Used by permission
of Dr. Carl F. Blackman and the New York Acad-
emy of Sciences.)
71
-------
In addition to the cytogenetic work, a variety oi
other experiments have been done, or are currently
in progress, with these exposure chambers. These
include growth and mutation studies with bacteria
[32,33], yeast and fungi, respiration studies with
mitochondria [34], immunological studies with ani-
mals and blood lymphocytes in culture [35], neuro-
physiological and behavioral effects in rats, and
growth and developmental experiments with mice
and rats.
A different type of irradiation system employs a
coaxial air line, see Figure 2. This apparatus has
been used to study the effects of microwave radia-
tion in the frequency range from 2000 to 4000
MHz on respiration and oxidative phosphorylation
in mitochondria [36]. The advantages of this sys-
tem over the anechoic chamber are irradiation over
a wide frequency range and easier and more accu-
rate measurement of the power absorbed by the
sample.
A final example of the EPA microwave exposure
systems, called a crossed-beam exposure/detection
apparatus, see Figure 3, combines microwave ex-
posure of a sample with simultaneous spectropho-
tometric observation. This system offers a means of
detecting transient effects of microwave radiation,
i.e., those effects which may occur during the actual
irradiation but do not persist upon termination of
the exposure. Some of the experiments with irradi-
ated protein and enzymes have been pertinent to es-
tablishing a mechanism of molecular interaction
[37,38] as well as the use of 2450 MHz radiation to
rapidly warm blood to body temperature before
transfusion [39].
In one of the above studies, irradiation of ani-
mals with a frequency of 2450 MHz at power den-
sities < 30 mW/cm2 appears to stimulate the blood
cells called lymphocytes to undergo cellular trans-
formation to lymphoblasts. Experiments are under-
way to determine the threshold level of radiation
which causes the effect in these cells which are in-
volved in immunological reactions.
Figure 2. Coaxial Air Line Microwave Exposure System. The 10-cm air line (left), pump (center), and modified oxygen
electrode cell (right) are shown. Hypodermic thermistors are inserted into the sample to measure tempera-
ture. The microwave generator is not shown.
72
-------
SUMMARY
The U.S. exposure guide for occupational ex-
posure to non-ionizing radiation which is based on
thermal effects is up to 1000 times greater than
standards established in the USSR. In contrast to
the basis for our guide, Soviet standards as low as
10 ^W/cm2 are based on their research on central
nervous system and behavioral effects. Exposures
at this level will not produce thermal effects accord-
ing to our present understanding of the interactions
of non-ionizing radiation with biological systems
Our present research program is directed towards
resolving the discrepancy in the safety limits and
determining whether our exposure guide applies
across a wide frequency range and to different types
of modulation (e.g., pulsed versus continuous wave)
Reports from American laboratories have been
reviewed which describe biological effects on the
central nervous system (behavior, neurophysiology
and neurochermstry), heart, chromosomes, and de-
velopment, in addition to the RF hearing phenom-
enon, irom exposure to low levels (< 10 mW/cm2)
of non-ionizing electromagnetic radiation. The re-
sults at these low power levels suggest that they are
apparently separate from generalized heating injury
However some of the observations may eventually
prove to be due to thermal effects because non-uni-
form distribution of the electromagnetic energy can
cause the temperature in localized areas to exceed
crjical values. At the present time, these reports
offer evidence for direct interactions of radio fre-
quency and extremely low frequency electromagnetic
rnln, ! h0l°81C? Systems' Future studie* will
attempt to define the mechanisms of interactions
by which ow power levels of non-ionizing radiations
cause biological effects. Concurrently, it is impor-
tant to study the possible consequences of long-term
Z feV?i e™ronmental exP°*ure- The research in
effect-! f WlU.attemPt to iden% those biological
ettects of non-ionizing radiation which may be haz-
73
-------
ardous to human health and form a data base upon
which to critically judge the U.S. exposure guide.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The author thanks his colleagues Daniel F. Ca-
hill, Carl F. Blackman, John W. Allis, Claude M.
Weil, and Charles G. Liddle for reviewing the manu-
script.
REFERENCES
1. Johnson, C. C. and Guy, A. W., Proceedings IEEE
60, 692-718, 1972.
2. Johnson, C. C., J. Microwave Power 8, 367-388, 1973.
3. Cleary, S. F., Health Physics 25, 387-404, 1973.
4. American National Standards Institute, Safety Level
of Electromagnetic Radiation with Respect to Per-
sonnel (C95.1), IEEE, New York, N. Y., 1974.
5. Department of Labor, Occupational Safety and Health
Administration, Codes of Federal Regulations, Title
29, Section 1910.97, Nonionizing Radiation, July 1,
1974.
6. Michaelson, S. M., Env. Health Perspectives 8, 133-
155, 1974.
7. Milroy, W. C. and Michaelson, S. M., Aerospace Med.
43, 67-75, 1972.
8. Merriam, G. R., Jr., N. Y. State J. Med. 74, 2036-
2037, 1974.
9. Zaret, M. M. ibid. 74, 2032-2034, 1974.
10. N. Y. State J. Med. 74, 2034-2048, 1974.
11. Chen, K. M., Samuel, A. and Hoopingarner, R., Env.
Letters 6, 37-46, 1974.
12. Guru, B. S. and Chen, K. M., Abstract, Int. Union of
Radio Science Meeting, U. of 111., Urbana, HI., June,
1975, p. 102.
13. Frey, A. H., Feld, S. R. and Frey, B., Ann. N. Y.
Acad. Sci. 247, 433-439, 1975.
14. Thomas, J. R., Finch, E.D., Fulk, D. W. and Burch,
L. S., Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 247, 425-432, 1975.
15. Gavalas, R. J., Walter, D. O., Hamer, J. and Adey,
W. R., Brain Research 18, 491-501, 1970.
16. Gavalas-Medici, R. J. and Magdoleno, S. R., Office
of Naval Research Technical Report, NTIS #AD-
A008-404/6GA, 1975.
17. Office of Telecommunications Policy, Third Report
on Program for Control of Electromagnetic Pollution
of the Environment: The Assessment of Biological
Hazards of Nonionizing Electromagnetic Radiation,
April, 1975.
18. Smith, S. W. and Brown, D. G., U. S. Dept. of Health,
Education and Welfare Publication No. (FDA) 72-8015,
BRH/DEP 72-5, Nov. 1971.
19. Bawin, S. M., Gavalas-Medici, R. J. and Adey, W. R.,
Brain Research 58, 365-384, 1973.
20. Adey, W. R., Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 247, 15-20, 1975.
21. Bawin, S. M., Kaczmarek, L. K. and Adey, W. R.,
ibid. 247, 74-81, 1975.
22. Lords, J. L., Durney, C. H., Borg, A. M. and Tinney,
C. E., IEEE Trans. Microwave Theory Tech. MTT-21,
834-836, 1973.
23. Olson, R. G., Durney, C. H., Lords, J. L. and John-
son, C. C., Proceedings Microwave Power Symposium,
U. of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, May,
1975, p. 76-78.
24. Liu, L. M., Rosenbaum, F. J. and Pickard, W. F.,
IEEE Trans. Microwave Theory Tech., Nov., 1975,
in press.
25. Lindauer, G. A., Liu, L. M., Skewes, G. W. and
Rosenbaum, F. J., IEEE Trans. Microwave Theory
Tech. MTT-22, 790-793, 1974.
26. Carpenter, R. L. and Livstone, E. L., ibid. MTT-19,
173-178, 1971.
27. Frey, A. H., Aerospace Med. 32, 1140-1142, 1961.
28. Frey, A. H., J. Appl. Physiol. 17, 689-692, 1962.
29. Frey, A. H. and Messenger, R., Science 181, 356-358,
1973.
30. Foster, K. R. and Finch, E. D., ibid. 185, 256-258,
1974.
31. Sharp, J. C., Grove, H. M. and Gandhi, O. P., IEEE
Trans. Microwave Theory Tech. MTT-22, 583-584,
1974.
32. Blackman, C. F., Benane, S. G., Weil, C. M. and
Ali, J. S., Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 247, 352-366, 1975.
33. Blackman, C. F., Surles, M. C. and Benane, S. G.,
Abstract, Int. Union of Radio Science (URSI) Meet-
ing, U. of Colo., Boulder, Colo., Oct. 1975.
34. Elder, J. A. and Ali, J. S., Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 247,
251-262, 1975.
35. Smialowicz, R. J., Abstract, Int. Union of Radio
Science (URSI) Meeting, U. of Colo., Boulder, Colo.,
Oct., 1975.
36. Elder, J. A., Ali, J. S. and Long, M. D., Abstract,
ibid., Oct., 1975.
37. Allis, J. W., Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 247, 312-322, 1975.
38. Allis, J. W. and Fromme, M. L., Abstract, Int. Union
of Radio Science (URSI) Meeting, U. of Colo., Boul-
der, Colo., Oct., 1975.
39. Ward, T. R., Allis, J. W. and Elder, J. A., J. Micro-
wave Power 10, 315-320, 1975.
74
-------
POLLUTANTS AND PROGENY
K. DIANE COURTNEY
A very important aspect of the Comprehensive
Analysis of the Environment is the consideration of
the effects of pollutants on progeny. A pollutant is
defined as any chemical or physical agent which
adversely alters the development of an organism and
therefore must be considered to be present in the
organism's environment in excessive amounts. This
immediately generates these questions: 1. What are
the agents? 2. What alterations in development are
being considered? 3. What are the amounts that
are considered excessive?
There have been a number of examples of mal-
development in human beings as a result of exces-
sive exposures to these agents during critical stages
of development. There have been epidemics of ana-
tomical malformations, lexicological problems such
as porphyria, and functional deviations such as cere-
bral palsy-type syndromes. The progeny constitute
a unique sub-group of the human population. They
are in a dynamic state of development and the re-
sponse to an environmental agent is dependent on
the stage of development as well as the dose and
toxicologic properties of the agent. The following
examples suggest the range of the problems encoun-
tered.
A number of years ago, Hertig studied very early
human embryos from the time of fertilization up to
14 days of development [1]. He found that 40% of
these embryos were abnormal and estimated that it
would have been impossible for them to survive. Of
course, there are a number of reasons that might ex-
plain what went wrong during these first few days
of development. But when the question was asked
— could toxic agents be the cause? — there were
very few answers, because very few studies have
been undertaken during this period of development.
However, the study by Sieber should be considered
[2].
C-14-DDT or H-3-nicotine were administered
orally to rabbits that were six days pregnant and to
non-pregnant rabbits also. One hour after the nico-
tine administration and 24 hours after DDT ad-
ministration samples of maternal plasma, some of
the uterine secretions, the endometrium and the de-
veloping blastocysts were taken for analyses. These
results are presented in Table 1. The plasma levels
of C-14-DDT in the pregnant and non-pregnant
rabbits did not differ greatly. The endometrium of
the non-pregnant rabbit had slightly more DDT
than that of the pregnant rabbit. The significant
finding was the high content of C-14-DDT in the
uterine secretions of the pregnant rabbit since none
was found in the non-pregnant rabbit. Of note was
the C-14-DDT that was detected in the blastocysts.
The findings with H-3-nicotine were quite similar.
There was a high content of H-3-nicotine in the
uterine secretions of the pregnant rabbit compared
to the non-pregnant rabbit. The blastocysts con-
tained a measureable amount. Even though the
blastocysts had not yet implanted and thus did not
have the placenta to supply nutrients or transport
toxic agents, the blastocysts accumulated both C-14-
DDT and H-3-nicotine. It is quite conceivable that
some of the very early reproductive failures could
be due to toxic agents affecting the blastocyst ai
this early stage of development. The data to evaluate
the effects of pollutants at this stage of development
are not available; many studies need to be done.
TABLE 1. ADMINISTRATION OF C-14-DDT OR H-3-
NICOTINE TO 6 DAY PREGNANT RABBITS,
PERCENT OF ADMINISTERED DOSE*
C-14-DDT
H-3-Nicotine
Item
Nonpregnant Pregnant Nonpregnant Pregnant
Plasma 0.91 0.84 1.18 1.15
Endometrium 0.88 0.47 0.79 1.49
Uterine secretions none 3.60 1.84 10.71
Blastocysts -- 0.13 - 2.26
*,From Sieber, S. M., and Fabro, S., JPET 176, 65-75,
1971.
The next major phase of development to consider
is the embryonic period. It is during this phase that
the placenta forms and organogenesis occurs. And
this time, insults to the embryo from pollutants
could result in anatomical malformations. They
can be called anatomical malformations, congenital
malformations, birth defects or teratogenic effects.
The most publicized example of a teratogenic agent
was thalidomide. In the early 1960's, thalidomide
caused birth defects mainly of the arms and legs in
many children. Thalidomide was a therapeutic agent
75
-------
and would not be considered an environmental pol-
lutant; however, it is an example of a major terato-
genic agent affecting quite a large population. It
took a number of years before thalidomide was
documented as the causative agent. If the malfor-
mations had been more subtle and less obvious, one
questions how long it would have taken to detect
the increase in the incidence of malformed infants
and to establish the cause.
Kelsey [1] reported that to detect an increase in
the incidence of a malformation from 1 per 1,000
to 5 per 1,000 with a 90% certainty, it would re-
quire a sample size of 2,795 exposures to the com-
pound at the critical time in pregnancy and a com-
parable group of non-exposed individuals. Thus, it
is difficult to detect an increase in the incidence of
a malformation in the human being and relate it to
a single cause.
There have been a few other situations in the
human experience that have presented some infor-
mation on the fragility of the developing fetus. One
of these was the use of the atomic bomb at Hiro-
shima and Nagasaki in Japan. The major develop-
mental consequence of this radiation exposure was
microcephaly and mental retardation [3,4].
Microcephaly and mental retardation have also
been produced in animals upon radiation exposure
of the embryo or fetus [5]. A very interesting find-
ing of such studies was the potential mechanism by
which the microcephaly and/or mental retardation
were produced. Ionizing radiation selectively killed
cells in the brain when they were dividing. Thus,
whole generations of cells were eliminated from the
brain during development. Pathologic investigations
showed that in some sections of brains of irradiated
rats the nerve cells were not in orderly patterns as
expected, but displayed a random mixed-up order.
It was not surprising to find that animals such as
these had behavioral disorders and decreased learn-
ing capacity. These effects of radiation can take
place during the period of organogenesis as well as
the fetal period since refinement of the develop-
ment of the nerve cells takes place after organo-
genesis. This period of fetal development is a very
hazardous period to the developing organism even
though anatomical malformations are not produced.
Effects on the fetus are often not detected until
the newborn is examined. An example of this oc-
curred in Japan in the late 1960's [6]. Some Japan-
ese babies were born with dark brown coca-cola col-
ored patches on their skin and were called cola-ba-
bies. They were part of a larger problem known as
"Yusho" or rice-oil disease. Rice-oil was contam-
inated with tetrachlorobiphenyls (Kanechlor 400).
This rice-oil was used for cooking so that the food
was contaminated with tetrachlorobiphenyls. There
were nine cola-babies available for study. Two were
stillborn. The seven live born were underweight and
small. Laboratory tests showed no abnormalities
and the skin faded in color within a few months.
Analysis of the skin disclosed the presence of the
tetrachlorobiphenyls. Hopefully, follow-up studies of
these children will be available soon.
Another incident of this type but much more ex-
tensive and severe occurred a number of years ago
in Turkey when some wheat that was treated with
the fungicide hexachlorobenzene was used for mak-
ing bread instead of for agriculture purposes. The
contaminated bread was eaten by many people in a
number of villages.
The adults and juveniles displayed symptoms of
hexachlorobenzene toxicity manifested mainly as
porphyria, a disorder of porphyrin metabolism. Be-
tween 1955 and 1959, there were an estimated 3,000
cases of porphyria with a mortality rate of 10%.
This does not include the disease called "pink sore"
which affected infants of mothers that had porphyria
or mothers that were exposed to hexachlorobenzene.
Over 500 children were treated at one hospital and
the incidence of mortality was excessively high
which nearly eliminated all the children between the
ages of two and five years [7,8,9].
There was also a very high incidence of stillbirths
and early infant deaths. The cause of death was not
known. The infants were probably born with depos-
its of hexachlorobenzene in their bodies; this was
then compounded with the hexachlorobenzene that
was demonstrated to be in the milk of the mothers.
There have been a number of reports of pesticides
and other environmental agents present in human
milk. This is a food supply that cannot be readily
monitored or regulated.
A separate incidence in France a few years ago
showed that hexachlorobenzene could also be found
in cow's milk. Cows were fed endives that were
grown in a field treated with PCNB (pentachloro-
nitrobenzene), another fungicide. Hexachloroben-
zene was a contaminant in PCNB. The hexachloro-
benzene accumulated in the endive; the cows ate
the endive and the hexachlorobenzene was detected
in the cow's milk [10],
To eliminate problems with hexachlorobenzene,
it would be easy to restrict it from use as a fungi-
cide. However, it has been shown in the last few
years that hexachlorobenzene is a contaminant in
a number of products other than PCNB. It is crea-
ted during the manufacturing process of these other
chemicals, carried throughout the entire procedure,
and is present in the final product. It is very diffi-
cult to eliminate unwanted by-products such as
hexachlorobenzene.
To further evaluate the potential problems that
76
-------
hexachlorobenzene might cause, some laboratory
experiments were done in mice [11]. The mice were
treated for 4 or 5 days during gestation with PCNB
containing 10% hexachlorobenzene as shown in
Table 2. The fetuses were removed and analyzed for
pesticide content. It was very interesting to see that
the fetuses accumulated hexachlorobenzene but not
PCNB. After 4 doses, there were 4.9 ppm hexa-
chlorobenzene in the fetuses. After the fifth dose,
the fetal content rose to 7.9 ppm, almost doubling.
The hexachlorobenzene was being deposited in the
fetuses faster than they could eliminate it. The fe-
tuses would be born with a large supply of hexa-
chlorobenzene stored in their bodies. This is one
example of an environmental agent that can ad-
versely affect the development of human beings dur-
ing both the fetal and neonatal periods.
TABLE 2. PREGNANT MICE TREATED WITH PCNB
CONTAINING 10% HEXACHLOROBENZENE*
Daily dose
Fetal content, ppm
PCNB
Hexachlorobenzene
After 4
After 5
0.10
0.02
4.90
7.85
*From Courtney, K. D., Copeland, M., and Robbins,
A., Tox. Appl. Pharmacol. 1975, in press.
There is another tragic example of neonatal prob-
lems arising from prenatal exposure to a compound
that is more toxic to the fetus than the mother. This
problem was first detected in the fishing village of
Minamata, Japan [12]. Food contaminated with
methylmercury produced methylmercury poisoning
and this became known as Minamata Disease. Preg-
nant women did not readily display signs of Mina-
mata Disease, but when the children were born, it
was obvious that they had been exposed to the toxic
properties of methylmercury as fetuses.
The children displayed symptoms similar to those
seen in cerebral palsy. Gross anatomical malforma-
tions were not the problem as much as the central
nervous system malfunctions. Animal studies have
shown that methylmercury crosses the placenta
readily and is preferentially deposited in the fetus
especially the fetal brain [13]. Due to this preferen-
tial deposition, the mother was often spared from
being affected. The children that have Minamata
Disease will never recover and assume a normal life.
The experience at Minamata, Japan should have
alerted the world to the problems that could be en-
countered with methylmercury poisoning. But in
1972, in Iraq, there was another epidemic. It was
due to eating homemade bread from wheat that had
been treated with methylmercury as a fungicide.
Many infants showed the cerebral palsy-type symp-
toms indicating central nervous system damage. One
small group of 15 infants and their mothers was
available for long term extensive studies [14,15]
and the following observations are quoted from the
report:
1. Pregnancy: All infants were born at full term.
No premature births in the group.
2. Delivery: In five cases the delivery was unduly
prolonged.
3. Sex of newborn: There were eight males and
seven females; a normal ratio.
4. Feeding: All infants were breast fed even
though the mothers were advised not to.
5. Early neonatal period: No difficulty in sucking
or swallowing. There was no cyanosis, jaundice,
fever or convulsion.
6. Congenital malformations: There were none.
7. Weight and length: These parameters were
normal.
8. Head circumference: Three of the infants had
small heads.
9. Excessive crying: There were fretfulness, irri-
tability and excessive crying in six infants.
10. Sight: Four infants were completely blind. One
was partially blind. There was nystagmus in one in-
fant and strabismus in two. The reaction of the pupil
to light was absent in two cases.
11. Hearing: Four of the infants had severely im-
paired hearing.
12. Muscle tone: Muscle tone was increased in
three infants and decreased in two.
13. Muscle power: Four infants had severe gen-
eralized paralysis.
14. Tendon reflexes: Five infants had hyperactive
reflexes.
15. Mental powers: Four infants seemed to have
decreased mental powers.
Three of the severely affected infants were ex-
posed only in the last three months of gestation in-
dicating that the third trimester might be the period
when the human fetus was most sensitive to methyl-
mercury poisoning. Although this study dealt with a
small group of infants, many more were involved
in the epidemic. Detailed data on the others are not
available since most lived in rural areas which lim-
ited the number of cases that reached the hospitals
and were available for study. Quite recently there
have been similar outbreaks of methylmercury
poisoning in Pakistan and Guatemala due to con-
taminated wheat being used for bread.
Methylmercury poisoning in infants presents a
situation that is similar to cerebral palsy. Cerebral
palsy is now considered to be just one group of a
wide spectrum of defects and disorders resulting
from damage to the brain before, during or after
birth. This spectrum includes not only cerebral palsy
but also mental retardation, epilepsy, sensory de-
fects, learning and behavioral disorders and mini-
77
-------
mal brain dysfunction. When brain injury results in
the inability to control muscles normally, the diag-
nosis of cerebral palsy is made.
This brain injury can result from many causes
such as heredity, encephalitis, breech delivery, as
well as irradiation, and anoxia. It is difficult to de-
termine how many of the causes can be directly re-
lated to environmental agents. It is not known
exactly how many individuals in the United States
have cerebral palsy. The estimates range from 500,-
000 to 600,000 individuals. Three to six infants in
every thousand have cerebral palsy which amounts
to 10,000 to 20,000 babies per year. Cerebral palsy
is one of the most common disabling problems of
childhood [1],
Another postnatal problem that is quite prevalent
in the United States is lead toxicity in young child-
ren [16]. It occurs in preschool age children that
live in the older homes in large cities. These homes
have many layers of old paint that have a high con-
tent of lead. This paint peels and flakes off and the
children either eat the paint directly or get the paint
on their hands and then put their hands in their
mouths. The lead levels build up in their bodies and
many suffer from lead poisoning. Signs of lead pois-
oning in these children are failure to grow and
thrive, anemia, hyperactivity, porphyria and mini-
mal brain dysfunction. Many of these signs have
been noted before as manifestations of toxicity
caused by other agents such as hexachlorobenzene
[17,18].
Children with porphyria or other aspects of lead
poisoning do poorly in school and have many social
problems. The effects may not be entirely reversible
upon removal of lead from their environment. Again
it seems that the very young infant is more suscep-
tible to lead poisoning than either older children or
adults. The younger the infant, the more readily
the lead affects the brain [19].
In the last 10 years, massive screening programs
have been undertaken in the United States to detect
children with high levels of lead in their blood. In
1971, 200,000 preschool age children in New York
City were examined for lead toxicity and about
2,000 new cases were detected [20]. Attempts have
been made to reduce the lead content of their en-
vironment.
The toxicity of lead had been known for a very
long time. At the turn of the century, lead was used
as a home remedy to induce abortions for unwanted
pregnancies. Gilfillan, a sociologist, has put forth an
interesting thesis that the fall of Rome was caused
by lead toxicity [21]. The Romans stored wine in
lead vessels. The acid nature of the wine leached
the lead from the containers. It did not take long
to poison a whole nation. Since lead causes infer-
tility in both men and women and also causes abor-
tions, stillbirths and postnatal maldevelopment, it
can be considered that the Romans really drank
themselves into extinction.
In this report, congenital malformations was not
defined because there is lack of agreement on a pre-
cise definition. When a defect is severe, there is no
debate on the issue. When the defect is a slight de-
viation from normal and does not influence the
quality of life, then it is difficult to establish the
limits of normal versus defective. However, one can
adopt the definition put forth by the National Foun-
dation which defines a birth defect as "a structural
or metabolic disorder present at birth whether genet-
ically determined or a result of environmental in-
fluence during fetal life" [1].
If only the more serious defects are considered,
then it is estimated that about seven babies out of
every 100 have a defect recognizable at birth. An
additional 1% are detected by the end of the
first year of life. It has been estimated that 1.4 mil-
lion children are born every year throughout the
world with one or more significant birth defects.
Genetic disorders or viral infections can be the
cause for many; but in over 50% of the cases,
there is no known cause of the malformation. It is
not known how many environmental agents might
cause maldevelopment.
Thus far, a number of agents have been identified
that affect the developing human being at various
stages of development. The effects can be malfor-
mations, functional deviations, or death. These ad-
verse effects attest that environmental agents are
present in excessive amounts in relation to the de-
veloping organism. In the situations in which there
has been damage to the developing human being by
accidental exposure, the dose is usually unknown.
Many attempts are made to arrive at a reasonable
estimate. This is then compared to the known ex-
posure levels of laboratory animals. Animals rarely
respond to exactly the same dose levels as human
beings or other animals. However, they each have
a dose range in which they respond. By establish-
ing enough of these dose ranges and comparing ef-
fective levels in both experimental animals and
human beings, limits can be set on levels which
would be considered excessive for developing or-
ganisms. The biggest problem that challenges the
scientist is to achieve the ability to predict which
compounds might present problems.
REFERENCES
1. Apgar, V. and Beck, J., Is My Baby All Right?, Simon
and Schuster, 1974.
2. Sieber, S. M. and Fabro, S., Identification of drugs in
the preimplantation blastocyst and in the plasma,
uterine secretion and urine of the pregnant rabbit. J.
Pharm. Exp. Therap. 176, 65-75, 1971.
78
-------
3. Wood, J. W., Keehn, R, J., Kawamoto, S., and John-
son, K. G., The growth and development of children
exposed in utero to the atomic bombs in Hiroshima
and Nagasaki. Amer. J. Pub. Health 57, 1374-1380,
1967.
4. Belsky, J. L. and Blot, W. J., Adult stature in relation
to childhood exposure to the atomic bombs of Hiro-
shima and Nagasaki. Amer. J. Pub. Health 65, 489-494,
1975.
5. Brizzee, K. R., Quantitative histological studies on
delayed effects of prenatal x-irradiation in rat cerebral
cortex. J. Neuropath, and Exp. Neurology XXVI, 584-
599, 1967.
6. Miller, R. W., Cola-colored babies. Chlorobiphenyl
poisoning in Japan. Teratology 4, 211-213, 1971.
7. Peters, H. A., Johnson, S. A. M., Cam, S., Oral, S.,
Muftu, Y., and Ergene, T., Hexachlorobenzene-in-
duced porphyria: Effect of chelation on the disease,
porphyrin and metal metabolism. Amer. J. Med. Sci.
251, 314, 1966.
8. Schmid, R., Cutaneous porphyria in Turkey. New
Eng. J. Med. 263, 397-398, 1960.
9. Cam, C. and Nigogosyan, G., Acquired toxic porphy-
ria cutanea tarda due to hexachlorobenzene. J.A.M.A.
183, 88-91, 1963.
10. Goursand, J., Luquet, F. M., Boudier, J. F., and Ca-
salis, J., Sur la pollution du lait par les residues
d'hexachlorobenzene (HCB). Industr. Alim. Agr. 89,
31-35, 1972.
11. Courtney, K. D., Copeland, M. P., Robbins, A., The
effects of pentachloronitrobenzene, hexachlorobenzene
and related compounds on fetal development. Tox.
Appl. Pharm. 1975, in press.
12. Smith, W. E. and Smith, A. E., Minamata, Holt, Rine-
hart and Winston, N. Y., 1975.
13. Null, D. H., Gartside, P. S. and Wei, E., Methylmer-
cury accumulation in brains of pregnant, non-preg-
nant and fetal rats. Life Sciences 12, 65-72, 1973.
14. Bakir, F., Damluji, S. F., Amin-Zaki, L., Murtadha,
M., Khalidi, A., Al-Rawi, N. Y., Tikriti, S., and
Dhahir, H. I., Clarkson, T. W., Smith, J. C., and
Doherty, R. A., Methylmercury poisoning in Iraq.
Science 181, 230-241, 1973.
15. Amin-Zaki, L., Elhassani, S., Majeed, M. A., Clarkson,
T. W., Doherty, R. A., Greenwood, M., Intra-uterine
methylmercury poisoning in Iraq. Pediatrics 54, 587-
595, 1974.
16. Scanlon, J., Human fetal hazard from environmental
pollution with certain non-essential trace elements.
Clinical Pediat. 11, 135-141, 1972.
17. Lin-Fu, J. S., Vulnerability of children to lead expo-
sure and toxicity. New Eng. J. Med. 289, 1229-1233
and 1289-1293, 1973.
18. Wender, P. H. The minimal brain dysfunction syn-
drome. Ann. Rev. Medicine 26, 45-61, 1975.
19. Green, M. and Gruener, U., Transfer of lead via plac-
enta and milk. Res. Communications in Chem. Pathol.
and Pharmacol. 8, 735-738, 1974.
20. Eidsvold, G., Mustalish, A. and Novick, L. F., The
New York City Department of Health: Lessons in a
lead poisoning control program. Amer. J. Pub. Health
64, 956-961, 1974.
21. Gilfillan, S. C., Lead poisoning and the fall of Rome.
J. Occup. Medicine 7, 53-60, 1965.
79
-------
THE PROBLEM OF COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF THE
DANGER OF THE EMERGENCE OF REMOTE CONSEQUENCES OF
THE EFFECTS OF VARIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
N. F. IZMEROV and I. V. SANOTSKIY
STUDY OF THE REPRODUCTIVE FUNCTION
UNDER THE EFFECT OF CHEMICAL
AND PHYSICAL FACTORS
Chemistry and Ionizing Radiation
It is well known that under the conditions of pro-
duction and in daily life many physical and chemi-
cal influences are combined. This occurs against
the background of differing degrees of the balance
of nutrition which in itself may be the cause of
change in gonads and embryos, as well as against
the background of the frequent use of medicines,
many of which have an effect on the reproduction
processes of subsequent generations. In most pub-
lications the idea of summation and the taking of
algorithms of effects in the indicated cases predom-
inates. However, the actual combinations of muta-
genes may have different consequences.
Thus, for example, when studying the influence
of caffeine on the reproductive ability of cells of
Hela and the fibroblast-like cells of the Chinese
hampster following x-ray irradiation there was dem-
onstrated a decrease in the survival rate of cells by
two to five times and a doubling of the number of
aberrant anaphases [1]. On the other hand, under
certain conditions the combined effect of ethyleni-
mine and ionizing radiation decreased the muta-
genic effectiveness [2]. A protective effect, given
the combined influence of two mutagenic factors,
has been described for the combined influence of
x-rays with streptomycin [3], with nitrosomethyl
carbimide [4], and for other combinations. A fun-
damental role is played by the intensities of the in-
fluence [5].
The Combined and Complex Effect of Chemical
Mutagenes Can Also Have Ambiguous Results
A number of researchers have indicated that, for
example, caffeine, while not causing chromosomal
aberrations at the point of growth of legume roots
and the somatic cells of the Chinese hampster, was
capable of increasing the number of chromosomal
rearrangements following the influence of mitomy-
cin C, thio-TEF and others [6]. At the same time
caffeine decreased the frequency of chromosomal
aberrations induced by an alkylating compound —
dipin — in the hepatocytes of rats [7], and did not
increase the induction of dominant lethal mutations
when combined with methylmethane sulfonate, TEF
and others [2]. At the same time it was shown that
the combined effect (in aqueous solution and simul-
taneously from the gas phase) of such supermuta-
genes as ethylenimine, dimethyl sulfate and nitro-
somethyl carbamide led to a decrease in the fre-
quency of mutations when compared with the ef-
fect of a single mutagene [8].
It is obvious, however, that when determining the
danger of environmental factors, research conducted
on mammals is of the greatest importance. Un-
fortunately there has not been enough of this re-
search. For example, in animals subjected to a six
month influence of formaldehyde in drinking water
(at a concentration of 0.1, 0.01 and 0.005 mg/1
with a maximum permissible concentration [MFC]
of 0.5 mg/1) and in the air (four hour exposure
five days a week at concentrations of 0.5, 0.25 and
0.12 mg/m3 with an MFC in the air of the work
area of 0.5 mg/m3), hystochemical disturbances in
the testicles without an overall toxic effect were
noted [2].
As a counterexample we cite the data of our In-
stitute on the effect of tetramethylthiuram disulfide
(TMTD) in its separate and complex ingestion in
the stomach (with drinking water — 20.0 and 0.8
mg/1) and when inhaled (the MFC level — 0.8
mg/m3)-
V. N. Zhilenko [9] demonstrated that the com-
plex influence of TMTD at sub-threshold levels
(0.8 mg/1 with water and 0.9 mg/m3 when inhaled),
which were established in separate ingestion, caused
an intensification of the overall toxic effect, judging
from the functional changes in the composition of
the red blood, the state of the nervous system and
kidneys. At the same time there were no gonado-
tropic and mutagenic effects at the indicated levels
80
-------
either in the separate or the complex ingestion with
water and air.
It should be recalled that, according to data of
the literature, TMTD affects the reproductive func-
tion [10].
Thus, the question of the general laws of the
combined and comprehensive effect of environmen-
tal factors [11-13] cannot be considered resolved if
we proceed from specific types of effects.
CARDIOVASCULAR PATHOLOGY AS A
REMOTE EFFECT OF THE
COMPREHENSIVE INFLUENCE OF THE
ENVIRONMENT
Cardiovascular pathology, as is known, is the
leading cause of death of people in most countries
and to a large extent determines the average life
expectancy — one of the integral indices of social
well-being. The explanation of the etiological role of
chemical compounds in the development of cardio-
vascular disease (hypertension, athero- and arterio-
sclerosis, cardiosclerosis and so forth), is at present
one of the most pressing problems of preventive
toxicology.
The Nature of the Combined and Comprehensive
Influence of Chemical, Physical and Social
Factors Unfortunately Remains Unclear
As is known, lipoide infiltration of the vascular
wall, being one of the preconditions of the develop-
ment of arteriosclerosis, occurs when there is a nu-
tritional imbalance (with a predominance of fats
and carbohydrates). At the same time a number of
chemical compounds (for example, CS2) cause the
depression of the activity of the lipolytic lipase of
the vessel walls [2]. The combination of both of
these features can probably lead to an intensifica-
tion of the disruption of lipoide exchange with all
the adverse consequences ensuing from it. Never-
theless at low levels of influence of CS2 (MFC,
Limci, this problem remains unstudied.
Emotional tension, an increased psychological
load, "stress" situations in the work situation and
in daily life are conducive to the development of
hypertonic, ischemic disease, myocardial infarct,
disruptions of brain and kidney blood circulation.
There are developments in the area of labor phys-
iology, which suggest a division of labor according
to the degree of emotional stress into several groups:
—labor that is not emotionally stressing (work
by instruction),
—labor presuming personal material responsibil-
ity to moderate extents — labor with a mod-
erate emotional load,
—labor with an increased emotional load, which
is connected with great material responsibility
or risk of one's own life,
—extremely tense emotional labor, connected
with responsibility for the lives of other people
[14].
Many types of labor in the modern chemical in-
dustry and other branches of the national economy,
in which a person has contact with chemical com-
pounds, may be ascribed to labor with an increased
emotional load. Work with extremely dangerous
toxic substances or explosives, of operators of com-
plex technological processes and so forth could
serve as an example of such a combination. How-
ever, the significance of this combination when the
level of chemical influences is low (MFC, Limch)
remains unstudied.
The quantitative description of emotional tension
is an obligatory prerequisite to comprehensive re-
search. Most promising is the combination of clinic,
epidemiology and experimentation.
Comprehensive Influence of Chemical Factors
In recent years it has been shown that some chem-
ical compounds can cause specific changes in the
heart and blood vessels at remote periods following
influence at minimal concentrations. The indicated
changes include the disruption of lipoide and protein
exchange, the composition of the aortic connective
tissue, morphological restructuring of the wall of
vessels of the musculo-elastic type, myocardium,
etc. [15-18,2].
A defect of the indicated studies is the absence
of information on the overall toxic effect, or the
correlation of the dose (concentration) of the harm-
ful substance and the effect (with a determination
of the thresholds), or the use of only high levels of
influence, the results of which, as is known, do not
coincide with the results of influence at a low level.
At our Institute, I. V. Sanotskiy, N. S. Abalina
and N. S. Grodetskaya approached the problem
from a different angle [19,20]. By a comprehensive
method (nearly 20 indices were used) they studied
the rate of "natural" aging of vessels, with the in-
fluence on experimental animals of a number of sub-
stances in small doses and concentrations.
In this regard the most harmful substances, as is
known, are carbon disulfide, carbon monoxide, so-
dium fluoride, the salts of heavy metals and other
compounds. Characteristic of many of them is the
possibility of simultaneous ingestion in man's body
by different means ( with water, food, and air from
the atmosphere and from the atmosphere and from
the air of work places). Considering that with the
comprehensive influence, the majority of chemical
substances in minimal concentrations act according
to the principle of summation (or the taking of al-
gorithms) of the effect, the study of the state of the
cardiovascular system under the conditions of the
simultaneous ingestion of a poison by different
81
-------
means into the body of man and animals is of con-
siderable interest on the level of public health limi-
tation of the content of the above-indicated sub-
stances in the environment.
However, little such research is being performed.
Preliminary data attest to the real (in some cases
greater than when there is isolated ingestion) danger
of the comprehensive influence of sodium fluoride,
TMTD and several other compounds. According to
the data of our Institute [2] with the isolated in-
gestion of sodium fluoride into the organism of ex-
perimental animals with water (male white rats) in
doses close to the MFC for reservoir water (1.0 and
0.1 mg/kg) for a year a comprehensive evaluation
was made of the state of the vascular system using
functional (arterial pressure, permeability and sta-
bility of the capillaries of the skin, EKG), biochemi-
cal (level of chloresterol, /?-lipoproteides, phospho-
lipins, total protein in the serum, the amount of
noncollagenic [in terms of hexosamines], collagenic
[in terms of hydroxyproline] proteins and muco-
polysaccharides [in terms of hexuronic acids] in
the aorta wall) and morphological methods (the
morphometric evaluation of the aorta and vessels
of the musculo-elastic type). A change was shown
in the lipoide and carbohydrate exchange in rats,
as well as changes, characteristic for accelerated age
dynamics, in the interstitial matter of the connective
tissue of the aortic wall.
With the comprehensive ingestion of sodium
fluoride with water and air (in concentrations at
levels of the corresponding MFC's for reservoir
water and the air of work areas) an intensification
of the effect of the poison was shown, judging from
the pathogenic indicators of fluoric intoxication.
The disturbances of mineral and energy exchange,
which are characteristics of fluorosis, as well as the
disruption of neuroendocrine regulation of the vas-
cular alveus, are the basis of and precondition for
the development of the above-indicated remote con-
sequences of the influence of fluorineion on the
cardiovascular system.
The existence of natural and man-made geo-
chemical provinces with an elevated concentration
of sodium in the soil, water, plants and animals
presumes the need to use a greater coefficient of re-
serve in the public health limitation of the content
of the indicated compound in objects of the environ-
ment (the air of residential areas and the air of
production installations, and others).
A researcher at our Institute, V. N. Zhilenko,
obtained additional information on the nature of the
comprehensive effect of tetramethylthiuram disul-
fide (TMTD), which attests to the possibility of in-
tensification of the effect in the simultaneous in-
gestion of the poison in animal organisms with water
and breathed air in the same doses and concentra-
tions as NaF (that is, at a level of the MFC's es-
tablished in isolation) [9]. The isolated ingestion of
TMTD with water for 6 months in a concentration
at the level of the MFC for reservoir water caused
hypertrophy of the myocardium of the left ventricle,
which was found upon morphometric evaluation of
the myocardium (an increase in the average thick-
ness of the myofibrils of the left ventricle of the
heart through hyperplasia of endocellular elements).
This may be the appearance of compensatory rear-
rangements connected with accelerated processes of
aging of the myocardium. Dispersion analysis
snowed that the involvement of inhalation means of
ingestion played a large role in the effect of sum-
mation; it is recommended to increase the coeffi-
cient of reserve when setting public health standards
of TMTD in the air of the work area.
DIFFICULTIES IN STUDYING REMOTE
EFFECTS IN THE COMPREHENSIVE
EFFECT OF ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS
Toxicity and nature of the effect changes with
different means of ingestion of substances in an
organism. For example, chloroprene, trifluoroper-
azin, morpholine and others are moderately toxic
when ingested in the stomach and highly toxic when
inhaled. Formaldehyde has an embryotropic effect
on animals and a mutagenic effect on the fruit fly
when ingested in the stomach, but does not cause
these effects when inhaled [22,23].
The permissible level of content of substances in
water and the air of residential areas and work
areas should be harmless to the health of all age
groups. Important in this regard is the question of
age sensitivity. Information has been published on
the higher sensitivity of the gonads of young indi-
viduals, for example, to the effect of certain pesti-
cides (methylparathion, karbaril) [2]. In recent years
an active study has been conducted on the trans-
placental induction of tumors, which attracts atten-
tion to the possibility of the comprehensive induce-
ment of cancerogenesis.
The criteria and methods of evaluation should
be adequate, yet this is not always the case. Use is
still being made of "full-scale inoculations," for
which the criteria of danger have not been estab-
lished; frequently lacking is an analysis of the data
from the viewpoint of their physiological fluctua-
tions.
CONCLUSION
Only the combination of full-scale research with
experimentation will make it possible to resolve the
82
-------
problems of the dependence of the pronouncement
of remote effects on the dose of a chemical com-
pound, to evaluate the diversity of combinations of
various chemical compounds with no less diverse
physical, alimentary and emotional loads. Mathe-
matical elaboration will make it possible to draw a
more substantiated conclusion on the actual role of
chemical compounds and the various means of their
ingestion in an organism in the development of re-
mote pathology under the conditions of nervous-
emotional tension, nutritional imbalance and the
complementary influence of physical factors, as
well as on the permissible loads of the indicated
factors when the effect is comprehensive.
REFERENCES
1. Malinovskiy, O. V., et al. "The Influence of Caffeine
on the Survival Rate of Cells of Mammals and the
Frequency of the Appearance in Them of Chromo-
somal Aberration After X-Raying," Cytology, 5, No.
10 (1973), pp. 1304-1308.
2. Complete reference not available.
3. Dubinin, I. P. Molecular Genetics and the Effect of
Radiation on Heredity, Moscow, Gosatomizdat, 1963,
239 pp.
4. Mitrofanov, Yu. A., Krayevoy, S. Ya., Dalabayev, B.
A. "The Combined Use of Physical and Chemical
Factors in Induced Mutagenesis," Proceedings of the
Moscow Agricultural Academy imeni K. A. Timiryazev,
issue 182 (1972), pp. 187-192.
5. Sanotskiy, I. V., Savina, M. Ya. In the book The Re-
mote Consequences of Radiation Affections, Moscow,
Atomizdat, 1971, pp. 465-473.
6. Kihlman, B. A., et al. "The Enhancement by Caffeine
of the Frequencies of Chromosomal Aberration In-
duced in Plant and Animal Cells by Chemical and
Physical Agents," Mut. Res. Sec. Environ. Mutagenes
and Re. Subj., 26, No. 2 (1974), pp. 105-122.
7. Nemirovskiy, L. Ye., Klimenko, V. V. "The Influence
of Caffeine on Genetic Damages Induced in the Hepa-
tocytes of Rats by the Alkylating Compound Dipin,"
Genetics, 9, No. 6 (1973), pp. 100-106.
8. Pavlova, A. G. "The Combined Effect of Chemical
Mutagens in Aqueous Solution and a Gaseous Med-
ium," in the collection Chemical Mutagenesis and the
Creation of Selection Material, Moscow, Nauka, 1972,
pp. 173-175.
9. Zhilenko, V. N. "The Study of the Toxicity of TMTD
in Its Simultaneous Ingestion in the Organism of Rats
with Water and Air," Labor Hygiene and Professional
Diseases, 1975.
10. Vaytekune, D. I. "The Influence of Tetramethylthiuram
Disulfide (TMTD) on the Generative Function and
Embryogenesis (Experimental Research)." Candidate
dissertation abstract, Vilnius, 1971.
11. Izmerov, N. F. "Evaluation of the Maximum Per-
missible Effect of Chemical Factors of the Produc-
tion, Municipal and Household Environment on Man,"
Joint Soviet-American Symposium: "The Comprehen-
sive Evaluation of the Environment and the Permis-
sible Load on Man," Tbilisi, 1974.
12. Izmerov, N. F., Sanotskiy, I. V. 'The Problem of
Evaluating the Comprehensive Effect of Chemical
Factors of Man's Habitation," International Sympos-
ium of the World Health Organization, the Commis-
sion of European Communities, the U. S. Environmen-
tal Protection Agency: "Recent Achievements in
Studying the Environmental Influence on Health,"
Paris, 1974.
13. Izmerov, N. F., Gorbachev, Ye. M., et al. "The Prob-
lem of Evaluating the Comprehensive Effect of Chem-
ical Factors of Man's Sphere of Habitation," IV Con-
gress of Hygienists and Public Health Doctors, RSFSR,
Krasnoyarsk, 1974.
14. Moykin, Yu. V., et al. "Criteria of the Difficulty and
Tension of Labor," Materials of the Symposium: "Hy-
giene and the Physiology of the Question of the La-
bor Regime in Industry," Ivanovo, 1970.
15. Hernberg, S. Nurminen, M., Tolonen, M. Work - En-
vironment - Health, 10, No. 2 (1973), pp. 93-99.
16. Szmatlock, E., Cregoczyk, K., et al., Med. pr., 24,
No. 2 (1973), pp. 121-131.
17. Lieben, J., Menduke, H., Fleget, E., Smith, F., J. of
Occup. Med., No. 7 (July, 1974), pp. 449-453.
18. Wronska-Nofer, T. La med. del Lavoro, volume 64,
Nos. 1-2 (1973), pp. 8-13.
19. Sanotskiy, I. V., Abalina, N. S. "A Comparison of
Some Methods of Studying the Change in the Vessel
Wall under the Influence of Occupational Poisons,"
in the collection Problems of Setting Hygienic Norms
in Studying the Remote Consequences of the Influence
of Industrial Poisons, Moscow, 1972, pp. 180-184.
20. Sanotskiy, I. V., Grodetskaya, N. S. "The Study of
the Rate of Aging of Vessels as a Criterion for Eval-
uating the Remote Consequences of the Influence of
Chemical Compounds," Materials of the Republic
Conference on Labor Hygiene and Occupational Dis-
eases, in the Estonian SSR, Tallin, 1975.
21. Pankratova, G. P. "Toxicological Evaluation of the
Short-Term and Long-Term Influence of Sodium
Fluoride on the Cardiovascular System," Candidate of
Medical Sciences Dissertation abstract, Moscow, 1975.
22. Sheveleva, G. A. "The Study of the Specific Effect of
Formaldehyde on the Embryogenesis and Progeny of
White Rats," in the collection Toxicology of New
Industrial Chemical Substances, Leningrad, Izdatel'stvo
Meditsina, issue 12, 1971, pp. 78-86.
23. Rapoport, I. A. "Carbonyl Compounds and the Chem-
ical Mechanism of Mutations," Proceedings of the
USSR Academy of Sciences, 1946, pp. 54-65.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Antov, Kh. G., Zlateva, M. 'The Influence of Lead and
Manganese on Aortic Connective Tissue of White Rats,"
Pharmacology and Toxicology, No. 1 (1974) pp. 96-98.
Guseva, V. A. "The Features of the Effect of Formalde-
hyde in the Simultaneous Ingestion by Inhalation and
Orally," Hygiene and Public Health, No. 5 (1973), p. 7.
Nofer, Ye., Khaynovskiy, I., Kets', E. "The Influence of
Occupational Exposures to CS, on the Emergence of
Arteriosclerosis," Materials of the 5th Conference of
Ministers of Health of the Socialist Countries, Mos-
cow, 1962, pp. 138-141.
Sheveleva, G. A. "The Influence of Formaldehyde on the
Embryogenesis of White Rats," in the book Toxicology
and the Hygiene of Products of Petrochemistry and
Petrochemical Production Facilities, Yaroslavl', 1968,
pp. 130-132.
Sidorov, V. P., Makedonov, G. P. "The Study of the Ef-
fect of the Combined Influence of Ionizing Radiation
and Ethylenimine in Sprouting Seeds," Genetika, 10, No.
11 (1974) pp. 44-48.
83
-------
Wronska-Nofer, T., Golomb, B. "Study of the Lipolytic Zhilenko, V. N. "Materials for a Toxicological Description
Activity of the Blood Serum and Aortic Wall of Rats of the General and Specific Effect of TMTD When In-
Poisoned with CSa," 1st Symposium on Industrial Toxi- gested with Water in the Organism of Experimental
cology of the Countries of the Socialist Camp, Lodz, Animals." Gigiyena i sanitariya, No. 12 (1975).
7-11 December, 1965, pp. 88-91.
84
-------
THE DETECTION OF NATURALLY OCCURRING AND MAN-MADE
CARCINOGENS AND MUTAGENS BY THE DNA REPAIR ASSAY
H. F. STICK, R. C. SAN, P. LAM, and D. J. KOROPATNICK
Detailed evaluation of chemical carcinogens and
mutagens in man's environment is hampered by lack
of analytical techniques sensitive enough to detect
small quantities of chemicals in large bodies of
water or air, and economic enough to be applied in
large-scale monitoring programs. Chemical analyses,
the apparent method of choice, are of only limited
value at present. Primarily one must know the
molecular structures of the compounds. But in many
cases the chemical natures of the environmental car-
cinogens are unknown. As a second disadvantage,
most chemical analyses require a great deal of time
and costly instrumentation. Finally, the manpower
and physical facilities are not available to initiate
and maintain extensive national or global monitor-
ing programs for chemical carcinogens and muta-
gens. These difficulties and dilemmas can be solved
by applying biological indicator organisms that ap-
pear to be more relevant in assessing a hazard to
man. The newly designed short-term test systems
which may lead to a rapid advance in the field of
environmental carcinogenesis and mutagenesis can
be divided into three major groups: 1) tests using
point mutations of micro-organisms (e.g., S. typhi-
murium [1], E. coli [2], plants (Neorospora crassa)
[3] or invertebrates (Drosophila) [4]) as indicators
of a mutagenic and carcinogenic capacity; 2) tests
employing cultured mammalian cells (including hu-
man fibroblasts and lymphocytes) for measurement
of an injury to cells by estimating a) fragmentation
of DNA molecules [5,6], b) DNA repair synthesis
[7,8], c) chromosome aberrations or d) neoplastic
transformation [9] and 3) tests making use of
"built-in" accumulator and indicator organisms
which can be used in an early warning system
[10, 11].
The feasibility of using DNA alterations (DNA
fragmentation and DNA repair) in cultured human
cells is best illustrated by a few examples. In judg-
ing these procedures one must keep in mind that a
DNA repair or DNA fragmentation test can be
completed within a week, with a minimum outlay
of equipment and technical support. This advantage
is in contrast to the 2 to 3 years and $150.00
per compound that are necessary when the "classi-
cal" rodent test for carcinogens is used.
Carcinogenic potential of complex mixtures can
be revealed by shifts in sedimentation profiles of
DNA released from cultured human fibroblasts.
One example is shown hi Figure 1. Extracts of
50
40
O
o
I
CO
30
20
O
cc
10
CONTROL
FORCE-FED
MOUSE
—^ V
10
SEDIMENTATION
15
Figure 1. Sedimentation profile of 3H-DNA released from
ileum of Swiss mice force-fed on ethanol extracts
of whole bracken fern (Preridium aquilinum).
Control • •; force-fed mouse O O.
85
-------
bracken fern (Pteridium aquilinum), proven to be
carcinogenic in rodents, [12] fragments the DNA
of cultured human cells. The ease of detection of
industrial chemicals can be seen in Figure 2. Nat-
urally occurring compounds may also be assayed as
potential mutagens. This approach is exemplified
by examination of the products of ascorbic acid,
[13] which are consumed hi relatively large quan-
tities and are added to many common foodstuffs,
see Figure 3.
CO
LLJ
U
D
Z
CC
LU
Q-
co
cc
O
10
8
6
4
21
10
CHLOROETHYLENE /
OXIDE/
.^2-CHLORO-
' ETHANOL
10 ' 10 10 10~4 10"3
CONCENTRATION (M)
Figure 2. DNA repair synthesis in cultured human fibro-
blasts exposed for 2 hours to various concen-
trations of chloroethylene oxide or 2-chloro-
ethanol.
One convenience of using human cells is the
possibility of simulating conditions that prevail in
man or within the human population. For example,
the effect of cancer predisposing genes can be in-
vestigated by observing a decreased level of DNA
40
NO
ASCORBATE
ASCORBIC ACID (M)
Figured. DNA repair synthesis in cultured human fibro-
blasts exposed to ascorbic acid in an Ch or Nz
atmosphere.
repair synthesis [14], Figure 4, or an elevated sen-
sitivity [15] to the lethal effect of carcinogens or
mutagens, see Figure 5.
CO
2120
o
cc
LU
0.
CO
80
40
4NQO (1.5HR
FANCONI
-XPK
XP
o-
D
Q .............. D
10
-7
10'6
CONCENTRATION (M)
10
-5
Figure 4. Reduced levels of DNA repair synthesis in cul-
tured cells of Xeroderma pigmentosum patients.
Cells were exposed for 1.5 hours to the carcino-
gen 4-nitroquinoline-1 -oxide.
4NQO (1.5HR.
| 1-0
CO
0.1
.01
\XPE
10
-8
10
-7
CONCENTRATION (M)
Figure 5. Clone-forming capacity of cultured Xeroderma
pigmentosum cells following an exposure to 4-
nitroquinoline-1-oxide.
86
-------
Less well understood, but by no means less im-
portant, is the possible enhancement of the muta-
genic and carcinogenic effect of oncogenic viruses
in the presence of chemical carcinogens. A hitherto
unknown phenomenon was discovered when the In-
teraction between viruses, chemical carcinogens and
cancer predisposing genes was examined. Figure 6
illustrates this pattern. Activated aflatoxin E^ in-
duces DNA lesions in human adenovirus type 12
(AD 12) which results in the activation of viral
DNA and suppression of viral replication. In the cul-
tured fibroblasts of normal persons the viral DNA
lesions are repaired, the virus resumes replication
and progresses finally to lysis of the infected host
cell. On the other hand, no recovery of viral repli-
cation occurs in the repair-deficient cells of Xero-
derma pigmentosum (XP) patients. The unrepaired
viral DNA exerts a chromosome-breaking action in
these cells without causing cell lysis. In other words,
the application of aflatoxin E^ to AD 12-infected
normal cells leads to a complete replicative cycle
and cell death, whereas an abortive replication cycle
occurs in XP cells.
AD12
INFECTION
LYSIS
activated
aflatoxin
„ Bl
NORMAL ?/=^
HUMAN'4^"
CELL viral DNA damaged viral
viral DNA replication
XP jf\ /^ /^ . NO _ ABORTIVE
CELL JV_
viral
DNA damaged
M viral DNA
AD12
INFECTION
activated aflatoxin Bl
Figure 6. The interaction of oncogenic virus (adenovirus
type 12), chemical carcinogen (activated aflatoxin
Bl), and cancer predisposing gene (Xeroderma
pigmentosum).
The DNA repair test is also suitable for investi-
gation of synergistic, enhancing or supressing ef-
fects if two or more chemical carcinogens or muta-
gens are jointly applied [16]. Such experiments may
mimic the environmental exposure of man to sev-
eral hazardous compounds at once. For example,
ascorbic acid can suppress the repair of UV-induced
DNA lesions, making cells highly sensitive to the
lethal and mutagenic effects of this non-ionizing
radiation. In this connection it should be noted that
ascorbic acid as well as UV light are agents to
which man and other organisms are daily exposed.
As a rule, the average man in an industrial so-
ciety is not once, but repeatedly exposed to many
small doses of carcinogens and mutagens. There
are very few experiments that have examined
the effect of sequential doses of chemical carcin-
ogens on cultured cells. The small number of ex-
periments that have been performed reveal that cul-
tured cells cannot respond to a second dose of chem-
ical with a new DNA repair synthesis within two
to three hours following administration of the first
dose [17]. In this "refractory" period following the
inflection of DNA damage, the cells are highly sen-
sitive to the lethal and mutagenic action of a second
dose.
In this report we have shown the feasibility and
adaptability of rapid and economic short-term as-
says that can be applied to cultured human cells,
and should therefore provide results directly appli-
cable to man.
REFERENCES
1. Ames, B. N., Durston, W. E., Yamasaki, E., and Lee,
F. D. Carcinogens are mutagens; a simple test com-
bining liver homogenates for activation and bac-
teria for detection. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 70,
2281-2283 (1973).
2. Kada, T., Tutikawa, K., and Sadaie, Y., In vitro and
host-mediated "rec-assay" procedures for screening
chemical mutagens; and phloxine, a mutagenic red
dye detected. Mutation Res., 16, 165-174 (1972).
3. DeSerres, F. J. Mutagenic specificity of chemical car-
cinogens in microorganisms. IARC Scient. Publ., 10,
201-209 (1974).
4. Sobels, F. ,H., The advantages of Drosophila for mu-
tation studies. Mutation Res. 26, 277-284 (1974).
5. Regan, J. D. and Setlow, R. B., Two forms of repair
in the DNA of human cells damaged by chemical
carcinogens and mutagens. Cancer Res. 34, 3318-3325
. (1974).
6. Laishes, B. A. and Stich, H. P., Relative DNA dam-
age induced in cultured human skin fibroblasts by
exposure to the precarcinogen 2-AAF, the proximate
carcinogen N-hydroxy-2AAF, and the ultimate car-
cinogen N-acetoxy-2AAF. Can. J. Biochem., 51, 990-
994 (1973).
7. San, R.H.C. and Stich, H. F., DNA repair synthesis
of cultured human cells as a rapid bioassay for
chemical carcinogens. Int. J. Cancer 16, 284-291
(1975).
8. Stich, H. F., Kieser, D., Laishes, B. A. and San, R. H.
C., The use of DNA repair in the identification of
carcinogens, precarcinogens and target tissue. Proc.
Canadian Cancer Conf. 10, 125-170 (1973).
9. Heidelberger, C. and lype, P. T., Malignant transfor-
mation in vitro by carcinogenic hydrocarbons. Science
155, 214 (1967).
10. Stich, H. F. and Acton, A. B., The possible use of
fish tumors in monitoring for carcinogens in the mar-
ine environment. Prog. Exp. Tumor Res. 20 (1976).
11. Stich, H. F., Acton, A. B., and Dunn, B. P., Carcin-
ogens in estuaries, their monitoring and possible haz-
ard to man. Intern. Agency for Res. on Cancer, Sym-
posium (in press).
12. Evans, I. A. and Mason, J., Carcinogenic activity of
bracken. Nature 208, 913-914 (1965).
13. Stich, H. F., Karim, J., Koropatnick, I. and Lo, J.,
Mutagenic action of ascorbic acid. Nature (in press).
87
-------
14. Stich, H. F., San, R. H. C., Miller, J. A., and Miller,
E. C., Various levels of DNA repair synthesis in
Xeroderma pigmentosum cells exposed to the car-
cinogenic N-hydroxy- and N-acetoxy-2-acetylamino-
fluorene. Nature, New Biology, 238, 9-10 (1972).
15. Stich, H. F., San, R. H. C., and Kawazoe, Y. In-
creased sensitivity of Xeroderma pigmentosum cells
to some chemical carcinogens and mutagens. Muta-
tion Res. 17, 127-137 (1973).
16. Stich, H. F., Hammerberg, O. and Casto, B., The
combined effect of chemical mutagen and virus on
DNA repair, chromosome aberrations, and neoplastic
transformation. Can. J. Genet. Cytol. 14, 911-917
(1972).
17. Warren, P. M. and Stich, H. F., Reduced DNA re-
pair capacity and increased cytotoxicity following
split doses of the mutagen 4-nitroquinoline-l-oxide
in cultured human cells. Mutation Res. 28, 285-293
(1975).
88
-------
ORGANIZATION OF BIOSPHERE PRESERVES (STATIONS)
IN THE USSR
I. P. GERASIMOV, YU. A. IZRAEL, and V. YE. SOKOLOV
The system of biosphere preserves (stations) is
created to study, control and forecast the state of
anthropogenic changes in the biosphere as the habi-
tat of man. Biosphere preserves may become a
component part of a global monitoring system (on
a background level); they must, above all, ensure
national interests. Therefore, the network of Soviet
biosphere stations is a component part of a system
of national monitoring, that is, an observation and
control service for the natural environment of the
USSR. The system is based on the national system
of observation and control over the pollution levels
of the air, water and land of the USSR Hydro-
meteorological Service and for monitoring the state
of man's health, the appropriate service of the
USSR Ministry of Health. In the first stage the sys-
tem of biosphere stations will be an independent
experimental subsystem within the framework of
national monitoring.
TASKS OF THE BIOSPHERE STATIONS
—Conduct of permanent observations and deter-
mination of background indices (parameters)
characterizing the current state of the biosphere
and its anthropogenic changes.
—Conduct of permanent, periodic and irregular
target studies of various ecosystems to develop
scientifically based parameters for the control
of the state of the environment and its signifi-
cance to the health and well-being of man.
—Protection of natural ecosystems and the re-
sources that support the life of plants and ani-
mals and the development of scientific bases
of nature conservation measures (primarily for
the system of natural preserves).
In connection with the first two tasks the system
of biosphere preserves must more correctly be
called the system of biosphere stations.
In addition to these basic tasks, the area of the
biosphere stations will be employed for the conduct
of various scientific studies for international pro-
jects, as well as for a study of the problems of the
environment and the conservation of nature.
COMPOSITION OF THE WORK OF
BIOSPHERE STATIONS
The fundamental direction of the scientific work
of the biosphere stations must be the conduct of
systematic observations over the elements of the
current biosphere for the chemical, physical and
biological indices for the purpose of a reliable es-
tablishment of periodic or controlled changes in it
and the evaluation of the ecological values of these
changes or their causes (particularly anthropogenic).
The composition of these indices must include
the geophysical characteristics of solar radiation
entering the atmosphere as well as the Earth's sur-
face as the main energy base of all biosphere proc-
esses. They must also include the observations over
the appearance of flows of radiation energy across
the atmosphere. Apparently the main attention must
be turned to the role of the growing pollution of
the atmosphere as well as the direct effect of heat
of man-made origin on the total energetics of the
biosphere. An important value must be assigned in
these studies to the effect of the man-made actions
on the climate and particularly on the gas content
of the atmosphere, the consideration of the use of
oxygen and the excretion of CO2 as a result of the
consumption of fuel, a change in the process of its
photosynthesis, and so forth.
A special section must be composed of observa-
tions of the global water balance and the humidity
circulation. Here, just as important is the reliable
base-line of the man-made changes, as well as the
forecasts for the future. The subjects of the study
and observation must also include the man-made
transformations of the cycles of the most important
chemical elements (N, P, K, and others) with an
obligatory inclusion in the study of the soil cover.
The list of media and indices subject to measure-
ment and study include primarily:
—Air — carbon dioxide (CO2) (in the air point
and column), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur
dioxide (SO2), nitric oxide (NOX), ozone (O.,),
(at the source in the air, in the upper atmo-
89
-------
sphere), dust, radioactivity, transparency of the
atmosphere.
—Surface waters, precipitation, ocean water (the
latter for ocean stations) — mineral composi-
tion, heavy metals, petroleum products, pesti-
cides, polychlorbiphenyls.
—Soil, biota — microelements, pesticides, micro-
biological admixtures.
The scope of the basic tasks of the research stud-
ies at the biosphere stations must include a study
of various ecosystems on land and in the oceans
and those changes in the abiotic and biotic com-
ponents of the ecosystem, brought on as a result of
man-made changes.
Study of the biotic components (biota) must be
conducted on an ecosystem basis (composition of
the biota and its changes, functional vitality and
biological productivity), dynamics of the popula-
tions of the indicator species, physiological form
(photosynthesis respiration, growth, propagation)
and molecular-genetic (mutagenesis, teratogenesis,
and others) levels. It must be closely linked to a
study of the abiotic factors (radiation balance, heat
and water regimes) of the ecosystem and the nature
of the anthropogenic factors affecting them (use of
natural resources, pollution of the environment and
others).
The conduct of geophysical, geochemical and
biological studies and observations must be inte-
grated by way of finding and describing the com-
mon balances of internal flows of energy and mat-
ter in the ecosystems under study, as well as their
man-made transformation.
Thus, comprehensive studies both of external
factors of the environment and the internal proc-
esses and phenomena occurring in the ecosystems
must be carried out at the biosphere stations. More-
over, in order to find the man-made changes of
these factors, processes and phenomena, studies
must be carried out both of natural and to a greater
or lesser degree of objects transformed under the
influence of man, and appropriate experimental
studies are also planned.
In addition to the basic tasks of determining the
background indices describing the present state of
the biosphere on a global scale, of great significance
in accelerating the implementation of the results of
these observations will be the close ties of the sub-
system of biosphere stations with the national mon-
itoring system and the scientific assessment of var-
ious types of economic activity from the point of
view of their effect on the biosphere.
STRUCTURE OF THE BIOSPHERE STATIONS
AND WORK METHODS
Proceeding from the above-mentioned data, each
biosphere station must have a zoned structure for
their territory with the allocation of the following
basic zones — central (at the level of a global back-
ground)* showing the least changed natural eco-
systems and where the strictest methods are em-
ployed for their protection; a buffer (transitory)
where under scientific control various forms of land
use are carried out and experimented with and
comparisons are conducted on the state of the bio-
sphere under the influence of the activity of man
with the background state, and (possibly) educa-
tional and demonstrational where visitors would be
allowed.
In the central zones of the biosphere stations the
main purpose of the observations and studies must
be the background characteristics and the natural
bioproduction process (radiation energy, atmospheric
and soil moisture, nutritive elements and others),
trophic links (biological circuits and their distur-
bance); in the buffer zones the characteristics of the
degree of utilization of natural resources in natural-
technical ecosystems above all for the production
of the biomass as well as the effectiveness of the
methods for the control of the processes of the use
of the natural environment and resources, from the
point of view of the protection and improvement of
the environment for the life and work of man.
In order to obtain general background charac-
teristics of the biosphere use will also be made of
sampling methods, including satellites, in addition
to the above-mentioned observations.
APPROXIMATE DESIGN OF THE NETWORK
OF SOVIET BIOSPHERE STATIONS
The total number of biosphere stations in the
USSR need not be great. Initially their number will
be limited to six with a subsequent increase. Of
these five will be on land and one on the water.
The following may be suggested as continental bio-
sphere stations:
—Arctic — located on Franz Josef Land. This
biosphere station can be set up on the base of
the Observatory im. Krenkel' of the Hydro-
meteorological Service on Kheysa Island. Roc-
ket soundings of the upper atmosphere for a
study of its background composition can be
carried out from this base.
—Central Forest Steppe — located in the geo-
graphic center of the European territory of
the Soviet Union. This biosphere station must
be formed on the area of the Kursk Field
Base of the Institute of Geography of the
USSR Academy of Sciences and the Central
Black Earth Preserve. Scientific research has
*This zone must be no closer to sources of anthropo-
genic impact than 50 to 100 km.
90
-------
been conducted on this territory over many
years and they will, to a substantial degree,
correspond to the above-mentioned program;
in addition, this territory is used as an aero-
space range for the study of the natural en-
vironment and its resources following a Sov-
iet-American agreement.
—Central Asian Desert — located in the sands
of the Karakum and set up on the base of the
Repetekiskiy Station of the Institute of Des-
erts of the Turkmen Academy of Sciences.
Scientific research has also been carried out
for many years on the territory of this bio-
sphere preserve partially corresponding to the
above-presented program.
—South Siberian Tayga — located on the terri-
tory of the Baykal preserve and the areas ad-
jacent to it where a variety of scientific stud-
ies are being carried out with the active par-
ticipation of the Institute of Limnology and
the Institute of the Geography of Siberia and
the Far Eastern Siberian Branch of the USSR
Academy of Sciences.
—East Siberian Tayga — located in central
Yakutiya near the pole of cold for Eurasia.
This biosphere preserve can be established
with the active participation of the Institute of
Geocryology of the Siberian Branch of the
USSR Academy of Sciences.
—The Ocean biosphere preserve can be com-
posed of the ocean station within the system
of the North Atlantic meteorological stations
serviced by the scientific research ships of the
Hydrometeorological Service.
In order to compare the state of the biosphere
against the background level and the level of the
existing impact of man, it is necessary to select
around each biosphere preserve a representative net-
work of test sites where it will be possible to assess
in a complex manner the man-made changes in the
environment (taking into consideration the direc-
tion and intensity of the processes) and in a num-
ber of cases to conduct purposeful experiments.
The Central Forest Steppe biosphere preserve
has a wealth of opportunities in the selection of
such sites since it is in the proximity of the Kursk
Magnetic Anomaly and the chemical enterprises of
the city of Belgorod as well as vast agricultural
complexes.
The Central Asian Desert biosphere preserve has
within 80 km to the east the city of Chardzhou with
a developing petrochemical industry, other enter-
prises and developed oasis agriculture with the in-
tensive application of fertilizers and various pesti-
cides.
The South Siberian Tayga biosphere preserve is
situated near wood chemistry complexes and the
Cheremkhovskiy Coal Basin the area of influence
of which will provide extremely important data on
the degree of man's impact on the environment.
The East Siberian Tayga biosphere is near the
city of Yakutsk and a number of mining enterprises.
In addition to this initial system of Soviet bio-
sphere preserves it is proposed to establish a scien-
tific-methodological research-station on problems of
biosphere monitoring near Moscow in the area of
Pushchino and the Prioksk-terrace preserve. In or-
ganizing scientific studies this station can rely on
the scientific institutes of the USSR Academy of
Sciences located in Pushchino and specifically the
Institute of Soil Science and Agrochemistry of the
USSR Academy of Sciences.
Implementation of the proposed plan for the de-
velopment of biosphere preserves will aid in the
solution of a number of scientific-methodological
problems facing the national and the planned global
systems for monitoring the state of the biosphere,
assess its existing global background state, and de-
termine the tendencies in changes of this state in
the future.
91
-------
THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF GLOBAL ECOLOGICAL
FORECASTING
S. S. SHVARTS
Human activity has a progressive effect on nature.
It is beyond doubt that any precautionary measures
(which are absolutely necessary) and any degree of
improvement of production (closed cycles, and so on)
will only reduce the effect of man on nature, but will
not eliminate the danger of deterioration of the
natural environment, if only for the reason that the
most efficient production removes from biological
circulation vast land and water areas. This should
be evident to any person who is not inclined to
overconfidence. But from this it by no means follows
that mankind should pursue a policy of 'curtailing
production. The thesis "back to nature" was always
reactionary, the struggle to raise the living condi-
tions of people requires the unceasing development
of industrialization and urbanization.
However, there are no serious reasons to assume
that man's influence on the biosphere and on indi-
vidual ecosystems leads, with the inevitability of a
law, to the deterioration of "nature." In order to get
to the bottom of this fundamental question we must
attempt to understand what is a "good" ecosystem
and what is a "bad" ecosystem. It is always difficult
to answer such a question, although intuitively we
all understand "what is good and what is bad."
Nevertheless, upon first approximation we can an-
swer the posed question. A "good" biogeocenosis
should meet the following requirements.
—The output (biomass) of all the basic links of
the trophic chains is high. The excess of phyto-
mass over zoomass, which is characteristic of
man-made landscapes, is not sharply pro-
nounced. This ensures a synthesis of a large
amount of oxygen and the synthesis of a large
number of products not only of vegetable, but
also of animal origin.
—High productivity corresponds to high output.
The product "productivity and biomass" ap-
proaches a maximum. This creates the pre-
requisites for rapid compensation of the possi-
ble losses of biomass at the individual trophic
levels as a result of random or regular external
influences. This circumstance is especially
important. High output does not guarantee
high compensatory activity of biological
systems.
—The structure of the system as a whole and the
heterogeneity of the individual trophic levels
ensure great stability of the ecosystem, given a
broad range of external conditions. Greater
efficiency of homeostatic reactions is character-
istic not only of populations of dominant
species, but also of the ecosystem as a whole.
The maintenance of the ecosystem in a state
of dynamic equilibrium ensures a state of
homeostasis of the nonliving components of the
ecosystem, including the hydrological regime of
the territory and the gas composition of the
atmosphere.
—Metabolism and energy exchange occur at a
high rate. The processes of reduction ensure the
involvement in biological circulation of the en-
tire biomass produced by the ecosystem in the
course of a few annual cycles. This ensures
the maximum rate of biological self-purification
of the system.
—A higher degree of productivity and stability
of an ecosystem entails higher "reserve ac-
tivity" — the capacity for rapid reorganization
of the structure of the community and for rapid
evolutionary transformations of the populations
of dominant species. This ensures maintenance
of the ecosystem in the optimal state given a
change in environmental conditions.
If the ecosystem satisfies the listed requirements,
there are grounds to consider it "good," regardless
of whether it develops in a "natural" urbanized
environment. Hence it follows that the long-term
task of global ecology consists in developing mea-
sures that facilitate the development of "good"
ecosystems under the conditions of a man-made
landscape. On the other hand, the viewpoint being
developed makes it possible to approach quite
objectively the evaluation of the permissible load on
the environment. If an ecosystem is capable in a
man-made environment of maintaining itself (as a
system) in an optimal state, this means that the de-
gree of man-made influence does not exceed the
92
-------
potentials of biological systems, does not undermine
their capacity for homeostasis. There are formidable
theoretical grounds to assume that such a system of
evaluations in practice coincides with public health
evaluations. The state of the ecosystem is a more
sensitive indicator of the environment than any other.
The analysis of the question posed in such an
unusual form for the biologist ("What is good and
what is bad") makes it possible to assert that some
of the general changes introduced by industrialization
can be regarded as a factor potentially conducive to
the development of the biosphere. The increase in
the content of CO2 in the atmosphere creates the
prerequisites for the formation of communities of
increased productivity, which have an increased
capacity for self-purification. Human activity sharply
increases the energy exchange in ecological systems,
which facilitates the overall rejuvenation of the
biosphere, accelerates the evolutionary process and
creates objective conditions for the development of
flourishing ecosystems. Many (although, unfortu-
nately, far from all) operations on the irrigation of
deserts, land reclamation, the draining of swamps,
and the eradication of epizootics "work" in this same
direction.
We will not have the opportunity to go into the
specific details of this question. However, it is im-
portant to emphasize that they force us to alter as
well the manner of raising the basic problem of
modern global ecology: are the "deterioration" of
the natural environment and the collapse of eco-
logical equilibrium an inevitable consequence of
the overall strategy of development of industrial
society, or are they the result of errors in technical
policy?
In the process of evolution of organisms radical
changes inevitably occur in the structure and ener-
getics of ecosystems and the biosphere as a whole.
Of particular significance are the various means of
biological progress. Their diversity (any species of
animals or plants is biologically unique, and chooses
its own means of coping with the environment) for a
long time served as a unique psychological barrier
to the correct evaluation of the role of different
groups of organisms in energetics and the functioning
of ecosystems.
Even at the stage of "prelife" its development was
determined by natural selection. The complication
of macromolecules inevitably led to enlargement of
the first organisms. This tendency in evolution con-
tinued even further: Morphophysiological progress
was accompanied by an increase in body dimensions.
This morphological law of evolution has grave eco-
logical consequences. The most important of them
is the reduction in the number of individuals in the
population. The number of individuals in natural
populations of bacteria is defined by astronomical
magnitudes, the populations of insects number in the
billions of individuals, those of rodents in the
thousands and millions, of large predators in the
hundreds and thousands. In correspondence with
this the density of populations of different animals
also changes. The smaller the body dimensions of an
organism, the more numerous are its populations.
The reasons for this ecological law are understand-
able: The larger an animal is, the fewer the individ-
uals that can feed on a specific section of the living
area. Hence it follows that morphophysiological
progress should inevitably be accompanied by the
emergence of mechanisms that insure relatively small
populations given an extremely unfavorable combi-
nation of external factors. This "insurance" could
follow two fundamentally different lines: the increase
of individual and population durability.
In the early stages of the evolution of organisms
"population durability" was able to be maintained
through the colossal size of populations. At this
stage a population might have been a primitive sys-
tem, such as it seems to some theoreticians interested
in biological problems. The inevitable consequence
of morphophysiological progress — the reduction in
size of populations — leads to the evolutionary in-
evitability of the improvement of a population as a
system. The universal means of solving this problem
was the reproduction process, which guaranteed the
emergence and maintenance of the genetic hetero-
geneity of the population. In the process of evolu-
tion a well-known law of cybernetics, Ashby's law,
is realized: systems consisting of a large number of
heterogeneous elements are less subject to fluctua-
tions.
However, the heterogeneity of a population is
maintained not only by genetic but also by ecological
elements. In this respect, animals of different levels
of morphophysiological organization differ substan-
tially. Greater physiological perfection requires im-
proved homeostasis, not only as a state, but also as
a process; it requires not only a constancy of the
internal environment, but also a constancy of the
course of ontogeny. For illustration let us compare
representatives of a single class — mammals, ro-
dents and carnivora. Mouse-like rodents are capable
of passing through the full cycle of development
under extremely different conditions (seasonal gen-
erations) and of substantially altering the rate of
ontogeny. In conformity with this their populations
consist of many ecologically unique groupings of
animals differing in the rate of growth and develop-
ment, in the demand on the quality and quantity of
food, reaction to a change in the most important
factors of the environment, and so on. The successful
ontogeny of a predator is possible only in a relatively
93
-------
narrow range of external conditions. The structure
of populations of predators is immeasurably simplei
than that of populations of rodents. Therefore, in
spite of the fact that the individual durability of
predators is greater than the individual durability of
rodents, the resistance of their populations to ex-
ternal influences proves to be immeasurably lower.
The field mouse population cannot be exterminated,
the tiger population needs to be protected! This
example illustrates an important law: evolution was
realized in two basic ways — by morphophysiological
progress and by improving the organization of the
population. The deep-seated processes at the basis
of this law can be understood by comparing
phylogenetically more distant organisms. Let us
compare mammals with poikilitic vertebrates.
It is well known that the rate of ontogeny of cold-
blooded animals (even when their temperature is
comparable to the body temperature of birds and
mammals) is considerably lower than that of warm-
blooded animals. The rate of sexual maturation of
the white sturgeon is many times lower than
that of mammals of equal or even greater size.
The white sturgeon becomes sexually mature in the
15th year of life, the white whale in the 5th year.
The frog matures in the 3rd or 4th year, the field
mouse, which is equal to it in weight, in the 3rd
or 4th month. From the positions developed here
this fundamental ecological difference between cold-
blooded and warm-blooded vertebrates has a natural
explanation which works with respect to any specific
species.
The main weapon in the struggle for life
of higher animals is morphophysiological improve-
ment. Therefore, a population should reduce the
infancy period of the individuals forming it, the
period of formation of morphological improvement.
For lower organized animals the situation is differ-
ent; the durability of a species is determined by the
improvement of its population structure. The longer
the maturation period of animals (more precisely,
the greater the range of mutability of the duration
of ontogeny) and the longer the period preceding
maturation, the greater the possibilities are for com-
plication of population structures, especially when the
different age stages are distinguished by substantial
ecological features. For flourishing forms of "lower"
animals this is precisely what happens. It is sufficient
to compare larvae and adults for many insects and
amphibians. When the different age stages of a
species occupy in the ecosystem different niches, the
possibility of a species becoming extinct owing to
"random" change in the environment is reduced to
a minimum. The dynamics of the number of tad-
poles and adult frogs is subject to diametrically op-
posed laws. These are extreme expressions of a very
general law: the greater the ecological diversity of
the age stages of an animal, the greater the popula-
tion's capacity to resist an adverse combination of
external factors. It becomes comprehensible that
in conformity with the two main lines of biological
progress it is advantageous for "lower" animals to
lengthen the period of development and for "higher"
ones to reduce it.
The possibility of achieving biological progress in
fundamentally different ways (on the levels of the
organism and the population) to a considerable ex-
tent determines the structure of the ecosystem. In
the groups of organisms examined the same eco-
logical task is resolved in different ways. In
correspondence with this their role in the life of the
ecosystem is also different.
The need to maintain the metabolism level at a
constantly high level made it necessary to expend a
large amount of energy not on the building of tissues
of the body itself, but on maintaining the optimal
physiological state. A lion weighing 200 kg requires
six to seven times more food than a crocodile weigh-
ing just as much. Small mammals and birds expend
more than 95% of their energy on maintaining a
constant body temperature. These seemingly special
physiological characteristics of mammals and birds
caused a revolution in the structure of the biosphere.
The rate of energy transformation in communities
increased many times, while the efficiency of eco-
systems decreased sharply. In ancient ecosystems
the biomass of plants exceeded the biomass of ani-
mals only by four to five times, and no less than
15% of the output of the lower levels of the food
chains passed to the upper levels. In communities
of the new type the biomass of plants exceeds the
biomass of animals by tens and hundreds (at times
thousands) of times, yet the coefficient of efficiency
of the community does not exceed 2 to 3 %, but the
rate of transformation of matter and energy has
increased by tens of times. At the same time, the
appearance of warm-blooded animals facilitated the
establishment of direct biological channels between
the ecosystems of various regions of earth, and fused
the biosphere into a single whole. It would be possi-
ble to cite specific examples which demonstrate that
ecological events developing in the Arctic to a sig-
nificant degree determine the course of the most im-
portant ecological processes in the tropics.
Higher animals were powerful catalyzers of eco-
logical processes. Converting a massive quantity of
raw plant mass into materials easily assimilated by
plants, higher vertebrates created the conditions for
the development of highly fertile soils. At the same
time there began the flourishing of higher insects —
the pollinators of flowering plants. This led to
intensification of the biochemical evolution of plants,
94
-------
the creation of forms which were characterized by an
increased content of proteins and lipoid substances.
This, in turn, promoted an increase in soil fertility.
Worthy of attention is the fact that as a result of the
evolution of higher vertebrates, higher insects and
more advanced groups of plants on earth there ap-
peared steppe and prairie areas, and soils emerged
which were characterized by greater fertility.
In the plan of our topic it is important to em-
phasize the following. The appearance on earth of
higher organisms led to the flourishing of the bio-
sphere. Yet, at the same time, the morphophysio-
logical progress of animals had as a consequence a
decrease in the efficiency of the work nearly on an
order of magnitude. This could easily be appraised
as a sharp deterioration in the working of ecological
systems. But as evolution continued, it was also
accompanied by evolutionary changes of the eco-
logical systems, as a result of which ecological sys-
tems of a new type emerged.
There are grounds to assume that the changes in
environmental conditions caused by man's activity
will also have as a consequence the adaptive evolu-
tion of both organisms and their complexes.
The ecological crisis consists not only in the fact
that as a result of unreasoned actions of man, bio-
logical natural resources are perishing, but also in
the fact that the capacity of natural complexes for
self-regulation is being undermined or the system of
self-regulation "works" against man and mankind.
Hence it follows that the problem "man and the
biosphere" above all should be resolved on the
plane of creating the conditions for the development
of the biosphere in a direction favorable for man.
Industry pollutes the atmosphere, the soil and
water with substances harmful to everything living,
upsets the thermal balance established in individual
sections of the arena of life, increases the content of
CO2 in the atmosphere, threatens the integrity of the
ozone screen, and removes from biological circula-
tion greater and greater amounts of land (no less than
several thousands of hectares a day). It changes the
reflective ability of the earth's surface and facilitates
the development of a desert climate. This list could
be continued without end. Modern industrial society
indeed is introducing and, what is most important,
cannot but introduce all these disturbances into the
biosphere. The progress of human society requires
the development of industry, and the technophobia
detected in many articles in defense of nature (as if
nature needs to be protected, and not we, people)
frequently turns into indifference toward the fate of
people. However, if we exclude from our list (or an
analogous, more detailed and lengthy one) the dis-
turbances connected not with the technical strategy
of modern society, but with the errors in technical
policy and technical practice, this list would be
shorter and more meaningful.
In untamed nature the processes of production
predominated over destruction, ecological systems
became more complex, more productive and stable;
the degree of heterogeneity within individual
ecosystems and the degree of heterogeneity of the
ecological cover of the earth continually increased
(biosphere — organized heterogeneity).
In an urbanized environment the situation changes
substantially.
Ecological systems become simpler, "rejuvenate."
A significant portion of energy and oxygen is ex-
pended on restoring disturbed ecosystems, on the
processes of destruction of hard-to-disperse sub-
stances, the exchange of matter and energy slows
down. The efficiency of atmospheric homeostasis
decreases. Flora and fauna distinction between bio-
geographic regions are erased, endemic plants and
animals to an ever increasing extent are replaced by
cosmopolitans, new endemic plants and animals —
those of technogenic landscapes emerge, the number
of species having an elevated resistance to poisons,
medicines, and so on continually increases. The
biological "communications channels" between con-
tinents and biogeographic regions are being supple-
mented by technogenic ones. Cases attesting to a
disturbance of the natural balance maintained by the
biosphere for millions of years should not be re-
garded as the breakdown of a complex mechanism.
If during the Cretaceous period, at the very height
to the change of "kingdoms" — from the kingdom of
reptiles to the kingdom of mammal birds — there
had been an intelligent outside observer, he would
have undoubtedly noted the decline in the ecological
efficiency of the ecosystems of the earth and fully
well might have regarded this as the degradation,
the deterioration of the biosphere. This would be a
mistake. Such a mistake is the attempt to reduce
the changes occurring before our eyes in the degra-
dation of the biosphere. Naturally, the poisoning of
a river or the introduction of poisonous substances
into the soil will destroy nature. But these and
similar actions, no matter how widespread they are,
cannot be regarded as an expression of the strategy
of man of industrial society in nature; it is a devia-
tion from the optimal technical policy. There are
grounds to regard the changes in nature which were
discussed above as a reaction of life in response to
the changing conditions of the environment.
The simplification of ecosystems, their rejuvena-
tion, the change in the structure of individual links
of the food chains, the enhancement of the role of
animals as the destroyers of primary organic matter
— all these are not the simple degradation of the
biosphere, but its evolution under new conditions.
95
-------
Yet not all of these changes could a-priori be con-
sidered undesirable. They lead to an increase in
biological stability and create conditions for utilizing
the elevated concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Moreover, the new, rejuvenated ecosystems lacking
the internal coordination characteristic of ancient
communities, are distinguished by a lesser degree
of "closure," they affect the biosphere as a whole to
a greater extent.
These conclusions, which at present are based
on a large number of facts, should form the basis of
ecological forecasting. At the same time it cannot be
doubted that as a "new biosphere" emerges, in whose
development a leading role is played by human
activity, narrowly specialized species will decrease in
number, and species distinguished by great ecological
plasticity will increase. It could be demonstrated
that even now in vast areas of land and water in-
habited by ecologically representative species several
species predominate — ubiquists which fulfill a
leading role in maintaining the natural balance. From
this it follows that in the functioning of the modern
biosphere population mechanisms of maintaining
ecological equilibrium play a more significant role
than in "untouched" nature. This also determines
the main directions of scientific research and the
search for means to practically realize them.
The notion of evolution of the biosphere under
new conditions as the main factor in the formation of
the environment forces us to raise anew the question
of the interrelationships of man and nature. Man
should not assume the functions of the biosphere,
but should lighten its work load. I would risk saying
that the relationship of man to nature should be
based on trust.
This idea may be illustrated fully by a specific
example.
The water conservation and climatic role of forests
was evaluated long ago. Even the most aggressive
technocrats recognize that contraction of the forests
would threaten catastrophe. The shallowing of rivers
jeopardizes the centers of world culture and industry.
But, forests continue and will continue to be felled.
The solution is to plant forests. Their benefit is
beyond doubt; they stabilize the atmospheric and
hydrological regime of vast territories, and even
modest gardens and parks decrease the dust content
of the atmosphere by 40%. The benefit is beyond
doubt, the scope of work is immense. The total
area of protective plantings (including green zones
of cities) is approximately equal to the forest area
of Western Siberia. If we add to this the fact that
urbanization is almost everywhere accompanied by
the conversion of natural vegetation into forests of
the park type, it will become evident that man-made
forests in area, but not in their biological essence,
are becoming commensurable with natural forests.
They lack the main feature of natural forest ecosys-
tems — the capacity for self-development and self-
protection.
All work on creating artificial forests to a sig-
nificant extent reflected the strength and weakness of
technical thought that placed itself above nature.
If we cannot do without trees, we will assume all the
work and will resolve the biological problem by
strictly technical means. As a result, the expenditures
on replenishing and maintaining plantings are in the
billions of rubles. But, after all, another means is
possible: the cooperation of nature in creating spe-
cialized forest ecosystems in an environment changed
by man. The unification of the efforts of nature and
man will accelerate the process of creating productive
and stable ecosystems in a changed environment.
Observations of the change in individual species
of animals and plants and their complexes attest to
the reality of the posed task. It seems to us that its
complexity is exaggerated, which is clearly reflected
by the underestimation of the adaptive potentials of
individual species and their complexes. Suffice it to
say that the populations of some species of plants in
a few generations acquire a genetically consolidated
capacity to create productive and stable populations
- - and do so not in a simply adverse, but poisonous
environment (for example, on lands rich in lead,
copper and nickel, and, moreover, with a clear de-
ficiency in calcium and phosphorous). Entirely pos-
sible is the formation of communities functioning as
specific "neutralizers" of potentially dangerous in-
dustrial wastes, including radionuclides. Well known
among bacteria are "oil destroyers," the effectiveness
of whose work increases in the presence of vanadium.
The creation of strains of bacteria and fungi, which
effectively decay wood, would mean fundamental
progress in the practice of timber rafting, a problem
which is the present scourge of a number of produc-
tion units. Since the detailed analysis of this question
is not a part of our task, we will limit ourselves to
but one example. Nicotine is a terrible poison. But
after all, tobacco plantings need special protection
from specialized species of insects. This clearly
demonstrates that there are no fundamental limits
for the development of productive communities in a
unique environment. Naturally, in a different en-
vironment (upon first approximation, in different
biomes) the direction of work should be different,
but the notion of a unity of the biosphere should be
their common trait. Worthy of special attention here
are regions whose biological output is insignificant —
polar territories, deserts, high mountains. Thus far
the interest in these regions, apart from purely theo-
retical interest, has been determined by the possi-
bility of deriving "benefits." The notion of a unity
96
-------
of the biosphere makes it possible to see in these
regions, which constitute about 40% of the dry land,
a vast reserve of biological productivity. Here once
again there is needed a psychological breakdown in
the consciousness of man armed with modern equip-
ment. The obtainment from the indicated territories
of immediately useful products is possible, but eco-
nomically is not always profitable. However, the
overall increase in the productivity that offsets the
overall decrease in biological productivity on highly
urbanized territories, which normalizes the regime of
the atmosphere and hydrosphere of the planet as a
whole, is quite possible at the present stage of devel-
opment of technology. We have no room here to
dwell on the impending technical and economic diffi-
culties. But the now available experience shows that
they are significantly less than those which are con-
nected with the construction of major electric power
stations and similar facilities.
The development of a system of measures in the
above-indicated plan requires the development of a
system of observations on the changes occurring in
nature under the influence of man-made factors. Of
course, this system should be based on public health
norms. Taking into consideration, however, that the
same factor (in its qualitative and quantitative ex-
pression) has a varying effect on man depending on
the constellation of attendant natural conditions, an
independent significance should be given to ecological
monitoring. The size of individual species and their
state, as an indicator of environmental conditions,
are successfully being used at present (the content of
chemical substances in different tissues of organisms
at different levels of trophic chains; the rate of growth
of trees, the energy of photosynthesis, the micro-
biological activity of soils; the growth of lichens, the
development of various species of hydrobiota, and
so on). It is advisable to supplement this system of
regulation of the state of the environment with obser-
vations on a change in the structure of ecosystems,
their spatial and functional interrelationships. Of
particular importance is the analysis of ecological
homeostasis given a simplification of individual
trophic levels which involve or do not involve an
overall decrease in the biological productivity of
biosystems.
The analysis of the main trends in the develop-
ment of the biosphere and of the attitudes of man
toward the problems of the biosphere makes it pos-
sible to make a very general ecological forecast for
the immediate decades. If we digress from the
details, this forecast can be formulated in a few
words:
A significant change in the structure of the ecosys-
tem of the earth. An increase in the role of popula-
tion processes in maintaining ecological equilibrium.
The development of specific ecosystems of man-made
landscapes, which are capable of self-renewal and
self-regulation and are related by increased stability
and an increased capacity for biological purification.
On territories permitting only limited man-made
development, the development of biogeocenoses
which are distinguished by increased biological pro-
ductivity. Maintenance of the general balance of
the atmosphere at a level ensuring the optimal de-
velopment of human society.
To resolve this task there must be the incorpora-
tion of ecological expertise in industrial and agricul-
tural production and the incorporation of good
industrial operations in the practice of the use of
nature. The passive "protection of nature" is being
replaced by work on creating the optimal natural
environment, on the creation of ecosystems capable
of self-regulation in an environment changed by man.
97
-------
THE PROBLEM OF THE MAXIMUM PERMISSIBLE EFFECTS
OF THE ANTHROPOGENIC FACTOR FROM THE ECOLOGIST'S
VIEWPOINT
V. D. FEDOROV
THE PROBLEM
" 'Here we have a firm rule,' the Little Prince
later told me.
" 'I got up early in the morning, washed, got
myself in order, and at once set about putting my
planet in order'" (p. 20).*
But the planet of the Little Prince "was only a
bit larger than himself" (ibid., p. 18) and to keep
it in order, it was enough for him to root out the
baobabs and to clean out the volcanoes so that they
burned quietly, without any eruptions.
Of course, for us, the people of Earth, it is much
more difficult to keep our planet in order than it
was for the Little Prince. And this is explained not
so much by the incomparably greater dimensions of
the Earth as compared to asteroid B-612, as by the
absence of a single view on the order of things
among the numerous inhabitants of our planet. In
the age of the social disorder, the world's people,
for direct advantage, began to sacrifice the natural
wealths which could not be replaced. Thereby peo-
ple placed themselves "outside general ecology," so
that the consequences of their actions began to
threaten the existence of man as a biological species.
At the same time, the forms and scopes of human
activity became an important ecological factor that
transformed the face of the biosphere, as a conse-
quence of which further biological evolution became
directly dependent on the uncontrollable conse-
quences of technical progress.
It is practically impossible in a single address to
examine, even superficially, the numerous aspects
of the problem of the interaction of nature and man,
the problem of the place and transforming role of
man in the biosphere. Some of the questions con-
nected with the sphere of inhabitation concern the
sinister consequences of the reasonable actions
which were undertaken in the biosphere by man
without sufficient consideration of their indirect or
*Antoine de Saint-Exupery, Le Petit Prince (Russian
translation by N. TaT), Moscow, Izdatel'stvo Tsk VLKSM
Molodaya gvardiya, 1963.
distant consequences. One of these problems is the
problem of waste products, the most important as-
pect of which is the determination of the effects
which waste products have on the productivity and
future of biosystems. All the subsequent parts of
this article are devoted to the discussion of this
major problem.
THE PRODUCTION OF "WASTE PRODUCTS"
AS A BIOSPHERE PROCESS
In the biosphere, processes connected with life
are constantly occurring, and, if the scope of these
processes is sufficiently great to change "the face of
the earth," they are called biospheric. It is possible
to provide a sufficiently clear classification of bio-
spheric processes by dividing them into two cate-
gories:
—those connected with the evolution of life, as
a continuous series of successively more com-
plex forms, which in the final analysis has led
to the formation of man as a biological species
—those connected with the evolution of man as
a social being leading an intelligent way of life,
i.e., the social evolution of man.
If this classification proves acceptable, then the
biosphere from the standpoint of a systems ap-
proach should be defined not simply as the place
where interdependent processes connected with the
evolution of life are realized, but more precisely as
the system of connections within a space of the
planet between the evolution of nonintelligent and
intelligent life, i.e., between the natural and human
populations which coexist in geological time. These
connections may be very diverse in their essence
— from resource and trophic to moral and aes-
thetic.
To the biospheric processes connected with man's
existence may be ascribed:
—the production of food based on livestock
breeding and agriculture,
—the production of energy — hydroelectric sta-
tions, atomic and thermal power stations,
98
-------
—the production of housing (the construction of
cities, or the so-called process of urbanization),
—the production of material wealth which facili-
tates the daily life of man, as a result of the
development of light and heavy industry,
—the production of culture — the creation of
spiritual values.
In the opinion of V. I. Vernadskiy [1] man's
activity on the planet should lead to the conversion
of the biosphere into a noosphere, of the sphere
of activity of the human intellect. However, even
given very great optimism — a feeling inherent to
the physically and morally healthy man — we can-
not today combine the evaluation of the state of
the biosphere with the definition of a noosphere
as "the triumph of the human intellect." Rather,
more cautious and therefore more correct is the
definition of the biosphere as the sphere of action
of the processes of the production of food, energy,
housing and culture, which are aimed at the crea-
tion of the conditions for the material and spiritual
evolution of man, i.e., a technosphere. The exist-
ing loss of the metaphor in the definition of
a "noosphere" is undoubtedly connected with one
important circumstance — all the listed biospheric
processes entail not only the production of a target
net product, but also the production of a certain
amount of associated products called "production
wastes." In this, the elimination or reduction of
"production wastes" would significantly increase
the cost of the process of manufacturing an individ-
ual net product and, consequently, would raise its
net price. At present no country is in a position to
unilaterally agree to an increase in the net price of
products, which would lead to a catastrophic de-
crease in the country's national income. Therefore,
the problem of organizing "nonwaste-producing"
production remains today an idea fashionable in
intent and good in essence, which does not have a
sufficient material basis.
On the contrary, the cheapening of the produc-
tion of the net product inevitably exacerbates the
problem of "production wastes." And when the
nonspecific process of accumulation of "wastes,"
which accompanies directed production, reached
biospheric scopes, human society began to worry,
forcing national governments to put to scientists the
question: what are the possible consequences for
man and the biosphere of the accumulation of "pro-
duction wastes"? "Bad!" the scientists of different
continents answered unanimously. But since we
have not succeeded in fundamentally changing the
state of affairs with the production of wastes, inas-
much as the impelling reasons for decreasing the
net price of output have not been eliminated, and
it is all the same necessary to do something for the
future of our children and grandchildren, the scien-
tists were faced with a less clear cut problem, which
may be formulated precisely enough in everyday
language as follows:
"Well, fine . . . since there are, and will be wastes,
nothing can be done. . . . But tell me then, how
much waste can enter the biosphere without this,
in the final analysis, having an effect on our health
and the future of our children?"
The question is correctly posed and at the proper
time. And even when we, scientists, give it an intell-
igible answer, it is still not at all evident that hu-
man society will draw the correct conclusions from
it or, more precisely, will find in itself the strength
to follow the advice, which is based on precise
knowledge of things and the state of affairs.
"PRODUCTION WASTES" AS
ANTIREPRESSORS OF BIOSPHERIC
PROCESSES
Any process, regardless of its physical nature, can
be described by the parameters "input," "process-
ing speed" and "output." With respect to biospheric
processes, the conditions of the "input" are deter-
mined by the concentration of basic components
(C) — in the form of the basic raw material and
its diversity, as well as their reactivity (K) — with
consideration for their accessibility and with con-
sideration of the time and difficulty of delivery to
the point of production. The "processing speed"
depends not only on C and K, but also on the or-
ganization of production with consideration for
possible change (usually growth) in its scope. Fi-
nally, the conditions of the "output" are determined
by the amount of the net product (P) and its qual-
ity (Q), as well as by the production of a certain
amount of wastes (O), which reduce the net price
p. With respect to biosystems, of primary signifi-
cance is the "quality" of the wastes, in the sense
that when the quality of wastes is better, the lower
their toxic properties.
Let us note that the net product under the con-
ditions of intensive production (more precisely,
overproduction) may act as a represser of the proc-
ess, or repression will be slowed as a result of
reducing the net price of the product owing to a
change in the ratio of P and O in favor of the lat-
ter. Thus, "production wastes" at a specific stage
of development of society act as antirepressors of
biospheric processes, decreasing the net price of the
net product. This should indicate that the exacer-
bation of the problem of wastes also has the value
of a warning, since it precedes repression of the
processes of production of the net product.
This short digression into reality should illustrate
the obvious situation, that the problem of future
99
-------
evolution of the biosphere in essence has already
ceased to be a purely ecological problem. In it the
economic, social, ecological, and other aspects are
woven into one whole, into one system, making
the problem biospheric. Hereafter we will not exam-
ine the general outlines of the entire biospheric sys-
tem — at the center of attention will be, above all,
ecological problems and the problem of the per-
missible influence of wastes on biosystems. How-
ever, some general principles going beyond the
framework of ecology will nevertheless be formu-
lated as concepts, which make it possible to better
elucidate the features of the biospheric model.
MODEL OF THE BIOSPHERE
Figure 1 schematically depicts the biospheric
model. The features of the model are:
—The model envisages the consumption of the
energy of the sun and the resources of the
biosphere — the former is negligible, the lat-
ter is approaching the level which will limit
the scope of biospheric processes.
—The model concerns the historical aspect of
the development of the biosphere, as a de-
veloping, self-organizing system striving for
equilibrium.
The biospheric model has many features in com-
mon with the model of ecological succession:
—The prevalent importance of "input" at the
early stages of development of the biosphere,
when the system develops "as if there are
unlimited resources in an unlimited space, i.e.,
under the conditions of exponential growth.
Such a system is essentially nonequilibrious and
upon rough approximation may be regarded
as an open exposed system, see Figure 1A.
Natural ecosystems can easily handle a small
amount of wastes, mostly household wastes,
without appreciable disturbances in the bio-
sphere.
—The "equal importance" of input and output
in a balanced equilibrious system, when factors
limiting development come into force. Expo-
nential growth in this case is replaced by growth
dependent upon the repressing (the increasing
role of the products of output as repressers of
biospheric processes), limiting (the exhaus-
tion of irreplaceable resources) and injurious
(the harmful effect of wastes) mechanisms of
the system. Feedback, which envisages a slow-
ing of reaction, makes it possible upon a rough
approximation to regard the sequence of the
processes being realized in the biosphere as a
closed loop of transformations in an essentially
equilibrious isolated system (Figure IB). In
order that such a system might stably exist for
a long period of time, there should be envis-
aged the possibility of replenishing the source
of resources (most reasonably, through the
connection of S and R), as well as of the ap-
pearance of regulatory connections between P
and O, E-I and E-II, as well as P and E-II
(Figure 1C).
Figure 1. Schematic of biospheric model.
Both stages of the "biospheric succession" reflect
only the most vivid features of the states of the
developing system, when there passes through the
system a flow of energy that substantially changes
the entropy of the components forming it [2]. Fi-
nally, it would be interesting and might be even
important to establish the location of the biosphere of
1975 on the path of its conversion into an equilib-
rious system. Of course, we are still far from a
solution to the questions of replenishing resources
through solar energy, and enormous organizational
difficulties are preventing the establishment of con-
nections between P and O, E-I and E-II. However,
we can state that tendencies to "close" the proces-
100
-------
ses in the biosphere are at hand. Indeed, local crises
of overproduction of individual types of net
products, the problem of the negative effect of
wastes on man and natural ecosystems irrefutably
attest that the general contours of a closed system
are appearing very distinctly. True, the currents of
transformation in such a system are still not bal-
anced, and one might believe that the appearance
of a closed loop of transformations makes it pos-
sible to define the present state of the biosphere as
intermediate between the two extreme, above-de-
scribed, states.
The biosphereic model makes it possible to de-
termine the sphere of questions belonging to the
competence of ecologists and, in particular, the par-
ticipants of this conference. The central issue is the
question of the maximum permissible loads of
"wastes" (in the broad sense of this term), which
can be borne by man as well as by natural and
artificial ecosystems, without the risk of collapse of
the basic biological structures determining the ap-
pearance of biosystems. It is important to empha-
size that at issue, are irreversible and unbalanceable
changes of biosystems, as a result of which, either
the biosystem collapses and ceases to be a system,
or its structural changes are so substantial and sta-
ble that we have the right to speak of the "rebirth"
of the old system into a new one, with its inherent
new totality of values that determine its new ap-
pearance. Here, it is easy to see that the possibility
of "rebirth" pertains exclusively to ecological sys-
tems, while the irreversible degradation of systems,
which is caused by the effect of wastes, concerns
all biosystems without exception, including the hu-
man organism. Thus, the potentially dangerous ef-
fect of wastes threatens above all the health of man.
This influence may be direct, if the "wastes" di-
rectly cause different functional disturbances in the
human organism, being the cause of illnesses. The
study of this type of influence of wastes goes be-
yond general ecological research and belongs to the
competence of public health services. The effect of
wastes may be caused by their entrance into an or-
ganism along with food of plant and animal origin.
In this case, the field of activity remains outside
ecology, since the pollutants pass from the environ-
ment into ecosystems being utilized by man, ac-
cumulate in the bodies of organisms, migrating
along the trophic chain all the way to the finished
product in the form of a biomass of organisms used
by man for food. The latter act not simply as pas-
sive carriers of pollutants from the environment to
man. By accumulating and transforming pollutants,
animal and plant organisms, in turn, experience
the effect of pollutants, which in the final analysis
influences the dynamics of the sizes of populations
of natural ecosystems, i.e., changes their structure.
In this case, of especially great importance is, with-
in the ecosystems utilized by man, the separation of
the species on which "man is supported" (i.e., uses
for food), from the other species which coexist
with the former. Here, strictly practical considera-
tions stimulate the interest of ecologists not in study-
ing the structure of communities in general, but in
studying the fate of individual populations that are
valuable for food. Thus, the paths of the effect of
wastes, which "lead" to man, in essence are eco-
systemic, and we should substantiate some new
concepts of the approach in the study of the bio-
spheric model, and of its "ecological unit."
TWO USEFUL CONCEPTS IN THE STUDY
OF BIOSYSTEMS
The first concept — the concept of "alternative
mechanisms" — is based on the postulate which
can be formulated in the following way: any final
formation in biosystems is capable of emerging in
more than one way. This tenet implies the existence
in a living thing of alternative mechanisms of for-
mations (emergences). The concept "formation"
sounds somewhat abstract and should be made spe-
cific with respect to different types of systems in a
different way. Thus, for a-type biological systems
[3], a "formation" should be considered any inter-
mediate or final product of the processes (sub-
stance, compound) which participates in forming
the structural components of the "biological spec-
trum" — gene, cell, organ, etc. Indeed, of the sev-
eral hundred induced biochemical reactions hi an
organism, it is hardly possible to name an example
of the sequence of "conversions" of intermediate
products, which result in a synthesis of any com-
ponent, a sequence that would not be duplicated by
another sequence, with the component synthesizing
the same component. For r-type biological systems,
we can regard as the final formation the climactic
state of a community that is in equilibrium with a
complex of factors, which determines the living
conditions of each specific biotope. Here the "ser-
ial stages" on the path to the climax can differ sub-
stantially for the biotope of one type. With respect
to the biospheric model it is also possible to postu-
late the existence of alternative means which regu-
late the rate of the processes of interaction between
the elements of the system.
As is evident from Figure 1, the wastes from bio-
spheric processes are capable of having a negative
effect (dotted lines) directly on man's health
through the food chain, entering man's organism
along with food (I); on the productivity of ex-
ploited natural ecosystems, i.e., a reduction in man's
food base (II); as well as on the fate of natural
101
-------
ecosystems which are little or not at all exploited
by man, i.e., on biospheric processes connected
with the evolution of nonintelligent life on the
planet (III).
Figure 2 depicts in conformity with the concepts
of alternative mechanisms the elementary unit of
the interacting elements of the system.
(B)
B
I
I !
Figure 2. Individual units of the interacting elements.
From the laws of chemical kinetics, it follows
that the observable rate of the process of forma-
tion, which depends on the concepts of the initial
product (A) and the product being formed (B),in
reality will be some additive resultant magnitude
"v = v± + v2 +. . . + vn. Therefore in some domain of
the values, given v = f (A,B) = const., the change in
Vj will be offset by a change in v2, and vice versa.
The existence of alternative mechanisms which
maintain the constancy of the characteristics of the
final output of the process make it possible to apply
to the work of the individual unit of the interacting
elements (Figure 2) the generalized concept of
homeostasis [4]. If we accept that the concept of
homeostasis extends to the mechanisms of main-
tenance of the constancy of some characteristics
(v) owing to the inconstancy of others (vx andv2),
then the homeostasis of the system is "a mecha-
nism of regulation, which orders in time a change
of the features of the system in the direction of the
stability of the group of characteristics pertaining
either to the processes (r-system—for example, all
ecological systems), or to their results (a-system—
for example, the organism of man)" [3].
The second concept — the concept of the "sta-
tistical norm" — is based on the postulate which is
formulated in the following manner: the totality of
values characterizing the "output" of the proces-
ses regulated in the system by homeostatic mecha-
nisms, in the norm are subject to Gaussian distribu-
tion. This tenet implies the possibility of control
over the processes being realized in individual sec-
tors of the biospheric model. With the aid of the
criterion of correspondence (x2) or approximate
methods of verification, which are connected with the
calculation of the index of asymmetry gg = M3/s8
and excess E = M4/s4-3, where M3 and M4 are the
empirical central moments, and s is the standard
deviation, one is easily convinced of or has doubts
about the adoption of the hypothesis of normality.
If the magnitudes of gs and E are small and the
hypothesis "passes," it can be assumed that the
totality of values characterizes the state of the
"norm." Then the negative influence of the existing
level of "wastes" can be considered offset by other
processes of the system and, consequently, within
the framework of the maximum permissible effect.
On the other hand, if the hypothesis of normality
"does not pass," then the magnitudes of the values
gB>0 and E>0 may be regarded as indices of the
deviation from the norm, i.e., be a measure of
"pathology." Such sectors in the system require
man's operational interference, since they should be
considered to be outside the limits of the permis-
sible effect of wastes.
Finally, for the case when the factors distorting
the result of the measurement cause an effect pro-
portional to the very result of the measurement for
example, in the case of a sudden one: (a) of a
massed effect according to the "old" connection of
the contour — the so-called "emergency overload-
ing of the connection," (b) the emergence of a
"new" connection in the contour — for example,
a direct negative influence of a "waste" on some
biospheric process, the totality of values is usually
subject to the log-normal distribution, when not
the results themselves of the measurement, but their
logarithms follow the Gaussian distribution. In this
case it is not the absolute, but the relative errors
of measurement that are stable on the average, and,
as an evaluation of the average value, the most rep-
resentative is not the mean arithmetical (va), but
the mean geometrical value (vg). Then a conven-
ient index of the "deviation from the norm" might
be the ratio of the mean arithmetical value to the
mean geometrical value, i.e. [5],
1
-
n
xt
Va/Vg = -
'
Both concepts — alternative mechanisms and sta-
tistical norm — are especially suitable for the case
of the equilibrious model, of the biosphere, see Fig-
ure IB, when the currents of substances are bal-
ances, which increases the homeostasis of the sys-
tem as a whole. This makes it possible to introduce
into the evaluation of the state of the biosphere,
certain integral system characteristics such as re-
liability, stability and others, for whose analysis
102
-------
there are developed approaches and appropriate
mathematical apparatuses. However, for the "inter-
mediate" state of the biosphere of 1975, see Figure
IB, the above-formulated concepts are more useful,
not so much when studying the biospheric model
as a whole, as when analyzing its individual parts,
which pertain to the processes regulated by homeo-
static mechanisms. Among the nodal sectors we
should place the natural ecosystems that are ex-
ploited and unexploited by man (E-I and E-II).
Here the central problem, whose resolution rests on
the shoulders of ecologists, is connected with the
task of examining the force of resistance which can
be exerted by ecosystems (owing to the homeo-
static mechanisms) against the effect of wastes with
consideration for the toxicity of the latter (the
problem of the "ecological" quality of wastes).
The ability of ecosystems to resist the effect of
wastes has the goal of establishing the maximum
permissible level of their introduction into the eco-
system, i.e., the level at which the main indicators
characterizing the state of the ecosystems (above
all their productivity and stability) remain within
the limits of the norm. In the final analysis the solu-
tion of this basic strategic task of applied ecology
is inevitably reflected in the truly scientific deter-
mination of the permissible scale of "production"
of wastes in the biosphere, i.e., the formulation of
ecological conditions of the maintenance of the
equilibrium of the biosphere.
THE STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL TASKS OF
APPLIED ECOLOGY WITHIN THE
FRAMEWORK OF THE BIOSPHERIC
MODEL
In formulating the strategic task it can be said
that within the framework of the biospheric model
it reduces to the need to study the consequences
for the biosphere as a whole of the changes caused
by wastes in its ecological unit (E-I and E-II). In
spite of the obvious simplicity of the formulation,
the solution of this task apart from a purely prac-
tical interest also has a philosophical aspect, con-
cerning the problem of "the whole" and "the parts."
There are two alternative views of the features of
the interrelation of "the whole" and "the parts."
The first asserts that the whole does not repre-
sent anything that is not in the parts. The second
asserts that the whole is nothing more than the sum
of the parts. The systems approach, which is so
popular and constructive in science today, unequiv-
ocally speaks in favor of the latter point of view,
placing an equal sign between the concepts "the
whole" and "the system." Indeed, if we regard a
system as a totality of the orderly interacting and
interdependent components (elements), then it is
easy to realize that it is precisely the connections
between them that give rise to new features, and
these "new" features are formed into new charac-
teristics inherent to the system as a whole, and then
the entirety of the interacting elements (parts)
forms a single whole, i.e., a system. Therefore:
—The study of the connections in the system in
a definite sense is more interesting and prom-
ising for comprehending the whole than the
study of the features of the elements (parts)
forming the system.
—The analysis of the system, which is preceded
by a breakdown of the connections between
the elements (i.e., the breakdown of the whole
into its parts), does not make it possible to
effectively study the integral feature of the
system and, consequently, modeling — as a
methodological device — is a most important
device for studying systems.
—With respect to ecological systems, a third
consequence could be formulated, which fol-
lows from the postulate "the whole = the sys-
tem." Any biological study belongs to ecology
only insofar as it helps to understand the phe-
nomenon being studied in the ecosystem. Study
undertaken in another connection — of the
same feature of living beings or of the same
biological phenomenon — ceases to be eco-
logical and pertains in each individual case to
other appropriate sections of the biological
sciences.
In particular, the latter consequence clearly out-
lines the sphere of phenomena pertaining to the
department of ecology as the science of ecosystems
or, more precisely, the science of the systems of
the superorganism level of organization, within
whose limits the society of organisms and the en-
vironment function together as a single whole.
It is interesting that the basic tactical task of ap-
plied ecology so to speak "in the ecological con-
text" also concerns questions of the interrelation-
ship of "the whole and the parts," and can be for-
mulated by analogy with the strategic task as
—The need to study the consequences for the
ecosystem as a whole of the changes caused by
wastes in its individual sections.
In other words, the task reduces to the determi-
nation of the "tenacity" of ecosystems as a whole,
given local damages — of individual functions
within the entire society being examined or the
complete "mortification" of a part of the society
within some space. Diverse wastes are the damag-
ing factors. They function as a measure of the "te-
nacity" of ecosystems, as the diverse indicators of
103
-------
stability, which pertain to the ecosystem as a whole
or to its parts.
The tactical task of applied ecology can be easily
formulated, which facilitates the subsequent analysis
of the situation and development of regulatory and
preventive measures for protection of ecosystems
from harm. Let the state of the ecosystem be de-
fined by the total combination of values pertaining
to the processes with homeostatic mechanisms of
regulation. "In the norm," the magnitude of the
values are subject to Gaussian distribution and, as
dependent variables — Y15 Y2) . . . , Ym — they
characterize some set function from the arguments
X1; X2,.. ., Xn, which are independent variables.
The latter characterize the total combination of dis-
turbance characteristics for specific types of pollu-
tion. Thus, the task reduces to finding the equations
of Xj, X2,. .., Xn, for which the values of
Y1; Y2,. .. , Ym remain distributed normally, see
Figure 3.
Figure 3. Specific characteristics pertaining to individual
disturbance sources (xn) and individual responses
(ym) in the system.
Useful in this case is the study of dependencies
of the type:
—ym = f(xn), where ym and xn are specific char-
acteristics pertaining to individual disturbance
sources and individual responses in the system
respectively;
—an = f (Axn), where an is the index of the
asymmetry of the values of the function, and
Axn is the change in the level of the distur-
bance factor;
—an = f(An), where An is the index of the asym-
metry of the disturbance factor, if a priori it
is known or can, with a sufficient degree of
reliability, be assumed that "in the norm" the
disturbed factor is also distributed normally.
When resolving the formalized task in general
form we should pay attention to the features of the
study of dependent and independent variables in
ecosystems.
FEATURES OF THE EFFECT OF THE
DISTURBANCE FACTOR
We can single out two extreme cases pertaining
to the features of the effect of disturbance factors
of the environment on ecosystems.
The first pertains to an increase in the background
level of individual types of the application (the sec-
tion) of the disturbance source in the biospheric
model, and even in that part of it which pertains to
ecological systems. The increase in the overall
background of individual types of production
wastes within the connections foreseen by the model
makes ecologists quite helpless in the matter of pre-
dicting the expected consequences in the fate of
ecosystems. For example, the discovered tendency
for a rapid increase in CO2 in the atmosphere of
our planet is capable of resulting in the most un-
foreseen and, perhaps, unpleasant consequences.
The latter are so diverse in their nature and direc-
tion, that to make a reliable prediction does not
seem possible.
Only within model experiments is the ecologist
capable of studying individual details as, for exam-
ple, will the increase in CO2 concentration inten-
sify the process of photosynthesis? Another useful
method might be the creation of so-called "prelim-
inary" models, i.e., extremely simplified copies of
the real world, which make it possible to find the
"nodal points" in the control of the behavior of
systems.
If given the background effect we succeed in
finding gradients for the individual disturbance fac-
tors, then the possibility arises of making, in ac-
cordance with the gradient, a biological analysis of
the changes in the structure of ecosystems through
the selected indices — Y1( Y2,.. . , Ym. The main
emphasis here should be made on the change in the
relative abundance of populations and, of course,
on the change in the species composition of the
ecosystem, which is connected with the disappear-
ance of individual species. With this approach the
finding of the correlations between the level of the
disturbance factor x4 and the change in the biologi-
cal indicators y3 is the main method of finding the
connection between the dose of the influence and
the observable response (dose-effect).
The second case concerns the local damage to
connections or sectors in ecosystems by specific
types of wastes. Usually the magnitude of the emis-
sion is clearly insufficient to cause background
changes within a large ecosystem (biome) or even
a biosphere. Mercury and its compounds, which
are used as a fungicide in disinfection of seeds and
are later discharged into bodies of water with
waste water, may serve as an example of such a
104
-------
pollutant. The mercury compound is transformed in
the environment into highly toxic methyl mercury,
which accumulates in living organisms and, enter-
ing man's food together with a product (usually
fish) can serve as a source of poisoning of the pop-
ulation.
It is methodologically simpler to study the effect
of local pollutants than that of background pollu-
tants, since the organization of the experiment af-
fords effective opportunities for the study of the
connection of x, with the diverse responses of the
system — Y,, Y2, . . . , Ym.
During this study in the experiment of the selec-
ted indicators of the state (i.e., Ym), one should
consider the simultaneous effect on ecosystems of
many disturbance variables, some of which may per-
tain to background, some to local and, finally,
some to attendant factors of the environment
(changes not caused by the negative influence of
disturbances such as the seasonal changes in light
and temperature).
For predicting the "fates" of the behavior of eco-
systems it is absolutely necessary to consider and
quantitatively evaluate the interaction of the dis-
turbance sources frequently even of a different
physical nature. Thus, the strategic base of the study
of ecosystems, in which the effect Xn and the re-
sponse Ym should be connected by a quantitative
dependence, can be formed by a multifactor exper-
iment, which is planned on the basis of economical
and mathematically substantiated patterns of expe-
rience. The latter envisages the possibility of study-
ing the simultaneous and independent influence of
a large set of variables on biological systems of a
different degree of complexity [6]. Such an experi-
ment has the goal of studying the probable, expected
situation which may be forecast on the basis of
the tendencies of changes in the environment, which
are found when registering the changes in time and
space of the individual disturbance factors of the
environment [7]. As a result of the arrangement of
the experiment there can easily be obtained poly-
nomial models of the description, which contain
quantitative evaluations of the effect of the var-
iables [8]. These evaluations in the future may be
useful for obtaining approximate evaluations of the
coefficients in differential equations when construc-
ting dynamic models.
CRITERIA OF THE BIOLOGICAL RESPONSE
In the preceding section, when discussing the fea-
tures of disturbance factors, it seemed to be implied
that ecologists are capable of differentiating quite
simply:
On the one hand, the response Y4, which is
caused by a pollutant (the harmful source, indica-
ted in Figure 1A by the line of dashes), from any
other changes in the ecosystem, which are not con-
nected with pollution (for example, seasonal
changes, successions); and, on the other hand, are
able to differentiate a response-caused pollution
and leading to irreversible changes in the system
(collapse or rebirth into a new ecosystem) from a
response caused by the effect of a pollutant, with
which the system is capable in the end of dealing.
In this case we are in a position to study the ques-
tion: what reserve of durability does an ecosystem
have in respect to the harmful effect of disturbance
factors? An answer may be obtained if the indica-
tors selected for study and control (i.e., the depen-
dent variables) are sufficiently representative for a
determination of the state of the ecosystem. Un-
fortunately, the establishment of the priority of re-
sponses in a series presents many difficulties. Thus,
it is possible to state that if the number of inde-
pendent variables, whose effect is studied in the
experiment, can be sufficiently large, but unques-
tionably limited, then the number of registered re-
sponses in the series Y1; Y2,. . ., Ym presents many
difficulties. Thus, if the number of independent var-
iables, whose effect is studied in the experiment,
can be sufficiently large, but unquestionably lim-
ited, then the number of registered responses in
biological systems can be practically endless, since
any feature of a living thing can serve as the object
of control. Therefore, when selecting from the in-
finite series Ym a limited number of indicators, one
should rely on some specific principle of selection,
i.e., a necessary discriminating criterion.
Let us examine two approaches and their appro-
priate criteria.
The first approach is the professional-specialized
approach, when specialists in a narrow field (for
example, botanists, biophysicists, hydrobiologists)
have specialized knowledge that encompasses all
existing aspects or features of the object of study.
Corresponding to this approach is the intuitive cri-
terion of discrimination in ranking according to the
importance of the features being studied. This cri-
terion reflects in vague form the accumulated (at
times even unrecognized) experience of the special-
ist in resolving what is more and what is less im-
portant in the normal object of study. As an ex-
ample we can cite the point of view of a hydrobiol-
ogist who makes an a priori ranking of dependent
variables. Thus, when regulating water ecosystems
there is, above all, suggested the idea of using as a
response the most ordinary and traditional indica-
tors of hydrobiology: growth (productivity), ex-
penditure (respiration, life-long rejection of organic
material), state (consumption and assimilation of
food, rate of accumulation in hydrobiotas of indi-
105
-------
vidual pollutants) and others. It is completely evi-
dent that the creation of regulatory systems based
on traditional indicators is in principle of little ef-
fect, since any biologist specializing hi a narrow
field is capable of developing a substantiated scheme
of control over "his own" object. Such studies are
intended for long periods of time by specialists with
a high level of training and, having entered on this
path we would in essence have to admit to the need
for reforming (reorienting) in the direction of solu-
tions of the tactical task of applied ecology of all
the biological sciences and disciplines cooperating
with ecology.
The second approach can be called the systems
approach. It is this approach that determines the
content of modern ecology. The concept of levels
should unquestionably be recognized as the main
concept of the systems approach. To solve the tac-
tical task of applied ecology it is useful to slightly
expand the "ecological spectrum" of levels of or-
ganization, which is limited by populations and
communities. Thus, for the needs of regulation it is
useful to single out the following five levels of bio-
logical organization:
—subcellular — YI
—cellular (organism) — Yn
—population — Ym
—trophic grouping (associative) — YIV (simple
community)—YIV
—community—Y-v—(complex community).
The first two levels are outside the sphere of eco-
logical study, yet the information about subcellular
and organism disturbances, evidently, can be useful
not so much for evaluating the state of ecosystem
according to the selected Y1; as for establishing the
"harmfulness" of the factor disturbing the system,
since the information from YI and YI \ is often nec-
essary for obtaining evaluations characterizing the
environmental quality, i.e., the "toxicity" of individ-
ual independent variables.
It is easy to see, however, that the introduction
of the concept of levels of organization is capable
of somewhat narrowing the spectrum of biological
levels, owing to the discrimination of a series of
levels — gene, tissue, organ and others. However,
within each level the number of possible indicators
is excessively great. In order to significantly reduce
the number of selected variables, we should use in
addition the above-formulated concepts of "alter-
native mechanisms" and "statistical norm," which
make it possible to introduce the discriminating
criterion of the selection of dependent variables. In
fact, being based on the concept of hypostasis, this
criterion may be called conceptual. By using the
conceptual criterion it is possible to formulate the
following requirements of discrimination, which are
made on the dependent variables within each level
of organization.
The first requirement — to control the state of
biosystems one should select indicators which per-
tain only (!) to processes with homeostatic mecha-
nisms of regulation.
The second requirement — given that the first
requirement is observed, preference would be given
to the YI that characterize the nonspecific response
with respect to various factors that disturb the bio-
systems (for example, elevation of the body tem-
perature of an animal with various "diseases" of
the organism, or a decrease in species diversity
within a trophic grouping under the influence of
pollutants that are diverse in their nature).
The third requirement — given that the first two
are observed, preference should be given to the
integral indicators YI and first of all to those which
can be quickly and reliably measured by instru-
ments. Thus, an example of such integral indicators
in a living biomass would be the content of ATP
(adenosine triphosphate) and chlorophyll, which
characterize respectively the amount of living
material and the amount of energy going into the
system.
It should be noted that work on the selection of
indicators is being actively conducted in laboratories
of the department of hydrobiology of Moscow State
University. Preliminarily it can be reported that a
suitable indicator that satisfied the above-formulated
requirements for levels I-V could be:
—for YI—the membrane potential of cells,
which can be measured with microelectrode
equipment,
—for YH—an increase in intensity of respira-
tion,
—for Ym—the evaluation among individuals of
the population of the bilateral symmetry in the
distribution of features, the time of generation,
the ratio of sexes, the ratio of age groups,
—for Y™—species diversity, chlorophyll content,
—for YV—ATP content, ratio of the products of
different trophic groupings.
The listed indicators should be regarded as illus-
trative examples. The selection of indicators sub-
stantiated by the conceptual criterion is continuing,
and their priority is being discussed. But even now
it is becoming evident that their number can be
substantially limited. Thus, the formulated concepts
and requirements make it possible to transfer the
subsequent discussion to the question: in what way
is it possible to interpret the evaluation of the
ranked series of indicators, Yf, with respect to the
evaluation of the state of the entire ecosystem?
106
-------
HORIZONS OF APPLIED ECOLOGY
Vladimir Vladimirovich Mayakovskiy had one
childhood, well-known poem, "What Is Good, What
Is Bad."
The poet dealt with the problem, using specific
examples of bad and good human deeds. It is easy
to follow the parallels between the poet's solution
of the problem and the position of ecologists. Ecol-
ogists can also cite examples of what is "bad" for
the ecosystem — both from observable tendencies
of the change in indicators (for example, a decrease
in productivity or diversity) and from the features
of the dispersion of the evaluations of the selected
indicators, Yi, which "in the norm" should be dis-
tributed normally. This means that the ecosystem as
a whole is "healthy," or at least is successfully
resisting the negative effect of disturbance factors.
In this case it is possible to consider it stable, and
therefore all the values of the evaluations of stabil-
ity, derived by "any means," outline the domain of
the values of the "norm" of the ecosystem. This,
if you please, is a type of "ecological zero," the
source of reference of the health of the ecosystem.
Much more likely is the situation when a part of the
indicators Y4 within levels I-V, attest to a "path-
ology," while the remainder of the indicators attest
to the "norm."
What is to be done in this case? What judgment
does the ecologist have the right to pronounce?
Today this question is entirely unelaborated, and
we have the right to consider it as one of the most
difficult, most vital and most important for the solu-
tion of the tactical task of applied ecology.
"Pathology" of some indicators and the "norm"
of others place before the ecologist a strictly medi-
cal task, which is resolved by the therapist —
this is the task of "diagnosing" the disease. It can
be postulated that definite regular combinations of
"norms" and "pathologies" of individual indicators
are specific for different types of "diseases" of eco-
systems, or even are specific with respect to the
different physical nature of the disturbance factors
or pollutants (i.e., to the specific nature of "wastes"
in the broad sense of this word). Then the set of
features in the responses Yi for all levels I-V, under
the influence of one pollutant (for example, organo-
tin compounds) will differ significantly from the
features of the "behavior" of the responses, under
the influence of another pollutant (for example,
chlorinated phenols). If this is correct—and in my
opinion it should be correct—then a list of the
symptoms of each disease can be compiled. And
then the establishment of a diagnosis of a disease is
equivalent to the establishment of the nature of the
"pathogen" of the disease, i.e., the nature of the
disturbing influence. Therefore, the study by ecol-
ogists of the specific effect of specific wastes accord-
ing to the selected indicators will make it possible
to make a classification of diseases according to the
type of changes occurring in ecosystems. In turn,
the establishment of the origins of the negative
influence of wastes on the ecological unit will make
it possible to regulate the rates and scopes of the
industrial, agricultural and domestic wastes being
admitted into the biosphere.
If we succeed in making a "classification" of the
disease of the ecosystems according to the selected
indicators, then the next stage of the ecological
study of ecosystems within the framework of solving
the tasks of applied ecology would be the "clinical"
study of the individual illnesses, i.e.,
—observation of the development of the disease,
i.e., of the deterioration of the state of eco-
systems, and
—observation of recuperation, i.e., improvement
of their state.
Undoubtedly, this would require the organization
of a broad range of experimental studies on differ-
ent types of ecosystems, so that the "clinic" of the
individual illnesses would be studied thoroughly and
comprehensively.
This "medical" stage of the ecological studies is
today still in an embryonic state, but given the pres-
ent rate of development of science and, primarily,
the interest of society in the problems of applied
ecology, we can hope for its relatively speedy com-
pletion. For time does not wait, and mankind must
reduce to a minimum, the inconveniences caused
by the conversion of the biosphere from the "inter-
mediate" stage of 1975 to an equilibrious state,
when the technosphere of today will be transformed
into a noosphere, the advent of which was heralded
by V. I. Vernadskiy [1]. However, today the state
of the biosphere and the position of man in it seem
serious enough to cause the people on earth to be
wary. Therefore, in ending this report I will permit
myself once more to recall the delightful children's
book, which was written for adults:
"And here on the planet of the Little Prince
there are terrible, vicious seeds.... These are
the seeds of the baobabs. The soil of the planet
is completely infested with them. And if the
baobab is not recognized in time, you will
never get rid of it. It will take over the entire
planet. It penetrates it to the core with its roots.
And if the planet is very small, and there are
many baobabs, they will tear it to pieces"
(ibid., p. 20).
Our planet — the planet of people — like the
planet of the Little Prince, is also choked with
"terrible, vicious seeds." But these are not baobab
107
-------
seeds, these are the "wastes" of economic processes.
It is impossible to permit these seeds to sprout and
tear the biopshere "into pieces," as it happened
with one planet, on which lived a lazy-bones. Once
he did not weed out three little bushes in time....
Although the people of the planet Earth are by
no means lazy, I would like to end my presentation
with the words of Antoine de Saint-Exupery (ibid.,
p. 22):
"I can bear to preach to people. Yet few know
the threat of the baobabs .... that is why this
time I have made up my mind to betray my
self-control.
" 'Children.' I say, 'Beware of the baobabs.' "
REFERENCES
1. Vernadskiy, V. I., 1944. "A Few Words on the
Noosphere," Achievements of Modern Biology, vol.
18, No. 2, pp. 113-120.
2. Fedorov, V. D., 1970. "Features of the Organization
of Biological Systems and the Hypothesis of the "Out-
break of a Species in a Community," Herald of Mos-
cow State University, seriya biologicheskaya, No. 2,
pp. 71-81.
3. Fedorov, V. D., 1975. "Biological Monitoring: Sub-
stantiation and Experience of Organization," Hydro-
biology Journal, No. 6.
4. Fedorov, V. D., 1974. "Toward a Strategy of Biolog-
ical Monitoring," Biological Sciences, No. 10, pp. 7-17.
5. Fedorov, V. D., 1973. "A New Indicator of the Non-
uniformity of the Structure of a Community," Vestnik
MGU, ser. biolog.
6. Maksimov, V. N., Fedorov, V. D., 1969. "Mathemati-
cal Planning of Biological Experiments," in the col-
lection Mathematical Methods in Biology, ed. V. P.
Chtetsov, Moscow, Izdatel'stvo VINITI (seriya "Itogi
nauki"), pp. 5-37.
7. Fedorov, V. D., 1974. "The Stability of Ecological
Systems and Its Measurement," Izvestiya AN SSSR
[Proceeding of the USSR Academy of Sciences], ser.
biolog. No. 3, pp. 402-415.
8. Fedorov, V. D., 1975. "The Concept of Stability of
Ecological Systems," The First Conference on the
Comprehensive Analysis of the Environment, Tbilisi.
108
-------
ON THE ECOSYSTEM'S STABILITY
A. M. MOLCHANOV
INTRODUCTION
This report contains an attempt at the theoretical
analysis of the types of influence of man on the
environment.
Even the simplest mathematical model reveals at
least four possibilities — the influence may be pulsed
or long-term, it may be exerted on the system itself
or affect the regulatory connections.
Therefore, the posing of the question about the
maximum permissible loads depends both on the
properties of the system and on the nature of the
influence.
THE STATE AND THE PROCESS
The state of any system, including an ecological
system, is given by the set of numbers characteriz-
ing the quantity or level of the components forming
this system.
These important variables, which describe the
system, are traditionally designated by x with var-
ious indexes. The number of variables is determined
primarily by the complexity of the system, but
depends as well on the desired extent of detailing.
Thus, for example, the total number (or biomass)
of trees on an area under study may be divided
according to species, height, or age.
However, such data are sufficient only for the
purposes of classification ("inventory taking"). For
the tasks of prediction, and all the more so for the
tasks of management, additions and refinements are
needed.
The subsequent fate of the system in question
essentially depends on the siuation in which it is
found — the external environment. The state of the
environment in turn is described by some set of
numbers. We designate these numbers by the letter
y with indexes.
At first glance it appears that we need to bring
into the examination "the environment of the envir-
ronment," to examine another series of letters, then
the next one, and so forth, until all existing alpha-
bets have been exhausted.
Strictly speaking, this is true. If, nevertheless,
scientific study is at all possible, there must be a
serious reason for this. This reason is that each sys-
tem has its own characteristic tune scale and these
time scales usually differ radically for the system
and the environment containing it.
The stated situation permits a simple and mean-
ingful mathematical formalization:
_ , , t
j.. MvX-j, . . . , xn, yis. . . ,
(1)
dt
*!,... ,xn; YJ, ..., ye) l
-------
meters above sea level. This internally contradictory
statement signifies that we are not interested in the
geological processes which resulted in the raising
of the former ocean bottom to nearly 3 kilometers.
We ignore the "geological epsilon."
FIXED REGIMES
The ignoring of the small parameter <> means
consequently the fixing of external conditions. How-
ever, the state of the system in question may be
completely different when given the same values of
the external parameters y = «.
A forest in a given area may be mature and
healthy — this is one fixed state. The overeating
of leaves by caterpillars will not kill the forest, but it
will lead to another fixed state with sharply reduced
photosynthesis. Finally, a fire, having consumed the
forest, creates a third fixed state which subsequently
will slowly evolve under fixed external conditions.
Mathematically this means that the equation for
x may have several fixed states with the given para-
meters.
The basic ideas can be illustrated by the very
simple example of one variable x and one parameter
dx
(6)
In this case the set of fixed states of the system
which is given by the equation
0=f(x,«) (7)
is mapped by a curve on the plane (x, a).
The situation depicted above causes natural
association with the universal biological notion of
the states of activity and rest, which are character-
istic of all biological systems. There is no doubt
that such states are also characteristic for ecological
systems. Moreover, the general mathematical
approach is also fruitful in the analysis of social,
technological and technical systems.
However, it is better to retain the biological, or,
even, the strictly medical terminology, owing to the
fact that the questions under scrutiny have been
studied most of all in medical practice.
PULSED INFLUENCE
The states of activity and rest have a definite
stability. The proposed model makes it possible to
examine the basic types of reaction of a system to
pulsed influences. It is natural to interpret such an
influence as an instantaneous transfer from one
point of the phase plane to another.
As was already said, visual biological represen-
tations on an organism level are the basis. The
integration of the notions in the model makes it
possible to construct their ecological analogue.
Let us examine the obvious possibility, when the
state of rest is sleep, and the state of activity is
awakeness. In this case the value x should be inter-
preted as the level of motor activity, while the para-
meter a should be tied with the level of excitation
of the nervous system.
It is evident that this is an extremely simplified,
illustrative description. Nevertheless, it is useful for
an understanding of the possibility of a unified
mathematical model that does not depend on the
structural, morphological level of the system in ques-
tion.
Thus, for example, it is possible to attempt to
analogize the state of "activity" with the golden age
of the Helladics, when the entire peninsula was cov-
ered with mighty oak forests. At that time the state
of "rest" of this ecological system was its present
dense condition of thorny bushes and outcrops of
rocks. It is believed that the main cause was the
goats which had not so much eaten up as they
trampled down the underbrush. Freed mountain
streams washed away the soil, and karst depressions
completed the destruction. And now there are
almost no goats and the streams do not rage....
Let us return, however, to the model (Figure 1)
and examine the state of activity A, which is on
the branch AA'. The pulsed influence on the sys-
tem corresponds to the instantaneous displacement
along the horizontal line which passes through point
A. The nonlinear theory of oscillations suggests the
name "phase impact" for such a change of state of
the system. Such terminology is justified by the
extensively widespread name "phase space" for the
space of dynamic variables.
A'
Figure 1. A system with a different number of fixed re-
gimes. In the zone between «' and a", there are
three fixed regimes, whereas above and below
this zone there is one for each.
Of course, the phase impact upsets the equilib-
rium, but if the disturbance has not thrown the
representing point of the system beyond the line RA
110
-------
of the unstable states of equilibrium, then the sys-
tem in agreement with the equation of motion (6)
returns to the previous state of activity A. If the
phase impact throws the system beyond the point
U (on the branch RA), then the system enters a
state of equilibrium at point R on the line of the
states of rest.
Thus, the phase impact has a clearly defined
threshold nature — to the right of U there is the
full reestablishment of activity to the original level,
to the left of U the system enters the state of rest.
It is necessary, of course, to bear in mind the
arbitrary nature of the terminology — the state R
should be considered "rest" only with respect to
the state A. Thus, for example, a marmot may be
awake or be asleep, or may become lethargic. The
state of "lethargy" is "rest" with respect to activity,
while sleep is rest with respect to lethargy. For our
purposes it is sufficient to distinguish between two
contiguous levels which differ with sufficient force
in the intensity of the activity.
Let us now examine the consequences of the
pulsed influence on the parameters of the system.
The space of the parameters is called the structural
space of the system, since to each point in this space
there corresponds a completely defined nature of
the dynamics of the system, its very own, as is said
in the theory of oscillations, "phase portrait" of
the system. Therefore, it is reasonable to call the
pulsed influence on the parameters of the system
a "structural shift."
a>,
very simple case. Besides, the basic concepts are
sufficiently meaningful and rich even given this
most simple case.
Figure 2. The irreversibility of the structural shift. Fol-
lowing the shift AP, the system enters the bal-
anced working regime with a higher level of
activity.
Mathematically a structural shift is a displace-
ment in a plane (x, «) along the vertical passing
through point A. Obviously, it is worthwhile em-
phasizing that the plane (x, «) is the direct product
of the phase space (the line x) and the structural
space (the line a). In general, this is a space of very
great dimensionality, but the necessity of a clear
depiction makes it necessary to limit ourselves to a
Fjgure3. The gradual accumulation of structural recon-
structions, which results in a breakdown into the
inactive state R.
In contrast to the phase impact, the structural
shift necessarily changes the state of the system —
there is an "after effect."
The new regime that arises upon the achieve-
ment of equilibrium, which was disturbed by the
structural shift, may be rest, may be a state of
greater or less activity.
Another important property of structural shifts,
which is closely connected with irreversibility, is the
cumulative nature of such influences.
SLOW (EVOLUTIONARY) MOTION
Everything expounded above pertained only to
rapid motions.
The next problem in difficulty is the calculation
of slow changes of parameters. For lack of a better
word we will call it the "evolution" of the system.
However, it is necessary to bear hi mind that this
is not necessarily evolution in Darwin's sense.
The rapid motion of the variables x we would do
well to call the kinetics, the dynamics of the sys-
tem, while the slow internal structural changes of
the parameters would be best characterized by the
word "evolution," which opposes them verbally to
the kinetics of the system. Thus, for example, the
age changes of an ecosystem or organism are nat-
urally called an evolution in respect to vital func-
tions, metabolism and kinetics.
In order to emphasize that we are getting ready
to examine an expanded system, let us return to
the designation y for slow variables. They have
ceased to be external parameters and have become
equivalent, even though slow, yet all the same var-
iables of the system.
Here is a simple example. In studying a forest,
one might not be interested in the process of soil
formation and might consider the soil qualities a
111
-------
given parameter. However, if it is a matter of hun-
dreds and thousands of years, the standing timber
takes an active and important part in the creation
and change of the soil on which it grows. The
reversion to y means, consequently, not only the
expansion of the system, but also the significant
increase in the time scale during which the study
of the system takes place. Great time scales, let us
say, geological ones, may no longer be included in
such an examination. In conformity with this, the
landscape features — river valleys, hills, water-
tight layers — also must be considered invariable
parameters even for an expanded system.
Let us write out a more complete model:
dx
dt
= f(x, y)
(8)
The points on the curve f(x, y) = 0 are no longer
stationary points of our complete system.
Nevertheless, the motion in the vicinity of this
line occurs considerably slower, with a velocity on
the order of e, and not one, as at the remaining
points of the plane (x, y).
The points of the curve f(x, y) = 0 are called
points of quasi-equilibrium, while those points which
"attract" the rapid variables are called metastable.
The points of true equilibrium, which correspond to
the disappearance of both velocities (both rapid
and slow motion)
f(x,y)=C
(9)
lie, of course, on the curve of quasi-equilibrium,
and more precisely, at its intersection with the
curve g(x, y) = 0.
Yt,
'
Figure 4. Rapid motion toward the line of quasi-equilib-
rium f(x,y) = 0, and slow evolution along it.
It stands to reason that this "true" equilibrium
can be (and necessarily is) in turn a quasi-equilib-
rium in respect to even slower motions. We are
assuming, of course, that the problem under discus-
sion is correctly stated, for the necessary time scale,
with consideration of all significant variables.
Thus, the existence of two time scales leads to
two concepts of stability — metastability and com-
plete (true) stability.
It should, perhaps, be noted that the hierarchy
in the concept of stability is a reflection and con-
sequence of a profound case — the hierarchy in
the structure of the system being studied. Metasta-
bility and stability (for the sake of brevity we will
not add each time the adjective "true") is the
mathematical form of the important features of
the structure of complex biological systems.
RAPID AND SLOW MOTIONS
The distribution of the points of equilibrium on
the curve of equasi-equilibrium is of decisive signifi-
cance to the properties of the system and the
nature of its reaction to external interference.
Let us examine the case depicted in Figure 5,
where the system has a stable equilibrium on the
working branch AS, and on the branch of rest the
unstable equilibrium U.
Figure 5. The point S is stable; the point U is unstable.
From P1 and P2, the system returns to S. From
point Q, there is no return.
Assume that the system experienced both a phase
impact and a structural shift which threw it to point
pr Then the system quickly reestablished its work-
ing ability, and hence slowly returns to the stable
working point S.
The word "quickly" here and henceforth means
"after a time on the order of one," and "slowly" —
"after a time on the order of 1/e."
The system behaves differently when thrown to
point p2. At first it is even more active (x is greater
than S), but this is "unhealthy excitation" and
quickly "having expended its forces" the system falls
on the branch of rest UR. Afterwards there occurs
a slow "reestablishment of forces" — evolution to
112
-------
point R — then a return to a working state at point
A. The evolution along the arc AS leads to the com-
plete reestablishment of the original optimum state S.
The entire description is reminiscent of the his-
tory of a serious illness with a favorable outcome.
For a more substantive understanding of the words
"quickly" and "slowly" let us cite an ecological
example. In the opinion of specialists, the already
mentioned destruction of the forest in Greece oc-
curred over two or three centuries, while for its
natural reestablishment (evolution to point R) from
ten to one hundred thousand years will be required.
Events develop even more dramatically when SQ
is disturbed. From point Q the system quickly enters
a "shock" state on the branch RU below point U
and then there develops "progressive deterioration"
— slow evolution draws the system further and fur-
ther away from point S.
The entire plane (x, y) decomposes in the exam-
ined case into three domains.
The domain of stability lies above the line
R'RAA'. Between the line R'RAA' and the hori-
zontal straight line passing through point U there
is located the domain of adaptation.
Figure 6. An adaptive system. The domain above the hori-
zontal C is the domain of adaptiveness.
Below the horizontal of U is the domain of
depression of the system, if by this we mean the
inability to return independently to the state of orig-
inal activity.
STABLE AND ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS
The existing biological systems have covered a
long evolutionary (in Darwin's sense) path. Any of
them have both stability and adaptiveness. But dif-
ferent systems have the properties in different pro-
portions. This pertains especially to the ecological
systems found under extreme conditions — tundra,
desert, mountainous, saline. Unfortunately, this list
has now been noticeably expanded by the irrespon-
sibility of mankind.
It is thus more important to examine two extreme
cases — adaptive systems with little stability and
stable systems with little-adaptiveness.
Let us begin with an example of an adaptive
system.
The system loses its activity even with weak
phase impacts, such as, for example, SU. It is even
more sensitive to structural shifts. The shift SP
already leads to a quick loss of activity and long
recovery period RR. However, the system is capable
of self-recovery and long-term activity in the sector
of evolution AS. Moreover, even comparatively
strong shocks such as the great structural shift PQ
do not disrupt the system and even do not increase
significantly the length of the recovery period.
Stable systems react differently to interference.
Let us examine in detail the same function f (x, y),
but with a different arrangement of the points S
and C, which is determined, as we saw, by the prop-
erties of slow motion, i.e., of the function g(x, y).
The clearest feature of such systems is that they
"do not know how to rest." They are able to quickly
restore their activity even when there are strong
phase impacts and structural shifts. However, the
hitting of the branch of rest results in irreversible,
progressive depression. For the system depicted in
Figure 7, the domain of adaptation is the narrow
zone ending with the arc RU.
As a venture it might be proposed that stability
is characteristic of systems under favorable external
conditions.
Figure?. A stabte .system. The domain of depression
begins immediately after the line CUA.
But if the conditions are unfavorable, the system
should be adaptive so as not to be destroyed.
METHODOLOGICAL REMARK
From the viewpoint of quick, dynamic phase
variables the two examined systems are identical.
113
-------
The difference between them, and here a funda-
mental one, is found only with a careful analysis of
the evolutionary equation (for slow variables).
Therefore, strictly quantitative approaches (such
as, for example, imitation modeling, which was
fashionable in the recent past) is suitable for watch-
ing after a system, for resolving current, tactical
problems.
For the purpose of forecasting, the adoption of
long-term solutions, and strategic planning the
strictly quantitative methods are entirely insufficient
and should be supplemented by a qualitative, sys-
temic, structural analysis of the object in question,
by a comprehensive study of the nature of its inter-
action with the environment and type of reaction to
external interference.
HYSTERESIS
In practical work with any complex system —
ecological, biological or technical — we usually
have no opportunity to "look inside" the system.
Therefore interference and direction occur, as a
rule, "blindly" — by a change in the parameters of
the system and the observation of its reaction.
From this point of view adaptive systems produce
a strong impression on the researcher who is accus-
tomed to stable systems. There the situation is sim-
ple — to each value of the governing parameter
there corresponds a quite definite working regime.
But now the adaptive systems are "capricious."
If we give some a today, the system works. If we
give the same a tomorrow, the system does not
react. And this is in the simplest case, when the
system has in all two metastable states.
Meanwhile nothing prevents even a one-dimen-
sional (but complex) system from having several
regimes of a differing degree of activity.
In such systems there arise hysteretic phenomena
that are described in the simplest case by the con-
cept of the hysteresis loop.
Figure 8. Four metastable regimes, which are divided by
three unstable quasi-stationary states.
The phenomena develop in the following way.
If the system is initially in state R, then the increase
in the governing parameter a beyond the limit «"
leads to a breakdown in regime A. However, the
attempt to return to regime R by a rapid decrease
in a does not lead to the desired result — the sys-
tem remains in regime A. There must be a very
noticeable decrease in a — below the "lower thresh-
old" of the hysteresis a' — in order to return to the
branch of regimes R. In other words, it is possible
to approach regime R only from below, and regime
A only from above.
Figure 9. A hysteresis loop formed by the two branches of
the regimes A and R.
RELAXATION AUTO-OSCILLATIONS
An additional remarkable situation is a distinctive
feature of adaptive systems — they can exist in
general without having a stable stationary state.
This can easily be seen from the following cele-
brated example.
x
Figure 10. An auto-oscillating regime. A generator of dis-
continuous oscillations.
In the strict mathematical sense this example was
carefully studied in the works of van der Paul,
Andronov and others. For our purposes it is im-
portant to emphasize that oscillations of this type
are not the specific property of radio engineering.
On the contrary, any organism with its clearly
periodic alternation of activity and rest is a similar
114
-------
auto-oscillating system. The daily rhythm is a con-
sequence and evolutionary adaptation of an arbi-
trary, initially auto-oscillating regime.
More complex, ecological systems have adopted
(in the middle latitudes) an annual cycle, man-
aging without the external period in the tropics.
This attests clearly enough to the endogenic, inter-
nal auto-oscillating basis of the adopted (daily,
monthly and annual) cycles.
"THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY"
Real biological systems always contain a large
number of components of the structural, chemical
and morphological type. It seems, therefore, that
there must be many variables for the modeling even
of not very complex biological systems.
Not by chance do many existing models of eco-
logical systems contain tens and hundreds of var-
iables of the same time scale.
Figure 11. A current pipe. The varying fate of trajectories
beginning at near points.
The strictly computational difficulties indeed
grow very rapidly as the number of variables grows.
This is evident from the following simple discussion.
Assume that to study the dynamics of a complex
system we calculate on a computer a pencil of tra-
jectories which is "dense" enough so as not to over-
look an interesting regime.
Let us assume a net with ten points for each
"n" dynamic (phase) variables. Then the total
number of trajectories in this current pipe is huge:
N=10"
With the high speed of modern computers of
ten billion operations per second (S = 1010), in
an entire year of continuous calculation
(1 year =3.15 X 10T sec) it would be possible to
handle a system of the eighteenth order.
A system of the twentieth order would require
100 years .... The fantastic suggestion of increas-
ing the high speed of computers by 10 orders would
lead to a system of only the thirtieth order.
All of this means, of course, only one thing: The
complete, absolute helplessness of the strictly tech-
nical approach, the lack of promise of the methods
of direct examination in ecological tasks of even
average difficulty.
Only thought, philosophy of life and science can
help.
THE BASIC ROLE OF TWO-DIMENSIONAL
SYSTEMS
The theory of stability of dynamic systems
initially arose in celestial mechanics in the works
of Poincare, Lyapunov and their followers. Subse-
quent development in the works of Andropov,
Chetayev, Bogolyubov, Tikhonov and many others
led to the creation of profound qualitative methods
of studying general dynamic systems.
For our purposes one simple consequence of the
general theory is essential. In order to determine
the stability of a stationary state it is necessary to
find n characteristic numbers of X, by solving the
age-old equation det 11 A-XE 11 = 0, where A is the
matrix of the linearized system whose coefficients
depend, of course, on the parameters of the system.
The characteristic numbers of X (their n pieces),
when n is the dimensionality of the system, which
generally speaking are complex, also depend on the
parameters. The stability of a stationary state is
determined by the signs of the real parts,
p = ReX,
of the characteristic numbers.
If all p are negative, p<0, then the stationary
state is stable.
However, when the parameters change, the sta-
bility may be lost. For this it is sufficient for just
one of the p to become zero and then become posi-
tive. In all there are just as many numbers as the
dimensionality of the system, i.e., there are very
many in complex systems. However, "normally"
these numbers do not all at once become zero, but
only one at a time. Of course, there may be situa-
tions in which several p at one time become zero,
but for this a very special combination of values of
the parameters must be "examined."
This reasoning is not at all strict; it nevertheless
shows that more frequent, and thus more important
for the applications, is the case when the stability
is lost precisely because of one — the only —
characteristic number.
This conclusion is very important, for from this
it follows that the normal case in the most complex
115
-------
system is the existence either of two or one signif-
icant variable.
If the real root intersects zero, the one is the
significant (unstable) dynamic variable.
But if the complex root becomes purely imag-
nary, then two significant variables arise.
With subsequent change in the parameters some
other pair of variables may lose their stability, but
the main occurrences happen precisely with the
transition from stability to instability, but not with
a complication of the nature of instability.
And it is precisely for these decisive extreme
situations that there are serious grounds to doubt
that there will be two or even one (in the case of
a real root) significant variable.
THE TRANSITIONAL PROCESS OF
THE TWO-DIMENSIONAL SYSTEM
What exactly happens after the stability of a
stationary point is lost?
In the case of a real root (the unipolar case)
there arises the quick motion of the type of the
transistion W~~*A in Figure 1 and the .system will
simply shift to a new stationary state.
An exactly analogous situation can also arise in
the two-dimensional case (the loss of stability of
a complex root).
Figure 12 depicts the situation with a "normal"
non-extreme value of the parameters of the system.
Let the system be in the state S. Let us begin to
change the parameters. It may happen that point C
will merge with the node S, which will lose its sta-
bility and undergo the quick transitional process
S~*F along the separatrix CF. There will arise a
new stationary state — the focus F. It is even eas-
ier to imagine the reverse process — the confluence
of C with the focus F.
BIRTH OF THE LIMIT CYCLE
However, in two-dimensional systems there may
be a fundamentally new phenomenon — the disap-
pearance of the stationary state and the appearance
of a stable periodic regime — the limit cycle.
Let the system whose portrait is depicted in Fig-
ure 13 be in the stable state F. The domain of
attraction of this state is the interior of the unstable
limit cycle C. If when the parameters change the
cycle C shrinks into the point F, there occurs a
rigid excitation of oscillations. The system shifts to
an oscillating regime, periodically running over the
limit cycle Z.
Figure 12. The separatrixes AC and BC isolate the domain
of attraction of the focus F. The remaining
trajectories bend toward the stable node S.
Figure 13. Within the stationary limit cycle is the un-
stable limit cycle C, which surrounds the
stable focus F.
This same effect arises when there is a suffi-
ciently strong phase impact which takes the system
beyond the bounds of cycle C. In this instance there
also arises a transitional process which does not
lead to a new stationary state. As in the first case
there arise stable oscillations with a clearly defined
period along the stable limit cycle Z.
CONSTANT (FLOW) INFLUENCES
The interaction of man with the environment is
not exhausted, of course, by a one-time interfer-
ence.
More typical is, on the contrary, a constant influ-
ence on the system. A typical example is commer-
cial fishing. Annually a certain number of speci-
mens are taken from their populations.
In formal mathematics this is a negative flow in
the system. It is influence directly on the system
and it can be described by a change in the right side
of the equation for x:
dx
116
-------
This elementary calculation already shows that
the constant influence on the system is more com-
plex than the pulsed influence on the parameters,
because it leads not simply to a change in the para-
meter, but to an increase in the number of para-
meters, to a change in the dimensionality of the
structural space.
The constant influence on the environment cor-
responds to the appearance of an analogous flow
current in the equation for y:
An example of this influence is the constant dis-
charge of industrial wastes into a river or lake.
An analysis of possible reactions of systems to
such influences which is in any way complete is a
complex task.
Even a correct posing of the question offers ser-
ious difficulties and should be the object of further
research.
It is possible nevertheless not to imagine how
such research might develop. The point of depar-
ture should be the division of systems into stable
and adaptive.
This is evident from the fact that given suffi-
ciently small p and q, adaptive systems remain adap-
tive, and stable systems, stable.
This simple consideration (the traditional mathe-
matical argument "on continuity") shows the result
of research would be, apparently, a more detailed
classification of both adaptive and stable systems.
Intuitive considerations give grounds to hope that
the modern methods of the qualitative theory of
ordinary differential equations are quite sufficient
for a complete examination of this problem.
The difficulty will most likely be to give a suffi-
ciently rough classification, to avoid the niceties
unnecessary for practical work, to which mathe-
maticians are so inclined.
THRESHOLD INFLUENCES
The theoretical analysis made in this report leads
to the conclusion:
The traditional differentiation of threshold and
cumulative Influences on biological (in particular,
ecological) systems has reasonable grounds only
under completely defined conditions:
First, the influence is of an instantaneous, pulsed
nature.
Second, the times of observation of the reaction
are small in comparison to the time of the spon-
taneous structural reconstruction of the system.
It also follows from the analysis that a more
rough and general description of the properties of
the system emerges when introducing the concepts
of stability (metastability) and adaptiveness.
These concepts follow from the general concept
of stability when considering the hierarchy in the
structure of real biological systems, which leads to
a hierarchy of radically different time scales.
The question is raised of the more detailed classi-
fication of systems according to the reaction to con-
stant (flow) influences.
CONCLUSION
The theoretical study of the problem of stability
of ecological systems is a task of great complexity
and extreme topicality. It requires the application
of an entire arsenal of mathematical means ob-
tained in pre-biological natural science, and, of
course, the development of new approaches, ideas
and methods.
At present the state of affairs in methodological
questions is entirely unsatisfactory.
Even well-known mathematical methods are used
in ecological studies with insufficient classification.
The well-known methods of Lyapunov are well
suited for the description of "dynamic impacts" on
the ecological system, of the type of the sudden
change in the number of one or several species
belonging to the ecosystem. However, the structural
shifts that correspond to the parametric influence
on the system (the change in the water or salt re-
gime, pollution, etc.) do not have in ecological
works any adequate mathematical description.
A disturbing break between theory and practice
has arisen and threatens to become entrenched. For
questions of long-term forecasting, planning and
decision-making it is absolutely necessary to know,
what happens when there are structural reconstruc-
tions in biosystems? Yet theoretical works repeat
in quasi-biological terms the well-known mathe-
matical results, and quite frequently with mistakes.
Meanwhile, quite similar problems have been
dealt with for a long time and quite fruitfully in
other fields of biology — physiology and biochem-
istry. In a completely different field of knowledge,
engineering, also very great is the role of struc-
tural reconstructions, a system having a very spe-
cific form of the theory of optimum regulation. In
the listed areas, independent contacts have long
been developing with mathematics, and definite
successes have been achieved.
Consequently, a bountiful collection of specific
tasks has been accumulated from a broad circle of
branches of knowledge, a collection having never-
theless a profound internal common character. The
consistent conducting of mathematical research in
this area may lead to the development of a suffi-
ciently general approach — a theory of adaptive
117
-------
systems. The deep internal cause for the possibil-
ity of such formalization is the morphological heir-
archy of complex biological systems, which is
dynamically manifested in the kinetic hierarchy, in
the set of motions with a radically different time
scale. These properties are manifested most vividly
precisely at the organism level, being consolidated
by billions of years of biological evolution.
It is useful, therefore, even terminologically
("adaptiveness") to emphasize the desire to incor-
porate "the lessons of history," the desire to carry
over to technological and ecological systems the
principles of regulation and management, which
have demonstrated their effectiveness in rigid tests
of natural selection.
Regardless of the possibility or impossibility of
constructing a sufficiently general and meaningful
mathematical model, the analogy with a whole
organism is useful in itself. This analogy puts in
sharp relief the question of creating an adequate
system of monitoring. Biology leaves no room for
doubt about the importance of the nervous system.
Without a nervous system (the internal system of
"observation and reporting") there could not be
either effective management or even the very exis-
tence of any complex system.
Another aspect of this analogy is the selection
of subsequent variables that correspond to the dy-
namic hierarchy of the system. There, also, the role
of the study of experimental regimes becomes more
comprehensible for revealing the hierarchical struc-
ture and construction of an adequate system of
monitoring on the basis of indicator types, compon-
ents, and properties.
Such in general outlines are some of the method-
ological questions raised before mathematicians by
the present state of the problems of environmental
protection.
118
-------
ECOLOGICAL MODELING AND ESTIMATION OF STRESS
RICHARD A. PARK
INTRODUCTION
The estimation of ecological stress can be facili-
tated by a variety of modeling procedures. Such
procedures include 1) multivariate analysis, which
makes it easier for investigators to perceive the
intensity of impact that man has had on the natural
environment, and 2) simulation modeling, by which
one can gain a better understanding of complex
environmental relationships and can therefore make
a better prognosis of potential impacts. In partic-
ular, simulation modeling has advanced to the
stage in the United States where it can be used to
examine the potential effects of stresses on both
terrestrial and aquatic systems.
In this paper the application of these techniques
will be demonstrated by a series of examples taken
from the long-term study of Lake George, New
York. The study began several years ago with a
multivariate analytical survey, followed by the
development and implementation of an aquatic eco-
system model; it is presently being completed with
the development of a terrestrial ecosystem and land-
use model that will be coupled with the aquatic
model.
Lake George is of particular interest because it
has been a principal site in the U. S. International
Biological Program. It is a long, narrow, moderately
deep lake (50 km long, 5 km wide at the widest
point, and 18 m average depth). The watershed
consists of mountainous metamorphic terrane and
is approximately 492 km2, in comparison with the
lake area of 114 km2. Consequently the lake is
naturally oligotrophic. However, a heavy concen-
tration of tourists at the southern end of the lake
could be expected to have a detrimental impact on
the water quality.
MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS
In order to rapidly and efficiently determine the
stress that tourism has been placing on the lake,
multivariate analysis was performed on diatom
death assemblages from 125 sample stations located
systematically throughout the lake, see Figure 1 [1].
Numerous prior studies of diatoms suggested that
CANADA
10.
11.
Lake Ontario
Lake Erie
Lake Champlain
Lake George
Hudson River
Adirondack Mts.
Buffalo
8. Syracuse
9. Albany
Troy
Montreal
12. St. Lawrence River
13. Massachusetts
14.Connecticut
15.Vermont
16.New York City
Figure 1. Diatom sample stations, Lake George, New York.
they would be suitable indicators of nutrient enrich-
ment, and by studying the diatom frustules con-
tained in the top several mm of sediment a time-
averaged indication of impact would be obtained.
The multivariate analytical strategy was designed
to obtain the best environmental interpretation [2].
R-mode (variable-by-variable) cluster analysis of
the diatom data showed that there was no appre-
119
-------
ciable redundancy among the diatom types. Q-mode
(sample-by-sample) cluster analysis showed that
the samples grouped in a number of classes at high
levels of similarity, see Figure 2.
Ordination emphasized the environmental grad-
ients among the samples and made it possible to
interpret the relationships of the clusters shown in
Figure 2. Particular attention was given to the dis-
tribution of those diatom types that were known to
be indicators of oligotrophic or eutrophic condi-
tions. An example is the distribution of the genus
Cyclotella, see Figure 3, which in general indicates
oligotrophic, or nutrient-poor conditions. By noting
the concordant gradients of the various indicator
types, the general trend of nutrient enrichment
among the samples was determined. A gradational
series of patterns was assigned to the clusters to
represent their positions along the nutrient gradient
in the model, see Figure 4.
These same patterns were plotted on the map of
Lake George in polygons enclosing each of the
respective sample stations. The result is a map
showing the nutrient stress on each part of the lake,
see Figure 5. As one might expect, the nutrient-
enriched areas are adjacent to the centers of popu-
lation, moderately-enriched areas are in more
sparsely populated parts of the drainage basin, and
nutrient-poor areas are in the undeveloped parts.
SIMULATION MODELING
Aquatic
Understanding of the complex relationships of
the Lake George ecosystem has been increased
greatly by implementation of the aquatic model
CLEANER. This comprehensive ecosystem model
was developed by 25 investigators in the Eastern
Deciduous Forest Biome, U. S. International Bio-
logical Program [3]; it is being improved contin-
uously, especially with the addition of environmen-
tal-management capabilities [4].
The model simulates 20 compartments, most of
which are illustrated in Figure 6. Each of these is
represented by one or more equations; mathemati-
cal functions are incorporated for each significant
ecologic and physiologic process. Such functionality
in the modeling ensures generality and permits
greater application for management purposes.
CLEANER demonstrates adequate fits of pre-
dicted curves to observed data, see Figure 7. Para-
meter values, such as optimal temperatures and
maximum photosynthetic rates, were based on the
literature and cooperative IBP studies [5]. No at-
tempt was made to obtain perfect fits by changing
these well established parameter values.
Analysis of detailed environmental relationships
PERCENT SIMILARITY
100 75 50
i i i i r i i i i i i i i I
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
0
P
Q
R
T
U
C
D
Figure 2. Q-mode cluster analysis of Lake George diatom
samples.
120
-------
84%
Figure 3. Distribution of Cyclotella in ordination model.
WATER
DEPTH
NUTRIENT
ENRICHMENT
Figure 4. Distribution of clusters in ordination model.
is enhanced by the use of plots showing the pre-
dicted time-courses of the modeled process rates
[5]. For example, Figure 8 shows that the concen-
tration of orthophosphate in Lake George at any
given time is predominantly the result of the biotic
processes of uptake by phytoplankton and remin-
eralization by decomposers and animals; the con-
tribution from streams is insignificant. Assuming
that the functionalities of the model are reasonably
correct, one can infer that decreasing the phosphate
loadings in the streams would have little effect on
the dynamics of phosphate in the lake.
Perturbation of the driving variables, such as
phosphate loadings, results in simulations that esti-
mate the complex effects of environmental stress on
all major components of the ecosystem. Most Amer-
ican modelers recognize that the estimations cannot
be considered as precise predictions, but they do
believe that useful insights can be derived.
Figures 9 through 11 exemplify the simulations
that can be obtained in less than five minutes each,
using the time-sharing capability of a fast computer
available to personnel of the U. S. Environmental
Protection Agency from remote terminals anywhere
in the United States.
In the first example, see Figure 9, phosphate
loadings to Lake George have been decreased to
one-fifth of normal. The ecosystem is slow to
respond, but blue-green algae and the fish gradually
decrease in biomass over a period of several years.
In the next example, see Figure 10, a sustained
increase in temperature of 5°C results in an increase
in blue-green algae and a slight decrease in lake
trout. In the last example, see Figure 11, an increase
in the extinction coefficient of the water, compar-
able to the effect of moderate siltation, causes a
slight decrease in biomass of net and nannophyto-
plankton, but again the noxious blue-green algae
increase.
The validity and potential applicability of
CLEANER is being tested with data from several
European lakes. Of particular interest at this time
of renewed U. S.-USSR cooperation is the adaptation
of the model to Slapy Reservoir, Czechoslovakia.
Extensive changes have been made, including
development of a two-layered version to represent
stratification, changes in parameter values to repre-
sent European species, and addition of through-
flow terms, see Figure 12.
Terrestrial
In order to fully understand the potential threat
of stresses on Lake George and other freshwater
ecosystems, it is advisable to utilize terrestrial models
as well. This was recognized by the Lake George
group, and a case study was recently completed,
demonstrating the applicability of combining terres-
trial and aquatic models [6].
As a part of the case study, LAND, a model to
simulate land-use changes and vegetational succes-
sion, is being developed [7]. The model combines
the approach to studying land-use changes of Hett
[8] and the forest succession model of Shugart and
others [9]. However, it is more applicable to prob-
lems of environmental impact because it subdivides
121
-------
The Outflow
Baldwin
Smith Bay
ii
t
Northwest
Bay Brook
Campsites
The Narrows
Hueletts
Landing
North Bolton
Bolton Landing
Bolton
Westside
Kattskill Bay
'Cleverdale
'Crosbyside
Figure 5. Distribution of clusters, Lake George.
122
-------
a study area into km2 cells and considers the site-
specific soil, slope, vegetational, aesthetic and cul-
tural characteristics of each. It is anticipated that
simulation results can be represented by maps such
as those of the calibration data, see Figure 13.
Eventually models such as CLEANER and
LAND, as well as hydrologic models, can be cou-
pled to estimate basin-wide effects of environmen-
tal stress, see Figure 14. At Lake George, use of
information from 7,000 returned questionnaires on
environmental perception will permit evaluation of
the cultural and economic implications of these
environmental effects [4].
SUMMARY
Ecological modeling is useful in estimating the
impacts of environmental stresses. A multivariate-
analytical approach facilitates interpretation and
delineation of biotic responses to stresses such as
nutrient enrichment. Aquatic and terrestrial simula-
tion models provide insights into complex relation-
ships, and, through perturbation analysis, permit
evaluation of the consequences of environmental
impact. The full potential will be realized when
these models can be coupled.
. NANNOPHYTOPLANKTON
• NET PHYTOPLANKTON
A BLUE-GREEN ALGAE
NANNOPHYTO-
,r *>'••'"' A
"v 'BLUE-GREEN
A ALGAE
h®.
BLUAf(?AfE^/ NUTRIENTS DECOMPOSERS^
NANNOPHYTOVNET PHYTO- MACROPHYTES
PLANKTON V PLANKTON
HERBIVOROUS HERBIVOROUS
IS/
il(6)
CL.ADOCERANS/ COPEPODS \
SUSPENDED
ORGANIC
MATTER1
•CLADOCERANS
ACOPEPODS
•OMNIVOROUS ZOOPLANKTON
/ • v\ •
COPEPODS // Xi^; * . .
S
ww^
I " A ; •„' * ^CLADOCERANS
OMNIVOflOUS ZOOPLANKTON
xSEDIMENTED
^00RGANIC j s a = :=. -i
BASS-LIKE (57 CARP-LIKE MATTER " ? s ^
FISH FISH
Figure?. Comparison of predicted and observed values
Figure 6. Compartments in the aquatic model CLEANER. using CLEANER.
123
-------
0.015 -
CD
0.010 -
CD
Z
Q
O 0.005-
O
LU
Z
< 0.0 -
-DB/DT
1
146
DAY
292 365
Figure 8. Time-series of orthophosphate process-rates pre-
dicted by CLEANER.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Research supported in part by U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency Contract No. 68-03-2142; the
Eastern Deciduous Forest Biome, U. S. Interna-
tional Biological Program through the National
Science Foundation Interagency Agreement AG-
199, BMS69-01147A09 with the Energy Research
and Development Agency — Oak Ridge National
Laboratory; the Office of Water Resources Research
Contract No. 14-31-0001-3387; and the National
Science Foundation, Grant No. BMS75-14168.
REFERENCES
1. Bloomfield, J. A., 1972, Diatom Death Assemblages
as Indicators of Environmental Quality in Lake
George, New York: unpublished masters thesis,
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York, 86
pp.
2. Park, R. A., 1974, A Multivariate Analytical Strategy
for Classifying Paleoenvironments: Mathematical Geol-
ogy, Vol. 6, No. 4, p. 333-352.
2 -'
co _;
1 NANNOPHYTOPLANKTON
2 NET PHYTOPLANKTON
3 BLUE-GREEN ALGAE
7 NONPISCIVOROUS FISH
8 PISCIVOROUS FISH
•Xi
"aj
-^ - ^
•• \\ l!\\
i - , ',•*-•
r\ ^••X-':"'' .03L, I :\
\ \ fco-CD.-;s* t; I . \
rn / /\\"tt). 'U £3^
\ I
-------
10,
1.
.1
.01
.001
.1
.01
NET PHOTOPLANKTON
NANNOPHYTOPLANKTON
NONPISCIVOROUS FISH
PISCIVOROUS FISH
TWO YEARS
Figure 10. Simulation with temperature increased 5°
above normal.
10.-
1.
.1
.01
.001
NET
PHYTOPLANKTON
NANNO
PHYTOPLANKTON
BLUE-GREEN
ALGAE
ONE YEAR
Figure 11. Simulation with extinction coefficient of 0.4
(instead of 0.2 as is normal for Lake George);
dotted lines represent normal simulation re-
sults.
xt/y*
Figure 12. Structure of version of CLEANER adapted Tor Slapy Reservoir, Czechoslovakia.
125
-------
N
Figure 13. Computer-generated map of natural forests in
Lake George region; density of overprint is
proportional to percent forest cover in km2 cell.
3. Park, R. A., R. V. O'Neill, J. A. Bloomfield, H. H.
Shugart, Jr., R. S. Booth, J. F. Koonce, M. S. Adams,
L. S. Clesceri, E. M. Colon, E. H. Dettmann, R. A.
Goldstein, J. A. Hoopes, D. D. Huff, Samuel Katz,
J. F. Kitchell, R. C. Kohberger, E. J. LaRow, D. C.
McNaught, J. L. Perterson, Don Scavia, J. E. Titus,
P. R. Weiler, J. W. Wilkinson, and C. S. Zahorcak,
1974, A Generalized Model for Simulating Lake Eco-
systems: Simulation, August, p. 33-50.
4. Park, R. A., D. Scavia, and N. L. Clesceri, 1975,
CLEANER, The Lake George Model, In: C. S. Russell
(ed.) Ecological Modeling in an Environmental Man-
agement Framework: Resources For the Future, Inc.
5. Scavia, D., and R. A. Park, 1975, Documentation of
Selected Constructs and Parameter Values in the
Aquatic Model CLEANER: Ecological Modeling, Vol.
1, No. 3.
6. Park, R. A., and D. P. Carlisle, 1975, Case Study of
Wastewater Treatment at Lake George, New York,
ENVIRON.
PERCEPTION
PARAMETERS
NATURAL AND
HUMAN LOADINGS
FISHING
PRESSURE
TRANSIENT AND
I RESIDENT
POPULATION
LAND
WATRSHD
Figure 14. Coupling of simulation models for basin-wide
analysis.
In: D. L. Jameson (ed.) Secondary Impacts of Urban-
ization on Ecosystems Assessment Methodology: Socio-
economic Environmental Studies Series, U. S. Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency.
7. Carlisle, D. P., and R. A. Park, 1975, A Model for
Projecting Land Uses and Their Impacts on Ecosys-
tems, In: D. L. Jameson (ed.) Secondary Impacts of
Urbanization on Ecosystems Assessment Methodology:
Socioeconomic Environmental Studies Series, U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency.
8. Hett, J. M., 1971, Land Use Changes in Eastern
Tennessee and a Simulation Model which Describes
these Changes for Three Counties: Ecological Sciences
Division Publication No. 414, Oak Ridge National
Laboratory, International Biological Program Report
No. 71-8.
9. Shugart, H. H., T. R. Crow, J. M. Hett, 1973, Forest
Succession Models: A Rationale and Methodology for
Modeling Forest Succession Over Large Regions: For-
est Science, Vol. 19, No. 3, p. 203-212.
126
-------
AN ECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC MODEL OF THE USE OF NATURE
M. YA. LEMESHEV
THE INTERACTION OF MAN AND NATURE
It is well known that the basis for the existence
and development of human society is production.
Human needs are constantly growing. The satisfac-
tion of these needs gives rise to the necessity for a
continuous expansion of the scope of production.
Modern production is basically the active influence
of man on the natural environment, for the purpose
of transforming its diverse resources into consumer
goods. Production in the modern world has achieved
gigantic proportions and under the influence of the
developing scientific-technical revolution continues
to expand even further. Production processes now
involve not only traditional natural resources, such
as soil, water, timber, and minerals, but also re-
sources of the atmosphere, the world, oceans, and
outer space.
The achievements of man in "taming nature" in
our day are so great that the economic activity of
people begins to have a greater effect on the evolu-
tion of nature than the natural processes occurring
in it. As before, natural conditions have a more
important influence on human living conditions, yet
the increased productive forces of society give it
more and more opportunities to actively change and
form the natural environment. The need has arisen
to regard the use of nature as a phenomenon of the
interaction of man and nature.
THE CONCEPT OF THE USE OF NATURE
In this paper, by the "use of nature," we under-
stand both the direct and indirect influence of man
on the natural environment as a result of his activ-
ity. This influence may be and actually is both con-
scious and spontaneous, both purposeful and inci-
dental. We consider it necessary to especially empha-
size that here it is not only a matter of the use of
material natural resources (power, minerals, raw
materials, water, agricultural, etc.), but also a mat-
ter of the resources of nature, which meet an entire
complex of rational human needs, including their
healthy physical and mental life, rest, aesthetic
appreciation, creative inspiration and other needs
connected with the use of natural wealth. It should
be stipulated that here we have in mind precisely
the rational needs of people, which are caused by
physiological, mental and aesthetic demands, and
not some needs which arise from a fad, false social
prestige, and other regularities of development of
the so-called "society of consumption." The proc-
esses of the use of nature, on the one hand, should
to the greatest possible extent satisfy the rational
needs of people, and, on the other, preserve and
improve the natural environment as a source of
satisfaction of these needs. The achievement of
these goals requires the purposeful direction of the
processes of the use of nature. The purposeful direc-
tion of the processes of the use of nature assumes
the use of an entire complex of active measures of
a scientific, technical, socio-economic, educational
and legal nature. We consider unfounded the opin-
ions expressed by some specialists to the effect that
protection of the natural environment requires a
limitation of the rates of economic growth. It is
not a decrease in the growth of social production,
but its further development, the improvement of its
structure, equipment and technology with consid-
eration for ecological aspects that are creating a
real basis and the necessary conditions not only for
protection of the natural environment from pollu-
tion and degradation, but also for its planned
improvement.
THE INTERDEPENDENCE OF ECOLOGY
AND ECONOMICS
The exponential growth of population and indus-
trial production on our planet, given the fixed lim-
its of its biosphere, have at present caused a very
close interdependence between healthy socio-eco-
nomic life of society and the state of the natural
environment, i.e., the processes occurring in it. This
interdependence is manifested primarily in the fact
that the increase in the well-being of people
depends on the rates and efficiency of economic
development, while economic development itself, to
a decisive extent, depends on the scope and level
of intensity of the use of natural resources. In turn
the possibility of safeguarding the normal biological
conditions of the natural environment and the func-
127
-------
tioning of ecological systems in the biosphere depend
on how rationally and in how scientifically sub-
stantiated a manner the industrial influence of
society on nature occurs.
The economic, social, technological and biologi-
cal processes in the world surrounding man are now
so closely connected and interdependent that there
has arisen the need to regard modern production as
the functioning of a complex ecological-economic
system, but not to oppose the economic and natural
systems with each other.
THE CONCEPT OF AN ECOLOGICAL-
ECONOMIC SYSTEM
In this case, we define an ecological-economic
system to be the integration of economics and nature
— the interdependent and interconditional function-
ing of social production and the flow of natural proc-
esses in nature and the biosphere in particular.
Efficiently organized production has the capability
and should not only create material goods and ser-
vices, but also protect the natural environment from
its degradation, maintain and, in a number of
instances, restore the ecological balance in nature.
In our time the biosphere with its very valuable
natural resources is increasingly becoming a very
important element of the infra-structure of social
production and consumption, which needs its repro-
duction as does all other (material and nonmaterial)
wealth in the system of social production. Analysis
of this global process which is occurring in the mod-
ern world gave the Soviet scholar, Academician N.
P. Fedorenko, grounds to express the idea that we
are witnesses to the formation of a new fifth sphere
of social production — the sphere of reproduction
of natural resources.*
The efficient use of nature under present condi-
tions requires above all an increase hi the level of
the ecological thinking of specialists and workers
of all spheres of activity. The recognition by scien-
tific and practical workers of all areas of the
national economy of the need for strict ecological
limitations in all technological processes should
gradually result in a biologization of social produc-
tion. In practice this recognition should be reflected
in the scientific prediction not only of the imme-
diate, but also of the long-range consequences of
all actions undertaken to transform nature and, in
particular, to develop modern industrial production.
The tasks, apparently, consist not in not using nat-
ural resources or curtailing their use, which in prac-
tice is hardly realistic, but rather in organizing this
*See Ekonomicheskiye problemy prirodopol'zovaniya
[Economic problems of the use of Nature], Moscow,
Nauka, 1973, p. 10.
use on a scientifically substantiated and rational
basis, with maximum economic and social efficiency.
The same goes for pollution of the natural environ-
ment. Modern production in any form will
obviously have wastes for a long time to come, and
consequently will, to some extent, pollute nature.
Therefore, the problem consists in the scientific
determination of the permissible level of pollution.
It is known that natural systems have the ability to
cleanse themselves, to restore themselves, to change
and develop. In order to organize the scientifically
substantiated use of natural resources, it is above
all necessary to establish the permissible level of
pollution of the natural environment and, following
that, to use only that production equipment that
would ensure growth in products needed by society
and, at the same time, would not exceed the pollu-
tion level beyond which natural systems are unable
to "process" production wastes, lose the ability to
restore themselves, are degraded and collapse.
In our time, it is necessary to decisively reject
the view of nature according to which it is an
"ominous force" against which man must conduct
a fierce and tireless campaign. Man and nature are
not two opposing forces, but a unified ecological-
anthropogenic system, on whose harmonious devel-
opment the very existence of human society decid-
edly depends. The cleanness of the natural environ-
ment, the protection of the equilibrium of ecological
systems, the rational use and reproduction of nat-
ural resources today are becoming the most impor-
tant demands on the development of all production.
On the basis of this it can be asserted that the
successful direction of social development and, in
particular, of modern social production presumes
the integration of methods of directing economic
development with methods of directing natural bio-
logical processes into a single methodology for di-
recting the ecological-economic system.
THE MAIN TRENDS OF THE
RATIONALIZATION OF THE USE OF
NATURE
The present level of development of production
forces and present notions of the interrelation of
the development of nature and society make it nec-
essary to overcome the historically established,
purely naturalistic and technical approach to the
processes of the use of nature. At present, when
evaluating the entire production activity of society,
the ecological-economic aspect should assume pri-
mary importance.
The use of nature, as a global process of the
functioning of the ecological-economic system,
should be understood as a purposeful socio-eco-
nomic activity of society, which ensures:
128
-------
—the increasingly complete satisfaction of the
growing needs of all members of society
through the all-around intensification of the
use of natural resources;
—the protection and extensive multiplication (or
improvement of the quality) of natural
resources in the interests of future generations
of people;
—the protection of the equilibrium between
industrial development and the biological sta-
bility of man's natural environment, which
guarantees the possibility of the development
of civilization and of life itself on earth.
In order to successfully resolve these tasks, it is
necessary to clearly understand of what the basic
cause of the negative influence of production on
nature consists.
WHAT IS THE MAIN CAUSE OF THE
DETERIORATION OF THE NATURAL
ENVIRONMENT?
The intensification of the negative effects of
industrial development on the natural environment,
as a rule, is connected with the rapid increase in
the scope of this production and with expansion of
the sphere of man's interference in the natural proc-
esses occuring in the biosphere. However, a more
detailed analysis of the cause of the negative influ-
ence of man-made activity on natural systems shows
that these negative effects are conditioned by the
qualitative differences of the circulation of a sub-
stance in artificial (economic) systems as compared
with natural (ecological) systems. In ecological
systems the circulation of a substance is more
closed. Here the plant mass, being transformed from
stage to stage in trophic chains at the end of the
cycle again becomes suitable for feeding plants. In
economic systems, however, only an insignificant
part of a natural substance is utilized, while the
majority of it is returned to the biosphere, having
acquired in the production process new, as a rule
dangerous, physico-chemical properties. It is this
unutilizable part of a substance that creates the
stress on nature. Consequently, the main cause of
the negative effect of production on the natural
environment consists not so much in the scope of
production as in the nature of its technologies.
TWO WAYS TO PROTECT THE NATURAL
ENVIRONMENT FROM POLLUTION
We can single out two fundamentally different
ways to combat pollution.
The first has at present already become quite
widespread. This is the treatment of the harmful
emissions of industrial and agricultural enterprises
into the environment. Further promotion along this
line is not very effective, since it does not make it
possible to solve the problem fundamentally. This
is explained first of all by the fact that with the aid
of treatment technology one does not always suc-
ceed in completely ceasing the entrance of harmful
substances into the biosphere. In the treatment pro-
cess the conversion of one type of pollution into
another often occurs. For example, the replacement
of dry dust collectors with wet ones increases the
degree of purification of the atmosphere, but simul-
taneously increases the pollution of waters. The
construction of reliable treatment technology is very
expensive. Moreover, it occupies more land areas,
creates the new problem of disposing of solid
wastes and sediments from treatment systems, and
so forth. All this sharply decreases the effectiveness
of this means of preventing pollution.
The second way is more radical and at the same
time economical. The point of it is to develop tech-
nological production processes which would simulate
natural processes to the maximum possible degree.
It is a matter of creating nonwaste-producing (in
the initial stage low-waste producing) production
technologies which would make it possible to utilize
all (in the initial stage many) substances harmful
to the biosphere. At present the second way has not
yet been widely developed. The main reason for
this situation is the absence of a calculation of the
economic damage from environmental pollution and
as a result this means is not able to compete with
the first one. The preliminary evaluations we have
made provide grounds to think that the calculation
of the damage from environmental pollution makes
the second way more economical and consequently
preferable.
EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES
At present an increasingly greater number of
specialists, including economists and engineers,
understand that the stability and reliability of nat-
ural systems have their limits and therefore there
must be a determination of the permissible bounds
of the effect of modern production on the biosphere.
However, economics also has, alas, only a limited
"reserve of stability." It develops according to its
own laws and cannot bear any demands from ecol-
ogy. These demands at times are so severe that their
observance leads to the unprofitability of produc-
tion, which is, as a rule, equivalent to its curtail-
ment.
Under these conditions there must be a search
for compromise solutions which would make it pos-
sible to protect the natural systems and develop pro-
duction. In other words, there must be a search for
the economic optimum of pollution and level of
purification of the natural environment.
129
-------
In modern economics the more complete utiliza-
tion of basic raw materials is recognized as efficient
only if the expenditures for additionally obtainable
output (SJ are less than the expenditures for
obtaining an analogous output in rival technological
processes (S2) (when using other types of raw
materials), i.e., the condition of the feasibility of
raising the completeness of utilization is the inequal-
ity
(S2-S1)>0. (1)
Since relatively few utilizable materials are usually
contained in production wastes, nonwaste-producing
technologies often seem economically less efficient
than technologies oriented on the use of more con-
centrated raw material sources. Thus, the colossal
resources of sulfur dioxide in gaseous emissions of
thermoelectric power stations are at present not
utilized, since its low concentration makes these
gases incapable of competing with other sulfur-
containing raw materials. Morover, the determina-
tion of the economic effectiveness of nonwaste-pro-
ducing technologies according to expression (1)
under present conditions should be recognized as
unacceptable. In calculations of this time it is abso-
lutely necessary to consider the extent of the eco-
nomic damage from environmental pollution in
comparable alternatives, i.e., the condition of the
feasibility of raising the completeness of the utiliza-
tion should not be the inequality (1), but the
inequality
(S2-S1+AR)>0 (2)
(AR is the decrease in economic damage from
environmental pollution when using nonwaste-pro-
ducing technology).
It is easy to notice that calculation of the damage
from environmental pollution results in a significant
expansion of the bounds of the economic feasibility
of using nonwaste-producing technologies. Now non-
waste-producing technology is economically effi-
cient even when the cost of the obtained output
according to this technology is higher than in rival
alternatives. It is necessary only that the "overex-
penditure" of production costs and capital invest-
ments be less than the savings from the decrease in
the damages from environmental pollution.
Calculation of the economic damage from envi-
ronmental pollution by production wastes inevitably
entails an examination of the customary concepts
of "useful" and "harmful" components of the
material-energy flow in modern production. Since
the utilization, for example, of ash and sulfur, which
are contained in fuel coal, is economically advan-
tageous, there are no grounds to consider these sub-
stances only as "harmful admixtures" and appraise
the usefulness, for example, of extractable coal in
all instances in inverse proportion to its content of
ash and sulfur.
For economic substantiation of measures to pre-
vent economic damage from pollution and losses of
natural resources the method of development of an
intersectorial balance of production and distribution
of the gross national product (of the input-output
type) can be used. In calculating according to such
a balance with the given structure, given volumes of
finished products of the sectors, as well as the given
volumes of permissible emissions of pollutants, it
is possible to obtain the following indicators which
characterize the development of production and
state of the natural environment:
—volumes of gross product output and volumes
of capturable pollutants connected with them;
—sectorial pattern of pollution of the natural
environment;
—proportion of captured valuable products in
the meeting of the overall need of the country
for these products.
With the aid of the alternative calculations by
the intersectorial balance method, it is possible to
study: a) the correlation of the volume of the
national product and total expenditures for protect-
ing the environment with the given permissible emis-
sions; b) the change in the pattern and volume of
the gross product, depending on the change in per-
missible emissions; c) the change in the pattern of
expenditures of sectors for the elimination of pollu-
tion, given a change in permissible emissions; d) the
change at the same time in the total volume of
expenditures on the elimination of pollutants. Such
calculations can be made given the following basic
data, which must be prepared on a sectorial basis:
1) the emission of a particular polluting substance
per unit of product output in each polluter-sector; 2)
expenditures of sectors producing treatment tech-
nology for capturing a unit of a specific pollutant;
3) permissible emissions for specific pollutants on
a national scale.
By having this information available, decision-
making units may, on an economically substantiated
basis, implement a policy of developing and incor-
porating low-waste producing and nonwaste-produc-
ing technologies with due regard for the demands
of ecology and the available labor resources and
capital investments.
ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF THE DAMAGE
FROM POLLUTION
The practice of many industrially developed
nations shows that the economic damage from pol-
lution of the natural environment amounts to bil-
lions of dollars a year. Its correct calculation will
130
-------
make it possible to work out on a more substan-
tiated basis the strategy of development and incor-
poration of "clean" industrial technology both within
individual countries and within international cooper-
ation on problems of protecting the natural environ-
ment from pollution. For these purposes it is nec-
essary above all to discover the most substantial
types of damage done by environmental pollution.
The list of them is obviously very large.
For example, an increase in the content of dan-
gerous substances in the atmosphere causes:
—accelerated corrosion of fixed capital and
materials;
—a decline in the yield of agricultural crops and
a loss of their nutritional value;
—deterioration of the state of available timber,
a lowering of the productivity of timber and
quality of wood;
—an increase in human morbidity and, conse-
quently, a loss of work time.
This list could obviously be considerably length-
ened. Analogous types of economic damage are
caused by pollution of water and soil resources.
Moreover, environmental pollution causes psycho-
logical, aesthetic and other types of damage, which
are more difficult, and at times even impossible, to
express in economic terms, but they should be con-
sidered.
The determination of the economic damage done
by each individual type of pollution will make it
possible to establish specific disincentives (payments
for polluting) with respect to enterprises permitting
this pollution. These assets should be concentrated
in the hands of the government or regional admin-
istrative organs and be expended for putting into
operation projects for the protection of the natural
environment and, in particular, for establishing
incentive subsidies to enterprises introducing new
equipment that makes possible the complete utiliza-
tion or elimination of harmful wastes and which do
not allow pollution of the natural environment.
Preliminary calculations indicate that with activ-
ity organized on a planned basis within a single
country or a group of countries, environmental pro-
tection is justified economically and can become a
highly efficient sphere of application of social labor,
since the savings from the elimination of the dam-
age caused by pollution are higher than the expen-
ditures necessary to prevent pollution.
AN ECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC MODEL FOR
DIRECTING THE PROCESSES OF THE
USE OF NATURE
A Basic Scheme
Soviet economists and other specialists have been
occupied for a long time with elaboration of the
problems of the optimal utilization of the resources
of the natural environment. Thus far some results
have been obtained which may be of interest to
specialists of other countries, and in particular to
the U. S. specialists who are participating in the
Soviet-American program of environmental pro-
tection.
In particular, the author of this report has devel-
oped an ecological-economic model of the use of
nature (see Figure 1). The point of this model is
that in it, and simultaneously in the intercoordina-
tion, are reflected the processes occurring both in
the economic and in the ecological subsystems. This
makes it possible to make decisions ensuring that
the maximum economic output is obtained in pro-
duction and that the destructive effect of industrial
technology on nature is not permitted.
Socialist society with its humanitarian goals can-
not agree to a curtailment of production. Moreover,
as a rule, it cannot agree either to a decrease in the
growth rate of this production, since this would
automatically result in a decline in the growth rate
of the well-being of the people. Society likewise
cannot agree to a reduction in the economic effect
of production.
On the other hand, society cannot permit the
achievement of production growth and the increase
of its economic effect through the depletion of
natural resources and the pollution of the natural
environment, since not only production develop-
ment, but also the existence of life itself on earth
depend on their status.
Under these conditions only one path remains
possible—the path of joint optimization of the eco-
nomic and ecological subsystems, or more specifi-
cally, insurance of the growth of social production
and the increase of its efficiency given rigid ecolog-
ical limitations that will not permit the ruin and
degradation of the natural environment. The stipu-
lation should be made that in specific cases (in
individual regions or industrial centers) it will be
necessary to limit ourselves to maintaining the
achieved level of production and its economic effec-
tiveness with the purpose of protecting the ecosys-
tems experiencing the negative influence of this pro-
duction.
The above-offered basic model of the direction
of the ecological-economic system makes it possible
to choose the optimum solution both from the point
of view of economics and from the point of view
of ecology. Into the input of the model are fed a
large number of different means (alternatives) of
the utilization of natural resources. As a result of
the interaction of social production and natural sys-
tems (processes) at the output we have results of
131
-------
Means of
Uti lization
of Natural
Resources
Functioning
of the Bio-
economic
System
FEEDBACK
Economic Growth
Stabilization
Economic
Parameters
Ecological
Parameters
Development of
Ecological System
Protection of
Ecological System
Figure 1. Basic model of the direction of the ecological-economic system.
an economic and ecological nature. Any means
(alternative), examined by the project, of the utili-
zation of natural resources, no matter how high a
level of economic growth it promises, should not
be included in the plan if the economic effect is
accompanied by the degradation or ruin, the collapse
of the ecological systems or important parts of
them. Likewise not to be included in the plan is the
means (alternative) of the utilization of natural
resources which ensures the protection or even
development of the natural ecological systems, but
entails a curtailment of production or a decline in
its economic effectiveness.
Public ownership of the means of production in
our country, the concern of the socialist government
for the welfare of all members of society, high-
quality social production, the planned nature of its
development make it possible to organize the pur-
poseful direction of economic development with
due consideration for the ecological aspects.
132
-------
MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION MODEL OF THE LAKE BAYKAL
REGION AS A METHOD FOR COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS,
LONG-TERM FORECASTING AND DETERMINATION OF THE
PERMISSIBLE YIELDS OF THE INFLUENCE OF NATIONAL
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY AND THE
STATE OF ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
YU. A. IZRAEL, YU. A. ANOKHIN, A. KH. OSTROMOGIL'SKIY,
F. M. SEMEVSKIY, S. M. SEMENOV, and V. N. KOLESNIKOVA
INTRODUCTION
The proposed model is the realization of the pro-
gram of research, which we described at the first
Soviet-American symposium on the comprehensive
analysis of the environment [1]. Our purpose in
studying the Lake Baykal region is the develop-
ment of a method for the long-term forecasting of
the change in the parameters of the state of the
environment — indicators of the influence of human
activity — given different variants of the develop-
ment of the national economy in this region.
Without dwelling here on the methodological
question of developing criteria of the general eval-
uation of the influence of man's activity on the
environment, let us note that this work is now being
conducted by many organizations, in particular the
UN European Economic Council and SCOPE of
the International Union of Scientific Societies [2].
Devoted to the methodological questions of deter-
mining the permissible yield of pollution on the
environment was work [3], which was reported at
the first Soviet-American symposium.
In this report we will concentrate our attention
on specific problems of the over-all, comprehensive
analysis of man-made pollution of the environment
on a regional scale.
As we noted earlier [1], the problem of pollution
should be treated on a sufficiently broad basis,
within the framework of the general tasks of the
rational use of natural resources. Here, however,
it is necessary to act with moderation, for a too
extensive and general approach, in particular in the
initial stage, threatens the constructiveness and
practical usefulness of the results. Following the
example of [4,5], we will examine pollution — the
byproduct of normal economic activity — within
the sufficiently broad and, at the same time, quite
specific, quantitative framework of the system of
the "intersectorial" balance.
Although we did not use the term "comprehen-
sive analysis," below we will discuss basically a
synthesis, a model approach to the solution of the
problem.
This is connected with the fact that the very
complex system in question — economic activity
5=1 environment — does not yield to the classical
scheme of analysis, which is understood as the dis-
memberment of the whole into smaller parts and
their study in isolation. In order to study such com-
plex dynamic, nonlinear and stochastic systems,
which are described by a large number of variables
(having feedbacks, temporary setbacks and even
breakdowns), a methodology has been developed,
the basis of which is systems analysis and mathe-
matical simulation modeling [6-8]. However, a ser-
ious defect of simulation modeling is its "complex-
ity" — as a rule, a large, boundless number of
variants of the types of connections and parameters
("the curse of multidimensionality"). Evidently, a
reflection of this circumstance is the well-known
statement of the representatives of the school of J.
Forrester and D. Meadows: "It is easy to create a
complex model, and hard to create a simple one,"
[9].
In our opinion, a significant simplification of the
methodology of simulation modeling that is espe-
cially evident when analyzing pollution is the appli-
cation of the mass balance approach in the spirit
of W. Leont'yev [4]. Thus, in short, our approach
can be characterized as the incorporation of the
method of "intersectorial" balance in the method-
ology of mathematical simulation modeling. It is
a multidisciplinary quantitative method that is
aimed at the study of complex systems without
133
-------
complete knowledge of them, at the prediction of
their behavior under changing conditions and in the
final analysis is oriented toward the use of decision-
making units for management (in some sense the
optimal management) of such systems (in partic-
ular, the system: economic activity ^ environment).
In this sense we will discuss below the "compre-
hensive synthesis" of the problem of environmen-
tal pollution on a regional scale.
GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE MODEL
The mapping of the Lake Baykal region, see
Figure 1, as a relatively closed economic-ecological
system, was carried out by us [1] on a basin-wide,
hydrological basis.
The numerous studies on ecology, economics,
hydrology, hydrochemistry, geophysics and meteo-
rology, which are being conducted on the territory
of this region, provide information which in prin-
ciple makes it possible to synthesize the economic-
ecological model of the region as a whole. How-
ever, on the way to the complete realization of this
program, it was discovered that there are signifi-
cant difficulties connected with the fact that the
studies mentioned are being conducted unevenly,
in the sense that even though good information is
being refined, at the same time some processes
have gone almost unstudied. These circumstances
will be clarified in the course of describing the
model.
The proposed model is the first version of the
model of the Lake Baykal region, not all the parts
(modules) of which have been developed to the
same extent. However, it is important to note here
that, in itself, the fact of the discovery of holes in
our understanding of the region as an economic-
ecological system became possible as a result of
constructing this model, which thus made it pos-
sible to refine the program of subsequent studies of
the region. Moreover, the modular principle we
have adopted for constructing the model, when this
model consists of sectors and subsectors that are
relatively independent and are simply being con-
nected together, makes it possible to alter the indi-
vidual parts of the model without significant alter-
ations to the other parts.
The prediction of possible changes in the ecologi-
cal systems (biogeocenoses) of the region under the
influence of economic activity, and the use of this
prediction by decision-making units require:
—the breakdown of the region into territorial
subsystems relatively uniform in physico-geo-
graphical conditions (which is responsible for
the relative similarity in the ecological sys-
tems);
—the construction of models of economic activity
and its consequences for the environment (for
example, pollution) for each of these territo-
rial subsystems and the region as a whole;
—an evaluation of the changes in the environ-
ment under the influence of economic activity.
Mongol
People
Republi
Figure 1. Lake Baykal region.
134
-------
The breakdown of the region was also previously
described by us [1], see Figure 1. The solution of
the second problem at present is being concluded,
and below we will cite the description of a part of
the problem, namely the model of the distribution
of pollution in the environment (atmosphere, hydro-
sphere, biota). The solution of this problem also
has an independent significance, since it makes it
possible to make a preliminary comparison of dif-
ferent variants of the development of the economy
according to the damage caused by environmental
pollution.. Finally, the methods of ecological-eco-
nomic evaluation of man-made pollution are being
developed, and some reflections on this part of the
problem will also be cited below.
A time horizon equal to 20 years was selected
for the model. Such a choice makes it possible to
reveal the important long-term aspects of the inter-
action of economic activity and the environment.
On a time scale, it can be considered as interme-
diate between short-term, strictly inertial, yet quite
reliable prognostic schemes and very long-term
schemes (in the spirit of Forrester-Mesarovich),
which include significant reconstructions of the
socioeconomic structures. Obviously, 10 to 20
years is a period, during which the economic sys-
tem, while undergoing changes, still does not entire-
ly lose its "inertia," and therefore the model can
be considered relatively reliable.
It is appropriate to make the following remarks.
Without going into the strict logical substantiation
of the problem of the long-term prediction of such
a complex system, such as is the system: economic
activity ^ environment [10,11], we should never-
theless have a clear understanding of two circum-
stances.
First, it is necessary that the prediction not con-
tradict the requirement of verifiability [11]. Other-
wise the prediction may degenerate into purely
deductive constructions that are little connected
with the analysis of truly observable phenomena.*
Second, the problem of long-range forecasting
should be examined together with the tasks of long-
term planning (under the conditions of a planned
economy this is especially evident). Otherwise it is
possible to fall into an incongruous closed circle,
having begun to predict not that which will occur
in specific proposals, but that which will be resolved
by planning organs.
When constructing the model and describing the
functional interconnections between its parts (mod-
ules) we use the methods and means of "system
* Sharp criticism of this direction in econometric model-
ing (i.e., in the area close to our set of questions) was
given by W. Leont'yev [13].
dynamics" and the DYNAMO modeling language
[12].
However, this method, while having significant
merits (precision of methodological premises, abso-
lute clarity of language, a number of advantages of
a calculation nature), unfortunately is poorly suited
for the analysis of diffuse systems. It assumes that
the distribution of the interacting objects in the
examined area of space is uniform, i.e., the models
contain derivatives for time, but do not contain
derivatives for space. This occurs if the "concen-
trations" of the interacting objects (for example,
the concentration of pollution in water and the den-
sity of the distribution of water organisms in the
examined area in the entire region or its subregions)
are quite rapidly equalized through diffusion or dis-
placement. Such models, as is known, are called
point models (since they can be attributed to any
of the points of the area).
In our case it is necessary to consider the spatial
effects and spatial dis-aggregation of the variable;
therefore, in addition to derivatives for time, deriv-
atives for space appear, and the model reduces to
a system of equations in partial derivatives. Such
models are called diffuse.
Since the study of diffuse systems is connected
with great mathematical and computational diffi-
culties, a reliable result can be obtained only in
those instances when the behavior of the appropriate
point models is well known.
Therefore, we use the following method. At first
the point models are studied using the methods of
system dynamics. Then we determine the dimensions
of the area in which the system can be considered
uniform. Then the interaction between different
uniform areas is studied.
In essence, the breakdown of the region into sub-
regions is a rough (to a zero approximation) solu-
tion of this task. The specification of this break-
down would be the next approximation.
As was indicated above, within system dynamics
modeling we use the mass balance approach [4,5].
In its more complicated form (the multiregional
and dynamic version) its method makes it possible
to explain the spatial distribution of the production
and consumption of various commodities, includ-
ing the "production" and "consumption" of pollu-
tion. Ordinary economic statistics deals with com-
modities having market values. Therefore the pro-
duction and consumption of lead in industry, for
example, are a part of the ordinary statistics, while
the same lead and carbon monoxide, which are
"produced" by motor vehicles and "consumed" in
particular by people, are not. These questions face
us squarely when we move from explaining pollu-
135
-------
tion to trying to prevent it. The calculations by the
model of the "intersectorial" balance make it pos-
sible to evaluate the different methods of combat-
ting pollution.
STRUCTURE OF THE MODEL
Serving as the basis of the model are the follow-
ing inventory and functional modules:
Inventory of the sources of pollution of the
atmosphere, streams of water, the soil within the
framework of the model of the intersectorial bal-
ance. The reduction of the inventory to a "stan-
dard" form.
Module of the diffusion of pollution in the atmos-
phere. According to data on sources, and meteo-
rological data on the wind rose and precipitation, a
calculation of the space-time distribution of pollu-
tants in the atmosphere and an evaluation of the
rate of movement of pollutants from the atmos-
phere into the underlying surface, and a space-time
picture of the density of the distribution of pollu-
tants on the land are calculated.
Module of the movement of pollution from the
land into neighboring streams and the atmosphere;
absorption by the biota is possible. According to
data on the space-time distribution of pollutants on
the land their transfer to water flows in calculated,
and the reverse transition into the atmosphere and
the absorption by dry-land biogeocenoses are also
evaluated.
The transfer of pollution by water flows. By
having information on the sources of emissions into
streams and knowing about the entrance of pollu-
tion into streams from corresponding sectors of the
catchment, we calculate the space-time picture of
the distribution of pollutants in rivers and evaluate
the entrance of pollution into Lake Baykal.
Evaluation of the zones of "influence" of major
sources and the structure of the fields of pollution
of Lake Baykal. Having data on the primary sources
and data on the entrance of pollution with rivers,
as well as information on the transfer of pollutants
from the atmosphere into the surface of Lake Bay-
kal, we evaluate the zones of influence of major
sources and calculate the picture of the space-time
picture of the fields of pollution.
Prediction of the state of natural ecosystems.
According to the results of the calculation of the
distribution pollution in the atmosphere, water and
soil, we evaluate and predict the possible changes
in the functioning of dry-land and water biogeo-
cenoses.
Module of the evaluation of the damage from
pollution and optimization of the use of the resources
of the ecosystems of the region.
We examine four basic quantitative components
of the vector of damage:
—damage to fishing;
—pollution of large masses of water (in this
case the water is regarded as an industrial
resource);
—recreational damage, connected with the losses
or decrease in incomes from the activity of
sanatoriums, holiday hotels, etc.;
—decline in the variety of present species.
This last module is, at present, the least developed.
We assume that the optimum policy of the exploita-
tion of the resources of the region can be found as
the optimum management of some function of the
global "utility" of the region; some reflections on
this notion will be given below.
As was indicated above, we studied point models
using the methods of system dynamics. As an
example there is cited, in Figure 2, a generalized
scheme of the spread of pollution in the Lake Bay-
kal region (we used the symbols of the method of
system dynamics [10]. Let us explain the figure.
The dynamics of the pollution of the atmosphere
are defined by the intra-regional sources, the trans-
fer from neighboring regions and global transfer,
as well as by the processes of transfer, the physico-
chemical processes of the conversions and fallout
of pollution from the atmosphere ("self-purifica-
tion" of the atmosphere).
Precipitation onto the underlying surface leads
to its pollution (the areas of river catchments, the
soil and, indirectly, the water of the lake are pollu-
ted). The life span of pollutants in the atmosphere
depends, evidently, on a large number of factors,
among which the amount of rainfall, which deter-
mines the "wet" movement of pollution, is one of
the most important.
Some pollutants (for example, mercury) may
evaporate from the underlying surface into the
atmosphere.
The washing of fallen pollution into streams
depends on the nature of the underlying surface.
We will differentiate the following types of under-
lying surfaces:
—the lake surface,
—forest tracts,
—meadows,
—plowland,
—eroded lands, and
—urbanized territories.
The nature of the underlying surface (the time
horizon of the model is 20 years!) may change as
a result of economic activity (lumbering or tree
planting, the plowing of land, urbanization, etc.).
136
-------
Anthropogenic
pollution of the underlying
surface.
Entrance from
k /territory
, of
Nature
of_underlying
"surfaces
Pollution
of the
Pollution of the
underlying X
^Evaporation
VI I I will
nderlying
vsurfaces
Precipitation
| onto
underlying
surfaces
Life span of
precipitation
pollutants m the
Transfer of
pollutants to
Lake |
Baykal
pollution
V ^|\by the wind/
Ecosystem
of Lake Baykal
Atmospheric
transfer
from
neighboring
regions
Emissions
into I
Lake Baykal
Figure 2. Generalized scheme of the spread of pollution in the Lake Baykal region.
The pollution that entered the streams is carried
into the lake, undergoing, depending on the type
of pollution, different types of processes of transfor-
mations (the "self-purification" of streams). In
Lake Baykal there are formed the space-time fields
of the pollution, which interact with the biota.
Let us proceed to a description of the individual
modules.
Inventory of the Sources of Pollution
For the first version of the model we have suffi-
cient information on the level and structure of eco-
nomic activity in the region and, in particular, on
the magnitude of the basic emissions of pollutants
into the environment. Therefore it was no problem
to take an inventory of these emissions for the
region as a whole and for its individual subregions
(where this made sense).
More complicated was the task of reducing this
inventory to some "standard," yet at the same time
sufficiently flexible form (for convenience of the
examination of alternative variants). It is likewise
necessary that this form of inventory be simply con-
nected with the system of equations of the intersec-
torial balance of the flows of substances; with the
multiregional dynamic system of the Leont'yev type.
In the long-range future not only the level, but also
the type (the matrix of "technological" coefficients)
of the economic activity of the dynamic region of
Lake Baykal cannot but change, therefore a reliable
system for the long-range prediction of the emission
of pollution into the atmosphere is possible only on
the basis of the system of equations of the intersec-
torial balance.
The development of the format of the inventory
is currently being completed and includes the break-
down of pollution according to:
—the types of sources (point, area, stationary,
etc.);
—the types of corresponding economic activity
(industry, agriculture, service sector, etc.);
—combined categories of pollution (sulfur com-
pounds, heavy metals, pesticides, easily decom-
posed organic compounds, hard-to-decompose
organic compounds, etc.);
—individual pollutants (sulfur dioxide, mercury,
insecticides, nitrogen etc.);
137
-------
—levels of toxicity;
—basic spheres of diffusion (atmosphere, hydro-
sphere, soil, biota).
The connection with the system of intersectorial
mass balance is achieved in the following manner.
The total amount of the given pollutant, which is
emitted during the given period of time in the given
subregion, is calculated as the linear combination
of the outputs of "clean" branches in this subregion,
which in turn are calculated according to the model
of the intersectorial mass balance [14].
The Spread of Pollution in the Atmosphere
This module establishes the quantitative connec-
tion between the sources of pollution and the field
of precipitation.
Most works devoted to the study of the spread
and fall-out of pollutants usually examine the trans-
fer in a single direction under a selected synoptic
situation with a scope of hours-days. Such an
approach is justified when studying cases of the
acute effect of atmospheric pollutants on the envir-
onment (especially on local scales). On regional
scales the effect is most likely not acute but chronic,
additive, and another approach is needed. This type
of approach for regional scales is described, for
example, in works [15,16].
Let us adopt the following symbols:
—C(x71) is the amount of pollutant in the atmo-
sphere per unit of area of the surface at point
x = (x1,x2) at time t.
—TIB is the life span of the pollutant in question
in the atmosphere.
If the field of velocities of transfer v(x, t) is
known, then the dynamics of the magnitude C(x, t)
will be described by the equation:
(1)
where Q(x, t) is the intensity of the sources of pol-
lution at time t.
The use of equation (1) is complicated, since there
is often no information on the basis of which it
would be possible to reproduce accurately enough
the field v(x, t). Therefore we used another, rougher
model as well.
We will break the entire region down into suffi-
ciently small areas, to which we attach the numbers
(i= 1, 2, . . ., N) and designate by Py the probabil-
ity that the pollution in the area over the time A
will be transferred to area j. If we designate by
Ci (tk) the amount of pollution over area i at time
tk, we obtain the relationship:
u Q(tk) + Qj (tk)A = C,(tk+1)
(2)
where Qj(tk) is the intensity of the sources of pollu-
tion in area j and time tk.
The field of precipitations is simply calculated
according to the magnitude Q(t) by the formula:
Q1(t)=C1(t)/Tls (3)
Successive integrations according to equations (2)
and (3) give the dynamics of the field of precipita-
tions.
The computation of the probabilities Py, which are
needed in order to make the calculation, is carried
out on the basis of the available information about
the strength and recurrence of the direction of the
winds:
where f(wlj,rlj/A) is the recurrence of the winds in
the direction wy (from area i to area j and with a
force of ry/A), where ry is the distance between
these areas.
The Transfer of Pollution from the Underlying
Surface to Streams
Since the region is broken down into subregions,
it can be thought that the run-off of pollution from
the underlying land surface of each subregion occurs
only into the corresponding stream. The dynamics
of this process would be described in the following
manner:
Let Z be the amount of pollution washed into the
corresponding stream, then y and Z are interrelated
by the equations:
Z = C/TlsSreg-y (4)
= Z/TUB
(5)
where C/Tu, is the intensity of the precipitation of
the pollutant from the atmosphere; Tus is the time
that the pollutant is in the underlying surface, which
depends on the nature of the underlying surface and
the amount of falling precipitation.
Equations (4) and (5) describe the dynamics of
the pollution of the underlying surface during the
autumn and summer seasons. During the winter and
spring seasons the dynamics are different: there are
no wash-offs in winter, i.e., y = 0, while the pollu-
tion precipitated in winter and spring is washed off
completely during the spring thaw.
We realize that the model (equations 4 and 5),
which was described above, is very rough, but the
selection of the model corresponds to the nature of
138
-------
the available information, since the processes being
modeled here have been poorly studied.
The Carrying of Pollution by Streams
This module describes the dynamics of the flow
of pollution into Lake Baykal, depending on the
intensity of their entrance into streams and with due
consideration for the processes of self-purification.
The equation is as follows:
(6)
where Q is the amount of pollution per unit of
length of the stream; v is the velocity of the current;
T£ is the life span of the pollutant in the water, a
constant that takes into consideration the action
of various processes of self-purification; and Asew
is the intensity of the emission of sewage.
The intensity of the entrance of the pollutant into
the lake can be calculated as follows:
q = Qm/Vm,
where Qm and vm are the values of Q and v at the
mouth of the stream.
Evaluation .of the Zones of "Influence" of Major
Sources and the Structure of the Fields of
Pollution of Lake Baykal
On the basis of specially organized tracer exper-
iments, which were conducted during the last few
years, for determining the zones of the spread of
man-made pollution in the region of Lake Baykal
and for studying the balance of polluting substances,
information was obtained which makes it possible
to calculate the space-time picture of the actual
zones of "influence" of the isolated sources and to
obtain the fields of the concentrations of pollutants
in Lake Baykal [17].
Prediction of the State of Natural Ecosystems
At the basis of the method of prediction we have
placed the principle of the optimality of the speci-
men, which was first formulated by Rashevsky [18].
The history of the development of this concept goes
back to Darwin. Without dwelling on this history
of the question, let us cite the essential literature
[19].
We use the mentioned principle of optimality in
a somewhat modified form, since it is not practi-
cally possible to reveal and consider the ecological
characteristics of an entire set of species. Therefore,
for the sake of a constructive approach we single
out in the ecosystem the "basic niches," and the
systems of species occupying these "basic niches"
are regarded as a "generalized species." Then from
the principle of optimality, through the use of the
biological principle of the interdependence of the
characteristics of associations (the Matthew-Kermak
principle), we obtain the system of relations, through
whose resolution we find the parameters of the eco-
logical system, depending on the man-made influ-
ences.
As an important additional instrument of the
study of the ecological system most important to us
— the ecosystem of Lake Baykal proper — we
developed a mathematical simulation model of the
pelagic zone of Lake Baykal, which is inhabited by
the majority of endemic plants and animals and in
which are produced the majority of products that
play a determining role in the circulation of a sub-
stance and energy in the lake.
The model describes the dynamics of the main
trophic levels of the ecosystem and is a system com-
posed of ten ordinary differential equations. As an
illustration, Figure 3, shows the DYNAMO-diagram
of this model, while Table 1 gives the values of some
of the parameters being used. The model was stud-
ied for stability through variation of the parameters
within reasonable limits, and the obtained results
were satisfactory: the model is sufficiently stable
and can be used under real conditions, when the
numerical values of some parameters are not well
enough known. In the preliminary calculations the
intensity of the man-made discharge, into Lake
TABLE 1. PARAMETERS OF THE MODEL
OF THE ECOSYSTEM OF THE PELAGIC ZONE
OF LAKE BAYKAL
Parameter
Numerical
Value
Coefficient of the expenditures 0.1
on the exchange for zooplankton
(epishura)
Proportion of the assimilated food 0.27
going toward the growth of the
epishura
Coefficient of the natural death 0.037 I/day
rate of the epishura
Vant-Hoff coefficient for the cal- 4.9
culation of the dependence of ex-
penditure on the exchange for the
epishura on air temperature
Coefficient of the initial product 0.006 Spring
(phytoplankton) 0.016 Summer
Time for the decomposition of:
dead phytoplankton 5 days
dead zooplankton 110 days
Content of biogenes (N and P) 10.3% ,For epi-
and phyto- and zooplankton 1.8% shura
Optimum temperature limits 1°C Spring
for phytoplankton 15°C Summer
Intensity of anthropogenic sources Parameters fluc-
of organic substances, biogenic tuate withjn
elements and other "pollution" broad limits
139
-------
j p - i
\^_J Anthropogenic
Entrance of biogenic elements
into the lower layer through
decomposition of organic materials
T
Biomass of
phytoplankton
7
\
Death
rate of
\
raze or \ i ; _
phytoplankVpn , ' ^ I legible?
biomass of epishura
Biogenic elements in
the upper layer
rA
-------
S and time, and we should also use the prediction
of industrial consumption V(t, S). Then the function
connected with the utility of the water of the region
will be represented in the form:
C2 = g(t,S)V(t,S) + q
where q is the utility arising during exploitation.
The recreational damage in the case of Lake
Baykal plays a very important role. In order to cal-
culate the latter, let us designate, by Rj(t, S), the
recreational use of the lake in man-hours with due
consideration for the time for coming to the lake,
and, by r(t), the average wage rate. Furthermore,
let R2(t, S) be the expenditure of the tourists. Then
the utility as a result of recreational use, given the
economic policy S, can be represented by the func-
tion:
C3 = ar(t)R1(t,S) + |R2(t,S),
where the coefficient a expresses some permanent
utility of the use of time of capital, which is char-
acteristic for the state in general as an economic
unit.
The economic evaluation of the ecological effects
of diminishing of the variety of present species, in
our opinion, is the most difficult problem, which
must be resolved when converting to the rational
management of natural resources. In order to solve
this problem there must be intensive international
cooperation. To us the following approach seems
promising. It is necessary to construct predictions
of the economic use of types within the major sys-
tematic categories in the next century. Then it is
necessary to create as realistic as possible a model
of technological evolution according to the main
trends, which includes as parameters the number of
types according to categories. After reducing the
indicators of technological evolution to monetary
units it is possible to proceed to an evaluation of
the functions of the value of the abstract units of
the variety of present species within the separate
categories. We will designate by C4 the value of the
ecosystem of the region, which is connected with
the composition of the variety of present species.
Finally, the optimum policy of the exploitation
of the regional resources in time can be found as
the optimum control of the functional of the global
utility of the region, which is represented in the
form:
00
f er*KC. + Q + C, + C, + CJdt,
where er** is a discount factor.
In conclusion, let us note once again that the
reality of this approach to the optimization of the
management of natural resources depends largely on
the success in the economic evaluation of the utility
of the fund of present species, since the meaning of
the remaining components of the functional of the
global utility of the region is quite clear and the
possibility of making specific calculations of the
corresponding values is not in doubt.
As an example, let us cite our evaluations of the
influence of pollution when combatting chemically
massive conifer and leaf mining pests of the forests
of the Lake Baykal region. At present DDT is not
produced in the USSR and is not used in forestry.
We made evaluations of the use of DDT only for
purely methodological purposes, since this insecti-
cide has been well studied.
For evaluating the positive economic effects of
the campaign, a sufficiently detailed model has been
proposed [22]. In calculating the undesirable side
effects of chemical control we take into considera-
tion the following circumstances [14]:
—The probability of an unsuccessful campaign.
—A breakdown in the stability of the forest eco-
system (an increase in the duration of rapid
rises in the number of pests and a decrease in
the period between the rapid rises).
—The loss to livestock breeding and agriculture.
—Recreational damage.
The model obtained was used to determine the
feasibility of chemical control of the pests of the
forests of the Lake Baykal region. For typical con-
ditions we obtained a negative response.* Appar-
ently this method can be considered acceptable.
EXAMPLES OF POSSIBLE USE OF THE
MODEL
Although, as was noted, we do not at present
consider the described model entirely complete (the
model has only gone through the test stage), as an
illustration we will describe examples of its possible
application.
The use of individual modules is of definite inde-
pendent interest.
Thus, the preceding modules (the carrying of
pollution by different geophysical mediums) make
it possible within the complex to evaluate the scope
of pollution of the natural environment and, in par-
ticular, to obtain an answer to such a practically
important question: what is the relative significance
of the various sources of pollution in respect to their
influence on the ecological system of Lake Baykal
(and the other ecosystems of the region)? Prelim-
*At present biological means of combatting forest pests
are being used on an increasingly extensive basis in the
Lake Baykal region.
141
-------
inary calculations show that the Selenga River (the
area of whose catchment is 60% of the total area
of the lake basin and whose flow is 50% of the
total flow of all rivers into Lake Baykal) has a very
great capacity for "self-purification"; on the sector
from the city of Ulan-Ude to the mouth this capac-
ity for "self-purification" with respect to various
ingredients of pollution and to indicators of water
quality varies from 102 to 104. Thus, the Baykal'sk
Pulp and Paper Mill, with all other conditions being
equal, being located in the region of Ulan-Ude,
would have an influence on the Lake Baykal eco-
system that is 102 to 10* times less.
On the other hand, the calculations show that the
presently existing distribution of the sources of pol-
lution and of the influence on the ecosystem of the
lake gives rise to a new role for Selenga River in
the undesirable accumulation in the lake of organic
substances of allochthonous origin. These calcula-
tions, in general, agree with the available data of
observations.
Finally, the calculations using these modules
show the great possible significance for the hydro-
chemistry of the lake and the state of its ecosystem
of the distant atmospheric transfer of pollution.
The modules (prediction of the state of natural
ecosystems and evaluation of the damage from pol-
lution and the optimization of the use of the natural
resources of the region) even in their present incom-
plete form can be used for a rough prediction of the
.state of some basic ecosystems and for a prelim-
inary calculation of the permissible loads of pollu-
tion.
Of no little importance is the following circum-
stance. Each of the described modules, being a part
of the total model, should be "balanced" with all
the other modules in the sense that the precision
and detail of the results they produce should be
approximately identical (it is extremely uneconom-
ical and, in general, senseless to be endlessly occu-
pied with refining the models of transfer and at the
same time to leave in the background the inventory
of sources or the evaluation of the damage caused
by pollution). This general systems assertion is of
great practical significance and, as we have already
noted in the General Description of the Model, has
made it possible for us to refine the program of
further research on the region.
Use of the model as a whole is of very great
interest, since it makes it possible to conduct a com-
prehensive, thorough analysis of the influence of
national economic activity on environmental quality
and the functioning of the ecological systems of the
Lake Baykal region. The model has a prognostic
capacity, and it can be used for examining and eval-
uating (from the point of view of the influence on
the environment) various alternative variants of the
development of the national economy in the region.
In short, the problem of evaluating the influence
of national economic activity consists in distin-
guishing the man-made changes of the environment
and in their comprehension in some proper, more
extensive concepts outside the model — metaterms
(the well-being or troubles of the predictable state
of the natural environment, in connection with this
the desirability or undesirability of carrying out a
proposed project or action).
More strictly speaking, we can place this prob-
lem in the following form.
It is necessary:
—to describe the suggested influence and all its
alternatives,
—to predict the nature and scope of the result
of the influence,
—to formulate the criteria of environmental pro-
tection in this specific case,
—to compile a list of usable indicators, of which
there may be very many, and to formulate a
rule of "summation" of these indicators with
the purpose of facilitating the decision-making
of the appropriate units of government,
—to make one of the following recommenda-
tions:
—to adopt the proposed project of economic
development,
—to undertake the necessary measures to alter
the project and protect the environment,
—to adopt an alternative project,
—to reject the proposed project,
—to make recommendations on measures to
monitor the environmental quality after com-
pletion of the project (if it is adopted).
Of course, we should not adopt too punctually
the formulated form of the question. It often hap-
pens that the complete implementation of all the
steps of this problem of evaluating the influence on
the environment is complicated owing to the com-
plexity of the problems and the existence of many
uncertainties. At first there may be rearrangements
of the order of the individual steps or their com-
bination. The formulated form of the problem
should be taken as a "guide to action" and later its
reformulation is possible.
We see the following possible scheme of the
application of our model within the framework of
this program. Within the module (the evaluation
of the damage caused by pollution and the optimi-
zation of the use of the natural resources of the
region) there is at first an evaluation of the per-
missible (from the ecological standpoint) loads of
pollution. Within the expanded system of the inter-
sectorial mass balance (to which clearly belong the
142
-------
various types of emissions and pollution, as well as
their corresponding "sectors" of refinement or utili-
zation of emissions and pollution) the "optimal"
national economic program is determined. Such a
program will ensure the volume and structure of
the finished product, which are set by planning
units. At the same time the volume of pollution
emitted into the environment corresponds to some
"norm," which is determined by the above-evalu-
ated magnitude of the permissible load on the envi-
ronment.
Thus, the model makes it possible to examine
and evaluate different (including technological)
methods of combatting pollution. In principle the
described approach may also be useful for other
regions.
SUMMARY
The proposed mass-balance simulation model of
the Lake Baykal region is in practice an applicable
instrument of the comprehensive analysis, long-
range prediction and determination of the permis-
sible loads of the influence of national economic
activity on environmental quality and the function-
ing of natural ecological systems. Even at this early
stage, when not all of the modules have been devel-
oped to the same degree, this model has made it
possible to obtain practical, interesting results. For
the least developed modules — the prediction of
the state of natural ecosystems and the evaluation
of the damage caused by pollution and the optimi-
zation of the use of the natural resources of the
region — the paths of improving and finishing them
are suggested.
REFERENCES
1. Yu. A. Anokhin, Yu. A. Izrael', "Systems Analysis
and Imitation Mathematical Modeling as the Metho-
dological Basis of Setting Standards of Anthropogenic
Pollution of the Environment: A Regional Approach,"
Works of the First Soviet-American Symposium on
the Comprehensive Analysis of the Environment, Tbil-
isi, 1974 (in press).
2. Environmental Impact Assessment: Principles and
Procedures, SCOPE report 5, Canada, 1975.
3. Yu. A. Izrael', "Comprehensive Analysis of the Envi-
ronment. Approaches to Determining the Permissible
Loads on the Natural Environment and Substantiating
Monitoring," Tbilisi, 1974 (in press).
4. W. Leontief, D. Ford, "Intersectorial Analysis of the
Structure of Economics on the Environment," Eco-
nomics and Mathematical Models, volume 8, issue 3
(1972).
5. E. A. Laurent, J. C. Kite, "Economic-Ecologic Link-
ages and Regional Growth. A Case Study," Land Eco-
nomics, volume 48, No. 1 (1972).
6. J. Forrester, The Fundamentals of the Cybernetics of
an Enterprise (Industrial Dynamics), Moscow, 1971.
7. H. Hamilton, S. Goldstone, J. Millman, System Simu-
lation for Regional Analysis. An Application to River
Basin Planning, Cambridge, Mass., 1969.
8. M. D. Mesarovich, The Theory of Hierarchic Multi-
Level Systems, Moscow, 1973.
9. Materials of the 3rd Dartmouth School on System
Dynamics, USA, Dartmouth College, 1974.
10. V. V. Nalimov, Logical Foundations of Applied
Mathematics, Moscow, Izdatel'stvo MGU, 1971.
11. V. V. Nalimov, Paper at the School on the Mathe-
matical Modeling of Ecological Systems, Moscow Ob-
last, Mozzhinka, 1973.
12. R. P. Berkovich et al., DYNAMO - The Language of
Mathematical Modeling, Computer Center of the
USSR Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 1972.
13. W. Leontief, "Theoretical Assumptions and Unob-
served Facts," USA - Economics, Politics, Ideology,
No. 9 (1972), pp. 102-105.
14. Yu. A. Anokhin et al., "Imitation-Balance Model of
the Lake Baykal Region. A Report," 1975, Fund of the
Institute of Applied Geophysics.
15. H. Rodhe, "A Study of the Sulphur Budget for the
Atmosphere over Northern Europe," Tellus, volume
24, No. 2 (1972), pp. 128-137.
16. B. Bolin, Ch. Persson, "Regional Dispersion and
Deposition of Atmospheric Pollutants with Particular
Application to Sulphur Pollution over Western Eur-
ope," International Meteorological Institute in Stock-
holm, report AS-28, 1974.
17. V. A. Vetrov et al., "Method of Evaluating the Zones
of Influence of Anthropogenic Sources of Pollution
of Lake Baykal," Report at the 26th Hydrochemical
Conference, Novocherkassk, 1975.
18. N. Rashevsky, Mathematical Biophysics, 3rd edition,
Dover, N. Y., 1960, volume 2, p. 292.
19. R. Rozen, The Principle of Optimality in Biology,
Moscow, Izdatel'stvo Mir, 1969, 215 pp.
20. Economic Problems of the Optimization of the Use
of Nature, a collection of articles edited by N. P.
Fedorenko, Moscow, Nauka, 1973.
21. L. G. Ramenskiy et al., Ecological Evaluation of Fod-
der Lands by the Plant Cover, Moscow, 1956, 472 pp.
22. F. N. Semevskiy, Prediction in Forest Protection,
Moscow, Izdatel'stvo Lesnaya Promyshlennost', 1971.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
"Senior State Advisors of the EEC Countries on Environ-
mental Problems," Materials of a Special Conference of
Experts on the Study of Methods of Evaluating the
Influence of Human Activity on the Environment, Geneva,
1974.
143
-------
MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS FOR MINIMIZING REGIONAL
ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS: RESEARCH ON APPLIED ASPECTS
OF PLANNING, IMPLEMENTATION AND ENFORCEMENT
CHARLES N. EHLER
The determination of the health and ecological
effects of various pollutants and the establishment
of maximum permissible environmental loadings
(for example, the establishment of ambient ak or
water quality standards) is only one, albeit very
important, set of decisions that makes up a manage-
ment system that will ensure the achievement and
maintenance of specified levels of ambient environ-
mental quality in any given region. The purpose of
this paper is to lay out the components of such a
management system and to review briefly the results
of research to date on the development of such sys-
tems for implementation at the non-Federal (that is,
regional) level of government in the United States.
Before beginning, I would like to narrow the dis-
cussion by defining what I mean by the term, "envi-
ronmental quality," since in practice it appears to
have as many definitions as there are individuals
defining it. For example, to the public health offi-
cial, environmental quality involves vector control,
food sanitation, and so on. To the architect or urban
planner, environmental quality means the visual or
aesthetic quality of buildings arranged in space. To
the ecologist, environmental quality might mean pre-
serving the integrity of the natural ecosystem. And
so on. It is notoriously a term which is universally
difficult to get politicians, bureaucrats, scientists, or
the general public to agree on what it is —or how
to measure it.
In the United States, the Environmental Protec-
tion Agency is primarily interested in regulating one
very important subset of environmental quality
problems — those that relate to the discharge of
society's leftovers from production and consumption
into one or more of the natural environmental
media — air, land or water. This sector of problems
has been termed the residuals-environmental quality
sector. It is the management of this sector of prob-
lems that I will now turn to.
Residuals are the non-product (either material or
energy) outputs of production, the value of which
is less than the costs of collecting, processing and
transporting it for use. Thus, the definition is time-
dependent, i.e., is a function of the level of tech-
nology in the society at the point in time and of
the relative costs of alternative inputs to produc-
tion. For example, manure in the United States is
now a residual, whereas 30 years ago it was a val-
uable raw material.
Two basic types of residuals exist — material
and energy. The former has three major forms —
liquid, solid and gaseous. Examples of liquid, or
water-borne, residuals would include suspended
solids and phosphorus; gaseous, or air-borne, resi-
duals would include carbon monoxide, hydrocar-
bons, and sulfur oxides; solid, or land-borne, resi-
duals would include wastepaper, yard wastes, junk
automobiles, and so on. The major energy residuals
are heat, noise, and in a simplified sense, radiation.
Residuals are pervasive. No production process
has yet been designed to completely convert all
material and energy inputs to product outputs. All
activities of society result in the generation and dis-
charge of some material and energy residuals. The
weight of residuals discharged into the air, water,
or land, is approximately equal to the weight of the
raw materials entering various production processes
less the weight of the product output (consumer
goods) produced. This materials balance equation
simply states that the mass of materials used by
society remains in existence over time in some gas-
eous, liquid, solid or energy form, eventually to be
discharged into the natural environment.
It is important to emphasize the inter-relation-
ships among the three forms of material residuals
— one form of material can be transformed into
another and additional material and energy residuals
are often produced in modifying a particular resid-
ual. Further, material residuals can be traded off
for energy residuals.
These inter-relationships can be simply illustrated
by considering a power plant using coal as the fuel
for electric energy generation. The particulates
formed in combustion can be discharged to the
atmosphere in the gaseous stream, that is, up the
stack as a gaseous residual. If, however, there are
144
-------
environmental constraints on such discharges, a
wet scrubber could be installed to wash the partic-
ulates out of the gas stream, thereby transforming
the gaseous residual into a liquid residual, that is,
suspended solids, which could then be discharged
to an adjacent river. Such discharge might adversely
affect water quality, with consequent damage to
fish. To prevent such an impact, a settling basin
could be installed to settle out the suspended solids
in the liquid residual, thereby yielding a solid resid-
ual for disposal on the land.
EPA promulgated (April 1971) primary and sec-
ondary standards for hydrocarbons, carbon monox-
ide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur oxides and particulate
matter—all airborne residuals. In addition, standards
have also been set for photochemical oxidants, even
though they are not directly emitted to the air, but
are a product of atmospheric reactions between
nitrogen oxides and reactive hydrocarbons. National
primary ambient air quality standards are specified
at a level of air quality requisite to protect the
public health, and national secondary ambient air
quality standards are specified at a level of air
quality requisite to protect the public welfare from
any known or anticipated adverse effects associated
with the presence of air pollutant in the ambient air.
Ambient water quality standards are called for
under Section 303 (c) (2) of the Federal Water
Pollution Control Act which states that, "whenever
the State revises or adopts a new standard,.. .such
revised or new water quality standard shall consist
of the designated uses of the navigable waters
involved and the water quality criteria for such
waters based upon such uses. Such standards shall
be such as to protect the public health or welfare,
enhance the quality of water and serve the purposes
of the Act. Such standards shall be established tak-
ing into consideration their use and value for public
water supplies, propagation of fish and wildlife, rec-
reational purposes, and also taking into consideration
their use and value for navigation." The purposes of
the Act are defined in Section 101 and include "an
interim goal of (ambient) water quality which pro-
vides for the protection and propagation of fish,
shellfish, and wildlife and provides for recreation in
and on the water to be achieved by July 1, 1983."
At present no criteria or standards exist for deter-
mining "ambient land quality." EPA does, however,
issue guidelines for sanitary landfills and other solid
residuals disposal activities.
With these standards and guidelines as planning
objectives that will satisfy legislated environmental
quality goals, let's look in more detail at the plan-
ning and management activities that EPA is requir-
ing State, regional and local governments to under-
take in response to Federal legislation — specifically
Air Quality Maintenance and Areawide Waste
Treatment Management planning guidelines.
After the Federal air quality standards were
established, the States were required to submit plans
by which they would ensure that the standards
would be attained by 1975. The States hurriedly
responded to this requirement and on May 31, 1972,
EPA published its approvals and disapprovals of
the State Implementation Plans, and a little later,
promulgated substitute regulations for deficient State
plans.
However, not everyone was satisfied that the plan
approvals were justified. Section 110 of the Clean
Air Act specifies the conditions under which a State
Implementation Plan may be approved. One of the
conditions states that the plan must include "...
emission limitations, schedules, and timetables for
compliance with such limitations, and such other
measures as may be necessary to ensure attainment
and maintenance of such primary or secondary
standards, including, but not limited to, land use
and transportation controls. .. ." The Natural
Resources Defense Council (NRDC) challenged
EPA's approvals on the basis of this passage. NRDC
contended that while the plans may have been ade-
quate to insure attainment of the standards by
1975, they were not adequate to insure maintenance
of the standards beyond 1975. On January 31,
1973, the U. S. Court of Appeals for the District
of Columbia ordered EPA to once again review all
State Implementation Plans to determine if they did
contain adequate measures to insure maintenance
of standards. EPA did so, found all plans inade-
quate, and disapproved them with respect to main-
tenance on March 8, 1973. Then, on June 18,
1973, EPA promulgated regulations requiring
States to develop Air Quality Maintenance Plans
for areas with the potential for exceeding a National
Ambient Air Quality Standard between 1975 and
1985.
From June 1973 until very recently, EPA and
the States have been mainly involved with designa-
ting these air quality maintenance areas. They have
now reached the point where the in-depth analysis
and plan development for these areas must begin.
To date, EPA has identified a total of 102 Air
Quality Maintenance Areas and is preparing notices
to identify approximately 60 other areas.
The Federal Water Pollution Control Act
Amendments of 1972 set forth requirements for
controlling all types of water pollution. Section 208
of the Act provides for Areawide Waste Treatment
Management Planning in areas with substantial water
quality control problems due to urban-industrial
145
-------
concentrations or other factors. Regulations on 208
area and agency designations were published by
EPA in September 1973.
Through Section 208 planning, local areas are
provided a unique opportunity to plan and manage
a comprehensive pollution control program for
municipal and industrial wastewater, storm and
combined sewer runoff, non-point source control
and land use, as it relates to water quality. Through
a locally controlled planning agency, an area can
select a cost-effective and institutionally feasible
plan directed toward meeting the 1983 goals of the
Federal Water Pollution Control Act. It will focus
on an integrated approach for identifying and con-
trolling the most serious water pollution problems
initially and, over time, resolving the remaining
problems, where feasible. Particular emphasis will
be placed upon non-structural approaches to pollu-
tion control, such as fiscal policy and land manage-
ment, rather than traditional structural measures
normally requiring large capital investments. The
management agency and institutional arrangements
most able to insure implementation of the plan
would also be selected by the area. Periodic review
and updating of the plan and management arrange-
ments will allow for response to new information
and changing conditions.
To date, approximately 149 areas have been
designated as 208 planning areas, but it is antici-
pated that most metropolitan areas, roughly 250,
will be preparing 208 plans. Additionally, all 50
States, will be preparing plans for non-designated
areas of their respective States.
Many metropolitan regions of the United States
will require the preparation of both Air Quality
Maintenance and 208-type plans.
Having defined the planning objectives as attain-
ing and maintaining Federally and State-specified
levels of ambient air and water quality, and having
briefly outlined the planning and management
requirements for regional waste management plan-
ning, let's now turn to examining the kinds of infor-
mation needed by non-Federal environmental plan-
ners and managers in order to develop strategies
for accomplishing these objectives.
First, we should identify and describe the "sys-
tem" that we are attempting to plan and manage.
What are the economic and physical (or techno-
logical) components of the residuals-environmental
quality management system? Stated another way,
what are the variables that in combination deter-
mine ambient environmental quality?
In any given region, activities are distributed
over space and time. This spatial and temporal pat-
tern both reflects and affects "final demand," that
is, the total goods and services desired by society.
Each of the individual activities — households,
industrial plants, transportation systems, and so on
— reflects (1) some combination of factor inputs
to produce a given output or service, or, as in the
case of households, to use the products and services;
and (2) the generation of various types and quan-
tities of residuals. The activities can be characterized
as point (for example, an industrial plant), line
(for example, traffic flow on a major artery), or
area or non-point (for example, agricultural opera-
tions or residential areas) sources of residuals.
In the environment, residuals undergo various
physical, chemical, and biological processes —
transport, decomposition, sedimentation, accumula-
tion, and so on. These processes transform the time
and spatial pattern of residuals discharge from the
various activities into a resulting time and spatial
pattern of ambient environmental quality, measured
by whatever indicators are of interest, for example,
concentration of sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere,
concentration of suspended solids in river water,
hectares of land disturbed by strip mining, and so
on.
The resulting ambient environmental quality
impinges directly on the receptors — humans,
plants, animals, materials. The impacts on the recep-
tors, that is, "damages," as perceived by human
beings, and the responses of individuals and groups
to the perceived damages, provide the stimulus for
action. Figure 1 is a simple representation of these
relationships.
But in fact we are dealing with a very compli-
cated technological, economic and social system.
Ambient environmental quality is determined by a
ECONOMIC-
PHYSICAL
SYSTEMS
PLANNING
AND
MANAGEMENT
MODELS
FINAL
DEMAN
SOURCE
5
ECONOMIC ACTIV
MODELS — >4 MODE
RESIDUAL
'ITY
1
-------
number of regional variables including the "final
demand" for goods and services desired by society
(for example, the number of BTU's required per
household for space heating, the number of passen-
ger trips per person for work purposes, and so on),
the spatial and temporal distribution of activities
(that is, the land use patterns) in any given region
(for example, the spatial pattern of activities deter-
mines the type of regional transportation system),
regional production technologies (for example, the
nature of industrial unit production processes, or
the type of transportation system — internal com-
bustion engine automobile, electrically powered mass
transportation, etc.), the raw material and energy
inputs to production processes (for example, the
sulfur content of fuels used), the nature of technol-
ogy used for material and energy recovery, for by-
product production, for "waste treatment," and so
on, as well as technologies for directly modifying
the assimilative capacity of the natural environment.
The functional relationships of these variables are
illustrated in Figure 2.
Action to perceptions of environmental quality
problems is reflected in the development of residuals
management strategies through a continuing man-
agement process, consisting of the components illus-
trated in Figure 3. The development of residuals
management strategies should involve the identifica-
tion and evaluation of the complete range of:
(I)physical methods or technological options with
which to affect residuals generation and discharge
or to modify the assimilative capacity of the natural
environment directly, see Table 1; (2) the identifi-
cation of related implementation measures with
which to affect the physical methods, see Table 2;
and (3) institutional arrangements that have the
authority to affect the implementation measures and
incentives. Through the identification of a complete
range of residuals management components, deci-
sionmakers can be made aware of the variety of
alternative means for achieving environmental
quality objectives in an economical, efficient and
equitable manner. This stage of the management
process should be undertaken without consideration
of constraints, such as the level of technology cur-
rently available, legal authority to implement, po-
tential economic impacts, political feasibility, and
so on. Constraints are not to be disregarded, of
course, but they are more constructively considered
in the later evaluation and selection phases of the
management process.
After the alternative residuals management strate-
gies are identified and evaluated (see Table 3 for
a suggested set of evaluation criteria), and the
"best" strategy has been identified, based upon the
TABLE 1. PHYSICAL METHODS (OR
TECHNOLOGICAL OPTIONS)
A. METHODS TO REDUCE/MODIFY "FINAL
DEMAND" FOR GOODS AND SERVICES
Examples: reduce per capita use of goods and services,
limit absolute population in given area, change "life-
style," etc.
B. METHODS FOR REDUCING THE DISCHARGE
OF WASTES (RESIDUALS)
1. Methods for reducing residuals generation
a. Change inputs to production processes
1. raw materials (including water)
2. energy
b. Change production processes
1. process technology
2. operating rate
c. Change mix of product outputs
d. Change individual product output specifications
2. Methods for modifying residuals after generation
a. Apply materials or energy recovery technology
(direct recycle)
b. Utilize by-products of production (indirect recycle)
1. on-site
2. joint or collective facility
c. Apply waste treatment (pollution control)
technology (without recovery of any material or
energy)
1. on-site
2. joint or collective facility
C. METHODS DIRECTLY INVOLVING THE ASSIM-
ILATIVE CAPACITY OF THE NATURAL ENVIRON-
MENT (AIR, WATER, LAND)
1. Methods for making better use of the existing
assimilative capacity of the natural environment
a. Change the spatial distribution of existing or new
activities
b. Change the temporal distribution of existing or
new activities
c. Change the spatial distribution of the discharge of
residuals
d. Change the temporal distribution of the discharge
of residuals
2. Methods for increasing the assimilative capacity of
the natural environment
Examples: low flow augmentation, artificial mixing,
artificial aeration, weather modification, etc.
D. FINAL PROTECTIVE METHODS
Examples: air conditioning, sound-proofing, thermal
insulation, etc.
"weights" given to each of the evaluation criteria,
the strategy is implemented. Implementation would
include the construction of facilities, the collection
of effluent charges, and so on. Implementation, in
turn, is followed by enforcement, monitoring and
surveillance.
The strategy as implemented is then subject to
ongoing evaluation with continuing feedback so that
the decision-makers can make the predictably nec-
essary adjustments to the strategy. The entire man-
agement process is a repetitive one with continuous
feedback and recognition of the interrelation of each
step.
147
-------
IB
3
s
I
I
I
1
c
o
M
Ci
£
-------
3
o
as
o
= c
to a)
Q)
>
o
CO _
£ 2
(!)
-------
I
i
(0
I
at
w
2!
I
K
150
-------
TABLE 2. IMPLEMENTATION MEASURES/
INCENTIVES
A. REGULATORY
1. Specifications of physical method
a. Specify raw material or energy input standards
b. Specify production process standard
c. Specify product output standard
d. Specify residuals modification or handling standard
2. Specification of performance or result
a. Specify residuals discharge standard
1. per unit of product output
2. per unit of raw material processes
3. per unit of. time
b. Specify residuals concentration natural environment
(ambient environmental standards)
c. Specify technological performance standards
3. Specification of location of activities (land use
regulations)
4. Specification of size, timing and type of activities
5. Specification of regulatory procedures
Examples: EIS requirements, procedural planning
requirements, compliance schedule preparation, etc.
B. ECONOMIC
1. Direct application to residuals
Examples: effluent/emission charges, fines for spills,
sale of discharge rights, etc.
2. Application to raw material/energy inputs or product
outputs
Examples: surcharge on energy use, charge on each
pound of DDT applied, etc.
3. Applications to activities
Examples: parking surcharges, subsidies for mass
transit, differential property taxes, etc.
4. Application to residuals modification or handling
Examples: Federal grants for sewage treatment
facilities, tax write-offs on costs of installation of
treatment technologies, etc.
5. Direct public investment in other than residuals
modification or handling technologies
Examples: open space land banking, mass transit
investments, etc.
C. ADMINISTRATIVE (procedures and activities within
public or private organizations that can be used to
modify residuals generation and discharge)
Examples: purchasing procedures, requiring separation
of solid residuals for recycling, car pool requirements,
specification of lighting levels within offices, etc.
D. EDUCATIONAL/INFORMATIONAL
Examples: provision of technical information,
forums/seminars/workshops, public relations, public
interest group support, etc.
TABLE 3. POSSIBLE REQM STRATEGY
EVALUATION CRITERIA
Physical effects:
—Reduction in quantities discharged to ambient envi-
ronment.
—Improvements in ambient environmental quality.
Economic effects:
—Direct costs are expenditures required in responding
to a particular strategy. These include investment and
operating costs for control equipment, incremental
costs of fuel switching, costs of production, process
changes, emission monitoring costs, administrative
costs for accounting and reporting, costs of super-
vision of operating personnel, and costs required of
the governmental unit for implementing and enforcing
a strategy, such as operating costs for permit review
programs, monitoring air quality, review source in-
ventories, and source surveillance.
—Other economic effects are the benefits and costs that
accrue to society as a result of implementing a par-
ticular residuals management strategy. These may
include employment, income to other firms, change
in income tax, changes in property taxes, change to
new receptors, increased cost of user goods and dis-
location of people.
Legal consideration in terms of:
—Existing enabling legislation.
—Nature and extent of legal precedents.
—Susceptibility of implementation measure to legal
challenge.
—New legislation required.
Administrative considerations in terms of flexibility; i.e.,
the strategy must be able to respond effectively to:
—Seasonal variations.
—Changes in prices, technology, etc. over time.
—New information—e.g., as the national system (ambient
environment) responds the strategy must be able to
adjust.
—New goals, new priorities—e.g., as society's needs and
desires change, new people are elected or appointed
to decision-making positions.
Time considerations—institutional arrangements must
Account for lapsed time from passage (adoption) of ordi-
nance or regulation (implementation measure) to actual
response by residuals generators in initiating their actions
(selection of physical methods):
—Time required to implement strategy.
—Time required to obtain first results and/or benefits.
Political considerations in terms of feasibility of adoption.
Public responsiveness in terms of acceptability.
There is also the institutional dimension to for-
mulating regional residuals-environmental quality
management strategies. A number of questions
arise. One is concerned with the legality of the use
of various fneasures for environmental quality
management by different levels of government. For
example:
-------
a function of transportation and land use policies,
(b) utilizes efficient wet scrubbing of stack gases
from industries and power plants, and (c) disposes
of garbage by grinding, transporting in sewers,
discharging it untreated to water courses, would
have high air quality. But the water courses of the
region would be subjected to a heavy residuals load,
with probable severely adverse consequences on
water quality. Alternatively, suppose the region
treats its municipal and industrial liquid residuals
to a high degree, and relies almost exclusively on
incineration of sludges and solid residuals to handle
the residuals from these treatment processes. High
quality of the water and land environments would
result, but at the expense of a heavy residuals load
discharged to the air. If the region were to practice
high-level recovery of residuals with the related
recycling and by-product production, combined with
the stimulation of production processes which
resulted in the generation of small quantities of
residuals per unit of product and service, very few
residuals might well be discharged into any of the
natural environments.
In order to analyze residuals-environmental qual-
ity management in any region, various relationships
must be developed. These include not only estimates
of residuals generation coefficients, and relationships
between the time and spatial patterns of residuals
discharged into the environment and resulting
ambient environmental quality, but also relation-
ships between environmental quality and damages
to various users, and relationships between the costs
of residuals modifications or reduction and the
degree of reduction. For example, the cost of par-
ticulate removal from a gaseous stream increases
as the degree of removal increases. As 100%
removal is approached, the incremental cost
increases very rapidly. At the same time, there are
economies of scale in residuals handling, modifica-
tion, and disposal.
Ambient environmental quality varies both in
time and in space. Environmental quality is stochas-
tic in nature because of the time variation of assim-
ilative capacity and the time variation in the genera-
tion and discharge of residuals. Thus, the analysis
of residuals-environmental quality and policies for
residuals management must include explicit consid-
eration of space. For example, recent studies have
shown that failure to consider the locations of liquid
residuals discharges can increase costs by 50% or
more, to achieve a desired level of quality, if all
dischargers are required to reduce by the same
amounts regardless of their impacts on water qual-
ity. Failure to consider the locations of gaseous resid-
uals discharges and the affected receptors in an
airshed — in relation to variation in assimilative
capacity over the airshed — can double the costs
to achieve a given level of air quality. In a recent
study, jointly funded by the Council on Environ-
mental Quality, the Department of Housing and the
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, it was cal-
culated that planned low-density residential develop-
ment in clusters can reduce air pollution by 20 to
30% and energy consumption by about 14%.
Planned higher density development can further
reduce these effects. With higher density develop-
ment, air pollution can be reduced by as much as
45%. Both good planning and the use of higher
density development can lead to reductions in water
pollution as well.
The feasibility, costs and effectiveness of resid-
uals-environmental quality management strategies
are heavily dependent upon policies relating to land
use and regional development, that is, the timing
and location of activities in a metropolitan region.
For example, transportation oriented toward mass
transit will rarely be feasible except where the
regional pattern consists of a core city or, at mini-
mum, concentrated subcenters of activity. Similarly,
heating of dwelling units from communal rather
than individual systems is not feasible with a dis-
persed settlement pattern. The costs of many of the
residuals recovery-recycling systems, increase rapidly
with urban sprawl.
A major challenge then to regional planners and
decision-makers is to incorporate the problems of
residuals-environmental quality management explic-
itly into their plans and operating decisions. This
integration of environmental considerations into
regional land use decisions is key to the future suc-
cess of environmental programs. This is precisely
the kind of consideration that EPA hopes to have
built into the regional planning and management
process through its current planning requirements.
In conclusion, this paper has explored the nature
of the residuals problem, described the elements of
residuals-environmental quality management strate-
gies, and developed an overall management process.
These concepts and principles are being further
developed in research projects of the Regional
Environmental Management Program in the Office
of Research and Development. A list of current
extra-mural research is appended to this paper.
One final comment — in no situation in which
the residuals-environmental quality management
framework is to be applied to a given region will
there be unlimited time, resources and data. A deci-
sion concerning selection of an REQM strategy to
be applied in a given area may have to be made
in one month, one year, or occasionally only after
several years. What is important to be emphasized
is that the approach is the same, regardless of the
152
-------
amount of time and resources available. The meth-
odology can be applied within whatever time and
resource constraints exist. The difference is in the
degree of detail applied to the various elements of
the analysis and strategy development. For example,
with fewer resources, fewer models of residuals
generation and discharge from various activities
will be developed — more aggregate models will
be necessary; fewer and less detailed, and probably
less accurate environmental models and less accu-
rate cost functions will be developed; fewer REQM
strategies and environmental quality levels will be
analyzed. The utility of having a consistent overall
conceptual framework is that it enables and forces
the analyst to make explicit the assumptions he has
to make because of limitations of analytical
resources. This expedites reanalysis in the next
round of the continuous planning process for resid-
uals-environmental quality management.
DEFINITIONS
Two groups of words and terms are used in
describing the approach set forth in this paper.
Words and terms in the first group have technical
meanings which, in some instances, may differ from
common usage of the word or term. Terms in the
second group are new in the sense that they are
used in this report to describe the residuals man-
agement strategy which is the focal point of the
paper.
First Group:
—Products
—Non-Product Outputs
—Intermediate Products
—Residuals
Second Group:
—Physical Methods
—Implementation Measures
—Institutional Arrangements
—Residuals Management Strategy
In the first group, products, non-product outputs,
intermediate products and residuals are terms used
in describing the production process for, and use
of, goods and services. In fulfilling the demands for
goods and services, producers and suppliers respond
by providing certain products—i.e. goods and serv-
ices. In so doing, other outputs result which are not
the primary or intended products. These are non-
product outputs. Non-product outputs may be uti-
lized or discarded depending on their economic
value. If utilized, they are intermediate products; if
discarded, they are residuals. The distinction between
intermediate products and residuals is a practical one
based solely on economic value and without consid-
eration of the effect of environmental controls. In
other words, residuals are non-product outputs
which would not be recycled, reused or recovered
unless some type of environmental or pollution con-
trol was imposed on the producer.
It should be noted that external factors which
change from time to time and which are beyond the
control of the producer of goods and services deter-
mine whether the non-product output is an inter-
mediate product or a residual. As an example, at
a given point in time it may be more profitable for
an industry to use virgin raw material than to
recover the same raw material that is a non-product
output (e.g., virgin iron ore vs. scrap or virgin fiber
vs. recycled newsprint). Thus, the non-product out-
put is a residual. Later, due to price increase or
unavailability of the virgin raw material, it is profit-
able to recover and reuse the non-product output
which thereby is changed from a residual to an
intermediate product. This distinction between inter-
mediate products and residuals is important since
it is residuals that are the targets of environmental
controls.
In the second group, physical methods, imple-
mentation measures, and institutional arrangements
are used to describe the components of the residuals
management strategy (pollution control strategy) of
this report. They are defined in detail since they
are the basis for describing the residuals manage-
ment strategy.
—Physical Methods: Technological or structural
actions which result in a change of the quan-
tity, type, timing, or spatial location of resid-
uals discharged into the ambient environment
and/or improve the assimilative capacity of
the natural environment. Examples of physical
actions are changes in production process
technologies, changes in the operating rate of
the production process, treatment of residuals
(changing form), in-stream aeration, and so on.
—Implementation Measures: Non-structural ac-
tions such as laws, regulations and ordinances
to induce implementation of desired physical
methods. Implementation measures also achieve
established goals and objectives consistent
with established policies. Examples of imple-
mentation instruments include performance
and product specifications, emissions (resid-
uals) limitations, zoning, federal funding for
treatment plants, accelerated depreciation for
pollution control devices, phosphate limitation
on home laundry detergents, and so on.
—Institutional Arrangements: The established
public organizations at all levels which establish
goals and objectives, which select, initiate,
operate, and enforce physical methods, and
which have the authority to identify and adopt
implementation measures. Institutional arrange-
153
-------
ments also include intra-organization and inter-
organization arrangements. Examples include
Federal, State, city, county, regional, and inter-
state legislative and administrative bodies.
-Residuals Management Strategy: A combina-
tion of physical methods, implementation
measures, and institutional arrangements
adopted for the purpose of reducing or elim-
inating the discharge of residuals into the envi-
ronment and/or reducing or eliminating their
impact if discharged—i.e. achieving environ-
mental quality objectives.
Physical methods may be viewed as the "hard-
ware" as compared to the other components which
may be viewed as the "software" of the residuals
management strategy.
154
-------
MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF SOME ECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC
MODELS
M. YA. ANTONOVSKIY and S. M. SEMENOV
The extensive addressing of ecological-economic,
as well as purely economic, problems has led in the
past 30 years to the appearance of completely new
trends in mathematical thought. The founders of
these trends were such outstanding mathematicians
as J. von Neuman, L. V. Kantorovich, L. S. Pon-
tryagin and R. Bellman. These trends were then
developed and spread extensively by their numerous
students and followers.
The classical method of modeling ecological-eco-
nomic systems was the construction of the appro-
priate differential equations, which approximately
describe, given certain hypotheses, real processes.
However, quite frequently the attempt to use a well-
developed mathematical apparatus prevailed over
the competency of its application. Therefore, the
theoretical curves obtainable from models unsatis-
factorily (even qualitatively) corresponded to reality.
This occurred owing to the violation of one of the
basic principles of the construction of mathematical
models — the principle of adequacy of the mathe-
matical apparatus.
In reality it proves that discrete models (gen-
erally speaking, more difficult for their mathe-
matical study) more adequately describe the eco-
logical-economic processes being modeled. The
mappings which correspond to discrete processes
only rarely coincide with the operations of a shift
along the trajectories of differential equations.
For studying ecological-economic systems exten-
sive use is made of the mathematical apparatus of
the theory of stochastic processes, the theory of
stability, and the theory of optimum control. In
these sections of mathematics there have crystallized
such concepts as stability, contingency and opti-
mality, which are natural analogues, idealizations of
the corresponding biological and ecological-ecor
nomic concepts.
At present in the mathematical modeling of eco-
logical-economic systems two basic approaches are
noted: on the one hand, the construction of such
models in which ecological variables are the main
disaggregate variables, while economics belongs to
these models as aggregate variables that play the
role of limiting factors, and on the other hand,
there have become widespread the models of eco-
nomic systems in which the ecological variables are
now very aggregated and are limiting factors in the
development of production. The widely known For-
rester-Meadows global models [1,2] are an example
of the latter. Let us also note the indirect considera-
tion of ecological factors in the form of limitations
of pollutants, which was done by W. Leontif within
his "input-output" model [3]. An analogous indirect
consideration of the ecological factors in the eco-
nomic models of Walras, Arrow-Debray, J. von
Neuman [4] and others is very desirable.
Ideally, of course, it is desirable to construct
models in which variables of both types are disag-
gregated. However, right now by flexible combina-
tion of models of the two above-described types,
we can obtain significantly realistic evaluations for
the optimum selection of ecological-economic strate-
gies.
It should be noted that both types of models are
of interest from the viewpoint of specific econom-
ics. The central question of modern ecology is the
question of the optimum and maximum permissible
anthropogenic influences on the environment. This
question is subdivided into three closely interrelated
ones, which form the organic whole of the question
— observation of the state of the environment
(monitoring), the study of the mechanism and
structure of the ecosystems themselves and the direct
consequences of anthropogenic influences on the
environment. In this report we will treat the first
two of the above-formulated questions.
In this paper we examine some mathematical
models of ecological-economic systems, and also
give a qualitative and quantitative analysis of their
features.
In selecting the material, we tried to hold to the
following principle: to examine only those models
which can provide concrete results to practitioners
— economists and ecologists — when there are
sufficient data.
In the first model we find a phenomenon in the
dynamics of populations, which we call ecological
155
-------
elasticity. The second model makes it possible to
state a hypothesis on the existence of an extensive
class of complex systems, the dynamics of which
can be predicted from the dynamics of the subsys-
tems, which have fewer elements than the entire
system and yield a more precise description. The
third model is an example of the optimum (from
an ecological standpoint) system for observing the
size of a population, using the tracking of forest
pests as an example.
MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF THE
ENTOMOFAUNA (AN ANALYSIS OF
MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF THE
NICHOLSON-BAILEY TYPE)
Recently extensive studies have been made which
are devoted to questions of biological control of
pests. As opposed to chemical control of forest
pests, which in essence is a periodically repeated
destructive measure, biological control is a one-
time influence on the ecosystem, which leads to the
creation of a stable system of the self-regulation of
the size of the pest population, which excludes the
possibility of the emergence of outbreaks of the
massive reproduction of the pests.
One of the biological methods of controlling pests
is the creation of a system of the parasite-host type.
The 1932 work of Nicholson [5] already described
a system of difference equations, which models the
interaction of parasite-hosts. In this work Nicholson
numerically revealed in particular the absence of
stationary solutions of this system, which according
to Lyapunov are stable. He interpreted this fact as
the instability of the real ecosystem.
In developing the ideas of Nicholson, Hassel and
Varley [6], as well as Watt [7], analyzed specific
models and subjected them to a study for stability.
A survey of these works can be found in the book
of Williamson [8].
In this report we examine our parasite-host
model, which contains as special submodels the
above-mentioned models. We examine the parasite-
host system with a single reproduction per unit of
time per year from n to (n +1).
Let y and x be the numbers, respectively, of the
host and the parasite, and k be the coefficient of
the natural reproduction of the host. Furthermore,
let f(x,y) be the portion of hosts not affected by
the x parasite. Of course, 00. This point is found
from the solutions of the system of equations
x -p(y ) = 0, kf(x ,y ) = 1.
The number of hosts and parasites will fluctuate
around x and y , respectively.
For the study of the stationary point for stability
let us calculate the Jacobi matrix of the mapping
of 1 at the point (x , y ).
,y ) =
Sf
xn+i=a(l-f(xn,yn))yn
yn+i =kf(xmyn)yn
(1)
-ay —(x , y ), a(l -f(x , y ))-ay —(x , y
ky (x ,y ),kf(x ,
The characteristic numbers of the matrix J(x , y )
are the roots of the equation:
1+ky g-(x ,y )-ay -^(x ,y
-aky |£(x ,y )j- =0
A sufficient condition of stability, as is known, is
the condition [A^, |A2|<1, and of instability l^Aj
or 1<|A2|.
If there is given the level of the number A, which
characterizes the outbreak of the massive reproduc-
tion of the host, i.e., its number when 100% of
156
-------
the trees are being eaten by caterpillars, then we
can calculate y0(A), the lower critical level after
which an outbreak arises.
Theorem 2. For any number A there is a number
of hosts y«(A) such that when y0= y«(A) the trajec-
tory of the mapping of 1 with this initial condition
will as a result necessarily enter into the domain
y>A.
The above analysis of a mathematical model of
the Nicholson-Bailey type makes it possible to for-
mulate the following conclusions:
1. Decreases in the size of the population of
forest pests to lower than some critical level, which
arise periodically as a result of anthropogenic and
natural causes (weather, fires, etc.), as a consequence
lead to outbreaks of massive reproduction. We call
this phenomenon ecological elasticity. The critical
levels can easily be calculated in each specific model,
provided we know beforehand the level of the out-
break, i.e., the 100% eating of the green mass.
2. The existence of the effect of ecological elas-
ticity in the parasite-host model indicates the need
to search for the optimum combination of various
methods of controlling insect pests: biological,
chemical, microbiological. As is apparently evident
from the above-cited analysis, the attempts to sta-
bilize the size of the population of insect pests only
through the use of parasites are not very promising.
In the appendix we numerically analyze specific
models of type 1. The materials of this section are
expounded in more detail in work [9].
THE APPROACH TO CREATING
BIOLOGICAL METHODS OF
PREDICTING THE STATES OF NATURAL
ECOSYSTEMS
Natural ecosystems are classical examples of so-
called large or complicated systems. In foreign
and domestic literature this term is usually under-
stood to mean the systems described by a very
large number of variables, the nature of whose inter-
action at the present stage of development of science
we are not able to establish in all its details (and
frequently not even approximately). This circum-
stance, however, does not remove from the agenda
the problem of analyzing such systems and, in par-
ticular, the problem of predicting their states.
The topicality and importance of such problems
as weather forecasting, the prediction of outbreaks
of the massive reproduction of forest pests, etc., are
known to all. The usual approach to solving prob-
lems such as the problem of weather forecasting
consists in the maximum detailed continuous fqllow-
ing of the state of the atmosphere and the subse-
quent extrapolation of the available data into the
future through the use of statistical methods. This
method of forecasting is very uneconomical, since
it requires, should we wish to increase its effective-
ness, very large expenditures on the creation and
maintenance of a network of stationary observation
points, as well as on in-depth probing of the upper
layers of the atmosphere.
Below we discuss a fundamentally different,
strictly biological approach to the problem of pre-
dicting the states of natural ecosystems.
The information about the future state of an eco-
system has already been placed in its present state,
and namely, it has been encoded in the processes of
development of the biological species from which
this ecosystem is formed. This is a direct conse-
quence of the developed system of adaptation to a
change in the environment, which has been worked
out by evolution for biological organisms. After
studying this system of adaptation, we will be able
to decipher the information about the future of the
ecosystem, which has been placed in its present
dynamics.
Let us examine a phenomenon of the reflection
of the future state of an ecosystem in its present
state through a specific example — the example of
diapause.
In biology it is known that populations of species
of some biological organisms, which are ready for
the start of the process of reproduction, draw out
this process in time. This phenomenon of asyn-
chronization of the moments of reproduction of
species in a population has been called diapause.
Diapause is widespread among Lepidoptera,
Hymenoptera, Coleoptera and Diptera, as well as
among seeds of dycotyledonous plants.
Since diapausing species are destroyed by biotic
and abiotic factors [10-13], and also waste energy
resources [14], the biological significance of dia-
pause for a long time was unable to be explained
satisfactorily.
In work [15] S. M. Semenov demonstrates on
the basis of very general assumptions that such phe-
nomena can theoretically be explained by using the
stochastic principle of the optimality of progeny.
As preceding examples of the use of the principle
of the optimality of progeny as a consequence of
natural selection we can cite the works of F. N.
Semevskiy [16], Cohen [17], and Lewontin and
Cohen [18].
Let us have A new cocoons, and let the problem
consist in distributing this set into N groups (we
believe that diapause cannot last more than N years
for physiological reasons),
157
-------
from which fly away imagoes in 1, 2,..., N years
respectively, and the set At,..., AN, 2Ai= 1, A^O,
should be selected such that the mathematical expec-
tation of the logarithm of the number of progeny of
this group would be the maximum.* We will cal-
culate the contingency of the environment by two
means. Let ai be the probability that the pupa will
live to the ith year. Of couse, a^a^.. .^aN, a1 = l.
Furthermore, let p(Xj,..., XN) be some random
process that models the contingency of the condi-
tions of the existence of the organisms being exam-
ined in the active phase (X^A is the progeny of
one pupa which has lived through the ith winter).
With respect to p we will assume that:
0 • • * > ^N/ I /+{——v/j ^i A! ~~ J. > »
Given each set (Xj,..., XN) the functional:
(A! ,..., AN) h ln(SAi AaiXO
is continuous at K. It is clear that the operation of
taking the mathematical expectation for the sets
(Xj,..., XN), i.e., the operation of integration for
the vector parameter X= (X1;. . ., XN), given rea-
sonable assumptions on the density p, again leads
us to a continuous function. Thus F is a continuous
"The substantiation of precisely this selection of the
integral functional can be found in works [3,17,18].
function for the compact and, consequently, has a
maximum and reaches it at K.
Uniqueness of the Optimum Strategy (V**, . . . ,
AN°pt)
Given any set X1 , . . . , XN the functional
Fx(At , . . . ,AN) = InGAiAaiX.)
is a strictly concave functional, i.e.,
A'N + A"
x(A'x , . . . , A'N) + Fx( V'! , . . . ,A"N)
This property will be retained after taking the
mathematical expectation, i.e., after averaging this
inequality with the weight p. Consequently, F is a
strictly concave functional and, hence, has at K
only one maximum.
MONOTONY OF THE OPTIMUM STRATEGY
LetusshowthatjA1opt^A2opt^. . . ^ANopt. For this
we will prove, for example, that A1°Pt^A.2opt.
As will be evident from the proof, it is literally cor-
rect for the case A^'^A^for any i= 1 , . . . , N - 1.
N
Thus, let (X. , . . . , XN) = u, p(u) = 2 A, Aa,X,.
i = 3
Then, owing to property b) of the process p we have
the chain of equalities
00 00
At , . . . ,AN) =| ... I ln(2 AjaiXiA)
J J 1=1
o o
p(X)dX, . . . dXN
00 00
= J . . . J p(X)ln(Mi AX 1 + A2a2AX 2 + P(o)
o o
dX.dX.dX3. . . dXN
00 00
= \ J ... J { InCA.aaAX,
+ A2a2AX2 + p(o)
o o
.AX, + X2a2AX1 + p(u) ) "j- p(X)dX.
Let us transform the expression in braces to the form
ln[ P2(u) + Ap(u) (X, + X2) (A, a, + A2a2)
J.].
158
-------
It is easy to show that given X1,X2,a1,a2^0,
•A + X2a2
Consequently, given the permutation (A1;X2) - '
(X2,X1) the functional F is always increasing.
Hence it follows that given any laj it follows that \iovt>\j0ft,
from ai = a] it follows that X,05* = Xjopt.
In particular, inasmuch as a^a^. . . ^aN, then
NONTRIVIALITY OF THE OPTIMUM
STRATEGY
If a random process is trivial, i.e., it consists in
all of one trajectory X1 = X2 = . . . = XN = C, then
owing to a^ai
SXiEiAC-SX^AC = aiAC.
It is clear that in this case the optimum strategy
would be the strategy Xj = 1, X2 = X3 = . . . = XN = 0.
From this examination it quickly follows that
given any determinate process the optimum strategy
has the nature of an impulse.
Let us show that in a significantly stochastic case
the optimum strategy can be fundamentally differ-
ent.
Indeed, when a1 = a2=l, among the double-pulse
strategies (i.e., for which X3 = . . . = XN = 0) the opti-
mum would be the strategy \± = X2 = £; consequently:
M { ln(a, AXJ } < M { InCKAX, + |a2AX2) } .
Furthermore, this inequality remains correct when
a2 is close to 1. Consequently, in this case the opti-
mum strategy cannot be single-pulse, since the
strategy X1 = X2 = 1, X3 = . . . = XN = 0 is better than
the latter.
Above we strictly demonstrated within a quite
extensive model that from the stochastic principle
of the optimality of progeny there can theoretically
be obtained the existence of the effect of the
asynchronization of the moments of reproduction of
species in some population. Let us note that by
remaining within the framework of deterministic
notions we could not have obtained this effect.
On the basis of the obtained results we can assert
that evolution is capable of developing adaptation
not only to determined, but also to random proc-
esses. Thus, we believe it necessary to supplement
the conception of A. S. Monchkuskiy [19].
The optimum strategy, the qualitative properties
of which we have studied, can be found by solving
the very complicated task of stochastic approxima-
tion using a computer.
Thus, the phenomenon of diapause of species, or
more broadly, the phenomenon of asynchronization
of development, can be considered completely
explained. Moreover, it is possible to precisely
explain theoretically the strategy of a type under
the conditions of a random environment with given
statistical properties.
In conclusion let us note that having studied the
dependence of X±,. . ., XN on the probabilities
a1,. . ., aN, which depend on the future state of the
environment (weather, the presence of predators,
etc.), it is theoretically possible to solve the reverse
problem — the prediction of the state of the envi-
ronment according to the nature of the development
and reproduction of certain biological species.
For example, weakly expressed diapausing means
a very low winter death rate of insect pupas, while
strong expressed diapausing means a high one. The
winter death rate among insect pupas is caused by
a very insignificant number of factors. And when
specific ecological research makes it possible to con-
sider the influence of biotic factors, small diapaus-
ing may be connected only with hydrometerological
conditions of the existence of the species.
The indicated approach to predicting the states
of natural ecosystems is very effective for the follow-
ing reasons:
—The phenomenon of adaptation of biological
species to changes in the sphere of habitation
among mass species is expressed clearly enough.
For example (see work [16]), frequently
observable fluctuations of the proportions of
diapausing species from 1% to 20% of the
total insect population.
—The obtainable prediction is of a regional
nature, since it is constructed on the basis of
the behavior of the population, which geo-
graphically is usually entirely localized.
—The proposed method of prediction is very eco-
nomical, since data on the behavior of the
population can be obtained from already exist-
ing stationary observation points. In practice
the expenditures on the organization of this
type of system of tracking promise to be very
insignificant.
—The information being accumulated intensively
at the stationary point will undoubtedly be a
powerful stimulator of further fundamental
ecological studies on the dynamics of species
of forest insects and its connection with the
state of the sphere of habitation.
In conclusion we once again turn our attention
to the following thesis: in every real complex bio-
logical system there is a small number of compara-
tively simple subsystems, through the observance of
whose dynamics it is possible to compile a predic-
159
-------
tion of the state of the entire system. Let us call
such systems the basic dynamic components of the
complex system.
THE OPTIMUM SYSTEM FOR KEEPING
TRACK OF THE SIZE OF POPULATIONS
OF FOREST PESTS
The ecological and economic significance of this
monitoring is important because outbreaks of mas-
sive reproductions of the indicater populations occur
on areas of several tens of millions of hectares.
There has been developed an optimum system of
monitoring the density of populations of conifer and
leaf boring insects (A. I. Vorontsov, G. E. Insarov
and others). Relying on the mathematical apparatus
and modern computers, this monitoring is designed
for operational decision-making on controlling the
indicated populations.
Such a system is proposed for keeping track of
the density of the population of forest insects,
which makes it possible to concentrate efforts on
the direct taking of probes at a small and econom-
ically justifiable number of stationary observation
points. In this way the effectiveness of the work of
forest protection workers is significantly increased.
The decision to prescribe or not prescribe forest
insect pest control on the territory of any economic
unit is made on the basis of information on the
state of the entire population in the territory sur-
rounding the unit. This model of monitoring is con-
structed on the basis of data about the spatial and
time distribution of the following types of insects:
—Green oak leaf roller moth (Moscow Oblast,
1962-71, GDR, 1957).
—Stellate web-spinning sawflies (Krasnoyarskiy
Kray, 1961).
—Gypsy moth (European part of the RSFSR,
1891, 1924, 1938-39, 1946, 1954, 1956).
—Malacosoma distria Hbn. (Minnesota, USA,
1949-54).
—Choristoneura fumiferana Kelm. (Quebec,
Canada, 1946-57).
The economic criterion determining the recom-
mended policy of pest control in a region consisted
in minimizing the overall average expenditures per
annum per hectare of the territory under examina-
tion. These expenditures K(s, g) were composed of
three components:
—W(s, g) is the average loss in territory and
time from the pest and control of it (we have
in mind the environmental pollution accom-
panying chemical control);
-is the cost for taking probes on one
fixed layer; b is the cost of a probe on one
hectare) ;
— C(g, s) is the cost of sending the data to a
computer center and their processing.
The variables s and g characterize the territorial
geometry of monitoring and should be optimized
(see in more detail below).
The greatest difficulty in computing the func-
tional K(s,g)=W(s,g)+kb
—
+C(s,g)
—kb
100s2
hectare (k is the proportion of the area of the
region occupied by forest and belonging to a
consists in calculating the summand W(s, g) which
we are setting about to analyze.
The damage from forest pests consists of two
components, M1 and M2, where Ma is the damage
from the loss of weight increase, and M2 is the loss
from desiccation (which occurs in one case out of
100, when the wood is entirely eaten). Here the
average loss U(Y) is calculated by the formula:
U(Y) = (1 -0.01 y)M1 + 0.01 yM2,
where y is the probability of 100% eating taking
into consideration the limitation of food, and Y is
the density of the pest population in the number of
eggs /1 00 g of fresh leaves (or per unit length
of the branch, etc.). Biological practice makes it
possible to examine the density of the population
Y(T) over the land surface as a two-dimensional
random field.
There is a_ critical density of the population Yc
such that if Y=sYC) a decision is made on prescrib-
ing chemical control. If T is the cost of control per
hectare, then Yc is defined as the root of the equa-
tion:
U(YC)=T.
In determining the magnitude of T, besides direct
expenditures for control (the cost of chemicals,
flying time, work force, etc.), the harmful effects
of chemical control on the forest ecology are taken
into consideration. The consideration of all these
factors may make considerable adjustments in the
distributional representation of chemical control of
forest pests as a profitable economic measure hi
all instances.
Let us examine in more detail the method of cal-
culating the magnitude of U(Y). If we examine the
value of Y(t) in the layer, i.e., for example, in
the planting of a definite age and composition, this
will be expressed mathematically in the fact that
the correlation function depends only_ on distance,
then the field of deviations X(t) = Y(t) -M [Y(T)]
will be homogeneous and isotropic, i.e.,
cor
The autocorrelation function of the field X(T)
+ A(T), where A(T) is the field of errors of
160
-------
measurement (it is believed that at different points
they are not correlated), was selected in the form:
f 1. T = 0
K(r)= -{ D exp( - «T)
where £ = 0.00052, X2 is the dispersion of the field
of errors, D is the dispersion of the field X(t).
The autocorrelation function for X(t) was selected,
correspondingly, in the form exp (— er). These
functions conveniently approximated the available
factual data.
Let us briefly describe the system of tracking.
The entire territory on which outbreaks of massive
reproduction are possible is broken down into basic
squares with a side of s km, at the center of which
systematic measurements of the density of the
population are made. Each basic square is broken
down into 25 additional squares. At every moment
in time the evaluation of the deviation from the
mathematical expectation of density of the popula-
tion at the center of each additional square is
obtained as a function of the corresponding devia-
tions measured at the same moment in time at the
center of the basic squares surrounding the basic
square in which the additional square being exam-
ined is located. The basic squares, the measure-
ment at whose center is used for evaluating the den-
sity of the population for the given additional
square, should all together form a square consisting
of an odd number of basic squares; the central
basic square contains the given additional square.
If we number the basic squares with the pairs of
numbers (k, p), k= 1,..., Cg; p= 1 ,... , Cg, and
the additional squares with the pairs of numbers
(r, q), r= -2,. . . , 2, q= -2,. . ., 2, then given
fixed Cg and s the evaluations for the field X(t)
at the centers of the additional squares are obtained
in the form:
c c
v,g \^g
X(S, g)r,q= 2 2 a(s,g) r, ,; k, p ' Xkjp.
k=lp=l
The coefficients a(s, g) are chosen on the basis of
the principle of maximum likelihood.
The selection of the side of the basic square s
and the number C2g of the basic squares used for
the evaluation, is made on the basis of the above-
mentioned criterion of optimality, proceeding from
the minimization of the average damage caused to
forestry. The numerical treatment of the examined
model, which was carried out by G. E. Insarov [12]
on the BESM-6 computer, showed that the optimum
network of the system for keeping track of the den-
sities of forest pest populations should be the fol-
lowing: the observation centers should be located
at the center of basic squares with a side of 64 km,
while the magnitude of the parameter g should be
four.
The proposed system of calculating conifer and
leaf boring insects makes it possible to sharply
increase the accuracy of the calculation while sig-
nificantly decreasing its total cost.
CONCLUSION
Thus, the proposed system for keeping track of
the density of forest insect populations makes it
possible to concentrate our efforts on the direct
taking of probes at a small, economically justifiable
number of stationary observation points and thereby,
significantly increase the effectiveness of the work
of forest protection workers. The decision on pre-
scribing or not prescribing forest insect pest control
on the territory of an economic unit is made on the
basis of information on the entire population from
previous years and operational information obtained
from the territory surrounding the unit.
The application of the developed system of cal-
culating the conifer and leaf boring insects on areas
of outbreaks of massive reproduction will create
new prospects for centralized forest protection.
REFERENCES
1. I. W. Forrester, World Dynamics, Cambridge, Mass.,
Wright Press, 1971.
2. D. H. Meadows et al., The Limits of Growth, New
York, Universe Book, 1972.
3. W. Leontief, Input-Output Economics, New York, Ox-
ford University Press, 1966.
4. K. Lankaster, Mathematical Economics, Moscow, Sov.
radio, 1972.
5. A. I. Nicholson, "The Balance of Animal Populations,"
I. Anim. Ecol., 2(1932), pp. 132-178.
6, M. P. Hassel, G. C. Varley, "New Inductive Popula-
tion Model for Insect Parasites and Its Bearing on
Biological Control," Nature, 223 (London, 1969), pp.
1133-1137.
7. K. E. F. Watt, "A Mathematical Model for the Effect
of Densities of Attached and Attacked," Canad. But.,
91 (1959), pp. 129-144.
8. M. Uil'yamson [Williamson], The Analysis of Bio-
logical Populations, Moscow, Mir, 1975.
9. M. Ya. Antonovskiy, S. M. Semenov, [On the Problem
of Stability of Mathematical Models of the Entomo-
fauna] (in press).
10. R. S. Ushatinskaya, "Summer Diapause and Second
Hibernation of the Colorado Beetle (Leptinotarsa
decemlineata Say.) in Transcarpathia," Proceedings of
the USSR Academy of Sciences, 140 (1961), pp.
1189-1191.
11. G. G. Yirkovskiy, "Physiological Characteristics of
the Winter Dormancy and Reactivization of the Colo-
rado Beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata Say.) Depend-
ing on the Conditions of the Environment," Period-
icity of the Individual Development of Insects, Mos-
cow, Nauka, 1969, pp. 140-167.
12. G. E. Insarov, Calculation of the Size of Populations
of Conifer and Leaf Boring Forest Pests, Candidate's
dissertation, Moscow, 1975.
161
-------
13. A. I. Vorontsov, N. A. Kashkina, "Outbreak of Mas-
sive Reproduction of the Red Pine Sawfly on the
Khoperskiy Reserve," Works of the Khoperskiy State
Reserve, 4 (1961), tip. MLTI, Moscow.
14. A. S. Danilevskiy, "On Conditions of Perennial Dia-
pause Among Lepidoptera," Ent. obozreniye, 31
(1951), pp. 386-392.
15. S. M. Semenov, The Influence of Contingency of the
Environment on the Development of . Biological
Organisms (in press).
16. F. N. Semvskiy, "The Effect of Segmentation of Prog-
eny According to Duration of Diapause," collection of
works of Moscow Forest Engineering Institute, Prob-
lems of Forest Protection, 15 (Moscow, 1967).
17. D. Cohen, "A Theoretical Model for the Optimal
Timing of Diapause," Am. Nat., 104 (1970), pp.
389-400.
18. R. S. Lewontin, D. Cohen, "On Population Growth
in a Randomly Varying Environment," Nat. Acad.
Sci., Proc., 62 (1969), pp. 1056-1060.
19. A. S. Monchkuskiy, "Ecological Factors and Principles
of Their Classification," Journal of General Biology,
6 (1962), pp. 37-52.
162
-------
SYMPOSIUM II PARTICIPANTS
USSR
Yuri Antonievich Izrael
Project Leader — Soviet Side
FILIPPOVA, DR. L. M.
Sr. Researcher, Institute of Applied Geophysics
Main Administration of Hydrometeorological
Service of the USSR
Pereulok Pavlika Morozova, 12
Moscow 123376 USSR
GERASIMOV, ACAD. I. P.
Institute of Geography
USSR Academy of Sciences
Leninskiy Prospekt, 14
Moscow V-71 USSR
IZMEROV, PROF. N. F.
Doctor-Hygienist
Institute of Work Hygiene and Occupational
Illness
USSR Academy of Medical Sciences
Solyanka, 14
Moscow Zh-240 USSR
KAZAKOV, DR. Y. Y.
Main Administration of Hydrometeorological
Service of the USSR
Pereulok Pavlika Morozova, 12
Moscow 123376 USSR
LEMESHEV, PROF. M. Y.
Section Chief
Central Economic-Mathematics Institute
Moscow USSR
MOLCHANOV, PROF. A. M.
Director, Puschino Computer Research Center
USSR Academy of Sciences
Puschino-na-Oke
Moscow USSR
NAZAROV, DR. I. M.
Deputy Chief, Institute of Applied Geophysics
Main Administration of Hydrometeorological
Service of the USSR
Pereulok Pavlika Morozova, 12
Moscow 123376 USSR
NOVOZHILOV, MR. V. G.
Assistant Director
Foreign Relations Administration
Main Administration of Hydrometeorological
Service of the USSR
Pereulok Pavlika Morozova, 12
Moscow 123376 USSR
PINIGIN, DR. M. A.
Doctor-Hygienist
Institute of General and Communal Hygiene
USSR Academy of Medical Sciences
Solyanka, 14
Moscow USSR
SHITSKOVA, PROF. A. P.
Director, F. F. Erisman Research Institute of
Hygiene
Institute of Hygiene, RSFSR
Ministry of Health
Moscow USSR
SIPAKOV, MR. V. I.
Main Administration of Hydrometeorological
Service of the USSR
Pereulok Pavlika Morozova, 12
Moscow 123 3 76 USSR
SOKOLOV, ACAD. V. Y.
Director, Institute of Evolutional Morphology
& Animal Ecology
USSR Academy of Sciences
Leninskiy Prospekt, 33
Moscow 117071 USSR
UNITED STATES
Roger S. Cortesi
Project Leader — American Side
ALBERT, DR. ROY E.
Deputy Assistant Administrator
for Health and Ecological Effects
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D. C. 20460
BROWN, DR. WILLIAM A.
Executive Secretary
U.S./USSR Joint Committee on Cooperation
in the Field of Environmental Protection
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D. C. 20460
COURTNEY, DR. DIANE
Environmental Toxicology Division
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
163
-------
DOVEL, JR., MR. JOHN A.
,, Symposium II Coordinator
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D. C. 20460
EHLER,- MR. CHARLES N.
Office of Air, Land, and Water Use
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D. C. 20460
ELDER, DR. JOSEPH A.
Health Effects Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
HALEY, DR. THOMAS J|.
Assistant to the Director
National Center for Toxicological Research
Jefferson, Arkansas 72079
HOEL, DR. DAVID G.
National Institute of Environmental Health
Services
Building #18, P.O. Box 12233
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27709
LEE, DR. ROBERT E.
Acting Deputy Director
Health Effects Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
OLLA, DR. BORI
U.S. Department of Commerce
Sandy Hook Laboratory
Highlands, New Jersey 07732
PARK, DR. RICHARD
Associate Professor
Department of Geology
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Troy, New York 12181
STICH, DR. HANS
Cancer Research Center
The University of British Columbia
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
ULVEDAL, DR. FRODE
Office of Health and Ecological Effects
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D. C. 20460
164
6USGPO: 1976 — 657-695/6115 Region 5-11
------- |