-------
B. Geographic Distribution of Sources
The location of iron and steel-producing facilities in the
United States is show in Appendix B. The primary source of
capacity estimaded in this table comes from the American Iron
and Steel Institute's Iron and Steel Works Directory of the
United States and Canada. ' Locations of these facilities
were determined from the Dun and Bradstreet Metal-Working
147
Directory ' and USGS maps.
Appendix B also shows the estimated cadmium emission rates
from each facility. These estimates were derived by multiplying
the emission factors from Table IV-1 by the production for
each facility type, assuming that all plants operate at the hours
of operation defined by the Department of Commerce as full
operation. It must be emphasized that these emission factors
are average emissions based on national average uses of cad-
mium scrap or on a limited number of stack tests. As such, it
is likely that some over-estimates of emissions result from
some sources and underestimated emissions from others. However,
on the average, these emission estimates probably provide an
adequate basis for the purpose of this analysis.
C. Estimated Ambient Levels
Estimates of annual concentrations of cadmium from iron and
steel manufacturing are complicated by the large size of inte-
grated mills and their wide variation in size. Large inte-
grated mills can cover hundreds of acres and may have many
stacks. Mini-mills, or scrap reprocessing facilities with a
low number of small electric arc furnaces, may cover only a
few acres and have few stacks. Due to a lack of information on
the physical size of all the facilities, it was assumed that
all stacks were located together. In addition, conservative (i.e.,
conditions not conducive to good dispersion) assumptions were
27
-------
made concerning stack characteristics. All stacks were assumed
to have the characteristics as shown on Table IV-2. The
flowrate assumed for the iron and steel stacks is an average
figure for all types of units. The net effect of these
assumptions is to overestimate the air quality impact of the
facilities to some unknown degree.
Based on the stack conditions shown in Table IV-2 and the
results of a CRSTER model run (with Dallas/Fort Worth meteorology)
for a few selected distances from the source, a regression equation
was developed which estimates the concentration resulting from a
1.0 g/sec emission rate at any distance. From iron and steel
plants, the equation developed was:
LnY - 1.71 (InX) - 2.35 (1/X) + 3.19 (1)
where: Y is the concentration (ng/m ) caused by an emission
rate of 1.0 g/sec of cadmium and X is the distance from the
source to the receptor point (Km). This equation has a co-
efficient of determination of greater than 0.99 as a predictor
of ambient concentrations computed by CRSTER run.
The emission rate for each plant was multiplied by the
computed concentration ratio to provide and estimate of con-
centration at any distance. Modelling results were not carried
out beyond 20 km due to the questionable validity of this type
of dispersion modelling beyond these distances.
Current monitoring programs are not designed to measure
maximum impacts of point sources such as iron and steel mills.
However, some indication of the plausibility of both the modelling
techniques and the emission estimates can be made by comparing
measured levels in areas with major iron and steel facilities with
the concentrations predicted by the modelling technique.
28
-------
TABLE IV-2
ASSUMED STACK CHARACTERISTICS
FOR IRON AND STEEL MILLS
Stack Height 100 feet
Temperature 250°F
Diameter 8 feet
Flow 125,000 cfm
29
-------
Ambient cadmium levels can vary greatly from year to year
the little data available shown (Table IV-3) that annual average
levels from five to 10 ng/m are not uncommon. Of course, in
these cities, the observed levels cannot be attributable solely
to iron and steel mills since other sources are quite likely
present. Estimated annual cadmium levels from iron and steel
mills developed in this study using the technique described
above are also five to ten ng/m . This suggests that, although
very conservative assumptions were used, the estimated con-
centrations from iron and steel mills are reasonable. However,
the actual degree of precision of these predicted levels cannot
be determined reasonably.
D. Population Exposed
Table IV-4 shows an estimate of the population exposed to
cadmium concentrations greater than 0.1 ng/m and the estimated
average concentration to which each of the exposed populations
is subjected. The regional breakdown shown on Table IV-5 is based
on EPA regions as shown on Figure IV-1. As discussed in Section III,
these estimates were obtained by super-imposing the modelled
ambient concentrations caused by emissions from iron and steel
mills on the distribution of population.
As would be expected, both the largest number of people exposed
and the highest average exposures are in EPA Regions III, IV, and
V. This is due to the large concentration of integrated steel
mills in the Pittsburgh, Birmingham, and Gary areas, respectively.
Table IV-5 shows a breakdown of population by exposure level.
As described in the methodology section, care must be used in in-
terpreting the results of this table due to the potential for
exposure caused by several sources. As explained in the meth-
odology section and Appendix A, the results on Table IV-5 should
30
-------
TABLE IV-3
MEASURED CADMIUM LEVELS IN CITIES
CONTAINING IRON AND STEEL MILLS
Annual
Cits
East Chicago, IN
Ashland, KY
Youngstown, OH
Cleveland, OH
Allentown, PA
Bethlehem, PA
B (ng/irr')
4.6
6
5.6
8.8
13.4
6.8
Year
1974
1974
1970
1970
1974
1973
b/
a/
b/
Source: Reference 16.
Data reported for the latest year measurements are
available.
31
-------
TABLE IV-4
ESTIMATE OF POPULATION EXPOSED
TO CONCENTRATIONS > 0 .1 ng/m3
FROM IRON AND STEEL MILLS
Average
Population
Region
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Exposure
0.
1.
2.
2.
1.
1.
1.
-
1.
0.
(ng/m )
4
4
7
8
5
5
2
.2
.7
liu peopj-e;
93
1,649
4,543
1,611
8,710
1,575
108
778
833
TOTAL
1.8
19,900
32
-------
TABLE IV-5
ESTIMATE OF CUMULATIVE POPULATION EXPOSED TO SPECIFIED
CADMIUM CONCENTRATIONS FROM IRON AND STEEL MILLS
(10 people)
Region Annual Concentration (ng/m )
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
>10
0
0
52
177
143
0
0
0
0
0
>5
0
49
137
341
339
29
0
24
15
0
> 1
0
470
1,965
578
1,852
521
23
176
161
33
>0.1
93
1,649
4,543
1,610
8,710
1,575
108
224
774
833
33
-------
be interpreted as the population exposed to a concentration
greated than or equal to that specified from at least one
source. As such, the total population estimated is accurate,
but the distribution has some bias towards the lower concentration
levels.
Appendix B shows the population exposed to individual sources,
34
-------
SECTION V
MUNICIPAL INCINERATORS
A. Introduction
This section estimates the population exposed to cadmium
emitted from municipal incinerators.
Cadmium emissions from incinerators originate from the com-
bustion of cadmium-containing waste materials. These waste mate-
rials are plastics which contain cadmium as a stablizer, cad-
mium-plated materials, nickel cadmium batteries, and materials
painted with cadmium-based pigments.
Cadmium is released from incinerators due to its low boiling
point (765°C) and the considerable higher ( > 1,400° C) tempera-
tures characteristic of incinerator combustion. The estimated
cadmium emission factors for incinerators are shown in Table V-l.
TABLE V-l
CADMIUM EMISSION FACTORS17/
Emission Factor (Ibs/ton of refuse)
Controlled
_2
Best Judgement 1.2x10
Maximum 1.0xlO~
-4
Minimum 6.0x10
A large amount of variability among incinerators in emissions can
be expected because of variations in input feed rate, feed
35
-------
composition, combustion temperature (and other operating con-
ditions) , and control equipment efficiency. This variability
cannot be taken into account in this type of analysis.
B. Geographic Distribution of Sources
Appendix C lists the locations and capacities of municipal
incinerators analyzed in this study. The primary source of this
18/
capacity data is Incinerator and Solid Waste Technology. ' The
facilities were located by street address through a telephone
survey of each town and city. Street addresses were translated
into latitude and longitude coordinates from detailed USGS maps
(seven and a half minute quadrangles) for integration with the
population data.
Appendix C also shows the estimated cadmium emissions from
each incinerator. The emissions shown are simply the product of
the "best judgement" emission factors and daily capacity figures.
As previously mentioned, wide variation in these estimates can be
expected due to variation in cadmium feed and control efficiency.
C. Estimated Ambient Levels
Estimates of ambient levels due to cadmium emissions from
incinerators were based on the results of CRSTER runs using
Dallas/Fort Worth meteorology. Four combinations of stack
height and flow rate were used to represent the range of current
proactice. Table V-2 shows the stack parameters used in this
analysis. The data in Table V-2 are based on engineering judge-
ment; it is recognized that considerable divergence from these
assumptions may be possible.
As in the case of the iron and steel analysis, the equations
relating ambient concentrations to distance are based on the
CRSTER runs. These equations extend the CRSTER results to cover
36
-------
TABLE V-2
ASSUMED STACK PARAMETERS
FOR MUNICIPAL INCINERATORS
Incinerator
Size
(tons/day)
>1,000
300-1,000
150-300
<150
Stack
Height
(ft.)
125
125
50
50
Temperature Diameter
(°F) (ft)
250
250
250
250
12
3
2
Flow
(acfm)
210,000
50,000
25,000
5,000
37
-------
all distances of interest. The equations developed are shown
below:
For capacities of 1,000 tons/day
LnY = -1.58 (InX) - 3.05 (1/X) + 2.78
(1)
For capacities between 300 and 1,000 tons/day
LnY = -1.75 (InX) - 2.07 (1/X) + 3.26 (2)
For capacities between 150 and 300 tons/day
LnY = -1.60 (InX) - 0.57 (1/X) + 3.16 (3)
For capacities less than 150 tons/day
LnY = -1.53 (InX) - 0.05 (1/X) + 3.04
(4)
where: Y is the concentration (ng/m ) caused by an emission of
1.0 g/sec of cadmium and X is the distance to the receptor point
(km) .
These equations all had a coefficient of determination
greater than 0.99.
Concentrations caused by each plant were computed by multiply-
ing the plant emission rate in grams/second by the concentration
resulting from a 1 gram/second emission rate. As with the iron
and steel mills, modelling results were not carried out beyond 20
km.
Very high cadmium concentrations were computed from some in-
cinerators using this techniques. The relatively low stack heights,
typical of many urban incinerators, lead to low plume rise and very
high ( > 100 ng/m ) localized concentrations. These high concen-
trations occur very near ( < 1.5 km) the source but drop off
quickly so that within 5 km of the source they are down to less
3
than 1 ng/m . Most incinerators are located in urban areas
where there are multiple smaller sources of cadmium probably
38
-------
distributed in a non uniform spatial pattern. Existing monitoring
programs, therefore, do not provide an adequate basis to judge,
even qualitatively, the precision of these modelling results.
D. Population Exposed
Table V-3 shows the estimate of the population exposed to
cadmium concentrations greater than 0.1 ng/m originating from
incincerators and the average concentration to which each person
is exposed. The regional breakdown shown on Table V-3 based on
EPA regions.
The greatest number of people exposed and the highest aver-
age concentration are in EPA Region II, which includes New York
and Pennsylvania. Each state has a large number of incinerators
located in high density urban areas (New York City and Phila-
delphia) . Region V has the second highest number of people ex-
posed. In this region, the average concentration is much lower
than in Region II. This is due primarily to the more dispersed
nature of a smaller number of incinerators located in high density
areas (Chicago). The opposite situation occurs in Region VI
where a relatively small number of people (one million) are
exposed, but the average concentration is high.
Table V-4 shows a breakdown of population exposure by level.
As described in the methodology section, care must be used in
interpreting these data. As the average exposure level decreases
the population exposed increased very quickly, as does the degree
of multiple counting. This happens because the concentrations
decrease from their maximum rather slowly and concentrations above
the 0.1 ng/m can occur at distances out to 20 km and beyond.
39
-------
TABLE V-3
ESTIMATE OF POPULATION EXPOSED
TO CADMIUM CONCENTRATIONS >0.1 ng/nf
FROM MUNICIPAL INCINERATORS
Region
1
2
3
4
5
Average
Exposure (ng/ro3)
Population
(103 people)
8
9
10
6.1
11.4
4.6
4.0
5.4
10.4
3.3
3.4
6,571
15,163
8,742
2,995
12,501
1,122
1,760
173
TOTAL
7.2
49,026
40
-------
TABLE V-4
ESTIMATE OF CUMULATIVE POPULATION EXPOSED TO SPECIFIED
CADMIUM CONCENTRATIONS FROM MUNICIPAL INCINERATORS
(10 people)
Region Annual Concentration (ng/m )
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
>10
409
336
369
31
458
59
0
3
0
0
>5
1,209
3,319
1,390
390
2,252
310
133
36
0
0
>1
4,762
11,697
5,363
2,315
8,182
906
1,022
128
0
0
>
6
15
8
2
12
1
1
0.1
,570
,163
,742
,995
,501
,122
,760
173
0
0
41
-------
At these distances, the areas of influence of many incinerators
will overlap due to their proximity to each other in urban
locations, and thus, include large proportions of densely
populated urban areas.
Appendix C lists the population exposed to each municipal
incinerator.
42
-------
SECTION VI
PRIMARY NON-FERROUS SMELTERS
A. Introduction
Cadmium is found in significant quantities combined with zinc
and to a much lesser degree, with lead and copper. The source of
cadmium emissions from all smelters is basically the same. During
high temperature pyrometallurgical processing cadmium, which
has a lower boiling point than other metals, is vaporized and
released. The differences in cadmium emissions among the primary
smelters are briefly discussed below.
The amount of cadmium released into the atmosphere varies for
different zinc production processes. The pyrometallurgical pro-
cess used at older plants (of which only three are still in existence)
first roasts the ore at temperatures between 900 and 1,000°C to
drive off S0_ and produce a concentrate. Following this operation,
the ore is sintered to provide a product which is easier to handle
and retort. The final step is the reduction of zinc oxide to
zinc in a retort.
Both the roasting and sintering steps appear to have the
highest potential for cadmium emissions. One recent report,
however, indicates that due to an excess of oxygen, close
temperature control (900-1,000 C) , and the high efficency of
existing air pollution control, little cadmium is emitted from
the roaster. This hypothesis is supportable.3/
l' In all existing zinc smelter, the SO«-rich offgas from the
roaster goes to a sulfuric acid plant. Since cadmium oxide
is soluble in sulfuric acid, the recovered acid should show
high cadmium levels if large amounts of cadmium are leaving
the roaster. Cadmium levels reported in the recovered acid
are quite low.19/
43
-------
Sintering operations appear, therefore, to be the primary cadmium
emission point.
Since electrolytic operations use concentrate directly from
the roasting operation and do not subject the concentrate to
elevated temperatures, there appears little potential for cadmium
emissions. Thus, cadmium emissions from this process are assumed
to be zero for this analysis.
Cadmium emissions from lead and copper smelting result from
similar high temperature such as sintering operations. Cadmium
is present in most lead ores and some copper ores, and is released
during high temperature processing.
Table VI-1 shows the estimated emission factors for primary
smelters which are considered to be upper bound estimates. This
is especially true for primary zinc smelting where the data are
based only on one plant which was operating relatively inefficiently
(i.e., with high zinc losses).
B. Geographic Distribution of Sources
Table VI-2 shows the location of the primary smelters re-
viewed in this analysis. General location and capacity data were
obtained from various EPA and industry reports; -'^*-' an(j specific
locations were determined from USGS maps.
C. Estimated Ambient Levels
The annual levels of cadmium due to smelters were not esti-
mated for two reasons. First, the estimates of emissions from
any particular source due both to stack and operating character-
istics are more variable than for any other source. Second, the
terrain around many smelters is extremely rough; thus, generalized
source modelling results under these circumstances are difficult
to interpret.
44
-------
TABLE VI-1
EMISSION FACTORS FOR PRIMARY SMELTERS
(Pounds of Cadmium/Ton of Product)
I/
Smelter Type
Zinc
Lead
Copper
Cadmium
Minimum
1.43
5.20x10
-2
Maximum
2.96
2.60x10
Best Judgement
2.50
-1
1.10x10
7.00x10 2
25.00
2.90x10"
30.50
1.50x10
28.00
-ib/
-3
a/ controlled level may be as low as 5.20x10^ Ibs/ton of product.
-3
b/ Controlled level may be as low as 7.00x10" Ibs/ton of product
45
-------
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47
-------
TABLE VI-3
MEASURED CADMIUM LEVELS NEAR PRIMARY SMELTERS
a/
Cit'i
Helena
State
Montana
Concentration
(ng/m3)
15
Year
1971
b/
El Paso
Texas
24
1974
Kellogg
Idaho
247
1975
Jefferson County Missouri
111
1975
a/
b/
SOURCE: Reference 22.
Last year for which data is available,
48
-------
Monitoring data can be used to give a rough approximation
of the ambient levels which occur around smelters. Table VI-3
lists observed atmospheric cadmium levels in areas near smelters.
It is obvious that very high cadmium levels are not uncommon
around smelters. As before, it is difficult to attribute all
the measured cadmium to the smelters. However, due to the lack
of population and industry around most smelters, it is very likely
that most of the measured concentrations are due to smelter
emissions.
To approximate the population exposed to cadmium emissions
from smelters, the population living within 20 km of the smelter
was assumed to be exposed to cadmium levels greater than 0.1 ng/m ,
D. Population Exposed
Table VI-4 shows the estimated population exposed to cadmium
emissions from primary smelters. It is obvious that in comparison
to the preceding sources, fewer people are exposed to emissions
from primary smelters. The distribution of population is very
biased. Two regions (and two plants) account for the majority of
the population exposed.
The low number of people exposed by smelters is due to the
very low population density around the smelters. It appears,
therefore, that while primary smelters are a large source of cad-
mium emissions to the atmosphere, they do not (with the exception
of two plants) expose large numbers of people to these emissions.
However, the exposure levels can be quite high as is evident from
Table VI-3.
49
-------
TABLE VI-4
ESTIMATE OF POPULATION EXPOSED TO CADMIUM
CONCENTRATIONS FROM PRIMARY SMELTERS
(10 people)
Region
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Primary Primary Primary
Zinc Lead Copper
_
_
258
19
100 - 3
- 16
35 -
28 92
- 29
41 17 461
Primary
Cadmium
-
-
100
-
86
41
-
-
-
17
TOTAL
399
80
620
245
50
-------
SECTION VII
SECONDARY SMELTERS
A. Introduction
The recycling of zinc and copper can potentially lead to
emissions fo cadmium due to the cadmium contained in metals. The
high temperatures involved with the melting of the scrap will
release most of the cadmium. The cadmium associated with the metal
will be vaporized and potentially release into the atmosphere.
Table VII-1 shows the assumed emission factors for secondary
smelting. The high degree of control shown is based on the assump-
tion that fabric filters are used for control.
B. Geographic Distribution of Sources
Table VII-2 shows the geographic distribution of secondary
copper and zinc smelters in the United States. Location data were
determined from various trade directories. ' Latitude and
longitude coordinates were obtained from detailed USGS maps.
Information on the size of each smelter was not available.
Accordingly, the assuirrotion was made that all smelters were of
237
"average" size. One reference does indicate a relatively
small size range for these types of smelters. Therefore, the
assumption may be reasonable.
C. Estimated Ambient Levels
Estimates of ambient cadmium levels resulting from emissions
of secondary smelters were based on CRSTER runs using Dallas/
51
-------
TABLE VII-1
EMISSION FACTORS FOR SECONDARY SMELTERS
(Pounds of Cadmium/Ton of Product)
UNCONTROLLED
CONTROLLED
a/
Smelter Best
Type Minimum Maximum Judgement Best Judgement
Zinc 8:OxlO~3 1.4xlO~2
5.0xlO
~4
Copper 2.6
4.0
3.0
3.0x10
-1
a/
Fabric filter assumed.
52
-------
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73
-------
Fort Worth meteorology. Different stack conditions were assumed
for copper and zinc smelters. Table VII-3 shows the assumed
stack conditions.
As in the case of other industries, a regression equation
was developed based on the CRSTER runs. The equations developed
are shown below:
For secondary copper smelters
LnY = -1.57 (LnX) - 0.35 d/X) +3.12
For secondary zinc smelters
LnY 1.75 dnX) _ 2.07 d/X) + 3.26
where: X is the concentration (ng/m ) caused by an emission rate
of one g/sec of cadmium, X is the distance to the receptor point
(Km) .
Concentrations caused by each plant were computed by multiply-
ing the plant emission rate in grams/second, by the concentration
resulting from one g/sec emission rate. As with other industries,
no modelling was carried out beyond 20 Km.
D. Population Exposed
Table VII-4 shows the estimated cumulative population exposed
to specified cadmium concentrations and the average concentration
each person is exposed to. Though there are only very few secondary
copper smelters, the population exposed is high. This is due to
the urban location of the smelters and the high (even when controlled)
emission factor.
54
-------
TABLE VII-3
ASSUMED STACK CONDITIONS FOR
SECONDARY SMELTERS
STACK PARAMETER
SMELTER TYPE
Height (ft)
Temperature (°F)
Flow (ACFM)
Diameter (ft)
Zinc
120
250
40,000
4
Copper
50
250
10,000
2
55
-------
TABLE VII-4
ESTIMATE OF POPULATION EXPOSED TO SPECIFIED
LEVELS FROM SECONDARY SMELTERS (103 People)
Concentration (ng/m )
Smelter
>10 >5 >1 >0.1 Average Exposure
Secondary Copper
296
798 5710 9891
2.3
Secondary Zinc
37
0.47
56
-------
Secondary zinc smelting appears to be an insignificant
source of atmospheric cadmium with few people exposed and very
low emissions. However, it must be pointed out that it was not
possible to take into account the difference in plant sizes. It
is not clear how this would affect the results.
Appendix E shows the estimated population exposed to each
secondary smelter.
57
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APPENDIX A
POPULATION EXPOSURE METHODOLOGY
The population exposure model is used to calculate the
number of people who live within a fixed distance of a specific
set of latitude and longitude. The imputs to the model are the
location of the center point and the radius under consideration.
The data base for the model is the set of population maps that
were constructed from the Medalist data. The center point
corresponds to the smoke stack of a point source polluter. The
radius corresponds to the maximum distance from the stack that
a specific concentration of a pollutant could be found. The
estimate of the radius is determined by the predominant methodology
(in the Dallas Fort Worth data set). The circle drawn around the
point is therefore an overestimate since this, in effect, assumes
every direction from the source is downwind.
Given the imputs, the first step is to identify the map on
which the source is located. This is accomplished by comparing
the latitude and longitude of the source to the set of map bound-
aries. Next, the latitude and longitude of the source are con-
verted to the appropriate map grid point using the same method that
was used to locate the population data on the maps. This, how-
ever, may not fully access the data on the population affected by
the source. If the source is located near a map boundary, the
affected population may be located on up to three additional maps.
If a source is located within 20 kilometers of another map, that
map may also be accessed.
58
-------
After loading the appropriate map file from computer tape
into core and reading the necessary information onto the map
grid, the next step is to construct a coordinate system centered
at the same location since all grids are not the same size.
The grid points at which the source has been located becomes the
origin. The value which is calculated is based on the latitude
of the source. The distance between any point and the origin or
source is therefore easily calculated by triangulation from the
coordinates of that point with the origin.
Each grid cell within 20 kilometers of the source is Sys-
tematically examined. First, the corners of the cell are
located on the coordinate system. With this information, the
total amount of area inside the cell and included within the
selected radius from the source is calculated. The symmetry of
the analysis allows the computer program to actually look only at
the grid blocks that lie in or border the first quadrant. The
values for each of the blocks outside the first quadrant can be
inferred from the results of the first quadrant.
There are five distinct cases encountered when one attempts
to calculate the area of a grid block which is included within
a circle of given radius (see Figure A-l):
The first case encountered is the area of the grid
cell that has the source located at its center and
is larger than the circle enclosed by the selected
radius. Here, a simple approximation is made. The
area included is taken to be the area of the circle
of the given radius divided by the area of the grid
cell to obtain the fraction of the cell included in
the circle. Once the area of the circle exceeds the
area of the grid block, it is assumed that the entire
areas of the grid cell is included within the radius.
59
-------
FIGURE A-l
CASE#1
CASE #2
CASE #3
CASE #4
CASE #5
60
-------
The second case involves grid cells located along
either the x-axis or the y-axis. Here, the area
included is taken to be the arc of the rectangle
defined by the interesection of the radius and the
block boundaries included, plus the area of the
remaining arc defined by the radius. Special
cases occur when the radius intersects the edges
of the grid cells which are perpendicular to the
axis. The general form of the solution remains
the same.
Case three occurs where only one of the vertices
of the cell is included; the area included is the
sum of the area of the enclosed triangle and the
area of the enclosed arc.
Case four occurs when two vertices are included
or all are included. In this case, the area
covered equals the sume of the area of the trap-
ezoid and the area of the enclosed arc.
Case five occurs when three vertices are included.
The area of the cell included equals the area
of the cell minus the area of the excluded tri-
angle plus the area of the included arc.
Once the area of the grid cell which is included in the
exposed area has been calculated, it is divided by the area of
the grid cell yielding the percentage of the area included. In
order to calculate the number of people who live within the in-
cluded area, it is assumed that the population is uniformly
distributed throughout the grid cell. Therefore, the population
affected is the product of the percentage of the area included
times the population of the grid cell. By summing up the pop-
ulation included in all the cells, the total number of people
who live within a given radius of a source can be estimated.
61
-------
By choosing several radii for each source, the number of
people who reside between a given pair of radii can be calculated
by a simple subtraction. Since each radius corresponds to a
specific pollution level, this type of calculation yields an
estimate of the number of people who are exposed to various
concentration levels for a single source.
By summing up the effects of several sources, either by
source type or location, one can gain insight into which type
of source appears to effect the largest number of people. How-
ever, the total number of people exposed may be misleading.
In areas where there are many point sources located close to-
gether, much multiple-counting will occur. (For example, a
person exposed to a given ambient concentration produced
separately by three sources will counted three times). There-
fore, this approach does not give an accurate estimate of
population exposed to specific levels from sources. However,
the model does give an accurate respresentation of total ex-
posure (expressed as concentration per person-year) for use
in linear health models (i.e., those in which one person exposed
to two ng/m is treated the same as two people each exposed to
one ng/m ).
To obtain an estimate of the population exposed to various
concentrations, a slightly different approach is used. The
major difference is that once people are determined to lie with-
in any radius of any plant, they are subtracted from the map.
In other words, no single person is ever counted by more than
one source. In addition, the model is not run source-by-source
as before, but pollution level-by-pollution level. By choosing
several pollution levels and starting with the level that yields
the smallest radius and working out the actual number of people
who are exposed to at least one source at each, a pollution
level can be estimated.
62
-------
This model also has its limitations. Individual source
totals are meaningless since the sources which are run first
will tend to count more people simply because there are more
people initially on the map. There is also no way to arrive
at the total pollutant concentration times person estimate
because no account is made of cumulative effects.
63
-------
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REFERENCES
Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "Sources of Atmospheric
Cadmium," Draft Report to EPA Under Contract No. 68-02-2836,
February 1978.
2/
' Fulkerson, William, et al., Cadmium, The Dissipated Element,
BRNL-NSF-EP-21, January 1973, p. 63.
3// Ibid.
4/
' Fulkerson, op. cit., p. 174.
' Fulkerson, op. cit., p. 6.
' Sargent, Donald, et al., Technical and Microeconomic Analysis
of Cadmium and Its Compounds, EPA 560/3-75-005, June 1975.
Battelle Columbus Laboratories, Determination and Evaluation
Environmental Levels of Cadmium, EPA #68-01-1983, July 13,
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8/
' Deane, Gordon L., Lynn, David A., and Suprenant, Norman F.,
Cadmium: Control Strategy Analysis, EPA #68-02-1337, GCA,
Bedford, Massachusetts, p. 150.
9' Lee, Russell, et al., Single Source (CRSTER) Model, EPA 450/
2-77-013, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, July 1977.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Master Enumeration District List,
Bureau of Census, Technical Documentation, October 1970.
' Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "Economic Impact of
New Source Performance Standards on Sinter Plants," Draft
Report to EPA submitted April 29, 1977.
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Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., op. cit., Reference
#1.
' American Iron and Steel Institute, Directory of Iron and
Steel Works of the United States and Canada, Washington, D.C.,
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' Dun and Bradstreet, Metalworking Directory, 1976, New York.
U.S. Bureau of Census, "Survey of Plant Capacity, 1975," un-
published data, Washington, D.C., April 1977.
88
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' Battelle Columbus Laboratories, op. cit. , Reference #7.
' EEA, op. cit. , Reference fl.
18/
Fenton, R., "Present Status of Municipal Incinerators,"
Incinerators and Solid Waste Technology, J. W. Stephenson,
et al., Ed., ASME, New York, New York, 1975.
19/
Sargent, Donald, et al., op. .cit., Reference #6.
207
International Directory of Mining and Mineral Journal, McGraw-
Hill, New York, New York, 1976.
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' Marketing Economics Key Plants, 1975-76, New York.
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Battelle Columbus Laboratories, op. cit. , Reference #7.
237
Deane, Gordon L., op. cit., Reference #8.
89
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