vvEPA
              United States
              Environmental Protection
              Agency
             Environmental Sciences Research
             Laboratory
             Research Triangle Park NC 27711
EPA-600/4-79-063
October 1979
              Research and Development
Spatial Variability of
Ozone  and Other
Pollutants at
St.  Louis, Missouri
>

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                RESEARCH REPORTING SERIES

Research reports of the Office of Research and Development, U S Environmental
Protection Agency, have been grouped into nine series These nine broad cate-
gories were established to facilitate further development and application of en-
vironmental technology  Elimination of traditional grouping was consciously
planned to foster technology transfer and a maximum interface in related fields
The nine series arej

      1   Environmental  Health Effects Research
      2   Environmental  Protection Technology
      3   Ecological Research
      4   Environmental  Monitoring
      5   Socioeconomic Environmental  Studies
      6   Scientific and Technical Assessment Reports (STAR)
      7   Interagency Energy-Environment Research and Development
      8   "Special" Reports
      9   Miscellaneous Reports

This report has been assigned to the ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING series.
This series describes research conducted to develop new or improved methods
and  instrumentation for the identification and quantification of environmental
pollutants at the lowest conceivably significant concentrations.  It also includes
studies to determine the ambient concentrations of pollutants in the environment
and/or the variance of pollutants as a function of time or meteorological factors.
This document is available to the public through the National Technical Informa-
tion Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161

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                                               EPA-600/4-79-063
                                               October 1979
SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF OZONE AND OTHER POLLUTANTS
             AT ST. LOUIS,  MISSOURI
                        by
                 Thomas R.  Karl
       Meteorology and Assessment Division
   Environmental  Sciences  Research Laboratory
  Research Triangle Park,  North  Carolina  27711
   ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES RESEARCH LABORATORY
       OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
      U.S.  ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
  RESEARCH  TRIANGLE PARK, NORTH CAROLINA 27711

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                                  DISCLAIMER

      This report has been reviewed by the Office of Research and Development,
 U.S.  Environmental  Protection Agency, and approved for publication.   Mention
 of trade names or commercial  products does not constitute endorsement or
 recommendation for use.
     Mr. Karl is a meteorologist in the Meteorology and Assessment Division,
Environmental Sciences Research Laboratory, Environmental Research Center,
Research Triangle Park, N.C. 27711.  He is on assignment from the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.

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                                  ABSTRACT
     A network of 25 aerometric stations was part of the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency's Regional Air Pollution Study (RAPS) in the Greater
St. Louis area.  At these stations ozone (Oo) and various other photochemical
pollutants (NO, NCU, and total hydrocarbons (THC)) as well as carbon
monoxide (CO) were analyzed with respect to their spatial variability.
Data were analyzed for the warm months of the year, April through October
of 1975 and 1976--periods during which high 03 concentrations are common.
The results of these analyses indicate that when 03 concentrations are
high (above 100 ppb) the daily 1-h maximum 0, concentration is highly
dependent upon the location of measurement.  Measurements made at these
times in both urban and rural locations in and around St. Louis were
frequently found to vary by a factor of two and occasionally by a factor
as large as four.   Simultaneous hourly average measurements for each of
the pollutants were correlated across the network of 25 stations.
Rather poor correlations were found for the primary pollutants such as
CO, NO, N02, and THC.   Analyses of normalized fields of pollutant concentrations
suggest that the scavenging of 03 by NO dominates the 03-NOX reaction
cycle before 1000 CDT.

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                                  CONTENTS
Abstract	    iii
Figures	     vi
Tables	    vii
     1.    Introduction	      1
     2.    Conclusions	      2
     3.    Data and Station Sites	'     3
     4.    Procedures and Results	      4
               Some elementary statistics on pollutant concentrations  .      4
               Maximum CU concentrations and the air flow	      6
               Hourly pollutant concentrations and the urban plume.  .  .      7
               Cluster analysis of pollutant concentrations  	      9
     5.    Summary	     14
References	     15

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                                  FIGURES

Number                                                                 Page

  1     Stations of the Regional  Air Monitoring Systems	    17

  2    Annual  total emissions for the St. Louis area.   Diagrams  on
         the right show emissions for 5-km grid squares in  the more
         intense emission areas, while diagrams on the  left are  for
         10- and 15-km grids covering the entire region.  Emissions
         are directly proportional  to the area covered  by each
         asterisk; emissions are specified for the largest  asterisk
         in each of the six diagrams	18

  3    One-H average 0, concentrations and the highest  1-h  Oo concen-
         tration (ppb) between 1300 and 1400 CDT for the study period.   19

  4    Hourly average concentrations of THC (ppm x 10  )
         CO (ppm x 10~]) NO (ppb),  and N02 (ppb) during 0700-0800 CDT.   20

  5    Percentage of the highest 03 concentration in the RAMS for
         individual stations on days of downwind and upwind flow ...   21

  6    Percentage of the highest 03 concentration in the RAMS for
         individual stations on days of high wind speeds (>3.4 m/s)
         and on days of low wind speeds (<2.5 m/s)	    22

  7a.- Normalized concentrations for various pollutants.  03, NO, and
  7f.    N02 concentrations are in ppb.  THC and CO concentrations are
         in ppm.x 10" .  The zero isopleth is indicated on  each  map.     23

  8a.- Diagram for cluster analysis of hourly pollutant concentra-
  8f.    tions and maximum 03 concentrations.  The first correlation
         coefficient inside  each block represents the  similarity of
         the two clusters which are combined into a single  cluster.
         The second correlation coefficient (or first if the second
         is absent) is the minimum correlation coefficient  between any
         two stations of the previously distinct clusters.   The  hour
         for which each cluster analysis is presented is that for
         which the network average concentration was highest	    29
                                     VI

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                                   TABLES

Number                                                                  Page

  1    Percent of Daily Maximum 1-H 63 Concentrations  at Each  Station
         That are Within Given Percentage  Intervals  of the Correspond-
         ing Daily Highest 1-H 03 Concentration in  the Network.   N  is
         the Number of Days of Valid Data  for the Stations When  the
         1-H 03 Concentration at Any RAMS  Station Exceeded 100 PPB.  .      32

  2    Combinations of Stations Whose Concentrations are Most
         Frequently Within 80-100% of the  Highest Daily Maximum  1-H
         03 Concentration in the Network (For Days With Maximum
         Concentration Above 100 PPB).   N  is  the Total  of Days Above
         100 PPB and n is the Number of Days  Which Were Within
         80-100% of These High Concentrations at the Indicated
         Stations	       33
                                    vn

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                                  SECTION 1
                                INTRODUCTION
     Attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for
ozone (Oo) is determined from measurements at fixed monitoring stations.
A number of reports have either directly or indirectly confronted the
problem of attaining the NAAQS for Do with missing or invalid measurements
                   123
at stationary sites '   .  A somewhat similar, but more difficult
problem concerns the representativeness of point measurements.   This can
also be regarded as a missing data problem, pertaining to space instead
of time.
     The spatial variability of 0., and other pollutants affect the
interpretation of output from photochemical and other air quality models.
A question is raised regarding the representativeness of pollutant
concentrations spatially averaged over some grid scale with respect to
the actual concentrations observed in the atmosphere.  Two other questions
then arise. How much do stationary point measurements vary in space in
and around metropolitan areas, and if mobile measurements cannot routinely
be made, where and how many fixed point measurements are necessary to
designate the area of highest 0^ concentrations?  Answers to these questions
                                    4
were recently pursued also by others , using more limited data but with
similar conclusions.
     This study investigates the spatial variability of pollutant concen-
trations, Oo in particular, using data from the Regional Air Monitoring
System (RAMS) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Regional Air
Pollution Study (RAPS) in the St.  Louis, Missouri area.   Using these data
some answers are provided to the questions posed here.

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                                 SECTION 2
                                CONCLUSIONS
     Primary pollutants, such as THC, CO, NO, and N02, require a dense
network of stations in order to describe ambient concentrations across a
metropolitan area such as St. Louis.  Assuming St.  Louis is fairly
typical of many large cities, a much smaller number of carefully selected
sites than the 25 employed in the RAPS would adequately monitor the
maximum 0., concentrations in and around metropolitan areas.  The site
selection process must include climatological information on the local
air flow during meteorological regimes that are favorable for high 03
concentrations.  This information should be used in conjunction with
emission data to locate the stations.  The results  demonstrate that to
measure the regional maximum concentration of 0^, it would be misleading
to rely on 03 monitors located only in and around high emission areas.
     From this study it is concluded that the grid-point output from
photochemical models should have sufficient resolution to resolve the
differences in 03 concentration between areas of both concentrated and
diffuse emissions or areas within and outside the urban plume.  Otherwise,
there is little chance of replicating area-wide maximum 03 concentrations.

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                                 SECTION  3
                           DATA AND STATION SITES
     The RAMS was a network of 25 stations in the St. Louis area (Figure 1).
Wind speed, wind direction, 0~, carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide
(N02), nitric oxide (NO), and total hydrocarbons (THC) were continuously
measured at each station.  Wind speed and direction were measured atop
10-m or 30-m towers, while the effective measurement height for the
                  5
pollutants was 4 m .   During the placement of these sites, domination
of a site by one or more local sources was avoided .
     One-minute averages of the data were automatically recorded on
magnetic tape at RAPS headquarters.  These averages were checked by
various computer programs for erroneous data .   The data were screened
for continuity, relational consistency, and the operational mode of the
instruments.  These data for the months of April  through October of 1975
and 1976 were used to calculate hourly average quantities.   A careful
visual  inspection of the hourly averages helped assure against the
inclusion of fictitious data.
     An extensive emission inventory for the Greater St.  Louis area was
compiled as part of the RAPS-:  Figure 2 illustrates the spatial  variability
of total  (area and point sources) annual emissions of THC,  NO , and CO
                                                             A
in the St.  Louis area.   This diagram is based on  the annual emissions
for 1975;  however, there was no detectable difference when  a similar
diagram was constructed using  1976 emissions.   Variable grid spacing was
used to conduct the actual RAPS emission inventory.   Grid squares were
smallest (1  km) in areas with  concentrated emissions and largest (10 km)
in areas with less concentrated emissions.  In order to visually display
emissions from these variable  grid squares they were apportioned out
over a more uniform grid network.   Grid squares of sizes 5, 10, and 15 km
are contained in Figure 2.  Apportionments were also made for 2.5 grid
squares,  but little additional detail  could be found regarding the
spatial variability of the emissions.
                                     3

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                                 SECTION  4
                           PROCEDURES AND RESULTS
SOME ELEMENTARY STATISTICS ON POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS
     Stations were checked each day for hourly average 03 concentrations in
excess of 100 ppb.  When any of the 25 stations had concentrations this
high the maximum 03 concentrations for all the stations for the given day
were set aside for further study.   A concentration of 100 ppb was considered
high because at the time of this research a new NAAQS for 03 was proposed
at such a level.  A total of 154 days had at least one station exceeding an
03 concentration of 100 ppb.   The daily highest 1-h 03 concentration at
each station was converted to a percentage of the network highest 1-h 03
concentration at any station for each of the 154 days, (this value will  be
referred to as 03MAXP).  For example, if station 107 had a 1-h 03 concen-
tration of 150 ppb on July 14,  which was the highest 1-h 03 concentration in
the RAMS on that day, 100 would be the percentage of the highest 1-h 03
concentration for station 107 on July 14.   All other stations would have a
smaller percentage associated with them for July 14, unless they had missing
hourly average 03 concentrations close to the time of the peak daily maxi-
mum 03 concentration.  Stations were not used with missing hourly averages
within two hours of the estimated time of maximum 03 concentration.
     Table 1 summarizes the results of the 154 days of high 03 concentrations
for each station.  The variability in the daily maximum 03 concentration
from station to station is large.   Ozone monitoring stations that were located
in and near intense emission areas (stations 101 through 107, 111, 112,  113,
119, and 120) were less frequently within 80-100 percent of the highest 1-h
03 in the RAMS than stations outside of these concentrated emission areas.  On
the other hand, several stations located outside intense emission areas on  a
number of days had very low maximum concentrations when compared to maximum
1-h 03 concentrations at other stations.  This is indicated in Table 1 by

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the  large percentage of  time  stations  117,  123,  124, and  125 were only
20-40 percent of the maximum  1-h 03 concentration.  The fact that stations
outside and north of intense  emission  areas  (station 114,  115, 121, and  122)
rarely (1 percent of the time) measured concentrations only 20-40 percent
of the maximum  1-h Oo  concentration can be  attributed to  the fact that  south-
erly winds in St. Louis  are more frequently  associated with high 0^ concentra-
                                   9
tions than any  other wind direction".  This  implies that  stations north  of
St. Louis were  more frequently in the  'urban plume' during days of high  0-
concentrations  than those to  the south.
     The 154-day data set was used in  another way.  The combination of
stations was determined, for  a given number  of stations,  that had the greatest
number of days  with at least  one station's concentration  within 80-100 per-
cent of the highest 1-h 0^ concentration in  the network.  An increase in the
given number of stations did  not necessarily increase the number of days
with at least one station's concentration within 80-100 percent of the maximum
1-h 0~ concentration in the network.    For instance, the combination of the
three stations  101, 102, and  103 had fewer days within 80-100 percent of
the highest 0^  concentration  than did  the single station  114.   In this analysis.
the number of stations was increased until at least 95 percent of the high
03 days could be represented  by a subset of  the 25 RAMS sites.   The process
was terminated  at 95 percent  due to the extensive amount  of computer time
required to search through all possible combinations of stations.
     The results of the search are contained in Table 2.  This table illus-
trates the difficulty in measuring the highest 1-h Oo concentration in a
metropolitan area on days when 0~ concentrations are high.  Even the most
successful combination of stations required  six stations  to come within
80-100 percent  of the maximum 1-h 0^ concentration on 95  percent of the
days when the concentration in the RAMS exceeded 100 ppb.   Notice that these
six stations were all located outside  concentrated emission areas.  This does
not imply that  0-, concentrations fail  to reach high values inside the city.
Figure 3 reveals that the absolute maximum 1-h 0^ concentration in urban areas
is nearly as high as in rural areas.    However the frequency of attaining these
high concentrations is  considerably less in intense emission areas.   This is
apparent by the lower average 1-h 0.,  concentrations at the urban  sites.

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     Figure 4 contains the 0700-0800 CDT hourly average concentrations of
CO, THC, NO, AND N02 for all stations in the RAMS.   For all  pollutants
other than 03, the highest average concentration occurred during 0700-0800 CDT.
Unlike the Figure 3 distribution of average 0., concentrations, Figure 4 shows
that for CO, THC, NO and N02, no station outside the intense emission
areas had higher 1-h average concentrations than stations inside these
areas.
MAXIMUM 03 CONCENTRATIONS AND THE AIR FLOW
     At each station the 03MAXP value was calculated,  and related to daily
network values of wind direction, speed, and steadiness.   The daily network
wind speed was the arithmetic average of 24 individual  hourly speeds, each
of which was the meJian speed for the 25 stations for .each hour.  The daily
network wind direction was the resultant of 24 individual hourly directions,
each of which was the resultant direction for the 25 stations for each hour.
The steadiness of the wind was computed using the following  expression:
                                 S =
where V is the 24-h arithmetic average wind speed (i.e.,  the network speed
as described above), and \TR is the 24-h resultant wind speed (i.e., based on
the network direction described above).  For each station (other than 101)
each resultant wind direction was categorized into an upwind or downwind
quadrant that was defined by the relative location of station 101  (the area
of high emissions).  For example, in Figure 5 if the resultant wind direction
was between 310° and 40°, station 105 was considered downwind of station 101,
and if the wind was between 130° and 220°, it was classified as an upwind day.
The network wind speed was categorized as high (>3.4 m/s), medium (2.5-3.4 m/s),
or low (<2.5 m/s).   These categories were determined so that each had an
equal number of days.  At each station the 03MAXP value was calculated for
high and low wind speeds and for days of upwind or downwind flow.

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      Figures  5  and  6  depict  the  relationships  between  the wind  (direction and
speed, respectively) and the location of the 03 maximum in  the RAMS.   As  the
distance from the intense emission area increases,  there is  a  large  difference
 between  upwind  and  downwind  03 concentrations,  e.g., at the outer sites
 compared to the inner sites  (stations  114 through  125  versus  stations 102
 through  113).   When wind  speeds  were high (Figure  6) a  closer approximation
 to  the network  maximum 03  concentration was  generally  observed at the
 stations away from  concentrated  emission areas  than at  stations in and
 close to these  source areas.  For example, on  days with high wind speed
 the percentages  of  the network highest CU concentrations typically are in
 the 60's at stations  in the  vicinity of the  high emissions area, but are
 often in the 70's (some 80's) at more  distant  stations.  Therefore, on
 days  with  high  CU concentrations  (>100 ppb)  and relatively strong wind
 speeds the highest  03 concentrations are not likely to  be found near
 intense  emission areas.  For low wind  speeds there is a better chance
 that  the highest Oo concentration in a metropolitan area is located
 closer to  the intense emission areas than for  high wind speed days.  A
 specific example of this occurred on October 1  and 2,  1976.  The lowest
 wind  speeds during  the entire period of study were reported on these
 days  and the highest  03 concentrations were  all in or near concentrated
 emission areas.
      The steadiness of the wind  was also classified into three categories
 and related to  the  03MAXP  values.  The steadiness of the wind did not
 appear to  have  much significance as an indicator of which type of site
 would be representative of the maximum 03 concentration in the RAMS.
 This  was determined by inspection of various contingency tables and t-tests.
 HOURLY POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS  AND THE URBAN  PLUME
      The network median concentration  for each  of the  five pollutants
 THC,  CO,  NO, N02, and 03 was calculated for  the four time periods, 0700-
 1000-1100, 1300-1400,  and  1600-1700 CDT, based  on all  available measurements.
 These network median  concentrations were then  subtracted from the corres-
 ponding  1-h average concentrations at  each station and categorized
 according  to a  network wind  direction which  was determined in the following
 manner.   On  each day  for  each of the four 1-h  periods  of interest the

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network wind direction  was classified into one of three sectors, 30°-150°
(E), 150°-270° (SSW), and 270-30° (NNW).  For each hourly period of
interest, the network wind direction was based on up to 125 hourly wind
measurements (when none were missing), the hour of interest and the four
hours previous at each of the 25 RAMS sites.   To be classified into one
of the three specified direction sectors 75 percent of the wind directions
had to fall within a single sector with a speed exceeding 1.5 m/s.  For
each pollutant and time period of interest, the concentration deviations
from the network median were then averaged over all the days of identical
wind direction sectors.
     The decision to use five hours of data and a minimum wind speed of
1.5 m/s was based en the travel time necessary for the pollution emitted
from the concentrated emission areas to reach the more distant RAMS
sites.  The subtraction of the network median concentration for each of
the three sectors normalizes the concentrations of one sector with
respect to the concentrations of the two other sectors.  This alleviates
the first major difficulty in understanding some of the more subtle
effects of the city on pollutant patterns.  For example, due to the
weather regimes that affect St. Louis, (K concentrations over the entire
network are generally higher with southerly winds than with northerly
     g
winds .  Because of this it is not uncommon to observe higher 03 concentra-
tions at sites south of the city on days of upwind flow as opposed to
downwind flow.
     A second subtraction (or normalization)  was required in order to
normalize concentrations within a sector.  An example of why this was
necessary can easily be given.  Normally CO concentrations are much
higher in and near the city as opposed to stations farther removed.
When the network median CO concentration is subtracted from each station's
CO concentration, the urban stations consistently have concentrations
above the median, regardless of wind direction, and the rural sites
consistently have less than the median CO concentration.  In order to
overcome this effect the deviation of a station's pollutant concentration
from the network median concentration, after being averaged for each one
of the three wind direction sectors, was subtracted by the average of

                                     8

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the deviations from the network median concentration of the two other wind
sectors.  The net result is a normalized field of concentrations repre-
senting the mean departure from the normalized concentration fields of the
two other wind sectors.  These concentrations are plotted on Figure 7 for
the four time periods of interest.
     Figure 7a depicts higher THC concentrations downwind of the city
for all time periods with winds from the SSE-W sector*.  Figure 7b
illustrates that the urban plume concept, at least for mean conditions,
applies even for a pollutant such as CO.  This pollutant, which has
considerable spatial variability, shows consistent patterns of higher
concentrations downwind of source areas.  Figure 7c depicts higher
concentrations of NO downwind of the city during the early morning and
late afternoon, but during other times around mid-day such a pattern is
not readily apparent.   This is at least partially attributable to the
very low NO concentrations, not infrequently near the noise level  of the
instrument, that occur during these hours.   Figure 7d is very much
similar to Figures 7a and 7b in that higher than normal NOo concentrations
occur downwind of the city's intense emissions areas throughout the day.
In Figure 7e,  03 concentrations were lower than normal  downwind of the
city until approximately 1000 CDT, but after 1000 CDT,  03 concentrations
were higher than normal in areas downwind of the city.   The lower 0^
concentrations that occur before 1000 CDT are attributed to the scavenging
of Oo by NO since patterns of NO and Oo were similar but opposite in
sign for the period 0700-0800 CDT.  Apparently, after 1000 CDT the
energy of the solar radiation and the subsequent reaction time necessary
to provide 0-,  are sufficient to overcome this phenomenon.  The changeover
time from lower than normal Oo concentrations downwind  of the city to
higher than normal  concentrations during 1000-1100 CDT  is confirmed by
Figure 7f for other wind directions.
* Figures 7a and 7e do not contain the pollutant patterns for the W-NNE
  or the NNE-SSE wind sectors since these wind directions had nearly the
  same type of patterns as did the SSE-W wind sector.

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CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS
     In order to understand the spatial variability of pollutant concen-
trations, it is essential to investigate correlation between concentrations
at various stations.  These correlations can then be reconciled in a
systematic approach through the use of cluster analysis.
     Correlation coefficients were calculated for each pollutant at each
pair of stations.  The correlations were calculated for one of the four
hours 0700-0800, 1000-1100, 1300-1400, or 1600-1700 CDT, depending upon the
hour which had the highest network average concentration.  In order to avoid
inflated correlation coefficients due to the yearly oscillation of pollutant
concentrations, the actual concentrations at each site were subtracted
by their seasonal n.eans before the correlations were run.  Three seasons were
formed, consisting of the months April and May, June through August, and
September and October.  Since the subtractions effectively removed the
yearly oscillation these deviations from seasonal means were then used to
compute the correlation coefficients.
     Cluster analysis was applied to the matrix of correlation coefficients
produced by the interstation correlations.  Cluster analysis is achieved by
combining stations into groups or clusters.  Stations are combined into
a cluster based on the correlation coefficients between the various stations.
Initially, each station can be thought of as a cluster unto itself (a corre-
lation coefficient of unity).  At each step in the clustering technique all
possible combinations of existing clusters are considered.  Only the two
clusters which have the highest average correlation coefficients, based on
the station-to-station correlation coefficients, are combined into a new
cluster.  Once a cluster is formed it cannot be broken apart.  In this
manner clustering continues until all the stations are combined into one
cluster.  Since there are 25 stations this process requires 24 steps to
complete.
     Cluster analysis does not require any assumption regarding the statis-
tical significance of the correlation coefficients.  The use of average
correlation coefficients can be justified because the clustering technique
initially combines stations into a cluster w'lich have "high" correlation

                                     10

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coefficients and works down to "low" correlation coefficients by the final
step.  In this manner averages of correlation coefficients are considered
for only the pairs of stations which have similar correlation coefficients
(i.e. high, medium, or low).  The problem of averaging or combining
correlation coefficients which differ significantly   is then sidestepped.
     Figure 8 contains the results of cluster analysis for the various
pollutants.  For 0^ the cluster analysis is also included for the maximum
daily 1-h 0-, concentration when at least one station reports a concentration
in excess of 100 ppb.  Each of the 24 steps for each pollutant is contained
in Figure 8.  A new cluster is formed at each step represented by the
stations included within the boundaries of the solid block containing corre-
lation coefficients.  The first correlation coefficient is the average
correlation coefficient of all pairs of stations between the previously
distinct clusters.  The second correlation coefficient listed is the minimum
correlation coefficient of any pair of stations between the previously dis-
tinct clusters.
     Figure 8a is for the hour with the highest network average concentration
of CO.   The figure reveals a poor correlation between the RAMS sites with
respect to CO concentrations.   By the sixth step the similarities of any
two clusters is so low that the average variance between any two clusters
is less than 50 percent*.  An inspection of the stations included in
the clusters indicates that they were formed on the basis of local  emissions
around each station, the distance separating the stations, and their orien-
tation with respect to the central urban area of concentrated CO emissions.
Some clusters were created when there was a large disparity in the local
emissions surrounding specific stations in the clusters.  This only occurred
when stations were separated by relatively short distances (see step 6,
Figure 8a).  In other clusters (steps 2 and 16) the local CO emission around
the station and the orientation of the station with respect to major emission
* This calculation and subsequent calculations in this section regarding
  the average variance explained by one cluster for another cluster were
  calculated using the average of the square of the correlation coefficients
  between stations.  The square of the average correlation coefficients
  shown in Figure 8 turns out to be a good approximation to the variance.
                                    11

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areas was more important than the distance separating the station.   The for-
mation of a cluster which is more difficult to explain occurs  at step 18.   It
is unclear why station 105, in an area of intense CO emission, does not cluster
with other nearby stations in concentrated emission areas before it clusters
with stations 104 and 120.  One explanation is that station 120 is  affected
more by a local interstate highway approximately 2 km to the west (Figure  1)
than by the large central area of high emission further east.   This implies
that stations 104, 105, and 120 were oriented east of important emission
areas.
     The emission pattern for THC is remarkably similar to the pattern for
CO, and cluster analyses for these two pollutants also have similarities.
For example, the cluster formed at step 11 in Figure 8b is almost identical
to the cluster formed at step 9 of Figure 8a   Clusters formed at steps 7,
8, 12, and 16 of Figure 8b have identical counterparts on Figure 8a   The
correlation between stations is slightly higher for THC than CO, but
it is also low by the final step.  In fact, if a subset of stations from
the RAMS were desired to explain an average of 50 percent of the variance
in THC concentrations, no less than 16 stations would be required (see step 9,
Figure 8b).
     Cluster analysis for NO and N02 (Figures 8d and 8e) also  reveals poor
correlation coefficients, particularly for NO.  A subset of the RAMS would
require 24 stations for NO and 16 stations for N02 in order to explain an
average of at least 50 percent of the day-to-day variance of the concentra-
tions at each station from the original network.
     The correlations for 03 concentrations during 1300-1400 CDT are quite
high as indicated in Figure 8e.  The clusters formed in this analysis are
closely tied to the orientation of the stations with repsect to major emis-
sions areas as well as the distance between stations.  Clusters formed by
this secondary pollutant are highly related.  Unlike the clusters formed
by the four other pollutants, these clusters suggest that stations  are
representative of areas rather than points.  In Figure 8e step 10 suggests
that a single station could be used to replace most of the stations in and
near the major source areas of urban St. Louis.  Even in areas outside the
city there are a number of clusters with sufficiently high correlation

                                    12

-------
coefficients such that a single station could be used in place of two,
three, or even four stations.  However, in order to employ one station  as
a surrogate for another station the average difference of the 03 concen-
trations between the stations during 1300-1400 CDT must be added to the
surrogate station's concentration during the same hour.
     Figure 8f is important in light of the NAAQS emphasis on maximum
1-h 03 concentrations.  Maximum 1-h 03 concentrations have higher corre-
lation coefficients between stations than average hourly correlations for
the other pollutants, but these correlations fall short in comparison to
average hourly concentrations of 03 during 1300-1400 CDT, the hour with
the network average highest concentration (see Figure 8e).  The formation
of clusters in Figure 8f were closely related to the distance between
stations.  This implies that when maximum 0-, concentrations were relatively
high (low) at specific stations an area of high  (low) maximum 03 concen-
trations surrounded this site, but the correlation coefficients indicate
that this area was not large in size.  A similar result is found in the
analysis of a few days of data during an 0., episode in St. Louis  .
     The information contained in Figure 8f can be used with Table 1  to
expand the list of stations in Table 2 that have concentrations 80-100
percent of the daily highest 1-h 03 concentration in the RAMS.   The six
stations in Table 2; 114, 115, 118, 122, 124, and 125 are in distinct
clusters at step 18 in Figure 8f (initially each station is a cluster unto
itself).  At step 17 station 109 is not included in any of the clusters with
these six stations.   Table 1 indicates that station 109 has the highest
percentage of days within 80-100 percent of the maximum 1-h Oo concentration
of the 19 stations not listed in Table 2.   The seven stations 109, 114, 115,
118, 122, 124, and 125 (i.e., station 109 plus the six stations in Table 2)
were within 80-100 percent of the maximum 03 concentration in the RAMS  97
percent of the time.  Figure 8f indicates that at step 16, station 120  is
not included in any of the clusters of these seven stations.   Furthermore,
in Table 1, station 120 has the highest percentage of days within 80-100
percent of the highest 1-h 03 concentrations of the remaining stations.  With
this addition, at least one of the eight stations, 109, 114,  115,  118,  120,
124, and 125, was within 80-100 percent of the maximum 1-h 03 concentration
in the RAMS on each of the 154 days.
                                    13

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                                  SECTION 5
                                   SUMMARY
     Stations that monitored 0^ concentrations in and near intense emission
areas were less frequently within 80-100 percent of the highest 1-h 03
concentration in the RAMS on days when the concentration exceeded 100 ppb
than stations away from these areas.   On the other hand, several  stations
located south and upwind of the city had very low 1-h maximum Oo  concentrations
compared with other stations.  A total of eight stations,  all  located outside
of intense emission areas, could have been used in place of 25 to detect
(within 80-100 percentage) the 1-h network maximum 03 concentration when  it
exceeded 100 ppb.   Mean maximum concentrations of all  the  other pollutants
studied were located inside areas of intense emissions.
     On days when the 1-h Oo concentration exceeded 100 ppb and relatively
strong wind speeds (>3.4 m/s) were observed, the highest Oo concentration
in the network was rarely located near intense emission areas.   For low
wind speeds (<2.5 m/s) the highest 0^ concentrations were  more often located
closer to the intense emission areas.
     The scavenging of 03 by NO resulted in lower than normal  1-h  average
0~ concentrations downwind of the city's intense emission  areas before 1000
CDT.   After 1000 CDT 03 concentrations downwind of the city averaged higher
than normal.  The concept of an urban plume was verified for mean concen-
trations for all the primary pollutants, even for the highly variable pollu-
tant CO.
     Station-to-station correlations of the primary pollutants was generally
lower than 0.70, except for some closely spaced stations,  particularly those
in intense emission areas.  Station-to-station correlations of 0^ were
significantly higher than those of the primary pollutants.  In fact, a single
station frequently could be used in place of several nearby stations with
little loss of information.  This was particularly true for the stations
located in and around the urban area of concentrated emissions.

                                     14

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10.
                         REFERENCES

Federal Register (Thursday, June 22,1978).  Photochemical Oxidants;
Measurement of Ozone in the Atmosphere; Requirements for Preparation,
Adoption, and Submittal of Implementation Plans.  Vol. 43, No. 121.

Larsen, R. I.  A Mathematical Model for Relating Air Quality Measurements
to Air Quality Standards.  AP-89, U. S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.  1971.  56 pp.

Staff Summary Report.  Alternate Forms of the Ambient Ai> Quality
Standard for Photochemical Oxidants.  U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency.  Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research
Triangle Park, North Carolina.   1978.   20 pp.

McClenny, W.  A. and L.  W. Chaney.  Pollutant Variability in the
Regional Air Pollution Study.  J. Air Pollut. Control Assoc.  28,
693-696, 1978.

Myers, R. L.  and Reagan, J. A.  The Regional Air Monitoring System,
St. Louis, Missouri, U. S. A. Conf. on environmental sensing  and
assessment proceedings:  CAT, IEEE No. 75-CH 1004-ICESA, Las  Vegas
Nevada. 1975. pp 8-6, 1-9.

Pooler, F. J.  Network Requirements for the St. Louis RAPS.  J. Air
Pollut. Control Assoc.  24, 228-231.  1974.

Jurgens, R.  B. and Rhodes, R. C.   Quality Assurance and Data  Validation
for the Regional Air Monitoring System of the St.  Louis Regional
Air Pollution Study.  Conf. on environmental modeling and simulation
proceedings:   EPA 600/9-76-016, Cincinnati,  Ohio,  1976. 730-734.

Littman, F.  E.  Regional Air Pollution Study Emission Inventory
Summarization.  U.  S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research
Triangle Park, North Carolina.  1979.  92 pp.

Karl, T. R.  and G.  A. DeMarrais.   Meteorological Conditions Conducive
to High Levels of Ozone.  In: Report of International Conference on
Photochemical Oxidant and Its Control, EPA 600/3-77-OOla Sept. 1976
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.  1977.  pp. 75-88.

Brooks, C. P. and N. Carruthers.   Handbook of Statistical Methods
in Meteorology.  Her Majesty's Stationary Office,  London, 1953.
pp. 222-224.
                                     15

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11.   Ludwig, F.  L.  and E.  Shelar.   Site Selection for the Monitoring  of
     Photochemical  Air Pollutants.   EPA-450/3-78-013, U.  S.  Environmental
     Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park,  North Carolina.   1978.
     103 pp.
                                     16

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                                       REGIONAL AIR MONITORING STATIONS

                                         5    10   15  20
                                     109
                                    EAST
                                    .LOUIS
                                        • 117
                                          BELLEVILLE
                           124
Figure 1. Stations of the Regional Air Monitoring System.
                       17

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                 2.22 X 107 Kg/yr
                                             THC
                                                           482 X 10° Kg/yr
THC
        Figure 2. Annual total emissions for the St. Louis area. Diagrams on the right
        show emissions for 5-km grid squares in the more intense emission areas, while
        diagrams on the left are for 10- and 15-km girds covering the entire region.
        Emissions are directly proportional to the area covered by each asterisk;
        emissions are specified for the largest asterisk in each of the six diagrams.
                                          18

-------
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-------
       071/0 68
                 0 68/0 66
                  O.S9/0.39
                        0.54/0.30
                                     0.61/060
                                                         0.58
 1
 2
 3
 4
 5
 6
 7
 8
 9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23	
241                                  ~     008/-0.08
  I 101 | 107 | 113 | 103 | 106 |  111 |  112 I 119 | 102 1 114 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 115 I 116 | 117
                                                         052/051
                                                                     Q.43/0.33
                                     0.37/0.03
                                                                                        CO 0700 - 0800 COT
                                       0 31/.0.06
                                        0 23/-0.06
                                          020/-0.02
                                           0.13/-005
                                                                                             0.45
STEP
 1
 2
 3
 4
 5
 6
 7
 8
 9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
                                                                   104 | 120 I 105 | 121 | 123 | 122 I 118 I 124 | 125
              Figure 8a.  Diagram for cluster analysis of hourly pollutant concentrations
              and maximum 03 concentrations. The first correlation coefficient inside
              each block represents the similarity of the two clusters which are com-
              bined  into a single cluster. The second correlation coefficient (or first
              if the second is absent) is the minimum correlation coefficient between
              any two stations of the previously distinct clusters. The hour for which
              each cluster analysis is presented is that for which the network average
              concentration  was highest. See text for further details.
STEP
   1
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
i STEP
 1
 2
 3
 4
 5
 6
 7
 8
 9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
     0.82
                     0.73/0 68
             0.66/0.50
                     0 62/0.55
                                     0.63/0.62
                                                    057/0.53
                                      0.40/0.08
                                                                                      THC 0700 - 0800 CDT
                                                                     0,60/0.56
                                                                 0.49/0.38
                                           0.31/0.04
                                                                                0.66
                                                                                  0.54/0.41
                                                                                   0.40/0.34
                                                  0.17/0.01
   1 101 | 106 | 111 | 102 | 107 | 113] 112 | 119 | 103 | 104 | 105 |  120 | 118 | 116 | 117 | 108 | 114 | 121 | 122 | 109 [ 110 | 118 | 124 | 123 |  125 |
                                 Figure 8b. (Same as figure legend 8a.).
                                                   29

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                                             STATIONS
STEP
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24




089 |
0 83/0 82
0 80/0 78




0.80/0 71









069


0 66/0 55



0 77
	


0 77/0 74






0 67/3 66






0 5//0 30







051/0



0 74





I
080










0 66/0 62

076








061/0 48



0 68





0 54/0 43
15





0 42/0 24


, 	








..





NO2 0700
069










0 35/0 03

0 19/003
0 19/-0 13




0800
:DT
035


STEP
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
| 101 | 107 [ 112 | 111 f 113 I 119 | 120 J 104 1 106 J 105 | 110 [ 102 | 103 | 108 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 109 | 117 | 123 | 121 | 122 | 125 | 118 | 124 |
                              Figure 8c.  (Same as figure legend 8a.).
STEP
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

[ 077
0.68/0 62








0.58
0.55/0.50



0 64







0.52/0 38

0.60







0 47/0 34


058







0 45/0 34




058







0 53/0 50






i
i
|
0.65








0 53/0 51





0 42/0 30


045

0 36/0 29
0.30/0.01

i
066











NO
0.45/0 36





0700-
0 28/0.26
0.211-003
0800
0.20/0.03
CDT
0.09/-006
STEP
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
 101 I  107 |  112 ] 102 [ 113 | 111 | 119 | 103 |  108 1 114 | 121 | 109 I 110 I 120 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 123 | 124 | 104 | 106 1 105 | 118 I 122 | 125
                              Figure 8d. (Same as figure legend 8a.).
                                                   30

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STEP
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24


i ' 	 	
| 0.92
0 90/0.90



0.93




0.89/0.88 	





0.88/037








0.89








0.89




0 85/0.81


083/0.80
1
i
i







0.85/0.84


082/071
I
I
I
i
31
0 70/0 61
300
0.68/0.61
0 68/0.58
111 | 119
112 | 120 | 113 | 109 | 116
123
117 | 102 | 108
114 | 115
124
125
400 C
DT
0.80




121 | 122
STEP
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
                                Figure 8e.  (Same as figure legend 8a.).
                                             STATIONS
STEP I
   1
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
|

| 0.91
0.90/0.89
0.92


0 87/035


0.86/0.82








0.86






0.84/0.84

OBO/0 72










0.77



0 67/0.49


078





0 66/0 46

0.86



0.80/0 78










0.71/065


0.62/0 1 3


am






0.75/071





0.57/0.12
O
054/0 12
3 MAX

0.28/-0.01

IMUM
>10(
072







3ppb
026/0.12
0.22/-0 14
101 1 106
107 |
103 I 104
102
105 j 109
110
112
120
113
114
108 I 116
115
123
111
118
119 I 117
124
121
122
125
STEP
 1
 2
 3
 4
 5
 6
 7
 8
 9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
                               Figure 8f. (Same as figure legend 8a.).
                                                 31

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TABLE 1.  PERCENT OF DAILY MAXIMUM 1-H 03 CONCENTRA-
TIONS AT EACH STATION THAT ARE WITHIN GIVEN PERCENT-
AGE INTERVALS OF THE CORRESPONDING DAILY HIGHEST
1-H 03 CONCENTRATION IN THE NETWORK.   N IS THE
NUMBER OF DAYS OF VALID DATA FOR THE  STATIONS WHEN
THE 1-H 0, CONCENTRATION AT ANY RAMS  STATION
EXCEEDED  100 PPB.
STATION
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
N
123
132
105
119
123
107
128
130
136
131
110
117
136
128
94
120
122
115
139
88
119
137
66
113
95
PERCENTAGE OF NETWORK HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
0-20
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20-40
2
3
4
4
6
5
5
4
3
2
4
1
2
1
1
2
7
2
2
0
1
1
5
9
8
40-60
19
25
20
45
22
11
36
24
14
12
27
24
24
11
7
22
30
8
18
11
12
15
35
32
33
60-80
54
51
60
44
41
59
52
45
46
56
57
53
53
30
52
52
45
47
44
54
44
65
31
34
36
80-100
25
21
16
7
11
25
7
27
37
30
12
22
21
58
40
24
18
43
24
35
43
49
29
25
23
                        32

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Table 2. Combinations of stations whose concen-
trations are most frequently within 80-100% of the
highest dailymaximum 1-H 03 concentration in the
network (for days with maximum concentration
above 100 ppb). N is the total number of days above
100 ppb and n is the number of days which were
within 80-100% of these high concentrations at
the indicated stations.
NUMBER OF
STATIONS
1
2
3
4
5
6
STATIONS
114
114,122
114,118,122
114,118,122,125
114, t15, 118, 122, 125
114,115,118,122,124,125
n
74
106
127
137
144
147
N
154
154
154
154
154
154
n/N, percent
48
69
82
89
94
95
                     33

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                                   TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                            (Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
  EPA-600/4-79-063
                             2.
                                                           3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSIOr*NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
   SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF OZONE AND OTHER POLLUTANTS
   AT ST. LOUIS,  MISSOURI
             5. REPORT DATE
               October 1979
             6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)

   Thomas R.  Karl
                                                          8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
                                                           10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
                (Same as Block 12.)
                                                             1AA603   AE-11    (FY-79)
             11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
   Environmental  Sciences Research Laboratory -  RTF,  NC
   Office  of Research and Development
   U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency
   Research  Triangle Park, NC  27711
             13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED

                         11/7R-fi/7q	
             14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
                EPA/600/9
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
        A network of 25 aerometric  stations  was part of the U.S. Environmental  Pro-
   tection Aqencv's Reaional Air Pollution Studv (RAPS) in the areater  St.  Louis area.
   At  these stations ozone (OJ and various  other photochemical pollutants  (NO,  N0?,
   and total  hydrocarbons (THC)) as well  as  carbon monoxide (CO) were analyzed  with
   respect to their spatial  variability.  Data  were analyzed for the warm months of
   the year,  April  through October of 1975 and  1976—periods during which high  0.
   concentrations are common.  The results of these analyses indicate that  when  0.
   concentrations are high (above 100 ppb) the  daily 1-h maximum 0- concentration is
   highly dependent upon the location of  measurement.   Measurements made at these
   times  in both  urban and rural locations in and around St.  Louis were frequently
   found  to vary  by a factor of two and occasionally by a factor as large as  four
   Simultaneous hourly average measurements  for each of the pollutants were correlated
  across  the network of 25  stations.  Rather poor correlations were found  for  the
  primary pollutants such as CO, NO, N02, and  THC.   Analyses  of normalized fields of
  pollutant  concentrations  suggest that  the  scavenging of 0^  by NO dominates the
  0.,-NO   reaction  cycle before 1000 CDT.                    6
   3   X
                               KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                  DESCRIPTORS
                                             b.IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
                             COSATI Field/Group
   * Air pollution
   * Ozone
     Nitrogen  oxides
     Hydrocarbons
   * Spatial distribution
  St. Louis, MO
      13B
      07B
      07C
13. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
                     RELEASE TO PUBLIC
19. SECURITY CLASS (This Report)

  UNCLASSIFIED
21. NO. OF PAGES
    42
20 SECURITY CLASS (This page)
  UNCLASSIFIED
                                                                        22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
                                            34

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