600480039
ENAMAP-l LONG-TERM AIR POLLUTION MODEL
Adaptation and Application to Eastern North America
C.M. Bhumralkar, R.L. Mancuso, D.E. Wolf,
R.A. Thin'llier, K.C. Nitz, and W.B. Johnson
Atmospheric Science Center
SRI International
Menlo Park, California 94025
Contract 68-02-2959
Project Officer
Terry L. Clark
Meteorology Division
Environmental Sciences Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES RESEARCH LABORATORY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, NORTH CAROLINA 27711
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CONTENTS
Abstract iii
Figures vi
Tables vii
Acknowledgment viii
1. Introduction 1
2. Description of the ENAMAP-1 Model 3
A. Basic Structure 3
B. Adaptation to Eastern North America 5
3. Data Sources 9
A. General Considerations 9
B. Meteorological Data Base 10
C. Emission Data Bases 10
D. Air-Quality Data Bases 13
4. Results of Model Application Using 1977 Data 21
A. General 21
B. S02 and SO^ Concentrations 21
C. Dry and Wet Deposition Results 32
D. Interregional Exchanges 32
5. Results of Model Applications Using 1985 Emissions Scenario .... 42
6. Summary and Concluding Remarks 52
References 53
Appendices
A 1977 Calculated Seasonal Results for S02 and SO^ Dry and Wet Depositions (mg/m2) . . 54
B 1977 Interregional Exchange Results 63
C 1985 Calculated Seasonal Results for SO2 and SO^ Concentrations (^g/m3)
and Dry and Wet Depositions (mg/m2) 72
D 1985 Interregional Exchange Results 85
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FIGURES
Number Page
1 Emissions puff advection and diffusion scheme used in EURMAP-1 and ENAMAP-1 ... 3
2 Data-flow diagram for the long-term ENAMAP-1 calculations of monthly
values 6
3 Eastern North American domain and EPA regions used in this study 8
4 SURE emission grid cells and EPA regions 12
5 Annual S02 and SO^ emissions for 1977 14
6 Annual S02 and SO^ emissions used in 1985 scenario calculations 15
7 Number of SURE and SAROAD air quality stations within the 160-km grid
squares reporting SO2 and SO^ concentrations during October 1977 20
8 SO2 concentrations (pg/m3) for January 1977 22
9 SO^ concentrations (/Lig/m3) for January 1977 ... 24
10 SO2 concentrations (/jg/m3) for August 1977 25
11 SO^ concentrations (Mg/m3) for August 1977 27
12 SO2 concentrations
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TABLES
Number Page
1 Element Values Used in the ENAMAP-1 Application to Eastern North America 7
2 Site Type Code Classifications 17
3 Project Code Classifications 17
4 Tabulation of Background Surveillance Sites by Station Type Code 18
5 Number of SURE and SAROAD Sites by Region During October 1977 19
6 Annual Interregional Exchanges of Sulfur Deposition for 1977 36
7 Calculated Seasonal Interregional Exchanges of Sulfur for 1977 37
8 Calculated Annual Interregional Exchanges of Sulfur Deposition for 1985 46
9 Calculated Seasonal Interregional Exchanges of Sulfur Deposition for 1985 47
VII
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ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors wish to express their appreciation to the Federal Environmental Agency
(Umweltbundesamt) of the Federal Republic of Germany for giving permission to adapt and
apply their long-term EURMAP-1 model to eastern North America. Joyce Kealoha of SRI Inter-
national was instrumental in the preparation of illustrations.
VIII
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SECTION 1
INTRODUCTION
Recent studies have shown that sulfur pollution may present a significant health hazard
and may produce a number of adverse ecological effects (United States Department of Agricul-
ture, 1976). With an increase in coal burning anticipated during the next few years in the
United States, a marked increase in sulfur loading of the atmosphere can be expected. This
has raised serious questions regarding the problem of transboundaryboth national and
internationalair pollution and its effects, which may endanger human health and harm living
resources. The need for a quantitative assessment of transboundary air pollution processes
and their effects in eastern North American is quite evident.
The distances involved in transboundary pollution processes are significantly larger than
those associated with direct local effects of emissions on ambient air concentrations. Tran-
sport from a given industrial area could cause higher pollutant concentrations in areas hun-
dreds or even thousands of kilometers away that may themselves have few or no local sources.
SRI International (SRI) has developed innovative trajectory-type regional air-pollution
models called EURMAP-1 and EURMAP-2 (European Regional Model of A\r Pollution).* These
models have been designed specifically for studying transboundary air pollution: in particular,
for identifying source areas affecting air quality in a given region and for quantifying interre-
gional exchanges of airborne sulfur between various countries or regions (Bhumralkar et al.,
1979). The long-term model, EURMAP-1, is used for calculating monthly, seasonal, and annual
averages. The short-term model, EURMAP-2, which is still under development, is used to cal-
culate daily averages. The unique features of EURMAP-1 that make it highly suitable for appli-
cation to assess the transboundary sulfur pollution problem in eastern North America are:
A realistic treatment of precipitation scavenging and wet deposition.
The capability to handle all emissions over a very large region such as eastern North
America.
The capability of calculating long-term concentrations and deposition averages as well
as interregional sulfur exchanges.
This report describes the results of a study for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) with the objective of adapting and testing a modified version of the EURMAP-1 model
[called Eastern Worth merican Model of /Air Pollution (ENAMAP-1)], applying the model to
eastern North America, and evaluating its performance by comparing the calculated results with
measured values of sulfur dioxide and sulfates (SO2 and SO^) in this area. Section 2
describes the basic structure of the EURMAP-1 model as originally developed for FRG, and its
'Sponsored by the Environmental Agency (Umweltbundesamt) of the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG)
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adaptation for application to eastern North America with respect to model grid boundaries and
other variables. Section 3 presents a review of the data base including the air-quality, emis-
sions, and meteorological data used with ENAMAP-1. Section 4 describes monthly, seasonal,
and annual results obtained by applying ENAMAP-1 to the data base for 1977, including con-
centrations of SO2 and SO^ and exchanges of sulfur pollution between various regions
included in the model domain. Section 5 describes monthly, seasonal, and annual distributions
of sulfur pollution over eastern North America for the year 1985; these were obtained by using
projected emissions likely to occur in 1985 as a result of the use of alternative types of fuel.
Section 6 presents a summary and the conclusions of the study.
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SECTION 2
DESCRIPTION OF THE EURMAP-1 AND ENAMAP-1 MODELS
A. Basic Structure
EURMAP-1 was designed as a practical modelone that would have minimum computa-
tional requirements for economical use, while at the same time offering acceptable realism in
simulating the most important processes involved in the transboundary air-pollution problem.
The long-term EURMAP-1 and ENAMAP-1 models can be used to calculate monthly, seasonal,
and annual S02 and SO4 air concentrations; SO2 and SO^" dry and wet deposition patterns;
and interregional exchanges resulting from the SO2and SO 4 emissions. They use long
sequences of historical meteorological data as input, retaining all the original temporal and
spatial detail inherent in these data.
In the developed models, discrete puffs of S02 and SO^" are assumed to be emitted at
equal time increments from cells of an emission grid. Figure 1 illustrates the basic principles
behind the operation of the ENAMAP-1 model. Normally the models are run separately for each
region of interest. Thus, only the array of emissions cells associated with the particular region
of interest is used at any one time. The emission grid that is used is dependent on the form of
the available emission data (e.g., in this application, seasonal emission data were conveniently
PUFFS ADVECTED WITH
-OBSERVED WIND FIELDy
AND TRACKED AT
3-HOUR TIME STEPS I
SO-,
SOj
AT ASSUMED
RATE OF 1%/HR
EMISSIONS "PUFFS"!
j RELEASED EVERY
^12 HOURS FROM
i EACH EMISSIONS
!GRID CELL
CONCENTRATION AND WET
AND DRY DEPOSITION
AMOUNTS ASSIGNED TO
EACH RECEPTOR CELL AT
EACH TIME STEP ACCORDING
TO CELL AREAS COVERED
BY PUFF
DIFFUSION ASSUMPTIONS:^"
FICKIAN (^t1/2) IN
: HORIZONTAL; UNIFORM
"^MIXING IN VERTICAL
UP TO MIXING HEIGHT
Figure 1. Emissions puff advection and diffusion scheme
used in ENAMAP-1.
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available on an 80- by 80-km Universal Transverse Mercator (DIM) grid as described in Sec-
tion 3-C). For each of the emission cells, the average annual or seasonal emissions are divided
into discrete 1 2-hour emission puffs and tracked at 3-hour time steps, until either they move
outside the region of analysis or their concentrations drop to an insignificant level. The indivi-
dual puffs are transported according to a transport wind field that is derived objectively from
the available upper-air wind observations.
Since diffusion on the regional scale is not as significant as the transport and removal
processes, very simple treatments of vertical and horizontal diffusion have been used in the
EURMAP-1 and ENAMAP-1 models. Upon release, each puff is assumed to undergo instan-
taneous vertical diffusion to give a uniform concentration in the layer between the surface and
the top of mixing height. Horizontal diffusion is treated by allowing the lateral extent of the puff
to increase on the basis of Fickian diffusion. During the transport of the puff, the model
assumes that the pollutant concentration is always uniform throughout each puff at any given
time.
Assuming that the rate of loss of S02 pollutant mass resulting from transformation and
deposition processes is proportional to the total SO2 mass (m) within the puff, then:
dm/dt = -km (1)
where
k = k, + ka + kw = SO2 decay rate (hr^}
k, = SO2 ~~' SO; transformation rate (hr~^)
kd = S02dry deposition rate (hr~i)
kw =S02 wet deposition rate (ftr~1) = x R
\ =SO2 washout coefficient (mm~1)
R ^Precipitation rate (mm/hr of liquid water).
Similarly, assuming that the rate of loss of SO; pollutant mass is proportional to the total SO;
mass (M) within the puff, then:
dM/dt = -KM (2)
where
K =*Ka + Kw = SO 4 decay rate
Ka = SO; dry deposition rate (hr~^)
Kw = SO; wet deposition rate (ftr~1) = f R
r = SO
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rates used; these amounts are deposited within the appropriate cell of a receptor grid. Also, at
each time step, a fraction of the S02 is transformed to SO^" at the specified transformation rate,
k,
Figure 2 is a data flow diagram for the ENAMAP-1 computer software showing the rela-
tionship between the three types of input data and the principal ENAMAP-1 program, PUFPUF.
Weather data and emission data are used by PUFPUF to produce tables of depositions and
concentrations, which are compared with air quality data by a subsequent program.
The values for the basic model elements that were used in ENAMAP-1 are listed in Table
1. These values have been based on reviews of recent field, laboratory, and theoretical studies
and on an evaluation study that was made using the results obtained from a previous applica-
tion of the EURMAP-1 model (Mancuso et a I., 1978). A more detailed description of the long-
term EURMAP-1 model is given by Johnson et al. (1978).
B. Adaptation to Eastern North America
Figure 3 shows the sector of the North American continent over which the adapted
ENAMAP-1 version of the EURMAP-1 model has been applied. This sector covers the region
between 30ฐN and 50ฐN latitudes and 105ฐW and 65ฐW longitudes. The ENAMAP-1 model
used in this study is characterized by the following:
The receptor cell size is 80 x 80 km instead of 50 x 50 km used in the European
applications. The model domain covers the area shown in Figure 3; the pollutant depo-
sitions are accumulated and concentrations are averaged in these receptor cells.
The model calculates the interregional exchanges of sulfur pollution for the EPA
regions and subregions shown in Figure 3.
. The Sulfate Regional Experiment (SURE) emissions data, supplemented by data from
the National Emissions Data System (NEDS) have been used in this application. The
emissions data are given by seasons for an emission cell size of 80 x 80 km which is
the same as the receptor cell size. (The emissions data are described in more detail in
Section 3-C.)
The wind profile and precipitation data are based on a relatively greater density of data
in the United States than were available in European applications. For example,
whereas the precipitation data for the U.S.A. are available on an hourly basis for
approximately 2000 stations, the corresponding data for Europe is only four times daily
at about 600 stations. Also the wind data between the surface and 850 mb are more
complete for the U.S.A. than for Europe. This has enabled calculation of more
representative and accurate transport winds for use in the ENAMAP-1 model.
The mixing height, which is kept constant in European applications, has seasonal
dependence and varies from 1.15 km in winter to 1.50 km in summer.
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WEATHER DATA
EMISSION DATA
OBSERVED DATA
Select
Desired
Data
Select
Desired
Data
Accumulate
Data within
Grid Squares
Process
SURE
Data
Process
NEDS
Data
Select, Locate
and Average
Site Data
Weather Data
Analysis Programs
(WINFIL)
Append
NEDS Data
to SURE Data
(WREMIT)
Accumulate
Air Quality Data
within Deposition
Grid Boxes (BOX4)
Merge Precipitation Data
(PRECIP)
Display
Air Quality Data
for Comparison with
Calculations (DISP)
Calculate Monthly Average Results
for Each EPA Region (PUFPUF)
Accumulate and Store Results
for Each Region (ARCHIVE)
Combine Regional Results and List
Interregional Tables (SUMMARY)
Generate Contour Plots for Combined
Results of All Region (SHOW)
Figure 2. Data-flow diagram for the long-term ENAMAP-1 calculations
of monthly values.
Program names are given in parentheses.
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TABLE 1. ELEMENT VALUES USED
IN THE ENAMAP-1 APPLICATION TO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
Element
Values
Emission rate
Transport wmdspeed (V) (ms~1)
and direction (8)
Mixing height (km)
h = h0 + f A*
SO2 deposition rates (hr1)
Dry
Wet
SO4 deposition rates (hr"1)
Dry
Wet
S02/S04 transformation rate (hr"
Data provided by season
Derived by integrating winds over
boundary layer
ho = 1.3
f = -0.15
0.037
0.28R1
0.007
0.07R1"
0.01
A = +1 in winter, -1 in summer, and 0 in spring and fall.
R is the precipitation rate in mm/hr~1.
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SECTION 3
DATA SOURCES
A. General Considerations
Any data base used for modeling must have features that correspond to certain special
features of the model in question. ENAMAP-1 has the features listed below:
It can operate on input data updated at arbitrarily specified intervals. This enables the
model to calculate averaged concentration patterns on monthly, seasonal, and annual
bases.
It can operate on input data with arbitrary spatial resolution. This enables the model to
determine the relative contribution of multiple sources to air quality.
These two features of ENAMAP-1 are valuable assets when the model is used to identify
problem source areas and to test alternate approaches to emissions control.
Before applying ENAMAP-1 to any specific period, it was necessary to ascertain that the
data bases satisfied some standard modeling requirements. These are:
Spatial and temporal resolution of the emissions input data should be closely related to
spatial and temporal resolutions of the meteorological input data. Spatial and temporal
variability should be based, where possible, on measurements or reliable distribution
models for the same period of time, preferably one full year or more of data.
ซ Data chosen for model input and verification should be, if possible, for the same period
of time. This ensures a consistent validation of the model results.
Finally, since long-term transport is to be modeled, the data base should be of
sufficient geographical extent.
In order to ensure the greatest compatibility of available data bases, it was decided, in
consultation with EPA, to apply the ENAMAP-1 model to the year 1977. The most recent full
set of meteorological data and the SURE emission inventory were available for this year, and
SURE air-quality data were available for August and October of 1977. The seasonal analyses
are based on the results for the months of January (winter), April (transition), August (summer),
and October (transition). For the months of January and April, the SAROAD air-quality data
were used for the model validation; for the months of August and October, the SAROAD data
were supplemented by the SURE data.
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B. Meteorological Data Base
Historical meteorological data were obtained from the National Climatic Center (NCC) in
Asheville, North Carolina. The types of NCC weather data that were used in this study were:
Upper-air wind data for about 50 United States sites that were available at 12-hourly
intervals.
. Precipitation data for the United States and Canada consisting of a limited number of
observations (less than 200) every six hours.
. Precipitation data that contain hourly values for a very dense network of stations in the
United States, about 2000 within the study region.
The basic analyses were made using the computer program WINFIL (see Figure 2). This
program uses the 12-hourly upper-air and the 6-hourly surface data to generate both transport
winds and precipitation amounts at 3-hourly intervals for the 80- by 80-km weather grid for
input to ENAMAP-1. However, since the number of stations with 6-hourly precipitation was
small, available hourly precipitation data was used as well, in order to get more representative
precipitation values. Values based on this hourly data were used in place of the values based
on the 6-hourly precipitation data over the eastern United States. Over Canada, where hourly
data were not available, the values used were those based on the 6-hourly data. Over the
Atlantic Ocean, where no precipitation data were available, an average hourly value based on
climatic summaries was used. The precipitation data, expressed as rainfall rates in mm/hr,
were used directly in the wet deposition calculations described in Section 2.
C. Emissions Data Bases
1. 1977 Emissions
Since 1970, emissions data have been collected and archived in the National Emissions
Data System (NEDS) of the EPA. NEDS data cover the entire ENAMAP-1 study area and pro-
vide relatively high spatial resolutions. However, the NEDS data base lacks the diurnal resolu-
tion of the SURE data base (see below) and does not consistently provide the seasonal varia-
bility of emissions. Two other major shortcomings are associated with the NEDS data; one is
that the emissions are updated sporadically, and many source emissions contained in the data
base are suspected to be outdated. The data cannot, therefore, be considered as adequately
representative of the emissions for a single recent year. The second shortcoming is the lack of
adequate quality control: Many errors made on coding forms submitted to NEDS by local agen-
cies and contractors were not detected, and large numbers of such errors have been found by
persons working with the NEDS data base.
Specialized emissions data have also been prepared for the SURE program (Perhac,
1978). These data are complete for sources existing in July 1977 and effectively represent
emissions for the 1977 time period. This SURE emissions data base was essentially a
refinement of the NEDS data base; that is, the NEDS data were updated and screened for errors
and inconsistencies, especially with respect to electric power plants, which emit 62.4 percent
of the total annual SO2 emissions in the United States (Environmental Protection Agency,
1978). Finally, the refined data were apportioned to a UTM-based geographic grid of 80- by
80-km squares. The SURE emissions data for S02 and oxides of nitrogen (NOJ (among other
pollutants) were available for three-hour periods in each of four seasons (spring, summer, fall,
10
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winter) and were provided in six emissions categories (residential-, commercial-, industrial-,
and transportation-area sources, and small- and major-point sources depending on whether or
not the plant's emissions exceeded 10 ktons/year). Average emissions and emission factors
for assigning diurnal and weekend/weekday apportionment were provided for each emissions
category. Stack parameters (e.g., height, temperature, flow rate) were provided for each major
point source. The SURE emissions data cover most of the area considered in this study except
for the western states (Colorado, the Dakotas, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas).
After reviewing the relative merits of NEDS and SURE emission data bases, it was decided
in consultation with EPA that the SURE emissions inventory would be used as the principal
inventory for the ENAMAP-1 modeling. However, since consideration of the emissions not
included in the SURE data base was also desired, it was decided to supplement the SURE data
with NEDS data.*
The SURE emissions inventory, which was apportioned on an 80- by 80-km UTM grid,
covers the eastern United States and southeastern Canada as shown in Figure 4. The six
categories of S02 and SO 4 emissions were summed to provide the total S02 and SOJ emis-
sions for each season for each square. Each emission grid cell in the U.S. was subjectively
assigned to an EPA region based on the location of the cell center (e.g., Figure 4). If the center
of a grid cell fell within a particular region, it was assigned to that region.
NEDS SOX point and area emissions data were provided by the EPA for Kansas, Nebraska,
North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas. For area sources, only the annual values
were available, and one fourth of the annual emissions were assigned to each of the four
seasons. For each point source the seasonal as well as the annual SOX emissions were pro-
vided. The UTM grid used for the SURE emissions was extended to the West, and the NEDS
data were used to complete it. The NEDS point-source emissions were assigned to the proper
UTM grid cells according to the location of the source. Area sources, which were given by
county, were assigned to the grid cells that contained the center of that county. Each grid cell
was then assigned to an EPA region as described previously for the SURE data.
While NEDS data provide only total SOX emissions, SURE data provide separate values for
S02 and SOJ emissions. This information has been used to calculate separate S02 and SO^
emissions for the NEDS data.
If r is defined as the ratio of S02 to total SOX emissions, and it is assumed that r for NEDS
data is the same as that for SURE data, then:
SO2=/--SOX , and
= - d -r)sox
The SURE emissions inventory was compiled by the GCA Corporation of Bedford, Massachusetts, and the NEDS data
were supplied by the EPA
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where the 3/2 is the ratio of molecular weights of SOj to that of SO2. The values of r that were
derived from SURE data for each season are:
Season r
Spring 0.9763
Summer 0.9776
Autumn 0.9763
Winter 0.9751
One point source in El Paso, Texas emitted about 20 percent of the total SOX emissions
from Texas. As El Paso is just outside the grid, these emissions were included within the grid
as was suggested by the EPA project monitor. Figure 5 shows the average annual values of the
S02 and SOJ emissions data for 1977 that were used in this study.
2. 7985 Emissions
The emissions used for the 1985 scenario were projected values supplied by the Energy
Information Office of the Department of Energy (Pechan, 1978). The emissions were provided
as an annual amount of SOX for each Air Quality Control Region (AQCR), and were based on
projections from the year 1975. The data included a state code number, an AQCR indicator,
and the annual emissions of SOX. In addition to the amount of SOX, the ENAMAP-1 model
needed the location and areas of each AQCR. The SOX amount was separated into S02 and
S0|" emissions by assuming the ratio of SO; emissions to be the same as for the 1977 emis-
sions data. Figure 6 shows the average annual S02 and SO^ emissions that were used in the
1985 scenario calculations. These annual emission rates were divided by 1 2 to obtain emis-
sion values for each month; that is, no attempt was made to incorporate a seasonal variation in
these data. As can be seen by comparing Figures 5 and 6, this projection for 1985 indicated a
general decrease in sulfur emissions, particularly at certain locations (such as over the New
Orleans area). It should also be noted that there were no projected emissions for Canada avail-
able for inclusion in this 1985 scenario.
D. Air-Quality Data Bases
1. General
The ENAMAP-1 model is structured to calculate average S02 and SO.T concentrations
within 80- by 80-km grid boxes based on emissions data of similar resolution. Thus, it was
important to select, for validation purposes, air-quality data representative of such a spatial
average. This requirement, in essence, precluded use of air quality data influenced by strong
local sources, since such data would generally involve concentrations in excess of any broad
spatial averaging. As discussed earlier, two data sources were available from which appropri-
ate air-quality data were selected. These are the SURE data* and the Storage and Retrieval of
Aerometric Data (SAROAD). A brief description of each of these data sets is given below.
*The SURE air quality data were compiled by the Environmental Research and Technology, Inc (ERT) for the Electric
Power Research Institute (EPRI) ERT has made these data available to SRI for use in this project
13
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2 128 2
ISSUJ
2 16 2
2- 2
LOCAL MAXIMA (MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
Figure 5. Annual S02 and SO^ emissions for 1977 (1C)-1 tons/km2).
14
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so;
LOCAL MAXIMA MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
Figure 6. Annual S02 and SO^ emissions used in 1985 scenario calculations
(10"1tons/km2).
No data were available for Canada.
15
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2. SURE Data
From the standpoint of representativeness, the SURE air-quality data base is ideal, since
SURE air monitoring sites were selected specifically to avoid undue influence of local sources
(Perhac, 1978). The SURE air-quality network consisted of a total of 54 sites located
throughout the northeastern part of the United States. Nine stations were designated as Class I
sites, operated exclusively for use in the SURE program. These stations measured sulfur diox-
ide (S02), oxides of nitrogen (NOX), nitric oxide (NO), ozone (03), sulfates (SOJ), nitrates (NO^),
and total and respirable suspended particulates (TSP, RSP), as well as temperature and dew
point. Gases were monitored as hourly averages, while particulates including SO4 and N0$
were monitored as 3- and 24-hour averages. Forty-five stations were designated as Class II
sites, measuring only S02 as an hourly average along with 24-hour averages of TSP, SO4, and
NO J. Of these, 20 were operated routinely by ERT under contract to its clients and 25 stations
were operated routinely by agencies and organizations other than ERT.
Air-quality measurements for the SURE program began with 9 August 1977. Class I meas-
urements were available every month thereafter, while Class II measurements were available
only for the months of August and October 1977 and January, April, July, and October 1978.
Currently available data have been validated through instrumental performance checks, calibra-
tion, digitization, and machine reading and were designated as suitable for scientific investiga-
tive purposes. While data capture was typically high, data were nonetheless screened for use
in ENAMAP-1 on the basis of data capture criteria derived from the data summary criteria of
the Monitoring and Data Analysis Division of the National Air Data Branch, EPA, namely:
. Hourly data capture must be 75 percent or more of the total possible for the month in
question.
. Data capture for 24-hourly data must consist of three or more observations during the
month. (This is based on a typical frequency for 24-hour SAROAD data collection of
every sixth day.)
Because of inherent representativeness of the SURE data base, the entire data base was
used in the validation of ENAMAP-1 model.
3. SAROAD Data
Historical air quality data for SO2 and 504" are available in the SAROAD data base main-
tained by EPA. These data are spatially resolved by individual station measurements in the
study area and are temporally resolved at intervals of 24 hours or less.
The SAROAD data base contains data from various site types, some influenced by local
sources and some not. Since the SURE data were somewhat sparse geographically and were
available for only two of the four months involved in the study, they were augmented by
SAROAD data screened to reject sites with a likely local-source influence.
For the purpose of screening the SAROAD data, the SAROAD Site Description File was
obtained from EPA. This file contains a description of each SAROAD site, including a two-digit
site code indicating the classifications given in Table 2 and a two-digit protect code indicating
the classifications given in Table 3. This file was interrogated for a clue to a reasonable pro-
cess of site selection. The site codes in Table 2 suggested the most likely representative sites
to be those coded 40, indicating remote sites. Suburban residential (22) and rural agricultural
(32) sites, however, are also likely representative sites. The protect codes in Table 3 suggested
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TABLE 2. SITE TYPE CODE CLASSIFICATIONS.
First Digit
1
2
3
4
Description
Center city
Suburban
Rural
Remote
Second Digit
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
5
0
Description
Industrial
Residential
Commercial
Mobile
Industrial
Residential
Commercial
Mobile
Near urban
Agricultural
Commercial
Industrial
None of the above
Note: Each classification is composed of a two digit number;
for example, the site classification for a rural agricultural area
would be 32.
TABLE 3. PROJECT CODE CLASSIFICATIONS.
Code
Description
01
02
03
04
05
06
08
09
10
11-99
Population-oriented surveillance
Source-oriented ambient surveillance
Background surveillance
Complaint investigation
Special studies
Episode monitoring
Global surveillance
Duplicate sampling
Continuous Air Monitoring Program station
For federal networks and future expansion
the most likely sites to be those coded 03, indicating background surveillance. Table 4 indi-
cates that the "background surveillance" designation was properly applied in most cases, since
the 03 stations are the types 13, 22, 32, and 40, and are the least likely to be influenced by
strong local sources.
17
-------
TABLE 4. TABULATION
OF BACKGROUND SURVEILLANCE SITES
BY STATION TYPE CODE.
1
Station Type
11
12
13
14
21
22
23
24
31
32
33
34
35
40
Number of
Background Sites
2
7
24
1
4
50
11
2
41
132
9
10
34
109
On the basis of the information above, it was decided to make the first selection of
SAROAD sites from among the background surveillance sites by sorting the SAROAD file on the
03 project code. Selections of appropriate 03 sites were made to depend also upon an accept-
able rate of data capture. Data capture criteria, discussed earlier, were applied to both the
SURE and SAROAD data.
Initial application of these criteria to the 03 sites resulted in a data coverage that was too
sparse for a proper validation of the model. In order to augment the data set, it was decided to
include additional sites, which, while not remote in the strict sense of the word, wouid neverthe-
less be unlikely to suffer the undue influence of strong local sources of SO2. One promising
category of sites was that represented by project code 01, residential. Such sites are usually
well removed from industrial areas. Another category was provided by sites with project code
05 for special studies, at least some of which might be remote. While the influence of local
sources could not be ruled out in the case of 01 and 05 sites, the tacit assumption was made
that such influence, if great, would have been indicated by a coding of 02 for source-oriented
monitoring. In any event, printouts of the grid concentrations resulting from their inclusion were
checked for an indication of high concentration indicative of undue local source influence.
None were found in those checked.
18
-------
Table 5 shows the number of sites in each region belonging to each ol
categories, 01, 03, and 05, for October 1977. Although the number of sites
can vary from month to month, the differences are not significant, and the n ,-
October are quite representative.
TABLE 5. NUMBER OF SURE AND SAROAD SITES
BY REGION DURING OCTOBER 1977
Region
VIII-North
V-North
S. Ontario
VII
Vlll-South
VI-East
V-South
IV-South
IV-North
III
II
I
S. Quebec
S02 Air Quality Data
SURE
Site
0
4
0
0
1
3
7
4
2
8
5
0
3
SAROAD Site Code
01
6
171
82
10
125
82
175
101
78
130
86
1
92
03
18
0
1
0
4
2
11
7
11
3
0
0
0
05
0
23
5
2
7
15
29
4
4
14
1
0
6
SO^ Air Quality Dat,
SURE
Site
0
4
0
0
1
4
10
7
4
12
5
0
4
SAROAD
01
5
3
1
8
23
13
0
1
2
7
18
0
4
03
15
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
-
t
0
0
4. Assignment of Air-Quality Values to Grid Squares
When the air quality data for a given month had been identified, a single monthly-av? -. .,r
S02 and a single monthly-average SO^ concentration were calculated for 160- by 160-kn
squares if they contained one or more acceptable sites. The averaging within these large ;B <-.
squares was done for the purpose of averaging out (as much as possible) unrepresentative
local values. In determining the grid-square concentrations, hourly or 24-hourly SURE and
SAROAD data at individual sites were averaged over the month in question. The grid-squan.
concentration was then determined as the average of all individual monthly averages within
grid square. Assignment to grid squares was made on the basis of UTM coordinates contair-
in the site description file. The total number of SURE and SAROAD stations reporting S02 ai <:
SOT concentrations within the 160- by 160-km grid squares is shown in Figure 7 for the mor!
of October. (Similar distributions occured in the other months.)
19
-------
294 \l I ป--'--'('1';-..-'-\ '
-r * 3 ;' "-\,v-.vf:-..
2 8
7',-
-?' 6 2 6 4
2\5 2 16 12
5 ..2
8 42 $3 4 I 46Bvl
I?322-S7 10 l /l
12 32^
1 ' 3 8 '
i -2-- ^. .4. j '^..a.. ,z. j. .-.7. .~JJ. .9.. A j)+ i
7 I \ 2 I B''' 2 10 4 9 .-"3 7 4 3 C-^
! .- ,"'-:'"'--- ;v
..>ป I j 7 ; I ; 3 -,6 2~.ll 6 ^\f
42 16 ! '^--3-^ I 11 I V 5 4\ 6 ,-fe
2231 I I \ I ;' ',1 \ ft I
7 I 3; 3 V'^.
612 3i;'"fe'""v.-a'-
i-.
e ;, i -...;,>- \%i
4 5 4 2 '. 2 .-.' ..-'ii. ..''.,
2 f / "'--,>;>-
} " f..^' /UV,-;^2--4-.E, '.;,
"3-.
3!
I
3!
.-*r
* t I
Figure 7. Number of SURE and SAROAD air quality stations within the 160-km grid
squares reporting S02 and SO^ concentrations during October 1977.
20
-------
SECTION 4
RESULTS OF MODEL APPLICATION USING 1977 DATA
A. General
For the purpose of developing a set of model results for evaluation against available
observations, the basic model was run for the months of January, April, August, and October,
1977 in the manner described in Section 2 using the detailed emission and meteorological
data. These particular months were selected in order to examine the seasonal variations in the
results. August, rather than July, was chosen as representative of summer because of the avai-
lability of SURE data for August. Separate runs were made for each of the 13 regions for which
emissions were available (Figure 3). For each of the four months, fields of S02 and SO^" con-
centrations, dry deposition, and wet deposition resulting from the sulfur emissions in each of
the 13 individual regions were calculated and stored. The results from the individual runs were
than combined into maps for each month showing the total concentration, dry deposition, and
wet deposition distributions resulting from S02 emissions from all 13 regions taken together.
Interregional exchange tables were also generated. These results are shown in this section
and also in the Appendices.
Finally, assuming that the results for each of the four months are representative of sea-
sonal values, annualized depositions have been estimated by totalling the four-monthly deposi-
tion values and multiplying by three. Similarly, estimates of annual average concentrations
have been obtained by averaging values for the four months. These annual results are also
presented in this section.
Logarithmic contour intervals (2, 4, 8, 16, 32 ...) are used in the maps shown throughout
the text and only the open contours are labelled. The other numbers on the contour maps and
the adjacent crosses (+) are the magnitudes and locations of maximum values in the concen-
tration and deposition fields.
B. SO2 and SO4 Concentrations
1. Winter Season (January)
The calculated S02 concentrations for January 1977 are shown in Figure 8 by isolines
(local maxima are also indicated). The primary maximum concentrations (^ 64 ng/m3) were
near Pittsburgh. Concentration centers greater than 32 fj.g/m3 occur near the cities of New
York, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Sudbury (Ontario), and in western Kentucky.
Figure 8 also shows the measured values for the SO2 concentrations averaged over 160- by
160-km squares, in addition to hand-drawn isolines. These measured values are based only on
SAROAD data, because SURE data were not available for this month. As mentioned previously,
the SAROAD data were averaged for all stations belonging to three project classifications (01,
21
-------
CALCULATED
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
L,--^--39 53 36
64,'
-40^S-49/667'-39Y,
MEASURED
Figure 8. S02 concentrations (jug/m3) for January 1977.
22
-------
03, and 05; see Table 3), since there were not enough stations available if only the background
classification (03) was considered.
A comparison of the calculated and measured values in Figure 8 shows that the patterns
of the model calculations of SO2 concentrations compare favorably with the measured ones,
especially in areas of high concentrations. For example, both the calculated and measured
values show maxima in the New York/New Jersey area, as well as in the Pittsburgh area.
However, the January calculated values are generally lower than the measured values. This
appears to be caused by the choice of mixing-height values that were used in the model (dis-
cussed later). Also, there are some significant differences between the calculated and mea-
sured concentrations at specific locations. For example, in the northwestern part of the area,
measured values of 42 and 61 fj.g/m3 are found along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border, while
the maximum calculated value in this region is at most 11 /ixg/m3 (near St. Paul). Another
noticeable discrepancy between the calculated and measured concentrations occurs at the
western boundary of the model domain, where measured values exceed 16 fj.g/m3 in eastern
Colorado and New Mexico. A closer examination of the reasons for the above-mentioned
measured values indicates that they all belong to the 01 classification of the SAROAD data,
and are thus population (urban) oriented. Therefore, they may not be representative of regional
values. (The model did not consider emissions to the west.)
Figure 9 shows both the calculated and measured SOf concentrations for January 1977.
In the calculated results, the higher SO 4" concentrations (>8 /xg/m3)are centered over the
northeastern U.S., while west of the Mississippi the concentrations become quite low (<2
ng/m3). The high values off the east coast are a manifestation of the wind being from the
northwest to the southeast. The measured concentrations of SO 4 for January 1977 also show
high values in the northeastern U.S. that are consistent with the calculated values. However,
some high measured values (up to 10 ng/m3) have also been recorded west of the Mississippi.
This discrepancy between calculated and measured SO^ concentration is perhaps caused by
either the unrepresentativeness of the measured data or the neglect of emissions data that are
being transported into the domain from outside areas. (For example, long-range transport
crossing the western boundary into the grid domain.)
The differences between the calculated and measured values can also be partially attri-
buted to the neglect of natural sulfur emissions in the model calculations. Sulfur compounds
exist in the seas, in the soils, and in organic matter; and on a global basis these natural
sources can contribute significant amounts of sulfur to the atmosphere. In the lower concen-
tration areas of Figures 8 and 9 (western half of domain), much of the measured SO2 and S01
may be due to natural sources.
2. Summer Season (August)
Patterns of the calculated and measured SO2 concentrations for August 1977 are shown
in Figure 10. For this month, the measured data are based on both SURE and SAROAD data
(see Section 3-D). A comparison of the calculated and measured values shows that:
The calculated results for August generally compare favorably with the measured
values both in regard to patterns and magnitudes. For example, the isoline for the mea-
sured value of 32 in Ohio and Pennsylvania coincides with the isoline for the calcu-
lated value of 32; the measured values of 31 and 37 are located in the proximity of the
isoline representing a calculated value of 32.
23
-------
2 -2 >'-2
CALCULATED
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
O -- . -.. .-->
12 II 10 10 10.-"'8
,* ' '
9 -il"l?;'lOVld..'9
7 MEASURED
Figure 9. SO4concentrations (pg/m3) for January 1977.
24
-------
,,
22 2 ' 2 2----'
' CALCULATED
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
41
2 4
MEASURED
Figure 10. SO2 concentrations
for August 1977
25
-------
. The highest calculated value in the domain is 69 fj.g/m3, which coincides with a mea-
sured value of 47. However, the calculated values apply to a 80- by 80-km grid, while
the measured values apply to a 160- by 160-km grid. Thus, the measured value of 47
ng/m3 should actually be compared with a calculated value averaged over a similar
area (i.e. four 80- by 80-km grid squares), which in this particular case would give a
calculated value of 52 ^g/m3.
In some regions, the model underestimates concentrations. For example, in the Green
Bay area, a measured value of 36 ng/m3 is located between the 4 and 8 isolines of the
calculated values. In other regions it overestimates concentrations, such as in eastern
Kentucky.
In the north of the domain, the measured value of 41 p,g/m3 (although located in a
region of low calculated values) is very close to the high calculated values (>16) near
Rouyn, Quebec.
. The model probably does not accurately simulate the low measured values in the
Appalachian region because the model does not incorporate complex terrain.
The comparable figures for calculated and measured SO^ concentrations are shown in
Figure 11. As can be seen, ENAMAP-1 appears to have performed quite well for SO 4 for this
summer period. The higher SO^" concentrations (> 8 jug/m3) occur over the northeastern U.S.
in both the calculated and measured fields, with peak values (17 /zg/m3) occurring near the
Pittsburgh area. A region of low concentrations is indicated in both the calculated and mea-
sured fields over eastern Kentucky, although the latter are somewhat lower than the calculated.
3. Transitional Seasons (April and October) and Annual
The calculated and measured S02 and SO 4 concentrations for April and October 1977
are shown in Figures 1 2 through 15. In general both the calculated and measured S02 and
SC>4 concentrations lie between the higher values in winter (January), and lower values in
summer (August). This seasonal variation, however, is much stronger in the measured data. As
mentioned previously, the winter SO2 and SOJ measurements are larger than the calculated
values, while the summer measurements and calculations are in close agreement. The results
for the transitional months appear to be somewhere in between. The smaller seasonal variabil-
ity in the calculated results appears to be largely a result of the selected mixing heights, based
on results from our European applications, that were used for each season in the model (see
Table 1). The use of seasonal mixing-height values closer to those given by Holzworth (1972)
would probably produce an improved comparison between the calculated and the measured
values.
The seasonal variabilities caused by the prevailing wind flow can be readily seen in the
calculated results, particularly the calculated SO4 concentration patterns. The patterns of both
the measured and calculated SO4 concentrations are similar, reflecting the effects of the tran-
sport winds. However, the measured data are rather spotty (particularly for SO^), and some of
the values are likely not to be representative of the 160- by 160-km areas. Thus, the measured
patterns are not as clearly related to the wind fields.
Generally, in all seasons, the measured SO2 and SOJ patterns tend to show lower con-
centrations in the south and higher values in the north compared to those calculated. This
could be caused by increased convection and mixing that occur in the southern portions of the
domain, resulting in higher mixing heights. Perhaps, this effect could be best parameterized in
the ENAMAP-1 model by incorporating certain features of our short-term EURMAP-2 model
26
-------
CALCULATED
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
10 , 12 9'I5 -li-15 .-13.-'
rv*^"
MEASURED
figure 11, SO^ concentrations (/;g/m3) for August 1977.
27
-------
2 ' V--2- 2 22-2 CALCULATED
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
2 4
21 23,' 22112-04 (T5)\I5
ป< * 1C-X ป j
000
2 2
7 \ \ \ (- \ T,-
4^8844 -6^2 2 MEASURED
Figure 12. SO2 concentrations (/jg/m3) for April 1977.
28
-------
CALCULATED
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
7 L.Oi
"' --' \ > \
7. r -6 ' a y---
T 6
MEASURED
Figure 13. SO^ concentrations (/ug/m3) for April 1977.
29
-------
2 CALCULATED
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SMO*N APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
4 8
884
MEASURED
Figure 14. S02 concentrations (jug/m3) for October 1977.
30
-------
0
4 CALCULATED
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
8 7/ -.7,--7-- 6 7\ 5
MEASURED
Figure 15. S04 concentrations (/jg/m3) for October 1977.
31
-------
(Bhumralkar et al., 1979), in which stabilities and mixing heights are calculated from the
meteorological data and used to control the growth of the puff. Also, in all of the seasons, the
measured S02 and SO4 concentrations tend to be higher than the calculated values over the
Great Plains. As discussed for the winter season, this would be a result of:
. Unrepresentativeness of measured data
ซ Neglect of emissions from outside the region
Neglect of natural emissions (in ENAMAP-1 calculations).
The calculated annual concentrations for S02 and SO; are shown in Figure 16. Since
these have been obtained by averaging the results for January, April, August, and October, the
patterns are relatively smooth.
C. Dry and Wet Deposition Results
Figure 17 shows the calculated annual dry and wet depositions of S02and Figure 18
shows the calculated annual dry and wet depositions of SO*. These figures show the large
horizontal gradient of depositions west of the Mississippi River, which are caused by the sharp
decrease in sulfur emissions in this region. The annual dry deposition patterns for SO2 and
SO4 are very similar to those for concentration (compare with Figure 16). The annual wet
deposition patterns for SO2 and SO; tend to also reflect the effects of precipitation. For exam-
ple, the SO; wet deposition amount over Detroit (940 mg/m2) is less than that over Chicago
(1050 mg/m2), where there was more rainfall. However, the SO; dry deposition amount over
Detroit (740 mg/m2) is slightly greater than that over Chicago (700 mg/m2). The effects of
rainfall are most noticeable in the individual seasonal results for the dry and wet depositions
that are provided in Appendix A.
D. Interregional Exchanges
Tables 6 and 7 show the annual and seasonal sulfur* exchanges between the different
regions of Figure 2. The numerals 1 through 13 at the left of columns and the top of rows in
the matrix of Tables 6 and 7 (as well as all other similar tables in the report showing
interregional exchanges) should not be confused with EPA regions. These numbers have been
assigned here merely to facilitate the interpretation of numbers included in the matrix in terms
of emitter and receptor regions. An example of how to interpret these tables follows: Table 6
shows the annual dry and wet sulfur depositions (in kilotons) resulting from emissions from
each of the 13 regions for 1977. The values along the diagonal of the matrix represent the
amounts emitted by each region and the amount deposited within the region itself due to its
own emissions; for example, 10 ktons or 55 percent of the sulfur deposition within the region
designated by the numeral 1, that is Region VIII-North, came from its own emissions. Similarly,
south Ontario receives from itself 820 ktons or 54 percent of the total sulfur deposition. The
table also shows the amount received by each region from other emitter regions. For example,
Region VIII-North also received 3 ktons or 19 percent from Region V-North; 2 ktons or 9 per-
cent from Region VII; and the remainder (1 7 percent) from the other regions. Tables 7(a)
through 7(d) provide an indication of the seasonal exchanges. For example, they show that
S02
The amount of sulfur (S) is given by S = -
32
-------
222
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALLiLS SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED 8Y PLUS SIGNS
Figure 16. Calculated annual concentrations of S02 and SO^ (pg/m3) for 1977.
33
-------
4 16
,56235-
16
DRY DEPOSITION
4 16 16 16 16 16
16
r
WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL WAxiWuV VAL^E'i SnO*:, APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
Figure 17. Calculated annual dry and wet depositions of S02 (10 mg/m2) for 1977.
34
-------
DRY DEPOSITION
16
WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL Wfl- ^uV VALUES SHOWN APPLY 47 POll.TS MARKED BY PLUS SlCNS
Figure 18. Calculated annual dry and wet depositions of SO^ (10 mg/m2} for 1977.
35
-------
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Region VIII-North produced 96 percent of the sulfur deposited within its area in January 1977,
but only 28 percent in October 1977. This reflects the importance of the prevailing winds dur-
ing these months.
The interregional exchange tables (6 and 7) may also be used to determine the exchanges
between combined regions, such as between the Canadian regions (regions listed as numbers
3 and 13) and the U.S. regions. For example, Table 6 shows that 1921 ktons of sulfur were
deposited over the Canadian regions (1514 ktons over S. Ontario and 407 ktons over S. Que-
bec). The Canadian provinces themselves contributed 1216 ktons or 63 percent of this sulfur
pollution, while the United States contributed 705 ktons or 37 percent.
The results for the interregional exchanges of S02 and 80+ wet and dry depositions are
given in Appendix B.
41
-------
SECTION 5
RESULTS OF MODEL APPLICATIONS
USING THE 1985 EMISSIONS SCENARIO
The ENAMAP-1 model was also applied using the projected emissions for 1985 shown
previously in Figure 6. In this application, the weather data for 1977 were assumed to be
representative of those in 1985. This assumption permited us to make a more direct evaluation
of the impact of the projected 1985 emission data. The 1985 annual results for the S02 and
SO4 concentration calculations are shown in Figure 19 (the seasonal results are included in
Appendix C). The differences in the annual results for 1985 (Figure 19) and those for 1977
(Figure 15) primarily reflect the projected changes in sulfur emissions from 1977 to 1985. In
general, the 1985 patterns are similar to those for 1977, however the values are smaller, con-
sistent with the emission fields shown in Figures 5 and 6. The maximum SO2 concentration
value over the Pittsburgh area in 1977 was 71 fj.g/m3, whereas in 1985 it is projected to be
reduced significantly to 33 ^g/m3. The maximum value over the Mobile, Alabama, area is pro-
jected to be reduced in 1985 to 6 fj.g/m3, from a value of 28 /ug/m3in 1977. However, over
the St. Louis area, a slight increase has been projected for S02 concentrations, from 25 ^glm3
in 1977 to 28 fj.g/m3 in 1985. The calculated SO4 concentration field for 1977 portrays a
large area whose values exceed 8 fig/m3 over the central eastern United States; whereas the
projections for 1985 do not exceed this value anywhere in the model domain.
The 1985 annual results for the S02 and SO^ dry and wet depositions are shown in Fig-
ures 20 and 21 (the seasonal results are included in Appendix C). These results may be com-
pared with those calculated for 1977, which were given in Figures 17 and 18. The deposition
values, like concentrations, are generally projected to be smaller in 1985 than in 1977, con-
sistent with the emission data. For example, the maximum SO4 dry deposition near Pittsburgh
is projected to be 640 mg/m2 in 1985 (Figure 21), whereas in 1977 it was 1 250 mg/m2 (Fig-
ure 18). However, it can be seen from these deposition figures that the 1985 sulfur pollution
over the western part of the domain is projected to be greater than in 1977 due to an increase
in the emission rate within these regions.
The projected annual and seasonal sulfur (S) interregional exchanges are given in Tables
8 and 9. The significance of the projected 1985 emissions can perhaps best be seen by com-
paring the annual percentage contributions listed in Table 8 with those given for 1977 (Table
6). For example, from Table 6 and 8 we find that:
The small Vlll-South region (eastern Colorado) during 1977 received about 92 percent
of its sulfur from its southeastern neighbor Region VI-East. In 1985, Vlll-South is pro-
jected to receive only about 37 percent from Region VI-East, while contributing 54 per-
cent to itself since its own emissions are projected to be significantly higher.
. Region VIII-North (North and South Dakota) during 1977 received 19 percent of its sul-
fur from Region V-North to its east, and 3 percent from Region VII to its southeast. In
1985, it is projected that it will receive only 7 percent from V-North and as much as 14
percent from VII.
42
-------
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
Figure 19. Calculated annual S02 and SO^ concentrations (M9/m3) for 1985.
43
-------
16 64
DRY DEPOSITION
16
4 16 64 64 64
16 16 WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
Figure 20. Calculated annual dry and wet depositions of S02 (10 mg/m2) for 1985.
44
-------
8 8
16
DRY DEPOSITION
6 8
e -a
WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
Figure 21. Calculated annual dry and wet depositions of SO^ (10 mg/m2) for 1985.
45
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50
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. Region VII contributed 137 ktons or 6 percent of the sulfur deposited in Region V-
South to its east during 1977. In 1985, its contribution is projected to increase to 173
ktons or 12 percent. (Contributions from most of the other regions are projected to
decrease.)
When comparing the tables for 1985 and 1977, particularly the percentage contribution
results, it should be noted that both Tables 8 and 9 and the tables of Appendix D do not
include any values for the Ontario or Quebec regions. This is because no projected 1985
emissions are available for these regions.
51
-------
SECTION 6
SUMMARY AND CONCLUDING REMARKS
In this study, the SRI/EURMAP-1 model was adapted for use over eastern North America.
The modified version, called ENAMAP-1, was applied to calculate sulfur concentrations, deposi-
tions, and exchanges for January, April, August, and October of 1977, as well as average values
for the year. The results from this application included:
. Graphical displays of the distribution of S02 and SO.T concentrations.
. Graphical displays of the distributions SO2 and SO^ wet and dry depositions.
Tabulated results showing the interregional exchanges of sulfur pollution.
The ENAMAP-1 model calculations were based on SURE emissions data supplemented
with NEDS emissions data. The calculations of S02 and SO * concentrations were evaluated by
comparing them with measured values taken from both the SURE and SAROAD data bases.
The calculated values showed reasonably good correspondence with the measured data. Gen-
eral differences between the two, particularly with regard to seasonal and latitudinal variations,
appear to be caused by the mixing-height values used in the model and an imperfect simulation
of stability and convection. This may be largely resolvable, either by the use of more represen-
tative mixing heights (e.g., those provided by Holzworth, 1972) or by the incorporation of various
refinements currently being used in our short-term EURMAP-2 model. Further research on this
question is required.
The ENAMAP-1 model was also used to calculate projected air pollution results for the
year 1985. These results largely show a reduction in the sulfur air pollution, particularly at
hot-spot areas. Although these types of results are highly dependent on the validity of the
emissions projection used, they do illustrate the usefulness of the model for studying the
impacts of various scenarios.
52
-------
REFERENCES
Bhumralkar, C.M., W.B. Johnson, R.L. Mancuso, and D.E. Wolf, 1979: "Regional Patterns and
Transfrontier Exchanges of Airborne Sulfur Pollution in Europe," Final Report to the
Umweltbundesamt (FRG), Project 4797, SRI International, Menlo Park, California.
Holzworth, G.C., 1972: "Mixing Heights, Wind Speeds, and Potential for Urban Air Pollution
Throughout the Contiguous United States," Environmental Protection Agency Report
AP101, Washington, D.C.
Johnson, W.B., D.E. Wolf, and R.L. Mancuso, 1978: "Long-term Regional Patterns and Transfron-
tier Exchanges of Airborne Sulfur Pollution in Europe," Atmos. Environ., 12, pp. 511 -527.
Mancuso, R.L., C.M. Bhumralkar, D.E. Wolf, and W.B. Johnson, 1978: "Evaluation and Sensitivity
Analysis of the European Regional Model of Air Pollution (EURMAP-1)," Progress Report,
SRI Project 4797, Contract LUP 411 515/111 A 315, SRI International, Menlo Park, Califor-
nia.
Pechan, E.H., 1978: "An Air Emissions Analysis of Energy Projections for the Annual Report to
Congress," Analysis Memorandum AM/IA/78-18, U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, D.C.
Perhac, R.M., 1978: "Sulfate Regional Experiment in Northeastern United States: The SURE
Program," Atmos. Environ., 12, pp. 641-647.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1978: 7975 National Emissions Report, EPA-450/2-78-
020.
United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service, 1976: "Proceedings of First Interna-
tional Symposium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem," USDA, Forest Service
General Technical Report NG-23.
53
-------
Appendix A
1977 CALCULATED SEASONAL RESULTS
FOR SO2 AND SO; DRY AND WET DEPOSITIONS (mg/m2)
54
-------
256
256
266
1 16 16
' DRY DEPOSITION
44 16
64
1 WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
S02 (mg/m2) JANUARY 1977
55
-------
646416
DRY DEPOSITION
16 16 16 64 64 1616
4 1616
16 16 166464
WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
SO, (mg/m2! AUGUST 1977
56
-------
4 16
164 41664 64
DRY DEPOSITION
16 16
16
416 16 16 64 64
|Q6"|(: WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
S02 (mg/m2) APRIL 1977
57
-------
A 16
64 25664 64
DRY DEPOSITION
16
16
4 4 16
6464 64 16,6 WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
S02 (mg/m2) OCTOBER 1977
58
-------
222
4 16 16
16 If
2,22 8
64
DRY DEPOSITION
32
, 2 8 8 '8 8
16
|68 6 WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
S02 (mg/m2) JANUARY 1977
-------
2 ...... 8 32 32
j 'If j ^ 4 I * ""w^ / *"
DRY DEPOSITION
222
4 16
WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
S07 (mg/rn2) AUGUST 1977
60
-------
16 16 16 16 16
,6 DRY DEPOSITION
1616 4 16 16 16
-2-8. 8 8 XZZ 32 32 32 32
S S J~f~ *\ \ * it'' \t/ *
16
4 48WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
SO: (mg/m2) APRIL 1977
61
-------
32 -32 DRY DEPOSITION
16 16
16
-332 WET DEPOSITION
ID ID
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SlCNS
;j (mg/m2) OCTOBER 1977
62
-------
Appendix B
1977 INTERREGIONAL EXCHANGE RESULTS
63
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71
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Appendix C
1 985 CALCULATED SEASONAL RESULTS
FOR SO2AND SO4 CONCENTRATIONS (Mg m=)
AND DRY AND WET DEPOSITIONS (mg/m^
72
-------
SO.
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
S02 and SOJ CONCENTRATIONS (/jg/m3) JANUARY 1985
73
-------
so,
so.
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
S02 and SOJ CONCENTRATIONS Uig/m3) AUGUST 1985
74
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2 2
SO,
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
S02 and SOJ CONCENTRATIONS Uig/m3) APRIL 1985
75
-------
SO,
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
S02 and SOJ CONCENTRATIONS (pg'm3) OCTOBER 1985
76
-------
64
'DRY DEPOSITION
4 16 64 64 64 64
|6 I6 WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
SO2 DEPOSITIONS (mg/m2) JANUARY 1985
77
-------
64 64 6416 16 16 16 64
DEPOSITION
4 16
64 64 64 16 16 1654
WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
SO, DEPOSITIONS (mg/m2) AUGUST 1985
78
-------
444
16
DRY DEPOSITION
4 44
'416
1616 " 16 16 16 *ซ WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
S02 DEPOSITIONS (mg/m2) APRIL 1985
79
-------
^664
DRY DEPOSITION
44
4 4
4 16
64 64
16 16
: +4a
WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SlONS
SO, DEPOSITIONS (mg/m2) OCTOBER 1985
80
-------
DRY DEPOSITION
8 -8 WET DEPOSITION
16
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
SO; DEPOSITIONS (mg/m2) JANUARY 1985
81
-------
DRY DEPOSITION
WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
SO; DEPOSITIONS (mg/m2) AUGUST 1985
82
-------
4 4
a a
2-. ---... 8 ,-,..
83 ' 8 ----8- 8
DRY DEPOSITION
4 4
2~28 WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
^ DEPOSITIONS (mg/m2) APRIL 1985
83
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88 88
16
DRY DEPOSITION
4 4
ฃ"ซ. 2,1.2. 888
X/x^fcSO) -VJ
16 16 44
6
8 8 WET DEPOSITION
LOCAL MAXIMUM VALUES SHOWN APPLY AT POINTS MARKED BY PLUS SIGNS
SO: DEPOSITIONS (mg/m2! OCTOBER 1985
84
-------
Appendix D
1985 INTERREGIONAL EXCHANGE RESULTS
NOTE
No results are shown for South Ontario and South Quebec
since there were no emissions from these regions (see text).
85
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