United States Environmental Protection Agency Atmospheric Research and Exposure Assessment Laboratory Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 Research and Development EPA/600/S4-91/026 Oct. 1991 &EPA Project Summary Example Environmental Assessment Report for Estuaries Jeffrey B. Frithsen, Jeroen Gerritsen, A. Frederick Holland, Stephen B. Weisberg, Mary C. Fabrizio, and Gary Saul The Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) Is a com- prehensive, multiagency program de- signed to assess the condition of the nation's ecological resources at na- tional, regional, and subregional scales. Data and information collected by EMAP will be integrated with data from other monitoring programs and envi- ronmental information of other types to produce periodic environmental as- sessment reports. These reports will assess the extent and magnitude of pollution impacts, report trends, de- scribe relationships among indicators of ecological condition, contaminant ex- posure, and environmental stress, Iden- tify the likely causes of poor ecological condition, and evaluate the overall ef- fectiveness of regulatory and controL programs on regional scales. This re- port presents an example environmen- tal assessment report for estuaries, one of seven types of ecological systems or resource categories to be monitored by EMAP. Using hypothetical data and a fictional estuarine system, the ex- ample demonstrates the types of infor- mation that will be provided by EMAP and how that Information can be Inter- preted in the context of national envi- ronmental policy. The preparation of the example report helped to develop an analytical framework for environ- mental monitoring data and to identify analytical and statistical tools needed to conduct regional environmental as- sessments. The framework and tools are discussed in separate sections of the report that describe how the ex- ample report was prepared and the les- sons learned by EMAP scientists in pre- paring it. This Project Summary was developed by EPA's Atmospheric Research and Exposure Assessment Laboratory, Re- search Triangle Park, NC, to announce key findings of the research project . that Is fully documented In a separate report of the same title (see Project Report ordering information at back). Introduction The Environmental Monitoring and As- sessment Program (EMAP) is a compre- hensive, multiagency program designed to assess the condition of the nation's ecological resources. The program is be- ing designed by the EPA and other Fed- eral agencies and is coordinated by EPA's Office of Research and Development. EMAP was initiated out of the need to make conclusive, statistically supportable statements about the cumulative effective- ness of regulatory programs, the overall condition of-the nation's environmental re- sources, and long-term trends in ecologi- cal condition. Such statements are not possible using the data and information from existing regulation and monitoring activities. The monitoring and assessment activi- ties of EMAP are designed to provide answers to the following questions: • What is the current status, extent, and geographic distribution of the nation's ecological resources? Printed on Recycled Paper ------- • What proportions of these resources are degrading or improving, where, and at what rate? • What are the possible reasons for adverse or improving conditions? • Are adversely affected ecosystems responding as expected to control and mitigation programs? EMAP will be implemented in seven types of ecosystems or ecological re- sources: estuaries and coastal waters, inland surface waters, the Great Lakes, wetlands, forests, arid lands, and agricul- tural lands. Information on the condition of each resource category will be pro- vided in the form of statistical summaries and environmental assessment reports. Statistical summaries will, be produced an- nually and will provide timely dissemina- tion of EMAP data in tabular and graphic form. Environmental assessment reports will be produced to integrate EMAP data with data from other monitoring programs and with environmental information of other types (e.g., NPDES permit discharge re- ports, USGS National Water Quality As- sessment (NAWQA) data, NOAA Status and Trends Program data). Assessment reports will: • assess the extent and magnitude of pollution impacts, • report trends, • describe the relationships among in- dicators of ecological condition, ex- posure, and stress, • identify the likely causes of poor eco- logical condition, • help identify emerging problems, and • evaluate the overall effectiveness of regulatory and control programs on regional scales. As currently envisioned, assessments will be conducted at four levels of environ^ mental complexity. At the first level, as- sessments will be focused on a particular environmental resource (forests, for ex- ample) within one biogeographic province or region. At the second level of integra- tion, assessments will focus on a particu- lar environmental resource across mul- tiple regions. For example, an assess- ment might be made of all east coast estuaries by integrating information col- lected in the Acadian, Virginian, Carolin- ian, and West Indian Provinces. The third level of assessment activity to be con- ducted by EMAP requires the integration of information and data across resource groups, for a complete assessment of con- ditions within a biogeographic province or region. This level of assessment may be made for particular EPA regions and would not only integrate and compare conditions within multiple types of environmental re- sources, but also attempt to identify how conditions and changes in conditions in one resource affect another. A specific assessment might address how changes in land use in watersheds impact the con- dition of surface waters and estuaries. Assessments that require integrating in- formation about multiple resources across multiple biogeographic provinces or re- gions are the fourth level of assessment activity envisioned for EMAP. These as- sessments will describe the conditions of environmental resources at the national level. About a year ago, EMAP scientists as- sembled to discuss how EMAP assess- ments might be conducted and what types of analytical and statistical tools would be needed for these assessments. The ob- jective of these discussions was to design and produce an example EMAP assess- ment report for one ecological resource in one biogeographic region (a first level as- sessment). The purpose of this document is to outline how the example report was developed, and document the lessons learned in preparing it. Procedure Estuaries were chosen as the ecologi- cal resource for the example assessment report because the first demonstration project for EMAP was being conducted in estuaries. The development of the ex- ample, assessment report required the analysis of a data with spatial and tempo- ral scales similar to those expected for EMAP data sets; however, no comparable studies of estuarine systems over large regional scales and decades exist. Most existing datasets that have .broad spatial coverage include only a few years of data, and data collected over long time periods usually have restricted geographic cover- age. Consequently, a dataset was fabri- cated to provide the spatial and temporal resolution needed to complete the example assessment report. The dataset developed for the example assessment spans 12-years, representing three cycles of the four-year interpenetrat- ing sample design of EMAP. The dataset was developed in four steps. First, a subset of the indicators proposed for the estuarine component of EMAP was se- lected based upon knowledge of the data commonly available, for estuaries. The selected indicators included bottom dwell- ing (benthic) community abundance, bio- mass and number of species, three con- taminants in fish tissues (mercury, lead, and total DDT), and one fictitious fish tis- sue contaminant (contamexx) represent- ing a contaminant that would contribute to environmental degradation in the future. These indicators of ecological response were supplemented with indicators of en- vironmental exposure (i.e., concentrations of mercury, lead, total DDT, and contamexx in sediments, sediment toxic- ity, and dissolved oxygen concentrations) and habitat indicators (i.e., salinity and sediment type). Second, data for the selected indicators from various east coast estuaries were assembled to define spatial and temporal ranges and variability that can be expected in EMAP data. East coast estuaries were selected because more information is gen- erally available and because"an "EMAP demonstration project was occurring at the same time in the Virginian Province (Cape Cod to the mouth of Chesapeake Bay). Using these data and various interpola- tion techniques, a one-year base dataset was developed for all EMAP sample sta- tions in the estuaries of the Virginian Prov- ince. The third step consisted of superimpos- ing various trends onto the base dataset for years 2 through 12. Trends were introduced into the fabricated dataset by imposing proportionate changes on val- ues in the base dataset. Trends repre- sented: • monotonic increases or decreases of a constant amount for each year and for all stations, • improvements of conditions at the worst stations due to the overall suc- cesses of regulatory and control measures, • degradation of conditions at the best stations due to population growth and • significant increase in the manufac- ture and agricultural use of contamexx in one of the administra- tive regions of the province. The fourth step in development of the fabricated dataset was to convolute the geography of the Virginian Province while maintaining the proportionate distribution of the number and area of estuaries among the three classes of estuaries (large estu- aries, large tidal rivers, and small estuar- ies). This convolution was necessary to prevent the example assessment from be- ing mistaken for an actual assessment of estuaries within the Virginian Province. A fictional island was created by rearranging portions of coastline from the Virginian ------- Province. Land use and watershed bound- aries were established arbitrarily, and the island was split into two administrative regions. Collectively, these regions were called Estuaria in the example report. Early in the development of the example assessment report, it became apparent that information about various indicators would have to be integrated to make mean- ingful statements about the overall condi- tion of estuaries. Such integrated state- ments were made using indices, or math- ematical aggregations of response indica- tors. Although individual response indica- tors provide information concerning spe- cific aspects of environmental condition, overall statements regarding the condition of resources are more useful to managers and non-scientific audiences. Single, in- tegrated statements can be communicated and understood more easily, and are more appropriate for measuring and communi- cating progress towards environmental goals. The degree to which information and data will be aggregated by EMAP scien- tists to create indices of ecological or en- vironmental condition is unknown. In the example report, a benthic community in- dex was developed and used to represent a biological condition index. A human use index based on fish tissue contami- nants was developed to represent aspects of estuaries valued by society. However, an overall estuarine condition index was not developed because of reservations concerning combining disparate indices such as the biological condition index and human use index. Most likely, the devel- opment of an overall index will involve a cadre of specialists from both the natural and social sciences and will not be com- pleted by resource group scientists alone. Discussion The development of assessment meth- odologies is an important part of the plan- ning and research activities of EMAP. The preparation of this example report repre- sents a first step in this development. It is unlikely that this example report will be- come the template for future EMAP as- sessment reports. However, the lessons learned from producing the report will be useful in shaping assessment methodolo- gies and approaches. The resulting example report is valu- able to potential EMAP clients and per- forms the following important functions. The report provides a "preview" of EMAP data and assessment reports to potential clients; a tool (i.e., the example dataset) for evaluating alternative analytical ap- proaches and selected aspects of the sam- pling design; identifies technical problems and helps establish priorities for address- ing those problems; and begins to edu- cate and train a team of scientists to per- form actual EMAP assessments. The lessons learned in preparing this example report are applicable to other EMAP resource groups. The exercise of producing the example report resulted in the following guidelines for analyzing EMAP data and producing an actual as- sessment: • Because of the diverse nature of the data, the approach for analyzing, in- terpreting, and presenting the data must be flexible. This is especially important for long-term programs, .such as EMAP, in which program elements may change over time. • Assessments of ecological condition that are useful to resource manage- ment and policy development require a clear definition of nominal and subnominal conditions and establish- ment of subnominal-marginal thresh- olds for indicators and indices. • Investigation of associations will re- quire data for applicable stressor in- dicators (e.g., human population den- sity, atmospheric deposition, load- ings). • Statistical methods will need to be identified for investigation of asso- ciations between stressor indicators at regional or watershed resolution and exposure and response indica- tor data at much finer spatial resolu- tion. • Sufficient time must be allowed for exploratory statistical analyses and for the assessment of information. Analytical investigations of complex and varied data cannot be constrained by rigid strategies for data analysis; analysts must be free to explore the data in ways that may be dead ends but also may lead to a new understanding of the relation- ship between natural and anthropo- genic stresses and environmental condition. Assessment reports communicate infor- mation that culminates years of effort by each resource group. The production of these reports will require far more sophis- ticated analyses and careful decision-mak- ing than data reporting in annual statisti- cal summaries. As an example of this difference, we call attention to the experi- ence of NAPAP (National Acid Precipita- tion Assessment Program), which required tremendous effort at the end of the pro- gram to produce an integrated assess- ment of acidic deposition. EMAP, with a broader scope than NAPAP, will require not only greater efforts, but continuous dedication to the objective of integrated assessment in order to provide useful in- formation and insightful assessments of ecological condition. iril.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1991 - £48-080/40105 ------- Jeffery B. Frithsen, Jeroen Gerrhsen, A. Frederick Holland, and Stephen B. Weisberg are with Versar, Inc., Columbia, MD 21045. Mary C. Fabrizio is with Mantech Environmental Technology, Inc., Research Triangle Park, NC 27709. Gary Saul is with FTN Associates, Ltd., Austin, TX 78741. Linda KIrkland is the EPA Project Officer (see below). The complete report, entitled "Example Environmental Assessment Report for Estuaries,''(OrderNo. PB92-100338/AS; Cost: $19.00;subject to change) will be available only from: National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 Telephone: (703)-487-4650 The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at: Office of Modeling, Monitoring Systems and Quality Assurance U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington, DC 20460 United States Environmental Protection Agency Center for Environmental Research Information Cincinnati, OH 45268 BULK RATE POSTAGE & FEES PAID EPA PERMIT No. G-35 Official Business Penalty for Private Use $300 EPA/600/S4-91/026 ------- |