United States
                     Environmental Protection
                     Agency
  Atmospheric Research and Exposure
  Assessment Laboratory
  Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
                     Research and Development
  EPA/600/S4-91/026  Oct. 1991
&EPA       Project  Summary
                     Example Environmental
                     Assessment Report for  Estuaries
                     Jeffrey B. Frithsen, Jeroen Gerritsen, A. Frederick Holland, Stephen B.
                     Weisberg, Mary C. Fabrizio, and Gary Saul
                      The  Environmental  Monitoring and
                     Assessment Program (EMAP) Is a com-
                     prehensive, multiagency program de-
                     signed to assess the condition  of the
                     nation's ecological resources at na-
                     tional, regional, and subregional scales.
                     Data and information collected by
                     EMAP will be integrated with data from
                     other monitoring programs  and envi-
                     ronmental information of other types
                     to produce periodic environmental as-
                     sessment reports. These reports will
                     assess the extent and magnitude  of
                     pollution  impacts, report trends, de-
                     scribe relationships among indicators
                     of ecological condition, contaminant ex-
                     posure, and environmental stress, Iden-
                     tify the likely causes of poor ecological
                     condition, and evaluate the overall ef-
                     fectiveness  of regulatory  and controL
                     programs on regional scales. This re-
                     port presents an example environmen-
                     tal assessment report for estuaries, one
                     of seven types of ecological systems
                     or resource categories to be monitored
                     by EMAP. Using hypothetical data and
                     a fictional estuarine system, the ex-
                     ample demonstrates the types of infor-
                     mation that will be provided  by EMAP
                     and how that Information can be Inter-
                     preted in the context of national envi-
                     ronmental policy. The preparation of
                    the example report helped to develop
                    an analytical framework for environ-
                     mental monitoring data and to identify
                    analytical and statistical tools needed
                    to conduct regional environmental as-
                    sessments.  The framework and tools
                    are discussed in separate sections of
 the report that describe how the ex-
 ample report was prepared and the les-
 sons learned by EMAP scientists in pre-
 paring it.
   This Project Summary was developed
 by EPA's Atmospheric Research and
 Exposure Assessment Laboratory, Re-
 search Triangle Park, NC, to announce
 key findings of the  research project
. that Is fully documented In a separate
 report of the  same title (see Project
 Report ordering information at back).

 Introduction
   The Environmental Monitoring and As-
 sessment Program (EMAP) is a compre-
 hensive,  multiagency program designed
 to assess the  condition  of the nation's
 ecological resources. The program is be-
 ing designed by the EPA and other Fed-
 eral agencies and is coordinated by EPA's
 Office of Research and Development.
 EMAP was initiated out of the need to
 make conclusive, statistically  supportable
 statements about the cumulative effective-
 ness of regulatory programs, the overall
 condition of-the nation's environmental re-
 sources,  and long-term trends in ecologi-
 cal condition.  Such statements are not
 possible  using the  data and  information
 from existing regulation and monitoring
 activities.
   The monitoring and assessment activi-
 ties of EMAP are  designed  to provide
 answers to the following questions:

   • What is the current status,  extent,
     and geographic distribution of the
     nation's ecological resources?
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   • What proportions of these resources
     are degrading or improving, where,
     and at what rate?
   • What are the possible reasons for
     adverse or improving conditions?
   • Are adversely affected ecosystems
     responding as expected  to control
     and mitigation programs?

  EMAP will be implemented in seven
types of ecosystems or  ecological re-
sources:  estuaries and coastal waters,
inland surface waters, the Great Lakes,
wetlands, forests, arid lands, and agricul-
tural lands.  Information on the condition
of each resource  category  will be pro-
vided in the form of statistical summaries
and  environmental  assessment  reports.
Statistical summaries will, be produced an-
nually and will provide timely dissemina-
tion of EMAP data  in tabular and graphic
form. Environmental assessment reports
will be produced to integrate EMAP data
with data from other monitoring programs
and with environmental information of other
types (e.g., NPDES permit discharge re-
ports, USGS National Water Quality As-
sessment  (NAWQA) data, NOAA Status
and Trends Program data).  Assessment
reports will:

   • assess the extent and magnitude of
     pollution impacts,
   • report trends,
   • describe the relationships among in-
     dicators of ecological condition, ex-
     posure, and stress,
   • identify the likely causes of poor eco-
     logical condition,
   • help identify emerging problems, and
   • evaluate the overall effectiveness of
     regulatory and control programs on
     regional scales.

  As currently  envisioned, assessments
will be conducted at four levels of environ^
mental complexity.   At the first level, as-
sessments will be focused on a particular
environmental resource  (forests, for ex-
ample) within one biogeographic province
or region. At the second level of integra-
tion, assessments will focus on a particu-
lar  environmental  resource  across mul-
tiple regions.  For example, an  assess-
ment might be  made of  all east  coast
estuaries by  integrating information col-
lected in the Acadian, Virginian,  Carolin-
ian, and West Indian Provinces. The third
level of assessment activity to be con-
ducted by EMAP requires the  integration
of information and  data across resource
groups, for a complete assessment of con-
ditions within a biogeographic province or
region. This level of assessment may be
made for particular EPA regions and would
not only integrate and compare conditions
within multiple types of environmental re-
sources, but also attempt to identify how
conditions and changes in  conditions  in
one resource  affect another.  A specific
assessment might address  how changes
in land use in watersheds impact the con-
dition of  surface  waters and  estuaries.
Assessments that require integrating in-
formation about multiple resources across
multiple biogeographic provinces or re-
gions are  the  fourth level of assessment
activity envisioned for EMAP. These as-
sessments will describe the conditions of
environmental resources  at the  national
level.
  About a year ago, EMAP scientists as-
sembled to discuss how EMAP assess-
ments might be conducted and what types
of analytical and statistical tools  would be
needed for these assessments.  The ob-
jective of these discussions was to design
and produce  an example EMAP assess-
ment report for one ecological resource in
one biogeographic region (a first level as-
sessment). The purpose of this document
is to outline how the  example report was
developed, and  document the  lessons
learned in preparing it.


Procedure
  Estuaries were chosen as the ecologi-
cal resource for the example assessment
report  because the  first demonstration
project for EMAP was being conducted in
estuaries.   The development of the ex-
ample, assessment report  required the
analysis of a data with spatial and tempo-
ral scales  similar to  those expected for
EMAP data sets; however, no comparable
studies of  estuarine  systems over large
regional scales and decades exist.  Most
existing datasets that have .broad spatial
coverage include only a few years of data,
and data collected over long time periods
usually have restricted geographic cover-
age.  Consequently, a dataset was fabri-
cated to provide the spatial and temporal
resolution needed to complete the example
assessment report.
  The dataset developed for the example
assessment spans 12-years, representing
three cycles of the four-year interpenetrat-
ing sample design of EMAP. The dataset
was  developed in four  steps.   First, a
subset of the  indicators proposed for the
estuarine  component  of  EMAP was se-
lected based  upon knowledge of the data
commonly  available, for estuaries.   The
selected indicators included bottom dwell-
ing (benthic) community abundance, bio-
mass and number of species, three con-
taminants in fish tissues (mercury, lead,
and total DDT), and one fictitious fish tis-
sue contaminant (contamexx) represent-
ing a contaminant that would contribute to
environmental  degradation  in the future.
These  indicators of ecological response
were supplemented with indicators of en-
vironmental exposure (i.e., concentrations
of  mercury,  lead, total  DDT,  and
contamexx in sediments, sediment toxic-
ity, and dissolved oxygen concentrations)
and habitat indicators  (i.e., salinity  and
sediment type).
  Second, data for the selected indicators
from various east  coast estuaries were
assembled to define spatial and temporal
ranges and variability that can be expected
in EMAP data. East coast estuaries were
selected because more  information is gen-
erally available and  because"an "EMAP
demonstration project was occurring at the
same time in the Virginian Province (Cape
Cod to  the mouth  of Chesapeake Bay).
Using these data  and  various interpola-
tion techniques, a one-year base dataset
was developed for all EMAP sample sta-
tions in the estuaries of the Virginian Prov-
ince.
  The third step consisted of superimpos-
ing various trends  onto the base dataset
for years 2 through 12.   Trends were
introduced into the fabricated dataset by
imposing  proportionate changes  on val-
ues in  the base dataset.  Trends repre-
sented:

   • monotonic increases  or decreases
     of a constant amount  for each  year
     and for all stations,
   • improvements of  conditions at the
     worst stations due to the overall suc-
     cesses  of regulatory  and  control
     measures,
   • degradation of conditions at  the best
     stations due to population growth and
   • significant increase in the manufac-
     ture  and  agricultural  use  of
     contamexx in one of the administra-
     tive regions of the province.

  The  fourth step  in development of  the
fabricated dataset was to convolute  the
geography of the Virginian Province while
maintaining the proportionate distribution
of the number and area of estuaries among
the three classes of estuaries (large estu-
aries, large tidal rivers, and small estuar-
ies). This convolution was necessary to
prevent the example assessment from  be-
ing mistaken for an actual assessment of
estuaries within the Virginian Province. A
fictional island was created by rearranging
portions of coastline from the  Virginian

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Province. Land use and watershed bound-
aries were established arbitrarily, and the
island  was split into two administrative
regions.  Collectively, these regions were
called Estuaria in the example report.
  Early in the development of the example
assessment report, it became  apparent
that information  about various indicators
would have to be integrated to make mean-
ingful  statements about the overall condi-
tion of estuaries.  Such integrated state-
ments were made using indices, or math-
ematical aggregations of response indica-
tors. Although individual response indica-
tors provide information concerning spe-
cific aspects  of  environmental condition,
overall statements regarding the condition
of resources are  more useful to managers
and non-scientific audiences.  Single,  in-
tegrated statements can be communicated
and understood more easily, and are more
appropriate for measuring and communi-
cating progress towards environmental
goals.
  The degree to which  information and
data will  be  aggregated by EMAP scien-
tists to create indices of ecological or en-
vironmental condition is  unknown.  In the
example  report,  a  benthic community  in-
dex was developed and used to represent
a biological  condition index.   A  human
use index based on fish tissue contami-
nants  was developed to represent aspects
of estuaries valued by society.  However,
an overall estuarine  condition index was
not developed because of  reservations
concerning  combining  disparate  indices
such as the biological condition index and
human use index.  Most likely, the devel-
opment of an overall index will  involve a
cadre  of specialists from both the natural
and social sciences and will not be com-
pleted by resource group scientists alone.

Discussion
  The development of assessment meth-
odologies is an important part of the plan-
ning and research activities of EMAP. The
preparation of this example report repre-
sents a first step in this development.  It is
unlikely that this example report will be-
come the template for future EMAP as-
sessment reports.  However, the lessons
learned from  producing the report will be
useful in shaping assessment methodolo-
gies and approaches.
  The resulting example report is valu-
able to potential EMAP clients  and per-
forms the following important functions.
The report provides a "preview"  of EMAP
data and assessment reports to potential
clients; a tool (i.e., the example dataset)
for  evaluating alternative analytical  ap-
proaches and selected aspects of the sam-
pling design;  identifies technical  problems
and helps establish priorities for address-
ing  those problems; and begins to  edu-
cate and train a team  of scientists to per-
form actual EMAP assessments.
  The lessons learned  in preparing  this
example report are applicable  to  other
EMAP resource groups.  The exercise of
producing the example report resulted in
the following guidelines for analyzing
EMAP data and producing an actual as-
sessment:

   • Because of the diverse nature of the
     data, the approach for analyzing, in-
     terpreting, and presenting  the  data
     must be flexible.  This  is especially
     important for  long-term programs,
     .such as EMAP, in which  program
     elements may change over time.
   • Assessments of ecological  condition
     that are useful to resource  manage-
     ment and policy development require
     a  clear definition  of  nominal  and
     subnominal conditions and establish-
     ment of  subnominal-marginal thresh-
     olds for  indicators and indices.
   • Investigation of associations will re-
     quire data for applicable stressor in-
     dicators (e.g., human population den-
     sity, atmospheric deposition,  load-
     ings).
   • Statistical methods  will  need to be
     identified for investigation of asso-
     ciations between stressor indicators
     at regional or watershed resolution
     and exposure and response indica-
     tor data at much finer spatial resolu-
     tion.
   • Sufficient time must be allowed for
     exploratory statistical analyses and
     for the assessment of  information.
     Analytical    investigations   of
     complex and varied data cannot be
     constrained  by  rigid strategies  for
     data analysis; analysts must be free
     to explore the data in ways that may
     be dead ends but also may lead to a
     new understanding  of the  relation-
     ship between natural and anthropo-
     genic  stresses  and environmental
     condition.

  Assessment reports communicate infor-
mation that  culminates years of effort by
each resource group. The production of
these reports will require far more sophis-
ticated analyses and careful decision-mak-
ing than data reporting in annual statisti-
cal summaries.  As an example of this
difference, we call  attention to the experi-
ence of NAPAP (National Acid Precipita-
tion Assessment Program), which required
tremendous  effort  at the  end of  the pro-
gram  to produce  an  integrated  assess-
ment of acidic deposition. EMAP, with a
broader scope than NAPAP,  will require
not only greater  efforts,  but continuous
dedication to the objective of integrated
assessment  in order to provide useful in-
formation  and insightful assessments of
ecological condition.
                                                                       iril.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1991 - £48-080/40105

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   Jeffery B. Frithsen, Jeroen Gerrhsen, A. Frederick Holland, and Stephen B.
      Weisberg are with Versar, Inc., Columbia, MD 21045. Mary C. Fabrizio is with
      Mantech Environmental Technology, Inc., Research Triangle Park, NC 27709.
      Gary Saul is with FTN Associates, Ltd., Austin, TX 78741.
   Linda KIrkland is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
   The complete report, entitled "Example Environmental Assessment Report for
      Estuaries,''(OrderNo. PB92-100338/AS; Cost: $19.00;subject to change) will
      be available only from:
           National Technical Information Service
           5285 Port Royal Road
           Springfield, VA 22161
           Telephone: (703)-487-4650
   The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
           Office of Modeling, Monitoring Systems and Quality Assurance
           U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
           Washington, DC  20460

 United States
 Environmental Protection
 Agency
Center for Environmental
Research Information
Cincinnati, OH 45268
      BULK RATE
POSTAGE & FEES PAID
         EPA
   PERMIT No. G-35
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use $300
EPA/600/S4-91/026

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