United States Environmental Protection Agency Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory Research Triangle Park NC 27711 Research and Development EPA/600/S8-90/073 Jan. 1991 EPA Project Summary National- and State-level Emissions Estimates of Radiatively Important Trace Gases (RITGs) from Anthropogenic Sources Stephen Piccot and Mark Saeger This report documents the develop- ment of national- and state-level emis- sions estimates of radiatively important trace gases (RITGs) that were prepared in support of the staff committee of the National Governors' Association's Taslc Force on Global Climate Change. Emis- sions estimates are presented for the principal anthropogenic sources of car- bon dioxide (CO2), methane (CHJ, chlo- rof luorocarbons (CFCs), and ozone pre- cursors. The national annual emission!} of CO, CH4, CFCs, volatile organic com- pounds (VOCs), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and carbon monoxide (CO), in units of thousands of tons per year, are esti- mated to be 5,517,223; 33,000; 440; 22,072; 20,541; and 60,938, respectively. Emissions were estimated for these spe- cies from readily available databases and other information. Thus, the emis- sions estimates presented in this report are not totals of all possible sources and should be Interpreted only as estimate!! of the contributions of some of the major source categories. No estimates of any natural sources of these compounds are presented in this report. The data sources used to estimate the emissions are dis- cussed and referenced. This Project Summary was developed by ERA'S Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC, to announce key findings of the research project that is fully docu- mented in a separate report of the same title (see Project Report ordering infor- mation at back). Background • Increased atmospheric concentrations! of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other radiatively important trace gases (RITGs) — methane (Cf-y, nitrous oxide (N2O), chlorofluorocar- bons (CFCs), and tropospheric ozone (O3) — have raised concerns about potential climate change among the general public and members of the scientific community. Since volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOX), and carbon mon- oxide (CO) are involved in atmospheric chemistry processes which form tropo- spheric ozone, they are also of concern. Much uncertainty exists about how cli- mate change may affect specific geographic regions or ecological systems. To reduce this uncertainty, research is underway to estimate the potential magnitude and tim- ing of climate change, the relative contribu- tion of anthropogenic and natural sources of the implicated trace gases, the atmo- spheric/chemical processes in which these gases participate, and the extent of eco- logical effects resulting from climate change. Emissions from human activities such as fossil fuel combustion, industry, and ag- riculture are a primary cause of the increas- ing concentrations of RITGs in the Earth's atmosphere. In order to evaluate the extent to which these human activities will influence future atmospheric composition and climate, it is necessary to characterize all significant sources and to identify their locations and strengths. Project Description This report presents state-level esti- mates of emissions of RITGs — with the exception of N2O — resulting from anthro- pogenic activities. The emissions estimates presented here were developed in a short time frame to assist the National Gover- nors' Association and should be consid- ered preliminary estimates. Considerable Printed on Recycled Paper ------- research Is currently underway which could improve these estimates, particularly for gases (such as CH4) whose emission esti- mates have a high degree of uncertainty. The geographic scope of the emissions estimates includes the 48 contiguous U.S. and the District of Columbia. Table 1 cross-references the gases and sources for which emissions estimates were devel- oped. These emissions estimates were developed from readily available databases and include most of the significant sources of RITG emissions. Some potentially sig- nificant sources were not included because, at the time this report was prepared, repre- sentative data were not readily available (e.g., CH4 emissions from surface mining operations and manure piles were not in- cluded). Emissions of CO2 from cement manufacturing were not included because of its relatively minor role on the national scale and because of project resource con- straints. The state-level emissions estimates presented here are for sources within the boundaries of each state. Therefore, the results of this study do not quantify the emissions which occur outside a state that may be attributable to activities within the state. For example, power plants and fuel production facilities located outside of Cali- fornia provide electricity and natural gas to users within the state. Although the energy is provided to satisfy demand in California, the emissions associated with these sources are not attributed to California. Rather, they are attributed to the state in which the power plants and natural gas transmission lines are located. Clearly, significant greenhouse gas emissions may be associated with the interstate transport of energy and other commodities. However, developing the energy and commodity balances neces- sary to take this into account was beyond the scope of this study. Historically, major anthropogenic emis- sions inventory development activities per- formed by the Environmental Protection Agency have focused on issues related to the potential health effects of air pollutants. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and CFCs have not been associated with health hazards; therefore, the available emissions estimates for these species are not as complete as for other air pollutants. Tropospheric ozone is recognized as a health hazard; however, ozone is not emit- ted directly from anthropogenic activities. Ozone is formed in the near surface tropo- sphere by a complex reaction mechanism that involves reactive hydrocarbons (VOCs), NO,, and CO in the presence of sunlight. Table 1. Sources and Gases Included in This Study Source Trace Gases Fuel Combustion8 Industrial Residential " Commercial Transportation Electric Power Plants Major Sources of Methane11 Landfills Underground Coal Mines Domestic Animals General Industrial/Othet0 Natural Gas Transmission/Distribution Sources of Chlorofluorocarbons Refrigeration Air conditioning Blowing Agents Solvents Aerosols CO* CO, A/O> VOC CFC-11, CFC-12,HCFC-22 CFC-113 Other Industrial Processes CO, WO, VOC a Fuels include coal, oil, natural gas, biomass, gasoline, diesel, process gas. 6 Note that rice cultivation is not included here and is not thought to be a major source in the U.S. Emissions from manure piles are also not included but these sources may be significant in the U.S. 0 Includes the methane emissions from significant sources included in the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) inventory: transportation, wood combustion, coke manufacturing, and others. Discussion of Results State total emissions for each RITG are listed in Table 2. Emissions estimates are included for CO2, CH4, NOX, VOCs, CO, and CFCs. Emissions were aggregated at the state level to assist in interpretive analyses of the relative contributions of various states and RITGs to the national totals of these emissions. The national summary presented in Table 2 clearly shows the dominance of CO2 emissions among the principal green- house gases. The anthropogenic sources of CO2 are primarily fossil fuel and biomass combustion. The largest fuel combustion sector in the U.S. is electric utilities. Indus- trial combustion, commercial/residential combustion, and transportation are other important fuel combustion activities. The utility sector is estimated to contribute 35% of the total CO2 emissions. Industrial com- bustion and transportation fuel use are es- timated to contribute 26 and 24%, respec- tively. In general, these sources are rea- sonably well characterized, particularly the fossil fuel sources, and the uncertainty as- sociated with these emissions estimates is low. Of the CH4 sources examined in this study, offgasing from landfills is the most significant national source of methane. Methane emissions from landfills are esti- mated to account for 48% of the total emissions associated with all the sources examined here. Emissions associated with farm animals are the second largest source (21% of the total) while emissions from natural gas pipeline transmission/distribu- tion systems are the third largest (14% of the total). Underground coal mines contrib- ute 10% of CH4 emissions to the national total. This estimate understates emissions from coal mines because it does not include CH4 emissions from surface mines. The emissions from surface mining operations are potentially significant, but available data are inadequate for estimating state level emissions. Current estimates of emissions from the most significant sources of CH4 (landfill offgasing, coal mines, domestic animals, natural gas transmission/distribu- tion, and general industrial) are highly un- certain. Although the national total emissions of CFCs presented in Table 2 are orders of magnitude less than the emissions totals for other RITGs included in these analy- ses, the relative importance of CFCs on global climate change processes should ------- Table 2. State Level Emissions Estimates for All Radiatively Important Trace State Name Alabama Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Dist. of Col. Florida Georgia Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Totals1 CO 1,274 701 653 5,436 1,139 532 177 93 2,605 1,763 1,065 2,406 2,026 674 673 1,020 1,654 335 785 924 2,282 1,315 783 1,303 865 402 275 229 1,156 752 2,412 1,839 188 2,857 989 1,056 2,496 121 882 382 1,339 4,620 745 160 1,404 1,948 578 1,250 374 60,938 VOCs 498 240 223 2,185 301 231 87 30 797 604 186 947 557 214 243 410 626 105 276 416 778 423 270 494 163 126 82 82 595 165 989 669 62 1,008 342 302 904 68 363 87 535 2,329 168 49 572 455 307 420 . 89 22,072 NOX 460 248 238 1,245 293 128 68 20 680 588 88 969 885 267 423 520 763 67 282 274 656 354 237 536 155 165 113 55 356 283 628 501 185 1,017 398 169 956 30 258 73 508 2,512 171 25 390 274 457 348 224 20,541 Gases (103 tons/year) CHt 1,200 350 370 2,200 670 290 61 54 1,100 650 230 1,400 710 640 660 700 800 100 360 530 1,000 660 370 810 260 540 130 86 710 260 1,500 640 190 1,200 770 380 1,800 85 340 310 630 3,100 280 70 1,200 530 1,100 690 160 33,000 C02 129,163 68,031 71,113 452,615 73,512 41,903 16,401 5,512 161,178 165,060 14,197 345,814 264,793 71,620 77,557 124,089 213,892 21,925 81,857 83,989 189,598 83,502 51,722 120,585 30,155 37,776 24,821 15,318 99,472 65,429 201,125 119,947 56,299 286,392 101,290 36,216 . 270,653 9,275 60,078 14,146 117,431 517,239 47,543 7,871 103,508 79,805 108,234 104,299 73,273 5,517,223 CFC 7 6 4 49 6 7 •f 1 20 11 2 20 12 5 4 7 7 2 8 12 18 8 5 9 1 3 1 2 14 2 29 17 1 20 5 4 21 2 7 1 10 29 3 1 12 7 3 9 1 440 ' Differences between national totals and the sum of state totals are the result of roundoff error. not be minimized. These compounds have lifetimes that are on the order of tens of years; therefore, past emissions as well as current and future emissions will have impacts. The extremely long lifetimes of these compounds result in their accumu- lation in the stratosphere, where they disrupt the stratospheric ozone equilibrium. In addition to having greater lifetimes, CFCs are generally much more radiatively active on a per molecule basis than the other greenhouse gases. The principal CFC compounds are CFC-12, HCFC-22, CFC-11 and CFC-113. These compounds are used in many different applications including air conditioning, refrigeration, blowing agents, solvents, and in aerosols; and national emissions for 1985 are estimated to be 440,000 tons. The most significant of these applications include activities related to air conditioning and refrigeration. Data per- taining to emissions estimates from these sources are less readily available and a great deal of uncertainty is associated with them. U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1991/548-028/20158 ------- Stephen Pkcot and Mark Saegerare with Alliance Technologies Corp., Chapel Hill, NC 27514. Julian W. Jones is the EPA Project Officer (see below). The complete report, entitled "National- and State-level Emissions Estimates of Radiatively Important Trace Gases (RITGs) from Anthropogenic Sources," (Order No. PB91-103572/AS; Cost: $17.00, (subject to change) will be available only from: National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield,VA22161 Telephone: 703-487-4650 The EPA Project Off her can be contacted at: Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Research Tnangle Park, NC 27711 United States Environmental Protection Agency Center for Environmental Research Information Cincinnati. OH 45268 BULK RATE POSTAGE & FEES PAID EPA PERMIT NO. G-35 Official Business Penalty for Private Use $300 EPA/600/S8-90/073 ------- |