United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Air and Energy Engineering
Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Research and Development
EPA/600/SR-94/215
June 1995
EPA Project Summary
Multiple Projections System
(MPS) Version 2.0:
User's Manual
Charles C. Monroe, T. Allan Dean, and William R. Barnard
The Clean Air Act Amendments of
1990 called for Reasonable Further
Progress (RFP) inventories to be sub-
mitted to EPA for the purpose of dem-
onstrating strategies by which a 15%
reduction in volatile organic compound
(VOC) emissions will be achieved over
the years 1990 to 1996. This require-
ment applies to moderate, serious, se-
vere, and extreme ozone nonattainment
areas. In addition, serious, severe, and
extreme areas must demonstrate at
least a 3% annual average reduction
beginning in 1996 and continuing there-
after until attainment is reached. In or-
der to meet Section 182(b)(1) and
182(c)(2) requirements, state/local air
agencies require a computer system
capable of performing "what if scenario
analysis" and reporting the final results
(i.e., their RFP inventory) to EPA (i.e.,
Aerometric Information Retrieval Sys-
tem, AIRS). This system is based on
the 3% RFP Tracking System that was
developed in FY92/FY93. The 3% RFP
Tracking System is a Windows* appli-
cation, and enhancements to convert
the 3% RFP Tracking System to a Mul-
tiple Projections System (MPS) have
continued to be within the framework
of a Windows application. The system
will support RFP inventories for ozone
and carbon monoxide (CO) and thus
will contain VOC, nitrogen oxide (NOx),
and CO data. The most significant
change from the original 3% RFP Track-
ing System and MPS is the ability to
"Mention of trade names or commercial products does
not constitute endorsement or recommendation for
submit a "final" projection emissions
inventory in the format required by the
AIRS Facility Subsystem and the AIRS
Area and Mobile Source Subsystem.
This Project Summary was developed
by EPA's Air and Energy Engineering
Research Laboratory, Research Tri-
angle Park, NC, to announce key find-
ings of the research project that is fully
documented in a separate report of the
same title (see Project Report ordering
information at back).
Purpose
The Multiple Projections System (MPS)
is designed to facilitate the projection of
future emissions of ozone precursors, spe-
cifically carbon monoxide (CO), volatile
organic compounds (VOCs), and oxides
of nitrogen (NOx), in any given geographic
area. The MPS gives state/local air agen-
cies a computer system capable of per-
forming "what if scenario analysis" and
reporting the final results (i.e., their Rea-
sonable Further Progress inventory) to
EPA [(i.e., Aerometric Information Retrieval
System (AIRS) Facility Subsystem (FS)
and Area and Mobile Source Subsystem
(AMS)].
System Requirements
The prototype MPS was developed us-
ing Superbase 4, a Microsoft Windows
data base package that can be compiled
and distributed as a stand-alone product.
As a Windows product, it requires Win-
dows in order to run. The MPS user is
referred to the Microsoft Windows manual
for information on general Windows oper-
ating procedures. Additionally, a computer
with a 386SX or better microprocessor is
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suggested as the platform on which to run
the prototype. Because the system was
developed using a Windows-based prod-
uct, it has been configured to run entirely
using a mouse to point and click on vari-
ous buttons to perform commands or func-
tions. However, all functions can also be
accessed via the keyboard. A hard disk
drive is required to store all input and
output data files. Disk space required de-
pends on the number and size of geo-
graphic areas to be studied.
An advantage of developing the system
using a Windows-based product is that
certain tasks can be performed in the
"background," since Windows can perform
multitasking operations when running on
a 386SX or better platform. Thus, when
the system is performing disk intensive or
processor intensive tasks (such as file im-
ports or emission projection calculations),
the program can be minimized to an icon,
and the user can work on documents in a
word processor or on a spreadsheet until
the task is complete. The system is de-
signed to beep when these tasks are com-
plete, and the icon's title will reflect that
the task is complete. At that point, the
user can return to the program and con-
tinue the analysis.
The system can project emissions out
to the year 2010 in 1-year intervals. In
addition to projecting emissions, the sys-
tem can make projections in the form of
percent reduction relative to base year
emissions. The system is designed to ac-
cept input data from either the AIRS FS or
AMS. Output from the system is in the
form of tables or graphs, which can be
directed to the computer screen or a
printer. Tabular results can also be output
to an ASCII file, allowing the user to sub-
sequently import the reported information
into other software for further analysis (ei-
ther numeric or graphic). Data contained
in the output file can also be exported to
Lotus 123, dBaselll, or Excel. As indi-
cated above, the principal output types
are batch transactions in AIRS FS and
AMS format.
Overview
As was stated earlier, the purpose of
the MRS is to facilitate the projection of
future emissions of CO, VOCs, and NOx.
To this end, the interactive mode of the
MRS was created with the following basic
capabilities:
• import emissions data for 1990 and
control efficiency (CE), rule effective-
ness (RE), rule penetration (RP), and
growth factor data for 1990 and later
years;
• import 1990 activity level data, pro-
jected growth factors, and projected
emission factor data for on-road mo-
bile sources;
• allow for an alternate base year;
• accept user-specified criteria for se-
lecting imported records;
• allow editing of imported CE, RE, RP,
and growth factor data prior to projec-
tion of future emissions;
• project future emissions for the se-
lected records based on these data;
• export projected emissions data as
dBaselll, Lotus, and Excel files;
• generate tabular reports of projected
emissions out to the year 2010;
• generate graphs depicting projected
emissions out to the year 2010; and
• generate batch transaction files of pro-
jected emissions data for import into
FSorAMS.
Necessary input from the user to the
MPS may be apparent from this list. The
user must provide files containing the 1990
emissions data and the CE, RE, RP, and
growth factor data for future years. The
projected growth factor file is generated
by the Economic Growth Analysis System
(E-GAS).
E-GAS is a menu-driven software sys-
tem, developed by EPA, that can produce
growth factors for the extreme, severe,
serious, and multi-state moderate ozone
nonattainment areas that must, under the
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
(CAAAs), use photochemical grid model-
ing to demonstrate future attainment with
the ozone national ambient air quality stan-
dard [Section 182(e)(2)(A)]. Since growth
in source emissions largely depends on
the amount of economic activity growth in
an area, a consistent and reliable set of
growth factors requires forecasts using
consistent Gross National Product fore-
casts and a consistent methodology for
estimating economic activity in Urban
Airshed Model and Regional Oxidant
Model modeling regions. This consistency
and reliability in forecasts and methodolo-
gies is important for two reasons: 1) the
interactive nature of forecasting future
emissions levels and the effects of regula-
tions and corresponding emission control
strategies and 2) state/local air agencies
will be developing control strategies, in
part, based on anticipated growth in these
nonattainment areas in order to meet the
mandated CAAA reductions.
The 1990 emissions data files are re-
trieved from the appropriate AIRS sub-
system. The projected emission factor data
must be compiled by the user. The re-
mainder of the user's input is supplied via
the screen buttons and mouse or key-
board. After the data have been imported,
the user is then presented with a series of
screens, each of which allows the user to
select a value for a single parameter (e.g.,
pollutant). The MPS uses these param-
eters (which also include geographic area
and projection year) as criteria for select-
ing the imported records for which projec-
tions are to be made. Then the user may
edit the imported CE, RE, RP, and growth
factor data; at this point the MPS can
project the future emissions. Equations 1
and 2 are used to forecast projected area
sources (adjusted base year inventory).
UE = DCONE + [1-(CE*RE*RP)] (1)
where:
UE = Daily Uncontrolled
Emissions
DCONE = Daily Controlled
Emissions
CE = Adjusted Base Year
Control Efficiency
RE = Adjusted Base Year
Rule Effectiveness
RP = Adjusted Base Year
Rule Penetration (not
applicable to point
sources)
PCONE =
UE*[1-(PCE*PRE*PRP)]*GF (2)
where:
PCONE = Projected Year Actual
Emissions
PCE = Projected Year Control
Efficiency
PRE = Projected Year Rule
Effectiveness
PRP = Projected Year Rule
Penetration (not
applicable to point
sources)
GF
= Growth Factor
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Equation 3 is used to forecast projected
emissions for on-road and nonroad mo-
bile sources:
FPE =
BVMT (or BNRAR) * EF * CF * GF (3)
These projected data, which are stored
in a Superbase file, can be exported as a
Lotus, dBase, or Excel file. Using screen
buttons, the user can generate several
types of reports, graphs, and files based
on the data in the Superbase file.
where:
FPE
BVMT
EF
CF
GF
BNRAR =
EPA Forecasted
Projected Emissions
Base Vehicle Miles
Traveled by Vehicle
Class by Calendar Year
Emission Factor (output
of Mobile Model)
Conversion Factor
(grams to pounds or
tons)
Growth Factor
Calculated by E-GAS
Base Nonroad Activity
Rate
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Charles C. Monroe, T. Allan Dean, and William R. Barnard are with E. H. Pechan
and Associates, Inc., Durham, NC 27707.
E. Sue Kimbrough is the EPA Project Officer (see below).
The complete report, entitled "Multiple Projections System (MPS) Version 2.0:
User's Manual," includes diskettes (Order No. PB95-503223; Cost: $90.00;
subject to change) will be available only from:
National Technical Information Service
5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, VA 22161
Telephone: 703-487-4650
The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at:
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
United States
Environmental Protection Agency
Center for Environmental Research Information
Cincinnati, OH 45268
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use $300
BULK RATE
POSTAGE & FEES PAID
EPA
PERMIT No. G-35
EPA/600/SR-94/215
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