&EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Risk Communication in
Action: Environmental
Case Studies
zone
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Disclaimer: This document has been reviewed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute
endorsement or recommendation of their use.
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EPA/625/R-02/011
September 2002
RISK COMMUNICATION IN ACTION:
ENVIRONMENTAL CASE STUDIES
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Research and Development
National Risk Management Research Laboratory
Cincinnati, OH 45268
50% Recycled/Recyclable
Printed with vegetable-based ink on
paper that contains a minimum of
50% post-consumer fiber content
processed chlorine free
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Dr. Dan Petersen (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], National Risk Management
Research Laboratory) served as principal author of this handbook. Co-authors included Linda
Stein, David Berol, Judy Usherson, and Adam Parez of Eastern Research Group, Inc., an EPA
contractor. EPA would like to thank the following people for their input during the development
of this handbook:
John Barten, Suburban Hennepin Regional Park District (Lake Access project)
Scott Hammond, Miami River Index Project
Kevin Rosseel, U.S. EPA SunWise Program
Chet Wayland, U.S. EPA AirNow Project
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CONTENTS
Page
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION: TOOLS FOR COMMUNICATING
ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RISKS TO THE PUBLIC 1-1
CHAPTER 2 HOW TO USE THIS HANDBOOK 2-1
2.1 Road Map 2-1
2.2 Frequently Asked Questions 2-1
CHAPTER 3 DATA VISUALIZATION AND DATA INTERPRETATION
TOOLS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RISK
COMMUNICATION 3-1
3.1 Introduction 3-1
3.2 Data Visualization Tools 3-1
3.2.1 How Can Maps Be Used for Environmental
Risk Communication? 3-1
3.2.2 How Can Color-Coding Show Environmental
Quality Conditions? 3-2
3.2.3 How Are Icons (or Images) Used in Environmental
Risk Communication? 3-3
3.2.4 How Are Graphs Used to Show Time-Relevant
Environmental Data? 3-4
3.2.5 Geographic Information Systems 3-4
3.2.6 What Are Simulations and How Are They Used
for Environmental Risk Communication? 3-5
3.3 Data Interpretation Tools 3-5
3.3.1 What Are Environmental Indexes? 3-6
3.3.2 Publications 3-9
3.4 What's the Best Way To "Get the Word Out"?—
Distribution Methods 3-10
in
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CHAPTER 4 CASE STUDIES: DEVELOPING AND USING
DATA VISUALIZATION AND DATA
INTERPRETATION TOOLS 4-1
4.1 Introduction 4-1
4.2 AIRNow Project 4-1
4.2.1 Project History 4-1
4.2.2 Effective Methods 4-2
4.2.3 Key Accomplishments 4-6
4.2.4 Lessons Learned 4-7
4.2.5 Future Plans 4-8
4.3 The River Index Project 4-9
4.3.1 Project History 4-9
4.3.2 Effective Methods 4-10
4.3.3 Lessons Learned 4-16
4.4 Lake Access Project 4-16
4.4.1 Project Description 4-16
4.4.2 Effective Methods 4-17
4.4.3 Key Accomplishments 4-23
4.4.4 Lessons Learned 4-23
CHAPTER 5 GUIDELINES FOR DEVELOPING AND USING DATA
VISUALIZATION AND INTERPRETATION TOOLS
FOR RISK COMMUNICATION 5-1
REFERENCES
IV
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INTRODUCTION: TDDLS FDR
COMMUNICATING ENVIRONMENTAL
HEALTH RISKS TO THE PUBLIC
lommunicating environmental health risks to the public has increasingly become a responsibility
of local and state officials and private groups involved in environmental monitoring. People have
^come to expect access to more information about local air and water quality, for example, and
advances in environmental monitoring and computer technology (such as the Internet) have made time-
ly—sometimes daily—communication of environmental conditions possible. The experiences of the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), state governments, and some local governments and private
organizations in providing such time-relevant environmental risk communication can help other munici-
palities, states, and private groups develop or expand their own local environmental risk communication
programs.
This handbook reflects the experiences of a variety of projects that have been part of EPA's
Environmental Monitoring for Public Access and Community Tracking (EMPACT) Program, which
was active from 1996 to 2002. A key goal of the EMPACT Program was to facilitate the process of
providing the public with time-relevant environmental information, including information on any
health risks associated with certain environmental conditions. Achieving this goal involved helping
communities identify and use effective ways to collect, manage, and distribute timely environmental
and health risk information; it also involved sharing the experiences of various municipalities that
have successfully accomplished these objectives.
Local and state EMPACT projects have been involved in a variety of environmental monitoring and
risk communication activities, such as air quality monitoring and beach, lake, and river monitoring.
In the course of these activities, certain tools and combinations of tools have proven to be effective for
environmental risk communication, particularly data visualization and data interpretation tools. Data
visualization tools graphically depict, in this context, environmental health risks or environmental
quality conditions. Data interpretation tools describe complex scientific concepts in relatively simple
terms (as index values, for example); this can help people understand the potential health risks associat-
ed with exposure to certain environmental conditions (such as air pollution). Some projects have devel-
oped such tools on a national scale, and some of these tools are available "as is" or are easily adaptable
for use by localities to report local environmental conditions. Examples include EPA's AIRNow project
for air quality and the EPA Sun Wise project on UV radiation exposure from the sun. Other tools were
developed on a more regional or local scale; some of these tools could be adopted by other communi-
ties (such as beach flags indicating local water quality, or the use of color-coded indexes or maps).
This handbook discusses a wide variety of data visualization and data interpretation tools that munic-
ipalities involved in EMPACT projects have used successfully in environmental risk communication
programs. The handbook explains what the tools are and how they can be used, and also presents a
number of case studies of projects using such tools. It also provides some basic guidelines for develop-
ing and using data visualization and data interpretation tools. EPA hopes that sharing this informa-
tion will help other states and municipalities establish environmental risk communication programs
and expand existing programs to incorporate timelier, more effective risk communication methods.
INTRODUCTION 1-1
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2
HOW TO USE THIS HANDBOOK
This handbook provides both general and detailed information on how to use a wide variety
of data visualization and data interpretation tools for effective environmental risk communi-
cation. The handbook is intended for local and state officials, environmental groups, and
others who are responsible for communicating environmental conditions and associated health risks
to the public. The handbook is organized as described below.
2. 1 ROAD MAP
Overview of data visualization
and data interpretation tools,
including maps, color-coding,
icons, graphs, geographic
information systems,
simulations, indexes, and
publications: see Chapters.
Case study presentations of
three projects that have suc-
cessfully incorporated many
different data visualization and
data interpretation tools into
their programs: see Chapter 4.
Guidelines for developing and
using effective risk communi-
cation tools: see Chapter 5.
2.2 FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Whether you are just beginning to consider developing an environmental risk communication
program or are in the process of expanding your program, the following frequently asked questions
may be useful.
Q: What are data visualization and data interpretation took, and why are they important?
A: Data visualization tools present information primarily through images (such as maps, icons,
and pie charts) rather than words. Data interpretation tools (such as indexes) describe complex
scientific concepts in relatively simple terms. Both of these tools can be particularly powerful in
communicating information about environmental quality conditions (such as water quality) and
environmental health risks.
Q: What is time-relevant risk communication?
A: The term "time-relevant" refers to the goal of providing real-time (such as daily or near-daily)
environmental information. Providing time-relevant information can be particularly important
when one seeks to communicate environmental risks, because such risks depend on conditions
(such as air or water quality) that can change each day. The Internet and other data visualization
and data interpretation tools often make it possible to communicate environmental risk informa-
tion fairly quickly.
Q: What are some of the most effective ways to inform the public about environmental risks?
A: According to the experience of some environmental risk communication projects, the most effec-
tive ways to disseminate environmental risk information may include establishing a Web site that
displays a variety of data visualization tools (e.g., maps, color-coded charts), arranging for local
news media to present your information, establishing a telephone hotline, and developing a col-
lection of printed materials. Many other outreach methods may also be effective, such as setting
up kiosks at strategic locations to distribute information (sometimes on onsite computers), giv-
ing presentations to local officials and others, and incorporating the information into school sci-
ence curriculums.
HOW TD USE THIS HANDBOOK
2-1
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Q: Why is it sometimes desirable to make special presentations to children, senior citizens, and people
with certain health problems?
A: Children, senior citizens, and people with certain illnesses are often uniquely sensitive to the
kinds of environmental problem that time-relevant monitoring typically addresses, such as
ozone pollution and UV radiation. Therefore, it is sometimes worthwhile to tailor special mate-
rials for these audiences, since their issues and concerns may differ significantly from those of
the general population.
Q: How can our program avoid jargon and complex language in the materials we develop on environ-
mental risks?
A; One solution is to use graphic images as much as possible to convey your message in your materi-
als. When you need to use language, first think about the literacy and education levels of your
audience, and then tailor your language so that it will be comprehensible to the vast majority of
that audience. With some effort and good writing skills, it is usually possible to express a complex
concept clearly and in relatively simple terms. Where literacy and education vary dramatically, you
may want to develop several editions of your written materials for different reading levels. Also,
focus groups and interviews with members of your target audience can play an important role in
identifying any jargon or overly complex language.
2-2
CHAPTER 2
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DATA VISUALIZATION AND DATA
INTERPRETATION TOOLS FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK COMMUNICATION
3.1 INTRODUCTION
This chapter describes specific data visualization and data interpretation tools that can often improve
risk communication by presenting environmental risk information in more "user-friendly" ways.
Examples of each tool from actual EMPACT projects are provided. If you are considering using
some of these tools for environmental risk communication, check to see whether any data visualiza-
tion or data interpretation tools already exist that can meet your needs or be modified to do so.
Some municipalities and organizations have successfully used tools developed by other projects.
Experience has shown that the most effective tools are simple to understand and use, provide
consistent messages, and reflect a uniform system that aligns with or complements already existing
systems. For example, if you use color-coding, use colors that are commonly used, understood, and
associated with particular messages (e.g., green for "go," red for "stop"). Also, your tools will be
more effective if they can be adapted to fit a variety of presentation formats (e.g., Web sites,
brochures, presentations) and the requirements of the media (e.g., print, television, radio).
Section 3.2 describes a variety of data visualization tools, and Section 3.3 describes some important
data interpretation tools. Section 3.4 summarizes the ways that risk information can be distributed
to your audiences (e.g., the Internet, newspapers, television). The ways in which projects have
developed and used several of these tools, often in conjunction with one another (e.g., a color-
coded index) are described throughout this chapter and in Chapter 4.
3.2 DATA VISUALIZATION TOOLS
In this handbook, data visualization tools are any graphic representation of data to communicate
health risks or other aspects of environmental quality. Presenting data in a visual format can
enhance your audience's understanding of and interest in the data. Data visualization tools
discussed below include maps, color-coding, icons, graphs, geographic information systems (GIS),
and simulations.
3.2.1 HDW CAN MAPS BE USED FDR
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK C D M M U N I C ATI D N ?
Maps are one of the most basic and familiar data visualization tools that can be used to communi-
cate time-relevant environmental quality information for particular locations. A map showing envi-
ronmental quality data can be based on specific geographic information (as in Figure 3-1) or
it can illustrate environmental quality conditions on a broader conceptual scale, as in Figure 3-2.
If kept simple (e.g., clutter-free) and accompanied by a good key that explains the symbols it uses,
a map can be one of the easiest data interpretation and visualization tools to develop and/or use.
Figures 3-1 and 3-2 below illustrate how one EMPACT project, the Sun Wise Project, has success-
fully used different types of maps in its risk communication efforts. Sun Wise staff developed the
maps to be intuitive and consistent with other map-reporting systems, such as the EMPACT
AIRNow map for ozone (see Chapter 4 for a discussion of the AIRNow project). Many other
EMPACT projects have also developed and used maps (see Chapter 4 for examples). TheAIRNow
project, for example, uses animated maps that depict the formation and movement of ozone
throughout the course of the day; the colors on the map change as the ozone concentrations
change.
DATA VISUALIZATION AND DATA INTERPRETATION TOOLS 3-1
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U.S.
Dally UV Index Map
Figure 3-1. Daily UVIndex map (site-specific). This Figure 3-1
map illustrates, on a daily basis, the levels of ultravio-
let (UV) radiation in the atmosphere at specific geo-
graphic locations nationwide. (Overexposure to UV
radiation can cause immediate effects such as sun-
burn and long-term problems such as skin cancer
and cataracts.) Forecast UV levels are superimposed
on the map so that users can obtain an idea of the
UV radiation levels to which they could be exposed.
Specific geographic locations for which environmen-
tal quality are available are generally easy to locate on
the map, and a simple key explains the map's num-
bering system and color-coding. The key also trans-
lates numerical UV Index levels into different color-
coded exposure categories of minimal, low, moderate,
high, and very high exposure. See Section 3.3.1 for
more information about the UV Index. Sources: U.S.
EPA, 2002a (http://www.epa.gov/sunwise); U.S. EPA,
2002b (http://www.epa.gov/oei); National Weather
Service, 2002 (http://www.nws.noaa.gov).
Figure 3-2. Daily UV Index contour map. This map
shows another way to communicate UV exposure
levels. Rather than indicating specific locations (as
Figure 3-1 does), this map uses color-coded areas to
identify UV levels in general regions of the country
on a daily basis. Source: U.S. EPA, 2002a
(http://www. epa.gov/sunwise).
3.2.2 HDW CAN COLOR-CODING
SHOW ENVIRONMENTAL
QUALITY CONDITIONS?
Like maps, color-coding is already familiar to many
people, and thus its message can be easily under-
stood. The use of color-coding to indicate "good" or
"poor" environmental quality conditions (and ranges
between those extremes) has been combined success-
fully with maps, graphs, indexes, icons, and other
tools for risk communication. Appropriate choices of
colors (and ranges of colors) can enhance a viewer's
understanding. For example, using generally univer- http://www.epa.gov/sunwise/uvindexcontour.html
sally known color-coding schemes, such as green to
represent "go" (e.g., the air quality in a particular area today is good, with little or no risk) and red
to represent "stop" (e.g., the air quality in this location today is unhealthy, and people may experi-
ence health effects) is recommended.
http://www.epa.gov/sunwise/uvindexmap.html
Figure 3-2
Dally UV Index Countour
Map
3-Z
CHAPTER 3
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Disscrtved Oxvps-i in Lang (stand Sound Bottom VJaF.c-*
http://www.dep.state.ct.us/wtr/lis/monitoring/hyaug01jpg
Figure 3-3 is an example of using color- Figure 3-3
coding in maps. Examples of color-coding
used in conjunction with other data visual-
ization tools can be found throughout this
handbook. Chapter 4 discusses how specif-
ic projects use color-coding.
Figure 3-3. Color-coding used to indicate
dissolved oxygen levels. Using a combina-
tion of mapping and color-coding, the
Connecticut Department of Environmental
Protection developed a system to express
dissolved oxygen levels, which serve as one
indicator of water quality. The colors
selected range from blue for excellent dis-
solved oxygen levels that support marine
life to black for severely impaired waters with very low dissolved oxygen levels. Additional clearly
differentiated colors (green, yellow, orange, and red) indicate intermediate levels of water quality
conditions. Source: University of Connecticut, 2002 (http://www.mysound.uconn.edu/index.html).
3.2.3 HOW ARE ICONS (OR IMAGES) USED IN
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK COMMUNICATION?
The term "icon" is used here in a very general sense to describe any visual cue, or image, that is
used to communicate information—anything from a physical placard (e.g., a beach closure symbol
or sign) to a symbol on a computer screen. Although words may added, an icon should ideally be
able to convey at least its basic meaning without relying on language. For example, the Charles
River/Boston Harbor project uses two icons, as shown in Figure 3-4, to indicate whether water
quality conditions in certain areas of the river or harbor are suitable for boating or whether health
risks exist. These symbols are used both on the program Web site and on actual flags that are post-
ed at boat houses along the Charles River. Another beach water quality program, the Southeastern
Wisconsin Beach Health Program, uses an icon of a swimmer and an icon of a crossed-out swim-
mer to indicate the concepts of open and closed swimming beaches (see Chapter 5 and
http://infotrek.er.usgs.gov/pls/beachhealth}. Other examples of icons used to indicate environmental
quality or health risks are included in Chapter 4.
Figure 3-4. Icons used in beach flagging
program. The Charles River/Boston Harbor
project uses different-colored flags with an
icon of a boat on its Web site (and actual
flags at various sites on the river, including
boat launches) to quickly and easily commu-
nicate water quality and health risks to recre-
ational water users. Blue flags indicate that
water quality conditions are suitable for
boating on the river, while red flags, with a
line through the boat, indicate potential
health risks from boating at a particular
place and time. Source: Charles River
Watershed Association, 2002
(http:I Iwww. crwa. org/wq/daily/2002/daily. html).
Figure 3-4
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DATA VISUALIZATION AND DATA INTERPRETATION TOOLS
3-3
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3.2.4 HDW ARE GRAPHS USED TD SHOW
TIME-RELEVANT ENVIRONMENTAL DATA?
Graphs are another commonly used and relatively easy-to-understand data visualization tool.
They are often used to convey information about how several variables are related or compare.
EMPACT projects such as Lake Access (see Chapter 4) and the Boulder Area Sustainability
Information Network (http://bcn.boulder.co.us/basin) allow users to generate graphs as needed by
specifying which variables they want plotted, as shown in Figure 3-5, and also how they would like
them plotted. For example, the Lake Access Web site lets users plot variables as changing bands of
color rather than as lines.
Figure 3-5
Figure 3-5. Use of a graph to plot several water
quality parameters. Using a "profile plotter"
application, users of the Lake Access project Web
site can choose from a number of different water
quality variables to plot, including temperature,
pH, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and
turbidity. This particular graph shows tempera-
ture, pH, and dissolved oxygen concentrations at
various depths in a particular lake at 4:00 a.m.
on October 22, 2001, in the form of a lake pro-
file line plot. Graphing these and other water
quality variables can reveal how water quality
changes over time and depth. Source: Lake
Access, 2002 (www.lakeaccess.org).
3.2.5 GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS
GIS are effective data visualization tools for displaying, analyzing, and modeling spatial or
geographic information. A GIS can be used to generate maps, animations, and two- and three-
dimensional models once detailed data are input into the system by skilled staff. (This process can
be labor-intensive and fairly expensive.) Two key advantages of GIS are that it allows users to
quickly overlay and view several different data layers simultaneously, such as open-space lands,
water resources, and population, and that it lets users view and compare different future scenarios
(such as future land uses) and their possible impacts (e.g., on environmental resources). State envi-
ronmental agencies and private organizations are increasingly developing GIS maps that include
environmental and related features, such as hydrology, land uses, zoning codes, soils, topography,
political boundaries, watershed boundaries, and transportation data. These maps may be readily
available for display and use, including through the Internet. Often users can retrieve information,
generate maps (including customized maps), and query data simply by clicking on a map feature.
However, some GIS maps are relevant for only particular geographic locations. Once developed,
GIS maps are relatively easy to use and understand by local officials and the public. Figure 3-6
shows a color-coded GIS map that focuses on land uses and water quality.
3-4
CHAPTER 3
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Figure 3-6. GIS map of land use in a watershed.
This map displays land uses within two watersheds.
The map is color-coded to identify the different
types of land uses (e.g., agricultural, residential,
commercial, industrial, forest, wetlands) surround-
ing the lake. GIS maps like this one can help local
officials and the public understand how land use
changes affect water quality in their communities.
(This image was produced by the Lake Access proj-
ect; see Chapter 4 for more information on Lake
Access.) Source: U.S. EPA, 2000.
Figure 3-6
3.2.6 WHAT ARE
SIMULATIONS AND
HDW ARE THEY USED
FDR ENVIRONMENTAL
RISK COMMUNICATION?
Some EMPACT projects, such as the Tulsa Air and Water Quality Information System, use game-
like simulations to convey information about environmental risk. Tulsa's simulation is entitled
Smog City and is based on a model developed by the Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality
Management District (see Chapter 4). Smog City contains a variety of controls for which a num-
ber of factors affecting smog formation may be set, as shown in Figure 3-7. These factors include
temperature, population, presence of inversion layers, and cloud cover. An animated rendition of
Smog City changes to reflect the user's settings. The output of the simulation is an imaginary plot
of the typical smog profile (more specifically, a plot of ozone concentrations throughout the day)
for the simulated city. Although simulations do not convey time-relevant data about the state of
the real world, they do convey principles and conditions that can be useful to people in their real-
world decision-making.
Figure 3-7
Figure 3-7. Tulsa's "Smog City" simulation.
When users select representative emission levels from
sources including vehicles, industry, and consumer
products, as well as weather conditions (temperature
and cloud cover) and population level, a simulation of
resulting smog (ozone levels) appears that reflects the
conditions selected. Source: Tulsa Air and Water Quality
Information System, 2002.
3.3 DATA INTERPRETATION
TOOLS
Data interpretation tools such as indexes translatecom-
plex scientific concepts into relatively simple systems
that can facilitate the users' understanding of technical
data and related health risks. This section mainly discusses indexes, giving examples of indexes used
by EMPACT projects. It also touches briefly on publications, a common and traditional communi-
cation tool.
^V «-U—I t-i...,
0 O 0
http://www.e-tulsa.org/smogcity/runsmogcity.html
DATA VISUALIZATION AND DATA INTERPRETATION TOOLS
3-5
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3.3.1 WHAT ARE ENVIRONMENTAL INDEXES?
Indexing is a data interpretation tool that involves expressing one or more quantitative measure-
ments as part of a scale—for instance, a scale ranging from poor to excellent. An environmental
index might range, for example, from 0 (representing low risk of exposure) to 100 (representing a
high exposure risk). Or, instead of a health risk, one or more environmental conditions might be
represented (e.g., dissolved oxygen levels as one indication of water quality). The development of
an index often also involves establishing "weighting factors" (i.e., giving the more important vari-
ables more weight than less important variables) as well as an equation for combining all the rele-
vant data values into the index scale.
When you develop or use indexes, related color-coding schemes or other data visualization and
data interpretation tools, you will often need to decide where "good" (or "low risk") ends and
"poor" (or "high risk") begins, as well as how additional intermediate ranges are to be determined.
These key junctures are "cutoff" points that identify the important data ranges in the overall index
scheme. In the context of environmental risk communication, basing cutoff points and ranges on
scientific information is recommended whenever possible so that the index reflects actual risk levels
(as is the case for many of the indexes discussed as examples in this chapter and Chapter 4).
Index values and their meanings can be calculated and reported in a number of different ways,
such as reporting the highest single number based on measurements of several different pollutants
(as in the Air Quality Index discussed below); mathematically combining the ratings of different
parameters into a single index value (as in the River Index described in Chapter 4); or expressing
the different index ranges as multiples or percentages of measurements or standards generally used.
A number of EMPACT projects use indexes as key data interpretation tools for risk communica-
tion, including the Sun Wise Program and the AIRNow project. These two projects' use of indexes
is described below; see also Chapter 4, which provides a detailed, step-by-step review of how the
River Index was developed. Some of these indexes might be directly applicable and useable for
your location, such as the UV Index used by the Sun Wise program and the Air Quality Index used
by AIRNow. Other existing indexes might be useful if modified for your location or program
objectives. The examples provided below and in Chapter 4 provide an overview of how environ-
mental indexes are developed, what they are based on, and how they are used.
3.3. 1. 1 THE EPA SUNWISE PROGRAM AND THE UV INDEX
The EPA Sun Wise Program uses the National Weather Service's (NWS's) Ultraviolet Index
(or UV Index), which provides a daily forecast of the expected risk of overexposure to the sun.
The Index predicts the next day's UV radiation levels on a 0 to 10+ (up to 15) scale, where 0 indi-
cates a minimal likely level of exposure to UV rays and 10+ means a very high level of exposure.
The higher the UV Index, the greater the dose rate (the amount of UV skin- and eye-damaging
radiation to which a person will be exposed), and the less time it takes before skin damage occurs.
(For more background information on the UV Index, visit
http-.llwww. cpc. ncep. noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/uv_index/index. html.}
The NWS develops the UV Index by using a computer model to first calculate the UV dose rate,
then adjust the result for important effects likely to influence this rate. For UV radiation, such
effects include elevation and cloud cover at specific locations. The resulting value is the next day's
UV Index forecast. The Sun Wise Program also allows users to enter their ZIP code to get a UV
forecast specifically for that location. The UV Index used in the Sun Wise Program includes the
cutoff ranges listed in Table 3-1.
3-s CHAPTER 3
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TABLE 3-1. UV INDEX SCALE RANGES
Index Number
Oto2
3 to 4
5 to 6
7 to 9
10+
Low
Moderate
High
Very High
r
r
r
r
r
r
Wear a hat with a wide brim and sunglasses to protect
your eyes. Use a sunscreen with an SPF of at least 1 5 and
wear long-sleeved shirts and long pants when outdoors.
Use sunscreen if you work outdoors and remember to f
protect sensitive areas like the nose and the rims of the I
ears. Sunscreen prevents sunburn and some of the sun's 5
damaging effects on the immune system. Use a lip balm $
or lip cream containing a sunscreen. Lip balms can help f
protect some people from getting cold sores. I
Wear long-sleeved shirts and trousers made from tightly
woven fabrics. UV rays can pass through the holes of
loosely knit fabrics.
Avoid being in the sun as much as possible. Wear
sunglasses that block 99 to 1 00 percent of all UV rays
(both UVA and UVB). Wear a hat with a wide brim.
Source: Climate Prediction Center, 2000
3.3. 1.2 THE AIRNOW PROGRAM AND THE AIR QUALITY INDEX
The EMPACT AIRNow project uses the Air Quality Index (AQI) developed by EPA to communi-
cate the level of health concern associated with different concentrations of certain air pollutants.
The AQI ranges from 0 ("good" air quality) to 500 ("hazardous" air quality). The higher the Index
value, the greater the health concern.
The reported Index value reflects the single pollutant with the highest value. Exposure to multiple
pollutants is not reflected due to a lack of data on associated health effects. To facilitate risk com-
munication, reporting of the AQI has shifted in recent years: instead of numbers, the colors with
which the Index values are associated are reported.
The AQI is divided into six color-coded ranges, as shown in Table 3-2. These correspond to the
color scheme used in AIRNow's ozone map (see Chapter 4). The use of uniform colors that are
easily understandable by the general public to support a nationally uniform index was an impor-
tant goal that was successfully achieved (though debate occurred regarding which particular colors
to use).
DATA VISUALIZATION AND DATA INTERPRETATION TOOLS
3-7
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TABLE 3-2. AIR QUALITY INDEX (AQI) SCALE RANGES
AND CORRESPONDING COLORS
Green
Yellow
Orange
Red
Purple
Maroon
51 to 100
101 to 150
151 to 200
201 to 300
301 to 500
Moderate
Unhealthy for sensitive groups
Unhealthy
Very unhealthy
Hazardous
Generally, the different AQI ranges (or cutoff points) are defined by different populations known
to exhibit noticeable health problems at these different ranges. (See the AIRNow case study in
Chapter 4 for a more detailed discussion of the cutoff points and populations). Including Index
ranges for sensitive groups provides useful information for these populations, while not alarming
the general public (Stone, 2000).
EPA used focus groups, discussions with state and local agencies and the news media, and public
comment to help decide cutoff ranges and corresponding colors for the AQI. Some people suggest-
ed additional or different colors, shades, or categories than were finally selected. For fine particu-
late matter (PM2.5), EPA lowered the cutoffs in response to public comment. Because the scientif-
ic basis for setting standards for particulate matter is not very precise, there was a legitimate reason
for the public to question where the lines should be drawn. Even the name of the index may be
important. For example, the AQI was previously called the "Pollutant Standards Index"; this name
was changed to the "Air Quality Index" because focus groups and others much preferred a name
that reflected air quality rather than air pollution (Stone, 2000).
3.3.1.3
IF YOU'RE
USING AN
CONSIDERING
INDEX...
DEVELOPING OR
In choosing an index that would be a useful tool in your environmental risk communication
efforts, consider what other organizations might partner with you in developing and launching the
index, think about the limitations of the index you are investigating (e.g., what it cannot commu-
nicate), and decide whether that index meets the specific needs of your program. These factors are
discussed below.
Partners. Working with other relevant organizations can be important when you seek to develop
or use an environmental index that meets your needs. For the UV Index, NWS has worked with
EPA, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, meteorologists, health and medical profes-
sionals, and the World Meteorological Organization to ensure consistency among different UV
Indexes. For the AQI, EPA staff worked with state and local air agencies and regional organizations
for 2 years, attended many meetings and conferences nationwide, and held eight focus groups
throughout the country.
3-S
CHAPTER 3
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What Index Meets Your Needs? If you are interested in using an index as an indicator of environ-
mental quality and/or exposure risk, first do some research to find out if an index already exists
that may address your needs. If an index suitable for your purposes does not exist and you decide
to develop your own index or modify an existing one:
• Make sure to include people on your index development team who know the science behind
the concepts involved. Also have the index validated—that is, tested to make sure that its
results are indeed useable for their intended purpose.
• Try to achieve some consistency with similar or related indexes to minimize confusion
regarding the meaning of colors and numbers in risk communication efforts.
• Include as many key factors as possible in your index development process that could
influence the results and accuracy of the index. If any important factors are not accounted
for, let the user know what they are and how they might influence the index results.
Communicate What the Index Does Not Do
It may be important to communicate certain caveats about environmental indexes to the public.
For example, the UV Index's users are informed that because the Index is a forecast, it will not
always be exactly correct (though it is very reliable, with an 84 percent accuracy rate to within +/-
2 percentage points). Also, users should be told if the index does not account for any potentially
important factors. For the UV Index, the effects of air pollutants, haze, and surface reflection from
snow, water, and sand are not included. These factors can result in higher actual UV exposure
under these environmental conditions than the UV Index value indicates. In addition, the UV Index
is not intended for individuals who are very sensitive to the sun, such as people with lupus ery-
thematosus or other sun-sensitive diseases, or people taking certain medications that result in sun
sensitivity.
• Determine the needed frequency of reporting of your index. For many projects, daily report-
ing may be needed so that the public can use the information in a timely manner, but the fre-
quency should also reflect realistic expectations. For example, for the AQI, reporting is
required daily; however, "daily" is defined as a minimum of 5 days a week, since there is con-
cern that some state and local agencies may not be able to provide AQI reports on weekends
(Stone, 2000).
• Solicit feedback from a broad audience during development of the index, including the pub-
lic. Expect people to disagree about the semantics of what to call intermediate categories on
the borderline between "good" and "poor." For example, should there be one intermediate
category? Two? Four? Bear in mind that you may never achieve complete consensus on index
cutoffs and ranges. EPA has found that between 4 and 10 ranges are usually adequate to com-
municate variability in environmental quality and health effects, based on a review of different
countries' use of indexes (Stone, 2000).
3.3.2 PUBLICATIONS
Almost all EMPACT projects develop and use publications to communicate their risk information
to the public or other more specific audiences. They use a variety of formats, such as pamphlets,
fact sheets, handbooks, and flyers. While publications cannot provide time-relevant (e.g., daily)
data, they do provide information about how to interpret the data and what associated health risks
from certain environmental conditions might be. Guidance for developing publications (as well as
other types of written text) appropriate for different types of readers is provided in Chapter 5.
DATA VISUALIZATION AND DATA INTERPRETATION TOOLS
3-9
-------
3.4 WHAT'S THE BEST WAY TD "BET THE
WORD OUT?"—DISTRIBUTION METHODS
Even the best risk communication tools will not be effective unless your audience knows about
them. Thus, establishing a good distribution system is important. After clearly identifying your tar-
get audience(s), you might want to do some research on how your audience typically receives
information. Some common sources of public information are:
• Television
• Newspapers
• The Internet
• Meetings
• Schools
Then, choose one or more distribution methods that are likely to reach the most people in your
target audience. A Web site may be an excellent way to distribute your risk information if your
audience is likely to have access to the Internet; if not, you might want to choose another distribu-
tion method in addition to, or instead of, a Web site.
3-1 D
CHAPTER 3
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CASE STUDIES: DEVELOPING AND USING DATA
VISUALIZATION AND DATA INTERPRETATION TOOLS
4.1 INTRODUCTION
This chapter shows how three particular EMPACT projects have successfully used a variety of the
data visualization and data interpretation tools discussed in Chapter 3, often integrating several tools
into their programs. The AIRNow Project (Section 4.2) provides hourly air quality conditions and
daily forecasts for many areas across the country using color-coded maps, an index, a telephone hot-
line, the media, and printed publications, among other tools. The River Index Project (Section 4.3)
primarily uses an index system to report on the water quality of various river segments surrounding
Dayton, Ohio, including an indication of whether river conditions are favorable for recreational
activities. The River Index incorporates color-coding into its risk communication efforts to facilitate
the public's understanding of the index values. The discussion of the River Index also includes a
detailed explanation of how the index was developed.
The Lake Access Project (Section 4.4) uses color-coded maps, an index, charts, GIS, kiosks, and
three-dimensional animation, among other tools, to provide near-real-time water quality information
to different audiences, with information ranging from simple to more complex, as selected by the
user. All of these projects rely in part on their Web sites, in addition to other tools, for effective risk
communication. Understanding how these projects use this wide range of risk communication tools
"in real life" will hopefully be useful to other projects that are considering developing or expanding
their own environmental risk communication programs.
4.2 AIRNOW PROJECT
4.2.1 PROJECT HISTORY
The AIRNow project, launched in 1998, offers daily air quality forecasts as well as real-time air quality
data for over 200 cities across the United States in a visual, easy-to-understand format. AIRNow, serving
as a central clearinghouse for data collected from state and local agencies, reviews the data for quality
assurance and transfers the information to the public via its Web site, http://www.epa.gov/airnow. It also
provides links to more detailed state and local air quality Web sites. The AIRNow project was initially
funded by EMPACT and was developed in partnership with state and local air quality agencies.
The AIRNow project collects data from existing local and state ozone monitoring networks. These net-
works are equipped with data loggers and modems that collect and transmit measurements to state host
computers. In areas where ozone monitoring networks are not well established, special-purpose moni-
tors are used. Each participating state agency's host computer is linked to a central EPA database called
the Data Management Center (DMC). The DMC manages and quality-checks the data and sends
them out for use in making ozone maps, which are posted on the AIRNow Web site.
The AIRNow project uses the AQJ as one of its primary risk communication tools. Under the Clean
Air Act, EPA is required to establish a nationally uniform index for reporting air quality. In 1976, EPA
established the Pollutant Standard Index (PSI), which provided information on pollutant concentra-
tions for ground-level ozone, particulate matter, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide.
In 1998, EPA adopted several important revisions to the PSI and changed its name to "Air Quality
Index." Other changes included providing uniform categories, colors, and descriptors for air quality;
revising the ozone and particulate matter standards to address new scientific findings; and adding a cat-
egory to characterize air quality deemed to be "unhealthy for sensitive groups." Most significantly, the
new AQI was useful as a forecasting tool, whereas PSI values had only been reported as historical data
for previous days.
CASE STUDIES 4-1
-------
The development of the AQI and AIRNow coincided with the rapid growth of the Internet. This
fortuitous timing enabled AIRNow tools to quickly become widely adopted for air quality risk
communication.
4.2.2 EFFECTIVE METHODS
The AIRNow program successfully integrates several risk communication tools, including color-
coded geographic maps, an index, a recorded telephone hotline, and traditional printed materials,
as shown in Table 4-1. These tools provide information that is relatively easy to understand for
people with little prior knowledge about air pollution and its risks. The information alerts the
public about air quality during the ozone season through a Web site with a memorable URL
(http:llwww. epa.gov/airnow) and weather reporting by media outlets. The data are also used by local
agencies. The following subsections describe some of the risk communication tools used by
AIRNow, particularly the AQI and real-time ozone maps.
4.Z.Z. 1 THE AIR QUALITY INDEX
The AQI serves as the foundation for AIRNow. It is a tool developed by EPA (see Chapter 3)
to provide timely and easy-to-understand information on local air quality and associated health
concerns.
TABLE 4-1. SUMMARY OF AIR Now COMMUNICATION PRODUCTS
Product/Event
Still-frame and
animated ozone maps
Targeted Audience
Distribution Mechanism
Data Interpretation and Presentation Tools
• General public
• People with sensitivity
to ozone exposure
• Al RNow Web site; Web sites of state and local air
pollution agencies
• Television, via local weather broadcasts in a
handful of local markets
The Air Quality Index
(AQI)
• General public
• People with sensitivity
to exposure to pollutants
covered by the AQI
• Al RNow Web site; Web sites of state and local air
pollution agencies
• Newspapers
Interactive AQI
calculator
AIRNow Web site
Various publications:
Air Quality Guide for Ozone,
Guideline for Developing an
Ozone Forecasting Program,
Guideline for Reporting of
Daily Air Quality, Ozone and
Your Health, and Report of
Eight Focus Groups.. .1
•AIRNow Web site
• General public
• People with sensitivity
to exposure to pollutants
covered by the AQI
Web Sites and Other Internet Applications
• General public
Internet
Publications
• General public
• State and local air
pollution agencies
• State and local public
health agencies
• Al RNow Web site
Other Outreach and Education Products or Information Dissemination Techniques
Satellite forum
State and local air
pollution and public
health agencies
Broadcast via EPA's Air Pollution Distance
Learning Network
1 U.S. EPA, 1999a-d, 1998.
4-2
CHAPTER 4
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The AQI converts raw measurements of the six pollutants regulated by the Clean Air Act (ozone,
fine and coarse particulate matter, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide) into a
number on a scale of 0 to 500. The scale is subdivided into categories such as "good," "moderate",
"unhealthy," and "hazardous." Converting the measurements involves using standard conversion
scales developed by EPA, as described below:
• The AQI value of 100, which is the upper bound of the "moderate" category, corresponds to
health-based national air quality standards (the National Ambient Air Quality Standards, or
NAAQS) established for each of these pollutants. These standards, and the corresponding
Index value of 100, reflect scientifically peer-reviewed information on health effects.
• The Index value of 50, which is the upper bound of the "good" category, is defined in one of
three ways: (a) the level of the annual standard (if an annual standard has been established for
that pollutant); (b) a concentration equal to one-half the value of the short-term standard
used to define an Index value of 100; or (c) the concentration at which the risk to the public
becomes very small (e.g., the 8-hour ozone average), and/or the magnitude of the health
effects becomes highly uncertain.
• Between the Index values of 100 and 500, a linear relationship generally exists between
increasing values and increasingly severe health effects associated with pollutant levels. For
example, the value for ozone of 150 (the upper bound for the "Unhealthy for Sensitive
Groups" category) corresponds to an ozone concentration of 0.10 parts per million (ppm),
based on a risk assessment conducted for the ozone NAAQS that indicated that this is the
level at which exposures are associated with an increase in the number of individuals who
could experience effects (including possible respiratory effects in the general population
and a greater likelihood of respiratory symptoms and breathing difficulty in sensitive groups)
(Stone, 2000).
Originally, EPA based the AQI for ozone (the focus of the EMPACT AIRNow project) on a 1-
hour standard. Since 1997, the Index has been based instead on an 8-hour standard, because
research has found that the original 1-hour standard was not adequately protective of human
health. The 1-hour standard limited ozone levels to 0.12 ppm averaged over a 1-hour period; the
new 8-hour standard requires that a community's ozone levels be no higher than 0.08 ppm when
averaged over an 8-hour period.
An ozone measurement of 0.08 ppm (which is the NAAQS for ozone) corresponds to a "moderate"
AQI value of 100 for ozone; carbon dioxide levels between 4.5 and 9.4 ppm correspond to "mod-
erate" AQI values between 51 to 100. A similar measurement-to-index value conversion process is
conducted for all six NAAQS pollutants individually; the highest individual pollutant value is then
reported as the AQI for that local area for a particular day. Information may also be reported for
any other pollutant with an Index value above 100.
AIRNow associates each of the six AQI categories with a color (also used in ozone mapping), and
the level of health concern associated with each AQI category is summarized by a descriptor. Table
3-2 (in Chapter 3) outlines these categories and descriptors; Table 4-2 explains how they relate to
the l-to-500 scale. Table 4-3 explains what types of health effect are associated with each of the six
categories and what individuals can do to avoid these effects.
4. Z. Z. Z OZONE MAPS
The AIRNow ozone maps present the AQI in a visual, easy-to-understand format. The maps use
the categories and color scheme developed for the AQI and delineate geographic concentrations of
ground-level ozone so that individuals can easily determine the quality of the air in their immediate
vicinity.
CASE STUDIES 4-3
-------
TABLE 4-2.
AQI C 0 i_o R-C 0 D ED INDEX RANGES AND
RISK COMMUNICATION OF HEALTH CONCERNS
1 Air Quality Index Rating
and Associated Color
Good (green)
|l Moderate (yellow)
|l Unhealthy for sensitive
groups (orange)
Unhealthy (red)
: Very unhealthy (purple)
Hazardous (maroon)
When the AQI value for your community is between 0 and 50, air
quality is considered satisfactory in your area.
When the AQI value for your community is between 51 and 1 00,
air quality is acceptable in your area. (However, people who are
extremely sensitive to ozone may experience respiratory symptoms.)
Some people are particularly sensitive to the harmful effects of
certain air pollutants. For example, people with asthma may be
sensitive to sulfur dioxide and ozone, while people with heart disease
may be sensitive to carbon monoxide. Some groups of people may
be sensitive to more than one pollutant. When AQI values are between
1 01 and 1 50, members of sensitive groups may experience health
effects. Members of the general public are not likely to be affected
when the AQI is in this range.
When AQI values are between 151 and 200, everyone may begin to
experience health effects. Members of sensitive groups may
experience more serious health effects.
AQI values between 201 and 300 trigger a health alert for everyone.
AQI values over 300 trigger health warnings of emergency conditions.
Such values rarely occur in the United States.
Consider Focus Groups for Public Feedback
In developing the AQI and ozone maps, EPA conducted a series of eight focus groups around the country
which evaluated the effectiveness of these tools for risk communication. The groups examined how effec-
tively the map, cautionary statements, and an ozone health effects booklet (Smog—Who Does it Hurt?)
conveyed information to the general public and targeted audiences. Four different versions of the map
were tested.
4-4
CHAPTER 4
-------
TABLE 4-3. HEALTH EFFECTS AND PROTECTION MEASURES
ASSOCIATED WITH AQI CATEGORIES
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A Map Generator (MapGen) system produces both still-frame images of ozone concentrations, includ-
ing hourly snapshots of data, and animated maps illustrating the movement of ground-level ozone over
time. MapGen enables users to customize the maps based on their data and outreach needs. Users of
MapGen can also customize maps to show supporting information such as geographic features, identify-
ing text, and images. During the ozone season (May through September for most areas), the ozone
maps are updated daily every hour. The software developed under this project is publicly available at no
cost. Figure 4-1 shows an image composed using MapGen.
Figure 4-1
The map shows that ozone levels ranged from good
to very unhealthy across the region
Figure 4-1. Ozone map generated with MapGen.
Source: U.S. EPA, 2002c (http://www.epa.gov/airnow).
The AIRNow project is staffed by contractors and
operates on a 24/7 basis. An automated quality con-
trol procedure processes reports that come in from the
local, state, and EPA offices. Program staff also con-
duct additional quality assurance reviews of the data.
A night staff ensures 24-hour-a-day accessibility of the
system. AIRNow also has contacts at the state and
local levels who provide technical support to fix prob-
lems with particular ozone monitors. The continuous
monitoring provided by AIRNow obviates the need
for local EPA offices to constandy check their ozone
measuring instruments.
Full implementation of the automated real-time ozone mapping system in the eastern United States
began in 1998. The map will ultimately include all of the contiguous United States and feature addi-
tional pollutants (e.g., particulate matter).
4.Z.Z.3 OTHER RISK COMMUNICATION TOOLS USED BY
THE AIRNOW PROGRAM
The AIRNow Web site includes an interactive AQI calculator that enables the user to convert ambient
ozone concentrations (parts per billion or parts per million) to AQI values and vice versa. The
AIRNow program also operates an online "WebBoard" that provides technical assistance and facilitates
information sharing by program participants. The site posts question-and-answer sessions, contains a
comprehensive search feature, and hosts a chat room related to ozone mapping. Off the Web,
AIRNow provides conventional printed materials, such as fact sheets, booklets, and reports.
4.2.3 KEY ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Many innovative ozone outreach efforts have been implemented around the country using AIRNow
communication tools. The project has placed a special focus on working with weather service providers
for inclusion of the ozone maps in local television weather forecasts. The maps are also being used by
local media in feature coverage of local and regional Ozone Action Day programs. AIRNow tools are
also being integrated into science and health curricula, and are used for hodines that provide recorded
information about current and forecasted ozone levels.
The AIRNow Web site gets over 3 million hits a month. On national cable television, The Weather
Channel and CNN include AQI forecasts on their morning and evening weather forecasts during the
ozone season and are working with EPA to make this a year-round information product. The Weather
Channel's Web site, http://www.weather.com, includes air quality forecasts on its health page every day,
year-round. (Figure 4-2 shows an example of www.weather.com's air quality information.) Also, the
national newspaper USA Today publishes AQI information during the summer and is working to
make this a year-round feature.
4-6
CHAPTER 4
-------
,,1. -,„ •.
n»ffi»ffi»immHim
www.weather.com
4-2, The Weather Channel's air Figure 4-2
Source: Image courtesy of The
Weather Channel, 2002 (http://www.weather.com).
In addition to their widespread use in daily news-
paper, television, and radio weather reporting, the
AQI and other AIRNow products are the pri-
mary risk communication tools used in regional
and local "Ozone Action Days" to inform the
media and the public of health concerns associat-
ed with poor air quality.
4.2.4 LESSONS LEARNED
In developing and implementing AIRNow risk
communication tools, EPA and participating
state air quality programs have learned some
valuable lessons that have contributed to their success:
• It was important to get broad public feedback in creating and refining the AQI. Although
achieving consensus is always desirable, the Agency learned that complete consensus was
unlikely to occur. Semantic arguments were common, especially about defining or characteriz-
ing the "gray" areas on the borderline between "good" and "bad" air quality.
• A positive (rather than negative) focus was found to be very important for effective risk
communication. For example, EPA's research showed that people overwhelmingly preferred
the name "Air Quality Index" to "Pollutant Standards Index."
• EPA also learned that it is important to offer enough categories (e.g., 4 to 10) to display
variability in air quality and health effects information. State and local air agencies are not
required to display categories they do not use.
• In refining the AQI, EPA learned the importance of keeping the Index as simple as possible,
but consistent with the health message.
• EPA also learned to use short, media-ready statements. This is the genesis of the sensitive
groups statements (for example, for ozone: "children and people with asthma are the groups
most at risk").
• It is important to use plain language (e.g., "unhealthy" rather than "unhealthful."). (See
Chapter 5.)
• Developing an appropriate and intuitive color-coding scheme is vital in public risk education.
AQI has become very well understood in just 2 years because the color scheme works so well.
• In developing the AQI and AIRNow risk communication tools, it was (and continues to be)
important to consider other contemporary visualization tools, such as weather maps, used by
national print and broadcast media.
• A lesson learned by the Sacramento Air Quality Management Division in getting ozone maps
on television was the importance of cultivating strong working relationships with local broad-
cast meteorologists. In addition to pushing for broadcast of the maps, Division staff provided
the meteorologists with information on all types of air quality issues, made themselves avail-
able to television station staff for their weather-related news and reports, and helped the sta-
tions develop feature stories. See the box below for more information on the Sacramento
ozone mapping project.
CASE STUDIES
4-7
-------
The Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission was able to render more accurate and
timely maps by using 1-hour running averages. A high modem-to-monitor ratio also proved
to be important in ensuring fast data transmission. See the box below for more on the Texas
ozone mapping project.
In establishing its monitoring system, Texas learned that the density of the monitoring net-
work is critical to producing useful and accurate ozone maps. Hence, the system uses one
modem for every four monitoring stations.
Sacramento Works the Media
The Metropolitan Air Quality Management District (AQMD) in Sacramento, California, has successfully
integrated AIRNow risk communication tools into local weather reports. AQMD has a long history of work-
ing with the region's television meteorologists to familiarize them with the AQI and regional air quality
issues. When ozone mapping became available in 1996, it proved to be a valuable new outreach tool.
Since 1998, two Sacramento television stations have regularly aired AQMD's animated ozone maps and
forecasts during weather segments on the stations' combined nine daily newscasts. AQMD has consis-
tently sought feedback from the meteorologists to ensure that the maps serve their needs. AQMD's Web
site, http://www.sparetheair.com, provides animated ozone maps ("Ozone Movies") that are updated
hourly during the ozone season (May 1 through October 31). The local all-news radio station also regu-
larly broadcasts air quality forecasts within weather and traffic reports.
Ozone Movie Archive
fSnir: [)ini highlighted in orjuisr h:nl ji Icaii ITU- nitonr monitoring
- 111 llii rvgiun rvild.-fa ut LArat-il 1(11 AQI 4 1 nlitjjlln Fur M-miliM- Gmt
* v in nJ h.ul ill ka»t UHL vltf ruili ur « \mij 1? I .SL.H I I
www.airquaity.oig
wvnw.eparethe&icwn
Source: Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District, 2002.
4.2.5 FUTURE PLANS
The AIRNow program is integrating new technologies into its risk communication tools. For
example, EPA is working toward using a CIS map rather than standard maps for different metro-
politan areas. The plan is to introduce a CIS map of the whole country that enables users to zoom
in on a specific area. This will make it possible for each user to more easily localize the map and
access more specific, local air quality information.
4-B
CHAPTER 4
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Timeliness and Accuracy in Texas
In 1994, the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission (TNRCC) upgraded its 20-year-old air
quality monitoring technology. Of paramount concern was the need to provide accurate and immediately
useful information to the public, especially during the ozone season, which is longer in Texas than in most
other parts of the country. The new system purchased by Texas collects data every 5 minutes and trans-
mits the data to regional hub computers. Every 15 minutes the hubs transmit data to the central office. In
accordance with EPA rules, the central office averages 12 5-minute data reports to derive hourly averages.
TNRCC is currently mapping southeastern Texas (covering the Houston, Galveston, and Brazoria region)
and the Dallas/Fort Worth area, and will start mapping El Paso during the summer of 2002. TNRCC is
working with the government in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, to include monitoring on that side of the border
and anticipates that the El Paso map will be bilingual.
In creating ozone maps from the data collected, TNRCC uses 1-hour running averages to improve the pres-
entation of air quality changes over time. TNRCC is widely recognized as providing some of the fastest
(and therefore most accurate) real-time air quality updates among participants in the AIRNow program.
Animated Ozone Concentrations
•AWmlrVvC Kilttifj*'~.\i_ftlilhr.«H.irt-(i*!xtv_tfimiBWf 12
Source: Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission, 2002.
4.3 THE RIVER INDEX PROJECT
4.3.1 PROJECT HISTORY
The Miami Valley River Index Project, one of EMPACT's
Metro Grant programs, provides time-relevant water quality
information on some of the rivers and creeks surrounding
Dayton, Ohio. Before the project began, there was little pub-
lic awareness of the Dayton area's watershed. What public
awareness did exist tended to be unduly pessimistic about the
environmental condition of the Miami Valley's waterways.
The River Index program was founded in 1998 as a way to
improve public knowledge about the condition of these
waterways and thus make them more accessible to recreational use. Some of the water-related
recreational activities that the Dayton-area public now engage in include canoeing, fishing, and
bicycling along the river shorelines.
Photo courtesy of Miami River Index
(Dayton, Ohio)
CASE STUDIES
4-9
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Official work on the River Index Project proceeded in January 1999 as a collaboration between
many different partners: the Miami Valley Regional Planning Commission, the Miami
Conservancy District, the consulting firm CH2M Hill, Inc., the City of Dayton, Wright State
University, the Yellow Spring Instrument Company, and the U.S. Geological Survey. The River
Index Project has collected data from six Dayton-area automated monitoring sites over the last 3
years (1999, 2000, and 2001). The project's data collection season runs for the period of time in
which the public is likely to make use of the rivers — roughly from the beginning of summer
through early fall.
4.3.2 EFFECTIVE METHODS
4.3.2. 1 OVERVIEW OF THE RIVER PROJECT INDEXES
An innovative risk communication tool of the River Index Project is its indexing system, which
synthesizes a wide array of water quality data. The indexing system converts measurements into a
single, easy-to-understand rating, which is disseminated to the public on the Web site
http-.llwww. riverindex. org.
A key concern for the River Index Project as it developed its index and other risk communication
tools was that the tools meet, and be perceived as meeting, the highest professional and scientific
standards. Yet generating a river quality index involved making judgement calls about where to set
cutoffs between different categories of environmental quality (i.e., between "excellent" and "good"
river quality). Also necessary were judgement calls about how to weight and combine an array of
dissimilar measurements into a single measurement of river quality. To this end, the River Index
Project recruited eight internationally recognized water quality experts to serve on a review panel
that supervises the project's activities.
Drawing on their own expertise and that of a peer review panel, the staff of the River Index Project
developed two indexes to convey information about local rivers:
• A water quality index, which synthesizes and summarizes information about the following
river water measurements:
- Dissolved oxygen - Specific conductivity
- E. coli - Temperature
.
• A river index, which includes all the parameters of the water quality index plus two additional
physical parameters:
- Flow rate
- Turbidity
While the water quality index focuses on those issues pertaining to the health of the river ecosys-
tem, the river index provides a broader sense of whether conditions are right for recreational use of
a river. Flow rate is a particularly important parameter for determining river safety. A very high
flow rate not only indicates strong, potentially dangerous currents, it warns of possible flooding.
For the sake of safety, the river index is set up to automatically take the "poor" rating (regardless of
how good the other parameters are) if flow rate approaches a level characteristic of flood activity.
Under these circumstances, the River Index Web site also displays a special flood warning.
4.3.Z.Z COMMUNICATING THE INDEX
General vs. Specific Ratings. The River Index is a mathematical procedure for "rating" a stretch of
water in terms of its current suitability for recreational pursuits. The system does not specify which
particular recreational activities are likely to be safe or advisable — it simply states whether or not
4-1 D CHAPTER 4
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the river conditions are favorable for recreation in general. The developers of the River Index
originally considered issuing use-based advisories (e.g., the river is or is not safe for boating, swim-
ming, fishing, etc.) but ultimately decided against this strategy because they felt it called for overly
subjective judgements and exposed the project to an undesired level of legal liability. It remains the
responsibility of individual users to make their own judgments about whether or not a particular
river activity is wise. The River Index Web site also provides the raw data upon which its general
rating was founded, which may help the user make such decisions.
River Index Maps and Icons
On the main page of its Web site, the River Index Project displays a schematic map of the Miami River
Valley, centered on the city of Dayton, Ohio. The purpose of this map is to provide an "at-a-glance" sum-
mary of water quality for all the rivers covered by the project. The most prominent features of the map are
the area's rivers and streams, colored light blue. Certain river segments are labeled on the map. The
background color of each segment's label changes to match the river's current water quality index—a key
on the map reminds the viewer of what each color means. The map also displays the boundaries of local
counties.
One prominent feature of this map is the cartoon-like icon of a "happy fish." The happy fish serves as a
navigational icon and a recurrent design element throughout the Project's Web site. On various other
pages of the Web site, there are small, click-able icons of happy fish that return the user to the River Index
home page. This iconography not only makes it easier to refer back to the summary map, but also gives
visual and thematic cohesion to the entire Web site.
Source: River Index Project, 2002.
What the Ratings Mean. Each of the six monitoring sites may have a different river index "rating,"
depending on how many points have been assigned to it in the indexing process. Table 4-4 sum-
marizes the different ratings.
CASE STUDIES
4-1 1
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TABLE 4-4. RATING SYSTEM USED IN THE RIVER INDEX
Rating
Excellent
Good
Fair
Poor
Number of
Total Points
32-40
25-31
18-24
11-17
Meaning
"Overall measurements indicate high water quality.
Conditions highly favorable for recreation."
"Most measurements meet or exceed Water Quality Standards.
Conditions favorable for recreation."
"Some measurements meet or exceed Water Quality Standards.
Conditions marginally favorable for recreation."
"Measurements indicate some water quality problems.
Conditions generally not favorable for most recreation."
Color-Coded Index Ratings. Each of the index ratings is paired with a color. Table 4-5 summarizes
the color relationships used by River Index and their cultural connotations. The color scheme cho-
sen by the River Index Project amplifies and coincides with the explanatory text for each rating.
This is particularly important because some people may not bother to read and/or think about the
carefully crafted text (included in Table 4-4) that explains each rating. These people may simply
note the color of the rating and make their conclusions about the river based on their intuitive
understanding of that color. Other people might read the explanatory language but be confused
about its practical significance (e.g., about the difference between "favorable" and "highly favor-
able"). The cultural connotations of a color help to communicate the level of risk reflected by the
different ratings.
TABLE 4-5. COLOR-CODING SYSTEM USED IN THE RIVER INDEX
Rating Color
Excellent
Green
Cultural Significance of Color
In traffic signals, the green light says "go ahead." Similarly, this rating
entices the index user to "go ahead" and use the river for recreation.
Green also connotes environmental well-being. It suggests that the river
is not only good for recreation, but also ecologically healthy.
Good
Blue
Unlike the other three colors, blue is not used in traffic signals. "Good"
therefore lacks the directive impact that the other ratings possess.
In aesthetic terms, however, it is widely accepted as the normal color of
water. Even though "good" is not the best possible rating, the color blue
reassures the index user that the water is still clean and safe.
Fair
Yellow
Yellow is the caution light in traffic signals. Without forbidding passage,
it exhorts the viewer to exercise discretion and maintain a heightened
state of awareness. Similarly, a yellow rating encourages the River Index
user to think twice about his or her plans for using the river. The color
encourages the user to learn more about the specific nature of the river's
problems.
Poor
Red
In traffic, the color red commands the viewer to stop. In an
environmental context, it also conveys an impression of danger,
emergency, and authority. The color red anchors "poor" at the bottom
of the ranking system and it indicates that there is, at present, a serious
problem with the river. The color encourages users to avoid the river
altogether until the situation improves.
4-1 2
CHAPTER 4
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Averaging Index Values. Since some of the factors that contribute to the calculation of the river
index change hourly, the river index itself must be updated frequently. It is updated every 8 hours,
using an average of the previous 8 hourly automated readings and the most recent manual read-
ings. Web site visitors can "drill down" to the most recent automated readings from the monitoring
stations if they wish. One reason for updating the index only every 8 hours (rather than hourly) is
to prevent it from fluctuating in a seemingly random and confusing manner. It is conceivable that,
depending on the value of particular water parameters, the river index might be on the borderline
between two different readings—for example, "good" and "fair." If the index were updated every
hour, insignificant variation (i.e., "noise") in a river's water quality parameters might cause its rat-
ing to flip-flop between good and fair. This phenomenon might undermine public confidence in
the index's reliability. This pitfall is avoided by reliance on averaged data, which are more likely to
reflect significant changes in water quality.
Another Data Visualization Tool: Dials
Before the widespread use of digital readouts, scientific instruments typically presented their readings
by means of analog dials. In automobiles, these dials remain the principal technology for communi-
cating real-time information (e.g., speed, RPMs, oil pressure) to the driver. Thus, for many people the
idea of reading a value off of a dial is quite intuitive.
In the River Index Project, each dial has four sections, one for each of the four ratings. The needle of
the dial always points to the middle of a section of the dial. All the sections of the dial are labeled (poor,
fair, good, excellent) but only the one that the needle is pointing to is "lit up" with color. These dials
do not represent continuous variation in index values: since the needle simply "jumps" from one state
to the next, the dial would not distinguish between a "good" rating that was very close to "fair" and
one that was very close to "excellent." An interested user could make this distinction by looking at the
actual numerical score for the index; but the fact that the dial does not visually distinguish between
different scores within a single rating might convey the message that the distinction is unimportant.
http://www.riverindex.org
4.3.2.3 CALCULATING THE RIVER INDEX
Except for the special case of flood danger, the procedure for determining the River Index is
described below.
Step 1: Rate individual water quality parameters. Each of the water quality parameters that con-
tribute to the River Index can have a different value. The River Index rates these parameters as
either poor (1 point), fair (2 points), good (3 points), or excellent (4 points).
Let us take the case of dissolved oxygen as an example. According to Ohio EPA regulations and
the judgement of several water quality experts, dissolved oxygen levels greater than 9 milligrams per
liter (mg/1) are "excellent," levels between 5 and 9 mg/1 are "good," levels between 2 and 5 mg/1 are
"fair," and any value below 2 mg/1 is "poor." Therefore, a reading of 5.6 mg/1 of dissolved oxygen
would translate into 3 points, as shown in Table 4-6.
CASE STUDIES
4-1 3
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TABLE 4-6. EXAMPLE OF RATING SYSTEM FOR
INDIVIDUAL WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS
Dissolved Oxygen Level (mg/l)
>9
5-9
2-5
<2
Parameter Rating
Excellent (4 points)
Good (3 points)
Fair (2 points)
Poor (1 point)
Rating Parameters Are Based on Science
For pH, for which a central value is the best and extremes on either end are poor, the River Index splits
the pH parameter into an upper and lower range. Above pH 7, a lower pH garners more points; below pH
7, a higher pH garners more points.
Range
Excellent
(4 points)
Good
(3 points)
Fair
(2 points)
Poor
(1 point)
1
: Upper (pH>7)
- Lower (pH<7)
7-8
7-8
8-8.4
6.5-7
8.5-9
6-6.4
>9
<6
Thus, valuation may be different for different parameters, based on scientific information. For dissolved
oxygen (DO), an "excellent" rating of 4 is based on DO levels > 9, since the higher the DO level, the bet-
ter the water quality. For pH, an "excellent" rating of 4 is based on pHs between 7 and 8, since a pH above
or below this range is either too acidic or too basic.
Step 2: Weight and add the point values of the different parameters. On a basic level, the next step
involves simply adding up all the different points from the different water quality parameters. The
advantage of the point system is that it puts the parameters in a standardized form—there are only
four possible values per parameter, and the larger the sum total, the better the water quality.
An element of complexity is introduced, however, when one acknowledges that not all the water
quality parameters are equally important to the final quality of the river. To resolve this complexity,
the River Index staff developed a system for weighting points assigned to different parameters, as
shown in Table 4-7. The point value obtained in Step 1 for each parameter is multiplied by that
parameter's weighting factor to arrive at the final score for a particular parameter at a specific time
and place, which will range from a minimum score of 11 to a maximum score of 40. In other
words:
Point value of each parameter x weighting factor for each parameter = final value for each parameter
4-1 4
CHAPTER 4
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TABLE 4-7. WEIGHTING FACTORS USED To INDICATE
THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF PARAMETERS
Parameter
Dissolved oxygen
E. coli
pH
Specific conductivity
Water temperature
Flow
Turbidity
Weighting Factor
•
3
1
1
1
1
2
1
Thus: Total point score for river water quality = (dissolved oxygen value x 3) + (E. coli value x 1) + (pH value x 1) +
(specific conductivity value x 1) + (water temperature value x 1) + (flow value x 2) + (turbidity value x 1)
Step 3: Assign a final rating based on the total score from the individual parameters. There remains
the task of assigning a river segment a "poor," "fair," "good," or "excellent" water quality rating,
based on its total point value. Table 4-8 shows the cutoff ranges used in the River Index that
correspond to these water quality ratings.
TABLE 4-B. OVERALL RIVER WATER QUALITY RATING
AND CORRESPONDING CUTOFF RANGES
Water Quality Rating
Excellent
Good
Fair
Poor
Cutoff Ranges (Points)
32-40
25-31
18-24
11-17
One important caveat about the River Index's rating system is that it has a limited ability to convey
information about extreme deviations from the norm in any particular parameter. Say, for example,
that a river somehow became extremely acidic (e.g., pH 4). Out of a possible 40 points, the river
would lose 3 for the low pH. If all the other water quality parameters were in reasonable shape, the
final rating for an acidic, nearly lifeless river would be "excellent."
This of course, is a highly unlikely scenario since there is no practical reason why the pH of a river
near Dayton would suddenly drop in such an extreme fashion. The scenario merely serves to
demonstrate the logical limitations inherent in an empirically weighted, linear indexing system. As
mentioned earlier, the River Index Project has addressed this limitation by instituting a safety over-
ride to prevent extremely high flow levels from getting "hidden" in the index's scoring process. Any
organization developing a similar data interpretation tool in another context should consider
whether that tool's parameters could range to plausible extremes beyond which the tool would
cease giving reasonable output.
CASE STUDIES
4-1 5
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4.4.3LESSDNS LEARNED
The River Index Project has been successful in disseminating its daily river ratings through the
media as well as its Web site. Local newspapers ran stories about the project and some listed the
daily index on their weather page. Several television weather reports expressed some interest in dis-
playing river quality information, but the nature of TV reporting made this somewhat difficult
(e.g., TV weather reports would prefer to receive river index information as an immediately avail-
able, "prepackaged" video signal). Weekend TV weather reports did include the river index as a
recreational advisory.
Feedback from the public was modest but almost always positive. Anglers, in particular, were a
major audience for the information. The employees of a nearby vehicle manufacturing plant took a
particular interest in monitoring the quality of nearby rivers. The River Index Project sponsored a
pre-survey and a 2-year progress survey of their target audiences' knowledge of river conditions.
These surveys, conducted using random phone interviews, revealed that audience awareness of
Dayton's rivers has increased slightly over the time period in which the River Index Project operat-
ed. However, the survey did not reveal widespread awareness of the River Index Project or the
indexes themselves. This was the case in spite of the fact that the river indexes had been
announced in the area news media, advertised on buses, and incorporated into a professionally
designed Web site. In hindsight, the staff of the River Index Project concluded that they should
have employed a marketing expert when they first presented the river indexes to the public. They
felt that the project would have benefitted from more extensive "brand-building" to increase public
awareness and media interest in it. The River Index Project continues to evaluate and revise its
program to make it more meaningful and cost-effective.
4.4 LAKE ACCESS PROJECT
4.4.1 PROJECT DESCRIPTION
The Lake Access water quality monitoring project was initiated in the state of Minnesota to deliver
near-real-time data to a variety of audiences. The project aims to provide public officials, scientists,
and the general public with information that will help them make sound decisions regarding water
quality issues. The project team developed a series of data visualization tools that present scientific
measurements in easy-to-understand formats such as charts or three-dimensional images. These
tools allow data that were once available to and used mainly by scientists to be accessible and use-
ful to the general public.
The Lake Access team developed interactive data presentation tools with the goal of giving users
control of the data. The different audiences for Lake Access data have different specific needs and
interests. For example, a public official might be interested in determining the effects that phos-
phorus contamination from fertilizers have on local lakes, while a fisherman might be interested in
knowing the oxygen content in certain areas of a lake to help determine where fish will most likely
be located. Thus, the Lake Access project made many of its tools "user-controlled" (see Chapter 5)
to allow more flexibility in manipulating and presenting data.
The project team uses Remote Underwater Sampling System (RUSS) devices to collect time-rele-
vant information from four locations in Minnesota. RUSS units collect data on five water quality
variables:
• Conductivity: The amount of dissolved salts, or ions, in water.
• Turbidity: An indication of how clear the water is.
4-1 s CHAPTER 4
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• Dissolved oxygen: A certain amount of oxygen is necessary for the survival of aquatic
organisms.
• Water temperature.
• pH: In water, the pH level determines the solubility and availability of chemical constituents,
including heavy metals.
These RUSS units are also used in lakes elsewhere in the country. The Lake Access project aims to
work with these other monitoring programs, such as those at Lake Onondaga in Syracuse, New
York; Lake Washington, Seattle; and elsewhere in Minnesota. The project team also collects other
types of information from additional monitoring stations, and integrates the non-RUSS data with
the RUSS data.
The Lake Access project is a cooperative effort of the Suburban Hennepin Regional Park District;
the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District; the University of Minnesota Water on the Web
Investigators (i.e., the Natural Resources Research Institute, the University of Minnesota-Duluth
Department of Education, and Minnesota Sea Grant); and Apprise Technologies, Inc., which holds
the license to RUSS technologies. Many of the key features on the Lake Access Web site, such as
the data visualization tools, were developed under a grant from The National Science Foundation's
Advanced Technology Education Program.
4.4.2 EFFECTIVE METHODS
The Lake Access project's data visualization and interpretation tools include color maps, charts,
and three-dimensional animation to convey and manipulate water quality profiles collected by
RUSS units and from manual sampling. Although these tools are designed to work with data gen-
erated by RUSS technology, they could also be set up to work with data collected from different
monitoring systems in other communities. The Lake Access project team also uses the Carlson
Trophic State Index to rate water quality. A summary of the data visualization and interpretation
tools developed or used by Lake Access is shown in Table 4-9, and some of the tools are discussed
below.
Some of the Lake Access data visualization and interpretation tools deliver numerical data (Lake
Access Live) or offer users simple graphs and charts created in Microsoft Excel. Others offer more
sophisticated tools, such as CIS, that allow users to manipulate data. Most of the tools use color
and graphical interfaces to enable users to "see" the information.
4.4.2. 1 CARLSON TROPHIC STATE INDEX
The Lake Access project uses the Carlson Trophic State Index, which measures a water body's
eutrophication—the process by which lakes are enriched with nutrients, which increases the
production of aquatic plants and algae, removes oxygen, and diminishes water quality. The Index,
which is used by many organizations to set water quality goals, combines various measurements
(e.g., transparency, phosphorus concentration) into a rating of water quality that ranges from 0
to 100 (0 indicates clear water; 50 to 60 indicates mild concentration of nutrients, decreased
transparency, and "threatened" quality; and 100 indicates algal scums and summer fish kills).
CASE STUDIES 4-17
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TABLE 4-9.
SUMMARY OF LAKE ACCESS DATA VISUALIZATION
AND DATA INTERPRETATION TOOLS
Tool Group
Data visualization tools
(DVToolkit includes Profile
Plotter, Color Mapper, and
Depth Versus Time Profiler)
Lake Access Live: near-real-
time display of numeric data;
Profile Plotter; Color Mapper;
Depth Versus Time Profiler
Primary Uses
• Explore lake data as they vary with depth and
over time.
• Create animated water quality profiles.
• Feed real-time data to Web site.
• Investigate correlations between water quality
variables and trends.
Geographic information
systems (CIS)
Several, including Arclnfo;
ArcView; GeoMedia; and
Maplnfo Professional
• Integrate and model spatial data (e.g., water quality
and land use).
• Develop Internet mapping applications.
Data interpretation tool
Carlson Trophic State Index
Measure lake quality with a single index.
Lake Access Web Site
Color maps; charts;
DVToolkit; CIS maps
Interactive capabilities to develop custom maps.
Spreadsheet programs
Microsoft Excel; Lotus 1-2-3
• Display raw data.
• Investigate correlations between water quality
variables and trends.
• Create summary graphs of data.
The Lake Access Web site (described below) shows the data in sample color-coded graphs. For
example, blue represents clear water, while green indicates degrees of eutrophication. For water
quality between 40 and 45, a light green shade is visible, and at 80, the shade is dark green. The
site provides an in-depth discussion of the Index, and lets users access Index information for the
four Minnesota lakes showcased in this project.
4.4.2.2 LAKE ACCESS WEB SITE
The Lake Access Web site (http://www.lakeaccess.org) is the project's primary avenue of disseminating
information through visually interactive tools (e.g., color maps and charts of temperature and pH levels
in lakes). The site's design features a rolling banner that presents time-relevant data from RUSS units in
three lakes, as shown in Figure 4-3. The site also features a history page about one of the lakes, provid-
ing the user with background on the many influences that have affected the lake over time.
Figure 4-3. The Lake Access Web site's front Fi9ure 4"3
page for lake data. Visitors to the Web site
can access the tools available through the
Internet or they can download the
DVToolkit. With the DVToolkit saved on
his or her hard drive, the user can open the
data tools in a Web browser without having
to connect to the site. Users must download
the kit again if they want to access updated
information. The Lake Access team updates
the DVToolkit whenever it receives new
RUSS data. When using the toolkit online,
the user receives near-real-time data via the
Water on the Web server (http://wow.nrri.umn.edu/wow/).
It may take a while to load these data, but the toolkit runs quickly once they are loaded.
4-1 S
CHAPTER 4
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In addition to the interactive toolkit, the site offers users an interactive GIS mapping feature, with maps
showing land use and land cover, as well as information on soils, roads, political boundaries, and other
data layers that can be used in conjunction with the water quality data, such as the graph shown in
Figure 4-4.
Lthf Inr.p.rcHrv:. Tnp L*yw nil
1mlayer hSfldtrws irrtcotBcdtrdnndata
IUL
9.Q
9O
70
Figure 4-4. Water Quality Trends. Graphs can be very useful data visualization tools—for example,
to indicate trends over time. The graph above shows average pH values in the surface layer of Lake
Independence, part of the Lake Access project, over time. The vertical bars over the data points
represent the range of values measured for a particular day. Source: Lake Access, 2002.
Communicating Information to Specific Audiences
The Lake Access Web site is organized to present data to four distinct groups: swimmers, boaters,
anglers, and land owners. For different users, the site offers different information that varies from sim-
ple to complex. For example, if users click on the "Swimmers" link, the site takes them to a page that
shows the water temperature for Lake Independence, explains the risks of exposure to certain types
and levels of bacteria, and describes the illness "swimmer's itch." For fishers, the link takes users to
a page depicting the oxygen concentrations in Lake Minnetonka, Halstead Bay. Data are presented in
color graphs, in which green indicates ample oxygen, and black or darker colors represent areas of
depleted oxygen.
The "Lake Data" section of the site provides more complex information and leads users to the
DVToolkit. The section explains how RUSS data are collected, tells how the team ensures the quality
of the data, and provides a link to EPA's guidance on quality assurance measures. The "Lake Data"
section also explains important terms, such as conductivity, dissolved oxygen, pH, and turbidity.
Use of Color Coding. The DVToolkit, as well as the Excel-based graphs and charts, uses color to
help convey the data to the user. For example, the Color Mapper uses intuitive colors that range
from blue (to indicate cold) to red (to indicate hot) when measuring lake temperature, and colors
ranging from green (for "good") to black (for "poor") when measuring oxygen concentration.
Intuitive colors make it easier for users to understand data. For example, when using the Color
Mapper, users can see changes in oxygen concentration in the background color. When oxygen
concentration reaches 5 on the Color Mapper, the color fades to brown, then to blue when the
CASE STUDIES
4-1 9
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concentration reaches 3, then to black. For temperature, the color is blue until about 10 degrees
Celsius, after which it turns green, then yellow at 20 degrees Celsius, and finally red at 25 degrees
Celsius. These colors function the same way on the Depth Versus Time (DxT) Profiler and most
other Lake Access data visualization and interpretation tools.
The only tool that deviates from these color codes is the Profile Plotter, which features the six Lake
Access variables as lines plotted on a graph. Each category is assigned its own color, and these col-
ors do not represent changes in data, only the category itself (e.g., temperature). Figure 4-5 shows
examples from the Profile Plotter and Color Mapper.
Profile Plotter
<- - i
: . -
• , .,
Sm CIOJTJ p*. I
- —w^ ft** «
Color Mapper
Figure 4-5. Screens from the Lake Access Profile Plotter and Color Mapper. Source: Lake Access, 2002.
4.4.2.3 ANIMATION
Lake Access also employs sophisticated animation and two- and three-dimensional graphics to con-
vey water quality information to the public. Animation techniques are powerful visualization tools
to help individuals understand technical data. The Lake Access Profile Plotter conveys water quali-
ty over time. Users can animate the profiles to see daily, monthly, and annual changes. The Color
Mapper conveys the same information using a different graphical method: while the Profile Plotter
uses color-coded line graphs with multiple lines designated by the user, the Color Mapper uses a
single line with a color-coded background that represents another variable, allowing the user to
understand the correlation between two different variables (such as pH and temperature). The
Color Mapper can also be animated to show how the data change over time.
4.4.2.4 TWO- AND THREE-DIMENSIONAL VISUALIZATION
The Lake Access team wanted users to be able to display and analyze data in two or three dimen-
sions. Accordingly, the DxT Profiler allows users to select a time period and a variable (such as
oxygen concentration) and allows them to add grid lines, show the actual data points, and interpo-
late data by depth and time, as shown in Figure 4-6. This kind of flexibility in mapping informa-
tion allows users to create sophisticated analyses of water quality data. In addition, the tool is used
to create image files of the graphs for the Lake Access Web site.
The Lake Access project also uses movie files to display data. Many Web sites use movie files (e.g.,
MPEGs, AVIs) to showcase video clips of items such as movies and news programs, but movie files
can also be used to animate data. This unique method for displaying and conveying data is
extremely useful for demonstrating how lake temperature changes throughout the year. By using a
combination of color, motion, and easy-to-understand charts, the animation provides users with a
good idea of where and when lake temperature is affected.
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The Lake Access team created an AVI animation of a chart depicting the change in lake temperature
over time. The animation starts off with an image of a lake moving along the X axis of a chart, with
the X axis representing time and the Y axis representing the lake's depth. The dates displayed change
as the picture moves along the X axis, as does the color of the lake. The user can see how the water
nearer the surface heats up during the summer months (and that the temperature at the lake bottom
remains relatively unchanged), and how the entire lake reaches a uniform temperature in the winter
months. A question mark appears in the lower portion of the image to indicate periods in which no
data were collected. Once the image reaches the end of the axis, it becomes a three-dimensional
image displaying the lake's various temperatures, as well as lake depth. It then rotates into the DxT
plane, linking the animation to the output of the DxT Profiler and displaying a profile of the lake's
temperature change over time.
Figure 4-6. Example of Lake Access three-dimensional lake cross-section x time animation. Source:
Host et al., 2000.
4.4.Z.5 GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS
GIS maps provide power and flexibility in using data. At the Lake Access Web site, under "Land
Use/GIS," users can see multiple land and water features for the Minnehaha Creek Watershed and
Hennepin Park District, as shown in Figure 4-7. This Web-based capability uses ArcView Internet
Map Server (IMS) to distribute GIS data. Users can zoom in and out of maps and perform queries
to gather information about different map elements. The IMS allows users to turn off different
kinds of map layers such as roads and water bodies. The IMS screen has three sections:
• A toolbar for performing map operations
• An interactive legend that turns off different layers
• A frame that shows the map itself
CASE STUDIES
4-2 1
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i Pa Ik Dlilik-l
Q tint• -•
r|N • MfM**
Figure 4-7. A GIS map from the Lake Access Web site. Source: Lake Access, 2002.
The DVToolkit and the GIS mapping function, all freely and easily accessible via the Lake Access
Web site, are valuable data visualization tools that offer users the power to display different aspects
of water quality that interest them. Using the color-coded and graphical displays created by these
tools can help local officials and water users make decisions based on actual, near-real-time water
quality data.
4.4.Z.B OUTREACH
To effectively market the Lake Access tools to local officials and the general public, Lake Access
project coordinators worked with naturalists, teachers, museum officials, and others. After dis-
cussing target audiences, key messages, and the types of outreach materials they thought should
be developed, the project team created a variety of materials, including a Web site, a printed
brochure, and a survey. Kiosks were developed to reach those without Internet access.
Brochure and Survey. The Lake Access project released a "plain English" brochure describing the
components of the project. The brochure, a two-page, four-color publication entitled Seeing Below
the Surface, targets both the general public and those decision-makers interested in water quality
data, explains how the data are collected through RUSS units, and provides easy-to-follow infor-
mation on the data visualization tools available through the project's Web site.
The Lake Access project also conducted a survey to ascertain the public's general knowledge
of lakes and water quality and land-use issues in the Hennepin County area in Minnesota.
Administered to 450 randomly selected addresses, the survey included a cover page explaining the
Lake Access project, a postcard that residents could return if they wanted to participate in a focus
group, and a questionnaire covering lake use, level of concern about lake water quality, and pre-
ferred ways of receiving Lake Access project information. Forty percent of the residents responded
to the survey, and the results revealed that residents were generally somewhat concerned about or
interested in the lake and water quality.
Kiosks. The Lake Minnetonka Regional Parks Visitor's Center, the Eastman Nature Center, the
Science Museum of Minnesota, and the Great Lakes Aquarium in Duluth set up kiosks for users
without Internet access. The kiosks feature the same information as that found on the Lake Access
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Web site. Using a touch-screen computer at the kiosks, users can access the same time-relevant data
from the RUSS units.
Presentations. The Lake Access team also gives presentations to local officials. After using simple
visual tools, such as pie charts, to explain water quality data, the team encourages officials and
other interested parties to visit the Web site to explore its DVToolkit and GIS mapping features.
4.4.3 KEY ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Local officials typically rely on scientists and engineers for water quality advice because of the tech-
nical nature of the subject. By making highly technical data accessible and comprehensible to a lay
audience, Lake Access more directly involved the public in decision-making about water quality
issues.
4.3.3. 1 LAKE MINNETONKA
The Lake Access project has not only helped educate people about local water quality issues, but
also saved tax dollars. For example, a consulting group had recommended an $8 million project to
eliminate "external loading" (phosphates that enter a water body) of phosphates into Lake
Minnetonka. After data were analyzed, however, it was apparent that external loading was not as
critical as "internal loading" (existing phosphates that have settled to the bottom of the lake and
dissolve in the water). The $8 million project would not have addressed this problem. The Lake
Access team used the project's data visualization tools to persuade local decision-makers to consider
these facts, and the $8 million project did not proceed.
4.3.3.2 PHOSPHORUS RUNOFF
The Lake Access team also demonstrated the negative impacts on water quality from the use of
phosphorus-containing lawn fertilizers. High phosphorus concentrations in a lake promote rapid
growth of algae and other plant life, adversely affecting water quality. Public education through the
Lake Access data visualization and interpretation tools has prompted legislative activity to restrict
the use of phosphorus fertilizers.
4.4.4 LESSONS LEARNED
• The Lake Access team learned that traditional graphing techniques, such as simple pie charts
and bar graphs, are quite effective in communicating environmental information to the pub-
lic. Lake Access uses a variety of more innovative data visualization tools in its outreach to
environmental managers and elected officials, but it sometimes relies on the more traditional
tools for its public outreach efforts.
• The Lake Access team's partnership with a local university (the University of Minnesota)
greatly facilitated the design and maintenance of the Lake Access Web site. Major research
universities often have large, highly trained information technology departments; by partner-
ing with the University, the Lake Access project gained access to knowledgeable Web designers
at a reasonable cost.
• The Lake Access project planners found that the continual development of new data presenta-
tion and interpretation features is a major part of the labor involved in maintaining the Lake
Access Web site. The Web site staff spend about 50 percent of their time maintaining existing
data presentation components and about 50 percent developing and bringing new data pres-
entation tools online.
Lake Access is starting a new project to analyze phosphorus runoff. The tool will use a GIS
mapping function for evaluating a Minnesota watershed that drains into Lake Medicine. This
new model will be based on a pre-existing one called the Source Loading and Management Model.
The new model will be available on the Lake Access Web site once it is complete.
CASE STUDIES 4-23
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5
GUIDELINES FDR DEVELOPING AND USING
DATA VISUALIZATION AND INTERPRETATION
TOOLS FOR RISK COMMUNICATION
The following guidelines may help the staff of new or expanded environmental risk communication
programs to effectively develop and use the risk communication tools described in this handbook
and other outreach materials. Many of these guidelines are "common sense" but may be overlooked
as communications materials are developed.
Use data visualization as much as possible, and minimize the use of lengthy text.
When using text, use language that is appropriate for your audience.
It is often possible to use data visualization tools such as icons, maps, graphs, or
other visual tools in place of language to convey risk information. These visual
tools are useful because they tend to transcend cultural boundaries and differing
educational levels more easily than language does. Thus, your message may be
understood by more people through data visualization than through text. For
example, the icon on the left may be universally understood without words.
Some information, however, may be too complex to present without any language. When develop-
ing written communications, be sure to use a level of language that accurately represents your par-
ticular audience. For example, you may want a brochure written at an elementary school reading
level, with simple explanations of technical information, when addressing the general public or a
more targeted audience that may have little or no knowledge about the subject matter. For a more
specialized audience with some knowledge and education about a particular subject, you may want
to develop text written at a junior high school or higher reading level, with more detailed technical
information. If a brochure is for both the general public and a more educated audience, the more
advanced text might be placed is a separate section or in a sidebar.
universal colors and images whenever possible.
Some colors schemes and images are almost universally recognized, such as red for
"stop," green for "go," and yellow for "caution." Also, the icon of a circle with a
line through it is now well known to mean "don't do this"; superimposing this
symbol on a picture of a swimmer is a quick and easy way to communicate "don't
swim here" to a wide audience with varying degrees of education whose members
may speak different languages.
Using tools such as standardized icons and color-coding can increase the usefulness of your risk
communication materials.
GUIDELINES
5-1
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When communicating risk information, include actions that people can take to
minimize their health risks.
Communicating environmental risks usually involves informing people about the potential health
effects that might be associated with exposure to certain environmental conditions, such as skin
cancer and cataracts from overexposure to UV radiation from the sun; gastrointestinal illness from
ingesting beach water contaminated with high levels of certain types of bacteria; or lower IQin
children who have ingested backyard soil contaminated with significant levels of lead.
It is equally important to let people know what actions they can take to avoid such risks, such as
avoiding time in the sun on certain days, refraining from swimming in a particular beach area for a
day or two, or obtaining state advice about whether they should get their backyard soil cleaned up.
These risk avoidance actions should ideally be communicated simultaneously with the risk expo-
sure information.
the best communication style: "Telling" or "User-Controlled'
Often one of the first steps in a risk communication/outreach program is determining who your
audience is (deciding on your "target audience"), analyzing their information needs, and choosing
the best communication style to fit those needs. For example, will your risk communication strate-
gy involve primarily "telling" a large segment of the general public some relatively simple informa-
tion, or will it involve giving a more specialized, knowledgeable audience some control in selecting
the different types of information they are seeking? The latter might involve setting up a relatively
more complicated environmental database that allows some "user control." Some projects use a
combination of these two styles, first providing general information in a "telling" style, then pre-
senting more detailed information (or, on a Web site, links to such information).
THE "TELLING" STYLE DF RISK C D M M U N I CATI D N
When your strategy involves providing ("telling") relatively simple risk information to people with
little prior knowledge about a subject, some of the guidelines described above for risk communica-
tion are particularly important, such as using visual tools and relatively simple language. For exam-
ple, the designers of the Southeastern Wisconsin Beach Health Web site, which provides informa-
tion about beach water quality conditions and closures, established a system for presenting relative-
ly simple data about beach water quality. All visitors to this Web site initially receive essentially the
same type of information (e.g., beach quality on specific days at particular beaches) presented in
essentially the same way. (For users with a more detailed interest in water quality trends or specific
test results, the Web site also provides a "user-controlled" section; after specifying particular data
sets and time periods, more advanced users can obtain detailed laboratory results presented in tab-
ular form.) Even when using the "telling" mode of communication, it may be useful to provide an
option to display the Web site in a language other than English.
Risk communicators (including Web site designers) seeking to "tell" information to the public
should avoid overestimating the amount of effort that their audience is willing to expend in pur-
suit of this information. Ideally, for a Web site, the user should not be required to do more than
type in a single, memorable URL and then make one or two obvious clicks of the mouse in order
to view the risk information.
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Examples of EMPACT projects that follow the "telling" style of risk communication include:
Sun Wise, AIRNow, Miami Valley River Index, and Southeastern Wisconsin Beach Health, some of
which are discussed below.
SunWise. The Sun Wise program provides a wide range of educational resources designed to inter-
est children in the issue of UV exposure and help them gauge current UV levels in their home
areas. The SunWise program uses some traditional outreach methods, such as classroom exercises
and colorful brochures, but it also uses some innovative materials, such as hand-held UV monitor-
ing devices and UV-sensitive frisbees that change color depending on how long they are exposed to
the sun. These educational materials prime students for the "telling" component of the SunWise
program, which involves providing NWS predictions of local UV intensity. Students can obtain
these predictions directly from the SunWise Web site or through other media, such as television or
newspaper weather reports.
U.S. ffivJranmftnta/ Profftcttan Ag*«cy
Dally UV Index Contour Map
Thu
For More Information
For no* infcxnufaon absut f* W Indrr,
•retail Ihe tixl ntih»
B •••(,- . I ! --•'• ' ' ••-'• :| !l>- •
r'ni|Hi:v.n Hull™ il B(J:i ^S-S986
Today's UV Index
The UV Index is calculated daily
l Bulletpn l»Mi<-"i«»»T>| (prnvidss a 2 column
texl lislma of the onqmal 56 UV Index cities and then
Corresponding d4ily fortcasl value)
(pryifcijiff .) rrl.ip 01 ' th* US vnlh ij.llly
UV Index values placed accordingly tor the original
58 ciuss)
' '• " i. (provides a map of the US lhat is
conloured with .appropriate intensity colors (or daily UV
Index values scioss Ihe entire US)
http://www.epa.gov/sunwise/uvindex.html
http://www.epa.gov/sunwise/uvindexcontour.html
GUIDELINES
5-3
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Southeastern Wisconsin Beach Health. This program's Web site initially provides the answer to a
basic question of interest to a large number of people in the Milwaukee/Racine, Wisconsin, area
each summer: Which beaches are open for swimming? As soon as a user opens the Web site, he or
she is presented with a list of local beaches. A color-coded icon (either a blue swimmer or a red
crossed-out swimmer) provides an immediate visual indication of whether a particular beach is
open for swimming. (This Web site also provides more "user-controlled" information elsewhere on
the Web site.)
l £> fl 11 h
lCLU I rl
: u-ti-i il:i l in
Welcome to the Southeastern
Wisconsin Beach Health website
Ofetiln Hi* dairy water quality tendMletn at b&«h« In MRwauk«e,
South Mttwauh«e, Rjclne, Fax Point. Shtxewoed, WhUeflsti Bay,
Kenntu, Mjiiitertce. Aim Port w«l*iiijHa*i Wttcniln ttirougfitut
Latest aralaDlr teach water
qjaMyconations
ii I«BT HOIUHE 1*1*) IW-J4W I
ANNOUMCBUEtfTS
The beach seafun wilJ begin June 15, 2002.
W—rtsnlti to he
http://infotrek.er.usgs.gov/pls/beachhealth
THE "USER-CDNTRDLLED" STYLE DF RISK
COMMUNICATION
Some projects serve a smaller audience (e.g., a subset of the public, local health officials, etc.) that
is likely to have specific and detailed interests in particular aspects of a project's environmental
data. The risk communication/outreach strategies for these projects may be most useful if they give
users more control over what information they obtain and how their data are presented. For exam-
ple, the Lake Access project presents information about how water quality in certain lakes varies
with depth and over time. Someone with an interest in such specialized data may have a fair
amount of education on the topic and be willing to expend some energy in pursuing the informa-
tion. It is also reasonable to assume that the precise nature of such an informed user's interest
would be difficult for a risk communicator to anticipate. Therefore, it would make sense to pro-
vide greater complexity and flexibility in using data visualization and interpretation tools than in
the "telling" risk communication style described above.
Examples of EMPACT projects that follow the "user-controlled" style of presentation include:
Lake Access, Boulder Area Sustainability Network (BASIN), Des Moines Waterworks, and the
Monitoring Your Sound (MYSound) project for Long Island Sound, as discussed below.
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Boulder Area Sustainability Network. The BASIN Web site provides public access to a wide range
of data sets collected from the watershed of Boulder, Colorado. These data sets provide time-rele-
vant information about snowpack levels, stream flow, water quality, and toxic releases in the
Boulder area. Users of the BASIN Web site can generate graphs of different water quality parame-
ters by specifying the date and parameters that they are interested in viewing. They can compare
the behavior of different parameters by choosing to view those parameters on a single Web page.
Gay XBtt-SAttKSuS »'tl«
Boulder Creek Watershed
COB Water Quality
Monitoring Silts
Water quality data is collected monthly by the City of Boulder at IS location s along Boulder Crock.
Vltw data as a prpfflc alum flic North BouMir CrrfkBouMcr Creek jrnicrn
View data as annual tout rerica at a particular location
View data as graphs of water quality parameters on a rnap
View to* MSI-' Wattr OraBtt Iniky computed for e»ch month an* station In waltrrtxl
Boulder CreefcfNortn Boulder Creek Water Quality Profiles
To sec graphs of water quality1 in Boulder Crctk from upstream to downstream, use this Ibnn. S cite 1 the parameter
(s) of inltiest, iiKiiiih. y«i, and iiuiicale if you also want lo s« a data laljlc,
T Water Tcmptralure r Stream Flow (B'pH (Acidity')
r Specific Conductance r Alkafinity r Hardness
r Turtridily r Total Dissolved Solids r Told Suspended Solids
r Nilrate and Kitrile r Nihil* r Ammonia
r Total Phosphat* r orrtw-phosphst* r Ftcal Colifonm Bactsria
r Dissolved Oxygen r Total Organic Caibon r All Parameters
12001 j |Se!e-aMcnihlc'F'r-rtlcjJ r Include Data Tabl*
RttS»KnPnO*lB5 Reiel Forni SelBdrant
http://bcn,t>oulder.co.us/basin/data^STREAMWQ/index.html
Des Moines Water Works. The Des Moines Water Works has established a Web site to provide
information about the water quality of its drinking water sources. It provides users with custom
water quality reports (including some graphs) in response to input queries. The user's input query
provides information about the particular water source, laboratory test, and time period of interest
to the user.
CitinUw rurtiii
tern [D3,M]/:TO:
QJJ i
GUIDELINES
5-5
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Monitoring Your Sound. The MYSound Web page
provides information about dissolved oxygen and other
water quality variables at various sampling locations along
Long Island Sound. Much of the information is provided
in the format of an instrument display panel. Users of the
MYSound Web page view current information by select-
ing which sampling buoy they wish to receive data from
and then selecting what kinds of data they are interested
in from that buoy (as well as whether they would prefer
to view the data in graphical or text format).
http://www.mysound.uconn.edu
CONCLUSION
The projects discussed in this handbook illustrate the wide range of data visualization and data
interpretation tools and techniques available for environmental risk communication, including
time-relevant environmental information. We hope that you have found these tools interesting and
useful for adaptation to your own risk communication efforts. We also hope that this handbook
stimulates further research and encourages development of additional tools to communicate envi-
ronmental risk.
Table 5-1 lists the addresses of the project Web sites discussed in this handbook; visit these sites if
you wish to explore the projects' risk communication messages further. The Reference list includes
additional resources. Also, an overview of environmental risk communication can be found in
EPA's publication Considerations in Risk Communication: A Digest of Critical Information (order no.
EPA/625/R-02/004). Ordering information for other titles in this series can be found in the order
booklet EPA/625/N-02/001 or at the EPA Web site: http://www.epa.gov/ttbnrmrl.
TABLE 5- 1
WEBSITES a F
HANDS an K
PROJECTS HIGHLIGHTED IN THIS
Web Site Name 1 URL
EPAAIRNow
Boulder Area Sustainability Information Network
Charles River Basin Flagging Program 2002
Des Moines Water Works EMPACT Project
Smog City
Lake Access
Miami Valley River Index
MYSound
Southeastern Wisconsin Beach Health
Spare the Air
EPA SunWise School Program
Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission:
Air Monitoring
http://www.epa.gov/airnow
http://bcn.boulder.co.us/basin
http://www.crwa.org/wq/daily/2002/daily.html
http://www.dmww.com/empact.asp
http://www.e-tulsa.net
http://www.lakeaccess.org
http://www.riverindex.org
http://www.mysound.uconn.edu
http://infotrek.er.usgs.gov/pls/beachhealth
http://www.sparetheair.com
http://www.epa.gov/sunwise
http://www.tnrcc.state.tx.us/air/monops/index.html
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REFERENCES
Charles River Watershed Association. 2002. Charles River Basin flagging program 2002.
Climate Prediction Center. 2000. UV Index: how to use it! National Oceanographic and
Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service.
Host, G.E., N.R, Will, R.P. Axler, C.J. Owen, and B.H. Munson. 2000. Interactive technologies
for collecting and visualizing water quality data. URISA Journal 12(3):39-45.
Lake Access. 2002.
National Weather Service. 2002. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
River Index Project. 2002. Miami Valley River Index,
Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District. 2002. Ozone movie archive.
Stone, S. 2000. Structure of the Air Quality Index (AQI). In: Air Quality Index and Emission
Inventory for Delhi: Abstracts. June 6-8, New Delhi. Centre for Science and Environment, India
Habitat Centre, New Delhi.
Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission. 2002. Animated ozone concentrations.
Tulsa Air and Water Quality Information System. 2002.
University of Connecticut. 2002. MYSound.
U.S. EPA. 1998. Report of eight focus groups on the Ozone Map, the Pollutant Standards Sub-
Index for Ozone, and the Ozone Health Effects Booklet. Report prepared by Eastern Research
Group, Inc. Washington, DC.
U.S. EPA. 1999a. Air quality guide for ozone. EPA/456/F-99/002. Washington, DC.
U.S. EPA. 1999b. Guideline for developing an ozone forecasting program. EPA/454/R-99/009.
Research Triangle Park, NC.
U.S. EPA. 1999c. Guideline for reporting of daily air quality—Air Quality Index (AQI).
EPA/454/R-99/010. Research Triangle Park, NC.
U.S. EPA. 1999d. Ozone and your health. EPA/452/F-99/003. Washington, DC.
U.S. EPA. 2000. Delivering timely water quality information to your community: the Lake
Access-Minneapolis project. EPA/625/R-00/013. Washington, DC.
U.S. EPA. 2002a. Sun Wise school program,
U.S. EPA. 2002b. Office of Environmental Information,
U.S. EPA. 2002c. AIRNow.
Weather Channel. 2002. Air quality forecast,
REFERENCES
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