United States
        Environmental Protection
        Agency
The  Particle Pollution  Report
                            missions rnroug
                             PM2.s Concentrations are Declining

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Printed on 100% recycled/recyclable process chlorine-free paper with 100% post-consumer fiber using vegetable-oil-based ink.

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                                                  EPA 454-R-04-002
                                                    December 2004
The  Particle  Pollution  Report
   Current Understanding of Air Quality and Emissions through 2003
                     Contract No. 68-D-02-065
                     Work Assignment No. 2-01
                  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
                Emissions, Monitoring, and Analysis Division
                  Research Triangle Park, North Carolina

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                                                  Introduction
Contents

Introduction                             ii

Major Findings                           1

Understanding Particle Pollution           2
    Particle Pollution Is...                  2
        Complex                         2
        A Continuum of Sizes             2
        Made Up of Many Species         3
        Seasonal                         4
        Both Local and Regional           8

Particle Pollution in 2003                 10
    PM10-PM2.5                         12
Looking at Trends                       13
    PM10 National and Regional Trends    13
    PM25 National and Regional Trends    14
    25-year PM2 5 Trends                 16
    Rural Sulfate Trends                  18

Explaining the Trends                    20
    Regional PM2 5 Trends in Three
     Regions (1999-2003)                 20
    Effect of Meteorology                21
    The PM25 Remainder                 22
    Control Programs                    23

The Future                             25
    Upcoming PM25 Designations         26
    PM2 5 and Other Pollutants           26
From the black puff of smoke from an old diesel bus to the
haze that obscures the view in our national parks, particle
pollution affects us all. This complex pollutant is present
year-round, both in our cities and in the countryside, and
it can cause health problems for millions of Americans.
EPA's national air quality standards for particle pollution
are designed to protect public health and the environment.
As this report shows, we are seeing progress: levels of particle
pollution are decreasing on a national scale. Yet millions
of people still live in areas of the country where particle
pollution levels exceed national  air quality standards. This
harmful pollution affects not only people, but also visibility,
ecosystems, and man-made materials.
EPA considers fine particle pollution its most pressing air
quality problem, and the Agency is taking a  number of steps
that will reduce particle emissions and formation. These
efforts range from EPA's Acid Rain program and regulations
reducing emissions from fuels and diesel engines, to imple-
mentation of the Agency's first fine particle standards and
a proposed rule to reduce particle-forming emissions from
power plants.
In this report, EPA
   Explores characteristics of particle pollution in the
   United States
 • Analyzes particle pollution for 2003 (the most recent
   year of data)
 • Summarizes recent and long-term trends
 • Investigates the relationship between air quality and
   emissions
 • Reviews some current programs and future prospects for
   reducing particle pollution levels.
In addition, text boxes in this report present information
on more specialized areas of interest, such as the PM
Supersite project, episodic  events, satellite monitoring, and
the relationship of particle pollution to other air pollutants.

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Major  Findings
 Air Quality Improvements
   Particulate matter (PM) air quality has been
   improving nationwide, both for PM2 5 and PM10.
 • PM2 5 concentrations
   - in 2003 were the lowest since nationwide moni-
      toring began in 1999
   - have decreased 10% since 1999
   - are about 30% lower than EPA estimates they
      were 25 years ago.
 • PM10 concentrations
   - in 2003 were the second lowest since nationwide
      monitoring began in 1988
   - have declined 7% since 1999
   - have declined 31% since 1988.
 • In 2003, 62 million people lived in 97 U.S. coun-
   ties with monitors showing particle pollution levels
   higher than the PM2 5 air quality standards, the
   PM10 standards, or both.
   Monitored levels of both PM2 5 and PM10 generally
   decreased the most in areas with the highest
   concentrations. For example, PM2 5 levels decreased
   20% in the Southeast from 1999 to 2003. The
   Northwest showed a 39% decrease in PM10 levels
   from 1988 to 2003.
 Sources and Emissions
   Sulfates, nitrates, and carbon compounds are the
   major constituents of fine particle pollution.
   Sulfates and nitrates form from atmospheric trans-
   formation of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen  oxide
   gases. Carbon compounds can be directly emitted,
   or they can form in the atmosphere from organic
   vapors.
   Approximately one-third of the PM2 5 improvement
   observed in the eastern half of the country can be
   attributed to reduced sulfates; a large portion of the
   remaining PM2 5 improvement is attributable to
   reductions in carbon-containing particles, especially
   in the Industrial Midwest and the Southeast.
  Power plant emissions of sulfur dioxide dropped
  33% from 1990 to 2003, largely as a result of EPA's
  Acid Rain program. These reductions yielded
  significant regional reductions in sulfate concentra-
  tions,  reducing acid deposition and improving
  visibility.
• Nationwide, reductions in industrial and highway
  vehicle emissions of fine particles and volatile
  organic  compounds appear to have contributed to
  the improvement in PM2 5.
  In the eastern half of the country
  - regional pollution accounts for more than half of
    the  measured PM2 5. This regional pollution
    comes from a variety of sources, including power
    plants, and can be transported hundreds of miles.
  - sulfates account for 25% to 55% of PM25 levels.
    Sulfate levels are similar in urban and nearby rural
    areas.  Power plants are the largest contributor to
    this sulfate formation.
  In the Industrial Midwest, Northeast, and southern
  California, nitrates make up a large portion of
  PM2 5, especially in winter.  Average nitrate  concen-
  trations  in urban areas are generally higher than
  nearby rural levels. Power plants  and highway
  vehicle emissions are large contributors to nitrate
  formation.
• EPA and states have put in place a number of
  control programs that will continue to reduce
  particle-forming emissions. EPA's 2004 Clean Air
  Nonroad Diesel Rule will significantly reduce
  emissions from nonroad diesel equipment across the
  country. EPA's proposed Clean Air Interstate Rule
  (proposed December 2003) will  reduce PM-
  forming emissions from power plants in the eastern
  United States.

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Understanding  Particle  Pollution
                                     Particle Pollution  Is..
      Complex
      Perhaps no other pollutant is as complex as
      particle pollution. Also called particulate matter
      or PM, particle pollution is a mixture of solid
      particles and liquid droplets found in the air.
      Some particles, such as dust, dirt, soot, or smoke,
      are large or dark enough to be seen with the
      naked eye. Others are so small, they can only be
      detected using an electron microscope.

      These tiny particles come in many sizes and
      shapes and can be made up of hundreds of
      different chemicals. Some particles are emitted
      directly from a source, while others form in
      complicated chemical reactions in the atmos-
      phere. And some can change back and forth
      from gas to particle form. Particle pollution also
      varies by time of year and by location and is
      affected by several aspects of weather, such as
      temperature, humidity, and wind.
A  Continuum  of Sizes
In general, particle pollution consists of a mixture
of larger materials, called "coarse particles," and
smaller particles, called "fine particles." Coarse
particles have diameters ranging from about
2.5  micrometers (urn) to more than 40 (am, while
fine particles, also known as known as PM2 5,
include particles with diameters equal to  or
smaller than 2.5 um. EPA also monitors and
regulates PM10, which refers to particles less than
or equal to 10 um in diameter. PM10 includes
coarse particles that are "inhalable" — particles
ranging in size from 2.5 to 10 um that can
penetrate the upper regions of the body's respira-
tory defense mechanisms.  "Ultrafme" particles
are a subset of PM2.5, measuring less than 0.1 um
in diameter.
                                    Figure 1. Comparison of PM sizes.
                                                                  C PM2.5

                                                               <2.5 um in diameter
                                        Human Hair
                                   -70 um average diameter
                                 90 um in diameter
                                  Fine Beach Sand
                                                             e courtesy of EPA, Office of Research and Development
                 Note: In this report, particle size or diameter refers to a normalized measure called aerodynamic
                 diameter, which accounts for the irregular shape and varying density of most particles.

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                                    Particle  Pollution Is..
Made  Up  of Many  Species

Particles are made up of different chemical
components. The major components, or species,
are carbon, sulfate and nitrate compounds, and
crustal materials such as soil and ash. The
different components that make up particle
pollution come from specific sources and  are
often formed in the atmosphere (see "Sources
and Transport of Particle Pollution" on page 6).
The chemical makeup of particles varies across
the United States (see Figure 2).  For example,
fine particles in the eastern half of the United
States contain more sulfates than those in the
West, while fine particles in southern California
contain more  nitrates than other areas of the
country. Carbon is a substantial component of
fine particles everywhere. (For information on
the composition of ultrafme and  coarse particles
in Los Angeles, see page  7.)
                Figure 2. Average PM2.5 composition in urban areas by region, 2003.
                              WEST                           EAST
                 Northwest
                                          Upper
                                         Midwest

                                          ©
          Southern
          California
                             Southwest
  Industrial
  Midwest
Northeast
 e
                                                      Southeast
                        ^  Sulfates
                        ^  Nitrates
                        <^  Carbon
                        ^  Crustal

                        Circle size corresponds
                        to PM2 5 concentration.
Note: In this report, the term"sulfates" refers to ammonium sulfate and "nitrates" refers to ammonium nitrate. "Carbon" refers to
total carbonaceous mass, which  is the sum of estimated organic carbon mass and elemental carbon. "Crustal" is estimated using the
IMPROVE equation for fine soil at vista.cira.colostate.edu/improve.
   This report summarizes analysis results using the geographic areas shown in this map.  The area definitions correspond to the regions
used in EPA's 1996 PM Criteria Document (www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs).
   In this report, "Hast" includes three regions: the Northeast, the Industrial Midwest, and the Southeast.
   Health and Environmental Effects of Particulate Matter
   Health Effects
   Exposure to particles can lead to a variety of serious health
   effects. The largest particles do not get very far into the lungs,
   so they tend to cause fewer harmful health effects. Coarse
   and fine particles pose the greatest problems because they
   can get deep into the lungs, and some may even get into the
   bloodstream. Scientific studies show links between these small
   particles and numerous adverse health effects. Long-term
   exposures to PM, such as those experienced by people living
   for many years in areas with high particle levels, are associ-
   ated with problems such as decreased lung function, develop-
   ment of chronic bronchitis, and premature death. Short-term
   exposures to particle pollution (hours or  days) are associated
   with a range of effects, including decreased lung function.
    increased respiratory symptoms, cardiac arrythmias (heartbeat
    irregularities), heart attacks, hospital admissions or emergency
    room visits for heart or lung disease, and premature death.
    Sensitive groups at greatest risk include people with heart or
    lung disease, older adults, and children.

    Environmental Effects
    Fine particles are the major source of haze that reduces
    visibility in many parts of the United States, including our
    national parks. PM affects vegetation and ecosystems by
    settling on soil and water, upsetting delicate nutrient and
    chemical balances.  PM also causes soiling and erosion damage
    to structures, including culturally  important objects such as
    monuments and statues.

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                                   Particle Pollution  Is..
Seasonal
Fine particles often have a seasonal pattern. PM2 5
values in the eastern half of the United States are
typically higher in the third calendar quarter
(July-September) when sulfates are more readily
formed from sulfur dioxide (SO2)  emissions from
power plants in that region. Fine particle concen-
trations tend to be higher in the fourth calendar
quarter in many areas of the West, in part because
fine particle nitrates are more readily formed in
cooler weather, and wood stove and fireplace use
produces more carbon.

The time of year also influences daily fine particle
patterns. Unlike daily ozone levels, which are
usually elevated in the summer, daily PM2 5 values
at some locations can be high at any time of the
year. Figure 4 shows 2003 PM2 5 levels for Fresno
                                 and Baltimore. The colors in the background of
                                 these charts correspond to the colors of the Air
                                 Quality Index (AQI), EPA's tool for informing
                                 the public about air pollution levels in their
                                 communities. As the Fresno graphic illustrates,
                                 fine particles can be elevated in  the fall and
                                 winter in some areas, while ozone is elevated
                                 only in the summer. Contrast the Fresno graphic
                                 with the Baltimore graphic, which shows PM
                                 elevated year-round. Note: Elevated levels on
                                 the AQI do not indicate that an area is violating
                                 EPA's national air quality standards for any
                                 particular pollutant. The AQI is designed to
                                 help people reduce their individual exposure
                                 to pollution.
            Figure 3. Seasonal averages of PM2.5 concentration by region, 1999-2003.
  25


|2°
Jr 15
(0

5
°-  5

   0
 Southern
 California
  25


I20

 | 15
 (0


 °-  5

   0
 Northwest
                                   25

                                   20
  25


-E2°

| 15
fD

>

°-  5

   0
Southwest
 o
 Upper
Midwest
                                                                      25
                                                               25
                                                             01
                                                             rf15
                                                             (0
                                                              ^,10

                                                             °- 5
                                                             Southeast
^ 5

  0
 Industrial
 Midwest
                                             25

                                           -E20

                                           | 15
                                           fD
                                                                                   Northeast

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Air Quality Index (AQI) - Particulate Matter
The AQI is an index for reporting daily air
quality. It tells how clean or polluted the
air is and what associated health effects
might be a concern. The AQI focuses on
health effects people may experience
within a few hours or days after
breathing polluted air. EPA calculates the
AQI for five major pollutants regulated
by the Clean Air Act: particulate matter.
ozone, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide.
and nitrogen dioxide. The AQI values for
particulate matter are shown here.
PM2.5
AQI (ug/m3)
0-50 00-154
'
51-100 15.5-40.4

101-150 40.5-65.4
1 151-200 65.5-150.4

^^^^^^^^^^^^•^^^^^^^^H
I 201-300 150.5-250.4


PM10
(ug/m3)
0-54

55-154

155-254
255-354

^^^^^^^^^H
355-424



Air Quality Descriptor
Good
^^^^H ^^^^^^1
Moderate

Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Unhealthy


Very unhealthy


                     Figure 4. Daily PM2 5 and ozone AQI values, 2003.

                                      Fresno, CA
                                                                      Very Unhealthy


                                                                      Unhealthy


                                                                      Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups


                                                                      Moderate


                                                                      Good
               JAN  FEE  MAR  APR MAY  JUN  JUL  AUG  SEP  OCT  NOV  DEC  JAN
                                        Date

                                    Baltimore, MD
                                                                      Very Unhealthy


                                                                      Unhealthy


                                                                      Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups


                                                                      Moderate


                                                                      Good
                JAN  FEE  MAR APR  MAY  JUN  JUL  AUG  SEP  OCT  NOV  DEC  JAN
                                        Date
0
0 ° Ozone •
• • ™2.5
Note: These graphs represent data from Federal Reference Method monitors.  They do not show data from all
monitors that report the Air Quality Index.

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 Sources and Transport of Particle Pollution
 Sources
 Particulate matter includes both "primary" PM, which is
 directly emitted into the air, and "secondary" PM, which forms
 indirectly from fuel combustion and other sources. Generally,
 coarse PM is made up of primary particles, while
 fine PM is dominated by secondary particles.
 Primary PM consists of carbon (soot) — emitted from cars,
 trucks, heavy equipment, forest fires, and burning waste —
 and crustal material from unpaved roads, stone crushing,
 construction sites, and metallurgical operations.
 Secondary PM forms in the atmosphere from gases. Some of
 these reactions require sunlight and/or water vapor.
 Secondary PM includes
  •  Sulfates formed from sulfur dioxide emissions from
     power plants and industrial facilities
  •  Nitrates formed from nitrogen oxide emissions from cars,
     trucks, and power plants
  •  Carbon formed from reactive organic gas emissions from
     cars, trucks, industrial facilities, forest fires, and biogenic
     sources such as trees.

 Note: For more information about  the apportionment of
fine particles to their sources, go to wuw.epa.gov/oar/
 oaqps/pm2 5 / docs.html
Transport
In the atmosphere, coarse and fine particles behave in
different ways.  Larger coarse particles may settle out from the
air more rapidly than fine particles and usually will be found
relatively close to their emission sources.  Fine particles,
however, can be transported long distances by wind and
weather and can be found in the air thousands of miles from
where they were formed.
           Automobiles, Power Generation, and Other
            Sources Contribute to Fine Particle Levels
      Cars, trucks, heavy equipment,
      wild fires, waste burning,
      and biogenics

                    /            \
                                        Suspended soil
                                        and metallurgical
                                        operations
      Cars, trucks, and
      power generation
                                      Power
                                      generation
Note: Ammonia from sources such as fertilizer and animal feed
operations contributes to the formation ofsulfates and nitrates
that exist in the atmosphere as ammonium sulfate and
ammonium nitrate.
 Visibility
 One of the most obvious effects of air pollution occurs both
 in urban areas and at the country's best-known and most-
 treasured national parks and wilderness areas. Visibility
 impairment occurs when fine particles scatter and absorb light,
 creating a haze that limits the distance we can see and that
 degrades the color, clarity, and contrast of the view. The
 particles that cause haze are the same particles that contribute
 to serious health problems and environmental damage.
 Visibility impairment—and the concentration of particles that
 cause it—generally is worse  in the eastern United States than it
 is in the West. Humidity can significantly increase visibility
 impairment by causing some particles to become more efficient
 at scattering light. Average  relative humidity levels are higher
 in the East (70% to 80%) than in the West (50% to 60%).
 In the East, reduced visibility is mainly attributable to sulfates,
 organic carbon, and nitrates. Poor summertime visibility is
 primarily the result of high sulfate concentrations, combined
 with  high humidity. Sulfates, which dominate the composition
 of these visibility-impairing particles, have been found to
 contribute even more to light  extinction than they do to fine
 particle concentrations. In the West, organic carbon, nitrates,
 and crustal  material make up a larger portion of total particle
 concentrations than they do in the East.
 Through its 1999 regional haze rule, EPA, states, and other
 federal agencies are working to improve visibility in 156
 national parks and wilderness  areas such as the Grand Canyon,
 Yosemite, the Great Smokies, and Shenandoah. Five multistate
 regional planning organizations are working together to
 develop and implement regional haze reduction plans.  For
 more information, see www.epa.gov/airtrends/vis.html.
 Yosemite National Park (California) under bad and good
 visibility conditions. Visual range is  iii kilometers (km) in
 the left photo and greater than 208 km in the right photo.
 Shenandoah National Park (Virginia) under bad and
 good visibility conditions. Visual range is 25 km in the left
 photo and i80 km in the right photo.

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PM Supersites
                                                                      Ultrafine Particles (<0.1
                            Los Angeles, CA
                 (University of Southern California Site)
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
 03  03  03   03  03
          Oct Nov Dec Jan
           02  02   02  03
                                                                                                 • Nitrates
                                                                                                 D Sulfates
                                                                                                 D Metals
                                                                                                 D Organic Carbon
                                                                                                 • Elemental Carbon
        Note: "Crustal materials" include windblown soil, industrial process emissions, sea salt, and jlyash from combustion.
 After issuing the nation's first PM2.5 standards in 1997, EPA
 developed the PM Supersites project, a monitoring research
 program, to address a number of scientific issues associated
 with particulate matter. Program goals focus on obtaining
 atmospheric measurements to
      •  Characterize PM, its constituents, atmospheric trans-
        port, and source categories that affect PM in any
        region
      •  Compare and evaluate different PM measurement
        methods (e.g., emerging sampling  methods, routine
        monitoring techniques)
      •  Support exposure and health effects research
        concerning the relationships between sources, ambient
        PM concentrations, and human exposures and health
        effects and the biological basis for  these relationships.
                                 EPA selected eight locations for Supersites, including Los
                                 Angeles. Atmospheric measurements taken at the Los
                                 Angeles site between October 2002 and September 2003
                                 show that ultrafine particles make up a small portion of the
                                 PM concentration compared to inhalable coarse and fine
                                 particles. However, the number of ultrafine particles is signifi-
                                 cantly larger than the number of coarse or fine particles. EPA
                                 is studying this from a health perspective.
                                 The Los Angeles data also show that coarse, fine, and ultra-
                                 fine PM have different compositions.  For each type of PM,
                                 there is a difference in the relative amounts of nitrates,
                                 sulfates, crustal materials, and carbon. Carbon, shown here
                                 as organic and elemental carbon, makes up a large fraction
                                 of ultrafine and fine PM in Los Angeles.
                                 For more information, see
                                 www.epa.gov/ttn/amtic/supersites.html and
                                 www.epa.gov/ttn/amtic/laprog.html

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                                 Particle Pollution Is..
Both Local and  Regional
Both local and regional sources contribute to
particle pollution.  Figure 5 shows how much of
the PM2 5 mass can be attributed to local versus
regional sources for 13 selected urban areas
(arranged west to east). In each of these urban
areas, monitoring sites were paired with nearby
rural sites. When the average rural concentration
is subtracted from the measured urban concen-
tration, the estimated local and regional contri-
butions become apparent.

In the  East, regional  pollution contributes more
than half of total PM25 concentrations. Rural
background PM2.5 concentrations are high in the
East and are somewhat uniform over large
geographic areas. These regional concentrations
come from emission sources such as power
plants,  natural sources, and urban pollution and
can be transported hundreds of miles.
For the cities shown in Figure 5, local contribu-
tions range from 2 to 20 micrograms per cubic
meter (ug/m3), with the  West generally showing
larger local contributions than the East. In the
East, local contributions are generally greatest in
cities with the highest annual average PM2 5
concentrations.

Figure 6 shows the local  and regional contri-
butions for the major chemical components that
make up urban PM25: sulfates, carbon, and
nitrates. In the eastern United States, the local
contribution of sulfates is generally small.  Most
sulfates in the  East are converted from regional
SO2 emissions and are transported long distances
from their sources.

Carbon has the largest local contribution of the
three major chemical components. These local
emissions come from a combination of mobile
and stationary combustion  sources. The regional
                    Figure 5. Local and regional contribution to urban PM2
                                    Measured PM2 5 Concentration
                         Fresno
                        Missoula
                    Salt Lake City
                           Tulsa
                        St.  Louis
                     Birmingham
                     Indianapolis
                         Atlanta
                       Cleveland
                       Charlotte
                       Richmond
                       Baltimore
                    New York City



WEST
| EAST




1







Contribution
D Local
I
                               0     5    10    15     20    25    30
                               Annual Average PM2 5 Concentration, [ig/m3
                     Note: Urban and nearby rural PM2S
                     concentrations suggest substantial
                     regional contributions to fine particles
                     in the East. The measured PM2 s
                     concentration is  not necessarily the
                     maximum for each urban area.
                     Regional concentrations are derived
                    from the rural IMPROVE monitoring
                     network,
                     http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/improve.

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contribution, which varies from 30% to 60% of
the total carbon at urban locations, is from rural
emission sources such as vegetation and wildfires,
as well as region-wide sources such as cars and
trucks.
          Nitrates represent only about 10% to 30% of
          annual average PM2.5, and urban concentrations
          are higher than the nearby regional levels. This is
          likely due to local nitrogen sources such as cars,
          trucks, and small stationary combustion sources.
          Figure 6. Local and regional contribution of major PM2.s chemical components.
                         Sulfates
                                      Carbon
Fresno
Missoula
Salt Lake City
Tulsa
St. Louis
Birmingham
Indianapolis
Atlanta
Cleveland
Charlotte
Richmond
Baltimore
New York City
zn
in
E] WEST
| EAST


II

1
II
n Regional
II Contribution
D Local
1
                2     4     6     8    10
               Annual Average Concentration
                     of Sulfates, [ig/m3
12
                Fresno
              Missoula
           Salt Lake City
                 Tulsa
               St. Louis
           Birmingham
           Indianapolis
               Atlanta
             Cleveland
              Charlotte
             Richmond
             Baltimore
          New York City
                                                     Nitrates
                                                                                               WEST
                                                                                                EAST
                                                                          1       1
                                                                                           L~] Regional
                                                                                             Contribution
                                                                                           D Local
                                                                                             Contribution
2     46     8    10    12
Annual Average Concentration
      of Carbon, [ig/m3
Fresno
Missoula
Salt Lake City
Tulsa
St. Louis
Birmingham
Indianapolis
Atlanta
Cleveland
Charlotte
Richmond
Baltimore
New York City

P 	
1 | WEST
	 LJ EAST
n
^
i
^
i i
~n
1 1 n Regional
1 1 Contribution
1 • Local
— 1 	 1 Contribution
IE!
                                           2    4     6     8    10    12
                                           Annual Average Concentration
                                                 of Nitrates, [ig/m3
                                  Note: Regional concentrations are
                                  derived from the rural IMPROVE
                                  monitoring network,
                                  http://vista.dra.colostate.edu/improve.

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    Particle  Pollution in  2003
          Nationally, fine particle concentrations in 2003
          were the lowest since nationwide PM2 5 moni-
          toring began in 1999. Compared with 2002, the
          biggest decreases occurred in the Industrial
          Midwest and parts of California — areas with
          relatively high PM25 concentrations. PM10 concen-
          trations were slightly higher in 2003 than the
          previous year, but they are still the second lowest
          since nationwide PM10 monitoring began in 1988.

          Although average concentrations have declined
          nationally, many areas still exceed the level of
          the PM standards. In 2003, monitors in 97
          counties (home to 62 million people) showed
concentrations greater than the PM10 or PM2 5
national air quality standards. Thirty-seven
counties (21 million people) measured concen-
trations in excess of the national PM10 standards,
and 72 counties (53 million people) exceeded the
national PM2 5 standards. These numbers do not
include other areas outside of these counties that
might contribute to levels above the standards.

Figure 7 shows the range of PM10 concentrations
across the country in 2003. The highest concen-
trations were recorded in Inyo and Mono coun-
ties, California; El Paso County, Texas; and Dona
Ana County, New Mexico. Figure 8 shows the
                         Figure 7.  PM1O concentrations, 2003 (second maximum 24-hour).
                                                                                Concentration range (ng/m3)
                                                                                 D s54
                                                                                 D 55-154
                                                                                 • 155-354
                                                                                 • >354
                                                                               Note: Circle size corresponds
                                                                               to PM2S concentration range.
                              Figure 8. PM2.s concentrations, 2003 (annual average).
                                                                                 Concentration range (ng/m3)
                                                                                 D s10
                                                                                 D 10.1 - 15
                                                                                 D 15.1 -20
                                                                                 • >20
10

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range of 2003 PM2 5 annual averages across the
country. The highest annual averages occurred
in southern California and Pittsburgh. High
levels are also seen in many urban areas in the
Southeast, Northeast, and Industrial Midwest.  See
www.epa.gov/airtrends/pm.html for county-level
maps of PM.

PM2 5 concentrations can reach unhealthy levels
even in areas that meet the annual standard. In
2003, there were 277 counties with at least
                                      1 unhealthy day based on PM2 5 AQI values, as
                                      shown in Figure 9. Nearly two-thirds of those
                                      counties had annual averages below the level of
                                      the standard. Figure 10 shows how several major
                                      metropolitan areas fared in 2003 relative to
                                      previous years. Most metropolitan areas had fewer
                                      unhealthy PM2 5 days in 2003 compared to the
                                      average from the previous 3 years, which reflects
                                      the improvements observed in 2003.
                    Figure 9. PM2.5 AQI days above 100 (>40.5 ug/m3) in 2003.
   Note: This map represents data from Federal Reference Method monitors. It does not show data from all monitors that
   report the Air Quality Index. As such, it may not provide a complete pkture of days above the AQI in some cities.

    Figure 10. Number of days with PM2 5 AQI levels above 100, 2003 versus average 2000-2002.



                 ™      '*                    s                           if
                                                Mi™'is                    ^
                                                         ^ 6             New York

                                                       r8 4   Cincir
                                                      ^tzi
                                                      St. Louis 2,

                                                           L
                                                          Birm
   l-^-i       Salt Lake
Sacramento              Denver
                                                         Washington, DC
                                            4   Cincinnati

                                         St. Louis ,,      ^=L
                                                    ,, Charlotte
                                                    11 9
                                                            ;Tiingham
                Number of days (2000-2002, average)

                Number of days (2003)
                                                                                                           11

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           PM10 - PM,
           Particulate matter varies greatly in size. "Coarse"
           particles can be as large as 40 micrometers (jam)
           in diameter or even larger. EPA's National
           Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for
           participate matter, however, have  focused  on
           particles that are 10 um in diameter or smaller.
           These particles are the  most likely to be inhaled
           and can penetrate into  the lower respiratory tract.
           EPA has had air quality standards for particles
           10 (am and smaller since 1987.  In 1997, EPA also
           established an NAAQS for fine particles — those
           particles 2.5  um in diameter or smaller. EPA is
           now in the process of reviewing the PM
           NAAQS.
                           As shown in Figure 11, the size distribution of
                           particles smaller than  10 um but larger than
                           2.5 um varies by geographic location. Levels of
                           PM10_2 5 are generally higher in the West, particu-
                           larly the Southwest.  PM10_2.5 typically comprises
                           more than half of the PM10 mass in the West.
                           Data also suggest that concentrations of particles
                           between 2.5 and 10 um in size are lower in the
                           mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Overall, while
                           directly  emitted PM2 5 and its precursors can
                           come from both local and regional sources, the
                           larger particles that are part of  PM10 tend to
                           come from local sources.
                       Figure 11. Percent of 2003 annual average concentration of particles smaller
                                      than 10 um but larger than 2.5 um, by region.
                                            North- Southern South-  Upper  Ind. Mid-  North- South-
                                             west   CA   west  Midwest  west   east   east
                                                     D PM
                                                          10-2.5
                              n PM
                                                                       2.5
             National Standards for Particulate Matter
              EPA first established National Ambient Air Quality Standards
              (NAAQS) for total suspended particulate (TSP) in 1971.
              When the standards were revised in 1987, TSP was replaced
              by PM10.  In 1997, EPA revised the primary (health) and
              secondary (welfare) PM NAAQS by adding standards for
              PM2 5. EPA added PM2 5 standards because fine particles
              are more closely associated with serious health effects.
              The NAAQS for PM10 and PM2.5 include both short-term
              (24-hour) and long-term (annual) standards:
                NAAQS
                                     PM
                PM.,
                Short-term
              (24-hour average)
                Long-term
              (annual average)
65 ug/m3

15 ug/m3
150 ug/m3

50 ug/m3
Compliance
Each PM standard carries a separate threshold for
compliance:
  •  For the long-term standards for both PM2 5 and PM10,
    compliance is determined based on the average of three
    consecutive annual average values.
  •  Compliance with the short-term PM2 5 standard is
    determined by the 3-year average of the annual 98th
    percentile of 24-hour concentrations.
  •  The short-term standard for PM10 is not to be exceeded
    more than once per year, averaged over 3 years.
EPA reviews the NAAQS on a regular basis. The standards
for PM-io and PM2 5 are currently under review, to be
completed in 2006.

Note: fjg/tn3  = micrograms per cubic meter.
12

-------
Looking  at  Trends
    PM10 National and Regional Trends
    Nationally, PM10 concentrations have decreased
    31% since  1988, as shown in Figure  12.
    Regionally, PM10 decreased most in  areas with
    historically higher concentrations — the
    Northwest (39%), the Southwest (33%), and
    southern California (35%).
    Programs aimed at reducing direct emissions of
    particles have played an important role in
    reducing PM10 concentrations, particularly in
western areas. Some examples of PM10 controls
include paving unpaved roads, replacing wood
and coal with cleaner-burning fuels like natural
gas, and using best management practices for
agricultural sources of resuspended soil.
Additionally, EPA's Acid Rain Program has
substantially reduced SO2 emissions from power
plants since 1995 in the eastern United States,
contributing to lower PM concentrations. Direct
emissions of PM10 have decreased approximately
25% nationally since 1988.
      Figure 12. Regional and national trends in annual average PM10 concentrations and emissions,
                                             1988-2003.

                               Annual Average PM10 Concentrations, 1988-2003
                           Northwest
                            |,39%
                    Southern
                    California
                     |.35%
                                                Upper
                                               Midwest
                                               J.16%
                                   Southwest
                                    |,33%
                                           26.5
                      Northeast
                                                              Industrial
                                                              Midwest
                                                                        28.8
                                                               |,29%
                                                                     24.3
                       4 29%
                                                                                  20.5
                                                           Southeast
                                                            4-25%
                                                                   24.6
                      National Standard:
                      Regional Trend
                National PM10 Air Quality
          89 90  91 92 93 94 95  96 97 98  99 00 01 02 03
                 1988-2003:  31 % decrease
                 1999-2003:  7% decrease
           National Direct PM10 Emissions

          D Transportation    D Industrial Processes
                   • Fuel Combustion
                                                                                 n 1996, EPA refined its
                                                                                 methods for estimating
                                                                                 emissions.
       89 90 91 92 93 94  95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
      1988-2003:  approximately 25% decrease
      1999-2003:  3% decrease
                                                                                                         13

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          PM25 National and Regional Trends
          PM25 concentrations have decreased 10% nation-
          ally since 1999. Generally, PM25 has decreased
          the most in regions with the highest concentra-
          tions — the Southeast (20%), southern California
          (16%), and the Industrial Midwest (9%), as shown
          in Figure 13. With the exception of the
          Northeast, the remaining regions posted modest
          declines in PM25 from 1999 to 2003.
          A variety of local and national programs have
          resulted in a 5% decrease in estimated direct
          emissions of PM25 over the past 5 years. In addi-
          tion, programs that reduce the gaseous emissions
          that can form particles in the atmosphere  have
          yielded additional reductions. National programs
that affect regional emissions — including
EPA's Acid Rain Program — have contributed
to lower sulfate concentrations and, conse-
quently, to lower PM2 5 concentrations, partic-
ularly in the Industrial Midwest and Southeast.
National  ozone-reduction programs designed
to reduce emissions of volatile organic
compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides
(NOX) also have helped reduce carbon and
nitrates, both of which are components of
PM2.5. Nationally, SO2, NOX, and VOC emis-
sions decreased 9%, 9%, and 12%, respectively,
from 1999 to 2003. In eastern states affected
by the Acid Rain Program, sulfates decreased
7% over the same period.
14

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Figure 13. Regional and national trends in annual average PM2.s concentrations and emissions
                              related to PM2 5 formation, 1999-2003.


                             Annual Average PM2 5 Concentrations, 1999-2003
Upper
Midwest
415% 11~4~~ ~~I0.7
46%
Southern
California
2tL° _ 16.9 Snnthuwoct

116% — — — —
8.7 8.1
4?%
Industrial
Midwest
15.6 ^.|
49%
Southeast
15J ' ~.6
420%
Northeast
13.2 13..
                   National Standard: 15
                   Regional Trend
                                                  National PM2.s and Precursor Emissions
     30
20
  c
  01
  u
  c
  o
  u
          National PM2.5
           Air Quality
         780 Monitoring Sites
              '90% of sites have
              concentrations
              below this line
     10
                   14 Average
      \
         10% of sites have
         concentrations
         below this line
       99   00   01   02   03\

           . 10% Decrease
                                                                              NOV
                                                                     Only a subset of VOC
                                                                     contributes to PM
                                           0
                                            99   00   01   02    03       99   00   01   02   03

                                             I Fuel Combustion  CD Industrial Processes  D Transportation
        Note: Ammonia is a contributor to PM2 s formation. However, because of uncertainty in ammonia
        emission estimates, its trends are not shown here.
                                                                                                                    15

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          25-Year PM2 5 Trends
          Because EPA's national PM2 5 monitoring
          network is just 5 years old, we use data from
          older PM2 5 monitoring networks to assess
          longer-term trends. Although the earlier
          networks are more limited in geographic scope
          and years of coverage, their data do provide
          historical perspective. The maps in Figure 14
          show how PM2 5 concentrations 25 years ago
          compare with  PM2 5 concentrations today in
          39 major cities. Reductions vary among the 39
          cities. Generally, the largest reductions occurred
          in the areas with the highest concentrations. On
          average, today's levels are about 30% lower than
          they were 25 years ago.

          The following examples, illustrated in Figure 14,
          show how PM2 5 concentrations have improved
          over the  past 25 years in three cities. Figure 14
          also shows PM10 concentrations for comparison
          (where available). PM25 accounts for more than
          half of the PM10 levels in these areas.

            • Los Angeles:  PM2 5 concentrations have
              decreased substantially since 1980. Although
              concentrations  have leveled off in recent
   years, average PM2 5 levels in 2003 were the
   lowest on record. Low-sulfur gasoline use
   and ozone reduction programs designed to
   control NOX and VOC emissions may have
   contributed to the PM2 5 decrease observed
   in the 1990s.
   Washington, DC:  PM2 5 concentrations are
   currently (2003) at their lowest levels. The
   relatively large drop from 1994 to 1995
   corresponds to decreases in sulfates (21%)  and
   organic carbon  (30%). The decrease in
   sulfates is attributable in part to the Acid
   Rain Program, which substantially reduced
   SO2 emissions from power plants during this
   time. The decrease in organic carbon is
   attributable in part to the use of reformulated
   gasoline.
   Chicago: PM2 5 concentrations at this site
   have dropped substantially since the early
   1980s, reaching their lowest levels in 2003.
For additional information on long-term trends,
see www.epa.gov/airtrends/pm.html.
16

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     Figure 14. Comparison of historical PM2.5 and PM1O annual average concentrations, 1979-2003.
        Average Annual PM2 5 Concentrations, 1979-1983
Concentration range (ng/m3)
 D  < 15 [5 Cities]
 D  15.1 -20 [13 Cities]
 D  20.1 -25 [14 Cities]
 •  25.1 -30 [5 Cities]
 •  > 30 [2 Cities]
                               Source: Inhalable Paniculate Network
        Average Annual PM2 5 Concentrations, 2001-2003
Concentration range (ng/m3)
 •  < 15 [24 Cities]
 D  15.1 -20 [13 Cities]
 •  > 20 [2 Cities]
          PM2 5 Annual Average Concentrations
                    Los Angeles, CA
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                                                                                      Washington, DC
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                                                  NAAQS
                                                  Level
    79  81  83  85  87  89  91  93  95  97  99  01  03
                                                                                        Chicago, IL
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                                                  PM25
                                                  NAAQS
                                                  Level
                                                                      79  81  83  85  87  89  91  93  95  97  99  01  03
                           Source: Federal Reference Method Network
     Note: The 1979-1983 data are from the Inhalable Paniculate Network (IPN). The 1984-1999 data are from EPA's Air
     Quality System. The 1999-2003 data are from the Federal Reference Method (FRM) network. The 1993-2003 data for
     Washington, DC, are from the IMPROVE network.
                                                                                                                          17

-------
         Rural Sulfate Trends
         In the eastern half of the United States, sulfates
         account for 25% to 55% of PM25 annually. Power
         plants are the largest contributor to sulfate formation
         in the East, where they were responsible for more than
         75% of sulfur dioxide emissions in 2003.

         In the East, power plants reduced sulfur dioxide emis-
         sions 33% between 1990 and 2003. As Figure 15
         shows, this downward trend matches well with the
         trend in concentrations of rural sulfates (a 29%
         decrease). Because sulfates have such a large regional
         component (shown in Figure 6), these trends in sulfate
         concentration can also be used to help explain urban
         PM2 5 trends.

         The reductions  shown in Figure 15 are primarily
         attributable to implementation of EPA's Acid Rain
         program. Phase  I compliance began in 1995, affecting
         large coal-burning power plants in 21 eastern and
         midwestern states.  Phase II implementation began in
         2000, tightening emission limits on the Phase  I power
         plants and setting restrictions on smaller coal-, oil-, and
         gas-fired plants.  As the figure shows, sulfur dioxide
         emissions and sulfate concentrations decreased
         following implementation of both phases. A  slight
         increase in SO2  emissions in the latter half of the 1990s
         was likely due to power plants not affected until Phase
         II began in 2000. The small increase from 2002 to 2003
         resulted from increased electricity production by coal-
         fired and oil-fired  units.  These units emit much more
         SO2 than natural gas units that generated less power in
         2003. This annual variation does not affect the total
         limit on SO2 emissions under the Acid Rain Program.
         (For more information, see www.epa.gov/air/oap.html
         and www.epa.gov/acidrainreport/.)

      Figure 15. Eastern annual trends of sulfur dioxide
  emissions from power plants and sulfate concentrations.
        15,000
    •2,2 10,000
         5,000
            0
                  i Sulfate Concentrations
                   SO2 Emissions from Power Plants
             90 91 92  93 94 95 96 97 98 99  00 01 02 03
                                                    5 I
                                                     Cm
                                                    3 8 E
"• 0)
ll
  l/l
0
                  Episodic Events
                  PM concentrations can increase dramatically due to
                  human-caused or natural episodic events, such as biomass
                  burning, meteorological inversions, dust storms, and
                  volcanic and seismic activity. These events are rare,
                  affecting less than 1 % of reported PM2 5 concentrations
                  between 2001 and 2003. Episodic  events can affect
                  people's short-term PM exposure, briefly pushing hourly
                  and daily PM levels into the unhealthy ranges of the Air
                  Quality Index.  However, these events rarely have a signifi-
                  cant effect on annual or longer averages of PM.
                  Biomass burning can be either a human-initiated event, as
                  in the burning of vegetation for land clearing or land use
                  change, or a natural event, as in the wild fires resulting
                  from lightning.  Biomass burning can significantly increase
                  PM levels in  local areas and sometimes more distant areas.
                  Air currents can carry smoke from forest fires half-way
                  around the earth.  Organic carbon compounds usually
                  dominate the PM2 5 concentration  profile during these
                  fire episodes.
                  Topography and meteorological conditions make some
                  areas more susceptible to episodic  events. In mountain
                  regions, temperature inversions sometimes trap polluted
                  air during the winter.  Wintertime  PM2 5 and PM10 can
                  be more than three times higher than other seasonal
                  averages.  Woodstove smoke, containing large amounts
                                                                      Satellite photo of forest fires, southern
                                                                      California, October 27, 2003.
       Note: Sulfate concentrations are from EPA's CASTNET
       monitoring network, unvw.epa.gov/castnet
18

-------
of organic carbon, is often identified as a significant source
of the elevated wintertime PM concentrations.
Arid desert conditions in the southwestern United States
make this region more vulnerable to wind-blown dust than
other regions of the nation. Most dust events are caused
by passage  of weather fronts and troughs and downmixing
of upper-level winds. Cyclone development and thunder-
storms result in the most dramatic dust clouds with the
lowest visibilities.  Dust-related events are typically domi-
nated by large, coarse particles, but fine particle levels also
increase.
The effects  of dust storms can also be seen globally.  Giant
sand storms originating in the Sahara Desert can blow
across the Atlantic to South America, the Caribbean, and
the southeastern United States, transporting several
hundred million tons of dust each year.  Movement of dust
from Africa has increased since 1970 because of an increase
of dry weather in the Saharan region. Satellite pictures
also confirm that sandstorms originating in China's Gobi
Desert occasionally cross the Pacific to the United States.
Transport from Africa typically occurs in the summer, and
transport from Asia typically occurs in the spring.
Temperature inversion. Salt Lake Valley, Utah,
January 13, 2004.
                                                          Dust storm. Phoenix, Arizona, August 19,1999.
Satellite photo of giant cloud of dust originating
in North Africa moving westward.
                                                                                                                         19

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       Explaining  the  Trends

          PM25 Trends in Three Regions
          (1999-2003)
          To better understand ambient air quality, it is
          helpful to examine trends and the factors that
          contribute to those trends in specific regions. This
          section explores, in detail, trends in three regions in
          the eastern half of the country from 1999 to 2003.
          Figure 16 shows the 5-year regional trends in
          urban PM2 5 and its major chemical constituents.
          In the Southeast, PM2 5 declined sharply from
          1999 to 2002, with little  further change to 2003.
          Overall, the  Southeast shows a 20% decrease in
          PM2.5 from 1999 to 2003. In the Industrial
          Midwest, there is a gradual downward PM2 5
          trend from 1999 to 2001 and a more pronounced
          decrease from 2001 to 2003. Overall, PM2.5
          decreased 9% over the 5-year period. In the
          Northeast, PM25 increased slightly from 1999
          through 2001, then decreased through 2003,
          for an overall increase of 1%.  Trends in PM
          components indicate that reductions in sulfates
          appear to be responsible for approximately one-
          third of the reductions in PM2 5 in the Industrial
          Midwest and the Southeast. Trends in sulfate
                                          concentrations in the eastern United States match
                                          well with trends in SO2 emissions from power
                                          plants over the past 14 years (based on analyses
                                          discussed in the previous section; see Figure 15).

                                          Figure 17 shows that, on smaller sub regional
                                          scales, the relationship between sulfate concentra-
                                          tions and power plant SO2 emissions can vary
                                          among the subregions. Although trends in sulfate
                                          concentrations and SO2 emissions match best
                                          overall in the  Southeast (SO2 emissions down
                                          15%, sulfate concentrations down 13%, from
                                          1999 to 2003), the year-to-year comparisons for
                                          the Industrial Midwest and the Northeast do not
                                          show such a close match. Sulfur dioxide emis-
                                          sions in  the Industrial Midwest declined 19%,
                                          while sulfate concentrations declined 5%. In the
                                          Northeast, sulfur dioxide emissions were down
                                          6%, and sulfate concentrations were up 3%.

                                          These subregional differences may be caused by
                                          several factors, the most important of which is
                                          likely to be transport. As Figure 17  shows, the
                                          ratio  of sulfate concentrations to SO2 emissions is
                                          higher in the  Northeast than in the other
                                          regions. This  suggests that transport of emissions
20
                         Figure 16. Trends in PM2.5 and its chemical constituents, 1999-2003.
                         Southeast
               16-

               14-

               12-
            m
             01 10
             o
             u
                4-
                2-
                0-
PM,
    115 PM2 5 Monitoring Sites
                 -20%
                  Sulfate
                                    -13%
PM25 Remainder
 (mostly carbon)      -32%
                  Crustal
                  I .    *     *    !   . t
                  Nitrate
                                   +18%
                1999   2000  2001  2002  2003
                           Year
                                                    Industrial Midwest
   16-

   14-

   12-
"E
 01 10
 c
 o
 o
 u
                                              4-
                                              2-
                                              0-
PM,
    119 PM2 5 Monitoring Sites
                                                -9%
      PM25 Remainder    -17%
       (mostly carbon)
                                                Nitrate
                                                                  -4%
                                                Crustal
                                                                                     Northeast
                                                                           16-
                                                         14-
                                                         12-
                                                      m
                                                       01 10
                                                       c
                                                       o
                                                      ••P  8-
                                                                            6-
                         o
                         u
                                                                            2-
                                                                            o-
56 PM2 5 Monitoring Sites
                                                                              Sulfate
                                                                                                +3%
                              PM25 Remainder
                               (mostly carbon)
                                                                              Nitrate
                                                                                                +2%
                                                                              Crustal
                            1999  2000  2001  2002  2003
                                       Year
                                  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003
                                             Year
          Note: Sulfate and nitrate concentrations from the CASTNET monitoring network were adjusted to represent mass in
          PM2 5 and include ammonium as well as water. Trends for crustal were not available so constant values based on
          2002—2003 data for each region were used. See www.epa.gov/airtrends/pm.htmlforfurther details.

-------
     Figure 17. Meteorologically adjusted sulfate
             concentrations, 1999-2003.
                                          Northeast
                                         Southeast
m

14-
C
o
IS 3-
                                                  -7 =
    90  91   92  93  94
                     95  96  97
                         Year
                                      00  01  02  03
                                     Industrial Midwest
     90  91  92  93  94  95  96  97
                         Year
                                      00   01  02  03
   ] SO2 emissions from power plants   -»- CASTNET sulfate concentrations
          -A- Meteorologically adjusted sulfate concentrations

       from other regions contributes to sulfate forma-
       tion in the Northeast.  Other factors that may
       contribute to the subregional differences in these
       trends include variations in meteorological condi-
       tions that are important to sulfate formation and
       transport, contributions to the Northeast from
       Canada, and subregional differences in the contri-
       butions of sources other than power plants.
Effect of Meteorology
Weather plays a role both in the atmospheric
formation of PM2 5 and in the quantity of emis-
sions that contribute to this pollution.  For this
report, we examined the effect of meteorology
on sulfates, which are a major component of
PM2 5, especially in the eastern half of the United
States. To assess the effect of meteorology on
annual average sulfate concentrations, EPA has
conducted a preliminary analysis, adjusting sulfate
levels  based on weather conditions. (The blue
line in Figure 17  represents measured sulfate
concentrations; the  red line represents the meteo-
rologically adjusted sulfate concentrations.) One
of the main parameters driving these preliminary
adjustments is temperature. In the  eastern half of
the United States, 1999, 2001, and 2003 were
near-normal  meteorological years, so only
minimal adjustments to sulfate concentrations
were needed. In 2000, however, a cool summer
may well have caused sulfur dioxide emissions to
be lower than average, resulting in lower amounts
of sulfates in  the air. Adjusting for weather in
2000 raised estimated sulfate levels in all three
regions  to the level expected during a year with
average  weather conditions.

Conversely, the summer of 2002 in the eastern
United  States was one of the hottest in recent
years. Sulfur dioxide emissions were higher that
year, likely  due (at least in part) to  increased
demand for electricity for cooling. The meteoro-
logical adjustment for 2002 reduces the amount
of sulfates in  all three regions to levels  expected
during a normal meteorological year.

In two of the three regions, the variations in
power plant SO2 emissions (illustrated by the
yellow bars in Figure 17) generally correlate more
closely with the meteorologically adjusted sulfates
(the red line) than the unadjusted sulfates (the
blue line). In the  Industrial Midwest, however,
adjusting for weather causes the  sulfate trend to
move farther away from the sulfur dioxide emis-
sion trend in 2002-2003. More refined meteoro-
logical analyses and emission inventories  are
necessary to fully understand these results.
                                                                                                                 21

-------
          The PM25 Remainder
          Figure 16 (page 20) also shows the estimated
          trend in the "PM2.5 remainder" for each of the
          three regions. The remainder is estimated by
          subtracting all known PM2 5 components from
          the total PM2 5 mass. Some uncertainties exist in
          our interpretations of these data; however, the
          PM2 5 remainder appears to consist mostly of
          carbon-containing particles. Some small contri-
          butions to the PM2 5 remainder trend shown in
          Figure 16 include

            • Trends in crustal material
              Local contributions for nitrates and sulfates
              (see the discussion on pages 8 and 9)
              Any changes in data quality or the operation
              of EPA's PM2.5 Federal Reference Method
              monitoring network during its first few years
              of operation.
          Despite the uncertainties, the reductions in the
          PM2 5 remainder for the Industrial Midwest and
          Southeast appear to be due, in large part, to
          reductions in emissions that contribute to the
          formation of carbon-containing particles. The
          relative  importance of various  man-made emis-
          sions sources to these trends is uncertain and may
          vary by region and urban area. Important sources
          of carbon-containing particles  in urban air
          include direct emissions from sources such as
          motor vehicles, fuel combustion, and fires and
          atmospheric transformation  of certain organic
          gases, including both regional biogenic emissions
          and some components of man-made VOCs.

          It is interesting to note that, in Figure 18, the
          decrease in the estimated PM2 5 remainder corre-
          sponds either to reductions in  directly emitted
          fine particles or reductions in man-made VOC
          emissions. The Northeast region, however, shows
          virtually no net change in PM2 5 or in any of its
          estimated components. Yet both direct PM2 5
          emissions and VOC emissions decreased from
          1999 to 2003. EPA is continuing to conduct
          research and analysis to better  identify and
          quantify key direct emission sources in addition
          to the relative contribution of man-made VOC
          emissions to atmospheric formation of carbon-
          containing particles.
      Figure 18. PM25 emission trends.
                  SO2 Emissions
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                   NOV Emissions
        96   97    98   99   00   01   02   03
                Direct PM2 5 Emissions
        96   97   98    99   00   01   02   03

                   VOC Emissions
        96   97    98   99   00
                       Year
        • Industrial Midwest  * Northeast
01   02   03

    Southeast
      Percent Change in Emissions from
                1999 to 2003
22

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For more details on the PM2 5 remainder, see
ww.epa.gov/airtrends/pm.html. For information
on EPA's monitoring networks, see
www.epa.gov/ttn/amtic/.

Control Programs
Many programs have  been put in place to reduce
levels of particulate matter. Table  1 lists the major
emission control programs that have contributed
to reductions in PM since 1995 and will
continue to reduce PM in the future. These
programs control direct PM  emissions and/or the
emissions that contribute to  PM formation, such
as SO2, NOX, and VOCs. The control programs
consist of a series of regulations that reduce emis-
sions from many stationary and mobile source
sectors. For example, beginning in 2008, states
will be required to attain the National Ambient
Air Quality Standards for fine particles. EPA's
proposed Clean Air Interstate Rule (proposed
in December 2003) will help states meet those
requirements by reducing SO2 and NOX emis-
sions  in the eastern United States thus reducing
particle pollution transported across state bound-
aries. Another regulation, the Best Available
Retrofit Technology (BART) program, will
require the older, existing power plants to control
PM emissions with retrofit pollution control
equipment. Also, national mobile source rules are
in place to strengthen the emission requirements
for virtually all  types of mobile sources. Many
localities also have pollution reduction require-
ments for  diesel engine retrofits as well as sulfur
limits in diesel and gasoline engines.
Table 1.  A Selection of Emission Control Programs Contributing to PM Emission Reductions, 1995-2015
Program
Clean Air Nonroad
Diesel Rule
Clean Air Interstate Rule
(proposed December 2003)
Acid Rain Program
NOX SIP Call
Regional Haze Rule/
Best Available Retrofit
Technology
PM2 5 Implementation0
PM10 SIPs
(e.g., San Joaquin Valley)
Maximum Achievable
Control Technology
(MACT) Standardsd
Sector
Mobile sources
Electric Utilities
Electric Utilities
Electric Utilities
Electric Utilities'3
Stationary/Area/
Mobile sources
Stationary/Area/
Mobile sources
Stationary/Area
Direct PMa
Reductions
X
X


X
X
X
X
S02
Reductions
X
X
X
X
X
X
X

PM Precursors
NOX VOC
Reductions Reductions
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X
Implementation
Date
2004-2015
2010-2015
1995-2010
2004
2013-2015
2008-2015
Ongoing
1996-2003
 Various Mobile
 Source Programs6
                                                                                    X
                                       Ongoing
a Includes elemental and organic carbon, metals, and other direct emissions of PM.
b Also applies to industrial boiler and the other source categories also covered under Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD).
c Includes Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT) and Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM).
d Includes a variety of source categories such as Boilers and Process heaters. Pulp and Paper, Petroleum Refineries, various minerals and ores,
 and others. While these standards are for hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) such as metals, measures to reduce HAPs in many cases also
 reduce PM emissions.
e Includes such programs as onroad diesel and gasoline engines, nonroad gasoline engines. Low Sulfur Diesel and Gasoline Fuel Limits for
 onroad and  offroad engines. Motorcycles, Land-based recreational vehicles, and Marine diesel engines.
                                                                                                                 23

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       Using Satellites to Track Particulate Matter
        The most direct way to obtain surface concentration data
        for particles is from the routine measurements made at surface
        monitoring stations across the United States. This approach has
        some limitations, however, because large regions of the country
        do not have surface monitors, and coastal regions are often influ-
        enced by polluted air approaching over water. In addition, pollu-
        tion may be transported aloft, undetected by surface monitors,
        and then descend to influence air at the ground. New work
        being done through a collaborative partnership between EPA,
        the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and
        the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
        uses satellite observations to augment the surface network
        monitoring data with satellite data.
        The NASA  MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-
        radiometer) instruments on board the EOS (Earth Observing
        System) satellites EOS-Terra and EOS-Aqua provide twice-daily
        measurements of aerosol optical  depth (AOD), a measure of how
        much  light airborne particles prevent from passing through a
        column of  atmosphere. Scientists use these measurements to
        estimate the relative amount of aerosols suspended in the
        atmosphere.
     IDEA (Infusing satellite Data into Environmental
     Applications) is a partnership between EPA, NASA, and
     NOAA. These agencies are working to improve air
     quality assessment, management, and prediction by
     infusing satellite measurements from NASA into EPA
     and NOAA analyses for public benefit.
Initial research shows that MODIS-derived data are suitable for
tracking air quality events on a regional scale and may be a good
surrogate for estimating the intensity of surface PM2.5 concentra-
tions. More research and data are needed to help show how
aerosol loads are distributed vertically in the atmosphere so that
MODIS-derived AOD can be put into the proper context. For
more information on the MODIS-derived AOD and PM2 5 pollu-
tion  events, go to the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological
Satellite Studies/Space Science and Engineering Center at the
University of Wisconsin-Madison website: http://idea.ssec.wisc.edu.
            Composites of MODIS-derived AOD (color) and cloud optical thickness (black-white) from September 5 to 8, 2003. The
            majority of the high AOD seen in the images (yellow-red) was the result of several very large wildfires in western North
            America from British Columbia to Oregon. MODIS-derived AOD tracked the movement of the plume, which eventually
            affected surface PM2 5 concentrations throughout the midwestern United States.
24

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The  Future
 Figure 19.  Projected emission reductions by 2015.
   National and regional regulations will make
   major reductions in ambient PM25 levels over the
   next 10 to 20 years. In particular, the proposed
   Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) and the
   existing NOX SIP Call, wiU reduce SO2 and NOX
   emissions from certain electric generating units
   and industrial boilers across the eastern half of the
   United States. Regulations to implement the
   ambient air quality standards for PM2 5 will
   require direct PM2 5 and PM2 5 precursor controls
   in nonattainment areas. New national mobile
   source regulations affecting heavy-duty diesel
   engines, highway vehicles, and other mobile
   sources will reduce emissions of NOX, direct
   PM2 5, SO2, and VOCs.

   EPA estimates that current and proposed regula-
   tions for stationary and mobile sources will cut
   SO2 emissions by 6 million tons annually in 2015
   from 2001  levels. NOX emissions will be cut
   9 million tons annually in 2015 from 2001 levels.
   VOC emissions will drop by 3 million tons, and
   direct PM2 5 emissions will be cut by 200,000
   tons in 2015, compared to 2001 levels. Figure 19
   shows anticipated emission reductions. Most  of
   the  SO2 reductions are associated with electric
   generating sources, while NOX and VOC reduc-
   tions for mobile sources are associated with
   continuing improvements in onroad and nonroad
   vehicles.

   Models predicting the effect of these emission
   reductions  on air quality show that all areas in
   the  eastern United States will have lower PM2 5
   concentrations in 2015 relative to present-day
   conditions.  In most cases, the predicted improve-
   ment in PM25 ranges from 10% to 20%. EPA
   estimates that the proposed CAIR combined
   with existing regulations will bring the majority
   of the counties in the  East into attainment for the
   PM2 5 standards. As Figure 20 shows, 99 eastern
   counties are estimated to have exceeded the
   annual PM25 standard in the 1999-2002 period,
   but  only 13 of those counties are projected to
   exceed the PM25 standard by 2015. More infor-
   mation on CAIR can be found at:
   www. epa.gov/interstateairquality/.
20
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              2001
                                2015
 Figure 20. Estimated reduction in number of coun-
  ties exceeding PM2 5 standards from 2001 (99) to
2015 (13), based on current programs plus the Clean
 Air Interstate Rule as proposed  in December 2003.
              Ambient PM2.5,1999-2002
         99 Counties Exceeding PM2.5 Standards
                                        A
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             A  — r;
                   -i
               Estimated PM2.5, 2015
        13 Counties Exceeding PM2.5 Standards
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          Upcoming PM2 5 Designations
          EPA designates areas as attaining or not attaining
          the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for
          fine particulate matter (PM25). EPA designates an
          area as "nonattainment" if it has violated the annual
          or 24-hour national PM2 5 standard (assessed over
          a 3-year period) or if it has contributed to a viola-
          tion of one of the  standards. Once designated,
          nonattainment areas must take actions to improve
          their PM2 5 air quality on a certain timeline.
          Designations are a  crucial first step in the efforts
          of states, tribes, and local  governments to reduce
          harmful levels of fine particles. For more details on
          PM2 5 designations, visit www.epa.gov/
          pmdesignations.
          Note:  Designations are based on 3 years of data,
          and the boundaries of defined nonattainment areas
          may differ from the county boundaries used in
          this report.
PM25 and Other Pollutants
Areas that experience PM2 5 concentrations that
exceed the National Ambient Air Quality
Standards can also have air quality problems associ-
ated with other pollutants. This association in the
presence of different pollutants is not unexpected.
A 2004  report by the National Academies of
Sciences (Air Quality Management in the United
States) indicates that air pollutants "often share
similar precursors and similar chemical reactions
once in  the atmosphere." For example, nitrogen
oxides, which contribute to PM2 5 formation, are
also a key ingredient in ground-level ozone.

Pollutants may also be emitted from the same types
of sources.  Industries that emit air toxics may also
emit chemicals that contribute to ozone or PM
formation.  Data indicate that millions of people
likely live in areas where particle pollution levels
are elevated along with ozone and/or air toxics.
EPA will continue to analyze this information as
we work to protect public health across the
country.
26

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Acronyms
   AOD
   AQI
   BART
   CAA
   CAIR
   CASTNET

   EOS
   EPA

   FRM
   EIAP
   IDEA

   IMPROVE

   IPN
   km
   MACT

   MODIS

   NAAQS
aerosol optical depth
Air Quality Index
best available retrofit technology
Clean Air Act
Clean Air Interstate Rule
Clean Air Status and Trends
Network
Earth Observing System
U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency
Federal Reference Method
hazardous air pollutants
Infusing satellite Data into
Environmental Applications
Interagency Monitoring of
Protected Visual Environments
Inhalable Particulate Network
kilometer
maximum achievable control
technology
moderate  resolution imaging
spectroradiometer
National Ambient Air Quality
Standards
NASA       National Aeronautics and Space
             Administration
NOAA      National Oceanic and Atmospheric
             Administration
NOX        oxides of nitrogen
PM          particulate matter
PM10       particulate matter 10 |_im or less in
             size
PM2 5       particulate matter (fine) 2.5 |_im or
             less in size
PM10_2 5   particulate matter (coarse) between
             10 and 2.5 |_im in size
PSD         prevention of significant
             deterioation
RACM      reasonably available control
             measures
RACT      reasonably available control
             technology
SIP          State Implementation Plan
SO2         sulfur dioxide
TCM        total carbonaceous mass
TSP         total suspended particulate
|j,g/m3       micrograms per cubic meter
|j,m          micrometers
VOC        volatile organic compound
For Further Information
Web Sites
Additional technical information: www. epa.gov/airtrends/pm.html
Air Quality Index (AQI): www.epa.gov/airnow
Clean Air Interstate Rule: wwwepa.gov/interstateairquality/
CASTNET: www.epa.gov/castnet/
Emissions: www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/
EPA 1996 PM Criteria Document: www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs
EPA Monitoring Networks: www.epa.gov/ttn/amtic/
Health and Ecological Effects: www.epa.gov/air/urbanair/pm/index.html
IMPROVE: vista.cira.colostate.edu/improve
National Academies: www4.nationalacademies.org/nas/nashome.nsf
Office of Air and Radiation: www.epa.gov/oar
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards: www.epa.gov/oar/oaqps
Office of Atmospheric Programs: www.epa.gov/air/oap.html
Office of Transportation and Air Quality: www.epa.gov/otaq
Online Air Quality Data: wwwepa.gov/air/data/index.html
PM Supersites: www.epa.gov/ttn/amtic/supersites.html and www.epa.gov/ttn/amtic/laprog.html
PM2.5 Designations: www.epa.gov/pmdesignations
Report on Acid Rain: wwwepa.gov/acidrainreport/
Satellite information: idea.ssec.wisc.edu
Source apportionment: www.epa.gov/oar/oaqps/pm25/docs.html
Visibility: www.epa.gov/airtrends/vis.html
                                                                                                           27

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