&EPA
230S98001
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of
the Administrator
Washington, DC 20460
June 1998
www.epa.gov
Environmental Futures
and Transportation
Roundtable
Meeting Summary
April 14,1998
Washington, DC
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Environmental Futures and Transportation Roundtable
April 14,1998
MEETING SUMMARY
Purpose
The Roundtable was convened to stimulate discussion among leaders from industry,
environmental, transportation and community organizations, academia, and government on
possible environmental challenges facing our nation in the next 30-50 years resulting from trends
in transportation. To better prepare to meet these challenges, the Roundtable focused on
strategies for developing tomorrow's transportation systems in ways that meet our needs for
mobility and accessibility while also protecting public health and the environment.
Background
EPA traditionally has acted to reduce environmental threats that are immediate or near-term. The
Agency's actions usually are driven by evidence of environmental deterioration, widespread
public concern, federal laws, or a combination of the three. In "Beyond the Horizon," (EPA-
SAB-EC-95-007) EPA's Science Advisory Board emphasized the value for EPA and all sectors
of society in anticipating future environmental conditions as a guide for taking action now to
reduce or avoid future environmental problems. The benefits of this foresight are economic,
environmental, and social. For this reason, the Science Advisory Board urged the Agency, in
concert with other stakeholders, to develop a "futures" capability, anticipating future
environmental conditions and analyzing the actions needed to improve them.
The Environmental Futures and Transportation Roundtable was the fourth in a series of
international and domestic fora organized by EPA in pursuit of this objective. Chaired by EPA
Deputy Administrator Fred Hansen, the Roundtable was preceded by discussions among the G-8
countries on the long-range environmental implications of possible future directions of transport.
(See EPA 160-R-98-002 for proceedings of the most recent G-8 meeting, and EPA 160-R-004 for
proceedings of the first G-8 futures forum).
The following conclusions from the G-8 forum provided a point of departure for discussions at
the Roundtable:
"... current trends in transport and technological innovation will deliver further
improvements in local air quality from now to the first decade or two of the next century, if
combined with appropriate fiscal or regulatory measures. However, additional measures
are already needed, and will become more urgent in subsequent years, to achieve the goals
outlined in Kyoto and to address impacts on land use, habitats, noise and urban
environment. In the longer term, fundamentally new transport technologies must be found,
combined with a successful effort to decouple transport growth from economic growth."
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The Forum went on to recommend that G-8 Environment and Transport Ministers, in close
consultation with the public:
• undertake research on environment and transport relationships, including behavioral
factors;
• examine how best to integrate environment and transport policies; and
• establish a best practices program on environment and transport issues among the G-8
countries.
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The Forum also recognized that no simple, single-faceted answer existed for addressing
transportation and environmental issues. For example, technology development will be a key
part of the strategy, but technology alone is not enough to create the fundamental changes that
are necessary over the long-term. Additionally, pricing of fuel and transportation infrastructure
so that true costs are internalized better is important. However, transportation has proven to not
be a very price sensitive component of household budgets and even major price signal increases
are also unlikely to, by themselves, generate the changes necessary.
Just prior to the Roundtable, the G-8 environment ministers endorsed this G-8 futures work and
called on the G-8 countries to take steps to better understand the long-term impacts of
transportation trends by identifying best practices in this area. The Roundtable therefore
represents an important first step in the US effort to address the Ministers' mandate.
Opportunities for Progress
The Roundtable discussion resulted in the recognition of the need to address several issues in
order to more effectively prepare and plan for the future.
Indicators of Progress
In addition to answering basic questions about sustainability, indicators for measuring progress
or lack thereof should be determined, as well as methods for measuring those indicators.
Potential indicator options discussed by participants include vehicle miles traveled, accessibility
of choice, and time expenditures. These indicators will help measure performance as well as
direction of current and future activities, especially as the need for mobility expands in ways that
cannot now be clearly foreseen.
Innovative Policies and Leadership
Throughout history we have too often over or under estimated the nature of future problems,
failed to predict key developments that change what is needed or what is possible, and looked to
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technological solutions that were later shown to have adverse impacts of their own. Examples
include the predictions of oil and natural gas scarcity and the car as a clean alternative to horses
in urban environments. These experiences illustrate the need for designing a flexible approach to
reaching our desired future.
Comprehensive approaches are also vital to the ability to effect long-term fundamental changes.
Transportation policies in the United States are complicated by the fact that outcomes are
determined by strong linkages with land-use patterns, economic activity, and more than 275
million individuals making complex choices. For any strategy to be effective it must pursue
technological, market based, public policy, private partnership and public education approaches
at the same time.
It was also noted that we often have a difficult time making progress on issues that are complex
and do not have immediate consequences. Therefore, developing a road map of where we are
going would be helpful. A strategic vision that articulates both why it is important to make
fundamental changes and creates positive visions of how we get there will be needed to make
progress.
Spreading Innovation
An encouraging current trend is the development of a number of locally based innovations that
take a fresh approach to addressing transportation and environmental quality issues. However,
these innovations are generally spread at a slow pace, effecting the rate of the adoption of these
innovations elsewhere. The increased pace at which regional economic and land development
patterns are changing adds urgency to "increasing the pace at which the system is able to learn
and adapt."
Vital to improving transportation and environmental problems is the development of better
mechanisms to disseminate information with respect to best practices. Also, education of both
the policy makers and the public is important to effectuating change. Participants agreed that this
education should most likely begin with the creation of a common vocabulary regarding goals,
drivers, and the nature of solutions. Citizens should also be educated in order to comprehend the
relevance of transportation and environmental issues to their everyday lives.
Research
Further research is required to better understand and clearly define relevant factors and drivers in
transportation decisions, both individually and institutionally. Individual variables in the system
need to be identified as well as influencing factors on those variables. These include, but are not
limited to: 1) technological innovations that reduce impacts and increase system efficiencies; 2)
understanding behavior and how choices are set up or influenced; and 3) policies that provide
appropriate incentives and/or information and/or options for people to respond to. To further
complete the level of understanding, a critical examination of the trends in transportation and
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related environmental impacts and possible implications of these trends needs to continue in
order to direct a path towards the desired future.
The Path Ahead
Strong leadership by both the public and private sector will be needed to create the fundamental
changes required to meet growing demands for mobility through transportation systems that are
environmentally tenable. At the same time better planning and flexible approaches are needed in
addressing the challenge. Transportation and its impact on the environment is an extremely
complex issue. There are no single solutions that will create the change that is needed. Instead,
a set of effective solutions that balance public policy, public and private investments, market
based strategies and community based efforts must be initiated locally and spread nationally.
Discussion Summary
Deputy Administrator Hansen provided opening remarks on EPA's interest in finding areas of
environmental policy in which we can look beyond the horizon and toward long-term issues.
The urban form and its impacts on the environment and quality of life is one of the most
important areas for long-term thinking.
There are a mixture of scientific and policy questions that must be answered in looking far out
into the future. The examination of these questions will lead us to think about what each of us
can do to respond now in anticipation of future challenges.
The objectives for this Roundtable discussion as described by Deputy Administrator Hansen
were to:
• stimulate each other's thinking about the future of our environment and how
transportation influences this future;
• envision cooperative efforts that could arise from our insights;
• focus on novel environmental issues rather than the issues that pre-occupy us today.
A series of insights emerged from the discussion that followed about challenges we are likely to
face over the next thirty to fifty years. The importance of developing a common understanding
of the problems we face, indicators to define progress, better knowledge of underlying forces that
shape transportation systems, improved understanding of preferences that influence
transportation and location choices, as well as increasing the pace of change and dissemination of
innovative approaches across the country were key issues identified by Roundtable participants.
The following summary organizes participant comments by themes that emerged during the
discussion. These themes are not statements of Roundtable participant consensus, nor are they
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intended to fully characterize the range of participant comments on the transportation trends that
will shape future environmental challenges. Instead, they provide an organizing framework to
convey a sense of the dynamic interaction that occurred among participants at the meeting.
The Challenge of Looking into the Future
Although participants described their vision of the future in individual terms, commonalities did
emerge throughout the discussion. The importance of striking the right balance between futures
thinking and progress in solving today's problems was consistently raised. Progress in achieving
transportation and environmental improvements is essential to properly foster momentum
towards future solutions. By striking the correct balance, futures thinking can help the United
States to better prepare for the environmental and transportation challenges of the twenty-first
century while ensuring that current efforts to move forward continue.
Participants recognized that policies and actions related to the transportation sector have
historically been reactive. As a result, transportation problems and challenges have often
outstripped those efforts designed to address them. This was noted as one of the important
reasons to focus on futures thinking with respect to transportation.
In envisioning a cleaner environment in the future, with fewer impacts from both transportation
and other potential environmentally detrimental activities, participants noted the importance of a
healthy balance of government, public, and industry action with respect to providing, operating,
and leveraging transportation systems. These systems would be more efficient, allowing for
more trips on the same system. Transportation options would also be readily accessible,
providing transport users with genuine choices when making decisions as to how to achieve
desired levels of mobility. This accessibility would include, but not be limited to, locating public
transport in a greater number of places, creating greater flexibility in scheduling, and planning
social and economic services in close proximity to transit stations as well as enabling more
pedestrian friendly transport. The true costs of using different modes of transport would also be
readily apparent to all users. External costs to health and the environment would play a role in
transportation decision-making and pricing. This would allow for the consequences of
transportation practices and decisions to be widely known.
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The Path to the Future
Roundtable participants agreed that the path to this envisioned future should begin with a clearly
articulated definition of transportation and environmental problems and a measure of their scope.
Defining the problem would require comprehensive assessments of the behavioral, technological,
and economic factors effecting both transportation and the environment. All stakeholders could
then be "on the same page" when addressing transportation and environmentally related issues.
With this common understanding of the issues, stakeholders would be able to proceed towards
the future from a common reference. Participants stressed that this exercise itself will not
necessarily reveal, in the present, all the decisions that need to be made to achieve the desired
future. This process could instead be the basis for beginning a more iterative process in planning
and achieving mobility which would also respond quickly to new information and the need for
adaptation.
Roundtable participants discussed several approaches for moving towards the future. One
consisted of a series of smaller steps, adjustments and improvements to present practices in
order to redirect the current path toward the desired future. Such an adjustment might, for
example, consist of providing more and better public transit options with increased service. A
second approach required major structural and institutional changes that might redefine or
eliminate current practices that are detrimental to the environment. One example of a significant
change might be increasing the cost of fuel. Price signaling through a price increase would raise
the total cost of travel, thereby creating the basis for a possible change in travel decisions.
Others suggested that the path to the desired future may be a combination of both smaller
adjustments and major realignments. It was agreed that the definition of both the problem and a
measurement of the scope of the problem would help identify the best approach.
Regardless of the character of the approach chosen, Roundtable participants generally agreed that
it should embrace more proactive steps, breaking the historical tendency to address transportation
issues largely in a reactive manner. The types and numbers of choices that must be considered
should also be comprehensive, addressing the full series of interlocking economic and
environmental issues and drivers. Among those issues, participants listed land use patterns,
technological innovation, patterns of economic and trade related transportation choices, and
changes in personal travel decisions. Key drivers influencing the environmental response to
transportation impacts include climate change, air quality, congestion issues, and habitat
loss/fragmentation. In addition, another driver raised was the quality of life overall, especially
with respect to length of time spent commuting and personal safety associated with other modes
of travel (biking, walking, etc.).
While needing to be comprehensive, it was agreed that the path towards the envisioned future
also needs to be flexible, allowing for necessary adjustments and adaptions to unforeseen
consequences. An example raised was that of the introduction of the car in the early 20th
century. At the time cars were viewed as the answer to solving the sanitation and public health
problems created by the use of horses; however, the nature and amount of pollution to be created
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by the car was not foreseen. Any approach taken in the future needs to allow for adjustments to
address the inevitable appearance of unforeseen consequences.
Creating/Influencing the Desired Future
In moving toward this desired future, participants generally agreed that it is imperative to also
address more immediate environmental and transportation problems. Solving specifically
defined current problems would have a positive environmental effect both in the present and
future. The development of unleaded gasoline was raised as a historical example . In that
scenario a clearly defined problem existed - lead in air - and was targeted for resolution -
removing lead from gasoline. The resulting success in doing so had positive health and
environmental consequences for both the present and future. In this context, it was noted that an
important aspect of engaging in these immediate steps is that interim successes develop
confidence and momentum by creating positive change now.
Also important is the role of different stakeholders in addressing the impact of transportation on
the environment. Environmentalists and public interests play an important role in bringing
current and potential environmental problems to light. Government then can create the policy to
further address those problems and encourage and/or regulate responses that can fix the problem.
Business and the public must embrace these policies and respond to them by taking appropriate
action.
Understanding and Promoting Change
Technological Change: Participants discussed several influences on the development and
direction of the desired future. Participants agreed that among the most important of these
influences is the development and application of innovative technology, affecting both
transportation and the environment. These positive technological innovations include both
environmentally beneficial specific applications and transportation system oriented
developments. Technologies such as fuel cells, alternative fuel vehicles, and global positioning
systems could significantly affect how and in which way people travel in the future. It was
stressed, however, that although technology is a critical element of future change, it cannot be
solely relied upon to achieve the desired future. Technological innovations can also replace one
known problem with a yet to be discovered problem, and hence should not be viewed as a
panacea.
Governmental Leadership: Governmental decision-making and leadership was included as an
important factor influencing the future. A key part of that leadership is taking the lead in
establishing the desired goals and initiating policies that allow the public the flexibility to
determine solutions to meet those goals. The federal government should also serve as a role-
model by sending the right messages through both action and policy. One example of public
sector leadership that is troubling is the number of employees in the B.C. area who currently
have free or subsidized parking. This practice does not encourage employees to chose alternative
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means of transit to travel to work. Participants agreed that government must lead in policies that
support and encourage the right kind of behavior.
Government also has an important role in public education. In order to create changes in
behavior, the public should be aware of the issues and costs associated with transportation and its
impact on the environment. Positive examples of government-lead nationwide campaigns that
have affected behavior include those against cigarette smoking and drunk driving, and for seat
belt use. By engaging in education and awareness campaigns, the government can have a
profound influence on the development and use of transportation in the future.
In addition, governmental institutions should lead and manage change. Government may have
an impact on the future by restructuring those governmental institutions created to address
nineteenth century issues in a manner which will more effectively address the challenges of the
twenty-first century. For instance, in the United Kingdom, a single, unified Department of the
Environment, Transport, and the Regions was created in .1997. This consolidation represented a
recognition of the need to integrate environmental and transport planning. A transformation in
the way the government engages its citizens in decision-making will also be necessary to enlist
support for a forward-looking, rather than reactive, approach to developing transportation
options.
Influencing Supply and Demand for Transport: Also influencing the future will be the
response of the transportation system to the demand .for and supply of different modes of
transportation. Although these responses are not readily quantifiable at this time, there are
several important behavioral factors that affect demand and supply, and the response of the
transportation system to them.
Among those factors discussed were the range of incentives and disincentives that influence
behavior and choice. The need for incentives with longer life spans was raised in order to
encourage commitment to long-term actions and allow for those investing to see a return on
those commitments. For instance, companies considering investing in modes of transport now
that will be used for the next 25 years need strong incentives to invest up-front in cleaner, more
efficient modes of transportation. By providing strong incentives now, the benefits of
transportation decisions will span over the greater lengths of time needed for return on
investment. In addition, more policies are needed that create the opportunities for the right
incentives to emerge. One participant shared how his organization responded to a state law
requiring reduction in single occupancy vehicle use by implementing a company-wide policy that
provided incentives to employees to use alternative methods of transport (e.g. car pools and van
pools). The policy was implemented through educating employees about options available to
them, allowing employees to make their own choices based on those options, company
leadership and benefits, and forming partnerships with local transportation providers. By
providing modest incentives to employees, the company realized a dramatic shift in transport
behaviors, at little overall cost. Participants noted that these types of programs had a positive
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effect on both the environment and business, and that benefits can be provided to the employees
of the company who shift their transportation choices.
In addition to providing those using transportation with the right incentives, discussion also
focused on the responsibility of the public and private sectors to provide incentives to
researchers, academics, and industry to solve specific transportation and environmental
problems. Policies should also be applied consistently across different modes of transport. For
example, a policy that creates incentives to reduce truck transport should not be met with
restrictive rail regulations that are a disincentive to choosing that mode of transport. Participants
stressed that disincentives to responsible transportation and environmental choices need to be
identified and addressed in order to have a coherent positive effect on behavior.
Consumer Preference: Roundtable participants addressed the important behavioral element of
consumer preference, recognizing that everyday there are over 275 million people in the United
States making choices related to transportation. Many factors influence consumer preference,
including the convenience and/or safety of using alternative modes of transportation. In addition,
the perceived status of different transportation modes also influences the choices made by
individual consumers. To exemplify the impact of status perception, an example with respect to
the use of buses in affluent East and West Hampton, New York was raised. Buses are frequently
perceived as an undesirable means of transportation, however in the Hamptons, buses were
redesigned and called jitneys, thereby increasing ridership by a large percentage.
Personal Choice in Transport Modes: Another important behavioral influence raised was
access to transportation alternatives. True choice for the public implies accessibility to multiple,
affordable and flexible modes of transportation. Ideally, public transportation systems would be
affordable, provide regular routes and reliable service, and have adequate operating intervals and
times of service. Equally important would be the need to ensure a certain level of safety while
traveling via alternative modes of transport. For example, officials in Great Britain saw an
increased percentage in single vehicle trips and discovered that a significant percent of that
increase was due to parents driving children to school. Officials realized that the increase in
school trips was due to parental concern about the welfare of their children when walking or
bicycling between school and home. This concern effectively eliminated non-motorized
transport as an option. In San Francisco, many schools terminated bus services because of high
insurance costs and school district budgetary constraints. Without safe walking or biking
alternatives, many children are how driven to school by parents there as well.
The link between social service programs and transportation illustrates another facet of
accessibility. By providing public transport users with true choices, a percentage of the
population (the aged, children, and low income) now effectively without access to adequate and
affordable transportation would have greater opportunity to explore other choices. One
participant noted that a company has been actively involved with a welfare to work program. It
facilitated reverse commuting in order to bring inner city workers to suburban work sites and
also to provide access to child care. By working with local transportation providers and day care
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providers, the company has been able to ensure that these employees would be able to get to and
from work as their schedules required.
In addition to accessibility and flexibility, another element of choice discussed by the group was
information and education. By being fully aware of the available choices and the effects of those
choices, transportation users have the ability to understand the choices they need to make for
both adequate mobility and environmental protection to occur.
Land Use Practices and Transport Decisions: Participants discussed the influence of
locational decisions on chosen modes of transport. Locating businesses, public buildings,
shopping areas, child care facilities, and other services based upon proximity to public transport,
has a positive effect on the use of public transportation. One example discussed was the
construction of the MCI Center in downtown Washington D.C. The Capitol Center, located
outside of Washington D.C. in Maryland, previously housed sporting events and concerts and
was not centrally located to public transportation. Consequently, almost 100% of those attending
events at the arena traveled via automobile. The new MCI Center was constructed in downtown
Washington D.C., in close proximity to a metro rail station. Now 60-70% of those attending
events at the center use public transportation to get there. Focusing appropriate mixed use
planning around transit sites also ensures that communities have access to public transport. The
significant effect of these types of locational decisions on behavior and choice, as well as on the
overall vitality of city centers, was recognized byRoundtable participants.
"Smart Growth" practices were also discussed as having an important influence on transport
behavior. One strategy was outlined where funds were invested, both transportation and other
capital investments, in a manner consistent with smart land use practices. The goal of such
policies is to re-direct spending toward designated areas of growth and away from sprawl
development - on the fringe of urban or suburban areas. Recognizing and acting upon this
important link between economics and land use could greatly affect infrastructure and land use
patterns. For instance, approximately eighty percent of personal vehicle trips taken in the U.S.
are non-work related. By improving the economic health, encouraging investment in mixed-use
or transit oriented development in core areas, this number may be reduced as the necessity for
automobile travel is diminished.
The importance of neighborhood design can also influence behavior and choice. Urban design
that pays attention to the needs of pedestrians and bicycles rather than simply maximizing car
traffic flows are essential to making non-motorized transportation a more viable option. If such
infrastructure doesn't exist or travelers feel that the option is not viable because of personal
safety concerns, then walking and/or riding will not be an effective transport option. Participants
discussed the possibility of planning auto-free communities which would by default create safe
pedestrian venues rather than auto dependent residential developments. By planning in a manner
that is pedestrian friendly and incorporates public transit, communities will more likely be
committed to planned land use patterns because of the transport benefits.
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Information Dissemination: Critical to inducing change is the development and dissemination
of best practices. It is apparent that there is a need to improve information sharing about what
does and does not work. Important to improving transportation systems will be an acceleration
of the pace of information sharing regarding best practices. Some experience does exist with
respect to what practices work and do not work; emphasis therefore should be placed on effective
dissemination of this knowledge. Concurrently, further practical experience and research is
needed on the critical factors influencing the overall demand for transportation and the selection
of system options.
Partnerships: The Roundtable explored different avenues for developing cooperative
partnerships; not only within the government, but between the public sector, private sector,
communities and non-profit organizations. An important outcome of the Roundtable was the
recognition of the importance of building relationships that facilitate the joint development of
flexible, forward looking approaches to future environmental challenges.
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Appendix A: List of Participants
Fred Hansen
Deputy Administrator
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Mortimer Downey
Deputy Secretary
U.S. Department of Transportation
Robert H. Campbell
Chairman & CEO
Sun Oil Company
Damian J. Kulash
President & CEO
Eno Transportation Foundation, Inc.
Hank Dittmar
Executive Director
Surface Transportation Planning Project
Jacky Grimshaw
Transportation Director
Center for Neighborhood Technology
Elizabeth Deakin
Professor of Urban Planning
University of California, Berkeley
Mack Hogans
Senior Vice President for Corporate Affairs
Weyerhaeuser Company
John L. Duve
Advanced Transportation Systems Manager
San Diego Association of Governments
Richard A. White
General Manager
Washington Metropolitan Area Transit
Authority
Sheryl W. Washington,
Vice-President, Public Affairs
United Parcel Service
David Winstead
Secretary
Maryland Department of Transportation
David Gardiner
Assistant Administrator, Office of Policy
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Janno Lieber
Assistant Secretary,
Office of the Assistant Secretary for
Transportation Policy
U.S. Department of Transportation
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