EPA NACEPT Pub Final 11/15/02 11:50 PM Page 1
  .
   Fill  ENVIRONMENTAL FUTUI
    SEFA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency

                                           Emerging Challenges
                                            and Opportunities
                                                  for EPA
    A Report from the
National Advisory Council for
 Environmental Policy and
  Technology (NACEPT)

    September 2002

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                                                    NOTICE

                This report  was produced by the National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and
             Technology (NACEPT),  an  independent federal advisory committee providing extramural policy
             advice to the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). NACEPT provides
             balanced and expert assessments of policy  matters related to the environmental programs of the
             United States. Its operation is supported by the EPA.

                The Council consulted with many EPA offices while developing this report. The contents of this
             report and its recommendations do not necessarily represent the views and policies of EPA, nor of
             other federal government agencies, nor does the mention of trade names, companies, or commercial
             products constitute a recommendation or endorsement for use.

                                                EPA 100-R-02-001
                                      U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency
                                           Office of the Administrator
                                Office of Cooperative  Environmental Management
                                            http://www.epa.gov/ocem
                                                 September  2002

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EPA NACEPT Pub  Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page 3
             Letter  to  the Administrator

             September 19, 2002

             The Honorable Christine Todd Whitman
             Administrator
             U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
             1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
             Washington, DC 20460

             Dear Governor Whitman:

                    The  National  Advisory Council  for Environmental Policy and Technology
             (NACEPT) is pleased to present to you our most recent report, The Environmental Future:
             Emerging Challenges and Opportunities for EPA. This report reflects the evolving strategic
             role that EPA envisioned for the Council in March 2000.

                    Policymakers too seldom have  the  opportunity to contemplate long-term  or
             emerging environmental challenges.  Futures analysis, the art and science of anticipating
             nascent environmental issues, can facilitate EPA's proactive planning to prevent potential
             problems rather than responding after the fact. This report reviews EPA's current futures
             analysis capability  and recommends that more  be done to  support environmental
             foresight programs.  In  addition,  the  report  offers  a  framework  to  analyze the
             environmental implications of trends in world population and demographics, natural
             resources, science and technology, information management and access, economics and
             commerce, and politics and social evolution.  The report concludes with general and
             specific recommendations for how EPA can best address these changing  conditions.

                    The unthinkable events  of the past year remind us that, along with securing our
             borders, our nation needs to  secure its natural  resources and environmental legacy.
             Concerted efforts to improve environmental foresight will  help EPA secure the nation's
             vital resources and help EPA remain a global leader in applying innovative and effective
             solutions to complex environmental problems.

                    NACEPT appreciates this opportunity to advise the EPA and looks forward to a
             response from you and the program offices affected by  these recommendations. The
             Council also looks forward to an ongoing dialogue with EPA as it continues its role as a
             strategic and visionary counselor.

                                               Sincerely,
                                               Dorothy Bowers, Chair
                                               National Advisory Council for
                                               Environmental Policy and Technology

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             TABLE OF  CONTENTS
             NACEPT Members




             Acknowledgments




             Executive Summary




             SECTION I      Introduction




             SECTION II.     Improving EPAs Environmental Foresight




             SECTION III.     Emerging Challenges and Opportunities




                                World Population and Demographics




                                Natural Resources




                                      Energy




                                      Water




                                      Biodiversity, Land and Food




                                      Air




                                Science and Technology




                                Information Management and Access




                                Economics and Commerce




                                Politics and Social Evolution




                          Conclusions




                          Summary of Recommendations




                                Charge to NACEPT




                                Endnotes
SECTION IV




SECTION V




Attachment A




Attachment B
Page





    i




   iv




   vi




   1




   5




   9




  11




  15




  16




  20




  24




  29




  33




  39




  45




  51




  57




  59




  67

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                                                                     Members
                                                           Ms. Dorothy P. Bowers
                                                              NACEPT Chair
                                                          Merck & Company, Inc.
                                                               Matawan, NJ
                                  Dr. Carlos H. Arce*
                                       President
                             NuStats Research & Consulting
                                      Austin, TX

                                Mr. Gary W. Ballesteros*
                               Assistant General Counsel
                                for Environmental Affairs
                              Rockwell International Corp.
                                    Milwaukee, WI

                                 Dr. D. Randall Brandt
                         Senior Vice President, Integrated Services
                                      Burke, Inc.
                                    Cincinnati, OH

                                    Dr. Tom Davies
                                 Senior Vice-President
                                 Current Analysis, Inc.
                                     Sterling, VA

                                  Ms. KirbyA. Dyess
                         Vice-President/Director of Intel Capital
                                   Intel Corporation
                                     Hillsboro, OR

                                 Mr. Mark Greenwood
                                     Ropes & Gray
                                   Washington, DC

                                Mr. Richard J. Guimond
                         Vice-President and Corporate Director
                             Environment, Health, & Safety
                                     Motorola, Inc.
                                    Schaumburg, IL

                                     Ms. Janet Hall
                              Director, Publishing Systems
                                 America Online, Inc.
                                      Dulles, VA

                              Mr. Grover Glenn Hankins*
                                    Professor of Law
                       Director of the Environmental Justice Clinic
                            Thurgood Marshall School of Law
                               Texas Southern University
                                     Houston, TX

                            Dr. Frederick B. Henderson, III*
                                  HENDCO Services
                                     Nathrop, CO
              Ms. Linda Hixon*
               Workgroup Chair
              Executive Director
    North Chickamauga Creek Conservancy
              Chattanooga, TN

              Mr. Charles Jones*
                Commissioner
            Douglas County, Kansas
                Lawrence, KS

            Dr. Charles C. Kidd, Sr.
            President, York College
        The City University of New York
                 Jamaica, NY

            Mr. James L. Ledbetter
            Executive Vice-President
Law Engineering and Environmental Services,  Inc.
                Kennesaw, GA

              Mr. David Marsh*
                  Chairman
           Marsh Plating Corporation
                Ypsilanti, MI

              Mr. Kevin Mills*
            Senior Attorney/Director
          Pollution Prevention Alliance
            Environmental Defense
              Washington, DC

           Mr. Robert L. Rhodes, Jr.
    NACEPT Chair Emeritus (1997-2001)
           Deputy Managing Partner
            Holland & Knight, LLP
              Washington, DC

              Dr. Marc J. Rogoff
                Vice President
              HDR Engineering
                 Tampa, FL

            Mr.  Bernard D. Rostker
               Senior Associate
              RAND Corporation
                Arlington, VA

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                                                                     Members
                                  Ms. Wilma Subra*
                                   Technical Advisor
                        Louisiana Environmental Action Network
                                    New Iberia, LA

                                  Dr. Joseph Sullivan
                                       Professor
                             Dept. of Chemical Engineering
                            Virginia Polytechnic Institute and
                                    State University
                                    Blacksburg, VA

                                 Mr. Richard Sustich*
                     Assistant Director of Research and Development
                        Metropolitan Water Reclamation District
                                  of Greater Chicago
                                      Chicago, IL

                                Dr. Valerie Petit Wilson*
                                    Deputy Director
                                     Tulane/Xavier
                         Center for Bio-Environmental Research
                               Clinical Associate Professor
                             Environmental Health Services
                                School of Public Health
                        Tulane University Health  Sciences Center
                                   New Orleans, LA

                                 Ms. Patricia K. Wood
                                       Manager
                               Federal Regulatory Affairs
                              Georgia-Pacific Corporation
                                   Washington, DC
         EPA STAFF MANAGERS

              Ms. Sonia Altieri*
           Designated Federal Officer
 NACEPT Emerging Trends & Issues Workgroup
Office of Cooperative Environmental Management
           Office of the Administrator
     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
               Washington, DC

           Mr. Peter G. Redmond, Jr.
      NACEPT Designated Federal Officer
Office of Cooperative Environmental Management
           Office of the Administrator
     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
               Washington, DC

                Mr. Mark Joyce
             Senior Policy Advisor
Office of Cooperative Environmental Management
           Office of the Administrator
     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
               Washington, DC
                                                       CONTRACT SUPPORT

                                                        Mr. Robert Olson, Ph.C.
                                                       Futures Analysis Consultant
                                                           Research Director
                                                     Institute for Alternative Futures
                                                            Alexandria, VA
         Emerging Trends and Issues Workgroup Member

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                 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS







                    We wish to acknowledge the many individuals who generously contributed their



             time, talent, and expertise in developing this report.



                    First, the National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology



             (NACEPT) is deeply indebted to the tireless efforts of the Emerging Trends and Issues



             Workgroup members who  devoted countless hours to meetings, teleconferences,  and



             revisions of this report.  The Workgroup displayed a remarkable  esprit de corps  and



             commitment to the  work.   We express  our  deep gratitude  and appreciation to Linda



             Hixon for chairing the Workgroup, and  Richard Sustich for his leading role in shaping



             and completing the report.



                    We wish to thank the EPA program offices that supported this work, with special



             recognition to Anita Street and Michael Brody from the Office of the Chief Financial



             Officer (OCFO),  who generously shared their  resources,  expertise  and enthusiasm.



             Through OCFO, NACEPT was able to tap into the expertise of Robert Olson, a futurist



             and Research Director from the Institute for Alternative Futures, who helped us frame our



             ideas and articulate our vision.  Special thanks also to Renelle Rae of the Office of Air and



             Radiation (OAR) who coordinated and facilitated the Group Ware exercise, and to Pasky



             Pascual of the Office of Research and Development (ORD), who provided invaluable



             expertise and creative ideas for collaboration between EPA and NACEPT.



                    A note of gratitude to  the EPA staff who provided comments on the report,



             including Ed Bender, Michael  Binder, Dennis  Cunningham,  Amy Haseltine, John



             Kargul, John Mason, John Moses, Pasky  Pascual, Renelle Rae, Jeremy Schreifels, Patricia



             Scott, Ravi Srivastava, Doreen Sterling, Anita Street, Bryan-Wood Thomas, Chris Tirpak,



             and Jim Vickery.  We also wish to thank members of the public for their input.  In



             particular, Peter Rzeszotarski (Army Environmental Policy Institute), Troy Seidle (People



             for Ethical Treatment of Animals), and Mike Paque (Ground Water Protection Council).



             Their trenchant comments simultaneously  broadened our horizon  and  focused  our



             debate, and, in the end, strengthened the report and recommendations.  Thanks, also, to

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                        Andy  Schwartz,  from Industrial  Economics,  Inc.,  for his  support organizing and



                        incorporating the many comments.



                               Finally, we are indebted to Gordon Schisler, the Acting Director of the Office of



                        Cooperative Environmental Management  (OCEM) and his staff at EPA.  This report



                        would not have  been possible  without the unflagging efforts  of Sonia Altieri,  the



                        Designated Federal Officer for the Emerging Trends and Issues Workgroup.   Sonia's



                        persistence, creativity and passion toward her work spurred on the Workgroup, even in its



                        most trying hours.  A heartfelt thanks, also,  goes to Peter Redmond,  the  NACEPT



                        Designated Federal Officer who  initially  facilitated  Workgroup meetings, but later



                        oversaw the work of the Council. Peter and Sonia  both played critical roles in the final



                        editing and production of this report and we thank  them for their extraordinary efforts.

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                 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY







                    Our nation's approach to environmental protection  has  been largely reactive.



             Environmental laws, institutions and regulations have been created in response to existing



             environmental and public health threats.  Policymakers rarely have the opportunity to



             contemplate long-term or emerging environmental challenges. Futures analysis, the art



             and science of anticipating nascent environmental issues, encourages proactive planning



             to prevent potential problems, rather than responding after the fact.



                    The National  Advisory  Council  for  Environmental Policy and  Technology



             (NACEPT)  was  asked  by the  U.S.  Environmental  Protection  Agency (EPA)



             Administrator to play a more strategic and visionary advisory role in March of 2000.  In



             response,  NACEPT agreed to review and recommend environmental foresight methods,



             and to identify emerging trends and issues relevant to EPA in the next five to ten years.



                    Understanding  the environmental consequences of future social, economic and



             technological changes can help EPA make better-informed and more strategic decisions.



             This report recommends a comprehensive, continuous and institutional futures scanning



             process to identify emerging trends and issues.  It also identifies emerging opportunities



             for EPA and describes the futures analysis framework developed by NACEPT to explore



             beyond the horizon.



                    NACEPT recommends that the Administrator of EPA and her senior leadership



             champion the use of environmental foresight methods.  While some EPA  offices have



             made notable progress,  more can be done to institutionalize futures analysis into Agency-



             wide strategic planning processes.  This will require the dedication of staff and resources



             to  make  environmental  foresight an EPA priority.   This  report  identifies several



             overarching proposals  to improve EPA's  ability to  anticipate and address emerging



             environmental challenges. These include the following:







                   +     Create an ongoing scanning process that involves all major parts of EPA.

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                               +     Support the  ongoing work of  EPA's  Futures Network  and provide



                                     additional training on environmental scanning, scenario development, and



                                     modeling.







                               +     Incorporate futures  analysis into EPA's strategic  planning.   Integrate



                                     scanning, scenarios,  and other  foresight methodologies  into the formal



                                     planning process.





                               In  identifying the most significant emerging  challenges and opportunities for



                        EPA, NACEPT created a foresight framework which  divides  human activities into six



                        broad themes for analysis. These themes include: World Population and Demographics,



                        Natural Resources,  Science  and Technology, Information Management and  Access,



                        Economics and Commerce,  and Politics and Social Evolution.  The report analyzes each



                        of these themes and provides an overview of emerging developments entitled Forecast and



                        Context.  It also describes the Desired State of the future and the Opportunities for EPA to



                        move  forward.   The opportunities are formal  recommendations  for  the  EPA



                        Administrator and the Agency's senior leadership.



                               This report divides Opportunities for EPA  into immediate, mid-term and long-



                        term categories. A summary of the recommendations can be  found on page 59 of this



                        report.   The NACEPT Council  recognizes  that this long  list of recommendations



                        represents  a snapshot of emerging issues for EPA to proactively and strategically address.



                        NACEPT  looks forward to continuing its work with the Administrator  and the EPA



                        program offices to respond to these recommendations.

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            The Environmental  Future:
            Emerging  Challenges  and Opportunities
            for  EPA

            A Report of the
            National Advisory Council for
            Environmental  Policy and Technology

            SECTION I.
            INTRODUCTION	

                  In March 2000, the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
            (EPA) asked the National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology
            (NACEPT) to play a more strategic and visionary role in advising EPA.  In its efforts to
            incorporate this new responsibility, NACEPT embarked on a journey that explored
            strategic planning tools with a focus on environmental foresight. Specifically, NACEPT
            agreed  to recommend a process to identify emerging trends  and  to prepare  its own
            assessment of these challenges and their implications for EPA.
                  NACEPT is a federal advisory committee that counsels the EPA Administrator on
            a  broad range of domestic and international environmental  policy, technology,  and
            management issues.  The Council is a balanced panel of outside experts who represent
            diverse interests from academia,  non-governmental organizations  (NGOs), business,
            industry, state, tribal and local governments.  To address the Administrator's charge, a
            subset  of  the Council  organized as the Emerging Trends  and  Issues Workgroup.
            Workgroup members met with leading  futurists, consulted with EPA program offices,
            reviewed futures analysis processes and developed this report through numerous meetings
            and conference  calls. The Workgroup periodically reported  its  progress to  the full
            Council and submitted draft recommendations for discussion  and modification.  This
            final report is the Council's response to the Administrator's request.

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      SECTION I                                                                                 INTRODUCTION
                        Our Environmental Security

                              No one saw it coming and no one predicted the horror. The events of September
                        11, 2001 and the subsequent war on terrorism have turned the nation's focus to homeland
                        security and the work of disabling international terrorist organizations. These events have
                        permanently changed the way America does business and should serve as a clarion call for
                        Americans concerned with protecting our natural resources and our environmental legacy.
                        If we learned one thing from those events, it is the value of looking ahead - a concerted
                        effort  at  improving  environmental  foresight can  help EPA secure the nation's vital
                        resources.
                              Like many federal agencies, EPA will play a critical role in our nation's war on
                        terrorism. One important role EPA can play involves the increased use of environmental
                        foresight. EPA should continue to assess the state of our nation's environment, to research
                        and identify environmental  stressors, and to implement a national strategy to address
                        those  stressors.   But to  effectively carry out  this function, EPA will  need to look
                        increasingly farther into the future to anticipate challenges  and to identify opportunities
                        for environmental improvement and security.  This future visioning should be a rational,
                        ongoing "aiming of the radar."  The purpose of this  report is to share the results and
                        recommendations from NACEPT's own first  scan of the radar.
                        Environmental Surprise and Foresight

                              Ecologist  C.S.  Holling  coined  the term "environmental  surprise" to refer to
                        environmental  phenomena in which reality  departs qualitatively from  expectations.
                        Recent history is replete with examples of these unanticipated environmental events: the
                        depletion of the ozone layer by chlorofluorocarbons; the devastating biological effects of
                        DDT, thalidomide, and  other  chemicals; the  nuclear disaster at Chernobyl and the
                        chemical catastrophe at Bhopal;  and the emergence of AIDS and other lethal viruses.

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       THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA	SECTION







                     In the past, environmental  laws, institutions  and regulations were created in



              response  to existing environmental  and public health threats.   Future environmental



              protection efforts must seek to anticipate emerging threats.  Indeed, more environmental



              surprises lie ahead as human numbers grow, economic output expands, globalization and



              urbanization continue, and new technologies emerge.  Some events will be inherently



              unpredictable, but there are many others that can be anticipated and assessed,  and their



              negative effects mitigated or forestalled.



                     In its  1995 report, Beyond the Horizon, the EPA Science Advisory Board (SAB)



              challenged EPA  "to begin to  anticipate future environmental problems, and then take



              steps to avoid them, not just respond to them after the fact." While EPA has not fully



              addressed the SAB's  challenge,  there  has been  some  notable  progress.  Innovative



              environmental foresight efforts are underway in the Office of the Chief Financial Officer



              (OCFO), the Office of Radiation and Indoor Air (ORIA), the Office of Research and



              Development (ORD), the Office of International Affairs (OIA), the Office of Prevention,



              Pesticides, and Toxic Substances (OPPTS), and other units within EPA.  Currently, the



              Managing for Results Steering Group, led by OCFO, is examining ways to integrate



              futures analysis into strategic planning.  Also, OCFO established a Futures Network, a



              group of EPA staff and managers who have strategic planning responsibilities or interest



              in futures analysis.  In 2001, OCFO twice sponsored the Federal Futures Practitioners



              Roundtable, a forum for federal agency foresight and futures professionals.  Still, these



              efforts  have yet to result in significant changes to Agency-wide strategic planning and



              priority setting.

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             SECTION  II.
             IMPROVING  ERA'S
             ENVIRONMENTAL  FORESIGHT	

                    In its charge,  the  National  Advisory  Council for Environmental Policy and
             Technology (NACEPT) was asked to recommend a process to enhance EPA's ability to
             identify emerging trends and issues. To be effective, this process must be comprehensive,
             continuous, and institutional.
                    Comprehensive means exploring all drivers and trends that can impact EPA's
             mission, not just selected areas of concern. Like a good radar system, it must continually
             scan the horizon in all directions.  The organization of "themes"  detailed below is one
             framework for a comprehensive radar.
                    Continuous means a process that is more than a single snapshot; it should be  an
             ongoing, long-term process. The trends and issues identified in this document must  be
             viewed as exemplary, and EPA should understand that these may be constantly changing
             or shifting.
                    Finally,  by  institutional,  we mean that the process must  be made a long-term
             activity across EPA. This will require the dedication of staff and resources to monitor
             future  trends and  present analyses  to  senior  leadership on a frequent basis.   Most
             importantly, the Administrator and the Agency must prioritize environmental foresight
             and futures analysis to make it a  reality.
                    Futures  analysis anticipates environmental issues  and  encourages  proactive
             planning to avoid problems, rather than after the fact responses. To implement a futures
             process, EPA should utilize all the major elements of sound futures analysis.  It must
             include such  methodological  elements  as: literature scanning, Delphi expert  panels,
             frequent extraction and prioritization  of issues,  and  analysis and selection of issues

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       SECTION II	IMPROVING ERAS ENVIRONMENTAL FORESIGHT







                        relevant to EPA's mission.  NACEPT can and should serve as a valuable  resource for



                        several of the activities in this process. However, EPA needs to dedicate internal resources



                        to make the process fully effective.



                               In performing the tasks that led to this report, NACEPT followed a regimen that



                        included some of the core methods for sound futurist work. The Emerging Trends and



                        Issues Workgroup assigned individual members with particular expertise the task  of



                        identifying major areas that impact EPA's mission. Brainstorming sessions on thematic,



                        organizational, and conceptual structures of issues followed the initial generation of ideas.



                        The Workgroup engaged in a consensus-building exercise with the use of Groupware



                        software - this is akin to Delphi techniques for consensus building - to establish relevance



                        of the issues and trends.  In the future, if NACEPT advises an EPA "futurist unit," a more



                        formal process for identifying trends and consequences will need to be adopted.  The



                        Workgroup's effort, to date, is a good start.



                               The Workgroup identified several ways of improving EPA's  ability to  anticipate



                        and address emerging environmental problems. They include:








                               +     Create  and provide resources for an  ongoing  scanning  process  that



                                      involves all major parts of EPA and make the findings available.








                               +     Support the ongoing work of the EPA Futures Network, which includes



                                      participants from regional and headquarters offices, who have strategic



                                      planning responsibilities or interest in environmental foresight.








                               +     Continue the work done by the Futures Network to provide training  in



                                      methods of environmental scanning, scenario development, modeling,



                                      and other methodologies  for environmental foresight.








                               +     Encourage environmental  foresight  efforts in  offices and  programs



                                      throughout  EPA, championed by the Administrator  and EPA's senior

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       THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA	SECTION







                            leadership. Develop standard procedures for sharing and integrating the



                            findings of these efforts, but avoid forcing agreement on any single image



                            of the future.








                     +     Incorporate futures analysis into strategic planning.  Scanning, scenarios,



                            and other foresight methodologies need to be integrated into the formal



                            planning process.  The EPA strategic plan is a major step forward, but it



                            still lacks a forward-thinking  approach.   It  helps EPA prioritize  the



                            problems  of today, but gives little or no attention to what tomorrow's



                            problems will  be and how they might be prevented or mitigated by the



                            Agency. Environmental  foresight tools can  help EPA  discover  new



                            technologies to support a problem-preventing approach.








                     +     Evaluate current  programs and environmental  protection activities that



                            could provide warning - or be positioned  to  avoid  the  occurrence or



                            mitigate the impact - of unlikely but catastrophic events such as: terrorist



                            attacks, disease  epidemics,  loss of a keystone species,  or unexpected



                            consequences of technological advances, etc.








                     +     Develop a workforce better  able  to assess emerging challenges and



                            equipped with skills and  competencies that will be needed in the future.



                            EPA is already moving in the  direction of hiring people with multiple



                            points  of expertise, rather than specialists in a narrow field. It needs to



                            continue moving in this  direction and to give even  more attention to



                            hiring and promoting people with a wide breadth of knowledge and cross-



                            discipline  experience.  Better environmental foresight requires  analysts



                            and managers who are able to take a broad cross-media perspective and see



                            connections across problem domains and disciplines.

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       SECTION II	IMPROVING ERAS ENVIRONMENTAL FORESIGHT







                               +      Regularly sample the opinions of a broad range of knowledgeable outside



                                       experts to enhance  cross-fertilization of ideas.  Reach out to different



                                       sectors not typically  involved  in  regulation activities, such  as  those



                                       involved in research and development on leading-edge technologies and



                                       industrial processes.








                               +      Support more work at the edges (and across edges) of conceptual and



                                       problem areas.   Encourage the airing - and rigorous evaluation -  of



                                       unconventional and "outlier" views.








                               +      Continuously  strive to  make management systems  more adaptive.



                                       Organizational theory suggests that internal  openness,  active links to a



                                       wide range of outside parties  and  stakeholders,  a  culture that  rewards



                                       continuous learning, and structural flexibility, make organizations better



                                       able to deal with  surprise.








                               +      Improve response capabilities for early warning, leadership alerting, and



                                       rapid mobilization to  deal with emerging developments that cannot  be



                                       anticipated.








                               These recommendations  are designed to help EPA develop more comprehensive,



                        continuous and institutional environmental foresight. The next section of this report will



                        detail  the recommendations that  NACEPT developed  after completing  its own



                        environmental foresight process.

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             SECTION III.
             EMERGING CHALLENGES
             AND  OPPORTUNITIES
                   In developing its own views  of the most important emerging challenges and
             opportunities for  the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the National
             Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology (NACEPT) strove to achieve
             a comprehensive and global perspective.  To ensure that its own scanning process was
             comprehensive, NACEPT divided human activities into six broad themes for analysis:

                         World Population and Demographics
                         Natural Resources
                         Science and Technology
                         Information Management and Access
                         Economics and Commerce
                         Politics and Social Evolution

                   The bulk of this report deals with an analysis of each of these themes, including:
             an overview of emerging developments entitled Forecast and Context, a description of
             the Desired State  that  NACEPT believes is facilitative  of best  environmental
             management and a sustainable future, and the Opportunities that exist for EPA to help
             move toward this  desired  state.   The opportunities  are formal recommendations put
             forward by the NACEPT Council for consideration by the Administrator and EPA's
             leadership. The Summary of Recommendations section of the report categorizes these
             recommendations by EPA's ability to implement  them in the  short, medium and long
             term.

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       THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA               SECTION
                        WORLD POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS
                        Forecast and Context







                               The same  underlying  driving forces  impact all global environmental  issues:



                        population, level  of  consumption,  and choice of technologies.   While managing



                        population growth is not  part of EPA's mandate, its activities, both domestic  and



                        international, can have a catalytic impact on population dynamics, economic activity and



                        consumer behavior, and can contribute to significant reductions in both total global and



                        per capita environmental impacts.



                               The rate of world population growth has declined from a peak of 2.1 percent per



                        year in the early 1960's to  1.3 percent today.1  Even at this reduced rate, total global



                        population size will continue to increase substantially for  several  decades  because the



                        growth is occurring from such a large  base.  Between now and the year 2025, population



                        is likely to increase as much as it did from the beginning of human history to World War



                        II.2  By then, the world is expected to have nearly  8 billion people.  Almost all of this



                        growth will occur in developing nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America, with most of



                        the new population living in urban areas. The global urban population is projected to



                        increase from 2.6 billion in  1995 to over 4.5 billion in 2025.3



                               Rapid  population  growth,   unprecedented rates  of  urbanization, and  the



                        proliferation of megacities  with populations  exceeding 10  million will  challenge the



                        management capabilities of many developing  nations.   Growth will put enormous



                        pressures on water supplies, agricultural soils, forests, and  other renewable resources.



                        While the average  age of populations in  the Third World is falling, longer life spans in



                        much of  the Western industrialized world  are leading to an aging population  and



                        increased demands on natural resources.



                               Problems of water and air pollution, and disposal of sewage and solid wastes, will



                        inevitably  be  severe  in  rapidly  expanding  urban agglomerations.   Environmental

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page  12
       SECTION III	WORLD POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS







                        conditions, in turn, influence health.  Poor environmental quality is already estimated to



                        be directly responsible for about 25 percent of all preventable ill health in the world today,



                        with diarrhea and acute respiratory infections heading the list.4



                                The  problems  are  not restricted  to areas beyond our borders.   For example,



                        Southeast Florida,  near  the sensitive  Everglades ecosystem,  is  already showing



                        environmental  stress associated with rapidly expanding urban areas. The University of



                        Florida estimates that the populations of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties



                        will increase by more than 2 million from the current levels of approximately 5 million.



                                One  challenge  related  to population growth stands out from all others: fostering



                        sustainable development at the global level, while fostering needed economic expansion in the



                        world's poorer nations. There is now widespread agreement that sustainable development



                        is the key to  stabilizing population growth. Since the 1994 International Conference on



                        Population and Development in Cairo,  a global consensus has emerged that the best



                        strategy for reducing fertility rates is to empower women, expand economic opportunity,



                        reduce poverty, and increase the availability of education and health care.



                                Sustainable development is also essential for reducing social unrest and the danger



                        of international terrorism.  No mixture of conditions could be more combustible than



                        rapidly expanding numbers  of restless young people living in poverty without opportunities



                        for improvement. Constant exposure to  global media images  of affluent lifestyles and



                        ideologies that preach hatred against America increase their hopelessness and anger.



                                Development is  essential, but development  along the pattern of the  past is



                        impossible. If billions  more people try to move toward U.S. per capita rates of fossil fuel



                        consumption, resource use, and waste generation,  it would be environmentally disastrous



                        and fundamentally unsustainable. As a result, the United States has a special responsibility



                        to help create a new  model for development -  one with minimal environmental impacts.



                        As a world leader and the largest consumer of the world's resources, the United States has



                        the capacity and responsibility  to help other nations protect the environment. Pioneering



                        new approaches to sustainable development and sharing new environmental technology



                        may well be our greatest  contributions toward  the future.

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      THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA             SECTION
             Desired State

                    +     Global and regional populations are stabilized at levels that allow us to live
                          within our global means without undermining the ecological foundations
                          on which our economies are built.

                    +     Poor nations  and disenfranchised populations  within  nations  have
                          equitable access to resources needed for rapid development, job creation,
                          and  investment in education and health care.

                    +     Environmental  impacts per unit of Gross National Product (GNP) are
                          reduced  sharply  by  environmentally  superior technologies   and
                          development strategies that simultaneously meet basic human needs and
                          protect the environment.

             Opportunities for EPA

                    Elevate EPA's International Role.  To do so effectively, EPA needs to
             have the ability  to provide credible information on the long-term implications of
             population growth,  nationally,  as well as internationally.  EPA should select and  analyze
             population data to help decision-makers understand the impacts.

                    Raise   Awareness  of  the  Importance   of   Sustainable
             Development.  When interacting with other parts of the federal government, raise
             awareness of the importance of achieving rapid, sustainable development in poor  nations
             with high population growth rates. To the greatest extent possible, the United States must
             lead by example, encouraging sustainable development at home.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50  PM  Page  14
      SECTION III	WORLD POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS






                              Support  Global  Sustainable  Development  Networks.   In



                       cooperation with the United Nations Environment Programme  (UNEP)  and other



                       international organizations,  provide  support for global  networks  of Third World



                       development  experts, environmental  protection  officials,  urban  planners, and



                       environmentalists.







                              Facilitate Export of Environmentally Superior Technologies.



                       Help stimulate  and organize  inter-governmental efforts  to  export  environmentally



                       superior technologies and environmental management methods that reduce  impacts of



                       population  growth.  Revitalize  the  Environmental Trade Work Group  (ETWG),



                       composed of 19 agency heads, which was established to organize  more effective trade



                       promotion in exporting environmental technologies. The ETWG is co-chaired by EPA



                       and the Department of Commerce and is a  subgroup of the Trade  Promotion



                       Coordination Committee (TPCC).







                              Build  Relationships  with  Developing Countries.  EPA offices



                       currently work with sister areas in  different parts of the world. Explore what would be



                       needed to target this coverage more effectively.  Establish an  "Envirocorps"  -  an



                       environmental   Peace  Corps  -  where  citizens with  professional  experience  in



                       environmental protection and different areas of environmental technology are trained and



                       paid to work in developing nations.   EPA and the Peace Corps can collaborate more



                       closely on international environmental projects.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50  PM  Page 15
       THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA              SECTION
              NATURAL  RESOURCES







                     Environmental  issues arise primarily  around the  use of natural resources,



              including energy, water, land, food, and wildlife. The principles for managing natural



              resources in a sustainable way are similar across all these areas. Key principles include:







              Efficiency. Decrease environmental impacts per unit of gross national product (GNP)



              by using natural resources more efficiently.  Increasing resource efficiency is  virtually



              synonymous with cutting waste because pollution  represents  wasted materials being



              released into the environment.







              Industrial Ecology. Using nature to model our technical systems,  close the loops of



              material flows by reusing or reconfiguring the material outputs of each process into inputs



              for other purposes.







              Appropriate  Use of Renewable  Resources. With the exception of energy



              which is constantly supplanted by solar radiation, all terrestrial natural resource systems



              are closed.  These systems have no external sources to replenish raw material  supplies.



              Emphasize the use of  renewable  resources that nature will continue to provide  and



              replenish indefinitely.   Keep  renewable  resource  use at,  or  below, the  maximum



              sustainable yield to maintain  the stock from which the flow of resources derives.







              Social Weil-Being.  In  making decisions about sources of energy, water  supplies,



              food, and other important issues,  strive to understand what approach will most likely



              improve the  social well-being of everyone, especially those who  have suffered injustices,



              poverty, and other barriers to achieving their potential.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page 16
       SECTION III	NATURAL RESOURCES







                        Sustainable Development.  Use natural resources in a way that meets today's



                        needs without degrading those resources and making it difficult for future generations to



                        meet  their needs.   Find solutions to natural resource issues that  are  simultaneously



                        beneficial  for economic development, the environment,  and social well-being. Only



                        solutions that work on all three levels will lead to the kind of future we want to create.
                        NATURAL RESOURCES  - ENERGY
                        Forecast and Context







                               The world is not facing an energy supply crisis, but rather an energy management



                        problem. The United States alone has coal reserves that could last for centuries and, more



                        importantly, abundant solar radiation will be available for billions of years. The primary



                        challenge today is  energy  management:  to reduce the carbon intensity of the energy



                        economy and to facilitate  the conversion to  renewable sources and hydrogen storage.



                        Decarbonization is necessary to limit environmental impacts, from multi-pollutant air



                        emissions to global climate change.5  The key barrier to decarbonization is not economic



                        or technological - it is the  lingering misconception that carbon emission limits lead to a



                        reduction in  economic growth.  The evidence is conclusive that  carbon  and economic



                        output can be decoupled.6



                               Increasing energy efficiency is the fastest and cheapest decarbonization strategy.



                        In the United States, producing  one unit of gross domestic product (GDP) requires less



                        than one-fifth as much energy as it did two centuries ago.7 Just between 1973 and 1986,



                        increasing energy efficiency made it possible for the GDP to grow by 35  percent with zero



                        growth in energy consumption.8 Thanks to advancing technology, much larger - and



                        highly profitable -  opportunities are available for increasing efficiency further.



                               Changing energy sources constitutes the other principal decarbonization strategy.



                        Industrial nations have already gone through three historic waves of decarbonization.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page 17
      THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA	SECTION






              Coal released one-fifth  to one-tenth of the carbon per unit of energy of the wood it



              displaced as the dominant fossil fuel.9  By the 1960's, a lower carbon and more portable



              fossil fuel, oil, displaced coal as the dominant energy source, marking the second wave of



              decarbonization.10 Now, natural gas, the cleanest fossil fuel, whose combustion releases



              the  least carbon  dioxide, is  ascending  toward a  dominant  role.   Decarbonization is



              arguably the most fundamental trend in  the evolution of the energy system.11



                    Now a fourth wave of decarbonization may be appearing on the horizon with the



              emergence of hydrogen-based energy technologies, such as fuel cells.  Initially derived



              from natural gas,  and possibly from ultra-clean coal technology, hydrogen will eventually



              be produced by  splitting water  into hydrogen and  oxygen using renewable energy.



              Moving toward a hydrogen economy would tend to take the energy system away from



              large scale generating  technologies toward virtual utilities composed of networks of



              microturbines,  solar  cells,  fuel cells, and other  micropower  technologies.  This



              environmentally benign image of the energy future is being advocated by leaders of some



              of the world's largest energy  companies, such as Royal Dutch Shell, which has created



              Shell Hydrogen, and BP, which now stands for "Beyond Petroleum."







              Desired State







                    +      Energy is used with high efficiency in buildings, transportation, industry



                            and consumer products.







                    +      Major reductions are achieved in the amount  of waste (pollution) going



                            into the  environment from the production and consumption of energy.







                    +      Decarbonization  continues  through  increasing  energy efficiency and



                            changing energy sources.







                    +      Renewable energy is ultimately the primary energy  source, forming the



                            basis for a completely carbon-free, renewable hydrogen economy.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page 18
      SECTION III	NATURAL RESOURCES - ENERGY






                              +     Energy choices are approached as choices about how to make the world



                                    work for everyone over the long term - economically, environmentally,



                                    and socially.







                       Opportunities for  EPA







                              Encourage Total Accounting of Energy Technologies.  Foster



                       objective, rigorous comparative analyses of the full range of costs and benefits associated



                       with expanding  the use of different energy technologies.  Bring energy efficiency



                       improvements into the comparative analyses, along with the full range of energy supply



                       options. The analyses should look at cradle-to-grave and intergenerational costs and



                       benefits, including impacts on natural systems, human health, and social well-being.  The



                       assessments should consider the implications different options would have if they were



                       adopted, not only in the United States, but also by developing nations.  Some aspects of



                       this activity can appropriately be done within EPA.   Much of it would be best done in



                       cooperative relationships with other agencies and leading research institutions.







                              Utilize  the Clean Air Act State  Implementation Plans (SIPsf



                       Process  to Spur Investment in  Renewables and  Energy Efficiency.



                       Work in partnership with the Department of Energy (DOE) to aggressively break through



                       the barriers that inhibit full  crediting  of energy  efficiency  and  renewable energy



                       technologies in SIPs.  If EPA fully  credits  energy efficiency and renewable energy



                       programs  in  SIPs,  more capital  would  be channeled into  technologies that can



                       decarbonize the energy system over the long run, as well as produce immediate reductions



                       in a wide variety of air emissions.







                              Partner with the DOE on the New Freedom Car Project.  The



                       administration recently announced a new program to develop and promote hydrogen fuel



                       cell development. The Freedom Car program hopes  to have hydrogen  fuel cell vehicles



                       on the road within the next ten years.

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      THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA	SECTION






                    Support  Innovative  Research  on   Sequestering  Carbon



             Dioxide.   A number of innovative concepts  for using fossil fuels with minimum



             climatic harm have yet to receive serious attention.  For example, academic researchers



             have suggested the possibility of reforming natural gas into hydrogen at the wellhead and



             re-injecting  the carbon dioxide produced in this process  into the geological formation



             from which  the gas  was taken.  EPA should scan  for other innovative sequestration



             concepts and ensure that they receive attention in other agencies and the private sector.







                    Expand the Energy Star Program.  Expand the highly successful and



             cost-effective Energy  Star program to other sectors, such as grocery stores and the health



             care industry.  Partner with DOE to develop energy efficiency programs relevant to these



             new sectors.







                    Establish a Green Vehicle Labeling Program.  The concept of green



             labeling for vehicles has been developed and discussed in the Green Vehicle Guide (EPA,



             Mobile  Sources).  Putting this concept into practice would  give consumers better



             information  on vehicle fuel efficiency,  as  well  as  new information on  emissions,



             manufacturing toxins, etc.







                    Promote  Market-Oriented  Measures  for  Reducing  Global



             Warming.  Within the executive branch and in interactions with Congress, promote



             the adoption of market-oriented policy measures that  reduce global warming by



             increasing energy efficiency.







                    Encourage Research  on  Hydrogen as  an  Energy Carrier.



             Encourage research and development on hydrogen as an energy carrier and energy storage



             medium. Ensure that environmental issues related to hydrogen are identified at the front



             end, so that potential problems are avoided and an appropriate federal regulatory role is



             developed (e.g., Design for Environment in fuel cell production, fuel cell recycling and



             disposal, and pipeline issues).

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       SECTION III	NATURAL RESOURCES - ENERGY







                               Use   Publicly  Owned  Sewage   Plants  to   Demonstrate



                        Hydrogen  Technologies. Create demonstration projects with major methane



                        sources, such  as  publicly  owned wastewater treatment plants (sewage plants), to



                        demonstrate methane-to-hydrogen conversion and  the  use of hydrogen technologies.



                        Assess regulatory and economic constraints that need to be overcome.  Currently, every



                        wastewater treatment plant generates  considerable quantities  of methane, a major



                        greenhouse gas. Many use this methane for heating digestion process units during winter



                        months, but 80 percent or more may be flared off in summer. Converting methane to



                        hydrogen  would allow these plants  to  generate a substantial  amount of  their  own



                        electricity on-site year-round.
                        NATURAL  RESOURCES - WATER
                        Forecast  and Context







                               Water is the world's most important natural resource.  It is essential for human



                        and ecosystem health and for the production of all ecosystem goods and services.  It is the



                        primary input to agriculture and the most widely used resource in industrial processes. It



                        has aesthetic, cultural and recreational value. It is also the natural resource where the most



                        severe environmental problems occur the soonest.



                               Today, 2.3 billion people live in water-stressed countries where there are growing



                        conflicts between different users of water.12  Of this group, 1.7  billion live in areas of real



                        water scarcity, where drought and water diversions for agriculture and industry limit the



                        amount of water available to meet people's basic needs.13 In the quest for more water,



                        many of the major aquifers around the world are being drained at rates that exceed their



                        natural  recharge rates. By  2025, an estimated 2.7 billion people will live in areas



                        experiencing severe water scarcity, creating a potential for regional conflicts over water



                        rights in the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and large parts of Asia.14 Even where water

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page 21
       THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA	SECTION







              is not scarce, it is often contaminated.  Globally, only about 10 percent of all wastewater



              is treated  before  it enters  rivers and  other  bodies of water.15  On every continent,



              groundwater,  as well as surface water, is being contaminated and rising sea levels from



              global warming threaten further contamination.  As populations and economies grow,



              water use on the pattern of the past will prove unsustainable and  "water efficiency" will



              become as important a concept as energy efficiency.



                     The United States, as a whole, does not yet face widespread, serious water shortage



              problems.  However, the warning signs  are clear:  the massive Ogallala aquifer has been



              severely depleted, Great Lakes water elevations are at their lowest levels in  decades, the



              California agricultural  economy consumes far more water for irrigation purposes than can



              be sustained  over the long  term, and  rapid urbanization  of  rural  and previously



              undeveloped regions (e.g., Las Vegas) is proceeding without consideration of water supply



              concerns.   Disruptions  in  the  hydrological  cycle  due to global warming or other



              meteorological factors may  make drought conditions more common over the  decades



              ahead, and the increased draw down of aquifers may limit development in some areas, and



              force major agricultural management changes in others.  Moreover, the draw down of



              deep aquifers brings water  with higher salt concentrations to the surface, potentially



              exposing croplands to  dust-bowl vulnerabilities. Major water management issues already



              impacting the  United  States  include  maintaining and  improving the  wastewater



              infrastructure to avoid further water contamination.



                     Disputes over  water management  are taking place in the arid Southwest and



              elsewhere in the United States. Georgia, Alabama and Florida have been fighting for years



              over two river systems that give life to the Southeast.  In  1997, they decided to  form an



              interstate compact to develop an agreement on how the rivers should be used. But after



              three years, five extensions and at least $20 million, there's no agreement in  sight.



                     Much of the nation's  infrastructure for  drinking  water,  wastewater,  and



              stormwater is aging.   Increased  demand on public water systems, caused by a growing



              population, will  make it difficult to maintain potable water quality standards.  Many



              system managers are not budgeting for, nor do they have sufficient access  to funds, to

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EPA NACEPT  Pub Final  11/15/02   11:50 PM  Page 22
       SECTION III	NATURAL RESOURCES - WATER







                         make the investments in infrastructure maintenance that are likely to be necessary.  In



                         agriculture, lack of investment in irrigation infrastructure is causing growing problems of



                         unnecessary water loss from canal leakage, infiltration, and salinization. New investments



                         are required in "precision agriculture" systems that apply only as much water (and other



                         inputs) as needed, when needed. Water subsidies that contribute to excessive and wasteful



                         use magnify expenditures needed for infrastructure.



                                Despite significant  improvements in water  quality, one-fifth of freshwater fish



                         stocks  are still  considered  vulnerable or endangered because of pollution or habitat



                         disruption.16   Perhaps the  most serious problem  is groundwater  contamination  by



                         nitrates, pesticides, petrochemicals, chlorinated solvents, radioactive wastes, saltwater, and



                         heavy metals. Groundwater that becomes polluted tends to stay polluted for a very long



                         time; the average residence time for groundwater is 1,400 years, as opposed to 16 days for
                         river water.17
                                In the United  States,  water contamination from point sources has decreased



                         dramatically over the 30-year life of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act.  Addressing



                         remaining water quality issues, such as contamination from pharmaceuticals, antibiotics,



                         food additives and pesticides,  will require watershed-based approaches that include all



                         contributors: traditional point sources, as well as non-point sources, including agriculture,



                         silviculture, airborne deposition, and stormwater runoff.  Innovations will be needed in



                         environmentally advanced agriculture, closed-loop production and consumption systems,



                         and green chemistry to eliminate the use of persistent toxic chemicals.







                         Desired  State







                                +     There is sufficient  usable water to meet population needs in the United



                                       States and around the world.







                                +     Technologies for achieving higher water efficiency are universally adopted



                                       in agriculture, industry and residential use.

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      THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA	SECTION






                    +     Water rights issues are fairly mediated, avoiding conflicts over access to



                           water.







                    +     Surface water and groundwater are protected from contamination.







                    +     Water is priced at its true cost to reduce wasteful use.







             Opportunities  for EPA







                    Develop a Holistic Approach to Water and the Environment.



             Create a water task force with representatives from several offices in EPA, other federal



             agencies, and external stakeholders to take a more holistic look at water policy and the



             environment.  Identify major watersheds  across the country for specific improvement.



             Examine a broad range of issues, from aquifer depletion  and contamination to water



             efficiency and the level of investment needed to maintain aging water  infrastructure.



             Examine potential environmental implications of major water policy options.  Make



             recommendations for the integration of water quality objectives at different levels into a



             single coherent package.



                    While there has been significant progress in adopting a more holistic approach to



             managing water resources over  the last decade, existing statutory authorities make it



             difficult to run programs on a watershed basis.  EPA's Office of Water is working to better



             integrate its authorities under the Clean Water Act and the Safe Drinking Water Act.







                    Integrate Water Efficiency with Water  Quality  Standards.



             Integrate water use efficiency and appropriate reuse into water quality standards and other



             environmental regulations.  A  number of current regulatory programs are based on



             achieving technical standards measured by concentration of pollutants per unit of water.



             Increased water efficiency goals  conflict with these  concentration-based regulatory



             standards.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page 24
      SECTION III	NATURAL RESOURCES - WATER

                              Support  an  Effective  Market Environment  to  Minimize
                       Generating Hazardous Wastes. Sixty percent of U.S. hazardous liquid waste -
                       34 billion liters of solvents, heavy metals and radioactive materials - is injected into deep
                       groundwater around the country by  means of injection wells. EPA should assess
                       opportunities  to  eliminate  generating  all  hazardous  waste  through  pollution
                       prevention/source reduction  (P2) and through reprocessing/reuse; identify the technical,
                       regulatory and economic barriers to P2 and reuse; and encourage a market environment
                       in which these beneficial practices become the preferred business option.

                              Redouble Efforts to Effectively Include Non-Point Sources in
                       Water Management Programs.  Enhance EPA's capacity to monitor, model and
                       mitigate  non-point  source contributions  to  water contamination  and overall
                       environmental degradation.  Develop better models for estimating  adverse  health and
                       economic impacts  of non-point pollution.  Increase efforts  to  educate citizens  and
                       policymakers about the value of non-point source mitigation and to mobilize political and
                       technical support for federal, state, and local efforts to address the problem.
                       NATURAL RESOURCES  -
                       BIODIVERSITY,  LAND AND FOOD
                       Forecast and  Context

                              Biodiversity, land and food are deeply intertwined resource issues.  Habitat loss
                       and degradation are the leading causes of declining biodiversity, affecting 85 percent of all
                       threatened species.18  The leading cause of habitat loss is conversion of land for low-
                       density urban development, agriculture, and forest plantations. The other leading causes
                       of declining biodiversity are invasive  species and pollution, primarily from agricultural
                       runoff.

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       THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA	SECTION







                     A generation ago, some scientists looking at the loss of wetlands, rainforests, and



              other biologically rich areas feared that the total number of species could be cut by 25 to



              50 percent within a generation or two - the greatest decline in  biodiversity since the



              cataclysmic end of the age of the dinosaurs. While some field studies suggest that species



              are  more resilient than originally thought,19 other recent studies suggest that climate



              change may pose major new threats to biodiversity.  Rates of global warming may exceed



              the migration capabilities of many species, and progressive shifts in climatic conditions



              will cause losses of existing habitat and reductions in habitat patch size.20



                     Land conservation which encourages greater  density  in  urban and suburban



              development is one of  the most  important requirements for preserving  biodiversity.



              More clustered development reduces the entire footprint of an urban population. This is



              important everywhere, but especially crucial in areas like Southeastern Florida around the



              sensitive Everglades ecosystem where the population is projected to increase by 1.8 million



              between  2000 and 2020.21  Clustered development also maintains the recharge rate of



              groundwater aquifers, which is reduced by impervious urban surfaces. Urban infill and high



              density development patterns go hand-in-hand with establishing green spaces  that are off



              limits to development, and buying land for parks and open space to protect wildlife.



                     Limiting urban sprawl can also protect prime agricultural land.  For example, in



              California's Central Valley, where the population is expected to triple by 2040, cropland



              losses could be cut by 55 percent  simply by building 15  residential units per hectare,



              instead of the more typical 7 units.22 A denser urban environment also facilitates the use



              of mass transit, saves money on construction and upkeep of infrastructure of many kinds,



              provides  lower income people  easier access to jobs, and tends to promote a greater sense



              of community.



                     The spread of exotic species of plants, animals and diseases is now second only to



              habitat loss  as a cause of declining biodiversity and ecological destruction.  The slow



              migration of species into new  habitats  has always been a  part of nature, but  the



              globalization of commerce and travel has accelerated  this process so drastically that it



              deserves  to  be  considered a new phenomenon in the history of life.   Bioinvasion by



              invasive species needs to  be treated as a major new challenge, as important as regulating



              the pollution of land, water and air.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page 26
       SECTION III	NATURAL RESOURCES - BIODIVERSITY, LAND AND FOOD






                                Reducing  pollution,  especially the  agricultural  runoff from erosion,  over



                         fertilization, and heavy use of pesticides, is the other major requirement for preserving



                         biodiversity. One of the greatest challenges  ahead is  developing an environmentally



                         advanced agriculture that puts together the most environmentally sound and productive



                         methods  from  many different  areas  including:  conventional industrial  agriculture,



                         agricultural biotechnology,  precision agriculture, integrated pest management, organic



                         farming, and ecological engineering.







                         Desired  State







                                +     Maximum biodiversity is preserved,  and biodiversity is recognized and



                                       used as the primary indicator of "ecological health."







                                +     Land is conserved and used efficiently through urban infill, combined



                                       with the recycling  of land  and  increasing mass transit-oriented



                                       development patterns (e.g.,  brownfields development, smart growth



                                       initiatives, etc.).







                                +     Green  spaces  are  preserved  and  made off  limits to development.



                                       Infrastructure corridors are used in environmentally beneficial ways.







                                +     Movements of invasive species  are tracked and quickly controlled.







                                +     Environmentally advanced agricultural methods are developed and widely



                                       adopted.
                                       We are  able to produce sufficient  quantities  of healthy foods to feed



                                       ourselves and contribute to the world food supply. We are able to do this



                                       without degrading the  soil, polluting or overusing water supplies, or



                                       having other negative impacts that could  limit the  ability of  future



                                       generations to meet their own food needs.

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      THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA	SECTION







             Opportunities for EPA







                    Develop  Biodiversity  Indicators.   Use  biodiversity as a primary



             indicator of  ecological health.   Work with  the academic community and  other



             stakeholders to develop biodiversity indicators for different ecosystems, and utilize these



             indicators  in  setting ecological  health  objectives  and  in  developing ecosystem



             management strategies.







                    Develop   Natural  Resource  Damage  Assessment  as  a



             Management Tool.   Employ cost accounting concepts developed for the Natural



             Resource Damage Assessments (NRDA) and used in establishing Superfund liabilities for



             other purposes within EPA. Use these concepts preventatively - as management tools in



             environmental planning and permitting - not just for remediation after damage is done.







                    Expand Efforts to Control  Invasive Species. Significantly expand



             EPA's efforts and  coordination with  other  agencies to  monitor and  control  the



             introduction of non-native or invasive  species. For  example,  explore possible joint



             enforcement opportunities with  the  states, port authorities and the Coast Guard in



             restricting point-source discharge of water  ballast released by ships.  Explore potential



             roles related to land-based invasives, an area where  EPA is now doing virtually nothing.



             Play a leadership role on  this issue in the National Invasive Species Council and the



             Commission for Environmental Cooperation, which was  created by the environmental



             side accords to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).







                    Develop  Natural Resource Partnerships.   Continue  to develop



             partnerships and support  roles with state Departments of Natural Resources (DNRs),



             other federal agencies, tribes, local government agencies,  commerce and industry, and



             non-governmental organizations.  EPA has  not taken full  advantage  of opportunities to



             work with  these entities,  but  they  are the organizations with the  most hands-on

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page 28
      SECTION III	NATURAL RESOURCES - BIODIVERSITY, LAND AND FOOD






                        responsibilities for protecting wildlife and biodiversity.  Local and national non-profit



                        land conservation and land trust groups have helped protect more than 23 million acres



                        of land and water in the United States. EPA should encourage the transfer of technology



                        and innovations to these and other groups to facilitate better decision-making.







                               Sponsor Research on Benefits and  Costs of Higher Density



                        Development.   Sponsor research on the comparative costs and benefits of more



                        compact, mass  transit-oriented development patterns and conventional  low density



                        development.  Look at lifecycle economic costs and environmental impacts.  Identify the



                        cost accounting factors that have favored fringe development (e.g. not seeing the full costs



                        up front, tax and other policies that subsidize development on the fringe).  Include in this



                        analysis a discussion of non-traditional pollution, i.e., noise and light.







                               Use SEPs  to Encourage Land Conservation.  Expand the use of



                        Supplemental  Environmental Projects (SEPs) to encourage environmental  partnerships



                        for land preservation in urban areas.  A SEP is an environmental project that a violator of



                        environmental regulations agrees to perform as part of the  settlement of an enforcement



                        action.  Although the violator is  not legally required to perform a SEP, the monetary



                        penalty imposed on the violator will typically be reduced if the violator agrees to perform



                        an acceptable project.   Environmental  Restoration  and Protection, one of the main



                        categories of acceptable SEPs, allows for purchasing land for conservation programs.







                               Study Impacts Of Sea Level Rise. Initiate and coordinate an interagency



                        examination of the impacts of sea  level  rise on  U.S.  shorelines, wetlands, and other



                        affected ecosystems,  particularly in  the southeastern United States. The examination



                        should also assess impacts on aquaculture and other marine-related economic activities.

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      THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA	SECTION

                    Advocate a New Concept of "Environmentally Advanced
             Agriculture." Assume the role  of intergovernmental advocate for a new concept of
             environmentally advanced agriculture and work with the Department of Agriculture to
             develop the concept.   The agriculture community now tends to think in terms of a
             polarization between conventional  industrial agriculture and organic farming.  A new,
             non-ideological concept is needed that can be a framework for integrating the best ideas
             from precision agriculture, integrated pest management, and other areas.

                    Develop  a National  Strategy to Address the Public Health
             Impacts of Antibiotics,  Hormones and Other Additives in Food
             Production.  Review research on the use of antibiotics, hormones, and other additives
             in food production to assess  the  state of knowledge about how they pass into the
             environment and impacts they may  have on public health and other organisms. Identify
             gaps in understanding and formulate research agendas to address those gaps.  Coordinate
             with other agencies and research institutions to address those gaps and to develop a national
             strategy focusing on the public health impacts of additives in the nation's food supply.
             NATURAL RESOURCES - AIR

             Forecast and Context

                    Air quality improvement is one of the U.S. EPA's greatest achievements.  Few
             people appreciate how polluted our nation's air would be today if not for the success of
             the Clean Air Act. Yet a new, multi-pollutant approach will be needed to yield further
             improvements on emerging air quality issues such as: the continuing ozone problems in
             densely populated areas, the emergence of fine particulate matter as a health threat, the
             emissions from diffuse sources that are difficult to control and to regulate, air toxins, and
             the consequences of atmospheric interactions. Shifts to more environmentally advanced
             technologies, especially in energy generation and transportation, offer great promise.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page 30
       SECTION III	NATURAL RESOURCES -AIR







                               The possibility of having to expand the use of coal in conventional power



                        generation may pose severe  air quality problems.   This could happen for  electricity



                        generation if renewable technologies are not developed rapidly, or if the expansion of



                        nuclear power is rejected due to concerns for cost, waste disposal, safety and proliferation.



                        It could also happen if political instability in other countries threatens our access to oil.



                               The EPA  Science Advisory  Board has noted  the possibility of unanticipated



                        environmental problems related to the deposition of airborne contaminants on land and



                        water.  Many airborne chemicals are  more  harmful to  human  health and  ecological



                        systems when acting in the presence of other chemicals. As a result, the deposition and



                        accumulation of multiple chemicals over  time may lead to health and environmental



                        problems not anticipated by focusing primarily on air exposures.



                               Global warming is the greatest long-term, air-related  problem because climate



                        change will affect all other ecological systems.  The United States is the largest contributor



                        to this problem. With four percent of the world's population, we account for 24 percent



                        of total global emissions of greenhouse gases.23 In Kyoto, the  United States agreed to a



                        seven percent cut below 1990 levels by 2008-2012. However, we now stand at 13 percent



                        above 1990 levels - the highest of all major industrial nations.24 In addition to chemicals



                        that contribute to  climate change, there are a number of conventional and hazardous air



                        pollutants that require international attention and response.



                               From  the  perspective  of human health, indoor air quality may well pose  the



                        greatest environmental risk.25  A  number of studies over the past decade have used



                        portable monitoring equipment to track  where people actually experience  the largest



                        exposures to  different  toxic chemicals.  In the great majority  of cases, these exposures



                        occur inside  buildings.  While regulations have focused on  emissions to the outside



                        environment, exposures are occurring primarily in indoor environments. The exposures



                        come from offgassing from carpets and furniture, sunlight falling on plastics  and other



                        materials, construction products, cleaning products, office machines, mildew and molds,



                        and a variety of other sources. Indoor environments do not lend themselves well to



                        traditional command-and-control approaches, so policy innovation will be essential to



                        make major improvements in indoor air quality.

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      THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA              SECTION
             Desired State







                    +     Total exposure to air pollution from all sources does not adversely impact



                           public health, even for susceptible population segments.







                    +     Air quality does not have an adverse impact on the ecological health of



                           forests and other natural systems, or the economic value of land and



                           communities. Air throughout the nation is not contaminated by toxins,



                           criteria pollutants, or particulates.







                    +     A new ideal of "Healthy Buildings" is  motivating all companies and



                           government organizations whose work affects building construction and



                           furnishing to eliminate toxins from indoor environments.







             Opportunities for EPA







                    Develop a Multi-Pollutant Approach.  Develop an integrated, multi-



             pollutant approach  that  includes the  sources, the  chemistry, and processes  of



             contaminants. Compare the impacts and fate in common for many pollutants, studying



             and addressing them in a holistic way.







                    Re-establish    an   Advanced   Automotive    Technology



             Partnership.  As the  Freedom Car initiative moves ahead  to the challenge of using



             hydrogen as a mobility fuel, we should not neglect the research problems that still remain



             related to the more near-term deployment of hydrogen  vehicles. The Partnership for a



             New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV)  between government  and automakers focused



             largely on developing cleaner, more fuel-efficient electric hybrid vehicles.  In the PNGV



             program, all U.S. automakers were scheduled to begin producing fuel-efficient electric



             hybrids within the next few years. However, there are still considerable advanced research

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50  PM  Page 32
      SECTION III	NATURAL RESOURCES -AIR






                       problems to solve.  The private-public partnership should be re-established to develop



                       cost-effective technologies for large scale deployment of advanced fuel-efficient personal



                       vehicles by the end of the decade.  Key areas for near-term cooperation include:  advanced



                       internal  combustion engines, lightweight body materials, and other aspects of ultra-



                       efficient vehicle design.







                               Continue  to  Support  Research  and  Development  for



                       Advanced Transit, Including Commercial Trucks.  Explore the potential



                       for a partnership with the Department of Transportation (DOT) to study transportation



                       efficiency alternatives, including  future point-to-point on-demand transportation, and



                       renewable energy powered light  rail and high speed inter-urban systems.  The 21st



                       Century Truck Partnership is the  private-public partnership which develops and deploys



                       the technologies necessary for safe, clean and efficient commercial trucks and buses. Key



                       areas  for advances include:  clean  and  highly efficient engines,  fuel cells,  hybrid



                       powertrains, lightweight materials, and ultra-efficient aerodynamic designs.







                               Support Research on Ultra-Clean Coal Technology.  Partner with



                       DOE  to explore  the feasibility of "ultra-clean  coal technology"  that  could allow



                       significantly greater coal use without  incurring climatic harm. For example, one concept



                       that has been suggested but not yet explored is to extract hydrogen from coal for use in



                       fuel cells, and to sequester CO2 and  other waste gases released in the process.







                               Use    Voluntary    Cooperation    to    Address    Indoor



                       Environmental Quality.   Increase awareness and expand EPA's role related to



                       indoor  air and the indoor environment.  The EPA study, Healthy  Buildings, Healthy



                       People, promotes voluntary initiatives to increase public information about construction



                       materials, furniture, carpets, and cleaning chemicals.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50  PM  Page 33
       THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA              SECTION
              SCIENCE AND  TECHNOLOGY







              Forecast and Context







                     Today's rapid pace of scientific discovery and technological change will likely



              accelerate. We are still  near the beginning of multiple revolutions in information and



              communications, biotechnology  and genomics, materials  and manufacturing, energy



              efficiency and production, transportation, construction, and agriculture.  Because these



              developments interact, advances in one area stimulate progress in others. The result is a



              dramatic technological acceleration.



                     This acceleration will bring new capabilities for identifying pollutants and better



              science for assessing risks.  The U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency (EPA) needs to



              continually improve the science behind its risk assessments.  In this and other endeavors,



              EPA will be significantly challenged to keep up with positive developments in areas such



              as:  early  biological markers of  degradation,  risk  analysis  for  different  genetic



              subpopulations, sensor  technology, and  geo-spatial technologies  for  environmental



              intelligence. The manufacturing of goods and services will become increasingly boutique,



              while technological acceleration will pose difficult problems.  New chemicals and products



              will be developed  faster than  they  can be  tested.  There  will  be  unanticipated



              environmental impacts  of technologies  thought to be benign, and new environmental



              issues   around  genetic  engineering,  including concerns for biological  terrorism.



              Technology will also evolve faster than accompanying legal,  moral, ethical  and economic



              frameworks.



                     Nanotechnology, the  capability  to manipulate things at  the molecular,  and



              eventually the atomic level, will fundamentally change materials science.  In chemistry,



              designer enzymes will allow biological reactors to manufacture a myriad  of substances,



              from fibers to  pharmaceuticals,  with  production  capacities  far greater than today's

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50  PM  Page 34
       SECTION III	SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY







                        chemical catalysis.  In biology and medicine, genetic construction will allow the repair of



                        defective genes, as well as the creation of new DNA sequences, resulting in entirely new



                        genetic characteristics.  In environmental science, highly efficient microorganisms and



                        smart membranes designed to filter out specific compounds and metals will enable ever



                        greater pollutant removal efficiencies. And in electro-engineering, miniaturization will



                        continue nearly unabated to the level at which quantum mechanical effects  become



                        dominant.



                               The good news is that these new technologies and production  processes can



                        sharply reduce environmental impacts.  Such advances may result in developing nations



                        becoming more affluent without degrading their environments. These technologies will



                        be based on improving resource efficiency, closing the loops of materials flows, and other



                        Design for the Environment strategies. We already know how to double the efficiency of



                        electric motors, triple the efficiency of lights, automobiles and most household appliances,



                        and increase the efficiency of buildings by factors ranging from two to  ten. In the same



                        way, improvements  in durability, recycling, minimum materials design, and elimination



                        of waste can enable  far less manufacturing to produce the same desired flow of products



                        and services. This is why the European  Union recently adopted the goal of a fourfold



                        ("Factor Four")  gain  in  resource  productivity.  The  Organization for Economic



                        Cooperation and Development (OECD)  Environment Ministers, the government  of



                        Sweden, and a number of distinguished industrial and academic leaders in Europe and



                        Japan have gone further to advocate a Factor Ten goal for 2050.



                               Today's best practice engineering incorporates environmental considerations from



                        the outset into the  basic design and  redesign of products, processes, and  technical and



                        management systems.  An  emerging  field of green  chemistry is  developing chemical



                        technologies  that  minimize  or eliminate  hazardous  substances  during the  design,



                        manufacture, and use of chemical products and processes.  The most advanced industrial



                        designs are increasingly closing the loops of materials flows, reusing materials or turning



                        the waste of one process into feedstock for another.  DuPont, for example, recycles nearly



                        a billion dollars of used photographic film per year using a process called reverse logistics.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM   Page 35
       THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA	SECTION






              This kind of approach may ultimately lead us to eliminate the entire concept of waste and



              treat pollution as a design failure.  Emissions will be regarded as unsaleable production.



              The motto of businesses developing the most advanced production systems is, "If we can't



              sell it, we shouldn't produce it - we should design it out."



                     These new generations of environmentally advanced technologies are, or soon will



              be,  practical  from both  an engineering and economic  perspective.  But,  they must



              overcome many barriers, from  lack of knowledge among investors to environmental



              regulations that thwart innovation. Speeding the emergence of these technologies is a



              fundamental environmental and business challenge today.



                     Despite  the  impressive gains in knowledge  and technology, environmental



              decision-makers  almost  always  face  uncertainty in terms   of available  data,   its



              interpretation, and the likely impact of alternative responses to collection and evaluation.



              In an  effort  to address this paralysis by analysis, some governments have embraced a



              concept referred to as the "precautionary principle."  As invoked in the Rio Declaration



              on Environment and Development, the precautionary principle states, "Where there are



              threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack  of scientific certainty shall not be used as a



              reason for postponing cost-effective measures  to prevent environmental degradation."



              The challenge lies in  defining threats in a way that is protective but not prohibitive.  As



              noted earlier, improving the quality of analytical and  scientific  tools used in EPA risk



              assessments will lead to more informed decision-making.







              Desired State







                     +      Design for the Environment is a universal  practice.  People working  in



                            applied science,  technological development  and  engineering have



                            environmental objectives in mind from  the outset of their work.







                     +      Environmentally advanced technologies in all areas of the economy utilize



                            energy and  materials efficiently  and  use closed loop processes  that



                            eliminate the concept of waste.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02   11:50 PM  Page 36
       SECTION III	SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY






                               +      Good science is  the  basis for  justifying and  adjusting environmental



                                      standards.  EPA is able not only to keep up with developments in science



                                      and technology, but also to directly facilitate scientific and technological



                                      innovations that help it effectively carry out its mission.







                        Opportunities for EPA







                               Create  Partnerships  for Energy Efficiency.  Collaborate with the



                        DOE to leverage investments in  energy efficiency from the nation's largest capital pools



                        by creating partnerships with sectors neither  organization has traditionally engaged.



                        Among them are: the financial community, property-casualty insurance industry, bonding



                        industry, community development sector, commercial leasing  sector, and the group of



                        stakeholders investing in Clean  Air Act compliance. Using Cooperative Research  and



                        Development  Agreements, work  with these  sectors to quantify and verify the economic



                        benefits of energy efficiency in terms credible to  industry leaders. Technology verification



                        would give  industry greater confidence in the  benefits of energy efficiency, leading to



                        greater investments as verified technologies are mainstreamed into each industry's capital



                        outlays and customer incentive structures.







                               Develop  New Regulatory  Relief  Strategies  to Encourage



                        Technological  Innovation.   Review EPA program areas to  assess  emerging



                        technological innovations that involve major improvements in resource efficiency, closed



                        loop processes, green chemistry and other Design for the Environment  approaches.



                        Develop new programs, faster and less cumbersome than Project XL, that demonstrate the



                        environmental performance of innovative technologies,  while  rewarding superior



                        environmental performance with  regulatory relief and flexibility.   Mandate  careful



                        monitoring of environmental impacts and regulatory action within a reasonable period of



                        time if problems  arise.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page 37
      THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA	SECTION






                    Marshal Sound Science to Develop and  Defend Standards.



             Develop  greater scientific capacity for developing  realistic, protective environmental



             performance  standards and the legal capacity  for supporting states, tribes and local



             officials in defending the environmental standards they are mandated to enforce. Create



             a one-stop help desk where state, tribal and local officials can  locate EPA scientific and



             legal expertise.







                    Lead by Example.   Work  systematically to make EPA facilities  and



             operations a model of technologies and practices that need to come into widespread use.



             For example, upgrade EPA facilities  with  more efficient lighting, glazing, and other



             building systems wherever feasible. Make choices of carpets, furniture, cleaning products,



             office machines  and  other products on  the basis of energy  efficiency  and indoor



             environmental quality. Use hybrid fuel electric vehicles and fuel cell powered vehicles as



             they become available.







                    Promote  Emerging Developments  in  Biotechnology and



             Nanotechnology.  Support ongoing environmental scanning to identify emerging



             developments in biotechnology and nanotechnology. The scan should identify potential



             dangers that may need to be addressed by policy actions, as well as developments with



             high potential for facilitating environmental improvement.  Examples include: emerging



             bioremediation methods, biotechnology approaches to hydrogen production, and  bio-



             industrial processes that can  replace  the use of toxic chemicals and  inherently dirty



             combustion processes. EPA should also explore and facilitate developing environmental



             monitoring technologies - from real time pollutant sensors to DNA micro arrays - for



             assessing human and ecological health.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page 38

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02   11:50 PM  Page  39
      THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA              SECTION
              INFORMATION  MANAGEMENT AND  ACCESS
              Forecast and Context







                    Information - coupled with public education and access - is central for aligning



              the efficiency of markets with environmental protection. Greater use of market-based



              strategies  and voluntary agreements require informed involvement by all participants.



              Informed involvement requires access to high quality information. We will find it much



              easier to reach agreement on solutions if all stakeholders have access to information they



              trust about key factors such as:







                    +      Changes in the state of the environment



                    +      Location and extent of environmental hazards



                    +      Risks to human health and ecosystems



                    +      Policies, programs, and institutional responsibilities for environmental



                            protection



                    +      Environmental performance of corporations and public institutions



                    +      Knowledge and technical innovations for solving environmental problems



                    +      Product evaluations for making environmentally sound purchasing choices







                    Better coordination  is needed  to  integrate information from  many sources.



              Where  appropriate,  information needs to  be presented  in  ways that are easy to



              understand,  with  technical terms  minimized  or  clearly explained. Where feasible,



              organizing information by watershed or by community or zip code-specific formats can



              make it more useful to citizens.  Greater support for environmental education can help



              the  public  understand  environmental issues  and  interpret available  information.



              Providing vital information in a variety of other languages, as well as English, can help



              more citizens gain access.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM   Page 40
       SECTION III	INFORMATION MANAGEMENT AND ACCESS







                               Technological progress  will create  dramatic new capabilities for information



                        collection and management in future generations. For example, improved remote sensing



                        using high spatial and  spectral  resolution  satellites, airborne, and  in-situ  observation



                        systems will  allow for near real time monitoring  of a wide variety of environmental



                        problems.  This information can  be fed  into automated change-detection  decision



                        support systems to provide alerts to both regulators and the regulated community. The



                        rapid convergence  of advancing geospatial information  systems  (GIS),  visualization



                        products  and  Internet capabilities will revolutionize  the  display  of environmental



                        information.  Advances  toward  miniaturized,  ultra-sensitive, inexpensive sensor



                        technologies  will  allow communities,  businesses,  and even individuals to  monitor



                        exposures.  In the design of some environmental intelligence systems, a balance will need



                        to be found between the advantages of completely open access and a need to block access



                        to information that could be used to carry out acts of environmental terrorism.



                               New technical capabilities will  empower non-governmental organizations, as well



                        as governments and corporations. Global Forest Watch, an international network of local



                        forest protection groups  organized by  the World Resources  Institute,  suggests the



                        possibilities ahead.  Local groups linked by the Internet and  a common data-gathering



                        format will eventually monitor all of the world's remaining old growth forests, recording



                        on digital maps any illegal cutting, burning, or other violations of forest leases.  This



                        information will be posted on the Internet.



                               Better and more widely available information  changes behaviors.  For example,



                        the disclosures of toxic releases under the Emergency Planning and Community Right to



                        Know Act quickly led to voluntary reductions - more than 40 percent in the  first five



                        years.26  The  ultimate goal of improving information management and access is simple,



                        yet profound.  The better information we have about the environment, the better basis



                        we will have  for wise  decision-making.  The more information we have about the



                        environmental behavior of all our institutions, the more incentives there will be for



                        environmental responsibility.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page 41
      THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA              SECTION
             Desired  State







                    +     All stakeholders have easy access to accurate, understandable information



                           necessary for making informed environmental decisions.







                    +     Environmental information is effectively used for decision-making and



                           performance management.







                    +     Environmental information is fully integrated and efficiently managed,



                           and is seamlessly exchanged among all stakeholders.







                    +     Environmental indicators are fully developed as the primary gauge of



                           system health, and are effectively integrated  with other environmental



                           information.







             Opportunities  for EPA







                    Expand EPA'S Information Role.  Focus EPA efforts far more strongly



             on environmental education and disseminating information to the general public and



             other stakeholders. Discuss priorities for improving information management and access



             with a wide  range of stakeholders. Build on current practices with proven effectiveness.



             For example:







                    +     EPA's recently announced Environmental Indicators Initiative.







                    +     The Technical Assistance Grant process at Superfund sites is an effective



                           model of working with the public to share information.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page  42
      SECTION III	INFORMATION MANAGEMENT AND ACCESS






                              +     ENVIROMAPPER, which offers information on air and water emissions,



                                     and facilities  in and out of compliance, could  be  made  much more



                                     accessible and user friendly to people outside EPA.







                              +     Expand community information access programs, such as Windows to the



                                     Environment,  to invite the public to participate  in  the collection  and



                                     analysis of real time information.







                              Invest  in  Geospatial   Technologies.   Incorporate  geospatial



                       technologies into EPA's regulatory, rulemaking, and compliance procedures. As part of



                       this  effort, develop a cross-Agency  policy to embrace performance-based equivalent



                       measurement technologies. EPA has completed a year and one-half long study of GIS,



                       GPS, remote sensing  and visualization tools for monitoring, measuring and mapping



                       environmental impacts.  Currently, EPA is assessing where these technologies can help



                       business sectors. As this review process is completed, EPA should develop a blueprint for



                       bringing these technologies into full use.







                              Improve   Information  Coordination.  Expand  EPA's  ongoing



                       information coordination role, engaging state, tribal  and local  regulators and other



                       entities involved in environmental monitoring and incorporate their information into



                       unified databases.  EPA  should also expand its programs that  standardize and share



                       environmental data with other nations and multilateral  institutions.







                              Monitor  Innovations  in  Sensing Technology.    Monitor fast-



                       moving developments in  sensor technology (biosensors, chemical noses, micro electro-



                       mechanical systems (MEMS), nanomaterial-based sensors, etc.)  that promise  to make



                       inexpensive,  miniaturized,  ultra-sensitive  sensors  widely available  for detecting



                       environmental contaminants.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02   11:50 PM  Page 43
      THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA	SECTION







                    Perfect  Integrated Monitoring  Strategies.    Concurrent  with



             innovations in sensing technology, EPA should promote the development and testing of



             integrated  monitoring strategies  that allow "total human exposure"  assessments to  all



             pollutants  across all media, effectively taking  into account synergistic effects of multi-



             pollutant and multi-media exposures.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final   11/15/02  11:50  PM  Page 45
       THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA              SECTION
              ECONOMICS AND COMMERCE







              Forecast and Context







                     Ecosystems are the foundation of economic enterprise.  Natural and managed



              ecosystems provide many familiar and marketable goods such as: crops, seafood, livestock,



              forage, timber, natural fibers, biomass fuels, and many pharmaceutical and  industrial



              inputs.  Ecosystems also provide a vast array of ecosystem services that are much less



              familiar because they are not traded in the marketplace: purifying water, cycling nutrients,



              regulating atmospheric composition and climate, dispersing seeds and pollinating plants,



              controlling pests, building topsoil, and assimilating and detoxifying society's wastes.



                     Even the most conservative calculations suggest that the value of these ecosystem



              services is greater than today's gross world product.27 Indeed, these services are invaluable,



              since  without  them every  economy would  permanently  collapse.  Economic  and



              environmental well-being are ultimately inseparable. The U.S. Environmental Protection



              Agency (EPA)  needs  to expand its current efforts to  quantify and, whenever possible,



              monetize the benefits associated with environmental protection and improvement.  A full



              cost accounting of all costs and benefits  associated  with environmental programs  is



              necessary to support effective and efficient decision-making.



                     A comprehensive overview  of the world's ecosystems prepared  by the United



              Nations, the World Bank, and the World Resources Institute  concluded that, "There are



              considerable signs that the capacity of ecosystems, the biological engines of the planet, to



              produce many of the goods and services we depend on is rapidly declining."28 The decline



              is fastest in some of the world's poorest nations, creating the prospect of future ecological-



              economic development failures.  Affluent nations face special  environmental risks related



              to possibilities for terrorism and economic disruption.



                     Command-and-control policies  that use laws,  regulations,  and  standards to



              influence behavior are sometimes the only effective way of protecting ecosystem  goods

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       SECTION III	ECONOMICS AND COMMERCE







                        and services.   However, command-and-control approaches have real economic costs



                        because they tend to deny firms the flexibility to innovate and respond in the most cost



                        effective  manner.  As  a  result,  environmental regulations  are increasingly  being



                        supplemented by cooperative partnerships and  by  market-based instruments  such  as:



                        taxes, pollution charges, tradable quotas, or pollution emission permits.



                               In the United States, the  amount of consumer waste, particularly in electronic



                        products, is growing astronomically.  It is estimated  that 31 million personal computers



                        will become trash next year, and that number may double by 2007. All of these electronic



                        goods  contain small amounts of toxic substances (including lead, mercury, and heavy



                        metals) that collectively can become a national environmental problem.  The increased



                        implementation of producer take-back programs, similar to those introduced in Europe,



                        could help minimize this pending problem. A few states are making modest steps in the



                        direction of product take-back programs, but much more needs to be done.



                               A consistent pursuit of ways to align the efficiency of markets with environmental



                        protection will lead toward a future in which the structure of the economy increasingly



                        shifts from selling things to selling the "services that things provide." In today's economy,



                        providers profit by selling more things more often, increasing the "throughput" of energy



                        and materials through  the  economy, which is  the primary source  of environmental



                        impacts.   A shift toward selling the services that things provide changes the incentive



                        structure for providers and consumers alike, so that both benefit from  solutions that are



                        more energy and materials efficient.



                               Already some U.S. companies are moving in this direction. For example, Carrier,



                        the world's largest manufacturer of air  conditioners,  is experimenting with  selling



                        "comfort services" rather than air conditioners. This shift creates a situation where the



                        best way for Carrier to boost its profits, and give its customers  more comfort at lower cost,



                        is to increase the energy efficiency and  durability of its equipment.  Similarly, Dow is



                        shifting toward providing "pesticide  services" and carpet manufacturer Interface is  selling



                        "floor covering services" rather than  carpets.  In fact, Interface actually retains ownership



                        of the floor covering product and  recovers worn product from its customers' facilities for

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       THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA	SECTION






              reprocessing into its next generation of product. In each case, both provider and customer



              profit from minimizing  rather than  maximizing the  flow of energy and materials.



              Fostering this shift in business strategy and economic structure may be the most effective



              way to speed the emergence of environmentally advanced technologies.







              Desired State







                     +     Effective protection of the capacity of ecosystems to produce valuable



                            goods  and  services  through sustainable  global   development  and



                            restoration of damaged ecosystems. A large middle class emerges in all



                            developing nations, with  rapid growth in resource  productivity, jobs,



                            wages, capital, savings,  profits,  knowledge and education, combined with



                            rapid declines in poverty, waste, and pollution.







                     +     Integrative policies treat the goals of economic  growth, environmental



                            protection, and  social equity as  mutually  reinforcing, and recognize



                            environmental justice as an essential component of social equity.







                     +     Prevention of ecological-economic development failures in  poor nations,



                            with cooperative international actions to respond to emergency situations.







                     +     More  effective use of market-based instruments, voluntary agreements,



                            and partnerships to achieve environmental objectives without impeding



                            commercial transactions or incurring  unnecessary costs. The economic



                            consequences of environmental actions are well understood.







                     +     A widespread shift from selling things to selling the "services that things



                            provide."

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page 48
      SECTION III	ECONOMICS AND COMMERCE







                       Opportunities  for EPA







                              Support  International  Policy  Coordination.  Support the



                       development of an over-arching legal instrument or forum, such as the United Nations



                       Commission on Sustainable  Development, to  review and verify attainment of global



                       environmental goals in an integrated manner.







                              Provide Alerts on Substandard International Environmental



                       Practices. Cooperate with international environmental organizations to identify high



                       environmental risk manufacturing practices and to minimize the potential for migration



                       of such practices to developing and economically-stressed regions.







                              Assist in  Preventing Ecological-Economic  Development



                       Failures. Cooperate with the Department of State, the United Nations Development



                       Programme,  and other  appropriate organizations to  develop  a capability  to identify



                       serious environmental problems  that could lead  to  conflicts  or ecological-economic



                       failures in developing nations.  In partnership with  other national and international



                       organizations, develop capabilities for  providing  economic support,  environmental



                       restoration, and assistance in  health infrastructure development  to help nations avoid or



                       deal with crises.







                              Support U.S. Industry Contingency Planning.  Become a leader in



                       developing the environmental side of contingency planning, encouraging and supporting



                       industry to anticipate environmental problems that might occur with a sharp economic



                       decline, terrorism or natural  disasters. EPA sector-based programs can help businesses



                       identify dangers  within  particular industrial  sectors and  understand the  potential



                       environmental and health risks associated with economic stress.  Support industry with



                       national actions, e.g., an underground storage tank trust fund, or bonding arrangements



                       to ensure for costs of environmental remediation.

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                    Support  Government  and  Community-Based   Emergency



             Management  Planning.  Under the Clean  Water Act,  broaden  emergency



             management plans to include terrorist activity.  Assure that infrastructure management



             systems have adequate contingency plans for acts of terrorism, including ecoterrorism, as



             well as other environmental surprises.  Provide guidance to other agencies at different



             levels of government on reviewing their emergency management plans for environmental



             issues.







                    Improve  the Permitting Process  to Foster Environmental



             Justice. Environmental justice needs to go hand-in-hand with economic development.



             To prevent disproportionate impacts to poor and minority communities, modify the



             process of permitting  new facilities to adequately take into  account  cumulative and



             multimedia impacts of nearby facilities.  Identify all sources  of emissions, including non-



             point sources, and account for health conditions in communities when evaluating risk.



             Today,  newly permitted facilities might comply with environmental regulations, but may



             add significantly to the quantity of pollutants already present and cumulatively create



             major health risks.







                    Expand  EPA   Product  Stewardship and Design  for   the



             Environment Efforts.  With technology  acceleration and globalization causing a



             proliferation of products in U.S.  markets, comprehensive testing of their environmental



             impacts will not be possible.  In order to cope, EPA  needs to  move up the production



             chain   to encourage  manufacturer product  take-back,  other  product  stewardship



             arrangements, and a wide range of Design for the Environment approaches. Cooperative



             agreements  among consumers, government  and industry that give businesses  more



             responsibility for end-of-life management of  products create incentives to redesign



             products  with  fewer  toxins,  making  them more  durable,  reusable  and recyclable.



             Voluntary partnerships with  industry, universities,  research institutions,  and  other



             government agencies can help businesses find cost effective ways to bring environmental

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      SECTION III	ECONOMICS AND COMMERCE






                       considerations into the design of products, processes, and management systems.  Large



                       corporations can influence the behavior of thousands of smaller companies  by writing



                       quality specifications for their suppliers that keep toxins and materials that cannot be



                       reused or recycled out of their products. More emphasis on voluntary approaches does



                       not imply that EPA should give  up a product testing role.   However,  EPA will need to



                       develop strategies for selecting the most important targets.







                              Continue   to   Identify   Cost-Effective   Environmental



                       Technologies.   EPA should continue  to  identify and bring to market the best



                       practices  and most cost effective  environmental technologies by  expanding  its



                       Environmental Technology Verification program (ETV).  The ETV program verifies the



                       performance of commercial-ready environmental technologies, and partners with the U.S.



                       Agency  for International Development (USAID), U.S.-Asia Environmental Partnership



                       Program (USAEP), and the Department of Commerce.







                              Co-Sponsor Industry Conferences on  "Selling  The  Services



                       That Things Provide."  The EPA's sector-based programs can partner with industry



                       associations, universities, environmental organizations, and other  stakeholders to hold



                       conferences for different industry groups on the concept of shifting from selling things to



                       selling the services things provide. The conferences can feature expert  presentations and



                       reports by industry innovators who have already adopted this approach, and participatory



                       "how to" working sessions.

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      THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA              SECTION
              POLITICS AND SOCIAL EVOLUTION
              Forecast and Context







                    Without much  fanfare, a  historic  redistribution of decision-making roles  is



              underway in many nations today, including the United States.  Power is leaking away



              from nation states in all directions: upward, downward, and sideways.  This pattern of



              change will have enormous implications for environmental protection, for better or for



              worse.   Moreover, the  gap between the "haves"  and the "have  nots"  is widening.



              According to the World Bank data on poverty, the ratio of global average income of the



              top five percent to the bottom five percent has increased from six to 186 in the past 20



              years.



                    The shift  upward  is related, in large part,  to  the  growth of  multinational



              corporations and their evolution from loose collections of national firms into truly global



              enterprises.  Less known,  but just as important, is the growing array of international



              economic and political institutions.   More than 5,900 international  governmental



              organizations and  networks operate today, and many are quite influential  in their own



              spheres of activity.29



                    The shift downward is moving some decisions to regional, state, tribal and local



              levels. In the United States, this new federalism has been evolving under both Democratic



              and Republican administrations. A similar phenomenon is underway in many industrial



              nations.



                    The shift sideways involves a wide array of privatization arrangements and public-



              private partnerships.  It  also  includes the growing role that  non-governmental



              organizations (NGOs) are playing in governance at every level.  NGOs bring issues to



              attention, propose and influence solutions, and monitor the behavior of corporations,



              governments and  other entities.  They are  increasing their influence by linking into

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       SECTION III	POLITICS AND SOCIAL EVOLUTION






                        transnational networks, coordinating their efforts globally, and moving at Internet speed.



                        The EPA will have  to be  flexible and  adjust to the challenge of working with these



                        networks  because information technology has enabled them to reconfigure  alliances



                        around specific issues.



                                It is possible to imagine  a  future where  this pattern of change leads to great



                        improvements in environmental protection.  NGOs at every level would focus attention



                        on environmental  problems  and  suggest solutions.   International institutions  and



                        conventions  would structure global responses to  global  problems.  Transnational



                        corporations would transfer environmentally advanced technologies around the world, set



                        high  environmental and  social  standards  for their  own operations,  and  establish



                        independent  monitoring  practices. National governments would  support  global



                        environmental treaties, make  greater use of market-based instruments and voluntary



                        partnerships, and ensure that state and local governments have the capacity to maintain



                        standards.  State and local governments  would react responsively to the conditions they



                        face, innovate, and share lessons of experience. The lowest level of governance able to



                        produce the desired  result would always have the primary role.  Business, government,



                        and NGOs would have increasingly cooperative, rather than antagonistic, relationships.



                                Unfortunately,  it is also possible to imagine a future  where this pattern of change



                        undermines environmental protection. Key nations could fail to support global treaties



                        and conventions.  Lack of support for  the  United Nations  and other international



                        institutions would limit their effectiveness. Many global corporations would engage in a



                        "race to the bottom," moving operations to nations where  environmental standards are



                        weakest. National governments would fail to maintain environmental standards, fail to



                        accelerate the emergence of environmentally advanced technologies, and fail to ensure that



                        states,  tribes  and local governments have the capacity to carry  out  their  delegated



                        responsibilities. Decisions and actions will determine which way our society evolves today.







                        Desired State







                                +     Environmental decision-making takes place at the level most appropriate



                                      to achieve desired results.

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                    +     The United States consistently approaches environmental protection from



                           a global perspective, not just a national perspective.







                    +     Full compliance  is maintained with environmental  standards at the



                           national, state and local levels.







                    +     Distributed  and  informed  decision-making, with  effective capacity



                           building and performance monitoring, allows  state, tribal  and  local



                           governments to react responsibly to environmental conditions.







             Opportunities for  EPA







                    Sustain  U.S.  Global Participation.   Devote  far more attention to



             improve and support global environmental initiatives and conventions. U.S. participation



             in formulating and achieving global environmental objectives needs to be sustained and



             consistent. The United States is a major environmental player on the world stage, but not



             the director. If our nation is to remain a major player, it has to engage.







                    Support Information Needs for Greater Transparency  and



             Accountability.  Globalization of digital technologies is creating a radical expansion



             of connectivity that allows people to  more easily seek  and exchange information on a



             global scale. NGOs are using these capabilities to seek out information about the



             performance of corporations and governments, to share that information widely, and to



             coordinate environmental activism more effectively around the world.  Over the decades



             ahead, all major corporations will come under scrutiny.  Society is in the early stages of a



             transition  phase,  from a comparatively opaque,  low information  state  to  a  high



             information state with much greater transparency and accountability.  What should it be



             like on the other side of this transition when good information on the environmental



             performance of all institutions is widely available?  What information on environmental



             performance needs to be universally collected? What information quality assurance roles

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      SECTION III	POLITICS AND SOCIAL EVOLUTION






                       are necessary? How can redundant reporting requirements on companies be minimized?



                       What roles can NGOs play best, and what are their information needs?  What forms of



                       involvement will  do  the most to assure  responsible corporate and NGO  behavior?



                       Thoughtful responses to  these questions could allow EPA to make extremely important



                       contributions to domestic and international environmental protection.







                              Support The Global Reporting Initiative. EPA has given a small level



                       of financial support to the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), established by the Coalition



                       for Environmentally Responsible Economies (CERES) in partnership with the United



                       Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). EPA should consider expanding this support



                       and providing it on an ongoing basis. The mission of the GRI is to promote international



                       harmonization  in reporting  information  on corporate  environmental, social  and



                       economic performance.    It  is being  developed with the  active participation of



                       corporations, NGOs, accountancy  organizations, business  associations, and other



                       international stakeholders. Twenty-one pilot companies, including major U.S. firms such



                       as Baxter International, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Ford, General  Motors, Proctor & Gamble,



                       and  Sunoco,  have tested and improved initial draft  reporting guidelines.   By 2002,



                       participants hope to establish the GRI as a permanent, independent, international body



                       with a multi-stakeholder  governance structure.







                              Expand EPA's Role in  Regional, State and Tribal Capacity



                       Building.  Expand EPA's role in capacity building to ensure that EPA regions, and the



                       state and tribal governments they serve, have the skills needed to carry out their delegated



                       responsibilities.  Then ensure that states,  tribes  and  regions  are  given the maximum



                       authority and independence that can be delegated.







                              Improve Capacity to  Track State and Tribal Environmental



                       Performance.   Identify gaps and improve EPA's capability to track the performance



                       of state and tribal governments with delegated authority for EPA functions.  Support

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      THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA	SECTION






             ongoing efforts of the Results-Based Initiative to integrate EPA and state performance



             information.  This will require significant improvements in compliance reporting and



             better performance measures. While EPA has developed some abilities to measure inputs



             and outputs,  it currently lacks a systematic method for assessing the effectiveness and



             efficiency of its major program activities.







                    Reinstate Federal Oversight  Capacity for Distressed State



             Programs.  EPA should fulfill its responsibility to help failing state-delegated programs



             to  attain  established  environmental  objectives  and  carry  out major  program



             responsibilities.







                    Create New Opportunities for NGO and Stakeholder Input.



             Throughout  EPA, establish new  mechanisms  that  reach  out  to  NGOs and  other



             organizations, establish new relationships with a broader range of stakeholders, and



             provide them with formal opportunities for input.  Key areas for soliciting input include



             stakeholder views  on  priority problem  areas  and  suggestions for improving  EPA's



             strategies, services and operations.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page 56

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EPA NACEPT Pub  Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page 57
             SECTION IV
             CONCLUSIONS
                    The  National  Advisory Council  for  Environment  Policy and Technology

             (NACEPT) developed this report in an effort  to play a more active, strategic role in

             advising the  U.S.  Environmental  Protection Agency (EPA). Through this process,

             NACEPT gained insight into the commitment, skills and resources involved in futures

             planning.  While NACEPT at times struggled with questions of process, it made great

             strides in understanding what works, and  what does  not work, in  creating an

             environmental foresight radar.  It is important to note, however, that these are still first

             steps and much more can be done.

                    NACEPT looks forward to continuing this work with the EPA Administrator and

             in partnering with  the program offices that have worked so hard to initiate and lead

             strategic and futures planning.  We hope that with this report, EPA will select specific

             emerging challenges and opportunities and return to NACEPT for further consultation.

             We look forward to EPA's response to this  report and to future  efforts to scan the

             environmental horizon.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page 59
             SECTION  V
             SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS	

                    In  developing the recommendations  contained  in this  report,  the  National
             Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology (NACEPT) recognized that
             many require coordination with, or action by, agencies beyond EPA. NACEPT has
             divided the Opportunities for EPA into the following categories:

                A.  Immediate:  Those that appear to be both technically feasible and within the
                scope  of EPA's mission,  and  could  be  implemented immediately through
                commitment of appropriate resources.

                B. Mid-Term: Those that appear to be technically feasible in the near future, but
                may lie outside the scope of EPA's mission and/or require coordination with other
                agencies.

                C. Long-Term:  Those that require substantial research and development and/or
                coordination with other agencies prior to  implementation, but offer  long-term
                rewards.
             A.  IMMEDIATE OPPORTUNITIES

             World Population and Demographics
                    +     Raise domestic awareness of the importance of sustainable development.
                    +     Facilitate  export  of environmentally superior technologies through
                          revitalization  of the Environmental Trade Workgroup of  the Trade
                          Promotion Coordination Committee.

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      SECTION V	SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS






                        Natural Resources - Energy



                              +     Expand the Energy-Star Program broadly across all consumer product



                                     sectors.



                              +     Establish a Green Vehicle Labeling Program to identify automobiles that



                                     are both  energy efficient  and  manufactured  using  environmentally



                                     friendly components and processes.







                        Natural Resources - Water



                              +     Integrate  water efficiency with  water quality standards  and  other



                                     regulations.



                              +     Expedite the pending Pretreatment Streamlining Initiative in the Office of



                                     Water to address water quality/water efficiency conflicts in the effluent



                                     guidelines programs.







                        Natural Resources - Biodiversity,  Land, and Food



                              +     Enhance the use of Supplemental Environmental  Projects in pending and



                                     future enforcement  actions  to  encourage  land  conservation  and



                                     restoration efforts.







                        Natural Resources - Air



                              +     Follow up  the Office  of Air and Radiation's report "Healthy Buildings,



                                     Healthy People" with a national voluntary partnership for a toxin-free



                                     indoor environment.







                        Science and Technology



                              +     Move beyond Project XL with new, simplified regulatory relief strategies



                                     to  spur  superior  environmental   performance  and  technological



                                     innovation.



                              +     Lead  by  example  with  a  clear,  Agency-wide commitment  to



                                     environmental excellence, beginning with the EPA Strategic Plan.

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      THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA	SECTION V






              Information Management and Access



                    +     Expand  EPA's information role through increased focus on  delivering



                           environmental education to the public.







              Economics and Commerce



                    +     Continue to identify cost-effective, emerging environmental technologies



                           through  the Environmental Technology Verification program.



                    +     Support disaster  preparedness  by state and  local  governments,



                           communities, and U.S. industry through development and delivery of



                           comprehensive vulnerability assessment tools, and resources to implement



                           effective  contingency plans.



                    +     Expand EPA's product stewardship and Design for the Environment efforts



                           to ensure the development of environmentally responsible products and



                           services.







              Politics and Social Evolution



                    +     Enhance EPA's  own capacity to track  state and tribal environmental



                           performance to accurately assess the effectiveness of its major programs.



                    +     Enhance the capacity of EPA regional offices and states to effectively carry



                           out  their  delegated program  responsibilities,  including   providing



                           compliance assistance to regulated entities.



                    +     Promptly reinstate federal oversight capacity for distressed state programs



                           where states fail to fulfill delegated program obligations or consistently fail



                           to attain environmental objectives.



                    +     Engage NGOs  and other non-traditional  stakeholders  in identifying



                           effective  community-based approaches to environmental protection.

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      SECTION V                                                              SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS
                       B.  MID-TERM OPPORTUNITIES







                       World Population and Demographics



                              +     Elevate EPA's international role in providing credible information on the



                                     environmental, economic and social impacts  of population growth and



                                     consumption,  and  in supporting  global  sustainable development



                                     networks.







                       Natural Resources - Energy



                              +     Encourage development of total cost accounting for energy technologies



                                     to facilitate responsible energy development.



                              +     Spur investment in renewable energy resources and  energy efficient



                                     technologies through Clean Air Act State Implementation Plans.



                              +     Promote market-oriented policies and programs for reducing greenhouse



                                     gas emissions.



                              +     Demonstrate  methane-to-hydrogen conversion and hydrogen energy



                                     technologies at publicly-owned treatment works.







                       Natural Resources - Water



                              +     Develop a holistic approach to water and the environment, working with



                                     EPA, other federal agencies, and non-government stakeholders.



                              +     Redouble  efforts to  effectively include  non-point  sources  in  water



                                     management programs.







                       Natural Resources - Biodiversity, Land, and Food



                              +     Continue to develop partnerships with state  agencies  responsible for



                                     wildlife preservation and biodiversity protection.

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      THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA	SECTION V






              Natural Resources - Air



                    +     Develop a multi-pollutant approach to address air emissions from diffuse



                           sources.







              Science and Technology



                    +     Marshal sound  science  in  developing  and  defending  environmental



                           standards.







              Information Management and Access



                    +     Expand EPA's information  coordination  role  with state  and local



                           regulatory partners and other  entities  performing environmental



                           monitoring.



                    +     Invest in and incorporate geospatial technologies into EPA's rulemaking,



                           regulatory and compliance procedures.







              Economics and Commerce



                    +     Implement a  global alert system to identify high  environmental risk



                           manufacturing processes to  minimize migration of these practices  to



                           economically vulnerable nations and communities.



                    +     Integrate  cumulative risk assessment into  EPA and state permitting



                           processes to foster environmental justice.







              Politics and Social Evolution



                    +     Support the  Global  Reporting  Initiative pilot projects currently being



                           tested at major multinational corporations.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page 64
      SECTION V                                                              SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS
                        C.  LONG-TERM OPPORTUNITIES







                        World Population and Demographics



                              +     Establish an "Envirocorps" to complement the international aid efforts of



                                     the Peace Corps.







                        Natural Resources - Energy



                              +     Support innovative research on sequestering carbon in energy production.



                              +     Encourage  research and development of hydrogen as  a primary energy



                                     carrier.



                              +     Partner with the Department of Energy (DOE)  on the new Freedom Car



                                     project that will develop hydrogen fuel celled motor vehicles in the next



                                     ten years.







                        Natural Resources - Water



                              +     Support  an effective  market  environment to  minimize generation  of



                                     hazardous waste through  pollution prevention, source reduction, and



                                     other initiatives.







                        Natural Resources - Biodiversity, Land, and Food



                              +     Develop  comprehensive biodiversity indicators  as primary indicators of



                                     ecological health.



                              +     Expand  domestic  and global efforts to identify and control  invasive



                                     species.



                              +     Sponsor research on the benefits and costs of higher density community



                                     development.



                              +     Assess the ecological and economic impacts of rising sea levels resulting



                                     from global warming.

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      THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA	SECTION V

                    +     Advocate environmentally advanced agriculture practices.
                    +     Develop  a national strategy to address the public  health impacts of
                           antibiotics, hormones, and other food additives in food production.

             Natural Resources - Air
                    +     Re-establish an advanced automotive technology partnership.
                    +     Support research and development for advanced transit systems, including
                           commercial vehicles.
                    +     Support research on ultra-clean coal technology.

             Science and Technology
                    +     Create investment partnerships for energy efficiency.
                    +     Identify  and promote  environmentally beneficial developments in
                           biotechnology and nanotechnology.

             Information Management and Access
                    +     Monitor  and  promote  the  use  of  new  sensing technologies in
                           environmental monitoring.
                    +     Perfect integrated monitoring technologies  that  allow  "total  human
                           exposure" assessments to multimedia and multi-pollutant exposures.

             Economics and Commerce
                    +     Support the development of an international legal  instrument to review
                           and verify environmental performance.
                    +     Assist in preventing ecological and economic development failures.
                    +     Encourage conversion through informational outreach from  a  "goods"
                           economy to one that provides the services that these goods provide.
             Politics and Social Evolution
                    +     Support  U.S. participation in global environmental  initiatives  and
                           conventions.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02 11:50 PM  Page 67
           ATTACHMENT A
           Charge to  the
           National Advisory Council  for
           Environmental  Policy and Technology

           Emerging Trends and  Issues Workgroup
           Background


                 In  1999, the National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and

           Technology (NACEPT) undertook a tenth anniversary study to evaluate its impact and

           effectiveness, and to chart a course for its future by identifying ways to better serve the

           U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The study recommended that NACEPT

           become proactive and operate strategically to identify policy issues for the Council to

           address. EPA agreed that NACEPT can play a valuable strategic role and encouraged the

           Council to identify areas where NACEPT believes stakeholder input would aid EPA

           decisionmakers.



                 A March 2000 NACEPT planning session, and the Reinvention Action Council

           (RAC) meeting in June 2000, resulted in discussions about NACEPT's new role as an

           anticipatory and visionary body. The Council agreed to help EPA with the conceptual

           design of a process for identifying emerging issues affecting EPA over the next five to ten

           years.
           Committee Charge

                 The Emerging Trends and Issues Workgroup agreed to use a two-pronged

           approach to become a more strategic and visionary body. First, NACEPT will identify a

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02   11:50 PM  Page 68
                         process to enhance EPA's (and/or NACEPT's) ability to identify emerging trends and



                         issues that will affect EPA over the next five to ten years.  Second, NACEPT will identify



                         emerging issues and trends, assign priorities, and prepare issue papers for presentation to



                         the  NACEPT Council.  The initial  work of the group will focus on the  following



                         activities:








                                +     Produce an interim report of emerging issues and trends.



                                +     Organize proposed emerging topics into overarching themes.



                                +     Dialog with a futurist to help identify and prioritize significant issues and



                                       trends.



                                +     Identify models used by corporations with units dedicated to examining



                                       future events and trends.



                                +     Invite  EPA representatives to  give presentations on the  historical



                                       perspective of EPA's strategic planning process and the budgetary analysis



                                       of core issues.



                                +     Recognize that the identification of  emerging trends  and issues is an



                                       evolving process.

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             ATTACHMENT B
             Endnotes
                    United Nations Population Fund, "The State of the World Population 1995,"
             (New York: 1993).

                    2Military Health  System,  U.S. Department of  Defense,  "Toward  A New
             Enterprise," (Washington, D.C.: 1999, 2-3).

                    Population Information Program,  Johns Hopkins University School of Public
             Health, "Population Growth and Urbanization: Cities at the Forefront," published in
             Istanbul + 5 preview edition of Population Reports, (Baltimore: 2001).

                    4World  Health Organization  [WHO],  "Health and the  Environment  in
             Sustainable Development - Five Years After the Earth Summit," (Geneva: 1997).

                    5James  Hansen et al.,  "Global Warming in the Twenty-First  Century:  An
             Alternative Scenario," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, (16 June 2000, 1-6).

                    6Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart, eds., Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of
             the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,  (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,
             2000).

                    7Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Arnulf Grubler,  and Alan McDonald, eds.,  Global Energy
             Perspectives, (New York: Cambridge University  Press, 1998).

                    8Seth Dunn, "Decarbonizing the Energy Economy," Worldwatch Institute, State of
             the World2001, (Washington, D.C.: 2001, 91).

                    9Jesse H. Ausubel, "The Liberation of the  Environment," Daedalus,  (125(3),
             Summer 1996, 1-17).

                    10Ibid.

                    "Ibid.

                    12World Resources Institute,  World Resources 2000-2001,  (Washington, D.C.:
             World  Resources Institute, 2000, 110).
                    13
                     Ibid.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02   11:50 PM  Page 70
                               14Ibid.  See also "Global Trends 2015," Washington Central Intelligence Agency,
                        2000.

                               15World Water Council,  "World's Rivers  in Crisis," press release, (Washington,
                        D.C.: 29 November 1999).

                               16Sandra Postel, "Forging a Sustainable Water Strategy," in State of the World 1996,
                        (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, 1996,  40-59).

                               17Groundwater statistic  from  United  Nations  Environment  Programme,
                        "Groundwater: A Threatened Resource," (Nairobi: 1996, p. 7); river water statistic from
                        Igor A. Shiklomanov, World Water Resources, (Paris: International Hydrological Program,
                        United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization, 1998, 6).

                               18Robert T  Watson,  et al.,  Protecting Our  Planet,  Securing  Our  Future,
                        (Washington,  D.C.:  United  Nations  Environment Programme,  U.S.  National
                        Aeronautics and Space Administration, and The World Bank, 1998,  16-30).

                               19Bjorn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the
                        World, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,  2001).

                               20"Global Warming and Terrestrial Biodiversity Decline," World Wildlife Fund,
                        2001.

                               21Warren Richey,  "Showdown Over $7.8 Billion Plan to Restore the Everglades,"
                        Christian Science Monitor, July 2, 1999.

                               22Gary Gardner,  "Preserving Global  Cropland,"  in  State of the World 1997,
                        (Washington: Worldwatch Institute, 1997, 58).

                               23Seth  Dunn, Carbon  Emissions Continue  Decline  in  Vital  Signs 2001
                        (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, 2001,  52).

                               24Estimate based on statistics from  the International Energy Agency (IEA), "Oil,
                        Gas,  Coal and Electricity Quarterly Statistics," second  quarter (Paris: Organization for
                        Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)/IEA, 2000,  400-401, 446-447).

                               25U.S. EPA, "Healthy Buildings, Healthy  People: A Vision for the  21st Century,"
                        2001.

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EPA NACEPT Pub Final  11/15/02  11:50 PM  Page  71
                    26President's Council on Sustainable Development, "Sustainable America: A New
              Consensus," (Washington, D.C.: 1996, 62).

                    27Robert Costanza et al., "The Value  of the World's Ecosystem  Services  and
              Natural Capital," Nature, Vol. 387, 1997, 259.

                    28Robert T. Watson, et al, "Protecting  Our  Planet, Securing Our  Future,"
              (Washington,  D.C.,  United  Nations  Environment  Programme,  U.S.  National
              Aeronautics and Space Administration and the World Bank, 1998).

                    29Ann  M. Florini,  The  Third Force: The  Rise of Transnational Civil Society,
              (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.: 2000).

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