EPA NACEPT Pub Final 11/15/02 11:50 PM Page 1
.
Fill ENVIRONMENTAL FUTUI
SEFA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Emerging Challenges
and Opportunities
for EPA
A Report from the
National Advisory Council for
Environmental Policy and
Technology (NACEPT)
September 2002
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NOTICE
This report was produced by the National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and
Technology (NACEPT), an independent federal advisory committee providing extramural policy
advice to the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). NACEPT provides
balanced and expert assessments of policy matters related to the environmental programs of the
United States. Its operation is supported by the EPA.
The Council consulted with many EPA offices while developing this report. The contents of this
report and its recommendations do not necessarily represent the views and policies of EPA, nor of
other federal government agencies, nor does the mention of trade names, companies, or commercial
products constitute a recommendation or endorsement for use.
EPA 100-R-02-001
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of the Administrator
Office of Cooperative Environmental Management
http://www.epa.gov/ocem
September 2002
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Letter to the Administrator
September 19, 2002
The Honorable Christine Todd Whitman
Administrator
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20460
Dear Governor Whitman:
The National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology
(NACEPT) is pleased to present to you our most recent report, The Environmental Future:
Emerging Challenges and Opportunities for EPA. This report reflects the evolving strategic
role that EPA envisioned for the Council in March 2000.
Policymakers too seldom have the opportunity to contemplate long-term or
emerging environmental challenges. Futures analysis, the art and science of anticipating
nascent environmental issues, can facilitate EPA's proactive planning to prevent potential
problems rather than responding after the fact. This report reviews EPA's current futures
analysis capability and recommends that more be done to support environmental
foresight programs. In addition, the report offers a framework to analyze the
environmental implications of trends in world population and demographics, natural
resources, science and technology, information management and access, economics and
commerce, and politics and social evolution. The report concludes with general and
specific recommendations for how EPA can best address these changing conditions.
The unthinkable events of the past year remind us that, along with securing our
borders, our nation needs to secure its natural resources and environmental legacy.
Concerted efforts to improve environmental foresight will help EPA secure the nation's
vital resources and help EPA remain a global leader in applying innovative and effective
solutions to complex environmental problems.
NACEPT appreciates this opportunity to advise the EPA and looks forward to a
response from you and the program offices affected by these recommendations. The
Council also looks forward to an ongoing dialogue with EPA as it continues its role as a
strategic and visionary counselor.
Sincerely,
Dorothy Bowers, Chair
National Advisory Council for
Environmental Policy and Technology
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
NACEPT Members
Acknowledgments
Executive Summary
SECTION I Introduction
SECTION II. Improving EPAs Environmental Foresight
SECTION III. Emerging Challenges and Opportunities
World Population and Demographics
Natural Resources
Energy
Water
Biodiversity, Land and Food
Air
Science and Technology
Information Management and Access
Economics and Commerce
Politics and Social Evolution
Conclusions
Summary of Recommendations
Charge to NACEPT
Endnotes
SECTION IV
SECTION V
Attachment A
Attachment B
Page
i
iv
vi
1
5
9
11
15
16
20
24
29
33
39
45
51
57
59
67
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Members
Ms. Dorothy P. Bowers
NACEPT Chair
Merck & Company, Inc.
Matawan, NJ
Dr. Carlos H. Arce*
President
NuStats Research & Consulting
Austin, TX
Mr. Gary W. Ballesteros*
Assistant General Counsel
for Environmental Affairs
Rockwell International Corp.
Milwaukee, WI
Dr. D. Randall Brandt
Senior Vice President, Integrated Services
Burke, Inc.
Cincinnati, OH
Dr. Tom Davies
Senior Vice-President
Current Analysis, Inc.
Sterling, VA
Ms. KirbyA. Dyess
Vice-President/Director of Intel Capital
Intel Corporation
Hillsboro, OR
Mr. Mark Greenwood
Ropes & Gray
Washington, DC
Mr. Richard J. Guimond
Vice-President and Corporate Director
Environment, Health, & Safety
Motorola, Inc.
Schaumburg, IL
Ms. Janet Hall
Director, Publishing Systems
America Online, Inc.
Dulles, VA
Mr. Grover Glenn Hankins*
Professor of Law
Director of the Environmental Justice Clinic
Thurgood Marshall School of Law
Texas Southern University
Houston, TX
Dr. Frederick B. Henderson, III*
HENDCO Services
Nathrop, CO
Ms. Linda Hixon*
Workgroup Chair
Executive Director
North Chickamauga Creek Conservancy
Chattanooga, TN
Mr. Charles Jones*
Commissioner
Douglas County, Kansas
Lawrence, KS
Dr. Charles C. Kidd, Sr.
President, York College
The City University of New York
Jamaica, NY
Mr. James L. Ledbetter
Executive Vice-President
Law Engineering and Environmental Services, Inc.
Kennesaw, GA
Mr. David Marsh*
Chairman
Marsh Plating Corporation
Ypsilanti, MI
Mr. Kevin Mills*
Senior Attorney/Director
Pollution Prevention Alliance
Environmental Defense
Washington, DC
Mr. Robert L. Rhodes, Jr.
NACEPT Chair Emeritus (1997-2001)
Deputy Managing Partner
Holland & Knight, LLP
Washington, DC
Dr. Marc J. Rogoff
Vice President
HDR Engineering
Tampa, FL
Mr. Bernard D. Rostker
Senior Associate
RAND Corporation
Arlington, VA
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Members
Ms. Wilma Subra*
Technical Advisor
Louisiana Environmental Action Network
New Iberia, LA
Dr. Joseph Sullivan
Professor
Dept. of Chemical Engineering
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and
State University
Blacksburg, VA
Mr. Richard Sustich*
Assistant Director of Research and Development
Metropolitan Water Reclamation District
of Greater Chicago
Chicago, IL
Dr. Valerie Petit Wilson*
Deputy Director
Tulane/Xavier
Center for Bio-Environmental Research
Clinical Associate Professor
Environmental Health Services
School of Public Health
Tulane University Health Sciences Center
New Orleans, LA
Ms. Patricia K. Wood
Manager
Federal Regulatory Affairs
Georgia-Pacific Corporation
Washington, DC
EPA STAFF MANAGERS
Ms. Sonia Altieri*
Designated Federal Officer
NACEPT Emerging Trends & Issues Workgroup
Office of Cooperative Environmental Management
Office of the Administrator
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, DC
Mr. Peter G. Redmond, Jr.
NACEPT Designated Federal Officer
Office of Cooperative Environmental Management
Office of the Administrator
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, DC
Mr. Mark Joyce
Senior Policy Advisor
Office of Cooperative Environmental Management
Office of the Administrator
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, DC
CONTRACT SUPPORT
Mr. Robert Olson, Ph.C.
Futures Analysis Consultant
Research Director
Institute for Alternative Futures
Alexandria, VA
Emerging Trends and Issues Workgroup Member
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We wish to acknowledge the many individuals who generously contributed their
time, talent, and expertise in developing this report.
First, the National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology
(NACEPT) is deeply indebted to the tireless efforts of the Emerging Trends and Issues
Workgroup members who devoted countless hours to meetings, teleconferences, and
revisions of this report. The Workgroup displayed a remarkable esprit de corps and
commitment to the work. We express our deep gratitude and appreciation to Linda
Hixon for chairing the Workgroup, and Richard Sustich for his leading role in shaping
and completing the report.
We wish to thank the EPA program offices that supported this work, with special
recognition to Anita Street and Michael Brody from the Office of the Chief Financial
Officer (OCFO), who generously shared their resources, expertise and enthusiasm.
Through OCFO, NACEPT was able to tap into the expertise of Robert Olson, a futurist
and Research Director from the Institute for Alternative Futures, who helped us frame our
ideas and articulate our vision. Special thanks also to Renelle Rae of the Office of Air and
Radiation (OAR) who coordinated and facilitated the Group Ware exercise, and to Pasky
Pascual of the Office of Research and Development (ORD), who provided invaluable
expertise and creative ideas for collaboration between EPA and NACEPT.
A note of gratitude to the EPA staff who provided comments on the report,
including Ed Bender, Michael Binder, Dennis Cunningham, Amy Haseltine, John
Kargul, John Mason, John Moses, Pasky Pascual, Renelle Rae, Jeremy Schreifels, Patricia
Scott, Ravi Srivastava, Doreen Sterling, Anita Street, Bryan-Wood Thomas, Chris Tirpak,
and Jim Vickery. We also wish to thank members of the public for their input. In
particular, Peter Rzeszotarski (Army Environmental Policy Institute), Troy Seidle (People
for Ethical Treatment of Animals), and Mike Paque (Ground Water Protection Council).
Their trenchant comments simultaneously broadened our horizon and focused our
debate, and, in the end, strengthened the report and recommendations. Thanks, also, to
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Andy Schwartz, from Industrial Economics, Inc., for his support organizing and
incorporating the many comments.
Finally, we are indebted to Gordon Schisler, the Acting Director of the Office of
Cooperative Environmental Management (OCEM) and his staff at EPA. This report
would not have been possible without the unflagging efforts of Sonia Altieri, the
Designated Federal Officer for the Emerging Trends and Issues Workgroup. Sonia's
persistence, creativity and passion toward her work spurred on the Workgroup, even in its
most trying hours. A heartfelt thanks, also, goes to Peter Redmond, the NACEPT
Designated Federal Officer who initially facilitated Workgroup meetings, but later
oversaw the work of the Council. Peter and Sonia both played critical roles in the final
editing and production of this report and we thank them for their extraordinary efforts.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Our nation's approach to environmental protection has been largely reactive.
Environmental laws, institutions and regulations have been created in response to existing
environmental and public health threats. Policymakers rarely have the opportunity to
contemplate long-term or emerging environmental challenges. Futures analysis, the art
and science of anticipating nascent environmental issues, encourages proactive planning
to prevent potential problems, rather than responding after the fact.
The National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology
(NACEPT) was asked by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Administrator to play a more strategic and visionary advisory role in March of 2000. In
response, NACEPT agreed to review and recommend environmental foresight methods,
and to identify emerging trends and issues relevant to EPA in the next five to ten years.
Understanding the environmental consequences of future social, economic and
technological changes can help EPA make better-informed and more strategic decisions.
This report recommends a comprehensive, continuous and institutional futures scanning
process to identify emerging trends and issues. It also identifies emerging opportunities
for EPA and describes the futures analysis framework developed by NACEPT to explore
beyond the horizon.
NACEPT recommends that the Administrator of EPA and her senior leadership
champion the use of environmental foresight methods. While some EPA offices have
made notable progress, more can be done to institutionalize futures analysis into Agency-
wide strategic planning processes. This will require the dedication of staff and resources
to make environmental foresight an EPA priority. This report identifies several
overarching proposals to improve EPA's ability to anticipate and address emerging
environmental challenges. These include the following:
+ Create an ongoing scanning process that involves all major parts of EPA.
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+ Support the ongoing work of EPA's Futures Network and provide
additional training on environmental scanning, scenario development, and
modeling.
+ Incorporate futures analysis into EPA's strategic planning. Integrate
scanning, scenarios, and other foresight methodologies into the formal
planning process.
In identifying the most significant emerging challenges and opportunities for
EPA, NACEPT created a foresight framework which divides human activities into six
broad themes for analysis. These themes include: World Population and Demographics,
Natural Resources, Science and Technology, Information Management and Access,
Economics and Commerce, and Politics and Social Evolution. The report analyzes each
of these themes and provides an overview of emerging developments entitled Forecast and
Context. It also describes the Desired State of the future and the Opportunities for EPA to
move forward. The opportunities are formal recommendations for the EPA
Administrator and the Agency's senior leadership.
This report divides Opportunities for EPA into immediate, mid-term and long-
term categories. A summary of the recommendations can be found on page 59 of this
report. The NACEPT Council recognizes that this long list of recommendations
represents a snapshot of emerging issues for EPA to proactively and strategically address.
NACEPT looks forward to continuing its work with the Administrator and the EPA
program offices to respond to these recommendations.
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The Environmental Future:
Emerging Challenges and Opportunities
for EPA
A Report of the
National Advisory Council for
Environmental Policy and Technology
SECTION I.
INTRODUCTION
In March 2000, the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) asked the National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology
(NACEPT) to play a more strategic and visionary role in advising EPA. In its efforts to
incorporate this new responsibility, NACEPT embarked on a journey that explored
strategic planning tools with a focus on environmental foresight. Specifically, NACEPT
agreed to recommend a process to identify emerging trends and to prepare its own
assessment of these challenges and their implications for EPA.
NACEPT is a federal advisory committee that counsels the EPA Administrator on
a broad range of domestic and international environmental policy, technology, and
management issues. The Council is a balanced panel of outside experts who represent
diverse interests from academia, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), business,
industry, state, tribal and local governments. To address the Administrator's charge, a
subset of the Council organized as the Emerging Trends and Issues Workgroup.
Workgroup members met with leading futurists, consulted with EPA program offices,
reviewed futures analysis processes and developed this report through numerous meetings
and conference calls. The Workgroup periodically reported its progress to the full
Council and submitted draft recommendations for discussion and modification. This
final report is the Council's response to the Administrator's request.
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SECTION I INTRODUCTION
Our Environmental Security
No one saw it coming and no one predicted the horror. The events of September
11, 2001 and the subsequent war on terrorism have turned the nation's focus to homeland
security and the work of disabling international terrorist organizations. These events have
permanently changed the way America does business and should serve as a clarion call for
Americans concerned with protecting our natural resources and our environmental legacy.
If we learned one thing from those events, it is the value of looking ahead - a concerted
effort at improving environmental foresight can help EPA secure the nation's vital
resources.
Like many federal agencies, EPA will play a critical role in our nation's war on
terrorism. One important role EPA can play involves the increased use of environmental
foresight. EPA should continue to assess the state of our nation's environment, to research
and identify environmental stressors, and to implement a national strategy to address
those stressors. But to effectively carry out this function, EPA will need to look
increasingly farther into the future to anticipate challenges and to identify opportunities
for environmental improvement and security. This future visioning should be a rational,
ongoing "aiming of the radar." The purpose of this report is to share the results and
recommendations from NACEPT's own first scan of the radar.
Environmental Surprise and Foresight
Ecologist C.S. Holling coined the term "environmental surprise" to refer to
environmental phenomena in which reality departs qualitatively from expectations.
Recent history is replete with examples of these unanticipated environmental events: the
depletion of the ozone layer by chlorofluorocarbons; the devastating biological effects of
DDT, thalidomide, and other chemicals; the nuclear disaster at Chernobyl and the
chemical catastrophe at Bhopal; and the emergence of AIDS and other lethal viruses.
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THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA SECTION
In the past, environmental laws, institutions and regulations were created in
response to existing environmental and public health threats. Future environmental
protection efforts must seek to anticipate emerging threats. Indeed, more environmental
surprises lie ahead as human numbers grow, economic output expands, globalization and
urbanization continue, and new technologies emerge. Some events will be inherently
unpredictable, but there are many others that can be anticipated and assessed, and their
negative effects mitigated or forestalled.
In its 1995 report, Beyond the Horizon, the EPA Science Advisory Board (SAB)
challenged EPA "to begin to anticipate future environmental problems, and then take
steps to avoid them, not just respond to them after the fact." While EPA has not fully
addressed the SAB's challenge, there has been some notable progress. Innovative
environmental foresight efforts are underway in the Office of the Chief Financial Officer
(OCFO), the Office of Radiation and Indoor Air (ORIA), the Office of Research and
Development (ORD), the Office of International Affairs (OIA), the Office of Prevention,
Pesticides, and Toxic Substances (OPPTS), and other units within EPA. Currently, the
Managing for Results Steering Group, led by OCFO, is examining ways to integrate
futures analysis into strategic planning. Also, OCFO established a Futures Network, a
group of EPA staff and managers who have strategic planning responsibilities or interest
in futures analysis. In 2001, OCFO twice sponsored the Federal Futures Practitioners
Roundtable, a forum for federal agency foresight and futures professionals. Still, these
efforts have yet to result in significant changes to Agency-wide strategic planning and
priority setting.
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SECTION II.
IMPROVING ERA'S
ENVIRONMENTAL FORESIGHT
In its charge, the National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and
Technology (NACEPT) was asked to recommend a process to enhance EPA's ability to
identify emerging trends and issues. To be effective, this process must be comprehensive,
continuous, and institutional.
Comprehensive means exploring all drivers and trends that can impact EPA's
mission, not just selected areas of concern. Like a good radar system, it must continually
scan the horizon in all directions. The organization of "themes" detailed below is one
framework for a comprehensive radar.
Continuous means a process that is more than a single snapshot; it should be an
ongoing, long-term process. The trends and issues identified in this document must be
viewed as exemplary, and EPA should understand that these may be constantly changing
or shifting.
Finally, by institutional, we mean that the process must be made a long-term
activity across EPA. This will require the dedication of staff and resources to monitor
future trends and present analyses to senior leadership on a frequent basis. Most
importantly, the Administrator and the Agency must prioritize environmental foresight
and futures analysis to make it a reality.
Futures analysis anticipates environmental issues and encourages proactive
planning to avoid problems, rather than after the fact responses. To implement a futures
process, EPA should utilize all the major elements of sound futures analysis. It must
include such methodological elements as: literature scanning, Delphi expert panels,
frequent extraction and prioritization of issues, and analysis and selection of issues
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SECTION II IMPROVING ERAS ENVIRONMENTAL FORESIGHT
relevant to EPA's mission. NACEPT can and should serve as a valuable resource for
several of the activities in this process. However, EPA needs to dedicate internal resources
to make the process fully effective.
In performing the tasks that led to this report, NACEPT followed a regimen that
included some of the core methods for sound futurist work. The Emerging Trends and
Issues Workgroup assigned individual members with particular expertise the task of
identifying major areas that impact EPA's mission. Brainstorming sessions on thematic,
organizational, and conceptual structures of issues followed the initial generation of ideas.
The Workgroup engaged in a consensus-building exercise with the use of Groupware
software - this is akin to Delphi techniques for consensus building - to establish relevance
of the issues and trends. In the future, if NACEPT advises an EPA "futurist unit," a more
formal process for identifying trends and consequences will need to be adopted. The
Workgroup's effort, to date, is a good start.
The Workgroup identified several ways of improving EPA's ability to anticipate
and address emerging environmental problems. They include:
+ Create and provide resources for an ongoing scanning process that
involves all major parts of EPA and make the findings available.
+ Support the ongoing work of the EPA Futures Network, which includes
participants from regional and headquarters offices, who have strategic
planning responsibilities or interest in environmental foresight.
+ Continue the work done by the Futures Network to provide training in
methods of environmental scanning, scenario development, modeling,
and other methodologies for environmental foresight.
+ Encourage environmental foresight efforts in offices and programs
throughout EPA, championed by the Administrator and EPA's senior
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THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA SECTION
leadership. Develop standard procedures for sharing and integrating the
findings of these efforts, but avoid forcing agreement on any single image
of the future.
+ Incorporate futures analysis into strategic planning. Scanning, scenarios,
and other foresight methodologies need to be integrated into the formal
planning process. The EPA strategic plan is a major step forward, but it
still lacks a forward-thinking approach. It helps EPA prioritize the
problems of today, but gives little or no attention to what tomorrow's
problems will be and how they might be prevented or mitigated by the
Agency. Environmental foresight tools can help EPA discover new
technologies to support a problem-preventing approach.
+ Evaluate current programs and environmental protection activities that
could provide warning - or be positioned to avoid the occurrence or
mitigate the impact - of unlikely but catastrophic events such as: terrorist
attacks, disease epidemics, loss of a keystone species, or unexpected
consequences of technological advances, etc.
+ Develop a workforce better able to assess emerging challenges and
equipped with skills and competencies that will be needed in the future.
EPA is already moving in the direction of hiring people with multiple
points of expertise, rather than specialists in a narrow field. It needs to
continue moving in this direction and to give even more attention to
hiring and promoting people with a wide breadth of knowledge and cross-
discipline experience. Better environmental foresight requires analysts
and managers who are able to take a broad cross-media perspective and see
connections across problem domains and disciplines.
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SECTION II IMPROVING ERAS ENVIRONMENTAL FORESIGHT
+ Regularly sample the opinions of a broad range of knowledgeable outside
experts to enhance cross-fertilization of ideas. Reach out to different
sectors not typically involved in regulation activities, such as those
involved in research and development on leading-edge technologies and
industrial processes.
+ Support more work at the edges (and across edges) of conceptual and
problem areas. Encourage the airing - and rigorous evaluation - of
unconventional and "outlier" views.
+ Continuously strive to make management systems more adaptive.
Organizational theory suggests that internal openness, active links to a
wide range of outside parties and stakeholders, a culture that rewards
continuous learning, and structural flexibility, make organizations better
able to deal with surprise.
+ Improve response capabilities for early warning, leadership alerting, and
rapid mobilization to deal with emerging developments that cannot be
anticipated.
These recommendations are designed to help EPA develop more comprehensive,
continuous and institutional environmental foresight. The next section of this report will
detail the recommendations that NACEPT developed after completing its own
environmental foresight process.
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SECTION III.
EMERGING CHALLENGES
AND OPPORTUNITIES
In developing its own views of the most important emerging challenges and
opportunities for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the National
Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology (NACEPT) strove to achieve
a comprehensive and global perspective. To ensure that its own scanning process was
comprehensive, NACEPT divided human activities into six broad themes for analysis:
World Population and Demographics
Natural Resources
Science and Technology
Information Management and Access
Economics and Commerce
Politics and Social Evolution
The bulk of this report deals with an analysis of each of these themes, including:
an overview of emerging developments entitled Forecast and Context, a description of
the Desired State that NACEPT believes is facilitative of best environmental
management and a sustainable future, and the Opportunities that exist for EPA to help
move toward this desired state. The opportunities are formal recommendations put
forward by the NACEPT Council for consideration by the Administrator and EPA's
leadership. The Summary of Recommendations section of the report categorizes these
recommendations by EPA's ability to implement them in the short, medium and long
term.
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THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA SECTION
WORLD POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS
Forecast and Context
The same underlying driving forces impact all global environmental issues:
population, level of consumption, and choice of technologies. While managing
population growth is not part of EPA's mandate, its activities, both domestic and
international, can have a catalytic impact on population dynamics, economic activity and
consumer behavior, and can contribute to significant reductions in both total global and
per capita environmental impacts.
The rate of world population growth has declined from a peak of 2.1 percent per
year in the early 1960's to 1.3 percent today.1 Even at this reduced rate, total global
population size will continue to increase substantially for several decades because the
growth is occurring from such a large base. Between now and the year 2025, population
is likely to increase as much as it did from the beginning of human history to World War
II.2 By then, the world is expected to have nearly 8 billion people. Almost all of this
growth will occur in developing nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America, with most of
the new population living in urban areas. The global urban population is projected to
increase from 2.6 billion in 1995 to over 4.5 billion in 2025.3
Rapid population growth, unprecedented rates of urbanization, and the
proliferation of megacities with populations exceeding 10 million will challenge the
management capabilities of many developing nations. Growth will put enormous
pressures on water supplies, agricultural soils, forests, and other renewable resources.
While the average age of populations in the Third World is falling, longer life spans in
much of the Western industrialized world are leading to an aging population and
increased demands on natural resources.
Problems of water and air pollution, and disposal of sewage and solid wastes, will
inevitably be severe in rapidly expanding urban agglomerations. Environmental
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SECTION III WORLD POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS
conditions, in turn, influence health. Poor environmental quality is already estimated to
be directly responsible for about 25 percent of all preventable ill health in the world today,
with diarrhea and acute respiratory infections heading the list.4
The problems are not restricted to areas beyond our borders. For example,
Southeast Florida, near the sensitive Everglades ecosystem, is already showing
environmental stress associated with rapidly expanding urban areas. The University of
Florida estimates that the populations of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties
will increase by more than 2 million from the current levels of approximately 5 million.
One challenge related to population growth stands out from all others: fostering
sustainable development at the global level, while fostering needed economic expansion in the
world's poorer nations. There is now widespread agreement that sustainable development
is the key to stabilizing population growth. Since the 1994 International Conference on
Population and Development in Cairo, a global consensus has emerged that the best
strategy for reducing fertility rates is to empower women, expand economic opportunity,
reduce poverty, and increase the availability of education and health care.
Sustainable development is also essential for reducing social unrest and the danger
of international terrorism. No mixture of conditions could be more combustible than
rapidly expanding numbers of restless young people living in poverty without opportunities
for improvement. Constant exposure to global media images of affluent lifestyles and
ideologies that preach hatred against America increase their hopelessness and anger.
Development is essential, but development along the pattern of the past is
impossible. If billions more people try to move toward U.S. per capita rates of fossil fuel
consumption, resource use, and waste generation, it would be environmentally disastrous
and fundamentally unsustainable. As a result, the United States has a special responsibility
to help create a new model for development - one with minimal environmental impacts.
As a world leader and the largest consumer of the world's resources, the United States has
the capacity and responsibility to help other nations protect the environment. Pioneering
new approaches to sustainable development and sharing new environmental technology
may well be our greatest contributions toward the future.
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THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA SECTION
Desired State
+ Global and regional populations are stabilized at levels that allow us to live
within our global means without undermining the ecological foundations
on which our economies are built.
+ Poor nations and disenfranchised populations within nations have
equitable access to resources needed for rapid development, job creation,
and investment in education and health care.
+ Environmental impacts per unit of Gross National Product (GNP) are
reduced sharply by environmentally superior technologies and
development strategies that simultaneously meet basic human needs and
protect the environment.
Opportunities for EPA
Elevate EPA's International Role. To do so effectively, EPA needs to
have the ability to provide credible information on the long-term implications of
population growth, nationally, as well as internationally. EPA should select and analyze
population data to help decision-makers understand the impacts.
Raise Awareness of the Importance of Sustainable
Development. When interacting with other parts of the federal government, raise
awareness of the importance of achieving rapid, sustainable development in poor nations
with high population growth rates. To the greatest extent possible, the United States must
lead by example, encouraging sustainable development at home.
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SECTION III WORLD POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS
Support Global Sustainable Development Networks. In
cooperation with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and other
international organizations, provide support for global networks of Third World
development experts, environmental protection officials, urban planners, and
environmentalists.
Facilitate Export of Environmentally Superior Technologies.
Help stimulate and organize inter-governmental efforts to export environmentally
superior technologies and environmental management methods that reduce impacts of
population growth. Revitalize the Environmental Trade Work Group (ETWG),
composed of 19 agency heads, which was established to organize more effective trade
promotion in exporting environmental technologies. The ETWG is co-chaired by EPA
and the Department of Commerce and is a subgroup of the Trade Promotion
Coordination Committee (TPCC).
Build Relationships with Developing Countries. EPA offices
currently work with sister areas in different parts of the world. Explore what would be
needed to target this coverage more effectively. Establish an "Envirocorps" - an
environmental Peace Corps - where citizens with professional experience in
environmental protection and different areas of environmental technology are trained and
paid to work in developing nations. EPA and the Peace Corps can collaborate more
closely on international environmental projects.
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NATURAL RESOURCES
Environmental issues arise primarily around the use of natural resources,
including energy, water, land, food, and wildlife. The principles for managing natural
resources in a sustainable way are similar across all these areas. Key principles include:
Efficiency. Decrease environmental impacts per unit of gross national product (GNP)
by using natural resources more efficiently. Increasing resource efficiency is virtually
synonymous with cutting waste because pollution represents wasted materials being
released into the environment.
Industrial Ecology. Using nature to model our technical systems, close the loops of
material flows by reusing or reconfiguring the material outputs of each process into inputs
for other purposes.
Appropriate Use of Renewable Resources. With the exception of energy
which is constantly supplanted by solar radiation, all terrestrial natural resource systems
are closed. These systems have no external sources to replenish raw material supplies.
Emphasize the use of renewable resources that nature will continue to provide and
replenish indefinitely. Keep renewable resource use at, or below, the maximum
sustainable yield to maintain the stock from which the flow of resources derives.
Social Weil-Being. In making decisions about sources of energy, water supplies,
food, and other important issues, strive to understand what approach will most likely
improve the social well-being of everyone, especially those who have suffered injustices,
poverty, and other barriers to achieving their potential.
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Sustainable Development. Use natural resources in a way that meets today's
needs without degrading those resources and making it difficult for future generations to
meet their needs. Find solutions to natural resource issues that are simultaneously
beneficial for economic development, the environment, and social well-being. Only
solutions that work on all three levels will lead to the kind of future we want to create.
NATURAL RESOURCES - ENERGY
Forecast and Context
The world is not facing an energy supply crisis, but rather an energy management
problem. The United States alone has coal reserves that could last for centuries and, more
importantly, abundant solar radiation will be available for billions of years. The primary
challenge today is energy management: to reduce the carbon intensity of the energy
economy and to facilitate the conversion to renewable sources and hydrogen storage.
Decarbonization is necessary to limit environmental impacts, from multi-pollutant air
emissions to global climate change.5 The key barrier to decarbonization is not economic
or technological - it is the lingering misconception that carbon emission limits lead to a
reduction in economic growth. The evidence is conclusive that carbon and economic
output can be decoupled.6
Increasing energy efficiency is the fastest and cheapest decarbonization strategy.
In the United States, producing one unit of gross domestic product (GDP) requires less
than one-fifth as much energy as it did two centuries ago.7 Just between 1973 and 1986,
increasing energy efficiency made it possible for the GDP to grow by 35 percent with zero
growth in energy consumption.8 Thanks to advancing technology, much larger - and
highly profitable - opportunities are available for increasing efficiency further.
Changing energy sources constitutes the other principal decarbonization strategy.
Industrial nations have already gone through three historic waves of decarbonization.
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THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA SECTION
Coal released one-fifth to one-tenth of the carbon per unit of energy of the wood it
displaced as the dominant fossil fuel.9 By the 1960's, a lower carbon and more portable
fossil fuel, oil, displaced coal as the dominant energy source, marking the second wave of
decarbonization.10 Now, natural gas, the cleanest fossil fuel, whose combustion releases
the least carbon dioxide, is ascending toward a dominant role. Decarbonization is
arguably the most fundamental trend in the evolution of the energy system.11
Now a fourth wave of decarbonization may be appearing on the horizon with the
emergence of hydrogen-based energy technologies, such as fuel cells. Initially derived
from natural gas, and possibly from ultra-clean coal technology, hydrogen will eventually
be produced by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen using renewable energy.
Moving toward a hydrogen economy would tend to take the energy system away from
large scale generating technologies toward virtual utilities composed of networks of
microturbines, solar cells, fuel cells, and other micropower technologies. This
environmentally benign image of the energy future is being advocated by leaders of some
of the world's largest energy companies, such as Royal Dutch Shell, which has created
Shell Hydrogen, and BP, which now stands for "Beyond Petroleum."
Desired State
+ Energy is used with high efficiency in buildings, transportation, industry
and consumer products.
+ Major reductions are achieved in the amount of waste (pollution) going
into the environment from the production and consumption of energy.
+ Decarbonization continues through increasing energy efficiency and
changing energy sources.
+ Renewable energy is ultimately the primary energy source, forming the
basis for a completely carbon-free, renewable hydrogen economy.
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+ Energy choices are approached as choices about how to make the world
work for everyone over the long term - economically, environmentally,
and socially.
Opportunities for EPA
Encourage Total Accounting of Energy Technologies. Foster
objective, rigorous comparative analyses of the full range of costs and benefits associated
with expanding the use of different energy technologies. Bring energy efficiency
improvements into the comparative analyses, along with the full range of energy supply
options. The analyses should look at cradle-to-grave and intergenerational costs and
benefits, including impacts on natural systems, human health, and social well-being. The
assessments should consider the implications different options would have if they were
adopted, not only in the United States, but also by developing nations. Some aspects of
this activity can appropriately be done within EPA. Much of it would be best done in
cooperative relationships with other agencies and leading research institutions.
Utilize the Clean Air Act State Implementation Plans (SIPsf
Process to Spur Investment in Renewables and Energy Efficiency.
Work in partnership with the Department of Energy (DOE) to aggressively break through
the barriers that inhibit full crediting of energy efficiency and renewable energy
technologies in SIPs. If EPA fully credits energy efficiency and renewable energy
programs in SIPs, more capital would be channeled into technologies that can
decarbonize the energy system over the long run, as well as produce immediate reductions
in a wide variety of air emissions.
Partner with the DOE on the New Freedom Car Project. The
administration recently announced a new program to develop and promote hydrogen fuel
cell development. The Freedom Car program hopes to have hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
on the road within the next ten years.
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Support Innovative Research on Sequestering Carbon
Dioxide. A number of innovative concepts for using fossil fuels with minimum
climatic harm have yet to receive serious attention. For example, academic researchers
have suggested the possibility of reforming natural gas into hydrogen at the wellhead and
re-injecting the carbon dioxide produced in this process into the geological formation
from which the gas was taken. EPA should scan for other innovative sequestration
concepts and ensure that they receive attention in other agencies and the private sector.
Expand the Energy Star Program. Expand the highly successful and
cost-effective Energy Star program to other sectors, such as grocery stores and the health
care industry. Partner with DOE to develop energy efficiency programs relevant to these
new sectors.
Establish a Green Vehicle Labeling Program. The concept of green
labeling for vehicles has been developed and discussed in the Green Vehicle Guide (EPA,
Mobile Sources). Putting this concept into practice would give consumers better
information on vehicle fuel efficiency, as well as new information on emissions,
manufacturing toxins, etc.
Promote Market-Oriented Measures for Reducing Global
Warming. Within the executive branch and in interactions with Congress, promote
the adoption of market-oriented policy measures that reduce global warming by
increasing energy efficiency.
Encourage Research on Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier.
Encourage research and development on hydrogen as an energy carrier and energy storage
medium. Ensure that environmental issues related to hydrogen are identified at the front
end, so that potential problems are avoided and an appropriate federal regulatory role is
developed (e.g., Design for Environment in fuel cell production, fuel cell recycling and
disposal, and pipeline issues).
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Use Publicly Owned Sewage Plants to Demonstrate
Hydrogen Technologies. Create demonstration projects with major methane
sources, such as publicly owned wastewater treatment plants (sewage plants), to
demonstrate methane-to-hydrogen conversion and the use of hydrogen technologies.
Assess regulatory and economic constraints that need to be overcome. Currently, every
wastewater treatment plant generates considerable quantities of methane, a major
greenhouse gas. Many use this methane for heating digestion process units during winter
months, but 80 percent or more may be flared off in summer. Converting methane to
hydrogen would allow these plants to generate a substantial amount of their own
electricity on-site year-round.
NATURAL RESOURCES - WATER
Forecast and Context
Water is the world's most important natural resource. It is essential for human
and ecosystem health and for the production of all ecosystem goods and services. It is the
primary input to agriculture and the most widely used resource in industrial processes. It
has aesthetic, cultural and recreational value. It is also the natural resource where the most
severe environmental problems occur the soonest.
Today, 2.3 billion people live in water-stressed countries where there are growing
conflicts between different users of water.12 Of this group, 1.7 billion live in areas of real
water scarcity, where drought and water diversions for agriculture and industry limit the
amount of water available to meet people's basic needs.13 In the quest for more water,
many of the major aquifers around the world are being drained at rates that exceed their
natural recharge rates. By 2025, an estimated 2.7 billion people will live in areas
experiencing severe water scarcity, creating a potential for regional conflicts over water
rights in the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and large parts of Asia.14 Even where water
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is not scarce, it is often contaminated. Globally, only about 10 percent of all wastewater
is treated before it enters rivers and other bodies of water.15 On every continent,
groundwater, as well as surface water, is being contaminated and rising sea levels from
global warming threaten further contamination. As populations and economies grow,
water use on the pattern of the past will prove unsustainable and "water efficiency" will
become as important a concept as energy efficiency.
The United States, as a whole, does not yet face widespread, serious water shortage
problems. However, the warning signs are clear: the massive Ogallala aquifer has been
severely depleted, Great Lakes water elevations are at their lowest levels in decades, the
California agricultural economy consumes far more water for irrigation purposes than can
be sustained over the long term, and rapid urbanization of rural and previously
undeveloped regions (e.g., Las Vegas) is proceeding without consideration of water supply
concerns. Disruptions in the hydrological cycle due to global warming or other
meteorological factors may make drought conditions more common over the decades
ahead, and the increased draw down of aquifers may limit development in some areas, and
force major agricultural management changes in others. Moreover, the draw down of
deep aquifers brings water with higher salt concentrations to the surface, potentially
exposing croplands to dust-bowl vulnerabilities. Major water management issues already
impacting the United States include maintaining and improving the wastewater
infrastructure to avoid further water contamination.
Disputes over water management are taking place in the arid Southwest and
elsewhere in the United States. Georgia, Alabama and Florida have been fighting for years
over two river systems that give life to the Southeast. In 1997, they decided to form an
interstate compact to develop an agreement on how the rivers should be used. But after
three years, five extensions and at least $20 million, there's no agreement in sight.
Much of the nation's infrastructure for drinking water, wastewater, and
stormwater is aging. Increased demand on public water systems, caused by a growing
population, will make it difficult to maintain potable water quality standards. Many
system managers are not budgeting for, nor do they have sufficient access to funds, to
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SECTION III NATURAL RESOURCES - WATER
make the investments in infrastructure maintenance that are likely to be necessary. In
agriculture, lack of investment in irrigation infrastructure is causing growing problems of
unnecessary water loss from canal leakage, infiltration, and salinization. New investments
are required in "precision agriculture" systems that apply only as much water (and other
inputs) as needed, when needed. Water subsidies that contribute to excessive and wasteful
use magnify expenditures needed for infrastructure.
Despite significant improvements in water quality, one-fifth of freshwater fish
stocks are still considered vulnerable or endangered because of pollution or habitat
disruption.16 Perhaps the most serious problem is groundwater contamination by
nitrates, pesticides, petrochemicals, chlorinated solvents, radioactive wastes, saltwater, and
heavy metals. Groundwater that becomes polluted tends to stay polluted for a very long
time; the average residence time for groundwater is 1,400 years, as opposed to 16 days for
river water.17
In the United States, water contamination from point sources has decreased
dramatically over the 30-year life of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act. Addressing
remaining water quality issues, such as contamination from pharmaceuticals, antibiotics,
food additives and pesticides, will require watershed-based approaches that include all
contributors: traditional point sources, as well as non-point sources, including agriculture,
silviculture, airborne deposition, and stormwater runoff. Innovations will be needed in
environmentally advanced agriculture, closed-loop production and consumption systems,
and green chemistry to eliminate the use of persistent toxic chemicals.
Desired State
+ There is sufficient usable water to meet population needs in the United
States and around the world.
+ Technologies for achieving higher water efficiency are universally adopted
in agriculture, industry and residential use.
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+ Water rights issues are fairly mediated, avoiding conflicts over access to
water.
+ Surface water and groundwater are protected from contamination.
+ Water is priced at its true cost to reduce wasteful use.
Opportunities for EPA
Develop a Holistic Approach to Water and the Environment.
Create a water task force with representatives from several offices in EPA, other federal
agencies, and external stakeholders to take a more holistic look at water policy and the
environment. Identify major watersheds across the country for specific improvement.
Examine a broad range of issues, from aquifer depletion and contamination to water
efficiency and the level of investment needed to maintain aging water infrastructure.
Examine potential environmental implications of major water policy options. Make
recommendations for the integration of water quality objectives at different levels into a
single coherent package.
While there has been significant progress in adopting a more holistic approach to
managing water resources over the last decade, existing statutory authorities make it
difficult to run programs on a watershed basis. EPA's Office of Water is working to better
integrate its authorities under the Clean Water Act and the Safe Drinking Water Act.
Integrate Water Efficiency with Water Quality Standards.
Integrate water use efficiency and appropriate reuse into water quality standards and other
environmental regulations. A number of current regulatory programs are based on
achieving technical standards measured by concentration of pollutants per unit of water.
Increased water efficiency goals conflict with these concentration-based regulatory
standards.
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Support an Effective Market Environment to Minimize
Generating Hazardous Wastes. Sixty percent of U.S. hazardous liquid waste -
34 billion liters of solvents, heavy metals and radioactive materials - is injected into deep
groundwater around the country by means of injection wells. EPA should assess
opportunities to eliminate generating all hazardous waste through pollution
prevention/source reduction (P2) and through reprocessing/reuse; identify the technical,
regulatory and economic barriers to P2 and reuse; and encourage a market environment
in which these beneficial practices become the preferred business option.
Redouble Efforts to Effectively Include Non-Point Sources in
Water Management Programs. Enhance EPA's capacity to monitor, model and
mitigate non-point source contributions to water contamination and overall
environmental degradation. Develop better models for estimating adverse health and
economic impacts of non-point pollution. Increase efforts to educate citizens and
policymakers about the value of non-point source mitigation and to mobilize political and
technical support for federal, state, and local efforts to address the problem.
NATURAL RESOURCES -
BIODIVERSITY, LAND AND FOOD
Forecast and Context
Biodiversity, land and food are deeply intertwined resource issues. Habitat loss
and degradation are the leading causes of declining biodiversity, affecting 85 percent of all
threatened species.18 The leading cause of habitat loss is conversion of land for low-
density urban development, agriculture, and forest plantations. The other leading causes
of declining biodiversity are invasive species and pollution, primarily from agricultural
runoff.
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THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA SECTION
A generation ago, some scientists looking at the loss of wetlands, rainforests, and
other biologically rich areas feared that the total number of species could be cut by 25 to
50 percent within a generation or two - the greatest decline in biodiversity since the
cataclysmic end of the age of the dinosaurs. While some field studies suggest that species
are more resilient than originally thought,19 other recent studies suggest that climate
change may pose major new threats to biodiversity. Rates of global warming may exceed
the migration capabilities of many species, and progressive shifts in climatic conditions
will cause losses of existing habitat and reductions in habitat patch size.20
Land conservation which encourages greater density in urban and suburban
development is one of the most important requirements for preserving biodiversity.
More clustered development reduces the entire footprint of an urban population. This is
important everywhere, but especially crucial in areas like Southeastern Florida around the
sensitive Everglades ecosystem where the population is projected to increase by 1.8 million
between 2000 and 2020.21 Clustered development also maintains the recharge rate of
groundwater aquifers, which is reduced by impervious urban surfaces. Urban infill and high
density development patterns go hand-in-hand with establishing green spaces that are off
limits to development, and buying land for parks and open space to protect wildlife.
Limiting urban sprawl can also protect prime agricultural land. For example, in
California's Central Valley, where the population is expected to triple by 2040, cropland
losses could be cut by 55 percent simply by building 15 residential units per hectare,
instead of the more typical 7 units.22 A denser urban environment also facilitates the use
of mass transit, saves money on construction and upkeep of infrastructure of many kinds,
provides lower income people easier access to jobs, and tends to promote a greater sense
of community.
The spread of exotic species of plants, animals and diseases is now second only to
habitat loss as a cause of declining biodiversity and ecological destruction. The slow
migration of species into new habitats has always been a part of nature, but the
globalization of commerce and travel has accelerated this process so drastically that it
deserves to be considered a new phenomenon in the history of life. Bioinvasion by
invasive species needs to be treated as a major new challenge, as important as regulating
the pollution of land, water and air.
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Reducing pollution, especially the agricultural runoff from erosion, over
fertilization, and heavy use of pesticides, is the other major requirement for preserving
biodiversity. One of the greatest challenges ahead is developing an environmentally
advanced agriculture that puts together the most environmentally sound and productive
methods from many different areas including: conventional industrial agriculture,
agricultural biotechnology, precision agriculture, integrated pest management, organic
farming, and ecological engineering.
Desired State
+ Maximum biodiversity is preserved, and biodiversity is recognized and
used as the primary indicator of "ecological health."
+ Land is conserved and used efficiently through urban infill, combined
with the recycling of land and increasing mass transit-oriented
development patterns (e.g., brownfields development, smart growth
initiatives, etc.).
+ Green spaces are preserved and made off limits to development.
Infrastructure corridors are used in environmentally beneficial ways.
+ Movements of invasive species are tracked and quickly controlled.
+ Environmentally advanced agricultural methods are developed and widely
adopted.
We are able to produce sufficient quantities of healthy foods to feed
ourselves and contribute to the world food supply. We are able to do this
without degrading the soil, polluting or overusing water supplies, or
having other negative impacts that could limit the ability of future
generations to meet their own food needs.
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Opportunities for EPA
Develop Biodiversity Indicators. Use biodiversity as a primary
indicator of ecological health. Work with the academic community and other
stakeholders to develop biodiversity indicators for different ecosystems, and utilize these
indicators in setting ecological health objectives and in developing ecosystem
management strategies.
Develop Natural Resource Damage Assessment as a
Management Tool. Employ cost accounting concepts developed for the Natural
Resource Damage Assessments (NRDA) and used in establishing Superfund liabilities for
other purposes within EPA. Use these concepts preventatively - as management tools in
environmental planning and permitting - not just for remediation after damage is done.
Expand Efforts to Control Invasive Species. Significantly expand
EPA's efforts and coordination with other agencies to monitor and control the
introduction of non-native or invasive species. For example, explore possible joint
enforcement opportunities with the states, port authorities and the Coast Guard in
restricting point-source discharge of water ballast released by ships. Explore potential
roles related to land-based invasives, an area where EPA is now doing virtually nothing.
Play a leadership role on this issue in the National Invasive Species Council and the
Commission for Environmental Cooperation, which was created by the environmental
side accords to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
Develop Natural Resource Partnerships. Continue to develop
partnerships and support roles with state Departments of Natural Resources (DNRs),
other federal agencies, tribes, local government agencies, commerce and industry, and
non-governmental organizations. EPA has not taken full advantage of opportunities to
work with these entities, but they are the organizations with the most hands-on
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responsibilities for protecting wildlife and biodiversity. Local and national non-profit
land conservation and land trust groups have helped protect more than 23 million acres
of land and water in the United States. EPA should encourage the transfer of technology
and innovations to these and other groups to facilitate better decision-making.
Sponsor Research on Benefits and Costs of Higher Density
Development. Sponsor research on the comparative costs and benefits of more
compact, mass transit-oriented development patterns and conventional low density
development. Look at lifecycle economic costs and environmental impacts. Identify the
cost accounting factors that have favored fringe development (e.g. not seeing the full costs
up front, tax and other policies that subsidize development on the fringe). Include in this
analysis a discussion of non-traditional pollution, i.e., noise and light.
Use SEPs to Encourage Land Conservation. Expand the use of
Supplemental Environmental Projects (SEPs) to encourage environmental partnerships
for land preservation in urban areas. A SEP is an environmental project that a violator of
environmental regulations agrees to perform as part of the settlement of an enforcement
action. Although the violator is not legally required to perform a SEP, the monetary
penalty imposed on the violator will typically be reduced if the violator agrees to perform
an acceptable project. Environmental Restoration and Protection, one of the main
categories of acceptable SEPs, allows for purchasing land for conservation programs.
Study Impacts Of Sea Level Rise. Initiate and coordinate an interagency
examination of the impacts of sea level rise on U.S. shorelines, wetlands, and other
affected ecosystems, particularly in the southeastern United States. The examination
should also assess impacts on aquaculture and other marine-related economic activities.
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Advocate a New Concept of "Environmentally Advanced
Agriculture." Assume the role of intergovernmental advocate for a new concept of
environmentally advanced agriculture and work with the Department of Agriculture to
develop the concept. The agriculture community now tends to think in terms of a
polarization between conventional industrial agriculture and organic farming. A new,
non-ideological concept is needed that can be a framework for integrating the best ideas
from precision agriculture, integrated pest management, and other areas.
Develop a National Strategy to Address the Public Health
Impacts of Antibiotics, Hormones and Other Additives in Food
Production. Review research on the use of antibiotics, hormones, and other additives
in food production to assess the state of knowledge about how they pass into the
environment and impacts they may have on public health and other organisms. Identify
gaps in understanding and formulate research agendas to address those gaps. Coordinate
with other agencies and research institutions to address those gaps and to develop a national
strategy focusing on the public health impacts of additives in the nation's food supply.
NATURAL RESOURCES - AIR
Forecast and Context
Air quality improvement is one of the U.S. EPA's greatest achievements. Few
people appreciate how polluted our nation's air would be today if not for the success of
the Clean Air Act. Yet a new, multi-pollutant approach will be needed to yield further
improvements on emerging air quality issues such as: the continuing ozone problems in
densely populated areas, the emergence of fine particulate matter as a health threat, the
emissions from diffuse sources that are difficult to control and to regulate, air toxins, and
the consequences of atmospheric interactions. Shifts to more environmentally advanced
technologies, especially in energy generation and transportation, offer great promise.
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The possibility of having to expand the use of coal in conventional power
generation may pose severe air quality problems. This could happen for electricity
generation if renewable technologies are not developed rapidly, or if the expansion of
nuclear power is rejected due to concerns for cost, waste disposal, safety and proliferation.
It could also happen if political instability in other countries threatens our access to oil.
The EPA Science Advisory Board has noted the possibility of unanticipated
environmental problems related to the deposition of airborne contaminants on land and
water. Many airborne chemicals are more harmful to human health and ecological
systems when acting in the presence of other chemicals. As a result, the deposition and
accumulation of multiple chemicals over time may lead to health and environmental
problems not anticipated by focusing primarily on air exposures.
Global warming is the greatest long-term, air-related problem because climate
change will affect all other ecological systems. The United States is the largest contributor
to this problem. With four percent of the world's population, we account for 24 percent
of total global emissions of greenhouse gases.23 In Kyoto, the United States agreed to a
seven percent cut below 1990 levels by 2008-2012. However, we now stand at 13 percent
above 1990 levels - the highest of all major industrial nations.24 In addition to chemicals
that contribute to climate change, there are a number of conventional and hazardous air
pollutants that require international attention and response.
From the perspective of human health, indoor air quality may well pose the
greatest environmental risk.25 A number of studies over the past decade have used
portable monitoring equipment to track where people actually experience the largest
exposures to different toxic chemicals. In the great majority of cases, these exposures
occur inside buildings. While regulations have focused on emissions to the outside
environment, exposures are occurring primarily in indoor environments. The exposures
come from offgassing from carpets and furniture, sunlight falling on plastics and other
materials, construction products, cleaning products, office machines, mildew and molds,
and a variety of other sources. Indoor environments do not lend themselves well to
traditional command-and-control approaches, so policy innovation will be essential to
make major improvements in indoor air quality.
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Desired State
+ Total exposure to air pollution from all sources does not adversely impact
public health, even for susceptible population segments.
+ Air quality does not have an adverse impact on the ecological health of
forests and other natural systems, or the economic value of land and
communities. Air throughout the nation is not contaminated by toxins,
criteria pollutants, or particulates.
+ A new ideal of "Healthy Buildings" is motivating all companies and
government organizations whose work affects building construction and
furnishing to eliminate toxins from indoor environments.
Opportunities for EPA
Develop a Multi-Pollutant Approach. Develop an integrated, multi-
pollutant approach that includes the sources, the chemistry, and processes of
contaminants. Compare the impacts and fate in common for many pollutants, studying
and addressing them in a holistic way.
Re-establish an Advanced Automotive Technology
Partnership. As the Freedom Car initiative moves ahead to the challenge of using
hydrogen as a mobility fuel, we should not neglect the research problems that still remain
related to the more near-term deployment of hydrogen vehicles. The Partnership for a
New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) between government and automakers focused
largely on developing cleaner, more fuel-efficient electric hybrid vehicles. In the PNGV
program, all U.S. automakers were scheduled to begin producing fuel-efficient electric
hybrids within the next few years. However, there are still considerable advanced research
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problems to solve. The private-public partnership should be re-established to develop
cost-effective technologies for large scale deployment of advanced fuel-efficient personal
vehicles by the end of the decade. Key areas for near-term cooperation include: advanced
internal combustion engines, lightweight body materials, and other aspects of ultra-
efficient vehicle design.
Continue to Support Research and Development for
Advanced Transit, Including Commercial Trucks. Explore the potential
for a partnership with the Department of Transportation (DOT) to study transportation
efficiency alternatives, including future point-to-point on-demand transportation, and
renewable energy powered light rail and high speed inter-urban systems. The 21st
Century Truck Partnership is the private-public partnership which develops and deploys
the technologies necessary for safe, clean and efficient commercial trucks and buses. Key
areas for advances include: clean and highly efficient engines, fuel cells, hybrid
powertrains, lightweight materials, and ultra-efficient aerodynamic designs.
Support Research on Ultra-Clean Coal Technology. Partner with
DOE to explore the feasibility of "ultra-clean coal technology" that could allow
significantly greater coal use without incurring climatic harm. For example, one concept
that has been suggested but not yet explored is to extract hydrogen from coal for use in
fuel cells, and to sequester CO2 and other waste gases released in the process.
Use Voluntary Cooperation to Address Indoor
Environmental Quality. Increase awareness and expand EPA's role related to
indoor air and the indoor environment. The EPA study, Healthy Buildings, Healthy
People, promotes voluntary initiatives to increase public information about construction
materials, furniture, carpets, and cleaning chemicals.
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Forecast and Context
Today's rapid pace of scientific discovery and technological change will likely
accelerate. We are still near the beginning of multiple revolutions in information and
communications, biotechnology and genomics, materials and manufacturing, energy
efficiency and production, transportation, construction, and agriculture. Because these
developments interact, advances in one area stimulate progress in others. The result is a
dramatic technological acceleration.
This acceleration will bring new capabilities for identifying pollutants and better
science for assessing risks. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) needs to
continually improve the science behind its risk assessments. In this and other endeavors,
EPA will be significantly challenged to keep up with positive developments in areas such
as: early biological markers of degradation, risk analysis for different genetic
subpopulations, sensor technology, and geo-spatial technologies for environmental
intelligence. The manufacturing of goods and services will become increasingly boutique,
while technological acceleration will pose difficult problems. New chemicals and products
will be developed faster than they can be tested. There will be unanticipated
environmental impacts of technologies thought to be benign, and new environmental
issues around genetic engineering, including concerns for biological terrorism.
Technology will also evolve faster than accompanying legal, moral, ethical and economic
frameworks.
Nanotechnology, the capability to manipulate things at the molecular, and
eventually the atomic level, will fundamentally change materials science. In chemistry,
designer enzymes will allow biological reactors to manufacture a myriad of substances,
from fibers to pharmaceuticals, with production capacities far greater than today's
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chemical catalysis. In biology and medicine, genetic construction will allow the repair of
defective genes, as well as the creation of new DNA sequences, resulting in entirely new
genetic characteristics. In environmental science, highly efficient microorganisms and
smart membranes designed to filter out specific compounds and metals will enable ever
greater pollutant removal efficiencies. And in electro-engineering, miniaturization will
continue nearly unabated to the level at which quantum mechanical effects become
dominant.
The good news is that these new technologies and production processes can
sharply reduce environmental impacts. Such advances may result in developing nations
becoming more affluent without degrading their environments. These technologies will
be based on improving resource efficiency, closing the loops of materials flows, and other
Design for the Environment strategies. We already know how to double the efficiency of
electric motors, triple the efficiency of lights, automobiles and most household appliances,
and increase the efficiency of buildings by factors ranging from two to ten. In the same
way, improvements in durability, recycling, minimum materials design, and elimination
of waste can enable far less manufacturing to produce the same desired flow of products
and services. This is why the European Union recently adopted the goal of a fourfold
("Factor Four") gain in resource productivity. The Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD) Environment Ministers, the government of
Sweden, and a number of distinguished industrial and academic leaders in Europe and
Japan have gone further to advocate a Factor Ten goal for 2050.
Today's best practice engineering incorporates environmental considerations from
the outset into the basic design and redesign of products, processes, and technical and
management systems. An emerging field of green chemistry is developing chemical
technologies that minimize or eliminate hazardous substances during the design,
manufacture, and use of chemical products and processes. The most advanced industrial
designs are increasingly closing the loops of materials flows, reusing materials or turning
the waste of one process into feedstock for another. DuPont, for example, recycles nearly
a billion dollars of used photographic film per year using a process called reverse logistics.
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This kind of approach may ultimately lead us to eliminate the entire concept of waste and
treat pollution as a design failure. Emissions will be regarded as unsaleable production.
The motto of businesses developing the most advanced production systems is, "If we can't
sell it, we shouldn't produce it - we should design it out."
These new generations of environmentally advanced technologies are, or soon will
be, practical from both an engineering and economic perspective. But, they must
overcome many barriers, from lack of knowledge among investors to environmental
regulations that thwart innovation. Speeding the emergence of these technologies is a
fundamental environmental and business challenge today.
Despite the impressive gains in knowledge and technology, environmental
decision-makers almost always face uncertainty in terms of available data, its
interpretation, and the likely impact of alternative responses to collection and evaluation.
In an effort to address this paralysis by analysis, some governments have embraced a
concept referred to as the "precautionary principle." As invoked in the Rio Declaration
on Environment and Development, the precautionary principle states, "Where there are
threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of scientific certainty shall not be used as a
reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation."
The challenge lies in defining threats in a way that is protective but not prohibitive. As
noted earlier, improving the quality of analytical and scientific tools used in EPA risk
assessments will lead to more informed decision-making.
Desired State
+ Design for the Environment is a universal practice. People working in
applied science, technological development and engineering have
environmental objectives in mind from the outset of their work.
+ Environmentally advanced technologies in all areas of the economy utilize
energy and materials efficiently and use closed loop processes that
eliminate the concept of waste.
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+ Good science is the basis for justifying and adjusting environmental
standards. EPA is able not only to keep up with developments in science
and technology, but also to directly facilitate scientific and technological
innovations that help it effectively carry out its mission.
Opportunities for EPA
Create Partnerships for Energy Efficiency. Collaborate with the
DOE to leverage investments in energy efficiency from the nation's largest capital pools
by creating partnerships with sectors neither organization has traditionally engaged.
Among them are: the financial community, property-casualty insurance industry, bonding
industry, community development sector, commercial leasing sector, and the group of
stakeholders investing in Clean Air Act compliance. Using Cooperative Research and
Development Agreements, work with these sectors to quantify and verify the economic
benefits of energy efficiency in terms credible to industry leaders. Technology verification
would give industry greater confidence in the benefits of energy efficiency, leading to
greater investments as verified technologies are mainstreamed into each industry's capital
outlays and customer incentive structures.
Develop New Regulatory Relief Strategies to Encourage
Technological Innovation. Review EPA program areas to assess emerging
technological innovations that involve major improvements in resource efficiency, closed
loop processes, green chemistry and other Design for the Environment approaches.
Develop new programs, faster and less cumbersome than Project XL, that demonstrate the
environmental performance of innovative technologies, while rewarding superior
environmental performance with regulatory relief and flexibility. Mandate careful
monitoring of environmental impacts and regulatory action within a reasonable period of
time if problems arise.
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Marshal Sound Science to Develop and Defend Standards.
Develop greater scientific capacity for developing realistic, protective environmental
performance standards and the legal capacity for supporting states, tribes and local
officials in defending the environmental standards they are mandated to enforce. Create
a one-stop help desk where state, tribal and local officials can locate EPA scientific and
legal expertise.
Lead by Example. Work systematically to make EPA facilities and
operations a model of technologies and practices that need to come into widespread use.
For example, upgrade EPA facilities with more efficient lighting, glazing, and other
building systems wherever feasible. Make choices of carpets, furniture, cleaning products,
office machines and other products on the basis of energy efficiency and indoor
environmental quality. Use hybrid fuel electric vehicles and fuel cell powered vehicles as
they become available.
Promote Emerging Developments in Biotechnology and
Nanotechnology. Support ongoing environmental scanning to identify emerging
developments in biotechnology and nanotechnology. The scan should identify potential
dangers that may need to be addressed by policy actions, as well as developments with
high potential for facilitating environmental improvement. Examples include: emerging
bioremediation methods, biotechnology approaches to hydrogen production, and bio-
industrial processes that can replace the use of toxic chemicals and inherently dirty
combustion processes. EPA should also explore and facilitate developing environmental
monitoring technologies - from real time pollutant sensors to DNA micro arrays - for
assessing human and ecological health.
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INFORMATION MANAGEMENT AND ACCESS
Forecast and Context
Information - coupled with public education and access - is central for aligning
the efficiency of markets with environmental protection. Greater use of market-based
strategies and voluntary agreements require informed involvement by all participants.
Informed involvement requires access to high quality information. We will find it much
easier to reach agreement on solutions if all stakeholders have access to information they
trust about key factors such as:
+ Changes in the state of the environment
+ Location and extent of environmental hazards
+ Risks to human health and ecosystems
+ Policies, programs, and institutional responsibilities for environmental
protection
+ Environmental performance of corporations and public institutions
+ Knowledge and technical innovations for solving environmental problems
+ Product evaluations for making environmentally sound purchasing choices
Better coordination is needed to integrate information from many sources.
Where appropriate, information needs to be presented in ways that are easy to
understand, with technical terms minimized or clearly explained. Where feasible,
organizing information by watershed or by community or zip code-specific formats can
make it more useful to citizens. Greater support for environmental education can help
the public understand environmental issues and interpret available information.
Providing vital information in a variety of other languages, as well as English, can help
more citizens gain access.
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Technological progress will create dramatic new capabilities for information
collection and management in future generations. For example, improved remote sensing
using high spatial and spectral resolution satellites, airborne, and in-situ observation
systems will allow for near real time monitoring of a wide variety of environmental
problems. This information can be fed into automated change-detection decision
support systems to provide alerts to both regulators and the regulated community. The
rapid convergence of advancing geospatial information systems (GIS), visualization
products and Internet capabilities will revolutionize the display of environmental
information. Advances toward miniaturized, ultra-sensitive, inexpensive sensor
technologies will allow communities, businesses, and even individuals to monitor
exposures. In the design of some environmental intelligence systems, a balance will need
to be found between the advantages of completely open access and a need to block access
to information that could be used to carry out acts of environmental terrorism.
New technical capabilities will empower non-governmental organizations, as well
as governments and corporations. Global Forest Watch, an international network of local
forest protection groups organized by the World Resources Institute, suggests the
possibilities ahead. Local groups linked by the Internet and a common data-gathering
format will eventually monitor all of the world's remaining old growth forests, recording
on digital maps any illegal cutting, burning, or other violations of forest leases. This
information will be posted on the Internet.
Better and more widely available information changes behaviors. For example,
the disclosures of toxic releases under the Emergency Planning and Community Right to
Know Act quickly led to voluntary reductions - more than 40 percent in the first five
years.26 The ultimate goal of improving information management and access is simple,
yet profound. The better information we have about the environment, the better basis
we will have for wise decision-making. The more information we have about the
environmental behavior of all our institutions, the more incentives there will be for
environmental responsibility.
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Desired State
+ All stakeholders have easy access to accurate, understandable information
necessary for making informed environmental decisions.
+ Environmental information is effectively used for decision-making and
performance management.
+ Environmental information is fully integrated and efficiently managed,
and is seamlessly exchanged among all stakeholders.
+ Environmental indicators are fully developed as the primary gauge of
system health, and are effectively integrated with other environmental
information.
Opportunities for EPA
Expand EPA'S Information Role. Focus EPA efforts far more strongly
on environmental education and disseminating information to the general public and
other stakeholders. Discuss priorities for improving information management and access
with a wide range of stakeholders. Build on current practices with proven effectiveness.
For example:
+ EPA's recently announced Environmental Indicators Initiative.
+ The Technical Assistance Grant process at Superfund sites is an effective
model of working with the public to share information.
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+ ENVIROMAPPER, which offers information on air and water emissions,
and facilities in and out of compliance, could be made much more
accessible and user friendly to people outside EPA.
+ Expand community information access programs, such as Windows to the
Environment, to invite the public to participate in the collection and
analysis of real time information.
Invest in Geospatial Technologies. Incorporate geospatial
technologies into EPA's regulatory, rulemaking, and compliance procedures. As part of
this effort, develop a cross-Agency policy to embrace performance-based equivalent
measurement technologies. EPA has completed a year and one-half long study of GIS,
GPS, remote sensing and visualization tools for monitoring, measuring and mapping
environmental impacts. Currently, EPA is assessing where these technologies can help
business sectors. As this review process is completed, EPA should develop a blueprint for
bringing these technologies into full use.
Improve Information Coordination. Expand EPA's ongoing
information coordination role, engaging state, tribal and local regulators and other
entities involved in environmental monitoring and incorporate their information into
unified databases. EPA should also expand its programs that standardize and share
environmental data with other nations and multilateral institutions.
Monitor Innovations in Sensing Technology. Monitor fast-
moving developments in sensor technology (biosensors, chemical noses, micro electro-
mechanical systems (MEMS), nanomaterial-based sensors, etc.) that promise to make
inexpensive, miniaturized, ultra-sensitive sensors widely available for detecting
environmental contaminants.
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Perfect Integrated Monitoring Strategies. Concurrent with
innovations in sensing technology, EPA should promote the development and testing of
integrated monitoring strategies that allow "total human exposure" assessments to all
pollutants across all media, effectively taking into account synergistic effects of multi-
pollutant and multi-media exposures.
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ECONOMICS AND COMMERCE
Forecast and Context
Ecosystems are the foundation of economic enterprise. Natural and managed
ecosystems provide many familiar and marketable goods such as: crops, seafood, livestock,
forage, timber, natural fibers, biomass fuels, and many pharmaceutical and industrial
inputs. Ecosystems also provide a vast array of ecosystem services that are much less
familiar because they are not traded in the marketplace: purifying water, cycling nutrients,
regulating atmospheric composition and climate, dispersing seeds and pollinating plants,
controlling pests, building topsoil, and assimilating and detoxifying society's wastes.
Even the most conservative calculations suggest that the value of these ecosystem
services is greater than today's gross world product.27 Indeed, these services are invaluable,
since without them every economy would permanently collapse. Economic and
environmental well-being are ultimately inseparable. The U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) needs to expand its current efforts to quantify and, whenever possible,
monetize the benefits associated with environmental protection and improvement. A full
cost accounting of all costs and benefits associated with environmental programs is
necessary to support effective and efficient decision-making.
A comprehensive overview of the world's ecosystems prepared by the United
Nations, the World Bank, and the World Resources Institute concluded that, "There are
considerable signs that the capacity of ecosystems, the biological engines of the planet, to
produce many of the goods and services we depend on is rapidly declining."28 The decline
is fastest in some of the world's poorest nations, creating the prospect of future ecological-
economic development failures. Affluent nations face special environmental risks related
to possibilities for terrorism and economic disruption.
Command-and-control policies that use laws, regulations, and standards to
influence behavior are sometimes the only effective way of protecting ecosystem goods
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and services. However, command-and-control approaches have real economic costs
because they tend to deny firms the flexibility to innovate and respond in the most cost
effective manner. As a result, environmental regulations are increasingly being
supplemented by cooperative partnerships and by market-based instruments such as:
taxes, pollution charges, tradable quotas, or pollution emission permits.
In the United States, the amount of consumer waste, particularly in electronic
products, is growing astronomically. It is estimated that 31 million personal computers
will become trash next year, and that number may double by 2007. All of these electronic
goods contain small amounts of toxic substances (including lead, mercury, and heavy
metals) that collectively can become a national environmental problem. The increased
implementation of producer take-back programs, similar to those introduced in Europe,
could help minimize this pending problem. A few states are making modest steps in the
direction of product take-back programs, but much more needs to be done.
A consistent pursuit of ways to align the efficiency of markets with environmental
protection will lead toward a future in which the structure of the economy increasingly
shifts from selling things to selling the "services that things provide." In today's economy,
providers profit by selling more things more often, increasing the "throughput" of energy
and materials through the economy, which is the primary source of environmental
impacts. A shift toward selling the services that things provide changes the incentive
structure for providers and consumers alike, so that both benefit from solutions that are
more energy and materials efficient.
Already some U.S. companies are moving in this direction. For example, Carrier,
the world's largest manufacturer of air conditioners, is experimenting with selling
"comfort services" rather than air conditioners. This shift creates a situation where the
best way for Carrier to boost its profits, and give its customers more comfort at lower cost,
is to increase the energy efficiency and durability of its equipment. Similarly, Dow is
shifting toward providing "pesticide services" and carpet manufacturer Interface is selling
"floor covering services" rather than carpets. In fact, Interface actually retains ownership
of the floor covering product and recovers worn product from its customers' facilities for
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reprocessing into its next generation of product. In each case, both provider and customer
profit from minimizing rather than maximizing the flow of energy and materials.
Fostering this shift in business strategy and economic structure may be the most effective
way to speed the emergence of environmentally advanced technologies.
Desired State
+ Effective protection of the capacity of ecosystems to produce valuable
goods and services through sustainable global development and
restoration of damaged ecosystems. A large middle class emerges in all
developing nations, with rapid growth in resource productivity, jobs,
wages, capital, savings, profits, knowledge and education, combined with
rapid declines in poverty, waste, and pollution.
+ Integrative policies treat the goals of economic growth, environmental
protection, and social equity as mutually reinforcing, and recognize
environmental justice as an essential component of social equity.
+ Prevention of ecological-economic development failures in poor nations,
with cooperative international actions to respond to emergency situations.
+ More effective use of market-based instruments, voluntary agreements,
and partnerships to achieve environmental objectives without impeding
commercial transactions or incurring unnecessary costs. The economic
consequences of environmental actions are well understood.
+ A widespread shift from selling things to selling the "services that things
provide."
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Opportunities for EPA
Support International Policy Coordination. Support the
development of an over-arching legal instrument or forum, such as the United Nations
Commission on Sustainable Development, to review and verify attainment of global
environmental goals in an integrated manner.
Provide Alerts on Substandard International Environmental
Practices. Cooperate with international environmental organizations to identify high
environmental risk manufacturing practices and to minimize the potential for migration
of such practices to developing and economically-stressed regions.
Assist in Preventing Ecological-Economic Development
Failures. Cooperate with the Department of State, the United Nations Development
Programme, and other appropriate organizations to develop a capability to identify
serious environmental problems that could lead to conflicts or ecological-economic
failures in developing nations. In partnership with other national and international
organizations, develop capabilities for providing economic support, environmental
restoration, and assistance in health infrastructure development to help nations avoid or
deal with crises.
Support U.S. Industry Contingency Planning. Become a leader in
developing the environmental side of contingency planning, encouraging and supporting
industry to anticipate environmental problems that might occur with a sharp economic
decline, terrorism or natural disasters. EPA sector-based programs can help businesses
identify dangers within particular industrial sectors and understand the potential
environmental and health risks associated with economic stress. Support industry with
national actions, e.g., an underground storage tank trust fund, or bonding arrangements
to ensure for costs of environmental remediation.
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Support Government and Community-Based Emergency
Management Planning. Under the Clean Water Act, broaden emergency
management plans to include terrorist activity. Assure that infrastructure management
systems have adequate contingency plans for acts of terrorism, including ecoterrorism, as
well as other environmental surprises. Provide guidance to other agencies at different
levels of government on reviewing their emergency management plans for environmental
issues.
Improve the Permitting Process to Foster Environmental
Justice. Environmental justice needs to go hand-in-hand with economic development.
To prevent disproportionate impacts to poor and minority communities, modify the
process of permitting new facilities to adequately take into account cumulative and
multimedia impacts of nearby facilities. Identify all sources of emissions, including non-
point sources, and account for health conditions in communities when evaluating risk.
Today, newly permitted facilities might comply with environmental regulations, but may
add significantly to the quantity of pollutants already present and cumulatively create
major health risks.
Expand EPA Product Stewardship and Design for the
Environment Efforts. With technology acceleration and globalization causing a
proliferation of products in U.S. markets, comprehensive testing of their environmental
impacts will not be possible. In order to cope, EPA needs to move up the production
chain to encourage manufacturer product take-back, other product stewardship
arrangements, and a wide range of Design for the Environment approaches. Cooperative
agreements among consumers, government and industry that give businesses more
responsibility for end-of-life management of products create incentives to redesign
products with fewer toxins, making them more durable, reusable and recyclable.
Voluntary partnerships with industry, universities, research institutions, and other
government agencies can help businesses find cost effective ways to bring environmental
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considerations into the design of products, processes, and management systems. Large
corporations can influence the behavior of thousands of smaller companies by writing
quality specifications for their suppliers that keep toxins and materials that cannot be
reused or recycled out of their products. More emphasis on voluntary approaches does
not imply that EPA should give up a product testing role. However, EPA will need to
develop strategies for selecting the most important targets.
Continue to Identify Cost-Effective Environmental
Technologies. EPA should continue to identify and bring to market the best
practices and most cost effective environmental technologies by expanding its
Environmental Technology Verification program (ETV). The ETV program verifies the
performance of commercial-ready environmental technologies, and partners with the U.S.
Agency for International Development (USAID), U.S.-Asia Environmental Partnership
Program (USAEP), and the Department of Commerce.
Co-Sponsor Industry Conferences on "Selling The Services
That Things Provide." The EPA's sector-based programs can partner with industry
associations, universities, environmental organizations, and other stakeholders to hold
conferences for different industry groups on the concept of shifting from selling things to
selling the services things provide. The conferences can feature expert presentations and
reports by industry innovators who have already adopted this approach, and participatory
"how to" working sessions.
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POLITICS AND SOCIAL EVOLUTION
Forecast and Context
Without much fanfare, a historic redistribution of decision-making roles is
underway in many nations today, including the United States. Power is leaking away
from nation states in all directions: upward, downward, and sideways. This pattern of
change will have enormous implications for environmental protection, for better or for
worse. Moreover, the gap between the "haves" and the "have nots" is widening.
According to the World Bank data on poverty, the ratio of global average income of the
top five percent to the bottom five percent has increased from six to 186 in the past 20
years.
The shift upward is related, in large part, to the growth of multinational
corporations and their evolution from loose collections of national firms into truly global
enterprises. Less known, but just as important, is the growing array of international
economic and political institutions. More than 5,900 international governmental
organizations and networks operate today, and many are quite influential in their own
spheres of activity.29
The shift downward is moving some decisions to regional, state, tribal and local
levels. In the United States, this new federalism has been evolving under both Democratic
and Republican administrations. A similar phenomenon is underway in many industrial
nations.
The shift sideways involves a wide array of privatization arrangements and public-
private partnerships. It also includes the growing role that non-governmental
organizations (NGOs) are playing in governance at every level. NGOs bring issues to
attention, propose and influence solutions, and monitor the behavior of corporations,
governments and other entities. They are increasing their influence by linking into
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transnational networks, coordinating their efforts globally, and moving at Internet speed.
The EPA will have to be flexible and adjust to the challenge of working with these
networks because information technology has enabled them to reconfigure alliances
around specific issues.
It is possible to imagine a future where this pattern of change leads to great
improvements in environmental protection. NGOs at every level would focus attention
on environmental problems and suggest solutions. International institutions and
conventions would structure global responses to global problems. Transnational
corporations would transfer environmentally advanced technologies around the world, set
high environmental and social standards for their own operations, and establish
independent monitoring practices. National governments would support global
environmental treaties, make greater use of market-based instruments and voluntary
partnerships, and ensure that state and local governments have the capacity to maintain
standards. State and local governments would react responsively to the conditions they
face, innovate, and share lessons of experience. The lowest level of governance able to
produce the desired result would always have the primary role. Business, government,
and NGOs would have increasingly cooperative, rather than antagonistic, relationships.
Unfortunately, it is also possible to imagine a future where this pattern of change
undermines environmental protection. Key nations could fail to support global treaties
and conventions. Lack of support for the United Nations and other international
institutions would limit their effectiveness. Many global corporations would engage in a
"race to the bottom," moving operations to nations where environmental standards are
weakest. National governments would fail to maintain environmental standards, fail to
accelerate the emergence of environmentally advanced technologies, and fail to ensure that
states, tribes and local governments have the capacity to carry out their delegated
responsibilities. Decisions and actions will determine which way our society evolves today.
Desired State
+ Environmental decision-making takes place at the level most appropriate
to achieve desired results.
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+ The United States consistently approaches environmental protection from
a global perspective, not just a national perspective.
+ Full compliance is maintained with environmental standards at the
national, state and local levels.
+ Distributed and informed decision-making, with effective capacity
building and performance monitoring, allows state, tribal and local
governments to react responsibly to environmental conditions.
Opportunities for EPA
Sustain U.S. Global Participation. Devote far more attention to
improve and support global environmental initiatives and conventions. U.S. participation
in formulating and achieving global environmental objectives needs to be sustained and
consistent. The United States is a major environmental player on the world stage, but not
the director. If our nation is to remain a major player, it has to engage.
Support Information Needs for Greater Transparency and
Accountability. Globalization of digital technologies is creating a radical expansion
of connectivity that allows people to more easily seek and exchange information on a
global scale. NGOs are using these capabilities to seek out information about the
performance of corporations and governments, to share that information widely, and to
coordinate environmental activism more effectively around the world. Over the decades
ahead, all major corporations will come under scrutiny. Society is in the early stages of a
transition phase, from a comparatively opaque, low information state to a high
information state with much greater transparency and accountability. What should it be
like on the other side of this transition when good information on the environmental
performance of all institutions is widely available? What information on environmental
performance needs to be universally collected? What information quality assurance roles
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are necessary? How can redundant reporting requirements on companies be minimized?
What roles can NGOs play best, and what are their information needs? What forms of
involvement will do the most to assure responsible corporate and NGO behavior?
Thoughtful responses to these questions could allow EPA to make extremely important
contributions to domestic and international environmental protection.
Support The Global Reporting Initiative. EPA has given a small level
of financial support to the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), established by the Coalition
for Environmentally Responsible Economies (CERES) in partnership with the United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). EPA should consider expanding this support
and providing it on an ongoing basis. The mission of the GRI is to promote international
harmonization in reporting information on corporate environmental, social and
economic performance. It is being developed with the active participation of
corporations, NGOs, accountancy organizations, business associations, and other
international stakeholders. Twenty-one pilot companies, including major U.S. firms such
as Baxter International, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Ford, General Motors, Proctor & Gamble,
and Sunoco, have tested and improved initial draft reporting guidelines. By 2002,
participants hope to establish the GRI as a permanent, independent, international body
with a multi-stakeholder governance structure.
Expand EPA's Role in Regional, State and Tribal Capacity
Building. Expand EPA's role in capacity building to ensure that EPA regions, and the
state and tribal governments they serve, have the skills needed to carry out their delegated
responsibilities. Then ensure that states, tribes and regions are given the maximum
authority and independence that can be delegated.
Improve Capacity to Track State and Tribal Environmental
Performance. Identify gaps and improve EPA's capability to track the performance
of state and tribal governments with delegated authority for EPA functions. Support
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THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA SECTION
ongoing efforts of the Results-Based Initiative to integrate EPA and state performance
information. This will require significant improvements in compliance reporting and
better performance measures. While EPA has developed some abilities to measure inputs
and outputs, it currently lacks a systematic method for assessing the effectiveness and
efficiency of its major program activities.
Reinstate Federal Oversight Capacity for Distressed State
Programs. EPA should fulfill its responsibility to help failing state-delegated programs
to attain established environmental objectives and carry out major program
responsibilities.
Create New Opportunities for NGO and Stakeholder Input.
Throughout EPA, establish new mechanisms that reach out to NGOs and other
organizations, establish new relationships with a broader range of stakeholders, and
provide them with formal opportunities for input. Key areas for soliciting input include
stakeholder views on priority problem areas and suggestions for improving EPA's
strategies, services and operations.
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SECTION IV
CONCLUSIONS
The National Advisory Council for Environment Policy and Technology
(NACEPT) developed this report in an effort to play a more active, strategic role in
advising the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Through this process,
NACEPT gained insight into the commitment, skills and resources involved in futures
planning. While NACEPT at times struggled with questions of process, it made great
strides in understanding what works, and what does not work, in creating an
environmental foresight radar. It is important to note, however, that these are still first
steps and much more can be done.
NACEPT looks forward to continuing this work with the EPA Administrator and
in partnering with the program offices that have worked so hard to initiate and lead
strategic and futures planning. We hope that with this report, EPA will select specific
emerging challenges and opportunities and return to NACEPT for further consultation.
We look forward to EPA's response to this report and to future efforts to scan the
environmental horizon.
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SECTION V
SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS
In developing the recommendations contained in this report, the National
Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology (NACEPT) recognized that
many require coordination with, or action by, agencies beyond EPA. NACEPT has
divided the Opportunities for EPA into the following categories:
A. Immediate: Those that appear to be both technically feasible and within the
scope of EPA's mission, and could be implemented immediately through
commitment of appropriate resources.
B. Mid-Term: Those that appear to be technically feasible in the near future, but
may lie outside the scope of EPA's mission and/or require coordination with other
agencies.
C. Long-Term: Those that require substantial research and development and/or
coordination with other agencies prior to implementation, but offer long-term
rewards.
A. IMMEDIATE OPPORTUNITIES
World Population and Demographics
+ Raise domestic awareness of the importance of sustainable development.
+ Facilitate export of environmentally superior technologies through
revitalization of the Environmental Trade Workgroup of the Trade
Promotion Coordination Committee.
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SECTION V SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS
Natural Resources - Energy
+ Expand the Energy-Star Program broadly across all consumer product
sectors.
+ Establish a Green Vehicle Labeling Program to identify automobiles that
are both energy efficient and manufactured using environmentally
friendly components and processes.
Natural Resources - Water
+ Integrate water efficiency with water quality standards and other
regulations.
+ Expedite the pending Pretreatment Streamlining Initiative in the Office of
Water to address water quality/water efficiency conflicts in the effluent
guidelines programs.
Natural Resources - Biodiversity, Land, and Food
+ Enhance the use of Supplemental Environmental Projects in pending and
future enforcement actions to encourage land conservation and
restoration efforts.
Natural Resources - Air
+ Follow up the Office of Air and Radiation's report "Healthy Buildings,
Healthy People" with a national voluntary partnership for a toxin-free
indoor environment.
Science and Technology
+ Move beyond Project XL with new, simplified regulatory relief strategies
to spur superior environmental performance and technological
innovation.
+ Lead by example with a clear, Agency-wide commitment to
environmental excellence, beginning with the EPA Strategic Plan.
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THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA SECTION V
Information Management and Access
+ Expand EPA's information role through increased focus on delivering
environmental education to the public.
Economics and Commerce
+ Continue to identify cost-effective, emerging environmental technologies
through the Environmental Technology Verification program.
+ Support disaster preparedness by state and local governments,
communities, and U.S. industry through development and delivery of
comprehensive vulnerability assessment tools, and resources to implement
effective contingency plans.
+ Expand EPA's product stewardship and Design for the Environment efforts
to ensure the development of environmentally responsible products and
services.
Politics and Social Evolution
+ Enhance EPA's own capacity to track state and tribal environmental
performance to accurately assess the effectiveness of its major programs.
+ Enhance the capacity of EPA regional offices and states to effectively carry
out their delegated program responsibilities, including providing
compliance assistance to regulated entities.
+ Promptly reinstate federal oversight capacity for distressed state programs
where states fail to fulfill delegated program obligations or consistently fail
to attain environmental objectives.
+ Engage NGOs and other non-traditional stakeholders in identifying
effective community-based approaches to environmental protection.
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SECTION V SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS
B. MID-TERM OPPORTUNITIES
World Population and Demographics
+ Elevate EPA's international role in providing credible information on the
environmental, economic and social impacts of population growth and
consumption, and in supporting global sustainable development
networks.
Natural Resources - Energy
+ Encourage development of total cost accounting for energy technologies
to facilitate responsible energy development.
+ Spur investment in renewable energy resources and energy efficient
technologies through Clean Air Act State Implementation Plans.
+ Promote market-oriented policies and programs for reducing greenhouse
gas emissions.
+ Demonstrate methane-to-hydrogen conversion and hydrogen energy
technologies at publicly-owned treatment works.
Natural Resources - Water
+ Develop a holistic approach to water and the environment, working with
EPA, other federal agencies, and non-government stakeholders.
+ Redouble efforts to effectively include non-point sources in water
management programs.
Natural Resources - Biodiversity, Land, and Food
+ Continue to develop partnerships with state agencies responsible for
wildlife preservation and biodiversity protection.
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THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA SECTION V
Natural Resources - Air
+ Develop a multi-pollutant approach to address air emissions from diffuse
sources.
Science and Technology
+ Marshal sound science in developing and defending environmental
standards.
Information Management and Access
+ Expand EPA's information coordination role with state and local
regulatory partners and other entities performing environmental
monitoring.
+ Invest in and incorporate geospatial technologies into EPA's rulemaking,
regulatory and compliance procedures.
Economics and Commerce
+ Implement a global alert system to identify high environmental risk
manufacturing processes to minimize migration of these practices to
economically vulnerable nations and communities.
+ Integrate cumulative risk assessment into EPA and state permitting
processes to foster environmental justice.
Politics and Social Evolution
+ Support the Global Reporting Initiative pilot projects currently being
tested at major multinational corporations.
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SECTION V SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS
C. LONG-TERM OPPORTUNITIES
World Population and Demographics
+ Establish an "Envirocorps" to complement the international aid efforts of
the Peace Corps.
Natural Resources - Energy
+ Support innovative research on sequestering carbon in energy production.
+ Encourage research and development of hydrogen as a primary energy
carrier.
+ Partner with the Department of Energy (DOE) on the new Freedom Car
project that will develop hydrogen fuel celled motor vehicles in the next
ten years.
Natural Resources - Water
+ Support an effective market environment to minimize generation of
hazardous waste through pollution prevention, source reduction, and
other initiatives.
Natural Resources - Biodiversity, Land, and Food
+ Develop comprehensive biodiversity indicators as primary indicators of
ecological health.
+ Expand domestic and global efforts to identify and control invasive
species.
+ Sponsor research on the benefits and costs of higher density community
development.
+ Assess the ecological and economic impacts of rising sea levels resulting
from global warming.
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THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE: EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPA SECTION V
+ Advocate environmentally advanced agriculture practices.
+ Develop a national strategy to address the public health impacts of
antibiotics, hormones, and other food additives in food production.
Natural Resources - Air
+ Re-establish an advanced automotive technology partnership.
+ Support research and development for advanced transit systems, including
commercial vehicles.
+ Support research on ultra-clean coal technology.
Science and Technology
+ Create investment partnerships for energy efficiency.
+ Identify and promote environmentally beneficial developments in
biotechnology and nanotechnology.
Information Management and Access
+ Monitor and promote the use of new sensing technologies in
environmental monitoring.
+ Perfect integrated monitoring technologies that allow "total human
exposure" assessments to multimedia and multi-pollutant exposures.
Economics and Commerce
+ Support the development of an international legal instrument to review
and verify environmental performance.
+ Assist in preventing ecological and economic development failures.
+ Encourage conversion through informational outreach from a "goods"
economy to one that provides the services that these goods provide.
Politics and Social Evolution
+ Support U.S. participation in global environmental initiatives and
conventions.
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ATTACHMENT A
Charge to the
National Advisory Council for
Environmental Policy and Technology
Emerging Trends and Issues Workgroup
Background
In 1999, the National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and
Technology (NACEPT) undertook a tenth anniversary study to evaluate its impact and
effectiveness, and to chart a course for its future by identifying ways to better serve the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The study recommended that NACEPT
become proactive and operate strategically to identify policy issues for the Council to
address. EPA agreed that NACEPT can play a valuable strategic role and encouraged the
Council to identify areas where NACEPT believes stakeholder input would aid EPA
decisionmakers.
A March 2000 NACEPT planning session, and the Reinvention Action Council
(RAC) meeting in June 2000, resulted in discussions about NACEPT's new role as an
anticipatory and visionary body. The Council agreed to help EPA with the conceptual
design of a process for identifying emerging issues affecting EPA over the next five to ten
years.
Committee Charge
The Emerging Trends and Issues Workgroup agreed to use a two-pronged
approach to become a more strategic and visionary body. First, NACEPT will identify a
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process to enhance EPA's (and/or NACEPT's) ability to identify emerging trends and
issues that will affect EPA over the next five to ten years. Second, NACEPT will identify
emerging issues and trends, assign priorities, and prepare issue papers for presentation to
the NACEPT Council. The initial work of the group will focus on the following
activities:
+ Produce an interim report of emerging issues and trends.
+ Organize proposed emerging topics into overarching themes.
+ Dialog with a futurist to help identify and prioritize significant issues and
trends.
+ Identify models used by corporations with units dedicated to examining
future events and trends.
+ Invite EPA representatives to give presentations on the historical
perspective of EPA's strategic planning process and the budgetary analysis
of core issues.
+ Recognize that the identification of emerging trends and issues is an
evolving process.
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ATTACHMENT B
Endnotes
United Nations Population Fund, "The State of the World Population 1995,"
(New York: 1993).
2Military Health System, U.S. Department of Defense, "Toward A New
Enterprise," (Washington, D.C.: 1999, 2-3).
Population Information Program, Johns Hopkins University School of Public
Health, "Population Growth and Urbanization: Cities at the Forefront," published in
Istanbul + 5 preview edition of Population Reports, (Baltimore: 2001).
4World Health Organization [WHO], "Health and the Environment in
Sustainable Development - Five Years After the Earth Summit," (Geneva: 1997).
5James Hansen et al., "Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An
Alternative Scenario," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, (16 June 2000, 1-6).
6Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart, eds., Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,
2000).
7Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Arnulf Grubler, and Alan McDonald, eds., Global Energy
Perspectives, (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998).
8Seth Dunn, "Decarbonizing the Energy Economy," Worldwatch Institute, State of
the World2001, (Washington, D.C.: 2001, 91).
9Jesse H. Ausubel, "The Liberation of the Environment," Daedalus, (125(3),
Summer 1996, 1-17).
10Ibid.
"Ibid.
12World Resources Institute, World Resources 2000-2001, (Washington, D.C.:
World Resources Institute, 2000, 110).
13
Ibid.
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14Ibid. See also "Global Trends 2015," Washington Central Intelligence Agency,
2000.
15World Water Council, "World's Rivers in Crisis," press release, (Washington,
D.C.: 29 November 1999).
16Sandra Postel, "Forging a Sustainable Water Strategy," in State of the World 1996,
(Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, 1996, 40-59).
17Groundwater statistic from United Nations Environment Programme,
"Groundwater: A Threatened Resource," (Nairobi: 1996, p. 7); river water statistic from
Igor A. Shiklomanov, World Water Resources, (Paris: International Hydrological Program,
United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization, 1998, 6).
18Robert T Watson, et al., Protecting Our Planet, Securing Our Future,
(Washington, D.C.: United Nations Environment Programme, U.S. National
Aeronautics and Space Administration, and The World Bank, 1998, 16-30).
19Bjorn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the
World, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001).
20"Global Warming and Terrestrial Biodiversity Decline," World Wildlife Fund,
2001.
21Warren Richey, "Showdown Over $7.8 Billion Plan to Restore the Everglades,"
Christian Science Monitor, July 2, 1999.
22Gary Gardner, "Preserving Global Cropland," in State of the World 1997,
(Washington: Worldwatch Institute, 1997, 58).
23Seth Dunn, Carbon Emissions Continue Decline in Vital Signs 2001
(Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, 2001, 52).
24Estimate based on statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA), "Oil,
Gas, Coal and Electricity Quarterly Statistics," second quarter (Paris: Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)/IEA, 2000, 400-401, 446-447).
25U.S. EPA, "Healthy Buildings, Healthy People: A Vision for the 21st Century,"
2001.
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26President's Council on Sustainable Development, "Sustainable America: A New
Consensus," (Washington, D.C.: 1996, 62).
27Robert Costanza et al., "The Value of the World's Ecosystem Services and
Natural Capital," Nature, Vol. 387, 1997, 259.
28Robert T. Watson, et al, "Protecting Our Planet, Securing Our Future,"
(Washington, D.C., United Nations Environment Programme, U.S. National
Aeronautics and Space Administration and the World Bank, 1998).
29Ann M. Florini, The Third Force: The Rise of Transnational Civil Society,
(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.: 2000).
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